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People like this is why polls are next to useless.
There is a significant high volume of voters that will do the same. Polls aren’t capturing that. | Anger | 0.577026 |
A lot of republicans will be in this camp this year. | Fear | 0.349931 |
This is obvious to anyone with eyes and half a brain. But it’s worth quoting from the article anyway.
“that he’s not just a lousy candidate but a lousy person who seeks the presidency to serve himself and not the nation”
Sums it up alright but there’s so much more that could be added. | Anger | 0.800327 |
The purpose of the Electoral College was to account for slaves. Don't believe me? Here is what James Madison himself said about why they created it:
“There was one difficulty, however of a serious nature attending an immediate choice by the people. The right of suffrage was much more diffusive in the Northern than the Southern States; and the latter could have no influence in the election on the score of the Negroes. The substitution of electors obviated this difficulty and seemed on the whole to be liable to fewest objections.” | Anger | 0.633703 |
End the electoral college and implement ranked choice voting. That's the easiest solution that would force Republicans to drop fascism and actually run on a platform that's popular with people if they want to win races. | Anger | 0.867612 |
Could we please? | Fear | 0.330342 |
80% of Democrats and Independents agree
46% of Republicans agree
https://harvardpolitics.com/abolishing-the-electoral-college-might-not-be-as-hard-as-you-think/ | Anger | 0.58206 |
Trump agrees with this by the way for all the magats crying about it
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266038556504494082 | Anger | 0.590047 |
I think more than the typical arguments against ditching the EC the practical upshot is that it would encourage candidates to go to all the states and meet and greet with a plurality of Americans. Imagine how differently elections and the national conversation would be if everything didn't come down to the hyper specific issues of three states. | Fear | 0.464146 |
[removed] | Disgust | 0.366513 |
Lovely idea, but the party that needs the EC in order to win any national election moving forward is probably going to disagree. | Anger | 0.395459 |
What the fuck kind of logic is that headline | Anger | 0.834853 |
Libertarian says libertarian shit. Safe to ignore. | Anger | 0.825735 |
This article was successful in making me like Lina Khan even more than I did before | Disgust | 0.379754 |
Ah yes let's gut all government agencies and just hope billion dollar companies do the right thing in favor of consumers. /s
Shitty pro-corporate propaganda article from a libertarian, right-wing, nutjob guest writer. | Anger | 0.889228 |
This is the new attempt to lie to progressives so they don't vote for Harris, huh? I hope they don't fall for it. | Anger | 0.853235 |
Malarkey.
Pragmatic will be ditching Merrick Garland for Jack Smith prosecutor and saying that’s how she’s fulfilling her foolish promise to have a Republican in cabinet. | Anger | 0.887046 |
TX: Cruz +5, Trump +7
OH: Brown +2, Trump +6
FL: Scott +2, Trump +4
Margin of error is ±3% in Texas and Ohio, and ±3.6% in Florida.
Marist is a very good pollster, so this is pretty good news for Harris and co. The one thing that I note with Marist, however, is that Harris doesn't match Biden's numbers with Black voters. Now, it isn't fair to compare polling with the final results of a previous election, but it is interesting. Though, when exclusively Black voters in battleground states were polled by Fox (a very good pollster) Trump's ceiling is at about 12%. So there is a very real possibility that Harris's support among black voters is being understated because of the small subsections of the polls.
Edit: It is also interesting to note that Trump is running ahead of the other GOP candidates. That wasn't the case in 2016 or 2020. | Fear | 0.479886 |
It’s clear that these Senate races in Florida, Texas, and Ohio are razor-thin, showing just how divided the electorate is. Incumbents have slight edges, but with polls so close, anything can happen. The focus on independents could really shake things up, especially if they turn out in higher numbers. | Fear | 0.548122 |
Even if Dems hold Ohio they still need to hold Montana which is a coin toss, or flip either Texas/Florida to remain in control. Montana is probably the best chance but it would be awesome to see Cruz or Scott lose | Fear | 0.501362 |
It is outdated as well as the rule capping the house of reps and having a SCOTUS that doesn’t have rotating justices. | Anger | 0.87312 |
It needs to be scrapped and we need to implement ranked choice voting nationwide now. | Fear | 0.442077 |
This is a misleading headline. It implies he called for scrapping Electoral College to decide the race in November when he did no such thing.
