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Lasso Screening Rules via Dual Polytope Projection Jie Wang, Jiayu Zhou, Peter Wonka, Jieping Ye Computer Science and Engineering Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 {jie.wang.ustc, jiayu.zhou, peter.wonka, jieping.ye}@asu.edu Abstract Lasso is a widely used regression technique to find sparse representations. When the dimension of the feature space and the number of samples are extremely large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging. To improve the efficiency of solving large-scale Lasso problems, El Ghaoui and his colleagues have proposed the SAFE rules which are able to quickly identify the inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have 0 components in the solution vector. Then, the inactive predictors or features can be removed from the optimization problem to reduce its scale. By transforming the standard Lasso to its dual form, it can be shown that the inactive predictors include the set of inactive constraints on the optimal dual solution. In this paper, we propose an efficient and effective screening rule via Dual Polytope Projections (DPP), which is mainly based on the uniqueness and nonexpansiveness of the optimal dual solution due to the fact that the feasible set in the dual space is a convex and closed polytope. Moreover, we show that our screening rule can be extended to identify inactive groups in group Lasso. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no ?exact? screening rule for group Lasso. We have evaluated our screening rule using many real data sets. Results show that our rule is more effective in identifying inactive predictors than existing state-of-the-art screening rules for Lasso. 1 Introduction Data with various structures and scales comes from almost every aspect of daily life. To effectively extract patterns in the data and build interpretable models with high prediction accuracy is always desirable. One popular technique to identify important explanatory features is by sparse regularization. For instance, consider the widely used `1 -regularized least squares regression problem known as Lasso [20]. The most appealing property of Lasso is the sparsity of the solutions, which is equivalent to feature selection. Suppose we have N observations and p predictors. Let y denote the N dimensional response vector and X = [x1 , x2 , . . . , xp ] be the N ?p feature matrix. Let ? ? 0 be the regularization parameter, the Lasso problem is formulated as the following optimization problem: (1) inf p 21 ky ? X?k22 + ?k?k1 . ??< Lasso has achieved great success in a wide range of applications [5, 4, 28, 3, 23] and in recent years many algorithms have been developed to efficiently solve the Lasso problem [7, 12, 18, 6, 10, 1, 11]. However, when the dimension of feature space and the number of samples are very large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging because we may not even be able to load the data matrix into main memory. The idea of a screening test proposed by El Ghaoui et al. [8] is to first identify inactive predictors that have 0 components in the solution and then remove them from the optimization. Therefore, we can work on a reduced feature matrix to solve Lasso efficiently. In [8], the ?SAFE? rule discards xi when ?? |xTi y| < ? ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?max (2) ?max T where ?max = maxi |xi y| is the largest parameter such that the solution is nontrivial. Tibshirani et al. [21] proposed a set of strong rules which were more effective in identifying inactive predictors. 1 The basic version discards xi if |xTi y| < 2? ? ?max . However, it should be noted that the proposed strong rules might mistakenly discard active predictors, i.e., predictors which have nonzero coefficients in the solution vector. Xiang et al. [26, 25] developed a set of screening tests based on the estimation of the optimal dual solution and they have shown that the SAFE rules are in fact a special case of the general sphere test. In this paper, we develop new efficient and effective screening rules for the Lasso problem; our screening rules are exact in the sense that no active predictors will be discarded. By transforming problem (1) to its dual form, our motivation is mainly based on three geometric observations in the dual space. First, the active predictors belong to a subset of the active constraints on the optimal dual solution, which is a direct consequence of the KKT conditions. Second, the optimal dual solution is in fact the projection of the scaled response vector onto the feasible set of the dual variables. Third, because the feasible set of the dual variables is closed and convex, the projection is nonexpansive with respect to ? [2], which results in an effective estimation of its variation. Moreover, based on the basic DPP rules, we propose the ?Enhanced DPP? rules which are able to detect more inactive features than DPP. We evaluate our screening rules on real data sets from many different applications. The experimental results demonstrate that our rules are more effective in discarding inactive features than existing state-of-the-art screening rules. 2 Screening Rules for Lasso via Dual Polytope Projections In this section, we present the basics of the dual formulation of problem (1) including its geometric properties (Section 2.1). Based on the geometric properties of the dual optimal, we develop the fundamental principle in Section 2.2 (Theorem 2), which can be used to construct screening rules for Lasso. In section 2.3, we discuss the relation between dual optimal and LARS [7]. As a straightforward extension of DPP rules, we develop the sequential version of DPP (SDPP) in Section 2.4. Moreover, we present enhanced DPP rules in Section 2.5. 2.1 Basics Different from [26, 25], we do not assume y and all xi have unit length. We first transform problem (1) to its dual form (to make the paper self-contained, we provide the detailed derivation of the dual form in the supplemental n materials): o sup ? 2 1 2 kyk2 ? ?2 2 k? ? y? k22 : |xTi ?| ? 1, i = 1, 2, . . . , p (3) where ? is the dual variable. Since the feasible set, denoted by F , is the intersection of 2p halfspaces, it is a closed and convex polytope. From the objective function of the dual problem (3), it is easy to see that the optimal dual solution ?? is a feasible ? which is closest to y? . In other words, ?? is the projection of y? onto the polytope F . Mathematically, for an arbitrary vector w and a convex set C, if we define the projection function as PC (w) = argmin ku ? wk2 , (4) u?C then ?? = PF (y/?) = argmin ? ? y? 2 . (5) ??F We know that the optimal primal and dual solutions satisfy: y = X? ? + ??? and the KKT conditions for the Lasso problem (1) are  sign([? ? ]i ) if [? ? ]i 6= 0 (?? )T xi ? [?1, 1] if [? ? ]i = 0 where [?]k denotes the k th component. (6) (7) By the KKT conditions in Eq. (7), if the inner product (?? )T xi belongs to the open interval (?1, 1), then the corresponding component [? ? ]i in the solution vector ? ? (?) has to be 0. As a result, xi is an inactive predictor and can be removed from the optimization. On the other hand, let ?H(xi ) = {z: zT xi = 1} and H(xi )? = {z: zT xi ? 1} be the hyperplane and half space determined by xi respectively. Consider the dual problem (3); constraints induced by each xi are equivalent to requiring each feasible ? to lie inside the intersection of H(xi )? and H(?xi )? . If |(?? )T xi | = 1, i.e., either ?? ? ?H(xi )? or ?? ? ?H(?xi )? , we say the constraints induced by xi are active on ?? . 2 We define the ?active? set on ?? as I?? = {i: |(?? )T xi | = 1, i ? I} where I = {1, 2, . . . , p}. Otherwise, if ?? lies between ?H(xi ) and ?H(?xi ), i.e., |(?? )T xi | < 1, we can safely remove xi from the problem because [? ? ]i = 0 according to the KKT conditions in Eq. (7). Similarly, the ?inactive? set on ?? is defined as I ?? = I \ I?? . Therefore, from a geometric perspective, if we know ?? , i.e., the projection of y? onto F , the predictors in the inactive set on ?? can be discarded from the optimization. It is worthwhile to mention that inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have 0 components in the solution, are not the same as predictors in the inactive set. In fact, by the KKT conditions, predictors in the inactive set must be inactive predictors since they are guaranteed to have 0 components in the solution, but the converse may not be true. 2.2 Fundamental Screening Rules via Dual Polytope Projections Motivated by the above geometric intuitions, we next show how to find the predictors in the inactive set on ?? . To emphasize the dependence on ?, let us write ?? (?) and ? ? (?). If we know exactly where ?? (?) is, it will be trivial to find the predictors in the inactive set. Unfortunately, in most of the cases, we only have incomplete information about ?? (?) without actually solving problem (1) or (3). Suppose we know the exact ?? (?0 ) for a specific ?0 . How can we estimate ?? (?00 ) for another ?00 and its inactive set? To answer this question, we start from Eq. (5); ?? (?) is nonexpansive because it is a projection operator. For convenience, we cite the projection theorem in [2] as follows. Theorem 1. Let C be a convex set, then the projection function defined in Eq. (4) is continuous and nonexpansive, i.e., kPC (w2 ) ? PC (w1 )k2 ? kw2 ? w1 k2 , ?w2 , w1 . (8) Given ?? (?0 ), the next theorem shows how to estimate ?? (?00 ) and its inactive set for another parameter ?00 . Theorem 2. For the Lasso problem, assume we are given the solution of its dual problem ?? (?0 ) for a specific ?0 . Let ?00 be a nonnegative value different from ?0 . Then [? ? (?00 )]i = 0 if |xTi ?? (?0 )| < 1 ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?10 ? ?100 . (9) Proof. From the KKT conditions in Eq. (7), we know |xTi ?? (?00 )| < 1 ? [? ? (?00 )]i = 0. By the dual problem (3), ?? (?) is the projection of y? onto the feasible set F . According to the projection theorem [2], that is, Theorem 1, for closed convex sets, ?? (?) is continuous and 1 nonexpansive, i.e., y y ? 00 ? 0 1 k? (? ) ? ? (? )k2 ? ?00 ? ?0 2 = kyk2 ?00 ? ?0 (10) Then |xTi ?? (?00 )| ? |xTi ?? (?00 ) ? xTi ?? (?0 )| + |xTi ?? (?0 )| (11) < kxi k2 k(?? (?00 ) ? ?? (?0 ))k2 + 1 ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?100 ? ?10 1 ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?100 ? ?0 + 1 ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?100 ? ?10 = 1 which completes the proof. From theorem 2, it is easy to see our rule is quite flexible since every ?? (?0 ) would result in a new screening rule. And the smaller the gap between ?0 and ?00 , the more effective the screening rule is. By ?more effective?, we mean a stronger capability of identifying inactive predictors. As an example, let us find out ?? (?max ). Recall that ?max = maxi |xTi y|. It is easy to verify y y y ? ?max is itself feasible. Therefore the projection of ?max onto F is itself, i.e., ? (?max ) = ?max . Moreover, by noting that for ?? > ?max , we have |xTi y/?| < 1, i ? I, i.e., all predictors are in the inactive set at ?? (?), we conclude that the solution to problem (1) is 0. Combining all these together y and plugging ?? (?max ) = ?max into Eq. (9), we obtain the following screening rule. Corollary 3. DPP: For the Lasso problem (1), let ?max = maxi |xTi y|. If ? ? ?max , then [? ? ]i = 0, ?i ? I. Otherwise, [? ? (?)] i = 0 if   T y 1 . xi ?max < 1 ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?1 ? ?max Clearly, DPP is most effective when ? is close to ?max . So how can we find a new ?? (?0 ) with ?0 < ?max ? Note that Eq. (6) is in fact a natural bridge which relates the primal and dual optimal solutions. As long as we know ? ? (?0 ), it is easy to get ?? (?0 ) when ? is relatively small, e.g., LARS [7] and Homotopy [17] algorithms. 3 Table 1: Illustration of the running time for DPP screening and for solving the Lasso problem after screening. Ts : time for screening. Tl : time for solving the Lasso problem after screening. To : the total time. Entries of the response vector y are i.i.d. by a standard Gaussian. Columns of the data matrix X ? <1000?100000 are generated by xi = y + ?z where ? is a random number drawn uniformly from [0, 1]. Entries of z are i.i.d. by a standard Gaussian. ?max = 0.95 and ?/?max =0.5. Ts ( S ) Tl ( S ) To ( S ) L ASSO ? ? 103.314 DPP 0.035 10.250 10.285 DPP2 0.073 9.634 9.707 DPP5 0.152 8.399 8.552 DPP10 0.321 1.369 1.690 DPP20 0.648 0.121 0.769 Remark: Xiang et al. [26] developed a general sphere test which says that if ?? is estimated to be inside a ball k?? ? qk2 ? r, then |xTi q| < (1 ? r) ? [? ? ]i = 0. Considering the DPP rules in Theorem 2, it is equivalent to setting q = ?? (?0 ) and r = | ?10 ? ?100 |. Therefore, different from the sphere test and Dome developed in [26, 25] with the radius r fixed at the beginning, the construction of our DPP rules is equivalent to an ?r? decreasing process. Clearly, the smaller r is, the more effective the DPP rules will be. Remark: Notice that, DPP is not the same as ST1 [26] and SAFE [8], which discards the ith feature ?? if |xTi y| < ? ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?max ?max . From the perspective of the sphere test, the radius of ST1/SAFE and DPP are the same. But the centers of ST1 and DPP are y/? and y/?max respectively, which leads to different formulas, i.e., Eq. (2) and Corollary 3. 2.3 DPP Rules with LARS/Homotopy Algorithms It is well known that under mild conditions, the set {? ? (?) : ? > 0} (also know as regularization path [15]) is continuous piecewise linear [17, 7, 15]. The output of LARS or Homotopy algorithms is in fact a sequence of values like (? ? (?(0) ), ?(0) ), (? ? (?(1) ), ?(1) ), . . ., where ? ? (?(i) ) corresponds to the ith breakpoint of the regularization path {? ? (?) : ? > 0} and ?(i) s are monotonically decreasing. By Eq. (6), once we get ? ? (?(i) ), we can immediately compute ?? (?(i) ). Then according to Theorem 2, we can construct a DPP rule based on ?? (?(i) ) and ?(i) . For convenience, if the DPP rule is built based on ?? (?(i) ), we add the index i as suffix to DPP, e.g., DPP5 means it is developed based on ?? (?(5) ). It should be noted that LARS or Homotopy algorithms are very efficient to find the first few breakpoints of the regularization path and the corresponding parameters. For the first few breakpoints, the computational cost is roughly O(N p), i.e., linear with the size of the data matrix X. In Table 1, we report both the time used for screening and the time needed to solve the Lasso problem after screening. The Lasso solver is from the SLEP [14] package. From Table 1, we can see that compared with the time saved by the screening rules, the time used for screening is negligible. The efficiency of the Lasso solver is improved by DPP20 more than 130 times. In practice, DPP rules built on the first few ?? (?(i) )?s lead to more significant performance improvement than existing state-of-art screening tests. We will demonstrate the effectiveness of our DPP rules in the experiment section. As another useful property of LARS/Homotopy algorithms, it is worthwhile to mention that changes of the active set only happen at the breakpoints [17, 7, 15]. Consequently, given the parameters corresponding to a pair of adjacent breakpoints, e.g., ?(i) and ?(i+1) , the active set for ? ? (?(i+1) , ?(i) ) is the same as ? = ?(i) . Therefore, besides the sequence of breakpoints and the associated parameters (? ? (?(0) ), ?(0) ), . . . (? ? (?(k) ), ?(k) ) computed by LARS/Homotopy algorithms, we know the active set for ?? ? ?(k) . Hence we can remove the predictors in the inactive set from the optimization problem (1). This scheme has been embedded in DPP rules. Remark: Some works, e.g., [21], [8], solve several Lasso problems for different parameters to improve the screening performance. However, the DPP algorithms do not aim to solve a sequence of Lasso problems, but just to accelerate one. The LARS/Homotopy algorithms are used to find the first few breakpoints of the regularization path and the corresponding parameters, instead of solving general Lasso problems. Thus, different from [21], [8] who need to iteratively compute a screening step and a Lasso step, DPP algorithms only compute one screening step and one Lasso step. 2.4 Sequential Version of DPP Rules Motivated by the ideas of [21] and [8], we can develop a sequential version of DPP rules. In other words, if we are given a sequence of parameter values ?1 > ?2 > . . . > ?m , we can first apply DPP to discard inactive predictors for the Lasso problem (1) with parameter being ?1 . After solving 4 the reduced optimization problem for ?1 , we obtain the exact solution ? ? (?1 ). Hence by Eq. (6), we can find ?? (?1 ). According to Theorem 2, once we know the optimal dual solution ?? (?1 ), we can construct a new screening rule to identify inactive predictors for problem (1) with ? = ?2 . By repeating the above process, we obtain the sequential version of the DPP rule (SDPP). Corollary 4. SDPP: For the Lasso problem (1), suppose we are given a sequence of parameter values ?max = ?0 > ?1 > . . . > ?m . Then for any integer 0 ? k < m, we have [? ? (?k+1 )]i = 0 if ? ? (?k ) is known and the holds: following   T y?X? ? (?k ) 1 ? ?1k . xi < 1 ? kxi k2 kyk2 ?k+1 ?k Remark: There are some other related works on screening rules, e.g., Wu et al. [24] built screening rules for `1 penalized logistic regression based on the inner products between the response vector and each predictor; Tibshirani et al. [21] developed strong rules for a set of Lasso-type problems via the inner products between the residual and predictors; in [9], Fan and Lv studied screening rules for Lasso and related problems. But all of the above works may mistakenly discard predictors that have non-zero coefficients in the solution. Similar to [8, 26, 25], our DPP rules are exact in the sense that the predictors discarded by our rules are inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have zero coefficients in the solution. 2.5 Enhanced DPP Rules In this section, we show how to further improve the DPP rules. From the inequality in (9), we can see that the larger the right hand side is, the more inactive features can be detected. From the proof of Theorem 2, we need to make the right hand side of the inequality in (10) as small as possible. By noting that ?? (?0 ) = PF ( ?y0 ) and ?? (?00 ) = PF ( ?y00 ) [please refer to Eq. (5)], the inequality in (10) is in fact a direct consequence of Theorem 1 by letting C := F , w1 := ?y0 and w2 := ?y00 . On the other hand, suppose ?y0 ? / F , i.e., ?0 ? (0, ?max ). It is clear that ?y0 6= PF ( ?y0 ) = ?? (?0 ). Let y ?(t) = ?? (?0 ) + t( ?0 ? ?? (?0 )) for t ? 0, i.e., ?(t) is a point lying on the ray starting from ?? (?0 ) and pointing to the same direction as ?y0 ? ?? (?0 ). We can observe that PF (?(t)) = ?? (?0 ), i.e., the projection of ?(t) onto the set F is ?? (?0 ) as well (please refer to Lemma A in the supplement for details). By applying Theorem 1 again, we have k?? (?00 )??? (?0 )k2 = kPF ( ?y00 )?PF (?(t))k2 ? k ?y00 ??(t)k2 = kt( ?y0 ??? (?0 ))?( ?y00 ??? (?0 ))k2 . (12) Clearly, when t = 1, the inequality in (12) reduces to the one in (10). Because the inequality in (12) holds for all t ? 0, we may get a tighter bound by k?? (?00 ) ? ?? (?0 )k2 ? min ktv1 ? v2 k2 , (13) t?0 where v1 = ?y0 ? ?? (?0 ) and v2 = ?y00 ? ?? (?0 ). When ?0 = ?max , we can set v1 = sign(xT? y)x? where x? := argmaxxi |xTi y| (please refer to Lemma B in the supplement for details). The minimization problem on the right hand side of the inequality (13) can be easily solved as follows: ( kv if hv1 , v2 i < 0, 2 k2 , 0 00 min ktv1 ? v2 k2 = ?(? , ? ) = (14) hv1 ,v2 i t?0 v2 ? kv1 k2 v1 , otherwise. 2 2 Similar to Theorem 2, we have the following result: Theorem 5. For the Lasso problem, assume we are given the solution of its dual problem ?? (?0 ) for a specific ?0 . Let ?00 be a nonnegative value different from ?0 . Then [? ? (?00 )]i = 0 if |xTi ?? (?0 )| < 1 ? kxi k2 ?(?0 , ?00 ). (15) As we explained above, the right hand side of the inequality (15) is no less than that of the inequality (9). Thus, the enhanced DPP is able to detect more inactive features than DPP. The analogues of Corollaries 3 and 4 can be easily derived as well. Corollary 6. DPP? : For the Lasso problem (1), let ?max = maxi |xTi y|. If ? ? ?max , then [? ? ]i = 0, ?i ? I. Otherwise, [? ? (?)]i = 0 if the following holds: T y xi ?max < 1 ? kxi k2 ?(?max , ?). Corollary 7. SDPP? : For the Lasso problem (1), suppose we are given a sequence of parameter values ?max = ?0 > ?1 > . . . > ?m . Then for any integer 0 ? k < m, we have [? ? (?k+1 )]i = 0 5 if ? ? (?k ) is known and the following holds: T y?X? ? (?k ) xi < 1 ? kxi k2 ?(?k , ?k+1 ). ?k To simplify notations, we denote the enhanced DPP and SDPP by DPP? and SDPP? respectively. 3 Extensions to Group Lasso To demonstrate the flexibility of DPP rules, we extend our idea to the group Lasso problem [27]: inf p 21 ky ? XG g=1 ??< Xg ?g k22 + ? XG g=1 ? ng k?g k2 , (16) PG where Xg ? <N ?ng is the data matrix for the gth group and p = g=1 ng . The corresponding dual problem of (16) is (seendetailed derivation in the supplemental materials): o ? y 2 2 T 1 ?2 sup kyk ? k? ? k : kX ?k ? n , g = 1, 2, . . . , G (17) 2 g 2 g 2 2 ? 2 ? Similar to the Lasso problem, the primal and dual optimal solutions of the group Lasso satisfy: y= and the KKT conditions are: XG g=1 (? ? T (? ) Xg ? ? Xg ?g? + ??? (18) ?? ng k? ?gk2 if ?g? 6= 0 g ng u, kuk2 ? 1 if ?g? = 0 ? ? T for g = 1, 2, . . . , G. Clearly, if k(? ) Xg k2 < ng , we can conclude that ?g? = 0. (19) Consider problem (17). It is easy to see that the dual optimal ?? is the projection of y? onto the ? feasible set. For each g, the constraint kXTg ?k2 ? ng confines ? to an ellipsoid which is closed and convex. Therefore, the feasible set of the dual problem (17) is the intersection of ellipsoids and thus closed and convex. Hence ?? (?) is also nonexpansive for the group lasso problem. Similar to Theorem 2, we can readily develop the following theorem for group Lasso. Theorem 8. For the group Lasso problem, assume we are given the solution of its dual problem ?? (?0 ) for a specific ?0 . Let ?00 be a nonnegative value different from ?0 . Then ?g? (?00 ) = 0 if ? (20) kXTg ?? (?0 )k2 < ng ? kXg kF kyk2 ?10 ? ?100 ? y Similar to the Lasso problem, let ?max = maxg kXTg yk2 / ng , we can see that ?max is itself feasible, and ?max is the largest parameter such that problem (16) has a nonzero solution. Clearly, y . Similar to DPP and SDPP, we can construct GDPP and SGDPP for group Lasso. ?? (?max ) = ?max ? Corollary 9. GDPP: For the group Lasso problem (16), let ?max = maxg kXTg yk2 / ng . If ? ? ? ? ?max , ?g (?) = 0, ?g = 1, 2, . . . , G. Otherwise, we have ?g (?) = 0 if the following holds:   ? T y 1 . (21) Xg ?max < ng ? kXg kF kyk2 ?1 ? ?max 2 Corollary 10. SGDPP: For the group Lasso problem (16), suppose we are given a sequence of parameter values ?max = ?0 > ?1 > . . . > ?m . For any integer 0 ? k < m, we have ?g? (?k+1 ) = 0 if ? ? (?k ) is known following holds: and the   ? T y?PG ? g=1 Xg ?g (?k ) 1 1 Xg < n ? kX k kyk ? (22) g g F 2 ?k ?k+1 ?k . 2 Remark: Similar to DPP? , we can develop the enhanced GDPP by simply replacing the term kyk2 (1/? ? 1/?max ) on the right hand side of the inequality (21) with ?(?max , ?). Notice that, ? to compute ?(?max , ?), we set v1 = X? (X? )T y where X? = argmaxXg kXTg yk2 / ng (please ? refer to Lemma C in the supplement for details). The analogs of SDPP , that is, SGDPP? , can be obtained by replacing the term kyk2 (1/?k+1 ? 1/?k ) on the right hand side of the inequality (22) with ?(?k , ?k+1 ). 4 Experiments In section 4.1, we first evaluate the DPP and DPP? rules on both real and synthetic data. We then compare the performance of DPP with Dome (see [25, 26]) which achieves state-of-art performance for the Lasso problem among exact screening rules [25]. We evaluate GDPP and SGDPP for the group Lasso problem on three synthetic data sets in section 4.2. We are not aware of any ?exact? screening rules for the group Lasso problem at this point. 6 (a) MNIST-DPP2/DPP? 2 (b) MNIST-DPP5/DPP? 5 (c) COIL-DPP2/DPP? 2 (d) COIL-DPP5/DPP? 5 Figure 1: Comparison of DPP and DPP? rules on the MNIST and COIL data sets. To measure the performance of our screening rules, we compute the rejection rate, i.e., the ratio between the number of predictors discarded by screening rules and the actual number of zero predictors in the ground truth. Because the DPP rules are exact, i.e., no active predictors will be mistakenly discarded, the rejection rate will be less than one. For SAFE and Dome, it is not straightforward to extend them to the group Lasso problem. Similarly to previous works [26], we do not report the computational time saved by screening because it can be easily computed from the rejection ratio. Specifically, if the Lasso solver is linear in terms of the size of the data matrix X, a K% rejection of the data can save K% computational time. The general experiment settings are as follows. For each data set, after we construct the data matrix X and the response y, we run the screening rules along a sequence of 100 values equally spaced on the ?/?max scale from 0 to 1. We repeat the procedure 100 times and report the average performance at each of the 100 values of ?/?max . All of the screening rules are implemented in Matlab. The experiments are carried out on a Intel(R) (i7-2600) 3.4Ghz processor. 4.1 DPPs and DPP? s for the Lasso Problem In this experiment, we first compare the performance of the proposed DPP rules with the enhanced DPP rules (DPP? ) on (a) the MNIST handwritten digit data set [13]; (b) the COIL rotational image data set [16] in Section 4.1.1. We show that the DPP? rules are more effective in identifying inactive features than the DPP rules. This demonstrate our theoretical results in Section 2.5. Then we evaluate the DPP? /SDPP? rules and Dome on (c) the ADNI data set; (d) the Olivetti Faces data set [19]; (e) Yahoo web pages data sets [22] and (f) a synthetic data set whose entries are i.i.d. by a standard Gaussian. 4.1.1 Comparison of DPP and DPP? As we explain in Section 2.5, all inactive feature detected by the DPP rules can also be detected by the DPP? rules. But conversely, it is not necessarily true. To demonstrate the advantage of the DPP? rules, we run DPP2, DPP? 2, DPP5 and DPP? 5 on the MNIST and COIL data sets. a) The MNIST data set contains grey images of scanned handwritten digits, including 60, 000 for training and 10, 000 for testing. The dimension of each image is 28 ? 28. Each time, we first randomly select 100 images for each digit (and in total we have 1000 images) and get a data matrix X ? <784?1000 . Then we randomly pick an image as the response y ? <784 . b) The COIL data set includes 100 objects, each of which has 72 color images with 128?128 pixels. The images that belong to the same object are taken every 5 degree by rotating the object. We use the images of object 10. Each time, we randomly pick one of the images as the response vector y ? <49152 and use all the remaining ones to construct the data matrix X ? <49152?71 . The average ?max for the so cultured MNIST and the COIL data sets are 0.837 and 0.986. Clearly, the predictors in the data sets are high correlated. From Figure 1, we observe that DPP? 2 significantly outperforms DPP2 for both data sets, especially when ?/?max is small. We also observe the same pattern for DPP5 and DPP? 5, verifying the claims about DPP? made in the paper. Thus, in the following experiments, we only report the performance of DPP? and the competing algorithm Dome. 4.1.2 Comparison of DPP? /SDPP? and Dome In this experiment, we compare DPP? /SDPP? rules with Dome. We only report the performance of DPP? 5 and DPP? 10 among the family of DPP? rules on the following four data sets. c) The Alzheimer?s disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI; available at www.loni.ucla.edu/ADNI) studies the disease progression of Alzheimer?s. The ADNI data set includes 434 patients with 306 features extracted from their baseline MRI scans. Each time we randomly select 90% samples to construct the data matrix X ? <391?306 . The response y is the patients? MMSE cognitive scores [29]. d) The Olivetti faces data set includes 400 grey scale face images of size 64 ? 64 for 40 people (10 for each). Each time, we randomly take one of the images as the response vector y ? <4096 7 (a) ADNI (b) Olivetti (c) Yahoo-Computers (d) Synthetic Figure 2: Comparison of DPP? /SDPP? rules and Dome on three real data sets, Yahoo computers data set, ADNI data set, Olivetti face data set and one synthetic data set. (a) 20 groups (b) 50 groups (c) 100 groups Figure 3: Performance of GDPP and SGDPP applied to three synthetic data sets. and the data matrix X ? <4096?399 is constructed by the left ones. e) The Yahoo data sets include 11 top-level categories such as Computers, Education, Health, Recreation, and Science etc. Each category is further divided into a set of subcategories. Each time, we construct a balanced binary classification data set from the topic of Computers. We choose samples from one subcategory as the positive class and randomly sample an equal number of samples from the rest of subcategories as the negative class. The size of the data matrix is 876 ? 25259 and the response vector is the binary label of the samples. f) For the synthetic data set X ? <100?5000 and the response vector y ? <100 , all of the entries are i.i.d. by a standard Gaussian. The average ?max of the above three data sets are 0.7273, 0.989, 0.914, and 0.371 respectively. The predictors in ADNI, Yahoo-Computers and Olivetti data sets are highly correlated as indicated by the average ?max . In contrast with the real data sets, the average ?max of the synthetic data is small. As noted in [26, 25], Dome is very effective in discarding inactive features when ?max is large. From Fig. 2, we observe that Dome performs much better on the real data sets compared to the synthetic data. However, the proposed rules are able to identify far more inactive features than Dome on both real and synthetic data, even for the cases in which ?max is small. 4.2 GDPPs for the Group Lasso Problem We apply GDPPs to three synthetic data sets. The entries of data matrix X ? <100?1000 and the response vector y are generated i.i.d. from the standard Gaussian distribution. For each of the cases, we randomly divided X into 20, 50, and 100 groups. We compare the performance of GDPP and SGDPP along a sequence of 100 parameter values equally spaced on the ?/?max scale. We repeat the above procedure 100 times for each of the cases and report the average performance. The average ?max values are 0.136, 0.167, and 0.219 respectively. As shown in Fig. 3, it is expected that SGDPP significantly outperforms GDPP which only makes use of the information of the dual optimal solution at a single point. For more discussions, please refer to the supplement. 5 Conclusion In this paper, we develop new screening rules for the Lasso problem by making use of the nonexpansiveness of the projection operator with respect to a closed convex set. Our new methods, i.e., DPP rules, are able to effectively identify inactive predictors of the Lasso problem, thus greatly reducing the size of the optimization problem. Moreover, we further improve DPP rules and propose the enhanced DPP rules, that is, the DPP? rules, which are even more effective in discarding inactive predictors than DPP rules. The idea of DPP and DPP? rules can be easily generalized to screen the inactive groups of the group Lasso problem. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed rules. Moreover, DPP and DPP? rules can be combined with any Lasso solver as a speedup tool. In the future, we plan to generalize our idea to other sparse formulations consisting of more general structured sparse penalties, e.g., tree/graph Lasso. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by NIH (LM010730) and NSF (IIS-0953662, CCF-1025177). 8 References [1] S. R. Becker, E. Cand`es, and M. Grant. Templates for convex cone problems with applications to sparse signal recovery. Technical report, Standford University, 2010. [2] D. P. Bertsekas. Convex Analysis and Optimization. Athena Scientific, 2003. [3] A. Bruckstein, D. Donoho, and M. Elad. From sparse solutions of systems of equations to sparse modeling of signals and images. SIAM Review, 51:34?81, 2009. [4] E. Cand`es. Compressive sampling. In Proceedings of the International Congress of Mathematics, 2006. [5] S. S. Chen, D. L. Donoho, and M. A. Saunders. Atomic decomposition by basis pursuit. SIAM Review, 43:129?159, 2001. [6] D. L. Donoho and Y. Tsaig. Fast solution of l-1 norm minimization problems when the solution may be sparse. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 54:4789?4812, 2008. [7] B. Efron, T. Hastie, I. Johnstone, and R. Tibshirani. Least angle regression. Annals of Statistics, 32:407? 499, 2004. [8] L. El Ghaoui, V. Viallon, and T. Rabbani. Safe feature elimination in sparse supervised learning. Pacific Journal of Optimization, 8:667?698, 2012. [9] J. Fan and J. Lv. Sure independence screening for ultrahigh dimensional feature spaces. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 70:849?911, 2008. [10] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, H. H?efling, and R. Tibshirani. Pathwise coordinate optimization. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1:302?332, 2007. [11] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent. Journal of Statistical Software, 33:1?22, 2010. [12] S. J. Kim, K. Koh, M. Lustig, S. Boyd, and D. Gorinevsky. An interior-point method for large scale l1-regularized least squares. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Signal Processing, 1:606?617, 2007. [13] Y. Lecun, L. Bottou, Y. Bengio, and P. Haffner. Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition. In Proceedings of the IEEE, 1998. [14] J. Liu, S. Ji, and J. Ye. SLEP: Sparse Learning with Efficient Projections. Arizona State University, 2009. [15] J. Mairal and B. Yu. Complexity analysis of the lasso regularization path. In ICML, 2012. [16] S. A. Nene, S. K. Nayar, and H. Murase. Columbia object image library (coil). Technical report, No. CUCS-006-96, Dept. Comp. Science, Columbia University, 1996. [17] M. R. Osborne, B. Presnell, and B. A. Turlach. A new approach to variable selection in least squares problems. IMA Journal of Numerical Analysis, 20:389?404, 2000. [18] M. Y. Park and T. Hastie. L1-regularized path algorithm for generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 69:659?677, 2007. [19] F. Samaria and A. Harter. Parameterisation of a stochastic model for human face identification. In Proceedings of 2nd IEEE Workshop on Applications of Computer Vision, 1994. [20] R. Tibshirani. Regression shringkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 58:267?288, 1996. [21] R. Tibshirani, J. Bien, J. Friedman, T. Hastie, N. Simon, J. Taylor, and R. Tibshirani. Strong rules for discarding predictors in lasso-type problems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 74:245? 266, 2012. [22] N. Ueda and K. Saito. Parametric mixture models for multi-labeled text. Advances in neural information processing systems, 15:721?728, 2002. [23] J. Wright, Y. Ma, J. Mairal, G. Sapiro, T. Huang, and S. Yan. Sparse representation for computer vision and pattern recognition. In Proceedings of IEEE, 2010. [24] T. T. Wu, Y. F. Chen, T. Hastie, E. Sobel, and K. Lange. Genomewide association analysis by lasso penalized logistic regression. Bioinformatics, 25:714?721, 2009. [25] Z. J. Xiang and P. J. Ramadge. Fast lasso screening tests based on correlations. In IEEE ICASSP, 2012. [26] Z. J. Xiang, H. Xu, and P. J. Ramadge. Learning sparse representation of high dimensional data on large scale dictionaries. In NIPS, 2011. [27] M. Yuan and Y. Lin. Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 68:49?67, 2006. [28] P. Zhao and B. Yu. On model selection consistency of lasso. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:2541?2563, 2006. [29] J. Zhou, L. Yuan, J. Liu, and J. Ye. A multi-task learning formulation for predicting disease progression. In KDD, pages 814?822. ACM, 2011. 9
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A Kernel Test for Three-Variable Interactions Dino Sejdinovic, Arthur Gretton Gatsby Unit, CSML, UCL, UK {dino.sejdinovic, arthur.gretton}@gmail.com Wicher Bergsma Department of Statistics, LSE, UK [email protected] Abstract We introduce kernel nonparametric tests for Lancaster three-variable interaction and for total independence, using embeddings of signed measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resulting test statistics are straightforward to compute, and are used in powerful interaction tests, which are consistent against all alternatives for a large family of reproducing kernels. We show the Lancaster test to be sensitive to cases where two independent causes individually have weak influence on a third dependent variable, but their combined effect has a strong influence. This makes the Lancaster test especially suited to finding structure in directed graphical models, where it outperforms competing nonparametric tests in detecting such V-structures. 1 Introduction The problem of nonparametric testing of interaction between variables has been widely treated in the machine learning and statistics literature. Much of the work in this area focuses on measuring or testing pairwise interaction: for instance, the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) or Distance Covariance [1, 2, 3], kernel canonical correlation [4, 5, 6], and mutual information [7]. In cases where more than two variables interact, however, the questions we can ask about their interaction become significantly more involved. The simplest case we might consider is whether the Qd variables are mutually independent, PX = i=1 PXi , as considered in Rd by [8]. This is already a more general question than pairwise independence, since pairwise independence does not imply total (mutual) independence, while the implication holds in the other direction. For example, if X and Y are i.i.d. uniform on {?1, 1}, then (X, Y, XY ) is a pairwise independent but mutually dependent triplet [9]. Tests of total and pairwise independence are insufficient, however, since they do not rule out all third order factorizations of the joint distribution. An important class of high order interactions occurs when the simultaneous effect of two variables on a third may not be additive. In particular, it may be possible that X ? ? Z and Y ? ? Z, whereas ? ((X, Y ) ? ? Z) (for example, neither adding sugar to coffee nor stirring the coffee individually have an effect on its sweetness but the joint presence of the two does). In addition, study of three-variable interactions can elucidate certain switching mechanisms between positive and negative correlation of two genes expressions, as controlled by a third gene [10]. The presence of such interactions is typically tested using some form of analysis of variance (ANOVA) model which includes additional interaction terms, such as products of individual variables. Since each such additional term requires a new hypothesis test, this increases the risk that some hypothesis test will produce a false positive by chance. Therefore, a test that is able to directly detect the presence of any kind of higher-order interaction would be of a broad interest in statistical modeling. In the present work, we provide to our knowledge the first nonparametric test for three-variable interaction. This work generalizes the HSIC test of pairwise independence, and has as its test statistic the norm 1 of an embedding of an appropriate signed measure to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). When the statistic is non-zero, all third order factorizations can be ruled out. Moreover, this test is applicable to the cases where X, Y and Z are themselves multivariate objects, and may take values in non-Euclidean or structured domains.1 One important application of interaction measures is in learning structure for graphical models. If the graphical model is assumed to be Gaussian, then second order interaction statistics may be used to construct an undirected graph [11, 12]. When the interactions are non-Gaussian, however, other approaches are brought to bear. An alternative approach to structure learning is to employ conditional independence tests. In the PC algorithm [13, 14, 15], a V-structure (a directed graphical model with two independent parents pointing to a single child) is detected when an independence test between the parent variables accepts the null hypothesis, while a test of dependence of the parents conditioned on the child rejects the null hypothesis. The PC algorithm gives a correct equivalence class of structures subject to the causal Markov and faithfulness assumptions, in the absence of hidden common causes. The original implementations of the PC algorithm rely on partial correlations for testing, and assume Gaussianity. A number of algorithms have since extended the basic PC algorithm to arbitrary probability distributions over multivariate random variables [16, 17, 18], by using nonparametric kernel independence tests [19] and conditional dependence tests [20, 18]. We observe that our Lancaster interaction based test provides a strong alternative to the conditional dependence testing approach, and is seen to outperform earlier approaches in detecting cases where independent parent variables weakly influence the child variable when considered individually, but have a strong combined influence. We begin our presentation in Section 2 with a definition of interaction measures, these being the signed measures we will embed in an RKHS. We cover this embedding procedure in Section 3. We then proceed in Section 4 to define pairwise and three way interactions. We describe a statistic to test mutual independence for more than three variables, and provide a brief overview of the more complex high-order interactions that may be observed when four or more variables are considered. Finally, we provide experimental benchmarks in Section 5. 2 Interaction Measure An interaction measure [21, 22] associated to a multidimensional probability distribution P of a random vector (X1 , . . . , XD ) taking values in the product space X1 ?? ? ??XD is a signed measure ?P that vanishes whenever P can be factorised in a non-trivial way as a product of its (possibly multivariate) marginal distributions. For the cases D = 2, 3 the correct interaction measure coincides with the the notion introduced by Lancaster [21] as a formal product ?L P = D Y i=1  ? ? PXi , PX i (1) QD? ? signifies the joint probability distribution PXi1 ???Xi ? of a subvector where each product j=1 PX ij D  Xi1 , . . . , XiD? . We will term the signed measure in (1) the Lancaster interaction measure. In the case of a bivariate distribution, the Lancaster interaction measure is simply the difference between the joint probability distribution and the product of the marginal distributions (the only possible non-trivial factorization for D = 2), ?L P = PXY ? PX PY , while in the case D = 3, we obtain ?L P = PXY Z ? PXY PZ ? PY Z PX ? PXZ PY + 2PX PY PZ . (2) It is readily checked that (X, Y ) ? ? Z ? (X, Z) ? ? Y ? (Y, Z) ? ?X ? ?L P = 0. (3) For D > 3, however, (1) does not capture all possible factorizations of the joint distribution, e.g., for D = 4, it need not vanish if (X1 , X2 ) ? ? (X3 , X4 ), but X1 and X2 are dependent and X3 and X4 are dependent. Streitberg [22] corrected this definition using a more complicated construction with the M?obius function on the lattice of partitions, which we describe in Section 4.3. In this 1 As the reader might imagine, the situation becomes more complex again when four or more variables interact simultaneously; we provide a brief technical overview in Section 4.3. 2 work, however, we will focus on the case of three variables and formulate interaction tests based on embedding of (2) into an RKHS. The implication (3) states that the presence of Lancaster interaction rules out the possibility of any factorization of the joint distribution, but the converse is not generally true; see Appendix C for details. In addition, it is important to note the distinction between the absence of Lancaster interaction and the total (mutual) independence of (X, Y, Z), i.e., PXY Z = PX PY PZ . While total independence implies the absence of Lancaster interaction, the signed measure ?tot P = PXY Z ?PX PY PZ associated to the total (mutual) independence of (X, Y, Z) does not vanish if, e.g., (X, Y ) ? ? Z, but X and Y are dependent. In this contribution, we construct the non-parametric test for the hypothesis ?L P = 0 (no Lancaster interaction), as well as the non-parametric test for the hypothesis ?tot P = 0 (total independence), based on the embeddings of the corresponding signed measures ?L P and ?tot P into an RKHS. Both tests are particularly suited to the cases where X, Y and Z take values in a high-dimensional space, and, moreover, they remain valid for a variety of non-Euclidean and structured domains, i.e., for all topological spaces where it is possible to construct a valid positive definite function; see [23] for details. In the case of total independence testing, our approach can be viewed as a generalization of the tests proposed in [24] based on the empirical characteristic functions. 3 Kernel Embeddings We review the embedding of signed measures to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The RKHS norms of such embeddings will then serve as our test statistics. Let Z be a topological space. According to the Moore-Aronszajn theorem [25, p. 19], for every symmetric, positive definite function (henceforth kernel) k : Z ? Z ? R, there is an associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) Hk of real-valued functions on Z with reproducing kernel k. The map ? : Z ? Hk , ? : z 7? k(?, z) is called the canonical feature map or the Aronszajn map of k. Denote by M(Z) the Banach space of all finite signed Borel measures on Z. The notion of a feature map can then be extended to kernel embeddings of elements of M(Z) [25, Chapter 4]. Definition 1. (Kernel embedding) Let k be a kernel ? on Z, and ? ? M(Z). The kernel embedding of ? into the RKHS Hk is ?k (?) ? Hk such that f (z)d?(z) = hf, ?k (?)iHk for all f ? Hk . ? Alternatively, the kernel embedding can be defined by the Bochner integral ?k (?) = k(?, z) d?(z). If a measurable kernel k is a bounded function, it is straightforward to show using the Riesz representation theorem that ?k (?) exists for all ? ? M(Z).2 For many interesting bounded kernels k, including the Gaussian, Laplacian and inverse multiquadratics, the embedding ?k : M(Z) ? Hk is injective. Such kernels are said to be integrally strictly positive definite (ISPD) [26, p. 4]. A related but weaker notion is that of a characteristic kernel [20, 27], which requires the kernel embedding to be injective only on the set M1+ (Z) of probability measures. In the case that k is ISPD, since Hk is a Hilbert space, we can introduce a notion of an inner product between two signed measures ?, ? ? ? M(Z), ? ? ? hh?, ? iik := h?k (?), ?k (? )iHk = k(z, z ? )d?(z)d? ? (z ? ). Since ?k is injective, this is a valid inner product and induces a norm on M(Z), for which 1/2 k?kk = hh?, ?iik = 0 if and only if ? = 0. This fact has been used extensively in the literature to formulate: (a) a nonparametric two-sample test based on estimation of maximum mean discrepancy i.i.d. n m i.i.d. kP ? Qkk , for samples {Xi }i=1 ? P , {Yi }i=1 ? Q [28] and (b) a nonparametric indepenn i.i.d. dence test based on estimation of kPXY ? PX PY kk?l , for a joint sample {(Xi , Yi )}i=1 ? PXY [19] (the latter is also called a Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion), with kernel k ? l on the product space defined as k(x, x? )l(y, y ? ). When a bounded characteristic kernel is used, the above tests are consistent against all alternatives, and their alternative interpretation is as a generalization [29, 3] of energy distance [30, 31] and distance covariance [2, 32]. 2 Unbounded kernels can also be considered, however [3]. In this case, one can still study embeddings 1/2 1/2 of the signed measures Mk (Z) ? M(Z), which satisfy a finite moment condition, i.e., Mk (Z) = n o ? 1/2 ? ? M(Z) : k (z, z) d|?|(z) < ? . 3 Table 1: V -statistic estimates of hh?, ? ? iik?l in the two-variable case ?\? ? PXY PX PY PXY 1 n2 PX PY (K ? L)++ 1 (KL)++ n3 1 K++ L++ n4 In this article, we extend this approach to the three-variable case, and formulate tests for both the Lancaster interaction and for the total independence, using simple consistent estimators of k?L P kk?l?m and k?tot P kk?l?m respectively, which we describe in the next Section. Using the same arguments as in the tests of [28, 19], these tests are also consistent against all alternatives as long as ISPD kernels are used. 4 Interaction Tests Notational remarks: Throughout the paper, ? denotes an Hadamard (entrywise) product. Let A be an n ? n matrix, and K a symmetric n ? n matrix. Pn We will fix the following notational conventions: 1 denotes an n ? 1 column of ones; A = +j i=1 Aij denotes the sum of all elements of the j-th Pn column of A; Ai+ = A denotes the sum of all elements of the i-th row of A; A++ = ij j=1 Pn Pn A denotes the sum of all elements of A; K+ = 11? K, i.e., [K+ ]ij = K+j = Kj+ , ij i=1   ?j=1 and K+ ij = Ki+ = K+i . 4.1 Two-Variable (Independence) Test We provide a short overview of the kernel independence test of [19], which we write as the RKHS norm of the embedding of a signed measure. While this material is not new (it appears in [28, Section 7.4]), it will help define how to proceed when a third variable is introduced, and the signed measures 2 become more involved. We begin by expanding the squared RKHS norm kPXY ? PX PY kk?l as inner products, and applying the reproducing property, 2 kPXY ? PX PY kk?l = EXY EX ? Y ? k(X, X ? )l(Y, Y ? ) + EX EX ? k(X, X ? )EY EY ? l(Y, Y ? ) ? 2EX ? Y ? [EX k(X, X ? )EY l(Y, Y ? )] , (4) where (X, Y ) and (X ? , Y ? ) are independent copies of random variables on X ? Y with distribution PXY . n i.i.d. 2 Given a joint sample {(Xi , Yi )}i=1 ? PXY , an empirical estimator of kPXY ? PX PY kk?l is obtained by substituting corresponding empirical means into (4), which can be represented using Gram matrices K and L (Kij = k(Xi , Xj ), Lij = l(Yi , Yj )), n n X X 1 ? X ? Y ? k(X, X ? )l(Y, Y ? ) = 1 ? XY E Kab Lab = 2 (K ? L)++ , E n2 a=1 n b=1 n X n X n X n X 1 ? Y ? l(Y, Y ? ) = 1 ?Y E ? X ? k(X, X ? )E ?X E E Kab Lcd = 4 K++ L++ , 4 n a=1 n c=1 b=1 d=1 n X n X n h i X 1 ? X k(X, X ? )E ? Y l(Y, Y ? ) = 1 ? X?Y ? E Kac Lbc = 3 (KL)++ . E n3 a=1 n c=1 b=1 Since these are V-statistics [33, Ch. 5], there is a bias of OP (n?1 ); U-statistics may be used if an unbiased estimate is needed. Each of the terms above corresponds to an estimate of an inner product hh?, ? ? iik?l for probability measures ? and ? ? taking values in {PXY , PX PY }, as summarized in Table 1. Even though the second and third terms involve triple and quadruple sums, each of the empirical means can be computed using sums of all terms of certain matrices, where the dominant computational cost is in computing the matrix product KL. In fact, the overall estimator can be 4 Table 2: V -statistic estimates of hh?, ? ? iik?l?m in the three-variable case ?\? ? nPXY Z nPXY Z (K ? L ? M )++ n2 PXY PZ n2 PXY PZ n2 PXZ PY n2 PY Z PX n3 PX PY PZ ((K ? L) M )++ ((K ? M ) L)++ ((M ? L) K)++ tr(K+ ? L+ ? M+ ) (K ? L)++ M++ (M KL)++ (KLM )++ (KL)++ M++ (K ? M )++ L++ (KM L)++ (KM )++ L++ n2 PXZ PY n2 PY Z PX (L ? M )++ K++ n3 PX PY PZ (LM )++ K++ K++ L++ M++ 2 computed in an even simpler form (see Proposition 9 in Appendix F), as P?XY ? P?X P?Y 1 n2 k?l 1 ? n 11 = is the centering matrix. Note that by the idempotence of (K ? HLH)++ , where H = I ? H, we also have that (K ? HLH)++ = (HKH ? HLH)++ . In the rest of the paper, for any Gram ? When three variables are matrix K, we will denote its corresponding centered matrix HKH by K. present, a two-variable test already allows us to determine whether for instance (X, Y ) ? ? Z, i.e., whether PXY Z = PXY PZ . It is sufficient to treat (X, Y ) as a single variable on the product space X ? Y, with the product kernel k ? l. Then,  the Grammatrix associated to (X, Y ) is simply K ? L, ? .3 What is not obvious, however, is if a and the corresponding V -statistic is n12 K ? L ? M ++ V-statistic for the Lancaster interaction (which can be thought of as a surrogate for the composite hypothesis of various factorizations) can be obtained in a similar form. We will address this question in the next section. 4.2 Three-Variable Tests As in the two-variable case, it suffices to derive V-statistics for inner products hh?, ? ? iik?l?m , where ? and ? ? take values in all possible combinations of the joint and the products of the marginals, i.e., PXY Z , PXY PZ , etc. Again, it is easy to see that these can be expressed as certain expectations of kernel functions, and thereby can be calculated by an appropriate manipulation of the three Gram matrices. We summarize the resulting expressions in Table 2 - their derivation is a tedious but straightforward linear algebra exercise. For compactness, the appropriate normalizing terms are moved inside the measures considered. Based on the individual RKHS inner product estimators, we can now easily derive estimators for various signed measures arising as linear combinations of PXY Z , PXY PZ , and so on. The first such measure is an ?incomplete? Lancaster interaction measure ?(Z) P = PXY Z +PX PY PZ ?PY Z PX ? PXZ PY , which vanishes if (Y, Z) ? ? X or (X, Z) ? ? Y , but not necessarily if (X, Y ) ? ? Z. We obtain the following result for the empirical measure P? . 2   ? ?L ??M Proposition 2 (Incomplete Lancaster interaction). ?(Z) P? = n12 K . k?l?m ++ Analogous expressions hold for ?(X) P? and ?(Y ) P? . Unlike in the two-variable case where either matrix or both can be centered, centering of each matrix in the three-variable case has a different meaning. In particular, one requires centering of all three kernel matrices to perform a ?complete? Lancaster interaction test, as given by the following Proposition. 2   ? ?L ??M ? . Proposition 3 (Lancaster interaction). ?L P? = n12 K k?l?m ++ The proofs of these Propositions are given in Appendix A. We summarize various hypotheses and the associated V-statistics in the Appendix B. As we will demonstrate in the experiments in Section 5, while particularly useful for testing the factorization hypothesis, i.e., for (X, Y ) ? ? Z ? (X, Z) ? ? 2 Y ? (Y, Z) ? ? X, the statistic ?L P? can also be used for powerful tests of either the k?l?m individual hypotheses (Y, Z) ? ? X, (X, Z) ? ? Y , or (X, Y ) ? ? Z, or for total independence testing, 3 In general, however, this approach would require some care since, e.g., X and Y could be measured on very different scales, and the choice of kernels k and l needs to take this into account. 5 i.e., PXY Z = PX PY PZ , as it vanishes in all of these cases. The null distribution under each of these hypotheses can be estimated using a standard permutation-based approach described in Appendix D. Another way to obtain the Lancaster interaction statistic is as the RKHS norm of the joint ?central moment? ?XY Z = EXY Z [(kX ? ?X ) ? (lY ? ?Y ) ? (mZ ? ?Z )] of RKHS-valued random variables kX , lY and mZ (understood as an element of the tensor RKHS Hk ? Hl ? Hm ). This is related to a classical characterization of the Lancaster interaction [21, Ch. XII]: there is no Lancaster interaction between X, Y and Z if and only if cov [f (X), g(Y ), h(Z)] = 0 for all L2 functions f , g and h. There is an analogous result in our case (proof is given in Appendix A), which states Proposition 4. k?L P kk?l?m = 0 if and only if cov [f (X), g(Y ), h(Z)] = 0 for all f ? Hk , g ? Hl , h ? Hm . And finally, we give an estimator of the RKHS norm of the total independence measure ?tot P . Proposition 5 (Total independence). Let ?tot P? = P?XY Z ? P?X P?Y P?Z . Then: 2 1 2 1 = (K ? L ? M )++ ? 4 tr(K+ ? L+ ? M+ ) + 6 K++ L++ M++ . ?tot P? n2 n n k?l?m The proof follows simply from reading off the corresponding inner-product V-statistics from the Table 2. While the test statistic for total independence has a somewhat more complicated form than that of Lancaster interaction, it can also be computed in quadratic time. 4.3 Interaction for D > 3 Streitberg?s correction of the interaction measure for D > 3 has the form X ?S P = (?1)|?|?1 (|?| ? 1)!J? P, (5) ? where the sum is taken over all partitions of the set {1, 2, . . . , n}, |?| denotes the size of the partition (number of blocks), and J? : P 7? P? is the partition operator on probability measures, which for aQfixed partition ? = ?1 |?2 | . . . |?r maps the probability measure P to the product measure P? = r j=1 P?j , where P?j is the marginal distribution of the subvector (Xi : i ? ?j ) . The coefficients correspond to the M?obius inversion on the partition lattice [34]. While the Lancaster interaction has an interpretation in terms of joint central moments, Streitberg?s correction corresponds to joint   (1) cumulants [22, Section 4]. Therefore, a central moment expression like EX1 ...Xn [ kX1 ? ?X1 ?   (n) ? ? ? ? kXn ? ?Xn ] does not capture the correct notion of the interaction measure. Thus, while one can in principle construct RKHS embeddings of higher-order interaction measures, and compute RKHS norms using a calculus of V -statistics and Gram-matrices analogous to that of Table 2, it does not seem possible to avoid summing over all partitions when computing the corresponding statistics, yielding a computationally prohibitive approach in general. This can be viewed by analogy with the scalar case, where it is well known that the second and third cumulants coincide with the second and third central moments, whereas the higher order cumulants are neither moments nor central moments, but some other polynomials of the moments. 4.4 Total independence for D > 3 In general, the test statistic for total independence in the D-variable case is 2 D n n D n D n Y 1 X X Y (i) 2 X Y X (i) ? ? P = K ? ? P Kab X1:D Xi ab ND (i) n2 a=1 nD+1 a=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 b=1 k + D n n 1 YXX n2D b=1 (i) Kab . i=1 a=1 b=1 A similar statistic for total independence is discussed by [24] where testing of total independence based on empirical characteristic functions is considered. Our test has a direct interpretation in terms of characteristic functions as well, which is straightforward to see in the case of translation invariant kernels on Euclidean spaces, using their Bochner representation, similarly as in [27, Corollary 4]. 6 Marginal independence tests: Dataset B Null acceptance rate (Type II error) Marginal independence tests: Dataset A 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 2var: X ? ?Y 2var: X ? ?Z 2var: (X, Y ) ? ?Z ?L : (X, Y ) ? ?Z 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Dimension Dimension Figure 1: Two-variable kernel independence tests and the test for (X, Y ) ? ? Z using the Lancaster statistic Null acceptance rate (Type II error) Total independence test: Dataset A Total independence test: Dataset B 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 ?L : total indep. ?tot : total indep. 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 3 1 5 Dimension 9 7 11 13 15 17 19 Dimension Figure 2: Total independence: ?tot P? vs. ?L P? . 5 Experiments We investigate the performance of various permutation based tests that use the Lancaster statistic 2 2 and the total independence statistic ?tot P? on two synthetic datasets where ?L P? k?l?m k?l?m X, Y and Z are random vectors of increasing dimensionality: Dataset A: Pairwise independent, mutually dependent data. Our first dataset is a triplet of i.i.d. random vectors (X, Y, Z) on Rp ? Rp ? Rp , with X, Y ? N (0, Ip ), W ? Exp( ?12 ), Z1 = sign(X1 Y1 )W , and Z2:p ? N (0, Ip?1 ), i.e., the product of X1 Y1 determines the sign of Z1 , while the remaining p ? 1 dimensions are independent (and serve as noise in this example).4 In this case, (X, Y, Z) is clearly a pairwise independent but mutually dependent triplet. The mutual dependence becomes increasingly difficult to detect as the dimensionality p increases. Dataset B: Joint dependence can be easier to detect. In this example, we consider a triplet of i.i.d. random vectors (X, Y, Z) on Rp ? Rp ? Rp , with X, Y ? N (0, Ip ), Z2:p ? N (0, Ip?1 ), and ? 2 ? w.p. 1/3, ?X1 + ?, 2 Z1 = Y1 + ?, w.p. 1/3, ? ?X1 Y1 + ?, w.p. 1/3, where ? ? N (0, 0.12 ). Thus, dependence of Z on pair (X, Y ) is stronger than on X and Y individually. 4 Note that there is no reason for X, Y and Z to have the same dimensionality p - this is done for simplicity of exposition. 7 V-structure discovery: Dataset B Null acceptance rate (Type II error) V-structure discovery: Dataset A 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2var: Factor ?L : Factor 0.2 0.2 CI: X ? ? Y |Z 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Dimension Dimension Figure 3: Factorization hypothesis: Lancaster statistic vs. a two-variable based test; Test for X ? ? Y |Z from [18] In all cases, we use permutation tests as described in Appendix D. The test level is set to ? = 0.05, sample size to n = 500, and we use gaussian kernels with bandwidth set to the interpoint median distance. In Figure 1, we plot the null hypothesis acceptance rates of the standard kernel twovariable tests for X ? ? Y (which is true for both datasets A and B, and accepted at the correct rate across all dimensions) and for X ? ? Z (which is true only for dataset A), as well as of the standard kernel two-variable test for (X, Y ) ? ? Z, and the test for (X, Y ) ? ? Z using the Lancaster statistic. As expected, in dataset B, we see that dependence of Z on pair (X, Y ) is somewhat easier to detect than on X individually with two-variable tests. In both datasets, however, the Lancaster interaction appears significantly more sensitive in detecting this dependence as dimensionality p 2 increases. Figure 2 plots the Type II error of total independence tests with statistics ?L P? k?l?m 2 ? and ?tot P . The Lancaster statistic outperforms the total independence statistic everywhere k?l?m apart from the Dataset B when the number of dimensions is small (between 1 and 5). Figure 3 plots the Type II error of the factorization test, i.e., test for (X, Y ) ? ? Z ? (X, Z) ? ? Y ? (Y, Z) ? ?X with Lancaster statistic with Holm-Bonferroni correction as described in Appendix D, as well as the two-variable based test (which performs three standard two-variable tests and applies the HolmBonferroni correction). We also plot the Type II error for the conditional independence test for X ? ? Y |Z from [18]. Under assumption that X ? ? Y (correct on both datasets), negation of each of these three hypotheses is equivalent to the presence of V-structure X ? Z ? Y , so the rejection of the null can be viewed as a V-structure detection procedure. As dimensionality increases, the Lancaster statistic appears significantly more sensitive to the interactions present than the competing approaches, which is particularly pronounced in Dataset A. 6 Conclusions We have constructed permutation-based nonparametric tests for three-variable interactions, including the Lancaster interaction and total independence. The tests can be used in datasets where only higher-order interactions persist, i.e., variables are pairwise independent; as well as in cases where joint dependence may be easier to detect than pairwise dependence, for instance when the effect of two variables on a third is not additive. The flexibility of the framework of RKHS embeddings of signed measures allows us to consider variables that are themselves multidimensional. While the total independence case readily generalizes to more than three dimensions, the combinatorial nature of joint cumulants implies that detecting interactions of higher order requires significantly more costly computation. References [1] A. Gretton, O. Bousquet, A. Smola, and B. Sch?olkopf. Measuring statistical dependence with HilbertSchmidt norms. In ALT, pages 63?78, 2005. [2] G. Sz?ekely, M. Rizzo, and N.K. Bakirov. Measuring and testing dependence by correlation of distances. Ann. Stat., 35(6):2769?2794, 2007. 8 [3] D. Sejdinovic, B. Sriperumbudur, A. 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More Effective Distributed ML via a Stale Synchronous Parallel Parameter Server ?Qirong Ho, ?James Cipar, ?Henggang Cui, ?Jin Kyu Kim, ?Seunghak Lee, ?Phillip B. Gibbons, ?Garth A. Gibson, ?Gregory R. Ganger, ?Eric P. Xing ?School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ?Electrical and Computer Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 qho@, jcipar@, jinkyuk@, hengganc@, [email protected] ?Intel Labs Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] seunghak@, garth@, [email protected] Abstract We propose a parameter server system for distributed ML, which follows a Stale Synchronous Parallel (SSP) model of computation that maximizes the time computational workers spend doing useful work on ML algorithms, while still providing correctness guarantees. The parameter server provides an easy-to-use shared interface for read/write access to an ML model?s values (parameters and variables), and the SSP model allows distributed workers to read older, stale versions of these values from a local cache, instead of waiting to get them from a central storage. This significantly increases the proportion of time workers spend computing, as opposed to waiting. Furthermore, the SSP model ensures ML algorithm correctness by limiting the maximum age of the stale values. We provide a proof of correctness under SSP, as well as empirical results demonstrating that the SSP model achieves faster algorithm convergence on several different ML problems, compared to fully-synchronous and asynchronous schemes. 1 Introduction Modern applications awaiting next generation machine intelligence systems have posed unprecedented scalability challenges. These scalability needs arise from at least two aspects: 1) massive data volume, such as societal-scale social graphs [10, 25] with up to hundreds of millions of nodes; and 2) massive model size, such as the Google Brain deep neural network [9] containing billions of parameters. Although there exist means and theories to support reductionist approaches like subsampling data or using small models, there is an imperative need for sound and effective distributed ML methodologies for users who cannot be well-served by such shortcuts. Recent efforts towards distributed ML have made significant advancements in two directions: (1) Leveraging existing common but simple distributed systems to implement parallel versions of a limited selection of ML models, that can be shown to have strong theoretical guarantees under parallelization schemes such as cyclic delay [17, 1], model pre-partitioning [12], lock-free updates [21], bulk synchronous parallel [5], or even no synchronization [28] ? these schemes are simple to implement but may under-exploit the full computing power of a distributed cluster. (2) Building high-throughput distributed ML architectures or algorithm implementations that feature significant systems contributions but relatively less theoretical analysis, such as GraphLab [18], Spark [27], Pregel [19], and YahooLDA [2]. While the aforementioned works are significant contributions in their own right, a naturally desirable goal for distributed ML is to pursue a system that (1) can maximally unleash the combined computational power in a cluster of any given size (by spending more time doing useful computation and less time waiting for communication), (2) supports inference for a broad collection of ML methods, and (3) enjoys correctness guarantees. In this paper, we explore a path to such a system using the 1 idea of a parameter server [22, 2], which we define as the combination of a shared key-value store that provides a centralized storage model (which may be implemented in a distributed fashion) with a synchronization model for reading/updating model values. The key-value store provides easyto-program read/write access to shared parameters needed by all workers, and the synchronization model maximizes the time each worker spends on useful computation (versus communication with the server) while still providing algorithm correctness guarantees. Towards this end, we propose a parameter server using a Stale Synchronous Parallel (SSP) model of computation, for distributed ML algorithms that are parallelized into many computational workers (technically, threads) spread over many machines. In SSP, workers can make updates to a parameter1 ?, where the updates follow an associative, commutative form ? ? + . Hence, the current true value of ? is just the sum over updates from all workers. When a worker asks for ?, the SSP model will give it a stale (i.e. delayed) version of ? that excludes recent updates . More formally, a worker reading ? at iteration c will see the effects of all from iteration 0 to c s 1, where s 0 is a user-controlled staleness threshold. In addition, the worker may get to see some recent updates beyond iteration c s 1. The idea is that SSP systems should deliver as many updates as possible, without missing any updates older than a given age ? a concept referred to as bounded staleness [24]. The practical effect of this is twofold: (1) workers can perform more computation instead of waiting for other workers to finish, and (2) workers spend less time communicating with the parameter server, and more time doing useful computation. Bounded staleness distinguishes SSP from cyclic-delay systems [17, 1] (where ? is read with inflexible staleness), Bulk Synchronous Parallel (BSP) systems like Hadoop (workers must wait for each other at the end of every iteration), or completely asynchronous systems [2] (workers never wait, but ? has no staleness guarantees). We implement an SSP parameter server with a table-based interface, called SSPtable, that supports a wide range of distributed ML algorithms for many models and applications. SSPtable itself can also be run in a distributed fashion, in order to (a) increase performance, or (b) support applications where the parameters ? are too large to fit on one machine. Moreover, SSPtable takes advantage of bounded staleness to maximize ML algorithm performance, by reading the parameters ? from caches on the worker machines whenever possible, and only reading ? from the parameter server when the SSP model requires it. Thus, workers (1) spend less time waiting for each other, and (2) spend less time communicating with the parameter server. Furthermore, we show that SSPtable (3) helps slow, straggling workers to catch up, providing a systems-based solution to the ?last reducer? problem on systems like Hadoop (while we note that theory-based solutions are also possible). SSPtable can be run on multiple server machines (called ?shards?), thus dividing its workload over the cluster; in this manner, SSPtable can (4) service more workers simultaneously, and (5) support very large models that cannot fit on a single machine. Finally, the SSPtable server program can also be run on worker machines, which (6) provides a simple but effective strategy for allocating machines between workers and the parameter server. Our theoretical analysis shows that (1) SSP generalizes the bulk synchronous parallel (BSP) model, and that (2) stochastic gradient algorithms (e.g. for matrix factorization or topic models) under SSP not only converge, but do so at least as fast as cyclic-delay systems [17, 1] (and potentially even faster depending on implementation). Furthermore, our implementation of SSP, SSPtable, supports a wide variety of algortihms and models, and we demonstrate it on several popular ones: (a) Matrix Factorization with stochastic gradient descent [12], (b) Topic Modeling with collapsed Gibbs sampling [2], and (c) Lasso regression with parallelized coordinate descent [5]. Our experimental results show that, for these 3 models and algorithms, (i) SSP yields faster convergence than BSP (up to several times faster), and (ii) SSP yields faster convergence than a fully asynchronous (i.e. no staleness guarantee) system. We explain SSPtable?s better performance in terms of algorithm progress per iteration (quality) and iterations executed per unit time (quantity), and show that SSPtable hits a ?sweet spot? between quality and quantity that is missed by BSP and fully asynchronous systems. 2 Stale Synchronous Parallel Model of Computation We begin with an informal explanation of SSP: assume a collection of P workers, each of which makes additive updates to a shared parameter x x + u at regular intervals called clocks. Clocks are similar to iterations, and represent some unit of progress by an ML algorithm. Every worker 1 For example, the parameter ? might be the topic-word distributions in LDA, or the factor matrices in a matrix decomposition, while the updates could be adding or removing counts to topic-word or document-word tables in LDA, or stochastic gradient steps in a matrix decomposition. 2 has its own integer-valued clock c, and workers only commit their updates at the end of each clock. Updates may not be immediately visible to other workers trying to read x ? in other words, workers only see effects from a ?stale? subset of updates. The idea is that, with staleness, workers can retrieve updates from caches on the same machine (fast) instead of querying the parameter server over the network (slow). Given a user-chosen staleness threshold s 0, SSP enforces the following bounded staleness conditions (see Figure 1 for a graphical illustration): ? The slowest and fastest workers must be ? s clocks apart ? otherwise, the fastest worker is forced to wait for the slowest worker to catch up. ? When a worker with clock c commits an update u, that u is timestamped with time c. ? When a worker with clock c reads x, it will always see effects from all u with timestamp ? c s 1. It may also see some u with timestamp > c s 1 from other workers. ? Read-my-writes: A worker p will always see the effects of its own updates up . Since the fastest and slowest workers are ? s clocks apart, a worker reading x at clock c will see all updates with timestamps in [0, c s 1], plus a (possibly empty) ?adaptive? subset of updates in the range [c s, c + s 1]. Note that when s = 0, the ?guaranteed? range becomes [0, c 1] while the adaptive range becomes empty, which is exactly the Bulk Synchronous Parallel model of computation. Let us look at how SSP applies to an example ML algorithm. SSP: Bounded Staleness and Clocks Here, Worker 1 must wait on further reads, until Worker 2 has reached clock 4 Staleness Threshold 3 Worker 1 Worker progress Worker 2 Updates visible to all workers Worker 3 Updates visible to Worker 1, due to read-my-writes Worker 4 Updates not necessarily visible to Worker 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Clock Figure 1: Bounded Staleness under the SSP Model 2.1 An example: Stochastic Gradient Descent for Matrix Problems The Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) [17, 12] algorithm optimizes an objective function by applying gradient descent to random subsets of the data. Consider a matrix completion task, which involves decomposing an N ? M matrix D into two low-rank matrices LR ? D, where L, R have sizes N ? K and K ? M (for a user-specified K). The data matrix D may have missing entries, corresponding to missing data. Concretely, D could be a matrix of users against products, with Dij representing user i?s rating of product j. Because users do not rate all possible products, the goal is to predict ratings for missing entries Dab given known entries Dij . If we found low-rank matrices L, R such that Li? ? R?j ? Dij for all known entries Dij , we could then predict Dab = La? ? R?b for unknown entries Dab . To perform the decomposition, let us minimize the squared difference between each known entry Dij and its prediction Li? ? R?j (note that other loss functions and regularizers are also possible): min L,R X K X Dij 2 Lik Rkj (1) . k=1 (i,j)2Data As a first step towards SGD, consider solving Eq (1) using coordinate gradient descent on L, R: @OMF = @Lik X @OMF = @Rkj (a = i) [ 2Dab Rkb + 2La? R?b Rkb ] , (a,b)2Data X (b = j) [ 2Dab Lak + 2La? R?b Lak ] (a,b)2Data where OMF is the objective in Eq(1), and (a = i) equals 1 if a = i, and 0 otherwise. This can be transformed into an SGD algorithm by replacing the full sum over entries (a, b) with a subsample (with appropriate reweighting). The entries Dab can then be distributed over multiple workers, and their gradients computed in parallel [12]. We assume that D is ?tall?, i.e. N > M (or transpose D so this is true), and partition the rows of D and L over the processors. Only R needs to be shared among all processors, so we let it be the SSP shared parameter x := R. SSP allows many workers to read/write to R with minimal waiting, though the workers will only see stale values of R. This tradeoff is beneficial because without staleness, the workers must wait for a long time when reading R from the server (as our experiments will show). While having stale values of R decreases convergence progress per iteration, SSP more than makes up by enabling significantly more iterations per minute, compared to fully synchronous systems. Thus, SSP yields more convergence progress per minute, i.e. faster convergence. 3 Note that SSP is not limited to stochastic gradient matrix algorithms: it can also be applied to parallel collapsed sampling on topic models [2] (by storing the word-topic and document-topic tables in x), parallel coordinate descent on Lasso regression [5] (by storing the regression coefficients in x), as well as any other parallel algorithm or model with shared parameters that all workers need read/write access to. Our experiments will show that SSP performs better than bulk synchronous parallel and asynchronous systems for matrix completion, topic modeling and Lasso regression. 3 SSPtable: an Efficient SSP System Client process An ideal SSP implementation would fully exploit the leeway granted by the SSP?s bounded staleness property, in order to balance the time workers spend waiting on reads with the need for freshness in the shared data. This section describes our initial implementation of SSPtable, which is a parameter server conforming to the SSP model, and that can be run on many server machines at once (distributed). Our experiments with this SSPtable implementation shows that SSP can indeed improve convergence rates for several ML models and algorithms, while further tuning of cache management policies could further improve the performance of SSPtable. Application Application thread Application thread Application thread thread Thread Thread cache Thread cache Thread cache cache Table Tableserver server Table Tableserver server Table data Pending requests Process cache Figure 2: Cache structure of SSPtable, with multiple server shards SSPtable follows a distributed client-server architecture. Clients access shared parameters using a client library, which maintains a machine-wide process cache and optional per-thread2 thread caches (Figure 2); the latter are useful for improving performance, by reducing inter-thread synchronization (which forces workers to wait) when a client ML program executes multiple worker threads on each of multiple cores of a client machine. The server parameter state is divided (sharded) over multiple server machines, and a normal configuration would include a server process on each of the client machines. Programming with SSPtable follows a simple table-based API for reading/writing to shared parameters x (for example, the matrix R in the SGD example of Section 2.1): ? Table Organization: SSPtable supports an unlimited number of tables, which are divided into rows, which are further subdivided into elements. These tables are used to store x. ? read row(table,row,s): Retrieve a table-row with staleness threshold s. The user can then query individual row elements. ? inc(table,row,el,val): Increase a table-row-element by val, which can be negative. These changes are not propagated to the servers until the next call to clock(). ? clock(): Inform all servers that the current thread/processor has completed one clock, and commit all outstanding inc()s to the servers. Any number of read row() and inc() calls can be made in-between calls to clock(). Different thread workers are permitted to be at different clocks, however, bounded staleness requires that the fastest and slowest threads be no more than s clocks apart. In this situation, SSPtable forces the fastest thread to block (i.e. wait) on calls to read row(), until the slowest thread has caught up. To maintain the ?read-my-writes? property, we use a write-back policy: all writes are immediately committed to the thread caches, and are flushed to the process cache and servers upon clock(). To maintain bounded staleness while minimizing wait times on read row() operations, SSPtable uses the following cache protocol: Let every table-row in a thread or process cache be endowed with a clock rthread or rproc respectively. Let every thread worker be endowed with a clock c, equal to the number of times it has called clock(). Finally, define the server clock cserver to be the minimum over all thread clocks c. When a thread with clock c requests a table-row, it first checks its thread cache. If the row is cached with clock rthread c s, then it reads the row. Otherwise, it checks the process cache next ? if the row is cached with clock rproc c s, then it reads the row. At this point, no network traffic has been incurred yet. However, if both caches miss, then a network request is sent to the server (which forces the thread to wait for a reply). The server returns its view of the table-row as well as the clock cserver . Because the fastest and slowest threads can be no more than s clocks apart, and because a thread?s updates are sent to the server whenever it calls clock(), the returned server view always satisfies the bounded staleness requirements for the 2 We assume that every computation thread corresponds to one ML algorithm worker. 4 asking thread. After fetching a row from the server, the corresponding entry in the thread/process caches and the clocks rthread , rproc are then overwritten with the server view and clock cserver . A beneficial consequence of this cache protocol is that the slowest thread only performs costly server reads every s clocks. Faster threads may perform server reads more frequently, and as frequently as every clock if they are consistently waiting for the slowest thread?s updates. This distinction in work per thread does not occur in BSP, wherein every thread must read from the server on every clock. Thus, SSP not only reduces overall network traffic (thus reducing wait times for all server reads), but also allows slow, straggler threads to avoid server reads in some iterations. Hence, the slow threads naturally catch up ? in turn allowing fast threads to proceed instead of waiting for them. In this manner, SSP maximizes the time each machine spends on useful computation, rather than waiting. 4 Theoretical Analysis of SSP Formally, the SSP model supports operations x x (z ? y), where x, y are members of a ring with an abelian operator (such as addition), and a multiplication operator ? such that z ? y = y0 where y0 is also in the ring. In the context of ML, we shall focus on addition and multiplication over real vectors x, y and scalar coefficients z, i.e. x x + (zy); such operations can be found in the update equations of many ML inference algorithms, such as gradient descent [12], coordinate descent [5] and collapsed Gibbs sampling [2]. In what follows, we shall informally refer to x as the ?system state?, u = zy as an ?update?, and to the operation x x + u as ?writing an update?. We assume that P workers write updates at regular time intervals (referred to as ?clocks?). Let up,c be the update written by worker p at clock c through the write operation x x + up,c . The updates up,c are a function of the system state x, and under the SSP model, different workers will ?see? ? p,c be the noisy state read by worker p at clock c, different, noisy versions of the true state x. Let x implying that up,c = G(? xp,c ) for some function G. We now formally re-state bounded staleness, ? p,c can take: which is the key SSP condition that bounds the possible values x ? p,c is equal to SSP Condition (Bounded Staleness): Fix a staleness s. Then, the noisy state x 2 ? p,c = x0 + 4 x | cX s 1 P X c0 =1 p0 =1 {z 3 up0 ,c0 5 + } guaranteed pre-window updates 2 4 | c 1 X c0 =c s 3 up,c0 5 {z } guaranteed read-my-writes updates 2 +4 | X (p0 ,c0 )2Sp,c {z 3 up0 ,c0 5, (2) } best-effort in-window updates where Sp,c ? Wp,c = ([1, P ] \ {p}) ? [c s, c + s 1] is some subset of the updates u written in the width-2s ?window? Wp,c , which ranges from clock c s to c + s 1 and does not include ? p,c consists of three parts: updates from worker p. In other words, the noisy state x 1. Guaranteed ?pre-window? updates from clock 0 to c s 1, over all workers. 2. Guaranteed ?read-my-writes? set {(p, c s), . . . , (p, c 1)} that covers all ?in-window? updates made by the querying worker3 p. 3. Best-effort ?in-window? updates Sp,c from the width-2s window4 [c s, c + s 1] (not counting updates from worker p). An SSP implementation should try to deliver as many updates from Sp,c as possible, but may choose not to depending on conditions. Notice that Sp,c is specific to worker p at clock c; other workers at different clocks will observe different S. Also, observe that SSP generalizes the Bulk Synchronous Parallel (BSP) model: BSP Corollary: Under zero staleness s = 0, SSP reduces to BSP. Proof: s = 0 implies [c, c + ? p,c exactly consists of all updates until clock c 1. ? s 1] = ;, and therefore x Our key tool for convergence analysis is to define a reference sequence of states xt , informally referred to as the ?true? sequence (this is different and unrelated to the SSPtable server?s view): xt = x0 + t X t0 =0 u t0 , where ut := ut mod P ,bt/P c . In other words, we sum updates by first looping over workers (t mod P ), then over clocks bt/P c. ? p,c : We can now bound the difference between the ?true? sequence xt and the noisy views x 3 This is a ?read-my-writes? or self-synchronization property, i.e. workers will always see any updates they make. Having such a property makes sense because self-synchronization does not incur a network cost. 4 The width 2s is only an upper bound for the slowest worker. The fastest worker with clock cmax has a width-s window [cmax s, cmax 1], simply because no updates for clocks cmax have been written yet. 5 Lemma 1: Assume s ? t := x ? t mod P ,bt/P c , so that 1, and let x " # " # X X ? t = xt x ui + ui , | i2At {z } missing updates | i2Bt {z (3) } extra updates ? t and xt into At , the index set of updates ui where we have decomposed the difference between x ? t (w.r.t. xt ), and Bt , the index set of ?extra? updates in x ? t but not in xt . We that are missing from x then claim that |At | + |Bt | ? 2s(P 1), and furthermore, min(At [ Bt ) max(1, t (s + 1)P ), and max(At [ Bt ) ? t + sP . Proof: Comparing Eq. (3) with (2), we see that the extra updates obey Bt ? St mod P ,bt/P c , while the missing updates obey At ? (Wt mod P ,bt/P c \ St mod P ,bt/P c ). Because |Wt mod P ,bt/P c | = 2s(P 1), the first claim immediately follows. The second and third claims follow from looking at the left- and right-most boundaries of Wt mod P ,bt/P c . ? ? t only differ by at most 2s(P 1) Lemma 1 basically says that the ?true? state xt and the noisy state x updates ut , and that these updates cannot be more than (s+1)P steps away from t. These properties can be used to prove convergence bounds for various algorithms; in this paper, we shall focus on stochastic gradient descent SGD [17]: Theorem 1 (SGD under SSP): Suppose we want to find the minimizer x? of a convex function PT f (x) = T1 t=1 ft (x), via gradient descent on one component rft at a time. We assume the components ft are also convex. Let ut := ?t rft (? xt ), where ?t = pt with = p F for L 2(s+1)P certain constants F, L. Then, under suitable conditions (ft are L-Lipschitz and the distance between two points D(xkx0 ) ? F 2 ), " # r T 1X 2(s + 1)P ? R[X] := ft (? xt ) f (x ) ? 4F L T t=1 T ? t converge in expectation to the true view x? (as measured This means that the noisy worker views x by the function f (), and at rate O(T 1/2 )). We defer the proof to the appendix, noting that it generally follows the analysis in Langford et al. [17], except in places where Lemma 1 is involved. Our bound is also similar to [17], except that (1) their fixed delay ? has been replaced by our staleness upper bound 2(s + 1)P , and (2) we have shown convergence of the noisy worker views ? t rather than a true sequence xt . Furthermore, because the constant factor 2(s + 1)P is only an x upper bound to the number of erroneous updates, SSP?s rate of convergence has a potentially tighter constant factor than Langford et al.?s fixed staleness system (details are in the appendix). 5 Experiments We show that the SSP model outperforms fully-synchronous models such as Bulk Synchronous Parallel (BSP) that require workers to wait for each other on every iteration, as well as asynchronous models with no model staleness guarantees. The general experimental details are: ? Computational models and implementation: SSP, BSP and Asynchronous5 . We used SSPtable for the first two (BSP is just staleness 0 under SSP), and implemented the Asynchronous model using many of the caching features of SSPtable (to keep the implementations comparable). ? ML models (and parallel algorithms): LDA Topic Modeling (collapsed Gibbs sampling), Matrix Factorization (stochastic gradient descent) and Lasso regression (coordinate gradient descent). All algorithms were implemented using SSPtable?s parameter server interface. For TM and MF, we ran the algorithms in a ?full batch? mode (where the algorithm?s workers collectively touch every data point once per clock()), as well as a ?10% minibatch? model (workers touch 10% of the data per clock()). Due to implementation limitations, we did not run Lasso under the Async model. ? Datasets: Topic Modeling: New York Times (N = 100m tokens, V = 100k terms, K = 100 topics), Matrix Factorization: NetFlix (480k-by-18k matrix with 100m nonzeros, rank K = 100 decomposition), Lasso regression: Synthetic dataset (N = 500 samples with P = 400k features6 ). We use a static data partitioning strategy explained in the Appendix. ? Compute cluster: Multi-core blade servers connected by 10 Gbps Ethernet, running VMware ESX. We use one virtual machine (VM) per physical machine. Each VM is configured with 8 cores (either 2.3GHz or 2.5GHz each) and 23GB of RAM, running on top of Debian Linux 7.0. 5 6 The Asynchronous model is used in many ML frameworks, such as YahooLDA [2] and HogWild! [21]. This is the largest data size we could get the Lasso algorithm to converge on, under ideal BSP conditions. 6 Convergence Speed. Figure 3 shows objective vs. time plots for the three ML algorithms, over several machine configurations. We are interested in how long each algorithm takes to reach a given objective value, which corresponds to drawing horizontal lines on the plots. On each plot, we show curves for BSP (zero staleness), Async, and SSP for the best staleness value 1 (we generally omit the other SSP curves to reduce clutter). In all cases except Topic Modeling with 8 VMs, SSP converges to a given objective value faster than BSP or Async. The gap between SSP and the other systems increases with more VMs and smaller data batches, because both of these factors lead to increased network communication ? which SSP is able to reduce via staleness. We also provide a scalability-with-N -machines plot in the Appendix. Computation Time vs Network Waiting Time. To understand why SSP performs better, we look at how the Topic Modeling (TM) algorithm spends its time during a fixed number of clock()s. In the 2nd row of Figure 3, we see that for any machine configuration, the TM algorithm spends roughly the same amount of time on useful computation, regardless of the staleness value. However, the time spent waiting for network communication drops rapidly with even a small increase in staleness, allowing SSP to execute clock()s more quickly than BSP (staleness 0). Furthermore, the ratio of network-to-compute time increases as we add more VMs, or use smaller data batches. At 32 VMs and 10% data minibatches, the TM algorithm under BSP spends six times more time on network communications than computation. In contrast, the optimal value of staleness, 32, exhibits a 1:1 ratio of communication to computation. Hence, the value of SSP lies in allowing ML algorithms to perform far more useful computations per second, compared to the BSP model (e.g. Hadoop). Similar observations hold for the MF and Lasso applications (graphs not shown for space reasons). Iteration Quantity and Quality. The network-compute ratio only partially explains SSP?s behavior; we need to examine each clock()?s behavior to get a full picture. In the 3rd row of Figure 3, we plot the number of clocks executed per worker per unit time for the TM algorithm, as well as the objective value at each clock. Higher staleness values increase the number of clocks executed per unit time, but decrease each clock?s progress towards convergence (as suggested by our theory); MF and Lasso also exhibit similar behavior (graphs not shown). Thus, staleness is a tradeoff between iteration quantity and quality ? and because the iteration rate exhibits diminishing returns with higher staleness values, there comes a point where additional staleness starts to hurt the rate of convergence per time. This explains why the best staleness value in a given setting is some constant 0 < s < 1 ? hence, SSP can hit a ?sweet spot? between quality/quantity that BSP and Async do not achieve. Automatically finding this sweet spot for a given problem is a subject for future work. 6 Related Work and Discussion The idea of staleness has been explored before: in ML academia, it has been analyzed in the context of cyclic-delay architectures [17, 1], in which machines communicate with a central server (or each other) under a fixed schedule (and hence fixed staleness). Even the bulk synchronous parallel (BSP) model inherently produces stale communications, the effects of which have been studied for algorithms such as Lasso regression [5] and topic modeling [2]. Our work differs in that SSP advocates bounded (rather than fixed) staleness to allow higher computational throughput via local machine caches. Furthermore, SSP?s performance does not degrade when parameter updates frequently collide on the same vector elements, unlike asynchronous lock-free systems [21]. We note that staleness has been informally explored in the industrial setting at large scales; our work provides a first attempt at rigorously justifying staleness as a sound ML technique. Distributed platforms such as Hadoop and GraphLab [18] are popular for large-scale ML. The biggest difference between them and SSPtable is the programming model ? Hadoop uses a stateless map-reduce model, while GraphLab uses stateful vertex programs organized into a graph. In contrast, SSPtable provides a convenient shared-memory programming model based on a table/matrix API, making it easy to convert single-machine parallel ML algorithms into distributed versions. In particular, the algorithms used in our experiments ? LDA, MF, Lasso ? are all straightforward conversions of single-machine algorithms. Hadoop?s BSP execution model is a special case of SSP, making SSPtable more general in that regard; however, Hadoop also provides fault-tolerance and distributed filesystem features that SSPtable does not cover. Finally, there exist special-purpose tools such as Vowpal Wabbit [16] and YahooLDA [2]. Whereas these systems have been targeted at a subset of ML algorithms, SSPtable can be used by any ML algorithm that tolerates stale updates. The distributed systems community has typically examined staleness in the context of consistency models. The TACT model [26] describes consistency along three dimensions: numerical error, order error, and staleness. Other work [24] attempts to classify existing systems according to a number 7 Topic Modeling: Convergence 32 VMs 32 VMs, 10% minibatches 8 VMs Objective function versus time LDA 8 machines (64 threads), Full data per iter Objective function versus time LDA 32 machines (256 threads), Full data per iter -1.00E+09 -1.05E+09 -1.10E+09 500 BSP (stale 0) stale 2 async 1000 1500 2000 -9.50E+08 Log-Likelihood Log-Likelihood -9.50E+08 Objective function versus time LDA 32 machines (256 threads), 10% data per iter -9.00E+08 0 -1.15E+09 -1.20E+09 -1.25E+09 -9.00E+08 0 500 1000 1500 -1.00E+09 -1.05E+09 BSP (stale 0) stale 4 async -1.10E+09 -1.15E+09 -1.20E+09 -1.25E+09 -1.30E+09 -1.30E+09 Seconds 2000 -9.50E+08 Log-Likelihood -9.00E+08 0 500 1000 1500 -1.05E+09 -1.10E+09 BSP (stale 0) stale 32 async -1.15E+09 -1.20E+09 -1.25E+09 -1.30E+09 Seconds 2000 -1.00E+09 Seconds Topic Modeling: Computation Time vs Network Waiting Time 8 VMs 32 VMs 32 VMs, 10% minibatches Time Breakdown: Compute vs Network LDA 32 machines, Full data Time Breakdown: Compute vs Network LDA 32 machines, 10% data 4000 8000 3500 Compute time 7000 Network waiting time 3000 2000 1500 1000 4 16 32 2 4 6 8 0 stale 8 stale 16 stale 24 stale 32 stale 40 8000 stale 48 400 600 stale 24 -1.15E+09 stale 32 -1.20E+09 stale 40 -1.25E+09 stale 48 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Seconds 2.00E+09 1.80E+09 2.00E+09 1.90E+09 1.80E+09 1.60E+09 1.70E+09 1.40E+09 1.60E+09 5000 Seconds 6000 Objective function versus time MF 32 machines (256 threads), 10% data per iter 7000 BSP (stale 0) stale 15 async 2.10E+09 Objective 2.20E+09 4000 4.40E-01 4.20E-01 Objective function versus time MF 32 machines (256 threads), Full data per iter BSP (stale 0) stale 4 async 2.40E+09 3000 4.50E-01 Iterations (clocks) 2.20E+09 2000 4.60E-01 4.30E-01 8000 BSP (stale 0) stale 32 async 2.20E+09 2.10E+09 Objective Objective function versus time MF 8 machines (64 threads), Full data per iter 2.60E+09 1000 48 Matrix Factorization: Convergence 32 VMs 32 VMs, 10% minibatches 8 VMs 0 4.70E-01 stale 16 -1.10E+09 40 BSP (stale 0) stale 10 stale 20 stale 40 stale 80 4.80E-01 1000 stale 8 -1.05E+09 32 Objective function versus time Lasso 16 machines (128 threads) 800 BSP (stale 0) -1.00E+09 -1.30E+09 Seconds Objective 200 Objective BSP (stale 0) 0 24 Lasso: Convergence 16 VMs Quality: objective versus iterations LDA 32 machines, 10% data -9.50E+08 6000 16 Staleness -9.00E+08 Log-Likelihood Iterations (clocks) Quantity: iterations versus time LDA 32 machines, 10% data 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4000 8 Staleness Topic Modeling: Iteration Quantity and Quality 32 VMs, 10% minibatches 32 VMs, 10% minibatches 2000 3000 0 0 48 Staleness 0 4000 1000 0 2 Compute time 5000 2000 500 0 Network waiting time 6000 Compute time 2500 Seconds Network waiting time Seconds Seconds Time Breakdown: Compute vs Network LDA 8 machines, Full data 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2.00E+09 1.90E+09 1.80E+09 1.70E+09 1.60E+09 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Seconds 6000 7000 8000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Seconds Figure 3: Experimental results: SSP, BSP and Asynchronous parameter servers running Topic Modeling, Matrix Factorization and Lasso regression. The Convergence graphs plot objective function (i.e. solution quality) against time. For Topic Modeling, we also plot computation time vs network waiting time, as well as how staleness affects iteration (clock) frequency (Quantity) and objective improvement per iteration (Quality). of consistency properties, specifically naming the concept of bounded staleness. The vector clocks used in SSPtable are similar to those in Fidge [11] and Mattern [20], which were in turn inspired by Lamport clocks [15]. However, SSPtable uses vector clocks to track the freshness of the data, rather than causal relationships between updates. [8] gives an informal definition of the SSP model, motivated by the need to reduce straggler effects in large compute clusters. In databases, bounded staleness has been applied to improve update and query performance. LazyBase [7] allows staleness bounds to be configured on a per-query basis, and uses this relaxed staleness to improve both query and update performance. FAS [23] keeps data replicated in a number of databases, each providing a different freshness/performance tradeoff. Data stream warehouses [13] collect data about timestamped events, and provide different consistency depending on the freshness of the data. Staleness (or freshness/timeliness) has also been applied in other fields such as sensor networks [14], dynamic web content generation [3], web caching [6], and information systems [4]. Acknowledgments Qirong Ho is supported by an NSS-PhD Fellowship from A-STAR, Singapore. This work is supported in part by NIH 1R01GM087694 and 1R01GM093156, DARPA FA87501220324, and NSF IIS1111142 to Eric P. Xing. We thank the member companies of the PDL Consortium (Actifio, APC, EMC, Emulex, Facebook, Fusion-IO, Google, HP, Hitachi, Huawei, Intel, Microsoft, NEC, NetApp, Oracle, Panasas, Samsung, Seagate, Symantec, VMware, Western Digital) for their interest, insights, feedback, and support. This work is supported in part by Intel via the Intel Science and Technology Center for Cloud Computing (ISTC-CC) and hardware donations from Intel and NetApp. 8 References [1] A. Agarwal and J. C. Duchi. Distributed delayed stochastic optimization. In Decision and Control (CDC), 2012 IEEE 51st Annual Conference on, pages 5451?5452. IEEE, 2012. [2] A. Ahmed, M. Aly, J. Gonzalez, S. Narayanamurthy, and A. J. Smola. Scalable inference in latent variable models. In WSDM, pages 123?132, 2012. [3] N. R. Alexandros Labrinidis. Balancing performance and data freshness in web database servers. pages pp. 393 ? 404, September 2003. [4] M. Bouzeghoub. A framework for analysis of data freshness. In Proceedings of the 2004 international workshop on Information quality in information systems, IQIS ?04, pages 59?67, 2004. [5] J. K. Bradley, A. Kyrola, D. Bickson, and C. Guestrin. Parallel coordinate descent for l1-regularized loss minimization. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2011), June 2011. [6] L. Bright and L. Raschid. Using latency-recency profiles for data delivery on the web. In Proceedings of the 28th international conference on Very Large Data Bases, VLDB ?02, pages 550?561, 2002. [7] J. Cipar, G. Ganger, K. Keeton, C. B. Morrey, III, C. A. Soules, and A. Veitch. LazyBase: trading freshness for performance in a scalable database. In Proceedings of the 7th ACM european conference on Computer Systems, pages 169?182, 2012. [8] J. Cipar, Q. Ho, J. K. Kim, S. Lee, G. R. Ganger, G. Gibson, K. Keeton, and E. Xing. Solving the straggler problem with bounded staleness. In HotOS ?13. Usenix, 2013. [9] J. Dean, G. Corrado, R. Monga, K. Chen, M. Devin, Q. Le, M. Mao, M. Ranzato, A. Senior, P. Tucker, K. Yang, and A. Ng. Large scale distributed deep networks. In NIPS 2012, 2012. [10] Facebook. www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=10150388519243859, January 2013. [11] C. J. Fidge. Timestamps in Message-Passing Systems that Preserve the Partial Ordering. In 11th Australian Computer Science Conference, pages 55?66, University of Queensland, Australia, 1988. [12] R. Gemulla, E. Nijkamp, P. J. Haas, and Y. Sismanis. Large-scale matrix factorization with distributed stochastic gradient descent. In KDD, pages 69?77. ACM, 2011. [13] L. Golab and T. Johnson. Consistency in a stream warehouse. In CIDR 2011, pages 114?122. [14] C.-T. Huang. Loft: Low-overhead freshness transmission in sensor networks. In SUTC 2008, pages 241?248, Washington, DC, USA, 2008. IEEE Computer Society. [15] L. Lamport. Time, clocks, and the ordering of events in a distributed system. Commun. ACM, 21(7):558? 565, July 1978. [16] J. Langford, L. Li, and A. Strehl. Vowpal wabbit online learning project, 2007. [17] J. Langford, A. J. Smola, and M. Zinkevich. Slow learners are fast. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 2331?2339, 2009. [18] Y. Low, G. Joseph, K. Aapo, D. Bickson, C. Guestrin, and M. Hellerstein, Joseph. Distributed GraphLab: A framework for machine learning and data mining in the cloud. PVLDB, 2012. [19] G. Malewicz, M. H. Austern, A. J. Bik, J. C. Dehnert, I. Horn, N. Leiser, and G. Czajkowski. Pregel: a system for large-scale graph processing. In Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Management of Data, pages 135?146. ACM, 2010. [20] F. Mattern. Virtual time and global states of distributed systems. In C. M. et al., editor, Proc. Workshop on Parallel and Distributed Algorithms, pages 215?226, North-Holland / Elsevier, 1989. [21] F. Niu, B. Recht, C. R?e, and S. J. Wright. Hogwild!: A lock-free approach to parallelizing stochastic gradient descent. In NIPS, 2011. [22] R. Power and J. Li. Piccolo: building fast, distributed programs with partitioned tables. In Proceedings of the USENIX conference on Operating systems design and implementation (OSDI), pages 1?14, 2010. [23] U. R?ohm, K. B?ohm, H.-J. Schek, and H. Schuldt. Fas: a freshness-sensitive coordination middleware for a cluster of olap components. In VLDB 2002, pages 754?765. VLDB Endowment, 2002. [24] D. Terry. Replicated data consistency explained through baseball. Technical Report MSR-TR-2011-137, Microsoft Research, October 2011. [25] Yahoo! http://webscope.sandbox.yahoo.com/catalog.php?datatype=g, 2013. [26] H. Yu and A. Vahdat. Design and evaluation of a conit-based continuous consistency model for replicated services. ACM Transactions on Computer Systems, 20(3):239?282, Aug. 2002. [27] M. Zaharia, M. Chowdhury, M. J. Franklin, S. Shenker, and I. Stoica. Spark: cluster computing with working sets. In Proceedings of the 2nd USENIX conference on Hot topics in cloud computing, 2010. [28] M. Zinkevich, M. Weimer, A. Smola, and L. Li. Parallelized stochastic gradient descent. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 23(23):1?9, 2010. 9
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Learning with Invariance via Linear Functionals on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space Yee Whye Teh Wee Sun Lee Xinhua Zhang Machine Learning Research Group Department of Computer Science Department of Statistics National ICT Australia and ANU National University of Singapore University of Oxford [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Incorporating invariance information is important for many learning problems. To exploit invariances, most existing methods resort to approximations that either lead to expensive optimization problems such as semi-definite programming, or rely on separation oracles to retain tractability. Some methods further limit the space of functions and settle for non-convex models. In this paper, we propose a framework for learning in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) using local invariances that explicitly characterize the behavior of the target function around data instances. These invariances are compactly encoded as linear functionals whose value are penalized by some loss function. Based on a representer theorem that we establish, our formulation can be efficiently optimized via a convex program. For the representer theorem to hold, the linear functionals are required to be bounded in the RKHS, and we show that this is true for a variety of commonly used RKHS and invariances. Experiments on learning with unlabeled data and transform invariances show that the proposed method yields better or similar results compared with the state of the art. 1 Introduction Invariances are among the most useful prior information used in machine learning [1]. In many vision problems such as handwritten digit recognition, detectors are often supposed to be invariant to certain local transformations, such as translation, rotation, and scaling [2, 3]. One way to utilize this invariance is by assuming that the gradient of the function is small along the directions of transformation at each data instance. Another important scenario is semi-supervised learning [4], which relies on reasonable priors over the relationship between the data distribution and the discriminant function [5, 6]. It is commonly assumed that the function does not change much in the proximity of each observed data instance, which reflects the typical clustering structure in the data set: instances from the same class are clustered together and away from those of different classes [7?9]. Another popular assumption is that the function varies smoothly over the graph Laplacian [10?12]. A number of existing works have established a mathematical framework for learning with invariance. Suppose T (x, ?) transforms a data point x by an operator T with a parameter ? (e.g. T for rotation and ? for the degree of rotation). Then to incorporate invariance, the target function f is assumed to be (almost) invariant over T (x, ?) := {T (x, ?) : ? ? ?}, where ? controls the locality of invariance. The consistency of this framework was shown by [13] in the context of robust optimization [14]. However, in practice it usually leads to a large or infinite number of constraints, and hence tractable formulations inevitably rely on approximating or restricting the invariance under consideration. Finally, this paradigm gets further complicated when f comes from a rich space of functions, e.g. the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) induced by universal kernels. In [15], all perturbations within the ellipsoids around instances are treated as invariances. This led to a second order cone program, which is difficult to solve efficiently. In [16], a discrete set of ? that corresponds to feature deletions [17] are considered. The problem is reduced to a quadratic program, but at the cost of blowing up the number of variables which makes scaling to large problems chal1 lenging. A one step approximation of T (x, ?) via the even-order Taylor expansions around ? = 0 is used in [18]. This results in a semi-definite programming, which is still hard to solve. A further simplification was introduced by [19], which performed sparse approximations of T (x, ?) by finding (via an oracle) the most violating instance under the current solution. Besides yielding a cheap quadratic program at each iteration, it also improved upon the Virtual Support Vector approach in [20], which did not have a clear optimization objective despite a similar motivation of sparse approximation. However, tractable oracles are often unavailable, and so a simpler approximation can be performed by merely enforcing the invariance of f along some given directions, e.g. the tangent ? direction ?? |?=0 T (x, ?). This idea was used in [21] in a nonlinear RKHS, but their direction of perturbation was not in the original space but in the RKHS. By contrast, [3] did penalize the gradient of f in the original feature space, but their function space was limited to neural networks and only locally optimal solutions were found. The goal of our paper, therefore, is to develop a new framework that: (1) allows a variety of invariances to be compactly encoded over a rich family of functions like RKHS, and (2) allows the search of the optimal function to be formulated as a convex program that is efficiently solvable. The key requirement to our approach is that the invariances can be characterized by linear functionals that are bounded (? 2). Under this assumption, we are able to formulate our model into a standard regularized risk minimization problem, where the objective consists of the sum of loss functions on these linear functionals, the usual loss functions on the labeled training data, and a regularization penalty based on the RKHS norm of the function (? 3). We give a representer theorem that guarantees that the cost can be minimized by linearly combining a finite number of basis functions1 . Using convex loss, the resulting optimization problem is a convex program, which can be efficiently solved in a batch or online fashion (? 5). Note [23] also proposed an operator based model for invariance, but did not derive a representer theorem and did not study the empirical performance. We also show that a wide range of commonly used invariances can be encoded as bounded linear functionals. This include derivatives, transformation invariances, and local averages in commonly used RKHSs such as those defined by Gaussian and polynomial kernels (? 4). Experiment show that the use of some of these invariances within our framework yield better or similar results compared to the state of the art. Finally, we point out that our focus is to find a function in a given RKHS which respects the prespecified invariances. We are not constructing kernels that instantiate the invariance, e.g. [24, 25]. 2 Preliminaries Suppose features of training examples lie in a domain X. A function k : X ? X ? R is called a positive semi-definite kernel (or simply kernel) if for all l ? N and all x1 , . . . , xl ? X, the l ? l Gram matrix K := (k(xi , xj ))ij is symmetric positive semi-definite. Example kernels on Rn ?Rn include polynomial kernel of degree r, which are defined as k(x1 , x2 ) = (x1 ? x2 + 1)r ,2 as well as Gaus2 sian kernels, defined as k(x1 , x2 ) = ?? (x1 , x2 ) where ?? (x1 , x2 ) := exp(? kx1 ? x2 k /(2? 2 )). More comprehensive introductions to kernels are available in, e.g., [26?28]. Given k, let H0 be the set of all finite linear of functions in {k(x, ?) : P x ? X}, and enPpcombinations Pq p dow on H0 an inner product as hf, gi = i=1 j=1 ?i ?j k(xi , yj ) where f (?) = i=1 ?i k(xi , ?) Pq and g(?) = j=1 ?j k(yj , ?). Note hf, gi is invariant to the form of expansion of f and g [26, 27]. Using the positive semi-definite properties of k, it is easy to show that H0 is an inner product space, and we call its completion under h?, ?i as a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) H induced by k. 2 For any f ? H, the reproducing property implies f (x) = hf, k(x, ?)i and we denote kf k := hf, f i. 2.1 Operators and Representers Definition 1 (Bounded Linear Operator and Functional). A linear operator T is a mapping from a vector space V to a vector space W, such that T (x + y) = T x + T y and T (?x) = ? ? T x for all x, y ? V and scalar ? ? R. T is also called a functional if W = R. In the case that V and W are normed, T is called bounded if c := supx?V,kxkV =1 kT xkW is finite, and we call c as the norm of the operator, denoted by kT k. 1 2 A similar result was provided in [22], but not in the context of learning with invariance. We write a variable in boldface if it is a vector in a Euclidean space. 2 Example 1. Let H be an RKHS induced by a kernel k defined on X ? X. Then for any x ? X, the linear functional T : H ? R defined as T (f ) := f (x) is bounded since |f (x)| = |hf, k(x, ?)i| ? kk(x, ?)k ? kf k = k(x, x)1/2 kf k by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. Boundedness of linear functionals is particularly useful thanks to the Riesz representation theorem which establishes their one-to-one correspondence to V [29]. Theorem 1 (Riesz representation Theorem). Every bounded linear functional L on a Hilbert space V can be represented in terms of an inner product L(x) = hx, zi for all x ? V, where the representer of the functional, z ? V, has norm kzk = kLk and is uniquely determined by L. Example 2. Let H be the RKHS induced by a kernel k. For any functional L on H, the representer z can be constructed as z(x) = hz, k(x, ?)i = L(k(x, ?)) for all x ? X. By Theorem 1, z ? H. Using Riesz?s representer theorem, it is not hard to show that for any bounded linear operator T : V ? V where V is Hilbertian, there exists a unique bounded linear operator T ? : V ? V such that hT x, yi = hx, T ? yi for all x, y ? V. T ? is called the adjoint operator. So continuing Example 2: Example 3. Suppose the functional L has the form L(f ) = T (f )(x0 ), where x0 ? X and T : H ? H is a bounded linear operator on H. Then the representer of L is z = T ? (k(x0 , ?)) because ? x ? X, z(x) = L(k(x, ?)) = T (k(x, ?))(x0 ) = hT (k(x, ?)), k(x0 , ?)i = hk(x, ?), T ? (k(x0 , ?))i. (1) Riesz?s theorem will be useful for our framework since it allows us to compactly represent functionals related to local invariances as elements of the RKHS. 3 Regularized Risk Minimization in RKHS with Invariances To simplify the presentation, we first describe our framework in the settings of semi-supervised learning [SSL, 4], and later show how to extend it to other learning scenarios in a straightforward way. In SSL, we wish to learn a target function f both from labeled data and from local invariances extracted from labeled and unlabeled data. Let (x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xl , yl ) be the labeled training data, and `1 (f (x), y) be the loss function on f when the training input x is labeled as y. In this paper we restrict `1 to be convex in its first argument, e.g. logistic loss, hinge loss, and squared loss. We measure deviations from local invariances around each labeled or unlabeled input instance, and express them as bounded linear functionals Ll+1 (f ), . . . , Ll+m (f ) on the RKHS H. The linear functionals are associated with another convex loss function `2 (Li (f )) penalizing violations of the local invariances. As an example, the derivative of f with respect to an input feature at some training instance x is a linear functional in f , and the loss function penalizes large values of the derivative at x using, e.g., squared loss, absolute loss, and -insensitive loss. Section 4 describes other local invariances we can consider and shows that these can be expressed as bounded linear functionals. Finally, we penalize the complexity of f via the squared RKHS norm kf k2 . Putting together the loss and regularizer, we set out to minimize the regularized risk functional over f ? H: l l+m X X 1 min kf k2 + ? `1 (f (xi ), yi ) + ? `2 (Li (f )) , (2) f ?H 2 i=1 i=l+1 where ?, ? > 0. By the convexity of `1 and `2 , (2) must be a convex optimization problem. However it is still in the function space and involves functionals. In order to derive an efficient optimization procedure, we now derive a representer theorem showing that the optimal solution lies in the span of a finite number of functions associated with the labeled data and the representers of the functionals Li . Similar results are available in [22]. Theorem 2. Let H be the RKHS defined by the kernel k. Let Li (i = l + 1, . . . , l + m) be bounded linear functionals on H with representers zi . Then the optimal solution to (2) must be in the form of l l+m X X g(?) = ?i k(xi , ?) + ?i zi (?) (3) i=1 i=l+1 Furthermore, the parameters ? = (?1 , . . . , ?l+m )0 (finite dimensional) can be found by minimizing l l+m l l+m X X X X 1 ? `1 (hk(xi , ?), f i , yi ) + ? `2 (hzi , f i) + ?0 K?, where f = ?i k(xi , ?) + ?i zi . (4) 2 i=1 i=1 i=l+1 i=l+1 Here Kij = hk?i , k?j i, where k?i = k(xi , ?) if i ? l, and k?i = zi (?) otherwise. (Proof is in Appendix A.) 3 Theorem 2 is similar to the results in [18, Proposition 3] and [19, Eq 8], where the optimal function lies in the span of a finite number of representers. However, our model is quite different in that it uses the representers of the linear functionals corresponding to the invariance, rather than virtual samples drawn from the invariant neighborhood. This could result in more compact models because the invariance (e.g. rotation) is enforced by a single representer, rather than multiple virtual examples (e.g. various degrees of rotation) drawn from the trajectory of invariant transforms. By the expansion of f in (4), the labeling of a new instance x depends not only on k(x, xi ) that often measures the similarity between x and training examples, but also takes into account the extent to which k(x, ?), as a function, conforms to the prior invariances. Computationally, hk(xi , ?), zj i is straightforward based on the definition of Lj . The efficient computation of hzi , zj i depends on the specific kernels and invariances, as we will show in Section 4. In the simplest case, consider the commonly used graph LaplacianPregularizer [10, 11] which, given the similarity measure wij between xi and xj , can be written as ij wij (f (xi ) ? f (xj ))2 = P 2 ij wij (Lij (f )) , where Lij (f ) = hf, k(xi , ?) ? k(xj , ?)i is linear and bounded. Then hzij , zpq i = k(xi , xp ) + k(xj , xq ) ? k(xj , xp ) ? k(xi , xq ). Another generic approach is to use the assumption in Example 3 that hzs , f i = Ls (f ) = Ts (f )(xs ), ?s ? {i, j}. Then hzi , zj i = Li (zj ) = Ti (zj )(xi ) = hTi (zj ), k(xi , ?)i = hzj , Ti? (k(xi , ?))i = Tj (Ti? (k(xi , ?)))(xj ). (5) In practice, classifiers such as the support vector machine often use an additional constant term (bias) that is not penalized in the optimization. This is equivalent to searching f over F + H, where F is a finite set of basis functions. A similar representer theorem can be established (see Appendix A). 4 Local Invariances as Bounded Linear Functionals Interestingly, many useful local invariances can be modeled as bounded linear functionals. If it can be expressed in terms of function values f (x), then it must be bounded as shown in Example 1. In general, boundedness hinges on the functional and the RKHS H. When H is finite dimensional, such as that induced by linear or polynomial kernels, all linear functionals on H must be bounded: Theorem 3 ([29, Thm 2.7-8]). Linear functionals on finite dimensional normed space are bounded. However, in most nonparametric statistics problems that are of interest, the RKHS is infinite dimensional. So the boundedness requires a more refined analysis depending on the specific functional. 4.1 Differentiation Functional In semi-supervised learning, a common prior is that the discriminant function f does not change rapidly around sampled points. Therefore, we expect the norm of the gradient at these locations is small. Suppose X ? Rn is an open set, and k is continuously differentiable on X2 . Then we are (x) interested in linear functionals Lxi ,d (f ) := ?f | , where xd stands for the d-th component of ?xd x=xi the vector x. Then Lxi ,d must be bounded: Theorem 4. Lxi ,d is bounded on H with respect to the RKHS norm. Proof. This result is immediate from the inequality given by [28, Corollary 4.36]:  21  ?2 ? ? kf k .  f (x) k(x, y) ?xd x=xi ?xd ?y d x=y=xi Let us denote the representer of Lxi ,d as zi,d . Indeed, [28, Corollary 4.36] established the same result for higher order partial derivatives, which can be easily used in our framework as well. The inner product between representers can be computed by definition: ? ? ? 2 hzi,d , zj,d0 i = z (y) = hz , k(y, ?)i = k(x, y). (6) i,d i,d ?y d0 y=xj ?y d0 y=xj ?y d0 ?xd x=xi ,y=xj If k is considered as a function on (x, y) ? R2n , this implies that the inner product hzi,d , zj,d0 i is the 0 (xd , y d )-th element of the Hessian of k evaluated at (xi , xj ), which could be interpreted as some sort of ?covariance? between the two invariances with respect to the touchstone function k. Applying (6) to the polynomial kernel k(x, y) = (hx, yi + 1)r , we derive 0 hzi,d , zj,d0 i = r(hxi , xj i + 1)r?2 [(r ? 1)xdi xdj + (hxi , xj i + 1)?d=d0 ], 4 (7) where ?d=d0 = 1 if d = d0 , and 0 otherwise. For Gaussian kernels k(x, y) = ?? (x, y), we can take ?f another path that is different from (6). Note that Lxi ,d (f ) = T (f )(xi ) where T : f 7? ?x d , and it is straightforward to verify that T is bounded with T ? = ?T for Gaussian RKHS. So applying (5),   0 0 ? k(xi , xj ) 2 ? 0 hzi,d , zj,d i = ? d k(xi , y) = [? ?d=d0 ? (xdi ? xdj )(xdi ? xdj )]. (8) ?y d0 y=xj ?y ?4 p By Theorem 1, it immediately follows that the norm of Lxi ,d is hzi,d , zi,d i = 1/?. 4.2 Transformation Invariance Invariance to known local transformations of input has been used successfully in supervised learning [3]. Here we show that transformation invariance can be handled in our framework via representers in RKHS. In particular, gradients with respect to the transformations are bounded linear functionals. Following [3], we first require a differentiable function g that maps points from a space S to R, where S lies in a Euclidean space.3 For example, an image can be considered as a function g that maps points in the plane S = R2 to the intensity of the image at that point. Next, we consider a family of bijective transformations t? : S 7? S, which is differentiable in both the input and the (1) parameter ?. For instance, translation, rotation, and scaling can be represented as mappings t? , (3) (2) t? , and t? respectively:   (1)     (2)     (3)   x t? x + ?x x t? x cos ? ? y sin ? x t? x + ?x 7?? , 7?? , 7?? . y y + ?y y x sin ? ? y cos ? y y + ?y Based on t? , we define a family of operators T? : RS ? RS as T? (g) = g ? t?1 ? . The function T? (g)(x, y) gives us the intensity at location (x, y) of the image translated by an offset (?x , ?y ), rotated by an angle ?, or scaled by an amount ?. Finally we sample from S a fixed number of locations S := {s1 , . . . , sq }, and present to the learning algorithm a vector I(g, ?; S) := (T? (g)(s1 )0 , . . . , T? (g)(sq )0 )0 . Digital images are discretization of real images where we sample at fixed pixel locations of the function g to obtain a fixed sized vector. Clearly, for a fixed g, the sampled observation I(g, ?; S) is a vector valued function of ?. The following result allows our framework to use derivatives with respect to the parameters in ?. Theorem 5. Let F be a normed vector space of functions that map from the range of I(g, ?; S) to R. Suppose the linear functional that maps f ? F to ?f?u(u) is bounded for any u0 and coordinate j u=u0 ? j, and its norm is denoted as Cj . Then the functional Lg,d,S : f 7? ?? d ?=0 f (I(g, ?; S)), i.e. derivatives with respect to each of the components in ?, must be bounded linear functionals on F. Proof. Let I j (g, ?; S) be the j-th component of I(g, ?; S). Using the chain rule, for any f ? F q j ?f (I(g, ?; S)) X ?f (u) ?I (g, ?; S) = |Lg,d,S (f )| = ? d j d ?? ?? j=1 ?u u=I(g,0;S) ?=0 ?=0 j j q q X X ?I (g, ?; S) ?I (g, ?; S) = kf k ? . (by definition of kf k) ? (Cj kf k) ? C j d d ?? ?? ?=0 ?=0 j=1 j=1 The proof is completed by noting that the last summation is a finite constant independent of f .  ? Corollary 1. The derivatives ?? f (I(g, ?; S)) with respect to each of the component in ? are d ?=0 bounded linear functionals on the RKHS defined by the polynomial and Gaussian kernels. To compute the inner product between representers,Dlet zg,d,S be the representer ofELg,d,S and denote ? |?=0 . Then hk(x, ?), zg,d,S i = ?y k(x, y), vg,d,S and vg,d,S = ?I(g,?;S) ??d y=I(g,0,S)    ? ? 0 0 0 0 0 0 hzg,d,S , zg ,d ,S i = vg,d,S , vg ,d ,S , k(x, y) . (9) ?x x=I(g,0,S) ?y y=I(g0 ,0,S 0 ) 3 In practice, S can be a discrete domain such as the pixel coordinate of an image. Then g can be extended to an interpolated continuous space via convolution with a Gaussian. See [3, ? 2.3] for more details. 5 4.3 Local Averaging Using gradients to enforce the local invariance that the target function does not change much around data instances increases the number of basis functions by a factor of n, where n is the number of gradient directions that we use. The optimization problem can become computationally expensive if n is large. When we do not have useful information about the invariant directions, it may be useful to have methods that do not increase theZnumber of basis functions by much. Consider functionals Lxi (f ) = f (? )p(xi ? ? )d? ? f (xi ), (10) X where p(?) is a probability density function centered at zero. Minimizing a loss with such linear functionals will favor functions whose local averages given by the integral are close to the function values at data instances. If p(?) is selected to be a low pass filter, the function should be smoother and less likely to change in regions with more data points but is less constrained to be smooth in regions where the data points are sparse. Hence, such loss functions may be appropriate when we believe that data instances from the same class are clustered together. To use the framework we have developed, we need to select the probability density p(?) and the kernel k such that Lxi (f ) is a bounded linear functional. Theorem 6. Assume there is a constant C > 0 such that k(x, x) ? C 2 for all x ? X. Then the linear functional Lxi in (10) is bounded in the RKHS defined by k for any probability density p(?). See proof in Appendix B. As a result, radial kernels such as Gaussian and exponential kernels make Lxi bounded. k(x, x) is not bounded for polynomial kernel, but it has been covered by Theorem 3. To allow for efficient implementation, the inner product between representers of invariances must be computed efficiently. Unlike differentiation, integration often does not result in a closed form expression. Fortunately, analytic evaluation is feasible for the Gaussian kernel ?? (xi , xj ) together ? with the Gaussian density function p(x) = (? 2?)?n ?? (x, 0), because the convolution of two Gaussian densities is still a Gaussian density (see derivation in Appendix B): hzxi , zxj i = ?? (xi , xj ) + (1 + 2?/?)?n ??+2? (xi , xj ) ? 2(1 + ?/?)?n ??+? (xi , xj ). 5 Optimization The objective (2) can be optimized by many algorithms, such as stochastic gradient [30], bundle method [19, 31], and (randomized) coordinate descent in its dual (4) [32]. Since all computational strategies rely on kernel evaluation, we prefer the dual approach. In particular, (4) allows an unconstrained optimization and the nonsmooth regions in `1 or `2 can be easily approximated by smooth surrogates [33]. So without loss of generality, we assume `1 and `2 are smooth. Our approach can work in both batch and coordinate-wise, depending on the scale of different problems. In the batch setting, the major challenge is the cost in computing the gradient when the number of invariance is large. For example, consider all derivatives at all labeled examples x1 , . . . , xl and let N = (hzi,d0 , zj,d0 i)(i,d),(j,d0 ) ? Rnl?nl as in (8). Then given ? = (?01 , . . . , ?0l )0 ? Rnl , the bottleneck of computation is g := N ?, which costs O(l2 n2 ) time and O(l2 n2 ) space to store N in a vanilla implementation. However, since the kernel matrices often employ rich structures, a careful treatment can reduce the cost by an order of magnitude, e.g. into O(l2 n) time and O(nl+l2 ) space in this case. Specifically, denote K = (k(xi , xj ))ij ? Rl?l , and three n?l matrices X = (x1 , . . . , xl ), A = (?1 , . . . , ?l ), and G = (gd,i ). Then one can show   G = ? ?4 ? 2 AK + XQ ? X ? (1n ? 10l Q) , where Qij = Kij (?ji ? ?ii ), ? = X 0 A. (11) Here ? stands for Hadamard product, and ? is Kronecker product. 1n ? Rn is a vector of straight one. The computational cost is dominated by X 0 A, AK, and XQ, which are all O(l2 n). When the number of invariance is huge, a batch solver can be slow and coordinate-wise updates can be more efficient. In each iteration, it picks a coordinate in ? and optimizes the objective over all the coordinates picked so far, leaving the rest elements to zero. [32] selected the coordinate randomly, while another strategy is to choose the steepest descent coordinate. Clearly, it is useful only when this selection can be performed efficiently, which depends heavily on the structure of the problem. 6 Experimental Result We compared our approach, which is henceforth referred to as InvSVM,with state-of-the-art methods 6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 ?0.2 ?0.2 ?0.2 ?0.2 ?0.4 ?0.4 ?0.4 ?0.4 ?0.6 ?0.6 ?1 ?0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1.2 ?0.6 ?1 ?0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 ?0.6 ?1 ?0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 ?1 ?0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Figure 1: Decision boundary for the two moon dataset with ? = 0, 0.01, 0.1, and 1 (left to right). in (semi-)supervised learning using invariance to differentiation and transformation. 6.1 Invariance to Differentiation: Transduction on Two Moon Dataset As a proof of concept, we experimented with the ?two moon? dataset shown in Figure 1, with only l = 2 labeled data instances (red circle and black square). We used the Gaussian kernel with ? = 0.25 and the gradient invariances on both labeled and unlabeled data. The loss `1 and `2 are logistic and squared loss respectively, with ? = 1, and ? ? {0, 0.01, 0.1, 1}. (4) was minimized by a L-BFGS solver [34]. In Figure 1, from left to right our method lays more and more emphasis on placing the separation boundary in low density regions, which allows unlabeled data to improve the classification accuracy. We also tried hinge loss for `1 and -insensitive loss for `2 with similar classification results. 6.2 Invariance to Differentiation: Semi-supervised Learning on Real-world Data. Datasets. We used 9 datasets for binary classification from [4] and the UCI repository [35]. The number of features (n) and instances (t) are given in Table 1. All feature vectors were normalized to zero mean and unit length. Algorithms. We trained InvSVM with hinge loss for `1 and squared loss for `2 . The differentiation invariance was used over the whole dataset, i.e. m = nt in (4), and the gradient computation was accelerated by (11). We compared InvSVM with the standard SVM, and a state-of-the-art semisupervised learning algorithm LapSVM [36], which uses manifold regularization based on graph Laplacian [11, 37]. All three algorithms used Gaussian kernel with the bandwidth ? set to be the median of pairwise distance among all instances. Settings. We trained SVM, LapSVM, and InvSVM on a subset of l ? {30, 60, 90} labeled examples, and compared their test error on the other t ? l examples in each dataset. We used 5 fold stratified cross validation (CV) to select the values of ? and ? for InvSVM. CV was also applied to LapSVM for choosing the number of nearest neighbor for graph construction, weight on the Laplacian regularizer, and the standard RKHS norm regularizer. For each fold of CV, InvSVM and LapSVM used the other 4 folds ( 54 l points) as labeled data, and the remaining t ? 45 l points as unlabeled data. The error on the 51 l points was then used for CV. Finally the random selection of l labeled examples was repeated for 10 times, and we reported the mean test error and standard deviation. Results. It is clear from Table 1 that in most cases InvSVM achieves lower or similar test error compared to SVM and LapSVM. Both LapSVM and InvSVM are implementations of the low density prior. To this end, LapSVM enforces smoothness of the discrimination function over neighboring instances, while InvSVM directly penalizes the gradient at instances and does not require a notion of neighborhood. The lower error of InvSVM suggests the superiority of the use of gradient, which is enabled by our representer based approach. Besides, SVM often performs quite well when the number of labeled data is large, with similar error as LapSVM. But still, InvSVM can attain even lower error. 6.3 Transformation Invariance Next we study the use of transformation invariance for supervised learning. We used the handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset [38] and compared InvSVM with the virtual sample SVM (VirSVM) which constructs additional instances by applying the following transformations to the training data: 2-pixel shifts in 4 directions, rotations by ?10 degrees, scaling by ?0.1 unit, and shearing in vertical ? |?=0 I(g, ?; S) was approximated or horizontal axis by ?0.1 unit. For InvSVM, the derivative ?? with the difference that results from the above transformation. We considered binary classification problems by choosing four pairs of digits (4-vs-9, 2-vs-3, and 6-vs-5 are hard, while 7-vs-1 is 7 Table 1: Test error of SVM, LapSVM, and InvSVM for semi-supervised learning. The best result (including tie) that is statistically significant in each setting is highlighted in bold. No number is highlighted if there is no significant difference between the three methods. heart (n = 13, t = 270) BCI (n = 117, t = 400) bupa (n = 6, t = 245) l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 SVM 23.5?2.08 21.4?0.23 20.0?1.11 44.6?1.89 39.0?3.41 34.6?3.25 36.2?5.53 37.9?5.80 36.9?1.80 LapSVM 23.2?1.68 22.7?1.92 20.7?2.10 44.8?2.72 45.4?2.25 36.1?3.92 36.6?5.98 40.7?4.05 37.1?1.58 InvSVM 22.3?1.27 20.2?1.01 19.6?2.79 45.3?3.59 38.4?4.41 32.7?2.27 38.2?4.46 35.4?1.85 35.2?0.45 Method g241c (n = 241, t = 1500) g241n (n = 241, t = 1500) Australian (n = 14, t = 690) l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 SVM 32.9?1.59 27.1?0.92 24.8?1.99 34.6?2.52 28.3?2.65 25.6?1.48 20.6?4.18 21.7?11.3 15.3?0.86 LapSVM 37.1?1.25 28.4?2.44 29.7?1.57 37.7?5.76 29.9?2.41 25.9?1.49 21.9?9.27 15.6?2.49 14.7?0.16 InvSVM 33.1?0.49 26.4?1.14 23.4?1.36 35.4?1.57 28.4?3.03 22.3?4.69 17.7?1.74 16.4?1.11 15.6?0.77 ionosphere (n = 34, t = 351) sonar (n = 60, t = 208) USPS (n = 241, t = 1500) l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 l = 30 l = 60 l = 90 SVM 12.5?3.12 8.71?1.62 7.17?1.67 30.9?2.53 22.7?0.39 20.6?4.81 14.9?0.26 12.6?2.04 11.3?2.06 LapSVM 14.9?1.73 9.05?1.05 7.66?1.53 29.4?2.33 22.9?0.17 24.9?1.29 15.3?1.10 12.3?1.74 11.1?1.81 InvSVM 7.58?1.29 7.90?0.23 7.02?0.88 31.6?4.68 24.1?2.06 21.8?3.91 15.4?4.02 12.2?2.93 11.3?1.63 5 5 10 15 Error of VirSVM (a) 4 (pos) vs 9 (neg) 7 6 5 4 4 6 8 Error of VirSVM Error of InvSVM 10 2 10 8 Error of InvSVM Error of InvSVM Error of InvSVM 15 8 6 4 5 10 Error of VirSVM (b) 2 (pos) vs 3 (neg) (c) 6 (pos) vs 5 (neg) 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 Error of VirSVM (d) 7 (pos) vs 1 (neg) Figure 2: Test error (in percentage) of InvSVM versus SVM with virtual sample. easier). As the real distribution of digit is imbalanced and invariance is more useful when the number of labeled data is low, we randomly chose n+ = 50 labeled images for one class and n? = the supervised loss was normalized within each class: P10 images for the other.?1Accordingly P n?1 ` (f (x ), 1) + n ` i + ? i:yi =1 1 i:yi =?1 1 (f (xi ), ?1). Logistic loss and -insensitive loss were used for `1 and `2 respectively. All parameters were set by 5 fold CV and the test error was measured on the rest images in the dataset. The whole process was repeated for 20 times. In Figure 2, InvSVM generally yields lower error than VirSVM, which suggests that compared with drawing virtural samples from the invariance, it seems more effective to directly enforce a flat gradient like in [3]. 7 Conclusion and Discussion We have shown how to model local invariances by using representers in RKHS. This subsumes a wide range of invariances that are useful in practice, and the formulation can be optimized efficiently. For future work, it will be interesting to extend the framework to a broader range of learning tasks. A potential application is to the problem of imbalanced data learning, where one wishes to keep the decision boundary further away from instances of the minority class and closer to the instances of majority class. It will also be interesting to generalize the framework to invariances that are not Rb directly linear. For example, the total variation `(f ) := a |f 0 (x)| dx (a, b ? R) is not linear, but we can treat the integral of absolute value as a loss function and take the derivative as the linear Rb functional: Lx (f ) = f 0 (x) and `(f ) = a |Lx (f )| dx. As a result, the optimization may have to resort to sparse approximation methods. Finally the norm of the linear functional does affect the optimization efficiency, and a detailed analysis will be useful for choosing the linear functionals. 8 References [1] G. E. Hinton. Learning translation invariant recognition in massively parallel networks. In Proceedings Conference on Parallel Architectures and Laguages Europe, pages 1?13. Springer, 1987. [2] M. Ferraro and T. M. Caelli. Lie transformation groups, integral transforms, and invariant pattern recognition. Spatial Vision, 8:33?44, 1994. [3] P. Simard, Y. LeCun, J. S. Denker, and B. Victorri. Transformation invariance in pattern recognitiontangent distance and tangent propagation. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, pages 239?274, 1996. [4] O. Chapelle, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Zien, editors. Semi-Supervised Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [5] S. Ben-David, T. Lu, and D. Pal. Does unlabeled data provably help? Worst-case analysis of the sample complexity of semi-supervised learning. In COLT, 2008. [6] T. Zhang and F. J. Oles. A probability analysis on the value of unlabeled data for classification problems. In ICML, 2000. [7] O. Bousquet, O. Chapelle, and M. Hein. Measure based regularization. In NIPS, 2003. [8] T. Joachims. Transductive inference for text classification using support vector machines. In ICML, 1999. [9] A. Blum and S. Chawla. Learning from labeled and unlabeled data using graph mincuts. In ICML, 2001. [10] M. Belkin, P. Niyogi, and V. Sindhwani. On manifold regularization. In AI-Stats, 2005. [11] X. Zhu, Z. Ghahramani, and J. D. Lafferty. Semi-supervised learning using gaussian fields and harmonic functions. In ICML, 2003. [12] D. Zhou and B. Sch?olkopf. Discrete regularization. In Semi-Supervised Learning, pages 221?232. MIT Press, 2006. [13] H. Xu, C. Caramanis, and S. Mannor. Robustness and regularization of support vector machines. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:3589?3646, 2009. [14] A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, and A. Nemirovski. Robust Optimization. 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Technical Report TR 1020, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2000. [23] A. J. Smola and B. Sch?olkopf. On a kernel-based method for pattern recognition, regression, approximation and operator inversion. Algorithmica, 22:211?231, 1998. [24] C. Walder and O. Chapelle. Learning with transformation invariant kernels. In NIPS, 2007. [25] C. Burges. Geometry and invariance in kernel based methods. In B. Sch?olkopf, C. Burges, and A. Smola, editors, Advances in Kernel Methods ? Support Vector Learning, pages 89?116. MIT Press, 1999. [26] B. Sch?olkopf and A. Smola. Learning with Kernels. MIT Press, 2001. [27] N. Cristianini and J. Shawe-Taylor. An Introduction to Support Vector Machines and Other Kernel-based Learning Methods. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000. [28] I. Steinwart and A. Christmann. Support Vector Machines. Information Science and Statistics. Springer, 2008. [29] E. Kreyszig. Introductory Functional Analysis with Applications. Wiley, 1989. [30] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal estimated sub-gradient solver for SVM. In ICML, 2007. [31] C. H. Teo, S. V. N. Vishwanthan, A. J. Smola, and Q. V. Le. Bundle methods for regularized risk minimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:311?365, January 2010. [32] Y. Nesterov. Efficiency of coordinate descent methods on huge-scale optimization problems. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 22(2):341?362, 2012. [33] O. Chapelle. Training a support vector machine in the primal. Neural Comput., 19(5):1155?1178, 2007. [34] http://www.cs.ubc.ca/?pcarbo/lbfgsb-for-matlab.html. [35] K. Bache and M. Lichman. UCI machine learning repository, 2013. University of California, Irvine. [36] http://www.dii.unisi.it/?melacci/lapsvmp. [37] V. Sindhwani, P. Niyogi, and M. Belkin. Beyond the point cloud: from transductive to semi-supervised learning. In ICML, 2005. [38] http://www.cs.nyu.edu/?roweis/data.html. 9
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Learning Kernels Using Local Rademacher Complexity Corinna Cortes Google Research 76 Ninth Avenue New York, NY 10011 [email protected] Marius Kloft? Courant Institute & Sloan-Kettering Institute 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 [email protected] Mehryar Mohri Courant Institute & Google Research 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 [email protected] Abstract We use the notion of local Rademacher complexity to design new algorithms for learning kernels. Our algorithms thereby benefit from the sharper learning bounds based on that notion which, under certain general conditions, guarantee a faster convergence rate. We devise two new learning kernel algorithms: one based on a convex optimization problem for which we give an efficient solution using existing learning kernel techniques, and another one that can be formulated as a DC-programming problem for which we describe a solution in detail. We also report the results of experiments with both algorithms in both binary and multi-class classification tasks. 1 Introduction Kernel-based algorithms are widely used in machine learning and have been shown to often provide very effective solutions. For such algorithms, the features are provided intrinsically via the choice of a positive-semi-definite symmetric kernel function, which can be interpreted as a similarity measure in a high-dimensional Hilbert space. In the standard setting of these algorithms, the choice of the kernel is left to the user. That choice is critical since a poor choice, as with a sub-optimal choice of features, can make learning very challenging. In the last decade or so, a number of algorithms and theoretical results have been given for a wider setting known as that of learning kernels or multiple kernel learning (MKL) (e.g., [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]). That setting, instead of demanding from the user to take the risk of specifying a particular kernel function, only requires from him to provide a family of kernels. Both tasks of selecting the kernel out of that family of kernels and choosing a hypothesis based on that kernel are then left to the learning algorithm. One of the most useful data-dependent complexity measures used in the theoretical analysis and design of learning kernel algorithms is the notion of Rademacher complexity (e.g., [7, 8]). Tight learning bounds based on this notion were given in [2], improving earlier results of [4, 9, 10]. These generalization bounds provide a strong theoretical foundation for a family of learning kernel algorithms based on a non-negative linear combination of base kernels. Most of these algorithms, whether for binary classification or multi-class classification, are based on controlling the trace of the combined kernel matrix. This paper seeks to use a finer notion of complexity for the design of algorithms for learning kernels: the notion of local Rademacher complexity [11, 12]. One shortcoming of the general notion of Rademacher complexity is that it does not take into consideration the fact that, typically, the hypotheses selected by a learning algorithm have a better performance than in the worst case and belong to a more favorable sub-family of the set of all hypotheses. The notion of local Rademacher complexity is precisely based on this idea by considering Rademacher averages of smaller subsets of the hypothesis set. It leads to sharper learning bounds which, under certain general conditions, guarantee a faster convergence rate. ? Alternative address: Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 415 E 68th street, New York, NY 10065, USA. Email: [email protected]. 1 We show how the notion of local Rademacher complexity can be used to guide the design of new algorithms for learning kernels. For kernel-based hypotheses, the local Rademacher complexity can be both upper- and lower-bounded in terms of the tail sum of the eigenvalues of the kernel matrix [13]. This motivates the introduction of two natural families of hypotheses based on non-negative combinations of base kernels with kernels constrained by a tail sum of the eigenvalues. We study and compare both families of hypotheses and derive learning kernel algorithms based on both. For the first family of hypotheses, the algorithm is based on a convex optimization problem. We show how that problem can be solved using optimization solutions for existing learning kernel algorithms. For the second hypothesis set, we show that the problem can be formulated as a DC-programming (difference of convex functions programming) problem and describe in detail our solution. We report empirical results for both algorithms in both binary and multi-class classification tasks. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we present some background on the notion of local Rademacher complexity by summarizing the main results relevant to our theoretical analysis and the design of our algorithms. Section 3 describes and analyzes two new kernel learning algorithms, as just discussed. In Section 4, we give strong theoretical guarantees in support of both algorithms. In Section 5, we report the results of preliminary experiments, in a series of both binary classification and multi-class classification tasks. 2 Background on local Rademacher complexity In this section, we present an introduction to local Rademacher complexities and related properties. 2.1 Core ideas and definitions We consider the standard set-up of supervised learning where the learner receives a sample z1 = (x1 , y1 ), . . . , zn = (xn , yn ) of size n 1 drawn i.i.d. from a probability distribution P over Z = X ? Y. Let F be a set of functions mapping from X to Y, and let l : Y ? Y ! [0, 1] be a loss function. The learning problem is that of selecting a function f 2 F with small risk or expected loss E[l(f (x), y)]. Let G := l(F, ?) denote the loss class, then, this is equivalent to finding a function g 2 G with small average E[g]. For convenience, in what follows, we assume that the infimum of E[g] over G is reached and denote by g ? 2 argming2G E[g] the most accurate predictor in G. When the infimum is not reached, in the following results, E[g ? ] can be equivalently replaced by inf g2G E[g]. Definition 1. Let 1 , . . . , n be an i.i.d. family of Rademacher variables taking values 1 and +1 with equal probability independent of the sample (z1 , . . . , zn ). Then, the global Rademacher complexity of G is defined as ? n 1X Rn (G) := E sup i g(zi ) . g2G n i=1 Generalization bounds based on the notion of Rademacher complexity are standard [7]. In particular, for the empirical risk minimization (ERM) hypothesis gbn , for any > 0, the following bound holds with probability at least 1 : s 2 log 2 b E[b gn ] E[g ? ] ? 2 sup E[g] E[g] ? 4Rn (G) + . (1) n g2G p Rn (G) is in the order of O(1/ n) for various classes used in practice, including when F is a kernel class with bounded p trace and when the loss l is Lipschitz. In such cases, the bound (1) converges at rate O(1/ n). For some classes G, we may, however, obtain fast rates of up to O(1/n). The following presentation is based on [12]. Using Talagrand?s inequality, one can show that with probability at least 1 , s 8 log 2 3 log 2 E[b gn ] E[g ? ] ? 8Rn (G) + ?(G) + . (2) n n Here, ?2 (G) := supg2G E[g 2 ] is a bound on the variance of the functions in G. The key idea to obtain fast rates is to choose a much smaller class Gn? ? G with as small a variance as possible, while requiring that gbn still lies in Gn? . Since such a small class can also have a substantially smaller Rademacher complexity Rn (Gn? ), the bound (2) can be sharper than (1). But how can we find a small class Gn? that is just large enough to contain gbn ? We give some further background on how to construct such a class in the supplementary material section 1. It turns out 2 Figure P1: Illustration of the bound (3). The volume of the gray shaded area amounts to the term ?r + j>? j occurring in (3). The left- and right-most figures show the cases of ? too small or too large, and the center figure the case corresponding to the appropriate value of ?. that the order of convergence of E[b gn ] E[g ? ] is determined by the order of the fixed point of the local Rademacher complexity, defined below. Definition 2. For any r > 0, the local Rademacher complexity of G is defined as Rn (G; r) := Rn g 2 G : E[g 2 ] ? r . If the local Rademacher complexity is known, it can be used to compare gbn with g ? , as E[b gn ] E[g ? ] can be bounded in terms of the fixed point of the Rademacher complexity of F, besides constantspand O(1/n) terms. But, while the global Rademacher complexity is generally of the order of O(1/ n) at best, its local counterpart can converge at orders up to O(1/n). We give an example of such a class?particularly relevant for this paper?below. 2.2 Kernel classes The local Rademacher complexity for kernel classes can be accurately described and shown to admit a simple expression in terms of the eigenvalues of the kernel [13] (cf. also Theorem 6.5 in [11]). Theorem 3. Let k be a Mercer kernel P1with corresponding feature map k and reproducing kernel Hilbert space Hk . Let k(x, x ?) = j=1 j 'j (x)> 'j (? x) be its eigenvalue decomposition, where 1 ( i )i=1 is the sequence of eigenvalues arranged in descending order. Let F := {fw = (x 7! hw, k (x)i) : kwkHk ? 1}. Then, for every r > 0, v s u X ? X ? u2 1 2 E[R(F; r)] ? min ?r + = t min(r, j ). (3) j n ? 0 n j=1 j>? 1 Moreover, there is an absolute constant c such that, if 1 n , then for every r 1 c X p min(r, j ) ? E[R(F; r)]. n j=1 1 n, We summarize the proof of this result in the supplementary material section 2. In view of (3), the local Rademacher complexity for kernel classes is determined by the tail sum of the eigenvalues. A core idea of the proof is to optimize over the ?cut-off point? ? of the tail sum of the eigenvalues in the bound. Solving for the optimal ?, gives a bound in terms of truncated eigenvalues, which is illustrated in Figure 1. Consider, for instance, the special case where the familiar upper bound pr = 1. We can then recover P on the Rademacher complexity: Rn (F) ? Tr(k)/n. But, when j>? j = O(exp( ?)), as in the case of Gaussian kernels [14], then ? ? O min ?r + exp( ?) = O(r log(1/r)). ? 0 p Therefore, we have R(F; r) = O( nr log(1/r)), which has the fixed point r? = O( log(n) n ). Thus, by Theorem 8 (shown in the supplemental material), we have E[b gn ] E[g ? ] = O( log(n) n ), which yields a much stronger learning guarantee. 3 Algorithms In this section, we will use the properties of the local Rademacher complexity just discussed to devise a novel family of algorithms for learning kernels. 3 3.1 Motivation and analysis Most learning kernel algorithms are based on a family of hypotheses based on a kernel k? = PM m=1 ?m km that is a non-negative linear combination of M base kernels. This is described by the following hypothesis class: H := fw,k? = x 7! hw, k? (x)i : kwkHk ? ?, ? ? 0 . ? It is known that the Rademacher complexity of H can be upper-bounded in terms of the trace of the combined kernel. Thus, most existing algorithms for learning kernels [1, 4, 6] add the following constraint to restrict H: Tr(k? ) ? 1. (4) As we saw in the previous section, however, the tail sum of the eigenvalues of the kernel, rather than its trace, determines the local Rademacher complexity. Since the local Rademacher complexity can lead to tighter generalization bounds than the global Rademacher complexity, this motivates us to consider the following hypothesis class for learning kernels: X H1 := fw,k? 2 H : j (k? ) ? 1 . j>? Here, ? is a free parameter controlling the tail sum. The trace is a linear function and thus the constraint P (4) defines a half-space, therefore a convex set, in the space of kernels. The function k 7! j>? j (k), however, is concave since it can be expressed as the difference of the trace and the sum of the ? largest eigenvalues, which is a convex function. Nevertheless, the following upper bound holds, denoting ? ?m := ?m / k?k1 , ? M M M X X X X X ?X ?m ? ?m ? ?m k?k1 km , j (km ) = j (k?k1 km ) ? j m=1 j>? m=1 j>? j>? m=1 | {z =k? (5) } where the equality holds by linearity and the inequality by the concavity just discussed. This leads us to consider alternatively the following class ? M X X H2 := fw,k? 2 H : ?m j (km ) ? 1 . m=1 j>? The class H2 is convex because it is the restriction of the convex class H via a linear inequality constraint. H2 is thus more convenient to work with. The following proposition helps us compare these two families. Proposition 4. The following statements hold for the sets H1 and H2 : 1. (a) H1 ? H2 2. (b) If ? = 0, then H1 = H2 . 3. (c) Let ? > 0. There exist kernels k1 , . . . , kM and a probability measure P such that H 1 ( H2 . The proposition shows that, in general, the convex class H2 can be larger than H1 . The following result shows that in general an even stronger result holds. Proposition 5. Let ? > 0. There exist kernels k1 , . . . , kM and a probability measure P such that conv(H1 ) ( H2 . The proofs of these propositions are given in the supplemental material. These results show that in general H2 could be a richer class than H1 and even its convex hull. This would suggest working with H1 to further limit the risk of overfitting, however, as already pointed out, H2 is more convenient since it is a convex class. Thus, in the next section, we will consider both hypothesis sets and introduce two distinct learning kernel algorithms, each based on one of these families. 3.2 Convex optimization algorithm The simpler algorithm performs regularized empirical risk minimization based on the convex class H2 . Note that by a renormalization of the kernels k1 , . . . , kM , according to k?m := P PM ( j>? j (km )) 1 km and k?? = m=1 ?m k?m , we can simply rewrite H2 as ? ? 2 := f ? = (x 7! hw, ? (x)i), kwk H2 = H (6) H ? ? ?, ? ? 0, k?k1 ? 1 , w,k? k? k? 4 which is the commonly studied hypothesis class in multiple kernel learning. Of course, in practice, we replace the empirical version of the kernel k by the kernel matrix K = (k(xi , xj ))ni,j=1 , and consider 1 , . . . , n as the eigenvalues of the kernel matrix and not of the kernel itself. Hence, we can easily exploit existing software solutions: P 1. For all m = 1, . . . , M , compute j>? j (Km ); ? 2. For P all m = 11, . . . , M , normalize the kernel matrices according to Km ( j>? j (Km )) Km ; := 3. Use any of the many existing (`1 -norm) MKL solvers to compute the minimizer of ERM ? 2. over H Note that the tail sum can be computed in O(n2 ?) for each kernel because it is sufficient to compute P P? the ? largest eigenvalues and the trace: j>? j (Km ) = Tr(Km ) j=1 j (Km ). 3.3 DC-programming In the more challenging case, we perform penalized ERM over the class H1 , that is, we aim to solve n X X 1 2 min kwkHK + C l(yi fw,K? (xi )) s.t. (7) j (K? ) ? 1 . ? w 2 i=1 j>? P This is a convex optimization problem with an additional concave constraint j>? j (K? ) ? 1. This constraint is not differentiable, but it admits a subdifferential at any point ?0 2 RM . Denote the subdifferential of the function ? 7! j (K? ) by @?0 j (K?0 ) := {v 2 RM : j (K? ) j (K?0 ) hv, ? ?0 i, 8? 2 RM }. Moreover, let u1 , . . . , un be the eigenvectors of K?0 sorted in descending P order. Defining vm := j>? u> j Km uj , one can verify?using the sub-differentiability of the max P operator?that v = (v1 , . . . , vM )> is contained in the subdifferential @?0 j>? j (K?0 ). Thus, we can linearly approximate the constraint, for any ?0 2 RM , via X X ?0 i = u> j (K? ) ? hv, ? j K? ?0 uj . j>? j>? We can thus tackle problem (7) using the DCA algorithm [15], which in this context reduces to alternating between the linearization of the concave constraint and solving the resulting convex problem, that is, for any ?0 2 RM , n X 1 2 min kwkHK + C l(fw,K? (xi ), yi ) ? w ??0 2 i=1 (8) X s.t. u> K u ? 1. (? ?0 ) j j j>? Note that ?0 changes in every iteration and so may also do the eigenvectors u1 , . . . , un of K?0 , until the DCA algorithm converges. The DCA algorithm is proven to converge to a local minimum, even when the concave function is not differentiable [15]. The algorithm is also close to the CCCP algorithm of Yuille and Rangarajan [16], modulo the use of subgradients instead of the gradients. To solve (8), we alternate the optimization with respect to ? and w. Note that, for fixed w, we can compute the optimal ? analytically. Up to normalization the following holds: v u 2 u kwkHk ? 8m = 1, . . . , M : ?m = t P . (9) >K u u m j j>? j A very similar optimality expression has been used in the context the group Lasso and `p -norm multiple kernel learning by [3]. In turn, we need to compute a w that is optimal in (8), for fixed ?. We perform this computation in the dual; e.g., for the hinge loss l(t, y) = max(0, 1 ty), this reduces to a standard support vector machine (SVM) [17, 18] problem, 1 max 1> ? (? y)> K? (? y), (10) 0 ? C 2 where denotes the Hadamard product. 5 Algorithm 1 (DC ALGORITHM FOR LEARNING KERNELS BASED ON THE LOCAL R ADEMACHER COMPLEXITY ). 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: input: kernel matrix K = (k(xi , xj ))n i,j=1 and labels y1 , . . . , yn 2 { 1, 1}, optimization precision " initialize ?m := 1/M for all m = 1, . . . , M while optimality conditions are not satisfied within tolerance ? do SVM training: compute a new ? by solving the SVM problem (10) eigenvalue computation: compute eigenvalues u1 , . . . , un of K? store ?0 := ? ? update: compute a new P ? according to (9) using (11) normalize ? such that j>? uj K(? ?0 ) uj = 1 end while SVM training: solve (10) with respect to ? output: ?-accurate ? and kernel weights ? 2 For the computation of (9), we can recover the term kwkHk corresponding to the ? that is optimal ? in (10) via 2 kwkHK = ?2m (? y)> Km (? y), (11) ? which follows from the KKT conditions with respect to (10). In summary, the proposed algorithm, which is shown in Algorithm Table 1, alternatingly optimizes ? and ?, where prior to each ? step the linear approximation is updated by computing an eigenvalue decomposition of K? . In the discussion that precedes, for the sake of simplicity of the presentation, we restricted ourselves to the case of an `1 -regularization, that is we showed how the standard trace-regularization can be replaced by a regularization based on the tail-sum of the eigenvalues. It should be clear that in the same way we can replace the familiar `p -regularization used in learning kernel algorithms [3] for p 1 with `p -regularization in terms of the tail eigenvalues. In fact, as in the `1 case, in the `p case, our convex optimization algorithm can be solved using existing MKL optimization solutions. The results we report in Section 5 will in fact also include those obtained by using the `2 version of our algorithm. 4 Learning guarantees An advantage of the algorithms presented is that they benefit from strong theoretical guarantees. Since H1 ? H2 , it is sufficient to present these guarantees for H2 ?any bound that holds for H2 a fortiori holds for H1 . To present the result, recall from Section 3.2 that, by a re-normalization of the ? 2 , as defined in (6). Thus, the algorithms presented kernels, we may equivalently express H2 by H enjoy the following bound on the local Rademacher complexity, which was shown in [19] (Theorem 5). Similar results were shown in [20, 21]. Theorem 6 (Local Rademacher complexity). Assume that the kernels are uniformly bounded (for e 2 can be all m, kk?m k1 < 1) and uncorrelated. Then, the local Rademacher complexity of H bounded as follows: v ! u ? ? 1 ? ? X u 16e 1 2 2 2 ? t e R(H2 ; r) ? max min r, e ? log (M ) j (km ) + O . m=1,...,M n n j=1 Note that we show the result under the assumption of uncorrelated kernels only for simplicity of presentation. More generally, a similar result holds for correlated kernels and arbitrary p 1 (cf. [19], Theorem 5). Subsequently, we can derive the following bound on the excess risk from Theorem 6 using a result of [11] (presented as Theorem 8 in the supplemental material 1). Theorem 7. Let l(t, y) = 12 (t y)2 be the squared loss. Assume that for all m, there exists d such that j (k?m ) ? dj for some > 1 (this is a common assumption and, for example, met for finite rank kernels and Gaussian kernels [14]). Then, under the assumptions of the previous theorem, for any > 0, with probability at least 1 over the draw of the sample, the excess loss of the class ? 2 can be bounded as follows: H r ? ? 1 1 1 3 1 2 ? 2 1+ +1 +1 +1 E[b gn ] E[g ] ? 186 4d? log (M ) 2 e(M/e) n + O . 1 n 6 3 0.88 0.86 0.84 100 250 n l1 l2 unif conv dc 1,000 l1 l2 conv dc 2 1 0 2 n=100 log(tailsum(?) AUC 0.9 kernel weight 0.92 1 0 ?1 TSS Promo 1st Ex Angle Energ 85.2 80.9 85.8 55.6 72.1 n=100 0 TSS Promo 1st Ex Angle Energ 50 ? 100 Figure 2: Results of the TSS experiment. L EFT: average AUCs of the compared algorithms. C EN TER : for each kernel, P the average kernel weight and single-kernel AUC. R IGHT: for each kernel Km , the tail sum j>? j as a function of the eigenvalue cut-off point ?. ? ? 1 1 We observe that the above bound converges in O log2 (M ) 1+ M +1 n 1+ . This can be almost p as slow as O log(M )/ n (when ? 1) and almost as fast as O M/n (when letting ! 1). The latter is the case, for instance, for finite-rank or Gaussian kernels. 5 Experiments In this section, we report the results of experiments with the two algorithms we introduced, which we will denote by conv and dc in short. We will compare our algorithms with the classical `1 -norm MKL (denoted by l1) and the more recent `2 -norm MKL [3] (denoted by l2). We also measure the performance of the uniform kernel combination, denoted by unif, which has frequently been shown to achieve competitive performances [22]. In all experiments, we use the hinge loss as a loss function, including a bias term. 5.1 Transcription Start Site Detection Our first experiment aims at detecting transcription start sites (TSS) of RNA Polymerase II binding genes in genomic DNA sequences. We experiment on the TSS data set, which we downloaded from http://mldata.org/. This data set, which is a subset of the data used in the larger study of [23], comes with 5 kernels, capturing various complementary aspects: a weighted-degree kernel representing the TSS signal TSS, two spectrum kernels around the promoter region (Promo) and the 1st exon (1st Ex), respectively, and two linear kernels based on twisting angles (Angle) and stacking energies (Energ), respectively. The SVM based on the uniform combination of these 5 kernels was found to have the highest overall performance among 19 promoter prediction programs [24], it therefore constitutes a strong baseline. To be consistent with previous studies [24, 3, 23], we will use the area under the ROC curve (AUC) as an evaluation criterion. All kernel matrices Km were normalized such that Tr(Km ) = n for all m, prior to the experiment. SVM computations were performed using the SHOGUN toolbox [25]. For both conv and dc, we experiment with `1 - and `2 -norms. We randomly drew an n-elemental training set and split the remaining set into validation and test sets of equal size. The random partitioning was repeated 100 times. We selected the optimal model parameters ? 2 {2i , i = 0, 1, . . . , 4} and C 2 {10 i , i = 2, 1, 0, 1, 2} on the validation set, based on their maximal mean AUC, and report mean AUCs on the test set as well as standard deviations (the latter are within the interval [1.1, 2.5] and are shown in detail in the supplemental material 4). The experiment was carried out for all n 2 {100, 250, 1000}. Figure 2 (left) shows the mean AUCs on the test sets. We observe that unif and l2 outperform l1, except when n = 100, in which case the three methods are on par. This is consistent with the result reported by [3]. For all sample sizes investigated, conv and dc yield the highest AUCs. We give a brief explanation for the outcome of the experiment. To further investigate, we compare the average kernel weights ? output by the compared algorithms (for n = 100). They are shown in Figure 2 (center), where we report, below each kernel, also its performance in terms of its AUC when training an SVM on that single kernel alone. We observe that l1 focuses on the TSS kernel using the TSS signal, which has the second highest AUC among the kernels (85.2). However, l1 discards the 1st exon kernel, which also has a high predictive performance (AUC of 85.8). A similar order of kernel importance is determined by l2, but which distributes the weights more broadly, 7 Table 1: The training split (sp) fraction, dataset size (n), and multi-class accuracies shown with ?1 standard error. The performance results for MKL and conv correspond to the best values obtained using either `1 -norm or `2 -norm regularization. sp n unif MKL conv ? plant nonpl psortPos psortNeg protein 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 940 2732 541 1444 694 91.1 ? 0.8 87.2 ? 1.6 90.5 ? 3.1 90.3 ? 1.8 57.2 ? 2.0 90.6 ? 0.9 87.7 ? 1.3 90.6 ? 3.4 90.7 ? 1.2 57.2 ? 2.0 91.4 ? 0.7 87.6 ? 0.9 90.8 ? 2.8 91.2 ? 1.3 59.6 ? 2.4 32 4 1 8 8 while still mostly focusing on the TSS kernel. In contrast, conv and dc distribute their weight only over the TSS, Promoter, and 1st Exon kernels, which are also the kernels that also have the highest predictive accuracies. The considerably weaker kernels Angle and Energ are discarded. But why are Angle and Energ discarded? This can be explained by means of Figure 2 (right), where we show the tail sum of each kernel as a function of the cut-off point ?. We observe that Angle and Energ have only moderately large first and second eigenvalues, which is why they hardly profit when using conv or dc. The Promo and Exon kernels, however, which are discarded by l1, have a large first (and also second) eigenvalues, which is why they are promoted by conv or dc. Indeed, the model selection determines the optimal cut-off, for both conv and dc, for ? = 1. 5.2 Multi-class Experiments We next carried out a series of experiments with the conv algorithm in the multi-class classification setting, that repeatedly has demonstrated amenable to MKL learning [26, 27]. As described in Section 3.2 the conv problem can be solved by simply re-normalizing the kernels by the tail sum of the eigenvalues and making use of any `p -norm MKL solver. For our experiments, we used the ufo algorithm [26] from the DOGMA toolbox http://dogma.sourceforge.net/. For both conv and ufo we experiment both with `1 and `2 regularization and report the best performance achieved in each case. We used the data sets evaluated in [27] (plant, nonpl, psortPos, and psortNeg), which consist of either 3 or 4 classes and use 69 biologically motivated sequence kernels.1 Furthermore, we also considered the proteinFold data set of [28], which consists of 27 classes and uses 12 biologically motivated base kernels.2 The results are summarized in Table 1: they represent mean accuracy values with one standard deviation as computed over 10 random splits of the data into training and test folds. The fraction of the data used for training, as well as the total number of examples, is also shown. The optimal value for the parameter ? 2 {2i , i = 0, 1, . . . , 8} was determined by cross-validation. For the parameters ? and C of the ufo algorithm we followed the methodology of [26]. For plant, psortPos, and psortNeg, the results show that conv leads to a consistent improvement in a difficult multi-class setting, although we cannot attest to their significance due to the insufficient size of the data sets. They also demonstrate a significant performance improvement over l1 and unif in the proteinFold data set, a more difficult task where the classification accuracies are below 60%. 6 Conclusion We showed how the notion of local Rademacher complexity can be used to derive new algorithms for learning kernels by using a regularization based on the tail sum of the eigenvalues of the kernels. We introduced two natural hypothesis sets based on that regularization, discussed their relationships, and showed how they can be used to design an algorithm based on a convex optimization and one based on solving a DC-programming problem. Our algorithms benefit from strong learning guarantees. Our empirical results show that they can lead to performance improvement in some challenging tasks. Finally, our analysis based on local Rademacher complexity could be used as the basis for the design of new learning kernel algorithms. Acknowledgments We thank Gunnar R?atsch for helpful discussions. This work was partly funded by the NSF award IIS-1117591 and a postdoctoral fellowship funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). 1 2 Accessible from http://raetschlab.org//projects/protsubloc. Accessible from http://mkl.ucsd.edu/dataset/protein-fold-prediction. 8 References [1] F. R. Bach, G. R. G. Lanckriet, and M. I. Jordan, ?Multiple kernel learning, conic duality, and the SMO algorithm,? in Proc. 21st ICML, ACM, 2004. [2] C. Cortes, M. Mohri, and A. Rostamizadeh, ?Generalization bounds for learning kernels,? in Proceedings, 27th ICML, pp. 247?254, 2010. [3] M. Kloft, U. Brefeld, S. Sonnenburg, and A. Zien, ?`p -norm multiple kernel learning,? 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Inverse Density as an Inverse Problem: the Fredholm Equation Approach Qichao Que, Mikhail Belkin Department of Computer Science and Engineering The Ohio State University {que,mbelkin}@cse.ohio-state.edu Abstract We address the problem of estimating the ratio pq where p is a density function and q is another density, or, more generally an arbitrary function. Knowing or approximating this ratio is needed in various problems of inference and integration often referred to as importance sampling in statistical inference. It is also closely related to the problem of covariate shift in transfer learning. Our approach is based on reformulating the problem of estimating the ratio as an inverse problem in terms of an integral operator corresponding to a kernel, known as the Fredholm problem of the first kind. This formulation, combined with the techniques of regularization leads to a principled framework for constructing algorithms and for analyzing them theoretically. The resulting family of algorithms (FIRE, for Fredholm Inverse Regularized Estimator) is flexible, simple and easy to implement. We provide detailed theoretical analysis including concentration bounds and convergence rates for the Gaussian kernel for densities defined on Rd and smooth d-dimensional sub-manifolds of the Euclidean space. Model selection for unsupervised or semi-supervised inference is generally a difficult problem. It turns out that in the density ratio estimation setting, when samples from both distributions are available, simple completely unsupervised model selection methods are available. We call this mechanism CD-CV for Cross-Density Cross-Validation. We show encouraging experimental results including applications to classification within the covariate shift framework. 1 Introduction q(x) In this paper we address the problem of estimating the ratio of two functions, p(x) where p is given by a sample and q(x) is either a known function or another probability density function given by a sample. This estimation problem arises naturally when one attempts to integrate a function with respect to one density, given its values on a sample obtained from another distribution. Recently there have been a significant amount of work on estimating the density ratio (also known as the importance function) from sampled data, e.g., [6, 10, 9, 22, 2]. Many of these papers consider this problem in the context of covariate shift assumption [19] or the so-called selection bias [27]. The approach taken in our paper is based on reformulating the density ratio estimation as an integral equation, known as the Fredholm equation of the first kind, and solving it using the tools of regularization and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces. That allows us to develop simple and flexible algorithms for density ratio estimation within the popular kernel learning framework. The connection to the classical operator theory setting makes it easier to apply the standard tools of spectral and Fourier analysis to obtain theoretical results. We start with the following simple equality underlying the importance sampling method:   Z Z q(x) q(x) Eq (h(x)) = h(x)q(x)dx = h(x) p(x)dx = Ep h(x) p(x) p(x) 1 (1) By replacing the function h(x) Z with a kernel k(x, y), we Z obtain q q(y) Kp (x) := k(x, y) p(y)dy = k(x, y)q(y)dy := Kq 1(x). p p(y) (2) q(x) Thinking of the function p(x) as an unknown quantity and assuming that the right hand side is known this becomes a Fredholm integral equation. Note that the right-hand side can be estimated given a sample from q while the operator on the left can be estimated using a sample from p. To push this idea further, suppose kt (x, y) is a ?local? kernel, (e.g., the Gaussian, kt (x, y) = R kx?yk2 1 ? 2t ) such that Rd kt (x, y)dx = 1. When we use ?-kernels, like Gaussian, and f e d/2 (2?t) R satisfies some smoothness conditions, we have Rd kt (x, y)f (x)dx = f (y) + O(t) (see [24], Ch. 1). Thus we get another (approximate) integral equality: Z q(x) q kt (x, y) p(x)dx ? q(y). (3) Kt,p (y) := p p(x) d R It becomes an integral equation for q(x) p(x) , assuming that q is known or can be approximated. We address these inverse problems by formulating them within the classical framework of TiknonovPhilips regularization with the penalty term corresponding to the norm of the function in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space H with kernel kH used in many machine learning algorithms. q q [Type I]: ? arg min kKp f ?Kq 1(x)k2L2,p +?kf k2H [II]: ? arg min kKt,p f ?qk2L2,p +?kf k2H f ?H f ?H p p Importantly, given a sample x1 , . . . , xn from p, the integral operator KpP f applied to a function f can be approximated by the corresponding discrete sum Kp f (x) ? n1 i f (xi )K(xi , x), while P L2,p norm is approximated by an average: kf k2L2,p ? n1 i f (xi )2 . Of course, the same holds for a sample from q. We see that the Type I formulation is useful when q is a density and samples from both p and q are available, while the Type II is useful, when the values of q (which does not have to be a density function at all1 ) are known at the data points sampled from p. Since all of these involve only function evaluations at the sample points, an application of the usual representer theorem for Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, leads to simple, explicit and easily implementable algorithms, representing the solution P of the optimization problem as linear combinations of the kernels over the points of the sample i ?i kH (xi , x) (see Section 2). We call the resulting algorithms FIRE for Fredholm Inverse Regularized Estimator. Remark: Other norms and loss functions. Norms and loss functions other that L2,p can also be used in our setting as long as they can be approximated from a sample using function evaluations. 1. Perhaps, the most interesting is L2,q norm available in the Type I setting, when a sample from the probability distribution q is available. In fact, given a sample from both p and q we can use the combined empirical norm ?k ? kL2,p + (1 ? ?)k ? kL2,q . Optimization using those norms leads to some interesting kernel algorithms described in Section 2. We note that the solution is still a linear combination of kernel functions centered on the sample from p and can still be written explicitly. 2. In Type I formulation, if the kernels k(x, y) and kH (x, y) coincide, it is possible to use the RKHS norm k ? kH instead of L2,p . This formulation (see Section 2) also yields an explicit formula and is related to the Kernel Mean Matching [9] , although with a different optimization procedure. Since we are dealing with a classical inverse problem for integral operators, our formulation allows for theoretical analysis using the methods of spectral theory. In Section 3 we present concentration and error bounds as well as convergence rates for our algorithms when data are sampled from a distribution defined in Rd , a domain in Rd with boundary or a compact d-dimensional sub-manifold of a Euclidean space RN for the case of the Gaussian kernel. In Section 4 we introduce a unsupervised method, referred as CD-CV (for cross-density crossvalidation) for model selection and discuss the experimental results on several data sets comparing our method FIRE with the available alternatives, Kernel Mean Matching (KMM) [9] and LSIF [10] as well as the base-line thresholded inverse kernel density estimator2 (TIKDE) and importance sampling (when available). 1 2 This could be useful in sampling procedures, when the normalizing coefficients are hard to estimate. The standard kernel density estimator for q divided by a thresholded kernel density estimator for p. 2 We summarize the contributions of the paper as follows: 1. We provide a formulation of estimating the density ratio (importance function) as a classical inverse problem, known as the Fredholm equation, establishing a connections to the methods of classical analysis. The underlying idea is to ?linearize? the properties of the density by studying an associated integral operator. 2. To solve the resulting inverse problems we apply regularization with an RKHS norm penalty. This provides a flexible and principled framework, with a variety of different norms and regularization techniques available. It separates the underlying inverse problem from the necessary regularization and leads to a family of very simple and direct algorithms within the kernel learning framework in machine learning. 3. Using the techniques of spectral analysis and concentration, we provide a detailed theoretical analysis for the case of the Gaussian kernel, for Euclidean case as well as for distributions supported on a sub-manifold. We prove error bounds and as well as the convergence rates. 4. We also propose a completely unsupervised technique, CD-CV, for cross-validating the parameters of our algorithm and demonstrate its usefulness, thus addressing in our setting one of the most thorny issues in unsupervised/semi-supervised learning. We evaluate and compare our methods on several different data sets and in various settings and demonstrate strong performance and better computational efficiency compared to the alternatives. Related work. Recently the problem of density ratio estimation has received significant attention due in part to the increased interest in transfer learning [15] and, in particular to the form of transfer learning known as covariate shift [19]. To give a brief summary, given the feature space X and the label space Y , two probability distributions p and q on X ? Y satisfy the covariate assumption if for all x, y, p(y|x) = q(y|x). It is easy to see that training a classifier to minimize the error for q, (x) given a sample from p requires estimating the ratio of the marginal distributions pqX . The work on X (x) covariate shift, density ratio estimation and related settings includes [27, 2, 6, 10, 22, 9, 23, 14, 7]. The algorithm most closely related to ours is Kernel Mean Matching [9]. It is based on the equation: Eq (?(x)) = Ep ( pq ?(x)), where ? is the feature map corresponding to an RKHS H. It is rewritten q(x) ? arg min??L2 ,?(x)>0,Ep (?)=1 kEq (?(x)) ? Ep (?(x)?(x))kH . as an optimization problem p(x) The quantity on the right can be estimated given a sample from p and a sample from q and the minimization becomes a quadratic optimization problem over the values of ? at the points sampled from p. Writing down the feature map explicitly, i.e., recalling that ?(x) = KH (x, ?), we see that the equality Eq (?(x)) = Ep ( pq ?(x)) is equivalent to the integral equation Eq. 2 considered as an identity in the Hilbert space H. Thus the problem of KMM can be viewed within our setting Type I (see the Remark 2 in the introduction), with a RKHS norm but a different optimization algorithm. However, while the KMM optimization problem uses the RKHS norm, the weight function ? itself is not in the RKHS. Thus, unlike most other algorithms in the RKHS framework (in particular, FIRE), the empirical optimization problem does not have a natural out-of-sample extension. Also, since there is no regularizing term, the problem is less stable (see Section 4 for some experimental comparisons) and the theoretical analysis is harder (however, see [6] and the recent paper [26] for some nice theoretical analysis of KMM in certain settings). Another related recent algorithm is Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIF) [10], which attempts to estimate the density ratio by choosing a parametric linear family of functions and choosing a function from this family to minimize the L2,p distance to the density ratio. A similar setting with the Kullback-Leibler distance (KLIEP) was proposed in [23]. This has an advantage of a natural out-of-sample extension property. We note that our method for unsupervised parameter selection in Section 4 is related to their ideas. However, in our case the set of test functions does not need to form a good basis since no approximation is required. We note that our methods are closely related to a large body of work on kernel methods in machine learning and statistical estimation (e.g., [21, 17, 16]). Many of these algorithms can be interpreted as inverse problems, e.g., [3, 20] in the Tikhonov regularization or other regularization frameworks. In particular, we note interesting methods for density estimation proposed in [12] and estimating the support of density through spectral regularization in [4], as well as robust density estimation using RKHS formulations [11] and conditional density [8]. We also note the connections of the methods in this paper to properties of density-dependent operators in classification and clustering [25, 18, 1]. Among those works that provide theoretical analysis of algorithms for estimating density ratios, 3 [14] establishes minimax rates for likelihood ratio estimation. Another recent theoretical analysis of KMM in [26] contains bounds for the output of the corresponding integral operators. 2 Settings and Algorithms Settings and objects. We start by introducing objects and function spaces important for our development. As usual, the norm in space functions with respect to a measure R of square-integrable ?, is defined as follows: L2,? = f : ? |f (x)|2Rd? < ? . This is a Hilbert space with the inner product defined in the usual way R by hf, gi2,? = ? f (x)g(x)d?. Given a kernel k(x, y) we define the operator K? : K? f (y) := ? k(x, y)f (x)d?(x). We will use the notation Kt,? to explicitly refer to the parameter of the kernel function kt (x, y), when it is a ?-family. If the function k(x, y) is symmetric and positive definite, then there is a corresponding Reproducing Kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) H. We recall the key property of the kernel kH : for any f ? H, hf, kH (x, ?)iH = f (x). The Representer Theorem allows us to write solutions to various optimization problems over H in terms of linear combinations of kernels supported on sample points (see [21] for an in-depth discussion or the RKHS theory and the issues related to learning). Given a sample x1 , . . .P , xn from p, one can approximate the L2,p norm of a sufficiently smooth functionf by kf k22,p ? n1 i |f (xi )|2 , and P similarly, the integral operator Kp f (x) ? n1 i k(xi , x)f (xi ). These approximate equalities can be made precise by using appropriate concentration inequalities. The FIRE Algorithms. As discussed in the introduction, the starting point for our development is the two integral equalities, Z Z q(y) q q(y) q dp(y) = Kq 1(?) [II]:Kt,p (?) = kt (?, y) dp(y) = q(?) + o(1) [I]: Kp (?) = k(?, y) p p(y) p p(y) (4) Notice that in the Type I setting, the kernel does not have to be in a ?-family. For example, a linear kernel is admissible. Type II setting comes from the fact Kt,q f (x) ? f (x)p(x) + O(t) for a ??function-like? kernel and we keep t in the notation in that case. Assuming that either Kq 1 or q are (approximately) known (Type I and II settings, respectively) equalities in Eqs. 4 become integral equations for pq , known as Fredholm equations of the first kind. To estimate pq , we need to obtain an approximation to the solution which (a) can be obtained computationally from sampled data, (b) is stable with respect to sampling and other perturbation of the input function, (c) can be analyzed using the standard machinery of functional analysis. To provide a framework for solving these inverse problems, we apply the classical techniques of regularization combined with the RKHS norm popular in machine learning. In particular a simple formulation of Type I using Tikhonov regularization, ([5], Ch. 5), with the L2,p norm is as follows: [Type I]: f?I = arg min kKp f ? Kq 1k22,p + ?kf k2H f ?H (5) Here H is an appropriate Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Similarly Type II can be solved by [Type II]: f?II = arg min kKt,p f ? qk22,p + ?kf k2H f ?H (6) We will now discuss the empirical versions of these equations and the resulting algorithms. Type I setting. Algorithm for L2,p norm. Given an iid sample from p, z p = {xi }ni=1 and an iid sample from q, z q = {x0j }m combined sample), we can approximate the j=1 (z for the P integral operators Kp and Kq by Kzp f (x) = n1 xi ?zp k(xi , x)f (xi ) and Kzq f (x) = P 1 0 0 x0i ?z q k(xi , x)f (xi ). Thus the empirical version of Eq. 5 becomes m 1 X I ((Kzp f )(xi ) ? (Kzq 1)(xi ))2 + ?kf k2H (7) f?,z = arg min f ?H n x ?z i p The first term of the optimization problem involves only evaluations of the function f at the points of the sample. From Representer Theorem and matrix manipulation, we obtain the following: X ?1 I 2 f?,z (x) = kH (xi , x)vi and v = Kp,p KH + n?I Kp,p Kp,q 1zq . (8) xi ?z p where the kernel matrices are defined as follows: (Kp,p )ij = n1 k(xi , xj ), (KH )ij = kH (xi , xj ) for 1 xi , xj ? z p and Kp,q is defined as (Kp,q )ij = m k(xi , x0j ) for xi ? z p and x0j ? z q . 4 If KH and Kp,p are the same kernel we simply have: v = 1 n 3 Kp,p + ?I ?1 Kp,p Kp,q 1zq . Algorithms for ?L2,p + (1 ? ?)L2,q norm. Depending on the setting, we may want to minimize the error of the estimate over the probability distribution p, q or over some linear combination of these. A significant potential benefit of using a linear combination is that both samples can be used at the same time in the loss function. First we state the continuous version of the problem: f?* = arg min ?kKp f ? Kq 1k22,p + (1 ? ?)kKp f ? Kq 1k22,q + ?kf k2H f ?H (9) Given a sample from p, z p = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn } and a sample from q, z q = {x01 , x02 , . . . , x0m } we ? obtain an empirical version of the Eq. 9: f?,z (x) = X 2 2 1 ? ? X ? arg min (Kzp f )(x0i ) ? (Kzq 1)(x0i ) + ?kf k2H Kzp f (xi ) ? Kzq 1(xpi ) + f ?H n m 0 x ?z i xi ?z q p ? f?,z (x) ?1 P From the Representer Theorem = xi ?zp vi kH (xi , x) v = (K + n?I) K1 1zq     ? 1?? T ? 1?? T K= (Kp,p )2 + Kq,p Kq,p KH and K1 = Kp,p Kp,q + Kq,p Kq,q n m n m 1 where (Kp,p )ij = n1 k(xi , xj ), (KH )ij = kH (xi , xj ) for xi , xj ? z p , and (Kp,q )ij = m k(xi , x0j ) 1 0 0 and (Kq,p )ji = n k(xj , xi ) for xi ? z p ,xj ? z q . Despite the loss function combining both samples, the solution is still a summation of kernels over the points in the sample from p. Algorithms for the RKHS norm. In addition to using the RKHS norm for regularization norm, we can also use it as a loss function: f?* = arg minf ?H kKp f ? Kq 1k2H0 + ?kf k2H Here the Hilbert space H0 must correspond to the kernel k and can potentially be different from the space H used for regularization. Note that this formulation is only applicable in the Type I setting since it requires the function q to belong to the RKHS H0 . Given two samples z p , z q , it is easy to write down the empirical version of this problem, leading to the following formula: X ?1 ? f?,z (x) = vi kH (xi , x) v = (Kp,p KH + n?I) Kp,q 1zq . (10) xi ?z p The result is somewhat similar to our Type I formulation with the L2,p norm. We note the connection between this formulation of using the RKHS norm as a loss function and the KMM algorithm [9]. When the kernels K and KH are the same, Eq. 10 can be viewed as a regularized version of KMM (with a different optimization procedure). Type II setting. In Type II setting we assume that we have a sample z = {xi }ni=1 drawn from p and that we know the function values q(xi ) at the points of the sample. Replacing the norm and the integral operator with their empirical versions, we obtain the following optimization problem: 1 X II f?,z = arg min (Kt,zp f (xi ) ? q(xi ))2 + ?kf k2H (11) f ?H n x ?z i As before, using the Representer Theorem we obtain an analytical formula for the solution: X ?1 II f?,z (x) = kH (xi , x)vi where v = K 2 KH + n?I Kq. xi ?z where the kernel matrix K is defined by Kij = 1 n kt (xi , xj ), (KH )ij = kH (xi , xj ) and qi = q(xi ). Comparison of type I and type II settings. 1. In Type II setting q does not have to be a density function (i.e., non-negative and integrate to one). 2. Eq. 7 of the Type I setting cannot be easily solved in the absence of a sample z q from q, since estimating Kq requires either sampling from q (if it is a density) or estimating the integral in some other way, which may be difficult in high dimension but perhaps of interest in certain low-dimensional application domains. 3. There are a number of problems (e.g., many problems involving MCMC) where q(x) is known explicitly (possibly up to a multiplicative constant), while sampling from q is expensive or even impossible computationally [13]. 4. Unlike Eq. 5, Eq. 6 has an error term depending on the kernel. For example, in the important case of the Gaussian kernel, the error is of the order O(t), where t is the variance of Gaussian. 5. Several norms are available in the Type I setting, but only the L2,p norm is available for Type II. 5 3 Theoretical analysis: bounds and convergence rates for Gaussian Kernels In this section, we state our main results on bounds and convergence rates for our algorithm based on Tikhonov regularization with a Gaussian kernel. We consider both Type I and Type II settings for the Euclidean and manifold cases and make a remark on the Euclidean domains with boundary. To simplify the theoretical development, the integral operator and the RKHS H will correspond to the same Gaussian kernel kt (x, y). The proofs will be found in the supplemental material. Assumptions: The set ?, where the density function p is defined, could be one of the following: (1) the whole Rd ; (2) a compact smooth Riemannian sub-manifold M of d-dimension in Rn . We also need p(x) < ?, q(x) < ? for any x ? ? and that pq , pq2 are in Sobolev space W22 (?). Theorem 1. ( Type I setting.) Let p and q be two density functions on ?. Given n points, z p = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn }, i.i.d. sampled from p and m points, z q = {x01 , x02 , . . . , x0m }, i.i.d. sampled from q, and for small enough t, for the solution to the optimization problem in (7), with confidence at least 1 ? 2e?? , we have (1) If the domain ? is Rd , for some constants C1 , C2 , C3 independent of t, ?.  ?  I 1 1 f?,z ? q ? C1 t + C2 ? 12 + C3 ? ? ? + p 2,p m ?1/6 n ?td/2 (12) (2) If the domain ? is a compact sub-manifold without boundary of d dimension, for some 0 < ? < 1, C1 , C2 , C3 independent of t, ?.  ?  I 1 1 f?,z ? q ? C1 t1?? + C2 ? 21 + C3 ? ? ? + (13) p 2,p m ?1/6 n ?td/2 Corollary 2. ( Type I setting.) Assuming m > ?1/3 n, with confidence at least 1 ? 2e?? , when (1) ? = Rd , (2) ? is a d-dimensional sub-manifold of a Euclidean space, we have 2 2 ? ?   I I 1 1 q q ? 3.5+d/2 f ? (1) = O f ? ? n (2) ? n? 3.5(1??)+d/2 ?? ? (0, 1) ?,z p ?,z p = O 2,p 2,p Theorem 3. ( Type II setting.) Let p be a density function on ? and q be a function satisfying the assumptions. Given n points z = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn } sampled i.i.d. from p, and for sufficiently small t, for the solution to the optimization problem in (11), with confidence at least 1 ? 2e?? , we have (1) If the domain ? is Rd , ? II ? f?,z ? q ?C1 t + C2 ? 21 + C3 ?? 13 kKt,q 1 ? qk + C4 ? , 2,p p 2,p ?3/2 td/2 n (14) where C1 , C2 , C3 , C4 are constants independent of t, ?. Moreover, kKt,q 1 ? qk2,p = O(t). (2) If ? is a d-dimensional sub-manifold of a Euclidean space, for any 0 < ? < 1 ? II ? f?,z ? q ?C1 t1?? + C2 ? 21 + C3 ?? 13 kKt,q 1 ? qk + C4 ? , 2,p 3/2 d/2 p 2,p ? t n (15) where C1 , C2 , C3 , C4 are independent of t, ?. Moreover, kKt,q 1 ? qk2,p = O(t1?? ), ?? > 0. Corollary 4. ( Type II setting.) With confidence at least 1 ? 2e?? , when (1) ? = Rd , (2) ? is a d-dimensional sub-manifold of a Euclidean space, we have 2 2     1?? II II ? ? 4+15 d ? ? 4?4?+ q q 5d 6 6 (1) f ? = O ? n (2) f ? = O ? n ?? ? (0, 1) ?,z p ?,z p 2,p 2,p 4 Model Selection and Experiments We describe an unsupervised technique for parameter selection, Cross-Density Cross-Validation (CD-CV) based on a performance measure unique to our setting. We proceed to evaluate our method. The setting. In our experiments, we have X p = {xp1 , . . . , xpn } and X q = {xq1 , . . . , xqm }. The goal is to estimate pq , assuming that X p , X q are i.i.d. sampled from p, q respectively. Note that 6 learning pq is unsupervised and our algorithms typically have two parameters: the kernel width t and regularization parameter ?. Performance Measures and CD-CV Model Selection. We describe a set of performance measures used for parameter selection. For agiven function u, we have the following importance sampling  equality (Eq. 1): Ep (u(x)) = Eq u(x) p(x) . If f is an approximation of the true ratio pq , and q(x) X p , X q are samples from p, q respectively, have the following approximation to the previous Pn Pm we will q 1 equation: n1 i=1 u(xpi )f (xpi ) ? m j=1 u(xj ). So after obtaining an estimate f of the ratio, we can validate it using the following performance measure: ? ?2 F n m X X X 1 ? JCD (f ; X p , X q , U ) = ul (xpi )f (xpi ) ? ul (xqj )? (16) F i=1 j=1 l=1 where U = {u1 , . . . , uF } is a collection of test functions. Using this performance measure allows various cross-validation procedures to be used for parameter selection. We note that this way to measure error is related to the LSIF [10] and KLIEP [23] algorithms. However, there a similar measure is used to construct an approximation to the ratio pq using functions u1 , . . . , uF as a basis. In our setting, we can use test functions (e.g., linear functions) which are poorly suited as a basis for approximating the density ratio. We will use the following two families of test functions for parameter selection: (1) Sets of random linear functions ui (x) = ? T x where ? ? N (0, Id); (2) Sets of random half-space indicator functions, ui (x) = 1? T x>0 . Procedures for parameter selection. The performance is optimized using five-fold cross-validation p q q p by splitting the data set into two parts Xtrain for validation. and Xtrain and Xcv for training and Xcv 9 The range we use for kernel width t is (t0 , 2t0 , . . . , 2 t0 ), where t0 is the average distance of the 10 nearest neighbors. The range for regularization parameter ? is (1e ? 5, 1e ? 6, . . . , 1e ? 10). Data sets and Resampling We use two datasets, CPUsmall and Kin8nm, for regression; and USPS handwritten digits for classification. And we draw the first 500 or 1000 points from the original data set as X p . To obtain X q , the following two ways of resampling, using the features or the label information, are used (along the lines of those in [6]). Given a set of data with labels {(x1 , y1 ), (x2 , y2 ), . . . , (xn , yn )} and denoting Pi the probability of i?th instance being chosen, we resample as follows: e(ahxi ,e1 i?b)/?v (1) Resampling using features (labels yi are not used). Pi = 1+e (ahxi ,e1 i?b)/?v , where a, b are the resampling parameters, e1 is the first principal component, and ?v is the standard deviation of the projections to e1 . This resampling method will be denoted by PCA(a, b).  1 yi ? Lq (2) Resampling using labels. Pi = where yi ? L = {1, 2, . . . , k} and Lq is a 0 Otherwise. subset of the whole label set L. It only applies to binary problems obtained by aggregating different classes in multi-class setting. Testing the FIRE algorithm. In the first experiment, we test our method for selecting parameters by focusing on the error JCD (f ; X p , X q , U ) in Eq. 16 for different function classes U . Parameters are chosen using a family of functions U1 , while the performance of the parameter is measured using an independent function family U2 . This measure is important because in practice the functions we are interested in may not be the ones chosen for validation. We use the USPS data sets for this experiment. As a basis for comparison we use TIKDE (Thresholded Inverse Kernel Density Estimator). TIKDE estimates p? and q? respectively using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and assigns p?(x) = ? to any x satisfying p?(x) < ?. TIKDE then outputs q?/? p. We note that chosen threshold ? is key to reasonable performance. One issue of this heuristic is that it could underestimate at the region with high density ratio, due to the uniform thresholding. We also compare our methods to LSIF [10]. In these experiments we do not compare with KMM as out-of-sample extension is necessary for fair comparison. Table 1 shows the average errors of various methods, defined in Eq. 16 on held-out set X err over 5 trials. We use different validation functions f cv (Columns) and error-measuring functions f err (Row). N is the number of random functions used for validation. The error-measuring function families U2 are as follows: (1) Linear(L.): random linear functions f (x) = ? T x where ? ? N (0, Id); (2) Half7 space(H.S.): Sets of random half-space indicator functions, f (x) = 1? T x ; (3) Kernel(K.): random linear combinations of kernel functions centered at training data, f (x) = ? T K where ? ? N (0, Id) and Kij = k(xi , xj ) for xi from training set; (4) Kernel indicator(K.I.) functions f (x) = 1g(x)>0 , where g is as in (3). Table 1: USPS data set with resampling using PCA(5, ?v ) with |X p | = 500, |X q | = 1371. Around 400 in X p and 700 in X q are used in 5-fold CV, the rest are held-out for computing the error. Linear N Half-Spaces Linear 50 200 50 200 N L. TIKDE LSIF FIREp FIREp,q FIREq 10.9 14.1 3.6 4.7 5.9 10.9 14.1 3.7 4.7 6.2 10.9 26.8 5.5 7.4 9.3 10.9 28.2 6.3 6.8 9.3 H.S. TIKDE LSIF FIREp FIREp,q FIREq 2.6 3.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 2.6 3.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.6 3.9 1.2 1.1 1.6 Half-Spaces 50 200 50 200 K. TIKDE LSIF FIREp FIREp,q FIREq 4.7 16.1 1.2 2.1 5.2 4.7 16.1 1.1 2.0 4.3 4.7 15.6 2.8 4.2 6.1 4.7 13.8 3.6 2.6 6.1 K.I. TIKDE LSIF FIREp FIREp,q FIREq 4.2 4.4 0.9 0.6 1.2 4.2 4.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 4.2 5.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 4.2 4.4 1.1 1.1 2.2 Supervised Learning: Regression and Classification. We compare our FIRE algorithm with several other methods in regression and classification tasks. We consider the situation where part of the data set X p are labeled and all of X q are unlabeled. We use weighted ordinary least-square for regression and weighted linear SVM for classification. Regression. Square loss function is used for regression. The performance is measured using norPn yi ?yi )2 q malized square loss, i=1 (? Var(? y ?y) . X is resampled using PCA resampler, described before. L is for Linear, and HS is for Half-Space function families for parameter selection. Table 2: Mean normalized square loss on the CPUsmall and Kin8nm. |X p | = 1000, |X q | = 2000. CPUsmall, resampled by PCA(5, ?v ) Kin8nm, resampled by PCA(1, ?v ) No. of Labeled 100 200 500 100 200 500 Weights OLS TIKDE KMM LSIF FIREp FIREp,q FIREq L HS L .74 .38 1.86 .39 .33 .33 .32 HS L HS .50 .36 1.86 .39 .33 .33 .33 .30 1.9 .31 .29 .29 .28 L HS .83 .29 1.9 .31 .29 .29 .29 .28 2.5 .33 .27 .27 .27 L .59 .28 2.5 .33 .27 .27 .27 .57 .58 .57 .57 .56 .56 HS L .55 .57 .58 .56 .56 .56 .56 .55 .55 .54 .55 .55 .55 .55 .55 .54 .54 .54 .54 HS 0.54 .53 .52 .52 .52 .52 .52 .53 .52 .52 .52 .52 .52 Classification. Weighted linear SVM. Percentage of incorrectly labeled test set instances. Table 3: Average error on USPS with +1 class= {0 ? 4}, ?1 class= {5 ? 9} and |X p | = 1000 and |X q | = 2000. Left half of the table uses resampling PCA(5, ?v ), where ?v . Right half shows resampling based on Label information. PCA(5, ?v ) L = {{0 ? 4}, {5 ? 9}},L0 = {0, 1, 5, 6} No. of Labeled 100 200 500 100 200 500 Weights SVM TIKDE KMM LSIF FIREp FIREp,q FIREq L HS L 10.2 9.4 8.1 9.5 8.9 7.0 5.5 9.4 8.1 10.2 6.8 7.0 7.3 HS L 8.1 7.2 5.9 7.3 5.3 5.1 4.8 7.2 5.9 8.1 5.0 5.1 5.4 HS 5.7 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.9 4.7 5.7 4.1 4.1 4.4 L HS 18.6 18.5 17.5 18.5 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.5 17.5 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.4 L HS L 16.4 16.4 13.5 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.4 13.5 16.3 16.1 16.2 16.2 HS 12.9 12.4 10.3 12.2 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.4 10.3 12.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 Acknowledgements. The work was partially supported by NSF Grants IIS 0643916, IIS 1117707. 8 References [1] M. Belkin, P. Niyogi, and V. Sindhwani. Manifold regularization: A geometric framework for learning from labeled and unlabeled examples. JMLR, 7:2399?2434, 2006. [2] S. Bickel, M. Br?uckner, and T. Scheffer. Discriminative learning for differing training and test distributions. In ICML, 2007. [3] E. De Vito, L. Rosasco, A. Caponnetto, U. De Giovannini, and F. Odone. Learning from examples as an inverse problem. JMLR, 6:883, 2006. [4] E. De Vito, L. Rosasco, and A. Toigo. Spectral regularization for support estimation. In NIPS, pages 487?495, 2010. [5] H. W. Engl, M. Hanke, and A. Neubauer. Regularization of inverse problems. Springer, 1996. [6] A. Gretton, A. Smola, J. Huang, M. Schmittfull, K. Borgwardt, and B. Sch?olkopf. Covariate shift by kernel mean matching. Dataset shift in machine learning, pages 131?160, 2009. [7] S. Gr?unew?alder, A. Gretton, and J. Shawe-Taylor. Smooth operators. In ICML, 2013. [8] S. Gr?unew?alder, G. Lever, L. Baldassarre, S. Patterson, A. Gretton, and M. Pontil. Conditional mean embeddings as regressors. In ICML, 2012. [9] J. Huang, A. Gretton, K. M. Borgwardt, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Smola. Correcting sample selection bias by unlabeled data. In NIPS, pages 601?608, 2006. [10] T. Kanamori, S. Hido, and M. Sugiyama. A least-squares approach to direct importance estimation. JMLR, 10:1391?1445, 2009. [11] J. S. Kim and C. Scott. Robust kernel density estimation. In ICASSP, pages 3381?3384, 2008. [12] S. Mukherjee and V. Vapnik. Support vector method for multivariate density estimation. In Center for Biological and Computational Learning. Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, MIT. CBCL, volume 170, 1999. [13] R. M. Neal. Annealed importance sampling. Statistics and Computing, 11(2):125?139, 2001. [14] X. Nguyen, M. J. Wainwright, and M. I. Jordan. Estimating divergence functionals and the likelihood ratio by penalized convex risk minimization. NIPS, 20:1089?1096, 2008. [15] S. J. Pan and Q. Yang. A survey on transfer learning. Knowledge and Data Engineering, IEEE Transactions on, 22(10):1345?1359, 2010. [16] B. Sch?olkopf and A. J. Smola. Learning with kernels: Support vector machines, regularization, optimization, and beyond. MIT press, 2001. [17] J. Shawe-Taylor and N. Cristianini. Kernel methods for pattern analysis. Cambridge university press, 2004. [18] T. Shi, M. Belkin, and B. Yu. Data spectroscopy: Eigenspaces of convolution operators and clustering. The Annals of Statistics, 37(6B):3960?3984, 2009. [19] H. Shimodaira. Improving predictive inference under covariate shift by weighting the loglikelihood function. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 90(2):227?244, 2000. [20] A. J. Smola and B. Sch?olkopf. On a kernel-based method for pattern recognition, regression, approximation, and operator inversion. Algorithmica, 22(1):211?231, 1998. [21] I. Steinwart and A. Christmann. Support vector machines. Springer, 2008. [22] M. Sugiyama, M. Krauledat, and K. M?uller. Covariate shift adaptation by importance weighted cross validation. JMLR, 8:985?1005, 2007. [23] Masashi Sugiyama, Shinichi Nakajima, Hisashi Kashima, Paul Von Buenau, and Motoaki Kawanabe. Direct importance estimation with model selection and its application to covariate shift adaptation. NIPS, 20:1433?1440, 2008. [24] A. Tsybakov. Introduction to nonparametric estimation. Springer, 2009. [25] C. Williams and M. Seeger. The effect of the input density distribution on kernel-based classifiers. In ICML, 2000. [26] Y. Yu and C. Szepesv?ari. Analysis of kernel mean matching under covariate shift. In ICML, 2012. [27] B. Zadrozny. Learning and evaluating classifiers under sample selection bias. In ICML, 2004. 9
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Regression-tree Tuning in a Streaming Setting Samory Kpotufe? Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago? [email protected] Francesco Orabona? Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago [email protected] Abstract We consider the problem of maintaining the data-structures of a partition-based regression procedure in a setting where the training data arrives sequentially over time. We prove that it is possible to maintain such a structure in time O (log n) at ? n?2/(2+d) any time step n while achieving a nearly-optimal regression rate of O in terms of the unknown metric dimension d. Finally we prove a new regression lower-bound which is independent of a given data size, and hence is more appropriate for the streaming setting. 1 Introduction Traditional nonparametric regression such as kernel or k-NN can be expensive to estimate given modern large training data sizes. It is therefore common to resort to cheaper methods such as treebased regression which precompute the regression estimates over a partition of the data space [7]. Given a future query x, the estimate fn (x) simply consists of finding the closest cell of the partition by traversing an appropriate tree-structure and returning the precomputed estimate. The partition and precomputed estimates depend on the training data and are usually maintained in batch-mode. We are interested in maintaining such a partition and estimates in a real-world setting where the training data arrives sequentially over time. Our constraints are that of fast-update at every time step, while maintaining a near-minimax regression error-rate at any point in time. The error-rate of tree-based regression is well known to depend on the size of the partition?s cells. We will call this  size the binwidth. The minimax-optimal binwidth n is known to be of the form O n?1/(2+d) , assuming a training data of size n from a metric space of unknown dimension d, and unknown Lipschitz target function f . This setting of n would then yield a minimax error rate  of O n?2/(2+d) . Thus, the dimension d is the most important problem variable entering the rate (and the tuning of n ), while other problem variables such as the Lipschitz properties of f are less crucial in comparison. The main focus of this work is therefore that of adapting to the unknown d while maintaining fast partition estimates in a streaming setting. A first idea would be to start with an initial dimension estimation phase (where the regression estimates are suboptimal), and using the estimated dimension for subsequent data in a following phase, which leaves only the problem of maintaining partition estimates over time. However, while this sounds reasonable, it is generally unclear when to confidently stop such an initial phase since this would depend on the unknown d and the distribution of the data. Our solution is to interleave dimension estimation with regression updates as the data arrives sequentially. However the algorithm never relies on the estimated dimensions and views them rather as guesses di . Even if di 6= d, it is kept as long as it is not hurtful to regression performance. The guess di is discarded once we detect that it hurts the regression, a new di+1 is then estimated and a new phase i+1 is started. The decision to discard di relies on monitoring quantities that play into the tradeoff between regression variance and bias, more precisely we monitor the size of the partition ? ? SK and FO contributed equally to this paper. Other affiliation: Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Germany 1 and the partition?s binwidth n . We note that the idea can be applied to other forms of regression where other quantities control the regression variance and bias (see longer version of the paper). 1.1 Technical Overview of Results We assume that training data (xi , Yi ) is sampled sequentially over time, xi belongs to a general metric space X of unknown dimension d, and Yi is real. The exact setup is given in Section 2. The algorithm (presented in Section 2.3) maintains regression estimates for all training samples n xn , {xt }t=1 arriving over time, while constantly updating a partition of the data and partition binwidth. At any time t = n, all updates are proveably of order log n with constants depending on the unknown dimension d of X . At time t = n, the estimate for a query point x is given by the precomputed estimate for the closest point to x in xn , which can be found fast using an off-the-shelf similarity search  structure, such as ? n?2/(2+d) , nearly optimal in those of [2, 10]. We prove that the L2 error of the algorithm is O terms of the unknown dimension d of the metric X . Finally, we prove a new lower-bound for regression on a generic metric X , where the worst-case distribution is the same as n increases. Note that traditional lower-bounds for the offline setting derive a different worst-case distribution for each sample size n. Thus, our lower-bound is more appropriate to the streaming setting where the data arrives over time from the same distribution. The results are discussed in more technical details in Section 3. 1.2 Related Work Although various interesting heuristics have been proposed for maintaining tree-based learners in streaming settings (see e.g. [1, 5, 11, 15]), the problem has not received much theoretical attention. This is however an important problem given the growing size of modern datasets, and given that in many modern applications, training data is actually acquired sequentially over time and incremental updates have to be efficient (see e.g. Robotics [12, 16], Finance [8]). The most closely related theoretical work is that of [6] which treats the problem of tuning a local polynomial regressor where the training data is acquired over time. Their setting however is that of a Euclidean space where d is known (ambient Euclidean dimension). [6] is thus concerned with maintaining a minimax error rate w.r.t. the known dimension d, while efficiently tuning regression bandwidth. A possible alternative to the method analyzed here is to employ some form of cross-validation or even online solutions based on mixture of experts [3], by keeping track of different partitions, each corresponding to some setting of the bindwidth n . This is however likely expensive to maintain in practice if good prediction performance is desired. 2 2.1 Preliminaries Notions of metric dimension We consider the following notion of dimension which extends traditional notions of dimension (e.g. Euclidean dimension and manifold dimension) to general metric spaces [4]. We assume throughout, w.l.o.g. that the space X has diameter at most 1 under a metric ?. Definition 1. The metric measure space (X , ?, ?) has metric measure-dimension d, if there exist C?? , C?? such that for all  > 0, and x ? X , C?? d ? ?(B(x, )) ? C?? d . The assumption of finite metric-measure dimension ensures that the measure ? has mass everywhere on the space ?. This assumption is a generalization (to a metric space) of common assumptions where the measure has an upper and lower-bounded density on a compact Euclidean space, however is more general in that it does not require the measure ? to have a density (relative to any reference measure). The metric-measure dimension implies the following other notion of metric dimension. Definition 2. The metric (X , ?) has metric dimension d, if there exists C?? such that, for all  > 0, X has an -cover of size at most C?? ?d . 2 The relation between the two notions of dimension is stated in the following lemma of [9], which allows us to use either notion as needed. Lemma 1 ([9]). If (X , ?, ?) has metric-measure dimension d, then there exists C?? , C?? such that, for all  > 0, any ball B(x, r) centered on (X , ?) has an r-cover of size in [C?? ?d , C?? ?d ]. 2.2 Problem Setup We receive data pairs (x1 , Y1 ), (x2 , Y2 ), . . . sequentially, i.i.d. The input xt belongs to a metric measure space (X , ?, ?) of diameter at most 1, and of metric measure dimension d. The output Yt belongs to a subset of R of bounded diameter ?Y , and satisfies Yt = f (xt ) + ?(xt ). The noise ?(xt ) has 0 mean. The unknown function f is assumed to be ?-Lipschitz w.r.t. ? for an unknown parameter ?, that is ?x, x0 ? X , |f (x) ? f (x0 )| ? ?? (x, x0 ). L2 error: Our main performance result bounds the excess L2 risk 2 E kfn ? f k2,? , xn ,Y n E 2 E |fn (X) ? f (X)| . xn ,Y n X We will often also be interested in the average error on the training sample: recall that at any time t, an estimate ft (xs ) of f is produced for every xs ? xt . The average error on xn at t = n is denoted n 1X 2 E n En |fn (X) ? f (X)| , |fn (xt ) ? f (xt )| . Y n t=1 2 2.3 Algorithm The procedure (Algorithm 1) works by partitioning the data into small regions of size roughly t /2 at any time t, and computing the regression estimate of the centers of each region. All points falling in the same region (identified by a center point) are assigned the same regression estimate: the average Y values of all points in the region. The procedure works in phases, where each Phase i corresponds to a guess di of the metric dimen?1/(2+di ) sion d. Where t might have been set to t?1/(2+d) if we knew d, we set it to ti where ti is the current time step within Phase i. We ensure that in each phase our guess di does not hurt the variance-bias tradeoff of the estimates: this is done by monitoring the size of the partition (|Xi | in the algorithm), which controls the variance (see analysis in Section 4), relative to the bindwidth t , which controls bias. Whenever |Xi | is too large relative to t , the variance of the procedure is likely too large, so we start a new phase with an new guess of di . Since the algorithm maintains at any time n an estimate fn (xt ) for all xt ? xn , for any query point x ? X , we simply return fn (x) = fn (xt ) where xt is the closest point to x in xn . Despite having to adaptively tune to the unknown d, the main computation at each time step consists of just a 2-approximate nearest neighbor search for the closest center. These searches can be done fast in time O (log n) by employing the off-the-shelf online search-procedure of [10]. This is emphasized in Lemma 2 below. Finally, the algorithm employs a constant C? which is assumed to upper-bound the constant C? in Definition 2. This is a minor assumption since C? is generally taken to be small, e.g. 1, in machine learning literature, and is exactly quantifieable for various metrics [4, 10]. 3 3.1 Discussion of Results Time complexity The time complexity of updates is emphasized in the following Lemma. Lemma 2. Suppose (X , ?, ?) has metric dimension d. Then there exist C depending on d such that all computations of the algorithm at any time t = n can be done in time C log n. 3 Algorithm 1 Incremental tree-based regressor. 1: Initialize: i = 1, di = 1, ti = 0, Centers Xi = ? 2: for t = 1, 2, . . . , T do 3: Receive (xt , yt ) 4: ti ? ti + 1 // counts the time steps within Phase i ?1/(2+di ) 5: t ? ti 6: Set xs ? Xi to the 2-approximate nearest neighbor of xt 7: if ? (xt , xs ) ? t then 8: Assign xt to xs 9: fn (xs ) ? update average Y for center xs with yt 10: For every r ? t assigned to xs , fn (xr ) = fn (xs ) 11: else i ? 4di ?d 12: if |Xi | + 1 > C then t 13: // Start oflPhase i + 1 m 14: di+1 ? log( |XiC?|+1 )/ log(4/t ) 15: i?i+1 16: end if 17: Add xt as a new center in Xi 18: end if 19: end for Figure 1: As t varies over time, a ball around a center xs can eventually contain both points assigned to xs and points non-assigned to it, and even contain other centers. This results in a complex partitioning of the data. Proof. The main computation at time n consists of finding the 2-approximate nearest neighbor xn in Xi and update the data structure for the nearest neighbor search. These centers are all at least 2n farapart. Using the results of [10], this can be done online in time O (log(1/n ) + log log(1/n )). 3.2 Convergence rates The main theorem below bounds the L2 error of the algorithm at any given point in time. The main difficulty is in the fact that the data is partitioned in a complicated way due to the ever-changing bindwidth t : every ball around a center can eventually contain both points assigned to the center and points not assigned to the center, in fact can contain other centers (see Figure 1). This makes it hard to get a handle on the number of points assigned to a single center xt (contributing to the variance of fn (xt )) and the distance between points assigned to the same center (contributing to the bias). This is not the case in classical analyses of tree-based regression since the data partitioning is usually clearly defined. The problem is handled by first looking at the average error over points in xn , which is less difficult. Theorem 1. Suppose the space (X , ?, ?) has metric-measure dimension d. For any x ? X , define fn (x) = fn (xt ) where xt is the closest point to x in xn . Then at any time t = n, we have for some C independent of n, 2/d  ?2Y d log n 2 2 2 + . E kf ? f k ? C(d log n) sup E E kf (X) ? f (X)k + C? n n n 2,? xn ,Y n Yn n n xn If the algorithm parameter C? ? C?? , then for some constant C 0 independent of n, we have at any time n that  2 sup E n En |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? C 0 ?2Y + ?2 n?2/(2+d) . xn Y ? ?2/(2+d) ), nearly optimal in terms of the unknown d (up to a The convergence rate is therefore O(n log n factor). In the simulation of Figure 2(Left) we compare our procedure to tree-based regressors with a fixed setting of d and of t = t?1/(2+d) . We use the classic rotating-Teapot dataset, where the target output values are the cosine of the rotation angles. Our method attains the same performance as the one with the right fixed setting of d. As alluded to above, the proof of Theorem 1 proceeds by first bounding the average error 2 E n EY n |fn (X) ? f (X)| on the sample xn . Interestingly, the analysis of the average error is 4 Synthetic dataset, d=5, D=100, first 1000 samples d=1 Teapot dataset 1.1 1 Incremental Tree?based fixed d=1 fixed d=4 fixed d=8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 Incremental Tree?based fixed d=1 fixed d=5 fixed d=10 1 Normalized RMSE on test set Normalized RMSE on test set 0.9 0.2 1000 2000 3000 4000 # Training samples 5000 0.1 0 6000 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 # Training samples 3 3.5 4 4 x 10 Figure 2: Simulation results on Teapot (Left) and Synthetic (Right) datasets. C? set to 1, size of the test sets 1800 and 12500, respectively. of a worst-case nature where the data x1 , x2 , . . . is allowed to arrive adversarially (see analysis of Section 4.1). This shows a sense in which the algorithm is robust to bad dimension estimates: the average error is of the optimal form in terms of d, even though the data could trick us into picking a bad guess di of d. Thus the insights behind the algorithm are perhaps of wider applicability to problems of a more adversarial nature. This is shown empirically in Figure 2(Right), where we created a synthetic datasets with d = 5, while the first 1000 samples are from a line in X . An algorithm that estimates the dimension in a first phase would end up using the suboptimal setting d = 1, while our algorithm robustly updates its estimate over time. As mentioned in the introduction, the same insights can be applied to other forms of regression in a streaming setting. We show in the longer version of the paper a procedure more akin to kernel regression, which employs other quantities (appropriate to the method) to control the bias-variance tradeoff while deciding on keeping or rejecting the guess di . 3.3 Lower-bounds We have to produce a distribution for which the problem is hard, and which matches our streaming setting as well as possible. With this in mind, our lower-bound result differs from existing nonparametric lower-bounds by combining two important aspects. First, the lower-bound holds for any given metric measure space (X , ?, ?) with finite measure-dimension: we constrain the worst-case distribution to have the marginal ? that nature happens to choose. In contrast, lower-bounds in literature would commonly pick a suitable marginal on the space X [13, 14]. Second, the worst-case distribution does not depend on the sample size as is common in literature. Instead, we show that the rate of n?2/(2+d) holds for infinitely many n for a distribution fixed beforehand. This is more appropriate for the online setting where the data is generated over time from a fixed distribution. The lower-bound result of [9] also holds for a given measure space (X , ?, ?), but the worst-case distribution depends on sample size. A lower-bound of [7] holds for infinitely many n, but is restricted to distributions on a Euclidean cube, and thus benefits from the regularity of the cube. Our result combines some technical intuition from these two results in a way described in Section 4.3. We need the following definition. Definition 3. Given a metric-measure space (X , ?, ?), we let D?,? denote the set of distributions on X, Y , X ? X , Y ? R, where the marginal on X is ?, and where the function f (x) = E[Y |X = x] is ?-Lipschitz w.r.t. ?. Theorem 2. Let (X , ?, ?) be a metric space of diameter 1, and metric-measure dimension d. For  any n ? N, define rn2 = (?2 n)?2/(2+d) . Pick any positive sequence {?n }n?N , ?n = o ?2 rn2 . There exists an indexing subsequence {nt }t?N , nt+1 > nt , such that 2 inf sup lim EX nt ,Y nt kfnt ? f k2,? ? nt {fn } D?,? t?? = ?, where the infimum is taken over all sequences {fn } of estimators fn : X n , Y n 7? L2,? . 5 By the statement of the theorem, if we pick any rate ?n faster than n?2/(2+d) , then there exists a 2 distribution with marginal ? for which E kfn ? f k /?n either diverges or tends to ?. 4 Analysis We first analyze the average error of the algorithm over the data xn in Section 4.1. The proof of the main theorem follows in Section 4.2. 4.1 Bounds on Average Error We start by bounding the average error on the sample xn at time n, that is we upper-bound 2 E n EY n |fn (X) ? f (X)| . The proof idea of the upper bound is the following. We bound the error in a given phase (Lemma 4), then combine these errors over all phases to obtain the final bounds (Corollary 1). To bound the error in a phase, we decompose the error in terms of squared bias and variance. The main technical difficulty is that the bandwidth t varies over time and thus points at varying distances are included in each estimate. Nevertheless, if ni is the number of steps in Phase i, we will see that both average ?2/(2+di ) squared bias and variance can be bounded by roughly ni . Finally, the algorithm ensures that the guess di is always an under-estimate of the unknown dimension d, as proven in Lemma 3 (proof in the supplemental appendix), so integrating over all phases yields an adaptive bound on the average error. We assume throughout this section that the space (X , ?) has dimension d for some C?? (see Def. 2). Lemma 3. Suppose the algorithm parameter C? ? C?? . The following invariants hold throughout the procedure for all phases i ? 1 of Algorithm 1: ? i ? di ? d. ? For any t ? Phase i we have |Xi | ? C? 4di t?di . Lemma 4 (Bound on single phase). Suppose the algorithm parameter C? ? C?? . Consider Phase i ? 1 and suppose this phase lasts ni steps. Let Eni denote expectation relative to the uniform choice of X out of {xt : t ? Phase i}. We have the following bound:   2 2 ? d ?2 + 12?2 n? 2+d . E En |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? C4 Y i ni Y Proof. Let Xi (X) denote the center closest to X in Xi . Suppose Xi (X) = xs , s ? [n], we let nxs denote the number of points assigned to the center xs . We use the notation xt ? xs to say that xt is assigned to center xs . FirstPfix X ? {xt : t ? Phase i} and let xs = Xi (xt ). Define f?n (X) ? EY n fn (X) = 1 xt ?xs f (xt ). We proceed with the following standard bias-variance decomposition nx s 2 2 2 En |fn (X) ? f (X)| = En fn (X) ? f?n (X) + f?n (X) ? f (X) . (1) Y Y Let X = xr , r ? s. We first bound the bias term. Using the Lipschitz property of f , and Jensen?s inequality, we have !2 2 1 X 2 1 X ? 2 ?? (xr , xt ) ? ? ? (xr , xt ) fn (X) ? f (X) ? nxs x ?x nxs x ?x t s t s  2 X   2? 2?2 X 2 2 ? ? (xr , xs ) + ? (xs , xt ) ? 2r + 2t . nxs x ?x nxs x ?x t s t The variance term is easily bounded as follows: 2 X EY n |Yt ? f (xt )|2 ?2Y En fn (X) ? f?n (X) = ? . Y n2xs nxs x ?x t s 6 s Now take the expectation over X ? U {xt : t ? Phase i}. We have: X 2 2 E n En |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? 1{X ? xs } E En |fn (X) ? f (X)| = ni Y Y xs ?Xi 1 X ? ni X xs ?Xi xr ?xs 2?2 X ?2Y + nxs nxs x ?x t !  2 2r + t s 2?2 X 1 X 1 X 2 ?Y + = ni ni nxs x ?x xs ?Xi xs ?Xi ?2 ? |Xi | 4?2 X = Y + ni ni r t?Phase i ni ? 2 ? 2+d s 2r + 2t  xt ?xs ?2 ? |Xi | 4?2 2t = Y + ni ni X xs ?Xi xt ?xs To bound the last term, we have Z X X ? 2 2t = t 2+di ? X i 2 1? 2+d d? ? 3ni i X 2t . t?Phase i . 0 ti ?[ni ] Combine with the previous derivation and with both statements of Lemma 3 to get  ? 2  2 ? 2+d ?2 ? |Xi | 2 i E En |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? Y + 12?2 ni ? C? 4d ?2Y + 12?2 ni 2+d . ni Y ni Corollary 1 (Combined phases). Suppose the algorithm parameter C? ? C?? , then we have   2 2 E n En |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? 2 C? 4d ?2Y + 12?2 n? 2+d . Y Proof. Let I denote the number of phases up to time n. We will decompose the expectation E n in terms of the various phases i ? [I] and apply Lemma 4. Let B , C? 4d ?2Y + 12?2 . We have: 2 E n En |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? B I X ni ? 2 ni 2+d I d I X 1 2+d I ni =B ?B n i=1 I n I X ni d ! 2+d n I i=1 d   2 2 2 2 I n 2+d = B ? I 2+d n? 2+d ? B ? d 2+d n? 2+d , =B n I where in the second inequality we use Jensen?s inequality, and in the last inequality Lemma 3. Y 4.2 i=1 Bound on L2 Error We need the following lemma, whose proof is in the supplemental appendix, which bounds the probability that a ?-ball of a given radius contains a sample from xn . This will then allow us to bound the bias induced by transforming a solution for the adversarial setting to a solution for the stochastic setting. Lemma 5. Suppose (X , ?, ?) has metric measure dimension d. Let ? be a distribution on X and let ?n denote an empirical distribution on an i.i.d sample xn from ?. For  > 1/n, let B denote the class of ?-balls centered on X of radius . There exists C depending on d such that the following holds. Let 0 < ? < 1, Define ?n,? = C (d log n + log(1/?)). Then, with probability at least 1 ? ?, for all B ? B satisfying ?(B) ? ?n,? /n we have ?n (B) > 1/n. We are now ready to prove Theorem 1. Proof of Theorem 1. Fix ? = 1/n and define ?n,? as in Lemma 5. Pick  = (?n,? /C1 n)1/d ? 1/n, where C1 is such that every B ? B has mass at least C1 d . Since for every B ? B , ?(B) ? C1 ?d ? ?n,? /n, we have by Lemma 5, that with probability at least 1 ? ?, all B ? B contain a point from xn . In other words, the event E that xn forms an -cover of X is (1 ? ?)-likely. 7 Suppose xt is the closest point in xn to x ? X . We write x ? xt . Then, under E, we have, kf (x) ? f (xt )k ? ?. We therefore have by Fubini?s theorem  2 2 E kfn ? f k = E E E |fn (X) ? f (X)| ? (1{E} + 1 E? ) xn ,Y n 2,? xn X Y n |xn ? En x ? En x n X 2 2?(x : x ? xt ) nE n |fn (xt ) ? f (xt )| + 2?2 2 + ??2Y Y |x t=1 n X t=1 2C2 d 2 E |fn (xt ) ? f (xt )| + 2?2 2 + ??2Y Y n |xn 2C2 ?n,? 2 ? sup E n En |fn (xt ) ? f (xt )| + 2?2 2 + ??2Y , Y C1 xn where in the first inequality we break the integration over the Voronoi partition of X defined by the points in xn , and introduce f (xt ); the second inequality uses {x : x ? xt } ? B(xt , ) under E. 4.3 Lower-bound Let?s consider first the case of a fixed n. The idea behind the proof is as follows: for ? fixed, we have to come up with a class F of functions which vary considerably on the space X . To this end we discretize X into as many cells as possible, and let any f ? F potentially change sign from one cell to the other. The larger the dimension d the more we can discretize the space and the more complex F, subject to a Lipschitz constraint. The problem of picking the right f can thus be reduced to that of classification, since the learner has to discover the sign of f on sufficiently many cells. In order to handle many data sizes n simultaneously, we borrow from the idea above. Say we want to show that the lower-bound holds for a subsequence {ni } simultaneously. Then we reserve a subset of the space X for each n1 , n2 , . . ., and discretize each subset according to ni . The functions in F have to then vary sufficiently in each subset of the space X according to the corresponding ni . This is illustrated in Figure 3. We can then apply the same idea of reduction to classification for each nt separately. This sort of idea appears in [7] where ? is uniform on the Euclidean cube, where they use the regularity of the cube to set up the right sequence of discretizations over subsets of the cube. The main technicality in our result is that we work with a general space without much regularity. The lack of regularity makes it unclear a priori how to divide such a space into Figure 3: Lower bound proof idea. subsets of the proper size for each ni . Last, we have to ensure that the functions f ? F resulting from our discretization of a general metric space X are in fact Lipschitz. For this, we extend some of the ideas from [9] which handles the case of a fixed n. For lack of space, the complete proof is in the extended version of the paper. 5 Conclusions We presented an efficient and nearly minimax optimal approach to nonparametric regression in a streaming setting. The streaming setting is gaining more attention as modern data sizes are getting larger, and as data is being acquired online in many applications. The main insights behind the approach presented extend to other nonparametric methods, and are likely to extend to settings of a more adversrial nature. We left open the question of optimal adaptation to the smoothness of the unknown function, while we effciently solve the equally or more important question of adapting to the the unknown dimension of the data, which generally has a stronger effect on the convergence rate. 8 References [1] Y. Ben-Haim and E. Tom-Tov. A streaming parallel decision tree algorithm. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:849?872, 2010. [2] A. Beygelzimer, S. Kakade, and J. Langford. Cover trees for nearest neighbors. ICML, 2006. [3] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2006. [4] K. Clarkson. Nearest-neighbor searching and metric space dimensions. Nearest-Neighbor Methods for Learning and Vision: Theory and Practice, 2005. [5] P. Domingos and G. Hulten. Mining high-speed data streams. In Proceedings of the 6th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 71?80, 2000. [6] H. Gu and J. Lafferty. 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Robot Juggling: An Implementation of Memory-based Learning. Control Systems Magazine, IEEE, 1994. [13] C. J. Stone. Optimal rates of convergence for non-parametric estimators. Ann. Statist., 8:1348? 1360, 1980. [14] C. J. Stone. Optimal global rates of convergence for non-parametric estimators. Ann. Statist., 10:1340?1353, 1982. [15] M. A. Taddy, R. B. Gramacy, and N. G. Polson. Dynamic trees for learning and design. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(493), 2011. [16] S. Vijayakumar and S. Schaal. Locally weighted projection regression: An O(n) algorithm for incremental real time learning in high dimensional space. In in Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1079?1086, 2000. 9
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Graphical Models for Inference with Missing Data Karthika Mohan Judea Pearl Dept. of Computer Science Dept. of Computer Science Univ. of California, Los Angeles Univ. of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90095 Los Angeles, CA 90095 [email protected] [email protected] Jin Tian Dept. of Computer Science Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011 [email protected] Abstract We address the problem of recoverability i.e. deciding whether there exists a consistent estimator of a given relation Q, when data are missing not at random. We employ a formal representation called ?Missingness Graphs? to explicitly portray the causal mechanisms responsible for missingness and to encode dependencies between these mechanisms and the variables being measured. Using this representation, we derive conditions that the graph should satisfy to ensure recoverability and devise algorithms to detect the presence of these conditions in the graph. 1 Introduction The ?missing data? problem arises when values for one or more variables are missing from recorded observations. The extent of the problem is evidenced from the vast literature on missing data in such diverse fields as social science, epidemiology, statistics, biology and computer science. Missing data could be caused by varied factors such as high cost involved in measuring variables, failure of sensors, reluctance of respondents in answering certain questions or an ill-designed questionnaire. Missing data also plays a major role in survival data analysis and has been treated primarily using Kaplan-Meier estimation [30]. In machine learning, a typical example is the Recommender System [16] that automatically generates a list of products that are of potential interest to a given user from an incomplete dataset of user ratings. Online portals such as Amazon and eBay employ such systems. Other areas such as data mining [7], knowledge discovery [18] and network tomography [2] are also plagued by missing data problems. Missing data can have several harmful consequences [23, 26]. Firstly they can significantly bias the outcome of research studies. This is mainly because the response profiles of non-respondents and respondents can be significantly different from each other. Hence ignoring the former distorts the true proportion in the population. Secondly, performing the analysis using only complete cases and ignoring the cases with missing values can reduce the sample size thereby substantially reducing estimation efficiency. Finally, many of the algorithms and statistical techniques are generally tailored to draw inferences from complete datasets. It may be difficult or even inappropriate to apply these algorithms and statistical techniques on incomplete datasets. 1.1 Existing Methods for Handling Missing Data There are several methods for handling missing data, described in a rich literature of books, articles and software packages, which are briefly summarized here1 . Of these, listwise deletion and pairwise deletion are used in approximately 96% of studies in the social and behavioral sciences [24]. Listwise deletion refers to a simple method in which cases with missing values are deleted [3]. Unless data are missing completely at random, listwise deletion can bias the outcome [31]. Pairwise 1 For detailed discussions we direct the reader to the books- [1, 6, 13, 17]. 1 deletion (or ?available case?) is a deletion method used for estimating pairwise relations among variables. For example, to compute the covariance of variables X and Y , all those cases or observations in which both X and Y are observed are used, regardless of whether other variables in the dataset have missing values. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a general technique for finding maximum likelihood (ML) estimates from incomplete data. It has been proven that likelihood-based inference while ignoring the missing data mechanism, leads to unbiased estimates under the assumption of missing at random (MAR) [13]. Most work in machine learning assumes MAR and proceeds with ML or Bayesian inference. Exceptions are recent works on collaborative filtering and recommender systems which develop probabilistic models that explicitly incorporate missing data mechanism [16, 14, 15]. ML is often used in conjunction with imputation methods, which in layman terms, substitutes a reasonable guess for each missing value [1]. A simple example is Mean Substitution, in which all missing observations of variable X are substituted with the mean of all observed values of X. Hot-deck imputation, cold-deck imputation [17] and Multiple Imputation [26, 27] are examples of popular imputation procedures. Although these techniques work well in practice, performance guarantees (eg: convergence and unbiasedness) are based primarily on simulation experiments. Missing data discussed so far is a special case of coarse data, namely data that contains observations made in the power set rather than the sample space of variables of interest [12]. The notion of coarsening at random (CAR) was introduced in [12] and identifies the condition under which coarsening mechanism can be ignored while drawing inferences on the distribution of variables of interest [10]. The notion of sequential CAR has been discussed in [9]. For a detailed discussion on coarsened data refer to [30]. Missing data literature leaves many unanswered questions with regard to theoretical guarantees for the resulting estimates, the nature of the assumptions that must be made prior to employing various procedures and whether the assumptions are testable. For a gentle introduction to the missing data problem and the issue of testability refer to [22, 19]. This paper aims to illuminate missing data problems using causal graphs [See Appendix 5.2 for justification]. The questions we pose are: Given a target relation Q to be estimated and a set of assumptions about the missingness process encoded in a graphical model, under what conditions does a consistent estimate exist and how can we elicit it from the data available? We answer these questions with the aid of Missingness Graphs (m-graphs in short) to be described in Section 2. Furthermore, we review the traditional taxonomy of missing data problems and cast it in graphical terms. In Section 3 we define the notion of recoverability - the existence of a consistent estimate - and present graphical conditions for detecting recoverability of a given probabilistic query Q. Conclusions are drawn in Section 4. 2 Graphical Representation of the Missingness Process 2.1 Missingness Graphs X Y Ry X Rx Ry Y* (a) X Y Y Ry Y* Rx Y* X* (b) X (c) Y Ry Y* X* (d) Figure 1: m-graphs for data that are: (a) MCAR, (b) MAR, (c) & (d) MNAR; Hollow and solid circles denote partially and fully observed variables respectively. Graphical models such as DAGs (Directed Acyclic Graphs) can be used for encoding as well as portraying conditional independencies and causal relations, and the graphical criterion called dseparation (refer Appendix-5.1, Definition-3) can be used to read them off the graph [21, 20]. Graphical Models have been used to analyze missing information in the form of missing cases (due to sample selection bias)[4]. Using causal graphs, [8]- analyzes missingness due to attrition (partially 2 observed outcome) and [29]- cautions against the indiscriminate use of auxiliary variables. In both papers missing values are associated with one variable and interactions among several missingness mechanisms remain unexplored. The need exists for a general approach capable of modeling an arbitrary data-generating process and deciding whether (and how) missingness can be outmaneuvered in every dataset generated by that process. Such a general approach should allow each variable to be governed by its own missingness mechanism, and each mechanism to be triggered by other (potentially) partially observed variables in the model. To achieve this flexibility we use a graphical model called ?missingness graph? (mgraph, for short) which is a DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) defined as follows. Let G(V, E) be the causal DAG where V = V ? U ? V ? ? R. V is the set of observable nodes. Nodes in the graph correspond to variables in the data set. U is the set of unobserved nodes (also called latent variables). E is the set of edges in the DAG. Oftentimes we use bi-directed edges as a shorthand notation to denote the existence of a U variable as common parent of two variables in Vo ? Vm ? R. V is partitioned into Vo and Vm such that Vo ? V is the set of variables that are observed in all records in the population and Vm ? V is the set of variables that are missing in at least one record. Variable X is termed as fully observed if X ? Vo and partially observed if X ? Vm . Associated with every partially observed variable Vi ? Vm are two other variables Rvi and Vi? , where Vi? is a proxy variable that is actually observed, and Rvi represents the status of the causal mechanism responsible for the missingness of Vi? ; formally,  vi if rvi = 0 ? vi = f (rvi , vi ) = (1) m if rvi = 1 Contrary to conventional use, Rvi is not treated merely as the missingness indicator but as a driver (or a switch) that enforces equality between Vi and Vi? . V ? is a set of all proxy variables and R is the set of all causal mechanisms that are responsible for missingness. R variables may not be parents of variables in V ? U . This graphical representation succinctly depicts both the causal relationships among variables in V and the process that accounts for missingness in some of the variables. We call this graphical representation Missingness Graph or m-graph for short. Since every d-separation in the graph implies conditional independence in the distribution [21], the mgraph provides an effective way of representing the statistical properties of the missingness process and, hence, the potential of recovering the statistics of variables in Vm from partially missing data. 2.2 Taxonomy of Missingness Mechanisms It is common to classify missing data mechanisms into three types [25, 13]: Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) : Data are MCAR if the probability that Vm is missing is independent of Vm or any other variable in the study, as would be the case when respondents decide to reveal their income levels based on coin-flips. Missing At Random (MAR) : Data are MAR if for all data cases Y , P (R|Yobs , Ymis ) = P (R|Yobs ) where Yobs denotes the observed component of Y and Ymis , the missing component. Example: Women in the population are more likely to not reveal their age. Missing Not At Random (MNAR) or ?non-ignorable missing?: Data that are neither MAR nor MCAR are termed as MNAR. Example: Online shoppers rate an item with a high probability either if they love the item or if they loathe it. In other words, the probability that a shopper supplies a rating is dependent on the shopper?s underlying liking [16]. Because it invokes specific values of the observed and unobserved variables, (i.e., Yobs and Ymis ), many authors find Rubin?s definition difficult to apply in practice and prefer to work with definitions expressed in terms of independencies among variables (see [28, 11, 6, 17]). In the graph-based interpretation used in this paper, MCAR is defined as total independence between R and Vo ?Vm ?U i.e. R? ?(Vo ? Vm ? U ), as depicted in Figure 1(a). MAR is defined as independence between R and Vm ?U given Vo i.e. R? ?Vm ?U |Vo , as depicted in Figure 1(b). Finally if neither of these conditions hold, data are termed MNAR, as depicted in Figure 1(c) and (d). This graph-based interpretation uses slightly stronger assumptions than Rubin?s, with the advantage that the user can comprehend, encode and communicate the assumptions that determine the classification of the problem. Additionally, the conditional independencies that define each class are represented explicitly as separation conditions 3 in the corresponding m-graphs. We will use this taxonomy in the rest of the paper, and will label data MCAR, MAR and MNAR according to whether the defining conditions, R??Vo ? Vm ? U (for MCAR), R? ?Vm ? U |Vo (for MAR) are satisfied in the corresponding m-graphs. 3 Recoverability In this section we will examine the conditions under which a bias-free estimate of a given probabilistic relation Q can be computed. We shall begin by defining the notion of recoverability. Definition 1 (Recoverability). Given a m-graph G, and a target relation Q defined on the variables in V , Q is said to be recoverable in G if there exists an algorithm that produces a consistent estimate of Q for every dataset D such that P (D) is (1) compatible with G and (2) strictly positive over complete cases i.e. P (Vo , Vm , R = 0) > 0.2 Here we assume that the observed distribution over complete cases P (Vo , Vm , R = 0) is strictly positive, thereby rendering recoverability a property that can be ascertained exclusively from the m-graph. Corollary 1. A relation Q is recoverable in G if and only if Q can be expressed in terms of the probability P (O) where O = {R, V ? , Vo } is the set of observable variables in G. In other words, for any two models M1 and M2 inducing distributions P M1 and P M2 respectively, if P M1 (O) = P M2 (O) > 0 then QM1 = QM2 . Proof: (sketch) The corollary merely rephrases the requirement of obtaining a consistent estimate to that of expressibility in terms of observables. Practically, what recoverability means is that if the data D are generated by any process compatible ? with G, a procedure exists that computes an estimator Q(D) such that, in the limit of large samples, ? Q(D) converges to Q. Such a procedure is called a ?consistent estimator.? Thus, recoverability is the sole property of G and Q, not of the data available, or of any routine chosen to analyze or process the data. Recoverability when data are MCAR For MCAR data we have R??(Vo ? Vm ). Therefore, we can write P (V ) = P (V |R) = P (Vo , V ? |R = 0). Since both R and V ? are observables, the joint probability P (V ) is consistently estimable (hence recoverable) by considering complete cases only (listwise deletion), as shown in the following example. Example 1. Let X be the treatment and Y be the outcome as depicted in the m-graph in Fig. 1 (a). Let it be the case that we accidentally deleted the values of Y for a handful of samples, hence Y ? Vm . Can we recover P (X, Y )? From D, we can compute P (X, Y ? , Ry ). From the m-graph G, we know that Y ? is a collider and hence by d-separation, (X ? Y )? ?Ry . Thus P (X, Y ) = P (X, Y |Ry ). In particular, P (X, Y ) = P (X, Y |Ry = 0). When Ry = 0, by eq. (1), Y ? = Y . Hence, P (X, Y ) = P (X, Y ? |Ry = 0) (2) The RHS of Eq. 2 is consistently estimable from D; hence P (X, Y ) is recoverable. Recoverability when data are MAR When data are MAR, we have R??Vm |Vo . Therefore P (V ) = P (Vm |Vo )P (Vo ) = P (Vm |Vo , R = 0)P (Vo ). Hence the joint distribution P (V ) is recoverable. Example 2. Let X be the treatment and Y be the outcome as depicted in the m-graph in Fig. 1 (b). Let it be the case that some patients who underwent treatment are not likely to report the outcome, hence the arrow X ? Ry . Under the circumstances, can we recover P (X, Y )? From D, we can compute P (X, Y ? , Ry ). From the m-graph G, we see that Y ? is a collider and X is a fork. Hence by d-separation, Y ? ?Ry |X. Thus P (X, Y ) = P (Y |X)P (X) = P (Y |X, Ry )P (X). 2 In many applications such as truncation by death, the problem forbids certain combinations of events from occurring, in which case the definition need be modified to accommodate such constraints as shown in Appendix-5.3. Though this modification complicates the definition of ?recoverability?, it does not change the basic results derived in this paper. 4 In particular, P (X, Y ) = P (Y |X, Ry = 0)P (X). When Ry = 0, by eq. (1), Y ? = Y . Hence, P (X, Y ) = P (Y ? |X, Ry = 0)P (X) (3) and since X is fully observable, P (X, Y ) is recoverable. Note that eq. (2) permits P (X, Y ) to be recovered by listwise deletion, while eq. (3) does not; it requires that P (X) be estimated first over all samples, including those in which Y is missing. In this paper we focus on recoverability under large sample assumption and will not be dealing with the shrinking sample size issue. Recoverability when data are MNAR Data that are neither MAR nor MCAR are termed MNAR. Though it is generally believed that relations in MNAR datasets are not recoverable, the following example demonstrates otherwise. Example 3. Fig. 1 (d) depicts a study where (i) some units who underwent treatment (X = 1) did not report the outcome (Y ) and (ii) we accidentally deleted the values of treatment for a handful of cases. Thus we have missing values for both X and Y which renders the dataset MNAR. We shall show that P (X, Y ) is recoverable. From D, we can compute P (X ? , Y ? , Rx , Ry ). From the m-graph G, we see that X? ?Rx and Y ??(Rx ? Ry )|X. Thus P (X, Y ) = P (Y |X)P (X) = P (Y |X, Ry = 0, Rx = 0)P (X|Rx = 0). When Ry = 0 and Rx = 0 we have (by Equation (1) ), Y ? = Y and X ? = X. Hence, P (X, Y ) = P (Y ? |X ? , Rx = 0, Ry = 0)P (X ? |Rx = 0) (4) Therefore, P (X, Y ) is recoverable. The estimand in eq. (4) also dictates how P (X, Y ) should be estimated from the dataset. In the first step, we delete all cases in which X is missing and create a new data set D0 from which we estimate P (X). Dataset D0 is further pruned to form dataset D00 by removing all cases in which Y is missing. P (Y |X) is then computed from D00 . Note that order matters; had we deleted cases in the reverse order, Y and then X, the resulting estimate would be biased because the d-separations needed for establishing the validity of the estimand: P (X|Y )P (Y ), are not supported by G. We will call this sequence of deletions as deletion order. Several features are worth noting regarding this graph-based taxonomy of missingness mechanisms. First, although MCAR and MAR can be verified by inspecting the m-graph, they cannot, in general be verified from the data alone. Second, the assumption of MCAR allows an estimation procedure that amounts (asymptotically) to listwise deletion, while MAR dictates a procedure that amounts to listwise deletion in every stratum of Vo . Applying MAR procedure to MCAR problem is safe, because all conditional independencies required for recoverability under the MAR assumption also hold in an MCAR problem, i.e. R? ?(Vo , Vm ) ? R??Vm |Vo . The converse, however, does not hold, as can be seen in Fig. 1 (b). Applying listwise deletion is likely to result in bias, because the necessary condition R? ?(Vo , Vm ) is violated in the graph. An interesting property which evolves from this discussion is that recoverability of certain relations does not require RVi ??Vi |Vo ; a subset of Vo would suffice as shown below. Property 1. P (Vi ) is recoverable if ?W ? Vo such that RVi ??V |W . P Proof: P (Vi ) may be decomposed as: P (Vi ) = w P (Vi? |Rvi = 0, W )P (W ) since Vi ??RVi |W and W ? Vo . Hence P (Vi ) is recoverable. It is important to note that the recoverability of P (X, Y ) in Fig. 1(d) was feasible despite the fact that the missingness model would not be considered Rubin?s MAR (as defined in [25]). In fact, an overwhelming majority of the data generated by each one of our MNAR examples would be outside Rubin?s MAR. For a brief discussion on these lines, refer to Appendix- 5.4. Our next question is: how can we determine if a given relation is recoverable? The following theorem provides a sufficient condition for recoverability. 3.1 Conditions for Recoverability Theorem 1. A query Q defined over variables in Vo ? Vm is recoverable if it is decomposable into terms of the form Qj = P (Sj |Tj ) such that Tj contains the missingness mechanism Rv = 0 of every partially observed variable V that appears in Qj . 5 Proof: If such a decomposition exists, every Qj is estimable from the data, hence the entire expression for Q is recoverable. Example 4. Equation (4) demonstrates a decomposition of Q = P (X, Y ) into a product of two terms Q1 = P (Y |X, Rx = 0, Ry = 0) and Q2 = P (X|Rx = 0) that satisfy the condition of Theorem 1. Hence Q is recoverable. Example 5. Consider the problem of recovering Q = P (X, Y ) from the m-graph of Fig. 3(b). Attempts to decompose Q by the chain rule, as was done in Eqs. (3) and (4) would not satisfy the conditions of Theorem 1. To witness we write P (X, Y ) = P (Y |X)P (X) and note that the graph does not permit us to augment any of the two terms with the necessary Rx or Ry terms; X is independent of Rx only if we condition on Y , which is partially observed, and Y is independent of Ry only if we condition on X which is also partially observed. This deadlock can be disentangled however using a non-conventional decomposition: P (Rx , Ry |X, Y ) Q = P (X, Y ) = P (X, Y ) P (Rx , Ry |X, Y ) P (Rx , Ry )P (X, Y |Rx , Ry ) = (5) P (Rx |Y, Ry )P (Ry |X, Rx ) where the denominator was obtained using the independencies Rx ??(X, Ry )|Y and Ry ? ?(Y, Rx )|X shown in the graph. The final expression above satisfies Theorem 1 and renders P (X, Y ) recoverable. This example again shows that recovery is feasible even when data are MNAR. Theorem 2 operationalizes the decomposability requirement of Theorem 1. Theorem 2 (Recoverability of the Joint P (V )). Given a m-graph G with no edges between the R variables and no latent variables as parents of R variables, a necessary and sufficient condition for recovering the joint distribution P (V ) is that no variable X be a parent of its missingness mechanism RX . Moreover, when recoverable, P (V ) is given by P (R = 0, v) , (6) P (v) = Q o m m i P (Ri = 0|pari , pari , RP ar = 0) i where P aori ? Vo and P am ri ? Vm are the parents of Ri . Proof. (sufficiency) The observed joint distribution may be decomposed according to G as X P (R = 0, v) = P (v, u)P (R = 0|v, u) u = P (v) Y P (Ri = 0|paori , pam ri ), (7) i where we have used the facts that there are no edges between the R variables, and that there are no latent variables as parents of R variables. If Vi is not a parent of Ri (i.e. Vi 6? P am ri ), then we have Ri ? ?RP am |(P aori ? P am ri ). Therefore, r i o m P (Ri = 0|paori , pam = 0). ri ) = P (Ri = 0|pari , pari , RP am r i (8) Given strictly positive P (R = 0, Vm , Vo ), we have that all probabilities P (Ri = 0|paori , pam = 0) are strictly positive. Using Equations (7) and (8) , we conclude that ri , RP am ri P (V ) is recoverable as given by Eq. (6). (necessity) If X is a parent of its missingness mechanism RX , then P (X) is not recoverable based on Lemmas 3 and 4 in Appendix 5.5. Therefore the joint P (V ) is not recoverable. The following theorem gives a sufficient condition for recovering the joint distribution in a Markovian model. Theorem 3. Given a m-graph with no latent variables (i.e., Markovian) the joint distribution P (V ) is recoverable if no missingness mechanism RX is a descendant of its corresponding variable X. Moreover, if recoverable, then P (V ) is given by Y Y P (v) = P (vi |paoi , pam = 0) P (vj |paoj , pam = 0), (9) i , RP am j , RVj = 0, RP am i j i,Vi ?Vo j,Vj ?Vm where P aoi ? Vo and P am i ? Vm are the parents of Vi . 6 Proof: Refer Appendix-5.6 Definition 2 (Ordered factorization). An ordered factorization over a set O of ordered V variables Y1 < Y2 < . . . < Yk , denoted by f (O), is a product of conditional probabilities f (O) = Q ?({Yi+1 , . . . , Yn }\Xi )|Xi . i P (Yi |Xi ) where Xi ? {Yi+1 , . . . , Yn } is a minimal set such that Yi ? Theorem 4. A sufficient condition for recoverability of a relation Q is that Q be decomposable into an ordered factorization, or a sum of such factorizations, such that every factor Qi = P (Yi |Xi ) satisfies Yi ? ?(Ryi , Rxi )|Xi . A factorization that satisfies this condition will be called admissible. X RX RY Rx (a) 4 X3 X2 X1 Y Rx X4 Rx 3 2 Z RY X RZ (c) (b) Y RX X RX Y RY Z RZ (d) Figure 2: Graph in which (a) only P (X|Y ) is recoverable (b) P (X4 ) is recoverable only when conditioned on X1 as shown in Example 6 (c) P (X, Y, Z) is recoverable (d) P (X, Z) is recoverable. Proof. follows from Theorem-1 noting that ordered factorization is one specific form of decomposition. Theorem 4 will allow us to confirm recoverability of certain queries Q in models such as those in Fig. 2(a), (b) and (d), which do not satisfy the requirement in Theorem 2. For example, by applying Theorem 4 we can conclude that, (1) in Figure 2 (a), P (X|Y ) = P (X|Rx = 0, Ry = 0, Y ) is recoverable, (2) in Figure 2 (c), P (X, Y, Z) = P (Z|X, Y, Rz = 0, Rx = 0, Ry = 0)P (X|Y, Rx = 0, Ry = 0)P (Y |Ry = 0) is recoverable and (3) in Figure 2 (d), P (X, Z) = P (X, Z|Rx = 0, Rz = 0) is recoverable. Note that the condition of Theorem 4 differs from that of Theorem 1 in two ways. Firstly, the decomposition is limited to ordered factorizations i.e. Yi is a singleton and Xi a set. Secondly, both Yi and Xi are taken from Vo ? Vm , thus excluding R variables. Example 6. Consider the query Q = P (X4 ) in Fig. 2(b). Q can be decomposed in a variety of ways, among them P being the factorizations: (a) P (X4 ) = Px3 P (X4 |X3 )P (X3 ) for the order X4 , X3 (b) P (X4 ) = x2 P (X4 |X2 )P (X2 ) for the order X4 , X2 P (c) P (X4 ) = x1 P (X4 |X1 )P (X1 ) for the order X4 , X1 Although each of X1 , X2 and X3 d-separate X4 from RP X4 , only (c) is admissible since each factor satisfies Theorem 4. Specifically, (c) can be written as x1 P (X4? |X1 , RX4 = 0)P (X1 ) and can be estimated by the deletion schedule (X1 , X4 ), i.e., in each stratum of X1 , we delete samples for which RX4 = 1 and compute P (X4? , Rx4 = 0, X1 ). In (a) and (b) however, Theorem-4 is not satisfied since the graph does not permit us to rewrite P (X3 ) as P (X3 |Rx3 = 0) or P (X2 ) as P (X2 |Rx2 = 0). 3.2 Heuristics for Finding Admissible Factorization Consider the task of estimating Q = P (X), where X is a set, by searching for an admissible factorization of P (X) (one that satisfies Theorem 4), possibly by resorting to additional variables, Z, residing outside of X that serve as separating sets. Since there are exponentially large number of ordered factorizations, it would be helpful to rule out classes of non-admissible ordering prior to their enumeration whenever non-admissibility can be detected in the graph. In this section, we provide lemmata that would aid in pruning process by harnessing information from the graph. Lemma 1. An ordered set O will not yield an admissible decomposition if there exists a partially observed variable Vi in the order O which is not marginally independent of RVi such that all minimal separators (refer Appendix-5.1, Definition-4) of Vi that d-separate it from Rvi appear before Vi . Proof: Refer Appendix-5.7 7 A B D C E RC X Y RY RX F RD RA RE RB (b) (a) Figure 3: demonstrates (a) pruning in Example-7 (b) P (X, Y ) is recoverable in Example-5 Applying lemma-1 requires a solution to a set of disjunctive constraints which can be represented by directed constraint graphs [5]. Example 7. Let Q = P (X) be the relation to be recovered from the graph in Fig. 3 (a). Let X = {A, B, C, D, E} and Z = F . The total number of ordered factorizations is 6! = 720. The independencies implied by minimal separators (as required by Lemma-1) are: A??RA |B, B? ?RB |?, C? ?RC |{D, E}, ( D? ?RD |A or D??RD |C or D??RD |B ) and (E??RE |{B, F } or E? ?RE |{B, D} or E? ?RE |C). To test whether (B,A,D,E,C,F) is potentially admissible we need not explicate all 6 variables; this order can be ruled out as soon as we note that A appears after B. Since B is the only minimal separator that d-separates A from RA and B precedes A, Lemma-1 is violated. Orders such as (C, D, E, A, B, F ), (C, D, A, E, B, F ) and (C, E, D, A, F, B) satisfy the condition stated in Lemma 1 and are potential candidates for admissibility. The following lemma presents a simple test to determine non-admissibility by specifying the condition under which a given order can be summarily removed from the set of candidate orders that are likely to yield admissible factorizations. Lemma 2. An ordered set O will not yield an admissible decomposition if it contains a partially observed variable Vi for which there exists no set S ? V that d-separates Vi from RVi . Proof: The factor P (Vi |Vi+1 , . . . , Vn ) corresponding to Vi can never satisfy the condition required by Theorem 4. An interesting consequence of Lemma 2 is the following corollary that gives a sufficient condition under which no ordered factorization can be labeled admissible. Corollary 2. For any disjoint sets X and Y , there exists no admissible factorization for recovering the relation P (Y |X) by Theorem 4 if Y contains a partially observed variable Vi for which there exists no set S ? V that d-separates Vi from RVi . 4 Conclusions We have demonstrated that causal graphical models depicting the data generating process can serve as a powerful tool for analyzing missing data problems and determining (1) if theoretical impediments exist to eliminating bias due to data missingness, (2) whether a given procedure produces consistent estimates, and (3) whether such a procedure can be found algorithmically. We formalized the notion of recoverability and showed that relations are always recoverable when data are missing at random (MCAR or MAR) and, more importantly, that in many commonly occurring problems, recoverability can be achieved even when data are missing not at random (MNAR). We further presented a sufficient condition to ensure recoverability of a given relation Q (Theorem 1) and operationalized Theorem 1 using graphical criteria (Theorems 2, 3 and 4). In summary, we demonstrated some of the insights and capabilities that can be gained by exploiting causal knowledge in missing data problems. Acknowledgment This research was supported in parts by grants from NSF #IIS-1249822 and #IIS-1302448 and ONR #N00014-13-1-0153 and #N00014-10-1-0933 References [1] P.D. Allison. Missing data series: Quantitative applications in the social sciences, 2002. 8 [2] T. Bu, N. Duffield, F.L. Presti, and D. Towsley. Network tomography on general topologies. In ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review, volume 30, pages 21?30. ACM, 2002. [3] E.R. Buhi, P. Goodson, and T.B. Neilands. Out of sight, not out of mind: strategies for handling missing data. American journal of health behavior, 32:83?92, 2008. [4] R.M. Daniel, M.G. Kenward, S.N. Cousens, and B.L. De Stavola. Using causal diagrams to guide analysis in missing data problems. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 21(3):243?256, 2012. [5] R. Dechter, I. Meiri, and J. Pearl. Temporal constraint networks. Artificial intelligence, 1991. [6] C.K. Enders. Applied Missing Data Analysis. Guilford Press, 2010. [7] U.M. Fayyad. Data mining and knowledge discovery: Making sense out of data. IEEE expert, 11(5):20? 25, 1996. [8] F. M. Garcia. Definition and diagnosis of problematic attrition in randomized controlled experiments. Working paper, April 2013. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2267120. [9] R.D. Gill and J.M. Robins. Sequential models for coarsening and missingness. In Proceedings of the First Seattle Symposium in Biostatistics, pages 295?305. Springer, 1997. [10] R.D. Gill, M.J. Van Der Laan, and J.M. Robins. Coarsening at random: Characterizations, conjectures, counter-examples. In Proceedings of the First Seattle Symposium in Biostatistics, pages 255?294. Springer, 1997. [11] J.W Graham. Missing Data: Analysis and Design (Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences). Springer, 2012. [12] D.F. Heitjan and D.B. Rubin. Ignorability and coarse data. The Annals of Statistics, pages 2244?2253, 1991. [13] R.J.A. Little and D.B. Rubin. Statistical analysis with missing data. Wiley, 2002. [14] B.M. Marlin and R.S. Zemel. Collaborative prediction and ranking with non-random missing data. In Proceedings of the third ACM conference on Recommender systems, pages 5?12. ACM, 2009. [15] B.M. Marlin, R.S. Zemel, S. Roweis, and M. Slaney. Collaborative filtering and the missing at random assumption. In UAI, 2007. [16] B.M. Marlin, R.S. Zemel, S.T. Roweis, and M. Slaney. Recommender systems: missing data and statistical model estimation. In IJCAI, 2011. [17] P.E. McKnight, K.M. McKnight, S. Sidani, and A.J. Figueredo. Missing data: A gentle introduction. Guilford Press, 2007. [18] Harvey J Miller and Jiawei Han. Geographic data mining and knowledge discovery. CRC, 2009. [19] K. Mohan and J. Pearl. On the testability of models with missing data. To appear in the Proceedings of AISTAT-2014; Available at http://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat ser/r415.pdf. [20] J. Pearl. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference. Morgan Kaufmann, 1988. [21] J. Pearl. Causality: models, reasoning and inference. Cambridge Univ Press, New York, 2009. [22] J. Pearl and K. Mohan. Recoverability and testability of missing data: Introduction and summary of results. Technical Report R-417, UCLA, 2013. Available at http://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat ser/r417.pdf. [23] C.Y.J. Peng, M. Harwell, S.M. Liou, and L.H. Ehman. Advances in missing data methods and implications for educational research. Real data analysis, pages 31?78, 2006. [24] J.L. Peugh and C.K. Enders. Missing data in educational research: A review of reporting practices and suggestions for improvement. Review of educational research, 74(4):525?556, 2004. [25] D.B. Rubin. Inference and missing data. Biometrika, 63:581?592, 1976. [26] D.B. Rubin. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. Wiley Online Library, New York, NY, 1987. [27] D.B. Rubin. Multiple imputation after 18+ years. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91(434):473?489, 1996. [28] J.L. Schafer and J.W. Graham. Missing data: our view of the state of the art. Psychological Methods, 7(2):147?177, 2002. [29] F. Thoemmes and N. Rose. Selection of auxiliary variables in missing data problems: Not all auxiliary variables are created equal. Technical Report Technical Report R-002, Cornell University, 2013. [30] M.J. Van der Laan and J.M. Robins. Unified methods for censored longitudinal data and causality. Springer Verlag, 2003. [31] W. Wothke. Longitudinal and multigroup modeling with missing data. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers, 2000. 9
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505 CONNECTING TO THE PAST Bruce A. MacDonald, Assistant Professor Knowledge Sciences Laboratory, Computer Science Department The University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW Calgary, Alberta T2N IN4 ABSTRACT Recently there has been renewed interest in neural-like processing systems, evidenced for example in the two volumes Parallel Distributed Processing edited by Rumelhart and McClelland, and discussed as parallel distributed systems, connectionist models, neural nets, value passing systems and multiple context systems. Dissatisfaction with symbolic manipulation paradigms for artificial intelligence seems partly responsible for this attention, encouraged by the promise of massively parallel systems implemented in hardware. This paper relates simple neural-like systems based on multiple context to some other well-known formalisms-namely production systems, k-Iength sequence prediction, finite-state machines and Turing machines-and presents earlier sequence prediction results in a new light. 1 INTRODUCTION The revival of neural net research has been very strong, exemplified recently by Rumelhart and McClelland!, new journals and a number of meetings G ? The nets are also described as parallel distributed systems!, connectionist models 2 , value passing systems3 and multiple context learning systems4 ,5,6,7,8,9. The symbolic manipulation paradigm for artificial intelligence does not seem to have been as successful as some hoped!, and there seems at last to be real promise of massively parallel systems implemented in hardware. However, in the flurry of new work it is important to consolidate new ideas and place them solidly alongside established ones. This paper relates simple neural-like systems to some other well-known notions-namely production systems, k-Iength sequence prediction, finite-state machines and Turing machines-and presents earlier results on the abilities of such networks in a new light. The general form of a connectionist system lO is simplified to a three layer net with binary fixed weights in the hidden layer, thereby avoiding many of the difficulties-and challengesof the recent work on neural nets, The hidden unit weights are regularly patterned using a template. Sophisticated, expensive learning algorithms are avoided, and a simple method is used for determining output unit weights. In this way we gain some of the advantages of multilayered nets, while retaining some of the simplicity of two layer net training methods. Certainly nothing is lost in computational power-as I will explain-and the limitations of two layer nets are not carried over to the simplified three layer one. Biological systems may similarly avoid the need for learning algorithms such as the "simulated annealing" method commonly used in connectionist models l l . For one thing, biological systems do not have the same clearly distinguished training phase. Briefly, the simplified net b is a production system implemented as three layers of neuron-like units; an output layer, an input layer, and a hidden layer for the productions themselves. Each hidden production unit potentially connects a predetermined set of inputs to any output. A k-Iength sequence predictor is formed once Ie levels of delay unit are introduced into the input layer. k-Iength predictors are unable to distinguish simple sequences such as ba . .. a and aa ... a since after Ie or more characters the system has forgotten whether an a or b appeared first. If the k-Iength predictor is augmented with "auxiliary" actions, it is able to learn this and other regular languages, since the auxiliary actions can be equivalent to states, and can be inputs to aAmong them the 1st International Conference on Neural Nets, San Diego,CA, June 21-24, 1987, and this con.ference. bRoughly equivalent to a single context system in Andreae's multiple context system 4. 5,6,7,8,9. See also MacDonald 12 . @) American Institute of Physics 1988 506 Figure 1: The general form of a connectionist system 10 . (a) Form of a unit (a) Operations within a unit in~uts ;::; L'" excitation-.I weIghts sum 1:.. aCtiVation--W'" output ?--== Typical F Typical f the production units enabling predictions to depend on previous states 7 . By combining several augmented sequence predictors a Thring machine tape can be simulated along with a finite-state controller 9 , giving the net the computational power of a Universal Turing machine. Relatively simple neural-like systems do not lack computational ability. Previous implementations 7,9 of this ability are production system equivalents to the simplified nets. 1.1 Organization of the paper The next section briefly reviews the general form of connectionist systems. Section 2 simplifies this, then section 3 explains that the result is equivalent to a production system dealing only with inputs and outputs of the net. Section 4 extends the simplified version, enabling it to learn to predict sequences. Section 5 explains how the computational power of the sequence predictor can be increased to that of a Thring machine if some input units receive auxiliary actions; in fact the system can learn to be a TUring machine. Section 6 discusses the possibility of a number of nets combining their outputs, forming an overall net with "association areas". 1.2 General form of a connectionist system Figure 1 shows the general form of a connectionist system unit, neuron or ce1l 10 . In the figure unit i has inputs, which are the outputs OJ of possibly all units in the network, and an output of its own, 0i' The net input excitation, net" is the weighted sum of inputs, where !Vij is the weight connecting the output from unit j as an input to unit i. The activation, ai of the unit is some function Fi of the net input excitation. Typically Fi is semilinear, that is non-decreasing and differentiable 13 , and is the same function for all, or at least large groups of units. The output is a function fi of the activation; typically some kind of threshold function. I will assume that the quantities vary over discrete time steps, so for example the activation at time t + 1 is ai (t + 1) and is given by Fi((neti(t)). In general there is no restriction on the connections that may be made between units. Units not connected directly to inputs or outputs are hidden units. In more complex nets than those described in this paper, there may be more than one type of connection. Figure 2 shows a common connection topology, where there are three layers of units-input, hidden and output-with no cycles of connection. The net is trained by presenting it with input combinations, each along with the desired output combination. Once trained the system should produce the desired outputs given just 507 Figure 2: The basic structure of a three layer connectionist system. input units hidden units output units inputs . During training the weights are adjusted in some fashion that reduces the discrepancy between desired and actual output. The general method is lO : (1) where t; is the desired, "training" activation . Equation 1 is a general form of Hebb's classic rule for adjusting the weight between two units with high activations lO ? The weight adjustment is the product of two functions, one that depends on the desired and actual activations--often just the difference-and another that depends on the input to that weight and the weight itself. As a simple example suppose 9 is the difference and h as just the output OJ. Then the weight change is the product of the output error and the input excitation to that weight: where the constant T} determines the learning rate. This is the Widrow-Hoff or Delta rule which may be used in nets without hidden units. 1o The important contribution of recent work on connectionist systems is how to implement equation 1 in hidden units; for which there are no training signals ti directly available . The Boltzmann learning method iteratively varies both weights and hidden unit training activations using the controlled, gradually decreasing randomizing method "simulated annealing" 14. Backpropagation 13 is also iterative, performing gradient descent by propagating training signal errors back through the net to hidden units. I will avoid the need to determine training signals for hidden units, by fixing the weights of hidden units in section 2 below. 2 SIMPLIFIED SYSTEM Assume these simplifications are made to the general connectionist system of section 1.2: 1. The system has three layers, with the topology shown in Figure 2 (ie no cycles) 2. All hidden layer unit weights are fixed, say at unity or zero 3. Each unit is a linear threshold unit lO , which means the activation function for all units is the identity function, giving just net;, a weighted sum of the inputs, and the output function is a simple binary threshold of the form: !- I output threshold / ? activation 508 so that the output is binary; on or oft'. Hidden units will have thresholds requiring all inputs to be active for the output to be active (like an AND gate) while output units will have thresholds requiring only 1 or two active highly weighted inputs for an output to be generated (like an OR gate). This is in keeping with the production system view of the net, explained in section 3. 4. Learning-which now occurs only at the output unit weights-gives weight adjustments according to: Wij Wij 1 if ai = OJ =1 0 otherwise so that weights are turned on if their input and the unit output are on, and off otherwise. That is, Wij = ai A OJ. A simple example is given in Figure 3 in section 3 below. This simple form of net can be made probabilistic by replacing 4 with 4' below: 4'. Adjust weights so that Wij estimates the conditional probability of the unit i output being on when output j is on. That is, Wij = estimate of P(odoj). Then, assuming independence of the inputs to a unit, an output unit is turned on when the conditional probability of occurrence of that output exceeds the threshold of the output function. Once these simplifications are made, there is no need for learning in the hidden units. Also no iterative learning is required; weights are either assigned binary values, or estimate conditional probabilities. This paper presents some of the characteristics of the simplified net. Section 6 discusses the motivation for simplifying neural nets in this way. 3 PRODUCTION SYSTEMS The simplified net is a kind of simple production system. A production system comprises a global database, a set of production rules and a control system 15 . The database for the net is the system it interacts with, providing inputs as reactions to outputs from t.he net. The hidden units of the network are the production rules, which have the form IF precondition THEN action The precondition is satisfied when the input excitation exceeds the threshold of a hidden unit. The actions are represented by the output units which the hidden production units activate. The control system of a production system chooses the rule whose action to perform, from the set of rules whose preconditions have been met. In a neural net the control system is distributed throughout the net in the output units. For example, the output units might form a winner-takeall net. In production systems more complex control involves forward and backward chaining to choose actions that seek goals . This is discussed elsewhere4.12.16. Figure 3 illust.rates a simple production implemented as a neural net. As the figure shows, the inputs to hidden units are just the elements of the precondition. When the appropriate input combination is present the associated hidden (production) unit is fired. Once weights have been leamed connecting hidden units to output units, firing a production results in output. The simplified neural net is directly equivalent to a production system whose elements are inputs and outputs e . Some production systems have symbolic elements, such as variables, which can be given values by production actions. The neural net cannot directly implement this, since it can have outputs only from a predetermined set. However, we will see later that extensions t.o the framework enable this and other abilities. CThis might be referred to as a "sensory-motor" production system, since when implemented ill a l'eal system such as a robot, it deals only with sensed inputs and executable motor actions, which may include the auxiliary actions of section 4.3. 509 Figure 3: A production implemented in a simplified neural net . (a) A production rule rr==~--r=======~~~==~ IF Icloudy I Ipressure falling I AND THEN Iit will rain I (b) The rule implemented as a hidden unit. The threshold of the hidden unit is 2 so it is. an AND gate. The threshold of the output unit is 1 so it is an OR gate. The learned weight will be 0 or 1 if the net is not probabilistic, otherwise it will be an estimate of P(it will rainlclouds AND pressure falling) It will rain weight Figure 4: A net that predicts the next character in a sequence, based on only the last character . (a) The net . Production units (hidden units) have been combined with input units. For example this net could predict the sequence abcabcabc . . .. Productions have the form : IF last character is . .. THEN next character will be . . .. The learning rule is Wij 1 if (inputj AND outputi). Output is ai ~R WijOj = = input neural net output a a b c b c (b) Learning procedure. 1. Clamp inputs and outputs to desired values 2. System calculates weight values 3. Repeat 4 and 4 for all required input/output combinations 4 SEQUENCE PREDICTION A production system or neural net can predict sequences. Given examples of a repeating sequence, productions are learned which predict future events on the basis of recent ones . Figure 4 shows a trivially simple sequence predictor. It predicts the next character of a sequence based on the previous one. The figure also gives the details of the learning procedure for the simplified net. The net need be trained only once on each input combination, then it will "predict" as an output every character seen after the current one. The probabilistic form of the net would estimate conditional probabilities for the next character , conditional on the current one. Many 510 Figure 5: Using delayed inputs, a neural net can implement a k-length sequence predictor. (a) A net with the last three characters as input. input hidden output a':""'"-......:;;;;;;;::::~;:- a { a' a b':-;-'----..", {:';;g 'J.,o b e" {e'_~ 0-" e -_ _ _ c z 2nd last (b) An example production. ~----------------------------------, IF last three characters were ~ THEN 0 presentations of each possible character pair would be needed to properly estimate the probabilities. The net would be learning the probability distribution of character pairs. A predictor like the one in Figure 4 can be extended to a general k-Iength 17 predictor so long as inputs delayed by 1,2, ... , k steps are available. Then, as illustrated in Figure 5 for 3-length prediction, hidden production units represent all possible combinations of k symbols. Again output weights are trained to respond to previously seen input combinations, here of three characters. These delays can be provided by dedicated neural nets d , such as that shown in Figure 6. Note that the net is assumed to be synchronously updated, so that the input from feedback around units is not changed until one step after the output changes. There are various ways of implementing delay in neurons, and Andreae 4 investigates some of them for the same purpose-delaying inputs-in a more detailed simulation of a similar net. 4.1 Other work on sequence prediction in neural nets Feldman and Ballard 2 find connectionist systems initially not suited to representing changes with time. One form of change is sequence, and they suggest two methods for representing sequence in nets. The first is by units connected to each other in sequence so that sequential tasks are represented by firing these units in succession. The second method is to buffer the inputs in time so that inputs from the recent past are available as well as current inputs; that is, delayed inputs are available as suggested above. An important difference is the necessary length of the buffer; Feldman and Ballard suggest the buffer be long enough to hold a phrase of natural language, but I expect to use buffers no longer than about 7, after Andreae 4 . Symbolic inputs can represent more complex information effectively giving the length seven buffers more information than the most recent seven simple inputs, as discussed in section 5. The method of back-propagation13 enables recurrent networks to learn sequential tasks in a dFeldman and Ballard2 give some dedicated neural net connections for a variety of flUlctions 511 Figure 6: Inputs can be delayed by dedicated neural subnets. A two stage delay is shown. (a) Delay network. (b) Timing diagram for (a). --.r- 1.0 IL..-_-_-_-_-_-.:-_-.:-_-.:-_-_-_-_..._ tml _?_e_ B -r-0.5 0.75 ~ 0.375 ....,L-_ _ __ A C D __________ E original signal delay of one step ~r--------r--------~------~L delay of two steps manner similar to the first suggestion in the last paragraph, where sequences of connected units represent sequenced events. In one example a net learns to complete a sequence of characters; when given the first two characters of a six character sequence the next four are output. Errors must be propagated around cycles in a recurrent net a number of times. Seriality may also be achieved by a sequence of states of distributed activation 18. An example is a net playing both sides of a tic-tac-toe game 18 . The sequential nature of the net's behavior is derived from the sequential nature of the responses to the net's actions; tic-tac-toe moves. A net can model sequence internally by modeling a sequential part of its environment. For example, a tic-tac-toe playing net can have a model of its opponent. k-Iength sequence predictors are unable to learn sequences which do not repeat more frequently that every k characters. Their k-Iength context includes only information about the last k events. However, there are two ways in which information from before the kth last input can be retained in the net. The first method latches some inputs, while the second involves auxiliary actions. 4.2 Latch units Inputs can be latched and held indefinitely using the combination shown in Figure 7. Not all inputs would normally be latched. Andreae 4 discusses this technique of "threading" latched events among non-latched events, giving the net both information arbitrarily far back in its input-output history and information from the immediate past . Briefly, the sequence ba . .. a can be distinguished from aa ... a if the first character is latched . However, this is an ad hoc solution to this problem e . 4-3 Auxiliary actions When an output is fed back into the net as an input signal, this enables the system to choose the next output at least partly based on the previous one, as indicated in Figure 8. If a particular fed back output is also one without external manifestation, or whose external manifestation is independent of the task being performed, then that output is an auxiliary action. It Las "The interested reader should refer to Andreae 4 where more extensive analysis is given. 512 Figure 7: Threading. A latch circuit remembers an event until another comes along. This is a two input latch, e.g. for two letters a and b, but any number of units may be similarly connected. It is formed from a mutual inhibition layer, or winner-take-all connection, along with positive feedback to keep the selected output activated when the input disappears. a b---;~..!!J Figure 8: Auxiliary actions-the S outputs-are fed back to the inputs of a net, enabling the net to remember a state. Here both part of a net and an example of a production are shown. There are two types of action, characters and S actions. Sinputs S outputs character inputs IF S input is [?l] and character input is 0 character outputs THEN output character lliJ and S [ill no direct effect on the task the system is performing since it evokes no relevant inputs, and so can be used by the net as a symbolic action. If an auxiliary action is latched at the input then the symbolic information can be remembered indefinitely, being lost only when another auxiliary action of that kind is input and takes over the latch. Thus auxiliary actions can act like remembered states; the system performs an action to "remind" itself to be in a particular state. The figure illustrates this for a system that predicts characters and state changes given the previous character and state. An obvious candidate for auxiliary actions is speech. So the blank oval in the figure would represent the net's environment, through which its own speech actions are heard. Although it is externally manifested, speech has no direct effect on our physical interactions with the world. Its symbolic ability not only provides the power of auxiliary actions, but also includes other speakers in the interaction. 5 SIMULATING ABSTRACT AUTOMATA The example in Figure 8 gives the essence of simulating a finite state automaton with a production system or its neural net equivalent . It illustrates the transition function of an automaton; the new state and output are a function of the previous state and input. Thus a neural net can simulate a finite state automaton, so long as it has additional, auxiliary actions. A Thring machine is a finite state automaton controller plus an unbounded memory. A neural net could simulate a 'lUring machine in two ways, and both ways have been demonstrated with production system implementations-equivalent to neural nets----(;alled "multiple context learning systems"', briefly explained in section 6. The first Thring machine simulation 7 has the system simulate only the finite state controller, but is able to use an unbounded external memory fSee John Andreae's and his colleagues' work4 ,5,6,7,8,9,12 ,16 513 Figure 9: Multiple context learning system implementation as multiple neural nets. Each:3 layer net has the simplified form presented above, with a number of elaborations such as extra connections for goal-seeking by forward and backward chaining . Output channels from the real world, much like the paper of Turing's original work 19 . The second simnlat.ion[" 1'2 embeds the memory in the multiple context learning system, along with a counter for accessing this simulated memory. Both learn all the productions-equivalent to learning output unit weights-required for the simulations. The second is able to add internal memory as required, up to a limit dependent on the size of the network (which can easily be large enough to allow 70 years of computation!). The second could also employ external memory as the first did. Briefly, the second simulation comprised multiple sequence predictors which predicted auxiliary actions for remembering the state of the controller, and the current memory position . The memory element is updated by relearning the production representing that element; the precondition is the address and the production action the stored item. 6 MULTIPLE SYSTEMS FORM ASSOCIATION AREAS A multiple context learning system is production system version of a multiple neural net, although a simple version has been implemented as a simulated net 4 ?20 . It effectively comprises several nets--or "association" areas-which may have outputs and inputs in common, as indicated in Figure 9. Hidden unit weights are specified by templates ; one for each net . A template gives the inputs to have a zero weight for the hidden units of a net and the inputs to have a weight of unity. Delayed and latched inputs are also available . The actual outputs are selected from the combined predictions of the nets in a winner-take-all fashion . I see the design for real neural nets, say as controllers for real robots, requiring a large degree of predetermined connectivity. A robot controller could not be one three layer net wit.h every input connected to every hidden unit in turn connected to every output. There will need to be some connectivity constraints so the net reflects the functional specialization in the control requirements 9 . The multiple context learning system has all the hidden layer connections predetermined, but allows output connections to be learned. This avoids the "credit assignment" problem and therefore also the need for learning algorithms such as Boltzmann learning and back-propagation. However, as the multiple context learning system has auxiliary actions, and delayed and latched inputs, it does not lack computational power. Future work in this area should investigate , for example, the ability of different kinds of nets to learn auxiliary act.ions. This may be difficult as symbolic actions may not be provided in training inputs and output.s . 9 For example a controller for a robot body would have to deal with vision, manipulation, motion, etc. 514 7 CONCLUSION This paper has presented a sImplified three layer connectionist model, with fixed weights for hidden units, delays and latches for inputs, sequence prediction ability, auxiliary "state" actions, and the ability to use internal and external memory. The result is able to learn to simulate a Turing machine. Simple neural-like systems do not lack computational power. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work is supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada. REFERENCES 1. Rumelhart,D.E. and McClelland,J .L . Parallel distributed processing. Volumes 1 and 2. MIT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Press. (1986) Feldman,J .A. and Ballard,D.H. Connectionist models and their properties. Cognitive Science 6, pp.205-254. (1982) Fahlman,S .E. Three Flavors of Parallelism. Proc.4th Nat.Conf. CSCSI/SCSEIO, Saskatoon. (1982) Andreae,J .H. Thinking with the teachable machine. Academic Press. (1977) Andreae,J.H. Man-Machine Studies Progress Reports UC-DSE/1-28. Dept Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Univ. Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. editor. (1972-87) (Also available from NTIS, 5285 Port Royal Rd, Springfield, VA 22161) Andreae,J .H. and Andreae,P.M. Machine learning with a multiple context. Proc.9th Int.Conf.on Cybernetics and Society. Denver. October. pp.734-9. (1979) Andreae,J.H. and Cleary,J.G. A new mechanism for a brain. Int.J.Man-Machine Studies 8(1): pp.89-1l9. (1976) Andreae,P.M. and Andreae,J.H. A teachable machine in the real world. Int.J.Man-Machine Studies 10: pp.301-12. (1978) MacDonald,B.A. and Andreae,J .H. The competence of a multiple context learning system. Int.J.Gen.Systems 7: pp.123-37. (1981) Rumelhart,D.E., Hinton,G.E. and McClelland,J .L. A general framework for parallel distributed processing. chapter 2 in Rumelhart and McClelland l , pp.45-76. (1986) Hinton,G.E. and Sejnowski,T.L. Learning and relearning in Boltzmann machines . chapter 7 in Rumelhart and McClelland l , pp.282-317. (1986) MacDonald,B.A. Designing teachable robots. PhD thesis, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. (1984) Rumelhart,D.E., Hinton,G.E. and Williams,R.J. Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation. chapter 8 in Rumelhart and McClelland l , pp.318-362. (1986) Ackley,D.H., Hinton,G.E. and Sejnowski,T.J. A Learning Algorithm for Boltzmann Machines. Cognitive Science 9, pp.147-169. (1985) Nilsson,N.J. Principles of Artificial Intelligence. Tioga. (1980) Andreae,J .H. and MacDonald,B~_A. Expert control for a robot body. Research Report 87/286/34 Dept. of Computer Science, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada, T2N-1N4. (1987) Witten,I.H. Approximate, non-deterministic modelling of behaviour sequences. Int. 1. General Systems, vol. 5 pp.1-12 . (1979) Rumelhart,D.E.,Smolensky,P.,McClelland,J.L. and Hinton,G .E. Schemata and Sequential thought Processes in PDP Models. chapter 14, vol 2 in Rumelhart and McClelland 1 . pp.757. (1986) Thring,A.M. On computable numbers, with an application to the entscheidungsproblem. Proc. London Math. Soc. vol 42(3). pp. 230-65. (1936) Dowd,R.B. A digital simulation of mew-brain. Report no. UC-DSE/10 5 . pp.25-46. (1977)
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Networks for the Separation of Sources that are Superimposed and Delayed John C. Platt Federico Faggin Synaptics, Inc. 2860 Zanker Road, Suite 206 San Jose, CA 95134 ABSTRACT We have created new networks to unmix signals which have been mixed either with time delays or via filtering. We first show that a subset of the Herault-Jutten learning rules fulfills a principle of minimum output power. We then apply this principle to extensions of the Herault-Jutten network which have delays in the feedback path. Our networks perform well on real speech and music signals that have been mixed using time delays or filtering. 1 INTRODUCTION Recently, there has been much interest in neural architectures to solve the "blind separation of signals" problem (Herault & Jutten, 1986) (Vittoz & Arreguit, 1989). The separation is called "blind," because nothing is assumed known about the frequency or phase of the signals. A concrete example of blind separation of sources is when the pure signals are sounds generated in a room and the mixed signals are the output of some microphones. The mixture process would model the delay of the sound to each microphone, and the mixing of the sounds at each microphone. The inputs to the neural network would be the microphone outputs, and the neural network would try to produce the pure signals. The mixing process can take on different mathematical forms in different situations. To express these forms, we denote the pure signal i as Pi, the mixed signal i as Ii (which is the ith input to the network), and the output signal i as Oi. The simplest form to unmix is linear superposition: lj(t) = Pi(t) 730 + L Mjj(t)Pj(t). j# (1) Networks for the Separation of Sources that are Superimposed and Delayed A more realistic, but more difficult form to unmix is superposition with single delays: l i (f) = Pi(t) + L Mij(t)Pj(t j Djj(t)). (2) i-i Finally, a rather general mixing process would be superposition with causal filtering: li(t) = Pi(t) +L L ji-i k M ijk(t)Pj (t - 15 k). (3) Blind separation is interesting for many different reasons . The network must adapt on-line and without a supervisor , which is a challenging type of learning. One could imagine using a blind separation network to clean up an input to a speech understanding system. (Juttell & Herault, 1991) uses a blind separation network to deskew images . Finally, researchers have implemented blind separation networks using analog VLSI to yield systems which are capable of performing the separation of sources in real time (Vittoz & Arreguit, 1990) (Cohen, et. al., 1992). 1.1 Previous Work Interest in adaptive systems which perform noise cancellation dates back to the 1960s and 1970s (Widrow, et. al., 1975). The first neural network to un mix on-line a linear superposition of sources was (Herault & Jutten, 1986). Further work on off-line blind separation was performed by (Cardoso, 1989). Recently, a network to unmix filtered signals was proposed in (Jutten, et. al., 1991), independently of this paper . 2 PRINCIPLE OF MINIMUM OUTPUT POWER In this section, we apply the mathematics of noise-cancelling networks (Widrow , et . al. , 1975) to the network in (Herault & Jutten, 1986) in order to generalize to new networks that can handle delays in the mixing process . 2.1 Noise-cancellation Networks A noise-cancellation network tries to purify a signal which is corrupted by filtered noise (Widrow, et. al. , 1975) . The network has access to the isolated noise signal. The interference equation is 1(t) = P(t) + L MjN(t - 8j ). (4) j The adaptive filter inverts the interference equation , to yield an output: O(t) = 1(t) - L C N(t - 8 j j ). (5) j The adaptation of a noise-cancellation network relies on an elegant notion : if a signal is impure, it will have a higher power than a pure signal, because the noise power adds to the signal power. The true pure signal has the lowest power. This minimum output power principle is used to determine adaptation laws for noisecancellation networks. Specifically, at any time t , Cj is adjusted by taking a step that minimizes 0(t)2 731 732 Platt and Faggin Figure 1: The network described in (Herault & Jutten, 1986). The dashed arrows represent adaptation. 2.2 The Herault-Jutten Network The Herault-Jutten network (see Figure 1) uses a purely additive model of interference. The interference is modeled by Ii = Pi + LMijPj. (6) j ,#-i Notice the Herault-Jutten network solves a more general problem than previous noise-cancellation networks: the Herault-Jutten network has no access to any pure signal. In (Herault & Jutten, 1986), the authors also propose inverting the interference model: (7) OJ = Ii GijOj . L: j ,#-i The Herault-Jutten network can be understood intuitively by assuming that the network has already adapted so that the outputs are the pure signals (OJ = Pj ). Each connection Gij subtracts just the right amount of the pure signal Pj from the input Ii to yield the pure signal Pi. So, the Herault-J utten network will produce pure signals if the Gij = M ij . In (Herault & Jutten, 1986), the authors propose a very general adaptation rule for the Gij: (8) for some non-linear functions converges for f(x) = x 3 . f and g. (Sorouchyari, 1991) proves that the network In this paper, we propose that the same elegant minimization principle that governs the noise-cancellation networks can be used to justify a subset of Herault-Jutten Networks for the Separation of Sources that are Superimposed and Delayed learning algorithms. Let g(x) = x and f(x) be a derivative of some convex function h(x), with a minimum at x O. In this case, each output of the Hcrault-Jutten network independently minimizes a function h(x) . = = A Herault-Jutten network can be made by setting h(x) x 2 . Unfortunately, this network will not converge, because the update rules for two connections G ij and Gji are identical: (9) Under this condition, the two parameters Gij and Gji will track one another and not converge to the correct answer. Therefore, a non-linear adaptation rule is needed to break the symmetry between the outputs. The next two sections of the paper describe how the minimum output power principle can be applied to generalizations of the Herault-J utten architecture. 3 NETWORK FOR UNMIXING DELAYED SIGNALS Figure 2: Our network for unmixing signals mixed with single delays. The adjustable delay in the feedback path avoids the degeneracy in the learning rule. The dashed arrows represent adaptation: the source of the arrow is the source of the error used by gradient descent. Our new network is an extension of the Herault-Jutten network (see Figure 2). We assume that the interference is delayed by a certain amount: Ii(t) = Pi(t) + L: Mij Pj (t - Djj (t?). (10) i:j:.j Compare this to equation (6): our network can handle delayed interference, while the Herault-Jutten network cannot. We introduce an adjustable delay in the feedback path in order to cancel the delay of the interference: Oi(t) = I(t) - L: GijOj(t i:j:.j djj(t)). (11) 733 734 Platt and Faggin We apply the minimum output power principle to adapt the mixing coefficients Gij and the delays dij : ~Gij(t) = aOi(t)Oj(t - dij(t)), (12) dO ? ~dij(t) = -f3Gij (t)Oj(t) d/ (t - djj(t)) . By introducing a delay in the feedback, we prevent degeneracy in the learning rule, hence we can use a quadratic power to adjust the coefficients . .... 0 1-0 .... <1)0 ~ 0 0 . 0.. -0 .... ~S ~o > <"<:t <1)b .? .... ..... tv) Ob I 65 .... \0 b .... 0 1 2 3 4 Time (sec) 5 6 7 Figure 3: The results of the network applied to a speech/music superposition. These curves are short-time averages of the power of signals. The upper curve shows the power of the pure speech signal. The lower curve shows the power of the difference between the speech output of the network, and the pure speech signal. The gap between the curves is the amount that the network attenuates the interference between the music and speech: the adaptation of the network tries to drive the lower curve to zero. As you can see, the network quickly isolates the pure speech signal. For a test of our network, we took two signals, one speech and one music, and mixed them together via software to form two new signals: the first being speech plus a delayed, attenuated music; the second being music plus delayed, attenuated speech. Figure 3 shows the results of our network applied to these two signals: the interference was attenuated by approximately 22 dB. One output of the network sounds like speech, with superimposed music which quickly fades away. The other output of the network sounds like music, with a superimposed speech signal which quickly fades away. Our network can also be extended to more than two sources, like the Herault-Jutten network. If the network tries to separate S sources, it requires S non-identical Networks for the Separation of Sources that are Superimposed and Delayed inputs . Each output connects to one input, and a delayed version of each of the other outputs, for a total of 28(S - 1) adaptive coefficients. 4 NETWORK FOR UNMIXING FILTERED SIGNALS Figure 4: A network to unrnix signals that have been mixed via filtering. The filters in the feedback path are adjusted to independently minimize the power h( Oi) of each output. For the mixing process that involves filtering, Ii(t) = Pi(t) +L j-:ti L MijkPj(t - bk), (13) k we put filters in the feedback path of each output: Oi(t) = li(t) - L L CjkOj(t j -:ti 15k), (14) k (Jutten, et. al., 1991) also independently developed this architecture. We can use the principle of minimum output power to develop a learning rule for this architecture: (15) for some convex function h. (Jutten, et. al., 1991) suggests using an adaptation rule that is equivalent to choosing h(x) = X4. Interestingly, neither the choice of h( x) = x 2 nor h( x) = X4 converges to the correct solution. For both h(x) = x 2 and h(x) = x4, if the coefficients start at the correct solution, they stay there. However, if the coefficients start at zero, they converge to a solution that is only roughly correct (see Figure 5). These experiments show 735 736 Platt and Faggin ... = Absolute Value o =SquSIe = Fourth Power o ,.....; 90~~1---+2--~3---4+-~5---+6--~7---+8--~9 coefficient number Figure 5: The coefficients for one filter in the feedback path of the network. The weights were initialized t.o zero. Two different speech/music mixtures were applied to the network. The solid line indicates the correct solution for the coefficients. When minimizing either h(x) x 2 or h(x) x\ the network converges to an incorrect solution. Minimizing h(x) Ixl seems to work well . = = = that the learning algorithm has multiple stable states. Experimentally, the spurious stable states seem to perform roughly as well as the true answer. To account for these multiple stable states, we came up with a conjecture: that the different minimizations performed by each output fought against one another and created the multiple stable states. Optimization theory suggests using an exact penalty method to avoid fighting between multiple terms in a single optimization criteria (Gill, 1981). The exact penalty method minimizes a function h(x) that has a non-zero derivative for x close to O. We tried a simple exact penalty method of h(x) = Ix\' and it empirically converged to the correct solution (see Figure 5). The adaptation rule is then (16) In this case, the non-linearity of the adaptation rule seems to be important for the network to converge to the true answer. For a speech/music mixture, we achieved a signal-to-noise ratio of 20 dB using the update rule (16). 5 FUTURE WORK The networks described in the last two sections were found to converge empirically. In the future, proving conditions for convergence would be useful. There are some known pathological cases which cause these networks not to converge. For example, using white noise as the pure signals for the network in section 3 causes it to fail, because there is no sensible way for the network to change the delays. Networks for the Separation of Sources that are Superimposed and Delayed More exploration of the choice of optimization function needs to be performed in the future. The work in section 4 is just a first step which illustrates the possible usefulness of the absolute value function. Another avenue of future work is to try to express the blind separation problem as a global optimization problem, perhaps by trying to minimize the mutual information between the outputs. (Feinstein, Becker, personal communication) 6 CONCLUSIONS We have found that the minimum output power principle can generate a subset of the Herault-Jutten network learning rules. We use this principle to adapt extensions of the Herault-Jutten network, which have delays in the feedback path. These new networks unmix signals which have been mixed with single delays or via filtering. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Kannan Parthasarathy for his assistance in some of the experiments. We would also like to thank David Feinstein, Sue Becker, and David Mackay for useful discussions. References Cardoso, J. F., (1989) "Blind Identification of Independent Components," Proceedings of the Workshop 011 Higher-Order Spectral Analysis, Vail, Colorado, pp. 157160, (1989). Cohen, M. H., Pouliquen, P.O., Andreou, A. G., (1992) "Analog VLSI Implementation of an Auto-Adaptive Network for Real-Time Separation of Independent Signals," Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 4, Morgan-Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA. Gill, P. E., Murray, W., Wright, M. H., (1981) Practical Optimization, Academic Press, London. Herault, J., J utten, C., (1986) "Space or Time Adaptive Signal Processing by Neural Network Models," Neural Networks for Computing, AlP Conference Proceedings 151, pp. 207-211, Snowbird, Utah. Jutten, C., Thi, L. N., Dijkstra, E., Vittoz, E., Caelen, J., (1991) "Blind Separation of Sources: an Algorithm for Separation of Convolutive Mixtures," Proc. Inti. Workshop on High Order Statistics, Chamrousse France, July 1991. Jutten, C., Herault, J., (1991) "Blind Separation of Sources, part I: An Adaptive Algorithm Based on Neuromimetic Architecture," Signal Processing, vol. 24, pp. 110. Sorouchyari, E., (1991) "Blind Separation of Sources, Part III: Stability analysis," Signal Processing, vol. 24, pp. 21-29. Vittoz, E. A., Arreguit, X., (1989) "CMOS Integration of Herault-Jutten Cells for Separation of Sources," Proc. Workshop on Analog VLSI and Neural Systems, Portland, Oregon, May 1989. Widrow, B., Glover, J., McCool, J., Kaunitz, J., Williams, C., Hearn, R., Zeidler, J., Dong, E., Goodlin, R., (1975) "Adaptive Noise Cancelling: Principles and Applications," Proc. IEEE, vol. 63, no. 12, pp. 1692-1716. 737 PART XI IMPLEMENTATION
