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Best and Worst ETFs of Last Week | Global markets turned wobbly last week on the outbreak of the deadly SARS-like coronavirus in China.Authorities in China reported to start the week that about 140 new cases of coronavirus have been found, according to Reuters. By Jan 26, the death toll was 80 among 2744 cases. What’ s more, there were 17 cases confirmed in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Rest of Asia, Europe, North America and Australia have confirmed cases of 26, 3, 6 and 4, respectively ( read: Sector ETFs & Stocks to Gain/Lose on Coronavirus Outbreak).
The spread of the disease shook the global market as several leisure and airlines stocks took a hit. Materials stocks also suffered as China is a key consumer of the metal and remains an industrial hub. Oil prices retreated too on slowdown worries. The S & P 500 ( down 0.8%), the Dow Jones ( down 1.12%) and the Nasdaq ( down 0.5%) — were all in the red last week.
Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few ETF winners and losers of the last week.
Top-Performing ETFs
Volatility – iPath Series B S & P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX – Up 6.9%
The S & P 500 fell about 1% on Jan 24, marking its biggest drop in about four months. Volatility crept up in the marketwith the equity market’ s “ fear gauge, ” the Cboe Volatility Index, gained for four sessions in a row to the highest since Dec 30.
Treasury Bonds – PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund ZROZ – Up 4.4%
The benchmark treasury yields dropped to 1.70% on Jan 24 versus 1.84% on Jan 17 thanks to the safe-haven rally. This, in turn, boosted the Treasury bond market.
Inverse Equity ETFs – AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF DWSH – Up 4.4%
The AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF is actively managed with an investment focus that involves buying securities that have appreciated in price more than the other securities in the investment universe and holding them until they underperform.
Gold Miner – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX – Up 2.8%
The virus outbreak brightened the appeal of the safe-haven metal gold. Since mining stocks act as a leveraged play of the underlying metal, this mining ETF outdid last week. The underlying NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index tracks the overall performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry ( read: 10 ETFs for 2020).
Worst-Performing ETFs
Energy – SPDR S & P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP – down 8.6%
The virus event flared up global growth worries, especially with China being the world's second-largest oil consumer. United States Oil Fund LP ( USO) lost 6.6% last week and hurt this oil and gas fund.
China Technology – KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF KWEB – down 8%
Most Chinese stocks were battered last week with this high-beta Internet ETF being one of the top losers.
Copper Miner – Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX – down 7.7%
Copper miners bore the brunt too as China is a huge consumer of copper. COPX lost 1.2% on Jan 24 ( read: NAFTA Gone, USMCA In: ETFs in Focus).
Shipping – Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF BDRY – down 8%
Along with several travel stocks, shipping companies lost too. The fund’ s underlying Capesize 5TC Index, Panamax 4TC Index & Supramax 6TC Index measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.
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Zacks ' free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week. Get it free > >
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF ( GDX): ETF Research Reports PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF ( ZROZ): ETF Research Reports iPath Series B S & P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ( VXX): ETF Research Reports Global X Copper Miners ETF ( COPX): ETF Research Reports SPDR S & P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ( XOP): ETF Research Reports AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF ( DWSH): ETF Research Reports KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ( KWEB): ETF Research Reports Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF ( BDRY): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
Could A More Significant Volatility Breakout Be Underway? | This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com.
In a market that has been steadily climbing despite impeachment proceedings against President Trump, a roller-coaster ride due to tariffs and a trade war with China, and generalized global uncertainty, volatility has become relatively complacent.
The VIX or CBOE Volatility Index, which is commonly referred to as the `` fear gauage '', and is used by many traders and analysts as a measure of how carefree investors are, has been moving toward 12, and bouncing back up, causing periodic disruptions to stocks in this long running bull market since November. Since last week the VIX has bounced 32%, corresponding to a drop in stocks, as investors express concern over the Chinese coronavirus, which shows new cases daily.
Friday is a good example of this effect, with stocks and oil plummeting as the VIX spikes higher.
On top of the coronavirus fears, Ed Tilly, the chief executive officer of Cboe Global Markets Inc. noted at a luncheon in New York on Thursday, that there is elevated demand for protection around important dates in the primary campaign and general vote showing up in the term structure of implied volatility, which also is reflected in the VIX.
In 30 years at the premier U.S. options exchange, Tilly said he has yet to see an election with more anxiety than the 2020 presidential race.
“ The demand for hedging and hedging vehicles is really amazing, ” Tilly explained. It’ s “ unprecedented ” this early in an election cycle.
Open interest in the October VIX 2020 futures contract has surged since Jan. 8 to reach 5,866. By Super Tuesday in 2016, the October contract’ s open interest was below 400.
Investors who are wary of a VIX breakout could look into alternative asset allocations such as bond ETFs like the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF ( LQD) or a gold ETF like the SPDR Gold MiniShares ( GLDM) and SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD).
However, those who believe the VIX will continue to languish or move lower could explore an ETF such as the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( SVXY), which tracks one-half the inverse ( -0.5x) of the daily performance of VIX futures. Alternatively, they could continue to be long stocks with an ETF like the Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ) for equity exposure, or the SPDR S & P Pharmaceuticals ETF ( XPH), as healthcare has been a top-performing sector.
For more market news and updates, visit ETFtrends.com.
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WeChat now lets you report information on the Wuhan coronavirus | WeChat, China’ s most popular social app, recently launched a function allowing users to report incidents related to epidemics as the country grapples with an | business |
5 ETFs to Protect Your Portfolio From Coronavirus Threat | Coronavirus, a deadly virus which originated in China, has shaken the stock market across the globe. This is especially true as the outbreak of coronavirus — an illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS) — is getting stronger and infection is spreading fast and wide. As such, investors are concerned that this outbreak will turn into a widespread pandemic.Per the latest report from China's National Health Commission, more than 2,000 people have been infected globally with 76 in China killed by the disease. Additionally, the United States registered five cases of coronavirus — two cases in California and one each in Arizona, Illinois and Washington state — and more are expected. Other regions in Southeast Asia and Europe are also witnessing the impact of the deadly virus ( read: Sector ETFs & Stocks to Gain/Lose on Coronavirus Outbreak).Against such a backdrop, we have highlighted five ETFs that could benefit investors’ portfolio. These products could provide some shelter from the crisis and would be in focus in the weeks ahead.SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLDGold is often viewed as a store of value and a hedge against market turmoil. The product tracking this bullion like GLD could be an interesting pick to play in the current market turbulence. The fund tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars, and is kept in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA. It is the ultra-popular gold ETF with AUM of $ 45.3 billion and heavy volume of nearly 9.4 million shares a day. It charges 40 bps in fees per year from investors. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank # 3 ( Hold) with a Medium risk outlook ( read: ETF Strategies to Combat Coronavirus Outbreak).Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Yen is considered a safe-haven currency in times of uncertainty. Investors could tap this via FXY, which appears a great way to play a future rise in the yen relative to the U.S. dollar. It tracks the price of the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar. The fund charges 40 bps a year in fees and sees a moderate volume of roughly 82,000 shares per day. The product has accumulated $ 199.6 million in its asset base and has a Zacks ETF Rank # 3 with a Medium risk outlook.iPath Series B S & P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX This is a popular option providing exposure to volatility that sees truly impressive average volume of about 36.7 million shares a day. The note has amassed $ 934.6 million in AUM and charges 89 bps in fees per year. The ETN focuses on the S & P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, which reflects implied volatility in the S & P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. It provides investors with exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second months of VIX futures contracts.iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLTThe products tracking the long end of the yield curve often provide a safe haven. TLT provides exposure to long-term Treasury bonds by tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. It is one of the most popular and liquid ETFs in the bond space with AUM of $ 18.8 billion and average daily volume of 10.7 million shares. Expense ratio comes in at 0.15%. Holding 38 securities in its basket, the fund focuses on the top credit rating bonds with average maturity of 25.48 years and effective duration of 18.13 years. It has a Zacks ETF Rank # 4 ( Sell) with a High risk outlook ( read: 5 Hot ETF Themes for 2020).SPDR S & P Biotech ETF XBIThe fast-spreading coronavirus has sparked a race among biotech companies, each claiming that its technology can quickly whip up a vaccine to quell a potential crisis. As such, these stocks could see some gains owing to increased demand for drugs or vaccinations. With AUM of $ 4.2 billion, XBI provides equal-weight exposure across biotechnology stocks by tracking the S & P Biotechnology Select Industry Index. It has 0.35% in expense ratio and trades in average daily volume of 4.9 million shares. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank # 2 ( Buy) with a High risk outlook ( read: Top Performing ETFs of the Decade).Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week. Get it free > >
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iPath Series B S & P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ( VXX): ETF Research Reports iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT): ETF Research Reports SPDR S & P Biotech ETF ( XBI): ETF Research Reports SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD): ETF Research Reports Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ( FXY): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
Coca-Cola says it won't ban plastic bottles because consumers like them | As many companies rush to meet promises to replace their plastic packaging, Coca-Cola is not among them.
The company has made sustainability pledges in recent years, but it's not trying to get rid of plastic. Coca-Cola has announced goals for its packaging to be 100% recyclable by 2025, and to make bottles with an average of 50% recycled material by 2030. Greenpeace has been critical of Coca Cola's current plan, saying it doesn't address the urgency of plastic pollution.
Coca-Cola spokeswoman Ann Moore said in an email to Food Dive that packaging waste is a major problem, and Coke recognizes that it has a responsibility to help solve it, but `` all packaging has a potential environmental impact, so it’ s not as simple as saying one format is better than another. ''
Coca-Cola has been criticized heavily for its plastic usage before, and Perez's comments are likely to only fuel critics ' ire. They have already elicited negative reaction.
`` Shame on Coca Cola yet again hiding behind the public instead of taking responsibility for the 120 billion plastic Coke bottles that pollute our planet every year, '' Sian Sutherland, co-founder of A Plastic Planet, told Food Dive in an email. `` People buy what they are sold and it is Coca Cola's job to sell them something different — toxic free and nature safe. ''
Coke's sustainability head's comments contradict with other reports claiming consumers are driving the demand for more alternatives to plastic packaging. And the beverage giant has been recognized as a leading cause of pollution. In 2019, Coke was found to be the most polluting brand for the second year in a row in a global audit of plastic waste by a Break Free from Plastic study. Nestlé was No. 2, followed by PepsiCo.
Coca-Cola, which reportedly produces 3 million tons of plastic packaging annually, has made more sustainable moves in recent years. In 2018, Coca-Cola extended a loan to the Netherlands-based recycling company Ioniqa Technologies to develop the tools to process otherwise hard-to-recycle types of PET plastics. PET is one of the most commonly used plastic resins in food and beverage packaging, but recycled PET accounts for only about 12% to 14% of plastic packaging.
Last year, Coca-Cola said it is updating packaging for its Dasani water brand to help reduce plastic waste, and will ensure all Dasani bottles continue to be fully recyclable. A 20-ounce HybridBottle will launch nationwide in mid-2020 made with up to 50% plant-based renewable and recycled PET plastic, and aluminum cans for the brand will expand to the rest of the country this year, the company said.
Interest in more environmentally friendly products has grown substantially in recent years, and many shoppers want to see companies transition their packaging to recycled alternatives. Other big name brands have been working on rolling out alternatives to plastic. Although Perez said that using only aluminum and glass packaging could push up the company's carbon footprint and hurt sales, other companies are making more moves in that vein.
PepsiCo will start packaging its Aquafina water products in aluminum cans this year for foodservice outlets and is testing the change in retail. Smaller water brands, such as Vita Coco's Ever & Ever, are also using aluminum. About 75% of aluminum produced in the U.S. is still in use today, according to the Aluminum Association, while plastic bottles are not frequently reused, making it an appealing alternative.
Nestlé has announced a new partnership with Danimer Scientific, a manufacturer of biodegradable plastic products, to develop biodegradable water bottles.
But while it isn't necessarily leaving plastic bottles behind, Coke is continuing its efforts toward more sustainable practices. To make consumers see it that way too, the company may want to focus on what it is doing to help the cause rather than talk about what it isn't going to do.
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With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation.
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach.
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With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation. | general |
Chinese Officials Race to Contain Anger Over Virus | WUHAN, China — The Chinese government scrambled to contain not only the coronavirus epidemic but also growing expressions of public fury over the management of the crisis as the death toll rose on Tuesday to at least 106.
China’ s National Immigration Administration on Tuesday encouraged Chinese citizens to reconsider the timing of overseas travel to curtail the spread of the coronavirus, it said on its WeChat account. That came as the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged American citizens to avoid nonessential travel to China.
Premier Li Keqiang, the prime minister of the Chinese government, flew on Monday into Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, to show support for medical workers and to pledge needed medical supplies — only to be mocked online for leading workers in an encouraging cheer.
Mr. Li’ s visit, which featured prominently in state media, came as Wuhan’ s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, acknowledged that the local authorities had moved too slowly in the first days of the crisis.
In an interview with CCTV, the main state television network, the mayor said that information about the coronavirus had not been shared with the public in a timely manner, and that he and the city’ s Communist Party secretary, Ma Guoqiang, were prepared to resign to “ appease public indignation. ”
“ Our names will live in infamy for shutting the door ” of the city, Mr. Zhou said. “ But we believe that as long as it helps to control the disease, helps keep people’ s lives safe, Comrade Ma Guoqiang and I will shoulder any responsibility, ” Mr. Zhou said.
The offer to resign, which was not immediately acted on, suggested that China’ s harshly practical party hierarchy could settle on local officials like the mayor and the party secretary as sacrifices to ease public ire over a spiraling public health crisis that also threatens to take a large economic toll.
With the death toll rising to at least 106, and infections spreading to still more countries, the impacts reverberated globally. Stocks tumbled and oil prices fell on Monday as the virus’ s spread worried investors worldwide.
The S & P 500 fell 1.6 percent, its sharpest decline in nearly four months, with shares of airlines and companies dependent on tourism from China particularly hard hit. | business |
‘ What if We All Get Sick?’: Coronavirus Strains China’ s Health System | After suffering from a fever and breathing problems for more than 15 days, Xiao Shibing, a 51-year-old resident of Wuhan, China, finally sought help at a hospital. Despite the symptoms, he was not tested for the new coronavirus — a lapse suggesting that there may be far more cases of the virus than are being officially reported.
Instead, Mr. Xiao was told that he had a viral chest infection, so he went back home. As he grew sicker, he went to three other hospitals. But they told him they did not have enough beds.
Like many of the thousands of Chinese patients who are concerned about the new coronavirus, Mr. Xiao is scrambling to get help from a health care system straining to serve even the basic needs of patients.
“ It is like kicking a ball from here to there, ” said his wife, Feng Xiu.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
Mr. Xiao, who was eventually hospitalized on Sunday — about a week after his initial attempt — still hasn’ t been tested for the pneumonialike virus.
As it struggles to combat a coronavirus outbreak that has sickened more than 4,500 people and killed 106, the Chinese government is relying on a medical system that is overburdened and overwhelmed even in normal times. While other parts of everyday life in China have significantly improved in the past decade, the quality of health care has stagnated.
In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, many people have to stand in line in the wee hours of the morning to secure appointments with doctors. When they do get an appointment, patients get only a couple of minutes with a doctor. During flu season, residents set up camp overnight with blankets in hospital corridors.
China does not have a functioning primary care system, so most people flock to hospitals. On an ordinary day, doctors are frustrated and exhausted as they see as many as 200 patients.
Those weaknesses are most pronounced in the poorer areas of China — like Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus. Panicked residents of the city are heading to the hospitals if they have any sign of a cold or cough. Videos circulating on Chinese social media show doctors straining to handle the enormous workload and hospital corridors loaded with patients, some of whom appear to be dead.
Despite having dealt with the SARS coronavirus nearly two decades ago, many Chinese hospitals in smaller cities are not fully prepared to deal with a major outbreak like the current virus. Wuhan hospitals have posted messages online urgently appealing for medical equipment. The situation is even more desperate in poorer, rural areas nearby. | business |
Kobe Bryant’ s Death Cuts Short a Budding Business Career | U.S. stock futures are down sharply this morning on fears about the coronavirus outbreak. More below. ( Want this in your inbox each morning? Sign up here.)
The death of Kobe Bryant, the retired L.A. Lakers star, his 13-year-old daughter and seven others in a helicopter crash yesterday has stirred up grief across the sports world. It also had corporate leaders lamenting the loss of an up-and-coming business mogul.
Mr. Bryant was one of the greatest N.B.A. players, with five championship rings and 18 All-Star selections in 20 seasons.
But he was building a business empire, too:
• He started the investment firm Bryant Stibel in 2013 with the Web.com founder Jeff Stibel. Bryant Stibel has invested in companies like Dell, Alibaba and Epic Games, the maker of Fortnight.
• He also invested in Bodyarmor, a sports drink maker in which Coke later bought a stake to compete against Gatorade.
• And he founded Granity Studios, a media company.
“ I got tired of telling people I loved business as much as I did basketball because people would look at me like I had three heads, ” Mr. Bryant told ESPN in 2017. “ But I do. ”
The crash raises questions about the increasing use of helicopters for business travel. Aaron Mak of Slate notes that the number of civilian helicopters has grown 30 percent since 2006, and that choppers tend to crash more frequently than other aircraft.
What the business world said about Mr. Bryant:
• The venture capitalist Chris Sacca: “ Not sure I will ever know anyone else with his work ethic. ”
• The Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian: “ He still believed he had work to do. ”
U.S. stock futures are down sharply this morning, as the death toll of the coronavirus outbreak continues to rise and pressure grows on China’ s political leaders and its economy.
Here’ s the latest:
• The S & P 500 looks set to open 56 points lower, while the Dow may open down 474 points.
• The number of deaths currently stands at 80, and infections have been reported worldwide.
• It’ s still unclear how the outbreak began, since some patients never visited the seafood market in Wuhan where it is thought to have originated.
Questions have arisen over Beijing’ s strategy of quarantining more cities in central China. Public health experts have asked whether the travel restrictions are limiting medical care.
President Xi Jinping has sought public shows of decisive action, including convening an extraordinary session of the Communist Party’ s top political body. But “ many Chinese remain unconvinced the government is being completely forthcoming about the toll of the disease, ” Steven Lee Myers and Chris Buckley of the NYT write.
And Chinese consumer spending continues to drop, according to James Areddy of the WSJ, with potentially negative consequences for China’ s economy. If the outbreak continues past March, economic growth might fall past a psychologically important level of 6 percent for the first quarter, according to analysts at Société Générale.
An investor group led by Saudi Arabia’ s sovereign wealth fund is said to be in talks to buy the British soccer club Newcastle United for about $ 445 million, according to the WSJ and the FT. It could mean another team with well-heeled owners willing to spend millions to chase success.
The current state of play:
• Saudi Arabia’ s Public Investment Fund is working with the financier Amanda Staveley and the billionaires David and Simon Reuben.
• The Saudis would own 80 percent of Newcastle in any such deal. Ms. Staveley and the Reubens would split the remainder.
Why Newcastle? It’ s one of the better-known English Premier League soccer teams, with stellar attendance at matches. And its current owner, Mike Ashley, has been criticized for not spending enough on players.
The Saudis have been investing in businesses outside the Middle East to diversify their country’ s economy away from oil. The sovereign fund, known as P.I.F., has taken stakes in companies like Uber and Tesla.
The question is how much the Saudis are prepared to spend on Newcastle. Abu Dhabi propelled Manchester City to the heights of the Premier League by spending heavily on the team, while Qatar has done something similar with Paris Saint-Germain.
Britain is reportedly expected to give Huawei a limited role in its 5G network this week, George Parker and Nic Fildes of the FT report. That could set up a fight with the Trump administration, which views the Chinese tech giant as a security threat.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to approve the use of Huawei products in “ noncore ” parts of the next-generation wireless network, after British intelligence officials said that they could “ contain ” any risks of using its technology. And Mr. Johnson’ s government is considering imposing a cap on Huawei’ s potential market share.
Trump administration officials have repeatedly warned foreign governments that Huawei poses a security threat. The U.S. has sought to impose ever-tighter restrictions on the Chinese company, and has argued that it’ s impossible to stop the Chinese from infiltrating a network that uses Huawei equipment.
But British officials reportedly feel they have little choice, given Huawei’ s technological prowess and a lack of alternatives.
Professor Christensen, whose 1997 book “ The Innovator’ s Dilemma ” became a touchstone text for the business world, died on Thursday. He was 67.
His thesis was that “ the factors that helped the best companies succeed — listening responsively to customers, investing aggressively in technology products that satisfied customers’ next-generation needs — were the exact same reasons some of these companies failed, ” writes Glenn Rifkin of the NYT.
Successful entrepreneurs could miss out on the next big thing by focusing on their current customers and remaining married to their once-disruptive products. Professor Christensen published and spoke extensively about his findings, including at DealBook’ s Playing for the Long Term conference in 2016.
Business leaders embraced his work. Andy Grove, a former C.E.O. of Intel, said soon after “ The Innovator’ s Dilemma ” published that it was the most important book he had read in a decade.
Adam Grant, a Wharton professor and fellow sage for the business world, offered this assessment: “ His most disruptive innovation was reminding us not to overinvest in careers and underinvest in people. ”
More: How direct-to-consumer companies like Dollar Shave Club shook up the world of retail.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stirred up controversy last week when he said that the climate change activist Greta Thunberg should take a college economics class. But Ms. Thunberg found a supporter in Mr. Mnuchin’ s wife, Louise Linton.
“ I stand with Greta on this issue. ( I don’ t have a degree in economics either), ” Ms. Linton, a Hollywood actor and producer who is a public supporter of animal rescue organizations, wrote in an Instagram post on Saturday.
Ms. Linton later deleted the post, and then posted to her Instagram Story defending herself, writes William Cummings of USA Today. “ I am not my husband, ” she wrote to one critic. “ I happen to love Greta. Whatever he says has nothing to do with my views or opinions. ”
Deals
• Reporters at The Chicago Tribune really want someone to buy out their newspaper’ s current owner. ( NYT)
• California regulators are becoming a big hurdle for T-Mobile in its quest to buy Sprint. ( WSJ)
• Big investment banks are walking away from Chinese companies seeking to go public on Wall Street. ( FT)
Politics and policy
• In an unpublished draft of his coming book, the former national security adviser John Bolton directly linked President Trump’ s withholding of aid to Ukraine to his desire for investigations into Democrats. ( NYT)
• Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned E.U. officials not to move forward with a proposed carbon tax. ( FT)
Tech
• Amazon employees openly criticized the company’ s environmental practices, defying a company policy against unauthorized public criticism about its businesses. ( WaPo)
• The London police said they plan to start using facial-recognition technology, overriding privacy concerns. ( NYT)
• Content moderators at a Facebook facility in Europe have reportedly been asked to sign a form acknowledging that the job may cause PTSD. ( FT)
Best of the rest
• “ How Under Armour Lost Its Edge ” ( NYT)
• Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia reportedly courted Jeff Bezos on business matters before an alleged hack of the Amazon chief’ s phone. ( WSJ)
• German prosecutors are said to be investigating payments by Deutsche Bank to win the business of a Saudi royal. ( FT)
• Where Prince Charles of Britain’ s personal fortune comes from. ( NYT)
We’ d love your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to business @ nytimes.com. | business |
Global markets slide on back of coronavirus concerns in China | Financial markets around the world have been rocked as an exodus of foreign workers from China intensified fears over the impact of the coronavirus on the world’ s second largest economy.
Major global companies have begun pulling staff from the province of Hubei at the hear of the outbreak or imposed travel restrictions on staff across Asia, telling any workers who visited the region to stay at home.
Global shares slid despite the Chinese authorities stepping up their response, with more than 2,700 cases and 81 deaths confirmed.
The FTSE 100 closed down by more than 2%, or 174 points, at 7,412 and other European markets sustained heavy losses as concerns increased over China’ s economy as it attempts to bounce back from its long-running trade conflict with the US.
Shares dropped on Wall Street and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by about 400 points, tumbling from record high levels recorded earlier this year.
It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
China’ s national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 6 April, more than 1.25m people have been infected in more than 180 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
There have been over 69,500 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 15,800 fatalities, and there have been over 12,600 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 335,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.
More than 264,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.
The French automotive group Peugeot said it was working to evacuate 38 international employees and their families from Hubei, where it has three production sites. Other companies, including the banking firm Standard Chartered, imposed travel bans to the city of Wuhan. Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, also restricted travel, while HSBC said it was closely monitoring the situation for the safety of its employees.
In a signal of the impact on international business, Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank, sent staff in Hong Kong a memo telling them to work from home and not to travel to its headquarters in the city if they had visited the mainland in the last 14 days. According to the Financial Times, the bank is also offering temperature checks at its main office.
Standard Chartered, which is based in London but makes most of its profits and has most of its staff in Asia, is reducing face-to-face working in China and Hong Kong alongside its travel restrictions. It is also offering training on disinfecting and deep-cleansing buildings, teaching staff to recognise symptoms, and providing masks and hand sanitisers.
Luxury goods makers with significant sales in China and Asia plunged on financial markets across Europe, including Burberry and LVMH. Such firms would usually stand to benefit from a rise in sales from the lunar new year celebrations last Saturday.
Airlines and hotel groups, which could face losses because of travel bans, came under heavy selling pressure, while mining firms that have benefited from China’ s manufacturing boom in recent years also fell in value.
Anglo American and Glencore also suffered, while the price of a barrel of oil fell by around 3% to below $ 60 amid concerns that the outbreak could exacerbate an economic slowdown in China and the rest of the world.
Joshua Mahony, a senior market analyst at the financial trading group IG, said: “ The further this virus spreads, the worse it will be for Chinese economic output. We are also seeing commodity stocks slump, with the prospect of a decline in Chinese growth hurting expectations of demand in the sector. ”
Safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds jumped. Chinese financial markets were closed for the lunar new year, while Bloomberg reported that stock markets in the country could remain closed until at least next Monday as Beijing grapples with the worsening crisis.
Comparisons with the 2003 Sars outbreak have highlighted the potential for a prolonged process that could damage economic growth.
After the Sars outbreak, China’ s annual GDP growth fell to 9.1% in the second quarter of 2003 from 11.1% in the previous three-month period, as the government imposed travel restrictions. However, GDP growth recovered to 10% in the second half of 2003.
This time around, the Chinese economy is much larger and more connected to the global economy. However, analysts said the government response to the coronavirus outbreak appeared to be tougher and more transparent, which could help limit the impact.
Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said Chinese GDP growth would be significantly damaged by the outbreak. Rail passenger numbers on Saturday, the first day of the lunar new year, were 42% lower than on the equivalent day in 2019 and road passengers 25% lower. The declines in May 2003, the peak month of the Sars outbreak, were 57% and 45% respectively.
“ Even if the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control quicker than Sars was in 2003, the economic impact now looks likely to be of at least a similar scale, ” he said. | general |
Coronavirus fears send stocks lower—Cramer, other pros react | Fears around China's coronavirus outbreak are in full force.
The concern put meaningful pressure on the major averages Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing its worst one-day performance since October and turning negative for the year in the trading session. The declines followed confirmations of more cases of the virus and several large U.S. companies ' suspension of their business in China.
Professional market watchers and commentators, including CNBC's Jim Cramer, were largely in agreement that the stock market's pain wouldn't last long.
Here's how they're interpreting the latest pullback:
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisory's chief investment officer, called on investors to put the outbreak in perspective:
`` I 'm of the opinion that, come springtime, this sort of dies out. So, the economic impact is obviously immediate rather than anything long-lasting. And I think, for perspective, the World Health Organization said that 3 [ million ] to 5 million people a year get severe flu and about 250 [,000 ] to 500,000 die from it. So, I think we need to put this in perspective before we all freak out. Again, I don't want to downplay the economic impact, but I think we only have a few months of it before it actually just goes away.... Sentiment got extremely bulled up, so, that's the backdrop for this. I mean, you look at [ the weekly ] Investor's Intelligence [ Bull/Bear poll ] last week, bulls were just shy of 60. Citi's Panic-Euphoria weekly index is fully in euphoria state, and according to their numbers, there's an 80% chance that, a year from now, stocks are down, again, just based on their statistic. So, the sentiment was just all one-sided. So, that's the backdrop for what was probably a needed rest in the market, and this just so happens to be the catalyst for it. ''
Derek Scissors, an American Enterprise Institute economist specializing in Asia, also didn't expect a sustained downdraft:
`` I think the short-term economic impact is going to be very stark because of the nature of Chinese decision-making. Information moves slowly in their system. They tend to intentionally overreact because they know they don't have good information. So, you see these shutdowns. You're going to see a very big blow to economic activity in China in the first quarter, but activity is not productivity.... In this case, we don't see a blow to the labor force. We don't see a blow to the capital stock yet, and we all hope we're not going to see it. So, I think the first quarter's going to have some terrible numbers, but I think a year from now, we're not going to economically... notice this any longer. ''
David Lebovitz, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the reaction shouldn't weigh too heavily on earnings estimates, either:
`` I think, for now, it's going to be contained in multiples. If we think about the run that we had in markets, really, over the past couple of months, it's been fueled by a lot of optimism around U.S.-China trade and the Fed and a rebound in global growth, and so I think it's reasonable to expect things to come out of the multiple first. If we look back to '03 with SARS, multiples dipped by about 7.5% from peak to trough and then resumed their upward trend as everything got under control. So, I think that there was room for markets to pull back before. I think, now, there's even more room for markets to pull back. But I don't think the initial reaction is necessarily to cut earnings. I think the Street is still too optimistic for 2020 as a whole, but I 'm not sure that it's going to trickle down all the way quite yet. ''
Jim Cramer, host of `` Mad Money, '' even suggested doing some buying:
`` Is this the panic that people have been waiting for? I 'll tell you what's really interesting. We 've been saying over and over again, 'If we get an exogenous event, that's when you get the sell-off. That's when you have to buy. ' I think it's only timing of when you have to buy, and I just don't think today, other than to buy Clorox, other than to buy AbbVie, other than to buy, for speculation, Owens and Minor, which bought Halyard for [ $ ] 700 million – Halyard is the company that has the best hospital gowns, the best, actually, apparel for when you think that there is going to be an infectious disease — so, you can buy that. I want to emphasize Clorox if only just because this has been always the time to buy it, whether it was H1N1 — you can see it had a nice 7% rally into the H1N1 [ crisis ]. ''
Tom White, senior analyst at D. A. Davidson, said investors should be wary of some names feeling the virus ' impact:
`` When it comes to China specifically, for the online travel names like Booking and Expedia,... they don't really have much direct exposure there. They haven't really been able to crack into that market. It's really been Trip.com Group, formerly Ctrip, that really has kind of the point-of-sale business in China. If we see that coronavirus expands more broadly throughout Asia- [ Pacific ], then I think you have to worry a bit more for these companies, particularly Booking.com. They 've invested a lot of money not only in their Booking.com brand, but they also have an asset there called Agoda. But even then, you 've got to sort of look at it between destination travel and point of sale. When it comes to destination travel, which we think maybe is 20% of, say, Booking.com's business, Asia [ -Pacific ] destination travel, those people will decide to go somewhere else.... I think it's down 8% since the close on Friday before the long weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised to maybe see it down a couple more percent here as long as this looks like it's going to be a Zika type of time frame. If this looks like it's going to drag on for several... months, more than a month and a half, two months, then I can see the stock sliding more. ''
Disclaimer | business |
Australian shares tumble over fears China's coronavirus could damage economy | Shares in Australian companies closely linked to the Chinese economy tumbled on Tuesday morning amid fears the deadly coronavirus outbreak could smash a tourism sector already reeling from the summer’ s unprecedented bushfires.
The benchmark ASX200 index fell 1.6% in morning trade, following the lead set overnight by US markets, with tourism, consumer and mining stocks leading the charge downwards.
Australia’ s economy is heavily dependent on China, which as the country’ s biggest trade partner makes up 26% of its trade with the world.
China is Australia’ s biggest export market, particularly in tourism, with 1.5m Chinese tourists arriving every year, and education.
While some reports estimate the damage to the Australian economy could be as much as $ 2.3bn, experts told Guardian Australia it was too early to be sure.
“ We haven’ t got enough information, ” the economist and former Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin said.
McKibbin has previously estimated that a “ mild ” pandemic in Asia, such as the 1968 Hong Kong flu outbreak which killed about 1m people, would carve 0.8% from Australia’ s gross domestic product, with most of the damage felt in the services sector.
And in a 2004 paper co-authored with the World Health Organisation, he estimated the 2003 Sars outbreak, which killed about 800 people, cut Australian GDP by 0.07%.
Coronavirus is so far known to have killed 106 people since the outbreak of a new strain in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last month.
McKibbin said the hit to the economy would largely depend on how governments responded to the crisis.
“ The virus itself has a pretty small impact in itself, but the way people respond has a larger impact, ” he said.
He said the damage would initially be felt in China-dependent industries such as tourism and mining.
“ You turn off the flow of Chinese tourists for six months and that’ s a big economic shock.
“ Australia I think has responded very well so far. They’ ve been transparent and they’ ve been responsible, so that’ s diminishing the impact domestically. ”
Investors sold down China-exposed stocks on Tuesday morning.
Airline flight sales website Webjet tumbled 11%, flag carrier Qantas was down more than 5% and Andrew “ Twiggy ” Forrest’ s iron ore miner, Fortescue Metals Group, tumbled almost 8%.
Australia’ s two listed casino groups, which are heavily dependent on high rollers from China, also fell, with James Packer’ s embattled Crown Resorts dropping 4.4% and Star Entertainment Group, which runs Sydney’ s casino, falling 5.6%.
Treasury Wine Estates, which sells wine including the top-end Penfolds Grange into the Chinese market, plunged 6.2%.
Australian airports are also likely to be hit by falling passenger numbers, ratings agency Moody’ s said.
“ The Australian airports’ exposure to travellers from China is significantly higher now than it was during the Sars outbreak, accounting for over 15% of total short-term inbound travellers in 2019 compared to 4% in 2003, ” Moody’ s said in a report issued on Thursday.
“ Any decline in passenger volumes would add to the challenging operating conditions facing Australian airports, including moderating passenger volumes due to lower arrivals from China, tepid consumer confidence and the impact of the bushfires on the peak holiday season. ”
The Australian Tourism Industry Council executive director, Simon Westaway, said the virus was “ a genuine concern ” to the sector.
He said that of about $ 50bn spent by tourists each year, Chinese visitors made up $ 12bn.
About a quarter of these arrive as part of tour groups, which Chinese authorities have banned for at least two months.
“ We’ re receiving about 1.5m short-term arrivals a year out of China, so it’ s our largest inbound market, ” he said.
“ So therefore there are clear challenges ahead on the basis of the sheer numbers alone, and the fact that we’ ve built a strong relationship between our countries. ”
He said it was too early to quantify the damage.
“ The concern is obviously we’ re going to see a reduction in terms of the number of visitors because the groups are going to fall away for the next two months.
“ It will be interesting to see how it’ s going to recover. ”
He said the relationship between the coronavirus outbreak and the hit the tourism industry has already taken from the summer’ s deadly bushfires was “ not as significant as many people may believe ”.
“ They don’ t spread tourists down through to places like Mallacoota.
“ There inevitably will be a level of crossover effect but we are really talking about a fairly separate market. ”
Ratings agency Moody’ s said tourism industries across the Asia-Pacific, including Australia, were likely to feel the most impact in the short term.
In a report issued on Friday, Moody’ s said it was too early to tell if the outbreak would cut China’ s growth, but warned it could hurt domestic travel and the country’ s car industry, which is heavily reliant on Wuhan.
“ Wuhan hosts production facilities for seven major domestic and foreign manufacturers, and for hundreds of auto parts suppliers, ” Moody’ s said.
“ Complicated supply chains and just-in-time production could mean that production outages in Wuhan factories have broader spillover effects. ”
It said the effect on consumers could be magnified because the outbreak is occurring during lunar new year, “ a period when households tend to spend more on travel, entertainment, and gifts ”.
“ Even if the virus is contained fairly quickly, the initial stages of high uncertainty are likely to affect spending, ” the agency said.
• This story was corrected on 29 January 2020 to attribute comments to Moody’ s that had been attributed to S & P in an earlier version. | general |
Wuhan coronavirus: China confirms more cases as death toll rises | More than 2,800 people in China are now said to have been infected by the fast-spreading coronavirus while more countries have reported their first confirmed cases.
Chinese officials have said there are 2,862 confirmed cases, with the death toll rising to 81.
On Monday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited the epicenter of the outbreak — the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, where the deadly pneumonia-like virus was first identified last month. Li was there to inspect prevention and control efforts, the government said.
The new strain comes from a large family of viruses known as coronaviruses, according to the World Health Organization. They are known to cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.
It has since spread beyond Wuhan to other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Macao, and Hong Kong.
In a press briefing, the National Health Commission said the incubation period for the virus is about 10 days and that it is contagious even during this stage, putting additional pressure on prevention control. That is said to be a major difference compared to SARS, where victims became contagious after they showed symptoms.
Wuhan's mayor said on Sunday that there could be about 1,000 more confirmed cases of the virus in the city. About 5 million people left Wuhan before travel was restricted, and nine million people are currently living there. Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities are currently in lockdown to restrict the virus ' spread.
The World Health Organization's director-general, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is traveling to Beijing to meet with government and health officials. According to the organization, more data needs to be collected before the virus, which can spread through human-to-human contact, is declared a global health emergency.
China stepped up efforts to increase medical supplies to Wuhan that includes transferring 14,000 protective suits and 110,000 pairs of gloves from the central medical reserves, according to the State Council. Emergency supplies of 3 million masks, 100,000 protective suits and 2,180 pairs of goggles were also made available.
More than 1,600 medical staff are said to be sent to the Hubei province to assist in containing the virus. The central government previously said it allocated 1 billion yuan ( $ 145 million) to support the province — Wuhan is building a 1,000-bed hospital to treat the infected and plans to have the facility operational by the end of the week.
Authorities also temporarily banned the trade of wild animals in China on Sunday, responding to the outbreak as some consider the virus to have originated in a type of wild animal sold and consumed as food in Wuhan, the Associated Press reported.
China has also extended the Lunar New Year holiday to Feb. 2 in a bid to reduce people from gathering in public spaces, which could increase the risk of infection. Beijing said it will delay school reopenings in the city.
Internationally, the number of confirmed cases grew: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States on Sunday reported its fifth confirmed case in Arizona.
Singapore's health ministry said the number of confirmed cases in the city-state rose to four while South Korea reported its third patient infected with the virus. Thailand also reported three new cases, according to the Associated Press.
Australia has confirmed four people have been infected — one in the state of Victoria and three in New South Wales. On Monday, health officials reported a fifth case that involved a 21-year-old woman who was on the last flight out of Wuhan to Sydney before China restricted travel out of the city, Reuters reported.
French authorities on Friday confirmed the first instances of the virus in Europe, with three cases in the country — two patients in Paris and one in Bordeaux, according to local media.
Nepal is said to have confirmed its first case — a Nepali student studying in China, according to Xinhua.
Cases have also been reported in Taiwan, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
U.S., France, and Japan were said to be arranging to evacuate their consulate staff from China, the Associated Press reported.
On Saturday, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam declared a virus emergency in the city of 7.3 million, extending school cancellations until Feb. 17.
— CNBC's Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report. | business |
European Stocks Tumble as Investors are Rattled by Spreading Coronavirus | European stocks tumbled on Monday, led by airlines, mining stocks and luxury-goods companies as the death toll from China’ s coronavirus, along with the number of those infected, ramped up dramatically.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.7% to 416.48, headed for its worst one-day fall since August last year. The index closed Friday with a near 0.9% gain, though Wall Street fell at the close amid rising coronavirus fears.
The French CAC 40 index fell 1.9%, the German DAX 30 1.9% and the FTSE 100 2.1%.
Economic data FROM Germany showed the January Ifo Business Climate index came in at 95.9, missing the consensus estimate for 97, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
U.S. stock futures fell sharply, with losses of more than 1% indicated for major indexes.
At the heart of market concerns on Monday was the rapidly spreading virus from China, which causes respiratory illness and is not yet under control.
China extended this week’ s Lunar New Year holiday, one of several measures aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus, as the death count rose to at least 80, and the number of those infected neared 3,000. Several countries have reported confirmed infections, including the U.S., France and Japan.
A worrying detail emerged after the mayor of Wuhan, a city believed to be at the epicenter of the outbreak, said five million people left before the travel ban was imposed.
Travel and luxury-goods companies were again out in front with big declines. Deutsche Lufthansa, EasyJe t, Air France-KLM and International Consolidated Airlines Group were all down over 4%.
Among luxury-goods companies, Burberry Group and LVMH Moët Hennessy — Louis Vuitton both tumbled around 4%, Kering dropped 3% and Cie. Financière Richemont slid 2%.
Mining stocks, extremely sensitive to the Chinese economy as the country is a big purchaser of natural resources, were another losing sector. Shares of Evraz slid over 5%, and Antofagasta, BHP and Glencore fell 4% each.
Shares in major oil companies dropped as crude prices slid on concerns about how the virus might impact China’ s economy and weaken its demand for that commodity as well. Shares of Total slid 1.6% and BP lost 2%. | business |
3 Biotech Stocks Soar on Hopes for Coronavirus Vaccine | Shares of a handful of small and mid-sized biotechs that are working on vaccines for the Wuhan coronavirus soared on Monday, as worries over the spread of the illness weigh on the broader markets.