…although that should be how we decide the race in November 🤷 | Anger | 0.846328 |
That makes too much sense for it to happen | Disgust | 0.437446 |
> Harris-Walz campaign officials stressed that abolishing the electoral college was not part of its agenda.
>
> “Governor Walz believes that every vote matters in the electoral college and he is honored to be traveling the country and battleground states working to earn support for the Harris-Walz ticket,” Teddy Tschann, a spokesman for Walz, told the New York Times.
It's a funny thing, because the "battleground states" category is not officially a part of the US Constitution, nor is the "flyover states" category. Both categories are an outgrowth of a dysfunctional system where the majority of states are relatively skewed politically. Winning elections via a national popular vote would mean that everyone's vote is equally worthwhile and these categories would become meaningless, with every vote in play. | Anger | 0.758454 |
Best not to get too excited, even if every single one of the battleground states look blue.
These early votes are from passionate Harris supporters in the vast majority (or at the very least everyone keen to see Trump stays out of office), but there's absolutely no guarantees that will reflect the turnout on election day.
Trump supporters have continually been told by his campaign and at his rallies that mail in votes cannot be trusted, so they will be making considerably more effort to vote in person on the day.
The most important thing to do, no matter what your political preferences, is for you to exercise your right to participate in democracy, and vote. | Fear | 0.581229 |
Let’s spend the next month gutting misinformation. We can’t save everyone from the nonsense but we can still save America.
Don’t relive 2016. Don’t get complacent. Get out of your comfort zone.
Talk to friends and family and sell them on Harris.
She has an economic plan approved by hundreds of economists.
It’s comprehensive. And she doesn’t just say “tariffs, tariffs, tariffs “ because unlike Trump, she understands that would make imports more expensive for Americans and lead to higher inflation.
Plus she doesn’t threaten to end the first amendment like Trump has when he threatened to imprison journalists, critics and non-Christians.
Plus she doesn’t threaten to end the Second amendment like when he said in Feb 2018 “take the guns first, due process later.”
Plus she doesn’t threaten to terminate the entire Constitution like Trump did in December 2022. you know, the whole “we the people “ document folks have on their bumper sticker.
Jon Stewart did a really good segment on how the candidates are being warped by the media.
We can do this.
https://youtu.be/HX-5jmQplIo?si=N-GSYtuzLQuxS9ux
Edit: —————-
Sources for economy:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/business/kamala-harris-economy-endorsement/index.html
https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans
Sources for Trump limiting the first Amendment:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-jailing-reporters-dropped-225329171.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-supreme-court-jail-rally-b2618050.html
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-restrict-first-amendment-1235088402/
Also he is saying Harris voters are going to get hurt.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/is-that-a-threat-trump-stuns-observers-with-comment-about-harris-voter-getting-hurt/ar-AA1rNq1r
In case you are going to bring up food prices:
https://www.newsweek.com/kroger-executive-admits-company-gouged-prices-above-inflation-1945742
Fast food prices: https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/mcdonalds-sues-major-beef-producers-us-price-fixing-lawsuit-2024-10-07/
In case you are going to bring up Rent increases:
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/nx-s1-5087586/realpage-rent-lawsuit-doj-real-estate-software-landlords-justice-department-price-fixing
In case you are going to bring up Ukraine :
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-putin-invasion
Harris didn’t threaten to censor Twitter:
https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/harris-did-not-say-she-wanted-shut-down-x-2019-interview-2024-09-10/ | Anger | 0.809607 |
Voting early increases turnout by helping GOTV efforts. Go vote ASAP! | Anger | 0.669949 |
null | null | null |
Semi-Annual Cancun getaways aren't going to pay for themselves you know | Anger | 0.714683 |
That's right, Ted! Take a stand. Take a stand on some dumb issue that makes you look the fool, instead of complying with da stupid rules. Do it with the race close . . . No new is bad news (Cancun). | Anger | 0.8862 |
[removed] | Disgust | 0.366513 |
Arrest. | Anger | 0.519928 |
Is this legal? Serious question. | Anger | 0.675971 |
Yes, please run Ted Cruz. The one human being on the planet with less charisma than JD Vance. | Anger | 0.842297 |
Gonna buy some books that just so happen to be written by Ted Cruz. | Anger | 0.560414 |
The shift from "humans can't affect the climate" to "the left can manipulate the climate" over the past 2 weeks is absolutely wild. We hit a fucking DUMB timeline. | Anger | 0.574467 |
Can we have the media report on this far more? To hammer on how Trump's self-serving lies have only harmed Americans? And please, call it for what it is: a lie.