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Non-strongly-convex smooth stochastic approximation with convergence rate O(1/n) Eric Moulines LTCI Telecom ParisTech, Paris, France [email protected] Francis Bach INRIA - Sierra Project-team Ecole Normale Sup?erieure, Paris, France [email protected] Abstract We consider the stochastic approximation problem where a convex function has to be minimized, given only the knowledge of unbiased estimates of its gradients at certain points, a framework which includes machine learning methods based on the minimization of the empirical risk. We focus on problems without strong convexity, for which all previously known algorithms achieve a convergence rate ? for function values of O(1/ n) after n iterations. We consider and analyze two algorithms that achieve a rate of O(1/n) for classical supervised learning problems. For least-squares regression, we show that averaged stochastic gradient descent with constant step-size achieves the desired rate. For logistic regression, this is achieved by a simple novel stochastic gradient algorithm that (a) constructs successive local quadratic approximations of the loss functions, while (b) preserving the same running-time complexity as stochastic gradient descent. For these algorithms, we provide a non-asymptotic analysis of the generalization error (in expectation, and also in high probability for least-squares), and run extensive experiments showing that they often outperform existing approaches. 1 Introduction Large-scale machine learning problems are becoming ubiquitous in many areas of science and engineering. Faced with large amounts of data, practitioners typically prefer algorithms that process each observation only once, or a few times. Stochastic approximation algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants, although introduced more than sixty years ago [1], still remain the most widely used and studied method in this context (see, e.g., [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]). We convex functions f , defined on a Euclidean space F , given by f (?) =  consider minimizing  E ?(y, h?, xi) , where (x, y) ? F ? R denotes the data and ? denotes a loss function that is convex with respect to the second variable. This includes logistic and least-squares regression. In the stochastic approximation framework, independent and identically distributed pairs (xn , yn ) are observed sequentially and the predictor defined by ? is updated after each pair is seen. We partially understand the properties of f that affect the problem difficulty. Strong convexity (i.e., when f is twice differentiable, a uniform strictly positive lower-bound ? on Hessians of f ) is a key property. Indeed, after n observations and with the proper step-sizes, averaged SGD ? achieves the rate of O(1/?n) in the strongly-convex case [5, 4], while it achieves only O(1/ n) in the nonstrongly-convex case [5], with matching lower-bounds [8]. The main issue with strong convexity is that typical machine learning problems are high-dimensional and have correlated variables so that ? the strong convexity constant ? is zero or very close to zero, and in any case smaller than O(1/ n). This then makes the non-strongly convex methods better. In this paper, we aim at obtaining algorithms that may deal with arbitrarily small strong-convexity constants, but still achieve a rate of O(1/n). 1 Smoothness plays a central role in the context of deterministic optimization. The known convergence rates for smooth optimization are better than for non-smooth optimization (e.g., see [9]). However, for stochastic optimization the use of smoothness only?leads to improvements on constants (e.g., see [10]) but not on the rate itself, which remains O(1/ n) for non-strongly-convex problems. We show that for the square loss and for the logistic loss, we may use the smoothness of the loss and obtain algorithms that have a convergence rate of O(1/n) without any strong convexity assumptions. More precisely, for least-squares regression, we show in Section 2 that averaged stochastic gradient descent with constant step-size achieves the desired rate. For logistic regression this is achieved by a novel stochastic gradient algorithm that (a) constructs successive local quadratic approximations of the loss functions, while (b) preserving the same running-time complexity as stochastic gradient descent (see Section 3). For these algorithms, we provide a non-asymptotic analysis of their generalization error (in expectation, and also in high probability for least-squares), and run extensive experiments on standard machine learning benchmarks showing in Section 4 that they often outperform existing approaches. 2 Constant-step-size least-mean-square algorithm In this section, we consider stochastic approximation for least-squares regression, where SGD is often referred to as the least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm. The novelty of our convergence result is the use of the constant step-size with averaging, which was already considered by [11], but now with an explicit non-asymptotic rate O(1/n) without any dependence on the lowest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix. 2.1 Convergence in expectation We make the following assumptions: (A1) F is a d-dimensional Euclidean space, with d > 1. (A2) The observations (xn , zn ) ? F ? F are independent and identically distributed. (A3) Ekxn k2 and Ekzn k2 are finite. Denote by H = E(xn ? xn ) the covariance operator from F to F . Without loss of generality, H is assumed invertible (by projecting onto the minimal subspace where xn lies almost surely). However, its eigenvalues may be arbitrarily small.   (A4) The global minimum of f (?) = (1/2)E h?, xn i2 ? 2h?, zn i  is attained at a certain ?? ? F . We denote by ? n = zn ? h?? , xn ixn the residual. We have E ?n = 0, but in general, it is not true that E ?n xn = 0 (unless the model is well-specified). (A5) We study the stochastic gradient (a.k.a. least mean square) recursion defined as ?n = ?n?1 ? ?(h?n?1 , xn ixn ? zn ) = (I ? ?xn ? xn )?n?1 + ?zn , (1) P started from ?0 ? F . We also consider the averaged iterates ??n = (n + 1)?1 nk=0 ?k .    (A6) There exists R > 0 and ? > 0 such that E ?n ? ?n 4 ? 2 H and E kxn k2 xn ? xn 4 R2 H, where 4 denotes the the order between self-adjoint operators, i.e., A 4 B if and only if B ? A is positive semi-definite. Discussion of assumptions. Assumptions (A1-5) are standard in stochastic approximation (see, e.g., [12, 6]). Note that for least-squares problems, zn is of the form yn xn , where yn ? R is the response to be predicted as a linear function of xn . We consider a slightly more general case than least-squares because we will need it for the quadratic approximation of the logistic loss in Section 3.1. Note that in assumption (A4), we do not assume that the model is well-specified. Assumption (A6) is true for least-square regression bounded data, since, if   with almost surely kxn k2 6 R2 almost surely, then E kxn k2 xn ? xn 4 E R2 xn ? xn = R2 H; a similar inequality holds for the output variables yn . Moreover, it also holds for data with infinite supports, such as Gaussians or mixtures of Gaussians (where all covariance matrices of the mixture components are lower and upper bounded by a constant times the same matrix). Note that the finite-dimensionality assumption could be relaxed, but this would require notions similar to degrees of freedom [13], which is outside of the scope of this paper.   The goal of this section is to provide a non-asymptotic bound on the expectation E f (??n ) ? f (?? ) , that (a) does not depend on the smallest non-zero eigenvalue of H (which could be arbitrarily small) and (b) still scales as O(1/n). 2 Theorem 1 Assume (A1-6). For any constant step-size ? < 1/R2 , we have ? 2    1 ? d 1 ? p . + Rk?0 ? ?? k p E f (?n?1 ) ? f (?? ) 6 2n 1 ? ?R2 ?R2 h ? i2   When ? = 1/(4R2 ), we obtain E f (??n?1 ) ? f (?? ) 6 n2 ? d + Rk?0 ? ?? k . (2) Proof technique. We adapt and extend a proof technique from [14] which is based on nonasymptotic expansions in powers of ?. We also use a result from [2] which studied the recursion in Eq. (1), with xn ? xn replaced by its expectation H. See [15] for details. Optimality of bounds. Our bound in Eq. (2) leads to a rate of O(1/n), which is known to be optimal for least-squares regression (i.e., under reasonable assumptions, no algorithm, even more complex than averaged SGD can have a better dependence in n) [16]. The term ? 2 d/n is also unimprovable. Initial conditions. If ? is small, then the initial condition is forgotten more slowly. Note that with additional strong convexity assumptions, the initial condition would be forgotten faster (exponentially fast without averaging), which is one of the traditional uses of constant-step-size LMS [17]. Specificity of constant step-sizes. The non-averaged iterate sequence (?n ) is a homogeneous Markov chain; under appropriate technical conditions, this Markov chain has a unique stationary (invariant) distribution and the sequence of iterates (?n ) converges in distribution to this invariant distribution; see [18, Chapter 17]. Denote by ?? the invariant distribution. Assuming that the Markov Chain is Harris-recurrent, the ergodic theorem for Harris Markov chain shows that Pn?1 def R ??? (d?), which is the mean of the ??n?1 = n?1 k=0 ?k converges almost-surely to ??? = stationary distribution. Taking the expectation on both side of Eq. (1), we get E[?n ] ? ?? = (I ? ?H)(E[?n?1 ] ? ?? ), which shows, using that limn?? E[?n ] = ??? that H ??? = H?? and therefore ??? = ?? since H is invertible. Under slightly stronger assumptions, it can be shown that P limn?? nE[(??n ? ?? )2 ] = Var? (?0 ) + 2 ? Cov? (?0 , ?k ) , ? k=1 ? where Cov?? (?0 , ?k ) denotes the covariance of ?0 and ?k when the Markov chain is started from stationarity. This implies that limn?? nE[f (??n ) ? f (?? )] has a finite limit. Therefore, this interpretation explains why the averaging produces a sequence of estimators which converges to the solution ?? pointwise, and that the rate of convergence of E[f (?n )?f (?? )] is of order O(1/n). Note that (a) our result is stronger since it is independent of the lowest eigenvalue of H, and (b) for other losses than quadratic, the same properties hold except that the mean under the stationary distribution does not coincide with ?? and its distance to ?? is typically of order ? 2 (see Section 3). 2.2 Convergence in higher orders We are now going to consider an extra assumption in order to bound the p-th moment of the excess risk and then get a high-probability bound. Let p be a real number greater than 1. (A7) There exists R > 0, ? > 0 and ? > ? > 0 such that, for all n > 1, kxn k2 6 R2 a.s., and   Ek?n kp 6 ? p Rp and E ?n ? ?n 4 ? 2 H, (3)  2 (4) ?z ? F , Ehz, xn i4 6 ? Ehz, xn i2 = ?hz, Hzi2 . The last condition in Eq. (4) says that the kurtosis of the projection of the covariates xn on any direction z ? F is bounded. Note that computing the constant ? happens to be equivalent to the optimization problem solved by the FastICA algorithm [19], which thus provides an estimate of ?. In Table 1, we provide such an estimate for the non-sparse datasets which we have used in experiments, while we consider only directions z along the axes for high-dimensional sparse datasets. For these datasets where a given variable is equal to zero except for a few observations, ? is typically quite large. Adapting and analyzing normalized LMS techniques [20] to this set-up is likely to improve the theoretical robustness of the algorithm (but note that results in expectation from Theorem 1 do not use ?). The next theorem provides a bound for the p-th moment of the excess risk. Theorem 2 Assume (A1-7). For any real p > 1, and for a step-size ? 6 1/(12p?R2), we have: r  2 ? p 1/p p 2 ? E f (?n?1 ) ? f (?? ) 6 7? d + Rk?0 ? ?? k 3 + . (5) 2n ?pR2 3 p 1/p For ? = 1/(12p?R2), we get: E f (??n?1 ) ? f (?? ) 6 p 2n ? 2 ? 7? d + 6 ?Rk?0 ? ?? k . Note that to control the p-th order moment, a smaller step-size is needed, which scales as 1/p. We 2 can now provide a high-probability bound; the tails decay polynomially as 1/(n? 12??R ) and the smaller the step-size ?, the lighter the tails. Corollary 1 For any step-size such that ? 6 1/(12?R2), any ? ? (0, 1), ? ? 2   ?  7? d + Rk?0 ? ?? k( 3 + 24?) 1 ? P f (?n?1 ) ? f (?? ) > 12??R2 6?. 24??R2 n? (6) 3 Beyond least-squares: M-estimation In Section 2, we have shown that for least-squares regression, averaged SGD achieves a convergence rate of O(1/n) with no assumption regarding strong convexity. For all losses, with a constant stepsize ?, the stationary distribution ?? corresponding to the homogeneous Markov chain (?n ) does R always satisfy f ? (?)?? (d?) = 0, where f is Rthe generalization error. When the gradient f ? is linear ? (i.e., f is quadratic), R then this implies that f ( ??? (d?)) = 0, i.e., the averaged recursion ?converges ? pathwise to ?? = ??? (d?) which coincides withR the optimal value ?? (defined through f (?? ) = 0). R When the gradient f ? is no longer linear, then f ? (?)?? (d?) 6= f ? ( ??? (d?)). Therefore, for general M -estimation problems we should expect that the averaged sequence still converges at rate O(1/n) to the mean of the stationary distribution ??? , but not to the optimal predictor ?? . Typically, the average distance between ?n and ?? is of order ? (see Section 4 and [21]), while for the averaged iterates that converge pointwise to ??? , it is of order ? 2 for strongly convex problems under some additional smoothness conditions on the loss functions (these are satisfied, for example, by the logistic loss [22]). Since quadratic functions may be optimized with rate O(1/n) under weak conditions, we are going to use a quadratic approximation around a well chosen support point, which shares some similarity with the Newton procedure (however, with a non trivial adaptation to the stochastic approximation framework). The Newton step for f around a certain point ?? is equivalent to minimizing a quadratic ? i.e., g(?) = f (?) ? + hf ? (?), ? ? ? ?i ? + 1 h? ? ?, ? f ?? (?)(? ? ? ?)i. ? If fn (?) def surrogate g of f around ?, = 2 1 ? ? ? f ?? (?)(?? ? ? the ? ? h?? ?, ?)i; ?(yn , h?, xn i), then g(?) = Egn (?), with gn (?) = f (?)+hf ( ?), ?? ?i+ n n 2 Newton step may thus be solved approximately with stochastic approximation (here constant-step size LMS), with the following recursion:   ? + f ?? (?)(? ? n?1 ? ?) ? . ?n = ?n?1 ? ?g ? (?n?1 ) = ?n?1 ? ? f ? (?) (7) n n n ? A This is equivalent to replacing the gradient by its first-order approximation around ?. crucial point is that for machine learning scenarios where fn is a loss associated to a single data point, its complexity is only twice the complexity of a regular stochastic approximation step, since, with fn (?) = ?(yn , hxn , ?i), fn?? (?) is a rank-one matrix. fn? (?n?1 ) Choice of support points for quadratic approximation. An important aspect is the choice of the ? In this paper, we consider two strategies: support point ?. ? ? Two-step procedure: for convex losses, averaged ? SGD with a step-size decaying at O(1/ n) achieves a rate (up to logarithmic terms) of O(1/ n) [5, 6]. We may thus use it to obtain a first decent estimate. The two-stage procedure is as follows (and uses 2n observations): n steps of ? ? and then averaged LMS for the averaged SGD with constant step size ? ? 1/ n to obtain ?, ? Newton step around ?. As shown below, this algorithm achieves the rate O(1/n) for logistic regression. However, it is not the most efficient in practice. ? Support point = current average iterate: we simply consider the current averaged iterate ??n?1 ? leading to the recursion: as the support point ?,   ?n = ?n?1 ? ? fn? (??n?1 ) + fn?? (??n?1 )(?n?1 ? ??n?1 ) . (8) Although this algorithm has shown to be the most efficient in practice (see Section 4) we currently have no proof of convergence. Given that the behavior of the algorithms does not change much when the support point is updated less frequently than each iteration, there may be some connections to two-time-scale algorithms (see, e.g., [23]). In Section 4, we also consider several other strategies based on doubling tricks. 4 Interestingly, for non-quadratic functions, our algorithm imposes a new bias (by replacing the true gradient by an approximation which is only valid close to ??n?1 ) in order to reach faster convergence (due to the linearity of the underlying gradients). Relationship with one-step-estimators. One-step estimators (see, e.g., [24]) typically take any estimator with O(1/n)-convergence rate, and make a full Newton step to obtain an efficient estimator (i.e., one that achieves the Cramer-Rao lower bound). Although our novel algorithm is largely inspired by one-step estimators, our situation is slightly different since our first estimator has only ? convergence rate O(1/ n) and is estimated on different observations. 3.1 Self-concordance and logistic regression We make the following assumptions: (B1) F is a d-dimensional Euclidean space, with d > 1. (B2) The observations (xn , yn ) ? F ? {?1, 1} are independent and identically distributed.   (B3) We consider f (?) = E ?(yn , hxn , ?i) , with the following assumption on the loss function ? (whenever we take derivatives of ?, this will be with respect to the second variable): ?(y, y?) ? {?1, 1} ? R, ?? (y, y?) 6 1, ??? (y, y?) 6 1/4, |???? (y, y?)| 6 ??? (y, y?). We denote by ?? a global minimizer of f , which we thus assume to exist, and we denote by H = f ?? (?? ) the Hessian operator at a global optimum ?? . (B4) We assume that there exists R > 0, ? > 0 and ? > 0 such that kxn k2 6 R2 almost surely, and     E xn ? xn 4 ?E ??? (yn , h?? , xn i)xn ? xn = ?H, (9)     ?? 2 (10) ?z ? F , ? ? F , E ? (yn , h?, xn i)2 hz, xn i4 6 ? E ??? (yn , h?, xn i)hz, xn i2 . Assumption (B3) is satisfied for the logistic loss and extends to all generalized linear models (see more details in [22]), and the relationship between the third derivative and second derivative of the loss ? is often referred to as self-concordance (see [9, 25] and references therein). Note moreover that we must have ? > 4 and ? > 1. A loose upper bound for ? is 1/ inf n ??? (yn , h?? , xn i) but in practice, it is typically much smaller (see Table 1). The condition in Eq. (10) is hard to check because it is uniform in ?. With a slightly more complex proof, we could restrict ? to be close to ?? ; with such constraints, the value of ? we have found is close to the one from Section 2.2 (i.e., without the terms in ??? (yn , h?, xn i)). Theorem 3 Assume (B1-4), and consider the vector ?n obtained as follows: (a) perform n steps of ? averaged stochastic gradient descent with constant step size 1/2R2 n, to get ??n , and (b) perform n step of averaged LMS with constant step-size 1/R2 for the quadratic approximation of f around ??n . If n > (19 + 9Rk?0 ? ?? k)4 , then ?3/2 ?3 d (16Rk?0 ? ?? k + 19)4 . (11) Ef (?n ) ? f (?? ) 6 n We get an O(1/n) convergence rate without assuming strong convexity, even locally, thus improving on results from [22] where the the rate is proportional to 1/(n?min(H)). The proof relies on selfconcordance properties and the sharp analysis of the Newton step (see [15] for details). 4 Experiments 4.1 Synthetic data Least-mean-square algorithm. We consider normally distributed inputs, with covariance matrix H that has random eigenvectors and eigenvalues 1/k, k = 1, . . . , d. The outputs are generated from a linear function with homoscedastic noise with unit signal to noise-ratio. We consider d = 20 and the?least-mean-square algorithm with several settings of the step size ?n , constant or proportional to 1/ n. Here R2 denotes the average radius of the data, i.e., R2 = tr H. In the left plot of Figure 1, we show the results, averaged over 10 replications. Without averaging, the algorithm with constant step-size does not converge pointwise (it oscillates), and its average excess risk decays as a linear function of ? (indeed, the gap between each values of the constant step-size is close to log10 (4), which corresponds to a linear function in ?). 5 0 synthetic square synthetic logistic ? 1 synthetic logistic ? 2 ?2 2 ?3 ?4 ?5 0 1/2R 2 1/8R 2 1/32R 2 1/2 1/2R n 2 4 log (n) 6 0 log10[f(?)?f(?*)] ?1 log10[f(?)?f(?*)] log10[f(?)?f(?*)] 0 ?1 ?2 2 ?3 ?4 ?5 0 1/2R 2 1/8R 2 1/32R 2 1/2 1/2R n 2 4 log (n) 10 10 6 ?1 ?2 ?3 ?4 ?5 0 p every 2 every iter. 2?step 2?step?dbl. 2 4 log (n) 6 10 Figure 1: Synthetic data. Left: least-squares regression. Middle: logistic regression with averaged SGD with various step-sizes, averaged (plain) and non-averaged (dashed). Right: various Newtonbased schemes for the same logistic regression problem. Best seen in color; see text for details. With averaging, the algorithm with constant step-size does converge at rate O(1/n), and for all values of the constant ?, the rate is actually the same. Moreover (although it is not shown in the plots), the standard deviation is much lower. ? With ? decaying step-size ?n = 1/(2R2 n) and without averaging, the convergence rate is O(1/ n), and improves to O(1/n) with averaging. Logistic regression. We consider the same input data as for least-squares, but now generates outputs from the logistic probabilistic model. We compare several algorithms and display the results in Figure 1 (middle and right plots). On the middle plot, we consider SGD; without averaging, the algorithm with constant step-size does not converge and its average excess risk reaches a constant value which is a linear function of ? (indeed, the gap between each values of the constant step-size is close to log10 (4)). With averaging, the algorithm does converge, but as opposed to least-squares, to a point which is not the optimal solution, with an error proportional to ? 2 (the gap between curves is twice as large). On the right plot, we consider various variations of our online Newton-approximation scheme. The ?2-step? algorithm is the one for which our convergence rate holds (n being the total number of examples, we perform n/2 steps of averaged SGD, then n/2 steps of LMS). Not surprisingly, it is not the best in practice (in particular at n/2, when starting the constant-size LMS, the performance worsens temporarily). It is classical to use doubling tricks to remedy this problem while preserving convergence rates [26], this is done in ?2-step-dbl.?, which avoids the previous erratic behavior. We have also considered getting rid of the first stage where plain averaged stochastic gradient is used to obtain a support point for the quadratic approximation. We now consider only Newton-steps but change only these support points. We consider updating the support point at every iteration, i.e., the recursion from Eq. (8), while we also consider updating it every dyadic point (?dbl.-approx?). The last two algorithms perform very similarly and achieve the O(1/n) early. In all experiments on real data, we have considered the simplest variant (which corresponds to Eq. (8)). 4.2 Standard benchmarks We have considered 6 benchmark datasets which are often used in comparing large-scale optimization methods. The datasets are described in Table 1 and vary in values of d, n and sparsity levels. These are all finite binary classification datasets with outputs in {?1, 1}. For least-squares and logistic regression, we have followed the following experimental protocol: (1) remove all outliers (i.e., sample points xn whose norm is greater than 5 times the average norm), (2) divide the dataset in two equal parts, one for training, one for testing, (3) sample within the training dataset with replacement, for 100 times the number of observations in the training set (this corresponds to 100 effective passes; in all plots, a black dashed line marks the first effective pass), (4) compute averaged costs on training and testing data (based on 10 replications). All the costs are shown in log-scale, normalized to that the first iteration leads to f (?0 ) ? f (?? ) = 1. All algorithms that we consider (ours and others) have a step-size, and typically a theoretical value that ensures convergence. We consider two settings: (1) one when this theoretical value is used, (2) one with the best testing error after one effective pass through the data (testing powers of 4 times the theoretical step-size). 6 Here, we only consider covertype, alpha, sido and news, as well as test errors. For all training errors and the two other datasets (quantum, rcv1), see [15]. Least-squares regression. We compare three algorithms: averaged SGD with constant step-size, ? averaged SGD with step-size decaying as C/R2 n, and the stochastic averaged gradient (SAG) method which is dedicated to finite training data sets [27], which has shown state-of-the-art performance in this set-up. We show the results in the two left plots of Figure 2 and Figure 3. ? Averaged SGD with decaying step-size equal to C/R2 n is slowest (except for sido). In particular, when the best constant C is used (right columns), the performance typically starts to increase significantly. With that step size, even after 100 passes, there is no sign of overfitting, even for the high-dimensional sparse datasets. SAG and constant-step-size averaged SGD exhibit the best behavior, for the theoretical step-sizes and the best constants, with a significant advantage for constant-step-size SGD. The non-sparse datasets do not lead to overfitting, even close to the global optimum of the (unregularized) training objectives, while the sparse datasets do exhibit some overfitting after more than 10 passes. Logistic regression. We also compare two additional algorithms: our Newton-based technique and 1 ?Adagrad? [7], which is a stochastic gradient method with a form a diagonal ? scaling that allows to reduce the convergence rate (which is still in theory proportional to O(1/ n)). We show results in the two right plots of Figure 2 and Figure 3. ? Averaged SGD with decaying step-size proportional to 1/R2 n has the same behavior than for least-squares (step-size harder to tune, always inferior performance except for sido). SAG, constant-step-size SGD and the novel Newton technique tend to behave similarly (good with theoretical step-size, always among the best methods). They differ notably in some aspects: (1) SAG converges quicker for the training errors (shown in [15]) while it is a bit slower for the testing error, (2) in some instances, constant-step-size averaged SGD does underfit (covertype, alpha, news), which is consistent with the lack of convergence to the global optimum mentioned earlier, (3) the novel online Newton algorithm is consistently better. On the non-sparse datasets, Adagrad performs similarly to the Newton-type method (often better in early iterations and worse later), except for the alpha dataset where the step-size is harder to tune (the best step-size tends to have early iterations that make the cost go up significantly). On sparse datasets like rcv1, the performance is essentially the same as Newton. On the sido data set, Adagrad (with fixed steps size, left column) achieves a good testing loss quickly then levels off, for reasons we cannot explain. On the news dataset, it is inferior without parameter-tuning and a bit better with. Adagrad uses a diagonal rescaling; it could be combined with our technique, early experiments show that it improves results but that it is more sensitive to the choice of step-size. Overall, even with d and ? very large (where our bounds are vacuous), the performance of our algorithm still achieves the state of the art, while being more robust to the selection of the step-size: finer quantities likes degrees of freedom [13] should be able to quantify more accurately the quality of the new algorithms. 5 Conclusion In this paper, we have presented two stochastic approximation algorithms that can achieve rates of O(1/n) for logistic and least-squares regression, without strong-convexity assumptions. Our analysis reinforces the key role of averaging in obtaining fast rates, in particular with large stepsizes. Our work can naturally be extended in several ways: (a) an analysis of the algorithm that updates the support point of the quadratic approximation at every iteration, (b) proximal extensions (easy to implement, but potentially harder to analyze); (c) adaptive ways to find the constant-stepsize; (d) step-sizes that depend on the iterates to increase robustness, like in normalized LMS [20], and (e) non-parametric analysis to improve our theoretical results for large values of d. Acknowledgements. Francis Bach was partially supported by the European Research Council (SIERRA Project). We thank Aymeric Dieuleveut and Nicolas Flammarion for helpful discussions. 1 Since a bound on k?? k is not available, we have used step-sizes proportional to 1/ supn kxn k? . 7 Table 1: Datasets used in our experiments. We report the proportion of non-zero entries, as well as estimates for the constant ? and ? used in our theoretical results, together with the non-sharp constant which is typically used in analysis of logistic regression and which our analysis avoids (these are computed for non-sparse datasets only). d 79 55 501 4 933 47 237 1 355 192 n 50 000 581 012 500 000 12 678 20 242 19 996 covertype square C=opt test 0 0 ?0.5 ?0.5 ?1 ?1 ?1.5 ?1.5 ?2 ?2 ?2.5 ?3 0 1/R2 1/R2n1/2 SAG 2 ?2.5 ?3 4 log10(n) 6 0 log10[f(?)?f(?*)] alpha square C=1 test 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 ?0.5 ?0.5 ?1 ?1 ?1.5 ?2 0 1/R2 1/R2n1/2 SAG 2 ?1.5 ?2 4 log10(n) 6 0 C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG 2 4 log10(n) 6 0 2 ?1 ?1 2 ?2 0.5 ?3 4 log10(n) 6 alpha logistic C=1 test 0 0.5 0 0 ?0.5 ?1 ?1.5 ?2.5 0 6 2 C/R 2 1/2 C/R n SAG Adagrad Newton ?2 ?0.5 ?2 4 log10(n) 2 1/R 2 1/2 1/R n SAG Adagrad Newton 0 C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG covertype logistic C=opt test 0 ?3 alpha square C=opt test 1 1/ inf n ??? (yn , h?? , xn i) 8.5 ?102 3 ?1012 8 ?104 ? ? ? ? 16 160 18 ? ? ? covertype logistic C=1 test log10[f(?)?f(?*)] log10[f(?)?f(?*)] covertype square C=1 test ? 5.8 ?102 9.6 ?102 6 1.3 ?104 2 ?104 2 ?104 sparsity 100 % 100 % 100 % 10 % 0.2 % 0.03 % log10[f(?)?f(?*)] Name quantum covertype alpha sido rcv1 news ?1 1/R2 1/R2n1/2 SAG Adagrad Newton 2 ?1.5 ?2 4 log10(n) 6 ?2.5 0 2 4 log10(n) 6 alpha logistic C=opt test C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG Adagrad Newton 2 4 log10(n) 6 Figure 2: Test performance for least-square regression (two left plots) and logistic regression (two right plots). From top to bottom: covertype, alpha. Left: theoretical steps, right: steps optimized for performance after one effective pass through the data. Best seen in color. 1/R2 1/R2n1/2 SAG 0 ?0.5 ?0.5 ?1 ?1 0 2 4 log10(n) 0 log10[f(?)?f(?*)] news square C=1 test sido logistic C=1 test C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG 2 4 log10(n) sido logistic C=opt test ?0.5 1/R2 0 1/R2n1/2 SAG Adagrad Newton ?0.5 ?1 ?1 0 0 2 4 log10(n) 0 news logistic C=1 test news square C=opt test 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 ?0.2 ?0.2 ?0.4 ?0.6 ?0.8 0 ?0.4 1/R2 1/R2n1/2 SAG 2 log10(n) ?0.6 ?0.8 4 0 C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG 2 log10(n) ?0.2 ?0.4 ?0.6 ?0.8 ?1 0 4 C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG Adagrad Newton 2 4 log10(n) news logistic C=opt test 0.2 log10[f(?)?f(?*)] log10[f(?)?f(?*)] 0 sido square C=opt test log10[f(?)?f(?*)] sido square C=1 test ?0.2 1/R2 1/R2n1/2 SAG Adagrad Newton 2 log10(n) ?0.4 ?0.6 ?0.8 4 ?1 0 C/R2 C/R2n1/2 SAG Adagrad Newton 2 log10(n) 4 Figure 3: Test performance for least-square regression (two left plots) and logistic regression (two right plots). From top to bottom: sido, news. Left: theoretical steps, right: steps optimized for performance after one effective pass through the data. Best seen in color. 8 References [1] H. Robbins and S. Monro. A stochastic approximation method. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, pages 400?407, 1951. [2] B. T. Polyak and A. B. Juditsky. Acceleration of stochastic approximation by averaging. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 30(4):838?855, 1992. [3] L. Bottou and O. Bousquet. The tradeoffs of large scale learning. In Adv. NIPS, 2008. [4] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal estimated sub-gradient solver for SVM. In Proc. ICML, 2007. [5] A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, and A. Shapiro. Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 19(4):1574?1609, 2009. [6] F. Bach and E. Moulines. Non-asymptotic analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms for machine learning. In Adv. NIPS, 2011. [7] J. Duchi, E. Hazan, and Y. Singer. Adaptive subgradient methods for online learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:2121?2159, 2010. [8] A. S. Nemirovsky and D. B. Yudin. Problem complexity and method efficiency in optimization. Wiley & Sons, 1983. [9] Y. Nesterov. Introductory lectures on convex optimization. Kluwer, 2004. [10] G. Lan. An optimal method for stochastic composite optimization. Mathematical Programming, 133(1-2):365?397, 2012. [11] L. Gy?orfi and H. Walk. On the averaged stochastic approximation for linear regression. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 34(1):31?61, 1996. [12] H. J. Kushner and G. G. Yin. Stochastic approximation and recursive algorithms and applications. Springer-Verlag, second edition, 2003. [13] C. Gu. Smoothing spline ANOVA models. Springer, 2002. [14] R. Aguech, E. Moulines, and P. Priouret. On a perturbation approach for the analysis of stochastic tracking algorithms. SIAM J. Control and Optimization, 39(3):872?899, 2000. [15] F. Bach and E. Moulines. Non-strongly-convex smooth stochastic approximation with convergence rate O(1/n). Technical Report 00831977, HAL, 2013. [16] A. B. Tsybakov. Optimal rates of aggregation. In Proc. COLT, 2003. [17] O. Macchi. Adaptive processing: The least mean squares approach with applications in transmission. Wiley West Sussex, 1995. [18] S. Meyn and R. Tweedie. Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability. Cambridge U. P., 2009. [19] A. Hyv?arinen and E. Oja. A fast fixed-point algorithm for independent component analysis. Neural computation, 9(7):1483?1492, 1997. [20] N.J. Bershad. Analysis of the normalized LMS algorithm with Gaussian inputs. IEEE Transactions on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 34(4):793?806, 1986. [21] A. Nedic and D. Bertsekas. Convergence rate of incremental subgradient algorithms. Stochastic Optimization: Algorithms and Applications, pages 263?304, 2000. [22] F. Bach. Adaptivity of averaged stochastic gradient descent to local strong convexity for logistic regression. Technical Report 00804431-v2, HAL, 2013. [23] V. S. Borkar. Stochastic approximation with two time scales. Systems & Control Letters, 29(5):291?294, 1997. [24] A. W. Van der Vaart. Asymptotic statistics, volume 3. Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000. [25] F. Bach. Self-concordant analysis for logistic regression. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 4:384?414, 2010. [26] E. Hazan and S. Kale. Beyond the regret minimization barrier: an optimal algorithm for stochastic strongly-convex optimization. In Proc. COLT, 2001. [27] M. Schmidt, N. Le Roux, and F. Bach. Minimizing finite sums with the stochastic average gradient. Technical Report 00860051, HAL, 2013. 9
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Message Passing Inference with Chemical Reaction Networks Nils Napp Ryan Prescott Adams Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Recent work on molecular programming has explored new possibilities for computational abstractions with biomolecules, including logic gates, neural networks, and linear systems. In the future such abstractions might enable nanoscale devices that can sense and control the world at a molecular scale. Just as in macroscale robotics, it is critical that such devices can learn about their environment and reason under uncertainty. At this small scale, systems are typically modeled as chemical reaction networks. In this work, we develop a procedure that can take arbitrary probabilistic graphical models, represented as factor graphs over discrete random variables, and compile them into chemical reaction networks that implement inference. In particular, we show that marginalization based on sum-product message passing can be implemented in terms of reactions between chemical species whose concentrations represent probabilities. We show algebraically that the steady state concentration of these species correspond to the marginal distributions of the random variables in the graph and validate the results in simulations. As with standard sum-product inference, this procedure yields exact results for tree-structured graphs, and approximate solutions for loopy graphs. 1 Introduction Recent advances in nanoscale devices and biomolecular synthesis have opened up new and exciting possibilities for constructing microscopic systems that can sense and autonomously manipulate the world. Necessary to such advances is the development of computational mechanisms and associated abstractions for algorithmic control of these nanorobots. Work on molecular programming has explored the power of chemical computation [3, 6, 11] and resulted in in vitro biomolecular implementations of various such abstractions, including logic gates [16], artificial neural networks [9, 10, 14], tiled self-assembly models [12, 15], and linear functions and systems [4, 13, 20]. Similarly, in vivo gene regulatory networks can be designed that when transformed into cells implement devices such as oscillators [8], intracellularly coupled oscillators [7], or distributed algorithms like pattern formation [1]. Many critical information processing tasks can be framed in terms of probabilistic inference, in which noisy or incomplete information is accumulated to produce statistical estimates of hidden structure. In fact, we believe that this particular computational abstraction is ideally suited to the noisy and often poorly characterized microscopic world. In this work, we develop a chemical reaction network for performing inference in probabilistic graphical models. We show that message passing schemes, such as belief propagation, map relatively straightforwardly onto sets of chemical reactions, which can be thought of as the ?assembly language? of both in vitro and in vivo computation at the molecular scale. The long-term possibilities of such technology are myriad: adaptive tissue-sensitive drug delivery, in situ chemical sensing, and identification of disease states. 1 Abstract Problem & Algorithm Low-Level ?Assembly? Language (1?1) ?1 P(1?1) S1 ?2 S(1?1) P(2?2) (1?1) S2 S(2?2) (3?2) P(1?3) x1 S0 P(2?3) x2 ?3 S(3?1) (3?2) S0 (a) ?r GGGGB S0(1?1) . . . ?3 (1,1) (1?3) ?3 (2,1) + P2 S(3?2) ?r GGGGB S0(1?1) (1?3) + P1 Physical Implementation GGGGGGGB GGGGGGGB . . . (3?2) + P1 (3?2) + P2 S1 S1 (b) (1?3) (1?3) (c) Figure 1: Inference at different levels of abstraction. (a) Factor graph over two random variables. Inference can be performed efficiently by passing messages (shown as gray arrows) between vertices, see Section 2. (b) Message passing implemented at a lower level of abstraction. Chemical species represent the different components of message vectors. The chemical reaction networks constructed in Section 3 perform the same computation as the sum-product message passing algorithm. (c) Schematic representation of DNA strand displacement. A given reaction network can be implemented in different physical systems, e.g. DNA strand displacement cascades [5, 17]. At the small scales of interest systems are typically modeled as deterministic chemical reaction networks or their stochastic counterparts that explicitly model fluctuations and noise. However, chemical reactions are not only models, but can be thought of as specifications or abstract computational frameworks themselves. For example, arbitrary reaction networks can be simulated by DNA strand displacement systems [5, 17], where some strands correspond to the chemical species in the specifying reaction network. Reactions rates in these systems can be tuned over many orders of magnitude by adjusting the toehold length of displacement steps, and high order reactions can be approximated by introducing auxiliary species. We take advantage of this abstraction by ?compiling? the sumproduct algorithm for discrete variable factor graphs into a chemical reaction network, where the concentrations of some species represent conditional and marginal distributions of variables in the graph. In some ways, this representation is very natural: while normalization is a constant concern in digital systems, our chemical design conserves species within some subsets and thus implicitly and continuously normalizes its estimates. The computation is complete when the reaction network reaches equilibrium. Variables in the graph can be conditioned upon by adjusting the reaction rates corresponding to unary potentials in the graph. Section 2 provides a brief review of factor graphs and the sum-product algorithm. Section 3 introduces notation and concepts for chemical reaction networks. Section 4 shows how inference on factor graphs can be compiled into reaction networks, and in Section 5, we show several example networks and compare the results of molecular simulations to standard digital inference procedures. To aid parsing the potentially tangled notation resulting from mixing probabilistic inference tools with chemical reaction models, this paper follows these general notational guidelines: capital letters denote constants, such as set sizes, and other quantities, such as tuples and message types; lower case letters denote parameters, such as reaction rates and indices; bold face letters denote vectors and subscripts elements of that vector; scripted upper letters indicate sets; random variables are always denoted by x or their vector version; and species names have a sans-serif font. 2 Graphical Models and Probabilistic Inference Graphical models are popular tools for reasoning about complicated probability distributions. In most types of graphical models, vertices represent random variables and edges reflect dependence structure. Here, we focus on the factor graph formalism, in which there are two types of vertices that have a bipartite structure: variable nodes (typically drawn as circles), which represent random variables, and factor nodes (typically drawn as squares), which represent potentials (also called compatibility functions) coupling the random variables. Factor graphs, encode the factorization of a probability distribution and therefore its conditional independence structure. Other graphical models, such as bayesian networks, can be converted to factor graphs, and thus factor graph algorithms are directly applicable to other types of graphical models, see [2, Ch. 8]. 2 Let G be a factor graph over N random variables {xn }N n=1 where xn takes one of Kn discrete values. The global N -dimensional random variable x takes on values in the (potentially huge) product space Q K = N n=1 {1, ..., Kn }. The other nodes of G are called factors and every edge in G connects exactly one factor node and one variable node. In general, G can have J factors {?j (xj )}Jj=1 where we use xj to indicate the subset of random variables that are neighbors of factor Q j, i.e. {xn | n ? ne(j)}. Each xj takes on values in the (potentially much smaller) space Kj = n?ne(j) {1, ..., Kn }, and each ?j is a non-negative scalar function on Kj . Together the structure of G and the particular factors ?j define a joint distribution on x Pr(x) = Pr(x1 , x2 , ? ? ? , xN ) = J 1 Y ?j (xj ), Z j=1 (1) where Z is the appropriate normalizing constant. Figure 1a shows a simple factor graph with two variable nodes and three factors. It implies that the the joint distribution x1 and x2 has the form Pr(x1 , x2 ) = Z1 ?1 (x1 )?2 (x2 )?3 (x1 , x2 ). The sum-product algorithm (belief propagation) is an dynamic programming technique for performing marginalization in a factor graph. That is, it computes sums of the form J 1 XY Pr(xn ) = ?j (xj ). (2) Z j=1 x\xn For tree-structured factor graphs, the sum-product algorithm efficiently recovers the exact marginals. For more general graphs the sum-product algorithm often converges to useful approximations, in which case it is called loopy belief propagation. The sum-product algorithm proceeds by passing ?messages? along the graph edges. There are two kinds of messages messages from a factor node to a variable node and messages from a variable node to a factor node. In order to make clear what quantities are represented by chemical species concentrations in Section 4, we use somewhat unconventional notation. The kth entry of the sum (j?n) message from factor node j to variable node n is denoted Sk and the entire Kn -dimensional (j?n) vector is denoted by S . The kth entry of the product message from variable n to factor node j (n?j) is denoted by Pk and the entire Kj -dimensional vector is denoted P(n?j) . Figure 1a shows a simple factor graph with message names and their directions shown as gray arrows. Sum messages from j are computed as the weighted sum of product messages over the domain Kj of ?j X Y (n? ?j) (j?n) P kj , (3) Sk = ?j (xj = kj ) kjn =k n? ?ne(j)\n n? where ne(j)\n refers to the variable node neighbors of j except n and kjn = k to the set of all kj ? Kj where the entry in the dimension of n is fixed to k. Product messages are computed by taking the component-wise product of incoming sum messages Y (j ? ?n) (n?j) Sk . (4) Pk = j ? ?ne(n)\j Up to normalization, the marginals can be computed from the product of incoming sum messages Y (j?n) Sk . (5) Pr(xn = k) = j?ne(n) The sum-product algorithm corresponds to fixed-point iterations that are minimizing the Bethe free energy. This observation leads to both partial-update or damped variants of sum-product, as well as asynchronous versions [18, Ch.6][19]. The validity of damped asynchronous sum-product is what enables us to frame the computation as a chemical reaction network. The continuous ODE description of species concentrations that represent messages can be thought of as an infinitesimally small version of damped asynchronous update rules. 3 Chemical Reaction Networks The following model describes how a set of M chemical species Z = {Z1 , Z2 , ? ? ? , ZM } interact and their concentrations evolve over time. Each reaction has the general form 3 ? r1 Z1 + r2 Z2 + ? ? ? + rM ZM GGGGGGGB p1 Z1 + p2 Z2 + ? ? ? + pM ZM . (6) In this generic representation most of the coefficients rm ? N and pm ? N are typically zero (where N indicates non-negative integers). The species on the left with non-zero coefficients are called reactants and are consumed during the reaction. The species on the right with non-zero entries are called products and are produced during the reaction. Species that participate in a reaction, i.e., rm > 0, but where no net consumption or production occurs, i.e. rm = pm , are called catalysts. They change the dynamics of a particular reaction without being changed themselves. A reaction network over a given set of species consists of a set of Q reactions R = {R1 , R2 , ? ? ? , RQ }, where each reaction is a triple of reaction parameters (6), Rq = (rq , ?q , pq ). (7) For example, in a reaction Rq ? R where species Z1 and Z3 form a new chemical species Z2 at a rate of ?q , the reactant vector rq is zero everywhere except at rq1 = rq3 = 1. The associated product vector pq is zero everywhere except at pq2 = 1. In the reaction notation where non-participating species are dropped reaction Rq is can be compactly written as ?q Z1 + Z3 GGGGGGGB Z2 . (8) 3.1 Mass Action Kinetics The concentration of each chemical species Zm is denoted by [Zm ]. A reaction network describes the evolution of species concentrations as a set of coupled non-linear differential equations. For each species concentration [Zm ] the rate of change is given by mass action kinetics, Q M Y q d[Zm ] X ?q = [Zm? ]rm? (pqm ? rqm ). dt ? q=1 (9) m =1 PM Based on the fact that reactant coefficients appear as powers, the sum m=1 rm is called the order of a reaction. For example, if the only reaction in a network were the second order reaction (8), the concentration dynamics of [Z1 ] would be d[Z1 ] = ??q [Z1 ][Z3 ]. dt (10) Similar to [4] we design reaction networks where the equilibrium concentration of some species corresponds to the results we are interested in computing. The reaction networks in the following section conserve mass and do not require flux in or out of the system, and therefore the solutions are guaranteed to be bounded. While we cannot rule out oscillations in general, the message passing methods these reactions are simulating correspond to an energy minimization problem. As such, we suspect that the particular reaction networks presented here always converge to their equilibrium. 4 Representing Graphical Models with Reaction Networks In the following compilation procedure, each message and marginal probability is represented by a set of distinct chemical species. We design networks that cause them to interact in such a way that, at steady state, the concentration of some species represent the marginal distributions of the variable nodes in a factor graph. When information arrives the network equilibrates to the new, correct, value. Since messages in the sum-product inference algorithm are computed from other messages, the reaction networks that implement sending messages describe how species from one message catalyze the species of another message. Beliefs and messages are represented as concentrations of chemical species: each component of a (j?n) (j?n) sum message, Sk , has an associated chemical species Sk ; each component of a product (n?j) (n?j) message, Pk , has an associated chemical species Pk ; and each component of a marginal probability distribution, Pr(xn = k), has an associated chemical species Pnk . In addition, each message and marginal probability distribution has a chemical species with a zero subscript that represents unassigned probability mass. Together, the set of species associated with a messages or 4 marginal probability are called a belief species, and the reaction networks presented in the subsequent sections are designed to conserve species ? and by extension their concentrations ? with each n such set. For example, the concentration of belief species P n = {Pnk }K k=0 of Pr(xn ) have a constant PKn n sum, k=0 [Pk ] , determined by the initial concentrations. These sets belief species are a chemical representation of the left hand sides of Equations 3?5. The next few sections present reaction networks whose dynamics implement their right hand sides. 4.1 Belief Recycling Reactions Each set of belief species has an associated set of reactions that recycle assigned probabilities to the unassigned species. By continuously and dynamically reallocating probability mass, the resulting reaction network can adapt to changing potential functions ?j , i.e. new information. For example, the factor graph shown in Figure 1a has 8 distinct sets of belief species ? 2 representing marginal probabilities of x1 and x2 , and 6 (ignoring messages to leaf factor nodes) representing messages. The associate recycling reactions are ?r (2?3) GGGGB P(2?3) . 0 (11) (3?2) GGGGB S(3?2) 0 Pk GGGGB S(2?2) 0 Sk ?r GGGGB P(1?3) 0 Pk (2?2) Sk ?r ?r (1?3) GGGGB S(3?1) 0 Sk P2k GGGGB P20 ?r (3?1) GGGGB S(1?1) 0 Sk ?r ?r (1?1) P1k GGGGB P10 ?r By choosing a smaller rate ?r less of the probability mass will be unassigned at steady state, i.e. quantities will be closer to normalized, however the speed at which the reaction network reaches steady state decreases, see Section 5. 4.2 Sum Messages In the reactions that implement messages from factor to variable nodes, message species of incoming messages catalyze the assignment of message species belonging to outgoing messages. The entries in factor tables determine the associated rate constants. The kth message component from a factor node ?j to the variable node xn is implemented by a reactions of the form (j?n) S0 X + n? ?ne(j)\n X ?j (xj =kj ) (n? ?j) GGGGGGGB Sk(j?n) + Pkj n? (n? ?j) Pkj n? ?ne(j)\n , (12) n? where the nth component of kj is clamped to k, kjn = k. Using the law of mass action, the kinetics for each sum message species are given by (j?n) d[Sk dt ] = X (j?n) ?j (xj = kj )[S0 ] kjn =k Y (n? ?j) [Pkj n? ?ne(j)\n n? (j?n) ] ? ?r [Sk ]. (13) (j?n) At steady state the concentration of Sk ?r (j?n) [S0 ] (j?n) where all [Sk is given by X (j?n) [Sk ]= ?j (xj = kj ) Y kjn =k n? ?ne(j)\n ] species concentrations have the same factor (n? ?j) [Pkj ?r (j?n) [S0 ], (14) n? ] . Their relative concentra- tions are exactly the message according to the to Equation (3). As ?r decreases, the concentration of unassigned probability mass decreases and the concentration normalized by the constant sum of all the related belief species can be interpreted as a probability. For example, the four factor-to-variable messages in Figure 1(a) can be implemented with the following reactions ?1 (k) (1?1) GGGGGGGB S(1?1) k (2?2) GGGGGGGB S(2?2) k S0 S0 ?2 (k) (2?3) GGGGGGGB S(3?1) + Pk? k (1?3) (1?3) GGGGGGGB S(3?2) + Pk? . k + Pk? (3?2) + Pk? S0 5 ?3 (k,k? ) (2?3) (3?1) S0 ?3 (k? ,k) (15) ?1 x1 ?2 x2 ?4 ?1 ?3 x1 x3 ?5 ?2 ?6 ?3 x2 x4 ?7 ?4 ?6 (a) ?1 (1) 1 ?4 (1, ?) ?4 (2, ?) ?1 (2) 0.1 ?4 (?, 1) 1 0.1 ?1? (1) 0.1 ?4 (?, 2) 0.1 3 x3 ?5 (b) ?1? (2) 1 ?3 (1) ?3 (2) ?2 (1) ?2 (2) 1 0.1 2 1 ?5 (?, 1) ?5 (?, 2) ?5 (?, 3) ?5 (1, ?) 0.1 2 0.1 ?5 (2, ?) 3 0.1 1 ?3 (3) 1 ?6 (1, ?) ?6 (2, ?) ?7 (1) 1 ?6 (?, 1) 0.1 1 ?7 (2) 1 ?6 (?, 2) 0.1 0.1 (c) Figure 2: Examples of non-trivial factor graphs. (a) Four variable factor graph with binary factors. The factor leafs can be used to specify information about a particular variable. (b) Example of a small three variable cyclic graph. (c) Factors for (a) used in simulation experiments in Section. 5.1. 4.3 Product Messages Reaction networks that implement variable to factor node messages have a similar, but slightly simpler, structure. Again, each components species of the message is catalyzed by all incoming messages species but only of the same component species. The rate constant for all product message reactions is the same ?prod resulting in reactions of the following form X (j ? ?n) X (j ? ?n) ?prod (n?j) GGGGGGGB Pk(n?j) + Sk . (16) Sk P0 + j ? ?ne(n)\j j ? ?ne(n)\j The dynamics of the message component species is given by (n?j) Y d[Pk ] (j ? ?n) (n?j) (n?j) [Sk ] ? ?r [Pk ]. = ?prod [P0 ] dt ? (17) j ?ne(n)\j (n?j) At steady state the concentration of Pk ?r is given by (n?j) [Pk ] (n?j) ?prod [P0 ] = Y (j ? ?n) [Sk ]. (18) j ? ?ne(n)\j Since all component species of product messages have the same multiplier (n?j) ?r ], (n?j) [Pk ?prod [P0 ] the steady state species concentrations compute the correct message according to Equation 4. For example, the two different sets of variable to factor messages in Figure 1a are (1?3) (1?1) ?prod (1?3) (1?1) (2?3) (2?2) ?prod (2?3) (2?2) GGGGB Pk GGGGB Pk + Sk . + Sk P0 + Sk P0 + Sk Similarly, the reactions to compute the marginal probabilities of x1 and x2 in Figure 1a are (3?1) P10 + Sk (1?1) + Sk (19) ?prod (1?1) GGGGB P1k + S(3?1) + Sk k (20) ?prod (3?2) (2?2) GGGGB P2k + Sk(3?2) + S(2?2) . P20 + Sk + Sk k The two rate constants ?prod and ?r can be adjusted to tradeoff speed vs. accuracy, see Section 5. Together, reactions for recycling probability mass, implementing sum-product messages, and implementing product messages define a reaction network whose equilibrium computes the messages and marginal probabilities via the sum-product algorithm. As probability mass is continuously recycled, messages computed on partial information will readjust and settle to the correct value. There is a clear dependence of messages. Sum messages from leaf nodes do not depend on any other messages. Once they are computed, i.e. the reactions have equilibrated, the message species continue to catalyze the next set of messages until they have reached the the correct value, etc. 6 ?r = 0.1 ?r = 0.01 exact slow fast Pr(x1 ) Pr(x1 ) 0.692 0.308 0.690 0.306 0.661 0.294 Pr(x2 ) Pr(x2 ) 0.598 0.402 0.583 0.393 0.449 0.302 0.392 0.394 0.379 Pr(x3 ) Pr(x3 ) 0.526 0.083 0.520 0.083 0.508 0.080 Pr(x4 ) 0.664 0.336 0.665 0.333 0.646 0.326 Figure 3: Inference results for factor graph in Figure 2(a). Colored boxes show the trajectories of a belief species set in a simulated reaction network. The simulation time (3000 sec) is along the x?dimension. Half way though the simulation the factor attached to x1 changes from ?1 to ?1? , and the exact marginal distribution for each period is shown as a back-white dashed line. The white area at the top indicates unassigned probability mass. These plots show the clear tradeoff between speed (higher value of ?r ) and accuracy (less unassigned probability mass). The exact numerical answers at 3000 sec are given in the table. 5 Simulation Experiments This section presents simulation results of factor graphs that have been compiled into reaction networks via the procedure in Section 4. All simulations were performed using the SimBiology Toolbox in Matlab with the ?sundials? solver. The conserved concentrations for all sets of belief species were set to 1, so plots of concentrations can be directly interpreted as probabilities. Figure 2 shows two graphical models for which we present detailed simulation results in the next two sections. 5.1 Tree-Structured Factor Graphs To demonstrate the functionality and features of the compilation procedure described in Section 4, we compiled the 4 variable factor graph shown in Figure 2a into a reaction network. When x1 , x2 , x3 and x4 have discrete states K1 = K2 = K4 = 2 and K3 = 3, the resulting network has 64 chemical species and 105 reactions. The largest reaction is of 5th order to compute the marginal distribution of x2 . We instantiated the factors as shown in Figure 2c and initialized all message and marginal species to be uniform. To show that the network continuously performs inference and can adapt to new information, we changed the factor ?1 to ?1? half way through the simulation. In terms of information, the new factor implies that Pr(x1 = 2) is suddenly more likely. In terms of reactions (1?1) (1?1) the change means that S0 is now more likely to turn into S2 . In a biological reaction network, such a change could be induced by up-regulating, or activating a catalyst due to a new chemical signal. This new information changes the probability distribution of all variables in the graph and the network equilibrates to these new values, see Figure 3. The only two free parameters are ?prod and ?r . Since only ?r has an direct effect on all sets of belief species, we fixed ?prod = 50 and varied ?r . Small values of ?r results in better approximation as less of the probability mass in each belief species set is in an unassigned state. However, small values of ?r slow the dynamics of the network. Larger values of ?r result in faster dynamics, but more of the probability mass remains unassigned, top white area in Figure 3. We should note, that at equilibrium, the relative assignments of probabilities are still correct, see Equation 14 and Equation 18. The compilation procedure also works for factor graphs with larger factors. When replacing the two of the binary factors ?5 and ?6 in Figure 2a with a new tertiary factor ?5? that is connected to x2 ,x3 , and x4 the compiled reaction network has 58 species and 115 reactions. The largest reaction is of order 4. Larger factors can reduce the number of species since there are fewer edges and associated messages to represent, however, the domain sizes Kj of the individual factors grows exponentially and in the number of neighbors and thus require more reactions to implement. 7 (a) (b) Figure 4: (a) The belief of Pr(x1 = 1) as function of iteration in loopy belief propagation. All messages are updated simultaneously at every time step. After 100 iterations the oscillations abate and the belief converges to the correct estimate indicated by the dashed line. (b) Trajectory of PAi species concentrations. The simulation time is 3000 sec and the different colors indicate the belief of about either of the two states. The dotted line indicates the exact marginal distribution of x1 . 5.2 Loopy Belief Propagation These networks can also be used on factor graphs that are not trees. Figure 2b shows a cyclic graph which we compiled to reactions and simulated. When Kn = 2 for all variables the resulting reaction network has 54 species and 84 reactions. We chose factor tables that anti-correlate neighbors and leaf factors that prefer the same state. Figure 4 shows the results of performing both loopy belief propagation and simulation results for the compiled reaction network. Both exhibit decaying oscillations, but settle to the correct marginal distribution. Since the reaction network is essentially performing damped loopy belief propagation with an infinitesimal time step, the reaction network implementation should always converge. 6 Conclusion We present a compilation procedure for taking arbitrary factor graphs over discrete random variables and construct a reaction network that performs the sum-product message passing algorithm for computing marginal distributions. These reaction networks exploit the fact that the message structure of the sum-product algorithm maps neatly onto the model of mass action kinetics. By construction, conserved sets of belief species in the network perform implicit and continuous normalization of all messages and marginal distributions. The correct behavior of the network implementation relies on higher order reactions to implement multiplicative operations. However, physically high order reaction are exceedingly unlikely to proceed in a single step. While we can simulate and validate our implementation with respect to the mass action model, a physical implementation will require an additional translation step, e.g. along the lines of [17] with intermediate species of binary reactions. One aspect that this paper did not address, but we believe is important, is how parameter uncertainty and noise affect the reaction network implementations of inference algorithms. Ideally, they would be robust to parameter uncertainty and random fluctuations. To address the former one could directly compute the parameter sensitivity in this deterministic model. To address the latter, we plan to look at other semantic interpretations of chemical reaction networks, such as the linear noise approximation or the stochastic chemical kinetics model. In addition to further analyzing this particular algorithm we would like to implement others, e.g. max-product, parameter learning, and dynamic state estimation, as reaction networks. We believe that statistical inference provides the right tools for tackling noise and uncertainty at a microscopic level, and that reaction networks are the right language for specifying systems at that scale. Acknowledgements We are grateful to Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering at Harvard, especially Prof. Radhika Nagpal, for supporting this research. We would also like to thank our colleagues and reviewers for their helpful feedback. 8 References [1] Subhayu Basu, Yoram Gerchman, Cynthia H. Collins, Frances H. Arnold, and Ron Weiss. A synthetic multicellular system for programmed pattern formation. Nature, 434:1130?1134, 2005. [2] Christopher M. Bishop. Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Information Science and Statistics. Springer, 2006. [3] Luca Cardelli and Gianluigi Zavattaro. On the computational power of biochemistry. 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Constructing free-energy approximations and generalized belief propagation algorithms. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 51(7):2282?2312, 2005. [20] David Yu Zhang and Georg Seelig. DNA-based fixed gain amplifiers and linear classifier circuits. In Yasubumi Sakakibara and Yongli Mi, editors, DNA Computing and Molecular Programming, volume 6518 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 176?186. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. 9
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Information-theoretic lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation with communication constraints Yuchen Zhang1 John C. Duchi1 Michael I. Jordan1,2 Martin J. Wainwright1,2 1 Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and 2 Department of Statistics University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 {yuczhang,jduchi,jordan,wainwrig}@eecs.berkeley.edu Abstract We establish lower bounds on minimax risks for distributed statistical estimation under a communication budget. Such lower bounds reveal the minimum amount of communication required by any procedure to achieve the centralized minimax-optimal rates for statistical estimation. We study two classes of protocols: one in which machines send messages independently, and a second allowing for interactive communication. We establish lower bounds for several problems, including various types of location models, as well as for parameter estimation in regression models. 1 Introduction Rapid growth in the size and scale of datasets has fueled increasing interest in statistical estimation in distributed settings [see, e.g., 5, 23, 7, 9, 17, 2]. Modern data sets are often too large to be stored on a single machine, so that it is natural to consider methods that involve multiple machines, each assigned a smaller subset of the full dataset. An essential design parameter in such methods is the amount of communication required between machines or chips. Bandwidth limitations on network and inter-chip communication often impose significant bottlenecks on algorithmic efficiency. The focus of the current paper is the communication complexity of various classes of statistical estimation problems. More formally, suppose that we are interested in estimating the parameter ? of some unknown distribution P , based on a dataset of N i.i.d. samples. In the classical setting, one considers centralized estimators that have access to all N samples, and for a given estimation problem, the optimal performance over all centralized schemes can be characterized by the minimax rate. By way of contrast, in the distributed setting, one is given m different machines, and each machine is assigned a subset of samples of size n = ? N m ?. Each machine may perform arbitrary operations on its own subset of data, and it then communicates results of these intermediate computations to the other processors or to a central fusion node. In this paper, we try to answer the following question: what is the minimal number of bits that must be exchanged in order to achieve the optimal estimation error achievable by centralized schemes? There is a substantial literature on communication complexity in many settings, including function computation in theoretical computer science (e.g., [21, 1, 13]), decentralized detection and estimation (e.g., [18, 16, 15]) and information theory [11]. For instance, Luo [15] considers architectures in which machines may send only a single bit to a centralized processor; for certain problems, he shows that if each machine receives a single one-dimensional sample, it is possible to achieve the optimal centralized rate up to constant factors. Among other contributions, Balcan et al. [2] study Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning in the distributed setting; however, their stated lower bounds do not involve the number of machines. In contrast, our work focuses on scaling issues, both in terms of the number of machines as well as the dimensionality of the underlying data, and we formalize the problem in terms of statistical minimax theory. 1 More precisely, we study the following problem: given a budget B of the total number of bits that may be communicated from the m distributed datasets, what is the minimax risk of any estimator based on the communicated messages? While there is a rich literature connecting informationtheoretic techniques with the risk of statistical estimators (e.g. [12, 22, 20, 19]), little of it characterizes the effects of limiting communication. In this paper, we present some minimax lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation. By comparing our lower bounds with results in statistical estimation, we can identify the minimal communication cost that a distributed estimator must pay to have performance comparable to classical centralized estimators. Moreover, we show how to leverage recent work [23] to achieve these fundamental limits. 2 Problem setting and notation We begin with a formal description of the statistical estimation problems considered here. Let P denote a family of distributions and let ? : P ? ? ? Rd denote a function defined on P. A canonical example throughout the paper is the problem of mean estimation, in which ?(P ) = EP [X]. Suppose that, for some fixed but unknown member P of P, there are m sets of data stored on individual machines, where each subset X (i) is an i.i.d. sample of size n from the unknown distribution P .1 Given this distributed collection of local data sets, our goal is to estimate ?(P ) based on the m samples X (1) , . . . , X (m) , but using limited communication. We consider a class of distributed protocols ?, in which at each round t = 1, 2, . . ., machine i sends a message Yt,i that is a measurable function of the local data X (i) , and potentially of past messages. It is convenient to model this message as being sent to a central fusion center. Let Y t = {Yt,i }i?[m] denote the collection of all messages sent at round t. Given a total of T rounds, the protocol ? collects b 1 , . . . , Y T ). The length Lt,i of the sequence (Y 1 , . . . , Y T ), and constructs an estimator ?b := ?(Y P T Pm message Yt,i is the minimal number of bits required to encode it, and the total L = t=1 i=1 Lt,i of all messages sent corresponds to the total communication cost of the protocol. Note that the communication cost is a random variable, since the length of the messages may depend on the data, and the protocol may introduce auxiliary randomness. It is useful to distinguish two different classes, namely independent versus interactive protocols. An independent protocol ? is based on a single round (T = 1) of communication, in which machine i sends message Y1,i to the fusion center. Since there are no past messages, the message Y1,i can depend only on the local sample X (i) . Given a family P, the class of independent protocols with budget B ? 0 is given by X    m (1) Aind (B, P) = independent protocols ? such that sup EP Li ? B . P ?P i=1 (For simplicity, we use Yi to indicate the message sent from processor i and Li to denote its length in the independent case.) It can be useful in some situations to have more granular control on the amount of communication, in particular by enforcing budgets on a per-machine basis. In such cases, we introduce the shorthand B1:m = (B1 , . . . , Bm ) and define   Aind (B1:m , P) = independent protocols ? such that sup EP [Li ] ? Bi for i ? [m] . (2) P ?P In contrast to independent protocols, the class of interactive protocols allows for interaction at different stages of the message passing process. In particular, suppose that machine i sends message Yt,i to the fusion center at time t, who then posts it on a ?public blackboard,? where all machines can read Yt,i . We think of this as a global broadcast system, which may be natural in settings in which processors have limited power or upstream capacity, but the centralized fusion center can send messages without limit. In the interactive setting, the message Yt,i should be viewed as a measurable function of the local data X (i) , and the past messages Y 1:t?1 . The family of interactive protocols with budget B ? 0 is given by   Ainter (B, P) = interactive protocols ? such that sup EP [L] ? B . (3) P ?P 1 Although we assume in this paper that every machine has the same amount of data, our technique generalizes easily to prove tight lower bounds for distinct data sizes on different machines. 2 We conclude this section by defining the minimax framework used throughout this paper. We wish to characterize the best achievable performance of estimators ?b that are functions of only the messages (Y 1 , . . . , Y T ). We measure the quality of a protocol and estimator ?b by the mean-squared error i h b 1 , . . . , Y T ) ? ?(P )k2 , EP,? k?(Y 2 where the expectation is taken with respect to the protocol ? and the m i.i.d. samples X (i) of size n from distribution P . Given a class of distributions P, parameter ? : P ? ?, and communication budget B, the minimax risk for independent protocols is  2  b ind (4) M (?, P, B) := inf inf sup EP,? ?(Y1 , . . . , Ym ) ? ?(P ) . ??Aind (B,P) ?b P ?P 2 Here, the infimum is taken jointly over all independent procotols ? that satisfy the budget constraint B, and over all estimators ?b that are measurable functions of the messages in the protocol. This minimax risk should also be understood to depend on both the number of machines m and the individual sample size n. The minimax risk for interactive protocols, denoted by Minter , is defined analogously, where the infimum is instead taken over the class of interactive protocols. These communicationdependent minimax risks are the central objects in this paper: they provide a sharp characterization of the optimal rate of statistical estimation as a function of the communication budget B. 3 Main results With our setup in place, we now turn to the statement of our main results, along with some discussion of their consequences. 3.1 Lower bound based on metric entropy We begin with a general but relatively naive lower bound that depends only on the geometric strucd ture of the parameter space, as captured by its metric entropy. In particular, given a subset ? ? R , we say {?1 , . . . , ?K } are ?-separated if ?i ? ?j 2 ? ? for i 6= j. We then define the packing entropy of ? as    log M? (?) := log2 max K ? N | {?1 , . . . , ?K } ? ? are ?-separated . (5) The function ? 7? log M? (?) is left-continuous and non-increasing in ?, so we may define the ?1 inverse function log M? (B) := sup{? | log M? (?) ? B}. Proposition 1 For any family of distributions P and parameter set ? = ?(P), the interactive minimax risk is lower bounded as 1 2 ?1 Minter (?, P, B) ? log M? (2B + 2) . (6) 4 Of course, the same lower bound also holds for Mind (?, P, B), since any independent protocol is a special case of an interactive protocol. Although Proposition 1 is a relatively generic statement, not exploiting any particular structure of the problem, it is in general unimprovable by more than constant factors, as the following example illustrates. Example: Bounded mean estimation. Suppose that our goal is to estimate the mean ? = ?(P ) of a class of distributions P supported on the interval [0, 1], so that ? = ?(P) = [0, 1]. Suppose that a single machine (m = 1) receives n i.i.d. observations Xi according to P . Since the packing entropy is lower bounded as log M? (?) ? log(1/?), the lower bound (6) implies e?2 ?2B Mind (?, P, B) ? Minter (?, P, B) ? e . 4 ?2 Thus, setting B = 21 log n yields the lower bound Mind (?, P([0, 1]), B) ? e4n . This lower bound is sharp up to the constant pre-factor, since it can be achieved by a simple P method. Given its n n observations, the single machine can compute the sample mean X n = n1 i=1 Xi . Since the sample mean lies in the interval [0, 1], it can be quantized to accuracy 1/n using log(n) bits, and this quantized version ?b can be transmitted. A straightforward calculation shows that E[(?b ? ?)2 ] ? n2 , so Proposition 1 yields an order-optimal bound in this case. 3 3.2 Multi-machine settings We now turn to the more interesting multi-machine setting (m > 1). Let us study how the budget B?meaning the of bits required to achieve the minimax rate?scales with the number of machines m. We begin by considering the uniform location family U = {P? , ? ? [?1, 1]}, where P? is the uniform distribution on the interval [? ? 1, ? + 1]. For this problem, a direct application of Proposition 1 gives a nearly sharp result. Corollary 1 Consider the uniform location family U with n i.i.d. observations per machine: (a) Whenever the communication budget is upper bounded as B ? log(mn), there is a universal constant c such that c Minter (?, U , B) ? . (mn)2   (b) Conversely, given a budget of B = 2 + 2 ln m log(mn) bits, there is a universal constant c? such that c? Minter (?, U , B) ? . (mn)2 If each of m machines receives n observations, we have a total sample size of mn, so the minimax rate over all centralized procedures scales as 1/(mn)2 (for instance, see [14]). Consequently, Corollary 1(b) shows that the number of bits required to achieve the centralized rate has only logarithmic dependence on the number m of machines. Part (a) shows that this logarithmic dependence on m is unavoidable. It is natural to wonder whether such logarithmic dependence holds more generally. The following result shows that it does not: for some problems, the dependence on m must be (nearly) linear. In particular, we consider estimation in a normal location family model, where each machine receives an i.i.d. sample of size n from a normal distribution N(?, ? 2 ) with unknown mean ?. Theorem 1 For the univariate normal family N = {N(?, ? 2 ) | ? ? [?1, 1]}, there is a universal constant c such that   m m mn ?2 inter . (7) min , , M (?, N , B) ? c mn ? 2 log m B log m The centralized minimax rate for estimating a univariate normal mean based on mn observations  ?2 is mn ; consequently, the lower bound (7) shows that at least B = ? logmm bits are required for a decentralized procedure to match the centralized rate in this case. This type of scaling is dramatically different than the logarithmic scaling for the uniform family, showing that establishing sharp communication-based lower bounds requires careful study of the underlying family of distributions. 3.3 Independent protocols in multi-machine settings Departing from the interactive setting, in this section we focus on independent protocols, providing somewhat more general results than those for interactive protocols. We first provide lower bounds for the problem of mean estimation in the parameter for a d-dimensional normal location family Nd = {N(?, ? 2 Id?d ) | ? ? ? = [?1, 1]d }, (8) Theorem 2 For i = 1, . . . , m, assume that each machine has communication budget Bi , and receives an i.i.d. sample of size n from a distribution P ? Nd . There exists a universal (numerical) constant c such that ) ( 2 ? d m m mn  Mind (?, Nd , B1:m ) ? c . (9) , min , Pm Bi mn ? 2 log m i=1 min{1, d } log m Given centralized access to the full mn-sized sample, a reasonable procedure would be to compute 2 the sample mean, leading to an estimate with mean-squared error ?mnd , which is minimax optimal. 4 Consequently, Theorem 2 shows that to achieve an order-optimal mean-squared error, the total number of bits communicated must (nearly) scale with the product of the dimension d and number of machines m, that is, as dm/ log m. If we ignore logarithmic factors, this lower bound is achievable by a simple procedure: each machine computes the sample mean of its local data and quantizes each coordinate to precision ? 2 /n using O(d log(n/? 2 )) bits. These quantized sample averages are communicated to the fusion center using B = O(dm log(n/? 2 )) total bits. The fusion center averages them, obtaining an estimate with mean-squared error of optimal order ? 2 d/(mn) as required. We finish this section by presenting a result that is sharp up to numerical constant prefactors. It is a minimax lower bound for mean estimation over the family Pd = {P supported on [?1, 1]d }. Proposition 2 Assume that each of m machines receives a single sample (n = 1) from a distribution in Pd . There exists a universal (numerical) constant c such that ( ) m d min m, Pm Mind (?, Pd , B1:m ) ? c , (10) Bi m i=1 min{1, d } where Bi is the budget for machine i. The standard minimax rate for d-dimensional mean estimation Pm scales as d/m. The lower bound (10) shows that in order to achieve this scaling, we must have i=1 min{1, Bdi } & m, showing that each machine must send Bi & d bits. Moreover, this lower bound is achievable by a simple scheme. Suppose that machine i receives a d-dimensional vector Xi ? [?1, 1]d . Based on Xi , it generates a Bernoulli random vector Zi = (Zi1 , . . . , Zid ) with Zij ? {0, 1} taking the value 1 with probability (1 + Xij )/2, independently across coordinates. Machine i uses d bits to send the vector Zi ? {0, 1}d to the fusion center. Pm 1 The fusion center then computes the average ?b = m i=1 (2Zi ? 1). This average is unbiased, and its expected squared error is bounded by d/m. 4 Consequences for regression In this section, we turn to identifying the minimax rates for a pair of important estimation problems: linear regression and probit regression. 4.1 Linear regression We consider a distributed instantiation of linear regression with fixed design matrices. Concretely, suppose that each of m machines has stored a fixed design matrix A(i) ? Rn?d and then observes a response vector b(i) ? Rd from the standard linear regression model b(i) = A(i) ? + ?(i) , (11) where ?(i) ? N(0, ? 2 In?n ) is a noise vector. Our goal is to estimate unknown regression vector ? ? ? = [?1, 1]d , shared across all machines, in a distributed manner, To state our result, we assume uniform upper and lower bounds on the eigenvalues of the rescaled design matrices, namely 0 < ?min ? ?min (A(i) ) ? and n i?{1,...,m} min ?max (A(i) ) ? ? ?max . n i?{1,...,m} max (12) Corollary 2 Consider an instance of the linear regression model (11) under condition (12). (a) Then there is a universal positive constant c such that ) ( ?2 d m m mn ind  . M (?, P, B1:m ) ? c , min , Pm Bi mn ? 2 ?2max log m ?2max i=1 min{1, d } log m (b) Conversely, given budgets Bi ? d log(mn) for i = 1, . . . , m, there is a universal constant c? such that c? ? 2 d Mind (?, P, B1:m ) ? 2 . ?min mn 5 It is a classical fact (e.g. [14]) that the minimax rate for d-dimensional linear regression scales as d? 2 /(nm). Part (a) of Corollary 2 shows this optimal rate is attainableP only if the budget Bi at each m dm machine is of the order d/ log(m), meaning that the total budget B = i=1 Bi must grow as log m. Part (b) of the corollary shows that the minimax rate is achievable with budgets that match the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Proof: The proof of part (b) follows from techniques of Zhang et al. [23], who show that solving each regression problem separately and then performing a form of approximate averaging, in which each machine uses Bi = d log(mn) bits, achieves the minimax rate up to constant prefactors. To prove part (a), we show that solving an arbitrary Gaussian mean estimation problem can be reduced to solving a specially constructed linear regression problem. This reduction allows us to apply the lower bound from Theorem 2. Given ? ? ?, consider the Gaussian mean model   ?2 Id?d . X (i) = ? + w(i) , where w(i) ? N 0, 2 ?max n Each machine i has its own design matrix A(i) , and we use it to construct a response vector ? 2 b(i) ? Rn . Since ?max (A(i) / n) ? ?max , the matrix ?(i) := ? 2 In?n ? ?2? n A(i) (A(i) )? is max positive semidefinite. Consequently, we may form a response vector via  b(i) = A(i) X (i) + z (i) , z (i) ? N 0, ?(i) is drawn independently of w(i) . (13) The independence of w(i) and z (i) guarantees that b(i) ? N(A(i) ?, ? 2 In?n ), so that the pair (b(i) , A(i) ) is faithful to the regression model (11). Now consider any protocol ? ? Aind (B, P) that can solve any regression problem to within accuracy ?, so that E[k?b ? ?k22 ] ? ? 2 . By the previously described reduction, the protocol ? can also solve the mean estimation problem to accuracy ?, in particular via the pair (A(i) , b(i) ) constructed via expression (13). Combined with this reduction, the corollary thus follows from Theorem 2.  4.2 Probit regression We now turn to the problem of binary classification, in particular considering the probit regression model. As in the previous section, each of m machines has a fixed design matrix A(i) ? Rn?d , where A(i,k) denotes the kth row of A(i) . Machine i receives n binary responses Z (i) = (Z (i,1) , . . . , Z (i,n) ), drawn from the conditional distribution P(Z (i,k) = 1 | A(i,k) , ?) = ?(A(i,k) ?) for some fixed ? ? ? = [?1, 1]d , (14) where ?(?) denotes the standard normal CDF. The log-likelihood of the probit model (14) is concave [4, Exercise 3.54]. Under condition (12) on the design matrices, we have: Corollary 3 Consider the probit model (14) under condition (12). Then (a) There is a universal constant c such that ( ) d m m ind  M (?, P, B1:m ) ? c min mn, 2 , . Pm Bi mn ?max log m ?2max i=1 min{1, d } log m (b) Conversely, given budgets Bi ? d log(mn) for i = 1, . . . , m, there is a universal constant c? such that d c? . Mind (?, P, B1:m ) ? 2 ?min mn Proof: As in the previous case with linear regression, Zhang et al.?s study of distributed convex optimization [23] gives part (b): each machine solves the local probit regression separately, after which each machine sends Bi = d log(mn) bits to average its local solution. To prove part (a), we show that linear regression problems can be solved via estimation in a specially constructed probit model. Consider an arbitrary ? ? ?; assume we have a regression problem of the 6 form (11) with noise variance ? 2 = 1. We construct the binary responses for our probit regression (Z (i,1) , . . . , Z (i,n) ) by  1 if b(i,k) ? 0, (i,k) Z = (15) 0 otherwise. By construction, we have P(Z (i,k) = 1 | A(i) , ?) = ?(A(i,k) ?) as desired for our model (14). By inspection, any protocol ? ? Aind (B, P) solving the probit regression problem provides an estimator with the same error (risk) as the original linear regression problem via the construction (15). Corollary 2 provides the desired lower bound.  5 Proof sketches for main results We now give an outline of the proof of each of our main results (Theorems 1 and 2), providing a more detailed proof sketch for Proposition 2, since it displays techniques common to our arguments. 5.1 Broad outline Most of our lower bounds follow the same basic strategy of reducing an estimation problem to a testing problem. Following this reduction, we then develop inequalities relating the probability of error in the test to the number of bits contained in the messages Yi sent from each machine. Establishing these links is the most technically challenging aspect. Our reduction from estimation to testing is somewhat more general than the classical reductions (e.g., [22, 20]), since we do not map the original estimation problem to a strict test, but rather a test that allows some errors. Let V denote an index set of finite cardinality, where ? ? V indexes a family of probability distributions {P (? | ?)}??V . For each member of this family, associate with a parameter ?? := ?(P (? | ?)) ? ?, where ? denotes the parameter space. In our proofs applicable to d-dimensional problems, we set V = {?1, 1}d , and we index vectors ?? by ? ? V. Now, we sample V uniformly at random from V. Conditional on V = ?, we then sample X from a distribution PX (? | V = ?) satisfying ?? := ?(PX (? | ?)) = ??, where ? > 0 is a fixed quantity that we control. We define dham (?, ? ? ) to be the Hamming distance between ?, ? ? ? V. This construction gives p k?? ? ?? ? k2 = 2? dham (?, ? ? ). Fixing t ? R, the following lemma reduces the problem of estimating ? to finding a point ? ? V within distance t of the random variable V . The result extends a result of Duchi and Wainwright [8]; for completeness we provide a proof in Appendix H. Lemma 1 Let V be uniformly sampled from V. For any estimator ?b and any t ? R, we have sup E[k?b ? ?(P )k22 ] ? ? 2 (?t? + 1) inf P (dham (b ? , V ) > t) , ? b P ?P where the infimum ranges over all testing functions. Lemma 1 shows that minimax lower lower bound can be derived by showing that, for some t > 0 to be chosen, it is difficult to identify V within a radius of t. The following extension of Fano?s inequality [8] can be used to control this type of error probability: Lemma 2 Let V ? X ? Vb be a Markov chain, where V is uniform on V. For any t ? R, we have I(V ; X) + log 2 , P(dham (Vb , V ) > t) ? 1 ? log |V| Nt where Nt := max |{? ? ? V : dham (?, ? ? ) ? t}| is the size of the largest t-neighborhood in V. ??V Lemma 2 allows flexibility in the application of the minimax bounds from Lemma 1. If there is a large set V for which it is easy to control I(V ; X), whereas neighborhoods in V are relatively small (i.e., Nt is small), then we can obtain sharp lower bounds. 7 In a distributed protocol, we have a Markov chain V ? X ? Y , where Y denotes the messages the b ). For different machines send. Based on the messages an arbitrary estimator ?(Y   Y , we consider  Pt d d d t 0 ? t ? ?d/3?, we have Nt = ? =0 ? ? 2 t . Since t ? (de/t) , for t ? d/6 we have   |V| d 2 d d ? > log ? d log 2 ? log 2 ? d log 2 ? log(6e) ? log 2 = d log Nt 6 6 t 21/d 6 6e for d ? 12 (the case d < 12 can be checked directly). Thus, combining Lemma 1 and Lemma 2 b we find that for t = ?d/6?, (using the Markov chain V ? X ? Y ? ?),   i h I(Y ; V ) + log 2 2 2 b . (16) sup E k?(Y ) ? ?(P )k2 ? ? (?d/6? + 1) 1 ? d/6 P ?P With inequality (16) in hand, it then remains to upper bound the mutual information I(Y ; V ), which is the main technical content of each of our results. 5.2 Proof sketch of Proposition 2 Following the general outline of the previous section, let V be uniform on V = {?1, 1}d . Letting 0 < ? ? 1 be a positive number, for i ? [m] we independently sample X (i) ? Rd according to (i) P (Xj = ?j | V = ?) = 1+? 1?? (i) and P (Xj = ??j | V = ?) = . 2 2 (17) Under this distribution, we can give a sharp characterization of the mutual information I(V ; Yi ). In particular, we show in Appendix B that under the sampling distribution (17), there exists a numerical constant c such that I(V ; Yi ) ? c? 2 I(X (i) ; Yi ). (18) Since the random variable X takes discrete values, we have I(X (i) ; Yi ) ? min{H(X (i) ), H(Yi )} ? min{d, H(Yi )}. Since the expected length of message Yi is bounded by Bi , Shannon?s source coding theorem [6] implies that H(Yi ) ? Bi . In particular, inequality (18) establishes a link between the initial distribution (17) and the number of bits used to transmit information, that is, I(V ; Yi ) ? c? 2 min{d, Bi }. (19) We can now apply the quantitative data processing inequality Pm (19) in the bound (16). By the independence of the communication scheme, I(V ; Y1:m ) ? i=1 I(V ; Yi ), and thus inequality (16) simplifies to Pm   c? 2 i=1 min{d, Bi } + log 2 ind 2 M (?, P, B1:m ) ? ? (?d/6? + 1) 1 ? . d/6 Assuming d ? 9, so 1 ? 6 log 2/d > 1/2, we see that choosing ? 2 = min{1, 24c Pm dmin{Bi ,d} } i=1 implies   ? 2 (?d/6? + 1) ?d/6? + 1 d ind Pm M (?, P, B1:m ) ? = min 1, . 4 4 24c i=1 min{Bi , d} Rearranging slightly gives the statement of the proposition. Acknowledgments We thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback and comments. JCD was supported by a Facebook Graduate Fellowship. Our work was supported in part by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Office under grant number W911NF-11-1-0391, and Office of Naval Research MURI grant N00014-11-1-0688. 8 References [1] H. Abelson. Lower bounds on information transfer in distributed computations. Journal of the ACM, 27(2):384?392, 1980. [2] M.-F. Balcan, A. Blum, S. Fine, and Y. Mansour. Distributed learning, communication complexity and privacy. In Proceedings of the Twenty Fifth Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory, 2012. URL http://arxiv.org/abs/1204.3514. [3] K. Ball. An elementary introduction to modern convex geometry. In S. Levy, editor, Flavors of Geometry, pages 1?58. MSRI Publications, 1997. [4] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [5] S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, and J. Eckstein. Distributed optimization and statistical learning via the alternating direction method of multipliers. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 3(1), 2011. [6] T. M. Cover and J. A. Thomas. Elements of Information Theory, Second Edition. Wiley, 2006. [7] O. Dekel, R. Gilad-Bachrach, O. Shamir, and L. Xiao. Optimal distributed online prediction using mini-batches. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:165?202, 2012. [8] J. C. Duchi and M. J. Wainwright. Distance-based and continuum fano inequalities with applications to statistical estimation. arXiv [cs.IT], to appear, 2013. [9] J. C. Duchi, A. Agarwal, and M. J. Wainwright. Dual averaging for distributed optimization: convergence analysis and network scaling. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 57(3): 592?606, 2012. [10] J. C. Duchi, M. I. Jordan, and M. J. Wainwright. Local privacy and statistical minimax rates. arXiv:1302.3203 [math.ST], 2013. URL http://arXiv.org/abs/1302.3203. [11] S. Han and S. Amari. Statistical inference under multiterminal data compression. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 44(6):2300?2324, 1998. [12] I. A. Ibragimov and R. Z. Has?minskii. Statistical Estimation: Asymptotic Theory. SpringerVerlag, 1981. [13] E. Kushilevitz and N. Nisan. Communication Complexity. Cambridge University Press, 1997. [14] E. L. Lehmann and G. Casella. Theory of Point Estimation, Second Edition. Springer, 1998. [15] Z.-Q. Luo. Universal decentralized estimation in a bandwidth constrained sensor network. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51(6):2210?2219, 2005. [16] Z.-Q. Luo and J. N. Tsitsiklis. Data fusion with minimal communication. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 40(5):1551?1563, 1994. [17] R. McDonald, K. Hall, and G. Mann. Distributed training strategies for the structured perceptron. In North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics (NAACL), 2010. [18] J. N. Tsitsiklis. Decentralized detection. In Advances in Signal Processing, Vol. 2, pages 297?344. JAI Press, 1993. [19] A. B. Tsybakov. Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation. Springer, 2009. [20] Y. Yang and A. Barron. Information-theoretic determination of minimax rates of convergence. Annals of Statistics, 27(5):1564?1599, 1999. [21] A. C.-C. Yao. Some complexity questions related to distributive computing (preliminary report). In Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual ACM Symposium on the Theory of Computing, pages 209?213. ACM, 1979. [22] B. Yu. Assouad, Fano, and Le Cam. In Festschrift for Lucien Le Cam, pages 423?435. Springer-Verlag, 1997. [23] Y. Zhang, J. C. Duchi, and M. J. Wainwright. Communication-efficient algorithms for statistical optimization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, 2012. 9
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PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein Inequality Yevgeny Seldin Queensland University of Technology UC Berkeley [email protected] Ilya Tolstikhin Computing Centre Russian Academy of Sciences [email protected] Abstract We present a PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality. The inequality is based on a combination of the PAC-Bayesian bounding technique with an Empirical Bernstein bound. We show that when the empirical variance is significantly smaller than the empirical loss the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality is significantly tighter than the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality of Seeger (2002) and otherwise it is comparable. Our theoretical analysis is confirmed empirically on a synthetic example and several UCI datasets. The PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality is an interesting example of an application of the PAC-Bayesian bounding technique to self-bounding functions. 1 Introduction PAC-Bayesian analysis is a general and powerful tool for data-dependent analysis in machine learning. By now it has been applied in such diverse areas as supervised learning [1?4], unsupervised learning [4, 5], and reinforcement learning [6]. PAC-Bayesian analysis combines the best aspects of PAC learning and Bayesian learning: (1) it provides strict generalization guarantees (like VCtheory), (2) it is flexible and allows the incorporation of prior knowledge (like Bayesian learning), and (3) it provides data-dependent generalization guarantees (akin to Radamacher complexities). PAC-Bayesian analysis provides concentration inequalities for the divergence between expected and empirical loss of randomized prediction rules. For a hypothesis space H a randomized prediction rule associated with a distribution ? over H operates by picking a hypothesis at random according to ? from H each time it has to make a prediction. If ? is a delta-distribution we recover classical prediction rules that pick a single hypothesis h ? H. Otherwise, the prediction strategy resembles Bayesian prediction from the posterior distribution, with a distinction that ? does not have to be the Bayes posterior. Importantly, many of PAC-Bayesian inequalities hold for all posterior distributions ? simultaneously (with high probability over a random draw of a training set). Therefore, PACBayesian bounds can be used in two ways. Ideally, we prefer to derive new algorithms that find the posterior distribution ? that minimizes the PAC-Bayesian bound on the expected loss. However, we can also use PAC-Bayesian bounds in order to estimate the expected loss of posterior distributions ? that were found by other algorithms, such as empirical risk minimization, regularized empirical risk minimization, Bayesian posteriors, and so forth. In such applications PAC-Bayesian bounds can be used to provide generalization guarantees for other methods and can be applied as a substitute for cross-validation in paratemer tuning (since the bounds hold for all posterior distributions ? simultaneously, we can apply the bounds to test multiple posterior distributions ? without suffering from over-fitting, in contrast with extensive applications of cross-validation). There are two forms of PAC-Bayesian inequalities that are currently known to be the tightest depending on a situation. One is the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality of Seeger [7] and the other is the PACBayes-Bernstein inequality of Seldin et. al. [8]. However, the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality is expressed in terms of the true expected variance, which is rarely accessible in practice. Therefore, in order to apply the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality we need an upper bound on the expected variance 1 (or, more precisely, on the average of the expected variances of losses of each hypothesis h ? H weighted according to the randomized prediction rule ?). If the loss is bounded in the [0, 1] interval the expected variance can be upper bounded by the expected loss and this bound can be used to recover the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality from the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality (with slightly suboptimal constants and suboptimal behavior for small sample sizes). In fact, for the binary loss this result cannot be significantly improved (see Section 3). However, when the loss is not binary it may be possible to obtain a tighter bound on the variance, which will lead to a tighter bound on the loss than the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality. For example, in Seldin et. al. [6] a deterministic upper bound on the variance of importance-weighted sampling combined with PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality yielded an order of magnitude improvement relative to application of PAC-Bayes-kl inequality to the same problem. We note that the bound on the variance used by Seldin et. al. [6] depends on specific properties of importance-weighted sampling and does not apply to other problems. In this work we derive the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bound, in which the expected average variance of the loss weighted by ? is replaced by the weighted average of the empirical variance of the loss. Bounding the expected variance by the empirical variance is generally tighter than bounding it by the empirical loss. Therefore, the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bound is generally tighter than the PAC-Bayes-kl bound, although the exact comparison also depends on the divergence between the posterior and the prior and the sample size. In Section 5 we provide an empirical comparison of the two bounds on several synthetic and UCI datasets. The PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bound is derived in two steps. In the first step we combine the PAC-Bayesian bounding technique with the Empirical Bernstein inequality [9] and derive a PACBayesian bound on the variance. The PAC-Bayesian bound on the variance bounds the divergence between averages [weighted by ?] of expected and empirical variances of the losses of hypotheses in H and holds with high probability for all averaging distributions ? simultaneously. In the second step the PAC-Bayesian bound on the variance is substituted into the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality yielding the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bound. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. We start with some formal definitions and review the major PAC-Bayesian bounds in Section 2, provide our main results in Section 3 and their proof sketches in Section 4, and finish with experiments in Section 5 and conclusions in Section 6. Detailed proofs are provided in the supplementary material. 2 Problem Setting and Background We start with providing the problem setting and then give some background on PAC-Bayesian analysis. 2.1 Notations and Definitions We consider supervised learning setting with an input space X , an output space Y, an i.i.d. training sample S = {(Xi , Yi )}ni=1 drawn according to an unknown distribution D on the product-space X ? Y, a loss function ` : Y 2 ? [0, 1], and a hypothesis class H. The elements of H are functions h : X ? Y from the input space to the output space. We use `h (X, Y ) = `(Y, h(X)) to denote the loss of a hypothesis h on a pair (X, Y ). For a fixed hypothesis h ? H denote its expected loss by L(h) = E(X,Y )?D [`h (X, Y )], Pn the empirical loss Ln (h) = n1 h i=1 `h (Xi , Yi ), and the variance of the loss V(h) = 2 i Var(X,Y )?D [`h (X, Y )] = E(X,Y )?D `h (X, Y ) ? E(X,Y )?D [`h (X, Y )] . We define Gibbs regression rule G? associated with a distribution ? over H in the following way: for each point X Gibbs regression rule draws a hypothesis h according to ? and applies it to X. The expected loss of Gibbs regression rule is denoted by L(G? ) = Eh?? h [L(h)]i and the empirical loss is ?(h) to denote the Kullbackdenoted by Ln (G? ) = Eh?? [Ln (h)]. We use KL(?k?) = Eh?? ln ?(h) Leibler divergence between two probability distributions [10]. For two Bernoulli distributions with biases p and q we use kl(qkp) as a shorthand for KL([q, 1 ? q]k[p, 1 ? p]). In the sequel we use E? [?] as a shorthand for Eh?? [?]. 2 2.2 PAC-Bayes-kl bound Before presenting our results we review several existing PAC-Bayesian bounds. The result in Theorem 1 was presented by Maurer [11, Theorem 5] and is one of the tightest known concentration bounds on the expected loss of Gibbs regression rule. Theorem 1 generalizes (and slightly tightens) PAC-Bayes-kl inequality of Seeger [7, Theorem 1] from binary to arbitrary loss functions bounded in the [0, 1] interval. Theorem 1. For any fixed probability distribution ? over H, for any n ? 8 and ? > 0, with probability greater than 1 ? ? over a random draw of a sample S, for all distributions ? over H simultaneously: ?  KL(?k?) + ln 2 ? n kl Ln (G? )kL(G? ) ? . (1) n p kl(qkp)/2, Theorem 1 directly implies (up to minor Since by Pinsker?s inequality |p ? q| ? factors) the more explicit PAC-Bayesian bound of McAllester [12]: s ? KL(?k?) + ln 2 ? n L(G? ) ? Ln (G? ) + , (2) 2n which holds with probability greater than 1 ? ? for all ? simultaneously. We note that kl is easy to invert numerically and for small values of Ln (G? ) (less than 1/4) the implicit bound in (1) is significantly tighter than the explicit bound in (2). This can be seen from another p relaxation suggested by McAllester [2], which follows from (1) by the inequality p ? q + 2qkl(qkp) + 2kl(qkp) for p < q: v   u ?  ?  2 n u 2L (G ) KL(?k?) + ln 2 n 2 KL(?k?) + ln t n ? ? ? + . (3) L(G? ) ? Ln (G? ) + n n From inequality (3) we clearly see that inequality (1) achieves ?fast convergence rate? or, in other ? words, when L(G ? ? ) is zero (or small compared to 1/ n) the bound converges at the rate of 1/n rather than 1/ n as a function of n. 2.3 PAC-Bayes-Bernstein Bound Seldin et. al. [8] introduced a general technique for combining PAC-Bayesian analysis with concentration of measure inequalities and derived the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein bound cited below. (The PAC-Bayes-Bernstein bound of Seldin et. al. holds for martingale sequences, but for simplicity in this paper we restrict ourselves to i.i.d. variables.) Theorem 2. For any fixed distribution ? over H, for any ?1 > 0, and for any fixed c1 > 1, with probability greater than 1 ? ?1 (over a draw of S) we have v   u u (e ? 2)E [V(h)] KL(?k?) + ln ?1 ? t ?1 L(G? ) ? Ln (G? ) + (1 + c1 ) (4) n simultaneously for all distributions ? over H that satisfy s KL(?k?) + ln ??11 ? ? n, (e ? 2)E? [V(h)] where & ?1 = 1 ln ln c1 s (e ? 2)n 4 ln(1/?1 ) !' + 1, and for all other ? we have: L(G? ) ? Ln (G? ) + 2 KL(?k?) + ln ??11 . n Furthermore, the result holds if E? [V(h)] is replaced by an upper bound V? (?), as long as E? [V(h)] ? V? (?) ? 41 for all ?. 3 A few comments on Theorem 2 are in place here. First, we note that Seldin et. al. worked with cumulative losses and variances, whereas we work with normalized losses and variances, which means that their losses and variances differ by a multiplicative factor of n from our definitions. Second, we note that the statement on the possibility of replacing E? [V(h)] by an upper bound is not part of [8, Theorem 8], but it is mentioned and analyzed explicitly in the text. The requirement that V? (?) ? 14 is not mentioned explicitly, but it follows directly from the necessity to preserve the relevant range of the trade-off parameter ? in the proof of the theorem. Since 41 is a trivial upper bound on the variance of a random variable bounded in the [0, 1] interval, the requirement is not a limitation. Finally, we note that since we are working with ?one-sided? variables (namely, the loss is bounded in the [0, 1] interval rather than ?two-sided? [?1, 1] interval, which was considered in [8]) the variance is bounded by 14 (rather than 1), which leads to a slight improvement in the value of ?1 . Since in reality we rarely have access to the expected variance E? [V(h)] the tightness of Theorem 2 entirely depends on the tightness of the upper bound V? (?). If we use the trivial upper bound E? [V(h)] ? 14 the result is roughly equivalent to (2), which is inferior to Theorem 1. Design of a tighter upper bound on E? [V(h)] that holds for all ? simultaneously is the subject of the following section. 3 Main Results The key result of our paper is a PAC-Bayesian bound on the average expected variance E? [V(h)] given in terms of the average empirical variance E? [Vn (h)] = Eh?? [Vn (h)], where Vn (h) = n 2 1 X `h (Xi , Yi ) ? Ln (h) n ? 1 i=1 (5) is an unbiased estimate of the variance V(h). The bound is given in Theorem 3 and it holds with high probability for all distributions ? simultaneously. Substitution of this bound into Theorem 2 yields the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality given in Theorem 4. Thus, the PAC-BayesEmpirical-Bernstein inequality is based on two subsequent applications of the PAC-Bayesian bounding technique. 3.1 PAC-Bayesian bound on the variance Theorem 3 is based on an application of the PAC-Bayesian bounding technique to the difference E? [V(h)] ? E? [Vn (h)]. We note that Vn (h) is a second-order U-statistics [13] and Theorem 3 provides an interesting example of combining PAC-Bayesian analysis with concentration inequalities for self-bounding functions. Theorem 3. For any fixed distribution ? over H, any c2 > 1 and ?2 > 0, with probability greater than 1 ? ?2 over a draw of S, for all distributions ? over H simultaneously: v     u ?2 u E? [Vn (h)] KL(?k?) + ln ?2 2c KL(?k?) + ln 2 t ?2 ?2 E? [V(h)] ? E? [Vn (h)] + (1 + c2 ) + , 2(n ? 1) n?1 (6) where s & !' 1 1 n?1 1 ?2 = ln +1+ . ln c2 2 ln(1/?2 ) 2 Note that (6) closely resembles the explicit bound on L(G? ) in (3). If the empirical variance Vn (h) ? is close to zero the impact of the second term of the bound (that scales with 1/ n) is relatively small and we obtain ?fast convergence rate? of E? [Vn (h)] to E? [V(h)]. Finally, we note that the impact of c2 on ln ?2 is relatively small and so c2 can be taken very close to 1. 3.2 PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bound Theorem 3 controls the average variance E? [V(h)] for all posterior distributions ? simultaneously. By taking ?1 = ?2 = 2? we have the claims of Theorems 2 and 3 holding simultaneously with 4 probability greater than 1 ? ?. Substitution of the bound on E? [V(h)] from Theorem 3 into the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality in Theorem 2 yields the main result of our paper, the PAC-BayesEmpirical-Bernstein inequality, that controls the loss of Gibbs regression rule E? [L(h)] for all posterior distributions ? simultaneously. ? ? Theorem 4. Let  Vn (?) denote the right hand side of (6) (with ?2 = 2 ) and let Vn (?) = 1 min Vn (?), 4 . For any fixed distribution ? over H, for any ? > 0, and for any c1 , c2 > 1, with probability greater than 1 ? ? (over a draw of S) we have: s  (e ? 2)V?n (?) KL(?k?) + ln 2?? 1 L(G? ) ? Ln (G? ) + (1 + c1 ) (7) n simultaneously for all distributions ? over H that satisfy s ? KL(?k?) + ln 2?? 1 ? n, (e ? 2)V?n (?) where ?1 was defined in Theorem 2 (with ?1 = 2? ), and for all other ? we have: L(G? ) ? Ln (G? ) + 2 KL(?k?) + ln 2?? 1 . n Note that all the quantities in Theorem 4 are computable based on the sample. ? As we can see immediately by comparing the O(1/ n) term in PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality (PB-EB for brevity) with the corresponding term in the relaxed version of the PAC-Bayeskl inequality (PB-kl for brevity) in equation (3), the PB-EB inequality can potentially be tighter when E? [Vn (h)] ? (1/(2(e ? 2)))Ln (G? ) ? 0.7Ln (G? ). We also note that when the loss is bounded in the [0,1] interval we have Vn (h) ? (n/(n ? 1))Ln (h) (since `h (X, Y )2 ? `h (X, Y )). Therefore, the PB-EB bound is never much worse than the PB-kl bound and if the empirical variance is small compared to the empirical loss it can be much tighter. We note that for the binary loss (`(y, y 0 ) ? {0, 1}) we have V(h) = L(h)(1 ? L(h)) and in this case the empirical variance cannot be significantly smaller than the empirical loss and PB-EB does not provide an advantage over PB-kl. We also note that the unrelaxed version of the PB-kl inequality in equation (1) has better behavior for very small sample sizes and in such cases PB-kl can be tighter than PB-EB even when the empirical variance is small. To summarize the discussion, when E? [Vn (h)] ? 0.7Ln (G? ) the PB-EB inequality can be significantly tighter than the PB-kl bound and otherwise it is comparable (except for very small sample sizes). In Section 5 we provide a more detailed numerical comparison of the two inequalities. 4 Proofs In this section we present a sketch of a proof of Theorem 3 and a proof of Theorem 4. Full details of the proof of Theorem 3 are provided in the supplementary material. The proof of Theorem 3 is based on the following lemma, which is at the base of all PAC-Bayesian theorems. (Since we could not find a reference, where the lemma is stated explicitly its proof is provided in the supplementary material.) n Lemma 1. For any function fn : H ? (X ? Y) ? R and for any distribution ? over H, such that ? is independent of S, with probability greater than 1 ? ? over a random draw of S, for all distributions ? over H simultaneously: h h ii 0 1 E? [fn (h, S)] ? KL(?k?) + ln + ln E? ES 0 ?Dn efn (h,S ) . (8) ? The smart part is to choose fn (h, S) so that we get the quantities of interest on the left hand side of (8) and at the same time are able to bound the last term on the right hand side of (8). Bounding of the moment generating function (the last term in (8)) is usually done by involving some known concentration of measure results. In the proof of Theorem 3 we use the fact that nVn (h) satisfies the self-bounding property [14]. Specifically, for any ? > 0: h i ?2 n 2 (9) ES?Dn e?(nV(h)?nVn (h))? 2 n?1 V(h) ? 1 5 0.001 1 0.001 0.01 0.1 Average empirical loss 5 0. 1 0.01 1.5 1 0.001 0.5 1 1.5 2 1 2 0.01 2.5 1 0.1 2 Average sample variance 1 2 2 Average sample variance 2.5 0.1 0.5 0.001 0.01 0.1 Average empirical loss (a) n = 1000 (b) n = 4000 Figure 1: The Ratio of the gap between PB-EB and Ln (G? ) to the gap between PB-kl and Ln (G? ) for different values of n, E? [Vn (h)], and Ln (G? ). PB-EB is tighter below the dashed line with label 1. The axes of the graphs are in log scale.  2 n2 (see, for example, [9, Theorem 10]). We take fn (h, S) = ? nV(h) ? nVn (h) ? ?2 n?1 V(h) and substitute fn and the bound on its moment generating function in (9) into (8). To complete the proof it is left to optimize the bound with respect to ?. Since it is impossible to minimize the bound simultaneously for all ? with a single value of ?, we follow the technique suggested by Seldin et. al. and take a grid of ?-s in a form of a geometric progression and apply a union bound over this grid. Then, for each ? we pick a value of ? from the grid, which is the closest to the value of ? that minimizes the bound for the corresponding ?. (The approximation of the optimal ? by the closest ? from the grid is behind the factor c2 in the bound and the ln ?2 factor is the result of the union bound over the grid of ?-s.) Technical details of the derivation are provided in the supplementary material. Proof of Theorem 4. By our choice of ?1 = ?2 = 2? the upper bounds of Theorems 2 and 3 hold simultaneously with probability greater than 1 ? ?. Therefore, with probability greater than 1 ? ?2 we have E? [V(h)] ? V?n (h) ? 41 and the result follows by Theorem 2. 5 Experiments Before presenting the experiments we present a general comparison of the behavior of the PB-EB and PB-kl bounds as a function of Ln (G? ), E? [Vn (h)], and n. In Figure 1.a and 1.b we examine the ratio of the complexity parts of the two bounds PB-EB ? Ln (G? ) , PB-kl ? Ln (G? ) where PB-EB is used to denote the value of the PB-EB bound in equation (7) and PB-kl is used to denote the value of the PB-kl bound in equation (1). The ratio is presented in the Ln (G? ) by E? [Vn (h)] plane for two values of n. In the illustrative comparison we took KL(?k?) = 18 and in all the experiments presented in this section we take c1 = c2 = 1.15 and ? = 0.05. As we wrote in the discussion of Theorem 4, PB-EB is never much worse than PB-kl and when E? [Vn (h)]  Ln (G? ) it can be significantly tighter. In the illustrative comparison in Figure 1, in the worst case the ratio is slightly above 2.5 and in the best case it is slightly above 0.3. We note that as the sample size grows the worst case ratio decreases (asymptotically down to 1.2) and the improvement of the best case ratio is unlimited. As we already said, the advantage of the PB-EB inequality over the PB-kl inequality is most prominent in regression (for classification with zero-one loss it is roughly comparable to PB-kl). Below we provide regression experiments with L1 loss on synthetic data and three datasets from the UCI repository [15]. We use the PB-EB and PB-kl bounds to bound the loss of a regularized empirical 6 risk minimization algorithm. In all our experiments the inputs Xi lie in a d-dimensional unit ball centered at the origin (kXi k2 ? 1) and the outputs Y take values in [?0.5, 0.5]. The hypothesis class HW is defined as n o HW = hw (X) = hw, Xi : w ? Rd , kwk2 ? 0.5 . This construction ensures that the L1 regression loss `(y, y 0 ) = |y ? y 0 | is bounded in the [0, 1] ?1 interval. We use uniform prior distribution over HW defined by ?(w) = V (1/2, d) , where V (r, d) is the volume of a d-dimensional ball with radius r. The posterior distribution ?w is taken to ? ? where be a uniform distribution on a d-dimensional ball of radius  centered at the weight vector w, ? is the solution of the following minimization problem: w n 1X ? = arg min w |Yi ? hw, Xi i| + ?? kwk22 . (10) w n i=1 Note that (10) is a quadratic program and can be solved by various numerical solvers (we used Matlab quadprog). The role of the regularization parameter ?? kwk22 is to ensure that the posterior distribution is supported by HW . We use binary search in order to find the minimal (non-negative) ? is ?? , such that the posterior ?w ? is supported by HW (meaning that the ball of radius  around w within the ball of radius 0.5 around the origin). In all the experiments below we used  = 0.05. 5.1 Synthetic data Our synthetic datasets are produced as follows. We take inputs X1 , . . . , Xn uniformly distributed in a d-dimensional unit ball centered at the origin. Then we define Yi = ?0 (50 ? hw0 , Xi i) + i d with weight vector w0 ? R , centred sigmoid function ?0 (z) = 1+e1?z ? 0.5 which takes values in [?0.5, 0.5], and noise i independent of Xi and uniformly distributed in [?ai , ai ] with   min 0.1, 0.5 ? ?0 (50 ? hw0 , Xi i) , for ?0 (50 ? hw0 , Xi i) ? 0;  ai = min 0.1, 0.5 + ?0 (50 ? hw0 , Xi i) , for ?0 (50 ? hw0 , Xi i) < 0. This design ensures that Yi ? [?0.5, 0.5]. The sigmoid function creates a mismatch between the data generating distribution and the linear hypothesis class. Together with relatively small level of the noise (i ? 0.1) this results in small empirical variance of the loss Vn (h) and medium to high empirical loss Ln (h). Let us denote the j-th coordinate of a vector u ? Rd by uj and the number of nonzero coordinates of u by kuk0 . We choose the weight vector w0 to have only a few nonzero coordinates and consider two settings. In the first setting d ? {2, 5}, kw0 k0 = 2, w10 = 0.12, and w20 = ?0.04 and in the second setting d ? {3, 6}, kw0 k0 = 3, w10 = ?0.08, w20 = 0.05, and w30 = 0.2. For each sample size ranging from 300 to 4000 we averaged the bounds over 10 randomly generated datasets. The results are presented in Figure 2. We see that except for very small sample sizes (n < 1000) the PB-EB bound outperforms the PB-kl bound. Inferior performance for very small sample sizes is a result of domination of the O(1/n) term in the PB-EB bound (7). As soon as n gets large enough this term significantly decreases and PB-EB dominates PB-kl. 5.2 UCI datasets We compare our PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality (7) with the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality (1) on three UCI regression datasets: Wine Quality, Parkinsons Telemonitoring, and Concrete Compressive Strength. For each dataset we centred and normalised both outputs and inputs so that Yi ? [?0.5, 0.5] and kXi k ? 1. The results for 5-fold train-test split of the data together with basic descriptions of the datasets are presented in Table 1. 6 Conclusions and future work We derived a new PAC-Bayesian bound that controls the convergence of averages of empirical variances of losses of hypotheses in H to averages of expected variances of losses of hypothesis in H simultaneously for all averaging distributions ?. This bound is an interesting example of combination 7 0.25 0.2 0.4 0.3 PB?EB PB?kl Train error Test error 0.4 0.3 0.5 Expected loss 0.3 0.5 PB?EB PB?kl Train error Test error Expected loss 0.5 PB?EB PB?kl Train error Test error Expected loss Expected loss 0.4 0.35 0.4 PB?EB PB?kl Train error Test error 0.3 0.2 1000 2000 3000 Sample size 0.2 1000 2000 3000 Sample size (a) d = 2, kw0 k0 = 2 (b) d = 5, kw0 k0 = 2 1000 2000 3000 Sample size (c) d = 3, kw0 k0 = 3 0.2 1000 2000 3000 Sample size (d) d = 6, kw0 k0 = 3 Figure 2: The values of the PAC-Bayes-kl and PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bounds together with the test and train errors on synthetic data. The values are averaged over the 10 random draws of training and test sets. Table 1: Results for the UCI datasets Dataset winequality parkinsons concrete n 6497 5875 1030 d 11 16 8 Train 0.106 ? 0.0005 0.188 ? 0.0014 0.110 ? 0.0008 Test 0.106 ? 0.0022 0.188 ? 0.0055 0.111 ? 0.0038 PB-kl bound 0.175 ? 0.0006 0.266 ? 0.0013 0.242 ? 0.0010 PB-EB bound 0.162 ? 0.0006 0.250 ? 0.0012 0.264 ? 0.0011 of PAC-Bayesian bounding technique with concentration inequalities for self-bounding functions. We applied the bound to derive the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality which is a powerful Bernstein-type inequality outperforming the state-of-the-art PAC-Bayes-kl inequality of Seeger [7] in situations, where the empirical variance is smaller than the empirical loss and otherwise comparable to PAC-Bayes-kl. We also demonstrated an empirical advantage of the new PAC-BayesEmpirical-Bernstein inequality over the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality on several synthetic and real-life regression datasets. Our work opens a number of interesting directions for future research. One of the most important of them is to derive algorithms that will directly minimize the PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein bound. Another interesting direction would be to decrease the last term in the bound in Theorem 3, as it is done in the PAC-Bayes-kl inequality. This can probably be achieved by deriving a PAC-Bayes-kl inequality for the variance. Acknowledgments The authors are thankful to Anton Osokin for useful discussions and to the anonymous reviewers for their comments. This research was supported by an Australian Research Council Australian Laureate Fellowship (FL110100281) and a Russian Foundation for Basic Research grants 13-0700677, 14-07-00847. References [1] John Langford and John Shawe-Taylor. PAC-Bayes & margins. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2002. [2] David McAllester. PAC-Bayesian stochastic model selection. Machine Learning, 51(1), 2003. [3] John Langford. Tutorial on practical prediction theory for classification. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2005. [4] Yevgeny Seldin and Naftali Tishby. PAC-Bayesian analysis of co-clustering and beyond. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11, 2010. [5] Matthew Higgs and John Shawe-Taylor. A PAC-Bayes bound for tailored density estimation. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT), 2010. 8 [6] Yevgeny Seldin, Peter Auer, Franc?ois Laviolette, John Shawe-Taylor, and Ronald Ortner. PACBayesian analysis of contextual bandits. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2011. [7] Matthias Seeger. PAC-Bayesian generalization error bounds for Gaussian process classification. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2002. [8] Yevgeny Seldin, Franc?ois Laviolette, Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi, John Shawe-Taylor, and Peter Auer. PAC-Bayesian inequalities for martingales. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 58, 2012. [9] Andreas Maurer and Massimiliano Pontil. Empirical Bernstein bounds and sample variance penalization. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Learning Theory (COLT), 2009. [10] Thomas M. Cover and Joy A. Thomas. Elements of Information Theory. John Wiley & Sons, 1991. [11] Andreas Maurer. A note on the PAC-Bayesian theorem. www.arxiv.org, 2004. [12] David McAllester. Some PAC-Bayesian theorems. Machine Learning, 37, 1999. [13] A.W. Van Der Vaart. Asymptotic statistics. Cambridge University Press, 1998. [14] St?ephane Boucheron, G?abor Lugosi, and Olivier Bousquet. Concentration inequalities. In O. Bousquet, U.v. Luxburg, and G. R?atsch, editors, Advanced Lectures in Machine Learning. Springer, 2004. [15] A. Asuncion and D.J. Newman. UCI machine http://www.ics.uci.edu/?mlearn/MLRepository.html. 9 learning repository, 2007.
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Regularized M -estimators with nonconvexity: Statistical and algorithmic theory for local optima Martin J. Wainwright Departments of Statistics and EECS University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 [email protected] Po-Ling Loh Department of Statistics University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 [email protected] Abstract We establish theoretical results concerning local optima of regularized M estimators, where both loss and penalty functions are allowed to be nonconvex. Our results show that as long as the loss satisfies restricted strong convexity and the penalty satisfies suitable regularity conditions, any local optimum of the composite objective lies within statistical precision of the true parameter vector. Our theory covers a broad class of nonconvex objective functions, including corrected versions of the Lasso for errors-in-variables linear models and regression in generalized linear models using nonconvex regularizers such as SCAD and MCP. On the optimization side, we show that a simple adaptation of composite gradient descent may be used to compute a global optimum up to the statistical precision stat in log(1/stat ) iterations, the fastest possible rate for any first-order method. We provide simulations to illustrate the sharpness of our theoretical predictions. 1 Introduction Optimization of nonconvex functions is known to be computationally intractable in general [11, 12]. Unlike convex functions, nonconvex functions may possess local optima that are not global optima, and standard iterative methods such as gradient descent and coordinate descent are only guaranteed to converge to local optima. Although statistical results regarding nonconvex M -estimation often only provide guarantees about the accuracy of global optima, it is observed empirically that the local optima obtained by various estimation algorithms seem to be well-behaved. In this paper, we study the question of whether it is possible to certify ?good? behavior, in both a statistical and computational sense, for various nonconvex M -estimators. On the statistical level, we provide an abstract result, applicable to a broad class of (potentially nonconvex) M -estimators, which bounds the distance between any local optimum and the unique minimum of the population risk. Although local optima of nonconvex objectives may not coincide with global optima, our theory shows that any local optimum is essentially as good as a global optimum from a statistical perspective. The class of M -estimators covered by our theory includes the modified Lasso as a special case, but our results are much stronger than those implied by previous work [6]. In addition to nonconvex loss functions, our theory also applies to nonconvex regularizers, shedding new light on a long line of recent work involving the nonconvex SCAD and MCP regularizers [3, 2, 13, 14]. Various methods have been proposed for optimizing convex loss functions with nonconvex penalties [3, 4, 15], but these methods are only guaranteed to generate local optima of the composite objective, which have not been proven to be well-behaved. In contrast, our work provides a set of regularity conditions under which all local optima are guaranteed to lie within a small ball of the population-level minimum, ensuring that standard methods such as projected and composite gradient descent [10] are sufficient for obtaining estimators that lie within statistical error of the 1 truth. In fact, we establish that under suitable conditions, a modified form of composite gradient descent only requires log(1/stat ) iterations to obtain a solution that is accurate up to the statistical precision stat . Notation. For functions f (n) and g(n), we write f (n) - g(n) to mean that f (n) ? cg(n) for some universal constant c ? (0, ?), and similarly, f (n) % g(n) when f (n) ? c0 g(n) for some universal constant c0 ? (0, ?). We write f (n)  g(n) when f (n) - g(n) and f (n) % g(n) hold simultaneously. For a function h : Rp ? R, we write ?h to denote a gradient or subgradient, if it exists. Finally, for q, r > 0, let Bq (r) denote the `q -ball of radius r centered around 0. 2 Problem formulation In this section, we develop some general theory for regularized M -estimators. We first establish notation, then discuss assumptions for nonconvex regularizers and losses studied in our paper. 2.1 Background Given a collection of n samples Z1n = {Z1 , . . . , Zn }, drawn from a marginal distribution P over a space Z, consider a loss function Ln : Rp ? (Z)n ? R. The value Ln (?; Z1n ) serves as a measure of the ?fit? between a parameter vector ? ? Rp and the observed data. This empirical loss function should be viewed as a surrogate to the population risk function L : Rp ? R, given by   L(?) := EZ Ln (?; Z1n ) . Our goal is to estimate the parameter vector ? ? := arg minp L(?) that minimizes the population ??R risk, assumed to be unique. To this end, we consider a regularized M -estimator of the form ?b ? arg min {Ln (?; Z1n ) + ?? (?)} , g(?)?R (1) where ?? : Rp ? R is a regularizer, depending on a tuning parameter ? > 0, which serves to enforce a certain type of structure on the solution. In all cases, we consider regularizers that are Pp separable across coordinates, and with a slight abuse of notation, we write ?? (?) = j=1 ?? (?j ). Our theory allows for possible nonconvexity in both the loss function Ln and the regularizer ?? . Due to this potential nonconvexity, our M -estimator also includes a side constraint g : Rp ? R+ , which we require to be a convex function satisfying the lower bound g(?) ? k?k1 , for all ? ? Rp . Consequently, any feasible point for the optimization problem (1) satisfies the constraint k?k1 ? R, and as long as the empirical loss and regularizer are continuous, the Weierstrass extreme value theorem guarantees that a global minimum ?b exists. 2.2 Nonconvex regularizers We now state and discuss conditions on the regularizer, defined in terms of ?? : R ? R. Assumption 1. (i) The function ?? satisfies ?? (0) = 0 and is symmetric around zero (i.e., ?? (t) = ?? (?t) for all t ? R). (ii) On the nonnegative real line, the function ?? is nondecreasing. (iii) For t > 0, the function t 7? ?? (t) t is nonincreasing in t. (iv) The function ?? is differentiable for all t 6= 0 and subdifferentiable at t = 0, with nonzero subgradients at t = 0 bounded by ?L. (v) There exists ? > 0 such that ??,? (t) := ?? (t) + ?t2 is convex. Many regularizers that are commonly used in practice satisfy Assumption 1, including the `1 -norm, ?? (?) = k?k1 , and the following commonly used nonconvex regularizers: 2 SCAD penalty: This penalty, due to Fan and Li [3], takes the form ? for |t| ? ?, ??|t|, 2 2 ?? (t) := ?(t ? 2a?|t| + ? )/(2(a ? 1)), for ? < |t| ? a?, ? (a + 1)?2 /2, for |t| > a?, where a > 2 is a fixed parameter. Assumption 1 holds with L = 1 and ? = (2) 1 a?1 . MCP regularizer: This penalty, due to Zhang [13], takes the form Z |t|  z  1? ?? (t) := sign(t) ? ? dz, ?b + 0 (3) where b > 0 is a fixed parameter. Assumption 1 holds with L = 1 and ? = 1b . 2.3 Nonconvex loss functions and restricted strong convexity Throughout this paper, we require the loss function Ln to be differentiable, but we do not require it to be convex. Instead, we impose a weaker condition known as restricted strong convexity (RSC). Such conditions have been discussed in previous literature [9, 1], and involve a lower bound on the remainder in the first-order Taylor expansion of Ln . In particular, our main statistical result is based on the following RSC condition: ? log p ? 2 ? k?k21 , ?k?k2 ? 1, (4a) ? ?1 k?k2 ? ?1 n ? ? r h?Ln (? + ?) ? ?Ln (? ), ?i ? ? ? ? ?2 k?k2 ? ?2 log p k?k1 , ?k?k2 ? 1, (4b) n where the ?j ?s are strictly positive constants and the ?j ?s are nonnegative constants. To understand this condition, note that if Ln were actually strongly convex, then both these RSC inequalities would hold with ?1 = ?2 > 0 and ?1 = ?2 = 0. However, in the high-dimensional setting (p  n), the empirical loss Ln can never be strongly convex, but the RSC condition may still hold with strictly positive (?j , ?j ). On the other hand, if Ln is convex (but not strongly convex), the left-hand expression q in inequality (4) is always q nonnegative, so inequalities (4a) and (4b) hold k?k1 ?1 n ?2 n 1 trivially for k?k ? ? and k?k2 ?1 log p k?k2 ?2 log p , respectively. Hence, the RSC inequalities n o q n 1 only enforce a type of strong convexity condition over a cone set of the form k?k ? c k?k2 log p . 3 Statistical guarantees and consequences We now turn to our main statistical guarantees and some consequences for various statistical models. Our theory applies to any vector ?e ? Rp that satisfies the first-order necessary conditions to be a local minimum of the program (1): e + ??? (?), e ? ? ?i e ? 0, h?Ln (?) for all feasible ? ? Rp . (5) When ?e lies in the interior of the constraint set, condition (5) is the usual zero-subgradient condition. 3.1 Main statistical results Our main theorem is deterministic in nature, and specifies conditions on the regularizer, loss function, and parameters, which guarantee that any local optimum ?e lies close to the target vector ? ? = arg minp L(?). Corresponding probabilistic results will be derived in subsequent sections. For ??R proofs and more detailed discussion of the results contained in this paper, see the technical report [7]. Theorem 1. Suppose the regularizer ?? satisfies Assumption 1, Ln satisfies the RSC conditions (4) with ?1 > ?, and ? ? is feasible for the objective. Consider any choice of ? such that ( ) r 2 ?2 log p ? ? max k?Ln (? )k? , ?2 ? ? ? , (6) L n 6RL 3 2 2 2 16R max(?1 ,?2 ) log p. Then any vector ?e satisfying the first-order necessary conand suppose n ? ?22 ditions (5) satisfies the error bounds ? 7?L k 56?Lk ? e k? ? ? k2 ? , and k?e ? ? ? k1 ? , (7) 4(?1 ? ?) 4(?1 ? ?) where k = k? ? k0 . From the bound (7), note that the squared `2 -error grows proportionally with k, the number of non2 zeros in the target q parameter, and with ? . As will be clarified in the following sections, choosing ? proportional to log p n and R proportional to 1 ? will satisfy the requirements of Theorem 1 w.h.p. for many statistical models, in which case we have a squared `2 -error that scales as k log p n , as expected. Remark 1. It is worthwhile to discuss the quantity ?1 ? ? appearing in the denominator of the bound in Theorem 1. Recall that ?1 measures the level of curvature of the loss function Ln , while ? measures the level of nonconvexity of the penalty ?? . Intuitively, the two quantities should play opposing roles in our result: Larger values of ? correspond to more severe nonconvexity of the penalty, resulting in worse behavior of the overall objective (1), whereas larger values of ?1 correspond to more (restricted) curvature of the loss, leading to better behavior. We now develop corollaries for various nonconvex loss functions and regularizers of interest. 3.2 Corrected linear regression We begin by considering the case of high-dimensional linear regression with systematically corrupted observations. Recall that in the framework of ordinary linear regression, we have the model yi = h? ? , xi i + i , | {z } P p j=1 for i = 1, . . . , n, (8) ?j? xij where ? ? ? Rp is the unknown parameter vector and {(xi , yi )}ni=1 are observations. Following Loh and Wainwright [6], assume we instead observe pairs {(zi , yi )}ni=1 , where the zi ?s are systematically corrupted versions of the corresponding xi ?s. Some examples include the following: (a) Additive noise: Observe zi = xi + wi , where wi ?? xi , E[wi ] = 0, and cov[wi ] = ?w . (b) Missing data: For ? ? [0, 1), observe zi ? Rp such that for each component j, we independently observe zij = xij with probability 1 ? ?, and zij = ? with probability ?. We use the population and empirical loss functions L(?) = 1 T ? ?x ? ? ? ?T ?x ?, 2 and Ln (?) = 1 Tb ? ?? ? ? bT ?, 2 (9) b ? where (?, b) are estimators for (?x , ?x ? ? ) depending on {(zi , yi )}ni=1 . Then ? ? = arg min? L(?). From the formulation (1), the corrected linear regression estimator is given by   1 Tb ?b ? arg min ? ?? ? ? bT ? + ?? (?) . (10) g(?)?R 2 We now state a corollary in the case of additive noise (model (a)), where we take T b = Z Z ? ?w , ? n and ? b= ZT y . n (11) b in equation (11) is always negative-definite, so the empirical loss function When p  n, the matrix ? b are applicable to missing data (model Ln previously defined (9) is nonconvex. Other choices of ? (b)), and also lead to nonconvex programs [6]. 4 Corollary 1. Suppose we have i.i.d. observations {(zi , yi )}ni=1 from a corrupted linear model with sub-Gaussian additive noise. Suppose (?, R) are chosen such that ? ? is feasible and r log p c0 c ??? . n R Then given a sample size n ? C max{R2 , k} log p, any local optimum ?e of the nonconvex program (10) satisfies the estimation error bounds ? c00 ?k c0 ? k ? e , and k?e ? ? ? k1 ? , k? ? ? k2 ? ?min (?x ) ? 2? ?min (?x ) ? 2? with probability at least 1 ? c1 exp(?c2 log p), where k? ? k0 = k. q ? Remark 2. When ?? (?) = ?k?k1 and g(?) = k?k1 , taking ?  logn p and R = b0 k for some constant b0 ? k? ? k2 yields the required scaling n % k log p. Hence, the bounds in Corollary 1 agree with bounds in Theorem 1 of Loh and Wainwright [6]. Note, however, that the latter results are stated only for a global minimum ?b of the program (10), whereas Corollary 1 is a much stronger e Theorem 2 of our earlier paper [6] provides an indirect result holding for any local minimum ?. route for establishing similar bounds on k?e ? ? ? k1 and k?e ? ? ? k2 , since the projected gradient descent algorithm may become stuck in local minima. In contrast, our argument here does not rely on an algorithmic proof and applies to a more general class of (possibly nonconvex) penalties. Corollary 1 also has important consequences in the case where pairs {(xi , yi )}ni=1 from the linear model (8) are observed without corruption and ?? is nonconvex. Then the empirical loss Ln is equivalent to the least-squares loss, modulo a constant factor. Much existing work [3, 14] only establishes statistical consistency of global minima and then provides specialized algorithms for obtaining specific local optima that are provably close to global optima. In contrast, our results demonstrate that any optimization algorithm converging to a local optimum suffices. 3.3 Generalized linear models Moving beyond linear regression, we now consider the case where observations are drawn from a generalized linear model (GLM). Recall that a GLM is characterized by the conditional distribution   yi h?, xi i ? ?(xTi ?) P(yi | xi , ?, ?) = exp , c(?) where ? > 0 is a scale parameter and ? is the cumulant function. By standard properties of exponential families [8, 5], we have ? 0 (xTi ?) = E[yi | xi , ?, ?]. In our analysis, we assume there exists ?u > 0 such that ? 00 (t) ? ?u for all t ? R. This boundedness assumption holds in various settings, including linear regression, logistic regression, and multinomial regression. The bound is required to establish both statistical consistency results in the present section and fast global convergence guarantees for our optimization algorithms in Section 4. We will assume that ? ? is sparse and optimize the penalized maximum likelihood program ) ( n X  1 T T ?(xi ?) ? yi xi ? + ?? (?) . ?b ? arg min n i=1 g(?)?R (12) We then have the following corollary: Corollary 2. Suppose we have i.i.d. observations {(xi , yi )}ni=1 from a GLM, where the xi ?s are sub-Gaussian. Suppose (?, R) are chosen such that ? ? is feasible and r c0 log p c ??? . n R 2 e Given a sample size n ? CR log p, any local optimum ? of the nonconvex program (12) satisfies ? c0 ? k c00 ?k ? e k? ? ? k2 ? , and k?e ? ? ? k1 ? , ?min (?x ) ? 2? ?min (?x ) ? 2? with probability at least 1 ? c1 exp(?c2 log p), where k? ? k0 = k. 5 4 Optimization algorithm We now describe how a version of composite gradient descent may be applied to efficiently optimize the nonconvex program (1). We focus on a version of the optimization problem with the side function o 1n g?,? (?) := (13) ?? (?) + ?k?k22 , ? which is convex by Assumption 1. We may then write the program (1) as n o  ?b ? arg min Ln (?) ? ?k?k22 +?g?,? (?) . (14) g?,? (?)?R | {z } ?n L The objective function then decomposes nicely into a sum of a differentiable but nonconvex function and a possibly nonsmooth but convex penalty. Applied to the representation (14), the composite gradient descent procedure of Nesterov [10] produces a sequence of iterates {? t }? t=0 via the updates ( )   2 t ?L ? (? ) 1 n ? ? ? t ? + g?,? (?) , ? t+1 ? arg min (15) 2 ? ? g?,? (?)?R 2 where 1 ? is the stepsize. Define the Taylor error around ?2 in the direction ?1 ? ?2 by T (?1 , ?2 ) := Ln (?1 ) ? Ln (?2 ) ? h?Ln (?2 ), ?1 ? ?2 i. (16) For all vectors ?2 ? B2 (3) ? B1 (R), we require the following form of restricted strong convexity: ? log p ? 2 ? k?1 ? ?2 k21 , ?k?1 ? ?2 k2 ? 3, (17a) ? ?1 k?1 ? ?2 k2 ? ?1 n r T (?1 , ?2 ) ? ? ? ? ?2 k?1 ? ?2 k2 ? ?2 log p k?1 ? ?2 k1 , ?k?1 ? ?2 k2 ? 3. (17b) n The conditions (17) are similar but not identical to the earlier RSC conditions (4). The main difference is that we now require the Taylor difference to be bounded below uniformly over ?2 ? B2 (3) ? B1 (R), as opposed to for a fixed ?2 = ? ? . We also assume an upper bound: log p T (?1 , ?2 ) ? ?3 k?1 ? ?2 k22 + ?3 k?1 ? ?2 k21 , for all ?1 , ?2 ? Rp , (18) n a condition referred to as restricted smoothness in past work [1]. Throughout this section, we assume ?i > ? for all i, where ? is the coefficient ensuring the convexity of the function g?,? from equation (13). Furthermore, we define ? = min{?1 , ?2 } and ? = max{?1 , ?2 , ?3 }. The following theorem applies to any population loss function L for which the population minimizer ? ? is k-sparse and k? ? k2 ? 1, and under the scaling n > Ck log p, for a constant C depending on the ?i ?s and ?i ?s. We show that the composite gradient updates (15) exhibit a type of globally geometric convergence in terms of the quantity ??? 4? 128? k logn p . 1 ? ?(n, p, k) ??? Under the stated scaling on the sample size, we are guaranteed that ? ? (0, 1). Let  0  b ?)     2 log ?(? )??( ?2 log 2 ?RL ? T (?) := + 1+ log log , log(1/?) log(1/?) ?2 where ?(?) := Ln (?) + ?? (?), and define stat := k?b ? ? ? k2 . ? := 1? + ?(n, p, k) , where ?(n, p, k) := (19) (20) Theorem 2. Suppose Ln satisfies the RSC/RSM conditions (17) and (18), and suppose ?? satisfies Assumption 1. Suppose ?b is any global minimum of the program (14), with ( ) r r log p 4 log p ? R ? c, and ? ? ? max k?Ln (? )k? , ? . n L n c2 stat Then for any stepsize ? ? 2 ? max{?3 ? ?, ?} and tolerance ? 2 ? 1?? , we have   4 2 ? k log p 2 b 2 ? k? t ? ?k ?2 + + 128? stat , ?t ? T ? (?). 2 ??? ? n 6 (21) Remark 3. Note that for the optimal choice of tolerance parameter ?  stat , the bound in inequalc2stat ity (21) takes the form ??? , meaning successive iterates are guaranteed to converge to a region b Combining Theorems 1 and 2, we have within statistical accuracy of the true global optimum ?. ! r n o k log p t t ? b , ?t ? T (c0 stat ). max k? ? ?k2 , k? ? ? k2 = O n 5 Simulations In this section, we report the results of simulations for two versions of the loss function Ln , corresponding to linear and logistic regression, and three penalty functions: Lasso, q SCAD, and MCP. In all cases, we chose regularization parameters R = 1.1 ? ? ?? (? ? ) and ? = log p n . Linear regression: In the case of linear regression, we simulated covariates corrupted by additive noise according to the mechanism described in Section 3.2, giving the estimator     1 T XT X yT Z ?b ? arg min ? ? ?w ? ? ? + ?? (?) . (22) n n g?,? (?)?R 2 We generated i.i.d. samples xi ? N (0, I) and i ? N (0, (0.1)2 ), and set ?w = (0.2)2 I. Logistic regression: In the case of logistic regression, we generated i.i.d. samples xi ? N (0, I). Since ?(t) = log(1 + exp(t)), the program (12) becomes ) ( n X 1 {log(1 + exp(h?, xi i) ? yi h?, xi i} + ?? (?) . (23) ?b ? arg min n i=1 g?,? (?)?R We optimized the programs (22) and (23) using the composite gradient updates (15). Figure 1 shows the results of corrected linear regression with Lasso, SCAD, and MCP ? regularizers for three different problem sizes p. In each case, ? ? is a k-sparse vector with k = b pc, where the nonzero entries were generated from a normal distribution and the vector was then rescaled so k? ? k2 = 1. As predicted by Theorem 1, the curves corresponding to the same penalty function stack up nicely n when the estimation error k?b ? ? ? k2 is plotted against the rescaled sample size k log p , and the `2 error decreases to zero as the number of samples increases, showing that the estimators (22) and (23) are statistically consistent. We chose the parameter a = 3.7 for SCAD and b = 3.5 for MCP. comparing penalties for corrected linear regression 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 p=128 p=256 p=512 0.9 l2 norm error 0.4 l2 norm error comparing penalties for logistic regression 1 p=128 p=256 p=512 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 10 20 30 n/(k log p) 40 0.4 0 50 (a) 20 40 60 n/(k log p) 80 100 (b) Figure 1. Plots showing statistical consistency of (a) linear and (b) logistic regression with Lasso, SCAD, and MCP. Each point represents an average over 20 trials. The estimation error k?b ? ? ? k2 n is plotted against the rescaled sample size k log . Lasso, SCAD, and MCP results are represented by p solid, dotted, and dashed lines, respectively. The simulations in Figure 2 depict the optimization-theoretic conclusions of Theorem 2. Each panel shows two different families of curves, corresponding to statistical error (red) and optimization error 7 (blue). The vertical axis measures the `2 -error on a log scale, while the horizontal axis tracks the iteration number. The curves were obtained?by running composite gradient descent from 10 random starting points. We used p = 128, k = b pc, and n = b20k log pc. As predicted by our theory, the optimization error decreases at a linear rate until it falls to the level of statistical error. Panels (b) and (c) provide simulations for two values of the SCAD parameter a; the larger choice a = 3.7 corresponds to a higher level of curvature and produces a tighter cluster of local optima. log error plot for corrected linear regression with MCP, b = 1.5 2 opt err stat err 0 log error plot for corrected linear regression with SCAD, a = 3.7 2 opt err stat err 0 log error plot for corrected linear regression with SCAD, a = 2.5 1 opt err stat err 0 ?2 ?2 ?1 ?8 ||2) ? ?3 t ?4 log(|| ?6 log(|| log(|| t t ? ? * ?4 * ||2) * ||2) ?2 ?6 ?4 ?5 ?6 ?8 ?10 ?12 0 200 400 600 iteration count 800 ?10 0 1000 ?7 200 400 (a) 600 800 iteration count 1000 ?8 0 1200 200 400 (b) 600 800 iteration count 1000 1200 (c) Figure 2. Plots illustrating linear rates of convergence for corrected linear regression with MCP and  SCAD. Red lines depict statistical error log k?b ? ? ? k2 and blue lines depict optimization error  b 2 . As predicted by Theorem 2, the optimization error decreases linearly up to statistical log k? t ? ?k accuracy. Each plot shows the solution trajectory for 10 initializations of composite gradient descent. Panel (a) shows results for MCP; panels (b) and (c) show results for SCAD with different values of a. ? Figure 3 provides analogous results to Figure 2 for logistic regression, using p = 64, k = b pc, and n = b20k log pc. The plot shows solution trajectories for 20 different initializations of composite gradient descent. Again, the log optimization error decreases at a linear rate up to the level of statistical error, as predicted by Theorem 2. Whereas the convex Lasso penalty yields a unique b SCAD and MCP produce multiple local optima. local/global optimum ?, log error plot for logistic regression with Lasso 1 log error plot for logistic regression with SCAD, a = 3.7 0.5 opt err stat err 0 ||2) ?1 ?6 500 1000 iteration count (a) 1500 2000 ? ?1.5 t ? ?5 ?7 0 ?1.5 t ?2 log(|| log(|| t log(|| ?4 ?1 * ||2) ?0.5 * * 2 || ) ? ?3 opt err stat err 0 ?0.5 ?1 ?2 log error plot for logistic regression with MCP, b = 3 0.5 opt err stat err 0 ?2.5 ?2 ?2.5 ?3 ?3 ?3.5 ?3.5 ?4 0 500 1000 iteration count (b) 1500 2000 ?4 0 500 1000 iteration count 1500 2000 (c) Figure 3. Plots showing linear rates of convergence on a log scale for logistic regression. Red lines depict statistical error and blue lines depict optimization error. (a) Lasso penalty. (b) SCAD penalty. (c) MCP. Each plot shows the solution trajectory for 20 initializations of composite gradient descent. 6 Discussion We have analyzed theoretical properties of local optima of regularized M -estimators, where both the loss and penalty function are allowed to be nonconvex. Our results are the first to establish that all local optima of such nonconvex problems are close to the truth, implying that any optimization method guaranteed to converge to a local optimum will provide statistically consistent solutions. We show that a variant of composite gradient descent may be used to obtain near-global optima in linear time, and verify our theoretical results with simulations. Acknowledgments PL acknowledges support from a Hertz Foundation Fellowship and an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. MJW and PL were also partially supported by grants NSF-DMS-0907632 and AFOSR09NL184. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for helpful feedback. 8 References [1] A. Agarwal, S. Negahban, and M. J. Wainwright. Fast global convergence of gradient methods for high-dimensional statistical recovery. Annals of Statistics, 40(5):2452?2482, 2012. [2] P. Breheny and J. Huang. Coordinate descent algorithms for nonconvex penalized regression, with applications to biological feature selection. Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(1):232?253, 2011. [3] J. Fan and R. Li. Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96:1348?1360, 2001. [4] D. R. Hunter and R. Li. Variable selection using MM algorithms. Annals of Statistics, 33(4):1617?1642, 2005. [5] E.L. Lehmann and G. Casella. Theory of Point Estimation. Springer Verlag, 1998. [6] P. Loh and M.J. Wainwright. High-dimensional regression with noisy and missing data: Provable guarantees with non-convexity. Annals of Statistics, 40(3):1637?1664, 2012. [7] P. Loh and M.J. Wainwright. Regularized M -estimators with nonconvexity: Statistical and algorithmic theory for local optima. arXiv e-prints, May 2013. Available at http://arxiv. org/abs/1305.2436. [8] P. McCullagh and J. A. Nelder. Generalized Linear Models (Second Edition). London: Chapman & Hall, 1989. [9] S. Negahban, P. Ravikumar, M. J. Wainwright, and B. Yu. A unified framework for highdimensional analysis of M -estimators with decomposable regularizers. Statistical Science, 27(4):538?557, December 2012. See arXiv version for lemma/propositions cited here. [10] Y. Nesterov. Gradient methods for minimizing composite objective function. CORE Discussion Papers 2007076, Universit Catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), 2007. [11] Y. Nesterov and A. Nemirovskii. Interior Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming. SIAM studies in applied and numerical mathematics. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1987. [12] S. A. Vavasis. Complexity issues in global optimization: A survey. In Handbook of Global Optimization, pages 27?41. Kluwer, 1995. [13] C.-H. Zhang. Nearly unbiased variable selection under minimax concave penalty. Annals of Statistics, 38(2):894?942, 2010. [14] C.-H. Zhang and T. Zhang. A general theory of concave regularization for high-dimensional sparse estimation problems. Statistical Science, 27(4):576?593, 2012. [15] H. Zou and R. Li. One-step sparse estimates in nonconcave penalized likelihood models. Annals of Statistics, 36(4):1509?1533, 2008. 9
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More data speeds up training time in learning halfspaces over sparse vectors Amit Daniely Department of Mathematics The Hebrew University Jerusalem, Israel Nati Linial School of CS and Eng. The Hebrew University Jerusalem, Israel Shai Shalev-Shwartz School of CS and Eng. The Hebrew University Jerusalem, Israel Abstract The increased availability of data in recent years has led several authors to ask whether it is possible to use data as a computational resource. That is, if more data is available, beyond the sample complexity limit, is it possible to use the extra examples to speed up the computation time required to perform the learning task? We give the first positive answer to this question for a natural supervised learning problem ? we consider agnostic PAC learning of halfspaces over 3-sparse vec tors in {?1, 1, 0}n . This class is inefficiently learnable using O n/2 examples. Our main contribution is a novel, non-cryptographic, methodology for establishing computational-statistical gaps, which allows us to show that, under a widely believed assumption that refuting random 3CNFformulas is hard, it is impossible to efficiently learn this class using only O n/2 examples.  We further show that under stronger hardness assumptions, even O n1.499 /2 examples do not suffice. On the other  hand, we show a new algorithm that learns this class efficiently ? n2 /2 examples. This formally establishes the tradeoff between sample using ? and computational complexity for a natural supervised learning problem. 1 Introduction In the modern digital period, we are facing a rapid growth of available datasets in science and technology. In most computing tasks (e.g. storing and searching in such datasets), large datasets are a burden and require more computation. However, for learning tasks the situation is radically different. A simple observation is that more data can never hinder you from performing a task. If you have more data than you need, just ignore it! A basic question is how to learn from ?big data?. The statistical learning literature classically studies questions like ?how much data is needed to perform a learning task?? or ?how does accuracy improve as the amount of data grows?? etc. In the modern, ?data revolution era?, it is often the case that the amount of data available far exceeds the information theoretic requirements. We can wonder whether this, seemingly redundant data, can be used for other purposes. An intriguing question in this vein, studied recently by several researchers ([Decatur et al., 1998, Servedio., 2000, Shalev-Shwartz et al., 2012, Berthet and Rigollet, 2013, Chandrasekaran and Jordan, 2013]), is the following Question 1: Are there any learning tasks in which more data, beyond the information theoretic barrier, can provably be leveraged to speed up computation time? The main contributions of this work are: 1 ? Conditioning on the hardness of refuting random 3CNF formulas, we give the first example of a natural supervised learning problem for which the answer to Question 1 is positive. ? To prove this, we present a novel technique to establish computational-statistical tradeoffs in supervised learning problems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such a result that is not based on cryptographic primitives. Additional contributions are non trivial efficient  2  algorithms for learning halfspaces over 2-sparse  n ? ? and 3-sparse vectors using O 2 and O n2 examples respectively. The natural learning problem we consider is the task of learning the class of halfspaces over k-sparse vectors. Here, the instance space is the space of k-sparse vectors, Cn,k = {x ? {?1, 1, 0}n | |{i | xi 6= 0}| ? k} , and the hypothesis class is halfspaces over k-sparse vectors, namely Hn,k = {hw,b : Cn,k ? {?1} | hw,b (x) = sign(hw, xi + b), w ? Rn , b ? R} , where h?, ?i denotes the standard inner product in Rn . We consider the standard setting of agnostic PAC learning, which models the realistic scenario where the labels are not necessarily fully determined by some hypothesis from Hn,k . Note that in the realizable case, i.e. when some hypothesis from Hn,k has zero error, the problem of learning halfspaces is easy even over Rn . In addition, we allow improper learning (a.k.a. representation independent learning), namely, the learning algorithm is not restricted to output a hypothesis from Hn,k , but only should output a hypothesis whose error is not much larger than the error of the best hypothesis in Hn,k . This gives the learner a lot of flexibility in choosing an appropriate representation of the problem. This additional freedom to the learner makes it much harder to prove lower bounds in this model. Concretely, it is not clear how to use standard reductions from NP hard problems in order to establish lower bounds for improper learning (moreover, Applebaum et al. [2008] give evidence that such simple reductions do not exist). The classes Hn,k and similar classes have been studied by several authors (e.g. Long. and Servedio [2013]). They naturally arise in learning scenarios in which the set of all possible features is very large, but each example has only a small number of active features. For example: ? Predicting an advertisement based on a search query: Here, the possible features of each instance are all English words, whereas the active features are only the set of words given in the query. ? Learning Preferences [Hazan et al., 2012]: Here, we have n players. A ranking of the players is a permutation ? : [n] ? [n] (think of ?(i) as the rank of the i?th player). Each ranking induces a preference h? over the ordered pairs, such that h? (i, j) = 1 iff i is ranked higher that j. Namely,  1 ?(i) > ?(j) h? (i, j) = ?1 ?(i) < ?(j) The objective here is to learn the class, Pn , of all possible preferences. The problem of learning preferences is related to the problem of learning Hn,2 : if we associate each pair (i, j) with the vector in Cn,2 whose i?th coordinate is 1 and whose j?th coordinate is ?1, it is not hard to see that Pn ? Hn,2 : for every ?, h? = hw,0 for the vector w ? Rn , given by wi = ?(i). Therefore, every upper bound for Hn,2 implies an upper bound for Pn , while every lower bound for Pn implies a lower bound for Hn,2 . Since VC(Pn ) = n and VC(Hn,2 ) = n + 1, the information theoretic barrier to learn these classesis ? n2 . In Hazan et al. [2012] it was shown that Pn can be efficiently learnt using O examples. In section 4, we extend this result to Hn,2 . n log3 (n) 2 We will show a positive answer to Question 1 for the class Hn,3 . To do so, we show1 the following: 1 In fact, similar results hold for every constant k ? 3. Indeed, since Hn,3 ? Hn,k for every k ? 3, it is trivial that item 3 below holds for every k ? 3. The upper bound given in item 1 holds for every k. For item 2, 2 1. Ignoring computational issues, it is possible to learn the class Hn,3 using O n 2  examples. 2. It is also to efficiently learn Hn,3 if we are provided with a larger training set (of  possible  2 n ? 2 ). This is formalized in Theorem 3.1. size ?  3. It is impossible to efficiently learn Hn,3 , if we are only provided with a training set of  size O n2 under Feige?s assumption regarding the hardness of refuting random 3CNF formulas [Feige, 2002]. Furthermore, for every ? ? [0, 0.5), it is impossible to learn  efficiently with a training set of size O is formalized in Theorem 4.1. n1+? 2 under a stronger hardness assumption. This A graphical illustration of our main results is given below: runtime 2O(n) > poly(n) nO(1) examples n 1.5 2 n n The proof of item 1 above is easy ? simply note that Hn,3 has VC dimension n + 1. Item 2 is proved in section 4, relying on the results of Hazan et al. [2012]. We note, however, that a weaker result, that still suffices for answering Question 1 in the affirmative, can be proven using a naive improper learning   algorithm. In particular, we show below how to learn Hn,3 efficiently with a sample of ? n3 2 examples. The idea is to replace the class Hn,3 with the class {?1}Cn,3 containing all functions from Cn,3 to {?1}. Clearly, this class contains Hn,3 . In addition, we can efficiently find a function f that minimizes the empirical training error over a training set S as follows: For every x ? Cn,k , if x does not appear at all in the training set we will set f (x) arbitrarily to 1. Otherwise, we will set f (x) to be the majority of the labels in the training set that correspond to x. Finally, note that the VC dimension of {?1}Cn,3 is smaller than n3 (since |Cn,3 | <  n3 ). Hence, standard generalization results (e.g. Vapnik [1995]) implies that a training set size of ? n3 2 suffices for learning this class. Item 3 is shown in section 3 by presenting a novel technique for establishing statisticalcomputational tradeoffs. The class Hn,2 . Our main result gives a positive answer to Question 1 for the task of improperly learning Hn,k for k ? 3. A natural question is what happens for k = 2 and k = 1. Since VC(Hn,1 ) = VC(Hn,2 ) = n + 1, the information theoretic barrier for learning these classes is ? n2 . In section 4, we prove that Hn,2 (and, consequently, Hn,1 ? Hn,2 ) can be learnt using  3 O n log2 (n) examples, indicating that significant computational-statistical tradeoffs start to manifest themselves only for k ? 3. 1.1 Previous approaches, difficulties, and our techniques [Decatur et al., 1998] and [Servedio., 2000] gave positive answers to Question 1 in the realizable PAC learning model. Under cryptographic assumptions, they showed that there exist binary learning problems, in which more data can provably be used to speed up training time. [Shalev-Shwartz et al., 2012] showed a similar result for the agnostic PAC learning model. In all of these papers, the main idea is to construct a hypothesis class based on a one-way function. However, the constructed  k it is not hard to show that Hn,k can be learnt using a sample of ? n2 examples by a naive improper learning algorithm, similar to the algorithm we describe in this section for k = 3. 3 classes are of a very synthetic nature, and are of almost no practical interest. This is mainly due to the construction technique which is based on one way functions. In this work, instead of using cryptographic assumptions, we rely on the hardness of refuting random 3CNF formulas. The simplicity and flexibility of 3CNF formulas enable us to derive lower bounds for natural classes such as halfspaces. Recently, [Berthet and Rigollet, 2013] gave a positive answer to Question 1 in the context of unsupervised learning. Concretely, they studied the problem of sparse PCA, namely, finding a sparse vector that maximizes the variance of an unsupervised data. Conditioning on the hardness of the planted clique problem, they gave a positive answer to Question 1 for sparse PCA. Our work, as well as the previous work of Decatur et al. [1998], Servedio. [2000], Shalev-Shwartz et al. [2012], studies Question 1 in the supervised learning setup. We emphasize that unsupervised learning problems are radically different than supervised learning problems in the context of deriving lower bounds. The main reason for the difference is that in supervised learning problems, the learner is allowed to employ improper learning, which gives it a lot of power in choosing an adequate representation of the data. For example, the upper bound we have derived for the class of sparse halfspaces switched from representing hypotheses as halfspaces to representation of hypotheses as tables over Cn,3 , which made the learning problem easy from the computational perspective. The crux of the difficulty in constructing lower bounds is due to this freedom of the learner in choosing a convenient representation. This difficulty does not arise in the problem of sparse PCA detection, since there the learner must output a good sparse vector. Therefore, it is not clear whether the approach given in [Berthet and Rigollet, 2013] can be used to establish computational-statistical gaps in supervised learning problems. 2 Background and notation For hypothesis class H ? {?1}X and a set Y ? X, we define the restriction of H to Y by H|Y = {h|Y | h ? H}. We denote by J = Jn the all-ones n ? n matrix. We denote the j?th vector in the standard basis of Rn by ej . 2.1 Learning Algorithms For h : Cn,3 ? {?1} and a distribution D on Cn,3 ? {?1} we denote the error of h w.r.t. D by ErrD (h) = Pr(x,y)?D (h(x) 6= y). For H ? {?1}Cn,3 we denote the error of H w.r.t. D by m ErrD (H) = minh?H ErrD (h). For a sample S ? (Cn,3 ? {?1}) we denote by ErrS (h) (resp. ErrS (H)) the error of h (resp. H) w.r.t. the empirical distribution induces by the sample S. m A learning algorithm, L, receives a sample S ? (Cn,3 ? {?1}) and return a hypothesis L(S) : Cn,3 ? {?1}. We say that L learns Hn,3 using m(n, ) examples if,2 for every distribution D on Cn,3 ? {?1} and a sample S of more than m(n, ) i.i.d. examples drawn from D, 1 10 The algorithm L is efficient if it runs in polynomial time in the sample size and returns a hypothesis that can be evaluated in polynomial time. Pr (ErrD (L(S)) > ErrD (H3,n ) + ) < S 2.2 Refuting random 3SAT formulas We frequently view a boolean assignment to variables x1 , . . . , xn as a vector in Rn . It is convenient, therefore, to assume that boolean variables take values in {?1} and to denote negation by ? ? ? (instead of the usual ???). An n-variables 3CNF clause is a boolean formula of the form C(x) = (?1)j1 xi1 ? (?1)j2 xi2 ? (?1)j1 xi3 , x ? {?1}n An n-variables 3CNF formula is a boolean formula of the form ?(x) = ?m i=1 Ci (x) , 2 For simplicity, we require the algorithm to succeed with probability of at least 9/10. This can be easily amplified to probability of at least 1 ? ?, as in the usual definition of agnostic PAC learning, while increasing the sample complexity by a factor of log(1/?). 4 where every Ci is a 3CNF clause. Define the value, Val(?), of ? as the maximal fraction of clauses that can be simultaneously satisfied. If Val(?) = 1, we say the ? is satisfiable. By 3CNFn,m we denote the set of 3CNF formulas with n variables and m clauses. Refuting random 3CNF formulas has been studied extensively (see e.g. a special issue of TCS Dubios et al. [2001]). It is known that for large enough ? (? = 6 will suffice) a random formula in 3CNFn,?n is not satisfiable with probability 1 ? o(1). Moreover, for every 0 ?  < 14 , and a large enough ? = ?(), the value of a random formula 3CNFn,?n is ? 1 ?  with probability 1 ? o(1). The problem of refuting random 3CNF concerns efficient algorithms that provide a proof that a random 3CNF is not satisfiable, or far from being satisfiable. This can be thought of as a game between an adversary and an algorithm. The adversary should produce a 3CNF-formula. It can either produce a satisfiable formula, or, produce a formula uniformly at random. The algorithm should identify whether the produced formula is random or satisfiable. Formally, let ? : N ? N and 0 ?  < 14 . We say that an efficient algorithm, A, -refutes random 3CNF with ratio ? if its input is ? ? 3CNFn,n?(n) , its output is either ?typical? or ?exceptional? and it satisfies: ? Soundness: If Val(?) ? 1 ? , then Pr Rand. coins of A (A(?) = ?exceptional?) ? 3 4 ? Completeness: For every n, (A(?) = ?typical?) ? 1 ? o(1) Pr Rand. coins of A, ??Uni(3CNFn,n?(n) ) By a standard repetition argument, the probability of 34 can be amplified to 1 ? 2?n , while efficiency is preserved. Thus, given such an (amplified) algorithm, if A(?) = ?typical?, then with confidence of 1 ? 2?n we know that Val(?) < 1 ? . Since for random ? ? 3CNFn,n?(n) , A(?) = ?typical? with probability 1 ? o(1), such an algorithm provides, for most 3CNF formulas a proof that their value is less that 1 ? . Note that an algorithm that -refutes random 3CNF with ratio ? also 0 -refutes random 3CNF with ratio ? for every 0 ? 0 ? . Thus, the task of refuting random 3CNF?s gets easier as  gets smaller. Most of the research concerns the case  = 0. Here, it is not hard to see that the task is getting easier as ? grows.?The best known algorithm [Feige and Ofek, 2007] 0-refutes random 3CNF with ratio ?(n) = ?( n). In Feige [2002] it was conjectured that for constant ? no efficient algorithm can provide a proof that a random 3CNF is not satisfiable: Conjecture 2.1 (R3SAT hardness assumption ? [Feige, 2002]). For every  > 0 and for every large enough integer ? > ?0 () there exists no efficient algorithm that -refutes random 3CNF formulas with ratio ?. In fact, for all we know, the following conjecture may be true for every 0 ? ? ? 0.5. Conjecture 2.2 (?-R3SAT hardness assumption). For every  > 0 and for every integer ? > ?0 () there exists no efficient algorithm that -refutes random 3CNF with ratio ? ? n? . Note that Feige?s conjecture is equivalent to the 0-R3SAT hardness assumption. 3 Lower bounds for learning Hn,3 Theorem 3.1 (main). Let 0 ? ? ? 0.5. If the ?-R3SAT hardness assumption (conjecture 2.2) is  1+? true, then there exists no efficient learning algorithm that learns the class Hn,3 using O n 2 examples. In the proof of Theorem 3.1 we rely on the validity of a conjecture, similar to conjecture 2.2 for 3variables majority formulas. Following an argument from [Feige, 2002] (Theorem 3.2) the validity of the conjecture on which we rely for majority formulas follows the validity of conjecture 2.2. 5 Define ?(x1 , x2 , x3 ) ? {?1}3 , MAJ(x1 , x2 , x3 ) := sign(x1 + x2 + x3 ) An n-variables 3MAJ clause is a boolean formula of the form C(x) = MAJ((?1)j1 xi1 , (?1)j2 xi2 , (?1)j1 xi3 ), x ? {?1}n An n-variables 3MAJ formula is a boolean formula of the form ?(x) = ?m i=1 Ci (x) where the Ci ?s are 3MAJ clauses. By 3MAJn,m we denote the set of 3MAJ formulas with n variables and m clauses. Theorem 3.2 ([Feige, 2002]). Let 0 ? ? ? 0.5. If the ?-R3SAT hardness assumption is true, then for every  > 0 and for every large enough integer ? > ?0 () there exists no efficient algorithm with the following properties. ? Its input is ? ? 3MAJn,?n1+? , and its output is either ?typical? or ?exceptional?. ? If Val(?) ? 3 4 ? , then Pr Rand. coins of A (A(?) = ?exceptional?) ? 3 4 ? For every n, (A(?) = ?typical?) ? 1 ? o(1) Pr Rand. coins of A, ??Uni(3MAJn,?n1+? ) Next, we prove Theorem 3.1. In fact, we will prove a slightly stronger result. Namely, define d d the subclass Hn,3 ? Hn,3 , of homogenous halfspaces with binary weights, given by Hn,3 = n {hw,0 | w ? {?1} }. As we show, underthe ?-R3SAT hardness assumption, it is impossible to  efficiently learn this subclass using only O n1+? 2 examples. Proof idea: We will reduce the task of refuting random 3MAJ formulas with linear number of d clauses to the task of (improperly) learning Hn,3 with linear number of samples. The first step will be to construct a transformation that associates every 3MAJ clause with two examples in Cn,3 ? {?1}, d and every assignment with a hypothesis in Hn,3 . As we will show, the hypothesis corresponding to an assignment ? is correct on the two examples corresponding to a clause C if and only if ? satisfies C. With that interpretation at hand, every 3MAJ formula ? can be thought of as a distribution D? on Cn,3 ? {?1}, which is the empirical distribution induced by ??s clauses. It holds furthermore d that ErrD? (Hn,3 ) = 1 ? Val(?). d Suppose now that we are given an efficient learning algorithm for Hn,3 , that uses ? n2 examples, for some ? > 0. To construct an efficient algorithm for refuting 3MAJ-formulas, we simply feed n the learning algorithm with ? 0.01 2 examples drawn from D? and answer ?exceptional? if the error of the hypothesis returned by the algorithm is small. If ? is (almost) satisfiable, the algorithm is guaranteed to return a hypothesis with a small error. On the other hand, if ? is far from being d satisfiable, ErrD? (Hn,3 ) is large. If the learning algorithm is proper, then it must return a hypothesis d from Hn,3 and therefore it would necessarily return a hypothesis with a large error. This argument d can be used to show that, unless N P = RP , learning Hn,3 with a proper efficient algorithm is impossible. However, here we want to rule out improper algorithms as well. The crux of the construction is that if ? is random, no algorithm (even improper and even inefficient) can return a hypothesis with a small error. The reason for that is that since the sample provided n to the algorithm consists of only ? 0.01 2 samples, the algorithm won?t see most of ??s clauses, and, consequently, the produced hypothesis h will be independent of them. Since these clauses are random, h is likely to err on about half of them, so that ErrD? (h) will be close to half! To summarize we constructed an efficient algorithm with the following properties: if ? is almost satisfiable, the algorithm will return a hypothesis with a small error, and then we will declare ?exceptional?, while for random ?, the algorithm will return a hypothesis with a large error, and we will declare ?typical?. 6 Our construction crucially relies on the restriction to learning algorithm with a small sample complexity. Indeed, if the learning algorithm obtains more than n1+? examples, then it will see most of ??s clauses, and therefore it might succeed in ?learning? even when the source of the formula is random. Therefore, we will declare ?exceptional? even when the source is random. Proof. (of theorem 3.1) Assume by way of contradiction that the ?-R3SAT hardness assumption  1+? is  true and yet there exists an efficient learning algorithm that learns the class Hn,3 using O n 2 1 examples. Setting  = 100 , we conclude that there exists an efficient algorithm L and a constant ? > 0 such that given a sample S of more than ? ? n1+? examples drawn from a distribution D on Cn,3 ? {?1}, returns a classifier L(S) : Cn,3 ? {?1} such that ? L(S) can be evaluated efficiently. ? W.p. ? 3 4 over the choice of S, ErrD (L(S)) ? ErrD (Hn,3 ) + 1 100 . 1 Fix ? large enough such that ? > 100? and the conclusion of Theorem 3.2 holds with  = 100 . We will construct an algorithm, A, contradicting Theorem 3.2. On input ? ? 3MAJn,?n1+? consisting of the 3MAJ clauses C1 , . . . , C?n1+? , the algorithm A proceeds as follows 1. Generate a sample S consisting of ?n1+? examples as follows. For every clause, Ck = MAJ((?1)j1 xi1 , (?1)j2 xi2 , (?1)j3 xi3 ), generate an example (xk , yk ) ? Cn,3 ? {?1} by choosing b ? {?1} at random and letting ! 3 X (xk , yk ) = b ? (?1)jl eil , 1 ? Cn,3 ? {?1} . l=1 For example, if n = 6, the clause is MAJ(?x2 , x3 , x6 ) and b = ?1, we generate the example ((0, 1, ?1, 0, 0, ?1), ?1) 1+? 2. Choose a sample S1 consisting of ?n 100 (with repetitions) examples from S. ? ? ? n1+? examples by choosing at random 3. Let h = L(S1 ). If ErrS (h) ? 38 , return ?exceptional?. Otherwise, return ?typical?. We claim that A contradicts Theorem 3.2. Clearly, A runs in polynomial time. It remains to show that ? If Val(?) ? 3 4 ? 1 100 , then Pr Rand. coins of A (A(?) = ?exceptional?) ? 3 4 ? For every n, (A(?) = ?typical?) ? 1 ? o(1) Pr Rand. coins of A, ??Uni(3MAJn,?n1+? ) Assume first that ? ? 3MAJn,?n1+? is chosen at random. Given the sample S1 , the sample S2 := S \ S1 is a sample of |S2 | i.i.d. examples which are independent from the sample S1 , and hence also from h = L(S1 ). Moreover, for every example (xk , yk ) ? S2 , yk is a Bernoulli random variable with parameter 21 which is independent of xk . To see that, note that an example whose instance is xk can be generated by exactly two clauses ? one corresponds to yk = 1, while the other corresponds to yk = ?1 (e.g., the instance (1, ?1, 0, 1) can be generated from the clause MAJ(x1 , ?x2 , x4 ) and b = 1 or the clause MAJ(?x1 , x2 , ?x4 ) and b = ?1). Thus, given the instance xk , the probability that yk = 1 is 21 , independent of xk . 7  1 It follows that ErrS2 (h) is an average of at least 1 ? 100 ?n1+? independent Bernoulli random 1 variable. By Chernoff?s bound, with probability ? 1 ? o(1), ErrS2 (h) > 21 ? 100 . Thus,       1 1 1 3 1 ErrS2 (h) ? 1 ? ? ? > ErrS (h) ? 1 ? 100 100 2 100 8 And the algorithm will output ?typical?. 1 Assume now that Val(?) ? 43 ? 100 and let ? ? {?1}n be an assignment that indicates that. Let ? ? Hn,3 be the hypothesis ?(x) = sign (h?, xi). It can be easily checked that ?(xk ) = yk if and 1 , it follows that only if ? satisfies Ck . Since Val(?) ? 43 ? 100 ErrS (?) ? 1 1 + . 4 100 Thus, ErrS (Hn,3 ) ? By the choice of L, with probability ? 1 ? 1 4 ErrS (h) ? 1 1 + . 4 100 = 43 , 1 1 1 3 + + < 4 100 100 8 and the algorithm will return ?exceptional?. 4 Upper bounds for learning Hn,2 and Hn,3 The following theorem derives upper bounds for learning Hn,2 and Hn,3 . Its proof relies on results from Hazan et al. [2012] about learning ?-decomposable matrices, and due to the lack of space is given in the appendix. Theorem 4.1.   3 ? There exists an efficient algorithm that learns Hn,2 using O n log2 (n) examples ? There exists an efficient algorithm that learns Hn,3 using O 5  n2 log3 (n) 2  examples Discussion We formally established a computational-sample complexity tradeoff for the task of (agnostically and improperly) PAC learning of halfspaces over 3-sparse vectors. Our proof of the lower bound relies on a novel, non cryptographic, technique for establishing such tradeoffs. We also derive a new non-trivial upper bound for this task. Open questions. An obvious open question is to close the gap between  the lower  and upper bounds. ? n1.5 We conjecture that Hn,3 can be learnt efficiently using a sample of O examples. Also, we 2 believe that our new proof technique can be used for establishing computational-sample complexity tradeoffs for other natural learning problems. Acknowledgements: Amit Daniely is a recipient of the Google Europe Fellowship in Learning Theory, and this research is supported in part by this Google Fellowship. Nati Linial is supported by grants from ISF, BSF and I-Core. Shai Shalev-Shwartz is supported by the Israeli Science Foundation grant number 590-10. References Benny Applebaum, Boaz Barak, and David Xiao. On basing lower-bounds for learning on worstcase assumptions. In Foundations of Computer Science, 2008. FOCS?08. IEEE 49th Annual IEEE Symposium on, pages 211?220. IEEE, 2008. 8 Quentin Berthet and Philippe Rigollet. Complexity theoretic lower bounds for sparse principal component detection. In COLT, 2013. Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi, Alex Conconi, and Claudio Gentile. On the generalization ability of on-line learning algorithms. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 50:2050?2057, 2001. Venkat Chandrasekaran and Michael I. Jordan. Computational and statistical tradeoffs via convex relaxation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013. S. Decatur, O. Goldreich, and D. Ron. Computational sample complexity. SIAM Journal on Computing, 29, 1998. O. Dubios, R. Monasson, B. Selma, and R. Zecchina (Guest Editors). Phase Transitions in Combinatorial Problems. Theoretical Computer Science, Volume 265, Numbers 1-2, 2001. U. Feige. Relations between average case complexity and approximation complexity. In STOC, pages 534?543, 2002. Uriel Feige and Eran Ofek. Easily refutable subformulas of large random 3cnf formulas. Theory of Computing, 3(1):25?43, 2007. E. Hazan, S. Kale, and S. Shalev-Shwartz. Near-optimal algorithms for online matrix prediction. In COLT, 2012. P. Long. and R. Servedio. Low-weight halfspaces for sparse boolean vectors. In ITCS, 2013. R. Servedio. Computational sample complexity and attribute-efficient learning. J. of Comput. Syst. Sci., 60(1):161?178, 2000. Shai Shalev-Shwartz, Ohad Shamir, and Eran Tromer. Using more data to speed-up training time. In AISTATS, 2012. V.N. Vapnik. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Springer, 1995. 9
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Convex Calibrated Surrogates for Low-Rank Loss Matrices with Applications to Subset Ranking Losses Harish G. Ramaswamy Shivani Agarwal Computer Science & Automation Computer Science & Automation Indian Institute of Science Indian Institute of Science harish [email protected] [email protected] Ambuj Tewari Statistics and EECS University of Michigan [email protected] Abstract The design of convex, calibrated surrogate losses, whose minimization entails consistency with respect to a desired target loss, is an important concept to have emerged in the theory of machine learning in recent years. We give an explicit construction of a convex least-squares type surrogate loss that can be designed to be calibrated for any multiclass learning problem for which the target loss matrix has a low-rank structure; the surrogate loss operates on a surrogate target space of dimension at most the rank of the target loss. We use this result to design convex calibrated surrogates for a variety of subset ranking problems, with target losses including the precision@q, expected rank utility, mean average precision, and pairwise disagreement. 1 Introduction There has been much interest in recent years in understanding consistency properties of learning algorithms ? particularly algorithms that minimize a surrogate loss ? for a variety of ?nite-output learning problems, including binary classi?cation, multiclass classi?cation, multi-label classi?cation, subset ranking, and others [1?17]. For algorithms minimizing a surrogate loss, the question of consistency reduces to the question of calibration of the surrogate loss with respect to the target loss of interest [5?7, 16]; in general, one is interested in convex surrogates that can be minimized ef?ciently. In particular, the existence (and lack thereof) of convex calibrated surrogates for various subset ranking problems, with target losses including for example the discounted cumulative gain (DCG), mean average precision (MAP), mean reciprocal rank (MRR), and pairwise disagreement (PD), has received signi?cant attention recently [9, 11?13, 15?17]. In this paper, we develop a general result which allows us to give an explicit convex, calibrated surrogate de?ned on a low-dimensional surrogate space for any ?nite-output learning problem for which the loss matrix has low rank. Recently, Ramaswamy and Agarwal [16] showed the existence of such surrogates, but their result involved an unwieldy surrogate space, and moreover did not give an explicit, usable construction for the mapping needed to transform predictions in the surrogate space back to the original prediction space. Working in the same general setting as theirs, we give an explicit construction that leads to a simple least-squares type surrogate. We then apply this result to obtain several new results related to subset ranking. Speci?cally, we ?rst obtain calibrated, score-based surrogates for the Precision@q loss, which includes the winner-take-all (WTA) loss as a special case, and the expected rank utility (ERU) loss; to the best of our knowledge, consistency with respect to these losses has not been studied previously in the literature. When there are r documents to be ranked for each query, the score-based surrogates operate on an r-dimensional surrogate space. We then turn to the MAP and PD losses, which are both widely used in practice, and for which it has been shown that no convex score-based surrogate can be calibrated for all probability distributions [11, 15, 16]. For the PD loss, Duchi et al. [11] gave certain low-noise conditions on the probability distribution under which a convex, calibrated score-based surrogate could be designed; 1 we are unaware of such a result for the MAP loss. A straightforward application of our low-rank result to these losses yields convex calibrated surrogates de?ned on O(r2 )-dimensional surrogate spaces, but in both cases, the mapping needed to transform back to predictions in the original space involves solving a computationally hard problem. Inspired by these surrogates, we then give a convex score-based surrogate with an ef?cient mapping that is calibrated with respect to MAP under certain conditions on the probability distribution; this is the ?rst such result for the MAP loss that we are aware of. We also give a family of convex score-based surrogates calibrated with the PD loss under certain noise conditions, generalizing the surrogate and conditions of Duchi et al. [11]. Finally, we give an ef?cient mapping for the O(r2 )-dimensional surrogate for the PD loss, and show that this leads to a convex surrogate calibrated with the PD loss under a more general condition, i.e. over a larger set of probability distributions, than those associated with the score-based surrogates. Paper outline. We start with some preliminaries and background in Section 2. Section 3 gives our primary result, namely an explicit convex surrogate calibrated for low-rank loss matrices, de?ned on a surrogate space of dimension at most the rank of the matrix. Sections 4?7 then give applications of this result to the Precision@q, ERU, MAP, and PD losses, respectively. All proofs not included in the main text can be found in the appendix. 2 Preliminaries and Background Setup. We work in the same general setting as that of Ramaswamy and Agarwal [16]. There is an instance space X , a ?nite set of class labels Y = [n] = {1, . . . , n}, and a ?nite set of target labels (possible predictions) T = [k] = {1, . . . , k}. Given training examples (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xm , Ym ) drawn i.i.d. from a distribution D on X ?Y, the goal is to learn a prediction model h : X ?T . Often, T = Y, but this is not always the case (for example, in the subset ranking problems we consider, the labels in Y are typically relevance vectors or preference graphs over a set of r documents, while the target labels in T are permutations over the r documents). The performance of a prediction model h : X ?T is measured via a loss function ? : Y ? T ?R+ (where R+ = [0, ?)); here ?(y, t) denotes the loss incurred on predicting t ? T when the label is y ? Y. Speci?cally, the goal is to learn a model h with low expected loss or ?-error er?D [h] = E(X,Y )?D [?(Y, h(X))]; ideally, one ? wants the ?-error of the learned model to be close to the optimal ?-error er?,? D = inf h:X ?T erD [h]. An algorithm which when given a random training sample as above produces a (random) model hm : X ?T is said to be consistent w.r.t. ? if the ?-error of the learned model hm converges in P 1 probability to the optimal: er?D [hm ] ? ? er?,? D . Typically, minimizing the discrete ?-error directly is computationally dif?cult; therefore one uses ? + (where R ? + = [0, ?]), de?ned on the continuous instead a surrogate loss function ? : Y ? Rd ?R d surrogate target space R for some d ? Z+ instead of the discrete target space T , and learns a model f : X ?Rd by minimizing (approximately, based on the training sample) the ?-error er? D [f ] = E(X,Y )?D [?(Y, f (X))]. Predictions on new instances x ? X are then made by applying the learned model f and mapping back to predictions in the target space T via some mapping pred : Rd ?T , giving h(x) = pred(f (x)). Under suitable conditions, algorithms that approximately minimize the ?-error based on a training sample are known to be consistent with respect to ?, i.e. to converge in ? probability to the optimal ?-error er?,? D = inf f :X ?Rd erD [f ]. A desirable property of ? is that it be calibrated w.r.t. ?, in which case consistency w.r.t. ? also guarantees consistency w.r.t. ?; we give a formal de?nition of calibration and statement of this result below. ? In what follows, we will denote by ?n the probability simplex in Rn : ?n = {p ? Rn+ : i pi = 1}. For z ? R, let (z)+ = max(z, 0). We will ?nd it convenient to view the loss function ? : Y ?T ?R+ as an n ? k matrix with elements ?yt = ?(y, t) for y ? [n], t ? [k], and column vectors ?t = ?+ (?1t , . . . , ?nt )? ? Rn+ for t ? [k]. We will also represent the surrogate loss ? : Y ? Rd ?R d n d ? as a vector function ? : R ?R+ with ?y (u) = ?(y, u) for y ? [n], u ? R , and ?(u) = ? n for u ? Rd . (?1 (u), . . . , ?n (u))? ? R + ?+ De?nition 1 (Calibration). Let ? : Y ? T ?R+ and let P ? ?n . A surrogate loss ? : Y ? Rd ?R d is said to be calibrated w.r.t. ? over P if there exists a function pred : R ?T such that p? ?(u) > inf p? ?(u) . ?p ? P : inf ? u?Rd :pred(u)?argmin / t p ?t 1 P P u?Rd Here ? ? denotes convergence in probability: Xm ? ? a if ?? > 0, P(|Xm ? a| ? ?) ? 0 as m ? ?. 2 In this case we also say (?, pred) is (?, P)-calibrated, or if P = ?n , simply ?-calibrated. ? + . Then ? is calibrated w.r.t. ? Theorem 2 ( [6, 7, 16]). Let ? : Y ? T ?R+ and ? : Y ? Rd ?R over ?n iff ? a function pred : Rd ?T such that for all distributions D on X ? Y and all sequences of random (vector) functions fm : X ?Rd (depending on (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xm , Ym )), P ? er?,? er? D [fm ] ? D P er?D [pred ? fm ] ? ? er?,? D . implies For any instance x ? X , let p(x) ? ?n denote the conditional label probability vector at x, given by p(x) = (p1 (x), . . . , pn (x))? where py (x) = P(Y = y | X = x). Then one can extend the above result to show that for P ? ?n , ? is calibrated w.r.t. ? over P iff ? a function pred : Rd ?T such that the above implication holds for all distributions D on X ? Y for which p(x) ? P ?x ? X . Subset ranking. Subset ranking problems arise frequently in information retrieval applications. In a subset ranking problem, each instance in X consists of a query together with a set of say r documents to be ranked. The label space Y varies from problem to problem: in some cases, labels consist of binary or multi-level relevance judgements for the r documents, in which case Y = {0, 1}r or Y = {0, 1, . . . , s}r for some appropriate s ? Z+ ; in other cases, labels consist of pairwise preference graphs over the r documents, represented as (possibly weighted) directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) over r nodes. Given examples of such instance-label pairs, the goal is to learn a model to rank documents for new queries/instances; in most cases, the desired ranking takes the form of a permutation over the r documents, so that T = Sr (where Sr denotes the group of permutations on r objects). As noted earlier, various loss functions are used in practice, and there has been much interest in understanding questions of consistency and calibration for these losses in recent years [9?15, 17]. The focus so far has mostly been on designing r-dimensional surrogates, which operate on a surrogate target space of dimension d = r; these are also termed ?score-based? surrogates since the resulting algorithms can be viewed as learning one real-valued score function for each of the r documents, and in this case the pred mapping usually consists of simply sorting the documents according to these scores. Below we will apply our result on calibrated surrogates for low-rank loss matrices to obtain new calibrated surrogates ? both r-dimensional, score-based surrogates and, in some cases, higher-dimensional surrogates ? for several subset ranking losses. 3 Calibrated Surrogates for Low Rank Loss Matrices The following is the primary result of our paper. The result gives an explicit construction for a convex, calibrated, least-squares type surrogate loss de?ned on a low-dimensional surrogate space for any target loss matrix that has a low-rank structure. Theorem 3. Let ? : Y ? T ?R+ be a loss function such that there exist d ? Z+ , vectors ?1 , . . . , ?n ? Rd , ? 1 , . . . , ? k ? Rd and c ? R such that d ? ?(y, t) = ?yi ?ti + c . i=1 ? + be de?ned as Let ??? : Y ? Rd ?R ??? (y, u) = d ? i=1 and let pred?? : Rd ?T be de?ned as ? ? Then ??? , pred?? is ?-calibrated. (ui ? ?yi )2 pred?? (u) ? argmint?[k] u? ? t . Proof. Let p ? ?n . De?ne up ? Rd as up i = p? ? ?? (u) = ?n y=1 d ? n ? i=1 y=1 py ?yi ?i ? [d]. Now for any u ? Rd , we have py (ui ? ?yi )2 . Minimizing this over u ? R yields that u is the unique minimizer of p? ? ?? (u). Also, for any t ? [k], we have d p 3 ? p ?t = n ? py y=1 Now, for each t ? [k], de?ne d ?? ?yi ?ti + c i=1 ? = (up )? ? t + c . ? regret?p (t) = p? ?t ? min p? ?t? = (up )? ? t ? min (up )? ? t? . ? ? t ?[k] t ?[k] Clearly, by de?nition of pred?? , we have regret?p (pred?? (up )) = 0. Also, if regret?p (t) = 0 for all t ? [k], then trivially pred?? (u) ? argmint p? ?t ?u ? Rd (and there is nothing to prove in this case). Therefore assume ?t ? [k] : regret?p (t) > 0, and let regret?p (t) . ? = min t?[k]:regret?p (t)>0 Then we have inf ? u?Rd :pred? / t p ?t ? (u)?argmin p? ? ?? (u) = = inf u?Rd :regret?p (pred? ? (u))?? p? ? ?? (u) inf ? ? p u?Rd :regret?p (pred? ? (u))?regretp (pred? (u ))+? p? ? ?? (u) . Now, we claim that the mapping u ?? regret?p (pred?? (u)) is continuous at u = up . To see this, suppose the sequence {um } converges to up . Then we have regret?p (pred?? (um )) = (up )? ? pred?? (um ) ? min (up )? ? t? ? = (u ? um ) ? pred?? (um ) + u? ? min (up )? ? t? m ? pred? ? (um ) ? = p ? p ? t ?[k] (u ? um ) ? pred?? (um ) + min ? t ?[k] holds by de?nition of pred?? . It is easy to see to up . Thus regret?p (pred?? (um )) converges to The last equality as um converges continuity at up . In particular, this implies ?? > 0 such that This gives u? m ? t? t ?[k] ? min (up )? ? t? ? t ?[k] the term on the right goes to zero regret?p (pred?? (up )) = 0, yielding ?u ? up ? < ? =? regret?p (pred?? (u)) ? regret?p (pred?? (up )) < ? . inf ? ? p u?Rd :regret?p (pred? ? (u))?regretp (pred? (u ))+? p? ? ?? (u) ? > inf u?Rd :?u?up ??? p? ? ?? (u) inf p? ? ?? (u) , u?Rd where the last inequality holds since p? ? ?? (u) is a strictly convex function of u and up is its unique minimizer. The above sequence of inequalities give us that inf ? u?Rd :pred? / t p ?t ? (u)?argmin p? ? ?? (u) > inf p? ? ?? (u) . u?Rd Since this holds for all p ? ?n , we have that (??? , pred?? ) is ?-calibrated. We note that Ramaswamy and Agarwal [16] showed a similar least-squares type surrogate calibrated for any loss ? : Y ? T ?R+ ; indeed our proof technique above draws inspiration from the proof technique there. However, the surrogate they gave was de?ned on a surrogate space of dimension n ? 1, where n is the number of class labels in Y. For many practical problems, this is an intractably large number. For example, as noted above, in the subset ranking problems we consider, the number of class labels is typically exponential in r, the number of documents associated with each query. On the other hand, as we will see below, many subset ranking losses have a low-rank structure, with rank linear or quadratic in r, allowing us to use the above result to design convex calibrated surrogates on an O(r) or O(r2 )-dimensional space. Ramaswamy and Agarwal also gave another result in which they showed that any loss matrix of rank d has a d-dimensional convex calibrated surrogate; however the surrogate there was de?ned such that it took values < ? on an awkward space in Rd (not the full space Rd ) that would be dif?cult to construct in practice, and moreover, their result did not yield an explicit construction for the pred mapping required to use a calibrated surrogate in practice. Our result above combines the bene?ts of both these previous results, allowing explicit construction of low-dimensional least-squares type surrogates for any low-rank loss matrix. The following sections will illustrate several applications of this result. 4 4 Calibrated Surrogates for Precision@q The Precision@q is a popular performance measure for subset ranking problems in information retrieval. As noted above, in a subset ranking problem, each instance in X consists of a query together with a set of r documents to be ranked. Consider a setting with binary relevance judgement labels, so that Y = {0, 1}r with n = 2r . The prediction space is T = Sr (group of permutations on r objects) with k = r!. For y ? {0, 1}r and ? ? Sr , where ?(i) denotes the position of document i under ?, the Precision@q loss for any integer q ? [r] can be written as follows: q ?P@q (y, ?) = 1? = 1? 1? y ?1 q i=1 ? (i) r 1? yi ? 1(?(i) ? q) . q i=1 ? ? + and pred? : Therefore, by Theorem 3, for the r-dimensional surrogate ?P@q : {0, 1}r ? Rr ?R P@q r R ?Sr de?ned as r ? ? ?P@q (y, u) = (ui ? yi )2 i=1 pred?P@q (u) argmax??Sr ? r ? i=1 ui ? 1(?(i) ? q) , ? , pred?P@q ) is ?P@q -calibrated. It can easily be seen that for any u ? Rr , any we have that (?P@q permutation ? which places the top q documents sorted in decreasing order of scores ui in the top q positions achieves the maximum in pred?P@q (u); thus pred?P@q (u) can be implemented ef?ciently using a standard sorting or selection algorithm. Note that the popular winner-take-all (WTA) loss, which assigns a loss of 0 if the top-ranked item is relevant (i.e. if y??1 (1) = 1) and 1 otherwise, is simply a special case of the above loss with q = 1; therefore the above construction also yields a calibrated surrogate for the WTA loss. To our knowledge, this is the ?rst example of convex, calibrated surrogates for the Precision@q and WTA losses. 5 Calibrated Surrogates for Expected Rank Utility The expected rank utility (ERU) is a popular subset ranking performance measure used in recommender systems displaying short ranked lists [18]. In this case the labels consist of multi-level relevance judgements (such as 0 to 5 stars), so that Y = {0, 1, . . . , s}r for some appropriate s ? Z+ with n = (s + 1)r . The prediction space again is T = Sr with k = r!. For y ? {0, 1, . . . , s}r and ? ? Sr , where ?(i) denotes the position of document i under ?, the ERU loss is de?ned as r ? 1??(i) max(yi ? v, 0) ? 2 w?1 , ?ERU (y, ?) = z ? i=1 where z is a constant to ensure the positivity of the loss, v ? [s] is a constant that indicates a neutral score, and w ? R is a constant indicating the viewing half-life. Thus, by Theorem 3, for the ? ? + and pred? : Rr ?Sr de?ned as : {0, 1, . . . , s}r ? Rr ?R r-dimensional surrogate ?ERU ERU r ? ? ?ERU (y, u) = (ui ? max(yi ? v, 0))2 i=1 pred?ERU (u) ? argmax??Sr r ? i=1 ui ? 2 1??(i) w?1 , ? , pred?ERU ) is ?ERU -calibrated. It can easily be seen that for any u ? Rr , any we have that (?ERU permutation ? satisfying the condition ui > uj ? predERU (u), and =? ?(i) < ?(j) therefore pred?ERU (u) can be implemented ef?ciently achieves the maximum in by simply sorting the r documents in decreasing order of scores ui . As for Precision@q, to our knowledge, this is the ?rst example of a convex, calibrated surrogate for the ERU loss. 5 6 Calibrated Surrogates for Mean Average Precision The mean average precision (MAP) is a widely used ranking performance measure in information retrieval and related applications [15, 19]. As with the Precision@q loss, Y = {0, 1}r and T = Sr . For y ? {0, 1}r and ? ? Sr , where ?(i) denotes the position of document i under ?, the MAP loss is de?ned as follows: ?(i) ? 1 ? 1 ?MAP (y, ?) = 1 ? y ?1 . |{? : y? = 1}| i:y =1 ?(i) j=1 ? (j) i It was recently shown that there cannot exist any r-dimensional convex, calibrated surrogates for the MAP loss [15]. We now re-write the MAP loss above in a manner that allows us to show the existence of an O(r2 )-dimensional convex, calibrated surrogate. In particular, we can write r ? r ? i i ? ? y??1 (i) y??1 (j) 1 yi yj 1 . = 1 ? ?r ?MAP (y, ?) = 1 ? ?r i ?=1 y? i=1 j=1 ?=1 y? i=1 j=1 max(?(i), ?(j)) ? ? + and -dimensional surrogate ?MAP : {0, 1}r ? Rr(r+1)/2 ?R Thus, by Theorem 3, for the r(r+1) 2 ? r(r+1)/2 ?Sr de?ned as predMAP : R r ? i ? ? y i y j ?2 ? (y, u) = ?MAP uij ? ?r ?=1 y? i=1 j=1 pred?MAP (u) we have that ? (?MAP , pred?MAP ) ? argmax??Sr r ? i ? i=1 j=1 is ?MAP -calibrated. uij ? 1 , max(?(i), ?(j)) Note however that the optimization problem associated with computing pred?MAP (u) above can be written as a quadratic assignment problem (QAP), and most QAPs are known to be NP-hard. We conjecture that the QAP associated with the mapping pred?MAP above is also NP-hard. Therefore, ? while the surrogate loss ?MAP is calibrated for ?MAP and can be minimized ef?ciently over a training sample to learn a model f : X ?Rr(r+1)/2 , for large r, evaluating the mapping required to transform predictions in Rr(r+1)/2 back to predictions in Sr is likely to be computationally infeasible. Below we describe an alternate mapping in place of pred?MAP which can be computed ef?ciently, and show ? that under certain conditions on the probability distribution, the surrogate ?MAP together with this mapping is still calibrated for ?MAP . Speci?cally, de?ne predMAP : Rr(r+1)/2 ?Sr as follows: ? ? predMAP (u) ? ? ? Sr : uii > ujj =? ?(i) < ?(j) . Clearly, predMAP (u) can be implemented ef?ciently by simply sorting the ?diagonal? elements uii for i ? [r]. Also, let ?Y denote the probability simplex over Y, and for each p ? ?Y , de?ne up ? Rr(r+1)/2 as follows: ? ? ? ? yi y j ? Yi Yj ? = E py ? r up = ?i, j ? [r] : i ? j . Y ?p r ij ?=1 Y? ?=1 y? y?Y Now de?ne Preinforce ? ?Y as follows: ? p p p Preinforce = p ? ?Y : up ii ? ujj =? uii ? ujj + ? ??[r]\{i,j} p where we set up ij = uji for i < j. Then we have the following result: ? p (up ? u ) , + j? i? ? Theorem 4. (?MAP , predMAP ) is (?MAP , Preinforce )-calibrated. The ideal predictor pred?MAP uses the entire u matrix, but the predictor predMAP , uses only the diagonal elements. The noise conditions Preinforce can be viewed as basically enforcing that the diagonal elements dominate and enforce a clear ordering themselves. In fact, since the mapping predMAP depends on only the diagonal elements of u, we can equivalently de?ne an r-dimensional surrogate that is calibrated w.r.t. ?MAP over Preinforce . Speci?cally, we have the following immediate corollary: 6 r ? + and pred ? Corollary 5. Let ??MAP : {0, 1}r ? Rr ?R MAP : R ?Sr be de?ned as r ? ? ? 2 yi ?) = u ?i ? ?r ??MAP (y, u ?=1 y? i=1 ? ? ? pred u) ? ? ? Sr : u ?i > u ?j =? ?(i) < ?(j) . MAP (? ? Then (??MAP , pred MAP ) is (?MAP , Preinforce )-calibrated. r ? ? Looking at the ?rform of ?MAP and predMAP , we can see that the function s : Y?R de?ned as si (y) = yi /( ?=1 yr ) is a ?standardization function? for the MAP loss over Preinforce , and therefore it follows that any ?order-preserving surrogate? with this standardization function is also calibrated with the MAP loss over Preinforce [13]. To our knowledge, this is the ?rst example of conditions on the probability distribution under which a convex calibrated (and moreover, score-based) surrogate can be designed for the MAP loss. 7 Calibrated Surrogates for Pairwise Disagreement The pairwise disagreement (PD) loss is a natural and widely used loss in subset ranking [11, 17]. The label space Y here consists of a ?nite number of (possibly weighted) directed acyclic graphs r(r?1) (DAGs) over r nodes; we can represent each such label as a vector y ? R+ where at least one of yij or yji is 0 for each i ?= j, with yij > 0 indicating a preference for document i over document j and yij denoting the weight of the preference. The prediction space as usual is T = Sr with k = r!. For y ? Y and ? ? Sr , where ?(i) denotes the position of document i under ?, the PD loss is de?ned as follows: r ? ? ? ? yij 1 ?(i) > ?(j) . ?PD (y, ?) = i=1 j?=i It was recently shown that there cannot exist any r-dimensional convex, calibrated surrogates for the ? ?+ PD loss [15, 16]. By Theorem 3, for the r(r ? 1)-dimensional surrogate ?PD : Y ? Rr(r?1) ?R ? and predPD : Rr(r?1) ?Sr de?ned as r ? ? ? ?PD (y, u) = (uij ? yij )2 (1) i=1 j?=i pred?PD (u) ? argmin??Sr r ? ? i=1 j?=i ? ? uij ? 1 ?(i) > ?(j) ? we immediately have that (?PD , pred?PD ) is ?PD -calibrated (in fact the loss matrix ?PD has rank at most r(r?1) r(r?1) , allowing for an 2 -dimensional surrogate; we use r(r ?1) dimensions for convenience). 2 In this case, the optimization problem associated with computing pred?PD (u) above is a minimum weighted feedback arc set (MWFAS) problem, which is known to be NP-hard. Therefore, as with the ? MAP loss, while the surrogate loss ?PD is calibrated for ?PD and can be minimized ef?ciently over a training sample to learn a model f : X ?Rr(r?1) , for large r, evaluating the mapping required to transform predictions in Rr(r?1) back to predictions in Sr is likely to be computationally infeasible. Below we give two sets of results. In Section 7.1, we give a family of score-based (r-dimensional) surrogates that are calibrated with the PD loss under different conditions on the probability distribution; these surrogates and conditions generalize those of Duchi et al. [11]. In Section 7.2, we give a different condition on the probability distribution under which we can actually avoid ?dif?cult? graphs being passed to pred?PD . This condition is more general (i.e. encompasses a larger set of probability distributions) than those associated with the score-based surrogates; this gives a new (non-score-based, r(r ?1)-dimensional) surrogate with an ef?ciently computable pred mapping that is calibrated with the PD loss over a larger set of probability distributions than previous surrogates for this loss. 7.1 Family of r-Dimensional Surrogates Calibrated with ?PD Under Noise Conditions The following gives a family of score-based surrogates, parameterized by functions f : Y?Rr , that are calibrated with the PD loss under different conditions on the probability distribution: 7 Theorem 6. Let f : Y?Rr be any function that maps DAGs y ? Y to score vectors f (y) ? Rr . Let ? + , pred : Rr ?Sr and Pf ? ?Y be de?ned as ? f : Y ? R r ?R r ? ?2 ? ?f (y, u) = ui ? fi (y) ? ? i=1 pred(u) ? ? ? Sr : ui > uj =? ?(i) < ?(j) ? ? Pf = p ? ?Y : EY ?p [Yij ] > EY ?p [Yji ] =? EY ?p [fi (Y )] > EY ?p [fj (Y )] . Then (?f , pred) is (?PD , Pf )-calibrated. The noise conditions Pf state that the expected value of function f must decide the ?right? ordering. We note that the surrogate given by Duchi et al. [11] can be written in our notation as r ? r ? ? ?DMJ (y, u) = yij (uj ? ui ) + ? ?(ui ) , i=1 j?=i i=1 where ? is a strictly convex and 1-coercive function and ? > 0. Taking ?(z) = z 2 and ? = 12 gives a special case of the family of score-based surrogates ? in Theorem 6 above obtained by taking f as (yij ? yji ) . fi (y) = j?=i Indeed, the set of noise conditions under which the surrogate ?DMJ is shown to be calibrated with the PD loss in Duchi et al. [11] is exactly the set Pf above with this choice of f . We also note that f can be viewed as a ?standardization function? [13] for the PD loss over Pf . 7.2 An O(r2 )-dimensional Surrogate Calibrated with ?PD Under More General Conditions ? : Y ? Rr(r?1) de?ned in Eq. (1). We noted Consider now the r(r ? 1)-dimensional surrogate ?PD ? the corresponding mapping predPD involved an NP-hard optimization problem. Here we give an alternate mapping predPD : Rr(r?1) ?Sr that can be computed ef?ciently, and show that under ? certain conditions on the probability distribution , the surrogate ?PD together with this mapping predPD is calibrated for ?PD . The mapping predPD is described by Algorithm 1 below: Algorithm 1 predPD (Input: u ? Rr(r?1) ; Output: Permutation ? ? Sr ) Construct a directed graph over [r] with edge (i, j) having weight (uij ? uji )+ . If this graph is acyclic, return any topological sorted order. If the graph has cycles, sort the edges in ascending order by weight and delete them one by one (smallest weight ?rst) until the graph becomes acyclic; return any topological sorted order of the resulting acyclic graph. For each p ? ?Y , de?ne E p = {(i, j) ? [r] ? [r] : EY ?p [Yij ] > EY ?p [Yji ]}, and de?ne ? ? ? ? PDAG = p ? ?Y : [r], E p is a DAG . Then we have the following result: ? , predPD ) is (?PD , PDAG )-calibrated. Theorem 7. (?PD It is easy to see that PDAG ? Pf ?f (where Pf is as de?ned in Theorem 6), so that the above result yields a low-dimensional, convex surrogate with an ef?ciently computable pred mapping that is calibrated for the PD loss under a broader set of conditions than the previous surrogates. 8 Conclusion Calibration of surrogate losses is an important property in designing consistent learning algorithms. We have given an explicit method for constructing calibrated surrogates for any learning problem with a low-rank loss structure, and have used this to obtain several new results for subset ranking, including new calibrated surrogates for the Precision@q, ERU, MAP and PD losses. Acknowledgments The authors thank the anonymous reviewers, Aadirupa Saha and Shiv Ganesh for their comments. HGR acknowledges a Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) PhD fellowship and the Indo-US Virtual Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (VIMSS). SA thanks the Department of Science & Technology (DST) and Indo-US Science & Technology Forum (IUSSTF) for their support. AT gratefully acknowledges the support of NSF under grant IIS-1319810. 8 References [1] G?abor Lugosi and Nicolas Vayatis. On the Bayes-risk consistency of regularized boosting methods. Annals of Statistics, 32(1):30?55, 2004. [2] Wenxin Jiang. Process consistency for AdaBoost. Annals of Statistics, 32(1):13?29, 2004. [3] Tong Zhang. Statistical behavior and consistency of classi?cation methods based on convex risk minimization. Annals of Statistics, 32(1):56?134, 2004. [4] Ingo Steinwart. Consistency of support vector machines and other regularized kernel classi?ers. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51(1):128?142, 2005. [5] Peter L. Bartlett, Michael Jordan, and Jon McAuliffe. Convexity, classi?cation and risk bounds. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(473):138?156, 2006. [6] Tong Zhang. Statistical analysis of some multi-category large margin classi?cation methods. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:1225?1251, 2004. [7] Ambuj Tewari and Peter L. Bartlett. On the consistency of multiclass classi?cation methods. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 8:1007?1025, 2007. [8] Ingo Steinwart. How to compare different loss functions and their risks. Constructive Approximation, 26:225?287, 2007. [9] David Cossock and Tong Zhang. Statistical analysis of bayes optimal subset ranking. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 54(11):5140?5154, 2008. [10] Fen Xia, Tie-Yan Liu, Jue Wang, Wensheng Zhang, and Hang Li. Listwise approach to learning to rank: Theory and algorithm. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2008. [11] John Duchi, Lester Mackey, and Michael Jordan. On the consistency of ranking algorithms. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2010. [12] Pradeep Ravikumar, Ambuj Tewari, and Eunho Yang. On NDCG consistency of listwise ranking methods. In International Conference on Arti?cial Intelligence and Statistics, 2011. [13] David Buffoni, Cl?ement Calauz`enes, Patrick Gallinari, and Nicolas Usunier. Learning scoring functions with order-preserving losses and standardized supervision. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2011. [14] Wei Gao and Zhi-Hua Zhou. On the consistency of multi-label learning. In Conference on Learning Theory, 2011. [15] Cl?ement Calauz`enes, Nicolas Usunier, and Patrick Gallinari. On the (non-)existence of convex, calibrated surrogate losses for ranking. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 197?205. 2012. [16] Harish G. Ramaswamy and Shivani Agarwal. Classi?cation calibration dimension for general multiclass losses. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2087? 2095. 2012. [17] Yanyan Lan, Jiafeng Guo, Xueqi Cheng, and Tie-Yan Liu. Statistical consistency of ranking methods in a rank-differentiable probability space. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 1241?1249. 2012. [18] Quoc V. Le and Alex Smola. Direct optimization of ranking measures, arXiv:0704.3359, 2007. [19] Yisong Yue, Thomas Finley, Filip Radlinski, and Thorsten Joachims. A support vector method for optimizing average precision. In Proceedings of the 30th ACM SIGIR International Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval, 2007. 9
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On the Relationship Between Binary Classification, Bipartite Ranking, and Binary Class Probability Estimation Harikrishna Narasimhan Shivani Agarwal Department of Computer Science and Automation Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India {harikrishna,shivani}@csa.iisc.ernet.in Abstract We investigate the relationship between three fundamental problems in machine learning: binary classification, bipartite ranking, and binary class probability estimation (CPE). It is known that a good binary CPE model can be used to obtain a good binary classification model (by thresholding at 0.5), and also to obtain a good bipartite ranking model (by using the CPE model directly as a ranking model); it is also known that a binary classification model does not necessarily yield a CPE model. However, not much is known about other directions. Formally, these relationships involve regret transfer bounds. In this paper, we introduce the notion of weak regret transfer bounds, where the mapping needed to transform a model from one problem to another depends on the underlying probability distribution (and in practice, must be estimated from data). We then show that, in this weaker sense, a good bipartite ranking model can be used to construct a good classification model (by thresholding at a suitable point), and more surprisingly, also to construct a good binary CPE model (by calibrating the scores of the ranking model). 1 Introduction Learning problems with binary labels, where one is given training examples consisting of objects with binary labels (such as emails labeled spam/non-spam or documents labeled relevant/irrelevant), are widespread in machine learning. These include for example the three fundamental problems of binary classification, where the goal is to learn a classification model which, when given a new object, can predict its label; bipartite ranking, where the goal is to learn a ranking model that can rank new objects such that those in one category are ranked higher than those in the other; and binary class probability estimation (CPE), where the goal is to learn a CPE model which, when given a new object, can estimate the probability of its belonging to each of the two classes. Of these, binary classification is classical, although several fundamental questions related to binary classification have been understood only relatively recently [1?4]; bipartite ranking is more recent and has received much attention in recent years [5?8], and binary CPE, while a classical problem, also continues to be actively investigated [9,10]. All three problems abound in applications, ranging from email classification to document retrieval and computer vision to medical diagnosis. It is well known that a good binary CPE model can be used to obtain a good binary classification model (in a formal sense that we will detail below; specifically, in terms of regret transfer bounds) [4, 11]; more recently, it was shown that a good binary CPE model can also be used to obtain a good bipartite ranking model (again, in terms of regret transfer bounds, to be detailed below) [12]. It is also known that a binary classification model cannot necessarily be converted to a CPE model.1 However, beyond this, not much is understood about the exact relationship between these problems.2 1 Note that we start from a single classification model, which rules out the probing reduction of [13]. There are some results suggesting equivalence between specific boosting-style classification and ranking algorithms [14, 15], but this does not say anything about relationships between the problems per se. 2 1 Figure 1: (a) Current state of knowledge; (b) State of knowledge after the results of this paper. Here ?S? denotes a ?strong? regret transfer relationship; ?W? denotes a ?weak? regret transfer relationship. In this paper, we introduce the notion of weak regret transfer bounds, where the mapping needed to transform a model from one problem to another depends on the underlying probability distribution (and in practice, must be estimated from data). We then show such weak regret transfer bounds (under mild technical conditions) from bipartite ranking to binary classification, and from bipartite ranking to binary CPE. Specifically, we show that, given a good bipartite ranking model and access to either the distribution or a sample from it, one can estimate a suitable threshold and convert the ranking model into a good binary classification model; similarly, given a good bipartite ranking model and access to the distribution or a sample, one can ?calibrate? the ranking model to construct a good binary CPE model. Though weak, the regret bounds are non-trivial in the sense that the sample size required for constructing a good classification or CPE model from an existing ranking model is smaller than what might be required to learn such models from scratch. The main idea in transforming a ranking model to a classifier is to find a threshold that minimizes the expected classification error on the distribution, or the empirical classification error on the sample. We derive these results for cost-sensitive classification with any cost parameter c. The main idea in transforming a ranking model to a CPE model is to find a monotonically increasing function from R to [0, 1] which, when applied to the ranking model, minimizes the expected CPE error on the distribution, or the empirical CPE error on the sample; this is similar to the idea of isotonic regression [16?19]. The proof here makes use of a recent result of [20] which relates the squared error of a calibrated CPE model to classification errors over uniformly drawn costs, and a result on the Rademacher complexity of a class of bounded monotonically increasing functions on R [21]. As a by-product of our analysis, we also obtain a weak regret transfer bound from bipartite ranking to problems involving the area under the cost curve [22] as a performance measure. The relationships between the three problems ? both those previously known and those established in this paper ? are summarized in Figure 1. As noted above, in a weak regret transfer relationship, given a model for one type of problem, one needs access to a data sample in order to transform this to a model for another problem. This is in contrast to the previous ?strong? relationships, where a binary CPE model can simply be thresholded at 0.5 (or cost c) to yield a classification model, or can simply be used directly as a ranking model. Nevertheless, even with the weak relationships, one still gets that a statistically consistent algorithm for bipartite ranking can be converted into a statistically consistent algorithm for binary classification or for binary CPE. Moreover, as we demonstrate in our experiments, if one has access to a good ranking model and only a small additional sample, then one is better off using this sample to transform the ranking model into a classification or CPE model rather than using the limited sample to learn a classification or CPE model from scratch. The paper is structured as follows. We start with some preliminaries and background in Section 2. Sections 3 and 4 give our main results, namely weak regret transfer bounds from bipartite ranking to binary classification, and from bipartite ranking to binary CPE, respectively. Section 5 gives experimental results on both synthetic and real data. All proofs are included in the appendix. 2 Preliminaries and Background Let X be an instance space and let D be a probability distribution on X ? {?1}. For (x, y) ? D, we denote ?(x) = P(y = 1 | x) and p = P(y = 1). In the settings we are interested in, given a training sample S = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )) ? (X ? {?1})n with examples drawn iid from D, the goal is to learn a binary classification model, a bipartite ranking model, or a binary CPE model. In what follows, for u ? [??, ?], we will denote sign(u) = 1 if u > 0 and ?1 otherwise, and sign(u) = 1 if u ? 0 and ?1 otherwise. 2 (Cost-Sensitive) Binary Classification. Here the goal is to learn a model h : X ? {?1}. Typically, one is interested in models h with small expected 0-1 classification error: er0-1 D [h] = E(x,y)?D 1(h(x) 6= y) , where 1(?) is 1 if its argument is true and 0 otherwise; this is simply the probability that h misclassifies an instance drawn randomly from D. The optimal 0-1 error (Bayes error) is 0-1 er0-1,? = inf er [h] = E min ?(x), 1 ? ?(x) ; x D D h:X?{?1} this is achieved by the Bayes classifier h? (x) = sign(?(x) ? 12 ). The 0-1 classification regret of 0-1,? 0-1 a classifier h is then regret0-1 D [h] = erD [h] ? erD . More generally, in a cost-sensitive binary classification problem with cost parameter c ? (0, 1), where the cost of a false positive is c and that of a false negative is (1 ? c), oneis interested in models h with  small cost-sensitive 0-1 error:  er0-1,c D [h] = E(x,y)?D (1 ? c)1 y = 1, h(x) = ?1 + c 1 y = ?1, h(x) = 1 . 0-1, 1 Note that for c = 21 , we get erD 2 [h] = 12 er0-1 D [h]. The optimal cost-sensitive 0-1 error for cost parameter c can then be seen to be   er0-1,c,? = inf er0-1,c D D [h] = Ex min (1 ? c)?(x), c(1 ? ?(x)) ; h:X?{?1} this is achieved by the classifier h?c (x) = sign(?(x) ? c). The c-cost-sensitive regret of a classifier 0-1,c,? 0-1,c . h is then regret0-1,c D [h] = erD [h] ? erD Bipartite Ranking. Here one wants to learn a ranking model f : X ? R that assigns higher scores to positive instances than to negative ones. Specifically, the goal is to learn a ranking function f with small bipartite ranking error: h i   rank erD [f ] = E 1 (y ? y 0 )(f (x) ? f (x0 )) < 0 + 21 1 f (x) = f (x0 ) y 6= y 0 , where (x, y), (x0 , y 0 ) are assumed to be drawn iid from D; this is the probability that a randomly drawn pair of instances with different labels is mis-ranked by f , with ties broken uniformly at random. It is known that the ranking error of f is equivalent to one minus the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of f [5?7]. The optimal ranking error h can be seen to be i 1 rank,? rank = inf erD [f ] = erD Ex,x0 min ?(x)(1 ? ?(x0 )), ?(x0 )(1 ? ?(x)) ; f :X?R 2p(1 ? p) this is achieved by any function f ? that is a strictly monotonically increasing transformation of ?. rank,? rank The ranking regret of a ranking function f is given by regretrank . D [f ] = erD [f ] ? erD Binary Class Probability Estimation (CPE). The goal here is to learn a class probability estimator or CPE model ?b : X ? [0, 1] with small squared error converted to {0, 1}): i h (relative tolabels sq y+1 2 . erD [ ?b ] = E(x,y)?D ?b(x) ? 2 The optimal squared error can be seen sq to be   sq,? erD = inf erD [ ?b ] = ersq D [ ? ] = Ex ?(x)(1 ? ?(x)) . ? b:X?[0,1] The squared-error regret of a CPE model ?b can be seen to be 2  regretsq b ] = ersq b ] ? ersq,? = Ex ?b(x) ? ?(x) . D[ ? D[ ? D Regret Transfer Bounds. The following (strong) regret transfer results from binary CPE to binary classification and from binary CPE to bipartite ranking are known: Theorem 1 ( [4, 11]). Let ?b : X ? [0, 1]. Let c ? (0, 1). Then the classifier h(x) = sign ?b(x) ? c) obtained by thresholding ?b at c satisfies q     regretsq b] . regret0-1,c sign ? (b ? ? c) ? E |b ? (x) ? ?(x)| ? x D[ ? D Theorem 2 ( [12]). Let ?b : X ? [0, 1]. Then using ?b as a ranking modelqyields   1 1 regretrank b] ? Ex |b ? (x) ? ?(x)| ? regretsq b] . D [? D[ ? p(1 ? p) p(1 ? p) Note that as a consequence of these results, one gets that any learning algorithm that is statistically consistent for binary CPE, i.e. whose squared-error regret converges in probability to zero as the training sample size n ? ?, can easily be converted into an algorithm that is statistically consistent for binary classification (with any cost parameter c, by thresholding the CPE models learned by the algorithm at c), or into an algorithm that is statistically consistent for bipartite ranking (by using the learned CPE models directly for ranking). 3 3 Regret Transfer Bounds from Bipartite Ranking to Binary Classification In this section, we derive weak regret transfer bounds from bipartite ranking to binary classification. We derive two bounds. The first holds in an idealized setting where one is given a ranking model f as well as access to the distribution D for finding a suitable threshold to construct the classifier. The second bound holds in a setting where one is given a ranking model f and a data sample S drawn iid from D for finding a suitable threshold; this bound holds with high probability over the draw of S. Our results will require the following assumption on the distribution D and ranking model f : Assumption A. Let D be a probability distribution on X ? {?1} with marginal distribution ? on X. Let f : X?R be a ranking model, and let ?f denote the induced distribution of scores f (x) ? R when x ? ?. We say (D, f ) satisfies Assumption A if ?f is either discrete, continuous, or mixed with at most finitely many point masses. We will find n it convenient to define the following set of all increasing functions from R to {?1}: o Tinc = ? : R?{?1} : ?(u) = sign(u ? t) or ?(u) = sign(u ? t) for some t ? [??, ?] . Definition 3 (Optimal classification transform). For any ranking model f : X ? R, cost parameter c ? (0, 1), and probability distribution D over X ? {?1} such that (D, f ) satisfies Assumption A, define an optimal classification transform ThreshD,f,c as any increasing function from R to {?1} such that the classifier h(x) = ThreshD,f,c (f (x)) resulting from composing f with ThreshD,f,c yields minimum cost-sensitive 0-1 error on D:    ??f . (OP1) ThreshD,f,c ? argmin??Tinc er0-1,c D We note that when f is the class probability function ?, we have ThreshD,?,c (u) = sign(u ? c). Theorem 4 (Idealized weak regret transfer bound from bipartite ranking to binary classification based on distribution). Let (D, f ) satisfy Assumption A. Let c ? (0, 1). Then the classifier h(x) = ThreshD,f,c (f (x)) satisfies q   regret0-1,c Thresh ? f ? 2p(1 ? p) regretrank D,f,c D D [f ] . In practice, one does not have access to the distribution D, and the optimal threshold must be estimated from a data sample. To this end, we define the following: Definition 5 (Optimal sample-based threshold). For any ranking model f : X ? R, cost paramn b eter c ? (0, 1), and sample S ? ?? n=1 (X ?{?1}) , define an optimal sample-based threshold tS,f,c as any threshold on f such that the resulting classifier h(x) = sign(f (x) ? b tS,f,c ) yields minimum cost-sensitive 0-1 error on S:    b sign ? f ? t , (OP2) tS,f,c ? argmint?R er0-1,c S [h] denotes the c-cost-sensitive 0-1 error of a classifier h on the empirical distribution where er0-1,c S associated with S (i.e. the uniform distribution over examples in S). Note that given a ranking function f , cost parameter c, and a sample S of size n, the optimal samplebased threshold b tS,f,c can be computed in O(n ln n) time by sorting the examples (xi , yi ) in S based on the scores f (xi ) and evaluating at most n + 1 distinct thresholds lying between adjacent score values (and above/below all score values) in this sorted order. Theorem 6 (Sample-based weak regret transfer bound from bipartite ranking to binary classification). Let D be any probability distribution on X ? {?1} and f : X ? R be any fixed ranking model such that (D, f ) satisfies Assumption A. Let S ? (X ? {?1})n be drawn randomly according to Dn . Let c ? (0, 1). Let 0 < ? ? 1. Then with probability at least 1 ? ? (over the draw of S ? Dn ), the classifier h(x) = sign(f (x) ? b tS,f,c ) obtained by thresholding f at b tS,f,c satisfies s   q  32 2 ln(2n) + 1 + ln 4? 0-1,c  rank regretD sign ? (f ? b tS,f,c ) ? 2p(1 ? p) regretD [f ] + . n The proof of Theorem 6 involves an application of the result in Theorem 4 together with a standard VC-dimension based uniform convergence result; specifically, the proof makes use of the fact that selecting the sample-based threshold in (OP2) is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over Tinc . Note in particular that the above regret transfer bound, though ?weak?, is non-trivial in that it suggests a good classifier can be constructed from a good ranking model using far fewer examples than might be required for learning a classifier from scratch based on standard VC-dimension bounds. 4 Remark 7. We note that, as a consequence of Theorem 6, one can use any learning algorithm that is statistically consistent for bipartite ranking to construct an algorithm that is consistent for (costsensitive) binary classification as follows: divide the training data into two (say equal) parts, use one part for learning a ranking model using the consistent ranking algorithm, and the other part for selecting a threshold on the learned ranking model; both terms in Theorem 6 will then go to zero as the training sample size increases, yielding consistency for (cost-sensitive) binary classification. Remark 8. Another implication of the above result is a justification for the use of the AUC as a surrogate performance measure when learning in cost-sensitive classification settings where the misclassification costs are unknown during training time [23]. Here, instead of learning a classifier that minimizes the cost-sensitive classification error for a fixed cost parameter that may turn out to be incorrect, one can learn a ranking function with good ranking performance (in terms of AUC), and then later use a small additional sample to select a suitable threshold once the misclassification costs are known; the above result provides guarantees on the resulting classification performance in terms of the ranking (AUC) performance of the learned model. 4 Regret Transfer Bounds from Bipartite Ranking to Binary CPE We now derive weak regret transfer bounds from bipartite ranking to binary CPE. Again, we derive two bounds: the first holds in an idealized setting where one is given a ranking model f as well as access to the distribution D for finding a suitable conversion to a CPE model; the second, which is a high-probability bound, holds in a setting where one is given a ranking model f and a data sample S drawn iid from D for finding a suitable conversion. We will need the following definition: Definition 9 (Calibrated CPE model). A binary CPE model ?b : X ? [0, 1] is said to be calibrated w.r.t. a probability distribution D on X ? {?1} if P(y = 1 | ?b(x) = u) = u, ?u ? range(b ? ), where range(b ? ) denotes the range of ?b. We will make use of the following result, which follows from results in [20] and shows that the squared error of a calibrated CPE model is related to the expected cost-sensitive error of a classifier constructed using the optimal threshold in Definition 3, over uniform costs in (0, 1): Theorem 10 ( [20]). Let ?b : X ? [0, 1] be a binary CPE model that is calibrated w.r.t. D. Then    ersq ThreshD,b?,c ? ?b , b ] = 2 Ec?U (0,1) er0-1,c D D[ ? where U (0, 1) is the uniform distribution over (0, 1) and ThreshD,b?,c is as defined in Definition 3. The proof of Theorem 10 follows from the fact that for any CPE model ?b that is calibrated w.r.t. D, the optimal classification transform is given by ThreshD,b?,c (u) = sign(u ? c), thus generalizing a similar result noted earlier for the true class probability function ?. We then have the following result, which shows that for a calibrated CPE model ?b : X?[0, 1], one can upper bound the squared-error regret in terms of the bipartite ranking regret; this result follows directly from Theorem 10 and Theorem 4: Lemma 11 (Regret transfer bound for calibrated CPE models). Let ?b : X ? [0, 1] be a binary CPE model that is calibrated w.r.t. D. Then q regretsq b] ? 8p(1 ? p) regretrank b] . D[ ? D [? We are now ready to describe the construction of the optimal CPE transform in the idealized setting. We will find it convenient n to define the following set: o Ginc = g : R?[0, 1] : g is a monotonically increasing function . Definition 12 (Optimal CPE transform). Let f : X ? [a, b] (where a, b ? R, a < b) be any bounded-range ranking model and D be any probability distribution over X ? {?1} such that (D, f ) satisfies Assumption A. Moreover assume that ?f (see Assumption A), if mixed, does not have a point mass at the end-points a, b, and that the function ?f : [a, b]?[0, 1] defined as ?f (t) = P(y = 1 | f (x) = t) is square-integrable w.r.t. the density of the continuous part of ?f . Define an optimal CPE transform CalD,f as any monotonically increasing function from R to [0, 1] such that the CPE model ?b(x) = CalD,f (f (x)) resulting from composing f with CalD,f yields minimum squared error on D (see appendix for existence of CalD,f under these conditions):    CalD,f ? argming?Ginc ersq . (OP3) D g?f 5 Lemma 13 (Properties of CalD,f ). Let (D, f ) satisfy the conditions of Definition 12. Then 1. (CalD,f ? f ) is calibrated w.r.t. D.   2. errank CalD,f ? f ? errank D D [f ]. The proof of Lemma 13 is based on equivalent results for the minimizer of a sample version of (OP3) [24, 25]. Combining this with Lemma 11 immediately gives the following result: Theorem 14 (Idealized weak regret transfer bound from bipartite ranking to binary CPE based on distribution). Let (D, f ) satisfy the conditions of Definition 12. Then the CPE model ?b(x) = CalD,f (f (x)) obtained by composing f with CalD,f satisfies q   regretsq Cal ? f ? 8p(1 ? p) regretrank D,f D D [f ] . We now derive a sample version of the above result. Definition 15 (Optimal sample-based CPE transform). For any ranking model f : X ? R n c and sample S ? ?? n=1 (X ? {?1}) , define an optimal sample-based transform CalS,f as any c S,f (f (x)) monotonically increasing function from R to [0, 1] such that the CPE model ?b(x) = Cal c resulting from composing f with CalS,f yields minimum squared error on S:  sq   c S,f ? argmin er g ? f , (OP4) Cal g?Ginc S where ersq b ] denotes the squared error of a CPE model ?b on the empirical distribution associated S[? with S (i.e. the uniform distribution over examples in S). The above optimization problem corresponds to the well-known isotonic regression problem and can be solved in O(n ln n) time using the pool adjacent violators (PAV) algorithm [16] (the PAV algorithm outputs a score in [0, 1] for each instance in S such that these scores preserve the ordering of f ; a straightforward interpolation of the scores then yields a monotonically increasing function of f ). We then have the following sample-based weak regret transfer result: Theorem 16 (Sample-based weak regret transfer bound from bipartite ranking to binary CPE). Let D be any probability distribution on X ? {?1} and f : X ? [a, b] be any fixed ranking model such that (D, f ) satisfies the conditions of Definition 12. Let S ? (X ? {?1})n be drawn randomly according to Dn . Let 0 < ? ? 1. Then with probability at least 1 ? ? (over c S,f (f (x)) obtained by composing f with Cal c S,f the draw of S ? Dn ), the CPE model ?b(x) = Cal satisfies s r  q   2 ln 8? 2 ln(n) sq c rank 8p(1 ? p) regretD [f ] + 96 +2 . regretD CalS,f ? f ? n n The proof of Theorem 16 involves an application of the idealized result in Theorem 14, together with a standard uniform convergence argument based on Rademacher averages applied to the function class Ginc ; for this, we make use of a result on the Rademacher complexity of this class [21]. Remark 17. As in the case of binary classification, we note that, as a consequence of Theorem 16, one can use any learning algorithm that is statistically consistent for bipartite ranking to construct an algorithm that is consistent for binary CPE as follows: divide the training data into two (say equal) parts, use one part for learning a ranking model using the consistent ranking algorithm, and the other part for selecting a CPE transform on the learned ranking model; both terms in Theorem 16 will then go to zero as the training sample size increases, yielding consistency for binary CPE. Remark 18. We note a recent result in [19] giving a bound on the empirical squared error of a CPE model constructed from a ranking model using isotonic regression in terms of the empirical ranking error of the ranking model. However, this does not amount to a regret transfer bound.    Remark 19. Finally, we note that the quantity Ec?U (0,1) er0-1,c ThreshD,b?,c ? ?b that appears in D Theorem 10 is also the area under the cost curve [20, 22]; since this quantity is upper bounded in terms of regretrank D [f ] by virtue of Theorem 4, we also get a weak regret transfer bound from bipartite ranking to problems where the area under the cost curve is a performance measure of interest. In particular, this implies that algorithms that are statistically consistent with respect to AUC can also be used to construct algorithms that are statistically consistent w.r.t. the area under the cost curve. 6 0.7 0.7 Upper bound Ranking + Opt. Thres. Choice 0.5 0?1 regret Upper bound Ranking + Calibration 0.6 Squared regret 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 10 3 4 10 10 No. of training examples 5 2 10 10 (a) 3 4 10 10 No. of training examples 5 10 (b) Figure 2: Results on synthetic data. A ranking model was learned using a pairwise linear logistic regression ranking algorithm (which is a consistent ranking algorithm for the distribution used in these experiments); this was followed by an optimal choice of classification threshold (with c = 12 ) or optimal CPE transform based on the distribution as outlined in Sections 3 and 4. The plots show (a) 0-1 classification regret of the resulting classification model together with the corresponding upper bound from Theorem 4; and (b) squared-error regret of the resulting CPE model together with the corresponding upper bound from Theorem 14. As can be seen, in both cases, the classification/CPE regret converges to zero as the training sample size increases. 5 Experiments We conducted two types of experiments to evaluate the results described in this paper: the first involved synthetic data drawn from a known distribution for which the classification and ranking regrets could be calculated exactly; the second involved real data from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. In the first experiment, we learned ranking models using a consistent ranking algorithm on increasing training sample sizes, converted the learned models using the optimal threshold or CPE transforms described in Sections 3 and 4 based on the distribution, and verified that this yielded classification and CPE models with 0-1 classification regret and squared-error regret converging to zero. In the second experiment, we simulated a setting where a ranking model has been learned from some data, the original training data is no longer available, and a classification/CPE model is needed; we investigated whether in such a setting the ranking model could be used in conjunction with a small additional data sample to produce a useful classification or CPE model. 5.1 Synthetic Data Our first goal was to verify that using ranking models learned by a statistically consistent ranking algorithm and applying the distribution-based transformations described in Sections 3 and 4 yields classification/CPE models with classification/CPE regret converging to zero. For these experiments, we generated examples in (X = Rd ) ? {?1} (with d = 100) as follows: each example was assigned a positive/negative label with equal probability, with the positive instances drawn from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with mean ? ? Rd and covariance matrix ? ? Rd?d , and negative instances drawn from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with mean ?? and the same covariance matrix ?; here ? was drawn uniformly at random from {?1, 1}d , and ? was drawn from a Wishart distribution with 200 degrees of freedom and a randomly drawn invertible PSD scale matrix. For this distribution, the optimal ranking and classification models are linear. Training samples of various sizes n were generated from this distribution; in each case, a linear ranking model was learned using ? a pairwise linear logistic regression algorithm (with regularization parameter set to 1/ n), and an optimal threshold (with c = 12 ) or CPE transform was then applied to construct a binary classification or CPE model. In this case the ranking regret and 0-1 classification regret of a linear model and can be computed exactly; the squared-error regret for the CPE model was computed approximately by sampling instances from the distribution. The results are shown in Figure 2. As can be seen, the classification and squared-error regrets of the classification and CPE models constructed both satisfy the bounds from Theorems 4 and 14, and converge to zero as the bounds suggest. 5.2 Real Data Our second goal was to investigate whether good classification and CPE models can be constructed in practice by applying the data-based transformations described in Sections 3 and 4 to an existing ranking model. For this purpose, we conducted experiments on several data sets drawn from the UCI Machine Learning Repository3 . We present representative results on two data sets: Spambase (4601 3 http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/ 7 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.06 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 %. of training examples (a) Spambase (0-1) 90 100 0.02 10 0.06 Empr. Calibration Logistic Regression 0.11 Squared error 0.1 (Fixed) Ranking error = 0.0317 0.12 Empr. Thres. Choice Logistic Regression 0.07 0?1 error 0?1 error 0.12 (Fixed) Ranking error = 0.0179 0.08 Empr. Thres. Choice Logistic Regression 0.14 0.1 Squared error (Fixed) Ranking error = 0.0317 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.07 (Fixed) Ranking error = 0.0179 0.05 Empr. Calibration Logistic Regression 0.04 0.03 0.06 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 %. of training examples 90 100 (b) Internet-ads (0-1) 0.05 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 %. of training examples 90 100 (c) Spambase (CPE) 0.02 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %. of training examples (d) Internet-ads (CPE) Figure 3: Results on real data from the UCI repository. A ranking model was learned using a pairwise linear logistic regression ranking algorithm from a part of the data set that was then discarded. The remaining data was divided into training and test sets. The training data was then used to estimate an empirical (sample-based) classification threshold and CPE transform (calibration) for this ranking model as outlined in Sections 3 and 4. Using the same training data, a binary classifier and CPE model were also learned from scratch using a standard linear logistic regression algorithm. The plots show the resulting test error for both approaches. As can be seen, if only a small amount of additional data is available, then using this data to convert an existing ranking model into a classification/CPE model is more beneficial than learning a classification/CPE model from scratch. instances, 57 features) and Internet Ads (3279 instances, 1554 features4 ). Here we divided each data set into three equal parts. One part was used to learn a ranking model using a pairwise linear logistic regression algorithm, and was then discarded. This allowed us to simulate a situation where a (reasonably good) ranking model is available, but the original training data used to learn the model is no longer accessible. Various subsets of the second part of the data (of increasing size) were then used to estimate a data-based threshold or CPE transform on this ranking model using the optimal sample-based methods described in Sections 3 and 4. The performance of the constructed classification and CPE models on the third part of the data, which was held out for testing purposes, is shown in Figure 3. For comparison, we also show the performance of binary classification and CPE models learned directly from the same subsets of the second part of the data using a standard linear logistic regression algorithm. In each case, the regularization parameter for both standard logistic regression and pairwise logistic regression was chosen from {10?4 , 10?3 , 10?2 , 10?1 , 1, 10, 102 } using 5-fold cross validation on the corresponding training data. As can be seen, when one has access to a previously learned (or otherwise available) ranking model with good ranking performance, and only a small amount of additional data, then one is better off using this data to estimate a threshold/CPE transform and converting the ranking model into a classification/CPE model, than learning a classification/CPE model from this data from scratch. However, as can also be seen, the eventual performance of the classification/CPE model thus constructed is limited by the ranking performance of the original ranking model; therefore, once there is sufficient additional data available, it is advisable to use this data to learn a new model from scratch. 6 Conclusion We have investigated the relationship between three fundamental problems in machine learning: binary classification, bipartite ranking, and binary class probability estimation (CPE). While formal regret transfer bounds from binary CPE to binary classification and to bipartite ranking are known, little has been known about other directions. We have introduced the notion of weak regret transfer bounds that require access to a distribution or data sample, and have established the existence of such bounds from bipartite ranking to binary classification and to binary CPE. The latter result makes use of ideas related to calibration and isotonic regression; while these ideas have been used to calibrate scores from real-valued classifiers to construct probability estimates in practice, to our knowledge, this is the first use of such ideas in deriving formal regret bounds in relation to ranking. Our experimental results demonstrate possible uses of the theory developed here. Acknowledgments Thanks to Karthik Sridharan for pointing us to a result on monotonically increasing functions. Thanks to the anonymous reviewers for many helpful suggestions. 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The isotron algorithm: High-dimensional isotonic regression. In COLT, 2009. [25] T. Fawcett and A. Niculescu-Mizil. PAV and the ROC convex hull. Machine Learning, 68(1):97?106, 2007. [26] S. Agarwal. Surrogate regret bounds for the area under the ROC curve via strongly proper losses. In COLT, 2013. [27] D. Anevski and P. Soulier. Monotone spectral density estimation. Annals of Statistics, 39(1):418?438, 2011. [28] P. Groeneboom and G. Jongbloed. Generalized continuous isotonic regression. Statistics & Probability Letters, 80(34):248?253, 2010. 9
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From Bandits to Experts: A Tale of Domination and Independence Noga Alon Tel-Aviv University, Israel [email protected] Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi Universit`a degli Studi di Milano, Italy [email protected] Claudio Gentile University of Insubria, Italy [email protected] Yishay Mansour Tel-Aviv University, Israel [email protected] Abstract We consider the partial observability model for multi-armed bandits, introduced by Mannor and Shamir [14]. Our main result is a characterization of regret in the directed observability model in terms of the dominating and independence numbers of the observability graph (which must be accessible before selecting an action). In the undirected case, we show that the learner can achieve optimal regret without even accessing the observability graph before selecting an action. Both results are shown using variants of the Exp3 algorithm operating on the observability graph in a time-ef?cient manner. 1 Introduction Prediction with expert advice ?see, e.g., [13, 16, 6, 10, 7]? is a general abstract framework for studying sequential prediction problems, formulated as repeated games between a player and an adversary. A well studied example of prediction game is the following: In each round, the adversary privately assigns a loss value to each action in a ?xed set. Then the player chooses an action (possibly using randomization) and incurs the corresponding loss. The goal of the player is to control regret, which is de?ned as the excess loss incurred by the player as compared to the best ?xed action over a sequence of rounds. Two important variants of this game have been studied in the past: the expert setting, where at the end of each round the player observes the loss assigned to each action for that round, and the bandit setting, where the player only observes the loss of the chosen action, but not that of other actions. Let K be the number of available actions, and T?be the number of prediction rounds. The best possible regret for the expert setting is of order T log K. This optimal rate is achieved by the Hedge algorithm [10] or the ? Follow the Perturbed Leader algorithm [12]. In the bandit setting, the optimal regret is of order T K, achieved by the INF algorithm [2]. ?A bandit variant of Hedge, called Exp3 [3], achieves a regret with a slightly worse bound of order T K log K. Recently, Mannor and Shamir [14] introduced an elegant way for de?ning intermediate observability models between the expert setting (full observability) and the bandit setting (single observability). An intuitive way of representing an observability model is through a directed graph over actions: an arc1 from action i to action j implies that when playing action i we get information also about the loss of action j. Thus, the expert setting is obtained by choosing a complete graph over actions (playing any action reveals all losses), and the bandit setting is obtained by choosing an empty edge set (playing an action only reveals the loss of that action). 1 According to the standard terminology in directed graph theory, throughout this paper a directed edge will be called an arc. 1 The main result of [14] concerns undirected observability graphs. The regret is characterized in terms?of the independence number ? of the undirected observability graph. Speci?cally, they prove that T ? log K is the optimal regret (up to logarithmic factors) and show that a variant of Exp3, called ELP, achieves this bound when the graph is known ahead of time, where ? ? {1? . . . ? K} interpolates between full observability (? = 1 for the clique) and single observability (? = K for the graph with no edges). Given the observability graph, ELP runs a linear program to compute the desired distribution over actions. In the case when the graph changes over time,? and at each time ?T step ELP observes the current observability graph before prediction, a bound of t=1 ?t log K is shown, where ?t is the independence number of the graph at time t. A major problem left open in [14] was the characterization of regret for directed observability graphs, a setting for which they only proved partial results. Our main result is a full characterization (to within logarithmic factors) of regret in the case of directed observability graphs. Our upper bounds are proven using a new algorithm, called Exp3-DOM. This algorithm is ef?cient to run even when the graph changes over time: it just needs to compute a small dominating set of the current observability graph (which must be given as side information) before prediction.2 As in the undirected case, the regret for the directed case is characterized in terms of the independence numbers of the observability graphs (computed ignoring edge directions). We arrive at this result by showing that a key quantity emerging in the analysis of Exp3-DOM can be bounded in terms of the independence numbers of the graphs. This bound (Lemma 13 in the appendix) is based on a combinatorial construction which might be of independent interest. We also explore the possibility of the learning algorithm receiving the observability graph only after prediction, and not before. For this setting, we introduce a new variant of Exp3, called Exp3-SET, which achieves the same regret as ELP for undirected graphs, but without the need of accessing the current observability graph before each prediction. We show that in some random directed graph models Exp3-SET has also a good performance. In general, we can upper bound the regret of Exp3SET as a function of the maximum acyclic subgraph of the observability graph, but this upper bound may not be tight. Yet, Exp3-SET is much simpler and computationally less demanding than ELP, which needs to solve a linear program in each round. There are a variety of real-world settings where partial observability models corresponding to directed and undirected graphs are applicable. One of them is route selection. We are given a graph of possible routes connecting cities: when we select a route r connecting two cities, we observe the cost (say, driving time or fuel consumption) of the ?edges? along that route and, in addition, we have complete information on any sub-route r? of r, but not vice versa. We abstract this in our model by having an observability graph over routes r, and an arc from r to any of its sub-routes r? .3 Sequential prediction problems with partial observability models also arise in the context of recommendation systems. For example, an online retailer, which advertises products to users, knows that users buying certain products are often interested in a set of related products. This knowledge can be represented as a graph over the set of products, where two products are joined by an edge if and only if users who buy any one of the two are likely to buy the other as well. In certain cases, however, edges have a preferred orientation. For instance, a person buying a video game console might also buy a high-def cable to connect it to the TV set. Vice versa, interest in high-def cables need not indicate an interest in game consoles. Such observability models may also arise in the case when a recommendation system operates in a network of users. For example, consider the problem of recommending a sequence of products, or contents, to users in a group. Suppose the recommendation system is hosted on an online social network, on which users can befriend each other. In this case, it has been observed that social relationships reveal similarities in tastes and interests [15]. However, social links can also be asymmetric (e.g., followers of celebrities). In such cases, followers might be more likely to shape their preferences after the person they follow, than the other way around. Hence, a product liked by a celebrity is probably also liked by his/her followers, whereas a preference expressed by a follower is more often speci?c to that person. 2 Computing an approximately minimum dominating set can be done by running a standard greedy set cover algorithm, see Section 2. 3 Though this example may also be viewed as an instance of combinatorial bandits [8], the model studied here is more general. For example, it does not assume linear losses, which could arise in the routing example from the partial ordering of sub-routes. 2 2 Learning protocol? notation? and preliminaries As stated in the introduction, we consider an adversarial multi-armed bandit setting with a ?nite action set V = {1? . . . ? K}. At each time t = 1? 2? . . . , a player (the ?learning algorithm?) picks some action It ? V and incurs a bounded loss ?It ?t ? [0? 1]. Unlike the standard adversarial bandit problem [3, 7], where only the played action It reveals its loss ?It ?t , here we assume all the losses in a subset SIt ?t ? V of actions are revealed after It is played. More formally, the player observes the pairs (i? ?i?t ) for each i ? SIt ?t . We also assume i ? Si?t for any i and t, that is, any action reveals its own loss when played. Note that the bandit setting (Si?t = {i}) and the expert setting (Si?t = V ) are both special cases of this framework. We call Si?t the observation set of action i at t time t, and write i ? ? j when at time t playing action i also reveals the loss of action j. Hence, t ? j}. The family of observation sets {Si?t }i?V we collectively call the Si?t = {j ? V : i ? observation system at time t. The adversaries we consider are nonoblivious. Namely, each loss ?i?t at time t can be an arbitrary function of the past player?s actions I1 ? . . . ? It?1 . The performance of a player A is measured through the regret ? ? max ? LA?T ? Lk?T k?V where LA?T = ?I1 ?1 + ? ? ? + ?IT ?T and Lk?T = ?k?1 + ? ? ? + ?k?T are the cumulative losses of the player and of action k, respectively. The expectation is taken with respect to the player?s internal randomization (since losses are allowed to depend on the player?s past random actions, also Lk?t may be random).4 The observation system {Si?t }i?V is also adversarially generated, and each Si?t can be an arbitrary function of past player?s actions, just like losses are. However, in Section 3 we also consider a variant in which the observation system is randomly generated according to a speci?c stochastic model. Whereas some algorithms need to know the observation system at the beginning of each step t, others need not. From this viewpoint, we consider two online learning settings. In the ?rst setting, called the informed setting, the full observation system {Si?t }i?V selected by the adversary is made available to the learner before making its choice It . This is essentially the ?side-information? framework ?rst considered in [14]. In the second setting, called the uninformed setting, no information whatsoever regarding the time-t observation system is given to the learner prior to prediction. We ?nd it convenient to adopt the same graph-theoretic interpretation of observation systems as in [14]. At each step t = 1? 2? . . . , the observation system {Si?t }i?V de?nes a directed graph Gt = (V? Dt ), where V is the set of actions, and Dt is the set of arcs, i.e., ordered pairs of nodes. For j ?= i, arc t t (i? j) ? Dt if and only if i ? ? j (the self-loops created by i ? ? i are intentionally ignored). Hence, we can equivalently de?ne {Si?t }i?V in terms of Gt . Observe that the outdegree d+ i of any i ? V equals |Si?t | ? 1. Similarly, the indegree d? of i is the number of action j = ? i such that i ? Sj?t (i.e., i t such that j ? ? i). A notable special case of the above is when the observation system is symmetric over time: j ? Si?t if and only if i ? Sj?t for all i? j and t. In words, playing i at time t reveals the loss of j if and only if playing j at time t reveals the loss of i. A symmetric observation system is equivalent to Gt being an undirected graph or, more precisely, to a directed graph having, for every pair of nodes i? j ? V , either no arcs or length-two directed cycles. Thus, from the point of view of the symmetry of the observation system, we also distinguish between the directed case (Gt is a general directed graph) and the symmetric case (Gt is an undirected graph for all t). The analysis of our algorithms depends on certain properties of the sequence of graphs Gt . Two graph-theoretic notions playing an important role here are those of independent sets and dominating sets. Given an undirected graph G = (V? E), an independent set of G is any subset T ? V such that no two i? j ? T are connected by an edge in E. An independent set is maximal if no proper superset thereof is itself an independent set. The size of a largest (maximal) independent set is the independence number of G, denoted by ?(G). If G is directed, we can still associate with it an independence number: we simply view G as undirected by ignoring arc orientation. If G = (V? D) is a directed graph, then a subset R ? V is a dominating set for G if for all j ?? R there exists some i ? R such that arc (i? j) ? D. In our bandit setting, a time-t dominating set Rt is a subset of actions with the property that the loss of any remaining action in round t can be observed by playing 4 Although we de?ned the problem in terms of losses, our analysis can be applied to the case when actions return rewards gi?t ? [0? 1] via the transformation ?i?t = 1 ? gi?t . 3 Algorithm 1: Exp3-SET algorithm (for the uninformed setting) Parameter: ? ? [0? 1] Initialize: wi?1 = 1 for all i ? V = {1? . . . ? K} For t = 1? 2? . . . : 1. Observation system {Si?t }i?V is generated but not disclosed ; ? wi?t 2. Set pi?t = for each i ? V , where Wt = wj?t ; Wi?t j?V 3. Play action It drawn according to distribution pt = (p1?t ? . . . ? pK?t ) ; 4. Observe pairs (i? ?i?t ) for all i ? SIt ?t ; 5. Observation system {Si?t }i?V is disclosed ; ? ? 6. For any i ? V set wi?t+1 = wi?t exp ?? ??i?t , where ?i?t I{i ? SIt ?t } ??i?t = qi?t and qi?t = ? pj?t . t j : j? ?i some action in Rt . A dominating set is minimal if no proper subset thereof is itself a dominating set. The domination number of directed graph G, denoted by ?(G), is the size of a smallest (minimal) dominating set of G. Computing a minimum dominating set for an arbitrary directed graph Gt is equivalent to solving a minimum set cover problem on the associated observation system {Si?t }i?V . Although minimum set cover is NP-hard, the well-known Greedy Set Cover algorithm [9], which repeatedly selects from {Si?t }i?V the set containing the largest number of uncovered elements so far, computes a dominating set Rt such that |Rt | ? ?(Gt ) (1 + ln K). Finally, we can also lift the notion of independence number of an undirected graph to directed graphs through the notion of maximum acyclic subgraphs: Given a directed graph G =? (V? D), ?an acyclic subgraph of G is any graph G? = (V ? ? D? ) such that V ? ? V , and D? = D ? V ? ? V ? , with no (directed) cycles. We denote by mas(G) = |V ? | the maximum size of such V ? . Note that when G is undirected (more precisely, as above, when G is a directed graph having for every pair of nodes i? j ? V either no arcs or length-two cycles), then mas(G) = ?(G), otherwise mas(G) ? ?(G). In particular, when G is itself a directed acyclic graph, then mas(G) = |V |. 3 Algorithms without Explicit Exploration: The Uninformed Setting In this section, we show that a simple variant of the Exp3 algorithm [3] obtains optimal regret (to within logarithmic factors) in the symmetric and uninformed setting. We then show that even the harder adversarial directed setting lends itself to an analysis, though with a weaker regret bound. Exp3-SET (Algorithm 1) runs Exp3 without mixing with the uniform distribution. Similar to Exp3, Exp3-SET uses loss estimates ??i?t that divide each observed loss ?i?t by the probability qi?t of obt serving it. This probability qi?t is simply the sum of all pj?t such that j ? ? i (the sum includes pi?t ). Next, we bound the regret of Exp3-SET in terms of the key quantity ? pi?t ? p ? i?t Qt = = . (1) qi?t pj?t t i?V i?V j : j? ?i Each term pi?t /qi?t can be viewed as the probability of drawing i from pt conditioned on the event that i was observed. Similar to [14], a key aspect to our analysis is the ability to deterministically and nonvacuously5 upper bound Qt in terms of certain quantities de?ned on {Si?t }i?V . We do so in two ways, either irrespective of how small each pi?t may be (this section) or depending on suitable lower bounds on the probabilities pi?t (Section 4). In fact, forcing lower bounds on pi?t is equivalent to adding exploration terms to the algorithm, which can be done only when knowing {Si?t }i?V before each prediction ?an information available only in the informed setting. 5 An obvious upper bound on Qt is K. 4 The following result is the building block for all subsequent results in the uninformed setting.6 Theorem 1 The regret of Exp3-SET satis?es T ? ln K ? ? ? + ?[Qt ] . max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? k?V ? 2 t=1 As we said, in the adversarial and symmetric case the observation system at time t can be described by an undirected graph Gt = (V? Et ). This is essentially the problem of [14], which they studied in the easier informed setting, where the same quantity Qt above arises in the analysis of their ELP algorithm. In their Lemma 3, they show that Qt ? ?(Gt ), irrespective of the choice of the probabilities pt . When applied to Exp3-SET, this immediately gives the following result. Corollary 2 In the symmetric setting, the regret of Exp3-SET satis?es T ? ? ln K ? ? + ?[?(Gt )] . max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? k?V ? 2 t=1 In particular, if for constants ?1 ? . . . ? ?T we have ?(Gt ) ? ?t , t = 1? . . . ? T , then setting ? = ? ? ?T (2 ln K) ? t=1 ?t , gives ? T ? ? ? ? ?t . max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? ?2(ln K) k?V t=1 The bounds proven in Corollary 2 are equivalent to those proven in [14] (Theorem 2 therein) for the ELP algorithm. Yet, our analysis is much simpler and, more importantly, our algorithm is simpler and more ef?cient than ELP, which requires solving a linear program at each step. Moreover, unlike ELP, Exp-SET does not require prior knowledge of the observation system {Si?t }i?V at the beginning of each step. We now turn to the directed setting. We start by considering a setting in which the observation system is stochastically generated. Then, we turn to the harder adversarial setting. The Erd?os-Renyi model is a standard model for random directed graphs G = (V? D), where we are given a density parameter r ? [0? 1] and, for any pair i? j ? V , arc (i? j) ? D with independent probability r.7 We have the following result. Corollary 3 Let Gt be generated according to the Erd?os-Renyi model with parameter r ? [0? 1]. Then the regret of Exp3-SET satis?es ? ? ln K ? ?T ? + max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? 1 ? (1 ? r)K . k?V ? 2r In the above, the expectations ?[?] are w.r.t. both the algorithm?s randomization and the random ? 2r ln K generation of Gt occurring at each round. In particular, setting ? = T ?1??1?r) K ) , gives ? ? ? 2(ln K)T (1 ? (1 ? r)K ) . max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? k?V r Note that as r ranges in [0? 1] we interpolate between the bandit (r = 0)8 and the expert (r = 1) regret bounds. When the observation system is generated by an adversary, we have the following result. Corollary 4 In the directed setting, the regret of Exp3-SET satis?es 6 7 8 T ? ? ln K ? ? ?[mas(Gt )] . + max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? k?V ? 2 t=1 All proofs are given in the supplementary material to this paper. Self loops, i.e., arcs ?i? i) are included by default here. K Observe that limr?0+ 1??1?r) = K. r 5 In particular, if for constants m1 ? . . . ? mT we have mas(Gt ) ? mt , t = 1? . . . ? T , then setting ? ? ?T ? = (2 ln K) t=1 mt , gives ? ? T ? ? ? ? ?L m . max ? L ? ?2(ln K) k?V A?T k?T t t=1 Observe that Corollary 4 is a strict generalization of Corollary 2 because, as we pointed out in Section 2, mas(Gt ) ? ?(Gt ), with equality holding when Gt is an undirected graph. As far as lower ?? bounds? are concerned, in the symmetric setting, the authors of [14] derive a lower bound of ? ?(G)T in the case when Gt = G for all t. We remark that similar to the symmetric ? ?? setting, we can derive a lower bound of ? ?(G)T . The simple observation is that given a directed graph G, we can de?ne a new graph G? which is made undirected just by reciprocating arcs; namely, if there is an arc (i? j) in G we add arcs (i? j) and (j? i) in G? . Note that ?(G) = ?(G? ). Since in G? the learner can only receive more information than in G, any lower bound on G also applies to G? . Therefore we derive the following corollary to the lower bound of [14] (Theorem 4 therein). Corollary 5 Fix a directed graph G, and suppose ? Gt =? G for all t. Then there exists a ?randomized) adversarial strategy such that for any T = ? ?(G)3 and for any learning strategy, the expected ? ?? regret of the learner is ? ?(G)T . Moreover, standard results in the theory of Erd?os-Renyi graphs, at least in the symmetric case (e.g., [11]), show that, when the density parameter r is constant, the independence number of the resulting graph has an inverse dependence on r. This ? fact, combined with the abovementioned lower bound of [14] gives a lower bound of the form Tr , matching (up to logarithmic factors) the upper bound of Corollary 3. One may wonder whether a sharper lower bound argument exists which applies to the general directed adversarial setting and involves the larger quantity mas(G). Unfortunately, the above measure does not seem to be related to the optimal regret: Using Claim 1 in the appendix (see proof of Theorem 3) one can exhibit a sequence of graphs each having a large acyclic subgraph, on which the regret of Exp3-SET is still small. The lack of a lower bound matching the upper bound provided by Corollary 4 is a good indication that something more sophisticated has to be done in order to upper bound Qt in (1). This leads us to consider more re?ned ways of allocating probabilities pi?t to nodes. In the next section, we show an allocation strategy that delivers optimal (to within logarithmic factors) regret bounds using prior knowledge of the graphs Gt . 4 Algorithms with Explicit Exploration: The Informed Setting We are still in the general scenario where graphs Gt are adversarially generated and directed, but now Gt is made available before prediction. We start by showing a simple example where our analysis of Exp3-SET inherently fails. This is due to the fact that, when the graph induced by the observation system is directed, the key quantity Qt de?ned in (1) cannot be nonvacuously upper bounded independent of the choice of probabilities pi?t . A way around it is to introduce a new algorithm, called Exp3-DOM, which controls probabilities pi?t by adding an exploration term to the distribution pt . This exploration term is supported on a dominating set of the current graph Gt . For this reason, Exp3-DOM requires prior access to a dominating set Rt at each time step t which, in turn, requires prior knowledge of the entire observation system {Si?t }i?V . As announced, the next result shows that, even for simple directed graphs, there exist distributions pt on the vertices such that Qt is linear in the number of nodes while the independence number is 1.9 Hence, nontrivial bounds on Qt can be found only by imposing conditions on distribution pt . 9 In this speci?c example, the maximum acyclic subgraph has size K, which con?rms the looseness of Corollary 4. 6 Algorithm 2: Exp3-DOM algorithm (for the uninformed setting) ? ? Input: Exploration parameters ? ?b) ? (0? 1] for b ? 0? 1? . . . ? ?log2 K? ? ? ?b) Initialization: wi?1 = 1 for all i ? V and b ? 0? 1? . . . ? ?log2 K? For t = 1? 2? . . . : 1. Observation system {Si?t }i?V is generated and disclosed ; 2. Compute a dominating set Rt ? V for Gt associated with {Si?t }i?V ; ? ? 3. Let bt be such that |Rt | ? 2bt ? 2bt +1 ? 1 ; ? ?b ) ?b ) 4. Set Wt t = i?V wi?tt ; ?b ) ? ? wi?tt ? ?bt ) ?b ) I{i ? Rt }; + 5. Set pi?tt = 1 ? ? ?bt ) ?bt ) |Rt | Wt ?bt ) 6. Play action It drawn according to distribution pt ? ?b ) ?b ) ? = p1?tt ? . . . ? pV?tt ; 7. Observe pairs (i? ?i?t ) for all i ? SIt ?t ; ? ? ?bt ) ?b ) ?b ) 8. For any i ? V set wi?t+1 = wi?tt exp ?? ?bt ) ??i?tt /2bt , where ?i?t ?b ) ??i?tt = ?b ) I{i ? SIt ?t } qi?tt ?b ) qi?tt = and ? ?b ) pj?tt . t j : j? ?i Fact 6 Let G = (V? D) be a total order on V = {1? . . . ? K}, i.e., such that for all i ? V , arc (j? i) ? D for all j = i + 1? . . . ? K. Let p = (p1 ? . . . ? pK ) be a distribution on V such that pi = 2?i , for i < K and pk = 2?K+1 . Then Q= K ? i=1 pi + p ?i j : j? ?i pj = K ? i=1 pi ?K j=i pj = K +1 . 2 We are now ready to introduce and analyze the new algorithm Exp3-DOM for the informed and directed setting. Exp3-DOM (see Algorithm 2) runs ?(log K) variants of Exp3 indexed by b = 0? 1? . . . ? ?log2 K?. At time t the algorithm is given observation system {Si?t }i?V , and computes a dominating set Rt of the directed graph Gt induced by {Si?t }i?V . Based on the size |Rt | of Rt , the algorithm uses instance bt = ?log2 |Rt |? to pick action It . We use a superscript b to denote the quantities relevant to the variant of Exp3 indexed by b. Similarly to the analysis of Exp3-SET, the key quantities are ?b) qi?t = ? j : i?Sj?t ? ?b) pj?t = ? ?b) pj?t and ?b) Qt = ? p?b) i?t ?b) i?V t j : j? ?i qi?t ? b = 0? 1? . . . ? ?log2 K? . ? Let T ?b) = t = 1? . . . ? T : |Rt | ? [2b ? 2b+1 ? 1] . Clearly, the sets T ?b) are a partition of the time ? steps {1? . . . ? T }, so that b |T ?b) | = T . Since the adversary adaptively chooses the dominating sets Rt , the sets T ?b) are random. This causes a problem in tuning the parameters ? ?b) . For this reason, we do not prove a regret bound for Exp3-DOM, where each instance uses a ?xed ? ?b) , but for a slight variant (described in the proof of Theorem 7 ?see the appendix) where each ? ?b) is set through a doubling trick. Theorem 7 In the directed case, the regret of Exp3-DOM satis?es ? ? ? ??? ?log2 K? ?b) b ? ? ? ? Qt ?? . ? 2 ln K + ? ?b) ? ? 1 + b+1 max ? LA?T ? Lk?T ? ?b) k?V 2 ? ?b) b=0 t?T 7 (2) Moreover, if we use a doubling trick to choose ? ?b) for each b = 0? . . . ? ?log2 K?, then ? ? ? ?? ? T ? ? ?? ? ? ?b ) max ? LA?T ? Lk?T = ? ?(ln K) ? ?? 4|Rt | + Qt t ? + (ln K) ln(KT )? . k?V (3) t=1 Importantly, the next result shows how bound (3) of Theorem 7 can be expressed in terms of the sequence ?(Gt ) of independence numbers of graphs Gt whenever the Greedy Set Cover algorithm [9] (see Section 2) is used to compute the dominating set Rt of the observation system at time t. Corollary 8 If Step 2 of Exp3-DOM uses the Greedy Set Cover algorithm to compute the dominating sets Rt , then the regret of Exp-DOM with doubling trick satis?es ? ? ? ? T ? ? ? ? ?(Gt ) + ln(K) ln(KT )? max ? LA?T ? Lk?T = ? ?ln(K)?ln(KT ) k?V t=1 where, for each t, ?(Gt ) is the independence number of the graph Gt induced by observation system {Si?t }i?V . Comparing Corollary 8 to Corollary 5 delivers the announced characherization in the general adversarial and directed setting. Moreover, a quick comparison between Corollary 2 and Corollary 8 reveals that a symmetric observation system overcomes the advantage of working in an informed setting: The bound we obtained for the uninformed symmetric setting (Corollary 2) is sharper by logarithmic factors than the one we derived for the informed ?but more general, i.e., directed? setting (Corollary 8). 5 Conclusions and work in progress We have investigated online prediction problems in partial information regimes that interpolate between the classical bandit and expert settings. We have shown a number of results characterizing prediction performance in terms of: the structure of the observation system, the amount of information available before prediction, the nature (adversarial or fully random) of the process generating the observation system. Our results are substantial improvements over the paper [14] that initiated this interesting line of research. Our improvements are diverse, and range from considering both informed and uninformed settings to delivering more re?ned graph-theoretic characterizations, from providing more ef?cient algorithmic solutions to relying on simpler (and often more general) analytical tools. Some research directions we are currently pursuing are the following: (1) We are currently investigating the extent to which our results could be applied to the case when the observation system {Si?t }i?V may depend on the loss ?It ?t of player?s action It . Note that this would prevent a direct construction of an unbiased estimator for unobserved losses, which many worst-case bandit algorithms (including ours ?see the appendix) hinge upon. (2) The upper bound contained in Corollary 4 and expressed in terms of mas(?) is almost certainly suboptimal, even in the uninformed setting, and we are trying to see if more adequate graph complexity measures can be used instead. (3) Our lower bound in Corollary 5 heavily relies on the corresponding lower bound in [14] which, in turn, refers to a constant graph sequence. We would like to provide a more complete charecterization applying to sequences of adversarially-generated graphs G1 ? G2 ? . . . ? GT in terms of sequences of their corresponding independence numbers ?(G1 )? ?(G2 )? . . . ? ?(GT ) (or variants thereof), in both the uninformed and the informed settings. (4) All our upper bounds rely on parameters to be tuned as a function of sequences of observation system quantities (e.g., the sequence of independence numbers). We are trying to see if an adaptive learning rate strategy a` la [4], based on the observable quantities Qt , could give similar results without such a prior knowledge. Acknowledgments NA was supported in part by an ERC advanced grant, by a USA-Israeli BSF grant, and by the Israeli I-CORE program. NCB acknowledges partial support by MIUR (project ARS TechnoMedia, PRIN 2010-2011, grant no. 2010N5K7EB 003). YM was supported in part by a grant from the Israel Science Foundation, a grant from the United States-Israel Binational Science Foundation (BSF), a grant by Israel Ministry of Science and Technology and the Israeli Centers of Research Excellence (I-CORE) program (Center No. 4/11). 8 References [1] N. Alon and J. H. Spencer. The probabilistic method. John Wiley ? Sons, 2004. [2] Jean-Yves Audibert and S?ebastien Bubeck. Minimax policies for adversarial and stochastic bandits. In COLT, 2009. [3] Peter Auer, Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi, Yoav Freund, and Robert E. Schapire. The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem. SIAM Journal on Computing, 32(1):48?77, 2002. [4] Peter Auer, Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi, and Claudio Gentile. Adaptive and self-con?dent on-line learning algorithms. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 64(1):48?75, 2002. [5] Y. Caro. New results on the independence number. In Tech. Report, Tel-Aviv University, 1979. [6] N. Cesa-Bianchi, Y. Freund, D. Haussler, D. P. Helmbold, R. E. Schapire, and M. K. Warmuth. How to use expert advice. J. ACM, 44(3):427?485, 1997. [7] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, learning, and games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [8] Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi and G?abor Lugosi. 78(5):1404?1422, 2012. Combinatorial bandits. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., [9] V. Chvatal. A greedy heuristic for the set-covering problem. Mathematics of Operations Research, 4(3):233?235, 1979. [10] Yoav Freund and Robert E. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. In Euro-COLT, pages 23?37. Springer-Verlag, 1995. Also, JCSS 55(1): 119-139 (1997). [11] A. M. Frieze. On the independence number of random graphs. Discrete Mathematics, 81:171? 175, 1990. [12] A. Kalai and S. Vempala. Ef?cient algorithms for online decision problems. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 71:291?307, 2005. [13] Nick Littlestone and Manfred K. Warmuth. The weighted majority algorithm. Information and Computation, 108:212?261, 1994. [14] S. Mannor and O. Shamir. From bandits to experts: On the value of side-observations. In 25th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems ?NIPS 2011), 2011. [15] Alan Said, Ernesto W De Luca, and Sahin Albayrak. How social relationships affect user similarities. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces Workshop on Social Recommender Systems, Hong Kong, 2010. [16] V. G. Vovk. Aggregating strategies. In COLT, pages 371?386, 1990. [17] V. K. Wey. A lower bound on the stability number of a simple graph. In Bell Lab. Tech. Memo No. 81-11217-9, 1981. 9
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Eluder Dimension and the Sample Complexity of Optimistic Exploration Benjamin Van Roy Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 [email protected] Daniel Russo Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 [email protected] Abstract This paper considers the sample complexity of the multi-armed bandit with dependencies among the arms. Some of the most successful algorithms for this problem use the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty to guide exploration. The clearest example of this is the class of upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithms, but recent work has shown that a simple posterior sampling algorithm, sometimes called Thompson sampling, can be analyzed in the same manner as optimistic approaches. In this paper, we develop a regret bound that holds for both classes of algorithms. This bound applies broadly and can be specialized to many model classes. It depends on a new notion we refer to as the eluder dimension, which measures the degree of dependence among action rewards. Compared to UCB algorithm regret bounds for specific model classes, our general bound matches the best available for linear models and is stronger than the best available for generalized linear models. 1 Introduction Consider a politician trying to elude a group of reporters. She hopes to keep her true position hidden from the reporters, but each piece of information she provides must be new, in the sense that it?s not a clear consequence of what she has already told them. How long can she continue before her true position is pinned down? This is the essence of what we call the eluder dimension. We show this notion controls the rate at which algorithms using optimistic exploration converge to optimality. We consider an optimization problem faced by an agent who is uncertain about how her actions influence performance. The agent selects actions sequentially, and upon each action observes a reward. A reward function governs the mean reward of each action. As rewards are observed the agent learns about the reward function, and this allows her to improve behavior. Good performance requires adaptively sampling actions in a way that strikes an effective balance between exploring poorly understood actions and exploiting previously acquired knowledge to attain high rewards. Unless the agent has prior knowledge of the structure of the mean payoff function, she can only learn to attain near optimal performance by exhaustively sampling each possible action. In this paper, we focus on problems where there is a known relationship among the rewards generated by different actions, potentially allowing the agent to learn without exploring every action. Problems of this form are often referred to as multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems with dependent arms. A notable example is the ?linear bandit? problem, where actions are described by a finite number of features and the reward function is linear in these features. Several researchers have studied algorithms for such problems and established theoretical guarantees that have no dependence on the number of actions [1, 2, 3]. Instead, their bounds depend on the linear dimension of the class of reward functions. In this paper, we assume that the reward function lies in a known but otherwise arbitrary class of uniformly bounded real-valued functions, and provide theoretical guarantees that 1 depend on more general measures of the complexity of the class of functions. Our analysis of this abstract framework yields a result that applies broadly, beyond the scope of specific problems that have been studied in the literature, and also identifies fundamental insights that unify more specialized prior results. The guarantees we provide apply to two popular classes of algorithms for the stochastic MAB: upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithms and Thompson sampling. Each algorithm is described in Section 3. The aforementioned papers on the linear bandit problem study UCB algorithms [1, 2, 3]. Other authors have studied UCB algorithms in cases where the reward function is Lipschitz continuous [4, 5], sampled from a Gaussian process [6], or takes the form of a generalized [7] or sparse [8] linear model. More generally, there is an immense literature on this approach to balancing between exploration and exploitation, including work on bandits with independent arms [9, 10, 11, 12], reinforcement learning [13, 14], and Monte Carlo Tree Search [15]. Recently, a simple posterior sampling algorithm called Thompson sampling was shown to share a close connection with UCB algorithms [16]. This connection enables us to study both types of algorithms in a unified manner. Though it was first proposed in 1933 [17], Thompson sampling has until recently received relatively little attention. Interest in the algorithm grew after empirical studies [18, 19] demonstrated performance exceeding state-of the-art methods. Strong theoretical guarantees are now available for an important class of problems with independent arms [20, 21, 22]. A recent paper considers the application of this algorithm to a linear contextual bandit problem [23]. To our knowledge, few other papers have studied MAB problems in a general framework like the one we consider. There is work that provides general bounds for contextual bandit problems where the context space is allowed to be infinite, but the action space is small (see e.g., [24]). Our model captures contextual bandits as a special case, but we emphasize problem instances with large or infinite action sets, and where the goal is to learn without sampling every possible action. The closest related work to ours is that of Amin et al. [25], who consider the problem of learning the optimum of a function that lies in a known, but otherwise arbitrary set of functions. They provide bounds based on a new notion of dimension, but unfortunately this notion does not provide a guarantee for the algorithms we consider. We provide bounds on expected regret over a time horizon T that are, up to a logarithmic factor, of order v   u udimE F, T ?2 log N F, T ?2 , k?k? T . t| {z }| {z } Eluder dimension log?covering number This quantity depends on the class of reward functions F through two measures of complexity. Each captures the approximate structure of the class of functions at a scale T ?2 that depends on the time horizon. The first measures the growth rate of the covering numbers of F, and is closely related to measures of complexity that are common in the supervised learning literature. This quantity roughly captures the sensitivity of F to statistical over-fitting. The second measure, the eluder dimension, is a new notion we introduce. This captures how effectively the value of unobserved actions can be inferred from observed samples. We highlight in Section 4.1 why notions of dimension common to the supervised learning literature are insufficient for our purposes. Finally, we show that our more general result when specialized to linear models recovers the strongest known regret bound and in the case of generalized linear models yields a bound stronger than that established in prior literature. 2 Problem Formulation We consider a model involving a set of actions A and a set of real-valued functions F = {f? : A 7? R| ? ? ?}, indexed by a parameter that takes values from an index set ?. We will define random variables with respect to a probability space (?, F, P). A random variable ? indexes the true reward function f? . At each time t, the agent is presented with a possibly random subset At ? A and selects an action At ? At , after which she observes a reward Rt . We denote by Ht the history (A1 , A1 , R1 , . . . , At?1 , At?1 , Rt?1 , At ) of observations available to the agent when choosing an action At . The agent employs a policy ? = {?t |t ? N}, which is a deterministic sequence of functions, each mapping the history Ht to a probability distribution over actions A. For each realization of Ht , ?t (Ht ) is a distribution over A with support At . The action At 2 is selected by sampling from the distribution ?t (?), so that P(At ? ?|Ht ) = ?t (Ht ). We assume that E[Rt |Ht , ?, At ] = f? (At ). In other words, the realized reward is the mean-reward value corrupted by zero-mean noise. We will also assume that for each f ? F and t ? N, arg maxa?At f (a) is nonempty with probability one, though algorithms and results can be generalized to handle cases where this assumption does not hold. We fix constants C > 0 and ? > 0 and impose two further simplifying assumptions. The first concerns boundedness of reward functions. Assumption 1. For all f ? F and a ? A, f (a) ? [0, C]. Our second assumption ensures that observation noise is light-tailed. We say a random variable X is ?-sub-Gaussian if E[exp(?X)] ? exp(?2 ? 2 /2) almost surely for all ?. Assumption 2. For all t ? N, Rt ? f? (At ) conditioned on (Ht , ?, At ) is ?-sub-Gaussian. We let A?t ? arg maxa?At f? (a) denote the optimal action at time t. The T period regret is the random variable T X R(T, ?) = [f? (A?t ) ? f? (At )] , t=1 where the actions {At : t ? N} are selected according to ?. We sometimes study expected regret E[R(T, ?)], where the expectation is taken over the prior distribution of ?, the reward noise, and the algorithm?s internal randomization. This quantity is sometimes called Bayes risk or Bayesian regret. Similarly, we study conditional expected regret E [R(T, ?) | ?], which integrates over all randomness in the system except for ?. Example 1. Contextual Models. The contextual multi-armed bandit model is a special case of the formulation presented above. In such a model, an exogenous Markov process Xt taking values in a set X influences rewards. In particular, the expected reward at time t is given by f? (a, Xt ). However, this is mathematically equivalent to a problem with stochastic time-varying decision sets At . In particular, one can define the set of actions to be the set of state-action pairs A := {(x, a) : x ? A, a ? A(x)}, and the set of available actions to be At = {(Xt , a) : a ? A(Xt )}. 3 Algorithms We will establish performance bounds for two classes of algorithms: Thompson sampling and UCB algorithms. As background, we discuss the algorithms in this section. We also provide an example of each type of algorithm that is designed to address the ?linear bandit? problem. UCB Algorithms: UCB algorithms have received a great deal of attention in the MAB literature. Here we describe a very broad class of UCB algorithms. We say that a confidence set is a random subset Ft ? F that is measurable with respect to ?(Ht ). Typically, Ft is constructed so that it contains f? with high probability. We denote by ? F1:? a UCB algorithm that makes use of a sequence of confidence sets {Ft : t ? N}. At each time t, such an algorithm selects the action At ? arg max sup f (a), a?At f ?Ft where sup f (a) is an optimistic estimate of f? (a) representing the greatest value that is statistically f ?Ft plausible at time t. Optimism encourages selection of poorly-understood actions, which leads to informative observations. As data accumulates, optimistic estimates are adapted, and this process of exploration and learning converges toward optimal behavior. In this paper, we will assume for simplicity that the maximum defining At is attained. Results can be generalized to handle cases when this technical condition does not hold. Unfortunately, for natural choices of Ft , it may be exceptionally difficult to solve for such an action. Thankfully, all results in this paper also apply to a posterior sampling algorithm that avoids this hard optimization problem. Thompson sampling: The Thompson sampling algorithm simply samples each action according to the probability it is optimal. In particular, the algorithm applies action sampling distributions ?tTS (Ht ) = P (A?t ? ? | Ht ), where A?t is a random variable that satisfies A?t ? arg maxa?At f? (a). Practical implementations typically operate by at each time t sampling an index ??t ? ? from the distribution P (? ? ? | Ht ) and then generating an action At ? arg maxa?At f??t (a). 3 Algorithm 1 Linear UCB 1: Initialize: Select d linearly independent actions 2: Update Statistics: ??t ? OLS estimate of ? Pt?1 ?t ?  k=1 ?(A?k )?(A?k )T  ? ? ?t ? ? : ? ? ?t ? ? d log t Algorithm 2 Linear Thompson sampling 1: Sample Model: ??t ? N (?t , ?t ) 2: Select Action: At ? arg maxa?A h?(a), ??t i 3: Update Statistics: ?t+1 ? E[?|Ht+1 ] ?t+1 ? E[(? ? ?t+1 )(? ? ?t+1 )> |Ht+1 ] 4: Increment t and Goto Step 1 ?t 3: Select Action: At ? arg maxa?A {max???t h?(a), ?i} 4: Increment t and Goto Step 2 Algorithms for Linear Bandits: Here we provide an example of a Thompson sampling and a UCB algorithm, each of which addresses a problem in which the reward function is linear in a ddimensional vector ?. In particular, there is a known feature mapping ? : A ? Rd such that an action a yields expected reward f? (a) = h?(a), ?i. Algorithm 1 is a variation of one proposed by Rusmevichientong and Tsitsiklis [3] to address such problems. Given past observations, the algorithm constructs a confidence ellipsoid ?t centered around a Dleast squares ??t and employs E estimate q ? the upper confidence bound Ut (a) := max???t ?(a), ? = ?(a), ?t + ? d log(t) k?(a)k??1 . t The term k?(a)k??1 captures the amount of previous exploration in the direction ?(a), and causes t q the ?uncertainty bonus? ? d log(t) k?(a)k??1 to diminish as the number of observations increases. t Now, consider Algorithm 2. Here we assume ? is drawn from a normal distribution N (?1 , ?1 ). We consider a linear reward function f? (a) = h?(a), ?i and assume the reward noise Rt ? f? (At ) is normally distributed and independent from (Ht , At , ?). It is easy to show that, conditioned on the history Ht , ? remains normally distributed. Algorithm 2 presents an implementation of Thompson sampling for this problem. The expectations can be computed efficiently via Kalman filtering. 4 Notions of Dimension Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the development of regret bounds for linear UCB algorithms [1, 2, 3, 26]. These papers show that for a broad class of problems, a variant ??? of ? ? ? T ) and E [R(T, ? ? ) | ?] = O(d T ). Algorithm 1 satisfies the upper bounds E [R(T, ? ? )] = O(d An interesting feature of these bounds is that they have no dependence on the number actions in A, and instead depend only on the linear dimension of the set of functions F. Our goal is to provide bounds that depend on more general measures of the complexity of the class of functions. This section introduces a new notion, the eluder dimension, on which our bounds will depend. First, we highlight why common notions from statistical learning theory do not suffice when it comes to multi?armed bandit problems. 4.1 Vapnik-Chervonenkis Dimension We begin with an example that illustrates how a class of functions that is learnable in constant time in a supervised learning context may require an arbitrarily long duration when learning to optimize. Example 2. Consider a finite class of binary-valued functions F = {f? : A 7? {0, 1} | ? ? {1, . . . , n}} over a finite action set A = {1, . . . , n}. Let f? (a) = 1(? = a), so that each function is an indicator for an action. To keep things simple, assume that Rt = f? (At ), so that there is no noise. If ? is uniformly distributed over {1, . . . , n}, it is easy to see that the regret of any algorithm grows linearly with n. For large n, until ? is discovered, each sampled action is unlikely to reveal much about ? and learning therefore takes very long. Consider the closely related supervised learning problem in which at each time an action A?t is sampled uniformly from A and the mean?reward value f? (A?t ) is observed. For large n, the time it 4 takes to effectively learn to predict f? (A?t ) given A?t does not depend on t. In particular, prediction error converges to 1/n in constant time. Note that predicting 0 at every time already achieves this low level of error. In the preceding example, the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension, which characterizes the sample complexity of supervised learning, is 1. On the other hand, the eluder-dimension, which will we define below, is n. To highlight conceptual differences between the eluder dimension and the VC dimension, we will now define VC dimension in a way analogous to how will define eluder dimension. We begin with a notion of independence. Definition 1. An action a is VC-independent of A? ? A if for any f, f? ? F there exists some f? ? F ? that is, f?(a) = f (a) and f?(? ? which agrees with f on a and with f? on A; a) = f?(? a) for all a ? ? A. ? Otherwise, a is VC-dependent on A. By this definition, an action a is said to be VC-dependent on A? if knowing the values f ? F takes on A? could restrict the set of possible values at a. This notion of independence is intimately related to the VC dimension of a class of functions. In fact, it can be used to define VC dimension. Definition 2. The VC dimension of a class of binary-valued functions with domain A is the largest ? {a}. cardinality of a set A? ? A such that every a ? A? is VC-independent of A\ In the above example, any two actions are VC-dependent because knowing the label f? (a) of one action could completely determine the value of the other action. However, this only happens if the sampled action has label 1. If it has label 0, one cannot infer anything about the value of the other action. Instead of capturing the fact that one could gain useful information through exploration, we need a stronger requirement that guarantees one will gain useful information. 4.2 Defining Eluder Dimension Here we define the eluder dimension of a class of functions, which plays a key role in our results. Definition 3. An action a ? A is -dependent on actions {a1 , ..., an } ? A with respect to F if any qP n pair of functions f, f? ? F satisfying (f (ai ) ? f?(ai ))2 ?  also satisfies f (a) ? f?(a) ? . i=1 Further, a is -independent of {a1 , .., an } with respect to F if a is not -dependent on {a1 , .., an }. Intuitively, an action a is independent of {a1 , ..., an } if two functions that make similar predictions at {a1 , ..., an } can nevertheless differ significantly in their predictions at a. The above definition measures the ?similarity? of predictions at -scale, and measures whether qP two functions make similar n predictions at {a1 , ..., an } based on the cumulative discrepancy (f (ai ) ? f?(ai ))2 . This i=1 measure of dependence suggests using the following notion of dimension. Definition 4. The -eluder dimension dimE (F, ) is the length d of the longest sequence of elements in A such that, for some 0 ? , every element is 0 -independent of its predecessors. Recall that a vector space has dimension d if and only if d is the length of the longest sequence of elements such that each element is linearly independent or equivalently, 0-independent of its predecessors. Definition 4 replaces the requirement of linear independence with -independence. This extension is advantageous as it captures both nonlinear dependence and approximate dependence. 5 Confidence Bounds and Regret Decompositions A key to our analysis is recent observation [16] that the regret of both Thompson sampling and a UCB algorithm can be decomposed in terms of confidence sets. Define the width of a subset F? ? F at an action a ? A by  wF? (a) = sup f (a) ? f (a) . (1) ? f ,f ?F ? This is a worst?case measure of the uncertainty about the payoff f? (a) at a given that f? ? F. 5 Proposition 1. Fix any sequence {Ft : t ? N}, where Ft ? F is measurable with respect to ?(Ht ). Then for any T ? N, with probability 1, R(T, ? F1:? ) ? T X [wFt (At ) + C1(f? ? / Ft )] (2) t=1 T X   E R(T, ? TS ) ? E [wFt (At ) + C1(f? ? / Ft )] . (3) t=1 If the confidence sets Ft are constructed to contain f? with high probability, this proposition essenPT tially bounds regret in terms of the sum of widths t=1 wFt (At ). In this sense, the decomposition bounds regret only in terms of uncertainty about the actions A1 ,..,At that the algorithm has actually sampled. As actions are sampled, the value of f? (?) at those actions is learned accurately, and hence we expect that the width wFt (?) of the confidence sets should diminish over time. It is worth noting that the regret bound of the UCB algorithm ? F1:? depends on the specific confidence sets {Ft : t ? N} used by the algorithm whereas the bound of ? TS applies for any sequence of confidence sets. However, the decomposition (3) holds only in expectation under the prior distribution. The implications of these decompositions are discussed further in earlier work [16]. In the next section, we design abstract confidence sets Ft that are shown to contain the true function PT f? with high probability. Then, in Section 7 we give a worst case bound on the sum t=1 wFt (At ) in terms of the eluder dimension of the class of functions F. When combined with Proposition 1, this analysis provides regret bounds for both Thompson sampling and for a UCB algorithm. 6 Construction of confidence sets The abstract confidence sets we construct are centered around least squares estimates f?tLS ? Pt?1 2 arg minf ?F L2,t (f ) where L2,t (f ) = squared predic1 (f (At ) ? Rt ) is the cumulative ? 1 LS ? tion error. The sets take the form Ft := {f ? F : kf ? ft k2,Et ? ?t } where ?t is an appropriately chosen confidence parameter, and the empirical 2-norm k?k2,Et is defined by Pt?1 2 2 kgk2,Et = 1 g 2 (Ak ). Hence kf ? f? k2,Et measures the cumulative discrepancy between the previous predictions of f and f? . The following lemma is the key to constructing strong confidence sets (Ft : t ? N). For an arbitrary function f , it bounds the squared error of f from below in terms of the empirical loss of the true 2 function f? and the aggregate empirical discrepancy kf ? f? k2,Et between f and f? . It establishes that for any function f , with high probability, the random process (L2,t (f ) : t ? N) never falls below the process (L2,t (f? ) + 12 kf ? f? k22,Et : t ? N) by more than a fixed constant. A proof of the lemma is provided in the appendix. Recall that ? is a constant given in Assumption 2. Lemma 1. For any ? > 0 and f : A 7? R,   1 2 2 P L2,t (f ) ? L2,t (f? ) + kf ? f? k2,Et ? 4? log (1/?) ?t ? N ? ? 1 ? ?. 2 By Lemma 1, with high probability, f can enjoy lower squared error than f? only if its empirical 2 deviation kf ? f? k2,Et from f? is less than 8? 2 log(1/?). Through a union bound, this property holds uniformly for all functions in a finite subset of F. To extend this result to infinite classes of functions, we measure the function class at some discretization scale ?. Let N (F, ?, k?k? ) denote the ?-covering number of F in the sup-norm k ? k? , and let   p ?t? (F, ?, ?) := 8? 2 log (N (F, ?, k?k? )/?) + 2?t 8C + 8? 2 ln(4t2 /?) . (4) 1 The results can be extended to the case where the infimum of L2,t (f ) is unattainable by selecting a function with squared prediction error sufficiently close to the infimum. 6 Proposition 2. For all ? > 0 and ? > 0, if  Ft = f ? F : f ? f?tLS 2,Et for all t ? N, then P f? ? ? \ t=1 p ? ?t? (F, ?, ?)  ! Ft ? ? 1 ? 2?. d Example 3. Suppose ? ? [0, 1] and for each a ? A, f? (a) is an L?Lipschitz function of ?. Then N (F, ?, k ? k? ) ? (1 + L/)d and hence log N (F, ?, k ? k? ) ? d log(1 + L/). 7 Measuring the rate at which confidence sets shrink PT Our remaining task is to provide a worst case bound on the sum 1 wFt (At ). First consider the case of a linearly parameterized model where f? (a) := h?(a), ?i for each ? ? ? ? Rd . Then, it can be shown that our confidence set takes the form Ft := {f? : ? ? ?t } where ?t ? Rd is an ellipsoid. When an action At is sampled, the ellipsoid shrinks in the direction ?(At ). Here the explicit geometric structure of the confidence set implies that the width wFt shrinks not only at At but also at any other action whose feature vector is not orthogonal to ?(At ). Some linear PT algebra leads to a worst case bound on 1 wFt (At ). For a general class of functions, the situation is much subtler, and we need to measure the way in which the width at each action can be reduced by sampling other actions. The following result uses our new notion of dimension to bound the number of times the width of the confidence interval for a selected action At can exceed a threshold. Proposition 3. If (?t ? 0|t ? N) is a nondecreasing sequence and Ft := {f ? F : kf ? ? f?tLS k2,Et ? ?t } then with probability 1 T X  1(wFt (At ) > ) ? t=1  4?T + 1 dimE (F, ) 2 for all T ? N and  > 0. PT Using Proposition 3, one can bound the sum t=1 wFt (At ), as established by the following lemma. To extend our analysis to infinite classes of functions, we consider the ?TF ?eluder dimension of F, where   1 ?tF = max 2 , inf {kf1 ? f2 k? : f1 , f2 ? F, f1 6= f2 } . (5) t Lemma 2. If (?t ? 0|t ? N) is a nondecreasing sequence and Ft := {f ? F : kf ? f?tLS k2,Et ? ? ?t } then with probability 1, for all T ? N, T X wFt (At ) ? t=1 8   1 + min dimE F, ?TF , T C + 4 T q  dimE F, ?TF ?T T . (6) Main Result Our analysis provides a new guarantee both for Thompson sampling, and for a UCB algorithm ? ? F1:? executed with appropriate confidence sets {Ft? : t ? N}. Recall, for a sequence of conF1:? fidence sets {F the UCB algorithm that chooses an action A?t ?  t : t ? N} we denote by ? arg maxa?A supf ?Ft f? (a) at each time t. We establish bounds that are, up to a logarithmic factor, of order v   u udimE F, T ?2 log N F, T ?2 , k?k? T . t| {z }| {z } Eluder dimension log?covering number 7 This term depends on two measures of the complexity of the function class F. The first, which controls for statistical over?fitting, grows logarithmically in the cover numbers of the function class. This is a common feature of notions of dimension from statistical learning theory. The second measure of complexity, the eluder dimension, measures the extent to which the reward value at one action can be inferred by sampling other actions. The next two propositions, which provide finite time bounds for a particular UCB algorithm and for Thompson sampling, follow by combining Proposition 1, Propsition 2, and Lemma 2. Define, q      1  B(F, T, ?) = + min dimE F, ?TF , T C + 4 dimE F, ?TF ?T? F, ?TF , ? T . T Notice that B(F, T, ?) is the right hand side of the bound (6) with ?T taken to be ?T? (F, ?TF , ?). Proposition 4. Fix any ? > 0 and T ? N, and define for each t ? N, Ft? =  p ? ?t? (F, ?T , ?) . Then, f ? F : f ? f?tLS 2,Et n o ? P R(T, ? F1:? ) ? B(F, T, ?) | ? ? 1 ? 2? h i ? E R(T, ? F1:? ) | ? ? B(F, T, ?) + 2?T C Proposition 5. For any T ? N,   E R(T, ? TS ) ? B(F, T, T ?1 ) + 2C The next two examples show how the regret bounds of Proposition 4 and 5 specialize to ddimensional linear and generalized linear models. For each of these examples ? ? Rd and each action is associated with a known feature vector ?(a). Throughout these two examples, we fix positive constants ? and s and assume that ? ? supa?A k?(a)k and s ? sup??? k?k. For each of these examples, a bound on dimE (F, ) is provided in the supplementary material. Example 4. Linear Models: Consider the case of a d-dimensional linear model f? (a) := h?(a), ?i. Then, dimE (F, ) = O(d log(1/)) Proposi? and log N (F, , k?k? ) =FO(d log(1/)). ?2 F tions 4 and 5 therefore yield O(d log(1/?T ) T ) regret bounds. Since ?T ? T , This is tight to within a factor of log T [3], and matches the best available bound for a linear UCB algorithm [2]. Example 5. Generalized Linear Models: Consider the case of a d-dimensional generalized linear model f? (a) := g (h?(a), ?i) where g is an increasing Lipschitz continuous func0 0 ? ? tion. Set h = sup?,a Then, ? g (h?(a), ?i), h = inf ?,a ? g (h?(a), ?i) and r = h/h. 2 log N (F, , k?k? ) = O(d log(h/)) and dim (F, ) = O(dr log(h/)), and Propositions 4 and E ? F 5 yield O(rd log(h/?T ) T ) regret bounds. To our knowledge, this bound is a slight improvement over the strongest regret bound available ? for any algorithm in this setting. The regret bound of Filippi et al. [7] is of order rd log3/2 (T ) T . 9 Conclusion In this paper, we have analyzed two algorithms, Thompson sampling and a UCB algorithm, in a very general framework, and developed regret bounds that depend on a new notion of dimension. In constructing these bounds, we have identified two factors that control the hardness of a particular multi-armed bandit problem. First, an agent?s ability to quickly attain near-optimal performance depends on the extent to which the reward value at one action can be inferred by sampling other actions. However, in order to select an action the agent must make inferences about many possible actions, and an error in its evaluation of any one could result in large regret. Our second measure of complexity controls for the difficulty of maintaining appropriate confidence sets simultaneously at every action. While our bounds are nearly tight in some cases, further analysis is likely to yield stronger results in other cases. We hope, however, that our work provides a conceptual foundation for the study of such problems, and inspires further investigation. Acknowledgments The first author is supported by a Burt and Deedee McMurty Stanford Graduate Fellowship. This work was supported in part by Award CMMI-0968707 from the National Science Foundation. 8 References [1] V. Dani, T.P. Hayes, and S.M. Kakade. 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SINGLE NEURON MODEL: RESPONSE TO WEAK MODULATION IN THE PRESENCE OF NOISE A. R. Bu/,ara and E. W. Jaco6, Naval Ocean Syat.em.a Cenw, Materials Reaean:h Branch, San Diego, CA 92129 F.Mou Physics Dept.., Univ. of Missouri, St. Louis, MO 63121 ABSTRACT We consider a noisy bist.able single neuron model driven by a periodic external modulation. The modulation introduces a correlated switching between st.ates driven by the noise . The information flow through the system from the modulation to the output switching events, leads to a succession of strong peaks in the power spectrum. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) obtained from this power spectrum is a measure of the information content in the neuron response . With increasing noise intensity, the SNR passes t.hrough a maximum, an effect which has been called stochastic resonance. We treat t.he problem wit.hin the framework of a recently developed approximate theory, valid in the limits of weak noise intensity, weak periodic forcing and low forcing frequency. A comparison of the results of this theory with those obtained from a linear syst.em FFT is also presented . INTRODUCTION Recently, there has been an upsurge of interest in s1ngie or few-neuron nonlinear dynamics (see e.g. Li and Hopfield~ 1989; Tuckwell, 1988; Paulus, Gass and Mandell, 1990; Aihara, Takake and Toyoda, 1990). However, the precise relationship between the manyneuron connected model and a single effect.ive neuron dynamics has not been examined in detail. Schieve, Bulsara and Davis (1991) have considered a network of N symmetrically interconnected neurons embodied} for example in the "connectionist." models of Hopfield (1982, 1984) or Shamma (1989) \the latter corresponding to a mammalian auditory network). Through an adiabatic elimination procedure, they have obtained, in closed form, the dynamics of a single neuron from the system of coupled differential equations describing the N-neuron problem . The problem has been treated both deterministically and stochastically (through the inclusion of additive and multiplicative noise terms). It. is important. to point. out that the work of Schieve, Bulsara, and Davis does not include a prion' a self-coupling term, although the inclusion of such a term can be readily implemented in their theory; this has been done by Bulsara and Schieve (1991) . Rather, t.heir theory results in an explicit. form of t.he self-coupling term, in terms of the parameters of the remaining neurons in the net.work . This term, in effect, renormalizes the self-coupling t.erm in the Shamma and Hopfield models. The reduced or "effect.ive" neuron model is expected to reproduce some of the gross features of biological neurons. The fact that simple single neuron models, such as the model t.o be considered in this work, can indeed reproduce several feat.ures observed in bi~ logical experiments has been strikingly demonstrated by Longtin, Bulsara and Moss (1991) through their construction of the inter-spike-interval histograms (ISIHs) using a Schmidt trigger to model the neuron. The results of their simple model agree remarkably well with data obtained in two different experiments (on the auditory nerve fiber of squirrel monkey (Rose, Brugge, Andersen and Hind, 1967) and on the cat visual cort.ex (Siegal, 1990)), In this work, we consider such a "reduced" neural element subject to a weak periodic external modulation . The modulation int.roduces a correlat.ed switching between the 67 68 Buisara, Jacobs, and Moss bistable states, driven by the noise with the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) obtained from the power spectrum, being taken as a measure of the information content in the neuron response. As the additive noise variance increases, the SNR passes through a maximum. This effect has been called wstochastic resonance and describes a phenomenon in which the noise actually enhances the information content, i.e., the observability of the signal. Stochastic resonance has been observed in a modulated ring laser experiment (McNamara, Wiesenfeld and Roy, 1988; Vemuri and Roy, 1989) as well as in electron paramagnetic resonanCe experiments (Gammaitoni, Martinelli, Pardi and Santucci, 1991) and in a modulated magnetoselastic ribbon (Spano and Ditto, 1991). The introduction at multiplicative noise (in the coefficient of the sigmoid transfer function) tends to degrade this effect. W THE MODEL; STOCHASTIC RESONANCE The reduced neuron model consists of a single Hopfield-type computational element, which may be modeled as a R-C circuit with nonlinear feedback provided by an operational amplifier having a sigmoid transfer function. The equation (which may be rigorously derived from a fully connected network model as outlined in the preceding section) may be cast in the form, i + a x - b ta.nhx = Xo+ F(t), (1) where F( tJ is Gaussian delta-correlated noise with zero mean and variance 2D, Xo bein9 a dc input (which we set equal to zero for the remainder of this work) . An analysis of including multiplicative noise effects, has been given by Bulsara, Boss and Jacobs (1989 . For the purposes of the current work , we note that the neuron may be treated as a partic e in a one-dimensional potential given by, lIl' U(x) a x = -22 b In cosh x , (2) x being the one-dimensional state variable representing the membrane potential . In eral, the coefficients a and b depend on the details of the interaction of our reference ron to the remaining neurons in the network (Schieve, Bulsara and Davis, 1990). potential described by (2) is bimodal for '7 > 1 With the extrema occurring at (we set throughout the remainder of this work), c=o, ? [1- genneuThe a=1 (3) 1-ta.nhb j::=:bta.nhb, 1- b sech 2 b the approximation holding for large b. Note that the N-shaped characteristic inherent in the firing dynamics derived from the Hodgkin-Huxley equations (Rinzel and Ermentrout, 1990) is markedly similar to the plot of dV/dx vs. x for the simple bistable system (1). For a stationary potential , and for D? Vo where Vo is the depth of the deterministic potential, the probability that a switching event will occur in unit time, i.e. the switching rate, is given by the Kramers frequency (Kramers, 1940), '.= \D l. dy .xp (U(y)/ D) ( , duxp (- U(z)/ D) r. (40) which, for small noise, may be cast in the form (the local equilibrium assumption of Kramers), ro::=: (271"r l ll V(21(0) I V(21(c)]1/'2 exp (- V o/ D), (4b) where V(2}(x) == d V /dx 2. We now include a periodic modulation term esinwt on the right-hand-side of (1) (note that for ?2(b-1)3/(3b) one does not observe SWitchin in the noise-free system) . This leads to a modulation (i .e. rocking) of the potential 2) with time: an additional term - xesinwt is now present on the right-hand-side of (2). n this case, the Kramers rate (4) becomes time-dependent: 2 q r(t)::=:roexp(-Xisinwt/D), (5) which is accurate only for e? Vo and w? {VI21(?c )}1/'2 . The latter condition is referred to as the adiabatic approximation. It ensures that the probability density corresponding to Single Neuron Model: Response to Weak Modulation in the Presence of Noise the time-modulated potential is approximately stationary (the modulation is slow enough that the instantaneous probability density can "adiabatically" relax to a succession of quasi-stationary states) . We now follow the work of McNamara and Wiesenfeld (1989), developing a two-state model by introducing a probability of finding the system in the left or right well of the potential. A rate equation is constructed based on the Kramers rate r(t) given by (5). Within the framework of the adiabatic approximation, this rate equation may be integrated to yield the time-dependent conditional probability density function for finding the system in a given well of the potential. This leads directly to the autocorrelation function < :z:{t) :z:{t + 1') > and finally, via the Wiener-Khinchine theorem, to the power spectral density P(O). The details are given by Bulsara, Jacobs, Zhou, Moss and Kiss (1991) : P 0 () = [ 1- 2rg f 2C 2 1[ D2{4rl+(2) 8c2ro 4rl+02 1+ 47rc 4 rg f2 6 w- 0 D2(4rg+02) ( ), (6) where the first term on the right-hand-side represents the noise background, the second term being the signal strength. Taking into account the finite bandwidth of the measuring syste~, ~e replace {for the I?urpose of compariso~ with e~perimental results} t~e .deltafunctlOn m (6) by the quantity (.6w)-1 where .6w IS the Width of a frequency bm m the (experimental) Fourier transformation. We introduce signal-to-noise ratio SNR = 10 log R in decibels, where R is given by 1 D24~Cr~~f:2) R == + (.6w)-1 [1- D2 ~:~t:2w2) r J [ 4r~gc~~2l ? (7) In writing down the above expressions, the approximate Kramers rate (4b) has been used . However, in what follows, we discuss the effects of replacing it by the exact expression (4a). The location of the maximum of the SNR is found by differentiating the above equation; It depends on the amplitude f and the frequency w of the modulation, as well as the additive noise variance D and the parameters a and b in the potential. The SNR computed via the above expression increases as the modulation frequency is lowered relative to the Kramers frequency . Lowering the modulation frequency also sharpens the resonance peak, and shifts it to lower noise values, an effect that has been demonstrated, for example, by Bulsara, Jacobs, Zhou, Moss and Kiss (1991). The above may be readily explained. The effect of the weak modulating signal is to alternately raise and lower the potential well with respect to the barrier height Vo. In the absence of noise and for l ? V o, the system cannot switch states, i.e. no information is transferred to the output. In the presence of noise, however, the system can switch states through stochastic activation over the barrier . Although the switching process is statistical, the transition probability is periodically modulated by the external signal. Hence, the output will be correlated, to some degree, with the input signal (the modulation "clocks" the escape events and the whole process will be optimized if the noise by itself produces, on average, two escapes within one modulation cycle) . Figure 1 shows the SNR as a function of the noise variance 2D . The potential barrier height Vo:;;:: 2.4 for the b = 2.5 case considered. Curves corresponding to the adiabatic expression (7), as well as the SNR obtained through an exact (numerical) calculation of the Kramers rate, using (4a) are shown, along with the data points obtained via direct numerical simulation of (1). The Kramers rate at the maximum (2D ~ V o) of the SNR curve is 0.72. This is much greater than the driving frequency w = 0.0393 used in this plot. The curve computed using the exact expression (4a) fits the numerically obtained data points better than the adiabatic curve at high noise strengths . This is to be expected in light of the approximations used in deriving (4b) from (4a). Also, the expression (6) has been derived from a two-state theory (taking no account of the potential) . At low noise, we expect the two-state theory to agree with the actual system more closely . This is reflected in the resonance curves of figure 1 with the adiabatic curve differing (at the maximum) from the data points by approximately Idb. We reiterate that the SNR, as well as the agreement between the data points and the theoretical curves improves as the modulation frequency is lowered relative to the Kramers rate (for a fixed frequency this can be achieved by changing the potential barrier height via the parameters a and b in (2)). On the same plot, we show the SNR obtained by computing directly the Fourier transform of the signal and noise. At very 69 70 Bulsara, Jacobs, and Moss low noise, the Mideal linear filter Myields results that are considerably better than stochastic resonance. However, at moderate-to-high noise, the stochastic resonance, which may be looked upon as a Mnonlinear filter M, offers at least a 2.5db improvement for the parameters of the figure. As indicated above, the improvement in performance achieved by stochastic resonance over the "ideal linear filterM may be enhanced by raising the Kramers frequency of the nonlinear filter relative to the modulation frequency w. In fact, as long as the basic conditions of stochastic resonance are realized, the nonlinear filter will outperform the best linear filter except at very low noise. ZZ.5 20.0 o o o o co ~ a: Fig 1. SNR using adiabatic theory, eqn. (7), with (b ,w,e)= (2.5,0.0393,0.3) and ro given by (4b) (solid curve) and (4a) (dotted curve) . Data points correspond to SNR obtained via direct simulation of (1) (frequency resolution =6.1x 10-6 Hz). Dashed curve corresponds to best possible linear filter (see text) . 0 o o 17.5 o zC/) ~ .................. 15.0 "- , .... .............. ' .... ........ .... .... 12.5+----+---+--_--+----+----<----<--...... -.:.. 0.00 1.Z5 Z.50 3. 75 5.00 Noise Variance 2D Multiplicative Noise Effects We now consider the case when the neuron is exposed to both additive and multiplicative noise. In this case, we set b(t) = bo+ ?(t) where (8) <?(t? =0, < ?(t) ?(s) > =2Dm ott - s) . In a real system such fluctuations might arise through the interaction of the neuron with other neurons in the network or with external fluctuations. In fact, Schieve, Bulsara and Davis (1991) have shown that when one derives the Mreduced M neuron dynamics in the form (1) from a fully connected N-neuron network with fluctuating synaptic couplings, then the resulting dynamics contain multiplicative noise terms of the kind being discussed here. Even Langevin noise by itself can introduce a pitchfork bifurcation into the long-time dynamics of such a reduced neuron model under the appropriate conditions (Bulsara and Schieve, 1991). In an earlier pUblication (Bulsara, Boss and Jacobs, 1989), it was shown that these fluctuations can qualitatively alter the behavior of the stationary probability density function that describes the stochastic response of the neuron. In particular, the multiplicative noise may induce additional peaks or erase peaks already present in the density (see for example Horsthemke and Lefever 1984) . In this work we maintain Dm sufficiently small that such effects are absent. In the absence of modulation, one can write down a Fokker Planck equation for the probability density function p (:z; ,t) describing the neuron response: E.1!. a 1 a2 at=-a;[a(x)p!+z ax 2 [.8(x)pj, (9) where a(x) == - x + botanhx + Dm tanhx sech 2 x, .8(x);: 2(D + Dm tanh 2 x) I (10) D being the additive noise intensity . In the steady state, (9) may be solved to yield a Mmacroscopic potential" function analogous to the function U(:z;} defined in (2): U (x) =- 2f &~ .8( z) dx + In .8(:z;) . (11) Single Neuron Model: Response to Weak Modulation in the Presence of Noise From (11), one obtains the turning points of the potential through the solution of the transcendental equation x - bo tanhx + Dm tanhx sech 2x = 0 . (12) The modified Kramers rate, rpm, for this x-dependent diffusion process has been derived by Englund, Snapp and Schieve lI984): rOm = ~ [ U(2 1(Xl) I U(21(0) I p'" exp [ U(XI) 2,.. U(O) I, (13) where the maximum of the potential occurs at x=o and the left minimum occurs at Z=ZI' If we now assume that a weak sinusoidal modulation ?sinwt is present, we may once again introduce this term into the potential as in the preceding case, again making the adiabatic approximation . We easily obtain for the modified time-dependent Kramers rate, r ?(t) = If..Ql [ U(21(xI) I U(21(0) III", exp [ U(XI) - U(O) ? 2 4,.. (0 0 ?SID(' w) t (3 z dz ]. (14) Following the same procedure as we used in the additive noise case, we can obtain the ratio R = 1 + S / l::lw N, for the case of both noises being present. The result is, R = 1 + 7r"l0'102(.6w) -I [1 - 2"1lr7J 2 2 "10 + '10 ]-1 ' (15) where, (16a) and '1 -~J,~o dz - 0='0 (3(z) 2(D ? + Dm ) [xl+ml/2 tan- l (m l/2 tanhx l )], (16b) 20 Fig 2. Effect of multiplicative noise, eqn . (15). (b ,w,?) = (2,0.31,0.4) and Dm =0 (top curve), 0.1 (middle curve) and 0.2 (bottom curve) . EO ~ 10 a: Z Cf) o 0.3 0 .9 0 .6 1.2 1.5 D In figure 2 we show the effects of both additive and multiplicative noise by plotting the SNR for a fixed external frequency w=O.31 with (b o, ?) = (2,0.4) as a function of the additive noise intensity D. The curves correspond to different values of Dm, with the uppermost curve corresponding to Dm =0, i.e ., for the case of additive noise only . We note that increasing Dm leads to a decrease in the SNR as well as a shift in its maximum to lower values of D. These effects are easily explained using the results of Bulsara, Boss and Jacobs 71 72 Buisara, Jacobs, and Moss (1989), wherein it was shown that the effect of mUltiplicative noise is to decrease, on average, the potential barrier height and to shift the locations of the stable steady states. This leads to a degradation of the stochastic resonance effect at large Dm while shifting the location of the maximum toward lower D . THE POWER SPECTRUM We turn now to the power spectrum obtained via direct numerical simulation of the dynamics (1). It is evident that a time series obtained by numerical simulation of (1) would display SWitching events between the stable states of the potential, the residence time in each state being a random variable. The intrawell motion consists of a random component superimposed on a harmonic component, the latter increasing as the amplitude i of the modulation increases. In the low noise limit, the deterministic motion dominates . However, the adiabatic theory used in deriving the expressions (6) and (7) is a two-state theory that simply follows the switching events between the states but takes no account of this intrawell motion. Accordingly, in what follows, we draw the distinction between the full dynamics obtained via direct simulation of (1) and the "equivalent two-state dynamics" obtained by passing the output through a two-state filter. Such a filter is realized digitally by replacing the time series obtained from a simulation of (1) with a time series wherein the x variable takes on the values x = ? c, depending on which state the system is in . Figure 3 shows the power spectral density obtained from this equivalent two-state system. The cop curve represents the signal-free case and the bottom curve shows the effects of turning on the signal . Two features are readily apparent : 50 00 35 75 CD ~ Fig 3. Power spectral density via direct simulation of (1). a: zV) (b ,w ,< ,2D) = (1.6056,0.03,0.65,0.25). Bottom curve : <=0 case . 7 2S -700L---~~ -===::::::::;;;;;;~~~ __ 000 O . O~ O. OB lrequency 011 0.15 (Hz) l. The power spectrum displays odd harmonics of the modulation; this is a hallmark of stochastic resonance (Zhou and Moss, 1990) . If one destroys the symmetry of the potential (1) (through the introduction of a small de driving term, for example), the even harmonics of the modulation appear. 2. The noise floor is lowered when the signal is turned on. This effect is particularly striking In the two-state dynamics. It stems from the fact that the total area under the spectral density curves in figure 3 (i .e. the total power) must be conserved (a consequence of Parseval's theorem). The power in the signal spikes therefore grows at the expense of the background noise power. This is a unique feature of weakly modulated bistable noisy systems of the type under consideration in this work, and ~raPhiCallY illustrates the ability of noise to assist information flow to the output (the signal. The effect may be quantified on examining equ~tion (6) a~ove . The noise power spectra ~density (reJ?resented by the first Cerm on the nght-hand-slde) decreases as the term 2ro?2c2{D2(4rg +(2)}-1 approaches unity . This reduction in the noise floor is most pronounced when the signal is of low frequency (compared to the Kramers rate) and large amplitude . A similar, effect may be observed in the spectral density correspondin~ to the full system dynamics . In this case, the total power is only approximately conserved tin a finite bandwidth) and the effect is not so Single Neuron Model: Response to Weak Modulation in the Presence of Noise pronounced. DISCUSSION In this paper we have presented the details of a cooperative stochastic process that occurs in nonlinear systems subject to weak deterministic modulating signals embedded in a white noise background. The so-called "stochastic resonance" phenomenon may actually be interpreted as a noise-assisted flow of information to the output. The fact that such simple nonlinear dynamic systems (e.g. an electronic Schmidt trigger) are readily realizeable in hardware, points to the possible utility of this technique (far beyond the application to signal processing in simple neural networks) as a nonlinear filter. We have demonstrated that, by suitably adjusting the system parameters (in effect changing the Kramers rate), we can optimize the response to a given modulation frequency and background noise. In a practical system, one can move the location and height of the bell-shaped response curve of figure 1 by changing the potential parameters and, possibly, infusing noise into the system. The noise-enhancement of the SNR improves with decreasing frequency. This is a hallmark of stochastic resonance and provides one with a possible filtering technique at low frequency . It is important to point out that all the effects reported in this work have been reproduced via analog simulations (Bulsara, Jacobs, Zhou, Moss and Kiss, 1991: Zhou and Moss, 1990). Recently a new approach to the processing of information in noisy nonlinear dynamic systems, based on the probability density of residence times in one of the stable states of the potential, has been developed by Zhou, Moss and Jung (1990). This technique, which offers an alternative to the FFT, was applied by Longtin, Moss and Bulsara (1991) in their construction of the inter-spike-interval histograms that describe neuronal spike trains in the central nervous system . Their work points to the important role played by noise in the procesing of information by the central nervous system. The beneficial role of noise has already been recognized by Buhmann and Schulten (1986, 87). They found that noise, deliberately added to the deterministic equations governing individual neurons in a network significantly enhanced the network's performance and concluded that " ... the noise ... is an essential feature of the information processing abilities of the neural network and not a mere SOurce of disturbance better suppressed ... " Acknowledgements This work was carried out under funding from the Office of Naval Research grant nos. NOOOI4-90-AF-OOOOI and NOOOOI4-90-J-1327 . References Aihara K., Takake T., and Toyoda M., 1990; "Chaotic Neural Networks", Phys. Lett. A144, 333-340. Buhmann J., and Schulten K., 1986; "Influence of Noise on the Behavior of an Autoassociative Neural Network", in J. Denker (ed) Neural networks for Computing (AlP conf. procedings, vol 151). Buhmann J ., and Schulten K., 1987; "Influence of Noise on the Function of a "Physiological" Neural Network", BioI. Cyber. 56,313-327. Bulsara A., Boss R. and Jacobs E., 1989; "Noise Effects in an Electronic Model of a Single Neuron", BioI. Cyber. 61, 212-222. Bulsara A., Jacobs E., Zhou T., Moss F. and Kiss L., 1991; "Stochastic Resonance in a Single Neuron Model: Theory and Analog Simulation", J. Theor. BioI. 154, 5~1-555. Bulsara A. and Schieve W., 1991; "Single Effective Neuron: Macroscopic Potential and Noise-Induced Bifurcations?, Phys. Rev . A, in press. Englund J., Snapp R., Schieve W., 1984; "Fluctuations, Instabilities and Chaos in the Laser-Driven Nonlinear Ring Cavity", in E. Wolf (ed) Progress in Optics, vol XXI. (North Holland, Amsterdam) . 73 74 Bulsara, Jacobs, and Moss Gammaitoni L., Martinelli M., Pardi L., and Santucci S., 1991; MObservation of Stochastic Resonance in Bistable Electron Paramagnetic Resonance Systems M, preprint. Hopfield J ., 1982; MNeural Networks and Physical Systems with Emergent Computational Capabilities M, Proc. Natl. Acad . Sci. 79, 2554-2558. Hopfield J ., 1984; MNeurons with Graded Responses have Collective Computational Abilities like those of Two-State Neurons M, Proc. Natl. Acad . Sci., 81, 3088-3092. Horsthemke W., and Lefever R., 1984; Noise-Induced Transitions. (Springer-Verlag, Berlin) . Kramers H., 1940; MBrownian Motion in a Field of Force and the Diffusion Model of Chemical Reactions M, Physica 1, 284-304 . Li Z. , and Hopfield J ., 1989; "Modeling the Olfactory Bulb and its Neural Oscillatoy Processings M, BioI. Cyber. 61, 379-392. Longtin A., Bulsara A., and Moss F., 1991; MTime-Interval Sequences in Bistable Systems and the Noise-Induced Transmission of Information by Sensory Neurons M, Phys. Rev. Lett. 67,656-659 . McNamara B., Wiesenfeld K., and Roy R., 1988; "Observation of Stochastic Resonance in a Ring Laser", Phys. Rev. Lett. 60, 2626-2629. McNamara B., and Wiesenfeld K., 1989; "Theory of Stochastic Resonance M, Phys. Rev. A39, 4854-4869. Paulus M., Gass S., and Mandell A., 1990; works M, Physica D40, 135-155. M A Realistic Middle-Layer for Neural Net- Rinzel J ., and Ermentrout B., 1989; Analysis of Neural Excitability and Oscillations", in Methods in Neuronal Modeling, eds. C. Koch and I. Segev (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) . M Rose J ., Brugge J., Anderson D., and Hind J., 1967; ?Phase-locked Response to Lowfrequency Tones in Single Auditory Nerve Fibers of the Squirrel Monkey", J . Neurophysial., 30, 769-793. Schieve W., Bulsara A. and Davis G., 1990; "Single Effective Neuron", Phys. Rev. A43 2613-2623. Shamma S., 1989; MSpatial and Temporal Processing in Central Auditory Networks", in Methods in Neuronal Modeling, eds. C. Koch and I. Segev (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA). Siegal R.,1990; MNonlinear Dynamical System Theory and Primary Visual Cortical Processing", Physica 42D, 385-395. Spano M ., and Ditto W., 1991; MExperimental Observation of Stochastic R Resonance in a Magnetoelastic Ribbon", preprint. Tuckwell H., 1989; "Stochastic Processes in the Neurosciences", (SIAM, Philadelphia). Vemuri G., and Roy R., 1990; MStochastic Resonance in a Bistable Ring Laser N, Phys. Rev. A39, 4668-4674. Zhou T., and Moss F., 1990; Analog Simulations of Stochastic Resonance M, Phys. Rev. A41, 4255-4264. M Zhou T., Moss F., and Jung P., 1991; MEscape-Time Distributions of a Periodically Modulated Bistable System with Noise", Phys . Rev. A42, 3161-3169.