Yet despite enthusiasm from investors, analysts caution that it’ s unlikely the vaccines under development could make it to market in time to see revenue from the current outbreak.
“ Companies stating their interest in development vaccines for coronavirus are likely too late, as we saw similar commentary around SARS and other similar situations, ” wrote Jefferies health care trading desk analyst Jared Holz in a note Monday morning.
Read Next: The Dow Could Hit 30,000 Five Years Ahead of Schedule. It Won’ t Stop There.
Such notes of caution haven’ t dampened investor interest. Shares of the mid-sized clinical-stage biotech firm Moderna ( ticker: MRNA) closed 7.7% higher on Monday, and shares of the small biotechs Novavax ( NVAX) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals ( INO) jumped 9% and 25.5%, respectively.
The jumps for the small firms came as markets fell, and even as the broader health-care sector stumbled. The S & P 500 closed 1.6% lower, and the S & P 500 Health Care Sector index fell 0.8%.
The news reports bumping the three biotech stocks relate to early-stage programs using novel scientific modalities to move quickly on possible vaccines for the disease, which has killed at least 80 people worldwide. Yet the drugs would still likely take months or years until they could be made widely available. And though some of the companies involved have extensive drug pipelines, not one of them has previously received Food and Drug Administration approval for any of its products.
Every weekday evening we highlight the consequential market news of the day and explain what's likely to matter tomorrow.
As Barron’ s wrote last week, Moderna is working to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus based on the messenger RNA technology in which the firm specializes. The company said last Thursday that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health, will run a Phase 1 trial of an experimental coronavirus vaccine that Moderna is developing. Last Tuesday, in an interview with S & P Global Market Intelligence, the director of the NIAID said they hoped to begin a Phase 1 trial “ in about three months. ”
Novavax saw its share price collapse last February when its experimental vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus failed in a Phase 3 trial. The small biotech said last week it was working on a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. The stock soared 71% on January 21, but then fell on January 22, after the company said it planned to sell up to $ 100 million of its own shares. But Novavax stock surged again on Monday, even though the company’ s CEO told Yahoo Finance on Friday that a coronavirus vaccine wouldn’ t be available anytime soon.
On Monday, Inovio extended its gains from last week, after an international agency funded by a handful of governments and large private foundations, called the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, said it had given the company a grant to develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. ( The agency is also involved in funding the Moderna effort.) The $ 9 million grant will support pre-clinical development and a Phase 1 trial of the vaccine. Inovio said in its statement that it had tested its Zika vaccine in humans seven months into development of the drug.
While the small biotechs are working on new vaccines for the coronavirus, scientists in China in the meantime are trying to use HIV drugs to treat the disease. According to a Reuters report on Sunday, an HIV drug developed by AbbVie ( ABBV) is being tested to treat the coronavirus’ s symptoms. | business |
Alarm Grows as Markets Tumble and Death Toll Rises | This briefing has ended. Read the latest developments in our live coronavirus outbreak coverage here.
An outbreak of a new coronavirus that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan has already killed at least 106 people in China, according to data released early Tuesday. Infections have been confirmed in many other countries. But of the 4,500 people who have so far contracted the virus, the vast majority live in China.
◆ All but a small handful of those deaths were in the central province of Hubei, the center of the outbreak.
◆ Officials in the capital, Beijing, which has a population of about 21 million, announced the first death in the city from coronavirus on Monday. The patient, a 50-year-old man, had traveled to Wuhan on Jan. 8 and developed a fever after returning to Beijing a week later. He was diagnosed on Jan. 22 and died of respiratory failure, the Beijing Municipal Health Commission announced.
◆ Across China there have been more than 4,500 confirmed cases. The youngest confirmed case is a 9-month-old girl in Beijing.
◆ Thailand and Hong Kong have each reported eight cases of infection; the United States, Taiwan, Australia and Macau have five each; Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia each have reported four; France has three; Canada and Vietnam have two; and Nepal, Cambodia and Germany each have one.
◆ There have been no deaths from the virus reported outside China.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
Stocks tumbled and oil prices fell on Monday as the virus’ s spread worried investors around the globe.
The S & P 500 fell 1.6 percent, with shares of airlines and companies dependent on tourism from China particularly hard hit. It was the sharpest decline since Oct. 2, when the trade war was fanning fears of a slowdown.
American Airlines dropped more than 4 percent in early trading, and Wynn Resorts, which operates casinos in Macau, a special administrative region of China and a gambling haven for Chinese high rollers, dropped more than 7 percent.
Major stock benchmarks in Europe were down more than 2 percent. While many markets in Asia were closed for the holiday, Tokyo’ s benchmark Nikkei 225 index also sank 2 percent.
The price of oil dropped, on fears that demand could slip. China’ s currency also fell, while investors moved into safe havens like gold.
China’ s economy, which is experiencing its worst slowdown in nearly three decades, is already hurting from the impact of the outbreak, and there are fears that consumer spending will go down as more residents stay home over the Lunar New Year.
American health officials in Washington issued new guidance for travelers late Monday afternoon, recommending that they avoid all nonessential trips to China.
The warning, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, notes that transportation in and out of Hubei Province may be restricted and that there is “ limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas. ”
Health officials also counseled travelers in China to avoid contact with sick people, animal markets and uncooked meats, and to talk to their health care provider and wash hands frequently.
Some 110 patients in 26 states are being evaluated for infection with the Wuhan coronavirus, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday.
Five of the 110 have tested positive so far, and 32 have tested negative.
“ That is a cumulative number and will only increase, ” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
At the moment, the risk of infection in the United States is low. But Dr. Messonnier cautioned that information about the outbreak is changing rapidly, and the C.D.C.’ s response and guidance are constantly revised.
The C.D.C. continues to screen passengers arriving in the United States whose travel originated in Wuhan. Officials are considering broadening the effort and revising official guidance on travel to the region, Dr. Messonnier said.
Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, has arrived in Beijing to “ understand the latest developments and strengthen our partnership with China in providing further protection against the outbreak, ” he said in a tweet.
The city’ s top health official, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, said that it was only a matter of time before someone in the city tests positive for the virus.
Hospitals have been on the lookout for patients with recent travel involving Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus is believed to have originated. And they have urged anyone who recently traveled there — or who have been in contact with someone who has — to quickly seek medical care if they have any respiratory or flulike symptoms.
So far, of nine patients for whom New York State officials have sought testing from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, four were found not to have the virus, and the tests involving the other five are pending, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Monday in a statement.
When the first case in New York does arrive, health officials said, that patient may end up in a biocontainment unit in Bellevue Hospital or sent home to ride out the illness in their bedroom. That will depend largely on how sick they are, public health officials say.
Health officials identified a “ presumptive ” second case of the new virus: the wife of the first identified case, a man who was hospitalized on Jan. 23. The couple had returned to Toronto after visiting Wuhan a day earlier.
The woman’ s symptoms were not severe enough to require hospitalization, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, the province’ s associate chief medical officer of health, said at a news conference. She was in isolation at home.
The man is in his 50s and is now in stable condition. Laboratory tests confirmed that he was infected with the new coronavirus, and tests are pending for his wife, officials said.
Health officials are now tracking down people who sat near the couple on a flight to Toronto from Guangzhou, and questioning the travel history of people seeking medical help for respiratory problems around Ontario, Dr. Yaffe said.
The Chinese government usually keeps a tight grip on what is said, seen and heard about it. But criticism on social media over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak has been difficult to contain.
Some critics of the government have found clever ways to dodge censors, such as referring to Xi Jinping as “ Trump ” or comparing the outbreak to the Chernobyl catastrophe.
The vitriol has been most intense in Hubei, the home province of Wuhan. After the provincial governor, Wang Xiaodong, gave a news briefing on Sunday, online commenters mocked Mr. Wang for misstating the number of face masks that the province could produce.
They also circulated a photo from the briefing of him and two other officials, pointing out that one of them did not cover his nose with his mask. Another wore his mask upside down, and Mr. Wang did not wear a mask at all.
The Chinese health care system strains to serve patients even under normal circumstances. Those weaknesses are most pronounced in the poorer areas of China — like Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.
Panicked residents of the city are heading to the hospitals if they have any sign of a cold or cough.
Videos circulating on Chinese social media show doctors straining to handle the enormous workload and hospital corridors loaded with patients, some of whom appear to be dead. Wuhan hospitals have posted messages online urgently appealing for medical equipment. The situation is even more desperate in nearby rural areas.
Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said China had invested a lot in building infrastructure to deal with infectious diseases.
“ But they apparently didn’ t anticipate something so sudden, so acute, and so tremendous, ” he said.
China’ s efforts to contain the spread of the disease by keeping tens of millions of people corralled in the major cities in Hubei Province have drawn skepticism from some experts in public health and epidemiology.
The lockdown will pose tremendous challenges, starting with getting food, fuel and medical care to those affected.
“ At this stage of the outbreak, the things that make the most difference are finding people, diagnosing people, and getting them isolated, ” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, an infectious diseases specialist and director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
“ If you isolate the city, then my question and my concern is that you’ re making it harder in a number of ways to do those things you need to do, ” including getting sick people to the hospital and getting supplies into medical facilities, he said.
Other experts said that the travel restrictions had probably come too late and that the barriers would prove too permeable. Five million people had left Wuhan before travel out of the city was restricted, said the city’ s mayor, Zhou Xianwang.
“ You can’ t board up a germ, ” said Lawrence O. Gostin, a law professor at Georgetown University and director of the O’ Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law. “ A novel infection will spread. ”
Some experts, however, said the lockdowns could help, at least in theory.
“ Anything that is done that increases social distancing can help decrease the spread of the virus, ” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “ If you do it right, it’ s not impossible it will have positive impact. ”
Hospital workers in Hong Kong are trying to prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus cases — with memories of the SARS epidemic of the early 2000s still fresh.
In the past week, doctors and nurses have drawn straws to determine when they would work in coronavirus isolation wards for six-week shifts. A hospital rearranged its cafeteria so that all tables faced the walls, a precaution from the SARS era to prevent employees from infecting each other during their meals.
The SARS outbreak killed eight medical workers in the city. Some still suffer from lung damage 17 years later.
Many hospital workers are calling for stricter border checks as Lunar New Year holidays come to a close this week, and a wave of visitors and residents are expected to return from the mainland.
A new union, HA Employees Alliance, threatened to go on strike if the government did not close its borders to the mainland.
Arisina Ma, the president of the Hong Kong Public Doctors’ Association, called for stricter border checks, and for possibly requiring visitors and residents to stay home for 14 days, the incubation period for the disease, after returning from the mainland.
“ We are waiting for the worst to come, ” she added. “ Of course we will try to stop it but I am not sure if our government is efficient and determined enough to stop the worst to come. ”
At the same time, the city’ s hospitals are still reeling from the anti-government protests that flooded their wards with patients over the past seven months.
Early Monday morning, hours after protesters set fire to unused public housing units designated to be medical quarantine areas, a handmade bomb exploded inside a hospital toilet cubicle, a police official said. The two small explosions filled the emergency ward with smoke but caused no injuries.
Wuhan’ s top government and Communist Party officials offered to step down on Monday amid growing criticism in the city that the local authorities’ response to the outbreak was too slow.
Mayor Zhou Xianwang said in an interview with the state broadcaster CCTV that he and Ma Guoqiang, the city’ s party secretary, would take responsibility for the crisis and resign to “ appease public indignation. ”
“ Our names will live in infamy, but as long as it is conducive to the control of the disease and to the people’ s lives and safety, Comrade Ma Guoqiang and I will bear any responsibility, ” Mr. Zhou said in the interview.
Medical workers in the city have accused the local government of reacting too slowly to the crisis, and residents have used social media to complain about a ban on travel that has made it difficult to get access to food and health care.
The mayor defended the travel ban, which was enacted last week and effectively cut off the city of 11 million people. He called the restriction “ unprecedented in human history. ”
China’ s second-highest ranking official, Premier Li Keqiang, on Monday visited Wuhan to inspect local efforts to contain the disease, the government said.
In pictures released by the state-run news media, Mr. Li is seen wearing a face mask and a blue protective gown while posing for photos with health workers. He was also seen speaking with a patient in an isolation ward via video conference.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
The premier’ s visit comes as the central government is under increasing pressure to prove it is adequately coping with the crisis.
On Saturday, Xi Jinping, China’ s leader, convened a meeting of the Politburo’ s standing committee, the senior-most executive body of the Chinese Communist Party, as a demonstration of the government’ s hands-on approach to the outbreak.
Hospitals in Wuhan have posted messages online urgently appealing for medical equipment. Mr. Li, who has been assigned to oversee the national response to the outbreak, pledged to provide Wuhan’ s health centers with 20,000 pairs of safety goggles.
Trying to temporarily limit travel, the Chinese government extended the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday by three days, meaning it will go through next Sunday rather than ending on Thursday. Workers will return to work on Feb. 3.
The holiday, China’ s biggest annual celebration, began on Friday, the eve of the Lunar New Year.
Hundreds of millions of Chinese people travel during the holiday, either for tourism or to visit family. The week, known in China as Spring Festival, typically includes large public events, but many festivities have been canceled this year.
Many tourist attractions have been shuttered including the Disney theme parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong, along with the Forbidden City and sections of the Great Wall in Beijing.
Residents of Wuhan have largely hunkered down to quietly wait out the crisis, mostly staying inside their homes, and venturing out only for supplies and food, medical visits and occasional bursts of exercise away from other people.
Cities, towns and even villages have erected checkpoints and roadblocks intended to ward off any outsiders who might carry the coronavirus.
On Monday, most shops remained closed, but supermarkets, fresh produce stores and pharmacies remained open — although many pharmacies have run out of protective masks, hand disinfectant and other supplies intended to protect against the virus.
Residents with fevers and coughs who worried that they may have contracted the coronavirus continued to line up at clinics and hospitals, but in fewer numbers than on previous days. The streets were mostly free of cars, and many residents walked or rode bicycles to do their shopping.
“ It’ s possible to live, but it’ s not a real New Year, ” said Qiu Dongjun, 38, a construction worker from rural Hubei Province who was carrying a bagful of shopping, mostly instant noodles and tins of precooked porridge.
As health officials race to contain the dangerous virus, social media users in China are responding to the outbreak with dashes of gallows humor.
On the messaging platform WeChat, people circulated images of improvised face masks made of plastic water jugs. One video on WeChat and the social platform Weibo showed a group of people playing mah-jongg, the popular tile-based game, while wearing what appeared to be plastic bags over their heads.
Another video on WeChat appeared to show a person emerging from an airport baggage claim clad in a full-body space alien costume, complete with green skin and bulging eyes.
Masks are a common motif in virus-related memes. They have been added to traditional greetings exchanged for the Lunar New Year, and photoshopped into classic paintings like Vermeer’ s “ Girl With a Pearl Earring. ” They appear in propaganda posters done in the style of the Mao era and updated to reflect the times.
A video on Twitter appeared to show a taxi driver wearing goggles and a hazmat suit while taking a woman to the airport.
The woman asks the driver whether his outfit might scare off potential fares. He replies serenely: “ Safety first, right? ”
Foreign governments with nationals stranded in Wuhan scrambled to evacuate their citizens from the epicenter of the outbreak, even as China imposed official travel bans.
The State Department said it had chartered a flight to take consular staff members and other American citizens to San Francisco from Wuhan on Tuesday. The department said priority would be given to those at greater risk from contracting the virus because of the flight’ s “ extremely limited ” capacity.
At least one American, a father of three young children, declined the offer after the United States government said his wife, a Chinese national, would not be offered a seat.
France, Japan, Spain and Sri Lanka also said they would bring home nationals. Once in France, evacuated nationals would be required to spend 14 days in quarantine.
Russia was in talks with China about evacuating its citizens, local news media reported. Russian tour operators have stopped selling trips to China following recommendations from the country’ s tourism watchdog and would work only to evacuate travelers, Reuters reported.
Though the number of coronavirus cases and deaths is alarming, public health experts have so far warned against mass anxiety. After all, the common flu kills roughly 35,000 people a year and hospitalizes about 200,000 in the United States alone.
It is too soon to know the mortality rate of the virus in the new outbreak. But there are signs that this outbreak could be far more serious than the common flu.
For one, other coronaviruses have far higher mortality rates than the common flu, and have also led to global outbreaks.
Chinese citizens are also haunted by the memory of the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003, a coronavirus outbreak that also started in China and eventually killed more than 800 people worldwide. During that epidemic, Beijing at first played down the crisis and withheld information, eventually drawing widespread criticism.
And conclusive evidence about how the outbreak started is lacking. While officials in Wuhan first traced it to a seafood market, some patients who have fallen ill never visited the market. Researchers have also offered disparate explanations for what animals may have transmitted the virus to humans.
The coronavirus outbreak seemed to be a full-blown crisis by the time the first news reports emerged: Dozens of people had been infected, even some abroad.
Though China’ s initial delay in reporting cases of the new virus may suggest a cover-up, experts see something more worrying: weaknesses at the heart of the Chinese political system.
China’ s rigid bureaucracy discourages local officials from raising bad news with central bosses, and it silos officials off from one another, making it harder to manage, or even see, a crisis in the making.
“ That’ s why you never really hear about problems emerging on a local scale in China, ” said John Yasuda, who studies China’ s approach to health crises at Indiana University. “ By the time that we hear about it, and that the problem reaches the central government, it’ s because it’ s become a huge problem. ”
Those systemic flaws appear to have played a role in the pace at which officials responded to the outbreak, and the country’ s inability to address the health risks from its so-called wet markets, which are stuffed with livestock living and dead, domesticated and wild.
China is now mobilizing a nationwide response involving hundreds of personnel, one of the system’ s strengths. But the country’ s political weaknesses can have serious consequences for the world. Disease and pollution don’ t respect borders, so a unified national policy is typically needed to prevent or stop them.
For any health or environmental regulation to work, Mr. Yasuda said, “ you want it to be standardized, you want it to be transparent, you want it to be accountable. ”
Reporting was contributed by Elaine Yu, Russell Goldman, Alexandra Stevenson, Tiffany May, Steven Lee Myers, Vivian Wang, Chris Buckley, Raymond Zhong, Denise Grady, Roni Caryn Rabin, Sheri Fink, Katie Robertson, Sui-Lee Wee, Ian Austen and Karen Zraick. Zoe Mou, Albee Zhang, Amber Wang, Yiwei Wang and Claire Fu contributed research. | business |
Ivory Coast tests first person in Africa for coronavirus | The student, whom authorities have not named, is the first person to be tested for the virus on the continent. The virus has killed at least 80 people in the mainland Chinese city of Wuhan.
The 34-year-old student traveled from Beijing to the Félix-Houphouët-Boigny International Airport in Abidjan on Saturday and was coughing, sneezing and experienced difficulty breathing, Ivory Coast's Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene said in statement.
The student was moved to a safe location upon arrival at the airport and is currently under medical observation, the ministry said.
Authorities believe it is highly likely a case of pneumonia and not coronavirus, but the final diagnosis will be made after the analysis of the results of the test, the ministry said.
Michel Yao, WHO Africa emergency response program manager, said the agency had advised health ministers in the region to activate standard flu screening at airports for passengers coming from mainland China.
Screening at airports
Residents are urged not to panic, to maintain proper hygiene, and to visit the closest health center in case of fever, cough, or breathing difficulties.
More than 2700 coronavirus cases have been confirmed, prompting countries around the world, including Nigeria to shore up surveillance and screening at airports, especially for travelers arriving from Wuhan in China where the outbreak began in December.
Aviation authorities in Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, said airlines operating in its airspace should update crew members on how to handle sick passengers on board their aircrafts.
Pilots must report such cases to health officials on landing while also encouraging sick travelers to seek help before leaving the airport, Nigeria's Federal Airport Agency said in a statement.
Kenya, whose national carrier Kenya Airways, operates nonstop flights from Nairobi capital to Guangzhou, has also begun screening passengers arriving from China at its airport, according to local media.
Coronavirus are a large group of viruses that are common among animals, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In rare cases, they are what scientists call zoonotic, meaning they can be transmitted from animals to humans. The viruses can make people sick, usually with a mild to moderate upper respiratory tract illness, similar to a common cold.
Symptoms include a runny nose, cough, sore throat, and infected persons may have headaches and maybe a fever, which can last for a couple of days. | business |
FOREX-Yuan, commodity-linked currencies slide as Chinese virus toll rises | * Investors seek safety as cases of coronavirus rise
* Yuan hits three-week low, Aussie lowest since early December
* Yen bounces but erases most of its early gains
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http: //tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh ( Adds details, new quote, latest prices)
LONDON, Jan 27 ( Reuters) - China's yuan tumbled to a 2020 low on Monday and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar fell, as growing fears about the spread of a coronavirus from China pushed investors into safer assets.
The yen was the main beneficiary, although its move higher was limited. The Japanese currency touched its highest since Jan. 8.
Health authorities around the world are working to prevent a pandemic of the virus, which has killed more than 80 people in China. Nearly 2,800 people have been infected globally. China's National Health Commission said on Sunday the ability of the virus to spread was getting stronger.
China's government announced it would extend the Lunar New Year holidays to help prevent and control the virus.
Hong Kong has also banned the entry of people who have visited the province of Hubei in the past 14 days. The outbreak was first reported in Hubei.
RBC Capital Markets ' FX strategist Elsa Lignos said that while some would argue that fears about the virus were overdone, given the low mortality rate, `` the bigger worry is the economic impact of containment and quarantine strategies, particularly in China. ''
The offshore yuan shed more than 0.8% to 6.99 yuan per dollar, its weakest since Dec. 30.
After rallying to a five-and-a-half month high earlier in January, the yuan has gone into a tailspin. The dollar has gained more than 2% versus the Chinese currency since last Monday.
The Australian dollar, which is exposed to the Chinese economy, dropped 0.8% to $ 0.6771, its lowest since Dec. 2. The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.7%.
Traders said market moves could be exaggerated by low liquidity. Financial markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Australia are closed for holidays.
The yen rose as high as 108.73 yen but was last down 0.3% at 108.91 yen per dollar.
`` Risk aversion is contagious, and coronavirus has infected confidence across the board at the start of the week, '' said Kit Juckes, an analyst at Societe Generale.
The euro fell to a two-month low against the yen of 119.94 yen. 0.4% lower. It also lost ground to the Swiss franc, slipping to a 33-month low of 1.0689 francs per euro.
The euro erased its earlier gains against the dollar after the Ifo institute said that German business morale deteriorated unexpectedly in January. The euro was unchanged at $ 1.1026.
The dollar index was flat at 97.849.
Sterling rose 0.2% to $ 1.3090. Positioning data last week showed investors reducing their net long position in the pound before a Bank of England decision on Thursday about whether to cut UK interest rates.
( Reporting by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes; editing by Toby Chopra, Larry King) | business |
New York Braces for Coronavirus: ‘ It’ s Inevitable’ | With isolated cases of the dangerous new coronavirus cropping up in a number of states, public health officials say it is only a matter of time before the virus appears in New York City.
As a result, hospitals have been on the lookout for patients with recent travel involving Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus is believed to have originated. And they have urged those who recently traveled there — or who have been in contact with someone who has — to quickly seek medical care if they have any respiratory or flulike symptoms.
“ It’ s inevitable that we will have someone who is positive with coronavirus, ” New York City’ s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, said Sunday.
Some of the last passengers to arrive at Kennedy International Airport on the last direct flights from Wuhan before they were canceled were quarantining themselves at home. One man told of how he had confined himself to his house in Queens, as friends left special Lunar New Year meals on his doorstep.
So far, state officials have sought testing for nine patients who were deemed potential cases of the new coronavirus, sending samples to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing.
Four of those patients were found not to have the virus, and the tests involving the other five are still pending, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Monday in a statement.
When the first case does arrive, health officials said, that patient may end up in a biocontainment unit in Bellevue Hospital or sent home to ride out the illness in his or her bedroom. That will depend largely on how sick they are, public health officials say.
Some people with the virus, Dr. Barbot said, have limited symptoms: coughing, shortness of breath, a low-grade fever. But in others, the virus can be lethal.
Outside of the city, the state Department of Health has been hosting online seminars about the new coronavirus for medical staff. In particular, health officials have engaged in outreach to university health systems, where international students are likely to seek medical care.
By and large, the message to the public has been one of reassurance. “ We are encouraging New Yorkers to go about their everyday lives and suggest practicing everyday precautions that we do through the flu season, ” Dr. Barbot said.
But there is considerable anxiety and debate over the proper precautions within the city’ s Chinatowns. That has only grown in the past few days as more alarming news has emerged out of Wuhan about the virus’ s spread. So far more than 4,500 people have been sickened and more than 100 people have died.
In response, the authorities in China have imposed a lockdown of some 56 million people in cities in Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, though by the time it was in effect some five million people had already traveled from Wuhan, according to Wuhan’ s mayor.
Scott Liu, 56, a textile importer who lives in Queens, said he was on the last direct flight from Wuhan to Kennedy Airport before the flights were canceled last week. He and his fellow passengers learned of the city lockdown mid-flight.
He does not think he is sick, but he knows that symptoms take time to appear — the authorities have said the incubation period is up to two weeks, although symptoms seem to usually appear within a week, Dr. Barbot said.
In the meantime, Mr. Liu has confined himself at home alone, even at the start of Lunar New Year.
Instead of going out to visit friends and family or sharing holiday meals, Mr. Liu stood behind his door as friends dropped off traditional Hubei dishes for Lunar New Year on his doorstep — lotus root and pork rib soup, salted fish and dumplings.
Mr. Liu said he did not think he was overreacting, just acting responsibly.
“ For us, this is very serious, ” he said in Mandarin during a phone interview on Friday.
Mr. Liu was among a few hundred members of the New York Yellow Crane Club who had traveled to Wuhan several weeks ago to celebrate the Lunar New Year with relatives.
As the seriousness of the outbreak became apparent, Mr. Liu, who is the club’ s president, and a few others cut short their plans and boarded flights home. Mr. Liu arrived in New York on Wednesday, he said.
As of Monday, Mr. Liu said he had not experienced any symptoms: “ So far, so good. ”
Last year, the Yellow Crane Club, which has more than 500 members of mainly immigrants from Wuhan and their families, hosted a Lunar New Year celebration at a banquet hall in Flushing, Queens.
This year, Mr. Liu said, “ all the events here are canceled. Everybody is in a state of panic. ”
For now, Mr. Liu spends his days staring at his phone, reading the news about the virus and messaging friends. His wife is visiting their daughter in Florida. He worries about his 90-year-old mother, who lives alone in Wuhan.
Most of his friends who had recently returned from Wuhan had also put themselves under quarantine. Some were urged by family members to confine themselves to a single bedroom so as to reduce the risk of transmission should they become ill.
“ There are friends and families that require family members to quarantine themselves — that force them, ” he said.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Dr. Barbot said that those who have recently traveled from Wuhan are not being urged to self-quarantine or avoid large public gatherings.
“ We are very clear: We wish New Yorkers a Happy Lunar New Year and we encourage people to spend time with their families and go about their celebration, ” Dr. Barbot said.
In recent days, Lin Qiurong, 40, who emigrated from China’ s Fujian province in 2002, had been weighing messages from friends, urging each other to avoid large crowds. But on Sunday, Ms. Lin and her three teenage children donned surgical face masks and ventured out to a Lunar New Year parade in Sunset Park, home to Brooklyn’ s largest Chinatown.
It’ s an event that the community looks forward to every year: Giggling children spray each other with canned silly string while lion dance troupes undulate and swerve to the beat of a pounding drum and clanging cymbals. Traditional New Year’ s music blasts from large speakers mounted atop a fleet of passenger vans.
There was still all that. Though as Ms. Lin walked down Eighth Avenue, ahead of the parade, she sized up the crowd, and could not shake the impression that there were fewer spectators lining up than in years past.
“ Look around, ” Ms. Lin said, speaking in Mandarin, noting that while there were plenty of vendors standing behind tables of confetti cannons and silly string, actual spectators seemed to be in short supply. “ It’ s much emptier compared to last year, ” she said.
Louie Liu, 47, a member of a neighborhood patrol group, said he was not concerned about the virus — noting that it had not yet arrived in New York.
“ I believe the Chinese government will be able to keep it under control, ” said Mr. Liu, who emigrated from Fujian province in 1992. He added, also in Mandarin, that “ New York State and New York City are also focused and prepared. ”
New York health officials pointed out that they have a long history of preparing for unfamiliar viruses. As recently as last month, the city’ s public hospital system was running drills for how to handle possible Ebola cases. In these drills, individuals claiming Ebola-like symptoms would enter an emergency room, and mention a recent trip to the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is currently contending with the second largest Ebola outbreak on record.
Dr. Barbot said that there is not yet a full understanding of how easily the new coronavirus is transmitted.
“ All indications are that it’ s not nearly as deadly as SARS virus, but the transmissibility is still to be fully elucidated, ” Dr. Barbot said, drawing a comparison to another coronavirus outbreak that nearly two decades ago infected more than 8,000 people and killed nearly 800. | business |
Volatility ETFs Spike as Worsening Coronavirus Rattles Investors | This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com.
ETFs that follow the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, surged Monday as growing fears of a spreading coronavirus sent U.S. markets reeling.
On Monday, the iPath Series B S & P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN ( VXX) increased 7.1%, ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( VIXY) advanced 6.8% and VelocityShares Daily Long VIX Short-Term ETN ( VIIX) gained 7.8% while the CBOE Volatility Index, or the so-called VIX, jumped 17.2% to 17.2 and touched its highest level since October. Potential investors should keep in mind that VIX-related exchange traded products track VIX futures and not the spot price.
“ Markets hate uncertainty, and the coronavirus is the ultimate uncertainty in that no one knows how badly it will impact the global economy. China is the biggest driver of global growth so this couldn’ t have started in a worse place. Travel in China is much more ubiquitous than it was during the SARS outbreak in 2003, making comparisons less useful. And with the markets overbought to begin with, this is now a sell first, ask questions later situation, “ Alec Young, Managing Director of Global Markets Research, FTSE Russell, said in a note.
Fueling the market fears, the coronavirus has infected over 2,700 people and killed at least 80 as health officials warned it is growing more contagious.
Volatility typically rises when stocks pullback, so owning volatility is seen as a type of market insurance. The Volatility Index, or VIX, an instrument created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE), is a real-time market index that represents the market’ s expectation of a month period of forward-looking volatility. In most cases, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.
Derived from the price inputs of the S & P 500 index options, the VIX provides a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments. It is also known by other names like “ Fear Gauge ” or “ Fear Index, ” as investors, research analysts and portfolio managers generally look at VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions.
Reflecting on the heightened market fears over the near-term outlook of the equity markets, VIX futures were now inverted or showed backwardation where the spot price was trading above near-term futures prices. While the VIX hit a high of 19.02 early Monday, the VIX contract that expires January 29 rose to a high of 18.1 and the contract that expires February 5 advanced to 17.5. VIX futures are almost usually in a perpetual state of contango where later-dated contracts cost more than near-term contracts.
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The Dow Is Down 369 Points Because Coronavirus Is Spooking Investors | Falling. The three major U.S. stock market indexes dropped sharply as worries grew about the spread of the coronavirus. Travel, gambling and technology stocks took significant hits.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 369 points and the S & P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%.
D.R. Horton ( ticker: DHI) gained 2.6% after the home builder reported strong earnings and raised its home-sales guidance for 2020.
Wynn Resorts ( WYNN) was down 6.8% and Las Vegas Sands ( LVS) fell 5.8% because of fears that the coronavirus will reduce gambling revenue in Macau.
Royal Caribbean Cruises ( RCL) was down 6.5%, American Airlines Group ( AAL) lost 5.4% and United Airlines Holdings ( UAL) dropped 4.3% on worries of a global travel slowdown.
Several tech stocks were lower because of fears of supply-chain and demand disruptions: IPG Photonics ( IPGP) fell 5.5%; Seagate Technology ( STX) was down 4.6%; Micron Technology ( MU) and Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS) slipped 4.2%. | business |
Los mercados de China, epicentro de un brote letal | LANGFANG, China — El mercado típico de China tiene frutas y verduras, cortes de res, cerdo y cordero, pollos enteros desplumados ( con todo y cabezas y picos), así como cangrejos y peces vivos, que arrojan agua de peceras que gorgorean. Algunos mercados venden cosas más inusuales, como serpientes vivas, tortugas y cigarras, cuyos, ratas de bambú, tejones, erizos, nutrias, civetas de las palmeras e incluso lobeznos.
Los mercados son característicos de varias ciudades chinas y ahora, al menos por segunda vez en dos décadas, han sido la fuente de una epidemia que ha diseminado el miedo, agobiado a la burocracia del Partido Comunista y expuesto los riesgos epidemiológicos que pueden surgir en lugares donde convergen los humanos y la fauna silvestre.
El nuevo coronavirus, que ha cobrado al menos 56 vidas y enfermado a más de 1370 personas en China y en todo el mundo, se cree que se propagó precisamente desde uno de estos lugares: un mercado de venta al mayoreo en Wuhan, una ciudad en el centro de China, donde los vendedores comerciaban de manera legal con animales vivos en condiciones de hacinamiento.
“ Así es como surgen enfermedades nuevas y nacientes que la población humana nunca antes ha visto ”, afirmó Kevin J. Olival, biólogo y vicepresidente de investigación en EcoHealth Alliance, una organización de investigación sin fines de lucro, que le ha dado seguimiento a brotes anteriores.
Si bien la trayectoria exacta del patógeno no ha sido establecida, funcionarios del gobierno y científicos dijeron que la nueva enfermedad tenía similitudes ominosas con el brote del SARS ( por su sigla en inglés, que en español significa síndrome respiratorio agudo grave, SRAG), a finales de 2002, cuando murieron casi 800 personas y se enfermaron miles más en todo el mundo.
Ahora, conforme el gobierno lucha para contener la ira del público por el brote, debe enfrentarse a exigencias de que haga más para regular la venta de la fauna silvestre, o incluso que la prohíba. Asimismo, también debe responder a cada vez más preguntas sobre por qué las cosas han cambiado tan poco en los diecisiete años desde el brote de SARS.
En suma, el SARS fue rastreado a un coronavirus que saltó de los murciélagos a las civetas de las palmeras, una criatura con rasgos felinos considerada una delicia en el sur de China, y luego saltó a los humanos que participaban ahí en el comercio de vida silvestre. Según los funcionarios y científicos, el nuevo virus también parece que se originó en los murciélagos y luego saltó a otro mamífero, aunque aún no se sabe a cuál.
El brote más reciente —cuyo alcance aún está por definirse— ha provocado reclamaciones tanto dentro de China como fuera del país para que haya mejores regulaciones o incluso se acabe con este sentido de aventura culinario. Aunque la tortuga y la carne de jabalí no son raras en los restaurantes chinos, la carne de animales de caza, como la de las civetas, serpientes o pangolines generalmente solo se consideran exquisiteces en algunas regiones. Su consumo está motivado tanto por el deseo de hacer alarde de riqueza como por una mezcla de superstición y fe en los beneficios a la salud que trae consumir fauna silvestre.
Al poco tiempo de que el Mercado Mayorista de Mariscos Huanan en Wuhan fue identificado como la fuente más probable de este brote en diciembre, las autoridades lo cerraron, aunque no quedó claro qué sucedió con los animales que estaban a la venta ahí. Apenas el 22 de enero los funcionarios anunciaron que habían prohibido la venta de animales salvajes en toda la provincia. Dos provincias más, Henan y Mongolia Interior, también decretaron la suspensión de esta actividad comercial esta última semana.
El 24 de enero, funcionarios de tres agencias nacionales anunciaron controles más estrictos, entre ellas la suspensión a nivel nacional de la venta y el transporte de animales que quizá estén vinculados con el nuevo coronavirus. La declaración solo especificó a tejones y ratas de bambú, una especie de roedores del sur de China que vive en matorrales de bambú, de los que también se alimenta. Ambos habían estado a la venta en el mercado de Wuhan.
La avalancha de acciones tomadas por el gobierno se dio tras profusas manifestaciones del público en contra de la venta de animales vivos. Una campaña en Weibo, la red social, atrajo 45 millones de vistas con la etiqueta # RejectGameMeat ( rechaza la carne de caza).
“ Comer animales de caza no cura la impotencia ni tiene propiedades sanadoras ”, escribió Jin Sichen, conductor de televisión en Nankín, una ciudad en el sureste de China, el 22 de enero en su página de Weibo. “ La carne de estos animales no solo no cura las enfermedades, sino que puede enfermarte a ti, a tu familia, a tus amigos y a muchas más personas ”.
“ Uno tiene que estar mal de la cabeza para comer esa carne solo con el objetivo de presumir y apantallar ”, sostuvo Jin.
Un grupo de diecinueve académicos chinos también exigió que el gobierno hiciera más para regular el comercio y al público para que dejara de comer animales salvajes.
The Wildlife Conservation Society, una organización con sede en Nueva York que defiende a los animales, pidió la prohibición mundial de la venta comercial de fauna en mercados como los de China, arguyendo que este brote reciente demostraba que era una amenaza para la salud pública.
Christian Walzer, el director ejecutivo de salud en la organización, dijo que la increíble diversidad de fauna silvestre en mercados como estos, donde hay animales metidos en jaulas pequeñas en puestos de mercados concurridos, era el laboratorio perfecto para la incubación involuntaria de nuevos virus que pueden penetrar las células humanas. Los virus se contagian a través de la saliva, la sangre o las heces.
“ Cada animal es un paquete de patógenos ”, dijo en una entrevista telefónica.
No obstante, algunos consumidores chinos creen, debido a la medicina tradicional, que estos animales tienen beneficios para la salud. Los vendedores, e incluso funcionarios del Estado en los medios oficiales, han dicho que la fauna silvestre es una fuente alternativa de proteína, así como una fuente de ingreso en regiones empobrecidas. Un artículo de la agencia Xinhua a finales del año pasado, por ejemplo, dijo que criar ratas de bambú ayudaba a sacar a la gente de la pobreza en Guangxi, otra provincia del sur.
“ Es un riesgo de salud pública, no solo en China sino en todas partes ”, dijo.
En el punto más alto del brote de SARS en 2003, las autoridades prohibieron la venta de civetas y se deshicieron de las existencias existentes, pero en cuestión de meses terminaron la prohibición y el comercio se reanudó.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
“ Está impulsado por intereses ”, dijo del brote actual Qin Xianoa, presidente de la Asociación Capital Animal Welfare, una organización de defensa en Pekín. “ Mucha gente se beneficia del comercio de vida salvaje hoy en día ”.
El tráfico de ciertas especies está prohibido, como es el caso de los pangolines, que están en peligro y que son muy apreciados debido a su carne y escamas. Pero la Administración Nacional Forestal y de Pastizales de China permite la cría de 54 animales, aves, reptiles e insectos, entre ellos ratas almizcleras, ardillas listadas, avestruces, emús y ciempiés.
En la popular plataforma de comercio Taobao puede encontrarse todo tipo de animales. Una cría de tejón cuesta 1.300 renminbi, o 187 dólares. Un agricultor de Hunan, la provincia directamente al sur de Hubei, vende civetas —la fuente del SARS— por el equivalente a 215 dólares cada una, o a 200 dólares si uno compra 500 o más.
En el extenso mercado semicerrado en Langfang, un centro de fabricación de productos electrónicos al sur de Beijing, un vendedor anunciaba un cocodrilo vivo ( por 550 dólares) y un puercoespín ( a 115).
Las autoridades de Wuhan no han dado detalles sobre todos los animales queestaban a la venta en el mercado que ha sido vinculado al nuevo coronavirus. Los usuarios de redes sociales compartieron una fotografía de una lista de precios de animales que supuestamente vendía un puesto en elmercado, pero su autenticidad no se ha verificado.
De acuerdo con un blog médico publicado en WeChat, las autoridades sanitarias de Wuhan visitaron el mercado en el mes de septiembre e inspeccionaron ocho puestos que vendían ranas, serpientes y erizos, entre otros animales. Todos tenían licencia para vender y no se hallaron incumplimientos.
A pesar de la propagación del virus en todo el país, una televisora de Hong Kong, I-Cable News Channel, encontró decenas de animales salvajes aún a la venta el miércoles en un mercado en Qingyuan, una ciudad en Guangdong, la provincia donde se originó el SARS.
La epidemia ya ha hecho que los vendedores estén a la defensiva.
“ ¿Están seguros de que comer fauna silvestre es la causa de la epidemia? ”, dijo Zheng Ming, el gerente de ventas de una compañía que vende animales en Yichang, una ciudad a 280 kilómetros de Wuhan. Hasta la prohibición de la venta que se anunció el 22 de enero, vendía erizos, civetas, cuyos y ratas de bambú, entre otros.
“ Nos apegamos a la ley ”, afirmó. “ Este es un negocio totalmente legal ”.
James Gorman colaboró con este reportaje desde Nueva York. Zoe Mou colaboró con la investigación desde Pekín, y Claire Fu, desde Chengdú. | business |
Opinion: Changing Chinese consumer patterns make French luxury groups vulnerable to coronavirus fears | Shares of the big French luxury houses tanked on Monday on news that the coronavirus from China was spreading. The Chinese market has long supplied an increasing part of these companies’ revenues, but the changing nature of the Chinese economy also explains luxury groups’ particular vulnerability.