Keep reporting on how Trump's lies about immigrants, like the Haitian one, has only resulted in harm to local communities.
Keep reporting on how Trump's lies about natural disasters just for his own gain. Or how his lies about the hurricane have only hampered federal agencies from doing their jobs, thereby harming hurricane victims.
Keep reporting on how all of Trump's economic plans have been lambasted as not only being unworkable, that they would only harm the working class by reigniting inflation and increasing costs for them.
Keep reporting the same for all of Trump's other policies - ranging from climate change, reproductive healthcare to public education. All of them would cause severe and lasting harm to the country.
But no, we get more articles about how Harris hasn't detailed enough of her platform when Trump gets a free pass for explaining zero details about his. We got far more about how Biden is too old and incoherent, yet Trump gets a free pass for being far more incoherent and now avoiding public appearances (like the second debate). | Anger | 0.871272 |
“Disinformation” aka willful lying supported by willful ignorance. | Anger | 0.876696 |
A bit from the commentary:
> Of all the lies Donald Trump tells, perhaps the most preposterous is that he cares about his own voters. That was evident in 2020, when Trump repeatedly downplayed the threat of COVID-19, even calling the pandemic a "hoax." His followers got the message, risking their own lives first by refusing to socially distance and then, going further even than Trump himself, refusing to vaccinate. The result was that excess deaths were 43% higher for Republicans than Democrats in the months after the vaccines were released. Trump's lie killed his own voters by the thousands.
>
> . . .
>
> He's spraying lies about the federal response that have rapidly spread throughout social media, convincing his followers to take risks with their own safety. His lies will kill people. He doesn't care, though, because he's betting that he can offset the losses by using these lies to turn out more voters. | Anger | 0.850034 |
“Trump’s hurricane of Milton lies: MAGA has a deadly addiction to disinformation.” True.
“Trump followers will risk their lives rather than admit their leader is wrong — it will get worse if he wins” Also true.
Now put that together with his strategy of going to hold rallies in states he is going to lose the vote in. He isn’t campaigning for votes - he is campaigning to disrupt the election.
We can’t be afraid of these people and there aren’t that many true believers. That is why his rallies are seeing dwindling attendance and enthusiasm. They do need to be stopped though. | Anger | 0.71754 |
Where’s Trumps interview? | Anger | 0.62931 |
Literally no one thinks the US is feeble | Anger | 0.859851 |
And it’s usually by republicans | Disgust | 0.350295 |
Repub voter suppression is the real problem.
Vote Dem, every race, every state. Save democracy. | Anger | 0.848133 |
Voter fraud happens, but it’s really rare and caught most of the time. Our election system has strong safeguards, making large-scale fraud unlikely. People often blow isolated cases out of proportion. | Fear | 0.533643 |
>Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the court that the states and other parties did not have the legal right, or standing, to sue.
