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Stop legitimizing the bullshit. Call it what it is and keep it moving. He's doing this intentionally, which is why he hasn't taken back anything. Stop pretending he's not a maga chud. | Anger | 0.888311 |
Put this guy in charge of anything. | Anger | 0.864867 |
I voted today in Pennsylvania! Harris/Walz to the White House! | Anger | 0.581102 |
Polls be like:
Is Donald Trump guilty of the crimes he has been accused?
Yes: 60%
No: 34%
Is Donald Trump a moral monster?
Yes: 74%
No: 20%
Is Donald Trump going to Hell?
Yes: 90%
No: 7%
Who are you voting for?
Harris: 49%
Trump: 47% | Anger | 0.863976 |
Voted in Ohio today. +1 for Harris and +1 for Sherrod Brown. | Anger | 0.443464 |
As a followup to my [first post about why I'm confident Harris will outperform polls](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1g0ihi5/rpolitics_2024_us_elections_live_thread_part_36/lr9ybg4/), the second reason I believe Harris is being underestimated in polling is because of the gap between polling and campaign resource management. Essentially, polls capture public *sentiment*, while campaign resource management is focused on *turnout*.
**1. Most good polls distinguish between registered voters and likely voters.** This is because they understand that public sentiment could be different between voters who are capable of voting and those who actually will vote by election day. Voter turnout is one of the most decisive elements of election results that is often overlooked or underappreciated versus metrics like polls.
**2. Historically both campaigns do their best to get out their voters.** The modern way to run a campaign is persuasion (media interviews, rallies, debates, TV ads) mixed with coordinated campaign efforts to knock on doors, call/text known supporters, and essentially do everything you can to get your core voters to a voting booth. This was particularly important for Democrats for most of the 20th century, as a core part of their voting block were typically younger, poorer, less educated, and less likely to vote. Republicans typically performed better with older, educated, and middle class voters who tended to vote more regularly.
**3. Trump doesn't have professional ground game in place for 2024.** Trump, unusually, has never focused much on get out the voter efforts. His persuasion imprint via media networks is so atypically strong he has been able to generate enthusiasm and drive less likely voters to the polls in both 2016 and 2020. In the single election he won, 2016, he also benefited from more typical GOP operatives running those operations for him while he focused on media persuasion. 2020 essentially had a hacked together get out the vote ops from both parties, but still essentially was run by professional GOP campaign managers. Before the 2024 campaign Trump essentially gutted the RNC, placing his own people in place, and is running the campaign with his own internal team... and [they have no idea what they are doing.](https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/politics/trump-campaign-ground-game/index.html).
**4. The Harris campaign is running the best ground operation since Obama 2008.** Kamala's campaign, largely inherited from the Biden machine, is outpacing Trump's [in nearly every metric.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/05/harris-trump-campaign-spending/) She's outspending him nearly 2-1, has more staff, more volunteers, a larger surrogate operation, more digital advertising, and more cash on hand for last minute pivots. And, most importantly, she is dead focused on the seven battle ground states that matter (PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, NV, NC), not repeating one of the biggest mistakes Hillary made in 2016.
**5. 2024 turnout is more likely to advantage Harris than Trump.** For all these reasons, Harris is likely to have a turnout advantage that is not fully captured in a polling system largely focused on candidate sentiment. Harris is more likely to get her voters - women, educated, and younger voters - to the polls. Trump would need to over perform his current polling with unlikely voters for the third straight time, but without the ground game he took advantage of in 2016 or the neither-team-has-a-ground-game situation he also benefited from in 2020 that is unlikely to be replicated in 2024. | Fear | 0.493214 |
Just dropped off my ballot in rural PA, Harris/Walz! | Disgust | 0.405473 |
I know we all have our eyes on PA early voting, but if you want to talk about enthusiasm: WI has already returned almost **36%** of their requested mail-in ballots!