Shares in LVMH
LVMH,
+0.17%
,
the fashion-and-drinks conglomerate that houses brands such as Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior and champagne maker Moët Hennessy, were down more than 4% in early trading, as were those of Kering
KER,
+1.13%
,
the parent company of Gucci. Luxury leather goods and silk scarfs maker Hermès
RMS,
-1.00%
was down more than 5% at midday.
LVMH is due to publish its full-year results on Tuesday, which could go some way in reassuring markets that the company remains the growth and profit-generating machine it has been for years. And Monday’ s fall only took the stock back to its mid-December level. But LVMH shares rose 65% in 2019, and it may have taken a virus to bring some form of correction.
Shares in Kering meanwhile only ( so to speak) rose 49% in 2019, while Hermès was up 41% over the same period.
LVMH doesn’ t break its revenues down by country, but sales in Asia, excluding Japan, account for 30% of the total. That’ s mostly due to Chinese customers, who didn’ t flinch last year when their economy slowed down as they kept buying champagne, cognac and expensive handbags.
Markets have good reasons to fear that the coronavirus may finally bring some sense of reality to valuations that were reaching absurd levels: Kering and LVMH are trading at more than 30 times profit, Hermès at more than 50, according to Bloomberg data.
Luxury groups have noticed in the past two years that what Chinese customers used to buy abroad on vacation is now purchased at home, in stores that have multiplied on what is not yet called the Chinese high street. A disruption such as the latest coronavirus is bound to seriously impact sales in the coming weeks, as they mostly take place in the big urban centers that are most vulnerable to a spreading disease. | business |
Chinese officials crack down on wildlife markets as coronavirus outbreak nears 3,000 cases | But the options in China can be a bit more exotic.
Vendors in small city markets often sell wild animals including rodents, yak, snakes and even porcupines, and experts say that makes them far more dangerous. The meat could contain deadly pathogens like the coronavirus.
Highlighting those fears, Chinese officials announced on Sunday that the trading of wild animals would be temporarily suspended in hopes that would help contain the outbreak.
Any businesses or operators found breaching the ban will be shut down and the ban will `` not be lifted until the epidemic is declared over, '' a joint statement by three government agencies said, according to state-run news agency Xinhua. Serious violators will be handed over to police for criminal investigation, the statement added.
As of Monday, more than 2,800 cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have been confirmed in China and more than 80 people have died. More than a dozen cities across China have been either fully or partially locked down by authorities, impacting nearly 60 million people.
The virus is becoming a worldwide threat as dozens of confirmed cases have been identified in 14 places outside of mainland China, including at least five in the US.
Source of the outbreak
Officials from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said they have successfully isolated the virus in samples taken from a seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan believed to be the source of the outbreak.
Nearly three dozen of the samples taken from the market contained the nucleic acid of the coronavirus, and 31 of those samples were collected from the section of the market dedicated to the sale of wild animals, the CDC said.
Footage taken from inside the market show wild animals such as snakes, raccoon dogs, porcupines and deer inside cages waiting to be purchased. The footage, which has not been independently verified by CNN, was posted on Chinese social media site Weibo.
The market has since been closed for disinfection.
Professor Leo Poon from Hong Kong University was one of the first scientists to decode the coronavirus.
`` I would believe that this Wuhan outbreak was caused by animal virus and then the animal actually carried this back to the human, '' Poon said.
China's demand for wild animals is largely driven by the belief that these animals provide health benefits when consumed.
The coronavirus that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak was traced to the civet cat, a wild animal considered a delicacy in parts of South China. The civet is used in the popular `` Dragon-Tiger-Phoenix Soup, '' which is believed by locals to help with arthritis, stimulate poor blood flow and revive decreased libido, according to Slate.
Despite the SARS outbreak claiming more than 700 lives, recent footage shows civet cats being back on sale at a market in South China.
Call for a sustained ban
While the trade of endangered species such as elephants and rhinos is already illegal in China, unprotected species can often be found in markets in smaller cities. Now, wildlife advocates are applauding China's move to temporarily ban the trade of wild animals, but some believe the ban should be permanent.
`` Wuhan is a wake-up call. This is mother nature's revenge, '' said Freeland founder Steve Galster in a video posted to the organization's Facebook page. Freeland is working to end human and wildlife trafficking.
`` The way to prevent further outbreaks of this coronavirus from killing more people is to stop the wildlife trade. China just banned the wildlife trade. Let's keep that ban permanent, '' Galster said in the post.
He added that a permanent ban would not only save human lives, but a lot of wildlife globally as well. | business |
D.R. Horton’ s Solid Earnings Boost Builder Stocks, Even as New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall | Home builder D.R. Horton’ s earnings report on Monday gives investors reason to believe the sector will have a solid earnings season. Beyond that, though, the outlook is less certain.
For its fiscal first quarter, the Arlington, Texas-based builder reported $ 4.02 billion in sales, up 14% from a year earlier and above the $ 3.75 billion analysts surveyed by FactSet predicted. The beat came as net sales orders for homes jumped 19% on a unit basis ( and 22% on a dollar basis) and as the average sales price rose significantly.
Adjusted per-share earnings, which exclude a $ 32.9 million tax benefit that was retroactively reinstated during the quarter, among other items, came in at 89 cents. That’ s slightly under the 91 cents analysts expected.
Shares of D.R. Horton ( ticker: DHI) gained 2.5% in midday trading. The report gave a lift to fellow builders, most of which are set to report their own earnings over the next month or two. KB Home ( KBH) rose 0.5% while Lennar ( LEN) and PulteGroup ( PHM) each rose 0.7%. Those gains, while pretty modest, came as the S & P 500 fell 1.4% amid mounting concerns over the coronavirus outbreak in China.
While investors can look to D.R. Horton’ s latest results for clues for what’ s to come from the rest of the sector this earnings season, some moderation in the pace of home sales in the months to come is likely.
A separate report released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau, together with the Department of Housing and Urban Development, showed new-home sales unexpectedly dropped in December to the lowest level since July. The 0.4% month-over-month decrease to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 followed a 1.1% decline in November ( the November number was revised down from an initially reported increase of 1.3%). Economists polled by Bloomberg anticipated a 1.5% rise in December new-home sales from November.
Monthly housing data can be volatile. But some economists have been warning that recent strength is more a recovery from an 18-month weak stretch than it is representative of a boom.
The bottom line, said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, is that housing activity continues to improve, and is likely to continue to do so. “ However, it is also likely to be a relatively slow and fitful process, ” he said.
Prices and supply are two big reasons investors in the housing sector might maintain some caution, especially as many builders’ stocks sit near historic highs. As inventories have remained low, in part constrained by the ability of builders to hire, prices are rising. While that’ s a good thing for the stocks for now, it’ s exacerbating an affordability problem that is making it harder for a new generation of buyers to enter the market, even as interest rates and unemployment remain so low.
D.R. Horton, for its part, said home-sale prices rose 3% in its latest quarter from a year earlier—what executives during a call with analysts and investors on Monday called a “ significant ” increase. | business |
Tracking the Wuhan virus outbreak's impact on business and travel | A rapidly spreading viral outbreak is disrupting travel and business in China, which has taken unprecedented steps to lock down cities with a combined 40 million people around the epicenter in Wuhan to try to slow its progress.
For global corporations, Wuhan is an important hub. Of about 2,000 cities in China with factories and other facilities in Bloomberg’ s supply chain database, the city ranks 13th, with about 500 facilities.
The province of Hubei has 1,016, making it seventh of 32 such jurisdictions. U.S.-based companies have 44 facilities there, and European ones about 40, the data show. Many plants are in the auto and transportation industries, and big names include PepsiCo. Inc. and Siemens AG.
As the death toll from the pneumonia-like illness rises and cases are found in neighboring Asian countries, including South Korea and Singapore, as well as in the U.S., the economic impact of the novel coronavirus could be widespread.
Here is a rundown of what big companies are saying so far about the impact.
Honda Motor Co. is planning to evacuate from Wuhan about 30 Japanese staff, family members and employees visiting on business trips, Teruhiko Tatebe, a Tokyo-based spokesman, said by phone.
The carmaker has informed the Japanese government that it wishes to utilize the charter jet planned to evacuate Japanese citizens. A handful of staff needed to maintain local operations will remain in the city.
PSA Group, the French maker of Peugeot cars and other brands, said it will evacuate its expatriate staff and their families from the Wuhan area. A total of 38 people will leave, the company said in a statement.
Hennes and Mauritz AB, the clothing retailer better known as H & M has closed a total of 13 stores in the region. Svenska Dagbladet reported. China is the company’ s fifth-biggest market in terms of revenue, with 524 stores as of Aug. 31.
Ikea closed its warehouse in Wuhan on Jan. 23, according to the same report.
Remy Cointreau SA, the French cognac maker, abandoned its forecasts for this year after a slump in Hong Kong dented sales in the Christmas period and as the viral outbreak threatens business in China, the source of 20 percent of its profit, according to Jefferies Financial Group estimates.
“ Clearly we are concerned, ” Chief Financial Officer Luca Marotta said of the coronavirus during an earnings conference call. “ We do not have any scenarios on a quantified basis. It is evolving hour after hour. ”
McDonald’ s Corp., which had about 3,000 stores in China at the end of 2018, temporarily closed locations across five cities in Hubei province due to the virus, including Wuhan.
The Chicago-based company is taking extra preventative measures in the rest of the country, including taking the temperature of workers upon arrival and giving out hand sanitizers to diners.
Walt Disney Co., the world’ s largest theme park operator, said it was closing its Disneyland resort in Shanghai effective Jan. 25. The company is offering refunds to guests who bought theme park tickets or reserved rooms in its hotels.
“ We will continue to carefully monitor the situation and be in close contact with the local government, and we will announce the reopening date upon confirmation, ” it said in a statement.
Starbucks Corp., the Seattle-based chain with about 4,100 cafes in China, said it’ s closing some locations, without providing more details.
Delta Air Lines Inc. issued a travel waiver that allows passengers traveling to, from or through Beijing and Shanghai between Jan. 24 and Jan. 31 to change their itinerary once without having to pay a fee.
Avnet Inc., the Phoenix-based distributor of computer products and semiconductors, said it hadn’ t seen an impact so far. “ But if it gets worse and they start shutting down airplanes, etc., then that will have a different effect on shipments out of China, ” CEO Bill Amelio said during a conference call.
Asked whether the area is a meaningful region from an electronics manufacturing perspective, Amelio answered: “ Of course, it is. ”
American Airlines Group Inc. President Robert Isom said it is too soon to see an impact. “ Our network isn’ t that extensive in Asia. But we’ re on top of it, ” he said during a conference call. “ We’ ve seen viruses in the past that we’ ve had to make accommodations for and to be prepared for, we’ re doing all those same things right now. ”
Keppel Corp., the Singapore-based conglomerate that specialized in marine oil rigs and which has about 170 employees in Wuhan and operations across China, said it hadn’ t seen a direct impact yet.
“ We have advised our operations there and our staff there to take the necessary precautions. We are watching this very closely, ” CEO Loh Chin Hua said on an earnings call.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. was among the first global corporations to comment on the coronavirus on an earnings conference call. “ We’ ve been coordinating closely with the CDC to ensure that we’ re taking all the necessary steps to ensure that our customers and employees can travel safely, ” CEO Oscar Munoz said. “ By working closely together, we have in the past effectively managed situations like this. ” | tech |
US coronavirus cases: What we know so far | There are more US citizens traveling abroad who 've been infected with coronavirus, including at least 24 Americans on a cruise ship in Japan.
The World Health Organization and the United States have declared the outbreak a public health emergency, but US officials have urged residents not to panic.
The novel coronavirus, which has sickened thousands and killed more than 1,300 people in China, belongs to a large family of viruses that mostly sicken animals. But this coronavirus, like SARS and MERS, `` jumped the species barrier '' to infect people on a large scale, the CDC said.
Here's what we know about the cases in the US:
Texas: 1
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the 15th case of coronavirus on Thursday.
The patient has been under the 14-day federal quarantine since arriving at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas with other evacuees from China on February 7, the CDC said. The patient is now receiving medical care at a nearby hospital, the CDC said.
California: 8
California has more than half of confirmed cases of the virus in the country at eight.
San Diego County
An evacuee at the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar was the 14th confirmed case of the novel coronavirus in the United States, the CDC said Wednesday.
The patient is among a group that was under a federal quarantine order after arriving at the base on a State Department-chartered flight on February 7, the CDC said. The patient was being treated at UC San Diego Health, the CDC said.
The virus was confirmed Monday in another patient who had arrived earlier at the Miramar base from Wuhan. The patient, who was being cared for at UC San Diego Health, is doing well with minimal symptoms, hospital officials said.
San Benito County
The confirmed cases are in a husband and wife, both 57, according to San Benito County Public Health Services
The husband had recently traveled from Wuhan, China. His wife hadn't -- another case of person-to-person transmission.
The couple had stayed at home since the man's return from China, according to Dr. Martin Fenstersheib, the county's interim public health officer. But on February 3, the couple was transported from San Benito County to an undisclosed hospital in San Francisco, said Rachael Kagan, a spokeswoman for the San Francisco Department of Public Health.
Santa Clara County
The ninth confirmed case in the country was identified February 2 as an adult woman who recently traveled to Wuhan, the Santa Clara County Public Health Department in California said.
The patient is a visitor in Santa Clara County, health officials said, and arrived on January 23 to visit family. She has remained at home ever since, except to seek medical care twice. `` She has been regularly monitored and was never sick enough to be hospitalized, '' the statement said.
Health officials in Santa Clara County on January 31 said a man became infected in China. Upon returning to Northern California on January 24, the man self-isolated and did not leave home, except to seek medical care. He was not sick enough to be hospitalized.
Los Angeles County
Details are sparse about a confirmed Los Angeles County patient, which was announced on January 26 by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. The patient is being treated at a local hospital, though the health department didn't disclose how long the person sought treatment after exposure to the virus.
The patient is a returning traveler from Wuhan, China, the department said.
Orange County
An Orange County man in his 50s flew into Los Angeles International Airport from Wuhan earlier this month. The county found out January 23, and the CDC confirmed his results that month. He's in a local hospital.
Washington state: 1
The first confirmed US coronavirus patient, a 35-year-old man, sought treatment at an urgent care center in the state after returning from Wuhan. The urgent care center sent his samples to the CDC, which confirmed he had the coronavirus.
He entered isolated care at a hospital in Everett, about 30 miles north of Seattle, on January 23. He received treatment in an isolated gurney designed for patients with highly contagious diseases, and a robot took his vitals. He was discharged from the hospital on February 3, according to a statement from Providence Regional Medical Center. He remains in isolation at home undergoing treatment, the hospital said.
He's in stable condition, said Dr. George Diaz, the man's physician and an infectious disease expert. There's no evidence that he transmitted the virus to anyone else.
Illinois: 2
The two Chicago patients, a woman and her husband in their 60s, were discharged February 6 from a hospital and are in isolation at their home under guidance from the CDC and the Illinois Department of Public Health, AMITA Health St. Alexius Medical Center spokesman Timothy Nelson told CNN.
`` With it being an uncomfortable situation, the care and services we 've received have been great. Everyone's been very kind and very respectful, '' the patients, who were not publicly identified, said in a statement from the hospital. `` This has been the best health care experience we 've ever had, but we're definitely looking forward to getting home and getting life back to normal. ''
The woman's case was the first travel-associated case in the US. She was diagnosed a few days after she returned from Wuhan on January 13.
Her husband, who did not travel to China, was diagnosed in late January. His was the first case of person-to-person transmission of the virus in the US, the CDC confirmed.
Arizona: 1
The state health department confirmed that the patient is an `` adult member '' of the Arizona State University community, though it didn't release the patient's age or gender.
The patient called their health care provider when they began to experience mild respiratory symptoms. The CDC confirmed the coronavirus on January 26.
The patient isn't hospitalized, but is self-isolated at home, the department said.
Students at the university petitioned the administration to cancel classes, saying they felt unsafe with a case of the virus on campus.
Massachusetts: 1
On February 1, officials confirmed a student in his 20s at the Boston campus of the University of Massachusetts had the virus.
The student had returned from Wuhan on January 29. He sought medical treatment after his return and has been isolated ever since. The few close contacts he had have been identified and monitored for symptoms.
The case poses no increased risk to other students on the schools ' campus, the medical director of the Boston Public Health Commission told reporters Saturday. He's `` doing quite well '' in quarantine at his home and is being monitored by public health nurses.
Wisconsin: 1
The 12th confirmed case was announced on February 5 by the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. The adult patient has a history of travel to Beijing and was exposed to known cases while in China. The person is isolated at home and doing well, the department said.
Wisconsin health officials maintained that the threat to the general public remains low.
Who's still at risk
The CDC is monitoring 600 people who have recently returned from Wuhan under federal quarantine, the first mandatory quarantine in more than 50 years.
Though health officials have confirmed person-to-person contact, they maintain the immediate risk to the public is low.
There are more than 570 confirmed cases of coronavirus and two deaths in more than 25 countries and territories outside mainland China. Worldwide, more than 60,000 people have been infected.
What's being done
Restrictions apply to US citizens who have been in China's Hubei province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, in the two weeks before their return to the United States. Upon their return, those citizens will be subject to a mandatory quarantine of up to 14 days, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said January 31.
Last month, the US State Department raised its China travel advisory to `` Do Not Travel '' and warned that it could put travel restrictions into effect with `` little to no advance notice. '' The CDC recommended US citizens to avoid nonessential travel to the country.
`` If you are a traveler who has recently returned from the impacted area, we want you to be vigilant with the symptoms and signs of this coronavirus, '' said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
Local health officials are cracking down on misinformation related to the virus, including fake reports of confirmed cases and conspiracy theories about its spread. The most accurate information comes from county, state and federal health departments and is updated regularly as officials learn more.
Otherwise, the CDC encourages people to follow flu season protocol: Wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, avoid ill people and stay home and avoid public situations if they're ill. A coronavirus vaccine would take at least a year to reach the public.
The CDC does not recommend Americans wear surgical masks in public. Surgical masks are effective against respiratory infections but not airborne infections. | business |
Wuhan coronavirus: Thousands of cases confirmed as China goes into emergency mode | Making that task more difficult is the fact that the virus can be spread before any symptoms appear, Chinese health authorities said Sunday, meaning carriers may not realize they are infected before they transmit the virus to others.
Across China, 15 cities with a combined population of over 57 million people -- more than the entire population of South Korea -- have been placed under full or partial lockdown.
Wuhan itself has been effectively quarantined, with all routes in and out of the city closed or highly regulated. The government announced it is sending an additional 1,200 health workers -- along with 135 People's Liberation Army medical personnel -- to help the city's stretched hospital staff.
Wuhan Mayor Zhou Xianwang said on Sunday that the number of cases could rise by another thousand.
The disease has also spread widely across China, with almost 70 cases confirmed in the capital Beijing, including a nine-month-old girl -- the youngest known case to be confirmed so far.
China has extended the Lunar New Year holiday to February 2 in an attempt to dissuade people from traveling and spreading the virus further. Almost all mass celebrations for the festival have been canceled, and authorities have urged people to avoid holding traditional large family gatherings.
Shanghai's government said Monday that all businesses in the city should remain shut until February 9. Schools in the city have been suspended until February 17, and quarantine inspections for workers returning to the city have been strengthened.
Only businesses the government deems vital to the operation of China's biggest city -- such as gas stations, pharmacies and supermarkets -- will be allowed to remain open, the municipal government said.
The severity of the emerging crisis is evident in the government's response. The Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party -- the country's top political body, headed by President Xi Jinping -- has taken direct control of operations. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Wuhan Monday to tour local hospitals, according to state media.
China's Ministry of Finance and National Health Commission has allotted 60.33 billion yuan ( US $ 8.7 billion) towards fighting the deadly coronavirus this year, the ministry said on Monday.
Meanwhile, Zhou has admitted that the government didn't disclose information on the coronavirus in a `` timely fashion. ''
In a live interview with state-run CCTV, Zhou said he took responsibility for the decision to lock down the city at the center of the outbreak -- a move he called `` unprecedented in human history. ''
He said he knew that people were `` not satisfied '' with the rate at which his government had released information on the coronavirus.
`` If anyone is asked to take the responsibility or people are complaining, as long as the epidemic can be controlled, we are willing to resign to take on the responsibility [ of locking down the city ], '' he said on Monday.
Worldwide effort
The virus has spread quickly around the world since it was first discovered in Wuhan last month. In a paper published Sunday, scientists at Imperial College London estimated that each person infected has gone on to spread the virus to two or three others.
`` This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak, '' they added.
At a press conference on Monday, Professor Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong warned that `` self-sustaining epidemics '' could be expected in major cities across China, now that the virus has spread there. Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, all of which have reported cases, could export infections to different places around the world.
`` We hope that with intervention in other cities in China, the situation will be more positive, '' he said. `` ( However), containment measures may not always be effective, and will certainly be ineffective at some point in the long term. ''
Outside mainland China, at least 13 other places have reported cases of the virus, including France, Australia, Canada and the United States. Australia reported its fifth confirmed case Monday.
Switzerland's Federal Office for Public Health confirmed on Monday that authorities are testing for several suspected coronavirus cases at one hospital in the country.
In Hong Kong, authorities said residents of Hubei, the province of which Wuhan is the capital, and people who have visited the region in the last 14 days, will not be able to enter the city. The order does not cover Hong Kong residents, though they may be placed under quarantine.
There were protests in the northern Hong Kong town of Fanling -- near the Chinese border -- after it was announced that an unoccupied apartment building there would be converted to a `` temporary '' quarantine center. Residents set up roadblocks and clashed with police, and on Sunday the authorities said they were abandoning the plan.
Memories of the deadly 2003 SARS outbreak run deep in Hong Kong, and paranoia is already starting to settle in, with a rush purchases of face masks leading to shortages which may not be relieved until February, due to the Lunar New Year holiday and demand from China.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced over the weekend that the threat level from the virus has been raised from `` serious '' to `` emergency. '' Schools in the semi-autonomous Chinese city will be suspended until February 17.
On Thursday, David Heymann, the chairman of a World Health Organization ( WHO) committee gathering data on the outbreak, said the virus spreads more easily from person to person than previously thought. `` We are now seeing second and third generation spread, '' Heymann said.
In the US, where five cases of the disease have been confirmed, Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that `` we need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope that it is not. ''
Repatriation efforts to begin
Several countries, including the US, Australia, France and Spain are looking to repatriate citizens and government employees from China.
Australia's Health Minister Greg Hunt told national broadcaster ABC Radio Monday that Canberra was working on a plan to bring 100 `` young Australians '' out of Wuhan.
`` We are working to make sure that there's support for those Australians and that we are there. We are also working on, as are other countries, to try to secure their ability to return to Australia, '' Hunt said.
France's Health Minister Agnes Buzyn said on Sunday that France will fly its citizens back from Wuhan to France `` in the middle of next week. '' Buzyn said those who return to France will be monitored in one place for 14 days, to avoid any spread of the virus.
A spokesman for the Spanish Foreign Ministry told CNN that it was `` working with other European countries affected to organize a joint repatriation flight. ''
Italian, UK and Dutch authorities all said on Monday that they were considering evacuation or repatriation efforts to remove their citizens from the affected area.
Tracing the virus
Since the Wuhan virus was first identified in December, Chinese and international scientists have been studying it intensely, tracking its origin and working on a vaccine to fight it.
Officials from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) said Monday that they had successfully isolated the virus in environmental samples taken from a seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan believed to be the source of the outbreak.
Thirty-three of the 585 environmental samples collected from the Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market were found to contain the nucleic acid of the coronavirus, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.
Of those samples, 31 came from the section of the market dedicated to the sale of wild animals, the CDC said.
Chinese authorities announced Sunday that the trading of wild animals would be suspended nationwide, as experts lobbied for the government to put in permanent restrictions or even a ban.
Any form of wildlife trade will be strictly prohibited on platforms including marketplaces, supermarkets, dining places and e-commerce sites, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration said in a statement. All sites were wild animals are raised will be quarantined.
Considerable attention has been paid on both the Chinese internet and in the western tabloid press to the eating of wild animals in parts of China -- particularly bats and civet cats, a mammal native to Asia that was previously linked to the 2003 SARS outbreak. | business |
Japan firms brace for impact from China's virus-related ban on outbound group travel | China’ s ban on all outbound group travel to stop the deadly coronavirus from spreading comes as a blow to Japan’ s retail and tourism sectors, which had been counting on robust spending by Chinese visitors during the Lunar New Year holidays.
“ We may see an impact on our sales, as 80 percent of visiting foreign customers at our flagship Hankyu department store in Osaka are Chinese, ” an official of operator H2O Retailing Corp. said of the group travel ban imposed Monday.
Sales at department stores in Japan slumped in 2019, falling 1.4 percent from the previous year on a same-store basis for the second straight year, with the drop blamed on bad summer weather and a warm winter.
“ If the number of foreign visitors drops, the bustle in cities will certainly fade, ” said a 50-year-old restaurant operator in Tokyo’ s Ginza district, a popular shopping area for Chinese tourists.
A 43-year-old woman operating a shoe store in Ginza said: “ At this time of year, sales are usually weak. On top of that, I’ m wondering whether customers from China will stop coming. ”
Analysts at Nomura Securities Co. estimate that a 10 percent fall in the annual number of foreign visitors would lop 0.1 percent off Japan’ s gross domestic product.
Hidenori Suezawa, a financial and fiscal analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., said that on top of the fall in inbound visitors, a spread of the virus in Japan could lead to people going out less and cause cancellations of events, pushing down consumer spending.
An official at a major hotel chain said the Chinese travel ban was “ disappointing ” since it comes as at time when Japan was preparing to attract overseas visitors ahead of the 2020 Olympic Games.
Other analysts pointed to the potential impact on major Japanese manufacturers due to disruptions in supply chains. Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the virus originated, is home to manufacturing plants belonging to automakers Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co., as well as France’ s Renault SA.
Japanese tourism companies were busy responding to cancellations of tours by Chinese travelers, who have been a major source of revenue for them.
Hato Bus Co., is known for offering tours around Tokyo, said Chinese tourists, including two from Wuhan, had canceled their tours.
The operator will install disinfectant alcohol in all of its buses starting Tuesday.
The decrease in Chinese visitors comes as a setback for Japan’ s goal to attract 40 million visitors from overseas this year.
The number of Chinese travelers jumped to 9.59 million in 2019, a twentyfold increase from 2003, buoyed by gradual easing of visa requirements.
At present, Chinese account for 30 percent of the total number of foreign visitors to Japan, and have been the largest group since 2015.
Round-trip flights connecting China and Japan reached 1,400 a week in the current wintertime flight schedule from October to March, up 19 percent from the summertime schedule from April to September.
An official at a private railway operator, whose earnings have been lifted by inbound visitors, said that “ it would be severe if China goes as far as banning travel by individuals. We had expected a rise in passengers during the Lunar New Year holidays. ”
A senior official at the Japan Tourism Agency said: “ We still can not see the extent of implementation of the group travel ban, but there is no doubt that customers from China will drop. ” | tech |
Stocks tumble with oil; yen climbs with Treasuries as fears over coronavirus deepen | Stocks and crude oil prices tumbled, and havens including the yen, gold and Treasuries jumped, as fears deepened about the rising impact of the deadly coronavirus.
With no sign of the disease’ s containment, traders rushed out of risk assets. Contracts on the S & P 500 index fell more than 1 percent before paring losses. The Nikkei 225 average tumbled over 2 percent at one point. Futures on Chinese shares fell more than 5 percent as the country extended its Lunar New Year holiday. Oil dropped over 2 percent in New York, while 10-year Treasury yields sank to the lowest since October.
The moves came on a day with limited trading options in Asia, as markets were shut in locations including China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia due to holidays.
Gold jumped as the spread of the coronavirus globally spurred demand for haven assets.
Prices rose as much as 1.1 percent as risk-off sentiment swept markets.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, airlines and retailers were hurt as China banned group overseas travel by its citizens for the Lunar New Year holiday in response to the health situation.
Tourism-related issues met with selling amid fears that the spread of the virus could weigh on the number of tourists to Japan. Marine transportation issues were also among the decliners.
With many Asian financial markets closed for the holiday, “ investors focused on selling stocks in Tokyo due to uncertainty about how far the infection would spread, ” said Maki Sawada, vice president of the investment research and investor services department at Nomura Securities Co.
“ Concerns about the global economy have been increasingly raised ” as the crisis disrupts Chinese businesses and travel, Sawada said.
China announced an unspecified extension to the weeklong holiday, amplifying the economic impact. Beijing also suspended sales of package tours, hitting firms around the world that rely on Chinese travelers’ spending.
“ I’ m starting to think cash is the right place to be for the next few weeks, ” Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at Axitrader, wrote in a note Monday. “ Any economic shock to China’ s colossal industrial and consumption engines will spread rapidly to other countries through the increased trade and financial linkages associated with globalization. ”
The virus news is coinciding with an earnings season in full swing. Apple Inc., Facebook Inc. and Samsung are among those due to report this week. Investors will also have a Federal Reserve policy meeting and Mark Carney’ s last monetary policy decision as the Bank of England’ s governor to monitor. | tech |
Scientists are already working on cures for Wuhan coronavirus | NEW YORK – We aren’ t completely unprepared for the Wuhan coronavirus now spreading around the world. Just ask the people who work in Tyvek suits and respirators, such as epidemiologist Timothy Sheahan of the University of North Carolina.
He has been studying coronaviruses since 2003, shortly after a similar virus triggered the SARS outbreak, which also started in China and spread to North America. In the end, it killed fewer than 800 people but raised legitimate fears about a global pandemic.
Now there’ s a drug called remdesivir which Sheahan and his colleagues at UNC, in collaboration with Gilead Sciences, have been testing in a level 3 containment facility for its ability to fight a whole range of coronaviruses — so named for their spiky shape, which resembles a crown.
Sheahan said their drug targets an enzyme that different kinds of coronaviruses need to replicate themselves. They’ ve tested the drug in mice infected with the SARS virus, as well as MERS — Middle East respiratory syndrome — another coronavirus that has killed 851 people since it broke out in 2012. They published the MERS results this month in Nature Communications.
Clinical trials in these cases usually test drugs’ effectiveness as compared with other therapies, rather than against a placebo. Such comparative testing is still being done with Ebola — which is currently infecting people in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Though Ebola is not a coronavirus, it is, like SARS and the new infection, a so-called RNA virus, and so doctors tested remdesivir against other Ebola therapies. It didn’ t perform as well as a different kind of therapy, but it did prove reasonably safe.
Sheahan says his work is part of a program on emerging infectious diseases, funded by the National Institutes of Health. How did the NIH have the foresight to fund research on coronavirus cures, when there hasn’ t been a case of SARS since 2004 and there’ s little fear that MERS will spread in the United States?
Experts say they knew it was likely that another dangerous coronavirus would emerge in China. That’ s because SARS — which stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome — was eventually found to come from wild bats, and bats carry a whole cauldron of different strains of SARS-like coronaviruses. Bats are considered a “ reservoir ” for coronaviruses because they can carry them without getting sick.
The story of SARS is well-told in David Quammen’ s book “ Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic. ” A determined group of investigators swabbing thousands of animals eventually found that people in China got the disease from eating small mammals called civets.
The civets were likely infected by bats in a so-called wet market, where a vast array of wild and domestic species are stored in stacked up cages and exposed to one another’ s wastes and germs before being butchered. The Chinese killed thousands of civets in an attempt to eradicate the virus, before they realized it was going to remain indefinitely in the bodies of wild bats — which some people there still consider a delicacy. The new disease appears to have emerged from a seafood market that also sold live mammals and birds, though the original animal host has yet to be identified.
SARS was, ultimately, the story of a bullet dodged. According to Quammen’ s account, the factor that worked in humanity’ s favor was the pattern of contagion. While influenza tends to spread most readily when people first get sick, before the peak of their symptoms, SARS becomes most transmissible during or after symptoms hit their peak. It’ s a lot easier to quarantine people who are or have been sick than those who have yet to notice symptoms.
If the scientists working in level 3 containment facilities to develop cures can be thought of as the “ special ops ” part of the effort to protect the public, there’ s also important work being done by the infantry: making sure hospitals worldwide are using the best standards for sanitation and protection of health care workers. All hospitals should be equipped to diagnose the disease, says virologist David Sanders of Purdue University, and regional centers should be set up as needed to treat patients.
One chilling aspect of the SARS epidemic was the speed with which health care workers got sick and died. It happened in Asia, and then in Toronto, where the disease first appeared in North America. Investigations of the Toronto hospitals showed lapses, in some cases simply because health care workers had no idea what they were dealing with. SARS wasn’ t a global pandemic, but it was still a tragic story as dozens of doctors and nurses, many of them young, were struck down in the line of duty.
Experts say this Wuhan virus is unlikely to turn into a global pandemic — and whether it becomes as tragic as SARS depends on cutting-edge science and simple sanitation. The fact that our world is full of potentially deadly viruses is scary, but we are not helpless in the face of them. | tech |
Japan to designate coronavirus special infectious disease, allowing use of funds for urgent treatment | Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday revealed a plan to designate pneumonia caused by a new strain of coronavirus as a special infectious disease, with the aim of making it possible to provide urgent treatment to patients using public funds.
The designation will allow the government to adopt similar measures as those taken for SARS ( severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS ( Middle East respiratory syndrome) without amending the law.
These measures include the compulsory hospitalization of infected people at one of approximately 400 designated medical institutions in Japan, as well as disinfection of sites where the virus has been detected. Doctors will be obliged to report any patients who test positive for the virus.
A government official also said Monday that Japan will dispatch a chartered plane to the central Chinese city of Wuhan, possibly on Tuesday, to bring back citizens who wish to return home amid a deadly outbreak.
The government plans to have the plane fly multiple times from Narita Airport in Chiba Prefecture to Wuhan, as early as possible, pending negotiations with Chinese authorities.
The aircraft may also deliver relief supplies when flying toward the capital of Hubei Province if requested by China, the official said.
All Nippon Airways Co. said last week that it would suspend all flights between Wuhan, where the new virus was first identified, and Narita for the rest of January due to the outbreak. Direct flights usually connect Wuhan to around 50 cities in the world, including Tokyo and Osaka.
As of Friday, there were about 710 Japanese registered in the province, according to the Japanese government. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi told a Diet panel Monday that Tokyo has confirmed some 560 Japanese live in the province.
Honda Motor Co. said Monday it will have some 30 people — its employees and their families who are now in Wuhan — board a government-chartered plane to send them home.
A few employees of the company will remain in the city to maintain the plants, which are not currently in operation due to the Lunar New Year holiday. It remains unclear whether the plants can resume operations following the break, a company source said.
Wuhan is known to have a thriving automobile industry and is home to manufacturing plants belonging to Japanese carmakers Nissan Motor Co. and Honda, as well as France’ s Renault SA.
Japanese retail chain Aeon Co., which operates a mall in Wuhan, said it will evacuate some of the 12 Japanese staff there, using the government-chartered flight. The families of the employees have already returned to Japan, the company said.
Semiconductor equipment-maker Tokyo Electron Ltd. and logistics company Nippon Express Co. are among other Japanese firms that will take similar emergency steps.
For those who return home on the chartered plane, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government said it will offer health consultation at hospitals.
China has more than 2,700 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the virus, with at least 80 deaths and over 460 patients in a critical condition, according to the Chinese government.
The 11 million residents of Wuhan are in virtual lockdown as authorities seek to stop the spread of the virus.
In Japan, a fourth case of the virus has been confirmed, the health ministry said Sunday.
The patient is a man in his 40s who arrived in Japan on Wednesday as a tourist from Wuhan, the ministry said, adding he is in a stable condition.
The man is said to have had no symptoms at the time of arrival, but developed a fever Thursday and went to see a doctor the following day in Aichi Prefecture, according to the ministry.
The man was hospitalized in the prefecture and later tested positive for the virus, it said, adding he is said to have worn a mask while traveling.
Meanwhile, Motegi said it was not yet clear whether a Japanese national hospitalized in Wuhan with severe pneumonia had been infected with the virus. | tech |
Global businesses are feeling the effects of the coronavirus | Chinese officials on Monday announced that the death toll from the coronavirus has risen to 80, with nearly 2,800 cases confirmed in mainland China and several dozen more in countries such as the United States, Australia and Japan. With over 57 million people in 15 cities across China on lockdown, the crisis is hitting the retail, travel and tourism industries particularly hard during the peak Lunar New Year season.
Companies say they are following cues from officials, which means the pain could last past the holiday season. Beijing has already extended the Lunar New Year holiday from January 30 to February 2 to try and prevent the spread of the virus. A government official told reporters Monday that authorities are considering a further extension.
Here's what some major companies are doing to try and contain the outbreak.
Starbucks ( SBUX) announced over the weekend that it is closing shops and suspending delivery services in the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and the wider Hubei Province. The coffee chain operates 90 shops in the central Chinese province, according to the company's website.
KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants are also closed in the city of Wuhan until further notice. Parent company Yum China ( YUMC) says that it will continue to evaluate the need for `` additional actions. ''
McDonald's ( MCD) has shut restaurants in Wuhan and four other cities in Hubei.
Disney ( DIS) has closed its parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong, just as the resorts were gearing up to usher in what it called the `` Year of the Mouse, '' a play on China's Year of the Rat. Disney had put up new Chinese New Year-themed decorations throughout the parks, launched new merchandise and introduced several Lunar New Year dining options.
Shares in luxury goods companies have taken a hit on concerns about lower sales during what is usually a busy shopping season. The stocks of LVMH ( LVMHF), Kering ( PPRUF) and Cartier watch maker Richemont all fell more than 5% last week.
Companies with a large presence in Wuhan are also preparing for trouble. Renault ( RNLSY), one of several automakers with a major manufacturing plant in the city, said last week that it was `` studying carefully '' the issue. Automotive factories, like other businesses, were already closed for the holidays.
Peugeot ( PUGOY) tweeted Saturday that it will repatriate its expat staff and their families from '' the Wuhan region. ''
`` At the same time, the group and its Chinese partner are mobilized to implement measures to take care of the Chinese employees of their joint venture, '' it added.
The coronavirus outreak comes `` at probably the worst time for China, '' said Jude Blanchette, head of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The Lunar New Year `` is the single biggest economic event in China where last year there was upwards of $ 150 billion spent during the period, so the economic implications could be significant, '' he told CNN last week.
The period marks the largest annual human migration on Earth, during which time hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers usually cram themselves into homebound trains, buses and planes for family reunions. The coronavirus outbreak has prompted millions to rethink those plans.
The overall number of trips made across China on Saturday, the first day of the Lunar New Year period, plunged nearly 30% from a year ago, Liu Xiaoming, vice minister for transport, told reporters on Sunday. Travel by plane and train fell more than 41%, he added.
Major hotel chains including IHG ( GXMLF), Marriott ( MAR) and Accor ( ACCYY) said they will waive cancellation fees until February 8 for reservations at hotels in China and beyond.
Airline operators including Cathay ( CPCAY) and Qantas ( QABSY) said they will offer full refunds for passengers traveling to and froms China from January 24 until the end of February.
China's largest travel agency Trip.com ( TCOM), also known as CTrip, said last week that it would offer customers free cancellations on all hotels, car rental services and tickets for tourist attractions in Wuhan until January 31. The stock dropped 18% last week in New York.
Trip.com's business `` in the short-term, it will take a hit, '' Jane Sun told CNN in an interview on the sidelines of the Davos conference last week. But she anticipates that once the crisis is over, business will rebound thanks to pent-up demand.
The business woes come as the pace of China's economic growth is hitting historic lows and the country continues to suffer from the effects of the trade war with the United States.
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is already spurring people to hunker down and avoid going outside. That kind of behavior could deal a huge blow to the service sector, which now accounts for about 52% of the Chinese economy.
-- Paul LaMonica, Cristina Alesci, Clare Sebastian, Richard Quest and Alexandra Lin contributed to this report. | business |
Cramer on selloff: 'This is the panic people have been waiting for ' | Investors who were waiting for the market to sink so they could buy stocks at cheaper prices should stay on the sidelines a little longer, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday.
`` This is the panic people have been waiting for, '' Cramer said on `` Squawk on the Street, '' referring to the worst sell-off on Wall Street in months on Monday as concerns about China's coronavirus intensifies.
`` We 've been saying over and over if we get an exogenous event that's when you get the sell-off, that's when you have to buy, '' the `` Mad Money '' host said. `` I think it's only timing when have to buy. … Give it a little break. ''
Cramer said that Apple stock, under pressure Monday with the rest of the market, could hold the key to where Wall Street goes next. `` I always said own it, don't trade it, '' he said. `` Why not wait now if you don't own it? ''
Apple is set to report earnings after the bell on Tuesday. The most valuable U.S. company, with a nearly $ 1.4 trillion market cap, is expected to deliver fiscal first-quarter revenue of $ 88.4 billion and earnings of $ 4.54 per share, according to FactSet estimates.
Shares of Apple, even with Monday's slide, were still up about 5.5% so far this year after soaring nearly 90% in 2019.
On Friday, stocks had their worst day of 2020, which had gotten off to a roaring start after last year's near 29% gain for the S & P 500, the best annual performance for the index since 2013.
`` I just don't think today '' is the day to buy broadly, Cramer said Monday, saying the market could take a `` second leg '' down if the World Health Organization were to declare the coronavirus a global emergency.