Oh, I didn't know they cared about that anymore, maybe it's only on every other case? | Anger | 0.818965 |
Just my tinfoil hat opinion that SCOTUS occasionally throws a bone to the good guys so when they rule in a controversial manner like (hypothetically) handing the presidency to trump it will seem more legitimate. | Anger | 0.856734 |
Supreme Court surprisingly rules against Russian Propaganda | Anger | 0.817914 |
SCOTUS afraid of a blue wave taking them out or legitimately they don’t want Russian bots? | Anger | 0.868571 |
It’s extremely rare The Atlantic ever endorses a presidential candidate. They’re the definition of non partisan. But they’re fully backing Kamala given the threat Trump poses to America…and the fact that she’s an awesome candidate who it’s super easy to get excited about | Anger | 0.537957 |
She's not Trump is good enough for me. But I also like her as a person and am confident she would make correct decisions. | Disgust | 0.45392 |
Man, at this point, voting for Trump just feels like choosing to stay stuck in the same mess we’ve been in for years. We need a real change to move forward, not more chaos. | Fear | 0.43346 |
She doesn't suck | Anger | 0.822892 |
>Mark Evan Halperin (born January 11, 1965)[1] is an American journalist, television cable host, and commentator for Newsmax TV.
>In response to more than a dozen allegations of workplace sexual harassment and sexual assault at his prior position at ABC News, Halperin was fired by both Showtime Networksand NBC News towards the end of October 2017.
I guess former MSNBC analyst is one way to describe Mark Halperin lmao | Anger | 0.773752 |
Mark Halperin is now a commentator for Newsmax.
You know... that very trustworthy outlet that would never lie. | Anger | 0.841771 |
Not the headline.
ATTENTION: Social media is being flooded with concern-trolls and demoralization bots just like in 2020 and especially 2022. It ramped up big time the last 48 hours, as if it's being coordinated.
Polls tighten in October. By mid-October 2012, Obama was on track for a bad loss.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election#/media/File%3ANationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2012.svg
This is going to be a close election and there is hard evidence that polls have been very wrong lately and frequently overweigh the GOP as an overcorrection to 2020.
The best example I can provide is from my former state.
Rhode Island is a true blue state with a bit of an independent streak. In 2022, RI District 2 was Exhibit A of the pending Red Wave... if Dems could lose there they could lose ANYWHERE and EVERYWHERE.
Polls in September:
Republican 46%
Democrat 40%
Polls in October:
Republican 45%
Democrat 37%
Nate Silver's Final Projection on Election Day:
Republican 47%
Democrat 41%
*Final Result:*
Republican 46.7%
Democrat 50.4%
A 10 point overperformance by the Democrat against even his BEST polling result.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2022/rhode-island/2/
Race too small? Okay, here are three of the most high profile and heavily polled 2022 races. All wrong, all favored the Republican:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/arizona/
For something more recent, but admittedly not heavily polled, we can look at the Michigan primary this year:
Polls said Biden 73-77%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/michigan/
Biden actually got 81%
Polls said trump 76-79%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/michigan/
Trump actually got 68%
Is that the end of the story? Absolutely not. But to say the polls aren't broken in favor of the GOP lately would APPEAR to deny reality.
Vote early. Donate. And if you live in a swing state please consider volunteering. | Fear | 0.560507 |
I don’t understand why so many people are willing to let perfect be the enemy of good | Anger | 0.849014 |
the GOP candidate is literally airing ads attacking trans people. Republican governors spent last 2 years attacking trans peoole...
'but i dunno Harris isnt perfect...' these headlines are how he wins. stop w the BS Vote Blue | Anger | 0.866499 |
She isn’t perfect on trans issues, meanwhile the opposition would literally exterminate them. Stop pretending it’s even any kind of choice. | Anger | 0.877081 |
What an insane headline. Harris is about as good as it’s gonna get for black trans rights for the time being. It’s not on the forefront of her mind to win the election, but she is miles better than any given Republican for this issue. It’s almost disrespectful and gaslighting to imply any sane black LGBTQ person should consider the other side. “Even if she’s imperfect…” lol. The alternative is having your existence deemed pornographic by the government and being jailed…. or worse. | Anger | 0.845947 |
If the choices are between “Candidate backed by a policy group planning to jail people for being trans” and “Candidate who embraces diversity,” there’s really no choice at all.