[https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker](https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker)
And according to NBC, the returned % breakdown by party is:
* Other 42%
* Dem 40%
* GOP 17%
On, Wisconsin! | Fear | 0.393544 |
Just cast an early in-person ballot for Harris in AZ. | Disgust | 0.379313 |
I’m telling you right now, there is no way in hell PA and MI elected Democratic governors by double digits in very recent, midterm, off-year elections, while Biden was president and are suddenly going to go for Trump. | Anger | 0.480156 |
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-project-2025-author-coming-onboard-if-elected-1966334
Thanks for bringing 2025 back into the conversation Trump. | Disgust | 0.357716 |
Went to the Pittsburgh rally with Obama tonight and got to shake his hand - he was on fire. Totally get all the hype now as someone who is too young to remember 2008 | Disgust | 0.411602 |
Just voted blue down ballot in Ohio💙💙 | Disgust | 0.460906 |
Were I a member of Trump's team, I would be seriously questioning how a Democratic mayoral candidate just destroyed his Republican opponent in an area Trump won by 15 points.
That, combined with Republican senators under threat who haven't been in this deep water for ages, would be ringing alarm bells for me. | Fear | 0.437084 |
My dad put out a yard sign that says “Harris/Walz 2024. Obviously.” | Disgust | 0.403588 |
The end of Obama's speech, particularly about how some men think that Trump's behavior shows strength, definitely resonates. Donald Trump has the same vision of masculinity as Andrew Tate, and it's a horribly twisted vision. It's born out of insecurity, selfishness, and bullying, not real strength.
As Obama said: "That's not what real strength is. It never has been. Real strength is about working hard and carrying a heavy load without complaining. Real strength is about taking responsibility for your actions and telling the truth even when it's inconvenient. Real strength is about helping people who need it, and standing up for those who can't always stand up for themselves."
Anyway, I'm glad Obama put something into words that I've been feeling. | Anger | 0.583515 |
“We put a man on the moon and by god, we’ll put a woman in the white house.”
oooh that’s good | Anger | 0.411993 |
I'm still getting more surprised about how much Harris/Walz signage I'm seeing here in NC. Don't get me wrong, there's still more for Trump in a red area, but it's pretty shocking how different the ratios seem to be compared to 16 and 20 when you could hardly find any democratic sign here outside of polling buildings.
Hell some people have gotten real redneck and I've seen signs nailed up for Harris/Walz in trees, I guess to avoid them getting pulled up. People aren't messing around this year. | Fear | 0.426796 |
The best part of this is that no one can get under Trump's skin the way Obama can. He's gotta be absolutely losing his shit right now. | Anger | 0.761105 |
[https://x.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1844387504046432262](https://x.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1844387504046432262)
>Talked to a woman who believes the US government is controlling hurricanes to hurt Donald Trump’s chances in the 2024 Election.
So according to the GOP, human-caused climate change is a hoax.
However, the Democrats can control the weather.
How will our democracy survive when a segment of our population has this level of insane beliefs? | Anger | 0.781482 |
People constantly talking about an October surprise...
How about a November surprise where Harris exceeds everyone's expectations and flips multiple states and both the house and the senate attain a blue majority to give Democrats the trifecta, resulting in an implosion of the Republican party? | Anger | 0.473112 |
There is a reason why Democrats are always anxious (come good polls or bad) as opposed to Republicans who always think they are winning (come good polls or bad).
It's cause Republicans will be perfectly fine if Democrats are elected and they know that...
Unfortunately, the same can't be said if Republicans are elected...
Real things are at stake and the Republican electorate is unserious by design. | Fear | 0.533915 |
The reason I know she did great in the town hall is they are saying she knew the questions before hand and had a teleprompter in the live stream’s comment section. | Disgust | 0.398778 |
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113283910552788092
The fact that Trump felt the need to post a screenshot of an internal poll he's barely winning makes me inclined to think he isn't receiving a lot of them that he's winning.
And even if he is, reminder, Romney's internals had him winning. | Anger | 0.685472 |
I'd like to remind everyone that a major reason why most of the polls are showing a close race in the swing states is because [many are weighting them to 2020 recalled vote](https://archive.is/1SJ7o). They're essentially herding without herding by assuming that the 2024 election will look the same as the 2020 election. Problem with this method is if you weight to last election, it shouldn't be a surprise when your numbers this year look the same.