The WHO has yet to make that determination, even with more than 2,900 confirmed cases of the fast-spreading virus in China and 82 deaths. More than a dozen countries outside of China, including the United States, reported cases. The U.S. confirmed its fifth case on Sunday.
The new strain of coronavirus, first identified in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province last month, brings back memories of the SARS epidemic that rattled financial markets and the global economy in 2003.
On Friday, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC that the outbreak of coronavirus looks more contagious but less severe than SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, which sickened nearly 8,100 worldwide and killed 774.
Disclaimer | business |
Oil prices: Energy analysts fear impact of fast-spreading coronavirus | Oil prices slumped to multi-month lows on Monday, with energy market participants increasingly concerned about demand growth as the coronavirus spreads globally.
International benchmark Brent crude traded at $ 58.99 a barrel Monday afternoon, down nearly 2.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ( WTI) stood at $ 52.70, tumbling over 2.7%.
Both crude benchmarks have slipped to lows not seen since early October, as oil traders closely monitor the outbreak of a deadly pneumonia-like virus.
On Sunday, Chinese officials confirmed there had been more than 2,700 confirmed cases of coronavirus, including 461 people in a critical condition as the death toll rose to 80.
The virus, which started in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has spread to other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Macao and Hong Kong.
China has warned the ability of coronavirus to spread is getting stronger, spooking financial markets and prompting a sharp fall in oil prices.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a statement on Sunday that he was confident the outbreak would be contained.
In an attempt to soothe energy participants ' fears, Abdulaziz said, according to a Reuters report, that markets are `` primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative market expectations adopted by some market participants despite ( the virus ') very limited impact on global oil demand. ''
When asked whether Middle East producers — such as OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia — were likely to be much more concerned than they were letting on, John Carey, former deputy CEO of ADNOC Distribution, replied: `` I think there is a worry, no question. ''
`` Whilst I think oil prices will drop and probably stay down for a few months — as they did after the SARS virus — I think there is a lot of work gone on in the region to actually protect it. ''
`` I think it is going to bounce around ( and) I think you are going to see spikes, '' Carey told CNBC's `` Squawk Box Europe '' on Monday.
Saudi Arabia's Abdulaziz has insisted that OPEC, along with other allied non-OPEC producers, have the capability to steady the oil market if necessary.
The group, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, has been limiting supply to prop up crude futures and recently increased its agreed output reduction by 500,000 barrels per day ( b/d) to 1.7 million b/d through March.
Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said Monday that the brokerage had initially expected prices to `` bottom out '' at around $ 60 a barrel. But, `` the Chinese epidemic has gotten us wrong-footed ( and) further weakness is anticipated unless the epidemic is contained. ''
`` When it happens, prices are expected to stabilize and start climbing again in case OPEC reduces its production towards the 29 million ( barrels per day) mark. Until then bears party in heaven and bulls burn in hell, '' Varga said in a research note.
The World Health Organization ( WHO) has said that while the virus — which is spreading via human-to-human contact — is `` an emergency in China, '' it has not yet become a global health emergency.
Last week, economists told CNBC that the coronavirus may ultimately have more impact on sentiment than be a lasting negative for the economy or markets.
`` We have got this price below $ 60 a barrel right now and that's despite all the supply management constraints that OPEC and non-OPEC countries have all agreed, '' Paul Gambles, co-founder and managing partner of MBMG Group, told CNBC's `` Squawk Box Europe '' on Monday.
`` And it's despite the fact that, for the last year or so, we have ( had) some degree of geopolitical price premium built into the price as well. ''
`` So, when you take all that, it is actually saying to me that demand is pretty soft, '' Gambles said, before adding: `` That is just pointing in a very negative direction for the price. '' | business |
Oil tumbles on Coronavirus fear while Saudis see ‘ very limited’ impact - News for the Energy Sector | Oil tumbled on fears China’ s deadly coronavirus will crimp demand, prompting Saudi Arabia to say it was closely monitoring the situation.
Futures in London and New York plunged more than 3% as the death toll and the number of infections rose, while officials extended the Lunar New Year holiday to help stem the spread of the outbreak. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted that global oil demand may take a hit, but Saudi Arabia said it believes the crisis so far will have a “ very limited impact ” on consumption.
The virus is the latest upheaval for the oil market, which has been hit with turmoil in OPEC producers from the Middle East and North Africa. The market is also dealing with plentiful global crude supply, even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies trim output to prop up prices. Investors are selling crude amid a broad withdrawal from riskier assets and fears the virus will curtail fuel consumption as travel is restricted.
“ This could be one of the most significant demand destruction events in history, ” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group Inc., said by email. “ The impact has to be in the hundreds of thousands of barrels of demand loss and counting. Fears of a fast spread will kill oil demand. ”
Brent futures lost as much as $ 2.01, or 3.3%, to $ 58.68 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and traded at $ 59.37 as of 7:56 a.m. in London. The contract slid 6.4% last week, capping the longest run of weekly losses since June. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as $ 2.04, or 3.8%, to $ 52.15.
Hedge funds boosted bullish bets on WTI by 2.8% in the week ended Jan. 21, the most in a month, a day before prices tipped into the worst three-day slump since September.
The sell-off could gather pace as Brent approaches levels at which some U.S. shale companies have hedged their oil prices for 2020. For example, Occidental Petroleum Corp. has hedged this year in a complex deal at a price equivalent to $ 55 a barrel. As prices approach that level, the Wall Street banks which sold Occidental the insurance may be forced to sell to offset their exposure.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the world’ s largest oil exporter was closely monitoring the situation both for its impact on the Chinese economy and the oil market fundamentals. Yet, he said that the same “ extreme pessimism ” that’ s afflicting the market also occurred in 2003 during SARS, “ though it did not cause a significant reduction in oil demand ”.
“ The current impact on global markets, including oil and other commodities, is primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative expectations adopted by some market participants despite its very limited impact on global oil demand, ” the prince said in a statement. | general |
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Facial-recognition algorithms have been at the centre of privacy and ethics debates.
Credit: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty
World’ s biggest AI conference ponders ethics
“ There is no such thing as a neutral tech platform, ” warned developmental psychologist Celeste Kidd during her keynote talk at last month’ s Neural Information Processing Systems ( NeurIPS) conference. At the meeting, which hosted a record 13,000 attendees, researchers grappled with issues including
how to enact deeper structural change, to what extent companies should be made responsible for their technologies and the lack of ethical review process
for many of the papers published in the field.
Nature | 5 min read
Wuhan coronavirus outbreak
Travel in and out of the Chinese city of Wuhan has been suspended.
China Daily via Reuters
Coronavirus death toll continues to rise
• At least 80 deaths have now been associated with the virus, all in China, and
confirmed cases of the infection across the country have passed 2,700
. Cases have also been confirmed in Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, France, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Vietnam, Canada and Nepal. (
Nature | 7 min read, continuously updated
)
• Chinese authorities have closed off travel into and out of the virus-hit city of Wuhan in an attempt to stop the outbreak’ s spread. The mass quarantine, announced on 23 January, pens in more than 35 million people across the nation.
Nature
spoke to
three researchers about what it’ s like to be inside Wuhan
right now. (
Nature, 3 min read
)
• Structural biologist Rolf Hilgenfeld has been working on a cure for coronaviruses since the 2002–03 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS). He is
making his way to the epicentre of the outbreak, the locked-down city of Wuhan, to test early-stage drug candidates
in animals infected with the latest virus. (
Nature, 4 min read
)
• The speed and openness of the scientific response to the coronavirus has been unprecedented. Ten days after it was first reported in people, scientists in China and Australia released the virus’ s genetic sequence. Within hours,
research labs worldwide were putting all hands on deck to understand the disease
. “ This is one of the first times we’ re getting to see an outbreak of a new virus and have the scientific community sharing their data almost in real time, ” says molecular biologist Michael Letko. (
The Washington Post | 5 min read
)
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
“ The total number of people infected, if you combine SARS, MERS and this new virus, is under 12,500 people. That’ s not a market. The number of cases is too small. Pharmaceutical companies are not interested. ”
Structural biologist Rolf Hilgenfeld discusses the challenges of developing drugs that target coronaviruses. (
Nature
)
Research highlights: 1-minute reads
Giant ground sloths’ graveyard
The bones of
22 giant ground sloths that probably died en masse have been found at an Ecuadorian fossil site
. The fossils hint that families of the hulking animals could have gathered at an Ice Age waterhole.
World’ s oldest meteorite crater
A crater in Australia that was carved out by an incoming space rock has been
dated to 2.23 billion years old, making the scar the oldest known impact crater on Earth
. Geological activity has obliterated most of the planet’ s ancient crust, but one of the few remaining chunks lies in Western Australia, which is where researchers first documented the Yarrabubba crater in 2003.
Antarctic ice loss detected by ‘ icequake’ rumbles
Calving events at Thwaites Glacier, which is shedding vast amounts of ice, have been
detected from up to 1,600 kilometres away using seismic ‘ icequake’ data
. Vibrations measured at seven stations across West Antarctica were confirmed by satellite imagery.
Organoids show the brain’ s cognitive centre taking shape
Researchers have now used lab-grown brain tissue to
peer — in real time — into the development of the forebrain
. Organoids grown from human stem cells shed light on the part of the brain that controls higher mental functions, including cognition and language.
Get more of
Nature
’ s research highlights: short picks from the scientific literature.
Features & opinion
Scientists should speak up for child refugees
In response to a British government decision against welcoming child refugees — and on Holocaust Memorial Day — scientific biographer and obituarist Georgina Ferry reflects on
how much leading scientific nations have gained from people to whom they once gave sanctuary
. “ Take three pioneering researchers who all died in December 2019 ” — Hans Kornberg, Hannah Steinberg and Leslie Brent — “ and all had one other thing in common: they came to Britain in 1938–39 as unaccompanied child refugees from Europe ”, writes Ferry.
Nature | 4 min read
Survival of the friendliest
Theories of how life survived and thrived are
more complex and collaborative than a simple interpretation of Darwinian ‘ survival of the fittest
], writes anthropologist John Favini. The lesson for some of us, argues Favini, is to stop imposing a cultural preference for competition on our models of nature — and start finding ways to live more collaboratively.
Slate | 8 min read
The bold plan for Namibia’ s spectacular skies
Namibia’ s clear weather and large areas free of light pollution and radio interference might make it the next big thing for astronomy. Building on the success of the five High Energy Stereoscopic System telescopes in Windhoek, the Namibian astronomy community has its eyes on an even more ambitious plan:
disassemble a decommissioned telescope dish in Chile, move it onto a mountaintop in Namibia and link it to the Event Horizon Telescope
that stretches around the globe.
Experience | 7 min read
Quote of the day
“ The bottom line is all butterflies are moths, and there’ s no such thing as butterflies. ”
Entomologist Akito Kawahara says that butterflies are really just a small subset of specialized, day-flying moths — and the fact should open our eyes to their underappreciated moth cousins. (
National Geographic
) | science |
10-year Treasury yield falls to lowest since Oct. on coronavirus fears | The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest level in more than three months as investors grew increasingly concerned about the economic impact of the fast-spreading coronavirus.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 1.609%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.058%. The 10-year Treasury yield touched a low of 1.603% in the session, its lowest level since Oct. 10.
Chinese officials confirmed Sunday that there had been more than 2,700 confirmed cases of the deadly pneumonia-like virus, including 461 people in a critical condition as the death toll rose to 80.
The virus, which started in the Chinese city of Wuhan, comes from a large family of coronaviruses, according to the World Health Organization ( WHO). It has spread beyond Wuhan to other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Macao and Hong Kong.
The WHO has said that while the virus — which is spreading via human-to-human contact — is `` an emergency in China, '' it has not yet become a global health emergency.
Data out Monday also didn't help with the market sentiment. New home sales fell unexpectedly in December, down 0.4% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $ 45 billion in 13-week bills, $ 39 billion in 26-week bills, $ 40 billion in two-year notes and $ 41 billion in five-year notes.
New York Fed President John Williams is also expected to comment on the world's largest economy at an event in San Juan, Puerto Rico on Monday.
— CNBC's Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report. | business |
China’ s Coronavirus Has Revived Global Economic Fears | Before a mysterious respiratory illness emerged in the center of China, spreading with lethal effect through the world’ s most populous nation, concerns about the health of the global economy had been easing, replaced by a measure of optimism.
The United States and China had achieved a tenuous pause in a trade war that had damaged both sides. The specter of open hostilities between the United States and Iran had reverted to stalemate. Though Europe remained stagnant, Germany — the Continent’ s largest economy — had escaped the threat of recession.
Now, the world is worrying anew.
An outbreak originating in China and reaching beyond its borders has summoned fresh fears, sending markets into a wealth-destroying tailspin. It has provoked alarm that the world economy may be in for another shock, offsetting the benefits of the trade truce and the geopolitical easing, and providing new reason for businesses and households to hunker down.
On Monday, investors dumped stocks on exchanges from Asia to Europe to North America. They entrusted their money to traditional safe havens, pushing up the value of the yen, the dollar and gold. They pushed down the price of oil over fears that weaker economies would spell less demand for fuel.
In short, those in control of money took note of a growing crisis in a country of 1.4 billion people, whose consumers and businesses are a primary engine of economic growth around the world, and they chose to reduce their exposure to risk.
By late Monday, the virus had killed more than 100 people in China. More than 4,500 had been infected — mostly in mainland China, but also in Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, and as far away as Australia, Canada and the United States.
The emergence of the virus in China, whose government jails journalists and tightly controls information, left the world uncomfortably short of facts needed to assess the dangers.
“ It’ s the uncertainty of how the global economy is going to respond to the outbreak, ” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, a specialist bank in London. That will depend on the severity, the spread and the duration of the outbreak, he said, and “ we don’ t really know the answers to any of these questions. ”
What was left to the imagination resonated as a reason for investors to unload anything less than a sure thing.
Stocks in Japan and Europe fell more than 2 percent. In New York, the S & P 500 was down 1.6 percent, with stocks of companies whose sales are dependent on China especially susceptible. Wynn Resorts, which operates casinos in the gambling haven of Macau, a special administrative region of China, dropped more than 8 percent.
The virus and its attendant unknowns conjured memories of another deadly illness that began in China, the 2002-3 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed nearly 800 people. | business |
Disney Shuts Shanghai Park as Coronavirus Spreads. Here’ s What That Could Mean for Earnings. | Walt Disney Co. has temporarily closed its Shanghai Disneyland park because of the outbreak of coronavirus in China.
The company said in a statement posted on the Chinese resort’ s website that the decision is in line with prevention measures taking place across China. The company will help get refunds to guests who purchased tickets and booked resort hotel rooms.
“ We are in close contact with health officials and the local government about the situation and will announce a reopening date once they determine it is advisable, ” Disney said.
There have been 2,700 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 80 people have died, according to Chinese officials. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the fifth coronavirus case in the U.S.
The major U.S. stock indexes were down Monday morning, while the price of gold ticked up 0.8%.
J.P. Morgan analyst Alexia S. Quadrani called this a peak travel time for the resort, given the Lunar New Year and holiday season that extends into February.
The park had 11.8 million guests in 2018, with 50% visiting from outside the region, according to Quadrani, who estimates the park contributes $ 1 billion in revenue and about $ 50 million in operating profit annually to Disney.
Quadrani noted that the company has said weakness in Hong Kong would reduce operating income by about $ 80 million in the first quarter and $ 275 million in fiscal 2020.
“ Due to the high fixed cost structure of the Parks operations, the closure of Shanghai Disneyland could actually have a bigger hit to profits, at least while it remains closed, as it has shut down entirely whereas Hong Kong Disneyland’ s impact is during a period while the park is still open, ” she wrote.
Quadrani also speculated that movie-theater closings that started in China on Thursday could affect Disney’ s “ Mulan ” release in China, if they continue into March. Still, Quadrani maintains her Overweight rating and $ 160 price target on Disney stock, although she said she hopes to hear more when the company conducts an earnings call on Feb. 4.
“ While there is little question these events will lead to some downward pressure on earnings, the magnitude of the revision is not likely to be sizable relative to the overall company’ s earnings nor does it detract from investors’ main focus right now which is the likely outsized success of Disney’ s DTC initiatives, ” referring to the company’ s direct-to-consumer offerings like Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+.
Disney stock ( ticker: DIS) was down 2.8% to $ 136.20 near midday Monday, while the S & P 500 index was down 1.4%. | business |
Gold Markets: Coronavirus in focus | Gold climbed to a near three-week high on Monday as mounting concerns over the economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak sent investors scurrying for safe havens.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $ 1,577.31 per ounce. Prices rose to $ 1,586.43, the highest level since Jan. 8, earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $ 1,577.4 per ounce.
`` Safe-haven buying has been triggered by this virus in China and we're seeing a big sell-off in equity markets... It's mostly panic, the markets are looking at the prospect of the Chinese economy slowing down, '' said Edward Meir, analyst at ED & F Man Capital Markets. `` We could hit the recent highs above $ 1,600s if this thing deteriorates. ''
The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak has risen to 81 in China, with 2,800 confirmed cases, and the virus has spread to more than 10 countries, including the United States and France.
U.S. stocks opened more than 1% lower, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in more than three months.
`` The main trend ( in gold) remains bullish, with the short-term correction seen in the last few weeks seemingly over, increasing the chance of the price achieving a new 7-year-high in the next few weeks, '' ActivTrades Chief analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said in a note.
Gold scaled a near 7-year high of $ 1,610.90 per ounce earlier in the month after an Iranian general was killed in an U.S. airstrike, but the rally was short-lived.
Investors will be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of this year on Jan. 28-29, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.
In other metals, deficit-hit palladium dropped 5.8% to $ 2,287.46 per ounce. Platinum fell 1.8% to $ 983.76 per ounce.
`` Palladium had seen a big run until now, it can't go up forever. Somewhere some correction has to happen, '' ED & F Man Capital Markets ' Meir said.
Silver fell 0.2% to $ 18.05 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest level since Jan. 8 at $ 18.33. | business |
Coronavirus Update: How the Virus Is Affecting Global Business | A rapidly spreading viral outbreak is disrupting travel and business in China, which took unprecedented steps to lock down cities with a combined 40 million people around the epicenter in Wuhan to try to slow its progress.
For global corporations, Wuhan is an important hub. Of about 2,000 cities in China with factories and other facilities in Bloomberg's supply chain database, the city ranks 13th, with about 500 facilities. The province of Hubei has 1,016, making it seventh of 32 such jurisdictions. U.S.-based companies have 44 facilities there, and European ones about 40, the data show. Many plants are in the auto and transportation industries, and big names include PepsiCo Inc. and Siemens AG.
As the death toll from the pneumonia-like illness rises and cases are found in neighboring Asian countries, including South Korea and Singapore, as well as in the U.S., the economic impact of the novel coronavirous could be widespread.
Here is a rundown of what big companies are saying so far about the impact. Jan. 26:
Honda Motor Co. The automaker will evacuate from Wuhan about 30 Japanese staff, family members and employees visiting on business trips, Teruhiko Tatebe, a Tokyo-based spokesman, said by phone. The carmaker has informed the Japanese government that it wishes to utilize the charter jet planned to evacuate Japanese citizens. A handful of staff needed to maintain local operations will remain in the city.
Groupe PSA The French maker of Peugeot cars and other brands said it will evacuate its expatriate staff and their families from the Wuhan area. A total of 38 people will leave, the company said in a statement. Hennes and Mauritz AB The clothing retailer better known as H & M has closed a total of 13 stores in the region. Svenska Dagbladet reported. China is the company’ s 5th biggest market in terms of revenue, with 524 stores as of Aug. 31.
Ikea closed its warehouse in Wuhan on Thursday, according to the same report.
Remy Cointreau SA The French cognac maker abandoned its forecasts for this year after a slump in Hong Kong dented sales in the Christmas period and as the viral outbreak threatens business in China, the source of 20% of its profit, according to Jefferies estimates. “ Clearly we are concerned, ” Chief Financial Officer Luca Marotta said of the coronavirus on an earnings conference call. “ We do not have any scenarios on a quantified basis. It is evolving hour after hour.’’
McDonald’ s Corp. The fast-food giant, which had about 3,000 stores in China at the end of 2018, temporarily closed locations across five cities of the Hubei province due to the virus, including Wuhan. The Chicago-based company is taking extra preventative measures in the rest of the country, including taking the temperature of workers upon arrival and giving out hand sanitizers to diners.
Walt Disney Co. The world’ s largest theme park operator said it would close its Disneyland resort in Shanghai effective Jan. 25. The company is offering refunds to guests who bought theme park tickets or reserved rooms in its hotels. “ We will continue to carefully monitor the situation and be in close contact with the local government, and we will announce the reopening date upon confirmation, ” it said in a statement.
Starbucks Corp. The Seattle-based chain, with about 4,100 cafes in China, also said it’ s closing some locations, without providing more details.
Delta Air Lines Inc. The Atlanta-based carrier issued a travel waiver that allows passengers traveling to, from or through Beijing and Shanghai between Jan. 24 and Jan. 31 to change their itinerary once without having to pay a fee.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. The Chinese Lunar New Year is peak time for profits at casino operators. Authorities in Macau, the world’ s largest gambling market, are requiring casinos to screen guests for high temperatures and make their staff wear respirator masks. Many Chinese tourists are also heading to Las Vegas to celebrate. “ Although as of this date there are no reported cases of the coronavirus in Las Vegas that we are aware of, we will be in close contact with the Southern Nevada Health District who is monitoring the situation along with the CDC, ” the company said in a statement. “ We will implement any health directive they issue. ”
Avnet Inc. The Phoenix-based distributor of computer products and semiconductors said it hadn’ t seen an impact so far. “ But if it gets worse and they start shutting down airplanes, et cetera, then that will have a different effect on shipments out of China, ” CEO Bill Amelio said on a conference call. Asked whether the area is a meaningful region from an electronics manufacturing perspective, Amelio answered: “ Of course, it is.’’
American Airlines Group Inc. President Robert Isom said it is too soon to see an impact. “ Our network isn’ t that extensive in Asia. But we’ re on top of it, ” he said on a conference call. “ We’ ve seen viruses in the past that we’ ve had to make accommodations for and to be prepared for, we’ re doing all those same things right now. ”
Keppel Corp. The Singapore-based owner of the largest oil-rig builder, which has about 170 employees in Wuhan and operations across China, said it hadn’ t seen a direct impact either. “ We have advised our operations there and our staff there to take the necessary precautions. We are watching this very closely, ” CEO Loh Chin Hua said on an earnings call.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. The U.S. carrier was among the first global corporations to comment on the coronavirus on an earnings conference call. “ We’ ve been coordinating closely with the CDC to ensure that we’ re taking all the necessary steps to ensure that our customers and employees can travel safely, ” CEO Oscar Munoz said. “ By working closely together, we have in the past effectively managed situations like this. ”
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Coronavirus shuts restaurants in China, sending Luckin, Starbucks shares lower | Restaurant stocks fell Monday amid mounting concern about the Wuhan coronavirus and its impact on the global economy.
The virus has claimed 81 lives in China so far and infected nearly 2,900 people in the country. Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities are on lockdown to stop its spread. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 were trading lower on Monday as the number of coronavirus cases rose. A fifth case in the U.S. was confirmed over the weekend.
With the number of cases rising, there is some concern that restaurants will remain closed for a prolonged period. The Chinese government has already added three days to the Lunar New Year holidays, which will now end Feb. 2.
Starbucks ' Chinese rival Luckin Coffee, which has a market value of $ 9 billion, saw its shares tumble as much as 8%. The chain recently surpassed Starbucks with its number of locations in China.
The company has proactively closed Luckin coffee stores in Wuhan throughout the Lunar New Year holiday and has strict nationwide policies in place to monitor the situation, according to a company spokesperson.
`` While holiday travel has likely accelerated the virus's spread, the timing of the Chinese New Year has been a mitigating factor for Luckin Coffee as 70-80% of the company's footprint is typically closed during that period, '' Keybanc analyst Eric Gonzalez wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
Starbucks ' stock, which has a market value of $ 105 billion, dropped nearly 4%. The coffee chain said it has closed all shops and suspended delivery service in China's Hubei province, where the virus originated, for the Lunar New Year holiday. China is Starbucks ' second largest market, behind the United States. During its fiscal fourth quarter, Starbucks ' 4,125 Chinese cafes contributed $ 763 million in revenue.
Shares of McDonald's, which suspended business in five Chinese cities last week, were down more than 1% in morning trading. China represents a small fraction of the global fast-food giant's total business.
`` When you think about McDonald's, less than 2% of their operating profits are derived from China, '' Cowen analyst Andrew Charles said on CNBC's `` Squawk on the Street '' on Friday.
Shares of Yum China, which Reuters reported had temporarily closed some KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants in Wuhan, fell 5%. China accounts for 27% of KFC's systemwide sales and 17% of Pizza Hut's. Yum Brands, its U.S. franchiser, saw its own stock drop more than 1%.
Starbucks is scheduled to report earnings Tuesday after the bell. McDonald's, which has a market value of $ 160.8 billion, will announce its fourth-quarter results Wednesday morning. | business |
Universal Display stock slides on coronavirus fears | Universal Display Corp. shares
OLED,
+0.72%
are off more than 6% in Monday trading after an analyst flagged it as a company that could be `` adversely affected '' by the coronavirus crisis. `` We estimate ~1/3 of China's total OLED manufacturing capacity is located in Hubei province, including its capital city, Wuhan, '' Susquehanna's Mehdi Hosseini said in a note to clients. `` Emitter is the key material used in the manufacturing of OLED displays. Universal Display is the key supplier here, which could be adversely impacted by the inability to ship products to Wuhan. '' Hosseini also wrote that Western Digital Corp.
WDC,
-3.14%
could actually see positive short-term impacts from the disruption as China's Yangtze Memory Tech Co. is based in Wuhan and manufacturing issues there could lead to `` tighter '' NAND supply. However, Western Digital shares are being punished in Monday's session along with chip stocks more broadly. The stock is off 4.6% while the PHLX Semiconductor index
SOX,
-1.41%
is down 3.7%. The S & P 500
SPX,
-0.59%
is down 1.5%. | business |
Dow posts worst day since October and turns negative for the year as coronavirus fears grow | Stocks tanked on Monday after more cases of the coronavirus were confirmed over the weekend, ratcheting up worries over the virus ' impact on the world economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 453.93 points, or 1.6% to 28,535.80, wiping out the average's gains for the year. The 30-stock average also notched its biggest one-day fall since October along with its longest losing streak since August. The S & P 500 dropped 1.6% to 3,243.63, snapping a 74-session streak without a 1% decline. The Nasdaq Composite had its worst day since August, dropping 1.9% to 9,139.31.
There are 2,862 confirmed cases so far in China and the death toll in China has risen to 81. The World Health Organization's director general is traveling to China to meet with government and health officials. In the U.S., a fifth case of coronavirus was confirmed over the weekend.
`` China is the biggest driver of global growth so this couldn't have started in a worse place, '' said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell. `` Markets hate uncertainty, and the coronavirus is the ultimate uncertainty in that no one knows how badly it will impact the global economy. ''
Airline stocks United and Delta both dropped more than 3.3%. American slid 5.5%. Gaming stocks such as Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts declined by 6.8% and 8.1%, respectively. MGM Resorts slid 3.9%.
Travel stocks Expedia, Carnival and Marriott International all pulled back at least 2.1%. Consumer shares with exposure to China such as Apple, Disney, Nike and Estee Lauder all dropped at least 1.8%.
Caterpillar, a bellwether for global growth, fell 3.3% while the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH) dropped 4%. Nvidia and Micron Technology fell more than 4% each while AMD dropped 2.2%.
Overseas, global stocks took a hit, as the Japanese Nikkei 225 dropped 2% while the German Dax lost 2.6%. France's CAC 40 also pulled back more than 2%. The Stoxx 600 index — which tracks a broad swath of European equities — tanked by 2.3%. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ( EEM) dropped 3.5%. Chinese markets were closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
`` The market had run up a lot on the belief that economic data would improve post the trade war, '' said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. `` This, to me, could potentially push out the time for that data to improve. ''
Traditional safe havens such as Treasurys and gold got a lift as worries over the sickness permeated. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 1.61% and hit its lowest level since October while gold futures climbed about 0.6%.
The Cboe Volatility Index ( VIX), widely considered to be the best fear gauge on Wall Street — jumped to around 18.2 from about 14.5.
Coronavirus fears have been rattling investors since last week. Stocks closed lower on Friday, marking their first weekly decline of the young year.
`` Investors tapped the brakes last week as overbought conditions and concerns over the coronavirus created a few speed bumps on the path to record-highs, '' said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler. `` We continue to believe there is an elevated risk for a deeper pullback to develop. ''
Elsewhere, American Express shares fell 3.1% after an analyst at Stephens downgraded them to equal weight from overweight. The analyst also trimmed his price target on the stock, citing a stretched valuation.
—CNBC's Silvia Amaro contributed to this report. | business |
Opinion: Your 6-point plan to navigating a choppy stock market | When even
Ralph Nader
becomes a stock-market commentator, it’ s time to turn cautious.
Yes, he’ s bearish, but Nader’ s recent jump into the fray is a sign the general public has become too enthralled by stocks. This isn’ t surprising, given that the S & P 500
SPX,
+0.08%
had been hitting new highs since mid-October.
But it’ s also troubling, because whenever the stock market hits the crowd’ s radar, it can signal that a turn is at hand. Particularly alarming: Most of the crowd is now very bullish. This is a warning sign in the contrarian sense. The problem with excessive bullishness is that when “ bad news ” comes along — even something as insignificant to the global economy as coronavirus — overconfident investors are caught off guard and surprised. So they sell, which compounds the weakness.
I track a dozen sentiment indicators in my stock newsletter
Brush Up on Stocks
, and currently virtually all of them are bearish — meaning they show too much bullishness. Here are three examples, which you should learn to track on a regular basis.
• The Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio, a weekly survey of professional financial advisers, was recently at 3.32. Anything above 3 is a yellow flag, by how I read this gauge. Moves above 4 are a red flag.
• The Cboe Options Exchange Volatility Index
VIX,
-5.51%
has been trading below 14 for most of the past two weeks. When this “ fear gauge ” trades below 14, it shows too much bullishness and complacency. It shot up above 14 on Friday as worries about coronavirus mounted, but the signal from the past two weeks is still valid.
The problem with excessive bullishness is that when “ bad news ” comes along — even something as insignificant to the U.S. economy as coronavirus — overconfident investors are caught off guard and surprised. So they sell, which compounds the weakness.
• The Cboe Options Exchange ( Cboe) put/call ratio over the past 10 days is low at 0.75. Any read below 0.85 is excessively bullish, a negative for contrarians like me. Owning puts is a negative bet since they go up in value when the market declines. Owning calls is a bullish bet. So when put buying dries up relative to call buying to this extent, it tells us investors are bullish.
Read:
Coronavirus and Mideast tensions aren’ t the stock market’ s biggest problems this week, strategist warns
Insiders are cautious
The people with the front-row seats on the economy confirm my cautionary view.
In tracking buying by corporate insiders for my stock letter, I’ ve noticed they recently started favoring defensive names over the cyclical and high-beta names that would do better if stock markets moved higher.
Among smart insiders with good records, there’ s now a preference for defensive companies like those that sell food and pay dividends. I’ ll cite the recent insider buying at Conagra Brands
CAG,
+2.15%
and Keurig Dr Pepper
KDP,
+2.16%
as well as at other dividend payers like Johnson & Johnson
JNJ,
-0.55%
or real-estate investment trusts like Agree Realty
ADC,
-0.50%
and Monmouth Real Estate Investment
MNR,
-0.05%
.
All all of these names did much better than the market in Friday’ s selloff.
Insiders overall are also cautious, too. Sell-buy ratios tracked by Vickers Insider Weekly have risen to bearish heights. “ As equities continue to hit all-time highs, contrarian corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are responding by buying fewer shares and selling more shares, ” according the letter.
Your six-point plan
The combination of very bullish sentiment among investors plus insider bearishness often precedes market turning points. So it’ s time to think about doing some or all of the following.
1. Raise cash.
You’ ll want to have buying power to purchase your favorite stocks at lower levels if a reversal plays out. Do a little selling to raise cash, especially by trimming or getting out of troubling positions you’ ve had your doubts about.
2. Avoid margin.
Like alcohol, debt can make the good times better and the bad times worse. If we get a market drawdown, you won’ t want to be in stocks you’ ve purchased with a loan from your friendly brokerage. In a worst-case scenario, you’ ll get a margin call that could force you to sell stocks near the bottom. Remember that brokerages dangle more margin in front of you when the market is strong, and then pull it back during drawdowns. So even if you think you might have some cushion now, you might not.
3. Resist joining the crowd.
When nearly everyone is bullish, the enthusiasm is contagious. A risk now is that talking heads on CNBC sway you with their overconfidence. Or you’ ll get influenced by friends and officemates boasting about gains. It’ s important to shut this off and avoid becoming a part of the bullish crowd.
4. Don’ t sell out of long-term positions.
It does not look like a recession is at hand. Indeed, economists have recently been turning more bullish and upping their estimates for 2020 global growth,
as I predicted
might be the case during the inverted yield curve panic last summer.
“ Should we experience a correction, it would likely be limited in duration and not the end of the bull market, ” says Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at Baird.
It’ s tough to trade around market declines because you have to get two decisions right — the sale and the buy. And over long stretches of time the market has consistently gone higher, reflecting the cumulative growth in the economy and population. So if you are a long-term investor, don’ t get cute. Just stay in.
5. Hedge your portfolio by shorting the market.
Exchange-traded funds like ProShares Short S & P 500
SH,
-0.07%
and ProShares Short Russell 2000
RWM,
-0.18%
give you short exposure to the market. These ETFs will go up if the market goes down.
6. Trim or short beta.
High-beta stocks are the ones that move up or down more than other stocks. So for more impact, consider shorting these, or at least trimming exposure to them. Technology is a good example of a high-beta group. It might make sense to trim positions in stocks like Apple
AAPL,
+0.51%
,
Google
GOOG,
+0.47%
GOOGL,
+0.64%
or Amazon.com
AMZN,
+0.57%
if you own them. Also consider shorting technology via exchange-traded funds like ProShares Short QQQ
PSQ,
-0.44%
,
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x Shares
TECS,
-2.51%
,
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
SQQQ,
-1.64%
,
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares
SOXS,
-6.95%
and ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors
SSG,
-4.27%
.
Be careful with the double- or triple-leverage ETFs, since they can get you into trouble faster.
Read:
Why the coronavirus outbreak could trigger a stock-market pullback
A market-saving grace
Over 85% of S & P 500 stocks recently traded above their 200-day moving average, the highest level in more than four years, points out Baird’ s Bittles. This is a positive, because broad market participation can be a technical signal portending more gains. If the recent progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations holds, that might boost business confidence and unleash a wave of capital spending, which has been sorely lacking since Donald Trump launched his tariff battle.
This could fuel the next leg up in the stock market.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested CAG, KDP, JNJ, ADC, MNR, GOOGL and AMZN in his stock newsletter
Brush Up on Stocks
. | business |
Coronavirus prompts automakers to evacuate workers from China, weigh factory delays | Automakers are withdrawing employees from China and weighing whether to suspend manufacturing in the country as the virus that emerged in the city of Wuhan less than a month ago ravages the mainland.
Most major automakers have restricted or banned travel to the country due to the fast-spreading disease, which as of Monday had taken the lives of at least 82 people in China and sickened 2,900 worldwide.
Manufacturing in China was temporarily halted in honor of the Lunar New Year, which kicked off this weekend, but normal operations were due to resume this week. Automakers across the globe with operations in China could keep those plants closed even longer, people familiar with the matter said.
Automakers with notable operations in Wuhan include GM, Honda and Nissan, which currently has a facility under construction with Wuhan-based Dongfeng.
Honda Motor and PSA Group are withdrawing employees working around Wuhan, a city of 11 million people.
A Honda spokesman on Monday confirmed 30 `` associates and their families '' who work at the plant near Wuhan were being sent home to Japan.
PSA Group said in an email to CNBC that the decision to repatriate its employees working in Wuhan will be done `` according the proposition of the French authorities in complete cooperation with Chinese authorities. '' They are expected to start flying French citizens home from Wuhan by the middle of this week, company spokesman Pierre-Olivier Salmon said.
Nissan also has plans to withdraw a majority of its employees and their family members from the Wuhan area back to Japan, a person familiar with the company's plans told CNBC on Monday.
`` We take the health and safety of our employees and their families seriously, '' a Nissan spokesman said in an emailed statement, declining to comment directly on the withdrawal plans. `` We are carefully evaluating the epidemic situation in Wuhan and the country and keep our employees informed and provided with all necessary support and precautionary tools. ''
Toyota Motor on Monday implemented a travel restriction to China `` until further notice, '' according to company spokesman Eric Booth. He said the automaker `` will continue to monitor the situation. '' Toyota, which does not operate any plants in China, has not had to extract any employees from China as other automakers have done, he said.
Details from other carmakers about the number of U.S., European and other international auto employees expected to be evacuated from China were not immediately available.
In Shanghai, local officials are prohibiting companies in the city from resuming operations before Feb. 9, Reuters reported. Electric-car maker Tesla, which just opened its first factory in China, near Shanghai, didn't respond to multiple requests for comment.
Business in China is essentially shut down through Thursday for the long Chinese New Year holiday, known as the Spring Festival. Chinese authorities extended the shutdown to Feb. 2 to keep the public at home and avoid spreading infection.
General Motors, which is by far the largest U.S. automaker in China, is `` taking it one day at a time '' regarding the outbreak, according to a spokesman. It hasn't yet decided whether it will extend the work stoppage in China beyond Feb. 2, particularly at an assembly plant in Wuhan that employs about 6,000 workers, he said. The automaker operates 15 assembly plants with Chinese partners in the country.
`` Out of an abundance of caution, GM has placed a temporary restriction on travel to China, '' the company said. `` Employees are also reminded to take necessary protection measures suggested by medical authorities. GM will continue to closely monitor this situation. ''
Others, such as Ford Motor, Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen of America, are said to be doing the same regarding business operations and travel to the country.
A spokesman for Ford on Monday said production and other operations in China are currently scheduled to resume on Feb. 3, the day after the holiday ends. However, those plans could change based on Chinese officials ' recommendations.
Ford last week suspended all business travel to Wuhan. It operates manufacturing facilities in Chongqing and Hangzhou. Both are hundreds of miles away from Wuhan.
Over the weekend, Fiat Chrysler asked all employees `` to delay or reschedule any business travel to China through the end of February. '' Exemptions, a company spokesman said, may be made for `` business critical issues after consultation with HR/security in China. ''
Fiat Chrysler operates two assembly plants in China: one northwest of Hong Kong in Guangzhou and another in Changsha, located roughly 200 miles southwest of Wuhan. It also operates a handful of supplier facilities in the country.
A spokesman for Volkswagen of America on Friday said the company is `` actively monitoring the situation in China and will evaluate any travel to the region on a case by case basis. ''
Michael Dunne, CEO of China consulting and market-intelligence company ZoZo Go, said it's `` impossible to measure the impact right now '' on the auto industry from the coronavirus due to the holiday.
`` It's akin to the week between Christmas and New Year, '' he said on Monday. `` The Chinese always shut down for this period. ''
Dunne said there was a sense of `` determined calm '' with people in China that has recently evolved into `` a feeling of genuine anxiety and all the emotions that go along with not knowing just how big and how bad this thing is.... It's unsettling for sure for people inside China. '' | business |
J & J 'pretty confident ' it can create China coronavirus vaccine | Johnson & Johnson's chief scientific officer, Dr. Paul Stoffels, told CNBC on Monday that he believes the drugmaker can create a vaccine in the coming months to fight against the fast-spreading coronavirus.
But he said it could take up to a year to bring it to market.
`` We have dozens of scientists working on this so we're pretty confident we can get something made that will work and stay active for the longer term, '' said Stoffels, also vice chairman of the executive committee, in a `` Squawk Box '' interview.
`` We 'll see in the next few weeks how this goes, '' he added. Stoffels confirmed the company started working on a coronavirus vaccine two weeks ago.
Chinese officials said there are now more than 2,800 confirmed cases of the flu-like coronavirus, with the death toll rising to 81. It was first identified in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province last month.
More countries are also reporting coronavirus cases, including the U.S., which on Sunday confirmed a fifth case.
The new strain comes from a large family of viruses known as coronaviruses, according to the World Health Organization. They are known to cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Stoffels said the pharmaceutical company needed to start from scratch on this vaccine, much like how it operated in the Zika outbreak. Though Johnson & Johnson could shave two to three months off of that due to technological advances, he said.
`` We are going to take an approach with at least five different constructs and different partners and collaborations all over the world in order to see which part of the virus we can use to make an effective vaccine and develop a model that we can invest in, '' he added.
Drugmaker Moderna also told CNBC last week that it is working with U.S. government health agencies to develop a vaccine for the current strain of coronavirus.
Fred Hassan, former CEO of Schering-Plough, said later on `` Squawk on the Street '' that Stoffels ' estimate on when Big Pharma might have a vaccine ready for market is accurate. `` I believe we 'll get the thing done in less than a year. ''
Hassan also pointed to new technology and scientific advances as factors helping streamline vaccine efforts.