Don’t let Project 2025 win. It will hurt every single American who isn’t part of the ultra elite. | Anger | 0.864423 |
Hi, trans person here. Former President Donald Trump and the GOP have an agenda that is actively harming transgender people, including me and my friends. If he wins the election, he and his party will push efforts to ban trans healthcare and eliminate protections.
Harris isn’t “not perfect but acceptable,” she’s the only choice in this election that will make any positive impact on trans lives, and the only choice that will protect us. | Anger | 0.830527 |
She’s imperfect, of course she is. But she’s FAAARRRR better than the alternative. If you want your candidate to be perfect, go to mars because that’s never going to happen here, especially in our two party system. | Anger | 0.641187 |
I mean really I’m a one issue voter. I don’t want to government to execute me and others for being trans. There’s one candidate that has openly bragged that he wants to do this, and the other is a human being with a functioning brain.
Except wait— I also don’t want the environment raped or immigrants brutalized or education converted to indoctrination or sexual abuse codified into law or national security sold off to autocrats or the delicate global order upended or wars started out of dick waggling or the entire democratic system destroyed and the world irrevocably made worse. Seems like the choice is pretty fuckin clear | Anger | 0.863309 |
Some people seem to think if they burn it all down, they’ll get Utopia in the end. Maybe they will. More likely, they’ll get a burned out hellscape for decades. | Fear | 0.439078 |
It's tiring listening to people want perfect candidates, especially if they don't advocate for changes in the way elections work. In my state I know people who swear up and down that they won't vote for Harris because she's not their ideal candidate on one issue or another but seem surprised when I tell them that ranked choice is presently being looked at. | Anger | 0.469582 |
>“I would rather have a fighting chance with her than have no chance at all with Trump.”
I hope more people will understand this type of pragmatism. We aren't getting the perfect candidate because they do not exist, but we are getting someone who can be pushed to deliver progressive change.
There are only two VIABLE candidates this election: Harris and Trump. Choose the one who closely aligns with your vision for America. Then consider how well they can be pushed on positions while in office through voter turnout data, activism and protests without threats of imprisonment or deportation. | Anger | 0.839502 |
Idk what imperfect on trans issues actually means, but Trump and the republican wave that would be necessary for a trump win will not be a friend to the lgbtq community.
The choice isn't a choice. | Anger | 0.870044 |
Let's see, the Democrats have backed every single piece of pro -LGBTQ legislature, and the Republicans promised to remove transgender people from society and keep talking with Nazi dog whistles.
Which one should I vote for?
Probably the one who won't get transgender people murdered.
Harris is the only choice. | Anger | 0.875541 |
Trans won’t be a thing under Trump. | Anger | 0.840724 |
The common problem with left wing voters.
"Yes, Harris is better for my values on literally every issue, but ["she owns a glock and said she'd shoot an intruder", "shes better on Gaza instead of perfect on it", "doesnt sant to ban oil tomorrow"] so I just can't vote for her, so I'll help enable the worst possible case for my values." | Anger | 0.826802 |
I’m trans and I’m terrified at how the anti trans rhetoric on the right has gotten worse and worse every year.
Vote Harris. Maybe if these assholes lose people will stop listening to their hateful rhetoric | Anger | 0.821905 |
Any non-vote for Kamala is a vote for the GQP’s newer version of the original eugenics Aktion T4 program. Google it. Hitler did not start with Jews. He started with the smallest subgroups of “bad genes” with the “conservative” majority’s silence. He started with gays, trans, Down Syndrome, the mentally & physically disabled and the elderly. Google it. | Anger | 0.878234 |
YES. We need to stop with the whole purity test for Democrats. NO ONE WILL BE PERFECT ON EVERY ISSUE but at least democrats listen to their constituents and make policies that positively affect people.