This also means the sample will inherently be more Republican and it is designed to not pick up any shift in voter sentiment. Pollsters assume 2024 will be the same as 2020, so they want their polls to reflect that. No one wants to take risks anymore in polling for fear of getting it wrong. To quote that article I linked,
> A near repeat of the last presidential election is certainly a plausible outcome. In today’s polarized era, who could possibly be surprised by a repeat in Mr. Trump’s third presidential run? If it’s a near repeat, the polls weighted by recall vote won’t just have an excellent night themselves, but they might also spare the entire industry another four years of misery.
>
> But if this election is different, in any direction, this year’s polls might not be able to see it coming. | Fear | 0.622105 |
“JUST IN: Judge CHUTKAN has *granted* Jack Smith’s motion to publicly docket his packed of exhibits related to last week’s immunity brief. But she’s delayed it by a week in deference to Trump’s request to evaluate his litigation options.”
https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1844477704038723756?s=46 | Anger | 0.777186 |
Democrats have been pretty impressive the past few months. Organizing to retire Biden, coalescing around Harris, re(re)branding as a patriotic centrist party, relatively skillful messaging. Harris has been a consistent campaigner, Walz was an inspiring pick you can project governance hopes on. Everyone has their head down, and there's decent energy in the streets.
Whatever counterfactuals we can imagine, the Democrats themselves have done about as well as we could have hoped for in picking a plan and executing it relatively well. | Fear | 0.345157 |
Lmfao being up 1% in your internals is literally terrible..... It's also worth to note that John Mcaughlin is Trump's campaingn pollster. McLaughlin is literally the worst pollster in the country, he's so bad the RNC blackballed him. Famous for giving his client the numbers they want to hear. Back in July when Biden was in the race he said that Trump had a chance to win New Jersey thats how deluded he is | Anger | 0.835578 |
The polls released yesterday on 538's aggregate show something that somewhat validates my theory: Trump and Co. are going to try to flood polling aggregates with partisan polling to then try to claim the election is stolen when the result goes above what the polling averages say.
"The polls showed I was winning in every state, how could she have won those states? There's no way." Or something like that. | Anger | 0.668919 |
Inflation numbers still falling. Democrats need to go on the offensive about how Republicans perpetually wreck the economy after Democrats painstakingly repair it. | Anger | 0.849509 |
Expect to see a flood of positive Trump polls going forward as Republicans prepare to claim there is fraud when Trump loses again.
This is another reason why having early voting is so important. We can watch the actual results come in and see a steady pattern. | Fear | 0.540844 |
MAGA heads exploding today as Madam VEEP is on the cover of Vogue with a much better picture this time.
It riled up the bots this morning. | Fear | 0.362468 |
Voted early in Ohio yesterday. Fellow Buckeyes be sure to vote for Sherrod Brown and yes on issue 1. | Disgust | 0.332348 |
Via @AlexThomp: Harris town hall on CNN Oct 23rd in Pennsylvania.
Good. | Fear | 0.390912 |
ERROR: type should be string, got "https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1844385328024719603?t=y2GUvoqSjf04CTIVwiLIEQ&s=19\n\n\nLocal firm @muhlenberg_poll follows suit from SP&R yesterday with a PA-07 survey.\n\n🦅 POTUS\n\n🔵 Harris: 50% (+3)\n🔴 Trump: 47%\n\n🏛️ PA SEN\n\n🔵 Casey: 51% (+6)\n🔴 McCormick: 45%\n\n🗳️ Congress\n\n🔵 Wild: 51% (+6)\n🔴 MacKenzie: 45%\n\nHarris wins statewide in this case, FYI.\n\n\n\nhttps://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1844385329647845848?t=8W04cIDeTXyfQTlcEF5iLQ&s=19\n\nThis tracks (on a less severe note) with SP&R in terms of finding further leftward shifts within suburban heavy PA districts. \n\n\nAnd, given the high concentration of Latinos in this one, you're not getting a result like this unless they're more or less static split-wise." | Anger | 0.552915 |
"Has Trump ever changed a diaper?"