Several companies, including Walt Disney with its Shanghai Disney, are suspending operations until further notice during the normally festive weeklong Lunar New Year holiday to prevent the outbreak from spreading. Starbucks and McDonald's also closed stores in Hubei province.
Authorities also temporarily banned the trade of wild animals in China on Sunday, responding to the outbreak as some consider the virus to have originated in a type of wild animal sold and consumed as food in Wuhan.
Investors worldwide have been rattled by the rapid spread of the virus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 400 points, or nearly 1.5%, in early trading Monday.
Ex-Medtronic CEO Bill George told `` Squawk on the Street '' that he expects the outbreak to be `` rough '' for the next few months as China fights to contain the virus.
Stoffels also said the speed at which the virus is spreading is `` scary '' but doesn't constitute panic.
`` But at the same time, I 'm very worried that this could become a global pandemic, '' he said. `` That's why we started working on this vaccine two weeks ago, we have to be prepared that this is going to become a global crisis. ''
— CNBC's Saheli Roy Choudhury and The Associated Press contributed to this report. | business |
Stock market live updates: Dow down 400, biggest coronavirus losers, oil bear market | This is a live blog. Check back for updates.
The Dow Jones Industrial average posted its worst drop since October, down 1.6% or 453 points. The average is now negative for the year by 0.01%. Intel, Caterpillar, American Express, Disney all dropped more than 3% to lead the Dow lower on fears the coronavirus would hit global growth. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9% for its worst slide since August. The S & P 500 lost 1.57%, its biggest decline since October.
JPMorgan's tech analysts said Apple, Qualcomm and glass maker Corning are `` the most notable losers '' from the deadly coronavirus. Apple's sales will likely to suffer during an important holiday period in China, and the tech giant has `` significant reliance '' on Chinese manufacturing, JPMorgan said. Meanwhile, chipmaker Qualcomm has a high exposure to Chinese smartphone market, which will see dampened demand due to the virus, the bank said. There will also be a potential impact on end-market demand for Corning, primarily in relation to lower retail TV demand, the bank predicted. To be sure, JPMorgan said any negative impact from the coronavirus would likely be just temporary. Shares of those three companies are all down more than 2% Monday. —Li
Utilities have taken the top spot from technology among year-to-date performance for the 11 sectors of the S & P 500. Six out of 11 sectors are still positive for 2020, led by utilities up 5.6% and on pace for its best month since June 2016. The information technology sector is up 3.8% for the year, following coronavirus related losses in Apple. —Francolla
Oil posted its fifth straight day of losses on Monday as a potential slowdown in demand due to the coronavirus outbreak continued to weigh on prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to settle at $ 53.14 per barrel, its lowest settle since Oct. 15. WTI is now slightly more than 20% below its recent high of $ 66.60 per barrel in April, meaning that it's now in bear market territory. International benchmark Brent crude also posted its fifth straight day of losses, settling below the $ 60 mark. — Stevens
Apple reports quarterly earnings after the bell on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs said it is looking for commentary on Apple TV+ and iPhone demand in China. 3M, a good gauge of the manufacturing economy, also reports earnings, along with semiconductor company AMD, which has rallied an impressive 50% in the past three months. Coffee chain Starbucks reports earnings and investors will be looking for updates on how the deadly coronavirus is impacting business. Starbucks said it is temporarily closing some of its stores in China due to the virus. We 'll also get a read on how consumers are feeling about the health of the U.S. economy when January's consumer confidence index is released. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a read of 128.0, up from December's read of 126.5. –Fitzgerald
With roughly one hour left in the trading session, Wall Street was headed for its worst one-day performance since October, with the S & P 500 on pace to snap a 74-day streak without a 1% decline. The Dow is down around 400 points and appears to be trending back towards the lows of the day as the final hour nears. Coronavirus fears gripped Wall Street, knocking stocks off the record levels set earlier this month. —Imbert
Exchange-trade funds that track emerging markets are falling broadly as worries over the coronavirus dented sentiment over global economic growth. The iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF ( EEM) dropped 3% and was on pace for its worst daily loss since Aug. 5, when it fell 3.7%. The EWZ, which tracks Brazilian shares, slid 3.2%, its worst day since Aug. 23. ETFs that track South Korean, Chilean, Russian and Chinese stocks were also down around 3%. —Imbert
Homebuilder stocks are one of the rare bright spots today, with D.R. Horton rising 2.5% after reporting better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter and raising its full-year guidance for revenue and homes closed. PulteGroup, which reports earnings tomorrow, and Lennar are both up more than 1%. The gains come despite weaker-than-expected data for new home sales released this morning. —Pound
Stocks are off their lows with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now down about 330 points as investors flock to defensive stocks amid the coronavirus fears. Pfizer and Walmart both rose more than 1%, lifting the 30-stock benchmark. Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble were also among the best Dow performers. These defensive names are typically less tied to global growth and turbulence. The Dow was down nearly 550 points at its session low. — Li
Vir Biotechnology — which has a market cap of more than $ 2.6 billion — surged more than 20% as investors bet the little-known biotechnology stock will benefit from the race to find treatment and prevention for the deadly coronavirus. Last week, the company said it may have the `` potential to treat and prevent Wuhan coronavirus. '' The stock has also surged nearly 100% in 2020, easily outpacing other high-flying stocks such as Beyond Meat. —Imbert, Francolla
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the fifth trading day in a row Monday, on pace for its longest losing streak in nearly five months. The last time the 30-stock index was down for five straight days was in early August when the U.S.-China trade war escalated. Since Jan. 21, the Dow has plunged about 700 points as fears around the deadly coronavirus deepened.— Li
Stocks are reeling midday trading, with the Dow trading 400 points lower as worries mount over the economic implications of the coronavirus spreading. The 30-stock average is also barely higher for the year. Around noon, the Dow was up just 0.2% year to date, meaning it could close lower for 2020 if the sell-off escalates. —Imbert
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield could take another leg lower, due to hedging. The yield influences the rate for home mortgages. If it falls enough, it can create a stampede among homeowners to refinance. When refinancings rise, mortgages are paid off, and securities backing them are often owned by big institutions, like insurers, who need longer duration investments in their portfolios. `` And in order to keep the duration levels, they go out and buy long term Treasurys. The greater yields fall, they fall even further because of this dynamic, '' says Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Gorup. The 10-year was at 1.61% Monday. A key resistance level is at 1.50%. As the 10-year rate drops, the yield curve is flattening with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield at about 16 basis points, less than half of what it was at yearend. `` The pain trade is a 'bull flattener ' which is what we have now. If there is some hedging, that could accelerate the move, '' said one strategist.
The coronavirus could have a negative impact on global economic growth if it can't be contained in the next few months, former IMF China Division Head Eswar Prasad told CNBC's `` Squawk on the Street. '' If the flu-like virus continues to spread across China into the second quarter and beyond, Prasad said he could see it take 0.25% or 0.5% off world growth, since it 'll hurt the nation's imports and exports. - Bursztynsky
New home sales took an unexpected dip in December, falling 0.4% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Monday. It was the third-straight monthly drop, and sales for the last three months of 2019 were revised lower. The sales fell well short of the consensus 730,000 expected by economists. —Lewis
Stocks with exposure to China, travel continue to fall. The spreading coronavirus has led to a sell-off in stocks with heavy exposure to China and in the travel industry. Wynn Resorts is taking one of the largest hits, down nearly 7.5%, while fellow gambling and hotel stocks Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts are down about 7% and 4%, respectively. These companies also have big operations on China's gambling hub, Macau. Shares of airlines and cruise companies are also lower. American Airlines is down more than 5.5%, while United is down 4.8% and Delta is down 4.2%. Royal Caribbean is down 6.9%, with Carnival Cruise Lines and Norwegian Cruise Lines also suffering significant drops. Consumer companies with big business in China are also taking a hit. Nike is down 1.9%, while Estee Lauder is down roughly 5.2%. Apple, which is counting on China to provide iPhone sales growth this year, fell 3%. ( See posts below for more info and movers.)
Shares of a small biotech company Inovio Pharmaceuticals skyrocketed 24%, bringing its one-week gain to a whopping 60% after it said it's in the process of developing a vaccine against the new coronavirus. Trading volumes ballooned to nearly 20 million shares Monday morning, compared to its 30-day average of just 2.6 million shares. The Pennsylvania-based company said last week it was granted $ 9 million by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations for vaccine development. A word of caution that any vaccine could be a year or years away from commercial production. — Li
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ( EEM) is down 3.9%, on pace for its worst daily performance since Brexit on June 24, 2016 when it fell 6.1%. The ETF has fallen for three days in a row and Monday marks its fourth negative session in five. The EEM is down 5.7% over the past three sessions, and down 7.2% over the past five sessions. If global growth, and China's economy in particular, is threatened by the coronavirus, emerging markets companies could be among the hardest hit. — Hayes
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday that Apple stock, under pressure Monday with the rest of the market, could determine the future direction on Wall Street. `` I always said own it, don't trade it, '' Cramer said on `` Squawk on the Street. '' He added, `` Why not wait now if you don't own it? '' Apple is set to report earnings after-the-bell on Tuesday. Shares of Apple, even with Monday's slide, were still up about 5.5% so far this year after soaring nearly 90% in 2019. The `` Mad Money '' host also said on CNBC on Monday that investors waiting for the overall market to sink so they could buy stocks at cheaper prices should stay on the sidelines a little longer. — Belvedere
The Treasury market is reacting to the outbreak of the current coronavirus more dramatically than it did to SARS. The 10-year yield has moved more than 20 basis points in the past week, and was at 1.60% Monday, off from 1.83% the Friday before the outbreak began to spook markets. `` We and everyone else are comparing this to SARS … so this is a much sharper move, '' said Michael Schumacher, director rates at Wells Fargo. He said the first case of SARS confirmed in Hong Kong was Feb. 19, 2003 and between then and March 10, 2003, the 10-year moved to 3.56% from 3.95%. `` It seems a little more aggressive this time. '' The move in 2003 was about 39 basis points on a much higher yield over three weeks, relative to the current 23 basis points move in the past week. Most of the move in 2003 was before the official World Health Organization issued a global alert on March 12, Schumacher said. `` The big move was done by March 19. The 10-year was back to 3.98%. On March 21, it closed above 4%, '' he said. —Domm
While the broader market sold off on coronavirus fears, shares of Clorox ticked up more than 2% on Monday. The consumer goods manufacturer makes Clorox disinfecting wipes, which help fight diseases by killing bacteria. Clorox is a classic defensive stock, less tied to the economic cycle. Clorox also pays a healthy 2.6% dividend yield. –Fitzgerald
Market pros have been getting increasingly nervous about Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders rise in the polls, as the Iowa caucuses approach. A chart by Cornerstone Macro analyzing the tax plans of the Democratic candidates is adding to that angst. The chart was published in The Wall Street Journal. The tax plans of all top Democratic candidates show a sharp jump to an overall marginal rate above 50%, from the current 40.2%. That includes higher contributions to Social Security by higher income tax payers and a higher individual tax rate. Sanders ' proposals is by far the biggest jump, boosting the overall top marginal rate to 69.2%. His top individual tax rate would jump to 52% ( from 37%). `` With this virus, people have tuned out the U.S. elections, which is a relief. But they 'll be back quickly, '' said one strategist. `` If Bernie's the potential front runner, markets get a little spooked by that. '' Over the weekend, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach tweeted: `` Bernie getting close to Joe on Predicit. Here comes Iowa! '' —Domm
Top health insurers traded lower as new polls released over the weekend showed Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., surpassing former Vice President Joe Biden in key early states as both vie for Democrats ' support in the 2020 primary. Stocks including Anthem, UnitedHealth, Cigna and Humana all traded down at least 2%. Sanders, a lifelong democratic socialist and avowed opponent of private-sector health care, has been his support among Iowa voters rise in recent days ahead of the state's critical caucus next week. His support swelled by six points since October and he's now garnering 25% of the Iowa vote, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. —Franck
Shares of American Express fell 4.4% in after Stephens downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying the company's `` excellent performance is now the market expectation. '' While Stephens expects American Express to continue to perform well, the firm said it doesn't see any `` material catalysts for 2020 '' to drive the stock higher. Piper Sandler also called out American Express ' strong execution in a note but highlighted a different risk: The impact of coronavirus on American Express from a potential decrease in travel and tourism spending. Piper Sandler said so far, the coronavirus risk for American Express is small. —Sheetz
Copper dropped more than 2% to its lowest level since October as investors fretted over the economic impact of the coronavirus. The metal traded around $ 2.62 per pound. Earlier in the session, it hit a low of $ 2.612 per pound, its lowest since Oct. 18. Copper is widely considered a bellwether for the global economy since it is used in everything from building houses to consumer goods. Declining copper prices may signal an economic slowdown is ahead. —Imbert, Francolla
The Dow was negative for the year at its session lows shortly after the open. Breakeven for year is 28,538.44. The Dow hadn't been lower for the year on an intraday basis since January 8. The S & P 500 is still modestly higher for 2020 ( breakeven 3.230.78), while the Nasdaq is still solidly higher for the year ( breakeven 8,972.61). — Hum
The Dow Jones Industrial Average open was even worse than futures were signaling. The Dow dropped more than 500 points in the first minute as traders sold first and asked questions later on fears of the coronavirus hitting global business activity. Nike, which has big revenue exposure to the China consumer, was the worst performer in the Dow, losing 3%. It was the worst percentage Dow drop since October with the average off more than 1.5%. The S & P 500 lost 1.5%. Apple shares were off by 3% as well. —Melloy
Johnson & Johnson's chief scientific officer told CNBC on Monday that he believes the drugmaker can create a vaccine in the coming months to fight against the fast-spreading coronavirus. However, Dr. Paul Stoffels said it could take up to a year to bring it to market. `` We have dozens of scientists working on this, '' he told `` Squawk Box, '' confirming J & J started working on a coronavirus vaccine two weeks ago. Johnson & Johnson shares were off by just 0.6%, outperforming the broader market as some investors hid out in the stocks in the steady industry. —Bursztynsky
The Cboe Market Volatility Index surged above 18 on Monday morning as the broader stock market pointed toward a lower open. The index, often called Wall Street's 'fear gauge ', is about 4 points above where it closed on Friday and is at its highest level since October. Volatility has been abnormally low during the latest stretch for this bull market. The index means more investors are buying put options to protect from a market slide. — Pound
Visits to the Chinese territory Macau, known for its Las Vegas-like casino and gaming businesses, are declining as the Chinese coronavirus continues to spread throughout Asia. Through the third day of the Chinese New Year holiday, Macau visits were down 60% year-over-year, according to Deutsche Bank. Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts International all have revenues coming from Macau. Wynn dropped 8%, Las Vegas Sands fell 7% and MGM ticked 5% lower in premarket trading on Monday. –Fitzgerald
The heightened concerns about the deadly coronavirus continued to drive investors to safe assets like government bonds. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely with prices, touched a low of 1.603% Monday, its lowest level since Oct. 10. The yield on 2-year Treasury note also hit a low of 1.429%, its lowest level in more than three months. —Li
Oil moved lower again on Monday — pacing for the fifth straight session of losses — as fears over a potential slowdown in crude demand, sparked by the coronavirus outbreak, continued to pressure prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped more than 3% to $ 52.13, its lowest level since Oct. 10. International benchmark Brent crude also hit a more than 3-month low, after posting its worst week since Dec. 2018. `` The corona virus has quickly morphed from being a curiosity to a potentially more ominous threat to the global economic and oil demand outlook for 2020, '' Simmons Energy analyst Bill Herbert said in a note to clients Sunday. — Stevens
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of cosmetic company Estee Lauder to perform from outperform and lowered their price target to $ 210 per share from $ 230 per share, as the death toll and infection rate of the Chinese virus continued to rise. In recent years, the Chinese consumer has represented a key driver in Estee Lauder's business, offsetting weakness in the United States, said Oppenheimer. Credit Suisse estimates the makeup company has about 17% revenue exposure in China. `` Although difficult to measure the precise impact and the length at which the coronavirus-related challenges could persist within the Chinese economy, we now expect EL's higher margin travel-retail segment to be adversely impacted at least in Q3 ( Mar.) and potentially longer, '' Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh said in a note. After falling more than 10% last week, Estée Lauder ticked lower again on Monday. –Fitzgerald
Shares of Boeing are down 1.6% in volatile trading as investors grapple with conflicting information about a passenger plane crash in Afghanistan on Monday. It was initially reported to be a plane from the state-owned Ariana Afghan Airlines. However, the airline's acting CEO Mirwais Mirzakwal has since denied that one of its planes had crashed. It's still unclear if it was a Boeing plane that went down. —Li
Bank of America downgraded shares of hotel and casino chain Wynn Resorts to neutral from buy and lowered its price target to $ 150 per share from $ 160 per share as the Chinese coronavirus continues to spread, threatening travel and tourism-related stocks ( see below). The deadly virus, which has killed more than 80 people and infected over 2,800 people, is getting stronger, forcing China to restricted travel for at least 35 million people across 15 cities. `` Understandably, the Macau focused gaming names have traded off more than the broader market as they are 1) highly exposed to domestic Chinese travel, 2) the timing is concurrent with Chinese New Year, '' Bank of America equity analyst Shaun Kelley said in a note to clients Monday. After falling more than 11% last week, Wynn shares dropped once again on Monday. –Fitzgerald
Travel and gaming stocks are leading the broader market lower as fears over the coronavirus escalate. Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts, which have big China gaming operations, all dropped at least 4.5% in the premarket. Airline shares such as American, Delta and United each slid at least 3% on fears of a slowdown in global travel because of virus fears. Expedia was off by 4% and Marriott International by 3%. Estee Lauder and Nike, two consumer stocks with high China sales exposure, fell 4.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Disney and Apple both dipped more than 2%. —Imbert
U.S. stock futures are following global markets lower on Monday amid rising fears of the spreading coronavirus and its potential impact on the global economy. Around 7:50 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated a drop of more than 400 points at the open. S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures pointed to a loss of more than 1% each. Fears spread after the death toll in China from the virus rose to 81 over the weekend, with more than 2,800 cases confirmed. —Imbert
—With reporting from Pippa Stevens, Jessica Bursztynsky, John Melloy, Robert Hum, Gina Francolla, Michael Sheetz, Tom Franck, Patti Domm, Matthew Belvedere, Christopher Hayes, Al Lewis, Jesse Pound | business |
Oil hits more than 3-month low on fears coronavirus will slow growth | Oil dropped to its lowest level since October on Monday, as fears over a potential slowdown in crude demand, sparked by the coronavirus outbreak, continued to pressure prices.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9%, or $ 1.05, to settle at $ 53.14 per barrel, for the fifth straight session of losses, and the lowest closing price since Oct. 15. At its low, WTI dipped more than 3% to hit $ 52.13, a price not seen since Oct. 10. The contract is coming off its third straight week of losses and worst week since July, and is now trading in bear market territory after falling more than 20% from its recent April high of $ 66.60.
International benchmark Brent crude fell 2.5%, or $ 1.53, to $ 59.16. It's also coming off its third straight week of losses, and its worst week since Dec. 2018.
The flu-like coronavirus, first identified on Dec. 31 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has now killed 82 people, according to Chinese officials, with at least 2,900 confirmed cases worldwide. The virus has spread to 10 additional countries, including South Korea, Japan and the United States, where the fifth case was confirmed on Sunday.
A slowdown in China's economy would hit oil demand since the nation is the world's largest crude oil importer —importing a record 10.12 million barrels per day in 2019 — and the world's second-largest oil consumer, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
`` Supply risk has been tested in acute fashion over recent months, but the coronavirus presents the first major severe test to demand in years, '' RBC analyst Michael Tran said in a note to clients Monday. `` Concerns surrounding the virus and the negative impact on demand have taken the oil market hostage and have sent oil prices on a five-day losing streak. ''
On Sunday Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that OPEC+ would step in to bolster prices if needed, while noting that the sell-off was `` primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative market expectations adopted by some market participants despite ( the virus ') very limited impact on global oil demand, '' according to a report from Reuters.
But his comments did little to assuage fears as prices continued to move lower Monday.
`` The recent price plunge, due to demand concerns emanating from the coronavirus outbreak, has Saudi Arabia and Russia in full scramble mode, '' Again Capital's John Kilduff said to CNBC. `` With winter in the Northern Hemisphere winding down, producers were already staring down a slack demand period, ahead of the summer driving season. It has to be concerning to them that their attempts at jaw-boning the market, over the weekend, have fallen flat, '' he added.
`` It [ OPEC ] might need to take action if oil prices fall below a certain threshold, '' S & P Global Platts ' Claudio Galimberti said Monday on CNBC's `` The Exchange. '' `` And probably they are already at about that threshold. ''
When attempting to quantify the potential impact on oil demand, some Street analysts have used the 2002 outbreak of SARS as a reference case. On Thursday JPMorgan said that if the virus becomes a `` SARS style epidemic, '' it could shave $ 5 per barrel from oil prices.
One key difference for the oil market this time around, however, is that since the early 2000s air travel has increased in China, and jet fuel demand has been a key driver of global growth.
But RBC said that while jet fuel demand has already softened, it's not yet a `` global demand story, '' and that estimating `` the impact on what a SARS-like event would have on oil price '' is an `` exercise in futility. ''
That said, the virus is sending traders scrambling and several bullish events last week, including a halt in Libya's production as well as a surprise decline in U.S. inventory, weren't enough to prop up prices.
`` The corona virus has quickly morphed from being a curiosity to a potentially more ominous threat to the global economic and oil demand outlook for 2020, '' Simmons Energy analyst Bill Herbert said Sunday.
- CNBC's Michael Bloom and Sam Meredith contributed to this report. | business |
Global stock markets roiled as China's coronavirus spreads | Investors worldwide have been spooked by the rapid spread of the Chinese coronavirus, with stock markets around the globe sharply lower on Monday.
The death toll rose to 81 as of early Monday, according to Chinese officials, with more than 2,860 people now infected. A fifth case in the U.S. has now been confirmed and the virus has been detected in Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.
The Stoxx 600 — which tracks a broad number of European stocks — fell by more than 2%, while in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 384 points, or 1.3%. The 30-stock Dow briefly fell more than 500 points earlier in the day.
While most markets in Asia were closed for the Lunar New Year, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by more than 2% while the Topix slipped 1.6%.
The flight from risk comes amid concerns about a possible economic fallout from the virus, with experts recalling the impact of the SARS crisis in 2003. At a press conference on Sunday, China's top health official said the virus's transmission ability is strengthening.
In a note Monday morning, Danske Bank Chief Analyst Allen von Mehren said that the Chinese economy is likely to take a short-term hit and a possible GDP ( gross domestic product) reduction of one percentage point in the first half of 2020.
`` The SARS epidemic lasted three to four months but it is hard to say if this is any guide. While the government response is faster, the new virus seems to be spreading faster. It is too early to judge when it will get under control, '' von Mehren said.
Traditional so-called safe haven assets surged on Monday. Spot gold was trading up by 0.7% at just above $ 1,581 a troy ounce, while the Japanese yen changed hands at 108 against the dollar. The Swiss franc was also among the strongest-performing currencies.
Government debt prices also surged, sending bond yields tumbling. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.606% to hit its lowest since Oct. 10, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield slid to 2.059%.
The yield on the German 10-year Bund plummeted to -0.3690% while U.K. 10-year Gilt yields also fell to 0.522%, their lowest since October 10.
Danske Bank analysts projected that the Chinese service sector is likely to take the main hit this time around, and is much bigger than it was during the SARS epidemic, now standing at 54% of GDP versus 42% in 2003.
From a global perspective, China now accounts for 19% of the global economy in purchasing power parity ( PPP) adjusted terms versus 9% in 2003.
A mitigating factor could be that the import content of the service sector is much smaller than in manufacturing, but the uncertainty is likely to cause some global economic spillover, von Mehren suggested.
`` Hence, there is a clear risk that the expected recovery in growth and PMIs ( Purchasing Managers ' Index) could be somewhat delayed or at least be more muted. As in China, the effect should be temporary, though, '' he added.
`` We are in uncharted waters as a virus of this kind has not taken place in the more modern economy that China is today, with much wider transport networks and being more integrated with the global economy. '' | business |
Dow to sink, Kobe Bryant remembered and Wuhan virus spreads | With the coronavirus spreading, world stocks are tumbling and perceived safer investments are rising. U.S. stock futures are sliding early Monday following Wall Street's worst day of 2020 on Friday. The Dow already has a four-day losing streak in place, its longest since August, and is coming off its largest weekly loss in five months. The S & P 500's weekly decline last week was its largest in nearly four months. ( CNBC) * Treasury yields move lower as coronavirus fears escalate ( CNBC) * Gold climbs to 2-week high as virus fears spark safety buying ( Reuters) * International oil prices drop below $ 60 as China virus drives demand concern ( Reuters) More than 2,800 people in China are now infected by the fast-spreading Wuhan coronavirus while more countries have reported their first confirmed cases. Chinese officials have said there are 2,862 confirmed cases, with the death toll rising to 81. On Sunday, the United States on Sunday reported its fifth confirmed case in Arizona. ( CNBC) Travel-related stocks are likely to be hit once again as coronavirus cases mount, including major airlines like United ( UAL), Delta ( DAL), American ( AAL) and Southwest ( LUV), and cruise line operators like Royal Caribbean ( RCL), Norwegian ( NCLH), and Carnival ( CCL). Starbucks ( SBUX) and McDonald's have temporarily closed near the Chinese city of Wuhan.
On today's U.S. economic calendar, the government will release its December report on new home sales at 10 a.m. ET. Arconic ( ARNC), DR Horton ( DH) and Sprint ( S) are among the companies issuing quarterly earnings this morning, while Whirlpool ( WHR), Juniper Networks ( JNPR) and Rambus ( RMBS) report after the bell.
Federal safety investigators launched a probe into a helicopter crash in the LA area that killed basketball legend Kobe Bryant and eight others, including his 13-year-old daughter, Gianna. The cause of the crash has not yet been determined. NBA athletes, officials and fans mourned Bryant's death in messages and memorials across social media. ( CNBC) * 'Terrible, ' 'heartbreaking, ' 'devastated ' — World leaders and athletes mourn the death of Kobe Bryant ( CNBC) * Athletes pay tribute to Kobe Bryant. 'He was like a little brother to me ' Michael Jordan says ( CNBC)
A passenger plane crashed in central Afghanistan, senior Afghan officials said today. According to local media, the plane went down in territory under Taliban control. It was initially reported to be a jet from state-owned Ariana Afghan Airlines. However, the airline's acting CEO has denied that one of their planes has crashed. ( CNBC)
President Donald Trump is expected to disclose details of his long-delayed Mideast peace proposal to Israeli leaders today. Trump will hold separate, back-to-back meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, head of the centrist Blue and White Party. Gantz is Netanyahu's rival in March 2 elections. ( Reuters)
Trump's impeachment trial enters a pivotal week as his defense team resumes its case and senators face a critical vote on whether to hear witnesses or proceed directly to a vote that is widely expected to end in his acquittal. The articles of impeachment charge Trump with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. ( AP) Democrats stepped up their calls for former national security advisor John Bolton to testify at the trial after an explosive report alleged that in his unpublished book, he said Trump personally tied Ukraine aid to an investigation of the Bidens, an account that conflicts with the president's. ( NBC News) * Trump denies telling Bolton Ukraine aid was tied to investigations ( The Hill)
Sen. Bernie Sanders holds an edge in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary as the key presidential nominating contest nears, according to an NBC News/Marist poll. The Vermont senator garners the support of 22% of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State, the survey found. Ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg trails at 17%. ( CNBC) * Sen. Elizabeth Warren seeks spark in final Iowa push after getting Des Moines Register endorsement ( AP)
U.S. state attorneys general will meet Justice Department attorneys next week to share information on their investigations into Google ( GOOGL), Reuters reported. The probes revolve around monopolistic behavior that may harm consumers through Google's control of online advertising markets and search traffic.
AbbVie ( ABBV) sold a number of assets to Nestle and AstraZeneca ( AZN), as it seeks to win regulatory approval for its $ 63 billion acquisition of drug maker Allergan.
Fiat Chrysler ( FCAU) filed court motions Friday to dismiss a lawsuit filed by rival automaker General Motors ( GM). Fiat Chrysler said GM does not have sufficient grounds to bring a racketeering case that alleges bribery of union officials.
Kraft Heinz ( KHC) Chief Executive Officer Miguel Patricio told the Wall Street Journal that he wants the food maker to make fewer but bigger bets on new products, as its older brands suffer a sales decline.
Winnebago Industries ( WGO) was rated `` overweight '' in new coverage at KeyBanc, which sees recreational vehicle shipments stronger than consensus for 2020 and is also optimistic on the increasing benefits of Winnebago's 2016 acquisition of towable vehicle maker Grand Design.
The 62nd Grammy Awards were dominated by 18-year-old Billie Eilish. The first-time Grammy nominee secured five awards including record of the year, album of the year, song of the year, best new artist and best pop vocal album. ( CNBC) The Grammy awards took place at the Staples Center where Kobe Bryant played for the Lakers. Alicia Keys and Boys II Men sang `` It's So Hard to Say Goodbye to Yesterday '' in tribute to the basketball star. ( CNBC) | business |
Apple: Impact of coronavirus on China business | The deadly coronavirus is battering stocks from U.S. companies that have high revenue exposure to China.
Apple, which both does the majority of its manufacturing in China and considers it a key market, is down almost 3% on Monday as part of a broader sell-off.
`` Given the coronavirus tragedy and the worries around the consumer impact on the highly anticipated Chinese New Year, names such as Apple are under pressure this morning with the Street nervous about the China exposure to Cupertino in light of these recent events, '' Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a Monday note.
Apple reported $ 43.6 billion in revenue in 2019 from `` Greater China, '' including Taiwan and Hong Kong, all of which have reported cases of coronavirus exposure. China accounted for 16.7% of Apple's total revenue for the year.
Other global brands with high China revenue exposure include retailers, restaurant brands and hotels, including Estee Lauder, Nike, Marriott, McDonalds and Starbucks.
China has also placed travel restrictions during Lunar New Year, which is a major gift-giving celebration in the region, which could slow sales of Apple products.
However, some analysts believe that Chinese consumers would already have purchased gifts before travel restrictions began. Ives said on Monday that Apple didn't introduce price cuts or Lunar New Year sales as it has in previous years, which he said is a sign of strong demand.
`` For Apple we note that much of the Chinese/surrounding countries consumer buying of iPhones/AirPods has already taken place in the lead up to the start of Chinese New Year... with a strong December and January likely already in the books, '' Ives wrote.
Apple reports earnings for the December quarter on Tuesday.
Follow @ CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech industry news. | business |
OPEC president sees little impact from coronavirus on oil market | - OPEC president Mohamed Arkab said on Monday he expects an outbreak of coronavirus in China to have little impact on the global oil market for now, but added that producers were ready to react to any new developments.
`` The impact on the prospects for the world oil demand would be low, '' Arkab, who is also Algeria's energy minister, said in a statement carried on the country's state news agency APS.
`` The organisation ( OPEC) is closely monitoring the development of the oil market in conjunction with the development of the recent coronavirus epidemic. '' ( Reporting By Hamid Ould Ahmed; Editing by Angus McDowall and Jan Harvey) | business |
Asia markets Jan 27: Coronavirus outbreak affecting investor sentiment | Japan traded lower on Monday as investors appeared to be wary about the fast-spreading coronavirus, which started in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 2.03% to 23,343.51 while the Topix index declined 1.61% to 1,702.57.
Travel-related stocks fell: Japan's biggest airline, ANA, declined 3.02% while shares of travel agency H.I.S dropped 6.77%. Shares of Airtech, which manufactures products specializing in clean air system and are used by hospitals, rose 17.06%.
The Japanese yen, which is considered a safe-haven currency, changed hands at 109.06 per dollar, weakening from an earlier level around 108.72.
In India, the Nifty 50 was down 0.4% while the Sensex slipped 0.44%.
Markets in Australia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are closed for public holidays.
U.S. futures also pointed to declines on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average implied to drop around 285 points at Monday's open as of 2:28 p.m. HK/SIN.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of its peers, traded at 97.860, climbing from an earlier low around 97.783.
`` Uncertainty continues to weigh on markets with increasing concerns about the deadly and contagious coronavirus, which continues to spread, '' Liz Kendall, senior economist at ANZ Research, wrote in a morning note.
More than 2,700 people in China have been infected by the deadly pneumonia-like virus that comes from a large family of viruses known as coronaviruses.
Chinese authorities said 461 people are in critical condition while 80 people have died so far from the disease. The scale of the virus outbreak is already affecting the Chinese economy, according to preliminary data.
Internationally, more cases have also been reported in countries like the United States, Singapore, Australia, and South Korea.
Gold prices rose on Monday as the precious metal is seen as another safe-haven asset in times of uncertainties. Spot gold was up 0.57% to $ 1,579.29 an ounce while U.S. gold futures rose 0.45% to $ 1,578.9.
Oil prices declined during Asian trading hours as traders worried about demand for crude in light of the coronavirus outbreak. U.S. crude futures fell 2.36% to $ 52.91 a barrel while global benchmark Brent was down 2.22% to $ 59.34. | business |
US stocks most exposed to China consumer market hit by coronavirus | The deadly coronavirus, whose spread accelerated around the globe, is battering the stock market, and some U.S. companies are particularly vulnerable to the disease as their growth has been driven by Chinese consumers.
Wall Street analysts are issuing warnings about retailers, restaurants and hotels that have high revenue exposure to China as some of their businesses are forced to close after the death toll in the country climbed to at least 80.
Global brands Estee Lauder and Nike both generate 17% of their revenue from mainland China each year, Credit Suisse estimated based on the companies ' filings. The bank said if the coronavirus continues, both companies can see a 3% to 5% decrease in earnings per share next quarter.
Shares of Nike and Estee Lauder plunged 1.7% and 4%, respectively, on Monday as the broad market sold off on the deepening fears. Other apparel retailers with high China exposure include Coach and Kate Spade parent company Tapestry, Tommy Hilfiger, and Calvin Klein owner PVH and Vans parent VF.
The coronavirus ' impact on those retailers could be worse than the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, as many of them rely more on the Chinese consumers, according to Credit Suisse analyst Michael Binetti.
`` China now a much bigger input to revs/EPS for global brands, '' Binetti said. `` The rate of retail sales growth in China slowed by about half during the peak of SARS. ''
Amid the fast-spreading virus, China has restricted travel for at least 35 million people across 15 cities, suspended tour groups and closed major tourist destinations, which creates a challenging environment for some U.S. hotels.
Citi said American hotel companies that have `` significant '' exposure to China include Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt Hotels, whose stocks have tumbled more than 6% each in the past five sessions.
Marriott received 7.5% of total fees, or $ 260 million, from China in 2019, while Hyatt's exposure is about 10% of total fees from the country, according to Citi.
Casino stocks are also taking a hit as visits to the Chinese territory of Macao declined by 60% year over year through the third day of the Chinese New Year holiday, according to Deutsche Bank. Shares of Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts International are all under pressure Monday, down as much as 8%.
Bank of America downgraded Wynn Resorts to neutral from buy on Monday as analysts turned sour on the stock due to the virus.
`` Understandably, the Macau focused gaming names have traded off more than the broader market as they are 1) highly exposed to domestic Chinese travel, 2) the timing is concurrent with Chinese New Year, '' Bank of America equity analyst Shaun Kelley said Monday.
Due to travel restrictions and forced closure, some U.S. restaurants that have large footprints in China are also feeling the pain.
McDonald's, Starbucks and Yum China have all shut down some of their stores in China in response to the outbreak, leading analysts to worry about their near-term revenue picture given their big China exposure.
`` We estimate that Starbucks has the greatest exposure as measured by percentage of WW system revenues and operating income, followed by McDonald's & Domino's, '' Guggenheim analyst Matthew DiFrisco said in a note.
The analyst said about 10% of Starbucks sales and up to 15% of its operating income come from China. There are about 3,300 McDonald's locations in China, with 10% year-over-year unit growth, DiFrisco said
— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting. | business |
Market outlook for Tuesday: Apple, Starbucks, 3M and AMD earnings, consumer confidence | Here are the most important things to know about Tuesday before you hit the door.
Apple reports first quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday. Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting the Tim Cook-led technology giant to report earnings per share of $ 4.54, compared with the $ 4.18 per share earned in the same period last year. Revenue is forecast to come in at $ 88.5 billion, topping $ 84.3 billion in revenue during the same period a year prior.
`` We believe the most interesting things about this report will be commentary around TV+ uptake as well as demand in China, '' Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall said in a note to clients on Monday.
Hall said he will be watching if there is a shift in preference to Chinese phone brands, which could drive share loss for Apple this year. Investors will also be listening for any commentary on the deadly Chinese coronavirus that is rapidly spreading through Asia, fueling fears of a global slowdown.
Shares of Apple are up about 26% in the past three months and up nearly 100% in the past 12 months.
3M, Starbucks and AMD also report quarterly earnings on Tuesday. 3M earnings are a good gauge of the manufacturing economy, which had its weakest ISM reading in a decade in December. Starbucks earnings are a good look into consumers in China, where the coffee company's same-store sales continue to grow each quarter. Starbucks said it is temporarily closing some of its stores in China due to the coronavirus. AMD earnings should signal if there will be a pickup in chip buying in 2020, which some analysts predict.
Manufacturing company 3M is expected to report earnings of $ 2.11 on revenue of $ 8.114 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet. 3M earned $ 2.31 per share on revenue of $ 7.945 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Shares of 3M rose 7% in the past three months.
Coffee chain Starbucks is forecast to report earnings of 76 cents per share on revenue of $ 7.112 billion, compared to the 75 cents per share on revenue of $ 6.633 billion earned it the same period the prior year, according to FactSet. Shares of Starbucks have jumped nearly 7% in the past three months.
Semiconductor stock AMD is forecast to report earnings per share of 31 cents on revenue of $ 2.107 billion, compared with the 8 cents on revenue of $ 1.419 billion earned in the fourth quarter of 2018. Shares of AMD have rocketed more than 50% in the past three months.
Pfizer, Lockheed Martin, LVMH, PulteGroup and eBay also report earnings on Tuesday.
We 'll get a read on how consumer's view business conditions when the Conference Board release's January's consumer confidence index at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday. The monthly index measures the public's confidence in the health of the U.S. economy.
Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a read of 128.0, up from December's read of 126.5. Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December.
Major events ( all times ET):
FOMC meeting begins
8:30 a.m. Durable goods
9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller home prices
10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence
10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Survey
10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Services Major earnings:
3M ( before the bell)
Pfizer ( before the bell)
Lockheed Martin ( before the bell)
Xerox ( before the bell)
LVMH ( before the bell)
PulteGroup ( before the bell)
United Technologies ( before the bell)
Harley-Davidson ( before the bell)
Apple ( after the bell)
Starbucks ( after the bell)
eBay ( after the bell)
AMD ( after the bell)
Alaska Air Group ( after the bell)
Stryker ( after the bell)
Xilinx ( after the bell)
— with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom. | business |
Oil markets: Coronavirus in focus | Crude prices extended declines on Monday, dropping below $ 60 for the first time in nearly three months as the death toll from China's coronavirus rose and more businesses were forced to shut down, stoking expectations of slowing oil demand.
Brent crude fell by $ 1.79 a barrel, or 2.95%, to $ 58.90 by 0903 GMT, its lowest since late October. Oil prices last fell below $ 60 on Nov. 1.
U.S. crude was down by $ 1.63, or 3%, at $ 52.55.
Global stock exchanges also fell as investors grew increasingly anxious about the widening crisis. Demand spiked for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen and Treasury notes.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud said on Monday that OPEC and allied global producers led by Russia can help to balance the oil markets in response to any demand changes.
He also said the Kingdom, the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC), was watching developments in China and that he felt confident the new virus would be contained.
Markets are being `` primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative expectations adopted by some market participants despite ( the virus ') very limited impact on global oil demand, '' the minister said.
Prince Abdulaziz added that the outbreak of the SARS virus in 2002-2003 did not lead to a significant reduction in oil demand.
OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, have been withholding supply to support oil prices for nearly three years and on Jan. 1 increased their agreed output reduction by 500,000 barrels per day ( bpd) to 1.7 million bpd through March.
Prince Abdulaziz said on Friday the aim of OPEC+ was to cut seasonal inventory builds that typically occur in the first half of the year. All options would be open when OPEC+ meets in Vienna in March, he said.
Brent crude oil prices dropped by nearly 14% since a spike in tensions between the United States and Iran took prices to a closing high above $ 68 a barrel on Jan. 6.
The losses since are in spite of a fall in production from Libya by 75% to less than 300,000 barrels per day because of an ongoing blockade on oilfields.
`` Investor fears on oil demand have risen considerably, driven by unfavorable U.S. inventories and... concerns on impact from the coronavirus outbreak, '' Goldman Sachs said in a note. | business |
Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Estee Lauder, Wynn Resorts, Clorox, American Airlines & more | Check out the companies making headlines midday Monday:
Estee Lauder — Shares of the cosmetic company sunk more than 5% following a downgrade from Oppenheimer to perform from outperform on heightened fear about the spreading deadly coronavirus. The Chinese consumer has represented a key driver in Estee Lauder's business in recent years, offsetting weakness in the United States, Oppenheimer noted. Credit Suisse estimates the makeup company has about 17% revenue exposure in China. Oppenheimer lowered its price target on Estee Lauder to $ 210 per share from $ 230 per share.