It’s my biggest issue with Chappell Roan’s “I have issues with both parties” ONE OF THEM WANTS TO MAKE YOUR EXISTENCE ILLEGAL | Anger | 0.885686 |
Trump is running ads saying Harris wants to use tax payers money to give trans prisoners surgery
Which is a pretty blatant "trans people bad" avenue of attack | Anger | 0.882521 |
On literally *every* issue Harris is the better choice.
Unless you're a billionaire I suppose. | Anger | 0.786554 |
"The last time I went to that restaurant the fish was a little overdone. There's one other restaurant in this town and their special is calling me subhuman with a side of rape. What. To. Chose?" | Anger | 0.792533 |
Yeah, Harris doesn’t plan to make me a felon and toss me in a death camp per the Republican/Trump Project 2025.
I’d say that’s reason enough before you even get to all the good stuff the Biden/Harris admin has done for the community the last couple years. | Anger | 0.844877 |
Thanks in no small part to the Media helping Republicans spread lies and suppress scandals. | Anger | 0.856646 |
Same account posted the same article minutes ago but with an altered alarmist headline.
ATTENTION: Social media is being flooded with concern-trolls and demoralization bots just like in 2020 and especially 2022. It ramped up big time the last 48 hours, as if it's being coordinated.
Polls tighten in October. By mid-October 2012, Obama was on track for a bad loss.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election#/media/File%3ANationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2012.svg
This is going to be a close election and there is hard evidence that polls have been very wrong lately and frequently overweigh the GOP as an overcorrection to 2020.
The best example I can provide is from my former state.
Rhode Island is a true blue state with a bit of an independent streak. In 2022, RI District 2 was Exhibit A of the pending Red Wave... if Dems could lose there they could lose ANYWHERE and EVERYWHERE.
Polls in September:
Republican 46%
Democrat 40%
Polls in October:
Republican 45%
Democrat 37%
Nate Silver's Final Projection on Election Day:
Republican 47%
Democrat 41%
*Final Result:*
Republican 46.7%
Democrat 50.4%
A 10 point overperformance by the Democrat against even his BEST polling result.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2022/rhode-island/2/
Race too small? Okay, here are three of the most high profile and heavily polled 2022 races. All wrong, all favored the Republican:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/arizona/
For something more recent, but admittedly not heavily polled, we can look at the Michigan primary this year:
Polls said Biden 73-77%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/michigan/
Biden actually got 81%
Polls said trump 76-79%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/michigan/
Trump actually got 68%
Is that the end of the story? Absolutely not. But to say the polls aren't broken in favor of the GOP lately would APPEAR to deny reality.
Vote early. Donate. And if you live in a swing state please consider volunteering. | Fear | 0.569361 |
Remember the 'red wave' that was supposed to happen in 2022, but ended up being a 'red tinkle' that has caused all kinds of chaos on the MAGA side including losing their historically inept speaker?
Don't listen to the New York Times - they are compromised. Vote blue and let's both flip the House back *and* keep the Senate. And, of course, save Democracy by electing Kamala Harris. | Anger | 0.735589 |
Deleted due to coordinated mass brigading and reporting efforts by the ADL.
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)* | Anger | 0.758403 |
Fuck the polls, go vote. Vote down ballot. Let’s get rid of this MAGA bullshit once and for all. | Anger | 0.883634 |
“We’re all looking for the guy that did this!” | Anger | 0.763664 |
Sometimes your Greatest Ally^TM isn’t cut out to be regional management | Anger | 0.816544 |
Maybe another 27 billion in weapons will fix it? | Fear | 0.456443 |
>Referring to reports of squalid conditions in south and central Gaza, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: "These catastrophic conditions were predicted months ago, and yet, have still not been addressed. That must change, and now."
NGL, I am surprised this was said and am heartened to see it...and wish much stronger actions taken to stop the war crimes in Gaza by IDF / Netanyau et al. | Fear | 0.533305 |
>Miller's election forecast is based not on polls, but on the prices for both candidates posted on the PredictIt betting site. He regards the PredictIt odds as far more reliable than polls, which reflect voter preferences that are four to five days old.