<Laughter. Obama chuckles.>
"I was gonna say something but then I decided I shouldn't." | Anger | 0.68934 |
https://x.com/IanSams/status/1844416125595156696?t=wSmNZWOnA3_JNnCwk2JfZg&s=19
"NEW >> Harris accepts CNN Town Hall invite. JOD slams Trump ducking CNN debate as "disservice to the American people."
"It is clear Trump would rather cocoon himself in safe spaces and avoid real questions"
"Trump fears another debate where VP Harris would hold him accountable"
CNN Debate is now a townhall for harris | Anger | 0.732035 |
For anyone who missed it, the TIPP poll yesterday overplayed its hand and revealed the game. In short, they got a Harris +4 poll in PA among registered voters. When they “adjusted” for “likely voters,” it became Trump +1.
That’s pretty normal though? Nope. They reduced the vote share from Philadelphia from 11% down to 1% to give Trump a fake lead despite over 70% of Philly respondents saying they are “definitely voting.”
📄Does this mean they’re all cooking the books? No… but there are something like 20+ right wing “pollsters” flooding the averages. This one got caught because they were dumb enough to remove almost every voter from one major city. Don’t think for a second others aren’t doing similar stuff, just less blatantly.
⭐️ But some of these pollsters are highly rated?! Yeah, because lots of them popped on the scene very recently in 2020 during covid, hyped up Trump’s numbers and got it right by a fluke. So they have decent ratings but barely any track record.
🧂 Does this mean no polls are trustworthy? No! But it does mean we should take them with a grain of salt.
🗳️ It’s October. Polls always artificially tighten. Don’t sweat it and get out the vote! | Anger | 0.738859 |
Okay, we're finally getting to the point where there is enough early vote in several key states to begin to watch for emerging trends. So I'll kick off my first early vote thread of 2024 with a look at Pennsylvania.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719883252117513?s=46
One quick note before we begin - for the sake of brevity I will generally refer to all ballots cast before election day as "early votes", regardless of how they were cast (mail, early in person, etc). I may talk about mode from time to time, but generally just combine them all.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719884564885893?s=46
If you look at the vote reported in PA so far, Dems have a solid advantage in terms of party registration, though the gap is smaller than it was in 2020 at this same point, but that doesn't tell the whole story. More on that in a moment.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719886263558366?s=46
You'll also note that there are more total ballots cast reported so far than were at this point in 2020. I believe that has more to do with timing/reporting than anything else, but I'll dig deeper on that when I have time.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719888612389002?s=46
Now let's look at the early vote in PA by modeled partisanship. It shows a wider Dem lead than at this point in 2020. Why is that? The answer is simple - the model believes that the unaffiliated voters are more Dem than they were in 2020.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719890260717901?s=46
With our data we can look more closely at these unaffiliated early voters. This chart shows the racial breakdown of unaffiliated early voters at this point in each year. Notice how they are far more likely to be voters of color this year? The white share is 6 pts below 2020.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719892878004672?s=46
Let's go back to the total early vote numbers though. We can look at how these voters cast their ballot in 2020. Here we can see that an impressive 37% of GOP early voters cast their vote on Election Day in person in 2020, as compared to 11% of Dems.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719895524647201?s=46
Looking at gender, women are accounting for a larger share of the early vote in PA than they did at this point in 2020, and in-line with 2022, suggesting the post-Dobbs environment continues (as we have seen elsewhere an in other data).
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719898112442813?s=46
Now, looking at the racial breakdown of women early voters in PA, we see the biggest increases among women of color, especially Black women whose turnout is 248% of their turnout at this point in 2020, compared to 146% for white women.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719900591337662?s=46
I'm not going to wrap this in a tidy package and say what we're seeing is indicative of a win for one candidate or another. We can't do that. I will say I expected to see more of a partisan gap closing with Republicans spending more resources on converting early voters.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719902814335125?s=46
While Republicans have converted a number of election day voters to vote early, Democratic turnout, especially among voters of color, has negated those potential gains for the Trump campaign. Stay tuned, more states to come.