American Express — American Express shares dipped more than 3% after an analyst at Stephens downgraded them to equal weight from overweight. The analyst noted the downgrade was based on valuations, adding he doesn't see a `` material catalyst '' to drive the shares higher in 2020.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals — Inovio Pharmaceuticals surged 23% after the biotech company said last week it was granted $ 9 million by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus. The stock has rallied nearly 60% in the past week. However, analysts have warned the company could still be years away from any vaccine for commercial production.
Clorox — As the broader market sold off on China virus worries, shares of Clorox rose more than 2%. Investors bought into the consumer goods manufacturer, which makes disinfecting wipes that kill bacteria and prevent the spread of diseases.
Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, MGM Resorts — Shares of major hotel and casino chains dropped on fears the coronavirus would dent travel. Through the third day of the Chinese New Year holiday, Macau visits were down 60% year-over-year, according to Deutsche Bank. Wynn Resorts was also downgraded by Bank of America to neutral from buy on Monday. The firm lowered its price target to $ 150 per share from $ 160 per share. Shares of Wynn Resorts dropped 7.6%, shares of Las Vegas Sands tanked 7.3% and MGM Resorts fell 2.3%.
Nike — Shares of Nike fell 1.8% amid the deepening coronavirus fears. The retailer has high revenue exposure to China, generating roughly 17% sales each year from mainland China, according to Credit Suisse estimates. The bank said it could see a 3% to 5% decrease in earnings per share next quarter if the virus continues to spread.
Micron Technology, Nvidia — The chipmakers dropped 4% and 4.6%, respectively, as worries over how the coronavirus would impact the global economy increased. Micron was on pace for its biggest decline since Oct. 18, while Nvidia headed for its worst session since Aug. 23.
American Airlines — Shares of the airline slid more than 6% and was among the travel-related stocks under pressure Monday as the number of deaths from the coronavirus rose. United Airlines, Delta and Hawaiian Holdings were all down more than 4% as investors weighed the impact from a potential global slowdown in air travel.
Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Concho Resources — Energy stocks followed oil prices lower amid growing fears of a global economic slowdown. Chevron and Exxon slid 1.4% and 2%, respectively, while Concho dropped 4.8%. U.S. crude prices slid 2.5%.
—CNBC's Yun Li, Maggie Fitzgerald, and Pippa Stevens contributed to this report. | business |
South Korea stocks drop about 3% as coronavirus deaths cross 100 in China | Stocks in Asia declined on Tuesday amid fears about the ongoing coronavirus outbreak that continues to spread.
South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.09% to close at 2,176.72. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 shed 0.55% to close at 23,215.71 while the Topix index declined 0.6% to end its trading day at 1,692.28.
Meanwhile, shares in Australia declined on the day, as the S & P/ASX 200 dropped 1.35% to 6,994.50.
The Straits Times index in Singapore also fell 2.17% in afternoon trade.
Overall, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was 0.81% lower.
Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed on Tuesday for holidays.
Chinese health authorities said Tuesday that the coronavirus outbreak has killed 106 people and infected 4,515.
`` What is becoming a little clearer is that the Chinese economy will take a hit for a time, travel and tourism is being impacted in China, in Asia and elsewhere, including in Australia where the Chinese inbound tourism market is the largest market in exports of personal tourism and education, '' David de Garis, a director and senior economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a Tuesday morning note.
Shares of airline stocks in the region dropped on Tuesday. South Korea's Korean Air Lines plummeted 6.69% while Australia's Qantas Airways fell 5.22%.
Similar losses were also seen elsewhere in the region, with Singapore's Singapore Airlines declining 2.95% and Japan Airlines slipping 0.38%.
`` To the extent that we're still seeing exponential growth in the people that have contracted the virus and people that have died from the virus, I think the cruise companies and the broader travel companies are gon na have to be very cautious … with no potential end in sight, '' James Hardiman, managing director of equities at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC's `` Squawk Box '' on Tuesday.
`` In the near term, beyond just travel in and around China, my concern would be that all of these media reports … would start to … put some downward pressure on overall travel bookings outside of China even among Western consumers and I think there is some evidence that … at least very near term, that's likely to happen, '' Hardiman said.
Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow dropped 453.93 points to close at 28,535.80, wiping out its gains for the year. The S & P 500 dropped 1.6% to 3,243.63. The Nasdaq Composite had its worst day since August, dropping 1.9% to 9,139.31.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 97.954 after seeing levels below 97.6 last week.
The Japanese yen, often seen as a safe-haven currency in times of economic uncertainty, traded at 109.04 against the dollar after seeing an earlier high of 108.81. The Australian dollar changed hands at $ 0.6760 after touching an earlier low of $ 0.6744.
Oil prices were mixed in the afternoon of Asian trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures slipping fractionally to $ 59.27 per barrel. U.S. crude futures, on the other hand, rose slightly to $ 53.17 per barrel. | business |
Analysts are now starting to downgrade some stocks because of the coronavirus | The Chinese coronavirus is forcing Wall Street to turn sour on certain stocks.
Bank of America downgraded shares of Wynn Resorts to neutral from buy and Oppenheimer downgraded shares of cosmetic company Estée Lauder to perform from outperform on heightened fear about the spreading deadly virus. Shares of the hotel chain fell 8% and shares of the skincare company ticked 4% lower on Monday.
`` Following recent developments in China with the coronavirus coupled with the premium valuation at which shares trade, we no longer view the risk/reward as attractive from current levels, '' Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh said in a note to clients about Estée Lauder.
Stocks fell last week as worries about the Chinese coronavirus stoked fears about slowing global growth. The virus has killed more than 80 people and infected nearly 2,800 people in China. China's National Health Commission said on Sunday the ability of the virus to spread was getting stronger and the World Health Organization's director general is traveling to China to meet with government and health officials.
Dow futures were off by more than 400 points on Monday as coronavirus fears deepened.
Shares of travel and tourism related stocks, like airlines and hotel companies, got hit last week as the Wuhan virus made its way to the United States. Shares of hotel and casino chain Wynn Resorts fell more than 11% last week and Chinese-exposed makeup company Estée Lauder fell nearly 10% in the same period of time.
`` Understandably, the Macau focused gaming names have traded off more than the broader market as they are 1) highly exposed to domestic Chinese travel, 2) the timing is concurrent with Chinese New Year, '' Bank of America equity analyst Shaun Kelley said in a not to clients on Monday.
China has restricted travel for at least 35 million people across 15 cities, suspended tour groups and closed major tourist destinations, including Shanghai Disney World and Hong Kong Disney World.
In recent years, the Chinese consumer and the Asia-Pacific region have represented a key driver in Estée Lauder's business, offsetting weakness in the United States, said Parikh. Credit Suisse estimates the makeup company has about 17% revenue exposure in China.
`` Although difficult to measure the precise impact and the length at which the coronavirus-related challenges could persist within the Chinese economy, we now expect EL's higher margin travel-retail segment to be adversely impacted at least in Q3 ( Mar.) and potentially longer, '' said Parikh.
Oppenheimer lowered its price target on Estée Lauder to $ 210 per share from $ 230 per share. Bank of America lowered its price target on Wynn to $ 150 per share from $ 160 per share.
While Wynn and Estée Lauder are two of the only downgrades CNBC spotted so far on Monday, other analysts are raising flags about the coronavirus ' impact on singular stocks. UBS said cruise lines Carnival and Royal Caribbean could be impacted.
`` The coronavirus outbreak originated in Wuhan remains the most important topic in gaming and lodging space this week, '' said Jefferies, mentioning Wynn, Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts.
— with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom. | business |
Stocks Have Worst Day Since October Over Coronavirus Worries | Supported by
U.S. stocks followed European markets down amid concerns that the coronavirus could hurt the global economy.
By Matt Phillips and Katie Robertson
Just as the world economy appeared to emerge from the uncertainty of the trade war, the spread of the dangerous coronavirus in China has pierced the calm that had settled over financial markets.
The S & P 500 closed down 1.6 percent on Monday — its second straight drop, which wiped out much of the market’ s gains since the start of the year, and its sharpest decline since Oct. 2, when the trade war was stoking fears of a domestic slowdown.
President Trump announced the “ Phase 1 ” trade agreement with China on Oct. 11, contributing to weeks of placid trading that pushed stocks to a series of records, making the coronavirus-driven slump all the more jarring.
“ There was already reason to question whether markets were a bit too buoyant, ” said Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at the investment advisory firm Silvercrest Asset Management. “ Sometimes it takes something like this to refocus their attention on potential downsides. ”
Stocks with close ties to the Chinese market or the travel industry — or both — bore the brunt of the selling.
American Airlines fell more than 5 percent, and Wynn Resorts, which operates casinos in Macau, a special administrative region of China and a gambling haven for Chinese high rollers, tumbled 8 percent.
Companies with links to China’ s key role in the global technology supply chain also slumped.
IPG Photonics, which makes lasers for cutting and welding and makes a significant share of its sales in China, fell more than 6 percent. Two chip makers, Applied Materials and Skyworks Solutions, which sell heavily in the Chinese market, each fell more than 4 percent.
The S & P’ s drop followed declines of more than 2 percent for the major stock benchmarks in Europe. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo also sank 2 percent, while many other markets in Asia — including the Shanghai Stock Exchange — were closed for the Lunar New Year.
China extended the Lunar New Year holiday by three days until next Sunday in an effort to limit travel and contain the outbreak, which started in the city of Wuhan.
Concerns about travel restrictions — the Chinese government has effectively sealed off Wuhan and other cities, affecting 56 million people — helped push down oil prices and shares of major oil companies.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, slipped below $ 60 a barrel, its lowest since October. Prices have declined about 10 percent since Jan. 17, when China confirmed multiple deaths from the virus. On Monday, the S & P 500 energy sector was down 2.8 percent.
The outbreak has come at a crucial period for Chinese business, which could complicate official plans to reinvigorate growth in the aftermath of the trade-war tensions of the last two years.
The country’ s economy, trying to shrug off its worst slowdown in nearly three decades, is already hurting from the virus’ s effects on travel and tourism. And consumer spending — which helps fuel the economy over the holiday period — could be dampened as more residents stay home.
The outbreak has China’ s leaders under pressure, and some experts have expressed concerns that the government was too slow to respond and could even make the situation worse.
The sheer size of the Chinese economy, the second largest in the world after that of the United States, makes any upheaval there a serious factor in the pace of global economic growth. Creeping doubts among investors have already helped drive down bond yields in recent weeks. And on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, considered a gauge of investor expectations for economic growth and inflation, sank to 1.60 percent, the lowest level of the year.
But as long as the spread of the virus remains contained, the economic implications should not be dire for the United States.
The American economy is relatively insulated from trade, and the important consumer sector continues to show signs of strength. Unemployment remains near 50-year lows, and economic growth, while relatively slow, is steady. Inflation and interest rates are low, with signs that those low rates are finally starting to filter through to the broader economy.
With rates on 30-year fixed mortgages below 4 percent, housing has recently picked up the pace. Sales of previously built homes are at their highest level since early 2018. Homebuilders are reporting strong demand for more affordable offerings.
On Monday, D.R. Horton — the largest American homebuilder by house closings — reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter, sending its shares up 2 percent. Lennar, the second-largest builder, reported similarly bright numbers this month.
“ Across all of our geographies, we’ re feeling pretty good about the traffic, pretty good about the demand in the most recent quarter, ” Bill Wheat, chief financial officer of D.R. Horton, said on a conference call with analysts. | business |
Beyond Meat soars on Denny's deal as rest of market slides | Beyond Meat shares finished out the day up 4.4% on Monday after it announced an expansion of its partnership with Denny's.
The Denny's restaurant chain will expand a Los Angeles launch of the plant-based Beyond burgers to locations across the U.S. and Canada, the two companies announced Monday. Denny's rolled out Beyond burgers at its LA locations in October.
Beyond's gains come amid a broader market drop as companies react to the coronavirus outbreak. All three major U.S. indexes fell more than 1% Monday.
The latest news comes as Beyond Meat competes with its main rival, Impossible Foods, for sought-after partnerships with American fast-food chains.
Since it went public in May of last year, Beyond Meat has announced partnerships with Subway, Del Taco, KFC, Dunkin ' Brands and others.
Beyond Meat has been a volatile stock since its public debut. Shares jumped 163% on the first day of trading, and its highest closing price of nearly $ 235 in July was more than $ 200 above its IPO price.
The stock then came crashing back to earth. As the stock slumped from its peak, Beyond Meat announced a secondary offering and shares fell more than 10%. Then, as a lockup from the IPO expired at the end of October, allowing early investors and insiders to sell their shares, the stock fell back below $ 100 per share.
— CNBC's Jesse Pound contributed to this report. | business |
CDC is monitoring 110 possible coronavirus cases across 26 states in US | U.S. health officials are currently monitoring 110 people across 26 states for the coronavirus, including the five patients who contracted the deadly infection in China and brought it back to America.
The disease, which has killed at least 81 people in China and sickened more than 2,800 worldwide, isn't spreading within the community in the U.S. and the risk to the public right now is still considered low, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call Monday.
`` We understand that many people in the United States are worried about this virus and how it will affect Americans, '' Messonnier said. `` Every day we learn more, every day we assess to see if our guidance or our response can be improved. ''
The number of `` patients under investigation '' in the U.S. has almost doubled from the 63 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said were under surveillance on Thursday. The CDC says 32 people have tested negative for the virus.
`` While that number is 110, we are certainly prioritizing based on [ patients under investigation ] that might be at higher risk, '' Messonnier said.
The CDC confirmed Sunday a fifth U.S. case of the virus — a patient in Maricopa County, Arizona, who recently traveled to Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the disease's outbreak and where the majority of cases have been reported.
Messonnier said the CDC has screened roughly 2,400 people flying from Wuhan to five major U.S. airports and is considering expanding its screening. The agency increased its travel warning for all of China, asking people traveling to practice `` enhanced precautions. ''
`` This outbreak is unfolding rapidly and we are rapidly looking at how that impacts our posture at the border. We're certainly considering broadening of that screening, '' she said.
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that usually infect animals but can sometimes evolve and spread to humans. Symptoms in humans include fever, coughing and shortness of breath, which can progress to pneumonia. Physicians have compared it to the 2003 outbreak of SARS, which had a short incubation period of two to seven days.
China's National Health Commission minister, Ma Xiaowei, said on Sunday that the incubation period could range from one to 14 days, and the virus was infectious during incubation, unlike the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Reuters reported.
On Monday, the CDC said it hasn't seen `` any evidence of patients being '' infected `` before onset. ''
Messonnier said the incubation period for the new virus is somewhere between two and 14 days. There's been some debate over how contagious the disease is and she said it may not be known for a while.
`` This outbreak is really unrolling in front of our eyes, '' she said.
The so-called R naught, a mathematical equation that shows how many people will get an illness from each infected person, is somewhere around 1.5 to 3, she said. Measles, which is one of the most contagious infections in the world, has an R naught of around 12 to 18, by comparison, she said.
The CDC is trying to speed up testing and to get the tests in the hands of state health officials. It currently takes the CDC about four to six hours to make a diagnosis once a sample makes it to its lab.
U.S. health officials have warned that the flu or other respiratory illnesses could complicate identifying more cases. They recommend that people call a health-care provider before seeking treatment so the appropriate measures can be put in place.
In China, some 50 million people are now under travel restrictions. Shanghai Disney is closing until further notice at a time when the theme park would normally be packed with tourists during the Lunar New Year holiday. Starbucks and McDonald's also closed stores in Hubei province where Wuhan is located.
The WHO's director-general, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is traveling to Beijing to meet with government and health officials. According to the organization, more data needs to be collected before the virus, which can spread through human-to-human contact, is declared a global health emergency. The WHO declined at two emergency meetings last week to say it was a worldwide emergency. | business |
Fed may soothe market fears about coronavirus with steady rate policy | The Fed is not expected to take any action on its benchmark fed funds rate this week, but it is likely to reassure markets that it is watching the outbreak of the coronavirus and other geopolitical uncertainties.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to brief the press after the Fed releases its statement Wednesday afternoon, and it is in those comments investors will likely get the most insight into the Fed's thinking. The Fed starts its two-day meeting Tuesday.
`` They might say something about paying attention to global developments, but I wouldn't expect them to do anything at this point, '' said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. Strategists expect the Fed has been watching tensions in the Middle East and now the coronavirus.
`` They're looking at the global economy and it doesn't look like it will have much affect at the moment, '' he said.
It is still unclear how serious the virus will become, or how it will impact the Chinese and other economies. By Monday, the virus had affected 2,900 people and killed 82.
On the policy side, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady and not signal any other moves.
`` I think the Fed will be silent, '' said Joseph Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. `` They 've come into 2020 with their work done. This is a political year. They 've done their job when it comes to cutting rates. I think they're in wait-and-see mode. ''
The biggest issue for markets is when the Fed will slow and ultimately stop its purchases of Treasury bills, an effort credited by some for a surge in liquidity that has helped boost risk assets, particularly stocks, and tighten credit spreads. The Fed began purchasing $ 60 billion a month to expand its balance sheet and increases reserves, after problems in the short-term funding market created a temporary snap up in overnight rates.
The Fed has calmed the short-term lending market with the purchases and also ongoing repurchase, or repo, operations. It has said it would continue its operations to help the repo market through the tax season, when there could be higher-than-normal demand for short-term cash. The repo market is basically the plumbing for the financial markets and is where financial institutions go for short term cash.
`` It would be nice if they did discuss it, but I don't know if they're going to or not, '' said John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets. Briggs said he doesn't expect Powell to reveal much in the way of specifics on how it will wind down its Treasury bill purchases. He expects the Fed to say in March that it is paring back those purchases from $ 60 billion to $ 40 billion, and then will taper them down.
BlackRock's Rick Rieder said he will be listening for how the Fed describes inflation since it has said it is willing to let it run `` hotter '' than its 2% target, though the measure it watches has not yet met the target. He, too, is looking for clarification on the Fed's plans for its T-bill buying program.
He expects the Fed to discuss it by mid-second quarter. `` I think they 'll start to taper it down, and I think they 'll be very deliberate and prescriptive about how they're going to do that, '' said Rieder, BlackRock's global CIO of fixed income.
He said the Fed is adding a lot of liquidity to the financial system on its own, but it is even more massive when combined with the efforts of the People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank.
`` I think they 'll start to taper down the program some time during or toward the middle or the end of the second quarter, '' he said. `` My sense is they're beginning the discussions but those discussions will gather momentum in the next month or two. ''
Rieder said he expects more Fed officials to become concerned about their policy causing too easy financial conditions, boosting stocks and tightening credit spreads. `` My sense is that's going to be very slow in incubating that idea. ''
`` The one thing I 've got my eye on is I think at some point in the next couple of months, assuming what is happening now is a relatively near term risk, I think a lot of the discussion is going to head toward financial conditions, '' Rieder said. `` You 've had some of the Fed members talking about financial conditions. ''
The Fed is also expected to boost the interest rate on excess reserves by five basis points. That's a technical tool that it would hope would push its fed funds rate slightly higher. The fed funds rate has been at 1.55%, the low end of its 1.50 to 1.75% range.
`` Historically, the Fed has made these adjustments when the funds rate has been trading within 5 basis points of the borders of the target range, as it has recently, '' notes JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. `` The markets and the public seem to have understood that these technical adjustments do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy and we expect that to continue to be the case next week. ''
| business |
Coronavirus: US companies suspend operations, restrict travel as outbreak spreads | Disney, McDonald's, Starbucks and other U.S. companies with significant footprints in China are suspending operations and instituting travel restrictions as they respond to the outbreak of the coronavirus.
The virus has now taken the lives of at least 82 people in China and sickened 2,900 worldwide, including in the U.S. and Europe.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed Sunday a fifth U.S. case, and President Donald Trump has said the U.S. has offered help to China. U.S. health officials said Monday they are monitoring 110 people across 26 states for the coronavirus, including the five patients who contracted the infection in China and brought it back to the U.S.
In an effort to control the spread of the virus, Chinese authorities have suspended public transportation in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and in at least nine other cities, Reuters reports.
As the virus continues to spread throughout China and across borders, it's hitting businesses around the world. The municipal government of Shanghai issued a notice Monday ordering companies not to resume work after the Chinese New Year holiday until Feb. 3, instead of Jan. 31. As a result, the Shanghai stock exchange will remain closed until Feb. 3.
All 3 major U.S. indices fell by more than 1% in intra-day trading Monday as investors reacted to the outbreak.
The travel sector is at substantial risk when public health threats like the coronavirus emerge, said CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council Gloria Guevara, who was the tourism minister for Mexico during the H1N1 outbreak.
She said 90% of the economic cost of the outbreak `` is not related to the virus. It's related to the panic, '' and it can take between 10 months and 19 months for tourism and spending in an area to fully recover from a local outbreak.
Most of the consequences of an outbreak like this are caused by mismanagement, lack of communication and panicked responses, Guevara said. She pointed to the SARS outbreak of 2003 as one example, saying it cost the global economy between $ 40 billion and $ 60 billion and cost China 2.8 million jobs.
`` The management of the crisis is crucial. They need to be proactive and transparent. They need to work closely with the private sector and we need to not panic, '' she said of international health officials. `` They need to contain the spread of the virus and we fully support that, but at the same time we need to take the necessary measurements to protect the sector. ''
Each U.S. company is responding to the situation in its own way: suspending operations, restricting employee travel, canceling holiday celebrations and more. Here's how some companies have responded so far:
— CNBC's Leslie Josephs, Amelia Lucas, Michael Wayland, Sarah Whitten, Dawn Kopecki and Reuters contributed to this report. | business |
Specialized launch all new Sirrus X 'grammuter ' bike for 2020, with wider tyres, new geometry and 1x gearing | Like this site? Help us to make it better.
Specialized have launched an all new version of their popular Sirrus hybrid/commuter bike, the Sirrus X. This one is more than just a city dweller, with wider tyres, 1x gearing and disc brakes on all models.
6 of the best 2019 new-generation hybrids Your complete guide to Specialized's 2019 road bike range
Like the standard Sirrus, the Sirrus X is unisex: `` specifically designed as a shared design for Fitness riders '', say Specialized. Rather than just taking the Sirrus, sticking some slightly bigger tyres on and changed the name, the Sirrus X also has a slightly different geometry, with a reach that is 10mm shorter and 15mm of extra stack.
Sirrus X 2.0 and 3.0 have 42mm tyres, while the higher end 4.0 and 5.0 drop down to 38mm because the addition of Future Shock suspension negates the need for very wide tyres to add comfort; the top-end Sirrus 5.0 is the only model that is set up for tubeless tyres.
All Sirrus X bikes have a single chainring for simplicity, and include eyelets at the dropouts and fork for mudguard mounting. Mounts for racks differ depending on the model.
There are also new standard Sirrus models for 2020, starting with the Sirrus 1.0 with an alloy frame and rim brakes, and going all the way up to the £1,999 Sirrus 6.0 with a carbon frame and fork, Future Shock and Shimano 105 shifting - all have either triple or 2x chainring set-ups as opposed to 1x on the Sirrus X models.
Models and prices of all Sirrus and Sirrus X bikes coming into the UK are as follows:
Sirrus X 5.0: £1,599 Sirrus X 4.0: £999 Sirrus X 3.0: £699 Sirrus X 2.0: £549 Sirrus X 2.0 Step-through: £549
Sirrus 6.0: £1,999 Sirrus 4.0: £1,299 Sirrus 3.0: £799 Sirrus 2.0: £549 Sirrus 2.0 Step-through: £549 Sirrus 1.0: £449
More details and all your buying options are now on the Specialized website. Does the dawn of the Sirrus X mean gravel and commuter bikes are now crossing over? We even reckon we 've coined a new term to accurately describe it ( see headline). Let us know what you think in the comments of course...
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Arriving at road.cc in 2017 via 220 Triathlon Magazine, Jack dipped his toe in most jobs on the site and over at eBikeTips before being named the new editor of road.cc in 2020, much to his surprise. His cycling life began during his students days, when he cobbled together a few hundred quid off the back of a hard winter selling hats ( long story) and bought his first road bike - a Trek 1.1 that was quickly relegated to winter steed, before it was sadly pinched a few years later. Creatively replacing it with a Trek 1.2, Jack mostly rides this bike around local cycle paths nowadays, but when he wants to get the racer out and be competitive his preferred events are time trials, sportives, triathlons and pogo sticking - the latter being another long story.
I can never tell the difference
Jail for starving man with strong stomach who chomped off stranger's ear in Dundee pub
Good points. It also looks like it's part of a NCN route. Typically, there's no signage to warn drivers of cyclists, just a tiny route marker. But...
It seems at times that with covid lockdowns etc, some have been off the road and forgotten how to drive. I had to work a night lasy year and drive...
Too many squirrels on the road. | general |
Oil Prices Rise On Surprise Crude Draw | The American Petroleum Institute API estimated on Tuesday a surprise large crude oil inventory draw of 4.27 million barrels for the week ending January 24, compared to analyst expectations of a 482,000-barrel build in inventory. Last week saw a build in crude oil inventories of 1.57 million barrels, according to API data. The EIA & rsquo; s estimates, however, were of a draw of 400,000 barrels for that week. Oil prices were up earlier in the day prior to the afternoon data release, ending a five day price slide as fears of oil demand destruction at the hands of the deadly Coronavirus gripped the oil markets. Even with Libya & rsquo; s near-complete production shutdown of nearly 1 million barrels per day, oil prices were still down week over week. At 343 pm EST on Tuesday the WTI benchmark was trading up $ 0.46 0.87% at $ 53.60 & mdash; roughly down $ 5 per barrel under last week & rsquo; s levels. The price of a Brent barrel was also trading up slightly on Tuesday, by $ 0.33 0.56%, at $ 58.91 & mdash; off more than $ 6 per barrel compared to last week & rsquo; s prices. The API this week also reported a build of 3.27 million barrels of gasoline for week ending January 24, after last week & rsquo; s large 4.5-million-barrel build. This week & rsquo; s large gasoline build compares to analyst expectations of a 1.32-million barrel-build for the week. Distillate inventories were down by 141,000 barrels for the week, compared to last week & rsquo; s large 3.5-million-barrel build, while Cushing inventories rose by 1.02 million barrels. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending January 17 held fast at 13.0 million bpd, a record high for the United States. At 443 pm EDT, WTI was trading at $ 53.57, while Brent was trading at $ 58.88. By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com | business |
Traders Increase Short Interest In Big Oil Stocks | Short sellers have increased their bearish bets on four of six of the biggest oil companies as oil prices came under intense downside pressure after the coronavirus outbreak in China. & nbsp; Short interest in ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Petrobras, and Occidental Petroleum increased in the period January 1 to 15, while the number of bearish bets on Chevron and BP dropped, 24/7 Wall St reports. In the first half of January 2020, Occidental Petroleum saw the biggest jump in short interest among the six oil stocks that 24/7 Wall St tracks. Short interest in Oxy & rsquo; s shares surged by 31 percent to 27.92 million shares in the two-week reporting period that ended on January 15. Oxy & rsquo; s share price rose by nearly 15 percent by January 15, but then started to slide in lockstep with oil prices, which were heavily weighed down by the coronavirus outbreak in China, which has investors and traders concerned that oil demand will be affected. Among the stocks 24/7 Wall St watches, Brazil & rsquo; s state-held oil firm Petrobras saw the second-biggest jump in short interest & mdash; shorts increased by 30 percent between January 1 and 15, while Petrobras & rsquo; s stock lost 6.7 percent in that period. ConocoPhillips saw short interest rise by 7 percent in the two weeks through January 15, with 12.18 million shares shorted, or around 1 percent of the company & rsquo; s total float. & nbsp; Short interest in ExxonMobil also increased, by 2 percent to 39.58 million shares, or 0.9 percent of the U.S. supermajor & rsquo; s free float. Short interest in BP, however, plunged by 22 percent, according to 24/7 Wall St, while BP & rsquo; s shares gained 2.6 percent in the first half of January. Short interest in Chevron also dropped, by 2 percent, but its stock fell by 3.6 percent in the two weeks through January. After January 15, the share prices of many oil stocks have been sliding, as fears of weakened global oil demand amid the coronavirus outbreak have been depressing oil prices for several days in a row. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com | business |
A Brief History of Energy Markets | The transition from LIBOR to RFR has brought challenges for structured products. There are still legacy IBOR products to consider and at the same time the pricing and risk systems need to be upgraâ¦
To ease the pain associated with meeting compliance targets, global institutions are exploring ways to become more efficient by integrating regulatory and business initiatives.
Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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The establishment of organised energy markets followed the commoditisation of energy sources, including associated carbon emissions, through non-tangible environmental allowances. The ultimate goal of commoditisation was to manage the price risk associated with energy commodities, which was achieved with the contract standardisation of the underlying commodities, designed to help serve the needs of the stakeholders of the energy complex.
There has always been price risk associated with any commercial exchange of commodities. However, several historical milestones are intrinsically associated with both the emergence of some organised energy markets and the need to manage the associated price risks. Although energy commodities have been physically traded for centuries ( think of coal or wood), it was not until the latter part of the 20th Century that the need to standardise contracts and manage risk became a truly global task, as demonstrated by the aftermath of the 1970s oil crisis. This crisis was pivotal to satisfying the world’ s needs for standardisation and risk management.
We intuitively identify energy with crude oil. This naturally occurring
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The Energy Supply and Demand Conundrum | The transition from LIBOR to RFR has brought challenges for structured products. There are still legacy IBOR products to consider and at the same time the pricing and risk systems need to be upgraâ¦
To ease the pain associated with meeting compliance targets, global institutions are exploring ways to become more efficient by integrating regulatory and business initiatives.
Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
You are currently accessing Risk.net via your institutional login.
If you already have an account please use the link below to sign in.
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Edited by Bill Coen and D. R. Maurice
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Global energy supply and demand is a complex conundrum that provides an optimal breeding ground for inefficiencies that can subsequently be monetised through the development of systematic trading strategies. Energy sources, which are ultimately consumed by end-users, can be classified as primary or secondary according to their nature ( Eurostat, 2018). Primary energy is any naturally occurring form of energy. If the primary energy source is not depleted when used, we describe this energy as renewable. This definition therefore includes sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat. Non-renewable primary energy comes from sources that will eventually run out, such as fossil fuels ( crude oil, coal and natural gas), nuclear energy and, in some instances, biomass.
In most cases, a transformation process is required to accommodate the available primary energy to the end-user’ s needs, from heating to transportation, lighting to mining, construction to agriculture. The transformation process, which could be refining crude oil, burning coal or harvesting wind energy through windmills, typically results in secondary energy sources, such as electricity or petroleum products ( Marx
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You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User ( named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https: //www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
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To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in. | general |
Your Blueprint for Trading AMD Earnings Reactions | Macro Context and Influences
The S & P 500 ETF ( NYSEARCA: SPY) is our macro market indicator. The SPY sold-off on a double whammy of the Corona virus and falling yields taking the steam out of the financials. Buyers were able to defend the breakeven price level at 323.50 line in the sand to keep the SPY positive on the year. The Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC) rate decision and Q & A session after 2pm EST on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2020, will be the macro market catalyst. This may accelerate the direction of the gap in the last hour for AMD shares on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis
AMD shares have exploded in the past year rising from $ 19.05 to hitting an all-time high at $ 52.81 last Friday on Intel earnings before selling off to the $ 47.95 fib. Utilizing the rifle charts, the weekly stochastic has peaked and crossed down but remains above the 80-band. This places the 5-period moving average ( MA) resistance at 49.46. The daily stochastic has formed a crossover down through the 80-band triggering a sell-off clear through the 5-period MA at 50.76 and 15-period MA at 49.44. If AMD closes under the weekly 5-pd MA at 49.46 on Friday’ s close, then a market structure high ( MSH) sell trigger forms next week under Friday’ s intraday low price. The daily upper Bollinger Bands ( UBBs) target 53.38 fib and lower Bollinger Bands ( LBBs) target 44.50s. A breakout through the 52.89 dual 0.618 fibs can short-squeeze shares towards the next 0.618 fib at 54.15. A breakdown below the 46.93 fib can drive shares to the 45.56 area which is a 0.618 fib and the 44.50s LBBs.
document.write ( ' < a style= '' text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal; color: # 696969; '' target= '' blank '' rel= '' nofollow '' href= '' https: //www.ame ' + 'ricanconsumernews.net/scripts/click.aspx? NativeDisplayAdID=588 & ImpressionID=0 & UserID=0 & Placement=PlaceOnArticlePage '' > '); Wall Street legend who picked Apple in 2003 — and Bitcoin in 2016 — shares his # 1 pick for 2020s.
Sympathy Stocks:
AMD tends to correlate best with semiconductors in the storage/memory and graphic chips space. These include leading graphics chip maker NVIDA ( NASDAQ: NVDA), storage/memory chip makers Micron Technologies ( NYSE: MU), Western Digital ( NYSE: WDC) and Seagate Technologies ( NYSE: STX). NVDA tends to lead AMD, but the roles can reverse ( dog wags the tail) after AMD earnings release. Pay close attention if they start to diverge directions intraday.
Trading Game Plan: Post-Market
AMD is a very liquid trading stock that’ s ideal for scaling into positions. It’ s a good idea to still watch NVDA as a lead stock. Secondary stocks MU and WDC also provide laggard opportunities during the day. There are three basic envelope ranges: 51.67 x 47.50, 52.89 x 46.35 and 54.15 x 45.56.
Very experienced traders may consider using these envelopes as reversion levels in the post-market earnings action. The basic rule of thumb is to scalp reversions quickly and not get trapped in a grind. If AMD gaps down hard, then watch for a 5-min MSL trigger off a lower fib for a coil into the 5:00 pm EST conference call. Don’ t try to understand the reason behind the price moves, just focus on the reactions off the price inflection levels. Chip stocks are all about sentiment.
Trading Game Plan: Next Day Market Open
With the complete layout of the playing field, make sure you understand the three-reactions off the open on gappers. You can play the initial reversions off a fib in the first 20-minutes but make sure to shift to the 5-minute and 15-minute rifle charts for the third reaction trend move to materialize near 10:00 am EST. Pay attention if NVDA starts to move inversely with AMD and watch for laggard opportunities trading MU and then WDC. If AMD is a dumper, then watch for NVDA to make a market structure low ( MSL) bottom to scalp coils on AMD, MU, and WDC. If AMD continues to sell-off despite the rest of the peers bouncing, then negative correlation has taken over and consider fading the peers on an MSH trigger. The average scalp can range from $ 0.05 to $ 0.40 with thick liquidity in the beginning of the day but gets tighter with time. Don’ t hesitate to take stops after three or more scale-ins and make sure to spread out the entries wider to tighter as the day wears on.
8 5G Stocks to Own in 2020
To understand 5G is to understand that the “ G ” stands for generation. Like the previous generations that came before it, 5G promises to enhance the way consumers and businesses experience the internet. Yes, 5G will certainly deliver faster connection speeds. But I wouldn’ t be nearly as excited about this technology if it simply meant I could download a movie in seconds instead of minutes. Where 5G offers the most intriguing benefit is in the way it promises to enhance our increasingly connected future. Autonomous cars, industrial automation, augmented reality ( AR) and virtual reality ( VR) will all be transformed by the increased speed and reduced latency of a 5G network. One of the exciting aspects of 5G is the many ways investors can profit. There is an infrastructure being built to support the roll-out of this technology. It can’ t just use the existing cell phone towers. There are also chips that have to be created to support mobile devices. The 5G revolution will also benefit software providers. And then, of course, there are the wireless providers who will be introducing 5G phones and tablets sometime in 2020. Here’ s the rub. The build-out of a 5G infrastructure is behind schedule. And some industry experts are suggesting the real growth from 5G may not come until 2021. But there’ s no question that the infrastructure is being built now. And we’ ve selected some stocks that look like they don’ t already have the growth of the stock factored in.
View the `` 8 5G Stocks to Own in 2020 ''.
Complete the form below to receive the latest headlines and analysts ' recommendations for your stocks with our free daily email newsletter: | business |
U.S. Stocks May Bounce Because Apple Earnings and Data May Distract Them | U.S. stock futures were pointing to modest gains on Tuesday, with investors hoping for a distraction from worrying coronavirus news via a big earnings roster that includes Apple. That’ s as the death toll from the virus reached 106 and confirmed infections in China topped 4,000. Germany also reported its first case.
On the heels of the worst daily loss in months for major indexes, Dow and S & P 500 futures were up 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures were up about nearly 0.5%.
“ Investors are evidently torn between worrying that the past week is the beginning of a January 2018 rerun, and fearing that the rally will quickly resume, ” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG, told clients.
“ Perhaps this one is ‘ the big one’, but given the number of false crises over the past year the smart money is probably going to buy the dip, ” he said.
On Tuesday, investors will get plenty of distractions, with earnings from Apple and chip maker AMD after the close, and 3M, United Technologies, Xerox, Pfizer and Harley-Davidson before the open. That’ s along with durable goods and consumer confidence data.
Away from the headlines, small-cap companies in the so-called emerging U.S. Midwest are being overlooked, according to Christopher Beck, Macquarie’ s chief investment officer of the small/mid-cap value equity team.
“ Small-caps by definition have tended to be higher risk than large-caps, but they’ ve also over time tended to have better returns, and frankly if you look at any long-term charts, small-cap value has been a great place to be, ” he says. | business |
Wining & Losing ETF Areas on Coronavirus Outbreak | China’ s Coronavirus outbreak has been spreading fast and wide, raising alarms that it could turn into a global pandemic. The virus is similar to SARS, which erupted in late-2002 in China and caused significant short-term economic losses. Global markets were hit hard in recent trading sessions ( read: Best and Worst ETFs of Last Week).
So far, there have been reports of about 3000 infected cases and the death toll in China has reached more than 100. What’ s more, there are about 17 confirmed cases in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Rest of Asia, Europe, North America and Australia has confirmed cases of about 26, 3, 6 and 4, respectively.
Against this backdrop, we highlight ETF areas that are in winning and losing positions owing the coronavirus eruption ( read: Don't Panic About Virus, Buy 5 Beaten-Down Top-Ranked ETFs).
Losing Areas
Tourism
The Wuhan virus outbreak has lowered travel demand due to lockdown in Chinese cities, limiting movement of about 56 million people. Traveling has been affected on the global level too. Investors should note that the SARS outbreak was estimated to have hurt 30% of travel and tourism employment in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan Province and Vietnam, per the UN.
Along with China’ s transportation sector, the event is likely to disrupt global air travel. U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS has lost about 4.7% in the past week ( as of Jan 27, 2020). Hotel and casino operators Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS and Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN, both of which have considerable exposure to China, have lost 9.7% and 12.9% in the same time frame, causing VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF BJK to retreat 4.8%. Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF PEJ has lost 3.1%.
Energy
China is the world's second-largest oil consumer. Chinese city lockdowns and fears of global contagion have hurt the transportation sector, causing adrop in jet and diesel fuel demand. JPM Commodities Research now expects “ a price shock of up to $ 5 ( a barrel) if the crisis develops into a SARS-style epidemic. ”
As a result, United States Oil Fund, LP USO has lost 9.3% in the past week and United States Brent Oil Fund, LP BNO fell 8.6%. iShares U.S. Energy ETF IYE has retreated 5.3% during the time frame ( read: Virus Scare Weighs on Oil ETFs: Go Short for the Near Term).
Copper
Copper miners bore the brunt as China is a huge consumer of copper. iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN JJC has lost about 7.2% in the past week, while Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX lost 8.8%.
Livestock
Trading of wild animals has been temporarily suspended in an attempt to contain the outbreak as the seafood and wildlife are deemed to be the source of the disease. iPath Series B Bloomberg Livestock Subindex Total Return ETN COW has lost about 4.3% in the past five days ( as of Jan 27, 2020).
Agriculture
There are growing fears that the outbreak will hurt global demand for grains. Prices of corn, soybeans and wheat slipped on Jan 27. Notably, China is key consumer of U.S. soybeans. Invesco DB Agriculture Fund DBA has lost 3.4% in the past week.
Winning Areas
Biotech & Healthcare
Healthcare and biotech stocks are likely to do well on the growing need for the formulation of vaccines to fight the virus as well as higher demand for hygiene-related products. This puts the spotlight on stocks like Gilead GILD and Moderna MRNA.
Reuters reported that Gilead is in talks with researchers in China and the United States about the potential for its drug remdesivir to be used in treating coronavirus. Meanwhile, Moderna is developing vaccines to cure respiratory syndromes and flu. Both the companies have exposure to iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF IDNA. Investors can also consider Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund XLV.
Gold
While industrial metals were beaten-down on growth worries, safe-haven metal gold glittered on the virus scare ( read: 5 ETFs to Protect Your Portfolio From Coronavirus Threat).
Bonds
The U.S. benchmark treasury bond yield slumped on Jan 27 to 1.61% from 1.84% recorded on Jan 17 on safe-haven rally. As a result, bonds benefited. Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF SCHQ has risen 3.3% in the past week.