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Adaptive Market Making via Online Learning Jacob Abernethy? Computer Science and Engineering University of Michigan [email protected] Satyen Kale IBM T. J. Watson Research Center [email protected] Abstract We consider the design of strategies for market making in an exchange. A market maker generally seeks to profit from the difference between the buy and sell price of an asset, yet the market maker also takes exposure risk in the event of large price movements. Profit guarantees for market making strategies have typically required certain stochastic assumptions on the price fluctuations of the asset in question; for example, assuming a model in which the price process is mean reverting. We propose a class of ?spread-based? market making strategies whose performance can be controlled even under worst-case (adversarial) settings. We prove structural properties of these strategies which allows us to design a master algorithm which obtains low regret relative to the best such strategy in hindsight. We run a set of experiments showing favorable performance on recent real-world stock price data. 1 Introduction When a trader enters a market, say a stock or commodity market, with the desire to buy or sell a certain quantity of an asset, how is this trader guaranteed to find a counterparty to agree to transact at a reasonable price? This is not a problem in a liquid market, with a deep pool of traders ready to buy or sell at any time, but in a thin market the lack of counterparties can be troublesome. A rushed trader may even be willing to transact at a worse price in exchange for immediate execution. This is where a market maker (MM) can be quite useful. A MM is any agent that participates in a market by offering to both buy and sell the underlying asset at any time. To put it simply, a MM consistently guarantees liquidity to the marketplace by promising to be a counterparty to any trader. The act of market making has both potential benefits and risks. For one, the MM bears the risk of transacting with better-informed traders that may know much more about the movement of the asset?s price, and in such scenarios the MM can take on a large inventory of shares that it may have to offload at a worse price. On the positive side, the MM can profit as a result of the bid-ask spread, the difference between the MM?s buy price and sell price. In other words, if the MM buys 100 shares of a stock from one trader at a price of p, and then immediately sells 100 shares of stock to another trader at a price of p + , the MM records a profit of 100 . This describes the central goal of a profitable market making strategy: minimize the inventory risk of large movements in the price while simultaneously aiming to benefit from the bid-ask spread. The MM strategy has a state, which is the current inventory or holdings, receives as input order and price data, and must decide what quantities and at what prices to offer in the market. In the present paper we assume that the MM interacts with a continuous double auction via an order book, and the MM can place both market and limit orders to the order book. A number of MM strategies have been proposed, and in many cases certain profit/loss guarantees have been given. But to the best of our knowledge all such guarantees (aside from [4]) have required ? Work performed while the author was in the CIS Department at the University of Pennsylvania and funded by a Simons Postdoctoral Fellowship 1 stochastic assumptions on the traders or the sequence of price fluctuations. Often, e.g., one needs to assume that the underlying price process exhibits a mean reverting behavior to guarantee profit. In this paper we focus on constructing MM strategies that achieve non-stochastic guarantees on profit and loss. We begin by proposing a class of market making strategies, parameterized by the choice of bid-ask spread and liquidity, and we establish a data-dependent expression for the profit and loss of each strategy at the end of a sequence of price fluctuations. The model we consider, as well as the aforementioned class of strategies, builds off of the work of Chakraborty and Kearns [4]. In particular, we assume the MM is given an exogenously-specified price time series that is revealed online. We also assume that the MM is able to make and cancel orders after every price fluctuation. We extend the prior work [4] by considering the problem of online learning among this parameterized class of strategies. Performance is measured in terms of regret, which is the difference between the total value of the learner?s algorithm and that of the best strategy in hindsight. While this problem is related to the problem of learning from expert advice, standard algorithms assume that the experts have no state; i.e. in each round, the cost of following any given expert?s advice is the same as the cost to that expert. This is not the case for online learning of the bid-ask spread, where the state, represented by the inventory of each strategy, affects the payoffs. We can prove however that due to the combinatorial structure of these strategies, one can afford to switch state with bounded cost. Using these structural properties we prove the following main result of this paper: Theorem 1 There is an online learning algorithm, that, under a bounded price volatility assumption p (see Defintion 1) has O( T ) regret after T trading periods to the best spread-based strategy. Experimental simulations of our online learning algorithms with real-world price data suggest that this approach is quite promising; our algorithm frequently performs nearly as well as the best strategy, and is often superior. Such empirical results provides some evidence that regret minimization techniques are well-suited for adaptively setting the bid-ask spread. Related Work Perhaps the most popular model to study market making has been the GlostenMilgrom model [11]. In this setting the market is facilitated by a specialist, a monopolistic market maker that acts as the middle man for all trades. There has been some work in the Computer Science literature that has considered the sequential decision problem of the specialist [8, 10], and this work was extended to look at the more modern order book mechanism [9]. In our model traders interact directly with an order book, not via a specialist, and the prices are set exogenously as in [4]. Over the past ten years that has been a burst of research within the AI and EconCS community on the design of prediction markets in which traders can bet on the likelihood of future uncertain events (like horse races, or elections). Much of this started with a couple of key results of Robin Hanson [12, 13] who described how to design subsidized prediction markets via the use of proper scoring rules. The key technique was a method to design an automated market maker, and there has been much work on facilitating this using mechanisms based on shares (i.e. Arrow-Debreu securities). There is a medium-sized literature on this topic by now [6, 5, 1, 2] and we mention only a selection. The key difference between the present paper and the work on designing prediction markets is that our techniques are solely focused on profit and risk, and not on other issues like price discovery or information aggregation. Recent work by Della Penna and Reid [19] considered market making as a the multi-armed bandit problem, and this is a notable exception where profit was the focus. This ?non-stochastic? approach we take to the market making problem echos many of the ideas of Cover?s results on Universal Portfolio algorithms [20], an area that has received much followup work [16, 15, 14, 3, 7] given its robustness to adversarially-chosen price fluctuations. But these algorithms are of the ?market taking? variety, that is they actively rebalance their portfolio on a daily basis. Moreover, the goal of the Universal Portfolio is to get low regret with respect to the best fixed mixture of investments, rather than the best bid-ask spread which is aim of the present work. 2 The Market Execution Framework We now present our market model formally. We will consider the buying and selling of a single security, say the stock of Microsoft, over the course of some time interval. We assume that all events in the market take place at discrete points in time throughout this day. At each time period t a 2 market price pt is announced to the world. In a typical stock exchange this price will be rounded to a discrete value; historically stock prices were quoted in 18 ?s of a dollar, although now they are quoted in pennies. We let be the discretization parameter of the exchange, and for simplicity assume = 1/m for some positive integer m. Now let ? be the set of discrete prices within some feasible range, ? := { , 2 , 3 , . . . , ( M 1) , M }, where M is some reasonable bound on the largest price. A trading strategy maintains two state variables at the beginning of every time period t: (a) the holdings or inventory Ht 2 R, representing the amount of stock that the strategy is long or short at the beginning of time period t (Ht will be negative if the strategy is short); (b) the cash Ct 2 R of the strategy, representing the money earned or lost by the investor at that time. Initially we have C1 = H1 = 0. Note that when Ct < 0 this is not necessarily bad, it simply means the investor has borrowed money to purchase holdings, often referred to as ?trading on margin?. Let us now consider the trading mechanism at time t. For simplicity we assume there are two types of trades that can be executed, and each will change the cash and holdings at the following time period. By default, set Ht+1 Ht and Ct+1 Ct . Then the trading strategy can execute any subset of the following two actions: ? Market Order: At time t the posted price is pt and the trader executes a trade of X shares, with X 2 R. In this case we update the cash as Ct+1 Ct+1 pt X and Ht+1 Ht+1 + X. Note that if X < 0 then this is a short sale in which case the trader?s cash increases1 ? Limit Order: Before time period t, the trader submits a demand schedule Lt : ? ! R+ , where it is assumed that Lt (pt 1 ) = 0. For every price p 2 ? with p < pt 1 , the value Lt (p) is the number of shares the trader would like to buy at a price of p. For every p > pt 1 the value Lt (p) is the number of shares the trader would like to sell at a price of p. One should interpret a limit order in terms of ?posting shares to the order book?: these shares are up for sale (and/or purchase) but the order will only be executed if the price moves. In round t the posted price becomes pt and it is assumed that all shares offered at any price between pt 1 and pt are transacted. More specifically, we have two cases: ? If pt > pt 1 then for each p 2 ? with pt 1 < p ? pt we update Ct+1 Ct+1 + pLt (p) and Ht+1 Ht+1 Lt (p); ? Else if pt < pt 1 then for each p 2 ? with pt ? p < pt 1 we update Ct+1 Ct+1 pLt (p) and Ht+1 Ht+1 + Lt (p). It is worth noting market orders are quite different from limit orders. A limit order is a passive action in the market, the trader simply states that he would be willing to trade a number of shares at a range of different prices. But if the market does not move then no transactions occur. The market order is a much more direct action to take, the transaction is guaranteed to execute at the current market price. The market order has the downside that the trader does not get to specify the price at which he would like to trade, contrary to the limit order. Roughly speaking, an MM strategy will generally interact with the market via limit orders, since the MM is simply hoping to profit from liquidity provision. But the MM may at times have to place market orders to balance inventory to control risk. We include one more piece of notation, the value of the strategy?s portfolio Vt+1 at the end of time period t, which can be defined explicitly in terms of the cash, holdings, and current market price: Vt+1 := Ct+1 + pt Ht+1 . In other words, Vt+1 is the amount of cash the strategy would have if it liquidated all holdings at the current market price. Assumptions of our model. In the described framework we make several simplifying assumptions on the trading execution mechanism, which we note here. (1) The trader pays neither transaction fees nor borrowing costs when his cash balance is negative. (2) Market orders are executed at exactly the posted market price, without ?slippage? of any kind. This suggests that the market is very liquid relative to the actions of the MM. (3) The market allows the buying and selling of fractional shares. 1 Technically speaking, a brokerage firm won?t give the short-seller the cash to spend since this money will be used to backup losses when the short position is closed. But for the purpose of accounting it is perfectly reasonably to record cash in this way, assuming that the strategy ends up holdings at 0. 3 (4) The price sequence is ?exogenously? determined, meaning that the trades we make do not affect the current and future prices. This assumption has been made in previous results [4] and it is perhaps quite strong, especially if the MM is providing the bulk of the liquidity. We leave it for future work to consider the setting with a non-exogenous price process. (5) Unexecuted limited orders are cancelled before the next period. That is, for any p not lying between pt 1 to pt it is assumed that the Lt (p) untransacted shares at price p are removed from the order book. This is just notational convenience: the MM can resubmit these shares via Lt+1 . 3 Spread-based Strategies In this section we present a class of simple market making strategies which we refer to as spreadbased strategies since they maintain a fixed bid-ask spread throughout. We then prove some structural properties on this class of strategies. We only give proof sketches for lack of space; all proofs can be found in an appendix in the supplementary material. 3.1 Spread-based strategies. We consider market making strategies parameterized by a window size b 2 { , 2 , . . . , B}, where B is a multiple of . Before round t, the strategy S(b) selects a window of size b, viz. [at , at + b], starting with a1 = p1 . For some fixed liquidity density parameter ?, it submits a buy order of ? shares at every price p 2 ? such that p < at and a sell order ? shares at every price p 2 ? such that p > at + b. Depending on the price in the trading period pt , the strategy adjusts the next window by the smallest amount necessary to include pt . Algorithm 1 Spread-Based Strategy S(b) 1: Receive parameters b > 0, liquidity density ? > 0, inital price p1 as input. Initialize a1 := p1 . 2: for t = 1, 2, . . . , T do 3: Observe market price pt 4: If pt < at then at+1 pt 5: Else If pt > at + b then at+1 pt b 6: Else at+1 at 7: Submit limit order Lt+1 : Lt+1 (p) = 0 if p 2 [at+1 , at+1 + b], else Lt+1 (p) = ?. 8: end for The intuition behind a spread-based strategy is that the MM waits for the price to deviate in such a way that it leaves the window [at , at + b]. Let?s say the price suddenly drops below at and we get pt = at k for some positive integer k such that k < b. As soon as this happens some transactions occur and the MM now has holdings of k? shares. That is, the MM will have purchased ? shares at each of the prices at , at 2 , . . . , at k . On the following round the MM updates his limit order Lt+1 to offer to sell ? shares at each of the price levels at + b (k 1) , at + b (k 2) , . . .. This gives a natural matching between shares that were bought and shares that are offered for sale, with the sale price being exactly b higher than the purchased price. If, at a later time t0 > t, the price rises so that pt0 at + b + then all shares bought previously are sold at a profit of kb?. We now give a very useful lemma, that essentially shows that we can calculate the profit and loss of a spread-based strategy on two factors: (a) how much the spread window moves throughout the trading period, and (b) how far away the final price is from the initial price. A sketch of the proof is provided, but the complete version is in the Appendix. Lemma 1 The value of the portfolio of S(b) at time T can be bounded as VT +1 ? T X b |at+1 2 t=1 at | (|aT +1 a1 | + b) 2 ! P ROOF :[Sketch] The proof of this lemma is quite similar to the proof of Theorem 2.1 in [4]. The main idea is given in the intuitive explanation above: we can match pairs of shares that are bought 4 and sold at prices that are b apart, thus registering a profit of b for each such pair. We can relate these matched pairs to the at ?s, and the unmatched stock transactions to the difference |aT +1 a1 |, yielding the stated bound. 2 In other words, the risk taken by all strategies is roughly the same ( 12 |pT +1 p1 |2 up to an additive constant in the quadratic term). But the revenue of the spread-based strategy scales with two quantities: the size of the window b but also the total movement of the window. This raises an interesting tradeoff in setting the b parameter, since we would like to make as much as possible on the movement of the window, but by increasing b the window will get ?pushed around? a lot less by the fluctuating price. We now make some convenient normalization. Since for every unit price change, the strategies trade ?/ shares, in the rest of the paper, without loss of generality, we may assume that ? = 1 and = 1 (by appropriately changing the unit of currency). The regret bounds for general ? and scale up by a factor of ? . 3.2 Structural properties of spread-based strategies. It is useful to prove certain properties about the proposed spread-based strategies. Lemma 2 Consider any two strategies S(b) and S(b0 ) with b0 < b. Let [a0t , a0t + b0 ] and [at , at + b] denote the intervals chosen by S(b) and S(b0 ) at time t respectively. Then for all t, we have [a0t , a0t + b0 ] ? [at , at + b]. P ROOF :[Sketch] This is easy to prove by induction on t, via a simple case analysis on where pt lies in relation to the windows [a0t , a0t + b0 ] and [at , at + b]. 2 Lemma 3 For any strategy S(b), its inventory at time t, Ht , equals a1 at . P ROOF :[Sketch] Again using case analysis on where pt lies in relation to the window [at , at + b], we can show that Ht + at is an invariant. Thus, Ht + at = H1 + a1 = a1 , and hence Ht = a1 at . 2 The following corollary follows easily: Corollary 1 For any round t, consider any two strategies S(b) and S(b0 ) with b0 < b, with inventories Ht and Ht0 respectively. Then |Ht Ht0 | ? b b0 . P ROOF : By Lemma 3 we have |Ht Ht0 | = |a1 a01 +a0t at | ? b b0 , since [a01 , a01 +b0 ] ? [a1 , a1 +b] and by Lemma 2 [a0t , a0t + b0 ] ? [at , at + b]. 2 Definition 1 ( -bounded volatility) A price sequence p1 , p2 , . . . , pT is said to have volatility if for all t 2, we have |pt pt 1 | ? . -bounded We assume from now that the price sequence has -bounded volatility. Suppose now that we have a set B of N window sizes b, all bounded by B. In the rest of the paper, all vectors are in RN with coordinates indexed by b 2 B. For every b 2 B, at the end of time period t, let its inventory be Ht+1 (b), cash value be Ct+1 (b), and total value be Vt+1 (b). These quantities define the vectors Ht+1 , Ct+1 and Vt+1 . The following lemma shows that the change in the total value of different strategies in any round is similar. Lemma 4 Define G = 2 B + 2 . In round t, H = minb2B {Ht (b)}. Then for any strategy S(b), we have |(Vt+1 (b) Vt (b)) (H(pt pt 1 ))| ? G. Thus, for any two window sizes b and b0 , we have |(Vt+1 (b) Vt (b)) (Vt+1 (b0 ) Vt (b0 ))| ? 2G. P ROOF :[Sketch] Since |pt pt 1 | ? , each strategy trades at most shares, at prices between pt 1 and pt . Next, by Corollary 1, for any strategy |Ht (b) H| ? B. Using these bounds, and the definitions of the total value, some calculations give the stated bounds. 2 5 4 A low regret meta-algorithm Recall that we have a set B of N window sizes b, all bounded by B. We want to design a low-regret algorithm that achieves almost as much payoff as that of the best strategy S(b) for b 2 B. Consider the following meta-algorithm. Treat every strategy S(b) as an expert and run a regret minimizing algorithm for learning with expert advice (such as Multiplicative Weights [18] or FollowThe-Perturbed-Leader [17]). The distributions generated by the regret minimizing algorithm are treated as mixing weights for the different strategies, essentially executing each strategy scaled by its current weight. In each round, the meta-algorithm restores the inventory of each strategy to the correct state by additionally buying or selling enough shares so that its inventory is exactly what it would have been had it run the different strategies with their present weights throughout. The specific algorithm is given below. Algorithm 2 Low regret meta-algorithm 1: Run every strategy S(b) in parallel so that at the end of each time period t, all trades made by the strategies and the vectors Ht+1 , Ct+1 and Vt+1 2 RN can be computed. 2: Start a regret-minimizing algorithm A for learning from expert advice with one expert corresponding to each strategy S(b) for b 2 B. Let the distribution over strategies generated by A at time t be wt . 3: for t = 1, 2, . . . , T do 4: Execute any market orders from the previous period at the current market price pt so that the inventory now equals Ht ? wt . The cash value changes by (Ht ? (wt wt 1 ))pt . 5: Execute any limit orders from the previous period: a wt weighted combination of the limit orders of the strategies S(b). The holdings change to Ht+1 ? wt , and the cash value changes by (Ct+1 Ct ) ? wt . 6: For each strategy S(b) for b 2 B, set its payoff in round t to be Vt+1 (b) Vt (b) and send these payoffs to A. 7: Obtain the updated distribution wt+1 from A. 8: Place a market order to buy Ht+1 ?(wt+1 wt ) shares in the next period, and a wt+1 weighted combination of the limit orders of the strategies S(b). 9: end for We now prove the following bound on the regret of the algorithm based on the regret of the underlying algorithm A. Recall from Lemma 4 the definition of G := 2 B + 2 . Theorem 2 Assume that the price sequence has algorithm is bounded by -bounded volatity. The regret of the meta- T Regret(A) + GX kwt 2 t=1 wt+1 k1 . PT P ROOF : The regret bound for A implies that t=1 (Vt+1 Vt ) ? wt maxb2B VT (b) Regret(A). PT Lemma 5 shows that the final total value of the meta-algorithm is at least t=1 (Vt+1 Vt ) ? wt PT G wt+1 k1 . Thus, the regret of the algorithm is bounded as stated. 2 t=1 kwt 2 Lemma 5 In round t, the change in total value of the meta-algorithm equals (Vt+1 Furthermore, |Ht ? (wt wt Vt ) ? wt + Ht ? (wt 1 )(pt 1 pt )| ? G 2 kwt wt 1 )(pt 1 pt ). wt+1 k1 . P ROOF :[Sketch] The expression for the change in the total value of the meta-algorithm is a simple calculation using the definitions. The second bound is obtained by noting that all the Ht (b)?s are within B of each other by Corollary 1, and thus |Ht ? (wt wt 1 )| ? Bkwt wt 1 k1 , and |pt 1 pt | ? by the bounded volatility assumption. 2 6 4.1 A low regret algorithm based on Mutiplicative Weights Now we give a low regret algorithm based on the classic Multiplicative Weights (MW) algorithm [18]. Call this algorithm MMMW (Market Making using Multiplicative Weights). The algorithm takes parameters ?t , for t = 1, 2, . . . , T . It starts by initializing weights w1 (b) = 1/N for every b 2 B. In round t, the algorithm updates the weights using the rule wt+1 (b) := wt (b) exp(?t (Vt+1 (b) Vt (b)))/Zt , for every b 2 B, where Zt is the normalization constant to make wt+1 a distribution. Using Theorem 2, we can give the following bound on the regret of MMMW: ?q log(N ) 1 Theorem 3 Suppose we set ?t = 2G min , 1 , for t = 1, 2, . . . , T . Then MMMW has t p regret bounded by 13G log(N )T . P ROOF :[Sketch] By Theorem 2, we need to bound kwt+1 wt k1 . The multiplicative update rule, wt+1 (b) = wt (b) exp(?t (Vt+1 (b) Vt (b)))/Zt , and the fact that by Lemma 4, the range of the entries of Vt+1 Vt is bounded by 2G implies that kwt+1 wt k1 ? 4?t G. Standard analysis for the regret of the MW algorithm then gives the stated regret bound for MMMW. 2 4.2 A low regret algorithm based on Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader Now we give a low regret algorithm based on the Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader (FPL) algorithm [17]. Call this algorithm MMFPL (Market Making using Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader). We actually use a deterministic version of the algorithm which has the same regret bound. The algorithm requires a parameter ?. For every b 2 B, let p(b) be a sample from the exponential distribution with mean 1/?. The distribution wt is then set to be the distribution of the ?perturbed leader?, i.e. wt (b) = Pr[Vt (b) + p(b) Vt (b0 ) + p(b0 ) 8 b0 2 B]. p Using Theorem 2, we can give the following bound on the regret of MMFPL: q p log(N ) 1 Theorem 4 Choose ? = 2G . Then the regret of MMFPL is bounded by 7G log(N )T . T P ROOF :[Sketch] Again we need to bound kwt+1 wt k1 . Kalai and Vempala [17] show that in the randomized FPL algorithm, probability that the leader changes from round t to t + 1 is bounded by 2?G. This implies that kwt+1 wt k1 ? 4?G. Standard analysis for the regret of the FPL algorithm then gives the stated regret bound for MMFPL. 2 5 Experiments We conducted experiments with stock price data obtained from http://www.netfonds.no/. We downloaded data for the following stocks: MSFT, HPQ and WMT. The data consists of trades made throughout a given date in chronological order. We obtained data for these stocks for each of the 5 days in the range May 6-10, 2013. The number of trades ranged from roughly 7,000 to 38,000. The quoted prices are rounded to the nearest cent. Our spread-based strategies operate at the level of a cent: i.e. the windows are specified in terms of cents, and the buy/sell orders are set to 1 share per cent outside the window. The class of spread-based strategies we used in our experiments correspond to the following set of window sizes, quoted in cents: B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 100}, so that N = 10 and B = 100. We implemented MMMW, MMFPL, simple Follow-The-Leader2 (FTL), and simple uniform averaging over all strategies. We compared their performance to the best strategy in hindsight. For MMFPL, wt was approximated by averaging 100 independently drawn initial perturbations. 2 This algorithm simply chooses the best strategy in each round based on past performance without perturbations. 7 Symbol HPQ HPQ HPQ HPQ HPQ MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT WMT WMT WMT WMT WMT Date 05/06/2013 05/07/2013 05/08/2013 05/09/2013 05/10/2013 05/06/2013 05/07/2013 05/08/2013 05/09/2013 05/10/2013 05/06/2013 05/07/2013 05/08/2013 05/09/2013 05/10/2013 T 7128 13194 12016 14804 14005 29481 34017 38664 34386 27641 8887 11309 12966 10431 9567 Best 668.00 558.00 186.00 1058.00 512.00 1072.00 1260.00 2074.00 1813.00 1236.00 929.00 1333.00 1372.00 2415.00 1150.00 MMMW 370.07 620.18 340.11 890.99 638.53 1062.65 1157.38 2064.83 1802.91 1250.27 694.48 579.88 1300.47 2329.78 1001.31 MMFPL 433.99 -41.54 -568.04 327.05 -446.42 -1547.01 1048.46 1669.30 1534.68 556.08 760.70 995.43 832.80 1882.90 7.03 FTL 638.00 19.00 -242.00 214.00 -554.00 -1300.00 1247.00 2074.00 1811.00 590.00 785.00 918.00 974.00 1991.00 209.00 Uniform 301.10 100.80 -719.80 591.40 345.60 542.60 63.80 939.10 656.10 750.90 235.20 535.40 926.40 1654.10 707.70 Table 1: Final performance of various algorithms in cents. Bolded values indicate best performance. Italicized values indicate runs where the MMMW algorithm beat the best in hindsight. Figure 1: Performance of various algorithms and strategies for HPQ on May 8 and 9, 2013. For clarity, the total value every 100 periods is shown. Top row: On May 8, MMMW outperforms the best strategy, and on May 9 the reverse happens. Bottom row: performance of different strategies. On May 8, b = 100 performs best, while on May 9, b = 40 performs best. Experimentally, having slightly ?q larger learning rates seemed to help. For MMMW, we used the log(N ) 1 specification ?t = min , Gt , where Gt = max? ?t,b,b0 2B |V? (b) V? (b0 )|, and for t q ) MMFPL, we used the specification ? = log(N . These specifications ensures that the theory goes p T through and the regret is bounded by O( T ) as before. Table 5 shows the performance of the algorithms in the 15 runs (3 stocks times 5 days). In all the runs, the MMMW algorithm performed nearly as well as the best strategy, at times even outperforming it. MMFPL didn?t perform as well however. As an illustration of how closely MMMW tracks the best performance achievable using the spread-based strategies in the class, in Figure 5 we show the performance of all algorithms for 2 consecutive trading days, May 8 and 9, 2013, for the stock HPQ. We also show the performance of different strategies on these two days - it can be seen that the best strategy differs, thus motivating the need for an adaptive learning algorithm. 8 References [1] J. Abernethy, Y. Chen, and J. Wortman Vaughan. An optimization-based framework for automated market-making. In Proceedings of the 12th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, pages 297?306, 2011. [2] S. Agrawal, E. Delag, M. Peters, Z. Wang, and Y. Ye. A unified framework for dynamic prediction market design. Operations research, 59(3):550?568, 2011. [3] A. Blum and A. Kalai. Universal portfolios with and without transaction costs. Machine Learning, 35(3):193?205, 1999. [4] T. Chakraborty and M. Kearns. Market making and mean reversion. In Proceedings of the 12th ACM conference on Electronic commerce, pages 307?314. ACM, 2011. [5] Y. Chen and D. M. Pennock. A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers. In Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 49?56, 2007. [6] Y. Chen and J. Wortman Vaughan. A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning. In Proceedings of the 11th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, pages 189? 198, 2010. [7] T. M. Cover and E. Ordentlich. Universal portfolios with side information. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 42(2):348?363, 1996. [8] S. Das. A learning market-maker in the glosten?milgrom model. Quantitative Finance, 5(2):169?180, 2005. [9] S. Das. The effects of market-making on price dynamics. In Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, pages 887?894, 2008. [10] S. Das and M. Magdon-Ismail. Adapting to a market shock: Optimal sequential marketmaking. In Proceedings of the 21th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 361?368, 2008. [11] L. R. Glosten and P. R. Milgrom. Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders. Journal of financial economics, 14(1):71?100, 1985. [12] R. Hanson. Combinatorial information market design. 5(1):105?119, 2003. Information Systems Frontiers, [13] R. Hanson. Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation. Journal of Prediction Markets, 1(1):3?15, 2007. [14] E. Hazan, A. Kalai, S. Kale, and A. Agarwal. Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization. In Learning Theory, pages 499?513. Springer, 2006. [15] D. P. Helmbold, R. E. Schapire, Y. Singer, and M. K. Warmuth. On-line portfolio selection using multiplicative updates. Mathematical Finance, 8(4):325?347, 1998. [16] A. T. Kalai and S. Vempala. Efficient algorithms for universal portfolios. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:423?440, 2003. [17] A. T. Kalai and S. Vempala. Efficient algorithms for online decision problems. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 71(3):291?307, 2005. [18] N. Littlestone and M. K. Warmuth. 108(2):212?261, 1994. The weighted majority algorithm. Inf. Comput., [19] N. Della Penna and M. D. Reid. Bandit market makers. arXiv preprint arXiv:1112.0076, 2011. [20] T. M. Cover. Universal portfolios. Mathematical Finance, 1(1):1?29, January 1991. 9
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Submodular Optimization with Submodular Cover and Submodular Knapsack Constraints Jeff Bilmes Department of Electrical Engineering University of Washington [email protected] Rishabh Iyer Department of Electrical Engineering University of Washington [email protected] Abstract We investigate two new optimization problems ? minimizing a submodular function subject to a submodular lower bound constraint (submodular cover) and maximizing a submodular function subject to a submodular upper bound constraint (submodular knapsack). We are motivated by a number of real-world applications in machine learning including sensor placement and data subset selection, which require maximizing a certain submodular function (like coverage or diversity) while simultaneously minimizing another (like cooperative cost). These problems are often posed as minimizing the difference between submodular functions [9, 25] which is in the worst case inapproximable. We show, however, that by phrasing these problems as constrained optimization, which is more natural for many applications, we achieve a number of bounded approximation guarantees. We also show that both these problems are closely related and an approximation algorithm solving one can be used to obtain an approximation guarantee for the other. We provide hardness results for both problems thus showing that our approximation factors are tight up to log-factors. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the performance and good scalability properties of our algorithms. 1 Introduction A set function f : 2V ? R is said to be submodular [4] if for all subsets S, T ? V , it holds that f (S) + f (T ) ? f (S ? T ) + f (S ? T ). Defining f (j|S) , f (S ? j) ? f (S) as the gain of j ? V in the context of S ? V , then f is submodular if and only if f (j|S) ? f (j|T ) for all S ? T and j? / T . The function f is monotone iff f (j|S) ? 0, ?j ? / S, S ? V . For convenience, we assume the ground set is V = {1, 2, ? ? ? , n}. While general set function optimization is often intractable, many forms of submodular function optimization can be solved near optimally or even optimally in certain cases. Submodularity, moreover, is inherent in a large class of real-world applications, particularly in machine learning, therefore making them extremely useful in practice. In this paper, we study a new class of discrete optimization problems that have the following form: Problem 1 (SCSC): min{f (X) | g(X) ? c}, and Problem 2 (SCSK): max{g(X) | f (X) ? b}, where f and g are monotone non-decreasing submodular functions that also, w.l.o.g., are normalized (f (?) = g(?) = 0)1 , and where b and c refer to budget and cover parameters respectively. The corresponding constraints are called the submodular cover [29] and submodular knapsack [1] respectively and hence we refer to Problem 1 as Submodular Cost Submodular Cover (henceforth SCSC) and Problem 2 as Submodular Cost Submodular Knapsack (henceforth SCSK). Our motivation stems from an interesting class of problems that require minimizing a certain submodular function f while simultaneously maximizing another submodular function g. We shall see that these naturally 1 A monotone non-decreasing normalized (f (?) = 0) submodular function is called a polymatroid function. 1 occur in applications like sensor placement, data subset selection, and many other machine learning applications. A standard approach used in literature [9, 25, 15] has been to transform these problems into minimizing the difference between submodular functions (also called DS optimization):  Problem 0: min f (X) ? g(X) . (1) X?V While a number of heuristics are available for solving Problem 0, in the worst-case it is NP-hard and inapproximable [9], even when f and g are monotone. Although an exact branch and bound algorithm has been provided for this problem [15], its complexity can be exponential in the worst case. On the other hand, in many applications, one of the submodular functions naturally serves as part of a constraint. For example, we might have a budget on a cooperative cost, in which case Problems 1 and 2 become applicable. The utility of Problems 1 and 2 become apparent when we consider how they occur in real-world applications and how they subsume a number of important optimization problems. Sensor Placement and Feature Selection: Often, the problem of choosing sensor locations can be modeled [19, 9] by maximizing the mutual information between the chosen variables A and the unchosen set V \A (i.e.,f (A) = I(XA ; XV \A )). Alternatively, we may wish to maximize the mutual information between a set of chosen sensors XA and a quantity of interest C (i.e., f (A) = I(XA ; C)) assuming that the set of features XA are conditionally independent given C [19, 9]. Both these functions are submodular. Since there are costs involved, we want to simultaneously minimize the cost g(A). Often this cost is submodular [19, 9]. For example, there is typically a discount when purchasing sensors in bulk (economies of scale). This then becomes a form of either Problem 1 or 2. Data subset selection: A data subset selection problem in speech and NLP involves finding a limited vocabulary which simultaneously has a large coverage. This is particularly useful, for example in speech recognition and machine translation, where the complexity of the algorithm is determined by the vocabulary size. The motivation for this problem is to find the subset of training examples which will facilitate evaluation of prototype systems [23]. Often the objective functions encouraging small vocabulary subsets and large acoustic spans are submodular [23, 20] and hence this problem can naturally be cast as an instance of Problems 1 and 2. Privacy Preserving Communication: Given a set of random variables X1 , ? ? ? , Xn , denote I as an information source, and P as private information that should be filtered out. Then one way of formulating the problem of choosing a information containing but privacy preserving set of random variables can be posed as instances of Problems 1 and 2, with f (A) = H(XA |I) and g(A) = H(XA |P), where H(?|?) is the conditional entropy. Machine Translation: Another application in machine translation is to choose a subset of training data that is optimized for given test data set, a problem previously addressed with modular functions [24]. Defining a submodular function with ground set over the union of training and test sample inputs V = Vtr ? Vte , we can set f : 2Vtr ? R+ to f (X) = f (X|Vte ), and take g(X) = |X|, and b ? 0 in Problem 2 to address this problem. We call this the Submodular Span problem. Apart from the real-world applications above, both Problems 1 and 2 generalize a number of wellstudied discrete optimization problems. For example the Submodular Set Cover problem (henceforth SSC) [29] occurs as a special case of Problem 1, with f being modular and g is submodular. Similarly the Submodular Cost Knapsack problem (henceforth SK) [28] is a special case of problem 2 again when f is modular and g submodular. Both these problems subsume the Set Cover and Max k-Cover problems [3]. When both f and g are modular, Problems 1 and 2 are called knapsack problems [16]. The following are some of our contributions. We show that Problems 1 and 2 are intimately connected, in that any approximation algorithm for either problem can be used to provide guarantees for the other problem as well. We then provide a framework of combinatorial algorithms based on optimizing, sometimes iteratively, subproblems that are easy to solve. These subproblems are obtained by computing either upper or lower bound approximations of the cost functions or constraining functions. We also show that many combinatorial algorithms like the greedy algorithm for SK [28] and SSC [29] also belong to this framework and provide the first constant-factor bi-criterion approximation algorithm for SSC [29] and hence the general set cover problem [3]. We then show how with suitable choices of approximate functions, we can obtain a number of bounded approximation guarantees and show the hardness for Problems 1 and 2, which in fact match some of our approximation guarantees. Our guarantees and hardness results depend on the curvature of the submodular functions [2]. We observe a strong asymmetry in the results that the factors change 2 polynomially based on the curvature of f but only by a constant-factor with the curvature of g, hence making the SK and SSC much easier compared to SCSK and SCSC. 2 Background and Main Ideas We first introduce several key concepts used throughout the paper. This paper includes only the main results and we defer all the proofs and additional discussions to the extended version [11]. \j) Given a submodular function f , we define the total curvature, ?f as2 : ?f = 1 ? minj?V f (j|V [2]. f (j) Intuitively, the curvature 0 ? ?f ? 1 measures the distance P of f from modularity and ?f = 0 if and only if f is modular (or additive, i.e., f (X) = j?X f (j)). A number of approximation guarantees in the context of submodular optimization have been refined via the curvature of the submodular function [2, 13, 12]. In this paper, we shall witness the role of curvature also in determining the approximations and the hardness of problems 1 and 2. The main idea of this paper is a framework of Algorithm 1: General algorithmic framework to algorithms based on choosing appropriate sur- address both Problems 1 and 2 rogate functions for f and g to optimize over. 1: for t = 1, 2, ? ? ? , T do This framework is represented in Algorithm 1. 2: Choose surrogate functions f?t and g?t for f We would like to choose surrogate functions f?t and g respectively, tight at X t?1 . and g?t such that using them, Problems 1 and 2 3: Obtain X t as the optimizer of Problem 1 or become easier. If the algorithm is just single 2 with f?t and g?t instead of f and g. stage (not iterative), we represent the surrogates 4: end for as f? and g?. The surrogate functions we consider in this paper are in the forms of bounds (upper or lower) and approximations. Modular lower bounds: Akin to convex functions, submodular functions have tight modular lower bounds. These bounds are related to the subdifferential ?f (Y ) of the submodular set function f at a set Y ? V [4]. Denote a subgradient at Y by hY ? ?f (Y ). The extreme points of ?f (Y ) may be computed via a greedy algorithm: Let ? be a permutation of V that assigns the elements in Y to the first |Y | positions (?(i) ? Y if and only if i ? |Y |). Each such permutation defines a chain ? with elements S0? = ?, Si? = {?(1), ?(2), . . . , ?(i)} and S|Y | = Y . This chain defines an extreme ? ? ? ? point hY of ?f (Y ) with entries hY (?(i))P = f (Si ) ? f (Si?1 ). Defined as above, h?Y forms a lower bound of f , tight at Y ? i.e., h?Y (X) = j?X h?Y (j) ? f (X), ?X ? V and h?Y (Y ) = f (Y ). Modular upper bounds: We can also define superdifferentials ? f (Y ) of a submodular function [14, 10] at Y . It is possible, moreover, to provide specific supergradients [10, 13] that define the following two modular upper bounds (when referring either one, we use mfX ): mfX,1 (Y ) , f (X) ? X j?X\Y f (j|X\j) + X f (j|?), mfX,2 (Y ) , f (X) ? j?Y \X X j?X\Y f (j|V \j) + X f (j|X). j?Y \X Then mfX,1 (Y ) ? f (Y ) and mfX,2 (Y ) ? f (Y ), ?Y ? V and mfX,1 (X) = mfX,2 (X) = f (X). MM algorithms using upper/lower bounds: Using the modular upper and lower bounds above in Algorithm 1, provide a class of Majorization-Minimization (MM) algorithms, akin to the algorithms proposed in [13] for submodular optimization and in [25, 9] for DS optimization (Problem 0 above). An appropriate choice of the bounds ensures that the algorithm always improves the objective values for Problems 1 and 2. In particular, choosing f?t as a modular upper bound of f tight at X t , or g?t as a modular lower bound of g tight at X t , or both, ensures that the objective value of Problems 1 and 2 always improves at every iteration as long as the corresponding surrogate problem can be solved exactly. Unfortunately, Problems 1 and 2 are NP-hard even if f or g (or both) are modular [3], and therefore the surrogate problems themselves cannot be solved exactly. Fortunately, the surrogate problems are often much easier than the original ones and can admit log or constant-factor guarantees. In practice, moreover, these factors are almost 1. Furthermore, with a simple modification of the iterative procedure of Algorithm 1, we can guarantee improvement at every iteration [11]. What is also fortunate and perhaps surprising, as we show in this paper below, is that unlike the case of DS optimization (where the problem is inapproximable in general [9]), the constrained forms of optimization (Problems 1 and 2) do have approximation guarantees. 2 We can assume, w.l.o.g that f (j) > 0, g(j) > 0, ?j ? V 3 Ellipsoidal Approximation: We also consider ellipsoidal approximations (EA) of f . The main result of Goemans et. al [6] is to provide an algorithm based on approximating the submodular polyhedron by an ellipsoid. They p show that for any polymatroid function f , one can compute an approximation of the form wf (X) p for a certain modular weight vector wf ? RV , such p ? that wf (X) ? f (X) ? O( n log n) wf (X), ?X ? V . A simple trick then provides a curvature-dependent ? we define the ?f -curve-normalized version of f as  approximation [12]  P follows: f ? (X) , f (X) ? (1 ? ?f ) j?X f (j) /?f . Then, the submodular function f ea (X) = p P ?f wf ? (X) + (1 ? ?f ) j?X f (j) satisfies [12]: ea f (X) ? f (X) ? O  ? n log n ? 1 + ( n log n ? 1)(1 ? ?f )  f ea (X), ?X ? V (2) ? f ea is multiplicatively bounded by f by a factor depending on n and the curvature. We shall use the result above in providing approximation bounds for Problems 1 and 2. In particular, the surrogate functions f? or g? in Algorithm 1 can be the ellipsoidal approximations above, and the multiplicative bounds transform into approximation guarantees for these problems. 3 Relation between SCSC and SCSK In this section, we show a precise relationship between Problems 1 and 2. From the formulation of Problems 1 and 2, it is clear that these problems are duals of each other. Indeed, in this section we show that the problems are polynomially transformable into each other. Algorithm 2: Approx. algorithm for SCSK us- Algorithm 3: Approx. algorithm for SCSC using an approximation algorithm for SCSK. ing an approximation algorithm for SCSC. 1: Input: An SCSC instance with cover c, an 1: Input: An SCSK instance with budget b, an [?, ?] approx. algo. for SCSK, &  > 0. [?, ?] approx. algo. for SCSC, &  ? [0, 1). 2: Output: [(1 + )?, ?] approx. for SCSC. 2: Output: [(1 ? )?, ?] approx. for SCSK. ?b ? ?. ?c ? V . 3: b ? argminj f (j), X 3: c ? g(V ), X ?c ) > ?b do ?b ) < ?c do 4: while f (X 4: while g(X 5: c ? (1 ? )c 5: b ? (1 + )b 6: X?c ? [?, ?] approx. for SCSC using c. 6: X?b ? [?, ?] approx. for SCSK using b. 7: end while 7: end while We first introduce the notion of bicriteria algorithms. An algorithm is a [?, ?] bi-criterion algorithm for Problem 1 if it is guaranteed to obtain a set X such that f (X) ? ?f (X ? ) (approximate optimality) and g(X) ? c0 = ?c (approximate feasibility), where X ? is an optimizer of Problem 1. Similarly, an algorithm is a [?, ?] bi-criterion algorithm for Problem 2 if it is guaranteed to obtain a set X such that g(X) ? ?g(X ? ) and f (X) ? b0 = ?b, where X ? is the optimizer of Problem 2. In a bi-criterion algorithm for Problems 1 and 2, typically ? ? 1 and ? ? 1. A non-bicriterion algorithm for Problem 1 is when ? = 1 and a non-bicriterion algorithm for Problem 2 is when ? = 1. Algorithms 2 and 3 provide the schematics for using an approximation algorithm for one of the problems for solving the other. Theorem 3.1. Algorithm 2 is guaranteed to find a set X?c which is a [(1 ? )?, ?] approximation of SCSK in at most log1/(1?) [g(V )/ minj g(j)] calls to the [?, ?] approximate algorithm for SCSC. Similarly, Algorithm 3 is guaranteed to find a set X?b which is a [(1 + )?, ?] approximation of SCSC in log1+ [f (V )/ minj f (j)] calls to a [?, ?] approximate algorithm for SCSK. Theorem 3.1 implies that the complexity of Problems 1 and 2 are identical, and a solution to one of them provides a solution to the other. Furthermore, as expected, the hardness of Problems 1 and 2 are also almost identical. When f and g are polymatroid functions, moreover, we can provide bounded approximation guarantees for both problems, as shown in the next section. Alternatively we can also do a binary search instead of a linear search to transform Problems 1 and 2. This essentially turns the factor of O(1/) into O(log 1/). Due to lack of space, we defer this discussion to the extended version [11]. 4 4 Approximation Algorithms We consider several algorithms for Problems 1 and 2, which can all be characterized by the framework of Algorithm 1, using the surrogate functions of the form of upper/lower bounds or approximations. 4.1 Approximation Algorithms for SCSC We first describe our approximation algorithms designed specifically for SCSC, leaving to ?4.2 the presentation of our algorithms slated for SCSK. We first investigate a special case, the submodular set cover (SSC), and then provide two algorithms, one of them (ISSC) is very practical with a weaker theoretical guarantee, and another one (EASSC) which is slow but has the tightest guarantee. Submodular Set Cover (SSC): We start by considering a classical special case of SCSC (Problem 1) where f is already a modular function and g is a submodular function. This problem occurs naturally in a number of problems related to active/online learning [7] and summarization [21, 22]. This problem was first investigated by Wolsey [29], wherein he showed that a simple greedy algorithm achieves bounded (in fact, log-factor) approximation guarantees. We show that this greedy algorithm can naturally be viewed in the framework of our Algorithm 1 by choosing appropriate surrogate functions f?t and g?t . The idea is to use the modular function f as its own surrogate f?t and choose the function g?t as a modular lower bound of g. Akin to the framework of algorithms in [13], the crucial factor is the choice of the lower bound (or subgradient). Define the greedy subgradient as:   f (j) ? ? ?(i) ? argmin j ? / S , g(S ? j) < c . (3) i?1 i?1 ? ) g(j|Si?1 ? ? Once we reach an i where the constraint g(Si?1 ? j) < c can no longer be satisfied by any j ? / Si?1 , we choose the remaining elements for ? arbitrarily. Let the corresponding subgradient be referred to as h? . Then we have the following lemma, which is an extension of [29], and which is a simpler description of the result stated formally in [11]. Lemma 4.1. The greedy algorithm for SSC [29] can be seen as an instance of Algorithm 1 by choosing the surrogate function f? as f and g? as h? (with ? defined in Eqn. (3)). When g is integral, the guarantee of the greedy algorithm is Hg , H(maxj g(j)), where Pd H(d) = i=1 1i [29] (henceforth we will use Hg for this quantity). This factor is tight up to lowerorder terms [3]. Furthermore, since this algorithm directly solves SSC, we call it the primal greedy. We could also solve SSC by looking at its dual, which is SK [28]. Although SSC does not admit any constant-factor approximation algorithms [3], we can obtain a constant-factor bi-criterion guarantee: Lemma 4.2. Using the greedy algorithm for SK [28] as the approximation oracle in Algorithm 3 provides a [1 + , 1 ? e?1 ] bi-criterion approximation algorithm for SSC, for any  > 0. We call this the dual greedy. This result follows immediately from the guarantee of the submodular cost knapsack problem [28] and Theorem 3.1. We remark that we can also use a simpler version of the greedy iteration at every iteration [21, 17] and we obtain a guarantee of (1 + , 1/2(1 ? e?1 )). In practice, however, both these factors are almost 1 and hence the simple variant of the greedy algorithm suffices. Iterated Submodular Set Cover (ISSC): We next investigate an algorithm for the general SCSC problem when both f and g are submodular. The idea here is to iteratively solve the submodular set cover problem which can be done by replacing f by a modular upper bound at every iteration. In particular, this can be seen as a variant of Algorithm 1, where we start with X 0 = ? and choose f?t (X) = mfX t (X) at every iteration. The surrogate problem at each iteration becomes min{mfX t (X)|g(X) ? c}. Hence, each iteration is an instance of SSC and can be solved nearly optimally using the greedy algorithm. We can continue this algorithm for T iterations or until convergence. An analysis very similar to the ones in [9, 13] will reveal polynomial time convergence. Since each iteration is only the greedy algorithm, this approach is also highly practical and scalable. K H g g n Theorem 4.3. ISSC obtains an approximation factor of 1+(Kg ?1)(1?? ? 1+(n?1)(1?? Hg where f) f) Kg = 1 + max{|X| : g(X) < c} and Hg is the approximation factor of the submodular set cover using g. 5 From the above, it is clear that Kg ? n. Notice also that Hg is essentially a log-factor. We also see an interesting effect of the curvature ?f of f . When f is modular (?f = 0), we recover the approximation guarantee of the submodular set cover problem. Similarly, when f has restricted curvature, the guarantees can be much better. Moreover, the approximation guarantee already holds after the first iteration, so additional iterations can only further improve the objective. Ellipsoidal Approximation based Submodular Set Cover (EASSC): In this setting, we use the ellipsoidal approximation discussed in ?2. We can compute the version of f ??f -curve-normalized ? ? f (f , see ?2), and then p compute its ellipsoidal approximation w . We then define the function P f?(X) = f ea (X) = ?f wf ? (X) + (1 ? ?f ) j?X f (j) and use this as the surrogate function f? for f . We choose g? as g itself. The surrogate problem becomes: ? ? ? ? q X (4) f (j) g(X) ? c . min ?f wf ? (X) + (1 ? ?f ) ? ? j?X While function f?(X) = f ea (X) is not modular, it is a weighted sum of a concave over modular function and a modular function. p Fortunately, we can use the result from [26], where they show that any function of the form of w1 (X) + w2 (X) can be optimized over any polytope P with an approximation factor of ?(1 + ) for any  > 0, where ? is the approximation factor of optimizing a modular function over P. The complexity of this algorithm is polynomial in n and 1 . We use their algorithm to minimize f ea (X) over the submodular set cover constraint and hence we call this algorithm EASSC. ? n log nH g Theorem 4.4. EASSC obtains a guarantee of O( 1+(?n log n?1)(1?? ), where Hg is the approximaf) tion guarantee of the set cover problem. If the function f has ?f = 1, we can use a much simpler algorithm. In particular, we can minimize (f ea (X))2 = wf (X) at every iteration, giving a surrogate problem of the form min{wf (X)|g(X) ? c}. This is directly an instance of SSC, and in contrast to EASSC, we just need to solve SSC once. We call this algorithm EASSCc. p ? Corollary 4.5. EASSCc obtains an approximation guarantee of O( n log n Hg ). 4.2 Approximation Algorithms for SCSK In this section, we describe our approximation algorithms for SCSK. We note the dual nature of the algorithms in this current section to those given in ?4.1. We first investigate a special case, the submodular knapsack (SK), and then provide three algorithms, two of them (Gr and ISK) being practical with slightly weaker theoretical guarantee, and another one (EASK) which is not scalable but has the tightest guarantee. Submodular Cost Knapsack (SK): We start with a special case of SCSK (Problem 2), where f is a modular function and g is a submodular function. In this case, SCSK turns into the SK problem for which the greedy algorithm with partial enumeration provides a 1 ? e?1 approximation [28]. The greedy algorithm can be seen as an instance of Algorithm 1 with g? being the modular lower bound of g and f? being f , which is already modular. In particular, define:   ? g(j|Si?1 ) ? ? ?(i) ? argmax j ? / S , f (S ? {j}) ? b , (5) i?1 i?1 f (j) where the remaining elements are chosen arbitrarily. The following is an informal description of the result described formally in [11]. Lemma 4.6. Choosing the surrogate function f? as f and g? as h? (with ? defined in eqn (5)) in Algorithm 1 with appropriate initialization obtains a guarantee of 1 ? 1/e for SK. Greedy (Gr): A similar greedy algorithm can provide approximation guarantees for the general SCSK problem, with submodular f and g. Unlike the knapsack case in (5), however, at iteration ? i we choose an element j ? / Si?1 : f (Si?1 ? {j}) ? b which maximizes g(j|Si?1 ). In terms of Algorithm 1, this is analogous to choosing a permutation, ? such that: ? ? ? ?(i) ? argmax{g(j|Si?1 )|j ? / Si?1 , f (Si?1 ? {j}) ? b}. 6 (6) K ?? Theorem 4.7. The greedy algorithm for SCSK obtains an approx. factor of ?1g (1 ? ( fKf g )kf ) ? 1 Kf , where Kf = max{|X| : f (X) ? b} and kf = min{|X| : f (X) ? b & ?j ? X, f (X ?j) > b}. In the worst case, kf = 1 and Kf = n, in which case the guarantee is 1/n. The bound above follows from a simple observation that the constraint {f (X) ? b} is down-monotone for a monotone function f . However, in this variant, we do not use any specific information about f . In particular it holds for maximizing a submodular function g over any down monotone constraint [2]. Hence it is conceivable that an algorithm that uses both f and g to choose the next element could provide better bounds. We do not, however, currently have the analysis for this. Iterated Submodular Cost Knapsack (ISK): Here, we choose f?t (X) as a modular upper bound of f , tight at X t . Let g?t = g. Then at every iteration, we solve max{g(X)|mfX t (X) ? b}, which is a submodular maximization problem subject to a knapsack constraint (SK). As mentioned above, P greedy can solve this nearly optimally. We start with X 0 = ?, choose f?0 (X) = j?X f (j) and then iteratively continue this process until convergence (note that this is an ascent algorithm). We have the following theoretical guarantee: t t ?1 ? ? Theorem 4.8. Algorithm n ISK obtains a set X such that g(X o ) ? (1?e )g(X), where X is the optib(1+(Kf ?1)(1??f ) mal solution of max g(X) | f (X) ? and where Kf = max{|X| : f (X) ? b}. Kf It is worth pointing out that the above bound holds even after the first iteration of the algorithm. It is interesting to note the similarity between this approach and ISSC. Notice that the guarantee above is not a standard bi-criterion approximation. We show in the extended version [11] that with a simple transformation, we can obtain a bicriterion guarantee. Ellipsoidal Approximation based Submodular Cost Knapsack (EASK): Choosing the Ellipsoidal Approximation f ea of f as a surrogate function, we obtain a simpler problem: ? ? q ? ? X ? max g(X) ?f wf (X) + (1 ? ?f ) f (j) ? b . (7) ? ? j?X In order to solve this problem, we look at its dual problem (i.e., Eqn. (4)) and use Algorithm 2 to convert the guarantees. We call this procedure EASK. We then obtain guarantees very similar to Theorem 4.4. h i ? n log nHg Lemma 4.9. EASK obtains a guarantee of 1 + , O( 1+(?n log n?1)(1?? ) . ) f In the case when the submodular function has a curvature ?f = 1, we can actually provide a simpler algorithm without needing to use the conversion algorithm (Algorithm 2). In this case, we can p directly choose the ellipsoidal approximation of f as wf (X) and solve the surrogate problem: max{g(X) : wf (X) ? b2 }. This surrogate problem is a submodular cost knapsack problem, which we can solve using the greedy algorithm. We call this algorithm EASKc. This guarantee is tight up to log factors if ?f = 1. ? Corollary 4.10. Algorithm EASKc obtains a bi-criterion guarantee of [1 ? e?1 , O( n log n)]. 4.3 Extensions beyond SCSC and SCSK SCSC and SCSK can in fact be extended to more flexible and complicated constraints which can arise naturally in many applications [18, 8]. These include multiple covering and knapsack constraints ? i.e., min{f (X)|gi (X) ? ci , i = 1, 2, ? ? ? k} and max{g(X)|fi (X) ? bi , i = 1, 2, ? ? ? k}, and robust optimization problems like max{mini gi (X)|f (X) ? b}, where the functions f, g, fi ?s and gi ?s are submodular. We also consider SCSC and SCSK with non-monotone submodular functions. Due to lack of space, we defer these discussions to the extended version of this paper [11]. 4.4 Hardness In this section, we provide the hardness for Problems 1 and 2. The lower bounds serve to show that the approximation factors above are almost tight. 7 Theorem 4.11. For any ? > 0, there exists submodular functions with curvature ? such that no polynomial time algorithm for Problems 1 and 2 achieves a bi-criterion factor better than ? n1/2? ? = 1+(n1/2? ?1)(1??) for any  > 0. The above result shows that EASSC and EASK meet the bounds above to log factors. We see an interesting curvature-dependent influence on the hardness. We also see this phenomenon in the approximation guarantees of our algorithms. In particular, as soon as f becomes modular, the problem becomes easy, even when g is submodular. This is not surprising since the submodular set cover problem and the submodular cost knapsack problem both have constant factor guarantees. 5 Experiments In this section, we empirically compare the performance of the various algorithms discussed in this paper. We are motivated by the speech data subset selection application [20, 23] with the submodular function f encouraging limited vocabulary while g tries to achieve acoustic variability. A natural choice of the function f is a function of the form |?(X)|, where ?(X) is the neighborhood function on a bipartite graph constructed between the utterances and the words [23]. For thePcoverage function g, we use two types of coverage: one is a facility location P function Pg1 (X) = Pi?V maxj?X sij while the other is a saturated sum function g2 (X) = i?V min{ j?X sij , ? j?V sij }. Both these functions are defined in terms of a similarity matrix S = {sij }i,j?V , which we define on the TIMIT corpus [5], using the string kernel metric [27] for similarity. Since some of our algorithms, like the Ellipsoidal Approximations, are computationally intensive, we restrict ourselves to 50 utterances. Fac. Location/ Bipartite Neighbor. Saturated Sum/ Bipartite Neighbor We compare our different algorithms on 50 Problems 1 and 2 with f being the bipartite 40 300 neighborhood and g being the facility location 30 200 and saturated sum respectively. Furthermore, 20 100 10 in our experiments, we observe that the neigh0 0 borhood function f has a curvature ?f = 1. 0 100 200 250 20 40 60 80 100 f(X) f(X) Thus, it suffices to use the simpler versions Figure 1: Comparison of the algorithms in the text. of algorithm EA (i.e., algorithm EASSCc and EASKc). The results are shown in Figure 1. We observe that on the real-world instances, all our algorithms perform almost comparably. This implies, moreover, that the iterative variants, viz. Gr, ISSC and ISK, perform comparably to the more complicated EA-based ones, although EASSC and EASK have better theoretical guarantees. We also compare against a baseline of selecting random sets (of varying cardinality), and we see that our algorithms all perform much better. In terms of the running time, computing the Ellipsoidal Approximation for |?(X)| with |V | = 50 takes about 5 hours while all the iterative variants (i.e., Gr, ISSC and ISK) take less than a second. This difference is much more prominent on larger instances (for example |V | = 500). EASSCc ISK Gr EASKc Random 6 g(X) g(X) ISSC ISSC EASSCc ISK Gr EASKc Random Discussions In this paper, we propose a unifying framework for problems 1 and 2 based on suitable surrogate functions. We provide a number of iterative algorithms which are very practical and scalable (like Gr, ISK and ISSC), and also algorithms like EASSC and EASK, which though more intensive, obtain tight approximation bounds. Finally, we empirically compare our algorithms, and show that the iterative algorithms compete empirically with the more complicated and theoretically better approximation algorithms. For future work, we would like to empirically evaluate our algorithms on many of the real world problems described above, particularly the limited vocabulary data subset selection application for speech corpora, and the machine translation application. 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How to select a good training-data subset for transcription: Submodular active selection for sequences. In Interspeech, 2009. [21] H. Lin and J. Bilmes. Multi-document summarization via budgeted maximization of submodular functions. In NAACL, 2010. [22] H. Lin and J. Bilmes. A class of submodular functions for document summarization. In The 49th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (ACL/HLT2011), Portland, OR, June 2011. [23] H. Lin and J. Bilmes. Optimal selection of limited vocabulary speech corpora. In Interspeech, 2011. [24] R. C. Moore and W. Lewis. Intelligent selection of language model training data. In Proceedings of the ACL 2010 Conference Short Papers, pages 220?224. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2010. [25] M. Narasimhan and J. Bilmes. A submodular-supermodular procedure with applications to discriminative structure learning. In UAI, 2005. [26] E. Nikolova. Approximation algorithms for offline risk-averse combinatorial optimization, 2010. [27] J. Rousu and J. Shawe-Taylor. Efficient computation of gapped substring kernels on large alphabets. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6(2):1323, 2006. [28] M. Sviridenko. A note on maximizing a submodular set function subject to a knapsack constraint. Operations Research Letters, 32(1):41?43, 2004. [29] L. A. Wolsey. An analysis of the greedy algorithm for the submodular set covering problem. Combinatorica, 2(4):385?393, 1982. 9
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How to Hedge an Option Against an Adversary: Black-Scholes Pricing is Minimax Optimal Jacob Abernethy University of Michigan [email protected] Peter L. Bartlett University of California at Berkeley and Queensland University of Technology [email protected] Rafael M. Frongillo Microsoft Research [email protected] Andre Wibisono University of California at Berkeley [email protected] Abstract We consider a popular problem in finance, option pricing, through the lens of an online learning game between Nature and an Investor. In the Black-Scholes option pricing model from 1973, the Investor can continuously hedge the risk of an option by trading the underlying asset, assuming that the asset?s price fluctuates according to Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). We consider a worst-case model, in which Nature chooses a sequence of price fluctuations under a cumulative quadratic volatility constraint, and the Investor can make a sequence of hedging decisions. Our main result is to show that the value of our proposed game, which is the ?regret? of hedging strategy, converges to the Black-Scholes option price. We use significantly weaker assumptions than previous work?for instance, we allow large jumps in the asset price?and show that the Black-Scholes hedging strategy is near-optimal for the Investor even in this non-stochastic framework. 1 Introduction An option is a financial contract that allows the purchase or sale of a given asset, such as a stock, bond, or commodity, for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. The contract is named as such because the transaction in question is optional for the purchaser of the contract. Options are bought and sold for any number of reasons, but in particular they allow firms and individuals with risk exposure to hedge against potential price fluctuations. Airlines, for example, have heavy fuel costs and hence are frequent buyers of oil options. What ought we pay for the privilege of purchasing an asset at a fixed price on a future expiration date? The difficulty with this question, of course, is that while we know the asset?s previous prices, we are uncertain as to its future price. In a seminal paper from 1973, Fischer Black and Myron Scholes introduced what is now known as the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, which led to a boom in options trading as well as a huge literature on the problem of derivative pricing [2]. Black and Scholes had a key insight that a firm which had sold/purchased an option could ?hedge? against the future cost/return of the option by buying and selling the underlying asset as its price fluctuates. Their model is based on stochastic calculus and requires a critical assumption that the asset?s price behaves according to a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with known drift and volatility. The GBM assumption in particular implies that (almost surely) an asset?s price fluctuates continuously. The Black-Scholes model additionally requires that the firm be able to buy and sell continuously until the option?s expiration date. Neither of these properties are true in practice: the stock market is only open eight hours per day, and stock prices are known to make significant jumps even 1 during regular trading. These and other empirical observations have led to much criticism of the Black-Scholes model. An alternative model for option pricing was considered1 by DeMarzo et al. [3], who posed the question: ?Can we construct hedging strategies that are robust to adversarially chosen price fluctuations?? Essentially, the authors asked if we may consider hedging through the lens of regret minimization in online learning, an area that has proved fruitful, especially for obtaining guarantees robust to worst-case conditions. Within this minimax option pricing framework, DeMarzo et al. provided a particular algorithm resembling the Weighted Majority and Hedge algorithms [5, 6] with a nice bound. Recently, Abernethy et al. [1] took the minimax option pricing framework a step further, analyzing the zero-sum game being played between an Investor, who is attempting to replicate the option payoff, and Nature, who is sequentially setting the price changes of the underlying asset. The Investor?s goal is to ?hedge? the payoff of the option as the price fluctuates, whereas Nature attempts to foil the Investor by choosing a challenging sequence of price fluctuations. The value of this game can be interpreted as the ?minimax option price,? since it is what the Investor should pay for the option against an adversarially chosen price path. The main result of Abernethy et al. was to show that the game value approaches the Black-Scholes option price as the Investor?s trading frequency increases. Put another way, the minimax price tends to the option price under the GBM assumption. This lends significant further credibility to the Black-Scholes model, as it suggests that the GBM assumption may already be a ?worst-case model? in a certain sense. The previous result, while useful and informative, left two significant drawbacks. First, their techniques used minimax duality to compute the value of the game, but no particular hedging algorithm for the Investor is given. This is in contrast to the Black-Scholes framework (as well as to the DeMarzo et al.?s result [3]) in which a hedging strategy is given explicitly. Second, the result depended on a strong constraint on Nature?s choice of price path: the multiplicative price variance is uniformly constrained, which forbids price jumps and other large fluctuations. In this paper, we resolve these two drawbacks. We consider the problem of minimax option pricing with much weaker constraints: we restrict the sum over the length of the game of the squared price fluctuations to be no more than a constant c, and we allow arbitrary price jumps, up to a bound ?. We show that the minimax option price is exactly the Black-Scholes price of the option, up to an additive term of O(c? 1/4 ). Furthermore, we give an explicit hedging strategy: this upper bound is achieved when the Investor?s strategy is essentially a version of the Black-Scholes hedging algorithm. 2 The Black-Scholes Formula Let us now briefly review the Black-Scholes pricing formula and hedging strategy. The derivation requires some knowledge of continuous random walks and stochastic calculus?Brownian motion, It?o?s Lemma, a second-order partial differential equation?and we shall only give a cursory treatment of the material. For further development we recommend a standard book on stochastic calculus, e.g. [8]. Let us imagine we have an underlying asset A whose price is fluctuating. We let W (t) be a Brownian motion, also known as a Weiner process, with zero drift and unit variance; in particular, W (0) = 0 and W (t) ? N (0, t) for t > 0. We shall imagine that A?s price path G(t) is described by a geometric Brownian motion with drift ? and volatility , which we can describe via d the definition of a Brownian motion: G(t) = exp{(? 12 2 )t + W (t)}. If an Investor purchases a European call option on some asset A (say, MSFT stock) with a strike price of K > 0 that matures at time T , then the Investor has the right to buy a share of A at price K at time T . Of course, if the market price of A at T is G(T ), then the Investor will only ?exercise? the option if G(T ) > K, since the Investor has no benefit of purchasing the asset at a price higher than the market price. Hence, the payoff of a European call option has a profit function of the form max{0, G(T ) K}. Throughout the paper we shall use gEC (x) := max{0, x K} to refer to the payout of the European call when the price of asset A at time T is x (the parameter K is implicit). 1 Although it does not have quite the same flavor, a similar approach was explored in the book of Vovk and Shafer [7]. 2 We assume the current time is t. The Black-Scholes derivation begins with a guess: assume that the ?value? of the European call option can be described by a smooth function V(G(t), t), depending only on the current price of the asset G(t) and the time to expiration T t. We can immediately define a boundary condition on V, since at the expiration time T the value of the option is V(G(T ), 0) = gEC (G(T )). So how do we arrive at a value for the option at another time point t? We assume the Investor has a hedging strategy, (x, t) that determines the amount to invest when the current price is x and the time is t. Notice that if the asset?s current price is G(t) and the Investor purchases (G(t), t) dollars of asset A at t, then the incremental amount of money made in an infinitesimal amount of time is (G(t), t) dG/G(t), since dG/G(t) is the instantaneous multiplicative price change at time t. Of course, if the earnings of the Investor are guaranteed to exactly cancel out the infinitesimal change in the value of the option dV(G(t), t), then the Investor is totally hedged with respect to the option payout for any sample of G for the remaining time to expiration. In other words, we hope to achieve dV(G, t) = (G, t) dG/G. However, by It?o?s Lemma [8] we have the following useful identity: @V @V 1 2 2 @2V dG + dt + G dt. @x @t 2 @x2 Black and Scholes proposed a generic hedging strategy, that the investor should invest dV(G, t) = (1) @V (2) @x dollars in the asset A when the price of A is x at time t. As mentioned, the goal of the Investor is to hedge out risk so that it is always the case that dV(G, t) = (G, t) dG/G. Combining this goal with Equations (1) and (2), we have (x, t) = x @V 1 2 2 @2V + x = 0. @t 2 @x2 Notice the latter is an entirely non-stochastic PDE, and indeed it can be solved explicitly: V(x, t) = EY [gEC (x ? exp(Y ))] where Y ? N( 1 2 2 (T t), 2 (T t)) (3) (4) Remark: While we have described the derivation for the European call option, with payoff function gEC , the analysis above does not rely on this specific choice of g. We refer the reader to a standard text on asset pricing for more on this [8]. 3 The Minimax Hedging Game We now describe a sequential decision protocol in which an Investor makes a sequence of trading decisions on some underlying asset, with the goal of hedging away the risk of some option (or other financial derivative) whose payout depends on the final price of the asset at the expiration time T . We assume the Investor is allowed to make a trading decision at each of n time periods, and before making this trade the investor observes how the price of the asset has changed since the previous period. Without loss of generality, we can assume that the current time is 0 and the trading periods occur at {T /n, 2T /n, . . . , 1}, although this will not be necessary for our analysis. The protocol is as follows. 1: Initial price of asset is S = S0 . 2: for i = 1, 2, . . . , n do 3: Investor hedges, invests i 2 R dollars in asset. 4: Nature selects a price fluctuation ri and updates price S S(1 + ri ). 5: Investor receives (potentially negative) profit of i ri . 6: end for Qn 7: Investor is charged the cost of the option, g(S) = g (S0 ? i=1 (1 + ri )). Stepping back for a moment, we see that the Investor is essentially trying to minimize the following objective: ! n n Y X g S0 ? (1 + ri ) i ri . i=1 i=1 3 We can interpret the above Pn expression as a form of regret: the Investor chose to execute a trading strategy, earning him Q i ri , but in hindsight might have rather purchased the option instead, i=1 n with a payout of g (S0 ? i=1 (1 + ri )). What is the best hedging strategy the Investor can execute to minimize the difference between the option payoff and the gains/losses from hedging? Indeed, how much regret may be suffered against a worst-case sequence of price fluctuations? Constraining Nature. The cost of playing the above sequential game is clearly going to depend on how much we expect the price to fluctuate. In the original Black-Scholes formulation, the price volatility is a major parameter in the pricing function. In the work of Abernethy et al., a key assumption was that Nature may choose any r1 , . . . , rn with the constraint that E[ri2 | r1 , . . . , ri 1 ] = O(1/n). 2 Roughly, this constraint means that in any ?-sized time interval, the price fluctuation variance shall be no more than ?. This constraint, however, does not allow for large price jumps during trading. In the present work, we impose a much weaker set of constraints, described as follows:3 Pn ? TotVarConstraint: The total price fluctuation is bounded by a constant c: i=1 ri2 ? c. ? JumpConstraint: Every price jump |ri | is no more than ?, for some ? > 0 (which may depend on n). The first constraint above says that Nature is bounded by how much, in total, the asset?s price path can fluctuate. The latter says that at no given time can the asset?s price jump more than a given value. It is worth noting that if c n? 2 then TotVarConstraint is superfluous, whereas JumpConstraint becomes superfluous if c < ? 2 . The Minimax Option Price We are now in a position to define the value of the sequential option pricing game using a minimax formulation. That is, we shall ask how much the Investor loses when making optimal trading decisions against worst-case price fluctuations chosen by Nature. Let (n) V? (S; c, m) be the value of the game, measured by the investor?s loss, when the asset?s current price is S 0, the TotVarConstraint is c 0, the JumpConstraint is ? > 0, the total number of trading rounds are n 2 N, and there are 0 ? m ? n rounds remaining. We define recursively: (n) V? (S; c, m) = inf (n) sup r + V? 2R r : |r|?min{?,pc} (n) with the base case V? ((1 + r)S; c r2 , m 1), (S; c, 0) = g(S). Notice that the constraint under the supremum en(n) forces both TotVarConstraint and JumpConstraint. For simplicity, we will write V? (n) V? (S; c, n). (5) (S; c) := This is the value of the game that we are interested in analyzing. Towards establishing an upper bound on the value (5), we shall discuss the question of how to choose the hedge parameter on each round. We can refer to a ?hedging strategy? in this game as a function of the tuple (S, c, m, n, ?, g(?)) that returns hedge position. In our upper bound, in fact we need only consider hedging strategies (S, c) that depend on S and c; there certainly will be a dependence on g(?) as well but we leave this implicit. 4 Asymptotic Results The central focus of the present paper is the following question: ?For fixed c and S, what is the (n) asymptotic behavior of the value V? (S; c)?? and ?Is there a natural hedging strategy (S, c) that (roughly) achieves this value?? In other words, what is the minimax value of the option, as well as the optimal hedge, when we fix the variance budget c and the asset?s current price S, but let the number of rounds tend to 1? We now give answers to these questions, and devote the remainder of the paper to developing the results in detail. We consider payoff functions g : R0 ! R0 satisfying three constraints: 2 The constraint in [1] was E[ri2 | r1 , . . . , ri 1 ] ? exp(c/n) 1, but this is roughly equivalent. We note p that Abernethy et al. [1] also assumed that the multiplicative price jumps |ri | are bounded by ??n = ?( (log n)/n); this is a stronger assumption than what we impose on (?n ) in Theorem 1. 3 4 1. g is convex. 2. g is L-Lipschitz, i.e. |g(x) g(y)| ? L|x y|. 3. g is eventually linear, i.e. there exists K > 0 such that g(x) is a linear function for all x K; in this case we also say g is K-linear. We believe the first two conditions are strictly necessary to achieve the desired results. The Klinearity may not be necessary but makes our analysis possible. We note that the constraints above encompass the standard European call and put options. Henceforth we shall let G be a zero-drift GBM with unit volatility. In particular, we have that log G(t) ? N ( 12 t, t). For S, c 0, define the function U (S, c) = EG [g(S ? G(c))], and observe that U (S, 0) = g(S). Our goal will be to show that U is asymptotically the minimax price of the option. Most importantly, this function U (S, c) is identical to V(S, 12 (T c)), the Black-Scholes value of the option in (4) when the GBM volatility parameter is in the BlackScholes analysis. In particular, analogous to to (3), U (S, c) satisfies a differential equation: 1 2 @2U S 2 @S 2 @U = 0. @c (6) The following is our main result of this paper. Theorem 1. Let S > 0 be the initial asset price and let c > 0 be the variance budget. Assume we have a sequence {?n } with limn!1 ?n = 0 and lim inf n!1 n?n2 > c. Then (n) lim V?n (S; c) = U (S, c). n!1 This statement tells us that the minimax price of an option, when Nature has a total fluctuation budget of c, approaches the Black-Scholes price of the option when the time to expiration is c. This is particularly surprising since our minimax pricing framework made no assumptions as to the stochastic process generating the price path. This is the same conclusion as in [1], but we obtained our result with a significantly weaker assumption. Unlike [1], however, we do not show that the adversary?s minimax optimal stochastic price path necessarily converges to a GBM. The convergence of Nature?s price path to GBM in [1] was made possible by the uniform per-round variance constraint. The previous theorem is the result of two main technical contributions. First, we prove a lower (n) bound on the limiting value of V?n (S; c) by exhibiting a simple randomized strategy for Nature in the form of a stochastic price path, and appealing to the Lindeberg-Feller central limit theorem. (n) Second, we prove an O(c? 1/4 ) upper bound on the deviation between V? (S; c) and U (S, c). The upper bound is obtained by providing an explicit strategy for the Investor: (S, c) = S @U (S, c) @S and carefully bounding the difference between the output using this strategy and the game value. In the course of doing so, because we are invoking Taylor?s remainder theorem, we need to bound the first few derivatives of U (S, c). Bounding these derivatives turns out to be the crux of the analysis; in particular, it uses the full force of the assumptions on g, including that g is eventually linear, to avoid the pathological cases when the derivative of g converges to its limiting value very slowly. 5 Lower Bound (n) In this section we prove that U (S, c) is a lower bound to the game value V?n (S; c). We note that the result in this section does not use the assumptions in Theorem 1 that ?n ! 0, nor that g is convex and eventually linear. In particular, the following result also applies when the sequence (?n ) is a constant ? > 0. 5 Theorem 2. Let g : R0 ! R0 be an L-Lipschitz function, and let {?n } be a sequence of positive numbers with lim inf n!1 n?n2 > c. Then for every S, c > 0, (n) lim inf V?n (S; c) U (S, c). n!1 The proof of Theorem 2 is based on correctly ?guessing? a randomized p strategy for Nature. For each n 2 N, define the random variables R1,n , . . . , Rn,n ? Uniform{? c/n} i.i.d. Note that (Ri,n )ni=1 satisfies TotVarConstraint by construction. Moreover, the assumption lim inf n!1 n?n2 > c imp plies ?n > c/n for all sufficiently large n, so eventually (Ri,n ) also satisfies JumpConstraint. We have the following convergence result for (Ri,n ), which we prove in Appendix A. Lemma 3. Under the same setting as in Theorem 2, we have the convergence in distribution n Y d (1 + Ri,n ) ! G(c) as n ! 1. i=1 Moreover, we also have the convergence in expectation " !# n Y lim E g S ? (1 + Ri,n ) = U (S, c). n!1 (7) i=1 With the help of Lemma 3, we are now ready to prove Theorem 2. p Proof of Theorem 2. Let n be sufficiently large such that n?n2 > c. Let Ri,n ? Uniform{? c/n} i.i.d., for 1 ? i ? n. As noted above, (Ri,n ) satisfies both TotVarConstraint and JumpConstraint. Then we have n n ? Y ? X (n) V?n (S; c) = inf sup ? ? ? inf sup g S ? (1 + ri ) i ri 1 r1 n rn i=1 n h ? Y ? inf ? ? ? inf E g S ? (1 + Ri,n ) 1 n i=1 n h ? Y ?i = E g S? (1 + Ri,n ) . i=1 n X i=1 i Ri,n i i=1 The first line follows from unrolling the recursion in the definition (5); the second line from replacing the supremum over (ri ) with expectation over (Ri,n ); and the third line from E[Ri,n ] = 0. Taking limit on both sides and using (7) from Lemma 3 give us the desired conclusion. 6 Upper Bound (n) In this section we prove that U (S, c) is an upper bound to the limit of V? (S; c). Theorem 4. Let g : R0 ! R0 be a convex, L-Lipschitz, K-linear function. Let 0 < ? ? 1/16. Then for any S, c > 0 and n 2 N, we have ? ? 8 (n) V? (S; c) ? U (S, c) + 18c + p LK ? 1/4 . 2? We remark that the right-hand side of the above bound does not depend on the number of trading periods n. The key parameter is ?, which determines the size of the largest price jump of the stock. However, we expect that as the trading frequency increases, the size of the largest price jump will shrink. Plugging a sequence {?n } in place of ? in Theorem 4 gives us the following corollary. Corollary 1. Let g : R0 ! R0 be a convex, L-Lipschitz, K-linear function. Let {?n } be a sequence of positive numbers with ?n ! 0. Then for S, c > 0, (n) lim sup V?n (S; c) ? U (S, c). n!1 Note that the above upper bound relies on the convexity of g, for if g were concave, then we would have the reverse conclusion: (n) V? (S; c) g(S) = g(S ? E[G(c)]) E[g(S ? G(c))] = U (S, c). Here the first inequality follows from setting all r = 0 in (5), and the second is by Jensen?s inequality. 6 6.1 Intuition For brevity, we write the partial derivatives Uc (S, c) = @U (S, c)/@c, US (S, c) = @U (S, c)/@S, and US 2 (S, c) = @ 2 U (S, c)/@S 2 . The proof of Theorem 4 proceeds by providing a ?guess? for the Investor?s action, which is a modification of the original Black-Scholes hedging strategy. Specifically, when the current price is S and the remaining budget is c, then the Investor invests (S, c) := SUS (S, c). (n) We now illustrate how this strategy gives rise to a bound on V? (S; c) as stated in Theorem 4. First (n) V? (S; c, m suppose for some m 1 we know that 1) is a rough approximation to U (S, c). Note 2 that a Taylor approximation of the function rm 7! U (S + Srm , c rm ) around U (S, c) gives us U (S + Srm , c 1 2 2 2 3 rm Uc (S, c) + rm S US 2 (S, c) + O(rm ) 2 3 = U (S, c) + rm SUS (S, c) + O(rm ), 2 rm ) = U (S, c) + rm SUS (S, c) where the last line follows from the Black-Scholes equation (6). Now by setting = SUS (S, c) in the definition (5), and using the assumption and the Taylor approximation above, we obtain (n) V? (S; c, m) = inf (n) sup rm + V ? 2R |r |?min{?,pc} m (n) (S + Srm ; c ? sup rm SUS (S, c) + V? = sup rm SUS (S, c) + U (S + Srm , c rm rm (S + Srm ; c 2 rm ,m 2 rm ,m 1) 1) 2 rm ) + (approx terms) 3 = U (S, c) + O(rm ) + (approx terms). 3 In other words, on each round of the game we add an O(rm ) term to the approximation error. By the Pn (n) time we reach V? (S; c, n) we will have an error term that is roughly on the order of m=1 |rm |3 . Pn Pn 2 Since m=1 rm ? c and |rm | ? ? by assumption, we get m=1 |rm |3 ? ?c. 3 The details are more intricate because the error O(rm ) from the Taylor approximation also depends on S and c. Trading off the dependencies of c and ? leads us to the bound stated in Theorem 4. 6.2 Proof (Sketch) of Theorem 4 In this section we describe an outline of the proof of Theorem 4. Throughout, we assume g is a convex, L-Lipschitz, K-linear function, and 0 < ? ? 1/16. The proofs of Lemma 5 and Lemma 7 are provided in Appendix B, and Lemma 6 is proved in Appendix C. p For S, c > 0 and |r| ? c, we define the (single-round) error term of the Taylor approximation, ?r (S, c) := U (S + Sr, c r2 ) U (S, c) rSUS (S, c). (8) (S, c, m)}nm=0 We also define a sequence {? to keep track of the cumulative errors. We define this sequence by setting ?(n) (S, c, 0) = 0, and for 1 ? m ? n, (n) ?(n) (S, c, m) := sup p ?r (S, c) |r|?min{?, c} + ?(n) (S + Sr, c r2 , m 1). (9) For simplicity, we write ?(n) (S, c) ? ?(n) (S, c, n). Then we have the following result, which (n) formalizes the notion from the preceding section that V? (S; c, m) is an approximation to U (S, c). Lemma 5. For S, c > 0, n 2 N, and 0 ? m ? n, we have (n) V? (S; c, m) ? U (S, c) + ?(n) (S, c, m). (10) It now remains to bound ?(n) (S, c) from above. A key step in doing so is to show the following bounds on ?r . This is where the assumptions that g be L-Lipschitz and K-linear are important. 7 p Lemma 6. For S, c > 0, and |r| ? min{1/16, c/8}, we have ? ?r (S, c) ? 16LK max{c 3/2 , c 1/2 } |r|3 + max{c Moreover, for S > 0, 0 < c ? 1/4, and |r| ? p 2 ,c 1/2 c, we also have ? } r4 . 4LK r2 ?r (S, c) ? p ?p . c 2? (11) (12) Using Lemma 6, we have the following bound on ?(n) (S, c). Lemma 7. For S, c > 0, n 2 N, and 0 < ? ? 1/16, we have ? ? 8 (n) ? (S, c) ? 18c + p LK ? 1/4 . 2? Proof (sketch). By unrolling the inductive definition (9), we can write ?(n) (S, c) as the supremum of f (r1 , . . . , rn ), where f (r1 , . . . , rn ) = n X m=1 ? mY1 ?rm S (1 + ri ), c i=1 Pn m X1 i=1 ? ri2 . 2 Let (r1 , . .p . , rn ) be such that |rm | ? ? and m=1 rm ? c. We will show that f (r1 , . . . , rn ) ? p Pn? 1/4 2 (18c + 8/ 2?) LK ? . Let 0 ? n? ? n be the largest index such that m=1 rm ?c ?. We split the analysis into two parts. 1. For 1 ? m ? min{n, n? + 1}: By (11) from Lemma 6 and a little calculation, we have ? mY1 ?rm S (1 + ri ), c m X1 i=1 i=1 ? 2 ri2 ? 18LK ? 1/4 rm . Summing over 1 ? m ? min{n, n? + 1} then gives us ? mY1 ?rm S (1+ri ), c min{n, n? +1} X m=1 i=1 2. For n? + 2 ? m ? n (if n? ? n ? ?rm S Therefore, n X m=n? +2 ? ?rm S m Y1 i=1 m Y1 m X1 i=1 min{n, n? +1} ? X 2 ri2 ? 18LK ? 1/4 rm ? 18LK ? 1/4 c. m=1 2): By (12) from Lemma 6, we have m X1 (1 + ri ), c i=1 (1 + ri ), c i=1 m X1 ri2 i=1 ? ? 4LK r2 ri2 ? p ? pPnm 2 . 2? i=m ri 4LK ? p 2? n X m=n? +2 r2 pPnm 2 i=m ri 8LK 1/4 ? p ? , 2? where the last inequality follows from Lemma 8 in Appendix B. Combining the two cases above gives us the desired conclusion. Proof of Theorem 4. Theorem 4 follows immediately from Lemma 5 and Lemma 7. Acknowledgments. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the NSF through grant CCF1115788 and of the ARC through Australian Laureate Fellowship FL110100281. 8 References [1] J. Abernethy, R. M. Frongillo, and A. Wibisono. Minimax option pricing meets Black-Scholes in the limit. In Howard J. Karloff and Toniann Pitassi, editors, STOC, pages 1029?1040. ACM, 2012. [2] F. Black and M. Scholes. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. The Journal of Political Economy, pages 637?654, 1973. [3] P. DeMarzo, I. Kremer, and Y. Mansour. Online trading algorithms and robust option pricing. In Proceedings of the 38th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, pages 477?486. ACM, 2006. [4] R. Durrett. Probability: Theory and Examples (Fourth Edition). Cambridge University Press, 2010. [5] Y. Freund and R. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. In Computational learning theory, pages 23?37. Springer, 1995. [6] N. Littlestone and M. K. Warmuth. The weighted majority algorithm. Information and Computation, 108(2):212?261, 1994. [7] G. Shafer and V. Vovk. Probability and Finance: It?s Only a Game!, volume 373. WileyInterscience, 2001. [8] J. M. Steele. Stochastic Calculus and Financial Applications, volume 45. Springer Verlag, 2001. 9
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Small-Variance Asymptotics for Hidden Markov Models Anirban Roychowdhury, Ke Jiang, Brian Kulis Department of Computer Science and Engineering The Ohio State University [email protected], {jiangk,kulis}@cse.ohio-state.edu Abstract Small-variance asymptotics provide an emerging technique for obtaining scalable combinatorial algorithms from rich probabilistic models. We present a smallvariance asymptotic analysis of the Hidden Markov Model and its infinite-state Bayesian nonparametric extension. Starting with the standard HMM, we first derive a ?hard? inference algorithm analogous to k-means that arises when particular variances in the model tend to zero. This analysis is then extended to the Bayesian nonparametric case, yielding a simple, scalable, and flexible algorithm for discrete-state sequence data with a non-fixed number of states. We also derive the corresponding combinatorial objective functions arising from our analysis, which involve a k-means-like term along with penalties based on state transitions and the number of states. A key property of such algorithms is that? particularly in the nonparametric setting?standard probabilistic inference algorithms lack scalability and are heavily dependent on good initialization. A number of results on synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework. 1 Introduction Inference in large-scale probabilistic models remains a challenge, particularly for modern ?big data? problems. While graphical models are undisputedly important as a way to build rich probability distributions, existing sampling-based and variational inference techniques still leave some applications out of reach. A recent thread of research has considered small-variance asymptotics of latent-variable models as a way to capture the benefits of rich graphical models while also providing a framework for designing more scalable combinatorial optimization algorithms. Such models are often motivated by the well-known connection between mixtures of Gaussians and k-means: as the variances of the Gaussians tend to zero, the mixture of Gaussians model approaches k-means, both in terms of objectives and algorithms. This approach has recently been extended beyond the standard Gaussian mixture in various ways?to Dirichlet process mixtures and hierarchical Dirichlet processes [8], to non-Gaussian observations in the nonparametric setting [7], and to feature learning via the Beta process [5]. The small-variance analysis for each of these models yields simple algorithms that feature many of the benefits of the probabilistic models but with increased scalability. In essence, small-variance asymptotics provides a link connecting some probabilistic graphical models with non-probabilistic combinatorial counterparts. Thus far, small-variance asymptotics has been applied only to fairly simple latent-variable models. In particular, to our knowledge there has been no such analysis for sequential data models such as the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) nor its nonparametric counterpart, the infinite-state HMM (iHMM). HMMs are one of the most widely used probabilistic models for discrete sequence data, with diverse applications including DNA sequence analysis, natural language processing and speech recognition [4]. The HMMs consist of a discrete hidden state sequence that evolves according 1 to Markov assumptions, along with independent observations at each time step depending on the hidden state. The learning problem is to estimate the model given only the observation data. To develop scalable algorithms for sequential data, we begin by applying small-variance analysis to the standard parametric HMM. In the small-variance limit, we obtain a penalized k-means problem where the penalties capture the state transitions. Further, a special case of the resulting model yields segmental k-means [9]. For the nonparametric model we obtain an objective that effectively combines the asymptotics from the parametric HMM with the asymptotics for the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process [8]. We obtain a k-means-like objective with three penalties: one for state transitions, one for the number of reachable states out of each state, and one for the number of total states. The key aspect of our resulting formulation is that, unlike the standard sampler for the infinite-state HMM, dynamic programming can be used. In particular, we describe a simple algorithm that monotonically decreases the underlying objective function. Finally, we present results comparing our non-probabilistic algorithms to their probabilistic counterparts, on a number of real and synthetic data sets. Related Work. In the parametric setting (i.e., the standard HMM), several algorithms exist for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, such as the Baum-Welch algorithm (a special instance of the EM algorithm) and the segmental k-means algorithm [9]. Infinite-state HMMs [3, 12] are nonparametric Bayesian extensions of the finite HMMs where hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) priors are used to allow for an unspecified number of states. Exact inference in this model is intractable, so one typically resorts to sampling methods. The standard Gibbs sampling methods [12] are notoriously slow to converge and cannot exploit the forward-backward structure of the HMMs. [6] presents a Beam sampling method which bypasses this obstacle via slice sampling, where only a finite number of hidden states are considered in each iteration. However, this approach is still computationally intensive since it works in the non-collapsed space. Thus infinite-state HMMs, while desirable from a modeling perspective, have been limited by their inability to scale to large data sets?this is precisely the situation in which small-variance asymptotics has the potential to be beneficial. Connections between the mixture of Gaussians model and k-means are widely known. Beyond the references discussed earlier, we note that a similar connection relating probabilistic PCA and standard PCA was discussed in [13, 10], as well as connections between support vector machines and a restricted Bayes optimal classifier in [14]. 2 Asymptotics of the finite-state HMM We begin, as a warm-up, with the simpler parametric (finite-state) HMM model, and show that small-variance asymptotics on the joint log likelihood yields a penalized k-means objective, and on the EM algorithm yields a generalized segmental k-means algorithm. The tools developed in this section will then be used for the more involved nonparametric model. 2.1 The Model The Hidden Markov Model assumes a hidden state sequence Z = {z1 , . . . , zN } drawn from a finite discrete state space {1, . . . , K}, coupled with the observation sequence X = {x1 , . . . , xN }. The resulting generative model defines a probability distribution over the hidden state sequence Z and the observation sequence X . Let T ? RK?K be the stationary transition probability matrix of the hidden state sequence with Ti. = ?i ? RK being a distribution over the latent states. For clarity of presentation, we will use a binary 1-of-K representation for the latent state assignments. That is, we will write the event of the latent state at time step t being k as ztk = 1 and ztl = 0 ?l = 1...K, l 6= k. Then the transition probabilities can be written as Tij = Pr(ztj = 1|zt?1,i = 1). The initial state distribution is ?0 ? RK . The Markov structure dictates that zt ? Mult(?zt?1 ), and the observations follow xt ? ?(?zt ). The observation density ? is assumed invariant, and the Markov structure induces conditional independence of the observations given the latent states. In the following, we present the asymptotic treament for the finite HMM with Gaussian emission densities Pr(xt |ztk = 1) = N (xt |?k , ? 2 Id ). Here ?zt = ?k , since the parameter space ? contains only the emission means. Generalization to exponential family emission densities is straightforward[7]. At a high level, the connection we seek to establish can be proven in two ways. The first approach is to examine small-variance asymptotics directly on the the joint probability distribution of the HMM, as done in [5] for clustering and feature learning problems. We will primarily 2 focus on this approach, since our ideas can be more clearly expressed by this technique, and it is independent of any inference algorithm. The other approach is to analyze the behavior of the EM algorithm as the variance goes to zero. We will briefly discuss this approach as well, but for further details the interested reader can consult the supplementary material. 2.1.1 Exponential Family Transitions Our main analysis relies on appropriate manipulation of the transition probabilities, where we will use the bijection between exponential families and Bregman divergences established in [2]. Since the conditional distribution of the latent state at any time step is multinomial in the transition probabilities from the previous state, we use the aforementioned bijection to refactor the transition probabilities in the joint distribution of the HMM into a form than utilizes Bregman divergences. This, with an appropriate scaling to enable small-variance asymptotics as mentioned in [7], allows us to combine the emission and transition distributions into a simple objective function. We denote Tjk = Pr(ztk = 1|zt?1,j = 1) as before, and the multinomial distribution for the latent state at time step t as Pr(zt |zt?1,j = 1) = K Y ztk Tjk . (1) k=1 In order to apply small-variance asymptotics, we must allow the variance in the transition probabilities to go to zero in a reasonable way. Following the treatment in [2], we can rewrite this distribution in a suitable exponential family notation, which we then express in the following equivalent form: Pr(zt |zt?1,j = 1) = exp(?d? (zt , mj ))b? (zt ), (2) PK where the Bregman divergence d? (zt , mj ) = k=1 ztk log (ztk /Tjk ) = KL(zt , mj ), mj = {Tjk }K k=1 and b? (zt ) = 1. See the supplementary notes for derivation details. The prime motivation for using this form is that we can appropriately scale the variance of the exponential family ? and distribution following Lemma 3.1 of [7]. In particular, if we introduce a new parameter ?, generalize the transition probabilities to be ? ? (zt , mj ))b ?(zt ), Pr(zt |zt?1,j = 1) = exp(??d ? ? then the mean of the distribution is the same in the scaled distribution (namely, mj ) where ?? = ??, while the variance is scaled. As ?? ? ?, the variance goes to zero. The next step is to link the emission and transition probabilities so that the variance is scaled appropriately in both. In particular, we will define ? = 1/2? 2 and then let ?? = ?? for some ?. The Gaussian emission densities can now be written as Pr(xt |ztk = 1) = exp(??kxt ? ?k k22 )f (?) and the transition probabilities as Pr(zt |zt?1,j = 1) = exp(???d? (zt , mj ))b??(zt ). See [7] for further details about the scaling operation. 2.1.2 Joint Probability Asymptotics We now have all the background development required to perform small-variance asymptotics on the HMM joint probability, and derive the segmental k-means algorithm. Our parameters of interest are the Z = [z1 , ..., zN ] vectors, the ? = [?1 , ..., ?K ] means, and the transition parameter matrix T . We can write down the joint likelihood by taking a product of all the probabilities in the model: p(X , Z) = p(z1 ) N Y p(zt |zt?1 ) t=2 N Y N (xt |?zt , ? 2 Id ), t=1 With some abuse of notation, let mzt?1 denote the mean transition vector given by the assignment zt?1 (that is, if zt?1,j = 1 then mzt?1 = mj ). The exp-family probabilities above allow us to rewrite this joint likelihood as " ! # N N X X 2 p(X , Z) ? exp ?? kxt ? ?zt k2 + ? KL(zt , mzt?1 ) + log p(z1 ) . (3) t=1 t=2 3 To obtain the corresponding non-probabilistic objective from small-variance asymptotics, we consider the MAP estimate obtained by maximizing the joint likelihood with respect to the parameters asymptotically as ? 2 goes to zero (? goes to ?). In our case, it is particularly simple given the joint likelihood above. The log-likelihood easily yields the following asymptotically: ! N N X X 2 max ? kxt ? ?zt k2 + ? KL(zt , mzt?1 ) (4) Z,?,T t=1 t=2 or equivalently, min Z,?,T N X kxt ? ?zt k22 +? t=1 N X ! KL(zt , mzt?1 ) . (5) t=2  K Note that, as mentioned above, mj = Tjk k=1 . We can view the above objective function as a ?penalized? k-means problem, where the penalties are given by the transitions from state to state. One possible strategy to minimize (5) would be to iteratively minimize with respect to each of the individual parameters (Z, ?, T ) keeping the other two fixed. When fixing ? and T , and taking ? = 1, the solution for Z in (4) is identical to the MAP update on the latent variables Z for this model, as in a standard HMM. When ? 6= 1, a simple generalization of the standard forward-backward routine can be used to find the optimal assignments. Keeping Z and T fixed, the update on ?k is easily seen to be the equiweighted average of the data points which have been assigned to latent state k in the MAP estimate (it is the same minimization as in k-means for updating cluster means). Finally, since K P KL(zt , mj ) ? ? log Tjk , minimization with respect to T simply yields the empirical transition k=1 from state j to k probabilities, that is Tjk,new = ##of oftransitions transitions from state j , both counts from the MAP path computed during maximization w.r.t Z. We observe that, when ? = 1, the iterative minimization algorithm to solve (5) is exactly the segmental k-means algorithm, also known as Viterbi re-estimation. 2.1.3 EM algorithm asymptotics We can reach the same algorithm alternatively by writing down the steps of the EM algorithm and exploring the small-variance limit of these steps, analogous to the approach of [8] for a Dirichlet process mixture. Given space limitations (and the fact that the resulting algorithm is identical, as expected), a more detailed discussion can be found in the supplementary material. 3 Asymptotics of the Infinite Hidden Markov Model We now tackle the more complex nonparametric model. We will derive the objective function directly as in the parametric case but, unlike the parametric version, we will not apply asymptotics to the existing sampler algorithms. Instead, we will present a new algorithm to optimize our derived objective function. By deriving an algorithm directly, we ensure that our method takes advantage of dynamic programming, unlike the standard sampler. 3.1 The Model The iHMM, also known as the HDP-HMM [3, 12] is a nonparametric Bayesian extension to the HMM, where an HDP prior is used to allow for an unspecified number of states. The HDP is a set of Dirichlet Processes (DPs) with a shared base distribution, that are themselves drawn from a Dirichlet process [12]. Formally, we can write Gk ? DP(?, G0 ) with a shared base distribution G0 ? DP(?, H), where H is the global base distribution that permits sharing of probability mass across Gk s. ? and ? are the concentration parameters for the Gk and G0 measures, respectively. To apply HDPs to sequential data, the iHMM can be formulated as follows: ? ? GEM(?), ?k |? ? DP(?, ?), zt |zt?1 ? Mult(?zt?1 ), ?k ? H, xt ? ?(?zt ). For a full Bayesian treatment, Gamma priors are placed on the concentration parameters (though we will not employ such priors in our asymptotic analysis). 4 Following the discussion in the parametric case, our goal is to write down the full joint likelihood in the above model. As discussed in [12], the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process yields assignments that follow the Chinese Restaurant Franchise (CRF), and thus the iHMM model additionally incorporates a term in the joint likelihood involving the prior probability of a set of state assignments arising from the CRF. Suppose an assignment of observations to states has K different states (i.e., number of restaurants in the franchise), si is the number of states that can be reached from state i in one step (i.e., number of tables in each restaurant i), and ni is the number observations in each state i (i.e., number of customers in each restaurant). Then the probability of an assignment in the HDP can be written as (after integrating out mixture weights [1, 11], and if we only consider terms that would not be constants after we do the asymptotic analysis [5]): p(Z|?, ?, ?) ? ? K?1 K Y ?(? + 1) ?(? + 1) . ?sk ?1 PK ?(? + ni ) ?(? + k=1 sk ) k=1 For the likelihood, we follow the same assumption as in the parametric case: the observation densities are Gaussians with a shared covariance matrix ? 2 Id . Further, the means are drawn independently from the prior N (0, ?2 Id ), where ?2 > 0 (this is needed, as the model is fully Bayesian now). QK Therefore, p(?1:K ) = k=1 N (?k |0, ?2 Id ), and p(X , Z) ? p(Z|?, ?, ?) ? p(z1 ) N Y p(zt |zt?1 ) ? t=2 N Y N (xt |?zt , ? 2 Id ) ? p(?1:K ). t=1 Now, we can perform the small-variance analysis on the generative model. In order to retain the impact of the hyperparameters ? and ? in the asymptotics, we can choose some constants ?1 , ?2 > 0 such that ? = exp(??1 ?), ? = exp(??2 ?), 2 where ? = 1/(2? ) as before. Note that, in this way, we have ? ? 0 and ? ? 0 when ? ? ?. We now can consider the objective function for maximizing the generative probability as we let ? ? ?. This gives p(X , Z) ? ! N N K h X X X 2 exp ? ? kxt ? ?zt k + ? KL(zt , mzt?1 ) + ?1 (sk ? 1) + ?2 (K ? 1) t=1 t=2 k=1 i + log(p(z1 )) . (6) Therefore, maximizing the generative probability is asymptotically equivalent to the following optimization problem: min K,Z,?,T N X t=1 kxt ? ?zt k2 + ? N X KL(zt , mzt?1 ) + ?1 t=2 K X (sk ? 1) + ?2 (K ? 1). (7) k=1 In words, this objective seeks to minimize a penalized k-means objective, with three penalties. The first is the same as in the parametric case?a penalty based on the transitions from state to state. The second penalty penalizes the number of transitions out of each state, and the third penalty penalizes the total number of states. Note this is similar to the objective function derived in [8] for the HDP, but here there is no dependence on any particular samplers. This can also be considered as MAP estimation of the parameters, since p(Z, ?|X ) ? p(X |Z)p(Z)p(?). 3.2 Algorithm The algorithm presented in [8] could be almost directly applied to (7) but it neglects the sequential characteristics of the model. Instead, we present a new algorithm to directly optimize (7). We follow the alternating minimization framework as in the parametric case, with some slight tweaks. Specifically, given observations {x1 , . . . , xN }, ?, ?1 , ?2 , our high-level algorithm proceeds as follows: (1) Initialization: initialize with one hidden state. The parameters are therefore K = 1, ?1 = PN 1 i=1 xi , T = 1. N (2) Perform a forward-backward step (via approximate dynamic programming) to update Z. 5 (3) Update K, ?, T . (4) For each state i, (i = 1, . . . , K), check if the set of observations to any state j that are reached by transitioning out of i can form a new dedicated hidden state and lower the objective function in the process. If there are several such moves, choose the one with the maximum improvement in objective function. (5) Update K, ?, T . (6) Iterate steps (2)-(5) until convergence. There are two key changes to the algorithm beyond the standard parametric case. In the forwardbackward routine (step 2), we compute the usual K ? N matrix ?, where ?(c, t) represents the minimum cost over paths of length t from the beginning of the sequence and that reach state c at time step t. We use the term ?cost? to refer to the sum of the distances of points to state means, as well as the additive penalties incurred. However, to see why it is difficult to compute the exact value of ? in the nonparametric case, suppose we have computed the minimum cost of paths up to step t ? 1 and we would like to compute the values of ? for step t. The cost of a path that ends in state c is obtained by examining, for all states i, the cost of a path that ends at i at step t ? 1 and then transitions to state c at step t. Thus, we must consider the transition from i to c. If there are existing transitions from state i to state c, then we proceed as in a standard forward-backward algorithm. However, we are also interested in two other cases?one where there are no existing transitions from i to c but we consider this transition along with a penalty ?1 , and another where an entirely new state is formed and we pay a penalty ?2 . In the first case, the standard forwardbackward routine faces an immediate problem, since when we try to compute the cost of the path given by ?(c, t), the cost will be infinite as there is a ? log(0) term from the transition probability. We must therefore alter the forward-backward routine, or there will never be new states created nor transitions to an existing state which previously had no transitions. The main idea is to derive and use bounds on how much the transition matrix can change under the above scenarios. As long as we can show that the values we obtain for ? are upper bounds, then we can show that the objective function will decrease after the forward-backward routine, as the existing sequence of states is also a valid path (with no new incurred penalties). The second change (step 4) is that we adopt a ?local move? analogous to that described for the hard HDP in [8]. This step determines if the objective will decrease if we create a new global state in a certain fashion; in particular, for each existing state j, we compute the change in objective that occurs when data points that transition from j to some state k are given their own new global state. By construction this step decreases the objective. Due to space constraints, full details of the algorithm, along with a local convergence proof, are provided in the supplementary material (section B). 4 Experiments We conclude with a brief set of experiments designed to highlight the benefits of our approach. Namely, we will show that our methods have benefits over the existing parametric and nonparametric HMM algorithms in terms of speed and accuracy. Synthetic Data. First we compare our nonparametric algorithm with the Beam Sampler for the iHMM1 . A sequence of length 3000 was generated over a varying number of hidden states with the all-zeros transition matrix except that Ti,i+1 = 0.8 and Ti,i+2 = 0.2 (when i + 1 > K, the total number of states, we choose j = i + 1 mod K and let Ti,j = 0.8, and similarly for i + 2). Observations were sampled from symmetric Gaussian distributions with means of {3, 6, . . . , 3K} and a variance of 0.9. The data described above were trained using our nonparametric algorithm (asymp-iHMM) and the Beam sampler. For our nonparametric algorithm, we performed a grid search over all three parameters and selected the parameters using a heuristic (see the supplementary material for a discussion of this heuristic). For the Beam sampling algorithm, we used the following hyperparameter settings: gamma hyperpriors (4, 1) for ?, (3, 6) for ?, and a zero mean normal distribution for the base H with the variance equal to 10% of the empirical variance of the dataset. We also normalized the sequence to have zero mean. The number of selected samples was varied among 10, 100, and 1000 1 http://mloss.org/software/view/205/ 6 for different numbers of states, with 5 iterations between two samples. (Note: there are no burn-in iterations and all samplers are initialized with a randomly initialized 20-state labeling.) Training Time NMI Score 0.4 0.6 Log of the time 2 3 4 5 0.8 6 7 1.0 Training Accuracy 2 4 6 # of states 8 1 AsymIhmm Beam10 Beam100 Beam1000 0 0.0 0.2 AsymIhmm Beam10 Beam100 Beam1000 10 2 4 6 # of states 8 10 Figure 1: Our algorithm (asymp-iHMM) vs. the Beam Sampler on the synthetic Gaussian hidden Markov model data. (Left) The training accuracy; (Right) The training time on a log-scale. In Figure 1 (best viewed in color), the training accuracy and running time for the two algorithms are shown, respectively. The accuracy of the Beam sampler is given by the highest among all the samples selected. The accuracy is shown in terms of the normalized mutual information (NMI) score (in the range of [0,1]), since the sampler may output different number of states than the ground truth and NMI can handle this situation. We can see that, in all datasets, our algorithm performs better than the sampling method in terms of accuracy, but with running time similar to the sampler with only 10 samples. For these datasets, we also observe that the EM algorithm for the standard HMM (not reported in the figure) can easily output a smaller number of states than the ground truth, which yields a smaller NMI score. We also observed that the Beam sampler is highly sensitive to the initialization of hyperparameters. Putting flat priors over the hyperparameters can ameliorate the situation, but also substantially increases the number of samples required. Next we demonstrate the effect of the compensation parameter ? in the parametric asymptotic model, along with comparisons to the standard HMM. We will call the generalized segmental k-means of Section 2 the ?asymp-HMM? algorithm, shortened to ?AHMM? as appropriate. For this experiment, we used univariate Gaussians with means at 3, 6, and 10, and standard deviation of 2.9. In our ground-truth transition kernel, state i had an 80% prob. of transitioning to state i + 1, and 10% prob. of transitioning to each of the other states. 5000 datapoints were generated from this model. The first 40% of the data was used for training, and the remaining 60% for prediction. The means in both the standard HMM and the asymp-HMM were initialized by the centroids learned by k-means from the training data. The transition kernels were initialized randomly. Each algorithm was run 50 times; the averaged results are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 shows the effect of ? on accuracy as measured by NMI and scaled prediction error. We see the expected tradeoff: for small ?, the problem essentially reduces to standard kmeans, whereas for large ? the observations are essentially ignored. For ? = 1, corresponding to standard segmental k-means, we obtain results similar to the standard HMM, which obtains an NMI of .57 and error of 1.16. Thus, the parametric method offers some added flexibility via the new ? parameter. Financial time-series prediction. Our next ex- Figure 2: NMI and prediction error as a function periment illustrates the advantages of our algo- of the compensation parameter ? rithms in a financial prediction problem. The sequence consists of 3668 values of the Standard & Poor?s 500 index on consecutive trading days 7 Figure 3: Predicted values of the S&P 500 index from 12/29/1999 to 07/30/2012 returned by the asymp-HMM, asymp-iHMM and the standard HMM algorithms, with the true index values for that period (better in color); see text for details. from Jan 02, 1998 to July 30, 20122 . The index exhibited appreciable variability in this period, with both bull and bear runs. The goal here was to predict the index value on a test sequence of trading days, and compare the accuracies and runtimes of the algorithms. To prevent overfitting, we used a training window of length 500. This window size was empirically chosen to provide a balance between prediction accuracy and runtime. The algorithms were trained on the sequence from index i to i + 499, and then the i + 500-th value was predicted and compared with the actual recorded value at that point in the sequence. i ranged from 1 to 3168. As before, the mixture means were initialized with k-means and the transition kernels were given random initial values. For the asymp-HMM and the standard HMM, the number of latent states was empirically chosen to be 5. For the asymp-iHMM, we tune the parameters to get also 5 states on average. For predicting observation T + 1 given observations up to step T , we used the weighted average of the learned state means, weighted by the transition probabilities given by the state of the observation at time T . We ran the standard HMM along with both the parametric and non-parametric asymptotic algorithms on this data (the Beam sampler was too slow to run over this data, as each individual prediction took on the order of minutes). The values predicted from time step 501 to 3668 are plotted with the true index values in that time range in Figure 3. Both the parametric and non-parametric asymptotic algorithms perform noticably better than the standard HMM; they are able to better approximate the actual curve across all kinds of temporal fluctuations. Indeed, the difference is most stark in the areas of high-frequency oscillations. While the standard HMM returns an averaged-out prediction, our algorithms latch onto the underlying behavior almost immediately and return noticably more accurate predictions. Prediction accuracy has been measured using the mean absolute percentage (MAP) error, which is the mean of the absolute differences of the predicted and true values expressed as percentages of the true values. The MAP error for the HMM was 6.44%, that for the asymp-HMM was 3.16%, and that for the asymp-iHMM was 2.78%. This confirms our visual perception of the asymp-iHMM algorithm returning the best-fitted prediction in Figure 3. Additional Real-World Results. We also compared our methods on a well-log data set that was used for testing the Beam sampler. Due to space constraints, further discussion of these results is included in the supplementary material. 5 Conclusion This paper considered an asymptotic treatment of the HMM and iHMM. The goal was to obtain non-probabilistic formulations inspired by the HMM, in order to expand small-variance asymptotics to sequential models. We view our main contribution as a novel dynamic-programming-based algorithm for sequential data with a non-fixed number of states that is derived from the iHMM model. Acknowledgements This work was supported by NSF award IIS-1217433. 2 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SP500/downloaddata 8 References [1] C. E. Antoniak. Mixtures of Dirichlet processes with applications to Bayesian nonparametric problems. The Annals of Statistics, 2(6):1152?1174, 1974. [2] A. Banerjee, S. Merugu, I. S. Dhillon, and J. Ghosh. Clustering with Bregman divergences. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1705?1749, 2005. [3] M. J. Beal, Z. Ghahramani, and C. E. Rasmussen. The infinite hidden Markov model. In Advances in neural information processing systems, 2002. [4] C. M. Bishop. Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer, 2006. [5] T. Broderick, B. Kulis, and M. I. Jordan. MAD-Bayes: MAP-based asymptotic derivations from Bayes. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [6] J. V. Gael, Y. Saatci, Y. W. Teh, and Z. Ghahramani. Beam sampling for the infinite hidden Markov model. In Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2008. [7] K. Jiang, B. Kulis, and M. I. Jordan. Small-variance asymptotics for exponential family Dirichlet process mixture models. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2012. [8] B. Kulis and M. I. Jordan. Revisiting k-means: New algorithms via Bayesian nonparametrics. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [9] L. R. Rabiner. A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 77(2):257?286, 1989. [10] S. Roweis. EM algorithms for PCA and SPCA. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 1998. [11] E. Sudderth. Toward reliable Bayesian nonparametric learning. In NIPS Workshop on Bayesian Noparametric Models for Reliable Planning and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, 2012. [12] Y. W. Teh, M. I. Jordan, M. J. Beal, and D. M. Blei. Hierarchical Dirichlet processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(476):1566?1581, 2006. [13] M. E. Tipping and C. M. Bishop. Probabilistic principal component analysis. Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 21(3):611?622, 1999. [14] S. Tong and D. Koller. Restricted Bayes optimal classifiers. In Proc. 17th AAAI Conference, 2000. 9
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The Total Variation on Hypergraphs - Learning on Hypergraphs Revisited Matthias Hein, Simon Setzer, Leonardo Jost and Syama Sundar Rangapuram Department of Computer Science Saarland University Abstract Hypergraphs allow one to encode higher-order relationships in data and are thus a very flexible modeling tool. Current learning methods are either based on approximations of the hypergraphs via graphs or on tensor methods which are only applicable under special conditions. In this paper, we present a new learning framework on hypergraphs which fully uses the hypergraph structure. The key element is a family of regularization functionals based on the total variation on hypergraphs. 1 Introduction Graph-based learning is by now well established in machine learning and is the standard way to deal with data that encode pairwise relationships. Hypergraphs are a natural extension of graphs which allow to model also higher-order relations in data. It has been recognized in several application areas such as computer vision [1, 2], bioinformatics [3, 4] and information retrieval [5, 6] that such higher-order relations are available and help to improve the learning performance. Current approaches in hypergraph-based learning can be divided into two categories. The first one uses tensor methods for clustering as the higher-order extension of matrix (spectral) methods for graphs [7, 8, 9]. While tensor methods are mathematically quite appealing, they are limited to socalled k-uniform hypergraphs, that is, each hyperedge contains exactly k vertices. Thus, they are not able to model mixed higher-order relationships. The second main approach can deal with arbitrary hypergraphs [10, 11]. The basic idea of this line of work is to approximate the hypergraph via a standard weighted graph. In a second step, one then uses methods developed for graph-based clustering and semi-supervised learning. The two main ways of approximating the hypergraph by a standard graph are the clique and the star expansion which were compared in [12]. One can summarize [12] by stating that no approximation fully encodes the hypergraph structure. Earlier, [13] have proven that an exact representation of the hypergraph via a graph retaining its cut properties is impossible. In this paper, we overcome the limitations of both existing approaches. For both clustering and semisupervised learning the key element, either explicitly or implicitly, is the cut functional. Our aim is to directly work with the cut defined on the hypergraph. We discuss in detail the differences of the hypergraph cut and the cut induced by the clique and star expansion in Section 2.1. Then, in Section 2.2, we introduce the total variation on a hypergraph as the Lovasz extension of the hypergraph cut. Based on this, we propose a family of regularization functionals which interpolate between the total variation and a regularization functional enforcing smoother functions on the hypergraph corresponding to Laplacian-type regularization on graphs. They are the key for the semi-supervised learning method introduced in Section 3. In Section 4, we show in line of recent research [14, 15, 16, 17] that there exists a tight relaxation of the normalized hypergraph cut. In both learning problems, convex optimization problems have to be solved for which we derive scalable methods in Section 5. The main ingredients of these algorithms are proximal mappings for which we provide a novel algorithm and analyze its complexity. In the experimental section 6, we show that fully incorporating hypergraph structure is beneficial. All proofs are moved to the supplementary material. 1 2 The Total Variation on Hypergraphs A large class of graph-based algorithms in semi-supervised learning and clustering is based either explicitly or implicitly on the cut. Thus, we discuss first in Section 2.1 the hypergraph cut and the corresponding approximations.In Section 2.2, we introduce in analogy to graphs, the total variation on hypergraphs as the Lovasz extension of the hypergraph cut. 2.1 Hypergraphs, Graphs and Cuts Hypergraphs allow modeling relations which are not only pairwise as in graphs but involve multiple vertices. In this paper, we consider weighted undirected hypergraphs H = (V, E, w) where V is the vertex set with |V | = n and E the set of hyperedges with |E| = m. Each hyperedge e ? E corresponds to a subset of vertices, i.e., to an element of 2V . The vector w ? Rm contains for each hyperedge e its non-negative weight we . In the following, we use  the letter H also for the 1 if i ? e, . The degree incidence matrix H ? R|V |?|E| which is for i ? V and e ? E, Hi,e = 0 else. P of a vertexPi ? V is defined as di = e?E we Hi,e and the cardinality of an edge e can be written as |e| = j?V Hj,e . We would like to emphasize that we do not impose the restriction that the hypergraph is k-uniform, i.e., that each hyperedge contains exactly k vertices. The considered class of hypergraphs contains the set of undirected, weighted graphs which is equivalent to the set of 2-uniform hypergraphs. The motivation for the total variation on hypergraphs comes from the correspondence between the cut on a graph and the total variation functional. Thus, we recall the definition of the cut on weighted graphs G = (V, W ) with weight matrix W . Let C = V \C denote the complement of C in V . Then, for a partition (C, C), the cut is defined as X cutG (C, C) = wij . i,j : i?C,j?C This standard definition of the cut carries over naturally to a hypergraph H X cutH (C, C) = we . e?E: (1) e?C6=?, e?C6=? Thus, the cut functional on a hypergraph is just the sum of the weights of the hyperedges which have vertices both in C and C. It is not biased towards a particular way the hyperedge is cut, that is, how many vertices of the hyperedge are in C resp. C. This emphasizes that the vertices in a hyperedge belong together and we penalize every cut of a hyperedge with the same value. In order to handle hypergraphs with existing methods developed for graphs, the focus in previous works [11, 12] has been on transforming the hypergraph into a graph. In [11], they suggest using the clique expansion (CE), i.e., every hyperedge e ? H is replaced with a fully connected subgraph e where every edge in this subgraph has weight w |e| . This leads to the cut functional cutCE , X we (2) cutCE (C, C) := |e ? C| |e ? C|. e?E: e?C6=?, e?C6=? |e| Note that in contrast to the hypergraph cut (1), the value of cutCE depends on the way each hyperedge is cut since the term |e ? C| |e ? C| makes the weights dependent on the partition. In particular, the smallest weight is attained if only a single vertex is split off, whereas the largest weight is attained if the partition of the hyperedge is most balanced. In comparison to the hypergraph cut, this leads to a bias towards cuts that favor splitting off single vertices from a hyperedge which in our point of view is an undesired property for most applications. We illustrate this with an example in Figure 1, where the minimum hypergraph cut (cutH ) leads to a balanced partition, whereas the minimum clique expansion cut (cutCE ) not only cuts an additional hyperedge but is also unbalanced. This is due to its bias towards splitting off single nodes of a hyperedge. Another argument against the clique expansion is computational complexity. For large hyperedges the clique expansion leads to (almost) fully connected graphs which makes computations slow and is prohibitive for large hypergraphs. We omit the discussion of the star graph approximation of hypergraphs discussed in [12] as it is shown there that the star graph expansion is very similar to the clique expansion. Instead, we want to recall the result of Ihler et al. [13] which states that in general there exists no graph with the same vertex set V which has for every partition (C, C) the same cut value as the hypergraph cut. 2 Figure 1: Minimum hypergraph cut cutH vs. minimum cut of the clique expansion cutCE : For edge weights w1 = w4 = 10, w2 = w5 = 0.1 and w3 = 0.6 the minimum hypergraph cut is (C1 , C 1 ) which is perfectly balanced. Although cutting one hyperedge more and being unbalanced, (C2 , C 2 ) is the optimal cut for the clique expansion approximation. Finally, note that for weighted 3-uniform hypergraphs it is always possible to find a corresponding graph such that any cut of the graph is equal to the corresponding cut of the hypergraph. Proposition 2.1. Suppose H = (V, E, w) is a weighted 3-uniform hypergraph. Then, W ? R|V |?|V | defined as W = 21 Hdiag(w)H T defines the weight matrix of a graph G = (V, W ) where each cut of G has the same value as the corresponding hypergraph cut of H. 2.2 The Total Variation on Hypergraphs In this section, we define the total variation on hypergraphs. The key technical element is the Lovasz extension which extends a set function, seen as a mapping on 2V , to a function on R|V | . ? Definition 2.1. Let S? : 2V ? R be a set function with S(?) = 0. Let f ? R|V | , let V be ordered such that f1 ? f2 ? . . . ? fn and define Ci = {j ? V | j > i}. Then, the Lovasz extension S : R|V | ? R of S? is given by n n?1   X X ? i )(fi+1 ? fi ) + f1 S(V ? i?1 ) ? S(C ? i) = ? ). fi S(C S(C S(f ) = i=1 i=1 ? Note that for the characteristic function of a set C ? V , we have S(1C ) = S(C). It is well-known that the Lovasz extension S is a convex function if and only if S? is submodular [18]. For graphs G = (V, W ), the total variation on graphs Pnis defined as the Lovasz extension of the graph cut [18] given as T VG : R|V | ? R, TVG (f ) = 21 i,j=1 wij |fi ? fj |. Proposition 2.2. The total variation TVH : R|V | ? R on a hypergraph H = (V, E, w) defined as ? the Lovasz extension of the hypergraph cut, S(C) = cutH (C, C), is a convex function given by   X X we max |fi ? fj |. TVH (f ) = we max fi ? min fj = e?E i?e j?e e?E i,j?e Note that the total variation of a hypergraph cut reduces to the total variation on graphs if H is 2-uniform (standard graph). There is an interesting relation of the total variation on hypergraphs to sparsity inducing group norms. Namely, defining for each edge e ? E the difference operator |V |?|V | De : R|V | ? RP by (De f )ij = fi ? fj if i, j ? e and 0 otherwise, TVH can be written as, TVH (f ) = e?E we kDe f k? , which can be seen as inducing group sparse structure on the gradient level. The groups are the hyperedges and thus are typically overlapping. This could lead potentially to extensions of the elastic net on graphs to hypergraphs. It is known that using the total variation on graphs as a regularization functional in semi-supervised learning (SSL) leads to very spiky solutions for small numbers of labeled points. Thus, one would like to have regularization functionals enforcing more smoothness of the solutions. For graphs this is achieved by using the family of regularization functionals ?G,p : R|V | ? R, ?G,p (f ) = n 1 X wij |fi ? fj |p . 2 i,j=1 3 For p = 2 we get the regularization functional of the graph Laplacian which is the basis of a large class of methods on graphs. In analogy to graphs, we define a corresponding family on hypergraphs. Definition 2.2. The regularization functionals ?H,p : R|V | ? R for a hypergraph H = (V, E, w) are defined for p ? 1 as p X  ?H,p (f ) = we max fi ? min fj . i?e e?E j?e Lemma 2.1. The functionals ?H,p : R|V | ? R are convex. Note that ?H,1 (f ) = TVH (f ). If H is a graph and p ? 1, ?H,p reduces to the Laplacian regularization ?G,p . Note that for characteristic functions of sets, f = 1C , it holds ?H,p (1C ) = cutH (C, C). Thus, the difference between the hypergraph cut and its approximations such as clique and star expansion carries over to ?H,p and ?GCE ,p , respectively. 3 Semi-supervised Learning With the regularization functionals derived in the last section, we can immediately write down a formulation for two-class semi-supervised learning on hypergraphs similar to the well-known approaches of [19, 20]. Given the label set L we construct the vector Y ? Rn with Yi = 0 if i ? / L and Yi equal to the label in {?1, 1} if i ? L. We propose solving f ? = arg min f ?R|V | 1 2 kf ? Y k2 + ? ?H,p (f ), 2 (3) where ? > 0 is the regularization parameter. In Section 5, we discuss how this convex optimization problem can be solved efficiently for the case p = 1 and p = 2. Note, that other loss functions than the squared loss could be used. However, the regularizer aims at contracting the function and we use the label set {?1, 1} so that f ? ? [?1, 1]|V | . Hence, on the interval [?1, 1] the squared loss behaves very similar to other margin-based loss functions. In general, we recommend using p = 2 as it corresponds to Laplacian-type regularization for graphs which is known to work well. For graphs p = 1 is known to produce spiky solutions for small numbers of labeled points. This is due to the effect that cutting ?out? the labeled points leads to a much smaller cut than, e.g., producing a balanced partition. However, in the case where one has only a small number of hyperedges this effect is much smaller and we will see in the experiments that p = 1 also leads to reasonable solutions. 4 Balanced Hypergraph Cuts In Section 2.1, we discussed the difference between the hypergraph cut (1) and the graph cut of the clique expansion (2) of the hypergraph and gave a simple example in Figure 1 where these cuts yield quite different results. Clearly, this difference carries over to the famous normalized cut criterion introduced in [21, 22] for clustering of graphs with applications in image segmentation. For a hypergraph the ratio resp. normalized cut can be formulated as RCut(C, C) = cutH (C, C) , |C||C| NCut(C, C) = cutH (C, C) , vol(C) vol(C) which incorporate different balancing criteria. Note, that in contrast to the normalized cut for graphs the normalized hypergraph cut allows no relaxation into a linear eigenproblem (spectral relaxation). Thus, we follow a recent line of research [14, 15, 16, 17] where it has been shown that the standard spectral relaxation of the normalized cut used in spectral clustering [22] is loose and that a tight, in fact exact, relaxation can be formulated in terms of a nonlinear eigenproblem. Although nonlinear eigenproblems are non-convex, one can compute nonlinear eigenvectors quite efficiently at the price of loosing global optimality. However, it has been shown that the potentially non-optimal solutions of the exact relaxation, outperform in practice the globally optimal solution of the loose relaxation, often by large margin. In this section, we extend their approach to hypergraphs and consider general H (C,C) balanced hypergraph cuts Bcut(C, C) of the form, Bcut(C, C) = cutS(C) , where S? : 2V ? R+ ? ? ? For the normalized cut one has is a non-negative, symmetric set function (that is S(C) = S(C)). 4 ? ? S(C) = vol(C) vol(C) whereas for the Cheeger cut one has S(C) = min{vol C, vol C}. Other examples of balancing functions can be found in [16]. Our following result shows that the balanced hypergraph cut also has an exact relaxation into a continuous nonlinear eigenproblem [14]. Theorem 4.1. Let H = (V, E, w) be a finite, weighted hypergraph and S : R|V | ? R be the Lovasz extension of the symmetric, non-negative set function S? : 2V ? R. Then, it holds that  P fi ? min fj e?E we max cutH (C, C) i?e j?e min = min . |V | ? C?V S(f ) f ?R S(C) Further, let f ? R|V | and define Ct := {i ? V | fi > t}. Then,  P fi ? min fj e?E we max cutH (Ct , Ct ) i?e j?e ? min . ? t) t?R S(f ) S(C The last part of the theorem shows that ?optimal thresholding? (turning f ? RV into a partition) among all level sets of any f ? R|V | can only lead to a better or equal balanced hypergraph cut. H (f ) The question remains how to minimize the ratio Q(f ) = TV S(f ) . As discussed in [16], every Lovasz extension S can be written as a difference of convex positively 1-homogeneous functions1 S = S1 ? S2 . Moreover, as shown in Prop. 2.2 the total variation TVH is convex. Thus, we have to minimize a non-negative ratio of a convex and a difference of convex (d.c.) function. We employ the RatioDCA algorithm [16] shown in Algorithm 1. The main part is the convex inner problem. In Algorithm 1 RatioDCA ? Minimization of a non-negative ratio of 1-homogeneous d.c. functions R (f )?R (f ) 1: Objective: Q(f ) = S11 (f )?S22(f ) . Initialization: f 0 = random with f 0 = 1, ?0 = Q(f 0 ) 2: repeat k 3: s1 (f k ) ? ?S1 (f k), r2 (f k ) ? ?R2 (fk )  k+1 4: f = arg min R1 (u) ? u, r2 (f ) + ?k S2 (u) ? u, s1 (f k ) kuk2 ?1 ?k+1 = (R1 (f k+1 ) ? R2 (f k+1 ))/(S1 (f k+1 ) ? S2 (f k+1 )) |?k+1 ??k | 6: until < ?k 7: Output: eigenvalue ?k+1 and eigenvector f k+1 . 5: our case R1 = T VH , R2 = 0, and thus the inner problem reads  minkuk2 ?1 {TVH (u) + ?k S2 (u) ? u, s1 (f k ) }. (4) For simplicity we restrict ourselves to submodular balancing functions, in which case S is convex and thus S2 = 0. For the general case, see [16]. Note that the balancing functions of ratio/normalized cut and Cheeger cut are submodular. It turns out that the inner problem is very similar to the semisupervised learning formulation (3). The efficient solution of both problems is discussed next. 5 Algorithms for the Total Variation on Hypergraphs The problem (3) we want to solve for semi-supervised learning and the inner problem (4) of RatioDCA have a common structure. They are the sum of two convex functions: one of them is the novel regularizer ?H,p and the other is a data term denoted by G here, cf., Table 1. We propose solving these problems using a primal-dual algorithm, denoted by PDHG, which was proposed in [23, 24]. Its main idea is to iteratively solve for each convex term in the objective function a proximal problem. The proximal map proxg w.r.t. a mapping g : Rn ? R is defined by 1 proxg (? x) = arg min{ kx ? x ?k22 + g(x)}. 2 x?Rn 1 A function f : Rd ? R is positively 1-homogeneous if ?? > 0, f (?x) = ?f (x). 5 The key idea is that often proximal problems can be solved efficiently leading to fast convergence of the overall algorithm. We see in Table 1 that for both G the proximal problems have an explicit solution. However, note that smooth convex terms can also be directly exploited [25]. For ?H,p , we distinguish two cases, p = 1 and p = 2. Detailed descriptions of the algorithms can be found in the supplementary material. G(f ) = 12 kf ? Y k22 prox? G(f ) (? x) = 1 x 1+? (? G(f ) = ?hs1 (f k ), f i + ?k?k2 ?1 (f ) + ?Y ) prox? G(f ) (? x) = x ?+? s1 (f k ) max{1,k? x+? s1 (f k )k2 } Table 1: Data term and proximal map for SSL (3) (left) and the inner problem of RatioDCA (4) (right).The indicator function is defined as ?k?k2 ?1 (x) = 0, if kxk2 ? 1 and +? otherwise. PDHG algorithm for ?H,1 . Let me be the number of vertices in hyperedge e ? E. We write X ??H,1 (f ) = F (Kf ) := (F(e,1) (Ke f ) + F(e,2) (Ke f )), (5) e?E where the rows of the matrices Ke ? Rme ,n are the i-th standard unit vectors for i ? e and the functionals F(e,j) : Rme ? R are defined as F(e,1) (?(e,1) ) = ?we max(?(e,1) ), F(e,2) (?(e,2) ) = ??we min(?(e,2) ). In contrast to the function G, we need in the PDHG algorithm the proximal maps for the conjugate functions of F(e,j) . They are given by ? F(e,1) = ?S?we , ? F(e,2) = ??S?we , Pme me where S?we = {x ? Rme : . The solutions i=1 xi = ?we , xi ? 0} is the scaled simplex in R ? ? of the proximal problem for F(e,1) and F(e,1) are the orthogonal projections onto the simplexes e e written here as PS?w and P?S?w , respectively. These projections can be done in linear time [26]. e e With the proximal maps we have presented so far, the PDHG algorithm has the following form. Algorithm 2 PDHG for ?H,1 1: Initialization: f (0) = f?(0) = 0, ? ? [0, 1], ?, ? > 0 with ?? < 1/(2 maxi=1,...,n {ci }) 2: repeat 3: 4: ?(e,1) ? (k+1) (e,2) (k+1) (k+1) e = PS?w (?(e,1) e e = P?S?w (? e (k) + ?Ke f?(k) ), e ? E + ?Ke f?(k) ), e ? E (e,2) (k) 5: f = prox? G (f (k) ? ? e?E KeT (?(e,1) 6: f?(k+1) = f (k+1) + ?(f (k+1) ? f (k) ) 7: until relative duality gap <  8: Output: f (k+1) . P (k+1) + ?(e,2) (k+1) )) P The value ci = e?E Hi,e is the number of hyperedges the vertex i lies in. It is important to point out here that the algorithm decouples the problem in the sense that in every iteration we solve subproblems which treat the functionals G, F(e,1) , F(e,2) separately and thus can be solved efficiently. PDHG algorithm for ?H,2 . We define the matrices Ke as above. Moreover, we introduce for every hyperedge e ? E the functional Fe (?e ) = ?we (max(?e ) ? min(?e ))2 . (6) P Hence, we can write ?H,2 (f ) = e?E Fe (Ke f ). As we show in the supplementary material, the conjugate functions Fe? are not indicator functions and we thus solve the corresponding proximal problems via proximal problems for Fe . More specifically, we exploit the fact that prox?Fe? (? ?e ) = ? ? e ? prox ?1 Fe (? ?e ), (7) and use the following novel result concerning the proximal problem on the right-hand side of (7). 6 Prop. \ Dataset Number of classes |V | |E| P e?E |e| |E| of Clique Exp. Zoo 7 101 42 1717 10201 Mushrooms 2 8124 112 170604 65999376 Covertype (4,5) 2 12240 104 146880 143008092 Covertype (6,7) 2 37877 123 454522 1348219153 20Newsgroups 4 16242 100 65451 53284642 Table 2: Datasets used for SSL and clustering. Note that the clique expansion leads for all datasets to a graph which is close to being fully connected as all datasets contain large hyperedges. For covertype (6,7) the weight matrix needs over 10GB of memory, the original hypergraph only 4MB. Proposition 5.1. For any ? > 0 and any ? ? e ? Rme the proximal map 1 1 prox ?1 Fe (? ?e ) = arg min{ k?e ? ? ? e k22 + ?we (max(?e ) ? min(?e ))2 } ? ?e ?Rme 2 can be computed with O(me log me ) arithmetic operations. A corresponding algorithm which is new to the best of our knowledge is provided in the supplementary material. We note here that the complexity is due to the fact that we sort the input vector ? ?e. The PDHG algorithm for p = 2 is provided in the supplementary material. It has the same structure as Algorithm 2 with the only difference that we now solve (7) for every hyperedge. 6 Experiments The method of Zhou et al [11] seems to be the standard algorithm for clustering and SSL on hypergraphs. We compare to them on a selection of UCI datasets summarized in Table 2. Zoo, Mushrooms and 20Newsgroups2 have been used also in [11] and contain only categorical features. As in [11], a hyperedge of weight one is created by all data points which have the same value of a categorical feature. For covertype we quantize the numerical features into 10 bins of equal size. Two datasets are created each with two classes (4,5 and 6,7) of the original dataset. Semi-supervised Learning (SSL). In [11], they suggest using a regularizer induced by the normalized Laplacian LCE arising from the clique expansion ?1 ?1 LCE = I ? DCE2 HW 0 H T DCE2 , P we 0 |E|?|E| where DCE is a diagonal matrix with entries dEC (i) = is a e?E Hi,e |e| and W ? R 0 diagonal matrix with entries w (e) = we /|e|. The SSL problem can then be formulated as ? > 0, 2 arg minf ?R|V | {kf ? Y k2 + ? hf, LCE f i}. The advantage of this formulation is that the solution can be found via a linear system. However, as Table 2 indicates the obvious downside is that LCE is a potentially very dense matrix and thus one 2 3 needs in the worst P case |V | memory and O(|V | ) computations. This is in contrast to our method which needs 2 e?E |e| + |V | memory. For the largest example (covertype 6,7), where the clique expansion fails due to memory problems, our method takes 30-100s (depending on ?). We stop our method for all experiments when we achieve a relative duality gap of 10?6 . In the experiments we do 10 trials for different numbers of labeled points. The reg. parameter ? is chosen for both methods from the set 10?k , where k = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} via 5-fold cross validation. The resulting errors and standard deviations can be found in the following table(first row lists the no. of labeled points). Our SSL methods based on ?H,p , p = 1, 2 outperform consistently the clique expansion technique of Zhou et al [11] on all datasets except 20newsgroups3 . However, 20newsgroups is a very difficult dataset as only 10,267 out of the 16,242 data points are different which leads to a minimum possible error of 9.6%. A method based on pairwise interaction such as the clique expansion can better deal 2 This is a modified version by Sam Roweis of the original 20 newsgroups dataset available at http: //www.cs.nyu.edu/?roweis/data/20news_w100.mat. 3 Communications with the authors of [11] could not clarify the difference to their results on 20newsgroups 7 with such label noise as the large hyperedges for this dataset accumulate the label noise. On all other datasets we observe that incorporating hypergraph structure leads to much better results. As expected our squared TV functional (p = 2) outperforms slightly the total variation (p = 1) even though the difference is small. Thus, as ?H,2 reduces to the standard regularization based on the graph Laplacian, which is known to work well, we recommend ?H,2 for SSL on hypergraphs. Zoo Zhou et al. ?H,1 ?H,2 Mushr. Zhou et al. ?H,1 ?H,2 covert45 Zhou et al. ?H,1 ?H,2 covert67 ?H,1 ?H,2 20news Zhou et al. ?H,1 ?H,2 20 35.1 ? 17.2 2.9 ? 3.0 2.3 ? 1.9 25 30.3 ? 7.9 1.4 ? 2.2 1.5 ? 2.4 20 15.5 ? 12.8 19.5 ? 10.5 18.4 ? 7.4 20 18.9 ? 4.6 21.4 ? 0.9 20.7 ? 2.0 20 40.6 ? 8.9 25.2 ? 18.3 20 45.5 ? 7.5 65.7 ? 6.1 55.0 ? 4.8 40 10.9?4.4 10.8?3.7 9.8 ? 4.5 40 18.3?5.2 17.6?2.6 16.1 ? 4.1 40 6.4?10.4 4.3 ? 9.6 40 34.4 ? 3.1 61.4?6.1 48.0?6.0 30 40.7 ? 14.2 2.2 ? 2.1 2.9 ? 2.3 60 9.5 ? 2.7 7.4 ? 3.8 9.9 ? 5.5 60 17.2?6.7 12.6?4.3 10.9 ? 4.9 60 3.6 ? 3.2 2.1 ? 2.0 60 31.5 ? 1.4 53.2?5.7 45.0?5.9 35 29.7 ? 8.8 0.7 ? 1.0 0.9 ? 1.4 80 10.3?2.0 5.6 ? 1.9 6.4 ? 2.7 80 16.6?6.4 7.6 ? 3.5 5.9 ? 3.7 80 3.3 ? 2.5 2.2 ? 1.4 80 29.8 ? 4.0 46.2?3.7 40.3?3.0 40 32.9 ? 16.8 0.7 ? 1.5 0.8 ? 1.7 100 9.0 ? 4.5 5.7 ? 2.2 6.3 ? 2.5 100 17.6?5.2 6.2 ? 3.8 4.6 ? 3.4 100 1.8 ? 0.8 1.4 ? 1.1 100 27.0 ? 1.3 42.4?3.3 38.3?2.7 45 27.6 ? 10.8 0.9 ? 1.4 1.2 ? 1.8 120 8.8 ? 1.4 5.4 ? 2.4 4.5 ? 1.8 120 18.4?5.1 4.5 ? 3.6 3.3 ? 3.1 120 1.3 ? 0.9 1.0 ? 0.8 120 27.3 ? 1.5 40.9?3.2 38.1?2.6 50 25.3 ? 14.4 1.9 ? 3.0 1.6 ? 2.9 160 8.8 ? 2.3 4.9 ? 3.8 4.4 ? 2.1 160 19.2?4.0 2.6 ? 1.6 2.2 ? 1.8 160 0.9 ? 0.4 0.7 ? 0.4 160 25.7 ? 1.4 36.1?1.5 35.0?2.8 200 9.3 ? 1.0 5.6 ? 3.8 3.0 ? 0.6 200 20.4?2.9 1.5 ? 1.3 1.0 ? 1.1 200 1.2 ? 0.9 1.1 ? 0.8 200 25.0 ? 1.3 34.7?3.6 34.1?2.0 Test error and standard deviation of the SSL methods over 10 runs for varying number of labeled points. Clustering. We use the normalized hypergraph cut as clustering objective. For more than two clusters we recursively partition the hypergraph until the desired number of clusters is reached. For comparison we use the normalized spectral clustering approach based on the Laplacian LCE [11](clique expansion). The first part (first 6 columns) of the following table shows the clustering errors (majority vote on each cluster) of both methods as well as the normalized cuts achieved by these methods on the hypergraph and on the graph resulting from the clique expansion. Moreover, we show results (last 4 columns) which are obtained based on a kNN graph (unit weights) which is built based on the Hamming distance (note that we have categorical features) in order to check if the hypergraph modeling of the problem is actually useful compared to a standard similarity based graph construction. The number k is chosen as the smallest number for which the graph becomes connected and we compare results of normalized 1-spectral clustering [14] and the standard spectral clustering [22]. Note that the employed hypergraph construction has no free parameter. Dataset Mushrooms Zoo 20-newsgroup covertype (4,5) covertype (6,7) Clustering Error % Ours [11] 10.98 32.25 16.83 15.84 47.77 33.20 22.44 22.44 8.16 - Hypergraph Ncut Ours [11] 0.0011 0.0013 0.6739 0.6784 0.0176 0.0303 0.0018 0.0022 8.18e-4 - Graph(CE) Ncut Ours [11] 0.6991 0.7053 5.1315 5.1703 2.3846 1.8492 0.7400 0.6691 0.6882 - Clustering Error % [14] [22] 48.2 48.2 5.94 5.94 66.38 66.38 22.44 22.44 45.85 45.85 kNN-Graph Ncut [14] [22] 1e-4 1e-4 1.636 1.636 0.1031 0.1034 0.0152 0.02182 0.0041 0.0041 First, we observe that our approach optimizing the normalized hypergraph cut yields better or similar results in terms of clustering errors compared to the clique expansion (except for 20-newsgroup for the same reason given in the previous paragraph). The improvement is significant in case of Mushrooms while for Zoo our clustering error is slightly higher. However, we always achieve smaller normalized hypergraph cuts. Moreover, our method sometimes has even smaller cuts on the graphs resulting from the clique expansion, although it does not directly optimize this objective in contrast to [11]. Again, we could not run the method of [11] on covertype (6,7) since the weight matrix is very dense. Second, the comparison to a standard graph-based approach where the similarity structure is obtained using the Hamming distance on the categorical features shows that using hypergraph structure is indeed useful. Nevertheless, we think that there is room for improvement regarding the construction of the hypergraph which is a topic for future research. Acknowledgments M.H. would like to acknowledge support by the ERC Starting Grant NOLEPRO and L.J. acknowledges support by the DFG SPP-1324. 8 References [1] Y. Huang, Q. Liu, and D. Metaxas. Video object segmentation by hypergraph cut. In CVPR, pages 1738 ? 1745, 2009. [2] P. Ochs and T. Brox. Higher order motion models and spectral clustering. In CVPR, pages 614?621, 2012. [3] S. Klamt, U.-U. Haus, and F. Theis. Hypergraphs and cellular networks. PLoS Computational Biology, 5:e1000385, 2009. [4] Z. Tian, T. Hwang, and R. Kuang. A hypergraph-based learning algorithm for classifying gene expression and arraycgh data with prior knowledge. Bioinformatics, 25:2831?2838, 2009. [5] D. Gibson, J. Kleinberg, and P. Raghavan. Clustering categorical data: an approach based on dynamical systems. VLDB Journal, 8:222?236, 2000. [6] J. Bu, S. Tan, C. Chen, C. Wang, H. Wu, L. Zhang, and X. He. Music recommendation by unified hypergraph: Combining social media information and music content. In Proc. of the Int. Conf. on Multimedia (MM), pages 391?400, 2010. [7] A. Shashua, R. Zass, and T. Hazan. Multi-way clustering using super-symmetric non-negative tensor factorization. In ECCV, pages 595?608, 2006. [8] S. Rota Bulo and M. Pellilo. A game-theoretic approach to hypergraph clustering. In NIPS, pages 1571? 1579, 2009. [9] M. Leordeanu and C. Sminchisescu. Efficient hypergraph clustering. In AISTATS, pages 676?684, 2012. [10] S. Agarwal, J. Lim, L. Zelnik-Manor, P. Petrona, D. J. Kriegman, and S. Belongie. Beyond pairwise clustering. In CVPR, pages 838?845, 2005. [11] D. Zhou, J. Huang, and B. Sch?olkopf. Learning with hypergraphs: Clustering, classification, and embedding. In NIPS, pages 1601?1608, 2006. [12] S. Agarwal, K. Branson, and S. Belongie. Higher order learning with graphs. In ICML, pages 17?24, 2006. [13] E. Ihler, D. Wagner, and F. Wagner. Modeling hypergraphs by graphs with the same mincut properties. Information Processing Letters, 45:171?175, 1993. [14] M. Hein and T. B?uhler. An inverse power method for nonlinear eigenproblems with applications in 1spectral clustering and sparse PCA. In NIPS, pages 847?855, 2010. [15] A. Szlam and X. Bresson. Total variation and Cheeger cuts. In ICML, pages 1039?1046, 2010. [16] M. Hein and S. Setzer. Beyond spectral clustering - tight relaxations of balanced graph cuts. In NIPS, pages 2366?2374, 2011. [17] T. B?uhler, S. Rangapuram, S. Setzer, and M. Hein. Constrained fractional set programs and their application in local clustering and community detection. In ICML, pages 624?632, 2013. [18] F. Bach. Learning with submodular functions: A convex optimization perspective. CoRR, abs/1111.6453, 2011. [19] M. Belkin and P. Niyogi. Semi-supervised learning on manifolds. Machine Learning, 56:209?239, 2004. [20] D. Zhou, O. Bousquet, T. N. Lal, J. Weston, and B. Sch?olkopf. Learning with local and global consistency. In NIPS, volume 16, pages 321?328, 2004. [21] J. Shi and J. Malik. Normalized cuts and image segmentation. IEEE Trans. Patt. Anal. Mach. Intell., 22(8):888?905, 2000. [22] U. von Luxburg. A tutorial on spectral clustering. Statistics and Computing, 17:395?416, 2007. [23] E. Esser, X. Zhang, and T. F. Chan. A general framework for a class of first order primal-dual algorithms for convex optimization in imaging science. SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 3(4):1015?1046, 2010. [24] A. Chambolle and T. Pock. A first-order primal-dual algorithm for convex problems with applications to imaging. J. of Math. Imaging and Vision, 40:120?145, 2011. [25] L. Condat. A primaldual splitting method for convex optimization involving lipschitzian, proximable and linear composite terms. J. Optimization Theory and Applications, 158(2):460?479, 2013. [26] K. Kiwiel. On Linear-Time algorithms for the continuous quadratic knapsack problem. J. Opt. Theory Appl., 134(3):549?554, 2007. 9
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Using multiple samples to learn mixture models Jason Lee? Stanford University Stanford, USA [email protected] Ran Gilad-Bachrach Microsoft Research Redmond, USA [email protected] Rich Caruana Microsoft Research Redmond, USA [email protected] Abstract In the mixture models problem it is assumed that there are K distributions ?1 , . . . , ?K and one gets to observe a sample from a mixture of these distributions with unknown coefficients. The goal is to associate instances with their generating distributions, or to identify the parameters of the hidden distributions. In this work we make the assumption that we have access to several samples drawn from the same K underlying distributions, but with different mixing weights. As with topic modeling, having multiple samples is often a reasonable assumption. Instead of pooling the data into one sample, we prove that it is possible to use the differences between the samples to better recover the underlying structure. We present algorithms that recover the underlying structure under milder assumptions than the current state of art when either the dimensionality or the separation is high. The methods, when applied to topic modeling, allow generalization to words not present in the training data. 1 Introduction The mixture model has been studied extensively from several directions. In one setting it is assumed that there is a single sample, that is a single collection of instances, from which one has to recover the hidden information. A line of studies on clustering theory, starting from [5] has proposed to address this problem by finding a projection to a low dimensional space and solving the problem in this space. The goal of this projection is to reduce the dimension while preserving the distances, as much as possible, between the means of the underlying distributions. We will refer to this line as MM (Mixture Models). On the other end of the spectrum, Topic modeling (TM), [9, 3], assumes multiple samples (documents) that are mixtures, with different weights of the underlying distributions (topics) over words. Comparing the two lines presented above shows some similarities and some differences. Both models assume the same generative structure: a point (word) is generated by first choosing the distribution ?i using the mixing weights and then selecting a point (word) according to this distribution. The goal of both models is to recover information about the generative model (see [10] for more on that). However, there are some key differences: (a) In MM, there exists a single sample to learn from. In TM, each document is a mixture of the topics, but with different mixture weights. (b) In MM, the points are represented as feature vectors while in TM the data is represented as a word-document co-occurrence matrix. As a consequence, the model generated by TM cannot assign words that did not previously appear in any document to topics. ? Work done while the author was an intern at Microsoft Resaerch 1 (c) TM assumes high density of the samples, i.e., that the each word appears multiple times. However, if the topics were not discrete distributions, as is mostly the case in MM, each "word" (i.e., value) would typically appear either zero or one time, which makes the co-occurrence matrix useless. In this work we try to close the gap between MM and TM. Similar to TM, we assume that multiple samples are available. However, we assume that points (words) are presented as feature vectors and the hidden distributions may be continuous. This allows us to solve problems that are typically hard in the MM model with greater ease and generate models that generalize to points not in the training data which is something that TM cannot do. 1.1 Definitions and Notations We assume a mixture model in which there are K mixture components ?1 , . . . , ?K defined over the space X. These mixture components are probability measures over X. We assume that there are M mixture models (samples), each drawn with different mixture weights ?1 , . . . , ?M such that ?j = (?j1 , . . . , ?jK ) where all the weights are non-negative and sum to 1. Therefore, we have M different probability measures D1 , . .P . , DM defined over X such that for a measurable set A and j = 1, . . . , M we have Dj (A) = i ?ji ?i (A). We will denote by ?min the minimal value of ?ji . In the first part of this work, we will provide an algorithm that given samples S1 , . . . , SM from the mixtures D1 , . . . , DM finds a low-dimensional embedding that preserves the distances between the means of each mixture. In the second part of this work we will assume that the mixture components have disjoint supports. Hence we will assume that X = ?j Cj such that the Cj ?s are disjoint and for every j, ?j (Cj ) = 1. Given samples S1 , . . . , SM , we will provide an algorithm that finds the supports of the underlying distributions, and thus clusters the samples. 1.2 Examples Before we dive further in the discussion of our methods and how they compare to prior art, we would like to point out that the model we assume is realistic in many cases. Consider the following example: assume that one would like to cluster medical records to identify subtypes of diseases (e.g., different types of heart disease). In the classical clustering setting (MM), one would take a sample of patients and try to divide them based on some similarity criteria into groups. However, in many cases, one has access to data from different hospitals in different geographical locations. The communities being served by the different hospitals may be different in socioeconomic status, demographics, genetic backgrounds, and exposure to climate and environmental hazards. Therefore, different disease sub-types are likely to appear in different ratios in the different hospital. However, if patients in two hospitals acquired the same sub-type of a disease, parts of their medical records will be similar. Another example is object classification in images. Given an image, one may break it to patches, say of size 10x10 pixels. These patches may have different distributions based on the object in that part of the image. Therefore, patches from images taken at different locations will have different representation of the underlying distributions. Moreover, patches from the center of the frame are more likely to contain parts of faces than patches from the perimeter of the picture. At the same time, patches from the bottom of the picture are more likely to be of grass than patches from the top of the picture. In the first part of this work we discuss the problem of identifying the mixture component from multiple samples when the means of the different components differ and variances are bounded. We focus on the problem of finding a low dimensional embedding of the data that preserves the distances between the means since the problem of finding the mixtures in a low dimensional space has already been address (see, for example [10]). Next, we address a different case in which we assume that the support of the hidden distributions is disjoint. We show that in this case we can identify the supports of each distribution. Finally we demonstrate our approaches on toy problems. The proofs of the theorems and lemmas 2 appear in the appendix. Table 1 summarizes the applicability of the algorithms presented here to the different scenarios. 1.3 Comparison to prior art There are two common approaches in the theoretical study of the MM model. The Disjoint Overlapping method of moments [6, 8, 1] allows the reclusters clusters covery of the model but requires exponenHigh DSC, MSP MSP tial running time and sample sizes. The dimension other approach, to which we compare our Low results, uses a two stage approach. In the DSC dimension first stage, the data is projected to a low dimensional space and in the second stage Table 1: Summary of the scenarios the MSP the association of points to clusters is recov(Multi Sample Projection) algorithm and the ered. Most of the results with this approach DSC (Double Sample Clustering) algorithm assume that the mixture components are are designed to address. Gaussians. Dasgupta [5], in a seminal paper, presented the first result in this line. He used random projections to project the points?to a space of a lower dimension. This work assumes that separation is at least ?(?max n). This result has been improved in a series of papers. Arora and Kannan [10] presented algorithms for finding the mixture components which are, in most cases, polynomial in n and K. Vempala and Wang [11]  1/4 1/4 n used PCA to reduce the required separation to ? ?max K log /?min . They use PCA to project on the first K principal components, however, they require the Gaussians to be spherical. Kanan, Salmasian and Vempala [7] used similar spectral methods but 2/3 were able to improve the results to require separation of only c?max K /?2min . Chaudhuri [4] have suggested using correlations and independence between features under the assumption that the means of the Gaussians differ on many features. They require sepa p ration of ? ?max K log(K?max log n/?min ) , however they assume that the Gaussians are axis aligned and that the distance between the centers of the Gaussians is spread across ? (K?max log n/?min ) coordinates. We present a method to project the problem into a space of dimension d? which is the dimension of the affine space spanned by the means of the distributions. We can find this projection and maintain the distances between the means to within a factor of 1 ? . The different factors, ?max , n and  will affect the sample size needed, but do not make the problem impossible. This can be used as a preprocessing step for any of the results discussed above. For example, with [5] yields an algorithm that requires a separation of only  combining ?  ?  ? ? ?max d ? ? ?max K . However, using [11] will result in separation requirement   p of ? ?max K log (K?max log d? /?min ) . There is also an improvement in terms of the value of ?max since we need only to control the variance in the affine space spanned by the means of the Gaussians and do not need to restrict the variance in orthogonal directions, as long as it is finite. Later we also show that we can work in a more generic setting where the distributions are not restricted to be Gaussians as long as the supports of the distributions are disjoint. While the disjoint assumption may seem too strict, we note that the results presented above make very similar assumptions. For example, even if the required separation is ?max K 1/2 then if we look at the Voronoi tessellation around the centers of the ?1 Gaussians, each cell will contain at least 1 ? (2?) K 3/4 exp (?K/2) of the mass of the Gaussian. Therefore, when K is large, the supports of the Gaussians are almost disjoint. 2 Projection for overlapping components In this section we present a method to use multiple samples to project high dimensional mixtures to a low dimensional space while keeping the means of the mixture components 3 Algorithm 1 Multi Sample Projection (MSP) Inputs: Samples S1 , . . . , Sm from mixtures D1 , . . . , Dm Outputs: Vectors v?1 , . . . , v?m?1 which span the projected space Algorithm: ?j be the mean of the sample Sj 1. For j = 1, . . . , m let E ?j ? E ?j+1 2. For j = 1, . . . , m ? 1 let v?j = E 3. return v?1 , . . . , v?m?1 well separated. The main idea behind the Multi Sample Projection (MSP) algorithm is simple. Let ?i be the mean of the i?th component ?i and let Ej be the mean of the j?th mixture Dj . From the nature of the mixture, Ej is in the convex-hull of ?1 , . . . , ?K and hence in the affine space spanned by them; this is demonstrated in Figure 1. Under mild assumptions, if we have sufficiently many mixtures, their means will span the affine space spanned by ?1 , . . . , ?K . Therefore, the MSP algorithm estimates the Ej ?s and projects to the affine space they span. The reason for selecting this sub-space is that by projecting on this space we maintain the distance between the means while reducing the dimension to at most K ? 1. The MSP algorithm is presented in Algorithm 1. In the following theorem we prove the main properties of the MSP algorithm. We will assume that X = Rn , the first two 2 denotes maximal variance of any of the components in moments of ?j are finite, and ?max any direction. The separation of the mixture components is minj6=j 0 k?j ? ?j 0 k. Finally, we will denote by d? the dimension of the affine space spanned by the ?j ?s. Hence, d? ? K ? 1. Theorem 1. MSP Analysis Let Ej = E [Dj ] and let vj = Ej ? Ej+1 . Let Nj = |Sj |. The following holds for MSP: 1. The computational complexity of the MSP algorithm is n where n is the original dimension of the problem.   ?j >  ? 2. For any  > 0, Pr supj Ej ? E 2 n?max 2 1 j Nj P PM j=1 Nj + 2n (m ? 1) . 3. Let ? ?i be the projection of ?i on the space spanned Pby v?1 , . . . , v?M ?1 and assume P that ?i, ?i ? span {vj }. Let ?ji be such that ?i = j ?ji vj and let A = maxi ?ji P 1 n? 2 then with probability of at least 1 ? max 2  j Nj   2 4n?max A2 X 1 0 0 Pr max |k? ? ? k ? k? ? ? ? ? k| >  ? . i i i i i,i0 2 Nj j The MSP analysis theorem shows that with large enough samples, the projection will maintain the separation between the centers of the distributions. Moreover, since this is a projection, the variance in any direction cannot increase. The value of A measures the complexity of the setting. If the mixing coefficients are very different in the different samples then A will be small. However, if the mixing coefficients are very similar, a larger sample is required. Nevertheless, the size of the sample needed is polynomial in Figure 1: The mean of the mixture compothe parameters of the problem. It is also nents will be in the convex hull of their means apparent that with large enough samples, demonstrated here by the red line. a good projection will be found, even with 4 large variances, high dimensions and close centroids. A nice property of the bounds presented here is that they assume only bounded first and second moments. Once a projection to a low dimensional space has been found, it is possible to find the clusters using approaches presented in section 1.3. However, the analysis of the MSP algorithm assumes that the means of E1 , . . . , EM span the affine space spanned by ?1 , . . . , ?K . Clearly, this implies that we require that m > d? . However, when m is much larger than d? , we might end-up with a projection on too large a space. This could easily ?1 , . . . , E ?m will be almost co-planar in the sense that there will be fixed since in this case, E ? be an affine space of dimension d that is very close to all these points and we can project onto this space. 3 Disjoint supports and the Double Sample Clustering (DSC) algorithm In this section we discuss the case where the underlying distributions have disjoint supports. In this case, we do not make any assumption about the distributions. For example, we do not require finite moments. However, as in the mixture of Gaussians case some sort of separation between the distributions is needed, this is the role of the disjoint supports. We will show that given two samples from mixtures with different mixture coefficients, it is possible to find the supports of the underlying distributions (clusters) by building a tree of classifiers such that each leaf represents a cluster. The tree is constructed in a greedy fashion. First we take the two samples, from the two distributions, and reweigh the examples such that the two samples will have the same cumulative weight. Next, we train a classifier to separate between the two samples. This classifier becomes the root of the tree. It also splits each of the samples into two sets. We take all the examples that the classifier assign to the label +1(?1), reweigh them and train another classifier to separate between the two samples. We keep going in the same fashion until we can no longer find a classifier that splits the data significantly better than random. To understand why this algorithm works it is easier to look first at the case where the mixture distributions are known. If D1 and D2 are known, we can define the L1 distance between them as L1 (D1 , D2 ) = supA |D1 (A) ?D2 (A)|.1 It turns out that the supremum is attained by a set A such that for any i, ?i (A) is either zero or one. Therefore, any inner node in the tree splits the region without breaking clusters. This process proceeds until all the points associated with a leaf are from the same cluster in which case, no classifier can distinguish between the classes. When working with samples, we have to tolerate some error and prevent overfitting. One way to see that is to look at the problem of approximating the L1 distance between D1 and D 2 A?S ? 1 = supA 1 ? A?S 2 . using samples S1 and S2 . One possible way to do that is to define L S1 S2 However, this estimate is almost surely going to be 1 if the underlying distributions are absolutely continuous. Therefore, one has to restrict the class from which A can be selected to a class of VC dimension small enough compared to the sizes of the samples. We claim that asymptotically, as the sizes of the samples increase, one can increase the complexity of the class until the clusters can be separated. Before we proceed, we recall a result of [2] that shows the relation between classification and the L1 distance. We will abuse the notation and treat A both as a subset and as a classifier. If we mix D1 and D2 with equal weights then err (A) = D1 (X \ A) + D2 (A) = 1 ? D1 (A) + D2 (A) = 1 ? (D1 (A) ? D2 (A)) . Therefore, minimizing the error is equivalent to maximizing the L1 distance. 1 the supremum is over all the measurable sets. 5 Algorithm 2 Double Sample Clustering (DSC) Inputs: ? Samples S1 , S2 ? A binary learning algorithm L that given samples S1 , S2 with weights w1 , w2 finds a classifier h and an estimator e of the error of h. ? A threshold ? > 0. Outputs: ? A tree of classifiers Algorithm: 1. Let w1 = 1 and w2 = |S1 |/|S2 | 2. Apply L to S1 & S2 with weights w1 & w2 to get the classifier h and estimator e. 1 2 ? ?, 3. If e ? (a) return a tree with a single leaf. 4. else (a) For j = 1, 2, let Sj+ = {x ? Sj s.t. h (x) > 0} (b) For j = 1, 2, let Sj? = {x ? Sj s.t. h (x) < 0} (c) Let T + be the tree returned by the DSC algorithm applied to S1+ and S2+ (d) Let T ? be the tree returned by the DSC algorithm applied to S1? and S2? (e) return a tree in which c is at the root node and T ? is its left subtree and T + is its right subtree The key observation for the DSC algorithm is that if ?1i 6= ?2i , then a set A that maximizes the L1 distance between D1 and D2 is aligned with cluster boundaries (up to a measure zero). Furthermore, A contains all the clusters for which ?1i > ?2i and does not contain all the clusters for which ?1i < ?2i . Hence, if we split the space to A and A? we have few clusters in each side. By applying the same trick recursively in each side we keep on bisecting the space according to cluster boundaries until subspaces that contain only a single cluster remain. These sub-spaces cannot be further separated and hence the algorithm will stop. Figure 2 demonstrates this idea. The following lemma states this argument mathematically: P Figure 2: Demonstration of the DSC algoLemma 1. If Dj = i ?ji ?i then rithm. Assume that ?1 = (0.4, 0.3, 0.3) for 1. P L1 (D1 , D2 ) ? the orange, 2green and blue regions respec tively and ? = (0.5, 0.1, 0.4). The green re1 2 i max ?i ? ?i , 0 . gion maximizes the L1 distance and therefore 2. If A? = ?i:?1i >?2i Ci then D1 (A? ) ? will be separated from the blue and orange.  P Conditioned on these two regions, the mixture D2 (A? ) = i max ?1i ? ?2i , 0 . coefficients are ?1orange, blue = (4/7, 3/7) and 3. If ?i, ?1i 6= ?2i and A is such that ?2orange, blue = (5/9, 4/9). The region that D1 (A)?D2 (A) = L1 (D1 , D2 ) then maximized this conditional L is the orange 1 ?i, ?i (A?A? ) = 0. regions that will be separated from the blue. We conclude from Lemma 1 that if D1 and D2 were explicitly known and one could have found a classifier that best separates between the distributions, that classifier would not break clusters as long as the mixing coefficients 6 are not identical. In order for this to hold when the separation is applied recursively in the DSC algorithm it suffices to have that for every I ? [1, . . . , K] if |I| > 1 and i ? I then ?1i 1 i0 ?I ?i0 P 6= P ?2i i0 ?I ?2i0 to guarantee that at any stage of the algorithm clusters will not be split by the classifier (but may be sections of measure zero). This is also sufficient to guarantee that the leaves will contain single clusters. In the case where data is provided through a finite sample then some book-keeping is needed. However, the analysis follows the same path. We show that with samples large enough, clusters are only minimally broken. For this to hold we require that the learning algorithm L separates the clusters according to this definition: Definition 1. For I ? [1, . . . , K] let cI : X 7? {?1} be such that cI (x) = 1 if x ? ?i?I Ci and cI (x) = ?1 otherwise. A learning algorithm L separates C1 , . . . , CK if for every , ? > 0 there exists N such that for every n > N and every measure ? over X ?{?1} with probability 1 ? ? over samples from ? n : 1. The algorithm L returns an hypothesis h : X 7? {?1} and an error estimator e ? [0, 1] such that |Prx,y?? [h (x) 6= y] ? e| ?  2. h is such that ?I, Pr [h (x) 6= y] < Pr [cI (x) 6= y] +  . x,y?? x,y?? Before we introduce the main statement, we define what it means for a tree to cluster the mixture components: Definition 2. A clustering tree is a tree in which in each internal node is a classifier and the points that end in a certain leaf are considered a cluster. A clustering tree -clusters the mixture coefficient ?1 , . . . , ?K if for every i ? 1, . . . , K there exists a leaf in the tree such that the cluster L ? X associated with this leaf is such that ?i (L) ? 1 ?  and ?i0 (L) <  for every i0 6= i. To be able to find a clustering tree, the two mixtures have to be different. The following definition captures the gap which is the amount of difference between the mixtures. Definition 3. Let ?1 and ?2 be two mixture vectors. The gap, g, between them is   ?1i ?2i P P g = min . 1 ? 2 : I ? [1, . . . , K] and |I| > 1 i0 ?I ?i0 i0 ?I ?i0 We say that ? is b bounded away from zero if b ? mini ?i . Theorem 2. Assume that L separates ?1 , . . . , ?K , there is a gap g > 0 between ?1 and ?2 and both ?1 and ?2 are bounded away from zero by b > 0. For every ? , ? ? > 0 there exists N = N (? , ? ? , g, b, K) such that given two random samples of sizes N < n1 , n2 from the two mixtures, with probability of at least 1 ? ? ? the DSC algorithm will return a clustering tree which ? -clusters ?1 , . . . , ?K when applied with the threshold ? = g/8. 4 Empirical evidence We conducted several experiments with synthetic data to compare different methods when clustering in high dimensional spaces. The synthetic data was generated from three Gaussians with centers at points (0, 0) , (3, 0) and (?3, +3). On top of that, we added additional dimensions with normally distributed noise. In the first experiment we used unit variance for all dimensions. In the second experiment we skewed the distribution so that the variance in the other features is 5. Two sets of mixing coefficients for the three Gaussians were chosen at random 100 times by selecting three uniform values from [0, 1] and normalizing them to sum to 1. We generated 7 Random Projection K-Means Maximal Variance MSP DSC 67 62 57 52 50 48 46 44 47 42 42 40 37 38 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0 (a) Accuracy with spherical Gaussians 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 (b) Average accuracy with skewed Gaussians Figure 3: Comparison the different algorithms: The dimension of the problem is presented in the X axis and the accuracy on the Y axis. two samples with 80 examples each from the two mixing coefficients. The DSC and MSP algorithm received these two samples as inputs while the reference algorithms, which are not designed to use multiple samples, received the combined set of 160 points as input. We ran 100 trials. In each trial, each of the algorithms finds 3 Gaussians. We then measure the percentage of the points associated with the true originating Gaussian after making the best assignment of the inferred centers to the true Gaussians. We compared several algorithms. K-means was used on the data as a baseline. We compared three low dimensional projection algorithms. Following [5] we used random projections as the first of these. Second, following [11] we used PCA to project on the maximal variance subspace. MSP was used as the third projection algorithm. In all projection algorithm we first projected on a one dimensional space and then applied K-means to find the clusters. Finally, we used the DSC algorithm. The DSC algorithm uses the classregtree function in MATLAB as its learning oracle. Whenever K-means was applied, the MATLAB implementation of this procedure was used with 10 random initial starts. Figure 3(a) shows the results of the first experiment with unit variance in the noise dimensions. In this setting, the Maximal Variance method is expected to work well since the first two dimensions have larger expected variance. Indeed we see that this is the case. However, when the number of dimensions is large, MSP and DSC outperform the other methods; this corresponds to the difficult regime of low signal to noise ratio. In 12800 dimensions, MSP outperforms Random Projections 90% of the time, Maximal Variance 80% of the time, and K-means 79% of the time. DSC outperforms Random Projections, Maximal Variance and K-means 84%, 69%, and 66% of the time respectively. Thus the p-value in all these experiments is < 0.01. Figure 3(b) shows the results of the experiment in which the variance in the noise dimensions is higher which creates a more challanging problem. In this case, we see that all the reference methods suffer significantly, but the MSP and the DSC methods obtain similar results as in the previous setting. Both the MSP and the DSC algorithms win over Random Projections, Maximal Variance and K-means more than 78% of the time when the dimension is 400 and up. The p-value of these experiments is < 1.6 ? 10?7 . 5 Conclusions The mixture problem examined here is closely related to the problem of clustering. Most clustering data can be viewed as points generated from multiple underlying distributions or generating functions, and clustering can be seen as the process of recovering the structure of or assignments to these distributions. We presented two algorithms for the mixture problem that can be viewed as clustering algorithms. The MSP algorithm uses multiple samples to find a low dimensional space to project the data to. The DSC algorithm builds a clustering tree assuming that the clusters are disjoint. We proved that these algorithms work under milder assumptions than currently known methods. The key message in this work is that when multiple samples are available, often it is best not to pool the data into one large sample, but that the structure in the different samples can be leveraged to improve clustering power. 8 References [1] Mikhail Belkin and Kaushik Sinha, Polynomial learning of distribution families, Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2010 51st Annual IEEE Symposium on, IEEE, 2010, pp. 103?112. [2] Shai Ben-David, John Blitzer, Koby Crammer, and Fernando Pereira, Analysis of representations for domain adaptation, Advances in neural information processing systems 19 (2007), 137. [3] David M Blei, Andrew Y Ng, and Michael I Jordan, Latent dirichlet allocation, the Journal of machine Learning research 3 (2003), 993?1022. [4] Kamalika Chaudhuri and Satish Rao, Learning mixtures of product distributions using correlations and independence, Proc. of COLT, 2008. [5] Sanjoy Dasgupta, Learning mixtures of gaussians, Foundations of Computer Science, 1999. 40th Annual Symposium on, IEEE, 1999, pp. 634?644. [6] Adam Tauman Kalai, Ankur Moitra, and Gregory Valiant, Efficiently learning mixtures of two gaussians, Proceedings of the 42nd ACM symposium on Theory of computing, ACM, 2010, pp. 553?562. [7] Ravindran Kannan, Hadi Salmasian, and Santosh Vempala, The spectral method for general mixture models, Learning Theory, Springer, 2005, pp. 444?457. [8] Ankur Moitra and Gregory Valiant, Settling the polynomial learnability of mixtures of gaussians, Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2010 51st Annual IEEE Symposium on, IEEE, 2010, pp. 93?102. [9] Christos H Papadimitriou, Hisao Tamaki, Prabhakar Raghavan, and Santosh Vempala, Latent semantic indexing: A probabilistic analysis, Proceedings of the seventeenth ACM SIGACT-SIGMOD-SIGART symposium on Principles of database systems, ACM, 1998, pp. 159?168. [10] Arora Sanjeev and Ravi Kannan, Learning mixtures of arbitrary gaussians, Proceedings of the thirty-third annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing, ACM, 2001, pp. 247?257. [11] Santosh Vempala and Grant Wang, A spectral algorithm for learning mixtures of distributions, Foundations of Computer Science, 2002. Proceedings. The 43rd Annual IEEE Symposium on, IEEE, 2002, pp. 113?122. 9
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Approximate Inference in Continuous Determinantal Point Processes Raja Hafiz Affandi1 , Emily B. Fox2 , and Ben Taskar2 1 2 University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] University of Washington, {ebfox@stat,taskar@cs}.washington.edu Abstract Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete setting admits an efficient sampling algorithm based on the eigendecomposition of the defining kernel matrix. Recently, there has been growing interest in using DPPs defined on continuous spaces. While the discrete-DPP sampler extends formally to the continuous case, computationally, the steps required are not tractable in general. In this paper, we present two efficient DPP sampling schemes that apply to a wide range of kernel functions: one based on low rank approximations via Nystr?om and random Fourier feature techniques and another based on Gibbs sampling. We demonstrate the utility of continuous DPPs in repulsive mixture modeling and synthesizing human poses spanning activity spaces. 1 Introduction Samples from a determinantal point process (DPP) [15] are sets of points that tend to be spread out. More specifically, given ? ? Rd and a positive semidefinite kernel function L : ? ? ? 7? R, the probability density of a point configuration A ? ? under a DPP with kernel L is given by PL (A) ? det(LA ) , (1) where LA is the |A| ? |A| matrix with entries L(x, y) for each x, y ? A. The tendency for repulsion is captured by the determinant since it depends on the volume spanned by the selected points in the associated Hilbert space of L. Intuitively, points similar according to L or points that are nearly linearly dependent are less likely to be selected. Building on the foundational work in [5] for the case where ? is discrete and finite, DPPs have been used in machine learning as a model for subset selection in which diverse sets are preferred [2, 3, 9, 12, 13]. These methods build on the tractability of sampling based on the algorithm of Hough et al. [10], which relies on the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix to recursively sample points based on their projections onto the subspace spanned by the selected eigenvectors. Repulsive point processes, like hard core processes [7, 16], many based on thinned Poisson processes and Gibbs/Markov distributions, have a long history in the spatial statistics community, where considering continuous ? is key. Many naturally occurring phenomena exhibit diversity?trees tend to grow in the least occupied space [17], ant hill locations are over-dispersed relative to uniform placement [4] and the spatial distribution of nerve fibers is indicative of neuropathy, with hard-core processes providing a critical tool [25]. Repulsive processes on continuous spaces have garnered interest in machine learning as well, especially relating to generative mixture modeling [18, 29]. The computationally attractive properties of DPPs make them appealing to consider in these applications. On the surface, it seems that the eigendecomposition and projection algorithm of [10] for discrete DPPs would naturally extend to the continuous case. While this is true in a formal sense as L 1 becomes an operator instead of a matrix, the key steps such as the eigendecomposition of the kernel and projection of points on subspaces spanned by eigenfunctions are computationally infeasible except in a few very limited cases where approximations can be made [14]. The absence of a tractable DPP sampling algorithm for general kernels in continuous spaces has hindered progress in developing DPP-based models for repulsion. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm to sample from DPPs in continuous spaces using low-rank approximations of the kernel function. We investigate two such schemes: Nystr?om and random Fourier features. Our approach utilizes a dual representation of the DPP, a technique that has proven useful in the discrete ? setting as well [11]. For k-DPPs, which only place positive probability on sets of cardinality k [13], we also devise a Gibbs sampler that iteratively samples points in the k-set conditioned on all k ? 1 other points. The derivation relies on representing the conditional DPPs using the Schur complement of the kernel. Our methods allow us to handle a broad range of typical kernels and continuous subspaces, provided certain simple integrals of the kernel function can be computed efficiently. Decomposing our kernel into quality and similarity terms as in [13], this includes, but is not limited to, all cases where the (i) spectral density of the quality and (ii) characteristic function of the similarity kernel can be computed efficiently. Our methods scale well with dimension, in particular with complexity growing linearly in d. In Sec. 2, we review sampling algorithms for discrete DPPs and the challenges associated with sampling from continuous DPPs. We then propose continuous DPP sampling algorithms based on low-rank kernel approximations in Sec. 3 and Gibbs sampling in Sec. 4. An empirical analysis of the two schemes is provided in Sec. 5. Finally, we apply our methods to repulsive mixture modeling and human pose synthesis in Sec. 6 and 7. 2 Sampling from a DPP When ? is discrete with cardinality N , an efficient algorithm for sampling from a DPP is given in [10]. The algorithm, which is detailed in the supplement, uses an eigendecomposition of the PN kernel matrix L = n=1 ?n vn vn> and recursively samples points xi as follows, resulting in a set A ? DPP(L) with A = {xi }: Phase 1 Select eigenvector vn with probability ?n ?n +1 . Let V be the selected eigenvectors (k = |V |). Phase 2 For i = 1, . . . , k, sample points xi ? ? sequentially with probability based on the projection of xi onto the subspace spanned by V . Once xi is sampled, update V by excluding the subspace spanned by the projection of xi onto V . When ? is discrete, both steps are straightforward since the first phase involves eigendecomposing a kernel matrix and the second phase involves sampling from discrete probability distributions based on inner products between points and eigenvectors. Extending this algorithm to a continuous space was considered by [14], but for a very limited set of kernels L and spaces ?. For general L and ?, we face difficulties in both phases. Extending Phase 1 to a continuous space requires knowledge of the eigendecomposition of the kernel function. When ? is a compact rectangle in Rd , [14] suggest approximating the eigendecomposition using an orthonormal Fourier basis. Even if we are able to obtain the eigendecomposition of the kernel function (either directly or via approximations as considered in [14] and Sec. 3), we still need to implement Phase 2 of the sampling algorithm. Whereas the discrete case only requires sampling from a discrete probability function, here we have to sample from a probability density. When ? is compact, [14] suggest using a rejection sampler with a uniform proposal on ?. The authors note that the acceptance rate of this rejection sampler decreases with the number of points sampled, making the method inefficient in sampling large sets from a DPP. In most other cases, implementing Phase 2 even via rejection sampling is infeasible since the target density is in general non-standard with unknown normalization. Furthermore, a generic proposal distribution can yield extremely low acceptance rates. In summary, current algorithms can sample approximately from a continuous DPP only for translationinvariant kernels defined on a compact space. In Sec. 3, we propose a sampling algorithm that allows us to sample approximately from DPPs for a wide range of kernels L and spaces ?. 2 3 Sampling from a low-rank continuous DPP Again considering ? discrete with cardinality N , the sampling algorithm of Sec. 2 has complexity dominated by the eigendecomposition, O(N 3 ). If the kernel matrix L is low-rank, i.e. L = B > B, with B a D ? N matrix and D  N , [11] showed that the complexity of sampling can be reduced to O(N D2 + D3 ). The basic idea is to exploit the fact that L and the dual kernel matrix C = BB > , which is D ? D, share the same nonzero eigenvalues, and for each eigenvector vk of L, Bvk is the corresponding eigenvector of C. See the supplement for algorithmic details. While the dependence on N in the dual is sharply reduced, in continuous spaces, N is infinite. In order to extend the algorithm, we must find efficient ways to compute C for Phase 1 and manipulate eigenfunctions implicitly for the projections in Phase 2. Generically, consider sampling from a DPP P? on a continuous space ? with kernel L(x, y) = n=1 ?n ?n (x)?n (y),where ?n and ?n (x) are eigenvalues and eigenfunctions, and ?n (y) is the complex conjugate of ?n (y). Assume that we can approximate L by a low-dimensional (generally complex-valued) mapping, B(x) : ? 7? CD : ? L(x, y) = B(x)? B(y) , where B(x) = [B1 (x), . . . , BD (x)]> . (2) Here, A? denotes complex conjugate transpose of A. We consider two efficient low-rank approximation schemes in Sec. 3.1 and 3.2. Using such a low-rank representation, we propose an analog of the dual sampling algorithm for continuous spaces, described in Algorithm 1. A similar algorithm provides samples from a k-DPP, which only gives positive probability to sets of a fixed cardinality k [13]. The only change required is to the for-loop in Phase 1 to select exactly k eigenvectors using an efficient O(Dk) recursion. See the supplement for details. Algorithm 1 Dual sampler for a low-rank continuous DPP ? Input: L(x, y) = B(x)? B(y), PHASE 2 a rank-D DPP kernel X?? PHASE 1 while |V | > 0 do R P Compute C = ? B(x)B(x)? dx ? from f (x) = |V1 | v?V |v? B(x)|2 Sample x PD X ? X ? {? x} Compute eigendecomp. C = k=1 ?k vk vk? Let v0 be a vector in V such that v0? B(? x) 6= 0 J ?? v? B(? x) for k = 1, . . . , D do v | v ? V ? {v0 }} Update V ? {v ? v0? B(? x) 0 k J ? J ? {k} with probability ?k?+1 ? Orthonormalize V w.r.t. hv1 , v2 i = v1 Cv2 V ? { ? v?k }k?J Output: X vk Cvk In this dual view, we still have the same two-phase structure, and must address two key challenges: Phase 1 Assuming a low-rank kernel function decomposition as in Eq. (2), we need to able to compute the dual kernel matrix, given by an integral: Z C= B(x)B(x)? dx . (3) ? Phase 2 In general, sampling directly from the density f (x) is difficult; instead, we can compute the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and sample x using the inverse CDF method [21]: d Z x ?l Y F (? x = (? x1 , . . . , x ?d )) = f (x)1{xl ??} dxl . (4) l=1 ?? ? is finite-rank and (ii) the terms C and f (x) are computable, Assuming (i) the kernel function L ? In what follows, approximations only Algorithm 1 provides exact samples from a DPP with kernel L. ? If given a finite-rank kernel L arise from approximating general kernels L with low-rank kernels L. to begin with, the sampling procedure is exact. One could imagine approximating L as in Eq. (2) by simply truncating the eigendecomposition (either directly or using numerical approximations). However, this simple approximation for known decompositions does not necessarily yield a tractable sampler, because the products of eigenfunctions required in Eq. (3) might not be efficiently integrable. For our approximation algorithm to work, not only do we need methods that approximate the kernel function well, but also that enable us to solve Eq. (3) and (4) directly for many different kernel functions. We consider two such approaches that enable an efficient sampler for a wide range of kernels: Nystr?om and random Fourier features. 3 3.1 Sampling from RFF-approximated DPP Random Fourier features (RFF) [19] is an approach for approximating shift-invariant kernels, k(x, y) = k(x ? y), using randomly selected frequencies. The frequencies are sampled independently from the Fourier transform of the kernel function, ?j ? F(k(x ? y)), and letting: D X ? ? y) = 1 k(x exp{i?j> (x ? y)} , D j=1 x, y ? ? . (5) To apply RFFs, we factor L into a quality function q and similarity kernel k (i.e., q(x) = p L(x, x)): x, y ? ? where k(x, x) = 1. L(x, y) = q(x)k(x, y)q(y) , (6) The RFF approximation can be applied to cases where the similarity function has a known characteristic function, e.g., Gaussian, Laplacian and Cauchy. Using Eq. (5), we can approximate the similarity kernel function to obtain a low-rank kernel and dual matrix: Z D X 1 RF F ? RF F (x, y) = 1 L q(x) exp{i?j> (x ? y)}q(y), Cjk = q 2 (x) exp{i(?j ? ?k )> x}dx. D j=1 D ? The CDF of the sampling distribution f (x) in Algorithm 1 is given by: D D d Z x ?l Y 1 X XX ? vj vk FRF F (? x) = q 2 (x) exp{i(?j ? ?k )> x}1{xl ??} dxl . |V | ?? j=1 v?V k=1 (7) l=1 where vj denotes the jth element of vector v. Note that equations C RF F and FRF F can be computed for many different combinations of ? and q(x). In fact, this method works for any combination of (i) translation-invariant similarity kernel k with known characteristic function and (ii) quality function q with known spectral density. The resulting kernel L need not be translation invariant. In the supplement, we illustrate this method by considering a common and important example where ? = Rd , q(x) is Gaussian, and k(x, y) is any kernel with known Fourier transform. 3.2 Sampling from a Nystr?om-approximated DPP Another approach to kernel approximation is the Nystr?om method [27]. In particular, given z1 , . . . , zD landmarks sampled from ?, we can approximate the kernel function and dual matrix as, Z D X D D X D X X N ys 2 ? N ys (x, y) = L Wjk L(x, zj )L(zk , y), Cjk = Wjn Wmk L(zn , x)L(x, zm )dx, n=1 m=1 j=1 k=1 where Wjk = L(zj , zk )?1/2 . Denoting wj (v) = FN ys (? x) = PD v?V Wjn vn , the CDF of f (x) in Alg. 1 is: n=1 D D 1 X XX wj (v)wk (v) |V | j=1 k=1 d Z Y l=1 ? x ?l L(x, zj )L(zk , x)1{xl ??} dxl . (8) ?? As with the RFF case, we consider a decomposition L(x, y) = q(x)k(x, y)q(y). Here, there are no translation-invariant requirements, even for the similarity kernel k. In the supplement, we provide the important example where ? = Rd and both q(x) and k(x, y) are Gaussians and also when k(x, y) is polynomial, a case that cannot be handled by RFF since it is not translationally invariant. 4 Gibbs sampling For k-DPPs, we can consider a Gibbs sampling scheme. In the supplement, we derive that the full conditional for the inclusion of point xk given the inclusion of the k ? 1 other points is a 1-DPP with a modified kernel, which we know how to sample from. Let the kernel function be represented as before: L(x, y) = q(x)k(x, y)q(y). Denoting J \k = {xj }j6=k and M \k = L?1 the full conditional can J \k be simplified using Schur?s determinantal equality [22]: X \k p(xk |{xj }j6=k ) ? L(xk , xk ) ? Mij L(xi , xk )L(xj , xk ). (9) i,j6=k 4 0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 0.8 0.6 Nystrom RFF 0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 1 Nystrom RFF 0.8 Eigenvalues Nystrom RFF Variational Distance 0.6 Variational Distance Variational Distance 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 2 ? ? ? (a) (b) (c) 3 4 5 d=1 d=5 d=10 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 (d) Figure 1: Estimates of total variational distance for Nystr?om and RFF approximation methods to a DPP with Gaussian quality and similarity with covariances ? = diag(?2 , . . . , ?2 ) and ? = diag(? 2 , . . . , ? 2 ), respectively. (a)-(c) For dimensions d=1, 5 and 10, each plot considers ?2 = 1 and varies ? 2 . (d) Eigenvalues for the Gaussian kernels with ? 2 = ?2 = 1 and varying dimension d. In general, sampling directly from this full conditional is difficult. However, for a wide range of kernel functions, including those which can be handled by the Nystr?om approximation in Sec. 3.2, the CDF can be computed analytically and xk can be sampled using the inverse CDF method: R x? l P \k L(xl , xl ) ? i,j6=k Mij L(xi , xl )L(xj , xl )1{xl ??} dxl ?? F (? xl |{xj }j6=k ) = (10) R P \k L(x, x) ? i,j6=k Mij L(xi , x)L(xj , x)dx ? In the supplement, we illustrate this method by considering the case where ? = Rd and q(x) and k(x, y) are Gaussians. We use this same Schur complement scheme for sampling from the full conditionals in the mixture model application of Sec. 6. A key advantage of this scheme for several types of kernels is that the complexity of sampling scales linearly with the number of dimensions d making it suitable in handling high-dimensional spaces. As with any Gibbs sampling scheme, the mixing rate is dependent on the correlations between variables. In cases where the kernel introduces low repulsion we expect the Gibbs sampler to mix well, while in a high repulsion setting the sampler can mix slowly due to the strong dependencies between points and fact that we are only doing one-point-at-a-time moves. We explore the dependence of convergence on repulsion strength in the supplementary materials. Regardless, this sampler provides a nice tool in the k-DPP setting. Asymptotically, theory suggests that we get exact (though correlated) samples from the k-DPP. To extend this approach to standard DPPs, we can first sample k (this assumes knowledge of the eigenvalues of L) and then apply the above method to get a sample. This is fairly inefficient if many samples are needed. A more involved but potentially efficient approach is to consider a birth-death sampling scheme where the size of the set can grow/shrink by 1 at every step. 5 Empirical analysis To evaluate the performanceP of the RFF and Nystr?om approximations, we compute the total variational distance kPL ? PL? k1 = 12 X |PL (X) ? PL? (X)|, where PL (X) denotes the probability of set X under a DPP with kernel L, as given by Eq. (1). We restrict our analysis to the case where the quality function and similarity kernel are Gaussians with isotropic covariances ? = diag(?2 , . . . , ?2 ) and ? = diag(? 2 , . . . , ? 2 ), respectively, enabling our analysis based on the easily computed eigenvalues [8]. We also focus on sampling from k-DPPs for which the size of the set X is always k. Details are in the supplement. Fig. 1 displays estimates of the total variational distance for the RFF and Nystr?om approximations when ?2 = 1, varying ? 2 (the repulsion strength) and the dimension d. Note that the RFF method performs slightly worse as ? 2 increases and is rather invariant to d while the Nystr?om method performs much better for increasing ? 2 but worse for increasing d. While this phenomenon seems perplexing at first, a study of the eigenvalues of the Gaussian kernel across dimensions sheds light on the rationale (see Fig. 1). Note that for fixed ? 2 and ?2 , the decay of eigenvalues is slower in higher dimensions. It has been previously demonstrated that the Nystr?om method performs favorably in kernel learning tasks compared to RFF in cases where there is a large eigengap in the kernel matrix [28]. The plot of the eigenvalues seems to indicate the same phenomenon here. Furthermore, this result is consistent with the comparison of RFF to Nystr?om in approximating DPPs in the discrete ? case provided in [3]. This behavior can also be explained by looking at the theory behind these two approximations. For the RFF, while the kernel approximation is guaranteed to be an unbiased estimate of the true kernel element-wise, the variance is fairly high [19]. In our case, we note that the RFF estimates of minors are biased because of non-linearity in matrix entries, overestimating probabilities for point 5 configurations that are more spread out, which leads to samples that are overly-dispersed. For the Nystr?om method, on the other hand, the quality of the approximation depends on how well the landmarks cover ?. In our experiments the landmarks are sampled i.i.d. from q(x). When either the similarity bandwidth ? 2 is small or the dimension d is high, the effective distance between points increases, thereby decreasing the accuracy of the approximation. Theoretical bounds for the Nystr?om DPP approximation in the case when ? is finite are provided in [3]. We believe the same result holds for continuous ? by extending the eigenvalues and spectral norm of the kernel matrix to operator eigenvalues and operator norms, respectively. In summary, for moderate values of ? 2 it is generally good to use the Nystr?om approximation for low-dimensional settings and RFF for high-dimensional settings. 6 Repulsive priors for mixture models Mixture models are used in a wide range of applications from clustering to density estimation. A common issue with such models, especially in density estimation tasks, is the introduction of redundant, overlapping components that increase the complexity and reduce interpretability of the resulting model. This phenomenon is especially prominent when the number of samples is small. In a Bayesian setting, a common fix to this problem is to consider a sparse Dirichlet prior on the mixture weights, which penalizes the addition of non-zero-weight components. However, such approaches run the risk of inaccuracies in the parameter estimates [18]. Instead, [18] show that sampling the location parameters using repulsive priors leads to better separated clusters while maintaining the accuracy of the density estimate. They propose a class of repulsive priors that rely on explicitly defining a distance metric and the manner in which small distances are penalized. The resulting posterior computations can be fairly complex. The theoretical properties of DPPs make them an appealing choice as a repulsive prior. In fact, [29] considered using DPPs as repulsive priors in latent variable models. However, in the absence of a feasible continuous DPP sampling algorithm, their method was restricted to performing MAP inference. Here we propose a fully generative probabilistic mixture model using a DPP prior for the location parameters, with a K-component model using a K-DPP. In the common case of mixtures of Gaussians (MoG), our posterior computations can be performed using Gibbs sampling with nearly the same simplicity of the standard case where the location parameters ?k are assumed to be i.i.d.. In particular, with the exception of updating the location parameters {?1 , . . . , ?K }, our sampling steps are identical to standard MoG Gibbs updates in the uncollapsed setting. For the location parameters, instead of sampling each ?k independently from its conditional posterior, our full conditional depends upon the other locations ?\k as well. Details are in the supplement, where we show that this full conditional has an interpretation as a single draw from a tilted 1-DPP. As such, we can employ the Gibbs sampling scheme of Sec. 4. We assess the clustering and density estimation performance of the DPP-based model on both synthetic and real datasets. In each case, we run 10,000 Gibbs iterations, discard 5,000 as burn-in and thin the chain by 10. Hyperparameter settings are in the supplement. We randomly permute the labels in each iteration to ensure balanced label switching. Draws are post-processed following the algorithm of [23] to address the label switching issue. Synthetic data To assess the role of the prior in a density estimation task, we generated a small sample of 100 observations from a mixture of two Gaussians. We consider two cases, the first with well-separated components and the second with poorly-separated components. We compare a mixture model with locations sampled i.i.d. (IID) to our DPP repulsive prior (DPP). In both cases, we set an upper bound of six mixture components. In Fig. 2, we see that both IID and DPP provide very similar density estimates. However, IID uses many large-mass components to describe the density. As a measure of simplicity of the resulting density description, we compute the average entropy of the posterior mixture membership distribution, which is a reasonable metric given the similarity of the overall densities. Lower entropy indicates a more concise representation in an information-theoretic sense. We also assess the accuracy of the density estimate by computing both (i) Hamming distance error relative to true cluster labels and (ii) held-out log-likelihood on 100 observations. The results are summarized in Table 1. We see that DPP results in (i) significantly lower entropy, (ii) lower overall clustering error, and (iii) statistically indistinguishable held-out log-likelihood. These results signify that we have a sparser representation with well-separated (interpretable) clusters while maintaining the accuracy of the density estimate. 6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0.5 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0 ?4 0.1 0.2 ?2 0 2 4 0 ?1 0 1 2 3 4 0.7 0.5 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0.5 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0 ?4 0.1 0.2 ?2 0 2 4 0 ?1 0 1 2 3 4 0.7 0.5 0 ?3 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 0 ?4 0.1 0.2 ?2 0 2 4 0 ?1 0 1 2 3 4 0 ?3 Well-Sep Poor-Sep Galaxy Enzyme Acidity Figure 2: For each synthetic and real dataset: (top) histogram of data overlaid with actual Gaussian mixture generating the synthetic data, and posterior mean mixture model for (middle) IID and (bottom) DPP. Red dashed lines indicate resulting density estimate. Table 1: For IID and DPP on synthetic datasets: mean (stdev) for mixture membership entropy, cluster assignment error rate and held-out log-likelihood of 100 observations under the posterior mean density estimate. DATASET Well-separated Poorly-separated ENTROPY IID DPP 1.11 (0.3) 0.88 (0.2) 1.46 (0.2) 0.92 (0.3) CLUSTERING ERROR IID DPP 0.19 (0.1) 0.19 (0.1) 0.47 (0.1) 0.39 (0.1) HELDOUT LOG-LIKE. IID DPP -169 (6) -171(8) -211(10) -207(9) Real data We also tested our DPP model on three real density estimation tasks considered in [20]: 82 measurements of velocity of galaxies diverging from our own (galaxy), acidity measurement of 155 lakes in Wisconsin (acidity), and the distribution of enzymatic activity in the blood of 245 individuals (enzyme). We once again judge the complexity of the density estimates using the posterior mixture membership entropy as a proxy. To assess the accuracy of the density estimates, we performed 5-fold cross validation to estimate the predictive held-out log-likelihood. As with the synthetic data, we find that DPP visually results in better separated clusters (Fig. 2). The DPP entropy measure is also significantly lower for data that are not well separated (acidity and galaxy) while the differences in predictive log-likelihood estimates are not statistically significant (Table 2). Finally, we consider a classification task based on the iris dataset: 150 observations from three iris species with four length measurements. For this dataset, there has been significant debate on the optimal number of clusters. While there are three species in the data, it is known that two have very low separation. Based on loss minimization, [24, 26] concluded that the optimal number of clusters was two. Table 2 compares the classification error using DPP and IID when we assume for evaluation the real data has three or two classes (by collapsing two low-separation classes) , but consider a model with a maximum of six components. While both methods perform similarly for three classes, DPP has significantly lower classification error under the assumption of two classes, since DPP places large posterior mass on only two mixture components. This result hints at the possibility of using the DPP mixture model as a model selection method. 7 Generating diverse sample perturbations We consider another possible application of continuous-space sampling. In many applications of inverse reinforcement learning or inverse optimal control, the learner is presented with control trajectories executed by an expert and tries to estimate a reward function that would approximately reproduce such policies [1]. In order to estimate the reward function, the learner needs to compare the rewards of a large set of trajectories (or all, if possible), which becomes intractable in highdimensional spaces with complex non-linear dynamics. A typical approximation is to use a set of perturbed expert trajectories as a comparison set, where a good set of trajectories should cover as large a part of the space as possible. 7 Table 2: For IID and DPP, mean (stdev) of (left) mixture membership entropy and held-out log-likelihood for three density estimation tasks and (right) classification error under 2 vs. 2 of true classes for the iris data. DATA Galaxy Acidity Enzyme ENTROPY IID DPP 0.89 (0.2) 0.74 (0.2) 1.32 (0.1) 0.98 (0.1) 1.01 (0.1) 0.96 (0.1) HELDOUT LL. IID DPP -20(2) -21(2) -49 (2) -48(3) -55(2) -55(3) DATA Iris (3 cls) Iris (2 cls) CLASS ERROR IID DPP 0.43 (0.02) 0.43 (0.02) 0.23 (0.03) 0.15 (0.03) Coverage Rate 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 Original DPP IID 50 100 ? DPP Samples Figure 3: Left: Diverse set of human poses relative to an original pose by sampling from an RFF (top) and Nystr?om (bottom) approximations with kernel based on MoCap of the activity dance. Right: Fraction of data having a DPP/i.i.d. sample within an  neighborhood. We propose using DPPs to sample a large-coverage set of trajectories, in particular focusing on a human motion application where we assume a set of motion capture (MoCap) training data taken from the CMU database [6]. Here, our dimension d is 62, corresponding to a set of joint angle measurements. For a given activity, such as dancing, we aim to select a reference pose and synthesize a set of diverse, perturbed poses. To achieve this, we build a kernel with Gaussian quality and similarity using covariances estimated from the training data associated with the activity. The Gaussian quality is centered about the selected reference pose and we synthesize new poses by sampling from our continuous DPP using the low-rank approximation scheme. In Fig. 3, we show an example of such DPP-synthesized poses. For the activity dance, to quantitatively assess our performance in covering the activity space, we compute a coverage rate metric based on a random sample of 50 poses from a DPP. For each training MoCap frame, we compute whether the frame has a neighbor in the DPP sample within an  neighborhood. We compare our coverage to that of i.i.d. sampling from a multivariate Gaussian chosen to have variance matching our DPP sample. Despite favoring the i.i.d. case by inflating the variance to match the diverse DPP sample, the DPP poses still provide better average coverage over 100 runs. See Fig. 3 (right) for an assessment of the coverage metric. A visualization of the samples is in the supplement. Note that the i.i.d. case requires on average  = 253 to cover all data whereas the DPP only requires  = 82. By  = 40, we cover over 90% of the data on average. Capturing the rare poses is extremely challenging with i.i.d. sampling, but the diversity encouraged by the DPP overcomes this issue. 8 Conclusion Motivated by the recent successes of DPP-based subset modeling in finite-set applications and the growing interest in repulsive processes on continuous spaces, we considered methods by which continuous-DPP sampling can be straightforwardly and efficiently approximated for a wide range of kernels. Our low-rank approach harnessed approximations provided by Nystr?om and random Fourier feature methods and then utilized a continuous dual DPP representation. The resulting approximate sampler garners the same efficiencies that led to the success of the DPP in the discrete case. One can use this method as a proposal distribution and correct for the approximations via Metropolis-Hastings, for example. For k-DPPs, we devised an exact Gibbs sampler that utilized the Schur complement representation. Finally, we demonstrated that continuous-DPP sampling is useful both for repulsive mixture modeling (which utilizes the Gibbs sampling scheme) and in synthesizing diverse human poses (which we demonstrated with the low-rank approximation method). As we saw in the MoCap example, we can handle high-dimensional spaces d, with our computations scaling just linearly with d. We believe this work opens up opportunities to use DPPs as parts of many models. Acknowledgements: RHA and EBF were supported in part by AFOSR Grant FA9550-12-1-0453 and DARPA Grant FA9550-12-1-0406 negotiated by AFOSR. BT was partially supported by NSF CAREER Grant 1054215 and by STARnet, a Semiconductor Research Corporation program sponsored by MARCO and DARPA. 8 References [1] P. Abbeel and A.Y. Ng. 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Actor-Critic Algorithms for Risk-Sensitive MDPs Prashanth L.A. INRIA Lille - Team SequeL Mohammad Ghavamzadeh? INRIA Lille - Team SequeL & Adobe Research Abstract In many sequential decision-making problems we may want to manage risk by minimizing some measure of variability in rewards in addition to maximizing a standard criterion. Variance-related risk measures are among the most common risk-sensitive criteria in finance and operations research. However, optimizing many such criteria is known to be a hard problem. In this paper, we consider both discounted and average reward Markov decision processes. For each formulation, we first define a measure of variability for a policy, which in turn gives us a set of risk-sensitive criteria to optimize. For each of these criteria, we derive a formula for computing its gradient. We then devise actor-critic algorithms for estimating the gradient and updating the policy parameters in the ascent direction. We establish the convergence of our algorithms to locally risk-sensitive optimal policies. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithms in a traffic signal control application. 1 Introduction The usual optimization criteria for an infinite horizon Markov decision process (MDP) are the expected sum of discounted rewards and the average reward. Many algorithms have been developed to maximize these criteria both when the model of the system is known (planning) and unknown (learning). These algorithms can be categorized to value function based methods that are mainly based on the two celebrated dynamic programming algorithms value iteration and policy iteration; and policy gradient methods that are based on updating the policy parameters in the direction of the gradient of a performance measure (the value function of the initial state or the average reward). However in many applications, we may prefer to minimize some measure of risk as well as maximizing a usual optimization criterion. In such cases, we would like to use a criterion that incorporates a penalty for the variability induced by a given policy. This variability can be due to two types of uncertainties: 1) uncertainties in the model parameters, which is the topic of robust MDPs (e.g., [12, 7, 24]), and 2) the inherent uncertainty related to the stochastic nature of the system, which is the topic of risk-sensitive MDPs (e.g., [10]). In risk-sensitive sequential decision-making, the objective is to maximize a risk-sensitive criterion such as the expected exponential utility [10], a variance-related measure [19, 8], or the percentile performance [9]. The issue of how to construct such criteria in a manner that will be both conceptually meaningful and mathematically tractable is still an open question. Although risk-sensitive sequential decision-making has a long history in operations research and finance, it has only recently grabbed attention in the machine learning community. This is why most of the work on this topic (including those mentioned above) has been in the context of MDPs (when the model is known) and much less work has been done within the reinforcement learning (RL) framework. In risk-sensitive RL, we can mention the work by Borkar [4, 5] who considered the expected exponential utility and the one by Tamar et al. [22] on several variance-related measures. Tamar et al. [22] study stochastic shortest path problems, and in this context, propose a policy gradient algorithm for maximizing several risk-sensitive criteria that involve both the expectation and variance of the return random variable (defined as the sum of rewards received in an episode). ? Mohammad Ghavamzadeh is at Adobe Research, on leave of absence from INRIA Lille - Team SequeL. 1 In this paper, we develop actor-critic algorithms for optimizing variance-related risk measures in both discounted and average reward MDPs. Our contributions can be summarized as follows: ? In the discounted reward setting we define the measure of variability as the variance of the return (similar to [22]). We formulate a constrained optimization problem with the aim of maximizing the mean of the return subject to its variance being bounded from above. We employ the Lagrangian relaxation procedure [1] and derive a formula for the gradient of the Lagrangian. Since this requires the gradient of the value function at every state of the MDP (see the discussion in Sections 3 and 4), we estimate the gradient of the Lagrangian using two simultaneous perturbation methods: simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) [20] and smoothed functional (SF) [11], resulting in two separate discounted reward actor-critic algorithms.1 ? In the average reward formulation, we first define the measure of variability as the long-run variance of a policy, and using a constrained optimization problem similar to the discounted case, derive an expression for the gradient of the Lagrangian. We then develop an actor-critic algorithm with compatible features [21, 13] to estimate the gradient and to optimize the policy parameters. ? Using the ordinary differential equations (ODE) approach, we establish the asymptotic convergence of our algorithms to locally risk-sensitive optimal policies. Further, we demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithms in a traffic signal control problem. In comparison to [22], which is the closest related work, we would like to remark that while the authors there develop policy gradient methods for stochastic shortest path problems, we devise actorcritic algorithms for both discounted and average reward settings. Moreover, we note the difficulty in the discounted formulation that requires to estimate the gradient of the value function at every state of the MDP, and thus, motivated us to employ simultaneous perturbation techniques. 2 Preliminaries We consider problems in which the agent?s interaction with the environment is modeled as a MDP. A MDP is a tuple (X , A, R, P, P0 ) where X = {1, . . . , n} and A = {1, . . . , m} are the state and action  spaces;  R(x, a) is the reward random variable whose expectation is denoted by r(x, a) = E R(x, a) ; P (?|x, a) is the transition probability distribution; and P0 (?) is the initial state distribution. We also need to specify the rule according to which the agent selects actions at each state. A stationary policy ?(?|x) is a probability distribution over actions, conditioned on the current state. In  policy gradient and actor-critic methods, we define a class of parameterized stochastic policies ?(?|x; ?), x ? X , ? ? ? ? R?1 , estimate the gradient of a performance measure w.r.t. the policy parameters ? from the observed system trajectories, and then improve the policy by adjusting its parameters in the direction of the gradient. Since in this setting a policy ? is represented by its ?1 -dimensional parameter vector ?, policy dependent functions can be written as a function of ? in place of ?. So, we use ? and ? interchangeably in the paper. We denote by d? (x) and ? ? (x, a) = d? (x)?(a|x) the stationary distribution of state x and stateaction pair (x, a) under policy ?, respectively. In the discounted formulation, we also define the discounted visiting distribution of state x and state-action pair (x, a) under policy ? as d?? (x|x0 ) = P? (1 ? ?) t=0 ? t Pr(xt = x|x0 = x0 ; ?) and ??? (x, a|x0 ) = d?? (x|x0 )?(a|x). 3 Discounted Reward Setting For a given policy ?, we define the return of a state x (state-action pair (x, a)) as the sum of discounted rewards encountered by the agent when it starts at state x (state-action pair (x, a)) and then follows policy ?, i.e., D? (x) = ? X ? t R(xt , at ) | x0 = x, ?, D? (x, a) = t=0 ? X ? t R(xt , at ) | x0 = x, a0 = a, ?. t=0 The expected value of  these two random variablesare the value  and action-value functions of policy ?, i.e., V ? (x) = E D? (x) and Q? (x, a) = E D? (x, a) . The goal in the standard discounted reward formulation is to find an optimal policy ?? = arg max? V ? (x0 ), where x0 is the initial state of the system. This extended to the case that the system has more than one initial state Pcan be easily ?? = arg max? P0 (x)V ? (x). x?X 1 We note here that our algorithms can be easily extended to other variance-related risk criteria such as the Sharpe ratio, which is popular in financial decision-making [18] (see Appendix D of [17]). 2 The most common measure of the variability in the stream of rewards is the variance of the return   ?? (x) = E D? (x)2 ? V ? (x)2 = U ? (x) ? V ? (x)2 , (1)   4 first introduced by Sobel [19]. Note that U ? (x) = E D? (x)2 is the square reward value function of state x under policy ?. Although ?? of (1) satisfies a Bellman equation, unfortunately, it lacks the monotonicity property of dynamic programming (DP), and thus, it is not clear how the related risk measures can be optimized by standard DP algorithms [19]. This is why policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms are good candidates to deal with this risk measure. We consider the following risk-sensitive measure for discounted MDPs: for a given ? > 0, max V ? (x0 ) subject to ? ?? (x0 ) ? ?. (2) To solve (2), we employ the Lagrangian relaxation procedure [1] to convert it to the following unconstrained problem:   4 max min L(?, ?) = ?V ? (x0 ) + ? ?? (x0 ) ? ? , ? ? (3) where ? is the Lagrange multiplier. The goal here is to find the saddle point of L(?, ?), i.e., a point (?? , ?? ) that satisfies L(?, ?? ) ? L(?? , ?? ) ? L(?? , ?), ??, ?? > 0. This is achieved by descending in ? and ascending in ? using the gradients ?? L(?, ?) = ??? V ? (x0 ) + ??? ?? (x0 ) and ?? L(?, ?) = ?? (x0 ) ? ?, respectively. Since ??? (x0 ) = ?U ? (x0 ) ? 2V ? (x0 )?V ? (x0 ), in order to compute ??? (x0 ), we need to calculate ?U ? (x0 ) and ?V ? (x0 ). From the Bellman equation of ?? (x), proposed by Sobel [19], it is straightforward to derive Bellman equations for U ? (x) and the   4 square reward action-value function W ? (x, a) = E D? (x, a)2 (see Appendix B.1 of [17]). Using these definitions and notations we are now ready to derive expressions for the gradient of V ? (x0 ) and U ? (x0 ) that are the main ingredients in calculating ?? L(?, ?). Lemma 1 Assuming for all (x, a), ?(a|x; ?) is continuously differentiable in ?, we have (1 ? ?)?V ? (x0 ) = X ??? (x, a|x0 )? log ?(a|x; ?)Q? (x, a), x,a 2 ? 0 (1 ? ? )?U (x ) = X ? e?? (x, a|x0 )? log ?(a|x; ?)W ? (x, a) x,a + 2? X ? e?? (x, a|x0 )P (x0 |x, a)r(x, a)?V ? (x0 ), x,a,x0 P? where ? e?? (x, a|x0 ) = de?? (x|x0 )?(a|x) and de?? (x|x0 ) = (1 ? ? 2 ) t=0 ? 2t Pr(xt = x|x0 = x0 ; ?). The proof of the above lemma is available in Appendix B.2 of [17]. It is challenging to devise an efficient method to estimate ?? L(?, ?) using the gradient formulas of Lemma 1. This is mainly because 1) two different sampling distributions (??? and ? e?? ) are used for ?V ? (x0 ) and ?U ? (x0 ), ? 0 ? 0 and 2) ?V (x ) appears in the second sum of ?U (x ) equation, which implies that we need to estimate the gradient of the value function V ? at every state of the MDP. These are the main motivations behind using simultaneous perturbation methods for estimating ?? L(?, ?) in Section 4. 4 Discounted Reward Algorithms In this section, we present actor-critic algorithms for optimizing the risk-sensitive measure (2) that are based on two simultaneous perturbation methods: simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) and smoothed functional (SF) [3]. The idea in these methods is to estimate the gradients ?V ? (x0 ) and ?U ? (x0 ) using two simulated trajectories of the system corresponding to policies with parameters ? and ?+ = ? + ??. Here ? > 0 is a positive constant and ? is a perturbation random variable, i.e., a ?1 -vector of independent Rademacher (for SPSA) and Gaussian N (0, 1) (for SF) random variables. In our actor-critic algorithms, the critic uses linear approximation for the b (x) ? u> ?u (x), where the features value and square value functions, i.e., Vb (x) ? v > ?v (x) and U ?v (?) and ?u (?) are from low-dimensional spaces R?2 and R?3 , respectively. SPSA-based gradient estimates were first proposed in [20] and have been widely studied and found to be highly efficient in various settings, especially those involving high-dimensional parameters. The SPSA-based estimate for ?V ? (x0 ), and similarly for ?U ? (x0 ), is given by: 3 ??t + ?t + + a+ t ? ?(?|xt ; ?t ) + + ?t+ , ?+ t , v t , ut Update ?t using (8) rt at ? ?(?|xt ; ?t ) Actor Critic rt+ ?t+1 or (9) ? t , ? t , v t , ut Critic Figure 1: The overall flow of our simultaneous perturbation based actor-critic algorithms. ??(i) Vb ? (x0 ) ? Vb ?+?? (x0 ) ? Vb ? (x0 ) , ??(i) i = 1, . . . , ?1 , (4) where ? is a vector of independent Rademacher random variables. The advantage of this estimator is that it perturbs all directions at the same time (the numerator is identical in all ?1 components). So, the number of function measurements needed for this estimator is always two, independent of the dimension ?1 . However, unlike the SPSA estimates in [20] that use two-sided balanced estimates (simulations with parameters ? ??? and ? +??), our gradient estimates are one-sided (simulations with parameters ? and ?+??) and resemble those in [6]. The use of one-sided estimates is primarily because the updates of the Lagrangian parameter ? require a simulation with the running parameter ?. Using a balanced gradient estimate would therefore come at the cost of an additional simulation (the resulting procedure would then require three simulations), which we avoid by using one-sided gradient estimates. SF-based method estimates not the gradient of a function H(?) itself, but rather the convolution of ?H(?) with the Gaussian density function N (0, ? 2 I), i.e., Z C? H(?) = Z G? (? ? z)?z H(z)dz = ?z G? (z)H(? ? z)dz = 1 ? Z ?z 0 G1 (z 0 )H(? ? ?z 0 )dz 0 , where G? is a ?1 -dimensional probability density function. The first equality above follows by using integration by parts and the second one by using the fact that ?z G? (z) = ?z ? 2 G? (z) and by substituting z 0 = z/?. As ? ? 0, it can be seen that C? H(?) converges to ?? H(?) (see Chapter 6 of [3]). Thus, a one-sided SF estimate of ?V ? (x0 ) is given by ??(i) Vb ? (x0 ) ?  ?(i)  b ?+?? 0 V (x ) ? Vb ? (x0 ) , ? i = 1, . . . , ?1 , (5) where ? is a vector of independent Gaussian N (0, 1) random variables. The overall flow of our proposed actor-critic algorithms is illustrated in Figure 1 and involves the following main steps at each time step t: (1) Take action at ? ?(?|xt ; ?t ), observe the reward r(xt , at ) and next state xt+1 in the first trajectory. + + + + + (2) Take action a+ t ? ?(?|xt ; ?t ), observe the reward r(xt , at ) and next state xt+1 in the second trajectory. (3) Critic Update: Calculate the temporal difference (TD)-errors ?t , ?t+ for the value and t , + t for the square value functions using (7), and update the critic parameters vt , vt+ for the value and ut , u+ t for the square value functions as follows: vt+1 = vt + ?3 (t)?t ?v (xt ), + vt+1 = vt+ + ?3 (t)?t+ ?v (x+ t ), ut+1 = ut + ?3 (t)t ?u (xt ), + + + u+ t+1 = ut + ?3 (t)t ?u (xt ), (6) where the TD-errors ?t , ?t+ , t , + t in (6) are computed as ?t = r(xt , at ) + ?vt> ?v (xt+1 ) ? vt> ?v (xt ), + +> +> ?t+ = r(x+ ?v (x+ ?v (x+ t , at ) + ?vt t ), t+1 ) ? vt > t = r(xt , at )2 + 2?r(xt , at )vt> ?v (xt+1 ) + ? 2 u> t ?u (xt+1 ) ? ut ?u (xt ), + + 2 + + +> 2 +> +> + ?v (x+ ?u (x+ ?u (x+ t = r(xt , at ) + 2?r(xt , at )vt t ). t+1 ) + ? ut t+1 ) ? ut 4 (7) This TD algorithm to learn the value and square value functions is a straightforward extension of the algorithm proposed in [23] to the discounted setting. Note that the TD-error  for the square value function U comes directly from the Bellman equation for U (see Appendix B.1 of [17]). (4) Actor Update: Estimate the gradients ?V ? (x0 ) and ?U ? (x0 ) using SPSA (4) or SF (5) and update the policy parameter ? and the Lagrange multiplier ? as follows: For i = 1, . . . , ?1 , (i) ?t+1  = (i) ? i ?t + ?2 (t)  (i) 1+ ??t  2?t vt> ?v (x0 ) (vt+ > 0 ? vt ) ?v (x ) ? ?t (u+ t  ? ut ) ?u (x ) , SPSA (8) > 0  (i)   ?2 (t)?t  (i) (i) > 0 ?t+1 = ?i ?t + , SF (9) 1 + 2?t vt> ?v (x0 ) (vt+ ? vt )> ?v (x0 ) ? ?t (u+ t ? ut ) ?u (x ) ?     0 > 0 2 (10) ?t+1 = ?? ?t + ?1 (t) u> ?? . t ?u (x ) ? vt ?v (x ) (i) Note that 1) the ?-update is the same for both SPSA and SF methods, 2) ?t ?s are independent Rademacher and Gaussian N (0, 1) random variables in SPSA and SF updates, respectively, 3) ? is an operator that projects a vector ? ? R?1 to the closest point in a compact and convex set C ? R?1 , and ?? is a projection operator to [0, ?max ]. These projection operators are necessary to ensure convergence of the algorithms, and 4) the step-size schedules {?3 (t)}, {?2 (t)}, and {?1 (t)} are chosen such that the critic updates are on the fastest time-scale, the policy parameter update is on the intermediate time-scale, and the Lagrange multiplier update is on the slowest time-scale (see Appendix A of [17] for the conditions on the step-size schedules). A proof of convergence of the SPSA and SF algorithms to a (local) saddle point of the risk-sensitive objective function 4 b ?) = b ? (x0 ) ? ?) is given in Appendix B.3 of [17]. L(?, ?Vb ? (x0 ) + ?(? 5 Average Reward Setting The average reward per step under policy ? is defined as (see Sec. 2 for the definitions of d? and ? ? ) "T ?1 # X X ? 1 ?(?) = lim E Rt | ? = d (x)?(a|x)r(x, a). T ?? T t=0 x,a The goal in the standard (risk-neutral) average reward formulation is to find an average optimal policy, i.e., ?? = arg max? ?(?). Here a policy ? is assessed according to the expected differential reward associated with states or state-action pairs. For all states x ? X and actions a ? A, the differential action-value and value functions of policy ? are defined as Q? (x, a) = ? X   E Rt ? ?(?) | x0 = x, a0 = a, ? , V ? (x) = t=0 X ?(a|x)Q? (x, a). a In the context of risk-sensitive MDPs, different criteria have been proposed to define a measure of variability, among which we consider the long-run variance of ? [8] defined as ?(?) = X  2 ? (x, a) r(x, a) ? ?(?) = ? x,a "T ?1 # X 2 1 E Rt ? ?(?) | ? . lim T ?? T t=0 (11) This notion of variability is based on the observation that it is the frequency of occurrence of stateaction pairs that determine the variability in the average reward. It is easy to show that ?(?) = ?(?) ? ?(?)2 , where ?(?) = X ? ? (x, a)r(x, a)2 . x,a We consider the following risk-sensitive measure for average reward MDPs in this paper: max ?(?) ? subject to ?(?) ? ?, (12) for a given ? > 0. As in the discounted setting, we employ the Lagrangian relaxation procedure to convert (12) to the unconstrained problem   4 max min L(?, ?) = ??(?) + ? ?(?) ? ? . ? ? Similar to the discounted case, we descend in ? using ?? L(?, ?) = ??? ?(?) + ??? ?(?) and ascend in ? using ?? L(?, ?) = ?(?) ? ?, to find the saddle point of L(?, ?). Since ??(?) = ??(?) ? 5 2?(?)??(?), in order to compute ??(?) it would be enough to calculate ??(?). Let U ? and W ? denote the differential value and action-value functions associated with the square reward under policy ?, respectively. These two quantities satisfy the following Poisson equations: ?(?) + U ? (x) = X X   ?(a|x) r(x, a)2 + P (x0 |x, a)U ? (x0 ) , x0 a ? 2 ?(?) + W (x, a) = r(x, a) + X 0 P (x |x, a)U ? (x0 ). (13) x0 We calculate the gradients of ?(?) and ?(?) as (see Lemma 5 of Appendix C.1 in [17]): ??(?) = X ?(x, a; ?)? log ?(a|x; ?)Q(x, a; ?), (14) ?(x, a; ?)? log ?(a|x; ?)W (x, a; ?). (15) x,a ??(?) = X x,a Note that (15) for calculating ??(?) has close resemblance to (14) for ??(?), and thus, similar to what we have for (14), any function b : X ? R can be added or subtracted to W (x, a; ?) on the RHS of (15) without changing the result of the integral (see e.g., [2]). So, we can replace W (x, a; ?) with the square reward advantage function B(x, a; ?) = W (x, a; ?)?U (x; ?) on the RHS of (15) in the same manner as we can replace Q(x, a; ?) with the advantage function A(x, a; ?) = Q(x, a; ?) ? V (x; ?) on the RHS of (14) without changing the result of the integral. We define the temporal difference (TD) errors ?t and t for the differential value and square value functions as b (xt+1 ) ? U b (xt ). t = R(xt , at )2 ? ?bt+1 + U ?t = R(xt , at ) ? ?bt+1 + Vb (xt+1 ) ? Vb (xt ), b , ?b, and ?b are unbiased estimators of V ? , U ? , ?(?), and ?(?), respectively, then we can show If Vb , U that ?t and t are unbiased estimates of the advantage functions A? and B ? , i.e., E[ ?t | xt , at , ?] = A? (xt , at ), and E[ t | xt , at , ?] = B ? (xt , at ) (see Lemma 6 in Appendix C.2 of [17]). From this, we notice that ?t ?t and t ?t are unbiased estimates of ??(?) and ??(?), respectively, where ?t = ?(xt , at ) = ? log ?(at |xt ) is the compatible feature (see e.g., [21, 13]). 6 Average Reward Algorithm We now present our risk-sensitive actor-critic algorithm for average reward MDPs. Algorithm 1 presents the complete structure of the algorithm along with update rules for the average rewards ?bt , ?bt ; TD errors ?t , t ; critic vt , ut ; and actor ?t , ?t parameters. The projection operators ? and ?? are as defined in Section 4, and similar to the discounted setting, are necessary for the convergence proof of the algorithm. The step-size schedules satisfy the standard conditions for stochastic approximation algorithms, and ensure that the average and critic updates are on the (same) fastest time-scale {?4 (t)} and {?3 (t)}, the policy parameter update is on the intermediate time-scale {?2 (t)}, and the Lagrange multiplier is on the slowest time-scale {?1 (t)}. This results in a three time-scale stochastic approximation algorithm. As in the discounted setting, the critic uses linear approximation for the b (x) = u> ?u (x), where differential value and square value functions, i.e., Vb (x) = v > ?v (x) and U ?v (?) and ?u (?) are feature vectors of size ?2 and ?3 , respectively. Although our estimates of ?(?) and ?(?) are unbiased, since we use biased estimates for V ? and U ? (linear approximations in the critic), our gradient estimates ??(?) and ??(?), and as a result ?L(?, ?), are biased. Lemma 7 in Appendix C.2 of [17] shows the bias in our estimate of ?L(?, ?). We prove that our actor-critic algorithm converges to a (local) saddle point of the risk-sensitive objective function L(?, ?) (see Appendix C.3 of [17]). 7 Experimental Results We evaluate our algorithms in the context of a traffic signal control application. The objective in our formulation is to minimize the total number of vehicles in the system, which indirectly minimizes the delay experienced by the system. The motivation behind using a risk-sensitive control strategy is to reduce the variations in the delay experienced by road users. We consider both infinite horizon discounted as well average settings for the traffic signal control MDP, formulated as in [15]. We briefly recall their formulation here: The state at each time t, xt , is the vector of queue lengths and elapsed times and is given by xt = 6 Algorithm 1 Template of the Average Reward Risk-Sensitive Actor-Critic Algorithm Input: parameterized policy ?(?|?; ?) and value function feature vectors ?v (?) and ?u (?) Initialization: policy parameters ? = ?0 ; value function weight vectors v = v0 and u = u0 ; initial state x0 ? P0 (x) for t = 0, 1, 2, . . . do Draw action at ? ?(?|xt ; ?t ) Observe next state xt+1 ? P (?|xt , at ) Observe reward R(xt , at )   Average Updates: ?bt+1 = 1 ? ?4 (t) ?bt + ?4 (t)R(xt , at ), ?bt+1 = 1 ? ?4 (t) ?bt + ?4 (t)R(xt , at )2 TD Errors: ?t = R(xt , at ) ? ?bt+1 + vt> ?v (xt+1 ) ? vt> ?v (xt ) > t = R(xt , at )2 ? ?bt+1 + u> t ?u (xt+1 ) ? ut ?u (xt ) Critic Updates: vt+1 = vt + ?3 (t)?t ?v (xt ), ut+1 = ut + ?3 (t)t ?u (xt )   Actor Updates: ?t+1 = ? ?t ? ?2 (t) ? ?t ?t + ?t (t ?t ? 2b ?t+1 ?t ?t )   ?t+1 = ?? ?t + ?1 (t)(b ?t+1 ? ?b2t+1 ? ?) (16) (17) (18) end for return policy and value function parameters ?, ?, v, u  q1 (t), . . . , qN (t), t1 (t), . . . , tN (t) . Here qi and ti denote the queue length and elapsed time since the signal turned to red on lane i. The actions at belong to the set of feasible sign configurations. The single-stage cost function h(xt ) is defined as follows: h(xt ) = r1 hX r2 ? qi (t) + i?Ip X i hX i X s2 ? qi (t) + s1 r2 ? ti (t) + s2 ? ti (t) , i?Ip i?I / p (19) i?I / p where ri , si ? 0 such that ri + si = 1 for i = 1, 2 and r2 > s2 . The set Ip is the set of prioritized lanes in the road network considered. While the weights r1 , s1 are used to differentiate between the queue length and elapsed time factors, the weights r2 , s2 help in prioritization of traffic. Given the above traffic control setting, we aim to minimize both the long run discounted as well average sum of the cost function h(xt ). The underlying policy for all the algorithms is a parameterized Boltzmann policy (see Appendix F of [17]). We implement the following algorithms in the discounted setting: (i) Risk-neutral SPSA and SF algorithms with the actor update as follows: (i) ?t+1 ! ?2 (t) = ?i + = ?i (i) ?t ?2 (t)?t + (vt+ ? vt )> ?v (x0 ) ? (vt+ (i) ??t (i) (i) ?t+1 > (i) ?t 0 ? vt ) ?v (x ) SPSA, ! SF, where the critic parameters vt+ , vt are updated according to (6). Note that these are two-timescale algorithms with a TD critic on the faster timescale and the actor on the slower timescale. (ii) Risk-sensitive SPSA and SF algorithms (RS-SPSA and RS-SF) of Section 4 that attempt to solve (2) and update the policy parameter according to (8) and (9), respectively. In the average setting, we implement (i) the risk-neutral AC algorithm from [14] that incorporates an actor-critic scheme, and (ii) the risk-sensitive algorithm of Section 6 (RS-AC) that attempts to solve (12) and updates the policy parameter according to (17). All our algorithms incorporate function approximation owing to the curse of dimensionality associated with larger road networks. For instance, assuming only 20 vehicles per lane of a 2x2-grid network, the cardinality of the state space is approximately of the order 1032 and the situation is aggravated as the size of the road network increases. The choice of features used in each of our algorithms is as described in Section V-B of [16]. We perform the experiments on a 2x2-grid network. The list of parameters and step-sizes chosen for our algorithms is given in Appendix F of [17]. Figures 2(a) and 2(b) show the distribution of the discounted cumulative reward D? (x0 ) for the SPSA and SF algorithms, respectively. Figure 3(a) shows the distribution of the average reward ? for the algorithms in the average setting. From these plots, we notice that the risk-sensitive algorithms 7 0.2 0.16 SPSA RS-SPSA 0.18 SF RS-SF 0.14 0.16 0.12 Probability Probability 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0 20 25 30 35 40 D?(x0) 45 0 50 30 35 (a) SPSA vs. RS-SPSA 40 45 D?(x0) 50 55 (b) SF vs. RS-SF Figure 2: Performance comparison in the discounted setting using the distribution of D? (x0 ). 0.1 30 AC RS-AC 0.09 25 0.08 20 0.06 AJWT Probability 0.07 0.05 15 0.04 10 0.03 0.02 5 RS-AC AC 0.01 0 0 20 30 40 ? 50 60 70 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 time (a) Distribution of ? (b) Average junction waiting time Figure 3: Comparison of AC vs. RS-AC in the average setting using two different metrics. that we propose result in a long-term (discounted or average) reward that is higher than their riskneutral variants. However, from the empirical variance of the reward (both discounted as well as average) perspective, the risk-sensitive algorithms outperform their risk-neutral variants. We use average junction waiting time (AJWT) to compare the algorithms from a traffic signal control application standpoint. Figure 3(b) presents the AJWT plots for the algorithms in the average setting (see Appendix F of [17] for similar results for the SPSA and SF algorithms in the discounted setting). We observe that the performance of our risk-sensitive algorithms is not significantly worse than their risk-neutral counterparts. This coupled with the observation that our algorithms exhibit low variance, makes them a suitable choice in risk-constrained systems. 8 Conclusions and Future Work We proposed novel actor critic algorithms for control in risk-sensitive discounted and average reward MDPs. All our algorithms involve a TD critic on the fast timescale, a policy gradient (actor) on the intermediate timescale, and dual ascent for Lagrange multipliers on the slowest timescale. In the discounted setting, we pointed out the difficultly in estimating the gradient of the variance of the return and incorporated simultaneous perturbation based SPSA and SF approaches for gradient estimation in our algorithms. The average setting, on the other hand, allowed for an actor to employ compatible features to estimate the gradient of the variance. We provided proofs of convergence (in the appendix of [17]) to locally (risk-sensitive) optimal policies for all the proposed algorithms. Further, using a traffic signal control application, we observed that our algorithms resulted in lower variance empirically as compared to their risk-neutral counterparts. In this paper, we established asymptotic limits for our discounted and average reward risk-sensitive actor-critic algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, there are no convergence rate results available for multi-timescale stochastic approximation schemes and hence for actor-critic algorithms. This is true even for the actor-critic algorithms that do not incorporate any risk criterion. It would be an interesting research direction to obtain finite-time bounds on the quality of the solution obtained by these algorithms. 8 References [1] D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999. [2] S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45 (11):2471?2482, 2009. [3] S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L.A. Prashanth. Stochastic Recursive Algorithms for Optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013. [4] V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339?346, 2001. [5] V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294?311, 2002. [6] H. Chen, T. Duncan, and B. Pasik-Duncan. A Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm with randomized differences. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 44(3):442?453, 1999. [7] E. Delage and S. Mannor. Percentile optimization for Markov decision processes with parameter uncertainty. Operations Research, 58(1):203?213, 2010. [8] J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 14(1):147?161, 1989. [9] J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2?10, 1995. [10] R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7): 356?369, 1972. [11] V. Katkovnik and Y. Kulchitsky. Convergence of a class of random search algorithms. Automatic Remote Control, 8:81?87, 1972. [12] A. Nilim and L. El Ghaoui. Robust control of Markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices. Operations Research, 53(5):780?798, 2005. [13] J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280?291, 2005. [14] L.A. Prashanth and S. Bhatnagar. Reinforcement learning with average cost for adaptive control of traffic lights at intersections. In Proceedings of the Fourteenth International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, pages 1640?1645. IEEE, 2011. [15] L.A. Prashanth and S. Bhatnagar. Reinforcement Learning With Function Approximation for Traffic Signal Control. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 12(2):412?421, june 2011. [16] L.A. Prashanth and S. Bhatnagar. Threshold Tuning Using Stochastic Optimization for Graded Signal Control. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, 61(9):3865?3880, Nov. 2012. [17] L.A. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-Critic Algorithms for Risk-Sensitive MDPs. Technical report inria-00794721, INRIA, 2013. [18] W. Sharpe. Mutual fund performance. Journal of Business, 39(1):119?138, 1966. [19] M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794?802, 1982. [20] J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332?341, 1992. [21] R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057?1063, 2000. [22] A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387?396, 2012. [23] A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Temporal difference methods for the variance of the reward to go. In Proceedings of the Thirtieth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 495?503, 2013. [24] H. Xu and S. Mannor. Distributionally robust Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 37(2):288?300, 2012. 9
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Learning from Limited Demonstrations Beomjoon Kim School of Computer Science McGill University Montreal, Quebec, Canada Amir-massoud Farahmand School of Computer Science McGill University Montreal, Quebec, Canada Joelle Pineau School of Computer Science McGill University Montreal, Quebec, Canada Doina Precup School of Computer Science McGill University Montreal, Quebec, Canada Abstract We propose a Learning from Demonstration (LfD) algorithm which leverages expert data, even if they are very few or inaccurate. We achieve this by using both expert data, as well as reinforcement signals gathered through trial-and-error interactions with the environment. The key idea of our approach, Approximate Policy Iteration with Demonstration (APID), is that expert?s suggestions are used to define linear constraints which guide the optimization performed by Approximate Policy Iteration. We prove an upper bound on the Bellman error of the estimate computed by APID at each iteration. Moreover, we show empirically that APID outperforms pure Approximate Policy Iteration, a state-of-the-art LfD algorithm, and supervised learning in a variety of scenarios, including when very few and/or suboptimal demonstrations are available. Our experiments include simulations as well as a real robot path-finding task. 1 Introduction Learning from Demonstration (LfD) is a practical framework for learning complex behaviour policies from demonstration trajectories produced by an expert. In most conventional approaches to LfD, the agent observes mappings between states and actions in the expert trajectories, and uses supervised learning to estimate a function that can approximately reproduce this mapping. Ideally, the function (i.e., policy) should also generalize well to regions of the state space that are not observed in the demonstration data. Many of the recent methods focus on incrementally querying the expert in appropriate regions of the state space to improve the learned policy, or to reduce uncertainty [1, 2, 3]. Key assumptions of most these works are that (1) the expert exhibits optimal behaviour, (2) the expert demonstrations are abundant, and (3) the expert stays with the learning agent throughout the training. In practice, these assumptions significantly reduce the applicability of LfD. We present a framework that leverages insights and techniques from the reinforcement learning (RL) literature to overcome these limitations of the conventional LfD methods. RL is a general framework for learning optimal policies from trial-and-error interactions with the environment [4, 5]. The conventional RL approaches alone, however, might have difficulties in achieving a good performance from relatively little data. Moreover, they are not particularly cautious to risk involved in trial-and-error learning, which could lead to catastrophic failures. A combination of both expert and interaction data (i.e., mixing LfD and RL), however, offers a tantalizing way to effectively address challenging real-world policy learning problems under realistic assumptions. Our primary contribution is a new algorithmic framework that integrates LfD, tackled using a large margin classifier, with a regularized Approximate Policy Iteration (API) method. The method is 1 formulated as a coupled constraint convex optimization, in which expert demonstrations define a set of linear constraints in API. The optimization is formulated in a way that permits mistakes in the demonstrations provided by the expert, and also accommodates variable availability of demonstrations (i.e., just an initial batch or continued demonstrations). We provide a theoretical analysis describing an upper bound on the Bellman error achievable by our approach. We evaluate our algorithm in a simulated environment under various scenarios, such as varying the quality and quantity of expert demonstrations. In all cases, we compare our algorithm with LeastSquare Policy Iteration (LSPI) [6], a popular API method, as well as with a state-of-the-art LfD method, Dataset Aggregation (DAgger) [1]. We also evaluate the algorithm?s practicality in a real robot path finding task, where there are few demonstrations, and exploration data is expensive due to limited time. In all of the experiments, our method outperformed LSPI, using fewer exploration data and exhibiting significantly less variance. Our method also significantly outperformed Dataset Aggregation (DAgger), a state-of-art LfD algorithm, in cases where the expert demonstrations are few or suboptimal. 2 Proposed Algorithm We consider a continuous-state, finite-action discounted MDP (X , A, P, R, ?), where X is a measurable state space, A is a finite set of actions, P : X ? A ? M(X ) is the transition model, R : X ? A ? M(R) is the reward model, and ? ? [0, 1) is a discount factor.1 Let r(x, a) = E [R(?|x, a)], and assume that r is uniformly bounded by Rmax . A measurable mapping ? : X ? A is called a policy. As usual, V ? and Q? denote the value and action-value function for ?, and V ? and Q? denote the corresponding value functions for the optimal policy ? ? [5]. Our algorithm is couched in the framework of API [7]. A standard API algorithm starts with an initial policy ?0 . At the (k + 1)th iteration, given a policy ?k , the algorithm approximately evaluates ? k , usually as an approximate fixed point of the Bellman operator T ?k : Q ? k ? T ?k Q ? k .2 ?k to find Q This is called the approximate policy evaluation step. Then, a new policy ?k+1 is computed, which ? k . There are several variants of API that mostly differ on how the approxis greedy with respect to Q imate policy evaluation is performed. Most methods attempt to exploit the structures in the value function [8, 9, 10, 11], but in some problems one might have extra information about the structure of good or optimal policies as well. This is precisely our case, since we have expert demonstrations. To develop the algorithm, we start with regularized Bellman error minimization, which is a common flavour of policy evaluation used in API. Suppose that we want to evaluate a policy ? given a batch of data DRL = {(Xi , Ai )}ni=1 containing n examples, and that the exact Bellman operator T ? is ? is computed as: known. Then, the new value function Q ? ? argmin kQ ? T ? Qk2 + ?J 2 (Q), Q n (1) Q?F |A| where F |A| is the set of action-value functions, the first term is the squared Bellman error evaluated on the data,3 J 2 (Q) is the regularization penalty, which can prevent overfitting when F |A| is complex, and ? > 0 is the regularization coefficient. The regularizer J(Q) measures the complexity of function Q. Different choices of F |A| and J lead to different notions of complexity, e.g., various definitions of smoothness, sparsity in a dictionary, etc. For example, F |A| could be a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and J its corresponding norm, i.e., J(Q) = kQkH . In addition to DRL , we have a set of expert examples DE = {(Xi , ?E (Xi ))}m i=1 , which we would like to take into account in the optimization process. The intuition behind our algorithm is that we want to use the expert examples to ?shape? the value function where they are available, while using the RL data to improve the policy everywhere else. Hence, even if we have few demonstration examples, we can still obtain good generalization everywhere due to the RL data. To incorporate the expert examples in the algorithm one might require that at the states Xi from DE , the demonstrated action ?E (Xi ) be optimal, which can be expressed as a large-margin constraint: 1 For a space ? with ?-algebra ?? , M(?) denotes the setPof all probability measures over ?? . ?k For discrete state spaces, a) + ? x0 P (x0 |x, a)Q(x0 , ?k (x0 )). Pn (T Q)(x, a) = r(x, 3 ? 2 ? 1 kQ ? T Qkn , n i=1 |Q(Xi , Ai ) ? (T Q)(Xi , Ai )|2 with (Xi , Ai ) from DRL . 2 2 Q(Xi , ?E (Xi )) ? maxa?A\?E (Xi ) Q(Xi , a) ? 1. However, this might not always be feasible, or desirable (if the expert itself is not optimal), so we add slack variables ?i ? 0 to allow occasional violations of the constraints (similar to soft vs. hard margin in the large-margin literature [12]). The policy evaluation step can then be written as the following constrained optimization problem: m ?? Q 2 argmin Q?F |A| ,??Rm + s.t. kQ ? T ? Qkn + ?J 2 (Q) + Q(Xi , ?E (Xi )) ? max a?A\?E (Xi ) ? X ?i m i=1 Q(Xi , a) ? 1 ? ?i . (2) for all (Xi , ?E (Xi )) ? DE The parameter ? balances the influence of the data obtained by the RL algorithm (generally by trialand-error) vs. the expert data. When ? = 0, we obtain (1), while when ? ? ?, we essentially solve a structured classification problem based on the expert?s data [13]. Note that the right side of the constraints could also be multiplied by a coefficient ?i > 0, to set the size of the acceptable margin between the Q(Xi , ?E (Xi )) and maxa?A\?E (Xi ) Q(Xi , a). Such a coefficient can then be set adaptively for different examples. However, this is beyond the scope of the paper. The above constrained optimization problem is equivalent to the following unconstrained one:   m  X ? ? argmin kQ ? T ? Qk2 + ?J 2 (Q) + ? Q 1 ? Q(X , ? (X )) ? max Q(X , a) (3) i E i i n a?A\?E (Xi ) m i=1 + Q?F |A| where [1 ? z]+ = max{0, 1 ? z} is the hinge loss. In many problems, we do not have access to the exact Bellman operator T ? , but only to samples DRL = {(Xi , Ai , Ri , Xi0 )}ni=1 with Ri ? R(?|Xi , Ai ) and Xi0 ? P (?|Xi , Ai ). In this case, one might want to use the empirical Bellman error kQ ? T?? Qk2n (with (T?? Q)(Xi , Ai ) , Ri + ?Q(Xi0 , ?(Xi0 )) for 1 ? i ? n) instead of kQ ? T ? Qk2n . It is known, however, that this is a biased estimate of the Bellman error, and does not lead to proper solutions [14]. One approach to address this issue is to use the modified Bellman error [14]. Another approach is to use Projected Bellman error, which leads to an LSTD-like algorithm [8]. Using the latter idea, we formulate our optimization as: m 2 ? X ? Q ? ? argmin Q ?i (4) Q ? h + ?J 2 (Q) + m i=1 n Q?F |A| ,??Rm +   2 ? 2 ? Q = argmin ? s.t. h ? T Q + ? J (h) h h n h?F |A| Q(Xi , ?E (Xi )) ? max a?A\?E (Xi ) Q(Xi , a) ? 1 ? ?i . for all (Xi , ?E (Xi )) ? DE ? Q , which might be different from ?. For some Here ?h > 0 is the regularization coefficient for h |A| ? Q can be found in closedchoices of the function space F and the regularizer J, the estimate h form. For example, one can use linear function approximators h(?) = ?(?)> u and Q(?) = ?(?)> w where u, w ? Rp are parameter vectors and ?(?) ? Rp is a vector of p linearly independent basis functions defined over the space of state-action pairs. Using L2 -regularization, J 2 (h) = u> u and J 2 (Q) = w> w, the best parameter vector u? can be obtained as a function of w by solving a ridge regression problem:  ?1 u? (w) = ?> ? + n?h I ?> (r + ??0 w), where ?, ?0 and r are the feature matrices and reward vector, respectively: ? = > > > (?(Z1 ), . . . , ?(Zn )) , ?0 = (?(Z10 ), . . . , ?(Zn0 )) , r = (R1 , . . . , Rn ) , with Zi = (Xi , Ai ) and Zi0 = (Xi0 , ?(Xi0 )) (for data belonging to DRL ). More generally, as discussed above, we might choose the function space F |A| to be a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and J to be its corresponding norm, which provides the flexibility of working with a nonparametric representation ? Q . We do not provide the detail of formulation here while still having a closed-form solution for h due to space constraints. The approach presented so far tackles the policy evaluation step of the API algorithm. As usual in API, we alternate this step with the policy improvement step (i.e., greedification). The resulting algorithm is called Approximate Policy Iteration with Demonstration (APID). 3 Up to this point, we have left open the problem of how the datasets DRL and DE are obtained. These datasets might be regenerated at each iteration, or they might be reused, depending on the availability of the expert and the environment. In practice, if the expert data is rare, DE will be a single fixed batch, but DRL could be increased, e.g., by running the most current policy (possibly with some exploration) to collect more data. The approach used should be tailored to the application. Note that the values of the regularization coefficients as well as ? should ideally change from iteration to iteration as a function of the number of samples as well as the value function Q?k . The choice of these parameters might be automated by model selection [15]. 3 Theoretical Analysis ? to the optimization In this section we focus on the k th iteration of APID and consider the solution Q ? Such an problem (2). The theoretical contribution is an upper bound on the true Bellman error of Q. upper bound allows us to use error propagation results [16, 17] to provide a performance guarantee on the value of the outcome policy ?K (the policy obtained after K iterations of the algorithm) compared to the optimal value function V ? . We make the following assumptions in our analysis. Assumption A1 (Sampling) DRL contains n independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples i.i.d. (Xi , Ai ) ? ?RL ? M(X ? A) where ?RL is a fixed distribution (possibly dependent on k) and i.i.d. the states in DE = {(Xi , ?E (Xi )}m i=1 are also drawn i.i.d. Xi ? ?E ? M(X ) from an expert distribution ?E . DRL and DE are independent from each other. We denote N = n + m. |A| Assumption A2 (RKHS) The function space function K : n F Pis an RKHS defined by a kernel o N |A| N (X ? A) ? (X ? A) ? R, i.e., F = z 7? i=1 wi K(z, Zi ) : w ? R with {Zi }N i=1 = DRL ? DE . We assume that supz?X ?A K (z, z) ? 1. Moreover, the function space F |A| is Qmax bounded. Assumption A3 (Function Approximation Property) For any policy ?, Q? ? F |A| . Assumption A4 (Expansion of Smoothness) For all Q ? F |A| , there exist constants 0 ? LR , LP < ?, depending only on the MDP and F |A| , such that for any policy ?, J(T ? Q) ? LR + ?LP J(Q). Assumption A5 (Regularizers) The regularizer functionals J : B(X ) ? R and J : B(X ? A) ? R are pseudo-norms on F and F |A| , respectively,4 and for all Q ? F |A| and a ? A, we have J(Q(?, a)) ? J(Q). Some of these assumptions are quite mild, while some are only here to simplify the analysis, but are not necessary for practical application of the algorithm. For example, the i.i.d. assumption A1 can be relaxed using independent block technique [18] or other techniques to handle dependent data, e.g., [19]. The method is certainly not specific to RKHS (Assumption A2), so other function spaces can be used without much change in the proof. Assumption A3 holds for ?rich? enough function spaces, e.g., universal kernels satisfy it for reasonable Q? . Assumption A4 ensures that if Q ? F |A| then T ? Q ? F |A| . It holds if F |A| is rich enough and the MDP is ?well-behaving?. Assumption A5 is mild and ensures that if we control the complexity of Q ? F |A| , the complexity of Q(?, a) ? F is controlled too. Finally, note that focusing on the case when we have access to the true Bellman operator simplifies the analysis while allowing us to gain more understanding about APID. We are now ready to state the main theorem of this paper. ? be the solution to the optimization problem (2) with the Theorem 1. For any fixed policy ?, let Q choice of ? > 0 and ? > 0. If Assumptions A1?A5 hold, for any n, m ? N and 0 < ? < 1, with probability at least 1 ? ? we have 4 B(X ) and B(X ? A) denote the space of bounded measurable functions defined on X and X ? A. Here we are slightly abusing notation as the same symbol is used for the regularizer over both spaces. However, this should not cause any confusion since the identity of the regularizer should always be clear from the context. 4 ? 2   ? 2 +? n + m (1 + ?LP ) Rmax ? ? ? ? + LR + Q ? T Q ? 64Qmax n ?RL ? ( "   # ? ? min 2?EX??E 1 ? Q (X, ?E (X)) ? max Q (X, a)) + ?J 2 (Q? ), a?A\?E (X) 2 kQ ?E ?T ? Q?E k2?RL ) 2 ?E ?J (Q ) " + 2?EX??E r + 4Q2max  ?E 1? Q 6 ln(4/?) 2 ln(4/?) + n n + (X, ?E (X)) ? ! +? max ?E Q a?A\?E (X)  # (X, a)) + + 20(1 + 2Qmax ) ln(8/?) . 3m The proof of this theorem is in the supplemental material. Let us now discuss some aspects of the result. The theorem guarantees that when the amount of RL data is large enough (n  m), we indeed minimize the Bellman error if we let ? ? 0. In that case, the upper bound would 2 be OP ( ?1n? ) + min{?J 2 (Q? ), 2 kQ?E ? T ? Q?E k?RL + ?J 2 (Q?E )}. Considering only the first term inside min, the upper bound is minimized by the choice of ? = [n1/3 J 4/3 (Q? )]?1 , which leads to OP (J 2/3 (Q? ) n?1/3 ) behaviour of the upper bound. The bound shows that the difficulty of learning depends on J(Q? ), which is the complexity of the true (but unknown) action-value function Q? measured according to J in F |A| . Note that Q? might be ?simple? with respect to some choice of function space/regularizer, but complex in another one. The choice of F |A| and J reflects prior knowledge regarding the function space and complexity measure that are suitable. When the number of samples n increases, we can afford to increase the size of the function space by making ? smaller. Since we have two terms inside min, the complexity of the problem might 2 actually depend on 2 kQ?E ? T ? Q?E k?RL +?J 2 (Q?E ), which is the Bellman error of Q?E (the true action-value function of the expert) according to ? plus the complexity of Q?E in F |A| . Roughly speaking, if ? is close to ?E , the Bellman error would be small. Two remarks are in order. First, this result does not provide a proper upper bound on the Bellman error when m dominates n. This is to be expected, because if ? is quite different from ?E and we do not have enough samples in DRL , we cannot guarantee that the Bellman error, which is measured according to ?, will be small. But, one can still provide a guarantee by choosing a large ? and using a margin-based error bound (cf. Section 4.1 of [20]). Second, this upper bound is not optimal, as we use a simple proof technique based on controlling the supremum of the empirical process. More advanced empirical processes techniques can be used to obtain a faster error rate (cf. [12]). 4 Experiments We evaluate APID on a simulated domain, as well as a real robot path-finding task. In the simulated environment, we compare APID against other benchmarks under varying availability and optimality of the expert demonstrations. In the real robot task, we evaluate the practicality of deploying APID on a live system, especially when DRL and DE are both expensive to obtain. 4.1 Car Brake Control Simulation In the vehicle brake control simulation [21], the agent?s goal is reach a target velocity, then maintain that target. It can either press the acceleration pedal or the brake pedal, but not both simultaneously. A state is represented by four continuous-valued features: target and current velocities, current positions of brake pedal and acceleration pedal. Given a state, the learned policy has to output one of five actions: acceleration up, acceleration down, brake up, brake down, do nothing. The reward is ?10 times the error in velocity. The initial velocity is set to 2m/s, and the target velocity is set to 7m/s. The expert was implemented using the dynamics between the pedal pressure and output velocity, from which we calculate the optimal velocity at each state. We added random noise to the dynamics to simulate a realistic scenario, in which the output velocity is governed by factors such as friction and wind. The agent has no knowledge of the dynamics, and receives only DE and DRL . For all experiments, we used a linear Radial Basis Function (RBF) approximator for the value function and CVX, a package for specifying and solving convex programs [22], to solve the optimization 5 20 10 10 0 0 ?10 ?10 Average Rewards Average Rewards 20 ?20 APID LSPI Supervised ?30 ?40 ?20 ?30 ?40 ?50 ?50 ?60 ?60 ?70 ?70 ?80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ?80 10 Number of Iterations APID LSPI Supervised 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of Iterations (a) (b) Figure 1: (a) Average reward with m = 15 optimal demonstrations. (b) Average reward with m = 100 sub-optimal demonstrations. Each iteration adds 500 new RL data to APID and LSPI, while the expert data stays the same. First iteration has n = 500 ? m for APID. LSPI treats all the data at this iteration RL data. ? to 1 if the expert is optimal and 0.01 otherwise. The regularization paramproblem (4). We set m ? eter was set according to 1/ n + m. We averaged results over 10 runs and computed confidence intervals as well. We compare APID with the regularized version of LSPI [6] in all the experiments. Depending on the availability of expert data, we either compare APID with the standard supervised LfD, or DAgger [1], a state-of-the-art LfD algorithm that has strong theoretical guarantees and good empirical performance when the expert is optimal. DAgger is designed to query for more demonstrations at each iteration; then, it aggregates all demonstrations and trains a new policy. The number of queries in DAgger increases linearly with the task horizon. For Dagger and supervised LfD, we use random forests to train the policy. We first consider the case with little but optimal expert data, with task horizon 1000. At each iteration, the agent gathers more RL data using a random policy. In this case, shown in Figure 1a, LSPI performs worse than APID on average, and it also has much higher variance, especially when DRL is small. This is consistent with empirical results in [6], in which LSPI showed significant variance even for simple tasks. In the first iteration, APID has moderate variance, but it is quickly reduced in the next iteration. This is due to the fact that expert constraints impose a particular shape to the value function, as noted in Section 2. The supervised LfD performs the worst, as the amount of expert data is insufficient. Results for the case in which the agent has more but sub-optimal expert data are shown in Figure 1b. Here, with probability 0.5 the expert gives a random action rather than the optimal action. Compared to supervised LfD, APID and LSPI are both able to overcome sub-optimality in the expert?s behaviour to achieve good performance, by leveraging the RL data. Next, we consider the case of abundant demonstrations from a sub-optimal expert, who gives random actions with probability 0.25, to characterize the difference between APID and DAgger. The task horizon is reduced to 100, due to the number of demonstrations required by DAgger. As can be seen in Figure 2a, the sub-optimal demonstrations cause DAgger to diverge, because it changes the policy at each iteration, based on the newly aggregated sub-optimal demonstrations. APID, on the other hand, is able to learn a better policy by leveraging DRL . APID also outperforms LSPI (which uses the same DRL ), by generalizing from DE via function approximation. This result illustrates well APID?s robustness to sub-optimal expert demonstrations. Figure 2b shows the result for the case of optimal and abundant demonstrations. In this case, which fits Dagger?s assumptions, the performance of APID is on par with that of DAgger. 4.2 Real Robot Path Finding We now evaluate the practicality of APID on a real robot path-finding task and compare it with LSPI and supervised LfD, using only one demonstrated trajectory. We do not assume that the expert is optimal (and abundant), and therefore do not include DAgger, which was shown to perform poorly for this case. In this task, the robot needs to get to the goal in an unmapped environment by learning 6 ?4 ?6 ?6 ?8 ?8 Average Rewards Average Rewards ?4 ?10 APID LSPI DAgger ?12 ?14 ?10 ?14 ?16 ?16 ?18 ?18 ?20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ?20 11 APID LSPI DAgger ?12 1 2 3 Number of Iterations 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Number of Iterations (a) (b) Figure 2: (a) Performance with a sub-optimal expert. (b) Performance with an optimal expert. Each iteration (X-axis) adds 100 new expert data points to APID and DAgger. We use n = 3000 ? m for APID. LSPI treats all data as RL data. to avoid obstacles. We use an iRobot Create equipped with Kinect RGB-depth sensor and a laptop. We encode the Kinect observations with 1 ? 3 grid cells (each 1m ? 1m). The robot also has three bumpers to detect a collision from the front, left, and right. Figures 3a and 3b show a picture of the robot and its environment. In order to reach the goal, the robot needs to turn left to avoid a first box and wall on the right, while not turning too much, to avoid the couch. Next, the robot must turn right to avoid a second box, but make sure not to turn too much or too soon to avoid colliding with the wall or first box. Then, the robot needs to get into the hallway, turn right, and move forward to reach the goal position; the goal position is 6m forward and 1.5m right from the initial position. The state space is represented by 3 non-negative integer features to represent number of point clouds produced by Kinect in each grid cell, and 2 continuous features (robot position). The robot has three discrete actions: turn left, turn right, and move forward. The reward is minus the distance to the goal, but if the robot?s front bumper is pressed and the robot moves forward, it receives a penalty equal to 2 times the current distance to the goal. If the robot?s left bumper is pressed and the robot does not turn right, and vice-versa, it also receives 2 times the current distance to the goal. The robot outputs actions at a rate of 1.7Hz. We started from a single trajectory of demonstration, then incrementally added only RL data. The number of data points added varied at each iteration, but the average was 160 data points, which is around 1.6 minutes of exploration using -greedy exploration policy (decreasing  over iterations). ? was set to 0.9, then For 11 iterations, the training time was approximately 18 minutes. Initially, m it was decreased as new data was acquired. To evaluate the performance of each algorithm, we ran each iteration?s policy for a task horizon of 100 (? 1min); we repeated each iteration 5 times, to compute the mean and standard deviation. As shown in Figure 3c, APID outperformed both LSPI and supervised LfD; in fact, these two methods could not reach the goal. The supervised LfD kept running into the couch, as state distributions of expert and robot differed, as noted in [1]. LSPI had a problem due to exploring unnecessary states; specifically, the -greedy policy of LSPI explored regions of state space that were not relevant in learning the optimal plan, such as the far left areas from the initial position. -greedy policy of APID, on the other hand, was able to leverage the expert data to efficiently explore the most relevant states and avoid unnecessary collisions. For example, it learned to avoid the first box in the first iteration, then explored states near the couch, where supervised LfD failed. Table 1 gives the time it took for the robot to reach the goal (within 1.5m). Only iterations 9, 10 and 11 of APID reached the goal. Note that the times achieved by APID (iteration 11) are similar to the expert. Table 1: Average time to reach the goal Average Vals Time To Goal(s) Demonstration 35.9 APID-9th 38.4 ? 0.81 7 APID-10th 37.7 ? 0.84 APID-11th 36.1 ? 0.24 7 APID LSPI supervised Distance to the Goal 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Number of Iterations (a) (b) (c) Figure 3: (a) Picture of iRobot Create equipped with Kinect. (b) Top-down view of the environment. The star represents the goal, the circle represents the initial position, black lines indicate walls, and the three grid cells represent the vicinity of the Kinect. (c) Distance to the goal for LSPI, APID and supervised LfD with random forest. 5 Discussion We proposed an algorithm that learns from limited demonstrations by leveraging a state-of-the-art API method. To our knowledge, this is the first LfD algorithm that learns from few and/or suboptimal demonstrations. Most LfD methods focus on solving the issue of violation of i.i.d. data assumptions by changing the policy slowly [23], by reducing the problem to online learning [1], by querying the expert [2] or by obtaining corrections from the expert [3]. These methods all assume that the expert is optimal or close-to-optimal, and demonstration data is abundant. The TAMER system [24] uses rewards provided by the expert (and possibly blended with MDP rewards), instead of assuming that an action choice is provided. There are a few Inverse RL methods that do not assume optimal experts [25, 26], but their focus is on learning the reward function rather than on planning. Also, these methods require a model of the system dynamics, which is typically not available in practice. In the simulated environment, we compared our method with DAgger (a state-of-the-art LfD method) as well as with a popular API algorithm, LSPI. We considered four scenarios: very few but optimal demonstrations, a reasonable number of sub-optimal demonstrations, abundant sub-optimal demonstrations, and abundant optimal demonstrations. In the first three scenarios, which are more realistic, our method outperformed the others. In the last scenario, in which the standard LfD assumptions hold, APID performed just as well as DAgger. In the real robot path-finding task, our method again outperformed LSPI and supervised LfD. LSPI suffered from inefficient exploration, and supervised LfD was affected by the violation of the i.i.d. assumption, as pointed out in [1]. We note that APID accelerated API by utilizing demonstration data. Previous approaches [27, 28] accelerated policy search, e.g. by using LfD to find initial policy parameters. In contrast, APID leverages the expert data to shape the policy throughout the planning. The most similar to our work, in terms of goals, is [29], where the agent is given multiple suboptimal trajectories, and infers a hidden desired trajectory using Expectation Maximization and Kalman Filtering. However, their approach is less general, as it assumes a particular noise model in the expert data, whereas APID is able to handle demonstrations that are sub-optimal non-uniformly along the trajectory. In future work, we will explore more applications of APID and study its behaviour with respect to ?i . For instance, in safety-critical applications, large ?i could be used at critical states. Acknowledgements Funding for this work was provided by the NSERC Canadian Field Robotics Network, Discovery Grants Program, and Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, as well as by the CIHR (CanWheel team), and the FQRNT (Regroupements strat?egiques INTER et REPARTI). 8 References [1] S. Ross, G. Gordon, and J. A. Bagnell. 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Ross and J. A. Bagnell. Efficient reductions for imitation learning. In AISTATS, 2010. 8 [24] W. B Knox and P. Stone. Reinforcement learning from simultaneous human and MDP reward. In AAMAS, 2012. 8 [25] D. Ramachandran and E. Amir. Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning. In IJCAI, 2007. 8 [26] B. D. Ziebart, A. Maas, J. A. Bagnell, and A. K. Dey. Maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning. In AAAI, 2008. 8 [27] A. J. Ijspeert, J. Nakanishi, and S. Schaal. Learning attractor landscapes for learning motor primitives. In NIPS 15, 2002. 8 [28] J. Kober and J. Peters. Policy search for motor primitives in robotics. Machine Learning, 84(1-2):171? 203, 2011. 8 [29] A. Coates, P. Abbeel, and A. Y. Ng. Learning for control from multiple demonstrations. In ICML, 2008. 8 9
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Distributed Exploration in Multi-Armed Bandits Eshcar Hillel Yahoo Labs, Haifa [email protected] Zohar Karnin Yahoo Labs, Haifa [email protected] Tomer Koren? Technion ? Israel Inst. of Technology [email protected] Ronny Lempel Yahoo Labs, Haifa [email protected] Oren Somekh Yahoo Labs, Haifa [email protected] Abstract We study exploration in Multi-Armed Bandits in a setting where k players collaborate in order to identify an ?-optimal arm. Our motivation comes from recent employment of bandit algorithms in computationally intensive, large-scale applications. Our results demonstrate a non-trivial tradeoff between the number of arm pulls required by each of the players, and the amount of communication between them. In particular, our main result shows that ? by allowing the k players to communicate only once, they are able to learn k times faster than ? a single player. That is, distributing learning to k players gives rise to a factor k parallel speedup. We complement this result with a lower bound showing this is in general the best possible. On the other extreme, we present an algorithm that achieves the ideal factor k speed-up in learning performance, with communication only logarithmic in 1/?. 1 Introduction Over the past years, multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have been employed in an increasing amount of large-scale applications. MAB algorithms rank results of search engines [23, 24], choose between stories or ads to showcase on web sites [2, 8], accelerate model selection and stochastic optimization tasks [21, 22], and more. In many of these applications, the workload is simply too high to be handled by a single processor. In the web context, for example, the sheer volume of user requests and the high rate at which they arrive, require websites to use many front-end machines that run in multiple data centers. In the case of model selection tasks, a single evaluation of a certain model or configuration might require considerable computation time, so that distributing the exploration process across several nodes may result with a significant gain in performance. In this paper, we study such large-scale MAB problems in a distributed environment where learning is performed by several independent nodes that may take actions and observe rewards in parallel. Following recent MAB literature [14, 3, 15, 18], we focus on the problem of identifying a ?good? bandit arm with high confidence. In this problem, we may repeatedly choose one arm (corresponding to an action) and observe a reward drawn from a probability distribution associated with that arm. Our goal is to find an arm with an (almost) optimal expected reward, with as few arm pulls as possible (that is, minimize the simple regret [7]). Our objective is thus explorative in nature, and in ? Most of this work was done while the author was at Yahoo Labs, Haifa. 1 particular we do not mind the incurred costs or the involved regret. This is indeed the natural goal in many applications, such as in the case of model selection problems mentioned above. In our setup, a distributed strategy is evaluated by the number of arm pulls per node required for the task, which correlates with the parallel speed-up obtained by distributing the learning process. We abstract a distributed MAB system as follows. In our model, there are k players that correspond to k independent machines in a cluster. The players are presented with a set of arms, with a common goal of identifying a good arm. Each player receives a stream of queries upon each it chooses an arm to pull. This stream is usually regulated by some load balancer ensuring the load is roughly divided evenly across players. To collaborate, the players may communicate with each other. We assume that the bandwidth of the underlying network is limited, so that players cannot simply share every piece of information. Also, communicating over the network might incur substantial latencies, so players should refrain from doing so as much as possible. When measuring communication of a certain multi-player protocol we consider the number of communication rounds it requires, where in a round of communication each player broadcasts a single message (of arbitrary size) to all other players. Round-based models are natural in distributed learning scenarios, where frameworks such as MapReduce [11] are ubiquitous. What is the tradeoff between the learning performance of the players, and the communication between them? At one extreme, if all players broadcast to each other each and every arm reward as it is observed, they can simply simulate the decisions of a serial, optimal algorithm. However, the communication load of this strategy is of course prohibitive. At the other extreme, if the players never communicate, each will suffer the learning curve of a single player, thereby avoiding any possible speed-up the distributed system may provide. Our goal in this work is to better understand this tradeoff between inter-player communication and learning performance. Considering the high cost of communication, perhaps the simplest and most important question that arises is how well can the players learn while keeping communication to the very minimum. More specifically, is there a non-trivial strategy by which the players can identify a ?good? arm while communicating only once, at the end of the process? As we discuss later on, this is a non-trivial question. On?the positive side, we present a k-player algorithm that attains an asymptotic parallel speed-up of k factor, as compared to the conventional, serial setting. In fact, our approach demonstrates how to convert virtually any serial exploration strategy to a distributed algorithm enjoying such speed-up. Ideally, one could hope for a factor k speed-up in learning performance; ? however, we show a lower bound on the required number of pulls in this case, implying that our k speed-up is essentially optimal. At the other end of the trade-off, we investigate how much communication is necessary for obtaining the ideal factor k parallel speed-up. We present a k-player strategy achieving such speed-up, with communication only logarithmic in 1/?. As a corollary, we derive an algorithm that demonstrates an explicit trade-off between the number of arm pulls and the amount of inter-player communication. 1.1 Related Work Recently there has been an increasing interest in distributed and collaborative learning problems. In the MAB literature, several recent works consider multi-player MAB scenarios in which players actually compete with each other, either on arm-pulls resources [15] or on the rewards received [19]. In contrast, we study a collaborative multi-player problem and investigate how sharing observations helps players achieve their common goal. The related work of Kanade et al. [17] in the context of non-stochastic (i.e. adversarial) experts also deals with a collaborative problem in a similar distributed setup, and examine the trade-off between communication and the cumulative regret. Another line of recent work was focused on distributed stochastic optimization [13, 1, 12] and distributed PAC models [6, 10, 9], investigating the involved communication trade-offs. The techniques developed there, however, are inherently ?batch? learning methods and thus are not directly applicable to our MAB problem which is online in nature. Questions involving network topology [13, 12] and delays [1] are relevant to our setup as well; however, our present work focuses on establishing the first non-trivial guarantees in a distributed collaborative MAB setting. 2 2 Problem Setup and Statement of Results In our model of the Distributed Multi-Armed Bandit problem, there are k ? 1 individual players. The players are given n arms, enumerated by [n] := {1, 2, . . . , n}. Each arm i ? [n] is associated with a reward, which is a [0, 1]-valued random variable with expectation pi . For convenience, we assume that the arms are ordered by their expected rewards, that is p1 ? p2 ? ? ? ? ? pn . At every time step t = 1, 2, . . . , T , each player pulls one arm of his choice and observes an independent sample of its reward. Each player may choose any of the arms, regardless of the other players and their actions. At the end of the game, each player must commit to a single arm. In a communication round, that may take place at any predefined time step, each player may broadcast a message to all other players. While we do not restrict the size of each message, in a reasonable implementation a ? message should not be larger than O(n) bits. In the best-arm identification version of the problem, the goal of a multi-player algorithm given some target confidence level ? > 0, is that with probability at least 1 ? ? all players correctly identify the best arm (i.e. the arm having the maximal expected reward). For simplicity, we assume in this setting that the best arm is unique. Similarly, in the (?, ?)-PAC variant the goal is that each player finds an ?-optimal (or ??-best?) arm, that is an arm i with pi ? p1 ? ?, with high probability. In this paper we focus on the more general (?, ?)-PAC setup, which also includes best-arm identification for ? = 0. We use the notation ?i := p1 ? pi to denote the suboptimality gap of arm i, and occasionally use ?? := ?2 for denoting the minimal gap. In the best-arm version of the problem, where we assume that the best arm is unique, we have ?i > 0 for all i > 1. When dealing with the (?, ?)-PAC setup, we also consider the truncated gaps ??i := max{?i , ?}. In the context of MAB problems, we are interested in deriving distribution-dependent bounds, namely, bounds that are stated as a function ? notation in our bounds of ?, ? and also the distribution-specific values ? := (?2 , . . . , ?n ). The O hides polylogarithmic factors in n, k, ?, ?, and also in ?2 , . . . , ?n . In the case of serial exploration algorithms (i.e., when there is only one player), the lower bounds of Mannor and Tsitsiklis [20] and ? ? ) pulls are necessary for identifying an ?-arm, where Audibert et al. [3] show that in general ?(H H? := n X i=2 1 . (??i )2 (1) Intuitively, the hardness of the task is therefore captured by the quantity H? , which is roughly the number of arm pulls needed to find an ?-best arm with a reasonable probability; see also [3] for a discussion. Our goal in this work is therefore to establish bounds in the distributed model that are expressed as a function of H? , in the same vein of the bounds known in the classic MAB setup. 2.1 Baseline approaches We now discuss several baseline approaches for the problem, starting with our main focus?the single round setting. The first obvious approach, already mentioned earlier, is the no-communication strategy: just let each player explore the arms in isolation of the other players, following an independent instance of some serial strategy; at the end of the executions, all players hold an ?-best arm. ? ? ) pulls per Clearly, this approach performs poorly in terms of learning performance, needing ?(H player in the worst case and not leading to any parallel speed-up. Another straightforward approach is to employ a majority vote among the players: let each player independently identify an arm, and choose the arm having most of the votes (alternatively, at least half of the votes). However, this approach does not lead to any improvement in performance: for this vote to work, each player has to solve the problem correctly with reasonable probability, which ? ? ) pulls of each. Even if we somehow split the arms between players and let already require ?(H each player explore a share of them, a majority vote would still fail since those players getting the ? ? ) times?a small MAB instance might be as hard as the ?good? arms might have to pull arms ?(H full-sized problem (in terms of the complexity measure H? ). When considering algorithms employing multiple communication rounds, we use an ideal simulated serial algorithm (i.e., a full-communication approach) as our baseline. This approach is of course prohibited in our context, but is able to achieve the optimal parallel speed-up, linear in the number of players k. 3 2.2 Our results We now discuss our approach and overview our algorithmic results. These are summarized in Table 1 below, that compares the different algorithms in terms of parallel speed-up and communication. Our approach for the one-round case is based on the idea of majority vote. For the best-arm identifi? cation task, our observation is that by letting each player explore a smaller set of n/ k arms chosen ? at random and choose one of them as ?best?, about k of the players would come up with the global best arm. This (partial) consensus on a single arm is a key aspect in our approach, since it allows the players to identify the correct best arm among ? the votes of all k players, after sharing information only once. Our approach leads to a factor k parallel speed-up which, as we demonstrate in our lower bound, is the optimal factor in this setting. Although our goal here is pure exploration, in our algorithms each player follows an explore-exploit strategy. The idea is that a player should sample his recommended arm as much as his budget permits, even if it was easy to identify in his smallsized problem. This way we can guarantee that the top arms are sampled to a sufficient precision by the time each of the players has to choose a single best arm. The algorithm for the (?, ?)-PAC setup is similar, but its analysis is more challenging. As mentioned above, an agreement on a single arm is essential for a vote to work. Here, however, there might be several ?-best arms, so arriving at a consensus on a single one is more difficult. Nonetheless, by examining two different regimes, namely when there are ?many? ?-best arms ? and when there are ?few? of them, our analysis shows that a vote can still work and achieve the k multiplicative speed-up. In the case of multiple communication rounds, we present a distributed elimination-based algorithm that discards arms right after each communication round. Between rounds, we share the work load between players uniformly. We show that the number of such rounds can be reduced to as low as O(log(1/?)), by eliminating all 2?r -suboptimal arms in the r?th round. A similar idea was employed in [4] for improving the regret bound of UCB with respect to the parameters ?i . We also use this technique to develop an algorithm that performs only R communication rounds, for any given parameter R ? 1, that achieves a slightly worse multiplicative ?2/R k speed-up. S ETTING O NE -ROUND M ULTI -ROUND A LGORITHM No-Communication Majority Vote Algorithm 1,2 Serial (simulated) Algorithm 3 S PEED - UP 1 1 ? k k k ?2/R ? k Algorithm 3? C OMMUNICATION none 1 round 1 round every time step O(log 1? ) rounds R rounds Table 1: Summary of baseline approaches and our results. The speed-up results are asymptotic (logarithmic factors are omitted). 3 One Communication Round This section considers the most basic variant of the multi-player MAB problem, where each player is only allowed a single transmission, when finishing her queries. For the clarity of exposition, we first consider the best-arm identification setting in Section 3.1. Section 3.2 deals with the (?, ?)-PAC setup. We demonstrate the tightness of our result in Section 3.3 with a lower bound for the required budget of arm pulls in this setting. Our algorithms in this section assume the availability of a serial algorithm A(A, ?), that given a set of arms A and target accuracy ?, identifies an ?-best arm in A with probability at least 2/3 using no more than X 1 |A| cA log ? (2) (??i )2 ?i i?A 4 arm pulls, for some constant cA > 1. For example, the Successive Elimination algorithm [14] and the Exp-Gap Elimination algorithm [18] provide a guarantee of this form. Essentially, any exploration strategy whose guarantee is expressed as a function of H? can be used as the procedure A, with technical modifications in our analysis. 3.1 Best-arm Identification Algorithm We now describe our one-round best-arm identification algorithm. For simplicity, we present a version matching ? = 1/3, meaning that the algorithm produces the correct arm with probability at least 2/3; we later explain how to extend it to deal with arbitrary values of ?. Our algorithm is akin to a majority vote among the multiple players, in which each player pulls arms in two stages. In the first E XPLORE stage, each player independently solves a ?smaller? MAB instance on a random subset of the arms using the exploration strategy A. In the second E XPLOIT stage, each player exploits the arm identified as ?best? in the first stage, and communicates that arm and its observed average reward. See Algorithm 1 below for a precise description. An appealing feature of our algorithm is that it requires each player to transmit a single message of constant size (up to logarithmic factors). In Theorem 3.1 we prove that Algorithm 1 indeed achieves the promised upper bound. Algorithm 1 O NE - ROUND B EST- ARM Theorem 3.1. Algorithm 1 identifies the best input time horizon T arm correctly with probability at least 2/3 us- output an arm ing no more than 1: for player j = 1 to k do ? ! 2: choose a subset Aj of 6n/ k arms unin X n 1 1 formly at random log O ? ? 2 ?i k i=2 ?i 3: E XPLORE: execute ij ? A(Aj , 0) using ? at most 12 T pulls (and halting the algorithm arm pulls per player, provided that 6 ? k ? early if necessary); n. The algorithm uses a single communicaif the algorithm fails to identify any arm or tion round, in which each player communicates does not terminate gracefully, let ij be an ? O(1) bits. arbitrary arm 4: E XPLOIT: pull arm ij for 12 T times and By repeating the algorithm O(log(1/?)) times let q?j be its average reward and taking the majority vote of the independent 5: communicate the numbers ij , q?j runs, we can amplify the success probability to 6: end for 1 ? ? for any given ? > 0. Note that we can 7: let ki be the number of players j with ij = i, ? still do that with one communication round (at and define A =P {i : ki > k} the end of all executions), but each player now 8: let p?i = (1/ki ) {j : ij =i} q?j for all i has to communicate O(log(1/?)) values1 . 9: return arg maxi?A p?i ; if the set A is empty, Theorem 3.2. There exists a k-player output an arbitrary arm.  al? ?1 Pn 1/?2 arm gorithm that given O i i=2 k pulls, identifies the best arm correctly with probability at least 1 ? ?. The algorithm uses a single communication round, in which each player communicates O(log(1/?)) numerical values. We now prove Theorem 3.1. We show that a budget T of samples (arm pulls) per player, where n 24cA X 1 n T ? ? ? ln , 2 ?i k i=2 ?i (3) suffices for the players to jointly identify the best arm i? with the desired probability. Clearly, this would imply the bound stated in Theorem 3.1. We note that we did not try to optimize the constants in the above expression. We begin by analyzing the E XPLORE phase of the algorithm. Our first lemma shows that each player chooses the global best arm and identifies it as the local best arm with sufficiently large probability. p ? In fact, by letting each player pick a slightly larger subset of O( log(1/?) ? n/ k) arms, we can amplify the success probability to 1 ? ? without needing to communicate more than 2 values per player. However, this approach only works when k = ?(log(1/?)). 1 5 Lemma 3.3. When (3) holds, each player ? identifies the (global) best arm correctly after the E X PLORE phase with probability at least 2/ k. We next address the E XPLOIT phase. The next simple lemma shows that the popular arms (i.e. those selected by many players) are estimated to a sufficient precision. Lemma 3.4. Provided that (3) holds, we have |? pi ? pi | ? 12 ?? for all arms i ? A with probability at least 5/6. Due to lack of space, the proofs of the above lemmas are omitted and can be found in [16]. We can now prove Theorem 3.1. Proof (of Theorem 3.1). Let us first show that with probability at least 5/6, the best arm i is contained in the set A. To this end, notice that ki? is the sum of k i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables {Ij }j where Ij is the indicator of whether?player j chooses arm i? after the E XPLORE phase. By?Lemma 3.3 we have that E[I ? j ] ? 2/ k for all j, hence by Hoeffding?s inequality, Pr[ki? ? k] ? Pr[ki? ? E[ki? ] ? ? k] ? exp(?2k/k) ? 1/6 which implies that i? ? A with probability at least 5/6. Next, note that with probability at least 5/6 the arm i ? A having the highest empirical reward p?i is the one with the highest expected reward pi . Indeed, this follows directly from Lemma 3.4 that shows that with probability at least 5/6, for all arms i ? A the estimate p?i is within 21 ? of the true bias pi . Hence, via a union bound we conclude that with probability at least 2/3, the best arm is in A and has the highest empirical reward. In other words, with probability at least 2/3 the algorithm outputs the best arm i? . 3.2 (?, ?)-PAC Algorithm We now present an algorithm whose purpose is to recover an ?-optimal arm. Here, there might be more than one ?-best arm, so each ?successful? player might come up with a different ?-best arm. Nevertheless, our analysis below shows that with high probability, a subset of the players can still agree on a single ?-best arm, which makes it possible to identify it among the votes of all players. Our algorithm is described in Algorithm 2, and the following theorem states its guarantees. Theorem 3.5. Algorithm 2 identifies a 2?-best arm with probability at least 2/3 using no more than ! n 1 X 1 n O ? ? log ? ?i k i=2 (??i )2 ? arm pulls per player, provided that 24 ? k ? n. The algorithm uses a single communication ? round, in which each player communicates O(1) bits. Before proving the theorem, we first state several key lemmas. In the following, let n? and n2? denote the number?of ?-best and 2?-best arms respectively. Our analysis considers two different ? 1 1 regimes: n2? ? 50 k and n2? > 50 k, and shows that in any case, T ? n 400cA X 1 24n ? ln ? ? 2 ?i k i=2 (?i ) (4) suffices for identifying a 2?-best arm with the desired probability. Clearly, this implies the bound stated in Theorem 3.5. The first lemma shows that at least one of the players is able to find an ?-best arm. As we later show, this is sufficient for the success of the algorithm in case there are many 2?-best arms. Lemma 3.6. When (4) holds, at least one player successfully identifies an ?-best arm in the E X PLORE phase, with probability at least 5/6. The next lemma is more refined and states that in case there are few 2?-best arms, the probability of each player to successfully identify an ?-best arm grows linearly with n? . ? 1 Lemma 3.7. Assume that n2? ? 50 k. When (4) holds, each player identifies an ?-best arm in the ? E XPLORE phase, with probability at least 2n? / k. 6 The last lemma we need analyzes the accuracy Algorithm 2 O NE - ROUND ?- ARM of the estimated rewards of arms in the set A. input time horizon T , accuracy ? Lemma 3.8. With probability at least 5/6, we output an arm have |? pi ? pi | ? ?/2 for all arms i ? A. 1: for player j = 1 to k do ? 2: choose a subset Aj of 12n/ k arms uniFor the proofs of the above lemmas, refer to formly at random [16]. We now turn to prove Theorem 3.5. 3: E XPLORE: execute ij ? A(Aj , ?) using at most 12 T pulls (and halting the algorithm Proof. We shall prove that with probability 5/6 early if necessary); the set A contains at least one ?-best arm. This if the algorithm fails to identify any arm or would complete the proof, since Lemma 3.8 asdoes not terminate gracefully, let ij be an sures that with probability 5/6, the estimates p?i arbitrary arm of all arms i ? A are at most ?/2-away from the 4: E XPLOIT : pull arm ij for 12 T times, and true reward pi , and in turn implies (via a union let q?j be the average reward bound) that with probability 2/3 the arm i ? A communicate the numbers ij , q?j having the maximal empirical reward p?i must 5: 6: end for be a 2?-best arm. 7: let ki be the number of players j with ij = i ? P 1 First, consider the case n2? > 50 k. Lemma 8: let ti = 12 ki T and p?i = (1/ki ) {j : ij =i} q?j 3.6 shows that with probability 5/6 there exists for all i a player j that identifies an ?-best arm ij . Since 9: define A = {i ? [n] : ti ? (1/?2 ) ln(12n)} for at least n2? arms ?i ? 2?, we have 10: return arg maxi?A p?i ; if the set A is empty, 400 n2? ? 1 24n output an arbitrary arm. tij ? 12 T ? ? ? ln 2? 2 k (2?)2 1 ? 2 ln(12n) , ? that is, ij ? A. ? 1 Next, consider the case n2? ? 50 k. Let N denote the number of players that identified some ?-best arm. The random variable N is a sum of Bernoulli random variables {Ij }j ? where Ij indicates whether player j identified some ?-best arm. By Lemma 3.7, E[I ] ? 2n / k and thus ? ? j ? 2 by Hoeffding?s inequality, Pr[N < n? ?k] = Pr[N ? E[N ] ? ?n? k] ? exp(?2n? ) ? 1/6 . That is, with probability 5/6, at least n? k players found an ?-best arm. A pigeon-hole argument ? now shows that in this case there exists an ?-best arm i? selected by at least k players. Hence, with probability 5/6 the number of samples of this arm collected in the E XPLOIT phase is at least ? ti? ? kT /2 > (1/?2 ) ln(12n), which means that i? ? A. 3.3 Lower Bound The following theorem suggests that ? in general, for identifying the best arm k players achieve a ? k) when allowing one transmission per player (at the end of multiplicative speed-up of at most O( the game). Clearly, this also implies that a similar lower bound holds in the PAC setup, and proves that our algorithmic results for the one-round case are essentially tight. Theorem 3.9. For any k-player strategy that uses a single round of communication, there exist rewards p1 , . . . , pn ? [0, 1] and integer T such that ? ? each individual player must use at least T / k arm pulls for them to collectively identify the best arm with probability at least 2/3; ? ) pulls for identifying the best arm ? there exist a single-player algorithm that needs at most O(T with probability at least 2/3. The proof of the theorem is omitted due to space constraints and can be found in [16]. 4 Multiple Communication Rounds In this section we establish an explicit tradeoff between the performance of a multi-player algorithm and the number of communication rounds it uses, in terms of the accuracy ?. Our observation is that 7 by allowing O(log(1/?)) rounds of communication, it is possible to achieve the optimal speedup of factor k. That is, we do not gain any improvement in learning performance by allowing more than O(log(1/?)) rounds. Our algorithm is given in Algorithm 3. The idea is to eliminate in each round r (i.e., right Algorithm 3 M ULTI -ROUND ?-A RM after the rth communication round) all 2?r - input (?, ?) suboptimal arms. We accomplish this by let- output an arm 1: initialize S0 ? [n], r ? 0, t0 ? 0 ting each player sample uniformly all remain2: repeat ing arms and communicate the results to other 3: set r ? r + 1 players. Then, players are able to eliminate 4: let ?r ? 2?r , tr ? (2/k?2r ) ln(4nr2 /?) suboptimal arms with high confidence. If for player j = 1 to k do each such round is successful, after log2 (1/?) 5: 6: sample each arm i ? Sr?1 for tr ? tr?1 rounds only ?-best arms survive. Theorem 4.1 times below bounds the number of arm pulls used by 7: let p?rj,i be the average reward of arm i (in this algorithm (a proof can be found in [16]). all rounds so far of player j) Theorem 4.1. With probability at least 1 ? ?, 8: communicate the numbers p?rj,1 , . . . , p?rj,n Algorithm 3 9: end for Pk ? identifies the optimal arm using 10: let p?ri = (1/k) j=1 p?rj,i for all i ? Sr?1 ,  ! and let p?r? = maxi?Sr?1 p?ri n 1 X 1 n 1 11: set Sr ? Sr?1 \{i ? Sr?1 : p?ri < p?r? ??r } O ? log log ? k i=2 (??i )2 ? ?i 12: until ?r ? ?/2 or |Sr | = 1 13: return an arm from Sr arm pulls per player; ? terminates after at most 1 + dlog2 (1/?)e rounds of communication (or after 1 + dlog2 (1/?? )e rounds for ? = 0). By properly tuning the elimination thresholds ?r of Algorithm 3 in accordance with the target accuracy ?, we can establish an explicit trade-off between the number of communication rounds and the number of arm pulls each player needs. In particular, we can design a multi-player algorithm that terminates after at most R communication rounds, for any given parameter R > 0. This, however, comes at the cost of a compromise in learning performance as quantified in the following corollary. Corollary 4.2. Given a parameter R > 0, set ?r ? ?r/R for all r ? 1 in Algorithm 3. With probability at least 1 ? ?, the modified algorithm ? ?2/R /k) ? Pn (1/?? )2 ) arm pulls per player; ? identifies an ?-best arm using O((? i i=2 ? terminates after at most R rounds of communication. 5 Conclusions and Further Research We have considered a collaborative MAB exploration problem, in which several independent players explore a set of arms with a common goal, and obtained the first non-trivial results in such setting. Our main results apply for the specifically interesting regime where each of the players is allowed a single transmission; this setting fits naturally to common distributed frameworks such as MapReduce. An interesting open question in this context is whether one can obtain a strictly better speed-up result (which, in particular, is independent of ?) by allowing more than?a single round. Even when allowing merely two communication rounds, it is unclear whether the k speed-up can be improved. Intuitively, the difficulty here is that in the second phase of a reasonable strategy each player should focus on the arms that excelled in the first phase; this makes the sub-problems being faced in the second phase as hard as the entire MAB instance, in terms of the quantity H? . Nevertheless, we expect our one-round approach to serve as a building-block in the design of future distributed exploration algorithms, that are applicable in more complex communication models. An additional interesting problem for future research is how to translate our results to the regret minimization setting. In particular, it would be nice to see a conversion of algorithms like UCB [5] to a distributed setting. In this respect, perhaps a more natural distributed model is a one resembling that of Kanade et al. [17], that have established a regret vs. communication trade-off in the nonstochastic setting. 8 References [1] A. Agarwal and J. C. Duchi. Distributed delayed stochastic optimization. In NIPS, pages 873?881, 2011. [2] D. Agarwal, B.-C. Chen, P. Elango, N. Motgi, S.-T. Park, R. Ramakrishnan, S. Roy, and J. Zachariah. Online models for content optimization. In NIPS, pages 17?24, December 2008. [3] J.-Y. Audibert, S. Bubeck, and R. Munos. Best arm identification in multi-armed bandits. In COLT, pages 41?53, 2010. [4] P. Auer and R. Ortner. UCB revisited: Improved regret bounds for the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. Periodica Mathematica Hungarica, 61(1-2):55?65, 2010. [5] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and P. Fischer. Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem. Machine learning, 47(2):235?256, 2002. [6] M. Balcan, A. Blum, S. Fine, and Y. Mansour. Distributed learning, communication complexity and privacy. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1204.3514, 2012. [7] S. Bubeck, R. Munos, and G. Stoltz. Pure exploration in multi-armed bandits problems. In Algorithmic Learning Theory, pages 23?37. Springer, 2009. [8] D. Chakrabarti, R. Kumar, F. Radlinski, and E. Upfal. Mortal multi-armed bandits. In NIPS, pages 273?280, 2008. [9] H. Daum?e III, J. M. Phillips, A. Saha, and S. Venkatasubramanian. Efficient protocols for distributed classification and optimization. In ALT, 2012. [10] H. Daum?e III, J. M. Phillips, A. Saha, and S. Venkatasubramanian. Protocols for learning classifiers on distributed data. AISTAT, 2012. [11] J. Dean and S. Ghemawat. MapReduce: simplified data processing on large clusters. Commun. ACM, 51(1):107?113, Jan. 2008. [12] O. Dekel, R. Gilad-Bachrach, O. Shamir, and L. Xiao. Optimal distributed online prediction using mini-batches. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:165?202, 2012. [13] J. Duchi, A. Agarwal, and M. J. Wainwright. Distributed dual averaging in networks. NIPS, 23, 2010. [14] E. Even-Dar, S. Mannor, and Y. Mansour. Action elimination and stopping conditions for the multi-armed bandit and reinforcement learning problems. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:1079?1105, 2006. [15] V. Gabillon, M. Ghavamzadeh, A. Lazaric, and S. Bubeck. Multi-bandit best arm identification. NIPS, 2011. [16] E. Hillel, Z. Karnin, T. Koren, R. Lempel, and O. Somekh. Distributed exploration in multiarmed bandits. arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.0800, 2013. [17] V. Kanade, Z. Liu, and B. Radunovic. Distributed non-stochastic experts. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 260?268, 2012. [18] Z. Karnin, T. Koren, and O. Somekh. Almost optimal exploration in multi-armed bandits. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [19] K. Liu and Q. Zhao. Distributed learning in multi-armed bandit with multiple players. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 58(11):5667?5681, Nov. 2010. [20] S. Mannor and J. Tsitsiklis. The sample complexity of exploration in the multi-armed bandit problem. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:623?648, 2004. [21] O. Maron and A. W. Moore. Hoeffding races: Accelerating model selection search for classification and function approximation. In NIPS, 1994. [22] V. Mnih, C. Szepesv?ari, and J.-Y. Audibert. Empirical bernstein stopping. In ICML, pages 672?679. ACM, 2008. [23] F. Radlinski, M. Kurup, and T. Joachims. How does clickthrough data reflect retrieval quality? In CIKM, pages 43?52, October 2008. [24] Y. Yue and T. Joachims. Interactively optimizing information retrieval systems as a dueling bandits problem. In ICML, page 151, June 2009. 9
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Fast Learning with Predictive Forward Models Carlos Brody? Dept. of Computer Science lIMAS, UNAM Mexico D.F. 01000 Mexico. e-mail: carlos@hope. caltech. edu Abstract A method for transforming performance evaluation signals distal both in space and time into proximal signals usable by supervised learning algorithms, presented in [Jordan & Jacobs 90], is examined. A simple observation concerning differentiation through models trained with redundant inputs (as one of their networks is) explains a weakness in the original architecture and suggests a modification: an internal world model that encodes action-space exploration and, crucially, cancels input redundancy to the forward model is added. Learning time on an example task, cartpole balancing, is thereby reduced about 50 to 100 times. 1 INTRODUCTION In many learning control problems, the evaluation used to modify (and thus improve) control may not be available in terms of the controller's output: instead, it may be in terms of a spatial transformation of the controller's output variables (in which case we shall term it as being "distal in space"), or it may be available only several time steps into the future (termed as being "distal in time"). For example, control of a robot arm may be exerted in terms of joint angles, while evaluation may be in terms of the endpoint cartesian coordinates; furthermore, we may only wish to evaluate the endpoint coordinates reached after a certain period of time: the co?Current address: Computation and Neural Systems Program, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA. 563 564 Brody ordinates reached at the end of some motion, for instance. In such cases, supervised learning methods are not directly applicable, and other techniques must be used. Here we study one such technique (proposed for cases where the evaluation is distal in both space and time by [Jordan & Jacobs 90)), analyse a source of its problems, and propose a simple solution for them which leads to fast, efficient learning. We first describe two methods, and then combine them into the "predictive forward modeling" technique with which we are concerned. 1.1 FORWARD MODELING "Forward Modeling" [Jordan & Rumelhart 90] is useful for dealing with evaluations which are distal in space; it involves the construction of a differentiable model to approximate the controller-action -+ evaluation transformation. Let our controller have internal parameters w, output c, and be evaluated in space e, where e e(c) is an unknown but well-defined transformation. If there is a desired output in space e, called e*, we can write an "error" function, that is, an evaluation we wish minimised, and differentiate it w.r.t. the controller's weights to obtain = E = (e* - e)2 8E 8w 8c 8e 8E = 8w . 8c . 8e (1) Using a differentiable controller allows us to obtain the first factor in the second equation, and the third factor is also known; but the second factor is not. However, if we construct a differentiable model (called a ''forward model") of e(c), then we can obtain an approximation to the second term by differentiating the model, and use this to obtain an estimate of the gradient 8E / 8w through equation (1); this can then be used for comparatively fast minimisation of E, and is what is known as "forward modeling". 1.2 PREDICTIVE CRITICS To deal with evaluations which are distal in time, we may use a "critic" network, as in [Barto, Sutton & Anderson 83]. For a particular control policy implemented by the controller network, the critic is trained to predict the final evaluation that will be obtained given the current state - using, for example, Sutton's TD algorithm [Sutton 88]. The estimated final evaluation is then available as soon as we enter a state, and so may in turn be used to improve the control policy. This approach is closely related to dynamic programming [Barto, Sutton & Watkins 89]. 1.3 PREDICTIVE FORWARD MODELS While the estimated evaluation we obtain from the critic is no longer distal in time, it may still be distal in space. A natural proposal in such cases, where the evaluation signal is distal both in space and time, is to combine the two techniques described above: use a differentiable model as a predictive critic [Jordan & Jacobs 90]. If we know the desired final evaluation, we can then proceed as in equation (1) and obtain the gradient of the error w.r.t. the controller's weights. Schematically, this would look like figure 1. When using a backprop network for the predictive model, Fast Learning with Predictive Forward Models state vector predicted evaluation control CONTROLLER NETWORK PREDICTIVE MODEL Figure 1: Jordan and Jacobs' predictive forward modeling architecture. Solid lines indicate data paths, the dashed line indicates back propagation. we would backpropagate through it, through it's control input, and then into the controller to modify the controller network. We should note that since predictions make no sense without a particular control policy, and the controller is only modified through the predictive model, both networks must be trained simultaneously. [Jordan & Jacobs 90] applied this method to a well-known problem, that of learning to balance an inverted pendulum on a movable cart by exerting appropriate horizontal forces on the cart. The same task, without differentiating the critic, was studied in [Barto, Sutton & Anderson 83]. There, reinforcement learning methods were used instead to modify the controller's weights; these perform a search which in some cases may be shown to follow, on average, the gradient of the expected evaluation w.r .t. the network weights. Since differentiating the critic allows this gradient to be found directly, one would expect much faster learning when using the architecture of figure 1. However, Jordan and Jacobs' results show precisely the opposite: it is surprisingly slow. 2 THE REDUNDANCY PROBLEM We can explain the above surprising result if we consider the fact that the predictive model network has redundant inputs: the control vector c is a function of the state vector; (call this c 17( S)). Let K. and u be the number of components of the control and state vectors, respectively. Instead of drawing its inputs from the entire volume of (K.+u)-dimensional input space, the predictor is trained only with inputs which lie on the u-dimensional manifold defined by the relation 17. A way from the manifold the network is free to produce entirely arbitrary outputs. Differentiation of the model will then provide non-arbitrary gradients only for directions tangential to the manifold; this is a condition that the axes of the control dimensions will not, in general, satisfy.l This observation, which concerns any model trained with redundant inputs, is the very simple yet principal point of this paper. = One may argue that since the control policy is continually changing, the redundancy picture sketched out here is not in fact accurate: as the controller is modified, many lNote that if it is single-valued, there is no way the manifold can "fold around" to cover all (or most) of the K. + (T input space. 565 566 Brody EVALUATION EVALUATION FUNCTION MODELS ( ( lC\..D _____~ ? b c d CONTROL OUTPUT Figure 2: The evaluation as a function of control action. Curves A,B,C,D represent possible (wrong) estimates of the "real" curve made by the predictive model network. possible control policies are "seen" by the predictor, so creating volume in input space and leading to correct gradients obtained from the predictor. However, the way in which this modification occurs is significant. An argument based on empirical observations will be made to sustain this. Consider the example shown in figure 2. The graph shows what the "real" evaluation at some point in state space is, as a function of a component of the control action taken at that pointj this function is what the predictive network should approximate. Suppose the function implemented by the predictive network initially looks like the curve which crosses the "real" evaluation function at point (a)j suppose also that the current action taken also corresponds to point (a). Here we see a one-dimensional example of the redundancy problem: though the prediction at this point is entirely accurate, the gradient is not. If we wish to minimise the predicted evaluation, we would change the action in the direction of point (b). Examples of point (a) will no longer be presented to the predictive network, so it could quite plausibly modify itself simply so as to look like the estimated evaluation curve "B" which is shown crossing point (b) (a minimal change necessary to continue being correct). Again, the gradient is wrong and minimising the prediction will change the action in the same direction as before, perhaps to point (c)j then to (d), and so on. Eventually, the prediction, though accurate, will have zero gradient, as in curve "D", and no modifications will occur. In practice, we have observed networks "getting stuck" in this fashion . Though the objective was to minimise the evaluation, the system stops "learning" at a point far from optimal. The problem may be solved, as Jordan and Jacobs did, by introducing noise in the controller's output, thus breaking the redundancy. Unfortunately, this degrades Fast Learning with Predictive Forward Models ..~[ vector predicted state --.. control vector - -- - ---- - - - CONTROLLER NETWORK predicted evaluation --- ....... --- INTERMEDIATE (WORLD) MODEL PREDICTIVE MODEL Figure 3: The proposed system architecture. Again, solid lines represent data paths while the dashed line represents backpropagation (or differentiation). signal quality and means that since we are predicting future evaluations, we wish to predict the effects of future noise - a notoriously difficult objective. The predictive network eventually outputs the evaluation's expectation value, but this can take a long time. 3 3.1 USING AN INTERMEDIATE MODEL AN EXTRA WORLD MODEL Another way to solve the redundancy problem is through the use of what is here called an "intermediate model": a model of the world the controller is interacting with. That is, if 8(t) represents the state vector at time t, and c(t) the controller output at time t, it is a model of the function 1 where 8(t + 1) 1(8(t), c(t)). = This model is used as represented schematically in figure 3. It helps in modularising the learning task faced by the predictive model [Chrisley 90], but more interestingly, it need not be trained simultaneously with the controller since its output does not depend on future control policy. Hence, it can be trained separately, with examples drawn from its entire (state x action) input space, providing gradient signals without arbitrary components when differentiated. Once trained, we freeze the intermediate model's weights and insert it into the system as in figure 3; we then proceed to train the controller and predictive model as before. The predictive model will no longer have redundant inputs when trained either, so it too will provide correct gradient signals. Since all arbitrary components have been eliminated, the speedup expected from using differentiable predictive models should now be obtainable. 2 3.2 AN EXAMPLE TASK The intermediate model architecture was tested on the same example task as used by Jordan and Jacobs, that of learning to balance a pole which is attached through a hinge on its lower end to a movable cart. The control action is a real valued-force 2This same architecture was independently proposed in [Werbos 90], but without the explanation as to why the intermediate model is necessary instead of merely desirable. 567 568 Brody 1100 1000 ----- I- 900 - 800 ..... ..... ..... ... - 700 600 0 II ~ - 500 H 400 300 200 100 o .II! o LII 100 J J 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 L.arninq trial Figure 4: The evolution of eight different learning networks, using the intermediate model. applied to the cart; the evaluation signal is a "0" while the pole has not fallen over, and the cart hasn't reached the edge of the finite-sized tracks it is allowed to move on, a "I" when either of these events happens. A trial is then said to have failed, and terminates. 3 We count the number of learning trials needed before a controller is able to keep the pole balanced for a significant amount of a time (measured in simulated seconds). Figure 4 shows the evolution of eight networks; most reach balancing solutions within 100 to 300 faiulres. (These successful networks came from a batch of eleven: the other three never reached solutions.) This is 50 to 100 times faster than without the intermediate model, where 5000 to 30000 trials were needed to achieve similar balancing times [Jordan & Jacobs 90]. We must now take into account the overhead needed to train the intermediate model. This was done in 200 seconds of simulated time, while training the whole system typically required some 400 seconds- the overhead is small compared to the improvement achieved through the use of the intermediate model. However, off-line training of the intermediate model requires an additional agency to organise the selection and presentation of training examples. In the real world, we would either need some device which could initialise the system at any point in state space, or we would have to train through "flailing": applying random control actions, over many trials, so as to eventually cover all possible states and actions. As the dimensionality of the state representation rises for larger problems, intermediate model training will become more difficult. 3The differential equations which were used as a model of this system may be found in [Barto, Sutton & Anderson 83]. The parameters of the simulations were identical to those used in [Jordan & Jacobs 90]. Fast Learning with Predictive Forward Models 3.3 REMARKS We should note that the need for covering all state space is not merely due to the requirement of training an intermediate model: dynamic-programming based techniques such as the ones mentioned in this paper are guaranteed to lead us to an optimal control solution only if we explore the entire state space during learning. This is due to their generality, since no a priori structure of the state space is assumed. It might be possible to interleave the training of the intermediate model with the training of the controller and predictor networks, so as to achieve both concurrently. High-dimensional problems will still be problematic, but not just due to intermediate model training- the curse of dimensionality is not easily avoided! 4 CONCLUSIONS If we differentiate through a model trained with redundant inputs, we eliminate possible arbitrary components (which are due to the arbitrary mixing of the inputs that the model may use) only if we differentiate tangentially along the manifold defined by the relationship between the inputs. For the architecture presented in [Jordan & Jacobs 90], this is problematic, since the axes of the control vector will typically not be tangential to the manifold. Once we take this into account, it is clear why the architecture was not as efficient as expected; and we can introduce an "intermediate" world model to avoid the problems that it had. Using the intermediate model allows us to correctly obtain (through backpropagation, or differentiation) a real-valued vector evaluation on the controller's output. On the example task presented here, this led to a 50 to 100-foid increase in learning speed, and suggests a much better scaling-up performance and applicability to real-world problems than simple reinforcement learning, where real-valued outputs are not permitted, and vector control outputs would train very slowly. Acknowledgements Many thanks are due to Richard Rohwer, who supervised the beginning of this project, and to M. I. Jordan and R. Jacobs, who answered questions enlighteningly; thanks are also due to Dr F. Bracho at lIMAS, UNAM, who provided the environment for the project's conclusion. This work was supported by scholarships from CON ACYT in Mexico and from Caltech in the U.S. References [Ackley 88] D. H. Ackley, "Associative Learning via Inhibitory Search", in D. S. Touretzky, ed., Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1, Morgan Kaufmann 1989 [Barto, Sutton & Anderson 83] A. G. Barto, R. S. Sutton, and C. W. Anderson, "Neuronlike Adaptive Elements that can Solve Difficult Control Problems", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. SMC-13, No.5, Sept/Oct. 1983 569 570 Brody [Barto, Sutton & Watkins 89] A. G. Barto, R. S. Sutton, and C. J. C. H. Watkins, "Learning and Sequential Decision Making", University of Massachusetts at Amherst COINS Technical Report 89-95, September 1989 [Chrisley 90] R. L. Chrisley, "Cognitive Map Construction and Use: A Parallel Distributed Approach", in Touretzky, Elman, Sejnowski, and Hinton, eds., Connectionist Models: Proceedings of the 1990 Summer School, Morgan Kaufmann 1991, [Jordan & Jacobs 90] M. I. Jordan and R. A. Jacobs, "Learning to Control an Unstable System with Forward Modeling", in D. S. Touretzky, ed., Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2, Morgan Kaufmann 1990 [Jordan & Rumelhart 90] M. I. Jordan and D. E. Rumelhart, "Supervised learning with a Distal Teacher" , preprint. [Nguyen & Widrow 90] D. Nguyen and B. Widrow, ''The Truck Backer-Upper: An Example of Self-Learning in Neural Networks", in Miller, Sutton and Werbos, eds., Neural Networks for Control, MIT Press 1990 [Sutton 88] R. S. Sutton, "Learning to Predict by the Methods of Temporal Differences", Machine Learning 3: 9-44, 1988 [Werbos 90] P. Werbos, "Architectures for Reinforcement Learning", in Miller, Sutton and Werbos, eds., Neural Networks for Control, MIT Press 1990