Source - https://x.com/tbonier/status/1844719904085196986?s=46 | Fear | 0.524076 |
>when you look at the world, when they had these meetings, it's going to be, like, representing China, a man, representing Russia, a man. So then the big, bad strong U.S. going to have Kamala. In my opinion, I don't think the world is ready for it.
This is from a recent NPR [article](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/nx-s1-5133172/polls-suggest-republicans-are-making-gains-among-black-voters-especially-black-men) about some black men choosing Trump over Harris. Literally textbook misogyny, not wanting to vote for a woman. | Anger | 0.830376 |
Trump insulting Detroit in Detroit is pretty wild. Overused meme but *it's a bold strategy, Cotton* | Anger | 0.831769 |
I really don’t understand what Trump is doing. I guess his hubris overcame him and he’s testing how far he can push the limits. But every appearances go against common sense.
- Tells on a Jewish convention it’s the jew’s fault if he loses
- Calls the country “will end up being like Detroit”…in Detroit.
- Talks about choosing “between the Black president or the white president” on a black conservative convention.
- etc.
This is just self-sabotaging and he doesn't care. I can't imagine someone who's not hard into politics finding this appealing. | Anger | 0.849467 |
As in every election, the polls get whacky mid-October with results not even consistent with themselves. Got a poll yesterday with PA 8 points to the left of MI. Then today NV 8 points to the right of GA.
It’s the home stretch. Same period where Romney started getting amazing polls in 2012 and Dr. Oz was supposed to have taken the lead in 2022.
Poll panic is past us. It’s GOTV time. | Fear | 0.560271 |
Just voted for Kamala/Walz via mail. I'm in a safely Blue state, but it feels good to get it done. LFG. | Disgust | 0.326731 |
Not enough is being made on here about the fact that Harris is going to get her own nationally-televised town hall with the spotlight completely on her. That close to the election. That is huge, and will give her a ton of media momentum when it matters most. | Fear | 0.484015 |
Flooding of the zone, just like 2022.
Insider Advantage has released 4 polls in 48 hours. Trump released his internals, TIPP is fixing numbers in PA polls.
I’ll warn everyone, the last 25 days are going to be the most exhausting of all.
Eyes on the prize! | Fear | 0.613277 |
Thank you dude. For calling people out. Gently.
I'm so disappointed in my fellow Americans. I don't know that I'll ever get over it. | Disgust | 0.579623 |
Trump supporters: doesnt matter we are lagging in funding, polls, and enthusiasm. Trumps gonna win! Maga! Trumps gonna shoot hurricanes with laser beams and save us all
Democrats: oh god this poll kamala dropped by one point we are doomed it’s joever :( worlds ending
(It will be so funny to see magas lose again ngl.) | Fear | 0.540388 |
Kamala is making almost no mistakes, Trump is making nothing BUT mistakes.
America: "tossup" | Anger | 0.86012 |
Trump: “The word grocery. It's sort of a simple word. But it sort of means like everything you eat. The stomach is speaking. It always does."
Edit: during the same speech he said
“The whole country’s going to be like — you want to know the truth?” “It’ll be like Detroit. Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president. You’re going to have a mess on your hands"
The speech was in Detroit | Anger | 0.588219 |
Obama's speech last night was moving, he's still got the touch.
https://www.vote.gov
Check your registration, have a plan to vote. Talk to your friends and make sure they are ready to vote as well. | Fear | 0.381184 |
Honestly, I think a Trump medical event is an October surprise with a medium level of probability. Dude looks fucking terrible as of late. | Fear | 0.38758 |
I really just want this election to be done | Fear | 0.418705 |
Quite a necessary group for Trump to hold onto. Wild polls like Quinnipiac aside, I really do think that based on early voting numbers and Trump's slips in key demographics like republicans and suburban voters, Kamala will be able to win this. Being on Twitter does its best to make one forget that though.... | Fear | 0.425106 |
Please please please be a blowout. This fascist rise needs to be crushed. | Anger | 0.602021 |
Roe was decided after the 2020 election. Ever since, polling has underestimated the D vote by 4-5%. We keep talking about the 2016 & 2020 polling errors (which have clearly been adjusted for) but no one talks about the polling errors since 2020. They haven’t been adjusted for. | Fear | 0.555958 |
Harris is leading Trump among every single voting group except uneducated white men.