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Click to get this free report Las Vegas Sands Corp. ( LVS): Free Stock Analysis Report Wynn Resorts, Limited ( WYNN): Free Stock Analysis Report U.S. Global Jets ETF ( JETS): ETF Research Reports Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF ( PEJ): ETF Research Reports Global X Copper Miners ETF ( COPX): ETF Research Reports VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF ( BJK): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF ( BNO): ETF Research Reports Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLV): ETF Research Reports iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN ( JJC): ETF Research Reports United States Oil ETF ( USO): ETF Research Reports Invesco DB Agriculture ETF ( DBA): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Energy ETF ( IYE): ETF Research Reports Moderna, Inc. ( MRNA): Free Stock Analysis Report Gilead Sciences, Inc. ( GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report Intellicheck Mobilisa, Inc. ( IDN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
Opinion: Watch these stocks and ETFs to gauge the impact of the coronavirus on markets | The new coronavirus is an obvious concern to stock market investors. The media are full of explanations and predictions.
So what should investors be focused on? Let’ s explore the issue with the help of a chart.
Chart
Please click
here
for an annotated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA,
+1.81%
,
which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.82%
.
Note the following:
• The stock market has been very overbought. I wrote on the first report of the virus: “ Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable. Sometimes it is an exogenous event that topples stocks. What could be happening currently? Could it be that the deadly virus spreading across China stops the buying frenzy in stocks? The first U.S. case was reported Tuesday. ” Please see “
How an external event could stunt U.S. stocks
. ”
• The chart shows that, last week before the stock market drop, The Arora Report gave a signal to raise cash and hedges. Our portfolios are now up to 63% protected.
• The chart shows that The Arora Report also gave a signal to short-sell Nasdaq 100 ETF
QQQ,
+0.72%
prior to the stock market drop. For those who could not short, a signal was given to buy inverse leveraged ETF
SQQQ,
-2.41%
.
SQQQ goes up when the stock market goes down.
• The chart shows that the trend line that has been in place since October has now broken. This should be of concern to the momo ( momentum) crowd and short-term traders but should not be of concern to long-term investors.
• The chart shows the support zone. If the support zone is not held, that should be a concern to long-term investors.
• The chart shows relative strength index ( RSI) divergence. The RSI divergence foretold the present pullback.
• Investors suffer from a recency bias. Please see “
This 25-year stock market chart shows investors are under a spell of bullishness
. ”
• Today’ s recency bias is that events similar to coronavirus are short-lived and stocks should be bought on dips.
• To counter recency bias, investors should look at the 1918 Spanish flu in which 30 million to 50 million people died and 500 million people were infected.
• Since 1918, both medical science and communications have dramatically advanced. These should help contain the virus. On the flip side, the world is more interconnected now and there is significantly more travel compared to 1918. Better communications help control the disease, but they can also be instrumental in creating panic.
• Scientists have already determined the genetic code of this particular coronavirus. This should make it possible to make a vaccine. However, a potential vaccine is several months away.
• It is conceivable that one of the existing antiviral drugs including those used against HIV may prove to be effective against this virus.
• Highly applicable here is Arora’ s Second Law of Investing and Trading: “ Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets. ”
Be realistic
• The only realistic way for investors to deal with coronavirus is to think in terms of probabilities. In our analysis at The Arora Report, the probability is better than 90% that by spring this virus will be well-controlled.
• Even though the probability is low that this virus will become something more than recent virus epidemics, investors should not ignore this small probability.
• So far significant mutations have not been found, indicating that this is a recent virus. However, not enough is known about how this virus may mutate. Any mutation may have a major impact on the eventual result.
• Keep a close eye on statements from the World Health Organization. These statements tend to move the stock market.
• Typically when the number of new cases stops going higher, stock market starts going higher.
• A huge risk to the stock market is that this virus has come along at a time of extreme bullishness in the stock market. This is a negative. Please see “
Extreme greed in the stock market is producing a bad setup as earnings season starts
. ”
Stocks and ETFs
• As important as the coronavirus is, earnings from mega-caps Apple
AAPL,
-0.61%
,
Amazon
AMZN,
-0.18%
,
Facebook
FB,
-0.07%
,
Google parent Alphabet
GOOG,
+1.52%
GOOGL,
+1.36%
and Microsoft
MSFT,
-0.18%
are ahead. If these earnings are less than stellar, look out below.
• Semiconductor stocks have been a leading indicator. Intel
INTC,
+1.85%
reported great earnings. Please see “
Intel shows the way for conservative investors in this expensive stock market
. ” Keep a close eye on semiconductor stocks such as AMD
AMD,
+1.05%
,
Micron Technology
MU,
-2.67%
,
Nvidia
NVDA,
+2.20%
and Applied Materials
AMAT,
-3.42%
.
Please see “
This U.S. company will benefit as China tries to catch up in semiconductors
. ”
• Tesla
TSLA,
-0.95%
stock has been an epic short squeeze. How this short squeeze behaves will be an early clue. Full disclosure: Based on our algorithms, one of The Arora Report’ s services took a short position in Tesla close to the recent top.
• Keep an eye on oil. An easy way for investors who do not watch futures is to watch ETF
USO,
+2.66%
.
Full disclosure: The Arora Report has a position in inverse oil ETF
US: DWT
,
which goes up when oil goes down, and also a short position in USO. Oil can also often be an early clue for the stock market.
• Keep an eye on the difference between the movement in gold ETF
GLD,
-0.55%
and silver ETF
SLV,
+0.58%
.
In theory, gold should be going up if the crisis worsens because of safe-haven demand. Silver has a higher beta than gold. However, silver in theory should be going up less than it would normally or even maybe going down because silver is impacted by economic activity.
• In addition to protecting long-term portfolios, adding to positions as stocks and ETFs fall into Arora buy zones within the constraints of prescribed cash and hedge levels, investors may consider taking advantage of short-term trading opportunities. Please see “
How and when prudent investors ought to buy these 5G stocks
. ”
Disclosure: Subscribers to
The Arora Report
may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time.
Nigam Arora
is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background who has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at
Nigam @ TheAroraReport.com
. | business |
ExxonMobil Stock Hits Decade Low | Exxon yesterday closed at the lowest in a decade after eight daily declines in a row, once again highlighting the new challenges the oil industry is facing. Bloomberg notes that Exxon dropped out of the S & amp; P 500 & rsquo; s top ten list last year. It is unlikely to return there soon in the midst of new shareholder demands and a shift in priorities. Shareholders are insisting on more returns after the 2014 price crash. But a growing number of them are also insisting that oil companies diversify away from their core business of extracting and selling fossil fuels. Even if the shareholder petitions initiated by Dutch group Share This continue to fail, they are symptomatic of a change in thinking among investors that Big Oil should have already detected. Yet instead of diversifying away from its core business, Exxon is investing heavily in new oil and gas assets, Bloomberg & rsquo; s Kevin Crowley notes. The company was probably emboldened by one of the longest strings of oil discoveries off the coast of Guyana and this year plans to spend $ 30 billion on developing these and other assets, including LNG in Mozambique, with the option of spending even more than that. Yet this is problematic for shareholder returns because Exxon does not have enough cash on hand for dividends and will have to fund these from asset sales and debt, according to Edward Jones & amp; Co analyst Jennifer Rowland, who spoke to Crowley. It is not just the difference in company and shareholder priorities, either. Most analyst seem to expect oil demand to weaken this year on the back of the China coronavirus outbreak, and with plenty of supply available, Exxon & rsquo; s grand plans for Guyana may boomerang. The company is reporting fourth-quarter financial results this Friday and analysts expect a lower result than a year earlier. The good news is that at least they are not expecting a loss at this point. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com | business |
Coronavirus Makes Alibaba ( BABA) a Buy | Looking at US markets from a high level, all the major indices started this week off with about a 1-2% haircut yesterday for their worst day this year so far.
But given the heart of the disease is in China, it makes sense that Chinese based stocks are the most exposed. The large-cap China ETF, FXI ( NYSE: FXI) is down close to 12% and is fast undoing all the growth seen since the cooling of the US-China trade war since August. Even Alibaba ( NYSE: BABA) with its $ 550 billion market cap isn’ t immune.
After notching all time highs earlier this month, the e-commerce giant has seen its stock pull back over 13%. It opened yesterday with a gap down of 6% which Wall Street clearly thought was overdone as shares caught a decent bid off the lows throughout the day but still finished down 4%. For many investors, assuming the coronavirus doesn't spell the end of the world, these fear-driven dips are welcome. Stocks like BABA were starting to look a little frothy, with RSI well over 70 going into last weekend, indicating overbought conditions as its shares had rallied nearly 40% since October.
document.write ( ' < a style= '' text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal; color: # 696969; '' target= '' blank '' rel= '' nofollow '' href= '' https: //www.ame ' + 'ricanconsumernews.net/scripts/click.aspx? NativeDisplayAdID=492 & ImpressionID=0 & UserID=0 & Placement=PlaceOnArticlePage '' > '); A groundbreaking new technology is expected to be in every household in America by the end of the year... This technology has the potential to make over 266 million smartphones become obsolete forcing nearly every American to switch over to this new `` 5G Device ''.
BABA’ s most recent earnings reports shows an e-commerce engine that’ s running well and justified the rally. They comfortably beat analyst expectations for EPS and revenue in their Q2 report last November with the latter figure showing 40% growth year on year. The company’ s move into cloud computing is bearing fruit, with revenue from that division alone up 64%. Income from all operations was up over 50% year on year.
Coming into 2020, shares were up over 150% from their US IPO in 2014. Towards the end of last November, the company listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange and hit the ground running with a 7% on their debut. With close to $ 12 billion raised, it was 2019’ s biggest IPO. If it weren’ t for the current outbreak, almost all signs would be pointing upwards.
Since 2016, its stock has gone toe to toe with Amazon ( NASDAQ: AMZN) with very little between them until the second half of last year. BABA’ s attempts to break into Europe by undercutting Amazon’ s seller fees haven’ t borne fruit just yet and the US-China trade war has been a significant headwind for them. The coronavirus outbreak adds to this but none of these are fundamentally worrying red flags.
The company dominates the Chinese and Asian markets and has a sales engine that’ s only waiting for the current headwinds to ease for it to continue stretching its legs.
Technically, there’ s a strong upward trend line in play since 2015 that could be a natural entry point if coronavirus driven weakness continues in the coming weeks. If shares fall below the $ 200 mark, investors could look to work orders in the $ 170- $ 180 range and consider it a gift if they’ re filled. Monday’ s trading action showed there are plenty of dip buyers on the sidelines looking to get involved, who may have been put off by the frothiness that shares were seeing in the past month.
The company’ s next earnings report is due Feb 12th and will hopefully confirm the momentum we’ ve been seeing in their recent reports. It will likely be the following report in May before any potential damage to revenue and sales from the epidemic filters through.
Until that happens though, investors have a $ 550 billion e-commerce company that’ s growing revenue at 40% year over year down and whose stock is down 10% from all-time highs on fears of a health epidemic. This has all the signs of being a golden opportunity to buy the dip.
20 High-Yield Dividend Stocks that Could Ruin Your Retirement Portfolio
Almost everyone loves a company that pays strong dividends. Who doesn't like receiving a check every quarter for simply owning a stock -- especially if that stock is paying you back 4%, 5% or even 10% of its share price in annual income each year?. In a world where 10-year treasuries are yielding just above 2%, it seems hard to go wrong when buying a stock that's yielding significantly above the going rates on fixed-income assets. Unfortunately, the market rarely offers a free lunch. While high-yield stocks may have a lot of near-term attractiveness, those same high-yields can often signal significant danger ahead. In some cases, it might mean that the company's dividend will stop growing or won't grow as fast as it used to. Worse yet, the company could cut its dividend, reduce the income you receive from owning the stock and drive down the value of the shares that you own. 4% -plus yields might seem like an easy opportunity to boost the investment income you receive, but high-yield stocks can just as often be a track reading to snare unsuspecting investors. It's not always easy to tell the difference though. This slideshow highlights 10 high-yield dividend stocks that are paying an unsustainably large percentage of their earnings in the form of a dividend. These companies are all paying out more than 100% of their earnings per share in the form of a dividend, a sign that the advertised high-yield probably won't last.
View the `` 20 High-Yield Dividend Stocks that Could Ruin Your Retirement Portfolio ''.
Complete the form below to receive the latest headlines and analysts ' recommendations for your stocks with our free daily email newsletter: | business |
Ethiopia, Kenya, get first suspected China's coronavirus cases — Quartz Africa | A Kenya Airways passenger who arrived in Nairobi on Tuesday ( Jan.28) afternoon on a flight from Guangzhou displaying flu-like symptoms is the first suspected case of the Wuhan originating coronavirus in East Africa. The patient is currently being quarantined at Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi.
This comes after the Chinese Embassy in Kenya issued a press release saying it is “ closely monitoring…the entry of Chinese into Kenya ” with the Chinese community, reiterating measures being taken in China to prevent the spread of the virus.
Kenya’ s potential coronavirus case, along with that of a 34-year old student who arrived on a flight from Beijing to the Ivory Coast last Sunday, highlights the pressing need for African governments to take preventative measures against the spread of the deadly virus. With an average of eight direct flights between China and African nations per day, the African continent is especially vulnerable.
Ethiopia, a country with increasingly close ties to China, is also screening flights from countries with proven cases of coronavirus contraction. The BBC reported up to four people suspected to have virus have been put in isolation in Addis Ababa. Three of the people were students from universities in the Wuhan area. Two fever testing areas have been constructed at Bole International Airport and two hospitals in Addis Ababa remain on standby for potential cases.
Kenyan port authorities began increasing surveillance at all ports of entry and measuring passenger body temperatures as early as last week. According to Kenya Airways the standing procedure is that passengers are “ …required to undergo quarantine screening by the health authorities before being cleared to board any aircraft ”.
Nigeria also took preemptive steps early on by implementing “ exit screening measures ” for passengers entering the country from Wuhan and mobilizing a task force through the Nigeria Center for Disease Control ( NCDC) aimed at “ assessing and managing the risk of importation to Nigeria ”.
While prevention and fever checks upon entry is an essential first step, it may not be enough. Despite measures set in place, the Kenya Airways passenger was screened and cleared by China Port health authorities at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and cleared for boarding.
The problem is the coronavirus’ long incubation period. While direct flights from cities in China to major hubs in East and West Africa range from anywhere from 12 hours to13 hours, coronavirus symptoms can appear anywhere between two to 14 days after exposure, according to the US government’ s Center for Disease Control ( CDC). In African regions where borders are porous and passengers hop on short flights between countries for business and travel, a unified response to containing the coronavirus’ spread is key.
When Ebola broke out in West Africa in early 2014, “ untracked contacts across borders ” curtailed efforts towards to contain the disease despite early intervention by local governments and the World Health Organization ( WHO).
With the fallout from Ebola serving as a powerful lesson, the WHO has been coordinating with officials in Africa since news of the virus’ spread hit.
In addition to working closely with health authorities to set protocols and implement emergency preparedness procedures, the WHO has “ sent guidance to all ministers in the Africa region to highlight issues that they have to deal with, ” said Micheal Yao, Africa program manager for emergency response at WHO.
As Lunar New Year ( one of China’ s biggest holidays for travel) nears to an end, and Chinese nationals that call countries in Africa home return from affected regions, governments may face increasing pressure to regulate the virus’ spread.
Over the past decade, an estimated one million Chinese workers have come to call countries in Africa home. Mauritius, an African country with such a high Chinese immigrant population that it was the first African country name Lunar New Year an official holiday, has become a popular destination for Chinese tourists in Africa. Last Friday, the island nation announced a mandatory quarantine on all passengers ( irrespective of nationality) who have visited the city of Wuhan or Hubei province over the past 14 days..
Sign up to the Quartz Africa Weekly Brief here for news and analysis on African business, tech and innovation in your inbox | tech |
OPEC+ Halts Slide In Oil Prices | After several days of losses, oil prices stabilized on Tuesday morning after OPEC and partners announced their intent to extend output cuts till June of this year. Chart of the Week U.S. oil production is expected to average 13.3 million barrels per day mb/d in 2020, an increase of 9 percent from last year, according to the EIA. The agency sees output averaging 13.7 mb/d in 2021. The agency expects the rig count to continue to decline through most of 2020. But improved rig efficiency means that output could continue to climb, albeit at a slower rate. The EIA sees the Permian averaging 5.2 mb/d this year, up 0.8 mb/d from 2019. Market Movers Key Energy Services NYSE KEG reached a debt restructuring agreement with creditors, helping it avoid bankruptcy. Key is a well-services company based in Houston, and it was delisted from the NYSE last year. Eni NYSE E announced a gas and condensate discovery in the Mahani onshore block in the UAE. Halliburton NYSE HAL was awarded seven contracts for drilling and completion services at the next phase of the Ichthys LNG project in Australia. Tuesday January 28, 2020 The coronavirus continues to send panic through global markets. Oil prices turned positive on Tuesday, with WTI trading close to $ 54 and Brent just above $ 59. With tens of millions of people essentially locked down in China, oil demand is expected to take a hit. & nbsp; OPEC mulls deeper cuts. The sharp drop in oil prices over the past week and fears about a renewed oil supply surplus has OPEC turning on the rumor mill again. An OPEC source says that the group will consider extending the cuts until June, while other source said the group might also consider a deeper cut from current levels. The current deal expires in March. Too much panic Oil has declined by around $ 7 per barrel in a little over a week, and some analysts think the selloff has gone too far. & ldquo; Several questions remain unanswered about the potential fallout from the coronavirus, but if the experience from the 2003 SARS outbreak is any indication, demand worries are likely overdone, & rdquo; Barclays said in a note. Others agreed. & ldquo; We believe coronavirus is a Chinese jet fuel demand story for now and not yet a global demand story, & rdquo; RBC Capital Markets wrote. Libyan oil production falls to 280,000 bpd. Libya & rsquo; s oil production has plunged to 280,000 bpd as the LNA continues to blockade the country & rsquo; s oil export terminals. Libya has very little storage capacity so once filled, output could soon fall further. The head of the National Oil Corp. said that the country & rsquo; s oil production is rapidly falling to zero. Related OPEC Considers Deeper Oil Cuts Amid Virus Market Meltdown Exxon & rsquo; s stock hits 10-year low. ExxonMobil NYSE XOM closed at a 10-year low on Monday. Bloomberg notes that the oil major is running a counter-cyclical strategy & ndash; spending heavily at a time when prices are low and supply is readily available & ndash; in order to profit from the next cycle. Most if its big projects & ndash; Guyana, Mozambique, Gulf Coast petrochemicals & ndash; will not & ldquo; meaningfully begin contributing & rdquo; to cash flow until 2023-2025, Scotiabank said. Goldman Sachs said that its & ldquo; concern & rdquo; is the & ldquo; lack of [ free cash flow ] in the business model if oil prices do not recover. & rdquo; Russia to complete Nord Stream 2. Gazprom will move forward without foreign companies in order to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The project is nearly complete but has been delayed because of U.S. sanctions. & ldquo; The Nord Stream 2 project, which is already 94 per cent complete, will be finished by the Russian side, & rdquo; Gazprom deputy head Elena Burmistrova said. BlackRock planning storage and renewables fund. The world & rsquo; s largest asset manager is creating a multibillion-dollar renewable energy fund, which follows on the heels of its decision to no longer finance coal projects. New Mexico to hit 1 mb/d. The state of New Mexico likely surpassed 1 mb/d of oil production in November, according to Rystad Energy. The southeast corner of the state has become one of the hottest parts of the Permian. & ldquo; Over half of the state & rsquo; s oil production comes from wells set in 2019, making the sub-basin one of the areas with the youngest base production. This is putting pressure on base decline as younger wells decline faster, & rdquo; Rystad said. LNG prices continue to fall. JKM prices are down 40 percent year-on-year, amid a global glut of gas. Prices recently fell below $ 4/MMBtu. If prices fall further, it would put pressure on U.S. natural gas prices, dragging them down even lower. Trump to revise mileage rule. The Trump administration is trimming its plan to rollback Obama-era fuel economy standards in order to boost the odds the plan survives legal challenges. ExxonMobil makes new discovery in Guyana. ExxonMobil NYSE XOM raised its Guyana oil estimates by 2 billion barrels after disclosing yet another discovery. Venezuela weighs privatization. The Venezuelan government is proposing giving shares to foreign companies in the country & rsquo; s oil operations, which would amount to a significant departure from decades of state control. The government has held talks with Rosneft, Repsol BME REP and Eni NYSE E, according to Bloomberg. Tesla & rsquo; s rise could mean a hard fall. Tesla & rsquo; s NASDAQ TSLA extraordinary spike recently & ndash; with its share price doubling since October & ndash; sets up the possibility of a hard fall. By Tom Kool of Oilprice.com | business |
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Cracks in China’ s Facade of Unity | From the outside, China’ s Communist Party appears powerful and effective. It has tightened its control over Chinese politics and culture, the economy and everyday life, projecting the image of a gradually unifying society.
The coronavirus outbreak has blown up that facade.
Staff members at prestigious Union Hospital in Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak, have joined others around China in begging online for medical supplies. Videos show patients in Wuhan beseeching medical staff for treatment. Residents of Wuhan and its province, Hubei, are being chased off planes and ousted from hotels and villages.
Online critics are comparing current leaders unfavorably with past ones, even though the older generation had its own tarnished record on responding to emergencies. Some people have urged local party officials to kill themselves.
As cracks show in China’ s veneer of stability, even some with ties to the party leadership are calling for those in power to shine light on divisions rather than papering them over. The crisis has shown that China remains riddled with vulnerabilities that no amount of censorship or strong-arming can hide.
“ The local government’ s tolerance level of different online voices is way too low, ” wrote Hu Xijin, the editor of the Global Times newspaper, a nationalist, party-controlled outlet that fiercely defends Beijing from its critics, in a social media post.
Government agencies have weakened the checks-and-balances function of the Chinese news media, Mr. Hu wrote, citing the example of eight early whistle-blowers who were summoned for talks by the Wuhan police.
The coronavirus outbreak has already killed over 100 people and infected more than 4,000 in China, mostly in Wuhan and elsewhere in Hubei. For online critics of the government’ s responses, which at times have been slow or seemingly random, the crisis has prompted a rethinking of the grand trade-off with the party, in which the people have surrendered individual rights for the promise of stability and prosperity.
“ The current system looks so vibrant, yet it’ s shattered completely by a governance crisis, ” one user wrote on the social media site Weibo.
“ We gave up our rights in exchange for protection, ” the user wrote. “ But what kind of protection is it? Where will our long-lasting political apathy lead us? ” | business |
Man in Germany contracts coronavirus in one of first cases of transmission outside China | Germany has declared its first confirmed case of the coronavirus after a 33-year-old man contracted it from a colleague visiting his workplace from Shanghai, in one of the first cases of person-to-person transmission outside China.
The case raises concerns about the spread of the flu-like virus that broke out in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year and has killed 106 people and infected more than 2,800 people.
It spreads in droplets from coughs and sneezes and has an incubation period of 1-14 days.
Bavaria’ s health ministry said late on Monday that a man in the southern German state was suffering from the virus and was in “ good condition ” while isolated under medical observation.
German car parts supplier Webasto on Tuesday said an employee at its headquarters in Stockdorf, Bavaria, had become infected following the visit of an employee from China.
A day earlier it said an employee from Shanghai tested positive for the virus upon returning to China.
Confirmation of any sustained human-to-human spread of the virus outside of China, as well as any documented deaths, would bolster the case for reconvening the World Health Organization’ s Emergency Committee to consider again whether to declare a public health emergency of international concern.
The independent panel last week twice declined to declare an international emergency.
Outside of China there have now been 45 confirmed cases in 13 countries, with no deaths so far, the WHO’ s spokesman Christian Lindmeier told a briefing in Geneva on Tuesday.
The WHO said a case in Vietnam involved human-to-human transmission outside China and a Japanese official has said there was a suspected case of human-to-human transmission there too.
Andreas Zapf, president of Bavaria’ s office for health and food safety, said on Tuesday the person infected was 33 years old, lived in the district of Landsberg about 50 kilometers ( 31 miles) west of Munich and had come into contact with a Chinese woman on Jan 21.
Zapf said the Chinese woman was from Shanghai but her parents, who are from the Wuhan region, had visited her a few days earlier.
He added that she had arrived in Germany on Jan. 19, appearing not to have any symptoms, but began to feel ill on her flight home on Jan. 23. She sought medical treatment after landing and tested positive for the coronavirus.
When that information was relayed back to the German company, a male employee said he felt like he had flu over the weekend and was on Monday advised to get medical treatment.
The head doctor at the clinic where the man is being treated told a news conference the patient was awake and responsive and he did not think the man’ s life was at risk.
Martin Hoch, the head of an infectiology taskforce, said the man had been in close contact with at least 40 colleagues and family members, adding that number could rise.
Bavaria’ s health ministry said people who had been in contact with the man had been informed of possible symptoms, hygiene measures and transmission channels.
Health Minister Jens Spahn said the risk to people’ s health in Germany from the coronavirus remained low. | business |
Three suspected cases of coronavirus reported in Delhi — Quartz India | Three suspected cases of the coronavirus were reported in the Indian capital today ( Jan. 28).
The patients had returned from China recently and were admitted to the Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital in New Delhi with respiratory symptoms similar to those of the deadly disease currently gripping the world.
“ There are three patients under observation. The virus hasn’ t been confirmed yet but they are showing similar symptoms, ” a spokesperson for the chief medical officer of the hospital told Quartz.
While no positive cases have been detected in India so far, over 100 people have been kept under observation in the states of Kerala and Maharashtra since Monday ( Jan. 27).
Globally, the death toll due to the virus has touched 106. Originating in a seafood market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the virus causes pneumonia-like symptoms reminiscent of other animal-borne diseases like severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS) and MERS ( middle eastern respiratory syndrome).
The world over, evacuations and quarantines have been initiated to contain the virus as scientists scramble to understand it and its severity. Chinese officials have also placed a full lockdown on Wuhan, isolating its 11 million residents from the rest of the world. | tech |
AHF Urges WHO to Immediately Declare Novel Coronavirus an International Health Emergency | LOS ANGELES -- ( BUSINESS WIRE) -- With the deadly novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) originating in China and spreading to fifteen other countries, AIDS Healthcare Foundation ( AHF) urges the World Health Organization ( WHO) to immediately declare the virus a public health emergency of international concern ( PHEIC).
“ It is absurd that WHO does not consider the new coronavirus an international threat, ” said AHF President Michael Weinstein. “ With the criticism WHO has faced before in dealing with Ebola, it’ s clearly better to be safe than sorry. The world is at risk and once again this is a reminder that we desperately need a global convention on public health to be better prepared for deadly outbreaks. We urge WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to not waste time and immediately declare the coronavirus a PHEIC. ”
Since the WHO emergency committee met on January 22 and 23—when it decided it would not declare the 2019-nCoV a global public health emergency—the number of those infected has jumped from 557 to nearly 3,000, with 16 countries total reporting cases. Chinese authorities also reported new data that showed increases in total cases, suspected cases, affected provinces and the mortality rate ( 4%), according to WHO.
The 2019-nCoV has so far been responsible for 81 deaths and meets the conditions for a PHEIC to be declared, as it is a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.
“ In addition to an immediate emergency declaration, we call on the UN Security Council to be convened to act on this crisis, as it should in response to any major outbreak, ” added Weinstein. ” AHF operates in 43 countries, including in China and seven others that have seen infected patients – we know firsthand what happens when infectious disease outbreaks devastate entire communities. All options should be considered to contain the outbreak and help those who have been impacted. ”
The cause of the 2019-nCoV has not yet been established, but many patients were reportedly linked to a large seafood and animal market in Wuhan, China, suggesting the virus likely emerged from an animal source and is now spreading person-to-person.
For more information, please contact Ged Kenslea at gedk @ aidshealth.org or ( 323) 791-5526
About AIDS Healthcare Foundation ( AHF) | general |
Market Selloff May Be Brewing, But How Deep Depends on Who You Ask | Yesterday's trading day wasn't exactly a big winner for investors. It was regarded as the biggest selloff seen since October, driven by a combination of concerns including issues around the ongoing coronavirus emergence. Yet this may just be the beginning, as market strategists are analyzing the market and suggesting more selloff could be coming, and even bigger than before. Just how much of a selloff is afoot, though, seems largely depending on who's being asked.
A Disaster, a Catastrophe, or Something Else Altogether
Merrill and Bank of America ( NYSE: BAC) Private Bank head of CIO market strategy Joseph Quinlan seems to be espousing a growing consensus view: we just plain don't know enough about the market at hand to determine just what kind of selloff is in store. Quinlan is among a hefty population of analysts and strategists who aren't expecting a huge selloff, but rather a more sedate one.
Some analysts are looking for a selloff around 5%, while others are looking for a 10% drop to follow. Others still are expecting both more and less than this range.
The sheer amount of variables involved in recent days is causing the biggest problem for those like Quinlan. The coronavirus is easily one of the biggest such issues, but the lack of overall data emerging about it is playing hob with forecasts. We know, for example, that the Chinese government has been attacking the spread of the coronavirus in ways that might even seem draconian—at last report, it had locked down 13 separate cities with a total population of over 33 million people—but has the move been sufficient, and sufficiently timely, to matter?
document.write ( ' < a style= '' text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal; color: # 696969; '' target= '' blank '' rel= '' nofollow '' href= '' https: //www.ame ' + 'ricanconsumernews.net/scripts/click.aspx? NativeDisplayAdID=523 & ImpressionID=0 & UserID=0 & Placement=PlaceOnArticlePage '' > '); Take a look at this government document... because if you think this current crisis will be over soon, this will surprise you. See how you can protect yourself and why the government is planning for the worst... an 18-month crisis.
Such questions plague forecasters, and since these aren't the only such questions on hand, the amounts of the selloff are putting up an expansive range.
So Many Questions, So Few Answers
Naturally, the coronavirus and its impact on markets—from retail to pharmaceuticals—are a big weight on forecasts. The fallout of actions taken in response will also play a part. Yet this outbreak, as big as it may be, is just part of what's driving forecasting in the short term.
Those who believe that any selloff will be a limited sort of affair are pointing at Federal Reserve policies, which have been very helpful to markets lately. An October rate cut seems to be holding, and the purchase of Treasury bills to expand the balance sheet has given the markets extra liquidity to work with. That's leading some to believe any selloff will be under five percent, which isn't exactly much of a selloff to begin with given the gains the market has seen in the last three years.
There's also a growing amount of concern around the upcoming US presidential election—and yes, that really is just about nine months away—and the potential for change in the government. Four more years of Trump, of course, would have a fairly predictable outcome. Yet four years, maybe even eight, of one of the Democrats may represent a destabilizing element that would shake the market to the ground. With Bernie Sanders doing well in Iowa, the notion of a man with what might be described as “ market-unfriendly ” policies and leanings in the Presidency may represent a serious selloff as investors take what they can get.
It's Probably Coming, but What It Will Be When It Gets Here? Who Knows?
A selloff is pretty much inevitable, at some point. Whether it's just profit-taking or genuine concern about the overall trajectory of the market—or some combination of factors all at the same time— investors will be selling shares at some point here, and in pretty substantial quantities. If there's one thing even an elementary market investor knows, it's that stock prices do not go up forever. A recession will have to hit eventually, and that's going to drive changes in investing as well. The market has done amazing things in terms of keeping away recessions and selloffs and most every breed of a downturn, but that can't go on indefinitely. So for right now, enjoy the very substantial gains we 've seen so far, and consider taking a hedge position or two. It never hurts to have a plan B, and a market working this high up may take quite a fall.
10 Best Tech Stocks to Buy After the Market’ s Historic Sell-Off
Technology stocks are among the most volatile in the market. The allure of big gains comes with the risk of sharp downturns. When the market is trending upwards, these stocks have a tendency to lead the way. Conversely, when the market is selling off, tech stocks post some of the largest losses. And in the coronavirus crash tech stocks took their usual beating. But an interesting dynamic is happening. As stocks are trying to stage a comeback, many tech stocks are being left behind. Many of the leading tech stocks trade on the NASDAQ exchange. However, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA) and S & P 500 posted gains on March 25, the NASDAQ stayed down. And that’ s an opportunity for investors who know where to look. We’ ve put together this presentation to give you ten technology stocks that look to be solid bets no matter which way the market moves. Some of the stocks you’ ll see are companies that have a business model that is perfectly suited for today’ s social distancing environment.
View the `` 10 Best Tech Stocks to Buy After the Market’ s Historic Sell-Off ''.
Complete the form below to receive the latest headlines and analysts ' recommendations for your stocks with our free daily email newsletter: | business |
Barclays Sees Lower Oil Prices In 2020 As Coronavirus Spreads | A slump in oil demand caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus in China could pressure oil prices by $ 2 per barrel Barclays analysts said, revising its full-year Brent crude forecast to $ 62 a barrel and its West Texas Intermediate forecast to $ 57 a barrel. & ldquo; If air passenger traffic in China declined by half in first quarter of 2020, it would likely lead to a 300,000 barrels per day year on year decline in jet-kerosene demand from China, & rdquo; & nbsp; the analysts said, as quoted by Reuters. They added that they expected OPEC to step in and cut production deeper to ensure the balance of the oil market. The downward revision from Barclays comes just a week after the bank said that it expects global crude demand growth to pick up in 2020 thanks to an improving global economic outlook. Meanwhile, however, one OPEC member is involuntarily cutting production. Libya & rsquo; s National Oil Corporation said earlier this week production had slumped by more than two-thirds over the last week, from over 1.2 million bpd to about 300,000 bpd. The drop followed the blockade of oil export terminals and the consequent shutdown of several oil fields. The situation could deteriorate further, NOC & rsquo; s chairman Mustafa Sanalla said, with production falling to as little as 72,000 bpd. It seems, however, that traders have yet to read the news from Libya at the time of writing Brent crude and WTI were both trading lower than yesterday, with Brent at $ 58.48 a barrel and WTI at $ 53.17 a barrel, extending a six-day losing streak. In case the market already knows the news from Libya, then the excess supply situation could be worse than some may have believed or the coronavirus developments are outweighing any concern about tightening supply because of Libya. In fact, according to Barclays, the coronavirus outbreak is likely to cause less economic problems than the SARS outbreak in 2003 because of its lower lethality and because of the Chinese authorities & rsquo; measures to contain the spread of the disease.By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com | business |
What It’ s Like to Try to Get Treatment for the Coronavirus in China | -=-=-=-
On the morning of January 18th, a seventy-nine-year-old resident of the central Chinese city of Wuhan, whom I’ ll call Li, eagerly awaited the arrival of his daughter and her family, who were travelling from Shanghai to join him for the most important holiday on the Chinese calendar: the Lunar New Year. The festivities revolve around family meals, and, that afternoon, according to * Phoenix Weekly *, a political and cultural weekly magazine based in Hong Kong, Li rode his bicycle to the store to buy groceries. Halfway there, he began to feel weak, and fell off his bike. He was taken to a district clinic, where, owing to a lack of medical equipment—only X-ray machines were available—it was recommended that he go to a larger hospital. Around 5 * P.M. * {:.small }, he arrived with his daughter at the Wuhan Central hospital, where he waited five hours to see a doctor, who told him that he needed a CT scan of his lungs, for which there was a four-hour wait. Li went home, and, when he returned later, he was told to wait to see someone in the pulmonology department, where he finally got a scan. A pulmonologist said that the scan was worrying and told him to go to the emergency room, but there was a six-hour wait there, so Li went home again. The next day, a report showed an infection in sixty per cent of his lungs. Doctors suspected that he had contracted the new coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, the first cases of which had been reportedly identified in December, but they could not perform the tests to confirm it. The hospital was not an infectious-disease hospital, and, furthermore, Li’ s family was told, staff members didn’ t have the authority to make diagnoses themselves; they had to report cases to superiors and seek further consultation. Nor were there any quarantine rooms available.
Thus, according to * Phoenix Weekly *, began an ordeal, during which Li was bounced from one medical institution to another without being given a diagnosis or a bed. One night, when his fever had climbed and he had trouble breathing, Li’ s daughter called the equivalent of 911—in China, the number is 120—for an ambulance. The dispatcher told her that, without confirmation of a diagnosis from a receiving hospital, he could not help her. Finally, an ambulance was sent, but Li was turned away from a couple of hospitals, which were already full. One told him that he should go back to Wuhan Central and insist on being admitted there, or get a transfer notice from it. Finally, at the fourth hospital the family tried, Li’ s daughter and her husband, despondent and frustrated, started shouting in the E.R. waiting room. “ If you don’ t take my father, ” she said, “ he will die. ” The family camped out in the waiting room, along with a crowd of other people.
Li’ s story is not unique. * Phoenix Weekly * also reported on a thirty-six-year-old Wuhan resident who said that he had been refused by six hospitals in two weeks while battling symptoms of the coronavirus. Discussions of the virus have been censored on the Internet, but in recent days many people have posted similar accounts.
Early cases of the virus were thought to have originated in a wholesale seafood market in Wuhan, a city of more than eleven million people, where live animals such as dogs, cats, rats, hedgehogs, and marmots are also sold. It is closely related to coronaviruses found in horseshoe bats, and health officials thought it may have migrated to humans from one of the species in the market. The coronavirus, which gets its name from crown-like spikes on its surface, is a type of common virus that causes pneumonia. Those who contract this strain report fever, coughing, and difficulty breathing. & nbsp; Its incubation period is thought to be between one and fourteen days, and it can be passed by a sneeze or a cough before symptoms appear. As of Tuesday, it had claimed more than a hundred lives in China, and more than forty-five hundred cases had been confirmed across the country. The virus has also found its way to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Nepal, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United States, where there are five documented cases. So far, there have been no deaths outside of China.
The Wuhan coronavirus belongs to the same family as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or * SARS * {:.small }, which broke out in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, in November, 2002, and spread, through infected travellers, to twenty-six countries, killing almost eight hundred people around the world. It was finally contained in the summer of 2003, by isolating suspected carriers around the world and breaking the path of person-to-person transmission. * SARS * {:.small } created a global panic and caused an estimated forty billion dollars in losses to the global economy, owing to sharp drops in travel and consumer spending. China concealed the epidemic for several months. ( Scientists in North America were only able to sequence the genome that caused the virus that April, following intense pressure from the international community for China to share information about the virus.) Its severity was a source of immense embarrassment for Beijing; at a moment when it was attempting to prove its economic prowess to the world, its mismanagement of a public-health emergency called into question the health of its political leadership.
Last week, when President Xi Jinping & nbsp; urged an “ all-out effort ” to contain the “ grave situation ” of the coronavirus, and to disseminate information about it in a timely fashion, he was almost certainly thinking about the comparisons that would be made between this epidemic and * SARS * {:.small }. In many respects, Beijing has learned from that experience. The World Health Organization has credited Chinese officials with identifying and sharing the genome sequencing of the virus just days after the illness was first reported. The government leaped into action with a series of bold and sometimes unnerving experimental measures. Travel in and out of Wuhan and nearby cities was banned. The largest lockdown in modern public-health history has been put into effect, which, essentially, has isolated fifteen cities in central China, with a combined population of more than fifty-seven million people. All tour groups and the sale of flight and hotel packages for Chinese citizens headed overseas have been suspended. The government plans to erect within weeks two emergency hospital facilities to accommodate thousands of patients. Meanwhile, Beijing has sent four hundred and fifty military medical staff to Wuhan to assist exhausted doctors and nurses in the effort.
An ability to marshal resources and initiate massive undertakings has often been viewed as one of the few advantages of an authoritarian regime. But it is part and parcel of a government that concentrates power so formidably at the top that regional officials tend to become more political lackeys than leaders attuned to the changing needs of their constituents. Since Xi abolished term limits on the Presidency, and began waging an aggressive war on dissent, he has accelerated the top-down approach to governance, maintaining that a diversity of opinion creates chaos, and that only his firm, steady hand will guide the country through peace and prosperity.
But this imperious style of rule deters lower-level bureaucrats from playing decisive roles that can make a meaningful difference in a fast-moving crisis. On January 9th, the World Health Organization issued a report on the virus. But, early that month, rather than raise public awareness about the virus, the Wuhan authorities detained eight people whom they alleged had spread rumors about the virus. For days afterward, local officials insisted there was a low probability of human-to-human transmission, a claim that proved to be false. Dali Yang, a China expert at the University of Chicago, wrote that “ the failure to act promptly after the coronavirus was identified on January 9th helped make the number of infected swell. ” Any government faced with a serious epidemic might seek to control the flow of information for the sake of averting panic. But, in a repressive regime, inaction can become the local default position. As Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington, D.C., notes, “ Central-local relations in the Xi era have seen a severe diminishment of local-level autonomy, which has led to municipal and village officials waiting for clear signals from above before they take action. ”
From a bureaucratic perspective, such reluctance makes a certain kind of sense. In this situation, to diagnose a case of 2019-nCoV would mean alerting one’ s superiors, arranging a medical quarantine in hospitals that are already overwhelmed, and being held accountable for a patient with a deadly, unfamiliar virus. It is far simpler to give a more general diagnosis, such as “ viral pneumonia, ” which is, in fact, the illness listed on the charts of many patients since the epidemic began. Under normal circumstances, the centralized system perpetuates a cycle of inefficiency and frustration. In an emergent global-health crisis, however, it could cost lives.
Li’ s current status is not known. His daughter and her family members had colds, according to the * Phoenix Weekly *; she didn’ t know whether they had caught any infections at the hospital. Meanwhile, the situation has continued to worsen. On Monday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised American citizens to avoid nonessential travel to China. Chinese financial markets are closed, but the stock market saw its largest decline since last year.