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Dimension-Free Exponentiated Gradient Francesco Orabona Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago Chicago, USA [email protected] Abstract I present a new online learning algorithm that extends the exponentiated gradient framework to infinite dimensional spaces. My analysis shows that the algorithm is implicitly able to estimate the L2 norm of the unknown ? competitor, U , achieving a regret bound of the order of O(U log(U T + 1)) T ), instead of the standard ? O((U 2 + 1) T ), achievable without knowing U . For this analysis, I introduce novel tools for algorithms with time-varying regularizers, through the use of local smoothness. Through a lower bound, I also show that the algorithm is optimal up p to log(U T ) term for linear and Lipschitz losses. 1 Introduction Online learning provides a scalable and flexible approach for solving a wide range of prediction problems, including classification, regression, ranking, and portfolio management. These algorithms work in rounds, where at each round a new instance is given and the algorithm makes a prediction. After the true label of the instance is revealed, the learning algorithm updates its internal hypothesis. The aim of the classifier is to minimize the cumulative loss it suffers due to its prediction, such as the total number of mistakes. Popular online algorithms for classification include the standard Perceptron and its many variants, such as kernel Perceptron [6], and p-norm Perceptron [7]. Other online algorithms, with properties different from those of the standard Perceptron, are based on multiplicative (rather than additive) updates, such as Winnow [10] for classification and Exponentiated Gradient (EG) [9] for regression. Recently, Online Mirror Descent (OMD)1 and has been proposed as a general meta-algorithm for online learning, parametrized by a regularizer [16]. By appropriately choosing the regularizer, most online learning algorithms are recovered as special cases of OMD. Moreover, performance guarantees can also be derived simply by instantiating the general OMD bounds to the specific regularizer being used. So, for all the ? first-order online learning algorithms, it is possible to prove regret bounds of the order of O(f (u) T ), where T is the number of rounds and f (u) is the regularizer used in OMD, evaluated on the competitor vector u. Hence, different choices of the regularizer will give rise to different algorithms and guarantees. For example, p-norm algorithms can be derived from the squared Lp -norm regularization, while EG can be derived from the one. In particular ? ? entropic 2 for the Euclidean regularizer ? T kuk2 , we have a regret bound of O( T (kuk /? + ?)). Knowing ? kuk it is possible to tune? ? to have a O(kuk T ) bound, that is optimal [1]. On the other hand, EG has a regret bound of O( T log d), where d is the dimension of the space. In this paper, I use OMD to extend EG to infinite dimensional spaces, through the use of a carefully designed time-varying regularizer. The algorithm, that I call Dimension-Free Exponentiated Gradient (DFEG), does not need direct access to single components of the vectors, rather it only requires 1 The algorithm should be more correctly called Follow the Regularized Leader, however here I follow Shalev-Shwartz in [16], and I will denote it by OMD. 1 to access them through inner products. Hence, DFEG can be used with kernels too, extending for the ? first time EG to the kernel domain. I prove a regret bound of O(kuk log(kukT + 1) T ). Up to logarithmic terms, the bound of DFEG is equal to the optimal bound obtained through the knowledge of kuk, but it does not require the tuning of any parameter. I built upon ideas of [19], but I designed my new algorithm as an instantiation of OMD, rather than using an ad-hoc analysis. I believe that this route increases the comprehension of the inner working of the algorithm, its relation to other algorithms, and it makes easier to extend it in other directions as well. In order to analyze DFEG, I also introduce new and general techniques to cope with timevarying regularizers for OMD, using the local smoothness of the dual of the regularization function, that might be of independent interest. ? I also extend and improve the lower bound in [19], to match the upper bound of DFEG up to a log T term, and to show an implicit trade-off on the regret versus different competitors. 1.1 Related works Exponentiated gradient algorithms have been proposed by [9]. The algorithms have multiplicative updates and regret bounds that depend logarithmically on the dimension of the input space. In particular, they proposed a version of EG where the weights are not normalized, called EGU. A closer algorithm to mine is the epoch-free in [19]. Indeed, DFEG is equivalent to theirs when used on one dimensional problems. However, the extension to infinite dimensional spaces is nontrivial and very different in nature from their extension to d-dimensional problems, that consists on running a copy of the algorithm independently on each coordinate. Their regret bound depends on the dimension of the space and can neither be used with infinite dimensional spaces nor with kernels. ? Vovk proposed two algorithms for square loss, with regret bounds of O((kuk + Y ) T ) and ? O(kuk T ) respectively, where Y is an upper bound on the range of the target values [20]. A matching lower bound is also presented, proving the optimality of the second algorithm. However, the algorithms seem specific to the square loss and it is not possible to adapt them p to other losses. Indeed, the lower bound I prove shows that for linear and Lipschitz losses a log(kukT ) term is unavoidable. Moreover, the second algorithm, being an instantiation of the Aggregating Algorithm [21], does not seem to have an efficient implementation. My algorithm also shares similarities in spirit with the family of self-confident algorithms [2, 7, 15], in which the algorithm self-tunes its parameters based on internal estimates. From the point of view of the proof technique, the primal-dual analysis of OMD is due to [15, 17]. Starting from the work of [8], it is now clear that OMD can be easily analyzed using only a few basic convex duality properties. See the recent survey [16] for a lucid description of these developments. The time-varying regularization for OMD has been explored in [4, 12, 15], but in none of these works does the negative terms in the bound due to the time-varying regularizer play a decisive role. The use of the local estimates of strong smoothness is new, as far as I know. A related way to have a local analysis is through the local norms [16], but my approach is better tailored to my needs. 2 Problem setting and definitions In the online learning scenario the learning algorithms work in rounds [3]. Let X a Euclidean vector space2 , at each round t, an instance xt ? X, is presented to the algorithm, which then predicts a label y?t ? R. Then, the correct label yt is revealed, and the algorithm pays a loss `(? yt , yt ), for having predicted y?t , instead of yt . The aim of the online learning algorithm is to minimize the cumulative sum of the losses, on any sequence of data/labels {(xt , yt )}Tt=1 . Typical examples of loss functions are, for example, the absolute loss, |? yt ? yt |, and the hinge loss, max(1 ? y?t yt , 0). Note that the loss function can change over time, so in the following I will denote by `t : R ? R the generic loss function received by the algorithm at time t. In this paper I focus on linear prediction of the form y?t = hwt , xt i, where wt ? X represents the hypothesis of the online algorithm at time t. 2 All the theorems hold also in general Hilbert spaces, but for simplicity of exposition I consider a Euclidean setting. 2 Algorithm 1 Dimension-Free Exponentiated Gradient. Parameters: 0.882 ? a ? 1.109, L > 0, ? > 0. Initialize: ? 1 = 0 ? X, H0 = ? for t = 1, 2, . . . do Receive kxt k, where xt ? X  Set Ht = Ht?1 + L2 max kxt k, kxt k2 3 ? Set ?t = a Ht , ?t = Ht2 if k? t k == 0 then choose wt= 0  ?t else choose wt = ?t k? exp k??ttk tk Suffer loss `t (hwt , xt i) Update ? t+1 = ? t ? ?`t (hwt , xt i)xt end for We strive to design online learning algorithms for which it is possible to prove a relative regret bound. Such analysis bounds the regret, that is the difference between the cumulative loss of the PT PT algorithm, t=1 `t (hwt , xt i), and the one of an arbitrary and fixed competitor u, t=1 `t (hu, xt i). We will consider L-Lipschitz losses, that is |`t (y) ? `t (y 0 )| ? L|y ? y 0 |, ?y, y 0 . I now introduce some basic notions of convex analysis that are used in the paper. I refer to [14] for definitions and terminology. I consider functions f : X ? R that are closed and convex. Given a ? closed and convex function f with  domain S ? X, its Fenchel conjugate f : X ? R is defined as f ? (u) = supv?S hv, ui ? f (v) . The Fenchel-Young inequality states that f (u) + f ? (v) ? hu, vi for all v, u. A vector x is a subgradient of a convex function f at v if f (u) ? f (v) ? hu ? v, xi for any u in the domain of f . The differential set of f at v, denoted by ?f (v), is the set of all the subgradients of f at v. If f is also differentiable at v, then ?f (v) contains a single vector, denoted by ?f (v), which is the gradient of f at v. Strong convexity and strong smoothness are key properties in the design of online learning algorithms, they are defined as follows. A function f is ?-strongly convex with respect to a norm k?k if for any u, v in its domain, and any x ? ?f (u), ? 2 f (v) ? f (u) + hv ? u, xi + ku ? vk . 2 The Fenchel conjugate f ? of a ?-strongly convex function f is everywhere differentiable and strongly smooth [8], this means that for all u, v ? X, f ? (v) ? f ? (u) + hv ? u, ?f ? (u)i + 1 ?- 1 2 ku ? vk? . 2? In the remainder of the paper all the norms considered will be the L2 ones. 3 Dimension-Free Exponentiated Gradient In this section I describe the DFEG algorithm. The pseudo-code is in Algorithm 1. It shares some similarities with the exponentiated gradient with unnormalized weights algorithm [9], to the selftuning variant of exponentiated gradient in [15], and to the epoch-free algorithm in [19]. However, note that it does not access to single coordinates of wt and xt , but only their inner products. Hence, we expect the algorithm not to depend on the dimension of X, that can be even infinite. In other words, DFEG can be used with kernels as well, on contrary of all the mentioned algorithms above. For the DFEG algorithm we have the following regret bound, that will be proved in Section 4. Theorem 1. Let 0.882 ? a ? 1.109, ? > 0, then, for any sequence of input vectors {xt }Tt=1 , any sequence of L-Lipschitz convex losses {`t (?)}Tt=1 , and any u ? X, the following bound on the regret holds for Algorithm 1 T X `t (hwt , xt i) ? t=1 where HT = ? + T X t=1 PT t=1 `t (hu, xt i) ?   3   p 4 exp(1 + a1 ) ? + akuk HT ln HT2 kuk ? 1 , L ? L2 max(kxt k, kxt k2 ). 3 The bound has a logarithmic part, typical of the family of exponentiated gradient algorithms, but instead of depending on the dimension, it depends on the norm of the competitor, kuk. Hence, the regret bound of DFEG holds for infinite dimensional spaces as well, that is, it is dimension-free. It is interesting to compare this bound with the usual bound for online learning using an L2 regular? t izer. Using a time-varying regularizer ft (w) = ? kwk2 it is easy to see, e.g. [15], that the bound ? would be3 O((kuk2 /? + ?) T ). If an upper ? bound U on kuk is known, we can use it to tune ? to obtain an upper bound of ? the order of O(U T ). On the other hand, we obtain for DFEG a bound of O(kuk log(kukT + 1) T ), that is optimal bound, up to logarithmic terms, without knowing U . So my bound goes to constant if the norm of the competitor goes to zero. However, note that, for any fixed competitor, the gradient descent bound is asymptotically better. The lower bound on the range of a we get comes from technical details of the analysis. The parameter a is directly linked to the leading constant of the regret bound; therefore, it is intuitive that the range of acceptable values must have a lower bound different from zero. This is also confirmed by the lower bound in Theorem 2 below. Notice that the bound is data-dependent because it depends on the sequence of observed input vectors xt . A data-independent bound can be easily obtained from the upper bound on the norm of the input vectors. The use of the function max(kxt k, kxt k2 ) is necessary to have such a data-dependent bound and it seems that it cannot be avoided in order to prove the regret bound. It is natural to ask if the log term in the bound can be avoided. Extending Theorem 7 in [19], we can reply in the negative to this question. In particular, the following theorem shows that the regret of any online learning algorithm has a satisfy to a trade-off between the guarantees against the competitor with norm equal to zero and the ones against other competitors. A similar trade-off has been proven in the expert settings [5]. Theorem 2. Fix a non-trivial vector space X , a specific online learning algorithm, and let the sequence of losses be composed by linear losses. If the algorithm guarantees a zero regret against the competitor with zero L2 norm, then there exists a sequence of T vectors in X , such that the regret against any other competitor is ?(T ). On the other hand, if the algorithm guarantees a regret at most of  > 0 against the competitor with zero L2 norm, then, for any 0 < ? < 1, there exists a T0 and a sequence of T ? T0 unitary norm vectors z t ? X , and a vector u ? X such that v u ? ! r T T X X 1 u ?kuk T t hwt , z t i ? (1 ? ?)kuk hu, z t i ? ?2. T log log 2 3 t=1 t=1 The proof can be found in the supplementary material. It isqpossible to show that the optimal ? is of the order of log1 T , so that the leading constant approaches log1 2 ? 1.2011 when T goes to infinity. ? It is also interesting to note ? that an L2 regularizer suffers a loss of O( T ) against a competitor with zero norm, that cancels the log T term. 4 Analysis In this section I prove my main result. I will first briefly introduce the general OMD algorithm with time-varying regularizers on which my algorithm is based. 4.1 Online mirror descent and local smoothness Algorithm 2 is a generic meta-algorithm for online learning. Most of the online learning algorithms can be derived from it, choosing the functions ft and the vectors z t . The following lemma, that is a generalization of Corollary 4 in [8], Corollary 3 in [4], and Lemma 1 in [12], is the main tool to prove the regret bound for the DFEG algorithm. The proof is in the supplementary material. ? 3 Despite what claimed in Section 1 of [19], the use of the time-varying regularizer ft (w) = guarantees a sublinear regret for unconstrained online convex optimization, for any ? > 0. 4 t kwk2 ? Algorithm 2 Time-varying Online Mirror Descent Parameters: A sequence of convex functions f1 , f2 , . . . defined on S ? X. Initialize: ? 1 = 0 ? X for t = 1, 2, . . . do Choose wt = ?ft? (? t ) Observe z t ? X Update ? t+1 = ? t + z t end for Lemma 1. Assume Algorithm 2 is run with functions f1 , f2 , . . . defined on a common domain S ? X. Then for any w0t , u ? S we have T X hz t , u ? w0t i ? fT (u) + t=1 T X  ? ft? (? t+1 ) ? ft?1 (? t ) ? hw0t , z t i , t=1 where we set f0? (w01 ) = max0?? ?1 k?2 ft? (? t + ? z t )k 0. Moreover, if f1? , f2? , . . . are twice differentiable, and ? ?t , then we have ? ? ft? (? t+1 ) ? ft?1 (? t ) ? hwt , z t i ? ft? (? t ) ? ft?1 (? t ) + ?t 2 kz t k . 2 Note that the above Lemma is usually stated assuming the strong convexity of ft , that is equivalent to the strong smoothness of ft? , that in turns for twice differentiable functions is equivalent to a global bound on the norm of the Hessian of ft? (see Theorem 2.1.6 in [11]). Here I take a different route, assuming the functions ft? to be twice differentiable, but using the weaker hypothesis of local boundedness of the Hessian of ft? . Hence, for twice differentiable conjugate functions, this bound is always tighter than the ones in [4, 8, 12]. Indeed, in our case, the global strong smoothness cannot be used to prove any meaningful regret bound. We derive the Dimension-Free Exponentiated Gradient from the general OMD above. Set in Algorithm 2 ft (w) = ?t kwk(log(?t kwk) ? 1), where ?t and ?t are defined in Algorithm 1, and z t = ??`t (hwt , xt i)xt . The proof idea of my theorem is the following. First, assume that we are on a round where we have a local upper bound on the norm of the Hessian ft? .?The usual approach in these kind of proof is to have a regularizer that is growing over time as t, so that the ? (? t ) are negative and can be safely discarded. At the same time the sum of the terms ft? (? t ) ? ft?1 ? ? squared norms of the gradients will typically be of the order of O( T ), giving us a O( T ) regret bound (see for example the proofs in [4]). However, following this approach in ? DFEG we would have that the sum of norms of the squared gradients grows much faster than O( T ). This is due to the fact that the global strong smoothness is too small. Hence I introduce a different proof method. In the following, I will show the surprising result that with my choice of the regularizers ft , the ? terms ft? (? t ) ? ft?1 (? t ) and the squared norm of the gradient cancel out. Notice that already in [12, 13] it has been advocated not to discard those terms to obtain tighter bounds. Here the same terms play a major role in the proof and they are present thanks to the time-varying regularization. This is in agreement with Theorem 9 in [19] that rules out algorithms with a fixed regularizer to obtain regret bounds like Theorem 1. It remains to bound the regret in the rounds where we do not have an upper bound on the norm of the Hessian. In these rounds I show that the norm of wt (and ? t ) is small enough so that the regret is still bounded, thanks to the choice of ?t . 4.2 Proof of the main result We start defining the new regularizer and show its properties in the following Lemma (proof in the supplementary material). Note the similarities with EGU, where the regularizer is Pd d i=1 wi (log(wi ) ? 1), w ? R , wi ? 0 [9]. Lemma 2. Define f (w) = ?kwk(ln(?kwk) ? 1), for ?, ? > 0. The following properties hold ? f ? (?) = ? ? exp k?k ? . 5 ? ?f ? (?) = ? ?k?k ? k?2 f ? (?)k2 ? exp k?k ? . 1 ? min(k?k,?) exp( k?k ? ). Equipped with a local upper bound on the Hessian of f ? , we can now use Lemma 1. We notice that?Lemma 1 also guides ? us in the choice of the sequences ?t . In fact if we want the regret to be ? ? O( T ), ?t must be O( T ) too. In the proof of Theorem 1 we also use the following three technical lemmas, whose proofs are in the supplementary material. The first two are used to upper bound the exponential function with quadratic functions. Lemma 3. Let M > 0, then for any p+ exp(M )?p 2 x M2 exp(M ) M 2 +1 ? p ? exp(M ), and 0 ? x ? M , we have exp(x) ? . Lemma 4. Let M > 0, then for any 0 ? x ? M , we have exp(x) ? 1 + x + Lemma 5. For any p, q > 0 we have that ?2 p ? ?2 p+q ? q 3 (p+q) 2 exp(M )?1?M 2 x . M2 . Proof of Theorem 1. In the following denote by n(x) := max(kxk, kxk2 ). We will use Lemma 1 to upper bound the regret of DFEG. Hence, using the notation in Algorithm 1, set z t = ??`t (hwt , xt i)xt , and ft (w) = ?t kwk(log(?t kwk) ? 1). Observe that, by the hypothesis on `t , we have kz t k ? Lkxt k. We first consider two cases, based on the norm of ? t . Case 1: k? t k > ?t + kz t k. With this assumption, and using the third property of Lemma 2, we have     k? t k+kz t k zt k exp exp k?t +? ? ? t t ? max k?2 ft? (? t + ? z t )k ? max . 0?? ?1 0?? ?1 ?t min(k? t + ? z t k, ?t ) ?t ? t 2 ? We now use the second statement of Lemma 1. We have that ?t kz2 t k + ft? (? t ) ? ft?1 (? t ) can be upper bounded by       kz t k2 k? t k + kz t k ?t k? t k ?t?1 k? t k exp + exp ? exp 2?t ?t ?t ?t ?t ?t?1 ?t?1       kz t k2 k? t k + kz t k ?t k? t k ?t?1 k? t k ? exp + exp ? exp 2?t ?t ?t ?t ?t ?t?1 ?t      k? t k kz t k kz t k2 a a = exp exp + ? . (1) ?t 2aHt2 ?t Ht Ht?1 We will now prove that the term in the parenthesis of (1) is negative. It can be rewritten as     kz t k2 Ht?1 exp kz?ttk ? 2a2 Ht?1 L2 n(xt ) ? 2a2 L4 (n(xt ))2 kz t k a a kz t k2 exp + ? = , 2aHt2 ?t Ht Ht?1 2aHt2 Ht?1 kz t k 1 2 ?t ? a , so we now use Lemma 3 with p = 2a and 1 exp( a ) because 1 +1 ? 2a2 ? exp( a1 ), ? 0.825 ? a ? 1.109, as it a2 and from the expression of ?t we have that M = 1/a. These are valid settings can be verified numerically.   kz t k2 kz t k a a exp + ? 2 2aHt ?t Ht Ht?1   2 2 2 2 kz t k Ht?1 2a + a (exp( a1 ) ? 2a2 ) kz?t2k ? 2a2 Ht?1 L2 n(xt ) ? 2a2 L4 (n(xt ))2 t ? 2aHt2 Ht?1   2 2 tk L2 kxt k2 Ht?1 2a2 + a2 (exp( a1 ) ? 2a2 ) L akx ? 2a2 Ht?1 L2 kxt k2 ? 2a2 L4 kxt k2 2H t ? 2aHt2 Ht?1 L4 kxt k4 (exp( a1 ) ? 4a2 ) ? ? 0, (2) 2aHt2 Ht?1 6 where in last step we used the fact that exp( a1 ) ? 4a2 , ? a ? 0.882, as again it can be verified numerically. Case 2: k? t k ? ?t + kz t k. We use the first statement of Lemma 1, setting w0t = wt if k?k = 6 0, and w0t = 0 otherwise. In this 0 way, from the second property of Lemma 2, we have that kwt k ? ?1t exp( k??ttk ). Note that any other choice of w0t satisfying the the previous relation on the norm of w0t would have worked as well.     ?t k? t+1 k ?t?1 k? t k ? ? ft (? t+1 ) ? ft?1 (? t ) = exp ? exp ?t ?t ?t?1 ?t?1   k        exp kz ?t Ht?1 ? Ht k? t k ?t kz t k ?t?1 k? t k a Ht ? exp exp ? = a exp . (3) ?t ?t ?t ?t?1 ?t Ht?1 Ht Remembering that kz?ttk ? a1 , and using Lemma 4 with M = a1 , we have   kz t k Lkxt k ? ? Ht?1 ? L2 n(xt ) ? Ht?1 exp ? ? Ht?1 ? L2 kxt k2 Ht?1 exp a Ht a Ht       1 1 L2 kxt k2 Lkxt k 2 + a exp ?1? ? Ht?1 1 + ? ? Ht?1 ? L2 kxt k2 a a a2 Ht a Ht     1 LHt?1 kxt k 1 L2 Ht?1 kxt k2 ? + exp = ?1? ? L2 kxt k2 a a Ht a Ht     1 1 LHt?1 kxt k LHt?1 kxt k 2 2 ? ? + L kxt k exp ?2? ? , (4) ? a a a Ht a Ht where in the last step we used the fact that exp( a1 ) ? 2 ? a1 ? 0, ? a ? 0.873, verified numerically. Putting together (3) and (4), we have   k? t k Lkxt k ? ? hw0t , z t i ft? (? t+1 ) ? ft?1 (? t ) ? hw0t , z t i ? exp 3 ?t 2 H   t     k? t k Lkxt k k? t k Lkxt k k? t k Lkxt k 0 ? exp + Lkwt kkxt k ? exp + exp 3 3 ?t ?t ?t ?t Ht2 Ht2   1 2 exp(1 + a )Lkxt k k? t k Lkxt k ? , (5) = 2 exp 3 3 ?t Ht2 Ht2 where in the second inequality we used the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and the Lipschitzness of `t , in the third the bound on the norm of w0t , and in the last inequality the fact that k? t k ? ?t + kz t k implies exp( k??ttk ) ? exp(1 + a1 ). Putting together (2) and (5) and summing over t, we have T X T T  X 2 exp(1 + a1 )Lkxt k 2 X exp(1 + a1 )L2 kxt k ? ft? (? t+1 ) ? ft?1 (? t ) ? hw0t , z t i ? ? P 3 L t=1 ( tj=1 L2 kxt k + ?) 32 Ht2 t=1 t=1 ? ? T 4 exp(1 + a1 ) X 4 exp(1 + a1 ) 1 1 ?q ?? ? q ? ? , Pt Pt?1 2 L L ? L2 kx k + ? L kx k + ? t=1 j=1 t j=1 t where in the third inequality we used Lemma 5. The stated bound can be obtained observing that `t (hwt , xt i) ? `t (hu, xt i) ? hu ? wt , z t i, from the convexity of `t and the definition of z t . 5 Experiments A full empirical evaluation of DFEG is beyond the scope of this paper. Here I just want to show the empirical effect of some of its theoretical properties. In all the experiments I used the absolute loss, 7 18 16 cadata dataset 4 Synthetic dataset 2 20 DFEG Kernel GD, eta=0.05 Kernel GD, eta=0.1 Kernel GD, eta=0.2 x 10 1.95 cpusmall dataset 14000 DFEG Kernel GD, various eta DFEG Kernel GD, various eta 12000 1.9 1.85 14 10000 10 1.8 1.75 8 1.7 6 1.65 4 1.6 2 1.55 0 0 Total loss Total loss Regret 12 8000 6000 4000 2000 4000 6000 Numer of samples 8000 10000 1.5 ?2 10 ?1 10 0 10 eta 1 10 2 10 2000 ?1 10 0 1 10 10 2 10 eta Figure 1: Left: regret versus number of input vectors on synthetic dataset. Center and Right: total loss for DFEG and Kernel GD on the cadata and cpusmall dataset respectively. so L = 1, a is set to the minimal value allowed by Theorem 1 and ? = 1. I denote by Kernel GD ? the OMD with the regularizer ?t kwk2 . First, I generated synthetic data as in the proof of Theorem 2, that is the input vectors are all the same and the yt is equal to 1 for the t even and ?1 for the others. In this case we know that the optimal predictor has norm equal to zero and we can exactly calculate the value of the regret. Figure 1(left) I have plotted the regret as a function of the number of input vectors. As ? predicted by the theory, DFEG has a constant regret, while Kernel GD has a regret of the form O(? T ). Hence, it can have a constant regret only when ? is set to zero, and this can be done only with prior knowledge of kuk, that is impossible in practical applications. For the second experiment, I analyzed the behavior of DFEG on two real word regression datasets, cadata and cpusmall4 . I used the Gaussian kernel with variance equal to the average distance between training input vectors. I have plotted in Figure 1(central) the final cumulative loss of DFEG and the ones of GD with varying values of ?. We see that, while the performance of Kernel GD can be better of the one of DFEG, as predicted by the theory, its performance varies greatly in relation to ?. On the other hand the performance of DFEG is close to the optimal one without the need to tune any parameters. It is also worth noting the catastrophic result we can get from a wrong tuning of ? in GD. Similar considerations hold for the cpusmall dataset in Figure 1(right). 6 Discussion I have presented a new algorithm for online learning, the first one in the family of exponentiated gradient to be dimension-free. Thanks ? to new analysis tools, I have proved that DFEG attains a regret bound of O(U log(U T + 1)) T ), without any ? parameter to tune. I also proved a lower bound that shows that the algorithm is optimal up to log T term for linear and Lipschitz losses. The problem of deriving a regret bound that depends on the sequence of theq gradients, rather than PT on the xt , remains open. Resolving this issue would result in the tighter O( t=1 `t (hw t , xt i)) regret bounds in the case that the `t are smooth [18]. The difficulty in proving these kind of bounds seem to lie in the fact that (2) is negative only because Ht ? Ht?1 is bigger than kz t k2 . Acknowledgments I am thankful to Jennifer Batt for her help and support during the writing of this paper, to Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi for the useful comments on an early version of this work, and to Tamir Hazan for his writing style suggestions. I also thank the anonymous reviewers for their precise comments, which helped me to improve the clarity of this manuscript. 4 http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/ 8 References [1] J. Abernethy, A. Agarwal, P. L. Bartlett, and A. Rakhlin. A stochastic view of optimal regret through minimax duality. In COLT, 2009. [2] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and C. Gentile. Adaptive and self-confident on-line learning algorithms. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 64(1):48?75, 2002. [3] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, learning, and games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [4] J. C. Duchi, E. Hazan, and Y. Singer. Adaptive subgradient methods for online learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:2121?2159, 2011. [5] E. Even-Dar, M. Kearns, Y. Mansour, and J. Wortman. Regret to the best vs. regret to the average. In N. H. Bshouty and C. Gentile, editors, COLT, volume 4539 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 233?247. Springer, 2007. [6] Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. Large margin classification using the Perceptron algorithm. Machine Learning, pages 277?296, 1999. [7] C. Gentile. The robustness of the p-norm algorithms. Machine Learning, 53(3):265?299, 2003. [8] S. M. Kakade, S. Shalev-Shwartz, and A. Tewari. Regularization techniques for learning with matrices. CoRR, abs/0910.0610, 2009. [9] J. Kivinen and M. Warmuth. Exponentiated gradient versus gradient descent for linear predictors. Information and Computation, 132(1):1?63, January 1997. [10] N. Littlestone. Learning quickly when irrelevant attributes abound: a new linear-threshold algorithm. Machine Learning, 2(4):285?318, 1988. [11] Y. Nesterov. Introductory lectures on convex optimization: A basic course, volume 87. Springer, 2003. [12] F. Orabona and K. Crammer. New adaptive algorithms for online classification. In J. Lafferty, C. K. I. Williams, J. Shawe-Taylor, R.S. Zemel, and A. Culotta, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pages 1840?1848. 2010. [13] F. Orabona, K. Crammer, and N. Cesa-Bianchi. A generalized online mirror descent with applications to classification and regression, 2013. arXiv:1304.2994. [14] R. T. Rockafellar. Convex Analysis (Princeton Mathematical Series). Princeton University Press, 1970. [15] S. Shalev-Shwartz. Online learning: Theory, algorithms, and applications. Technical report, The Hebrew University, 2007. PhD thesis. [16] S. Shalev-Shwartz. Online learning and online convex optimization. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 4(2), 2012. [17] S. Shalev-Shwartz and Y. Singer. A primal-dual perspective of online learning algorithms. Machine Learning Journal, 2007. [18] N. Srebro, K. Sridharan, and A. Tewari. Smoothness, low noise and fast rates. In J. Lafferty, C. K. I. Williams, J. Shawe-Taylor, R. S. Zemel, and A. Culotta, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pages 2199?2207. 2010. [19] M. Streeter and B. McMahan. No-regret algorithms for unconstrained online convex optimization. In P. Bartlett, F.C.N. Pereira, C.J.C. Burges, L. Bottou, and K.Q. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2411?2419. 2012. [20] V. Vovk. On-line regression competitive with reproducing kernel hilbert spaces. In Jin-Yi Cai, S.Barry Cooper, and Angsheng Li, editors, Theory and Applications of Models of Computation, volume 3959 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 452?463. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. [21] V. G. Vovk. Aggregating strategies. In COLT, pages 371?386, 1990. 9
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Generalizing Analytic Shrinkage for Arbitrary Covariance Structures Daniel Bartz Department of Computer Science TU Berlin, Berlin, Germany [email protected] ? Klaus-Robert Muller TU Berlin, Berlin, Germany Korea University, Korea, Seoul [email protected] Abstract Analytic shrinkage is a statistical technique that offers a fast alternative to crossvalidation for the regularization of covariance matrices and has appealing consistency properties. We show that the proof of consistency requires bounds on the growth rates of eigenvalues and their dispersion, which are often violated in data. We prove consistency under assumptions which do not restrict the covariance structure and therefore better match real world data. In addition, we propose an extension of analytic shrinkage ?orthogonal complement shrinkage? which adapts to the covariance structure. Finally we demonstrate the superior performance of our novel approach on data from the domains of finance, spoken letter and optical character recognition, and neuroscience. 1 Introduction The estimation of covariance matrices is the basis of many machine learning algorithms and estimation procedures in statistics. The standard estimator is the sample covariance matrix: its entries are unbiased and consistent [1]. A well-known shortcoming of the sample covariance is the systematic error in the spectrum. In particular for high dimensional data, where dimensionality p and number of observations n are often of the same order, large eigenvalues are over- und small eigenvalues underestimated. A form of regularization which can alleviate this bias is shrinkage [2]: the convex combination of the sample covariance matrix S and a multiple of the identity T = p?1 trace(S)I, Csh = (1 ? ?)S + ?T, (1) has potentially lower mean squared error and lower bias in the spectrum [3]. The standard procedure for chosing an optimal regularization for shrinkage is cross-validation [4], which is known to be time consuming. For online settings CV can become unfeasible and a faster model selection method is required. Recently, analytic shrinkage [3] which provides a consistent analytic formula for the above regularization parameter ? has become increasingly popular. It minimizes the expected mean squared error of the convex combination with a computational cost of O(p2 ), which is negligible when used for algorithms like Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) which are O(p3 ). The consistency of analytic shrinkage relies on assumptions which are rarely tested in practice [5]. This paper will therefore aim to render the analytic shrinkage framework more practical and usable for real world data. We contribute in three aspects: first, we derive simple tests for the applicability of the analytic shrinkage framework and observe that for many data sets of practical relevance the assumptions which underly consistency are not fullfilled. Second, we design assumptions which better fit the statistical properties observed in real world data which typically has a low dimensional structure. Under these new assumptions, we prove consistency of analytic shrinkage. We show a counter-intuitive result: for typical covariance structures, no shrinkage ?and therefore no regularization? takes place in the limit of high dimensionality and number of observations. In practice, this leads to weak shrinkage and degrading performance. Therefore, third, we propose an extension of the shrinkage framework: automatic orthogonal complement shrinkage (aoc-shrinkage) 1 takes the covariance structure into account and outperforms standard shrinkage on real world data at a moderate increase in computation time. Note that proofs of all theorems in this paper can be found in the supplemental material. 2 Overview of analytic shrinkage To derive analytic shrinkage, the expected mean squared error of the shrinkage covariance matrix eq. (1) as an estimator of the true covariance matrix C is minimized:  2  ? (2) ? = arg min R(?) := arg min E C ? (1 ? ?)S ? ?T ? ? ( ) n    o h   X 2 i = arg min 2? Cov Sij , Tij ? Var Sij + ?2 E Sij ? Tij + Var Sij (3) ? i,j n  o Var S ? Cov S , T ij ij ij i,j h . 2 i P E S ? T ij ij i,j P = ? is obtained by replacing expectations with sample estimates: The analytic shrinkage estimator ? 2 X  1 1X d Sij = Var xis xjs ? xit xjt (n ? 1)n s n t ( ) X X X X  1 1 2 2 2 2 d Sii , Tii = xis xks ? x x 0 Cov (n ? 1)np n t it 0 it s t k   b (Sij ? Tij )2 = (Sij ? Tij )2 E ? are based on analysis of a sequence of statistical models Theoretical results on the estimator ? indexed by n. Xn denotes a pn ? n matrix of n iid observations of pn variables with mean zero and covariance matrix ?n . Yn = ?Tn Xn denotes the same observations in their eigenbasis, having n diagonal covariance ?n = ?Tn ?n ?n . Lower case letters xnit and yit denote the entries of Xn and ? is its consistency in the large n, p Yn , respectively1 . The main theoretical result on the estimator ? limit [3]. A decisive role is played by an assumption on the eighth moments2 in the eigenbasis: Assumption 2 (A2, Ledoit/Wolf 2004 [3]). There exists a constant K2 independent of n such that p?1 n pn X n 8 E[(yi1 ) ] ? K2 . i=1 3 Implicit assumptions on the covariance structure From the assumption on the eighth moments in the eigenbasis, we derive requirements on the eigenvalues which facilitate an empirical check: Theorem 1 (largest eigenvalue growth rate). Let A2 hold. Then, there exists a limit on the growth rate of the largest eigenvalue   ?1n = max Var(yin ) = O p1/4 . n i Theorem 2 (dispersion growth rate). Let A2 hold. Then, there exists a limit on the growth rate of the normalized eigenvalue dispersion X X dn = p?1 (?i ? p?1 ?j )2 = O (1) . n n i j 1 We shall often drop the sequence index n and the observation index t to improve readability of formulas. eighth moments arise because Var(Sij ), the variance of the sample covariance, is of fourth order and has to converge. Nevertheless, even for for non-Gaussian data convergence is fast. 2 2 model A model B dispersion and largest EV 4 40 model B 20 100 10 50 sample dispersion max(EV) 3.5 30 3 20 2.5 10 2 100 200 300 400 0 500 0 100 200 300 400 max(EV) covariance matrices normalized sample dispersion model A 0 500 dimensionality Figure 1: Covariance matrices and dependency of the largest eigenvalue/dispersion on the dimensionality. Average over 100 repetitions. normalized sample dispersion 600 10 sample dispersion max(EV) 100 BCI EEG data 40 200 100 200 20 20 100 50 100 400 5 50 0 0 ISOLET spoken letters 40 200 0 500 1000 #assets 0 0 100 200 #pixels 0 0 0 dimensionality 200 400 #features 0 600 0 0 200 #features max(EV) USPS hand?written digits US stock market 150 0 400 Figure 2: Dependency of the largest eigenvalue/dispersion on the dimensionality. Average over 100 random subsets. The theorems restrict the covariance structure of the sequence of models when the dimensionality increases. To illustrate this, we design two sequences of models A and B indexed by their dimensionality p, in which dimensions xpi are correlated with a signal sp : xpi  = (0.5 + bpi ) ? ?pi + ?cpi sp , with probability PsA/B (i), (0.5 + bpi ) ? ?pi , else. (4) where bpi and cpi are uniform random from [0, 1], sp and pi are standard normal, ? = 1, PsB (i) = 0.2 and PsA (i) = (i/10 + 1)?7/8 (power law decay). To avoid systematic errors, we hold the ratio of observations to dimensions fixed: np /p = 2. To the left in Figure 1, covariance matrices are shown: For model A, the matrix is dense in the upper left corner, the more dimensions we add the more sparse the matrix gets. For model B, correlations are spread out evenly. To the right, normalized sample dispersion and largest eigenvalue are shown. For model A, we see the behaviour from the theorems: the dispersion is bounded, the largest eigenvalue grows with the fourth root. For model B, there is a linear dependency of both dispersion and largest eigenvalue: A2 is violated. For real world data, we measure the dependency of the largest eigenvalue/dispersion on the dimensionality by averaging over random subsets. Figure 2 shows the results for four data sets3 : (1) New York Stock Exchange, (2) USPS hand-written digits, (3) ISOLET spoken letters and (4) a Brain Computer Interface EEG data set. The largest eigenvalues and the normalized dispersions (see Figure 2) closely resemble model B; a linear dependence on the dimensionality which violates A2 is visible. 3 for details on the data sets, see section 5. 3 4 Analytic shrinkage for arbitrary covariance structures We replace A2 by a weaker assumption on the moments in the basis of the observations X which does not impose any constraints on the covariance structure4 : Assumption 20 (A20 ). There exists a constant K2 independent of p such that ?1 p p X E[(xpi1 )8 ] ? K2 . i=1 Standard assumptions For the proof of consistency, the relationship between dimensionality and number of observations has to be defined and a weak restriction on the correlation of the products of uncorrelated variables is necessary. We use slightly modified versions of the original assumptions [3]. Assumption 10 (A10 , Kolmogorov asymptotics). There exists a constant K1 , 0 ? K1 ? ? independent of p such that lim p/np = K1 . p?? Assumption 30 (A30 ). P lim i,j,kl,l?Qp p p p p 2 Cov[yi1 yj1 , yk1 yl1 ] |Qp | p?? =0 where Qp is the set of all quadruples consisting of distinct integers between 1 and p. Additional Assumptions A10 to A30 subsume a wide range of dispersion and eigenvalue configurations. To investigate the role which this plays, we categorize sequences by adding an additional parameter k. It will prove essential for the limit behavior of optimal shrinkage and the consistency of analytic shrinkage: Assumption 4 (A4, growth rate of the normalized dispersion). Let ?i denote the eigenvalues of C. Then, the limit behaviour of the normalized dispersion is parameterized by k: X X  p?1 (?i ? p?1 ?j )2 = ? max(1, p2k?1 ) , i j where ? is the Landau Theta. In sequences of models with k ? 0.5 the normalized dispersion is bounded from above and below, as in model A in the last section. For k > 0.5 the normalized dispersion grows with the dimensionality, for k = 1 it is linear in p, as in model B. We make two technical assumptions to rule out degenerate cases. First, we assume that, on average, additional dimensions make a positive contribution to the mean variance: Assumption 5 (A5). There exists a constant K3 such that p?1 p X E[(xpi1 )2 ] ? K3 . i=1 Second, we assume that limits on the relation between second, fourth and eighth moments exist: Assumption 6 (A6, moment relation). ??4 , ?8 , ?4 and ?8 : 4 E[yi8 ] ? (1 + ?8 )E2 [yi4 ] E[yi4 ] ? (1 + ?4 )E2 [yi2 ] E[yi8 ] ? (1 + ?8 )E2 [yi4 ] E[yi4 ] ? (1 + ?4 )E2 [yi2 ] For convenience, we index the sequence of statistical models by p instead of n. 4 Figure 3: Illustration of orthogonal complement shrinkage. Theoretical results on limit behaviour and consistency We are able to derive a novel theorem which shows that under these wider assumptions, shrinkage remains consistent: Theorem 3 (Consistency of Shrinkage). Let A10 , A20 , A30 , A4, A5, A6 hold and  2  ? ? ? m = E (? ? ?)/? ? Then, independently of k, denote the expected squared relative error of the estimate ?. lim m = 0. p?? An unexpected caveat accompanying this result is the limit behaviour of the optimal shrinkage strength ?? : Theorem 4 (Limit behaviour). Let A10 , A20 , A30 , A4, A5, A6 hold. Then, there exist 0 < bl < bu < 1 k ? 0.5 k > 0.5 ?n : bl ? ?? ? bu lim ?? = 0 ? ? p?? The theorem shows that there is a fundamental problem with analytic shrinkage: if k is larger than 0.5 (all data sets in the last section had k = 1) there is no shrinkage in the limit. 5 Automatic orthogonal complement shrinkage Orthogonal complement shrinkage To obtain a finite shrinkage strength, we propose an extension of shrinkage we call oc-shrinkage: it leaves the first eigendirection untouched and performs shrinkage on the orthogonal complement oc of that direction. Figure 3 illustrates this approach. It shows a three dimensional true covariance matrix with a high dispersion that makes it highly ellipsoidal. The result is a high level of discrepancy between the spherical shrinkage target and the true covariance. The best convex combination of target and sample covariance will put extremely low weight on the target. The situation is different in the orthogonal complement of the first eigendirection of the sample covariance matrix: there, the discrepancy between sample covariance and target is strongly reduced. To simplify the theoretical analysis, let us consider the case where there is only a single growing eigenvalue while the remainder stays bounded: 5 Assumption 40 (A40 single large eigenvalue). Let us define zi = yi , 2 ? i ? p, z1 = p?k/2 y1 . There exist constants Fl and Fu such that Fl ? E[zi8 ] ? Fu A recent result from Random Matrix Theory [6] allows us to prove that the projection on the empir? oc ical orthogonal complement oc b does not affect the consistency of the estimator ? b: 0 0 0 0 Theorem 5 (consistency of oc-shrinkage). Let A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 , A5, A6 hold. In addition, assume that 16th moments5 of the yi exist and are bounded. Then, independently of k,  2 ? lim ?oc = 0, b ? arg min Qoc b (?) p?? ? where Q denotes the mean squared error (MSE) of the convex combination (cmp. eq. (2)). Automatic model selection Orthogonal complement shrinkage only yields an advantage if the first eigenvalue is large enough. Starting from eq. (2), we can consistently estimate the error of standard shrinkage and orthogonal complement shrinkage and only use oc-shrinkage when the difference b R,oc ? b is positive. In the supplemental material, we derive a formula of a conservative estimate: ?2 ? b R,cons.,oc b b ? m? ? ? ?b ? mE ? ? ?. b = ?R,oc ?R,oc c oc b E Usage of m? = 0.45 corresponds to 75% probability of improvement under gaussianity and yields good results in practice. The second term is relevant in small samples, setting mE = 0.1 is sufficient. A dataset may have multiple large eigenvalues. It is straightforward to iterate the procedure and thus automatically select the number of retained eigendirections r?. We call this automatic orthogonal complement shrinkage. An algorithm listing can be found in the supplemental. The computational cost of aoc-shrinkage is larger than that of standard shrinkage as it additionally requires an eigendecomposition O(p3 ) and some matrix multiplications O(? rp2 ). In the applications considered here, this additional cost is negligible: r?  p and the eigendecomposition can replace matrix inversions for LDA, QDA or portfolio optimization. 1 0.9 PRIAL 0.8 0.7 0.6 Shrinkage oc(1)?Shrinkage oc(2)?Shrinkage oc(3)?Shrinkage oc(4)?Shrinkage aoc?Shrinkage 0.5 0.4 1 10 2 10 dimensionality p Figure 4: Automatic selection of the number of eigendirections. Average over 100 runs. 6 Empirical validation Simulations To test the method, we extend model B (eq. (4), section 3) to three signals, Psi = (0.1, 0.25, 0.5). Figure 4 reports the percentage improvement in average loss over the sample covariance matrix,  EkS ? Ck ? EkCsh/oc?sh/aoc?sh ? Ck PRIAL Csh/oc?sh/aoc?sh = , EkS ? Ck 5 The existence of 16th moments is needed because we bound the estimation error in each direction by the maximum over all directions, an extremely conservative approximation. 6 Table 1: Portfolio risk. Mean absolute deviations?103 (mean squared deviations?106 ) of the resulting portfolios for the different covariance estimators and markets. ? := aoc-shrinkage significantly better than this model at the 5% level, tested by a randomization test. US EU HK sample covariance 8.56? (156.1? ) 5.93? (78.9? ) 6.57? (81.2? ) standard shrinkage 6.27? (86.4? ) 4.43? (46.2? ) 6.32? (76.2? ) ? ? 0.09 0.12 0.10 shrinkage to a factor model 5.56? (69.6? ) 4.00? (39.1? ) 6.17? (72.9? ) ? ? 0.41 0.44 0.42 aoc-shrinkage 5.41 (67.0) 3.83 (36.3) 6.11 (71.8) ? ? 0.75 0.79 0.75 average r? 1.64 1.17 1.41 Table 2: Accuracies for classification tasks on ISOLET and USPS data. ? := significantly better than all compared methods at the 5% level, tested by a randomization test. ISOLET USPS ntrain 500 2000 5000 500 2000 5000 LDA 75.77% 92.29% 94.1% 72.31% 87.45% 89.56% LDA (shrinkage) 88.92% 93.25% 94.3% 83.77% 88.37% 89.77% ? ? ? ? LDA (aoc) 89.69% 93.42% 94.33% 83.95% 88.37% 89.77% QDA 2.783% 4.882% 14.09% 10.11% 49.45% 72.43% QDA (shrinkage) 58.57% 75.4% 79.25% 82.2% 88.85% 89.67% ? QDA (aoc) 59.51% 80.84% 87.35% 83.31% 89.4% 90.07% of standard shrinkage, oc-shrinkage for one to four eigendirections and aoc-shrinkage. ? and therefore the PRIAL tend to zero in Standard shrinkage behaves as predicted by Theorem 4: ? the large n, p limit. The same holds for orders of oc-shrinkage ?oc(1) and oc(2)? lower than the number of signals, but performance degrades more slowly. For small dimensionalities eigenvalues are small and therefore there is no advantage for oc-shrinkage. On the contrary, the higher the order of oc-shrinkage, the larger the error by projecting out spurious large eigenvalues which should have been subject to regularization. The automatic order selection aoc-shrinkage leads to close to optimal PRIAL for all dimensionalities. Real world data I: portfolio optimization Covariance estimates are needed for the minimization of portfolio risk [7]. Table 1 shows portfolio risk for approximately eight years of daily return data from 1200 US, 600 European and 100 Hong Kong stocks, aggregated from Reuters tick data [8]. Estimation of covariance matrices is based on short time windows (150 days) because of the data?s nonstationarity. Despite the unfavorable ratio of observations to dimensionality, standard shrinkage ? the stocks are highly correlated and the spherical target is highly inapprohas very low values of ?: priate. Shrinkage to a financial factor model incorporating the market factor [9] provides a better target; it leads to stronger shrinkage and better portfolios. Our proposed aoc-shrinkage yields even stronger shrinkage and significantly outperforms all compared methods. Table 3: Accuracies for classification tasks on BCI data. Artificially injected noise in one electrode. ? := significantly better than all compared methods at the 5% level, tested by a randomization test. ?noise 0 10 30 100 300 1000 LDA 92.28% 92.28% 92.28% 92.28% 92.28% 92.28% LDA (shrinkage) 92.39% 92.94% 92.18% 88.04% 82.15% 73.79% ? ? ? ? ? ? LDA (aoc) 93.27% 93.27% 93.24% 92.88% 93.16% 93.19% average r? 2.0836 3.0945 3.0891 3.0891 3.0891 3.09 7 0.0932 0.0631 0.2532 0.0466 0.0316 0.1266 0 0 0 ?0.0466 ?0.0316 ?0.1266 ?0.0932 ?0.0631 ?0.2532 Figure 5: High variance components responsible for failure of shrinkage in BCI. ?noise = 10. Subject 1. Real world data II: USPS and ISOLET We applied Linear and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (LDA and QDA) to hand-written digit recognition (USPS, 1100 observations with 256 pixels for each of the 10 digits [10]) and spoken letter recognition (ISOLET, 617 features, 7797 recordings of 26 spoken letters [11], obtained from the UCI ML Repository [12]) to assess the quality of standard and aoc-shrinkage covariance estimates. Table 2 shows that aoc-shrinkage outperforms standard shrinkage for QDA and LDA on both data sets for different training set sizes. Only for LDA and large sample sizes on the relatively low dimensional USPS data, there is no difference between standard and aoc-shrinkage: the automatic procedure decides that shrinkage on the whole space is optimal. Real world data III: Brain-Computer-Interface The BCI data was recorded in a study in which 11 subjects had to distinguish between noisy and noise-free phonemes [13, 14]. We applied LDA on 427 standardized features calculated from event related potentials in 61 electrodes to classify two conditions: correctly identified noise-free and correctly identified noisy phonemes (ntrain = 1000). For Table 3, we simulated additive noise in a random electrode (100 repetitions). With and without noise, our proposed aoc-shrinkage outperforms standard shrinkage LDA. Without noise, r? ? 2 high variance directions ?probably corresponding to ocular and facial muscle artefacts, depicted to the left in Figure 5? are left untouched by aoc-shrinkage. With injected noise, the number of directions increases to r? ? 3, as the procedure detects the additional high variance component ?to the right in Figure 5? and adapts the shrinkage procedure such that performance remains unaffected. For standard shrinkage, noise affects the analytic regularization and performance degrades as a result. 7 Discussion Analytic shrinkage is a fast and accurate alternative to cross-validation which yields comparable performance, e.g. in prediction tasks and portfolio optimization. This paper has contributed by clarifying the (limited) applicability of the analytic shrinkage formula. In particular we could show that its assumptions are often violated in practice since real world data has complex structured dependencies. We therefore introduced a set of more general assumptions to shrinkage theory, chosen such that the appealing consistency properties of analytic shrinkage are preserved. We have shown that for typcial structure in real world data, strong eigendirections adversely affect shrinkage by driving the shrinkage strength to zero. Therefore, finally, we have proposed an algorithm which automatically restricts shrinkage to the orthogonal complement of the strongest eigendirections if appropriate. This leads to improved robustness and significant performance enhancement in simulations and on real world data from the domains of finance, spoken letter and optical character recognition, and neuroscience. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the World Class University Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology, under Grant R31-10008. We thank Gilles Blanchard, Duncan Blythe, Thorsten Dickhaus, Irene Winkler and Anne Porbadnik for valuable comments and discussions. 8 References [1] Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Springer, 2008. [2] Charles Stein. Inadmissibility of the usual estimator for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution. In Proc. 3rd Berkeley Sympos. Math. Statist. Probability, volume 1, pages 197?206, 1956. [3] Olivier Ledoit and Michael Wolf. A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 88(2):365?411, 2004. [4] Jerome. H. Friedman. Regularized discriminant analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(405):165?175, 1989. [5] Juliane Sch?afer and Korbinian Strimmer. A shrinkage approach to large-scale covariance matrix estimation and implications for functional genomics. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 4(1):1175?1189, 2005. [6] Boaz Nadler. Finite sample approximation results for principal component analysis: A matrix perturbation approach. The Annals of Statistics, 36(6):2791?2817, 2008. [7] Harry Markowitz. Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, VII(1):77?91, March 1952. [8] Daniel Bartz, Kerr Hatrick, Christian W. Hesse, Klaus-Robert M?uller, and Steven Lemm. Directional Variance Adjustment: Bias reduction in covariance matrices based on factor analysis with an application to portfolio optimization. PLoS ONE, 8(7):e67503, 07 2013. [9] Olivier Ledoit and Michael Wolf. Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection. Journal of Empirical Finance, 10:603?621, 2003. [10] Jonathan J. Hull. A database for handwritten text recognition research. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 16(5):550?554, May 1994. [11] Mark A Fanty and Ronald Cole. Spoken letter recognition. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 3, pages 220?226, 1990. [12] Kevin Bache and Moshe Lichman. UCI machine learning repository. University of California, Irvine, School of Information and Computer Sciences, 2013. [13] Anne Kerstin Porbadnigk, Jan-Niklas Antons, Benjamin Blankertz, Matthias S Treder, Robert Schleicher, Sebastian M?oller, and Gabriel Curio. Using ERPs for assessing the (sub)conscious perception of noise. In 32nd Annual Intl Conf. of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, pages 2690?2693, 2010. [14] Anne Kerstin Porbadnigk, Matthias S Treder, Benjamin Blankertz, Jan-Niklas Antons, Robert Schleicher, Sebastian M?oller, Gabriel Curio, and Klaus-Robert M?uller. Single-trial analysis of the neural correlates of speech quality perception. Journal of neural engineering, 10(5):056003, 2013. 9
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Robust Spatial Filtering with Beta Divergence Wojciech Samek1,4 1 Duncan Blythe1,4 1,2 ? Klaus-Robert Muller Motoaki Kawanabe3 Machine Learning Group, Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin), Berlin, German 2 Department of Brain and Cognitive Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Korea 3 ATR Brain Information Communication Research Laboratory Group, Kyoto, Japan 4 Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Berlin, Germany Abstract The efficiency of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) largely depends upon a reliable extraction of informative features from the high-dimensional EEG signal. A crucial step in this protocol is the computation of spatial filters. The Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) algorithm computes filters that maximize the difference in band power between two conditions, thus it is tailored to extract the relevant information in motor imagery experiments. However, CSP is highly sensitive to artifacts in the EEG data, i.e. few outliers may alter the estimate drastically and decrease classification performance. Inspired by concepts from the field of information geometry we propose a novel approach for robustifying CSP. More precisely, we formulate CSP as a divergence maximization problem and utilize the property of a particular type of divergence, namely beta divergence, for robustifying the estimation of spatial filters in the presence of artifacts in the data. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method on toy data and on EEG recordings from 80 subjects. 1 Introduction Spatial filtering is a crucial step in the reliable decoding of user intention in Brain-Computer Interfacing (BCI) [1, 2]. It reduces the adverse effects of volume conduction and simplifies the classification problem by increasing the signal-to-noise-ratio. The Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) [3, 4, 5, 6] method is one of the most widely used algorithms for computing spatial filters in motor imagery experiments. A spatial filter computed with CSP maximizes the differences in band power between two conditions, thus it aims to enhance detection of the synchronization and desynchronization effects occurring over different locations of the sensorimotor cortex after performing motor imagery. It is well known that CSP may provide poor results when artifacts are present in the data or when the data is non-stationary [7, 8]. Note that artifacts in the data are often unavoidable and can not always be removed by preprocessing, e.g. with Independent Component Analysis. They may be due to eye movements, muscle movements, loose electrodes, sudden changes of attention, circulation, respiration, external events, among the many possibilities. A straight forward way to robustify CSP against overfitting is to regularize the filters or the covariance matrix estimation [3, 7, 9, 10, 11]. Several other strategies have been proposed for estimating spatial filters under non-stationarity [12, 8, 13, 14]. In this work we propose a novel approach for robustifying CSP inspired from recent results in the field of information geometry [15, 16]. We show that CSP may be formulated as a divergence maximization problem, in particular we prove by using Cauchy?s interlacing theorem [17] that the spatial filters found by CSP span a subspace with maximum symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence between the distributions of both classes. In order to robustify the CSP algorithm against the influence of outliers we propose solving the divergence maximization problem with a particular type of 1 divergence, namely beta divergence. This divergence has been successfully used for robustifying algorithms such as Independent Component Analysis (ICA) [18] and Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) [19]. In order to capture artifacts on a trial-by-trial basis we reformulate the CSP problem as sum of trial-wise divergences and show that our method downweights the influence of artifactual trials, thus it robustly integrates information from all trials. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces the divergence-based framework for CSP. Section 3 describes the beta-divergence CSP method and discusses its robustness property. Section 4 evaluates the method on toy data and EEG recordings from 80 subjects and interprets the performance improvement. Section 5 concludes the paper with a discussion. An implementation of our method is available at http://www.divergence-methods.org. 2 Divergence-Based Framework for CSP Spatial filters computed by the Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) [3, 4, 5] algorithm have been widely used in Brain-Computer Interfacing as they are well suited to discriminate between distinct motor imagery patterns. A CSP spatial filter w maximizes the variance of band-pass filtered EEG signals in one condition while minimizing it in the other condition. Mathematically the CSP solution can be obtained by solving the generalized eigenvalue problem ?1 wi = ?i ?2 wi (1) where ?1 and ?2 are the estimated (average) D ? D covariance matrices of class 1 and 2, respectively. Note that the spatial filters W = [w1 . . . wD ] can be sorted by importance ?1 = max{?1 , ?11 } > . . . > ?D = max{?D , ?1D }. 2.1 divCSP Algorithm Information geometry [15] has provided useful frameworks for developing various machine learning (ML) algorithms, e.g. by optimizing divergences between two different probability distributions [20] [21]. In particular, a series of robust ML methods have been successfully obtained from Bregman divergences which are generalization of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence [22]. Among them, we employ in this work the beta divergence. Before proposing our novel algorithm, we show that CSP can also be interpreted as maximization of the symmetric KL divergence. Theorem 1: Let W = [w1 . . . wd ] be the d top (sorted by ?i ) spatial filters computed by CSP and let ? be a d ? D dimensional ?1 and ?2 denote the covariance matrices of class 1 and 2. Let V> = RP matrix that can be decomposed into a whitening projection P ? RD?D (P(?1 + ?2 )P> = I) and ? ? Rd?D . Then an orthogonal projection R span(W) = span(V? ) (2)  ? > > ? with V = argmax Dkl V ?1 V || V ?2 V (3) V ? kl (? || ?) denotes the symmetric Kullback-Leibler Divergence1 between zero mean Gauswhere D sians and span(M) stands for the subspace spanned by the columns of matrix M. Note that [23] has provided a proof for the special case of one spatial filter, i.e. for V ? RD?1 . Proof: See appendix and supplement material. The objective function that is maximized in Eq. (3) can be written as   1 1 Lkl (V) = tr (V> ?1 V)?1 (V> ?2 V) + tr (V> ?2 V)?1 (V> ?1 V) ? d. (4) 2 2 In order to cater for artifacts on a trial-by-trial basis we need to reformulate the above objective function. Instead of maximizing the divergence between the average class distributions we propose to optimize the sum of trial-wise divergences Lsumkl (V) = N X  ? kl V> ?i V || V> ?i V , D 1 2 i=1 1 The symmetric Kullback-Leibler Divergence between distributions f (x) and g(x) is defined as R R (x) ? Dkl (f (x) || g(x)) = f (x) ? log fg(x) dx + g(x) ? log fg(x) dx. (x) 2 (5) where ?i1 and ?i2 denote the covariance matrices estimated from the i-th trial of class 1 and class 2, respectively, and N is the number of trials per class. Note that the reformulated problem is not equivalent to CSP; in Eq. (4) averaging is performed w.r.t. the covariance matrices, whereas in Eq. (5) it is performed w.r.t. the divergences. We denote the former approach by kl-divCSP and the latter one by sumkl-divCSP. The following theorem relates both approaches in the asymptotic case. Theorem 2: Suppose that the number of discriminative sources is one; then let c be such that D/n ? c as D, n ? ? (D dimensions, n data points per trial). Then if there exists ?(c) with N/D ? ?(c) for N ? ? (N the number of trials) then the empirical maximizer of Lsumkl (v) (and of course also of Lkl (v)) converges almost surely to the true solution. Sketched Proof: See appendix. Thus Theorem 2 says that both divergence-based CSP variants kl-divCSP and sumkl-divCSP almost surely converge to the same (true) solution in the asymptotic case. The theorem can be easily extended to multiple discriminative sources. 2.2 Optimization Framework We use the methods developed in [24], [25] and [26] for solving the maximization problems in Eq. (4) and Eq. (5). The projection V ? RD?d to the d-dimensional subspace can be decomposed into three parts, namely V> = Id RP where Id is an identity matrix truncated to the first d rows, R is a rotation matrix with RR> = I and P is a whitening matrix. The optimization process consists of finding the rotation R that maximizes our objective function and can be performed by gradient descent on the manifold of orthogonal matrices. More precisely, we start with an orthogonal matrix R0 and find an orthogonal update U in the k-th step such that Rk+1 = URk . The update matrix is chosen by identifying the direction of steepest descent in the set of orthogonal transformations and then performing a line search along this direction to find the optimal step. Since the basis of the extracted subspace is arbitrary (one can right multiply a rotation matrix to V without changing the divergence), we select the principal axes of the data distribution of one class (after projection) as basis in order to maximally separate the two classes. The optimization process is summarized in Algorithm 1 and explained in the supplement material of the paper. Algorithm 1 Divergence-based Framework for CSP 1: function DIV CSP(?1 , ?2 , d) 1 2: Compute the whitening matrix P = ?? 2 3: Initialise R0 with a random rotation matrix 4: Whiten and rotate the data ?c = (R0 P)?c (R0 P)> with c = {1, 2} 5: repeat 6: Compute the gradient matrix and determine the step size (see supplement material) 7: Update the rotation matrix Rk+1 = URk 8: Apply the rotation to the data ?c = U?c U> 9: until convergence 10: Let V> = Id Rk+1 P 11: Rotate V by G ? Rd?d where G are eigenvectors of V> ?1 V 12: return V 13: end function 3 Beta Divergence CSP Robustness is a desirable property of algorithms that work in data setups which are known to be contaminated by outliers. For example, in the biomedical fields, signals such as EEG may be highly affected by artifacts, i.e. outliers, which may drastically influence statistical estimation. Note that both of the above approaches kl-divCSP and sumkl-divCSP are not robust w.r.t. artifacts as they both perform simple (non-robust) averaging of the covariance matrices and of the divergence terms, respectively. In this section we show that by using beta divergence we robustify the averaging of the divergence terms as beta divergence downweights the influence of outlier trials. 3 Beta divergence was proposed in [16, 27] and is defined (for ? > 0) as Z Z 1 1 ? ? D? (f (x) || g(x)) = (f (x) ? g (x))f (x)dx ? (f ?+1 (x) ? g ?+1 (x))dx, ? ?+1 (6) where f (x) and g(x) are two probability distributions. Like every statistical divergence it is always positive and equals zero iff g = f [15]. The symmetric version of beta divergence ? ? (f (x) || g(x)) = D? (f (x) || g(x)) + D? (g(x) || f (x)) can be interpreted as discrepancy D between two probability distributions. One can show easily that beta and Kullback-Leibler divergence coincide as ? ? 0. In the context of parameter estimation, one can show that minimizing the divergence function from an empirical distribution p to the statistical model q(?) is equivalent to maximizing the ?-likelihood ? ? (?) L ? ? ? (q(?)) argmin D? (p || q(?)) = argmax L ? q(?) (7) q(?) n X exp(?z) ? 1 ? ? (q(?)) = 1 with L ?? (`(xi , q(?))) ? b?? (?) and ?? (z) = , ? n i=1 ? (8) where `(xi R, q(?)) denotes the log-likelihood of observation xi and distribution q(?), and b?? (?) := (? + 1)?1 q(?)?+1 dx. Basu et al. [27] showed that the ?-likelihood method weights each observation according to the magnitude of likelihood evaluated at the observation; if an observation is an outlier, i.e. of lower likelihood, then it is downweighted. Thus, beta divergence allows to construct robust estimators as samples with low likelihood are downweighted (see also M-estimators [28]). ?-divCSP Algorithm We propose applying beta divergence to the objective function in Eq. (5) in order to downweight the influence of artifacts in the computation of spatial filters. An overview over the different divergencebased CSP variants is provided in Figure 1. The objective function of our ?-divCSP approach is X  ? ? VT ?i1 V || VT ?i2 V L? (V) = D (9) i = Z  Z Z Z 1X ?+1 ?+1 ? ? gi dx + fi dx ? fi gi dx ? fi gi dx , ? i (10)   ? i and gi = N 0, ? ? i being the zero-mean Gaussian distributions with prowith fi = N 0, ? 1 2 ? i = VT ?i V ? Rd?d and ? ? i = VT ?i V ? Rd?d , respectively. jected covariances ? 1 1 2 2 One can show easily (see the supplement file to this paper) that L? (V) has an explicit form   X ? i |? ?2 + |? ? i |? ?2 ? (? + 1) d2 |? ? i | 1?? ?i + ? ? i |? 12 + |? ? i | 1?? ?i + ? ? i |? 12 2 |? ? 2 |? ? ? |? , (11) 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 i q with ? = ?1 (2?)?d1(?+1)d . We use Algorithm 1 to maximize the objective function of ?-divCSP. In the following we show that the robustness property of ?-divCSP can be directly understood from inspection of its objective function. ? i and ? ? i are full rank d ? d covariance matrices. We investigate the behaviour of the Assume ? 1 2 ? i is constant and ? ? i becomes very objective functions of ?-divCSP and sumkl-divCSP when ? 1 2 large, e.g. because it is affected by artifacts. It is not hard to see that for ? > 0 the objective ? i becomes arbitrarily large. The first term function L? does not go to infinity but is constant as ? 2 ? ? i |? 2 is constant with respect to changes of ? ? i and all the other terms of the objective function |? 1 2 ? i increases. Thus the influence function of the ?-divCSP estimator is bounded w.r.t. go to zero as ? 2 ? i (the same argument holds for changes of ? ? i ). Note that this robustness property changes in ? 2 1  ? i )?1 ? ? i is vanishes when applying Kullback-Leibler divergences Eq. (4) as the trace term tr (? 1 2 ? i becomes arbitrarily large, thus this artifactual term will dominate the solution. not bounded when ? 2 4 CSP robust sum -divCSP -divCSP -divCSP Figure 1: Relation between the different CSP formulations outlined in this paper. 4 4.1 Experimental Evaluation Simulations In order to investigate the effects of artifactual trials on CSP and ?-divCSP we generate data x(t) using the following mixture model  dis  s (t) x(t) = A ndis + , (12) s (t) where A ? R10?10 is a random orthogonal mixing matrix, sdis is a discriminative source sampled from a zero mean Gaussian with variance 1.8 in one condition and 0.2 in the other one, sndis are 9 sources with variance 1 in both conditions and  is a noise variable with variance 2. We generate 100 trials per condition, each consisting of 200 data points. Furthermore we randomly add artifacts with variance 10 independently to each data dimension (i.e. virtual electrode) and trial with varying probability and evaluate the angle between the true filter extracting the source activity of sdis and the spatial filter computed by CSP and ?-divCSP. The median angles are shown in Figure 2 using 100 repetitions. One can clearly see that the angle error between the spatial filter extracted by CSP and the true one increases with larger artifact probability. Furthermore one can see from the figure that using very small ? values does not attenuate the artefact problem, but it rather increases the error by adding up trial-wise divergences without downweighting outliers. However, as the ? value increases the artifactual trials are downweighted and a robust average is computed over the trial-wise divergence terms. This increased robustness significantly reduces the angle error. prob. of outlier 0 prob. of outlier 0.001 40 80 angle error (in ?) 60 60 40 CSP ?-divCSP 60 40 60 40 80 angle error (in ?) angle error (in ?) 80 60 40 60 40 0.75 1 0.5 0.25 0.1 0.01 0.001 beta value 2 1.5 0.75 1 0.5 0.25 0.1 0.01 0.001 2 1.5 0.75 1 0 0.5 0 0.25 0 0.1 20 0.01 20 0.001 20 beta value 2 beta value prob. of outlier 0.05 1.5 beta value prob. of outlier 0.02 2 beta value prob. of outlier 0.01 1.5 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.1 0.01 0.001 2 1.5 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.1 0.01 0.001 2 1.5 1 0.75 0 0.5 0 0.25 0 0.1 20 0.01 20 0.001 20 80 angle error (in ?) prob. of outlier 0.005 80 angle error (in ?) angle error (in ?) 80 beta value Figure 2: Angle between the true spatial filter and the filter computed by CSP and ?-divCSP for different probabilities of artifacts. The robustness of our approach increases with the ? value and significantly outperforms the CSP solution. 5 4.2 Data Sets and Experimental Setup The data set [29] used for the evaluation contains EEG recordings from 80 healthy BCIinexperienced volunteers performing motor imagery tasks with the left and right hand or feet. The subjects performed motor imagery first in a calibration session and then in a feedback mode in which they were required to control a 1D cursor application. Activity was recorded from the scalp with multi-channel EEG amplifiers using 119 Ag/AgCl electrodes in an extended 10-20 system sampled at 1000 Hz (downsampled to 100 Hz) and a band-pass from 0.05 to 200 Hz. Three runs with 25 trials of each motor condition were recorded in the calibration session and the two best classes were selected; the subjects performed feedback with three runs of 100 trials. Both sessions were recorded on the same day. For the offline analysis we manually select 62 electrodes densely covering the motor cortex, extract a time segment located from 750ms to 3500ms after the cue indicating the motor imagery class and filter the signal in 8-30 Hz using a 5-th order Butterworth filter. We do not apply manual or automatic rejection of trials or electrodes and use six spatial filters for feature extraction. For classification we apply Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) after computing the logarithm of the variance on the spatially filtered data. We measure performance as misclassification rate and normalize the covariance matrices by dividing them by their traces. The parameter ? is selected from the set of 15 candidates {0, 0.0001, 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 5} by 5-fold cross-validation on the calibration data using minimal training error rate as selection criterion. For faster convergence we use the rotation part of the CSP solution as initial rotation matrix R0 . 4.3 Results We compare our ?-divCSP method with three CSP baselines using different estimators for the covariance matrices. The first baseline uses the standard empirical estimator, the second one applies a standard analytic shrinkage estimator [9] and the third one relies on the minimum covariance determinant (MCDE) estimate [30]. Note that the shrinkage estimator usually provides better estimates in small-sample settings, whereas MCDE is robust to outliers. In order to perform a fair comparison we applied MCDE over various ranges [0, 0.05, 0.1 . . . 0.5] of parameters and selected the best one by cross-validation (as with ?-divCSP). The MCDE parameter determines the expected proportion of artifacts in the data. The results are shown in Figure 3. Each circle denotes the error rate of one subject. One can see that the ?-divCSP method outperforms the baselines as most circles are below the solid line. Furthermore the performance increases are significant according to the one-sided Wilcoxon sign rank test as the p-values are smaller than 0.05. 40 20 60 ?-divCSP error rate [%] 60 ?-divCSP error rate [%] ?-divCSP error rate [%] 60 40 20 p = 0.0005 0 0 20 40 CSP error rate [%] 40 20 p = 0.0178 60 0 0 20 40 shrinkCSP error rate [%] p = 0.0407 60 0 0 20 40 MCDE+CSP error rate [%] 60 Figure 3: Performance results of the CSP, shrinkage + CSP and MCDE + CSP baselines compared to ?-divCSP. Each circle represents the error rate of one subject. Our method outperforms the baselines for circles that are below the solid line. The p-values of the one-sided Wilcoxon sign rank test are shown in the lower right corner. We made an interesting observation when analysing the subject with largest improvement over the CSP baseline; the error rates were 48.6% (CSP), 48.6% (MCDE+CSP) and 11.0% (?-divCSP). Over all ranges of MCDE parameters this subject has an error rate higher than 48% i.e. MCDE was not able help in this case. This example shows that ?-divCSP and MCDE are not equivalent. Enforcing robustness on the CSP algorithm may in some cases be better than enforcing robustness when estimating the covariance matrices. 6 In the following we study the robustness property of the ?-divCSP method on subject 74, the user with the largest improvement (CSP error rate: 48.6 % and ?-divCSP error rate: 11.0 %). The left panel of Figure 4 displays the activity pattern associated with the most important CSP filter of subject 74. One can clearly see that the pattern does not encode neurophysiologically relevant activity, but focuses on a single electrode, namely FFC6. When analysing the (filtered) EEG signal of this electrode one can identify a strong artifact in one of the trials. Since neither the empirical covariance estimator nor the CSP algorithm is robust to this kind of outliers, it dominates the solution. However, the resulting pattern is meaningless as it does not capture motor imaginary related activity. The right panel of Figure 4 shows the relative importance of the divergence term of the artifactual trial with respect to the average divergence terms of the other trials. One can see that the divergence term computed from the artifactual trial is over 1800 times larger than the average of the other trials. This ratio decreases rapidly for larger ? values, thus the influence of the artifact decreases. Thus, our experiments provide an excellent example of the robustness property of the ?-divCSP approach. 2000 1800 artefact in FFC6 Percentage of artefact term 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 5 1.5 2 0.75 1 0.25 0.5 0.15 0.2 0.05 0.01 0.1 0.001 0 CSP pattern 0.0001 0 beta value Figure 4: Left: The CSP pattern of subject 74 does not reflect neurophysiological activity but it represents the artifact (red ellipse) in electrode FFC6. Right: The relative importance of this artifactual trial decreases with the ? parameters. The relative importance is measured as quotient between the divergence term of the artifactual trial and the average divergence terms of the other trials. 5 Discussion Analysis of EEG data is challenging because the signal of interest is typically present with a low signal to noise ratio. Moreover artifacts and non-stationarity require robust algorithms. This paper has placed its focus on a robust estimation and proposed a novel algorithm family giving rise to a beta divergence algorithm which allows robust spatial filter computation for BCI. In the very common setting where EEG electrodes become loose or movement related artifacts occur in some trials, it is a practical necessity to either ignore these trials (which reduces an already small sample size further) or to enforce intrinsic invariance to these disturbances into the learning procedures. Here, we have used CSP, the standard filtering technique in BCI, as a starting point and reformulated it in terms of an optimization problem maximizing the divergence between the class-distributions that correspond to two cognitive states. By borrowing the concept of beta divergences, we could adapt the optimization problem and arrive at a robust spatial filter computation based on CSP. We showed that our novel method can reduce the influence of artifacts in the data significantly and thus allows to robustly extract relevant filters for BCI applications. In future work we will investigate the properties of other divergences for Brain-Computer Interfacing and consider also further applications like ERP-based BCIs [31] and beyond the neurosciences. Acknowledgment We thank Daniel Bartz and Frank C. Meinecke for valuable discussions. This work was supported by the German Research Foundation (GRK 1589/1), by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the project Adaptive BCI (FKZ 01GQ1115) and by the Brain Korea 21 Plus Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education. 7 Appendix Sketch of proof of Theorem 1 Cauchy?s interlacing theorem [17] establishes a relation between the eigenvalues ?1 ? . . . ? ?D of the original covariance matrix ? and the eigenvalues ?1 ? . . . ? ?d of the projected one V?V> . The theorem says that ?j ? ?j ? ?D?d+j . In the proof we split the optimal projection V? into two parts U1 ? Rk?D and U2 ? Rd?k?D based on whether the first or second trace term in Eq. (4) is larger when applying the spatial filters. By using Cauchy?s theorem we then show that Lkl (U) ? Lkl (W) where W consists of k eigenvectors with largest eigenvalues; equality only holds if U and W coincide (up to linear transformations). We show an analogous relation for U2 and conclude that V? must be the CSP solution (up to linear transformations). See the full proof in the supplement material. Sketch of the proof of Theorem 2 Since there is only one discriminative direction we may perform analysis in a basis whereby the covariances of both classes have the form diag(a, 1, . . . , 1) and diag(b, 1, . . . , 1). If we show in this basis that consistency holds then it is a simple matter to prove consistency in the original basis. We want to show that as the number of trials N increases the filter provided by sumkl-divCSP converges to the true solution v? . If the support of the density of the eigenvalues includes a region around 0, then there is no hope of showing that the matrix inversion is stable. However, it has been shown in the random matrix theory literature [32] that if D and n tend to ? in a ratio c = D n then all of ? ? the eigenvalues apart from the largest lie between (1 ? c)2 and (1 + c)2 whereas the largest ? sample eigenvalue (? denotes the true non-unit eigenvalue) converges almost surely to ? + c ??1 ? provided ? > 1 + c, independently of the distribution of the data; a similar result applies if one true eigenvalue is smaller than the rest. This implies that for sufficient discriminability in the true distribution and sufficiently many data points per trial, each filter maximizing each term in the sum has non-zero dot-product with the true maximizing filter. 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B IG & Q UIC: Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation for a Million Variables Cho-Jui Hsieh, M?aty?as A. Sustik, Inderjit S. Dhillon, Pradeep Ravikumar Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Austin {cjhsieh,sustik,inderjit,pradeepr}@cs.utexas.edu Russell A. Poldrack Department of Psychology and Neurobiology University of Texas at Austin [email protected] Abstract The `1 -regularized Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has been shown to have strong statistical guarantees in recovering a sparse inverse covariance matrix even under high-dimensional settings. However, it requires solving a difficult non-smooth log-determinant program with number of parameters scaling quadratically with the number of Gaussian variables. State-of-the-art methods thus do not scale to problems with more than 20, 000 variables. In this paper, we develop an algorithm B IG QUIC, which can solve 1 million dimensional `1 regularized Gaussian MLE problems (which would thus have 1000 billion parameters) using a single machine, with bounded memory. In order to do so, we carefully exploit the underlying structure of the problem. Our innovations include a novel block-coordinate descent method with the blocks chosen via a clustering scheme to minimize repeated computations; and allowing for inexact computation of specific components. In spite of these modifications, we are able to theoretically analyze our procedure and show that B IG QUIC can achieve super-linear or even quadratic convergence rates. 1 Introduction Let {y1 , y2 , . . . , yn } be n samples drawn from a p-dimensional Gaussian distribution N (?, ?), also known as a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF). An important problem is that of recovering the covariance matrix (or its inverse) of this distribution, given the n samples, in a high-dimensional regime where n  p. A popular approach involves leveraging the structure of sparsity in the inverse covariance matrix, and solving the following `1 -regularized maximum likelihood problem: arg min{? log det ? + tr(S?) + ?k?k1 } = arg min f (?), (1) ?0 ?0 Pn Pn where S = n1 i=1 (yi ? ? ?)(yi ? ? ?)T is the sample covariance matrix and ? ? = n1 i=1 yi is the sample mean. While the non-smooth log-determinant program in (1) is usually considered a difficult optimization problem to solve, due in part to its importance, there has been a long line of recent work on algorithms to solve (1): see [7, 6, 3, 16, 17, 18, 15, 11] and references therein. The state-of-the-art seems to be a second order method QUIC [9] that has been shown to achieve super-linear convergence rates. Complementary techniques such as exact covariance thresholding [13, 19], and the divide and conquer approach of [8], have also been proposed to speed up the solvers. However, as noted in [8], the above methods do not scale to problems with more than 20, 000 variables, and typically require several hours even for smaller dimensional problems involving ten thousand variables. There has been some interest in statistical estimators other than (1) that are more amenable to optimization: including solving node-wise Lasso regression problems [14] and the separable linear program based CLIME estimator [2]. However the caveat with these estimators is that they are not guaranteed to yield a positive-definite covariance matrix, and typically yield less accurate parameters. What if we want to solve the M -estimator in (1) with a million variables? Note that the number of parameters in (1) is quadratic in the number of variables, so that for a million variables, we would 1 have a trillion parameters. There has been considerable recent interest in such ?Big Data? problems involving large-scale optimization: these however are either targeted to ?big-n? problems with a lot of samples, unlike the constraint of ?big-p? with a large number of variables in our problem, or are based on large-scale distributed and parallel frameworks, which require a cluster of processors, as well as software infrastructure to run the programs over such clusters. At least one caveat with such large-scale distributed frameworks is that they would be less amenable to exploratory data analysis by ?lay users? of such GMRFs. Here we ask the following ambitious but simple question: can we solve the M -estimator in (1) with a million variables using a single machine with bounded memory? This might not seem like a viable task at all in general, but note that the optimization problem in (1) arises from a very structured statistical estimation problem: can we leverage the underlying structure to be able to solve such an ultra-large-scale problem? In this paper, we propose a new solver, B IG QUIC, to solve the `1 -regularized Gaussian MLE problem with extremely high dimensional data. Our method can solve one million dimensional problems with 1000 billion variables using a single machine with 32 cores and 32G memory. Our proposed method is based on the state-of-the-art framework of QUIC [9, 8]. The key bottleneck with QUIC stems from the memory required to store the gradient W = X ?1 of the iterates X, which is a dense p ? p matrix, and the computation of the log-determinant function of a p ? p matrix. A starting point to reduce the memory footprint is to use sparse representations for the iterates X and compute the elements of the empirical covariance matrix S on demand from the sample data points. In addition we also have to avoid the storage of the dense matrix X ?1 and perform intermediate computations involving functions of such dense matrices on demand. These naive approaches to reduce the memory however would considerably increase the computational complexity, among other caveats, which would make the algorithm highly impractical. To address this, we present three key innovations. Our first is to carry out the coordinate descent computations in a blockwise manner, and by selecting the blocks very carefully using an automated clustering scheme, we not only leverage sparsity of the iterates, but help cache computations suitably. Secondly, we reduce the computation of the log-determinant function to linear equation solving using the Schur decomposition that also exploits the symmetry of the matrices in question. Lastly, since the Hessian computation is a key bottleneck in the second-order method, we compute it inexactly. We show that even with these modifications and inexact computations, we can still guarantee not only convergence of our overall procedure, but can easily control the degree of approximation of Hessian to achieve super-linear or even quadratic convergence rates. Inspite of our low-memory footprint, these innovations allow us to beat the state of the art DC-QUIC algorithm (which has no memory limits) in computational complexity even on medium-size problems of a few thousand variables. Finally, we show how to parallelize our method in a multicore shared memory system. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we briefly review the QUIC algorithm and outline the difficulties of scaling QUIC to million dimensional data. Our algorithm is proposed in Section 3. We theoretically analyze our algorithm in Section 4, and present experimental results in Section 5. 2 Difficulties in scaling QUIC to million dimensional data Our proposed algorithm is based on the framework of QUIC [9]; which is a state of the art procedure for solving (1), based on a second-order optimization method. We present a brief review of the algorithm, and then explain the key bottlenecks that arise when scaling it to million dimensions. Since the objective function of (1) is non-smooth, we can separate the smooth and non-smooth part by f (X) = g(X) + h(X), where g(X) = ? log det X + tr(SX) and h(X) = ?kXk1 . QUIC is a second-order method that iteratively solves for a generalized Newton direction using coordinate descent; and then descends using this generalized Newton direction and line-search. To leverage the sparsity of the solution, the variables are partitioned into Sf ixed and Sf ree sets: Xij ? Sf ixed if |?ij g(X)| ? ?ij , and Xij = 0, Xij ? Sf ree otherwise. (2) Only the free set Sf ree is updated at each Newton iteration, reducing the number of variables to be updated to m = |Sf ree |, which is comparable to kX ? k0 , the sparsity of the solution. Difficulty in Approximating the Newton Direction. Let us first consider the generalized Newton direction for (1): D = arg min{? g (D) + h(X + D)}, (3) t D Xt t 1 where g?Xt (D) = g(Xt ) + tr(?g(Xt )T D) + vec(D)T ?2 g(Xt ) vec(D). (4) 2 ?1 ?1 ?1 2 In our problem ?g(Xt ) = S ? Xt and ? g(X) = Xt ? Xt , where ? denotes the Kronecker product of two matrices. When Xt is sparse, the Newton direction computation (3) can be solved 2 efficiently by coordinate descent [9]. The obvious implementation calls for the computation and storage of Wt = Xt?1 ; using this to compute a = Wij2 + Wii Wjj , b = Sij ? Wij + wiT Dwj , and c = Xij + Dij . Armed with these quantities, the coordinate descent update for variable Dij takes the form: Dij ? Dij ? c + S(c ? b/a, ?ij /a), (5) where S(z, r) = sign(z) max{|z| ? r, 0} is the soft-thresholding function. The key computational bottleneck here is in computing the terms wiT Dwj , which take O(p2 ) time when implemented naively. To address this, [9] proposed to store and maintain U = DW , which reduced the cost to O(p) flops per update. However, this is not a strategy we can use when dealing with very large data sets: storing the p by p dense matrices U and W in memory would be prohibitive. The straightforward approach is to compute (and recompute when necessary) the elements of W on demand, resulting in O(p2 ) time complexity. Our key innovation to address this is a novel block coordinate descent scheme, detailed in Section 3.1, that also uses clustering to strike a balance between memory use and computational cost while exploiting sparsity. The result is a procedure with comparable wall-time to that of QUIC on midsized problems and can scale up to very large problem instances that the original QUIC could not. Difficulty in the Line Search Procedure. After finding the generalized Newton direction Dt , QUIC then descends using this direction after a line-search via Armijo?s rule. Specifically, it selects the largest step size ? ? {? 0 , ? 1 , . . . } such that X + ?Dt is (a) positive definite, and (b) satisfies the following sufficient decrease condition: f (X + ?D? ) ? f (X) + ???, ? = tr(?g(X)T D? ) + kX + D? k1 ? kXk1 . (6) The key computational bottleneck is checking positive definiteness (typically by computing the smallest eigenvalue), and the computation of the determinant of a sparse matrix with dimension that can reach a million. As we show in Appendix 6.4, the time and space complexity of classical sparse Cholesky decomposition generally grows quadratically to dimensionality even when fixing the number of nonzero elements in the matrix, so it is nontrivial to address this problem. Our key innovation, detailed in Section 3.2, is an efficient procedure that checks both conditions (a) and (b) above using Schur complements and sparse linear equation solving. The computation only uses memory proportional to the number of nonzeros in the iterate. Many other difficulties arise when dealing with large sparse matrices in the sparse inverse covairance problem. We present some of them in Appendix 6.5. 3 Our proposed algorithm In this section, we describe our proposed algorithm, B IG QUIC, with the key innovations mentioned in the previous section. We assume that the iterates Xt have m nonzero elements, and that each iterate is stored in memory using a sparse format. We denote the size of the free set by s and observe that it is usually very small and just a constant factor larger than m? , the number of nonzeros in the final solution [9]. Also, the sample covariance matrix is stored in its factor form S = Y Y T , where Y is the normalized sample matrix. We now discuss a crucial element of B IG QUIC, our novel block coordinate descent scheme for solving each subproblem (3). 3.1 Block Coordinate Descent method The most expensive step during the coordinate descent update for Dij is the computation of wiT Dwj , where wi is the i-th column of W = X ?1 ; see (5). It is not possible to compute W = X ?1 with Cholesky factorization as was done in [9], nor can it be stored in memory. Note that wi is the solution of the linear system Xwi = ei . We thus use the conjugate gradient method (CG) to compute wi , leveraging the fact that X is a positive definite matrix. This solver requires only matrix vector products, which can be efficiently implemented for the sparse matrix X. CG has time complexity O(mT ), where T is the number of iterations required to achieve the desired accuracy. Vanilla Coordinate Descent. A single step of coordinate descent requires the solution of two linear systems Xwi = ei and Xwj = ej which yield the vectors wi , wj , and we can then compute wiT Dwj . The time complexity for each update would require O(mT +s) operations, and the overall complexity will be O(msT +s2 ) for one full sweep through the entire matrix. Even when the matrix is sparse, the quadratic dependence on nonzero elements is expensive. Our Approach: Block Coordinate Descent with memory cache scheme. In the following we present a block coordinate descent scheme that can accelerate the update procedure by storing and 3 reusing more results of the intermediate computations. The resulting increased memory use and speedup is controlled by the number of blocks employed, that we denote by k. Assume that only some columns of W are stored in memory. In order to update Dij , we need both wi and wj ; if either one is not directly available, we have to recompute it by CG and we call this a ?cache miss?. A good update sequence can minimize the cache miss rate. While it is hard to find the optimal sequence in general, we successfully applied a block by block update sequence with a careful clustering scheme, where the number of cache misses is sufficiently small. Assume we pick k such that we can store p/k columns of W (p2 /k elements) in memory. Suppose we are given a partition of N = {1, . . . , p} into k blocks, S1 , . . . , Sk . We divide matrix D into k ? k blocks accordingly. Within each block we run Tinner sweeps over variables within that block, and in the outer iteration we sweep through all the blocks Touter times. We use the notation WSq to denote a p by |Sq | matrix containing columns of W that corresponds to the subset Sq . Coordinate descent within a block. To update the variables in the block (Sz , Sq ) of D, we first compute WSz and WSq by CG and store it in memory, meaning that there is no cache miss during the within-block coordinate updates. With Usq = DWSq maintained, the update for Dij can be computed by wiT uj when i ? Sz and j ? Sq . After updating each Dij to Dij + ?, we can maintain USq by Uit ? Uit + ?Wjt , Ujt ? Ujt + ?Wit , ?t ? Sq . The above coordinate update computations cost only O(p/k) operations because we only update a subset of the columns. Observe that Urt never changes when r ? / {Sz ? Sq }. Therefore, we can use the following arrangement to further reduce the time complexity. Before running coordinate descent for the block we compute and store Pij = (wi )TSz?q? (uj )Sz?q? for all (i, j) in the free set of the current block, where Sz?q? = {i | i ? / Sz and i ? / Sq }. The term wiT uj for T T T updating Dij can then be computed by wi uj = Pij + wSz uSz + wSq uSq . With this trick, each coordinate descent step within the block only takes O(p/k) time, and we only need to store USz ,Sq , which only requires O(p2 /k 2 ) memory. Computing Pij takes O(p) time for each i, j, so if we update each coordinate Tinner times within a block, the time complexity is O(p + Tinner p/k) and the amortized cost per coordinate update is only O(p/Tinner + p/k). This time complexity suggests that we should run more iterations within each block. Sweeping through all the blocks. To go through all the blocks, each time we select a z ? {1, . . . , k} and updates blocks (Sz , S1 ), . . . , (Sz , Sk ). Since all of them share {wi | i ? Sz }, we first compute them and store in memory. When updating an off-diagonal block (Sz , Sq ), if the free sets are dense, we need to compute and store {wi | i ? Sq }. So totally each block of W will be computed k times. The total time complexity becomes O(kpmT ), where m is number of nonzeros in X and T is number of conjugate gradient iterations. Assume the nonzeros in X is close to the size of free set (m ? s), then each coordinate update costs O(kpT ) flops. Selecting the blocks using clustering. We now show that a careful selection of the blocks using a clustering scheme can lead to dramatic speedup for block coordinate descent. When updating variables in the block (Sz , Sq ), we would need the column wj only if some variable in {Dij | i ? Sz } lies in the free set. Leveraging this key observation, given two partitions Sz and Sq , we define the set of boundary nodes as: B(Sz , Sq ) ? {j | j ? Sq and ?i ? Sz s.t. Fij = 1}, where the matrix F is an indicator of the free set. P The number of columns to be computed in one sweep is then given by p + z6=q |B(Sz , Sq )|. P Therefore, we would like to find a partition {S1 , . . . , Sk } for which z6=q |B(Sz , Sq )| is minimal. It appears to be hard to find the partitioning that minimizes the number of boundary nodes. However, we P note that the number in question is bounded by the number of cross cluster edges: B(Sz , Sq ) < i?Sz ,j?Sq Fij . This suggests the use of graph clustering algorithms, such as METIS [10] or Graclus [5] which minimize the right hand side. Assuming that the ratio of between-cluster edges to the number of total edges is r, we observe a reduced time complexity of O((p+rm)T ) when computing elements of W , and r is very small in real datasets. In real datasets, when we converge to very sparse solutions, more than 95% of edges are in the diagonal blocks. In case of the fMRI dataset with p = 228483, we used 20 blocks, and the total number of boundary nodes were only |B| = 8697. Compared to block coordinate descent with random partition, which generally needs to compute 228483 ? 20 columns, the clustering resulted in the computation of 228483 + 8697 columns, thus achieved an almost 20 times speedup. In Appendix 6.6 we also discuss additional benefits of the graph clustering algorithm that results in accelerated convergence. 4 3.2 Line Search The line search step requires an efficient and scalable procedure that computes log det(A) and checks the positive definiteness of a sparse matrix A. We present a procedure that has complexity of at most O(mpT ) where T is the number of iterations used by the sparse linear solver. We note that computing log det(A) for a large sparse matrix A for which we only have a matrix-vector multiplication subroutine available is an interesting subproblem on its own and we expect that numerous other applications may benefit from the approach presented below. The following lemma can be proved by induction on p:   a bT Lemma 1. If A = is a partitioning of an arbitrary p ? p matrix, where a is a scalar b C, and b is a p ? 1 dimensional vector then det(A) = det(C)(a ? bT C ?1 b). Moreover, A is positive definite if and only if C is positive definite and (a ? bT C ?1 b) > 0. The above lemma allows us to compute the determinant by reducing it to solving linear systems; and also allows us to check positive-definiteness. Applying Lemma 1 recursively, we get p X log det A = log(Aii ? AT(i+1):p,i A?1 (7) (i+1):p,(i+1):p A(i+1):p,i ), i=1 where each Ai1 :i2 ,j1 :j2 denotes a submatrix of A with row indexes i1 , . . . , i2 and column indexes j1 , . . . , j2 . Each A?1 (i+1):p,(i+1):p A(i+1):p,i in the above formula can be computed as the solution of a linear system and hence we can avoid the storage of the (dense) inverse matrix. By Lemma 1, we can check the positive definiteness by verifying that all the terms in (7) are positive definite. Notice that we have to compute (7) in a reverse order (i = p, . . . , 1) to avoid the case that A(i+1):p,(i+1):p is non positive definite. 3.3 Summary of the algorithm In this section we present B IG QUIC as Algorithm 1. The detailed time complexity analysis are presented in Appendix 6.7. In summary, the time needed to compute the columns of W in block coordinate descent, O((p + |B|)mT Touter ), dominates the time complexity, which underscores the importance of minimizing the number of boundary nodes |B| via our clustering scheme. Algorithm 1: B IG QUIC algorithm Input : Samples Y , regularization parameter ?, initial iterate X0 Output: Sequence {Xt } that converges to X ? . 1 for t = 0, 1, . . . do 2 Compute Wt = Xt?1 column by column, partition the variables into free and fixed sets. 3 Run graph clustering algorithm based on absolute values on free set. 4 for sweep = 1, . . . , Touter do 5 for s = 1, . . . , k do 6 Compute WSs by CG. 7 for q = 1, . . . , k do 8 Identify boundary nodes Bsq := B(Ss , Sq ) ? Sq (only need if s 6= q) 9 Compute WBsq for boundary nodes (only need if s 6= q). 10 Compute UBsq , and Pij for all (i, j) the current block. 11 Conduct coordinate updates. 12 Find the step size ? by the method proposed in Section 3.2. Parallelization. While our method can run well on a single machine with a single core, here we point out components of our algorithm that can be ?embarrassingly? parallelized on any single machine with multiple cores (with shared memory). We first note that we can obtain a good starting point for our algorithm by applying the divide-and-conquer framework proposed in [8]: this divides the problem into k subproblems, which can then be independently solved in parallel. Consider the steps of our Algorithm 1 in B IG QUIC. In step 2, instead of computing columns of W one by one, we can compute t rows of W at a time, and parallelize these t jobs. A similar trick can be used in step 6 and 9. In step 3, we use the multi-core version of METIS (ParMETIS) for graph clustering. 5 In step 8 and 10, the computations are naturally independent. In step 15, we compute each term in (7) independently and abort if any of the processes report non-positive definiteness. The only sequential part is the coordinate update in step 11, but note, (see Section 3.1), that we have reduced the complexity of this step from O(p) in QUIC to O(p/k). 4 Convergence Analysis In this section, we present two main theoretical results. First, we show that our algorithm converges to the global optimum even with inaccurate Hessian computation. Second, we show that by a careful control of the error in the Hessian computation, B IG QUIC can still achieve a quadratic rate of convergence in terms of Newton iterations. Our analysis differs from that in QUIC [9], where the computations are all assumed to be accurate. [11] also provides a convergence analysis for general proximal Newton methods, but our algorithm with modifications such as fixed/free set selection does not exactly fall into their framework; moreover our analysis shows a quadratic convergence rate, while they only show a super-linear convergence rate. In the B IG QUIC algorithm, we compute wi in two places. The first place is the gradient computation in the second term of (4), where ?g(X) = S ? W . The second place is in the third term of (4), where ?2 g(X) = W ? W . At the first glance they are equivalent and can be computed simultaneously, but it turns out that by carefully analysing the difference between two types of wi , we can achieve much faster convergence, as discussed below. The key observation is that we only require the gradient Wij for all (i, j) ? Sf ree to conduct coordinate descent updates. Since the free set is very sparse and can fit in memory, those Wij only need to be computed once and stored in memory. On the other hand, the computation of wiT Dwj corresponds to the Hessian computation, and we need two columns for each coordinate update, which has to be computed repeatedly. It is easy to produce an example where the algorithm converges to a wrong point when the gradient computation is not accurate, as shown in Figure 5(b) (in Appendix 6.5). Luckily, based on the above analysis the gradient only needs to be computed once per Newton iteration, so we can compute it with high precision. On the other hand, wi for the Hessian has to be computed repeatedly, so we do ?t = W ? t ?W ? t to be not want to spend too much time to compute each of them accurately. We define H the approximated Hessian matrix, and derive the following theorem to show that even if Hessian is inaccurate, B IG QUIC still converges to the global optimum. Notice that our proof covers B IG QUIC algorithm with fixed/free set selection, and the only assumption is that subproblem (3) is solved exactly for each Newton iteration; it is the future work to consider the case where subproblems are solved approximately. ? t  ?I for some constant Theorem 1. For solving (1), if ?g(X) is computed exactly and ??I  H ??, ? > 0 at every Newton iteration, then B IG QUIC converges to the global optimum. The proof is in Appendix 6.1. Theorem 1 suggests that we do not need very accurate Hessian computation for convergence. To have super-linear convergence rate, we require the Hessian computation to be more and more accurate as Xt approaches X ? . We first introduce the following notion of minimum norm subgradient to measure the optimality of X:  ?ij g(X) + sign(Xij )?ij if Xij 6= 0, S gradij f (X) = sign(?ij g(X)) max(|?ij g(X)| ? ?ij , 0) if Xij = 0. The following theorem then shows that if we compute Hessian more and more accurately, B IG QUIC will have a super-linear or even quadratic convergence rate. Theorem 2. When applying B IG QUIC to solve (1), assume ?g(Xt ) is exactly computed and ?2 g(Xt ) is approximated by Ht , and the following condition holds: ? @(i, j) such that Xij = 0 and |?ij g(X ? )| = ?. ? ? 1+p Then kXt+1 ? X k = O(kXt ? X k (8) ) as k ? ? for 0 < p ? 1 if and only if ? t ? ?2 g(Xt )k = O(k gradS (Xt )kp ) as k ? ?. kH (9) The proof is in Appendix 6.2. The assumption in (8) can be shown to be satisfied with very high probability (and was also satisfied in our experiments). Theorem 2 suggests that we can achieve super-linear, or even quadratic convergence rate by a careful control of the approximated Hessian ? t . In the B IG QUIC algorithm, we can further control kH ? t ??2 g(Xt )k by the residual of conjugate H 6 (a) Comparison on chain graph. (b) Comparison on random graph. (c) Comparison on fmri data. Figure 1: The comparison of scalability on three types of graph structures. In all the experiments, B IG QUIC can solve larger problems than QUIC even with a single core, and using 32 cores B IG QUIC can solve million dimensional data in one day. ? i ? ei for gradient solvers to achieve desired convergence rate. Suppose the residual is bi = X w each i = 1, . . . , p, and Bt = [b1 b2 . . . bp ] is a collection of the residuals at the t-th iteration. The following theorem shows that we can control the convergence rate by controlling the norm of Bt . Theorem 3. In the B IG QUIC algorithm, if the residual matrix kBt k = O(k gradS (Xt )kp ) for some 0 < p ? 1 as t ? ?, then kXt+1 ? X ? k = O(kXt ? X ? k1+p ) as t ? ?. The proof is in Appendix 6.3. Since gradS (Xt ) can be easily computed without additional cost, and residuals B can be naturally controlled when running conjugate gradient, we can easily control the asymptotic convergence rate in practice. 5 Experimental Results In this section, we show that our proposed method B IG QUIC can scale to high-dimensional datasets on both synthetic data and real data. All the experiments are run on a single computing node with 4 Intel Xeon E5-4650 2.7GHz CPUs, each with 8 cores and 32G memory. Scalability of B IG QUIC on high-dimensional datasets. In the first set of experiments, we show B IG QUIC can scale to extremely high dimensional datasets. We conduct experiments on the following synthetic and real datasets: ?1 (1) Chain graphs: the ground truth precision matrix is set to be ??1 i,i?1 = ?0.5 and ?i,i = 1.25. (2) Graphs with random pattern: we use the procedure mentioned in Example 1 in [12] to generate random pattern. When generating the graph, we assume there are 500 clusters, and 90% of the edges are within clusters. We fix the average degree to be 10. (3) FMRI data: The original dataset has dimensionality p = 228, 483 and n = 518. For scalability experiments, we subsample various number of random variables from the whole dataset. We use ? = 0.5 for chain and random Graph so that number of recovered edges is close to the ground truth, and set number of samples n = 100. We use ? = 0.6 for the fMRI dataset, which recovers a graph with average degree 20. We set the stopping condition to be gradS (Xt ) < 0.01kXt k1 . In all of our experiments, number of nonzeros during the optimization phase do not exceed 5kX ? k0 in intermediate steps, therefore we can always store the sparse representation of Xt in memory. For B IG QUIC, we set blocks k to be the smallest number such that p/k columns of W can fit into 32G memory. For both QUIC and B IG QUIC, we apply the divide and conquer method proposed in [8] with 10-clusters to get a better initial point. The results are shown in Figure 1. We can see that B IG QUIC can solve one million dimensional chain graphs and random graphs in one day, and handle the full fMRI dataset in about 5 hours. More interestingly, even for dataset with size less than 30000, where p2 size matrices can fit in memory, B IG QUIC is faster than QUIC by exploiting the sparsity. Figure 2 shows an example on a sampled fMRI dataset with p = 20000, and we can see B IG QUIC outperforms QUIC even when using a single core. Also, B IG QUIC is much faster than other solvers, including Glasso [7] and ALM [17]. Figure 3 shows the speedup under a multicore shared memory machine. B IG QUIC can achieve about 14 times speedup using 16 cores, and 20 times speedup when using 32 cores. FMRI dataset. An extensive resting state fMRI dataset from a single individual was analyzed in order to test B IG QUIC on real-world data. The data (collected as part of the MyConnectome project: http://www.myconnectome.org) comprised 36 resting fMRI sessions collected across different days using whole-brain multiband EPI acquisition, each lasting 10 minutes (TR=1.16 secs, multiband factor=4, TE = 30 ms, voxel size = 2.4 mm isotropic, 68 slices, 518 time points). The 7 Figure 2: Comparison on fMRI data with p = Figure 3: The speedup of B IG QUIC when using 20000 (the maximum dimension that state-of-theart softwares can handle). multiple cores. data were preprocessed using FSL 5.0.2, including motion correction, scrubbing of motion frames, registration of EPI images to a common high-resolution structural image using boundary-based registration, and affine transformation to MNI space. The full brain mask included 228,483 voxels. After motion scrubbing, the dataset included a total 18,435 time points across all sessions. B IG QUIC was applied to the full dataset: for the first time, we can learn a GMRF over the entire set of voxels, instead of over a smaller set of curated regions or supervoxels. Exploratory analyses over a range of ? values suggested that ? = 0.5 offered a reasonable level of sparsity. The resulting graph was analyzed to determine whether it identified neuroscientifically plausible networks. Degree was computed for each vertex; high-degree regions were primarily found in gray matter regions, suggesting that the method successfully identified plausible functional connections (see left panel of Figure 4). The structure of the graph was further examined in order to determine whether the method identified plausible network modules. Modularity-based clustering [1] was applied to the graph, resulting in 60 modules that exceeded the threshold size of 100 vertices. A number of neurobiologically plausible resting-state networks were identified, including ?default mode? and sensorimotor networks (right panel of Figure 4). In addition, the method identified a number of structured coherent noise sources (i.e. MRI artifacts) in the dataset. For both neurally plausible and artifactual modules, the modules detected by B IG QUIC are similar to those identified using independent components analysis on the same dataset, without the need for the extensive dimensionality reduction (without statistical guarantees) inherent in such techniques. Figure 4: (Best viewed in color) Results from B IG QUIC analyses of resting-state fMRI data. Left panel: Map of degree distribution across voxels, thresholded at degree=20. Regions showing high degree were generally found in the gray matter (as expected for truly connected functional regions), with very few high-degree voxels found in the white matter. Right panel: Left-hemisphere surface renderings of two network modules obtained through graph clustering. Top panel shows a sensorimotor network, bottom panel shows medial prefrontal, posterior cingulate, and lateral temporoparietal regions characteristic of the ?default mode? generally observed during the resting state. Both of these are commonly observed in analyses of resting state fMRI data. Acknowledgments This research was supported by NSF grant CCF-1320746 and NSF grant CCF-1117055. C.-J.H. also acknowledges the support of IBM PhD fellowship. P.R. acknowledges the support of ARO via W911NF-12-1-0390 and NSF via IIS-1149803, DMS-1264033. R.P. acknowledges the support of ONR via N000140710116 and the James S. McDonnell Foundation. 8 References [1] V. D. Blondel, J.-L. Guillaume, R. Lambiotte, and E. Lefebvre. Fast unfolding of community hierarchies in large networks. J. Stat Mech, 2008. [2] T. Cai, W. Liu, and X. Luo. A constrained `1 minimization approach to sparse precision matrix estimation. Journal of American Statistical Association, 106:594?607, 2011. [3] A. d?Aspremont, O. Banerjee, and L. E. Ghaoui. First-order methods for sparse covariance selection. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and its Applications, 30(1):56?66, 2008. [4] R. S. Dembo, S. C. Eisenstat, and T. Steihaug. Inexact Newton methods. SIAM J. Numerical Anal., 19(2):400?408, 1982. [5] I. S. Dhillon, Y. Guan, and B. Kulis. Weighted graph cuts without eigenvectors: A multilevel approach. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence (TPAMI), 29:11:1944?1957, 2007. [6] J. Duchi, S. Gould, and D. Koller. Projected subgradient methods for learning sparse Gaussians. UAI, 2008. [7] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Sparse inverse covariance estimation with the graphical lasso. Biostatistics, 9(3):432?441, July 2008. [8] C.-J. Hsieh, I. S. Dhillon, P. Ravikumar, and A. Banerjee. A divide-and-conquer method for sparse inverse covariance estimation. In NIPS, 2012. [9] C.-J. Hsieh, M. A. Sustik, I. S. Dhillon, and P. Ravikumar. Sparse inverse covariance estimation using quadratic approximation. 2013. [10] G. Karypis and V. Kumar. A fast and high quality multilevel scheme for partitioning irregular graphs. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 20(1):359?392, 1999. [11] J. D. Lee, Y. Sun, and M. A. Saunders. Proximal newton-type methods for minimizing composite functions. In NIPS, 2012. [12] L. Li and K.-C. Toh. An inexact interior point method for `1 -reguarlized sparse covariance selection. Mathematical Programming Computation, 2:291?315, 2010. [13] R. Mazumder and T. Hastie. Exact covariance thresholding into connected components for large-scale graphical lasso. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:723?736, 2012. [14] N. Meinshausen and P. B?uhlmann. High dimensional graphs and variable selection with the lasso. Annals of Statistics, 34:1436?1462, 2006. [15] P. Olsen, F. Oztoprak, J. Nocedal, and S. Rennie. Newton-like methods for sparse inverse covariance estimation. Technical report, Optimization Center, Northwestern University, 2012. [16] B. Rolfs, B. Rajaratnam, D. Guillot, A. Maleki, and I. Wong. Iterative thresholding algorithm for sparse inverse covariance estimation. In NIPS, 2012. [17] K. Scheinberg, S. Ma, and D. Goldfarb. Sparse inverse covariance selection via alternating linearization methods. NIPS, 2010. [18] K. Scheinberg and I. Rish. Learning sparse Gaussian Markov networks using a greedy coordinate ascent approach. In J. Balczar, F. Bonchi, A. Gionis, and M. Sebag, editors, Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, volume 6323 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 196?212. Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2010. [19] D. M. Witten, J. H. Friedman, and N. Simon. New insights and faster computations for the graphical lasso. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20(4):892?900, 2011. 9
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Speeding up Permutation Testing in Neuroimaging ? Chris Hinrichs? Vamsi K. Ithapu? Qinyuan Sun? Sterling C. Johnson?? Vikas Singh? ? William S. Middleton Memorial VA Hospital ? University of Wisconsin?Madison {hinrichs,vamsi}@cs.wisc.edu {qsun28}@wisc.edu {scj}@medicine.wisc.edu {vsingh}@biostat.wisc.edu http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/?vamsi/pt_fast Abstract Multiple hypothesis testing is a significant problem in nearly all neuroimaging studies. In order to correct for this phenomena, we require a reliable estimate of the Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER). The well known Bonferroni correction method, while simple to implement, is quite conservative, and can substantially under-power a study because it ignores dependencies between test statistics. Permutation testing, on the other hand, is an exact, non-parametric method of estimating the FWER for a given ?-threshold, but for acceptably low thresholds the computational burden can be prohibitive. In this paper, we show that permutation testing in fact amounts to populating the columns of a very large matrix P. By analyzing the spectrum of this matrix, under certain conditions, we see that P has a low-rank plus a low-variance residual decomposition which makes it suitable for highly sub?sampled ? on the order of 0.5% ? matrix completion methods. Based on this observation, we propose a novel permutation testing methodology which offers a large speedup, without sacrificing the fidelity of the estimated FWER. Our evaluations on four different neuroimaging datasets show that a computational speedup factor of roughly 50? can be achieved while recovering the FWER distribution up to very high accuracy. Further, we show that the estimated ?-threshold is also recovered faithfully, and is stable. 1 Introduction Suppose we have completed a placebo-controlled clinical trial of a promising new drug for a neurodegenerative disorder such as Alzheimer?s disease (AD) on a small sized cohort. The study is designed such that in addition to assessing improvements in standard cognitive outcomes (e.g., MMSE), the purported treatment effects will also be assessed using Neuroimaging data. The rationale here is that, even if the drug does induce variations in cognitive symptoms, the brain changes are observable much earlier in the imaging data. On the imaging front, this analysis checks for statistically significant differences between brain images of subjects assigned to the two trial arms: treatment and placebo. Alternatively, consider a second scenario where we have completed a neuroimaging research study of a particular controlled factor, such as genotype, and the interest is to evaluate group-wise differences in the brain images: to identify which regions are affected as a function of class membership. In either cases, the standard image processing workflow yields for each subject a 3-D image (or voxel-wise ?map?). Depending on the image modality acquired, these maps are of cerebral gray matter density, longitudinal deformation (local growth or contraction) or metabolism. It is assumed that these maps have been ?co-registered? across different subjects so that each voxel corresponds to approximately the same anatomical location. [1, 2]. ? Hinrichs and Ithapu are joint first authors and contributed equally to this work. 1 In order to localize the effect under investigation (i.e., treatment or genotype), we then have to calculate a very large number (say, v) of univariate voxel-wise statistics ? typically up to several million voxels. For example, consider group-contrast t-statistics (here we will mainly consider tstatistics, however other test statistics are also applicable, such as the F statistic used in ANOVA testing, Pearson?s correlation as used in functional imaging studies, or the ?2 test of dependence between variates, so long as certain conditions described in Section 2.3 are satisfied). In some voxels, it may turn out that a group-level effect has been indicated, but it is not clear right away what its true significance level should be, if any. As one might expect, given the number of hypotheses tests v, multiple testing issues in this setting are quite severe, making it difficult to assess the true FamilyWise Type I Error Rate (FWER) [3]. If we were to address this issue via Bonferroni correction [4], the enormous number of separate tests implies that certain weaker signals will almost certainly never be detected, even if they are real. This directly affects studies of neurodegenerative disorders in which atrophy proceeds at a very slow rate and the therapeutic effects of a drug is likely to be mild to moderate anyway. This is a critical bottleneck which makes localizing real, albeit slight, shortterm treatment effects problematic. Already, this restriction will prevent us from using a smaller sized study (fewer subjects), increasing the cost of pharmaceutical research. In the worst case, an otherwise real treatment effect of a drug may not survive correction, and the trial may be deemed a failure. Bonferroni versus true FWER threshold. Observe that theoretically, there is a case in which the Bonferroni corrected threshold is close to the true FWER threshold: when point-wise statistics are i.i.d. If so, then the extremely low Bonferroni corrected ?-threshold crossings effectively become mutually exclusive, which makes the Union Bound (on which Bonferroni correction is based) nearly tight. However, when variables are highly dependent ? and indeed even without smoothing there are many sources of strong non-Gaussian dependencies between voxels, the true FWER threshold can be much more relaxed, and it is precisely this phenomenon which drives the search for alternatives to Bonferroni correction. Thus, many methods have been developed to more accurately and efficiently estimate or approximate the FWER [5, 6, 7, 8], which is a subject of much interest in statistics [9], machine learning [10], bioinformatics [11], and neuroimaging [12]. Permutation testing. A commonly used method of directly and non-parametrically estimating the FWER is Permutation testing [12, 13], which is a method of sampling from the Global (i.e., FamilyWise) Null distribution. Permutation testing ensures that any relevant dependencies present in the data carry through to the test statistics, giving an unbiased estimator of the FWER. If we want to choose a threshold sufficient to exclude all spurious results with probability 1 ? ?, we can construct a histogram of sample maxima taken from permutation samples, and choose a threshold giving the 1 ? ?/2 quantile. Unfortunately, reliable FWER estimates derived via permutation testing come at excessive (and often infeasible) computational cost ? often tens of thousands or even millions of permutation samples are required, each of which requires a complete pass over the entire data set. This step alone can run from a few days up to many weeks and even longer [14, 15]. Observe that the very same dependencies between voxels, that forced the usage of permutation testing, indicate that the overwhelming majority of work in computing so many highly correlated Null statistics is redundant. Note that regardless of their description, strong dependencies of almost any kind will tend to concentrate most of their co-variation into a low-rank subspace, leaving a high-rank, low-variance residual [5]. In fact, for Genome wide Association studies (GWAS), many strategies calculate the ?effective number? (Meff ) of independent tests corresponding to the rank of this subspace [16, 5]. This paper is based on the observation that such a low-rank structure must also appear in permutation test samples. Using ideas from online low-rank matrix completion [17] we can sample a few of the Null statistics and reconstruct the remainder as long as we properly account for the residual. This allows us to sub-sample at extremely low rates, generally < 1%. The contribution of our work is to significantly speed up permutation testing in neuroimaging, delivering running time improvements of up to 50?. In other words, our algorithm does the same job as permutation testing, but takes anywhere from a few minutes up to a few hours, rather than days or weeks. Further, based on recent work in random matrix theory, we provide an analysis which sheds additional light on the use of matrix completion methods in this context. To ensure that our conclusions are not an artifact of a specific dataset, we present strong empirical evidence via evaluations on four separate neuroimaging datasets of Alzheimer?s disease (AD) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) patients as well as cognitively healthy age-matched controls (CN), showing that the proposed method can recover highly faithful Global Null distributions, while offering substantial speedups. 2 2 The Proposed Algorithm We first cover some basic concepts underlying permutation testing and low rank matrix completion in more detail, before presenting our algorithm and the associated analysis. 2.1 Permutation testing Randomly sampled permutation testing [18] is a methodology for drawing samples under the Global (Family-Wise) Null hypothesis. Recall that although point-wise test statistics have well characterized univariate Null distributions, the sample maximum usually has no analytic form due to the strong correlations across voxels. Permutation is particularly desirable in this setting because it is free of any distribution assumption whatsoever [12]. The basic idea of permutation testing is very simple, yet extremely powerful. Suppose we have a set of labeled high dimensional data points, and a univariate test statistic which measures some interaction between labeled groups for every dimension (or feature). If we randomly permute the labels and recalculate each test statistic, then by construction we get a sample from the Global Null distribution. The maximum over all of these statistics for every permutation sample is then used to construct a histogram, which therefore is a non-parametric estimate of the distribution of the sample maximum of Null statistics. For a test statistic derived from the real labels, the FWER corrected p-value is then equal to the fraction of permutation samples which were more extreme. Note that all of the permutation samples can be assembled into a matrix P ? Rv?T where v is the number of comparisons (voxels for images), and T is the number of permutation samples. There is a drawback to this approach, however. Observe that it is in the nature of random sampling methods that we get many samples from near the mode(s) of the distribution of interest, but fewer from the tails. Hence, to characterize the threshold for a small portion of the tail of this distribution, we must draw a very large number of samples just so that the estimate converges. Thus, if we want an ? = 0.01 threshold from the Null sample maximum distribution, we require many thousands of permutation samples ? each requires randomizing the labels and recalculating all test statistics, a very computationally expensive procedure when v is large. To be certain, we would like to ensure an especially low FWER by first setting ? very low, and then getting a very precise estimate of the corresponding threshold. The smallest possible p-value we can derive this way is 1/T , so for very low p-values, T must be very large. 2.2 Low-rank Matrix completion Low-rank matrix completion [19] seeks to reconstruct missing entries from a matrix, given only a small fraction of its entries. The problem is ill-posed unless we assume this matrix has a low-rank column space. If so, then a much smaller number of observations, on the order of r log(v), where r is the column space?s rank, and v is its ambient dimension [19] is sufficient to recover both an orthogonal basis for the row space as well as the expansion coefficients for each column, giving the recovery. By placing an `1 -norm penalty on the eigenvalues of the recovered matrix via the nuclear norm [20, 21] we can ensure that the solution is as low rank as possible. Alternatively, we can specify a rank r ahead of time, and estimate an orthogonal basis of that rank by following a gradient along the Grassmannian manifold [22, 17]. Denoting the set of randomly subsampled entries as ?, the matrix completion problem is given as, ? ? k2F min kP? ? P ? P ? = UW; U is orthogonal s.t. P (1) where U ? Rv?r is the low-rank basis of P, ? gives the measured entries, and W is the set of ? in U. Two recent methods operate in an online setting, expansion coefficients which reconstructs P i.e., where rows of P arrive one at a time, and both U and W are updated accordingly [22, 17]. 2.3 Low rank plus a long tail Real-world data often have a dominant low-rank component. While the data may not be exactly characterized by a low-rank basis, the residual will not significantly alter the eigen-spectrum of the sample covariance in such cases. Having strong correlations is nearly synonymous with having a 3 skewed eigen-spectrum, because the flatter the eigen-spectrum becomes, the sparser the resulting covariance matrix tends to be (the ?uncertainty principle? between low-rank and sparse matrices [23]). This low-rank structure carries through for purely linear statistics (such as sample means). However, non-linearities in the test statistic calculation, e.g., normalizing by pooled variances, will contribute a long tail of eigenvalues, and so we require that this long tail will either decay rapidly, or that it does not overlap with the dominant eigenvalues. For t-statistics, the pooled variances are unlikely to change very much from one permutation sample to another (barring outliers) ? hence we expect that the spectrum of P will resemble that of the data covariance, with the addition of a long, exponentially decaying tail. More generally, if the non-linearity does not de-correlate the test statistics too much, it will preserve the low-rank structure. If this long tail is indeed dominated by the low-rank structure, then its contribution to P can be modeled as a low variance Gaussian i.i.d. residual. A Central Limit argument appeals to the number of independent eigenfunctions that contribute to this residual, and, the orthogonality of eigenfunctions implies that as more of them meaningfully contribute to each entry in the residual, the more independent those entries become. In other words, if this long tail begins at a low magnitude and decays slowly, then we can treat it as a Gaussian i.i.d. residual; and if it decays rapidly, then the residual will perhaps be less Gaussian, but also more negligible. Thus, our development in the next section makes no direct assumption about these eigenvalues themselves, but rather that the residual corresponds to a low-variance i.i.d. Gaussian random matrix ? its contribution to the covariance of test statistics will be Wishart distributed, and from that we can characterize its eigenvalues. 2.4 Our Method It still remains to model the residual numerically. By sub-sampling we can reconstruct the low-rank portion of P via matrix completion, but in order to obtain the desired sample maximum distribution we must also recover the residual. Exact recovery of the residual is essentially impossible; fortunately, for our purposes we need only need its effect on the distribution of the maximum per permutation test. So, we estimate its variance, (its mean is zero by assumption,) and then randomly sample from that distribution to recover the unobserved remainder of the matrix. A large component in the running time of online subspace tracking algorithms is spent in updating the basis set U; yet, once a good estimate for U has been found this becomes superfluous. We therefore divide the entire process into two steps: training, and recovery. During the training phase we conduct a small number of fully sampled permutation tests (100 permutations in our experiments). From these permutation tests, we estimate U using sub-sampled matrix completion methods [22, 17], making multiple passes over the training set (with fixed sub-sampling rate), until convergence. In our evaluations, three passes sufficed. Then, we obtain a distribution of the residual S over the entire training set. Next is the recovery phase, in which we sub-sample a small fraction of the entries of each successive column t, solve for the reconstruction coefficients W(?, t) in the basis U by least-squares, and then add random residuals using parameters estimated during training. After that, we proceed exactly as in a normal permutation testing, to recover the statistics. Bias-Variance tradeoff. By using a very sparse subsampling method, there is a bias-variance dilemma in estimating S. That is, if we use the entire matrix P to estimate U, W and S, we will obtain reliable estimates of S. But, there is an overfitting problem: the least-squares objective used in fitting W(?, t) to such a small sample of entries is likely to grossly underestimate the variance of S compared to where we use the entire matrix; (the sub-sampling problem is not nearly as over-constrained as for the whole matrix). This sampling artifact reduces the apparent variance of S, and induces a bias in the distribution of the sample maximum, because extreme values are found less frequently. This sampling artifact has the effect of ?shifting? the distribution of the sample maximum towards 0. We correct for this bias by estimating the amount of the shift during the training phase, and then shifting the recovered sample max distribution by this estimated amount. 3 Analysis We now discuss two results which show that as long as the variance of the residual is below a certain level, we can recover the distribution of the sample maximum. Recall from (1) that for low-rank matrix completion methods to be applied we must assume that the permutation matrix P can be 4 decomposed into a low-rank component plus a high-rank residual matrix S: P = UW + S, (2) where U is a v ? r orthogonal matrix that spans the r  min(v, t) -dimensional column subspace of P, and W is the corresponding coefficient matrix. We can then treat the residual S as a random matrix whose entries are i.i.d. zero-mean Gaussian with variance ? 2 . We arrive at our first result by analyzing how the low-rank portion of P?s singular spectrum interlaces with the contribution coming from the residual by treating P as a low-rank perturbation of a random matrix. If this low-rank perturbation is sufficient to dominate the eigenvalues of the random matrix, then P can be recovered with high fidelity at a low sampling rate [22, 17]. Consequently, we can estimate the distribution of the maximum as well, as shown by our second result. The following development relies on the observation that the eigenvalues of PPT are the squared singular values of P. Thus, rather than analyzing the singular value spectrum of P directly, we can analyze the eigenvalues of PPT using a recent result from [24]. This is important because in order to ensure recovery of P, we require that its singular value spectrum will approximately retain the shape of UW?s. More precisely, we require that for some 0 < ? < 1, |??i ? ?i | < ??i ??i < ??r i = 1, . . . , r; i = r + 1, . . . , v (3) where ?i and ??i are the singular values of UW and P respectively. (Recall that in this analysis P is the perturbation of UW.) Thm. 3.1 relates the rate at which eigenvalues are perturbed, ?, to the parameterization of S in terms of ? 2 . The theorem?s principal assumption also relates ? 2 inversely with the number of columns of P, which is just the number of trials t. Note however that the process may be split up between several matrices Pi , and the results can then be combined. For purposes of applying this result in practice we may then choose a number of columns t which gives the best bound. Theorem 3.1 also assumes that the number of trials t is greater than the number of voxels v, which is a difficult regime to explore empirically. Thus, our numerical evaluations cover the case where t < v, while Thm 3.1 covers the case where t is larger. From the definition of P in (2), we have, PPT = UWWT UT + SST + UWST + SWT UT . T (4) T T We first analyze the change in eigenvalue structure of SS when perturbed by UWW U , (which has r non-zero eigenvalues). The influence of the cross-terms (UWST and SWT UT ) is addressed later. Thus, we have the following theorem. Theorem 3.1. Denote that r non-zero eigenvalues of Q = UWWT UT ? Rv?v by ?1 ? ?2 ? , . . . , ?r > 0; and let S be a v ? t random matrix such that Si,j ? N (0, ? 2 ), with unknown ? 2 . As v, t ? ? such that vt  1, the eigenvalues ??i of the perturbed matrix Q + SST will satisfy |??i ? ?i | < ??i ??i < ??r i = 1, . . . , r; for some 0 < ? < 1, whenever ? 2 < i = r + 1, . . . , v (?) ??r t Proof. (Sketch) The proof proceeds by constructing the asymptotic eigenvalues ??i (for i = 1, . . . , v), and later bounding them to satisfy (?). The construction of ??i is based on Theorem 2.1 from [24]. Firstly, an asymptotic spectral measure ? of 1t SST is calculated, followed by its Cauchy transform 2 ? G? (z). Using G? (z) and its functional inverse G?1 ? (?), we get ?i in terms of ?i , ? , v and t. Finally, the constraints in (?) are applied to ??i to upper bound ? 2 . The supplement includes the proof. Note that the missing cross-terms would not change the result of Theorem 3.1 drastically, because UW has r non-zero singular values and hence UWST is a low-rank projection of a low-variance random matrix, and this will clearly be dominated by either of the other terms. Having justified the model in (2), the following thorem shows that the empirical distribution of the maximum Null statistic approximates the true distribution. 5 Theorem 3.2. Let mt = maxi Pi,t be the maximum observed test statistic at permutation trial ? i,t be the maximum reconstructed test statistic. Further, let the t, and similarly let m ? t = maxi P ? i,t | ? . Then, for any real number k > 0, maximum reconstruction error be , such that |Pi,t ? P we have, h i 1 Pr mt ? m ? t ? (b ? ?b) > k < 2 k ? where b is the bias term described in Section 2, and b is its estimate from the training phase. The result is an application of Chebyshev?s bound. The complete proof is given in the supplement. 4 Experimental evaluations Our experimental evaluations include four separate neuroimaging datasets of Alzheimer?s Disease (AD) patients, cognitively healthy age-matched controls (CN), and in some cases Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) patients. The first of these is the Alzheimer?s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, a nation-wide multi-site study. ADNI is a landmark study sponsored by the NIH, major pharmaceuticals and others to determine the extent to which multimodal brain imaging can help predict onset, and monitor progression of AD. The others were collected as part of other studies of AD and MCI. We refer to these datasets as Dataset A?D. Their demographic characteristics are as follows: Dataset A: 40 subjects, AD vs. CN, median age : 76; Dataset B: 50 subjects, AD vs. CN, median age : 68; Dataset C: 55 subjects, CN vs. MCI, median age : 65.16; Dataset D: 70 subjects, CN vs. MCI, median age : 66.24. Our evaluations focus on three main questions: (i) Can we recover an acceptable approximation of the maximum statistic Null distribution from an approximation of the permutation test matrix? (ii) What degree of computational speedup can we expect at various subsampling rates, and how does this affect the trade-off with approximation error? (iii) How sensitive is the estimated ?-level threshold with respect to the recovered Null distribution? In all our experiments, the rank estimate for subspace tracking (to construct the low?rank basis U) was taken as the number of subjects. 4.1 Can we recover the Maximum Null? Our experiments suggest that our model can recover the maximum Null. We use Kullback?Leibler (KL) divergence and Bhattacharya Distance (BD) to compare the estimated maximum Null from our model to the true one. We also construct a ?Naive?Null?, where the subsampled statistics are pooled and the Null distribution is constructed with no further processing (i.e., completion). Using this as a baseline, Fig. 1 shows the KL and BD values obtained from three datasets, at 20 different subsampling rates (ranging from 0.1% to 10%). Note that our model involves a training module where the approximate ?bias? of residuals is estimated. This estimation is prone to noise (for example, number of training frames). Hence Fig. 1 also shows the error bars pertaining to 5 realizations on the 20 sampling rates. The first observation from Fig. 1 is that both KL and BD measures of the recovered Null to the true distribution are < e?5 for sampling rates more than 0.4%. This (a) Dataset A (b) Dataset B (c) Dataset C Figure 1: KL (blue) and BD (red) measures between the true max Null distribution (given by the full matrix P) and that recovered by our method (thick lines), along with the baseline naive subsampling method (dotted lines). Results for Datasets A, B, C are shown here. Plot for Dataset D is in the extended version of the paper. 6 (a) Speedup (at 0.4%) is 45.1 (b) Speedup (at 0.4%) is 45.6 (c) Speedup (at 0.4%) is 48.5 Figure 3: Computation time (in minutes) of our model compared to that of computing the entire matrix P. Results are for the same three datasets as in Fig. 1. Please find the plot for Dataset D in the extended version of the paper. The horizontal line (magenta) shows the time taken for computing the full matrix P. The other three curves include : subsampling (blue), GRASTA recovery (red) and total time taken by our model (black). Plots correspond to the low sampling regime (< 1%) and note the jump in y?axis (black boxes). For reference, the speedup factor at 0.4% sampling rate is reported at the bottom of each plot. suggests that our model recovers both the shape (low BD) and position (low KL) of the null to high accuracy at extremely low sub-sampling. We also see that above a certain minimum subsampling rate (? 0.3%), the KL and BD do not change drastically as the rate is increased. This is expected from the theory on matrix completion where after observing a minimum number of data samples, adding in new samples does not substantially increase information content. Further, the error bars (although very small in magnitude) of both KL and BD show that the recovery is noisy. We believe this is due to the approximate estimate of bias from training module. 4.2 What is the computational speedup? Our experiments suggest that the speedup is substantial. Figs. 3 and 2 compare the time taken to perform the complete permutation testing to that of our model. The three plots in Fig. 3 correspond to the datasets used in Fig. 1, in that order. Each plot contains 4 curves and represent the time taken by our model, the corresponding sampling and GRASTA [17] recovery (plus training) times and the total time to construct the entire matrix P (horizontal line). And Fig. 2 shows the scatter plot of computational speedup vs. KL divergence (over 3 repeated set of experiments on all the datasets and sampling rates). Our model achieved at least 30 times decrease in computation time in the low sampling regime (< 1%). Around 0.5% ? 0.6% sub- Figure 2: Scatter plot of computational speedup vs. sampling (where the KL and BD are already KL. The plot corresponds to the 20 different samplings < e?5 ), the computation speed-up factor aver- on all 4 datasets (for 5 repeated set of experiments) and aged over all datasets was 45?. This shows that the colormap is from 0.1% to 10% sampling rate. The our model achieved good accuracy (low KL and x?axis is in log scale. BD) together with high computational speed up in tandem, especially, for 0.4% ? 0.7% sampling rates. However note from Fig. 2 that there is a trade?off between the speedup factor and approximation error (KL or BD). Overall the highest computational speedup factor achieved at a recovery level of e?5 on KL and BD is around 50x (and this occured around 0.4% ? 0.5% sampling rate, refer to Fig. 2). It was observed that a speedup factor of upto 55? was obtained for Datasets C and D at 0.3% subsampling, where the KL and BD were as low as e?5.5 (refer to Fig. 1 and the extended version of the paper). 4.3 How stable is the estimated ?-threshold (clinical significance)? Our experiments suggest that the threshold is stable. Fig. 4 and Table 1 summarize the clinical significance of our model. Fig. 4 show the error in estimating the true max thresh7 (a) Datasets A, B (b) Datasets C, D Figure 4: Error of estimated t statistic thresholds (red) for the 20 different subsampling rates on the four Datasets. The confidence level is 1 ? ? = 0.95. The y-axis is in log?scale. For reference, the thresholds given by baseline model (blue) are included. Note that each plot corresponds to two datasets. old, at 1 ? ? = 0.95 level of confidence. The x?axis corresponds to the 20 different sampling rates used and y?axis shows the absolute difference of thresholds in log scale. Observe that for sampling rates higher than 3%, the mean and maximum differences was 0.04 Data Sampling 1 ? ? level and 0.18. Note that the binning resolution of name rate 0.95 0.99 0.995 0.999 max.statistic used for constructing the Null was 0.3% 0.16 0.11 0.14 0.07 A 0.5% 0.13 0.08 0.10 0.03 0.01. These results show that not only the 0.3% 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.13 global shape of the maximum Null distribution B 0.5% 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.04 is estimated to high accuracy (see Section 4.1) 0.3% 0.04 0.13 0.21 0.20 but also the shape and area in the tail. To supC 0.5% 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.05 port this observation, we show the absolute dif0.3% 0.08 0.10 0.27 0.31 ferences of the estimated thresholds on all the D 0.5% 0.12 0.13 0.25 0.22 datasets at 4 different ? levels in Table 1. The errors for 1 ? ? = 0.95, 0.99 are at most 0.16. Table 1: Errors of estimated t statistic thresholds on The increase in error for 1 ? ? > 0.995 is a all datasets at two different subsampling rates. sampling artifact and is expected. Note that in a few cases, the error at 0.5% is slightly higher than that at 0.3% suggesting that the recovery is noisy (see Sec. 4.1 and the errorbars of Fig. 1). Overall the estimated ?-thresholds are both faithful and stable. 5 Conclusions and future directions In this paper, we have proposed a novel method of efficiently approximating the permutation testing matrix by first estimating the major singular vectors, then filling in the missing values via matrix completion, and finally estimating the distribution of residual values. Experiments on four different neuroimaging datasets show that we can recover the distribution of the maximum Null statistic to a high degree of accuracy, while maintaining a computational speedup factor of roughly 50?. While our focus has been on neuroimaging problems, we note that multiple testing and False Discovery Rate (FDR) correction are important issues in genomic and RNA analyses, and our contribution may offer enhanced leverage to existing methodologies which use permutation testing in these settings[6]. Acknowledgments: We thank Robert Nowak, Grace Wahba, Moo K. Chung and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments, and Jia Xu for helping with a preliminary implementation of the model. This work was supported in part by NIH R01 AG040396; NSF CAREER grant 1252725; NSF RI 1116584; Wisconsin Partnership Fund; UW ADRC P50 AG033514; UW ICTR 1UL1RR025011 and a Veterans Administration Merit Review Grant I01CX000165. Hinrichs is supported by a CIBM post-doctoral fellowship via NLM grant 2T15LM007359. The contents do not represent views of the Dept. of Veterans Affairs or the United States Government. 8 References [1] J. Ashburner and K. J. Friston. Voxel-based morphometry?the methods. NeuroImage, 11(6):805?821, 2000. [2] J. Ashburner and K. J. Friston. Why voxel-based morphometry should be used. NeuroImage, 14(6):1238? 1243, 2001. [3] P. H. Westfall and S. S. Young. Resampling-based multiple testing: examples and methods for p-value adjustment, volume 279. Wiley-Interscience, 1993. [4] J. M. Bland and D. G. Altman. 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Guaranteed minimum-rank solutions of linear matrix equations via nuclear norm minimization. Arxiv Preprint, 2007. arxiv:0706.4138. [22] L. Balzano, R. Nowak, and B. Recht. Online identification and tracking of subspaces from highly incomplete information. Arxiv Preprint, 2007. arxiv:1006.4046. [23] V. Chandrasekaran, S. Sanghavi, P. A. Parrilo, and Willsky A. S. Rank-sparsity incoherence for matrix decomposition. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 21(2):572?596, 2011. [24] F. Benaych-Georges and R. R. Nadakuditi. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of finite, low rank perturbations of large random matrices. Advances in Mathematics, 227(1):494?521, 2011. 9
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Robust Multimodal Graph Matching: Sparse Coding Meets Graph Matching Marcelo Fiori Universidad de la Rep?ublica, Uruguay [email protected] Joshua Vogelstein Duke University Durham, NC 27708 [email protected] Pablo Sprechmann Duke University Durham, NC 27708 [email protected] Pablo Mus?e Universidad de la Rep?ublica, Uruguay [email protected] Guillermo Sapiro Duke University Durham, NC 27708 [email protected] Abstract Graph matching is a challenging problem with very important applications in a wide range of fields, from image and video analysis to biological and biomedical problems. We propose a robust graph matching algorithm inspired in sparsityrelated techniques. We cast the problem, resembling group or collaborative sparsity formulations, as a non-smooth convex optimization problem that can be efficiently solved using augmented Lagrangian techniques. The method can deal with weighted or unweighted graphs, as well as multimodal data, where different graphs represent different types of data. The proposed approach is also naturally integrated with collaborative graph inference techniques, solving general network inference problems where the observed variables, possibly coming from different modalities, are not in correspondence. The algorithm is tested and compared with state-of-the-art graph matching techniques in both synthetic and real graphs. We also present results on multimodal graphs and applications to collaborative inference of brain connectivity from alignment-free functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. The code is publicly available. 1 Introduction Problems related to graph isomorphisms have been an important and enjoyable challenge for the scientific community for a long time. The graph isomorphism problem itself consists in determining whether two given graphs are isomorphic or not, that is, if there exists an edge preserving bijection between the vertex sets of the graphs. This problem is also very interesting from the computational complexity point of view, since its complexity level is still unsolved: it is one of the few problems in NP not yet classified as P nor NP-complete (Conte et al., 2004). The graph isomorphism problem is contained in the (harder) graph matching problem, which consists in finding the exact isomorphism between two graphs. Graph matching is therefore a very challenging problem which has several applications, e.g., in the pattern recognition and computer vision areas. In this paper we address the problem of (potentially multimodal) graph matching when the graphs are not exactly isomorphic. This is by far the most common scenario in real applications, since the graphs to be compared are the result of a measuring or description process, which is naturally affected by noise. Given two graphs GA and GB with p vertices, which we will characterize in terms of their p ? p adjacency matrices A and B, the graph matching problem consists in finding a correspondence between the nodes of GA and GB minimizing some matching error. In terms of the adjacency matrices, this corresponds to finding a matrix P in the set of permutation matrices P, such that it minimizes some distance between PBPT . A common choice is the Frobenius norm PA and 2 T 2 2 ||A ? PBP ||F , where ||M||F = ij Mij . The graph matching problem can be then stated as min ||A ? PBPT ||2F = min ||AP ? PB||2F . P?P P?P 1 (1) The combinatorial nature of the permutation search makes this problem NP in general, although polynomial algorithms have been developed for a few special types of graphs, like trees or planar graphs for example (Conte et al., 2004). There are several and diverse techniques addressing the graph matching problem, including spectral methods (Umeyama, 1988) and problem relaxations (Zaslavskiy et al., 2009; Vogelstein et al., 2012; Almohamad & Duffuaa, 1993). A good review of the most common approaches can be found in Conte et al. (2004). In this paper we focus on the relaxation techniques for solving an approximate version of the problem. Maybe the simplest one is to relax the feasible set (the permutation matrices) to its convex hull, the set of doubly stochastic matrices D, which consist of the matrices with nonnegative entries such that each row and column sum up one: D = {M ? Rp?p : Mij ? 0, M1 = 1, MT 1 = 1}, 1 being the p-dimensional vector of ones. The relaxed version of the problem is ? = arg min ||AP ? PB||2 , P F P?D which is a convex problem, though the result is a doubly stochastic matrix instead of a per? mutation. The final node correspondence is obtained as the closest permutation matrix to P: ? 2 3 ? P = arg minP?P ||P ? P||F , which is a linear assignment problem that can be solved in O(p ) by the Hungarian algorithm (Kuhn, 1955). However, this last step lacks any guarantee about the graph matching problem itself. This approach will be referred to as QCP for quadratic convex problem. One of the newest approximate methods is the PATH algorithm by Zaslavskiy et al. (2009), which combines this convex relaxation with a concave relaxation. Another new technique is the FAQ method by Vogelstein et al. (2012), which solves a relaxed version of the Quadratic Assignment Problem. We compare the method here proposed to all these techniques in the experimental section. The main contributions of this work are two-fold. Firstly, we propose a new and versatile formulation for the graph matching problem which is more robust to noise and can naturally manage multimodal data. The technique, which we call GLAG for Group lasso graph matching, is inspired by the recent works on sparse modeling, and in particular group and collaborative sparse coding. We present several experimental evaluations to back up these claims. Secondly, this proposed formulation fits very naturally into the alignment-free collaborative network inference problem, where we collaborative exploit non-aligned (possibly multimodal) data to infer the underlying common network, making this application never addressed before to the best of our knowledge. We assess this with experiments using real fMRI data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we present the proposed graph matching formulation, and we show how to solve the optimization problem in Section 3. The joint collaborative network and permutation learning application is described in Section 4. Experimental results are presented in Section 5, and we conclude in Section 6. 2 Graph matching formulation We consider the problem of matching two graphs that are not necessarily perfectly isomorphic. We will assume the following model: Assume that we have a noise free graph characterized by an adjacency matrix T. Then we want to match two graphs with adjacency matrices A = T + OA and B = PT o TPo + OB , where OA and OB have a sparse number of non-zero elements of arbitrary magnitude. This realistic model is often used in experimental settings, e.g., (Zaslavskiy et al., 2009). In this context, the QCP formulation tends to find a doubly stochastic matrix P which minimizes the ?average error? between AP and PB. However, these spurious mismatching edges can be thought of as outliers, so we would want a metric promoting that AP and PB share the same active set (non zero entries representing edges), with the exception of some sparse entries. This can be formulated in terms of the group Lasso penalization (Yuan & Lin, 2006). In short, the group Lasso takes a set of groups of coefficients and promotes that only some of these groups are active, while the others remain zero. Moreover, the usual behavior is that when a group is active, all the coefficients in the group are non-zero. In this particular graph matching application, we form p2 groups, one per matrix  entry (i, j), each one consisting of the 2-dimensional vector (AP)ij , (PB)ij . The proposed cost function is then the sum of the l2 norms of the groups: X  (AP)ij , (PB)ij . f (P ) = (2) 2 i,j 2 Ideally we would like to solve the graph matching problem by finding the minimum of f over the set of permutation matrices P. Of course this formulation is still computationally intractable, so we solve the relaxed version, changing P by its convex hull D, resulting in the convex problem ? = arg min f (P). P (3) P?D ? As with the Frobenius formulation, the final step simply finds the closest permutation matrix to P. Let us analyze the case when A and B are the adjacency matrices of two isomorphic undirected unweighted graphs with e edges and no self-loops. Since the graphs are isomorphic, there exist a permutation matrix Po such that A = Po BPT o. Lemma ? 1 Under the conditions stated above, the minimum value of the optimization problem (3) is 2 2e and it is reached by Po , although the solution is not unique in general. Moreover, any solution P of problem (3) satisfies AP = PB. Proof: Let (a)k denote allp the p2 entries of AP, and (b)k all the entries of PB. Then f (P) can be P re-written as f (P) = k a2k + b2k . ? ? Observing that a2 + b2 ? 22 (a + b), we have ? Xq X 2 (ak + bk ) . (4) f (P ) = a2k + b2k ? 2 k k Now, since P is doubly stochastic, the sum of all the entries of APPis equal to Pthe sum of all the entries?of A, which is two times the number of edges. Therefore k ak = k bk = 2e and f (P) ? 2 2e. The equality in (4) holds if and only if ak = bk for all k, which means that AP = PB. In particular, this is true for the permutation Po , which completes the proof of all the statements.  This Lemma shows that the fact that the weights in A and B are not compared in magnitude does not affect the matching performance when the two graphs are isomorphic and have equal weights. On the other hand, this property places a fundamental role when moving away from this setting. Indeed, since the group lasso tends to set complete groups to zero, and the actual value of the non-zero coefficients is less important, this allows to group very dissimilar coefficients together, if that would result in fewer active groups. This is even more evident when using the l? norm instead of the l2 norm of the groups, and the optimization remains very similar to the one presented below. Moreover, the formulation remains valid when both graphs come from different modalities, a fundamental property when for example addressing alignment-free collaborative graph inference as presented in Section 4 (the elegance with which this graph matching formulation fits into such problem will be further stressed there). In contrast, the Frobenious-based approaches mentioned in the introduction are very susceptible to differences in edge magnitudes and not appropriate for multimodal matching1 . 3 Optimization The proposed minimization problem (3) is convex but non-differentiable. Here we use an efficient variant of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) (Bertsekas & Tsitsiklis, 1989). The idea is to write the optimization problem as an equivalent artificially constrained problem, using two new variables ?, ? ? Rp?p : X  min || ?ij , ? ij ||2 s.t. ? = AP, ? = PB. (5) P?D i,j The ADMOM method generates a sequence which converges to the minimum of the augmented Lagrangian of the problem: X  c c L(P, ?, ?, U, V) = || ?ij , ? ij ||2 + ||? ? AP + U||2 + ||? ? PB + V||2 , 2 2 i,j 1 If both graphs are binary and we limit to permutation matrices (for which there are no algorithms known to find the solution in polynomial time), then the minimizers of (2) and (1) are the same (Vince Lyzinski, personal communication). 3 where U and V are related to the Lagrange multipliers and c is a fixed constant. The decoupling produced by the new artificial variables allows to update their values one at a time, minimizing the augmented Lagrangian L. We first update the pair (?, ?) while keeping fixed (P, U, V); then we minimize for P; and finally update U and V, as described next in Algorithm 1. Input : Adjacency matrices A, B, c > 0. Output: Permutation matrix P? Initialize U = 0, V = 0, P = p1 1T 1 while stopping criterion is not satisfied  P do (?t+1 , ? t+1 ) = arg min?,? i,j || ?ij , ? ij ||2 + 2c ||? ? APt + Ut ||2F + 2c ||? ? Pt B + Vt ||2F Pt+1 = arg minP?D 21 ||?t+1 ? AP + Ut ||2F + 12 ||? t+1 ? PB + Vt ||2F Ut+1 = Ut + ?t+1 ? APt+1 Vt+1 = Vt + ? t+1 ? Pt+1 B end P? = argminQ?P ||Q ? P||2F Algorithm 1: Robust graph matching algorithm. See text for implementation details of each step. The first subproblem is decomposable into p2 scalar problems (one for each matrix entry),  c c min || ?ij , ? ij ||2 + (?ij ? (APt )ij + Utij )2 + (? ij ? (Pt B)ij + Vtij )2 . ?ij ,? ij 2 2 From the optimality conditions on the subgradient of this subproblem, it can be seen that this can be solved in closed hform by means of the well know vector soft-thresholding operator (Yuan & Lin, i ? 2006): Sv (b, ?) = 1 ? ||b||2 b . + The second subproblem is a minimization of a convex differentiable function over a convex set, so general solvers can be chosen for this task. For instance, a projected gradient descent method can be used. However, this would require to compute several projections onto D per iteration, which is one of the computationally most expensive steps. Nevertheless, we can choose to solve a linearized version of the problem while keeping the convergence guarantees of the algorithm (Lin et al., 2011). In this case, the linear approximation of the first term is: 1 1 1 t+1 ||? ? AP + Ut ||2F ? ||?t+1 ? APk + Ut ||2F + hgk , P ? Pk i + ||P ? Pk ||2F , 2 2 2? where gk = ?AT (?t+1 + Ut ? APk ) is the gradient of the linearized term, h?, ?i is the usual inner product of matrices, and ? is any constant such that ? < ?(A1T A) , with ?(?) being the spectral norm. The second term can be linearized analogously, so the minimization of the second step becomes   1 1 min ||P? Pk + ? AT (?t+1 + Ut ? APk ) ||2F + ||P? Pk + ? (? t+1 + Vt ? Pk B)BT ||2F P?D 2 2 | | {z } {z } fixed matrix D fixed matrix C which is simply the projection of the matrix 12 (C + D) over D. Summarizing, each iteration consists of p2 vector thresholdings when solving for (?, ?), one projection over D when solving for P, and two matrix multiplications for the update of U and V. The code is publicly available at www.fing.edu.uy/?mfiori. 4 Application to joint graph inference of not pre-aligned data Estimating the inverse covariance matrix is a very active field of research. In particular the inference of the support of this matrix, since the non-zero entries have information about the conditional dependence between variables. In numerous applications, this matrix is known to be sparse, and in this regard the graphical Lasso has proven to be a good estimator for the inverse covariance matrix (Yuan & Lin, 2007; Fiori et al., 2012) (also for non-Gaussian data (Loh & Wainwright, 2012)). Assume that we have a p-dimensional multivariate normal distributed variable X ? N (0, ?); let X ? Rk?p be a data matrix containing k independent observations of X, and S its empirical covariance matrix. The graphical Lasso estimator for ??1 is the matrix ? which solves the optimization problem X min tr(S?) ? log det ? + ? |?ij | , (6) ?0 i,j 4 which corresponds to the maximum likelihood estimator for ??1 with an l1 regularization. Collaborative network inference has gained a lot of attention in the last years (Chiquet et al., 2011), specially with fMRI data, e.g., (Varoquaux et al., 2010). This problem consist of estimating two (or ?1 more) matrices ??1 A and ?B from data matrices XA and XB as above, with the additional prior information that the inverse covariance matrices share the same support. The joint estimation of ?A and ?B is performed by solving X  B ?A min tr(SA ?A ) ? log det ?A + tr(SB ?B ) ? log det ?B + ? ij , ?ij ||2 , (7) ?A 0,?B 0 i,j where the first four terms correspond to the maximum likelihood estimators for ?A , ?B , and the last term is the group Lasso penalty which promotes that ?A and ?B have the same active set. This formulation relies on the limiting underlying assumption that the variables in both datasets (the columns of XA and XB ) are in correspondence, i.e., the graphs determined by the adjacency matrices ?A and ?B are aligned. However, this is in general not the case in practice. Motivated by the formulation presented in Section 2, we propose to overcome this limitation by incorporating a permutation matrix into the optimization problem, and jointly learn it on the estimation process. The proposed optimization problem is then given by X  (?A P)ij , (P?B )ij ||2 . min tr(SA ?A ) ? log det ?A + tr(SB ?B ) ? log det ?B + ? ?A ,?B 0 P?P i,j (8) Even after the relaxation of the constraint P ? P to P ? D, the joint minimization of (8) over (?A , ?B ) and P is a non-convex problem. However it is convex when minimized only over (?A , ?B ) or P leaving the other fixed. Problem (8) can be then minimized using a block-coordinate descent type of approach, iteratively minimizing over (?A , ?B ) and P. The first subproblem (solving (8) with P fixed) is a very simple variant of (7), which can be solved very efficiently by means of iterative thresholding algorithms (Fiori et al., 2013). In the second subproblem, since (?A , ?B ) are fixed, the only term to minimize is the last one, which corresponds to the graph matching formulation presented in Section 2. 5 Experimental results We now present the performance of our algorithm and compare it with the most recent techniques in several scenarios including synthetic and real graphs, multimodal data, and fMRI experiments. In the cases where there is a ?ground truth,? the performance is measured in terms of the matching error, defined as ||Ao ? PBo PT ||2F , where P is the obtained permutation matrix and (Ao , Bo ) are the original adjacency matrices. 5.1 Graph matching: Synthetic graphs We focus here in the traditional graph matching problem of undirected weighted graphs, both with and without noise. More precisely, let Ao be the adjacency matrix of a random weighted graph and Bo a permuted version of it, generated with a random permutation matrix Po , i.e., Bo = PTo Ao Po . We then add a certain number N of random edges to Ao with the same weight distribution as the original weights, and another N random edges to Bo , and from these noisy versions we try to recover the original matching (or any matching between Ao and Bo , since it may not be unique). We show the results using three different techniques for the generation of the graphs: the Erd?osR?enyi model (Erd?os & R?enyi, 1959), the model by Barab?asi & Albert (1999) for scale-free graphs, and graphs with a given degree distribution generated with the BTER algorithm (Seshadhri et al., 2012). These models are representative of a wide range of real-world graphs (Newman, 2010). In the case of the BTER algorithm, the degree distribution was generated according to a geometric law, that is: Prob(degree = t) = (1 ? e?? )e?t . We compared the performance of our algorithm with the technique by Zaslavskiy et al. (2009) (referred to as PATH), the FAQ method described in Vogelstein et al. (2012), and the QCP approach. 5 Figure 1 shows the matching error as a function of the noise level for graphs with p = 100 nodes (top row), and for p = 150 nodes (bottom row). The number of edges varies between 200 and 400 for graphs with 100 nodes, and between 300 and 600 for graphs with 150 nodes, depending on the model. The performance is averaged over 100 runs. This figure shows that our method is more stable, and consistently outperforms the other methods (considered state-of-the-art), specially for noise levels in the low range (for large noise levels, is not clear what a ?true? matching is, and in addition the sparsity hypothesis is no longer valid). 16 14 12 10 18 14 10 6 2 Matching error Matching error Matching error 18 14 10 6 2 0 5 10 15 Noise 20 25 0 (a) Erd?os-R?enyi graphs 5 10 15 Noise 20 25 0 (b) Scale-free graphs 5 10 15 Noise 20 25 30 25 30 (c) BTER graphs 14 7 5 3 10 Matching error Matching error 9 Matching error 8 6 4 2 8 6 4 2 1 0 5 10 15 Noise 20 25 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5 10 15 Noise 20 25 0 5 10 15 Noise 20 (d) Erd?os-R?enyi graphs (e) Scale-free graphs (f) BTER graphs Figure 1: Matching error for synthetic graphs with p = 100 nodes (top row) and p = 150 nodes (bottom row). In solid black our proposed GLAG algorithm, in long-dashed blue the PATH algorithm, in short-dashed red the FAQ method, and in dotted black the QCP. 5.2 Graph matching: Real graphs We now present similar experiments to those in the previous section but with real graphs. We use the C. elegans connectome. Caenorhabditis elegans is an extensively studied roundworm, whose somatic nervous system consists of 279 neurons that make synapses with other neurons. The two types of connections (chemical and electrical) between these 279 neurons have been mapped (Varshney et al., 2011), and their corresponding adjacency matrices, Ac and Ae , are publicly available. We match both the chemical and the electrical connection graphs against noisy artificially permuted versions of them. The permuted graphs are constructed following the same procedure used in Section 5.1 for synthetic graphs. The weights of the added noise follow the same distribution as the original weights. The results are shown in Figure 2. These results suggest that from the prior art, the PATH algorithm is more suitable for the electrical connection network, while the FAQ algorithm works better for the chemical one. Our method outperforms both of them for both types of connections. 5.3 Multimodal graph matching One of the advantages of the proposed approach is its capability to deal with multimodal data. As discussed in Section 2, the group Lasso type of penalty promotes the supports of AP and PB to be identical, almost independently of the actual values of the entries. This allows to match weighted graphs where the weights may follow completely different probability distributions. This is commonly the case when dealing with multimodal data: when a network is measured using significantly different modalities, one expects the underlying connections to be the same but no relation can be assumed between the actual weights of these connections. This is even the case for example for fMRI data when measured with different instruments. In what follows, we evaluate the performance of the proposed method in two examples of multimodal graph matching. 6 0 7 Matching error Matching error 8 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Noise 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Noise (a) Electrical connection graph (b) Chemical connection graph Figure 2: Matching error for the C. elegans connectome, averaged over 50 runs. In solid black our proposed GLAG algorithm, in long-dashed blue the PATH algorithm, and in short-dashed red the FAQ method. Note that in the chemical connection graph, the matching error of our algorithm is zero until noise levels of ? 50. We first generate an auxiliary binary random graph Ab and a permuted version Bb = PTo Ab Po . Then, we assign weights to the graphs according to distributions pA and pB (that will be specified for each experiment), thus obtaining the weighted graphs A and B. We then add noise consisting of spurious weighted edges following the same distribution as the original graphs (i.e., pA for A and pB for B). Finally, we run all four graph matching methods to recover the permutation. The matching error is measured in the unweighted graphs as ||Ab ? PBb PT ||F . Note that while this metric might not be appropriate for the optimization stage when considering multimodal data, it is appropriate for the actual error evaluation, measuring mismatches. Comparing with the original permutation matrix may not be very informative since there is no guarantee that the matrix is unique, even for the original noise-free data. Figures 3(a) and 3(b) show the comparison when the weights in both graphs are Gaussian distributed, but with different means and variances. Figures 3(c) and 3(d) show the performances when the weights of A are Gaussian distributed, and the ones of B follow a uniform distribution. See captions for details. These results confirm the intuition described above, showing that our method is more suitable for multimodal graphs, specially in the low range of noise. 35 30 30 Matching error Matching error 25 25 20 15 10 20 15 10 5 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Noise 0 30 25 25 20 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Noise (b) Scale-free graphs Matching error Matching error (a) Erd?os-R?enyi graphs 5 15 10 5 0 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Noise 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Noise (c) Erd?os-R?enyi graphs (d) Scale-free graphs Figure 3: Matching error for multimodal graphs with p = 100 nodes. In (a) and (b), weights in A are N (1, 0.4) and weights in B are N (4, 1). In (c) and (d), weights in A are N (1, 0.4) and weights in B are uniform in [1, 2]. In solid black our proposed GLAG algorithm, in long-dashed blue the PATH algorithm, in short-dashed red the FAQ method, and in dotted black the QCP. 7 5.4 Collaborative inference In this last experiment, we illustrate the application of the permuted collaborative graph inference presented in Section 4 with real resting-state fMRI data, publicly available (Nooner, 2012). We consider here test-retest studies, that is, the same subject undergoing resting-state fMRI in two different sessions separated by a break. Each session consists of almost 10 minutes of data, acquired with a sampling period of 0.645s, producing about 900 samples per study. The CC200 atlas (Craddock et al., 2012) was used to extract the time-series for the ? 200 regions of interest (ROIs), resulting in two data matrices XA , XB ? R900?200 , corresponding to test and retest respectively. To illustrate the potential of the proposed framework, we show that using only part of the data in XA and part of the data in a permuted version of XB , we are able to infer a connectivity matrix almost as accurately as using the whole data. Working with permuted data is very important in this application in order to handle possible miss-alignments to the atlas. Since there is no ground truth for the connectivity, and as mentioned before the collaborative setting (7) has already been proven successful, we take as ground truth the result of the collaborative inference using the empirical covariance matrices of XA and XB , denoted by SA and SB . The result of B this collaborative inference procedure are the two inverse covariance matrices ?A GT and ?GT . In short, the gold standard built for this experiment are found by solving (obtained with the entire data) X  B ?A min tr(SA ?A ) ? log det ?A + tr(SB ?B ) ? log det ?B + ? ij , ?ij ||2 . ?A 0,?B 0 i,j the first 550 samples of XB , which correspond be the first 550 samples of X , Now, B to a little less than 6 minutes of study. We compute the empirical covariance matrices SA H and SH B ? = PT SB Po . With these two of these data matrices, and we artificially permute the second one: S A let XA H and XB H H B o H ? matrices SA H and SH we run the algorithm described in Section 4, which alternately computes the B inverse covariance matrices ?A H and ?H and the matching P between them. We compare this approach against the computation of the inverse covariance matrix using only one A B B of the studies. Let ?A s and ?s be the results of the graphical Lasso (6) using S and S : X K ?K |?ij | , for K = {A, B}. s = argmin tr(S ?) ? log det ? + ? ?0 i,j A A This experiment is repeated for 5 subjects in the database. The errors ||?A GT ? ?s ||F and ||?GT ? A B ?H ||F are shown in Figure 4. The errors for ? are very similar. Using less than 6 minutes of each study, with the variables not pre-aligned, the permuted collaborative inference procedure proposed in Section 4 outperforms the classical graphical Lasso using the full 10 minutes of study. Error (?10?3 ) 6 Figure 4: Inverse covariance matrix estimation for fMRI data. In blue, error using one complete 10 minutes A study: ||?A GT ? ?s ||F . In red, erA A ror ||?GT ? ?H ||F with collaborative inference using about 6 minutes of each study, but solving for the unknown node permutations at the same time. 5 4 3 2 1 0 6 1 2 3 Subject 4 5 Conclusions We have presented a new formulation for the graph matching problem, and proposed an optimization algorithm for minimizing the corresponding cost function. The reported results show its suitability for the graph matching problem of weighted graphs, outperforming previous state-of-the-art methods, both in synthetic and real graphs. Since in the problem formulation the weights of the graphs are not compared explicitly, the method can deal with multimodal data, outperforming the other compared methods. In addition, the proposed formulation naturally fits into the pre-alignment-free collaborative network inference framework, where the permutation is estimated together with the underlying common network, with promising preliminary results in applications with real data. Acknowledgements: Work partially supported by ONR, NGA, NSF, ARO, AFOSR, and ANII. 8 References Almohamad, H. and Duffuaa, S. A linear programming approach for the weighted graph matching problem. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, 15(5):522?525, 1993. Barab?asi, A. and Albert, R. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science, 286(5439):509?512, 1999. Bertsekas, D. and Tsitsiklis, J. Parallel and Distributed Computation: Numerical Methods. Prentice Hall, 1989. Chiquet, J., Grandvalet, Y., and Ambroise, C. Inferring multiple graphical structures. Statistics and Computing, 21(4):537?553, 2011. Conte, D., Foggia, P., Sansone, C., and Vento, M. Thirty years of graph matching in pattern recognition. International Journal of Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence, 18(03):265?298, 2004. Craddock, R.C., James, G.A., Holtzheimer, P.E., Hu, X.P., and Mayberg, H.S. A whole brain fMRI atlas generated via spatially constrained spectral clustering. Human Brain Mapping, 33(8):1914? 1928, 2012. Erd?os, P. and R?enyi, A. On random graphs, I. Publicationes Mathematicae, 6:290?297, 1959. Fiori, Marcelo, Mus?e, Pablo, and Sapiro, Guillermo. Topology constraints in graphical models. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pp. 800?808, 2012. Fiori, Marcelo, Mus?e, Pablo, Hariri, Ahamd, and Sapiro, Guillermo. Multimodal graphical models via group lasso. Signal Processing with Adaptive Sparse Structured Representations, 2013. Kuhn, H. W. The Hungarian method for the assignment problem. Naval Research Logistic Quarterly, 2:83?97, 1955. Lin, Z., Liu, R., and Su, Z. Linearized alternating direction method with adaptive penalty for lowrank representation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, pp. 612?620. 2011. Loh, P. and Wainwright, M. Structure estimation for discrete graphical models: Generalized covariance matrices and their inverses. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pp. 2096?2104. 2012. Newman, M. Networks: An Introduction. Oxford University Press, Inc., New York, NY, USA, 2010. Nooner, K. et al. The NKI-Rockland sample: A model for accelerating the pace of discovery science in psychiatry. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 6(152), 2012. Seshadhri, C., Kolda, T.G., and Pinar, A. Community structure and scale-free collections of Erd?osR?enyi graphs. Physical Review E, 85(5):056109, 2012. Umeyama, S. An eigendecomposition approach to weighted graph matching problems. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, 10(5):695?703, 1988. Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Poline, J.B., and T., Bertrand. Brain covariance selection: better individual functional connectivity models using population prior. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pp. 2334?2342, 2010. Varshney, L., Chen, B., Paniagua, E., Hall, D., and Chklovskii, D. Structural properties of the caenorhabditis elegans neuronal network. PLoS Computational Biology, 7(2):e1001066, 2011. Vogelstein, J.T., Conroy, J.M., Podrazik, L.J., Kratzer, S.G., Harley, E.T., Fishkind, D.E., Vogelstein, R.J., and Priebe, C.E. Fast approximate quadratic programming for large (brain) graph matching. arXiv:1112.5507, 2012. Yuan, M. and Lin, Y. Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 68(1):49?67, 2006. Yuan, M. and Lin, Y. Model selection and estimation in the Gaussian graphical model. Biometrika, 94(1):19?35, February 2007. Zaslavskiy, M., Bach, F., and Vert, J.P. A path following algorithm for the graph matching problem. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, 31(12):2227?2242, 2009. 9
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Deep Fisher Networks for Large-Scale Image Classification Karen Simonyan Andrea Vedaldi Andrew Zisserman Visual Geometry Group, University of Oxford {karen,vedaldi,az}@robots.ox.ac.uk Abstract As massively parallel computations have become broadly available with modern GPUs, deep architectures trained on very large datasets have risen in popularity. Discriminatively trained convolutional neural networks, in particular, were recently shown to yield state-of-the-art performance in challenging image classification benchmarks such as ImageNet. However, elements of these architectures are similar to standard hand-crafted representations used in computer vision. In this paper, we explore the extent of this analogy, proposing a version of the stateof-the-art Fisher vector image encoding that can be stacked in multiple layers. This architecture significantly improves on standard Fisher vectors, and obtains competitive results with deep convolutional networks at a smaller computational learning cost. Our hybrid architecture allows us to assess how the performance of a conventional hand-crafted image classification pipeline changes with increased depth. We also show that convolutional networks and Fisher vector encodings are complementary in the sense that their combination further improves the accuracy. 1 Introduction Discriminatively trained deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) [18] have recently achieved impressive state of the art results over a number of areas, including, in particular, the visual recognition of categories in the ImageNet Large-Scale Visual Recognition Challenge [4]. This success is built on many years of tuning and incorporating ideas into CNNs in order to improve their performance. Many of the key ideas in CNN have now been absorbed into features proposed in the computer vision literature ? some have been discovered independently and others have been overtly borrowed. For example: the importance of whitening [11]; max pooling and sparse coding [26, 33]; non-linearity and normalization [20]. Indeed, several standard features and pipelines in computer vision, such as SIFT [19] and a spatial pyramid on Bag of visual Words (BoW) [16] can be seen as corresponding to layers of a standard CNN. However, image classification pipelines used in the computer vision literature are still generally quite shallow: either a global feature vector is computed over an image, and used directly for classification; or, in a few cases, a two layer hierarchy is used, where the outputs of a number of classifiers form the global feature vector for the image (e.g. attributes and classemes [15, 30]). The question we address in this paper is whether it is possible to improve the performance of off-theshelf computer vision features by organising them into a deeper architecture. To this end we make the following contributions: (i) we introduce a Fisher Vector Layer, which is a generalization of the standard FV to a layer architecture suitable for stacking; (ii) we demonstrate that by discriminatively training several such layers and stacking them into a Fisher Vector Network, an accuracy competitive with the deep CNN can be achieved, whilst staying in the realms of conventional SIFT and colour features and FV encodings; and (iii) we show that class posteriors, computed by the deep CNN and FV, are complementary and can be combined to significantly improve the accuracy. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. After a discussion of the related work, we begin with a brief description of the conventional FV encoding [20] (Sect. 2). We then show how this 1 representation can be modified to be used as a layer in a deeper architecture (Sect. 3) and how the latter can be discriminatively learnt to yield a deep Fisher network (Sect. 4). After discussing important details of the implementation (Sect. 5), we evaluate our architecture on the ImageNet image classification benchmark (Sect. 6). Related work. There is a vast literature on large-scale image classification, which we briefly review here. One widely used approach is to extract local features such as SIFT [19] densely from each image, aggregate and encode them as high-dimensional vectors, and feed the latter to a classifier, e.g. an SVM. There exists a large variety of different encodings that can be used for this purpose, including the BoW [9, 29] encoding, sparse coding [33], and the FV encoding [20]. Since FV was shown to outperform other encodings [6] and achieve very good performance on various image recognition benchmarks [21, 28], we use it as the basis of our framework. We note that other recently proposed encodings (e.g. [5]) can be readily employed in the place of FV. Most encodings are designed to disregard the spatial location of features in order to be invariant to image transformations; in practice, however, retaining weak spatial information yields an improved classification performance. This can be incorporated by dividing the image into regions, encoding each of them individually, and stacking the result in a composite higher-dimensional code, known as a spatial pyramid [16]. The alternative, which does not increase the encoding dimensionality, is to augment the local features with their spatial coordinates [24]. Another vast family of image classification techniques is based on Deep Neural Networks (DNN), which are inspired by the layered structure of the visual cortex in mammals [22]. DNNs can be trained greedily, in a layer-by-layer manner, as in Restricted Boltzmann Machines [12] and (sparse) auto-encoders [3, 17], or by learning all layers simultaneously, which is relatively efficient if the layers are convolutional [18]. In particular, the advent of massively-parallel GPUs has recently made it possible to train deep convolutional networks on a large scale with excellent performance [7, 14]. It was also shown that techniques such as training and test data augmentation, as well as averaging the outputs of independently trained DNNs, can significantly improve the accuracy. There have been attempts to bridge these two families, exploring the trade-offs between network depth and width, as well as the complexity of the layers. For instance, dense feature encoding using the bag of visual words was considered as a single layer of a deep network in [1, 8, 32]. 2 Fisher vector encoding for image classification The Fisher vector encoding ? of a set of features {xp } (e.g. densely computed SIFT features) is based on fitting a parametric generative model, e.g. the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), to the features, and then encoding the derivatives of the log-likelihood of the model with respect to its parameters [13]. In the particular case of GMMs with diagonal covariances, used here, this leads to the representation which captures the average first and second order differences between the features and each of the GMM centres [20]:     N N X 1 X xp ? ?k 1 (xp ? ?k )2 (1) (2) ?k = ? ?k (xp ) , ?k = ? ?k (xp ) ? 1 (1) N ?k p=1 ?k ?k2 N 2?k p=1 Here, {?k , ?k , ?k }k are the mixture weights, means, and diagonal covariances of the GMM, which is computed on the training set and used for the description of all images; ?k (xp ) is the soft assignment weighth of the p-th feature xp to the i k-th Gaussian. An FV is obtained by stacking the differences: (1) (2) (1) (2) ? = ?1 , ?1 , . . . , ?K , ?K . The encoding describes how the distribution of features of a particular image differs from the distribution fitted to the features of all training images. To make the features amenable to the FV description based on the diagonal-covariance GMM, they are first decorrelated by PCA. The FV dimensionality is 2Kd, where K is the codebook size (the number of Gaussians in the GMM), and d is the dimensionality of the encoded feature vector. For instance, FV encoding of a SIFT feature (d = 128) using a small GMM codebook (K = 256) is 65.5K-dimensional. This means that high-dimensional feature encodings can be quickly computed using small codebooks. Using the same codebook size, BoW and sparse coding are only K-dimensional and less discriminative, as demonstrated in [6]. From another point of view, given the desired encoding dimensionality, these methods would require 2d-times larger codebooks than needed for FV, which would lead to impractical computation times. 2 One vs. rest linear SVMs classifier layer SSR & L2 norm. 2-nd Fisher layer (global pooling) FV encoder L2 norm. & PCA Spatial stacking FV encoder Dense feature extraction SSR & L2 norm. One vs rest linear SVMs SSR & L2 norm. FV encoder 1-st Fisher layer (with optional global pooling branched out) 0-th layer SIFT, raw patches, ? Dense feature extraction SIFT, raw patches, ? input image Figure 1: Left: Fisher network (Sect. 4) with two Fisher layers. Right: conventional pipeline using a shallow Fisher vector encoding. As shown in Sect. 6, making the conventional pipeline slightly deeper by injecting a single Fisher layer substantially improves the classification accuracy. As can be seen from (1), the (unnormalised) FV encoding is additive with respect to image features, i.e. the encoding of an image is an average of the individual encodings of its features. Following [20], FV performance is further improved by passing it through Signed Square-Rooting (SSR) and L2 normalisation. Finally, the high-dimensional FV is usually coupled with a one-vs-rest linear SVM classifier, and together they form a conventional image classification pipeline [21] (see Fig. 1), which serves as a baseline for our classification framework. 3 Fisher layer The conventional FV representation of an image (Sect. 2), effectively encodes each local feature (e.g. SIFT) into a high-dimensional representation, and then aggregates these encodings into a single vector by global sum-pooling over the whole image (followed by normalisation). This means that the representation describes the image in terms of the local patch features, and can not capture more complex image structures. Deep neural networks are able to model the feature hierarchies by passing an output of one feature computation layer as the input to the next one. We adopt a similar approach here, and devise a feed-forward feature encoding layer (which we term a Fisher layer), which is based on off-the-shelf Fisher vector encoding. The layers can then be stacked into a deep network, which we call a Fisher network. The architecture of the l-th Fisher layer is depicted in Fig. 2. On the input, it receives dl -dimensional features (dl ? 102 ), densely computed over multiple scales on a regular image grid. The features are assumed to be decorrelated using PCA. The layer then performs feed-forward feature transformation in three sub-layers. The first one computes semi-local FV encodings by pooling the input features not from the whole image, but from a dense set of semi-local regions. The resulting FVs form a new set of densely sampled features that are more discriminative than the input ones and less local, as they integrate information from larger image areas. The FV encoder (Sect. 2) uses a layer-specific GMM with Kl components, so the dimensionality of each FV is 2Kl dl , which, considering that FVs are computed densely, might be too large for practical applications. Therefore, we decrease FV dimensionality by projection onto hl -dimensional subspace using a discriminatively trained linear projection Wl ? Rhl ?2Kl dl . In practice, this is carried out using an efficient variant of the FV encoder (Sect. 5). In the second sub-layer, the spatially adjacent features are stacked in a 2 ? 2 window, which produces 4hl -dimensional dense feature representation. Finally, the features are L2 -normalised and PCAprojected to dl+1 -dimensional subspace using the linear projection Ul ? Rdl+1 ?4hl , and passed as the input to the (l + 1)-th layer. Each sub-layer is explained in more detail below. 3 dl Compressed semi-local local Fisher vector encoding mixture of Kl Gaussians hl projection Wl from 2Kldl to hl Spatial stacking (2?2) 4hl L2 norm. & PCA projection Ul from 4hl to dl+1 dl+1 ql 2ql 4hl Figure 2: The architecture of a single Fisher layer. Left: the arrows illustrate the data flow through the layer; the dimensionality of densely computed features is shown next to the arrows. Right: spatial pooling (the blue squares) and stacking (the red square) in sub-layers 1 and 2 respectively. Fisher vector pooling (sub-layer 1). The key idea behind the first sub-layer is to aggregate the FVs of individual features over a family of semi-local spatial neighbourhoods. These neighbourhoods are overlapping square regions of size ql ? ql , sampled every ?l pixels (see Fig. 2); compared to the regions used in global or spatial pyramid pooling [20], these are smaller and sampled much more densely. As a result, instead of a single FV, describing the whole image, the image is represented by a large number of densely computed semi-local FVs, each of which describes a spatially adjacent set of local features, computed by the previous layer. Thus, the new feature representation can capture more complex image statistics with larger spatial support. We note that due to additivity, computing the FV of a spatial neighbourhood corresponds to the sum-pooling over the neighbourhood, a stage widely used in DNNs. The high dimensionality of Fisher vectors, however, brings up the computational complexity issue, as storing and processing thousands of dense FVs per image (each of which is 2Kl dl -dimensional) is prohibitive at large scale. We tackle this problem by employing discriminative dimensionality reduction for high-dimensional FVs, which makes the layer learning procedure supervised. The dimensionality reduction is carried out using a linear projection Wl onto an hl -dimensional subspace. As will be shown in Sect. 5, compressed FVs can be computed very efficiently without the need to compute the full-dimensional FVs first, and then project them down. A similar approach (passing the output of a feature encoder to another encoder) has been previously employed by [1, 8, 32], but in their case they used bag-of-words or sparse coding representations. As noted in [8], such encodings require large codebooks to produce discriminative feature representations. This, in turn, makes these approaches hardly applicable to the datasets of ImageNet scale [4]. As explained in Sect. 2, FV encoders do not require large codebooks, and by employing supervised dimensionality reduction, we can preserve the discriminative ability of FV even after the projection onto a low-dimensional space, similarly to [10]. Spatial stacking (sub-layer 2). After the dimensionality-reduced FV pooling (Sect. 3), an image is represented as a spatially dense set of low-dimensional multi-scale discriminative features. It should be noted that local sum-pooling, while making the representation invariant to small translations, is agnostic to the relative location of aggregated features. To capture the spatial structure within each feature?s neighbourhood, we incorporate the stacking sub-layer, which concatenates the spatially adjacent features in a 2 ? 2 window (Fig. 2). This step is similar to 4 ? 4 stacking employed in SIFT. Normalisation and PCA projection (sub-layer 3). After stacking, the features are L2 -normalised, which improves their invariance properties. This procedure is closely related to Local Contrast Normalisation, widely used in DNNs. Finally, before passing the features to the FV encoder of the next layer, PCA dimensionality reduction is carried out, which serves two purposes: (i) features are decorrelated so that they can be modelled using diagonal-covariance GMMs of the next layer; (ii) dimensionality is reduced from 4hl to dl+1 to keep the image representation compact and the computational complexity limited. Multi-scale computation. In practice, the Fisher layer computation is repeated at multiple scales by changing the pooling window size ql (the PCA projection in sub-layer 3 is the same for all scales). This allows a single layer to capture multi-scale statistics, which is different from typical DNN architectures, which use a single pooling window size per layer. The resulting dense multi-scale features, computed by the layer, form the input of the next layer (similarly to the dense multi-scale SIFT features). In Sect. 6 we show that a multi-scale Fisher layer indeed brings an improvement, compared to a fixed pooling window size. 4 4 Fisher network Our image classification pipeline, which we coin Fisher network (shown in Fig. 1) is constructed by stacking several (at least one) Fisher layers (Sect. 3) on top of dense features, such as SIFT or raw image patches. The penultimate layer, which computes a single-vector image representation, is the special case of the Fisher layer, where sum-pooling is only performed globally over the whole image. We call this layer the global Fisher layer, and it effectively computes a full-dimensional normalised Fisher vector encoding (the dimensionality reduction stage is omitted since the computed FV is directly used for classification). The final layer is an off-the-shelf ensemble of one-vs-rest binary linear SVMs. As can be seen, a Fisher network generalises the standard FV pipeline of [20], as the latter corresponds to the network with a single global Fisher layer. Multi-layer image descriptor. Each subsequent Fisher layer is designed to capture more complex, higher-level image statistics, but the competitive performance of shallow FV-based frameworks [21] suggests that low-level SIFT features are already discriminative enough to distinguish between a number of image classes. To fully exploit the hierarchy of Fisher layers, we branch out a globally pooled, normalised FV from each of the Fisher layers, not just the last one. These image representations are then concatenated to produce a rich, multi-layer image descriptor. A similar approach has previously been applied to convolutional networks in [25]. 4.1 Learning The Fisher network is trained in a supervised manner, since each Fisher layer (apart from the global layer) depends on discriminative dimensionality reduction. The network is trained greedily, layer by layer. Here we discuss how the (non-global) Fisher layer can be efficiently trained in the large-scale scenario, and introduce two options for the projection learning objective. Projection learning proxy. As explained in Sect. 3, we need to learn a discriminative projection W to significantly reduce the dimensionality of the densely-computed semi-local FVs. At the same time, the only annotation available for discriminative learning in our case is the class label of the whole image. We exploit this information by requiring that projected semi-local FVs are good predictors of the image class. Taking into account that (i) it may be unreasonable to require all local feature occurrences to predict the object class (the support of some features may not even cover the object), and (ii) there are too many features to use all of them in learning (? 104 semi-local FVs for each of the ? 106 training images), we optimize the average class prediction of all the features in a layer, rather than the prediction of individual feature occurrences. In particular, we construct a learning proxy by computing the average ? of all unnormalised, unproPS jected semi-local FVs ?s of an image, ? = S1 s=1 ?s , and defining the learning constraints on ? PS using the image label. Considering that W ? = S1 s=1 W ?s , the projection W , learnt for ?, is also applicable to individual semi-local FVs ?s . The advantages of the proxy are that the image-level class annotation can now be utilised, and during projection learning we only need to store a single vector ? per image. In the sequel, we define two options for the projection learning objective, which are then compared in Sect. 6. Bi-convex max-margin projection learning. One approach to discriminative dimensionality reduction learning consists in finding the projection onto a subspace where the image classes are as linearly separable as possible [10, 31]. This corresponds to the bilinear class scoring function: vcT W ?, where W is the linear projection which we seek to optimise and vc is the linear model (e.g. an SVM) of the class c in the projected space. The max-margin optimisation problem for W and the ensemble {vc } takes the following form: X X i c0 6=c(i) max h vc0 ? vc(i) T i ?X ? kvc k22 + kW k2F , W ?i + 1, 0 + 2 c 2 (2) where ci is the ground-truth class of an image i, ? and ? are the regularisation constants. The learning objective is bi-convex in W and vc , and a local optimum can be found by alternation between the convex problems for W and {vc }, both of which can be solved in primal using a stochastic sub-gradient method [27]. We initialise the alternation by setting W to the PCA-whitening matrix W0 . Once the optimisation has converged, the classifiers vc are discarded, and we keep the projection W . 5 Projection onto the space of classifier scores. Another dimensionality reduction technique, which we consider in this work, is to train one-vs-rest SVM classifiers {uc }C c=1 on the full-dimensional FVs ?, and then use the C-dimensional vector of SVM outputs as the compressed representation of ?. This corresponds to setting the c-th row of the projection matrix W to the SVM model uc . This approach is closely related to attribute-based representations and classemes [15, 30], but in our case we do not use any additional data annotated with a different set of (attribute) classes to train the models; instead, the C = 1000 classifiers trained directly on the ILSVRC dataset are used. If a specific target dimensionality is required, PCA dimensionality reduction can be further applied to the classifier scores [10], but in our case we applied PCA after spatial stacking (Sect. 3). The advantage of using SVM models for dimensionality reduction is, mostly, computational. As we will show in Sect. 6, both formulations exhibit a similar level of performance, but training C onevs-rest classifiers is much faster than performing alternation between SVM learning and projection learning in (2). The reason is that one-vs-rest SVM training can be easily parallelised, while projection learning is significantly slower even when using a parallel gradient descent implementation. 5 Implementation details Efficient computation of hard-assignment Fisher vectors. In the original FV encoding formulation (1), each feature is soft-assigned to all K Gaussians of the GMM by computing the assignment ? N k (xp ) weights ?k (xp ) as the responsibilities of GMM component k for feature p: ?k (xp ) = P k?j N , j (xp ) j where N k (xp ) is the likelihood of k-th Gaussian. To facilitate an efficient computation of a large number of dense FVs per image, we introduce and utilise a fast variant of FV (which we term hard-FV), which uses hard assignments of features to Gaussians, computed as  1 if k = arg maxj ?j N j (xp ) ?k (xp ) = (3) 0 otherwise Hard-FVs are inherently sparse; this allows for  the fast computation of projected  FVs Wl ?. Indeed, it PK P (k,1) (1) (k,2) (2) is easy to show that Wl ? = k=1 p??k Wl ?k (p) + Wl ?k (p) , where ?k is the set (k,1) (k,2) of input vectors hard-assigned to the GMM component k, and Wl , Wl are the sub-matrices (1),(2) of Wl which correspond to the 1st and 2nd order differences ?k (p) between the feature xp and the k-th GMM mean (1). This suggests the fast computation procedure: each dl -dimensional input feature xp is first hard-assigned to a Gaussian k based on (3). Then, the corresponding dl -D (1),(2) (k,1) (k,2) differences ?k (p) are computed and projected using small hl ?dl sub-matrices Wl , Wl , which is fast. The algorithm avoids computing high-dimensional FVs, followed by the projection using a large matrix Wl ? Rhl ?2Kl dl , which is prohibitive since the number of dense FVs is high. Implementation. Our SIFT feature extraction follows that of [21]. Images are rescaled so that the number of?pixels is 100K. Dense RootSIFT [2] is computed on 24 ? 24 patches over 5 scales (scale factor 3 2) with a 3 pixel step. We also employ SIFT augmentation with the patch spatial coordinates [24]. During training, high-dimensional FVs, computed by the 2nd Fisher layer, are compressed using product quantisation [23]. The learning framework is implemented in Matlab, speeded up with C++ MEX. The computation is carried out on CPU without the use of GPU. Training the Fisher network on top of SIFT descriptors on 1.2M images of ILSVRC-2010 [4] dataset takes about one day on a 200-core cluster. Image classification time is ? 2s on a single core. 6 Evaluation In this section, we evaluate the proposed Fisher network on the dataset, introduced for the ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC) 2010 [4]. It contains images of 1000 categories, with 1.2M images available for training, 50K for validation, and 150K for testing. Following the standard evaluation protocol for the dataset, we report both top-1 and top-5 accuracy (%) computed on the test set. Sect. 6.1 evaluates variants of the Fisher network on a subset of ILSVRC to identify the best one. Then, Sect. 6.2 evaluates the complete framework. 6.1 Fisher network variants We begin with comparing the performance of the Fisher network under different settings. The comparison is carried out on a subset of ILSVRC, which was obtained by random sampling of 200 6 Table 1: Evaluation of dimensionality reduction, stacking, and normalisation sub-layers on a 200 class subset of ILSVRC-2010. The following configuration of Fisher layers was used: d1 = 128, K1 = 256, q1 = 5, ?1 = 1, h1 = 200 (number of classes), d2 = 200 , K2 = 256. The baseline performance of a shallow FV encoding is 57.03% and 78.9% (top-1 and top-5 accuracy). dim-ty reduction classifier scores classifier scores classifier scores bi-convex stacking L2 norm-n X X X X top-1 59.69 59.42 60.22 59.49 X X top-5 80.29 80.44 80.93 81.11 Table 2: Evaluation of multi-scale pooling and multi-layer image description on the subset of ILSVRC-2010. The following configuration of Fisher layers was used: d1 = 128, K1 = 256, h1 = 200, d2 = 200, K2 = 256. Both Fisher layers used spatial coordinate augmentation. The baseline performance of a shallow FV encoding is 59.51% and 80.50% (top-1 and top-5 accuracy). pooling window size q1 5 {5, 7, 9, 11} {5, 7, 9, 11} pooling stride ?1 1 2 2 multi-layer X top-1 61.56 62.16 63.79 top-5 82.21 82.43 83.73 classes out of 1000. To avoid over-fitting indirectly on the test set, comparisons in this section are carried on the validation set. In our experiments, we used SIFT as the first layer of the network, followed by two Fisher layers (the second one is global, as explained in Sect. 4). Dimensionality reduction, stacking, and normalisation. Here we quantitatively assess the three sub-layers of a Fisher layer (Sect. 3). We compare the two proposed dimensionality reduction learning schemes (bi-convex learning and classifier scores), and also demonstrate the importance of spatial stacking and L2 normalisation. The results are shown in Table 1. As can be seen, both spatial stacking and L2 normalisation improve the performance, and dimensionality reduction via projection onto the space of SVM classifier scores performs on par with the projection learnt using the bi-convex formulation (2). In the following experiments we used the classifier scores for dimensionality reduction, since their training can be parallelised and is significantly faster. Multi-scale pooling and multi-layer image representation. In this experiment, we compare the performance of semi-local FV pooling using single and multiple window sizes (Sect. 3), as well as single- and multi-layer image representations (Sect. 4). From Table 2 it is clear that using multiple pooling window sizes is beneficial compared to a single window size. When using multi-scale pooling, the pooling stride was increased to keep the number of pooled semi-local FVs roughly the same. Also, the multi-layer image descriptor obtained by stacking globally pooled and normalised FVs, computed by the two Fisher layers, outperforms each of these FVs taken separately. We also note that in this experiment, unlike the previous one, both Fisher layers utilized spatial coordinate augmentation of the input features, which leads to a noticeable boost in the shallow baseline performance (from 78.9% to 80.50% top-5 accuracy). Apart from our Fisher network, multi-scale pooling can be readily employed in convolutional networks. 6.2 Evaluation on ILSVRC-2010 Now that we have evaluated various Fisher layer configurations on a subset of ILSVRC, we assess the performance of our framework on the full ILSVRC-2010 dataset. We use off-the-shelf SIFT and colour features [20] in the feature extraction layer, and demonstrate that significant improvements can be achieved by injecting a single Fisher layer into the conventional FV-based pipeline [23]. The following configuration of Fisher layers was used: d1 = 80, K1 = 512, q1 = {5, 7, 9, 11}, ?1 = 2, h1 = 1000, d2 = 256, K2 = 256. On both Fisher layers, we used spatial coordinate augmentation of the input features. The first Fisher layer uses a large number of GMM components Kl , since it was found to be beneficial for shallow FV encodings [23], used here as a baseline. The one-vs-rest SVM scores were Platt-calibrated on the validation set (we did not use calibration for semi-local FV dimensionality reduction). The results are shown in Table 3. First, we note that the globally pooled Fisher vector, branched out of the first Fisher layer (which effectively corresponds to the conventional FV encoding [23]), results in better accuracy than reported in [23], which validates our implementation. Using the 2nd Fisher layer on top of the 1st one leads to a significant performance improvement. Finally, stacking the FVs, produced by the 1st and 2nd Fisher layers, pushes the accuracy even further. 7 Table 3: Performance on ILSVRC-2010 using dense SIFT and colour features. We also specify the dimensionality of SIFT-based image representations. pipeline setting 1st Fisher layer 2nd Fisher layer multi-layer (1st and 2nd Fisher layers) S?anchez et al. [23] SIFT only dimension top-1 82K 46.52 131K 48.54 213K 52.57 524K N/A top-5 68.45 71.35 73.68 67.9 SIFT & colour top-1 top-5 55.35 76.35 56.20 77.68 59.47 79.20 54.3 74.3 The state of the art on the ILSVRC-2010 dataset was obtained using an 8-layer convolutional network [14], i.e. twice as deep as the Fisher network considered here. Using training and test set augmentation based on jittering (not employed here), they achieved the top-1 / top-5 accuracy of 62.5% / 83.0%. Without test set augmentation (i.e. using only the original images for class scoring), their result is 61% / 81.7%. In our case, we did not augment neither the training, nor the test set, and achieved 59.5% / 79.2%. For reference, our baseline shallow FV accuracy is 55.4% / 76.4%. We conclude that injecting a single intermediate layer leads to a significant performance boost (+4.1% top-1 accuracy), but deep CNNs are still somewhat better (+1.5% top-1 accuracy). These results are however quite encouraging since they were obtained by using off-the-shelf features and encodings, reconfigured to add a single intermediate layer. Notably, our model did not require an optimised GPU implementation, nor it was necessary to control over-fitting by techniques such as dropout [14] and training set augmentation. Finally, we demonstrate that the Fisher network and deep CNN representations are complementary by combining the class posteriors obtained from CNN with those of a Fisher network. To this end, we re-implemented the deep CNN of [14] using their publicly available cuda-convnet toolbox. Our implementation performs slightly better, giving 62.91% / 83.19% (with test set augmentation). The multiplication of CNN and Fisher network posteriors leads to a significantly improved accuracy: 66.75% / 85.64%. It should be noted that another way of improving the CNN accuracy, used in [14] on ImageNet-2012 dataset, consists in training several CNNs and averaging their posteriors. Further study of the complementarity of various deep and shallow representations is beyond the scope of this paper, and will be addressed in future research. 7 Conclusion We have shown that Fisher vectors, a standard image encoding method, are amenable to be stacked in multiple layers, in analogy to the state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures. Adding a single layer is in fact sufficient to significantly boost the performance of these shallow image encodings, bringing their performance closer to the state of the art in the large-scale classification scenario [14]. The fact that off-the-shelf image representations can be simply and successfully stacked indicates that deep schemes may extend well beyond neural networks. Acknowledgements This work was supported by ERC grant VisRec no. 228180. 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Sinkhorn Distances: Lightspeed Computation of Optimal Transport Marco Cuturi Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University [email protected] Abstract Optimal transport distances are a fundamental family of distances for probability measures and histograms of features. Despite their appealing theoretical properties, excellent performance in retrieval tasks and intuitive formulation, their computation involves the resolution of a linear program whose cost can quickly become prohibitive whenever the size of the support of these measures or the histograms? dimension exceeds a few hundred. We propose in this work a new family of optimal transport distances that look at transport problems from a maximumentropy perspective. We smooth the classic optimal transport problem with an entropic regularization term, and show that the resulting optimum is also a distance which can be computed through Sinkhorn?s matrix scaling algorithm at a speed that is several orders of magnitude faster than that of transport solvers. We also show that this regularized distance improves upon classic optimal transport distances on the MNIST classification problem. 1 Introduction Choosing a suitable distance to compare probabilities is a key problem in statistical machine learning. When little is known on the probability space on which these probabilities are supported, various information divergences with minimalistic assumptions have been proposed to play that part, among which the Hellinger, ?2 , total variation or Kullback-Leibler divergences. When the probability space is a metric space, optimal transport distances (Villani, 2009, ?6), a.k.a. earth mover?s (EMD) in computer vision (Rubner et al., 1997), define a more powerful geometry to compare probabilities. This power comes, however, with a heavy computational price tag. No matter what the algorithm employed ? network simplex or interior point methods ? the cost of computing optimal transport distances scales at least in O(d3 log(d)) when comparing two histograms of dimension d or two point clouds each of size d in a general metric space (Pele and Werman, 2009, ?2.1). In the particular case that the metric probability space of interest can be embedded in Rn and n is small, computing or approximating optimal transport distances can become reasonably cheap. Indeed, when n = 1, their computation only requires O(d log d) operations. When n ? 2, embeddings of measures can be used to approximate them in linear time (Indyk and Thaper, 2003; Grauman and Darrell, 2004; Shirdhonkar and Jacobs, 2008) and network simplex solvers can be modified to run in quadratic time (Gudmundsson et al., 2007; Ling and Okada, 2007). However, the distortions of such embeddings (Naor and Schechtman, 2007) as well as the exponential increase of costs incurred by such modifications as n grows make these approaches inapplicable when n exceeds 4. Outside of the perimeter of these cases, computing a single distance between a pair of measures supported by a few hundred points/bins in an arbitrary metric space can take more than a few seconds on a single CPU. This issue severely hinders the applicability of optimal transport distances in large-scale data analysis and goes as far as putting into question their relevance within the field of machine learning, where high-dimensional histograms and measures in high-dimensional spaces are now prevalent. 1 We show in this paper that another strategy can be employed to speed-up optimal transport, and even potentially define a better distance in inference tasks. Our strategy is valid regardless of the metric characteristics of the original probability space. Rather than exploit properties of the metric probability space of interest (such as embeddability in a low-dimensional Euclidean space) we choose to focus directly on the original transport problem, and regularize it with an entropic term. We argue that this regularization is intuitive given the geometry of the optimal transport problem and has, in fact, been long known and favored in transport theory to predict traffic patterns (Wilson, 1969). From an optimization point of view, this regularization has multiple virtues, among which that of turning the transport problem into a strictly convex problem that can be solved with matrix scaling algorithms. Such algorithms include Sinkhorn?s celebrated fixed point iteration (1967), which is known to have a linear convergence (Franklin and Lorenz, 1989; Knight, 2008). Unlike other iterative simplex-like methods that need to cycle through complex conditional statements, the execution of Sinkhorn?s algorithm only relies on matrix-vector products. We propose a novel implementation of this algorithm that can compute simultaneously the distance of a single point to a family of points using matrix-matrix products, and which can therefore be implemented on GPGPU architectures. We show that, on the benchmark task of classifying MNIST digits, regularized distances perform better than standard optimal transport distances, and can be computed several orders of magnitude faster. This paper is organized as follows: we provide reminders on optimal transport theory in Section 2, introduce Sinkhorn distances in Section 3 and provide algorithmic details in Section 4. We follow with an empirical study in Section 5 before concluding. 2 Reminders on Optimal Transport Transport Polytope and Interpretation as a Set of Joint Probabilities In what follows, h?, ?i stands for the Frobenius dot-product. For two probability vectors r and c in the simplex ?d := {x ? Rd+ : xT 1d = 1}, where 1d is the d dimensional vector of ones, we write U (r, c) for the transport polytope of r and c, namely the polyhedral set of d ? d matrices, U (r, c) := {P ? Rd?d | P 1d = r, P T 1d = c}. + U (r, c) contains all nonnegative d ? d matrices with row and column sums r and c respectively. U (r, c) has a probabilistic interpretation: for X and Y two multinomial random variables taking values in {1, ? ? ? , d}, each with distribution r and c respectively, the set U (r, c) contains all possible joint probabilities of (X, Y ). Indeed, any matrix P ? U (r, c) can be identified with a joint probability for (X, Y ) such that p(X = i, Y = j) = pij . We define the entropy h and the Kullback-Leibler divergences of P, Q ? U (r, c) and a marginals r ? ?d as h(r) = ? d X i=1 ri log ri , h(P ) = ? d X pij log pij , KL(P kQ) = X ij i,j=1 pij log pij . qij Optimal Transport Distance Between r and c Given a d ? d cost matrix M , the cost of mapping r to c using a transport matrix (or joint probability) P can be quantified as hP, M i. The problem defined in Equation (1) (1) dM (r, c) := min hP, M i. P ?U(r,c) is called an optimal transport (OT) problem between r and c given cost M . An optimal table P ? for this problem can be obtained, among other approaches, with the network simplex (Ahuja et al., 1993, ?9). The optimum of this problem, dM (r, c), is a distance between r and c (Villani, 2009, ?6.1) whenever the matrix M is itself a metric matrix, namely whenever M belongs to the cone of distance matrices (Avis, 1980; Brickell et al., 2008): M = {M ? Rd?d : ?i, j ? d, mij = 0 ? i = j, ?i, j, k ? d, mij ? mik + mkj }. + For a general matrix M , the worst case complexity of computing that optimum scales in O(d3 log d) for the best algorithms currently proposed, and turns out to be super-cubic in practice as well (Pele and Werman, 2009, ?2.1). 2 3 Sinkhorn Distances: Optimal Transport with Entropic Constraints Entropic Constraints on Joint Probabilities The following information theoretic inequality (Cover and Thomas, 1991, ?2) for joint probabilities ?r, c ? ?d , ?P ? U (r, c), h(P ) ? h(r) + h(c), is tight, since the independence table rcT (Good, 1963) has entropy h(rcT ) = h(r) + h(c). By the concavity of entropy, we can introduce the convex set U? (r, c) := {P ? U (r, c) | KL(P krcT ) ? ?} = {P ? U (r, c) | h(P ) ? h(r)+h(c)??} ? U (r, c). These two definitions are indeed equivalent, since one can easily check that KL(P krcT ) = h(r) + h(c) ? h(P ), a quantity which is also the mutual information I(XkY ) of two random variables (X, Y ) should they follow the joint probability P (Cover and Thomas, 1991, ?2). Hence, the set of tables P whose Kullback-Leibler divergence to rcT is constrained to lie below a certain threshold can be interpreted as the set of joint probabilities P in U (r, c) which have sufficient entropy with respect to h(r) and h(c), or small enough mutual information. For reasons that will become clear in Section 4, we call the quantity below the Sinkhorn distance of r and c: Definition 1 (Sinkhorn Distance). dM,? (r, c) := min hP, M i P ?U? (r,c) Why consider an entropic constraint in optimal transport? The first reason is computational, and is detailed in Section 4. The second reason is built upon the following intuition. As a classic result of linear optimization, the OT problem is always solved on a vertex of U (r, c). Such a vertex is a sparse d ? d matrix with only up to 2d ? 1 non-zero elements (Brualdi, 2006, ?8.1.3). From a probabilistic perspective, such vertices are quasi-deterministic joint probabilities, since if pij > 0, then very few probabilities pij ? for j 6= j ? will be non-zero in general. Rather than considering such outliers of U (r, c) as the basis of OT distances, we propose to restrict the search for low cost joint probabilities to tables with sufficient smoothness. Note that this is equivalent to considering the maximum-entropy principle (Jaynes, 1957; Darroch and Ratcliff, 1972) if we were to maximize entropy while keeping the transportation cost constrained. Before proceeding to the description of the properties of Sinkhorn distances, we note that Ferradans et al. (2013) have recently explored similar ideas. They relax and penalize (through graph-based norms) the original transport problem to avoid undesirable properties exhibited by the original optima in the problem of color matching. Combined, their idea and ours suggest that many more smooth regularizers will be worth investigating to solve the the OT problem, driven by either or both computational and modeling motivations. Metric Properties of Sinkhorn Distances When ? is large enough, the Sinkhorn distance coincides with the classic OT distance. When ? = 0, the Sinkhorn distance has a closed form and becomes a negative definite kernel if one assumes that M is itself a negative definite distance, or equivalently a Euclidean distance matrix1 . Property 1. For ? large enough, the Sinkhorn distance dM,? is the transport distance dM . Proof. Since for any P ? U (r, c), h(P ) is lower bounded by 21 (h(r) + h(c)), we have that for ? large enough U? (r, c) = U (r, c) and thus both quantities coincide. Property 2 (Independence Kernel). dM,0 = rT M c. If M is a Euclidean distance matrix, dM,0 is a negative definite kernel and e?tdM,0 , the independence kernel, is positive definite for all t > 0. The proof is provided in the appendix. Beyond these two extreme cases, the main theorem of this section states that Sinkhorn distances are symmetric and satisfy triangle inequalities for all possible values of ?. Since for ? small enough dM,? (r, r) > 0 for any r such that h(r) > 0, Sinkhorn distances cannot satisfy the coincidence axiom (d(x, y) = 0 ? x = y holds for all x, y). However, multiplying dM,? by 1r6=c suffices to recover the coincidence property if needed. Theorem 1. For all ? ? 0 and M ? M, dM,? is symmetric and satisfies all triangle inequalities. The function (r, c) 7? 1r6=c dM,? (r, c) satisfies all three distance axioms. 1 ?n, ??1 , ? ? ? , ?d ? Rn such that mij = k?i ? ?j k22 . Recall that, in that case, M raised to power t element-wise, [mtij ], 0 < t < 1 is also a Euclidean distance matrix (Berg et al., 1984, p.78,?3.2.10). 3 U (r, c) M P ?max machine-precision limit ?=0 rcT ??? U?(r, c) P? P ? P?= argmin hP, M i P? ? P = argminhP, M i P? P ?U? (r,c) ? P = P ?U(r,c) argminhP, M i? ?1 h(P ) P ?U(r,c) Rd?d Figure 1: Transport polytope U (r, c) and Kullback-Leibler ball U? (r, c) of level ? centered around rcT . This drawing implicitly assumes that the optimal transport P ? is unique. The Sinkhorn distance dM,? (r, c) is equal to hP? , M i, the minimum of the dot product with M on that ball. For ? large enough, both objectives coincide, as U? (r, c) gradually overlaps with U (r, c) in the vicinity of P ? . The dual-sinkhorn distance d?M (r, c), the minimum of the transport problem regularized by minus the entropy divided by ?, reaches its minimum at a unique solution P ? , forming a regularization path for varying ? from rcT to P ? . For a given value of ?, and a pair (r, c) there exists ? ? [0, ?] such that both d?M (r, c) and dM,? (r, c) coincide. d?M can be efficiently computed using Sinkhorn?s fixed point iteration (1967). Although the convergence to P ? of this fixed point iteration is theoretically guaranteed as ? ? ?, the procedure cannot work beyond a problem-dependent value ?max beyond which some entries of e??M are represented as zeroes in memory. The gluing lemma (Villani, 2009, p.19) is key to proving that OT distances are indeed distances. We propose a variation of this lemma to prove our result: Lemma 1 (Gluing Lemma With Entropic Constraint). Let ? ?P0 and x, y, z ? ?d . Let P ? p q U? (x, y) and Q ? U? (y, z). Let S be the d ? d defined as sik := j ijyjjk . Then S ? U? (x, z). The proof is provided in the appendix. We can prove the triangle inequality for dM,? by using the same proof strategy than that used for classic transport distances: Proof of Theorem 1. The symmetry of dM,? is a direct result of M ?s symmetry. Let x, y, z be three elements in ?d . Let P ? U? (x, y) and Q ? U? (y, z) be two optimal solutions for dM,? (x, y) and dM,? (y, z) respectively. Using the matrix S of U? (x, z) provided in Lemma 1, we proceed with the following chain of inequalities: X X pij qjk X pij qjk dM,? (x, z) = min hP, M i ? hS, M i = mik ? (mij + mjk ) P ?U? (x,z) y yj j j ik ijk X X qjk X X X pij pij qjk pij qjk = mij mij pij + mjk = + mjk qjk yj yj yj yj ij i ijk k jk X X mij pij + mjk qjk = dM,? (x, y) + dM,? (y, z).  = ij jk 4 Computing Regularized Transport with Sinkhorn?s Algorithm We consider in this section a Lagrange multiplier for the entropy constraint of Sinkhorn distances: For ? > 0, d?M (r, c) := hP ? , M i, where P ? = argmin hP, M i ? P ?U(r,c) 1 h(P ). ? (2) By duality theory we have that to each ? corresponds a ? ? [0, ?] such that dM,? (r, c) = d?M (r, c) holds for that pair (r, c). We call d?M the dual-Sinkhorn divergence and show that it can be computed 4 for a much cheaper cost than the original distance dM . Figure 1 summarizes the relationships between dM , dM,? and d?M . Since the entropy of P ? decreases monotonically with ?, computing dM,? can be carried out by computing d?M with increasing values of ? until h(P ? ) reaches h(r)+h(c)??. We do not consider this problem here and only use the dual-Sinkhorn divergence in our experiments. Computing d?M with Matrix Scaling Algorithms Adding an entropy regularization to the optimal transport problem enforces a simple structure on the optimal regularized transport P ? : Lemma 2. For ? > 0, the solution P ? is unique and has the form P ? = diag(u)K diag(v), where u and v are two non-negative vectors of Rd uniquely defined up to a multiplicative factor and K := e??M is the element-wise exponential of ??M . Proof. The existence and unicity of P ? follows from the boundedness of U (r, c) and the strict convexity of minus the entropy. The fact that P ? can be written as a rescaled version of K is a well known fact in transport theory (Erlander and Stewart, 1990, ?3.3): let L(P, ?, ?) be the Lagrangian of Equation (2) with dual variables ?, ? ? Rd for the two equality constraints in U (r, c): X1 pij log pij + pij mij + ?T (P 1d ? r) + ? T (P T 1d ? c). L(P, ?, ?) = ? ij For any couple (i, j), (?L/?pij = 0) ? pij = e?1/2???i e??mij e?1/2???j . Since K is strictly positive, Sinkhorn?s theorem (1967) states that there exists a unique matrix of the form diag(u)K diag(v) that belongs to U (r, c), where u, v ? 0d . P ? is thus necessarily that matrix, and can be computed with Sinkhorn?s fixed point iteration (u, v) ? (r./Kv, c./K ? u).  Given K and marginals r and c, one only needs to iterate Sinkhorn?s update a sufficient number of times to converge to P ? . One can show that these successive updates carry out iteratively the projection of K on U (r, c) in the Kullback-Leibler sense. This fixed point iteration can be written as a single update u ? r./K(c./K ? u). When r > 0d , diag(1./r)K can be stored in a d ? d matrix ? ? to save one Schur vector product operation with the update u ? 1./(K(c./K ? K u)). This can be easily ensured by selecting the positive indices of r, as seen in the first line of Algorithm 1. Algorithm 1 Computation of d = [d?M (r, c1 ), ? ? ? , d?M (r, cN )], using Matlab syntax. Input M, ?, r, C := [c1 , ? ? ? , cN ]. I = (r > 0); r = r(I); M = M (I, :); K = exp(??M ) u = ones(length(r), N )/length(r); ? = bsxfun(@rdivide, K, r) % equivalent to K ? = diag(1./r)K K while u changes or any other relevant stopping criterion do ? ? u = 1./(K(C./(K u))) end while v = C./(K ? u) d = sum(u. ? ((K. ? M )v) Parallelism, Convergence and Stopping Criteria As can be seen right above, Sinkhorn?s algorithm can be vectorized and generalized to N target histograms c1 , ? ? ? , cN . When N = 1 and C is a vector in Algorithm 1, we recover the simple iteration mentioned in the proof of Lemma 2. When N > 1, the computations for N target histograms can be simultaneously carried out by updating a single matrix of scaling factors u ? Rd?N instead of updating a scaling vector u ? Rd+ . + This important observation makes the execution of Algorithm 1 particularly suited to GPGPU platforms. Despite ongoing research in that field (Bieling et al., 2010) such speed ups have not been yet achieved on complex iterative procedures such as the network simplex. Using Hilbert?s projective metric, Franklin and Lorenz (1989) prove that the convergence of the scaling factor u (as well as v) is linear, with a rate bounded above by ?(K)2 , where p ?(K) ? 1 Kil Kjm ?(K) = p . < 1, and ?(K) = max i,j,l,m Kjl Kim ?(K) + 1 The upper bound ?(K) tends to 1 as ? grows, and we do observe a slower convergence as P ? gets closer to the optimal vertex P ? (or the optimal facet of U (r, c) if it is not unique). Different stopping criteria can be used for Algorithm 1. We consider two in this work, which we detail below. 5 5 Experimental Results MNIST Digits We test the performance of dual-Sinkhorn divergences on the MNIST digits dataset. Each image is converted to a vector of intensities on the 20 ? 20 pixel grid, which are then normalized to sum to 1. We consider a subset of N ? {3, 5, 12, 17, 25} ? 103 points in the dataset. For each subset, we provide mean and standard deviation of classification error using a 4 fold (3 test, 1 train) cross validation (CV) scheme repeated 6 times, resulting in 24 different experiments. Given a distance d, we form the kernel e?d/t , where t > 0 is chosen by CV on each training fold within {1, q10 (d), q20 (d), q50 (d)}, where qs is the s% quantile of a subset of distances observed in that fold. We regularize non-positive definite kernel matrices Figure 2: Average test errors with shaded confiresulting from this computation by adding dence intervals. Errors are computed using 1/4 of the a sufficiently large diagonal term. SVM?s dataset for train and 3/4 for test. Errors are averaged were run with Libsvm (one-vs-one) for mul- over 4 folds ? 6 repeats = 24 experiments. ticlass classification. We select the regularization C in 10{?2,0,4} using 2 folds/2 repeats CV on the training fold. We consider the Hellinger, ?2 , total variation and squared Euclidean (Gaussian kernel) distances. M is the 400 ? 400 matrix of Euclidean distances between the 20 ? 20 bins in the grid. We also tried Mahalanobis distances on this example using exp(-tM.?2), t>0 as well as its inverse, with varying values of t, but none of these results proved competitive. For the Independence kernel we considered [maij ] where a ? {0.01, 0.1, 1} is chosen by CV on each training fold. We select ? in {5, 7, 9, 11} ? 1/q50 (M ) where q50 (M (:)) is the median distance between pixels. We set the number of fixed-point iterations to an arbitrary number of 20 iterations. In most (though not all) folds, the value ? = 9 comes up as the best setting. The dual-Sinkhorn divergence beats by a safe margin all other distances, including the classic optimal transport distance, here labeled as EMD. Distribution of (Sinkhorn?EMD)/EMD Does the Dual-Sinkhorn Divergence Converge to the EMD? We study the converDeviation of Sinkhorn?s Distance to EMD on subset of MNIST Data gence of the dual-Sinkhorn divergence towards classic optimal transport distances as 1.4 ? grows. Because of the regularization in 1.2 Equation (2), d?M (r, c) is necessarily larger than dM (r, c), and we expect this gap to de1 crease as ? increases. Figure 3 illustrates this by plotting the boxplot of the distri0.8 butions of (d?M (r, c) ? dM (r, c))/dM (r, c) over 402 pairs of images from the MNIST 0.6 database. d?M typically approximates the 0.4 EMD with a high accuracy when ? exceeds 50 (median relative gap of 3.4% and 1.2% 0.2 for 50 and 100 respectively). For this experiment as well as all the other experiments be1 5 9 15 25 50 100 ? low, we compute a vector of N divergences d at each iteration, and stop when none of the N values of d varies more in absolute Figure 3: Decrease of the gap between the dualvalue than a 1/100th of a percent i.e. we stop Sinkhorn divergence and the EMD as a function of ? on a subset of the MNIST dataset. when kdt ./dt?1 ? 1k? < 1e ? 4. 6 Avg. Execution Time per Distance (in s.) Several Orders of Magnitude Faster Computational Speed for Histograms of We measure the computational speed of Varying Dimension Drawn Uniformly on the Simplex (log log scale) classic optimal transport distances vs. that of dual-Sinkhorn divergences using RubFastEMD 2 Rubner?s emd 10 ner et al.?s (1997) and Pele and WerSink. CPU ?=50 man?s (2009) publicly available impleSink. GPU ?=50 mentations. We pick a random distance Sink. CPU ?=10 matrix M by generating a random graph Sink. GPU ?=10 0 10 Sink. CPU ?=1 of d vertices with edge presence probabilSink. GPU ?=1 ity 1/2 and edge weights uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. M is the all?2 pairs shortest-path matrix obtained from 10 this connectivity matrix using the FloydWarshall algorithm (Ahuja et al., 1993, ?5.6). Using this procedure, M is likely ?4 10 to be an extreme ray of the cone M (Avis, 1980, p.138). The elements of M are then normalized to have unit median. We 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 implemented Algorithm 1 in matlab, and Histogram Dimension use emd mex and emd hat gd metric mex/C files. The EMD distances and Figure 4: Average computational time required to comSinkhorn CPU are run on a single core pute a distance between two histograms sampled uni(2.66 Ghz Xeon). Sinkhorn GPU is run formly in the d dimensional simplex for varying values on a NVidia Quadro K5000 card. We con- of d. Dual-Sinkhorn divergences are run both on a sinsider ? in {1, 10, 50}. ? = 1 results in gle CPU and on a GPU card. a relatively dense matrix K, with results comparable to that of the Independence kernel, while for ? = 10 or 50 K = e??M has very small values. Rubner et al.?s implementation cannot be run for histograms larger than d = 512. As can be expected, the competitive advantage of dual-Sinkhorn divergences over EMD solvers increases with the dimension. Using a GPU results in a speed-up of an additional order of magnitude. Empirical Complexity To provide an accurate picture of the actual cost of the algorithm, we replicate the experiments above but focus now on the number of iterations (matrix-matrix products) typically needed to obtain the convergence of a set of N divergences from a given point r, all uniformly sampled on the simplex. As can be seen in Figure 5, the number of iterations required for vector d to converge increases as e??M becomes diagonally dominant. However, the total number of iterations does not seem to vary with respect to the dimension. This observation can explain why we do observe a quadratic (empirical) time complexity O(d2 ) with respect to the dimension d in Figure 4 above. These results suggest that the costly action of keeping track of the actual approximation error (computing variations in d) Figure 5: The influence of ? on the number of is not required, and that simply predefining a iterations required to converge on histograms unifixed number of iterations can work well and formly sampled from the simplex. yield even additional speedups. 6 Conclusion We have shown that regularizing the optimal transport problem with an entropic penalty opens the door for new numerical approaches to compute OT. This regularization yields speed-ups that are effective regardless of any assumptions on the ground metric M . Based on preliminary evidence, it 7 seems that dual-Sinkhorn divergences do not perform worse than the EMD, and may in fact perform better in applications. Dual-Sinkhorn divergences are parameterized by a regularization weight ? which should be tuned having both computational and performance objectives in mind, but we have not observed a need to establish a trade-off between both. Indeed, reasonably small values of ? seem to perform better than large ones. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank: Zaid Harchaoui for suggesting the title of this paper and highlighting the connection between the mutual information of P and its Kullback-Leibler divergence to rcT ; Lieven Vandenberghe, Philip Knight, Sanjeev Arora, Alexandre d?Aspremont and Shun-Ichi Amari for fruitful discussions; reviewers for anonymous comments. 7 Appendix: Proofs Proof of Property 1. The set U1 (r, c) contains all joint probabilities P for which h(P ) = h(r) + h(c). In that case (Cover and Thomas, 1991, Theorem 2.6.6) applies and U1 (r, c) can only be equal to the singleton {rcT }. If M is negative definite, there exists vectors (?1 , ? ? ? , ?d ) in some Euclidean space Rn such that mij = k?i ? ?j k22 through (Berg et al., 1984, ?3.3.2). We thus have that X X X X hri ?i , cj ?j i ci k?i k2 ) ? 2 ri k?i k2 + ri cj k?i ? ?j k2 = ( rT M c = i i ij T T ij T = r u + c u ? 2r Kc P P where ui = k?i k2 and Kij = h?i , ?j i. We used the fact that ri = ci = 1 to go from the first to the second equality. rT M c is thus a n.d. kernel because it is the sum of two n.d. kernels: the first term (rT u + cT u) is the sum of the same function evaluated separately on r and c, and thus a negative definite kernel (Berg et al., 1984, ?3.2.10); the latter term ?2rT Ku is negative definite as minus a positive definite kernel (Berg et al., 1984, Definition ?3.1.1). Remark. The proof above suggests a faster way to compute the Independence kernel. Given a matrix M , one can indeed pre-compute the vector of norms u as well as a Cholesky factor L of K above to preprocess a dataset of histograms by premultiplying each observations ri by L and only store Lri as well as precomputing its diagonal term riT u. Note that the independence kernel is positive definite on histograms with the same 1-norm, but is no longer positive definite for arbitrary vectors. Proof of Lemma 1. Let T be the a probability distribution on {1, ? ? ? , d}3 whose coefficients are defined as pij qjk tijk := , (3) yj for all indices j such that yj > 0. For indices j such that yj = 0, all values tijk are set to 0. P Let S := [ j tijk ]ik . S is a transport matrix between x and z. Indeed, X qjk X X XX X X pij qjk X qjk = yj = qjk = zk (column sums) sijk = pij = yj yj i yj j j i j j i j X pij X pij X X X X pij qjk XX pij = xi (row sums) qjk = = yj = sijk = yj yj yj j j j j j k k k We now prove that h(S) ? h(x) + h(z) ? ?. Let (X, Y, Z) be three random variables jointly distributed as T . Since by definition of T in Equation (3) p(X, Y, Z) = p(X, Y )p(Y, Z)/p(Y ) = p(X)p(Y |X)p(Z|Y ), the triplet (X, Y, Z) is a Markov chain X ? Y ? Z (Cover and Thomas, 1991, Equation 2.118) and thus, by virtue of the data processing inequality (Cover and Thomas, 1991, Theorem 2.8.1), the following inequality between mutual informations applies: I(X; Y ) ? I(X; Z), namely h(X, Z) ? h(X) ? h(Z) ? h(X, Y ) ? h(X) ? h(Y ) ? ??. 8 References Ahuja, R., Magnanti, T., and Orlin, J. (1993). Network Flows: Theory, Algorithms and Applications. Prentice Hall. Avis, D. (1980). On the extreme rays of the metric cone. Canadian Journal of Mathematics, 32(1):126?144. Berg, C., Christensen, J., and Ressel, P. (1984). Harmonic Analysis on Semigroups. Number 100 in Graduate Texts in Mathematics. Springer Verlag. Bieling, J., Peschlow, P., and Martini, P. (2010). An efficient gpu implementation of the revised simplex method. In Parallel Distributed Processing, 2010 IEEE International Symposium on, pages 1?8. Brickell, J., Dhillon, I., Sra, S., and Tropp, J. (2008). The metric nearness problem. SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl, 30(1):375?396. Brualdi, R. A. (2006). Combinatorial matrix classes, volume 108. Cambridge University Press. Cover, T. and Thomas, J. (1991). Elements of Information Theory. Wiley & Sons. Darroch, J. N. and Ratcliff, D. (1972). Generalized iterative scaling for log-linear models. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 43(5):1470?1480. Erlander, S. and Stewart, N. (1990). The gravity model in transportation analysis: theory and extensions. Vsp. Ferradans, S., Papadakis, N., Rabin, J., Peyr?e, G., Aujol, J.-F., et al. (2013). Regularized discrete optimal transport. In International Conference on Scale Space and Variational Methods in Computer Vision, pages 1?12. Franklin, J. and Lorenz, J. (1989). On the scaling of multidimensional matrices. Linear Algebra and its applications, 114:717?735. Good, I. (1963). Maximum entropy for hypothesis formulation, especially for multidimensional contingency tables. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, pages 911?934. Grauman, K. and Darrell, T. (2004). Fast contour matching using approximate earth mover?s distance. In IEEE Conf. Vision and Patt. Recog., pages 220?227. Gudmundsson, J., Klein, O., Knauer, C., and Smid, M. (2007). Small manhattan networks and algorithmic applications for the earth movers distance. In Proceedings of the 23rd European Workshop on Computational Geometry, pages 174?177. Indyk, P. and Thaper, N. (2003). Fast image retrieval via embeddings. In 3rd International Workshop on Statistical and Computational Theories of Vision (at ICCV). Jaynes, E. T. (1957). Information theory and statistical mechanics. Phys. Rev., 106:620?630. Knight, P. A. (2008). The sinkhorn-knopp algorithm: convergence and applications. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications, 30(1):261?275. Ling, H. and Okada, K. (2007). An efficient earth mover?s distance algorithm for robust histogram comparison. IEEE transactions on Patt. An. and Mach. Intell., pages 840?853. Naor, A. and Schechtman, G. (2007). Planar earthmover is not in l1 . SIAM J. Comput., 37(3):804?826. Pele, O. and Werman, M. (2009). Fast and robust earth mover?s distances. In ICCV?09. Rubner, Y., Guibas, L., and Tomasi, C. (1997). The earth movers distance, multi-dimensional scaling, and color-based image retrieval. In Proceedings of the ARPA Image Understanding Workshop, pages 661?668. Shirdhonkar, S. and Jacobs, D. (2008). Approximate earth movers distance in linear time. In CVPR 2008, pages 1?8. IEEE. Sinkhorn, R. (1967). Diagonal equivalence to matrices with prescribed row and column sums. The American Mathematical Monthly, 74(4):402?405. Villani, C. (2009). Optimal transport: old and new, volume 338. Springer Verlag. Wilson, A. G. (1969). The use of entropy maximising models, in the theory of trip distribution, mode split and route split. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, pages 108?126. 9
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Understanding variable importances in forests of randomized trees Gilles Louppe, Louis Wehenkel, Antonio Sutera and Pierre Geurts Dept. of EE & CS, University of Li`ege, Belgium {g.louppe, l.wehenkel, a.sutera, p.geurts}@ulg.ac.be Abstract Despite growing interest and practical use in various scientific areas, variable importances derived from tree-based ensemble methods are not well understood from a theoretical point of view. In this work we characterize the Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI) variable importances as measured by an ensemble of totally randomized trees in asymptotic sample and ensemble size conditions. We derive a three-level decomposition of the information jointly provided by all input variables about the output in terms of i) the MDI importance of each input variable, ii) the degree of interaction of a given input variable with the other input variables, iii) the different interaction terms of a given degree. We then show that this MDI importance of a variable is equal to zero if and only if the variable is irrelevant and that the MDI importance of a relevant variable is invariant with respect to the removal or the addition of irrelevant variables. We illustrate these properties on a simple example and discuss how they may change in the case of non-totally randomized trees such as Random Forests and Extra-Trees. 1 Motivation An important task in many scientific fields is the prediction of a response variable based on a set of predictor variables. In many situations though, the aim is not only to make the most accurate predictions of the response but also to identify which predictor variables are the most important to make these predictions, e.g. in order to understand the underlying process. Because of their applicability to a wide range of problems and their capability to both build accurate models and, at the same time, to provide variable importance measures, Random Forests (Breiman, 2001) and variants such as Extra-Trees (Geurts et al., 2006) have become a major data analysis tool used with success in various scientific areas. Despite their extensive use in applied research, only a couple of works have studied the theoretical properties and statistical mechanisms of these algorithms. Zhao (2000), Breiman (2004), Biau et al. (2008); Biau (2012), Meinshausen (2006) and Lin and Jeon (2006) investigated simplified to very realistic variants of these algorithms and proved the consistency of those variants. Little is known however regarding the variable importances computed by Random Forests like algorithms, and ? as far as we know ? the work of Ishwaran (2007) is indeed the only theoretical study of tree-based variable importance measures. In this work, we aim at filling this gap and present a theoretical analysis of the Mean Decrease Impurity importance derived from ensembles of randomized trees. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: in section 2, we provide the background about ensembles of randomized trees and recall how variable importances can be derived from them; in section 3, we then derive a characterization in asymptotic conditions and show how variable importances derived from totally randomized trees offer a three-level decomposition of the information jointly contained in the input variables about the output; section 4 shows that this characterization only depends on the relevant variables and section 5 1 discusses theses ideas in the context of variants closer to the Random Forest algorithm; section 6 then illustrates all these ideas on an artificial problem; finally, section 7 includes our conclusions and proposes directions of future works. 2 Background In this section, we first describe decision trees, as well as forests of randomized trees. Then, we describe the two major variable importances measures derived from them ? including the Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI) importance that we will study in the subsequent sections. 2.1 Single classification and regression trees and random forests A binary classification (resp. regression) tree (Breiman et al., 1984) is an input-output model represented by a tree structure T , from a random input vector (X1 , ..., Xp ) taking its values in X1 ? ... ? Xp = X to a random output variable Y ? Y . Any node t in the tree represents a subset of the space X , with the root node being X itself. Internal nodes t are labeled with a binary test (or split) st = (Xm < c) dividing their subset in two subsets1 corresponding to their two children tL and tR , while the terminal nodes (or leaves) are labeled with a best guess value of the output variable2 . The predicted output Y? for a new instance is the label of the leaf reached by the instance when it is propagated through the tree. A tree is built from a learning sample of size N drawn from P (X1 , ..., Xp , Y ) using a recursive procedure which identifies at each node t the split st = s? for which the partition of the Nt node samples into tL and tR maximizes the decrease ?i(s, t) = i(t) ? pL i(tL ) ? pR i(tR ) (1) of some impurity measure i(t) (e.g., the Gini index, the Shannon entropy, or the variance of Y ), and where pL = NtL /Nt and pR = NtR /Nt . The construction of the tree stops , e.g., when nodes become pure in terms of Y or when all variables Xi are locally constant. Single trees typically suffer from high variance, which makes them not competitive in terms of accuracy. A very efficient and simple way to address this flaw is to use them in the context of randomization-based ensemble methods. Specifically, the core principle is to introduce random perturbations into the learning procedure in order to produce several different decision trees from a single learning set and to use some aggregation technique to combine the predictions of all these trees. In Bagging (Breiman, 1996), trees are built on random bootstrap copies of the original data, hence producing different decision trees. In Random Forests (Breiman, 2001), Bagging is extended and combined with a randomization of the input variables that are used when considering candidate variables to split internal nodes t. In particular, instead of looking for the best split s? among all variables, the Random Forest algorithm selects, at each node, a random subset of K variables and then determines the best split over these latter variables only. 2.2 Variable importances In the context of ensembles of randomized trees, Breiman (2001, 2002) proposed to evaluate the importance of a variable Xm for predicting Y by adding up the weighted impurity decreases p(t)?i(st , t) for all nodes t where Xm is used, averaged over all NT trees in the forest: X 1 X Imp(Xm ) = p(t)?i(st , t) (2) NT T t?T :v(st )=Xm and where p(t) is the proportion Nt /N of samples reaching t and v(st ) is the variable used in split st . When using the Gini index as impurity function, this measure is known as the Gini importance or Mean Decrease Gini. However, since it can be defined for any impurity measure i(t), we will refer to Equation 2 as the Mean Decrease Impurity importance (MDI), no matter the impurity measure i(t). We will characterize and derive results for this measure in the rest of this text. 1 More generally, splits are defined by a (not necessarily binary) partition of the range Xm of possible values of a single variable Xm . 2 e.g. determined as the majority class j(t) (resp., the average value y?(t)) within the subset of the leaf t. 2 In addition to MDI, Breiman (2001, 2002) also proposed to evaluate the importance of a variable Xm by measuring the Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) of the forest when the values of Xm are randomly permuted in the out-of-bag samples. For that reason, this latter measure is also known as the permutation importance. Thanks to popular machine learning softwares (Breiman, 2002; Liaw and Wiener, 2002; Pedregosa et al., 2011), both of these variable importance measures have shown their practical utility in an increasing number of experimental studies. Little is known however regarding their inner workings. Strobl et al. (2007) compare both MDI and MDA and show experimentally that the former is biased towards some predictor variables. As explained by White and Liu (1994) in case of single decision trees, this bias stems from an unfair advantage given by the usual impurity functions i(t) towards predictors with a large number of values. Strobl et al. (2008) later showed that MDA is biased as well, and that it overestimates the importance of correlated variables ? although this effect was not confirmed in a later experimental study by Genuer et al. (2010). From a theoretical point of view, Ishwaran (2007) provides a detailed theoretical development of a simplified version of MDA, giving key insights for the understanding of the actual MDA. 3 Variable importances derived from totally randomized tree ensembles Let us now consider the MDI importance as defined by Equation 2, and let us assume a set V = {X1 , ..., Xp } of categorical input variables and a categorical output Y . For the sake of simplicity we will use the Shannon entropy as impurity measure, and focus on totally randomized trees; later on we will discuss other impurity measures and tree construction algorithms. Given a training sample L of N joint observations of X1 , ..., Xp , Y independently drawn from the joint distribution P (X1 , ..., Xp , Y ), let us assume that we infer from it an infinitely large ensemble of totally randomized and fully developed trees. In this setting, a totally randomized and fully developed tree is defined as a decision tree in which each node t is partitioned using a variable Xi picked uniformly at random among those not yet used at the parent nodes of t, and where each t is split into |Xi | sub-trees, i.e., one for each possible value of Xi , and where the recursive construction process halts only when all p variables have been used along the current branch. Hence, in such a tree, leaves are all at the same depth p, and the set of leaves of a fully developed tree is in bijection with the set X of all possible joint configurations of the p input variables. For example, if the input variables are all binary, the resulting tree will have exactly 2p leaves. Theorem 1. The MDI importance of Xm ? V for Y as computed with an infinite ensemble of fully developed totally randomized trees and an infinitely large training sample is: Imp(Xm ) = p?1 X 1 1 Cpk p ? k k=0 X I(Xm ; Y |B), (3) B?Pk (V ?m ) where V ?m denotes the subset V \ {Xm }, Pk (V ?m ) is the set of subsets of V ?m of cardinality k, and I(Xm ; Y |B) is the conditional mutual information of Xm and Y given the variables in B. Proof. See Appendix B. Theorem 2. For any ensemble of fully developed trees in asymptotic learning sample size conditions (e.g., in the same conditions as those of Theorem 1), we have that p X Imp(Xm ) = I(X1 , . . . , Xp ; Y ). (4) m=1 Proof. See Appendix C. Together, theorems 1 and 2 show that variable importances derived from totally randomized trees in asymptotic conditions provide a three-level decomposition of the information I(X1 , . . . , Xp ; Y ) contained in the set of input variables about the output variable. The first level is a decomposition among input variables (see Equation 4 of Theorem 2), the second level is a decomposition along the 3 degrees k of interaction terms of a variable with the other ones (see the outer sum in Equation 3 of Theorem 1), and the third level is a decomposition along the combinations B of interaction terms of fixed size k of possible interacting variables (see the inner sum in Equation 3). We observe that the decomposition includes, for each variable, each and every interaction term of each and every degree weighted in a fashion resulting only from the combinatorics of possible interaction terms. In particular, since all I(Xm ; Y |B) terms are at most equal to H(Y ), the prior entropy of Y , the p terms of the outer sum of Equation 3 are each upper bounded by X 1 1 1 1 1 k H(Y ) = k Cp?1 H(Y ) = H(Y ). k Cp p ? k C p ? k p p ?m B?Pk (V ) As such, the second level decomposition resulting from totally randomized trees makes the p subP 1 importance terms C1k p?k ?m ) I(Xm ; Y |B) to equally contribute (at most) to the total B?P (V k p importance, even though they each include a combinatorially different number of terms. 4 Importances of relevant and irrelevant variables Following Kohavi and John (1997), let us define as relevant to Y with respect to V a variable Xm for which there exists at least one subset B ? V (possibly empty) such that I(Xm ; Y |B) > 0.3 Thus we define as irrelevant to Y with respect to V a variable Xi for which, for all B ? V , I(Xi ; Y |B) = 0. Remark that if Xi is irrelevant to Y with respect to V , then by definition it is also irrelevant to Y with respect to any subset of V . Theorem 3. Xi ? V is irrelevant to Y with respect to V if and only if its infinite sample size importance as computed with an infinite ensemble of fully developed totally randomized trees built on V for Y is 0. Proof. See Appendix D. Lemma 4. Let Xi ? / V be an irrelevant variable for Y with respect to V . The infinite sample size importance of Xm ? V as computed with an infinite ensemble of fully developed totally randomized trees built on V for Y is the same as the importance derived when using V ? {Xi } to build the ensemble of trees for Y . Proof. See Appendix E. Theorem 5. Let VR ? V be the subset of all variables in V that are relevant to Y with respect to V . The infinite sample size importance of any variable Xm ? VR as computed with an infinite ensemble of fully developed totally randomized trees built on VR for Y is the same as its importance computed in the same conditions by using all variables in V . That is: p?1 X 1 1 Imp(Xm ) = Cpk p ? k k=0 r?1 X 1 1 = Crl r ? l l=0 X I(Xm ; Y |B) B?Pk (V ?m ) X (5) I(Xm ; Y |B) B?Pl (VR?m ) where r is the number of relevant variables in VR . Proof. See Appendix F. Theorems 3 and 5 show that the importances computed with an ensemble of totally randomized trees depends only on the relevant variables. Irrelevant variables have a zero importance and do not affect the importance of relevant variables. Practically, we believe that such properties are desirable conditions for a sound criterion assessing the importance of a variable. Indeed, noise should not be credited of any importance and should not make any other variable more (or less) important. 3 Among the relevant variables, we have the marginally relevant ones, for which I(Xm ; Y ) > 0, the strongly relevant ones, for which I(Xm ; Y |V ?m ) > 0, and the weakly relevant variables, which are relevant but not strongly relevant. 4 5 Random Forest variants In this section, we consider and discuss variable importances as computed with other types of ensembles of randomized trees. We first show how our results extend to any other impurity measure, and then analyze importances computed by depth-pruned ensemble of randomized trees and those computed by randomized trees built on random subspaces of fixed size. Finally, we discuss the case of non-totally randomized trees. 5.1 Generalization to other impurity measures Although our characterization in sections 3 and 4 uses Shannon entropy as the impurity measure, we show in Appendix I that theorems 1, 3 and 5 hold for other impurity measures, simply substituting conditional mutual information for conditional impurity reduction in the different formulas and in the definition of irrelevant variables. In particular, our results thus hold for the Gini index in classification and can be extended to regression problems using variance as the impurity measure. 5.2 Pruning and random subspaces In sections 3 and 4, we considered totally randomized trees that were fully developed, i.e. until all p variables were used within each branch. When totally randomized trees are developed only up to some smaller depth q ? p, we show in Proposition 6 that the variable importances as computed by these trees is limited to the q first terms of Equation 3. We then show in Proposition 7 that these latter importances are actually the same as when each tree of the ensemble is fully developed over a random subspace (Ho, 1998) of q variables drawn prior to its construction. Proposition 6. The importance of Xm ? V for Y as computed with an infinite ensemble of pruned totally randomized trees built up to depth q ? p and an infinitely large training sample is: Imp(Xm ) = q?1 X 1 1 k Cp p ? k k=0 X I(Xm ; Y |B) (6) B?Pk (V ?m ) Proof. See Appendix G. Proposition 7. The importance of Xm ? V for Y as computed with an infinite ensemble of pruned totally randomized trees built up to depth q ? p and an infinitely large training sample is identical to the importance as computed for Y with an infinite ensemble of fully developed totally randomized trees built on random subspaces of q variables drawn from V . Proof. See Appendix H. As long as q ? r (where r denotes the number of relevant variables in V ), it can easily be shown that all relevant variables will still obtain a strictly positive importance, which will however differ in general from the importances computed by fully grown totally randomized trees built over all variables. Also, each irrelevant variable of course keeps an importance equal to zero, which means that, in asymptotic conditions, these pruning and random subspace methods would still allow us identify the relevant variables, as long as we have a good upper bound q on r. 5.3 Non-totally randomized trees In our analysis in the previous sections, trees are built totally at random and hence do not directly relate to those built in Random Forests (Breiman, 2001) or in Extra-Trees (Geurts et al., 2006). To better understand the importances as computed by those algorithms, let us consider a close variant of totally randomized trees: at each node t, let us instead draw uniformly at random 1 ? K ? p variables and let us choose the one that maximizes ?i(t). Notice that, for K = 1, this procedure amounts to building ensembles of totally randomized trees as defined before, while, for K = p, it amounts to building classical single trees in a deterministic way. First, the importance of Xm ? V as computed with an infinite ensemble of such randomized trees is not the same as Equation 3. For K > 1, masking effects indeed appear: at t, some variables are 5 never selected because there always is some other variable for which ?i(t) is larger. Such effects tend to pull the best variables at the top of the trees and to push the others at the leaves. As a result, the importance of a variable no longer decomposes into a sum including all I(Xm ; Y |B) terms. The importance of the best variables decomposes into a sum of their mutual information alone or conditioned only with the best others ? but not conditioned with all variables since they no longer ever appear at the bottom of trees. By contrast, the importance of the least promising variables now decomposes into a sum of their mutual information conditioned only with all variables ? but not alone or conditioned with a couple of others since they no longer ever appear at the top of trees. In other words, because of the guided structure of the trees, the importance of Xm now takes into account only some of the conditioning sets B, which may over- or underestimate its overall relevance. To make things clearer, let us consider a simple example. Let X1 perfectly explains Y and let X2 be a slightly noisy copy of X1 (i.e., I(X1 ; Y ) ? I(X2 ; Y ), I(X1 ; Y |X2 ) =  and I(X2 ; Y |X1 ) = 0). Using totally randomized trees, the importances of X1 and X2 are nearly equal ? the importance of X1 being slightly higher than the importance of X2 : 1 1 1  Imp(X1 ) = I(X1 ; Y ) + I(X1 ; Y |X2 ) = I(X1 ; Y ) + 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 Imp(X2 ) = I(X2 ; Y ) + I(X2 ; Y |X1 ) = I(X2 ; Y ) + 0 2 2 2 In non-totally randomized trees, for K = 2, X1 is always selected at the root node and X2 is always used in its children. Also, since X1 perfectly explains Y , all its children are pure and the reduction of entropy when splitting on X2 is null. As a result, ImpK=2 (X1 ) = I(X1 ; Y ) and ImpK=2 (X2 ) = I(X2 ; Y |X1 ) = 0. Masking effects are here clearly visible: the true importance of X2 is masked by X1 as if X2 were irrelevant, while it is only a bit less informative than X1 . As a direct consequence of the example above, for K > 1, it is no longer true that a variable is irrelevant if and only if its importance is zero. In the same way, it can also be shown that the importances become dependent on the number of irrelevant variables. Let us indeed consider the following counter-example: let us add in the previous example an irrelevant variable Xi with respect to {X1 , X2 } and let us keep K = 2. The probability of selecting X2 at the root node now becomes positive, which means that ImpK=2 (X2 ) now includes I(X2 ; Y ) > 0 and is therefore strictly larger than the importance computed before. For K fixed, adding irrelevant variables dampens masking effects, which thereby makes importances indirectly dependent on the number of irrelevant variables. In conclusion, the importances as computed with totally randomized trees exhibit properties that do not possess, by extension, neither random forests nor extra-trees. With totally randomized trees, the importance of Xm only depends on the relevant variables and is 0 if and only if Xm is irrelevant. As we have shown, it may no longer be the case for K > 1. Asymptotically, the use of totally randomized trees for assessing the importance of a variable may therefore be more appropriate. In a finite setting (i.e., a limited number of samples and a limited number of trees), guiding the choice of the splitting variables remains however a sound strategy. In such a case, I(Xm ; Y |B) cannot be measured neither for all Xm nor for all B. It is therefore pragmatic to promote those that look the most promising ? even if the resulting importances may be biased. 6 Illustration on a digit recognition problem In this section, we consider the digit recognition problem of (Breiman et al., 1984) for illustrating variable importances as computed with totally randomized trees. We verify that they match with our theoretical developments and that they decompose as foretold. We also compare these importances with those computed by an ensemble of non-totally randomized trees, as discussed in section 5.3, for increasing values of K. Let us consider a seven-segment indicator displaying numerals using horizontal and vertical lights in on-off combinations, as illustrated in Figure 1. Let Y be a random variable taking its value in {0, 1, ..., 9} with equal probability and let X1 , ..., X7 be binary variables whose values are each determined univocally given the corresponding value of Y in Table 1. Since Table 1 perfectly defines the data distribution, and given the small dimensionality of the problem, it is practicable to directly apply Equation 3 to compute variable importances. To verify our 6 X1 X2 y 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 Eqn. 3 0.412 0.581 0.531 0.542 0.656 0.225 0.372 3.321 K=1 0.414 0.583 0.532 0.543 0.658 0.221 0.368 3.321 x2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 x3 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 x4 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 x5 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 x6 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 x7 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 Table 1: Values of Y, X1 , ..., X7 Figure 1: 7-segment display X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X P7 x1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 K=2 0.362 0.663 0.512 0.525 0.731 0.140 0.385 3.321 K=3 0.327 0.715 0.496 0.484 0.778 0.126 0.392 3.321 K=4 0.309 0.757 0.489 0.445 0.810 0.122 0.387 3.321 K=5 0.304 0.787 0.483 0.414 0.827 0.122 0.382 3.321 K=6 0.305 0.801 0.475 0.409 0.831 0.121 0.375 3.321 K=7 0.306 0.799 0.475 0.412 0.835 0.120 0.372 3.321 Table 2: Variable importances as computed with an ensemble of randomized trees, for increasing values of K. Importances at K = 1 follow their theoretical values, as predicted by Equation 3 in Theorem 1. However, as K increases, importances diverge due to masking effects. In accordance with Theorem 2, their sum is also always equal to I(X1 , . . . , X7 ; Y ) = H(Y ) = log2 (10) = 3.321 since inputs allow to perfectly predict the output. theoretical developments, we then compare in Table 2 variable importances as computed by Equation 3 and those yielded by an ensemble of 10000 totally randomized trees (K = 1). Note that given the known structure of the problem, building trees on a sample of finite size that perfectly follows the data distribution amounts to building them on a sample of infinite size. At best, trees can thus be built on a 10-sample dataset, containing exactly one sample for each of the equiprobable outcomes of Y . As the table illustrates, the importances yielded by totally randomized trees match those computed by Equation 3, which confirms Theorem 1. Small differences stem from the fact that a finite number of trees were built in our simulations, but those discrepancies should disappear as the size of the ensemble grows towards infinity. It also shows that importances indeed add up to I(X1 , ...X7 ; Y ), which confirms Theorem 2. Regarding the actual importances, they indicate that X5 is stronger than all others, followed ? in that order ? by X2 , X4 and X3 which also show large importances. X1 , X7 and X6 appear to be the less informative. The table also reports importances for increasing values of K. As discussed before, we see that a large value of K yields importances that can be either overestimated (e.g., at K = 7, the importances of X2 and X5 are larger than at K = 1) or underestimated due to masking effects (e.g., at K = 7, the importances of X1 , X3 , X4 and X6 are smaller than at K = 1, as if they were less important). It can also be observed that masking effects may even induce changes in the variable rankings (e.g., compare the rankings at K = 1 and at K = 7), which thus confirms that importances are differently affected. To better understand why a variable is important, it is also insightful to look at its decomposition into its p sub-importances terms, as shown in Figure 2. Each row in the plots of the figure corresponds to one the p = 7 variables and each column to a size k of conditioning sets. As such, the value at row m and column k corresponds the importance of Xm when conditioned with k other variables P 1 (e.g., to the term C1k p?k ?m ) I(Xm ; Y |B) in Equation 3 in the case of totally randomized B?P (V k p trees). In the left plot, for K = 1, the figure first illustrates how importances yielded by totally randomized trees decomposes along the degrees k of interactions terms. We can observe that they each equally contribute (at most) the total importance of a variable. The plot also illustrates why X5 is important: it is informative either alone or conditioned with any combination of the other variables (all of its terms are significantly larger than 0). By contrast, it also clearly shows why 7 K=1 0.5 K=7 X1 X1 X2 X2 X3 X3 X4 X4 X5 X5 X6 X6 X7 X7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.375 0.25 0.125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.0 Figure 2: Decomposition of variable importances along the degrees k of interactions of one variable with the other ones. At K = 1, all I(Xm ; Y |B) are accounted for in the total importance, while at K = 7 only some of them are taken into account due to masking effects. X6 is not important: neither alone nor combined with others X6 seems to be very informative (all of its terms are close to 0). More interestingly, this figure also highlights redundancies: X7 is informative alone or conditioned with a couple of others (the first terms are significantly larger than 0), but becomes uninformative when conditioned with many others (the last terms are closer to 0). The right plot, for K = 7, illustrates the decomposition of importances when variables are chosen in a deterministic way. The first thing to notice is masking effects. Some of the I(Xm ; Y |B) terms are indeed clearly never encountered and their contribution is therefore reduced to 0 in the total importance. For instance, for k = 0, the sub-importances of X2 and X5 are positive, while all others are null, which means that only those two variables are ever selected at the root node, hence masking the others. As a consequence, this also means that the importances of the remaining variables is biased and that it actually only accounts of their relevance when conditioned to X2 or X5 , but not of their relevance in other contexts. At k = 0, masking effects also amplify the contribution of I(X2 ; Y ) (resp. I(X5 ; Y )) since X2 (resp. X5 ) appears more frequently at the root node than in totally randomized trees. In addition, because nodes become pure before reaching depth p, conditioning sets of size k ? 4 are never actually encountered, which means that we can no longer know whether variables are still informative when conditioned to many others. All in all, this figure thus indeed confirms that importances as computed with non-totally randomized trees take into account only some of the conditioning sets B, hence biasing the measured importances. 7 Conclusions In this work, we made a first step towards understanding variable importances as computed with a forest of randomized trees. In particular, we derived a theoretical characterization of the Mean Decrease Impurity importances as computed by totally randomized trees in asymptotic conditions. We showed that they offer a three-level decomposition of the information jointly provided by all input variables about the output (Section 3). We then demonstrated (Section 4) that MDI importances as computed by totally randomized trees exhibit desirable properties for assessing the relevance of a variable: it is equal to zero if and only if the variable is irrelevant and it depends only on the relevant variables. We discussed the case of Random Forests and Extra-Trees (Section 5) and finally illustrated our developments on an artificial but insightful example (Section 6). There remain several limitations to our framework that we would like address in the future. First, our results should be adapted to binary splits as used within an actual Random Forest-like algorithm. In this setting, any node t is split in only two subsets, which means that any variable may then appear one or several times within a branch, and thus should make variable importances now dependent on the cardinalities of the input variables. In the same direction, our framework should also be extended to the case of continuous variables. Finally, results presented in this work are valid in an asymptotic setting only. An important direction of future work includes the characterization of the distribution of variable importances in a finite setting. Acknowledgements. Gilles Louppe is a research fellow of the FNRS (Belgium) and acknowledges its financial support. This work is supported by PASCAL2 and the IUAP DYSCO, initiated by the Belgian State, Science Policy Office. 8 References Biau, G. (2012). Analysis of a random forests model. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 98888:1063?1095. Biau, G., Devroye, L., and Lugosi, G. (2008). 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Learning and using language via recursive pragmatic reasoning about other agents Nathaniel J. Smith? University of Edinburgh Noah D. Goodman Stanford University Michael C. Frank Stanford University Abstract Language users are remarkably good at making inferences about speakers? intentions in context, and children learning their native language also display substantial skill in acquiring the meanings of unknown words. These two cases are deeply related: Language users invent new terms in conversation, and language learners learn the literal meanings of words based on their pragmatic inferences about how those words are used. While pragmatic inference and word learning have both been independently characterized in probabilistic terms, no current work unifies these two. We describe a model in which language learners assume that they jointly approximate a shared, external lexicon and reason recursively about the goals of others in using this lexicon. This model captures phenomena in word learning and pragmatic inference; it additionally leads to insights about the emergence of communicative systems in conversation and the mechanisms by which pragmatic inferences become incorporated into word meanings. 1 Introduction Two puzzles present themselves to language users: What do words mean in general, and what do they mean in context? Consider the utterances ?it?s raining,? ?I ate some of the cookies,? or ?can you close the window?? In each, a listener must go beyond the literal meaning of the words to fill in contextual details (?it?s raining here and now?), infer that a stronger alternative is not true (?I ate some but not all of the cookies?), or more generally infer the speaker?s communicative goal (?I want you to close the window right now because I?m cold?), a process known as pragmatic reasoning. Theories of pragmatics frame the process of language comprehension as inference about the generating goal of an utterance given a rational speaker [14, 8, 9]. For example, a listener might reason, ?if she had wanted me to think ?all? of the cookies, she would have said ?all??but she didn?t. Hence ?all? must not be true and she must have eaten some but not all of the cookies.? This kind of reasoning is core to language use. But pragmatic reasoning about meaning-in-context relies on stable literal meanings that must themselves be learned. In both adults and children, uncertainty about word meanings is common, and often considering speakers? pragmatic goals can help to resolve this uncertainty. For example, if a novel word is used in a context containing both a novel and a familiar object, young children can make the inference that the novel word refers to the novel object [22].1 For adults who are proficient language users, there are also a variety of intriguing cases in which listeners seem to create situation- and task-specific ways of referring to particular objects. For example, when asked to refer to idiosyncratic geometric shapes, over the course of an experimental session, participants create conventionalized descriptions that allow them to perform accurately even though they do not begin with shared labels [19, 7]. In both of these examples, reasoning about another person?s goals informs ? [email protected] Very young children make inferences that are often labeled as ?pragmatic? in that they involve reasoning about context [6, 1], though in some cases they are systematically ?too literal? (e.g. failing to strengthen SOME to SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL [23]). Here we remain agnostic about the age at which children are able to make such inferences robustly, as it may vary depending on the linguistic materials being used in the inference [2]. 1 1 language learners? estimates of what words are likely to mean. Despite this intersection, there is relatively little work that takes pragmatic reasoning into account when considering language learning in context. Recent work on grounded language learning has attempted to learn large sets of (sometimes relatively complex) word meanings from noisy and ambiguous input (e.g. [10, 17, 20]). And a number of models have begun to formalize the consequences of pragmatic reasoning in situations where limited learning takes place [12, 9, 3, 13]. But as yet these two strands of research have not been brought together so that the implications of pragmatics for learning can be investigated directly. The goal of our current work is to investigate the possibilities for integrating models of recursive pragmatic reasoning with models of language learning, with the hope of capturing phenomena in both domains. We begin by describing a proposal for bringing the two together, noting several issues in previous approaches based on recursive reasoning under uncertainty. We next simulate findings on pragmatic inference in one-shot games (replicating previous work). We then build on these results to simulate the results of pragmatic learning in the language acquisition setting where one communicator is uncertain about the lexicon and in iterated communication games where both communicators are uncertain about the lexicon. 2 Model We model a standard communication game [19, 7]: two participants each, separately, view identical arrays of objects. On the Speaker?s screen, one object is highlighted; their goal is to get the Listener to click on this item. To do this, they have available a fixed, finite set of words; they must pick one. The Listener then receives this word, and attempts to guess which object the Speaker meant by it. In the psychology literature, as in real-world interactions, games are typically iterated; one view of our contribution here is as a generalization of one-shot models [9, 3] to the iterated context. 2.1 Paradoxes in optimal models of pragmatic learning. Multi-agent interactions are difficult to model in a normative or optimal framework without falling prey to paradox. Consider a simple model of the agents in the above game. First we define a literal listener L0 . This agent has a lexicon of associations between words and meanings; specifically, it assigns each word w a vector of numbers in (0, 1) describing the extent to which this word provides evidence for each possible object2 .To interpret a word, the literal listener simply re-weights their prior expectation about what is referred to using their lexicon?s entry for this word: PL0 (object|word, lexicon) ? lexicon(word, object) ? Pprior (object). (1) Because of the normalization in this equation, there is a systematic but unimportant symmetry among lexicons; we remove this by assuming the lexicon sums to 1 over objects for each word. Confronted with such a listener, a speaker who chooses approximately optimal actions should attempt to choose a word which soft-maximizes the probability that the listener will assign to the target object?modulated by the effort or cost associated with producing this word:   PS1 (word|object, lexicon) ? exp ? log PL0 (object|word, lexicon) ? cost(word) . (2) But given this speaker, then the naive L0 strategy is not optimal. Instead, listeners should use Bayes rule to invert the speaker?s decision procedure [9]: PL2 (object|word, lexicon) ? PS1 (word|object, lexicon) ? Pprior (object). (3) Now a difficulty becomes apparent. Given such a listener, it is no longer optimal for speakers to implement strategy S1 ; instead, they should implement strategy S3 which soft-maximizes PL2 instead of PL0 . And then listeners ought to implement L4 , and so on. One option is to continue iterating such strategies until reaching a fixed point equilibrium. While this strategy guarantees that each agent will behave normatively given the other agent?s strategy, there is no guarantee that such strategies will be near the system?s global optimum. More importantly, 2 We assume words refer directly to objects, rather than to abstract semantic features. Our simplification is without loss of generalization, however, because wePcan interpret our model as marginalizing over such a representation, with our literal Plexicon (object|word) = features P (object|features)Plexicon (features|word). 2 there is a great deal of evidence that humans do not use such equilibrium strategies; their behavior in language games (and in other games [5]) can be well-modeled as implementing Sk or Lk for some small k [9]. Following this work, we recurse a finite (small) number of times, n. The consequence is that one agent, implementing Sn , is fully optimal with respect to the game, while the other, implementing Ln?1 , is only nearly optimal?off by a single recursion. This resolves one problem, but as soon as we attempt to add uncertainty about the meanings of words to such a model, a new paradox arises. Suppose the listener is a young child who is uncertain about the lexicon their partner is using. The obvious solution is for them to place a prior on the lexicon; they then update their posterior based on whatever utterances and contextual cues they observe, and in the mean time interpret each utterance by making their best guess, marginalizing out this uncertainty. This basic structure is captured in previous models of Bayesian word learning [10]. But when combined with the recursive pragmatic model, a new question arises: Given such a listener, what model should the speaker use? A rational speaker attempts to maximize the listener?s likelihood of understanding, so if an uncertain listener interpets by marginalizing over some posterior, then a fully knowledgeable speaker should disregard their own lexical knowledge, and instead model and marginalize over the listener?s uncertainty. But if they do this, then their utterances will provide no data about their lexicon, and there is nothing for the rational listener to learn from observing them.3 One final problem is that under this model, when agents switch roles between listener and speaker, there is nothing constraining them to continue using the same language. Optimizing task performance requires my lexicon as a speaker to match your lexicon as a listener and vice-versa, but there is nothing that relates my lexicon as a speaker to my lexicon as a listener, because these never interact. This clearly represents a dramatic mismatch to typical human communication, which almost never proceeds with distinct languages spoken by each participant. 2.2 A conventionality-based model of pragmatic word learning. We resolve the problems described above by assuming that speakers and listeners deviate from normative behavior by assuming a conventional lexicon. Specifically, our final convention-based agents assume: (a) There is some single, specific literal lexicon which everyone should be using, (b) and everyone else knows this lexicon, and believes that I know it as well, (c) but in fact I don?t. These assumptions instantiate a kind of ?social anxiety? in which agents are all trying to learn the correct lexicon that they assume everyone else knows. Assumption (a) corresponds to the lexicographer?s illusion: Naive language users will argue vociferously that words have specific meanings, even though these meanings are unobservable to everyone who purportedly uses them. It also explains why learners speak the language they hear (rather than some private language that they assume listeners will eventually learn): Under assumption (a), observing other speakers? behavior provides data about not just that speaker?s idiosyncratic lexicon, but the consensus lexicon. Assumption (b) avoids the explosion of hypern -distributions described above: If agent n knows the lexicon, they assume that all lower agents do as well, reducing to the original tractable model without uncertainty. And assumption (c) introduces a limited form of uncertainty at the top level, and thus the potential for learning. To the extent that a child?s interlocutors do use a stable lexicon and do not fully adapt their speech to accomodate the child?s limitations, these assumptions make a reasonable approximation for the child language learning case. In general, though, in arbitrary multi-turn interactions in which both agents have non-trivial uncertainty, these assumptions are incorrect, and thus induce complex and non-normative learning dynamics. Formally, let an unadorned L and S denote the listener and speaker who follow the above assumptions. If the lexicon were known then the listener would draw inferences as in Ln?1 above; but by assumption (c), they have uncertainty, which they marginalize out: Z PL (object|word, L?s data) = PLn?1 (object|word, lexicon)P (lexicon|L?s data) d(lexicon) (4) 3 Of course, in reality both parties will generally have some uncertainty, making the situation even worse. If we start from an uncertain listener with a prior over lexicons, then a first-level uncertain speaker needs a prior over priors on lexicons, a second-level uncertain listener needs a prior over priors over priors, etc. The original L0 ? S1 ? . . . recursion was bad enough, but at least each step had a constant cost. This new recursion produces hypern -distributions for which inference almost immediately becomes intractable even in principle, since the dimensionality of the learning problem increases with each step. Yet, without this addition of new uncertainty at each level, the model would dissolve back into certainty as in the previous paragraph, making learning impossible. 3 Phenomenon Ref. WL PI PI+U PI+WL Section Interpreting scalar implicature Interpreting Horn implicature Learning literal meanings despite scalar implicature Disambiguating new words using old words Learning new words using old words Disambiguation without learning Emergence of novel & efficient lexicons Lexicalization of Horn implicature [14] [15] [21] [22] [22] [16] [11] [15] x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.1 5.2 Table 1: Empirical results and references. WL refers to the word learning model of [10]; PI refers to the recursive pragmatic inference model of [9]; PI+U refers to the pragmatic inference model of [3] which includes lexical uncertainty, marginalizes it out, and then recurses. Our current model is referred to here as PI+WL, and combines pragmatic inference with word learning. Here L?s data consists of her previous experience with language. In particular in the iterated games explored here it consists of S?s previous utterances together with whatever other information L may have about their intended referents (e.g. from contextual clues). By assumption (b), L treats these utterances as samples from the knowledgeable speaker Sn?2 , not S, and thus as being informative about the lexicon. For instance, when the data is a set of fully observed word-referent pairs {wi , oi }: Y P (lexicon|L?s data) ? P (lexicon) PSn?2 (wi |oi , lexicon) (5) i The top-level speaker S attempts to select the word which soft-maximizes their utility, with utility now being defined in terms of the informativity of the expectation (over lexicons) that the listener will have for the right referent4 : PS (word|object, S?s data) ? (6) Z   exp ? log PLn?1 (object|word, lexicon)P (lexicon|S?s data) d(lexicon) ? cost(word) Here P (lexicon|S?s data) is defined similarly, when S observes L?s interpretations of various utterances, and treats them as samples from Ln?1 , not L. However, notice that if S and L have the same subjective distributions over lexicons, then S is approximately optimal with respect to L in the same sense that Sk is approximately optimal with respect to Lk?1 . In one-shot games, this model is conceptually equivalent to that of [3] restricted to n = 3; our key innovations are that we allow learning by replacing their P (lexicon) with P (lexicon|data), and provide a theoretical justification for how this learning can occur. In the remainder of the paper, we apply the model described above to a set of one-shot pragmatic inference games that have been well-studied in linguistics [14, 15] and are addressed by previous one-shot models of pragmatic inference [9, 3]. These situations set the stage for simulations investigating how learning proceeds in iterated versions of such games, described in the following section. Results captured by our model and previous models are summarized in Table 1. In our simulations throughout, we somewhat arbitrarily set the recursion depth n = 3 (the minimal value that produces all the qualitative phenomena), ? = 3, and assume that all agents have shared priors on the lexicon and full knowledge of the cost function. Inference is via importance sampling from a Dirichlet prior over lexicons. 3 Pragmatic inference in one-shot games 3.1 Scalar implicature. Many sets of words in natural language form scales in which each term makes a successively stronger claim. ?Some? and ?all? form a scale of this type. While ?I ate some 4 An alternative model would have the speaker take the expectation over informativity, instead of the informativity of the expectation, which would correspond to slightly different utility functions. We adopt the current formulation for consistency with [3]. 4 of the cookies? is compatible with the followup ?in fact, I ate all of the cookies,? the reverse is not true. ?Might? and ?must? are another example, as are ?OK,? ?good,? and ?excellent.? All of these scales allow for scalar implicatures [14]: the use of a less specific term pragmatically implies that the more specific term does not apply. So although ?I ate some of the cookies? could in principle be compatible with eating ALL of them, the listener is lead to believe that SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL is the likely state of affairs. The recursive pragmatic reasoning portions of our model capture findings on scalar implicature in the same manner as previous models [3, 13]. 3.2 Horn implicature. Consider a world which contains two words and two types of objects. One word is expensive to use, and one is cheap (call them ?expensive? and ?cheap? for short). One object type is common and one is rare; denote these COMMON and RARE. Intuitively, there are two possible communicative systems here: a good system where ?cheap? referes to COMMON and ?expensive? refers to RARE, and a bad system where the opposite holds. Obviously we would prefer to use the good system, but it has historically proven very difficult to derive this conclusion in a game theoretic setting, because both systems are stable equilibria: if our partner uses the bad system, then we would rather follow and communicate at some cost than switch to the good system and fail entirely [3]. Humans, however, unlike traditional game theoretic models, do make the inference that given two otherwise equivalent utterances, the costly utterance should have a rare or unusual meaning. We call this pattern Horn implicature, after [15]. For instance, ?Lee got the car to stop? implies that Lee used an unusual method (e.g. not the brakes) because, had he used the brakes, the speaker would have chosen the simpler and shorter (less costly) expression, ?Lee stopped the car? [15]. Surprisingly, Bergen et al. [3] show that the key to achieving this favorable result is ignorance. If a listener assigns equal probability to her partner using the good system or the bad system, then their best bet is to estimate PS (word|object) as the average of PS (word|object, good system) and PS (word|object, bad system). These might seem to cancel out, but in fact they do not. In the good system, the utilities of the speaker?s actions are relatively strongly separated compared to the bad system; therefore, a soft-max agent in the bad system has noiser behavior than in the good system, and the behavior in the good system dominates the average. Similar reasoning applies to an uncertain speaker. For example, in our model with a uniform prior over lexicons and Pprior (COMMON) = 0.8, cost(?cheap?) = 0.5, cost(?expensive?) = 1.0, the symmetry breaks in the appropriate way: Despite total ignorance about the conventional system, our modeled speakers prefer to use simple words for common referents (PS (?cheap?|COMMON) = 0.88, PS (?cheap?|RARE) = 0.46), and listeners show a similar bias (PL (COMMON|?cheap?) = 0.77, PL (COMMON|?expensive?) = 0.65). This preference is weak; the critical point is that it exists at all, given the unbiased priors. We return to this in ?5.2. [3] report a much stronger preference, which they accomplish by applying further layers of pragmatic recursion on top of these marginal distributions. On the one hand, this allows them to better fit their empirical data; on the other, it removes the possibility of learning the literal lexicon that underlies pragmatic inference ? further recursion above the uncertainty means that it is only hypothetical agents who are ignorant, while the actual speaker and listener have no uncertainty about each other?s generative process. 4 Pragmatics in learning from a knowledgable speaker 4.1 Learning literal meanings despite scalar implicatures. The acquisition of quantifiers like ?some? provides a puzzle for most models of word learning: given that in many contexts, the word ?some? is used to mean SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL, how do children learn that SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL is not in fact its literal meaning? Our model is able to take scalar implicatures into account when learning, and thus provide a potential solution, congruent with the observation that no known language in fact lexicalizes SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL [21]. Following the details of ?3.1, we created a simulation in which the model?s prior fixed the meaning of ?all? to be a particular set ALL, but was ambiguous about whether ?some? literally meant SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL (incorrect) or SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL OR ALL (correct). The model was then exposed to training situations in which ?some? was used to refer to SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL. Despite this training, the model maintained substantial posterior probability on the correct hypothesis about the meaning of ?some.? Essentially, the model reasoned that although it had unambiguous evidence for ?some? being used to refer to SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL, this was nonetheless consistent with a literal meaning of SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL OR ALL which had then been pragmatically strengthened. 5 P(L understands S) 1.0 Run 1 0.5 0.0 Run 2 1 Run 1 2 2 words, 2 objects 3 4 5 6 7 Dialogue turn Run 1 8 9 10 1 2 Run 1 Run 2 3 4 5 3 words, 3 objects 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Dialogue turn Run 2 words Run 2 objects Figure 1: Simulations of two pragmatic agents playing a naming game. Each panel shows two representative simulation runs, with run 1 chosen to show strong convergence and run 2 chosen to show relatively weaker convergence. At each stage, S and L have different, possibly contradictory posteriors over the conventional, consensus lexicon. From these posteriors we derive the probability P (L understands S) (marginalizing over target objects and word choices), and also depict graphically S?s model of the listener (top row), and L?s actual model (bottom row). Thus, a pragmatically-informed learner might be able to maintain the true meaning of SOME despite seemingly conflicting evidence. 4.2 Disambiguation using known words. Children, when presented with both a novel and a familiar object (e.g. an eggbeater and a ball), will treat a novel label (e.g. ?dax?) as referring to the novel object, for example by supplying the eggbeater when asked to ?give me the dax? [22]. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as ?mutual exclusivity.? Simple probabilistic word learning models can produce a similar pattern of findings [10], but all such models assume that learners retain the mapping between novel word and novel object demonstrated in the experimental situation. This observation is contradicted, however, by evidence that children often do not retain the mappings that are demonstrated by their inferences in the moment [16]. Our model provides an intriguing possible explanation of this finding: when simulating a single disambiguation situation, the model gives a substantial probability (e.g. 75%) that the speaker is referring to the novel object. Nevertheless, this inference is not accompanied by an increased belief that the novel word literally refers to this object. The learner?s interpretation arises not from lexical mapping but instead from a variant of scalar implicature: the listener knows that the familiar word does not refer to the novel object?hence the novel word will be the best way to refer to the novel object, even if it literally could refer to either. Nevertheless, on repeated exposure to the same novel word, novel object situation, the learner does learn the mapping as part of the lexicon (congruent with other data on repeated training on disambiguation situations [4]). 5 Pragmatic reasoning in the absence of conventional meanings 5.1 Emergence of efficient communicative conventions. Experimental results suggest that communicators who start without a usable communication system are able to establish novel, consensusbased systems. For example, adults playing a communication game using only novel symbols with no conventional meaning will typically converge on a set of new conventions which allow them to accomplish their task [11]. Or in a less extreme example, communicators asked to refer to novel objects invent conventional names for them over the course of repeated interactions (e.g., ?the ice skater? for an abstract figure vaguely resembling an ice skater, [7]). From a pure learning perspective this behavior is anomalous, however: Since both agents know perfectly well that there is no existing convention to discover, there is nothing to learn from the other?s behavior. Furthermore, even if only one partner is producing the novel expressions, their behavior in these studies still becomes more regular (conventional) over time, which would seem to rule out a role for learning?even if there is some pattern in the expressions the speaker chooses to use, there is certainly nothing for the speaker to learn by observing these patterns, and thus their behavior should not change over time. 6 P(L understands S) Run 1 1.0 Run 2 0.5 0.0 1 2 Run 1 3 Dialogue turn 4 5 6 7 8 9 Figure 2: Example simulations showing the lexicalization of Horn implicatures. Plotting conventions are as above. In the first run, speaker and listener converge on a sparse and efficient communicative equilibrium, in which ?cheap? means COMMON and ?expensive? means RARE, while in the second they reach a sub-optimal equilibrium. As shown in Fig. 3, the former is more typical. 10 words Run 2 objects 1.0 Horn lexicalization rate Mean P(L understands S) 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2x2 uniform prior 3x3 uniform prior Horn implicature 0.2 0.0 Good lexicon Bad lexicon 0.8 0.8 0 10 20 30 Dialogue turn 40 0.2 0.0 0 10 20 30 Dialogue turn 40 Figure 3: Averaged behavior over 300 dialogues as in Figs. 1 and 2. Left: Communicative success by game type and dialogue turn. Right: Proportion of dyads in the Horn implicature game (?5.2) who have converged on the ?good? or ?bad? lexicons and believe that these are literal meanings. To model such phenomena, we imagine two agents playing the simple referential game introduced in ? 2. On each turn the speaker is assigned a target object, utters some word referring to this object, the listener makes a guess at the object, and then, critically, the speaker observes the listener?s guess and the listener receives feedback indicating the correct answer (i.e., the speaker?s intended referent). Both agents then update their posterior over lexicons before proceeding to the next trial. As in [19, 7], the speaker and listener remain fixed in the same role throughout. Fig. 1 shows the result of simulating several such games when both parties begin with a uniform prior over lexicons. Notice that: (a) agents? performance begins at chance, but quickly rises ? a communicative system emerges where none previously existed; (b) they tend towards structured, sparse lexicons with a one-to-one correspondence between objects and words ? these communicative systems are biased towards being useful and efficient; and (c) as the speaker and listener have entirely different data (the listener?s interpretations and the speaker?s intended referent, respectively), unlucky early guesses can lead them to believe in entirely contradictory lexicons?but they generally recover and converge. Each agent effectively uses their partner?s behavior as a basis for forming weak beliefs about the underlying lexicon that they assume must exist. Since they then each act on these beliefs, and their partner uses the resulting actions to form new beliefs, they soon converge on using similar lexicons, and what started as a ?superstition? becomes normatively correct. And unlike some previous models of emergence across multiple generations of agents [18, 25], this occurs within individual agents in a single dialogue. 5.2 Lexicalization and loss of Horn implicatures. A stronger example of how pragmatics can create biases in emerging lexicons can be observed by considering a version of this game played in the ?cheap?/?expensive?/COMMON/RARE domain introduced in our discussion of Horn implicature (?3.2). Here, a uniform prior over lexicons, combined with pragmatic reasoning, causes each agent to start out weakly biased towards the associations ?cheap? ? COMMON, ?expensive? ? RARE. A fully rational listener who observed an uncertain speaker using words in this manner would therefore discount it as arising from this bias, and conclude that the speaker was, in fact, highly uncertain. Our convention-based listener, however, believes that speakers do know which convention is in use, and therefore tends to misinterpret this biased behavior as positive evidence that the ?good? system is in use. Similarly, convention-based speakers will wager that since on average they will succeed more often if listeners are using the ?good? system, they might as well try it. When they succeed, they take their success as evidence that the listener was in fact using the good system all along. As a result, dyads in this game end up converging onto a stable system at a rate far above chance, and 7 preferentially onto the ?good? system (Figs. 2 and 3). In the process, though, something interesting happens. In this model, Horn implicatures depend on uncertainty about literal meaning. As the agents gather more data, their uncertainty is reduced, and thus through the course of a dialogue, the implicature is replaced by a belief that ?cheap? literally means COMMON (and did all along). To demonstrate this phenomenon, we queried each agent in each simulated dyad about how they would refer to or interpret each object and word, if the two objects were equally common, which cancels the Horn implicature. As shown in Fig. 3 (right), after 30 turns, in nearly 70% of dyads both S and L used the ?good? mapping even in this implicature-free case, while less than 20% used the ?bad? mapping (with the rest being inconsistent). This points to a fundamental difference in how learning interacts with Horn versus scalar implicatures. Depending on the details of the input, it is possible for our convention-based agents to observe pragmatically strengthened uses of scalar terms (e.g., ?some? used to refer to SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL), without becoming confused into thinking that ?some? literally means SOME - BUT- NOT- ALL (?4.1). This occurs because scalar implicature depends only on recursive pragmatic reasoning (?2.1), which our convention-based agents? learning rules are able to model and correct for. But, while our agents are able to use Horn implicatures in their own behaviour (? 3.2), this happens implicitly as a result of their uncertainty, and our agents do not model the uncertainty of other agents; thus, when they observe other agents using Horn implicatures, they cannot interpret this behavior as arising from an implicature. Instead, they take it as reflecting the actual literal meaning. And this result isn?t just a technical limitation of our implementation, but is intrinsic to our convention-based approach to combining pragmatics and learning: in our system, the only thing that makes word learning possible at all is each agent?s assumption that other agents are better informed; otherwise, other agents? behavior would not provide any useful data for learning. Our model therefore makes the interesting prediction that all else being equal, uncertainty-based implicatures should over time be more prone to lexicalizing and becoming part of literal meaning than recursion-based implicatures are. 6 Conclusion Language learners and language users must consider word meanings both within and across contexts. A critical part of this process is reasoning pragmatically about agents? goals in individual situations. In the current work we treat agents communicating with one another as assuming that there is a shared conventional lexicon which they both rely on, but with differing degrees of knowledge. They then reason recursively about how this lexicon should be used to convey particular meanings in context. These assumptions allow us to create a model that unifies two previously separate strands of modeling work on language usage and acquisition and account for a variety of new phenomena. In particular, we consider new explanations of disambiguation in early word learning and the acquisition of quantifiers, and demonstrate that our model is capable of developing novel and efficient communicative systems through iterated learning within the context of a single simulated conversation. Our assumptions produce a tractable model, but because they deviate from pure rationality, they must introduce biases, of which we identify two: a tendency for pragmatic speakers and listeners to accentuate useful, sparse patterns in their communicative systems (?5.1), and for short, ?low cost? expressions to be assigned to common objects (?5.2). Strikingly, both of these biases systematically drive the overall communicative system towards greater global efficiency. In the long term, these processes should leave their mark on the structure of the language itself, which may contribute to explaining how languages become optimized for effective communication [26, 24]. More generally, understanding the interaction between pragmatics and learning is a precondition to developing a unified understanding of human language. Our work here takes a first step towards joining disparate strands of research that have treated language acquisition and language use as distinct. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the European Commission through the EU Cognitive Systems Project Xperience (FP7-ICT-270273), the John S. McDonnell Foundation, and ONR grant N000141310287. 8 References [1] D.A. Baldwin. Early referential understanding: Infants? ability to recognize referential acts for what they are. Developmental Psychology, 29(5):832?843, 1993. [2] D. Barner, N. Brooks, and A. Bale. Accessing the unsaid: The role of scalar alternatives in childrens pragmatic inference. Cognition, 118(1):84, 2011. [3] L. Bergen, N. D. Goodman, and R. Levy. That?s what she (could have) said: How alternative utterances affect language use. In Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 2012. [4] R.A.H. Bion, A. Borovsky, and A. Fernald. Fast mapping, slow learning: Disambiguation of novel word? object mappings in relation to vocabulary learning at 18, 24, and 30months. Cognition, 2012. [5] C. F. Camerer, T.-H. Ho, and J.-K. Chong. A cognitive hierarchy model of games. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(3):861?898, 2004. [6] E.V. Clark. On the logic of contrast. Journal of Child Language, 15:317?335, 1988. [7] Herbert H Clark and Deanna Wilkes-Gibbs. Referring as a collaborative process. Cognition, 22(1):1?39, 1986. [8] R. Dale and E. Reiter. Computational interpretations of the gricean maxims in the generation of referring expressions. Cognitive Science, 19(2):233?263, 1995. [9] M. C. Frank and N. D. Goodman. Predicting pragmatic reasoning in language games. Science, 336(6084):998?998, 2012. [10] M. C. Frank, N. D. Goodman, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Using speakers? referential intentions to model early cross-situational word learning. Psychological Science, 20:578?585, 2009. [11] B. Galantucci. An experimental study of the emergence of human communication systems. Cognitive science, 29(5):737?767, 2005. [12] D. Golland, P. Liang, and D. Klein. A game-theoretic approach to generating spatial descriptions. In Proceedings of EMNLP 2010, pages 410?419. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2010. [13] Noah D. Goodman and Andreas Stuhlm?uller. Knowledge and implicature: Modeling language understanding as social cognition. Topics in Cognitive Science, 5:173?184, 2013. [14] H.P. Grice. Logic and conversation. Syntax and Semantics, 3:41?58, 1975. [15] L. Horn. Toward a new taxonomy for pragmatic inference: Q-based and r-based implicature. In Meaning, form, and use in context, volume 42. Washington: Georgetown University Press, 1984. [16] J. S. Horst and L. K. Samuelson. Fast mapping but poor retention by 24-month-old infants. Infancy, 13(2):128?157, 2008. [17] G. Kachergis, C. Yu, and R. M. Shiffrin. An associative model of adaptive inference for learning word? referent mappings. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 19(2):317?324, April 2012. [18] S. Kirby, H. Cornish, and K. Smith. Cumulative cultural evolution in the laboratory: An experimental approach to the origins of structure in human language. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(31):10681?10686, 2008. [19] R. M. Krauss and S. Weinheimer. Changes in reference phrases as a function of frequency of usage in social interaction: A preliminary study. Psychonomic Science, 1964. [20] T. Kwiatkowski, S. Goldwater, L. Zettlemoyer, and M. Steedman. A probabilistic model of syntactic and semantic acquisition from child-directed utterances and their meanings. In Proceedings of the 13th Conference of the European Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 234?244, 2012. [21] S.C. Levinson. Presumptive meanings: The theory of generalized conversational implicature. MIT Press, 2000. [22] E. M. Markman and G. F. Wachtel. Children?s use of mutual exclusivity to constrain the meanings of words. Cognitive Psychology, 20:121?157, 1988. [23] A. Papafragou and J. Musolino. Scalar implicatures: Experiments at the semantics-pragmatics interface. Cognition, 86(3):253?282, 2003. [24] S. T. Piantadosi, H. Tily, and E. Gibson. Word lengths are optimized for efficient communication. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(9):3526 ?3529, 2011. [25] R. van Rooy. Evolution of conventional meaning and conversational principles. Synthese, 139(2):331? 366, 2004. [26] G. Zipf. The Psychobiology of Language. Routledge, London, 1936. 9