Yet the same polls say it’s a 50-50 toss up. Something doesn’t add up. | Anger | 0.803287 |
Can we please just say goodbye to the Trump family forever? That’s all I’m asking for. | Disgust | 0.454093 |
Keep it going. We need to expand our lead in every group imaginable. | Anger | 0.519178 |
It seems that Kamala is trending in the right direction. Trump has always been a racist misogynistic idiot, but especially as we’re reaching the home stretch he really seems like he just can’t keep up. | Anger | 0.822869 |
Polls still show a virtual tie on 538 - annoying but also good for Kamala. Keeps people from getting complacent on the left and makes the right over confident | Anger | 0.518978 |
Since most of the large metropolitan areas lean strongly Democrat, if the suburbs have tilted by 2 to 4 points to Harris, how can that not portend a substantial victory at least in the national vote? The rural areas don’t have that much population after all. | Fear | 0.502524 |
As a reminder: while the trend is good, there is only one poll that matters, and it is on November 5th. Vote! (Vote early if you can, and help others to get out the vote). | Fear | 0.500434 |
Silent Harris voter wave incoming… | Fear | 0.424639 |
I live a little south of Ames Iowa and went to small town for my nieces away game. I was actually really surprised how many Harris/Waltz sign
S on lawn. Def some Trump too but usually it’s 90% Republicans signs around here. It’s like 65/35% | Fear | 0.356214 |
Saw that mentioned earlier, but how significant is this ?
Give me that hopium please :) | Fear | 0.35096 |
Good. Don't get complacent until November 6th. | Fear | 0.45043 |
I think we're gonna see a shift in the suburban vote, specifically after Harris's media blitz this last week.
They're gonna see how normal and coherent she is outside of a political setting, and I think it's gonna win a lot of people over. No rambling, no weird ass comments, just a person who can speak. | Fear | 0.438814 |
If you want to lose your mind, try to follow the daily polls that show Harris is up 6 with suburban voters, has a nearly 2-1 lead with every educational demographic except non-college white people and is still within MOE in every swing state. It just don't add up. | Fear | 0.380061 |
I think i would be lying if i didn't say i wasn't worried about this election | Disgust | 0.519158 |
what is amazing is the senate races aren't this close. How do you vote for the democrat for senate but then vote Trump for president. Those are people I never want to meet. | Disgust | 0.336868 |
Republican fuckery runs do deep. | Anger | 0.855533 |
So weird that here in Oregon, we do 100% mail-in voting and postal service doesn't have any issues. So weird! That it's only a problem in certain states! | Fear | 0.353506 |
People were circumventing 6 hour long voting lines with mail in voting so now that has to of course be delayed. USPS used to prioritize ballots but not anymore because its not in republicans' interest to do so. | Anger | 0.535312 |
They are deliberate sabotage not "Problems", and yes, NC and the other Swing states will all be affected by targeted "problems". | Fear | 0.579378 |
This headline is a great example of "sanewashing"!
These aren't "big ideas," they are First Amendment violations proposed with malicious intent to harm non-Christian and queer students and teachers, or anyone who supports them. | Anger | 0.881379 |
It's not "ideas", it's "lies". Shouldn't "journalists" know the difference? | Anger | 0.878489 |
In four years, if I don't like the Democrat President, I can vote to get her out. I'm not convinced I could do the same for the Republican President. | Anger | 0.46884 |
The Biden administration wanted Social Media to reign in misinformation.
Trump and Vance have actively called for the imprisonment of people who say stuff they don't like.
Reason, "Both of these are the same." | Anger | 0.879659 |
Oh let's not do this. only one candidate is openly wanting to jail people who disagree with him. Don't pretend like they're anywhere close in the same ballpark. | Anger | 0.893975 |
[removed] | Disgust | 0.366513 |
myfuckinggod what is the point of this false equivalency clickbait trash | Anger | 0.88611 |
The cashier at CVS is not my friend.