A fool and his money… | Anger | 0.835161 |
>Miller maintains that his model guided by political betting data is a much better forecaster than following the individual polls.
Basically using betting data to predict an election. No idea why we should pretend this is reliable ? | Anger | 0.748229 |
Sounds about right. Seven swing states all near-tied and it will all come down to turnout.
ATTENTION: Social media is being flooded with concern-trolls and demoralization bots just like in 2020 and especially 2022. It ramped up big time the last 48 hours, as if it's being coordinated.
Polls tighten in October. By mid-October 2012, Obama was on track for a bad loss.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election#/media/File%3ANationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2012.svg
This is going to be a close election and there is hard evidence that polls have been very wrong lately and frequently overweigh the GOP as an overcorrection to 2020.
The best example I can provide is from my former state.
Rhode Island is a true blue state with a bit of an independent streak. In 2022, RI District 2 was Exhibit A of the pending Red Wave... if Dems could lose there they could lose ANYWHERE and EVERYWHERE.
Polls in September:
Republican 46%
Democrat 40%
Polls in October:
Republican 45%
Democrat 37%
Nate Silver's Final Projection on Election Day:
Republican 47%
Democrat 41%
*Final Result:*
Republican 46.7%
Democrat 50.4%
A 10 point overperformance by the Democrat against even his BEST polling result.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2022/rhode-island/2/
Race too small? Okay, here are three of the most high profile and heavily polled 2022 races. All wrong, all favored the Republican:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/arizona/
For something more recent, but admittedly not heavily polled, we can look at the Michigan primary this year:
Polls said Biden 73-77%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/michigan/
Biden actually got 81%
Polls said trump 76-79%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/michigan/
Trump actually got 68%
Is that the end of the story? Absolutely not. But to say the polls aren't broken in favor of the GOP lately would APPEAR to deny reality.
Vote early. Donate. And if you live in a swing state please consider volunteering. | Fear | 0.585138 |
Why. | Disgust | 0.495333 |
Everyone gets a cute puppy: 51%
Disguised-as-a-fart burning diarrhea: 49% | Anger | 0.842444 |
Musk was only trying to start a pointless mud-slinging fight on his platform where he controls the dialogue. Pete realized that the only way to lose was to play.
Matthew Broderick and Ally Sheedy learned this back in the 80's and saved the world from nuclear war(games). | Anger | 0.55281 |
Gotta love Pete. I wanted him as VP, but of course, Tim Walz is as good a choice as Pete would have been. | Disgust | 0.457047 |
I hope Harris keeps him. He’s been a good addition to Biden administration. Yes hamstringed by the GQP but seriously he has been effective. Just the way he responds is on point and the party should take note. There is nothing left of the GOP or the party Biden was hoping to meet in the middle. Even the GOP that doesn’t like Trump allowed Trump to run them as a non-elected president. Sec. Buttigieg has done the same to FOX as well.
Just my personal opinion but I think Trump is evil and planned two things that he had hoped to happen. One was a known October surprise. The other was a very likely scenario that could be one and became one (lack of FEMA funding) the other is the port strike. When is a friend of Trump’s a union leader? Seems like an odd pair. The union leader is on video explaining what would happen if the port strike would happen, auto sales slow and begin law offs, then the malls won’t have things for holidays or Christmas… surely enough it happens before the election. Obviously that would be blowback on Biden/Harris. It was the Secretary who was the one to get them back to work fast. Consumers were still ransacking the TP aisle at Costco and the strike was over thanks to him. He’s a great speaker and good negotiator. | Fear | 0.497975 |
Buttigieg is a treasure. | Anger | 0.642341 |
I appreciate how good Buttigieg is at countering false information and lies, going on fox news, and here inviting Musk on X-twitter to talk to him directly and then actually doing so. (And I appreciate VF for writing a short informative piece about it.) | Anger | 0.686263 |
The movie 'Idiocracy' was meant to be a warning, not a roadmap. | Anger | 0.85591 |
Pete has been downright impressive recently just by being out there, communicative and competent. | Disgust | 0.389509 |
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