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Some Approximation Properties of Projection Pursuit Learning Networks Ying Zhao Christopher G. Atkeson The Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 Abstract This paper will address an important question in machine learning: What kind of network architectures work better on what kind of problems? A projection pursuit learning network has a very similar structure to a one hidden layer sigmoidal neural network. A general method based on a continuous version of projection pursuit regression is developed to show that projection pursuit regression works better on angular smooth functions than on Laplacian smooth functions. There exists a ridge function approximation scheme to avoid the curse of dimensionality for approximating functions in L 2(?d). 1 INTRODUCTION Projection pursuit is a nonparametric statistical technique to find "interesting" low dimensional projections of high dimensional data sets. It has been used for nonparametric fitting and other data-analytic purposes (Friedman and Stuetzle, 1981, Huber, 1985). Approximation properties have been studied by Diaconis & Shahshahani (1984) and Donoho & Johnstone (1989). It was first introduced into the context of learning networks by Barron & Barron (1988). A one hidden layer sigmoidal feedforward neural network approximates f(x.) using the structure (Figure l(a)): n g(x.) = 'E a:jlT(pj 9J x. + llj) j=l 936 (1) Some Approximation Properties of Projection Pursuit Learning Networks (a) (b) Figure 1: (a) A One Hidden Layer Feedforward Neural Network. (b) A Projection Pursuit Learning Network. = iT is a sigmoidal function. 8; are direction parameters with 118;11 I, and 6; are function parameters. A projection pursuit learning network based on projection pursuit regression (PPR) (Friedman and Stuetzle, 1981) or a ridge function approximation scheme (RA) has a very similar structure (Figure l(b?. where oj! P;, g(x) " = Lg;(8Jx) (2) ;=1 = where 8; are also direction parameters with 118;11 1. The corresponding function parameters are ridge functions 9; which are any smooth function to be learned from the data. Since iT is replaced by a more general smooth function gj, projection pursuit learning networks can be viewed as a generalization of one hidden layer sigmoidal feedforward neural networks. This paper will discuss some approximation properties of PPR: 1. Projection pursuit learning networks work better on angular smooth functions than on Laplacian smooth functions. Here "work better" means that for fixed complexities of hidden unit functions and a certain accuracy, fewer hidden units are required. For the two dimensional case (d = 2), Donoho and Johnstone (1989) show this result using equispaced directions. The equispaced directions may not be available when d > 2. We use a set of directions generated from zeros of orthogonal polynomials and uniformly distributed directions on an unit sphere instead. The analysis method in D "J's paper is limited to two dimensions. We apply the theory of spherical harmonics (Muller, 1966) to develop a continuous ridge function representation of any arbitray smooth functions and then employ different numerical integration sehemes to discretize it for eases when d> 2. 2. The curse of dimensionality can be avoided when a proper ridge function approximation is applied. Once a continuous ridge function representation is established for any function in L 2(4)41), a Monte Carlo type of integration scheme can be applied which has a RMS error convergence rate O(N-i) where N is the number of ridge functions in the linear combinations. This is a similar result to Barron's result (Barron, 1991) except that we have less restrictions on the underlying function class. 937 938 Zhao and Atkeson (b) (a) Figule 2: (a> A radial basil element 2 1014' (b) a harmonic basis element 1110. SMOOTHNESS CLASSES AND A L'( tPd) BASIS We use L2(4),.) u our underlying function space with Gaussian meuure 4>4 = II (2~)ye- I~IJ JR. . 11/112 = P4>4dx. The smoothness classes characterise the rates of convergence. Let A4 be the Laplacian operator and A4 be the Laplacian-Beltrami operator (Muller, 1966). The smoothness classes can be defined u: 1 E L2(4)4) will be .aid to have Cartuian .moo#Jane.. 01 order p i/ it hal p derivativu and thue derivativu are all in L2(<1>4) , It will be .aid to have angular .moo#Jane.. 0/ order q i/ A~f 1 E L 2(<1>4) ' It will be .aid to have Laplacian .moo#Jane.. 0/ order 7' i/ A41 E L 2(4)4)' Let;:, be the cia .. 0/ function. with Cartuian .moothneu P, A,f be #Jae cia.. 01 function. with Cartuian .moothne.. p and angular .moo#Jane.. q and c,~ be the cla.. 0/ function. with Cartuian .moothne.. p and Laplacian .moo#Jane.. 7', Definition 1 The function We derive an orthogonal basis in L2(<1>4) from the eigenfunctions of a self-adjoint operator, The basis element is defined as: (3) = = = where x = 7'e, n 0, ",,00, m = 0, "" 00, j I, "" N(d, n),1'm = (_2)mm!, (t n + 422. S"i(e) are linearly independent spherical harmonies of degree n in d dimensions (Muller, 1966), L!C;) is a Laguerre polynomial. The advantage of the basis comes from its representation u a product of a spherical harmonic and a radial polynomial. Specifically JOjm is a radial polynomial for n 0 and J"jO is a harmonic polynomial for m = O. Figure 2(a),(b) show a radial buis element and a harmonic basis element when n + 2m 8. The basis element J"jm has an orthogonality: = = where E denotes expectation with respect to <1>4' Since it is a basis in L2 (<1>4), any function / E L2(<1>4) hu an expansion in terms of basis elements J"jm 1= L ~imJ";m ".j,m (5) Some Approximation Properties of Projection Pursuit Learning Networks '* The circular harmonic einB is a special case of the spherical harmonic Snj (e). In two dimensions, d = 2, N(d,n) = 2 and x = (rcos8,rsin8). The spherical harmonic Snj(e) can be reduced to the following: Snl(e) = cos n8, Sn2(e) = sin n8, which is the circular harmonic. 7: Smoothness classes can also be defined qualitatively from expansions of functions in terms of basis elements Jnjm. Since 111112 = 2:c!jmJ~jm' one can think of Pnjm(J) = E!i .,.J!i'; i.,.J ..;... 2 c .. as representing the distribution of energy in 1 among the different modes of oscillation J njm . If 1 is cartesian smooth, Pnjm(J) peaks around small n + 2m. If 1 is angular smooth, Pnjm (J) peaks around small n. If 1 is Laplacian smooth, Pnjm (I) peaks around small m. To explain why PPR works better on angular smooth functions than on Laplacian smooth functions, we first examine how to represent these L 2(?d) basis elements systematically in terms of ridge functions and then use the expansion (5) to derive a error bound of RA for general smooth functions. 3 CONTINUOUS RIDGE FUNCTION SCHEMES There exists a continuous ridge function representation for any function I(x) E L 2 (?d) which is an integral of ridge functions through all possible directions. I(x) = 1 g(xT TJ, TJ)dwd(TJ)? (6) n~ This works intuitively because any object is determined by any infinite set of radiographs. More precisely, any function I(x) E L 2 (?d) can be approximated arbitrarily well by a linear combination of ridge functions 2:k g(xT TJk, TJk) provided infinitely many combination units (Jones, 1987). As k --+ 00, we have (6). The natural discrete approximation to (6) has the form: In(x) = 2:'1=1 Wjg(xTTJj,TJj), which becomes the usual PPR (2). We proved a continuous ridge function representation of basis elements Jnjm which is shown in Lemma 1. Lenuna 1 The continuou6 ridge function repre6entation of Jnjm i6: Jnjm(x) = Anmd 1 Hn+2m (TJ T x)Snj(TJ)dWd(TJ) (7) n~ where Anmd i6 a con6tant and H n +2m (:l) i6 a Hermite polynomial. Therefore any function 1 E L 2 (?d) has a continuous ridge function representation (6) with g(xT TJ,7J) = C njm Anmd Hn+2m(XT 7J)Snj(7J) (8) Gaussian quadrature and Monte Carlo integration schemes can be used to discretize L (6). 4 GAUSSIAN QUADRATURE Since Jn~ g(xT TJ, TJ)dwd(TJ) = Jn~_1 J~l g(xT TJ, TJ)(1 - t~_d ~;3 dtd_ldwd_l (TJd-d, simple product rules using Gaussian quadrature formulae can be used here. tij, i = 939 940 Zhao and Atkeson (a) (b) Figure 3: Directions (a) for a radial polynomial (b) for a hatmonic polynomial = d -1, ... , 1, j 1, ... , ft are lerGI of orthogonal polynomials with weight. (1 - t 2 )?. N ,,4-1 points on the unit .phere {}4 can be formed using tii through = "/1- tLI 00. y1-if [ tLI? .. tl ,,= Jl- 1 (9) t4_1 r ", ,,) If g( is a polynomial of degree at mo.t 2" - 1 (in term. of t 1 , ... , t4- il, then N = ,,4-1 point! (direction.) ate .ufficient to represent the integral exactly. This can be demonstrated with two eX&lllples by taking d = 3. Example 1: a radial function 24 d + 114 + %4 + 222112 + 222%2 + 2112%2 =Cl I = 3." = 3. nomial with tl In. (x T ,,)4dw a ('1) (10) ,,2 = 9 direction. from (9) are sufficient to represent this poly- = 0, /i, -/i (Ieros of a degree 3 Legendre polynomial) and = 0, llj. -~ ( .eros of a degree 3 Tschebyscheff polynomial). More directions ate needed to represent a hatmonic function with exactly the same number of ternu of monomials but with different coefficient?. tl EX&IIlpie 2: a hat monic function i(82 4 + 3114 + 3%4 - 2422112 - 2422%2 + 6~%2) = C2 L. (r,,)4S. i (,,)dw a(,,) (11) ,,= where S4/(") = i(35t4 - 30t l + 3)." = t?a + v'f=1J'h' 5, ,,2 = 25 direction. from (9) ate sufficient to represent the polynomial with t2 = 0,0.90618, -0.90618, 0.53847, -0.53847 and tl = COl 2{;1 ~,j = I, ... , 5. The distribution of these directioDJ on a unit .phere ate shown in Figure 3(a) and (b). In general, N = (ft + m + 1)4-1 direction. ate sufficient to represent J"im exactly by using leros of orthogonal polynomial.. If p ,,+ 2m (the degree of the basis) i. fixed, N (p - m + 1)4-1 = (~ + 1)4-1 is minimiled when" 0 which corresponds to the radial basis element. N is maximiled when m = 0 which is the hat monic element. Using definition. of .moothnes. dassel in Section 2. We can show that ridge function approximation works better on angular smooth functions. The basic result i. as follow.: = = = Some Approximation Properties of Projection Pursuit Learning Networks Theorem l i E .A"f' let RN 1 denote a .um 01 ridge Junction. which belt approzimate f by tI.ing a .et of direction. generated by zero. of orthogonal polynomial?. Then (12) This error bound says that ridge function approximation does take advantage of angular smoothness. Radial functions are the most angular smooth functions with q = +00 and harmonic functions are the least angular smooth functions when the Cartesian smoothness p is fixed. Therefore ridge function approximation works better on angular smooth functions than on Laplacian smooth functions. Radial and harmonic functions are the two extreme cases. 5 UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED DIRECTIONS ON nd Instead of using directions from zeros of orthogonal polynomials, N uniformly distributed directions on nd is an alternative to generalizing equispaced directions. This is a Monte Carlo type of integration scheme on Oct. To approximate the integral (7), N uniformly distributed directions 1/1, 112, ...... , TJN on nd drawn from the density I(TJ) = l/wct on Od are used: N Jnjm(x) = ';; Anmd L Hn+2m (XTTJIe)Snj(TJIe) (13) Ie=l (14) The variance is u 2 (x) u1(x) = - - (15) N u2 (x) = In. [AnmdWdHn+2m(XTTJ)Snj(TJ) - Jnjm(X)] 2 ..,l.dwd(TJ). Therefore Jnjm(X) approximates Jnjm(x) with a rate u(x)/VN. The difference between a radial basis and a harmonic basis is u(x). Let us average u(x) with respect to ?d: where Ilu(x)112 = = IIJnjmll 2 [ri~~;~:d 1) - 1] = IIJnjmll 2anjm For a fixed n + 2m p, Ilu(x)112 is minimized at n maximized at m 0 (a harmonic element). = =0 The same justification can be done for a general function (8). A RA scheme is: (16) (a radial element) and 1 E L2( ?d) with (6) and 941 942 Zhao and Atkeson mN(x) = I(x), O';;(x) = (T2kX) , 0'2(x) = fOil wdg 2(xT TJ, TJ)dwct(TJ) - 12(x) and 110'(x)1I2 = L c!jmIIJnjmWanjm' Since anjm is small when n is small, large when m is small and recall the distribution Pnjm(J) in Section 3, 110'11 2/11/112 is small when I is smooth. Among these smooth functions, if I is angular smooth, 110'11 2/11/112 is smaller than that if I is Laplacian smooth. The RMS error convergence rate IIli",1I = ,,)I~J:v is consequently smaller for I being angular smooth than for I being Laplacian smooth. But both rates are D( N-i) no matter what class the underlying fundion belongs to. The difference is the constant which is related to the distribution of energy in I among the different modes of oscillations (angular or Laplacian). The radial and harmonic functions are two extremes. 6 THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY IN RA Generally, if N directions TJ1, 1/2, ...... , TJN, on Od drawn from any distribution p(TJ) on the sphere Od to approximate (6) I(x) = ~ t 9(XTTJ1c ,TJ1c? N 1c=1 p( TJ1c) mN = lex) IT;; = C;; where (17) 0'2(x) = fOil p(~)g2(xTTJ,TJ)dwd(TJ) - 12(x). 111T(x)112 = I _(1) IIgl1I1 2dwd(TJ) -11/11 2 = lOll P TJ c/ And (18) Then (19) That is, I(x) --+ lex) with a rate D(N-~). Equation (19) shows that there is no curse of dimensionality if a ridge function approximation scheme (17) is used for lex). The same conclusion can be drawn when sigmoidal hidden unit function neural networks are applied to Barron's class of underlying function (Barron, 1991). But our function class here is the function class that can be represented by a continuous ridge function (6), which is a much larger function class than Barron's. Any function I E L 2 (?d) has a representation (6)(Section 4). Therefore, for any function I E L2( ?d), there exists a node function g(xT TJ, TJ) and related ridge function approximation scheme (17) to approximate lex) with a rate D(N-i), which has no curse of dimensionality. In other words, if we are allowed to choose a node function g(xT TJ, TJ) according to the property of data, which is the characteristic ofPPR, then ridge function approximation scheme can avoid the curse of dimensionality. That is a generalization of Barron's result that the curse of dimensionality goes away if certain types of node function (e.g., CO$ and 0') are considered. The smoothness of a underlying function determines the size of the constant Ct. As shown in the previous section, ifp(TJ) = l/wd (i.e., uniformly distributed directions), then angular smooth functions have smaller c/ than Laplacian smooth functions do. Choosing different p( TJ) does not change this conclusion. But a properly chosen p( TJ) reduces in general. If I(x) is smooth enough, the node function g(xT TJ, TJ) can be c, Some Approximation Properties of Projection Pursuit Learning Networks computed from the Radon transform R"f of f in the direction as 1] which is defined (20) = and we proved: g(xT1],1]) F-1(Fl1(t)ltld-1) It=X'l'l1, where Fl1(t) is the Fourier transform of R"f(') and F- 1 denotes the inverse Fourier transform. In practice, learning g(xT 11,11) is usually replaced by a smoothing step which seeks a one dimensional function to fit x T 1] best to the residual in this direction (Friedman and Stuetzle, 1981, Zhao and Atkeson, 1991). 7 CONCLUSION As we showed, PPR works better on angular smooth function than on Laplacian smooth functions by discretizing a continuous ridge function representation. PPR can avoid the curse of dimensionality by learning node functions from data. Acknowledgments Support was provided under Air Force Office of Scientific Research grant AFOSR89-0500. Support for CGA was provided by a National Science Foundation Presidential Young Investigator Award, an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, and the W. M. Keck Foundation Associate Professorship in Biomedical Engineering. Special thanks goes to Prof. Zhengfang Zhou and Prof. Peter Huber at Math Dept. in MIT, who provided useful discussions. References Barron, A. R. and Barron, R. L. (1988) "Statistical Learning Networks: A Unifying View." Computing Science and Stati6tic6: Proceeding6 of 20th Symp06ium on the Interface. Ed Wegman, editor, Amer. Statist. Assoc., Washington, D. C., 192-203. Barron, A. R. (1991) "Universal Approximation Bounds for Superpositions of A Sigmoidal Function". TR. 58. Dept. of Stat., Univ. of nlinois at UrbanaChampaign. Donoho, D. L. and Johnstone, I. (1989). "Projection-based Approximation, and Duality with Kernel Methods". Ann. Statid., 17, 58-106. Diaconis, P. and Shahshahani, M. (1984) "On Non-linear Functions of Linear Combinations", SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Compt. 5, 175-191. Friedman, J. H. and Stuetzle, W. (1981) "Projection Pursuit Regression". J. Amer. Stat. Auoc., 76, 817-823. Huber, P. J. (1985) "Projection Pursuit (with discussion)", Ann. Stati6t., 19, 495-4 75. Jones, L. (1987) "On A Conjecture of Huber Concerning the Convergence of Projection Pursuit Regression". Ann. Statid., 15, 880-882. Muller, C. (1966), Spherical Harmonic,. Lecture Notes in Mathematics, no.17. Zhao, Y. and C. G. Atkeson (1991) "Projection Pursuit Learning", Proc. IJCNN-91-SEATTLE. 943
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Model Selection for High-Dimensional Regression under the Generalized Irrepresentability Condition Andrea Montanari Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 [email protected] Adel Javanmard Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 [email protected] Abstract In the high-dimensional regression model a response variable is linearly related to p covariates, but the sample size n is smaller than p. We assume that only a small subset of covariates is ?active? (i.e., the corresponding coefficients are non-zero), and consider the model-selection problem of identifying the active covariates. A popular approach is to estimate the regression coefficients through the Lasso (`1 -regularized least squares). This is known to correctly identify the active set only if the irrelevant covariates are roughly orthogonal to the relevant ones, as quantified through the so called ?irrepresentability? condition. In this paper we study the ?Gauss-Lasso? selector, a simple two-stage method that first solves the Lasso, and then performs ordinary least squares restricted to the Lasso active set. We formulate ?generalized irrepresentability condition? (GIC), an assumption that is substantially weaker than irrepresentability. We prove that, under GIC, the Gauss-Lasso correctly recovers the active set. 1 Introduction In linear regression, we wish to estimate an unknown but fixed vector of parameters ?0 ? Rp from n pairs (Y1 , X1 ), (Y2 , X2 ), . . . , (Yn , Xn ), with vectors Xi taking values in Rp and response variables Yi given by Wi ? N(0, ? 2 ) , Yi = h?0 , Xi i + Wi , (1) where h ? , ? i is the standard scalar product. In matrix form, letting Y = (Y1 , . . . , Yn )T and denoting by X the design matrix with rows X1T , . . . , XnT , we have Y = X ?0 + W , W ? N(0, ? 2 In?n ) . (2) In this paper, we consider the high-dimensional setting in which the number of parameters exceeds the sample size, i.e., p > n, but the number of non-zero entries of ?0 is smaller than p. We denote by S ? supp(?0 ) ? [p] the support of ?0 , and let s0 ? |S|. We are interested in the ?model selection? problem, namely in the problem of identifying S from data Y , X. In words, there exists a ?true? low dimensional linear model that explains the data. We want to identify the set S of covariates that are ?active? within this model. This problem has motivated a large body of research, because of its relevance to several modern data analysis tasks, ranging from signal processing [9, 5] to genomics [15, 16]. A crucial step forward has been the development of model-selection techniques based on convex optimization formulations [17, 8, 6]. These formulations have lead to computationally efficient algorithms that can be applied to large scale problems. Such developments pose the following theoretical question: For which vectors ?0 , designs X, and 1 noise levels ?, the support S can be identified, with high probability, through computationally efficient procedures? The same question can be asked for random designs X and, in this case, ?high probability? will refer both to the noise realization W , and to the design realization X. In the rest of this introduction we shall focus ?for the sake of simplicity? on the deterministic settings, and refer to Section 3 for a treatment of Gaussian random designs. The analysis of computationally efficient methods has largely focused on `1 -regularized least squares, a.k.a. the Lasso [17]. The Lasso estimator is defined by n 1 o ?bn (Y, X; ?) ? arg minp kY ? X?k22 + ?k?k1 . (3) ??R 2n In case the right hand side has more than one minimizer, one of them can be selected arbitrarily for our purposes. It is worth noting that when columns of X are in general positions (e.g. when the entries of X are drawn form a continuous probability distribution), the Lasso solution is unique [18]. We will often omit the arguments Y , X, as they are clear from the context. (A closely related method is the so-called Dantzig selector [6]: it would be interesting to explore whether our results can be generalized to that approach.) It was understood early on that, even in the large-sample, low-dimensional limit n ? ? at p constant, supp(?bn ) 6= S unless the columns of X with index in S are roughly orthogonal to the ones with index outside S [12]. This assumption is formalized by the so-called ?irrepresentability b = (XT X/n). Letting condition?, that can be stated in terms of the empirical covariance matrix ? b b ?A,B be the submatrix (?i,j )i?A,j?B , irrepresentability requires b S c ,S ? b ?1 sign(?0,S )k? ? 1 ? ? , k? S,S (4) for some ? > 0 (here sign(u)i = +1, 0, ?1 if, respectively, ui > 0, = 0, < 0). In an early breakthrough, Zhao and Yu [23] proved that, if this condition holds with ? uniformly bounded away from 0, it guarantees correct model selection also in the high-dimensional regime p  n. Meinshausen and B?ulmann [14] independently established the same result for random Gaussian designs, with applications to learning Gaussian graphical models. These papers applied to very sparse models, requiring in particular s0 = O(nc ), c < 1, and parameter vectors with large coefficients. Namely, p scalb ing the columns of X such that ?i,i ? 1, for i ? [p], they require ?min ? mini?S |?0,i | ? c s0 /n. Wainwright [21] strengthened considerably these results by allowing for general scalings of s0 , p, n and proving that much smaller non-zero coefficients can be detected. Namely, he proved that for a p broad class of empirical covariances it is only necessary that ?min ? c? (log p)/n. This scaling of the minimum non-zero entry is optimal up to constants. Also, for a specific classes of random Gaussian designs (including X with i.i.d. standard Gaussian entries), the analysis of [21] provides tight bounds on the minimum sample size for correct model selection. Namely, there exists c` , cu > 0 such that the Lasso fails with high probability if n < c` s0 log p and succeeds with high probability if n ? cu s0 log p. While, thanks to these recent works [23, 14, 21], we understand reasonably well model selection via the Lasso, it is fundamentally unknown what model-selection performances can be achieved with general computationally practical methods. Two aspects of of the above theory cannot be ? improved substantially: (i) The non-zero entries must satisfy the condition ?min ? c?/ n to be detected with ? high probability. Even if n = p and the ? measurement directions Xi are orthogonal, e.g., X = nIn?n , one would need |?0,i | ? c?/ n to distinguish the i-th entry from noise. For instance, in [10], the authors prove a general upper bound on the minimax power of tests for hypotheses H0,i = {?0,i = 0}. Specializing this bound to the case of standard Gaussian designs, the analysis of [10] shows ? formally that no test can detect ?0,i 6= 0, with a fixed degree of confidence, unless |?0,i | ? c?/ n. (ii) The sample size must satisfy n ? s0 . Indeed, if this is not the case, for each ?0 with support of size |S| = s0 , there is a one parameter family {?0 (t) = ?0 + t v}t?R with supp(?0 (t)) ? S, X?0 (t) = X?0 and, for specific values of t, the support of ?0 (t) is strictly contained in S. On the other hand, there is no fundamental reason to assume the irrepresentability condition (4). This follows from the requirement that a specific method (the Lasso) succeeds, but is unclear why it should be necessary in general. In this paper we prove that the Gauss-Lasso selector has nearly optimal model selection properties under a condition that is strictly weaker than irrepresentability. 2 G AUSS -L ASSO SELECTOR: Model selector for high dimensional problems Input: Measurement vector y, design model X, regularization parameter ?, support size s0 . b Output: Estimated support S. n b 1: Let T = supp(? ) be the support of Lasso estimator ?bn = ?bn (y, X, ?) given by n 1 o ?bn (Y, X; ?) ? arg minp kY ? X?k22 + ?k?k1 . ??R 2n 2: Construct the estimator ?bGL as follows: ?1 T ?bTGL = (XT XT y , T XT ) ?bTGL c = 0. GL 3: Find s0 -th largest entry (in modulus) of ?bTGL , denoted by ?b(s , and let 0)  GL Sb ? i ? [p] : |?biGL | ? |?b(s | . 0) We call this condition the generalized irrepresentability condition (GIC). The Gauss-Lasso procedure uses the Lasso to estimate a first model T ? {1, . . . , p}. It then constructs a new estimator by ordinary least squares regression of the data Y onto the model T . We prove that the estimated model is, with high probability, correct (i.e., Sb = S) under conditions comparable to the ones assumed in [14, 23, 21], while replacing irrepresentability by the weaker generalized irrepresentability condition. In the case of random Gaussian designs, our analysis further assumes the restricted eigenvalue property in order to establish a nearly optimal scaling of the sample size n with the sparsity parameter s0 . In order to build some intuition about the difference between irrepresentability and generalized irrepresentability, it is convenient to consider the Lasso cost function at ?zero noise?: 1 1 b ? ?0 )i + ?k?k1 . kX(? ? ?0 )k22 + ?k?k1 = h(? ? ?0 ), ?(? 2n 2 Let ?bZN (?) be the minimizer of G( ? ; ?) and v ? lim??0+ sign(?bZN (?)). The limit is well defined by Lemma 2.2 below. The KKT conditions for ?bZN imply, for T ? supp(v), G(?; ?) ? b T c ,T ? b ?1 vT k? ? 1 . k? T,T Since G( ? ; ?) has always at least one minimizer, this condition is always satisfied. Generalized irrepresentability requires that the above inequality holds with some small slack ? > 0 bounded away from zero, i.e., b T c ,T ? b ?1 vT k? ? 1 ? ? . k? T,T Notice that this assumption reduces to standard irrepresentability cf. Eq. (4) if, in addition, we ask that v = sign(?0 ). In other words, earlier work [14, 23, 21] required generalized irrepresentability plus sign-consistency in zero noise, and established sign consistency in non-zero noise. In this paper the former condition is shown to be sufficient. From a different point of view, GIC demands that irrepresentability holds for a superset of the true support S. It was indeed argued in the literature that such a relaxation of irrepresentability allows to cover a significantly broader set of cases (see for instance [3, Section 7.7.6]). However, it was never clarified why such a superset irrepresentability condition should be significantly more general than simple irrepresentability. Further, no precise prescription existed for the superset of the true support. Our contributions can therefore be summarized as follows: ? By tying it to the KKT condition for the zero-noise problem, we justify the expectation that generalized irrepresentability should hold for a broad class of design matrices. ? We thus provide a specific formulation of superset irrepresentability, prescribing both the superset T and the sign vector vT , that is, by itself, significantly more general than simple irrepresentability. 3 ? We show that, under GIC, exact support recovery can be guaranteed using the Gauss-Lasso, and formulate the appropriate ?minimum coefficient? conditions that guarantee this. As a side remark, even when simple irrepresentability holds, our results strengthen somewhat the estimates of [21] (see below for details). The paper is organized as follows. In the rest of the introduction we illustrate the range of applicability of GIC through a simple example and we discuss further related work. We finally introduce the basic notations to be used throughout the paper. Section 2 treats the case of deterministic designs X, and develops our main results on the basis of the GIC. Section 3 extends our analysis to the case of random designs. In this case GIC is required to hold for the population covariance, and the analysis is more technical as it requires to control the randomness of the design matrix. We refer the reader to the long version of the paper [11] for the proofs of our main results and the technical steps. 1.1 An example In order to illustrate the range of new cases covered by our results, it is instructive to consider a simple example. A detailed discussion of this calculation can be found in [11]. The example corresponds to a Gaussian random design, i.e., the rows X1T , . . . XnT are i.i.d. realizations of a p-variate normal distribution with mean zero. We write Xi = (Xi,1 , Xi,2 , . . . , Xi,p )T for the components of Xi . The response variable is linearly related to the first s0 covariates: Yi = ?0,1 Xi,1 + ?0,2 Xi,2 + ? ? ? + ?0,s0 Xi,s0 + Wi , 2 where Wi ? N(0, ? ) and we assume ?0,i > 0 for all i ? s0 . In particular S = {1, . . . , s0 }. As for the design matrix, first p ? 1 covariates are orthogonal at the population level, i.e., Xi,j ? N(0, 1) are independent for 1 ? j ? p ? 1 (and 1 ? i ? n). However the p-th covariate is correlated to the s0 relevant ones: ? i,p . Xi,p = a Xi,1 + a Xi,2 + ? ? ? + a Xi,s + b X 0 ? i,p ? N(0, 1) is independent from {Xi,1 , . . . , Xi,p?1 } and represents the orthogonal comHere X ponent of the p-th covariate. We choose the coefficients a, b ? 0 such that s0 a2 + b2 = 1, whence 2 E{Xi,p } = 1 and hence the p-th covariate is normalized as the first (p ? 1) ones. In other words, the rows of X are i.i.d. Gaussian Xi ? N(0, ?) with covariance given by ? ?1 if i = j, ?ij = a if i = p, j ? S or i ? S, j = p, ? 0 otherwise. For a = 0, this is the standard i.i.d. design and irrepresentability pholds. The Lasso correctly recovers the support S from n ? c s0 log p samples, provided ?min ? c0 (log p)/n. It follows from [21] that this remains true as long as a ? (1 ? ?)/s0 for some ? > 0 bounded away from 0. However, as soon as a > 1/s0 , the Lasso includes the p-th covariate in the estimated model, with high probability. On the other hand, Gauss-Lasso is successful for a significantly larger set of values of a. Namely, if     1?? 1 1?? a ? 0, ? , ? , s0 s0 s0 p then it recovers S from n ? c s0 log p samples, provided ?min ? c0 (log p)/n. While the interval ((1 ? ?)/s0 , 1/s0 ] is not covered by this result, we expect this to be due to the proof technique rather than to an intrinsic limitation of the Gauss-Lasso selector. 1.2 Further related work The restricted isometry property [7, 6] (or the related restricted eigenvalue [2] or compatibility conditions [19]) have been used to establish guarantees on the estimation and model selection errors of the Lasso or similar approaches. In particular, Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov [2] show that, under such conditions, with high probability, s0 log p k?b ? ?0 k22 ? C? 2 . n 4 The same conditions can be used to prove model-selection guarantees. In particular, Zhou [24] studies a multi-step thresholding procedure whose first steps coincide with the Gauss-Lasso. While the main objective of this work is to prove high-dimensional `2 consistency with a sparse estimated model, the author also proves partial model selection guarantees. pNamely, the method correctly recovers a subset of large coefficients SL ? S, provided |?0,i | ? c? s0 (log p)/n, ? for i ? SL . This means that the coefficients that are guaranteed to be detected must be a factor s0 larger than what is required by our results. An alternative approach to establishing model-selection guarantees assumes a suitable mutual incoherence conditions. Lounici [13] proves correct model selection under the assumption b ij | = O(1/s0 ). This assumption is however stronger than irrepresentability [19]. Cand?es maxi6=j |? and Plan [4] also assume mutual incoherence, albeit with a much weaker requirement, namely b ij | = O(1/(log p)). Under this condition, they establish model selection guarantees maxi6=j |? p for an ideal scaling of the non-zero coefficients ?min ? c? (log p)/n. However, this result only holds with high probability for a ?random signal model? in which the non-zero coefficients ?0,i have uniformly random signs. The authors in [22] consider the variable selection problem, and under the same assumptions on the non-zero coefficients as in the present paper, guarantee support recovery under a cone condition. The latter condition however is stronger than the generalized irrepresentability condition. In particular, for the example in Section 1.1 it yields no improvement over the standard irrepresentability. The work [20] studies the adaptive and the thresholded Lasso p estimators and proves correct model selection assuming the non-zero coefficients are of order s0 (log p)/n. Finally, model selection consistency can be obtained without irrepresentability through other methods. For instance [25] develops the adaptive Lasso, using a data-dependent weighted `1 regularization, and [1] proposes the Bolasso, a resampling-based techniques. Unfortunately, both of these approaches are only guaranteed to succeed in the low-dimensional regime of p fixed, and n ? ?. 1.3 Notations We provide a brief summary of the notations used throughout the paper. For a matrix A and set of indices I, J, we let AJ denote the submatrix containing just the columns in J and AI,J denote the submatrix formed by the rows in I and columns in J. Likewise, for a vector v, vI is the restriction ?1 ?1 of v to indices in I. Further, the notation A?1 . I,I represents the inverse of AI,I , i.e., AI,I = (AI,I ) The maximum and the minimum singular values of A are respectively denoted by ?max (A) and ?min (A). We write kvkp for the standard `p norm of a vector v. Specifically, kvk0 denotes the number of nonzero entries in v. Also, kAkp refers to the induced operator norm on a matrix A. We use ei to refer to the i-th standard basis element, e.g., e1 = (1, 0, . . . , 0). For a vector v, supp(v) represents the positions of nonzero entries of v. Throughout, we denote the rows of the design matrix X by X1 , . . . , Xn ? Rp and denote its columns by x1 , . . . , xp ? Rn . Further, for a vector v, sign(v) is the vector with entries sign(v)i = +1 if vi > 0, sign(v)i = ?1 if vi < 0, and sign(v)i = 0 otherwise. 2 Deterministic designs An outline of this section is as follows: (1) We first consider the zero-noise problem W = 0, and prove several useful properties of the Lasso estimator in this case. In particular, we show that there exists a threshold for the regularization parameter below which the support of the Lasso estimator remains the same and contains supp(?0 ). Moreover, the Lasso estimator support is not much larger than supp(?0 ). (2) We then turn to the noisy problem, and introduce the generalized irrepresentability condition (GIC) that is motivated by the properties of the Lasso in the zero-noise case. We prove that under GIC (and other technical conditions), with high probability, the signed support of the Lasso estimator is the same as that in the zero-noise problem. (3) We show that the Gauss-Lasso selector correctly recovers the signed support of ?0 . 5 2.1 Zero-noise problem b ? (XT X/n) denotes the empirical covariance of the rows of the design matrix. Given Recall that ? p?p b ?R ,? b  0, ?0 ? Rp and ? ? R+ , we define the zero-noise Lasso estimator as ? o n 1 b ? ?0 )i + ?k?k1 . h(? ? ?0 ), ?(? (5) ?bZN (?) ? arg minp ??R 2n Note that ?bZN (?) is obtained by letting Y = X?0 in the definition of ?bn (Y, X; ?). b Following [2], we introduce a restricted eigenvalue constant for the empirical covariance matrix ?: b hu, ?ui ? b(s, c0 ) ? min minp . (6) u?R kuk22 J?[p] |J|?s kuJ c k1 ?c0 kuJ k1 Our first result states that supp(?bZN (?)) is not much larger than the support of ?0 , for any ? > 0. Lemma 2.1. Let ?bZN = ?bZN (?) be defined as per Eq. (5), with ? > 0. Then, if s0 = k?0 k0 , ! b 2 4k ?k ZN k?b k0 ? 1 + s0 . (7) ? b(s0 , 1) Lemma 2.2. Let ?bZN = ?bZN (?) be defined as per Eq. (5), with ? > 0. Then there exist ?0 = b S, ?0 ) > 0, T0 ? [p], v0 ? {?1, 0, +1}p , such that the following happens. For all ? ? (0, ?0 ), ?0 (?, sign(?bZN (?)) = v0 and supp(?bZN (?)) = supp(v0 ) = T0 . Further T0 ? S, v0,S = sign(?0,S ) and b ?1 v0,T ]i |. ?0 = mini?S |?0,i /[? 0 T0 ,T0 Finally we have the following standard characterization of the solution of the zero-noise problem. Lemma 2.3. Let ?bZN = ?bZN (?) be defined as per Eq. (5), with ? > 0. Let T ? S and v ? {+1, 0, ?1}p be such that supp(v) = T . Then sign(?bZN ) = v if and only if b b ?1 vT (8) ?T c ,T ? ? 1, T,T ?   b ?1 vT . vT = sign ?0,T ? ? ? (9) T,T bZN = ?0,T ? ? ? b ?1 vT . Further, if the above holds, ?bZN is given by ?bTZN c = 0 and ?T T,T Motivated by this result, we introduce the generalized irrepresentability condition (GIC) for deterministic designs. b ?0 ), ? b ? Rp?p , ?0 ? Rp Generalized irrepresentability (deterministic designs). The pair (?, satisfy the generalized irrepresentability condition with parameter ? > 0 if the following happens. Let v0 , T0 be defined as per Lemma 2.2. Then b c b ?1 (10) ?T0 ,T0 ?T0 ,T0 v0,T0 ? 1 ? ? . ? In other words we require the dual feasibility condition (8), which always holds, to hold with a positive slack ?. 2.2 Noisy problem Consider the noisy linear observation model as described in (2), and let rb ? (XT W/n). We begin with a standard characterization of sign(?bn ), the signed support of the Lasso estimator (3). Lemma 2.4. Let ?bn = ?bn (y, X; ?) be defined as per Eq. (3), and let z ? {+1, 0, ?1}p with supp(z) = T . Further assume T ? S. Then the signed support of the Lasso estimator is given by sign(?bn ) = z if and only if b b ?1 zT + 1 (b b T c ,T ? b ?1 rbT ) rT c ? ? (11) ? 1, ?T c ,T ? T,T T,T ? ? b ?1 (?zT ? rbT ) . zT = sign ?0,T ? ? (12) T,T 6 b ? Theorem 2.5. Consider the deterministic design model with empirical covariance matrix ? T p b (X X)/n, and assume ?i,i ? 1 for i ? [p]. Let T0 ? [p], v0 ? {+1, 0, ?1} be the set and b T ,T ) ? Cmin > 0. (ii) The pair (?, b ?0 ) vector defined in Lemma 2.2. Assume that (i) ?min (? 0 0 satisfies the generalized irrepresentability condition with parameter ?. Consider the Lasso estimator p ?bn = ?bn (y, X; ?) defined as per Eq. (3), with ? = (?/?) 2c1 log p/n, for some constant c1 > 1, and suppose that for some c2 > 0: ?1 b for all i ? S, (13) |?0,i | ? c2 ? + ? [? T0 ,T0 v0,T0 ]i ?1 b [? for all i ? T0 \ S. (14) T0 ,T0 v0,T0 ]i ? c2 ? We further assume, without loss of generality, ? ? c2 Cmin . Then the following holds true: n o P sign(?bn (?)) = v0 ? 1 ? 4p1?c1 . (15) Note that even under standard irrepresentability, this result improves over [21, Theorem 1.(b)], in b ?1 k? . that the required lower bound for |?0,i |, i ? S, does not depend on k? S,S b T ,T to have minimum singular Remark 2.6. Condition (i) in Theorem 2.5 requires the submatrix ? 0 0 b value bounded away form zero. Assuming ?S,S to be non-singular is necessary for identifiability. b T ,T to be bounded away from zero is not much more Requiring the minimum singular value of ? 0 0 restrictive since T0 is comparable in size with S, as stated in Lemma 2.1. We next show that the Gauss-Lasso selector correctly recovers the support of ?0 . b ? Theorem 2.7. Consider the deterministic design model with empirical covariance matrix ? T b (X X)/n, and assume that ?i,i ? 1 for i ? [p]. Under the assumptions of Theorem 2.5,   2 2 P k?bGL ? ?0 k? ? ? ? 4p1?c1 + 2pe?nCmin ? /2? . In particular, if Sb is the model selected by the Gauss-Lasso, then P(Sb = S) ? 1 ? 6 p1?c1 /4 . 3 Random Gaussian designs In the previous section, we studied the case of deterministic design models which allowed for a straightforward analysis. Here, we consider the random design model which needs a more involved analysis. Within the random Gaussian design model, the rows Xi are distributed as Xi ? N(0, ?) for some (unknown) covariance matrix ?  0. In order to study the performance of Gauss-Lasso selector in this case, we first define the population-level estimator. Given ? ? Rp?p , ?  0, ?0 ? Rp and ? ? R+ , the population-level estimator ?b? (?) = ?b? (?; ?0 , ?) is defined as o n1 ?b? (?) ? arg minp h(? ? ?0 ), ?(? ? ?0 )i + ?k?k1 . (16) ??R 2 In fact, the population-level estimator is obtained by assuming that the response vector Y is noiseless and n = ?, hence replacing the empirical covariance (XT X/n) with the exact covariance ? in the lasso optimization problem (3). Note that the population-level estimator ?b? is deterministic, albeit X is a random design. We show that under some conditions on the covariance ? and vector ?0 , T ? supp(?bn ) = supp(?b? ), i.e., the population-level estimator and the Lasso estimator share the same (signed) support. Further T ? S. Since ?b? (and hence T ) is deterministic, XT is a Gaussian matrix with rows drawn independently from N(0, ?T,T ). This observation allows for a simple analysis of the Gauss-Lasso selector ?bGL . An outline of the section is as follows: (1) We begin with noting that the population-level estimator ?b? (?) has the similar properties to ?bZN (?) stated in Section 2.1. In particular, there exists a threshold ?0 , such that for all ? ? (0, ?0 ), supp(?b? (?)) remains the same and contains supp(?0 ). Moreover, supp(?b? (?)) is not much larger than supp(?0 ). (2) We show that under GIC for covariance matrix ? (and other sufficient conditions), with high probability, the signed support of the Lasso estimator is the same as the signed support of the population-level estimator. (3) Following the previous steps, we show that the Gauss-Lasso selector correctly recovers the signed support of ?0 . 7 3.1 The n = ? problem Comparing Eqs. (5) and (16), the estimators ?bZN (?) and ?b? (?) are defined in a very similar manner b and the latter is defined with respect to ?). It is easy to see (the former is defined with respect to ? ? b b with ?. that ? satisfies the properties stated in Section 2.1 once we replace ? 3.2 The high-dimensional problem b ? (XT X)/n and rb ? (XT W )/n. We now consider the Lasso estimator (3). Recall the notations ? p?p p b Note that ? ? R , rb ? R are both random quantities in the case of random designs. Theorem 3.1. Consider the Gaussian random design model with covariance matrix ?  0, and assume that ?i,i ? 1 for i ? [p]. Let T0 ? [p], v0 ? {+1, 0, ?1}p be the determinisb with ?), and t0 ? |T0 |. Assume that (i) tic set and vector defined in Lemma 2.2 (replacing ? ?min (?T0 ,T0 ) ? Cmin > 0. (ii) The pair (?, ?0 ) satisfies the generalized irrepresentability condition with parameter ?. Consider the Lasso estimator ?bn = ?bn (y, X; ?) defined as per Eq. (3), with p ? = (4?/?) c1 log p/n, for some constant c1 > 1, and suppose that for some c2 > 0: 3 |?0,i | ? c2 ? + ? [??1 for all i ? S, T0 ,T0 v0,T0 ]i 2 ?1 [? for all i ? T0 \ S. T0 ,T0 v0,T0 ]i ? 2c2 ? We further assume, without loss of generality, ? ? c2 Cmin . If n ? max(M1 , M2 )t0 log p M1 ? (74c1 )/(? 2 Cmin ), and M2 ? c1 (32/(c2 Cmin ))2 , then the following holds true: n o t0 n P sign(?bn (?)) = v0 ? 1 ? pe? 10 ? 6e? 2 ? 8p1?c1 . (17) (18) with (19) Note that even under standard irrepresentability, this result improves over [21, Theorem 3.(ii)], in ?1/2 that the required lower bound for |?0,i |, i ? S, does not depend on k?S,S k? . Remark 3.2. Condition (i) follows readily from the restricted eigenvalue constraint, i.e., ?? (t0 , 0) > 0. This is a reasonable assumption since T0 is not much larger than S0 , as stated b with ?). Namely, s0 ? t0 ? (1 + 4k?k2 /?(s0 , 1))s0 . in Lemma 2.1 (replacing ? Below, we show that the Gauss-Lasso selector correctly recovers the signed support of ?0 . Theorem 3.3. Consider the random Gaussian design model with covariance matrix ?  0, and assume that ?i,i ? 1 for i ? [p]. Under the assumptions of Theorem 3.1, and for n ? max(M1 , M2 )t0 log p, we have   s0 2 2 n P k?bGL ? ?0 k? ? ? ? pe? 10 + 6e? 2 + 8p1?c1 + 2pe?nCmin ? /2? . Moreover, letting S? be the model returned by the Gauss-Lasso selector, we have n P(Sb = S) ? 1 ? p e? 10 ? 6 e? s0 2 ? 10 p1?c1 . Remark 3.4. [Detection level] Let ?min ? mini?S |?0,i | be the minimum magnitude of the nonzero entries of vector ?0 . By Theorem 3.3, Gauss-Lasso selector correctly recovers supp(?0 ), with s0 n probability greater than 1 ? p e? 10 ? 6 e? 2 ? 10 p1?c1 , if n ? max(M1 , M2 )t0 log p, and r  log p ?min ? C? 1 + k??1 (20) T0 ,T0 k? , n for some constant C. Note that Eq. (20) follows from Eqs. (17) and (18). 8 References [1] F. R. Bach. 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Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing for High-Dimensional Statistical Models Andrea Montanari Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 [email protected] Adel Javanmard Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 [email protected] Abstract Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the parameter estimates. This in turn implies that it is extremely challenging to quantify the uncertainty associated with a certain parameter estimate. Concretely, no commonly accepted procedure exists for computing classical measures of uncertainty and statistical significance as confidence intervals or p-values. We consider here a broad class of regression problems, and propose an efficient algorithm for constructing confidence intervals and p-values. The resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size. When testing for the null hypothesis that a certain parameter is vanishing, our method has nearly optimal power. Our approach is based on constructing a ?de-biased? version of regularized Mestimators. The new construction improves over recent work in the field in that it does not assume a special structure on the design matrix. Furthermore, proofs are remarkably simple. We test our method on a diabetes prediction problem. 1 Introduction It is widely recognized that modern statistical problems are increasingly high-dimensional, i.e. require estimation of more parameters than the number of observations/examples. Examples abound from signal processing [16], to genomics [21], collaborative filtering [12] and so on. A number of successful estimation techniques have been developed over the last ten years to tackle these problems. A widely applicable approach consists in optimizing a suitably regularized likelihood function. Such estimators are, by necessity, non-linear and non-explicit (they are solution of certain optimization problems). The use of non-linear parameter estimators comes at a price. In general, it is impossible to characterize the distribution of the estimator. This situation is very different from the one of classical statistics in which either exact characterizations are available, or asymptotically exact ones can be derived from large sample theory [26]. This has an important and very concrete consequence. In classical statistics, generic and well accepted procedures are available for characterizing the uncertainty associated to a certain parameter estimate in terms of confidence intervals or p-values [28, 14]. However, no analogous procedures exist in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper we develop a computationally efficient procedure for constructing confidence intervals and p-values for a broad class of high-dimensional regression problems. The salient features of our procedure are: (i) Our approach guarantees nearly optimal confidence interval sizes and testing power. (ii) It is the first one that achieves this goal under essentially no assumptions on the population covariance matrix of the parameters, beyond the standard conditions for high-dimensional consistency. (iii) It allows for a streamlined analysis with respect to earlier work in the same area. 1 Table 1: Unbiased estimator for ?0 in high dimensional linear regression models Input: Measurement vector y, design matrix X, parameter ?. Output: Unbiased estimator ?bu . 1: Set ? = ??, and let ?bn be the Lasso estimator as per Eq. (3). b ? (XT X)/n. 2: Set ? 3: for i = 1, 2, . . . , p do 4: Let mi be a solution of the convex program: b mT ?m b ? ei k? ? ? subject to k?m minimize (4) 5: Set M = (m1 , . . . , mp )T . If any of the above problems is not feasible, then set M = Ip?p . 6: Define the estimator ?bu as follows: 1 ?bu = ?bn (?) + M XT (Y ? X?bn (?)) n (5) (iv) Our method has a natural generalization non-linear regression models (e.g. logistic regression, see Section 4). We provide heuristic and numerical evidence supporting this generalization, deferring a rigorous study to future work. For the sake of clarity, we will focus our presentation on the case of linear regression, deferring the generalization to Section 4. In the random design model, we are given n i.i.d. pairs (Y1 , X1 ), (Y2 , X2 ), . . . , (Yn , Xn ), with vectors Xi ? Rp and response variables Yi given by Wi ? N(0, ? 2 ) . Yi = h?0 , Xi i + Wi , (1) Here h ? , ? i is the standard scalar product in Rp . In matrix form, letting Y = (Y1 , . . . , Yn )T and denoting by X the design matrix with rows X1T , . . . , XnT , we have Y = X ?0 + W , W ? N(0, ? 2 In?n ) . (2) p The goal is estimate the unknown (but fixed) vector of parameters ?0 ? R . In the classic setting, n  p and the estimation method of choice is ordinary least squares yielding ?bOLS = (XT X)?1 XT Y . In particular ?b is Gaussian with mean ?0 and covariance ? 2 (XT X)?1 . This directly allows to construct confidence intervals1 . In the high-dimensional setting where p > n, the matrix (XT X) is rank deficient and one has to resort to biased estimators. A particularly successful approach is the Lasso [24, 7] which promotes sparse reconstructions through an `1 penalty. o n 1 kY ? X?k22 + ?k?k1 . (3) ?bn (Y, X; ?) ? arg minp ??R 2n In case the right hand side has more than one minimizer, one of them can be selected arbitrarily for our purposes. We will often omit the arguments Y , X, as they are clear from the context. We denote by S ? supp(?0 ) ? [p] the support of ?0 , and let s0 ? |S|. A copious theoretical literature [6, 2, 4] shows that, under suitable assumptions on X, the Lasso is nearly as accurate as if the support S was known a priori. Namely, for n = ?(s0 log p), we have k?bn ? ?0 k22 = O(s0 ? 2 (log p)/n). These remarkable properties come at a price. Deriving an exact characterization for the distribution of ?bn is not tractable in general, and hence there is no simple procedure to construct confidence intervals and p-values. In order to overcome this challenge, we construct a de-biased estimator from the Lasso solution. The de-biased estimator is given by the simple formula ?bu = ?bn +(1/n) M XT (Y ?X?bn ), as in Eq. (5). The basic intuition is that XT (Y ? X?bn )/(n?) is a subgradient of the `1 norm at the Lasso solution ?bn . By adding a term proportional to this subgradient, our procedure compensates the bias introduced by the `1 penalty in the Lasso. For instance, letting Q ? (XT X/n)?1 , ?biOLS ? 1.96? dence interval [28]. 1 2 p Qii /n, ?biOLS + 1.96? p Qii /n] is a 95% confi- We will prove in Section 2 that ?bu is approximately Gaussian, with mean ?0 and covariance b )/n, where ? b = (XT X/n) is the empirical covariance of the feature vectors. This result ? 2 (M ?M allows to construct confidence intervals and p-values in complete analogy withp classical statistics p u u b b b procedures. For instance, letting Q ? M ?M , [?i ? 1.96? ? Qii /n, ?i + 1.96? Qii /n] is a 95% confidence interval. The size of this interval is of order ?/ n, which is the optimal (minimum) one, i.e. the same that would have been obtained by knowing a priori the support of ?0 . In practice the noise standard deviation is not known, but ? can be replaced by any consistent estimator ? b. A key role is played by the matrix M ? Rp?p whose function is to ?decorrelate? the columns of X. We propose here to construct M by solving a convex program that aims at optimizing two objectives. b ? I|? (here and below | ? |? denotes the entrywise `? norm) One one hand, we try to control |M ? which ?as shown in Theorem 2.1? controls the non-Gaussianity and bias of ?bu . On the other, we b ]i,i , for each i ? [p], which controls the variance of ?bu . minimize [M ?M i The idea of constructing a de-biased estimator of the form ?bu = ?bn + (1/n) M XT (Y ? X?bn ) was used by Javanmard and Montanari in [10], that suggested the choice M = c??1 , with ? = E{X1 X1T } the population covariance matrix and c a positive constant. A simple estimator for ? was proposed for sparse covariances, but asymptotic validity and optimality were proven only for uncorrelated Gaussian designs (i.e. Gaussian X with ? = I). Van de Geer, B?ulhmann and Ritov [25] used the same construction with M an estimate of ??1 which is appropriate for sparse inverse covariances. These authors prove semi-parametric optimality in a non-asymptotic setting, provided the sample size is at least n = ?(s20 log p). In this paper, we do not assume any sparsity constraint on ??1 , but still require the sample size scaling n = ?(s20 log p). We refer to a forthcoming publication wherein the condition on the sample size scaling is relaxed [11]. From a technical point of view, our proof starts from a simple decomposition of the de-biased estimator ?bu into a Gaussian part and an error term, already used in [25]. However ?departing radically from earlier work? we realize that M need not be a good estimator of ??1 in order for the de-biasing procedure to work. We instead set M as to minimize the error term and the variance of the Gaussian term. As a consequence of this choice, our approach applies to general covariance structures ?. By contrast, earlier approaches applied only to sparse ?, as in [10], or sparse ??1 as in [25]. The only assumptions we make on ? are the standard compatibility conditions required for high-dimensional consistency [4]. We refer the reader to the long version of the paper [9] for the proofs of our main results and the technical steps. 1.1 Further related work The theoretical literature on high-dimensional statistical models is vast and rapidly growing. Restricting ourselves to linear regression, earlier work investigated prediction error [8], model selection properties [17, 31, 27, 5], `2 consistency [6, 2]. Of necessity, we do not provide a complete set of references, and instead refer the reader to [4] for an in-depth introduction to this area. The problem of quantifying statistical significance in high-dimensional parameter estimation is, by comparison, far less understood. Zhang and Zhang [30], and B?uhlmann [3] proposed hypothesis testing procedures under restricted eigenvalue or compatibility conditions [4]. These methods are however effective only ? for detecting very ? large coefficients. Namely, they both require |?0,i | ? c max{?s0 log p/ n, ?/ n}, which is s0 larger than the ideal detection level [10]. In other words, in order for the coefficient ?0,i to be detectable with appreciable probability, it needs to be larger than the overall `2 error, rather than the `2 error per coordinate. Lockart et al. [15] develop a test for the hypothesis that a newly added coefficient along the Lasso regularization path is irrelevant. This however does not allow to test arbitrary coefficients at a given value of ?, which is instead the problem addressed in this paper. It further assumes that the current Lasso support contains the actual support supp(?0 ) and that the latter has bounded size. Finally, resampling methods for hypothesis testing were studied in [29, 18, 19]. 1.2 Preliminaries and notations b ? XT X/n be the sample covariance matrix. For p > n, ? b is always singular. However, We let ? b we may require ? to be nonsingular for a restricted set of directions. 3 b and a set S of size s0 , the compatibility condition is met, if for some Definition 1.1. For a matrix ? ?0 > 0, and all ? satisfying k?S c k1 ? 3k?S k1 , it holds that k?S k21 ? s0 T b ? ?? . ?20 Definition 1.2. The sub-gaussian norm of a random variable X, denoted by kXk?2 , is defined as kXk?2 = sup p?1/2 (E|X|p )1/p . p?1 The sub-gaussian norm of a random vector X ? Rn is defined as kXk?2 = supx?S n?1 khX, xik?2 . Further, for a random variable X, its sub-exponential norm, denoted by kXk?1 , is defined as kXk?1 = sup p?1 (E|X|p )1/p . p?1 For a matrix A and set of indices I, J, we let AI,J denote the submatrix formed by the rows in I and columns in J. Also, AI,? (resp. A?,I ) denotes the submatrix containing just the rows (reps. columns) in I. Likewise, for a vector v, vI is the restriction of v to indices in I. We use the shorthand ?1 ?1 A?1 )I,J . In particular, A?1 )i,i . The maximum and the minimum singular values i,i = (A I,J = (A of A are respectively denoted by ?max (A) and ?min (A). We write kvkp for the standard `p norm of a vector v and kvk0 for the number of nonzero entries of v. For a matrix A, kAkp is the `p operator P norm, and |A|p is the elementwise `p norm, i.e., |A|p = ( i,j |Aij |p )1/p . For an integer p ? 1, we let [p] ? {1, . . . , p}. For a vector v, supp(v) represents the positions of nonzero entries of v. Throughout, (w.h.p) means with probability converging to one as n ? ?, and ? R x with2high probability ?(x) ? ?? e?t /2 dt/ 2? denotes the CDF of the standard normal distribution. 2 An de-biased estimator for ?0 Theorem 2.1. Consider the linear model (1) and let ?bu be defined as per Eq. (5). Then, ? u ? b . b T ) , ? = n(M ? b ? I)(?0 ? ?) n(?b ? ?0 ) = Z + ? , Z|X ? N(0, ? 2 M ?M Further, suppose that ?min (?) = ?(1), and ?max (?) = O(1). In addition assume the rows of the whitened matrix X??1/2 are sub-gaussian, i.e., k??1/2 X1 k?2 = O(1). Let E be the event that the p b i,i = O(1). Then, using ? = O( (log p)/n) b and maxi?[p] ? compatibility condition holds for ?, ? (see inputs in Table 1), the following holds true. On the event E, w.h.p, k?k? = O(s0 log p/ n). Note that compatibility condition (and hence the event E) holds w.h.p. for random design matrices of a general nature. In fact [22] shows that under some general assumptions, the compatibility b w.h.p., when n is sufficiently large. Bounds on condition on ? implies a similar condition on ?, T b the variances [M ?M ]ii will be given in Section 3.2. Finally, the claim of Theorem 2.1 does not rely on the specific choice of the objective function in optimization problem (4) and only uses the optimization constraints. Remark 2.2. Theorem 2.1 does not make any assumption ? about the parameter vector ?0 . If we further assume that the support size s0 satisfies s0 = o( n/ log p), then we have k?k? = o(1), w.h.p. Hence, ?bu is an asymptotically unbiased estimator for ?0 . 3 Statistical inference A direct application of Theorem 2.1 is to derive confidence intervals and statistical hypothesis tests ? for high dimensional models. Throughout, we make the sparsity assumption s0 = o( n/ log p). 3.1 Confidence intervals We first show that the variances of variables Zj |X are ?(1). 4 Lemma 3.1. Let M = (m1 , . . . , mp )T be the matrix with rows mT i obtained by solving convex T 2 b b program (4). Then for all i ? [p], [M ?M ]i,i ? (1 ? ?) /?i,i . By Remark 2.2 and Lemma 3.1, we have o n ?n(?bu ? ? ) 0,i i P ? x X = ?(x) + o(1) , 1/2 T b ?[M ?M ]i,i ?x ? R . (6) Since the limiting probability is independent of X, Eq. (6) also holds unconditionally for random design X. For constructing confidence intervals, a consistent estimate of ? is needed. To this end, we use the scaled Lasso [23] given by n 1 o ? {?bn (?), ? b} ? arg min kY ? X?k22 + + ?k?k1 . 2 ??Rp ,?>0 2?n This is a joint convex minimization which provides an estimate of the noise level in addition to an p b, under the assumptions estimate of ?0 . We use ? = c1 (log p)/n that yields a consistent estimate ? of Theorem 2.1 (cf. [23]). We hence obtain the following. Corollary 3.2. Let q ?1 ?1/2 b T ]i,i . ?(?, n) = ? (1 ? ?/2)b ?n [M ?M (7) Then Ii = [?biu ? ?(?, n), ?biu + ?(?, n)] is an asymptotic two-sided confidence interval for ?0,i with significance ?. Notice that the same corollary applies to any other consistent estimator ? b of the noise standard deviation. 3.2 Hypothesis testing An important advantage of sparse linear regression models is that they provide parsimonious explanations of the data in terms of a small number of covariates. The easiest way to select the ?active? covariates is to choose the indexes i for which ?bin 6= 0. This approach however does not provide a measure of statistical significance for the finding that the coefficient is non-zero. More precisely, we are interested in testing an individual null hypothesis H0,i : ?0,i = 0 versus the alternative HA,i : ?0,i 6= 0, and assigning p-values for these tests. We construct a p-value Pi for the test H0,i as follows:    ? bu n |?i | . (8) Pi = 2 1 ? ? b T ]1/2 ? b[M ?M i,i The decision rule is then based on the p-value Pi :  1 if Pi ? ? Ti,X (y) = 0 otherwise (reject H0,i ) , (accept H0,i ) . (9) We measure the quality of the test Ti,X (y) in terms of its significance level ?i and statistical power 1 ? ?i . Here ?i is the probability of type I error (i.e. of a false positive at i) and ?i is the probability of type II error (i.e. of a false negative at i). Note that it is important to consider the tradeoff between statistical significance and power. Indeed any significance level ? can be achieved by randomly rejecting H0,i with probability ?. This test achieves power 1 ? ? = ?. Further note that, without further assumption, no nontrivial power can be achieved. In fact, choosing ?0,i 6= 0 arbitrarily close to zero, H0,i becomes indistinguishable from its alternative. We will therefore assume that, whenever ?0,i 6= 0, we have |?0,i | > ? as well. We take a minimax perspective and require the test to behave uniformly well over s0 -sparse vectors. Formally, for ? > 0 and i ? [p], define n o ?i (n) ? sup P?0 (Ti,X (y) = 1) : ?0 ? Rp , k?0 k0 ? s0 (n), ?0,i = 0 . n o ?i (n; ?) ? sup P?0 (Ti,X (y) = 0) : ?0 ? Rp , k?0 k0 ? s0 (n), |?0,i | ? ? . 5 Here, we made dependence on n explicit. Also, P? (?) is the induced probability for random design X and noise realization w, given the fixed parameter vector ?. Our next theorem establishes bounds on ?i (n) and ?i (n; ?). Theorem 3.3. Consider a random? design model that satisfies the conditions of Theorem 2.1. Under the sparsity assumption s0 = o( n/ log p), the following holds true for any fixed sequence of integers i = i(n): lim ?i (n) ? ? . (10) n?? lim n?? 1 ? ?i (?; n) ? 1, 1 ? ?i? (?; n)  1 ? ?i? (?; n) ? G ?, ? n? 1/2 ?[??1 i,i ]  , (11) where, for ? ? [0, 1] and u ? R+ , the function G(?, u) is defined as follows: ? ? G(?, u) = 2 ? ?(??1 (1 ? ) + u) ? ?(??1 (1 ? ) ? u) . 2 2 It is easy to see that, for any ? > 0, u 7? G(?, u) is continuous and monotone increasing. Moreover, G(?, 0) = ? which is the trivial power obtained by randomly rejecting H0,i with probability ?. As ? deviates from zero, we obtain nontrivial to achieve a specific power ? power. Notice that in order ?1 ? > ?, our scheme requires ? = O(?/ n), since ??1 ) ? (?min (?))?1 = O(1). i,i ? ?max (? 3.2.1 Minimax optimality The authors of [10] prove an upper bound for the minimax power of tests with a given significance level ?, under the Gaussian random design models (see Theorem 2.6 therein). This bound is obtained by considering an oracle test that knows all the active parameters except i, i.e., S\{i}. To state the bound formally, for a set S ? [p] and i ? S c , define ?i|S ? ?i,i ? ?i,S (?S,S )?1 ?S,i , and let n o ??,s0 ? min ?i|S : S ? [p]\{i}, |S| < s0 . i?[p],S ? In asymptotic regime and under our sparsity assumption s0 = o( n/ log p), the bound of [10] simplifies to lim n?? 1 ? ?iopt (?; ?) ? 1, G(?, ?/?eff ) ?eff = ? ? , n ??,s0 (12) Using the bound of (12) and specializing the result of Theorem 3.3 to Gaussian design X, we obtain that our scheme achieves a near optimal minimax power for a broad class of covariance matrices. We can compare our test to the optimal test by computing how much ? must be increased in order to achieve the minimax optimal power. It follows from the above that ? must be increased to ? ?, with the two differing by a factor: q q p ? ?/? = ??1 ? ? ??1 ?max (?)/?min (?) , ?,s 0 ii i,i ?i,i ? ?1 since ??1 , and ?i|S ? ?i,i ? ?max (?) due to ?S,S  0. ii ? (?min (?)) 4 General regularized maximum likelihood In this section, we generalize our results beyond the linear regression model to general regularized maximum likelihood. Here, we only describe the de-biasing method. Formal guarantees can be obtained under suitable restricted strong convexity assumptions [20] and will be the object of a forthcoming publication. For univariate Y , and vector X ? Rp , we let {f? (Y |X)}??Rp be a family of conditional probability densities parameterized by ?, that are absolutely continuous with respect to a common measure ?(dy), and suppose that the gradient ?? f? (Y |X) exists and is square integrable. As in for linear regression, we assume that the data is given by n i.i.d. pairs (X1 , Y1 ), . . . (Xn , Yn ), where conditional on Xi , the response variable Yi is distributed as Yi ? f?0 ( ? |Xi ) . 6 for some parameter vector ?0 ? Rp . Let Li (?) = ? log f? (Yi |Xi ) be the normalized negative Pn log-likelihood corresponding to the observed pair (Yi , Xi ), and define L(?) = n1 i=1 Li (?) . We consider the following regularized estimator:  (13) ?b ? arg minp L(?) + ?R(?) , ??R where ? is a regularization parameter and R : Rp ? R+ is a norm. b Let Ii (?) be the Fisher information of f? (Y |Xi ), defined as We next generalize the definition of ?. h  i h  T i Ii (?) ? E ?? log f? (Y |Xi ) ?? log f? (Y |Xi ) Xi = ?E ?2? log f (Y |Xi , ?) Xi , where the second identity holds under suitable regularity conditions [13], and ?2? denotes the Hesb ? Rp?p as follows: sian operator. We assume E[Ii (?)]  0 define ? n X b . b? 1 ? Ii (?) n i=1 (14) b Finally, the de-biased estimator ?bu is defined by ?bu ? b depends on ?. Note that (in general) ? b b ? ? M ?? L(?) , with M given again by the solution of the convex program (4), and the definition of b provided here. Notice that this construction is analogous to the one in [25] (although the present ? setting is somewhat more general) with the crucial difference of the construction of M . b A a simple heuristic derivation of this method is the following. By Taylor expansion of L(?) u 2 2 b around ?0 we get ?b ? ?b ? M ?? L(?0 ) ? M ?? L(?0 )(?b ? ?0 ) . Approximating ?? L(?0 ) ? ? u b (which amounts to taking expectation with respect to the response variables yi ), we get ? ? ?0 ? b ? I](?b ? ?b0 ). Conditionally on {Xi }1?i?n , the first term has zero expectation ?M ?? L(?0 ) ? [M ? b ]. Further, by central limit theorem, its low-dimensional marginals are apand covariance [M ?M b ? I](?b ? ?b0 ) can be bounded as in the linear regression proximately Gaussian. The bias term ?[M ? b ? I|? ? ?. case, building on the fact that M is chosen such that |M ? Similar to the linear case, an asymptotic two-sided confidence interval for ?0,i (with significance ?) is given by Ii = [?biu ? ?(?, n), ?biu + ?(?, n)], where b T ]1/2 . ?(?, n) = ??1 (1 ? ?/2)n?1/2 [M ?M i,i Moreover, an asymptotically valid p-value Pi for testing null hypothesis H0,i is constructed as:    ? bu n|?i | . Pi = 2 1 ? ? b T ]1/2 [M ?M i,i In the next section, we shall apply the general approach presented here to L1 -regularized logistic regression. In this case, the binary response Yi ? {0, 1} is distributed as Yi ? f?0 ( ? |Xi ) where f?0 (1|x) = (1 + e?hx,?0 i )?1 and f?0 (0|x) = (1 + ehx,?0 i )?1 . It is easy to see that in this case b i i ?1 b = qbi (1 ? qbi )Xi X T , with qbi = (1 + e?h?,X Ii (?) ) , and thus i n X b= 1 ? qbi (1 ? qbi )Xi XiT . n i=1 5 Diabetes data example We consider the problem of estimating relevant attributes in predicting type-2 diabetes. We evaluate the performance of our hypothesis testing procedure on the Practice Fusion Diabetes dataset [1]. This dataset contains de-identified medical records of 10000 patients, including information on diagnoses, medications, lab results, allergies, immunizations, and vital signs. From this dataset, we extract p numerical attributes resulting in a sparse design matrix Xtot ? Rntot ?p , with ntot = 10000, 7 0.3 ~ ZSc ~ ZS N(0, 1) 0.1 0.2 Density 2 0 -2 0.0 -4 Sample Quantiles of Z 4 0.4 ~ Histograms of Z -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -10 -5 0 5 10 Standard normal quantiles (a) (b) Q-Q plot of Z ? for one realization. Normalized histograms of Z Figure 1: Q-Q plot of Z and normalized histograms of Z?S (in red) and Z?S c (in blue) for one realization. No fitting of the Gaussian mean and variance was done in panel (b). and p = 805 (only 5.9% entries of Xtot are non-zero). Next, we standardize the columns of X to have mean 0 and variance 1. The attributes consist of: (i)Transcript records: year of birth, gender and BMI; (ii)Diagnoses informations: 80 binary attributes corresponding to different ICD-9 codes. (iii)Medications: 80 binary attributes indicating the use of different medications. (iv) Lab results: For 70 lab test observations, we include attributes indicating patients tested, abnormality flags, and the observed values. We also bin the observed values into 10 quantiles and make 10 binary attributes indicating the bin of the corresponding observed value. We consider logistic model as described in the previous section with a binary response identifying the patients diagnosed with type-2 diabetes. For the sake of performance evaluation, we need to know the true significant attributes. Letting L(?) be the logistic loss corresponding to the design Xtot and response vector Y ? Rntot , we take ?0 as the minimizer of L(?). Notice that here, we are in the low dimensional regime (ntot > p) and no regularization is needed. Next, we take random subsamples of size n = 500 from the patients, and examine the performance of our testing procedure. The experiment is done using glmnet-package in R that fits the entire path of the regularized logistic estimator. We then choose the value of ? that yields maximum AUC (area under ROC curve), approximated by a 5-fold cross validation. Results: Type I errors and powers of our decision rule (9) are computed by comparing to ?0 . The average error and power (over 20 random subsamples) and significance level ? = 0.05 are respec? b ]1/2 . tively, 0.0319 and 0.818. Let Z = (zi )pi=1 denote the vector with zi ? n(?biu ? ?0,i )/[M ?M i,i In Fig. 1(a), sample quantiles of Z are depicted versus the quantiles of a standard normal distribution. The plot clearly corroborates our theoretical result regarding the limiting distribution of Z. In order to build further intuition about the proposed p-values, let Z? = (? zi )pi=1 be the vector with ? bu b ]1/2 . In Fig. 1(b), we plot the normalized histograms of Z?S (in red) and Z?S c (in z?i ? n?i /[M ?M i,i blue). As the plot showcases, Z?S c has roughly standard normal distribution, and the entries of Z?S appear as distinguishable spikes. The entries of Z?S with larger magnitudes are easier to be marked off from the normal distribution tail. References [1] Practice Fusion Diabetes Classification. http://www.kaggle.com/c/pf2012-diabetes, 2012. Kaggle competition dataset. 8 [2] P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, and A. B. Tsybakov. Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector. Amer. J. of Mathematics, 37:1705?1732, 2009. [3] P. B?uhlmann. Statistical significance in high-dimensional linear models. arXiv:1202.1377, 2012. [4] P. B?uhlmann and S. van de Geer. Statistics for high-dimensional data. Springer-Verlag, 2011. [5] E. Cand`es and Y. Plan. Near-ideal model selection by `1 minimization. The Annals of Statistics, 37(5A):2145?2177, 2009. [6] E. J. Cand?es and T. Tao. 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Statistical Science, 27(4):538?557, 2012. [21] J. Peng, J. Zhu, A. Bergamaschi, W. Han, D.-Y. Noh, J. R. Pollack, and P. Wang. Regularized multivariate regression for identifying master predictors with application to integrative genomics study of breast cancer. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 4(1):53?77, 2010. [22] M. Rudelson and S. Zhou. Reconstruction from anisotropic random measurements. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 59(6):3434?3447, 2013. [23] T. Sun and C.-H. Zhang. Scaled sparse linear regression. Biometrika, 99(4):879?898, 2012. [24] R. Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection with the Lasso. J. Royal. Statist. Soc B, 58:267?288, 1996. [25] S. van de Geer, P. B?uhlmann, and Y. Ritov. On asymptotically optimal confidence regions and tests for high-dimensional models. arXiv:1303.0518, 2013. [26] A. W. Van der Vaart. Asymptotic statistics, volume 3. Cambridge university press, 2000. [27] M. Wainwright. Sharp thresholds for high-dimensional and noisy sparsity recovery using `1 -constrained quadratic programming. IEEE Trans. on Inform. Theory, 55:2183?2202, 2009. [28] L. Wasserman. All of statistics: a concise course in statistical inference. Springer Verlag, 2004. [29] L. Wasserman and K. Roeder. High dimensional variable selection. Annals of statistics, 37(5A):2178, 2009. [30] C.-H. Zhang and S. Zhang. Confidence Intervals for Low-Dimensional Parameters in High-Dimensional Linear Models. arXiv:1110.2563, 2011. [31] P. Zhao and B. Yu. On model selection consistency of Lasso. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:2541?2563, 2006. 9
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Compressive Feature Learning Robert West Department of Computer Science Stanford University [email protected] Hristo S. Paskov Department of Computer Science Stanford University [email protected] Trevor J. Hastie Department of Statistics Stanford University [email protected] John C. Mitchell Department of Computer Science Stanford University [email protected] Abstract This paper addresses the problem of unsupervised feature learning for text data. Our method is grounded in the principle of minimum description length and uses a dictionary-based compression scheme to extract a succinct feature set. Specifically, our method finds a set of word k-grams that minimizes the cost of reconstructing the text losslessly. We formulate document compression as a binary optimization task and show how to solve it approximately via a sequence of reweighted linear programs that are efficient to solve and parallelizable. As our method is unsupervised, features may be extracted once and subsequently used in a variety of tasks. We demonstrate the performance of these features over a range of scenarios including unsupervised exploratory analysis and supervised text categorization. Our compressed feature space is two orders of magnitude smaller than the full k-gram space and matches the text categorization accuracy achieved in the full feature space. This dimensionality reduction not only results in faster training times, but it can also help elucidate structure in unsupervised learning tasks and reduce the amount of training data necessary for supervised learning. 1 Introduction Machine learning algorithms rely critically on the features used to represent data; the feature set provides the primary interface through which an algorithm can reason about the data at hand. A typical pitfall for many learning problems is that there are too many potential features to choose from. Intelligent subselection is essential in these scenarios because it can discard noise from irrelevant features, thereby requiring fewer training examples and preventing overfitting. Computationally, a smaller feature set is almost always advantageous as it requires less time and space to train the algorithm and make inferences [10, 9]. Various heuristics have been proposed for feature selection, one class of which work by evaluating each feature separately with respect to its discriminative power. Some examples are document frequency, chi-square value, information gain, and mutual information [26, 9]. More sophisticated methods attempt to achieve feature sparsity by optimizing objective functions containing an L1 regularization penalty [25, 27]. Unsupervised feature selection methods [19, 18, 29, 13] are particularly attractive. First, they do not require labeled examples, which are often expensive to obtain (e.g., when humans have to provide them) or might not be available in advance (e.g., in text classification, the topic to be retrieved might be defined only at some later point). Second, they can be run a single time in an offline preprocessing 1 step, producing a reduced feature space that allows for subsequent rapid experimentation. Finally, a good data representation obtained in an unsupervised way captures inherent structure and can be used in a variety of machine learning tasks such as clustering, classification, or ranking. In this work we present a novel unsupervised method for feature selection for text data based on ideas from data compression and formulated as an optimization problem. As the universe of potential features, we consider the set of all word k-grams.1 The basic intuition is that substrings appearing frequently in a corpus represent a recurring theme in some of the documents, and hence pertain to class representation. However, it is not immediately clear how to implement this intuition. For instance, consider a corpus of NIPS papers. The bigram ?supervised learning? will appear often, but so will the constituent unigrams ?supervised? and ?learning?. So shall we use the bigram, the two separate unigrams, or a combination, as features? Our solution invokes the principle of minimum description length (MDL) [23]: First, we compress the corpus using a dictionary-based lossless compression method. Then, the substrings that are used to reconstruct each document serve as the feature set. We formulate the compression task as a numerical optimization problem. The problem is non-convex, but we develop an efficient approximate algorithm that is linear in the number of words in the corpus and highly parallelizable. In the example, the bigram ?supervised learning? would appear often enough to be added to the dictionary; ?supervised? and ?learning? would also be chosen as features if they appear separately in combinations other than ?supervised learning? (because the compression paradigm we choose is lossless). We apply our method to two datasets and compare it to a canonical bag-of-k-grams representation. Our method reduces the feature set size by two orders of magnitude without incurring a loss of performance on several text categorization tasks. Moreover, it expedites training times and requires significantly less labeled training data on some text categorization tasks. 2 Compression and Machine Learning Our work draws on a deep connection between data compression and machine learning, exemplified early on by the celebrated MDL principle [23]. More recently, researchers have experimented with off-the-shelf compression algorithms as machine learning subroutines. Instances are Frank et al.?s [7] compression-based approach to text categorization, as well as compression-based distance measures, where the basic intuition is that, if two texts x and y are very similar, then the compressed version of their concatenation xy should not be much longer than the compressed version of either x or y separately. Such approaches have been shown to work well on a variety of tasks such as language clustering [1], authorship attribution [1], time-series clustering [6, 11], anomaly detection [11], and spam filtering [3]. Distance-based approaches are akin to kernel methods, and thus suffer from the problem that constructing the full kernel matrix for large datasets might be infeasible. Furthermore, Frank et al. [7] deplore that ?it is hard to see how efficient feature selection could be incorporated? into the compression algorithm. But Sculley and Brodley [24] show that many compression-based distance measures can be interpreted as operating in an implicit high-dimensional feature space, spanned by the dictionary elements found during compression. We build on this observation to address Frank et al.?s above-cited concern about the impossibility of feature selection for compression-based methods. Instead of using an off-the-shelf compression algorithm as a black-box kernel operating in an implicit high-dimensional feature space, we develop an optimization-based compression scheme whose explicit job it is to perform feature selection. It is illuminating to discuss a related approach suggested (as future work) by Sculley and Brodley [24], namely ?to store substrings found by Lempel?Ziv schemes as explicit features?. This simplistic approach suffers from a serious flaw that our method overcomes. Imagine we want to extract features from an entire corpus. We would proceed by concatenating all documents in the corpus into a single large document D, which we would compress using a Lempel?Ziv algorithm. The problem is that the extracted substrings are dependent on the order in which we concatenate the documents to form the input D. For the sake of concreteness, consider LZ77 [28], a prominent member of the Lempel? Ziv family (but the argument applies equally to most standard compression algorithms). Starting from the current cursor position, LZ77 scans D from left to right, consuming characters until it 1 In the remainder of this paper, the term ?k-grams? includes sequences of up to (rather than exactly) k words. 2 Document Min.?dictionary?cost Min.?combined?cost Min.?pointer?cost m?a?n?a?m?a?n?a m?a?n?a?m?a?n?a m?a?n?a?m?a?n?a m?????a?????n m?a?n?a m?a?n?a?m?a?n?a 3?+?(0???8)?=?3 4?+?(1???2)?=?6 8?+?(8???1)?=?16 Pointers Dictionary Cost Figure 1: Toy example of our optimization problem for text compression. Three different solutions shown for representing the 8-word document D = manamana in terms of dictionary and pointers. Dictionary cost: number of characters in dictionary. Pointer cost: ? ? number of pointers. Costs given as dictionary cost + pointer cost. Left: dictionary cost only (? = 0). Right: expensive pointer cost (? = 8). Center: balance of dictionary and pointer costs (? = 1). has found the longest prefix matching a previously seen substring. It then outputs a pointer to that previous instance?we interpret this substring as a feature?and continues with the remaining input string (if no prefix matches, the single next character is output). This approach produces different feature sets depending on the order in which documents are concatenated. Even in small instances such as the 3-document collection {D1 = abcd, D2 = ceab, D3 = bce}, the order (D1 , D2 , D3 ) yields the feature set {ab, bc}, whereas (D2 , D3 , D1 ) results in {ce, ab} (plus, trivially, the set of all single characters). As we will demonstrate in our experiments section, this instability has a real impact on performance and is therefore undesirable. Our approach, like LZ77, seeks common substrings. However, our formulation is not affected by the concatenation order of corpus documents and does not suffer from LZ77?s instability issues. 3 Compressive Feature Learning The MDL principle implies that a good feature representation for a document D = x1 x2 . . . xn of n words minimizes some description length of D. Our dictionary-based compression scheme accomplishes this by representing D as a dictionary?a subset of D?s substrings?and a sequence of pointers indicating where copies of each dictionary element should be placed in order to fully reconstruct the document. The compressed representation is chosen so as to minimize the cost of storing each dictionary element in plaintext as well as all necessary pointers. This scheme achieves a shorter description length whenever it can reuse dictionary elements at different locations in D. For a concrete example, see Fig. 1, which shows three ways of representing a document D in terms of a dictionary and pointers. These representations are obtained by using the same pointer storage cost ? for each pointer and varying ?. The two extreme solutions focus on minimizing either the dictionary cost (? = 0) or the pointer cost (? = 8) solely, while the middle solution (? = 1) trades off between minimizing a combination of the two. We are particularly interested in this tradeoff: when all pointers have the same cost, the dictionary and pointer costs pull the solution in opposite directions. Varying ? allows us to ?interpolate? between the two extremes of minimum dictionary cost and minimum pointer cost. In other words, ? can be interpreted as tracing out a regularization path that allows a more flexible representation of D. To formalize our compression criterion, let S = { xi . . . xi+t?1 | 1 ? t ? k, 1 ? i ? n ? t + 1 } be the set of all unique k-grams in D, and P = { (s, l) | s = xl . . . xl+|s|?1 } be the set of all m = |P| (potential) pointers. Without loss of generality, we assume that P is an ordered set, i.e., each i ? {1, . . . , m} corresponds to a unique pi ? P, and we define J(s) ? {1, . . . , m} to be the set of indices of all pointers which share the same string s. Given a binary vector w ? {0, 1}m , w reconstructs word x j if for some wi = 1 the corresponding pointer pi = (s, l) satisfies l ? j < l + |s|. This notation uses wi to indicate whether pointer pi should be used to reconstruct (part of) D by pasting a copy of string s into location l. Finally, w reconstructs D if every x j is reconstructed by w. 3 Compressing D can be cast as a binary linear minimization problem over w; this bit vector tells us which pointers to use in the compressed representation of D and it implicitly defines the dictionary (a subset of S). In order to ensure that w reconstructs D, we require that Xw ? 1. Here X ? {0, 1}n?m indicates which words each wi = 1 can reconstruct: the i-th column of X is zero everywhere except for a contiguous sequence of ones corresponding to the words which wi = 1 reconstructs. Next, we assume the pointer storage cost of setting wi = 1 is given by di ? 0 and that the cost of storing any s ? S is c(s). Note that s must be stored in the dictionary if kwJ(s) k? = 1, i.e., some pointer using s is used in the compression of D. Putting everything together, our lossless compression criterion is minimize wT d + w X subject to Xw ? 1, w ? {0, 1}m . c(s)kwJ(s) k? (1) s?S Finally, multiple documents can be compressed jointly by concatenating them in any order into a large document and disallowing any pointers that span document boundaries. Since this objective is invariant to the document concatenating order, it does not suffer from the same problems as LZ77 (cf. Section 2). 4 Optimization Algorithm The binary constraint makes the problem in (1) non-convex. We solve it approximately via a series of related convex problems P(1) , P(2) , . . . that converge to a good optimum. Each P(i) relaxes the binary constraint to only require 0 ? w ? 1 and solves a weighted optimization problem minimize wT d?(i) + w X (i) c(s)kDJ(s)J(s) wJ(s) k? subject to Xw ? 1, 0 ? w ? 1. (2) s?S Here, D(i) is an m ? m diagonal matrix of positive weights and d?(i)n= D(i) d for brevity. We use an o (i+1) (i) (1) ?1 iterative reweighting scheme that uses D = I and D j j = max 1, (w j + ) , where w(i) is the solution to P(i) . This scheme is inspired by the iterative reweighting method of Cand`es et al. [5] for solving problems involving L0 regularization. At a high level, reweighting can be motivated by noting that (2) recovers the correct binary solution if  is sufficiently small and we use as weights a nearly binary solution to (1). Since we do not know the correct weights, we estimate them from our best guess to the solution of (1). In turn, D(i+1) punishes coefficients that were small in w(i) and, taken together with the constraint Xw ? 1, pushes the solution to be binary. ADMM Solution We demonstrate an efficient and parallel algorithm to solve (2) based on the Alternating Directions Method of Multipliers (ADMM) [2]. Problem (2) is a linear program solvable by a general purpose method in O(m3 ) time. However, if all potential dictionary elements are no longer than k words in length, we can use problem structure to achieve a run time of O(k2 n) per step of ADMM, i.e., linear in the document length. This is helpful because k is relatively small in most scenarios: long k-grams tend to appear only once and are not helpful for compression. Moreover, they are rarely used in NLP applications since the relevant signal is captured by smaller fragments. ADMM is an optimization framework that operates by splitting a problem into two subproblems that are individually easier to solve. It alternates solving the subproblems until they both agree on the solution, at which point the full optimization problem has been solved. More formally, the optimum of a convex function h(w) = f (w) + g(w) can be found by minimizing f (w) + g(z) subject to the constraint that w = z. ADMM acccomplishes this by operating on the augmented Lagrangian ? L? (w, z, y) = f (w) + g(z) + yT (w ? z) + kw ? zk22 . 2 (3) It minimizes L? with respect to w and z while maximizing with respect to dual variable y ? Rm in order to enforce the condition w = z. This minimization is accomplished by, at each step, solving for w, then z, then updating y according to [2]. These steps are repeated until convergence. 4 Dropping the D(i) superscripts for legibility, we can exploit problem structure by splitting (2) into f (w) = wT d? + X c(s)kDJ(s)J(s) wJ(s) k? + I+ (w), g(z) = I+ (Xz ? 1) (4) s?S where I+ (?) is 0 if its argument is non-negative and ? otherwise. We eliminated the w ? 1 constraint because it is unnecessary?any optimal solution will automatically satisfy it. Minimizing w The dual of this problem is a quadratic knapsack problem solvable in linear expected time [4], we provide a similar algorithm that solves the primal formulation. We solve for each wJ(s) separately since the optimization is separable in each block of variables. It can be shown  [21] that wJ(s) = 0 if kD?1 q k ? c(s), where qJ(s) = max ?zJ(s) ? d?J(s) ? yJ(s) , 0 and the J(s)J(s) J(s) 1 max operation is applied elementwise. Otherwise, wJ(s) is non-zero and the L? norm only affects the maximal coordinates of DJ(s)J(s) wJ(s) . For simplicity of exposition, we assume that the coefficients of wJ(s) are sorted in decreasing order according to DJ(s)J(s) qJ(s) , i.e., [DJ(s)J(s) qJ(s) ] j ? [DJ(s)J(s) qJ(s) ] j+1 . This is always possible by permuting coordinates. We show in [21] that, if DJ(s)J(s) wJ(s) has r maximal coordinates, then ) ?1 v=1 DJ(s)v J(s)v qJ(s)v ? c(s) . Pr ?2 v=1 DJ(s)v J(s)v Pr ( wJ(s) j = D?1 J(s) j J(s) j min DJ(s) j J(s) j qJ(s) j , (5) We can find r by searching for the smallest value of r for which exactly r coefficients in DJ(s)J(s) wJ (s) are maximal when determined by the formula above. As discussed in [21], an algorithm similar to the linear-time median-finding algorithm can be used to determine wJ(s) in linear expected time. Minimizing z Solving for z is tantamount to projecting a weighted combination of w and y onto the polyhderon given by Xz ? 1 and is best solved by taking the dual. It can be shown [21] that the dual optimization problem is minimize ? 1 T ? H? ? ?T (?1 ? X(y + ?w)) 2 subject to ? ? 0 (6) where ? ? Rn+ is a dual variable enforcing Xz ? 1 and H = XX T . Strong duality obtains and z can be recovered via z = ??1 (y + ?w + X T ?). The matrix H has special structure when S is a set of k-grams no longer than k words. In this case, [21] shows that H is a (k ? 1)?banded positive definite matrix so we can find its Cholesky decomposition in O(k2 n). We then use an active-set Newton method [12] to solve (6) quickly in approximately 5 Cholesky decompositions. A second important property of H is that, if N documents n1 , . . . , nN words long are compressed jointly and no k-gram spans two documents, then H is block-diagonal with block i an ni ? ni (k ? 1)?banded matrix. This allows us to solve (6) separately for each document. Since the majority of the time is spent solving for z, this property allows us to parallelize the algorithm and speed it up considerably. 5 Experiments 20 Newsgroups Dataset The majority of our experiments are performed on the 20 Newsgroups dataset [15, 22], a collection of about 19K messages approximately evenly split among 20 different newsgroups. Since each newsgroup discusses a different topic, some more closely related than others, we investigate our compressed features? ability to elucidate class structure in supervised and unsupervised learning scenarios. We use the ?by-date? 60%/40% training/testing split described in [22] for all classification tasks. This split makes our results comparable to the existing literature and makes the task more difficult by removing correlations from messages that are responses to one another. 5 Feature Extraction and Training We compute a bag-of-k-grams representation from a compressed document by counting the number of pointers that use each substring in the compressed version of the document. This method retrieves the canonical bag-of-k-grams representation when all pointers are used, i.e., w = 1. Our compression criterion therefore leads to a less redundant representation. Note that we extract features for a document corpus by compressing all of its documents jointly and then splitting into testing and training sets. Since this process involves no label information, it ensures that our estimate of testing error is unbiased. All experiments were limited to using 5-grams as features, i.e., k = 5 for our compression algorithm. Each substring?s dictionary cost was its word length and the pointer cost was uniformly set to 0 ? ? ? 5. We found that an overly large ? hurts accuracy more than an overly small value since the former produces long, infrequent substrings, while the latter tends to a unigram representation. It is also worthwhile to note that the storage cost (i.e., the value of the objective function) of the binary solution was never more than 1.006 times the storage cost of the relaxed solution, indicating that we consistently found a good local optimum. Finally, all classification tasks use an Elastic-Net?regularized logistic regression classifier implemented by glmnet [8]. Since this regularizer is a mix of L1 and L2 penalties, it is useful for feature selection but can also be used as a simple L2 ridge penalty. Before training, we normalize each document by its L1 norm and then normalize features by their standard deviation. We use this scheme so as to prevent overly long documents from dominating the feature normalization. LZ77 Order Sensitivity 0.08 Misclassification Error LZ77 Comparison Our first experiment demonstrates LZ77?s sensitivity to document ordering on a simple binary classification task of predicting whether a document is from the alt.atheism (A) or comp.graphics (G) newsgroup. Features were computed by concatenating documents in different orders: (1) by class, i.e., all documents in A before those in G, or G before A; (2) randomly; (3) by alternating the class every other document. Fig. 5 shows the testing error compared to features computed from our criterion. Error bars were estimated by bootstrapping the testing set 100 times, and all regularization parameters were chosen to minimize testing error while ? was fixed at 0.03. As predicted in Section 2, document ordering has a marked impact on performance, with the by-class and random orders performing significantly worse than the alternating ordering. Moreover, order invariance and the ability to tune the pointer cost lets our criterion select a better set of 5-grams. 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 AG GA Rand Alt Ours Figure 2: Misclassification error and standard error bars when classifying alt.atheism (A) vs. comp.graphics (G) from 20 Newsgroups. The four leftmost results are on features from running LZ77 on documents ordered by class (AG, GA), randomly (Rand), or by alternating classes (Alt); the rightmost is on our compressed features. PCA Next, we investigate our features in a typical exploratory analysis scenario: a researcher looking for interesting structure by plotting all pairs of the top 10 principal components of the data. In particular, we verify PCA?s ability to recover binary class structure for the A and G newsgroups, as well as multiclass structure for the A, comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware (PC), rec.motorcycles (M), sci.space (S), and talk.politics.mideast (PM) newsgroups. Fig. 3 plots the pair of principal components that best exemplifies class structure using (1) compressed features and (2) all 5-grams. For the sake of fairness, the components were picked by training a logistic regression on every pair of the top 10 principal components and selecting the pair with the lowest training error. In both the binary and multiclass scenarios, PCA is inundated by millions of features when using all 5-grams and cannot display good class structure. In contrast, compression reduces the feature set to tens of thousands (by two orders of magnitude) and clearly shows class structure. The star pattern of the five classes stands out even when class labels are hidden. 6 Figure 3: PCA plots for 20 Newsgroups. Left: alt.atheism (blue), comp.graphics (red). Right: alt.atheism (blue), comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware (green), rec.motorcycles (red), sci.space (cyan), talk.politics.mideast (magenta). Top: compressed features (our method). Bottom: all 5-grams. Table 1: Classification accuracy on the 20 Newsgroups and IMDb datasets Method Discriminative RBM [16] Bag-of-Words SVM [14, 20] Na??ve Bayes [17] Word Vectors [20] All 5-grams Compressed (our method) 20 Newsgroups 76.2 80.8 81.8 ? 82.8 83.0 IMDb ? 88.2 ? 88.9 90.6 90.4 Classification Tasks Table 1 compares the performance of compressed features with all 5-grams on two tasks: (1) categorizing posts from the 20 Newsgroups corpus into one of 20 classes; (2) categorizing movie reviews collected from IMDb [20] into one of two classes (there are 25,000 training and 25,000 testing examples evenly split between the classes). For completeness, we include comparisons with previous work for 20 Newsgroups [16, 14, 17] and IMDb [20]. All regularization parameters, including ?, were chosen through 10-fold cross validation on the training set. We also did not L1 -normalize documents in the binary task because it was found to be counterproductive on the training set. Our classification performance is state of the art in both tasks, with the compressed and all-5-gram features tied in performance. Since both datasets feature copious amounts of labeled data, we expect the 5-gram features to do well because of the power of the Elastic-Net regularizer. What is remarkable is that the compression retains useful features without using any label information. There are tens of millions of 5-grams, but compression reduces them to hundreds of thousands (by two orders of magnitude). This has a particularly noticeable impact on training time for the 20 Newsgroups dataset. Cross-validation takes 1 hour with compressed features and 8?16 hours for all 5-grams on our reference computer depending on the sparsity of the resulting classifier. Training-Set Size Our final experiment explores the impact of training-set size on binary-classification accuracy for the A vs. G and rec.sport.baseball (B) vs. rec.sport.hockey (H) newsgroups. Fig. 4 plots testing error as the amount of training data varies, comparing compressed features to full 7 Error on A vs. G Error on B vs. H 0.5 0.4 Compressed All 5-grams L2 0.3 All 5-grams EN Misclassification Error Misclassification Error 0.5 0.2 0.1 0 0 20 40 60 80 Percent of Training Data 0.4 Compressed All 5-grams L2 0.3 All 5-grams EN 0.2 0.1 0 100 (a) 0 20 40 60 80 Percent of Training Data 100 (b) Figure 4: Classification accuracy as the training set size varies for two classification tasks from 20 Newsgroups: (a) alt.atheism (A) vs. comp.graphics (G); (b) rec.sport.baseball (B) vs. rec.sport.hockey (H). To demonstrate the effects of feature selection, L2 indicates L2 -regularization while EN indicates elastic-net regularization. 5-grams; we explore the latter with and without feature selection enabled (i.e., Elastic Net vs. L2 regularizer). We resampled the training set 100 times for each training-set size and report the average accuracy. All regularization parameters were chosen to minimize the testing error (so as to eliminate effects from imperfect tuning) and ? = 0.03 in both tasks. For the A?G task, the compressed features require substantially less data than the full 5-grams to come close to their best testing error. The B?H task is harder and all three classifiers benefit from more training data, although the gap between compressed features and all 5-grams is widest when less than half of the training data is available. In all cases, the compressed features outperform the full 5-grams, indicating that that latter may benefit from even more training data. In future work it will be interesting to investigate the efficacy of compressed features on more intelligent sampling schemes such as active learning. 6 Discussion We develop a feature selection method for text based on lossless data compression. It is unsupervised and can thus be run as a task-independent, one-off preprocessing step on a corpus. Our method achieves state-of-the-art classification accuracy on two benchmark datasets despite selecting features without any knowledge of the class labels. In experiments comparing it to a full 5-gram model, our method reduces the feature-set size by two orders of magnitude and requires only a fraction of the time to train a classifier. It selects a compact feature set that can require significantly less training data and reveals unsupervised problem structure (e.g., when using PCA). Our compression scheme is more robust and less arbitrary compared to a setup which uses off-theshelf compression algorithms to extract features from a document corpus. At the same time, our method has increased flexibility since the target k-gram length is a tunable parameter. Importantly, the algorithm we present is based on iterative reweighting and ADMM and is fast enough?linear in the input size when k is fixed, and highly parallelizable?to allow for computing a regularization path of features by varying the pointer cost. Thus, we may adapt the compression to the data at hand and select features that better elucidate its structure. Finally, even though we focus on text data in this paper, our method is applicable to any sequential data where the sequence elements are drawn from a finite set (such as the universe of words in the case of text data). In future work we plan to compress click stream data from users browsing the Web. We also plan to experiment with approximate text representations obtained by making our criterion lossy. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Andrej Krevl, Jure Leskovec, and Julian McAuley for their thoughtful discussions and help with our paper. 8 References [1] D. Benedetto, E. Caglioti, and V. Loreto. Language trees and zipping. PRL, 88(4):048702, 2002. [2] S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, and J. Eckstein. Distributed optimization and statistical learning via the alternating direction method of multipliers. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 3(1):1? 122, 2011. [3] A. Bratko, B. Filipi?c, G. V. Cormack, T. R. Lynam, and B. Zupan. Spam filtering using statistical data compression models. JMLR, 7:2673?2698, 2006. [4] P. Brucker. An O(n) algorithm for quadratic knapsack problems. Operations Research Letters, 3(3):163? 166, 1984. [5] E. Cand`es, M. Wakin, and S. Boyd. Enhancing sparsity by reweighted `1 minimization. J Fourier Analysis and Applications, 14(5-6):877?905, 2008. [6] R. Cilibrasi and P. M. Vit?anyi. Clustering by compression. TIT, 51(4):1523?1545, 2005. [7] E. Frank, C. Chui, and I. Witten. Text categorization using compression models. Technical Report 00/02, University of Waikato, Department of Computer Science, 2000. [8] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent. J Stat Softw, 33(1):1?22, 2010. [9] E. Gabrilovich and S. Markovitch. Text categorization with many redundant features: Using aggressive feature selection to make SVMs competitive with C4.5. In ICML, 2004. [10] I. Guyon and A. Elisseeff. An introduction to variable and feature selection. JMLR, 3:1157?1182, 2003. [11] E. Keogh, S. Lonardi, and C. A. Ratanamahatana. Towards parameter-free data mining. In KDD, 2004. [12] D. Kim, S. Sra, and I. S. Dhillon. Tackling box-constrained optimization via a new projected quasi-newton approach. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 32(6):3548?3563, 2010. [13] V. Kuleshov. Fast algorithms for sparse principal component analysis based on Rayleigh quotient iteration. In ICML, 2013. [14] M. Lan, C. Tan, and H. Low. Proposing a new term weighting scheme for text categorization. In AAAI, 2006. [15] K. Lang. Newsweeder: Learning to filter netnews. In ICML, 1995. [16] H. Larochelle and Y. Bengio. Classification using discriminative restricted Boltzmann machines. In ICML, 2008. [17] B. Li and C. Vogel. Improving multiclass text classification with error-correcting output coding and sub-class partitions. In Can Conf Adv Art Int, 2010. [18] H. Liu and L. Yu. Toward integrating feature selection algorithms for classification and clustering. TKDE, 17(4):491?502, 2005. [19] T. Liu, S. Liu, Z. Chen, and W. Ma. An evaluation on feature selection for text clustering. In ICML, 2003. [20] A. Maas, R. Daly, P. Pham, D. Huang, A. Y. Ng, and C. Potts. Learning word vectors for sentiment analysis. In ACL, 2011. [21] H. S. Paskov, R. West, J. C. Mitchell, and T. J. Hastie. Supplementary material for Compressive Feature Learning, 2013. [22] J. Rennie. 20 Newsgroups dataset, 2008. http://qwone.com/?jason/20Newsgroups (accessed May 31, 2013). [23] J. Rissanen. Modeling by shortest data description. Automatica, 14(5):465?471, 1978. [24] D. Sculley and C. E. Brodley. Compression and machine learning: A new perspective on feature space vectors. In DCC, 2006. [25] R. Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 58(1):267?288, 1996. [26] Y. Yang and J. Pedersen. A comparative study on feature selection in text categorization. In ICML, 1997. [27] J. Zhu, S. Rosset, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. 1-norm support vector machines. In NIPS, 2004. [28] J. Ziv and A. Lempel. A universal algorithm for sequential data compression. TIT, 23(3):337?343, 1977. [29] H. Zou, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Sparse principal component analysis. JCGS, 15(2):265?286, 2006. 9
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Pass-Efficient Unsupervised Feature Selection Haim Schweitzer Department of Computer Science The University of Texas at Dallas [email protected] Crystal Maung Department of Computer Science The University of Texas at Dallas [email protected] Abstract The goal of unsupervised feature selection is to identify a small number of important features that can represent the data. We propose a new algorithm, a modification of the classical pivoted QR algorithm of Businger and Golub, that requires a small number of passes over the data. The improvements are based on two ideas: keeping track of multiple features in each pass, and skipping calculations that can be shown not to affect the final selection. Our algorithm selects the exact same features as the classical pivoted QR algorithm, and has the same favorable numerical stability. We describe experiments on real-world datasets which sometimes show improvements of several orders of magnitude over the classical algorithm. These results appear to be competitive with recently proposed randomized algorithms in terms of pass efficiency and run time. On the other hand, the randomized algorithms may produce more accurate features, at the cost of small probability of failure. 1 Introduction Work on unsupervised feature selection has received considerable attention. See, e.g., [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8] . In numerical linear algebra unsupervised feature selection is known as the column subset selection problem, where one attempts to identify a small subset of matrix columns that can approximate the entire column space of the matrix. See, e.g., [9, Chapter 12]. The distinction between supervised and unsupervised feature selection is as follows. In the supervised case one is given labeled objects as training data and features are selected to help predict that label; in the unsupervised case nothing is known about the labels. We describe an improvement to the classical Businger and Golub pivoted QR algorithm [9, 10]. We refer to the original algorithm as the QRP, and to our improved algorithm as the IQRP. The QRP selects features one by one, using k passes in order to select k features. In each pass the selected feature is the one that is the hardest to approximate by the previously selected features. We achieve improvements to the algorithm run time and pass efficiency without affecting the selection and the excellent numerical stability of the original algorithm. Our algorithm is deterministic, and runs in a small number of passes over the data. It is based on the following two ideas: 1. In each pass we identify multiple features that are hard to approximate with the previously selected features. A second selection step among these features uses an upper bound on unselected features that enables identifying multiple features that are guaranteed to have been selected by the QRP. See Section 4 for details. 2. Since the error of approximating a feature can only decrease when additional features are added to the selection, there is no need to evaluate candidates with error that is already ?too small?. This allows a significant reduction in the number of candidate features that need to be considered in each pass. See Section 4 for details. 1 2 Algorithms for unsupervised feature selection The algorithms that we consider take as input large matrices of numeric values. We denote by m the number of rows, by n the number of columns (features), and by k the number of features to be selected. Criteria for evaluating algorithms include their run time and memory requirements, the number of passes over the data, and the algorithm accuracy. The accuracy is a measure of the error of approximating the entire data matrix as a linear combination of the selection. We review some classical and recent algorithms for unsupervised feature selection. 2.1 Related work in numerical linear algebra Businger and Golub QRP was established by Businger and Golub [9, 10]. We discuss it in detail in Section 3. It requires k passes for selecting k features, and its run time is 4kmn ? 2k 2 (m + n) + 4k 3 /3. A recent study [11] compares experimentally the accuracy of the QRP as a feature selection algorithm to some recently proposed state-of-the-art algorithms. Even though the accuracy of the QRP is somewhat below the other algorithms, the results are quite similar. (The only exception was the performance on the Kahan matrix, where the QRP was much less accurate.) Gu and Eisenstat algorithm [1] was considered the most accurate prior to the work on randomized algorithms that had started with [12]. It computes an initial selection (typically by using the QRP), and then repeatedly swaps selected columns with unselected column. The swapping is done so that the product of singular values of the matrix formed by the selected columns is increased with each swapping. The algorithm requires random access memory, and it is not clear how to implement it by a series of passes over the data. Its run time is O(m2 n). 2.2 Randomized algorithms Randomized algorithms come with a small probability of failure, but otherwise appear to be more accurate than the classical deterministic algorithms. Frieze et al [12, 13] have proposed a randomized algorithm that requires only two passes over the data. This assumes that the norms of all matrix columns are known in advance, and guarantees only an additive approximation error. We discuss the run time and the accuracy of several generalizations that followed their studies. Volume sampling Deshpande et al [14] have studied a randomized algorithm that samples k-tuples of columns with probability proportional to their ?volume?. The volume is the square of the product of the singular values of the submatrix formed by these columns. They show that this sampling scheme gives rise to a randomized algorithm that computes the best possible solution in the Frobenius norm. They describe an efficient O(kmn) randomized algorithm that can be implemented in k passes and approximates this sampling scheme. These results were improved (in terms of accuracy) in [15], by computing the exact volume sampling. The resulting algorithm is slower but much more accurate. Further improvements to the speed of volume sampling in [6] have reduced the run time complexity to O(km2 n). As shown in [15, 6], this optimal (in terms of accuracy) algorithm can also be derandomized, with a deterministic run time of O(km3 n). Leverage sampling The idea behind leverage sampling is to randomly select features with probability proportional to their ?leverage?. Leverage values are norms of the rows of the n ? k right eigenvector matrix in the truncated SVD expansion of the data matrix. See [16, 2]. In particular, the ?two stage? algorithm described in [2] requires only 2 passes if the leverage values are known. Its run time is dominated by the calculation of the leverage values. To the best of our knowledge the currently best algorithms for estimating leverage values are randomized [17, 18]. One run takes 2 passes and O(mn log n + m3 ) time. This is dominated by the mn term, and [18] show that it can be further reduced to the number of nonzero values. We note that these algorithms do not compute reliable leverage in 2 passes, since they may fail at a relatively high (e.g., 1/3) probability. As stated in [18] ?the success probability can be amplified by independent repetition and taking the coordinate-wise median?. Therefore, accurate estimates of leverage can be computed in constant number of passes. But the constant would be larger than 2. 2 Input: The features (matrix columns) x1 , . . . , xn , and an integer k ? n. Output: An ordered list S of k indices. 1. In the initial pass compute: 1.1. For i = 1, . . . , n set x?i = xi , vi = |? xi |2 . (? xi is the error vector of approximating xi by a linear combination of the columns in S.) At the end of the pass set z1 = arg max vi , and initialize S = (z1 ). i 2. For each pass j = 2, . . . , k: 2.1. For i = 1, . . . , n set vi to the square error of approximating xi by a linear combination of the columns in S. At the end of pass j set zj = arg max vi , and add zj to S. i Figure 1: The main steps of the QRP algorithm. 2.3 Randomized ID In a recent survey [19] Halko et.al. describe how to compute QR factorization using their randomized Interpolative Decomposition. Their approach produces an accurate Q as a basis of the data matrix column space. They propose an efficient ?row extraction? method for computing R, that works when k, the desired rank, is similar to the rank of the data matrix. Otherwise the row extraction introduces unacceptable inaccuracies, which led Halko et.al to recommend using an alternative O(kmn) technique in such cases. 2.4 Our result, the complexity of the IQRP The savings that the IQRP achieves depend on the data. The algorithm takes as input an integer value l, the length of a temporary buffer. As explained in Section 4 our implementation requires temporary storage of l + 1, which takes (l + 1)m floats. The following values depend on the data: the number of passes p, the number of IO-passes q (explained below), and a unit cost of orthogonalization c (see Section 4.3). In terms of l and c the run time is 2mn + 4mnc + 4mlk. Our experiments show that for typical datasets the value of c is below k. For l ? k our experiments show that the number of passes is typically much smaller than k. The number of passes is even smaller if one considers IO-passes. To explain what we mean by IO-passes consider as an example a situation where the algorithm runs three passes over the data. In the first pass all n features are being accessed. In the second, only two features are being accessed. In the third, only one feature is being accessed. In this case we take the number of IO-passes to be q=1+ n3 . We believe that q is a relevant measure of the algorithm pass complexity when skipping is cheap, so that the cost of a pass over the data is the amount of data that needs to be read. 3 The Businger Golub algorithm (QRP) In this section we describe the QRP [9, 10] which forms the basis to the IQRP. The main steps are described in Figure 1. There are two standard implementations for Step 2.1 in Figure 1. The first is by means of the ?Modified Gram-Schmidt? (e.g., [9]), and the second is by Householder orthogonalization (e.g., [9]). Both methods require approximately the same number of flops, but error analysis (see [9]) shows that the Householder approach is significantly more stable. 3.1 Memory-efficient implementations The implementations shown in Figure 2 update the memory where the matrix A is stored. Specifically, A is overwritten by the R component of the QR factorization. Since we are not interested in R, overwriting A may not be acceptable. The procedure shown in Figure 3 does not overwrite A, but it is more costly. The flops count is dominated by Steps 1 and 2, which cost at most 4(j ? 1)mn at pass j. Summing up for j = 1, . . . , k this gives a total flops count of approximately 2k 2 mn flops. 3 Compute zj , qj , Qj for i = 1, . . . , n T 1. wi = qj?1 x ?i . 2. x ?i ? x ?i ? wi qj?1 . 3. vi ? vi ? wi2 . At the end of the pass: 4. zj = arg max vi . Compute zj , hj , Hj for i = 1, . . . , n 1. x ?i ? hj?1 x ?i . 2. wi = x ?i (j) (the j?th coordinate of x ?i ). 3. vi ? vi ? wi2 . At the end of the pass: 4. zj = arg max vi . 5. qj = xzj /|xzj |. 6. Qj = (Qj?1 , qj ). 5. Create the Householder matrix hj from x ?j . 6. Hj = Hj?1 hj . Modified Gram-Schmidt Householder orthogonalization i i Figure 2: Standard implementations of Step 2.1 of the QRP Compute zj , qj , Qj for i = 1, . . . , n 1. wi = QTj?1 xi . 2. vi = |xi |2 ? |wi |2 . At the end of the pass: 3. zj = arg max vi . Compute zj , hj , Hj for i = 1, . . . , n 1. yi = Hj?1 xi . Pm 2. vi = t=j+1 yi2 (t). At the end of the pass: 3. zj = arg max vi . 4. q?j = xzj ? Qj?1 wzj , qj = q?j /|? qj |. 5. Qj = (Qj?1 , qj ). 4. Create hj from yzj . 5. Hj = Hj?1 hj . Modified Gram-Schmidt Householder orthogonalization i i Figure 3: Memory-efficient implementations of Step 2.1 of the QRP 4 The IQRP algorithm In this section we describe our main result: the improved QRP. The algorithm maintains three ordered lists of columns: The list F is the input list containing all columns. The list S contains columns that have already been selected. The list L is of size l, where l is a user defined parameter. For each column xi in F the algorithm maintains an integer value ri and a real value vi . These values can be kept in core or a secondary memory. They are defined as follows: ri ? |S|, vi = vi (ri ) = kxi ? Qri QTri xi k2 (1) where Qri = (q1 , . . . , qri ) is an orthonormal basis to the first ri columns in S. Thus, vi (ri ) is the (squared) error of approximating xi with the first ri columns in S. In each pass the algorithm identifies the l candidate columns xi corresponding to the l largest values of vi (|S|). That is, the vi values are computed as the error of predicting each candidate by all columns currently in S. The identified l columns with the largest vi (|S|) are stored in the list L. In addition, the value of the l+1?th largest vi (|S|) is kept as the constant BF . Thus, after a pass is terminated the following condition holds: v? (r? ) ? BF for all x? ? F \ L. (2) The list L and the value BF can be calculated in one pass using a binary heap data structure, with the cost of at most n log(l + 1) comparisons. See [20, Chapter 9]. The main steps of the algorithm are described in Figure 4. Details of Steps 2.0, 2.1 of the IQRP. The threshold value T is defined by:  ?? if the heap is not full. T = top of the heap if the heap is full. 4 (3) Input: The matrix columns (features) x1 , . . . , xn , and an integer k ? n. Output: An ordered list S of k indices. 1. (The initial pass over F .) 1.0. Create a min-heap of size l+1. In one pass go over xi , i = 1, . . . , n: 1.1. Set vi (0) = |xi |2 , ri = 0. Fill the heap with the candidates corresponding to the l+1 largest vi (0). 1.2. At the end of the pass: Set BF to the value at the top of the heap. Set L to heap content excluding the top element. Add to S as many candidates from L as possible using BF . 2. Repeat until S has k candidates: 2.0. Create a min-heap of size l+1. Let T be defined by (3). In one pass go over xi , i = 1, . . . , n: 2.1. Skip xi if vi (ri ) ? T . Otherwise update vi , ri , heap. 2.2. At the end of the pass: Set BF = T . Set L to heap content excluding the top element. Add to S as many candidates from L as possible using BF . Figure 4: The main steps of the IQRP algorithm. Thus, when the heap is full, T is the value of v associated with the l+1?th largest candidate encountered so far. The details of Step 2.1 are shown in Figure 5. Step A.2.2.1 can be computed using either Gram-Schmidt or Householder, as shown in Figures 3 and 4. A.1. If vi (ri ) ? T skip xi . A.2. Otherwise check ri : A.2.1. If ri = |S| conditionally insert xi into the heap. A.2.2. If ri < |S|: A.2.2.1. Compute vi (|S|). Set ri = |S|. A.2.2.2. Conditionally insert xi into the heap. Figure 5: Details of Step 2.1 Details of Steps 1.2 and 2.2 of the IQRP. Here we are given the list L and the value of BF satisfying (2). To move candidates from L to S run the QRP on L as long as the pivot value is above BF . (The pivot value is the largest value of vi (|S|) in L.) The details are shown in Figure 6. B.1. z = arg max vi (|S|) i?L B.2. If vz (|S|) < BF , we are done exploiting L. B.3. Otherwise: B.3.1. Move z from L to S. B.3.2. Update the remaining candidates in L using either Gram-Schmidt or the Householder procedure. For example, with Householder: B.3.2.1. Create the Householder matrix hj from xz . B.3.2.2. for all x in L replace x with hj x. Figure 6: Details of Steps 1.2 and 2.2 5 4.1 Correctness In this section we show that the IQRP computes the same selection as the QRP. The proof is by induction on j, the number of columns in S. For j = 0 the QRP selects xj with vj = |xj |2 = max |xi |2 . The IQRP selects vj0 as the largest among the l largest values in F . Therei fore vj0 = maxxi ?L |xi |2 = maxxi ?F |xi |2 = vj . Now assume that for j = |S| the QRP and the IQRP select the same columns in S (this is the inductive assumption). Let vj (|S|) be the value of the j+1?th selection by the QRP, and let vj0 (|S|) be the value of the j+1?th selection by the IQRP. We need to show that vj0 (|S|) = vj (|S|). The QRP selection of j satisfies: vj (|S|) = maxxi ?F vi (|S|). Observe that if xi ? L then ri = |S|. (Initially L is created from the heap elements that have ri = |S|. Once S is increased in Step B.3.1 the columns in L are updated according to B.3.2 so that they all satisfy ri = |S|.) The IQRP selection satisfies: vj0 (|S|) = max vi (|S|) and vj0 (|S|) ? BF . (4) xi ?L Additionally for all x? ? F \ L: BF ? v? (r? ) ? v? (|S|). (5) This follows from (2), the observation that v? (r) is monotonically decreasing in r, and r? ? |S|. Therefore, combining (4), and (5) we get vj0 (|S|) = max vi (|S|) = vj (|S|). xi ?F This completes the proof by induction. 4.2 Termination To see that the algorithm terminates it is enough to observe that at least one column is selected in each pass. The condition at Step B.2 in Figure 6 cannot hold at the first time in a new L. The value of BF is the l+1 largest vi (|S|), while the maximum at B.1 is among the l largest vi (|S|). 4.3 Complexity The formulas in this section describe the complexity of the IQRP in terms of the following: n k p c m l q the number of features (matrix columns) the number of selected features number of passes a unit cost of orthogonalizing F the number of objects (matrix rows) user provided parameter. 1 ? l ? n number of IO-passes The value of c depends on the implementation of Step A.2.2.1 in Figure 5. We write cmemory for the value of c in the memory-efficient implementation, and cflops for the faster implementation (in terms of flops). We use the following notation. At pass j the number of selected columns is kj , and the number of columns that were not skipped in Step 2.1 of the IQRP (same as Step A.1) is nj . The number of flops in the memory-efficient implementation can be shown to be flopsmemory = 2mn + 4mnc + 4mlk, where c = j?1 p X nj X j=2 n kj 0 (6) j 0 =1 Observe that c ? k 2 /2, so that for l < n the worst case behavior is the same as the memoryoptimized QRP algorithm, which is O(k 2 mn). We show in Section 5 that the typical run time is much faster. In particular, the dependency on k appears to be linear and not quadratic. For the faster implementation that overwrites the input it can be shown that: flopstime = 2mn + 4m n X r?i , where r?i is the value of ri at termination. (7) i=1 Since r?i ? k ? 1 it follows that flopstime ? 4kmn. Thus, the worst case behavior is the same as the flops-efficient QRP algorithm. 6 Memory in the memory-efficient implementation requires km in-core floats, and additional memory for the heap, that can be reused for the list L. Additional memory to store and manipulate vi , ri for i = 1, . . . , n is roughly 2n floats. Observe that these memory locations are being accessed consecutively, and can be efficiently stored and manipulated out-of-core. The data itself, the matrix A, is stored out-of-core. When the method of Figure 3 is used in A.2.2.1, these matrix values are read-only. IO-passes. We wish to distinguish between a pass where the entire data is accessed and a pass where mostP of the data is skipped. Pp n This suggests the following definition for the number of IO-passes: n p q = j=1 nj = 1 + j=2 nj . Number of floating point comparisons. Testing for the skipping and manipulating the heap requires floating point comparisons. The number of comparisons is n(p ? 1 + (q ? 1) log2 (l + 1)). This does not affect the asymptotic complexity since the number of flops is much larger. 5 Experimental results We describe results on several commonly used datasets. ?Day1?, with m = 20, 000 and n = 3, 231, 957 is part of the ?URL reputation? collection at the UCI Repository. ?thrombin?, with m = 1, 909 and n = 139, 351 is the data used in KDD Cup 2001. ?Amazon?, with m = 1, 500 and n = 10, 000 is part of the ?Amazon Commerce reviews set? and was obtained from the UCI Repository. ?gisette?, with m = 6, 000 and n = 5, 000 was used in NIPS 2003 selection challenge. Measurements. We vary k, and report the following: flopsmemory , flopstime are the ratios between the number of flops used by the IQRP and kmn, for the memory-efficient orthogonalization and the time-efficient orthogonalization. # passes is the number of passes needed to select k features. # IO-passes is discussed in sections 2.4 and 4.3. It is the number of times that the entire data is read. Thus, the ratio between the number of IO-passes and the number of passes is the fraction of the data that was not skipped. Run time. The number of flops of the QRP is between 2kmn and 4kmn. We describe experiments with the list size l taken as l = k. For Day1 the number of flops beats the QRP by a factor of more than 100. For the other datasets the results are not as impressive. There are still significant savings for small and moderate values of k (say up to k = 600), but for larger values the savings are smaller. Most interesting is the observation that the memory-efficient implementation of Step 2.1 is not much slower than the optimization for time. Recall that the memory-optimized QRP is k times slower than the time-optimized QRP. In our experiments they differ by no more than a factor of 4. Number of passes. We describe experiments with the list size l taken as l = k, and also with l = 100 regardless of the value of k. The QRP takes k passes for selecting k features. For the Day1 dataset we observed a reduction by a factor of between 50 to 250 in the number of passes. For IO-passes, the reduction goes up to a factor of almost 1000. Similar improvements are observed for the Amazon and the gisette datasets. For the thrombin it is slightly worse, typically a reduction by a factor of about 70. The number of IO-passes is always significantly below the number of passes, giving a reduction by factors up to 1000. For the recommended setting of l = k we observed the following. In absolute terms the number of passes was below 10 for most of the data; the number of IO-passes was below 2 for most of the data. 6 Concluding remarks This paper describes a new algorithm for unsupervised feature selection. Based on the experiments we recommend using the memory-efficient implementation and setting the parameter l = k. As explained earlier the algorithm maintains 2 numbers for each column, and these can also be kept in-core. This gives a 2(km + n) memory footprint. Our experiments show that for typical datasets the number of passes is significantly smaller than k. In situations where memory can be skipped the notion of IO-passes may be more accurate than passes. IO-passes indicate the amount of data that was actually read and not skipped. 7 Day1, m = 20, 000, n = 3, 231, 957 ?10?2 flopsmemory flopstime 2 4 3 2 #passes #IO-passes 20 number of passes 3 flops/kmn #passes #IO-passes 5 number of passes 4 15 10 5 1 1 0 200 400 600 800 0 0 1,000 200 400 600 800 1,000 0 200 k (l = k) k (l = k) 400 600 800 1,000 800 1,000 k (l = 100) thrombin, m = 1, 909, n = 139, 351 flopsmemory flopstime #passes #IO-passes #passes #IO-passes 15 2 1 0 number of passes number of passes flops/kmn 3 10 5 200 400 600 800 1,000 20 0 0 0 40 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0 200 k (l = k) k (l = k) 400 600 k (l = 100) Amazon, m = 1, 500, n = 10, 000 flopsmemory flopstime number of passes 3 flops/kmn #passes #IO-passes 5 2 1 #passes #IO-passes 15 4 number of passes 4 3 2 10 5 1 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0 200 400 k (l = k) 600 800 1,000 0 200 k (l = k) 400 600 k (l = 100) gisette, m = 6, 000, n = 5, 000 3 flopsmemory flopstime #passes #IO-passes 5 2 1.5 1 4 3 2 #passes #IO-passes 15 number of passes number of passes flops/kmn 2.5 10 5 0.5 1 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0 200 400 k (l = k) 600 k (l = k) 800 1,000 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 k (l = 100) Figure 7: Results of applying the IQRP to several datasets with varying k, and l = k. The performance of the IQRP depends on the data. Therefore, the improvements that we observe can also be viewed as an indication that typical datasets are ?easy?. This appears to suggest that worst case analysis should not be considered as the only criterion for evaluating feature selection algorithms. Comparing the IQRP to the current state-of-the-art randomized algorithms that were reviewed in Section 2.2 we observe that the IQRP is competitive in terms of the number of passes and appears to outperform these algorithms in terms of the number of IO-passes. On the other hand, it may be less accurate. 8 References [1] M. Gu and S. C. Eisenstat. Efficient algorithms for computing a strong rank-revealing QR factorization. SIAM J. Computing, 17(4):848?869, 1996. [2] C. Boutsidis, M. W. Mahoney, and P. Drineas. An improved approximation algorithm for the column subset selection problem. In Claire Mathieu, editor, Proceedings of the Twentieth Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms, SODA 2009, New York, NY, USA, January 4-6, 2009, pages 968? 977. SIAM, 2009. [3] C. Boutsidis, P. Drineas, and M. Magdon-Ismail. Near-optimal column-based matrix reconstruction, February 2011. arXiv e-print (arXiv:1103.0995). [4] A. Dasgupta, P. Drineas, B. Harb, V. Josifovski, and M. W. Mahoney. Feature selection methods for text classification. In Pavel Berkhin, Rich Caruana, and Xindong Wu, editors, KDD, pages 230?239. ACM, 2007. [5] C. Boutsidis, P. Drineas, and M. Magdon-Ismail. Sparse features for PCA-like linear regression. In John Shawe-Taylor, Richard S. Zemel, Peter L. Bartlett, Fernando C. N. Pereira, and Kilian Q. Weinberger, editors, NIPS, pages 2285?2293, 2011. [6] V. Guruswami and A. K. Sinop. Optimal column-based low-rank matrix reconstruction. 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Woodruff. Fast approximation of matrix coherence and statistical leverage. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:3441?3472, 2012. [18] K. L. Clarkson and D. P. Woodruff. Low rank approximation and regression in input sparsity time. arXiv e-print (arXiv:1207.6365v4), April 2013. [19] N. Halko, P. G. Martinsson, and J. A. Tropp. Finding structure with randomness: Probabilistic algorithms for constructing approximate matrix decompositions. SIAM Review, 53(2):217?288, 2011. [20] T. H. Cormen, C. E. Leiserson, and R. L. Rivest. Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press and McGraw-Hill Book Company, third edition, 2009. 9
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Better Approximation and Faster Algorithm Using the Proximal Average Yaoliang Yu Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton AB T6G 2E8, Canada [email protected] Abstract It is a common practice to approximate ?complicated? functions with more friendly ones. In large-scale machine learning applications, nonsmooth losses/regularizers that entail great computational challenges are usually approximated by smooth functions. We re-examine this powerful methodology and point out a nonsmooth approximation which simply pretends the linearity of the proximal map. The new approximation is justified using a recent convex analysis tool? proximal average, and yields a novel proximal gradient algorithm that is strictly better than the one based on smoothing, without incurring any extra overhead. Numerical experiments conducted on two important applications, overlapping group lasso and graph-guided fused lasso, corroborate the theoretical claims. 1 Introduction In many scientific areas, an important methodology that has withstood the test of time is the approximation of ?complicated? functions by those that are easier to handle. For instance, Taylor?s expansion in calculus [1], essentially a polynomial approximation of differentiable functions, has fundamentally changed analysis, and mathematics more broadly. Approximations are also ubiquitous in optimization algorithms, e.g. various gradient-type algorithms approximate the objective function with a quadratic upper bound. In some (if not all) cases, there are multiple ways to make the approximation, and one usually has this freedom of choice. It is perhaps not hard to convince oneself that there is no approximation that would work best in all scenarios. And one would probably also agree that a specific form of approximation should be favored if it well suits our ultimate goal. Despite of all these common-sense, in optimization algorithms, the smooth approximations are still dominating, bypassing some recent advances on optimizing nonsmooth functions [2, 3]. Part of the reason, we believe, is the lack of new technical tools. We consider the composite minimization problem where the objective consists of a smooth loss function and a sum of nonsmooth functions. Such problems have received increasing attention due to the arise of structured sparsity [4], notably the overlapping group lasso [5], the graph-guided fused lasso [6] and some others. These structured regularizers, although greatly enhance our modeling capability, introduce significant new computational challenges as well. Popular gradient-type algorithms dealing with such composite problems include the generic subgradient method [7], (accelerated) proximal gradient (APG) [2, 3], and the smoothed accelerated proximal gradient (S-APG) [8]. The subgradient method is applicable to any nonsmooth function, although the convergence rate is rather slow. APG, being a recent advance, can handle simple functions [9] but for more complicated structured regularizers, an inner iterative procedure is needed, resulting in an overall convergence rate that could be as slow as the subgradient method [10]. Lastly, S-APG simply runs APG on a smooth approximation of the original objective, resulting in a much improved convergence rate. Our work is inspired by the recent advance on nonsmooth optimization [2, 3], of which the building block is the proximal map of the nonsmooth function. This proximal map is available in closed-form 1 for simple functions but can be quite expensive for more complicated functions such as a sum of nonsmooth functions we consider here. A key observation we make is that oftentimes the proximal map for each individual summand can be easily computed, therefore a bold idea is to simply use the sum of proximal maps, pretending that the proximal map is a linear operator. Somewhat surprisingly, this naive choice, when combined with APG, results in a novel proximal algorithm that is strictly better than S-APG, while keeping per-step complexity unchanged. We justify our method via a new tool from convex analysis?the proximal average [11]. In essence, instead of smoothing the nonsmooth function, we use a nonsmooth approximation whose proximal map is cheap to evaluate, after all this is all we need to run APG. We formally state our problem in Section 2, along with the proposed algorithm. After recalling the relevant tools from convex analysis in Section 3 we provide the theoretical justification of our method in Section 4. Related works are discussed in Section 5. We test the proposed algorithm in Section 6 and conclude in Section 7. 2 Problem Formulation We are interested in solving the following composite minimization problem: min `(x) + f?(x), x?Rd where f?(x) = K X ?k fk (x). (1) k=1 Here P ` is convex with L0 -Lipschitz continuous gradient w.r.t. the Euclidean norm k ? k, and ?k ? 0, k ?k = 1. The usual regularization constant that balances the two terms in (1) is absorbed into the loss `. For the functions fk , we assume Assumption 1. Each fk is convex and Mk -Lipschitz continuous w.r.t. the Euclidean norm k ? k. The abbreviation M 2 = PK k=1 ?k Mk2 is adopted throughout. We are interested in the general case where the functions fk need not be differentiable. As mentioned in the introduction, a generic scheme that solves (1) is the subgradient method [7], of which each step requires merely an arbitrary subgradient of the objective. With a suitable stepsize, the subgradient method converges1 in at most O(1/2 ) steps where  > 0 is the desired accuracy. Although being general, the subgradient method is exceedingly slow, making it unsuitable for many practical applications. Another recent algorithm for solving (1) is the (accelerated) proximal gradient (APG) [2, 3], of which each iteration needs to compute the proximal map of the nonsmooth part f? in (1): 1/L0 Pf? (x) = argmin L20 kx ? yk2 + f?(y). y (Recall that L0 is the Lipschitz constant of the gradient of the smooth part ` in (1).) Provided that the proximal map can be computed in constant time, it can be shown that APG converges within ? O(1/ ) complexity, significantly better than the subgradient method. For some simple functions, the proximal map indeed is available in closed-form, see [9] for a nice survey. However, for more complicated functions such as the one we consider here, the proximal map itself is expensive to compute and an inner iterative subroutine is required. Somewhat disappointingly, recent analysis has shown that such a two-loop procedure can be as slow as the subgradient method [10]. Yet another approach, popularized by Nesterov [8], is to approximate each nonsmooth component fk with a smooth function and then run APG. By carefully balancing the approximation and the convergence requirement of APG, p the smoothed accelerated proximal gradient (S-APG) proposed in [8] converges in at most O( 1/2 + 1/) steps, again much better than the subgradient method. The main point of this paper is to further improve S-APG, in perhaps a surprisingly simple way. The key assumption that we will exploit is the following: Assumption 2. Each proximal map P?fk can be computed ?easily? for any ? > 0. 1 In this paper we satisfy ourselves with convergence in terms of function values, although with additional assumptions/efforts it is possible to argue for convergence in terms of the iterates. 2 Algorithm 1: PA-APG. 1: Initialize x0 = y1 , ?, ?1 = 1. 2: for t = 1, 2, . . . do 3: zt = yP t ? ??`(yt ), 4: xt = k ?k ? P?fk (zt ), ? 1+ 1+4?t2 5: ?t+1 = , 2 ?t ?1 6: yt+1 = xt + ?t+1 (xt ? xt?1 ). 7: end for Algorithm 2: PA-PG. 1: Initialize x0 , ?. 2: for t = 1, 2, . . . do 3: 4: zt = xt?1 ? ??`(xt?1 ), P xt = k ?k ? P?fk (zt ). 5: end for We prefer to leave the exact meaning of ?easily? unspecified, but roughly speaking, the proximal map should be no more expensive than computing the gradient of the smooth part ` so that it does not become the bottleneck. Both Assumption 1 and Assumption 2 are satisfied in many important applications (examples will follow). As it will also become clear later, these assumptions are exactly those needed by S-APG. Unfortunately, in general, there is no known efficient way that reduces the proximal map of the average f? to the proximal maps of its individual components fk , therefore the fast scheme APG is not readily applicable. The main difficulty, of course, is due to the nonlinearity of the proximal map P?f , when treated as an operator on the function f . Despite of this fact, we will ?naively? pretend that the proximal map is linear and use ? P?f? ? K X ?k P?fk . (2) k=1 Under this approximation, the fast scheme APG can be applied. We give one particular realization (PA-APG) in Algorithm 1 based on the FISTA in [2]. A simpler (though slower) version (PA-PG) based on ISTA [2] is also provided in Algorithm 2. Clearly both algorithms are easily parallelizable if K is large. We remark that any other variation of APG, e.g. [8], is equally well applicable. Of course, when K = 1, our algorithm reduces to the corresponding APG scheme. At this point, one might be suspicious about the usefulness of the ?naive? approximation in (2). Before addressing this well-deserved question, let us first point out two important applications where Assumption 1 and Assumption 2 are naturally satisfied. Example 1 (Overlapping group lasso, [5]). In this example, fk (x) = kxgk k where gk is a group (subset) of variables and xg denotes a copy of x with all variables not contained in the group g set to 0. This group regularizer has been proven quite useful in high-dimensional statistics with the capability of selecting meaningful groups of features [5]. In the general case where the groups could overlap as needed, P?f? cannot be computed easily. Clearly each fk is convex and 1-Lipschitz continuous w.r.t. k ? k, i.e., Mk = 1 in Assumption 1. Moreover, the proximal map P?fk is simply a re-scaling of the variables in group gk , that is  xj , j 6? gk , (3) [P?fk (x)]j = (1 ? ?/kxgk k)+ xj , j ? gk where (?)+ = max{?, 0}. Therefore, both of our assumptions are met. Example 2 (Graph-guided fused lasso, [6]). This example is an enhanced version of the fused lasso [12], with some graph structure exploited to improve feature selection in biostatistic applications [6]. Specifically, given some graph whose nodes correspond to the feature variables, we let fij (x) = |xi ?Pxj | for every edge (i, j) ? E. P For a general graph, the proximal map of the regularizer f? = (i,j)?E ?ij fij , with ?ij ? 0, (i,j)?E ?ij = 1, is not easily computable. Similar as above, each fij is 1-Lipschitz continuous w.r.t. the Euclidean norm. Moreover, the proximal map P?fij is easy to compute:  xs , s 6? {i, j} ? [Pfij (x)]s = . (4) xs ? sign(xi ? xj ) min{?, |xi ? xj |/2}, s ? {i, j} Again, both our assumptions are satisfied. 3 Note that in both examples we could have incorporated weights into the component functions fk or fij , which amounts to changing ?k or ?ij accordingly. We also remark that there are other applications that fall into our consideration, but for illustration purposes we shall contend ourselves with the above two examples. More conveniently, both examples have been tried with S-APG [13], thus constitute a natural benchmark for our new algorithm. 3 Technical Tools To justify our new algorithm, we need a few technical tools from convex analysis [14]. Let our domain H be a real Hilbert space with the inner product h?, ?i and the induced norm k ? k. Denote ?0 as the set of all lower semicontinuous proper convex functions f : H ? R ? {?}. It is well-known that the Fenchel conjugation f ? (y) = sup hx, yi ? f (x) x ? ? is a bijection and involution on ?0 (i.e. (f ) = f ). For convenience, throughout we let q = 21 k ? k2 (q for ?quadratic?). Note that q is the only function which coincides with its Fenchel conjugate. Another convention that we borrow from convex analysis is to write (f ?)(x) = ?f (??1 x) for ? > 0. We easily verify (?f )? = f ? ? and also (f ?)? = ?f ? . For any f ? ?0 , we define its Moreau envelop (with parameter ? > 0) [14, 15] 1 M?f (x) = min 2? kx ? yk2 + f (y), y (5) and correspondingly the proximal map 1 kx ? yk2 + f (y). P?f (x) = argmin 2? (6) y Since f is closed convex and k ? k2 is strongly convex, the proximal map is well-defined and singlevalued. As mentioned before, the proximal map is the key component of fast schemes such as APG. We summarize some nice properties of the Moreau envelop and the proximal map as: Proposition 1. Let ?, ? > 0, f ? ?0 , and Id be the identity map, then i). M?f ? ?0 and (M?f )? = f ? + ?q; ii). M?f ? f , inf x M?f (x) = inf x f (x), and argminx M?f (x) = argminx f (x); iii). M?f is differentiable with ?M?f = 1 ? (Id ? P?f ); ? ?? ? iv). M??f = ?M?? f and P?f = Pf = (Pf ??1 )?; v). M?M? = Mf?+? and P?M? = f f 1/? ? ?+? Id + ?+? ? ; ?+? Pf 1/? vi). ?M?f + (Mf ? )? = q and P?f + (Pf ? )? = Id. i) is the well-known duality between infimal convolution and summation. ii), albeit being trivial, is the driving force behind the proximal point algorithm [16]. iii) justifies the ?niceness? of the Moreau envelop and connects it with the proximal map. iv) and v) follow from simple algebra. And lastly vi), known as Moreau?s identity [15], plays an important role in the early development of convex analysis. We remind that (M?f )? in general is different from M?f? . Fix ? > 0. Let SC? ? ?0 denote the class of ?-strongly convex functions, that is, functions f such that f ? ?q is convex. Similarly, let SS? ? ?0 denote the class of finite-valued functions whose gradient is ?-Lipschitz continuous (w.r.t. the norm k ? k). A well-known duality between strong convexity and smoothness is that for f ? ?0 , we have f ? SC? iff f ? ? SS1/? , cf. [17, Theorem 18.15]. Based on this duality, we have the next result which turns out to be critical. (Proof in Appendix A) Proposition 2. Fix ? > 0. The Moreau envelop map M? : ?0 ? SS1/? that sends f ? ?0 to M?f is bijective, increasing, and concave on any convex subset of ?0 (under the pointwise order). 4 It is clear that SS1/? is a convex subset of ?0 , which motivates the definition of the proximal PK P average?the key object to us. Fix constants ?k ? 0 with k=1 ?k = 1. Recall that f? = k ?k fk with each fk ? ?0 , i.e. f? is the convex combination of the component functions {fk } under the weight {?k }. Note that we always assume f? ? ?0 (the exception f? ? ? is clearly uninteresting). ? Definition 1 (Proximal Average, [11, 15]). Denote f = (f1 , . . . , fK ) and f ? = (f1? , . . . , fK ). The ? ? proximal average Af ,? , or simply A when the component functions and weights are clear from PK context, is the unique function h ? ?0 such that M?h = k=1 ?k M?fk . Indeed, the existence of the proximal average follows from the surjectivity of M? while the uniqueness follows from the injectivity of M? , both proven in Proposition 2. The main property of the proximal average, as seen from its definition, is that its Moreau envelop is the convex combination of the Moreau envelops of the component functions. By iii) of Proposition 1 we immediately obtain P?A? = K X ?k P?fk . (7) k=1 Recall that the right-hand side is exactly the approximation we employed in Section 2. Interestingly, using the properties we summarized in Proposition 1, one can show that the Fenchel conjugate of the proximal average, denoted as (A? )? , enjoys a similar property [11]: K K h i X X 1/? ?k (q ? ?M?fk ) ?k M?fk = M(A? )? ? = q ? ?M?A? = q ? ? = K X 1/? ?k [(Mf ? )?] = k=1 k=1 " # K X k k=1 1/? that is, M(A? f ,? ) ? = PK k=1 1/? ?k Mf ? ?, k k=1 1/? 1/? ?k Mf ? = M 1/? Af ? ,? k , therefore by the injective property established in Proposition 2: 1/? (A?f ,? )? = Af ? ,? . (8) From its definition it is also possible to derive an explicit formula for the proximal average (although for our purpose only the existence is needed): !? K K X ? ? X 1/? ? ? Af ,? = ?k Mfk ? ?q = ?k Mf ? ? q?, (9) k k=1 k=1 where the second equality is obtained by conjugating (8) and applying the first equality to the conjugate. By the concavity and monotonicity of M? , we have the inequality M?f? ? K X ?k M?fk = M?A? ?? f? ? A? . (10) k=1 The above results (after Definition 1) are due to [11], although our treatment is slightly different. It is well-known that as ? ? 0, M?f ? f pointwise [14], which, under the Lipschitz assumption, can be strengthened to uniform convergence (Proof in Appendix B): 2 Proposition 3. Under Assumption 1 we have 0 ? f? ? M?? ? ?M . A 2 For the proximal average, [11] showed that A? ? f? pointwise, which again can be strengthened to uniform convergence (proof follows from (10) and Proposition 3 since A? ? M?A? ): Proposition 4. Under Assumption 1 we have 0 ? f? ? A? ? ?M 2 2 . As it turns out, S-APG approximates the nonsmooth function f? with the smooth function M?A? while our algorithm operates on the nonsmooth approximation A? (note that it can be shown that A? is smooth iff some component fi is smooth). By (10) and ii) in Proposition 1 we have (11) M?? ? A? ? f?, A 5 ? = 0.5, ? =10 ? = 0.5, ? =5 10 ? = 0.5, ? =1 10 f1 f2 f? 8 10 f1 f2 f? 8 M f?? 6 M f?? 6 A? M f?? 6 A? 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 ?10 ?5 f1 f2 f? 8 0 5 0 ?10 10 ?5 0 5 0 ?10 10 A? ?5 0 5 10 Figure 1: See Example 3 for context. As predicted M?A? ? A? ? f?. Observe that the proximal average A? remains nondifferentiable at 0 while M?A? is smooth everywhere. For x ? 0, f1 = f2 = f? = A? (the red circled line), thus the proximal average A? is a strictly tighter approximation than smoothing. When ? is small (right panel), f? ? M?A? ? A? . meaning that the proximal average A? is a better under-approximation of f? than M?A? . Let us compare the proximal average A? with the smooth approximation M?A? on a 1-D example. Example 3. Let f1 (x) = |x|, f2 (x) = max{x, 0}. Clearly both are 1-Lipschitz continuous. Moreover, P?f1 (x) = sign(x)(|x| ? ?)+ , P?f2 (x) = (x ? ?)+ + x ? (x)+ , ? ( 2 ? x?0 ?0,2 x , |x| ? ? x M?f1 (x) = 2? , and M?f2 (x) = 2? , 0?x??. ? |x| ? ?/2, otherwise ?x ? ?/2, otherwise Finally, using (9) we obtain (with ?1 = ?, ?2 = 1 ? ?) ? ? x?0 ?x, ? ? x2 A (x) = 1?? 2? , (? ? 1)? ? x ? 0 . ? ???x ? (1 ? ?) ?? , x ? (? ? 1)? 2 Figure 1 depicts the case ? = 0.5 with different values of the smoothing parameter ?. 4 Theoretical Justification Given our development in the previous section, it is now clear that our proposed algorithm aims at solving the approximation min `(x) + A? (x). (12) x The next important piece is to show how a careful choice of ? would lead to a strictly better convergence rate than S-APG. Recall that using APG to slove (12) requires computing the following proximal map in each iteration: 1/L PA? 0 (x) = argmin L20 kx ? yk2 + A? (y), y which, unfortunately, is not yet amenable to efficient computation, due to the mismatch of the constants 1/L0 and ? (recall that in the decomposition (7) the superscript and subscript must both be ?). 1/L In general, there is no known explicit formula that would reduce Pf 0 to P?f for different positive constants L0 and ? [17, p. 338], see also iv) in Proposition 1. Our fix is almost trivial: If necessary, we use a bigger Lipschitz constant L0 = 1/? so that we can compute the proximal map easily. This is indeed legitimate since L0 -Lipschitz implies L-Lipschitz for any L ? L0 . Said differently, all we need is to tune down the stepsize a little bit in APG. We state formally the convergence property of our algorithm as (Proof in Appendix C): 2 Theorem 1. Fix q the accuracy  > 0. Under Assumption 1 and the choice ? = min{1/L0 , 2/ M }, 2 after at most ? kx0 ? xk steps, the output of Algorithm 1, say x ?, satisfies `(? x) + f?(? x) ? `(x) + f?(x) + 2. The same guarantee holds for Algorithm 2 after at most 6 1 2? kx0 ? xk2 steps. 1/L ? 0 Note that pif we could reduce PA? efficiently to PA? , we would end up with the optimal (overall) rate O( 1/), even though we approximate the nonsmooth function f? by the proximal average A? . In other words, approximation itself does not lead to an inferior rate. It is our incapability to (efficiently) relate proximal maps that leads to the sacrifice in convergence rates. 5 Discussions To ease our discussion with related works, let us first point out a fact that is not always explicitly recognized, that is, S-APG essentially relies on approximating the nonsmooth function f? with M?A? . Indeed, consider first the case K = 1. The smoothing idea introduced in [8] purports the superficial max-structure assumption, that is, f (x) = maxy?C hx, yi ? h(y) where C is some bounded convex set and h ? ?0 . As it is well-known (also easily verified from definition), f ? ?0 is M -Lipschitz continuous (w.r.t. the norm k ? k) iff dom f ? ? Bk?k (0, M ), the ball centered at the origin with radius M . Thus the function f ? ?0 admits the max-structure iff it is Lipschitz continuous, i.e., satisfying our Assumption 1, in which case h = f ? and C = dom f ? . [8] proceeded to add some ?distance? function d to obtain the approximation f? (x) = maxy?C hx, yi ? f ? (y) ? ?d(y). For simplicity, we will only consider d = q, thus f? = (f ? + ?q)? = M?f . The other assumption of S-APG [8] is that f? and the maximizer in its expression can be easily computed, which is precisely our Assumption 2. Finally for the general case where f? is an average of K nonsmooth functions, the smoothing technique is applied in a component by component way, i.e., approximate f? with M?A? . Forqcomparison, let us recall that S-APG finds a 2 accurate solution in at most p O( L0 + M 2 /(2) 1/) steps since the Lipschitz constant of the gradient of ` + M?A? is upper bounded byqL0 + M 2 /(2) (under the choice of ? in Theorem 1). This is strictly worse than the p complexity O( max{L0 , M 2 /(2)} 1/) of our approach. In other words, we have managed to remove the secondary term in the complexity bound of S-APG. We should emphasize that this strict improvement is obtained under exactly the same assumptions and with an algorithm as simple (if not simpler) as S-APG. In some sense it is quite remarkable that the seemingly ?naive? approximation that pretends the linearity of the proximal map not only can be justified but also leads to a strictly better result. Let us further explain how the improvement is possible. As mentioned, S-APG approximates f? with the smooth function M?A? . This smooth approximation is beneficial if our capability is limited to smooth functions. Put differently, S-APG implicitly treats applying the fast gradient algorithms as the ultimate goal. However, the recent advances on nonsmooth optimization have broadened the range of fast schemes: It is not smoothness but the proximal map that allows fast convergence. Just as how APG improves upon the subgradient method, our approach, with the ultimate goal to enable efficient computation of the proximal map, improves upon S-APG. Another lesson we wish to point out is that unnecessary ?over-smoothing?, as in S-APG, does hurt the performance since it always increases the Lipschitz constant. To summarize, smoothing is not free and it should be used when truly needed. Lastly, we note that our algorithm shares some similarity with forward-backward splitting procedures and alternating direction methods [9, 18, 19], although a detailed examination will not be given here. Due to space limits, we refer further extensions and improvements to [20, Chapter 3]. 6 Experiments We compare the proposed algorithm with S-APG on two important problems: overlapping group lasso and graph-guided fused lasso. See Example 1 and Example 2 for details about the nonsmooth function f?. We note that S-APG has been demonstrated with superior performance on both problems in [13], therefore we will only concentrate on comparing with it. Bear in mind that the purpose of our experiment is to verify the theoretical improvement as discussed in Section 5. We are not interested in fine tuning parameters here (despite its practical importance), thus for a fair comparison, we use the same desired accuracy , Lipschitz constant L0 and other parameters for all methods. Since both our method and S-APG have the same per-step complexity, we will simply run them for a maximum number of iterations (after which saturation is observed) and report all the intermediate objective values. 7 2? = 2/L0 5 4 3 10 PA?PG S?PG PA?APG S?APG 4 10 3 10 2 10 2 2 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 0 10 0 0 50 100 150 10 PA?PG S?PG PA?APG S?APG 4 10 3 10 10 2? = 0.5/L0 5 10 PA?PG S?PG PA?APG S?APG 10 10 2? = 1/L0 5 10 0 0 50 100 150 10 0 50 100 150 Figure 2: Objective value vs. iteration on overlapping group lasso. 2? = 2/L0 3 2 1 10 PA?PG S?PG PA?APG S?APG 2 10 1 10 0 10 0 0 10 ?1 10 ?1 0 20 40 60 80 100 10 PA?PG S?PG PA?APG S?APG 2 10 1 10 10 2? = 0.5/L0 3 10 PA?PG S?PG PA?APG S?APG 10 10 2? = 1/L0 3 10 0 ?1 20 40 60 80 100 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Figure 3: Objective value vs. iteration on graph-guided fused lasso. Overlapping Group Lasso: Following [13] we generate the data as follows: We set `(x) = 1 2 n?d whose entries are sampled from i.i.d. normal distributions, 2?K kAx ? bk where A ? R j xj = (?1) exp(?(j ? 1)/100), and b = Ax + ? with the noise ? sampled from zero mean and unit variance normal distribution. Finally, the groups in the regularizer f? are defined as {{1, . . . , 100}, {91, . . . , 190}, . . . , {d ? 99, . . . , d}}, where d = 90K + 10. That is, there are K groups, each containing 100 variables, and the groups overlap by 10 consecutive variables. We adopt the uniform weight ?k = 1/K and set ? = K/5. Figure 2 shows the results for n = 5000 and K = 50, with three different accuracy parameters. For completeness, we also include the results for the non-accelerated versions (PA-PG and S-PG). Clearly, accelerated algorithms are much faster than their non-accelerated cousins. Observe that our algorithms (PA-APG and PA-PG) converge consistently faster than S-APG and S-PG, respectively, with a big margin in the favorable case (middle panel). Again we emphasize that this improvement is achieved without any overhead. Graph-guided Fused Lasso: We generate ` similarly as above. Following [13], the graph edges E are obtained by thresholding the correlation matrix. The case n = 5000, d = 1000, ? = 15 is shown in Figure 3, under three different desired accuracies. Again, we observe that accelerated algorithms are faster than non-accelerated versions and our algorithms consistently converge faster. 7 Conclusions We have considered the composite minimization problem which consists of a smooth loss and a sum of nonsmooth regularizers. Different from smoothing, we considered a seemingly naive nonsmooth approximation which simply pretends the linearity of the proximal map. Based on the proximal average, a new tool from convex analysis, we proved that the new approximation leads to a novel algorithm that strictly improves the state-of-the-art. Experiments on both overlapping group lasso and graph-guided fused lasso verified the superiority of the proposed method. An interesting question arose from this work, also under our current investigation, is in what sense certain approximation is optimal? We also plan to apply our algorithm to other practical problems. Acknowledgement The author thanks Bob Williamson and Xinhua Zhang from NICTA?Canberra for their hospitality during the author?s visit when this work was performed; Warren Hare and Yves Lucet from UBC? Okanagan for drawing his attention to the proximal average; and the reviewers for their valuable comments. 8 References [1] Walter Rudin. Principles of mathematical analysis. McGraw-Hill, 3rd edition, 1976. [2] Amir Beck and Marc Teboulle. A fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm for linear inverse problems. SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 2(1):183?202, 2009. [3] Yurii Nesterov. Gradient methods for minimizing composite functions. Mathematical Programming, Series B, 140:125?161, 2013. [4] Francis Bach, Rodolphe Jenatton, Julien Mairal, and Guillaume Obozinski. Structured sparsity through convex optimization. Statistical Science, 27(4):450?468, 2012. [5] Peng Zhao, Guilherme Rocha, and Bin Yu. The composite absolute penalties family for grouped and hierarchical variable selection. Annals of Statistics, 37(6A):3468?3497, 2009. [6] Seyoung Kim and Eric P. Xing. Statistical estimation of correlated genome associations to a quantitative trait network. PLoS Genetics, 5(8):1?18, 2009. [7] Naum Z. Shor. Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions. Springer, 1985. [8] Yurii Nesterov. Smooth minimization of non-smooth functions. Mathematical Programming, 103(1):127?152, 2005. [9] Patrick L. Combettes and Jean-Christophe Pesquet. Proximal splitting methods in signal processing. In Fixed-Point Algorithms for Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering, pages 185?212. Springer, 2011. [10] Silvia Villa, Saverio Salzo, Luca Baldassarre, and Alessandro Verri. Accelerated and inexact forward-backward algorithms. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 23(3):1607?1633, 2013. [11] Heinz H. Bauschke, Rafal Goebel, Yves Lucet, and Xianfu Wang. The proximal average: Basic theory. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 19(2):766?785, 2008. [12] Robert Tibshirani, Michael Saunders, Saharon Rosset, Ji Zhu, and Keith Knight. Sparsity and smoothness via the fused lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 67:91?108, 2005. [13] Xi Chen, Qihan Lin, Seyoung Kim, Jaime G. Carbonell, and Eric P. Xing. Smoothing proximal gradient method for general structured sparse regression. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 6 (2):719?752, 2012. [14] Ralph Tyrell Rockafellar and Roger J-B Wets. Variational Analysis. Springer, 1998. [15] Jean J. Moreau. Proximit?e et dualtit?e dans un espace Hilbertien. Bulletin de la Soci?et?e Math?ematique de France, 93:273?299, 1965. [16] Ralph Tyrrell Rockafellar. Monotone operators and the proximal point algorithm. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 14(5):877?898, 1976. [17] Heinz H. Bauschke and Patrick L. Combettes. Convex Analysis and Monotone Operator Theory in Hilbert Spaces. Springer, 1st edition, 2011. [18] Hua Ouyang, Niao He, Long Q. Tran, and Alexander Gray. Stochastic alternating direction method of multipliers. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [19] Taiji Suzuki. Dual averaging and proximal gradient descent for online alternating direction multiplier method. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [20] Yaoliang Yu. Fast Gradient Algorithms for Stuctured Sparsity. PhD thesis, University of Alberta, 2013. 9
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Polar Operators for Structured Sparse Estimation Xinhua Zhang Machine Learning Research Group National ICT Australia and ANU [email protected] Yaoliang Yu and Dale Schuurmans Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E8, Canada {yaoliang,dale}@cs.ualberta.ca Abstract Structured sparse estimation has become an important technique in many areas of data analysis. Unfortunately, these estimators normally create computational difficulties that entail sophisticated algorithms. Our first contribution is to uncover a rich class of structured sparse regularizers whose polar operator can be evaluated efficiently. With such an operator, a simple conditional gradient method can then be developed that, when combined with smoothing and local optimization, significantly reduces training time vs. the state of the art. We also demonstrate a new reduction of polar to proximal maps that enables more efficient latent fused lasso. 1 Introduction Sparsity is an important concept in high-dimensional statistics [1] and signal processing [2] that has led to important application successes by reducing model complexity and improving interpretability of the results. Standard computational strategies such as greedy feature selection [3] and generic convex optimization [4?7] can be used to implement simple sparse estimators. However, sophisticated notions of structured sparsity have been recently developed that can encode combinatorial patterns over variable subsets [8]. Although combinatorial structure greatly enhances modeling capability, it also creates computational challenges that require sophisticated optimization approaches. For example, current structured sparse estimators often adopt an accelerated proximal gradient (APG) strategy [9, 10], which has a low per-step complexity and enjoys an optimal convergence rate among black-box first-order procedures [10]. Unfortunately, APG must also compute a proximal update (PU) of the nonsmooth regularizer during each iteration. Not only does the PU require a highly nontrivial computation for structured regularizers [4]?e.g., requiring tailored network flow algorithms in existing cases [5, 11, 12]?it yields dense intermediate iterates. Recently, [6] has demonstrated a class of regularizers where the corresponding PUs can be computed by a sequence of submodular function minimizations, but such an approach remains expensive. Instead, in this paper, we demonstrate that an alternative approach can be more effective for many structured regularizers. We base our development on the generalized conditional gradient (GCG) algorithm [13, 14], which also demonstrates promise for sparse model optimization. Although GCG possesses a slower convergence rate than APG, it demonstrates competitive performance if its updates are interleaved with local optimization [14?16]. Moreover, GCG produces sparse intermediate iterates, which allows additional sparsity control. Importantly, unlike APG, GCG requires computing the polar of the regularizer, instead of the PU, in each step. This difference allows important new approaches for characterizing and evaluating structured sparse regularizers. Our first main contribution is to characterize a rich class of structured sparse regularizers that allow efficient computation of their polar operator. In particular, motivated by [6], we consider a family of structured sparse regularizers induced by a cost function on variable subsets. By introducing a ?lifting? construction, we show how these regularizers can be expressed as linear functions, which after some reformulation, allows efficient evaluation by a simple linear program (LP). Important examples covered include overlapping group lasso [5] and path regularization in directed acyclic graphs [12]. By exploiting additional structure in these cases, the LP can be reduced to a piecewise 1 linear objective over a simple domain, allowing further reduction in computation time via smoothing [17]. For example, for the overlapping group lasso with n groups where each variable belongs ? to at most r groups, the cost of evaluating the polar operator can be reduced from O(rn3 ) to O(rn n/) for a desired accuracy of . Encouraged by the superior performance of GCG in these cases, we then provide a simple reduction of the polar operator to the PU. This reduction makes it possible to extend GCG to cases where the PU is easy to compute. To illustrate the usefulness of this reduction we provide an efficient new algorithm for solving the fused latent lasso [18]. 2 Structured Sparse Models Consider the standard regularized risk minimization framework minn f (w) + ? ?(w), (1) w?R where f is the empirical risk, assumed to be convex with a Lipschitz continuous gradient, and ? is a convex, positively homogeneous regularizer, i.e. a gauge [19, ?4]. Let 2[n] denote the power set of [n] := {1, . . . , n}, and let R+ := R+ ? {?}. Recently, [6] has established a principled method for deriving regularizers from a subset cost function F : 2[n] ? R+ based on defining the gauge:  p ?F (w) = inf{? ? 0 : w ? ? conv(SF )}, where SF = wA : kwA kp? = 1/F (A), ? = 6 A ? [n] . (2) Here ? is a scalar, conv(SF ) denotes the convex hull of the set SF , p?, p ? 1 with p1? + p1 = 1, k ? kp throughout is the usual `p -norm, and wA denotes a duplicate of w with all coordinates not in A set to 0. Note that we have tacitly assumed F (A) = 0 iff A = ? in (2). The gauge ?F defined in (2) is also known as the atomic norm with the set of atoms SF [20]. It will be useful to recall that the polar of a gauge ? is defined by [19, ?15]: ?? (g) := supw {hg, wi : ?(w) ? 1}. (3) In particular, the polar of a norm is its dual norm. (Recall that any norm is also a gauge.) For the specific gauge ?F defined in (2), its polar is simply the support function of SF [19, Theorem 13.2]: ??F (g) = max hg, wi = max kgA kp /[F (A)]1/p . w?SF (4) ?6=A?[n] (The first equality uses the definition of support function, and the second follows from (2).) By varying p? and F , one can generate a class of sparsity inducing regularizers that includes most current proposals [6]. For instance, if F (A) = 1 whenever |A| (the cardinality of A) is 1, and F (A) = ? for |A| > 1, then ??F is the `? norm and ?F is the usual `1 norm. More importantly, one can encode structural information through the cost function F , which selects and establishes preferences over the set of atoms SF . As pointed out in [6], when F is submodular, (4) can be evaluated by a secant method with submodular minimizations ([21, ?8.4], see also Appendix B). However, as we will show, it is possible to do significantly better by completely avoiding submodular optimization. Before presenting our main results, we first review the state of the art for solving (1), and demonstrate how the performance of current methods can hinge on efficient computation of (4). 2.1 Optimization Algorithms A standard approach for minimizing (1) is the accelerated proximal gradient (APG) algorithm [9, 10], where each iteration involves solving the proximal update (PU): wk+1 = arg minw hdk , wi + 1 2 and descent direction dk . Although it can be 2sk kw ? wk k2 + ??F (w), for some step size sk ? shown that APG finds an  accurate solution in O(1/ ) iterations [9, 10], each update can be quite difficult to compute when ?F encodes combinatorial structure, as noted in the introduction. An alternative approach to solving (1) is the generalized conditional gradient (GCG) method [13, 14], which has recently received renewed attention. Unlike APG, GCG only requires the polar operator of the regularizer ?F to be computed in each iteration, given by the argument of (4): P?F (g) = arg max hg, wi = F (C) w?SF ?1 p p arg max hgC , wi for C = arg max kgA kp /F (A). (5) w:kwkp?=1 ?6=A?[n] Algorithm 1 outlines a GCG procedure for solving (1) that only requires the evaluation of P?F in each iteration without needing the full PU to be computed. The algorithm is quite simple: Line 3 2 Algorithm 1 Generalized conditional gradient (GCG) for optimizing (1). 1: Initialize w0 ? 0, s0 ? 0, `0 ? 0. 2: for k = 0, 1, . . . do 3: Polar operator: vk ? P?F (gk ), Ak ? C(gk ), where gk = ??f (wk ) and C is defined in (5). 4: 2-D Conic search: (?, ?) := arg min??0,??0 f (?wk + ?vk ) + ?(?sk + ?). P P 1 5: Local re-optimization: {ui }k1 := arg min{ui =uiA } f ( i ui ) + ? i F (Ai ) p kui kp? i 6: wk+1 7: end for where the {ui } are initialized by ui = ?`i for i < k and ui = ?vi for i = k. P i P 1 ? i u , `i ? ui for i ? k, sk+1 ? i F (Ai ) p kui kp?. evaluates the polar operator, which provides a descent direction vk ; Line 4 finds the optimal step sizes for combining the current iterate wk with the direction vk ; and Line 5 locally improves the objective (1) by maintaining the same support patterns but re-optimizing the parameters. It has been shown that GCG can find an  accurate solution to (1) in O(1/) steps, provided only that the polar (5) is computed to  accuracy [14]. Although GCG has a slower theoretical convergence rate than APG, the introduction of local optimization (Line 5) often yields faster convergence in practice [14? 16]. Importantly, Line 5 does not increase the sparsity of the intermediate iterates. Our main goal in this paper therefore is to extend this GCG approach to structured sparse models by developing efficient algorithms for computing the polar operator for the structured regularizers defined in (2). 3 Polar Operators for Atomic Norms Let 1 denote the vector of all 1s with length determined by context. Our first main contribution is to develop a general class of atomic norm regularizers whose polar operator (5) can be computed efficiently. To begin, consider the case of a (partially) linear function F where there exists a c ? Rn such that F (A) = hc, 1A i for all A ? dom F (note that the domain need not be a lattice). A few useful regularizers can be generated by linear functions: for example, the `1 norm can be derived from F (A) = h1, 1A i for |A| = 1, which is linear. Unfortunately, linearity is too restrictive to capture most structured regularizers of interest, therefore we will need to expand the space of functions F we consider. To do so, we introduce the more general class of marginalized linear functions: we say that F is marginalized linear if there exists a nonnegative linear function M on an extended domain 2[n+l] such that its marginalization to 2[n] is exactly F : F (A) = min M (B), ? A ? [n]. (6) B:A?B?[n+l] Essentially, such a function F is ?lifted? to a larger domain where it becomes linear. The key question is whether the polar ??F can be efficiently evaluated for such functions. To develop an efficient procedure for computing the polar ??F , first consider the simpler case of computing the polar ??M for a nonnegative linear function M . Note that by linearity the function M n+l can be expressed as M (B) = hb, 1B i for B ? dom M ? 2[n+l] (b ? R+ ). Since the effective domain of M need not be the whole space in general, we make use of the specialized polytope: P := conv{1B : B ? dom M } ? [0, 1]n+l . (7) Note P may have exponentially many faces. From the definition (4) one can then re-express the polar ??M as:  1/p h? g, wi ??M (g) = max kgB kp /M (B)1/p = max where g?i = |gi |p ?i, (8) 06=w?P hb, wi ?6=B?dom M where we have used the fact that the linear-fractional objective must attain its maximum at vertices of P ; that is, at 1B for some B ? dom M . Although the linear-fractional program (8) can be reduced to a sequence of LPs using the classical method of [22], a single LP suffices for our purposes. Indeed, let us first remove the constraint w 6= 0 by considering the alternative polytope: Q := P ? {w ? Rn+l : h1, wi ? 1}. (9) As shown in Appendix A, all vertices of Q are scalar multiples of the nonzero vertices of P . Since the objective in (8) is scale invariant, we can restrict the constraints to w ? Q. Then, by applying ? = w/ hb, wi, ? = 1/ hb, wi, problem (8) can be equivalently re-expressed by: transformations w ? , subject to w ? ? ?Q, hb, wi ? = 1. max h? g, wi (10) ? w,?>0 3 Of course, whether this LP can be solved efficiently depends on the structure of Q (and of P indeed). Finally, we note that the same formulation allows the polar to be efficiently computed for a marginalized linear function F via a simple reduction: Consider any g ? Rn and let [g; 0] ? Rn+l denote g padded by l zeros. Then ??F (g) = ??M ([g; 0]) for all g ? Rn because p max kgA kp ?6=A?[n] F (A) p = max ?6=A?[n] p kgA kp minB:A?B?[n+l] M (B) = max ?6=A?B kgA kp M (B) p = max k[g; 0]B kp B:?6=B?[n+l] M (B) . (11) To see the last equality, fixing B the optimal A is attained at A = B ? [n]. If B ? [n] is empty, then k[g; 0]B k = 0 and the corresponding B cannot be the maximizer of the last term, unless ??F (g) = 0 in which case it is easy to see ??M ([g; 0]) = 0. Although we have kept our development general so far, the idea is clear: once an appropriate ?lifting? has been found so that the polytope Q in (9) can be compactly represented, the polar (5) can be reformulated as the LP (10), for which efficient implementations can be sought. We now demonstrate this new methodology for the two important structured regularizers: group sparsity and path coding. 3.1 Group Sparsity For a general formulation of group sparsity, let G ? 2[n] be a set of variable groups (subsets) that possibly overlap [3, 6, 7]. Here we use i ? [n] to index variables and G ? G to index groups. Consider the cost function over variable groups Fg : 2[n] ? R+ defined by: X Fg (A) = cG I(A ? G 6= ?), (12) G?G where cG is a nonnegative cost and I is an indicator such that I(?) = 1 if its argument is true, and 0 otherwise. The value Fg (A) provides a weighted count of how many groups overlap with A. Unfortunately, Fg is not linear, so we need to re-express it to recover an efficient polar operator. To do so, augment the domain by adding l = |G| variables such that each new variable G corresponds to a group G. Then define a weight vector b ? Rn+l such that bi = 0 for i ? n and bG = cG for + n < G ? n + l. Finally, consider the linear cost function Mg : 2[n+l] ? R+ defined by: Mg (B) = hb, 1B i if i ? B ? G ? B, ? i ? G ? G; Mg (B) = ? otherwise. (13) The constraint ensures that if a variable i ? n appears in the set B, then every variable G corresponding to a group G that contains i must also appear in B. By construction, Mg is a nonnegative linear function. It is also easy to verify that Fg satisfies (6) with respect to Mg . To compute the corresponding polar, observe that the effective domain of Mg is a lattice, hence (4) can be solved by combinatorial methods. However, we can do better by exploiting problem structure in the LP. For example, observe that the polytope (7) can now be compactly represented as: Pg = {w ? Rn+l : 0 ? w ? 1, wi ? wG , ? i ? G ? G}. (14) Indeed, it is easy to verify that the integral vectors in Pg are precisely {1B : B ? dom Mg }. Moreover, the linear constraint in (14) is totally unimodular (TUM) since it is the incidence matrix of a bipartite graph (variables and groups), hence Pg is the convex hull of its integral vectors [23]. ? in this case, the LP Using the fact that the scalar ? in (10) admits a closed form solution ? = h1, wi (10) can be reduced to: X X ? ? 0, max g?i min w ?G , subject to w bG w ?G = 1. (15) ? w i?[n] G:i?G?G G?G Note only {w ?G } appear in the problem as implicitly w ?i = minG:i?G w ?G , ? i ? [n]. This is now just a piecewise linear objective over a (reweighted) simplex. Since projecting to a simplex can be performed in linear time, the smoothing method of [17] can be used to obtain a very efficient implementation. We illustrate a particular case where each variable i ? [n] belongs to at most r > 1 groups. (Appendix D considers when the groups form a directed acyclic graph.) ? denote the negated objective of (15). Then for any  > 0, h (w) ? := Proposition 1 Let h(w)  P P 2 n  ?n? gi w ?G / satisfies: (i) the gradient of h is  k? gk? log r -Lipschitz, i?[n] log G:i?G r n log r ? ? h (w) ? ? (?, 0] for all w, ? and (iii) the gradient of h can be computed in O(nr) time. (ii) h(w) 4 (The proof is given in Appendix C.)? With this construction, APG can be run on h to achieve a 2 ? accurate solution to (15) within O( 1 n log r) steps [17], using a total time cost of O( nr n log r).  Note that this is significantly cheaper than the O(n2 (l + n)r) worst case complexity of [11, Algorithm 2]. More importantly, we gain explicit control of the trade-off between accuracy  and computational cost. A detailed comparison to related approaches is given in Appendix B.1 and E. 3.2 Path Coding Another interesting regularizer, recently investigated by [12], is determined by path costs in a directed acyclic graph (DAG) defined over the set of variables i ? [n]. For convenience, we add two nodes, a source s and a sink t, with dummy edges (s, i) and (i, t) for all i ? [n]. An (s, t)-path (or simply path) is then given by a sequence (s, i1 ), (i1 , i2 ), . . . , (ik?1 , ik ), (ik , t) with k ? 1. A nonnegative cost is associated with each edge including (s, i) and (i, t), so the cost of a path is the sum of its edge costs. A regularizer can then be defined by (2) applied to the cost function Fp : 2[n] ? R+  cost of the path if the nodes in A form an (s, t)-path (unique for DAG) . (16) Fp (A) = ? if such a path does not exist Note Fp is not submodular. Although Fp is not linear, a similar ?lifting? construction can be used to show that it is marginalized linear, hence it supports efficient computation of the polar. To explain the construction, let V := [n] ? {s, t} be the node set including s and t, E be the edge set including |T | (s, i) and (i, t), T = V ? E, and let b ? R+ be the concatenation of zeros for node costs and the given edge costs. Let m := |E| be the number of edges. It is then easy to verify that Fp satisfies (6) with respect to the linear cost function Mp : 2T ? R+ defined by: Mp (B) = hb, 1B i if B represents a path; ? otherwise. (17) p To efficiently compute the resulting polar, we consider the form (8) using g?i = |gi | ?i as before: X X h? g, wi ??Mp (g) = max , s.t. wi = wij = wki , ?i ? [n]. (18) j:(i,j)?E k:(k,i)?E 06=w?[0,1]|T | hb, wi Here the constraints form the well-known flow polytope whose vertices are exactly all the paths in a DAG. Similar to (15), the normalized LP ! (10) can be simplified by solving for the scalar ? to obtain: X X X X X ? = 1, max g?i w ?ij + w ?ki , s.t. hb, wi w ?ij = w ?ki , ?i ? [n]. (19) ? w?0 i?[n] j:(i,j)?E k:(k,i)?E j:(i,j)?E k:(k,i)?E Due to the extra constraints, the LP (19) is more complicated than (15) obtained for group sparsity. Nevertheless, after some reformulation (essentially dualization), (19) can still be converted to a simple piecewise linear objective, hence it is amenable to smoothing; see Appendix F for details. To find a 2 accurate solution, the cutting plane method takes O( mn ) computations to optimize the ? 2 nonsmooth piecewise linear objective, while APG needs O( 1 n) steps to optimize the smoothed ? objective, using a total time cost of O( m n). This too is faster than the O(nm) worst case com plexity of [12, Appendix D.5] in the regime where n is large and the desired accuracy  is moderate. 4 Generalizing Beyond Atomic Norms Although we find the above approach to be effective, many useful regularizers are not expressed in form of an atomic norm (2), which makes evaluation of the polar a challenge and thus creates difficulty in applying Algorithm 1. For example, another important class of structured sparse regularizers is given by an alternative, composite gauge construction: X ?s (w) = ?i (w), where ?i is a closed gauge that can be different for different i. (20) i P i ? ? i The polar for such a regularizer is given by ?s (g) = inf{maxi ?i (w ) : i w = g}, where each wi is an independent vector and ??i corresponds to the polar of ?i (proof given in Appendix H). Unfortunately, a polar in this form does not appear to be easy to compute. However, for some regularizers in the form (20) the following proximal objective can indeed be computed efficiently: ArgProx? (g) = arg min? 12 kg ? ?k22 + ?(?). (21) Prox? (g) = min? 12 kg ? ?k22 + ?(?), ? The key observation is that computing ? can be efficiently reduced to just computing Prox? . Proposition 2 For any closed gauge ?, its polar ?? can be equivalently expressed by: ?? (g) = inf{ ? ? 0 : Prox?? (g) = 12 kgk22 }. (22) 5 (The proof is included in Appendix I.) Since the left hand side of the inner constraint is decreasing in ?, one can efficiently compute the polar ?? by a simple root finding search in ?. Thus, regularizers in the form of (20) can still be accommodated in an efficient GCG method in the form of Algorithm 1. 4.1 Latent Fused Lasso To demonstrate the usefulness of this reduction we consider the recently proposed latent fused lasso model [18], where for given data X ? Rm?n one seeks a dictionary matrix W ? Rm?t and coefficient matrix U ? Rt?n that allow X to be accurately reconstructed from a dictionary that has desired structure. In particular, for a reconstruction loss f , the problem is specified by:  X min f (W U, X) + ?p (W ), where ?p (W ) = ?1 kW:i kp + ?2 kW:i kTV , (23) W,U ?U i Pm?1 such that k ? kTV is given by kwkTV = j=1 |wj+1 ? wj | and k ? kp is the usual `p -norm. The fused lasso [24] corresponds to p = 1. Note that U is constrained to be in a compact set U to avoid degeneracy. To ease notation, we assume w.l.o.g. ?1 = ?2 = 1. The main motivation for this regularizer arises from biostatistics, where one wishes to identify DNA copy number variations simultaneously for a group of related samples [18]. In this case the total variation norm k ? kTV encourages the dictionary to vary smoothly from entry to entry while the `p norm shrinks the dictionary so that few latent features are selected. Conveniently, ?p decomposes along the columns of W , so one can apply the reduction in Proposition 2 to compute its polar assuming Prox?p can be efficiently computed. Solving Prox?p appears non-trivial due to the composition of two overlapping norms, however [25] showed that for p = 1 the polar can be solved efficiently by computing Prox for each of the two norms successively. Here we extend this results by proving in Appendix J that the same fact holds for any `p norm.  Proposition 3 For any 1 ? p ? ?, ArgProxk?kTV +k?kp (w) = ArgProxk?kp ArgProxk?kTV (w) . Since Proxk?kp is easy to compute, the only remaining problem is to develop an efficient algorithm for computing Proxk?kTV . Although [26] has recently proposed an approximate iterative method, we provide an algorithm in Appendix K that is able to efficiently compute the exact solution. Therefore, by combining this result with Propositions 2 and 3 we are able to efficiently compute the polar ??p and hence apply Algorithm 1 to solving (23) with respect to W . 5 Experiments To investigate the effectiveness of these computational schemes we considered three applications: group lasso, path coding, and latent fused lasso. All algorithms were implemented in Matlab unless otherwise noted. 5.1 Group Lasso: CUR-like Matrix Factorization Our first experiment considered an example of group lasso that is inspired by CUR matrix factorization [27]. Given a data matrix X ? Rn?d , the goal is to compute an approximate factorization X ? CU R, such that C contains a subset of c columns from X and R contains a subset of r rows from X. Mairal et al. [11, ?5.3] proposed a convex relaxation of this problem:  P P 2 minW 12 kX ?XW Xk + ? (24) i kWi: k? + j kW:j k? . Conveniently, the regularizer fits the development of Section 3.1, with p = 1 and the groups defined to be the rows and columns of W . To evaluate different methods, we used four gene-expression data sets [28]: SRBCT, Brain Tumor 2, 9 Tumor, and Leukemia2, of sizes 83 ? 2308, 50 ? 10367, 60 ? 5762, and 72 ? 11225, respectively. The data matrices were first centered columnwise and then rescaled to have unit Frobenius norm. Algorithms. We compared three algorithms: GCG (Algorithm 1) with our polar operator which we call GCG TUM, GCG with the polar operator of [11, Algorithm 2] (GCG Secant), and APG (see Section 2.1). The PU in APG uses the routine mexProximalGraph from the SPAMS package [29]. The polar operator of GCG Secant was implemented with a mex wrapper of a max-flow package ? [30], while GCG TUM used L-BFGS to find an optimal solution {wG } for the smoothed version of 6 0.2 0.15 0.1 1 2 3 4 10 10 10 CPU time (seconds) 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 Objective function value Objective function value 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 3 10 10 10 CPU time (seconds) (c) 9 Tumor 3 4 10 4 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 1 2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 ?1 10 10 0 1 10 10 CPU time (seconds) (a) Obj vs CPU time (? = 10?2 ) (b) Brain Tumor 2 0.08 2 2 10 10 10 CPU time (seconds) 10 (a) SRBCT 1 1 Objective function value 0.05 0.08 Objective function value Objective function value Objective function value 0.25 3 10 10 10 CPU time (seconds) (d) Leukemia2 Figure 1: Convex CUR matrix factorization results. 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 ?1 10 0 1 10 10 CPU time (seconds) 2 10 (b) Obj vs CPU time (? = 10?3 ) Figure 2: Path coding results. (15) given in Proposition 1, with smoothing parameter  set to 10?3 . To recover an integral solution it suffices to find an optimal solution to (15) that has the form wG = c for some groups and wG = 0 ? } and set the wG of the smallest k for the remainder (such a solution must exist). So we sorted {wG groups to 0, and wG for the remaining groups set to a common value that satisfies the constraint. The best k can be recovered from {0, 1, . . . , |G| ? 1} in O(nr) time. See more details in Appendix G. Both GCG methods relinquish local optimization (step 5) in Algorithm 1, but use a totally corrective variant of step 4, which allows efficient optimization by L-BFGS-B via pre-computing XP?Fg (gk )X. Results. For simplicity, we tested three values for ?: 10?3 , 10?4 , and 10?5 , which led to increasingly dense solutions. Due to space limitations we only show in Figure 1 the results for ? = 10?4 which gives moderately sparse solutions. On these data sets, GCG TUM proves to be an order of magnitude faster than GCG Secant in computing the polar. As [11] observes, network flow based algorithms often find solutions in practice far more quickly than their theoretical bounds. Thanks to the efficiency of totally corrective update, almost all computations taken by GCG Secant were devoted to the polar operator. Therefore the acceleration proffered by GCG TUM in computing the polar leads to a reduction of overall optimization time by at least 50%. Finally, APG is always even slower than GCG Secant by an order of magnitude, with PU taking up the most computation. 5.2 Path Coding Following [12, ?4.3], we consider a logistic regression problem where one is given training examples xi ? Rn with corresponding labels yi ? {?1, 1}. For this problem, we formulate (1) with a path coding regularizer ?Fp and the empirical risk: P (25) f (w) = i n1i log(1 + exp(?yi hw, xi i)), where ni is the number of examples that share the same label as yi . We used the breast cancer data set for this experiment, which consists of 8141 genes and 295 tumors [31]. The gene network is adopted from [32]. Similar to [12, ?4.3], we removed all isolated genes (nodes) to which no edge is incident, randomly oriented the raw edges, and removed cycles to form a DAG using the function mexRemoveCyclesGraph in SPAMS. This resulted in 34864 edges and n = 7910 nodes. Algorithms. We again considered three methods: APG, GCG with our polar operator (GCG TUM), and GCG with the polar operator from [12, Algorithm 1], which we label as GCG Secant. The PU in APG uses the routine mexProximalPathCoding from SPAMS, which solves a quadratic network flow problem. It turns out the time cost for a single call of the PU was enough for GCG TUM and 7 GCG Secant to converge to a final solution, and so the APG result is not included in our plots. We implemented the polar operator for GCG Secant based on Matlab?s built-in shortest path routine graphshortestpath (C++ wrapped by mex). For GCG TUM, we used cutting plane to solve a variant of the dual of (19) (see Appendix F), which is much simipler than smoothing in implementation, but exhibits similar efficiency in practice. An integral solution can also be naturally recovered in the course of computing the objective. Again, both GCG methods only used totally corrective updates. Results. Figure 2 shows the result for path coding, with the regularization coefficient ? set to 10?2 and 10?3 so that the solution is moderately sparse. Again it is clear that GCG TUM is an order of magnitude faster than GCG Secant. 5.3 Latent Fused Lasso Finally, we compared GCG and APG on the latent fused lasso problem (23). Two algorithms were tested as the PU in APG: our proposed method and the algorithm in [26], which we label as APGLiu. The synthetic data is generated by following [18]. For each basis (column) of the dictionary, ? ij = PSj cs I(is ? i ? is + ls ), where Sj ? {3, 5, 8, 10} specifies the we use the model W s=1 number of consecutive blocks in the j-th basis, cs ? {?1, ?2, ?3, ?4, ?5}, is ? {1, . . . , m ? 10} and ls ? {5, 10, 15, 20}, which are the magnitude, starting position, and length of the s-th block, respectively. Note that we choose cs , is , ls randomly (and independently for each block s) from ? are sampled from the Gaussian distribution N (0, 1) their respective sets. The coefficient matrix U (independently for each entry) and normalized to have unit `2 norm for each row. Finally, we ?U ? + ?, with added (zero mean and unit variance) Gaussian generate the observation matrix X = W noise ?. We set the dimension m = 300, the number of samples n = 200, and the number of bases (latent dimension) t? = 10. Since the noise is Gaussian, we choose the squared loss f (W U, X) = 21 kX ? W U k2F , but the algorithm is applicable to any other smooth loss as well. To avoid degeneracy, we constrained each row of U to have unit `2 norm. Finally, to pick an appropriate dictionary size, we tried t ? {5, 10, 20}, which corresponds to under-, perfect- and over-estimation, respectively. The regularization constants ?1 , ?2 in ?p were chosen from {0.01, 0.1, 1, 10, 100}. 4 6.4 6 APG, p=1 GCG, p=1 APG?Liu, p=1 APG, p=2 GCG, p=2 APG?Liu,p=2 6.2 6 Loss + Reg Note that problem (23) is not jointly convex in W and U , so we followed the same strategy as [18]; that is, we alternatively optimized W and U keeping the other fixed. For each subproblem, we ran both APG and GCG to compare their performance. For space limitations, we only report the running time for the setting ?1 = ?2 = 0.1, t = 20 and p ? {1, 2}. In these experiments we observed that the polar typically only requires 5 to 6 calls to Prox. As can be seen from Figure 3, GCG is significantly faster than APG and APGLiu in reducing the objective. This is due to the greedy nature of GCG, which yields very sparse iterates, and when interleaved with local search achieves fast convergence. x 10 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 0 20 40 60 CPU time (sec) 80 100 Figure 3: Latent fused lasso. Conclusion We have identified and investigated a new class of structured sparse regularizers whose polar can be reformulated as a linear program with totally unimodular constraints. By leveraging smoothing techniques, we are able to compute the corresponding polars with significantly better efficiency than previous approaches. When plugged into the GCG algorithm, one can observe significant reductions in run time for both group lasso and path coding regularization. We have further developed a generic scheme for converting an efficient proximal solver to an efficient method for computing the polar operator. 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On the Linear Convergence of the Proximal Gradient Method for Trace Norm Regularization Ke Hou, Zirui Zhou, Anthony Man?Cho So Department of Systems Engineering & Engineering Management The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shatin, N. T., Hong Kong {khou,zrzhou,manchoso}@se.cuhk.edu.hk Zhi?Quan Luo Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering University of Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA [email protected] Abstract Motivated by various applications in machine learning, the problem of minimizing a convex smooth loss function with trace norm regularization has received much attention lately. Currently, a popular method for solving such problem is the proximal gradient method (PGM), which is known to have a sublinear rate of convergence. In this paper, we show that for a large class of loss functions, the convergence rate of the PGM is in fact linear. Our result is established without any strong convexity assumption on the loss function. A key ingredient in our proof is a new Lipschitzian error bound for the aforementioned trace norm?regularized problem, which may be of independent interest. 1 Introduction The problem of finding a low?rank matrix that (approximately) satisfies a given set of conditions has recently generated a lot of interest in many communities. Indeed, such a problem arises in a wide variety of applications, including approximation algorithms [17], automatic control [5], matrix classification [20], matrix completion [6], multi?label classification [1], multi?task learning [2], network localization [7], subspace learning [24], and trace regression [9], just to name a few. Due to the combinatorial nature of the rank function, the task of recovering a matrix with the desired rank and properties is generally intractable. To circumvent this, a popular approach is to use the trace norm1 (also known as the nuclear norm) as a surrogate for the rank function. Such an approach is quite natural, as the trace norm is the tightest convex lower bound of the rank function over the set of matrices with spectral norm at most one [13]. In the context of machine learning, the trace norm is typically used as a regularizer in the minimization of certain convex loss function. This gives rise to convex optimization problems of the form min X?Rm?n {F (X) = f (X) + ? kXk? } , (1) where f : Rm?n ? R is the convex loss function, kXk? denotes the trace norm of X, and ? > 0 is a regularization parameter. By standard results in convex optimization [4], the above formulation is tractable (i.e., polynomial?time solvable) for many choices of the loss function f . In practice, 1 Recall that the trace norm of a matrix is defined as the sum of its singular values. 1 however, one is often interested in settings where the decision variable X is of high dimension. Thus, there has been much research effort in developing fast algorithms for solving (1) lately. Currently, a popular method for solving (1) is the proximal gradient method (PGM), which exploits the composite nature of the objective function F and certain smoothness properties of the loss function f [8, 19, 11]. The attractiveness of PGM lies not only in its excellent numerical performance, but also in its strong theoretical convergence rate guarantees. Indeed, for the trace norm?regularized problem (1) with f being convex and continuously differentiable and ?f being Lipschitz continuous, the standard PGM will achieve an additive error of O(1/k) in the optimal value after k iterations. Moreover, this error can be reduced to O(1/k 2 ) using acceleration techniques; see, e.g., [19]. The sublinear O(1/k 2 ) convergence rate is known to be optimal if f is simply given by a first?order oracle [12]. On the other hand, if f is strongly convex, then the convergence rate can be improved to O(ck ) for some c ? (0, 1) (i.e., a linear convergence rate) [16]. However, in machine learning, the loss functions of interest are often highly structured and hence not just given by an oracle, but they are not necessarily strongly convex either. For instance, in matrix completion, a commonly used loss function is the square loss f (?) = kA(?) ? bk22 /2, where A : Rm?n ? Rp is a linear measurement operator and b ? Rp is a given set of observations. Clearly, f is not strongly convex when A has a non?trivial nullspace (or equivalently, when A is not injective). In view of this, it is natural to ask whether linear convergence of the PGM can be established for a larger class of loss functions. In this paper, we take a first step towards answering this question. Specifically, we show that when the loss function f takes the form f (X) = h(A(X)), where A : Rm?n ? Rp is an arbitrary linear operator and h : Rp ? R is strictly convex with certain smoothness and curvature properties, the PGM for solving (1) has an asymptotic linear rate of convergence. Note that f need not be strictly convex even if h is, as A is arbitrary. Our result covers a wide range of loss functions used in the literature, such as square loss and logistic loss. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first linear convergence result concerning the application of a first?order method to the trace norm?regularized problem (1) that does not require the strong convexity of f . The key to our convergence analysis is a new Lipschitzian error bound for problem (1). Roughly, it says that the distance between a point X ? Rm?n and the optimal solution set of (1) is on the order of the residual norm kprox? (X ? ?f (X)) ? XkF , where prox? is the proximity operator associated with the regularization term ? kXk? . Once we have such a bound, a routine application of the powerful analysis framework developed by Luo and Tseng [10] will yield the desired linear convergence result. Prior to this work, Lipschitzian error bounds for composite function minimization are available for cases where the non?smooth part either has a polyhedral epigraph (such as the ?1 ?norm) [23] or is the (sparse) group LASSO regularization [22, 25]. However, the question of whether a similar bound holds for trace norm regularization has remained open, despite its apparent similarity to ?1 ?norm regularization. Indeed, unlike the ?1 ?norm, the trace norm has a non? polyhedral epigraph; see, e.g., [18]. Moreover, the existing approach for establishing error bounds for ?1 ?norm or (sparse) group LASSO regularization is based on splitting the decision variables into groups, where variables from different groups do not interfere with one another, so that each group can be analyzed separately. However, the trace norm of a matrix is determined by its singular values, and each of them depends on every single entry of the matrix. Thus, we cannot use the same splitting approach to analyze the entries of the matrix. To overcome the above difficulties, we make the ? is an optimal solution to (1), then both X ? and ??f (X) ? have the same crucial observation that if X set of left and right singular vectors; see Proposition 4.2. As a result, we can use matrix perturbation theory to get hold of the spectral structure of the points that are close to the optimal solution set. This in turn allows us to establish a Lipschitzian error bound for the trace norm?regularized problem (1), thereby resolving the aforementioned open question in the affirmative. 2 Preliminaries 2.1 Basic Setup We consider the trace norm?regularized optimization problem (1), in which the loss function f : Rm?n ? R takes the form f (X) = h(A(X)), (2) where A : Rm?n ? Rp is a linear operator and h : Rp ? R is a function satisfying the following assumptions: 2 Assumption 2.1 (a) The effective domain of h, denoted by dom(h), is open and non?empty. (b) The function h is continuously differentiable with Lipschitz?continuous gradient on dom(h) and is strongly convex on any convex compact subset of dom(h). Note that Assumption 2.1(b) implies the strict convexity of h on dom(h) and the Lipschitz continuity of ?f . Now, let X denote the set of optimal solutions to problem (1). We make the following assumption concerning X : Assumption 2.2 The optimal solution set X is non?empty. The above assumptions can be justified in various applications. For instance, in matrix completion, the square loss f (?) = kA(?) ? bk22 /2 induced by the linear measurement operator A and the set of observations b ? Rp is of the form (2), with h(?) = k(?) ? bk22 /2. Moreover, it is clear that such an h satisfies Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2. In multi?task learning, the loss function takes the form P f (?) = Tt=1 ?(At (?), yt ), where T is the number of learning tasks, At : Rm?n ? Rp is the linear operator defined by the input data for the t?th task, yt ? Rp is the output data for the t?th task, and ? : Rp ? Rp ? R measures the learning error. Note that f can be put into the form (2), where A : Rm?n ? RT p is given by A(X) = (A1 (X), A2 (X), . . . , AT (X)), and h : RT p ? R is PT given by h(z) = t=1 ?(zt , yt ) with zt ? Rp for t = 1, . . . , T and z = (z1 , . . . , zT ). Moreover, 2 in the case where Pp ? is, say, the square loss (i.e., ?(zt , yt ) = kzt ? yt k2 /2) or the logistic loss (i.e., ?(zt , yt ) = i=1 log(1 + exp(?zti yti ))), it can be verified that Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 hold. 2.2 Some Facts about the Optimal Solution Set Since f (?) = h(A(?)) by (2) and h(?) is strictly convex on dom(h) by Assumption 2.1(b), it is easy to verify that the map X 7? A(X) is invariant over the optimal solution set X . In other words, there exists a z? ? dom(h) such that for any X ? ? X , we have A(X ? ) = z?. Thus, we can express X as  X = X ? Rm?n : ? kXk? = v ? ? h(? z ), A(X) = z? , where v ? > ?? is the optimal value of (1). In particular, X is a non?empty convex compact set. ? ? X onto X , which is given by the This implies that every X ? Rm?n has a unique projection X solution to the following optimization problem: dist(X, X ) = min kX ? Y kF . Y ?X In addition, since X is bounded and F is convex, it follows from [14, Corollary 8.7.1] that the level set {X ? Rm?n : F (X) ? ?} is bounded for any ? ? R. 2.3 Proximal Gradient Method and the Residual Map To motivate the PGM for solving (1), we recall an alternative characterization of the optimal solution set X . Consider the proximity operator prox? : Rm?n ? Rm?n , which is defined as   1 ? kZk? + kX ? Zk2F . prox? (X) = arg min (3) 2 Z?Rm?n By comparing the optimality conditions for (1) and (3), it is immediate that a solution X ? ? Rm?n is optimal for (1) if and only if it satisfies the following fixed?point equation: X ? = prox? (X ? ? ?f (X ? )). This naturally lead to the following PGM for solving (1):  k+1 Y = X k ? ?k ?f (X k ), k+1 X = prox? ?k (Y k+1 ), (4) (5) where ?k > 0 is the step size in the k?th iteration, for k = 0, 1, . . .; see, e.g., [8, 19, 11]. As is well?known, the proximity operator defined above can be expressed in terms of the so?called matrix 3 shrinkage operator. To describe this result, we introduce some definitions. Let ? > 0 be given. The non?negative vector shrinkage operator s? : Rp+ ? Rp+ is defined as (s? (z))i = max{0, zi ? ?}, where i = 1, . . . , p. The matrix shrinkage operator S? : Rm?n ? Rm?n is defined as S? (X) = U ?? V T , where X = U ?V T is the singular value decomposition of X with ? = Diag(?(X)) and ?(X) being the vector of singular values of X, and ?? = Diag(s? (?(X))). Then, it can be shown that prox? (X) = S? (X); (6) see, e.g., [11, Theorem 3]. Our goal in this paper is to study the convergence rate of the PGM (5). Towards that end, we need a measure to quantify its progress towards optimality. One natural candidate would be dist(?, X ), the distance to the optimal solution set X . Despite its intuitive appeal, such a measure is hard to compute or analyze. In view of (4) and (6), a reasonable alternative would be the norm of the residual map R : Rm?n ? Rm?n , which is defined as R(X) = S? (X ? ?f (X)) ? X. (7) m?n Intuitively, the residual map measures how much a solution X ? R violates the optimality condition (4). In particular, X is an optimal solution to (1) if and only if R(X) = 0. However, since kR(?)kF is only a surrogate of dist(?, X ), we need to establish a relationship between them. This motivates the development of a so?called error bound for problem (1). 3 Main Results Key to our convergence analysis of the PGM (5) is the following error bound for problem (1), which constitutes the main contribution of this paper: Theorem 3.1 (Error Bound for Trace Norm Regularization) Suppose that in problem (1), f is of the form (2), and Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 are satisfied. Then, for any ? ? v ? , there exist constants ? > 0 and ? > 0 such that dist(X, X ) ? ?kR(X)kF whenever F (X) ? ?, kR(X)kF ? ?. (8) Armed with Theorem 3.1 and some standard properties of the PGM (5), we can apply the convergence analysis framework developed by Luo and Tseng [10] to establish the linear convergence of (5). Recall that a sequence of vectors {wk }k?0 is said to converge Q?linearly (resp. R? linearly) to a vector w? if there exist an index K ? 0 and a constant ? ? (0, 1) such that kwk+1 ? w? k2 /kwk ? w? k2 ? ? for all k ? K (resp. if there exist constants ? > 0 and ? ? (0, 1) such that kwk ? w? k2 ? ? ? ?k for all k ? 0). Theorem 3.2 (Linear Convergence of the Proximal Gradient Method) Suppose that in problem (1), f is of the form (2), and Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 are satisfied. Moreover, suppose that the step size ?k in the PGM (5) satisfies 0 < ? < ?k < ? ? < 1/Lf for k = 0, 1, 2, . . ., where Lf is the ? are given constants. Then, the sequence of solutions {X k }k?0 Lipschitz constant of ?f , and ?, ? generated by the PGM (5) converges R?linearly to an element in the optimal solution set X , and the associated sequence of objective values {F (X k )}k?0 converges Q?linearly to the optimal value v ? . Proof. Under the given setting, it can be shown that there exist scalars ?1 , ?2 , ?3 > 0, which depend ? , and Lf , such that on ?, ? F (X k ) ? F (X k+1 ) F (X k+1 )?v k ? kR(X )kF ? ?1 kX k ? X k+1 k2F ,   ? ?2 (dist(X k , X ))2 + kX k+1 ? X k k2F , k ? ?3 kX ? X k k+1 kF ; (9) (10) (11) see the supplementary material. Since {F (X )}k?0 is a monotonically decreasing sequence by (9) and F (X k ) ? v ? for all k ? 0, we conclude, again by (9), that X k ? X k+1 ? 0. This, together with (11), implies that R(X k ) ? 0. Thus, by (9), (10) and Theorem 3.1, there exist an index K ? 0 and a constant ?4 > 0 such that for all k ? K, ?4 F (X k+1 ) ? v ? ? ?4 kX k ? X k+1 k2F ? (F (X k ) ? F (X k+1 )). ?1 4 It follows that ?4 (F (X k ) ? v ? ), (12) ?1 + ?4 which establishes the Q?linear convergence of {F (X k )}k?0 to v ? . Using (9) and (12), we can show that {kX k+1 ? X k k2F }k?0 converges R?linearly to 0, which, together with (11), implies that {X k }k?0 converges R?linearly to a point in X ; see the supplementary material.  F (X k+1 ) ? v ? ? 4 Proof of the Error Bound The structure of our proof of Theorem 3.1 largely follows that laid out in [22, Section 6]. However, as explained in Section 1, some new ingredients are needed in order to analyze the spectral properties of a point that is close to the optimal solution set X . Before we proceed, let us set up the notation that will be used in the proof. Let L > 0 denote the Lipschitz constant of ?h and ?k ? k? denote the subdifferential of k ? k? . Given a sequence {X k }k?0 ? Rm?n \X , define ? k = arg minY ?X kX k ? Y kF , ?k = kX k ? X ? k kF , Rk = R(X k ), X k k k k ? k ? ? z = A(X ), G = ?f (X ) = A (?h(z )), G = A (?h(? z )), (13) ? where A is the adjoint operator of A. The crux of the proof of Theorem 3.1 is the following lemma: Lemma 4.1 Under the setting of Theorem 3.1, suppose that there exists a convergent sequence {X k }k?0 ? Rm?n \X satisfying F (X k ) ? ? for all k ? 0, Rk ? 0, Rk ? 0. ?k (14) Then, the following hold: ? of {X k }k?0 belongs to X . (a) (Asymptotic Optimality) The limit point X (b) (Bounded Iterates) There exists a convex compact subset Z of dom(h) such that z k , z? ? Z for all k ? 0. Consequently, there exists a constant ? ? (0, L] such that for all k ? 0, (?h(z k ) ? ?h(? z ))T (z k ? z?) ? ?kz k ? z?k22 . (15) (c) (Restricted Invertibility) There exists a constant ? > 0 such that ? k kF ? ?kz k ? z?k2 = ?kA(X k ? X ? k )k2 kX k ? X for all k ? 0. (16) ? k )k2 ? kAk ? kX k ? X ? k kF , where kAk = sup It is clear that kA(X k ? X kY kF =1 kA(Y )k2 is the spectral norm of A. Thus, the key element in Lemma 4.1 is the restricted invertibility property (16). For the sake of continuity, let us proceed to prove Theorem 3.1 by assuming the validity of Lemma 4.1. Proof. [Theorem 3.1] We argue by contradiction. Suppose that there exists ? ? v ? such that (8) fails to hold for all ? > 0 and ? > 0. Then, there exists a sequence {X k }k?0 ? Rm?n \X satisfying (14). Since {X ? Rm?n : F (X) ? ?} is bounded (see Section 2.2), by passing to a subsequence if ? Hence, the premises of Lemma 4.1 necessary, we may assume that {X k }k?0 converges to some X. are satisfied. Now, by Fermat?s rule [15, Theorem 10.1], for each k ? 0,  (17) Rk ? arg min hGk + Rk , Di + ? kX k + Dk? . D Hence, we have ? k ? X k i + ? kX ? k k? . hGk + Rk , Rk i + ? kX k + Rk k? ? hGk + Rk , X ? k ? X and ?f (X ? k ) = G, ? we also have ?G ? ? ? ?kX ? k k? , which implies that Since X ? k k? ? hG, ? X k + Rk ? X ? k i + ? kX k + Rk k? . ? kX Adding the two inequalities above and simplifying yield ? Xk ? X ? k i + kRk k2 ? hG ? ? Gk , Rk i + hRk , X ? k ? X k i. hGk ? G, F 5 (18) ? k ), by Lemma 4.1(b,c), Since z k = A(X k ) and z? = A(X ? ? k k2 . (19) ? Xk ? X ? k i = (?h(z k ) ? ?h(? hGk ? G, z ))T (z k ? z?) ? ?kz k ? z?k22 ? 2 kX k ? X F ? Hence, it follows from (15), (18), (19) and the Lipschitz continuity of ?h that ? ? k k2 + kRk k2 ? (?h(? ? k ? Xki kX k ? X z ) ? ?h(z k ))T A(Rk ) + hRk , X F F ?2 ? k kF kRk kF + kX k ? X ? k kF kRk kF . ? LkAk2 kX k ? X In particular, this implies that ? ? k k2 ? (LkAk2 + 1)kX k ? X ? k kF kRk kF kX k ? X F ?2 ? k kF , yields a contradiction to (14).  for all k ? 0, which, upon dividing both sides by kX k ? X 4.1 Proof of Lemma 4.1 We now return to the proof of Lemma 4.1. Since Rk ? 0 by (14) and R is continuous, we have ? = 0, which implies that X ? ? X . This establishes (a). To prove (b), observe that due to (a), the R(X) k sequence {X }k?0 is bounded. Hence, the sequence {A(X k )}k?0 is also bounded, which implies ? lie in a convex compact subset Z of dom(h) for all that the points z k = A(X k ) and z? = A(X) k ? 0. The inequality (15) then follows from Assumption 2.1(b). Note that we have ? ? L, as ?h is Lipschitz continuous with parameter L. To prove (c), we argue by contradiction. Suppose that (16) is false. Then, by further passing to a subsequence if necessary, we may assume that  ? k kF ? 0. (20) kA(X k ) ? z?k2 kX k ? X In the sequel, we will also assume without loss of generality that m ? n. The following proposition establishes a property of the optimal solution set X that will play a crucial role in our proof. ? ? X . Let X ? ?G ? = U ? [Diag(? ? ) 0] V? T be the singular Proposition 4.2 Consider a fixed X m?m n?n ? ? G, ? where U ? ? R value decomposition of X , V? ? R are orthogonal matrices and ? ? ? ? G. ? Then, the matrices X ? and ?G ? can be simultaneously is the vector of singular values of X ? and V? . Moreover, the set Xc ? X , which is defined as singular?value?decomposed by U  ? [Diag(?(X)) 0] V? T , Xc = X ? X : X = U is a non?empty convex compact set. ? k ? Xc onto Xc . Let By Proposition 4.2, for every k ? 0, the point X k has a unique projection X ? k kF = min kX k ? Y kF . ?k = kX k ? X (21) Y ?Xc ? k kF ? kX k ? X ? k kF = ?k . It follows from (20) that Since Xc ? X  , we have ?k = kX k ? X k k k ? kA(X ) ? z?k2 kX ? X kF ? 0. This is equivalent to A(Qk ) ? 0, where ?k Xk ? X Qk = for all k ? 0. (22) ?k In particular, we have kQk kF = 1 for all k ? 0. By further passing to a subsequence if necessary, ? Clearly, we have A(Q) ? = 0 and kQk ? F = 1. we will assume that {Qk }k?0 converges to some Q. ? 4.1.1 Decomposing Q ? = Our goal now is to show that for k sufficiently large and ? > 0 sufficiently small, the point X k k k k ? ? ? X + ?Q belongs to Xc and is closer to X than X is to X . This would then contradict the ? k is the projection of X k onto Xc . To begin, let ? k be the vector of singular values of fact that X k k ? ? G, ? the sequence {? k }k?0 is bounded. Hence, for i = 1, . . . , m, X ? G . Since X k ? Gk ? X by passing to a subsequence if necessary, we can classify the sequence {?ik }k?0 into one of the ? k ) > 0 for all k ? 0; (C) following three cases: (A) ?ik ? ? for all k ? 0; (B) ?ik > ? and ?i (X k k ? ) = 0 for all k ? 0. The following proposition gives the key structural properties ?i > ? and ?i (X ? that will lead to the desired contradiction: of Q 6 ? admits the decomposition Q ?=U ? [Diag(?) 0] V? T , where Proposition 4.3 The matrix Q ? ? k) ?i (X ? ? = ? lim ? 0 in Case (A), ? ? k?? ?k ?i for i = 1, . . . , m. ? ?R in Case (B), ? ? ? >0 in Case (C), It should be noted that the decomposition given in Proposition 4.3 is not necessarily the singular ? as ? could have negative components. A proof of Proposition 4.3 can be value decomposition of Q, found in the supplementary material. 4.1.2 Completing the Proof Armed with Proposition 4.3, we are now ready to complete the proof of Lemma 4.1(c). Since ? k , Qi ? > 0 for all k sufficiently large. Fix Qk 6= 0 for all k ? 0, it follows from (22) that hX k ? X k ? ? ? ? = 0, any such k and let X = X + ?Q, where ? > 0 is a parameter to be determined. Since A(Q) k k ? = ?f (X ? ) = G. ? Moreover, since X ? ? Xc , by the optimality it follows from (13) that ?f (X) condition (4) and Proposition 4.2, we have n o ? k ) + ?i (?G) ? ? ? = ?i (X ? k ) for i = 1, . . . , m. max 0, ?i (X (23) ? satisfies Now, we claim that for ? > 0 sufficiently small, X ? ? G)? ? vi = X ? v?i S? (X ? u ?Ti S? (X ? = ? G) ? u ?Ti X for i = 1, . . . , n, (24) for i = 1, . . . , m, ? (resp. V? ). This would then imply that X ? ? Xc . To prove where u?i (resp. v?i ) is the i?th column of U the claim, observe that for i = m + 1, . . . , n, both sides of (24) are equal to 0. Moreover, since ? k ? Xc , Propositions 4.2 and 4.3 give X   ? ?G ?=U ? Diag(?(X ? k ) + ?? + ?(?G)) ? X 0 V? T . Thus, it suffices to show that for ? > 0 sufficiently small, ? k ) + ??i + ?i (?G) ? ?0 ?i (X ?k ?k ? = ?i (X ) + ??i s? (?i (X ) + ??i + ?i (?G)) for i = 1, . . . , m, (25) for i = 1, . . . , m. (26) Towards that end, fix an index i = 1, . . . , m and consider the three cases defined in Section 4.1.1: ? k ) = 0 for all k sufficiently large, then Proposition 4.3 gives ?i = 0. Moreover, Case (A). If ?i (X ? we have ?i (?G) ? ? by (23). This implies that both (25) and (26) are satisfied for any choice of ? k ) > 0 for all k sufficiently large, then Proposition 4.3 gives ? > 0. On the other hand, if ?i (X ? ? k ) + ??i ? 0, we ?i < 0. Moreover, we have ?i (?G) = ? by (23). By choosing ? > 0 so that ?i (X can guarantee that both (25) and (26) are satisfied. ? k ) > 0 for all k ? 0, we have ?i (?G) ? = ? by (23). Hence, both (25) and (26) Case (B). Since ?i (X k ? ) + ??i ? 0. can be satisfied by choosing ? > 0 so that ?i (X ? ? Xc . Since X k ? X ? and ?k = kX k ? X ? k kF ? Case (C). By Proposition 4.2, we have X k k k ? F , we have X ? ?X ? as well. It follows that ?i (X) ? = 0, as ?i (X ? ) = 0 for all k ? 0 by kX ? Xk ? ?G ? and ? k > ? , we have ? assumption. Now, since X k ? Gk ? X ? ? ? . Thus, Proposition 4.2 i i ? ? G) ? = ?i (X) ? + ?i (?G) ? = ?i (?G). ? This, together with (23), yields implies that ? ? ? ?i = ?i (X ? = ? . Since ?i > 0 by Proposition 4.3, we conclude that both (25) and (26) can be satisfied ?i (?G) by any choice of ? > 0. ? ? Xc . This, together with Thus, in all three cases, the claim is established. In particular, we have X k k ? ? ? hX ? X , Qi > 0 and kQkF = 1, yields ? 2F = kX k ? X ? k ? ?Qk ? 2F = kX k ? X ? k k2F ? 2?hX k ? X ? k , Qi ? + ?2 < kX k ? X ? k k2F kX k ? Xk ? k is the projection of X k onto Xc . This for ? > 0 sufficiently small, which contradicts the fact that X completes the proof of Lemma 4.1(c). 7 5 Numerical Experiments In this section, we complement our theoretical results by testing the numerical performance of the PGM (5) on two problems: matrix completion and matrix classification. Matrix Completion: We randomly generate an n ? n matrix M with a prescribed rank r. Then, we fix a sampling ratio ? ? (0, 1] and sample p = ??n2 ? entries of M uniformly at random. This induces a sampling operator P : Rm?n ? Rp and an observation vector b ? Rp . In our experiments, we fix the rank r = 3 and use the square loss f (?) = kP(?) ? bk22 /2 with regularization parameter ? = 1 in problem (1). We then solve the resulting problem for different values of n and ? using the PGM (5) with a fixed step size ? = 1. We stop the algorithm when F (X k ) ? F (X k+1 ) < 10?8 . Figure 1 shows the semi?log plots of the error in objective value and the error in solution against the number of iterations. It can be seen that as long as the iterates are close enough to the optimal set, both the objective values and the solutions converge linearly. 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 10 n=100 n=500 n=1000 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 0 50 100 Iterations n = 1000 2 10 0 10 ?2 10 ?4 0 250 300 400 600 ?10 10 0 200 400 800 1000 800 2 10 0 10 ?2 10 0 1000 1200 Convergence Performance of Solution 1 n=100 n=500 n=1000 10 600 10 10 ?=0.2 ?=0.5 ?=0.8 0 10 ?1 10 ?2 10 ?3 10 ?4 50 100 150 200 250 300 10 0 200 400 600 800 Iterations Iterations ? = 0.3 n = 40 Iterations n = 1000 ?5 10 n = 40 ?4 200 0 10 Iterations Convergence Performance of Solution 4 ?=0.1 ?=0.3 ?=0.5 Log(error of solution) Log(error of solution) 10 10 200 ?=0.2 ?=0.5 ?=0.8 ? = 0.3 Convergence Performance of Solution 4 150 Convergence Performance of Objective Value 5 10 Iterations Log(Error of Solution) 10 Convergence Performance of Objective Value 5 Log(error of objective value) Log(error of objective value) ?=0.1 ?=0.3 ?=0.5 Log(Error of Objective Value) Convergence Performance of Objective Value 5 10 1000 1200 Figure 2: Matrix Classification Figure 1: Matrix Completion Matrix Classification: We consider a matrix classification problem under the setting described in [21]. Specifically, we first randomly generate a low-rank matrix classifier X ? , which is an n ? n symmetric matrix of rank r. Then, we specify a sampling ratio ? ? (0, 1] and sample p = ??n2 ?/2 independent n ? n symmetric matrices W1 , . . . , Wp from the standard Wishart distribution with n degrees of freedom. The label of Wi , denoted by yi , is given by sgn(hX ? , Wi i). In ourPexperiments, p we fix the rank r = 3, the dimension n = 40, and use the logistic loss f (?) = i=1 log(1 + exp(?yi h?, Wi i)) with regularization parameter ? = 1 in problem (1). Since a good lower bound on the Lipschitz constant Lf of ?f is not readily available in this case, a backtracking line search was adopted at each iteration to achieve an acceptable step size; see, e.g., [3]. We stop the algorithm when F (X k ) ? F (X k+1 ) < 10?6 . Figure 2 shows the convergence performance of the PGM (5) as ? varies. Again, it can be seen that both the objective values and the solutions converge linearly. 6 Conclusion In this paper, we have established the linear convergence of the PGM for solving a class of trace norm?regularized problems. Our convergence result does not require the objective function to be strongly convex and is applicable to many settings in machine learning. The key technical tool in the proof is a Lipschitzian error bound for trace norm?regularized problems, which could be of independent interest. A future direction is to study error bounds for more general matrix norm? regularized problems and their implications on the convergence rates of first?order methods. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of the manuscript and insightful comments. The research of A. M.?C. So is supported in part by a gift grant from Microsoft Research Asia. 8 References [1] Y. Amit, M. Fink, N. Srebro, and S. Ullman. Uncovering Shared Structures in Multiclass Classification. In Proc. 24th ICML, pages 17?24, 2007. [2] A. Argyriou, T. Evgeniou, and M. Pontil. Convex Multi?Task Feature Learning. Mach. Learn., 73(3):243? 272, 2008. [3] A. Beck and M. Teboulle. A Fast Iterative Shrinkage?Thresholding Algorithm for Linear Inverse Problems. SIAM J. Imaging Sci., 2(1):183?202, 2009. [4] A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski. Lectures on Modern Convex Optimization: Analysis, Algorithms, and Engineering Applications. MPS?SIAM Series on Optimization. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2001. [5] M. Fazel, H. Hindi, and S. P. Boyd. A Rank Minimization Heuristic with Application to Minimum Order System Approximation. In Proc. 2001 ACC, pages 4734?4739, 2001. [6] D. Gross. Recovering Low?Rank Matrices from Few Coefficients in Any Basis. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 57(3):1548?1566, 2011. [7] S. Ji, K.-F. Sze, Z. Zhou, A. M.-C. So, and Y. Ye. Beyond Convex Relaxation: A Polynomial?Time Non?Convex Optimization Approach to Network Localization. In Proc. 32nd IEEE INFOCOM, pages 2499?2507, 2013. [8] S. Ji and J. Ye. An Accelerated Gradient Method for Trace Norm Minimization. In Proc. 26th ICML, pages 457?464, 2009. [9] V. Koltchinskii, K. Lounici, and A. B. Tsybakov. Nuclear?Norm Penalization and Optimal Rates for Noisy Low?Rank Matrix Completion. Ann. Stat., 39(5):2302?2329, 2011. [10] Z.-Q. Luo and P. Tseng. Error Bounds and Convergence Analysis of Feasible Descent Methods: A General Approach. Ann. Oper. Res., 46(1):157?178, 1993. [11] S. Ma, D. Goldfarb, and L. Chen. Fixed Point and Bregman Iterative Methods for Matrix Rank Minimization. Math. Program., 128(1?2):321?353, 2011. [12] Yu. Nesterov. Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 2004. [13] B. Recht, M. Fazel, and P. A. Parrilo. Guaranteed Minimum?Rank Solutions of Linear Matrix Equations via Nuclear Norm Minimization. SIAM Rev., 52(3):471?501, 2010. [14] R. T. Rockafellar. Convex Analysis. Princeton Landmarks in Mathematics and Physics. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1997. [15] R. T. Rockafellar and R. J.-B. Wets. Variational Analysis, volume 317 of Grundlehren der mathematischen Wissenschaften. Springer?Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, second edition, 2004. [16] M. Schmidt, N. Le Roux, and F. Bach. Convergence Rates of Inexact Proximal?Gradient Methods for Convex Optimization. In Proc. NIPS 2011, pages 1458?1466, 2011. [17] A. M.-C. So, Y. Ye, and J. Zhang. A Unified Theorem on SDP Rank Reduction. Math. Oper. Res., 33(4):910?920, 2008. [18] W. So. Facial Structures of Schatten p?Norms. Linear and Multilinear Algebra, 27(3):207?212, 1990. [19] K.-C. Toh and S. Yun. An Accelerated Proximal Gradient Algorithm for Nuclear Norm Regularized Linear Least Squares Problems. Pac. J. Optim., 6(3):615?640, 2010. [20] R. Tomioka and K. Aihara. Classifying Matrices with a Spectral Regularization. In Proc. of the 24th ICML, pages 895?902, 2007. [21] R. Tomioka, T. Suzuki, M. Sugiyama, and H. Kashima. A Fast Augmented Lagrangian Algorithm for Learning Low?Rank Matrices. In Proc. 27th ICML, pages 1087?1094, 2010. [22] P. Tseng. Approximation Accuracy, Gradient Methods, and Error Bound for Structured Convex Optimization. Math. Program., 125(2):263?295, 2010. [23] P. Tseng and S. Yun. A Coordinate Gradient Descent Method for Nonsmooth Separable Minimization. Math. Program., 117(1?2):387?423, 2009. [24] M. White, Y. Yu, X. Zhang, and D. Schuurmans. Convex Multi?View Subspace Learning. In Proc. NIPS 2012, pages 1682?1690, 2012. [25] H. Zhang, J. Jiang, and Z.-Q. Luo. On the Linear Convergence of a Proximal Gradient Method for a Class of Nonsmooth Convex Minimization Problems. J. Oper. Res. Soc. China, 1(2):163?186, 2013. 9
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Accelerating Stochastic Gradient Descent using Predictive Variance Reduction Rie Johnson RJ Research Consulting Tarrytown NY, USA Tong Zhang Baidu Inc., Beijing, China Rutgers University, New Jersey, USA Abstract Stochastic gradient descent is popular for large scale optimization but has slow convergence asymptotically due to the inherent variance. To remedy this problem, we introduce an explicit variance reduction method for stochastic gradient descent which we call stochastic variance reduced gradient (SVRG). For smooth and strongly convex functions, we prove that this method enjoys the same fast convergence rate as those of stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SDCA) and Stochastic Average Gradient (SAG). However, our analysis is significantly simpler and more intuitive. Moreover, unlike SDCA or SAG, our method does not require the storage of gradients, and thus is more easily applicable to complex problems such as some structured prediction problems and neural network learning. 1 Introduction In machine learning, we often encounter the following optimization problem. Let ?1 , . . . , ?n be a sequence of vector functions from Rd to R. Our goal is to find an approximate solution of the following optimization problem n min P (w), P (w) := 1X ?i (w). n i=1 (1) For example, given a sequence of n training examples (x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn ), where xi ? Rd and yi ? R, if we use the squared loss ?i (w) = (w> xi ? yi )2 , then we can obtain least squares regression. In this case, ?i (?) represents a loss function in machine learning. One may also include regularization conditions. For example, if we take ?i (w) = ln(1 + exp(?w> xi yi )) + 0.5?w> w (yi ? {?1}), then the optimization problem becomes regularized logistic regression. A standard method is gradient descent, which can be described by the following update rule for t = 1, 2, . . . w(t) = w(t?1) ? ?t ?P (w(t?1) ) = w(t?1) ? n ?t X ??i (w(t?1) ). n i=1 (2) However, at each step, gradient descent requires evaluation of n derivatives, which is expensive. A popular modification is stochastic gradient descent (SGD): where at each iteration t = 1, 2, . . ., we draw it randomly from {1, . . . , n}, and w(t) = w(t?1) ? ?t ??it (w(t?1) ). (3) The expectation E[w(t) |w(t?1) ] is identical to (2). A more general version of SGD is the following w(t) = w(t?1) ? ?t gt (w(t?1) , ?t ), 1 (4) where ?t is a random variable that may depend on w(t?1) , and the expectation (with respect to ?t ) E[gt (w(t?1) , ?t )|w(t?1) ] = ?P (w(t?1) ). The advantage of stochastic gradient is that each step only relies on a single derivative ??i (?), and thus the computational cost is 1/n that of the standard gradient descent. However, a disadvantage of the method is that the randomness introduces variance ? this is caused by the fact that gt (w(t?1) , ?t ) equals the gradient ?P (w(t?1) ) in expectation, but each gt (w(t?1) , ?t ) is different. In particular, if gt (w(t?1) , ?t ) is large, then we have a relatively large variance which slows down the convergence. For example, consider the case that each ?i (w) is smooth ?i (w) ? ?i (w0 ) ? 0.5Lkw ? w0 k2 ? ??i (w0 )> (w ? w0 ), (5) and convex; and P (w) is strongly convex P (w) ? P (w0 ) ? 0.5?kw ? w0 k22 ? ?P (w0 )> (w ? w0 ), (6) where L ? ? ? 0. As long as we pick ?t as a constant ? < 1/L, we have linear convergence of O((1 ? ?/L)t ) Nesterov [2004]. However, for SGD, due to the variance of random sampling, we generally need to choose ?t = O(1/t) and obtain a slower sub-linear convergence rate of O(1/t). This means that we have a trade-off of fast computation per iteration and slow convergence for SGD versus slow computation per iteration and fast convergence for gradient descent. Although the fast computation means it can reach an approximate solution relatively quickly, and thus has been proposed by various researchers for large scale problems Zhang [2004], Shalev-Shwartz et al. [2007] (also see Leon Bottou?s Webpage http://leon.bottou.org/projects/sgd), the convergence slows down when we need a more accurate solution. In order to improve SGD, one has to design methods that can reduce the variance, which allows us to use a larger learning rate ?t . Two recent papers Le Roux et al. [2012], Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012] proposed methods that achieve such a variance reduction effect for SGD, which leads to a linear convergence rate when ?i (w) is smooth and strongly convex. The method in Le Roux et al. [2012] was referred to as SAG (stochastic average gradient), and the method in Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012] was referred to as SDCA. These methods are suitable for training convex linear prediction problems such as logistic regression or least squares regression, and in fact, SDCA is the method implemented in the popular lib-SVM package Hsieh et al. [2008]. However, both proposals require storage of all gradients (or dual variables). Although this issue may not be a problem for training simple regularized linear prediction problems such as least squares regression, the requirement makes it unsuitable for more complex applications where storing all gradients would be impractical. One example is training certain structured learning problems with convex loss, and another example is training nonconvex neural networks. In order to remedy the problem, we propose a different method in this paper that employs explicit variance reduction without the need to store the intermediate gradients. We show that if ?i (w) is strongly convex and smooth, then the same convergence rate as those of Le Roux et al. [2012], Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012] can be obtained. Even if ?i (w) is nonconvex (such as neural networks), under mild assumptions, it can be shown that asymptotically the variance of SGD goes to zero, and thus faster convergence can be achieved. In summary, this work makes the following three contributions: ? Our method does not require the storage of full gradients, and thus is suitable for some problems where methods such as Le Roux et al. [2012], Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012] cannot be applied. ? We provide a much simpler proof of the linear convergence results for smooth and strongly convex loss, and our view provides a significantly more intuitive explanation of the fast convergence by explicitly connecting the idea to variance reduction in SGD. The resulting insight can easily lead to additional algorithmic development. ? The relatively intuitive variance reduction explanation also applies to nonconvex optimization problems, and thus this idea can be used for complex problems such as training deep neural networks. 2 Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient One practical issue for SGD is that in order to ensure convergence the learning rate ?t has to decay to zero. This leads to slower convergence. The need for a small learning rate is due to the variance 2 of SGD (that is, SGD approximates the full gradient using a small batch of samples or even a single example, and this introduces variance). However, there is a fix described below. At each time, we keep a version of estimated w as w ? that is close to the optimal w. For example, we can keep a snapshot of w ? after every m SGD iterations. Moreover, we maintain the average gradient n 1X ? ? = ?P (w) ? = ??i (w), ? n i=1 and its computation requires one pass over the data using w. ? Note that the expectation of ??i (w) ? ? ? ? over i is zero, and thus the following update rule is generalized SGD: randomly draw it from {1, . . . , n}: w(t) = w(t?1) ? ?t (??i (w(t?1) ) ? ??it (w) ? +? ?). (7) We thus have E[w(t) |w(t?1) ] = w(t?1) ? ?t ?P (w(t?1) ). That is, if we let the random variable ?t = it and gt (w(t?1) , ?t ) = ??it (w(t?1) ) ? ??it (w) ? +? ?, then (7) is a special case of (4). The update rule in (7) can also be obtained by defining the auxiliary function ??i (w) = ?i (w) ? (??i (w) ? ?? ?)> w. Pn Since i=1 (??i (w) ? ?? ?) = 0, we know that n n 1X? 1X ?i (w) = ?i (w). P (w) = n i=1 n i=1 Now we may apply the standard SGD to the new representation P (w) = the update rule (7). 1 n Pn i=1 ??i (w) and obtain To see that the variance of the update rule (7) is reduced, we note that when both w ? and w(t) converge to the same parameter w? , then ? ? ? 0. Therefore if ??i (w) ? ? ??i (w? ), then ??i (w(t?1) ) ? ??i (w) ? +? ? ? ??i (w(t?1) ) ? ??i (w? ) ? 0. This argument will be made more rigorous in the next section, where we will analyze the algorithm in Figure 1 that summarizes the ideas described in this section. We call this method stochastic variance reduced gradient (SVRG) because it explicitly reduces the variance of SGD. Unlike SGD, the learning rate ?t for SVRG does not have to decay, which leads to faster convergence as one can use a relatively large learning rate. This is confirmed by our experiments. In practical implementations, it is natural to choose option I, or take w ?s to be the average of the past t iterates. However, our analysis depends on option II. Note that each stage s requires 2m + n gradient computations (for some convex problems, one may save the intermediate gradients ??i (w), ? and thus only m + n gradient computations are needed). Therefore it is natural to choose m to be the same order of n but slightly larger (for example m = 2n for convex problems and m = 5n for nonconvex problems in our experiments). In comparison, standard SGD requires only m gradient computations. Since gradient may be the computationally most intensive operation, for fair comparison, we compare SGD to SVRG based on the number of gradient computations. 3 Analysis For simplicity we will only consider the case that each ?i (w) is convex and smooth, and P (w) is strongly convex. Theorem 1. Consider SVRG in Figure 1 with option II. Assume that all ?i are convex and both (5) and (6) hold with ? > 0. Let w? = arg minw P (w). Assume that m is sufficiently large so that 2L? 1 + < 1, ?= ??(1 ? 2L?)m 1 ? 2L? then we have geometric convergence in expectation for SVRG: E P (w ?s ) ? E P (w? ) + ?s [P (w ?0 ) ? P (w? )] 3 Procedure SVRG Parameters update frequency m and learning rate ? Initialize w ?0 Iterate: for s = 1, 2, . . . w ?=w ?s?1 Pn ? ? = n1 i=1 ??i (w) ? w0 = w ? Iterate: for t = 1, 2, . . . , m Randomly pick it ? {1, . . . , n} and update weight wt = wt?1 ? ?(??it (wt?1 ) ? ??it (w) ? +? ?) end option I: set w ? s = wm option II: set w ?s = wt for randomly chosen t ? {0, . . . , m ? 1} end Figure 1: Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient Proof. Given any i, consider gi (w) = ?i (w) ? ?i (w? ) ? ??i (w? )> (w ? w? ). We know that gi (w? ) = minw gi (w) since ?gi (w? ) = 0. Therefore 0 = gi (w? ) ? min[gi (w ? ??gi (w))] ? ? min[gi (w) ? ?k?gi (w)k22 + 0.5L? 2 k?gi (w)k22 ] = gi (w) ? ? 1 k?gi (w)k22 . 2L That is, k??i (w) ? ??i (w? )k22 ? 2L[?i (w) ? ?i (w? ) ? ??i (w? )> (w ? w? )]. By summing the above inequality over i = 1, . . . , n, and using the fact that ?P (w? ) = 0, we obtain n?1 n X k??i (w) ? ??i (w? )k22 ? 2L[P (w) ? P (w? )]. (8) i=1 We can now proceed to prove the theorem. Let vt = ??it (wt?1 ) ? ??it (w) ? +? ?. Conditioned on wt?1 , we can take expectation with respect to it , and obtain: E kvt k22 ?2 E k??it (wt?1 ) ? ??it (w? )k22 + 2 E k[??it (w) ? ? ??it (w? )] ? ?P (w)k ? 22 =2 E k??it (wt?1 ) ? ??it (w? )k22 + 2 E k[??it (w) ? ? ??it (w? )] ? E [??it (w) ? ? ??it (w? )]k22 ?2 E k??it (wt?1 ) ? ??it (w? )k22 + 2 E k??it (w) ? ? ??it (w? )k22 ?4L[P (wt?1 ) ? P (w? ) + P (w) ? ? P (w? )]. ? = ?P (w). ? The second inequality uses The first inequality uses ka + bk22 ? 2kak22 + 2kbk22 and ? E k? ? E ?k22 = E k?k22 ? k E ?k22 ? E k?k22 for any random vector ?. The third inequality uses (8). Now by noticing that conditioned on wt?1 , we have E vt = ?P (wt?1 ); and this leads to E kwt ? w? k22 =kwt?1 ? w? k22 ? 2?(wt?1 ? w? )> E vt + ? 2 E kvt k22 ?kwt?1 ? w? k22 ? 2?(wt?1 ? w? )> ?P (wt?1 ) + 4L? 2 [P (wt?1 ) ? P (w? ) + P (w) ? ? P (w? )] ?kwt?1 ? w? k22 ? 2?[P (wt?1 ) ? P (w? )] + 4L? 2 [P (wt?1 ) ? P (w? ) + P (w) ? ? P (w? )] =kwt?1 ? w? k22 ? 2?(1 ? 2L?)[P (wt?1 ) ? P (w? )] + 4L? 2 [P (w) ? ? P (w? )]. 4 The first inequality uses the previously obtained inequality for E kvt k22 , and the second inequality convexity of P (w), which implies that ?(wt?1 ? w? )> ?P (wt?1 ) ? P (w? ) ? P (wt?1 ). We consider a fixed stage s, so that w ? = w ?s?1 and w ?s is selected after all of the updates have completed. By summing the previous inequality over t = 1, . . . , m, taking expectation with all the history, and using option II at stage s, we obtain E kwm ? w? k22 + 2?(1 ? 2L?)m E [P (w ?s ) ? P (w? )] ? E kw0 ? w? k22 + 4Lm? 2 E[P (w) ? ? P (w? )] = E kw ? ? w? k22 + 4Lm? 2 E[P (w) ? ? P (w? )] 2 ? E[P (w) ? ? P (w? )] + 4Lm? 2 E[P (w) ? ? P (w? )] ? =2(? ?1 + 2Lm? 2 ) E[P (w) ? ? P (w? )]. The second inequality uses the strong convexity property (6). We thus obtain   2L? 1 + E[P (w ?s?1 ) ? P (w? )]. E [P (w ?s ) ? P (w? )] ? ??(1 ? 2L?)m 1 ? 2L? This implies that E [P (w ?s ) ? P (w? )] ? ?s E [P (w ?0 ) ? P (w? )]. The desired bound follows. The bound we obtained in Theorem 1 is comparable to those obtained in Le Roux et al. [2012], Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012] (if we ignore the log factor). To see this, we may consider for simplicity the most indicative case where the condition number L/? = n. Due to the poor condition number, the standard batch gradient descent requires complexity of n ln(1/) iterations over the data to achieve accuracy of , which means we have to process n2 ln(1/) number of examples. In comparison, in our procedure we may take ? = 0.1/L and m = O(n) to obtain a convergence rate of ? = 1/2. Therefore to achieve an accuracy of , we need to process n ln(1/) number of examples. This matches the results of Le Roux et al. [2012], Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012]. Nevertheless, our analysis is significantly simpler than both Le Roux et al. [2012] and Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2012], and the explicit variance reduction argument provides better intuition on why this method works. In fact, in Section 4 we show that a similar intuition can be used to explain the effectiveness of SDCA. The SVRG algorithm can also be applied to smooth but not strongly convex problems. A convergence ? rate of O(1/T ) may be obtained, which improves the standard SGD convergence rate of O(1/ T ). In order to apply SVRG to nonconvex problems such as neural networks, it is useful to start with an initial vector w ?0 that is close to a local minimum (which may be obtained with SGD), and then the method can be used to accelerate the local convergence rate of SGD (which may converge very slowly by itself). If the system is locally (strongly) convex, then Theorem 1 can be directly applied, which implies local geometric convergence rate with a constant learning rate. 4 SDCA as Variance Reduction It can be shown that both SDCA and SAG are connected to SVRG in the sense they are also a variance reduction methods for SGD, although using different techniques. In the following we present the variance reduction view of SDCA, which provides additional insights into these recently proposed fast convergence methods for stochastic optimization. In SDCA, we consider the following problem with convex ?i (w): n w? = arg min P (w), P (w) = 1X ?i (w) + 0.5?w> w. n i=1 This is the same as our formulation with ?i (w) = ?i (w) + 0.5?w> w. We can take the derivative of (9) and derive a ?dual? representation of w at the solution w? as: w? = n X ?i? (j = 1, . . . , k), i=1 5 (9) where the dual variables 1 ??i (w? ). ?n Therefore in the SGD update (3), if we maintain a representation ?i? = ? w(t) = n X (t) ?i , (10) (11) i=1 then the update of ? becomes: (t) ?` ( (t?1) (1 ? ?t ?)?i ? ?t ??i (w) ` = i = . (t?1) (1 ? ?t ?)?` `= 6 i (12) This update rule requires ?t ? 0 when t ? ?. Alternatively, we may consider starting with SGD by maintaining (11), and then apply the following Dual Coordinate Ascent rule: ( (t?1) (t?1) ?i ? ?t (??i (w(t?1) ) + ?n?i ) `=i (t) ?` = (j = 1, . . . , k) (13) (t?1) ?` ` 6= i (t) (t?1) and then update w as w(t) = w(t?1) + (?i ? ?i ). It can be checked that if we take expectation over random i ? {1, . . . , n}, then the SGD rule in (12) and the dual coordinate ascent rule (13) both yield the gradient descent rule E[w(t |w(t?1) ] = w(t?1) ? ?t ?P (w(t?1) ). Therefore both can be regarded as different realizations of the more general stochastic gradient rule in (4). However, the advantage of (13) is that we may take a larger step when t ? ?. This is because according to (10), when the primal-dual parameters (w, ?) converge to the optimal parameters (w? , ?? ), we have (??i (w) + ?n?i ) ? 0, which means that even if the learning rate ?t stays bounded away from zero, the procedure can converge. This is the same effect as SVRG, in the sense that the variance goes to zero asymptotically: as w ? w? and ? ? ?? , we have n 1X (??i (w) + ?n?i )2 ? 0. n i=1 That is, SDCA is also a variance reduction method for SGD, which is similar to SVRG. From this discussion, we can view SVRG as an explicit variance reduction technique for SGD which is similar to SDCA. However, it is simpler, more intuitive, and easier to analyze. This relationship provides useful insights into the underlying optimization problem that may allow us to make further improvements. 5 Experiments To confirm the theoretical results and insights, we experimented with SVRG (Fig. 1 Option I) in comparison with SGD and SDCA with linear predictors (convex) and neural nets (nonconvex). In all the figures, the x-axis is computational cost measured by the number of gradient computations divided by n. For SGD, it is the number of passes to go through the training data, and for SVRG in the nonconvex case (neural nets), it includes the additional computation of ??i (w) ? both in each iteration and for computing the gradient average ? ?. For SVRG in our convex case, however, ??i (w) ? does not have to be re-computed in each iteration. Since in this case the gradient is always a multiple of xi , i.e., ??i (w) = ?0i (w> xi )xi where ?i (w) = ?i (w> xi ), ??i (w) ? can be compactly saved in memory by only saving scalars ?0i (w ? > xi ) with the same memory consumption as SDCA and SAG. The interval m was set to 2n (convex) and 5n (nonconvex). The weights for SVRG were initialized by performing 1 iteration (convex) or 10 iterations (nonconvex) of SGD; therefore, the line for SVRG starts after x = 1 (convex) or x = 10 (nonconvex) in the respective figures. 6 0.27 0.26 0.25 0 50 #grad / n 100 (c) 1E+02 MNIST convex: training loss residual P(w)-P(w*) 1E-01 1E-04 1E-07 1E-10 1E-13 50 100 0 #grad / n SVRG SDCA SGD-best SGD:0.001 Variance (b (b) Training loss - optimum Training loss (a) 0.31 MNIST convex: training loss: P(w) SGD:0.005 0.3 SGD:0.0025 0.29 SGD:0.001 SVRG:0.025 0.28 MNIST convex: update variance 1E+02 1E-01 1E-04 1E-07 1E-10 1E-13 1E-16 0 50 #grad / n SVRG SGD-best SGD-best/?(t) 100 SDCA SGD:0.001 Figure 2: Multiclass logistic regression (convex) on MNIST. (a) Training loss comparison with SGD with fixed learning rates. The numbers in the legends are the learning rate. (b) Training loss residual P (w)?P (w? ); comparison with best-tuned SGD with learning rate scheduling and SDCA. (c) Variance of weight update (including multiplication with the learning rate). First, we performed L2-regularized multiclass logistic regression (convex optimization) on MNIST1 with regularization parameter ? =1e-4. Fig. 2 (a) shows training loss (i.e., the optimization objective P (w)) in comparison with SGD with fixed learning rates. The results are indicative of the known weakness of SGD, which also illustrates the strength of SVRG. That is, when a relatively large learning rate ? is used with SGD, training loss drops fast at first, but it oscillates above the minimum and never goes down to the minimum. With small ?, the minimum may be approached eventually, but it will take many iterations to get there. Therefore, to accelerate SGD, one has to start with relatively large ? and gradually decrease it (learning rate scheduling), as commonly practiced. By contrast, using a single relatively large value of ?, SVRG smoothly goes down faster than SGD. This is in line with our theoretical prediction that one can use a relatively large ? with SVRG, which leads to faster convergence. Fig. 2 (b) and (c) compare SVRG with best-tuned SGD with learning rate scheduling and SDCA. ?SGD-best? is the best-tuned SGD, which was chosen by preferring smaller training loss from a large number of parameter combinations for two types of learning scheduling: exponential decay ?(t) = ?0 abt/nc with parameters ?0 and a to adjust and t-inverse ?(t) = ?0 (1 + bbt/nc)?1 with ?0 and b to adjust. (Not surprisingly, the best-tuned SGD with learning rate scheduling outperformed the best-tuned SGD with a fixed learning rate throughout our experiments.) Fig. 2 (b) shows training loss residual, which is training loss minus the optimum (estimated by running gradient descent for a very long time): P (w) ? P (w? ). We observe that SVRG?s loss residual goes down exponentially, which is in line with Theorem 1, and that SVRG is competitive with SDCA (the two lines are almost overlapping) and decreases faster than SGD-best. In Fig. 2 (c), we show the variance of SVRG update ??(??i (w) ? ??i (w) ? +? ?) in comparison with the variance of SGD update ??(t)??i (w) and SDCA. As expected, the variance of both SVRG and SDCA decreases as optimization proceeds, and the variance of SGD with a fixed learning rate (?SGD:0.001?) stays high. The variance of the best-tuned SGD decreases, but this is due to the forced exponential decay of the learning rate and the variance of the gradients ??i (w) (the dotted line labeled as ?SGD-best/?(t)?) stays high. Fig. 3 shows more convex-case results (L2-regularized logistic regression) in terms of training loss residual (top) and test error rate (bottom) on rcv1.binary and covtype.binary from the LIBSVM site2 , protein3 , and CIFAR-104 . As protein and covtype do not come with labeled test data, we randomly split the training data into halves to make the training/test split. CIFAR was normalized into [0, 1] by division with 255 (which was also done with MNIST and CIFAR in the other figures), and protein was standardized. ? was set to 1e-3 (CIFAR) and 1e-5 (rest). Overall, SVRG is competitive with SDCA and clearly more advantageous than the best-tuned SGD. It is also worth mentioning that a recent study Schmidt et al. [2013] reports that SAG and SDCA are competitive. To test SVRG with nonconvex objectives, we trained neural nets (with one fully-connected hidden layer of 100 nodes and ten softmax output nodes; sigmoid activation and L2 regularization) with mini-batches of size 10 on MNIST and CIFAR-10, both of which are standard datasets for deep 1 2 3 4 http://yann.lecun.com/exdb/mnist/ http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/ http://osmot.cs.cornell.edu/kddcup/datasets.html www.cs.toronto.edu/?kriz/cifar.html 7 1E-12 0 10 20 #grad / n 1E-5 1E-6 rcv1 convex 0.05 0.04 1E-12 1E-14 0 30 protein convex 0.006 SGD-best SDCA SVRG 0.045 0 30 0.004 0 10 20 #grad / n 30 0.25 0.24 0 10 20 #grad / n 30 SGD-best SDCA SVRG 50 #grad / n 100 CIFAR10 convex 0.66 0.245 0.002 0 30 SGD-best SDCA SVRG 0.255 0.003 0.035 10 20 #grad / n cover type convex 0.26 SGD-best SDCA SVRG 0.005 SGD-best SDCA SVRG 1E-6 1E-8 1E-10 Test error rate SGD-best SDCA SVRG SGD-best SDCA SVRG 10 20 #grad / n 1E-4 CIFAR10 convex 1E+00 1E-02 1E-04 1E-06 1E-08 1E-10 1E-12 training loss - optimum 1E-4 1E-8 1E-2 Test error rate training loss - optimum training loss - optimum cover type convex 1E-3 1E-6 1E-10 Test error rate protein convex 1E-2 1E-4 Test error rate training loss - optimum rcv1 convex 1E-2 SGD-best SDCA SVRG 0.64 0.62 0.6 0.58 0 10 20 #grad / n 30 0 50 100 #grad / n SGD-best/?(t) SGD-best SVRG 1E-2 1E-3 1E-4 Training loss Variance 1E-1 MNIST nonconvex 0.11 0.105 0.1 0.095 0.09 1E-5 0 100 #grad / n 200 CIFAR10 nonconvex SGD-best SVRG 1.6 SGD-best SVRG Training loss MNIST nonconvex 1E+0 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 0 100 #grad / n 200 0 200 400 #grad / n Test error rate Figure 3: More convex-case results. Loss residual P (w) ? P (w? ) (top) and test error rates (down). L2regularized logistic regression (10-class for CIFAR-10 and binary for the rest). CIFAR10 nonconvex SGD-best SVRG 0.52 0.51 0.5 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45 0 200 400 #grad / n Figure 4: Neural net results (nonconvex). neural net studies; ? was set to 1e-4 and 1e-3, respectively. In Fig. 4 we confirm that the results are similar to the convex case; i.e., SVRG reduces the variance and smoothly converges faster than the best-tuned SGD with learning rate scheduling, which is a de facto standard method for neural net training. As said earlier, methods such as SDCA and SAG are not practical for neural nets due to their memory requirement. We view these results as promising. However, further investigation, in particular with larger/deeper neural nets for which training cost is a critical issue, is still needed. 6 Conclusion This paper introduces an explicit variance reduction method for stochastic gradient descent methods. For smooth and strongly convex functions, we prove that this method enjoys the same fast convergence rate as those of SDCA and SAG. However, our proof is significantly simpler and more intuitive. Moreover, unlike SDCA or SAG, this method does not require the storage of gradients, and thus is more easily applicable to complex problems such as structured prediction or neural network learning. Acknowledgment We thank Leon Bottou and Alekh Agarwal for spotting a mistake in the original theorem. 8 References C.J. Hsieh, K.W. Chang, C.J. Lin, S.S. Keerthi, and S. Sundararajan. A dual coordinate descent method for large-scale linear SVM. In ICML, pages 408?415, 2008. Nicolas Le Roux, Mark Schmidt, and Francis Bach. A Stochastic Gradient Method with an Exponential Convergence Rate for Strongly-Convex Optimization with Finite Training Sets. arXiv preprint arXiv:1202.6258, 2012. Y. Nesterov. Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course. Kluwer, Boston, 2004. Mark Schmidt, Nicolas Le Roux, and Francis Bach. Minimizing finite sums with the stochastic average gradient. arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.2388, 2013. S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal Estimated sub-GrAdient SOlver for SVM. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 807?814, 2007. Shai Shalev-Shwartz and Tong Zhang. Stochastic dual coordinate ascent methods for regularized loss minimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1209.1873, 2012. T. Zhang. Solving large scale linear prediction problems using stochastic gradient descent algorithms. In Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Machine Learning, 2004. 9
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Accelerated Mini-Batch Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent Shai Shalev-Shwartz School of Computer Science and Engineering Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Tong Zhang Department of Statistics Rutgers University, NJ, USA Abstract Stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SDCA) is an effective technique for solving regularized loss minimization problems in machine learning. This paper considers an extension of SDCA under the mini-batch setting that is often used in practice. Our main contribution is to introduce an accelerated mini-batch version of SDCA and prove a fast convergence rate for this method. We discuss an implementation of our method over a parallel computing system, and compare the results to both the vanilla stochastic dual coordinate ascent and to the accelerated deterministic gradient descent method of Nesterov [2007]. 1 Introduction We consider the following generic optimization problem. Let ?1 , . . . , ?n be a sequence of vector convex functions from Rd to R, and let g : Rd ? R be a strongly convex regularization function. Our goal is to solve minx?Rd P (x) where " n # 1X P (x) = ?i (x) + g(x) . (1) n i=1 For example, given a sequence of n training examples (v1 , y1 ), . . . , (vn , yn ), where vi ? Rd and yi ? R, ridge regression is obtained by setting g(x) = ?2 kxk2 and ?i (x) = (x> vi ? yi )2 . Regularized logistic regression is obtained by setting ?i (x) = log(1 + exp(?yi x> vi )). The dual problem of (1) is defined as follows: For each i, let ??i : Rd ? R be the convex conjugate of ?i , namely, ??i (u) = maxz?Rd (z > u ? ?i (z)). Similarly, let g ? be the convex conjugate of g. The dual problem is: " n !# n X 1X ? ? 1 max D(?) where D(?) = ??i (??i ) ? g ?i , (2) n n i=1 ??Rd?n i=1 where for each i, ?i is the i?th column of the matrix ?. The dual objective has a different dual vector associated with each primal function. Dual Coordinate Ascent (DCA) methods solve the dual problem iteratively, where at each iteration of DCA, the dual objective is optimized with respect to a single dual vector, while the rest of the dual vectors are kept in tact. Recently, Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2013a] analyzed a stochastic version of dual coordinate ascent, abbreviated by SDCA, in which at each round we choose which dual vector to optimize uniformly at random (see also Richt?arik and Tak?ac? [2012a]). In particular, let x? be the optimum of (1). We say that a solution x is -accurate if P (x) ? P (x? ) ? . Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2013a] have derived the following convergence guarantee for SDCA: If g(x) = ?2 kxk22 and each ?i is (1/?)-smooth, then for every  > 0, if we run SDCA for at least   1 1 log((n + ?? ) ? 1 ) n + ?? 1 iterations, then the solution of the SDCA algorithm will be -accurate (in expectation). This convergence rate is significantly better than the more commonly studied stochastic gradient descent (SGD) methods that are related to SDCA1 . Another approach to solving (1) is deterministic gradient descent methods. In particular, Nesterov [2007] proposed an accelerated gradient descent (AGD) method for solving (1). Under the same conditions mentioned above, AGD finds an -accurate solution after performing   1 O ? log( 1 ) ?? iterations. The advantage of SDCA over AGD is that each iteration involves only a single dual vector and usually costs O(d). In contrast, each iteration of AGD requires ?(nd) operations. On the other hand, AGD has a better?dependence on the condition number of the problem ? the iteration bound of AGD scales with 1/ ?? while the iteration bound of SDCA scales with 1/(??). In this paper we describe and analyze a new algorithm that interpolates between SDCA and AGD. At each iteration of the algorithm, we randomly pick a subset of m indices from {1, . . . , n} and update the dual vectors corresponding to this subset. This subset is often called a mini-batch. The use of mini-batches is common with SGD optimization, and it is beneficial when the processing time of a mini-batch of size m is much smaller than m times the processing time of one example (minibatch of size 1). For example, in the practical training of neural networks with SGD, one is always advised to use mini-batches because it is more efficient to perform matrix-matrix multiplications over a mini-batch than an equivalent amount of matrix-vector multiplication operations (each over a single training example). This is especially noticeable when GPU is used: in some cases the processing time of a mini-batch of size 100 may be the same as that of a mini-batch of size 10. Another typical use of mini-batch is for parallel computing, which was studied by various authors for stochastic gradient descent (e.g., Dekel et al. [2012]). This is also the application scenario we have in mind, and will be discussed in greater details in Section 3. Recently, Tak?ac et al. [2013] studied mini-batch variants of SDCA in the context of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) problem. They have shown that the naive mini-batching method, in which m dual variables are optimized in parallel, might actually increase the number of iterations required. They then describe several ?safe? mini-batching schemes, and based on the analysis of ShalevShwartz and Zhang [2013a], have shown several speed-up results. However, their results are for the non-smooth case and hence they do not obtain linear convergence rate. In addition, the speed-up they obtain requires some spectral properties of the training examples. We take a different approach and employ Nesterov?s acceleration method, which has previously been applied to mini-batch SGD optimization. This paper shows how to achieve acceleration for SDCA in the mini-batch setting. The pseudo code of our Accelerated Mini-Batch SDCA, abbreviated by ASDCA, is presented below. Procedure Accelerated Mini-Batch SDCA Parameters scalars ?, ? and ? ? [0, 1] ; mini-batch size m (0) (0) Initialize ?1 = ? ? ? = ?n = ? ? (t) = 0, x(0) = 0 Iterate: for t = 1, 2, . . . u(t?1) = (1 ? ?)x(t?1) + ??g ? (? ?(t?1) ) Randomly pick subset I ? {1, . . . , n} of size m and update the dual variables in I (t) (t?1) ?i = (1 ? ?)?i ? ???i (u(t?1) ) for i ? I (t) (t?1) ?j = ?j for j ? /I P (t) (t?1) (t) (t?1) ?1 ? ? =? ? +n ) i?I (?i ? ?i (t) (t?1) ? (t) x = (1 ? ?)x + ??g (? ? ) end In the next section we present our main result ? an analysis of the number of iterations required by ASDCA. We focus on the case of Euclidean regularization, namely, g(x) = ?2 kxk2 . Analyzing more general strongly convex regularization functions is left for future work. In Section 3 we discuss 1 An exception is the recent analysis given in Le Roux et al. [2012] for a variant of SGD. 2 parallel implementations of ASDCA and compare it to parallel implementations of AGD and SDCA. In particular, we explain in which regimes ASDCA can be better than both AGD and SDCA. In Section 4 we present some experimental results, demonstrating how ASDCA interpolates between AGD and SDCA. The proof of our main theorem is differed to a long version of this paper (ShalevShwartz and Zhang [2013b]). We conclude with a discussion of our work in light of related works in Section 5. 2 Main Results Our main result is a bound on the number of iterations required by ASDCA to find an -accurate solution. In our analysis, we only consider the squared Euclidean norm regularization, ? kxk2 , 2 where k ? k is the Euclidean norm and ? > 0 is a regularization parameter. The analysis for general ?-strongly convex regularizers is left for future work. For the squared Euclidean norm we have g(x) = 1 1 k?k2 and ?g ? (?) = ? . 2? ? We further assume that each ?i is 1/?-smooth with respect to k ? k, namely, g ? (?) = ?x, z, ?i (x) ? ?i (z) + ??i (z)> (x ? z) + 1 kx ? zk2 . 2? For example, if ?i (x) = (x> vi ? yi )2 , then it is kvi k2 -smooth. The smoothness of ?i also implies that ??i (?) is ?-strongly convex: ?? ? [0, 1], ??i ((1 ? ?)? + ??) ? (1 ? ?)??i (?) + ???i (?) ? ?(1 ? ?)? k? ? ?k2 . 2 We have the following result for our method. 1 kxk22 and for each i, ?i is (1/?)-smooth w.r.t. the Euclidean Theorem 1. Assume that g(x) = 2? norm. Suppose that the ASDCA algorithm is run with parameters ?, ?, m, ?, where ) ( r 1 ??n (??n)2/3 . (3) ? ? min 1 , , ??n , 4 m m1/3 Define the dual sub-optimality by ?D(?) = D(?? ) ? D(?), where ?? is the optimal dual solution, and the primal sub-optimality by ?P (x) = P (x) ? D(?? ). Then, m E ?P (x(t) ) + n E ?D(?(t) ) ? (1 ? ?m/n)t [m?P (x(0) ) + n?D(?(0) )]. It follows that after performing t? n/m log ?  m?P (x(0) ) + n?D(?(0) ) m  iterations, we have that E[P (x(t) ) ? D(?(t) )] ? . Let us now discuss the bound, assuming ? is taken to be the right-hand side of (3). The dominating factor of the bound on t becomes   r n n m 1 m1/3 = ? max 1 , , , (4) m? m ??n ??n (??n)2/3 s ( ) n n/m 1/m n1/3 = max , , , . (5) m ?? ?? (??m)2/3 Table 1 summarizes several interesting cases, and compares the iteration bound of ASDCA to the iteration bound of the vanilla SDCA algorithm (as analyzed in Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2013a]) 3 Algorithm SDCA ASDCA AGD ??n = ?(1) n ? n/ m ? n ??n = ?(1/m) nm n ? nm ??n = ?(m) n n/m p n/m Table 1: Comparison of Iteration Complexity Algorithm SDCA ASDCA AGD ??n = ?(1) n ? n m ? n n ??n = ?(1/m) nm nm ? n nm ??n = ?(m) n pn n n/m Table 2: Comparison of Number of Examples Processed and the Accelerated Gradient Descent (AGD) algorithm of Nesterov [2007]. In the table, we ignore constants and logarithmic factors. As can be seen in the table, the ASDCA algorithm interpolates between SDCA and AGD. In particular, ASDCA has the same bound as SDCA when m = 1 and the same bound as AGD when m = n. Recall that the cost of each iteration of AGD scales with n while the cost of each iteration of SDCA does not scale with n. The cost of each iteration of ASDCA scales with m. To compensate for the difference cost per iteration for different algorithms, we may also compare the complexity in terms of the number of examples processed (see Table 2). This is also what we will study in our empirical experiments. It should be mentioned that this comparison is meaningful in a single processor environment, but not in a parallel computing environment when multiple examples can be processed simultaneously in a minibatch. In the next section we discuss under what conditions the overall runtime of ASDCA is better than both AGD and SDCA. 3 Parallel Implementation In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in implementing optimization algorithms using a parallel computing architecture (see Section 5). We now discuss how to implement AGD, SDCA, and ASDCA when having a computing machine with s parallel computing nodes. In the calculations below, we use the following facts: ? If each node holds a d-dimensional vector, we can compute the sum of these vectors in time O(d log(s)) by applying a ?tree-structure? summation (see for example the All-Reduce architecture in Agarwal et al. [2011]). ? A node can broadcast a message with c bits to all other nodes in time O(c log2 (s)). To see this, order nodes on the corners of the log2 (s)-dimensional hypercube. Then, at each iteration, each node sends the message to its log(s) neighbors (namely, the nodes whose code word is at a hamming distance of 1 from the node). The message between the furthest away nodes will pass after log(s) iterations. Overall, we perform log(s) iterations and each iteration requires transmitting c log(s) bits. ? All nodes can broadcast a message with c bits to all other nodes in time O(cs log2 (s)). To see this, simply apply the broadcasting of the different nodes mentioned above in parallel. The number of iterations will still be the same, but now, at each iteration, each node should transmit cs bits to its log(s) neighbors. Therefore, it takes O(cs log2 (s)) time. For concreteness of the discussion, we consider problems in which ?i (x) takes the form of `(x> vi , yi ), where yi is a scalar and vi ? Rd . This is the case in supervised learning of linear predictors (e.g. logistic regression or ridge regression). We further assume that the average number ? In very large-scale problems, a single machine cannot hold all of of non-zero elements of vi is d. the data in its memory. However, we assume that a single node can hold a fraction of 1/s of the data in its memory. 4 Let us now discuss parallel implementations of the different algorithms starting with deterministic gradient algorithms (such as AGD). The bottleneck operation of deterministic gradient algorithms is the calculation of the gradient. In the notation mentioned above, this amounts to performing order of nd? operations. If the data is distributed over s computing nodes, where each node holds n/s ? + d log(s)) as follows. First, each node examples, we can calculate the gradient in time O(nd/s ? calculates the gradient over its own n/s examples (which takes time O(nd/s)). Then, the s resulting d vectors in R are summed up in time O(d log(s)). Next, let us consider the SDCA algorithm. On a single computing node, it was observed that SDCA is much more efficient than deterministic gradient descent methods, since each iteration of SDCA ? while each iteration of AGD costs ?(nd). ? When we have s nodes, for the SDCA costs only ?(d) algorithm, dividing the examples into s computing nodes does not yield any speed-up. However, we can divide the features into the s nodes (that is, each node will hold d/s of the features for all 2 > ? of the examples). This enables Pthe computation of x vi in (expected) time of O(d/s + s log (s)). Indeed, node t will calculate j?Jt xj vi,j , where Jt is the set of features stored in node t (namely, |Jt | = d/s). Then, each node broadcasts the resulting scalar to all the other nodes. Note that we ? will obtain a speed-up over the naive implementation only if s log2 (s)  d. For the ASDCA algorithm, each iteration involves the computation of the gradient over m examples. We can choose to implement it by dividing the examples to the s nodes (as we did for AGD) or by dividing the features into the s nodes (as we did for SDCA). In the first case, the cost of each iteration ? + d log(s)) while in the latter case, the cost of each iteration is O(md/s ? + ms log2 (s)). is O(md/s We will choose between these two implementations based on the relation between d, m, and s. The runtime and communication time of each iteration is summarized in the table below. Algorithm partition type runtime communication time SDCA features ? d/s s log2 (s) ASDCA features ms log2 (s) ASDCA examples ? dm/s ? dm/s examples ? dn/s d log(s) AGD d log(s) We again see that ASDCA nicely interpolates between SDCA and AGD. In practice, it is usually the case that there is a non-negligible cost of opening communication channels between nodes. In that case, it will be better to apply the ASDCA with a value of m that reflects an adequate tradeoff between the runtime of each node and the communication time. With the appropriate value of m (which depends on constants like the cost of opening communication channels and sending packets of bits between nodes), ASDCA may outperform both SDCA and AGD. 4 Experimental Results In this section we demonstrate how ASDCA interpolates between SDCA and AGD. All of our experiments are performed for the task of binary classification with a smooth variant of the hingeloss (see Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2013a]). Specifically, let (v1 , y1 ), . . . , (vm , ym ) be a set of labeled examples, where for every i, vi ? Rd and yi ? {?1}. Define ?i (x) to be ? yi x> vi > 1 ?0 > ?i (x) = 1/2 ? yi x vi yi x> vi < 0 ?1 > 2 o.w. 2 (1 ? yi x vi ) We also set the regularization function to be g(x) = ?2 kxk22 where ? = 1/n. This is the default value for the regularization parameter taken in several optimization packages. Following Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang [2013a], the experiments were performed on three large datasets with very different feature counts and sparsity. The astro-ph dataset classifies abstracts of papers from the physics ArXiv according to whether they belong in the astro-physics section; 5 astro-ph CCAT ?1 cov1 ?1 10 ?1 10 10 ?2 10 ?3 ?2 10 ?3 10 5 6 10 7 10 6 10 10 7 9 6 10 10 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.11 0.13 Test Loss 0.12 0.1 0.11 0.08 0.1 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37 0.35 5 10 6 10 7 0.3 0.29 10 7 0.11 10 9 6 10 10 #processed examples 0.15 m=3 m=30 m=299 AGD SDCA 0.12 8 10 #processed examples 0.13 0.33 0.31 6 10 0.34 0.32 0.07 0.05 m=52 m=523 m=5229 AGD SDCA 0.38 0.36 0.12 0.09 8 10 0.39 m=78 m=781 m=7813 AGD SDCA 0.17 7 10 #processed examples Test Loss 0.13 10 #processed examples m=3 m=30 m=299 AGD SDCA 0.14 8 10 #processed examples 0.15 ?2 10 ?3 10 10 Test Loss m=52 m=523 m=5229 AGD SDCA Primal suboptimality m=78 m=781 m=7813 AGD SDCA Primal suboptimality Primal suboptimality m=3 m=30 m=299 AGD SDCA m=78 m=781 m=7813 AGD SDCA 0.14 0.13 7 10 8 10 #processed examples m=52 m=523 m=5229 AGD SDCA 0.32 0.31 0.3 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.07 Test Error Test Error Test Error 0.29 0.11 0.09 0.1 0.09 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.08 0.06 0.25 0.07 0.05 0.24 0.06 0.04 0.23 0.05 0.03 0.22 5 10 6 10 7 10 6 10 #processed examples 7 8 10 10 9 10 #processed examples 6 10 7 10 8 10 #processed examples Figure 1: The figures presents the performance of AGD, SDCA, and ASDCA with different values of mini-batch size, m. In all figures, the x axis is the number of processed examples. The three columns are for the different datasets. Top: primal sub-optimality. Middle: average value of the smoothed hinge loss function over a test set. Bottom: average value of the 0-1 loss over a test set. CCAT is a classification task taken from the Reuters RCV1 collection; and cov1 is class 1 of the covertype dataset of Blackard, Jock & Dean. The following table provides details of the dataset characteristics. Dataset astro-ph CCAT cov1 Training Size 29882 781265 522911 Testing Size 32487 23149 58101 Features 99757 47236 54 Sparsity 0.08% 0.16% 22.22% We ran ASDCA with values of m from the set {10?4 n, 10?3 n, 10?2 n}. We also ran the SDCA algorithm and the AGD algorithm. In Figure 1 we depict the primal sub-optimality of the different algorithms as a function of the number of examples processed. Note that each iteration of SDCA processes a single example, each iteration of ASDCA processes m examples, and each iteration of AGD processes n examples. As can be seen from the graphs, ASDCA indeed interpolates between SDCA and AGD. It is clear from the graphs that SDCA is much better than AGD when we have a single computing node. ASDCA performance is quite similar to SDCA when m is not very large. As discussed in Section 3, when we have parallel computing nodes and there is a non-negligible cost of opening communication channels between nodes, running ASDCA with an appropriate value of m (which depends on constants like the cost of opening communication channels) may yield the best performance. 6 5 Discussion and Related Work We have introduced an accelerated version of stochastic dual coordinate ascent with mini-batches. We have shown, both theoretically and empirically, that the resulting algorithm interpolates between the vanilla stochastic coordinate descent algorithm and the accelerated gradient descent algorithm. Using mini-batches in stochastic learning has received a lot of attention in recent years. E.g. ShalevShwartz et al. [2007] reported experiments showing that applying small mini-batches in Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) decreases the required number of iterations. Dekel et al. [2012] and Agarwal and Duchi [2012] gave an analysis of SGD with mini-batches for smooth loss functions. Cotter et al. [2011] studied SGD and accelerated versions of SGD with mini-batches and Tak?ac et al. [2013] studied SDCA with mini-batches for SVMs. Duchi et al. [2010] studied dual averaging in distributed networks as a function of spectral properties of the underlying graph. However, all of these methods have a polynomial dependence on 1/, while we consider the strongly convex and smooth case in which a log(1/) rate is achievable.2 Parallel coordinate descent has also been recently studied in Fercoq and Richt?arik [2013], Richt?arik and Tak?ac? [2013]. It is interesting to note that most3 of these papers focus on mini-batches as the method of choice for distributing SGD or SDCA, while ignoring the option to divide the data by features instead of by examples. A possible reason is the cost of opening communication sockets as discussed in Section 3. There are various practical considerations that one should take into account when designing a practical system for distributed optimization. We refer the reader, for example, to Dekel [2010], Low et al. [2010, 2012], Agarwal et al. [2011], Niu et al. [2011]. The more general problem of distributed PAC learning has been studied recently in Daume III et al. [2012], Balcan et al. [2012]. See also Long and Servedio [2011]. In particular, they obtain algorithms with O(log(1/)) communication complexity. However, these works consider efficient algorithms only in the realizable case. Acknowledgements: Shai Shalev-Shwartz is supported by the Intel Collaborative Research Institute for Computational Intelligence (ICRI-CI). Tong Zhang is supported by the following grants: NSF IIS-1016061, NSF DMS-1007527, and NSF IIS-1250985. References Alekh Agarwal and John C Duchi. Distributed delayed stochastic optimization. In Decision and Control (CDC), 2012 IEEE 51st Annual Conference on, pages 5451?5452. IEEE, 2012. Alekh Agarwal, Olivier Chapelle, Miroslav Dud??k, and John Langford. A reliable effective terascale linear learning system. arXiv preprint arXiv:1110.4198, 2011. Maria-Florina Balcan, Avrim Blum, Shai Fine, and Yishay Mansour. Distributed learning, communication complexity and privacy. arXiv preprint arXiv:1204.3514, 2012. Joseph K Bradley, Aapo Kyrola, Danny Bickson, and Carlos Guestrin. Parallel coordinate descent for l1-regularized loss minimization. In ICML, 2011. Andrew Cotter, Ohad Shamir, Nathan Srebro, and Karthik Sridharan. Better mini-batch algorithms via accelerated gradient methods. arXiv preprint arXiv:1106.4574, 2011. Hal Daume III, Jeff M Phillips, Avishek Saha, and Suresh Venkatasubramanian. Protocols for learning classifiers on distributed data. arXiv preprint arXiv:1202.6078, 2012. Ofer Dekel. Distribution-calibrated hierarchical classification. In NIPS, 2010. Ofer Dekel, Ran Gilad-Bachrach, Ohad Shamir, and Lin Xiao. Optimal distributed online prediction using mini-batches. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:165?202, 2012. 2 It should be noted that one can use our results for Lipschitz functions as well by smoothing the loss function (see Nesterov [2005]). By doing so, we can interpolate between the 1/2 rate of non-accelerated method and the 1/ rate of accelerated gradient. 3 There are few exceptions in the context of stochastic coordinate descent in the primal. See for example Bradley et al. [2011], Richt?arik and Tak?ac? [2012b] 7 John Duchi, Alekh Agarwal, and Martin J Wainwright. Distributed dual averaging in networks. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 23, 2010. Olivier Fercoq and Peter Richt?arik. Smooth minimization of nonsmooth functions with parallel coordinate descent methods. arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.5885, 2013. Nicolas Le Roux, Mark Schmidt, and Francis Bach. A Stochastic Gradient Method with an Exponential Convergence Rate for Strongly-Convex Optimization with Finite Training Sets. arXiv preprint arXiv:1202.6258, 2012. Phil Long and Rocco Servedio. Algorithms and hardness results for parallel large margin learning. In NIPS, 2011. Yucheng Low, Joseph Gonzalez, Aapo Kyrola, Danny Bickson, Carlos Guestrin, and Joseph M Hellerstein. Graphlab: A new framework for parallel machine learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1006.4990, 2010. Yucheng Low, Danny Bickson, Joseph Gonzalez, Carlos Guestrin, Aapo Kyrola, and Joseph M Hellerstein. Distributed graphlab: A framework for machine learning and data mining in the cloud. Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, 5(8):716?727, 2012. Yurii Nesterov. Smooth minimization of non-smooth functions. Mathematical Programming, 103 (1):127?152, 2005. Yurii Nesterov. Gradient methods for minimizing composite objective function, 2007. Feng Niu, Benjamin Recht, Christopher R?e, and Stephen J Wright. Hogwild!: A lock-free approach to parallelizing stochastic gradient descent. arXiv preprint arXiv:1106.5730, 2011. Peter Richt?arik and Martin Tak?ac? . Iteration complexity of randomized block-coordinate descent methods for minimizing a composite function. Mathematical Programming, pages 1?38, 2012a. Peter Richt?arik and Martin Tak?ac? . Parallel coordinate descent methods for big data optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1212.0873, 2012b. Peter Richt?arik and Martin Tak?ac? . Distributed coordinate descent method for learning with big data. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.2059, 2013. Shai Shalev-Shwartz and Tong Zhang. Stochastic dual coordinate ascent methods for regularized loss minimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14:567?599, Feb 2013a. Shai Shalev-Shwartz and Tong Zhang. Accelerated mini-batch stochastic dual coordinate ascent. arxiv, 2013b. Shai Shalev-Shwartz, Yoram Singer, and Nathan Srebro. Pegasos: Primal Estimated sub-GrAdient SOlver for SVM. In ICML, pages 807?814, 2007. Martin Tak?ac, Avleen Bijral, Peter Richt?arik, and Nathan Srebro. Mini-batch primal and dual methods for svms. arxiv, 2013. 8
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Estimation, Optimization, and Parallelism when Data is Sparse H. Brendan McMahan2 Google, Inc.2 Seattle, WA 98103 [email protected] John C. Duchi1,2 Michael I. Jordan1 University of California, Berkeley1 Berkeley, CA 94720 {jduchi,jordan}@eecs.berkeley.edu Abstract We study stochastic optimization problems when the data is sparse, which is in a sense dual to current perspectives on high-dimensional statistical learning and optimization. We highlight both the difficulties?in terms of increased sample complexity that sparse data necessitates?and the potential benefits, in terms of allowing parallelism and asynchrony in the design of algorithms. Concretely, we derive matching upper and lower bounds on the minimax rate for optimization and learning with sparse data, and we exhibit algorithms achieving these rates. We also show how leveraging sparsity leads to (still minimax optimal) parallel and asynchronous algorithms, providing experimental evidence complementing our theoretical results on several medium to large-scale learning tasks. 1 Introduction and problem setting In this paper, we investigate stochastic optimization problems in which the data is sparse. Formally, let {F (?; ?), ? ? ?} be a collection of real-valued convex functions, each of whose domains contains the convex set X ? Rd . For a probability distribution P on ?, we consider the following optimization problem: Z minimize f (x) := E[F (x; ?)] = F (x; ?)dP (?). (1) x?X ? By data sparsity, we mean the samples ? are sparse: assuming that samples ? lie in Rd , and defining the support supp(x) of a vector x to the set of indices of its non-zero components, we assume supp ?F (x; ?) ? supp ?. (2) The sparsity condition (2) means that F (x; ?) does not ?depend? on the values of xj for indices j such that ?j = 0.1 This type of data sparsity is prevalent in statistical optimization problems and machine learning applications; in spite of its prevalence, study of such problems has been limited. As a motivating example, consider a text classification problem: data ? ? Rd represents words appearing in a document, and we wish to minimize a logistic loss F (x; ?) = log(1 + exp(h?, xi)) on the data (we encode the label implicitly with the sign of ?). Such generalized linear models satisfy the sparsity condition (2), and while instances are of very high dimension, in any given instance, very few entries of ? are non-zero [8]. From a modelling perspective, it thus makes sense to allow a dense predictor x: any non-zero entry of ? is potentially relevant and important. In a sense, this is dual to the standard approaches to high-dimensional problems; one usually assumes that the data ? may be dense, but there are only a few relevant features, and thus a parsimonious model x is desirous [2]. So 1 Formally, if ?? denotes the coordinate projection zeroing all indices j of its argument where ?j = 0, then F (?? (x); ?) = F (x; ?) for all x, ?. This follows from the first-order conditions for convexity [6]. 1 while such sparse data problems are prevalent?natural language processing, information retrieval, and other large data settings all have significant data sparsity?they do not appear to have attracted as much study as their high-dimensional ?duals? of dense data and sparse predictors. In this paper, we investigate algorithms and their inherent limitations for solving problem (1) under natural conditions on the data generating distribution. Recent work in the optimization and machine learning communities has shown that data sparsity can be leveraged to develop parallel (and even asynchronous [12]) optimization algorithms [13, 14], but this work does not consider the statistical effects of data sparsity. In another line of research, Duchi et al. [4] and McMahan and Streeter [9] develop ?adaptive? stochastic gradient algorithms to address problems in sparse data regimes (2). These algorithms exhibit excellent practical performance and have theoretical guarantees on their convergence, but it is not clear if they are optimal?in that no algorithm can attain better statistical performance?or whether they can leverage parallel computing as in the papers [12, 14]. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach. First, we investigate the fundamental limits of optimization and learning algorithms in sparse data regimes. In doing so, we derive lower bounds on the optimization error of any algorithm for problems of the form (1) with sparsity condition (2). These results have two main implications. They show that in some scenarios, learning with sparse data is quite difficult, as essentially each coordinate j ? [d] can be relevant and must be optimized for. In spite of this seemingly negative result, we are also able to show that the A DAG RAD algorithms of [4, 9] are optimal, and we show examples in which their dependence on the dimension d can be made exponentially better than standard gradient methods. As the second facet of our two-pronged approach, we study how sparsity may be leveraged in parallel computing frameworks to give substantially faster algorithms that still achieve optimal sample complexity in terms of the number of samples ? used. We develop two new algorithms, asynchronous dual averaging (A SYNC DA) and asynchronous A DAG RAD (A SYNC A DAG RAD), which allow asynchronous parallel solution of the problem (1) for general convex f and X . Combining insights of Niu et al.?s H OGWILD ! [12] with a new analysis, we prove our algorithms achieve linear speedup in the number of processors while maintaining optimal statistical guarantees. We also give experiments on text-classification and web-advertising tasks to illustrate the benefits of the new algorithms. 2 Minimax rates for sparse optimization We begin our study of sparse optimization problems by establishing their fundamental statistical and optimization-theoretic properties. To do this, we derive bounds on the minimax convergence rate of any algorithm for such problems. Formally, let x b denote any estimator for a minimizer of the objective (1). We define the optimality gap ?N for the estimator x b based on N samples ? 1 , . . . , ? N from the distribution P as ?N (b x, F, X , P ) := f (b x) ? inf f (x) = EP [F (b x; ?)] ? inf EP [F (x; ?)] . x?X x?X This quantity is a random variable, since x b is a random variable (it is a function of ? 1 , . . . , ? N ). To define the minimax error, we thus take expectations of the quantity ?N , though we require a bit more than simply E[?N ]. We let P denote a collection of probability distributions, and we consider a collection of loss functions F specified by a collection F of convex losses F : X ? ? ? R. We can then define the minimax error for the family of losses F and distributions P as ??N (X , P, F) := inf sup sup EP [?N (b x(? 1:N ), F, X , P )], x b P ?P F ?F (3) where the infimum is taken over all possible estimators x b (an estimator is an optimization scheme, or a measurable mapping x b : ?N ? X ) . 2.1 Minimax lower bounds Let us now give a more precise characterization of the (natural) set of sparse optimization problems we consider to provide the lower bound. For the next proposition, we let P consist of distributions supported on ? = {?1, 0, 1}d , and we let pj := P (?j 6= 0) be the marginal probability of appearance of feature j ? {1, . . . , d}. For our class of functions, we set F to consist of functions F satisfying the sparsity condition (2) and with the additional constraint that for g ? ?x F (x; ?), we have that the jth coordinate |gj | ? Mj for a constant Mj < ?. We obtain 2 Proposition 1. Let the conditions of the preceding paragraph hold. Let R be a constant such that X ? [?R, R]d . Then   ? d pj 1 X ? ?N (X , P, F) ? R . Mj min pj , ? 8 j=1 N log 3 We provide the proof of Proposition 1 in the supplement A.1 in the full version of the paper, providing a few remarks here. We begin by giving a corollary to Proposition 1 that follows when the data ? obeys a type of power law: let p0 ? [0, 1], and assume that P (?j 6= 0) = p0 j ?? . We have Corollary 2. Let ? ? 0. Let the conditions of Proposition 1 hold with Mj ? M for all j, and assume the power law condition P (?j 6= 0) = p0 j ?? on coordinate appearance probabilities. Then (1) If d > (p0 N )1/? , ??N (X , P, F) r     2?? 1?? p0 2 p0  1?? MR 2? ? (p0 N ) d ? (p0 N ) . ?1 + ? 8 2?? N 1?? (2) If d ? (p0 N )1/? , ??N (X , P, F) MR ? 8 r p0 N  ? 1 1 d1? 2 ? 1 ? ?/2 1 ? ?/2  . Expanding Corollary 2 slightly, for simplicity assume the number of samples is large enough that d ? (p0 N )1/? . Then we find that the lower bound on optimization error is of order r r r p0 1? ? p0 p0 2 d when ? < 2, M R log d when ? ? 2, and M R when ? > 2. (4) MR N N N These results beg the question of tightness: are they improvable? As we see presently, they are not. 2.2 Algorithms for attaining the minimax rate To show that the lower bounds of Proposition 1 and its subsequent specializations are sharp, we review a few stochastic gradient algorithms. We begin with stochastic gradient descent (SGD): SGD repeatedly samples ? ? P , computes g ? ?x F (x; ?), then performs the update x ? ?X (x ? ?g), where ? is a stepsize parameter and ?X denotes Euclidean projection onto X . Standard analyses of stochastic gradient descent [10] show that after N samples ? i , the SGD estimator x b(N ) satisfies Pd 1 R2 M ( j=1 pj ) 2 ? E[f (b x(N ))] ? inf f (x) ? O(1) , (5) x?X N where R2 denotes the ?2 -radius of X . Dual averaging, due to Nesterov [11] (sometimes called ?follow the regularized leader? [5]) is a more recent algorithm. In dual averaging, one again samples g ? ?x F (x; ?), but instead of updating the parameter vector x one updates a dual vector z by z ? z + g, then computes   1 x ? argmin hz, xi + ?(x) , ? x?X 2 where ?(x) is a strongly convex function defined over X (often one takes ?(x) = 21 kxk2 ). As we discuss presently, the dual averaging algorithm is somewhat more natural in asynchronous and parallel computing environments, and it enjoys the same type of convergence guarantees (5) as SGD. The A DAG RAD algorithm [4, 9] is an extension of the preceding stochastic gradient methods. It maintains a diagonal matrix S, where upon receiving a new sample ?, A DAG RAD performs the following: it computes g ? ?x F (x; ?), then updates Sj ? Sj + gj2 for j ? [d]. The dual averaging variant of A DAG RAD updates the usual dual vector z ? z + g; the update to x is based on S and a stepsize ? and computes   1 D ? 1 ?E ? 2 x ,S x . x ? argmin hz, x i + 2? x? ?X 3 After N samples ?, the averaged parameter x b(N ) returned by A DAG RAD satisfies d R? M X ? pj , E[f (b x(N ))] ? inf f (x) ? O(1) ? x?X N j=1 (6) where R? denotes the ?? -radius of X (cf. [4, Section 1.3 and Theorem 5]). By inspection, the A DAG RAD rate (6) matches the lower bound in Proposition 1 and is thus optimal. It is interesting to note, though, that in the power law setting of Corollary 2 (recall order (4)), a calculation ? the error(1??)/2 shows that the multiplier for the SGD guarantee (5) becomes R? d max{d , 1}, while A DA 1??/2 G RAD attains rate at worst R max{d , log d}. For ? > 1, the A DAG RAD rate is no worse, ? ? and for ? ? 2, is more than d/ log d better?an exponential improvement in the dimension. 3 Parallel and asynchronous optimization with sparsity As we note in the introduction, recent works [12, 14] have suggested that sparsity can yield benefits in our ability to parallelize stochastic gradient-type algorithms. Given the optimality of A DAG RADtype algorithms, it is natural to focus on their parallelization in the hope that we can leverage their ability to ?adapt? to sparsity in the data. To provide the setting for our further algorithms, we first revisit Niu et al.?s H OGWILD ! [12]. H OGWILD ! is an asynchronous (parallelized) stochastic gradient algorithm for optimization over product-space domains, meaning that X in problem (1) decomposes as X = X1 ? ? ? ? ? Xd , where Xj ? R. Fix a stepsize ? > 0. A pool of independently running processors then performs the following updates asynchronously to a centralized vector x: 1. Sample ? ? P 2. Read x and compute g ? ?x F (x; ?) 3. For each j s.t. gj 6= 0, update xj ? ?Xj (xj ? ?gj ). Here ?Xj denotes projection onto the jth coordinate of the domain X . The key of H OGWILD ! is that in step 2, the parameter x is allowed to be inconsistent?it may have received partial gradient updates from many processors?and for appropriate problems, this inconsistency is negligible. Indeed, Niu et al. [12] show linear speedup in optimization time as the number of processors grow; they show this empirically in many scenarios, providing a proof under the somewhat restrictive assumptions that there is at most one non-zero entry in any gradient g and that f has Lipschitz gradients. 3.1 Asynchronous dual averaging A weakness of H OGWILD ! is that it appears only applicable to problems for which the domain X is a product space, and its analysis assumes kgk0 = 1 for all gradients g. In effort to alleviate these difficulties, we now develop and present our asynchronous dual averaging algorithm, A SYNC DA. A SYNC DA maintains and upates a centralized dual vector z instead of a parameter x, and a pool of processors perform asynchronous updates to z, where each processor independently iterates: n o 1. Read z and compute x := argminx?X hz, xi + ?1 ?(x) // Implicitly increment ?time? counter t and let x(t) = x 2. Sample ? ? P and let g ? ?x F (x; ?) // Let g(t) = g. 3. For j ? [d] such that gj 6= 0, update zj ? zj + gj . Because the actual computation of the vector x in A SYNC DA is performed locally on each processor in step 1 of the algorithm, the algorithm can be executed with any proximal function ? and domain X . The only communication point between any of the processors is the addition operation in step 3. Since addition is commutative and associative, forcing all asynchrony to this point of the algorithm is a natural strategy for avoiding synchronization problems. In our analysis of A SYNC DA, and in our subsequent analysis of the adaptive methods, we require a measurement of time elapsed. With that in mind, we let t denote a time index that exists (roughly) behind-the-scenes. We let x(t) denote the vector x ? X computed in the tth step 1 of the A SYNC DA 4 algorithm, that is, whichever is the tth x actually computed by any of the processors. This Pt quantity exists and is recoverable from the algorithm, and it is possible to track the running sum ? =1 x(? ). Additionally, we state two assumptions encapsulating the conditions underlying our analysis. Assumption A. There is an upper bound m on the delay of any processor. In addition, for each j ? [d] there is a constant pj ? [0, 1] such that P (?j 6= 0) ? pj . We also require certain continuity (Lipschitzian) properties of the loss functions; these amount to a second moment constraint on the instantaneous ?F and a rough measure of gradient sparsity. Assumption B. There exist constants M and (Mj )dj=1 such that the following bounds hold for all 2 x ? X : E[k?x F (x; ?)k2 ] ? M2 and for each j ? [d] we have E[|?xj F (x; ?)|] ? pj Mj . With these definitions, we have the following theorem, which captures the convergence behavior of A SYNC DA under the assumption that X is a Cartesian product, meaning that X = X1 ? ? ? ? ? Xd , 2 where Xj ? R, and that ?(x) = 12 kxk2 . Note the algorithm itself can still be efficiently parallelized for more general convex X , even if the theorem does not apply. Theorem 3. Let Assumptions A and B and the conditions in the preceding paragraph hold. Then X  T d X 1 ? 2 t ? t E F (x(t); ? ) ? F (x ; ? ) ? p2j Mj2 . kx? k2 + T M2 + ?T m 2? 2 t=1 j=1 We now provide a few remarks to explain and simplify the result. Under the more stringent condition Pd 2 that |?xj F (x; ?)| ? Mj , Assumption A implies E[k?x F (x; ?)k2 ] ? j=1 pj Mj2 . Thus, for the Pd remainder of this section we take M2 = j=1 pj Mj2 , which upper bounds the Lipschitz continuity constant of the objective function f . We then obtain the following corollary. ? PT Corollary 4. Define x b(T ) = T1 t=1 x(t), and set ? = kx? k2 /M T . Then E[f (b x(T )) ? f (x? )] ? d kx? k X 2 2 M kx? k2 ? + m ?2 pj M j . T 2M T j=1 Corollary 4 is nearly immediate: since ? t is independent of x(t), we have E[F (x(t); ? t ) | x(t)] = f (x(t)); applying Jensen?s inequality to f (b x(T )) and performing an algebraic manipulation give the result. If the data is suitably sparse, meaning that pj ? 1/m, the bound in Corollary 4 simplifies to qP d ? 2 ? 3 3 M kx k2 j=1 pj Mj kx k2 ? ? ? = , (7) E[f (b x(T )) ? f (x )] ? 2 2 T T which is the convergence rate of stochastic gradient descent even in centralized ? settings (5). The convergence guarantee (7) shows that after T timesteps, the error scales as 1/ T ; however, if we have k processors, updates occur roughly k times as quickly, as they are asynchronous, and in time scaling as N/k, we can evaluate N gradient samples: a linear speedup. 3.2 Asynchronous AdaGrad We now turn to extending A DAG RAD to asynchronous settings, developing A SYNC A DAG RAD (asynchronous A DAG RAD). As in the A SYNC DA algorithm, A SYNC A DAG RAD maintains a shared dual vector z (the sum of gradients) and the shared matrix S, which is the diagonal sum of squares of gradient entries (recall Section 2.2). The matrix S is initialized as diag(? 2 ), where ?j ? 0 is an initial value. Each processor asynchronously performs the following iterations: 1 1 hx, Gxi} 1. Read S and z and set G = S 2 . Compute x := argminx?X {hz, xi + 2? increment ?time? counter t and let x(t) = x, S(t) = S 2. Sample ? ? P and let g ? ?F (x; ?) 3. For j ? [d] such that gj 6= 0, update Sj ? Sj + gj2 and zj ? zj + gj . 5 // Implicitly As in the description of A SYNC DA, we note that x(t) is the vector x ? X computed in the tth ?step? of the algorithm (step 1), and similarly associate ? t with x(t). To analyze A SYNC A DAG RAD, we make a somewhat stronger assumption on the sparsity properties of the losses F than Assumption B. Assumption C. There exist constants (Mj )dj=1 such that E[(?xj F (x; ?))2 | ?j 6= 0] ? Mj2 for all x ? X. P 2 Indeed, taking M2 = j pj Mj shows that Assumption C implies Assumption B with specific constants. We then have the following convergence result. Theorem 5. In addition to the conditions of Theorem 3, let Assumption C hold. Assume that for all j we have ? 2 ? Mj2 m and X ? [?R? , R? ]d . Then T X t=1   E F (x(t); ? t ) ? F (x? ; ? t ) ? d X j=1 min  1 2 R E ? ? " 2 ? + T X t=1 gj (t) 2  21 # + ?E " T X t=1 gj (t) 2  21 #  (1 + pj m), Mj R? pj T . It is possible to relax the condition on the initial constant diagonal term; we defer this to the full version of the paper. It is natural to ask in which situations the bound provided by Theorem 5 is optimal. We note that, as in the case with Theorem 3, we may obtain a convergence rate for f (b x(T )) ? f (x? ) using convexity, P T where x b(T ) = T1 t=1 x(t). By Jensen?s inequality, we have for any ? that "  12  21 #  T T q X X 2 2 2 2 E[gj (t) ] ? ? + ? ? 2 + T pj Mj2 . gj (t) E ? + t=1 t=1 For interpretation, let us now make a few assumptions on the probabilities pj . If we assume that pj ? c/m for a universal (numerical) constant c, then Theorem 5 guarantees that ) (p  X d log(T )/T + pj 1 2 ? ? E[f (b x(T )) ? f (x )] ? O(1) R? + ? (8) , pj , Mj min ? T j=1 ? which is the convergence p rate of A DAG RAD except for a small factor of min{ log T /T, pj } in addition to the usual pj /T rate. In particular, optimizing by choosing ? = R? , and assuming pj & T1 log T , we have convergence guarantee ?  d X pj E[f (b x(T )) ? f (x? )] ? O(1)R? Mj min ? , pj , T j=1 which is minimax optimal by Proposition 1. In fact, however, the bounds of Theorem 5 are somewhat stronger: they provide bounds using the expectation of the squared gradients gj (t) rather than the maximal value Mj , though the bounds are perhaps clearer in the form (8). We note also that our analysis applies to more adversarial settings than stochastic optimization (e.g., to online convex optimization [5]). Specifically, an adversary may choose an arbitrary sequence of functions subject to the random data sparsity constraint (2), and our results provide an expected regret bound, which is strictly stronger than the stochastic convergence guarantees provided (and guarantees high-probability convergence in stochastic settings [3]). Moreover, our comments in Section 2 about the relative optimality of A DAG RAD versus standard gradient methods apply. When the data is sparse, we indeed should use asynchronous algorithms, but using adaptive methods yields even more improvement than simple gradient-based methods. 4 Experiments In this section, we give experimental validation of our theoretical results on A SYNC A DAG RAD and A SYNC DA, giving results on two datasets selected for their high-dimensional sparsity.2 2 In our experiments, A SYNC DA and H OGWILD ! had effectively identical performance. 6 8 0.07 6 5 4 0.024 Test error Training loss Speedup 0.025 0.065 7 0.06 0.055 0.05 0.045 0.04 0.023 0.022 0.021 0.02 0.035 3 0.019 2 1 2 4 0.03 A-A DAG RAD A SYNC DA Number of workers 6 8 10 12 14 0.018 0.025 0.02 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Number of workers 0.017 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Number of workers 16 Figure 1. Experiments with URL data. Left: speedup relative to one processor. Middle: training dataset loss versus number of processors. Right: test set error rate versus number of processors. AA DAG RAD abbreviates A SYNC A DAG RAD. 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.0 1 2 4 8 16 64 256 number of passes A-AdaGrad, ? = 0.008 L2 = 0 A-AdaGrad, ? = 0.008 L2 = 80 A-DA, ? = 0.8 L2 = 0 A-DA, ? = 0.8 L2 = 80 1.00 1.01 1.4 1.02 1.03 1.04 Impact of L2 regularizaton on test error 1.04 Fixed stepsizes, test data, L2=0 1.2 relative log-loss 1.6 1.8 Fixed stepsizes, training data, L2=0 A-AdaGrad ? = 0.002 A-AdaGrad ? = 0.004 A-AdaGrad ? = 0.008 A-AdaGrad ? = 0.016 A-DA ? = 0.800 A-DA ? = 1.600 A-DA ? = 3.200 1 2 4 8 16 32 number of passes 64 128 256 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 number of passes Figure 2: Relative accuracy for various stepsize choices on an click-through rate prediction dataset. 4.1 Malicious URL detection For our first set of experiments, we consider the speedup attainable by applying A SYNC A DAG RAD and A SYNC DA, investigating the performance of each algorithm on a malicious URL prediction task [7]. The dataset in this case consists of an anonymized collection of URLs labeled as malicious (e.g., spam, phishing, etc.) or benign over a span of 120 days. The data in this case consists of 2.4 ? 106 examples with dimension d = 3.2 ? 106 (sparse) features. We perform several experiments, randomly dividing the dataset into 1.2 ? 106 training and test samples for each experiment. In Figure 1 we compare the performance of A SYNC A DAG RAD and A SYNC DA after doing after single pass through the training dataset. (For each algorithm, we choose the stepsize ? for optimal training set performance.) We perform the experiments on a single machine running Ubuntu Linux with six cores (with two-way hyperthreading) and 32Gb of RAM. From the left-most plot in Fig. 1, we see that up to six processors, both A SYNC DA and A SYNC A DAG RAD enjoy the expected linear speedup, and from 6 to 12, they continue to enjoy a speedup that is linear in the number of processors though at a lesser slope (this is the effect of hyperthreading). For more than 12 processors, there is no further benefit to parallelism on this machine. The two right plots in Figure 1 plot performance of the different methods (with standard errors) versus the number of worker threads used. Both are essentially flat; increasing the amount of parallelism does nothing to the average training loss or the test error rate for either method. It is clear, however, that for this dataset, the adaptive A SYNC A DAG RAD algorithm provides substantial performance benefits over A SYNC DA. 4.2 Click-through-rate prediction experiments We also experiment on a proprietary datasets consisting of search ad impressions. Each example corresponds to showing a search-engine user a particular text ad in response to a query string. From this, we construct a very sparse feature vector based on the text of the ad displayed and the query string (no user-specific data is used). The target label is 1 if the user clicked the ad and -1 otherwise. 7 (B) A-AdaGrad speedup (D) Impact of training data ordering 1.004 1.005 1.006 1.007 1.008 1 2 4 8 16 32 number of passes 64 128 256 1.000 1 2 A-DA base ? = 1.600 A-AdaGrad base ? = 0.023 0 1.005 relative stepsize (C) Optimal stepsize scaling relative log-loss 1.003 target relative log-loss 1.005 1.010 1.002 1.010 1.015 8 4 0 speedup A-DA ? = 1.600 A-AdaGrad ? = 0.016 1.001 1.000 relative log-loss 1.015 A-DA, L2=80 A-AdaGrad, L2=80 12 (A) Optimized stepsize for each number of passes 1 2 4 8 16 32 number of passes 64 128 256 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 number of passes Figure 3. (A) Relative test-set log-loss for A SYNC DA and A SYNC A DAG RAD, choosing the best stepsize (within a factor of about 1.4?) individually for each number of passes. (B) Effective speedup for A SYNC A DAG RAD. (C) The best stepsize ?, expressed as a scaling factor on the stepsize used for one pass. (D) Five runs with different random seeds for each algorithm (with ?2 penalty 80). We fit logistic regression models using both A SYNC DA and A SYNC A DAG RAD. We run extensive experiments on a moderate-sized dataset (about 107 examples, split between training and testing), which allows thorough investigation of the impact of the stepsize ?, the number of training passes,3 and ?2 -regularization on accuracy. For these experiments we used 32 threads on 16 core machines for each run, as A SYNC A DAG RAD and A SYNC DA achieve similar speedups from parallelization. On this dataset, A SYNC A DAG RAD typically achieves an effective additional speedup over A SYNC DA of 4? or more. That is, to reach a given level of accuracy, A SYNC DA generally needs four times as many effective passes over the dataset. We measure accuracy with log-loss (the logistic loss) averaged over five runs using different random seeds (which control the order in which the algorithms sample examples during training). We report relative values in Figures 2 and 3, that is, the ratio of the mean loss for the given datapoint to the lowest (best) mean loss obtained. Our results are not particularly sensitive to the choice of relative log-loss as the metric of interest; we also considered AUC (the area under the ROC curve) and observed similar results. Figure 2 shows relative log-loss as a function of the number of training passes for various stepsizes. Without regularization, A SYNC A DAG RAD is prone to overfitting: it achieves significantly higher accuracy on the training data (Fig. 2 (left)), but unless the stepsize is tuned carefully to the number of passes, it will overfit (Fig. 2 (middle)). Fortunately, the addition of ?2 regularization largely solves this problem. Indeed, Figure 2 (right) shows that while adding an ?2 penalty of 80 has very little impact on A SYNC DA, it effectively prevents the overfitting of A SYNC A DAG RAD.4 Fixing ?? 2 regularization multiplier to 80, we varied the stepsize ? over a multiplicative grid with resolution 2 for each number of passes and for each algorithm. Figure 3 reports the results obtained by selecting the best stepsize in terms of test set log-loss for each number of passes. Figure 3(A) shows relative log-loss of the best stepsize for each algorithm; 3(B) shows the relative time A SYNC DA requires with respect to A SYNC A DAG RAD to achieve a given loss. Specifically, Fig. 3(B) shows the ratio of the number of passes the algorithms require to achieve a fixed loss, which gives a broader estimate of the speedup obtained by using A SYNC A DAG RAD; speedups range from 3.6? to 12?. Figure 3(C) shows the optimal stepsizes as a function of the best setting for one pass. The optimal stepsize decreases moderately for A SYNC A DAG RAD, but are somewhat noisy for A SYNC DA. It is interesting to note that A SYNC A DAG RAD?s accuracy is largely independent of the ordering of the training data, while A SYNC DA shows significant variability. This can be seen both in the error bars on Figure 3(A), and explicitly in Figure 3(D), where we plot one line for each of the five random seeds used. Thus, while on the one hand A SYNC DA requires somewhat less tuning of the stepsize and ?2 parameter, tuning A SYNC A DAG RAD is much easier because of its predictable response. 3 Here ?number of passes? more precisely means the expected number of times each example in the dataset is trained on. That is, each worker thread randomly selects a training example from the dataset for each update, and we continued making updates until (dataset size) ? (number of passes) updates have been processed. 4 For both algorithms, this is accomplished by adding the term ?80 kxk22 to the ? function. We can achieve slightly better results for A SYNC A DAG RAD by varying the ?2 penalty with the number of passes. 8 References [1] P. Auer and C. Gentile. Adaptive and self-confident online learning algorithms. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory, 2000. [2] P. B?uhlmann and S. van de Geer. Statistics for High-Dimensional Data: Methods, Theory and Applications. Springer, 2011. [3] N. Cesa-Bianchi, A. Conconi, and C. Gentile. On the generalization ability of on-line learning algorithms. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 50(9):2050?2057, September 2004. [4] J. C. Duchi, E. Hazan, and Y. Singer. Adaptive subgradient methods for online learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:2121?2159, 2011. [5] E. Hazan. The convex optimization approach to regret minimization. In Optimization for Machine Learning, chapter 10. MIT Press, 2012. [6] J. Hiriart-Urruty and C. Lemar?echal. Convex Analysis and Minimization Algorithms I & II. Springer, New York, 1996. [7] J. Ma, L. K. Saul, S. Savage, and G. M. Voelker. Identifying malicious urls: An application of large-scale online learning. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2009. [8] C. Manning and H. Sch?utze. Foundations of Statistical Natural Language Processing. MIT Press, 1999. [9] B. McMahan and M. Streeter. Adaptive bound optimization for online convex optimization. In Proceedings of the Twenty Third Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory, 2010. [10] A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, and A. Shapiro. Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 19(4):1574?1609, 2009. [11] Y. Nesterov. Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems. Mathematical Programming, 120(1):261?283, 2009. [12] F. Niu, B. Recht, C. R?e, and S. Wright. Hogwild: a lock-free approach to parallelizing stochastic gradient descent. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, 2011. [13] P. Richt?arik and M. Tak?ac? . Parallel coordinate descent methods for big data optimization. arXiv:1212.0873 [math.OC], 2012. URL http://arxiv.org/abs/1212.0873. [14] M. Tak?ac? , A. Bijral, P. Richt?arik, and N. Srebro. Mini-batch primal and dual methods for SVMs. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. 9
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Learning in Feedforward Networks with Nonsmooth Functions Nicholas J. Redding? Information Technology Division Defence Science and Tech. Org. P.O. Box 1600 Salisbury Adelaide SA 5108 Australia T.Downs Intelligent Machines Laboratory Dept of Electrical Engineering University of Queensland Brisbane Q 4072 Australia Abstract This paper is concerned with the problem of learning in networks where some or all of the functions involved are not smooth. Examples of such networks are those whose neural transfer functions are piecewise-linear and those whose error function is defined in terms of the 100 norm. Up to now, networks whose neural transfer functions are piecewise-linear have received very little consideration in the literature, but the possibility of using an error function defined in terms of the 100 norm has received some attention. In this latter work, however, the problems that can occur when gradient methods are used for non smooth error functions have not been addressed. In this paper we draw upon some recent results from the field of nonsmooth optimization (NSO) to present an algorithm for the non smooth case. Our motivation for this work arose out of the fact that we have been able to show that, in backpropagation, an error function based upon the 100 norm overcomes the difficulties which can occur when using the 12 norm. 1 INTRODUCTION This paper is concerned with the problem of learning in networks where some or all of the functions involved are not smooth. Examples of such networks are those whose neural transfer functions are piecewise-linear and those whose error function is defined in terms of the 100 norm. ?The author can be contacted via email [email protected]. 1056 Learning in Feedforward Networks with Nonsmooth Functions Up to now. networks whose neural transfer functions are piecewise-linear have received very little consideration in the literature. but the possibility of using an error function defined in terms of the ?00 norm has received some attention [1]. In the work described in [1]. however. the problems that can occur when gradient methods are used for nonsmooth error functions have not been addressed. In this paper we draw upon some recent results from the field of nonsmooth optimization (NSO) to present an algorithm for the nonsmooth case. Our motivation for this work arose out of the fact that we have been able to show [2]1 that an error function based upon the ?00 norm overcomes the difficulties which can occur when using backpropagation's ?2 norm [4]. The framework for NSO is the class of locally Lipschitzian functions [5]. Locally Lipschitzian functions are a broad class of functions that include. but are not limited to. "smooth to (completely differentiable) functions. (Note. however. that this framework does not include step-functions.) We here present a method for training feedforward networks (FFNs) whose behaviour can be described by a locally Lipschitzian function y = f lJIIt(w, x). where the input vector x = (Xl, ... , xn) is an element of the set of patterns X C Rn. W E Ril is the weight vector. and y E Rm is the m-dimensional output. The possible networks that fit within the locally Lipschitzian framework include any network that has a continuous. piecewise differentiable description. i.e., continuous functions with nondifferentiable points ("non smooth functionstt). Training a network involves the selection of a weight vector W* which minimizes an error function E( w). As long as the error function E is locally Lipschitzian. then it can be trained by the procedure that we will outline. which is based upon a new technique for NSO [6]. In Section 2. a description of the difficulties that can occur when gradient methods are applied to nonsmooth problems is presented. In Section 3. a short overview of the BundleTrust algorithm [6] for NSO is presented. And in Section 4 details of applying a NSO procedure to training networks with an ?00 based error function are presented. along with simulation results that demonstrate the viability of the technique. 2 FAll..URE OF GRADIENT METHODS Two difficulties which arise when gradient methods are applied to nonsmooth problems will be discussed here. The first is that gradient descent sometimes fails to converge to a local minimum. and the second relates to the lack of a stopping criterion for gradient methods. 2.1 THE "JAMMING" EFFECT We will now show that gradient methods can fail to converge to a local minimum (the "jamming" effect [7.8]). The particular example used here is taken from [9]. Consider the following function. that has a minimum at the point w* = (0,0): fl(W) = 3(w? + 2wi). (1) If we start at the point Wo = (2,1). it is easily shown that a steepest descent algorithm2 would generate the sequence WI = (2, -1)/3. W2 = (2,1)/9 ?...? so that the sequence lThis is quite simple. using a theorem due to Krishnan [3]. lrrhis is achieved by repeatedly perfonning a line search along the steepest descent direction. 1057 1058 Redding and Downs nondifferenliable half-line ? Figure 1: A contour plot of the function h. = = {w/c} oscillates between points on the two half-lines Wl 2'lV2 and Wl -2'lV2 for Wl ~ O. converging to the optimal point w? = (0,0). Next. from the function ft. create a new function h in the following manner: (2) The gradient at any point of h is proportional to the gradient at the same point on It. so the sequence of points generated by a gradient descent algorithm starting from (2, 1) on h will be the same as the case for It. and will again converge3 to the optimal point. again w? (0,0). = Lastly. we shift the optimal point away from (0, 0), but keep a region including the sequence {w/c} unchanged to create a new function 13 (w): hew) = { V3(w?++41'lV21) 2wD ~(Wl if 0 ~ 1'lV21 elsewhere. ~ 2Wl (3) The new function 13, depicted in fig. 1, is continuous, has a discontinuous derivative only on the half-line Wl ~ O. 'lV2 = 0, and is convex with a "minimum" as Wl -- -00. In spite of this, the steepest descent algorithm still converges to the now nonoptimal "jamming" point (0, 0). A multitude of possible variations to It exist that will achieve a similar result, but the point is clear: gradient methods can lead to trouble when applied to non smooth problems. This lesson is important, because the backpropagation learning algorithm is a smooth gradient descent technique. and as such will have the difficulties described when it, or an extension (eg., [1]). are applied to a nonsmooth problem. 2.2 STOPPING CRITERION The second significant problem associated with smooth descent techniques in a nonsmooth context occurs with the stopping criterion. In normal smooth circumstances. a stopping 3Note that for this new sequence of points, the gradient no longer converges to 0 at (0,0), but oscillates between the values v'2(1, ?l). Learning in Feedforward Networks with Nonsmooth Functions criterion is determined using IIV'/II ~ (, (4) where ( is a small positive quantity determined by the required accuracy. However, it is frequently the case that the minimum of a non smooth function occurs at a nondifferentiable point or "kink", and the gradient is of little value around these points. For example, the gradient of /( w) Iwl has a magnitude of 1 no matter how close w is to the optimum at w = O. = 3 NONSMOOTH OYfIMIZATION For any locally Lipschitzian function /, the generalized directional derivative always exists, and can be used to define a generalized gradient or subdifferential, denoted by 8/. which , is a compact convex set4 [5]. A particular element g E 8/(w) is termed a subgradientof / at W [5,10]. In situations where / is strictly differentiable at w. the generalized gradient of / at W is equal to the gradient, i.e., 8/( w) = V' /( w). We will now discuss the basic aspects of NSO and in particular the Bundle-Trust (Bn algorithm [6]. Quite naturally. subgradients in NSO provide a substitute for the gradients in standard smooth optimization using gradient descent. Accordingly, in an NSO procedure, we require the following to be satisfied: At every w, we can compute /(w) and any g E 8/(w). (5) To overcome the jamming effect, however. it is not sufficient replace the gradient with a subgradient in a gradient descent algorithm - the strictly local information that this provides about the function's behaviour can be misleading. For example, an approach like this will not change the descent path taken from the starting point (2,1) on the function h (see fig. 1). The solution to this problem is to provide some "smearing" of the gradient information by enriching the information at w with knowledge of its surroundings. This can be achieved by replacing the strictly local subgradients g E 8/(w) by UVEB g E 8/(v) where B is a suitable neighbourhoodofw, and then define the (-generalized gradient 8 f /(w) as 8 /(w) f 6 co { u 8/(V)} (6) VEB(W,f) where ( > 0 and small, and co denotes a convex hull. These ideas were first used by [7] to overcome the lack of continuity in minimax problems, and have become the basis for extensive work in NSO. In an optimization procedure. points in a sequence {WI:, k = 0,1, ...} are visited until a point is reached at which a stopping criterion is satisfied. In a NSO procedure, this occurs when a point WI: is reached that satisfies the condition 0 E 8f /(wl:). and the point is said to be (-optimal. That is, in the case of convex /, the point WI: is (-optimal if (7) 4In other words, a set of vectors will define the generalized gradient of a non smooth function at a single point. rather than a single vector in the case of smooth functions. 1059 1060 Redding and Downs and in the case of nonconvex I. I(Wk) ~ I(w) + (IIW - w,,11 + (forall wEB (8) where B is some neighbourhood of Wk of nonzero dimension. Obviously. as ( ~ 0. then Wk ~ w? at which 0 E () I( w?). i.e., Wk is ''within (" of the local minimum w?. Usually the (-generalized gradient is not available. and this is why the bundle concept is introduced. The basic idea of a bundle concept in NSO is to replace the (-generalized gradient by some inner approximating polytope P which will then be used to compute a descent direction. If the polytope P is a sufficiently good approximation to I. then we will find a direction along which to descend (a so-called serious step). In the case where P is not a sufficiently good approximation to I to yield a descent direction. then we perfonn a null step. staying at our current position W. and try to improve P by adding another subgI'adient () I (v) at some nearby point v to our current position w. A natural way of approximating I is by using a cutting plane (CP) approximation. The CP approximation of I( w) at the point Wk is given by the expression [6] max {gNw - Wi) + I(Wi)}' (9) 1(i(k where gi is a subgradient of I at the point Wi. We see then that (9) provides a piecewise linear approximation of convexs I from below. which will coincide with I at all points Wi. For convenience, we redefine the CP approximation in terms of d W - Wk. d E Rb , the vector difference of the point of approximation. W. and the current point in the optimization sequence. Wk, giving the CP approximation I Cp of I: = I CP(Wk, d) = l(i(k max {g/d + g/(Wk - w;) + I(Wi)}. (10) Now, when the CP approximation is minimized to find a descent direction, there is no reason to trust the approximation far away from Wk. So, to discourage a large step size, a stabilizing term Ikd td. where tk is positive, is added to the CP approximation. If the CP approximation at Wk of I is good enough, then the dk given by dk = arg min I CP(Wk, d) + _1_d td d 2tk (11) will produce a descent direction such that a line search along Wk + Adk will find a new point Wk+l at which I(Wk+l) < I(Wk) (a serious step). It may happen that I Cp is such a poor approximation of I that a line search along dk is not a descent direction. or yields only a marginal improvement in I. If this occurs, a null step is taken and one enriches the bundle of subgradients from which the CP approximation is computed by adding a subgradient from () I (Wk + Adk) for small A > O. Each serious step guarantees a decrease in I. and a stopping criterion is provided by tenninating the algorithm as soon as dk in (11) satisfies the (-optimality criterion, at which point Wk is (-Optimal. These details are the basis of bundle methods in NSO [9,10]. The bundle method described suffers from a weak point: its success depends on the delicate selection of the parameter tk in (11) [6], This weakness has led to the incorporation of a "trust region" concept [11] into the bundle method to obtain the BT (bundle-trust) algorithm [6]. SIn the nonconVex f case, (9) is not an approximation to f from below, and additional tolerance parameters must be considered to accommodate this situation [6]. Learning in Feedforward Networks wirh Nonsmoorh Funcrions To incorporate a trust region, we define a "radius tt that defines a ball in which we can "trust" that fa> is a good approximation of f. In the BT algorithm, by following trust region concepts, the choice of t A: is not made a priori and is determined during the algorithm by varying tA: in a systematic way (trust part) and improving the CP approximation by null steps (bundle part) until a satisfactory CP approximation f a> is obtained along with a ball (in terms of t A:) on which we can trust the approximation. Then the dA: in (11) willlea1 to a substantial decrease in f. The full details of the BT algorithm can be found in [6], along with convergence proofs. 4 EXAMPLES 4.1 A SMOOTH NETWORK WITH NONSMOOTH ERROR FUNCTION The particular network example we consider here is a two-layer FFN (i.e.? one with a single layer of hidden units) where each output unit's value Yi is computed from its discriminant function Qo; WiO+ 2:7=1 Wij Zj, by the transfer function Yi tanh(Qo;), where Zj is the tanh(Qhj)' output of the j-th hidden unit. The j-th hidden unit's output Zj is given by Zj where QhL" VjO + 2:~=1 VjA:Xj is its discriminant function. The ?00 error function (which is locally ipschitzian) is defined to be = = = E(w) = xeX max = rJ?lX IQo, (x) - ti(X)I, l(.(m (12) where ti (x) is the desired output of output unit i for the input pattern x EX. To make use of the B T algorithm described in the previous section, it is necessary to obtain an expression from which a subgradient at w for E( w) in (12) can be computed. Using the generalized gradient calculus in [5, Proposition 2.3.12], a subgradientg E 8E(w) is given by the expression6 g = sgn (QO;I (x') - ti' (x')) VWQO;I (x') for some i', x' E .J (14) where .J is the set of patterns and output indices for which E (w) in (12) obtains it maximum value, and the gradient VWQO,I (x') is given by 1 Zj (1 - zJ)Wilj x1:(1 - ZJ)Wilj o (Note that here j w.r.t. Wi'O w.r.t. Wi'j w.r.t. VjO w.r.t. VjA: elsewhere. (15) = 1,2, ... , h and k = I, ... , n). The BT technique outlined in the previous section was applied to the standard XOR and 838 encoder problems using the ?00 error function in (12) and subgradients from (14,15). 6Note that for a function f(w) expression = Iwl = 8f(w) ={ max{w, -w}. the generalized gradient is given by the 1 w>o co{l, -l} x x -1 =0 <0 and a suitable subgradient g E 8 f (w) can be obtained by choosing g = sgn( w ). (13) 1061 1062 Redding and Downs In all test runs, the BT algorithm was run until convergence to a local minimum of the too error function occurred with (set at 10- 4 ? On the XOR problem, over 20 test runs using a randomly initialized 2-2-1 network, an average of 52 function and subgradient evaluations were required. The minimum number of function and subgradient evaluations required in the test runs was 23 and the maximum was 126. On the 838 encoder problem, over 20 test runs using a randomly initialized 8-3-8 network, an average of 334 function and subgradient evaluations were required. For this problem, the minimum number of function and subgradient evaluations required in the test runs was 221 and the maximum was 512. 4.2 A NON SMOOTH NETWORK AND NONSMOOTH ERROR FUNCTION In this section we will consider a particular example that employs a network function that is nonsmooth as well as a nonsmooth error function (the too error function of the previous example). Based on the piecewise-linear network employed by [12], let the i-th output of the network be given by the expression n Yi h = L "ikXk + L Wij k=1 j=1 n L VjkXk + VjO + WiO (16) ti(x)l. (17) k=1 with an too -based error function E(w) = xeK max m~ IYi(X) U;,'m Once again using the generalized gradient calculus from [5, Proposition 2.3.12], a single subgradient g E 8E(w) is given by the expression w.r.t. "i'k w.r.t. Wi'O w.r.t. Wi'j w.r.t. VjO w.r.t. Vjk elsewhere. (Note that j (18) = 1,2, ... , h, k = 1,2, ... , n). In all cases the (-stopping criterion is set at 10-4 ? On the XOR problem, over 20 test runs using a randomly initialized 2-2-1 network, an average of 43 function and subgradient evaluations were required. The minimum number of function and subgradient evaluations required in the test runs was 30 and the maximum was 60. On the 838 encoder problem, over 20 test runs using a randomly initialized 8-3-8 network, an average of 445 function and subgradient evaluations were required. For this problem, the minimum number of function and subgradient evaluations required in the test runs was 386 and the maximum was 502. 5 CONCLUSIONS We have demonstrated the viability of employing NSO for training networks in the case where standard procedures, with their implicit smoothness assumption, would have difficulties or find impossible. The particular nonsmooth examples we considered involved an error function based on the too norm, for the case of a network with sigmoidal characteristics and a network with a piecewise-linear characteristic. Learning in Feedforward Networks with Nonsmooth Functions Nonsmooth optimization problems can be dealt with in many different ways. A possible alternative approach to the one presented here (that works for most NSO problems) is to express the problem as a composite function and then solve it using the exact penalty method (termed composite NSO) [11]. Fletcher [11, p. 358] states that in practice this can require a great deal of storage or be too complicated to formulate. In contrast, the BT algorithm solves the more general basic NSO problem and so can be more widely applied than techniques based on composite functions. The BT algorithm is simpler to set up, but this can be at the cost of algorithm complexity and a computational overhead. The BT algorithm, however, does retain the gradient descent flavour of backpropagation because it uses the generalized gradient concept along with a chain rule for computing these (generalized) gradients. Nongradient-based and stochastic methods for NSO do exist, but they were not considered here because they do not retain the gradient-based deterministic flavour. It would be useful to see if these other techniques are faster for practical problems. The message should be clear however - smooth gradient techniques should be treated with suspicion when a nonsmooth problem is encountered, and in general the more complicated nonsmooth methods should be employed. References [1] P. Burrascano, "A norm selection criterion for the generalized delta rule," IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 2 (1991), 125-130. [2] N. J. Redding, "Some Aspects of Representation and Learning in Artificial Neural Networks," University of Queensland, PhD Thesis, June, 1991. [3] T. Krishnan, "On the threshold order of a Boolean function," IEEE Transactions on Electronic Computers EC-15 (1966),369-372. [4] M. L. Brady, R. Raghavan & J. Slawny, "Backpropagation fails to separate where perceptrons succeed," IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems 36 (1989). [5] F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Canadian Mathematical Society Series of Monographs and Advanced Texts, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, 1983. [6] H. Schramm & J. Zowe, "A version of the bundle idea for minimizing a nonsmooth function: conceptual ideas, convergence analysis, numerical results," SIAM Journal on Optimization (1991), to appear. [7] V. F. Dem'yanov & V. N. Malozemov, Introduction to Minimax, John Wiley & Sons, New York,NY, 1974. [8] P. Wolfe, "A method of conjugate subgradients for minimizing nondifferentiable functions," in Nondifferentiable Optimization, M. L. Balinski & P. Wolfe, eds., Mathematical Programming Study #3, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1975,145-173. [9] C. Lemarechal, ''Nondifferentiable Optimization," in Optimization, G. L. Nemhauser, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan & M. J. Todd, eds., Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science #1, North-Holland,Amsterdam, 1989,529-572. [10] K. C. Kiwiel, Methods of Descent for Nondifferentiable Optimization, Leet. Notes in Math. # 1133, Springer-Verlag, New York-Heidelberg-Berlin, 1985. [11] R. Fletcher, Practical Methods of Optimization second edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, 1987. [12] R. Batruni, "A multilayer neural network with piecewise-linear structure and backpropagation learning," IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 2 (1991),395-403. 1063