Public-health crises are the unbidden stress tests of governance. On Monday, when the mayor of Wuhan, Zhou Xianwang, and the secretary of the Wuhan Communist Party, Ma Guoqiang, offered to resign amid “ public indignation ” over their response to the outbreak, Mayor Zhou sounded almost relieved. “ Comrade Ma Guoqiang and I are willing to accept responsibility. If in the end you say someone has to be held accountable, you say the masses have opinions, then we’ re willing to appease the world by resigning, ” he said, in an interview with state television. So far, no one has leaped at the opportunity to take over their jobs.
* * *
# # A Guide to the Coronavirus
How much of the world is [ likely to be quarantined ] ( https: //www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-much-of-the-world-will-be-quarantined-by-the-coronavirus)?
Donald Trump in [ the time of coronavirus ] ( https: //www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/trump-in-the-time-of-the-coronavirus).
The coronavirus is [ likely to spread for months, if not more than a year ] ( https: //www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-long-will-it-take-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine), before a vaccine could be widely available.
We are all [ irrational panic shoppers ] ( https: //www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-gastronomy/we-are-all-irrational-panic-shoppers).
The strange terror of [ watching the coronavirus take Rome ] ( https: //www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-strange-terror-of-watching-coronavirus-take-rome).
How pandemics [ change history ] ( https: //www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-pandemics-change-history). | general |
Lesson of the Day: ‘ What Is the Coronavirus? Symptoms, Treatment and Risks’ | Find all our Lessons of the Day here.
Featured Article: “ What Is the Coronavirus? Symptoms, Treatment and Risks ” by Roni Caryn Rabin.
Have you heard anything about the coronavirus? Are people in your school or community concerned about contracting it?
The coronavirus is a respiratory virus named for the spikes that protrude from its membrane, which resemble the sun’ s corona. The outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in a live seafood, poultry and wild animal market, but it has now appeared in 11 other countries, including the United States. According to Chinese health authorities, the coronavirus has killed at least 56 people and sickened at least 2,000.
In this lesson, students will learn more about the virus and how people are reacting to it, both in Asia and in the United States.
In the article, “ China’ s Battle With a Deadly Coronavirus, in Photos, ” photographers document the response to the outbreak in China. Look closely at the photograph below and answer the following questions from our partners at Visual Thinking Strategies:
What is going on in this picture?
What do you see that makes you say that?
Now, using those same close observation skills, look through all of the photographs in the article. What observations can you make and what conclusions can you draw?
What story does the series of photographs tell?
Are you able to get a sense of how the virus is transmitted? What do you notice people doing to contain the virus?
Did you notice that the outbreak happened at the time of the Lunar New Year? What do you notice about how the outbreak affected celebrations?
What other questions do you still have?
As you read the featured article, keep these images in mind and see what more information you are able to gather.
Read the article, then answer the following questions:
1. In your own words, why has there been so much panic and fear in response to the coronavirus?
2. Why hasn’ t the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency? How did some of the physicians quoted in the article explain and support the W.H.O.’ s decision? ( On Jan. 30, the W.H.O. declared a Global Health Emergency. What led them to make that decision?)
3. How were scientists able to identify how the virus is transmitted? What conclusions have the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention been able to reach through its observation and study?
4. How is the coronavirus similar and different from other epidemics like SARS and MERS? How does it compare with annual influenza outbreaks? What do these comparisons tell us about how dangerous this new virus is?
5. How did the outbreak initially happen, and why has it been so difficult to contain?
6. What can people do to protect themselves? What role are United States health officials taking to prevent an outbreak?
You started this lesson by looking at photographs to understand the epidemic. Now that you have read more information about what is happening, take some time to analyze one or two graphs or maps from this article and answer the following questions from our What’ s Going On in This Graph? feature:
What do you notice? If you make a claim, tell us what you noticed that supports your claim.
What do you wonder? What are you curious about that comes from what you noticed in the graph?
What’ s going on in this graph? Write a catchy headline that captures the graph’ s main idea. | business |
The Dow Is Up 249 Points as Stocks Snap Back on Earnings Strength | Bouncing Back. The three major U.S. stock market indexes rebounded solidly after Monday’ s losses, sparked by investor fears about the spread of the coronavirus that originated in China. Earnings helped drive gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 249 points, or 0.9%. The S & P 500 gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.5%.
Xerox Holdings ( ticker: XRX) rose 5.3% after the copier company reported stronger-than-expected earnings per share.
PulteGroup ( PHM) was up 4.9% after the home builder’ s earnings and revenue topped Wall Street expectations.
Whirlpool ( WHR) gained 4.4% after the appliance-maker showed it was able to raise prices to consumers as materials cost increases slowed.
3M ( MMM) dropped 5.5% after the company said it would lay off 1,500 workers and disclosed that it had received a federal grand jury subpoena related to discharges at an Alabama plant.
Pfizer ( PFE) was down 4.2% after the drugmaker posted falling sales that met analysts’ estimates. | business |
Coronavirus Concerns Keep European Stocks Down | European stocks were trading around seven-week lows on Tuesday, as concerns about the spreading coronavirus continue to rattle markets.
After ending Monday with the biggest one-day drop in nearly four months, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.01% to 414.03.
U.S. stock futures pointed to opening gains, however.
The death toll in China from the virus, which causes severe acute respiratory infection, stood at least 106 people, authorities said on Tuesday. There have been more than 4,500 outbreaks in the world’ s second-largest economy.
Companies on the decline included luxury-goods maker Burberry, which fell 3.6%. Luxury-goods producers that rely on Asian sales to drive growth have struggled since the news of the coronavirus outbreak.
Of stocks in the spotlight, SAP shares fell 2.3% as better-than-forecast earnings by the German software company were offset by cautious guidance. | business |
3M Stock Slumps After Earnings. Here’ s Why. | The industrial conglomerate 3M had dual disappointments for investors on Tuesday morning. Earnings guidance fell short of Wall Street expectations and the company raised concern over potential environmental liabilities.
Fourth-quarter profits, roughly, matched company expectations. The company reported $ 2.15 in per share earnings, net of restructuring charges, while analysts were looking for $ 2.11.
The company’ s earnings guidance, however, was a greater concern for investors. 3M ( ticker: MMM) expects to earn $ 9.52 a share in 2020, while Wall Street’ s financial models were pointing to a result of $ 9.59.
A few pennies doesn’ t seem like a lot, but 3M investors have had a rough ride recently. Management cut earnings guidance a couple of times in 2019, sending shares lower. The stock is down about 9% over the past year, trailing far behind comparable gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500.
“ Our team executed well in the fourth quarter, ” said CEO Mike Roman in the company’ s news release. “ While we continued to manage challenges in certain key end markets, we generated solid underlying margins and robust free cash flow. ”
Challenges manifested themselves in a couple of divisions. During the fourth quarter, sales declined 4.8% in the company’ s safety and industrial division and 6.2% percent in transportation and electronics. Sales grew at the health care segment. Growth was aided by acquisitions.
The weakness in sales is no surprise. Industrial activity has been sluggish in the U.S. and China for the past year. Chinese auto sales fell about 8% in 2019, pressuring 3M’ s transportation and electronics unit.
Still, investors were hoping for a better business outlook. And environmental liabilities came to the fore again. 3M recorded a new charge for litigation over per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, chemicals that were manufactured in the U.S. from the 1940s through the turn of the century,
PFAS can harm people’ s health, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. States and municipalities are cleaning up sites involved in the manufacturing of the chemicals, while governments are pursuing liability suits seeking money from producers.
The company took an initial $ 235 million charge for PFAS in the first quarter of 2019. The new charge amounted to $ 214 million, or 29 cents per share.
“ 3M discovered and voluntarily informed the EPA and appropriate state authorities that discharges from our Decatur, Alabama facility may not have complied with permit requirements, ” said Roman on the company’ s conference call. “ We immediately idled the relevant processes and took steps to address these issues. ”
Investors don’ t like uncertainty. The ultimate size of any PFAS liabilities came up on 3M’ s earnings conference call. So did the coronavirus outbreak in China. 3M does a lot of business there. Analysts are concerned the virus could impact Chinese economic growth in early 2020.
It wasn’ t a great earnings report. 3M stock is down $ 8.62, or 4.9%, to $ 167.01 midday Tuesday. | business |
The Main Reason for the Stock Market’ s Decline Isn’ t the Coronavirus | This article originally appeared on MarketWatch, a sister publication of Barron’ s.
The coronavirus is getting a bum rap as the cause of the stock market’ s recent weakness.
That decline gathered steam on Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ticker: DJIA) was at one point down more than 500 points.
It’ s not that any of us should have sympathy for the virus, of course. But I don’ t want to let the real culprit get off scot-free.
That real culprit is market sentiment: Short-term stock market timers, on balance, have been extraordinarily bullish for a couple of months now. Even a few days of such excessive bullishness would normally lead to market weakness, much less a few months of such exuberance. So conditions were ripe for a pullback.
If it weren’ t the coronavirus, in other words, something else would have been the straw breaking the camel’ s back.
Consider the average recommended stock-market exposure level among the several dozen short-term stock market timers I monitor on a daily basis. ( This average exposure level is what is reflected in the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) As you can see from the chart above, the HSNSI since October of last year has spent more days above the 90th percentile of past daily readings than below.
In fact, there has been no other three-month period since I started compiling the data in 2000 during which the average HSNSI level has been as high as it has been since October.
So, unless the role human psychology plays in the stock market has suddenly changed, a correction was overdue.
How big of a correction? Contrarians’ answer is that it depends on how traders react. It would be a good sign if they rush to the sidelines and then quickly jump onto the bearish bandwagon. In contrast, it would be a bad sign if they stubbornly hold onto their bullishness in the wake of the decline. In that case, contrarians would expect that an even deeper correction would be necessary to rebuild the Wall of Worry that would support a new leg upwards.
The usual qualifications apply, however. Most importantly, there are no guarantees. For example, the stock market in recent weeks continued higher even though market sentiment was unfavorable—as I had already pointed out in a late-November column. Furthermore, even if contrarian analysis turn out to be right in coming weeks, its forecasts apply only to the very short term, telling us little if anything about the market’ s intermediate and longer-term trends.
The bottom line: You shouldn’ t have been surprised by the stock market’ s current weakness. On the contrary, had you been closely following market sentiment, you would have been expecting it—even before you had ever heard of the coronavirus. | business |
Coronavirus, Lunar New Year, and Boeing 737 MAX Woes Mean Trouble for Industrial Stocks | Industrial stocks are facing a unique situation: Way fewer people are working.
The Boeing ( ticker: BA) 737 MAX production halt, plant shutdowns in Asia due to the Lunar New Year, and the coronavirus outbreak are shuttering factories around the globe. And the strange confluence is making it hard for industrial companies to provide a meaningful 2020 outlook.
Chinese businesses typically shut down around the Lunar New Year. But Chinese officials are extending the 2020 holiday due to the newly identified virus. Many industrial parks are staying shut longer, by as much as a week. That means less production in China—the second-largest economy in the world and the largest new vehicle market globally. China has the ability to affect full-year earnings performance for the U.S. industrial sector.
So U.S. industrials are keeping a close eye on how the coronavirus situation continues to develop. The Wuhan coronavirus has infected about 2,700 people world-wide with about 80 deaths, though its 3% mortality rate is lower than that of SARS of Ebola.
“ Before we got to the last couple of weeks with the coronavirus really becoming the focus, we were looking at a sluggish start to China in first quarter really based on automotive, ” said 3M ( MMM) CEO Mike Roman on the company’ s Tuesday earnings conference call. New car sales fell about 8% in China year over year in 2019, though production rates improved in the fourth quarter. The virus could threaten those signs of recovery. “ Now coronavirus, it’ s kind of changing things as we go, ” Roman added.
Every weekday evening we highlight the consequential market news of the day and explain what's likely to matter tomorrow.
3M, of course, makes surgical masks, and that business is benefiting. But Roman noted that Chinese businesses are extending shutdowns. About 30% of 3M sales come from the Asia Pacific region. “ So we’ re really watching day to day what that’ s going to mean for our outlook for China. ”
Investors didn’ t take the update well. 3M shares dropped 5.7% on Tuesday. The S & P 500 rose 1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.7% higher.
United Technologies CEO Greg Hayes is cautiously optimistic, for now. Hayes runs a giant aerospace supplier, selling parts to Boeing and Airbus ( AIR. France), among others.
“ We feel very good about our ability to deliver in 2020, ” said Hayes on his company’ s earnings conference call. “ That said, we’ re also keeping our eye on the developing coronavirus situation, any impacts that could have to all of our businesses. ”
Airlines stocks are the ones typically hit hardest when virus outbreaks occur. The market has experienced that dynamic before with past SARS and Ebola episodes. But Wall Street is starting to wonder if this time is different, with Boeing’ s troubles in the mix.
“ Granted we are very early into the current coronavirus outbreak, but the risk to global air travel and the aerospace sector is substantial, ” wrote Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert in a Tuesday research report. He notes that the average outbreak impact is a 13% decline in global traffic year over year, according to the International Air Travel Association, which reports on global air travel demand. That amounts to a few terrible months for air travel.
Traffic is paramount to the aerospace industry: More people on planes is what drives the demand for new jet airliners. Herbert isn’ t making a bold call yet about 2020 aerospace demand. But he is more cautious this time because of the virus and the MAX.
The troubled Boeing 737 MAX jet has been grounded world-wide since mid-March following two deadly crashes within a five-month span. Boeing halted MAX production completely in January, leaving its suppliers—such as United Tech—with a sales gap for an unknown period.
“ The MAX sales headwind is 3 percentage points [ of growth ], ” United Tech CFO Neil Mitchell told Barron’ s. That works out to more than $ 700 million annually in lost revenue. Materials supplier Arconic ( ARNC) said MAX production declines represent a $ 400 million sales headwind for 2020. Spirit AeroSystems ( SPR) —a key Boeing supplier—recently laid off 2,800 workers.
“ The difficult decision... is a necessary step given the uncertainty related to both the timing for resuming 737 MAX production and the overall production levels that can be expected following the production suspension, ” said Spirit CEO Tom Gentile in the company’ s news release.
The question for investors is will industrial stocks get a pass on weak outlooks? It’ s too early to tell. But if the virus spreads and Boeing MAX production remains down, industrial stocks might suffer.
Industrials have been popular on Wall Street recently. Stifel strategist Barry Bannister, for instance, recommended cyclical stocks in late 2019, believing they could ride on a wave of improving data.
By November, around the time Bannister turned positive on the sector, manufacturing data had been declining for about 15 months. That's the length of a typical manufacturing correction, and Wall Street often tries to call the bottom in data. The best time to invest in a cyclical sector can be when things are looking less bad, but before growth is robust.
Bannister’ s call looked prescient based on history. But coronavirus and Boeing could interfere with a manufacturing recovery and muddle data, leaving both investors and management uncertain. | business |
Apple Supply Chain Seen With Limited Exposure To Areas With Coronavirus | Throughout 2019, concerns about the U.S. trade dispute with China hung over Apple shares, and for good reason—the company in the latest quarter generated close to a fifth of its global revenues from “ Greater China, ” which includes the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Now, Apple ( ticker: AAPL) faces the perception of a new and unexpected China issue: coronavirus.
This morning, the Nikkei Asian Review reported that Apple’ s plans to boost iPhone production by 10% in the first half of 2020 could be affected by the outbreak, which has killed more than 100 people in China and infected at least 4,500 others.
On Monday, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a research note that about 381 of the 775 manufacturing and supply locations in Apple’ s global supply chain are in China. Of that total, though, only two sites are in Wuhan, the city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak. Another 69 sites are based in Suzhou, which has not been locked down like Wuhan. However, businesses in Suzhou have extended their current Lunar New Year holiday shutdown by a week until February 8.
The Evercore analyst said so far, at least, the impact from a supply perspective seems minimal. He added that the impact on the demand side remains to be seen.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said that he thinks shopping headed into the Lunar New Year likely drove strong sales for Apple products in December and January. He sees modest risk that up to 1 million iPhone units could be shifted into the June quarter, under 3% of total annual China iPhone sales. “ While the coronavirus outbreak is a sad situation and scary headline for investors, for the stock we believe the fundamental impact from this issue to Apple’ s top-line is negligible, ” he wrote.
Late Monday, an Apple spokesperson declined to comment about the company’ s supply chain exposure to the coronavirus issue.
Apple shares on Monday were up 2% to $ 315.41. The S & P 500 was up about 1%. | business |
5 Niche Energy ETFs You’ ve ( Probably) Never Heard Of | Since their inception nearly three decades ago, exchange-traded funds, aka ETFs, have become an integral part of the average investor & rsquo; s portfolio thanks to some key qualities that include diversification, easy trading, and in most cases, costs that come in lower than mutual funds. & nbsp; Now, they & rsquo; re evolving even further. & nbsp; Some money managers have started offering ETFs as tools for specialization rather than instruments designed for diversification by carving up the stock market into ever thinner slices for investors eager to find the next big thing. & nbsp; As such, ETFs have evolved from broad indexes such as the SPDR S & amp; P 500 ETF NYSEARCASPY to sector-specific ETFs covering energy, technology, and healthcare and even into niches-within-niches in leading-edge industries such as cybersecurity, robotics, and video gaming. While thematic funds are not recommended for all retail investors, interest in niche ETFs in the energy sector has been growing as investors search for opportunities outside mainstream investing. & nbsp; Here are five energy ETFs that offer a slightly different slant to energy investing than more popular ETFs such as the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSEARCAXLE. 1 Pacer American Energy Independence ETF USAI & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; AUM $ 11.4M & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Expense Ratio 0.75% & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; 12-Month Returns -3.77% If you want to bet big on the notion that the United States is on the cusp of becoming an energy independent nation, a status it could achieve in the current year, then this one is for you. & nbsp; The Pacer American Energy Independence ETF NYSEARCAUSAI is a strategy-driven ETF that offers investors exposure to U.S. and Canadian oil and gas companies that generate the majority of their cash flows from midstream energy infrastructure activities. & nbsp; The USAI ETF provides investors with an opportunity in energy independence without incurring all of the risks involved in upstream or downstream investing. Related Coronavirus Sends Panic Through Oil Markets USAI invests in 33 energy equities, with 80% of its funds in US and Canadian midstream companies and 20% in US MLPs and general partners of MLPs. The portfolio rebalances quarterly. 2 Gas Exploration Bull 3X Shares GUSH & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; AUM $ 140.5M & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Expense Ratio 1.17% & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; 12-Month Returns -82.35% Gas prices have been flirting with multi-year lows, and it comes as no surprise that ETFs tracking the commodity are getting hammered. More so for leveraged ETFs such as Gas Exploration Bull 3X Shares NYSEARCAGUSH, which seeks to provide daily investment results of 300% of the performance of the S & amp; P Oil & amp; Gas Exploration & amp; Production Select Industry Index. & nbsp; This fund creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in options on securities and indices as well as swap agreements and forward contracts. & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; The jury is still out regarding when a natural gas rebound could arrive with prices currently hovering around sub- $ 2/MMBtu levels. However, GUSH could magnify results if and when energy prices stage a nice recovery, with timing being key here. 3 Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 3X Shares GASX & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; AUM $ 23.4M & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Expense Ratio 1.09% & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; 12-Month Returns 129.80% Bear, inverse, and clean energy ETFs seem to be the only energy ETFs getting some joy in this market, and GASX is no exception. & nbsp; For investors who prefer to go with the flow, Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 3X Shares NYSEARCAGASX could be a great investment. GASX seeks to provide daily investment results, net of expenses, of 300% of the inverse of the daily performance of the ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index. & nbsp; GASX is designed to take advantage of both event-driven news as well as long-term trends in the natural gas industry. With a juicy nearly 130% return over the past 12 months, natural gas bears have been killing it with this ETF. By the same token, they could find themselves in trouble if gas prices suddenly reverse course. 4 Van Eck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF SMOG & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; AUM $ 107.0M & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Expense Ratio 0.63% & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; 12-Month Returns 30.17% Van Eck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF NYSEARCASMOG is a clean energy fund that seeks to replicate, before fees and expenses, the yield performance of the Ardour Global IndexSM Extra Liquid. This fund invests at least 80% of its assets in low carbon energy companies, & nbsp; including small- and medium-cap companies and foreign issuers. Low carbon companies refer to energy companies primarily engaged in alternative energy, including alternative fuels, renewable energy, and related enabling technologies such as advanced batteries. Related As Gas Prices Crash, Will This Shale Giant Survive With the ESG drive in full swing, it & rsquo; s quite likely that clean energy funds such as SMOG will continue seeing a healthy flow of funds for years to come. 5 First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund GRID & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; AUM $ 32.6M & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Expense Ratio 0.70% & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; 12-Month Returns 25.39% Energy-conserving technologies such as smart grids -- the digital technology that enables two-way communication between customers and the service -- are all the rage right now as the world continues to grapple with the realities of climate change. & nbsp; The smart-grid market is projected to grow at 15.6% CAGR to hit $ 70 billion by 2027, providing ample growth runways for energy investors. First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund NASDAQGRID is a smart-grid fund that seeks to track the performance of the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index, an index made up of common stocks in the grid and electric energy infrastructure sector. & nbsp; GRID invests at least 90% of its net assets in stocks involved in electric grids, networks, electric meters and devices, energy storage and management, and companies that make the software used by the smart-grid infrastructure sector. The bottom line A newer lineup of ETFs makes investing in energy far more specialized than it ever was before. If you & rsquo; re a specific bull or a specific bear, you can find your niche on this list, whether it & rsquo; s toeing the line or highly contrarian. It & rsquo; s not just about betting on oil and gas or not anymore -- it & rsquo; s about more narrowly guessing energy & rsquo; s next move. & nbsp; By Anes Alic for Oilprice.com | business |
Starbucks’ Earnings Are Today. Here’ s What to Expect. | Worry over the coronavirus is likely to weigh heavily on Starbucks when it reports earnings after the bell Tuesday.
Wall Street analysts have been generally upbeat on Starbucks ( ticker: SBUX) in recent quarters. Sales have been growing steadily as the coffee chain has improved its mobile ordering and offered new seasonal beverages such as Irish Cream Cold Brew, launched for the year-end holidays. The company even increased sales in China despite competition from Luckin Coffee ( LK).
Starbucks shares rose in turn, climbing 36.5% in 2019 and continuing their surge into the new year.
Starbucks’ fiscal first-quarter results are expected to reflect those gains, but Wall Street will still want to know how the coronavirus outbreak will affect coming quarters. Shares fell 3% in Monday trading following reports over the weekend that Starbucks closed its stores in China’ s Hubei province in response to the virus.
“ We estimate that Starbucks, with its company operated model in China, has the greatest exposure as measured by percentage of WW system revenues and operating income, ” Guggenheim analyst Matthew DiFrisco said in a note Monday. McDonald’ s ( MCD) and Domino’ s ( DPZ) could also be negatively affected, he said.
Starbucks had more than 4,000 stores in China as of Sept. 30, representing just over a quarter of its total company-operated locations, and thought to account for roughly 10% of total sales, according to DiFrisco.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Starbucks to report earnings of $ 0.76 a share from sales of $ 7.1 billion for its fiscal first quarter. The consensus view is that sales at stores open at least a year will rise by about 4.4%
Even without the coronavirus outbreak, China would have been a key area of interest. Analysts will want to see whether comparable-store sales continued there, and will be eager to hear how receptive Chinese consumers have been to delivery and mobile ordering.
Before the coronavirus outbreak intensified, analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets were bullish on China. They noted that customers there were at least twice as likely to have a digital relationship with the brand than their U.S. counterparts. | business |
Underserved: Selling to Small Businesses Is a Huge Untapped Market |
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Etude
To sell successfully to this enormous market, develop a strategy that spans service, segmentation and scale.
Par Mikaela Boyd et Jessica Schreiber Solera
Etude
Selling to small businesses is a tall order, but it’ s well worth the effort. Small businesses comprise a huge collective market for a broad swath of providers, ranging from computer hardware and software companies to financial services firms and purveyors of industrial supplies. In the US, for instance, the 30 million businesses with fewer than 500 employees account for 48% of national employment, according to the US Small Business Administration. And in most of the 35 countries analyzed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the number of new firms created continues to recover and, in many cases, is at the highest level since the financial crisis. Moreover, small businesses can be fiercely loyal to providers that offer solutions that address their needs.
The challenge is how to sell to and serve small firms on a consistently profitable basis.
As a diverse and fragmented customer base, small businesses can be hard to find and track when they grow and evolve. Targeting gets tricky because of high rates of formation and termination, the growing number of home offices, and incomplete coverage in financial and corporate databases. Small firms often want advice and guidance from a supplier, but they’ re not large enough to warrant an account manager in person or even on the phone. They have lean staffs, with owners and teams wearing many hats as opposed to the functional expertise in larger companies.
These factors add up to a situation in which traditional incumbent providers often ignore or underinvest in small business customers.
Yet a number of insurgent companies, such as HubSpot, Shopify, Square and Kabbage, have figured out how to serve the small business market effectively. It’ s no coincidence that these insurgents are native digital companies, as social media marketing, content marketing and viral marketing all figure heavily in small business markets, and are keys to unlocking lower-cost business models. A survey by Salesforce found that 82% of business buyers want the same experience as when they buy for themselves.
Some incumbent business-to-business ( B2B) providers have adapted their operations to serve this market successfully. Here’ s what other companies can learn from the leaders.
At many banks, despite the lip service paid to support for entrepreneurs and local businesses, small and micro businesses get lost between the consumer and commercial units. For instance, they tend to be the last group to get a product refresh. In computer hardware and software markets, many suppliers rely heavily on resellers and distributors to reach small businesses. Customers might get what they need, but through an indirect route that does little to earn loyalty for the provider itself.
Micro businesses behave like consumers in some ways ( transactional purchasing, enjoyment of personal rewards and benefits) but like commercial enterprises in other respects ( demand for commercial-grade products and services). Providers that have a defined unit selling to and serving small businesses as a distinct category can muster the resources required to succeed.
American Express has long had a dedicated small business unit, attending to their needs separately from large enterprises and advocating on their behalf. To help small companies mired in the recession, American Express launched a nationwide Small Business Saturday campaign in 2010 by offering cardholders a $ 25 statement credit for shopping at small stores. The campaign proved quite successful, with an estimated $ 103 billion in spending since it began, such that American Express no longer has to offer a financial incentive.
Likewise, Dell has a dedicated small business team across marketing, merchandising and sales that includes expert advisers who provide free technology advice to all small business customers. In addition, Dell relaunched and later expanded a computing line, Vostro, with features and pricing tailored to small business customers’ priorities. With this dedicated support structure, Dell has grown small business sales faster than the market in each of the past six years, according to tallies by IDC.
Vertical industry segments have their limits. In medicine, a plastic surgery practice will have different needs than a behavioral health clinic. The level of buyer sophistication will also vary among, say, the restaurants in a city. Within the same industry, a fast-growing business will have different needs than a stable business, needs for which a provider company could offer a critical solution or merely ordinary support. Providers must identify the current and future needs of their customers and then define the value proposition based on those needs ( see Figure 1).
A technology company, for instance, could sort small businesses along criteria that the customers consider important, such as reliability, ease of use, cloud integration, customization, price and so on. That would yield different segments, such as those seeking premium performance or familiar brands or low-budget offerings ( see Figure 2). Then the provider could begin its program with one clearly defined subsegment to determine what works, what does not and impart those lessons to other subsegments. Amazon Business started with office supplies, a subscale business for Amazon, but the resulting customer acquisition and data allowed the company entry into other B2B product categories.
Evaluate the economics to serve each segment—namely, what gross margins these customers will generate and how much operating expense you can afford to serve them. Within this expense envelope, identify possible ways to go to market, which could include digital engagement, inside vs. outside coverage, partnerships for referrals, and ongoing sales and support.
Some companies leverage proprietary data from one product line to break into another product line. Intuit, for example, has used data from its QuickBooks accounting platform to inform the launch of its lending business to small companies. Intuit evaluates the financial health of each customer based on the financial information provided in QuickBooks as well as personal and business credit reports. Intuit makes the loans directly but also enables other financing partners, such as OnDeck and Funding Circle, to lend through its platform. Intuit also has launched online matchmaking to connect small businesses with accountants. This ecosystem delivers extra value for accountant customers, small business customers and Intuit itself ( see Figure 3).
An e-commerce website obviously can serve small customers efficiently, but to be truly effective, it must have the flexibility to tailor marketing messages and product offerings to different target segments in real time. Many traditional incumbents lack the capabilities necessary for a strong digital user interface, so successful companies often work with partners experienced in building e-commerce systems.
One agricultural supplier struggled to serve the long tail of smaller customers through its direct salesforce. It designed a functional front end of an e-commerce app for soft launch, while it also digitized the transaction of 1,200 farmers. This supplier estimates a potential profit upside of $ 50 million for 2020, along with an improved customer experience.
The way that some large incumbents are organized can make it uneconomical to serve small businesses. Take a traditional bank making loans. A $ 70,000 loan could yield $ 5,000 in profit for the bank, but a $ 5,500 loan would yield a $ 6,000 loss—mainly because of fixed administrative costs.
Most successful providers organize a separate unit with a dedicated focus on small businesses. The organizational structure should be determined by what customers buy, how they buy it, how new customers are acquired and how their relationships are best managed. A company might steer micro businesses to a website, with online chat offered to answer questions, whereas midsize businesses could merit a sales rep who calls periodically. In that case, it’ s critical to get the handoffs right and to have a process for moving accounts up to the right level of support as they grow.
Unless incumbent providers raise their game in serving small businesses, they will cede this growing market to a new generation of mostly digital native insurgents. For those providers that can address small company needs profitably, they stand to earn the loyalty of a customer set that includes high-growth winners in the years ahead.
Mikaela Boyd and Jessica Schreiber Solera are partners with Bain & Company’ s Customer Strategy & Marketing practice. They are based, respectively, in New York and Houston.
Companies that plan ahead and tap digital tools can not only survive a downturn but thrive.
Allocate time with customers based on analytics, not gut instinct.
Up to 30% of consumer packaged goods ( CPG) companies’ operating margins are put at risk in the US as these alliances expand their influence.
A disciplined cadence combined with new skills and behaviors will help the sales team maintain revenues and emerge from the Covid-19 crisis stronger.
As retailers face tectonic shifts, consumer goods companies need to get more serious about customer focus.
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How Fast the Coronavirus Could Spread, According to One Model | Investors know the coronavirus is a concern for markets—it knocked the S & P 500 1.6% lower on Monday, snapping a 70-session streak of moves smaller than 1%. How bad the outbreak could get is the critical question.
Cascend Securities, a fundamentals-based data and research company, took a look at the problem, building its own model to forecast what might happen. It’ s a complex call.
To start with, China isn’ t known for data transparency. While the official toll has risen more than tenfold in a week—the figures as of Monday were at least 4,500 confirmed cases and more than 100 deaths in China—some doctors, journalists, and residents of Wuhan, where the virus was identified, say that many more cases haven’ t been reported.
The disease has also spread to multiple Asian countries as well as the U.S., Canada, France, and Australia, although with few cases so far.
Another big unknown is the virus’ s rate of infection, meaning the number of people to whom one person could pass the disease. While Cascend initially estimated that the number was between 1.3 and 2.0, it based its research on a range of 2.5 to 4, reflecting the possibility that the coronavirus might be more contagious than previously thought.
When, and if, China is able to effectively quarantine all the possibly infected people is also critical to mapping the disease’ s course. The longer it takes, the more infections will compound, especially in such a densely populated country.
About 9.3 million people currently reside in Wuhan, according to Cascend, and roughly 26.1 million people live within 300 kilometers of the city. Some 84.5 million people are within 600 kilometers, and 240.6 million are within 1,000. To put that into perspective, about 8.4 million people lived in New York City as of 2018, with four million in Los Angeles, and 2.7 million in Chicago.
A weekly guide to our best stories on technology, disruption, and the people and stocks in the middle of it all.
China has already locked down Wuhan and 16 other nearby cities, effectively isolating a combined population of more than 50 million. All flights and trains leaving Wuhan have been canceled since Jan. 22. Still, many people that might have been exposed to the virus had left the city before the lockdown, and are possibly now carrying the virus all over the world.
Many countries, including the U.S., have been screening travelers from Wuhan at airports for symptoms such as fever, coughing, and difficulty breathing. But the virus has an incubation period of roughly 10 to 14 days, so some travelers might be contagious without showing symptoms.
If China can effectively quarantine its infected population by March, Cascend’ s model forecasts, as few as 30,000 people will be infected, with 13,500 deaths. That is a lot of people, but as the Cascend report notes, the common flu kills 35,000 people a year and hospitalizes about 200,000 in the U.S. alone.
If the infected population isn’ t quarantined by September, however, the number of infected people could reach 800,000, lifting the death toll to 200,000. The figures could reach 2.3 million infections and 600,000 deaths if the world can’ t quarantine the infected population by the end of 2020.
Tuesday afternoon, the market seemed to be pricing in a less dire outcome. The S & P 500 was up 1% as investors focused on strong corporate earnings. | business |
Luckin Coffee Stock Has Room to Rise, Morgan Stanley Says | Luckin Coffee American depositary shares perked back up Tuesday, after dipping on Monday as markets grappled with coronavirus fears.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley hiked their price target by more than 55% in a note Monday night.
The back story. Luckin Coffee American depositary shares ( ticker: LK) have soared 134% from their $ 17 initial public offering price last May. A jump in November from strong quarterly revenue results pushed the Starbucks ( SBUX) rival higher.
The company has passed Starbucks in terms of total stores in China, according to research from Thinknum Media. But Luckin fell 9% on Monday, as the spread of the coronavirus outbreak hit markets around the world.
What’ s new. A team of analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note Monday that they believe the stock’ s prior rally was a response to its initiatives, such as a tea franchise and unmanned retail spots.
As the company expands its Luckin Tea products into lower-tier cities, the analysts expect Luckin will see efficient network expansion without intensive capital commitments. For unmanned retail, the company also hopes to set up 10,000 coffee machines and 100,000 vending machines by the end of 2021.
“ This business supplements its core coffee stores by providing high-quality products with convenience at favorable prices, ” they wrote.
Luckin’ s American depositary shares rose 7% Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.8%.
As for coronavirus, Morgan Stanley says the company has noted most stores are normally closed during the Lunar New Year holiday. They added it is too early to quantify the further impact after the holiday, so how the virus plays out remains key, according to the analysts.
Looking ahead. The analysts raised their price target for Luckin to $ 42 from $ 27, implying 13% upside from Monday’ s close. Still, they maintain an Equal Weight rating. They see the near-term potential of Luckin Tea and unmanned retail as being already priced into the stock.
“ We see high growth potential but acknowledge relatively low visibility, given the industry’ s rapid development, ” they wrote. | business |
Starbucks Closed More Than Half of China Stores Because of Coronavirus | Starbucks stock fell 1% after-hours Tuesday after the coffee chain revealed that it closed more than half its stores in China in response to the coronavirus.
Although profits for Starbucks’ fiscal first quarter came in ahead of analyst estimates, Wall Street worried about what the store closures would mean for 2020. Starbucks reported adjusted earnings of 79 cents a share on $ 7.1 billion in sales—higher than the 76 cents analysts projected.
So far Starbucks left its fiscal 2020 guidance unchanged, but said the store closures are expected to materially affect its second-quarter and full-year results. On a call with analysts, Starbucks said it had intended to lift some aspects of its 2020 guidance, but was unable to do so because the full impact of the coronavirus and the duration of store closures is unknown. Management stressed it expected the impact to be temporary, but that its long-term conviction in China remains.
“ As events unfold, we will be transparent with all stakeholders in communicating how we are responding to these extraordinary circumstances and the implications for our near-term business results, ” Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson said in a statement. “ We remain optimistic and committed to the long-term opportunity in China, building on our brand heritage and 20-year legacy of profitable growth. ”
Every weekday evening we highlight the consequential market news of the day and explain what's likely to matter tomorrow.
Guidance will be updated when the company is better able to assess the impact of the virus.
China has been a key growth area for Starbucks as it operates more than 4,000 stores in the country. Same-store sales grew 3% in China during the fiscal first quarter, after being flat in the year-ago quarter.
Globally, Starbucks saw same-store sales increase 5%, with comparable growth of 6% in the U.S.
“ Building on solid business momentum from fiscal 2019, Starbucks performed very well throughout the first quarter, including one of the strongest holiday seasons in the history of our company, ” Johnson said, adding that beverage innovation and digital efforts helped drive top-line growth and boost margins.
Starbucks’ loyalty program now has 18.9 million active members, representing a 16% increase from last year. | business |
What the Options Market Says About Super Tuesday | What’ s scarier to investors than the Wuhan coronavirus that has sent global stocks sharply lower? A Democratic president.
Some investors will find that statement to be odious, but the stock and options market say otherwise. Since we alerted readers in late November that investors had begun hedging stocks well in advance of the Democratic primaries, the issue has advanced to become one of the financial market’ s main risk factors.
As stocks hover near record highs—the coronavirus weakness is duly noted—investors are increasingly afraid that any change to President Donald Trump’ s pro-growth, pro-market will infect stocks and send the market sharply lower.
Many investors fear that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, leading Democratic presidential candidates, are elected president they will change capital-gains taxes and enact Robin Hood policies that take from the rich and give to the poor, or less rich. The nation is so polarized—politically and economically—that the mere mention of those investor concerns generally generates acrimonious debate.
If these concerns resonate with you, investors can hedge the election cycle. Because political fortunes can change faster than investor sentiment, it is advisable to just focus on key political events, rather than trying to hedge the entire election cycle with a November hedge. The truncated approach also is more cost-effective because it only entails hedging the portfolio for a few months rather than for a stretch of 10-months or more.
Consider March 3, the date of the so-called Super Tuesday primary. The primary is more important this year than in year’ s past because California, one of the most politically-important states, changed their primary date to join Super Tuesday. If Sanders emerges victorious, for example, it is likely that the stock market would decline. Investors would interpret the development as a sign that the nation may be veering toward a more liberal future.
To hedge an account in case of a Sanders or Warren winning Super Tuesday, investors can buy SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust ( ticker: SPY) March $ 310 puts. The puts cost about $ 4 when the exchange-traded fund was trading just under $ 324.
If SPY is at $ 300 when the put expires, the put would be worth $ 10.
During the past 52 weeks, SPY has ranged from $ 261.79 to $ 332.95. So far this year, the fund is up about 0.6%, though the market gained about 29% in the previous year. | business |
Potential Global Spread of New Coronavirus Mapped by New Study | Global cities receiving airline travelers from 18 high-risk cities in mainland China over three month period. Credit: WorldPop
Experts in population mapping at the University of Southampton have identified cities and provinces within mainland China, and cities and countries worldwide, which are at high-risk from the spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV).
A report by the University’ s WorldPop team has found Bangkok ( Thailand) is currently the city most at risk from a global spread of the virus – based on the number of air travelers predicted to arrive there from the worst affected cities in mainland China. Hong Kong ( China) is second on the list, followed by Taipei ( Taiwan, the Republic of China). Sydney ( 12), New York ( 16) and London ( 19) are among 30 other major international cities ranked in the research.
The most ‘ at-risk’ countries or regions worldwide are Thailand ( 1), Japan ( 2) and Hong Kong ( 3). USA is placed 6th on the list, Australia 10th and the UK 17th.
Within mainland China, the cities of Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Chongqing are all identified as high-risk by the researchers, along with the Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Henan.
Full data can be found in the report on the WorldPop website.
Andrew Tatem, Director of WorldPop and professor within Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Southampton, says: “ It’ s vital that we understand patterns of population movement, both within China and globally, in order to assess how this new virus might spread – domestically and internationally. By mapping these trends and identifying high-risk areas, we can help inform public health interventions, such as screenings and healthcare preparedness. ”
The team at WorldPop used anonymized mobile phone and IP address data ( 2013-15) 1, along with international air travel data ( 2018) 2 to understand typical patterns of movement of people within China, and worldwide, during the annual 40-day Lunar New Year celebrations ( including the seven day public holiday from January 24 to 30).
From this, they identified 18 Chinese cities ( including Wuhan) at high-risk from the new coronavirus and established the volume of air passengers likely to be traveling from these cities to global destinations ( over a three month period). The team was then able to rank the top 30 most at-risk countries and cities around the world.
The researchers acknowledge that their analysis is based on ‘ non-outbreak’ travel patterns, but highlight that a high proportion of people traveled with symptoms at an early stage of the outbreak, before restrictions were put in place. In fact, travel cordons are likely to have only coincided with the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan for the holiday period. According to Wuhan authorities, it is likely more than five million people had already left the city.
Lead report author Dr. Shengjie Lai of the University of Southampton comments: “ The spread of the new coronavirus is a fast moving situation and we are closely monitoring the epidemic in order to provide further up-to-date analysis on the likely spread, including the effectiveness of the transport lockdown in Chinese cities and transmission by people returning from the Lunar New Year holiday, which has been extended to February 2. ”
WorldPop at the University of Southampton conducted this research in collaboration with the University of Toronto, St Michael’ s Hospital Toronto, disease surveillance organization Bluedot in Toronto and the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. | tech |
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