The mugger with a gun threatening to kill me is also not my friend.
The fact that neither of them are my friends is irrelevant when one of them wants to kill me and the other one does not. | Anger | 0.863011 |
Walz is literally railing against school book bannings in every stump speech | Anger | 0.857681 |
Oh, “both sides” bullshit. How trite. | Anger | 0.851727 |
There is no free speech.
Nobody can say everything they want. There will always be a red line. And that is a good thing.
Anyone who supports complete "free" speech is an absolute moron. | Anger | 0.888008 |
This is actually depressing. A convicted felon and rapist is only trailing a clean candidate by 4%. How did america fall so low? | Anger | 0.745944 |
The buzz today around is that Harris' numbers have collapsed and that Trump has wrapped up the election. A lot of this is based on "leaked internal polls" from Trump's campaign showing him absolutely crushing Harris in every swing state.
It seems to be a coordinated attempt by the right wing to just claim that Trump is cruising to an easy victory to either 1. Claim it was stolen again or 2. Thinking that vibes will win the day. I think that's why we are seeing articles about how the GOP is 100% confident Trump will win by a large margin and why Trump is campaigning in blue states. They are trying to project extreme confidence and inevitability. We'll see if the sugar rush approach to winning an election actually works but I doubt it | Fear | 0.589442 |
How can we trust polls when each new one contradicts the last one so dramatically? | Anger | 0.749682 |
Now that Obama is out campaigning, I look for polls to continue to look better for Harris. | Fear | 0.379062 |
I really would not be surprised if she out performs Biden 2020 when the results land despite the sky is falling in PA | Fear | 0.396987 |
I keep seeing “don’t get complacent”. That’s the wrong message, because it suggests there is a reason to be complacent.
Swing states are very close. Decent chance Trump is ahead here. Stop assuming that Kamala is winning | Anger | 0.684162 |
Ah, a good poll for Harris. We needed that.
Throw it onto the pile and keep working to get her elected. | Anger | 0.512904 |
No room for polling complacency. Maga FASCISM must be defeated. | Anger | 0.888263 |
These polls are all within the margin of error and utterly meaningless (besides attracting eyeballs and therefore revenue). The only thing that is pretty clear that this election will be at least as messy as the last one | Fear | 0.542008 |
It doesn't matter where she is nationally polling, what matters is the swing states. [Polling in pretty much every swing state, including Pennsylvania, has shown they're effectively deadlocked neck in neck,](https://preview.redd.it/n2xh4intmwtd1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c9ac2dfb8c168bf473a1eaa23741a5cb2a072dd) with Trump marginally leading in most.
National poll results like these are encouraging, but they don't win elections.
If you're in a swing state, you need to get out and vote and encourage anyone you know who even remotely cares about the future of the country to vote as well. This election is on a razors edge and has been for a while going by the polls. The most likely outcome from the simulations done is a sweep of all swing states by either Trump or Harris. You can't afford to be complacent or be fooled by national averages. | Fear | 0.587298 |
It's easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom right now but honestly Trump is not going to win. Dems have been out performing since 2018. 2020 was an absolute layup for Trump and he lost. 2022 called for a red wave across the country but instead Dems got some big wins state side, got the Senate (by one seat but still) and only lost a couple house seats. Early voting has already started and we're seeing high turnout. Polls are mattering less and less as we near election day so stop worrying about them. This probably sounds naive but fuck the polls they don't decide elections. | Fear | 0.614963 |
But Trump is closing in on Kamala in Pennsylvania. Please volunteer or donate. Voting is not enough. | Anger | 0.468729 |
538 has a bunch of polls with Trump ahead today, including in PA. I'm getting an ulcer. Please vote, volunteer and vote blue. I truly am distressed that we are on the razor's edge of an authoritarian dictatorship. | Fear | 0.508215 |
You know CNN you could report the economy?
"we tried nothing and we are all out of ideas" | Anger | 0.780595 |
Subsets and Splits