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Linear Convergence with Condition Number Independent Access of Full Gradients Lijun Zhang Mehrdad Mahdavi Rong Jin Department of Computer Science and Engineering Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA {zhanglij,mahdavim,rongjin}@msu.edu Abstract For smooth and strongly convex optimizations, the optimal iteration complexity of ? the gradient-based algorithm is O( ? log 1/?), where ? is the condition number. In the case that the optimization problem is ill-conditioned, we need to evaluate a large number of full gradients, which could be computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose to remove the dependence on the condition number by allowing the algorithm to access stochastic gradients of the objective function. To this end, we present a novel algorithm named Epoch Mixed Gradient Descent (EMGD) that is able to utilize two kinds of gradients. A distinctive step in EMGD is the mixed gradient descent, where we use a combination of the full and stochastic gradients to update the intermediate solution. Theoretical analysis shows that EMGD is able to find an ?-optimal solution by computing O(log 1/?) full gradients and O(?2 log 1/?) stochastic gradients. 1 Introduction Convex optimization has become a tool central to many areas of engineering and applied sciences, such as signal processing [20] and machine learning [24]. The problem of convex optimization is typically given as min F (w), w?W where W is a convex domain, and F (?) is a convex function. In most cases, the optimization algorithm for solving the above problem is an iterative process, and the convergence rate is characterized by the iteration complexity, i.e., the number of iterations needed to find an ?-optimal solution [3,17]. In this study, we focus on first order methods, where we only have the access to the (stochastic) gradient of the objective function. For most convex optimization problems, the iteration complexity of an optimization algorithm depends on the following two factors. 1. The analytical properties of the objective function. For example, is F (?) smooth or strongly convex? 2. The information that can be elicited about the objective function. For example, do we have access to the full gradient or the stochastic gradient of F (?)? The optimal iteration complexities for some popular combinations of the above two factors are summarized in Table 1 and elaborated in the related work section. We observe that when the objective function is smooth (and strongly convex), the convergence rate for full gradients is much faster than that for stochastic gradients. On the other hand, the evaluation of a stochastic gradient is usually significantly more efficient than that of a full gradient. Thus, replacing full gradients with stochastic gradients essentially trades the number of iterations with a low computational cost per iteration. 1 Table 1: The optimal iteration complexity of convex optimization. L and ? are the moduli of smoothness and strong convexity, respectively. ? = L/? is the condition number. Full Gradient Stochastic Gradient Lipschitz continuous  O ?12  O ?12 Smooth   O ?L?  O ?12 Smooth & Strongly Convex  ? O ? log 1?  1 O ?? In this work, we consider the case when the objective function is both smooth and strongly convex, ? where the optimal iteration complexity is O( ? log 1? ) if the optimization method is first order and has access to the full gradients [17]. For the optimization problems that are ill-conditioned, the condition number ? can be very large, leading to many evaluations of full gradients, an operation that is computationally expensive for large data sets. To reduce the computational cost, we are interested in the ? possibility of making the number of full gradients required independent from ?. Although the O( ? log 1? ) rate is in general not improvable for any first order method, we bypass this difficulty by allowing the algorithm to have access ? to both full and stochastic gradients. Our objective is to reduce the iteration complexity from O( ? log 1? ) to O(log 1? ) by replacing most of the evaluations of full gradients with the evaluations of stochastic gradients. Under the assumption that stochastic gradients can be computed efficiently, this tradeoff could lead to a significant improvement in computational efficiency. To this end, we developed a novel optimization algorithm named Epoch Mixed Gradient Descent (EMGD). It divides the optimization process into a sequence of epochs, an idea that is borrowed from the epoch gradient descent [9]. At each epoch, the proposed algorithm performs mixed gradient descent by evaluating one full gradient and O(?2 ) stochastic gradients. It achieves a constant reduction in the optimization error for every epoch, leading to a linear convergence rate. Our analysis shows that EMGD is able to find an ?-optimal solution by computing O(log 1? ) full gradients and O(?2 log 1? ) stochastic gradients. In other words, with the help of stochastic gradients, the number ? of full gradients required is reduced from O( ? log 1? ) to O(log 1? ), independent from the condition number. 2 Related Work During the last three decades, there have been significant advances in convex optimization [3,15,17]. In this section, we provide a brief review of the first order optimization methods. We first discuss deterministic optimization, where the gradient of the objective function is available. For the general convex and Lipschitz continuous optimization problem, the iteration complexity of gradient (subgradient) descent is O( ?12 ), which is optimal up to constant factors [15]. When the objective function is convex and smooth, the optimal optimization scheme is the accelerated gradient descent developed by Nesterov, whose iteration complexity is O( ?L? ) [16, 18]. With slight modifications, the accelerated gradient descent algorithm can also be applied ? to optimize the smooth and strongly convex objective function, whose iteration complexity is O( ? log 1? ) and is in general not improvable [17, 19]. The objective of our work is to reduce the number of accesses to the full gradients by exploiting the availability of stochastic gradients. In stochastic optimization, we have access to the stochastic gradient, which is an unbiased estimate of the full gradient [14]. Similar to the case in deterministic optimization, if the objective function is convex and Lipschitz continuous, stochastic gradient (subgradient) descent is the optimal algorithm and the iteration complexity is also O( ?12 ) [14, 15]. When the objective function is ?-strongly 1 convex, the algorithms proposed in very recent works [9, 10, 21, 26] achieve the optimal O( ?? ) iteration complexity [1]. Since the convergence rate of stochastic optimization is dominated by the randomness in the gradient [6, 11], smoothness usually does not lead to a faster convergence rate for stochastic optimization. A variant of stochastic optimization is the ?semi-stochastic? approximation, which interleave stochastic gradient descent and full gradient descent [12]. In the strongly convex case, if the stochastic gradients are taken at a decreasing rate, the convergence rate can be improved 1 ) [13]. to approach O( ?? ? 2 From the above discussion, we observe that the iteration complexity in stochastic optimization is polynomial in 1? , making it difficult to find high-precision solutions. However, when the objective function is strongly convex and can be written as a sum of a finite number of functions, i.e., n F (w) = 1X fi (w), n i=1 (1) where each fi (?) is smooth, the iteration complexity of some specific algorithms may exhibit a logarithmic dependence on 1? , i.e., a linear convergence rate. The two very recent works are the stochastic average gradient (SAG) [22], whose iteration complexity is O(n log 1? ), provided n ? 8?, and the stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SDCA) [23], whose iteration complexity is O((n + ?) log 1? ).1 Under approximate conditions, the incremental gradient method [2] and the hybrid method [5] can also minimize the function in (1) with a linear convergence rate. But those algorithms usually treat one pass of all fi ?s (or the subset of fi ?s) as one iteration, and thus have high computational cost per iteration. 3 3.1 Epoch Mixed Gradient Descent Preliminaries In this paper, we assume there exist two oracles. 1. The first one is a gradient oracle Og , which for a given input point w ? W returns the gradient ?F (w), that is, Og (w) = ?F (w). 2. The second one is a function oracle Of , each call of which returns a random function f (?), such that F (w) = Ef [f (w)], ?w ? W, and f (?) is L-smooth, that is, k?f (w) ? ?f (w? )k ? Lkw ? w? k, ?w, w? ? W. (2) Although we do not define a stochastic gradient oracle directly, the function oracle Of allows us to evaluate the stochastic gradient of F (?) at any point w ? W. Notice that the assumption about the function oracle Of implies that the objective function F (?) is also L-smooth. Since ?F (w) = Ef ?f (w), by Jensen?s inequality, we have (2) k?F (w) ? ?F (w? )k ? Ef k?f (w) ? ?f (w? )k ? Lkw ? w? k, ?w, w? ? W. (3) Besides, we further assume F (?) is ?-strongly convex, that is, k?F (w) ? ?F (w? )k ? ?kw ? w? k, ?w, w? ? W. (4) From (3) and (4), it is obvious that L ? ?. The condition number ? is defined as the ratio between them. i.e., ? = L/? ? 1. 3.2 The Algorithm The detailed steps of the proposed Epoch Mixed Gradient Descent (EMGD) are shown in Algorithm 1, where we use the superscript for the index of epoches, and the subscript for the index of iterations at each epoch. We denote by B(x; r) the ?2 ball of radius r around the point x. Similar to the epoch gradient descent (EGD) [9], we divided the optimization process into a sequence of epochs (step 3 to step 10). While the number of accesses to the gradient oracle in EGD increases exponentially over the epoches, the number of accesses to the two oracles in EMGD is fixed. 1 In order to apply SDCA, we need to assume each function fi is ?-strongly convex, so that we can rewrite fi (w) as gi (w) + ?2 kwk2 , where gi (w) = fi (w) ? ?2 kwk2 is convex. 3 Algorithm 1 Epoch Mixed Gradient Descent (EMGD) Input: step size ?, the initial domain size ?1 , the number of iterations T per epoch, and the number of epoches m ?1 = 0 1: Initialize w 2: for k = 1, . . . , m do ?k 3: Set w1k = w ? k) 4: Call the gradient oracle Og to obtain ?F (w 5: for t = 1, . . . , T do 6: Call the function oracle Of to obtain a random function ftk (?) 7: Compute the mixed gradient as ?tk = ?F (w ? k ) + ?ftk (wtk ) ? ?ftk (w ? k) g 8: Update the solution by k wt+1 = 9: end for ? k+1 = 10: Set w 11: end for 1 T +1 ? m+1 Return w PT +1 t=1 argmin ? k ;?k ) w?W?B(w 1 ?tk i + kw ? wtk k2 ?hw ? wtk , g 2 ? wtk and ?k+1 = ?k / 2 ? k obtained At the beginning of each epoch, we initialize the solution w1k to be the average solution w k ? ). At each iteration t from the last epoch, and then call the gradient oracle Og to obtain ?F (w of epoch k, we call the function oracle Of to obtain a random function ftk (?) and define the mixed gradient at the current solution wtk as ?tk = ?F (w ? k ) + ?ftk (wtk ) ? ?ftk (w ? k ), g which involves both the full gradient and the stochastic gradient. The mixed gradient can be divided ? k ) and the stochastic part ?ftk (wtk ) ? ?ftk (w ? k ). Due into two parts: the deterministic part ?F (w k to the smoothness property of ft (?) and the shrinkage of the domain size, the norm of the stochastic part is well bounded, which is the reason why our algorithm can achieve linear convergence. Based on the mixed gradient, we update wtk by a gradient mapping over a shrinking domain (i.e., ? k ; ?k )) in step 8. Since the updating is similar to the standard gradient descent except for W ? B(w the domain constraint, we refer to it as mixed gradient descent for short. At the end of the iteration for epoch k, we compute the average value ? of T + 1 solutions, instead of T solutions, and update the domain size by reducing a factor of 2. 3.3 The Convergence Rate The following theorem shows the convergence rate of the proposed algorithm. Theorem 1. Assume ??e ?1/2 1152L2 1 ln , and ?1 ? max , T ? ?2 ? r 2 (F (0) ? F (w? )). ? (5) ? ? m+1 be the solution returned by Algorithm 1 after m epoches that has m Set ? = 1/[L T ]. Let w accesses to oracle Og and mT accesses to oracle Of . Then, with a probability at least 1 ? m?, we have [?1 ]2 ?[?1 ]2 ? m+1 ? w? k2 ? m . ? m+1 ) ? F (w? ) ? m+1 , and kw F (w 2 2 Theorem 1 immediately implies that EMGD is able to achieve an ? optimization error by computing O(log 1? ) full gradients and O(?2 log 1? ) stochastic gradients. 4 Table 2: The computational complexity for minimizing Nesterov?s algorithm [17]  ? O ?n log 1? 3.4 EMGD 2 O (n + ? ) log 1 ?  1 n Pn SAG (n ? 8?) [22]  O n log 1? i=1 fi (w) SDCA [23] O (n + ?) log 1 ?  Comparisons Compared to the optimization algorithms that only rely?on full gradients [17], the number of full gradients needed in EMGD is O(log 1? ) instead of O( ? log 1? ). Compared to the optimization algorithms that only rely on stochastic gradients [9,10,21], EMGD is more efficient since it achieves a linear convergence rate. The proposed EMGD algorithmP can also be applied to the special optimization problem considered n in [22, 23], where F (w) = n1 i=1 fi (w). To make quantitative comparisons, let?s assume the full gradient is n times more expensive to compute than the stochastic gradient. Table 2 lists the computational complexities of the algorithms that enjoy linear convergence. As can be seen, the computational complexity of EMGD is lower than Nesterov?s algorithm [17] as long as the condition number ? ? n2/3 , the complexity of SAG [22] is lower than Nesterov?s algorithm if ? ? n/8, and the complexity of SDCA [23] is lower than Nesterov?s algorithm if ? ? n2 .2 The complexity of EMGD is on the same order as SAG and SDCA when ? ? n1/2 , but higher in other cases. Thus, in terms of computational cost, EMGD may not be the best one, but it has advantages in other aspects. 1. Unlike SAG and SDCA that only work for unconstrained optimization problem, the proposed algorithm works for both constrained and unconstrained optimization problems, provided that the constrained problem in Step 8 can be solved efficiently. 2. Unlike the SAG and SDCA that require an ?(n) storage space, the proposed algorithm only requires the storage space of ?(d), where d is the dimension of w. 3. The only step in Algorithm 1 that has dependence on n is step 4 for computing the gradient ? k ). By utilizing distributed computing, the running time of this step can be reduced ?F (w to O(n/k), where k is the number of computers, and the convergence rate remains the same. For SAG and SDCA , it is unclear whether they can reduce the running time without affecting the convergence rate. 4. The linear convergence of SAG and SDCA only holds in expectation, whereas the linear convergence of EMGD holds with a high probability, which is much stronger. 4 The Analysis In the proof, we frequently use the following property of strongly convex functions [9]. Lemma 1. Let f (x) be a ?-strongly convex function over the domain X , and x? argminx?X f (x). Then, for any x ? X , we have f (x) ? f (x? ) ? 4.1 ? kx ? x? k2 . 2 = (6) The Main Idea The Proof of Theorem 1 is based on induction. From the assumption about ?1 in (5), we have (5) ? 1 ) ? F (w? ) ? F (w (5), (6) ?[?1 ]2 ? 1 ? w? k2 ? [?1 ]2 , , and kw 2 P ? In machine learning, we usually face a regularized optimization problem minw?W n1 n i=1 ?(yi ; xi w) + where ?(?; ?) is some loss function. When the norm of the data is bounded, the smoothness parameter L can be treated as a constant. The strong convexity parameter ? is lower bounded by ? . Thus, as long as ? > ?(n?2/3 ), which is a reasonable scenario [25], we have ? < O(n2/3 ), indicating our proposed EMGD can be applied. 2 ? kwk2 , 2 5 which means Theorem 1 is true for m = 0. Suppose Theorem 1 is true for m = k. That is, with a probability at least 1 ? k?, we have ?[?1 ]2 [?1 ]2 ? k+1 ) ? F (w? ) ? k+1 , and kw ? k+1 ? w? k2 ? F (w . 2 2k Our goal is to show that after running the k+1-th epoch, with a probability at least 1 ? (k + 1)?, we have [?1 ]2 ?[?1 ]2 ? k+2 ? w? k2 ? k+1 . ? k+2 ) ? F (w? ) ? k+2 , and kw F (w 2 2 4.2 The Details ? be the solution obtained For the simplicity of presentation, we drop the index k for epoch. Let w from the epoch k. Given the condition ? ? ? w? k2 ? ?2 , ? ? F (w? ) ? ?2 , and kw (7) F (w) 2 b we will show that after running the T iterations in one epoch, the new solution, denoted by w, satisfies 1 ? b ? w? k2 ? ?2 , b ? F (w? ) ? ?2 , and kw (8) F (w) 4 2 with a probability at least 1 ? ?. Define ? Fb (w) = F (w) ? hw, gi, and gt (w) = ft (w) ? hw, ?ft (w)i. ? g = ?F (w), The objective function can be rewritten as F (w) = hw, gi + Fb (w). (9) (10) And the mixed gradient can be rewritten as ? k = g + ?gt (wt ). g Then, the updating rule given in Algorithm 1 becomes wt+1 = argmin ? w?W?B(w,?) 1 ?hw ? wt , g + ?gt (wt )i + kw ? wt k2 . 2 (11) Notice that the objective function in (11) is 1-strongly convex. Using the fact that w? ? W ? ? ?) and Lemma 1 (with x? = wt+1 and x = w? ), we have B(w; 1 ?hwt+1 ? wt , g + ?gt (wt )i + kwt+1 ? wt k2 2 (12) 1 ? 1 ? ??hw ? wt , g + ?gt (wt )i + kw ? wt k2 ? kw? ? wt+1 k2 . 2 2 For each iteration t in the current epoch, we have F (wt ) ? F (w? ) ? kwt ? w? k2 2 D E ? (10) = hg + ?gt (wt ), wt ? w? i + ?Fb (wt ) ? ?gt (wt ), wt ? w? ? kwt ? w? k2 , 2 (4) ?h?F (wt ), wt ? w? i ? and (13) hg + ?gt (wt ), wt ? w? i kwt ? w? k2 kwt+1 ? w? k2 kwt ? wt+1 k2 ? ? 2? 2? 2? kwt ? w? k2 kwt+1 ? w? k2 ?hg, wt ? wt+1 i + ? 2? 2?   kwt ? wk2 + max h?gt (wt ), wt ? wi ? w 2? kwt ? w? k2 kwt+1 ? w? k2 ? =hg, wt ? wt+1 i + ? + k?gt (wt )k2 . 2? 2? 2 (12) ? hg + ?gt (wt ), wt ? wt+1 i + 6 (14) Combining (13) and (14), we have F (wt ) ? F (w? ) kwt ? w? k2 kwt+1 ? w? k2 ? ? ? kwt ? w? k2 2? 2? 2 E D ? + hg, wt ? wt+1 i + k?gt (wt )k2 + ?Fb (wt ) ? ?gt (wt ), wt ? w? . 2 By adding the inequalities of all iterations, we have ? T X t=1 ? (F (wt ) ? F (w? )) T ? ? w? k2 kwT +1 ? w? k2 ?X kw ? ? wT +1 i kwt ? w? k2 + hg, w ? ? 2? 2? 2 t=1 + ? 2 T X t=1 | k?gt (wt )k2 + {z ,AT Since F (?) is L-smooth, we have } T X t=1 | (15) h?Fb (wt ) ? ?gt (wt ), wt ? w? i . {z } ,BT ? ? h?F (w), ? wT +1 ? wi ? + F (wT +1 ) ? F (w) L ? ? wT +1 k2 , kw 2 which implies ? ? wT +1 i ? F (w) ? ? F (wT +1 ) + hg, w L 2 ? 2 L ? ? F (w ) ? F (wT +1 ) + ?2 + ?2 ? F (w? ) ? F (wT +1 ) + L?2 . 2 2 From (15) and (16), we have   T +1 X 1 ? (F (wt ) ? F (w? )) ? ?2 + L + AT + BT . 2? 2 t=1 (7) (16) ? (17) Next, we consider how to bound AT and BT . The upper bound of AT is given by AT = T X t=1 k?gt (wt )k2 = T X t=1 (2) ? 2 ? L2 k?ft (wt ) ? ?ft (w)k T X t=1 ? 2 ? T L2 ?2 . kwt ? wk (18) To bound BT , we need the Hoeffding-Azuma inequality stated below [4]. Lemma 2. Let V1 , V2 , . . . be a martingale difference sequence with respect to some sequence X1 , X2 , . . . such that Vi ? [Ai , Ai + ci ] for some random variable Ai , measurable with respect Pn to X1 , . . . , Xi?1 and a positive constant ci . If Sn = i=1 Vi , then for any t > 0,   2t2 Pr[Sn > t] ? exp ? Pn 2 . i=1 ci Define Vt = h?Fb (wt ) ? ?gt (wt ), wt ? w? i, t = 1, . . . , T. Recall the definition of Fb (?) and gt (?) in (9). Based on our assumption about the function oracle Of , it is straightforward to check that V1 , . . . is a martingale difference with respect to g1 , . . .. The value of Vt can be bounded by |Vt | ? b ?F (wt ) ? ?gt (wt ) kwt ? w? k ? ? + k?ft (wt ) ? ?ft (w)k) ? 2? (k?F (wt ) ? ?F (w)k ? ? ? 4L?2 . 4L?kwt ? wk (2), (3) 7 Following Lemma 2, with a probability at least 1 ? ?, we have r 1 2 BT ? 4L? 2T ln . ? (19) By adding the inequalities in (17), (18) and (19) together, with a probability at least 1 ? ?, we have ! r T +1 X 1 ?T L2 1 ? 2 (F (wt ) ? F (w )) ? ? . +L+ + 4L 2T ln 2? 2 ? t=1 ? By choosing ? = 1/[L T ], we have ! r r T +1 X ? 1 (5) 1 ? 2 2 (F (wt ) ? F (w )) ? L? (20) T + 1 + 4 2T ln ? 6L? 2T ln , ? ? t=1 where in the second inequality we use the condition ? ? e?1/2 in (5). By Jensen?s inequality, we have p T +1 (20) 1 X ? 2 6L 2 ln 1/? ? ? b ? F (w ) ? , (F (wt ) ? F (w )) ? ? F (w) T + 1 t=1 T +1 and therefore (6) Thus, when b ? w? k2 ? kw p 12L 2 ln 1/? 2 ? b ? F (w? ) ? ?2 . F (w) ? ? T +1 T ? 1152L2 1 ln , ?2 ? with a probability at least 1 ? ?, we have 5 b ? F (w? ) ? F (w) Conclusion and Future Work 1 ? 2 b ? w? k2 ? ?2 . ? , and kw 4 2 In this paper, we consider how to reduce the number of full gradients needed for smooth and strongly convex optimization problems. Under the assumption that both the gradient and the stochastic gradient are available, a novel algorithm named Epoch Mixed Gradient Descent (EMGD) is proposed. Theoretical analysis shows that with ? the help of stochastic gradients, we are able to reduce the number of gradients needed from O( ? log 1? ) to O(log 1? ). In the case that the objective function is in the form of (1), i.e., a sum of n smooth functions, EMGD has lower computational cost than the full gradient method [17], if the condition number ? ? n2/3 . In practice, a drawback of EMGD is that it requires the condition number ? is known beforehand. We will interstage how to find a good estimation of ? in future. When the objective function is 2 a sum of some special functions, such as the square loss (i.e., (yi ? x? i w) ), we can estimate the condition number by sampling. In particular, the Hessian matrix estimated from a subset of functions, combined with the concentration inequalities for matrix [7], can be used to bound the eigenvalues of the true Hessian matrix and consequentially ?. Furthermore, if there exists a strongly convex regularizer in the objective function, which happens in many machine learning problems [8], the knowledge of the regularizer itself allows us to find an upper bound of ?. Acknowledgments This work is partially supported by ONR Award N000141210431 and NSF (IIS-1251031). 8 References [1] A. Agarwal, P. L. Bartlett, P. Ravikumar, and M. J. Wainwright. Information-theoretic lower bounds on the oracle complexity of stochastic convex optimization. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 58(5):3235?3249, 2012. [2] D. P. Bertsekas. A new class of incremental gradient methods for least squares problems. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 7(4):913?926, 1997. [3] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [4] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [5] M. Friedlander and M. Schmidt. Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods for data fitting. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 34(3):A1380?A1405, 2012. [6] S. Ghadimi and G. Lan. Optimal stochastic approximation algorithms for strongly convex stochastic composite optimization i: a generic algorithmic framework. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 22(4):1469? 1492, 2012. [7] A. Gittens and J. A. Tropp. Tail bounds for all eigenvalues of a sum of random matrices. ArXiv e-prints, arXiv:1104.4513, 2011. [8] T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and J. Friedman. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer New York, 2009. [9] E. Hazan and S. Kale. Beyond the regret minimization barrier: an optimal algorithm for stochastic strongly-convex optimization. In Proceedings of the 24th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, pages 421?436, 2011. [10] A. Juditsky and Y. Nesterov. Primal-dual subgradient methods for minimizing uniformly convex functions. Technical report, 2010. [11] G. Lan. An optimal method for stochastic composite optimization. Mathematical Programming, 133:365? 397, 2012. [12] K. Marti. On solutions of stochastic programming problems by descent procedures with stochastic and deterministic directions. Methods of Operations Research, 33:281?293, 1979. [13] K. Marti and E. Fuchs. Rates of convergence of semi-stochastic approximation procedures for solving stochastic optimization problems. Optimization, 17(2):243?265, 1986. [14] A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, and A. Shapiro. Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 19(4):1574?1609, 2009. [15] A. Nemirovski and D. B. Yudin. Problem complexity and method efficiency in optimization. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1983. [16] Y. Nesterov. A method for unconstrained convex minimization problem with the rate of convergence O(1/k2 ). Doklady AN SSSR (translated as Soviet. Math. Docl.), 269:543?547, 1983. [17] Y. Nesterov. Introductory lectures on convex optimization: a basic course, volume 87 of Applied optimization. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004. [18] Y. Nesterov. Smooth minimization of non-smooth functions. Mathematical Programming, 103(1):127? 152, 2005. [19] Y. Nesterov. Gradient methods for minimizing composite objective function. Core discussion papers, 2007. [20] D. P. Palomar and Y. C. Eldar, editors. Convex Optimization in Signal Processing and Communications. 2010, Cambridge University Press. [21] A. Rakhlin, O. Shamir, and K. Sridharan. Making gradient descent optimal for strongly convex stochastic optimization. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 449?456, 2012. [22] N. L. Roux, M. Schmidt, and F. Bach. A stochastic gradient method with an exponential convergence rate for finite training sets. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2672?2680, 2012. [23] S. Shalev-Shwartz and T. Zhang. Stochastic dual coordinate ascent methods for regularized loss minimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14:567?599, 2013. [24] S. Sra, S. Nowozin, and S. J. Wright, editors. Optimization for Machine Learning. The MIT Press, 2011. [25] Q. Wu and D.-X. Zhou. Svm soft margin classifiers: Linear programming versus quadratic programming. Neural Computation, 17(5):1160?1187, 2005. [26] L. Zhang, T. Yang, R. Jin, and X. He. O(log T ) projections for stochastic optimization of smooth and strongly convex functions. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 621?629, 2013. 9
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Mixed Optimization for Smooth Functions Mehrdad Mahdavi Lijun Zhang Rong Jin Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Michigan State University, MI, USA {mahdavim,zhanglij,rongjin}@msu.edu Abstract It is well known that the optimal convergence rate for stochastic optimization of ? smooth functions is O(1/ T ), which is same as stochastic optimization of Lipschitz continuous convex functions. This is in contrast to optimizing smooth functions using full gradients, which yields a convergence rate of O(1/T 2 ). In this work, we consider a new setup for optimizing smooth functions, termed as Mixed Optimization, which allows to access both a stochastic oracle and a full gradient oracle. Our goal is to significantly improve the convergence rate of stochastic optimization of smooth functions by having an additional small number of accesses to the full gradient oracle. We show that, with an O(ln T ) calls to the full gradient oracle and an O(T ) calls to the stochastic oracle, the proposed mixed optimization algorithm is able to achieve an optimization error of O(1/T ). 1 Introduction Many machine learning algorithms follow the framework of empirical risk minimization, which often can be cast into the following generic optimization problem n 1? (1) gi (w), min G(w) := w?W n i=1 where n is the number of training examples, gi (w) encodes the loss function related to the ith training example (xi , yi ), and W is a bounded convex domain that is introduced to regularize the solution w ? W (i.e., the smaller the size of W, the stronger the regularization is). In this study, we focus on the learning problems for which the loss function gi (w) is smooth. Examples of smooth loss functions include least square with gi (w) = (yi ??w, xi ?)2 and logistic regression with gi (w) = log (1 + exp(?yi ?w, xi ?)). Since the regularization is enforced through the restricted domain W, we did not introduce a ?2 regularizer ??w?2 /2 into the optimization problem and as a result, we do not assume the loss function to be strongly convex. We note that a small ?2 regularizer does NOT improve the convergence rate of stochastic optimization. More specifically, the ? convergence rate?for stochastically optimizing a ?2 regularized loss function remains as O(1/ T ) when ? = O(1/ T ) [11, Theorem 1], a scenario that is often encountered in real-world applications. A preliminary approach for solving the optimization problem in (1) is the batch gradient descent (GD) algorithm [16]. It starts with some initial point, and iteratively updates the solution using the equation wt+1 = ?W (wt ? ??G(wt )), where ?W (?) is the orthogonal projection onto the convex domain W. It has been shown that for smooth objective functions, the convergence rate of standard GD is O(1/T ) [16], and can be improved to O(1/T 2 ) by an accelerated GD algorithm [15, 16, 18]. The main shortcoming of GD method is its high cost in computing the full gradient ?G(wt ) when the number of training examples is large. Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) [3, 13, 21] alleviates this limitation of GD by sampling one (or a small set of) examples and computing a stochastic (sub)gradient at each iteration based on the sampled examples. Since the computational cost of SGD per iteration is independent of the size of the data (i.e., n), it is usually appealing for largescale learning and optimization. While SGD enjoys a high computational efficiency per iteration, it suffers from a slow convergence rate for optimizing smooth functions. It has been shown in [14] that the effect of the stochastic noise 1 Full (GD) Os ?1 1 0 T Setting Lipschitz Convergence Smooth 1 T2 0 Stochastic (SGD) Os Of ?1 T 0 T Of T Convergence T ?1 T T 0 Mixed Optimization Os Of ? ? ? Convergence 1 T T log T Table 1: The convergence rate (O), number of calls to stochastic oracle (Os ), and number of calls to full gradient oracle (Of ) for optimizing Lipschitz continuous and smooth convex functions, using full GD, SGD, and mixed optimization methods, measured in the number of iterations T . ? cannot be decreased with a better rate than O(1/ T ) which is significantly worse than GD that uses the full gradients for updating the solutions and this limitation is also valid when the target function is smooth. In addition, as we can see from Table 1, for general Lipschitz functions, SGD exhibits the same convergence rate as that for the smooth functions, implying that smoothness is essentially not very useful and can not be exploited in stochastic optimization. The slow convergence rate for stochastically optimizing smooth loss functions is mostly due to the variance in stochastic gradients: unlike the full gradient case where the norm of a gradient approaches to zero when the solution is approaching to the optimal solution, in stochastic optimization, the norm of a stochastic gradient is constant even when the solution is close to the ? optimal solution. It is the variance in stochastic gradients that makes the convergence rate O(1/ T ) unimprovable in smooth setting [14, 1]. In this study, we are interested in designing an efficient algorithm that is in the same spirit of SGD but can effectively leverage the smoothness of the loss function to achieve a significantly faster convergence rate. To this end, we consider a new setup for optimization that allows us to interplay between stochastic and deterministic gradient descent methods. In particular, we assume that the optimization algorithm has an access to two oracles: ? A stochastic oracle Os that returns the loss function gi (w) and its gradient based on the sampled training example (xi , yi ) 2 , and ? A full gradient oracle Of that returns the gradient ?G(w) for any given solution w ? W. We refer to this new setting as mixed optimization in order to distinguish it from both stochastic and full gradient optimization models. The key question we examined in this study is: Is it possible to improve the convergence rate for stochastic optimization of smooth functions by having a small number of calls to the full gradient oracle Of ? We give an affirmative answer to this question. We show that with an additional O(ln T ) accesses to the full gradient oracle Of , the proposed algorithm, referred to as M IXED G RAD, can improve the convergence rate for stochastic optimization of smooth functions to O(1/T ), the same rate for stochastically optimizing a strongly convex function [11, 19, 23]. M IXED G RAD builds off on multistage methods [11] and operates in epochs, but involves novel ingredients so as to obtain an O(1/T ) rate for smooth losses. In particular, we form a sequence of strongly convex objective functions to be optimized at each epoch and decrease the amount of regularization and shrink the domain as the algorithm proceeds. The full gradient oracle Of is only called at the beginning of each epoch. Finally, we would like to distinguish mixed optimization from hybrid methods that use growing sample-sizes as optimization method proceeds to gradually transform the iterates into the full gradient method [9] and batch gradient with varying sample sizes [6], which unfortunately make the iterations to be dependent to the sample size n as opposed to SGD. In contrast, M IXED G RAD is as an alternation of deterministic and stochastic gradient steps, with different of frequencies for each type of steps. Our result for mixed optimization is useful for the scenario when the full gradient of the objective function can be computed relatively efficient although it is still significantly more expensive than computing a stochastic gradient. An example of such a scenario is distributed computing where the computation of full gradients can be speeded up by having it run in parallel on many machines with each machine containing a relatively small subset of the entire training data. Of course, the latency due to the communication between machines will result in an additional cost for computing the full gradient in a distributed fashion. Outline The rest of this paper is organized as follows. We begin in Section 2 by briefly reviewing the literature on deterministic and stochastic optimization. In Section 3, we introduce the necessary definitions and discuss the assumptions that underlie our analysis. Section 4 describes the M IXED G RAD algorithm and states the main result on its convergence rate. The proof of main result is given in Section 5. Finally, Section 6 concludes the paper and discusses few open questions. 1 The convergence rate can be improved to O(1/T ) when the structure of the objective function is provided. We note that the stochastic oracle assumed in our study is slightly stronger than the stochastic gradient oracle as it returns the sampled function instead of the stochastic gradient. 2 2 2 More Related Work Deterministic Smooth Optimization The convergence rate of gradient based methods usually depends on the analytical properties of the objective function to be optimized. When the objective function is strongly convex and smooth, it is well known that a simple GD method can achieve a linear convergence rate [5]. For a ? non-smooth Lipschitz-continuous function, the optimal rate for ? the first order method is only O(1/ T ) [16]. Although O(1/ T ) rate is not improvable in general, several recent studies are able to improve this rate to O(1/T ) by exploiting the special structure of the objective function [18, 17]. In the full gradient based convex optimization, smoothness is a highly desirable property. It has been shown that a simple GD achieves a convergence rate of O(1/T ) when the objective function is smooth, which is further can be improved to O(1/T 2 ) by using the accelerated gradient methods [15, 18, 16]. Stochastic Smooth Optimization Unlike the optimization methods based on full gradients, the smoothness assumption was ? not exploited by most stochastic optimization methods. In fact, it was shown in [14] that the O(1/ T ) convergence rate for stochastic optimization cannot be improved even when the objective function is smooth. This classical result is further confirmed by the recent studies of composite bounds for the first order optimization methods [2, 12]. The smoothness of the objective function is exploited extensively in mini-batch stochastic optimization [7, 8], where the goal is not to improve the convergence rate but to reduce the variance in stochastic gradients and consequentially the number of times for updating the solutions [24]. We finally note that the smoothness assumption coupled with the strong convexity of function is beneficial in stochastic setting and yields a geometric convergence in expectation using Stochastic Average Gradient (SAG) and Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (SDCA) algorithms proposed in [20] and [22], respectively. 3 Preliminaries We use bold-face letters to denote vectors. For any two vectors w, w? ? W, we denote by ?w, w? ? the inner product between w and w? . Throughout this paper, we only consider the ?2 -norm. We assume the objective function G(w) defined in (1) to be the average of n convex loss functions. The same assumption was made in [20, 22]. We assume that G(w) is minimized at some w? ? W. Without loss of generality, we assume that W ? BR , a ball of radius R. Besides convexity of individual functions, we will also assume that each gi (w) is ?-smooth as formally defined below [16]. Definition 1 (Smoothness). A differentiable loss function f (w) is said to be ?-smooth with respect to a norm ? ? ?, if it holds that ? f (w) ? f (w? ) + ??f (w? ), w ? w? ? + ?w ? w? ?2 , ? w, w? ? W, 2 The smoothness assumption also implies that ??f (w) ? ?f (w? ), w ? w? ? ? ??w ? w? ?2 which is equivalent to ?f (w) being ?-Lipschitz continuous. In stochastic first-order optimization setting, instead of having direct access to G(w), we only have access to a stochastic gradient oracle, which given a solution w ? W, returns the gradient ?gi (w) where i is sampled uniformly at random from {1, 2, ? ? ? , n}. The goal of stochastic optimization ? ? W such that the optimization to use a bounded number T of oracle calls, and compute some w ? ? G(w? ), is as small as possible. error, G(w) In the mixed optimization model considered in this study, we first relax the stochastic oracle Os by assuming that it will return a randomly sampled loss function gi (w), instead of the gradient ?gi (w) for a given solution w 3 . Second, we assume that the learner also has an access to the full gradient oracle Of . Our goal is to significantly improve the convergence rate of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) by making a small number of calls to the full gradient oracle Of . In particular, we show that by having only O(log T ) accesses to the full gradient oracle and O(T ) accesses to the stochastic oracle, we can tolerate the noise in stochastic gradients and attain an O(1/T ) convergence rate for optimizing smooth functions. 3 The audience may feel that this relaxation of stochastic oracle could provide significantly more information, and second order methods such as Online Newton [10] may be applied to achieve O(1/T ) convergence. We note (i) the proposed algorithm is a first order method, and (ii) although the Online ?Newton method yields a regret bound of O(1/T ), its convergence rate for optimization can be as low as O(1/ T ) due to the concentration bound for Martingales. In addition, the Online Newton method is only applicable to exponential concave function, not any smooth loss function. 3 Algorithm 1 M IXED G RAD Input: step size ?1 , domain size ?1 , the number of iterations T1 for the first epoch, the number of epoches m, regularization parameter ?1 , and shrinking parameter ? > 1 ?1 = 0 1: Initialize w 2: for k = 1, . . . , m do 3: Construct the domain Wk = {w : w + wk ? W, ?w? ? ?k } ? k) 4: Call the full gradient oracle Of for ?G(w ? ? k + ?G(w ? k ) = ?k w ? k + n1 ni=1 ?gi (w ? k) 5: Compute gk = ?k w 6: Initialize wk1 = 0 7: for t = 1, . . . , Tk do 8: Call stochastic oracle Os to return a randomly selected loss function gitk (w) ?kt = gk + ?gitk (wkt + w ? k ) ? ?gitk (w ? k) 9: Compute the stochastic gradient as g 10: Update the solution by 1 ?kt + ?k wkt ? + ?w ? wkt ?2 wkt+1 = arg max ?k ?w ? wkt , g 2 w?Wk 11: end for ? k +1 ? k+1 = w ?k + w e k+1 e k+1 = Tk1+1 Tt=1 12: Set w wkt and w 13: Set ?k+1 = ?k /?, ?k+1 = ?k /?, ?k+1 = ?k /?, and Tk+1 = ? 2 Tk 14: end for ? m+1 Return w The analysis of the proposed algorithm relies on the strong convexity of intermediate loss functions introduced to facilitate the optimization as given below. Definition 2 (Strong convexity). A function f (w) is said to be ?-strongly convex w.r.t a norm ? ? ?, if there exists a constant ? > 0 (often called the modulus of strong convexity) such that it holds ? f (w) ? f (w? ) + ??f (w? ), w ? w? ? + ?w ? w? ?2 , ? w, w? ? W 2 4 Mixed Stochastic/Deterministic Gradient Descent We now turn to describe the proposed mixed optimization algorithm and state its convergence rate. The detailed steps of M IXED G RAD algorithm are shown in Algorithm 1. It follows the epoch gradient descent algorithm proposed in [11] for stochastically minimizing strongly convex functions and divides the optimization process into m epochs, but involves novel ingredients so as to obtain an O(1/T ) convergence rate. The key idea is to introduce a ?2 regularizer into the objective function to make it strongly convex, and gradually reduce the amount of regularization over the epochs. We also shrink the domain as the algorithm proceeds. We note that reducing the amount of regularization over time is closely-related to the classic proximal-point algorithms. Throughout the paper, we will use the subscript for the index of each epoch, and the superscript for the index of iterations within each epoch. Below, we describe the key idea behind M IXED G RAD. ? k be the solution obtained before the kth epoch, which is initialized to be 0 for the first epoch. Let w ? k , resulting in the following Instead of searching for w? at the kth epoch, our goal is to find w? ? w optimization problem for the kth epoch n 1? ?k ? k ?2 + ? k ), ?w + w (2) gi (w + w min 2 n i=1 w + wk ? W ?w? ? ?k where ?k specifies the domain size of w and ?k is the regularization parameter introduced at the kth epoch. By introducing the ?2 regularizer, the objective function in (2) becomes strongly convex, making it possible to exploit the technique for stochastic optimization of strongly convex function in order to improve the convergence rate. The domain size ?k and the regularization parameter ?k are initialized to be ?1 > 0 and ?1 > 0, respectively, and are reduced by a constant factor ? > 1 ? k ?2 /2 every epoch, i.e., ?k = ?1 /? k?1 and ?k = ?1 /? k?1 . By removing the constant term ?k ?w from the objective function in (2), we obtain the following optimization problem for the kth epoch [ ] n 1? ?k 2 ? k? + ? k) , ?w? + ?k ?w, w gi (w + w (3) min Fk (w) = w?Wk 2 n i=1 4 where Wk = {w : w + wk ? W, ?w? ? ?k }. We rewrite the objective function Fk (w) as n ?k 1? ? k? + ? k) Fk (w) = ?w?2 + ?k ?w, w gi (w + w 2 n i=1 ? ? n n ?k 1? 1? 2 ?k + ? k) + ? k ) ? ?w, ?gi (w ? k )? = ?w? + w, ?k w ?gi (w gi (w + w 2 n i=1 n i=1 ?k 1? k ?w?2 + ?w, gk ? + gb (w) 2 n i=1 i n = where (4) 1? ? k ) and gbik (w) = gi (w + w ? k ) ? ?w, ?gi (w ? k )?. ?gi (w n i=1 n ?k + gk = ?k w The main reason for using gbik (w) instead of gi (w) is to tolerate the variance in the stochastic gradients. To see this, from the smoothness assumption of gi (w) we obtain the following inequality for the norm of gbik (w) as: k ?b ? k ) ? ?gi (w ? k )? ? ??w?. gi (w) = ??gi (w + w As a result, since ?w? ? ?k and ?k shrinks over epochs, then ?w? will approach to zero over epochs and consequentially ??b gik (w)? approaches to zero, which allows us to effectively control the variance in stochastic gradients, a key to improving the convergence of stochastic optimization for smooth functions to O(1/T ). Using Fk (w) in (4), at the tth iteration of the kth epoch, we call the stochastic oracle Os to randomly select a loss function gikt (w) and update the solution by following the standard paradigm of SGD by wkt+1 = = ) ( gikt (wkt )) ?w?Wk wkt ? ?k (?k wkt + gk + ?b k ( ) t t ? k ) ? ?gitk (w ? k )) , ?w?Wk wk ? ?k (?k wk + gk + ?gitk (wkt + w (5) where ?w?Wk (w) projects the solution w into the domain Wk that shrinks over epochs. e k , and update the solution from w ? k to At the end of each epoch, we compute the average solution w ? k+1 = w ?k +w e k . Similar to the epoch gradient descent algorithm [11], we increase the number of w iterations by a constant ? 2 for every epoch, i.e. Tk = T1 ? 2(k?1) . In order to perform stochastic gradient updating given in (5), we need to compute vector gk at the beginning of the kth epoch, which requires an access to the full gradient oracle Of . It is easy to count that the number of accesses to the full gradient oracle Of is m, and the number of accesses to the stochastic oracle Os is m ? ? 2m ? 1 T1 . T = T1 ? 2(i?1) = 2 ? ?1 i=1 Thus, if the total number of accesses to the stochastic gradient oracle is T , the number of access to the full gradient oracle required by Algorithm 1 is O(ln T ), consistent with our goal of making a small number of calls to the full gradient oracle. The theorem below shows that for smooth objective functions, by having O(ln T ) access to the full gradient oracle Of and O(T ) access to the stochastic oracle Os , by running M IXED G RAD algorithm, we achieve an optimization error of O(1/T ). Theorem 1. Let ? ? e?9/2 be the failure probability. Set ? = 2, ?1 = 16? and 1 m ? T1 = 300 ln , ?1 = , and ?1 = R. ? 2? 3T1 ( 2m ) ? m+1 be the solution returned by Algorithm 1 after m epochs Define T = T1 2 ? 1 /3. Let w with m = O(ln T ) calls to the full gradient oracle Of and T calls to the stochastic oracle Os . Then, with a probability 1 ? 2?, we have ( ) ? 80?R2 ? m+1 ) ? min G(w) ? 2m?2 = O . G(w w?W 2 T 5 5 Convergence Analysis Now we turn to proving the main theorem. The proof will be given in a series of lemmas and theorems where the proof of few are given in the Appendix. The proof of main theorem is based b ?k be the optimal solution that minimizes Fk (w) defined in (3). on induction. To this end, let w b ?k ? ? ?k , with a high probability, it holds that The key to our analysis is show that when ?w b ?k+1 ? ? ?k /?, where w b ?k+1 is the optimal solution that minimizes Fk+1 (w), as revealed by the ?w following theorem. b ?k and w b ?k+1 be the optimal solutions that minimize Fk (w) and Fk+1 (w), reTheorem 2. Let w e k+1 be the average solution obtained at the end of (kth?epoch) of M IXED G RAD spectively, and w b ?k ? ? ?k . By setting the step size ?k = 1/ 2? 3Tk , we have, with a algorithm. Suppose ?w probability 1 ? 2?, ?k ?k ?2k b ?k+1 ? ? e k+1 ) ? min Fk (w) ? ?w and Fk (w w ? 2? 4 ?9/2 provided that ? ? e and 300? 8 ? 2 1 Tk ? ln . ?2k ? Taking this statement as given for the moment, we proceed with the proof of Theorem 1, returning later to establish the claim stated in Theorem 2. Proof of Theorem 1. It is easy to check that for the first epoch, using the fact W ? BR , we have ?w?1 ? = ?w? ? ? R := ?1 . m b ?m+1 be the optimal solution obLet w? be the optimal solution that minimizes Fm (w) and let w tained in the last epoch. Using Theorem 2, with a probability 1 ? 2m?, we have ?1 ?m ?2m ?1 ?21 b ?m ? ? m?1 , Fm (w e m+1 ) ? Fm (w b ?m ) ? ?w = 3m+1 4 ? 2? 2? Hence by expanding the left hand side and utilizing the smoothness of individual loss functions we get n 1? ?1 ?21 ?1 ? m+1 ) ? Fm (w b ?m ) + 3m+1 e m+1 , w ? m? gi (w ? m?1 ?w n i=1 2? ? ? m ??1 ?1 ?21 ?1 ?w + 3m+1 2m?2 2? ? b ?m+1 ? ? ?m = ?1 ? 1?m . Since where the last step uses the fact ?w m m ? ? ??1 ? m? ? e i| ? ?w |w ?i ? ? 2?1 ??1 i=1 i=1 b ?m ) + ? Fm (w where in the last step holds under the condition ? ? 2. By combining above inequalities, we obtain n ?1 ?21 1? 2?1 ?2 ? m+1 ) ? Fm (w b ?m ) + 3m+1 gi (w + 2m?21 . n i=1 2? ? b ?m minimizes Fm (w), for any w? ? Our final goal is to relate Fm (w) to minw G(w). Since w arg min G(w), we have n ) 1? ?1 ( ? m ?2 + 2?w? ? w ? m, w ? m? . Fm (w?m ) ? Fm (w? ) = (6) gi (w? ) + m?1 ?w? ? w n i=1 2? ? m ?. To this end, after the first m Thus, the key to bound |F(w?m ) ? G(w? )| is to bound ?w? ? w ? m+1 , w ? m+2 , . . . be the sequence of solutions epoches, we run Algorithm 1 with full gradients. Let w generated by Algorithm 1 after the first m epochs. For this sequence of solutions, Theorem 2 e k ? ? ?k for any will hold deterministically as we deploy the full gradient for updating, i.e., ?w k ? m + 1. Since we reduce ?k exponentially, ?k will approach to zero and therefore the sequence ? k }? {w k=m+1 will converge to w? , one of the optimal solutions that minimize G(w). Since w? is the ? k }? ? k ? ? ?k for any k ? m + 1, we have limit of sequence {w k=m+1 and ?w ? ? ? ? 2?1 ?1 ? m? ? e i| ? ? m ?w? ? w |w ?k ? m ?1 ) ? (1 ? ? ? i=m+1 k=m+1 6 where the last step follows from the condition ? ? 2. Thus, ( 2 ) n 1? 4?1 8?21 ?1 m Fm (w? ) ? gi (w? ) + m?1 + m n i=1 2? ? 2m ? = n n ) 1? 2?1 ?2 ( 1? 5?1 ?2 gi (w? ) + 2m?11 2 + ? ?m ? gi (w? ) + 2m?11 n i=1 ? n i=1 ? (7) By combining the bounds in (6) and (7), we have, with a probability 1 ? 2m?, n n 1? 1? 5?1 ?2 ? m+1 ) ? gi (w gi (w? ) ? 2m?21 = O(1/T ) n i=1 n i=1 ? where T = T1 m?1 ? k=0 ? 2k ( ) T1 ? 2m ? 1 T1 2m ? ? . = 2 ? ?1 3 We complete the proof by plugging in the stated values for ?, ?1 and ?1 . 5.1 Proof of Theorem 2 For the convenience of discussion, we drop the subscript k for epoch just to simplify our notation. ? =w ? k be the solution obtained before the start of Let ? = ?k , T = Tk , ? = ?k , g = gk . Let w ?? = w ? k+1 be the solution obtained after running through the kth epoch. We the epoch k, and let w denote by F(w) and F ? (w) the objective functions Fk (w) and Fk+1 (w). They are given by n 1? ? ? + ? ?w?2 + ??w, w? gi (w + w) (8) F(w) = 2 n i=1 ? ? 1? ? ?) ? ?? + gi (w + w ?w?2 + ?w, w 2? ? n i=1 n F ? (w) = (9) b? = w b ?k and w b ?? = w b ?k+1 be the optimal solutions that minimize F(w) and F ? (w) over the Let w b ? ? ? ?, our goal is to show domain Wk and Wk+1 , respectively. Under the assumption that ?w ? ??2 b ?? ? ? , F(w ? ? ) ? F (w b ?) ? ?w ? 2? 4 b ? ) where the proof is deferred to Appendix. The following lemma bounds F(wt ) ? F (w Lemma 1. b ? ?2 b ? ?2 ?wt ? w ?wt+1 ? w ? 2 b ?) ? F(wt ) ? F (w ? + ??b git (wt ) + ?wt ? + ?g, wt ? wt+1 ? 2? 2? 2 ? ? ? ? b w b w b t ), wt ? w b ? ) ? ?b b ? ), wt ? w b ? + ??b b ? ) ? ?F( b ? ) + ?F(w b? + ?F( git (w git (wt ) + ?b git (w ? 1 = 0, we have By adding the inequality in Lemma 1 over all iterations, using the fact w T ? b ? ?2 b ? ?2 ?w ?wT +1 ? w b ?) ? F(wt ) ? F(w ? ? ?g, wT +1 ? 2? 2? t=1 + T T ? ?? b w b ? ) ? ?b b ? ), wt ? w b ?? ??b git (wt ) + ?wt ?2 + ??F( git (w 2 t=1 t=1 {z } | {z } | :=AT + T ? ? :=BT ? b w b t ), wt ? w b ? ) ? ?F( b ? ) + ?F(w b? . ??b git (wt ) + ?b git (w t=1 | {z } :=CT Since g = ?F(0) and F(wT +1 ) ? F (0) ? ??F(0), wT +1 ? + ? ? ?wT +1 ?2 = ?g, wT +1 ? + ?wT +1 ?2 2 2 7 using the fact F(0) ? F(w? ) + ?2 ?w? ?2 and max(?w? ?, ?wT +1 ?) ? ?, we have ? b ? )) ??g, wT +1 ? ? F(0) ? F (wT +1 ) + ?2 ? ??2 ? (F(wT +1 ) ? F(w 2 and therefore ( ) T +1 ? 1 ? 2 b ?) ? ? F(wt ) ? F (w + ? + AT + BT + CT . 2? 2 t=1 (10) The following lemmas bound AT , BT and CT . Lemma 2. For AT defined above we have AT ? 6? 2 ?2 T . The following lemma upper bounds BT and CT . The proof is based on the Bernstein?s inequality for Martingales [4] and is given in the Appendix. Lemma 3. With a probability 1 ? 2?, we have ) ) ( ( ? ? 1 1 1 1 BT ? ??2 ln + 2T ln and CT ? 2??2 ln + 2T ln . ? ? ? ? Using Lemmas 2 and 3, by substituting the uppers bounds for AT , BT , and CT in (10), with a probability 1 ? 2?, we obtain ( ) ? T +1 ? 1 1 1 2 2 b ?) ? ? F(wt ) ? F(w + ? + 6? ?T + 3? ln + 3? 2T ln 2? ? ? t=1 ? By choosing ? = 1/[2? 3T ], we have ) ( ? T +1 ? ? 1 1 2 b ? ) ? ? 2? 3T + ? + 3? ln + 3? 2T ln F(wt ) ? F(w ? ? t=1 ?T +1 e = i=1 wt /(T + 1), we have and using the fact w ? ? 3 ln[1/?] 3 ln[1/?] 2 5? 2 2 2 5? b ? ? e ? F (w b ?) ? ? e ?w b ?? ? ? F(w) , and ? = ?w . T +1 ? T +1 Thus, when T ? [300? 8 ? 2 ln 1? ]/?2 , we have, with a probability 1 ? 2?, 2 ? b 2 ? ? , and |F(w) e ? F (w b ? )| ? 4 ?2 . ? (11) 4 ? 2? e ?w b ? ?. b ?? ? to ?w The next lemma relates ?w ? b ? ? ? ??w e ?w b ? ?. Lemma 4. We have ?w b ?? ? ? ?/?. Combining the bound in (11) with Lemma 4, we have ?w 6 Conclusions and Open Questions We presented a new paradigm of optimization, termed as mixed optimization, that aims to improve the convergence rate of stochastic optimization by making a small number of calls to the full gradient oracle. We proposed the M IXED G RAD algorithm and showed that it is able to achieve an O(1/T ) convergence rate by accessing stochastic and full gradient oracles for O(T ) and O(log T ) times, respectively. We showed that the M IXED G RAD algorithm is able to exploit the smoothness of the function, which is believed to be not very useful in stochastic optimization. In the future, we would like to examine the optimality of our algorithm, namely if it is possible to achieve a better convergence rate for stochastic optimization of smooth functions using O(ln T ) accesses to the full gradient oracle. Furthermore, to alleviate the computational cost caused by O(log T ) accesses to the full gradient oracle, it would be interesting to empirically evaluate the proposed algorithm in a distributed framework by distributing the individual functions among processors to parallelize the full gradient computation at the beginning of each epoch which requires O(log T ) communications between the processors in total. 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Stochastic Convex Optimization with Multiple Objectives Mehrdad Mahdavi Michigan State University Tianbao Yang NEC Labs America, Inc Rong Jin Michigan State University [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we are interested in the development of efficient algorithms for convex optimization problems in the simultaneous presence of multiple objectives and stochasticity in the first-order information. We cast the stochastic multiple objective optimization problem into a constrained optimization problem by choosing one function as the objective and try to bound other objectives by appropriate thresholds. We first examine a two stages exploration-exploitation based algorithm which first approximates the stochastic objectives by sampling and then solves a constrained stochastic optimization problem by projected gradient method. This method attains a suboptimal convergence rate even under strong assumption on the objectives. Our second approach is an efficient primal-dual stochastic algorithm. It leverages on the theory of Lagrangian method ? in constrained optimization and attains the optimal convergence rate of O(1/ T ) in high probability for general Lipschitz continuous objectives. 1 Introduction Although both stochastic optimization [17, 4, 18, 10, 26, 20, 22] and multiple objective optimization [9] are well studied subjects in Operational Research and Machine Learning [11, 12, 24], much less is developed for stochastic multiple objective optimization, which is the focus of this work. Unlike multiple objective optimization where we have access to the complete objective functions, in stochastic multiple objective optimization, only stochastic samples of objective functions are available for optimization. Compared to the standard setup of stochastic optimization, the fundamental challenge of stochastic multiple objective optimization is how to make appropriate tradeoff between different objectives given that we only have access to stochastic oracles for different objectives. In particular, an algorithm for this setting has to ponder conflicting objective functions and accommodate the uncertainty in the objectives. A simple approach toward stochastic multiple objective optimization is to linearly combine multiple objectives with a fixed weight assigned to each objective. It converts stochastic multiple objective optimization into a standard stochastic optimization problem, and is guaranteed to produce Pareto efficient solutions. The main difficulty with this approach is how to decide an appropriate weight for each objective, which is particularly challenging when the complete objective functions are unavailable. In this work, we consider an alternative formulation that casts multiple objective optimization into a constrained optimization problem. More specifically, we choose one of the objectives as the target to be optimized, and use the rest of the objectives as constraints in order to ensure that each of these objectives is below a specified level. Our assumption is that although full objective functions are unknown, their desirable levels can be provied due to the prior knowledge of the domain. Below, we provide a few examples that demonstrate the application of stochastic multiple objective optimization in the form of stochastic constrained optimization. Robust Investment. Let r ? Rn denote random returns of the n risky assets, and w ? W ? ?n n {w ? R+ : i wi = 1} denote the distribution of an investor?s wealth over all assets. The return for an investment distribution is defined as ?w, r?. The investor needs to consider conflicting objectives such as rate of return, liquidity and risk in maximizing his wealth [2]. Suppose that r has a unknown probability distribution with mean vector ? and covariance matrix ?. Then the target 1 of the investor is to choose an optimal portfolio w that lies on the mean-risk efficient frontier. In mean-variance theory [15], which trades off between the expected return (mean) and risk (variance) of a portfolio, one is interested in minimizing the variance subject to budget constraints which leads to a formulation like: [? ?] w, E[rr? ]w subject to E[?r, w?] ? ?. min ?n n w?R+ , i wi =1 Neyman-Pearson Classification. In the Neyman-Pearson (NP) classification paradigm (see e.g, [19]), the goal is to learn a classifier from labeled training data such that the probability of a false negative is minimized while the probability of a false positive is below a user-specified level ? ? (0, 1). Let hypothesis class be a parametrized convex set W = {w 7? ?w, x? : w ? Rd , ?w? ? R} and for all (x, y) ? ? ? Rd ? {?1, +1} the loss function ? : W ? ? 7? R+ be a non-negative convex function. While the goal of classical binary classification problem is to minimize the risk as minw?W [L(w) = E [?(w; (x, y))]], the Neyman-Pearson targets on min L+ (w) subject to L? (w) ? ?, w?W where L+ (w) = E[?(w; (x, y))|y = +1] and L? (w) = E[?(w; (x, y))|y = ?1]. Linear Optimization with Stochastic Constraints. In many applications in economics, most notably in welfare and utility theory, and management parameters are known only stochastically and it is unreasonable to assume that the objective functions and the solution domain are deterministically fixed. These situations involve the challenging task of pondering both conflicting goals and random data concerning the uncertain parameters of the problem. Mathematically, the goal in multi-objective linear programming with stochastic information is to solve: min [?c1 (?), w? , ? ? ? , ?cK (?), w?] subject to w ? W = {w ? Rd+ : A(?)w ? b(?)}, w where ? is the randomness in the parameters, ci , i ? [K] are the objective functions, and A and b formulate the stochastic constraints on the solution where randomness is captured by ?. In this paper, we first examine two methods that try to eliminate the multi-objective aspect or the stochastic nature of stochastic multiple objective optimization and reduce the problem to a standard convex optimization problem. We show that both methods fail to tackle the problem of stochastic multiple objective optimization in general and require strong assumptions on the stochastic objectives, which limits their applications to real world problems. Having discussed these negative results, we propose an algorithm that can solve the problem optimally and efficiently. We achieve ? this by an efficient primal-dual stochastic gradient descent method that is able to attain an O(1/ T ) convergence rate for all the objectives under the standard assumption of the Lipschitz continuity of objectives which is known to be optimal (see for instance [3]). We note that there is a flurry of research on heuristics-based methods to address the multi-objective stochastic optimization problem (see e.g., [8] and [1] for a recent survey on existing methods). However, in contrast to this study, most of these approaches do not have theoretical guarantees. Finally, we would like to distinguish our work from robust optimization [5] and online learning with long term constraint [13]. Robust optimization was designed to deal with uncertainty within the optimization systems. Although it provides a principled framework for dealing with stochastic constraints, it often ends up with non-convex optimization problems that are not computationally tractable. Online learning with long term constraint generalizes online learning. Instead of requiring the constraints to be satisfied by every solution generated by online learning, it allows the constraints to be satisfied by the entire sequence of solutions. However, unlike stochastic multiple objective optimization, in online learning with long term constraints, constraint functions are fixed and known before the start of online learning. Outline. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we establish the necessary notation and introduce the problem under consideration. Section 3 introduces the problem reduction methods and elaborates their disadvantages. Section 4 presents our efficient primal-dual stochastic optimization algorithm. Finally, we conclude the paper with open questions in Section 5. 2 Preliminaries Notation Throughout this paper, we use the following notation. We use bold-face letters to denote vectors. We denote the inner product between two vectors w, w? ? W by ?w, w? ? where W ? Rd is a compact closed domain. For m ? N, we denote by [m] the set {1, 2, ? ? ? {, m}. We only consider } the ?2 norm throughout the paper. The ball with radius R is denoted by B = w ? Rd : ?w? ? R . Statement of the Problem In this work, we generalize online stochastic convex optimization to the case of multiple objectives. In particular, at each iteration, the learner is asked to present a 2 solution wt , which will be evaluated by multiple loss functions ft0 (w), ft1 (w), . . . , ftm (w). A fundamental difference between single- and multi-objective optimization is that for the latter it is not obvious how to evaluate the optimization quality. Since it is impossible to simultaneously minimize multiple loss functions and in order to avoid complications caused by handling more than one objective, we choose one function as the objective and try to bound other objectives by appropriate thresholds. Specifically, the goal of OCO with multiple objectives becomes to minimize ?T 0 t=1 ft (wt ) and at the same time keep the other objective functions below a given threshold, i.e. T 1? i f (wt ) ? ?i , i ? [m], T t=1 t where w1 , . . . , wT are the solutions generated by the online learner and ?i specifies the level of loss that is acceptable to the ith objective function. Since the general setup (i.e., full adversarial setup) is challenging for online convex optimization even with two objectives [14], in this work, we consider a simple scenario where all the loss functions fti (w), i ? [m] are i.i.d samples from an unknown distribution [21]. We also note that our goal is NOT to find a Pareto efficient solution (a solution is Pareto efficient if it is not dominated by any solution in the decision space). Instead, we aim to find a solution that (i) optimizes one selected objective, and (ii) satisfies all the other objectives with respect to the specified thresholds. We denote by f?i (w) = Et [fti (w)], i = 0, 1, . . . , m the expected loss function of sampled function fti (w). In stochastic multiple objective optimization, we assume that we do not have direct access to the expected loss functions and the only information available to the solver is through a stochastic oracle that returns a stochastic realization of the expected loss function at each call. We assume that there exists a solution w strictly satisfying all the constraints, i.e. f?i (w) < ?i , i ? [m]. We denote by w? the optimal solution to multiple{objective optimization, i.e., } (1) w? = arg min f?0 (w) : f?i (w) ? ?i , i ? [m] . b T after T trials that (i) obeys all the constraints, i.e. Our goal is to efficiently compute a solution w b T ) ? ?i , i ? [m] and (ii) minimizes the objective f?0 with respect to the optimal solution w? , f?i (w b T ) ? f?0 (w? ). For the convenience of discussion, we refer to ft0 (w) and f?0 (w) as the i.e. f?0 (w objective function, and to fti (w) and f?i (w) for all i ? [m] as the constraint functions. Before discussing the algorithms, we first mention a few assumptions made in our analysis. We assume that the optimal solution w? belongs to B. We also make the standard assumption that all the loss functions, including both the objective function and constraint functions, are Lipschitz continuous, i.e., |fti (w) ? fti (w? )| ? L?w ? w? ? for any w, w? ? B. 3 Problem Reduction and its Limitations Here we examine two algorithms to cope with the complexity of stochastic optimization with multiple objectives and discuss some negative results which motivate the primal-dual algorithm presented in Section 4. The first method transforms a stochastic multi-objective problem into a stochastic single-objective optimization problem and then solves the latter problem by any stochastic programming approach. Alternatively, one can eliminate the randomness of the problem by estimating the stochastic objectives and transform the problem into a deterministic multi-objective problem. 3.1 Linear Scalarization with Stochastic Optimization A simple approach to solve stochastic optimization problem with multiple objectives is to eliminate the aspect of the problem by aggregating the m + 1 objectives into a single objective ?mmulti-objective i i=0 ?i ft (wt ), where ?i , i ? {0, 1, ? ? ? , m} is the weight of ith objective, and then solving the resulting single objective stochastic problem by stochastic optimization methods. This approach is in general known as the weighted-sum or scalarization method [1]. Although this naive idea considerably facilitates the computational challenge of the problem, unfortunately, it is difficult to decide the weight for each objective, such that the specified levels for different objectives are obeyed. Beyond the hardness of optimally determining the weight of individual functions, it is also unclear how to bound the sub-optimality of final solution for individual objective functions. 3.2 Projected Gradient Descent with Estimated Objective Functions The main challenge of the proposed problem is that the expected constraint functions f?i (w) are not given. Instead, only a sampled function is provided at each trial t. Our naive approach is to replace the expected constraint function f?i (w) with its empirical estimation based on sampled objective functions. This approach circumvents the problem of stochastically optimizing multiple objective 3 into the original online convex optimization with complex projections, and therefore can be solved by projected gradient descent. More specifically, at trial t, given the current solution wt and received loss functions fti (w), i = 0, 1, . . . , m, we first estimate the constraint functions as t 1? i fbti (w) = fk (w), i ? [m], t k=1 ( } and then update the solution by wt+1 = ?Wt wt ? ??ft0 (wt ) where ? > 0 is the step size, ?W (w) = minz?W ?z ? w? projects a solution w into domain W, and Wt is an approximate domain given by Wt = {w : fbti (w) ? ?i , i ? [m]}. One problem with the above approach is that although it is feasible to satisfy all the constraints based on the true expected constraint functions, there is no guarantee that the approximate domain Wt is not empty. One way to address this issue is to estimate the expected constraint functions by burning the first bT trials, where b ? (0, 1) is a constant that needs to be adjusted to obtain the optimal performance, and keep the estimated constraint functions unchanged afterwards. Given the sampled i received in the first bT trials, we compute the approximate domain W ? as functions f1i , . . . , fbT bT { } 1 ? i fbi (w) = ft (w), i ? [m], W ? = w : fbi (w) ? ?i + ??i , i = 1, . . . , m bT t=1 where ??i > 0 is a relaxed constant introduced to ensure that with a high probability, the approximate domain Wt is not empty provided that the original domain W is not empty. To ensure the correctness of the above approach, we need to establish some kind of uniform (strong) convergence assumption to make sure that the solutions obtained by projection onto the estimated domain W ? will be close to the true domain W with high probability. It turns out that the following assumption ensures the desired property. Assumption 1 (Uniform Convergence). Let fbi (w), i = 0, 1, ? ? ? , m be the estimated functions obtained by averaging over bT i.i.d samples for f?i (w), i ? [m]. We assume that, with a high probability, sup fbi (w) ? f?i (w) ? O([bT ]?q ), i = 0, 1, ? ? ? , m. w?W where q > 0 decides the convergence rate. It is straightforward to show that under Assumption 1, with a high probability, for any w ? W, we have w ? W ? , with appropriately chosen relaxation constant ??i , i ? [m]. Using the estimated domain W ? , for trial t ? [bT + 1, T ], we update the solution by wt+1 = ?W ? (wt ? ??ft0 (wt )). There are however several drawbacks with this naive approach. Since the first bT trials are used for estimating the constraint functions, only the last (1?b)T trials are used for searching for the optimal solution. The total amount of violation of individual constraint functions for the last (1 ? b)T trials, ?T given by t=bT +1 f?i (wt ), is O((1 ? b)b?q T 1?q ), where each of the (1 ? b)T trials receives a violation of O([bT ]?q ). Similarly, following ? the conventional analysis of online learning [26], we ?T have t=bT +1 (ft0 (wt ) ? ft0 (w? )) ? O( (1 ? b)T ). Using the same trick as in [13], to obtain a solution with zero violation of constraints, we will have a regret bound O((1 ? b)b?q T 1?q + ? (1 ? b)T ), which yields a convergence rate of O(T ?1/2 + T ?q ) which could be worse than the optimal rate O(T ?1/2 ) when q < 1/2. Additionally, this approach requires memorizing the constraint functions of the first bT trials. This is in contrast to the typical assumption of online learning where only the solution is memorized. Remark 1. We finally remark on the uniform convergence assumption, which holds when the constraint functions are linear [25], but unfortunately does not hold for general convex Lipschitz functions. In particular, one can simply show examples where there is no uniform convergence for stochastic convex Lipchitz functions in infinite dimensional spaces [21]. Without uniform convergence assumption, the approximate domain W ? may depart from the true W significantly at some unknown point, which makes the above approach to fail for general convex objectives. To address these limitations and in particular the dependence on uniform convergence assumption, we present an algorithm that does not require projection when updating the solution and does not require to impose any additional assumption on the stochastic functions except for the standard Lipschitz continuity assumption. We note that our result is closely related to the recent studies of learning from the viewpoint of optimization [23], which state that solutions found by stochastic gradient descent can be statistically consistent even when uniform convergence theorem does not hold. 4 Algorithm 1 Stochastic Primal-Dual Optimization with Multiple Objectives i 1: INPUT: step size ?, ?0 = (?10 , ? ? ? , ?m 0 ), ?0 > 0, i ? [m] and total iterations T 2: w1 = ?1 = 0 3: for t = 1, . . . , T do 4: Submit the solution wt 5: Receive loss functions fti , i = 0, 1, . . . , m 6: Compute the gradients ?fti (wt ), i = 0, 1, . . . , m 7: Update the solution w and ? by ]) ( [ m ? wt+1 = ?B (wt ? ??w Lt (wt , ?t )) = ?B wt ? ? ?ft0 (wt ) + ?it ?fti (wt ) , i=1 ( [ ]) ( ) ?it+1 = ?[0,?i0 ] ?it + ???i Lt (wt , ?t ) = ?[0,?i0 ] ?it + ? fti (wt ) ? ?i . 8: end for ? ? T = Tt=1 wt /T 9: Return w 4 An Efficient Stochastic Primal-Dual Algorithm We now turn to devise a tractable formulation of the problem, followed by an efficient primal-dual optimization algorithm and the statements of our main results. We show that with a high probability, the solution found by the ? proposed algorithm will exactly satisfy the expected constraints and achieves a regret bound of O( T ). The main idea of the proposed algorithm is to design an appropriate objective that combines the loss function f?0 (w) with f?i (w), i ? [m]. As mentioned before, owing to the presence of conflicting goals and the randomness nature of the objective functions, we resort to seek for a solution that satisfies all the objectives instead of an optimal one. To this end, we define the following objective function m ? 0 ? ? L(w, ?) = f (w) + ?i (f?i (w) ? ?i ). i=1 Note that the objective function consists of both the primal variable w ? W and dual variable ? = (?1 , . . . , ?m )? ? ?, where ? ? Rm + is a compact convex set that bounds the set of dual variables and will be discussed later. In the proposed algorithm, we will simultaneously update solutions for both w and ?. By exploring convex-concave optimization theory [16], we will show ? that with a high probability, the solution of regret O( T ) exactly obeyes the constraints. As the first step, we consider a simple scenario where the obtained solution is allowed to violate the constraints. The detailed steps of our primal-dual algorithm is presented in Algorithm 1 . It follows the same procedure as convex-concave optimization. Since at each iteration, we only observed a randomly sampled loss functions fti (w), i = 0, 1, . . . , m, the objective function given by m ? Lt (w, ?) = ft0 (w) + ?i (fti (w) ? ?i ) i=1 ? provides an unbiased estimate of L(w, ?). Given the approximate objective Lt (w, ?), the proposed algorithm tries to minimize the objective Lt (w, ?) with respect to the primal variable w and maximize the objective with respect to the dual variable ?. To facilitate the analysis, we first rewrite the the constrained optimization problem min f?0 (w) w?B?W { } where W is defined as W = w : f?i (w) ? ?i , i = 1, . . . m in the following equivalent form: m ? min maxm f?0 (w) + ?i (f?i (w) ? ?i ). (2) w?B ??R+ i=1 ? We denote by w? and ?? = (?1? , . . . , ?m ? ) as the optimal primal and dual solutions to the above convex-concave optimization problem, respectively, i.e., m ? w? = arg min f?0 (w) + ?i? (f?i (w) ? ?i ), (3) w?B ?? = i=1 m ? arg max f?0 (w? ) + ??Rm + i=1 5 ?i (f?i (w? ) ? ?i ). (4) The following assumption establishes upper bound on the gradients of L(w, ?) with respect to w and ?. We later show that this assumption holds under a mild condition on the objective functions. Assumption 2 (Gradient Boundedness). The gradients ?w L(w, ?) and ?? L(w, ?) are uniformly bounded, i.e., there exist a constant G > 0 such that max (?w L(w, ?), ?? L(w, ?)) ? G, for any w ? B and ? ? ?. Under the preceding assumption, in the following theorem, we show that under appropriate b T generated by of Algorithm 1 attains a convergence rate of conditions, the average solution w ? O(1/ T ) for both the regret and the violation of the constraints. b T be the solution obtained Theorem 1. Set ?i0 ? ?i? + ?, i ? [m], where ? > 0 is a constant. Let w by Algorithm 1 after T iterations. Then, with a probability 1 ? (2m + 1)?, we have ?(?) ?(?) b T ) ? f?0 (w? ) ? ? b T ) ? ?i ? ? , i ? [m] f?0 (w and f?i (w T ? T ? ?m i 2 2 2 2 where D = i=1 [?0 ] , ? = [ (R + D )/2T ]/G, and ? ? ? 1 2 2 ?(?) = 2G R + D + 2G(R + D) 2 ln . (5) ? Remark 2. The parameter ? ? R+ is a quantity that may be set to obtain sharper upper bound on the violation of constraints and may be chosen arbitrarily. In particular, a larger value for ? imposes larger penalty on the violation of the constraints and results in a smaller violation for the objectives. We also can develop an algorithm that allows the solution to exactly satisfy all the constraints. To ? . We will run Algorithm 1 but with ?i replaced by ? bi . Let G? this end, we define ? bi = ?i ? ??(?) T denote the upper bound in Assumption 2 for ?? L(w, ?) with ? bi is replaced by ?i , i ? [m]. The bT. following theorem shows the property of the obtained average solution w b T be the solution obtained by Algorithm 1 with ?i replaced by ? Theorem 2. Let w bi and ?i0 = ?i? + ?, i ? [m]. Then, with a probability 1 ? (2m + 1)?, we have ?m (1 + i=1 ?i0 )?? (?) 0 0 ? ? ? b T ) ? f (w? ) ? b T ) ? ?i , i ? [m], f (w and f?i (w T ? where ?? (?) is same as (5) with G is replaced by G? and ? = [ (R2 + D2 )/2T ]/G? . 4.1 Convergence Analysis Here we provide the proofs of main theorems stated above. We start by proving Theorem 1 and then extend it to prove Theorem 2. Proof. (of Theorem 1) Using the standard analysis of convex-concave optimization, from the con? ? ?) with respect to ?, for any w ? B and vexity of L(w, ?) with respect to w and concavity of L(?, i i ? ? [0, ?0 ], i ? [m], we have ? t , ?) ? L(w, ? L(w ?t ) ? ? ? ? ? t , ?t ) ? ?t ? ?, ?? L(w ? t , ?t ) ? wt ? w, ?w L(w = ?wt ? w, ?w Lt (wt , ?t )? ? ??t ? ?, ?? Lt (wt , ?t )? ? ? ? ? ? t , ?t ) ? ?w Lt (wt , ?t ) ? ?t ? ?, ?? L(w ? t , ?t ) ? ?? Lt (wt , ?t ) + wt ? w, ?w L(w ? ?wt ? w?2 ? ?wt+1 ? w?2 ??t ? ??2 ? ??t+1 ? ??2 + 2? 2? ) ?( + ??w Lt (wt , ?t )?2 + ??? Lt (wt , ?t )?2 2? ? ? ? ? t , ?t ) ? ?w Lt (wt , ?t ) ? ?t ? ?, ?? L(w ? t , ?t ) ? ?? Lt (wt , ?t ) , + wt ? w, ?w L(w where in the first inequality we have added and subtracted the stochastic gradients used for updating the solutions, the last inequality follows from the updating rules for wt+1 and ?t+1 and non-expensiveness property of the orthogonal projection operation onto the convex domain. 6 By adding all the inequalities together, we get T ? ? t , ?) ? L(w, ? L(w ?t ) t=1 ? + T ?? ?w ? w1 ?2 + ?? ? ?1 ?2 + ??w Lt (wt , ?t )?2 + ??? Lt (wt , ?t )?2 2? 2 t=1 T ? ? ? ? ? ? t , ?t ) ? ?? Lt (wt , ?t ) ? t , ?t ) ? ?w Lt (wt , ?t ) ? ?t ? ?, ?? L(w wt ? w, ?w L(w t=1 2 R + D2 + ?G2 T 2? T ? ? ? ? ? ? t , ?t ) ? ?w Lt (wt , ?t ) ? ?t ? ?, ?? L(w ? t , ?t ) ? ?? Lt (wt , ?t ) + wt ? w, ?w L(w ? t=1 ? R2 + D 2 1 2 ? + ?G T + 2G(R + D) 2T ln (w.p. 1 ? ?), 2? ? where the last inequality follows from the Hoeffiding inequality for Martingales [6]. By expanding the left hand side, substituting the stated value of ?, and applying the Jensen?s inequality for the ? b T = ?T ?t /T , for any fixed ?i ? [0, ?i ], i ? [m] b T = Tt=1 wt /T and ? average solutions w 0 t=1 and w ? B, with a probability 1 ? ?, we have m m ? ? bi (f?i (w) ? ?i ) bT) + b T ) ? ?i ) ? f?0 (w) ? f?0 (w ?i (f?i (w ? (6) T i=1 ? i=1 ? + 2 1 + 2G(R + D) ln . T T ? By fixing w = w? and ? = 0 in (6), we have f?i (w? ) ? ?i , i ? [m], and therefore, with a probability 1 ? ?, have ? ? ? R2 + D 2 2 1 0 0 ? ? b T ) ? f (w? ) + 2G f (w + 2G(R + D) ln . T T ? To bound the violation of constraints we set w = w? , ?i = ?i0 , i ? [m], and ?j = ?j? , j ?= i in (6). We have m ? ? bi (f?i (w? ) ? ?i ) b T ) ? ?j ) ? f?0 (w? ) ? b T ) ? ?i ) + b T ) + ?i0 (f?i (w ?j? (f?j (w ? f?0 (w T ? ? 2G b T ) + ?i0 (f?i (w b T ) ? ?i ) + ? f?0 (w R2 D2 j?=i i=1 ? m ? b T ) ? ?j ) ? f?0 (w? ) ? ?j? (f?j (w ?i? (f?i (w? ) ? ?i ) i=1 j?=i b T ) ? ?i ), ? ?(f?i (w where the first inequality utilizes (4) and the second inequality utilizes (3). We thus have, with a probability 1 ? ? ?, ? ? 2G R2 + D 2 2G(R + D) 2 1 i ? b T ) ? ?i ? f (w + ln , i ? [m]. ? T ? T ? We complete the proof by taking the union bound over all the random events. We now turn to the proof of Theorem 2 that gives high probability bound on the convergence of the modified algorithm which obeys all the constraints. Proof. (of Theorem 2) Following the proof of Theorem 1, with a probability 1 ? ?, we have m m ? ? bi (f?i (w) ? ? bT) + bT) ? ? f?0 (w ?i (f?i (w bi ) ? f?0 (w) ? ? bi ) T i=1 ? ? 2G? ? i=1 R2 + T 7 D2 ? ? + 2G (R + D) 1 2 ln T ? e ? be the saddle point for the following minimax optimization problem e ? and ? Define w m ? 0 ? min maxm f (w) + ?i (f?i (w) ? ? bi ) w?B ??R+ i=1 e ? , ?i = ?i0 , and Following the same analysis as Theorem 1, for each i ? [m], by setting w = w j j j e? , using the fact that ? e? ? ?? , we have, with a probability 1 ? ? ?j = ? ? ? ? ? R2 + D 2 2 1 ?(?) ? i ? b T ) ? ?i ) ? 2G + 2G (R + D) ln ? ? ? 0, ?(f (w T T ? T which completes the proof. 4.2 Implementation Issues In order to run Algorithm 1, we need to estimate the parameter ?i0 , i ? [m], which requires to decide the set ? by estimating an upper bound for the optimal dual variables ?i? , i ? [m]. To this end, we consider an alternative problem to the convex-concave optimization problem in (2), i.e. min max f?0 (w) + ? max (f?i (w) ? ?i ). w?B ??0 1?i?m (7) Evidently w? is the optimal primal solution to (7). Let ?a be the optimal dual solution to the problem in (7). We have the following proposition that links ?i? , i ? [m], the optimal dual solution to (2), with ?a , the optimal dual solution to (7). Proposition 1. Let? ?a be the optimal dual solution to (7) and ?i? , i ? [m] be the optimal solution to m (2). We have ?a = i=1 ?i? . ?m Proof. We can rewrite (7) as min max f?0 (w) + i=1 pi ?(f?i (w) ? ?i ), where domain ?m is w?B ??0,p??m ?m = 1}. By redefining ?i = pi ?, we have the problem in (7) defined as ?m = {? ? Rm + : i=1 ?i ? m equivalent to (2) and consequently ? = i=1 ?i as claimed. Given the result from Proposition 1, it is sufficient to bound ?a . In order to bound ?a , we need to make certain assumption about f?i (w), i ? [m]. The purpose of introducing this assumption is to ensure that the optimal dual variable is well bounded from the above. ?m Assumption 3. We assume min i=1 ?i ?f?i (w) ? ? , where ? > 0 is a constant. ???m Equipped with Assumption 3, we are able to bound ?a by ? . To this end, using the first order optimality condition of { (2) [7], we have ?a = ??f?0} (w? )?/??g(w)?, where g(w) = max1?i?m f?i (w). ?m L i ? Since ?g(w) ? i=1 ?i ?f (w) : ? ? ?m , under Assumption 3, we have ?a ? ? . By comL bining Proposition 1 with the upper bound on ?a , we obtain ?i? ? ? , i ? [m] as desired. Finally, we note that by having ?? bounded, Assumption 2 is guaranteed by setting G2 = ( )2 ?m ?m max(L2 1 + i=1 ?i0 , max i=1 (f?i (w) ? ?i )2 ) which follows from Lipschitz continuity of w?B the objective functions. In a similar way we can set G? in Theorem 2 by replacing ?i with ? bi . 5 Conclusions and Open Questions In this paper we have addressed the problem of stochastic convex optimization with multiple objectives underlying many applications in machine learning. We first examined a simple problem reduction technique that eliminates the stochastic aspect of constraint functions by approximating them using the sampled functions from each iteration. We showed that this simple idea fails to attain the optimal convergence rate and requires to impose a strong assumption, i.e., uniform convergence, on the objective functions. Then, we ?presented a novel efficient primal-dual algorithm which attains the optimal convergence rate O(1/ T ) for all the objectives relying only on the Lipschitz continuity of the objective functions. This work leaves few direction for further elaboration. In particular, it would be interesting to see whether or not making stronger assumptions on the analytical properties of objective functions such as smoothness or strong convexity may yield improved convergence rate. Acknowledgments. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful and insightful comments. The work of M. Mahdavi and R. Jin was supported in part by ONR Award N000141210431 and NSF (IIS-1251031). 8 References [1] F. B. Abdelaziz. Solution approaches for the multiobjective stochastic programming. European Journal of Operational Research, 216(1):1?16, 2012. [2] F. B. Abdelaziz, B. Aouni, and R. E. Fayedh. Multi-objective stochastic programming for portfolio selection. European Journal of Operational Research, 177(3):1811?1823, 2007. [3] A. Agarwal, P. L. Bartlett, P. D. Ravikumar, and M. J. Wainwright. Information-theoretic lower bounds on the oracle complexity of stochastic convex optimization. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 58(5):3235?3249, 2012. [4] F. Bach and E. Moulines. Non-asymptotic analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms for machine learning. In NIPS, pages 451?459, 2011. [5] A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, and A. Nemirovski. Robust optimization. Princeton University Press, 2009. [6] S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, and O. Bousquet. Concentration inequalities. In Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning, pages 208?240, 2003. [7] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [8] R. Caballero, E. Cerd?a, M. del Mar Mu?noz, and L. Rey. Stochastic approach versus multiobjective approach for obtaining efficient solutions in stochastic multiobjective programming problems. European Journal of Operational Research, 158(3):633?648, 2004. [9] M. Ehrgott. Multicriteria optimization. Springer, 2005. [10] E. Hazan and S. Kale. Beyond the regret minimization barrier: an optimal algorithm for stochastic strongly-convex optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research - Proceedings Track, 19:421?436, 2011. [11] K.-J. Hsiao, K. S. Xu, J. Calder, and A. O. H. III. Multi-criteria anomaly detection using pareto depth analysis. In NIPS, pages 854?862, 2012. [12] Y. Jin and B. Sendhoff. Pareto-based multiobjective machine learning: An overview and case studies. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C, 38(3):397?415, 2008. [13] M. Mahdavi, R. Jin, and T. Yang. Trading regret for efficiency: online convex optimization with long term constraints. JMLR, 13:2465?2490, 2012. [14] S. Mannor, J. N. Tsitsiklis, and J. Y. Yu. Online learning with sample path constraints. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:569?590, 2009. [15] H. Markowitz. Portfolio selection. The journal of finance, 7(1):77?91, 1952. [16] A. Nemirovski. Efficient methods in convex programming. Lecture Notes, Available at http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/ nemirovs, 1994. [17] A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, and A. Shapiro. Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming. SIAM J. on Optimization, 19:1574?1609, 2009. [18] A. Rakhlin, O. Shamir, and K. Sridharan. Making gradient descent optimal for strongly convex stochastic optimization. In ICML, 2012. [19] P. Rigollet and X. Tong. Neyman-pearson classification, convexity and stochastic constraints. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:2831?2855, 2011. [20] S. Shalev-Shwartz. Online learning and online convex optimization. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 4(2):107?194, 2012. [21] S. Shalev-Shwartz, O. Shamir, N. Srebro, and K. Sridharan. Stochastic convex optimization. In COLT, 2009. [22] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal estimated sub-gradient solver for svm. In ICML, pages 807?814, 2007. [23] K. Sridharan. Learning from an optimization viewpoint. PhD Thesis, 2012. [24] K. M. Svore, M. N. Volkovs, and C. J. Burges. Learning to rank with multiple objective functions. In WWW, pages 367?376. ACM, 2011. [25] H. Xu and F. Meng. Convergence analysis of sample average approximation methods for a class of stochastic mathematical programs with equality constraints. Mathematics of Operations Research, 32(3):648?668, 2007. [26] M. Zinkevich. Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent. In ICML, pages 928?936, 2003. 9
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Data-driven Distributionally Robust Polynomial Optimization Martin Mevissen IBM Research?Ireland [email protected] Emanuele Ragnoli IBM Research?Ireland [email protected] Jia Yuan Yu IBM Research?Ireland [email protected] Abstract We consider robust optimization for polynomial optimization problems where the uncertainty set is a set of candidate probability density functions. This set is a ball around a density function estimated from data samples, i.e., it is data-driven and random. Polynomial optimization problems are inherently hard due to nonconvex objectives and constraints. However, we show that by employing polynomial and histogram density estimates, we can introduce robustness with respect to distributional uncertainty sets without making the problem harder. We show that the optimum to the distributionally robust problem is the limit of a sequence of tractable semidefinite programming relaxations. We also give finite-sample consistency guarantees for the data-driven uncertainty sets. Finally, we apply our model and solution method in a water network optimization problem. 1 Introduction For many optimization problems, the objective and constraint functions are not adequately modeled by linear or convex functions (e.g., physical phenomena such as fluid or gas flow, energy conservation, etc.). Non-convex polynomial functions are needed to describe the model accurately. The resulting polynomial optimization problems are hard in general. Another salient feature of realworld problems is uncertainty in the parameters of the problem (e.g., due to measurement errors, fundamental principles, or incomplete information), and the need for optimal solutions to be robust against worst case realizations of the uncertainty. Robust optimization and polynomial optimization are already an important topic in machine learning and operations research. In this paper, we combine the polynomial and uncertain features and consider robust polynomial optimization. We introduce a new notion of data-driven distributional robustness: the uncertain problem parameter is a probability distribution from which samples can be observed. Consequently, it is natural to take as the uncertainty set a set of functions, such as a norm ball around an estimated probability distribution. This approach gives solutions that are less conservative than classical robust optimization with a set for the uncertain parameters. It is easy to see that the set uncertainty setting is an extreme case of a distributional uncertainty set comprised of a set of Dirac densities. This stands in sharp contrast with real-world problems where more information is at hand than the support of the distribution of the parameters affected by uncertainty. Uncertain parameters may follow normal, Poisson, or unknown nonparametric distributions. Such parameters arise in queueing theory, economics, etc. We employ methods from both machine learning and optimization. First, we take care to estimate the distribution of the uncertain parameter using polynomial basis functions. This ensures that the resulting robust optimization problem can be reduced to a polynomial optimization problem. In turn, we can then employ an iterative method of SDP relaxations to solve it. Using tools from machine learning, we give a finite-sample consistency guarantee on the estimated uncertainty set. Using tools from optimization, we give an asymptotic guarantee on the solutions of the SDP relaxations. 1 Section 2 presents the model of data-driven distributionally robust polynomial optimization?DRO for short. Section 3 situates our work in the context of the literature. Our contributions are the following. In Section 4, we consider the general case of uncertain multivariate distribution, which yields a generalized problem of moments for the distributionally robust counterpart. In Section 5, we introduce an efficient histogram approximation for the case of uncertain univariate distributions, which yields instead a polynomial optimization problem for the distributionally robust counterpart. In Section 6, we present an application of our model and solution method in the domain of water network optimization with real data. 2 Problem statement Consider the following polynomial optimization problem min x?X h(x, ?), (1) where ? ? Rn is an uncertain parameter of the problem. We allow h to be a polynomial in x ? Rm and X to be a basic closed semialgebraic set. That is, even if ? is fixed, (1) is a hard problem in general. In this work, we are interested in distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems that take the form (DRO) min max Ef h(x, ?), x?X f ?D?,N for all t, (2) where x is the decision variable, ? is a random variable distributed according to an unknown probability density function f ? , which is the uncertain parameter in this setting. The expectation Ef is with respect to a density function f , which belongs to an uncertainty set D?,N . This uncertainty set itself is a set of possible probability density functions constructed from a given sequence of samples ?1 , . . . , ?N distributed i.i.d. according to the unknown density function f ? of the uncertain parameter ?. We call D?,N a distributional uncertainty set, it is a random set constructed as follows: D?,N = {f : a prob. density s.t. kf ? fbN k 6 ?}, (3) where ? > 0 is a given constant, k?k is a norm, and fbN is an density function estimated from the samples ?1 , . . . , ?N . We describe the construction of the distributional uncertainty set in the cases of multivariate and univariate samples in Sections 4 and 5. We say that a robust optimization problem is data-driven when the uncertainty set is an element of a sequence of uncertainty sets D?,1 ? D?,2 ? . . ., where the index N represents the number of samples of ? observed by the decision-maker. This definition allows us to completely separate the problem of robust optimization from that of constructing the appropriate uncertainty set D?,N . The underlying assumption is that the uncertainty set (due to finite-sample estimation of the parameter ?) adapts continuously to the data as the sample size N increases. By considering data-driven problems, we are essentially employing tools from statistical learning theory to derive consistency guarantees. Let R[x] denote the vector space of real-valued, multivariate polynomials, i.e., every g ? R[x] is a function g : Rm ? R such that X X ?m m 1 g(x) = g? x? = g? x? 1 . . . xm , ? ? N , |?|6d |?|6d where {g? } is a set of real numbers. A polynomial optimization problem (POP) is given by min q(x), x?K (4) where K = {x ? Rd | g1 (x) > 0, . . . , gm (x) > 0}, q ? R[x], and gj ? R[x] for j = 1, . . . , m. One of our key results arises from the observation that the distributional robust counterpart of a POP is a POP as well. A set K defined by a finite number of multivariate polynomial inequality constraints is called a basic closed semialgebraic set. As shown in [1], if the basic closed semialgebraic set K compact and archimedian, there is a hierarchy of SDP relaxations whose minima 2 converge to the minimum of (4) for increasing order of the relaxation. Moreover, if (4) has an unique minimal solution x? , then the optimal solution y?? of the ? -th order SDP relaxation converges to x? as ? ? ?. Our work combines robust optimization with notions from statistical machine learning, such as density estimation and consistency. Our data-driven robust polynomial optimization method applies to a number of machine learning problems. One example arises in Markov decision problems where a high-dimensional value-function is approximated by a low-dimensional polynomial V . A distributionally robust variant of value iteration can be cast as: X max min Ef {r(x, a, ?) + ? P (x0 | x, a, ?)V (x0 )}, a?A f ?D?,N x0 ?X where ? is a random parameter with unknown distribution and the uncertainty set D?,N of possible distribution is constructed by estimation. We present next two further examples. Example 2.1 (Distributionally robust ridge regression). We are given an i.i.d. sequence of observation-label samples {(?i , yi ) ? Rn?1 ? R : i = 1, . . . , N } from an unknown distribution f ? , where each observation ?i has an associated label yi ? R. Ridge regression minimizes the empirical residual with `2 -regularization and uses the samples to construct residual function. The distributionally robust version of ridge regression is a conceptually different approach: it uses the samples to construct a random uncertainty set D?,N to estimate the distribution f ? and can be formulated as min max u?Rn f ?D?,N Ef (yN +1 ? ?N +1 ? u)2 + ?(u ? u), where D?,N is the uncertainty set of possible densities constructed from the N samples. Our solution methods can even be applied to regression problems with nonconvex loss and penalty functions. Example 2.2 (Robust investment). Optimization problems of the form of (2) arise in problems that involve monetary measures of risk in finance [2]. For instance, the problem of robust investment in a vector of (random) financial positions ? ? Rn is   minn sup ?EQ U (v ? ?) , v?? Q?Q where Q denotes a set of probability distributions, U is a utility function, and v ? ? is an allocation among financial positions. If U is polynomial, then the robust utility functional is a special case of DRO. 3 Our contribution in context To situate our work within the literature, it is important to note that we consider distributional uncertainty sets and polynomial constraints and objectives. In this section, we outline related works with different and similar uncertainty sets, constraints and objectives. Robust optimization problems of the form of (2) have been studied in the literature with different uncertain sets. In several works, the uncertainty sets are defined in terms of moment constraints [3, 4, 5]. Moment based uncertainty sets are motivated by the fact that probabilistic constraints can be replaced by constraints on the first and second moments in some cases [6]. In contrast, we do not consider moment constraints, but distributional uncertainty sets based on probability density functions with the Lp -norm as the metric. One reason for our approach is that higher moments are difficult to estimate [7]. In contrast, probability density functions can be readily estimated using a variety of data-driven methods, e.g., empirical histograms, kernel-based [8, 9], and orthogonal basis [10] estimates. Uncertainty sets defined by distribution-based constraints appear also in problems of risk measures [11]. For example uncertainty sets defined using Kantorovich distance are considered in [5, Section 4] and [11] while [5, Section 3] and [12] consider distributional uncertainty with both measure bounds (of the form ?1 6 ? 6 ?2 ) and moment constraints. [13] considers distributional uncertainty sets with a ??divergence metric. A notion of distributional uncertainty set has also been studied in the setting of Markov decision problems [14]. However, in those works, the uncertainty set is not data-driven. 3 Robust optimization formulations for polynomial optimization problems have been studied in [1, 15] with deterministic uncertainty sets (i.e., neither distributional, nor data-driven). A contribution is to show how to transform distributionally robust counterparts of polynomial optimization problems into polynomial optimization problems. In order to solve these POP, we take advantage of the hierarchy of SDP relaxations from [1]. Another contribution of this work is to use sampled information to construct distributional uncertainty sets more suitable for problems where more and more data is collected over time. 4 Multivariate uncertainty around polynomial density estimate In this section, we construct a data-driven uncertainty set in the L2 -space?with the uniform norm k?k2 . Furthermore we assume, the support of ? is contained in some basic closed semialgebraic set S := {z ? Rn | sj (z) > 0, j = 1, . . . , r}, where sj ? R[z]. In order to construct a data-driven distributional uncertainty set, we need to estimate the density f ? of the parameter ?. Various density estimation approaches exist?e.g., kernel-density and histogram estimation. Some of these give rise to a computational problem due to the curse of dimensionality. However, to ensure that the resulting robust optimization problem remains an polynomial optimization problem, we define the empirical density estimate fbN as a multivariate polynomial (cf. Section 2). Let {?k } denote univariate Legendre polynomials: r 2k + 1 1 dk 2 ?k (a) = (a ? 1)k , 2 2k k! dak a ? R, k = 0, 1, . . . Let ? ? Nn , z ? Rn , and ?? (z) = ??1 (z1 ) . . . ??n (zn ) denote the multivariate Legendre polynomial. In this section, we employ the following Legendre series density estimator [10]: PN P fbN (z) = |?|6d N1 j=1 ?? (?j )?? (z). In turn, we define the following uncertainty set:   Z b Dd,,N = f ? R[z]d | f (z) d z = 1, f ? fN 6  . 2 S where R[z]d denotes the vector space of polynomials in R[z] of degree at most d. Observe that the polynomials in Dd,,N are not required to be non-negative on S. However, the non-negativity constraint on S can be added at the expense of making the resulting DRO problem for a POP a generalized problem of moments. 4.1 Solving the DRO Next, we present asymptotic guarantees for solving distributionally robust polynomial optimization through SDP relaxations. This result rests on the following assumptions, which are detailed in [1]. Assumption 4.1. The sets X = {x ? Rm | kj (z) > 0, j = 1, . . . , t} and S = {z ? Rn | sj (z) > Pt 0, j = 1, . . . , r} are compact. There exist u ? R[x] and v ? R[z] such that u = u0 + j=1 uj kj Pr and v = v0 + j=1 vj sj for some sum-of-squares polynomials {uj }tj=0 , {vj }rj=0 , and the level sets {x | u(x) > 0} and {z | v(z) > 0} compact. Note that sets X and S satisfying Assumption 4.1 are called archimedian. This assumption is not much more restrictive than compactness, e.g., if S := {z ? Rn | sj (z) > 0, j = 1, . . . , r} is compact, then there exists a L2 -ball of radius R that contains S. Thus, S = S? = {z ? Rn | sj (z) > Pn 0, j = 1, . . . , r, i=1 zi2 6 R}. With Theorem 1 in [22] it follows that S? satisfies Assumption 4.1. Theorem 4.1. Suppose that Assumption 4.1 holds. Let h ? R[x, z], fbN ? R[z], and let X and S be basic closed semialgebraic sets. Let V ? ? R denote the optimum of problem Z min max h(x, z)f (z)dz. (5) x?X f ?Dd,?,N S 4 (i) Then, there exists a sequence of SDP relaxations SDPr such that min SDPr % V ? for r ? ?. (ii) If (5) has a unique minimizer x? , and mr the sequence of subvectors of optimal solutions of SDPr associated with the first order moments of monomials in x only. Then, mr ? x? componentwise for r ? ?. All proofs appear in the appendix of the supplementary material. 4.2 Consistency of the uncertainty set In this section, we show that the uncertainty set that we constructed is consistent. In other words, given constants  and ?, we give number of samples N needed to ensure that the closest polynomial to the unknown density f ? belongs to the uncertainty set Dd,?,N with probability 1 ? ?. R Theorem 4.2 ([10, Section 3]). Let c? denote the coefficients c? = ?? f ? for all values of the multi-index ?. Suppose that the density function f ? is square-integrable. We have Ekf ? ? fbN k22 6 P CH ?:|?|6d min(1/N, c2? ), where CH is a constant that depends only on f ? . As a corollary of Theorem 4.2, we obtain the following. Corollary 4.3. Suppose that the assumptions of Theorem 4.2 hold. Let gd? denote the polynomial P ? function gd (x) = ?:|?|6d c? x? . There exists a function1 ? such that ?(d) & 0 as d ? ? and such that P CH ?:|?|6d min(1/N, c2? ) + ?2 (d) ? P(gd ? Dd,?,N ) > 1 ? , (? ? ?(d))2 for ? > ?(d).  P Remark 1. Observe that since ?:|?|6d min(1/N, c2? ) 6 n+d d /N = (n + d)!/(N d! n!), by an appropriate choice of N , it is possible to guarantee that the right-hand side tends to zero, even as d ? ?. 5 Univariate uncertainty around histogram density estimate In this section, we describe an additional layer of approximation for the univariate uncertainty setting. In contrast to Section 4, by approximating the uncertainty set D?,N by a set of histogram density functions, we reduce the DRO problem to a polynomial optimization problem of degree identical with the original problem. Moreover, we derive finite-sample consistency guarantees. We assume that samples ?1 , . . . , ?N are given for the uncertain parameter ?, which takes values in a given interval [A, B] ? R. I.e., in contrast to the previous section, we assume that the uncertain parameter takes values in a bounded interval. We partition R into K-intervals u0 , . . . , uK?1 , such that |uk | = |B ? A| /K for all k = 0, . . . , K ? 1. Let m0 , . . . , mK?1 denote the midpoints of the respective intervals. We define the empirical density vector pbN,K : pbN,K (k) = N 1 X 1[? ?u ] N i=1 i k for all k = 0, . . . , K ? 1. Recall that the L? -norm of a function G : X ? Rn is: kGk? = supx?X |G(x)| . In this section, we approximate the uncertainty set D?,N by a subset of the simplex in RK :  W?,N = p ? ?K : kp ? pbN,K k? 6 ? , where p = (p1 , . . . , pK ) denote a vector in RK . In turn, this will allow us to approximate the DRO problem (2) by the following: (ADRO) : 1 min max x?X p?W?,N K?1 X h (x, mk ) pk . (6) k=0 The function ?(d) quantifies the error due to estimation with in a basis of polynomials with finite degree d. 5 5.1 Solving the DRO The following result is an analogue of Theorem 4.1. Theorem 5.1. Suppose that Assumption 4.1 holds. Let h ? R[x, z], and let X be basic closed semialgebraic2 . Let W ? ? R denote the optimum of problem min max K?1 X x?X p?W?,N h (x, mk ) pk . (7) k=0 (i) Then, there exists a sequence of SDP relaxations SDPr such that min SDPr % W ? for r ? ?. (ii) If (7) has a unique minimizer x? , let mr the sequence of subvectors of optimal solutions of SDPr associated with the first order moments of the monomials in x only. Then, mr ? x? componentwise for r ? ?. 5.2 Approximation error Next, we bound the error of approximating D?,N with W?,N . This error depends only on the ?degree? K of the histogram approximation. Theorem 5.2. Suppose that the support of ? is the interval [A, B]. Suppose that |h(x, z)| 6 H ? , sup{f 00 (z) : f ? D?,N , z ? [A, B]} be finite. Let for all x ? X and z ? [A, B]. Let M gx (z) , h(x, z)f (z) and let M , sup{gx0 (z) : f ? D?,N , z ? [A, B]} be finite. For every ? 6 K?/(B ? A) and density function f ? D?,N , we have a density vector p ? W?,N such that Z K?1 X ? )(B ? A)3 /(24K 2 ). h(x, z) f (z)dz ? h (x, mk ) pk 6 (M + H M z?[A,B] k=0 5.3 Consistency of the uncertainty set Given ? and ?, we consider in this section the number of samples N that we need to ensure that the unknown probability density is in the uncertainty set D?,N with probability 1 ? ?. The consistency guarantee for the univariate histogram uncertainty set follows as a corollary of the following univariate Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz Inequality. Theorem 5.3 ([16]). Let FbN,k denote the distribution function associated with the probabilities pbN,K , and F ? the distribution function associated with the density function f ? . If F ? is continuous, then P(kF ? ? FbN,K k? > ?) 6 2 exp(?2?2 /N ). Corollary 5.4. Let p? denotes the histogram density vector of ? induced by the true density f ? . As N ? ?, we have P(p? ? W?,N ) > 1 ? 2 exp(?2?2 /N ). Remark 2. Provided that the density f ? is Lipchitz continuous, it follows that the optimal value of (A1) converges to the optimal value without uncertainty as the size ? of the uncertainty set tend to zero and the number of sample N tends to infinity. 6 Application to water network optimization In this section, we consider a problem of optimal operation of a water distribution network (WDN). Let G = (V, E) denote a graph, i.e., V is the set of nodes and E the set of pipes connecting the nodes in a WDN. Let wi denote the pressure, ei the elevation, and ? i the demand at node i ? V , qi,j the flow from i to j, and `i,j the loss caused by friction in case of flow from i to j for (i, j) ? E. Our objective is to minimize the overall pressure at selected critical points V1 ? V in the WDN by optimally setting a number of pressure reducing valves (PRVs) located on certain pipes in the network while adhering to the conservations laws for flow and pressure: min h(w, q, ?), (w,q)?X 2 where Since S is an interval, the assumption is trivially satisfied for S. 6 (8) X h(w, q, ?) := wi + ? X ?j ? j?V i?V1 X qk,j + k6=j X qj,l 2 , l6=j X := {(w, q) ? R|N |+2|E| | wmin 6 wi 6 wmax , qmin 6 qi,j 6 qmax , qi,j (wj + ej ? wi ? ei + `i,j (qi,j )) 6 0, wj + ej ? wi ? ei + `i,j (qi,j ) > 0, ?(i, j)}. We assume that `i,j is a quadratic function in qi,j . The PRV sets the pressure wi at the node i. The derivation of (8) and a detailed description of the problem appear in [17]. Thus, h ? R[w, q, ?] and X is a basic closed semialgebraic set. For a fixed vector of demands ? = (? 1 , . . . , ? |V | ), (8) falls into the class (1). In real-world water networks, the demand ? is uncertain. Given are ranges for the possible realization of nodal demands, i.e., the support of ? is given by S := {? z ? R|N | | zimin 6 max z?i 6 zi }. Moreover, we assume that samples ?1 , . . . , ?N of ? are given and that they corresponds to sensors measurements. Therefore, the distributionally robust counterpart of (8) is of the form of ADRO (6). 1 1 2 9 3 10 4 30 5 31 50 23 32 33 34 27 24 23 6 3 9 35 30 2212 7 11 14 25 28 21 15 20 4 16 8 40 35 26 24 11 13 25 7 37 8 25 10 5 45 36 6 2 12 13 17 19 16 14 18 19 17 20 15 20 15 18 21 29 10 22 0 5 10 15 20 25 Figure 1: (a) 25 node network with PRVs on pipes 1, 5 and 11. (b) Scatter plot of demand at node 15 over four months overlaid over the 24 hours of a day. We consider the benchmark WDN with |V | = 25 and |E| = 37 of [18], which is illustrated in Figure 1 (a). We assign demand values at the nodes of this WDN according to real data collected in an anonymous major city. In our experiment we assume the demands at all nodes, except at node 15, are fixed; for node 15 N = 120 samples of daily demands were collected over four months?the dataset is shown in Figure 1 (b). Node 15 has been selected because it is one of the largest consumers and has a demand profile with the largest variation. First, we consider the uncertainty set W?,N constructed from a histogram estimation with K = 5 bins. consider, (a) the deterministic problem (8) with three values ?min := mini ?i15 , ?? := P We 1 15 and ?max := maxi ?i15 as the demand at node 15, (b) the distributionally robust i ?i N counterpart (A1) with  = 0.2 and ? = 1, and (c) the classical robust formulation of (8) with an uncertainty range [?min , ?max ] without any distributional assumption, i.e., the problem min(w,q)?X max?15 ?[?min , ?max ] h(w, q, ? 15 ) which is equivalent to  min max h(w, q, ?min ) , h(w, q, ?max ) (9) (w,q)?X 2 P P since ? 15 ? k6=15 qk,15 + l6=15 q15,l in (8) is convex quadratic in ? 15 attains its maximum at the boundary of [?min , ?max ]. We solve (9) by solving the two polynomial optimization problems. All three cases (a)?(c), are polynomial optimization problems which we solve by first applying the sparse SDP relaxation of first order [19] with SDPA [20] as the SDP solver, and then applying IPOPT [21] with the SparsePOP solution as starting point. Computations on single blade server with 100GB (total, 80 GB free) of RAM and a processor speed of 3.5GHz. Total computation time is denoted as tC . 7 ? 15 ?min ?? ?max tC 738 868 624 optimal setting (15.0, 15.7, 15.9) (15.0, 15.5, 15.6) (15.0, 15.4, 15.5) P i?V1 wi 46.7 46.1 45.9 Table 1: Results for non-robust case (a). Problem DRO (b) RO (c) tC 1315 1460 optimal setting (15.0, 15.5, 15.7) (15.0, 16.9, 17.3) objective 6.62 ? 105 1.54 ? 106 P wi 46.2 49.2 Table 2: Results for DRO case (b) and classical robust case (c). The P results for the deterministic case (a) show that the optimal setting and the overall pressure sum i?V1 wi differ even when the demand at only one node changes, as reported in Table 1. Comparing the distributionally robust (b) and robust (c) optimal solution for the optimal PRV setting problem, we observe, that the objective value of the distributionally robust counterpart is substantially smaller than the robust one. Thus, the distributionally robust solution is less conservative than the robust solution. Moreover, the distributionally robust setting is very close to the average case deterministic solution ?? - but it does not coincide. It seems to hedge the solution against the worst case realization for the demand, given by the scenario ? = ?min , which results in the highest pressure profile. Moreover, note that solving the distributionally robust (and robust ) counterpart requires the same order of magnitude in computational time as the deterministic problem. That may be due to the fact that both the deterministic and the robust problems are hard polynomial optimization problems. 7 Discussion We introduced a notion of distributional robustness for polynomial optimization problems. The distributional uncertainty sets based on statistical estimates for the probability density functions have the advantage that they are data-driven and consistent with the data for increasing samplesize. Moreover, they give solutions that are less conservative than classical robust optimization with valued-based uncertainty sets. We have shown that these distributional robust counterparts of polynomial optimization problems remain in the same class problems from the perspective of computational complexity. This methodology is promising for a numerous real-world decision problems, where one faces the combined challenge of hard, non-convex models and uncertainty in the input parameters. We can extend the histogram method of Section 5 to the case of multivariate uncertainty, but it is well-known that the sample-complexity of histogram density-estimation is greater than polynomial density-estimation. An alternative definition of the distributional uncertainty set D?,N is to allow functions that are not proper density functions by removing some constraints; this gives a trade-off between reduced computational complexity and more conservative solutions. The solution method of SDP relaxations comes without any finite-time guarantees. Although such guarantees are hard to come by in general, an open problem is to identify special cases that give insight into the rate of convergence of this method. Acknowledgments J. Y. Yu was supported in part by the EU FP7 project INSIGHT under grant 318225. References [1] J. B. Lasserre. A semidefinite programming approach to the generalized problem of moments. Math. Programming, 112:65?92, 2008. 8 [2] A. Schied. Optimal investments for robust utility functionals in complete market models. Math. Oper. Research, 30(3):750?764, 2005. [3] E. Delage and Y. Ye. Distributionally robust optimization under moment uncertainty with applications to data-driven problems. Operations Research, 2009. [4] D. Bertsimas, X. V. Doan, K. Natarajan, and C.-P. Teo. Models for minimax stochastic linear optimization problems with risk aversion. Math. Oper. Res., 35(3):580?602, 2010. [5] S. Mehrotra and H. Zhang. Models and algorithms for distributionally robust least squares problems. Preprint, 2011. [6] D. Bertsimas and I. Popescu. Optimal inequalities in probability theory: a convex optimization approach. SIAM J. Optimization, 15:780?804, 2000. [7] P. R. Halmos. The theory of unbiased estimation. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 17(1):34?43, 1946. [8] B.W. Silverman. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1998. [9] L. Devroye and L. Gy?rfi. Nonparametric Density Estimation. Wiley, 1985. [10] P. Hall. On the rate of convergence of orthogonal series density estimators. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 48(1):115?122, 1986. [11] G. Pflug and D. Wozabal. Ambiguity in portfolio selection. Quantitative Finance, 7(4):435? 442, 2007. [12] A. Shapiro and S. Ahmed. On a class of minimax stochastic programs. SIAM J. Optim., 14(4):1237?1249, 2004. [13] A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, A. de Waegenaere, B. Melenerg, and G. Rennen. Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities. Management Science, 2012. [14] H. Xu and S. Mannor. Distributionally robust markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 37(2):288?300, 2012. [15] R. Laraki and J. B. Lasserre. Semidefinite programming for min-max problems and games. Math. Programming A, 131:305?332, 2010. [16] P. Massart. The tight constant in the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality. Annals of Probability, 18(3):1269?1283, 1990. [17] B. J. Eck and M. Mevissen. Valve placement in water networks. Technical report, IBM Research, 2012. Report No. RC25307 (IRE1209-014). [18] A. Sterling and A. Bargiela. Leakage reduction by optimised control of valves in water networks. Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control, 6(6):293?298, 1984. [19] H. Waki, S. Kim, M. Kojima, M. Muramatsu, and H. Sugimoto. SparsePOP: a sparse semidefinite programming relaxation of polynomial optimization problems. ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software, 35(2), 2008. [20] M. Yamashita, K. Fujisawa, K. Nakata, M. Nakata, M. Fukuda, K. Kobayashi, and K. Goto. A high-performance software package for semidefinite programs: SDPA 7. Technical report, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2010. [21] A. Waechter and L. T. Biegler. On the implementation of a primal-dual interior point filter line search algorithm for large-scale nonlinear programming. Mathematical Programming, 106(1):25?57, 2006. [22] M. Schweighofer. Optimization of polynomials on compact semialgebraic sets. SIAM J. Optimization, 15:805?825, 2005. 9
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Multiscale Dictionary Learning for Estimating Conditional Distributions Francesca Petralia Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences Icahn School of Medicine at Mt Sinai New York, NY 10128, U.S.A. [email protected] Joshua Vogelstein Child Mind Institute Department of Statistical Science Duke University Durham, North Carolina 27708, U.S.A. [email protected] David B. Dunson Department of Statistical Science Duke University Durham, North Carolina 27708, U.S.A. [email protected] Abstract Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given highdimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features. 1 Introduction Massive datasets are becoming an ubiquitous by-product of modern scientific and industrial applications. These data present statistical and computational challenges because many previously developed analysis approaches do not scale-up sufficiently. Challenges arise because of the ultra high-dimensionality and relatively low sample size. Parsimonious models for such big data assume that the density in the ambient space concentrates around a lower-dimensional (possibly nonlinear) subspace. A plethora of methods are emerging to estimate such lower-dimensional subspaces [1, 2]. We are interested in using such lower-dimensional embeddings to obtain estimates of the conditional distribution of some target variable(s). This conditional density estimation setting arises in a number of important application areas, including neuroscience, genetics, and video processing. For example, one might desire automated estimation of a predictive density for a neurologic phenotype of interest, such as intelligence, on the basis of available data for a patient including neuroimaging. The challenge is to estimate the probability density function of the phenotype nonparametrically based on a 106 dimensional image of the subject?s brain. It is crucial to avoid parametric assumptions on the density, such as Gaussianity, while allowing the density to change flexibly with predictors. Otherwise, one can obtain misleading predictions and poorly characterize predictive uncertainty. 1 There is a rich machine learning and statistical literature on conditional density estimation of a response y ? Y given a set of features (predictors) x = (x1 , x2 , . . . , xp )T ? X ? Rp . Common approaches include hierarchical mixtures of experts [3, 4], kernel methods [5, 6, 7], Bayesian finite mixture models [8, 9, 10] and Bayesian nonparametrics [11, 12, 13, 14]. However, there has been limited consideration of scaling to large p settings, with the variational Bayes approach of [9] being a notable exception. For dimensionality reduction, [9] follow a greedy variable selection algorithm. Their approach does not scale to the sized applications we are interested in. For example, in a problem with p = 1, 000 and n = 500, they reported a CPU time of 51.7 minutes for a single analysis. We are interested in problems with p having many more orders of magnitude, requiring a faster computing time while also accommodating flexible nonlinear dimensionality reduction (variable selection is a limited sort of dimension reduction). To our knowledge, there are no nonparametric density regression competitors to our approach, which maintain a characterization of uncertainty in estimating the conditional densities; rather, all sufficiently scalable algorithms provide point predictions and/or rely on restrictive assumptions such as linearity. In big data problems, scaling is often accomplished using divide-and-conquer techniques. However, as the number of features increases, the problem of finding the best splitting attribute becomes intractable, so that CART, MARS and multiple tree models cannot be efficiently applied. Similarly, mixture of experts becomes computationally demanding, since both mixture weights and dictionary densities are predictor dependent. To improve efficiency, sparse extensions relying on different variable selection algorithms have been proposed [15]. However, performing variable selection in high dimensions is effectively intractable: algorithms need to efficiently search for the best subsets of predictors to include in weight and mean functions within a mixture model, an NP-hard problem [16]. In order to efficiently deal with massive datasets, we propose a novel multiscale approach which starts by learning a multiscale dictionary of densities. This tree is efficiently learned in a first stage using a fast and scalable graph partitioning algorithm applied to the high-dimensional observations [17]. Expressing the conditional densities f (y|x) for each x ? X as a convex combination of coarse-to-fine scale dictionary densities, the learning problem in the second stage estimates the corresponding multiscale probability tree. This is accomplished in a Bayesian manner using a novel multiscale stick-breaking process, which allows the data to inform about the optimal bias-variance tradeoff; weighting coarse scale dictionary densities more highly decreases variance while adding to bias. This results in a model that borrows information across different resolution levels and reaches a good compromise in terms of the bias-variance tradeoff. We show that the algorithm scales efficiently to millions of features. 2 Setting Let X : ? ? X ? Rp be a p-dimensional Euclidean vector-valued predictor random variable, taking values x ? X , with a marginal probability distribution fX . Similarly, let Y : ? ? Y be a targetvalued random variable (e.g., Y ? R). For inferential expedience, we posit the existence of a latent variable ? : ? ? M ? X , where M is only d ?dimensional? and d  p. Note that M need not be a linear subspace of X , rather, M could be, for example, a union or affine subspaces, or a smooth compact Riemannian manifold. Regardless of the nature of M, we assume that we can approximately decompose the joint distribution as follows, fX,Y,? = fX,Y |? f? = fY |X,? fX|? f? ? fY |? fX|? f? . Hence, we assume that the signal approximately concentrates around a low-dimensional latent space, fY |X,? = fY |? . This is a much less restrictive assumption than the commonplace assumption in manifold learning that the marginal distribution fX concentrates around a low-dimensional latent space. To provide some intuition for our model, we provide the following concrete example where the distribution of y ? R is a Gaussian function of the coordinate ? ? M along the swissroll, which is embedded in a high-dimensional ambient space. Specifically, we sample the manifold coordinate, ? ? U (0, 1). We sample x = (x1 , . . . , xp )T as follows x1 = ? sin(?) ; x2 = ? cos(?) ; xr ? N (0, 1) r ? {3, . . . , p} Finally, we sample y from N (?(?), ?(?)). Clearly, x and y are conditionally independent given ?, which is the low-dimensional signal manifold. In particular, x lives on a swissroll embedded in a 2 p-dimensional ambient space, but y is only a function of the coordinate ? along the swissroll M. The left panels of Figure 1 depict this example when ?(?) = ? and ?(?) = ? + 1. Figure 1: Illustration of our generative model and algorithm on a swissroll. The top left panel shows the manifold M (a swissroll) embedded in a p-dimensional ambient space, where the color indicates the coordinate along the manifold, ? (only the first 3 dimensions are shown for visualization purposes). The bottom left panel shows the distribution of y as a function of ?, in particular, fY |? = N (?, ? + 1). The middle and right panels show our estimates of fY |? at scales 3 and 4, respectively, which follow from partitioning our data. Sample size was n = 10, 000. 3 Goal Our goal is to develop an approach to learn about fY |X from n pairs of observations that we assume are exchangeable samples from the joint distribution, (xi , yi ) ? fX,Y ? F. Let Dn = {(xi , yi )}i?[n] , where [n] = {1, . . . , n}. More specifically, we seek to obtain a posterior over fY |X . We insist that our approach satisfies several desiderata, including most importantly: (i) scales up to p ? 106 in reasonable time, (ii) yields good empirical results, and (iii) automatically adapts to the complexity of the data corpus. To our knowledge, no extant approach for estimating conditional densities or posteriors thereof satisfies even our first criterion. 4 4.1 Methodology Ms. Deeds Framework We propose here a general modular approach which we refer to as multiscale dictionary learning for estimating conditional distributions (?Ms. Deeds?). Ms. Deeds consists of two components: (i) a tree decomposition of the space, and (ii) an assumed form of the conditional probability model. Tree Decomposition A tree decomposition ? yields a multiscale partition of the data or the ambient space in which the data live. Let (W, ?W , FW ) be a measurable metric space, where FW is a Borel probability measure, W, and ?W : W ?W ? R is a metric on W. Let BrW (w) be the ?W -ball inside W of radius r > 0 centered at w ? W. For example, W could be the data corpus Dn , or it could be X ? Y. We define a tree decomposition as in [2, 18]. A partition tree ? of W consists of a collection of cells, ? = {Cj,k }j?Z,k?Kj . At each scale j, the set of cells Cj = {Cj,k }k?Kj provides a disjoint partition of W almost everywhere. We define j = 0 as the root node. For each j > 0, each set has a unique parent node. Denote Aj,k = {(j 0 , k 0 ) : Cj,k ? Cj 0 ,k0 , j 0 < j} , Dj,k = {(j 0 , k 0 ) : Cj 0 ,k0 ? Cj,k , j 0 > j} respectively the ancestors and the descendants of node (j, k). 3 Unlike classical harmonic theory which presupposes ? (e.g., in wavelets [19]), we choose to learn ? from the data. Previously, Chen et al. [18] developed a multiscale measure estimation strategy, and proved that there exists a scale j such that the approximate measure is within some bound of the true measure, under certain relatively general assumptions. We decided to simply partition the x?s, ignoring the y?s in the partitioning strategy. Our justification for this choice is as follows. First, sometimes there are many different y?s for many different applications. In such cases, we do not want to bias the partitioning to any specific y?s, all the more so when new unknown y?s may later emerge. Second, because the x?s are so much higher dimensional than the y?s in our applications of interest, the partitions would be dominated by the x?s, unless we chose a partitioning strategy that emphasized the y?s. Thus, our strategy mitigates this difficulty (while certainly introducing others). Given that we are going to partition using only the x?s, we still face the choice of precisely how to partition. A fully Bayesian approach would construct a large number of partitions, and integrate over them to obtain posteriors. However, such a fully Bayesian strategy remains computationally intractable at scale, so we adopt a hybrid strategy. Specifically, we employ METIS [17], a well-known relatively efficient multiscale partitioning algorithm with demonstrably good empirical performance on a wide range of graphs. Given n observations, i.e. xi = (xi1 , . . . , xip )T ? X for i ? [n], the graph construction follows via computing all pairwise distances using ?(xu , xv ) = k? xu ? x ?v k2 , where x ? is the whitened x (i.e., mean subtracted and variance normalized). We let there be an edge 2 between xu and xv whenever e??(xu ,xv ) > t, where t is some threshold chosen to elicit the desired sparsity level. Applying METIS recursively on the graph constructed in this way yields a single tree (see supplementary material for further details). Conditional Probability Model Given the tree decomposition of the data, we place a nonparametric prior over the tree. Specifically, we define fY |X as X fY |X = ?j,kj (x) fj,kj (x) (y|x) (1) j?Z where kj (x) P is the set at scale j where x has been allocated and ?j,kj (x) are weights across scales such that j?Z ?j,kj (x) = 1. We let weights in Eq. (1) be generated by a stick-breaking process [20]. For each node Cj,k in the partition tree, we define a stick length Vj,k ? Beta(1, ?). The parameter ? encodes the complexity of the model, with ? = 0 corresponding to the case in which f (y|x) = f (y). The stick-breaking process is defined as Y ?j,k = Vj,k [1 ? Vj 0 ,k0 ] , (2) (j 0 ,k0 )?Aj,k P where (j 0 ,k0 )?Aj,k ?j 0 ,k0 = 1. The implication of this is that each scale within a path is weighted to optimize the bias/variance trade-off across scales. We refer to this prior as a multiscale stickbreaking process. Note that this Bayesian nonparametric prior assigns a positive probability to all possible paths, including those not observed in the training data. Thus, by adopting this Bayesian formulation, we are able to obtain posterior estimates for any newly observed data, regardless of the amount and variability of training data. This is a pragmatically useful feature of the Bayesian formulation, in addition to the alleviation of the need to choose a scale [18]. Each fj,k in Eq. (1) is an element of a family of distributions. This family might be quite general, e.g., all possible conditional densities, or quite simple, e.g., Gaussian distributions. Moreover, the family can adapt with j or k, being more complex at the coarser scales (for which nj,k ?s are larger), and simpler for the finer scales (or partitions with fewer samples). We let the family of conditional densities for y be Gaussian for simplicity, that is, we assume that fj,k = N (?j,k , ?j,k ) with ?j,k ? R and ?j,k ? R+ . Because we are interested in posteriors over the conditional distribution fY |X , we place relatively uninformative but conjugate priors on ?j,k and ?j,k , specifically, assuming the y?s have been whitened and are unidimensional, ?j,k ? N (0, 1) and ?j,k = IG(a, b). Obviously, other choices, such as finite or infinite mixtures of Gaussians are also possible for continuous valued data. 4.2 Inference We introduce the latent variable `i ? Z, for i = [n], denoting the multiscale level used by the ith observation. Let nj,k be the number of observations in Cj,k . Let kh (xi ) be a variable indicating the 4 set at level h where xi has been allocated. Each Gibbs sampler iteration can be summarized in the following steps: (i) Update `i by sampling from the multinomial full conditional: X Pr(`i = j | ?) = ?j,kj (xi ) fj,kj (xi ) (yi |xi )/ ?s,ks (xi ) fs,ks (xi ) (yi |xi ) s?Z 0 0 (ii) Update stick-breaking random variable P Vj,k , for any j ? Z and k ? Kj , from Beta(? , ? ) 0 0 with ? = 1 + nj,k and ? = ? + (r,s)?Dj,k nr,s . (iii) Update ?j,k and ?j,k , for any j ? Z and k ? Kj , by sampling from P 2 ?j,k ? N (?j,k ?j,k y?j,k , ?j,k ) , ?j,k ? IG a? , b + 0.5 i?Ij,k (yi ? ?j,k ) where ?j,k = (1 + ?j,k )?1 , ?j,k = nj,k /?j,k a? = a + nj,k /2, y?j,k being the average of the observations {yi } allocated to cell Cj,k and Ij,k = {i : `i = j, xi ? Cj,k }. To make predictions, the Gibbs sampler was run with up to 20, 000 iterations, including a burnin of 1, 000 (see Supplementary material for details). Gibbs sampler chains were stopped testing normality of normalized averages of functions of the Markov chain [21]. Parameters (a, b) and ? involved in the prior density of parameters ?j,k ?s and Vj,k ?s were set to (3, 1) and 1, respectively. All predictions used a leave-one-out strategy. 4.3 Simulation Studies In order to assess the predictive performance of the proposed model, we considered the four different simulation scenarios described below: (1) Nonlinear Mixture We first consider a relatively simple yet nonlinear joint model, with a conditional Gaussian distribution y|? ? |?|N (?1 , ?1 ) + (1 ? |?|)N (?2 , ?2 ), a marginal distribution for each dimension of x, xr |? ? N (?, ?x ), r ? {1, 2, . . . , p}, and a uniform distribution over the latent manifold ? ? sin(U (0, c)). In the simulations we let (?1 , ?1 ) = (?2, 1), (?2 , ?2 ) = (2, 1), ?x = 0.1, and c = 20, and p = 1000. Thus, fY |X is a highly nonlinear function of x, and even ?, and x is high-dimensional. (2) Swissroll We then return to the swissroll example of Figure 1; in Figure 3 we show results for (?, ?) = (?, 1). (3) Linear Subspace Letting ? ? Rp+1?q and ? be a q ? d ?diagonal? matrix (meaning all entires other than the first d < q elements of the diagonal are zero), we assume the following model: Y, X|? ? Np+1 (???, I), where ? ? Sp+1,d indicates ? is uniformly sampled from the set of all orthonormal d frames in Rp+1 (a Stiefel manifold), ?ii ? IG(a? , b? ) for i ? {1, . . . , d} and all other elements of ? are zero, and ? ? Nd (0, I). In the simulation, we let q = d = 5, (?? , ?? ) = (1, 0.25). (4) Union of Linear Subspaces This model is a direct extension of the linear subspace model, as it is a union of subspaces. We let the dimensionality of each subspace vary to demonstrate PG the generality of our procedure. Specifically, we assume Y, X|? ? g=1 ?g Np+1 (?g ?g ?, I), ? ? Dirichlet(?), ? ? Nd (0, I), where ? ? Sp+1,g and ?g is ?diagonal? with ?ii ? IG(ag , bg ) for i ? {1, . . . , g}, and the remaining elements of ? are zero. In the simulation, we let G = 5, ? = (1, . . . , 1)T , (?g , ?g ) = (?? , ?? ) as above. 4.4 Neuroscience Applications We assessed the predictive performance of the proposed method on two very different neuroimaging datasets. For all analyses, each variable was normalized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. The prior specification and Gibbs sampler described in ?4.1 and 4.2 were utilized. In the first experiment we investigated the extent to which we could predict creativity (as measured via the Composite Creativity Index [22]) via a structural connectome dataset collected at the Mind Research Network (data were collected as described in Jung et al. [23]). For each subject, we estimate a 70 vertex undirected weighted brain-graph using the Magnetic Resonance Connectome Automated Pipeline (MRCAP) [24] from diffusion tensor imaging data [25]. Because our graphs are 5  undirected and lack self-loops, we have a total of p = 70 2 = 2, 415 potential weighted edges. The p-dimensional feature vector is defined by the natural logarithm of the vectorized matrix described above. The second dataset comes from a resting-state functional magnetic resonance experiment as part of the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange [26]. We selected the Yale Child Study Center for analysis. Each brain-image was processed using the Configurable Pipeline for Analysis of Connectomes (CPAC) [27]. For each subject, we computed a measure of normalized power at each voxel called fALFF [28]. To ensure the existence of nonlinear signal relating these predictors, we let yi correspond to an estimate of overall head motion in the scanner, called mean framewise displacement (FD) computed as described in Power et al. [29]. In total, there were p = 902, 629 voxels. 4.5 Evaluation Criteria A A defined as rm = ?(M SB)/?(A), where To compare algorithmic performance we considered rm ? is the quantity of interest (for example, CPU time in seconds or mean squared error), MSB is our approach and A is the competitor algorithm. To obtain mean-squared error estimates from MSB, we select our posterior mean as a point-estimate (the comparison algorithms do not generate posterior predictions, only point estimates). For each simulation scenario, we sampled multiple A . In other words, rather than running simulations datasets and compute the matched distribution of rm and reporting the distribution of performance for each algorithm, we compare the algorithms per simulation. This provides a much more informative indication of algorithmic performance, in that we indicate the fraction of simulations one algorithm outperforms another on some metric. For each A example, we sampled 20 datasets to obtain estimates of the distribution over rm . All experiments were performed on a typical workstation, Intel Core i7-2600K Quad-Core Processor with 8192 MB of RAM. 5 5.1 Results Illustrative Example The middle and right panels of Figure 1 depict the quality of partitioning and density estimation for the swissroll example described in ?2, with the ambient dimension p = 1000 and the predictive manifold dimension d = 1. We sampled n = 104 samples for this illustration. At scale 3 we have 4 partitions, and at scale 4 we have 8 (note that the partition tree, in general, need not be binary). The top panels are color coded to indicate which xi ?s fall into which partition. Although imperfect, it should be clear that the data are partitioned very well. The bottom panels show the resulting estimate of the posteriors at the two scales. These posteriors are piecewise constant, as they are invariant to the manifold coordinate within a given partition. To obviate the need to choose a scale to use to make a prediction, we choose to adopt a Bayesian approach and integrate across scales. Figure 2 shows the estimated density of two observations of model (1) with parameters (?1 , ?1 ) = (?2, 1), (?2 , ?2 ) = (2, 1), ?x = 0.1, and c = 20 for different sample sizes. Posteriors of the conditional density fY |X were computed for various sample sizes. Figure 2 suggests that our estimate of fY |X approaches the true density as the number of observations in the training set increases. We are unable to compare our strategy for posterior estimation to previous literature because we are unaware of previous Bayesian approaches for this problem that scale up to problems of this size. Therefore, we numerically compare the performance of our point-estimates (which we define as the posterior mean of f?Y |X ) with the predictions of the competitor algorithms. 5.2 Quantitative Comparisons for Simulated Data Figure 3 compares the numerical performance of our algorithm (MSB) with Lasso (black), CART (red), and PC regression (green) in terms of both mean-squared error (top) and CPU time (bottom) for models (2), (3), and (4) in the left, middle, and right panels respectively. These figures show relative performance on a per simulation basis, thus enabling a much more powerful comparison than averaging performance for each algorithm over a set of simulations. Note that these three simulations span a wide range of models, including nonlinear smooth manifolds such as the swissroll 6 f(y|?=?0.9) n=100 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 ?2 0 2 4 0 ?4 0.3 ?2 0 2 0 ?4 4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 ?4 ?2 0 y 2 4 0 ?4 Figure 2: Illustrative example of model (1) suggesting that our posterior estimates of the conditional density are converging as n increases even when fY |? is highly nonlinear and fX|? is very high-dimensional. True (red) and estimated (black) density (50th percentile: solid line, 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles: dashed lines) for two data positions along the manifold (top panels: ? ? ?0.9, bottom panels: ? ? 0.5) considering different training set sizes. n=200 0.9 0 ?4 f(y|?=0.5) n=150 0.9 ?2 0 2 4 0 ?4 ?2 0 2 4 ?2 0 2 4 (model 2), relatively simple linear subspace manifolds (model 3), and a union of linear subspaces model (model 4 ; which is neither linear nor a manifold). In terms of predictive accuracy, the top panels show that for all three simulations, in every dimensionality that we considered?including p = 0.5 ? 106 ?MSB is more accurate than either Lasso, CART, or PC regression. Note that this is the case even though MSB provides much more information about the posterior fY |X , yielding an entire posterior over fY |X , rather than merely a point estimate. In terms of computational time, MSB is much faster than the competitors for large p and n, as shown in the bottom three panels. The supplementary materials show that computational time for MSB is relatively constant as a function of p, whereas Lasso?s computational time grows considerably with p. Thus, for large enough p, MSB is significantly faster that Lasso. MSB is faster than CART and PC regression for all p and n under consideration. Thus, it is clear from these simulations that MSB has better scaling properties?in terms of both predictive accuracy and computational time?than the competitor methods. MSE Ratio (2) Swissroll (3) Linear Subspace (4) Union of Linear Subspaces 1 1 1 0 50k p 100k 0 50k p 100k 0 50k p 100k 4 1 Time Ratio 1 2 0 100 200 300 sample size 0 100k 200k 300k p 0 100 200 300 sample size Figure 3: Numerical results for various simulation scenarios. Top plots depict the relative meansquared error of MSB (our approach), versus CART (red), Lasso (black), and PC regression (green) for as a function of ambient dimension of x. Bottom plots depict the ratio of CPU time as a function of sample size. The three simulation scenarios are: swissroll (left), linear subspaces (middle), union of linear subspaces (right). MSB outperforms both CART, Lasso, and PC regression in all three A scenarios regardless of ambient dimension (rmse < 1 for all p). MSB compute time is relatively constant as n or p increase, whereas Lasso?s compute time increases, thus, as n or p increase, MSB CPU time becomes less than Lasso?s. MSB was always significantly faster than CART and PC regression, regardless of n or p. For all panels, n = 100 when p varies, and p = 300k when n varies, where k indicates 1000, e.g., 300k= 3 ? 105 . 7 Table 1: Neuroscience application quantitative performance comparisons. Squared error predictive accuracy per subject (using leave-one-out) was computed. We report the mean and standard deviation (s.d.) across subjects of squared error, and CPU time (in seconds). We compare multiscale stick-breaking (MSB), CART, Lasso, random forest (RF), and PC regression. MSB outperforms all the competitors in terms of predictive accuracy and scalability. Only MSB and Lasso even ran for the ? 106 dimensional application. Bold indicates best MSE, ? indicates best CPU time. 5.3 DATA CREATIVITY n 108 p 2,415 MOVEMENT 56 ? 106 MODEL MSB CART L ASSO? RF PC REGRESSION MSB? L ASSO MSE ( S . D .) 0.56 (0.85) 1.10 (1.00) 0.63 (0.95)? 0.57(0.90) 0.65 (0.88) 0.76 (0.90)? 1.02 (0.98) TIME ( S . D .) 1.1 (0.02) 0.9 (0.01) 0.40 (0.10)? 78.2 (0.59) 0.46 (0.37) 20.98 (2.31)? 96.18 (9.66) Quantitative Comparisons for Neuroscience Applications Table 1 shows the mean and standard deviation of point-estimate predictions per subject (using leave-one-out) for the two neuroscience applications that we investigated: (i) predicting creativity from diffusion MRI (creativity) and, (ii) predicting head motion based on functional MRI (movement). For the creativity application, p was relatively small, ?merely? 2, 415, so we could run Lasso, CART, and random forests (RF) [30]. For the movement application, p was nearly one million. For both applications, MSB yielded improved predictive accuracy over all competitors. Although CART and Lasso were faster than MSB on the relatively low-dimensional predictor example (creativity), their computational scaling was poor, such that CART yielded a memory fault on the higherdimensional case, and Lasso required substantially more time than MSB. 6 Discussion In this work we have introduced a general formalism to estimate conditional distributions via multiscale dictionary learning. An important property of any such strategy is the ability to scale up to ultrahigh-dimensional predictors. We considered simulations and real-data examples where the dimensionality of the predictor space approached one million. To our knowledge, no other approach to learn conditional distributions can run at this scale. Our approach explicitly assumes that the posterior fY |X can be well approximated by projecting x onto a lower-dimensional space, fY |X ? fY |? , where ? ? M ? Rd , and x ? Rd . Note that this assumption is much less restrictive than assuming that x is close to a low-dimensional space; rather, we only assume that the part of fX that ?matters? to predict y lives near a low-dimensional subspace. Because a fully Bayesian strategy remains computationally intractable at this scale, we developed an empirical Bayes approach, estimating the partition tree based on the data, but integrating over scales and posteriors. We demonstrate that even though we obtain posteriors over the conditional distribution fY |X , our approach, dubbed multiscale stick-breaking (MSB), outperforms several standard machine learning algorithms in terms of both predictive accuracy and computational time, as the sample size (n) and ambient dimension (p) increase. This improvement was demonstrated when the M was a swissroll, a latent subspace, a union of latent subspaces, and real data (for which the latent space may not even exist). In future work, we will extend these numerical results to obtain theory on posterior convergence. Indeed, while multiscale methods benefit from a rich theoretical foundation [2], the relative advantages and disadvantages of a fully Bayesian approach, in which one can estimate posteriors over all functionals of fY |X at all scales, remains relatively unexplored. References [1] I. U. Rahman, I. Drori, V. C. Stodden, and D. L. Donoho. Multiscale representations for manifold- valued data. SIAM J. Multiscale Model, 4:1201?1232, 2005. 8 [2] W.K. Allard, G. Chen, and M. Maggioni. Multiscale geometric methods for data sets II: geometric wavelets. Applied and Computational Harmonic Analysis, 32:435?462, 2012. [3] R. A. Jacobs, M. I. Jordan, S. J. Nowlan, and G. E. Hinton. Adaptive mixture of local experts. Neural Computation, 3:79?87, 1991. [4] W. X. Jiang and M. A. Tanner. Hierarchical mixtures-of-experts for exponential family regression models: approximation and maximum likelihood estimation. Annals of Statistics, 27:987?1011, 1999. [5] J. Q. Fan, Q. W. Yao, and H. Tong. Estimation of conditional densities and sensitivity measures in nonlinear dynamical systems. Biometrika, 83:189?206, 1996. [6] M. P. Holmes, G. A. Gray, and C. L. Isbell. Fast kernel conditional density estimation: a dual-tree Monte Carlo approach. Computational statistics & data analysis, 54:1707?1718, 2010. [7] G. Fu, F. Y. Shih, and H. Wang. A kernel-based parametric method for conditional density estimation. Pattern recognition, 44:284?294, 2011. [8] D. J. Nott, S. L. Tan, M. Villani, and R. Kohn. Regression density estimation with variational methods and stochastic approximation. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 21:797?820, 2012. [9] M. N. Tran, D. J. Nott, and R. Kohn. Simultaneous variable selection and component selection for regression density estimation with mixtures of heteroscedastic experts. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 6:1170?1199, 2012. [10] A. Norets and J. Pelenis. Bayesian modeling of joint and conditional distributions. Journal of Econometrics, 168:332?346, 2012. [11] J. E. Griffin and M. F. J. Steel. Order-based dependent Dirichlet processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101:179?194, 2006. [12] D. B. Dunson, N. Pillai, and J. H. Park. Bayesian density regression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Statistical Methodology, 69:163?183, 2007. [13] Y. Chung and D. B. Dunson. Nonparametric Bayes conditional distribution modeling with variable selection. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 104:1646?1660, 2009. [14] S. T. Tokdar, Y. M. Zhu, and J. K. Ghosh. Bayesian density regression with logistic Gaussian process and subspace projection. Bayesian Analysis, 5:319?344, 2010. [15] I. Mossavat and O. Amft. Sparse bayesian hierarchical mixture of experts. IEEE Statistical Signal Processing Workshop (SSP), 2011. [16] Isabelle Guyon and Andr?e Elisseeff. An introduction to variable and feature selection. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:1157?1182, 2003. [17] G. Karypis and V. Kumar. A fast and high quality multilevel scheme for partitioning irregular graphs. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing 20, 1:359392, 1999. [18] G. Chen, M. Iwen, S. Chin, and M. Maggioni. A fast multiscale framework for data in high-dimensions: Measure estimation, anomaly detection, and compressive measurements. In VCIP, 2012 IEEE, 2012. [19] Ingrid Daubechies. Ten Lectures on Wavelets (CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics). SIAM: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1992. [20] J. Sethuraman. A constructive denition of Dirichlet priors. Statistica Sinica, 4:639?650, 1994. [21] Didier Chauveau and Jean Diebolt. An automated stopping rule for mcmc convergence assessment. Computational Statistics, 14:419?442, 1998. [22] R. Arden, R. S. Chavez, R. Grazioplene, and R. E. Jung. Neuroimaging creativity: a psychometric view. Behavioural brain research, 214:143?156, 2010. ? Chavez, and R.J. ? Jung, R. Grazioplene, A. Caprihan, R.S. ? [23] R.E. Haier. White matter integrity, creativity, and psychopathology: Disentangling constructs with diffusion tensor imaging. PloS one, 5(3):e9818, 2010. ? Gray, J.A. ? Bogovic, J.T. ? Vogelstein, B.A. ? Landman, J? L. Prince, and R.J. ? Vogelstein. Magnetic [24] W.R. resonance connectome automated pipeline: an overview. IEEE pulse, 3(2):42?8, March 2010. [25] Susumu Mori and Jiangyang Zhang. Principles of diffusion tensor imaging and its applications to basic neuroscience research. Neuron, 51(5):527?39, September 2006. [26] ABIDE. http://fcon 1000.projects.nitrc.org/indi/abide/. ? Vogelstein, and M.P. ? Milham. Towards Automated Analysis of Connectomes: The Config[27] S. Sikka, J.T. urable Pipeline for the Analysis of Connectomes (C-PAC). Neuroinformatics, 2012. ? [28] Q-H. Zou, C-Z. Zhu, Y. Yang, X-N. Zuo, X-Y. Long, Q-J. Cao, Y-FWang, and Y-F. Zang. An improved approach to detection of amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation (ALFF) for resting-state fMRI: fractional ALFF. Journal of neuroscience methods, 172(1):137?141, July 2008. [29] J. D. Power, K. A. Barnes, C. J. Stone, and R. A. Olshen. Spurious but systematic correlations in functional connectivity MRI networks arise from subject motion. Neuroimage, 59:2142?2154, 2012. [30] Leo Breiman. Statistical Modeling : The Two Cultures. Statistical Science, 16(3):199?231, 2001. 9
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On the Sample Complexity of Subspace Learning Guillermo D. Canas Massachussetss Institute of Technology [email protected] Alessandro Rudi Robotics Brain and Cognitive Science Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia [email protected] Lorenzo Rosasco Universita? degli Studi di Genova, LCSL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology & Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia [email protected] Abstract A large number of algorithms in machine learning, from principal component analysis (PCA), and its non-linear (kernel) extensions, to more recent spectral embedding and support estimation methods, rely on estimating a linear subspace from samples. In this paper we introduce a general formulation of this problem and derive novel learning error estimates. Our results rely on natural assumptions on the spectral properties of the covariance operator associated to the data distribution, and hold for a wide class of metrics between subspaces. As special cases, we discuss sharp error estimates for the reconstruction properties of PCA and spectral support estimation. Key to our analysis is an operator theoretic approach that has broad applicability to spectral learning methods. 1 Introduction The subspace learning problem is that of finding the smallest linear space supporting data drawn from an unknown distribution. It is a classical problem in machine learning and statistics, with several established algorithms addressing it, most notably PCA and kernel PCA [12, 18]. It is also at the core of a number of spectral methods for data analysis, including spectral embedding methods, from classical multidimensional scaling (MDS) [7, 26], to more recent manifold embedding methods [22, 16, 2], and spectral methods for support estimation [9]. Therefore knowledge of the speed of convergence of the subspace learning problem, with respect to the sample size, and the algorithms? parameters, is of considerable practical importance. Given a measure ? from which independent samples are drawn, we aim to estimate the smallest subspace S? that contains the support of ?. In some cases, the support may lie on, or close to, a subspace of lower dimension than the embedding space, and it may be of interest to learn such a subspace S? in order to replace the original samples by their local encoding with respect to S? . While traditional methods, such as PCA and MDS, perform such subspace estimation in the data?s original space, other, more recent manifold learning methods, such as isomap [22], Hessian eigenmaps [10], maximum-variance unfolding [24, 25, 21], locally-linear embedding [16, 17], and Laplacian eigenmaps [2] (but also kernel PCA [18]), begin by embedding the data in a feature space, in which subspace estimation is carried out. Indeed, as pointed out in [11, 4, 3], the algorithms in this family have a common structure. They embed the data in a suitable Hilbert space H, and compute a linear subspace that best approximates the embedded data. The local coordinates in this subspace then become the new representation space. Similar spectral techniques may also be used to estimate the support of the data itself, as discussed in [9]. 1 While the subspace estimates are derived from the available samples only, or their embedding, the learning problem is concerned with the quality of the computed subspace as an estimate of S? (the true span of the support of ?). In particular, it may be of interest to understand the quality of these estimates, as a function of the algorithm?s parameters (typically the dimensionality of the estimated subspace). We begin by defining the subspace learning problem (Sec. 2), in a sufficiently general way to encompass a number of well-known problems as special cases (Sec. 4). Our main technical contribution is a general learning rate for the subspace learning problem, which is then particularized to common instances of this problem (Sec. 3). Our proofs use novel tools from linear operator theory to obtain learning rates for the subspace learning problem which are significantly sharper than existing ones, under typical assumptions, but also cover a wider range of performance metrics. A full sketch of the main proofs is given in Section 7, including a brief description of some of the novel tools developed. We conclude with experimental evidence, and discussion (Sec. 5 and 6). 2 Problem definition and notation Given a measure ? with support M in the unit ball of a separable Hilbert space H, we consider in this work the problem of estimating, from n i.i.d. samples Xn = {xi }1?i?n , the smallest linear subspace S? := span(M ) that contains M . The quality of an estimate S? of S? , for a given metric (or error criterion) d, is characterized in terms of probabilistic bounds of the form h i ? ? ?(?, n, ?) ? 1 ? ?, 0 < ? ? 1. P d(S? , S) (1) for some function ? of the problem?s parameters. We derive in the sequel high probability bounds of the above form. In the remainder the metric projection operator onto a subspace S is denoted by PS , where PS2 = We denote by k ? kH the norm induced by the PS? = PS (every P is idempotent and self-adjoint). p p dot product < ?, ? >H in H, and by kAkp := Tr(|A|p ) the p-Schatten, or p-class norm of a linear bounded operator A [15, p. 84]. 2.1 Subspace estimates Letting C := Ex?? x ? x be the (uncentered) covariance operator associated to ?, it is easy to show Pn that S? = Ran C. Similarly, given the empirical covariance Cn := n1 i=1 x ? x, we define the empirical subspace estimate S?n := span(Xn ) = Ran Cn (note that the closure is not needed in this case because S?n is finite-dimensional). We also define the k-truncated (kernel) PCA subspace estimate S?nk := Ran Cnk , where Cnk is obtained from Cn by keeping only its k top eigenvalues. Note that, since the PCA estimate S?nk is spanned by the top k 0 eigenvectors of Cn , then clearly S?nk ? S?nk for k < k 0 , and therefore {S?nk }nk=1 is a nested family of subspaces (all of which are contained in S? ). As discussed in Section 4.1, since kernel-PCA reduces to regular PCA in a feature space [18] (and can be computed with knowledge of the kernel alone), the following discussion applies equally to kernel-PCA estimates, with the understanding that, in that case, S? is the span of the support of ? in the feature space. 2.2 Performance criteria In order for a bound of the form of Equation (1) to be meaningful, a choice of performance criteria d must be made. We define the distance d?,p (U, V ) := k(PU ? PV )C ? kp (2) between subspaces U, V , which is a metric over the space of subspaces contained in S? , for 0 ? ? ? 21 and 1 ? p ? ?. Note that d?,p depends on ? through C but, in the interest of clarity, 2 this dependence is omitted in the notation. While of interest in its own right, it is also possible to express important performance criteria as particular cases of d?,p . In particular, the so-called reconstruction error [13]: ? := Ex?? kPS (x) ? P ? (x)k2 dR (S? , S) ? S H is dR (S? , ?) = d1/2,2 (S? , ?)2 . Note that dR is a natural criterion because a k-truncated PCA estimate minimizes a suitable error ? vanishes whenever S? contains S? and, dR over all subspaces of dimension k. Clearly, dR (S? , S) k n ? because the family {Sn }k=1 of PCA estimates is nested, then dR (S? , S?nk ) is non-increasing with k. As shown in [13], a number of unsupervised learning algorithms, including (kernel) PCA, k-means, k-flats, sparse coding, and non-negative matrix factorization, can be written as a minimization of dR over an algorithm-specific class of sets (e.g. over the set of linear subspaces of a fixed dimension in the case of PCA). 3 Summary of results Our main technical contribution is a bound of the form of Eq. (1), for the k-truncated PCA estimate S?nk (with the empirical estimate S?n := S?nn being a particular case), whose proof is postponed to Sec. 7. We begin by bounding the distance d?,p between S? and the k-truncated PCA estimate S?nk , given a known covariance C. Theorem 3.1. Let {xi }1?i?n be drawn i.i.d. according to a probability measure ? supported on the unit ball of a separable Hilbert space H, with covariance C. Assuming n > 3, 0 < ? < 1, 0 ? ? ? 12 , 1 ? p ? ?, the following holds for each k ? {1, . . . , n}: h i (3) P d?,p (S? , S?nk ) ? 3t? C ? (C + tI)?? p ? 1 ? ? where t = max{?k , n9 log n? }, and ?k is the k-th top eigenvalue of C. We say that C has eigenvalue decay rate of order r if there are constants q, Q > 0 such that qj ?r ? ?j ? Qj ?r , where ?j are the (decreasingly ordered) eigenvalues of C, and r > 1. From Equation (2) it is clear that, in order for the subspace learning problem to be well-defined, it must be kC ? kp < ?, or alternatively: ?p > 1/r. Note that this condition is always met for p = ?, and also holds in the reconstruction error case (? = 1/2, p = 2), for any decay rate r > 1. Knowledge of an eigenvalue decay rate can be incorporated into Theorem 3.1 to obtain explicit learning rates, as follows. Theorem 3.2 (Polynomial eigenvalue decay). Let C have eigenvalue decay rate of order r. Under the assumptions of Theorem 3.1, it is, with probability 1 ? ? ( 1 Q0 k ?r?+ p if k < kn? (polynomial decay) k ? d?,p (S? , Sn ) ? (4) 1 0 ? ?r?+ p ? Q kn if k ? kn (plateau)  1/r 1/p qn , and Q0 = 3 Q1/r ?(?p ? 1/r)?(1 + 1/r)/?(1/r) where it is kn? = 9 log(n/?) . The above theorem guarantees a drop in d?,p with increasing k, at a rate of k ?r?+1/p , up to k = kn? , after which the bound remains constant. The estimated plateau threshold k ? is thus the value of truncation past which the upper bound does not improve. Note that, as described in Section 5, this performance drop and plateau behavior is observed in practice. The proofs of Theorems 3.1 and 3.2 rely on recent non-commutative Bernstein-type inequalities on operators [5, 23], and a novel analytical decomposition. Note that classical Bernstein inequalities in Hilbert spaces (e.g. [14]) could also be used instead of [23]. However, while this approach would simplify the analysis, it produces looser bounds, as described in Section 7. If we consider an algorithm that produces, for each set of n samples, an estimate S?nk with k ? kn? then, by plugging the definition of kn? into Eq. 4, we obtain an upper bound on d?,p as a function of n. 3 Corollary 3.3. Let C have eigenvalue decay rate of order r, and Q0 , kn? be as in Theorem 3.2. Let S?n? be a truncated subspace estimate S?nk with k ? kn? . It is, with probability 1 ? ?, 1  ?? rp 9 (log n ? log ?) ? 0 ? d?,p (S? , Sn ) ? Q qn Remark 3.4. Note that, by setting k = n, the above corollary also provides guarantees on the rate of convergence of the empirical estimate Sn = span(Xn ) to S? , of order 1 !  ?? rp log n ? log ? d?,p (S? , Sn ) = O . n Corollary 4.1 and remark 3.4 are valid for all n such that kn? ? n (or equivalently such that nr?1 (log n ? log ?) ? q/9). Note that, because ? is supported on the unit ball, its covariance has eigenvalues no greater than one, and therefore it must be q < 1. It thus suffices to require that n > 3 to ensure the condition kn? ? n to hold. 4 Applications of subspace learning We describe next some of the main uses of subspace learning in the literature. 4.1 Kernel PCA and embedding methods One of the main applications of subspace learning is in reducing the dimensionality of the input. In particular, one may find nested subspaces of dimension 1 ? k ? n that minimize the distances from the original to the projected samples. This procedure is known as the Karhunen-Lo`eve, PCA, or Hotelling transform [12], and has been generalized to Reproducing-Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) [18]. In particular, the above procedure amounts to computing an eigen-decomposition of the empirical covariance (Sec. 2.1): n X ?i ui ? ui , Cn = i=1 where the k-th subspace estimate is S?nk := Ran Cnk = span{ui : 1 ? i ? k}. Note that, in the general case of kernel PCA, we assume the samples {xi }1?i?n to be in some RKHS H, which are obtained from the observed variables (z1 , . . . , zn ) ? Z n , for some space Z, through an embedding xi := ?(zi ). Typically, due to the very high dimensionality of H, we may only have indirect information about ? in the form a kernel function K : Z ? Z ? R: a symmetric, positive definite function satisfying K(z, w) = h?(z), ?(w)iH [20] (for technical reasons, we also assume K to be continuous). Note that every such K has a unique associated RKHS, and viceversa [20, p. 120?121], whereas, given K, the embedding ? is only unique up to an inner product-preserving transformation. Given a point z ? Z, we can make use of K to compute the coordinates of the projection of its embedding ?(z) onto S?nk ? H by means of a simple k-truncated eigen-decomposition of Kn . It is easy to see that the k-truncated kernel PCA subspace S?nk minimizes the empirical reconstruction ? among all subspaces S? of dimension k. Indeed, it is error dR (S?n , S), ? = Ex???kx ? P ? (x)k2H = Ex??? (I ? P ? )x, (I ? P ? )x dR (S?n , S) S S S H (5) = Ex??? I ? PS? , x ? x = I ? PS? , Cn , HS HS where h?, ?iHS is the Hilbert-Schmidt inner product, from which it is easy to see that the kdimensional subspace minimizing Equation 5 (alternatively maximizing < PS? , Cn >) is spanned by the k-top eigenvectors of Cn . ? error of the Since we are interested in the expected dR (S? , S?nk ) (rather than the empirical dR (S?n , S)) kernel PCA estimate, we may obtain a learning rate for Equation 5 by particularizing Theorem 3.2 4 to the reconstruction error, for all k (Theorem 3.2), and for k ? k ? with a suitable choice of k ? (Corollary 4.1). In particular, recalling that dR (S? , ?) = d?,p (S? , ?)2 with ? = 1/2 and p = 2, and choosing a value of k ? kn? that minimizes the bound of Theorem 3.2, we obtain the following result. Corollary 4.1 (Performance of PCA / Reconstruction error). Let C have eigenvalue decay rate of order r, and S?n? be as in Corollary 3.3. Then it holds, with probability 1 ? ?,  1?1/r ! log n ? log ? ? dR (S? , S?n ) = O n where the dependence on ? is hidden in the Landau symbol. 4.2 Support estimation The problem of support estimation consists in recovering the support M of a distribution ? on a metric space Z from identical and independent samples Zn = (zi )1?i?n . We briefly recall a recently proposed approach to support estimation based on subspace learning [9], and discuss how our results specialize to this setting, producing a qualitative improvement to theirs. Given a suitable reproducing kernel K on Z (with associated feature map ?), the support M can be characterized in terms of the subspace S? = span ?(M ) ? H [9]. More precisely, letting dV (x) = kx ? PV xkH be the point-subspace distance to a subspace V , it can be shown (see [9]) that, if the kernel separates 1 M , then it is M = {z ? Z | dS? (?(z)) = 0}. ? = {z ? Z | d ? (?(z)) ? ? } of M , where S? = span ?(Zn ), This suggests an empirical estimate M S ? ) = 0 in the Hausdorff and ? > 0. With this choice, almost sure convergence limn?? dH (M, M distance [1] is related to the convergence of S? to S? [9]. More precisely, if the eigenfunctions of the covariance operator C = Ez?? [?(z) ? ?(z)] are uniformly bounded, then it suffices for Hausdorff convergence to bound from above d r?1 ,? (where r > 1 is the eigenvalue decay rate of C). The 2r following results specializes Corollary 3.3 to this setting. Corollary 4.2 (Performance of set learning). If 0 ? ? ? 21 , then it holds, with probability 1 ? ?,  ?  log n ? log ? ? ? d?,? (S? , Sn ) = O n where the constant in the Landau symbol depends on ?. 1.0 Figure 1: The figure shows the experimental behavior of the distance d?,? (S?k , S? ) between the empirical and the actual support subspaces, with respect to the regularization parameter. The setting is the one of section 5. Here the actual subspace is analytically computed, while the empirical one is computed on a dataset with n = 1000 and 32bit floating point precision. Note the numerical instability as k tends to 1000. 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 10 10 1 10 2 k 10 3  r?1  above yields a high probability bound of order O n? 2r (up to logarithmic   r?1 factors), which is considerably sharper than the bound O n? 2(3r?1) found in [8] (Theorem 7). Letting ? = r?1 2r 1 A kernel is said to separate M if its associated feature map ? satisfies ??1 (span ?(M )) = M (e.g. the Abel kernel is separating). 5 Note that these are upper bounds for the best possible choice of k (which minimizes the bound). While the optima of both bounds vanish with n ? ?, their behavior is qualitatively different. In particular, the bound of [8] is U-shaped, and diverges for k = n, while ours is L-shaped (no tradeoff), and thus also convergent for k = n. Therefore, when compared with [8], our results suggest that no regularization is required from a statistical point of view though, as clarified in the following remark, it may be needed for purposes of numerical stability. Remark 4.3. While, as proven in Corollary 4.2, regularization is not needed from a statistical perspective, it can play a role in ensuring numerical stability in practice. Indeed, in order to find ? , we compute d ? (?(z)) with z ? Z. Using the reproducing property of K, it can be shown that, M S D E ? k )? tz where (tz )i = K(z, zi ), K ? n is the Gram for z ? Z, it is d ?k (?(z)) = K(z, z) ? tz , (K S n ? n )ij = K(zi , zj ), K ? k is the rank-k approximation of K ? n , and (K ? k )? is the pseudo-inverse matrix (K n n k ? n . The computation of M ? therefore requires a matrix inversion, which is prone to instability for of K high condition numbers. Figure 1 shows the behavior of the error that results from replacing S? by its k-truncated approximation S?k . For large values of k, the small eigenvalues of S? are used in the inversion, leading to numerical instability. 5 Experiments Figure 2: The spectrum of the empirical covariance (left), and the expected distance from a random sample to the empirical k-truncated kernel-PCA subspace estimate (right), as a function of k (n = 1000, 1000 trials shown in a boxplot). Our predicted plateau threshold kn? (Theorem 3.2) is a good estimate of the value k past which the distance stabilizes. In order to validate our analysis empirically, we consider the following experiment. Let ? be a uniform one-dimensional distribution in the unit interval. We embed ? into a reproducing-kernel Hilbert space H using the exponential of the `1 distance (k(u, v) = exp{?ku ? vk1 }) as kernel. Given n samples drawn from ?, we compute its empirical covariance in H (whose spectrum is plotted in Figure 2 (left)), and truncate its eigen-decomposition to obtain a subspace estimate S?nk , as described in Section 2.1. Figure 2 (right) is a box plot of reconstruction error dR (S? , S?nk ) associated with the k-truncated kernel-PCA estimate S?nk (the expected distance in H of samples to S?nk ), with n = 1000 and varying k. While dR is computed analytically in this example, and S? is fixed, the estimate S?nk is a random variable, and hence the variability in the graph. Notice from the figure that, as pointed out in [6] and discussed in Section 6, the reconstruction error dR (S? , S?nk ) is always a non-increasing function of k, 0 due to the fact that the kernel-PCA estimates are nested: S?nk ? S?nk for k < k 0 (see Section 2.1). The graph is highly concentrated around a curve with a steep intial drop, until reaching some sufficiently high k, past which the reconstruction (pseudo) distance becomes stable, and does not vanish. In our experiments, this behavior is typical for the reconstruction distance and high-dimensional problems. Due to the simple form of this example, we are able to compute analytically the spectrum of the true covariance C. In this case, the eigenvalues of C decay as 2?/((k?)2 + ? 2 ), with k ? N, and therefore they have a polynomial decay rate r = 2 (see Section 3). Given the known spectrum decay rate, we can estimate the plateau threshold k = kn? in the bound of Theorem 3.2, which can be seen 6 to be a good approximation of the observed start of a plateau in dR (S? , S?nk ) (Figure 2, right). Notice that our bound for this case (Corollary 4.1) similarly predicts a steep performance drop until the threshold k = kn? (indicated in the figure by the vertical blue line), and a plateau afterwards. 6 Discussion Figure 3 shows a comparison of our learning rates with existing rates in the literature [6, 19]. The plot shows the polynomial decay rate c of the high probability bound dR (S? , S?nk ) = O(n?c ), as a function of the eigenvalue decay rate r of the covariance C, computed at the best value kn? (which minimizes the bound). 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 4 6 8 r 10 Figure 3: Known upper bounds for the polynomial decay rate c (for the best choice of k), for the expected distance from a random sample to the empirical k-truncated kernel-PCA estimate, as a function of the covariance eigenvalue decay rate (higher is better). Our bound (purple line), consistently outperforms previous ones [19] (black line). The top (dashed) line [6], has significantly stronger assumptions, and is only included for completeness. The learning rate exponent c, under a polynomial eigenvalue decay assumption of the data covaris(r?1) r?1 ance C, is c = r?s+sr for [6] and c = 2r?1 for [19], where s is related to the fourth moment. Note that, among the two (purple and black) that operate under the same assumptions, our bound (purple line) is the best by a wide margin. The top, best performing, dashed line [6] is obtained for the best possible fourth-order moment constraint s = 2r, and is therefore not a fair comparison. However, it is worth noting that our bounds perform almost as well as the most restrictive one, even when we do not include any fourth-order moment constraints. Choice of truncation parameter k. Since, as pointed out in Section 2.1, the subspace estimates S?nk 0 are nested for increasing k (i.e. S?nk ? S?nk for k < k 0 ), the distance d?,p (S? , S?nk ), and in particular the reconstruction error dR (S? , S?nk ), is a non-increasing function of k. As has been previously discussed [6], this suggests that there is no tradeoff in the choice of k. Indeed, the fact that the estimates S?nk become increasing close to S? as k increases indicates that, when minimizing d?,p (S? , S?nk ), the best choice is the highest: k = n. Interestingly, however, both in practice (Section 5), and in theory (Section 3), we observe that a typical behavior for the subspace learning problem in high dimensions (e.g. kernel PCA) is that there is a certain value of k = kn? , past which performance plateaus. For problems such as spectral embedding methods [22, 10, 25], in which a degree of dimensionality reduction is desirable, producing an estimate S?nk where k is close to the plateau threshold may be a natural parameter choice: it leads to an estimate of the lowest dimension (k = kn? ), whose distance to the true S? is almost as low as the best-performing one (k = n). 7 7 Sketch of the proofs Due to the novelty of the the techniques employed, and in order to clarify how they may be used in other contexts, we provide here a proof of our main theoretical result, Theorem 3.1, with some details omitted in the interest of conciseness. For each ? > 0, we denote by r? (x) := 1{x > ?} the step function with a cut-off at ?. Given an empirical covariance operator Cn , we will consider the truncated version r? (Cn ) where, in this notation, r? is applied to the eigenvalues of Cn , that is, r? (Cn ) has the same eigen-structure as Cn , but its eigenvalues that are less or equal to ? are clamped to zero. In order to prove the bound of Equation (3), we begin by proving a more general upper bound of d?,p (S? , S?nk ), which is split into a random (A), and a deterministic part (B, C). The bound holds for all values of a free parameter t > 0, which is then constrained and optimized in order to find the (close to) tightest version of the bound. Lemma 7.1. Let t > 0, 0 ? ? ? 1/2, and ? = ?k (C) be the k-th top eigenvalue of C, it is, 1 1 ? d?,p (S? , S?nk ) ? k(C + tI) 2 (Cn + tI)? 2 k2? ? kC ? (C + tI)?? kp ? ? {3/2(? + t)} {z } | {z } | {z } | A B (6) C Note that the right-hand side of Equation (6) is the product of three terms, the left of which (A) involves the empirical covariance operator Cn , which is a random variable, and the right two (B, C) are entirely deterministic. While the term B has already been reduced to the known quantities t, ?, ?, the remaining terms are bound next. We bound the random term A in the next Lemma, whose proof makes use of recent concentration results [23]. Lemma 7.2 (Term A). Let 0 ? ? ? 1/2, for each n9 log n? ? t ? kCk? , with probability 1 ? ? it is 1 1 ? (2/3)? ? k(C + tI) 2 (Cn + tI)? 2 k2? ? ?2 Lemma 7.3 (Term C). Let C be a symmetric, bounded, positive semidefinite linear operator on H. If ?k (C) ? f (k) for k ? N, where f is a decreasing function then, for all t > 0 and ? ? 0, it holds ? C (C + tI)?? ? inf gu? t?u? (7) p 0?u?1 where gu? = f (1)u?p + and ?p > ?, then it holds R? 1 1/p f (x)u?p dx . Furthermore, if f (k) = gk ?1/? , with 0 < ? < 1 ? C (C + tI)?? ? Qt??/p p 1/p where Q = (g ? ?(?p ? ?)?(1 + ?)/?(?)) (8) . The combination of Lemmas 7.1 and 7.2 leads to the main theorem 3.1, which is a probabilistic bound, holding for every k ? {1, . . . , n}, with a deterministic term kC ? (C + tI)?? kp that depends on knowledge of the covariance C. In cases in which some knowledge of the decay rate of C is available, Lemma 7.3 can be applied to obtain Theorem 3.2 and Corollary 3.3. Finally, Corollary 4.1 is simply a particular case for the reconstruction error dR (S? , ?) = d?,p (S? , ?)2 , with ? = 1/2, p = 2. As noted in Section 3, looser bounds would be obtained if classical Bernstein inequalities in Hilbert spaces [14] were used instead. In particular, Lemma 7.2 would result in a range for t of qn?r/(r+1) ? t ? kCk? , implying k ? = O(n1/(r+1) ) rather than O(n1/r ), and thus Theorem 3.2 would become (for k ? k ? ) d?,p (S? , Snk ) = O(n??r/(r+1)+1/(p(r+1)) ) (compared with the sharper O(n??+1/rp ) of Theorem 3.2). For instance, for p = 2, ? = 1/2, and a decay rate r = 2 (as in the example of Section 5), it would be: d1/2,2 (S? , Sn ) = O(n?1/4 ) using Theorem 3.2, and d1/2,2 (S? , Sn ) = O(n?1/6 ) using classical Bernstein inequalities. Acknowledgments L. R. acknowledges the financial support of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research FIRB project RBFR12M3AC. 8 References [1] G. Beer. Topologies on Closed and Closed Convex Sets. Springer, 1993. [2] M. Belkin and P. Niyogi. Laplacian eigenmaps for dimensionality reduction and data representation. Neural computation, 15(6):1373?1396, 2003. [3] Y. Bengio, O. Delalleau, N.L. Roux, J.F. Paiement, P. Vincent, and M. Ouimet. Learning eigenfunctions links spectral embedding and kernel pca. Neural Computation, 16(10):2197?2219, 2004. [4] Y. Bengio, J.F. Paiement, and al. Out-of-sample extensions for lle, isomap, mds, eigenmaps, and spectral clustering. Advances in neural information processing systems, 16:177?184, 2004. [5] S. Bernstein. The Theory of Probabilities. Gastehizdat Publishing House, Moscow, 1946. [6] G. Blanchard, O. Bousquet, and L. Zwald. Statistical properties of kernel principal component analysis. Machine Learning, 66(2):259?294, 2007. [7] I. Borg and P.J.F. Groenen. Modern multidimensional scaling: Theory and applications. Springer, 2005. [8] Ernesto De Vito, Lorenzo Rosasco, and al. Learning sets with separating kernels. arXiv:1204.3573, 2012. [9] Ernesto De Vito, Lorenzo Rosasco, and Alessandro Toigo. Spectral regularization for support estimation. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, NIPS Foundation, pages 1?9, 2010. [10] D.L. Donoho and C. Grimes. Hessian eigenmaps: Locally linear embedding techniques for highdimensional data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(10):5591?5596, 2003. [11] J. Ham, D.D. Lee, S. Mika, and B. Sch?olkopf. A kernel view of the dimensionality reduction of manifolds. In Proceedings of the twenty-first international conference on Machine learning, page 47. ACM, 2004. [12] I. Jolliffe. Principal component analysis. Wiley Online Library, 2005. [13] Andreas Maurer and Massimiliano Pontil. K?dimensional coding schemes in hilbert spaces. 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Least Informative Dimensions Fabian H. Sinz Department for Neuroethology Eberhard Karls University T?ubingen [email protected] Anna St?ockl Department for Functional Zoology Lund University, Sweden [email protected] Jan Grewe Department for Neuroethology Eberhard Karls University T?ubingen [email protected] Jan Benda Department for Neuroethology Eberhard Karls University T?ubingen [email protected] Abstract We present a novel non-parametric method for finding a subspace of stimulus features that contains all information about the response of a system. Our method generalizes similar approaches to this problem such as spike triggered average, spike triggered covariance, or maximally informative dimensions. Instead of maximizing the mutual information between features and responses directly, we use integral probability metrics in kernel Hilbert spaces to minimize the information between uninformative features and the combination of informative features and responses. Since estimators of these metrics access the data via kernels, are easy to compute, and exhibit good theoretical convergence properties, our method can easily be generalized to populations of neurons or spike patterns. By using a particular expansion of the mutual information, we can show that the informative features must contain all information if we can make the uninformative features independent of the rest. 1 Introduction An important aspect of deciphering the neural code is to determine those stimulus features populations of sensory neurons are most sensitive to. Approaches to that problem include white noise analysis [2, 14], in particular spike-triggered average [4] or spike-triggered covariance [3, 19], canonical correlation analysis or population receptive fields [12], generalized linear models [18, 15], or maximally informative dimensions [22]. All these techniques have in common that they optimize a statistical dependency measure between stimuli and spike responses over the choice of a linear subspace. The particular algorithms differ in the dimensionality of the subspace they extract (one- vs. multi-dimensional), the statistical measure they use (correlation, likelihood, relative entropy), and whether an extension to population responses is feasible or not. While spike-triggered average uses correlation and is restricted to a single subspace, spike-triggered covariance and canonical correlation analysis can already extract multi-dimensional subspaces but are still restricted to second-order statistics. Maximally informative dimensions is the only technique of the above that can extract multiple dimensions that are informative also with respect to higher-order statistics. However, an extension to spike patterns or population responses is not straightforward because of the curse of dimensionality. Here we approach the problem from a different perspective and propose an algorithm that can extract a multi-dimensional subspace containing all relevant information about the neural responses Y in terms of Shannon?s mutual information (if such a subspace exists). Our method does not commit to a particular parametric model, and can easily be extended to spike patterns or population responses. 1 In general, the problem of finding the most informative subspace of the stimuli X about the responses Y can be described as finding an orthogonal matrix Q (a basis for Rn ) that separates X > into informative and non-informative features (U , V ) = QX. Since Q is orthogonal, the mutual information I [X : Y ] between X and Y can be decomposed as [5]   p (U , V , Y ) I [Y : X] = I [Y : U , V ] = EX,Y log p (U , V ) p (Y )   p (Y , V | U ) = I [Y : U ] + EY ,V log p (Y | U ) p (V | U ) = I [Y : U ] + EU [I [Y | U : V | U ]] . (1) Since the two terms on the right hand side of equation (1) are always positive and sum up to the mutual information between Y and X, two ways to obtain maximally informative features U about Y would be to either maximize I [Y : U ] or to minimize EU [I [Y |U : V |U ]] via the choice of Q. The first possibility is along the lines of maximally informative dimensions [22] and involves direct estimation of the mutual information. The second possibility which avoids direct estimation has been proposed by Fukumizu and colleagues [5, 6] (we discuss both in Section 3). Here, we explore a third possibility, which trades practical advantages against a slightly more restrictive objective. The idea is to obtain maximally informative features U by making V as independent as possible from the combination of U and Y . For this reason, we name our approach least informative dimensions (LID). Formally, least informative dimensions tries to minimize the mutual information between the pair Y , U and V . Using the chain rule for multi information we can write it as (see supplementary material) I [Y , U : V ] = I [Y : X] + I [U : V ] ? I [Y : U ] . (2) This means that minimizing I [Y , U : V ] is equivalent to maximizing I [Y : U ] while simultaneously minimizing I [U : V ]. Note that I [Y , U : V ] = 0 implies I [U : V ] = 0. Therefore, if Q can be chosen such that I [Y , U : V ] = 0 equation (2) reduces to I [Y : X] = I [Y : U ], pushing all information about Y into U . Since each new choice of Q requires the estimation of the mutual information between (potentially high-dimensional) variables, direct optimization is hard or unfeasible. For this reason, we resort to another dependency measure which is easier to estimate but shares its minimum with mutual information, that is, it is zero if and only if the mutual information is zero. The objective is to choose Q such that (Y , U ) and V are independent in that dependency measure. If we can find such a Q, then we know that I [Y , U : V ] is zero as well, which means that U are the most informative features in terms of the Shannon mutual information. This will allow us to obtain maximally informative features without ever having to estimate a mutual information. The easier estimation procedure comes at the cost of only being able to link the alternative dependency measure to the mutual information if both of them are zero. If there is no Q that achieves this, we will still get informative features in the alternative measure, but it is not clear how informative they are in terms of mutual information. 2 Least informative dimensions This section describes how to efficiently find a Q such that I [Y , U : V ] = 0 (if such a Q exists). > Unless noted otherwise, (U , V ) = QX where U denotes the informative and V the uninformative features. The mutual information is a special case of the relative entropy   log p (X) DKL [p || q] = EX?p log q (X) between two distribution p and q. While being linked to the rich theoretical background of Shannon information theory, the relative entropy is known to be hard to estimate [25]. Alternatives to relative entropy of increasing practical interest are the integral probability metrics (IPM), defined as [25, 17] ?F (X : Z) = sup |EX [f (X)] ? EZ [f (Z)]| . (3) f ?F Intuitively, the metric in equation (3) searches for a function f , which can detect a difference in the distributions of two random variables X and Z. If no such witness function can be found, the 2 distributions must be equal. If F is chosen to be a sufficiently rich reproducing kernel Hilbert space H [21], then the supremum in equation (3) can be computed explicitly and the divergence can be computed in closed form [7]. This particular type of IPM is called maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) [9, 7, 10]. A kernel k : X ? X ? R is a symmetric function such that the matrix Kij = k (xi , xj ) is positive (semi)-definite for every selection of points x1 , ..., xm ? X [21]. In that case, the functions k (?, x) are elements of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of functions H. This space is endowed with a dot product h?, ?iH with the so called reproducing property hk (?, x) , f iH = f (x) for f ? H. In particular, hk (?, x) , k (?, x0 )iH = k (x, x0 ). When setting F in equation (3) to be the unit ball in H, then the IPM can be computed in closed form as the norm of the difference between the mean functions in H [7, 10, 8, 26]: ?H (X : Z) = = kEX [k (?, X)] ? EZ [k (?, Z)]kH     12 EX,X 0 k X, X 0 ? 2EX,Z [k (X, Z)] + EZ,Z 0 k Z, Z 0 , (4) where the first equality is derived in [7], and second equality uses the bi-linearity of the dot product and the reproducing property of k. Furthermore, (X, X 0 ) ? PX ? PX and (Z, Z 0 ) ? PZ ? PZ are two independent random variables drawn from the marginal distributions of X and Z, respectively. The function EX [k (?, X)] is an embedding of the distribution of X into the RKHS H via X 7? EX [k (?, X)]. If this map is injective, that is, if it uniquely represents the probability distribution of X, then equation (4) is zero if and only if the probability distributions of X and X 0 are the same. Kernels with  that property  are called characteristic in analogy to the characteristic function ?X (t) 7? EX exp it> X [26, 27]. This means that for characteristic kernels MMD is zero exactly if the relative entropy DKL [pkq] is zero as well. Since the mutual information is the relative entropy between the joint distribution and the products of the marginals, we can use MMD to search for a Q such that ?H (PY ,U ,V : PY ,U ? PV ) is zero1 , which then implies that I [Y , U : V ] = 0 as well. The finite sample version of (4) is simply given by replacing the expectations with the empirical mean (and possibly some bias correction) [7, 10, 8]. The estimation of ?H therefore only involves summation over three kernel matrices and can be done in a few lines of code. Unlike for the relative entropy, the empirical estimation of MMD is therefore much more feasible. Further? more, the residual error of the empirical estimator can be shown to decrease on the order of 1/ m where m is the number of data points [25]. Note in particular, that this rate does not depend on the dimensionality of the data. Objective function The objective function for our optimization problem now has the following form: We transform input examples  xi into features ui and v i via (ui , v i ) = Qxi . Then we use a kernel k (ui , v i , y i ) , uj , v j , y j to compute and minimize MMD with respect to the choice of Q. In order to do that efficiently, a few adaptations are required. First, without loss of generality, we minimize the squared MMD instead of MMD itself     2 ?H (Z 1 , Z 2 ) = EZ 1 ,Z 01 k Z 1 , Z 01 ? 2EZ 1 ,Z 2 [k (Z 1 , Z 2 )] + EZ 2 ,Z 02 k Z 2 , Z 02 , (5) where Z 1 = (Y , U , V ) ? PY ,U ,V and Z 2 = (Y , U , V ) ? PY ,U ? PV . Second, in order to get samples from PY ,U ? PV ,we assume that our kernel takes the form  k (ui , v i , y i ) , uj , v j , y j = k1 (ui , y i ) , uj , y j ? k2 (v i , v j ). For this special case, one can incorporate the independence assumption between U , Y and V directly by using the fact that for independent random variables, the expectation of the product is equal to the product of expectations, that is,      E k1 (ui , y i ) , uj , y j ? k2 (v i , v j ) = E k1 (ui , y i ) , uj , y j E [k2 (v i , v j )] . This special case of MMD is equivalent to the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) [9, 23] and can be computed as 1 2 ??hs (6) = 2 tr (K1 HK2 H) , (m ? 1) m where K1 and K2 denote the matrices of pairwise kernel values between the data sets {(ui , y i )}i=1 m and {v i }i=1 , respectively, and Hij = ?ij ? m?1 . 1 With some abuse of notation, we wrote MMD as a function of the probability measures. 3 Note, however, that one could in principle also optimize (5) for a non-factorizing kernel by simply shuffling the (ui , y i ) and v i across examples. We can also use shuffling to assess whether the 2 optimal value ??hs found during the optimization is significantly different from zero by comparing 2 the value to a null distribution over ??hs obtained from datasets where the (ui , y i ) and v i have been permuted across examples. Minimization procedure and gradients For optimizing (6) with respect to Q we use gradient descent over the orthogonal group SO(n). The optimization can be carried out by computing the unconstrained gradient ?Q ? of the objective function with respect to Q (treating Q as an ordinary matrix), projecting that gradient onto the tangent space of SO (n), and performing a line search along the gradient direction. We now present the necessary formulae to implement the optimization in a modular fashion. We first show how to compute the gradient ?Q ? in terms of the gradients 2 2 ?ui ,vi ??hs , then we show how to compute the ?ui ,vi ??hs in terms of derivatives of kernel functions, and finally demonstrate how the formulae change when approximating the kernel matrices with an incomplete Cholesky decomposition. Given the unconstrained gradient ?Q ? the projection onto the tangent space is given by ? = Q?Q ? > Q ? ?Q ? [13, eq. (22)]. The function is then minimized by performing a line-search along ? (Q + t?), where ? is the projection onto SO (n) which can easily be computed via singular value decomposition of Q + t? and setting the singular values to one [13, prop. 7]. This means that all we need for the gradient descent on SO(n) is the unconstrained gradient ?Q ?. This gradient takes the form of a sum of outer products [16, eq. (20)]   m 2 2 X ?? ?hs ?? ?hs 2 > ?Q ??hs = ? x> , = J ?, J = i ? (ui , v i ) ? (ui , v i ) i i=1 where the matrix ? contains the stimuli xi in its rows. (u) The first k columns J? corresponding to the dimension of the features ui and the last n?k columns J (v) corresponding to the dimension of the features v i are given by     2 2 (u)> (v) (v)> J?(u) = diag HK HD and J = diag HK HD , 2 1 ? ? ? 2 2 (m ? 1) (m ? 1) where  D?(u)   = ij  ? k (ui , v i , y i ) , uj , v j , y j ?ui?  ij th contains the partial derivatives of the kernel with respect to the ? dimension of u (and analogously for v) in the first argument (see supplementary material for the derivation). Efficient implementation with incomplete Cholesky decomposition of the kernel matrix So far, the evaluation of HSIC requires the computation of two m ? m kernel matrices in each step. For larger datasets this can quickly become computationally prohibitive. In order to speed up computation time, we approximate the kernel matrices by an incomplete Cholesky decomposition K = LL> , where L ? Rm?` is a ?tall? matrix [1]. In that case, HSIC can be computed much faster as the trace of a product of two ` ? ` matrices because  2 > 2 tr (K1 HK2 H) = tr L> 1 H L2 L2 H L1 , where HLk can be efficiently computed by centering Lk on its row mean. Also in this case, the matrix J can be computed efficiently in terms of derivatives of sub-matrices of the kernel matrix (see supplementary material for the exact formulae). 3 Related work Kernel dimension reduction in regression [5, 6] Fukumizu and colleagues find maximally informative features U by minimizing EU [I [V | U : Y | U ]] in equation (1) via conditional kernel 4 covariance operators. They show that the covariance operator equals zero if and only if Y is conditionally independent of V given U , that is, Y ??V | U . In that case, U carries all information about Y . Although their approach is closest to ours, it differs in a few key aspects: In contrast to our approach, their objective involves the inversion of a?potentially large?kernel matrix which needs additional regularization in order to be invertible. A conceptual difference is that we are optimizing a slightly more restrictive problem because their objective does not attempt to make U independent of V as well. However, this will not make a difference in many practical cases, since many stimulus distributions are Gaussian for which the dependencies between U and V can be removed by prewhitening the stimulus data before training LID. In that case I [U : V ] = 0 for every choice of Q and equation (2) becomes equivalent to maximizing the mutual information between U and Y . The advantage of our formulation of the problem is that it allows us to detect and quantify independence by comparing the current ??hs to its null distribution obtained by shuffling the (y i , ui ) against v i across examples. This is hardly possible in the conditional case. Also note that for spherically symmetric data I [U : V ] = const. for every choice of Q. In that case equation (2) becomes equivalent to maximizing I [Y : U ]. However, a residual redundancy remains which would show up when 2 comparing ??hs to its null distribution. Finally, the use of kernel covariance operators is bound to kernels that factorize. In principle, our method is also applicable to non-factorizing kernels if we use ?H instead of ?hs and obtain the samples from the product distribution of PY ,U ? PV via shuffling. Maximally informative dimensions [22]    Sharpee and colleagues maximize the relative entropy Ispike = DKL p v > s|spike || p v > s between the distribution of stimuli projected onto informative dimensions given a spike, to the marginal distribution of the projection. This relative entropy is the part of the mutual information which is carried by the arrival of a single spike, since   I v > s : {spike, no spike} = p (spike) ? Ispike + p (no spike) Ino spike . Their method is also completely non-parametric and captures higher order dependencies between a stimulus and a single spike. However, by focusing on single spikes and the spike triggered density only, it neglects the dependencies between spikes and the information carried by the silence of the neuron [28]. Additionally, the generalization to spike patterns or population responses is non-trivial between the projected stimuli and spike patterns $ 1 , ..., $ ` be becausethe information P comes I v > s : $ = p ($ ) ? I$i . This requires the estimation of a conditional distribution i i  > p v s|$ i for each pattern $ i which can quickly become prohibitive when the number of patterns grows exponentially. 4 Experiments In all the experiments below, we demonstrate the validity of our methods on controlled artificial examples and on P-unit recordings from electric fish. We use an RBF kernel on the v i and a tensor RBF kernel on the (ui , y i ): !   > 2  kui y > kv i ? v j k2 i ? uj y j k k (v i , v j ) = exp ? and k (ui , y i ) , uj , y j = exp ? . ?2 ?2 The derivatives of the kernels can be found in the supplementary material. Unless noted otherwise the ? were chosen to be the median of pairwise Euclidean distances between data points. In all artificial experiments, Q was chosen randomly. Linear Non-Linear Poisson Model (LNP) In this experiment, we trained LID on a simple linear nonlinear Poisson (LNP) neuron yi ? Poisson bhw, xi i ? ?c+ with an exponentially decaying filter and a rectifying non-linearity (see Figure 1, left). We used m = 5000 data points xi from a 20-dimensional standard normal distribution N (0, I) as input. The offset was chosen such that approximately 35% non-zero spike counts in the yi were obtained. We used one informative and 19 non-informative dimensions, and set ? = 1 for the tensor kernel. After optimization, the h first dimension q 1 of Q converged i to the filter w (Figure 1). We compared the HSIC values ??hs {(y i , ui )}i=1,...,m : {v i }i=1,...,m before and after the optimization to their null distribution obtained by shuffling. Before the optimization, the dependence of (Y , U ) and V 5 Figure 1: Left: LNP Model. The informative dimension (gray during optimization, black after optimization) converges to the true filter of an LNP model (blue line). Before optimization (Y , U ) and V are dependent as shown by the left inset (null distribution obtained via shuffling in gray, dashed line shows actual HSIC value). After the optimization (right inset) the HSIC value is even below the null distribution. Right: Two state neuron. LID correctly identifies the subspace (blue dashed) in which the two true filters (solid black) reside since projections of the filters on the subspace (red dashed) closely resemble the original filters. is correctly detected (Figure 1, left, insets). After convergence the actual HSIC value lies left to the null distribution?s domain. Since the appropriate test for independence would be one-sided, the null hypothesis ?(Y , U ) is independent of V ? would not be rejected in this case. Two state neuron In this experiment, we simulated a neuron with two states that were both attained in 50% of the trials (see Figure 1, right). This time, the output consisted of four ?bins? whose statistics varied depending on the state. In the first?steady rate?state, the four bins contained spike counts drawn from an LNP neuron with exponentially decaying filter as above. In the second?burst?state, the first two bins were drawn from Poisson distribution with a fixed base rate independent of the stimulus. The second two bins were drawn from an LNP neuron with a modulated exponential filter and higher gain. We used m = 8000 input stimuli from a 20-dimensional standard normal distribution. We use two informative dimensions and set ? of the tensor kernel to two times the median of the pairwise distances. LID correctly identified the subspace associated with the two filters also in this case (Figure 1, right). Artificial complex cell In a second experiment, we estimated the two-dimensional subspace associated with a artificial complex cell. We generated a quadrature pair w1 and w2 of two 10dimensional filters (see Figure 2, left). We used m = 8000 input points from a standard normal distribution. Responses were generated from a Poisson distribution with the rate given by 2 2 ?i = hw1 , xi i + hw2 , xi i . This led to about 34% non-zero neural responses. When using two informative subspaces, LID was able to identify the subspace correctly (Figure 2, left). When comparing the HSIC value against the null distribution found via shuffling, the final value indicated no further dependencies. When only a one-dimensional subspace was used (Figure 2, right), LID did not converge to the correct subspace. Importantly, the HSIC value after optimization was clearly outside the support of the null distribution, thereby correctly indicating residual dependencies. P-Unit recordings from weakly electric fish Finally, we applied our method to P-unit recordings from the weakly electric fish Eigenmannia virescens. These weakly electric fish generate a dipolelike electric field which changes polarity with a frequency at about 300Hz. Sensors in the skin of the fish are tuned to this carrier frequency and respond to amplitude changes caused by close-by objects with different conductive properties than water [20]. In the present recordings, the immobilized fish was stimulated with 10s of 300 ? 600Hz low-pass filtered full field frozen Gaussian white noise amplitude modulations of its own field. Neural activity was recorded intra-cellularly from the P-unit afferents. Spikes were binned with 1ms precision. We selected m = 8400 random time points in the spike response and the corresponding preceding 20ms of the input (20 dimensions). We used the same 6 Figure 2: Artificial Complex Cell. Left: The original filters are 90? phase shifted Gabor filters which form an orthogonal basis for a two-dimensional subspace. After optimization, the two informative dimensions of LID (first two rows of Q) converge to that subspace and also form a pair of 90? phase shifted filters (note that even if the filters are not the same, they span the same subspace). Comparing the HSIC values before and after optimization shows that this subspace contains the relevant information (left and right inset). Right: If only a one-dimensional informative subspace is used, the filter only slightly converges to the subspace. After optimization, a comparison of the HSIC value to the null distribution obtained via shuffling indicates residual dependencies which are not explained by the one-dimensional subspace (left and right inset). Figure 3: Most informative feature for a weakly electric fish P-Unit: A random filter (blue trace) exhibits HSIC values that are clearly outside the domain of the null distribution (left inset). Using the spike triggered average (red trace) moves the HSIC values of the first feature of Q already inside the null distribution (middle inset). Further optimization with LID refines the feature (black trace) and brings the HSIC values closer to zero (right inset). After optimization, the informative feature U is independent of the features V because the first row and column of the covariance matrix of the transformed Gaussian input show no correlations. The fact that one informative feature is sufficient to bring the HSIC values inside the null distribution indicates that a single subspace captures all information conveyed by these sensory neurons. kernels as in the experiment on the LNP model. We initialized the first row in Q with the normalized spike triggered average (STA; Figure 3, left, red trace). We neither pre-whitened the data for computing the STA nor for the optimization of LID. Unlike a random feature (Figure 3, left, blue trace), the spike triggered average already achieves HSIC values within the null distribution (Figure 3, left and middle inset). The most informative feature corresponding to U looks very similar to the STA but shifts the HSIC value deeper into the domain of the null distribution (Figure 3, right inset). 7 This indicates that one single subspace in the input is sufficient to carry all information between the input and the neural response. 5 Discussion Here we presented a non-parametric method to estimate a subspace of the stimulus space that contains all information about a response variable Y . Even though our method is completely generic and applicable to arbitrary input-output pairs of data, we focused on the application in the context of sensory neuroscience. The advantage of the generic approach is that Y can in principle be anything from spike counts, to spike patterns or population responses. Since our method finds the most informative dimensions by making the complement of those dimensions as independent from the data as possible, we termed it least informative dimensions (LID). We use the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion to minimize the dependencies between the uninformative features and the combination of informative features and outputs. This measure is easy to implement, avoids the need to estimate mutual information, and its estimator has good convergence properties independent of the dimensionality of the data. Even though our approach only estimates the informative features and not mutual information itself, it can help to estimate mutual information by reducing the number of dimensions. As in the approach by Fukumizu and colleagues, it might be that no Q exists such that I [Y , U : V ] = 0. In that situation, the price to pay for an easier measure is that it is hard to make definite statements about the informativeness of the features U in terms of the Shannon information, since ?H = I [Y , U : V ] = 0 is the point that connects ?H to the mutual information. As demonstrated in the experiments, we can detect this case by comparing the actual value of ??H to an empirical null distribution of ??H values obtained by shuffling the v i against the ui , y i pairs. However, if ?H 6= 0, theoretical upper bounds on the mutual information are unfortunately not available. 2 In fact, using results from [25] and Pinsker?s inequality one can show that ?H bounds the mutual information from below. One might now be tempted to think that maximizing ?H [Y , U ] might be a better way to find informative features. While this might be a way to get some informative features [24], it is not possible to link the features to informativeness in terms of Shannon mutual information, because the point that builds the bridge between the two dependency measures is where both of them are zero. Anywhere else the bound may not be tight so the maximally informative features in terms of ?H and in terms of mutual information can be different. Another problem our approach shares with many algorithms that detect higher-order dependencies is the non-convexity of the objective function. In practice, we found that the degree to which this poses a problem very much depends on the problem at hand. For instance, while the subspaces of the LNP or the two state neuron were detected reliably, the two dimensional subspace of the artificial complex cell seems to pose a harder problem. It is likely that the choice of kernel has an influence on the landscape of the objective function. We plan to explore this relationship in more detail in the future. In general, a good initialization of Q helps to get close to the global optimum. Beyond that, however, integral probability metric approaches to maximally informative dimensions offer a great chance to avoid many problems associated with direct estimation of mutual information, and to extend it to much more interesting output structures than single spikes. Acknowledgements Fabian Sinz would like to thank Lucas Theis and Sebastian Gerwinn for helpful discussions and comments on the manuscript. This study is part of the research program of the Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, T?ubingen, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; FKZ: 01GQ1002). References [1] F. R. Bach and M. I. Jordan. Predictive low-rank decomposition for kernel methods. In Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on Machine learning - ICML ?05, pages 33?40, New York, New York, USA, 2005. ACM Press. 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Sriperumbudur, K. Fukumizu, A. Gretton, and G. R. G. Lanckriet. On Integral Probability Metrics, phi-divergences and binary classification. Technical Report 1, arXiv, 2009. [26] B. K. Sriperumbudur, A. Gretton, K. Fukumizu, G. Lanckriet, and B. Sch?olkopf. Injective Hilbert Space Embeddings of Probability Measures. In Proceedings of the 21st Annual Conference on Learning Theory, number i, pages 111?122. Omnipress, 2008. [27] B. K. Sriperumbudur, A. Gretton, K. Fukumizu, B. Sch?olkopf, and G.R. G. Lanckriet. Hilbert Space Embeddings and Metrics on Probability Measures. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11(1):48, 2010. [28] R. S. Williamson, M. Sahani, and J. W. Pillow. Equating information-theoretic and likelihood-based methods for neural dimensionality reduction. Technical Report 1, arXiv, 2013. 9
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Blind Calibration in Compressed Sensing using Message Passing Algorithms ? Christophe Schulke Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cit?e, ESPCI and CNRS UMR 7083 Paris 75005, France Francesco Caltagirone Institut de Physique Th?eorique CEA Saclay and CNRS URA 2306 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France Florent Krzakala ENS and CNRS UMR 8550, ESPCI and CNRS UMR 7083 Paris 75005, France Lenka Zdeborov?a Institut de Physique Th?eorique CEA Saclay and CNRS URA 2306 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France Abstract Compressed sensing (CS) is a concept that allows to acquire compressible signals with a small number of measurements. As such it is very attractive for hardware implementations. Therefore, correct calibration of the hardware is a central issue. In this paper we study the so-called blind calibration, i.e. when the training signals that are available to perform the calibration are sparse but unknown. We extend the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm used in CS to the case of blind calibration. In the calibration-AMP, both the gains on the sensors and the elements of the signals are treated as unknowns. Our algorithm is also applicable to settings in which the sensors distort the measurements in other ways than multiplication by a gain, unlike previously suggested blind calibration algorithms based on convex relaxations. We study numerically the phase diagram of the blind calibration problem, and show that even in cases where convex relaxation is possible, our algorithm requires a smaller number of measurements and/or signals in order to perform well. 1 Introduction The problem of acquiring an N -dimensional signal x through M linear measurements, y = F x, arises in many contexts. The Compressed Sensing (CS) approach [1, 2] exploits the fact that, in many cases of interest, the signal is K-sparse (in an appropriate known basis), meaning that only K = ?N out of the N components are non-zero. Compressed sensing theory shows that a K-sparse N -dimensional signal can be reconstructed from far less than N linear measurements [1, 2], thus saving acquisition time, cost or increasing the resolution. In the most common setting, the linear M ? N map F is considered to be known. Nowadays, the concept of compressed sensing is very attractive for hardware implementations. However, one of the main issues when building hardware revolves around calibration. Usually the sensors introduce a distortion (or decalibration) to the measurements in the form of some unknown gains. Calibration is about how to determine the transfer function between the measurements and the readings from the sensor. In some applications dealing with distributed sensors or radars for instance, the location or intrinsic parameters of the sensors are not exactly known [3, 4]. Similar distortion can be found in applications with microphone arrays [5]. The need for calibration has been emphasized in a number of other works, see e.g. [6, 7, 8]. One common way of dealing with calibration (apart from ignoring it or considering it as measurement noise) is supervised calibration 1 when some known training signals xl , l = 1, . . . , P and the corresponding observations yl are used to estimate the distortion parameters. Given a sparse signal recovery problem, if we were not able to previously estimate the distortion parameters via supervised calibration, we will need to estimate the unknown signal and the unknown distortion parameters simultaneously - this is known as blind (unsupervised) calibration. If such blind calibration is computationally possible, then it might be simpler to do than the supervised calibration in practice. The main contribution of this paper is a computationally efficient message passing algorithm for blind calibration. 1.1 Setting We state the problem of blind calibration in the following way. First we introduce an unknown distortion parameter (we will also use equivalently the term decalibration parameter or gain) d? for each of the sensors, ? = 1, . . . , M . Note that d? can also represent a vector of several parameters. We consider that the signal is linearly projected by a known M ? N measurement matrix F and only then distorted according to some known transfer function h. This transfer function can be probabilistic (noisy), non-linear, etc. Each sensor ? then provides the following distorted and noisy PN reading (measure) y? = h(z? , d? , w? ) where z? = i=1 F?i xi . As often in CS, we focus on the case where the measurement matrix F is iid Gaussian with zero mean. For the measurement noise w? , one usually considers an iid Gaussian noise with variance ?, which is added to z? . In order to perform the blind calibration, we need to measure several statistically diverse signals. Given a set of N -dimensional K-sparse signals xl with l = 1, ? ? ? , P , for each of the signals we consider M sensor readings y?l = h(z?l , d? , w?l ) , where z?l = N X F?i xil , (1) i=1 where d? are the signal-independent distortion parameters, w?l is a signal-dependent measurement noise, and h is an arbitrary known function of these variables with standard regularity requirements. To illustrate a situation in which one has sample dependent noise w?l and sample independent distortion d? , consider for instance sound sensors placed in space at positions d? that are not exactly known. The positions, however, do not change when different sounds are recorded. The noise w?l is then the ambient noise that is different during every recording. The final inference problem is hence as follows: Given the M ? P measurements y?l and a perfect knowledge of the matrix F , we want to infer both the P different signals {x1 , ? ? ? xP } and the M distortion parameters d? , ? = 1, ? ? ? M . In this work we place ourselves in the Bayesian setting where we assume the distribution of the signal elements, PX , and the distortion coefficients, PD , to be known. 1.2 Relation to previous work As far as we know, the problem of blind calibration was first studied in the context of compressed sensing in [9] where the distortions were considered as multiplicative, i.e. the transfer function was h(z?l , d? , w?l ) = 1 (z?l + w?l ) . d? (2) A subsequent work [10] considers a more general case when the distortion parameters are d? = (g? , ?? ), and the transfer function h(z?l , d? , w?l ) = ei?? (z?l + w?l )/g? . Both [9] and [10] applied convex optimization based algorithms to the blind calibration problem and their approach seems to be limited to the above special cases of transfer functions. Our approach is able to deal with a general transfer function h, and moreover for the product-transfer-function (2) it outperforms the algorithm of [9]. The most commonly used algorithm for signal reconstruction in CS is the `1 minimization of [1]. In CS without noise and for measurement matrices with iid Gaussian elements, the `1 minimization algorithm leads to exact reconstruction as long as the measurement rate ? = M/N > ?DT in the limit of large signal dimension, where ?DT is a well known phase transition of Donoho and Tanner [11]. The blind calibration algorithm of [9, 10] also directly uses `1 minimization for reconstruction. 2 In the last couple of years, the theory of CS witnessed a large progress thanks to the development of message passing algorithms based on the standard loopy Belief Propagation (BP) and their analysis [12, 13, 14, 15, 16]. In the context of compressed sensing, the canonical loopy BP is difficult to implement because its messages would be probability distributions over a continuous support. At the same time in problems such as compressed sensing, Gaussian or quadratic approximation of BP still contains the information necessary for a successful reconstruction of the signal. Such approximations of loopy BP originated in works on CDMA multiuser detection [17, 18]. In compressed sensing the Gaussian approximation of BP is known as the approximate message passing (AMP) [12, 13], and it was used to prove that with properly designed measurement matrices F the signal can be reconstructed as long as the number of measurements is larger than the number of non-zero component in the signal, thus closing the gap between the Donoho-Tanner transition and the information theoretical lower bound [15, 16]. Even without particular design of the measurement matrices the AMP algorithm outperforms the `1 -minimization for a large class of signals. Importantly for the present work, [14] generalized the AMP algorithm to deal with a wider range of input and output functions. For some of those, generalizations of the `1 -minimization based approach are not convex anymore, and hence they do not have the advantage of provable computational tractability anymore. The following two works have considered blind calibration related problems with the use of AMPlike algorithms. In [19] the authors use AMP combined with expectation maximization to calibrate gains that act on the signal components rather than on the measurement components as we consider here. In [20] the authors study the case when every element of the measurement matrix F has to be calibrated, in contrast to the row-constant gains considered in this paper. The setting of [20] is much closer to the dictionary learning problem and is much more demanding, both computationally and in terms of the number of different signals necessary for successful calibration. 1.3 Contributions In this work we extend the generalized approximate message passing (GAMP) algorithm of [14] to the problem of blind calibration with a general transfer function h, eq. (1). We denote it as the calibration-AMP or Cal-AMP algorithm. The Cal-AMP uses P > 1 unknown sparse signals to learn both the different signals xl , l = 1, . . . , P , and the distortion parameters d? , ? = 1, . . . , M , of the sensors. We hence overcome the limitations of the blind calibration algorithm presented in [9, 10] to the class of settings for which the calibration can be written as a convex optimization problem. In the second part of this paper we analyze the performance of Cal-AMP for the product transfer function (2) used in [9] and demonstrate its scalability and better performance with respect to their `1 -based calibration approach. In the numerical study we observe a sharp phase transition generalizing the phase transition seen for AMP in compressed sensing [21]. Note that for the blind calibration problem to be solvable, we need the amount of information contained in the sensor readings, P M , to be at least as large as the size of the vector of distortion parameters M , plus the number of the non-zero components of all the signals, KP . Defining ? = K/N and ? = M/N , this leads to ?P ? ?P + ?. If we fix the number of signals P we have a well defined line in the (?, ?)-plane given by P ?? ? ? ?min , (3) P ?1 below which exact calibration cannot be possible. We will compare the empirically observed phase transition for blind calibration to this theoretical bound as well as to the phase transition that would have been observed in the pure CS, i.e. if we knew the distortion parameters. 2 The Calibration-AMP algorithm The Cal-AMP algorithm is based on a Bayesian probabilistic formulation of the reconstruction problem. Denoting PX (xil ) the assumed empirical distribution of the components of the signal, PW (w?l ) the assumed probability distribution of the components of the noise, and PD (d? ) the assumed empirical distribution of the distortion parameters, the Bayes formula yields N,P P,M M Y Y Z 1 Y P (x, d|F, y) = PX (xil ) PD (d? ) dw?l PW (w?l )? [y?l ? h (z?l , d? , w?l )] , Z ?=1 i,l=1 l,?=1 (4) 3 P where Z is a normalization constant and z?l = i F?i xil . We denote the marginals of the signal R Q Q components ?ilx (xil ) = ? dd? jn6=il dxjn P (x, d|F, y) and those of the distortion parameRQ Q d ? ters ?? (d? ) = ?6=? dd? il dxil P (x, d|F, y). The estimators xil that minimizes the expected ? mean-squared error (MSE) of the signals and the estimator d? of the distortion parameters are the avR R erages w.r.t. the marginal distributions, namely x?il = dxil xil ?ilx (xil ) and d?? = dd? d? ??d (d? ). An exact computation of these estimates is not tractable in any known way so we use instead a belief-propagation based approximation that has proven to be fast and efficient in the CS problem [12, 13, 14]. We remind that GAMP, that leads to a considerably simpler inference problem, is recovered if we set PD (d? ) = ?(d? ?1) and that usual AMP is recovered by setting h(z, d, w) = z+w on top of it. Figure 1: Graphical model representing the blind calibration problem. Here the dimensionality of the signal is N = 8, the number of sensors is M = 3, and the number of signals used for calibration P = 2. The variable nodes xil and d? are depicted as circles, the factor nodes as squares. Given the factor graph representation of the calibration problem in Fig. 1, the canonical belief propagation equations for the probability measure (4) are written in terms of N P M pairs of messages m ? ?l?il (xil ) and mil??l (xil ), representing probability distributions on the signal component xil , and P M pairs of messages n???l (d? ) and n ? ?l?? (d? ), representing probability distributions on the distortion parameter d? . Following the lines of [12, 13, 14, 15], with the use of the central limit theorem, a Gaussian approximation, and neglecting terms that go to zero as N ? ?, the BP equations can be closed using only the means and variances of the messages mil??l and n???l : Z Z ail??l = dxil mil??l (xil ) xil , vil??l = dxil mil??l (xil ) x2il ? a2il??l , (5) Z Z 2 k???l = dd? n???l (d? ) d? , l???l = dd? n???l (d? ) d2? ? k???l . (6) Moreover, again neglecting only terms that go to zero as N ? ?, we can write closed equations on quantities that correspond to the variables and factors nodes, P instead of messages running P 2between variables and factor nodes. For this we introduce ??l = i F?i ail??l and V?l = i F?i vil??l . The derivation of the Cal-AMP algorithm is similar to those in [12, 13, 14, 15]. The resulting algorithm is in the leading order equivalent to the belief propagation for the factor graph from Fig. 1. To summarize the resulting algorithm we define Z (z??)2 ? d, ?, v) = dz dw PW (w) ?[h(z, d, w) ? y] e? 21 v , and (7) G(y, "Z # P Y ?d ? G(y?? , ??? , V?? , ?) = ln dd PD (d) G(y?n , d, ??n , V?n ) e , (8) n=1 where ?? indicates a dependence on all the variables labeled ?n with n = 1, ? ? ? , P , and ?(?) is the Dirac delta function. Similarly as Rangan in [14], we define P output functions as ? l gout (y?? , ??? , V?? ) = G(y?? , ??? , V?? , ? = 0) . (9) ???l Note that each of the output functions depend on all the P different signals. We also define the following input functions fax (?2 , R) = [x]X , fcx (?2 , R) = [x2 ]X ? [x]2X , (10) 4 where [. . . ]X indicates expectation w.r.t. the measure MX (x, ?2 , R) = (x?R)2 1 PX (x) e? 2?2 . 2 Z(? , R) (11) Given the above definitions, the iterative calibration-AMP algorithm reads as follows: X X t+1 t+1 t+1 t+1 2 t V?l = F?i vil , ??l = F?i atil ? V?l e?l , i et+1 ?l 2 (?t+1 il ) = = l t t gout (y?? , ??? , V?? ), " X #?1 2 F?i ht+1 ?l , ? l t t+1 g (y?? , ??? , V?? ), ???l out " # X t+1 2 = ail + F?i e?l (?t+1 il ) , ht+1 ?l = ? t+1 Ril ? at+1 il = (12) i (13) (14) ? t+1 2 fax ((?t+1 il ) , Ril ) , t+1 t+1 2 vil = fcx ((?t+1 il ) , Ril ) , (15) t=0 t=0 we initialize ??l = y?l , at=0 as the mean and variance of the assumed distribution PX (?), il and vil and iterate these equations until convergence. At every time-step the quantity ail is the estimate for the signal element xil , and vil is the approximate error of this estimate. The estimate and its error for the distortion parameter d? can be computed as ?2 ? t+1 t+1 t+1 t+1 t+1 t+1 G(y?? , ??? , V?? , ?) and l?t+1 = 2 G(y?? , ??? , V?? , ?) . (16) k?t+1 = ?? ?? ?=0 ?=0 By setting PD (d? ) = ?(d? ? dtrue ? ), and simplifying eq. (8), readers familiar with the work of Rangan [14] will recognize the GAMP algorithm in eqs. (12-15). Note that for a general transfer function h the generating function G (8) has to be evaluated numerically. The overall complexity of the Cal-AMP algorithm scales as O(M N P ) and hence shares the scalability advantages of AMP [12]. 2.1 Cal-AMP for the product transfer function In the numerical section of this paper we will focus on a specific case of the transfer function h(z?l , d? , w?l ), defined in eq. (2). We consider the measurement noise w?l to be Gaussian of zero mean and variance ?. This transfer function was considered in the work of [9] and we will hence be able to compare the performance of Cal-AMP directly to the convex optimization investigated in [9]. For the product transfer function eq. (2) most integrals requiring a numerical computation in the general case are expressed analytically and we can replace equations (13) by: t k?t y?l ? ??l , t +? V?l " #?1 2 X y?n t+1 2 , (C? ) = t+1 V?n +? n et+1 ?l = k?t+1 = fad ((C?t+1 )2 , T?t+1 ) , ht+1 ?l = 1 t+1 V?l +? T?t+1 = (C?t+1 )2 l?t+1 = ? 2 l?t y?l t+1 (V?l + ?)2 t+1 X y?n ??n t+1 V?n + n d t+1 2 t+1 fc ((C? ) , T? ) . ? , , (17) (18) (19) where we have introduced the functions fad and fcd similarly to those in eq. (10), except the expectation is made w.r.t. to the measure (d?T )2 1 MD (d, C 2 , T ) = PD (d)|d|P e? 2C 2 . (20) 2 Z(C , T ) 3 Experimental results Our simulations were performed using a MATLAB implementation of the Cal-AMP algorithm presented in the previous section, that is available online [22]. We focused on the noiseless case ? = 0 for which exact reconstruction is conceivable. We tested the algorithm on randomly generated Gauss-Bernoulli signals with density of non-zero elements ?, normally distributed around zero with 5 unit variance. For the present experiments the algorithm is using this information via a matching distribution PX (xil ). The situation when PX mismatches the true signal distribution was discussed for AMP for compressed sensing in [21]. The distortion parameters?d? were generated from a uniform distribution centered at d = 1 with variance ? 2 and width 2 3?. This ensures that, as ? 2 ? 0, the results of standard compressed sensing are recovered, while the distortions are growing with ? 2 . For numerical stability purposes, the parameter ? 2 used in the update functions of Cal-AMP was taken to be slightly larger than the variance used to create the actual distortion parameters. For the same reasons, we have also added a small noise ? = 10?17 and used damping in the iterations in order to avoid oscillatory behavior. In this noiseless case we iterate the Cal-AMP equations until the following quantity crit = P P 2 1 ?l (k? y?l ? i F?i ail ) becomes smaller than the numerical precision of implementation, MP around 10?16 , or until that quantity does not decrease any more over 100 iterations. Success or failure of the reconstruction is usually determined by looking at the mean squared error (MSE) between the true signal x0l and the reconstructed one al . In the noiseless setting the product transfer function h leads to a scaling invariance and therefore a better measure of success is the cross-correlation between real and recovered signal (used in [10]) or a corrected version of the MSE, defined by: 2 1 X 0 1 X d0? MSEcorr = xil ? s?ail , where s? = (21) NP M ? k? il is an estimation of the scaling factor s. Slight deviations between empirical and theoretical means due to the finite size of M and N lead to important differences between MSE and MSEcorr , only the latter truly going to zero for finite N and M . P=1 P=2 P = 10 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 ?min ?CS log (MSEcorr) ? 10 1 1 ?4 1 ?6 ?8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 ?10 ?12 0 0.5 ? 1 0 0.5 ? 1 0 0.5 ? 1 ?14 Figure 2: Phase diagrams for different numbers P of calibrating signals: The measurement rate ? = M/N is plotted against the density of the signal ? = K/N . The plotted value is the decimal logarithm of MSEcorr (21) achieved for one random instance. Black indicates failure of the reconstruction, while white represents perfect reconstruction (i.e. a MSE of the order of the numerical precision). In this figure the distortion variance is ? 2 = 0.01 and N = 1000. While for P = 1 reconstruction is never possible, for P > 1, there is a phase transition very close to the lower bound defined by ?min in equation (3) or to the phase transition line of the pure compressed sensing problem ?CS . Note, however, that in the large N limit we expect the calibration phase transition to be strictly larger than both the ?min and ?CS . Note also that while this diagram is usually plotted only for ? ? 1 for compressed sensing, the part ? > 1 displays pertinent information in blind calibration. Fig. 2 shows the empirical phase diagrams in the ?-? plane we obtained from the Cal-AMP algorithm for different number of signals P . For P = 1 the reconstruction is never exact, and effectively this case corresponds to reconstruction without any attempt to calibrate. For any P > 1, there is a sharp phase transition taking place with a jump in MSEcorr of ten orders of magnitude. As P increases, the phase of exact reconstruction gets bigger and tends to the one observed in Bayesian compressed sensing [15]. Remarkably, for small values of the density ?, the position of the CalAMP phase transition is very close to the CS one already for P = 2 and Cal-AMP performs almost as well as in the total absence of distortion. 6 ?5 Iterations ? log10(MSEcorr) ? 0 ?10 600 N 500 50 200 400 1000 5000 10000 400 300 200 100 ?15 0.45 0.5 0 0.45 0.55 ? 0.5 ? 0.55 0.6 Figure 3: Left: Cal-AMP phase transition as the system size N grows. The curves are obtained by averaging log10 (MSEcorr ) over 100 samples, reflecting the probability of correct reconstruction in the region close to the phase transition, where it is not guaranteed. Parameters are: ? = 0.2, P = 2, ? 2 = 0.0251. For higher values of N , the phase transition becomes sharper. Right: Mean number of iterations necessary for reconstruction, when the true signal is successfully recovered. Far from the phase transition, increasing N does not increase visibly the number of iterations for these system sizes, showing that our algorithm works in linear time. The number of needed iterations increases drastically as one approaches the phase transition. 0 10 16 log10(?2) log10(MSEcorr) 14 0 ?0.4 ?5 10 12 ?1 MSEcorr ?2 10 ?5 ?10 10 8 ?7 6 ?12 ?min ?15 2 ?15 0.25 ?10 4 ?CS 10 ?5 P ?3 0.3 0.35 0.4 ? 0.45 0.5 0.55 ?4 ?3 ?2 log10(?2) ?1 Figure 4: Left: Position of the phase transition in ? for different distortion variances ? 2 . The left vertical line represents the position of the CS phase transition, the right one is the counting bound eq. (3). With growing distortion, larger measurement rates become necessary for perfect calibration and reconstruction. Intermediary values of MSEcorr are obtained in a region where perfect calibration is not possible, but distortions are small enough for the uncalibrated AMP to make only small mistakes. The parameters here are P = 2 and ? = 0.2. Right: Phase diagram as the variance of the distortions ? 2 and the number of signals P vary, for ? = 0.5, ? = 0.75 and N = 1000. Fig. 3 shows the behavior near the phase transition, giving insights about the influence of the system size and the number of iterations needed for precise calibration and reconstruction. In Fig. 4, we show the jump in the MSE on a single instance as the measurement rate ? decreases. The right part is the phase diagram in the ? 2 -P plane. In [9, 10], a calibration algorithm using `1 -minimization has been proposed. While in that case, no assumption on the distribution of the signals and of the the gains is needed, for most practical cases it is expected to be less performant than the Cal-AMP if these distributions are known or reasonably approximated. We implemented the algorithm of [9] with MATLAB using the CVX package [23]. Due to longer running times, experiments were made using a smaller system size N = 100. We also remind at this point that whereas the Cal-AMP algorithm works for a generic transfer function (1), the `1 -minimization based calibration is restricted to the transfer functions considered by [9, 10]. Fig. 5 shows a comparison of the performances of the two algorithms in the ?-? phase diagrams. The Cal-AMP clearly outperforms the `1 -minimization in the sense that the region in which calibration is possible is much larger. 7 P=3 P=5 P = 10 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 1 1 ?min ?CS ?DT ? Cal?AMP P=2 2 ? log10(MSEcorr) ? 0.5 0 ? L1 2 0.5 0 0.5 1 0 2 0.5 0 0.5 1 0 2 ?2 0.5 0 0.5 1 0 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 ?4 0 0.5 1 ?6 ?8 ?10 ?12 ?14 0 0.5 ? 1 0 0.5 ? 1 0 0.5 ? 1 0 0.5 ? 1 Figure 5: Comparison of the empirical phase diagrams obtained with the Cal-AMP algorithm proposed here (top) and the `1 -minimization calibration algorithm of [9] (bottom) averaged over several random samples; black indicates failure, white indicates success. The area where reconstruction is possible is consistently much larger for Cal-AMP than for `1 -minimization-based calibration. The plotted lines are the phase transitions for CS without unknown distortions with the AMP algorithm (?CS , in red, from [21]), and with `1 -minimization (the Donoho-Tanner transition ?DT , in blue, from [11]). The line ?min is the lower counting bound from eq. (3). The advantage of Cal-AMP over `1 -minimization calibration is clear. Note that in both cases, the region close to the transition is blurred due to finite system size, hence a region of grey pixels (again, the effect is more pronounced for the `1 algorithm). 4 Conclusion We have presented the Cal-AMP algorithm for blind calibration in compressed sensing, a problem where the outputs of the measurements are distorted by some unknown gains on the sensors, eq. (1). The Cal-AMP algorithm allows to jointly infer sparse signals and the distortion parameters of each sensor even with a very small number of signals and is computationally as efficient as the GAMP algorithm for compressed sensing [14]. Another advantage w.r.t. previous works is that the CalAMP algorithm works for generic transfer function between the measurements and the readings from the sensor, not only those that permit a convex formulation of the inference problem as in [9, 10]. In the numerical analysis, we focussed on the case of the product transfer function (2) studied in [9]. Our results show that, for the chosen parameters, calibration is possible with a very small number of different sparse signals P (i.e. P = 2 or P = 3), even very close to the absolute minimum of measurements required by a counting bound (3). Comparison with the `1 -minimizing calibration algorithm clearly shows lower requirements on the measurement rate ? and on the number of signals P for Cal-AMP. The Cal-AMP algorithm for blind calibration is scalable and simple to implement. Its efficiency shows that supervised training is unnecessary. We expect Cal-AMP to become useful in practical compressed sensing implementations. Asymptotic analysis of AMP can be done using the state evolution approach [12]. In the case of Cal-AMP, however, analysis of the resulting state evolution equations is more difficult and has hence been postponed to future work. Future work also includes the study of the robustness to the mismatch between assumed and true distribution of signal elements and distortion parameters, as well as the expectation-maximization based learning of the various parameters. Finally, the use of spatially coupled measurement matrices [15, 16] could further improve the performance of the algorithm and make the phase transition asymptotically coincide with the information-theoretical counting bound (3). 8 References [1] E. J. Cand`es and T. Tao. Decoding by linear programming. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 51:4203, 2005. [2] D. L. Donoho. Compressed sensing. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 52:1289, 2006. [3] B. C. Ng and C. M. S. See. Sensor-array calibration using a maximum-likelihood approach. IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation, 44(6):827?835, 1996. [4] Z. Yang, C. Zhang, and L. Xie. Robustly stable signal recovery in compressed sensing with structured matrix perturbation. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 60(9):4658?4671, 2012. [5] R. Mignot, L. Daudet, and F. Ollivier. Compressed sensing for acoustic response reconstruction: Interpolation of the early part. In IEEE Workshop on Applications of Signal Processing to Audio and Acoustics (WASPAA), pages 225?228, 2011. [6] T. Ragheb, J. N Laska, H. Nejati, S. Kirolos, R. G Baraniuk, and Y. Massoud. A prototype hardware for random demodulation based compressive analog-to-digital conversion. In 51st Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems (MWSCAS), pages 37?40. IEEE, 2008. [7] J. A Tropp, J. N. Laska, M. F. Duarte, J. K Romberg, and R. G. Baraniuk. Beyond nyquist: Efficient sampling of sparse bandlimited signals. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 56(1):520?544, 2010. [8] P. J. Pankiewicz, T. Arildsen, and T. Larsen. Model-based calibration of filter imperfections in the random demodulator for compressive sensing. arXiv:1303.6135, 2013. [9] R. Gribonval, G. Chardon, and L. Daudet. Blind calibration for compressed sensing by convex optimization. In IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP), pages 2713 ? 2716, 2012. [10] C. Bilen, G. Puy, R. Gribonval, and L. Daudet. Blind sensor calibration in sparse recovery using convex optimization. In 10th Int. Conf. on Sampling Theory and Applications, 2013. [11] D. L. Donoho and J. Tanner. Sparse nonnegative solution of underdetermined linear equations by linear programming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 102(27):9446?9451, 2005. [12] D. L. Donoho, A. Maleki, and A. Montanari. Message-passing algorithms for compressed sensing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106(45):18914?18919, 2009. [13] D.L. Donoho, A. Maleki, and A. Montanari. Message passing algorithms for compressed sensing: I. motivation and construction. In IEEE Information Theory Workshop (ITW), pages 1 ?5, 2010. [14] S. Rangan. Generalized approximate message passing for estimation with random linear mixing. In Proc. of the IEEE Int. Symp. on Inform. Theory (ISIT), pages 2168 ?2172, 2011. [15] F. Krzakala, M. M?ezard, F. Sausset, Y.F. Sun, and L. Zdeborov?a. Statistical physics-based reconstruction in compressed sensing. Phys. Rev. X, 2:021005, 2012. [16] D. L. Donoho, A. Javanmard, and A. Montanari. Information-theoretically optimal compressed sensing via spatial coupling and approximate message passing. In Proc. of the IEEE Int. Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT), pages 1231?1235, 2012. [17] J. Boutros and G. Caire. Iterative multiuser joint decoding: Unified framework and asymptotic analysis. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 48(7):1772?1793, 2002. [18] Y. Kabashima. A cdma multiuser detection algorithm on the basis of belief propagation. J. Phys. A: Math. and Gen., 36(43):11111, 2003. [19] U. S. Kamilov, A. Bourquard, E. Bostan, and M. Unser. Autocalibrated signal reconstruction from linear measurements using adaptive gamp. online preprint, 2013. [20] F. Krzakala, M. M?ezard, and L. Zdeborov?a. Phase diagram and approximate message passing for blind calibration and dictionary learning. ISIT 2013, arXiv:1301.5898, 2013. [21] F. Krzakala, M. M?ezard, F. Sausset, Y.F. Sun, and L. Zdeborov?a. Probabilistic reconstruction in compressed sensing: Algorithms, phase diagrams, and threshold achieving matrices. J. Stat. Mech., P08009, 2012. [22] http://aspics.krzakala.org/. [23] M. Grant and S. Boyd. CVX: Matlab software for disciplined convex programming, version 2.0 beta. http://cvxr.com/cvx, 2012. 9
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Estimating LASSO Risk and Noise Level Mohsen Bayati Stanford University [email protected] Murat A. Erdogdu Stanford University [email protected] Andrea Montanari Stanford University [email protected] Abstract We study the fundamental problems of variance and risk estimation in high dimensional statistical modeling. In particular, we consider the problem of learning a coefficient vector ?0 ? Rp from noisy linear observations y = X?0 + w ? Rn (p > n) and the popular estimation procedure of solving the `1 -penalized least squares objective known as the LASSO or Basis Pursuit DeNoising (BPDN). In this context, we develop new estimators for the `2 estimation risk k?b ? ?0 k2 and the variance of the noise when distributions of ?0 and w are unknown. These can be used to select the regularization parameter optimally. Our approach combines Stein?s unbiased risk estimate [Ste81] and the recent results of [BM12a][BM12b] on the analysis of approximate message passing and the risk of LASSO. We establish high-dimensional consistency of our estimators for sequences of matrices X of increasing dimensions, with independent Gaussian entries. We establish validity for a broader class of Gaussian designs, conditional on a certain conjecture from statistical physics. To the best of our knowledge, this result is the first that provides an asymptotically consistent risk estimator for the LASSO solely based on data. In addition, we demonstrate through simulations that our variance estimation outperforms several existing methods in the literature. 1 Introduction In Gaussian random design model for the linear regression, we seek to reconstruct an unknown coefficient vector ?0 ? Rp from a vector of noisy linear measurements y ? Rn : y = X?0 + w, (1.1) where X ? Rn?p is a measurement (or feature) matrix with iid rows generated through a multivariate normal density. The noise vector, w, has iid entries with mean 0 and variance ? 2 . While this problem is well understood in the low dimensional regime p  n, a growing corpus of research addresses the more challenging high-dimensional scenario in which p > n. The Basis Pursuit Denoising (BPDN) or LASSO [CD95, Tib96] is an extremely popular approach in this regime, that finds an estimate for ?0 by minimizing the following cost function CX,y (?, ?) ? (2n)?1 ky ? X?k22 + ?k?k1 , (1.2) b X, y) = argmin CX,y (?, ?). This method is with ? > 0. In particular, ?0 is estimated by ?(?; ? well suited for the ubiquitous case in which ?0 is sparse, i.e. a small number of features effectively predict the outcome. Since this optimization problem is convex, it can be solved efficiently, and fast specialized algorithms have been developed for this purpose [BT09]. Research has established a number of important properties of LASSO estimator under suitable conditions on the design matrix X, and for sufficiently sparse vectors ?0 . Under irrepresentability conditions, the LASSO correctly recovers the support of ?0 [ZY06, MB06, Wai09]. Under weaker 1 conditions such as restricted isometry or compatibility properties the correct recovery of support fails however, the `2 estimation error k?b? ?0 k2 is of the same order as the one achieved by an oracle estimator that knows the support [CRT06, CT07, BRT09, BdG11]. Finally, [DMM09, RFG09, BM12b] b for Gaussian design provided asymptotic formulas for MSE or other operating characteristics of ?, matrices X. While the aforementioned research provides solid justification for using the LASSO estimator, it is of limited guidance to the practitioner. For instance, a crucial question is how to set the regularization parameter ?. This question becomes even more urgent for high-dimensional methods with multiple regularization terms. The oracle bounds of [CRT06, CT07, BRT09, BdG11] suggest to take ? = ? c ? log p with c a dimension-independent constant (say c = 1 or 2). However, in practice a factor two in ? can make a substantial difference for statistical applications. Related to this issue is the question of estimating accurately the `2 error k?b ? ?0 k22 . The above oracle bounds have the form ? k?b ? ?0 k22 ? C k?2 , with k = k?0 k0 the number of nonzero entries in ?0 , as long as ? ? c? log p. As a consequence, minimizing the bound does not yield a recipe for setting ?. Finally, estimating the noise level is necessary for applying these formulae, and this is in itself a challenging question. The results of [DMM09, BM12b] provide exact asymptotic formulae for the risk, and its dependence on the regularization parameter ?. This might appear promising for choosing the optimal value of ?, but has one serious drawback. The formulae of [DMM09, BM12b] depend on the empirical distribution1 of the entries of ?0 , which is of course unknown, as well as on the noise level2 . A step towards the resolution of this problem was taken in [DMM11], which determined the least favorable noise level and distribution of entries, and hence suggested a prescription for ?, and a predicted risk in this case. While this settles the question (in an asymptotic sense) from a minimax point of view, it would be preferable to have a prescription that is adaptive to the distribution of the entries of ?0 and to the noise level. Our starting point is the asymptotic results of [DMM09, DMM11, BM12a, BM12b]. These provide a construction of an unbiased pseudo-data ?bu that is asymptotically Gaussian with mean ?0 . The LASSO estimator ?b is obtained by applying a denoiser function to ?bu . We then use Stein?s Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE) [Ste81] to derive an expression for the `2 risk (mean squared error) of this operation. What results is an expression for the mean squared error of the LASSO that only depends on the observed data y and X. Finally, by modifying this formula we obtain an estimator for the noise level. We prove that these estimators are asymptotically consistent for sequences of design matrices X with converging aspect ratio and iid Gaussian entries. We expect that the consistency holds far beyond this case. In particular, for the case of general Gaussian design matrices, consistency holds conditionally on a conjectured formula stated in [JM13] on the basis of the ?replica method? from statistical physics. For the sake of concreteness, let us briefly describe our method in the case of standard Gaussian design that is when the design matrix X has iid Gaussian entries. We construct the unbiased pseudodata vector by b b 0] . ?bu = ?b + X T (y ? X ?)/[n ? k?k (1.3) Our estimator of the mean squared error is derived from applying SURE to unbiased pseudo-data. b X, ?, ?b) where In particular, our estimator is R(y,   .  b 0 /p ? 1 + kX T (y ? X ?)k b 2 p(n ? k?k b 0 )2 b X, ?, ? ) ? ? 2 2k?k R(y, (1.4) 2 b X, y) is the LASSO estimator and ?b = ky ? X ?k b 2 /[n ? k?k b 0 ]. Here ?(?; Our estimator of the noise level is b X, ?, ?b )/? ? b2 /n = ?b2 ? R(y, where ? = n/p. Although our rigorous results are asymptotic in the problem dimensions, we show through numerical simulations that they are accurate already on problems with a few thousands of 1 2 The probability distribution that puts a point mass 1/p at each ? of the p entries of the vector. Note that our definition of noise level ? corresponds to ? n in most of the compressed sensing literature. 2 MSE Estimation Noise Level Estimation Results in a Single Run ? Estimated MSE True MSE 0.6 ? 90% Confidence Bands Estimated MSE True MSE 0.3 Asymptotics Asymptotic MSE AMP.LASSO N.LASSO PMLE RCV.LASSO SCALED.LASSO TRUE x 0.4 ^2 n ? MSE 0.2 ? 0.2 ? 0.1 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 ? 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 ? 1.5 2.0 Figure 1: Red color represents the estimated values by our estimators and green color represents the true values to be estimated. Left: MSE versus regularization parameter ?. Here, ? = 0.5, ? 2 /n = 0.2, X ? Rn?p with iid N1 (0, 1) entries where n = 4000. Right: ? ? 2 /n versus ?. Comparison of different estimators of ? 2 under the same model parameters. Scaled Lasso?s prescribed choice of (?, ? ? 2 /n) is marked with a bold x. variables. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for estimating the LASSO mean square error solely based on data. We compare our approach with earlier work on the estimation of the noise level. The authors of [NSvdG10] target this problem by using a `1 -penalized maximum log-likelihood estimator (PMLE) and a related method called ?Scaled Lasso? [SZ12] (also studied by [BC13]) considers an iterative algorithm to jointly estimate the noise level and ?0 . Moreover, authors of [FGH12] developed a refitted cross-validation (RCV) procedure for the same task. Under some conditions, the aforementioned studies provide consistency results for their noise level estimators. We compare our estimator with these methods through extensive numerical simulations. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In order to motivate our theoretical work, we start with numerical simulations in Section 2. The necessary background on SURE and asymptotic distributional characterization of the LASSO is presented in Section 3. Finally, our main theoretical results can be found in Section 4. 2 Simulation Results In this section, we validate the accuracy of our estimators through numerical simulations. We also analyze the behavior of our variance estimator as ? varies, along with four other methods. Two of these methods rely on the minimization problem,   ky ? X?k22 k?k1 b? (?, b) = argmin?,? + h2 (?) + ? 3 , 2nh1 (?) 2 h3 (?) where for PMLE h1 (?) = ? 2 , h2 (?) = log(?), h3 (?) = ? and for the Scaled Lasso h1 (?) = ?, h2 (?) = ?/2, and h3 (?) = 1. The third method is a na??ve procedure that estimates the variance in two steps: (i) use the LASSO to determine the relevant variables; (ii) apply ordinary least squares on the selected variables to estimate the variance. The fourth method is Refitted Cross-Validation (RCV) by [FGH12] which also has two-stages. RCV requires sure screening property that is the model selected in its first stage includes all the relevant variables. Note that this requirement may not be satisfied for many values of ?. In our implementation of RCV, we used the LASSO for variable selection. In our simulation studies, we used the LASSO solver l1 ls [SJKG07]. We simulated across 50 replications within each, we generated a new Gaussian design matrix X. We solved for LASSO over 20 equidistant ??s in the interval [0.1, 2]. For each ?, a new signal ?0 and noise independent from X were generated. 3 MSE Estimation Noise Level Estimation Results in a Single Run ? Estimated MSE True MSE 0.6 ? 90% Confidence Bands Estimated MSE True MSE 0.3 Asymptotics Asymptotic MSE AMP.LASSO N.LASSO PMLE RCV.LASSO SCALED.LASSO TRUE x 0.4 ^2 n ? MSE 0.2 ? 0.2 ? ? ? 0.1 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 ? 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 ? 1.5 2.0 Figure 2: Red color represents the estimated values by our estimators and green color represents the true values to be estimated. Left: MSE versus regularization parameter ?. Here, ? = 0.5, ? 2 /n = 0.2, rows of X ? Rn?p are iid from Np (0, ?) where n = 5000 and ? has entries 1 on the main diagonal, 0.4 on above and below the main diagonal. Right: Comparison of different estimators of ? 2 /n. Parameter values are the same as in Figure 1. Scaled Lasso?s prescribed choice of (?, ? ? 2 /n) is marked with a bold x. The results are demonstrated in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 is obtained using n = 4000, ? = 0.5 and ? 2 /n = 0.2. The coordinates of true signal independently get values 0, 1, ?1 with probabilities 0.9, iid 0.05, 0.05 respectively. For each replication, we used a design matrix X where Xi,j ? N1 (0, 1). Figure 2 is obtained with n = 5000 and same values of ? and ? 2 as in Figure 1. The coordinates of true signal independently get values 0, 1, ?1 with probabilities 0.9, 0.05, 0.05 respectively. For each replication, we used a design matrix X where each row is independently generated through Np (0, ?) where ? has 1 on the main diagonal and 0.4 above and below the diagonal. As can be seen from the figures, the asymptotic theory applies quite well to the finite dimensional data. We refer reader to [BEM13] for a more detailed simulation analysis. 3 3.1 Background and Notations Preliminaries and Definitions First, we need to provide a brief introduction to approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm suggested by [DMM09] and its connection to LASSO (see [DMM09, BM12b] for more details). For an appropriate sequence of non-linear denoisers {?t }t?0 , the AMP algorithm constructs a sequence of estimates {?t }t?0 , pseudo-data {y t }t?0 , and residuals {t }t?0 where ?t , yt ? Rp and t ? Rn . These sequences are generated according to the iteration 1 ?t+1 = ?t (y t ) , y t = ?t + X T t /n , t = y ? X?t + t?1 ?t0 (y t?1 ) , (3.1) ? where ? ? n/p and the algorithm is initialized with ?0 = 0 = 0 ? Rp . In addition, each denoiser ?t (?) is a separable function and its derivative is denoted by ?t0 ( ? ). Given a scalar function f and a m vector u ? Rm , we let f (u) denote by applying f Pmthe vector (f (u1 ), . . . , f (um )) ? R obtained ?1 m component-wise and hui ? m u is the average of the vector u ? R . i i=1 Next, consider the state evolution for the AMP algorithm. For the random variable ?0 ? p?0 , a positive constant ? 2 and a given sequence of non-linear denoisers {?t }t?0 , define the sequence {?t2 }t?0 iteratively by 1 2 ?t+1 = Ft (?t2 ) , Ft (? 2 ) ? ? 2 + E{ [?t (?0 + ? Z) ? ?0 ]2 } , (3.2) ? 2 2 2 where ?0 = ? + E{?0 }/? and Z ? N1 (0, 1) is independent of ?0 . From Eq. 3.2, it is apparent that the function Ft depends on the distribution of ?0 . It is shown in [BM12a] that the pseudo-data 4 y t has the same asymptotic distribution as ?0 + ?t Z. This result can be roughly interpreted as the pseudo-data generated by AMP is the summation of the true signal and a normally distributed noise which has zero mean. Its variance is determined by the state evolution. In other words, each iteration produces a pseudo-data that is distributed normally around the true signal, i.e. yit ? ?0,i +N1 (0, ?t2 ). The importance of this result will appear later when we use Stein?s method in order to obtain an estimator for the MSE and the variance of the noise. We will use state evolution in order to describe the behavior of a specific type of converging sequence defined as the following: Definition 1. The sequence of instances {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N indexed by n is said to be a converging sequence if ?0 (n) ? Rp , X(n) ? Rn?p , ? 2 (n) ? R and p = p(n) is such that n/p ? ? ? (0, ?), ? 2 (n)/n ? ?02 for some ?0 ? R and in addition the following conditions hold: to a probability measure (a) The empirical distribution of {?0,i (n)}pi=1 , converges in distribution Pp p?0 on R with bounded 2nd moment. Further, as n ? ?, p?1 i=1 ?0,i (n)2 ? Ep?0 {?20 }. (b) If {ei }1?i?p ? Rp denotes the standard basis, then n?1/2 maxi?[p] kX(n)ei k2 ? 1, n?1/2 mini?[p] kX(n)ei k2 ? 1, as n ? ? with [p] ? {1, . . . , p}. We provide rigorous results for the special class of converging sequences when entries of X are iid N1 (0, 1) (i.e., standard gaussian design model). We also provide results (assuming Conjecture 4.4 is correct) when rows of X are iid multivariate normal Np (0, ?) (i.e., general gaussian design model). In order to discuss the LASSO connection for the AMP algorithm, we need to use a specific class of denoisers and apply an appropriate calibration to the state evolution. Here, we provide briefly how this can be done and we refer the reader to [BEM13] for a detailed discussion. Denote by ? : R ? R+ ? R the soft thresholding denoiser where ( x ? ? if x > ? 0 if ?? ? x ? ? . ?(x; ?) = x + ? if x < ?? Also, denote by ? 0 ( ? ; ? ), the derivative of the soft-thresholding function with respect to its first argument. We will use the AMP algorithm with the soft-thresholding denoiser ?t ( ? ) = ?( ? ; ?t ) along with a suitable sequence of thresholds {?t }t?0 in order to obtain a connection to the LASSO. Let ? > 0 be a constant and at every iteration t, choose the threshold ?t = ??t . It was shown in [DMM09] and [BM12b] that the state evolution has a unique fixed point ?? = limt?? ?t , and there exists a mapping ? 7? ?? (?), between those two parameters. Further, it was shown that a function ? 7? ?(?) with domain (?min (?), ?) for some constant ?min , and given by  1  ?(?) ? ??? 1 ? E ? 0 (?0 + ?? Z; ??? ) , ? admits a well-defined continuous and non-decreasing inverse ? : (0, ?) ? (?min , ?). In particular, the functions ? 7? ?(?) and ? 7? ?? (?) provide a calibration between the AMP algorithm and the LASSO where ? is the regularization parameter. 3.2 Distributional Results for the LASSO We will proceed by stating a distributional result on LASSO which was established in [BM12b]. Theorem 3.1. Let {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N be a converging sequence of instances of the standard b ?) and the unbiased pseudoGaussian design model. Denote the LASSO estimator of ?0 (n) by ?(n, u T b b b b 0 ]. data generated by LASSO by ? (n, ?) ? ? + X (y ? X ?)/[n ? k?k p u b Then, as n ? ?, the empirical distribution of {?i , ?0,i }i=1 converges weakly to the joint distribution of (?0 + ?? Z, ?0 ) where ?0 ? p?0 , ?? = ?? (?(?)), Z ? N1 (0, 1) and ?0 and Z are independent random variables. The above theorem combined with the stationarity condition of the LASSO implies that the empiri- cal distribution of {?bi , ?0,i }pi=1 converges weakly to the joint distribution of ?(?0 + ?? Z; ?? ), ?0 5 where ?? = ?(?)?? (?(?)). It is also important to emphasize a relation between the asymptotic MSE, ??2 and the model variance. By Theorem 3.1 and the state evolution recursion, almost surely, h i 2 lim k?b ? ?0 k22 /p = E [?(?0 + ?? Z; ?? ) ? ?0 ] = ?(??2 ? ?02 ) , (3.3) p?? which will be helpful to get an estimator for the noise level. 3.3 Stein?s Unbiased Risk Estimator In [Ste81], Stein proposed a method to estimate the risk of an almost arbitrary estimator of the mean of a multivariate normal vector. A generalized form of his method can be stated as the following. Proposition 3.2. [Ste81]&[Joh12] Let x, ? ? Rn and V ? Rn?n be such that x ? Nn (?, V ). Suppose that ? ?(x) ? Rn is an estimator of ? for which ? ?(x) = x + g(x) and that g : Rn ? Rn is weakly differentiable and that ?i, j ? [n], E? [|xi gi (x)| + |xj gj (x)|] < ? where ? is the measure corresponding to the multivariate Gaussian distribution Nn (?, V ). Define the functional S(x, ? ?) ? Tr(V ) + 2Tr(V Dg(x)) + kg(x)k22 , where Dg is the vector derivative. S(x, ? ?) is an unbiased estimator of the risk, i.e. E? k? ?(x) ? ?k22 = E? [S(x, ? ?)]. In the literature of statistics, the above estimator is called ?Stein?s Unbiased Risk Estimator? or SURE. The following remark will be helpful to build intuition about our approach. Remark 1. If we consider the risk of soft thresholding estimator ?(xi ; ?) for ?i when xi ? N1 (?i , ? 2 ) for i ? [m], the above formula suggests the functional m m S(x, ?( ? ; ?)) 2? 2 X 1 X 2 = ?2 ? 1{|xi |??} + [min{|xi |, ?}] , m m i=1 m i=1 as an estimator of the corresponding MSE. 4 4.1 Main Results Standard Gaussian Design Model We start by defining two estimators that are motivated by Proposition 3.2. Definition 2. Define b? (x, ? ) ? ?? 2 + 2? 2 h? 0 (x)i + h (?(x) ? x)2 i , R where x ? Rm , ? ? R+ , and ? : R ? R is a suitable non-linear function. Also for y ? Rn and b X, ?, ? ), the estimator of the mean squared error of LASSO where X ? Rn?p denote by R(y, T 2 b 2 b 0 ? p) + kX (y ? X ?)k2 . b X, ?, ? ) ? ? (2k?k R(y, b 0 )2 p p(n ? k?k b X, ?, ? ) is just a special case of R b? (x, ? ) when x = ?bu and ?( ? ) = Remark 2. Note that R(y, b 0 /p). ?( ? ; ? ) for ? = ?/(1 ? k?k We are now ready to state the following theorem on the asymptotic MSE of the AMP: Theorem 4.1. Let {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N be a converging sequence of instances of the standard Gaussian design model. Denote the sequence of estimators of ?0 (n) by {?t (n)}t?0 , the pseudodata by {y t (n)}t?0 , and residuals by {t (n)}t?0 produced by AMP algorithm using the sequence of Lipschitz continuous functions {?t }t?0 as in Eq. 3.1. Then, as n ? ?, the mean squared error of the AMP algorithm at iteration t + 1 has the same limit b? (y t , ?b) where ?bt = kt k2 /?n. More precisely, with probability one, as R t b? (y t , ?bt ) . lim k?t+1 ? ?0 k22 /p(n) = lim R t n?? n?? (4.1) b? (y t , ?bt ) is a consistent estimator of the asymptotic mean squared error of the In other words, R t AMP algorithm at iteration t + 1. 6 The above theorem allows us to accurately predict how far the AMP estimate is from the true signal at iteration t + 1 and this can be utilized as a stopping rule for the AMP algorithm. Note that it was shown in [BM12b] that the left hand side of Eq. (4.1) is E[(?t (?0 + ?t Z) ? ?0 )2 ]. Combining this with the above theorem, we easily obtain, b? (y t , ?bt ) = E[(?t (?0 + ?t Z) ? ?0 )2 ] . lim R t n?? We state the following version of Theorem 4.1 for the LASSO. Theorem 4.2. Let {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N be a converging sequence of instances of the standard b ?). Then with probability Gaussian design model. Denote the LASSO estimator of ?0 (n) by ?(n, one, b X, ?, ?b) , lim k?b ? ?0 k2 /p(n) = lim R(y, n?? 2 n?? b 2 /[n ? k?k b 0 ]. In other words, R(y, b X, ?, ?b) is a consistent estimator of the where ?b = ky ? X ?k asymptotic mean squared error of the LASSO. Note that Theorem 4.2 enables us to assess the quality of the LASSO estimation without knowing the true signal itself or the noise (or their distribution). The following corollary can be shown using the above theorem and Eq. 3.3. Corollary 4.3. In the standard Gaussian design model, the variance of the noise can be accurately b X, ?, ?b)/? where ? = n/p and other variables are defined as in estimated by ? b2 /n ? ?b2 ? R(y, Theorem 4.2. In other words, we have lim ? ? 2 /n = ?02 , n?? (4.2) almost surely, providing us a consistent estimator for the variance of the noise in the LASSO. Remark 3. Theorems 4.1 and 4.2 provide a rigorous method for selecting the regularization parameter optimally. Also, note that obtaining the expression in Theorem 4.2 only requires solving one solution path to LASSO problem versus k solution paths required by k-fold cross-validation methods. Additionally, using the exponential convergence of AMP algorithm for the standard gaussian design model, proved by [BM12b], one can use O(log(1/)) iterations of AMP algorithm and Theorem 4.1 to obtain the solution path with an additional error up to O(). 4.2 General Gaussian Design Model In Section 4.1, we devised our estimators based on the standard Gaussian design model. Motivated by Theorem 4.2, we state the following conjecture of [JM13]. Let {?(n)}n?N be a sequence of inverse covariance matrices. Define the general Gaussian design model by the converging sequence of instances {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N where for each n, rows of design matrix X(n) are iid multivariate Gaussian, i.e. Np (0, ?(n)?1 ). Conjecture 4.4 ([JM13]). Let {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N be a converging sequence of instances under the general Gaussian design model with a sequence of proper inverse covariance matrices {?(n)}n?N . Assume that the empirical distribution of {(?0,i , ?ii }pi=1 converges weakly to b ?) the distribution of a random vector (?0 , ?). Denote the LASSO estimator of ?0 (n) by ?(n, u T b b b b and the LASSO pseudo-data by ? (n, ?) ? ? + ?X (y ? X ?)/[n ? k?k0 ]. Then, for some ? ? R, the empirical distribution of {?0,i , ?biu , ?ii } converges weakly to the joint distribution of (?0 , ?0 + ? ?1/2 Z, ?), where Z ? N1 (0, 1), and (?0 , ?) are independent random variables. Furb b 0 ] converges weakly to N(0, ? 2 ). ther, the empirical distribution of (y ? X ?)/[n ? k?k A heuristic justification of this conjecture using the replica method from statistical physics is offered in [JM13]. Using the above conjecture, we define the following generalized estimator of the linearly transformed risk under the general Gaussian design model. The construction of the estimator is essentially the same as before i.e. apply SURE to unbiased pseudo-data. 7 Definition 3. For an inverse covariance matrix ? and a suitable matrix V ? Rp?p , let W = V ?V T and define an estimator of kV (?b ? ?)k22 /p as 2 b ? (y, X, ?, ?, V ) = ? ? p    kV ?X T (y ? X ?)k b 2 2 ?1 Tr (WSS ) ? Tr (WS?S? ) ? 2Tr WSS ? ? + ? ? S ?S ? SS b 0 )2 p(n ? k?k where y ? Rn and X ? Rn?p denote the linear observations and the design matrix, respectively. b ?) is the LASSO solution for penalty level ? and ? is a real number. S ? [p] is the Further, ?(n, support of ?b and S? is [p] \ S. Finally, for a p ? p matrix M and subsets D, E of [p] the notation MDE refers to the |D| ? |E| sub-matrix of M obtained by intersection of rows with indices from D and columns with indices from E. Derivation of the above formula is rather complicated and we refer the reader to [BEM13] for a detailed argument. A notable case, when V = I, corresponds to the mean squared error of LASSO b X, ?, ? ) is just a special case of the estimator for the general Gaussian design and the estimator R(y, b b I (y, X, ?, ?, I) = R(y, b X, ?, ? ). ?? (y, X, ?, ?, V ). That is, when V = ? = I, we have ? Now, we state the following analog of Theorem 4.2. Theorem 4.5. Let {?0 (n), X(n), ? 2 (n)}n?N be a converging sequence of instances of the general Gaussian design model with the inverse covariance matrices {?(n)}n?N . Denote the LASSO estib ?). If Conjecture 4.4 holds, then, with probability one, mator of ?0 (n) by ?(n, b ? (y, X, ?b, ?, I) lim k?b ? ?0 k22 /p(n) = lim ? n?? n?? b 2 /[n ? k?k b 0 ]. In other words, ? b ? (y, X, ?b, ?, I) is a consistent estimator of the where ?b = ky ? X ?k asymptotic MSE of the LASSO. We will assume that a similar state evolution holds for the general design. In fact, for the general case, replica method suggests the relation 1 lim k?? 2 (?b ? ?)k22 /p(n) = ?(? 2 ? ?02 ). n?? Hence motivated by the Corollary 4.3, we state the following result on the general Gaussian design model. Corollary 4.6. Assume that Conjecture 4.4 holds. In the general Gaussian design model, the variance of the noise can be accurately estimated by 1 b ? (y, X, ?b, ?, ?? 2 )/? , ? ? 2 (n, ?)/n ? ?b2 ? ? where ? = n/p and other variables are defined as in Theorem 4.5. Also, we have lim ? ? 2 /n = ?02 , n?? almost surely, providing us a consistent estimator for the noise level in LASSO. Corollary 4.6, extends the results stated in Corollary 4.3 to the general Gaussian design matrices. The derivation of formulas in Theorem 4.5 and Corollary 4.6 follows similar arguments as in the standard Gaussian design model. In particular, they are obtained by applying SURE to the distributional result of Conjecture 4.4 and using the stationary condition of the LASSO. 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A Graphical Transformation for Belief Propagation: Maximum Weight Matchings and Odd-Sized Cycles Jinwoo Shin Andrew E. Gelfand ? Department of Electrical Engineering Department of Computer Science Theoretical Division & Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology University of California, Irvine Center for Nonlinear Studies Daejeon, 305-701, Republic of Korea Irvine, CA 92697-3435, USA Los Alamos National Laboratory [email protected] [email protected] Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA Michael Chertkov [email protected] Abstract Max-product ?belief propagation? (BP) is a popular distributed heuristic for finding the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) assignment in a joint probability distribution represented by a Graphical Model (GM). It was recently shown that BP converges to the correct MAP assignment for a class of loopy GMs with the following common feature: the Linear Programming (LP) relaxation to the MAP problem is tight (has no integrality gap). Unfortunately, tightness of the LP relaxation does not, in general, guarantee convergence and correctness of the BP algorithm. The failure of BP in such cases motivates reverse engineering a solution ? namely, given a tight LP, can we design a ?good? BP algorithm. In this paper, we design a BP algorithm for the Maximum Weight Matching (MWM) problem over general graphs. We prove that the algorithm converges to the correct optimum if the respective LP relaxation, which may include inequalities associated with non-intersecting odd-sized cycles, is tight. The most significant part of our approach is the introduction of a novel graph transformation designed to force convergence of BP. Our theoretical result suggests an efficient BP-based heuristic for the MWM problem, which consists of making sequential, ?cutting plane?, modifications to the underlying GM. Our experiments show that this heuristic performs as well as traditional cutting-plane algorithms using LP solvers on MWM problems. 1 Introduction Graphical Models (GMs) provide a useful representation for reasoning in a range of scientific fields [1, 2, 3, 4]. Such models use a graph structure to encode the joint probability distribution, where vertices correspond to random variables and edges (or lack of thereof) specify conditional dependencies. An important inference task in many applications involving GMs is to find the most likely assignment to the variables in a GM - the maximum a posteriori (MAP) configuration. Belief Propagation (BP) is a popular algorithm for approximately solving the MAP inference problem. BP is an iterative, message passing algorithm that is exact on tree structured GMs. However, BP often shows remarkably strong heuristic performance beyond trees, i.e. on GMs with loops. Distributed implementation, associated ease of programming and strong parallelization potential are among the main reasons for the popularity of the BP algorithm, e.g., see the parallel implementations of [5, 6]. The convergence and correctness of BP was recently established for a certain class of loopy GM formulations of several classic combinatorial optimization problems, including matchings [7, 8, 9], perfect matchings [10], independent sets [11] and network flows [12]. The important common ? Also at Theoretical Division of Los Alamos National Lab. 1 feature of these instances is that BP converges to a correct MAP assignment when the Linear Programming (LP) relaxation of the MAP inference problem is tight, i.e., it shows no integrality gap. While this demonstrates that LP tightness is necessary for the convergence and correctness of BP, it is unfortunately not sufficient in general. In other words, BP may not work even when the corresponding LP relaxation to the MAP inference problem is tight. This motivates a quest for improving BP-based MAP solvers so that they work when the LP is tight. In this paper, we consider a specific class of GMs corresponding to the Maximum Weight Matching (MWM) problem and study if BP can be used as an iterative, message passing-based LP solver when the MWM LP (relaxation) is tight. It was recently shown [15] that a MWM can be found in polynomial time by solving a carefully chosen sequence of LP relaxations, where the sequence of LPs are formed by adding and removing sets of so-called ?blossom? inequalities [13] to the base LP relaxation. Utilizing successive LP relaxations to solve the MWM problem is an example of the popular cutting plane method for solving combinatorial optimization problems [14]. While the approach in [15] is remarkable in that one needs only a polynomial number of ?cut? inequalities, it unfortunately requires solving an emerging sequence of LPs via traditional, centralized methods (e.g., ellipsoid, interior-point or simplex) that may not be practical for large-scale problems. This motivates our search for an efficient and distributed BP-based LP solver for this class of problems. Our work builds upon that of Sanghavi, Malioutov and Willsky [8], who studied BP for the GM formulation of the MWM problem on an arbitrary graph. The authors showed that max-product BP converges to the correct, MAP solution if the base LP relaxation with no blossom - referred to herein as MWM-LP - is tight. Unfortunately, the tightness is not guaranteed in general, and the convergence and correctness for max-product BP do not readily extend to a GM with blossom constraints. To resolve this issue, we propose a novel GM formulation of the MWM problem and show that maxproduct BP on this new GM converges to the MWM assignment as long as the MWM-LP relaxation with blossom constraints is tight. The only restriction placed on our GM construction is that the set of blossom constraints added to the base MWM-LP be non-intersecting (in edges). Our GM construction is motivated by the so-called ?degree-two? (DT) condition, which requires that every variable in the GM be associated to at most two factor functions. The DT condition is necessary for analysis of BP using the computational tree technique, developed and advanced in [7, 8, 12, 16, 18, 19]. Note, that the DT condition is not satisfied by the standard MWM GM formulation, and hence, we design a new GM that satisfies the DT condition via a clever graphical transformation namely, collapsing odd-sized cycles and defining new weights on the contracted graph. Importantly, the MAP assignments of the two GMs are in one-to-one correspondence guaranteeing that a solution to the original problem can be recovered. Our theoretical result suggests a cutting-plane approach to the MWM problem, where BP is used as the LP solver. In particular, we examine the BP solution to identify odd-sized cycle constraints - ?cuts? - to add to the MWM-LP relaxation; then construct a new GM using our graphical transformation, run BP and repeat. We evaluate this heuristic empirically and show that its performance is close to a traditional cutting-plane approach employing an LP solver rather than BP. Finally, we note that the DT condition may neither be sufficient nor necessary for BP to work. It was necessary, however, to provide theoretical guarantees for the special class of GMs considered. To our knowledge, our result is the first to suggest how to ?fix? BP via a graph transformation so that it works properly, i.e., recovers the desired LP solution. We believe that our success in crafting a graphical transformation will offer useful insight into the design and analysis of BP algorithms for a wider class of problems. Organization. In Section 2, we introduce a standard GM formulation of the MWM problem as well as the corresponding BP and LP. In Section 3, we introduce our new GM and describe performance guarantees of the respective BP algorithm. In Section 4, we describe a cutting-plane(-like) method using BP for the MWM problem and show its empirical performance for random MWM instances. 2 2 Preliminaries 2.1 Graphical Model for Maximum Weight Matchings A joint distribution of n (discrete) random variables Z = [Zi ] ? ?n is called a Graphical Model (GM) if it factorizes as follows: for z = [zi ] ? ?n , Y Pr[Z = z] ? ?? (z? ), (1) ??F where F is a collection of subsets of ?, z? = [zi : i ? ? ? ?] is a subset of variables, and ?? is some (given) non-negative function. The function ?? is called a factor (variable) function if |?| ? 2 (|?| = 1). For variable functions ?? with ? = {i}, we simply write ?? = ?i . One calls z a valid assignment if Pr[Z = z] > 0. The MAP assignment z ? is defined as z ? = arg maxn Pr[Z = z]. z?? Let us introduce the Maximum Weight Matching (MWM) problem and its related GM. Suppose we are given an undirected graph G = (V, E) with weights {we : e ? E} assigned to its edges. A matching is a set of edges without common vertices. The weight of a matching is the sum of corresponding edge weights. The MWM problem consists of finding a matching of maximum weight. Associate a binary random variable with each edge X = [Xe ] ? {0, 1}|E| and consider the probability distribution: for x = [xe ] ? {0, 1}|E| , Y Y Y Pr[X = x] ? ewe xe ?i (x) ?C (x), (2) e?E where ( P 1 if e??(i) xe ? 1 ?i (x) = 0 otherwise i?V C?C ( P 1 if e?E(C) xe ? ?C (x) = 0 otherwise and |C|?1 2 . Here C is a set of odd-sized cycles C ? 2V , ?(i) = {(i, j) ? E} and E(C) = {(i, j) ? E : i, j ? C}. Throughout the manuscript, we assume that cycles are non-intersecting in edges, i.e., E(C1 ) ? E(C2 ) = ? for all C1 , C2 ? C. It is easy to see that a MAP assignment x? for the GM (2) induces a MWM in G. We also assume that the MAP assignment is unique. 2.2 Belief Propagation and Linear Programming for Maximum Weight Matchings In this section, we introduce max-product Belief Propagation (BP) and the Linear Programming (LP) relaxation to computing the MAP assignment in (2). We first describe the BP algorithm for the general GM (1), then tailor the algorithm to the MWM GM (2). The BP algorithm updates the set of 2|?| messages {mt??i (zi ), mti?? (zi ) : zi ? ?} between every variable i and its associated factors ? ? Fi = {? ? F : i ? ?, |?| ? 2} using the following update rules: mt+1 ??i (zi ) = X Y ?? (z 0 ) z 0 :zi0 =zi mtj?? (zj0 ) mt+1 i?? (zi ) = ?i (zi ) and Y ?0 ?F j??\i m0??i (?) Here t denotes time and initially {mi?? (?), m??i (?))}, the BP (max-marginal) ni (zi ) = ?i (zi ) = m0i?? (?) beliefs {ni (zi )} Y ??Fi mt?0 ?i (zi ). i \? = 1. Given a set of messages are defined as follows: m??i (zi ). For the GM (2), we let nte (?) to denote the BP belief on edge e ? E at time t. The algorithm outputs |E| the MAP estimate at time t, xBP (t) = [xBP , using the using the beliefs and the rule: e (t)] ? [0, ?, 1] ? t t ? ?1 if ne (0) < ne (1) BP t xe (t) = ? if nij (0) = nte (1) . ? ?0 if nt (0) > nt (1) e e The LP relaxation to the MAP problem for the GM (2) is: C-LP : max X we xe e?E s.t. X e??(i) xe ? 1, ?i ? V, X e?E(C) 3 xe ? |C| ? 1 , 2 ?C ? C, xe ? [0, 1]. Observe that if the solution xC-LP to C-LP is integral, i.e., xC-LP ? {0, 1}|E| , then it is a MAP assignment, i.e., xC-LP = x? . Sanghavi, Malioutov and Willsky [8] proved the following theorem connecting the performance of BP and C-LP in a special case: Theorem 2.1. If C = ? and the solution of C-LP is integral and unique, then xBP (t) under the GM (2) converges to the MWM assignment x? . Adding small random component to every weight guarantees the uniqueness condition required by Theorem 2.1. A natural hope is that Theorem 2.1 extends to a non-empty C since adding more cycles can help to reduce the integrality gap of C-LP. However, the theorem does not hold when C 6= ?. For example, BP does not converge for a triangle graph with edge weights {2, 1, 1} and C consisting of the only cycle. This is true even though the solution to its C-LP is unique and integral. 3 A Graphical Transformation for Convergent & Correct BP The loss of convergence and correctness of BP when the MWM LP is tight (and unique) but C 6= ? motivates the work in this section. We resolve the issue by designing a new GM, equivalent to the original GM, such that when BP is run on this new GM it converges to the MAP/MWM assignment whenever the LP relaxation is tight and unique - even if C 6= ?. The new GM is defined on an auxiliary graph G0 = (V 0 , E 0 ) with new weights {we0 : e ? E 0 }, as follows: V 0 = V ? {iC : C ? C}, E 0 = E ? {(iC , j) : j ? V (C), C ? C} \ {e : e ? ?C?C E(C)} ( P 0 1 (?1)dC (j,e ) we0 if e = (iC , j) for some C ? C 0 we0 = 2 e ?E(C) . we otherwise Here dC (j, e) is the graph distance of j and e in cycle C = (j1 , j2 , . . . , jk ), e.g., if e = (j2 , j3 ), then dC (j1 , e) = 1. Figure 1: Example of original graph G (left) and new graph G0 (right) after collapsing cycle C = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). In the new graph G0 , edge weight w1C = 1/2(w12 ? w23 + w34 ? w45 + w15 ). Associate a binary variable with each new edge and consider the new probability distribution on 0 y = [ye : e ? E 0 ] ? {0, 1}|E | : Y 0 Y Y Pr[Y = y] ? ew e ye ?i (y) ?C (y), (3) e?E 0 i?V C?C where ?i (y) = ? ?1 if P ye ? 1 e??(i) ?0 otherwise ? P 0 if ye > |C| ? 1 ? ? ? e??(iC ) ? P ?C (y) = 0 if (?1)dC (j,e) yiC ,j ? / {0, 2} for some e ? E(C) . ? j?V (C) ? ? ? 1 otherwise It is not hard to check that the number of operations required to update messages at each round of BP under the above GM is O(|V ||E|), as messages updates involving factor ?C require solving a MWM problem on a simple cycle ? which can be done efficiently via dynamic programming in time O(|C|) ? and the summation of the numbers of edges of non-intersecting cycles is at most |E|. We are now ready to state the main result of this paper. Theorem 3.1. If the solution of C-LP is integral and unique, then the BP-MAP estimate y BP (t) under the GM (3) converges to the corresponding MAP assignment y ? . Furthermore, the MWM assignment x? is reconstructible from y ? as: ( P S 1 dC (j,e) ? yiC ,j if e ? C?C E(C) ? j?V (C) (?1) 2 . (4) xe = ye? otherwise 4 The proof of Theorem 3.1 is provided in the following sections. We also establish the convergence time of the BP algorithm under the GM (3) (see Lemma 3.2). We stress that the new GM (3) is designed so that each variable is associated to at most two factor nodes. We call this condition, which did not hold for the original GM (2), the ?degree-two? (DT) condition. The DT condition will play a critical role in the proof of Theorem 3.1. We further remark that even under the DT condition and given tightness/uniqueness of the LP, proving correctness and convergence of BP is still highly non trivial. In our case, it requires careful study of the computation tree induced by BP with appropriate truncations at its leaves. 3.1 Main Lemma for Proof of Theorem 3.1 Let us introduce the following auxiliary LP over the new graph and weights. C-LP0 : X max we0 ye e?E 0 s.t. X ye ? 1, ?i ? V, ?e ? E 0 , ye ? [0, 1], (5) e??(i) X (?1)dC (j,e) yiC ,j ? [0, 2], ?e ? E(C), j?V (C) X ye ? |C| ? 1, ?C ? C. (6) e??(iC ) Consider the following one-to-one linear mapping between x = [xe : e ? E] and y = [ye : e ? E 0 ]: (P ye = e0 ?E(C)??(i) xe0 xe if e = (i, iC ) otherwise ( P 1 2 xe = j?V (C) (?1) dC (j,e) yiC ,j ye S if e ? C?C E(C) . otherwise Under the mapping, one can check that C-LP = C-LP0 and if the solution xC-LP of C-LP is unique 0 0 and integral, the solution y C-LP of C-LP0 is as well, i.e., y C-LP = y ? . Hence, (4) in Theorem 3.1 follows. Furthermore, since the solution y ? = [ye? ] to C-LP0 is unique and integral, there exists c > 0 such that w0 ? (y ? ? y) c= inf , 0 ? y6=y :y is feasible to C-LP |y ? ? y| where w0 = [we0 ]. Using this notation, we establish the following lemma characterizing performance of the max-product BP over the new GM (3). Theorem 3.1 follows from this lemma directly. 0 0 Lemma 3.2. If the solution y C-LP of C-LP0 is integral and unique, i.e., y C-LP = y ? , then ? If ye? = 1, nte [1] > nte [0] for all t > 0 6wmax c + 6, ? If ye? = 0, nte [1] < nte [0] for all t > 0 6wmax c + 6, 0 where nte [?] denotes the BP belief of edge e at time t under the GM (3) and wmax = maxe?E 0 |we0 |. 3.2 Proof of Lemma 3.2 This section provides the complete proof of Lemma 3.2. We focus here on the case of ye? = 1, while translation of the result to the opposite case of ye? = 0 is straightforward. To derive a contradiction, assume that nte [1] ? nte [0] and construct a tree-structured GM Te (t) of depth t + 1, also known as the computational tree, using the following scheme: 0 1. Add a copy of Ye ? {0, 1} as the (root) variable (with variable function ewe Ye ). 2. Repeat the following t times for each leaf variable Ye on the current tree-structured GM. 2-1. For each i ? V such that e ? ?(i) and ?i is not associated to Ye of the current model, add ?i as a factor (function) with copies of {Ye0 ? {0, 1} : e0 ? ?(i) \ e} as child variables (with 0 corresponding variable functions, i.e., {ewe0 Ye0 }). 2-2. For each C ? C such that e ? ?(iC ) and ?C is not associated to Ye of the current model, add ?C as a factor (function) with copies of {Ye0 ? {0, 1} : e0 ? ?(iC ) \ e} as child variables (with 0 corresponding variable functions, i.e., {ewe0 Ye0 }). 5 It is known from [17] that there exists a MAP configuration y TMAP on Te (t) with yeTMAP = 0 at the root variable. Now we construct a new assignment y NEW on the computational tree Te (t) as follows. 1. Initially, set y NEW ? y TMAP and e is the root of the tree. 2. y NEW ? FLIPe (y NEW ). 3. For each child factor ?, which is equal to ?i (i.e., e ? ?(i)) or ?C (i.e., e ? ?(iC )), associated with e, (a) If ? is satisfied by y NEW and FLIPe (y ? ) (i.e., ?(y NEW ) = ?(FLIPe (y ? )) = 1), then do nothing. (b) Else if there exists a e?s child e0 through factor ? such that yeNEW 6= ye?0 and ? is satisfied by 0 FLIPe0 (y NEW ) and FLIPe0 (FLIPe (y ? )), then go to the step 2 with e ? e0 . (c) Otherwise, report ERROR. To aid readers understanding, we provide a figure describing an example of the above construction in our technical report [21]. In the construction, FLIPe (y) is the 0-1 vector made by flipping (i.e., changing from 0 to 1 or 1 to 0) the e?s position in y. We note that there exists exactly one child factor ? in step 3 and we only choose one child e0 in step (b) (even though there are many possible candidates). Due to this reason, flip operations induce a path structure P in tree Te (t).1 Now we state the following key lemma for the above construction of y NEW . Lemma 3.3. ERROR is never reported in the construction described above. Proof. The case when ? = ?i at the step 3 is easy, and we only provide the proof for the case when ? = ?C . We also assume that yeNEW is flipped as 1 ? 0 (i.e., ye? = 0), where the proof for the case 0 ? 1 follows in a similar manner. First, one can observe that y satisfies ?C if and only if y is the 0-1 indicator vector of a union of disjoint even paths in the cycle C. Since yeNEW is flipped as 1 ? 0, the even path including e is broken into an even (possibly, empty) path and an odd (always, non-empty) path. We consider two cases: (a) there exists e0 within the odd path (i.e., yeNEW = 1) 0 such that ye?0 = 0 and flipping yeNEW as 1 ? 0 broke the odd path into two even (disjoint) paths; (b) 0 there exists no such e0 within the odd path. For the first case (a), it is easy to see that we can maintain the structure of disjoint even paths in y NEW after flipping yeNEW as 1 ? 0, i.e., ? is satisfied by FLIPe0 (y NEW ). For the second case (b), 0 0 we choose e as a neighbor of the farthest end point (from e) in the odd path, i.e., yeNEW = 0 (before 0 flipping). Then, ye?0 = 1 since y ? satisfies factor ?C and induces a union of disjoint even paths in the cycle C. Therefore, if we flip yeNEW as 0 ? 1, then we can still maintain the structure of disjoint 0 even paths in y NEW , ? is satisfied by FLIPe0 (y NEW ). The proof for the case of the ? satisfied by FLIPe0 (FLIPe (y ? )) is similar. This completes the proof of Lemma 3.3. Due to how it is constructed y NEW is a valid configuration, i.e., it satisfies all the factor functions in Te (t). Hence, it suffices to prove that w0 (y NEW ) > w0 (y TMAP ), which contradicts to the assumption that y M AP is a MAP configuration on Te (t). To this end, for (i, j) ? E 0 , let n0?1 and n1?0 be the ij ij number of flip operations 0 ? 1 and 1 ? 0 for copies of (i, j) in the step 2 of the construction of Te (t). Then, one derives w0 (y NEW ) = w0 (y TMAP ) + w0 ? n0?1 ? w0 ? n1?0 , 1?0 where n0?1 = [n0?1 = [n1?0 ij ] and n ij ]. We consider two cases: (i) the path P does not arrive at a leave variable of Te (t), and (ii) otherwise. Note that the case (i) is possible only when the condition in the step (a) holds during the construction of y NEW . ? ? Case (i). In this case, we define yij := yij + ?(n1?0 ? n0?1 ij ij ), and establish the following lemma. Lemma 3.4. y ? is feasible to C-LP0 for small enough ? > 0. Proof. We have to show that y ? satisfies (5) and (6). Here, we prove that y ? satisfies (6) for small enough ? > 0, and the proof for (5) can be argued in a similar manner. To this end, for given C ? C, 1 P may not have an alternating structure since both yeNEW and its child yeNEW can be flipped in a same way. 0 6 we consider the following polytope PC : X yiC ,j ? |C| ? 1, yiC ,j ? [0, 1], X ?j ? C, j?V (C) (?1)dC (j,e) yiC ,j ? [0, 2], ?e ? E(C). j?V (C) ? We have to show that yC = [ye : e ? ?(iC )] is within the polytope. It is easy to see that the condition of the step (a) never holds if ? = ?C in the step 3. For the i-th copy of ?C in P ? Te (t), ? ? ? we set yC (i) = FLIPe0 (FLIPe (yC )) in the step (b), where yC (i) ? PC . Since the path P does not hit a leave variable of Te (t), we have  1 XN ? 1 ? yC (i) = yC + n1?0 ? n0?1 , C C i=1 N N PN ? where N is the number of copies of ?C in P ? Te (t). Furthermore, N1 i=1 yC (i) ? PC due to ? ? yC (i) ? PC . Therefore, yC ? PC if ? ? 1/N . This completes the proof of Lemma 3.4. The above lemma with w0 (y ? ) > w0 (y ? ) (due to the uniqueness of y ? ) implies that w0 ? n0?1 > w0 ? n1?0 , which leads to w0 (y NEW ) > w0 (y TMAP ). Case (ii). We consider the case when only one end of P hits a leave variable Ye of Te (t), where the proof of the other case follows in a similar manner. In this case, we define ? ? 1?0 0?1 yij := yij + ?(m1?0 ? m0?1 = [m1?0 = [m0?1 ij ij ), where m ij ] and m ij ] is constructed as follows: 1. Initially, set m1?0 , m0?1 by n1?0 , n0?1 . 2. If yeNEW is flipped as 1 ? 0 and it is associated to a cycle parent factor ?C for some C ? C, then decrease m1?0 by 1 and e by 1. is flipped from 1 ? 0, then decrease m1?0 2-1 If the parent yeNEW 0 e0 2-2 Else if there exists a ?brother? edge e00 ? ?(iC ) of e such that ye?00 = 1 and ?C is satisfied by FLIPe00 (FLIPe0 (y ? )), then increase m0?1 by 1. e00 2-3 Otherwise, report ERROR. 3. If yeNEW is flipped as 1 ? 0 and it is associated to a vertex parent factor ?i for some i ? V , then decrease m1?0 by 1. e 4. If yeNEW is flipped as 0 ? 1 and it is associated to a vertex parent factor ?i for some i ? V , then decrease by 1, where e0 ? ?(i) is the ?parent? edge of e, and m0?1 , m1?0 e e0 4-1 If the parent yeNEW is associated to a cycle parent factor ?C , 0 4-1-1 If the grad-parent yeNEW is flipped from 1 ? 0, then decrease m1?0 by 1. 00 e00 4-1-2 Else if there exists a ?brother? edge e000 ? ?(iC ) of e0 such that ye?000 = 1 and ?C is satisfied by FLIPe000 (FLIPe00 (y ? )), then increase m0?1 e000 by 1. 4-1-3 Otherwise, report ERROR. 4-2 Otherwise, do nothing. We establish the following lemmas. Lemma 3.5. ERROR is never reported in the above construction. Lemma 3.6. y ? is feasible to C-LP0 for small enough ? > 0. Proofs of Lemma 3.5 and Lemma 3.6 are analogous to those of Lemma 3.3 and Lemma 3.4, respectively. From Lemma 3.6, we have c ? ? w0 (m0?1 ? m1?0 ) w0 ? (y ? ? y ? ) ? ? ? |y ? y | ?(t ? 3)  ?  0 ? w0 (n0?1 ? n1?0 ) + 3wmax , ?(t ? 3) where |y ? ? y ? | ? ?(t ? 3) follows from the fact that P hits a leave variable of Te (t) and there are at most three increases or decreases in m0?1 and m1?0 in the above construction. Hence, 0 3wmax 0 w0 (n0?1 ? n1?0 ) ? c(t ? 3) ? 3wmax >0 if t > + 3, c 7 which implies w0 (y NEW ) > w0 (y TMAP ). If both ends of P hit leave variables of Te (t), we need 6w0 t > cmax + 6. This completes the proof of Lemma 3.2. 4 Cutting-Plane Algorithm using Belief Propagation In the previous section we established that BP on a carefully designed GM using non-intersecting odd-sized cycles solves the MWM problem when the corresponding MWM-LP relaxation is tight. However, finding a collection of odd-sized cycles to ensure tightness of the MWM-LP is a challenging task. In this section, we provide a heuristic algorithm which we call CP-BP (cutting-plane using BP) for this task. It consists of making sequential, ?cutting plane?, modifications to the underlying LP (and corresponding GM) using the output of the BP algorithm in the previous step. CP-BP is defined as follows: 1. Initialize C = ?. 2. Run BP on the GM in (3) for T iterations ? ? if nTe [1] > nTe [0] and nTe ?1 [1] > nTe ?1 [0] ?1 3. For each edge e ? E, set ye = 0 if nTe [1] < nTe [0] and nTe ?1 [1] < nTe ?1 [0] . ? ?1/2 otherwise 4. Compute x = [xe ] using y = [ye ] as per (4), and terminate if x ? / {0, 1/2, 1}|E| . 5. If there is no edge e with xe = 1/2, return x. Otherwise, add a non-intersecting odd-sized cycle of edges {e : xe = 1/2} to C and go to step 2; or terminate if no such cycle exists. In the above procedure, BP can be replaced by an LP solver to directly obtain x in step 4. This results in a traditional cutting-plane LP (CP-LP) method for the MWM problem [20]. The primary reason why we design CP-BP to terminate when x ? / {0, 1/2, 1}|E| is because the solution x of 2 C-LP is always half integral . Note that x ? / {0, 1/2, 1}|E| occurs when BP fails to find the solution to the current MWM-LP. We compare CP-BP and CP-LP in order to gauge the effectiveness of BP as an LP solver for MWM problems. We conducted experiments on two types of synthetically generated problems: 1) Sparse Graph instances; and 2) Triangulation instances. The sparse graph instances were generated by forming a complete graph on |V | = {50, 100} nodes and independently eliminating edges with probability p = {0.5, 0.9}. Integral weights, drawn uniformly in [1, 220 ], are assigned to the remaining edges. The triangulation instances were generated by randomly placing |V | = {100, 200} points in the 220 ? 220 square and computing a Delaunay triangulation on this set of points. Edge weights were set to the rounded Euclidean distance between two points. A set of 100 instances were generated for each setting of |V | and CP-BP was run for T = 100 iterations. The results are summarized in Table 1 and show that: 1) CP-BP is almost as good as CP-LP for solving the MWM problem; and 2) our graphical transformation allows BP to solve significantly more MWM problems than are solvable by BP run on the ?bare? LP without odd-sized cycles. 50 % sparse graphs |V | / |E| 50 / 490 100 / 1963 Algorithm CP-BP CP-LP # CP-BP 94 % 92 % # Tight LPs 65 % 48 % 90 % sparse graphs |V | / |E| 50 / 121 100 / 476 # CP-LP 98 % 95 % # CP-BP 90 % 63 % # Tight LPs 59 % 50 % # CP-LP 91 % 63 % Triangulation, |V | = 100, |E| = 285 Triangulation, |V | = 200, |E| = 583 # Correct / # Converged 33 / 36 34 / 100 # Correct / # Converged 11 / 12 15 / 100 Time (sec) 0.2 [0.0,0.4] 0.1 [0.0,0.3] Time (sec) 0.9 [0.2,2.5] 0.8 [0.3,1.6] Table 1: Evaluation of CP-BP and CP-LP on random MWM instances. Columns # CP-BP and # CP-LP indicate the percentage of instances in which the cutting plane methods found a MWM. The column # Tight LPs indicates the percentage for which the initial MWM-LP is tight (i.e. C = ?). # Correct and # Converged indicate the number of correct matchings and number of instances in which CP-BP converged upon termination, but we failed to find a non-intersecting odd-sized cycle. The Time column indicates the mean [min,max] time. 2 A proof of 12 -integrality, which we did not find in the literature, is presented in our technical report [21]. 8 References [1] J. Yedidia, W. Freeman, and Y. Weiss, ?Constructing free-energy approximations and generalized belief propagation algorithms,? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 51, no. 7, pp. 2282 ? 2312, 2005. [2] T. J. Richardson and R. L. Urbanke, Modern Coding Theory. 2008. Cambridge University Press, [3] M. Mezard and A. Montanari, Information, physics, and computation, ser. Oxford Graduate Texts. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 2009. [4] M. J. Wainwright and M. I. Jordan, ?Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference,? Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1?305, 2008. [5] J. Gonzalez, Y. Low, and C. Guestrin. ?Residual splash for optimally parallelizing belief propagation,? in International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2009. [6] Y. Low, J. Gonzalez, A. Kyrola, D. Bickson, C. Guestrin, and J. M. Hellerstein, ?GraphLab: A New Parallel Framework for Machine Learning,? in Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2010. [7] M. Bayati, D. Shah, and M. Sharma, ?Max-product for maximum weight matching: Convergence, correctness, and lp duality,? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 1241 ?1251, 2008. [8] S. Sanghavi, D. Malioutov, and A. Willsky, ?Linear Programming Analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation for Weighted Matching,? in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2007 [9] B. Huang, and T. Jebara, ?Loopy belief propagation for bipartite maximum weight b-matching,? in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2007. [10] M. Bayati, C. Borgs, J. Chayes, R. Zecchina, ?Belief-Propagation for Weighted b-Matchings on Arbitrary Graphs and its Relation to Linear Programs with Integer Solutions,? SIAM Journal in Discrete Math, vol. 25, pp. 989?1011, 2011. [11] S. Sanghavi, D. Shah, and A. Willsky, ?Message-passing for max-weight independent set,? in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2007. [12] D. Gamarnik, D. Shah, and Y. Wei, ?Belief propagation for min-cost network flow: convergence & correctness,? in SODA, pp. 279?292, 2010. [13] J. Edmonds, ?Paths, trees, and flowers?, Canadian Journal of Mathematics, vol. 3, pp. 449? 467, 1965. [14] G. Dantzig, R. Fulkerson, and S. Johnson, ?Solution of a large-scale traveling-salesman problem,? Operations Research, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 393?410, 1954. [15] K. Chandrasekaran, L. A. Vegh, and S. Vempala. ?The cutting plane method is polynomial for perfect matchings,? in Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2012 [16] R. G. Gallager, ?Low Density Parity Check Codes,? MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1963. [17] Y. Weiss, ?Belief propagation and revision in networks with loops,? MIT AI Laboratory, Technical Report 1616, 1997. [18] B. J. Frey, and R. Koetter, ?Exact inference using the attenuated max-product algorithm,? Advanced Mean Field Methods: Theory and Practice, ed. Manfred Opper and David Saad, MIT Press, 2000. [19] Y. Weiss, and W. T. Freeman, ?On the Optimality of Solutions of the MaxProduct BeliefPropagation Algorithm in Arbitrary Graphs,? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 736?744. 2001. [20] M. Grotschel, and O. Holland, ?Solving matching problems with linear programming,? Mathematical Programming, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 243?259. 1985. [21] J. Shin, A.E. Gelfand, and M. Chertkov, ?A Graphical Transformation for Belief Propagation: Maximum Weight Matchings and Odd-Sized Cycles,? arXiv preprint arXiv:1306.1167 (2013). 9
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Best-First Model Merging for Dynamic Learning and Recognition Stephen M. Omohundro International Computer Science Institute 1947 CenteJ' Street, Suite 600 Berkeley, California 94704 Abstract "Best-first model merging" is a general technique for dynamically choosing the structure of a neural or related architecture while avoiding overfitting. It is applicable to both leaming and recognition tasks and often generalizes significantly better than fixed structures. We demonstrate the approach applied to the tasks of choosing radial basis functions for function learning, choosing local affine models for curve and constraint surface modelling, and choosing the structure of a balltree or bumptree to maximize efficiency of access. 1 TOWARD MORE COGNITIVE LEARNING Standard backpropagation neural networks learn in a way which appears to be quite different from human leaming. Viewed as a cognitive system, a standard network always maintains a complete model of its domain. This model is mostly wrong initially, but gets gradually better and better as data appears. The net deals with all data in much the same way and has no representation for the strength of evidence behind a certain conclusion. The network architecture is usually chosen before any data is seen and the processing is much the same in the early phases of learning as in the late phases. Human and animalleaming appears to proceed in quite a different manner. When an organism has not had many experiences in a domain of importance to it, each individual experience is critical. Rather than use such an experience to slightly modify the parameters of a global model, a better strategy is to remember the experience in detail. Early in learning. an organism doesn't know which features of an experience are important unless it has a strong 958 Best-First Model Merging for Dynamic Learning and Recognition prior knowledge of the domain. Without such prior knowledgeJts best strategy is to generalize on the basis of a similarity measure to individual stored experiences. (Shepard, 1987) shows that there is a universal exponentially decaying form for this kind of similarity based generalization over a wide variety of sensory domains in several studied species. As experiences accumulate, the organism eventually gets enough data to reliably validate models from complex classes. At this point the animal need 00 longer remember individual experiences, but rather only the discovered generalities (eg. as rules). With such a strategy, it is possible for a system to maintain a measure of confidence in it its predictions while building ever more complex models of its environment. Systems based on these two types of learning have also appeared in the neural network, statistics and machine learning communities. In the learning literature one finds both "tablelookup" or "memory-based" methods and ''parameter-fitting" methods. In statistics the dislinction is made between "non-parametric" and "parametric" methods. Table-lookup methods work by storing examples and generalize to new situations on the basis of similarity to the old ones. Such methods are capable of one-shot learning and have a measure of the applicability of their knowledge to new situations but are limited in their generalization capability. Parameter fitting models choose the parameters of a predetermined model to best fit a set of examples. They usually take longer to train and are susceptible to computational difficulties such as local maxima but can potentially generalize better by extending the influence of examples over the whole space. Aside from computational difficulties, their fundamental problem is overfitting, ie. having insufficient data to validate a particular parameter setting as useful for generalization. 2 OVERFITTING IN LEARNING AND RECOGNITION There have been many recent results (eg. based on the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension) which identify the number of examples needed to validate choices made from specific parametric model families. We would like a learning system to be able to induce extremely complex models of the world but we don't want to have to present it with the enormous amount of data needed to validate such a model unless it is really needed. (Vapnik, 1982) proposes a technique for avoiding overfitling while allowing models of arbitrary complexity. The idea is to start with a nested familty of model spaces, whose members contain ever more complex models. When the system has only a small amount of data it can only validate models in in the smaller model classes. As more data arrives, however, the more complex classes may be considered. If at any point a fit is found to within desired tolerances, however, only the amount of data needed by the smallest class containing the chosen model is needed. Thus there is the potential for choosing complex models without penalizing situations in which the model is simple. The model merging approach may be viewed in these terms except that instead of a single nested family, there is a widely branching tree of model spaces. Like learning, recognition processes (visual, auditory, etc.) aim at constructing models from data. As such they are subject to the same considerations regarding overfitling. Figure 1 shows a perceptual example where a simpler model (a single segment) is perceptually chosen to explain the data (4 almost collinear dots) than a more complex model (two segments) which fits the data better. An intuitive explanations is that if the dots were generated by two segments, it would be an amazing coincidence that they are almost collinear, if it were generated by one, that fact is easily explained. Many of the Gestalt phenomena can be 959 960 Omohundro considered in the same tenns. Many of the processes used in recognition (eg. segmentation, grouping) have direct analogs in learning and vice versa. Is:. ? ? ? ? = _______ or Figure 1: An example of Occam's razor in recognition. There has been much recent interest in the network community in Bayesian methods for model selection while avoiding overfilling (eg. Buntine and Weigend, 1992 and MacKay 1992). Learning and recognition fit naturally together in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach makes explicit the need for a prior distribution. The posterior distribution generated by learning becomes the prior distribution for recognition. The model merging process described in this paper is applicable to both phases and the knowledge representation it suggests may be used for both processes as well. There are at least three properties of the world that may be encoded in a prior distribution and have a dramatic effect on learning and recognition and are essential to the model merging approach. The continuity prior is that the world is geometric and unless there is contrary data a system should prefer continuous models over discontinuous ones. This prior leads to a wide variety of what may be called "geometric learning algorithms.. (Omohundro, 1990). The sparseness prior is that the world is sparsely interacting. This says that probable models naturally decompose into components which only directly affect one another in a sparse manner. The primary origin of this prior is that physical objects usually only directly affect nearby objects in space and time. This prior is responsible for the success of representations such as Markov random fields and Bayesian networks which encode conditional independence relations. Even if the individual models consist of sparsely interacting components, it still might be that the data we receive for learning or recognition depends in an intricate way on all components. The locality prior prefers models in which the data decomposes into components which are directly affected by only a small number of model components. For example, in the learning setting only a small portion of the knowledge base will be relevant to any specific situation. In the recognition setting, an individual pixel is detennined by only a small number of objects in the scene. In geometric settings, a localized representation allows only a small number of model parameters to affect any individual prediction. 3 MODEL MERGING Based on the above considerations, an ideal learning or recognition system should model the world using a collection of sparsely connected, smoothly parameterized, localized models. This is an apt description of many of the neural network models currently in use. Bayesian methods provide an optimal means for induction with such a choice of prior over models but are computationally intractable in complex situations. We would therefore like to develop heuristic approaches which approximate the Bayesian solution and avoid overfitting. Based on the idealization of animal learning in the frrst section, we would like is a system which smoothly moves between a memory-based regime in which the models are the data into ever more complex parameterized models. Because of the locality prior, model Best-First Model Merging for Dynamic Learning and Recognition components only affect a subset of the data. We can therefore choose the complexity of components which are relevant to different portions of the data space according to the data which has been received there. This allows for reliably validated models of extremely high complexity in some regions of the space while other portions are modeled with low complexity. If only a small number of examples have been seen in some region, these are simply remembered and generalization is based on similarity. As more data arrives, if regularities are found and there is enough data present to justify them. more complex parameterized models are incorpoolted. There are many possible approaches to implementing such a strategy. We have investigated a particular heuristic which can be made computationally efficient and appears to work well in a variety of areas. The best-first model merging approach is applicable in a variety of situations in which complex models are constructed by combining simple ones. The idea is to improve a complex model by replacing two of its component models by a single model. This "merged" model may be in the same family as the original components. More interestingly. because the combined data from the merged components is used in determining the parameters of the merged model, it may come from a larger parameterized class. The critical idea is to never allow the system to hypothesize a model which is more complex than can be justified by the data it is based on. The "best-first" aspect is to always choose to merge the pair of models which decrease the likelihood of the data the least. The merging may be stopped according to a variety of criteria which are now applied to individual model components rather than the entire model. Examples of such criteria are those based on cross-validation, Bayesian Occam factors, VC bounds, etc. In experiments in a variety of domains, this approach does an excellent job of discovering regularities and allocating modelling resources efficiently. 3 MODEL MERGING VS. K?MEANS FOR RBF'S Our rust example is the problem of choosing centers in radial basis function networks for approximating functions. In the simplest approach, a radial basis function (eg. a Gaussian) is located at each training input location. The induced function is a linear combination of these basis functions which minimizes the mean square error of the training examples. Better models may be obtained by using fewer basis functions than data points. Most work on choosing the centers of these functions uses a clustering technique such as k-means (eg. Moody and Darken, 1989). This is reasonable because it puts the representational power of the model in the regions of highest density where errors are more critical. It ignores the structure of the modelled function, however. The model merging approach starts with a basis function at each training point and successively merges pairs which increase the training error the least. We compared this approach with the k-means approach in a variety of circumstances. Figure 2 shows an example where the function on the plane to be learned is a sigmoid in x centered at 0 and is constant in y. Thus the function varies most along the y axis. The data is drawn from a Gaussian distribution which is centered at (-.5,0). 21 training samples were drawn from this distribution and from these a radial basis function network with 6 Gaussian basis functions was learned. The X's in the figure show the centers chosen by k-means. As expected, they are clustered near the center fo the Gaussian source distribution. The triangles show the centers chosen by best-rust model merging. While there is some tendency to focus on the source center, there is also a tendency to represent the region where the modelled function varies the most. The training error is over 10 times less with model merging 961 962 Omohundro and the test error 00 an independent test set is about 3 times lower. These results were typical in variety of test runs. This simple example shows one way in which underlying structme is natmally discovered by the merging technique. 1.5 X 0.5 ? y (.. ..!.................._......... "'X;" ? ............\ ? ? ? A. X '.... ? x. "I. -0.5 Dots are training points Triangles are mm centers x's are k-means centers 21 samples, 6 centers RBF width .4 : Gaussian width .4 Gaussian center -.5 :, Sigmoid width .4 : A: : : .? ? >J A ??????...................._~~.!!!!n...???.... Sigmoid ? G ? ,." ~ ? ...????""???.......~..?...??????...???????????IIII.. X -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 x Figure 2: Radial basis function centers in two dimensions chosen by model merging and by k-means. The dots show the 21 training samples. The x's are the centers chosen by k-means, the triangles by model merging. The training error was .008098 for k-means and .000604 for model merging. The test error was .012463 for k-means and .004638 for model merging. 4 APPROXIMATING CURVES AND SURFACES As a second intuitive example, consider the problem of modelling a curve in the plane by a combination of straight line segments. The error function may be taken as the mean square error over each curve point to the nearest segment point A merging step in this case consists of replacing two segments by a single segment We always choose that pair such that the merged segment increases the emr the least. Figure 3 shows the approximations generated by this strategy. It does an excellent job at identifying the essentially linear portions of the curve and puts the boundaries between component models at the "comers". The corresponding "top-down" approach would start with a single segment and repeatedly split it This approach sometimes has to make decisions too early and often misses the comers in the curve. While not shown in the figure, as repeated mergings take place, more data is available for each segment This would allow us to use more complex models than linear segments such as Bezier curves. It is possible to reliably induce a representation which is linear in some portions and higher order in others. Such models potentially have many parameters and would be subject to overfitting if they were learned directly rather than by going through merge steps. Exactly the same strategy may be applied to modelling higher-dimensional constraint surfaces by hyperplanes or functions by piecewise linear portions. The model merging ap- Best-First Model Merging for Dynamic Learning and Recognition proach naturally complements the efficient mapping and constraint surface representations described in (Omohundro, 1991) based on bumptrees. Error=1 Error=2 Error=5 Error=10 Error=20 Figure 3: Approximation of a curve by best-rust merging of segment models. The top row shows the endpoints chosen by the algorithm at various levels of allowed error. The bottom row shows the corresponding approximation to the curve. Notice, in this example, that we need only consider merging neighboring segments as the increased error in merging non-adjoinging segments would be too great This imposes a locality on the problem which allows for extremely efficient computation. The idea is to maintain a priority queue with all potential merges on it ordered by the increase in error caused by the merge. This consists of only the neighboring pairs (of which there are n-l if there are n segments). The top pair on the queue is removed and the merge operation it represents is performed if it doesn't violate the stopping critera. The other potential merge pairs which incorporated the merged segments must be removed from the queue and the new possible mergings with the generated segment must be inserted (alternatively, nothing need be removed and each pair is checked for viability when it reaches the top of the queue). The neighborhood structure allows each of the operations to be performed quickly with the appropriate data structures and the entire merging process takes a time which is linear (or linear times logarithmic) in the number of component models. Complex timevarying curves may easily be processed in real time on typical workstations. In higher dimensions. hierarchical geometric data structures (as in Omohundro. 1987, 1990) allow a similar reduction in computation based on locality. 963 964 Omohundro S BALLTREE CONSTRUCTION The model merging approach is applicable to a wide variety of adaptive structures. The "balItree" structure described in (Omohundro. 1989) provides efficient access to regions in geometric spaces. It consists of a nested hiernrchy of hyper-balls surrounding given leaf balls and effICiently supports querries which test for intersection. inclusion. or nearness to a leaf ball. The balItree construction algorithm itself provides an example of a best-first merge approach in a higher dimensional space. To detennine the best hierarchy we can merge the leaf balls pairwise in such a way that the total volume of all the merged regions is as small as possible. The figure compares the quality of balltrees constructed using bestflJ'St merging to those constructed using top-down and incremental algorithms. As in other domains. the top-down approach has to make major decisions too early and often makes suboptimal choices. The merging approach only makes global decisions after many local decisions which adapt well to the structure. Balltree Error 1074.48 ,., 644.69 429.79 214.90 Iry 1\ 859.58 ,; I ". /.. ~ ~ J" i Top Down Construction "V Incremental Construction J - /" ;.st-filSt Merge Construction 0.00 l~~'~~~';-=-;:~::~:;~~ o 100 200 300 400 500 Number of Balls Figme 4: Balltree error as a function of number of balls for the top-down. incremental. and best-fust merging construction methods. Leaf balls have uniformly distributed centers in 5 dimensions with radii uniformly distributed less than .1. 6 CONCLUSION We have described a simple but powerful heuristic for dynamically building models for both learning and recognition which constructs complex models that adapt well to the underlying structure. We presented three different examples which only begin to touch on the possibilities. To hint at the broad applicability, we will briefly describe several other applications we are currently examining. In (Omohundro. 1991) we presented an efficient structure for modelling mappings based on a collection of local mapping models which were combined according to a partition of unity formed by "influence functions" associated with each model. This representation is very flexible and can be made computationally efficient. While in the experiments of that paper, the local models were affme functions (constant plus linear). they may be chosen from any desired class. The model merging approach builds such a mapping representation by successively merging models and replacing them with a new model whose influence Best-First Model Merging for Dynamic Learning and Recognition function extends over the range of the two original influence functions. Because it is based on more data, the new model can be chosen from a larger complexity class of functions than the originals. One of the most fundamental inductive tasks is density estimation. ie. estimating a probablity distribution from samples drawn from it. A powerful standard technique is adaptvie kernel estimation in which a nonnalized Gaussian (or other kernel) is placed at each sample point with a width determined by the local sample density (Devroye and Gyorfi. 1985). Model merging can be applied to improve the generalization performance of this approach by choosing successively more complex component densities once enough data has accumulated by merging. For example. consider a density supported on a curve in a high dimensi0l13l space. Initially the estimate will consist of radially-symmetric Gaussians at each sample point. After successive mergings, however, the one-dimensional linear structure can be discovered (and the Gaussian components be chosen from the larger class of extended Gaussians) and the generalization dramatically improVed. Other natural areas of application include inducing the structure of hidden Markov models. stochastic context-free grammars, Markov random fields. and Bayesian networks. References D. H. Ballard and C. M. Brown. (1982) Computer Vision. Englewood Cliffs, N. J: PrenticeHall. W. L. Buntine and A. S. Weigend. (1992) Bayesian Back-Propagation. To appear in: Complex Systems. L. Devroye and L. Gyorfi. (1985) Nonparametric Density Estimation: The Ll View, New York: Wiley. D. J. MacKay. (1992) A Practical Bayesian Framework for Backprop Networks. Caltech preprint. 1. Moody and C. Darken. (1989) Fast learning in networks of locally-tuned processing units. Neural Computation, 1,281-294. S. M. Omohundro. (1987) Efficient algorithms with neural network behavior. Complex Systems 1:273-347. S. M. Omohundro. (1989) Five balltree construction algorithms. International Computer Science Institute Technical Report TR-89-063. S. M. Omohundro. (1990) Geometric learning algorithms. Physica D 42:307-321. S. M. Omohundro. (1991) Bumptrees for Efficient Function, Constraint, and Oassification Learning. In Lippmann, Moody, and Touretzky. (eds.) Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 3. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. R. N. Shepard. (1987) Toward a universal law of generalization for psychological science. Science. V. Vapnik. (1982) Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data, New York: Springer-Verlag. 965 PART XIII ARCHITECTURES AND ALGORITHMS
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Sensor Selection in High-Dimensional Gaussian Trees with Nuisances Jonathan P. How MIT LIDS [email protected] Daniel Levine MIT LIDS [email protected] Abstract We consider the sensor selection problem on multivariate Gaussian distributions where only a subset of latent variables is of inferential interest. For pairs of vertices connected by a unique path in the graph, we show that there exist decompositions of nonlocal mutual information into local information measures that can be computed efficiently from the output of message passing algorithms. We integrate these decompositions into a computationally efficient greedy selector where the computational expense of quantification can be distributed across nodes in the network. Experimental results demonstrate the comparative efficiency of our algorithms for sensor selection in high-dimensional distributions. We additionally derive an online-computable performance bound based on augmentations of the relevant latent variable set that, when such a valid augmentation exists, is applicable for any distribution with nuisances. 1 Introduction This paper addresses the problem of focused active inference: selecting a subset of observable random variables that is maximally informative with respect to a specified subset of latent random variables. The subset selection problem is motivated by the desire to reduce the overall cost of inference while providing greater inferential accuracy. For example, in the context of sensor networks, control of the data acquisition process can lead to lower energy expenses in terms of sensing, computation, and communication [1, 2]. In many inferential problems, the objective is to reduce uncertainty in only a subset of the unknown quantities, which are related to each other and to observations through a joint probability distribution that includes auxiliary variables called nuisances. On their own, nuisances are not of any extrinsic importance to the uncertainty reduction task and merely serve as intermediaries when describing statistical relationships, as encoded with the joint distribution, between variables. The structure in the joint can be represented parsimoniously with a probabilistic graphical model, often leading to efficient inference algorithms [3, 4, 5]. However, marginalization of nuisance variables is potentially expensive and can mar the very sparsity of the graphical model that permitted efficient inference. Therefore, we seek methods for selecting informative subsets of observations in graphical models that retain nuisance variables. Two primary issues arise from the inclusion of nuisance variables in the problem. Observation random variables and relevant latent variables may be nonadjacent in the graphical model due to the interposition of nuisances between them, requiring the development of information measures that extend beyond adjacency (alternatively, locality) in the graph. More generally, the absence of certain conditional independencies, particularly between observations conditioned on the relevant latent variable set, means that one cannot directly apply the performance bounds associated with submodularity [6, 7, 8]. 1 In an effort to pave the way for analyzing focused active inference on the class of general distributions, this paper specifically examines multivariate Gaussian distributions ? which exhibit a number of properties amenable to analysis ? and later specializes to Gaussian trees. This paper presents a decomposition of pairwise nonlocal mutual information (MI) measures on Gaussian graphs that permits efficient information valuation, e.g., to be used in a greedy selection. Both the valuation and subsequent selection may be distributed over nodes in the network, which can be of benefit for high-dimensional distributions and/or large-scale distributed sensor networks. It is also shown how an augmentation to the relevant set can lead to an online-computable performance bound for general distributions with nuisances. The nonlocal MI decomposition extensively exploits properties of Gaussian distributions, Markov random fields, and Gaussian belief propagation (GaBP), which are reviewed in Section 2. The formal problem statement of focused active inference is stated in Section 3, along with an example that contrasts focused and unfocused selection. Section 4 presents pairwise nonlocal MI decompositions for scalar and vectoral Gaussian Markov random fields. Section 5 shows how to integrate pairwise nonlocal MI into a distributed greedy selection algorithm for the focused active inference problem; this algorithm is benchmarked in Section 6. A performance bound applicable to any focused selector is presented in Section 7. 2 2.1 Preliminaries Markov Random Fields (MRFs) Let G = (V, E) be a Markov random field (MRF) with vertex set V and edge set E. Let u and v be vertices of the graph G. A u-v path is a finite sequence of adjacent vertices, starting with vertex u and terminating at vertex v, that does not repeat any vertex. Let PG (u, v) denote the set of all paths between distinct u and v in G. If |PG (u, v)| > 0, then u and v are graph connected. If |PG (u, v)| = 1, then there is a unique path between u and v, and denote the sole element of PG (u, v) by P?u:v . If |PG (u, v)| = 1 for all u, v ? V, then G is a tree. If |PG (u, v)| ? 1 for all u, v ? V, then G is a forest, i.e., a disjoint union of trees. A chain is a simple tree with diameter equal to the number of nodes. A chain is said to be embedded in graph G if the nodes in the chain comprise a unique path in G. For MRFs, the global Markov property relates connectivity in the graph to implied conditional independencies. If D ? V, then GD = (D, ED ) is the subgraph induced by D, with ED = E ? (D ? D). For disjoint subsets A, B, C ? V, let G\B be the subgraph induced by V \ B. The global Markov property holds that xA ? ? xC | xB iff |PG\B (i, j)| = 0 for all i ? A and j ? C. 2.2 Gaussian Distributions in Information Form Consider a random vector x distributed according to a multivariate Gaussian distribution N (?, ?) with mean ? and (symmetric, positive definite) covariance ? > 0. One could equivalently consider the information form x ? N ?1 (h, J) with precision matrix J = ??1 > 0 and potential vector h = J?, for which px (x) ? exp{? 21 xT Jx + hT x}. One can marginalize out or condition on a subset of random variables by considering a partition of x into two subvectors, x1 and x2 , such that       J J12 x1 h1 x= ? N ?1 , 11 . x2 h2 JT12 J22 In the information form, the marginal distribution over x1 is px1 (?) = N ?1 (?; h01 , J01 ), where ?1 T 0 h01 = h1 ? J12 J?1 22 h2 and J1 = J11 ? J12 J22 J12 , the latter being the Schur complement of J22 . Conditioning on a particular realization x2 of the random subvector x2 induces the conditional distribution px1 |x2 (x1 |x2 ) = N ?1 (x1 ; h01|2 , J11 ), where h01|2 = h1 ? J12 x2 , and J11 is exactly the upper-left block submatrix of J. (Note that the conditional precision matrix is independent of the value of the realized x2 .) 2 If x ? N ?1 (h, J), where h ? Rn and J ? Rn?n , then the (differential) entropy of x is [9] 1 H(x) = ? log ((2?e)n ? det(J)) . 2 (1) Likewise, for nonempty A ? {1, . . . , n}, and (possibly empty) B ? {1, . . . , n} \ A, let J0A|B be the precision matrix parameterizing pxA |xB . The conditional entropy of xA ? Rd given xB is 1 H(xA |xB ) = ? log((2?e)d ? det(J0A|B )). 2 (2) The mutual information between xA and xB is 1 I(xA ; xB ) = H(xA ) + H(xB ) ? H(xA , xB ) = log 2 det(J0{A,B} ) ! det(J0A ) det(J0B ) , (3) which generally requires O(n3 ) operations to compute via Schur complement. 2.3 Gaussian MRFs (GMRFs) If x ? N ?1 (h, J), the conditional independence structure of px (?) can be represented with a Gaussian MRF (GMRF) G = (V, E), where E is determined by the sparsity pattern of J and the pairwise Markov property: {i, j} ? E iff Jij 6= 0. In a scalar GMRF, V indexes scalar components of x. In a vectoral GMRF, V indexes disjoint subvectors of x, each of potentially different dimension. The block submatrix Jii can be thought of as specifying the sparsity pattern of the scalar micro-network within the vectoral macro-node i ? V. 2.4 Gaussian Belief Propagation (GaBP) If x can be partitioned into n subvectors of dimension at most d, and the resulting graph is treeshaped, then all marginal precision matrices J0i , i ? V can be computed by Gaussian belief propagation (GaBP) [10] in O(n ? d3 ). For such trees, one can also compute all edge marginal precision matrices J0{i,j} , {i, j} ? E, with the same asymptotic complexity of O(n ? d3 ). In light of (3), pairwise MI quantities between adjacent nodes i and j may be expressed as I(xi ; xj ) = H(xi ) + H(xj ) ? H(xi , xj ), 1 1 1 = ? ln det(J0i ) ? ln det(J0j ) + ln det(J0{i,j} ), 2 2 2 {i, j} ? E, (4) i.e., purely in terms of node and edge marginal precision matrices. Thus, GaBP provides a way of computing all local pairwise MI quantities in O(n ? d3 ). Note that Gaussian trees comprise an important class of distributions that subsumes Gaussian hidden Markov models (HMMs), and GaBP on trees is a generalization of the Kalman filtering/smoothing algorithms that operate on HMMs. Moreover, the graphical inference community appears to best understand the convergence of message passing algorithms for continuous distributions on subclasses of multivariate Gaussians (e.g., tree-shaped [10], walk-summable [11], and feedback-separable [12] models, among others). 3 Problem Statement Let px (?) = N ?1 (?; h, J) be represented by GMRF G = (V, E), and consider a partition of V into the subsets of latent nodes U and observable nodes S, with R ? U denoting the subset of relevant latent variables (i.e., those to be inferred). Given a cost function c : 2S ? R?0 over subsets of observations, and a budget ? ? R?0 , the focused active inference problem is maximizeA?S s.t. 3 I(xR ; xA ) c(A) ? ?. (5) The focused active inference problem in (5) is distinguished from the unfocused active inference problem maximizeA?S s.t. I(xU ; xA ) c(A) ? ?, (6) which considers the entirety of the latent state U ? R to be of interest. Both problems are known to be NP-hard [13, 14]. By the chain rule and nonnegativity of MI, I(xU ; xA ) = I(xR ; xA ) + I(xU \R ; xA | xR ) ? I(xR ; xA ), for any A ? S. Therefore, maximizing unfocused MI does not imply maximizing focused MI. Focused active inference must be posed as a separate problem to avoid the situation where the observation selector becomes fixated on inferring nuisance variables as a result of I(xU \R ; xA | xR ) being included implicitly in the valuation. In fact, an unfocused selector can perform arbitrarily poorly with respect to a focused metric, as the following example illustrates. Example 1. Consider a scalar GMRF over a four-node chain (Figure 1a), whereby J13 = J14 = J24 = 0 by the pairwise Markov property, with R = {2}, S = {1, 4}, c(A) = |A| (i.e., unit-cost observations), and ? = 1. The optimal unfocused decision rule A?(U F ) = argmaxa?{1,4} I(x2 , x3 ; xa ) can be shown, by conditional independence and positive definiteness of J, to reduce to A? (U F ) ={4} |J34 | |J12 |, R A? ={1} (U F ) independent of J23 , which parameterizes the edge potential between nodes 2 and 3. Conversely, the optimal focused decision rule A?(F ) = argmaxa?{1,4} I(x2 ; xa ) can be shown to be A? (F ) ={4} |J23 | ? 1{J 2 2 2 2 34 ?J12 J34 ?J12 ?0} s R A? ={1} (F ) 2 )J 2 (1 ? J34 12 , 2 J34 where 1{?} is the indicator function, which evaluates to 1 when its argument is true and 0 otherwise. The loss associated with optimizing the ?wrong? information measure is demonstrated in Figure 1b. The reason for this loss is that as |J23 | ? 0+ , the information that node 3 can convey about node 2 also approaches zero, although the unfocused decision rule is oblivious to this fact. Score vs. |J23| (with J212 = 0.3, J234 = 0.5) 1 x1 Unfocused Policy Focused Policy 0.9 0.8 x2 x3 I(xR;xA) [nats] 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 x4 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 |J23| (a) Graphical model. (b) Policy comparison. Figure 1: (a) Graphical model for the four-node chain example. (b) Unfocused vs. focused policy comparison. There exists a range of values for |J23 | such that the unfocused and focused policies coincide; however, as |J23 | ? 0+ , the unfocused policy approaches complete performance loss with respect to the focused measure. 4 1 2 ... k G?1 G?2 G?k (a) Unique path with sidegraphs. (b) Vectoral graph with thin edges. Figure 2: (a) Example of a nontree graph G with a unique path P?1:k between nodes 1 and k. The ?sidegraph? attached to each node i ? P?1:k is labeled as G?i . (b) Example of a vectoral graph with thin edges, with internal (scalar) structure depicted. 4 Nonlocal MI Decomposition For GMRFs with n nodes indexing d-dimensional random subvectors, I(xR ; xA ) can be computed exactly in O((nd)3 ) via Schur complements/inversions on the precision matrix J. However, certain graph structures permit the computation via belief propagation of all local pairwise MI terms I(xi ; xj ), for adjacent nodes i, j ? V in O(n ? d3 ) ? a substantial savings for large networks. This section describes a transformation of nonlocal MI between uniquely path-connected nodes that permits a decomposition into the sum of transformed local MI quantities, i.e., those relating adjacent nodes in the graph. Furthermore, the local MI terms can be transformed in constant time, yielding an O(n ? d3 ) for computing any pairwise nonlocal MI quantity coinciding with a unique path. Definition 1 (Warped MI). For disjoint subsets A, B, C ? V, the warped mutual information measure W : 2V ? 2V ? 2V ? (??, 0] is defined such that W (A; B|C) , 1 2 log (1 ? exp {?2I(xA ; xB |xC )}). For convenience, let W (i; j|C) , W ({i}; {j}|C) for i, j ? V. Remark 2. For i, j ? V indexing scalar nodes, the warped MI of Definition 1 reduces to W (i; j) = log |?ij |, where ?ij ? [?1, 1] is the correlation coefficient between scalar r.v.s xi and xj . The measure log |?ij | has long been known to the graphical model learning community as an ?additive tree distance? [15, 16], and our decomposition for vectoral graphs is a novel application for sensor selection problems. To the best of the authors? knowledge, the only other distribution class with established additive distances are tree-shaped symmetric discrete distributions [16], which require a very limiting parameterization of the potentials functions defined over edges in the factorization of the joint distribution. Proposition 3 (Scalar Nonlocal MI Decomposition). For any GMRF G = (V, E) where V indexes scalar random variables, if |PG (u, v)| = 1 for distinct vertices u, v ? V, then for any C ? V \ {u, v}, I(xu ; xv |xC ) can be decomposed as X W (u; v|C) = W (i; j|C), (7) {i,j}?E?u:v where E?u:v is the set of edges joining consecutive nodes of P?u:v , the unique path between u and v and sole element of PG (u, v). (Proofs of this and subsequent propositions can be found in the supplementary material.) Remark 4. Proposition 3 requires only that the path between vertices u and v be unique. If G is a tree, this is obviously satisfied. However, the result holds on any graph for which: the subgraph induced by P?u:v is a chain; and every i ? P?u:v separates N (i) \ P?u:v from P?u:v \ {i}, where N (i) , {j : {i, j} ? E} is the neighbor set of i. See Figure 2a for an example of a nontree graph with a unique path. Definition 5 (Thin Edges). An edge {i, j} ? E of GMRF G = (V, E; J) is thin if the corresponding submatrix Jij has exactly one nonzero scalar component. (See Figure 2b.) For vectoral problems, each node may contain a subnetwork of arbitrarily connected scalar random variables (see Figure 2b). Under the assumption of thin edges (Definition 5), a unique path between nodes u and v must enter interstitial nodes through one scalar r.v. and leave through one scalar 5 r.v. Therefore, let ?i (u, v|C) ? (??, 0] denote the warped MI between the enter and exit r.v.s of interstitial vectoral node i on P?u:v , with conditioning set C ? V \ {u, v}.1 Note that ?i (u, v|C) can be computed online in O(d3 ) via local marginalization given J0i|C , which is an output of GaBP. Proposition 6 (Vectoral Nonlocal MI Decomposition). For any GMRF G = (V, E) where V indexes random vectors of dimension at most d and the edges in E are thin, if |PG (u, v)| = 1 for distinct vertices u, v ? V, then for any C ? V \ {u, v}, I(xu ; xv |xC ) can be decomposed as X X ?i (u, v|C). (8) W (i; j|C) + W (u; v|C) = i?P?u:v \{u,v} {i,j}?E?u:v 5 (Distributed) Focused Greedy Selection The nonlocal MI decompositions of Section 4 can be used to efficiently solve the focused greedy selection problem, which at each iteration, given the subset A ? S of previously selected observable random variables, is I(xR ; xy | xA ). argmax {y?S\A : c(y)???c(A)} To proceed, first consider the singleton case R = {r} for r ? U. Running GaBP on the graph G conditioned on A and subsequently computing all terms W (i; j|A), ?{i, j} ? E incurs a computational cost of O(n ? d3 ). Once GaBP has converged, node r authors an ?r-message? with the value 0. Each neighbor i ? N (r) receives that message with value modified by W (r; i|A); there is no ? term because there are no interstitial nodes between r and its neighbors. Subsequently, each i ? N (r) messages its neighbors j ? N (i) \ {r}, modifying the value of its r-message by W (i; j|A) + ?i (r, j|A), the latter term being computed online in O(d3 ) from J0i|A , itself an output of GaBP.2 Then j messages N (j) \ {i}, and so on down to the leaves of the tree. Since there are at most n?1 edges in a forest, the total cost of dissemination is still O(n?d3 ), after which all nodes y in the same component as r will have received an r-message whose value on arrival is W (r; y|A), from which I(xr ; xy |A) can be computed in constant time. Thus, for |R| = 1, all scores I(xR ; xy |xA ) for y ? S \ A can collectively be computed at each iteration of the greedy algorithm in O(n ? d3 ). Now consider |R| > 1. Let R = (r1 , . . . , r|R| ) be an ordering of the elements of R, and let Rk be the first k elements of R. Then, by the chain rule of mutual information, I(xR ; xy | xA ) = P|R| k=1 I(xrk ; xy | xA?Rk?1 ), y ? S \ A, where each term in the sum is a pairwise (potentially nonlocal) MI evaluation. The implication is that one can run |R| separate instances of GaBP, each using a different conditioning set A ? Rk?1 , to compute ?node and edge weights? (W and ? terms) for the r-message passing scheme outlined above. The chain rule suggests one should then sum the unwarped r-scores of these |R| instances to yield the scores I(xR ; xy |xA ) for y ? S \ A. The total cost of a greedy update is then O |R| ? nd3 . One of the benefits of the focused greedy selection algorithm is its amenability to parallelization. All quantities needed to form the W and ? terms are derived from GaBP, which is parallelizable and guaranteed to converge on trees in at most diam(G) iterations [10]. Parallelization reallocates the expense of quantification across networked computational resources, often leading to faster solution times and enabling larger problem instantiations than are otherwise permissible. However, full parallelization, wherein each node i ? V is viewed as separate computing resource, incurs a multiplicative overhead of O(diam(G)) due to each i having to send |N (i)| messages diam(G) times, yielding local communication costs of O(diam(G)|N (i)|?d3 ) and overall complexity of O(diam(G)?|R|?nd3 ). This overhead can be alleviated by instead assigning to every computational resource a connected subgraph of G. 1 As node i may have additional neighbors that are not on the u-v path, using the notation ?i (u, v|C) is a convenient way to implicitly specify the enter/exit scalar r.v.s associated with the path. Any unique path subsuming u-v, or any unique path subsumed in u-v for which i is interstitial, will have equivalent ?i terms. 2 If i is in the conditioning set, its outgoing message can be set to be ??, so that the nodes it blocks from reaching r see an apparent information score of 0. Alternatively, i could simply choose not to transmit r-messages to its neighbors. 6 It should also be noted that if the quantification is instead performed using serial BP ? which can be conceptualized as choosing an arbitrary root, collecting messages from the leaves up to the root, and disseminating messages back down again ? a factor of 2 savings can be achieved for R2 , . . . , R|R| by noting that in moving between instances k and k + 1, only rk is added to the conditioning set. Therefore, by reassigning rk as the root for the BP instance associated with rk+1 (i.e., A ? Rk as the conditioning set), only the second half of the message passing schedule (disseminating messages from the root to the leaves) is necessary. We subsequently refer to this trick as ?caching.? 6 Experiments To benchmark the runtime performance of the algorithm in Section 5, we implemented its serial GaBP variant in Java, with and without the caching trick described above. We compare our algorithm with greedy selectors that use matrix inversion (with cubic complexity) to compute nonlocal mutual information measures. Let Sfeas := {y ? S \ A : c(y) ? ? ? c(A)}. At each iteration of the greedy selector, the blocked inversion-based quantifier computes first J0R?Sfeas |A (entailing a block marginalization of nuisances), from which J0R|A and J0R|A?y , ?y ? Sfeas , are computed. Then I(xR ; xy | xA ), ?y ? Sfeas , are computed via a variant of (3). The na??ve inversion-based quantifier computes I(xR ; xy | xA ), ?y ? Sfeas , ?from scratch? by using separate Schur complements of J submatrices and not storing intermediate results. The inversion-based quantifiers were implemented in Java using the Colt sparse matrix libraries [17]. Greedy Selection Total Runtimes for Quantification Algorithms 6 10 BP?Quant?Cache BP?Quant?NoCache Inv?Quant?Block Inv?Quant?Naive 5 Mean Runtime [ms] 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 n (Network Size) Figure 3: Performance of GaBP-based and inversion-based quantifiers used in greedy selectors. For each n, the mean of the runtimes over 20 random scalar problem instances is displayed. Our BP-Quant algorithm of Section 5 empirically has approximately linear complexity; caching reduces the mean runtime by a factor of approximately 2. Figure 3 shows the comparative mean runtime performance of each of the quantifiers for scalar networks of size n, where the mean is taken over the 20 problem instances proposed for each value of n. Each problem instance consists of a randomly generated, symmetric, positive-definite, treeshaped precision matrix J, along with a randomly labeled S (such that, arbitrarily, |S| = 0.3|V|) and R (such that |R| = 5), as well as randomly selected budget and heterogeneous costs defined over S. Note that all selectors return the same greedy selection; we are concerned with how the decompositions proposed in this paper aid in the computational performance. In the figure, it is clear that the GaBP-based quantification algorithms of Section 5 vastly outperform both inversionbased methods; for relatively small n, the solution times for the inversion-based methods became prohibitively long. Conversely, the behavior of the BP-based quantifiers empirically confirms the asymptotic O(n) complexity of our method for scalar networks. 7 7 Performance Bounds Due to the presence of nuisances in the model, even if the subgraph induced by S is completely disconnected, it is not always the case that the nodes in S are conditionally independent when conditioned on only the relevant latent set R. Lack of conditional independence means one cannot guarantee submodularity of the information measure, as per [6]. Our approach will be to augment R such that submodularity is guaranteed and relate the performance bound to this augmented set. ? be any subset such that R ? R ? ? U and such that nodes in S are conditionally independent Let R ? conditioned on R. Then, by Corollary 4 of [6], I(xR? ; xA ) is submodular and nondecreasing on S. Additionally, for the case of unit-cost observations (i.e., c(A) = |A| for all A ? S), a greedily ? of cardinality ? satisfies the performance bound selected subset Ag? (R)   1 g ? ? ? A) I(R; A? (R)) ? 1 ? max I(R; (9) e {A?S:|A|??}   1 ? \ R; A|R)] max [I(R; A) + I(R (10) = 1? e {A?S:|A|??}   1 ? 1? max I(R; A), (11) e {A?S:|A|??} where (9) is due to [6], (10) to the chain rule of MI, and (11) to the nonnegativity of MI. The following proposition follows immediately from (11). ? such that R ? R ? ? U and nodes in S are conditionally independent Proposition 7. For any set R ? provided I(R; ? Ag (R)) ? > 0, an online-computable performance bound for any conditioned on R, ? A? ? S in the original focused problem with relevant set R and unit-cost observations is # "  ? 1 I(R; A) ? 1? I(R; A) ? max I(R; A). (12) ? Ag (R)) ? e {A?S:|A|??} I(R; ? | {z } ? R) ? , ?R (A, ? R) ? of the optimal obProposition 7 can be used at runtime to determine what percentage ?R (A, jective is guaranteed, for any focused selector, despite the lack of conditional independence of S conditioned on R. In order to compute the bound, a greedy heuristic running on a separate, surro? as the relevant set is required. Finding an R ? ? R providing the tightest bound gate problem with R is an area of future research. 8 Conclusion In this paper, we have considered the sensor selection problem on multivariate Gaussian distributions that, in order to preserve a parsimonious representation, contain nuisances. For pairs of nodes connected in the graph by a unique path, there exist decompositions of nonlocal mutual information into local MI measures that can be computed efficiently from the output of message passing algorithms. For tree-shaped models, we have presented a greedy selector where the computational expense of quantification can be distributed across nodes in the network. Despite deficiency in conditional independence of observations, we have derived an online-computable performance bound based on an augmentation of the relevant set. Future work will consider extensions of the MI decomposition to graphs with nonunique paths and/or non-Gaussian distributions, as well as extend the analysis of augmented relevant sets to derive tighter performance bounds. Acknowledgments The authors thank John W. Fisher III, Myung Jin Choi, and Matthew Johnson for helpful discussions during the preparation of this paper. This work was supported by DARPA Mathematics of Sensing, Exploitation and Execution (MSEE). 8 References [1] C. M. Kreucher, A. O. Hero, and K. D. Kastella. An information-based approach to sensor management in large dynamic networks. Proc. IEEE, Special Issue on Modeling, Identificiation, & Control of Large-Scale Dynamical Systems, 95(5):978?999, May 2007. [2] H.-L. Choi and J. P. How. Continuous trajectory planning of mobile sensors for informative forecasting. Automatica, 46(8):1266?1275, 2010. [3] V. Chandrasekaran, N. Srebro, and P. Harsha. Complexity of inference in graphical models. In Proc. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2008. [4] D. Koller and N. Friedman. Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques. MIT Press, 2009. [5] F. R. Kschischang, B. J. Frey, and H.-A. Loeliger. Factor graphs and the sum-product algorithm. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 47(2):498?519, Feb 2001. [6] A. Krause and C. Guestrin. Near-optimal nonmyopic value of information in graphical models. In Proc. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2005. [7] G. Nemhauser, L. Wolsey, and M. Fisher. An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions. Mathematical Programming, 14:489?498, 1978. [8] J. L. Williams, J. W. Fisher III, and A. S. Willsky. Performance guarantees for information theoretic active inference. In M. Meila and X. Shen, editors, Proc. Eleventh Int. Conf. on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pages 616?623, 2007. [9] T. M. Cover and J. A. Thomas. Elements of Information Theory. Wiley, 2nd ed. edition, 2006. [10] Y. Weiss and W. T. Freeman. Correctness of belief propagation in Gaussian graphical models of arbitrary topology. Neural Computation, 13(10):2173?2200, 2001. [11] D. M. Malioutov, J. K. Johnson, and A. S. Willsky. Walk-sums and belief propagation in Gaussian graphical models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:2031?2064, 2006. [12] Y. Liu, V. Chandrasekaran, A. Anandkumar, and A. S. Willsky. Feedback message passing for inference in gaussian graphical models. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 60(8):4135? 4150, Aug 2012. [13] C. Ko, J. Lee, and M. Queyranne. An exact algorithm for maximum entropy sampling. Operations Research, 43:684?691, 1995. [14] A. Krause and C. Guestrin. Optimal value of information in graphical models. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 35:557?591, 2009. [15] P. L. Erd?os, M. A. Steel, L. A. Sz?ekely, and T. J. Warnow. A few logs suffice to build (almost) all trees: Part ii. Theoretical Computer Science, 221:77?118, 1999. [16] M. J. Choi, V. Y. F. Tan, A. Anandkumar, and A. S. Willsky. Learning latent tree graphical models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:1771?1812, May 2011. [17] CERN - European Organization for Nuclear Research. Colt, 1999. 9
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?-Optimality for Active Learning on Gaussian Random Fields Yifei Ma Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] Roman Garnett Computer Science Department University of Bonn [email protected] Jeff Schneider Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] Abstract A common classifier for unlabeled nodes on undirected graphs uses label propagation from the labeled nodes, equivalent to the harmonic predictor on Gaussian random fields (GRFs). For active learning on GRFs, the commonly used V-optimality criterion queries nodes that reduce the L2 (regression) loss. V-optimality satisfies a submodularity property showing that greedy reduction produces a (1 ? 1/e) globally optimal solution. However, L2 loss may not characterise the true nature of 0/1 loss in classification problems and thus may not be the best choice for active learning. We consider a new criterion we call ?-optimality, which queries the node that minimizes the sum of the elements in the predictive covariance. ?-optimality directly optimizes the risk of the surveying problem, which is to determine the proportion of nodes belonging to one class. In this paper we extend submodularity guarantees from V-optimality to ?-optimality using properties specific to GRFs. We further show that GRFs satisfy the suppressor-free condition in addition to the conditional independence inherited from Markov random fields. We test ?optimality on real-world graphs with both synthetic and real data and show that it outperforms V-optimality and other related methods on classification. 1 Introduction Real-world data are often presented as a graph where the nodes in the graph bear labels that vary smoothly along edges. For example, for scientific publications, the content of one paper is highly correlated with the content of papers that it references or is referenced by, the field of interest of a scholar is highly correlated with other scholars s/he coauthors with, etc. Many of these networks can be described using an undirected graph with nonnegative edge weights set to be the strengths of the connections between nodes. The model for label prediction in this paper is the harmonic function on the Gaussian random field (GRF) by Zhu et al. (2003). It can generalize two popular and intuitive algorithms: label propagation (Zhu & Ghahramani, 2002), and random walk with absorptions (Wu et al., 2012). GRFs can be seen as a Gaussian process (GP) (Rasmussen & Williams, 2006) with its (maybe improper) prior covariance matrix whose (pseudo)inverse is set to be the graph Laplacian. Like other learning problems, labels may be insufficient and expensive to gather, especially if one wants to discover a new phenomenon on a graph. Active learning addresses these issues by making automated decisions on which nodes to query for labels from experts or the crowd. Some popular criteria are empirical risk minimization (Settles, 2010; Zhu et al., 2003), mutual information gain (Krause et al., 2008), and V-optimality (Ji & Han, 2012). Here we consider an alternative criterion, ?-optimality, and establish several related theoretical results. Namely, we show that greedy reduction of ?-optimality provides a (1 ? 1/e) approximation bound to the global optimum. We also show 1 that Gaussian random fields satisfy the suppressor-free condition, described below. Finally, we show that ?-optimality outperforms other approaches for active learning with GRFs for classification. 1.1 V-optimality on Gaussian Random Fields Ji & Han (2012) proposed greedy variance minimization as a cheap and high profile surrogate active classification criterion. To decide which node to query next, the active learning algorithm finds the unlabeled node which leads to the smallest average predictive variance on all other unlabeled nodes. It corresponds to standard V-optimality in optimal experiment design. We will discuss several aspects of V-optimality on GRFs below: 1. The motivation behind Voptimality can be paraphrased as the expected risk minimization with the L2 -surrogate loss (Section 2.1). 2. The greedy solution to the set optimization problem in V-optimality is comparable to the global solution up to a constant (Theorem 1). 3. The greedy application of V-optimality can also be interpreted as a heuristic which selects nodes that have high correlation to nodes with high variances (Observation 4). Some previous work is related to point 2 above. Nemhauser et al. (1978) shows that any submodular, monotone and normalized set function yields a (1 ? 1/e) global optimality guarantee for greedy solutions. Our proof techniques coincides with Friedland & Gaubert (2011) in principle, but we are not restricted to spectral functions. Krause et al. (2008) showed a counter example where the V-optimality objective function with GP models does not satisfy submodularity. 1.2 ?-optimality on Gaussian Random Fields We define ?-optimality on GRFs to be another variance minimization criterion that minimizes the sum of all entries in the predictive covariance matrix. As we will show in Lemma 7, the predictive covariance matrix is nonnegative entry-wise and thus the definition is proper. ?-optimality was originally proposed by Garnett et al. (2012) in the context of active surveying, which is to determine the proportion of nodes belonging to one class. However, we focus on its performance as a criterion in active classification heuristics. The survey-risk of ?-optimality replaces the L2 -risk of V-optimality as an alternative surrogate risk for the 0/1-risk. We also prove that the greedy application of ?-optimality has a similar theoretical bound as Voptimality. We will show that greedily minimizing ?-optimality empirically outperforms greedily minimizing V-optimality on classification problems. The exact reason explaining the superiority of ?-optimality as a surrogate loss in the GRF model is still an open question, but we observe that ?-optimality tends to select cluster centers whereas V-optimality goes after outliers (Section 3.1). Finally, greedy application of both ?-optimality and V-optimality need O(N ) time per query candidate evaluation after one-time inverse of a N ? N matrix. 1.3 GRFs Are Suppressor Free In linear regression, an explanatory variable is called a suppressor if adding it as a new variable enhances correlations between the old variables and the dependent variable (Walker, 2003; Das & Kempe, 2008). Suppressors are persistent in real-world data. We show GRFs to be suppressorfree. Intuitively, this means that with more labels acquired, the conditional correlation between unlabeled nodes decreases even when their Markov blanket has not formed. That GRFs present natural examples for the otherwise obscure suppressor-free condition is interesting. 2 Learning Model & Active Learning Objectives We use Gaussian random field/label propagation (GRF / LP) as our learning model. Suppose the dataset can be represented in the form of a connected undirected graph G = (V, E) where each node has an (either known or unknown) label and each edge eij has a fixed nonnegative weight wij (= wji ) that reflects the proximity, similarity, etc. between nodes vi and vj . Define the graph P Laplacian of G to be L = diag (W 1) ? W , i.e., lii = j wij and lij = ?wij when i 6= j. Let L? = L + ?I be the generalized Laplacian obtained by adding self-loops. In the following, we will write L to also encompass ?L? for the set of hyper-parameters ? > 0 and ? ? 0. 2 The binary GRF is a Bayesian model to generate yi ? {0, +1} for every node vi according to,   n ?X X o 1 T 2 2 p(y) ? exp ? = exp ? y Ly . wij (yi ? yj ) + ? yi (2.1) 2 i,j 2 i Suppose nodes ` = {v`1 , . . . , v`|`| } are labeled as y` = (y`1 , . . . , y`|`| )T ; A GRF infers the output distribution on unlabeled nodes, yu = (yu1 , . . . , yu|u| )T by the conditional distribution given y` , as Pr(yu |y` ) ? N (? yu , L?1 yu , L?1 u ) = N (? (v?`) ), (2.2) (?L?1 u Lu` y` ) where y ?u = is the vector of predictive means on unlabeled nodes and Lu is the principal submatrix consisting   of the unlabeled row and column indices in L, that is, the lower-right L` L`u block of L = . By convention, L?1 (v?`) means the inverse of the principal submatrix. Lu` Lu We use L(v?`) and Lu interchangeably because ` and u partition the set of all nodes v. Finally, GRF, or GRF / LP, is a relaxation of the binary GRF to continuous outputs, because the latter is computationally intractable even for a-priori generations. LP stands for label propagation, because the predictive mean on a node is the probability of a random walk leaving that node hitting a positive label before hitting a zero label. For multi-class problems, Zhu et al. (2003) proposed the harmonic predictor which looks at predictive means in one-versus-all comparisons. Remark: An alternative approximation to the binary GRF is the GRF-sigmoid model, which draws the binary outputs from Bernoulli distributions with means set to be the sigmoid function of the GRF (latent) variables. However, this alternative is very slow to compute and may not be compatible with the theoretical results in this paper. 2.1 Active Learning Objective 1: L2 Risk Minimization (V-Optimality) Since in GRFs, regression responses are taken directly as probability predictions, it is computationally and analytically more convenient to apply the regression loss directly in the GRF as in Ji & Han (2012). Assume the L2 loss to be our classification loss. The risk function, whose input variable is the labeled subset `, is: ## " " X X RV (`) = Ey` yu (yui ? y?ui )2 = E E (yui ? y?ui )2 y` = tr(L?1 (2.3) u ). u ?u u ?u i i This risk is written with a subscript V because minimizing (2.3) is also the V-optimality criterion, which minimizes mean prediction variance in active learning. In active learning, we strive to select a subset ` of nodes to query for labels, constrained by a given budget C, such that the risk is minimized. Formally, arg min R(`) = RV (`) = tr(L?1 (2.4) (v?`) ). `: |`|?C 2.2 Active Learning Objective 2: Survey Risk Minimization (?-Optimality) Another objective building on the GRF model (2.2) is to determine the proportion of nodes belonging to class 1, as would happen when performing a survey. For active surveying, the risk would be: X X 2   2  R? (`) = Ey` yu yui ? y?ui = E E 1T yu ? 1T y?u |y` = 1T L?1 (2.5) u 1, ui ?u ui ?u which could substitute the risk R(`) in (2.4) and yield another heuristic for selecting nodes in batch active learning. We will refer to this modified optimization objective as the ?-optimality heuristic: arg min R(`) = R? (`) = 1T L?1 (2.6) (v?`) 1. `: |`|?C Further, we will also consider the application of ?-optimality in active classification because (2.6) is another metric of the predictive variance. Surprisingly, although both (2.3) and (2.5) are approximations of the real objective (the 0/1 risk), greedy reduction of the ?-optimality criterion outperforms greedy reduction of the V-optimality criterion in active classification (Section 3.1 and 5.1), as well as several other methods including expected error reduction. 3 2.3 Greedy Sequential Application of V/?-Optimality Both (2.4) and (2.6) are subset optimization problems. Calculating the global optimum may be intractable. As will be shown later in the theoretical results, the reduction of both risks are submodular set functions and the greedy sequential update algorithm yields a solution that has a guaranteed approximation ratio to the optimum (Theorem 1). At the k-th query decision, denote the covariance matrix conditioned on the previous (k ? 1) queries as C = (L(v?`(k?1) ) )?1 . By Shur?s Lemma (or the GP-regression update rule), the one-step lookahead covariance matrix conditioned on `(k?1) ? {v}, denoted as C0 = (L(v?(`(k?1) ?{v})) )?1 , has the following update formula:  0  1 C 0 =C? ? C:v Cv: , (2.7) 0 0 Cvv where without loss of generality v was positioned as the last node. Further denoting Cij = ?ij ?i ?j , we can put (2.7) inside R? (?) and RV (?) to get the following equivalent criteria: P 2 X (k) t?u (Cvt ) V-optimality : v? = arg max = ?2vt ?t2 , (2.8) Cvv v?u t?u P X ( t?u Cvt )2 (k) =( ?vt ?t )2 . (2.9) ?-optimality : v? = arg max Cvv v?u t?u 3 Theoretical Results & Insights For the general GP model, greedy optimization of the L2 risk has no guarantee that the solution can be comparable to the brute-force global optimum (taking exponential time to compute), because the objective function, the trace of the predictive covariance matrix, fails to satisfy submodularity in all cases (Krause et al., 2008). However, in the special case of GPs with kernel matrix equal to the inverse of a graph Laplacian (with ` 6= ? or ? > 0), the GRF does provide such theoretical guarantees, both for V-optimality and ?-optimality. The latter is a novel result. The following theoretical results concern greedy maximization of the risk reduction function (which is shown to be submodular): R? (`) = R(?) ? R(`) for either R(?) = RV (?) or R? (?). Theorem 1 (Near-optimal guarantee for greedy applications of V/?-optimality). In risk reduction, R? (`g ) ? (1 ? 1/e) ? R? (`? ), (3.1) where R? (`) = R(?) ? R(`) for either R(?) = RV (?) or R? (?), e is Euler?s number, `g is the greedy optimizer, and `? is the true global optimizer under the constraint |`? | ? |`g |. According to Nemhauser et al. (1978), it suffices to show the following properties of R? (`): Lemma 2 (Normalization, Monotonicity, and Submodularity). ?`1 ? `2 ? v, v ? v, R? (?) = 0, (3.2) R? (`2 ) ? R? (`1 ), (3.3)   R? `1 ? {v} ? R? (`1 ) ? R? `2 ? {v} ? R? (`2 ). (3.4) Another sufficient condition for Theorem 1, which is itself an interesting observation, is the suppressor-free condition. Walker (2003) describes a suppressor as a variable, knowing which will suddenly create a strong correlation between the predictors. An example is yi + yj = yk . Knowing any one of these will create correlations between the others. Walker further states that suppressors are common in regression problems. Das & Kempe (2008) extend the suppressor-free condition to sets and showed that this condition is sufficient to prove (2.3). Formally, the condition is: corr(yi , yj | `1 ? `2 ) ? corr(yi , yj | `1 ) ?vi , vj ? v, ?`1 , `2 ? v. (3.5) It may be easier to understand (3.5) as a decreasing correlation property. It is well known for Markov random fields that the labels of two nodes on a graph become independent given labels of their Markov blanket. Here we establish that GRF boasts more than that: the correlation between any two nodes decreases as more nodes get labeled, even before a Markov blanket is formed. Formally: 4 Theorem 3 (Suppressor-Free Condition). (3.5) holds for pairs of nodes in the GRF model. Note that since the conditional covariance of the GRF model is L?1 (v?`) , we can properly define the corresponding conditional correlation to be   1 ?1 ? 12 L corr(yu |`) = D? 2 L?1 D , with D = diag (3.6) (v?`) . (v?`) Insights From Comparing the Greedy Applications of the ?/V-Optimality Criteria 3.1 Both the V/?-optimality are approximations to the 0/1 risk minimization objective. Unfortunately, we cannot theoretically reason why greedy ?-optimality outperforms V-optimality in the experiments. However, we made two observations during our investigation that provide some insights. An illustrative toy example is also provided in Section 5.1. Observation 4. Eq. (2.8) and (2.9) suggest that both the greedy ?/V-optimality selects nodes that (1) have high variance and (2) are highly correlated to high-variance nodes, conditioned on the labeled nodes. Notice Lemma 7 proves that predictive correlations are always nonnegative. In order to contrast ?/V-optimality, rewrite (2.9) as: P P P (?-optimality) : arg max ( t?u ?vt ?t )2 = t?u ?2vt ?t2 + t1 6=t2 ?u ?vt1 ?vt2 ?t1 ?t2 . (3.7) v?u Observation 5. ?-optimality has one more term that involves cross products of (?vt1 ?t1 ) and (?vt2 ?t2 ) (which are nonnegative according to Lemma 9). By the Cauchy?Schwartz Inequality, the sum of these cross products are maximized when they are equal. So, the ?-optimality additionally favors nodes that (3) have consistent global influence, i.e., that are more likely to be in cluster centers. 4 Proof Sketches Our results predicate on and extend to GPs whose inverse covariance matrix meets Proposition 6. Proposition 6. L satisfies the following. # p6.1 p6.2 p6.3 p6.4 1 Textual description Mathematical expression L has proper signs. L is undirected and connected. Node degree no less than number of edges. L is nonsingular and positive-definite. lij ? 0 if i = j and Plij ? 0 if i 6= j. lij = P lji ?i, j and j6P =i (?lij ) > 0. lii ? j6=P (?l ) = ij i j6=P i (?lji ) > 0, ?i. ?i : lii > j6=i (?lij ) = j6=i (?lji ) > 0. Although the properties of V-optimality fall into the more general class of spectral functions (Friedland & Gaubert, 2011), we have seen no proof of either the suppressor-free condition or the submodularity of ?-optimality on GRFs. We write the ideas behind the proofs. Details are in the appendix.2 Lemma 7. For any L satisfying (p6.1-4), L?1 ? 0 entry-wise.3 Proof. Sketch: Suppose L = D ? W = D(I ? D?1 W ), with D = diag (L). Then we can show the convergence of the Taylor expansion (Appendix A.1): P? (4.1) L?1 = [I + r=1 (D?1 W )r ]D?1 . It suffices to observe that every term on the right hand side (RHS) is nonnegative. |`| Corollary 8. The GRF prediction operator L?1 to y ?u = ?L?1 u Lul maps y` ? [0, 1] u Lul y` ? |u| [0, 1] . When L is singular, the mapping is onto. 1 Property p6.4 holds after the first query is done or when the regularizor ? > 0 in (2.1). Available at http://www.autonlab.org/autonweb/21763.html 3 In the following, for any vector or matrix A, A ? 0 always stands for A being (entry-wise) nonnegative. 2 5  Proof. For y` = 1, (Lu , Lul ) ? 1 ? 0 and L?1 ? 0 imply I, L?1 u Lul ? 1 ? 0, i.e. 1 ? u ?L?1 ?u . u Lul 1 = y 0 As both Lu ? 0 and ?Lul ? 0, we have y` ? 0 ? y ?u ? 0 and y` ? y`0 ? y ?u ? y ?u .    ?1  L11 L12 L11 0 Lemma 9. Suppose L = . Then L?1 ? ? 0 and is positive-semidefinite. L21 L22 0 0 Proof. As L?1 ? 0 andis PSD, the is term-wise nonnegative and the middle term PSD  RHS  below   L?1 0 L?1 (?L12 ) ?1 11 11 (Appendix A.2): L ? = (L22 ?L21 L?1 L12 )?1 (?L21 )L?1 ,I 11 11 0 0 I As a corollary, the monotonicity in (3.3) for both R(?) = RV (?) or R? (?) can be shown. Both proofs for submodularity in (3.4) and Theorem 3 result from more careful execution of matrix inversions similar to Lemma 9 (detailed in Appendix A.4). We sketch Theorem 3 for example. Proof. Without loss of generality, let u = v ? ` = {1, . . . , k}. By Shur?s Lemma (Appendix A.3):   (L?1 Cov(yi , yk |`) Au bu (v?`) )ik L(v?`) := ? = ?1 = (A?1 (4.2) T u (?bu ))i , ?i 6= k bu c u Var(yk |`) (L(v?`) )kk where the LHS is a reparamatrization with cu being a scaler. Lemma 9 shows that u1 ? u2 ? ?1 A?1 u1 ? Au2 at corresponding entries. Also notice that ?bu1 ? ?bu2 at corresponding entries and so the RHS of (4.2) is larger with u1 . It suffices to draw a similar inequality in the other direction, Cov(yk , yi |`)/ Var(yi |`). 5 5.1 A Toy Example and Some Simulations Comparing V-Optimality and ?-Optimality: Active Node Classification on a Graph To visualize the intuitions described in Section 3.1, Figure 1 shows the first few nodes selected by different optimality criteria. This graph is constructed by a breadth-first search from a random node in a larger DBLP coauthorship network graph that we will introduce in the next section. On this toy graph, both criteria pick the same center node to query first. However, for the second and third queries, Voptimality weighs the uncertainty of the candidate node more, choosing outliers, whereas ?-optimality favors nodes with universal influence over the graph and goes to cluster centers. 5.2 class 1 class 2 class 3 ??optimality V?optimality Simulating Labels on a Graph Figure 1: Toy graph demonstrating the behavior To further investigate the behavior of ?- and V - of ?-optimality vs. V-optimality. optimality, we conducted experiments on synthetic labels generated on real-world network graphs. The node labels were first simulated using the model in order to compare the active learning criteria directly without raising questions of model fit. We carry out tests on the same graphs with real data in the next section. We simulated the binary labels with the GRF-sigmoid model and performed active learning with the GRF / LP model for predictions. The parameters in the generation phase were ? = 0.01 and ? = 0.05, which maximizes the average classification accuracy increases from 50 random training nodes to 200 random training nodes using the GRF / LP model for predictions. Figure 2 shows the binary classification accuracy versus the number of queries on both the DBLP coauthorship graph 6 0.68 0.6 classification accuracy classification accuracy 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.6 0.58 0.56 ??optimality V?optimality Random 0.54 0.52 0.5 0 50 100 150 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.5 0 200 number of queries (a) DBLP coauthorship. 68.3% LOO accuracy. ??optimality V?optimality Random 0.52 50 100 150 200 number of queries (b) CORA citation. 60.5% LOO accuracy. Figure 2: Simulating binary labels by the GRF-Sigmoid; learning with the GRF / LP, 480 repetitions. and the CORA citation graph that we will describe below. The best possible classification results are indicated by the leave-one-out (LOO) accuracies given under each plot. Figure 2 can be a surprise due to the reasoning behind the L2 surrogate loss, especially when the predictive means are trapped between [?1, 1], but we see here that our reasoning in Sections (3.1 and 5.1) can lead to the greedy survey loss actually making a better active learning objective. We have also performed experiments with different values of ? and ?. Despite the fact that larger ? and ? increase label independence on the graph structure and undermine the effectiveness of both V/?-optimality heuristics, we have seen that whenever the V-optimality establishes a superiority over random selections, ?-optimality yields better performance. 6 Real-World Experiments The active learning heuristics to be compared are:4  1. The new ?-optimality with greedy sequential updates: minv0 1> (Luk \{v0 } )?1 1 .  2. Greedy V-optimality (Ji & Han, 2012): minv0 tr (Luk \{v0 } )?1 .    3. Mutual information gain (MIG) (Krause et al., 2008): maxv0 L?1 (L`k ?{v0 } )?1 v0 ,v0 uk v 0 ,v 0 (1) (2) 4. Uncertainty sampling (US) picking the largest prediction margin: maxv0 y?v0 ? y?v0 . 5. Expected error reduction (EER) (Settles, 2010; Zhu et al., h 2003). Selected nodes  imaximize P (1) 0 0 the average prediction confidence in expectation: maxv Eyv0 ?ui yv y`k . ui ?u y 6. Random selection with 12 repetitions. Comparisons are made on three real-world network graphs. 1. DBLP coauthorship network.5 The nodes represent scholars and the weighted edges are the number of papers bearing both scholars? names. The largest connected component has 1711 nodes and 2898 edges. The node labels were hand assigned in Ji & Han (2012) to one of the four expertise areas of the scholars: machine learning, data mining, information retrieval, and databases. Each class has around 400 nodes. 2. Cora citation network.6 This is a citation graph of 2708 publications, each of which is classified into one of seven classes: case based, genetic algorithms, neural networks, probabilistic methods, reinforcement learning, rule learning, and theory. The network has 5429 links. We took its largest connected component, with 2485 nodes and 5069 undirected and unweighted edges. 4 Code available at http://www.autonlab.org/autonweb/21763 http://www.informatik.uni-trier.de/?ley/db/ 6 http://www.cs.umd.edu/projects/linqs/projects/lbc/index.html 5 7 0.65 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.55 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.45 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.35 ??opt V?opt Rand MIG Unc EER 0.3 0.25 0.2 0 10 (a) DBLP . 20 30 40 84% LOO accuracy. 50 ??opt V?opt Rand MIG Unc EER 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 (b) 10 CORA . 20 30 40 50 86& LOO accuracy. 0.4 ??opt V?opt Rand MIG Unc EER 0.3 0.2 0 (c) 10 CITESEER 20 30 40 50 76% LOO accuracy. Figure 3: Classification accuracy vs the number of queries. ? = 1, ? = 0. Randomized first query. 3. CiteSeer citation network.6 This is another citation graph of 3312 publications, each of which is classified into one of six classes: agents, artificial intelligence, databases, information retrieval, machine learning, human computer interaction. The network has 4732 links. We took its largest connected component, with 2109 nodes and 3665 undirected and unweighted edges. On all three datasets, ?-optimality outperforms other methods by a large margin especially during the first five to ten queries. The runner-up, EER, catches up to ?-optimality in some cases, but EER does not have theoretical guarantees. The win of ?-optimality over V-optimality has been intuitively explained in Section 5.1 as ?optimality having better exploration ability and robustness against outliers. The node choices by both criteria were also visually inspected after embedding the graph to the 2-dimensional space using OpenOrd method developed by Martin et al. (2011). The analysis there was similar to Figure 1. We also performed real-world experiments on the root-mean-square-error of the class proportion estimations, which is the survey risk that the ?-optimality minimizes. ?-optimality beats V-optimality. Details were omitted for space concerns. 7 Conclusion For active learning on GRFs, it is common to use variance minimization criteria with greedy onestep lookahead heuristics. V-optimality and ?-optimality are two criteria based on statistics of the predictive covariance matrix. They both are also risk minimization criteria: V-optimality minimizes the L2 risk (2.3), whereas ?-optimality minimizes the survey risk (2.5). Active learning with both criteria can be seen as subset optimization problems (2.4), (2.6). Both objective functions are supermodular set functions. Therefore, risk reduction is submodular and the greedy one-step lookahead heuristics can achieve a (1 ? 1/e) global optimality ratio. Moreover, we have shown that GRFs serve as a tangible example of the suppressor-free condition. While the V-optimality on GRFs inherits from label propagation (and random walk with absorptions) and have good empirical performance, it is not directly minimizing the 0/1 classification risk. We found that the ?-optimality performs even better. The intuition is described in Section 5.1. Future work include deeper understanding of the direct motivations behind ?-optimality on the GRF classification model and extending the GRF to continuous spaces. Acknowledgments This work is funded in part by NSF grant IIS0911032 and DARPA grant FA87501220324. 8 References Das, Abhimanyu and Kempe, David. Algorithms for subset selection in linear regression. In Proceedings of the 40th annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing, pp. 45?54. ACM, 2008. Friedland, S and Gaubert, S. Submodular spectral functions of principal submatrices of a hermitian matrix, extensions and applications. Linear Algebra and its Applications, 2011. Garnett, Roman, Krishnamurthy, Yamuna, Xiong, Xuehan, Schneider, Jeff, and Mann, Richard. Bayesian optimal active search and surveying. In ICML, 2012. Ji, Ming and Han, Jiawei. A variance minimization criterion to active learning on graphs. In AISTAT, 2012. Krause, Andreas, Singh, Ajit, and Guestrin, Carlos. Near-optimal sensor placements in gaussian processes: Theory, efficient algorithms and empirical studies. Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), 9:235?284, February 2008. Martin, Shawn, Brown, W Michael, Klavans, Richard, and Boyack, Kevin W. Openord: an opensource toolbox for large graph layout. In IS&T/SPIE Electronic Imaging, pp. 786806?786806. International Society for Optics and Photonics, 2011. Nemhauser, George L, Wolsey, Laurence A, and Fisher, Marshall L. An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functionsi. Mathematical Programming, 14(1):265?294, 1978. Rasmussen, Carl Edward and Williams, Christopher KI. Gaussian processes for machine learning, volume 1. MIT press Cambridge, MA, 2006. Settles, Burr. Active learning literature survey. University of Wisconsin, Madison, 2010. Walker, David A. Suppressor variable (s) importance within a regression model: an example of salary compression from career services. Journal of College Student Development, 44(1):127? 133, 2003. Wu, Xiao-Ming, Li, Zhenguo, So, Anthony Man-Cho, Wright, John, and Chang, Shih-Fu. Learning with partially absorbing random walks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pp. 3086?3094, 2012. Zhu, Xiaojin and Ghahramani, Zoubin. Learning from labeled and unlabeled data with label propagation. Technical report, Technical Report CMU-CALD-02-107, Carnegie Mellon University, 2002. Zhu, Xiaojin, Lafferty, John, and Ghahramani, Zoubin. Combining active learning and semisupervised learning using gaussian fields and harmonic functions. In ICML 2003 workshop on The Continuum from Labeled to Unlabeled Data in Machine Learning and Data Mining, pp. 58?65, 2003. 9
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Bayesian optimization explains human active search Ali Borji Department of Computer Science USC, Los Angeles, 90089 [email protected] Laurent Itti Departments of Neuroscience and Computer Science USC, Los Angeles, 90089 [email protected] Abstract Many real-world problems have complicated objective functions. To optimize such functions, humans utilize sophisticated sequential decision-making strategies. Many optimization algorithms have also been developed for this same purpose, but how do they compare to humans in terms of both performance and behavior? We try to unravel the general underlying algorithm people may be using while searching for the maximum of an invisible 1D function. Subjects click on a blank screen and are shown the ordinate of the function at each clicked abscissa location. Their task is to find the function?s maximum in as few clicks as possible. Subjects win if they get close enough to the maximum location. Analysis over 23 non-maths undergraduates, optimizing 25 functions from different families, shows that humans outperform 24 well-known optimization algorithms. Bayesian Optimization based on Gaussian Processes, which exploits all the x values tried and all the f (x) values obtained so far to pick the next x, predicts human performance and searched locations better. In 6 follow-up controlled experiments over 76 subjects, covering interpolation, extrapolation, and optimization tasks, we further confirm that Gaussian Processes provide a general and unified theoretical account to explain passive and active function learning and search in humans. 1 Introduction To find the best solution to a complex real-life search problem, e.g., discovering the best drug to treat a disease, one often has few chances for experimenting, as each trial is lengthy and costly. Thus, a decision maker, be it human or machine, should employ an intelligent strategy to minimize the number of trials. This problem has been addressed in several fields under different names, including active learning [1], Bayesian optimization [2, 3], optimal search [4, 5, 6], optimal experimental design [7, 8], hyper-parameter optimization, and others. Optimal decision making algorithms show significant promise in many applications, including human-machine interaction, intelligent tutoring systems, recommendation systems, sensor placement, robotics control, and many more. Here, inspired by the optimization literature, we design and conduct a series of experiments to understand human search and active learning behavior. We compare and contrast humans with standard optimization algorithms, to learn how well humans perform 1D function optimization and to discover which algorithm best approaches or explains human search strategies. This contrast hints toward developing even more sophisticated algorithms and offers important theoretical and practical implications for our understanding of human learning and cognition. We aim to decipher how humans choose the next x to be queried when attempting to locate the maximum of an unknown 1D function. We focus on the following questions: Do humans perform local search (for instance by randomly choosing a location and following the gradient of the function, e.g., gradient descent), or do they try to capture the overall structure of the underlying function (e.g., polynomial, linear, exponential, smoothness), or some combination of both? Do the sets of sample x locations queried by humans resemble those of some algorithms more than others? Do humans follow a Bayesian approach, and if so which selection criterion might they employ? How do humans balance between exploration and exploitation during optimization? Can Gaussian processes [9] offer a unifying theory of human function learning and active search? 1 2 Experiments and Results We seek to study human search behavior directly on 1D function optimization, for the first time systematically and explicitly. We are motivated by two main reasons: 1) Optimization has been intensively studied and today a large variety of optimization algorithms and theoretical analyses exist, 2) 1D search allows us to focus on basic search mechanisms utilized by humans, eliminating real-world confounds such as context, salient distractors, semantic information, etc. A total of 99 undergraduate students with basic calculus knowledge from our university participated in 7 experiments. They were from the following majors: Neurosciences, Biology, Psychology, Kinesiology, Business, English, Economics, and Political Sciences (i.e., not Maths or Engineering). Subjects had normal or corrected-to-normal vision and were compensated by course credits. They were seated behind a 42" computer monitor at a distance of 130 cm (subtending a field of view of 43? ? 25? ). The experimental methods were approved by our university?s Institutional Review Board (IRB). Block 1 (TRAINING) 1 89 80 70 function no. 1 Total Reward: 11 Tries (penalty)= 9 Hit , pls click on the continue botton for the next. 7 5 1 6 60 50 click here to terminate. 90 Function Value 2.1 Experiment 1: Optimization 1 Participants were 23 students (6 m, 17 f) aged 18 to 22 (19.52 ? 1.27 yr). 0.8 Original function Histogram of clicks Histogram of first clicks 0.6 y 0.4 Stimuli were a variety of 25 1D functions with different characteristics 0.2 (linear/non-linear, differentiable/non0 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 100 200 300 differentiable, etc.), including: Polyx nomial, Exponential, Gaussian, Dirac, Figure 1: Left: a sample search trial. The unknown function (blue curve) Sinc, etc. The goal was to cover many was only displayed at the end of training trials. During search for the function?s maximum, a red dot at (x, f (x)) was drawn for each x selected by participants. cases and to investigate the generaliza- Right: A sample function and the pdf of human clicks. tion power of algorithms and humans. To generate a polynomial stimulus of degree m (m > 2), we randomly generated m + 1 pairs of (x, y) points and fitted a polynomial to them using least squares regression. Coefficients were saved for later use. Other functions were defined with pre-specified formulas and parameters (e.g., Schwefel, Psi). We generated two sets of stimuli, one for training and the other for testing. The x range was fixed to [?300 300] and the y range varied depending on the function. Fig. 1 shows a sample search trial during training, as well as smoothed distribution of clicked locations for first clicks, and progressively for up to 15 clicks. In the majority of cases, the distribution of clicks starts with a strong leftward bias for the first clicks, then progressively focusing around the true function maximum as subjects make more clicks and approach the maximum. Subjects clicked less on smooth regions and more on spiky regions (near local maxima). This indicates that they sometimes followed the local gradient direction of the function. 40 4 2 30 3 20 10 0 ?300 x-tolerance ?200 ?100 0 100 200 300 Selection Panel Procedure. Subjects were informed about the goal of the experiment. They were asked to ?find the maximum value (highest point) of a function in as few clicks as possible?. During the experiment, each subject went through 30 test trials (in random order). Starting from a blank screen, subjects could click on any abscissa x location, and we would show them the corresponding f (x) ordinate. Previously clicked points remained on the screen until the end of the trial. Subjects were instructed to terminate the trial when they thought they had reached the maximum location within a margin of error (xTolh =6) shown at the bottom of the screen (small blue line in Fig. 1). This design was intentional to both obtain information about the human satisficing process and to make the comparison fair with algorithms (e.g., as opposed to automatically terminating a trial if humans happened to click near the maximum). We designed the following procedure to balance speed vs. accuracy. For each trial, a subject gained A points for ?HIT?, lost A points for ?MISS?, and lost 1 point for each click. Scores of subjects were kept on the record, to compete against other subjects. The subject with the highest score was rewarded with a prize. We used A = 10 (for 13 subjects) and A = 20 (for 10 subjects); since we did not observe a significant difference across both conditions, here we collapsed all the data. We highlighted to subjects that they should decide carefully where to click next, to minimize the number of clicks before hitting the maximum location. They were not allowed to click outside the function area. Before the experiment, we had a training session in which subjects completed 5 trials on a different set of functions than those used in the real experiment. The purpose was for subjects to understand the task and familiarize themselves to the general complexity and shapes of functions (i.e., developing a prior). We revealed the entire function at the end of each training trial only (not after test trials). The maximum number of clicks was set to 40. To prohibit subjects from using the vertical extent of the screen to guess the maximum location, we randomly elevated or lowered the function plot. We also recorded the time spent on each trial. 2 hit rate function call Human Results. On average, over all 25 functions and 23 subjects, subjects attempted 12.8 ? 0.4 tries to reach the target. Average hit rate (i.e., whether subjects found the maximum) over all trials was 0.74 ? 0.04. Across subjects, standard deviations of the number of tries and hit rates were 3.8 and 0.74. Relatively low values here suggest inter-subject consistency in our task. Each trial lasted about 22 ? 4 seconds. Figure 2 shows examHard Easy ple hard and easy stimuli (f n are function numbers, see Supplef16 f20 ment). The Dirac function had the most clicks (16.5), lowest hit f2 f17 rate (0.26), and longest time (32.4?18.8 s). Three other most diff8 f12 f7 ficult functions, in terms of function calls were, listed as (function f20 f22 number, number of clicks): {(f2,15.8), (f8,15.2), (f12,15.1)}. The f17 easiest ones were: {(f16,9.3), (f20, 9.9), (f17, 10)}. For hit rate, f24 f15 the hardest functions were: {(f24,0.35), (f15,0.45), (f7,0.56)}, Figure 2: Difficult and easy stimuli. and the easiest ones: {(f20,1), (f17,1), (f22,0.95)}. Subjects were faster on Gaussian (f 17) and Exponential (f 20) functions (16.2 and 16.9 seconds). Model-based Results. We compared human data to 24 Table 1: Baseline algorithms. We set maxItr well-established optimization algorithms. These base- to 500 when the only parameter is xTolm . line methods employ various search strategies (local, Algorithm Type Parameters global, gradient-based, etc.) and often have several pa- FminSearch [10] Loc. xTolm = 0.005:0.005:0.1 L xTolm = 5e-7:1e-6:1e-5 rameters (Table 1). Here, we emphasize one to two FminBnd FminUnc L xTolm = 0.01:0.05:1 of the most important parameters for each algorithm. minFunc-# L xTolm = 0.01:0.05:1 L xTolm = 0.001:0.001:0.005 The following algorithms are considered: local search GD = 0.1:0.1:0.5; tol = 1e-6 (e.g., Nelder-Mead simplex/FminSearch [10]); multi- mult-FminSearch Glob. ? xTolm = 0.005, starts = 1:10 start local search; population-based (e.g., Genetic Al- mult-FminBnd G xTolm = 5e-7, starts = 1:10 xTolm = 0.01, starts = 1:10 gorithms (GA) [12, 13], Particle Swarm Optimization mult-FminUnc G [11] G pop = 1:10; gen = 1:20 (PSO) [11]); DIvided RECTangles (DIRECT) [15]; and PSO GA [12, 13] G pop and gen = 5:10:100 Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques [2, 3]. BO generation gap = 0.01 G stopTemp = 0.01:0.05:1 constructs a probabilistic model for f (?) using all previ- SA [14] ? = 0.1:0.1:1 ous observations and then exploits this model to make DIRECT [15] G maxItr = 5:5:70 decisions about where along X to evaluate the function Random G maxItr = 5:5:150 G maxItr = 5:5:35 next. This results in a procedure that can find the max- GP [2, 3] imum of difficult non-convex, non-differentiable functions with relatively few evaluations, at the cost of performing more computation to determine the next point to try. BO methods are based on Gaussian processes (GP) [9] and several selection criteria. Here we use a GP with a zero mean prior and a RBF covariance kernel. Two parameters of the kernel function, kernel width and signal variance, are learned from our training functions. We consider 5 types of selection criteria for BO: Maximum Mean (MM) [16], Maximum Variance (MV) [17], Maximum Probability of Improving (MPI) [18, 19], Maximum Expected Improvement (MEI)[20, 21], and Upper Confidence Bounds (UCB) [22]. Further, we consider two BO methods by Osborne et al. [23], with and without gradient information (See supplement). To measure to what degree human search behavior deviates from a random process, we devise a Random search algorithm which chooses the next point uniformly random from [?300 300] without replacement. We also run the Gradient Descent (GD) algorithm and its descendants denoted as minFunc-# in Table 1 where # refers to different methods (conjugate gradient (cg), quasi-Newton (qnewton), etc.). To evaluate which algorithm better explains human 1D search behavior, we propose two measures: 1) an algorithm should have about the same performance, in terms of hit rate and function calls, as humans (1st-level analysis), and 2) it should have similar search statistics as humans, for example in terms of searched locations or search order (2nd-level analysis). For fair human-algorithm comparison, we simulate for algorithms the same conditions as in our behavioral experiment, when counting a trial as a hit or a miss (e.g., using same xTolh ). It is worth noting that in our behavioral experiment we did our best not to provide information to humans that we cannot provide to algorithms. In the 1st-level analysis, we tuned algorithms for their best accuracy by performing a grid search over their parameters to sample the hit-rate vs. function-calls plane. Table 1 shows two stopping conditions that are considered: 1) we either run an algorithm until a tolerance on x is met (i.e., |xi?1 ? xi | < xTolm ), or 2) we allow it to run up to a variable (maximum) number of function calls (maxItr). For each parameter setting (e.g., a specified population size and generations in GA), since each run of an algorithm may result in a different answer, we run it 200 times to reach a reliable estimate of its performance. To generate a starting point for algorithms, we randomly sampled from 3 the distribution of human first clicks (over all subjects and functions, p(x1 ); see Fig. 1). As in the behavioral experiment, after termination of an algorithm, a hit is declared when: ? xi ? B : |xi ? argmaxx f (x)| ? xTolh , where set B includes the history of searched locations in a search trial. Fig. 3 shows search accuracy of optimization algorithms. As shown, humans are better than all algorithms tested, if hit rate and function calls are weighed equally (i.e., best is to approach the bottom-right corner of Fig. 3). That is, undergraduates from non-maths majors managed to beat the state of the art in numerical optimization. BO algorithms with GP-UCB and GP-MEI criteria are closer to human performance (so are GP-Osborne methods). The DIRECT method did very well and found the maximum with ? 30 function calls. It can achieve better-than-human hit rate, with a number of function calls which is smaller than BO algorithms, though still higher than humans (it was not able to reach human performance with equal number of function calls). As expected, some algorithms reach human accuracy but with much higher number of function calls (e.g., GA, mult-start-#), sometimes by up to 3 orders of magnitude. We chose the following promising algorithms for the 2nd-level analysis: DIRECT, GP-Osborne-G, GP-Osborne, GP-MPI, GP-MUI, GP-MEI, GP-UCB, GP-UCB-Opt, GP-MV, PSO, and Random. GP-UCB-Opt is basically the same as GP-UCB with its exploration/exploitation parameter (? in ?x + ??x ; GP mean + GP std) learned from train data for each function. These algorithms were chosen because their performance curve in the first analysis intersected a window where accuracy is half of humans and function call is twice as humans (black rectangle in Fig. 3). We first find those parameters that led these algorithms to their closest performance to humans. We then run them again and this time save their searched locations for further analysis. We design 4 evaluation scores to quantify similarities between algorithms and humans on each function: 1) mean sequence distance between an algorithm?s searched locations and human searched locations, in each trial for the first 5 10 2 clicks, 2) mean shortest distance between an algorithm?s searched locations and all human clicks (i.e., point matching), 3) agreement between probability distributions of searched locations by all humans and an algorithm, and 4) agreement between pdfs of normalized step sizes 1 Human 10 (to [0 1] on each trial). Let pm (t) and ph (t) be pdfs of the search statistic t by an algorithm and humans, respectively. The agreement between pm and ph is defined as pm (argmaxt ph (t)) (i.e., the value of an algorithm?s pdf at the loca0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 hit rate tion of maximum for human pdf). Median scores (over all 25 functions) are depicted in Fig. 4. Dis- Figure 3: Human vs. algorithm 1D search accuracy. tance score is lower for Bayesian models compared to DIRECT, Random, PSO, and GP-Osborne algorithms (Fig. 4.a). Point matching distances are lower for GP-MPI, and GP-UCB (Fig. 4.b). These two algorithms also show higher agreement to humans in terms of searched locations (Fig. 4.c). The clearest pattern happens over step size agreement with BO methods (except GP-MV) being closest to humans (Fig. 4.d). GP-MPI and GP-UCB show higher resemblance to human search behavior over all scores. Further, we measure the regret of algorithms and humans defined as fmax (?) ? f ? where f ? is the best value found so far for up to 15 function calls averaged over all trials. As shown in Fig. 4.e, BO models approach the maximum of f (?) as fast as humans. Hence, although imperfect, BO algorithms overall are the most similar to humans, out of all algorithms tested. FminSearch FminBnd Fminunc PSO multFminS multFminB multFminU GA GD SA Random function calls GP?Osborne GP?Osborne?G Direct GP?MUI minFunc?cg minFunc?csd minFunc?sd minFunc?qnewton minFunc?lbfgs GP?MM GP?MPI GP?UCB-Opt GP?UCB GP?MEI GP?MV Three reasons prompt us to consider BO methods as promising candidates for modeling human basic search: 1) BO methods perform efficient search in a way that resembles human behavior in terms of accuracy and search statistics (results of Exp. 1), 2) BO methods exploit GP which offers a principled and elegant approach for adding structure to Bayesian models (in contrast to purely data-driven Bayesian). Furthermore, the sequential nature of the BO and updating the GP posterior after each function call seems a natural strategy humans might be employing, and 3) GP models explain function learning in humans over simple functional relationships (linear and quadratic) [24]. Function learning and search mechanisms are linked in the sense that, to conduct efficient search, one needs to know the search landscape and to progressively update one?s knowledge about it. 4 GP-MEI GP-MPI GP-MUI GP-MV GP-UCB-Opt DIRECT GP-UCB GP?Osborne GP?Osbo.?G GP-MEI GP-MPI GP-MUI GP-MV GP-UCB-Opt DIRECT GP-UCB regret (fmax - f*) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 PSO Random GP?Osborne GP?Osb.?G DIRECT GP-UCB GP-MEI GP-MPI GP-MUI GP-MV GP-UCB-Opt Human 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 DIRECT 0 0.7 GP-UCB GP-MEI GP-MPI GP-MUI GP-MV GP-UCB-Opt 0.1 0.8 GP?Osborne 0.2 e 1 0.8 GP?Osbo.?G 0.3 agreement on search step sizes 0.4 1 GP?Osborne GP?Osbo.?G FminSearch DIRECT GP-UCB GP-MEI GP-MPI GP-MUI GP-MV GP-UCB-Opt GP?Osborne GP?Osbo.?G FminBnd PSO Random 0.5 FminBnd PSO Random 1 d 0.6 FminSearch 2 0 100 FminSearch agreement on searched locations 150 3 FminBnd PSO Random point matching distance 200 c 4 FminBnd PSO Random sequence distance 250 FminSearch b a 0.1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 function call Figure 4: Results of our second-level analysis. The lower the distance and the higher the agreement, the better (red arrows). Boxes represent median (red line) and 25 th, 75 th percentiles. Panel (e) shows average regret of algorithms and humans (f ? is normalized to fmax for each trial separately). We thus designed 6 additional controlled experiments to further explore GP as a unified computational principle guiding human function learning and active search. In particular, we investigate the basic idea that humans might be following a GP, at least in the continuous domain, and change some of its properties to cope with different tasks. For example, humans may use GP to choose the next point to dynamically balance exploration vs. exploitation (e.g., in search task), or to estimate the function value of a point (e.g., in function interpolation). In experiments 2 to 5, subjects performed interpolation and extrapolation tasks, as well as active versions of these tasks by choosing points to help them learn about the functions. In experiments 6 and 7, we then return to the optimization task, for a detailed model-based analysis of human search behavior over functions from the same family. Note that many real-world problems can be translated into our synthetic tasks here. We used polynomial functions of degree 2, 3, and 5 as our stimuli (denoted as Deg2, Deg3, and Deg5, respectively). Two different sets of functions were generated for training and testing, shown in Fig. 5. For each function type, subjects completed 10 training trials followed by 30 testing trials. As in Exp. 1, function plots were disclosed to subjects only during training. To keep subjects engaged, in addition to the competition for a prize, we showed them the magnitude of error during both training and testing sessions. In experiments 2 to 6, we fitted a GP to different types of functions using the same set of (x, y) points shown to subjects during training (Fig. 6). A grid search was conducted to learn GP parameters from the training functions to predict subjects? test data. 2.2 Experiments 2 & 3: Interpolation and Active Interpolation Participants. Twenty subjects (7m, 13f) aged 18 to 22 participated (mean: 19.75 ? 1.06 yr). Procedure. In the interpolation task, on each function, subjects were shown 4 points x ? {?300, a, b, 300} along with their f (x) values. Points a and b were generated randomly once in advance and were then tied to each function. Subjects were asked to guess the function value at the center (x = 0) as accurately as possible. In the active interpolation task, the same 4 points as in interpolation were shown to subjects. Subjects were first asked to choose a 5th point between [?300 300] to see its y = f (x) value. They were then asked to guess the function value at a randomly-chosen 6th x location as accurately as possible. Subjects were instructed to pick the most informative fifth point regarding estimating the function value at the follow-up random x (See Fig. 6). Results. Fig. 7.a shows mean distance of human clicks from the GP mean at x = 0 over test trials (averaged over absolute pairwise distances between clicks and the GP) in the interpolation task. Human errors rise as functions become more complicated. Distances of the GP and the actual function from humans are the same over Deg2 and Deg3 functions (no significant difference in medians, Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p > 0.05). Interestingly, on Deg5 functions, GP is closer to human clicks than the actual function (signed-rank test, p = 0.053) implying that GP captures clicks well in this case. GP did fit the human data even better than the actual function, thereby lending support to our hypothesis that GP may be a reasonable approximation to human function estimation. Could it be that subjects locally fit a line to the two middle points to guess f (0)? To evaluate this hypothesis, we measured the distance, at x = 0, from human clicks to a line passing through (a, f (a)) and (b, f (b)). By construction of our stimuli, a line model explains human data well on Deg3 and Deg5, but fails dramatically on Deg2 which deflect around the center. GP is significantly better than the line model on Deg2 (p < 0.0005), while being as good on Deg3 and Deg5 (p = 0.78). Deg2-Train 100 Deg2-Test 100 Deg3-Train 100 Deg3-Test 100 Deg5-Train 100 Deg5-Test 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 y 60 40 0 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 x 100 200 0 300 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 x 100 200 300 0 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 x 100 200 300 0 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 x 100 200 300 0 ?300 20 ?200 ?100 0 x 100 200 0 300 ?300 Figure 5: Train and test polynomial stimuli used in experiments 2 through 6. 5 ?200 ?100 0 x 100 200 300 Active Interpolation GP mean GP std Actual func y 80 human clicks (mean + std) GP-MV GP-UCB GP-MPI GP-MEI 50 polynomial deg 3 40 20 0 x 100 200 mean human click 2 80 80 60 60 mean human click 1 300 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 100 200 0 300 ?300 ?200 ?100 40 0 100 200 Optimization 3 100 100 line 50 Optimization 2 100 100 0 ?300 ?200 ?100 Active Extrapolation deg 2 150 human shuffled rand rand max variance 60 0 Extrapolation 200 100 mean human mean GP Interpolation 100 50 40 20 0 20 300 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 100 200 human clicks histogram of clicks 0 0 300 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 100 200 300 ?50 ?300 ?200 ?100 0 100 200 300 Figure 6: Illustration of experiments. In extrapolation, polynomials (degrees 1, 2 & 3) fail to explain our data. Another possibility could be that humans choose a point randomly on the y axis, thus discarding the shape of the function. To control for this, we devised two random selection strategies. The first one uniformly chooses y values between 0 and 100. The second one, known as shuffled random (SRand), takes samples from the distribution of y values selected by other subjects over all functions. The purpose is to account for possible systematic biases in human selections. We then calculate the average of the pairwise distances between human clicks and 200 draws from each random model. Both random models fail to predict human answers on all types of functions (significantly worse than GP, signed-rank test ps < 0.05). One advantage of the GP over other models is providing a level of uncertainty at every x. Fig. 7.a (inset) demonstrates similar uncertainty patterns for humans and the GP, showing that both uncertainties (at x = 0) rise as functions become more complicated. Interpolation results suggest that humans try to capture the shape of functions. If this is correct, we expect that humans will tend to click on high uncertainty regions (according to GP std) in the active interpolation task (see Fig. 6 for an example). Fig. 7.b shows the average of GP standard deviation at locations of human selections. Humans did not always choose x locations with the highest uncertainty (shown in red in Fig. 7.b). One reason for this might be that several regions had about the same std. Another possibility is because subjects had slight preference to click toward center. However, GP std at human-selected locations was significantly higher than the GP std at random and SRand points, over all types of functions (signed-rank test, ps < 1e?4; non-significant on Deg2 vs. SRand p = 0.18). This result suggests that since humans did not know in advance where a follow-up query might happen, they chose high-uncertainty locations according to GP, as clicking at those locations would most shrink the overall uncertainty about the function. 2.3 Experiments 4 & 5: Extrapolation and Active Extrapolation Participants. 16 new subjects (7m, 9f) completed experiments 4 and 5 (Age: 19.62 ? 1.45 yr). Procedure. Three points x ? {?300, c, 100} and their y values were shown to subjects. Point c was random, specific to each function. In the extrapolation task, subjects were asked to guess the function value at x = 200 as accurately as possible (Fig. 6). In the active extrapolation task, subjects were asked to choose the most informative 4th point in [?300 100] regarding estimating f (200). GP 35 12 18 Human GP 25 6 15 randY shuffledRandY 5 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 8 human random shuffled Random max std min std 4 0 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 d) Active Extrapolation randY shuffledRandY 30 19 20 Human 10 actual func GP line GP 10 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 mean standard deviation of chosen locations line 16 c) Extrapolation 40 STD actual func mean distance of human selections from a model 45 b) Active Interpolation mean standard deviation of chosen locations a) Interpolation STD mean distance of human selections from a model Results. A similar analysis as in the interpolation task is conducted. As seen in Fig. 7.c, in alignment with interpolation results, humans are good at Deg2 and Deg3 but fail on Deg5, and so does the GP model. Here again, with Deg5, GP and humans are closer to each other than to the actual function, further suggesting that their behaviors and errors are similar. There is no significant difference between GP and the actual functions over all three function types (signed-rank test; p > 0.25). Interestingly, a line model fitted to points c and 100 is impaired significantly (p < 1e?5 vs. GP) over all function types (Fig. 6). Both random strategies also performed significantly worse than GP on this task (signed-rank test; ps < 1e?6). SRand performs better than uniform random, indicating 16 14 human random shuffled Random max std min std 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 Figure 7: a) Mean distance of human clicks from models. Errors bars show standard error of the mean (s.e.m) over test trials. Inset shows the standard deviation of humans and the GP model at x = 0. b) mean GP std at human vs. random clicks in active interpolation. c and d correspond to a and b, for the extrapolation task. 6 a) distance of human clicks from location of max Q b) distance of random clicks from location of max Q c) left: mean selected function values right: mean selected GP values 0.8 100 100 180 d) mean selected GP std values 180 rand ? mean human1 ? mean 140 human1 ? std rand ? std 140 0.7 90 SRand?mean human2 ? mean 100 100 80 60 60 70 0.6 human1 human2 SRand?std human2 ? std human1 human2 0.5 0.4 random shuffled Random 0.3 20 20 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 random 60 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 shuffled Random 0.2 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 Deg2 Deg3 Deg5 Figure 8: Results of the optimization task 2. a and b) distance of human and random clicks from locations of max Q (i.e., GP mean and max GP std). c) actual function and GP mean values at human and random clicks. d) normalized GP standard deviation at human vs. random clicks. Errors bars show s.e.m over test trials. existence of systematic biases in human clicks. Subjects learned that f (200) did not happen on extreme lows or highs (same argument is true for f (0) in interpolation). As in the interpolation task, GP and human standard deviations rise as functions become more complex (Fig. 7.c; inset). Active extrapolation (Fig. 7.d), similar to active interpolation, shows that humans tended to choose locations with significantly higher uncertainty than uniform and SRand points, for all function types (ps < 0.005). Some subjects in this task tended to click toward the right (close to 100), maybe to obtain a better idea of the curvature between 100 and 200. This is perhaps why the ratio of human std to max std is lower in active extrapolation compared to active interpolation (0.75 vs. 0.82), suggesting that maybe humans used an even more sophisticated strategy on this task. 2.4 Experiment 6: Optimization 2 Participants were another 21 subjects (4m, 17f) in the age range of 18 to 22 (mean: 20 ? 1.18). Procedure. Subjects were shown function values at x ? {?300, ?200, 200, 300} and were asked to find the x location where they think the function?s maximum is. They were allowed to make two equally important clicks and were shown the function value after each one. For quadratic functions, we only used 13 concave-down functions that have one unique maximum. Results. We perform two analyses shown in Fig. 8. In the first one, we measure the mean distance of human clicks (1st and 2nd clicks) from the location of the maximum GP mean and maximum GP standard deviation (Fig. 8.a). We updated the GP after the first click. We hypothesized that the human first click would be at a location of high GP variance (to reduce uncertainty about the function), while the second click would be close to the location of highest GP mean (estimated function maximum). However, results showed that human 1st clicks were close to the max GP mean and not very close to the max GP std. Human 2nd clicks were even closer (signedrank test, p < 0.001) to the max GP mean and further away from the max GP std (p < 0.001). These two observations together suggest that humans might have been following a Gaussian process with a selection criterion heavily biased towards finding the maximum, as opposed to shrinking the most uncertain region. Repeating this analysis for random clicks (uniform and SRand) shows quite the opposite trend (Fig. 8.b). Random locations are further apart from maximum of the GP mean (compared to human clicks) while being closer to the maximum of the GP std point (compared to human clicks). This cross pattern between human and random clicks (wrt. GP mean and GP std) shows a systematic search strategy utilized by humans. Distances of human clicks from the max GP mean and max GP std rise as functions become more complicated. In the second analysis (Fig. 8.c), we measure actual function and GP values at human and random clicks. Humans had significantly higher function values at their 2nd clicks; p < 1e?4 (so was true using GP; p < 0.05). Values at random points are significantly lower than human clicks. Humans were less accurate as functions became more complex, as indicated by lower function values. Finally, Fig. 8.d shows that humans chose points with significantly less std (normalized to the entire function) in their 2nd clicks compared to random and first clicks. Human 1st clicks have higher std than uniform random clicks. 2.5 Experiment 7: Optimization 3 Participants were 19 new subjects (6m, 13f) in the age range of 19 to 25 (mean: 20.26 ? 1.64 yr). Stimuli. Functions were sampled from a Gaussian process with predetermined parameters to assure functions come from the same family and resemble each other (as opposed to Exp. 1; See Fig. 6). Procedure was the same as in Exp. 1. Number of train and test trials, in order, were 10 and 20. 7 mean distance from max GP mean and std 1 b) Results. Subjects had average accuracy of 250 a) 0.76 ? 0.11 (0.5 ? 0.18 on train) over all 0 10 0. 8 subjects and functions, and average clicks 200 of 8.86 ? 1.12 (7.15 ? 1.2 on train) before ending a search trial. To investigate 150 0. 6 ?1 10 the sequential strategy of subjects, we progressively updated a GP using a subject?s 0. 4 ?2 clicks on each trial, and exploited this GP 100 10 0 5 10 15 to evaluate the next click of the same sub0. 2 50 ject. In other words, we attempted to know normalized GP mean human? max GP mean to what degree a subject follows a GP. Renormalized GP std human? max GP std 0 0 sults are shown in Fig. 9. The regret of the 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 0 5 10 15 number of clicks number of clicks GP model and humans decline with more Figure 9: Exploration vs. exploitation balance in Optimization 3 task. clicks, implying that humans chose informative clicks regarding optimization (figure inset). Humans converge to the maximum location slightly faster than a GP fitted to their data, and much faster than random. Fig. 9.a shows that subjects get closer to the location of maximum GP mean and further away from max GP std (for 15 clicks). Fig. 9.b shows the normalized mean and standard deviation of human clicks (from the GP model), averaged over all trials. At about 6.4 clicks, subjects are at 58% of the function maximum while they have reduced the variance by 42%. Interestingly, we observe that humans tended to click on higher uncertainty regions (according to GP) in their first 6 clicks (average over all subjects and functions), then gradually relying more on the GP mean (i.e., balancing exploration vs. exploitation). Results of optimization tasks suggest that human clicks during search for a maximum of a 1D function can be predicted by a Gaussian process model. 3 regret human random shuffled random GP Discussion and Conclusion Our contributions are twofold: First, we found a striking capability of humans in 1D function optimization. In spite of the relative naivety of our subjects (not maths or engineering majors), the high human efficiency in our search task does open the challenge that even more efficient optimization algorithms must be possible. Additional pilot investigations not shown here suggest that humans may perform even better in optimization when provided with first and second derivatives. Following this road may lead to designing efficient selection criteria for BO methods (for example new ways to augment gradient information with BO). However, it remains to be addressed how our findings scale up to higher dimensions and benchmark optimization problems. Second, we showed that Gaussian processes provide a reasonable (though not perfect) unifying theoretical account of human function learning, active learning, and search (GP plus a selection strategy). Results of experiments 2 to 5 lead to an interesting conclusion: In interpolation and extrapolation tasks, subjects try to minimize the error between their estimation and the actual function, while in active tasks they change their objective function to explore uncertain regions. In the optimization task, subjects progressively sample the function, update their belief and use this belief again to find the location of maximum. (i.e., exploring new parts of the search space and exploiting parts that look promising). Our findings support previous work by Griffiths et al. [24] (also [25, 26, 27]). Yet, while they showed that Gaussian processes can predict human errors and difficulty in function learning, here we focused on explaining human active behavior with GP, thus extending explanatory power of GP one step ahead. One study showed promising evidence that our results may extend to a larger class of natural tasks. Najemnik and Geisler [6, 28, 29] proposed a Bayesian ideal-observer model to explain human eye movement strategies during visual search for a small Gabor patch hidden in noise. Their model computes posterior probabilities and integrates information across fixations optimally. This process can be formulated with BO with an exploitative search mechanism (i.e., GP-MM). Castro et al. [30] studied human active learning on the well-understood problem of finding the threshold in a binary search problem. They showed that humans perform better when they can actively select samples, and their performance is nearly optimal (below the theoretical upper bound). However, they did not address how humans choose the next best sample. One aspect of our study which we did not elaborate much here, is the satisficing mechanisms humans used in our task to decide when to end a trial. Further modeling of our data may be helpful to develop new stopping criteria for active learning methods. Related efforts have studied strategies that humans may use to quickly find an object (i.e., search, active vision) [31, 32, 33, 34, 35], optimal foraging [36], and optimal search theories [4, 5], which we believe could all now be revisited with GP as an underlying mechanism. Supported by NSF (CCF-1317433, CMMI-1235539) and ARO (W911NF-11-1-0046, W911NF-12-1-0433). 8 References [1] B. Settles, ?Active learning.,? in Morgan & Claypool, 2012. 1 [2] D. 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Latent Structured Active Learning Wenjie Luo TTI Chicago [email protected] Alexander G. Schwing ETH Zurich [email protected] Raquel Urtasun TTI Chicago [email protected] Abstract In this paper we present active learning algorithms in the context of structured prediction problems. To reduce the amount of labeling necessary to learn good models, our algorithms operate with weakly labeled data and we query additional examples based on entropies of local marginals, which are a good surrogate for uncertainty. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the task of 3D layout prediction from single images, and show that good models are learned when labeling only a handful of random variables. In particular, the same performance as using the full training set can be obtained while only labeling ?10% of the random variables. 1 Introduction Most real-world applications are structured, i.e., they are composed of multiple random variables which are related. For example, in natural language processing, we might be interested in parsing sentences syntactically. In computer vision, we might want to predict the depth of each pixel, or its semantic category. In computational biology, given a sequence of proteins (e.g., lethal and edema factors, protective antigen) we might want to predict the 3D docking of the anthrax toxin. While individual variables could be considered independently, it has been demonstrated that taking relations into account improves prediction performance significantly. Prediction in structured models is typically performed by maximizing a scoring function over the space of all possible outcomes, an NP-hard task for most graphical models. Traditional learning algorithms for structured problems tackle the supervised setting [16, 33, 11], where input-output pairs are given and each structured output is fully labeled. Obtaining fully labeled examples might, however, be very cumbersome as structured models often involve a large number of random variables, e.g., in semantic segmentation, we have to label several million random variables, one for each pixel. Furthermore, obtaining ground truth is sometimes difficult as it potentially requires accessing extra sensors, e.g., laser scanners in the case of stereo. This is even more extreme in the medical domain, where obtaining extra labels is sometimes not even possible, e.g., when tests are not available. Thus, reducing the amount of labeled examples required for learning the scoring function is key for the success of structured prediction in real-world applications. The active learning setting is particularly beneficial as it has the potential to considerably reduce the amount of supervision required to learn a good model, by querying only the most informative examples. In the structured case, active learning can be generalized to query only subparts of the graph for each example, reducing the amount of necessary labeling even further. While a variety of active learning approaches exists for the case of classification and regression, the structured case has been less popular, perhaps because of its intrinsic computational difficulties as we have to deal with exponentially sized output spaces. Existing approaches typically consider the case where exact inference is possible [7], label the full output space [7, 22], or rely on computationally expensive processes that require inference for each possible outcome of each random variable [34]. The latter is computationally infeasible for most graphical models. 1 In contrast, in this paper we present efficient approximate approaches for general graphical models where exact inference is intractable. In particular, we propose to select which parts to label based on the entropy of the local marginal distributions. Our active learning algorithms exploit recently developed weakly supervised methods for structured prediction [28], showing that we can benefit from unlabeled examples and exploit the marginal distributions computed during learning. Furthermore, computation is re-used at each active learning iteration, improving efficiency significantly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of 3D room layout estimation from single images, and show that state-of-the-art results are achieved by employing much fewer manual interactions (i.e., labels). In particular, we match the performance of the state-of-the-art in this task [27] while only labeling ?10% of the random variables. In the remainder of the paper we first review learning methods for structured prediction. We then propose our active learning algorithms, and show our experimental evaluation followed by a discussion on related work and conclusions. 2 Maximum Likelihood Structure Prediction We begin by reviewing structured prediction approaches that employ both fully labeled training sets as well as those that handle latent variables. Of particular interest to us are probabilistic formulations since we employ entropies of local probability distributions as our criteria for deciding which parts of the graph to label during each active learning step. Let x ? X be the input space (e.g., an image or a sentence), and let s ? S be the structured labeled space that we are interested in predicting (e.g., an image segmentation or a parse tree). We define ? : X ? S ? RF to be a mapping from input and label space to an F -dimensional feature space. Here we consider log-linear distributions pw (s|x) describing the probability over a structured label space S given an object x ? X as  pw (s|x) ? exp w> ?(x, s) . (1) During learning, we are interested in estimating the parameters w ? RF of the log-linear distribution such that the score w> ?(x, s) is high if s ? S is a ?good? label for x ? X . 2.1 Supervised Setting To define ?good,? in the supervised setting we are given a training set D = {(xi , si )N i=1 } containing N pairs, each composed of an input x ? X and some fully labeled data s ? S. In addition, we are often able to compare the fitness of an estimate s? ? S for a training sample (x, s) ? D via what we refer to as the task-loss function `(x,s) (? s). Its purpose is very much like enforcing a distance between the hyperplane defined by the parameters and the respective sample when considering the popular max-margin setting. We incorporate this loss function into the learning process by considering the loss-augmented distribution p(x,s) (s|w) ? exp(w> ?(x, s) + `(x,y) (s)). (2) Intuitively it places more probability mass on those parts of the output space S that have a high loss, forcing the model to adapt to a more difficult setting than the one encountered at inference, where the loss is not present. Maximum likelihood learning aims at finding model parameters w which assign highest probability to the training set D. Assuming the data to be independent Q and identically distributed (i.i.d.), ourp goal is to minimize the negative log-posterior ? ln[p(w) (x,s)?D p(x,s) (s|w)] with p(w) ? e?kwkp being a prior on the model parameters. The cost function is therefore given by ! ! X X w> ?(x, s?) + `(x,y) (? s) C p > kwkp +  ln exp ? w ?(x, s) , (3) p  (x,y)?D s??S where we have included a parameter  to yield a soft-max function. Although being a convex function, the difficulty arises from the sum over exponentially many label configurations s?. Different algorithms have been proposed to solve this task. While efficient computation over treestructured models is required for convergence guarantees [16], approximations were suggested to achieve convergence even when working with loopy models [11]. 2 2.2 Dealing with Latent Variables In the weakly supervised setting, we are given a training set D = {(xi , yi )N i=1 } containing N pairs, each composed of an input x ? X and some partially labeled data y ? Y ? S. For every training pair, the label space S = Y ?H is divided into two non-intersecting subspaces Y and H. We refer to the missing information h ? H as hidden or latent. As before, we incorporate a task-loss function, and define the loss-augmented likelihood of a prediction y? ? Y when observing the pair (x, y) as X X ? p(x,y) (? y |w) ? p(x,y) (? y , h|w) = p(x,y) (? s|w), (4) ? h?H ? h?H with p(x,y) (? s|w) defined as in Eq. 2. The minimization of the negative log-posterior results in the difference of two convex terms as follows ? X X C ? ln kwkpp + exp p (x,y)?D s ??S w> ?(x, s?) + `(x,y) (? s)  ! ? ln X ? h?H exp !? ? + `c (y, h) ? w> ?(x, y, h) (x,y) ?,  with the first two terms being the sum of the log-prior and the logarithm of the partition function. For generality we allow different task-loss `, `c while noting that `c ? 0 in our experiments. Besides the previously outlined difficulty of exponentially sized product spaces, the cost function is no longer convex. Hence we generally employ expectation maximization (EM) or concave-convex procedure (CCCP) [37] type of approaches, i.e., we linearize the non-convex part at the current iterate before taking a step in the direction of the gradient of a convex function. More specifically, we follow Schwing et al. [28] and upper-bound the concave part via a minimization over a set of dual variables subsequently referred to as q(x,y) (h): X X C kwkpp +  ln exp p (x,y) s ??S w> ?(x, s?)+`(x,y) (? s)  ! ! c ? ? ?H(q(x,y) )?Eq(x,y) [w ?(x, y, h)+` (x, y, h)] . > To deal with the exponential complexity we notice that of the feature P frequently the k-th element P vector decomposes into local terms, i.e., ?k (x, s) = i?Vk,x ?k,i (x, si ) + ??Ek,x ?k,? (x, s? ). Vk,x represents the set indexing the unary potentials for the k-th feature of example (x, y). Similarly Ek,x denotes the set of all high-order variable interaction sets ? in the k-th feature of example (x, y). All variable indexes which are not observed are subsumed within the set H. Similarly all factors ? that contain variable i are summarized within the set N (i). We leverage the decomposition within the features to also approximate the entropy over the joint distribution q(x,y) (h) by local ones ranging over marginals. Furthermore, we approximate the marginal polytope by the local polytope. We deal with the summation over the output space objects s? ? S in the convex part in a similar manner. To this end we change to the dual space, employ the entropy approximations and transform the resulting surrogate function back to the primal space where we obtain Lagrange multipliers ? which enforce the marginalization constraints. Altogether we obtain an approximate primal program having the following form: min d,?,w s.t. f1 (w, d, ?) + f2 (d) + f3 (d) X d(x,y),? (h? ) = d(x,y),i (hi ) ?(x, y), i ? H, ? ? N (i), hi ? Si (5) h? \hi d(x,y),i , d(x,y),? ? ? with ? denoting probability simplexes. We refer the reader to [28] for the specific forms of these functions. Following EM or CCCP, this program is optimized by alternatively minimizing w.r.t. the local beliefs d to solve the latent variable prediction problem, and performing a gradient step w.r.t. the weights as well as block-coordinate descent steps to update the Lagrange multipliers ?. The latter is equivalent to solving a supervised conditional random field problem given the distribution over latent variables inferred in the preceding latent variable prediction step. We augment [28], and return not only the weights but also the local beliefs d which represent the joint distribution q(x,y) (h), i.e., a distribution over the latent space only. We summarize this process in Alg. 1. Note that only a local minimum is obtained as we are solving a non-convex problem. 3 Algorithm 1 latent structured prediction Input: data D, initial weights w repeat repeat //solve latent variable prediction problem mind f2 + f3 s.t. ?(x, y) d(x,y) ? D(x,y) until convergence //message passing update ?(x, y), i ? S ?(x,y),i ? ??(x,y),i (f1 + f2 ) = 0 //gradient step with step size ? w ? w ? ??w (f1 + f2 ) until convergence Output: weights w, beliefs d 3 Active Learning In the previous section, we defined the maximum likelihood estimators for learning in the supervised and weakly supervised setting. We now derive our active learning approaches. In the active learning L setting, we assume a given training set DS = {(xi , yi )N i=1 } containing NL pairs, each composed by an input x ? X and some partially labeled data y ? Y ? S. As before, for every training pair, we divide the label space S = Y ? H into two non-intersecting subspaces Y and H, and refer to the missing information h ? H as hidden or latent. Additionally, we are given a set of unlabeled u examples DU = {(xi )N i=1 }. We are interested in answering the following question: which part of the graph for which example should we labeled in order to learn the best model with the least amount of supervision? Towards this goal, we derive iterative algorithms which select the random variables to be labeled based on the local entropies. This is intuitive, as entropy is a surrogate for uncertainty and useful for the considered application since the cost of labeling a random variable is independent of the selection. Here, our algorithms iteratively query the labels of the random variables of highest uncertainty, update the model parameters w and again ask for the next most uncertain set of variables. Towards this goal, we need to compute the entropies of the marginal distributions over each latent variable, as well as the entropy over each random variable of the unlabeled examples. This is in general NP-hard, as we are interested in dealing with graphical models with general potentials and connectivity. In this paper we derive two active learning algorithms, each with a different trade-off between accuracy and computational complexity. Separate active: Our first algorithm utilizes the labeled and weakly labeled examples to learn at each iteration. Once the parameters are learned it performs inference over the unlabeled and partially labeled examples to query for the next random variable to label. Thus, it requires a separate inference step for each active learning iteration. As shown in our experiments, this can be done efficiently using convex belief propagation [10, 26]. The corresponding algorithm is summarized in Alg. 2. Joint active: Our second active learning algorithm takes advantage of unlabeled examples during learning and no extra effort is required to compute the most informative random variable. Note that this contrasts active learning algorithms which typically do not exploit unlabeled data during learning and require very expensive computations in order to select the next example or random variable to be labeled. Let D1 = DS ? DU be the set of all training examples containing both fully labeled, partially labeled and unlabeled examples. At each iteration we obtain Dt by querying the label of a random variable not being labeled in Dt?1 . Thus, at each iteration, we learn using a weakly supervised structured prediction task that solves ? X X C ? ln kwt kpp + exp p t (x,y)?D s ??S wt> ?(x, s?)+`(x,y) (? s)  4 ! ? ln X t ? h?H exp !? c ? ? wt> ?(x, y, h)+` (x,y) (y, h) ?,  Algorithm 2 Separate active Algorithm 3 Joint active Input: data DS , DU , initial weights w repeat (w, d) ? Alg. 1(DS ? DU , w) i? ? arg maxi H(di ) DS ? DS ? {(xi? , yi? )}, DU ? DU \ xi? until sufficiently certain Output: weights w Input: data DS , DU , initial weights w repeat (w, dS ) ? Alg. 1(DS , w) dU ? Inference(DU ) i? ? arg maxi H(di ) DS ? DS ? {(xi? , yi? )}, DU ? DU \ xi? until sufficiently certain Output: weights w with wt the weights for the t-th iteration. We resort to the approximated problem given in Eq. 5 to solve this optimization task. The entropies are readily computable in close form, as the local beliefs d are computed during learning. Thus, no extra inference step is necessary. The local entropies are P|Hi | then given by H(di ) = ? hi =1 di (hi ) log di (hi ), and we query the variable that has the highest entropy, i.e., the highest uncertainty. Note that this computation is linear in the number of unlabeled random variables and linear in the number of states. We summarize our approach in Alg. 3. Note that this algorithm is more expensive than the previous one as learning employs the fully, weakly and unlabeled examples. This is particularly the case when the pool of unlabeled examples is large. However, as shown in our experimental evaluation, it can dramatically reduce the amount of labeling required to learn a good model. Batch mode: The two previously defined active learning approaches are computationally expensive as for each sequential active learning step, a new model has to be learned and inference has to be performed over all latent variables. We also investigate batch algorithms which label k random variables at each step of the algorithm. Towards this goal, we simply label the top k most uncertain variables. Note that this is an approximation of what the sequential algorithm will do, as the estimates of the parameters and the entropies are not updated when selecting the i-th variable. Re-using computation: Warm starting the learning algorithm after each active learning query is important in order to reduce the number of iterations required for convergence. Since (almost) the same samples are involved at each step, we can extract a lot of information from previous iterations. To this end we re-use both the weights w as well as the messages ? and beliefs. More specifically, for Alg. 2 we first perform inference on only newly selected examples to update the corresponding messages ?. Only afterwards and together with Lagrange multipliers from the other training images and the current weights, we perform the next iteration and another active step. On the other hand, since we take advantage of all the unlabeled data during the joint active learning algorithm (Alg. 3), we already know the Lagrange multipliers ? for every image. Without any further updates we directly start a new active step. In our experimental evaluation we show that this choice results in dramatic speed ups when compared to randomly initializing the weights and messages during every active learning iteration. Note that the joint approach (Alg. 3) requires a larger number of iterations to converge as it employs large amounts of unlabeled data. After a few iterations, convergence for the following active learning steps improves significantly requiring about as much time as the separate approach (Alg. 2) does. 4 Experimental Evaluation We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on the task of predicting the 3D layout of rooms from a single image. Existing approaches formulate the task as a structured prediction problem focusing on estimating the 3D box which best describes the layout. Taking advantage of the Manhattan world assumption (i.e., the existence of three dominant vanishing points which are orthonormal), and given the vanishing points, the problem can be formulated as inference in a pairwise graphical model composed of four random variables [27]. As shown in Fig. 1, these variables represent the angles encoding the rays that originate from the respective vanishing points. Following existing approaches [12, 17], we employ F = 55 features based on geometric context (GC) [13] and orientation maps (OM) [18] as image cues. Our features ? count for each face in the cuboid (given a particular configuration of the layout) the number of pixels with a certain label for OM and the probability that such label exists for GC and the task-loss ` denotes the pixel-wise prediction error. 5 s1 s2 s1 s3 s2 s3 s4 s4 Figure 1: Parameterization and factor graph for the 3D layout prediction task. separate joint 0.24 best 0.2 0.18 0.16 0 separate joint 0.24 best 0.22 pixelwise test error pixelwise test error 0.22 random 40 60 number of queries (a) k = 1 80 0.2 0.18 0 separate joint 0.24 best 0.22 0.16 20 random 0.2 0.18 0.16 20 40 60 number of queries 80 0 (b) k = 4 random separate joint best 0.22 pixelwise test error random pixelwise test error 0.24 0.2 0.18 0.16 20 40 60 number of queries (c) k = 8 80 0 20 40 60 number of queries 80 (d) k = 12 Figure 2: Test set error as a function of the number of random variables labeled, when using joint vs separate active learning. The different plots reflect scenarios where the top k random variables are labeled at each iteration (i.e., batch setting). From left to right k = 1, 4, 8 and 12. Performance is measured as the percentage of pixels that have been correctly labeled as, left-wall, right-wall, front-wall, ceiling or floor. Unless otherwise stated all experiments are performed by averaging over 20 runs of the algorithm, where the initial seed of 10 fully labeled images is selected at random. Active learning: We begin our experimentation by comparing the two proposed active learning algorithms, i.e., separate (Alg. 2) and joint (Alg. 3). As shown in Fig. 2(a), both active learning algorithms achieve much lower test error than an algorithm that selects which variables to label at random. Also, note that the joint algorithm takes advantage of unlabeled data and achieves good performance after labeling only a few variables, improving significantly over the separate algorithm. Batch active learning: Fig. 2 shows the performances of both active learning algorithms when labeling a batch of k random variables before re-learning. Note that even with a batch of k = 12 random variables, our algorithms quickly outperform random selection, as illustrated in Fig. 2(d). Image vs random variable: Instead of labeling a random variable at a time, we also experiment with an algorithm that labels the four variables of an image at once. Note that this setting is equivalent to labeling four random variables per image. As shown in Fig. 3(a), labeling the full image requires more labeling to achieve the same test error performance when compared to labeling random variables from possibly different examples. Importance of : Fig. 3(b) and (c) show the performance of our active learning algorithms as a function of . Note that this parameter is fairly important. In particular, when  = 1, the entropy of most random variables is too large to be discriminative. This is illustrated in Fig. 3(d) where we observe a fairly uniform distribution over the states of a randomly chosen variable for  = 1. Our active learning algorithm thus prefers smaller values of . We hypothesize that this is due to the fact that we have a small number of random variables each having a large number of states. Our initial tests show that in other applications where the number of states is smaller (e.g., segmentation) larger values of  perform better. An automatic selection of  is subject of our future research. Complexity Separate vs. Joint: In Fig. 4(a) we illustrate the number of CCCP iterations as a function of the number of queried examples for both active learning algorithms. We observe that the joint algorithm requires more computation initially. But after the first few active steps, i.e., after having converged to a good solution, its computation requirements reduce drastically. Here we use  = 0.01 for both algorithms. 6 0.2 0.18 0.24 ?=1 ?=0.1 0.16 ?=1 20 40 60 number of queries 80 (a) Image vs variable ?=0.1 ?=0.01 ?=1 0.22 0.2 0.18 0.16 0 0.2 ?=0.01 0.22 pixelwise test error pixelwise test error 0.24 random: 1 var separate: 1 var joint: 1 var 0.2 0.18 20 40 60 number of queries 80 0 (b)  separate ?=0.01 0.1 0.05 0.16 0 ?=0.1 0.15 probability random: 1 img separate: 1 img joint: 1 img 0.22 pixelwise test error 0.24 20 40 60 number of queries 80 (c)  joint 0 0 20 40 state 60 (d) Marginal distribution Figure 3: Test set error as a function of the number of random variables labeled ((a)-(c)). Marginal distribution is illustrated in (d) for different . 4 100 8 joint ?=0.01 separate ?=0.01 80 reuse not reuse 5000 4000 time[s] 5 40 4 3 3000 2000 2 20 1000 1 0 0 6000 reuse not reuse 6 60 time[s] # CCCP iteration x 10 7 20 40 60 number of queries (a) 80 0 0 20 40 # active finished (b) 60 80 0 0 20 40 # active finished 60 80 (c) Figure 4: Number of CCCP iterations as a function of the amount of queried variables in (a) and time after specified number of active iterations in (b) (joint) and (c) (separate). Reusing computation: Fig. 4(b) and (c) show the number of finished active learning iterations as a function of time for the joint and separate algorithm respectively. Note that by reusing computation, a much larger number of active learning iterations finishes when given a specific time budget. 5 Related Work Active learning approaches consider two different scenarios. In stream-based methods [5], samples are considered successively and a decision is made to discard or eventually pick the currently investigated sample. In contrast, pool-based methods [20] have access to a large set of unlabeled data. Clearly our proposed approach has a pool-based flavor. Over the years many different strategies have been proposed in the context of active learning algorithms to decide which example to label next. While we follow the uncertainty sampling scheme [20, 19] using an entropy measure, sampling schemes based on expected model change [29] have also been proposed. Other alternatives are expected error reduction [24], variance reduction [4, 6], least-confident measure [7] or margin-based measures [25]. An alternative way to classify active learning algorithms is related to the information revealed after querying for a label. In the multi-armed bandit model [1, 2] the algorithm chooses an action/sample and observes the utility of only that action. Alternatively when learning with expert advice, utilities for all possible actions are revealed [3]. Between both of the aforementioned extremes sits the coactive learning setting [30] where a subset of rewards for all possible actions is revealed by the user. Our approach resembles the multi-armed bandit setting since we only get to know the result of the newly queried sample. Active learning approaches have been proposed in the context of Neural Networks [6], Support Vector Machines [32], Gaussian processes [14], CRFs [7] and structured max-margin formulations [22]. Contrasting many of the previously proposed approaches we consider active learning as an extension of a latent structured prediction setting, i.e., we extend the double-loop algorithm by yet another layer. Importantly, our active learning algorithm follows the recent ideas to unify CRFs and structured SVMs. It employs convex approximations and is amenable to general graphical models with arbitrary topology and energy functions. 7 The first application of active learning in computer vision was developed by Kapoor et al. [14] to perform object recognition with minimal supervision. In the context of structured models [8] proposed to use conditional entropies to decide which image to label next in a segmentation task. In [36] the set of frames to label in a video sequence is selected based on the cost of labeling each frame and the cost of correcting errors. Unlike our approach, [8, 36] labeled full images (not sets of random variables). As shown in our experiments this requires more manual interactions than our approach. GrabCut [23] popularized the use of ?active learning? for figure ground segmentation, where the question of what to labeled next is answered by a human via an interactive segmentation system. Siddiquie et al. [31] propose to label that variable which most reduces the entropy of the entire ?system,? i.e., all the data, by taking into account correlations between variables using a Bethe entropy approximation. In [15], the next region to be labeled is selected based on a surrogate of uncertainty (i.e., min marginals) which is computed efficiently via dynamic graph cuts. This, however, is only suitable for problems that can be solved via graph cuts (e.g., binary labeling problems with sub modular energies). In contrast, in this paper we are interested in the general setting of arbitrary energies and connectivities. Entropy was used as an active learning criteria for tree-structured models [21], where marginal probabilities can be computed exactly. In the context of video segmentation, Fathi et al. [9] frame active learning as a semi-supervised learning problem over a graph. They utilized the entropy as a metric for selecting which superpixel to label within their graph regularization approach. In the context of holistic approaches, Vijayanarasimhan et al. [35] investigated the problem of which task to label. Towards this goal they derived a multi-label multiple-instance approach, which takes into account the task effort (i.e., the expected time to perform each labeling). Vezhnevets et al. [34] resort to the expected change as the criteria to select which parts to label in the graphical model. Unfortunately, computing this measure is computationally expensive, and their approach is only feasible for graphical models where inference can be solved via graph cuts. 6 Conclusions We have proposed active learning algorithms in the context of structure models which utilized local entropies in order to decide which subset of the output space for which example to label. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach in the problem of 3D room layout prediction given a single image, and we showed that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained while only employing ?10% of the labelings. We will release the source code upon acceptance as well as scripts to reproduce all experiments in the paper. In the future, we plan to apply our algorithms in the context of holistic models in order to investigate which tasks are more informative for visual parsing. References [1] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and P. Fischer. Finite-time analysis of the multi-armed bandit problem. Machine Learning, 2002. [2] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Y. Freund, and R. Schapire. The non-stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. SIAM J. on Computing, 2002. [3] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, Learning and Games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [4] D. Cohn, L. Atlas, and R. Ladner. Improving generalization with active learning. Machine Learning, 1994. [5] D. Cohn, L. Atlas, R. Ladner, M. El-Sharkawi, R. Marks II, M. Aggoune, and D. Park. Training connectionist networks with queries and selective sampling. In Proc. NIPS, 1990. [6] D. Cohn, Z. Ghahramani, and M. I. Jordan. Active learning with statistical models. J. of Artificial Intelligence Research, 1996. [7] A. Culotta and A. McCallum. Reducing labeling effort for structured prediction tasks. In Proc. AAAI, 2005. [8] A. Farhangfar, R. Greiner, and C. Szepesvari. Learning to Segment from a Few Well-Selected Training Images. In Proc. ICML, 2009. [9] A. Fathi, M. F. Balcan, X. Ren, and J. M. Rehg. Combining Self Training and Active Learning for Video Segmentation. In Proc. BMVC, 2011. 8 [10] T. Hazan and A. Shashua. Norm-Product Belief Propagation: Primal-Dual Message-Passing for LPRelaxation and Approximate-Inference. Trans. Information Theory, 2010. [11] T. Hazan and R. Urtasun. A Primal-Dual Message-Passing Algorithm for Approximated Large Scale Structured Prediction. In Proc. NIPS, 2010. [12] V. Hedau, D. Hoiem, and D. A. Forsyth. Recovering the Spatial Layout of Cluttered Rooms . In Proc. ICCV, 2009. [13] D. Hoiem, A. A. Efros, and M. Hebert. Recovering Surface Layout from an Image. IJCV, 2007. [14] A. Kapoor, K. Grauman, R. Urtasun, and T. Darrell. Active Learning with Gaussian Processes for Object Categorization . In Proc. ICCV, 2007. [15] P. Kohli and P. Torr. Measuring Uncertainty in Graph Cut Solutions -Efficiently Computing Min-marginal Energies using Dynamic Graph Cuts. In Proc. ECCV, 2006. [16] J. Lafferty, A. McCallum, and F. Pereira. Conditional random fields: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data. In Proc. ICML, 2001. [17] D. C. Lee, A. Gupta, M. Hebert, and T. Kanade. Estimating Spatial Layout of Rooms using Volumetric Reasoning about Objects and Surfaces. In Proc. NIPS, 2010. [18] D. C. Lee, M. Hebert, and T. Kanade. Geometric Reasoning for Single Image Structure Recovery. In Proc. CVPR, 2009. [19] D. Lewis and J. Catlett. Heterogeneous uncertainty sampling for supervised learning. In Proc. ICML, 1994. [20] D. Lewis and W. Gale. A sequential algorithm for training text classifiers. In Proc. Research and Development in Info. Retrieval, 1994. [21] T. Mensink, J. Verbeek, and G. Csurka. Learning Structured Prediction Models for Interactive Image Labeling. In Proc. CVPR, 2011. [22] D. Roth and K. Small. Margin-based Active Learning for Structured Output Spaces. In Proc. ECML, 2006. [23] C. Rother, V. Kolmogorov, and A. Blake. GrabCut Interactive Foreground Extraction using Iterated Graph Cuts. In Proc. SIGGRAPH, 2004. [24] N. Roy and A. McCallum. Toward optimal active learning through sampling estimation of error reduction. In Proc. ICML, 2001. [25] T. Scheffer, C. Decomain, and S. Wrobel. Active hidden Markov models for information extraction. In Proc. Int?l Conf. Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis, 2001. [26] A. G. Schwing, T. Hazan, M. Pollefeys, and R. Urtasun. Distributed Message Passing for Large Scale Graphical Models. In Proc. CVPR, 2011. [27] A. G. Schwing, T. Hazan, M. Pollefeys, and R. Urtasun. Efficient Structured Prediction for 3D Indoor Scene Understanding. In Proc. CVPR, 2012. [28] A. G. Schwing, T. Hazan, M. Pollefeys, and R. Urtasun. Efficient Structured Prediction with Latent Variables for General Graphical Models. In Proc. ICML, 2012. [29] B. Settles, M. Craven, and S. Ray. Multiple-instance active learning. In Proc. NIPS, 2008. [30] P. Shivaswamy and T. Joachims. Online Structured Prediction via Coactive Learning. In Proc. ICML, 2012. [31] B. Siddiquie and A. Gupta. Beyond Active Noun Tagging: Modeling Contextual Interactions for MultiClass Active Learning. In Proc. CVPR, 2010. [32] S. Tong and D. Koller. Support vector machine active learning with applications to text classification. JMLR, 2001. [33] I. Tsochantaridis, T. Joachims, T. Hofmann, and Y. Altun. Large Margin Methods for Structured and Interdependent Output Variables. JMLR, 2005. [34] A. Vezhnevets, V. Ferrari, and J. M. Buhmann. Active Learning for Semantic Segmentation with Expected Change. In Proc. CVPR, 2012. [35] S. Vijayanarasimhan and K. Grauman. Cost-Sensitive Active Visual Category Learning. IJCV, 2010. [36] S. Vijayanarasimhan and K. Grauman. Active Frame Selection for Label Propagation in Videos. In Proc. ECCV, 2012. [37] A. L. Yuille and A. Rangarajan. The Concave-Convex Procedure. Neural Computation, 2003. 9
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Low-Rank Matrix and Tensor Completion via Adaptive Sampling Akshay Krishnamurthy Computer Science Department Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Aarti Singh Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Abstract We study low rank matrix and tensor completion and propose novel algorithms that employ adaptive sampling schemes to obtain strong performance guarantees. Our algorithms exploit adaptivity to identify entries that are highly informative for learning the column space of the matrix (tensor) and consequently, our results hold even when the row space is highly coherent, in contrast with previous analyses. In the absence of noise, we show that one can exactly recover a n ? n matrix of rank r from merely ?(nr3/2 log(r)) matrix entries. We also show that one can recover an order T tensor using ?(nrT 1/2 T 2 log(r)) entries. For noisy recovery, our algorithm consistently estimates a low rank matrix corrupted with noise using ?(nr3/2 polylog(n)) entries. We complement our study with simulations that verify our theory and demonstrate the scalability of our algorithms. 1 Introduction Recently, the machine learning and signal processing communities have focused considerable attention toward understanding the benefits of adaptive sensing. This theme is particularly relevant to modern data analysis, where adaptive sensing has emerged as an efficient alternative to obtaining and processing the large data sets associated with scientific investigation. These empirical observations have lead to a number of theoretical studies characterizing the performance gains offered by adaptive sensing over conventional, passive approaches. In this work, we continue in that direction and study the role of adaptive data acquisition in low rank matrix and tensor completion problems. Our study is motivated not only by prior theoretical results in favor of adaptive sensing but also by several applications where adaptive sensing is feasible. In recommender systems, obtaining a measurement amounts to asking a user about an item, an interaction that has been deployed in production systems. Another application pertains to network tomography, where a network operator is interested in inferring latencies between hosts in a communication network while injecting few packets into the network. The operator, being in control of the network, can adaptively sample the matrix of pair-wise latencies, potentially reducing the total number of measurements. In particular, the operator can obtain full columns of the matrix by measuring from one host to all others, a sampling strategy we will exploit in this paper. Yet another example centers around gene expression analysis, where the object of interest is a matrix of expression levels for various genes across a number of conditions. There are typically two types of measurements: low-throughput assays provide highly reliable measurements of single entries in this matrix while high-throughput microarrays provide expression levels of all genes of interest across operating conditions, thus revealing entire columns. The completion problem can be seen as a strategy for learning the expression matrix from both low- and high-throughput data while minimizing the total measurement cost. 1 1.1 Contributions We develop algorithms with theoretical guarantees for three low-rank completion problems. The algorithms find a small subset of columns of the matrix (tensor) that can be used to reconstruct or approximate the matrix (tensor). We exploit adaptivity to focus on highly informative columns, and this enables us to do away with the usual incoherence assumptions on the row-space while achieving competitive (or in some cases better) sample complexity bounds. Specifically our results are: 1. In the absence of noise, we develop a streaming algorithm that enjoys both low sample requirements and computational overhead. In the matrix case, we show that ?(nr3/2 log r) adaptively chosen samples are sufficient for exact recovery, improving on the best known bound of ?(nr2 log2 n) in the passive setting [21]. This also gives the first guarantee for matrix completion with coherent row space. 2. In the tensor case, we establish that ?(nrT 1/2 T 2 log r) adaptively chosen samples are sufficient for recovering a n ? . . . ? n order T tensor of rank r. We complement this with a necessary condition for tensor completion under random sampling, showing that our adaptive strategy is competitive with any passive algorithm. These are the first sample complexity upper and lower bounds for exact tensor completion. 3. In the noisy matrix completion setting, we modify the adaptive column subset selection algorithm of Deshpande et al. [10] to give an algorithm that finds a rank-r approximation to a matrix using ?(nr3/2 polylog(n)) samples. As before, the algorithm does not require an incoherent row space but we are no longer able to process the matrix sequentially. 4. Along the way, we improve on existing results for subspace detection from missing data, the problem of testing if a partially observed vector lies in a known subspace. 2 Related Work The matrix completion problem has received considerable attention in recent years. A series of papers [6, 7, 13, 21], culminating in Recht?s elegent analysis of the nuclear norm minimization program, address the exact matrix completion problem through the framework of convex optimization, establishing that ?((n1 + n2 )r max{?0 , ?21 } log2 (n2 )) randomly drawn samples are sufficient to exactly identify an n1 ? n2 matrix with rank r. Here ?0 and ?1 are parameters characterizing the incoherence of the row and column spaces of the matrix, which we will define shortly. Candes and Tao [7] proved that under random sampling ?(n1 r?0 log(n2 )) samples are necessary, showing that nuclear norm minimization is near-optimal. The noisy matrix completion problem has also received considerable attention [5, 17, 20]. The majority of these results also involve some parameter that quantifies how much information a single observation reveals, in the same vein as incoherence. Tensor completion, a natural generalization of matrix completion, is less studied. One challenge stems from the NP-hardness of computing most tensor decompositions, pushing researchers to study alternative structure-inducing norms in lieu of the nuclear norm [11, 22]. Both papers derive algorithms for tensor completion, but neither provide sample complexity bounds for the noiseless case. Our approach involves adaptive data acquisition, and consequently our work is closely related to a number of papers focusing on using adaptive measurements to estimate a sparse vector [9, 15]. In these problems, specifically, problems where the sparsity basis is known a priori, we have a reasonable understanding of how adaptive sampling can lead to performance improvements. As a low rank matrix is sparse in its unknown eigenbasis, the completion problem is coupled with learning this basis, which poses a new challenge for adaptive sampling procedures. Another relevant line of work stems from the matrix approximations literature. Broadly speaking, this research is concerned with efficiently computing a structured matrix, i.e. sparse or low rank, that serves as a good approximation to a fully observed input matrix. Two methods that apply to the missing data setting are the Nystrom method [12, 18] and entrywise subsampling [1]. While the sample complexity bounds match ours, the analysis for the Nystrom method has focused on positive-semidefinite kernel matrices and requires incoherence of both the row and column spaces. On the other hand, entrywise subsampling is applicable, but the guarantees are weaker than ours. 2 It is also worth briefly mentioning the vast body of literature on column subset selection, the task of approximating a matrix by projecting it onto a few of its columns. While the best algorithms, namely volume sampling [14] and sampling according to statistical leverages [3], do not seem to be readily applicable to the missing data setting, some algorithms are. Indeed our procedure for noisy matrix completion is an adaptation of an existing column subset selection procedure [10]. Our techniques are also closely related to ideas employed for subspace detection ? testing whether a vector lies in a known subspace ? and subspace tracking ? learning a time-evolving low-dimensional subspace from vectors lying close to that subspace. Balzano et al. [2] prove guarantees for subspace detection with known subspace and a partially observed vector, and we will improve on their result en route to establishing our guarantees. Subspace tracking from partial information has also been studied [16], but little is known theoretically about this problem. 3 Definitions and Preliminaries Before presenting our algorithms, we clarify some notation and definitions. Let M 2 Rn1 ?n2 be a rank r matrix with singular value decomposition U ?V T . Let c1 , . . . cn2 denote the columns of M . Let M 2 Rn1 ?...?nT denote an order T tensor with canonical decomposition: r X (1) (2) (T ) M= ak ? ak ? . . . ? ak (1) k=1 where ? is the outer product. Define rank(M) to be the smallest value of r that establishes this (t) equality. Note that the vectors {ak }rk=1 need not be orthogonal, nor even linearly independent. (t) The mode-t subtensors of M, denoted Mi , are order T 1 tensors obtained by fixing the ith (3) coordinate of the t-th mode. For example, if M is an order 3 tensor, then Mi are the frontal slices. We represent a d-dimensional subspace U ? Rn as a set of orthonormal basis vectors U = {ui }di=1 and in some cases as n ? d matrix whose columns are the basis vectors. The interpretation will be clear from context. Define the orthogonal projection onto U as PU v = U (U T U ) 1 U T v. For a set ? ? [n]1 , c? 2 R|?| is the vector whose elements are ci , i 2 ? indexed lexicographically. Similarly the matrix U? 2 R|?|?d has rows indexed by ? lexicographically. Note that if U is a orthobasis for a subspace, U? is a |?| ? d matrix with columns ui? where ui 2 U , rather than a set of orthonormal basis vectors. In particular, the matrix U? need not have orthonormal columns. These definitions extend to the tensor setting with slight modifications. We use the vec operation T to unfold a tensor into a single vector and Q define the inner product hx, yi = vec(x) vec(y). For a subspace U ? R?ni , we write it as a ( ni ) ? d matrix whose columns are vec(ui ), ui 2 U . We can then define projections and subsampling as we did in the vector case. As in recent work on matrix completion [7, 21], we will require a certain amount of incoherence between the column space associated with M (M) and the standard basis. Definition 1. The coherence of an r-dimensional subspace U ? Rn is: n ?(U ) , max ||PU ej ||2 (2) r 1?j?n where ej denotes the jth standard basis element. In previous analyses of matrix completion, the incoherence assumption is that both the row and column spaces of the matrix have coherences upper bounded by ?0 . When both spaces are incoherent, each entry of the matrix reveals roughly the same amount of information, so there is little to be gained from adaptive sampling, which typically involves looking for highly informative measurements. Thus the power of adaptivity for these problems should center around relaxing the incoherence assumption, which is the direction we take in this paper. Unfortunately, even under adaptive sampling, it is impossible to identify a rank one matrix that is zero in all but one entry without observing the entire matrix, implying that we cannot completely eliminate the assumption. Instead, we will retain incoherence on the column space, but remove the restrictions on the row space. 1 We write [n] for {1, . . . , n} 3 Algorithm 1: Sequential Tensor Completion (M, {mt }Tt=1 ) 1. Let U = ;. QT 1 QT 1 2. Randomly draw entries ? ? t=1 [nt ] uniformly with replacement w. p. mT / t=1 nt . (T ) 3. For each mode-T subtensor Mi (a) (T ) If ||Mi? ? (T ) i. M i ii. Ui (t) PU? Mi? ||22 > 0: of M, i 2 [nT ]: (T ) recurse on (Mi , {mt }Tt=11 ) ? (T ) PU ? M i ? (T ) || ||PU ? M i ? (T ) (b) Otherwise M i .U U [ Ui . U(U?T U? ) 1 ? with mode-T subtensors M ?i 4. Return M 4 (T ) U? Mi? (T ) . Exact Completion Problems In the matrix case, our sequential algorithm builds up the column space of the matrix by selecting a ? and few columns to observe in their entirety. In particular, we maintain a candidate column space U ? ? test whether a column ci lives in U or not, choosing to completely observe ci and add it to U if it does not. Balzano et al. [2] observed that we can perform this test with a subsampled version of ci , meaning that we can recover the column space using few samples. Once we know the column space, recovering the matrix, even from few observations, amounts to solving determined linear systems. For tensors, the algorithm becomes recursive in nature. At the outer level of the recursion, the (T ) algorithm maintains a candidate subspace U for the mode T subtensors Mi . For each of these (T ) subtensors, we test whether Mi lives in U and recursively complete that subtensor if it does not. Once we complete the subtensor, we add it to U and proceed at the outer level. When the subtensor itself is just a column; we observe the columns in its entirety. The pseudocode of the algorithm is given in Algorithm 1. Our first main result characterizes the performance of the tensor completion algorithm. We defer the proof to the appendix. Pr (t) T Theorem 2. Let M = be a rank r order-T tensor with subspaces A(t) = i=1 ?t=1 aj (t) span({aj }rj=1 ). Suppose that all of A(1) , . . . A(T 1) have coherence bounded above by ?0 . Set mt = 36rt 1/2 ?t0 1 log(2r/ ) for each t. Then with probability 1 5 T rT , Algorithm 1 exactly recovers M and has expected sample complexity 36( T X nt )rT 1/2 T ?0 1 log(2r/ ) (3) t=1 In the special case of a n ? . . . ? n tensor of order T , the algorithm succeeds with high probability using ?(nrT 1/2 ?T0 1 T 2 log(T r/ )) samples, exhibiting a linear dependence tensor dimen??Q on the ? ? T1 sions. In comparison, the only guarantee we are aware of shows that ? t=2 nt r samples are sufficient for consistent estimation of a noisy tensor, exhibiting a much worse dependence on tensor QT dimension [23]. In the noiseless scenario, one can unfold the tensor into a n1 ? t=2 nt matrix and apply any matrix completion algorithm. Unfortunately, without exploiting the additional tensor QT structure, this approach will scale with t=2 nt , which is similarly much worse than our guarantee. Note that the na??ve procedure that does not perform the recursive step has sample complexity scaling with the product of the dimensions and is therefore much worse than the our algorithm. The most obvious specialization of Theorem 2 is to the matrix completion problem: Corollary 3. Let M := U ?V T 2 Rn1 ?n2 have rank r, and fix > 0. Assume ?(U ) ? ?0 . Setting m , m2 36r3/2 ?0 log( 2r ), the sequential algorithm exactly recovers M with probability at least 1 4r + while using in expectation 36n2 r3/2 ?0 log(2r/ ) + rn1 4 (4) observations. The algorithm runs in O(n1 n2 r + r3 m) time. A few comments are in order. Recht [21] guaranteed exact recovery for the nuclear norm minimiza2 2 tion procedure as long as the number of observations exceeds 32(n 1 +n2 )r max{?0 , ?1 } log (2n2 ) p where controls the probability of failure and ||U V T ||1 ? ?1 r/(n1 n2 ) with p ?1 as another coherence parameter. Without additional assumptions, ?1 can be as large as ?0 r. In this case, our bound improves on his in its the dependence on r, ?0 and logarithmic terms. The Nystrom method can also be applied to the matrix completion problem, albeit under nonuniform sampling. Given a PSD matrix, one uses a randomly sampled set of columns and the corresponding rows to approximate the remaining entries. Gittens showed that if one samples O(r log r) columns, then one can exactly reconstruct a rank r matrix [12]. This result requires incoherence of both row and column spaces, so it is more restrictive than ours. Almost all previous results for exact matrix completion require incoherence of both row and column spaces. The one exception is a recent paper by Chen et al. that we became aware of while preparing the final version of this work [8]. They show that sampling the matrix according to statistical leverages of the rows and columns can eliminate the need for incoherence assumptions. Specifically, when the matrix has incoherent column space, they show that by first estimating the leverages of the columns, sampling the matrix according to this distribution, and then solving the nuclear norm minimization program, one can recover the matrix with ?(nr?0 log2 n) samples. Our result improves on theirs p when r is small compared to n, specifically when r log r ? log2 n, which is common. Our algorithm is also very computationally efficient. Existing algorithms involve successive singular value decompositions (O(n1 n2 r) per iteration), resulting in much worse running times. The key ingredient in our proofs is a result pertaining to subspace detection, the task of testing if a subsampled vector lies in a subspace. This result, which improves over the results of Balzano et al. [2], is crucial in obtaining our sample complexity bounds, and may be of independent interest. Theorem 4. Let U be a d-dimensional subspace of Rn and y = x + v where x 2 U and v 2 U ? . 8 2d Fix > 0, m and let ? be an index set with entries sampled uniformly with 3 d?(U ) log replacement with probability m/n. Then with probability at least 1 4 : m(1 ?) d?(U ) (1 n ) ||v||22 ? ||y? q ?(v) Where ? = 2 ?(v) m log(1/ ) + 2 3m log(1/ ), q 8d?(U ) 2 2 3m log(2d/ ) and ?(v) = n||v||1 /||v||2 . PU? y? ||22 ? (1 + ?) = 6 log(d/ ) + m ||v||22 n 4 d?(v) 3 m log2 (d/ ), (5) = p This theorem shows that if m = ?(max{?(v), d?(U ), d ?(U )?(v)} log d) then the orthogonal projection from missing data is within a constant factor of the fully observed one. In contrast, Balzano et al. [2] give a similar result that requires m = ?(max{?(v)2 , d?(U ), d?(U )?(v)} log d) to get a constant factor approximation. In the matrix case, this improved dependence on incoherence 3/2 parameters brings our sample complexity down from nr2 ?20 log p r to nr ?0 log r. We conjecture that this theorem can be further improved to eliminate another r factor from our final bound. 4.1 Lower Bounds for Uniform Sampling We adapt the proof strategy of Candes and Tao [7] to the tensor completion problem and establish the following lower bound for uniform sampling: Theorem 5 (Passive Lower Bound). Fix 1 ? m, r ? mint nt and ?0 > 1. Fix 0 < < 1/2 and suppose that we do not have the condition: ! ?n ? m ?T0 1 rT 1 1 log 1 QT log (6) QT 2 i=1 ni i=2 ni Then there exist infinitely many pairs of distinct n1 ? . . . ? nT order-T tensors M 6= M0 of rank r with coherence parameter ? ?0 such that P? (M) = P? (M0 ) with probability at least . Each entry is observed independently with probability T = QTm n . i=1 5 i Theorem 5 implies that as long as the right hand side of Equation 6 is at most ? < 1, and: ?n ? 1 m ? n1 rT 1 ?T0 1 log (1 ?/2) (7) 2 then with probability at least there are infinitely many matrices that agree on the observed entries. This gives a necessary condition on the number of samples required for tensor completion. Note that when T = 2 we recover the known lower bound for matrix completion. Theorem 5 gives a necessary condition under uniform sampling. Comparing with Theorem 2 shows that our procedure outperforms any passive procedure in its dependence on the tensorpdimensions. However, our guarantee is suboptimal in its dependence on r. The extra factor of r would be eliminated by a further improvement to Theorem 5, which we conjecture is indeed possible. For adaptive sampling, one can obtain a lower bound via a parameter counting argument. Observing P Q (t) the (i1 , .P . . , iT )th entry leads to a polynomial equation of the form P k t ak (it ) = Mi1 ,...,iT . If m < r( t nt ), this system is underdetermined showing that ?(( t nt )r) observations are necessary for exact recovery, even under adaptive sampling. Thus, our algorithm enjoys sample complexity with optimal dependence on matrix dimensions. 5 Noisy Matrix Completion Our algorithm for noisy matrix completion is an adaptation of the column subset selection (CSS) algorithm analyzed by Deshpande et al. [10]. The algorithm builds a candidate column space in rounds; at each round it samples additional columns with probability proportional to their projection on the orthogonal complement of the candidate column space. To concretely describe the algorithm, suppose that at the beginning of the lth round we have a candidate subspace Ul . Then in the lth round, we draw s additional columns according to the distribution where the probability of drawing the ith column is proportional to ||PUl? ci ||22 . Observing these s columns in full and then adding them to the subspace Ul gives the candidate subspace Ul+1 for the next round. We initialize the algorithm with U1 = ;. After L rounds, we approximate each T T ?. column c with c? = UL (UL? UL? ) 1 UL? c? and concatenate these estimates to form M The challenge is that the algorithm cannot compute the sampling probabilities without observing entries of the matrix. However, our results show that with reliable estimates, which can be computed from few observations, the algorithm still performs well. We assume that the matrix M 2 Rn1 ?n2 can be decomposed as a rank r matrix A and a random gaussian matrix R whose entries are independently drawn from N (0, 2 ). We write A = U ?V T and assume that ?(U ) ? ?0 . As before, the incoherence assumption is crucial in guaranteeing that one can estimate the column norms, and consequently sampling probabilities, from missing data. Theorem 6. Let ? be the set of all observations over the course of the algorithm, let UL ? be the matrix whose columns be the subspace obtained after L = log(n1 n2 ) rounds and M T T c?i = UL (UL? UL? ) 1 UL? c?i . Then there are constants c1 , c2 such that: ? ||2F ? c1 ||A||2F + c2 ||R? ||2F ||A M (n1 n2 ) ? can be computed from ?((n1 + n2 )r3/2 ?(U )polylog(n1 n2 )) observations. In particular, if M ||A||2F = 1 and Rij ? N (0, 2 /(n1 n2 )), then there is a constant c? for which: ? ? ?? ? 2 ? c? ||A A|| 1 + 2 (n1 + n2 )r3/2 ?(U )polylog(n1 n2 ) F n1 n2 The main improvement in the result is in relaxing the assumptions on the underlying matrix A. Existing results for noisy matrix completion require that the energy of the matrix is well spread out across both the rows and the columns (i.e. incoherence), and the sample complexity guarantees deteriorate significantly without such an assumption [5, 17]. As a concrete example, Negahban and p p 1 Wainwright [20] use a notion of spikiness, measured as n1 n2 ||A|| n2 ||A||F which can be as large as in our setup, e.g. when the matrix is zero except for on one column and constant across that column. 6 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) Figure 1: Probability of success curves for our noiseless matrix completion algorithm (top) and SVT (middle). Top: Success probability as a function of: Left: p, the fraction of samples per column, Center: np, total samples per column, and Right: np log2 n, expected samples per column for passive completion. Bottom: Success probability of our noiseless algorithm for different values of r as a function of p, the fraction of samples per column (left), p/r3/2 (middle) and p/r (right). The choices of ||A||2F = 1 and noise variance rescaled by n11n2 enable us to compare our results with related work [20]. Thinking of n1 = n2 = n and the ? incoherence ? parameter as a constant, our n 2 results imply consistent estimation as long as = ! r2 polylog(n) . On the other hand, thinking 2 of the spikiness parameter as a constant, [20] show that the error is bounded by nrmlog n where m is the total number of observations. Using the same number of samples as our procedure, their results implies consistency as long as 2 = !(rpolylog(n)). For small r (i.e. r = O(1)), our noise tolerance is much better, but their results apply even with fewer observations, while ours do not. 6 Simulations We verify Corollary 3?s linear dependence on n in Figure 1, where we empirically compute the success probability of the algorithm for varying values of n and p = m/n, the fraction of entries observed per column. Here we study square matrices of fixed rank r = 5 with ?(U ) = 1. Figure 1(a) shows that our algorithm can succeed with sampling a smaller and smaller fraction of entries as n increases, as we expect from Corollary 3. In Figure 1(b), we instead plot success probability against total number of observations per column. The fact that the curves coincide suggests that the samples per column, m, is constant with respect to n, which is precisely what Corollary 3 implies. Finally, in Figure 1(c), we rescale instead by n/ log2 n, which corresponds to the passive sample complexity bound [21]. Empirically, the fact that these curves do not line up demonstrates that our algorithm requires fewer than log2 n samples per column, outperforming the passive bound. The second row of Figure 1 plots the same probability of success curves for the Singular Value Thresholding (SVT) algorithm [4]. As is apparent from the plots, SVT does not enjoy a linear dependence on n; indeed Figure 1(f) confirms the logarithmic dependency that we expect for passive matrix completion, and establishes that our algorithm has empirically better performance. 7 n 1000 5000 10000 Figure 2: Reconstruction error as a function of row space incoherence for our noisy algorithm (CSS) and the semidefinite program of [20]. Unknown M r m/dr 10 3.4 50 3.3 100 3.2 10 3.4 50 3.5 100 3.4 10 3.4 50 3.5 100 3.5 m/n2 0.07 0.33 0.61 0.01 0.07 0.14 0.01 0.03 0.07 Results time (s) 16 29 45 3 27 104 10 84 283 Table 1: Computational results on large lowrank matrices. dr = r(2n r) is the degrees of freedom, so m/dr is the oversampling ratio. In the third row, we study the algorithm?s dependence on r on 500 ? 500 square matrices. In Figure 1(g) we plot the probability of success of the algorithm as a function of the sampling probability p for matrices of various rank, and observe that the sample complexity increases with r. In Figure 1(h) we rescale the x-axis by r 3/2 so that if our theorem is tight, the curves should coincide. In Figure 1(i) we instead rescale the x-axis by r 1 corresponding to our conjecture about the performance of the algorithm. Indeed, the curves line up in Figure 1(i), demonstrating that empirically, the number of samples needed per column is linear in r rather than the r3/2 dependence in our theorem. To confirm the computational improvement over existing methods, we ran our matrix completion algorithm on large-scale matrices, recording the running time and error in Table 1. To contrast with SVT, we refer the reader to Table 5.1 in [4]. As an example, recovering a 10000 ? 10000 matrix of rank 100 takes close to 2 hours with the SVT, while it takes less than 5 minutes with our algorithm. For the noisy algorithm, we study the dependence on row-space incoherence. In Figure 2, we plot the reconstruction error as a function of the row space coherence for our procedure and the semidefinite program of Negahban and Wainwright [20], where we ensure that both algorithms use the same number of observations. It?s readily apparent that the SDP decays in performance as the row space becomes more coherent while the performance of our procedure is unaffected. 7 Conclusions and Open Problems In this work, we demonstrate how sequential active algorithms can offer significant improvements in time, and measurement overhead over passive algorithms for matrix and tensor completion. We hope our work motivates further study of sequential active algorithms for machine learning. Several interesting theoretical questions arise from our work: 1. Can we tighten the dependence on rank for these problems? In particular, can we bring the dependence on r down from r3/2 to linear? Simulations suggest this is possible. 2. Can one generalize the nuclear norm minimization program for matrix completion to the tensor completion setting while providing theoretical guarantees on sample complexity? We hope to pursue these directions in future work. Acknowledgements This research is supported in part by AFOSR under grant FA9550-10-1-0382 and NSF under grant IIS-1116458. AK is supported in part by a NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. AK would like to thank Martin Azizyan, Sivaraman Balakrishnan and Jayant Krishnamurthy for fruitful discussions. References [1] Dimitris Achlioptas and Frank Mcsherry. Fast computation of low-rank matrix approximations. Journal of the ACM (JACM), 54(2):9, 2007. 8 [2] Laura Balzano, Benjamin Recht, and Robert Nowak. High-dimensional matched subspace detection when data are missing. In Information Theory Proceedings (ISIT), 2010 IEEE International Symposium on, pages 1638?1642. IEEE, 2010. [3] Christos Boutsidis, Michael W Mahoney, and Petros Drineas. An improved approximation algorithm for the column subset selection problem. In Proceedings of the twentieth Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms, pages 968?977. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2009. [4] Jian-Feng Cai, Emmanuel J Cand`es, and Zuowei Shen. A singular value thresholding algorithm for matrix completion. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 20(4):1956?1982, 2010. [5] Emmanuel J Candes and Yaniv Plan. Matrix completion with noise. Proceedings of the IEEE, 98(6):925?936, 2010. [6] Emmanuel J Cand`es and Benjamin Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Foundations of Computational mathematics, 9(6):717?772, 2009. [7] Emmanuel J Cand`es and Terence Tao. The power of convex relaxation: Near-optimal matrix completion. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 56(5):2053?2080, 2010. [8] Yudong Chen, Srinadh Bhojanapalli, Sujay Sanghavi, and Rachel Ward. Coherent matrix completion. arXiv preprint arXiv:1306.2979, 2013. [9] Mark A Davenport and Ery Arias-Castro. Compressive binary search. In Information Theory Proceedings (ISIT), 2012 IEEE International Symposium on, pages 1827?1831. IEEE, 2012. [10] Amit Deshpande, Luis Rademacher, Santosh Vempala, and Grant Wang. Matrix approximation and projective clustering via volume sampling. Theory of Computing, 2:225?247, 2006. [11] Silvia Gandy, Benjamin Recht, and Isao Yamada. Tensor completion and low-n-rank tensor recovery via convex optimization. Inverse Problems, 27(2):025010, 2011. [12] Alex Gittens. The spectral norm error of the naive nystrom extension. arXiv preprint arXiv:1110.5305, 2011. [13] David Gross. Recovering low-rank matrices from few coefficients in any basis. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 57(3):1548?1566, 2011. [14] Venkatesan Guruswami and Ali Kemal Sinop. Optimal column-based low-rank matrix reconstruction. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms, pages 1207?1214. SIAM, 2012. [15] Jarvis D Haupt, Richard G Baraniuk, Rui M Castro, and Robert D Nowak. Compressive distilled sensing: Sparse recovery using adaptivity in compressive measurements. In Signals, Systems and Computers, 2009 Conference Record of the Forty-Third Asilomar Conference on, pages 1551?1555. IEEE, 2009. [16] Jun He, Laura Balzano, and John Lui. Online robust subspace tracking from partial information. arXiv preprint arXiv:1109.3827, 2011. [17] Raghunandan H Keshavan, Andrea Montanari, and Sewoong Oh. Matrix completion from noisy entries. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 99:2057?2078, 2010. [18] Sanjiv Kumar, Mehryar Mohri, and Ameet Talwalkar. Sampling methods for the nystr?om method. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 98888:981?1006, 2012. [19] B?eatrice Laurent and Pascal Massart. Adaptive estimation of a quadratic functional by model selection. The annals of Statistics, 28(5):1302?1338, 2000. [20] Sahand Negahban and Martin J Wainwright. Restricted strong convexity and weighted matrix completion: Optimal bounds with noise. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2012. [21] Benjamin Recht. A simpler approach to matrix completion. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7777777:3413?3430, 2011. [22] Ryota Tomioka, Kohei Hayashi, and Hisashi Kashima. Estimation of low-rank tensors via convex optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1010.0789, 2010. [23] Ryota Tomioka, Taiji Suzuki, Kohei Hayashi, and Hisashi Kashima. Statistical performance of convex tensor decomposition. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 972?980, 2011. [24] Roman Vershynin. Introduction to the non-asymptotic analysis of random matrices. arXiv preprint arXiv:1011.3027, 2010. 9
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Adaptive Submodular Maximization in Bandit Setting Victor Gabillon Branislav Kveton Zheng Wen INRIA Lille - team SequeL Technicolor Labs Electrical Engineering Department Villeneuve d?Ascq, France Palo Alto, CA Stanford University [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Brian Eriksson Technicolor Labs Palo Alto, CA [email protected] S. Muthukrishnan Department of Computer Science Rutgers [email protected] Abstract Maximization of submodular functions has wide applications in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Adaptive submodular maximization has been traditionally studied under the assumption that the model of the world, the expected gain of choosing an item given previously selected items and their states, is known. In this paper, we study the setting where the expected gain is initially unknown, and it is learned by interacting repeatedly with the optimized function. We propose an efficient algorithm for solving our problem and prove that its expected cumulative regret increases logarithmically with time. Our regret bound captures the inherent property of submodular maximization, earlier mistakes are more costly than later ones. We refer to our approach as Optimistic Adaptive Submodular Maximization (OASM) because it trades off exploration and exploitation based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty principle. We evaluate our method on a preference elicitation problem and show that non-trivial K-step policies can be learned from just a few hundred interactions with the problem. 1 Introduction Maximization of submodular functions [14] has wide applications in machine learning and artificial intelligence, such as social network analysis [9], sensor placement [10], and recommender systems [7, 2]. In this paper, we study the problem of adaptive submodular maximization [5]. This problem is a variant of submodular maximization where each item has a state and this state is revealed when the item is chosen. The goal is to learn a policy that maximizes the expected return for choosing K items. Adaptive submodular maximization has been traditionally studied in the setting where the model of the world, the expected gain of choosing an item given previously selected items and their states, is known. This is the first paper that studies the setting where the model is initially unknown, and it is learned by interacting repeatedly with the environment. We bring together the concepts of adaptive submodular maximization and bandits, and the result is an efficient solution to our problem. We make four major contributions. First, we propose a model where the expected gain of choosing an item can be learned efficiently. The main assumption in the model is that the state of each item is distributed independently of the other states. Second, we propose Optimistic Adaptive Submodular Maximization (OASM), a bandit algorithm that selects items with the highest upper confidence bound on the expected gain. This algorithm is computationally efficient and easy to implement. Third, we prove that the expected cumulative regret of our algorithm increases logarithmically with time. Our regret bound captures the inherent property of adaptive submodular maximization, earlier mistakes are more costly than later ones. Finally, we apply our approach to a real-world preference elicitation 1 problem and show that non-trivial policies can be learned from just a few hundred interactions with the problem. 2 Adaptive Submodularity In adaptive submodular maximization, the objective is to maximize, under constraints, a function of the form: L f : 2I ? {?1, 1} ? R, (1) where I = {1, . . . , L} is a set of L items and 2I is its power set. The first argument of f is a subset L of chosen items A ? I. The second argument is the state ? ? {?1, 1} of all items. The i-th entry of ?, ?[i], is the state of item i. The state ? is drawn i.i.d. from some probability distribution P (?). The reward for choosing items A in state ? is f (A, ?). For simplicity of exposition, we assume that f (?, ?) = 0 in all ?. In problems of our interest, the state is only partially observed. To capture this L phenomenon, we introduce the notion of observations. An observation is a vector y ? {?1, 0, 1} whose non-zero entries are the observed states of items. We say that y is an observation of state ?, and write ? ? y, if y[i] = ?[i] in all non-zero entries of y. Alternatively, the state ? can be viewed as a realization of y, one of many. We denote by dom (y) = {i : y[i] 6= 0} the observed items in y and by ?hAi the observation of items A in state ?. We define a partial ordering on observations and write y0  y if y0 [i] = y[i] in all non-zero entries of y, y0 is a more specific observation than y. In the terminology of Golovin and Krause [5], y is a subrealization of y0 . We illustrate our notation on a simple example. Let ? = (1, 1, ?1) be a state, and y1 = (1, 0, 0) and y2 = (1, 0, ?1) be observations. Then all of the following claims are true: ? ? y1 , ? ? y2 , y2  y1 , dom (y2 ) = {1, 3} , ?h{1, 3}i = y2 , ?hdom (y1 )i = y1 . Our goal is to maximize the expected value of f by adaptively choosing K items. This problem can be viewed as a K step game, where at each step we choose an item according to some policy ? and L then observe its state. A policy ? : {?1, 0, 1} ? I is a function from observations y to items. The observations represent our past decisions and their outcomes. A k-step policy in state ?, ?k (?), is a collection of the first k items chosen by policy ?. The policy is defined recursively as:  ?k (?) = ?k?1 (?) ? ?[k] (?) , ?[k] (?) = ?(?h?k?1 (?)i), ?0 (?) = ?, (2) where ?[k] (?) is the k-th item chosen by policy ? in state ?. The optimal K-step policy satisfies: ? ? = arg max? E? [f (?K (?), ?)] . (3) In general, the problem of computing ? ? is NP-hard [14, 5]. However, near-optimal policies can be computed efficiently when the maximized function has a diminishing return property. Formally, we require that the function is adaptive submodular and adaptive monotonic [5]. Definition 1. Function f is adaptive submodular if: E? [ f (A ? {i} , ?) ? f (A, ?) | ? ? yA ] ? E? [ f (B ? {i} , ?) ? f (B, ?) | ? ? yB ] for all items i ? I \ B and observations yB  yA , where A = dom (yA ) and B = dom (yB ). Definition 2. Function f is adaptive monotonic if E? [ f (A ? {i} , ?) ? f (A, ?) | ? ? yA ] ? 0 for all items i ? I \ A and observations yA , where A = dom (yA ). In other words, the expected gain of choosing an item is always non-negative and does not increase as the observations become more specific. Let ? g be the greedy policy for maximizing f , a policy that always selects the item with the highest expected gain: ? g (y) = arg max gi (y), (4) i?I\dom(y) where: gi (y) = E? [ f (dom (y) ? {i} , ?) ? f (dom (y) , ?) | ? ? y ] (5) is the expected gain of choosing item i after observing y. Then, based on the result of Golovin and g ? Krause [5], ? g is a (1 ? 1/e)-approximation to ? ? , E? [f (?K (?), ?)] ? (1 ? 1/e)E? [f (?K (?), ?)], if f is adaptive submodular and adaptive monotonic. In the rest of this paper, we say that an observation y is a context if it can be observed under the greedy policy ? g . Specifically, there exist k and ? such that y = ?h?kg (?)i. 2 3 Adaptive Submodularity in Bandit Setting The greedy policy ? g can be computed only if the objective function f and the distribution of states P (?) are known, because both of these quantities are needed to compute the marginal benefit gi (y) (Equation 5). In practice, the distribution P (?) is often unknown, for instance in a newly deployed sensor network where the failure rates of the sensors are unknown. In this paper, we study a natural variant of adaptive submodular maximization that can model such problems. The distribution P (?) is assumed to be unknown and we learn it by interacting repeatedly with the problem. 3.1 Model The problem of learning P (?) can be cast in many ways. One approach is to directly learn the joint P (?). This approach is not practical for two reasons. First, the number of states ? is exponential in the number of items L. Second, the state of our problem is observed only partially. As a result, it is generally impossible to identify the distribution that generates ?. Another possibility is to learn the probability of individual states ?[i] conditioned on context, observations y under the greedy policy ? g in up to K steps. This is impractical because the number of contexts is exponential in K. Clearly, additional structural assumptions are necessary to obtain a practical solution. In this paper, we assume that the states of items are independent of the context in which the items are chosen. In particular, the state ?[i] of each item i is drawn i.i.d. from a Bernoulli distribution with mean pi . In this setting, the joint probability distribution factors as: P (? = ?) = L Y 1{?[i]=1} pi (1 ? pi )1?1{?[i]=1} (6) i=1 and the problem of learning P (?) reduces to estimating L parameters, the means of the Bernoullis. A major question is how restrictive is our independence assumption. We argue that this assumption is fairly natural in many applications. For instance, consider a sensor network where the sensors fail at random due to manufacturing defects. The failures of these sensors are independent of each other and thus can be modeled in our framework. To validate our assumption, we conduct an experiment (Section 4) that shows that it does not greatly affect the performance of our method on a real-world problem. Correlations obviously exist and we discuss how to model them in Section 6. Based on the independence assumption, we rewrite the expected gain (Equation 5) as: gi (y) = pi g?i (y), (7) g?i (y) = E? [ f (dom (y) ? {i} , ?) ? f (dom (y) , ?) | ? ? y, ?[i] = 1 ] (8) where: is the expected gain when item i is in state 1. For simplicity of exposition, we assume that the gain is zero when the item is in state ?1. We discuss how to relax this assumption in Appendix. In general, the gain g?i (y) depends on P (?) and thus cannot be computed when P (?) is unknown. In this paper, we assume that g?i (y) can be computed without knowing P (?). This scenario is quite common in practice. In maximum coverage problems, for instance, it is quite reasonable to assume that the covered area is only a function of the chosen items and their states. In other words, the gain can be computed as g?i (y) = f (dom (y) ? {i} , ?) ? f (dom (y) , ?), where ? is any state such that ? ? y and ?[i] = 1. Our learning problem comprises n episodes. In episode t, we adaptively choose K items according to some policy ? t , which may differ from episode to P episode. The quality of the policy is measured n t by the expected cumulative K-step return E?1 ,...,?n [ t=1 f (?K (?t ), ?t )]. We compare this return g to that of the greedy policy ? and measure the difference between the two returns by the expected cumulative regret: " n # " n # X X g t R(n) = E?1 ,...,?n Rt (?t ) = E?1 ,...,?n f (?K (?t ), ?t ) ? f (?K (?t ), ?t ) . (9) t=1 t=1 In maximum coverage problems, the greedy policy ? is a good surrogate for the optimal policy ? ? because it is a (1 ? 1/e)-approximation to ? ? (Section 2). g 3 Algorithm 1 OASM: Optimistic adaptive submodular maximization. Input: States ?1 , . . . , ?n for all i ? I do Select item i and set p?i,1 to its state, Ti (0) ? 1 end for . Initialization for all t = 1, 2, . . . , n do A?? for all k = 1, 2, . . . , K do . K-step maximization y ? ?t hAi( ) A?A? arg max (? pi,Ti (t?1) + ct?1,Ti (t?1) )? gi (y) . Choose the highest index i?I\A end for for all i ? I do Ti (t) ? Ti (t ? 1) end for for all i ? A do Ti (t) ? Ti (t) + 1 p?i,Ti (t) ? Ti1(t) (? pi,Ti (t?1) Ti (t ? 1) + 21 (?t [i] + 1)) end for end for 3.2 . Update statistics Algorithm Our algorithm is designed based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty principle, a strategy that is at the core of many bandit algorithms [1, 8, 13]. More specifically, it is a greedy policy where the expected gain gi (y) (Equation 7) is substituted for its optimistic estimate. The algorithm adaptively maximizes a submodular function in an optimistic fashion and therefore we refer to it as Optimistic Adaptive Submodular Maximization (OASM). The pseudocode of our method is given in Algorithm 1. In each episode, we maximize the function f in K steps. At each step, we compute the index (? pi,Ti (t?1) + ct?1,Ti (t?1) )? gi (y) of each item that has not been selected yet and then choose the item with the highest index. The terms p?i,Ti (t?1) and ct?1,Ti (t?1) are the maximum-likelihood estimate of the probability pi from the first t ? 1 episodes and the radius of the confidence interval around this estimate, respectively. Formally: r s 1X1 2 log(t) p?i,s = (?? (i,z) [i] + 1), ct,s = , (10) s z=1 2 s where s is the number of times that item i is chosen and ? (i, z) is the index of the episode in which item i is chosen for the z-th time. In episode t, we set s to Ti (t ? 1), the number of times that item i is selected in the first t ? 1 episodes. The radius ct,s is designed such that each index is with high probability an upper bound on the corresponding gain. The index enforces exploration of items that have not been chosen very often. As the number of past episodes increases, all confidence intervals shrink and our method starts exploiting most profitable items. The log(t) term guarantees that each item is explored infinitely often as t ? ?, to avoid linear regret. Algorithm OASM has several notable properties. First, it is a greedy method. Therefore, our policies can be computed very fast. Second, it is guaranteed to behave near optimally as our estimates of the gain gi (y) become more accurate. We prove this claim in Section 3.3. Finally, our algorithm learns only L parameters and therefore is quite practical. Specifically, note that if an item is chosen in one context, it helps in refining the estimate of the gain gi (y) in all other contexts. 3.3 Analysis In this section, we prove an upper bound on the expected cumulative regret of Algorithm OASM in n episodes. Before we present the main result, we define notation used in our analysis. We denote by i? (y) = ? g (y) the item chosen by the greedy policy ? g in context y. Without loss of generality, we assume that this item is unique in all contexts. The hardness of discriminating between items i and i? (y) is measured by a gap between the expected gains of the items: ?i (y) = gi? (y) (y) ? gi (y). (11) Our analysis is based on counting how many times the policies ? t and ? g choose a different item at step k. Therefore, we define several variables that describe the state of our problem at this step. We 4 S denote by Yk (?) = ? {?h?k?1 (?)i} the set of all possible observations after policy ? is executed for k ? 1 steps. We write Yk = Yk (? g ) and Ykt = Yk (? t ) when we refer to the policies ? g and ? t , respectively. Finally, we denote by Yk,i = Yk ? {y : i 6= i? (y)} the set of contexts where item i is suboptimal at step k. Our main result is Theorem 1. Supplementary material for its proof is in Appendix. The terms item and arm are treated as synonyms, and we use whichever is more appropriate in a given context. Theorem 1. The expected cumulative regret of Algorithm OASM is bounded as: L K K X X X 2 R(n) ? `i Gk ?i,k + ? 2 L(L + 1) Gk , 3 i=1 k=1 k=1 {z } | {z } | O(log n) (12) O(1) where Gk = (K ? k + 1) max max gi (y) is an upper bound on the expected gain of the policy ? g y?Yk i   g ?2 (y) from step k forward, `i,k = 8 max ?i2 (y) log n is the number of pulls after which arm i is not y?Yk,i i + 1 likely to be pulled suboptimally at step k, `i = max `i,k , and ?i,k = `i,k ? max `i,k0 ? [0, 1] 0 k k <k PK `i is a weight that associates the regret of arm i to step k such that k=1 ?i,k = 1. Proof. Our theorem is proved in three steps. First, we associate the regret in episode t with the first step where our policy ? t selects a different item from the greedy policy ? g . For simplicity, suppose that this step is step k. Then the regret in episode t can be written as: g t Rt (?t ) = f (?K (?t ), ?t ) ? f (?K (?t ), ?t ) g g t t = f (?K (?t ), ?t ) ? f (?k?1 (?t ), ?t ) ?[f (?K (?t ), ?t ) ? f (?k?1 (?t ), ?t )], {z } | {z } | g Fk? (?t ) (13) t (? ) Fk? t g g t where the last equality is due to the assumption that ?[j] (?t ) = ?[j] (?t ) for all j < k; and Fk? (?t ) t g t and Fk? (?t ) are the gains of the policies ? and ? , respectively, in state ?t from step k forward. In practice, the first step where the policies ? t and ? g choose a different item is unknown, because ? g is unknown. In this case, the regret can be written as: Rt (?t ) = K L X X g t 1i,k,t (?t )(Fk? (?t ) ? Fk? (?t )), (14) i=1 k=1 where: n  o g g t t t 1i,k,t (?) = 1 ?j < k : ?[j] (?) = ?[j] (?) , ?[k] (?) 6= ?[k] (?), ?[k] (?) = i (15) is the indicator of the event that the policies ? t and ? g choose the same first k ? 1 items in state ?, disagree in the k-th item, and i is the k-th item chosen by ? t . The commas in the indicator function represent logical conjunction. Second, in Lemma 1 we bound the expected loss associated with choosing the first different item at step k by the probability of this event and an upper bound on the expected loss Gk , which does not depend on ? t and ?t . Based on this result, we bound the expected cumulative regret as: " n # " n L K # X XXX g t E?1 ,...,?n Rt (?t ) = E?1 ,...,?n 1i,k,t (?t )(Fk? (?t ) ? Fk? (?t )) t=1 t=1 i=1 k=1 = L X K X n X    g t E?1 ,...,?t?1 E?t 1i,k,t (?t )(Fk? (?t ) ? Fk? (?t )) i=1 k=1 t=1 ? L X K X n X E?1 ,...,?t?1 [E?t [1i,k,t (?t )] Gk ] i=1 k=1 t=1 = L X K X Gk E?1 ,...,?n " n X t=1 i=1 k=1 5 # 1i,k,t (?t ) . (16) Finally, motivated by the analysis of UCB1 [1], we rewrite the indicator 1i,k,t (?t ) as: 1i,k,t (?t ) = 1i,k,t (?t )1{Ti (t ? 1) ? `i,k } + 1i,k,t (?t )1{Ti (t ? 1) > `i,k } , (17) where `i,k is a problem-specific constant. In Lemma 4, we show how to choose `i,k such that arm i at step k is pulled suboptimally a constant number of times in expectation after `i,k pulls. Based on this result, the regret corresponding to the events 1{Ti (t ? 1) > `i,k } is bounded as: " n # L X K K X X X 2 Gk . (18) Gk E?1 ,...,?n 1i,k,t (?t )1{Ti (t ? 1) > `i,k } ? ? 2 L(L + 1) 3 t=1 i=1 k=1 k=1 On the other hand, the regret associated with the events 1{Ti (t ? 1) ? `i,k } is trivially bounded by PL PK i=1 k=1 Gk `i,k . A tighter upper bound is proved below: # "K L n X X X E?1 ,...,?n Gk 1i,k,t (?t )1{Ti (t ? 1) ? `i,k } i=1 ? i=1 ? t=1 k=1 L X " max ?1 ,...,?n L X K X K X k=1 Gk n X # 1i,k,t (?t )1{Ti (t ? 1) ? `i,k } t=1  + 0 Gk `i,k ? max ` . i,k 0 i=1 k=1 k <k (19) The last inequality can be proved as follows. Our upper bound on the expected loss at step k, Gk , is monotonically decreasing with k, and therefore G1 ? G2 ? . . . ? GK . So for any given arm i, the highest cumulative regret subject to the constraint Ti (t ? 1) ? `i,k at step k is achieved as follows. + The first `i,1 mistakes are made at the first step, [`i,2 ? `i,1 ] mistakes are made at the second step, + [`i,3 ? max{`i,1 , `i,2 }] mistakes are made at the third step, and so on. Specifically, the number of + mistakes at step k is [`i,k ? maxk0 <k `i,k0 ] and the associated loss is Gk . Our main claim follows from combining the upper bounds in Equations 18 and 19. 3.4 Discussion of Theoretical Results Algorithm OASM mimics the greedy policy ? g . Therefore, we decided to prove Theorem 1 based on counting how many times the policies ? t and ? g choose a different item. Our proof has three parts. First, we associate the regret in episode t with the first step where the policy ? t chooses a different item from ? g . Second, we bound the expected regret in each episode by the probability of deviating from the policy ? g at step k and an upper bound on the associated loss Gk , which depends only on k. Finally, we divide the expected cumulative regret into two terms, before and after item i at step k is selected a sufficient number of times `i,k , and then set `i,k such that both terms are O(log n). We would like to stress that our proof is relatively general. Our modeling assumptions (Section 3.1) are leveraged only in Lemma 4. In the rest of the proof, we only assume that f is adaptive submodular and adaptive monotonic. Our regret bound has several notable properties. First, it is logarithmic in the number of episodes n, through problem-specific constants `i,k . So we recover a classical result from the bandit literature. Second, the bound is polynomial in all constants of interest, such as the number of items L and the number of maximization steps K in each episode. We would like to stress that it is not linear in the number of contexts YK at step K, which is exponential in K. Finally, note that our bound captures the shape of the optimized function f . In particular, because the function f is adaptive submodular, the upper bound on the gain of the policy ? g from step k forward, Gk , decreases as k increases. As a result, earlier deviations from ? g are penalized more than later ones. 4 Experiments Our algorithm is evaluated on a preference elicitation problem in a movie recommendation domain. This problem is cast as asking K yes-or-no movie-genre questions. The users and their preferences are extracted from the MovieLens dataset [11], a dataset of 6k users who rated one million movies. 6 30 Covered movies [%] gi (0) g?i (0) P (?[i] = 1) 4.1% 13.0% 0.32 4.1% 9.2% 0.44 3.2% 6.6% 0.48 3.0% 8.0% 0.38 2.8% 23.0% 0.12 2.6% 6.0% 0.44 2.6% 5.8% 0.44 2.3% 19.6% 0.12 Genre Crime Children?s Animation Horror Sci-Fi Musical Fantasy Adventure 20 g ? g d 10 Deterministic ? g f Factored ? 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Number of questions K 16 18 Figure 1: Left. Eight movie genres that cover the largest number of movies in expectation. Right. Comparison of three greedy policies for solving our preference elicitation problem. For each policy and K ? L, we report the expected percentage of covered movies after K questions. K=2 K=4 Covered movies [%] 10 K=8 15 25 8 20 10 6 15 4 5 10 2 0 1 10 2 10 3 4 10 10 Episode t 5 10 0 1 10 2 10 3 4 10 10 Episode t 5 10 5 1 10 2 10 3 4 10 10 Episode t 5 10 Figure 2: The expected return of the OASM policy ? t (cyan lines) in all episodes up to t = 105 . The return is compared to those of the greedy policies ? g (blue lines), ?fg (red lines), and ?dg (gray lines) in the offline setting (Figure 1) at the same operating point, the number of asked questions K. We choose 500 most rated movies from the dataset. Each movie l is represented by a feature vector xl such that xl [i] = 1 if the movie belongs to genre i and xl [i] = 0 if it does not. The preference of user j for genre i is measured by tf-idf, a popular importance  score in information retrieval [12]. In  nu particular, it is defined as tf-idf(j, i) = #(j, i) log #(?,i) , where #(j, i) is the number of movies from genre i rated by user j, nu is the number of users, and #(?, i) is the number of users that rated at least one movie from genre i. Intuitively, this score prefers genres that are often rated by the user but rarely rated overall. Each user j is represented by a genre preference vector ? such that ?[i] = 1 when genre i is among five most favorite genres of the user. These genres cover on average 25% of our movies. In Figure 1, we show several popular genres from our dataset. The reward for asking user ? questions A is: P500 f (A, ?) = 15 l=1 maxi [xl [i]1{?[i] = 1} 1{i ? A}] , (20) the percentage of movies that belong to at least one genre i that is preferred by the user and queried in A. The function f captures the notion that knowing more preferred genres is better than knowing less. It is submodular in A for any given preference vector ?, and therefore adaptive submodular in A when the preferences are distributed independently of each other (Equation 6). In this setting, the expected value of f can be maximized near optimally by a greedy policy (Equation 4). In the first experiment, we show that our assumption on P (?) (Equation 6) is not very restrictive in our domain. We compare three greedy policies for maximizing f that know P (?) and differ in how the expected gain of choosing items is estimated. The first policy ? g makes no assumption on P (?) and computes the gain according to Equation 5. The second policy ?fg assumes that the distribution P (?) is factored and computes the gain using Equation 7. Finally, the third policy ?dg computes the gain according to Equation 8, essentially ignoring the stochasticity of our problem. All policies are applied to all users in our dataset for all K ? L and their expected returns are reported in Figure 1. We observe two trends. First, the policy ?fg usually outperforms the policy ?dg by a large margin. So although our independence assumption may be incorrect, it is a better approximation than ignoring 7 the stochastic nature of the problem. Second, the expected return of ?fg is always within 84% of ? g . We conclude that ?fg is a good approximation to ? g . In the second experiment, we study how the OASM policy ? t improves over time. In each episode t, we randomly choose a new user ?t and then the policy ? t asks K questions. The expected return of ? t is compared to two offline baselines, ?fg and ?dg . The policies ?fg and ?dg can be viewed as upper and lower bounds on the expected return of ? t , respectively. Our results are shown in Figure 2. We observe two major trends. First, ? t easily outperforms the baseline ?dg that ignores the stochasticity of our problem. In two cases, this happens in less than ten episodes. Second, the expected return of ? t approaches that of ?fg , as is expected based on our analysis. 5 Related Work Our paper is motivated by prior work in the areas of submodularity [14, 5] and bandits [1]. Similar problems to ours were studied by several authors. For instance, Yue and Guestrin [17], and Guillory and Bilmes [6], applied bandits to submodular problems in a non-adaptive setting. In our work, we focus on the adaptive setting. This setting is more challenging because we learn a K-step policy for choosing items, as opposing to a single set of items. Wen et al. [16] studied a variant of generalized binary search, sequential Bayesian search, where the policy for asking questions is learned on-thefly by interacting with the environment. A major observation of Wen et al. [16] is that this problem can be solved near optimally without exploring. As a result, its solution and analysis are completely different from those in our paper. Learning with trees was studied in machine learning in many settings, such as online learning with tree experts [3]. This work is similar to ours only in trying to learn a tree. The notions of regret and the assumptions on solved problems are completely different. Optimism in the face of uncertainty is a popular approach to designing learning algorithms, and it was previously applied to more general problems than ours, such as planning [13] and MDPs [8]. Both of these solutions are impractical in our setting. The former assumes that the model of the world is known and the latter is computationally intractable. 6 Conclusions This is the first work that studies adaptive submodular maximization in the setting where the model of the world is initially unknown. We propose an efficient bandit algorithm for solving the problem and prove that its expected cumulative regret increases logarithmically with time. Our work can be viewed as reinforcement learning (RL) [15] for adaptive submodularity. The main difference in our setting is that we can learn near-optimal policies without estimating the value function. Learning of value functions is typically hard, even when the model of the problem is known. Fortunately, this is not necessary in our problem and therefore we can develop a very efficient learning algorithm. We assume that the states of items are distributed independently of each other. In our experiments, this assumption was less restrictive than we expected (Section 4). Nevertheless, we believe that our approach should be studied under less restrictive assumptions. In preference elicitation (Section 4), for instance, the answers to questions are likely to be correlated due to many factors, such as user?s preferences, user?s mood, and the similarity of the questions. Our current model cannot capture any of these dependencies. However, we believe that our approach is quite general and can be extended to more complex models. We think that any such generalization would comprise three major steps: choosing a model of P (?), deriving a corresponding upper confidence bound on the expected gain, and finally proving an equivalent of Lemma 4. We also assume that the expected gain of choosing an item (Equation 7) can be written as a product of some known gain function (Equation 8) and the probability of the item?s states. This assumption is quite natural in maximum coverage problems but may not be appropriate in other problems, such as generalized binary search [4]. Our upper bound on the expected regret at step k (Lemma 1) may be loose in practice because it is obtained by maximizing over all contexts y ? Yk . In general, it is difficult to prove a tighter bound. Such a bound would have to depend on the probability of making a mistake in a specific context at step k, which depends on the policy in that episode, and indirectly on the progress of learning in all earlier episodes. We leave this for future work. 8 References [1] Peter Auer, Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi, and Paul Fischer. Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem. Machine Learning, 47:235?256, 2002. [2] Sandilya Bhamidipati, Branislav Kveton, and S. Muthukrishnan. Minimal interaction search: Multi-way search with item categories. In Proceedings of AAAI Workshop on Intelligent Techniques for Web Personalization and Recommendation, 2013. [3] Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and Gabor Lugosi. Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2006. [4] Sanjoy Dasgupta. Analysis of a greedy active learning strategy. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 337?344, 2005. [5] Daniel Golovin and Andreas Krause. 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Near-optimal sensor placements in Gaussian processes: Theory, efficient algorithms and empirical studies. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:235?284, 2008. [11] Shyong Lam and Jon Herlocker. MovieLens 1M Dataset. http://www.grouplens.org/node/12, 2012. [12] Christopher Manning, Prabhakar Raghavan, and Hinrich Sch?utze. Introduction to Information Retrieval. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2008. [13] R?emi Munos. The optimistic principle applied to games, optimization, and planning: Towards foundations of Monte-Carlo tree search. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2012. [14] G. L. Nemhauser, L. A. Wolsey, and M. L. Fisher. An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions - I. Mathematical Programming, 14(1):265?294, 1978. [15] Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998. [16] Zheng Wen, Branislav Kveton, Brian Eriksson, and Sandilya Bhamidipati. Sequential Bayesian search. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 977? 983, 2013. [17] Yisong Yue and Carlos Guestrin. Linear submodular bandits and their application to diversified retrieval. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, pages 2483?2491, 2011. 9
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Auditing: Active Learning with Outcome-Dependent Query Costs Sivan Sabato Microsoft Research New England [email protected] Anand D. Sarwate TTI-Chicago [email protected] Nathan Srebro Technion-Israel Institute of Technology and TTI-Chicago [email protected] Abstract We propose a learning setting in which unlabeled data is free, and the cost of a label depends on its value, which is not known in advance. We study binary classification in an extreme case, where the algorithm only pays for negative labels. Our motivation are applications such as fraud detection, in which investigating an honest transaction should be avoided if possible. We term the setting auditing, and consider the auditing complexity of an algorithm: the number of negative labels the algorithm requires in order to learn a hypothesis with low relative error. We design auditing algorithms for simple hypothesis classes (thresholds and rectangles), and show that with these algorithms, the auditing complexity can be significantly lower than the active label complexity. We also show a general competitive approach for learning with outcome-dependent costs. 1 Introduction Active learning algorithms seek to mitigate the cost of learning by using unlabeled data and sequentially selecting examples to query for their label to minimize total number of queries. In some cases, however, the actual cost of each query depends on the true label of the example and is thus not known before the label is requested. For instance, in detecting fraudulent credit transactions, a query with a positive answer is not wasteful, whereas a negative answer is the result of a wasteful investigation of an honest transaction, and perhaps a loss of good-will. More generally, in a multiclass setting, different queries may entail different costs, depending on the outcome of the query. In this work we focus on the binary case, and on the extreme version of the problem, as described in the example of credit fraud, in which the algorithm only pays for queries which return a negative label. We term this setting auditing, and the cost incurred by the algorithm its auditing complexity. There are several natural ways to measure performance for auditing. For example, we may wish the algorithm to maximize the number of positive labels it finds for a fixed ?budget? of negative labels, or to minimize the number of negative labels while finding a certain number or fraction of positive labels. In this work we focus on the classical learning problem, in which one attempts to learn a classifier from a fixed hypothesis class, with an error close to the best possible. Similar to active learning, we assume we are given a large set of unlabeled examples, and aim to learn with minimal labeling cost. But unlike active learning, we only incur a cost when requesting the label of an example that turns out to be negative. The close relationship between auditing and active learning raises natural questions. Can the auditing complexity be significantly better than the label complexity in active learning? If so, should 1 algorithms be optimized for auditing, or do optimal active learning algorithms also have low auditing complexity? To answer these questions, and demonstrate the differences between active learning and auditing, we study the simple hypothesis classes of thresholds and of axis-aligned rectangles in Rd , in both the realizable and the agnostic settings. We then also consider a general competitive analysis for arbitrary hypothesis classes. Other work. Existing work on active learning with costs (Margineantu, 2007; Kapoor et al., 2007; Settles et al., 2008; Golovin and Krause, 2011) typically assumes that the cost of labeling each point is known a priori, so the algorithm can use the costs directly to select a query. Our model is significantly different, as the costs depend on the outcome of the query itself. Kapoor et al. (2007) do mention the possibility of class-dependent costs, but this possibility is not studied in detail. An unrelated game-theoretic learning model addressing ?auditing? was proposed by Blocki et al. (2011). Notation and Setup For an integer m, let [m] = {1, 2, . . . , m}. The function I[A] is the indicator function of a set A. For a function f and a sub-domain X, f |X is the restriction of f to X. For vectors a and b in Rd , the inequality a ? b implies ai ? bi for all i ? [d]. We assume a data domain X and a distribution D over labeled data points in X ? {?1, +1}. A learning algorithm may sample i.i.d. pairs (X, Y ) ? D. It then has access to the value of X, but the ? : X ? {?1, +1}. label Y remains hidden until queried. The algorithm returns a labeling function h The error of a function h : X ? {?1, +1} on D is err(D, h) = E(X,Y )?D [h(X) 6= Y ]. The error P 1 of h on a multiset S ? X ? {?1, +1} is given by err(S, h) = |S| (x,y)?S I[h(x) 6= y]. The passive sample complexity of an algorithm is the number of pairs it draws from D. The active label complexity of an algorithm is the total number of label queries the algorithm makes. Its auditing complexity is the number of queries the algorithm makes on points with negative labels. We consider guarantees for learning algorithms relative to a hypothesis class H ? {?1, +1}X . We denote the error of the best hypothesis in H on D by err(D, H) = minh?H err(D, h). Similarly, err(S, H) = minh?H err(S, h). We usually denote the best error for D by ? = err(D, H). To describe our algorithms it will be convenient to define the following sample sizes, using universal constants C, c > 0. Let ? ? (0, 1) be a confidence parameter, and let  ? (0, 1) be an error parameter. Let mag (, ?, d) = C(d + ln(c/?))/2 . If a sample S is drawn from D with |S| = mag (, ?, d) then with probability 1 ? ?, ?h ? H, err(D, h) ? err(S, h) +  and err(S, H) ? err(D, H) +  (Bartlett and Mendelson, 2002). Let m? (, ?, d) = C(d ln(c/?) + ln(c/?))/? 2 . Results of Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1971) show that if H has VC dimension d and S is drawn from D with |S| = m? , then for all h ? H, err(S, h) ? max {err(D, h)(1 + ?), err(D, h) + ?} and err(D, h) ? max {err(S, h)(1 + ?), err(S, h) + ?} . 2 (1) Active Learning vs. Auditing: Summary of Results The main point of this paper is that the auditing complexity can be quite different from the active label complexity, and that algorithms tuned to minimizing the audit label complexity give improvements over standard active learning algorithms. Before presenting these differences, we note that in some regimes, neither active learning nor auditing can improve significantly over the passive sample complexity. In particular, a simple adaptation of a result of Beygelzimer et al. (2009), establishes the following lower bound. Lemma 2.1. Let H be a hypothesis class with VC dimension d > 1. If an algorithm always finds a ? with err(D, h) ? ? err(D, H)+ for  > 0, then for any ? ? (0, 1) there is a distribution hypothesis h D with ? = err(D, H) such that the auditing complexity of this algorithm for D is ?(d? 2 /2 ). That is, when ? is fixed while  ? 0, the auditing complexity scales as ?(d/2 ), similar to the passive sample complexity. Therefore the two situations which are interesting are the realizable 2 case, corresponding to ? = 0, and the agnostic case, when we want to guarantee an excess error  such that ?/ is bounded. We provide results for both of these regimes. We will first consider the realizable case, when ? = 0. Here it is sufficient to consider the case ? such that where a fixed pool S of m points is given and the algorithm must return a hypothesis h ? err(S, h) = 0 with probability 1. A pool labeling algorithm can be used to learn a hypothesis which is good for a distribution by drawing and labeling a large enough pool. We define auditing complexity for an unlabeled pool as the minimal number of negative labels needed to perfectly classify it. It is easy to see that there are pools with an auditing complexity at least the VC dimension of the hypothesis class. For the agnostic case, when ? > 0, we denote ? = /? and say that an algorithm (?, ?)-learns a ? returned by class of distributions D with respect to H if for all D ? D, with probability 1 ? ?, h ? ? (1 + ?)?. By Lemma 2.1 an auditing complexity of ?(d/?2 ) the algorithm satisfies err(D, h) is unavoidable, but we can hope to improve over the passive sample complexity lower bound of ?(d/??2 ) (Devroye and Lugosi, 1995) by avoiding the dependence on ?. Our main results are summarized in Table 1, which shows the auditing and active learning complexities in the two regimes, for thresholds on [0, 1] and axis-aligned rectangles in Rd , where we assume that the hypotheses label the points in the rectangle as negative and points outside as positive. Thresholds Realizable Rectangles Agnostic Thresholds Rectangles Active ?(ln m)   m  ? ln ?1 + ?12    ? d ?1 + ?12 Auditing 1 2d  O ?12    O d2 ln2 ?1 ? ?12 ln 1 ?  Table 1: Auditing complexity upper bounds vs. active label complexity lower bounds for realizable (pool size m) and agnostic (err(D, H) = ?) cases. Agnostic bounds are for (?, ?)-learning with a fixed ?, where ? = /?. In the realizable case, for thresholds, the optimal active learning algorithm performs binary search, resulting in ?(ln m) labels in the worst case. This is a significant improvement over the passive label complexity of m. However, a simple auditing procedure that scans from right to left queries only a single negative point, achieving an auditing complexity of 1. For rectangles, we present a simple coordinate-wise scanning procedure with auditing complexity of at most 2d, demonstrating a huge gap versus active learning, where the labels of all m points might be required. Not all classes enjoy reduced auditing complexity: we also show that for rectangles with positive points on the inside, there exists pools of size m with an auditing complexity of m. In the agnostic case we wish to (?, ?)-learn distributions with a true error of ? = err(D, H), for constant ?, ?. For active learning, it has been shown that in some cases, the ?(d/?) passive sample complexity can be replaced by an exponentially smaller O(d ln(1/?)) active label complexity (Hanneke, 2011), albeit sometimes with a larger polynomial dependence on d. In other cases, an ?(1/?) dependence exists also for active learning. Our main question is whether the dependence on ? in the active label complexity can be further reduced for auditing. For thresholds, active learning requires ?(ln(1/?)) labels (Kulkarni et al., 1993). Using auditing, we show that the dependence on ? can be completely removed, for any true error level ? > 0, if we know ? in advance. We also show that if ? is not known at least approximately, the logarithmic dependence on 1/? is unavoidable also for auditing. For rectangles, we show that the active label complexity is at least ?(d/?). In contrast, we propose an algorithm with an auditing complexity of O(d2 ln2 (1/?)), reducing the linear dependence on 1/? to a logarithmic dependence. We do not know whether a linear dependence on d is possible with a logarithmic dependence on 1/?. Omitted proofs of results below are provided in the extended version of this paper (Sabato et al., 2013). 3 3 Auditing for Thresholds on the Line The first question to ask is whether the audit label complexity can ever be significantly smaller than the active or passive label complexities, and whether a different algorithm is required to achieve this improvement. The following simple case answers both questions in the affirmative. Consider the hypothesis class of thresholds on the line, defined over the domain X = [0, 1]. A hypothesis with threshold a is ha (x) = I[x ? a ? 0]. The hypothesis class is Ha = {ha | a ? [0, 1]}. Consider the pool setting for the realizable case. The optimal active label complexity of ?(log2 m) can be achieved by a binary search on the pool. The auditing complexity of this algorithm can also be as large as ?(log2 (m)). However, auditing allows us to beat this barrier. This case exemplifies an interesting contrast between auditing and active learning. Due to information-theoretic considerations, any algorithm which learns an unlabeled pool S has an active label complexity of at least log2 |H|S | (Kulkarni et al., 1993), where H|S is the set of restrictions of functions in H to the domain S. For Ha , log2 |Ha |S | = ?(log2 m). However, the same considerations are invalid for auditing. We showed that for the realizable case, the auditing label complexity for Ha is a constant. We now provide a more complex algorithm that guarantees this for (?, ?)-learning in the agnostic case. The intuition behind our approach is that to get the optimal threshold in a pool with at most k errors, we can query from highest to lowest until observing k + 1 negative points and then find the minimal error threshold on the labeled points. Lemma 3.1. Let S be a pool of size m in [0, 1], and assume that err(S, Ha ) ? k/m. Then the ? such that err(S, h) ? = err(S, Ha ) with an auditing complexity of k + 1. procedure above finds h Proof. Denote the last queried point by x0 , and let ha? = argminh?Ha err(S, Ha ). Since err(S, ha? ) ? k/m, a? > x0 . Denote by S 0 ? S the set of points queried by the procedure. For any a > x0 , err(S 0 , ha ) = err(S, ha ) + |{(x, y) ? S | x < x0 , y = 1}|/m. Therefore, minimizing the error on S 0 results in a hypothesis that minimizes the error on S. To learn from a distribution, one can draw a random sample and use it as the pool in the procedure above. However, the sample size required for passive (?, ?)-learning of thresholds is ?(ln(1/?)/?). Thus, the number of errors in the pool would be k = ???(ln(1/?)/?) = ?(ln(1/?)), which depends on ?. To avoid this dependence, the auditing algorithm we propose uses Alg. 1 below to select a subset of the random sample, which still represents the distribution well, but its size is only ?(1/?). Lemma 3.2. Let ?, ?max ? (0, 1). Let S be a pool such that err(S, Ha ) ? ?max . Let Sq be the ? = argmin output of Alg. 1 with inputs S, ?max , ?, and let h h?Ha err(Sq , Ha ). Then with probability 1 ? ?, ? ? 6?max and err(S, h) ? ? 17?max . err(Sq , h) The algorithm for auditing thresholds on the line in the agnostic case is listed in Alg. 2. This algorithm first achieves (C, ?) learning of Ha for a fixed C (in step 7, based on Lemma 3.2 and Lemma 3.1, and then improves its accuracy to achieve (?, ?)-learning for ? > 0, by additional passive sampling in a restricted region. The following theorem provides the guarantees for Alg. 2. Algorithm 1: Representative Subset Selection 1: Input: pool S = (x1 , . . . , xm ) (with hidden labels), xi ? [0, 1], ?max ? (0, 1], ? ? (0, 1). 2: T ? max{b1/3?max c, 1}. 3: Let U = {x1 , . . . , x1 , . . . , xm , . . . , xm } be the multiset with T copies of each point in S. | {z } | {z } T copies T copies 4: Sort and rename the points in U such that x0i ? x0i+1 for all i ? [T m]. 5: Let Sq be an empty multiset. 6: for t = 1 to T do 7: S(t) ? {x0(t?1)m+1 , . . . , x0tm }. 8: Draw 14 ln(8/?) random points from S(t) independently uniformly at random and add them to Sq (with duplications). 9: end for 10: Return Sq (with the corresponding hidden labels). 4 Algorithm 2: Auditing for Thresholds with a constant ? 1: Input: ?max , ?, ? ? (0, 1), access to distribution D such that err(D, Ha ) ? ?max . 2: ? ? ?/5. 3: Draw a random labeled pool (with hidden labels) S0 of size m? (?, ?/2, 1) from D. 4: Draw a random sample S of size mag ((1 + ?)?max , ?/2, 1) uniformly from S0 . 5: Get a subset Sq using Alg. 1 with inputs S, 2(1 + ?)?max , ?/2. 6: Query points in Sq from highest to lowest. Stop after d12|Sq |(1 + ?)?max e + 1 negatives. ? such that ha? minimizes the error on the labeled part of Sq . 7: Find a ? in S from each side of a ?. 8: Let S1 be the set of the 36(1 + ?)?max |S0 | closest points to a 9: Draw S2 of size mag (?/72, ?/2, 1) from S1 (see definition on page 2). ? that minimizes the error on S2 . 10: Query all points in S2 , and return h Theorem 3.3. Let ?max , ?, ? ? (0, 1). Let D be a distribution with error err(D, Ha ) ? ?max . ? such that Alg. 2 with input ?max , ?, ? has an auditing complexity of O(ln(1/?)/?2 ), and returns h ? ? (1 + ?)?max . with probability 1 ? ?, err(D, h) It immediately follows that if ? = err(D, H) is known, (?, ?)-learning is achievable with an auditing complexity that does not depend on ?. This is formulated in the following corollary. Corollary 3.4 ((?, ?)-learning for Ha ). Let ?, ?, ? ? (0, 1]. For any distribution D with error err(D, Ha ) = ?, Alg. 2 with inputs ?max = ?, ?, ? (?, ?)-learns D with respect to Ha with an auditing complexity of O(ln(1/?)/?2 ). A similar result holds if the error is known up to a multiplicative constant. But what if no bound on ? is known? The following lower bound shows that in this case, the best active complexity for threshold this similar to the best active label complexity. Theorem 3.5 (Lower bound on auditing Ha without ?max ). Consider any constant ? ? 0. For any ? ? (0, 1), if an auditing algorithm (?, ?)-learns any distribution D such that err(D, Ha ) ? ?min , then the algorithm?s auditing complexity is ?(ln( 1?? ? ) ln(1/?min )). In the next section show that there are classes with a significant gap between active and auditing complexities even without an upper bound on the error. 4 Axis Aligned Rectangles A natural extension of thresholds to higher dimension is the class of axis-aligned rectangles, in which the labels are determined by a d-dimensional hyperrectangle. This hypothesis class, first introduced in Blumer et al. (1989), has been studied extensively in different regimes (Kearns, 1998; Long and Tan, 1998), including active learning (Hanneke, 2007b). An axis-aligned-rectangle hypothesis is a disjunction of 2d thresholds. For simplicity of presentation, we consider here the slightly simpler class of disjunctions of d thresholds over the positive orthant Rd+ . It is easy to reduce learning of an axis-aligned rectangle in Rd to learning of a disjunction of thresholds in R2d by mapping each point ? ? R2d such that for i ? [d], x x ? Rd to a point x ?[i] = max(x[i], 0) and x ?[i + d] = max(0, ?x[i])). Thus learning the class of disjunctions is equivalent, up to a factor of two in the dimensionality, to learning rectangles1 . Because auditing costs are asymmetric, we consider two possibilities for label assignment. For a vector a = (a[1], . . . , a[d]) ? Rd+ , define the hypotheses ha and h? a by ha (x) = 2I[?i ? [d], x[i] ? a[i]] ? 1, and h? a (x) = ?ha (x). ? d Define H2 = {ha | a ? Rd+ } and H2 = {h? a | a ? R+ }. In H2 the positive points are outside ? the rectangle and in H2 the negatives are outside. Both classes have VC dimension d. All of our results for these classes can be easily extended to the corresponding classes of general axis-aligned rectangles on Rd , with at most a factor of two penalty on the auditing complexity. 1 This reduction suffices if the origin is known to be in the rectangle. Our algorithms and results can all be extended to the case where rectangles are not required to include the origin. To keep the algorithm and analysis as simple as possible, we state the result for this special case. 5 4.1 The Realizable Case We first consider the pool setting for the realizable case, and show a sharp contrast between the ? auditing complexity and the active label complexity for H2 and H2 . Assume a pool of size m. ? While the active learning complexity for H2 and H2 can be as large as m, the auditing complexities ? for the two classes are quite different. For H2 , the auditing complexity can be as large as m, but for H2 it is at most d. We start by showing the upper bound for auditing of H2 . Theorem 4.1 (Pool auditing upper bound for H2 ). The auditing complexity of any unlabeled pool Su of size m with respect to H2 is at most d. Proof. The method is a generalization of the approach to auditing for thresholds. Let h? ? H2 such that err(S, h? ) = 0. For each i ? [d], order the points x in S by the values of their i-th coordinates x[i]. Query the points sequentially from largest value to the smallest (breaking ties arbitrarily) and stop when the first negative label is returned, for some point xi . Set a[i] ? xi [i], and note that h? ? = ha . This procedure clearly labels all points in {x | x[i] > a[i]} positive. Return the hypothesis h queries at most d negative points and agrees with the labeling of h? . It is easy to see that a similar approach yields an auditing complexity of 2d for full axis-aligned ? that immediately rectangles. We now provide a lower bound for the auditing complexity of H2 ? implies the same lower bound for active label complexity of H2 and H2 . ? Theorem 4.2 (Pool auditing lower bound for H2 ). For any m and any d ? 2, there is a pool ? Su ? Rd+ of size m such that its auditing complexity with respect to H2 is m. Proof. The construction is a simple adaptation of a construction due to Dasgupta (2005), originally showing an active learning lower bound for the class of hyperplanes. Let the pool be composed of m distinct points on the intersection of the unit circle and the positive orthant: Su = {(cos ?j , sin ?j )} for distinct ?j ? [0, ?/2]. Any labeling which labels all the points in Su negative except any one ? , and so is the all-negative labeling. Thus, any algorithm that distinguishes point is realizable for H2 between these different labelings with probability 1 must query all the negative labels. ? ? , there is a pool ). For H2 and H2 Corollary 4.3 (Realizable active label complexity of H2 and H2 of size m such that its active label complexity is m. 4.2 The Agnostic Case We now consider H2 in the agnostic case, where ? > 0. The best known algorithm for active learning of rectangles (2, ?)-learns a very restricted class of distributions (continuous product distributions which are sufficiently balanced in all directions) with an active label complexity of ? 3 p(ln(1/?)p(ln(1/?))), where p(?) is a polynomial (Hanneke, 2007b). However, for a general O(d distribution, active label complexity cannot be significantly better than passive label complexity. This is formalized in the following theorem. Theorem 4.4 (Agnostic active label complexity of H2 ). Let ?, ? > 0, ? ? (0, 12 ). Any learning algorithm that (?, ?)-learns all distributions such that err(D, H) = ? for ? > 0 with respect to H2 has an active label complexity of ?(d/?). In contrast, the auditing complexity of H2 can be much smaller, as we show for Alg. 3 below. Theorem 4.5 (Auditing complexity of H2 ). For ?min , ?, ? ? (0, 1), there is an algorithm that (?, ?)-learns all distributions with ? ? ?min with respect to H2 with an auditing complexity of 2 O( d ln(1/??) ln2 (1/?min )). ?2 If ?min is polynomially close to the true ?, we get an auditing complexity of O(d2 ln2 (1/?)), compared to the active label complexity of ?(d/?), an exponential improvement in ?. It is an open question whether the quadratic dependence on d is necessary here. Alg. 3 implements a ?low-confidence? version of the realizable algorithm. It sequentially queries points in each direction, until enough negative points have been observed to make sure the threshold in this direction has been overstepped. To bound the number of negative labels, the algorithm iteratively refines lower bounds on the locations of the best thresholds, and an upper bound on the negative error, defined as the probability that a point from D with negative label is classified as 6 positive by a minimal-error classifier. The algorithm uses queries that mostly result in positive labels, and stops when the upper bound on the negative error cannot be refined. The idea of iteratively refining a set of possible hypotheses has been used in a long line of active learning works (Cohn et al., 1994; Balcan et al., 2006; Hanneke, 2007a; Dasgupta et al., 2008). Here we refine in a particular way that uses the structure of H2 , and allows bounding the number of negative examples we observe. We use the following notation in Alg. 3. The negative error of a hypothesis is errneg (D, h) = P(X,Y )?D [h(X) = 1 and Y = ?1]. It is easy to see that the same convergence guarantees that hold for err(?, ?) using a sample size m? (, ?, d) hold also for the negative error errneg (?, ?) (see Sabato et al., 2013). For a labeled set of points S, an  ? (0, 1) and a hypothesis class H, denote V? (S, , H) = {h ? H | err(S, h) ? err(S, H) + (2? + ? 2 ) ? max(err(S, H), )}. For a vector b ? Rd+ , define H2 [b] = {ha ? H2 | a ? b}. Algorithm 3: Auditing for H2 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: 21: Input: ?min > 0, ? ? (0, 1], access to distribution D over Rd+ ? {?1, +1}. ? ? ?/25. for t = 0 to blog2 (1/?min )c do ?t ? 2?t . Draw a sample St of size m? (?t , ?/ log2 (1/?min ), 10d) with hidden labels. for i = 1 to d do j?0 while j ? d(1 + ?)?t |St |e + 1 do If unqueried points exist, query the unqueried point with highest i?th coordinate; If query returned ?1, j ? j + 1. end while bt [i] ? the i?th coordinate of the last queried point, or 0 if all points were queried. end for Set Sbt to St , with unqueried labels set to ?1. Vt ? V? (Sbt , ?t , H2 [bt ]). ??t ? maxh?Vt errneg (Sbt , h). if ??t > ?t /4 then Skip to step 21 end if end for ? ? argmin Return h h?H2 [bt ] err(Sbt , h). Theorem 4.5 is proven in Sabato et al. (2013). . The proof idea is to show that at each round t, Vt includes any h? ? argminh?H err(D, h), and ??t is an upper bound on errneg (D, h? ). Further, at any given point minimizing the error on Sbt is equivalent to minimizing the error on the entire (unlabeled) sample. We conclude that the algorithm obtains a good approximation of the total error. Its auditing complexity is bounded since it queries a bounded number of negative points at each round. 5 Outcome-dependent Costs for a General Hypothesis Class In this section we return to the realizable pool setting and consider finite hypothesis classes H. We address general outcome-dependent costs and a general space of labels Y, so that H ? Y X . Let S ? X be an unlabeled pool, and let cost : S ? H ? R+ denote the cost of a query: For x ? S and h ? H, cost(x, h) is the cost of querying the label of x given that h is the true (unknown) hypothesis. In the auditing setting, Y = {?1, +1} and cost(x, h) = I[h(x) = ?1]. For active learning, cost ? 1. Note that under this definition of cost function, the algorithm may not know the cost of the query until it reveals the true hypothesis. Define OPTcost (S) to be the minimal cost of an algorithm that for any labeling of S which is ? such that err(S, h) ? = 0. In the active learning consistent with some h ? H produces a hypothesis h setting, where cost ? 1, it is NP-hard to obtain OPTcost (S) for general H and S. This can be 7 shown by a reduction to set-cover (Hyafil and Rivest, 1976). A simple adaptation of the reduction for the auditing complexity, which we defer to the full version of this work, shows that it is also NP-hard to obtain OPTcost (S) in the auditing setting. For active learning, and for query costs that do not depend on the true hypothesis (that is cost(x, h) ? cost(x)), Golovin and Krause (2011) showed an efficient greedy strategy that achieves a cost of O(OPTcost (S) ? ln(|H|)) for any S. This approach has also been shown to provide considerable performance gains in practical settings (Gonen et al., 2013). The greedy strategy consists of iteratively selecting a point whose label splits the set of possible hypotheses as evenly as possible, with a normalization proportional on the cost of each query. We now show that for outcome-dependent costs, another greedy strategy provides similar approximation guarantees for OPTcost (S). The algorithm is defined as follows: Suppose that so far the algorithm requested labels for x1 , . . . , xt and received the corresponding labels y1 , . . . , yt . Letting St = {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xt , yt )}, denote the current version space by V (St ) = {h ? H|S | ?(x, y) ? St , h(x) = y}. The next query selected by the algorithm is x ? argmax min x?S h?H |V (St ) \ V (St ? {(x, h(x))})| . cost(x, h) That is, the algorithm selects the query that in the worst-case over the possible hypotheses, would remove the most hypotheses from the version spaces, when normalizing by the outcome-dependent cost of the query. The algorithm terminates when |V (St )| = 1, and returns the single hypothesis in the version space. Theorem 5.1. For any cost function cost, hypothesis class H, pool S, and true hypothesis h ? H, the cost of the proposed algorithm is at most (ln(|H|S | ? 1) + 1) ? OPT. If cost is the auditing cost, the proposed algorithm corresponds to the following intuitive strategy: At every round, select a query such that, if its result is a negative label, then the number of hypotheses removed from the version space is the largest. This strategy is consistent with a simple principle based on a partial ordering of the points: For points x, x0 in the pool, define x0  x if {h ? H | h(x0 ) = ?1} ? {h ? H | h(x) = ?1}, so that if x0 has a negative label, so does x. In the auditing setting, it is always preferable to query x before querying x0 . Therefore, for any realizable auditing problem, there exists an optimal algorithm that adheres to this principle. It is thus encouraging that our greedy algorithm is also consistent with it. An O(ln(|H|S |)) approximation factor for auditing is less appealing than the same factor for active learning. By information-theoretic arguments, active label complexity is at least log2 (|H|S |) (and hence the approximation at most squares the cost), but this does not hold for auditing. Nonetheless, hardness of approximation results for set cover (Feige, 1998), in conjunction with the reduction to set cover of Hyafil and Rivest (1976) mentioned above, imply that such an approximation factor cannot be avoided for a general auditing algorithm. 6 Conclusion and Future Directions As summarized in Section 2, we show that in the auditing setting, suitable algorithms can achieve improved costs in the settings of thresholds on the line and axis parallel rectangles. There are many open questions suggested by our work. First, it is known that for some hypothesis classes, active learning cannot improve over passive learning for certain distributions (Dasgupta, 2005), and the same is true for auditing. However, exponential speedups are possible for active learning on certain classes of distributions (Balcan et al., 2006; Dasgupta et al., 2008), in particular ones with a small disagreement coefficient (Hanneke, 2007a). It is an open question whether a similar property of the distribution can guarantee an improvement with auditing over active or passive learning. This might be especially relevant to important hypothesis classes such as decision trees or halfspaces. An interesting generalization of the auditing problem is a multiclass setting with a different cost for each label. Finally, one may attempt to optimize other performance measures for auditing, as described in the introduction. These measures are different from those studied in active learning, and may lead to new algorithmic insights. 8 References M. F. Balcan, A. Beygelzimer, and J. Langford. Agnostic active learning. In Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on Machine learning (ICML), pages 65?72, 2006. P. L. Bartlett and S. Mendelson. Rademacher and Gaussian complexities: Risk bounds and structural results. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:463?482, 2002. A. Beygelzimer, S. Dasgupta, and J. Langford. Importance weighted active learning. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 49?56. ACM, 2009. J. Blocki, N. Christin, A. Dutta, and A. Sinha. Regret minimizing audits: A learning-theoretic basis for privacy protection. In Proceedings of 24th IEEE Computer Security Foundations Symposium, 2011. A. Blumer, A. Ehrenfeucht, D. Haussler, and M. K. Warmuth. Learnability and the VapnikChervonenkis dimension. Journal of the ACM, 36(4):929?965, Oct. 1989. D. Cohn, L. Atlas, and R. Ladner. Improving generalization with active learning. Machine Learning, 15:201?221, 1994. S. Dasgupta. Analysis of a greedy active learning strategy. In L. K. Saul, Y. Weiss, and L. Bottou, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 337?344. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. S. Dasgupta, D. Hsu, and C. Monteleoni. A general agnostic active learning algorithm. In J. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, and S. Roweis, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 353?360. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2008. L. Devroye and G. Lugosi. Lower bounds in pattern recognition and learning. Pattern Recognition, 28(7):1011?1018, 1995. U. Feige. A threshold of ln n for approximating set cover. Journal of the ACM (JACM), 45(4): 634?652, 1998. D. Golovin and A. Krause. Adaptive submodularity: Theory and applications in active learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 42:427?486, 2011. A. Gonen, S. Sabato, and S. Shalev-Shwartz. Efficient active learning of halfspaces: an aggressive approach. In The 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2013. S. Hanneke. A bound on the label complexity of agnostic active learning. In Proceedings of the 24th international conference on Machine learning, pages 353?360. ACM, 2007a. S. Hanneke. Teaching dimension and the complexity of active learning. In Learning Theory, pages 66?81. Springer, 2007b. S. Hanneke. Rates of convergence in active learning. The Annals of Statistics, 39(1):333?361, 2011. L. Hyafil and R. L. Rivest. Constructing optimal binary decision trees is NP-complete. Information Processing Letters, 5(1):15?17, May 1976. A. Kapoor, E. Horvitz, and S. Basu. Selective supervision: Guiding supervised learning with decision-theoretic active learning. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2007. M. Kearns. Efficient noise-tolerant learning from statistical queries. Journal of the ACM (JACM), 45(6):983?1006, 1998. S. R. Kulkarni, S. K. Mitter, and J. N. Tsitsiklis. Active learning using arbitrary binary valued queries. Machine Learning, 11(1):23?35, 1993. P. M. Long and L. Tan. PAC learning axis-aligned rectangles with respect to product distributions from multiple-instance examples. Machine Learning, 30(1):7?21, 1998. D. D. Margineantu. Active cost-sensitive learning. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2007. S. Sabato, A. D. Sarwate, and N. Srebro. Auditing: Active learning with outcome-dependent query costs. arXiv preprint arXiv:1306.2347, 2013. B. Settles, M. Craven, and L. Friedlan. Active learning with real annotation costs. In Proceedings of the NIPS Workshop on Cost-Sensitive Learning, 2008. V. N. Vapnik and A. Y. Chervonenkis. On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities. Theory of Probability and Its Applications, XVI(2):264?280, 1971. 9
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Buy-in-Bulk Active Learning Jaime Carbonell Language Technologies Institute, Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] Liu Yang Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] Abstract In many practical applications of active learning, it is more cost-effective to request labels in large batches, rather than one-at-a-time. This is because the cost of labeling a large batch of examples at once is often sublinear in the number of examples in the batch. In this work, we study the label complexity of active learning algorithms that request labels in a given number of batches, as well as the tradeoff between the total number of queries and the number of rounds allowed. We additionally study the total cost sufficient for learning, for an abstract notion of the cost of requesting the labels of a given number of examples at once. In particular, we find that for sublinear cost functions, it is often desirable to request labels in large batches (i.e., buying in bulk); although this may increase the total number of labels requested, it reduces the total cost required for learning. 1 Introduction In many practical applications of active learning, the cost to acquire a large batch of labels at once is significantly less than the cost of the same number of sequential rounds of individual label requests. This is true for both practical reasons (overhead time for start-up, reserving equipment in discrete time-blocks, multiple labelers working in parallel, etc.) and for computational reasons (e.g., time to update the learner?s hypothesis and select the next examples may be large). Consider making one vs multiple hematological diagnostic tests on an out-patient. There are fixed up-front costs: bringing the patient in for testing, drawing and storing the blood, entring the information in the hospital record system, etc. And there are variable costs, per specific test. Consider a microarray assay for gene expression data. There is a fixed cost in setting up and running the microarray, but virtually no incremental cost as to the number of samples, just a constraint on the max allowed. Either of the above conditions are often the case in scientific experiments (e.g., [1]), As a different example, consider calling a focused group of experts to address questions w.r.t new product design or introduction. There is a fixed cost in forming the group (determine membership, contract, travel, etc.), and a incremental per-question cost. The common abstraction in such real-world versions of ?oracles? is that learning can buy-in-bulk to advantage because oracles charge either per batch (answering a batch of questions for the same cost as answering a single question up to a batch maximum), or the cost per batch is axp + b, where b is the set-up cost, x is the number of queries, and p = 1 or p < 1 (for the case where practice yields efficiency). Often we have other tradeoffs, such as delay vs testing cost. For instance in a medical diagnosis case, the most cost-effective way to minimize diagnostic tests is purely sequential active learning, where each test may rule out a set of hypotheses (diagnoses) and informs the next test to perform. But a patient suffering from a serious disease may worsen while sequential tests are being conducted. Hence batch testing makes sense if the batch can be tested in parallel. In general one can convert delay into a second cost factor and optimize for batch size that minimizes a combination of total delay and the sum of the costs for the individual tests. Parallelizing means more tests would be needed, since we lack the benefit of earlier tests to rule out future ones. In order to perform this 1 batch-size optimization we also need to estimate the number of redundant tests incurred by turning a sequence into a shorter sequence of batches. For the reasons cited above, it can be very useful in practice to generalize active learning to activebatch learning, with buy-in-bulk discounts. This paper developes a theoretical framework exploring the bounds and sample compelxity of active buy-in-bulk machine learning, and analyzing the tradeoff that can be achieved between the number of batches and the total number of queries required for accurate learning. In another example, if we have many labelers (virtually unlimited) operating in parallel, but must pay for each query, and the amount of time to get back the answer to each query is considered independent with some distribution, it may often be the case that the expected amount of time needed to get back the answers to m queries is sublinear in m, so that if the ?cost? is a function of both the payment amounts and the time, it might sometimes be less costly to submit multiple queries to be labeled in parallel. In scenarios such as those mentioned above, a batch mode active learning strategy is desirable, rather than a method that selects instances to be labeled one-at-a-time. There have recently been several attempts to construct heuristic approaches to the batch mode active learning problem (e.g., [2]). However, theoretical analysis has been largely lacking. In contrast, there has recently been significant progress in understanding the advantages of fully-sequential active learning (e.g., [3, 4, 5, 6, 7]). In the present work, we are interested in extending the techniques used for the fully-sequential active learning model, studying natural analogues of them for the batchmodel active learning model. Formally, we are interested in two quantities: the sample complexity and the total cost. The sample complexity refers to the number of label requests used by the algorithm. We expect batch-mode active learning methods to use more label requests than their fully-sequential cousins. On the other hand, if the cost to obtain a batch of labels is sublinear in the size of the batch, then we may sometimes expect the total cost used by a batch-mode learning method to be significantly less than the analogous fully-sequential algorithms, which request labels individually. 2 Definitions and Notation As in the usual statistical learning problem, there is a standard Borel space X , called the instance space, and a set C of measurable classifiers h : X ? {?1, +1}, called the concept space. Throughout, we suppose that the VC dimension of C, denoted d below, is finite. In the learning problem, there is an unobservable distribution DXY over X ? {?1, +1}. Based on this quantity, we let Z = {(Xt , Yt )}? t=1 denote an infinite sequence of independent DXY -distributed random variables. We also denote by Zt = {(X1 , Y1 ), (X2 , Y2 ), . . . , (Xt , Yt )} the first t such labeled examples. Additionally denote by DX the marginal distribution of DXY over X . For a classifier h : X ? {?1, +1}, denote er(h) = P(X,Y )?DXY (h(X) 6= Y ), the error rate of h. P 1 Additionally, for m ? N and Q ? (X ? {?1, +1})m , let er(h; Q) = |Q| (x,y)?Q I[h(x) 6= y], the empirical error rate of h. In the special case that Q = Zm , abbreviate erm (h) = er(h; Q). For r > 0, define B(h, r) = {g ? C : DX (x : h(x) 6= g(x)) ? r}. For any H ? C, define DIS(H) = {x ? X : ?h, g ? H s.t. h(x) 6= g(x)}. We also denote by ?(x) = P (Y = +1|X = x), where (X, Y ) ? DXY , and let h? (x) = sign(?(x) ? 1/2) denote the Bayes optimal classifier. In the active learning protocol, the algorithm has direct access to the Xt sequence, but must request to observe each label Yt , sequentially. The algorithm asks up to a specified number of label requests n (the budget), and then halts and returns a classifier. We are particularly interested in determining, for a given algorithm, how large this number of label requests needs to be in order to guarantee small error rate with high probability, a value known as the label complexity. In the present work, we are also interested in the cost expended by the algorithm. Specifically, in this context, there is a cost function c : N ? (0, ?), and to request the labels {Yi1 , Yi2 , . . . , Yim } of m examples {Xi1 , Xi2 , . . . , Xim } at once requires the algorithm to pay c(m); we are then interested in the sum of these costs, over all batches of label requests made by the algorithm. Depending on the form of the cost function, minimizing the cost of learning may actually require the algorithm to request labels in batches, which we expect would actually increase the total number of label requests. 2 To help quantify the label complexity and cost complexity, we make use of the following definition, due to [6, 7]. Definition 2.1. [6, 7] Define the disagreement coefficient of h? as ?(?) = sup r>? 3 DX (DIS(B(h? , r))) . r Buy-in-Bulk Active Learning in the Realizable Case: k-batch CAL We begin our anlaysis with the simplest case: namely, the realizable case, with a fixed prespecified number of batches. We are then interested in quantifying the label complexity for such a scenario. Formally, in this section we suppose h? ? C and er(h? ) = 0. This is refered to as the realizable case. We first review a well-known method for active learning in the realizable case, refered to as CAL after its discoverers Cohn, Atlas, and Ladner [8]. Algorithm: CAL(n) 1. t ? 0, m ? 0, Q ? ? 2. While t < n 3. m ? m + 1 4. If max min er(h; Q ? {(Xm , y)}) = 0 y?{?1,+1} h?C 5. Request Ym , let Q ? Q ? {(Xm , Ym )}, t ? t + 1 ? = argmin 6. Return h h?C er(h; Q) The label complexity of CAL is known to be O (?(?)(d log(?(?)) + log(log(1/?)/?)) log(1/?)) [7]. That is, some n of this size suffices to guarantee that, with probability 1 ? ?, the returned classifier ? has er(h) ? ? ?. h One particularly simple way to modify this algorithm to make it batch-based is to simply divide up the budget into equal batch sizes. This yields the following method, which we refer to as k-batch CAL, where k ? {1, . . . , n}. Algorithm: k-batch CAL(n) 1. Let Q ? {}, b ? 2, V ? C 2. For m = 1, 2, . . . 3. If Xm ? DIS(V ) 4. Q ? Q ? {Xm } 5. If |Q| = ?n/k? 6. Request the labels of examples in Q 7. Let L be the corresponding labeled examples 8. V ? {h ? V : er(h; L) = 0} 9. b ? b + 1 and Q ? ? ??V 10. If b > k, Return any h We expect the label complexity of k-batch CAL to somehow interpolate between passive learning (at k = 1) and the label complexity of CAL (at k = n). Indeed, the following theorem bounds the label complexity of k-batch CAL by a function that exhibits this interpolation behavior with respect to the known upper bounds for these two cases. Theorem 3.1. In the realizable case, for some   ?(?, ?) = O k??1/k ?(?)1?1/k (d log(1/?) + log(1/?)) , for any n ? ?(?, ?), with probability at least 1 ? ?, running k-batch CAL with budget n produces a ? with er(h) ? ? ?. classifier h Proof. Let M = ?n/k?. Define V0 = C and i0M = 0. Generally, for b ? 1, let ib1 , ib2 , . . . , ibM denote the indices i of the first M points Xi ? DIS(Vb?1 ) for which i > i(b?1)M , and let Vb = {h ? 3 Vb?1 : ?j ? M, h(Xibj ) = h? (Xibj )}. These correspond to the version space at the conclusion of batch b in the k-batch CAL algorithm. Note that Xib1 , . . . , XibM are conditionally iid given Vb?1 , with distribution of X given X ? DIS(Vb?1 ). Thus, the PAC bound of [9] implies that, for some constant c ? (0, ?), with probability ? 1 ? ?/k,   ? d log(M/d) + log(k/?) P (DIS(Vb?1 )) . Vb ? B h , c M By a union bound, the above holds for all b ? k with probability ? 1 ? ?; suppose this is the case. Since P (DIS(Vb?1 )) ? ?(?) max{?, maxh?Vb?1 er(h) }, and any b with maxh?Vb?1 er(h) ? ? would also have maxh?Vb er(h) ? ?, we have   d log(M/d) + log(k/?) max er(h) ? max ?, c ?(?) max er(h)) . h?Vb h?Vb?1 M   Noting that P (DIS(V0 )) ? 1 implies V1 ? B h? , c d log(M/d)+log(k/?) , by induction we have M ) (  k d log(M/d) + log(k/?) k?1 ?(?) . max er(h) ? max ?, c h?Vk M k?1 k For some constant c? > 0, any M ? c? ?(?) ?1/k 1 ?  + log(k/?) makes the right hand side ? ?.  k?1  1 ? ?(?) k Since M = ?n/k?, it suffices to have n ? k 1 + c ?1/k d log ? + log(k/?) . d log  Theorem 3.1 has the property that, when the disagreement coefficient is small, the stated bound on the total number of label requests sufficient for learning is a decreasing function of k. This makes sense, since ?(?) small would imply that fully-sequential active learning is much better than passive learning. Small values of k correspond to more passive-like behavior, while larger values of k take fuller advantage of the sequential nature of active learning. In particular, when k = 1, we recover a well-known label complexity bound for passive learning by empirical risk minimization [10]. In contrast, when k = log(1/?), the ??1/k factor is e (constant), and the rest of the bound is at most O(?(?)(d log(1/?) + log(1/?)) log(1/?)), which is (up to a log factor) a well-known bound on the label complexity of CAL for active learning [7] (a slight refinement of the proof would in fact recover the exact bound of [7] for this case); for k larger than log(1/?), the label complexity can only improve; for instance, consider that upon reaching a given data point Xm in the data stream, if V is the version space in k-batch CAL (for some k), and V ? is the version space in 2k-batch CAL, then we have V ? ? V (supposing n is a multiple of 2k), so that Xm ? DIS(V ? ) only if Xm ? DIS(V ). Note that even k = 2 can sometimes provide significant ? reductions in label complexity over passive learning: for instance, by a factor proportional to 1/ ? in the case that ?(?) is bounded by a finite constant. 4 Batch Mode Active Learning with Tsybakov noise The above analysis was for the realizable case. While this provides a particularly clean and simple analysis, it is not sufficiently broad to cover many realistic learning applications. To move beyond the realizable case, we need to allow the labels to be noisy, so that er(h? ) > 0. One popular noise model in the statistical learning theory literature is Tsybakov noise, which is defined as follows. Definition 4.1. [11] The distribution DXY satisfies Tsybakov noise if h? ? C, and for some c > 0 and ? ? [0, 1], ? ?t > 0, P(|?(x) ? 1/2| < t) < c1 t 1?? , equivalently, ?h, P (h(x) 6= h? (x)) ? c2 (er(h) ? er(h? ))? , where c1 and c2 are constants. Supposing DXY satisfies Tsybakov noise, we define a quantity  1  d log(m/d) + log(km/?) 2?? . Em = c3 m 4 based on a standard generalization bound for passive learning [12]. Specifically, [12] have shown that, for any V ? C, with probability at least 1 ? ?/(4km2 ), sup |(er(h) ? er(g)) ? (erm (h) ? erm (g))| < Em . (1) h,g?V Consider the following modification of k-batch CAL, designed to be robust to Tsybakov noise. We refer to this method as k-batch Robust CAL, where k ? {1, . . . , n}. Algorithm: k-batch Robust CAL(n) 1. Let Q ? {}, b ? 1, V ? C, m1 ? 0 2. For m = 1, 2, . . . 3. If Xm ? DIS(V ) 4. Q ? Q ? {Xm } 5. If |Q| = ?n/k? 6. Request the labels of examples in Q 7. Let L be the corresponding labeled examples ?n/k? 8. V ? {h ? V : (er(h; L) ? ming?V er(g; L)) m?m ? Em?mb } b 9. b ? b + 1 and Q ? ? 10. mb ? m ??V 11. If b > k, Return any h Pk?1 ? Theorem 4.2. Under the Tsybakov noise condition, letting ? = 2?? , and ?? = i=0 ? i , for some k ! ?   2??      1+???? ? ? ? k?1 1 ?? d kd 1? ? ? ?(?, ?) = O k d log , (c2 ?(c2 ?? )) + log ? ? ?? for any n ? ?(?, ?), with probability at least 1 ? ?, running k-batch Robust CAL with budget n ? with er(h) ? ? er(h? ) ? ?. produces a classifier h Proof. Let M = ?n/k?. Define i0M = 0 and V0 = C. Generally, for b ? 1, let ib1 , ib2 , . . . , ibM denote the indices i of the first M points Xi ? DIS(Vb?1 ) for which i > i(b?1)M , and let Qb = {(Xib1 , Yib1 ), . . . , (XibM , YibM )} and Vb = {h ? Vb?1 : (er(h; Qb ) ? ming?Vb?1 er(g; Qb )) ibM ?iM(b?1)M ? EibM ?i(b?1)M }. These correspond to the set V at the conclusion of batch b in the k-batch Robust CAL algorithm. For b ? {1, . . . , k}, (1) (applied under the conditional distribution given Vb?1 , combined with the law of total probability) implies that ?m > 0, letting Zb,m = {(Xi(b?1)M +1 , Yi(b?1)M +1 ), ..., (Xi(b?1)M +m , Yi(b?1)M +m )}, with probability at least 1??/(4km2 ), if h? ? Vb?1 , then er(h? ; Zb,m ) ? ming?Vb?1 er(g; Zb,m ) < Em , and every h ? Vb?1 with er(h; Zb,m ) ? ming?Vb?1 er(g; Zb,m ) ? Em has er(h) ? er(h? ) < 2Em . By a union bound, this holds for all m ? N, with probability at least 1 ? ?/(2k). In particular, this means it holds for m = ibM ? i(b?1)M . But note that for this value of m, any h, g ? Vb?1 have er(h; Zb,m ) ? er(g; Zb,m ) = (er(h; Qb ) ? er(g; Qb )) M m (since for every (x, y) ? Zb,m \ Qb , either both h and g make a mistake, or neither do). Thus if h? ? Vb?1 , we have h? ? Vb as well, and furthermore suph?Vb er(h) ? er(h? ) < 2EibM ?i(b?1)M . By induction (over b) and a union bound, these are satisfied for all b ? {1, . . . , k} with probability at least 1 ? ?/2. For the remainder of the proof, we suppose this 1 ? ?/2 probability event occurs. Next, we focus on lower bounding ibM ? i(b?1)M , again by induction. As a base case, we clearly have i1M ? i0M ? M . Now suppose some b ? {2, . . . , k} has i(b?1)M ? i(b?2)M ? Tb?1 for some Tb?1 . Then, by the above, we have suph?Vb?1 er(h) ? er(h? ) < 2ETb?1 . By the Tsy?  bakov noise condition, this implies Vb?1 ? B h? , c2 2ETb?1 , so that if suph?Vb?1 er(h) ?  ? er(h? ) > ?, P (DIS(Vb?1 )) ? ?(c2 ?? )c2 2ETb?1 . Now note that the conditional distribution of ibM ? i(b?1)M given Vb?1 is a negative binomial random variable with parameters M and 1 ? P (DIS(Vb?1 )) (that is, a sum of M Geometric(P (DIS(Vb?1 ))) random variables). A Chernoff bound (applied under the conditional distribution given Vb?1 ) implies that P (ibM ? i(b?1)M < 5 M/(2P (DIS(Vb?1 )))|Vb?1 ) < e?M/6 . Thus, for Vb?1 as above, with probability at least 1?e?M/6 , ibM ?i(b?1)M ? 2?(c2 ?? )cM )? . Thus, we can define Tb as in the right hand side, which thereby 2 (2ET b?1 defines a recurrence. By induction, with probability at least 1 ? ke?M/6 > 1 ? ?/2, k?1  k?1  ??? ?(??? ? ? ) 1 1 ? ikM ? i(k?1)M ? M ? . 4c2 ?(c2 ?? ) 2(d log(M ) + log(kM/?)) By a union bound, with probability 1??, this occurs simultaneously with the above suph?Vk er(h)? er(h? ) < 2EikM ?i(k?1)M bound. Combining these two results yields 1 ! 2?? ! k?1 ? ? ??? k?1 ) ? 1+?(??? (c ?(c ? )) 2 2 ? 2?? (d log(M ) + log(kM/?)) . sup er(h) ? er(h ) = O M ?? h?Vk Setting this to ? and solving for n, we find that it suffices to have k ?   1+????   2??    ? ? ? k?1 kd 1 ?? d ? 1? ?? + log d log M ? c4 (c2 ?(c2 ? )) , ? ? ?? for some constant c4 ? [1, ?), which then implies the stated result. Note: the threshold Em in k-batch Robust CAL has a direct dependence on the parameters of the Tsybakov noise condition. We have expressed the algorithm in this way only to simplify the presentation. In practice, such information is not often available. However, we can replace Em with a ? m , as in [7], which also satisfies (1), and satisdata-dependent local Rademacher complexity bound E ? ? fies (with high probability) Em ? c Em , for some constant c? ? [1, ?) (see [13]). This modification would therefore provide essentially the same guarantee stated above (up to constant factors), without having any direct dependence on the noise parameters, and the analysis gets only slightly more ? m estimators. involved to account for the confidences in the concentration inequalities for these E A similar result can also be obtained for batch-based variants of other noise-robust disagreementbased active learning algorithms from the literature (e.g., a variant of A2 [5] that uses updates based ? m estimators, in place of the traditional upper-bound/lower-bound on quantities related to these E construction, would also suffice). When k = 1, Theorem 4.2 matches the best results for passive learning (up to log factors), which are known to be minimax optimal (again, up to log factors). If we let k become large (while still considered as a constant), our result converges to the known results for one-at-a-time active learning with RobustCAL (again, up to log factors) [7, 14]. Although those results are not always minimax optimal, they do represent the state-of-the-art in the general analysis of active learning, and they are really the best we could hope for from basing our algorithm on RobustCAL. 5 Buy-in-Bulk Solutions to Cost-Adaptive Active Learning The above sections discussed scenarios in which we have a fixed number k of batches, and we simply bounded the label complexity achievable within that constraint by considering a variant of CAL that uses k equal-sized batches. In this section, we take a slightly different approach to the problem, by going back to one of the motivations for using batch-based active learning in the first place: namely, sublinear costs for answering batches of queries at a time. If the cost of answering m queries at once is sublinear in m, then batch-based algorithms arise naturally from the problem of optimizing the total cost required for learning. Formally, in this section, we suppose we are given a cost function c : (0, ?) ? (0, ?), which is nondecreasing, satisfies c(?x) ? ?c(x) (for x, ? ? [1, ?)) , and further satisfies the condition that ? for every q ? N, ?q ? ? N such that 2c(q) ? c(q ? ) ? 4c(q), which typically amounts to a kind of smoothness assumption. For instance, c(q) = q would satisfy these conditions (as would many other smooth increasing concave functions); the latter assumption can be generalized to allow other constants, though we only study this case below for simplicity. To understand the total cost required for learning in this model, we consider the following costadaptive modification of the CAL algorithm. 6 Algorithm: Cost-Adaptive CAL(C) 1. Q ? ?, R ? DIS(C), V ? C, t ? 0 2. Repeat 3. q ? 1 4. Do until P (DIS(V )) ? P (R)/2 5. Let q ? > q be minimal such that c(q ? ? q) ? 2c(q) ??V 6. If c(q ? ? q) + t > C, Return any h 7. Request the labels of the next q ? ? q examples in DIS(V ) 8. Update V by removing those classifiers inconsistent with these labels 9. Let t ? t + c(q ? ? q) 10. q ? q? 11. R ? DIS(V ) Note that the total cost expended by this method never exceeds the budget argument C. We have the following result on how large of a budget C is sufficient for this method to succeed. Theorem 5.1. In the realizable case, for some     ?(?, ?) = O c ?(?) (d log(?(?)) + log(log(1/?)/?)) log(1/?) , ? for any C ? ?(?, ?), with probability at least 1 ? ?, Cost-Adaptive CAL(C) returns a classifier h ? with er(h) ? ?. Proof. Supposing an unlimited budget (C = ?), let us determine how much cost the algorithm incurs prior to having suph?V er(h) ? ?; this cost would then be a sufficient size for C to guarantee this occurs. First, note that h? ? V is maintained as an invariant throughout the algorithm. Also, note that if q is ever at least as large as O(?(?)(d log(?(?)) + log(1/? ? ))), then as in the analysis for CAL [7], we can conclude (via the PAC bound of [9]) that with probability at least 1 ? ? ? , sup P (h(X) 6= h? (X)|X ? R) ? 1/(2?(?)), h?V so that sup er(h) = sup P (h(X) 6= h? (X)|X ? R)P (R) ? P (R)/(2?(?)). h?V h?V ? We know R = DIS(V ) for the set V ? which was the value of the variable V at the time this R was obtained. Supposing suph?V ? er(h) > ?, we know (by the definition of ?(?)) that     ? P (R) ? P DIS B h , sup er(h) ? ?(?) sup er(h). h?V ? h?V ? Therefore, 1 sup er(h). 2 h?V ? h?V In particular, this implies the condition in Step 4 will be satisfied if this happens while suph?V er(h) > ?. But this condition can be satisfied at most ?log2 (1/?)? times while suph?V er(h) > ? (since suph?V er(h) ? P (DIS(V ))). So with probability at least 1 ? ? ? ?log2 (1/?)?, as long as suph?V er(h) > ?, we always have c(q) ? 4c(O(?(?)(d log(?(?)) + log(1/? ? )))) ? O(c(?(?)(d log(?(?)) + log(1/? ? )))). Letting ? ? = ?/?log2 (1/?)?, this is 1 ? ?. So for each round of the outer loop while suph?V er(h) > ?, by summing the geometric series of cost values c(q ? ? q) in the inner loop, we find the total cost incurred is at most O(c(?(?)(d log(?(?)) + log(log(1/?)/?)))). Again, there are at most ?log2 (1/?)? rounds of the outer loop while suph?V er(h) > ?, so that the total cost incurred before we have suph?V er(h) ? ? is at most O(c(?(?)(d log(?(?)) + log(log(1/?)/?))) log(1/?)). sup er(h) ? Comparing this result to the known label complexity of CAL, which is (from [7]) O (?(?) (d log(?(?)) + log(log(1/?)/?)) log(1/?)) , we see that the major factor, namely the O (?(?) (d log(?(?)) + log(log(1/?)/?))) factor, is now inside the argument to the cost function c(?). In particular, when this cost function is sublinear, we 7 expect this bound to be significantly smaller than the cost required by the original fully-sequential CAL algorithm, which uses batches of size 1, so that there is a significant advantage to using this batch-mode active learning algorithm. Again, this result is formulated for the realizable case for simplicity, but can easily be extended to the Tsybakov noise model as in the previous section. In particular, by reasoning quite similar to ? ? that above, a cost-adaptive variant of the Robust CAL algorithm of [14] achieves error rate er(h) ? er(h ) ? ? with probability at least 1 ? ? using a total cost     O c ?(c2 ?? )c22 ?2??2 dpolylog (1/(??)) log (1/?) . We omit the technical details for brevity. However, the idea is similar to that above, except that the update to the set V is now as in k-batch Robust CAL (with an appropriate modification to the ?-related logarithmic factor in Em ), rather than simply those classifiers making no mistakes. The proof then follows analogous to that of Theorem 5.1, the only major change being that now we bound the number of unlabeled examples processed in the inner loop before suph?V P (h(X) 6= h? (X)) ? P (R)/(2?); letting V ? be the previous version space (the one for which R = DIS(V ? )), we have P (R) ? ?c2 (suph?V ? er(h) ? er(h? ))? , so that it suffices to have suph?V P (h(X) 6= h? (X)) ? (c2 /2)(suph?V ? er(h) ? er(h? ))? , and for this it suffices to have suph?V er(h) ? er(h? ) ? 2?1/? suph?V ? er(h) ? er(h? ); by inverting Em , we find that it suffices to  ? (2?1/? suph?V ? er(h) ? er(h? ))??2 d . Since the number of label rehave a number of samples O ? ? quests among m samples in the inner loop is roughly O(mP (R)) ? O(m?c 2 (suph?V ? er(h) ? ? ? ? er(h )) ), the batch size needed to make suph?V P (h(X) 6= h (X)) ? P (R)/(2?) is at  ? ?c2 22/? (suph?V ? er(h) ? er(h? ))2??2 d . When suph?V ? er(h) ? er(h? ) > ?, this is most O  ? ?c2 22/? ?2??2 d . If suph?V P (h(X) 6= h? (X)) ? P (R)/(2?) is ever satisfied, then by the O same reasoning as above, the update condition in Step 4 would be satisfied. Again, this update can be satisfied at most log(1/?) times before achieving suph?V er(h) ? er(h? ) ? ?. 6 Conclusions We have seen that the analysis of active learning can be adapted to the setting in which labels are requested in batches. We studied this in two related models of learning. In the first case, we supposed the number k of batches is specified, and we analyzed the number of label requests used by an algorithm that requested labels in k equal-sized batches. As a function of k, this label complexity became closer to that of the analogous results for fully-sequential active learning for larger values of k, and closer to the label complexity of passive learning for smaller values of k, as one would expect. Our second model was based on a notion of the cost to request the labels of a batch of a given size. We studied an active learning algorithm designed for this setting, and found that the total cost used by this algorithm may often be significantly smaller than that used by the analogous fully-sequential active learning methods, particularly when the cost function is sublinear. There are many active learning algorithms in the literature that can be described (or analyzed) in terms of batches of label requests. For instance, this is the case for the margin-based active learning strategy explored by [15]. Here we have only studied variants of CAL (and its noise-robust generalization). However, one could also apply this style of analysis to other methods, to investigate analogous questions of how the label complexities of such methods degrade as the batch sizes increase, or how such methods might be modified to account for a sublinear cost function, and what results one might obtain on the total cost of learning with these modified methods. This could potentially be a fruitful future direction for the study of batch mode active learning. The tradeoff between the total number of queries and the number of rounds examined in this paper is natural to study. Similar tradeoffs have been studied in other contexts. In any two-party communication task, there are three measures of complexity that are typically used: communication complexity (the total number of bits exchanged), round complexity (the number of rounds of communication), and time complexity. 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Active Learning for Probabilistic Hypotheses Using the Maximum Gibbs Error Criterion Nguyen Viet Cuong Wee Sun Lee Nan Ye Department of Computer Science National University of Singapore {nvcuong,leews,yenan}@comp.nus.edu.sg Kian Ming A. Chai Hai Leong Chieu DSO National Laboratories, Singapore {ckianmin,chaileon}@dso.org.sg Abstract We introduce a new objective function for pool-based Bayesian active learning with probabilistic hypotheses. This objective function, called the policy Gibbs error, is the expected error rate of a random classifier drawn from the prior distribution on the examples adaptively selected by the active learning policy. Exact maximization of the policy Gibbs error is hard, so we propose a greedy strategy that maximizes the Gibbs error at each iteration, where the Gibbs error on an instance is the expected error of a random classifier selected from the posterior label distribution on that instance. We apply this maximum Gibbs error criterion to three active learning scenarios: non-adaptive, adaptive, and batch active learning. In each scenario, we prove that the criterion achieves near-maximal policy Gibbs error when constrained to a fixed budget. For practical implementations, we provide approximations to the maximum Gibbs error criterion for Bayesian conditional random fields and transductive Naive Bayes. Our experimental results on a named entity recognition task and a text classification task show that the maximum Gibbs error criterion is an effective active learning criterion for noisy models. 1 Introduction In pool-based active learning [1], we select training data from a finite set (called a pool) of unlabeled examples and aim to obtain good performance on the set by asking for as few labels as possible. If a large enough pool is sampled from the true distribution, good performance of a classifier on the pool implies good generalization performance of the classifier. Previous theoretical works on Bayesian active learning mainly deal with the noiseless case, which assumes a prior distribution on a collection of deterministic mappings from observations to labels [2, 3]. A fixed deterministic mapping is then drawn from the prior, and it is used to label the examples. In this paper, probabilistic hypotheses, rather than deterministic ones, are used to label the examples. We formulate the objective as a maximum coverage objective with a fixed budget: with a budget of k queries, we aim to select k examples such that the policy Gibbs error is maximal. The policy Gibbs error of a policy is the expected error rate of a Gibbs classifier1 on the set adaptively selected by the policy. The policy Gibbs error is a lower bound of the policy entropy, a generalization of the Shannon entropy to general (both adaptive and non-adaptive) policies. For non-adaptive policies, 1 A Gibbs classifier samples a hypothesis from the prior for labeling. 1 x1 y1 = 1 y1 = 2 x1 y1 = 1 ??? x2 y2 = 1 y2 = 2 x4 y1 = 2 x2 ??? y2 = 1 y4 = 1 y2 = 2 x3 ... x4 ... x4 x3 y4 = 2 x2 ... Figure 1: An example of a non-adaptive policy tree (left) and an adaptive policy tree (right). the policy Gibbs error reduces to the Gibbs error for sets, which is a special case of a measure of uncertainty called the Tsallis entropy [4]. By maximizing policy Gibbs error, we hope to maximize the policy entropy, whose maximality implies the minimality of the posterior label entropy of the remaining unlabeled examples in the pool. Besides, by maximizing policy Gibbs error, we also aim to obtain a small expected error of a posterior Gibbs classifier (which samples a hypothesis from the posterior instead of the prior for labeling). Small expected error of the posterior Gibbs classifier is desirable as it upper bounds the Bayes error but is at most twice of it. Maximizing policy Gibbs error is hard, and we propose a greedy criterion, the maximum Gibbs error criterion (maxGEC), to solve it. With this criterion, the next query is made on the candidate (which may be one or several examples) that has maximum Gibbs error, the probability that a randomly sampled labeling does not match the actual labeling. We investigate this criterion in three settings: the non-adaptive setting, the adaptive setting and batch setting (also called batch mode setting) [5]. In the non-adaptive setting, the set of examples is not labeled until all examples in the set have all been selected. In the adaptive setting, the examples are labeled as soon as they are selected, and the new information is used to select the next example. In the batch setting, we select a batch of examples, query their labels and proceed to select the next batch taking into account the labels. In all these settings, we prove that maxGEC is near-optimal compared to the best policy that has maximal policy Gibbs error in the setting. We examine how to compute the maxGEC criterion, particularly for large structured probabilistic models such as the conditional random fields [6]. When inference in the conditional random field can be done efficiently, we show how to compute an approximation to the Gibbs error by sampling and efficient inference. We provide an approximation for maxGEC in the non-adaptive and batch settings with Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes model. Finally, we conduct pool-based active learning experiments using maxGEC for a named entity recognition task with conditional random fields and a text classification task with Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes. The results show good performance of maxGEC in terms of the area under the curve (AUC). 1 2 Preliminaries Let X be a set of examples, Y be a fixed finite set of labels, and H be a set of probabilistic hypotheses. We assume H is finite, but our results extend readily to general H. For any probabilistic hypothesis h ? H, its application to an example x ? X is a categorical random variable with support Y, and we write P[h(x) = y|h] for the probability that h(x) has value y ? Y. We extend the notation to any sequence S of examples from X and write P[h(S) = y|h] for the probability that h(S) has a labeling y ? Y |S| , where Y |S| is the set of all labelings of S. We operate within the Bayesian setting and assume a prior probability p0 [h] on H. We use pD [h] to denote the posterior p0 [h|D] after observing a set D of labeled examples from X ? Y. A pool-based active learning algorithm is a policy for choosing training examples from a pool X ? X . At the beginning, a fixed labeling y? of X is given by a hypothesis h drawn from the prior p0 [h] and is hidden from the learner. Equivalently, y? can be drawn from the prior label distribution p0 [y? ; X]. For any distribution p[h], we use p[y; S] to denote the probability that examples in P S are assigned the labeling y by a hypothesis drawn randomly from p[h]. Formally, p[y; S] def = h?H p[h] P[h(S) = y|h]. When S is a singleton {x}, we write p[y; x] for p[{y}; {x}]. 2 During the learning process, each time the learner selects an unlabeled example, its label will be revealed to the learner. A policy for choosing training examples is a mapping from a set of labeled examples to an unlabeled example to be queried. This can be represented by a policy tree, where a node represents the next example to be queried, and each edge from the node corresponds to a possible label. We use policy and policy tree as synonyms. Figure 1 illustrates two policy trees with their top three levels: in the non-adaptive setting, the policy ignores the labels of the previously selected examples, so all examples at the same depth of the policy tree are the same; in the adaptive setting, the policy takes into account the observed labels when choosing the next example. A full policy tree for a pool X is a policy tree of height |X|. A partial policy tree is a subtree of a full policy tree with the same root. The class of policies of height k will be denoted by ?k . Our query criterion gives a method to build a full policy tree one level at a time. The main building block is the probability distribution p?0 [?] over all possible paths from the root to the leaves for any (full or partial) policy tree ?. This distribution over paths is induced from the uncertainty in the fixed labeling y? for X: since y? is drawn randomly from p0 [y? ; X], the path ? followed from the root to a leaf of the policy tree during the execution of ? is also a random variable. If x? (resp. y? ) is the sequence of examples (resp. labels) along path ?, then the probability of ? is p?0 [?] def = p0 [y? ; x? ]. 3 Maximum Gibbs Error Criterion for Active Learning A commonly used objective for active learning in the non-adaptive setting is to choose k training examples such that their Shannon entropy is maximal, as this reduces uncertainty in the later stage. We first give a generalization of the concept of Shannon entropy to general (both adaptive and nonadaptive) policies. Formally, the policy entropy of a policy ? is ? H(?) def = E??p?0 [ ? ln p0 [?] ]. From this definition, policy entropy is the Shannon entropy of the paths in the policy. The policy entropy reduces to the Shannon entropy on a set of examples when the policy is non-adaptive. The following result gives a formal statement that maximizing policy entropy minimizes the uncertainty on the label of the remaining unlabeled examples in the pool. Suppose a path ? has been observed, the labels of the remaining examples in X \ x? follow the distribution p? [ ? ; X \ x? ], where p? is the posterior obtained after observing (x? , y? ). The entropy of this distribution will be denoted by G(?) and will P be called the posterior label entropy of the remaining examples given ?. Formally, G(?) = ? y p? [y; X \ x? ] ln p? [y; X \ x? ], where the summation is over all possible labelings y of X \ x? . The posterior label entropy of a policy ? is defined as G(?) = E??p?0 G(?). Theorem 1. For any k ? 1, if a policy ? in ?k maximizes H(?), then ? minimizes the posterior label entropy G(?). Proof. It can be easily verified that H(?) + G(?) is the Shannon entropy of the label distribution p0 [ ? ; X], which is a constant (detailed proof is in the supplementary). Thus, the theorem follows. The usual maximum Shannon entropy criterion, which selects the next example x maximizing Ey?pD [y;x] [? ln pD [y; x]] where D is the previously observed labeled examples, can be thought of as a greedy heuristic for building a policy ? maximizing H(?). However, it is still unknown whether this greedy criterion has any theoretical guarantee, except for the non-adaptive case. In this paper, we introduce a new objective for active learning: the policy Gibbs error. This new objective is a lower bound of the policy entropy and there are near-optimal greedy algorithms to optimize it. Intuitively, the policy Gibbs error of a policy ? is the expected probability for a Gibbs classifier to make an error on the set adaptively selected by ?. Formally, we define the policy Gibbs error of a policy ? as ? V (?) def (1) = E??p?0 [ 1 ? p0 [?] ], In the above equation, 1 ? p?0 [?] is the probability that a Gibbs classifier makes an error on the selected set along the path ?. Theorem 2 below, which is straightforward from the inequality x ? 1 + ln x, states that the policy Gibbs error is a lower bound of the policy entropy. Theorem 2. For any (full or partial) policy ?, we have V (?) ? H(?). 3 Given a budget of k queries, our proposed objective is to find ? ? = arg max???k V (?), the height k policy with maximum policy Gibbs error. By maximizing V (?), we hope to maximize the policy entropy H(?), and thus minimize the uncertainty in the remaining examples. Furthermore, we also hope to obtain a small expected error of a posterior Gibbs classifier, which upper bounds the Bayes error but is at most twice of it. Using this objective, we propose greedy algorithms for active learning that are provably near-optimal for probabilistic hypotheses. We will consider the non-adaptive, adaptive and batch settings. 3.1 The Non-adaptive Setting In the non-adaptive setting, the policy ? ignores the observed labels: it never updates the posterior. This is equivalent to selecting a set of examples before any labeling is done. In this setting, the examples selected along all paths of ? are the same. Let x? be the set of examples selected by ?. The Gibbs error of a non-adaptive policy ? is simply V (?) = Ey?p0 [ ? ;x? ] [1 ? p0 [y; x? ]]. Thus, the optimal non-adaptive P policy selects a set S of examples maximizing its Gibbs error, which is defined by pg0 (S) def = 1 ? y p0 [y; S]2 . P In general, the Gibbs error of a distribution P is 1? i P [i]2 , where the summation is over elements in the support of P . The Gibbs error is a special case of the Tsallis entropy used in nonextensive statistical mechanics [4] and is known to be monotone submodular [7]. From the properties of monotone submodular functions [8], the greedy non-adaptive policy that selects the next example X xi+1 = arg max{pg0 (Si ? {x})} = arg max{1 ? p0 [y; Si ? {x}]2 }, (2) x x y where Si is the set of previously selected examples, is near-optimal compared to the best nonadaptive policy. This is stated below. Theorem 3. Given a budget of k ? 1 queries, let ?n be the non-adaptive policy in ?k selecting examples using Equation (2), and let ?n? be the non-adaptive policy in ?k with the maximum policy Gibbs error. Then, V (?n ) > (1 ? 1/e)V (?n? ). 3.2 The Adaptive Setting In the adaptive setting, a policy takes into account the observed labels when choosing the next example. This is done via the posterior update after observing the label of a selected example. The adaptive setting is the most common setting for active learning. We now describe a greedy adaptive algorithm for this setting that is near-optimal. Assume that the current posterior obtained after observing the labeled examples D is pD . Our greedy algorithm selects the next example x that maximizes pgD (x): X x? = arg max pgD (x) = arg max{1 ? pD [y; x]2 }. (3) x x y?Y From the definition of pgD in Section 3.1, pgD (x) is in fact the Gibbs error respect to the prior pD . Thus, we call this greedy criterion the adaptive of a 1-step policy with maximum Gibbs error criterion (maxGEC). Note that in binary classification where |Y| = 2, maxGEC selects the same example as the maximum Shannon entropy and the least confidence criteria. However, they are different in the multi-class case. Theorem 4 below states that maxGEC is near-optimal compared to the best adaptive policy with respect to the objective in Equation (1). Theorem 4. Given a budget of k ? 1 queries, let ? maxGEC be the adaptive policy in ?k selecting examples using maxGEC and ? ? be the adaptive policy in ?k with the maximum policy Gibbs error. Then, V (? maxGEC ) > (1 ? 1/e)V (? ? ). The proof for this theorem is in the supplementary material. The main idea of the proof is to reduce probabilistic hypotheses to deterministic ones by expanding the hypothesis space. For deterministic hypotheses, we show that maxGEC is equivalent to maximizing the version space reduction objective, which is known to be adaptive monotone submodular [2]. Thus, we can apply a known result for optimizing adaptive monotone submodular function [2] to obtain Theorem 4. 4 Algorithm 1 Batch maxGEC for Bayesian Batch Active Learning Input: Unlabeled pool X, prior p0 , number of iterations k, and batch size s. for i = 0 to k ? 1 do S?? for j = 0 to s ? 1 do x? ? arg maxx pgi (S ? {x}); S ? S ? {x? }; X ? X \ {x? } end for yS ? Query-labels(S); pi+1 ? Posterior-update(pi , S, yS ) end for 3.3 The Batch Setting In the batch setting [5], we query the labels of s (instead of 1) examples each time, and we do this for a given number of k iterations. After each iteration, we query the labeling of the selected batch and update the posterior based on this labeling. The new posterior can be used to select the next batch of examples. A non-adaptive policy can be seen as a batch policy that selects only one batch. Algorithm 1 describes a greedy algorithm for this setting which we call the batch maxGEC algorithm. At iteration i of the algorithm with the posterior pi , the batch S is first initialized to be empty, then s examples are greedily chosen one at a time using the criterion x? = arg max pgi (S ? {x}). x (4) This is equivalent to running the non-adaptive greedy algorithm in Section 3.1 to select each batch. Query-labels(S) returns the true labeling yS of S and Posterior-update(pi , S, yS ) returns the new posterior obtained from the prior pi after observing yS . The following theorem states that batch maxGEC is near optimal compared to the best batch policy with respect to the objective in Equation (1). The proof for this theorem is in the supplementary material. The proof also makes use of the reduction to deterministic hypotheses and the adaptive submodularity of version space reduction. Theorem 5. Given a budget of k batches of size s, let ?bmaxGEC be the batch policy selecting k batches using batch maxGEC and ?b? be the batch policy selecting k batches with maximum policy Gibbs error. Then, V (?bmaxGEC ) > (1 ? e?(e?1)/e )V (?b? ). This theorem has a different bounding constant than those in Theorems 3 and 4 because it uses two levels of approximation to compute the batch policy: at each iteration, it approximates the optimal batch by greedily choosing one example at a time using equation (4) (1st approximation). Then it uses these chosen batches to approximate the optimal batch policy (2nd approximation). In contrast, the fully adaptive case has batch size 1 and only needs the 2nd approximation, while the non-adaptive case chooses 1 batch and only needs the 1st approximation. In non-adaptive and batch settings, our algorithms need to sum over all labelings of the previously selected examples in a batch to choose the next example. This summation is usually expensive and it restricts the algorithms to small batches. However, we note that small batches may be preferred in some real problems. For example, if there is a small number of annotators and labeling one example takes a long time, we may want to select a batch size that matches the number of annotators. In this case, the annotators can label the examples concurrently while we can make use of the labels as soon as they are available. It would take a longer time to label a larger batch and we cannot use the labels until all the examples in the batch are labeled. 4 Computing maxGEC We now discuss how to compute maxGEC and batch maxGEC for some probabilistic models. Computing the values is often difficult and we discuss some sampling methods for this task. 4.1 MaxGEC for Bayesian Conditional Exponential Models A conditional exponential model defines the conditional P probability P? [~y |~x] of a structured lam bels ~y given a structured inputs ~x as P? [~y |~x] = exp ( i=1 ?i Fi (~y , ~x)) /Z? (~x), where ? = 5 Algorithm 2 Approximation for Equation (4). Input: Selected unlabeled examples S, current unlabeled example x, current posterior pcD . ?1 c Sample M label vectors (yi )M i=0 of (X \ T ) ? T from pD using Gibbs sampling and set r ? 0. for i = 0 to M ? 1 do for y ? Y do n o c [h(S) = yi ? h(x) = y] ? M ?1 yj | yj = yi ? yj = y pc S S S D {x} i 2 c r ? r + (pc D [h(S) = yS ? h(x) = y]) end for end for return 1 ? r (?1 , ?2 , . .P . , ?m ) is the parameter vector, Fi (~y , ~x) is the total score of the i-th feature, and Z? (~x) = P m y , ~x)) is the partition function. A well-known conditional exponential model ~ y exp ( i=1 ?i Fi (~ is the linear-chain conditional random field (CRF) [6] in which ~x and ~y both have sequence structures. That is, ~x = (x1 , x2 , . . . , x|~x| ) ? X |~x| and ~y = (y1 , y2 , . . . , y|~x| ) ? Y |~x| . In this model, P|~x| Fi (~y , ~x) = j=1 fi (yj , yj?1 , ~x) where fi (yj , yj?1 , ~x) is the score of the i-th feature at position j. Qm In the Bayesian setting, we assume a prior p0 [?] = i=1 p0 [?i ] on ?, where p0 [?i ] = N (?i |0, ? 2 ) for a known ?. After observing the labeled examples D = {(~xj , ~yj )}tj=1 , we can obtain the posterior ! 2 ! m  t m Y X 1 1 X ?i pD [?] = p0 [?|D] ? exp ?i Fi (~yj , ~xj ) exp ? . Z (~x ) 2 i=1 ? j=1 ? j i=1 For active learning, we need to estimate the Gibbs error in Equation (3) from P the posterior pD . For each ~x, we can approximate the Gibbs error pgD (~x) = 1 ? ~y pD [~y ; ~x]2 by sampling N hypotheses ?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?N from the posterior pD . In this case, PN PN pgD (~x) ? 1 ? N ?2 j=1 t=1 Z?j +?t (~x)/Z?j (~x)Z?t (~x). The derivation for this formula is in the supplementary material. If we only use the MAP hypothesis ?? to approximate the Gibbs error (i.e. the non-Bayesian setting), then N = 1 and pgD (~x) ? 1 ? Z2?? (~x)/Z?? (~x)2 . This approximation can be done efficiently if we can compute the partition functions Z? (~x) efficiently for any ?. This condition holds for a wide range of models including logistic regression, linear-chain CRF, semi-Markov CRF [9], and sparse high-order semi-Markov CRF [10]. 4.2 Batch maxGEC for Bayesian Transductive Naive Bayes We discuss an algorithm to approximate batch maxGEC for non-adaptive and batch active learning with Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes. First, we describe the Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes model for text classification. Let Y ? Y be a random variable denoting the label of a document and W ? W be a random variable denoting a word. In a Naive Bayes model, the parameters are ? = {?y }y?Y ? {?w|y }w?W,y?Y , where ?y = P[Y = y] and ?w|y = P[W = w|Y = y]. For a document X and a label Y , if X = {W1 , W2 , . . . , W|X| } where Wi is a word in the document, we Q|X| model the joint distribution P[X, Y ] = ?Y i=1 ?Wi |Y . In the Bayesian setting, we have a prior p0 [?] such that ?y ? Dirichlet(?) and ?w|y ? Dirichlet(?y ) for each y. When we observe the labeled documents, we update the posterior by counting the labels and the words in each document label. The posterior parameters also follow Dirichlet distributions. Let X be the original pool of training examples and T be the unlabeled testing examples. In transductive setting, we work with the conditional prior pc0 [?] = p0 [?|X; T ]. For a set D = (T, yT ) of labeled examples where T ? X is the set of unlabeled examples and yT is the labeling of T , the conditional posterior is pcD [?] = p0 [?|X; T ; D] = pD [?|(X \ T ) ? T ], where pD [?] = p0 [?|D] is the Dirichlet posterior of the non-transductive model. To implement the batch maxGEC algorithm, we need to estimate the Gibbs error in Equation (4) from the conditional posterior. Let S be the currently selected batch. For each unlabeled example x ? / S, we need to estimate: # "P 2 c X (p [h(S) = y ? h(x) = y]) S D y 2 , 1? (pcD [h(S) = yS ? h(x) = y]) = 1 ? EyS pcD [yS ; S] y ,y S 6 Table 1: AUC of different learning algorithms with batch size s = 10. Task TPass maxGEC LC NPass LogPass LogFisher alt.atheism/comp.graphics talk.politics.guns/talk.politics.mideast comp.sys.mac.hardware/comp.windows.x rec.motorcycles/rec.sport.baseball sci.crypt/sci.electronics sci.space/soc.religion.christian soc.religion.christian/talk.politics.guns Average 87.43 84.92 73.17 93.82 60.46 92.38 91.57 83.39 91.69 92.03 93.60 96.40 85.51 95.83 95.94 93.00 91.66 92.16 92.27 96.23 85.86 95.45 95.59 92.75 84.98 80.80 74.41 92.33 60.85 89.72 85.56 81.24 91.63 86.07 85.87 89.46 82.89 91.16 90.35 88.21 93.92 88.36 88.71 93.90 87.72 94.04 93.96 91.52 where the expectation is with respect to the distribution pcD [yS ; S]. We can use Gibbs sampling to approximate this expectation. First, we sample M label vectors y(X\T )?T of the remaining unlabeled examples from pcD using Gibbs sampling. Then, for each yS , we estimate pcD [yS ; S] by counting the fraction of the M sampled vectors consistent with yS . For each yS and y, we also estimate pcD [h(S) = yS ? h(x) = y] by counting the fraction of the M sampled vectors consistent with both yS and y on S ? {x}. This approximation is equivalent to Algorithm 2. In the algorithm, ySi is the labeling of S according to yi . 5 5.1 Experiments Named Entity Recognition (NER) with CRF In this experiment, we consider the NER task with the Bayesian CRF model described in Section 4.1. We use a subset of the CoNLL 2003 NER task [11] which contains 1928 training and 969 test sentences. Following the setting in [12], we let the cost of querying the label sequence of each sentence be 1. We implement two versions of maxGEC with the approximation algorithm in Section 4.1: the first version approximates Gibbs error by using only the MAP hypothesis (maxGEC-MAP) and the second version approximates Gibbs error by using 50 hypotheses sampled from the posterior (maxGEC-50). We sample the hypotheses for maxGEC-50 from the posterior by MetropolisHastings algorithm with the MAP hypothesis as the initial point. We compare the maxGEC algorithms with 4 other learning criteria: passive learner (Passive), active learner which chooses the longest unlabeled sequence (Longest), active learner which chooses the unlabeled sequence with maximum Shannon entropy (SegEnt), and active learner which chooses the unlabeled sequence with the least confidence (LeastConf). For SegEnt and LeastConf, the entropy and confidence are estimated from the MAP hypothesis. For all the algorithms, we use the MAP hypothesis for Viterbi decoding. To our knowledge, there is no simple way to compute SegEnt or LeastConf criteria from a finite sample of hypotheses except for using only the MAP estimation. The difficulty is to compute a summation (minimization for LeastConf) over all the outputs ~y in the complex structured models. For maxGEC, the summation can be rearranged to obtain the partition functions, which can be computed efficiently using known inference algorithms. This is thus an advantage of using maxGEC. We compare the total area under the F1 curve (AUC) for each algorithm after querying the first 500 sentences. As a percentage of the maximum score of 500, algorithms Passive, Longest, SegEnt, LeastConf, maxGEC-MAP and maxGEC-50 attain 72.8, 67.0, 75.4, 75.5, 75.8 and 76.0 respectively. Hence, the maxGEC algorithms perform better than all the other algorithms, and significantly so over the Passive and Longest algorithms. 5.2 Text Classification with Bayesian Transductive Naive Bayes In this experiment, we consider the text classification model in Section 4.2 with the meta-parameters ? = (0.1, . . . , 0.1) and ?y = (0.1, . . . , 0.1) for all y. We implement batch maxGEC (maxGEC) with the approximation in Algorithm 2 and compare with 5 other algorithms: passive learner with Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes model (TPass), least confidence active learner with Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes model (LC), passive learner with Bayesian non-transductive Naive Bayes model (NPass), passive learner with logistic regression model (LogPass), and batch active learner 7 with Fisher information matrix and logistic regression model (LogFisher) [5]. To implement the least confidence algorithm, we sample M label vectors as in Algorithm 2 and use them to estimate the label distribution for each unlabeled example. The algorithm will then select s examples whose label is least confident according to these estimates. We run the algorithms on 7 binary tasks from the 20Newsgroups dataset [13] with batch size s = 10, 20, 30 and report the areas under the accuracy curve (AUC) for the case s = 10 in Table 1. The results for s = 20, 30 are in the supplementary material. The results are obtained by averaging over 5 different runs of the algorithms, and the AUCs are normalized so that their range is from 0 to 100. From the results, maxGEC obtains the best AUC scores on 4/7 tasks for each batch size and also the best average AUC scores. LC also performs well and its scores are only slightly lower than maxGEC. The passive learning algorithms are much worse than the active learning algorithms. 6 Related Work Among pool-based active learning algorithms, greedy methods are the simplest and most common [14]. Often, the greedy algorithms try to maximize the uncertainty, e.g. Shannon entropy, of the example to be queried [12]. For non-adaptive active learning, greedy optimization of the Shannon entropy guarantees near optimal performance due to the submodularity of the entropy [2]. However, this has not been shown to extend to adaptive active learning, where each example is labeled as soon as it is selected, and the labeled examples are exploited in selecting the next example to label. Although greedy algorithms work well in practice [12, 14], they usually do not have any theoretical guarantee except for the case where data are noiseless. In noiseless Bayesian setting, an algorithm called generalized binary search was proven to be near-optimal: its expected number of queries is within a factor of (ln minh1p0 [h] + 1) of the optimum, where p0 is the prior [2]. This result was obtained using the adaptive submodularity of the version space reduction. Adaptive submodularity is an adaptive version of submodularity, a natural diminishing returns property. The adaptive submodularity of version space reduction was also applied to the batch setting to prove the near-optimality of a batch greedy algorithm that maximizes the average version space reduction for each selected batch [3]. The maxGEC and batch maxGEC algorithms that we proposed in this paper can be seen as generalizations of these version space reduction algorithms to the noisy setting. When the hypotheses are deterministic, our algorithms are equivalent to these version space reduction algorithms. For the case of noisy data, a noisy version of the generalized binary search was proposed [15]. The algorithm was proven to be optimal under the neighborly condition, a very limited setting where ?each hypothesis is locally distinguishable from all others? [15]. In another work, Bayesian active learning was modeled by the Equivalance Class Determination problem and a greedy algorithm called EC2 was proposed for this problem [16]. Although the cost of EC2 is provably near-optimal, this formulation requires an explicit noise model and the near-optimality bound is only useful when the support of the noise model is small. Our formulation, in contrast, is simpler and does not require an explicit noise model: the noise model is implicit in the probabilistic model and our algorithms are only limited by computational concerns. 7 Conclusion We considered a new objective function for Bayesian active learning: the policy Gibbs error. With this objective, we described the maximum Gibbs error criterion for selecting the examples. The algorithm has near-optimality guarantees in the non-adaptive, adaptive and batch settings. We discussed algorithms to approximate the Gibbs error criterion for Bayesian CRF and Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes. We also showed that the criterion is useful for NER with CRF model and for text classification with Bayesian transductive Naive Bayes model. Acknowledgments This work is supported by DSO grant DSOL11102 and the US Air Force Research Laboratory under agreement number FA2386-12-1-4031. 8 References [1] Andrew McCallum and Kamal Nigam. Employing EM and Pool-Based Active Learning for Text Classification. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 350?358, 1998. [2] Daniel Golovin and Andreas Krause. Adaptive Submodularity: Theory and Applications in Active Learning and Stochastic Optimization. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 42(1):427?486, 2011. [3] Yuxin Chen and Andreas Krause. Near-optimal Batch Mode Active Learning and Adaptive Submodular Optimization. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 160?168, 2013. [4] Constantino Tsallis and Edgardo Brigatti. Nonextensive statistical mechanics: A brief introduction. Continuum Mechanics and Thermodynamics, 16(3):223?235, 2004. [5] Steven CH Hoi, Rong Jin, Jianke Zhu, and Michael R Lyu. Batch Mode Active Learning and Its Application to Medical Image Classification. In International Conference on Machine learning (ICML), pages 417?424. ACM, 2006. [6] John Lafferty, Andrew McCallum, and Fernando CN Pereira. Conditional Random Fields: Probabilistic Models for Segmenting and Labeling Sequence Data. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 282?289, 2001. [7] Bassem Sayrafi, Dirk Van Gucht, and Marc Gyssens. The implication problem for measure-based constraints. Information Systems, 33(2):221?239, 2008. [8] G.L. Nemhauser and L.A. Wolsey. Best Algorithms for Approximating the Maximum of a Submodular Set Function. Mathematics of Operations Research, 3(3):177?188, 1978. [9] Sunita Sarawagi and William W. Cohen. Semi-Markov Conditional Random Fields for Information Extraction. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 17:1185?1192, 2004. [10] Viet Cuong Nguyen, Nan Ye, Wee Sun Lee, and Hai Leong Chieu. Semi-Markov Conditional Random Field with High-Order Features. In ICML Workshop on Structured Sparsity: Learning and Inference, 2011. [11] Erik F. Tjong Kim Sang and Fien De Meulder. Introduction to the CoNLL-2003 Shared Task: LanguageIndependent Named Entity Recognition. In Proceedings of the 17th Conference on Natural Language Learning (HLT-NAACL 2003), pages 142?147, 2003. [12] Burr Settles and Mark Craven. An Analysis of Active Learning Strategies for Sequence Labeling Tasks. In Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), pages 1070?1079. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2008. [13] Thorsten Joachims. A Probabilistic Analysis of the Rocchio Algorithm with TFIDF for Text Categorization. Technical report, DTIC Document, 1996. [14] Burr Settles. Active Learning Literature Survey. Technical Report 1648, University of WisconsinMadison, 2009. [15] Robert Nowak. Noisy Generalized Binary Search. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 22:1366?1374, 2009. [16] Daniel Golovin, Andreas Krause, and Debajyoti Ray. Near-Optimal Bayesian Active Learning with Noisy Observations. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 766?774, 2010. 9
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Marginals-to-Models Reducibility Michael Kearns University of Pennsylvania [email protected] Tim Roughgarden Stanford University [email protected] Abstract We consider a number of classical and new computational problems regarding marginal distributions, and inference in models specifying a full joint distribution. We prove general and efficient reductions between a number of these problems, which demonstrate that algorithmic progress in inference automatically yields progress for ?pure data? problems. Our main technique involves formulating the problems as linear programs, and proving that the dual separation oracle required by the ellipsoid method is provided by the target problem. This technique may be of independent interest in probabilistic inference. 1 Introduction The movement between the specification of ?local? marginals and models for complete joint distributions is ingrained in the language and methods of modern probabilistic inference. For instance, in Bayesian networks, we begin with a (perhaps partial) specification of local marginals or CPTs, which then allows us to construct a graphical model for the full joint distribution. In turn, this allows us to make inferences (perhaps conditioned on observed evidence) regarding marginals that were not part of the original specification. In many applications, the specification of marginals is derived from some combination of (noisy) observed data and (imperfect) domain expertise. As such, even before the passage to models for the full joint distribution, there are a number of basic computational questions we might wish to ask of given marginals, such as whether they are consistent with any joint distribution, and if not, what the nearest consistent marginals are. These can be viewed as questions about the ?data?, as opposed to inferences made in models derived from the data. In this paper, we prove a number of general, polynomial time reductions between such problems regarding data or marginals, and problems of inference in graphical models. By ?general? we mean the reductions are not restricted to particular classes of graphs or algorithmic approaches, but show that any computational progress on the target problem immediately transfers to progress on the source problem. For example, one of our main results establishes that the problem of determining whether given marginals, whose induced graph (the ?data graph?) falls within some class G, are consistent with any joint distribution reduces to the problem of MAP inference in Markov networks falling in the same class G. Thus, for instance, we immediately obtain that the tractability of MAP inference in trees or tree-like graphs yields an efficient algorithm for marginal consistency in tree data graphs; and any future progress in MAP inference for other classes G will similarly transfer. Conversely, our reductions also can be used to establish negative results. For instance, for any class G for which we can prove the intractability of marginal consistency, we can immediately infer the intractability of MAP inference as well. There are a number of reasons to be interested in such problems regarding marginals. One, as we have already suggested, is the fact that given marginals may not be consistent with any joint 1 Figure 1: Summary of main results. Arrows indicate that the source problem can be reduced to the target problem for any class of graphs G, and in polynomial time. Our main results are the left-to-right arrows from marginals-based problems to Markov net inference problems. distribution, due to noisy observations or faulty domain intuitions,1 and we may wish to know this before simply passing to a joint model that forces or assumes consistency. At the other extreme, given marginals may be consistent with many joint distributions, with potentially very different properties.2 Rather than simply selecting one of these consistent distributions in which to perform inference (as would typically happen in the construction of a Markov or Bayes net), we may wish to reason over the entire class of consistent distributions, or optimize over it (for instance, choosing to maximize or minimize independence). We thus consider four natural algorithmic problems involving (partially) specified marginals: ? C ONSISTENCY: Is there any joint distribution consistent with given marginals? ? C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY: What are the consistent marginals closest to given inconsistent marginals? ? S MALL S UPPORT: Of the consistent distributions with the closest marginals, can we compute one with support size polynomial in the data (i.e., number of given marginal values)? ? M AX E NTROPY: What is the maximum entropy distribution closest to given marginals? The consistency problem has been studied before as the membership problem for the marginal polytope (see Related Work); in the case of inconsistency, the closest consistency problem seeks the minimal perturbation to the data necessary to recover coherence. When there are many consistent distributions, which one should be singled out? While the maximum entropy distribution is a staple of probabilistic inference, it is not the only interesting answer. For example, consider the three features ?votes Republican?, ?supports universal healthcare?, and ?supports tougher gun control?, and suppose the single marginals are 0.5, 0.5, 0.5. The maximum entropy distribution is uniform over the 8 possibilities. We might expect reality to hew closer to a small support distribution, perhaps even 50/50 over the two vectors 100 and 011. The small support problem can be informally viewed as attempting to minimize independence or randomization, and thus is a natural contrast to maximum entropy. It is also worth noting that small support distributions arise naturally through the joint behavior of no-regret algorithms in game-theoretic settings [1]. We also consider two standard algorithmic inference problems on full joint distributions (models): 1 For a simple example, consider three random variables for which each pairwise marginal specifies that the settings (0,1) and (1,0) each occurs with probability 1/2. The corresponding ?data graph? is a triangle. This requires that each variable always disagrees with the other two, which is impossible. 2 For example, consider random variables X, Y, Z. Suppose the pairwise marginals for X and Y and for Y and Z specify that all four binary settings are equally likely. No pairwise marginals for X and Z are given, so the data graph is a two-hop path. One consistent distribution flips a fair coin independently for each variable; but another flips one coin for X, a second for Y , and sets Z = X. The former maximizes entropy while the latter minimizes support size. 2 ? MAP I NFERENCE: What is the MAP joint assignment in a given Markov network? ? G ENERALIZED PARTITION: What is the normalizing constant of a given Markov network, possibly after conditioning on the value of one vertex or edge? All six of these problems are parameterized by a class of graphs G ? for the four marginals problems, this is the graph induced by the given pairwise marginals, while for the models problems, it is the graph of the given Markov network. All of our reductions are of the form ?for every class G, if there is a polynomial-time algorithm for solving inference problem B for (model) graphs in G, then there is a polynomial-time algorithm for marginals problem A for (marginal) graphs in G? ? that is, A reduces to B. Our main results, which are summarized in Figure 1, can be stated informally as follows: ? C ONSISTENCY reduces to MAP I NFERENCE. ? C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY reduces to MAP I NFERENCE. ? S MALL S UPPORT reduces to MAP I NFERENCE. ? M AX E NTROPY reduces to G ENERALIZED PARTITION.3 While connections between some of these problems are known for specific classes of graphs ? most notably in trees, where all of these problems are tractable and rely on common underlying algorithmic approaches such as dynamic programming ? the novelty of our results is their generality, showing that the above reductions hold for every class of graphs. All of our reductions share a common and powerful technique: the use of the ellipsoid method for Linear Programming (LP), with the key step being the articulation of an appropriate separation oracle. The first three problems we consider have a straightforward LP formulation which will typically have a number of variables that is equal to the number of joint settings, and therefore exponential in the number of variables; for the M AX E NTROPY problem, there is an analogous convex program formulation. Since our goal is to run in time polynomial in the input length (the number and size of given marginals), the straightforward LP formulation will not suffice. However, by passing to the dual LP, we instead obtain an LP with only a polynomial number of variables, but an exponential number of constraints that can be represented implicitly. For each of the reductions above, we show that the required separation oracle for these implicit constraints is provided exactly by the corresponding inference problem (MAP I NFERENCE or G ENERALIZED PARTITION). We believe this technique may be of independent interest and have other applications in probabilistic inference. It is perhaps surprising that in the study of problems strictly addressing properties of given marginals (which have received relatively little attention in the graphical models literature historically), problems of inference in full joint models (which have received great attention) should arise so naturally and generally. For the marginal problems, our reductions (via the ellipsoid method) effectively create a series of ?fictitious? Markov networks such that the solutions to corresponding inference problems (MAP I NFERENCE and G ENERALIZED PARTITION) indirectly lead to a solution to the original marginal problems. Related Work: The literature on graphical models and probabilistic inference is rife with connections between some of the problems we study here for specific classes of graphical models (such as trees or otherwise sparse structures), and under specific algorithmic approaches (such as dynamic programming or message-passing algorithms more generally, and various forms of variational inference); see [2, 3, 4] for good overviews. In contrast, here we develop general and efficient reductions between marginal and inference problems that hold regardless of the graph structure or algorithmic approach; we are not aware of prior efforts in this vein. Some of the problems we consider are also either new or have been studied very little, such as C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY and S MALL S UPPORT. The C ONSISTENCY problem has been studied before as the membership problem for the marginal polytope. In particular, [8] shows that finding the MAP assignment for Markov random fields with pairwise potentials can be cast as an integer linear program over the marginal polytope ? that is, algorithms for the C ONSISTENCY problem are useful subroutines for inference. Our work is the 3 The conceptual ideas in this reduction are well known. We include a formal treatment in the Appendix for completeness and to provide an analogy with our other reductions, which are our more novel contributions. 3 first to show a converse, that inference algorithms are useful subroutines for decision and optimization problems for the marginal polytope. Furthermore, previous polynomial-time solutions to the C ONSISTENCY problem generally give a compact (polynomial-size) description of the marginal polytope. Our approach dodges this ambitious requirement, in that it only needs a polynomial-time separation oracle (which, for this problem, turns out to be MAP inference). As there are many combinatorial optimization problems with no compact LP formulation that admit polynomial-time ellipsoid-based algorithms ? like non-bipartite matching, with its exponentially many odd cycle inequalities ? our approach provides a new way of identifying computationally tractable special cases of problems concerning marginals. The previous work that is perhaps most closely related in spirit to our interests are [5] and [6, 7]. These works provide reductions of some form, but not ones that are both general (independent of graph structure) and polynomial time. However, they do suggest both the possibility and interest in such stronger reductions. The paper [5] discusses and provides heuristic reductions between MAP I NFERENCE and G ENERALIZED PARTITION. The work in [6, 7] makes the point that maximizing entropy subject to an (approximate) consistency condition yields a distribution that can be represented as a Markov network over the graph induced by the original data or marginals. As far as we are aware, however, there has been essentially no formal complexity analysis (i.e., worst-case polynomial-time guarantees) for algorithms that compute max-entropy distributions.4 2 Preliminaries 2.1 Problem Definitions For clarity of exposition, we focus on the pairwise case in which every marginal involves at most two variables.5 Denote the underlying random variables by X1 , . . . , Xn , which we assume have range [k] = {0, 1, 2, . . . , k}. The input is at most one real-valued single marginal value ?is for every variable i ? [n] and value s ? [k], and at most one real-valued pairwise marginal value ?ijst for every ordered variable pair i, j ? [n]?[n] with i < j and every pair s, t ? [k]. Note that we allow a marginal to be only partially specified. The data graph induced by a set of marginals has one vertex per random variable Xi , and an undirected edge (i, j) if and only if at least one of the given pairwise marginal values involves the variables Xi and Xj . Let M1 and M2 denote the sets of indices (i, s) and (i, j, s, t) of the given single and pairwise marginal values, and m = |M1 | + |M2 | the total number of marginal values. Let A = [k]n denote the space of all possible variable assignments. We say that the given marginals ? are consistent if there exists a (joint) probability distribution consistent with all of them (i.e., that induces the marginals ?). With these basic definitions, we can now give formal definitions for the marginals problems we consider. Let G denote an arbitrary class of undirected graphs. ? C ONSISTENCY (G): Given marginals ? such that the induced data graph falls in G, are they consistent? ? C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY (G): Given (possibly inconsistent) marginals ? such that the induced data graph falls in G, compute the consistent marginals ? minimizing ||? ? ?||1 . ? S MALL S UPPORT (G): Given (consistent or inconsistent) marginals ? such that the induced data graph falls in G, compute a distribution that has a polynomial-size support and marginals ? that minimize ||? ? ?||1 . ? M AX E NTROPY (G): Given (consistent or inconsistent) marginals ? such that the induced data graph falls in G, compute the maximum entropy distribution that has marginals ? that minimize ||? ? ?||1 . 4 There are two challenges to doing this. The first, which has been addressed in previous work, is to circumvent the exponential number of decision variables via a separation oracle. The second, which does not seem to have been previously addressed, is to bound the diameter of the search space (i.e., the magnitude of the optimal Lagrange variables). Proving this requires using special properties of the M AX E NTROPY problem, beyond mere convexity. We adapt recent techniques of [13] to provide the necessary argument. 5 All of our results generalize to the case of higher-order marginals in a straightforward manner. 4 It is important to emphasize that all of the problems above are ?model-free?, in that we do not assume that the marginals are consistent with, or generated by, any particular model (such as a Markov network). They are simply given marginals, or ?data?. For each of these problems, our interest is in algorithms whose running time is polynomial in the size of the input ?. The prospects for this depend strongly on the class G, with tractability generally following for ?nice? classes such as tree or tree-like graphs, and intractability for the most general cases. Our contribution is in showing a strong connection between tractability for these marginals problems and the following inference problems for any class G. ? MAP I NFERENCE (G): Given a Markov network whose graph falls in G, find the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or most probable joint assignment.6 ? G ENERALIZED PARTITION: Given a Markov network whose graph falls in G, compute the partition function or normalization constant for the full joint distribution, possibly after conditioning on the value of a single vertex or edge.7 2.2 The Ellipsoid Method for Linear Programming Our algorithms for the C ONSISTENCY, C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY, and S MALL S UPPORT problems use linear programming. There are a number of algorithms that solve explictly described linear programs in time polynomial in the description size. Our problems, however, pose an additional challenge: the obvious linear programming formulation has size exponential in the parameters of interest. To address this challenge, we turn to the ellipsoid method [9], which can solve in polynomial time linear programs that have an exponential number of implicitly described constraints, provided there is a polynomial-time ?separation oracle? for these constraints. The ellipsoid method is discussed exhaustively in [10, 11]; we record in this section the facts necessary for our results. Definition 2.1 (Separation Oracle) Let P = {x ? Rn : aT1 x ? b1 , . . . , aTm x ? bm } denote the feasible region of m linear constraints in n dimensions. A separation oracle for P is an algorithm that takes as input a vector x ? Rn , and either (i) verifies that x ? P; or (ii) returns a constraint i such that ati x > bi . A polynomial-time separation oracle runs in time polynomial in n, the maximum description length of a single constraint, and the description length of the input x. One obvious separation oracle is to simply check, given a candidate solution x, each of the m constraints in turn. More interesting and relevant are constraint sets that have size exponential in the dimension n but admit a polynomial-time separation oracle. Theorem 2.2 (Convergence Guarantee of the Ellipsoid Method [9]) Suppose the set P = {x ? Rn : aT1 x ? b1 , . . . , aTm x ? bm } admits a polynomial-time separation oracle and cT x is a linear objective function. Then, the ellipsoid method solves the optimization problem {max cT x : x ? P} in time polynomial in n and the maximum description length of a single constraint or objective function. The method correctly detects if P = ?. Moreover, if P is non-empty and bounded, the ellipsoid method returns a vertex of P.8 Theorem 2.2 provides a general reduction from a problem to an intuitively easier one: if the problem of verifying membership in P can be solved in polynomial time, then the problem of optimizing an arbitrary linear function over P can also be solved in polynomial time. This reduction is ?many-toone,? meaning that the ellipsoid method invokes the separation oracle for P a large (but polynomial) number of times, each with a different candidate point x. See Appendix A.1 for a high-level description of the ellipsoid method and [10, 11] for a detailed treatment. The ellipsoid method also applies to convex programming problems under some additional technical conditions. This is discussed in Appendix A.2 and applied to the M AX E NTROPY problem in Appendix A.3. 6 Formally, the input is a graph G = (V, E) with a log-potential log ?i (s) and log ?ij (s, t) for each vertex i ? V and edge (i, j) ? E, and each value Q s ? [k] = Q{0, 1, 2 . . . , k} and pair s, t ? [k] ? [k] of values. The MAP assignment maximizes P (a) := i?V ?i (ai ) (i,j)?E ?ij (ai , aj ) over all assignments a ? [k]V . P P 7 Formally, given the log-potentials of a Markov network, compute a?[k]n P (a); a : ai =s P (a) for a P given i, s; or a : ai =s,aj =t P (a) for a given i, j, s, t. 8 A vertex is a point of P that satisfies with equality n linearly independent constraints. 5 3 C ONSISTENCY Reduces to MAP I NFERENCE The goal of this section is to reduce the C ONSISTENCY problem for data graphs in the family G to the MAP I NFERENCE problem for networks in G. Theorem 3.1 (Main Result 1) Let G be a set of graphs. If the the MAP I NFERENCE (G) problem can be solved in polynomial time, then the C ONSISTENCY (G) problem can be solved in polynomial time. We begin with a straightforward linear programming formulation of the C ONSISTENCY problem. Lemma 3.2 (Linear Programming Formulation) An instance of the C ONSISTENCY problem admits a consistent distribution if and only if the following linear program (P) has a solution: (P ) max 0 p subject to: P a?A:ai =s P a?A:ai =s,aj =t P for all (i, s) ? M1 pa = ?is pa = ?ijst pa = 1 pa ? 0 for all (i, j, s, t) ? M2 a?A for all a ? A. Solving (P) using the ellipsoid method (Theorem 2.2), or any other linear programming method, requires time at least |A| = (k +1)n , the number of decision variables. This is generally exponential in the size of the input, which is proportional to the number m of given marginal values. A ray of hope is provided by the fact that the number of constraints of the linear program in Lemma 3.2 is equal to the number of marginal values. With an eye toward applying the ellipsoid method (Theorem 2.2), we consider the dual linear program. We use the following notation. Given a vector y indexed by M1 ? M2 , we define X X y(a) = yis + yijst (1) (i,s)?M1 : ai =s (i,j,s,t)?M2 : ai =s,aj =t for each assignment a ? A, and ?T y = X X ?is yis + (i,s)?M1 ?ijst yijst . (2) (i,j,s,t)?M2 Strong linear programming duality implies the following. Lemma 3.3 (Dual Linear Programming Formulation) An instance of the C ONSISTENCY problem admits a consistent distribution if and only if the optimal value of the following linear program (D) is 0: (D) max y,z ?T y + z subject to: y(a) + z ? 0 y, z unrestricted. for all a ? A The number of variables in (D) ? one per constraint of the primal linear program ? is polynomial in the size of the C ONSISTENCY input. What use is the MAP I NFERENCE problem for solving the C ONSISTENCY problem? The next lemma forges the connection. Lemma 3.4 (Map Inference as a Separation Oracle) Let G be a set of graphs and suppose that the MAP I NFERENCE (G) problem can be solved in polynomial time. Consider an instance of the C ONSISTENCY problem with a data graph in G, and a candidate solution y, z to the corresponding 6 dual linear program (D). Then, there is a polynomial-time algorithm that checks whether or not there is an assignment a ? A that satisfies X X yis + yijst > ?z, (3) (i,s)?M1 : ai =s (i,j,s,t)?M2 : ai =s,aj =t and produces such an assignment if one exists. Proof: The key idea is to interpret y as the log-potentials of a Markov network. Precisely, construct a Markov network N as follows. The vertex set V and edge set E correspond to the random variables and edge set of the data graph of the C ONSISTENCY instance. The potential function at a vertex i is defined as ?i (s) = exp{yis } for each value s ? [k]. The potential function at an edge (i, j) is defined as ?ij (s, t) = exp{yijst } for (s, t) ? [k] ? [k]. For a missing pair (i, s) ? / M1 or 4tuple (i, j, s, t) ? / M2 , we define the corresponding potential value ?i (s) or ?ij (st) to be 1. The underlying graph of N is the same as the data graph of the given C ONSISTENCY instance and hence is a member of G. In the distribution induced by N , the probability of an assignment a ? [k]n is, by definition, proportional to ? ?? ? Y Y ? exp{yiai }? ? exp{yijai aj }? = exp{y(a)}. i?V : (i,ai )?M1 (i,j)?E : (i,j,ai ,aj )?M2 That is, the MAP assignment for the Markov network N is the assignment that maximizes the lefthand size of (3). Checking if some assignment a ? A satisfies (3) can thus be implemented as follows: compute the MAP assignment a? for N ? by assumption, and since the graph of N lies in G, this can be done in polynomial time; return a? if it satisfies (3), and otherwise conclude that no assignment a ? A satisfies (3).  All of the ingredients for the proof of Theorem 3.1 are now in place. Proof of Theorem 3.1: Assume that there is a polynomial-time algorithm for the MAP I NFERENCE (G) problem with the family G of graphs, and consider an instance of the C ONSISTENCY problem with data graph G ? G. Deciding whether or not this instance has a consistent distribution is equivalent to solving the program (D) in Lemma 3.3. By Theorem 2.2, the ellipsoid method can be used to solve (D) in polynomial time, provided the constraint set admits a polynomial-time separation oracle. Lemma 3.4 shows that the relevant separation oracle is equivalent to computing the MAP assignment of a Markov network with graph G ? G. By assumption, the latter problem can be solved in polynomial time.  We defined the C ONSISTENCY problem as a decision problem, where the answer is ?yes? or no.? For instances that admit a consistent distribution, we can also ask for a succinct representation of a distribution that witnesses the marginals? consistency. We next strengthen Theorem 3.1 by showing that for consistent instances, under the same hypothesis, we can compute a small-support consistent distribution in polynomial time. See Figure 2 for the high-level description of the algorithm. Theorem 3.5 (Small-Support Witnesses) Let G be a set of graphs. If the MAP I NFERENCE (G) problem can be solved in polynomial time, then for every consistent instance of the C ONSISTENCY (G) problem with m = |M1 | + |M2 | marginal values, a consistent distribution with support size at most m + 1 can be computed in polynomial time. Proof: Consider a consistent instance of C ONSISTENCY with data graph G ? G. The algorithm of Theorem 3.1 concludes by solving the dual linear program of Lemma 3.3 using the ellipsoid method. This method runs for a polynomial number K of iterations, and each iteration generates one new inequality. At termination, the algorithm has identified a ?reduced dual linear program?, in which a set of only K out of the original (k + 1)n constraints is sufficient to prove the optimality of its solution. By strong duality, the corresponding ?reduced primal linear program,? obtained from the linear program in Lemma 3.2 by retaining only the decision variables corresponding to the K 7 1. Solve the dual linear program (D) (Lemma 3.3) using the ellipsoid method (Theorem 2.2), using the given polynomial-time algorithm for MAP I NFERENCE (G) to implement the ellipsoid separation oracle (see Lemma 3.4). 2. If the dual (D) has a nonzero (and hence, unbounded) optimal objective function value, then report ?no consistent distributions? and halt. 3. Explicitly form the reduced primal linear program (P-red), obtained from (P) by retaining only the variables that correspond to the dual inequalities generated by the separation oracle in Step 1. 4. Solve (P-red) using a polynomial-time linear programming algorithm that returns a vertex solution, and return the result. Figure 2: High-level description of the polynomial-time reduction from C ONSISTENCY (G) to MAP I NFER ENCE (G) (Steps 1 and 2) and postprocessing to extract a small-support distribution that witnesses consistent marginals (Steps 3 and 4). reduced dual constraints, has optimal objective function value 0. In particular, this reduced primal linear program is feasible. The reduced primal linear program has a polynomial number of variables and constraints, so it can be solved by the ellipsoid method (or any other polynomial-time method) to obtain a feasible point p. The point p is an explicit description of a consistent distribution with support size at most K. To improve the support size upper bound from K to m + 1, recall from Theorem 2.2 that p is a vertex of the feasible region, meaning it satisfies K linearly independent constraints of the reduced primal linear program with equality. This linear program has P at most one constraint for each of the m given marginal values, at most one normalization constraint a?A pa = 1, and non-negativity constraints. Thus, at least K?m?1 of the constraints that p satisfies with equality are non-negativity constraints. Equivalently, it has at most m + 1 strictly positive entries.  4 C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY, S MALL S UPPORT Reduce to MAP I NFERENCE This section considers the C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY and S MALL S UPPORT problems. The input to these problems is the same as in the C ONSISTENCY problem ? single marginal values ?is for (i, s) ? M1 and pairwise marginal values ?ijst for (i, j, s, t) ? M2 . The goal is to compute sets of marginals {?is }M1 and {?ijst }M2 that are consistent and, subject to this constraint, minimize the `1 norm ||? ? ?||1 with respect to the given marginals. An algorithm for the C LOSEST C ONSIS TENCY problem solves the C ONSISTENCY problem as a special case, since a given set of marginals is consistent if and only if the corresponding C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY problem has optimal objective function value 0. Despite this greater generality, the C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY problem also reduces in polynomial time to the MAP I NFERENCE problem, as does the still more general S MALL S UPPORT problem. Theorem 4.1 (Main Result 2) Let G be a set of graphs. If the MAP I NFERENCE (G) problem can be solved in polynomial time, then the C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY (G) problem can be solved in polynomial time. Moreover, a distribution consistent with the optimal marginals with support size at most 3m + 1 can be computed in polynomial time, where m = |M1 | + |M2 | denotes the number of marginal values. The formulation of the C LOSEST C ONSISTENCY (G) problem has linear constraints ? the same as those in Lemma 3.2, except with the given marginals ? replaced by the computed consistent marginals ? ? but a nonlinear objective function ||? ? ?||1 . We can simulate the absolute value functions in the objective by adding a small number of variables and constraints. We provide details and the proof of Theorem 4.1 in Appendix A.4. 8 References [1] Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and G?abor Lugosi. Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [2] D. Koller and N. Friedman. Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques. MIT Press, 2009. [3] M.J. Wainwright and M.I. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 1(1), 2008. [4] S. Lauritzen. Graphical Models. Oxford University Press, 1996. [5] T. Hazan and T. Jaakkola. On the partition function and random maximum a-posteriori perturbations. Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [6] J. K. Johnson, V. Chandrasekaran, and A. S. Willsky. Learning markov structure by maximum entropy relaxation. In 11th International Conference in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS 2007), 2007. [7] V. Chandrasekaran, J. K. Johnson, and A. S. Willsky. Maximum entropy relaxation for graphical model selection given inconsistent statistics. In IEEE Statistical Signal Processing Workshop (SSP 2007), 2007. [8] D. Sontag and T. Jaakkola. New outer bounds on the marginal polytope. In Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2007. [9] L. G. Khachiyan. A polynomial algorithm in linear programming. Soviet Mathematics Doklady, 20(1):191?194, 1979. [10] A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski. Optimization iii. Lecture notes, 2012. [11] M. Gr?otschel, L. Lov?asz, and A. Schrijver. Geometric Algorithms and Combinatorial Optimization. Springer, 1988. Second Edition, 1993. [12] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge, 2004. [13] M. Singh and N. Vishnoi. Entropy, optimization and counting. arXiv, (1304.8108), 2013. 9
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Constrained Optimization Applied to the Parameter Setting Problem for Analog Circuits David Kirk, Kurt Fleischer, Lloyd Watts~ Alan Barr Computer Graphics 350-74 California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA 91125 Abstract We use constrained optimization to select operating parameters for two circuits: a simple 3-transistor square root circuit, and an analog VLSI artificial cochlea. This automated method uses computer controlled measurement and test equipment to choose chip parameters which minimize the difference between the actual circuit's behavior and a specified goal behavior. Choosing the proper circuit parameters is important to compensate for manufacturing deviations or adjust circuit performance within a certain range. As biologically-motivated analog VLSI circuits become increasingly complex, implying more parameters, setting these parameters by hand will become more cumbersome. Thus an automated parameter setting method can be of great value [Fleischer 90]. Automated parameter setting is an integral part of a goal-based engineering design methodology in which circuits are constructed with parameters enabling a wide range of behaviors, and are then "tuned" to the desired behaviors automatically. 1 Introduction Constrained optimization methods are useful for setting the parameters of analog circuits. We present two experiments in which an automated method successfully finds parameter settings which cause our circuit's behavior to closely approximate the desired behavior. These parameter-setting experiments are described in Section 3. The difficult subproblems encountered were (1) building the electronic setup ?Dept of Electrical Engineering 116-81 789 790 Kirk, Fleischer, Watts, and Barr to acquire the data and control the circuit, and (2) specifying the computation of deviation from desired behavior in a mathematical form suitable for the optimization tools. We describe the necessary components of the electronic setup in Section 2, and we discuss the selection of optimization technique toward the end of Section 3. Automated parameter setting can be an important component of a system to build accurate analog circuits. The power of this method is enhanced by including appropriate parameters in the initial design of a circuit: we can build circuits with a wide range of behaviors and then "tune" them to the desired behavior. In Section 6, we describe a comprehensive design methodology which embodies this strategy. 2 Implementation We have assembled a system which allows us to test these ideas. The system can be conceptually decomposed into four distinct parts: circuit: an analog VLSI chip intended to compute a particular function. target function: a computational model quantitatively describing the desired behavior of the circuit . This model may have the same parameters as the circuit, or may be expressed in terms of biological data that the circuit is to mimic. error metric: compares the target to the actual circuit function, and computes a difference measure. constrained optimization tool: a numerical analysis tool, chosen based on the characteristics of the particular problem posed by this circuit. Constrained Optimization Tool parameters Circuit difference measure Target Function The constrained optimization tool uses the error metric to compute the difference between the performance of the circuit and the target function. It then adjusts the parameters to minimize the error metric, causing the actual circuit behavior to approach the target function as closely as possible. 2.1 A Generic Physical Setup for Optimization A typical physical setup for choosing chip parameters under computer control has the following elements: an analog VLSI circuit, a digital computer to control the optimization process, computer programmable voltage/current sources to drive the chip, and computer programmable measurement devices, such as electrometers and oscilloscopes, to measure the chip's response. The combination of all of these elements provides a self-contained environment for testing chips. The setting of parameters can then be performed at whatever level Constrained Optimization Applied to the Parameter Setting Problem for Analog Circuits of automation is desirable. In this way, all inputs to the chip and all measurements of the outputs can be controlled by the computer. 3 The Experiments We perform two experiments to set parameters of analog VLSI circuits using constrained optimization. The first experiment is a simple one-parameter system, a 3-transistor "square root" circuit. The second experiment uses a more complex time-varying multi-parameter system, an analog VLSI electronic cochlea. The artificial cochlea is composed of cascaded 2nd order section filters . 3.1 Square Root Experiment In the first experiment we examine a "square-root" circuit [Mead 89], which actually computes ax Ci + b, where a is typically near 0.4. We introduce a parameter (V) into this circuit which varies a indirectly. By adjusting the voltage V in the square root circuit, as shown in Figure l(a), we can alter the shape of the response curve . .... ..... 1.6 ~ 1.4 1.0 ;i .8 ............. ??? 1i"" " " " "' / .../ ..~.// 1.2 "~ ... -.,. ~ .......... . ...... ..51 ~/ .6 x ,I': v .4 re,/ ? ?sqrt(x)+b """" chip data ? ~: .2 o 2 3 4 lin (10e-6) Figure 1: (a) Square root circuit. (b) Resulting fit. We have little control over the values of a and b in this circuit, so we choose an error metric which optimizes a, targeting a curve which has a slope of 0.5 in log-log lin vs. lout space. Since b < < we can safely ignore b for the purposes of this parameter-setting experiment. The entire optimization process takes only a few minutes for this simple one-parameter system . Figure l(b) shows the final results of the square root computation, with the circuit output normalized by a and b. avx, 3.2 Analog VLSI Cochlea As an example of a more complex system on which to test the constrained optimization technique, we chose a silicon cochlea, as described by [Lyon 88]. The silicon cochlea is a cascade of lowpass second-order filter sections arranged such that the natural frequency r of the stages decreases exponentially with distance into the 791 792 Kirk, Fleischer, Watts, and Barr cascade, while the quality factor Q of the filters is the same for each section (tap). The value of Q determines the peak gain at each tap. Va ---r-------------------,----------------- ____---''---_________ VD'Igh! V~--~------------------~---------------- Figure 2: Cochlea circuit To specify the performance of such a cochlea, we need to specify the natural frequencies of the first and last taps, and the peak gain at each tap. These performance parameters are controlled by bias voltages VTL VTR , and VQ, respectively. The parameter-setting problem for this circuit is to find the bias voltages that give the desired performance. This optimization task is more lengthy than the square root optimization. Each measurement of the frequency response takes a few minutes, since it is composed of many individual instrument readings. 3.2.1 Cochlea Results The results of our attempts to set parameters for the analog VLSI cochlea are quite encouragmg. 45 40 ]' is 35 ~ 30 150 2S Q en ? ... cE ~ First tap - - Last tap --- --- 20 IS 10 5 0 10 20 30 40 SO 60 70 80 Optinrization Step Figure 3: Error metric trajectories for gradient descent on cochlea Figure 3 shows the trajectories of the error metrics for the first and last tap of the cochlea. Most of the progress is made in the early steps, after which the optimization Constrained Optimization Applied to the Parameter Setting Problem for Analog Circuits is proceeding along the valley of the error surface, shown in Figure 5. 8 6 \ 4 2 o -2 :.:.. . . ...-. ....... ............. ..../~:.::- \ '\ 1\\ ~__~~ ..;:..~--..--~~r--~,~.: -4 -6 , \ ,/ ~ ~.\ '. \ \i \ \ First tap goal - First tap data -+--Last tap goal ... . --. Last tap data _....-.... -8 100 1000 Frequency 10000 Figure 4: Target frequency response and gradient descent optimized data for cochlea Figure 4 shows both the target frequency response data and the frequency responses which result from our chosen parameter settings. The curves are quite similar, and the differences are at the scale of measurement noise and instrument resolution in our system . 3.2.2 Cochlea Optimization Strategies We explored several optimization strategies for finding the best parameters for the electronic cochlea. Of these, two are of particular interest: special knowledge: use a priori knowledge of the effect of each knob to guide the optimization gradient descent: assume that we know nothing except the input/output relation of the chip. Then we can estimate the gradient for gradient descent by varying the inputs. Robust numerical techniques such as conjugate gradient can also be helpful when the energy landscape is steep. We found the gradient descent technique to be reliable, although it did not converge nearly as quickly as the "special knowledge" optimization. This corresponds with our intuition that any special knowledge we have about the circuit's operation will aid us in setting the parameters. 4 Choosing An Appropriate Optimization Method One element of our system which has worked without much difficulty is the optimization. However, more complex circuits may require more sophisticated optimization methods. A wide variety of constrained optimization algorithms exist which are 793 794 Kirk, Fleischer, Watts, and Barr Figure 5: The error surface for the error metric for the frequency response of the first tap of the cochlea. Note the narrow valley in the error surface. Our target (the minimum) lies near the far left, at the deepest part of the valley. effective on particular classes of problems (gradient descent, quasi-newton, simulated annealing, etc) [Platt 89, Gill 81, Press 86, Fleischer 90], and we can choose a method appropriate to the problem at hand. Techniques such as simulated annealing can find optimal parameter combinations for multi-parameter systems with complex behavior, which gives us confidence that our methods will work for more complex circuits. The choice of error metric may also need to be reconsidered for more complex circuits. For systems with time-varying signals, we can use an error metric which captures the time course of the signal. We can deal with hysteresis by beginning at a known state and following the same path for each optimization step. Noisy and non-smooth functions can be improved by averaging data and using robust numeric techniques which are less sensitive to noise. 5 Conclusions The constrained optimization technique works well when a well-defined goal for chip operation can be specified . We can compare automated parameter setting with adjustment by hand: consider that humans often fail in the same situations where optimization fails (eg. multiple local minima). In contrast, for larger dimensional spaces, hand adjustment is very difficult, while an optimization technique may succeed. We expect to integrate the technique into our chip development process, and future developments will move the optimization and learning process gradually into the chip . It is interesting to note that our gradient descent method "learns" the parameters of the chip in a manner similar to backpropagation. Seen from this Constrained Optimization Applied to the Parameter Setting Problem for Analog Circuits perspective, this work is a step on the path toward robust on-chip learning. In order to use this technique, there are two moderately difficult problems to address. First, one must assemble and interface the equipment to set parameters and record results from the circuit under computer control (eg. voltage and current sources, electrometer, digital oscilloscope, etc). This is a one-time cost since a similar setup can be used for many different circuits. A more difficult issue is how to specify the target function of a circuit, and how to compute the error metric. For example, in the simple square-root circuit, one might be more concerned about behavior in a particular region, or perhaps along the entire range of operation. Care must be taken to ensure that the combination of the target model and the error metric accurately describes the desired behavior of the circuit. The existence of an automated parameter setting mechanism opens up a new avenue for producing accurate analog circuits. The goal of accurately computing a function differs from the approach of providing a cheap (simple) circuit which loosely approximates the function [Gilbert 68] [Mead 89]. By providing appropriate parameters in the design of a circuit, we can ensure that the desired function is in the domain of possible circuit behaviors (given expected manufacturing tolerances). Thus we define the domain of the circuit in anticipation of the parameter setting apparatus. The optimization methods will then be able to find the best solution in the domain, which could potentially be accurate to a high degree of precision. 6 The Goal-based Engineering Design Technique The results of our optimization experiments suggest the adoption of a comprehensive Goal-based Engineering Design Technique that directly affects how we design and test chips. Our results change the types of circuits we will try to build. The optimization techniques allow us to aggresively design and build ambitious circuits and more frequently have them work as expected, meeting our design goals. As a corollary, we can confidently attack larger and more interesting problems. The technique is composed of the following four steps: 1) goal-setting: identify the target function, or behavioral goals, of the design 2) circuit design: design the circuit with "knobs" (adjustable parameters) in it, attempting to make sure desired (target) circuit behavior is in gamut of the actual circuit, given expected manufacturing variation and device characteristics. 3) optimization plan: devise optimization strategy to explore parameter settings. This includes capabilities such as a digital computer to control the optimization, and computer-driven instruments which can apply voltages/currents to the chip and measure voltage/current outputs. 4) optimization: use optimization procedure to select parameters to minimize deviation of actual circuit performance from the target function the optimization may make use of special knowledge about the circuit, such as "I know that this knob has effect x," or interaction, such as "I know that this is a good region, so explore here." 795 796 Kirk, Fleischer, Watts, and Barr Design Goals Circuit Design Circuit Optimization Plan 1-------. The goal-setting process produces design goals that influence both the circuit design and the form of the optimization plan. It is important to produce a match between the design of the circuit and the plan for optimizing its parameters. Acknowledgements Many thanks to Carver Mead for ideas, encouragement, and support for this project. Thanks also to John Lemoncheck for help getting our physical setup together. Thanks to Hewlett-Packard for equipment donation. This work was supported in part by an AT&T Bell Laboratories Ph.D. Fellowship. Additional support was provided by NSF (ASC-89-20219). All opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agencies. References [Fleischer 90] Fleischer, K., J. Platt, and A. Barr, "An Approach to Solving the Parameter Setting Problem," IEEE/ ACM 23rd IntI Conf on System Sciences, January 1990. [Gilbert 68] Gilbert, B., "A Precise Four-Quadrant Multiplier with Sub-nanosecond Response," IEEE Journal of Solid-State Circuits, SC-3:365, 1968. [Gill 81] Gill, P. E., W. Murray, and M. H. Wright, "Practical Optimization," Academic Press, 1981. [Lyon 88] Lyon, R. A., and C. A. Mead, "An Analog Electronic Cochlea," IEEE Trans. Acous. Speech, and Signal Proc., Volume 36, Number 7, July, 1988, pp. 1119-1134. [Mead 89] Mead, C. A., "Analog VLSI and Neural Systems," Addison-Wesley, 1989. [Platt 89] Platt, J. C., "Constrained Optimization for Neural Networks and Computer Graphics," Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technology, Caltech-CS-TR-89-07, June, 1989. [Press 86] Press, W., Flannery, B., Teukolsky, S., Vetterling, W ., "Numerical Recipes: the Art of Scientific Computing," Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986.
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Learning Chordal Markov Networks by Constraint Satisfaction Jukka Corander?? University of Helsinki Finland Tomi Janhunen?? Aalto University Finland Jussi Rintanen??? Aalto University Finland Henrik Nyman? ? Akademi University Abo Finland Johan Pensar? ? Akademi University Abo Finland Abstract We investigate the problem of learning the structure of a Markov network from data. It is shown that the structure of such networks can be described in terms of constraints which enables the use of existing solver technology with optimization capabilities to compute optimal networks starting from initial scores computed from the data. To achieve efficient encodings, we develop a novel characterization of Markov network structure using a balancing condition on the separators between cliques forming the network. The resulting translations into propositional satisfiability and its extensions such as maximum satisfiability, satisfiability modulo theories, and answer set programming, enable us to prove optimal certain networks which have been previously found by stochastic search. 1 Introduction Graphical models (GMs) represent the backbone of the generic statistical toolbox for encoding dependence structures in multivariate distributions. Using Markov networks or Bayesian networks conditional independencies between variables can be readily communicated and used for various computational purposes. The development of the statistical theory of GMs is largely set by the seminal works of Darroch et al. [1] and Lauritzen and Wermuth [2]. Although various approaches have been developed to generalize the theory of graphical models to allow for modeling of more complex dependence structures, Markov networks and Bayesian networks are still widely used in applications ranging from genetic mapping of diseases to machine learning and expert systems. Bayesian learning of undirected GMs, also known as Markov random fields, from databases has attained a considerable interest, both in the statistical and computer science literature [3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. The cardinality and complex topology of GM space pose difficulties with respect to both the computational complexity of the learning task and the reliability of reaching representative model structures. Solutions to these problems have been proposed in earlier work. Della Pietra et al. [10] present a greedy local search algorithm for Markov network learning and apply it to discovering word morphology. Lee et al. [11] reduce the learning problem to a convex optimization problem that is solved by gradient descent. Related methods have been investigated later [12, 13]. ? This work was funded by the Academy of Finland, project 251170. Funded by ERC grant 239784. ? Also affiliated with the Helsinki Institute of Information Technology, Finland. ? Also affiliated with Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia. ? ? Akademi University, as part of the grant for the Center of This work was funded by the Foundation of Abo Excellence in Optimization and Systems Engineering. ? 1 Certain types of stochastic search methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or simulated annealing, can be proven to be consistent with respect to the identification of a structure maximizing posterior probability [4, 5, 6, 7]. However, convergence of such methods towards the areas associated with high posterior probabilities may still be slow when the number of nodes increases [4, 6]. In addition, it is challenging to guarantee that the identified model indeed truly represents the global optimum since the consistency of MCMC estimates is by definition a limit result. To the best of our knowledge, strict constraint-based search methods have not been previously applied in learning of Markov random fields. In this article, we formalize the structure of Markov networks using constraints at a general level. This enables the development of reductions from the structure learning problem to propositional satisfiability (SAT) [14] and its generalizations such as maximum satisfiability (MAXSAT) [15], and satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) [16], as well as answer-set programming (ASP) [17]. A main novelty is the recognition of maximum weight spanning trees of the clique graph by a condition on the cardinalities of occurrences of variables in cliques and separators, which we call the balancing condition. The article is structured as follows. We first review some details of Markov networks and the respective structure learning problem in Section 2. To enable efficient encodings of Markov network learning as a constraint satisfaction problem, in Section 3 we establish a new characterization of the separators of a Markov network based on a balancing condition. In Section 4, we provide a high-level description how the learning problem can be expressed using constraints and sketch the actual translations into propositional satisfiability (SAT) and its generalizations. We have implemented these translations and conducted experiments to study the performance of existing solver technology on structure learning problems in Section 5 using two widely used datasets [18]. Finally, some conclusions and possibilities for further research in this area are presented in Section 6. 2 Structure Learning for Markov Networks An undirected graph G = hV, Ei consists of a set of nodes V which represents a set of random variables and a set of undirected edges E ? {{n, n0 } | n, n0 ? V and n 6= n0 }. A path in a graph is a sequence of nodes such that every two consecutive nodes are connected by an edge. Two sets of nodes A and B are said to be separated by a third set of nodes D if every path between a node in A and a node in B contains at least one node in D. An undirected graph is chordal if for all paths n0 , . . . nk with k ? 4 and n0 = nk there exist two nodes ni , nj in the path connected by an edge such that j 6= i ? 1. A clique in a graph is a set of nodes c such that every two nodes in it are connected by an edge. In addition, there may not exist a set of nodes c0 such that c ? c0 and every two nodes in c0 are connected by an edge. Given the set of cliques C in a chordal graph, the set of separators S can be obtained through intersections of the cliques ordered in terms of a junction tree [19], this operation is considered thoroughly in Section 3. A Markov network is defined as a pair consisting of a graph G and a joint distribution PV over the variables in V . The graph specifies the dependence structure of the variables and PV factorizes according to G (see below). Given G it is possible to ascertain if two sets of variables A and B are conditionally independent given another set of variables D, due to the global Markov property A ?? B | D, if D separates A from B. For a Markov network with a chordal graph G, the probability of a joint outcome x factorizes as Q Pci (xci ) PV (x) = Qci ?C . si ?S Psi (xsi ) Following this factorization the marginal likelihood of a dataset X given a Markov network with a chordal graph G can be written Q Pci (Xci ) . P (X|G) = Qci ?C si ?S Psi (Xsi ) By a suitable choice of prior distribution, the terms Pci (Xci ) and Psi (Xsi ) can be calculated analytically. Let a denote an arbitrary clique or separator containing the variables Xa whose outcome (j) (j) space has the cardinality k. Further, let na denote the number of occurrences where Xa = xa in 2 the dataset Xa . Now assign the Dirichlet(?a1 , . . . , ?ak ) distribution as prior over the probabilities (j) Pa (Xa = xa ) = ?j , determining the distribution Pa (Xa ). Now Pa (Xa ) can be calculated as Z Y k (j) Pa (Xa ) = (?j )na ? ?a (?)d? ? j=1 where ?a (?) is the density function of the Dirichlet prior distribution. By the standard properties of the Dirichlet integral, Pa (Xa ) can be reduced to the form Pa (Xa ) = (j) k ?(?) Y ?(na + ?aj ) ?(na + ?) j=1 ?(?aj ) where ?(?) denotes the gamma function and ?= k X ?aj and j=1 na = k X n(j) a . j=1 When dealing with the marginal likelihood of a dataset it is most often necessary to use the logarithmic value log P (X|G). Introducing the notations v(ci ) = log Pci (Xci ) the logarithmic value of the marginal likelihood can be written X X X X log P (X|G) = log Pci (Xci ) ? log Psi (Xsi ) = v(ci ) ? v(si ). (1) ci ?C si ?S ci ?C si ?S The learning problem is to find a graph G that optimizes the posterior distribution P (X|G)P (G) . P (G|X) = P G?G P (X|G)P (G) Here G denotes the set of all graphs under consideration and P (G) is the prior probability assigned to G. In the case where a uniform prior is used for the graphs the optimization problem reduces to finding the graph with the largest marginal likelihood. 3 Fundamental Properties and Characterization Results In this section, we point out some properties of chordal graphs and clique graphs that can be utilized in the encodings of the learning problem. In particular, we develop a characterization of maximum weight spanning trees in terms of a balancing condition on separators. The separators needed for determining the score (1) of a candidate Markov network are defined as follows. Given the cliques, we can form the clique graph, in which the nodes are the cliques and there is an edge between two nodes if the corresponding cliques have a non-empty intersection. We label each of the edges with this intersection and consider the cardinality of the label as its weight. The separators are the edge labels of a maximum weight spanning tree of the clique graph. Maximum weight spanning trees of arbitrary graphs can be found in polynomial time by reducing the problem to finding minimum weight spanning trees. This reduction consists of negating all the edge weights and then using any of the polynomial time algorithms for the latter problem [20]. There may be several maximum weight spanning trees, but they induce exactly the same separators, and they only differ in terms of which pairs of cliques induce the separators. To restrict the search space we can observe that a chordal graph with n nodes has at most n maximal cliques [19]. This gives an immediate upper bound on the number of cliques chosen to build a Markov network, which can be encoded as a simple cardinality constraint. 3.1 Characterization of Maximum Weight Spanning Trees To simplify the encoding of maximum weight spanning trees (and forests) of chordal clique graphs, we introduce the notion of balanced spanning trees (respectively, forests), and show that these two concepts coincide for chordal graphs. Then separators can be identified more effectively: rather than encoding an algorithm for finding maximum-weight spanning trees as constraints, it is sufficient to select a subset of the edges of the clique graph that is acyclic and satisfies the balancing condition expressible as a cardinality constraint over occurrences of nodes in cliques and separators. 3 Definition 1 (Balancing) A spanning tree (or forest) of a clique graph is balanced if for every node n, the number of cliques containing n is one higher than the number of labeled edges containing n. While in the following we state many results for spanning trees only, they can be straightforwardly generalized to spanning forests as well (in case the Markov networks are disconnected.) Lemma 2 For any clique graph, all its balanced spanning trees have the same weight. Proof: This holds in general because the balancing condition requires exactly the same number of occurrences of any node in the separator edges for any balanced spanning tree, and the weight is defined as the sum of the occurrences of nodes in the edge labels.  Lemma 3 ([21, 22]) Any maximum weight spanning tree of the clique graph is a junction tree, and hence satisfies the running intersection property: for every pair of nodes c and c0 , (c ? c0 ) ? c00 for all nodes c00 on the unique path between c and c0 . Lemma 4 Let T = hV, ET i be a maximum weight spanning tree of the clique graph hV, Ei of a connected chordal graph. Then T is balanced. Proof: We order the tree by choosing an arbitrary clique as the root and by assigning a depth to all nodes according to their distance from the root node. The rest of the proof proceeds by induction on the height of subtrees starting from the leaf nodes as the base case. The induction hypothesis says that all subtrees satisfy the balancing condition. The base cases are trivial: each leaf node (clique) trivially satisfies the balancing condition, as there are no separators to consider. In the inductive cases, we have a clique c at depth d, connected to one or more subtrees rooted at neighboring cliques c1 , . . . , ck at depth d + 1, with the subtrees satisfying the balancing condition. We show that the tree consisting of the clique c, the labeled edges connecting c respectively to cliques c1 , . . . , ck , and the subtrees rooted at c1 , . . . , ck , satisfies the balancing condition. First note that by Lemma 3, any maximum weight spanning tree of the clique graph is a junction tree and hence satisfies the running intersection property, meaning that for any two cliques c1 and c2 in the tree, every clique on the unique path connecting them includes c1 ? c2 . We have to show that the subtree rooted at c is balanced, given that its subtrees are balanced. We show that the balancing condition is satisfied for each node separately. So let n be one of the nodes in the original graph. Now each of the subtrees rooted at some ci has either 0 occurrences of n, or ki ? 1 occurrences in the cliques and ki ? 1 occurrences in the edge labels, because by the induction hypothesis the balancing condition is satisfied. Four cases arise: 1. The node n does not occur in any of the subtrees. Now the balancing condition is trivially satisfied for the subtree rooted at c, because n either does not occur in c, or it occurs in c but does not occur in the label of any of the edges to the subtrees. 2. The node n occurs in more than one subtree. Since any maximum weight spanning tree is a junction tree by Lemma 3, n must occur also in c and in the labels of the edges between c and the cliques in which the subtrees with n are rooted. Let s1 , . . . , sj be the numbers of occurrences of n in the edge labels in the subtrees with at least one occurrence of n, and t1 , . . . , tj the numbers of occurrences of n in the cliques in the same subtrees. By the induction hypothesis, these subtrees are balanced, and hence ti ? si = 1 for all Pk i ? {1, . . . , j}. The subtree rooted at c now has 1 + i=1 ti occurrences of n in the nodes Pj (once in c itself and then the subtrees) and j + i=1 si occurrences in the edge labels, where the j occurrences are in the edges between c and the j subtrees. 4 We establish the balancing condition through a sequence of equalities. The first and the last expression are the two sides of the condition. Pj Pk (1 + i=1 ti ) ? (j + i=1 si ) Pj = 1 ? j + i=1 (ti ? si ) reordering the terms =1?j+j since ti ? si = 1 for every subtree =1 Hence also the subtree rooted at c is balanced. 3. The node n occurs in one subtree and in c. Let i be the index of the subtree in which n occurs. Since any maximum weight spanning tree is a junction tree by Lemma 3, n must occur also in the clique ci . Hence n occurs in the label of the edge from ci to c. Since the subtree is balanced, the new graph obtained by adding the clique c and the edge with a label containing n is also balanced. Further, adding all the other subtrees that do not contain n will not affect the balancing of n. 4. The node n occurs in one subtree but not in c. Since there are n occurrences of n in any of the other subtrees, in c, or in the edge labels between c and any of the subtrees, the balancing condition holds. This completes the induction step and consequently, the whole spanning tree is balanced.  Lemma 5 Assume T = hV, EB i is a spanning tree of the clique graph GC = hV, Ei of a chordal graph that satisfies the balancing condition. Then T is a maximum weight spanning tree of GC . Proof: Let TM be one of the spanning trees of GC with the maximum weight w. By Lemma 4, this maximum weight spanning tree is balanced. By Lemma 2, T has the same weight w as TM . Hence also T is a maximum weight spanning tree of GC .  Theorem 6 For any clique graph of a chordal graph, any of its subgraphs is a maximum weight spanning tree if and only if it is a balanced acyclic subgraph. 4 Representation as Constraints In this section we first show how the structure learning problem of Markov networks is cast as a constraint satisfaction problem, and then formalize it concretely in the language of propositional logic, as directly supported by SMT solvers and easily translatable into conjunctive normal form as used by SAT and MAXSAT solvers. In ASP slightly different rule-based formulations are used. The learning problem is formalized as follows. The goal is to find a balanced spanning tree (cf. Definition 1) for a set C of cliques forming a Markov network and the set S of separators induced by the tree structure. P In addition, C P and S are supposed to be optimal in the sense of (1), i.e., the overall score v(C, S) = c?C v(c) ? s?S v(s) is maximized. The individual score v(c) for any set of nodes c describes how well it reflects the interdependencies of the variables in c in the data. Definition 7 Let V be a set of nodes representing random variables and v : 2V ? R a scoring function. A solution to the Markov network learning problem is a set of cliques C = {c1 , . . . , ck } satisfying the following requirements viewed as abstract constraints: 1. Every node is included in at least one of the chosen cliques in C, i.e., Sk i=1 ci =V. 2. Cliques in C are maximal, i.e., (a) for every c, c0 ? C, if c ? c0 , then c = c0 ; and S (b) for every c ? V , if edges(c) ? c0 ?C edges(c0 ), then c ? c0 for some c0 ? C where edges(c) = {{n, n0 } ? c | n 6= n0 } is defined for each c ? V . S 3. The graph hV, Ei with the set of edges E = c?C edges(c) is chordal. 5 4. The set C has a balanced spanning tree labeled by a set of separators S = {s1 , . . . , sl }. Moreover, the solution is optimal if it maximizes the overall score v(C, S). The encodings of basic graph properties (conditions 1 and 2 above) are presented Section 4.1. The more complex properties (3 and 4) are addressed in Sections 4.2 and 4.3. 4.1 Graph Properties We assume that clique candidates ? which are the non-empty subsets of V ? are indexed from 1 to 2|V | . We often identify a clique with its index. Each clique candidate c ? V has an associated score v(c). To encode the search space for Markov networks, we introduce, for every clique candidate c, a propositional variable xc denoting that c is part of the learned network. We also introduce propositional variables en,m that represent edges {n, m} that are in at least one chosen clique.1 To formalize condition 1 of Definition 7, for every node n we have the constraint xc1 ? ? ? ? ? xck (2) where c1 , . . . , ck are all cliques c with n ? c. To satisfy the maximality condition 2(a), we require that if a clique is chosen, then at least one edge in each of its super-cliques is not chosen. We first make the edges of the chosen cliques explicit by the next constraint for all {n, m} ? V and cliques c1 , . . . , ck such that {n, m} ? ci . en,m ? (xc1 ? ? ? ? ? xck ) (3) Then for every clique candidate c = {n1 , . . . , nk } and every node n ? V \c we have the constraint xc ? (?en1 ,n ? ? ? ? ? ?enk ,n ) (4) where en1 ,n , . . . , enk ,n represent all additional edges that would turn c ? {n} into a clique. For each pair of clique candidates c and c0 such that c ? c0 , ?xc ? ?xc0 is a logical consequence of the constraints (4). They are useful for strengthening the inferences made by SAT solvers. For condition 2(b) we use propositional variables zc which mean that either c or one of its supercliques is chosen, and propositional variables wc which mean that all edges of c are chosen. For 2-element cliques c = {n1 , n2 } we have wc ? en1 ,n2 . (5) For larger cliques c we have wc ? wc1 ? ? ? ? ? wck (6) where c1 , . . . , ck are all subcliques of c with one less node than c. Hence wc is true iff all edges of c are chosen. If all edges of a clique are chosen, then the clique itself or one of its super-cliques must be chosen. If c1 , . . . , ck are all cliques that extend c by one node, this is encoded as follows. wc ? zc zc ? (xc ? zc1 ? ? ? ? ? zck ) 4.2 (7) (8) Chordality We use a straightforward encoding of the chordality condition (3) of Definition 7. The idea is to generate constraints corresponding to every k ? 4 element subset S = {n1 , . . . , nk } of V . Let us consider all cycles these nodes could form in the graph hV, Ei of condition 3 in Definition 7. A cycle starts from a given node, goes through all other nodes, with (undirected) edges between two consecutive nodes, and ends in the starting node. The number of constraints can be reduced by two observations. First, the same cycle could be generated from different starting nodes, e.g., cycles n1 , n2 , n3 , n4 , n1 and n2 , n3 , n4 , n1 , n2 are the same. Second, generating the same cycle in two opposite directions, as in n1 , n2 , n3 , n4 , n1 and n1 , n4 , n3 , n2 , n1 , is unnecessary. To avoid 1 As the edges are undirected, we limit to en,m such that the ordering of n and m according to some fixed ordering is increasing, i.e., n < m. Under this assumption, em,n for n < m denotes en,m . 6 redundant cycle constraints, we arbitrarily fix the starting node and require that the index of the second node in the cycle is lower than the index of the second last node. These restrictions guarantee that every cycle associated with S is considered exactly once. Now, the chordality constraint says that if there is an edge between every pair of consecutive nodes in n1 , . . . , nk , n1 , then there also has to be an edge between at least one pair of two non-consecutive nodes. In the case k = 4, for instance, this leads to formulas of the form en1 ,n2 ? en2 ,n3 ? en3 ,n4 ? en4 ,n1 ? en1 ,n3 ? en2 ,n4 . (9) This encoding of chordality constraints is exponential in |V | and therefore not scalable to large numbers of nodes. However, the datasets considered in Section 5 have only 6 or 8 variables, and in these cases the exponentiality is not an issue. 4.3 Separators Separators for pairs c and c0 of clique candidates can be formalized as propositional variables sc,c0 , meaning that c ? c0 is a separator and there is an edge in the spanning tree between c and c0 labeled by c ? c0 . The corresponding constraint is sc,c0 ? xc ? xc0 . (10) The lack of the converse implication formalizes the choice of the spanning tree, i.e., s can be false even if xc and xc0 are true. The remaining constraints on separators fall into two cases. c,c0 First, we have cardinality constraints encoding the balancing condition (cf. Section 3.1): each variable occurs in the chosen cliques one more time than it occurs in the separators which label the spanning tree. Cardinality constraints are natively supported by some constraint solvers, or they can be reduced to Boolean constraints [23]. Second, the graph formed by the cliques with the separators as edges must be acyclic. We encode this through an inductive definition of trees: repeatedly remove leaf nodes, i.e., nodes with at most one neighbor, until all nodes have been removed. When applying this definition to a cyclic graph, some nodes will remain in the end. We define the leaf level for each node. A node is a level 0 leaf iff it has 0 or 1 neighbors in the graph. A node is a level l + 1 leaf iff all its neighbors except possibly one are level j ? l leaves. This definition is directly expressible as Boolean constraints. A graph with m nodes is acyclic iff all its nodes are level b m 2 c leaves. 5 Experimental Evaluation The constraints described in Section 4 can be alternatively expressed as MAXSAT, SMT, or ASP problems. We have used respective solvers in computing optimal Markov networks for datasets from the literature. The test runs were with an Intel Xeon E3-1230 CPU running at 3.20 GHz. 1. For the MAXSAT encodings, we tried out SAT4J (version 2.3.2) [24] and PWBO (version 2.2) [25]. The latter was run in its default configuration as well as in the UB configuration. 2. For SMT, we used the O PTI M ATH SAT solver (version 5) [26]. 3. For ASP, we used the C LASP (version 2.1.3) [27] and HC LASP (also v. 2.1.3) [28] solvers. The latter allows declaratively specifying search heuristics. We also tried the LP2NORMAL tool that reduces cardinality constraints to more basic constraints [29]. We consider two datasets, one containing risk factors in heart diseases and the other variables related to economical behavior [18], to be abbreviated by heart and econ in the sequel. For heart, the globally optimal network has been verified via (expensive) exhaustive enumeration. For econ, however, exhaustive enumeration is impractical due to the extremely large search space, and consequently the optimality of the Markov network found by stochastic search in [4] had been open until now. For both datasets, we computed the respective score file that specifies the score of each clique candidate, i.e., the log-value of its potential function, and the list of variables involved in that clique. The score files were then translated to be run with the different solvers. The MAXSAT and ASP solvers only support integer scores obtained by multiplying the original scores by 1000 and rounding. The SMT solver OptiMathSAT used the original floating point scores. The results are given in Table 1. The heart data involves 6 variables giving rise to 26 = 64 clique candidates in total and a search space of 215 undirected networks of which a subset are decomposable. For instance, the ASP solver 7 O PTI M ATH SAT PWBO (default) PWBO (UB) SAT4J LP2NORMAL+C LASP C LASP HC LASP heart 74 158 63 28 111 5.6 1.6 econ 310 ? 103 heart 3930 kB 3120 kB 3120 kB 3120 kB 8120 kB 197 kB 203 kB econ 139 MB 130 MB 130 MB 130 MB 1060 MB 4.2 MB 4.2 MB Table 1: Summary of results: Runtimes in seconds and sizes of solver input files HC LASP traversed a considerably smaller search space that consisted of 26651 (partial) networks. This illustrates the power of branch-and-bound type algorithms behind the solvers and their ability to prune the search space. On the other hand, the econ dataset is based on 8 variables giving rise to a much larger search space 228 . We were able to solve this instance optimally with one solver only, HC LASP, which allows for a more refined control of the search heuristic: we forced HC LASP to try cliques in an ascending order by size, with greatest cliques first. This allowed us to find the global optimum in about 14 hours, after which 3 days is spent on the proof of optimality. 6 Conclusions Boolean constraint methods appear not to have been earlier applied to learning of undirected Markov networks. We have introduced a generic approach in which the learning problem is expressed in terms of constraints on variables that determine the structure of the learned network. The related problem of structure learning of Bayesian networks has been addressed by general-purpose combinatorial search methods, including MAXSAT [30] and a constraint-programming solver with a linear-programming solver as a subprocedure [31, 32]. We introduced explicit translations of the generic constraints to the languages of MAXSAT, SMT and ASP, and demonstrated their use through existing solver technology. Our method thus opens up a novel venue of research to further develop and optimize the use of such technology for network learning. A wide variety of possibilities does exist also for using these methods in combination with stochastic or heuristic search. References [1] J. N. Darroch, Steffen L. Lauritzen, and T. P. Speed. Markov fields and log-linear interaction models for contingency tables. The Annals of Statistics, 8:522?539, 1980. [2] Steffen L. Lauritzen and Nanny Wermuth. Graphical models for associations between variables, some of which are qualitative and some quantitative. The Annals of Statistics, 17:31?57, 1989. [3] Jukka Corander. Bayesian graphical model determination using decision theory. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 85:253?266, 2003. [4] Jukka Corander, Magnus Ekdahl, and Timo Koski. Parallel interacting MCMC for learning of topologies of graphical models. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 17:431?456, 2008. [5] Petros Dellaportas and Jonathan J. Forster. Markov chain Monte Carlo model determination for hierarchical and graphical log-linear models. Biometrika, 86:615?633, 1999. [6] Paolo Giudici and Robert Castello. Improving Markov chain Monte Carlo model search for data mining. Machine Learning, 50:127?158, 2003. [7] Paolo Giudici and Peter J. Green. Decomposable graphical Gaussian model determination. Biometrika, 86:785?801, 1999. [8] Mikko Koivisto and Kismat Sood. Exact Bayesian structure discovery in Bayesian networks. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:549?573, 2004. [9] David Madigan and Adrian E. Raftery. Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam?s window. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89:1535?1546, 1994. 8 [10] Stephen Della Pietra, Vincent Della Pietra, and John Lafferty. Inducing features of random fields. IEEE Trans. on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 19(4):380?393, 1997. [11] Su-In Lee, Varun Ganapathi, and Daphne Koller. Efficient structure learning of Markov networks using L1 -regularization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 817?824. MIT Press, 2006. [12] M. Schmidt, A. Niculescu-Mizil, and K. Murphy. Learning graphical model structure using L1 -regularization paths. In Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, page 1278. AAAI Press / MIT Press, 2007. [13] Holger H?ofling and Robert Tibshirani. Estimation of sparse binary pairwise Markov networks using pseudo-likelihoods. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:883?906, 2009. [14] Armin Biere, Marijn J. H. Heule, Hans van Maaren, and Toby Walsh, editors. Handbook of Satisfiability. IOS Press, 2009. [15] Chu Min Li and Felip Many`a. MaxSAT, Hard and Soft Constraints, chapter 19, pages 613?631. In Biere et al. [14], 2009. [16] Clark Barrett, Roberto Sebastiani, Sanjit A. Seshia, and Cesare Tinelli. Satisfiability Modulo Theories, chapter 26, pages 825?885. In Biere et al. [14], 2009. [17] Gerhard Brewka, Thomas Eiter, and Miroslaw Truszczynski. Answer set programming at a glance. Commun. ACM, 54(12):92?103, 2011. [18] Joe Whittaker. Graphical Models in Applied Multivariate Statistics. Wiley Publishing, 1990. [19] Martin C. Golumbic. Algorithmic Graph Theory and Perfect Graphs. Academic Press, 1980. [20] Ronald L. Graham and Pavol Hell. On the history of the minimum spanning tree problem. Annals of the History of Computing, 7(1):43?57, 1985. [21] Yukio Shibata. On the tree representation of chordal graphs. Journal of Graph Theory, 12(3):421?428, 1988. [22] Finn V. Jensen and Frank Jensen. Optimal junction trees. In Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-94), pages 360?366, 1994. [23] Carsten Sinz. Towards an optimal CNF encoding of Boolean cardinality constraints. In Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming ? CP 2005, number 3709 in Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 827?831. Springer-Verlag, 2005. [24] Daniel Le Berre and Anne Parrain. The Sat4j library, release 2.2 system description. Journal on Satisfiability, Boolean Modeling and Computation, 7:59?64, 2010. [25] Ruben Martins, Vasco Manquinho, and In?es Lynce. Parallel search for maximum satisfiability. AI Communications, 25:75?95, 2012. [26] Roberto Sebastiani and Silvia Tomasi. Optimization in SMT with LA(Q) cost functions. In Automated Reasoning, volume 7364 of LNCS, pages 484?498. Springer-Verlag, 2012. [27] Martin Gebser, Benjamin Kaufmann, and Torsten Schaub. Conflict-driven answer set solving: From theory to practice. Artif. Intell., 187:52?89, 2012. [28] Martin Gebser, Benjamin Kaufmann, Ram?on Otero, Javier Romero, Torsten. Schaub, and Philipp Wanko. Domain-specific heuristics in answer set programming. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. AAAI Press, 2013. [29] Tomi Janhunen and Ilkka Niemel?a. Compact translations of non-disjunctive answer set programs to propositional clauses. In Gelfond Festschrift, Vol. 6565 of LNCS, pages 111?130. Springer-Verlag, 2011. [30] James Cussens. Bayesian network learning by compiling to weighted MAX-SAT. In Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 105?112, 2008. [31] James Cussens. Bayesian network learning with cutting planes. In Proceedings of the TwentySeventh Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-11), pages 153?160. AUAI Press, 2011. [32] Mark Bartlett and James Cussens. Advances in Bayesian network learning using integer programming. In Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2013), pages 182?191. AUAI Press, 2013. 9
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Bayesian Estimation of Latently-grouped Parameters in Undirected Graphical Models David Page Dept of BMI, University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 53706 [email protected] Jie Liu Dept of CS, University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 53706 [email protected] Abstract In large-scale applications of undirected graphical models, such as social networks and biological networks, similar patterns occur frequently and give rise to similar parameters. In this situation, it is beneficial to group the parameters for more efficient learning. We show that even when the grouping is unknown, we can infer these parameter groups during learning via a Bayesian approach. We impose a Dirichlet process prior on the parameters. Posterior inference usually involves calculating intractable terms, and we propose two approximation algorithms, namely a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with auxiliary variables and a Gibbs sampling algorithm with ?stripped? Beta approximation (Gibbs SBA). Simulations show that both algorithms outperform conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Gibbs SBA?s performance is close to Gibbs sampling with exact likelihood calculation. Models learned with Gibbs SBA also generalize better than the models learned by MLE on real-world Senate voting data. 1 Introduction Undirected graphical models, a.k.a. Markov random fields (MRFs), have many real-world applications such as social networks and biological networks. In these large-scale networks, similar kinds of relations can occur frequently and give rise to repeated occurrences of similar parameters, but the grouping pattern among the parameters is usually unknown. For a social network example, suppose that we collect voting data over the last 20 years from a group of 1,000 people who are related to each other through different types of relations (such as family, co-workers, classmates, friends and so on), but the relation types are usually unknown. If we use a binary pairwise MRF to model the data, each binary node denotes one person?s vote, and two nodes are connected if the two people are linked in the social network. Eventually we want to estimate the pairwise potential functions on edges, which can provide insights about how the relations between people affect their decisions. This can be done via standard maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), but the latent grouping pattern among the parameters is totally ignored, and the model can be overparametrized. Therefore, two questions naturally arise. Can MRF parameter learners automatically identify these latent parameter groups during learning? Will this further abstraction make the model generalize better, analogous to the lessons we have learned from hierarchical modeling [9] and topic modeling [5]? This paper shows that it is feasible and potentially beneficial to identify the latent parameter groups during MRF parameter learning. Specifically, we impose a Dirichlet process prior on the parameters to accommodate our uncertainty about the number of the parameter groups. Posterior inference can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo with proper approximations. We propose two approximation algorithms, a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with auxiliary variables and a Gibbs sampling algorithm with stripped Beta approximation (Gibbs SBA). Algorithmic details are provided in Section 3 after we review related parameter estimation methods in Section 2. In Section 4, we evaluate our Bayesian estimates and the classical MLE on different models, and both algorithms outperform classical MLE. The Gibbs SBA algorithm performs very close to the Gibbs sampling algorithm with exact likelihood calculation. Models learned with Gibbs SBA also generalize better than the models learned by MLE on real-world Senate voting data in Section 5. We finally conclude in Section 6. 1 2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bayesian Estimation for MRFs Let X = {0, 1, ..., m ? 1} be a discrete space. Suppose that we have an MRF defined on a random vector X ? X d described by an undirected graph G(V, E) with d nodes in the node set V and r edges in the edge set E. The probability of one sample x from the MRF parameterized by ? is P (x; ?) = P? (x; ?)/Z(?), (1) Q where Z(?) is the partition function. P? (x; ?)= c?C(G) ?c (x; ? c ) is some unnormalized measure, and C(G) is some subset of cliques in G, and ?c is the potential function defined on the clique c parameterized by ? c . In this paper, we consider binary pairwise MRFs for simplicity, i.e. C(G)=E and m=2. We also assume that each potential function ?c is parameterized by one parameter ?c , I(X 6=X ) namely ?c (X; ?c )=?c I(Xu =Xv ) (1??c ) u v where I(Xu =Xv ) indicates whether the two nodes u and v connected by edge c take the same value, and 0<?c <1, ?c=1, ...,r. Thus, ?={?1 , ..., ?r }. Suppose that we have n independent samples X={x1 , ..., xn } from (1), and we want to estimate ?. Maximum Likelihood Estimate: The MLE of ? maximizes the log-likelihood function L(?|X) which is concave w.r.t. ?. Therefore, we can use gradient ascent to find the global maximum of the likelihood function and find the MLE of ?. The partial derivative of L(?|X) with respect to ?i Pn 1 j is ?L(?|X) j=1 ?i (x )?E? ?i =EX ?i ?E? ?i where ?i is the sufficient statistic corresponding ??i = n to ?i after we rewrite the density into the exponential family form, and E? ?i is the expectation of ?i with respect to the distribution specified by ?. However the exact computation of E? ?i takes time exponential in the treewidth of G. A few sampling-based methods have been proposed, with different ways of generating particles and computing E? ? from the particles, including MCMCMLE [11, 34], particle-filtered MCMC-MLE [1], contrastive divergence [15] and its variations such as persistent contrastive divergence (PCD) [29] and fast PCD [30]. Note that contrastive divergence is related to pseudo-likelihood [4], ratio matching [17, 16], and together with other MRF parameter estimators [13, 31, 12] can be unified as minimum KL contraction [18]. Bayesian Estimate: Let ?(?) be a prior of ?; then its posterior is P (?|X) ? ?(?)P? (X; ?)/Z(?). The Bayesian estimate of ? is its posterior mean. Exact sampling from P (?|X) is known as doublyintractable for general MRFs [21]. If we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, then MetropolisHastings ratio is a(? ? |?) = ?(? ? )P? (X; ? ? )Q(?|? ? )/Z(? ? ) , ?(?)P? (X; ?)Q(? ? |?)/Z(?) (2) where Q(? ? |?) is some proposal distribution from ? to ? ? , and with probability min{1, a(? ? |?)} we accept the move from ? to ? ? . The real hurdle is that we have to evaluate the intractable Z(?)/Z(? ? ) in the ratio. In [20], M?ller et al. introduce one auxiliary variable y on the same space as x, and the state variable is extended to (?, y). They set the new proposal distribution for the extended state Q(?, y|? ? ,y? )=Q(?|? ? )P? (y; ?)/Z(?) to cancel Z(?)/Z(? ? ) in (2). Therefore by ignoring y, we can generate the posterior samples of ? via Metropolis-Hastings. Technically, this auxiliary variable approach requires perfect sampling [25], but [20] pointed out that other simpler Markov chain methods also work with the proviso that it converges adequately to the equilibrium distribution. 3 Bayesian Parameter Estimation for MRFs with Dirichlet Process Prior In order to model the latent parameter groups, we impose a Dirichlet process prior on ?, which accommodates our uncertainty about the number of groups. Then, the generating model is G ? DP(?0 , G0 ) ?i |G ? G, i = 1, ..., r (3) xj |? ? F (?), j = 1, ..., n, where F (?) is the distribution specified by (1). G0 is the base distribution (e.g. Unif(0, 1)), and ?0 is the concentration parameter. With probability 1.0, the distribution G drawn from DP(?0 , G0 ) is discrete, and places its mass on a countably infinite collection of atoms drawn from G0 . In this model, X={x1 , ..., xn } is observed, and we want to perform posterior inference for ? = (?1 , ?2 , ..., ?r ), 2 and regard its posterior mean as its Bayesian estimate. We propose two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. One is a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with auxiliary variables, as introduced in Section 3.1. The second is a Gibbs sampling algorithm with stripped Beta approximation, as introduced in Section 3.2. In both methods, the state of the Markov chain is specified by two vectors, c and ?. In vector c = (c1 , ..., cr ), ci denotes the group to which ?i belongs. ? = (?1 , ..., ?k ) records the k distinct values in {?1 , ..., ?r } with ?ci = ?i for i = 1, ..., r. This way of specifying the Markov chain is more efficient than setting the state variable directly to be (?1 , ?2 , ..., ?r ) [22]. 3.1 Metropolis-Hastings (MH) with Auxiliary Variables In the MH algorithm (see Algorithm 1), the initial state of the Markov chain is set by performing Kmeans clustering on MLE of ? (e.g. from the PCD algorithm [29]) with K=b?0 ln rc. The Markov chain resembles Algorithm 5 in [22], and it is ergodic. We move the Markov chain forward for T steps. In each step, we update c first and then update ?. We update each element of c in turn; when resampling ci , we fix c?i , all elements in c other than ci . When updating ci , we repeatedly for M times propose a new value c?i according to proposal Q(c?i |ci ) and accept the move with probability min{1, a(c?i |ci )} where a(c?i |ci ) is the MH ratio. After we update every element of c in the current iteration, we draw a posterior sample of ? according to the current grouping c. We iterate T times, and get T posterior samples of ?. Unlike the tractable Algorithm 5 in [22], we need to introduce auxiliary variables to bypass MRF?s intractable likelihood in two places, namely calculating the MH ratio (in Section 3.1.1) and drawing samples of ?|c (in Section 3.1.2). 3.1.1 Calculating Metropolis-Hastings Ratio The MH ratio of proposing a new value c?i for ci according to proposal Q(c?i |ci ) is Algorithm 1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm Input: observed data X={x1 , ..., xn } ? ? ? ?(ci , c?i )P (X; ?.i )Q(ci |ci ) ? (1) , ..., ? ? (T ) ; T samples of ?|X Output: ? a(c?i |ci ) = ? ?(ci , c?i )P (X; ?)Q(ci |ci ) Procedure: ? MLE of ? ? Perform PCD algorithm to get ?, ?(ci |c?i )P? (X; ?.?i )Q(ci |c?i )/Z(?.?i ) = , ? Init. c and ? via K-means on ?; K=b?0 ln rc ?(ci |c?i )P? (X; ?)Q(c?i |ci )/Z(?) for t = 1 to T do where ?.?i is the same as ? except its i-th elefor i = 1 to r do ment is replaced with ?c?i . The conditional prior for l = 1 to M do Draw a candidate c?i from Q(ci |c?i ) ?(c?i |c?i ) is If c?i 6? c, draw a value for ?ci from G0 ( n?i,c Set ci =c?i with prob min{1, a(c?i |ci )} r?1+?0 , if c ? c?i ?(ci =c|c?i )= end for ?0 r?1+?0 , if c 6? c?i end for Draw a posterior sample of ? according to where n?i,c is the number of cj for j6=i and (t) ? current c, and set ??i =?ci for i=1, ..., r. cj =c. We choose proposal Q(ci |ci ) to be the end for conditional prior ?(c?i |c?i ), and the MetropolisHastings ratio can be further simplified as a(c?i |ci )=P? (X; ?.?i )Z(?)/P? (X; ?)Z(?.?i ). However, Z(?)/Z(?.?i ) is intractable. Similar to [20], we introduce an auxiliary variable Z on the same space as X, and the state variable is extended to (c, Z). When proposing a move, we propose c?i first and then propose Z? with proposal P (Z; ?.?i ) ? where ? ? is to cancel the intractable Z(?)/Z(?.?i ). We set the target distribution of Z to be P (Z; ?) some estimate of ? (e.g. from PCD [29]). Then, the MH ratio with the auxiliary variable is a(c?i , Z? |ci , Z) = ? P? (X; ?.? )P? (Z; ?) ? P? (X; ?.? )P? (Z; ?) P? (Z? ; ?) P (Z? ; ?) i i = . ? ? P? (X; ?)P? (Z? ; ?. ) ? P? (X; ?)P? (Z? ; ?.? ) ? P (Z; ?) P (Z; ?) i i Thus, the intractable computation of the MH ratio is replaced by generating particles Z? and Z under ?.?i and ? respectively. Ideally, we should use perfect sampling [25], but it is intractable for general MRFs. As a compromise, we use standard Gibbs sampling with long runs to generate these particles. 3.1.2 Drawing Posterior Samples of ?|c We draw posterior samples of ? under grouping c via the MH algorithm, again following [20]. The state of the Markov chain is ?. The initial state of the Markov chain is set by running PCD [29] with 3 2 parameters tied according to c. The proposal Q(?? |?) is a k-variate Gaussian N (?, ?Q Ik ) where 2 ?Q Ik is the covariance matrix. The auxiliary variable Y is on the same space as X, and the state is extended to (?, Y). The proposal distribution for the extended state variable is Q(?, Y|?? , Y? ) = ? where ? ? is some estimate Q(?|?? )P? (Y; ?)/Z(?). We set the target distribution of Y to be P (Y; ?) of ? such as the estimate from the PCD algorithm [29]. Then, the MH ratio for the extended state is a(?? , Y? |?, Y) = I(?? ? ?) ? P? (X; ?? )P? (Y; ?) P? (Y? ; ?) , ? P? (X; ?)P? (Y? ; ?? ) P? (Y; ?) where I(?? ? ?) indicates that every dimension of ?? is in the domain of G0 . We set the state to be the new values with probability min{1, a(?? , Y? |?, Y)}. We move the Markov chain for S steps, and get S samples of ? by ignoring Y. Eventually we draw one sample from them randomly. 3.2 Gibbs Sampling with Stripped Beta Approximation In the Gibbs sampling algorithm (see Algorithm 2), the initialization of the Markov Algorithm 2 The Gibbs sampling algorithm chain is exactly the same as in the MH alInput: observed data X = {x1 , x2 , ..., xn } gorithm in Section 3.1. The Markov chain ? (1) , ..., ? ? (T ) ; T posterior samples of ?|X Output: ? resembles Algorithm 2 in [22] and it can Procedure: be shown to be ergodic. We move the ? Perform PCD algorithm to get MLE ? Markov chain forward for T steps. In each ? K=b?0 ln rc Init. c and ? via K-means on ?; of the T steps, we update c first and then for t = 1 to T do update ?. When we update c, we fix the for i = 1 to r do values in ?, except we may add one new If current ci is unique in c, remove ?ci from ? value to ? or remove a value from ?. We Update ci according to (4). update each element of c in turn. When If new ci 6?c, draw a value for ?ci and add to ? we update ci , we first examine whether ci end for is unique in c. If so, we remove ?ci from Draw a posterior sample of ? according to current ? first. We then update ci by assigning it (t) c, and set ??i = ?ci for i = 1, ..., r to an existing group or a new group with end for a probability proportional to a product of two quantities, namely ( n?i,c P (X; ?c , ?c?i ), if c ? c?i 0 R P (ci = c|c?i , X, ?c?i ) ? r?1+? (4) ?0 r?1+?0 P (X; ?i , ?c?i ) dG0 (?i ), if c 6? c?i . The first quantity is n?i,c , the number of members already in group c. For starting a new group, the quantity is ?0 . The second quantity is the likelihood of X after assigning ci to the new value c conditional on ?c?i . When considering a new group, we integrate the likelihood w.r.t. G0 . After ci is resampled, it is either set to be an existing group or a new group. If a new group is assigned, we draw a new value for ?ci , and add it to ?. After updating every element of c in the current iteration, we draw a posterior sample of ? under the current grouping c. In total, we run T iterations, and get T posterior samples of ?. This Gibbs sampling algorithm involves two intractable calculations, R namely (i) calculating P (X; ?c , ?c?i ) and P (X; ?i , ?c?i ) dG0 (?i ) in (4) and (ii) drawing posterior samples for ?. We use a stripped Beta approximation in both places, as in Sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2. R 3.2.1 Calculating P (X; ?c , ?c?i ) and P (X; ?i , ?c?i ) dG0 (?i ) in (4) In Formula (4), we evaluate P (X; ?c , ?c?i ) for different ?c values with ?c?i fixed and X = {x1 , x2 , ..., xn } observed. For ease of notation, we rewrite this quantity as a likelihood function of ?i , L(?i |X, ? ?i ), where ? ?i = {?1 , ..., ?i?1 , ?i+1 , ..., ?r } is fixed. Suppose that the edge i connects variables Xu and Xv , and we denote X?uv to be the variables other than Xu and Xv . Then Yn L(?i |X, ? ?i )= P (xju , xjv |xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i )P (xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i ) j=1 Yn Yn ? P (xju , xjv |xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i )P (xj?uv ; ? ?i ) ? P (xju , xjv |xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i ). j=1 j=1 Above we approximate P (xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i ) with P (xj?uv ; ? ?i ) because the density of depends on ? ?i . The term P (xj?uv ; ? ?i ) can be dropped since ? ?i is fixed, and 4 X?uv mostly we only have to consider P (xju , xjv |xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i ). Since ? ?i is fixed and we are conditioning on xj?uv , they together can be regarded as a fixed potential function telling how likely the rest of the graph thinks Xu and Xv should take the same value. Suppose that this fixed potential function (the message from the rest of the network xj?uv ) is parameterized as ?i (0 < ?i < 1). Then n Y P (xju , xjv |xj?uv ; ?i , ? ?i )? j=1 n Y ? I(xju =xjv ) I(xju 6=xjv ) (1??) n P =? j=1 I(xju =xjv ) n P (1??) j=1 I(xju 6=xjv ) (5) j=1 where P ?=?i ?i /{?i ?i +(1??i )(1?? Pn i )}. The end of (5) resembles a Beta distribution with paramn eters ( j=1 I(xju =xjv )+1, n? j=1 I(xju =xjv )+1) except that only part of ?, namely ?i , is random. Now we want to use a Beta distribution to approximate the likelihood with respect to ?i , and we need to remove the contribution of ?i and only consider the contribution from ?i . We choose Beta(bn??i c+1, n?bn??i c+1) where ??i is MLE of ?i (e.g. from the PCD algorithm). This approximation is named the Stripped Beta Approximation. The simulation results in Section 4.2 indicate that the performance of the stripped Beta approximation is very close to using exact calculation. Also this approximation only requires as much computation as in the tractable tree-structure MRFs, and it does not require generating expensive particles as in the MH algorithm with auxiliary variables. R The integral P (X; ?i , ?c?i ) dG0 (?i ) in (4) can be calculated via Monte Carlo approximation. We draw a number of samples of ?i from G0 , and evaluate P (X; ?i , ?c?i ) and take the average. 3.2.2 Drawing Posterior Samples of ?|c The stripped Beta approximation also allows us to draw posterior samples from ?|c approximately. ? = Suppose that there are k groups according to c, and we have estimates for ?, denoted as ? ? ? (?1 , ..., ?k ). We denote the numbers of elements in the k groups by m = {m1 , ..., mk }. For group i, we draw a posterior sample for ?i from Beta(bmi n??i c+1, mi n?bmi n??i c+1). 4 Simulations We investigate the performance of our Bayesian estimators on three models: (i) a tree-MRF, (ii) a small grid-MRF whose likelihood is tractable, and (iii) a large grid-MRF whose likelihood is intractable. We first set the ground truth of the parameters, and then generate training and testing samples. On training data, we apply our grouping-aware Bayesian estimators and two baseline estimators, namely a grouping-blind estimator and an oracle estimator. The grouping-blind estimator does not know groups exist in the parameters, and estimates the parameters in the normal MLE fashion. The oracle estimator knows the ground truth of the groupings, and ties the parameters from the same group and estimates them via MLE. For the tree-MRF, our Bayesian estimator is exact since the likelihood is tractable. For the small grid-MRF, we have three variations for the Bayesian estimator, namely Gibbs sampling with exact likelihood computation, MH with auxiliary variables, and Gibbs sampling with stripped Beta approximation. For the large grid-MRF, the computational burden only allows us to apply Gibbs sampling with stripped Beta approximation. We compare the estimators by three measures. The first is the average absolute error of estimate Pr 1/r i=1 |?i ? ??i | where ??i is the estimate of ?i . The second measure is the log likelihood of the testing data, or the log pseudo-likelihood [4] of the testing data when exact likelihood is intractable. Thirdly, we evaluate how informative the grouping yielded by the Bayesian estimator is. We use the ? and the ground truth grouping variation of information metric [19] between the inferred grouping C ? ? ? we contrast it C, namely VI(C, C). Since VI(C, C) is sensitive to the number of groups in C, ? C) where C ? is a random grouping with its number of groups the same as C. ? Eventually, with VI(C, ? via the VI difference, namely VI(C, ? C)?VI(C, ? C). A larger value of VI difference we evaluate C indicates a more informative grouping yielded by our Bayesian estimator. Because we have one grouping in each of the T MCMC steps, we average the VI difference yielded in each of the T steps. 4.1 Simulations on Tree-structure MRFs For the structure of the MRF, we choose a perfect binary tree of height 12 (i.e. 8,191 nodes and 8,190 edges). We assume there are 25 groups among the 8,190 parameters. The base distribution G0 is Unif(0, 1). We first generate the true parameters for the 25 groups from Unif(0, 1). We then randomly assign each of the 8,190 parameters to one of the 25 groups. We then generate 1,000 5 ? ? 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 6.5 6.0 ?4130 7.0 ?4120 MLE Oracle Bayesian ? 5.5 ? VI Difference ? ? Bayesian 5.0 0.010 ? ? ?4140 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?4150 0.020 ? 0.000 Error of Estimate ? Log?likelihood of Test Data MLE Oracle Bayesian ? ? ?4160 0.030 ? ? 100 200 Training Sample Size (a) 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 Training Sample Size (b) 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Training Sample Size (c) Figure 1: Performance of the grouping-blind MLE, the oracle MLE and our Bayesian estimator on tree-structure MRFs in terms of (a) error of estimate and (b) log-likelihood of test data. Subfigure (c) shows the VI difference between the grouping yielded by our Bayesian estimator and random grouping. testing samples and n training samples (n=100, 200, ..., 1,000). Eventually, we apply the groupingblind MLE, the oracle MLE, and our grouping-aware Bayesian estimator on the training samples. For tree-structure MRFs, both MLE and Bayesian estimation have a closed form solution. For the Bayesian estimator, we set the number of Gibbs sampling steps to be 500 and set ?0 =1.0. We replicate the experiment 500 times, and the averaged results are in Figure 1. Our grouping-aware Bayesian estimator has a lower estimate error and a higher log likelihood of test data, compared with the grouping-blind MLE, demonstrating the ?blessing of abstraction?. Our Bayesian estimator performs worse than oracle MLE, as we expect. In addition, as the training sample size increases, the performance of our Figure 2: Number of groups inferred by the Bayesian Bayesian estimator approaches that of the oracle estimator and its run time. MLE. The VI difference in Figure 1(c) indicates that the Bayesian estimator also recovers the latent grouping to some extent, and the inferred groupings become more and more reliable as the training size increases. The number of groups inferred by the Bayesian estimator and its running time are in Figure 2. We also investigate the asymptotic performance of the estimators and their performance when there are no parameter groups. The results are provided in the supplementary materials. ? ? ? ? 800 900 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 440 ? ? ? 430 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 20 420 ? ? ? Run Time (in seconds) ? ? ? ? 25 410 ? ? ? 450 460 ? Number of Groups Inferred ? ? ? ? ? ? 30 ? ? 400 15 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 1000 200 300 Training Sample Size 4.2 400 500 600 700 Training Sample Size 800 900 1000 Simulations on Small Grid-MRFs For the structure of the MRF, we choose a 4?4 grid with 16 nodes and 24 edges. Exact likelihood is tractable in this small model, which allows us to investigate how good the two types of approximation are. We apply the grouping-blind MLE (the PCD algorithm), the oracle MLE (the PCD algorithm with the parameters from same group tied) and three Bayesian estimators: Gibbs sampling with exact likelihood computation (Gibbs ExactL), Metropolis-Hastings with auxiliary variables (MH AuxVar), and Gibbs sampling with stripped Beta approximation (Gibbs SBA). We assume there are five parameter groups. The base distribution is Unif(0, 1). We first generate the true parameters for the five groups from Unif(0, 1). We then randomly assign each of the 24 parameters to one of the five groups. We then generate 1,000 testing samples and n training samples (n=100, 200, ..., 1,000). For Gibbs ExactL and Gibbs SBA, we set the number of Gibbs sampling steps to be 100. For MH AuxVar, we set the number of MH steps to be 500 and its proposal number M to be 5. The parameter ?Q in Section 3.1.2 is set to be 0.001 and the parameter S is set to be 100. For all three Bayesian estimators, we set ?0 =1.0. We replicate the experiment 50 times, and the averaged results are in Figure 4. (a) Gibbs_ExactL (b) MH_AuxVar (c) Gibbs_SBA Our grouping-aware Bayesian estimators have a lower estimate error and a higher log likelihood of test data, compared with the groupingblind MLE, demonstrating the blessing of abstraction. All three Bayesian estimators perform worse than oracle MLE, as we expect. The Figure 3: The number of groups inferred by VI difference in Figure 4(c) indicates that the Gibbs ExactL, MH AuxVar and Gibbs SBA. Bayesian estimators also recover the grouping to some extent, and the inferred groupings become more and more reliable as the training size increases. In Figure 3, we provide the boxplots of the number of groups inferred by Gibbs ExactL, MH AuxVar and Gibbs SBA. All three methods recover a reasonable number of groups, and Gibbs SBA slightly over-estimates the number of groups. ? # Groups Inferred ? 6 10 10 ? 8 ? ? ? ? ? ? 8 8 ? 6 6 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 4 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 6 ? 4 ? 10 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 4 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Training Sample Size Training Sample Size Training Sample Size ? ? 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2.2 ?6800 2.0 1.8 1.6 ?6840 1000 MLE Oracle Gibbs_ExactL Gibbs_SBA MH_AuxVar ? 1.4 ? VI Difference ? 0.015 ? 1.2 ? ? ? Gibbs_ExactL Gibbs_SBA MH_AuxVar 1.0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?6880 0.025 ? Log?likelihood of Test Data 0.035 ? ? ?6920 MLE Oracle Gibbs_ExactL Gibbs_SBA MH_AuxVar ? 0.005 Error of Estimate ? ? 100 200 300 Training Sample Size (a) 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 Training Sample Size (b) 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Training Sample Size (c) ? ? 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2.0 ?198000 ? MLE Oracle Gibbs_SBA ? 1.5 1.0 ? VI Difference ? Gibbs_SBA 0.5 ? 0.02 ? ?202000 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?206000 0.04 0.03 ? ? ?210000 MLE Oracle Gibbs_SBA ? ? 0.01 Error of Estimate ? Log?pseudolikelihood of Test Data Figure 4: Performance of grouping-blind MLE, oracle MLE, Gibbs ExactL, MH AuxVar, and Gibbs SBA on the small grid-structure MRFs in terms of (a) error of estimate and (b) log-likelihood of test data. Subfigure (c) shows the VI difference between the grouping yielded by our Bayesian estimators and random grouping. ? 100 200 Training Sample Size (a) 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 Training Sample Size (b) 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Training Sample Size (c) Figure 5: Performance of the grouping-blind MLE, the oracle MLE and the Bayesian estimator (Gibbs SBA) on large grid-structure MRFs in terms of (a) error of estimate and (b) log-likelihood of test data. Subfigure (c) shows the VI difference between the grouping yielded by our Bayesian estimator and random grouping. Among the three Bayesian estimators, Table 1: The run time (in seconds) of Gibbs ExactL, Gibbs ExactL has the lowest estimate er- MH AuxVar and Gibbs SBA when training size is n. ror and the highest log likelihood of test n=100 n=500 n=1,000 G IBBS E XACT L 88,136.3 91,055.0 92,503.4 data. Gibbs SBA also performs consid540.2 3,342.2 4,546.7 MH AUX VAR erably well, and its performance is close G IBBS SBA 8.1 10.8 14.2 to the performance of Gibbs ExactL. MH AuxVar works slightly worse, especially when there is less training data. However, MH AuxVar recovers better groupings than Gibbs SBA when there are more training data. The run times of the three Bayesian estimators are listed in Table 1. Gibbs ExactL has a computational complexity that is exponential in the dimensionality d, and cannot be applied to situations when d > 20. MH AuxVar is also computationally intensive because it has to generate expensive particles. Gibbs SBA runs fast, with its burden mainly from running PCD under a specific grouping in each Gibbs sampling step, and it scales well. 4.3 Simulations on Large Grid-MRFs The large grid consists of 30 rows and 30 columns (i.e. 900 nodes and 1,740 edges). Exact likelihood is intractable for this large model, and we cannot run Gibbs ExactL. The high dimension also prohibits MH AuxVar. Therefore, we only run the Gibbs SBA algorithm on this large grid-structure MRF. We assume that there are 10 groups among the 1,740 parameters. We also evaluate the estimators by the log pseudo-likelihood of testing data. The other settings of the experiments stay the same as Section 4.2. We replicate the experiment 50 times, and the averaged results are in Figure 5. For all 10 training sets, our Bayesian estimator Gibbs SBA has a lower estimate error and a higher log likelihood of test data, compared with the grouping-blind MLE (via the PCD algorithm). Gibbs SBA has a higher estimate error and a lower pseudo-likelihood of test data than the oracle MLE. The VI difference in Figure 5(c) Figure 6: Number of groups inferred by Gibbs SBA indicates that Gibbs SBA gradually recovers the and its run time. grouping as the training size increases. The number of groups inferred by Gibbs SBA and its running time are provided in Figure 6. Similarly to the observation in Section 4.2, Gibbs SBA overestimates the number of groups. Gibbs SBA finishes the simulations on 900 nodes and 1,740 edges in hundreds of minutes (depending on the training size), which is considered to be very fast. 80 20 ? ? ? 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Training Sample Size 7 ? 800 900 1000 20000 ? ? ? ? ? ? Run Time (in seconds) ? ? ? 15000 Number of Groups Inferred ? ? ? 40 25000 30000 ? ? 60 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Training Sample Size 800 900 1000 Table 2: Log pseudo-likelihood (LPL) of training and testing data from MLE (PCD) and Bayesian estimate (Gibbs SBA), the number of groups inferred by Gibbs SBA, and its run time in the Senate voting experiments. E XP 1 E XP 2 5 LPL-T RAIN MLE G IBBS SBA -10716.75 -10721.34 -8306.17 -8322.34 LPL-T EST MLE G IBBS SBA -9022.01 -8989.87 -11490.47 -11446.45 # GROUPS 7.89 7.29 RUN T IME ( MINS ) 204 183 Real-world Application We apply the Gibbs SBA algorithm on US Senate voting data from the 109th Congress (available at www.senate.gov). The 109th Congress has two sessions, the first session in 2005 and the second session in 2006. There are 366 votes and 278 votes in the two sessions, respectively. There are 100 senators in both sessions, but Senator Corzine only served the first session and Senator Menendez only served the second session. We remove them. In total, we have 99 senators in our experiments, and we treat the votes from the 99 senators as the 99 variables in the MRF. We only consider contested votes, namely we remove the votes with less than ten or more than ninety supporters. In total, there are 292 votes and 221 votes left in the two sessions, respectively. The structure of the MRF is from Figure 13 in [2]. There are in total 279 edges. The votes are coded as ?1 for no and 1 for yes. We replace all missing votes with ?1, staying consistent with [2]. We perform two experiments. First, we train the MRF using the first session data, and test on the second session data. Then, we train on the second session and test on the first session. We compare our Bayesian estimator (via Gibbs SBA) and MLE (via PCD) by the log pseudo-likelihood of testing data since exact likelihood is intractable. We set the number of Gibbs sampling steps to be 3,000. Both of the two experiments are finished in around three hours on a single CPU. The results are summarized in Table 2. In the first experiment, the log pseudo-likelihood of test data is ?9022.01 from MLE, whereas it is ?8989.87 from our Bayesian estimate. In the second experiment, the log pseudo-likelihood of test data is ?11490.47 from MLE, whereas it is ?11446.45 from our Bayesian estimate. The increase of log pseudo-likelihood is comparable to the increase of log (pseudo-)likelihood we gain in the simulations (please refer to Figures 1b, 4b and 5b at the points when we simulate 200 and 300 training samples). Both experiments indicate that the models trained with the Gibbs SBA algorithm generalize considerably better than the models trained with MLE. Gibbs SBA also infers there are around eight different types of relations among the senators. The two trained models are provided in the supplementary materials, and the estimated parameters in the two models are consistent. 6 Discussion Bayesian nonparametric approaches [23, 10], such as the Dirichlet process [7], provide an elegant way of modeling mixtures with an unknown number of components. These approaches have yielded advances in different machine learning areas, such as the infinite Gaussian mixture models [26], the infinite mixture of Gaussian processes [27], infinite HMMs [3, 8], infinite HMRFs [6], DP-nonlinear models [28], DP-mixture GLMs [14], infinite SVMs [33, 32], and the infinite latent attribute models [24]. In this paper, we play the same trick of replacing the prior distribution with a prior stochastic process to accommodate our uncertainty about the number of parameter groups. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian nonparametric approach is applied to models whose likelihood is intractable. Accordingly, we propose two types of approximation, namely a MetropolisHastings algorithm with auxiliary variables and a Gibbs sampling algorithm with stripped Beta approximation. Both algorithms show superior performance over conventional MLE, and Gibbs SBA can also scale well to large-scale MRFs. The Markov chains in both algorithms are ergodic, but may not be in detailed balance because we rely on approximation. Thus, we guarantee that both algorithms converge for general MRFs, but they may not exactly converge to the target distribution. In this paper, we only consider the situation where the potential functions are pairwise and there is only one parameter in each potential function. For graphical models with more than one parameter in the potential functions, it is appropriate to group the parameters on the level of potential functions. A more sophisticated base distribution G0 (such as some multivariate distribution) needs to be considered. In this paper, we also assume the structures of the MRFs are given. When the structures are unknown, we still need to perform structure learning. Allowing structure learners to automatically identify structure modules will be another very interesting topic to explore in the future research. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the support of NIGMS R01GM097618-01 and NLM R01LM011028-01. 8 References [1] A. U. Asuncion, Q. Liu, A. T. Ihler, and P. Smyth. Particle filtered MCMC-MLE with connections to contrastive divergence. In ICML, 2010. [2] O. Banerjee, L. El Ghaoui, and A. d?Aspremont. Model selection through sparse maximum likelihood estimation for multivariate Gaussian or binary data. JMLR, 9:485?516, June 2008. [3] M. J. Beal, Z. Ghahramani, and C. E. Rasmussen. The infinite hidden Markov model. In NIPS, 2002. [4] J. Besag. Statistical analysis of non-lattice data. JRSS-D, 24(3):179?195, 1975. [5] D. Blei, A. Ng, and M. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet allocation. JMLR, 3:993?1022, 2003. [6] S. P. Chatzis and G. Tsechpenakis. The infinite hidden Markov random field model. In ICCV, 2009. [7] T. S. Ferguson. A Bayesian analysis of some nonparametric problems. The Annals of Statistics, 1(2):209? 230, 1973. [8] J. V. Gael, Y. Saatci, Y. W. Teh, and Z. Ghahramani. Beam sampling for the infinite hidden Markov model. In ICML, 2008. [9] A. Gelman and J. Hill. Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2007. [10] S. J. Gershman and D. M. Blei. A tutorial on Bayesian nonparametric models. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 56(1):1?12, 2012. [11] C. J. Geyer. Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. Computing Science and Statistics, pages 156?163, 1991. [12] M. Gutmann and J. Hirayama. Bregman divergence as general framework to estimate unnormalized statistical models. In UAI, pages 283?290, Corvallis, Oregon, 2011. AUAI Press. [13] M. Gutmann and A. Hyv?arinen. Noise-contrastive estimation: A new estimation principle for unnormalized statistical models. In AISTATS, 2010. [14] L. A. Hannah, D. M. Blei, and W. B. Powell. Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized linear models. JMLR, 12:1923?1953, 2011. [15] G. Hinton. Training products of experts by minimizing contrastive divergence. Neural Computation, 14:1771?1800, 2002. [16] A. Hyvarinen. Connections between score matching, contrastive divergence, and pseudolikelihood for continuous-valued variables. Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on, 18(5):1529?1531, 2007. [17] A. Hyv?arinen. Some extensions of score matching. Computational statistics & data analysis, 51(5):2499? 2512, 2007. [18] S. Lyu. Unifying non-maximum likelihood learning objectives with minimum KL contraction. NIPS, 2011. [19] M. Meila. Comparing clusterings by the variation of information. In COLT, 2003. [20] J. M?ller, A. Pettitt, R. Reeves, and K. Berthelsen. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method for distributions with intractable normalising constants. Biometrika, 93(2):451?458, 2006. [21] I. Murray, Z. Ghahramani, and D. J. C. MacKay. MCMC for doubly-intractable distributions. In UAI, 2006. [22] R. M. Neal. Markov chain sampling methods for Dirichlet process mixture models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 9(2):249?265, 2000. [23] P. Orbanz and Y. W. Teh. Bayesian nonparametric models. In Encyclopedia of Machine Learning. Springer, 2010. [24] K. Palla, D. A. Knowles, and Z. Ghahramani. An infinite latent attribute model for network data. In ICML, 2012. [25] J. G. Propp and D. B. Wilson. Exact sampling with coupled Markov chains and applications to statistical mechanics. Random structures and Algorithms, 9(1-2):223?252, 1996. [26] C. E. Rasmussen. The infinite Gaussian mixture model. In NIPS, 2000. [27] C. E. Rasmussen and Z. Ghahramani. Infinite mixtures of Gaussian process experts. In NIPS, 2001. [28] B. Shahbaba and R. Neal. Nonlinear models using Dirichlet process mixtures. JMLR, 10:1829?1850, 2009. [29] T. Tieleman. Training restricted Boltzmann machines using approximations to the likelihood gradient. In ICML, 2008. [30] T. Tieleman and G. Hinton. Using fast weights to improve persistent contrastive divergence. In ICML, 2009. [31] D. Vickrey, C. Lin, and D. Koller. Non-local contrastive objectives. In Proc. of the International Conference on Machine Learning. Citeseer, 2010. [32] J. Zhu, N. Chen, and E. P. Xing. Infinite latent SVM for classification and multi-task learning. In NIPS, 2011. [33] J. Zhu, N. Chen, and E. P. Xing. Infinite SVM: a Dirichlet process mixture of large-margin kernel machines. In ICML, 2011. [34] S. C. Zhu and X. Liu. Learning in Gibbsian fields: How accurate and how fast can it be? IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 24:1001?1006, 2002. 9
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On Sampling from the Gibbs Distribution with Random Maximum A-Posteriori Perturbations Tamir Hazan University of Haifa Subhransu Maji TTI Chicago Tommi Jaakkola CSAIL, MIT Abstract In this paper we describe how MAP inference can be used to sample efficiently from Gibbs distributions. Specifically, we provide means for drawing either approximate or unbiased samples from Gibbs? distributions by introducing low dimensional perturbations and solving the corresponding MAP assignments. Our approach also leads to new ways to derive lower bounds on partition functions. We demonstrate empirically that our method excels in the typical ?high signal high coupling? regime. The setting results in ragged energy landscapes that are challenging for alternative approaches to sampling and/or lower bounds. 1 Introduction Inference in complex models drives much of the research in machine learning applications, from computer vision, natural language processing, to computational biology. Examples include scene understanding, parsing, or protein design. The inference problem in such cases involves finding likely structures, whether objects, parsers, or molecular arrangements. Each structure corresponds to an assignment of values to random variables and the likelihood of an assignment is based on defining potential functions in a Gibbs distribution. Usually, it is feasible to find only the most likely or maximum a-posteriori (MAP) assignment (structure) rather than sampling from the full Gibbs distribution. Substantial effort has gone into developing algorithms for recovering MAP assignments, either based on specific structural restrictions such as super-modularity [2] or by devising cutting-planes based methods on linear programming relaxations [19, 24]. However, MAP inference is limited when there are other likely assignments. Our work seeks to leverage MAP inference so as to sample efficiently from the full Gibbs distribution. Specifically, we aim to draw either approximate or unbiased samples from Gibbs distributions by introducing low dimensional perturbations in the potential functions and solving the corresponding MAP assignments. Connections between random MAP perturbations and Gibbs distributions have been explored before. Recently [17, 21] defined probability models that are based on low dimensional perturbations, and empirically tied them to Gibbs distributions. [5] augmented these results by providing bounds on the partition function in terms of random MAP perturbations. In this work we build on these results to construct an efficient sampler for the Gibbs distribution, also deriving new lower bounds on the partition function. Our approach excels in regimes where there are several but not exponentially many prominent assignments. In such ragged energy landscapes classical methods for the Gibbs distribution such as Gibbs sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, remain computationally expensive [3, 25]. 2 Background Statistical inference problems involve reasoning about the states of discrete variables whose configurations (assignments of values) specify the discrete structures of interest. We assume that the 1 models are parameterized by real valued potentials ?(x) = ?(x1 , ..., xn ) < ? defined over a discrete product space X = X1 ? ? ? ? ? Xn . The effective domain is implicitly defined through ?(x) via exclusions ?(x) = ?? whenever x 6? dom(?). The real valued potential functions are mapped to the probability scale via the Gibbs? distribution: X 1 p(x1 , ..., xn ) = exp(?(x1 , ..., xn )), where Z = exp(?(x1 , ..., xn )). (1) Z x ,...,x 1 n The normalization constant Z is called the partition function. The feasibility of using the distribution for prediction, including sampling from it, is inherently tied to the ability to evaluate the partition function, i.e., the ability to sum over the discrete structures being modeled. In general, such counting problems are often hard, in #P. A slightly easier problem is that of finding the most likely assignment of values to variables, also known as the maximum a-posterior (MAP) prediction. (MAP) arg max x1 ,...,yn ?(x1 , ..., xn ) (2) Recent advances in optimization theory have been translated to successful algorithms for solving such MAP problems in many cases of practical interest. Although the MAP prediction problem is still NP-hard in general, it is often simpler than sampling from the Gibbs distribution. Our approach is based on representations of the Gibbs distribution and the partition function using extreme value statistics of linearly perturbed potential functions. Let {?(x)}x?X be a collection of random variables with zero mean, and consider random potential functions of the form ?(x) + ?(x). Analytic expressions for the statistics of a randomized MAP predictor, x ? ? argmaxx {?(x) + ?(x)}, can be derived for general discrete sets, whenever independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random perturbations are applied for every assignment x ? X. Specifically, when the random perturbations follow the Gumbel distribution (cf. [12]), we obtain the following result. Theorem 1. ([4], see also [17, 5]) Let {?(x)}x?X be a collection of i.i.d. random variables, each following the Gumbel distribution with zero mean, whose cumulative distribution function is F (t) = exp(? exp(?(t + c))), where c is the Euler constant. Then h i log Z = E? max{?(x) + ?(x)} . x?X h i 1 exp(?(? x)) = P? x ? ? arg max{?(x) + ?(x)} . x?X Z The max-stability of the Gumbel distribution provides a straight forward approach to generate unbiased samples from the Gibbs distribution as well as to approximate the partition function by a sample mean of random MAP perturbation. Assume we sample j = 1, ..., m independent predictions maxx {?(x) + ?j (x)}, then every maximal argument is an unbiased sample from the Gibbs distribution. Moreover, the randomized MAP predictions maxx {?(x) + ?j (x)} are independent and follow the Gumbel distribution, whose variance is ? 2 /6. Therefore Chebyshev?s inequality dictates, for every t, m m h 1 X i ? max{?(x) + ?j (x)} ? log Z ?  ? (3) P r? m j=1 x 6m2 In general each x = (x1 , ..., xn ) represents an assignment to n variables. Theorem 1 suggests to introduce an independent perturbation ?(x) for each such n?dimensional assignment x ? X. The complexity of inference and learning in this setting would be exponential in n. In our work we propose to investigate low dimensional random perturbations as the main tool to efficiently (approximate) sampling from the Gibbs distribution. 3 Probable approximate samples from the Gibbs distribution Sampling from the Gibbs distribution is inherently tied to estimating the partition function. Markov properties that simplify the distribution also decompose the computation of the partition function. 2 For example, assume a graphical model P with potential functions associated with subsets of variables ? ? {1, ..., n} so that ?(x) = ??A ?? (x? ). Assume that the subsets are disjoint except for their common intersection ? = ???A . This separation implies that the partition function can be computed in lower dimensional pieces  XY X Z= exp(?? (x? )) x? ??A x? \x? As a result, the computation is exponential only in the size of the subsets ? ? A. Thus, we can also estimate the partition function with lower dimensional random MAP perturbations, E? [maxx? \x? {?? (x? ) + ?? (x? )}]. The random perturbation are now required only for each assignment of values to the variables within the subsets ? ? A rather than the set of all variables. We approximate such partition functions with low dimensional perturbations and their averages. The overall computation is cast in a single MAP problem using an extended representation of potential functions by replicating variables. Lemma 1. Let A be subsets of variables that are separated by their joint intersection ? = ???A ?. We create multiple copies of x? , namely x ?? = (x?,j? )j? =1,...,m? , and define the extended potenPm? tial function ??? (? x? ) = ? (x )/m? . We also define the extended perturbation model ? ?,j ? j? =1 Pm ??? (? x? ) = j??=1 ??,j? (x?,j? )/m? , where each ??,j? (x?,j? ) is independent and distributed according to the Gumbel distribution with zero mean. Then, for every x? , with probability at least P 2 1 ? ??A 6m?? 2 X X X X  ??? (? x? ) + ??? (? x? ) ? log exp(?? (x? )) ? |A| max x ?\x? ??A ??A ??A x? \x? Proof: Equation (3) implies that for every x? with probability at most ? 2 /6m? 2 holds m? 1 X max {?? (x? ) + ??,j? (x? )} ? log m? j =1 x? \x? ? X  exp(?? (x? )) ? . x? \x? To compute the sampled average with a single Pm? max-operation we introduce the multiple copies x ?? = (x?,j? )j? =1,...,m? thus = j? =1 maxx? \x? {?? (x? ) + ??,j? (x? )} Pm maxx?,j? \x? j=1 {?? (x?,j? ) + ??,j? (x?,j? )}. By the union bound it holds for every ? ? A P simultaneously with probability at least 1 ? ??A ? 2 /6m? 2 . Since x? is fixed for every ? ? A the maximizations are done independently across subsets in x ? \ x? , where x ? is the concatenation of all x ?? , and m? n m? n X o o X X X X max ?? (x?,j? ) + ??,j? (x?,j? ) = max ?? (x?,j? ) + ??,j? (x?,j? ) . ??A x ?? \x? x ?\x? j? =1 j? =1 ??A ??A The proof then follows from the triangle inequality.  Whenever the graphical model has no cycles we can iteratively apply the separation properties without increasing the computational complexity of perturbations. Thus we may randomly perturb the subsets of potentials in the graph. For notational simplicity we describe our approximate sampling scheme for pairwise interactions ? = (i, j) although it holds for general graphical models without cycles: P P Theorem 2. Let ?(x) = i?V ?i (xi ) + i,j?E ?i,j (xi , xj ) be a graphical model with? out cycles, and let p(x) be the Gibbs distribution defined Equation (1). Let ?(x) = Pmi Q Pmiin ,mj ?(x , ..., x )/ m , and ? ? (x , x ) = ? (x , x )/m m 1,k n,k i i,j i j i,j,k ,k i,k j,k i j 1 n i j i j ki =1 i ki ,kj =1 where each perturbation is independent and distributed according to the Gumbel distribution with zero mean. Then, for every edge (r,P s) while mr = ms = 1 (i.e., they have no multiple copies) there n holds with probability at least 1 ? i=1 ? 2 c/6mi 2 , where c = maxi |Xi |  h n oi  X  X ? + p(x) ? n ??i,j (xi , xj ) ? log log P? xr , xs ? arg max ?(x) x ? i,j?E x\xr ,xs 3 Proof: Theorem 1 implies that we sample (xr , xs ) approximately from the Gibbs distribution P marginal probabilities with a max-operation, if we approximate x\{xr ,xs } exp(?(x)). Using graph separation (or equivalently the Markov property) it suffices to approximate the partial partition function over the disjoint subtrees Tr , Ts that originate from r, s respectively. Lemma 1 describes this case for a directed tree with a single parent. We use this by induction on the parents on these directed trees, noticing that graph separation guarantees: the statistics of Lemma 1 hold uniformly for every assignment of the parent?s non-descendants as well; the optimal assignments in Lemma 1 are chosen independently for every child for every assignment of the parent?s non-descendants label.  Our approximated sampling procedure expands the graphical model, creating layers of the original graph, while connecting edges between vertices in the different layers if an edge exists in the original graph. We use graph separations (Markov properties) to guarantee that the number of added layers is polynomial in n, while we approach arbitrarily close to the Gibbs distribution. This construction preserves the structure of the original graph, in particular, whenever the original graph has no cycles, the expanded graph does not have cycles as well. In the experiments we show that this probability model approximates well the Gibbs distribution for graphical models with many cycles. 4 Unbiased sampling using sequential bounds on the partition function In the following we describe how to use random MAP perturbations to generate unbiased samples from the Gibbs distribution. Sampling from the Gibbs distribution is inherently tied to estimating the partition function. Assume we could have compute the partition function exactly, then we could have sample from the Gibbs distribution sequentially: for every dimension we sample xi with probabilP ity which is proportional to xi+1 ,...,xn exp(?(x)). Unfortunately, approximations to the partition function, as described in Section 3, cannot provide a sequential procedure that would generate unbiased samples from the full Gibbs distribution. Instead, we construct a family of self-reducible upper bounds which imitate the partition function behavior, namely bound the summation over its exponentiations. These upper bounds extend the one in [5] when restricted to local perturbations. Lemma 2. Let {?i (xi )} be a collection of i.i.d. random variables, each following the Gumbel distribution with zero mean. Then for every j = 1, ..., n and every x1 , ..., xj?1 holds n n  h i  h i X X X exp E? max {?(x) + ?i (xi )} ? exp E? max {?(x) + ?i (xi )} xj xj+1 ,...,xn xj ,...,xn i=j+1 In particular, for j = n holds i=j  h i . xn exp(?(x)) = exp E?n (xn ) maxxj ,...,xn {?(x) + ?n (xn )} P Proof: The result is an application of the expectation-optimization interpretation of the partition   function in Theorem 1. The left hand side equals to E max E max {?(x) + ? x ? ,...,? x j j j+1 n j+1 ,...,xn  Pn ? (x ) , while the right hand side is attained by alternating the maximization with respect i=j i i to xj with the expectation of ?j+1 , ..., ?n . The proof then follows by taking the exponent. We use these upper bounds for every dimension i = 1, ..., n to sample from a probability distribution that follows a summation over exponential functions, with a discrepancy that is described by the upper bound. This is formalized below in Algorithm 1 Algorithm 1 Unbiased sampling from Gibbs distribution using randomized prediction Iterate over j = 1, ..., n, while keeping fixed x1 , ..., xj?1 . Set   P exp E? maxxj+1 ,...,xn {?(x)+ n i=j+1 ?i (xi )}   1. pj (xj ) = . Pn exp E? maxxj ,...,xn {?(x)+ 2. pj (r) = 1 ? P xj i=j ?i (xi )} p(xj ) 3. Sample an element according to pj (?). If r is sampled then reject and restart with j = 1. Otherwise, fix the sampled element xj and continue the iterations. Output: x1 , ..., xn When we reject the discrepancy, the probability we accept a configuration x is the product of probabilities in all rounds. Since these upper bounds are self-reducible, i.e., for every dimension i we 4 are using the same quantities that were computed in the previous dimensions 1, ..., i ? 1, we are sampling an accepted configuration proportionally to exp(?(x)), the full Gibbs distribution. Theorem 3. Let p(x) be the Gibbs distribution, defined in Equation (1) and let {?i (xi )} be a collection of i.i.d. random variables following the Gumbel distribution with zero mean. Then whenever Algorithm 1 accepts, it produces a configuration (x1 , ..., xn ) according to the Gibbs distribution h i P Algorithm 1 outputs x Algorithm 1 accepts = p(x). Proof: The probability of sampling a configuration (x1 , ..., xn ) without rejecting is   Pn max {?(x) + i=j+1 ?i (xi )} n exp E? Y xj+1 ,...,xn exp(?(x))  =  .   Pn Pn exp E? max {?(x) + i=j ?i (xi )} exp E? max {?(x) + i=1 ?i (xi )} j=1 xj ,...,xn x1 ,...,xn The probability of sampling without is thus over  all configura  rejecting   the sum of this probability Pn tion, i.e., P Algorithm 1 accepts = Z exp E? maxx1 ,...,xn {?(x) + i=1 ?i (xi )} . Therefore conditioned on accepting a configuration, it is produced according to the Gibbs distribution. . Acceptance/rejection follows the geometric distribution, therefore the sampling procedure rejects k times with probability (1 ? P [Algorithm 1 accepts])k . The running time of our Gibbs sampler is determined by the average number of rejections 1/P [Algorithm 1 accepts]. Interestingly, this average is the quality of the partition upper bound presented in [5]. To augment this result we investigate in the next section efficiently computable lower bounds to the partition function, that are based on random MAP perturbations. These lower bounds provide a way to efficiently determine the computational complexity for sampling from the Gibbs distribution for a given potential function. 5 Lower bounds on the partition function The realization of the partition function as expectation-optimization pair in Theorem 1 provides efficiently computable lower bounds on the partition function. Intuitively, these bounds correspond to moving expectations (or summations) inside the maximization operations. In the following we present two lower bounds that are derived along these lines, the first holds in expectation and the second holds in probability. Corollary 1. Consider a family of subsets ? ? A and let x? be a set of variables {xi }i?? restricted to the indexes in ?. Assume that the random variables ?? (x? ) are i.i.d. according to the Gumbel distribution with zero mean, for every ?, x? . Then h  i ?? ? A log Z ? E? max ?(x) + ?? (x? ) . x h  In particular, log Z ? E? maxx ?(x) + 1 |A| P ??A ?? (x? ) i . P P P Proof: Let ? ? = {1, ..., n} \ ? then Z = x? x?? exp(?(x)) ? x? maxx?? exp(?(x)). The first result is derived by swapping the maximization with the exponent, and Theorem 1. The Papplying 1 E? [maxx {?(x) + second result is attained while averaging these lower bounds log Z ? ??A |A| ?? (x? )}], and by moving the summation inside the maximization operation.  The expected lower bound requires to invoke a MAP solver multiple times. Although this expectation may be ? estimated with a single MAP execution, the variance of this random MAP prediction is around n. We suggest to recursively use Lemma 1 to lower bound the partition function with a single MAP operation in probability. Corollary 2. Let ?(x) be a potential function over x = (x1 , ..., xn ). We create multiple copies of xi , namely xi,ki for ki = 1, ..., mi , and define the extended potential function Pmi Q ? ?(x) = mi . We define the extended perturbation model ??i (xi ) = ki =1 ?(x1,k1 , ..., xn,kn )/ Pmi ? (x )/m where each perturbation is independent and distributed according to the i,ki i ki =1 i,ki Pn Gumbel distribution with zero mean. Then, with probability at least 1 ? i=1 ? 2 |dom(?)|/6mi 2 P ? + n ??i (xi )} ? n holds log Z ? maxx? {?(x) i=1 5 lower bounds unbiased samplesr complexity approximate sampler Figure 1: Left: comparing our expected lower and probable lower bounds with structured mean-field and belief propagation on attractive models with high signal and varying coupling strength. Middle: estimating our unbiased sampling procedure complexity on spin glass models of varying sizes. Right: Comparing our approximate sampling procedure on attractive models with high signal. Proof: We estimate the expectation-optimization value of the log-partition function iteratively for every dimension, while replacing each expectation with its sampled average, as described in Lemma 1. Our result holds for every potential function, thus the statistics in each recursion hold uniformly for every x with probability at least 1 ? ? 2 |dom(?)|/6mi 2 . We then move the averages inside the maximization operation, thus lower bounding the n?approximation of the partition function.  The probable lower bound that we provide does not assume graph separations thus the statistical guarantees are worse than the ones presented in the approximation scheme of Theorem 2. Also, since we are seeking for lower bound, we are able relax our optimization requirements and thus to use vertex based random perturbations ?i (xi ). This is an important difference that makes this lower bound widely applicable and very efficient. 6 Experiments P P We evaluated our approach on spin glass models ?(x) = i?V ?i xi + (i,j)?E ?i,j xi xj . where xi ? {?1, 1}. Each spin has a local field parameter ?i , sampled uniformly from [?1, 1]. The spins interact in a grid shaped graphical model with couplings ?i,j , sampled uniformly from [0, c]. Whenever the coupling parameters are positive the model is called attractive as adjacent variables give higher values to positively correlated configurations. Attractive models are computationally appealing as their MAP predictions can be computed efficiently by the graph-cut algorithm [2]. We begin by evaluating our lower bounds, presented in Section 5, on 10 ? 10 spin glass models. Corollary 1 presents a lower bound that holds in expectation. We evaluated these lower bounds while perturbing the local potentials with ?i (xi ). Corollary 2 presents a lower bound that holds in probability and requires only a single MAP prediction on an expanded model. We evaluate the probable bound by expanding the model to 1000 ? 1000 grids, ignoring the discrepancy . For both the expected lower bound and the probable lower bound we used graph-cuts to compute the random MAP perturbations. We compared these bounds to the different forms of structured mean-field, taking the one that performed best: standard structured mean-field that we computed over the vertical chains [8, 1], and the negative tree re-weighted computed on the horizontal and vertical trees [14]. We also compared to the sum-product belief propagation algorithm, which was recently proven to produce lower bounds for attractive models [20, 18]. We computed the error in estimating the logarithm of the partition function, averaged over 10 spin glass models, see Figure 1. One can see that the probable bound is the tightest when considering the medium and high coupling domain, which is traditionally hard for all methods. As it holds in probability it might generate a solution which is not a lower bound. One can also verify that on average this does not happen. The expected lower bound is significantly worse for the low coupling regime, in which many configurations need to be taken into account. It is (surprisingly) effective for the high coupling regime, which is characterized by a few dominant configurations. Section 4 describes an algorithm that generates unbiased samples from the full Gibbs distribution. Focusing on spin glass models with strong local field potentials, it is well know that one cannot produce unbiased samples from the Gibbs distributions in polynomial time [3]. Theorem 3 connects 6 Image + annotation MAP solution Average of 20 samples Error estimates Figure 2: Example image with the boundary annotation (left) and the error estimates obtained using our method (right). Thin structures of the object are often lost in a single MAP solution (middle-left), which are recovered by averaging the samples (middle-right) leading to better error estimates. the computational complexity of our unbiased sampling procedure to the gap between the logarithm of the partition function and its upper bound in [5]. We use our probable lower bound to estimate this gap on large grids, for which we cannot compute the partition function exactly. Figure 1 suggests that the running time for this sampling procedure is sub-exponential. Sampling from the Gibbs distribution in spin glass models with non-zero local field potentials is computationally hard [7, 3]. The approximate sampling technique in Theorem 3 suggests a method to overcome this difficulty by efficiently sampling from a distribution that approximates the Gibbs distribution on its marginal probabilities. Although our theory is only stated for graphs without cycles, it can be readily applied to general graphs, in the same way the (loopy) belief propagation algorithm is applied. For computational reasons we did not expand the graph. Also, we experiment both with pairwise perturbations, as Theorem 2 suggests, and with local perturbations, which are guaranteed to preserve the potential function super-modularity. We computed the local marginal probability errors of our sampling procedure, while comparing to the standard methods of Gibbs sampling, Metropolis and Swendsen-Wang1 . In our experiments we let them run for at most 1e8 iterations, see Figure 1. Both Gibbs sampling and the Metropolis algorithm perform similarly (we omit the Gibbs sampler performance for clarity). Although these algorithms as well as the Swendsen-Wang algorithm directly sample from the Gibbs distribution, they typically require exponential running time to succeed on spin glass models. Figure 1 shows that these samplers are worse than our approximate samplers. Although we omit from the plots for clarity, our approximate sampling marginal probabilities compare to those of the sum-product belief propagation and the tree re-weighted belief propagation [22]. Nevertheless, our sampling scheme also provides a probability notion, which lacks in the belief propagation type algorithms. Surprisingly, the approximate sampler that uses pairwise perturbations performs (slightly) worse than the approximate sampler that only use local perturbations. Although this is not explained by our current theory, it is an encouraging observation, since approximate sampler that uses random MAP predictions with local perturbations is orders of magnitude faster. Lastly, we emphasize the importance of probabilistic reasoning over the current variational methods, such as tree re-weighted belief propagation [22] or max-marginal probabilities [10], that only generate probabilities over small subsets of variables. The task we consider is to obtain pixel accurate boundaries from rough boundaries provided by the user. For example in an image editing application the user may provide an input in the form of a rough polygon and the goal is to refine the boundaries using the information from the gradients in the image. A natural notion of error is the average deviation of the marked boundary from the true boundary of the image. Given a user boundary we set up a graphical model on the pixels using foreground/background models trained from regions well inside/outside the marked boundary. Exact binary labeling can be obtained using the graph-cuts algorithm. From this we can compute the expected error by sampling multiple solutions using random MAP predictors and averaging. On a dataset of 10 images which we carefully annotated to obtain pixel accurate boundaries we find that random MAP perturbations produce significantly more accurate estimates of boundary error compared to a single MAP solution. On average the error estimates obtained using random MAP perturbations is off by 1.04 pixels from the true error (obtained from ground truth) whereas the MAP which is off by 3.51 pixels. Such a measure can be used in an active annotation framework where the users can iteratively fix parts of the boundary that contain errors. 1 We used Talya Meltzer?s inference package. 7 Figure 2 shows an example annotation, the MAP solution, the mean of 20 random MAP solutions, and boundary error estimates. 7 Related work The Gibbs distribution plays a key role in many areas of science, including computer science, statistics and physics. To learn more about its roles in machine learning, as well as its standard samplers, we refer the interested reader to the textbook [11]. Our work is based on max-statistics of collections of random variables. For comprehensive introduction to extreme value statistics we refer the reader to [12]. The Gibbs distribution and its partition function can be realized from the statistics of random MAP perturbations with the Gumbel distribution (see Theorem 1), [12, 17, 21, 5]. Recently, [16, 9, 17, 21, 6] explore the different aspects of random MAP predictions with low dimensional perturbation. [16] describe sampling from the Gaussian distribution with random Gaussian perturbations. [17] show that random MAP predictors with low dimensional perturbations share similar statistics as the Gibbs distribution. [21] describe the Bayesian perspectives of these models and their efficient sampling procedures. [9, 6] consider the generalization properties of such models within PAC-Bayesian theory. In our work we formally relate random MAP perturbations and the Gibbs distribution. Specifically, we describe the case for which the marginal probabilities of random MAP perturbations, with the proper expansion, approximate those of the Gibbs distribution. We also show how to use the statistics of random MAP perturbations to generate unbiased samples from the Gibbs distribution. These probability models generate samples efficiently thorough optimization: they have statistical advantages over purely variational approaches such as tree re-weighted belief propagation [22] or max-marginals [10], and they are faster than standard Gibbs samplers and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches when MAP prediction is efficient [3, 25]. Other methods that efficiently produce samples include Herding [23] and determinantal processes [13]. Our suggested samplers for the Gibbs distribution are based on low dimensional representation of the partition function, [5]. We augment their results in a few ways. In Lemma 2 we refine their upper bound, to a series of sequentially tighter bounds. Corollary 2 shows that the approximation scheme of [5] is in fact a lower bound that holds in probability. Lower bounds for the partition function have been extensively developed in the recent years within the context of variational methods. Structured mean-field methods are inner-bound methods where a simpler distribution is optimized as an approximation to the posterior in a KL-divergence sense [8, 1, 14]. The difficulty comes from non-convexity of the set of feasible distributions. Surprisingly, [20, 18] have shown that the sum-product belief propagation provides a lower bound to the partition function for super-modular potential functions. This result is based on the four function theorem which considers nonnegative functions over distributive lattices. 8 Discussion This work explores new approaches to sample from the Gibbs distribution. Sampling from the Gibbs distribution is key problem in machine learning. Traditional approaches, such as Gibbs sampling, fail in the ?high-signal high-coupling? regime that results in ragged energy landscapes. Following [17, 21], we showed here that one can take advantage of efficient MAP solvers to generate approximate or unbiased samples from the Gibbs distribution, when we randomly perturb the potential function. Since MAP predictions are not affected by ragged energy landscapes, our approach excels in the ?high-signal high-coupling? regime. As a by-product to our approach we constructed lower bounds to the partition functions, which are both tighter and faster than the previous approaches in the ?high-signal high-coupling? regime. Our approach is based on random MAP perturbations that estimate the partition functions with expectation. In practice we compute the empirical mean. [15] show that the deviation of the sampled mean from its expectation decays exponentially. The computational complexity of our approximate sampling procedure is determined by the perturbations dimension. Currently, our theory do not describe the success of the probability model that is based on the maximal argument of perturbed MAP program with local perturbations. 8 References [1] Alexandre Bouchard-C?ot?e and Michael I Jordan. Optimization of structured mean field objectives. In AUAI, pages 67?74, 2009. [2] Y. Boykov, O. Veksler, and R. Zabih. Fast approximate energy minimization via graph cuts. PAMI, 2001. [3] L.A. Goldberg and M. Jerrum. The complexity of ferromagnetic ising with local fields. Combinatorics Probability and Computing, 16(1):43, 2007. [4] E.J. Gumbel and J. Lieblein. Statistical theory of extreme values and some practical applications: a series of lectures, volume 33. US Govt. Print. Office, 1954. [5] T. Hazan and T. Jaakkola. On the partition function and random maximum a-posteriori perturbations. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [6] T. Hazan, S. Maji, Keshet J., and T. Jaakkola. Learning efficient random maximum a-posteriori predictors with non-decomposable loss functions. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2013. [7] M. Jerrum and A. Sinclair. Polynomial-time approximation algorithms for the ising model. SIAM Journal on computing, 22(5):1087?1116, 1993. [8] M.I. Jordan, Z. Ghahramani, T.S. Jaakkola, and L.K. Saul. An introduction to variational methods for graphical models. Machine learning, 37(2):183?233, 1999. [9] J. Keshet, D. McAllester, and T. Hazan. Pac-bayesian approach for minimization of phoneme error rate. In ICASSP, 2011. [10] Pushmeet Kohli and Philip HS Torr. Measuring uncertainty in graph cut solutions?efficiently computing min-marginal energies using dynamic graph cuts. In ECCV, pages 30?43. 2006. [11] D. Koller and N. Friedman. Probabilistic graphical models. MIT press, 2009. [12] S. Kotz and S. Nadarajah. Extreme value distributions: theory and applications. World Scientific Publishing Company, 2000. [13] A. Kulesza and B. Taskar. Structured determinantal point processes. In Proc. Neural Information Processing Systems, 2010. [14] Qiang Liu and Alexander T Ihler. Negative tree reweighted belief propagation. arXiv preprint arXiv:1203.3494, 2012. [15] Francesco Orabona, Tamir Hazan, Anand D Sarwate, and Tommi. Jaakkola. On measure concentration of random maximum a-posteriori perturbations. arXiv:1310.4227, 2013. [16] G. Papandreou and A. Yuille. Gaussian sampling by local perturbations. In Proc. Int. Conf. on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 1858?1866, December 2010. [17] G. Papandreou and A. Yuille. Perturb-and-map random fields: Using discrete optimization to learn and sample from energy models. In ICCV, Barcelona, Spain, November 2011. [18] Nicholas Ruozzi. The bethe partition function of log-supermodular graphical models. arXiv preprint arXiv:1202.6035, 2012. [19] D. Sontag, T. Meltzer, A. Globerson, T. Jaakkola, and Y. Weiss. Tightening LP relaxations for MAP using message passing. In Conf. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2008. [20] E.B. Sudderth, M.J. Wainwright, and A.S. Willsky. Loop series and Bethe variational bounds in attractive graphical models. Advances in neural information processing systems, 20, 2008. [21] D. Tarlow, R.P. Adams, and R.S. Zemel. Randomized optimum models for structured prediction. In Proceedings of the 15th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2012. [22] M. J. Wainwright, T. S. Jaakkola, and A. S. Willsky. A new class of upper bounds on the log partition function. Trans. on Information Theory, 51(7):2313?2335, 2005. [23] Max Welling. Herding dynamical weights to learn. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 1121?1128. ACM, 2009. [24] T. Werner. High-arity interactions, polyhedral relaxations, and cutting plane algorithm for soft constraint optimisation (map-mrf). In CVPR, pages 1?8, 2008. [25] J. Zhang, H. Liang, and F. Bai. Approximating partition functions of the two-state spin system. Information Processing Letters, 111(14):702?710, 2011. 9
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EDML for Learning Parameters in Directed and Undirected Graphical Models Khaled S. Refaat, Arthur Choi, Adnan Darwiche Computer Science Department University of California, Los Angeles {krefaat,aychoi,darwiche}@cs.ucla.edu Abstract EDML is a recently proposed algorithm for learning parameters in Bayesian networks. It was originally derived in terms of approximate inference on a metanetwork, which underlies the Bayesian approach to parameter estimation. While this initial derivation helped discover EDML in the first place and provided a concrete context for identifying some of its properties (e.g., in contrast to EM), the formal setting was somewhat tedious in the number of concepts it drew on. In this paper, we propose a greatly simplified perspective on EDML, which casts it as a general approach to continuous optimization. The new perspective has several advantages. First, it makes immediate some results that were non-trivial to prove initially. Second, it facilitates the design of EDML algorithms for new graphical models, leading to a new algorithm for learning parameters in Markov networks. We derive this algorithm in this paper, and show, empirically, that it can sometimes learn estimates more efficiently from complete data, compared to commonly used optimization methods, such as conjugate gradient and L-BFGS. 1 Introduction EDML is a recently proposed algorithm for learning MAP parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data [5, 16]. While it is procedurally very similar to Expectation Maximization (EM) [7, 11], EDML was shown to have certain advantages, both theoretically and practically. Theoretically, EDML can in certain specialized cases provably converge in one iteration, whereas EM may require many iterations to solve the same learning problem. Some empirical evaluations further suggested that EDML and hybrid EDML/EM algorithms can sometimes find better parameter estimates than vanilla EM, in fewer iterations and less time. EDML was originally derived in terms of approximate inference on a meta-network used for Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation. This graphical representation of the estimation problem lent itself to the initial derivation of EDML, as well to the identification of certain key theoretical properties, such as the one we just described. The formal details, however, can be somewhat tedious as EDML draws on a number of different concepts. We review EDML in such terms in the supplementary appendix. In this paper, we propose a new perspective on EDML, which views it more abstractly in terms of a simple method for continuous optimization. This new perspective has a number of advantages. First, it makes immediate some results that were previously obtained for EDML, but through some effort. Second, it facilitates the design of new EDML algorithms for new classes of models, where graphical formulations of parameter estimation, such as meta-networks, are lacking. Here, we derive, in particular, a new parameter estimation algorithm for Markov networks, which is in many ways a more challenging task, compared to the case of Bayesian networks. Empirically, we find that EDML is capable of learning parameter estimates, under complete data, more efficiently than popular methods such as conjugate-gradient and L-BFGS, and in some cases, by an order-of-magnitude. 1 This paper is structured as follows. In Section 2, we highlight a simple iterative method for, approximately, solving continuous optimization problems. In Section 3, we formulate the EDML algorithm for parameter estimation in Bayesian networks, as an instance of this optimization method. In Section 4, we derive a new EDML algorithm for Markov networks, based on the same perspective. In Section 5, we contrast the two EDML algorithms for directed and undirected graphical models, in the complete data case. We empirically evaluate our new algorithm for parameter estimation under complete data in Markov networks, in Section 6; review related work in Section 7; and conclude in Section 8. Proofs of theorems appear in the supplementary appendix. 2 An Approximate Optimization of Real-Valued Functions Consider a real-valued objective function f (x) whose input x is a vector of components: x = (x1 , . . . , xi , . . . , xn ), where each component xi is a vector in Rki for some ki . Suppose further that we have a constraint on the domain of function f (x) with a corresponding function g that maps an arbitrary point x to a point g(x) satisfying the given constraint. We say in this case that g(x) is a feasibility function and refer to the points in its range as feasible points. Our goal here is to find a feasible input vector x = (x1 , . . . , xi , . . . , xn ) that optimizes the function f (x). Given the difficulty of this optimization problem in general, we will settle for finding stationary points x in the constrained domain of function f (x). One approach for finding such stationary points is as follows. Let x? = (x?1 , . . . , x?i , . . . , x?n ) be a feasible point in the domain of function f (x). For each component xi , we define a sub-function fx? (xi ) = f (x?1 , . . . , x?i?1 , xi , x?i+1 , . . . , x?n ). That is, we use the n-ary function f (x) to generate n sub-functions fx? (xi ). Each of these subfunctions is obtained by fixing all inputs xj of f (x), for j 6= i, to their values in x? , while keeping the input xi free. We further assume that these sub-functions are subject to the same constraints that the function f (x) is subject to. We can now characterize all feasible points x? that are stationary with respect to the function f (x), in terms of local conditions on sub-functions fx? (xi ). Claim 1 A feasible point x? = (x?1 , . . . , x?i , . . . , x?n ) is stationary for function f (x) iff for all i, component x?i is stationary for sub-function fx? (xi ). This is immediate from the definition of a stationary point. Assuming no constraints, at a stationary point x? , the gradient ?f (x? ) = 0, i.e., ?xi f (x? ) = ?fx? (x?i ) = 0 for all xi , where ?xi f (x? ) denotes the sub-vector of gradient ?f (x? ) with respect to component xi .1 With these observations, we can now search for feasible stationary points x? of the constrained function f (x) using an iterative method that searches instead for stationary points of the constrained sub-functions fx? (xi ). The method works as follows: 1. Start with some feasible point xt of function f (x) for t = 0 2. While some xti is not a stationary point for constrained sub-function fxt (xi ) (a) Find a stationary point yit+1 for each constrained sub-function fxt (xi ) (b) xt+1 = g(y t+1 ) (c) Increment t The real computational work of this iterative procedure is in Steps 2(a) and 2(b), although we shall see later that such steps can, in some cases, be performed efficiently. With an appropriate feasibility function g(y), one can guarantee that a fixed-point of this procedure yields a stationary point of the constrained function f (x), by Claim 1.2 Further, any stationary point is trivially a fixed-point of this procedure (one can seed this procedure with such a point). 1 2 Under constraints, we consider points that are stationary with respect to the corresponding Lagrangian. We discuss this point further in the supplementary appendix. 2 As we shall show in the next section, the EDML algorithm?which has been proposed for parameter estimation in Bayesian networks?is an instance of the above procedure with some notable observations: (1) the sub-functions fxt (xi ) are convex and have unique optima; (2) these sub-functions have an interesting semantics, as they correspond to posterior distributions that are induced by Naive Bayes networks with soft evidence asserted on them; (3) defining these sub-functions requires inference in a Bayesian network parameterized by the current feasible point xt ; (4) there are already several convergent, fixed-point iterative methods for finding the unique optimum of these sub-functions; and (5) these convergent methods produce solutions that are always feasible and, hence, the feasibility function g(y) corresponds to the identity function g(y) = y in this case. We next show this connection to EDML as proposed for parameter estimation in Bayesian networks. We follow by deriving an EDML algorithm (another instance of the above procedure), but for parameter estimation in undirected graphical models. We will also study the impact of having complete data on both versions of the EDML algorithm, and finally evaluate the new instance of EDML by comparing it to conjugate gradient and L-BFGS when applied to complete datasets. 3 EDML for Bayesian Networks From here on, we use upper case letters (X) to denote variables and lower case letters (x) to denote their values. Variable sets are denoted by bold-face upper case letters (X) and their instantiations by bold-face lower case letters (x). Generally, we will use X to denote a variable in a Bayesian network and U to denote its parents. A network parameter will therefore have the general form ?x|u , representing the probability Pr (X = x|U = u). Consider a (possibly incomplete) dataset D with examples d1 , . . . , dN , and a Bayesian network with parameters ?. Our goal is to find parameter estimates ? that minimize the negative log-likelihood: N X log Pr ? (di ). (1) f (?) = ?``(?|D) = ? i=1 Here, ? = (. . . , ?X|u , . . .) is a vector over the network parameters. Moreover, Pr ? is the distribution induced by the Bayesian network structure under parameters ?. As such, Pr ? (di ) is the probability of observing example di in dataset D under parameters ?. Each component of ? is a parameter set ?X|u , which defines a parameter ?x|u for each value x of variable X and instantiation u of its parents U. The Pfeasibility constraint here is that each component ?X|u satisfies the convex sum-to-one constraint: x ?x|u = 1. The above parameter estimation problem is clearly in the form of the constrained optimization problem that we phrased in the previous section and, hence, admits the same iterative procedure proposed in that section for finding stationary points. The relevant questions now are: What form do the subfunctions f?? (?X|u ) take in this context? What are their semantics? What properties do they have? How do we find their stationary points? What is the feasibility function g(y) in this case? Finally, what is the connection to previous work on EDML? We address these questions next. 3.1 Form We start by characterizing the sub-functions of the negative log-likelihood given in Equation 1. Theorem 1 For each parameter set ?X|u , the negative log-likelihood of Equation 1 has the subfunction: N   X X i f?? (?X|u ) = ? log Cui + Cx|u ? ?x|u (2) x i=1 i where Cui and Cx|u are constants that are independent of parameter set ?X|u , given by Cui = Pr ?? (di ) ? Pr ?? (u, di ) and i ? Cx|u = Pr ?? (x, u, di )/?x|u To compute the constants C i , we require inference on a Bayesian network with parameters ?? .3 3 ? i Theorem 1 assumes tacitly that ?x|u 6= 0. More generally, however, Cx|u = ?Pr ?? (di )/??x|u , which can also be computed using some standard inference algorithms [6, 14]. 3 !X X1 X2 ?1 ?2 ? ? ? ? XN ?N Figure 1: Estimation given independent soft observations. 3.2 Semantics Equation 2 has an interesting semantics, as it corresponds to the negative log-likelihood of a root variable in a naive Bayes structure, on which soft, not necessarily hard, evidence is asserted [5].4 This model is illustrated in Figure 1, where our goal is to estimate a parameter set ?X , given soft observations ? = (?1 , . . . , ?N ) on variables X1 , . . . , XN , where each ?i has a strength specified by a weight on each value xi of Xi . If we denote the distribution of this model by P, then (1) P(?) denotes a prior over parameters sets,5 (2) P(xi |?X = (. . . , ?x , . . .)) = ?x , and (3) weights P(?i |xi ) denote the strengths of soft evidence ?i on value xi . The log likelihood of our soft observations ? is: N N X X X X log log log P(?|?X ) = P(?i |xi )P(xi |?X ) = P(?i |xi ) ? ?x (3) xi i=1 i=1 xi The following result connects Equation 2 to the above likelihood of a soft dataset, when we now want to estimate the parameter set ?X|u , for a particular variable X and parent instantiation u. Theorem 2 Consider Equations 2 and 3, and assume that each soft evidence ?i has the strength i P(?i |xi ) = Cui + Cx|u . It then follows that f?? (?X|u ) = ? log P(?|?X|u ) (4) This theorem yields the following interesting semantics for EDML sub-functions. Consider a parameter set ?X|u and example di in our dataset. The example can then be viewed as providing ?votes? on what this parameter set should be. In particular, the vote of example di for value x takes the form of a soft evidence ?i whose strength is given by ? P(?i |xi ) = Pr ?? (di ) ? Pr ?? (u, di ) + Pr ?? (x, u, di )/?x|u The sub-function is then aggregating these votes from different examples and producing a corresponding objective function on parameter set ?X|u . EDML optimizes this objective function to produce the next estimate for each parameter set ?X|u . 3.3 Properties Equation 2 is a convex function, and thus has a unique optimum.6 In particular, we have logs of a linear function, which are each concave. The sum of two concave functions is also concave, thus our sub-function f?? (?X|u ) is convex, and is subject to a convex sum-to-one constraint [16]. Convex functions are relatively well understood, and there are a variety of methods and systems that can be used to optimize Equation 2; see, e.g., [3]. We describe one such approach, next. 3.4 Finding the Unique Optima In every EDML iteration, and for each parameter set ?X|u , we seek the unique optimum for each sub-function f?? (?X|u ), given by Equation 2. Refaat, et al., has previously proposed a fixed-point 4 Soft evidence is an observation that increases or decreases ones belief in an event, but not necessarily to the point of certainty. For more on soft evidence, see [4]. 5 Typically, we assume Dirichlet priors for MAP estimation. However, we focus on ML estimation here. 6 More specifically, strict convexity implies a unique optimum, although under certain assumptions, we can guarantee that Equation 2 is indeed strictly convex. 4 algorithm that monotonically improves the objective, and is guaranteed to converge [16]. Moreover, the solutions it produces already satisfy the convex sum-to-one constraint and, hence, the feasibility function g ends up being the identity function g(?) = ?. t In particular, we start with some initial feasible estimates ?X|u at iteration t = 0, and then apply the following update equation until convergence: N i i t 1 X (Cu + Cx|u ) ? ?x|u t+1 P ?x|u = (5) N i=1 Cui + x0 Cxi 0 |u ? ?xt 0 |u Note here that constants C i are computed by inference on a Bayesian network structure under parameters ?t (see Theorem 1 for the definitions of these constants). Moreover, while the above procedure is convergent when optimizing sub-functions f?? (?X|u ), the global EDML algorithm that is optimizing function f (?) may not be convergent in general. 3.5 Connection to Previous Work EDML was originally derived by applying an approximate inference algorithm to a meta-network, which is typically used in Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation [5, 16]. This previous formulation of EDML, which is specific to Bayesian networks, now falls as a special instance of the one given in Section 2. In particular, the ?sub-problems? defined by the original EDML [5, 16] correspond precisely to the sub-functions f?? (?X|u ) described here. Further, both versions of EDML are procedurally identical when they both use the same method for optimizing these sub-functions. The new formulation of EDML is more transparent, however, at least in revealing certain properties of the algorithm. For example, it now follows immediately (from Section 2) that the fixed points of EDML are stationary points of the log-likelihood?a fact that was not proven until [16], using a technique that appealed to the relationship between EDML and EM. Moreover, the proof that EDML under complete data will converge immediately to the optimal estimates is also now immediate (see Section 5). More importantly though, this new formulation provides a systematic procedure for deriving new instances of EDML for additional models, beyond Bayesian networks. Indeed, in the next section, we use this procedure to derive an EDML instance for Markov networks, which is followed by an empirical evaluation of the new algorithm under complete data. 4 EDML for Undirected Models In this section, we show how parameter estimation for undirected graphical models, such as Markov networks, can also be posed as an optimization problem, as described in Section 2. For Markov networks, ? = (. . . , ?Xa , . . .) is a vector over the network parameters. Component ?Xa is a parameter set for a (tabular) factor a, assigning a number ?xa ? 0 for each instantiation xa of variables Xa . The negative log-likelihood ?``(?|D) for a Markov network is: N X ?``(?|D) = N log Z? ? log Z? (di ) (6) i=1 where Z? is the partition function, and where Z? (di ) is the partition function after conditioning on example di , under parameterization ?. Sub-functions with respect to Equation 6 may not be convex, as was the case in Bayesian networks. Consider instead the following objective function, which we shall subsequently relate to the negative log-likelihood: N X f (?) = ? log Z? (di ), (7) i=1 with a feasibility constraint that the partition function Z? equals some constant ?. The following result tells us that it suffices to optimize Equation 7 under the given constraint, to optimize Equation 6. Theorem 3 Let ? be a positive constant, and let g(?) be a (feasibility) function satisfying Zg(?) = ? and g(?xa ) ? ?xa for all ?xa .7 For every point ?, if g(?) is optimal for Equation 7, subject to its 7 Here, g(?xa ) denotes the component of g(?) corresponding to ?xa . Moreover, the function g(?) can be constructed, e.g., by simply multiplying all entries of one parameter set by ?/Z? . In our experiments, we 5 constraint, then it is also optimal for Equation 6. Moreover, a point ? is stationary for Equation 6 iff the point g(?) is stationary for Equation 7, subject to its constraint. With Equation 7 as a new (constrained) objective function for estimating the parameters of a Markov network, we can now cast it in the terms of Section 2. We start by characterizing its sub-functions. Theorem 4 For a given parameter set ?Xa , the objective function of Equation 7 has sub-functions: f?? (?Xa ) = ? N X i=1 log X Cxi a ? ?xa subject to xa X Cxa ? ?xa = ? (8) xa where Cxi a and Cxa are constants that are independent of the parameter set ?Xa : Cxi a = Z?? (xa , di )/?x? a and Cxa = Z?? (xa )/?x? a . Note that computing these constants requires inference on a Markov network with parameters ?? .8 Interestingly, this sub-function is convex, as well as the constraint (which is now linear), resulting in a unique optimum, as in Bayesian networks. However, even when ?? is a feasible point, the unique optima of these sub-functions may not be feasible when combined. Thus, the feasibility function g(?) of Theorem 3 must be utilized in this case. We now have another instance of the iterative algorithm proposed in Section 2, but for undirected graphical models. That is, we have just derived an EDML algorithm for such models. 5 EDML under Complete Data We consider now how EDML simplifies under complete data for both Bayesian and Markov networks, identifying forms and properties of the corresponding sub-functions under complete data. We start with Bayesian networks. Consider a variable X, and a parent instantiation u; and let D#(xu) represent the number of examples that Pcontain xu in the complete dataset D. Equation 2 of Theorem 1 then reduces to: f?? (?X|u ) = ? x D#(xu) log ?x|u + C, where C is a constant that is independent of parameter set ?X|u . Assuming that ?? is feasible (i.e., each ?X|u satisfies the sumto-one constraint), the unique optimum of this sub-function is ?x|u = D#(xu) D#(u) , which is guaranteed to yield a feasible point ?, globally. Hence, EDML produces the unique optimal estimates in its first iteration and terminates immediately thereafter. The situation is different, however, for Markov P networks. Under a complete dataset D, Equation 8 of Theorem 4 reduces to: f?? (?Xa ) = ? xa D#(xa ) log ?xa + C, where C is a constant that is independent of parameter set ?Xa . Assuming that ?? is feasible (i.e., satisfies Z?? = ?), the ? D#(xa ) unique optimum of this sub-function has the closed form: ?xa = N Cxa , which is equivalent to the unique optimum one would obtain in a sub-function for Equation 6 [15, 13]. Contrary to Bayesian networks, the collection of these optima for different parameter sets do not necessarily yield a feasible point ?. Hence, the feasibility function g of Theorem 3 must be applied here. The resulting feasible point, however, may no longer be a stationary point for the corresponding sub-functions, leading EDML to iterate further. Hence, under complete data, EDML for Bayesian networks converges immediately, while EDML for Markov networks may take multiple iterations. Both results are consistent with what is already known in the literature on parameter estimation for Bayesian and Markov networks. The result on Bayesian networks is useful in confirming that EDML performs optimally in this case. The result for Markov networks, however, gives rise to a new algorithm for parameter estimation under complete data. We evaluate the performance of this new EDML algorithm after considering the following example. Let D be a complete dataset over three variables A, B and C, specified in terms of the number of times that each instantiation a, b, c appears in D. In particular, we have the following counts: normalize each parameter set to sum-to-one, but then update the constant ? = Z?t for the subsequent iteration. 8 Theorem 4 assumes that ?x? a 6= 0. In general, Cxi a = 6 ?Z?? (di ) , ??xa and Cxa = ?Z?? ??xa . See also Footnote 3. Table 1: Speed-up results of EDML over CG and L-BFGS problem #vars zero 256 one 256 two 256 three 256 four 256 five 256 six 256 seven 256 eight 256 nine 256 54.wcsp 67 or-chain-42 385 or-chain-45 715 or-chain-147 410 or-chain-148 463 or-chain-225 467 rbm20 40 Seg2-17 228 Seg7-11 235 Family2Dominant.1.5loci 385 Family2Recessive.15.5loci 385 grid10x10.f5.wrap 100 grid10x10.f10.wrap 100 average 275.65 icg iedml tcg (S) 45 105 3.62 3.90x 104 73 8.25 13.26x 46 154 3.73 2.83x 43 169 3.58 2.52x 56 126 4.59 4.31x 43 155 3.48 2.70x 48 150 3.93 3.13x 57 147 4.64 3.37x 48 155 3.82 2.84x 56 168 4.46 3.15x 107.33 160.33 6.56 2.78x 120.33 27 0.12 31.27x 151 33.67 0.14 12.52x 107.67 18.67 3.27 80.72x 122.67 42.33 1.00 49.04x 181.33 58 0.79 44.14x 9 41 30.98 2.38x 63 83.66 1.77 7.00x 54.3 84 1.86 2.84x 117.33 88 2.39 5.90x 111.6 89.7 1.31 3.85x 136.67 239 17.36 6.26x 101.33 62.33 12.39 20.92x 83.89 101.29 5.39 13.55x il-bfgs i0edml tl-bfgs (S 0 ) 24 74 1.64 1.98x 58 42 3.87 8.08x 21 87 1.54 1.54x 52 169 3.55 1.93x 61 115 3.90 3.22x 49 155 3.20 1.90x 20 90 1.47 1.40x 23 89 1.65 1.62x 57 154 3.83 2.28x 45 141 2.90 1.94x 68.33 172 1.80 0.72x 110 54.33 0.06 6.43x 94.33 36.33 0.06 4.85x 105 58.33 1.63 12.77x 80 32 0.28 14.24x 137.67 69 0.33 10.76x 30 107.22 30.18 0.99x 46.67 64.67 0.74 4.14x 48.66 73.33 1.27 2.32x 85.67 78.33 1.04 2.69x 86.33 81.67 0.74 2.18x 142 180.33 10.30 4.63x 92.67 59 5.94 9.70x 66.84 94.89 3.56 4.45x D#(a, b, c) = 4, D#(a, b, c?) = 18, D#(a, ?b, c) = 2, D#(a, ?b, c?) = 13, D#(? a, b, c) = 1, D#(? a, b, c?) = 1, D#(? a, ?b, c) = 42, and D#(? a, ?b, c?) = 19. Suppose we want to learn, from this dataset, a Markov network with 3 edges, (A, B), (B, C) and (A, C), with the corresponding ? ? ? parameter sets ?AB , ?BC and ?AC . If the initial set of parameters ?? = (?AB , ?BC , ?AC ) is uniform, ? i.e., ?XY = (1, 1, 1, 1), then Equation 8 gives the sub-function f?? (?AB ) = ?22 ? log ?ab ? 15 ? log ?a?b ? 2 ? log ?a?b ? 61 ? log ?a??b . Moreover, we have Z?? = 2 ? ?ab + 2 ? ?a?b + 2 ? ?a?b + 2 ? ?a??b . Minimizing f?? (?AB ) under Z?? = ? = 2 corresponds to solving a convex optimization problem, 22 15 2 61 , 100 , 100 , 100 ). We solve similar convex which has the unique solution: (?ab , ?a?b , ?a?b , ?a?b ) = ( 100 optimization problems for the other parameter sets ?BC and ?AC , to update estimates ?? . We then apply an appropriate feasibility function g (see Footnote 7), and repeat until convergence. 6 Experimental Results We evaluate now the efficiency of EDML, conjugate gradient (CG) and Limited-memory BFGS (L-BFGS), when learning Markov networks under complete data.9 We first learned grid-structured pairwise MRFs from the CEDAR dataset of handwritten digits, which has 10 datasets (one for each digit) of 16?16 binary images. We also simulated datasets from networks used in the probabilistic inference evaluations of UAI-2008, 2010 and 2012, that are amenable to jointree inference.10 For each network, we simulated 3 datasets of size 210 examples each, and learned parameters using the original structure. Experiments were run on a 3.6GHz Intel i5 CPU with access to 8GB RAM. We used the CG implementation in the Apache Commons Math library, and the L-BFGS implementation in Mallet.11 Both are Java libraries, and our implementation of EDML is also in Java. More importantly, all of the CG, L-BFGS, and EDML methods rely on the same underlying engine for 9 We also considered Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) as a baseline. However, IPF does not scale to our benchmarks, as it invokes inference many times more often than the methods we considered. 10 Network 54.wcsp is a weighted CSP problem; or-chain-{42, 45, 147, 148, 225} are from the Promedas suite; rbm-20 is a restricted Boltzmann machine; Seg2-17, Seg7-11 are from the Segmentation suite; family2-dominant.1.5loci, family2-recessive.15.5loci are genetic linkage analysis networks; and grid10x10.f5.wrap, grid10x10.10.wrap are 10x10 grid networks. 11 Available at http://commons.apache.org/ and http://mallet.cs.umass.edu/. 7 exact inference.12 For EDML, we damped parameter estimates at each iteration, which is typical for algorithms like loopy belief propagation, which EDML was originally inspired by [5].13 We used Brent?s method with default settings for line search in CG, which was the most efficient over all univariate solvers in Apache?s library, which we evaluated in initial experiments. We first run CG until convergence (or after exceeding 30 minutes) to obtain parameter estimates of some quality qcg (in log likelihood), recording the number of iterations icg and time tcg required in minutes. EDML is then run next until it obtains an estimate of the same quality qcg , or better, recording also the number of iterations iedml and time tedml in minutes. The time speed-up S of EDML over CG is computed as tcg /tedml . We also performed the same comparison with LBFGS instead of CG, recording the corresponding number of iterations (il-bfgs , i0edml ) and time taken (tl-bfgs , t0edml ), giving us the speed-up of EDML over L-BFGS as S 0 = tl-bfgs /t0edml . Table 1 shows results for both sets of experiments. It shows the number of variables in each network (#vars), the average number of iterations taken by each algorithm, and the average speed-up achieved by EDML over CG (L-BFGS).14 On the given benchmarks, we see that on average EDML was roughly 13.5? faster than CG, and 4.5? faster than L-BFGS. EDML was up to an order-ofmagnitude faster than L-BFGS in some cases. In many cases, EDML required more iterations but was still faster in time. This is due in part by the number of times inference is invoked by CG and L-BFGS (in line search), whereas EDML only needs to invoke inference once per iteration. 7 Related Work As an iterative fixed-point algorithm, we can view EDML as a Jacobi-type method, where updates are performed in parallel [1]. Alternatively, a version of EDML using Gauss-Seidel iterations would update each parameter set in sequence using the most recently computed update. This leads to an algorithm that monotonically improves the log likelihood at each update. In this case, we obtain a coordinate descent algorithm, Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) [9], as a special case of EDML. The notion of fixing all parameters, except for one, has been exploited before for the purposes of optimizing the log likelihood of a Markov network, as a heuristic for structure learning [15]. This notion also underlies the IPF algorithm; see, e.g., [13], Section 19.5.7. In the case of complete data, the resulting sub-function is convex, yet for incomplete data, it is not necessarily convex. Optimization methods such as conjugate gradient, and L-BFGS [12], are more commonly used to optimize the parameters of a Markov network. For relational Markov networks or Markov networks that otherwise assume a feature-based representation [8], evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, in which case one typically optimizes instead the pseudo-log-likelihood [2]. For more on parameter estimation in Markov networks, see [10, 13]. 8 Conclusion In this paper, we provided an abstract and simple view of the EDML algorithm, originally proposed for parameter estimation in Bayesian networks, as a particular method for continuous optimization. One consequence of this view is that it is immediate that fixed-points of EDML are stationary points of the log-likelihood, and vice-versa [16]. A more interesting consequence, is that it allows us to propose an EDML algorithm for a new class of models, Markov networks. Empirically, we find that EDML can more efficiently learn parameter estimates for Markov networks under complete data, compared to conjugate gradient and L-BFGS, sometimes by an order-of-magnitude. The empirical evaluation of EDML for Markov networks under incomplete data is left for future work. Acknowledgments This work has been partially supported by ONR grant #N00014-12-1-0423. 12 For exact inference in Markov networks, we employed a jointree algorithm from the S AM I AM inference library, http://reasoning.cs.ucla.edu/samiam/. 13 We start with an initial factor of 12 , which we tighten as we iterate. 14 For CG, we used a threshold based on relative change in the likelihood at 10?4 . We used Mallet?s default convergence threshold for L-BFGS. 8 References [1] Dimitri P. Bertsekas and John N. Tsitsiklis. Parallel and Distributed Computation: Numerical Methods. Prentice-Hall, 1989. [2] J. Besag. Statistical Analysis of Non-Lattice Data. The Statistician, 24:179?195, 1975. [3] Stephen Boyd and Lieven Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [4] Hei Chan and Adnan Darwiche. On the revision of probabilistic beliefs using uncertain evidence. AIJ, 163:67?90, 2005. [5] Arthur Choi, Khaled S. Refaat, and Adnan Darwiche. 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Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 19:191?201, 1995. [12] D. C. Liu and J. Nocedal. On the Limited Memory BFGS Method for Large Scale Optimization. Mathematical Programming, 45(3):503?528, 1989. [13] Kevin Patrick Murphy. Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. MIT Press, 2012. [14] James Park and Adnan Darwiche. A differential semantics for jointree algorithms. AIJ, 156:197?216, 2004. [15] Stephen Della Pietra, Vincent J. Della Pietra, and John D. Lafferty. Inducing features of random fields. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 19(4):380?393, 1997. [16] Khaled S. Refaat, Arthur Choi, and Adnan Darwiche. New advances and theoretical insights into EDML. In UAI, pages 705?714, 2012. 9
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Projecting Ising Model Parameters for Fast Mixing Xianghang Liu NICTA, The University of New South Wales [email protected] Justin Domke NICTA, The Australian National University [email protected] Abstract Inference in general Ising models is difficult, due to high treewidth making treebased algorithms intractable. Moreover, when interactions are strong, Gibbs sampling may take exponential time to converge to the stationary distribution. We present an algorithm to project Ising model parameters onto a parameter set that is guaranteed to be fast mixing, under several divergences. We find that Gibbs sampling using the projected parameters is more accurate than with the original parameters when interaction strengths are strong and when limited time is available for sampling. 1 Introduction High-treewidth graphical models typically yield distributions where exact inference is intractable. To cope with this, one often makes an approximation based on a tractable model. For example, given some intractable distribution q, mean-field inference [14] attempts to minimize KL(p||q) over p ? TRACT, where TRACT is the set of fully-factorized distributions. Similarly, structured meanfield minimizes the KL-divergence, but allows TRACT to be the set of distributions that obey some tree [16] or a non-overlapping clustered [20] structure. In different ways, loopy belief propagation [21] and tree-reweighted belief propagation [19] also make use of tree-based approximations, while Globerson and Jaakkola [6] provide an approximate inference method based on exact inference in planar graphs with zero field. In this paper, we explore an alternative notion of a ?tractable? model. These are ?fast mixing? models, or distributions that, while they may be high-treewidth, have parameter-space conditions guaranteeing that Gibbs sampling will quickly converge to the stationary distribution. While the precise form of the parameter space conditions is slightly technical (Sections 2-3), informally, it is simply that interaction strengths between neighboring variables are not too strong. In the context of the Ising model, we attempt to use these models in the most basic way possible? by taking an arbitrary (slow-mixing) set of parameters, projecting onto the fast-mixing set, using four different divergences. First, we show how to project in the Euclidean norm, by iteratively thresholding a singular value decomposition (Theorem 7). Secondly, we experiment with projecting using the ?zero-avoiding? divergence KL(q||p). Since this requires taking (intractable) expectations with respect to q, it is of only theoretical interest. Third, we suggest a novel ?piecewise? approximation of the KL divergence, where one drops edges from both q and p until a low-treewidth graph remains where the exact KL divergence can be calculated. Experimentally, this does not perform as well as the true KL-divergence, but is easy to evaluate. Fourth, we consider the ?zero forcing? divergence KL(q||p). Since this requires expectations with respect to p, which is constrained to be fast-mixing, it can be approximated by Gibbs sampling, and the divergence can be minimized through stochastic approximation. This can be seen as a generalization of mean-field where the set of approximating distributions is expanded from fully-factorized to fast-mixing. 1 2 Background The literature on mixing times in Markov chains is extensive, including a recent textbook [10]. The presentation in the rest of this section is based on that of Dyer et al. [4]. Given a distribution p(x), one will often wish to draw samples from it. While in certain cases (e.g. the Normal distribution) one can obtain exact samples, for Markov random fields (MRFs), one must generally resort to iterative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that obtain a sample asymptotically. In this paper, we consider the classic Gibbs sampling method [5], where one starts with some configuration x, and repeatedly picks a node i, and samples xi from p(xi |x?i ). Under mild conditions, this can be shown to sample from a distribution that converges to p as t ? ?. It is common to use more sophisticated methods such as block Gibbs sampling, the Swendsen-Wang algorithm [18], or tree sampling [7]. In principle, each algorithm could have unique parameter-space conditions under which it is fast mixing. Here, we focus on the univariate case for simplicity and because fast mixing of univariate Gibbs is sufficient for fast mixing of some other methods [13]. Definition 1. Given two finite distributions p and q, the total variation distance || ? ||T V is 1! ||p(X) ? q(X)||T V = |p(X = x) ? q(X = x)|. 2 x We need a property of a distribution that can guarantee fast mixing. The dependency Rij of xi on xj is defined by considering two configurations x and x" , and measuring how much the conditional distribution of xi can vary when xk = x"k for all k $= j. Definition 2. Given a distribution p, the dependency matrix R is defined by Rij = max x,x! :x?j =x!?j ||p(Xi |x?i ) ? p(Xi |x"?i )||T V . Given some threshold !, the mixing time is the number of iterations needed to guarantee that the total variation distance of the Gibbs chain to the stationary distribution is less than !. Definition 3. Suppose that {X t } denotes the sequence of random variables corresponding to running Gibbs sampling on some distribution p. The mixing time ? (!) is the minimum time t such that the total variation distance between X t and the stationary distribution is at most !. That is, ? (!) = min{t : d(t) < !}, d(t) = max ||P(X t |X 0 = x) ? p(X)||T V . x Unfortunately, the mixing time can be extremely long, which makes the use of Gibbs sampling delicate in practice. For example, for the two-dimensional Ising model with zero field and uniform interactions, it is known that mixing time is polynomial (in the size of the grid) when the interaction strengths are below a threshold ?c , and exponential for stronger interactions [11]. For more general distributions, such tight bounds are not generally known, but one can still derive sufficient conditions for fast mixing. The main result we will use is the following [8]. Theorem 4. Consider the dependency matrix R corresponding to some distribution p(X1 , ..., Xn ). For Gibbs sampling with random updates, if ||R||2 < 1, the mixing time is bounded by ? (!) ? "n# n . ln 1 ? ||R||2 ! Roughly speaking, if the spectral norm (maximum singular value) of R is less than one, rapid mixing will occur. A similar result holds in the case of systematic scan updates [4, 8]. Some of the classic ways of establishing fast mixing can be seen as special cases of this. For example, the Dobrushin $ criterion is that ||R||1 < 1, which can be easier to verify in many cases, since ||R||1 = maxj i |Rij | does not require the computation of singular values. However, for symmetric matrices, it can be shown that ||R||2 ? ||R||1 , meaning the above result is tighter. 2 3 Mixing Time Bounds For variables xi ? {?1, +1}, an Ising model is of the form ? ? # # ?i xi ? A(?, ?)? , p(x) = exp ? ?ij xi xj + i i,j where ?ij is the interaction strength between variables i and j, ?i is the ?field? for variable i, and A ensures normalization. This can be seen as a member of the exponential family p(x) = exp (? ? f (x) ? A(?)) , where f (x) = {xi xj ?(i, j)} ? {xi ?i} and ? contains both ? and ?. Lemma 5. For an Ising model, the dependency matrix is bounded by Rij ? tanh |?ij | ? |?ij | Hayes [8] proves this for the case of constant ? and zero-field, but simple modifications to the proof can give this result. Thus, to summarize, an Ising model can be guaranteed to be fast mixing if the spectral norm of the absolute value of interactions terms is less than one. 4 Projection In this section, we imagine that we have some set of parameters ?, not necessarily fast mixing, and would like to obtain another set of parameters ? which are as close as possible to ?, but guaranteed to be fast mixing. This section derives a projection in the Euclidean norm, while Section 5 will build on this to consider other divergence measures. We will use the following standard result that states that given a matrix A, the closest matrix with a maximum spectral norm can be obtained by thresholding the singular values. Theorem 6. If A has a singular value decomposition A = U SV T , and ||?||F denotes the Frobenius ! norm, then B = arg min ||A ? B||F can be obtained as B = U S " V T , where Sii = min(Sii , c2 ). B:||B||2 ?c We denote this projection by B = ?c [A]. This is close to providing an algorithm for obtaining the closest set of Ising model parameters that obey a given spectral norm constraint. However, there are two issues. First, in general, even if A is sparse, the projected matrix B will be dense, meaning that projecting will destroy a sparse graph structure. Second, this result constrains the spectral norm of B itself, rather than R = |B|, which is what needs to be controlled. The theorem below provides a dual method that fixed these issues. Here, we take some matrix Z that corresponds to the graph structure, by setting Zij = 0 if (i, j) is an edge, and Zij = 1 otherwise. Then, enforcing that B obeys the graph structure is equivalent to enforcing that Zij Bij = 0 for all (i, j). Thus, finding the closest set of parameters B is equivalent to solving min ||A ? B||F subject to ||D||2 ? c, Zij Dij = 0, D = |B|. (1) B,D We find it convenient to solve this minimization by performing some manipulations, and deriving a dual. The proof of this theorem is provided in the appendix. To accomplish the maximization of g over M and ?, we use LBFGS-B [1], with bound constraints used to enforce that M ? 0. & The following theorem uses the ?triple dot product? notation of A ? B ? C = ij Aij Bij Cij . Theorem 7. Define R = |A|. The minimization in Eq. 1 is equivalent to the problem of maxM?0,? g(?, M ), where the objective and gradient of g are, for D(?, M ) = ?c [R+M ??'Z], g(?, M ) = 1 ||D(?, M ) ? R||2F + ? ? Z ? D(?, M ) 2 dg = Z ' D(?, M ) d? dg = D(?, M ). dM 3 (2) (3) (4) 5 Divergences Again, we would like to find a parameter vector ? that is close to a given vector ?, but is guaranteed to be fast mixing, but with several notions of ?closeness? that vary in terms of accuracy and computational convenience. Formally, if ? is the set of parameters that we can guarantee to be fast mixing, and D(?, ?) is a divergence between ? and ?, then we would like to solve arg min D(?, ?). (5) ??? As we will see, in selecting D there appears to be something of a trade-off between the quality of the approximation, and the ease of computing the projection in Eq. 5. In this section, we work with the generic exponential family representation p(x; ?) = exp(? ? f (x) ? A(?)). We use ? to denote the mean value of f . By a standard result, this is equal to the gradient of A, i.e. ?(?) = ! x p(x; ?)f (x) = ?A(?). 5.1 Euclidean Distance The simplest divergence is simply the l2 distance between the parameter vectors, D(?, ?) = ||? ? ?||2 . For the Ising model, Theorem 7 provides a method to compute the projection arg min??? ||?? ?||2 . While simple, this has no obvious probabilistic interpretation, and other divergences perform better in the experiments below. However, it also forms the basis of our projected gradient descent strategy for computing the projection in Eq. 5 under more general divergences D. Specifically, we will do this by iterating d 1. ? " ? ? ? ? d? D(?, ?) 2. ? ? arg min??? ||? " ? ?||2 for some step-size ?. In some cases, dD/d? can be calculated exactly, and this is simply projected gradient descent. In other cases, one needs to estimate dD/d? by sampling from ?. As discussed below, we do this by maintaining a ?pool? of samples. In each iteration, a few Markov chain steps are applied with the current parameters, and then the gradient is estimated using them. Since the gradients estimated at each time-step are dependent, this can be seen as an instance of Ergodic Mirror Descent [3]. This guarantees convergence if the number of Markov chain steps, and the step-size ? are both functions of the total number of optimization iterations. 5.2 KL-Divergence Perhaps the most natural divergence to use would be the ?inclusive? KL-divergence D(?, ?) = KL(?||?) = ! p(x; ?) log x p(x; ?) . p(x; ?) (6) This has the ?zero-avoiding? property [12] that ? will tend to assign some probability to all configurations that ? assigns nonzero probability to. It is easy to show that the derivative is dD(?, ?) = ?(?) ? ?(?), d? (7) where ?? = E? [f (X)]. Unfortunately, this requires inference with respect to both the parameter vectors ? and ?. Since ? will be enforced to be fast-mixing during optimization, one could approximate ?(?) by sampling. However, ? is presumed to be slow-mixing, making ?(?) difficult to compute. Thus, this divergence is only practical on low-treewidth ?toy? graphs. 4 5.3 Piecewise KL-Divergences Inspired by the piecewise likelihood [17] and likelihood approximations based on mixtures of trees [15], we seek tractable approximations of the KL-divergence based on tractable subgraphs. Our motivation is the the following: if ? and ? define the same distribution, then if a certain set of edges are removed from both, they should continue to define the same distribution1. Thus, given some graph T , we define the ?projection? ?(T ) onto the tree such by setting all edge parameters to zero if not part of T . Then, given a set of graphs T , the piecewise KL-divergence is D(?, ?) = max KL(?(T )||?(T )). T Computing the derivative of this divergence is not hard? one simply computes the KL-divergence for each graph, and uses the gradient as in Eq. 7 for the maximizing graph. There is some flexibility of selecting the graphs T . In the simplest case, one could simply select a set of trees (assuring that each edge is covered by one tree), which makes it easy to compute the KLdivergence on each tree using the sum-product algorithm. We will also experiment with selecting low-treewidth graphs, where exact inference can take place using the junction tree algorithm. 5.4 Reversed KL-Divergence We also consider the ?zero-forcing? KL-divergence D(?, ?) = KL(?||?) = ! x p(x; ?) log p(x; ?) . p(x; ?) Theorem 8. The divergence D(?, ?) = KL(?||?) has the gradient ! d D(?, ?) = p(x; ?)(? ? ?) ? f (x) (f (x) ? ?(?)) . d? x Arguably, using this divergence is inferior to the ?zero-avoiding? KL-divergence. For example, since the parameters ? may fail to put significant probability at configurations where ? does, using importance sampling to reweight samples from ? to estimate expectations with respect to ? could have high variance Further, it can be non-convex with respect to ?. Nevertheless, it often work well in practice. Minimizing this divergence under the constraint that the dependency matrix R corresponding to ? have a limited spectral norm is closely related to naive mean-field, which can be seen as a degenerate case where one constrains R to have zero norm. This is easier to work with than the ?zero-avoiding? KL-divergence in Eq. 6 since it involves taking expectations with respect to ?, rather than ?: since ? is enforced to be fast-mixing, these expectations can be approximated by sampling. Specifically, suppose that one has generated a set of samples x1 , ..., xK using the current parameters ?. Then, one can first approximate the marginals "K 1 k by ? ?=K k=1 f (x ), and then approximate the gradient by g? = K $# $ 1 !# (? ? ?) ? f (xk ) f (xk ) ? ? ? . K (8) k=1 It is a standard result that if two estimators are unbiased and independent, the product of the two estimators will also be unbiased. Thus, if one used separate sets of perfect samples to estimate ? ? and g?, then g? would be an unbiased estimator of dD/d?. In practice, of course, we generate the samples by Gibbs sampling, so they are not quite perfect. We find in practice that using the same set of samples twice makes makes little difference, and do so in the experiments. 1 Technically, here, we assume that the exponential family is minimal. However, in the case of an overcomplete exponential family, enforcing this will simply ensure that ? and ? use the same reparameterization. 5 0.35 0.25 0.35 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.25 0.15 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Interaction Strength 3 3.5 0 0 4 Edge Density = 0.3, Attractive Loopy BP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.25 0.05 0.05 1 1.5 2 2.5 Interaction Strength 3 3.5 0 0 4 1 1.5 2 2.5 Interaction Strength 3 3.5 4 3 3.5 4 Edge Density = 0.3, Mixed Loopy BP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0.15 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0 0 Grid, Attractive LBP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 2) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0.2 0.1 0 0 Marginal Error 0.4 Marginal Error Marginal Error 0.3 Grid, Mixed LBP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 2) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) Marginal Error 0.4 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Interaction Strength Figure 1: The mean error of estimated univariate marginals on 8x8 grids (top row) and low-density random graphs (bottom row), comparing 30k iterations of Gibbs sampling after projection to variational methods. To approximate the computational effort of projection (Table 1), sampling on the original parameters with 250k iterations is also included as a lower curve. (Full results in appendix.) 6 Experiments Our experimental evaluation follows that of Hazan and Shashua [9] in evaluating the accuracy of the methods using the Ising model in various configurations. In the experiments, we approximate randomly generated Ising models with rapid-mixing distributions using the projection algorithms described previously. Then, the marginals of rapid-mixing approximate distribution are compared against those of the target distributions by running a Gibbs chain on each. We calculate the mean absolute distance of the marginals as the accuracy measure, with the marginals computed via the exact junction-tree algorithm. We evaluate projecting under the Euclidean distance (Section 5.1), the piecewise divergence (Section 5.3), and the zero-forcing KL-divergence KL(?||?) (Section 5.4). On small graphs, it is possible to minimize the zero-avoiding KL-divergence KL(?||?) by computing marginals using the junctiontree algorithm. However, as minimizing this KL-divergence leads to exact marginal estimates, it doesn?t provide a useful measure of marginal accuracy. Our methods are compared with four other inference algorithms, namely loopy belief-propagation (LBP), Tree-reweighted belief-propagation (TRW), Naive mean-field (MF), and Gibbs sampling on the original parameters. LBP, MF and TRW are among the most widely applied variational methods for approximate inference. The MF algorithm uses a fully factorized distribution as the tractable family, and can be viewed as an extreme case of minimizing the zero forcing KL-divergence KL(?||?) under the constraint of zero spectral norm. The tractable family that it uses guarantees ?instant? mixing but is much more restrictive. Theoretically, Gibbs sampling on the original parameters will produce highly accurate marginals if run long enough. However, this can take exponentially long and convergence is generally hard to diagnose [2]. In contrast, Gibbs sampling on the rapid-mixing approximation is guaranteed to converge rapidly but will result in less accurate marginals asymptotically. Thus, we also include time-accuracy comparisons between these two strategies in the experiments. 6 Grid, Strength 1.5 Grid, Strength 3 Random Graph, Strength 3. Gibbs Steps SVDs Gibbs Steps SVDs Gibbs Steps SVDs 30,000 Gibbs steps 30k / 0.17s 30k / 0.17s 30k / 0.04s 250,000 Gibbs steps 250k / 1.4s 250k / 1.4s 250k / 0.33s Euclidean Projection 22 / 0.04s 78 / 0.15s 17 / .0002s Piecewise-1 Projection 322 / 0.61s 547 / 1.0s 408 / 0.047s KL Projection 30k / 0.17s 265 / 0.55s 30k / 0.17s 471 / 0.94s 30k / 0.04s 300 / 0.037s Table 1: Running Times on various attractive graphs, showing the number of Gibbs passes and Singular Value Decompositions, as well as the amount of computation time. The random graph is based on an edge density of 0.7. Mean-Field, Loopy BP, and TRW take less than 0.01s. 6.1 Configurations Two types of graph topologies are used: two-dimensional 8 ? 8 grids and random graphs with 10 nodes. Each edge is independently present with probability pe ? {0.3, 0.5, 0.7}. Node parameters ?i are uniformly drawn from unif(?dn , dn ) and we fix the field strength to dn = 1.0. Edge parameters ?ij are uniformly drawn from unif(?de , de ) or unif(0, de ) to obtain mixed or attractive interactions respectively. We generate graphs with different interaction strength de = 0, 0.5, . . . , 4. All results are averaged over 50 random trials. To calculate piecewise divergences, it remains to specify the set of subgraphs T . It can be any tractable subgraph of the original distribution. For the grids, one straightforward choice is to use the horizontal and the vertical chains as subgraphs. We also test with chains of treewidth 2. For random graphs, we use the sets of random spanning trees which can cover every edge of the original graphs as the set of subgraphs. A stochastic gradient descent algorithm is applied to minimize the zero forcing KL-divergence KL(?||?). In this algorithm, a ?pool? of samples is repeatedly used to estimate gradients as in Eq. 8. After each parameter update, each sample is updated by a single Gibbs step, consisting of one pass over all variables. The performance of this algorithm can be affected by several parameters, including the gradient search step size, the size of the sample pool, the number of Gibbs updates, and the number of total iterations. (This algorithm can be seen as an instance of Ergodic Mirror Descent [3].) Without intensive tuning of these parameters, we choose a constant step size of 0.1, sample pool size of 500 and 60 total iterations, which performed reasonably well in practice. For each original or approximate distribution, a single chain of Gibbs sampling is run on the final parameters, and marginals are estimated from the samples drawn. Each Gibbs iteration is one pass of systematical scan over the variables in fixed order. Note that this does not take into account the computational effort deployed during projection, which ranges from 30,000 total Gibbs iterations with repeated Euclidean projection (KL(?||?)) to none at all (Original parameters). It has been our experience that more aggressive parameters can lead to this procedure being more accurate than Gibbs in a comparison of total computational effort, but such a scheduling tends to also reduce the accuracy of the final parameters, making results more difficult to interpret. In Section 3.2, we show that for Ising models, a sufficient condition for rapid-mixing is the spectral norm of pairwise weight matrix is less than 1.0. However, we find in practice using a spectral norm bound of 2.5 instead of 1.0 can still preserve the rapid-mixing property and gives better approximation to the original distributions. (See Section 7 for a discussion.) 7 Discussion Inference in high-treewidth graphical models is intractable, which has motivated several classes of approximations based on tractable families. In this paper, we have proposed a new notion of ?tractability?, insisting not that a graph has a fast algorithm for exact inference, but only that it obeys parameter-space conditions ensuring that Gibbs sampling will converge rapidly to the stationary distribution. For the case of Ising models, we use a simple condition that can guarantee rapid mixing, namely that the spectral norm of the matrix of interaction strengths is less than one. 7 Grid, Interaction Strength 4.0, Mixed 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 10 1 10 2 3 4 10 10 10 Number of samples (log scale) 0 0 10 5 10 Edge Density = 0.3, Interaction Strength 3.0, Mixed 0.3 0.1 0.1 1 2 3 4 10 10 10 Number of samples (log scale) 4 5 10 LBP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0.3 0.2 10 3 0.4 0.2 0 0 10 2 10 10 10 Number of samples (log scale) 0.5 Marginal error Marginal error 0.4 1 10 Edge Density = 0.3, Interaction Strength 3.0, Attractive LBP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0.5 LBP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 2) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0.5 Marginal error 0.5 Marginal error Grid, Interaction Strength 4.0, Attractive LBP TRW Mean?Field Original Parameters Euclidean Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 1) Piecewise KL(?||?) (TW 2) KL(?||?) KL(?||?) 0 0 10 5 10 1 10 2 3 4 10 10 10 Number of samples (log scale) 5 10 Figure 2: Example plots of the accuracy of obtained marginals vs. the number of samples. Top: Grid graphs. Bottom: Low-Density Random graphs. (Full results in appendix.) Given an intractable set of parameters, we consider using this approximate family by ?projecting? the intractable distribution onto it under several divergences. First, we consider the Euclidean distance of parameters, and derive a dual algorithm to solve the projection, based on an iterative thresholding of the singular value decomposition. Next, we extend this to more probabilistic divergences. Firstly, we consider a novel ?piecewise? divergence, based on computing the exact KL-divergnce on several low-treewidth subgraphs. Secondly, we consider projecting onto the KL-divergence. This requires a stochastic approximation approach where one repeatedly generates samples from the model, and projects in the Euclidean norm after taking a gradient step. We compare experimentally to Gibbs sampling on the original parameters, along with several standard variational methods. The proposed methods are more accurate than variational approximations. Given enough time, Gibbs sampling using the original parameters will always be more accurate, but with finite time, projecting onto the fast-mixing set to generally gives better results. Future work might extend this approach to general Markov random fields. This will require two technical challenges. First, one must find a bound on the dependency matrix for general MRFs, and secondly, an algorithm is needed to project onto the fast-mixing set defined by this bound. Fast-mixing distributions might also be used for learning. E.g., if one is doing maximum likelihood learning using MCMC to estimate the likelihood gradient, it would be natural to constrain the parameters to a fast mixing set. One weakness of the proposed approach is the apparent looseness of the spectral norm bound. For the two dimensional Ising model with no univariate terms, and a constant interaction strength ?, ? there is a well-known threshold ?c = 12 ln(1 + 2) ? .4407, obtained using more advanced techniques than the spectral norm [11]. Roughly, for ? < ?c , mixing is known to occur quickly (polynomial in the grid size) while for ? > ?c , mixing is exponential. On the other hand, the spectral bound norm will be equal to one for ? = .25, meaning the bound is too conservative in this case by a factor of ?c /.25 ? 1.76. A tighter bound on when rapid mixing will occur would be more informative. 8 References [1] Richard H. Byrd, Peihuang Lu, Jorge Nocedal, and Ciyou Zhu. A limited memory algorithm for bound constrained optimization. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 16(5):1190?1208, 1995. [2] Mary Kathryn Cowles and Bradley P. Carlin. Markov chain monte carlo convergence diagnostics: A comparative review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91:883?904, 1996. [3] John C. Duchi, Alekh Agarwal, Mikael Johansson, and Michael I. Jordan. Ergodic mirror descent. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 22(4):1549?1578, 2012. [4] Martin E. Dyer, Leslie Ann Goldberg, and Mark Jerrum. Matrix norms and rapid mixing for spin systems. Ann. Appl. Probab., 19:71?107, 2009. [5] Stuart Geman and Donald Geman. Stochastic relaxation, gibbs distributions, and the bayesian restoration of images. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 6(6):721?741, 1984. [6] Amir Globerson and Tommi Jaakkola. Approximate inference using planar graph decomposition. In NIPS, pages 473?480, 2006. [7] Firas Hamze and Nando de Freitas. From fields to trees. In UAI, 2004. [8] Thomas P. Hayes. A simple condition implying rapid mixing of single-site dynamics on spin systems. In FOCS, pages 39?46, 2006. [9] Tamir Hazan and Amnon Shashua. Convergent message-passing algorithms for inference over general graphs with convex free energies. In UAI, pages 264?273, 2008. [10] David A. Levin, Yuval Peres, and Elizabeth L. Wilmer. Markov chains and mixing times. American Mathematical Society, 2006. [11] Eyal Lubetzky and Allan Sly. Critical Ising on the square lattice mixes in polynomial time. Commun. Math. Phys., 313(3):815?836, 2012. [12] Thomas Minka. Divergence measures and message passing. Technical report, 2005. [13] Yuval Peres and Peter Winkler. Can extra updates delay mixing? arXiv/1112.0603, 2011. [14] C. Peterson and J. R. Anderson. A mean field theory learning algorithm for neural networks. Complex Systems, 1:995?1019, 1987. [15] Patrick Pletscher, Cheng S. Ong, and Joachim M. Buhmann. Spanning Tree Approximations for Conditional Random Fields. In AISTATS, 2009. [16] Lawrence K. Saul and Michael I. Jordan. Exploiting tractable substructures in intractable networks. In NIPS, pages 486?492, 1995. [17] Charles Sutton and Andrew Mccallum. Piecewise training for structured prediction. Machine Learning, 77:165?194, 2009. [18] Robert H. Swendsen and Jian-Sheng Wang. Nonuniversal critical dynamics in monte carlo simulations. Phys. Rev. Lett., 58:86?88, Jan 1987. [19] Martin Wainwright, Tommi Jaakkola, and Alan Willsky. A new class of upper bounds on the log partition function. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51(7):2313?2335, 2005. [20] Eric P. Xing, Michael I. Jordan, and Stuart Russell. A generalized mean field algorithm for variational inference in exponential families. In UAI, 2003. [21] Jonathan Yedidia, William Freeman, and Yair Weiss. Constructing free energy approximations and generalized belief propagation algorithms. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51:2282?2312, 2005. 9
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Embed and Project: Discrete Sampling with Universal Hashing Stefano Ermon, Carla P. Gomes Dept. of Computer Science Cornell University Ithaca NY 14853, U.S.A. Ashish Sabharwal IBM Watson Research Ctr. Yorktown Heights NY 10598, U.S.A. Bart Selman Dept. of Computer Science Cornell University Ithaca NY 14853, U.S.A. Abstract We consider the problem of sampling from a probability distribution defined over a high-dimensional discrete set, specified for instance by a graphical model. We propose a sampling algorithm, called PAWS, based on embedding the set into a higher-dimensional space which is then randomly projected using universal hash functions to a lower-dimensional subspace and explored using combinatorial search methods. Our scheme can leverage fast combinatorial optimization tools as a blackbox and, unlike MCMC methods, samples produced are guaranteed to be within an (arbitrarily small) constant factor of the true probability distribution. We demonstrate that by using state-of-the-art combinatorial search tools, PAWS can efficiently sample from Ising grids with strong interactions and from software verification instances, while MCMC and variational methods fail in both cases. 1 Introduction Sampling techniques are one of the most widely used approaches to approximate probabilistic reasoning for high-dimensional probability distributions where exact inference is intractable. In fact, many statistics of interest can be estimated from sample averages based on a sufficiently large number of samples. Since this can be used to approximate #P-complete inference problems, sampling is also believed to be computationally hard in the worst case [1, 2]. Sampling from a succinctly specified combinatorial space is believed to much harder than searching the space. Intuitively, not only do we need to be able to find areas of interest (e.g., modes of the underlying distribution) but also to balance their relative importance. Typically, this is achieved using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. MCMC techniques are a specialized form of local search that only allows moves that maintain detailed balance, thus guaranteeing the right occupation probability once the chain has mixed. However, in the context of hard combinatorial spaces with complex internal structure, mixing times are often exponential. An alternative is to use complete or systematic search techniques such as Branch and Bound for integer programming, DPLL for SATisfiability testing, and constraint and answer-set programming (CP & ASP), which are preferred in many application areas, and have witnessed a tremendous success in the past few decades. It is therefore a natural question whether one can construct sampling techniques based on these more powerful complete search methods rather than local search. Prior work in cryptography by Bellare et al. [3] showed that it is possible to uniformly sample witnesses of an NP language leveraging universal hash functions and using only a small number of queries to an NP-oracle. This is significant because samples can be used to approximate #Pcomplete (counting) problems [2], a complexity class believed to be much harder than NP. Practical algorithms based on these ideas were later developed [4?6] to near-uniformly sample solutions of propositional SATisfiability instances, using a SAT solver as an NP-oracle. However, unlike SAT, 1 most models used in Machine Learning, physics, and statistics are weighted (represented, e.g., as graphical models) and cannot be handled using these techniques. We fill this gap by extending this approach, based on hashing-based projections and NP-oracle queries, to the weighted sampling case. Our algorithm, called PAWS, uses a form of approximation by quantization [7] and an embedding technique inspired by slice sampling [8], before applying projections. This parallels recent work [9] that extended similar ideas for unweighted counting to the weighted counting world, addressing the problem of discrete integration. Although in theory one could use that technique to produce samples by estimating ratios of discrete integrals [1, 2], the general sampling-by-counting reduction requires a large number of such estimates (proportional to the number of variables) for each sample. Further, the accuracy guarantees on the sampling probability quickly become loose when taking ratios of estimates. In contrast, PAWS is a more direct and practical sampling approach, providing better accuracy guarantees while requiring a much smaller number of NP-oracle queries per sample. Answering NP-oracle queries, of course, requires exponential time in the worst case, in accordance with the hardness of sampling. We rely on the fact that combinatorial search tools, however, are often extremely fast in practice, and any complete solver can be used as a black box in our sampling scheme. Another key advantage is that when combinatorial search succeeds, our analysis provides a certificate that, with high probability, any samples produced will be distributed within an (arbitrarily small) constant factor of the desired probability distribution. In contrast, with MCMC methods it is generally hard to assess whether the chain has mixed. We empirically demonstrate that PAWS outperforms MCMC as well as variational methods on hard synthetic Ising Models and on a realworld test case generation problem for software verification. 2 Setup and Problem Definition We are given a probability distribution p over a (high-dimensional) discrete set X , where the probability of each item x ? X is proportional to a weight function w : X ? R+ , with R+ being the set of non-negative real numbers. Specifically, given x ? X , its probability p(x) is given by p(x) = w(x) , Z Z= X w(x) x?X where Z is a normalization constant known as the partition function. We assume w is specified compactly, e.g., as the product of factors or in a conjunctive normal form. As our driving example, we consider the case of undirected discrete graphical models [10] with n = |V | random variables {xi , i ? V } where each xi takes values in a finite set Xi . We consider a factor graph representation for a joint probability distribution over elements (or configurations) x ? X = X1 ? ? ? ? ? Xn : p(x) = 1 Y w(x) = ?? ({x}? ). Z Z (1) ??I Q This is a compact representation for p(x) based on the weight function w(x) = ??I ?? ({x}? ), defined as the product of potentials or factors ?? : {x}? 7? R+ , where I is an index set and {x}? ? V the subset of variables factor ?? depends on. For simplicity of exposition, without loss of generality, we will focus on the case of binary variables, where X = {0, 1}n . We consider the fundamental problem of (approximately) sampling from p(x), i.e., designing a randomized algorithm that takes w as input and outputs elements x ? X according to the probability distribution p. This is a hard computational problem in the worst case. In fact, it is more general than NP-complete decision problems (e.g., sampling solutions of a SATisfiability instance specified as a factor graph entails finding at least one solution, or deciding there is none). Further, samples can be used to approximate #P-complete problems [2], such as estimating a marginal probability. 3 Sampling by Embed, Project, and Search Conceptually, our sampling strategy has three steps, described in Sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3, resp. (1) From the input distribution p we construct a new distribution p? that is ?close? to p but more 2 discrete. Specifically, p? is based on a new weight function w? that takes values only in a discrete set of geometrically increasing weights. (2) From p? , we define a uniform probability distribution p?? over a carefully constructed higher-dimensional embedding of X = {0, 1}n . The previous discretization step allows us to specify p?? in a compact form, and sampling from p?? can be seen to be precisely equivalent to sampling from p? . (3) Finally, we indirectly sample from the desired distribution p by sampling uniformly from p?? , by randomly projecting the embedding onto a lowerdimensional subspace using universal hash functions and then searching for feasible states. The first and third steps involve a bounded loss of accuracy, which we can trade off with computational efficiency by setting hyper-parameters of the algorithm. A key advantage is that our technique reduces the weighted sampling problem to that of solving one MAP query (i.e., finding the most likely state) and a polynomial number of feasibility queries (i.e., finding any state with non-zero probability) for the original graphical model augmented (through an embedding) with additional variables and carefully constructed factors. In practice, we use a combinatorial optimization package, which requires exponential time in the worst case (consistent with the hardness of sampling) but is often fast in practice. Our analysis shows that whenever the underlying combinatorial search and optimization queries succeed, the samples produced are guaranteed, with high probability, to be coming from an approximately accurate distribution. 3.1 Weight Discretization We use a geometric discretization of the weights into ?buckets?, i.e., a uniform discretization of the log-probability. As we will see, ?(n) buckets are sufficient to preserve accuracy. Definition 1. Let M = maxx w(x), r > 1, ? > 0, and ? = ?logr (2n /?)?. Partition the  conM figurations into the following weight based disjoint buckets: Bi = {x | w(x) ? rM i+1 , r i }, i = 0, . . . , ? ? 1 and B? = {x | w(x) ? [0, M ]}. The discretized weight function w? : {0, 1}n ? R+ is r? M ? defined as follows: w (x) = ri+1 if x ? Bi for i < ? and w? (x) = 0 if x ? B? . The corresponding discretized probability distribution p? (x) = w? (x)/Z ? where Z ? is the normalization constant. ? 2 Lemma 1. Let ? = rP /(1 ? ?). For all x ? ?l?1 i=0 B? , p(x) and p (x) are within a factor of ? of each other. Furthermore, x?B? p(x) ? ?. Proof. Since w maps to non-negative values, we have Z ? M . Further, X 1 M |B? | ?M ?M 1 X w(x) ? |B? | ? = n ? ? ?. p(x) = Z Z r 2 Z Z x?B? x?B? This proves the second part of the claim. For the first part, note that by construction, Z ? ? Z and ! ??1 X ? X X X X 1 1 w? (x) ? Z? = w(x) ? (1 ? ?)Z. Z? w(x) = r r i=0 i=0 x?Bi x?Bi x?B? Thus Z and Z ? are within a factor of r/(1??) of each other. For all x such that w(x) ? / Bn , recalling that r > 1 > 1 ? ? and that w(x)/r ? w? (x) ? rw(x), we have 1 w(x) w(x) w? (x) w? (x) rw(x) r2 w(x) ? p(x) ? ? ? = p (x) = ? ? = ?p(x). ? rZ rZ ? Z? Z? Z? 1?? Z This finishes the proof that p(x) and p? (x) are within a factor of ? of each other. Remark 1. If the weights w defined by the original graphical model are represented in finite precision (e.g., there are 264 possible weights in double precision floating point), for every b ? 1 there is a possibly large but finite value of ? (such that M/r? is smaller than the smallest representable weight) such that B? is empty and the discretization error ? is effectively zero. 3.2 Embed: From Weighted to Uniform Sampling We now show how to reduce the problem of sampling from the discrete distribution p? (weighted sampling) to the problem of uniformly sampling, without loss of accuracy, from a higherdimensional discrete set into which X = {0, 1}n is embedded. This is inspired by slice sampling [8], and can be intuitively understood as its discrete counterpart where we uniformly sample points (x, y) from a discrete representation of the area under the (y vs. x) probability density function of p? . 3 Definition 2. Let w : X ? R+ , M = maxx w(x), and r = 2b /(2b ? 1). Then the embedding S(w, ?, b) of X in X ? {0, 1}(??1)b is defined as: ( ) b _  M M b?1 b S(w, ?, b) = x, y11 , y12 , . . . , y??1 , y??1 w(x) ? i ? yik , 1 ? i ? ? ? 1; w(x) > ? . r r k=1 Wb Pb where may alternatively be thought of as the linear constraint k=1 yik ? 1. Further, let p?? denote a uniform probability distribution over S(w, ?, b) and n? = n + (? ? 1)b. k k=1 yi Given a compact representation of w within a combinatorial search or optimization framework, the set S(w, ?, b) can often be easily encoded using the disjunctive constraints on the y variables. 1 b Lemma 2. Let (x, y) = (x, y11 , y12 , ? ? ? , y1b , y21 , ? ? ? , y2b , ? ? ? , y??1 ? ? ? , y??1 ) be a sample from p?? , i.e., a uniformly sampled element from S(w, ?, b). Then x is distributed according to p? . Informally, given x ? Bi and x? ? Bi+1 with i + 1 ? l ? 1, there are precisely r = 2b /(2b ? 1) times more valid configurations (x, y) than (x? , y ? ). Thus x is sampled r times more often than x? . A formal proof may be found in the Appendix. 3.3 Project and Search: Uniform Sampling with Hash Functions and an NP-oracle In principle, using the technique of Bellare et al. [3] and n? -wise independent hash functions we can sample purely uniformly from S(w, ?, b) using an NP oracle to answer feasibility queries. However, such hash functions involve constructions that are difficult to implement and reason about in existing combinatorial search methods. Instead, we use a more practical algorithm based on pairwise independent hash functions that can be implemented using parity constraints (modular arithmetic) and still provides accuracy guarantees. The approach is similar to [5], but we include an algorithmic way to estimate the number of parity constraints to be used. We also use the pivot technique from [6] but extend that work in two ways: we introduce a parameter ? (similar to [5]) that allows us to trade off uniformity against runtime and also provide upper bounds on the sampling probabilities. We refer to our algorithm as PArity-basedWeightedSampler (PAWS) and provide its pseudocode as Algorithm 1. The idea is to project by randomly constraining the configuration space using a family of universal hash functions, search for up to P ?surviving? configurations, and then, if fewer than P survive, perform rejection sampling to choose one of them. The number k of constraints or factors (encoding a randomly chosen hash function) to add is determined first; this is where we depart from both Gomes et al. [5], who do not provide a way to compute k, and Chakraborty et al. [6], who do not fix k or provide upper bounds. Then we repeatedly add k such constraints, check whether fewer than P configurations survive, and if so output one configuration chosen using rejection sampling. Intuitively, we need the hashed space to contain no more than P solutions because that is a base case where we know how to produce uniform samples via enumeration. k is a guess (accurate with high probability) of the number of constraints that is likely to reduce (by hashing) the original problem to a situation where enumeration is feasible. If too many or too few configurations survive, the algorithm fails and is run again. The small failure probability, accounting for a potentially poor choice of random hash functions, can be bounded irrespective of the underlying graphical model. A combinatorial optimization procedure is used once in order to determine the maximum weight M through MAP inference. M is used in the discretization step. Subsequently, several feasibility queries are issued to the underlying combinatorial search procedure in order to, e.g., count the number of surviving configurations and produce one as a sample. We briefly review the construction and properties of universal hash functions [11, 12]. Definition 3. H = {h : {0, 1}n ? {0, 1}m } is a family of pairwise independent hash functions if the following two conditions hold when a function H is chosen uniformly at random from H: 1) ?x ? {0, 1}n , the random variable H(x) is uniformly distributed in {0, 1}m ; 2) ?x1 , x2 ? {0, 1}n x1 6= x2 , the random variables H(x1 ) and H(x2 ) are independent. Proposition 1. Let A ? {0, 1}m?n , c ? {0, 1}m . The family H = {hA,c (x) : {0, 1}n ? {0, 1}m } where hA,c (x) = Ax + c mod 2 is a family of pairwise independent hash functions. Further, H is also known to be a family of three-wise independent hash functions [5]. 4 Algorithm 1 Algorithm PAWS for sampling configurations ? according to w 1: procedure C OMPUTE K(n? , ?, P , S) 2: T ? 24 ?ln (n? /?)? ; k ? ?1 ; count ? 0 3: repeat 4: k ? k + 1 ; count ? 0 5: for t = 1, ? ? ? , T do ? 6: Sample hash function hkA,c : {0, 1}n ? {0, 1}k k,t k 7: Let S , {(x, y) ? S, hA,c (x, y) = 0} 8: if |S k,t | < P then /* search for ? P different elements */ 9: count ? count + 1 10: end for 11: until count ? ?T /2? or k = n? 12: return k 13: end procedure 14: procedure PAWS(w : {0, 1}n ? R+ , ?, b, ?, P , ?) 15: M ? maxx w(x) /* compute with one MAP inference query on w 16: S ? S(w, ?, b); n? ? n + b(? ? 1) /* as in Definition 2 17: i ? C OMPUTE K(n? , ?, ?, P , S) + ? ? ? 18: Sample hash fn. hiA,c : {0, 1}n ? {0, 1}i , i.e., uniformly choose A ? {0, 1}i?n , c ? {0, 1}i i i 19: Let S , {(x, y) ? S, hA,c (x, y) = 0} 20: Check if |S i | ? P by searching for at least P different elements 21: if |S i | ? P or |S i | = 0 then 22: return ? /* failure 23: else 24: Fix an arbitrary ordering of S i /* for rejection sampling 25: Uniformly sample p from {0, 1, . . . , P ? 1} 26: if p ? |S i | then 27: Select p-th element (x, y) of S i ; return x 28: else 29: return ? /* failure 30: end procedure */ */ */ */ */ Lemma 3 (see Appendix for a proof) shows that the subroutine C OMPUTE K in Algorithm 1 outputs with high probability a value close to log(|S(w, ?, b)|/P ). The idea is similar to an unweighted version of the WISH algorithm [9] but with tighter guarantees and using more feasibility queries. ? Lemma 3. Let S = S(w, ?, b) ? {0, 1}n , ? > 0, and ? > 0. Further, let P ? min{2, 2?+2 /(2? ? 1)2 }, Z = |S|, kP? = log(Z/P ), and k be the output of procedure C OMPUTE K(n? , ?, P, S). Then, P[kP? ? ? ? k ? kP? + 1 + ?] ? 1 ? ? and C OMPUTE K uses O(n? ln (n? /?)) feasibility queries.  ? ? Lemma 4. Let S = S(w, ?, b) ? {0, 1}n , ? > 0, P ? 2, and ? = log (P + 2 P + 1 + 2)/P . For any ? ? Z, ? > ?, let c(?, P ) = 1 ? 2??? /(1 ? P1 ? 2??? )2 . Then with probability at least 1 ? ? the following holds: PAWS(w, ?, b, ?, P , ?) outputs a sample with probability at least c(?, P )2?(?+?+1) PP?1 and, conditioned on outputting a sample, every element (x, y) ? S(w, ?, b) is selected (Line 27) with probability p?s (x, y) within a constant factor c(?, P ) of the uniform probability p?? (x, y) = 1/|S|. Proof Sketch. For lack of space, we defer details to the Appendix. Briefly, the probability P[? ? S i ] that ? = (x, y) survives is 2?i by the properties of the hash functions in Definition 3, and the probability of being selected by rejection sampling is 1/(P ? 1). Conditioned on ? surviving, the mean and variance of the size of the surviving set |S i | are independent of ? because of 3-wise independence. When kP? ? ? ? k ? kP? + 1 + ? and i = k + ?, ? > ?, on average |S i | < P and the size is concentrated around the mean. Using Chebychev?s inequality, one can upper bound by 1 ? c(?, P ) the probability P[Si ? P | ? ? S i ] that the algorithm fails because |Si | is too large. Note that the bound is independent of ? and lets us bound the probability ps (?) that ? is output:  ?i  2?i 2??? 2 2?i c(?, P ) = 1? ? p (?) ? . (2) s 1 P ?1 P ?1 (1 ? P ? 2??? )2 P ? 1 5 From i = k + ? ? kP? + 1 + ? + ? and summing the lower bound of ps (?) over all ?, we obtain the desired lower bound on the success probability. Note that given ?, ? ? , ps (?) and ps (? ? ) are within a constant factor c(?, P ) of each other from (2). Therefore, the probabilities p?s (?) (for various ?) that ? is output conditioned P on outputting a sample are also within a constant factor of each other. From the normalization ? p?s (?) = 1, one gets the desired result that p?s (x, y) is within a constant factor c(?, P ) of the uniform probability p?? (x, y) = 1/|S|. 3.4 Main Results: Sampling with Accuracy Guarantees Combining pieces from the previous three sections, we have the following main result: Theorem 1. Let w : {0, 1}n ? R+ , ? > 0, b ? 1, ? > 0, and P ? 2. Fix ? ? Z as in Lemma 4, b r = 2P /(2b ?1), ? = ?logr (2n /?)?, ? = r2 /(1??), bucket B? as in Definition 1, and ? = 1/c(?, P ). Then x?B? p(x) ? ? and with probability at least (1 ? ?)c(?, P )2?(?+?+1) PP?1 , PAWS(w, ?, b, ?, P , ?) succeeds and outputs a sample ? from {0, 1}n \ B? . Upon success, each ? ? {0, 1}n \ B? is output with probability p?s (?) within a constant factor ?? of the desired probability p(?) ? w(?). Proof. Success probability follows from Lemma 4. For x ? {0, 1}n \ B? , combining Lemmas 1, 2, 4 we obtain X X 1 1 ?? 1 p(x) ? p? (x) = p (x, y) ? p?s (x, y) = p?s (x) ?? ? ? y:(x,y)?S(w,?,b) y|(x,y)?S(w,?,b) X ? ?p?? (x, y) = ?p? (x) ? ??p(x) y:(x,y)?S(w,?,b) where the first inequality accounts for discretization error from p(x) to p? (x) (Lemma 1), equality follows from Lemma 2, and the sampling error between p?? and p?s is bounded by Lemma 4. The rest is proved in Lemmas 1, 2. Remark 2. By appropriately setting the hyper-parameters b and ? we can make the discretization errors ? and ? arbitrarily small. Although this does not change the number of required feasibility queries, it can significantly increase the runtime of combinatorial search because of the increased search space size |S(w, ?, b)|. Practically, one should set these parameters as large as possible, while ensuring combinatorial searches can be completed within the available time budget. Increasing parameter P improves the accuracy as well, but also increases the number of feasibility queries issued, which is proportional to P (but does not affect the structure of the search space). Similarly, by increasing ? we can make ? arbitrarily small. However, the probability of success of the algorithm decreases exponentially as ? is increased. We will demonstrate in the next section that a practical tradeoff between computational complexity and accuracy can be achieved for reasonably sized problems of interest. Corollary 2. Let w, b, ?, ?, ?, P, ?, and B? be as in Theorem 1, and p?s (?) be the output distribution of PAWS(w, ?, b, ?, P , ?). Let ? : {0, 1}n ? R and ?? = maxx?B? |?(x)| ? k?k? . Then, 1 Ep? [?] ? ??? ? Ep [?] ? ??Ep?s [?] + ??? ?? s where Ep?s [?] can be approximated with a sample average using samples produced by PAWS. 4 Experiments We evaluate PAWS on synthetic Ising Models and on a real-world test case generation problem for software verification. All experiments used Intel Xeon 5670 3GHz machines with 48GB RAM. 4.1 Ising Grids Models We first consider the marginal computation task for synthetic grid-structured Ising models with random interactions (attractive and mixed). Specifically, the corresponding graphical model has n binary variables xi , i = 1, ? ? ? , n, with single node potentials ?i (xi ) = exp(fi xi ) and pairwise 6 1 1 0.9 0.9 Gibbs Belief Propagation WISH PAWS b=1 PAWS b=2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Gibbs Belief Propagation WISH PAWS b=1 PAWS b=2 0.8 Estimated marginals Estimated marginals 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0 0.16 1 True marginals 0.165 0.17 0.175 0.18 0.185 0.19 True marginals (a) Mixed (w = 4.0,f = 0.6) (b) Attractive (w = 3.0,f = 0.45) Figure 1: Estimated marginals vs. true marginals on 8 ? 8 Ising Grid models. Closeness to the 45 degree line indicates accuracy. PAWS is run with b ? {1, 2}, P = 4, ? = 1, and ? = 25 (mixed case) or ? = 40 (attractive case). interactions ?ij (xi , xj ) = exp(wij xi xj ), where fi ?R [?f, f ] and wij ?R [?w, w] in the mixed case, while wij ?R [0, w] in the attractive case. Our implementation of PAWS uses the open source solver ToulBar2 [13] to compute M = maxx w(x) and as an oracle to check the existence of at least P different solutions. We augmented ToulBar2 with the IBM ILOG CPLEX CP Optimizer 12.3 [14] based on techniques borrowed from [15] to efficiently reason about parity constraints (the hash functions) using GaussJordan elimination. We run the subroutine C OMPUTE K in Algorithm 1 only once at the beginning, and then generate all the samples with the same value of i (Line 17). The comparison is with Gibbs sampling, Belief Propagation, and the recent WISH algorithm [9]. Ground truth is obtained using the Junction Tree method [16]. In Figure 1, we show a scatter plot of the estimated vs. true marginal probabilities for two Ising grids with mixed and attractive interactions, respectively, representative of the general behavior in the large-weights regime. Each sampling method is run for 10 minutes. Marginals computed with Gibbs sampling (run for about 108 iterations) are clearly very inaccurate (far from the 45 degree line), an indication that the Markov Chain had not mixed as an effect of the relatively large weights that tend to create barriers between modes which are hard to traverse. In contrast, samples from PAWS provide much more accurate marginals, in part because it does not rely on local search and hence is not directly affected by the energy landscape (with respect to the Hamming metric). Further, we see that we can improve the accuracy by increasing the hyper-parameter b. These results highlight the practical value of having accuracy guarantees on the quality of the samples after finite amounts of time vs. MCMC-style guarantees that hold only after a potentially exponential mixing time. Belief Propagation can be seen from Figure 1 to be quite inaccurate in this large-weights regime. Finally, we also compare to the recent WISH algorithm [9] which uses similar hash-based techniques to estimate the partition function of graphical models. Since producing samples with the general sampling-by-counting reduction [1, 2] or estimating each marginal as the ratio of two partition functions (with and without a variable clamped) would be too expensive (requiring n + 1 calls to WISH) we heuristically run it once and use the solutions of the optimization instances it solves in the inner loop as samples. We see in Figure 1 that while samples produced by WISH can sometimes produce fairly accurate marginal estimates, these estimates can also be far from the true value because of an inherent bias introduced by the arg max operator. 4.2 Test Case Generation for Software Verification Hardware and software verification tools are becoming increasingly important in industrial system design. For example, IBM estimates $100 million savings over the past 10 years from hardware verification tools alone [17]. Given that complete formal verification is often infeasible, the paradigm of choice has become that of randomly generating ?interesting? test cases to stress the code or chip 7 0.018 Theoretical Sample Frequency 0.016 Vars Factors Time (s) MSE (?10 330 785 1710 5.76 bench431 173 410 34.97 4.35 bench115 189 458 52.75 20.74 bench97 170 401 67.03 45.57 bench590 244 527 593.71 8.11 bench105 243 524 842.35 8.56 ) 0.014 0.012 Frequency Instance bench1039 ?5 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Solution (a) Marginals: runtime and mean squared error (b) True vs. observed sampling frequencies. Figure 2: Experiments on software verification benchmark. with the hope of uncovering bugs. Typically, a model based on hard constraints is used to specify consistent input/output pairs, or valid program execution traces. In addition, in some systems, domain knowledge can be specified by experts in the form of soft constraints, for instance to introduce a preference for test cases where operands are zero and bugs are more likely [17]. For our experiments, we focus on software (SW) verification, using an industrial benchmark [18] produced by Microsoft?s SAGE system [19, 20]. Each instance defines a uniform probability distribution over certain valid traces of a computer program. We modify this benchmark by introducing soft constraints defining a weighted distribution over valid traces, indicating traces that meet certain criteria should be sampled more often. Specifically, following Naveh et al. [17] we introduce a preference towards traces where certain registers are zero. The weight is chosen to be a power of two, so that there is no loss of accuracy due to discretization using the previous construction with b = 1. These instances are very difficult for MCMC methods because of the presence of very large regions of zero probability that cannot be traversed and thus can break the ergodicity assumption. Indeed we observed that Gibbs sampling often fails to find a non-zero probability state, and when it finds one it gets stuck there, because there might not be a non-zero probability path from one feasible state to another. In contrast, our sampling strategy is not affected and does not require any ergodicity assumption. Table 2a summarizes the results obtained using the propositional satisfiability (SAT) solver CryptoMiniSAT [21] as the feasibility query oracle for PAWS. CryptoMiniSAT has built-in support for parity constraints Ax = c mod 2. We report the time to collect 1000 samples and the Mean Squared Error (MSE) of the marginals estimated using these samples. We report results only on the subset of instances where we could enumerate all feasible states using the exact model counter Relsat [22] in order to obtain ground truth marginals for MSE computation. We see that PAWS scales to fairly large instances with hundreds of variables and gives accurate estimates of the marginals. Figure 2b shows the theoretical vs. observed sampling frequencies (based on 50000 samples) for a small instance with 810 feasible states (execution traces), where we see that the output distribution p?s is indeed very close to the target distribution p. 5 Conclusions We introduced a new approach, called PAWS, to the fundamental problem of sampling from a discrete probability distribution specified, up to a normalization constant, by a weight function, e.g., by a discrete graphical model. While traditional sampling methods are based on the MCMC paradigm and hence on some form of local search, PAWS can leverage more advanced combinatorial search and optimization tools as a black box. A significant advantage over MCMC methods is that PAWS comes with a strong accuracy guarantee: whenever combinatorial search succeeds, our analysis provides a certificate that, with high probability, the samples are produced from an approximately correct distribution. In contrast, accuracy guarantees for MCMC methods hold only in the limit, with unknown and potentially exponential mixing times. Further, the hyper-parameters of PAWS can be tuned to trade off runtime with accuracy. Our experiments demonstrate that PAWS outperforms competing sampling methods on challenging domains for MCMC. 8 References [1] N.N. Madras. Lectures on Monte Carlo Methods. American Mathematical Society, 2002. ISBN 0821829785. [2] M. Jerrum and A. Sinclair. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method: an approach to approximate counting and integration. Approximation algorithms for NP-hard problems, pages 482? 520, 1997. [3] Mihir Bellare, Oded Goldreich, and Erez Petrank. Uniform generation of NP-witnesses using an NP-oracle. Information and Computation, 163(2):510?526, 2000. [4] Stefano Ermon, Carla P. Gomes, and Bart Selman. Uniform solution sampling using a constraint solver as an oracle. In UAI, pages 255?264, 2012. [5] C.P. Gomes, A. Sabharwal, and B. Selman. Near-uniform sampling of combinatorial spaces using XOR constraints. In NIPS-2006, pages 481?488, 2006. [6] S. Chakraborty, K. Meel, and M. Vardi. A scalable and nearly uniform generator of SAT witnesses. In CAV-2013, 2013. [7] Vibhav Gogate and Pedro Domingos. Approximation by quantization. In UAI, pages 247?255, 2011. [8] Radford M Neal. Slice sampling. Annals of statistics, pages 705?741, 2003. [9] Stefano Ermon, Carla Gomes, Ashish Sabharwal, and Bart Selman. Taming the curse of dimensionality: Discrete integration by hashing and optimization. In ICML, 2013. [10] M.J. Wainwright and M.I. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 1(1-2):1?305, 2008. [11] S. Vadhan. Pseudorandomness. Foundations and Trends in Theoretical Computer Science, 2011. [12] O. Goldreich. Randomized methods in computation. Lecture Notes, 2011. [13] D. Allouche, S. de Givry, and T. Schiex. Toulbar2, an open source exact cost function network solver. Technical report, INRIA, 2010. [14] IBM ILOG. IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio 12.3, 2011. [15] Carla P. Gomes, Willem Jan van Hoeve, Ashish Sabharwal, and Bart Selman. Counting CSP solutions using generalized XOR constraints. In AAAI, 2007. [16] Steffen L Lauritzen and David J Spiegelhalter. Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), pages 157?224, 1988. [17] Yehuda Naveh, Michal Rimon, Itai Jaeger, Yoav Katz, Michael Vinov, Eitan s Marcu, and Gil Shurek. Constraint-based random stimuli generation for hardware verification. AI magazine, 28(3):13, 2007. [18] Clark Barrett, Aaron Stump, and Cesare Tinelli. The Satisfiability Modulo Theories Library (SMT-LIB). www.SMT-LIB.org, 2010. [19] Patrice Godefroid, Michael Y Levin, David Molnar, et al. Automated whitebox fuzz testing. In NDSS, 2008. [20] Patrice Godefroid, Michael Y. Levin, and David Molnar. Sage: Whitebox fuzzing for security testing. Queue, 10(1):20:20?20:27, January 2012. ISSN 1542-7730. [21] M. Soos, K. Nohl, and C. Castelluccia. Extending SAT solvers to cryptographic problems. In SAT-2009. Springer, 2009. [22] Robert J Bayardo and Joseph Daniel Pehoushek. Counting models using connected components. In AAAI-2000, pages 157?162, 2000. 9
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Learning Stochastic Inverses ? Andreas Stuhlmuller Brain and Cognitive Sciences MIT Jessica Taylor Department of Computer Science Stanford University Noah D. Goodman Department of Psychology Stanford University Abstract We describe a class of algorithms for amortized inference in Bayesian networks. In this setting, we invest computation upfront to support rapid online inference for a wide range of queries. Our approach is based on learning an inverse factorization of a model?s joint distribution: a factorization that turns observations into root nodes. Our algorithms accumulate information to estimate the local conditional distributions that constitute such a factorization. These stochastic inverses can be used to invert each of the computation steps leading to an observation, sampling backwards in order to quickly find a likely explanation. We show that estimated inverses converge asymptotically in number of (prior or posterior) training samples. To make use of inverses before convergence, we describe the Inverse MCMC algorithm, which uses stochastic inverses to make block proposals for a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We explore the efficiency of this sampler for a variety of parameter regimes and Bayes nets. 1 Introduction Bayesian inference is computationally expensive. Even approximate, sampling-based algorithms tend to take many iterations before they produce reasonable answers. In contrast, human recognition of words, objects, and scenes is extremely rapid, often taking only a few hundred milliseconds?only enough time for a single pass from perceptual evidence to deeper interpretation. Yet human perception and cognition are often well-described by probabilistic inference in complex models. How can we reconcile the speed of recognition with the expense of coherent probabilistic inference? How can we build systems, for applications like robotics and medical diagnosis, that exhibit similarly rapid performance at challenging inference tasks? One response to such questions is that these problems are not, and should not be, solved from scratch each time they are encountered. Humans and robots are in the setting of amortized inference: they have to solve many similar inference problems, and can thus offload part of the computational work to shared precomputation and adaptation over time. This raises the question of which kinds of precomputation and adaptation are useful. There is substantial previous work on adaptive inference algorithms, including Cheng and Druzdzel (2000); Haario et al. (2006); Ortiz and Kaelbling (2000); Roberts and Rosenthal (2009). While much of this work is focused on adaptation for a single posterior inference, amortized inference calls for adaptation across many different inferences. In this setting, we will often have considerable training data available in the form of posterior samples from previous inferences; how should we use this data to adapt our inference procedure? We consider using training samples to learn the inverse structure of a directed model. Posterior inference is the task of inverting a probabilistic model: Bayes? theorem turns p(d|h) into p(h|d); vision is commonly understood as inverse graphics (Horn, 1977) and, more recently, as inverse physics (Sanborn et al., 2013; Watanabe and Shimojo, 2001); and conditional inference in probabilistic programs can be described as ?running a program backwards? (e.g., Wingate and Weber, 2013). However, while this is a good description of the problem that inference solves, conditional sampling usually does not proceed backwards step-by-step. We suggest taking this view more liter1 ?4 ?2 0 ?10 Observation Observation 0 10 20 30 2 4 6 0 6 illumination 2 4 10 8 Illumination luminance Luminance Luminance ?20?10 0 10 20 30 Luminance Reflectance 20 30 Illumination 10 Reflectance Gaussian 0 Illumination Gamma (noisify luminance) Observation Gaussian ?10 Gamma Reflectance reflectance Luminance luminance Figure 1: A Bayesian network modeling brightness constancy in visual perception, a possible inverse factorization, and two of the local joint distributions that determine the inverse conditionals. ally and actually learning the inverse conditionals needed to invert the model. For example, consider the Bayesian network shown in Figure 1. In addition to the default ?forward? factorization shown on the left, we can consider an ?inverse? factorization shown on the right. Knowing the conditionals for this inverse factorization would allow us to rapidly sample the latent variables given an observation. In this paper, we will explore what these factorizations look like for Bayesian networks, how to learn them, and how to use them to construct block proposals for MCMC. 2 Inverse factorizations Let p be a distribution on latent variables x = (x1 , . . . , xm ) and observed variables y = (y1 , . . . , yn ). A Bayesian network G is a directed acyclic graph that expresses a factorization of this joint distribution in terms of the distribution of each node conditioned on its parents in the graph: n m Y Y p(yj |paG (yj )) p(xi |paG (xi )) p(x, y) = j=1 i=1 When interpreted as a generative (causal) model, the observations y typically depend on a non-empty set of parents, but are not themselves parents of any nodes. In general, a distribution can be represented using many different factorizations. We say that a Bayesian network H expresses an inverse factorization of p if the observations y do not have parents (but may themselves be parents of some xi ): p(x, y) = p(y) m Y p(xi |paH (xi )) i=1 As an example, consider the forward and inverse networks shown in Figure 1. We call the conditional distributions p(xi |paH (xi )) stochastic inverses, with inputs paH (xi ) and output xi . If we could sample from these distributions, we could produce samples from p(x|y) for arbitrary y, which solves the problem of inference for all queries with the same set of observation nodes. In general, there are many possible inverse factorizations. For each latent node, we can find a factorization such that this node does not have children. This fact will be important in Section 4 when we resample subsets of inverse graphs. Algorithm 1 gives a heuristic method for computing an inverse factorization given Bayes net G, observation nodes y, and desired leaf node xi . We compute an ordering on the nodes of the original Bayes net from observations to leaf node. We then add the nodes in order to the inverse graph, with dependencies determined by the graph structure of the original network. In the setting of amortized inference, past tasks provide approximate posterior samples for the corresponding observations. We therefore investigate learning inverses from such samples, and ways of using approximate stochastic inverses for improving the efficiency of solving future inference tasks. 2 Algorithm 1: Heuristic inverse factorization Input: Bayesian network G with latent nodes x and observed nodes y; desired leaf node xi Output: Ordered inverse graph H 1: order x such that nodes close to y are first, leaf node xi is last 2: initialize H to empty graph 3: add nodes y to H 4: for node xj in x do 5: add xj to H 6: set paH (xj ) to a minimal set of nodes in H that d-separates xj from the remainder of H based on the graph structure of G 7: end for 3 Learning stochastic inverses It is easy to see that we can estimate conditional distributions p(xi |paH (xi )) using samples S drawn from the prior p(x, y). For simplicity, consider discrete variables and an empirical frequency estimator: (s) (s) |{s ? S : xi ? paH (xi )}| ?S (xi |paH (xi )) = (s) |{s ? S : paH (xi )| Because ?S is a consistent estimator of the probability of each outcome for each setting of the parent variables, the following theorem follows immediately from the strong law of large numbers: Theorem 1. (Learning from prior samples) Let H be an inverse factorization. For samples S drawn from p(x, y), ?S (xi |paH (xi )) ? p(xi |paH (xi )) almost surely as |S| ? ?. Samples generated from the prior may be sparse in regions that have high probability under the posterior, resulting in slow convergence of the inverses. We now show that valid inverse factorizations allow us to learn from posterior samples as well. Theorem 2. (Learning from posterior samples) Let H be an inverse factorization. For samples S drawn from p(x|y), ?(xi |paH (xi )) ? p(xi |paH (xi )) almost surely as |S| ? ? for values of paH (xi ) that have positive probability under p(x|y). Proof. For values paH (xi ) that are not in the support of p(x|y), ?(xi |paH (xi )) is undefined. For values paH (xi ) in the support, ?(xi |paH (xi )) ? p(xi |paH (xi ), y) almost surely. By definition, any node in a Bayesian network is independent of its non-descendants given its parent variables. The nodes y are root nodes in H and hence do not descend from xi . Therefore, p(xi |paH (xi ), y) = p(xi |paH (xi )) and the theorem holds. Theorem 2 implies that we can use posterior samples from one observation set to learn inverses that apply to all other observation sets?while samples from p(x|y) only provide global estimates for the given posterior, it is guaranteed that the local estimates created by the procedure above are equivalent to the query-independent conditionals p(xi |paH (xi )). In addition, we can combine samples from distributions conditioned on several different observation sets to produce more accurate estimates of the inverse conditionals. In the discussion above, we can replace ? with any consistent estimator of p(xi |paH (xi )). We can also trade consistency for faster learning and generalization. This framework can make use of any supervised machine learning technique that supports sampling from a distribution on predicted outputs. For example, for discrete variables we can employ logistic regression, which provides fast generalization and efficient sampling, but cannot, in general, represent the posterior exactly. Our choice of predictor can be data-dependent?for example, we can add interaction terms to a logistic regression predictor as more data becomes available. For continuous variables, consider a predictor based on k-nearest neighbors that produces samples as follows (Algorithm 2): Given new input values z, retrieve the k previously observed input-output 3 Algorithm 2: K-nearest neighbor density predictor Input: Variable index i, inverse inputs z, samples S, number of neighbors k Output: Sampled value for node xi (1) (k) 1: retrieve k nearest pairs (z (1) , xi ), . . . , (z (k) , xi ) in S based on distance to z (1) (k) 2: construct density estimate q on xi , . . . , xi 3: sample from q pairs that are closest to the current input values. Then, use a consistent density estimator to construct a density estimate on the nearby previous outputs and sample an output xi from the estimated distribution. Showing that this estimator converges to the true conditional density p(x|z) is more subtle. If the conditional densities are smooth in the sense that: ?? > 0 ?? > 0 : ?z1 , z2 d(z1 , z2 ) < ? ? DKL (p(x|z1 ), p(x|z2 )) < ? then we can achieve any desired accuracy of approximation by assuring that the nearest neighbors used all lie within a ?-ball, but that the number of neighbors goes to infinity. We can achieve this by increasing k slowly enough in |S|. The exact rate at which we may increase depends on the distribution and may be difficult to determine. 4 Inverse MCMC We have described how to compute the structure of inverse Bayes nets, and how to learn the associated conditional distributions and densities from prior and posterior samples. This produces fast, but possibly biased recognition models. To get a consistent estimator, we use these recognition models as part of a Metropolis-Hastings scheme that, as the amount of training data grows, converges to Gibbs sampling for proposals of size 1, to blocked-Gibbs for larger proposals, and to perfect posterior sampling for proposals of size |G|. We propose the following Inverse MCMC procedure (Algorithm 3): Offline, use Algorithm 1 to compute an inverse graph for each latent node and train each local inverse in this graph from (posterior or prior) samples. Online, run Metropolis-Hastings with the proposal mechanism shown in Algorithm 4, which resamples a set of up to k variables using the trained inverses1 . With little training data, we will want to make small proposals (small k) in order to achieve a reasonable acceptance rate; with more training data, we can make larger proposals and expect to succeed. Theorem 3. Let G be a Bayesian network, let ? be a consistent estimator (for inverse conditionals), let {Hi }i?1..m be a collection of inverse graphs produced using Algorithm 1, and assume a source of training samples (prior or posterior) with full support. Then, as training set size |S| ? ?, Inverse MCMC with proposal size k converges to block-Gibbs sampling where blocks are the last k nodes in each Hi . In particular, it converges to Gibbs sampling for proposal size k = 1 and to exact posterior sampling for k = |G|. Proof. We must show that proposals are made from the conditional posterior in the limit of large training data. Fix an inverse H, and let x be the last k variables in H. Let paH (x) be the union of H-parents of variables in x that are not themselves in x. By construction according to Algorithm 1, paH (x) form a Markov blanket of x (that is, x is conditionally independent of other variables in G, given paH (x)). Now the conditional distribution over x factorizes along the inverse graph: Q|H| p(x|paH (x)) = i=k p(xi |paH (xi )). But by theorems 1 and 2, the estimators ? converge, when they are defined, to the corresponding conditional distributions, ?(xi |paH (xi )) ? p(xi |paH (xi )); since we assume full support, ?(xi |paH (xi )) is defined wherever p(xi |paH (xi )) is defined. Hence, using the estimated inverses to sequentially sample the x variables results, in the limit, in samples from the conditional distribution given remaining variables. (Note that, in the limit, these proposals will always be accepted.) This is the definition of block-Gibbs sampling. The special cases of k = 1 (Gibbs) and k = |G| (posterior sampling) follow immediately. 1 In a setting where we only ever resample up to k variables, we only need to estimate the relevant inverses, i.e., not all conditionals for the full inverse graph. 4 Algorithm 3: Inverse MCMC Algorithm 4: Inverse MCMC proposer Input: Prior or posterior samples S Output: Samples x(1) , . . . , x(T ) Offline (train inverses): 1: for i in 1 . . . m do 2: Hi ? from Algorithm 1 3: for j in 1 . . . m do 4: train inverse ?S (xj |paHi (xj )) 5: end for 6: end for Online (MH with inverse proposals): 1: for t in 1 . . . T do 2: x0 , pfw , pbw from Algorithm 4 3: x ? x0 with MH acceptance rule 4: end for Input: State x, observations y, ordered inverse graphs {Hi }i?1..m , proposal size kmax , inverses ? Output: Proposed state x0 , forward and backward probabilities pfw and pbw 1: H ? Uniform({Hi }i?1..m ) 2: k ? Uniform({0, 1, . . . , kmax ? 1}) 3: x0 ? x 4: pfw , pbw ? 0 5: for j in n ? k, . . . , n do 6: let xl be jth variable in H 7: x0l ? ?(xl |paH (x0l )) 8: pfw ? pfw ? p? (x0l |paH (x0l )) 9: pbw ? pbw ? p? (xl |paH (xl )) 10: end for Instead of learning the k=1 ?Gibbs? conditionals for each inverse graph, we can often precompute these distributions to ?seed? our sampler. This suggests a bootstrapping procedure for amortized inference on observations y (1) , . . . , y (t) : first, precompute the ?Gibbs? distributions so that k=1 proposals will be reasonably effective; then iterate between training on previously generated approximate posterior samples and doing inference on the next observation. Over time, increase the size of proposals, possibly depending on acceptance ratio or other heuristics. For networks with near-deterministic dependencies, Gibbs may be unable to generate training samples of sufficient quality. This poses a chicken-and-egg problem: we need a sufficiently good posterior sampler to generate the data required to train our sampler. To address this problem, we propose a simple annealing scheme: We introduce a temperature parameter t that controls the extent to which (almost-)deterministic dependencies in a network are relaxed. We produce a sequence of trained samplers, one for each temperature, by generating samples for a network with temperature ti+1 using a sampler trained on approximate samples for the network with next-higher temperature ti . Finally, we discard all samplers except for the sampler trained on the network with t = 0, the network of interest. In the next section, we explore the practicality of such bootstrapping schemes as well as the general approach of Inverse MCMC. 5 Experiments We are interested in networks such that (1) there are many layers of nodes, with some nodes far removed from the evidence, (2) there are many observation nodes, allowing for a variety of queries, and (3) there are strong dependencies, making local Gibbs moves challenging. We start by studying the behavior of the Inverse MCMC algorithm with empirical frequency estimator on a 225-node rectangular grid network from the UAI 2008 inference competition. This network has binary nodes and approximately 50% deterministic dependencies, which we relax to dependencies with strength .99. We select the 15 nodes on the diagonal as observations and remove any nodes below, leaving a triangular network with 120 nodes and treewidth 15 (Figure 2). We compute the true marginals P ? using IJGP (Mateescu et al., 2010), and calculate the error of our estimates P s as error = N 1 X 1 X |P ? (Xi = xi ) ? P s (Xi = xi )|. N i=1 |Xi | xi ?Xi We generate 20 inference tasks as sources of training samples by sampling values for the 15 observation nodes uniformly at random. We precompute the ?final? inverse conditionals as outlined above, producing a Gibbs sampler when k=1. For each inference task, we use this sampler to generate 105 approximate posterior samples. 5 0.08 0.04 0.00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Time (seconds) Figure 2: Schema of the Bayes net structure used in experiment 1. Thick arrows indicate almost-deterministic dependencies, shaded nodes are observed. The actual network has 15 layers with a total of 120 nodes. Inverses (kNN) Error in marginals 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Error in marginals Gibbs Inverses (10x10) Inverses (10x100) Inverses (10x1000) Figure 3: The effect of training on approximate posterior samples for 10 inference tasks. As the number of training samples per task increases, Inverse MCMC with proposals of size 20 performs new inference tasks more quickly. 1e+01 1e+02 1e+03 1e+04 1e+05 Number of training samples Figure 4: Learning an inverse distribution for the brightness constancy model (Figure 1) from prior samples using the KNN density predictor. More training samples result in better estimates after the same number of MCMC steps. Figures 3 and 5 show the effect of training the frequency estimator on 10 inference tasks and testing on a different task (averaged over 20 runs). Inverse proposals of (up to) size k=20 do worse than pure Gibbs sampling with little training (due to higher rejection rate), but they speed convergence as the number of training samples increases. More generally, large proposals are likely to be rejected without training, but improve convergence after training. Figure 6 illustrates how the number of inference tasks influences error and MH acceptance ratio in a setting where the total number of training samples is kept constant. Surprisingly, increasing the number of training tasks from 5 to 15 has little effect on error and acceptance ratio for this network. That is, it seems relatively unimportant which posterior the training samples are drawn from; we may expect different results when posteriors are more sparse. Figure 7 shows how different sources of training data affect the quality of the trained sampler (averaged over 20 runs). As the strength of near-deterministic dependencies increases, direct training on Gibbs samples becomes infeasible. In this regime, we can still train on prior samples and on Gibbs samples for networks with relaxed dependencies. Alternatively, we can employ the annealing scheme outlined in the previous section. In this example, we take the temperature ladder to be [.2, .1, .05, .02, .01, 0]?that is, we start by learning inverses for the relaxed network where all CPT probabilities are constrained to lie within [.2, .8]; we then use these inverses as proposers for MCMC inference on a network constrained to CPT probabilities in [.1, .9], learn the corresponding inverses, and continue, until we reach the network of interest (at temperature 0). While the empirical frequency estimator used in the above experiments provides an attractive asymptotic convergence guarantee (Theorem 3), it is likely to generalize slowly from small amounts of training data. For practical purposes, we may be more interested in getting useful generalizations quickly than converging to a perfect proposal distribution. Fortunately, the Inverse MCMC algorithm can be used with any estimator for local conditionals, consistent or not. We evaluate this idea on a 12-node subset of the network used in the previous experiments. We learn complete inverses, resampling up to 12 nodes at once. We compare inference using a logistic regression estimator with L2 regularization (with and without interaction terms) to inference using the empirical frequency estimator. Figure 9 shows the error (integrated over time to better reflect convergence speed) against the number of training examples, averaged over 300 runs. The regression estimator with interaction terms results in significantly better results when training on few posterior samples, but is ultimately overtaken by the consistent empirical estimator. Next, we use the KNN density predictor to learn inverse distributions for the continuous Bayesian network shown in Figure 1. To evaluate the quality of the learned distributions, we take 1000 6 Error in marginals Acceptance ratio 0.18 25 0.14 20 0.12 15 0.10 0.08 10 0.06 5 2 3 0.9 25 0.8 0.7 20 0.6 0.5 15 0.4 10 0.3 0.2 5 0.04 1 1.0 30 0.16 Maximum proposal size Maximum proposal size 30 4 1 Log10(training samples per task) 2 3 4 Log10(training samples per task) Figure 5: Without training, big inverse proposals result in high error, as they are unlikely to be accepted. As we increase the number of approximate posterior samples used to train the MCMC sampler, the acceptance probability for big proposals goes up, which decreases overall error. Acceptance ratio Error by training source Maximum proposal size 30 0.95 Determinism 0.95 Annealing Relaxed Gibbs Gibbs Prior 0.90 25 0.85 20 0.80 0.75 15 0.65 0.60 5 0.55 5 10 ? ? ? Determinism 0.9999 Annealing Relaxed Gibbs Gibbs Prior 0.70 10 ? ? ? ? ? 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 15 Test error (after 10s) Number of tasks Figure 6: For the network under consideration, increasing the number of tasks (i.e., samples for other observations) we train on has little effect on acceptance ratio (and error) if we keep the total number of training samples constant. Figure 7: For networks without hard determinism, we can train on Gibbs samples. For others, we can use prior samples, Gibbs samples for relaxed networks, and samples from a sequence of annealed Inverse samplers. samples using Inverse MCMC and compare marginals to a solution computed by JAGS (Plummer et al., 2003). As we refine the inverses using forward samples, the error in the estimated marginals decreases towards 0, providing evidence for convergence towards a posterior sampler (Figure 4). To evaluate Inverse MCMC in more breadth, we run the algorithm on all binary Bayes nets with up to 500 nodes that have been submitted to the UAI 08 inference competition (216 networks). Since many of these networks exhibit strong determinism, we train on prior samples and apply the annealing scheme outlined above to generate approximate posterior samples. For training and testing, we use the evidence provided with each network. We compute the error in marginals as described above for both Gibbs (proposal size 1) and Inverse MCMC (maximum proposal size 20). To summarize convergence over the 1200s of test time, we compute the area under the error curves (Figure 8). Each point represents a single run on a single model. We label different classes of networks. For the grid networks, grid-k denotes a network with k% deterministic dependencies. While performance varies across network classes?with extremely deterministic networks making the acquisition of training data challenging?the comparison with Gibbs suggests that learned block proposals frequently help. Overall, these results indicate that Inverse MCMC is of practical benefit for learning block proposals in reasonably large Bayes nets and using a realistic amount of training data (an amount that might result from amortizing over five or ten inferences). 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 10 Gibbs error integral 20 50 100 200 500 Number of training samples Figure 8: Each mark represents a single run of a model from the UAI 08 inference competition. Marks below the line indicate that integrated error over 1200s of inference is lower for Inverse MCMC than Gibbs sampling. 6 0.1 ? ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ???? ? ???? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ????? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?????? ? ?? ? ? Frequency estimator Logistic regression (L2) Logistic regression (L2 + ^2) 0.0 ? Error integral (1s) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 grid?50 grid?75 grid?90 students fs bn2o 0.0 Inverse MCMC error integral ? Figure 9: Integrated error (over 1s of inference) as a function of the number of samples used to train inverses, comparing logistic regression with and without interaction terms to an empirical frequency estimator. Related work A recognition network (Morris, 2001) is a multilayer perceptron used to predict posterior marginals. In contrast to our work, a single global predictor is used instead of small, compositional prediction functions. By learning local inverses our technique generalizes in a more fine-grained way, and can be combined with MCMC to provide unbiased samples. Adaptive MCMC techniques such as those presented in Roberts and Rosenthal (2009) and Haario et al. (2006) are used to tune parameters of MCMC algorithms, but do not allow arbitrarily close adaptation of the underlying model to the posterior, whereas our method is designed to allow such close approximation. A number of adaptive importance sampling algorithms have been proposed for Bayesian networks, including Shachter and Peot (1989), Cheng and Druzdzel (2000), Yuan and Druzdzel (2012), Yu and Van Engelen (2012), Hernandez et al. (1998), Salmeron et al. (2000), and Ortiz and Kaelbling (2000). These techniques typically learn Bayes nets which are directed ?forward?, which means that the conditional distributions must be learned from posterior samples, creating a chicken-and-egg problem. Because our trained model is directed ?backwards?, we can learn from both prior and posterior samples. Gibbs sampling and single-site Metropolis-Hastings are known to converge slowly in the presence of determinism and long-range dependencies. It is well-known that this can be addressed using block proposals, but such proposals typically need to be built manually for each model. In our framework, block proposals are learned from past samples, with a natural parameter for adjusting the block size. 7 Conclusion We have described a class of algorithms, for the setting of amortized inference, based on the idea of learning local stochastic inverses?the information necessary to ?run a model backward?. We have given simple methods for estimating and using these inverses as part of an MCMC algorithm. In exploratory experiments, we have shown how learning from past inference tasks can reduce the time required to estimate quantities of interest. Much remains to be done to explore this framework. Based on our results, one particularly promising avenue is to explore estimators that initially generalize quickly (such as regression), but back off to a sound estimator as the training data grows. Acknowledgments We thank Ramki Gummadi and anonymous reviewers for useful comments. This work was supported by a John S. McDonnell Foundation Scholar Award. 8 References J. Cheng and M. Druzdzel. AIS-BN: An adaptive importance sampling algorithm for evidential reasoning in large bayesian networks. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2000. H. Haario, M. Laine, A. Mira, and E. Saksman. DRAM: efficient adaptive MCMC. Statistics and Computing, 16(4):339?354, 2006. L. D. Hernandez, S. Moral, and A. Salmeron. A Monte Carlo algorithm for probabilistic propagation in belief networks based on importance sampling and stratified simulation techniques. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 18(1):53?91, 1998. B. K. Horn. Understanding image intensities. Artificial intelligence, 8(2):201?231, 1977. R. Mateescu, K. Kask, V. Gogate, and R. Dechter. Join-graph propagation algorithms. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 37(1):279?328, 2010. Q. Morris. Recognition networks for approximate inference in BN20 networks. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., Aug. 2001. L. E. Ortiz and L. P. Kaelbling. Adaptive importance sampling for estimation in structured domains. In Proc. of the 16th Ann. Conf. on Uncertainty in A.I. (UAI-00), pages 446?454. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2000. M. Plummer et al. Jags: A program for analysis of bayesian graphical models using gibbs sampling. URL http://citeseer. ist. psu. edu/plummer03jags. html, 2003. G. Roberts and J. Rosenthal. Examples of adaptive MCMC. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 18(2):349?367, 2009. A. Salmeron, A. Cano, and S. Moral. Importance sampling in Bayesian networks using probability trees. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 34(4):387?413, Oct. 2000. A. N. Sanborn, V. K. Mansinghka, and T. L. Griffiths. Reconciling intuitive physics and Newtonian mechanics for colliding objects. Psychological Review, 120(2):411, Apr. 2013. R. D. Shachter and M. A. Peot. Simulation approaches to general probabilistic inference on belief networks. In Proc. of the 5th Ann. Conf. on Uncertainty in A.I. (UAI-89), pages 311?318, New York, NY, 1989. Elsevier Science. K. Watanabe and S. Shimojo. When sound affects vision: effects of auditory grouping on visual motion perception. Psychological Science, 12(2):109?116, 2001. D. Wingate and T. Weber. Automated variational inference in probabilistic programming. arXiv preprint arXiv:1301.1299, 2013. H. Yu and R. A. Van Engelen. Refractor importance sampling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1206.3295, 2012. C. Yuan and M. J. Druzdzel. Importance sampling in Bayesian networks: An influence-based approximation strategy for importance functions. arXiv preprint arXiv:1207.1422, 2012. 9
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Approximate Gaussian process inference for the drift of stochastic differential equations Andreas Ruttor Computer Science, TU Berlin [email protected] Philipp Batz Computer Science, TU Berlin [email protected] Manfred Opper Computer Science, TU Berlin [email protected] Abstract We introduce a nonparametric approach for estimating drift functions in systems of stochastic differential equations from sparse observations of the state vector. Using a Gaussian process prior over the drift as a function of the state vector, we develop an approximate EM algorithm to deal with the unobserved, latent dynamics between observations. The posterior over states is approximated by a piecewise linearized process of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type and the MAP estimation of the drift is facilitated by a sparse Gaussian process regression. 1 Introduction Gaussian process (GP) inference methods have been successfully applied to models for dynamical systems, see e.g. [1?3]. Usually, these studies have dealt with discrete time dynamics, where one uses a GP prior for modeling transition function and the measurement function of the system. On the other hand, many dynamical systems in the physical world evolve in continuous time and the noisy dynamics is described naturally in terms of stochastic differential equations (SDE). SDEs have also attracted considerable interest in the NIPS community in recent years [4?7]. So far most inference approaches have dealt with the posterior prediction of state variables between observations (smoothing) and the estimation of parameters contained in the drift function, which governs the deterministic part of the microscopic time evolution. Since the drift is usually a nonlinear function of the state vector, a nonparametric estimation using Gaussian process priors would be a natural choice, when a large number of data is available. A recent result by [8, 9] presented an important step in this direction. The authors have shown that GPs are a conjugate family to SDE likelihoods. In fact, if an entire path of dense observations of the state dynamics is observed, the posterior process over the drift is exactly a GP. Unfortunately, this simplicity is lost, when observations are not dense, but separated by larger time intervals. In [8] this sparse, incomplete observation case has been treated by a Gibbs sampler, which alternates between sampling complete state paths of the SDE and creating GP samples for the drift. A nontrivial problem is the sampling from SDE paths conditioned on observations. Second, the densely sampled hidden paths are equivalent to a large number of imputed observations, for which the matrix inversions required by the GP posterior predictions can become computationally costly. It was shown in [8] that in the univariate case for GP priors with precision operators (the inverses of covariance kernels) which are differential operators efficient predictions can be realized in terms of the solutions of differential equations. In this paper, we develop an alternative approximate expectation maximization (EM) method for inference from sparse observations, which is faster than the sampling approach and can also be applied to arbitrary kernels and multivariate SDEs. In the E-Step we approximate expectations over 1 state paths by those of a locally fitted Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The M-step for computing the maximum posterior GP prediction of the drift depends on a continuum of function values and is thus approximated by a sparse GP. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces stochastic differential equations and section 3 discusses GP based inference for completely observed paths. In section 4 our approximate EM algorithm is derived and its performance is demonstrated on a variety of SDEs in section 6. Section 7 presents a discussion. 2 Stochastic differential equations We consider continuous-time univariate Markov processes of the diffusion type, where the dynamics of a d-dimensional state vector Xt ? Rd is given by the stochastic differential equation (SDE) dXt = f (Xt )dt + D1/2 dW. 1 (1) d The vector function f (x) = (f (x), . . . , f (x)) defines the deterministic drift and W is a Wiener process, which models additive white noise. D is the diffusion matrix, which we assume to be independent of x. We will not attempt a rigorous treatment of probability measures over continuous time paths here, but will mostly assume for our derivations that the process can be approximated with a discrete time process Xt in the Euler-Maruyama discretization [10], where the times t ? G are on a regular grid G = {0, ?t, 2?t, . . . } and where ?t is some small microscopic time. The discretized process is given by ? Xt+?t ? Xt = f (Xt )?t + D1/2 ?t ?t , (2) where ?t ? N (0, I) is a sequence of i.i.d. Gaussian noise vectors. We will usually take the limit ?t ? 0 only in expressions where (Riemann) sums are over nonrandom quantities, i.e. where expectations over paths have been carried out and can be replaced by ordinary integrals. 3 Bayesian Inference for dense observations Suppose we observe a path of n d-dimensional observations X0:T = (Xt )t?G over the time interval [0, T ]. Since for ?t ? 0, the transition probabilities of the process are Gaussian, # " 1 X 2 (3) pf (X0:T |f ) ? exp ? ||Xt+?t ? Xt ? f (Xt )?t|| , 2?t t . the probability density for the path with a given drift function f = (f (Xt ))t?G at these observations can be written as the product where pf (X0:T |f ) = p0 (X0:T )L(X0:T |f ), " 1 X 2 ||Xt+?t ? Xt || p0 (X0:T ) ? exp ? 2?t t (4) # (5) is the measure over paths without drift, i.e. a discretized version of the Wiener measure, and a term which we will call likelihood in the following, " # X 1X 2 L(X0:T |f ) = exp ? ||f (Xt )|| ?t + hf (Xt ), Xt+?t ? Xt i . (6) 2 t t . Here we have introduced the inner product hu, vi = u? D?1 v and the corresponding squared norm 2 . ? ?1 ||u|| = u D u to avoid cluttered notation. To attempt a nonparametric Bayesian estimate of the drift function f (x), we note that the exponent in (6) contains the drift f at most quadratically. Hence it becomes clear that a conjugate prior to the drift for this model is given by a Gaussian process, i.e. we assume that for each component f ? P0 (f ) = GP(0, K), where K is a kernel [11], a fact which was recently observed in [8]. We denote probabilities over the drift f by upper case symbols in order to avoid confusion with path probabilities. Although a more general model is possible, we will restrict ourselves to the case where the 2 Figure 1: The left figure shows a snippet of the double well sample path in black and observations as red dots. The right picture displays the estimated drift function for the double well model after initialization, where the red line denotes the true drift function and the black line the mean function with corresponding 95%-confidence bounds (twice the standard deviation) in blue. One can clearly see that the larger distance between the consecutive points leads to a wrong prediction. GP priors over the components f j (x), j = 1, . . . , d of the drift are independent (with usually different kernels) and we assume that we have a diagonal diffusion matrix D = diag(?12 , . . . , ?d2 ). In this case, the GP posteriors of f j (x) are independent, too, and we can estimate drift components indej pendently by ordinary GP regression. We define data vectors by dj = ((Xt+?t ?Xtj )/?t)? t?G\{T } , j j j j ? the kernel matrix K = (K (Xs , Xt ))s,t?G , and the test vector k (x) = (K (x, Xt ))t?G . Then a standard calculation [11] shows that the posterior process over drift functions f has a posterior mean and a GP posterior variance at an arbitrary point x is given by !?1 !?1 2 2 ? ? j j I dj , I kj (x). (7) ?f2 j (x) = K j (x, x)?kj (x)? Kj + f?j (x) = kj (x)? Kj + ?t ?t Note that ?j2 /?t plays the role of the variance of the observation noise in the standard regression case. In practice, the number of observations can be quite large for a fine time discretization, and a fast computation of (7) could become infeasible. A possible way out of this problem?as suggested by [8]?could be a restriction to kernels for which the inverse kernel, the precision operator, is a differential operator. A well known machine learning approach, which is based on a sparse Gaussian process approximation, applies to arbitrary kernels and generalizes easily to multivariate SDE. We have resorted specifically to the optimal Kullback-Leibler sparsity [1,12], where the likelihood term of a GP model is replaced by another effective likelihood, which depends only on a smaller set of variables fs . 4 MAP Inference for sparse observations The simple GP regression approach outlined in the previous section cannot be applied when obser. vations are sparse in time. In this setting, we assume that n observations yk = X?k , k = 1, . . . , n are obtained at (for simplicity) regular intervals ?k = k? , where ? ? ?t is much larger than the microscopic time scale. In this case, a discretization in (6), where the sum over the microscopic grid t ? G would be replaced by a sum over macroscopic times ?k and ?t by ? , would correspond to a discrete time dynamical model of the form (1) again replacing ?t by ? . But this discretization would give a bad approximation to the true SDE dynamics. The estimator of the drift would give some (approximate) estimation of the mean of the transition kernel over macroscopic times ? . However, this does usually not give a good approximation for the original drift. This can be seen in figure 1, where the red line corresponds to the true drift (of the so called double-well model [4]) and the black line to its prediction based on observations with ? = 0.2 and the naive estimation method. To deal with this problem, we treat the process Xt for times t between consecutive observations k? < t < (k + 1)? as a latent unobserved random variable with a posterior path measure given by p(X0:T |y, f ) ? p(X0:T |f ) 3 n Y k=1 ?(yk ? Xk? ), (8) where y is the collection of observations yk and ?(?) denotes the Dirac-distribution encoding the fact that the process is known perfectly at times ?k . Our goal is to use an EM algorithm to compute the maximum posterior (MAP) prediction for the drift function f (x). Unfortunately, exact posterior expectations are intractable and one needs to work with suitable approximations. 4.1 Approximate EM algorithm The EM algorithm cycles between two steps 1. In the E-step, we compute the expected negative logarithm of the complete data likelihood L(f , q) = ?Eq [ln L(X0:T |f )] , (9) fnew = arg min (L(f , q) ? ln P0 (f )) . (10) where q denotes a measure over paths which approximates the intractable posterior p(X0:T |y, fold ) for the previous estimate fold of the drift. 2. In the M-Step, we recompute the drift function as f To compute the expectation in the E-step, we use (6) and take the limit ?t ? 0 at the end, when expectations have been computed. As f (x) is a time-independent function, this yields  1X  ?Eq [ln L(X0:T |f )] = lim Eq ||f (Xt )||2 ?t ? 2 hf (Xt ), Xt+?t ? Xt i ?t?0 2 t Z   1 T Eq ||f (Xt )||2 ? 2 hf (Xt ), gt (Xt )i dt = 2 0 Z Z 1 2 = ||f (x)|| A(x)dx ? hf (x), y(x)i dx. (11) 2 Here qt (x) is the marginal density of Xt computed from the approximate posterior path measure q. We have also defined the corresponding approximate posterior drift 1 Eq [Xt+?t ? Xt |Xt = x], (12) gt (x) = lim ?t?0 ?t as well as the functions Z T Z T gt (x)qt (x)dt. (13) qt (x)dt and y(x) = A(x) = 0 0 There are two main problems for a practical realization of this EM algorithm: 1. We need to find tractable path measures q, which lead to good approximations for marginal densities and posterior drifts given arbitrary prior drift functions f (x). 2. The M-Step requires a functional optimization, because (11) shows that L(f , q) ? ln P0 (f ) is actually a functional of f (x), i.e. it contains a continuum of values f (x), where x ? Rd . 4.2 Linear drift approximation: The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge For given drift f (?) and times t ? Ik in the interval Ik = [k ? ; (k + 1)? ] between two consecutive observations, the exact posterior marginal pt (x) equals the density of Xt = x conditioned on the fact that Xk? = yk and X(k+1)? = yk+1 . This can be expressed by the transition densities of the homogeneous Markov diffusion process with drift f (x). We denote this quantity by ps (Xt+s |Xt ) being the density of the random variable Xt+s at time t + s conditioned on Xt at time t. Using the Markov property, this yields the representation pt (x) ? p(k+1)? ?t (yk+1 |x)pt?k? (x|yk ) for t ? Ik . (14) As functions of t and x, the second factor fulfills a forward Fokker-Planck equation and the first one a Kolmogorov backward equation [13]. Both are partial differential equations. Since exact computations are not feasible for general drift functions, we approximate the transition density ps (x|xk ) in each interval Ik by that of a process, where the drift f (x) is replaced by its local linearization f (x) ? fou (x, t) = f (xk ) ? ?k (x ? xk ) 4 with ?k = ??f (xk ). (15) This is equivalent to assuming that for t ? Ik the dynamics is approximated by the homogeneous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process [13] dXt = [f (yk ) ? ?k (Xt ? yk )]dt + D1/2 dW, (16) which is also used to build computationally efficient hierarchical models [14, 15], as in this case the marginal posterior can be calculated analytically. Here the transition density is a multivariate Gaussian  qs(k) (x|y) = N x|?k + e??k s (y ? ?k ); Ss (17) ?1 where ?k = yk + ??1 is calculated k f (yk ) is the stationary mean and the variance Ss = As Bs using the matrix exponential       0 As ?k D s = exp . (18) 0 ??? Bs I k (k) Then we obtain the Gaussian approximation qt (x) = N (x|m(t); C(t)) of the marginal posterior for t ? Ik by multiplying the two transition densities, where ?1  ? ?1 ??k (tk+1 ?t) and C(t) = e??k (tk+1 ?t) St?1 e + S t?tk k+1 ?t   ? ??k (tk+1 ?t) y ? ? + e ? m(t) = C(t) e??k (tk+1 ?t) St?1 k+1 k k ?t k+1   ?1 ??k (t?tk ) + C(t) St?tk ?k + e (yk ? ?k ) . By inspecting mean and variance we see that the distribution is a equivalent to a bridge between the points X = yk and X = yk+1 and collapses to point masses at these points. Within this approximation, we can estimate parameters such as the diffusion D using the approximate evidence n?1 Y q?(k) (yk+1 |yk ) (19) p(y|f ) ? pou (y) = p(x1 ) j=1 Finally, in this approximation we obtain for the posterior drift 1 gt (x) = lim E [Xt+?t ? Xt |Xt = x, X? = yk+1 ] ?t?0 ?t = ? f (yk ) ? ?k (x ? yk ) + De??k (tk+1 ?t) St?1 (yk+1 ? ?k ? e??k (tk+1 ?t) (x ? ?k )) k+1 ?t as shown in appendix A in the supplementary material. 4.3 Sparse M-Step approximation To cope with the functional optimization, we resort to a sparse approximation for replacing the infinite set f by a sparse set fs . Here the GP posteriors (for each component of the drift) is replaced by one that is closest in the KL sense. Following appendix B in the supplementary material, we find that in the sparse approximation the likelihood (11) is replaced by Z Z 1 Ls (f , q) = ||E0 [f (x)|fs ]||2 A(x) dx ? hE0 [f (x)|fs ], y(x)i dx, (20) 2 where the conditional expectation is over the GP prior. In order to avoid cluttered notation, it should 2 be noted that in the following results for a component f j , the quantities ?s , fs , ks , K?1 s , y(x), ? , similar to (7) depend on the component j, but not A(x). This is easily computed as ?1 E0 [f (x)|fs ] = k? s (x)Ks fs . (21) 1 ? f ?s f s ? fs? ds 2 s (22) Hence Ls (f , q) = with 1 ?s = 2 K?1 s ? Z ks (x) A(x) k? s (x)dx  K?1 s , 5 1 ds = 2 K?1 s ? Z ks (x) y(x) dx. (23) With these results, the approximate MAP estimate is ?1 f?s (x) = k? ds . s (x)(I + ?s Ks ) (24) The integrals over x in (23) can be computed analytically for many kernels of interest such as polynomial and RBF ones. However, we have done this for 1-dimensional models only. For higher dimensions, we found it more efficient to treat both the time integration in (13) and the x integrals by sampling, where time points t are drawn uniformly at random and x points from the multivariate Gaussian qt (x). s ?1 A related expression for the variance ?s2 (x) = K(x, x) ? k? ?s ks (x) can only be s (x)(I + ?K ) viewed as a crude estimate, because it does not include the impact of the GP fluctuations on the path probabilities. 5 A crude estimate of an approximation error Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that this approximation to the EM algorithm will always increase the exact likelihood p(y|f ). Here, we will develop a crude estimate how p(y|f ) differs . from the the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck approximation (19) to lowest order in the difference ?f (Xt , t) = f (Xt ) ? fou (Xt , t) between drift function and its approximation. Our estimate is based on the exact expression Z n Y p(y|f ) = dp0 (X0:T ) eln L(X0:T |f ) ?(yk ? Xk? ) (25) k=1 where the Wiener measure p0 is defined in (5) and the likelihood L(X0:T |f ) in (6). The OrnsteinUhlenbeck approximation (19) can expressed in a similar way: we just have to replace L(X0:T |f ) by a functional Lou (X0:T |f ) which in turn is obtained by replacing f (Xt ) with the linearized drift fou (Xt , t) in (6). The difference in free energies (negative log evidences) can be expressed exactly by an expectation over the posterior OU processes and then expanded (similar to a cumulant expansion) in a Taylor series in ?L = ? ln(L/Lou ). The first two terms are given by   1 . ?F = ? {ln p(y|f ) ? ln pou (y)} = ? ln Eq e??L ? Eq [?L] ? Varq [?L] ? . . . 2 (26) The computation of the first term is similar to (11) and requires only the marginal qt and the posterior gt . The second term contains the posterior variance and requires two-time covariances of the OU process. We concentrate on the first term which we further expand in the difference ?f (Xt , t). This yields Z T Eq [h?f (Xt , t), fou (Xt , t) ? gt (Xt )i] dt. (27) ?F ? Eq [?L] ? 0 This expression could be evaluated in order to estimate the influence of nonlinear parts of the drift on the approximation error. 6 Experiments In all experiments, we used different versions of the following general kernel, which is a linear combination of a RBF and a polynomial kernel,   p (x1 ? x2 )T (x1 ? x2 ) K(x1 , x2 ) = c ?RBF exp ? , (28) + (1 ? c) 1 + x? 1 x2 2 2lRBF where the hyperparameters ?RBF and lRBF denote the variance and length scale of the RBF kernel and p denotes the order of the polynomial kernel. Also, we determined the sparse points for the GP algorithm in each case by first constructing a histogram over the observations and then selecting the set of histogram midpoints of each histogram bin which contained at least a certain number bmin of observations. In our experiments, we chose bmin = 5. 6 Figure 2: The figures show the estimated drift functions for the double well model (left) and the periodic diffusion model (right) after completion of the EM algorithm. Again, the black and blue lines denote mean and 95%-confidence bounds, while the red lines indicate the true drift functions. 6.1 One-dimensional toy models First we test our algorithm on two toy data sets, the double well model with dynamics given by the SDE dx = 4(x ? x3 )dt + dW (29) and a diffusion model driven by a periodic drift dx = sin(x)dt + dW. (30) For both models, we simulated a path of size M = 105 on a regular grid with width ?t = 0.01 from the corresponding SDE and kept every 20th sample point as observation, resulting in N = 5000 data points. We initialized the EM Algorithm by running the sparse GP for the observation points without any imputation and subsequently computed the expectation operators by analytically evaluating the expressions on the same time grid as the simulated path and summing over the time steps. An alternative initialization strategy which consists of generating a full trajectory of the same size as the original path using Brownian bridge sampling between observations did not bring any noticeable performance improvements. Since we cannot guarantee that the likelihood increases in every iteration due to the approximation in the E-step, we resort to a simple heuristic by assuming convergence once L stabilizes up to some minor fluctuation. In our experiments convergence was typically attained after a few (< 10) iterations. For the double well model we used an equal weighting c = 0.5 between kernels with hyperparameters ?RBF = 1, lRBF = 0.5 and p = 5, whereas for the periodic model we used an RBF kernel (c = 1) with the same values for ?RBF and lRBF . 6.2 Application to a real data set As an example of a real world data set, we used the NGRIP ice core data (provided by NielsBohr institute in Copenhagen, http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/), which provides an undisturbed ice core record containing climatic information stretching back into the last glacial. Specifically, this data set as shown in figure 3 contains 4918 observations of oxygen isotope concentration ? 18 O over a time period from the present to roughly 1.23 ? 105 years into the past. Since there are generally less isotopes in ice formed under cold conditions, the isotope concentration can be regarded as an indicator of past temperatures. Recent research [16] suggest to model the rapid paleoclimatic changes exhibited in the data set by a simple dynamical system with polynomial drift function of order p = 3 as canonical model which allows for bistability. This corresponds to a meta stable state at higher temperatures close to marginal stability and a stable state at low values, which is consistent with other research on this data set, linking a stable state of oxygen isotopes to a baseline temperature and a region at higher values corresponding to the occurrence of rapid temperature spikes. For this particular problem we first tried to determine the diffusion constant ? of the data. Therefore we estimated the likelihood of the data set for 40 fixed values of ? in an interval from 0.3 to 11.5 by running the EM algorithm with a polynomial kernel (c = 0) of order p = 3 for each value in turn. The resulting drift function with the highest likelihood is shown in figure 3. The result seems to confirm the existence of a metastable state of oxygen isotope concentration and a stable state at lower values. 7 Figure 3: The figure on the left displays the NGRIP data set, while the picture on the right shows the estimated drift in black with corresponding 95%-confidence bounds denoting twice the standard deviation in blue for the optimal diffusion value ? ? = 2.9. Figure 4: The left figure shows the empirical density for the two-dimensional model, together with the vector fields of the actual drift function given in blue and the estimated drift given in red. The right picture shows a snippet from the full sample in black together with the first 20 observations denoted by red dots. 6.3 Two-dimensional toy model As an example of a two dimensional system, we simulated from a process with the following SDE: dx dy = = (x(1 ? x2 ? y 2 ) ? y)dt + dW1 , 2 2 (y(1 ? x ? y ) + y)dt + dW2 . (31) (32) For this model we simulated a path of size M = 106 on a regular grid with width ?t = 0.002 from the corresponding SDE and kept every 100th sample point as observation, resulting in N = 104 data points. In the inference shown in figure 4 we used a polynomial kernel (c = 0) of order p = 4. 7 Discussion It would be interesting to replace the ad hoc local linear approximation of the posterior drift by a more flexible time dependent Gaussian model. This could be optimized in a variational EM approximation by minimizing a free energy in the E-step, which contains the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the linear and true processes. Such a method could be extended to noisy observations and the case, where some components of the state vector are not observed. Finally, this method could be turned into a variational Bayesian approximation, where one optimizes posteriors over both drifts and over state paths. The path probabilities are then influenced by the uncertainties in the drift estimation, which would lead to more realistic predictions of error bars. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7, 2007-2013) under the grant agreement 270327 (CompLACS). 8 References [1] Michalis K. Titsias. Variational learning of inducing variables in sparse Gaussian processes. JMLR WC&P, 5:567?574, 2009. [2] Marc Deisenroth and Shakir Mohamed. Expectation propagation in Gaussian process dynamical systems. In P. Bartlett, F.C.N. Pereira, C.J.C. Burges, L. Bottou, and K.Q. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2618?2626. 2012. [3] Jonathan Ko and Dieter Fox. GP-BayesFilters: Bayesian filtering using Gaussian process prediction and observation models. Autonomous Robots, 27(1):75?90, July 2009. [4] C?edric Archambeau, Manfred Opper, Yuan Shen, Dan Cornford, and John Shawe-Taylor. Variational inference for diffusion processes. In J.C. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, and S. Roweis, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 17?24. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2008. [5] Jos?e Bento Ayres Pereira, Morteza Ibrahimi, and Andrea Montanari. Learning networks of stochastic differential equations. In J. Lafferty, C. K. I. Williams, J. Shawe-Taylor, R.S. Zemel, and A. Culotta, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pages 172?180. 2010. [6] Danilo J. Rezende, Daan Wierstra, and Wulfram Gerstner. Variational learning for recurrent spiking networks. In J. Shawe-Taylor, R.S. Zemel, P. Bartlett, F.C.N. Pereira, and K.Q. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, pages 136?144. 2011. [7] Simon Lyons, Amos Storkey, and Simo Sarkka. The coloured noise expansion and parameter estimation of diffusion processes. In P. Bartlett, F.C.N. Pereira, C.J.C. Burges, L. Bottou, and K.Q. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 1961?1969. 2012. [8] Omiros Papaspiliopoulos, Yvo Pokern, Gareth O. Roberts, and Andrew M. Stuart. Nonparametric estimation of diffusions: a differential equations approach. Biometrika, 99(3):511?531, 2012. [9] Yvo Pokern, Andrew M. Stuart, and J.H. van Zanten. Posterior consistency via precision operators for Bayesian nonparametric drift estimation in SDEs. Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 123(2):603?628, 2013. [10] P. E. Kloeden and E. Platen. Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations. Springer, New York, corrected edition, June 2011. [11] C. E. Rasmussen and C. K. I. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [12] Lehel Csat?o, Manfred Opper, and Ole Winther. TAP Gibbs free energy, belief propagation and sparsity. In T. G. Dietterich, S. Becker, and Z. Ghahramani, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14, pages 657?663. MIT Press, 2002. [13] C. W. Gardiner. Handbook of Stochastic Methods. Springer, Berlin, second edition, 1996. [14] Manfred Opper, Andreas Ruttor, and Guido Sanguinetti. Approximate inference in continuous time Gaussian-jump processes. In J. Lafferty, C. K. I. Williams, J. Shawe-Taylor, R.S. Zemel, and A. Culotta, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pages 1831?1839. 2010. [15] Florian Stimberg, Manfred Opper, and Andreas Ruttor. Bayesian inference for change points in dynamical systems with reusable states?a Chinese restaurant process approach. JMLR WC&P, 22:1117?1124, 2012. [16] Frank Kwasniok. Analysis and modelling of glacial climate transitions using simple dynamical systems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371(1991), 2013. 9
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Online Learning of Nonparametric Mixture Models via Sequential Variational Approximation Dahua Lin Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago [email protected] Abstract Reliance on computationally expensive algorithms for inference has been limiting the use of Bayesian nonparametric models in large scale applications. To tackle this problem, we propose a Bayesian learning algorithm for DP mixture models. Instead of following the conventional paradigm ? random initialization plus iterative update, we take an progressive approach. Starting with a given prior, our method recursively transforms it into an approximate posterior through sequential variational approximation. In this process, new components will be incorporated on the fly when needed. The algorithm can reliably estimate a DP mixture model in one pass, making it particularly suited for applications with massive data. Experiments on both synthetic data and real datasets demonstrate remarkable improvement on efficiency ? orders of magnitude speed-up compared to the state-of-the-art. 1 Introduction Bayesian nonparametric mixture models [7] provide an important framework to describe complex data. In this family of models, Dirichlet process mixture models (DPMM) [1, 15, 18] are among the most popular in practice. As opposed to traditional parametric models, DPMM allows the number of components to vary during inference, thus providing great flexibility for explorative analysis. Nonetheless, the use of DPMM in practical applications, especially those with massive data, has been limited due to high computational cost. MCMC sampling [12, 14] is the conventional approach to Bayesian nonparametric estimation. With heavy reliance on local updates to explore the solution space, they often show slow mixing, especially on large datasets. Whereas the use of splitmerge moves and data-driven proposals [9,17,20] has substantially improved the mixing performance, MCMC methods still require many passes over a dataset to reach the equilibrium distribution. Variational inference [4, 11, 19, 22], an alternative approach based on mean field approximation, has become increasingly popular recently due to better run-time performance. Typical variational methods for nonparametric mixture models rely on a truncated approximation of the stick breaking construction [16], which requires a fixed number of components to be maintained and iteratively updated during inference. The truncation level are usually set conservatively to ensure approximation accuracy, incurring considerable amount of unnecessary computation. The era of Big Data presents new challenges for machine learning research. Many real world applications involve massive amount of data that even cannot be accommodated entirely in the memory. Both MCMC sampling and variational inference maintain the entire configuration and perform iterative updates of multiple passes, which are often too expensive for large scale applications. This challenge motivated us to develop a new learning method for Bayesian nonparametric models that can handle massive data efficiently. In this paper, we propose an online Bayesian learning algorithm for generic DP mixture models. This algorithm does not require random initialization of components. Instead, it begins with the prior DP(??) and progressively transforms it into an approximate posterior of the mixtures, with new components introduced on the fly as needed. Based on a new way of variational approximation, the algorithm proceeds sequentially, taking in one sample at a time to make the 1 update. We also devise specific steps to prune redundant components and merge similar ones, thus further improving the performance. We tested the proposed method on synthetic data as well as two real applications: modeling image patches and clustering documents. Results show empirically that the proposed algorithm can reliably estimate a DP mixture model in a single pass over large datasets. 2 Related Work Recent years witness lots of efforts devoted to developing efficient learning algorithms for Bayesian nonparametric models. A n important line of research is to accelerate the mixing in MCMC through better proposals. Jain and Neal [17] proposed to use split-merge moves to avoid being trapped in local modes. Dahl [6] developed the sequentially allocated sampler, where splits are proposed by sequentially allocating observations to one of two split components through sequential importance sampling. This method was recently extended for HDP [20] and BP-HMM [9]. There has also been substantial advancement in variational inference. A significant development along is line is the Stochastic Variational Inference, a framework that incorporates stochastic optimization with variational inference [8]. Wang et al. [23] extended this framework to the non-parametric realm, and developed an online learning algorithm for HDP [18]. Wang and Blei [21] also proposed a truncation-free variational inference method for generic BNP models, where a sampling step is used for updating atom assignment that allows new atoms to be created on the fly. Bryant and Sudderth [5] recently developed an online variational inference algorithm for HDP, using mini-batch to handle streaming data and split-merge moves to adapt truncation levels. They tried to tackle the problem of online BNP learning as we do, but via a different approach. First, we propose a generic method while they focuses on topic models. The designs are also different ? our method starts from scratch and progressively adds new components. Its overall complexity is O(nK), where n and K are number of samples and expected number of components. Bryant?s method begins with random initialization and relies on splits over mini-batch to create new topics, resulting in the complexity of O(nKT ), where T is the number of iterations for each mini-batch. The differences stem from the theoretical basis ? our method uses sequential approximation based on the predictive law, while theirs is an extension of the standard truncation-based model. Nott et al. [13] recently proposed a method, called VSUGS, for fast estimation of DP mixture models. Similar to our algorithm, the VSUGS method proposed takes a sequential updating approach, but relies on a different approximation. Particularly, what we approximate is a joint posterior over both data allocation and model parameters, while VSUGS is based on the approximating the posterior of data allocation. Also, VSUGS requires fixing a truncation level T in advance, which may lead to difficulties in practice (especially for large data). Our algorithm provides a way to tackle this, and no longer requires fixed truncation. 3 Nonparametric Mixture Models This section provide a brief review of Dirichlet Process Mixture Model ? one of the most widely used nonparametric mixture models. A Dirichlet Process (DP), typically denoted by DP(??) is characterized by a concentration parameter ? and a base distribution ?. It has been shown that sample paths of a DP are almost surely discrete [16], and can be expressed as D= ? X ?k ??k , with ?k = vk k=1 k?1 Y vl , vk ? Beta(1, ?k ), ?k = 1, 2, . . . . (1) l=1 This is often referred to as the stick breaking representation, and ?k is called an atom. Since an atom can be repeatedly generated from D with positive probability, the number of distinct atoms is usually less than the number of samples. The Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM) exploits this property, and uses a DP sample as the prior of component parameters. Below is a formal definition: D ? DP (??), ?i ? ?, xi ? F (?|?i ), ?i = 1, . . . , n. (2) Consider a partition {C1 , . . . , CK } of {1, . . . , n} such that ?i are identical for all i ? Ck , which we denote by ?k . Instead of maintaining ?i explicitly, we introduce an indicator zi for each i with 2 ?i = ?zi . Using this clustering notation, this formulation can be rewritten equivalently as follows: z1:n ? CRP(?), ?k ? ?, ?k = 1, 2, . . . K xi ? F (?|?zi ), ?i = 1, 2, . . . , n. (3) Here, CRP(?) denotes a Chinese Restaurant Prior, which is a distribution over exchangeable partitions. Its probability mass function is given by K ?(?)?K Y pCRP (z1:n |?) = ?(|Ck |). (4) ?(? + n) k=1 4 Variational Approximation of Posterior Generally, there are two approaches to learning a mixture model from observed data, namely Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayesian learning. Specifically, maximum likelihood estimation seeks an optimal point estimate of ?, while Bayesian learning aims to derive the posterior distribution over the mixtures. Bayesian learning takes into account the uncertainty about ?, often resulting in better generalization performance than MLE. In this paper, we focus on Bayesian learning. In particular, for DPMM, the predictive distribution of component parameters, conditioned on a set of observed samples x1:n , is given by (5) p(?0 |x1:n ) = ED|x1:n [p(?0 |D)] . Here, ED|x1:n takes the expectation w.r.t. p(D|x1:n ). In this section, we derive a tractable approximation of this predictive distribution based on a detailed analysis of the posterior. 4.1 Posterior Analysis Let D ? DP(??) and ?1 , . . . , ?n be iid samples from D, {C1 , . . . , CK } be a partition of {1, . . . , n} such that ?i for all i ? Ck are identical, and ?k = ?i ?i ? Ck . Then the posterior distribution of D remains a DP, as D|?1:n ? DP(? ?? ?), where ? ? = ? + n, and K ? ?= X |Ck | ? ?+ ?? . ?+n ?+n k (6) k=1 The atoms are generally unobservable, and therefore it is more interesting in practice to consider the posterior distribution of D given the observed samples. For this purpose, we derive the lemma below that provides a constructive characterization of the posterior distribution given both the observed samples x1:n and the partition z. Lemma 1. Consider the DPMM in Eq.(3). Drawing a sample from the posterior distribution p(D|z1:n , x1:n ) is equivalent to constructing a random probability measure as follows ?0 D 0 + K X ?k ??k , k=1 with D0 ? DP(??), (?0 , ?1 , . . . , ?k ) ? Dir(?, m1 , . . . , mK ), ?k ? ?|Ck . (7) Q Here, mk = |Ck |, ?|Ck is a posterior distribution given by i.e. ?|Ck (d?) ? ?(d?) i?Ck F (xi |?). This lemma immediately follows from the Theorem 2 in [10] as DP is a special case of the socalled Normalized Random Measures with Independent Increments (NRMI). It is worth emphasizing that p(D|x, z) is no longer a Dirichlet process, as the locations of the atoms ?1 , . . . , ?K are nondeterministic, instead they follow the posterior distributions ?|Ck . By marginalizing out the partition z1:n , we obtain the posterior distribution p(D|x1:n ): X p(D|x1:n ) = p(z1:n |x1:n )p(D|x1:n , z1:n ). (8) z1:n (z) (z) Let {C1 , . . . , CK } be the partition corresponding to z1:n , we have (z) K YZ Y p(z1:n |x1:n ) ? pCRF (z1:n |?) ?(d?k ) F (xi |?k ). k=1 3 (z) i?Ck (9) 4.2 Variational Approximation Computing the predictive distribution based on Eq.(8) requires enumerating all possible partitions, which grow exponentially as n increases. To tackle this difficulty, we resort to variational approximation, that is, to choose a tractable distribution to approximate p(D|x1:n , z1:n ). In particular, we consider a family of random probability measures that can be expressed as follows: n XY q(D|?, ?) = ?i (zi )q?(z) (D|z1:n ). (10) z1:n i=1 Here, (z) q? (D|z1:n ) d is a stochastic process conditioned on z1:n , defined as q?(z) (D|z1:n ) ? ?0 D0 + K X ?k ??k , k=1 (z) (z) with D0 ? DP(??), (?0 , ?1 , . . . , ?K ) ? Dir(?, m1 , . . . , mK ), ?k ? ?k . (11) d (z) Here, we use ? to indicate that drawing a sample from q? is equivalent to constructing one according (z) (z) to the right hand side. In addition, mk = |Ck | is the cardinality of the k-th cluster w.r.t. z1:n , and ?k is a distribution over component parameters that is independent from z. The variational construction in Eq.(10) and (11) is similar to Eq.(7) and Q (8), except for two significant differences: (1) p(z1:n |x1:n ) is replaced by a product distribution i ?i (zi ), and (2) ?|Ck , which depends on z1:n , is replaced by an independent distribution ?k . With this design, zi for different i and ?k for different k are independent w.r.t. q, thus resulting in a tractable predictive law below: Let q be a random probability measure given by Eq.(10) and (11), then K Pn X ? 0 0 i=1 ?i (k) ?(? ) + ?k (?0 ). (12) Eq(D|?,?) [p(? |D)] = ?+n ?+n k=1 The approximate posterior has two sets of parameters: ? , (?1 , . . . , ?n ) and ? , (?1 , . . . , ?n ). With this approximation, the task of Bayesian learning reduces to the problem of finding the optimal setting of these parameters such that q(D|?, ?) best approximates the true posterior distribution. 4.3 Sequential Approximation The first problem here is to determine the value of K. A straightforward approach is to fix K to a large number as in the truncated methods. This way, however, would incur substantial computational costs on unnecessary components. We take a different approach here. Rather than randomly initializing a fixed number of components, we begin with an empty model (i.e. K = 1) and progressively refine the model as samples come in, adding new components on the fly when needed. Specifically, when the first sample x1 is observed, we introduce the first component and denote the posterior for this component by ?1 . As there is only one component at this point, we have z1 = 1, (1) i.e. ?1 (z1 = 1) = 1, and the posterior distribution over the component parameter is ?1 (d?) ? ?(d?)F (x1 |?). Samples are brought in sequentially. In particular, we compute ?i , and update ? (i?1) to ? i upon the arrival of the i-th sample xi . (i) (i) Suppose we have ? = (?1 , . . . , ?i ) and ? (i) = (?1 , . . . , ?K ) after processing i samples. To explain xi+1 , we can use either of the K existing components or introduce a new component ?k+1 . Then the posterior distribution of zi+1 , ?1 , . . . , ?K+1 given x1 , . . . , xn , xn+1 is p(zi+1 , ?1:K+1 |x1:i+1 ) ? p(zi+1 , ?1:K+1 |x1:i )p(xi+1 |zi+1 , ?1:K+1 ). (13) Using the tractable distribution q(?|?1:i , ? (i) ) in Eq.(10) to approximate the posterior p(?|x1:i ), we get p(zi+1 , ?1:K+1 |x1:i+1 ) ? q(zi+1 |?1:i , ? (i) )p(xi+1 |zi+1 , ?1:K+1 ). (i+1) (14) Then, the optimal settings of qi+1 and ? that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between q(zi+1 , ?1:K+1 |q1:i+1 , ? (i+1) ) and the approximate posterior in Eq.(14) are given as follows: ( (i) R (i) wk ? F (xi+1 |?)?k (d?) (k ? K), R ?i+1 ? (15) ? ? F (xi+1 |?)?(d?) (k = K + 1), 4 Algorithm 1 Sequential Bayesian Learning of DPMM (for conjugate cases). Require: base measure params: ?, ?0 , observed samples: x1 , . . . , xn , and threshold  Let K = 1, ?1 (1) = 1, w1 = ?1 , ?1 = ?(x1 ), and ?10 = 1. for i = 2 : n do Ti ? T (xi ), and bi ? b(xi ) ( B(?k + Ti , ?k0 + ? ) ? B(?k , ?k0 ) ? bi (k = 1, . . . , K) marginal log-likelihood: hi (k) ? B(? + Ti , ?0 + ? ) ? B(?, ?0 ) ? bi (k = K + 1) P hi (k) hi (l) ?i (k) ? wk e / l wl e for k = 1, . . . , K + 1 with wK+1 = ? if ?i (K + 1) >  then wk ? wk + ?i (k), ?k ? ?k + ?i (k)Ti , and ?k0 ? ?k0 + ?i (k)? , for k = 1, . . . , K 0 wK+1 ? ?i (K + 1), ?K+1 ? ?i (K + 1)Ti , and ?K+1 ? ?i (K + 1)? K ?K +1 else P re-normalize ?i such that K k=1 ?i (k) = 1 wk ? wk + ?i (k), ?k ? ?k + ?i (k)Ti , and ?k0 ? ?k0 + ?i (k)? , for k = 1, . . . , K end if end for (i) with wk = Pi j=1 ?j (k), and (i+1) ?k (d?) ( Qi+1 ?(d?) j=1 F (xj |?)?j (k) ? ?(d?)F (xi+1 |?)?i+1 (k) (k ? K), (k = K + 1). (16) Discussion. There is a key distinction between this approximation scheme and conventional approaches: Instead of seeking the approximation of p(D|x1:n ), which is very difficult (D is infinite) and unnecessary (only a finite number of components are useful), we try to approximate the posterior of a finite subset of latent variables that are truly relevant for prediction, namely z and ?1:K+1 . This sequential approximation scheme introduces a new component for each sample, resulting in n components over the entire dataset. This, however, is unnecessary. We find empirically that for most samples, ?i (K + 1) is negligible, indicating that the sample is adequately explained by existing component, and there is no need of new components. In practice, we set a small value  and increase K only when ?i (K + 1) > . This simple strategy is very effective in controlling the model size. 5 Algorithm and Implementation This section discusses the implementation of the sequential Bayesian learning algorithm under two different circumstances: (1) ? and F are exponential family distributions that form a conjuate pair, and (2) ? is not a conjugate prior w.r.t. F . Conjugate Case. In general, when ? is conjugate to F , they can be written as follows:  ?(d?|?, ?0 ) = exp ?T ?(?) ? ?0 A(?) ? B(?, ?0 ) h(d?),  F (x|?) = exp ?(?)T T (x) ? ? A(?) ? b(x) . (17) (18) 0 Here, the prior measure ? has a pair of natural parameters: (?, ? ). Conditioned on a set of observations Pn x1 , . . . , xn , the posterior distribution remains in the same family as ? with parameters (? + i=1 T (xi ), ?0 + n? ). In addition, the marginal likelihood is given by Z F (x|?)?(d?|?, ?0 ) = exp (B(? + T (x), ?0 + ? ) ? B(?, ?0 ) ? b(x)) . (19) ? In such cases, both the base measure ? and the component-specific posterior measures ?k can be represented using the natural parameter pairs, which we denote by (?, ?0 ) and (?k , ?k0 ). With this notation, we derive a sequential learning algorithm for conjugate cases, as shown in Alg 1. Non-conjugate Case. In practical models, it is not uncommon that ? and F are not a conjugate pair. Unlike in the conjugate cases discussed above, there exist no formulas to update posterior 5 parameters or to compute marginal likelihood in general. Here, we propose to address this Qn issue using stochastic optimization. Consider a posterior distribution given by p(?|x1:n ) ? ?(?) i=1 F (xi |?). A stochastic optimization method finds the MAP estimate of ? through update steps as below: ? ? ? + ?i (?? log ?(?) + n?? log F (xi |?)) . (20) The basic idea here is to use the gradient computed at a particular sample xi to approximate the true procedure converges to a (local) maximum, as long as the step size ?i satisfy P? gradient. ThisP ? 2 ? = ? and i=1 i i=1 ?i < ?. Incorporating the stochastic optimization method into our algorithm, we obtain a variant of Alg 1. The general procedure is similar, except for the following changes: (1) It maintains point estimates of the component parameters instead of the posterior, which we denote by ??1 , . . . , ??K . (2) It computes the log-likelihood as hi (k) = log F (xi |??k ). (3) The estimates of the component parameters are updated using the formula below: (i) (i?1) ??k ? ??k + ?i (?? log ?(?) + n?i (k)?? log F (xi |?)) . Following the common practice of stochastic optimization, we set ?i = i ?? (21) /n with ? ? (0.5, 1]. Prune and Merge. As opposed to random initialization, components created during this sequential construction are often truly needed, as the decisions of creating new components are based on knowledge accumulated from previous samples. However, it is still possible that some components introduced at early iterations would become less useful and that multiple components may be similar. We thus introduce a mechanism to remove undesirable components and merge similar ones. (i) We identify opportunities to make such adjustments by looking at the weights. Let w ?k = Pi (i) P (i) (i) wk / l wl (with wk = ? (k)) be the relative weight of a component at the i-th iteraj=1 j tion. Once the relative weight of a component drops below a small threshold ?r , we remove it to save unnecessary computation on this component in the future. The similarity between two components ?k and ?k0 can be measured in terms of the distance bePi tween ?i (k) and ?i (k 0 ) over all processed samples, as d? (k, k 0 ) = i?1 j=1 |?j (k) ? ?j (k 0 )|. We increment ?i (k) to ?i (k) + ?i (k 0 ) when ?k and ?0k are merged (i.e. d? (k, k 0 ) < ?d ). We also merge the associated sufficient statistics (for conjugate case) or take an weighted average of the parameters (for non-conjugate case). Generally, there is no need to perform such checks at every iteration. Since computing this distance between a pair of components takes O(n), we propose to examine similarities at an O(i ? K)-interval so that the amortized complexity is maintained at O(nK). Discussion. As compared to existing methods, the proposed method has several important advantages. First, it builds up the model on the fly, thus avoiding the need of randomly initializing a set of components as required by truncation-based methods. The model learned in this way can be readily extended (e.g. adding more components or adapting existing components) when new data is available. More importantly, the algorithm can learn the model in one pass, without the need of iterative updates over the data set. This distinguishes it from MCMC methods and conventional variational learning algorithms, making it a great fit for large scale problems. 6 Experiments To test the proposed algorithm, we conducted experiments on both synthetic data and real world applications ? modeling image patches and document clustering. All algorithms are implemented using Julia [2], a new language for high performance technical computing. 6.1 Synthetic Data First, we study the behavior of the proposed algorithm on synthetic data. Specifically, we constructed a data set comprised of 10000 samples in 9 Gaussian clusters of unit variance. The distances between these clusters were chosen such that there exists moderate overlap between neighboring clusters. The estimation of these Gaussian components are based on the DPMM below:  D ? DP ? ? N (0, ?p2 I) , ? i ? D, xi ? N (? i , ?x2 I). (22) 6 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 ?2 ?2 ?4 ?4 ?8 ?8 ?5.5 ?6 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 2 4 6 8 ?8 ?8 ?6 ?4 ?2 CGS 2 4 6 8 TVF 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 ?2 ?2 ?4 ?4 ?6 ?8 ?8 0 joint log?lik ?6 4 x 10 ?6.5 ?7 ?7.5 ?8 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 SVA 2 4 6 8 ?8 ?8 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 2 4 6 8 SVA-PM ?8.5 0 Figure 1: Gaussian clusters on synthetic data obtained using different methods. Both MC-SM and SVA-PM identified the 9 clusters correctly. The result of MC-SM is omitted here, as it looks the same as SVA-PM. 20 40 60 minute 80 CGS MC?SM TVF SVA SVA?PM 100 Figure 2: Joint log-likelihood on synthetic data as functions of run-time. The likelihood values were evaluated on a held-out testing set. (Best to view with color) Here, we set ? = 1, ?p = 100 and ?x = 1. We tested the following inference algorithms: Collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS) [12], MCMC with Split-Merge (MC-SM) [6], Truncation-Free Variational Inference (TFV) [21], Sequential Variational Approximation (SVA), and its variant Sequential Variational Approximation with Prune and Merge (SVA-PM). For CGS, MC-SM, and TFV, we run the updating procedures iteratively for one hour, while for SVA and SVA-PM, we run only one-pass. Figure 1 shows the resulting components. CGS and TFV yield obviously redundant components. This corroborates observations in previous work [9]. Such nuisances are significantly reduced in SVA, which only occasionally brings in redundant components. The key difference that leads to this improvement is that CGS and TFV rely on random initialization to bootstrap the algorithm, which would inevitably introduce similar components, while SVA leverages information gained from previous samples to decide whether new components are needed. Both MC-SM and SVA-PM produce desired mixtures, demonstrating the importance of an explicit mechanism to remove redundancy. Figure 2 plots the traces of joint log-likelihoods evaluated on a held-out set of samples. We can see that SVA-PM quickly reaches the optimal solution in a matter of seconds. SVA also gets to a reasonable solution within seconds, and then the progress slows down. Without the prune-and-merge steps, it takes much longer for redundant components to fade out. MC-SM eventually reaches the optimal solution after many iterations. Methods relying on local updates, including CGS and TFV, did not even come close to the optimal solution within one hour. These results clearly demonstrate that our progressive strategy, which gradually constructs the model through a series of informed decisions, is much more efficient than random initialization followed by iterative updating. 6.2 Modeling Image Patches Image patches, which capture local characteristics of images, play a fundamental role in various computer vision tasks, such as image recovery and scene understanding. Many vision algorithms rely on a patch dictionary to work. It has been a common practice in computer vision to use parametric methods (e.g. K-means) to learn a dictionary of fixed size. This approach is inefficient when large datasets are used. It is also difficult to be extended when new data with a fixed K. To tackle this problem, we applied our method to learn a nonparametric dictionary from the SUN database [24], a large dataset comprised of over 130K images, which capture a broad variety of scenes. We divided all images into two disjoint sets: a training set with 120K images and a testing set with 10K. We extracted 2000 patches of size 32 ? 32 from each image, and characterize each patch by a 128-dimensional SIFT feature. In total, the training set contains 240M feature vectors. We respectively run TFV, SVA, and SVA-SM to learn a DPMM from the training set, based on the 7 550 ?100 avg. pred. log?lik avg. pred. log?lik 500 ?120 ?140 ?160 ?180 Figure 3: Examples of image patche clusters learned using SVA-PM. Each row corresponds to a cluster. We can see similar patches are in the same cluster. 0 2 4 6 TVF SVA SVA?PM 8 450 400 350 300 0 2 hour Figure 4: Average loglikelihood on image modeling as functions of run-time. 4 6 hour 8 TVF SVA SVA?PM 10 Figure 5: Average loglikelihood of document clusters as functions of run-time. formulation given in Eq.(22), and evaluate the average predictive log-likelihood over the testing set as the measure of performance. Figure 3 shows a small subset of patch clusters obtained using SVA-PM. Figure 4 compares the trajectories of the average log-likelihoods obtained using different algorithms. TFV takes multiple iterations to move from a random configuration to a sub-optimal one and get trapped in a local optima. SVA steadily improves the predictive performance as it sees more samples. We notice in our experiments that even without an explicit redundancy-removal mechanism, some unnecessary components can still get removed when their relative weights decreases and becomes negligible. SVM-PM accelerates this process by explicitly merging similar components. 6.3 Document Clustering Next, we apply the proposed method to explore categories of documents. Unlike standard topic modeling task, this is a higher level application that builds on top of the topic representation. Specifically, we first obtain a collection of m topics from a subset of documents, and characterize all documents by topic proportions. We assume that the topic proportion vector is generated from a category-specific Dirichlet distribution, as follows D ? DP (? ? Dirsym (?p )) , ? i ? D, xi ? Dir(?x ? i ). (23) Here, the base measure is a symmetric Dirichlet distribution. To generate a document, we draw a mean probability vector ? i from D, and generates the topic proportion vector xi from Dir(?x ? i ). The parameter ?x is a design parameter that controls how far xi may deviate from the categoryspecific center ? i . Note that this is not a conjugate model, and we use stochastic optimization instead of Bayesian updates in SVA (see section 5). We performed the experiments on the New York Times database, which contains about 1.8M articles from year 1987 to 2007. We pruned the vocabulary to 5000 words by removing stop words and those with low TF-IDF scores, and obtained 150 topics by running LDA [3] on a subset of 20K documents. Then, each document is represented by a 150-dimensional vector of topic proportions. We held out 10K documents for testing and use the remaining to train the DPMM. We compared SVA, SVA-PM, and TVF. The traces of log-likelihood values are shown in Figure 5. We observe similar trends as above: SVA and SVA-PM attains better solution more quickly, while TVF is less efficient and is prune to being trapped in local maxima. Also, TVF tends to generate more components than necessary, while SVA-PM maintains a better performance using much less components. 7 Conclusion We presented an online Bayesian learning algorithm to estimate DP mixture models. The proposed method does not require random initialization. Instead, it can reliably and efficiently learn a DPMM from scratch through sequential approximation in a single pass. The algorithm takes in data in a streaming fashion, and thus can be easily adapted to new data. Experiments on both synthetic data and real applications have demonstrated that our algorithm achieves remarkable speedup ? it can attain nearly optimal configuration within seconds or minutes, while mainstream methods may take hours or even longer. It is worth noting that the approximation is derived based on the predictive law of DPMM. It is an interesting future direction to investigate how it can be generalized to a broader family of BNP models, such as HDP, Pitman-Yor processes, and NRMIs [10]. 8 References [1] C. Antoniak. Mixtures of dirichlet processes with applications to bayesian nonparametric problems. The Annals of Statistics, 2(6):1152?1174, 1974. [2] Jeff Bezanson, Stefan Karpinski, Viral B. Shah, and Alan Edelman. Julia: A fast dynamic language for technical computing. CoRR, abs/1209.5145, 2012. [3] David Blei, Ng Andrew, and Michael Jordan. Latent dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [4] David M. Blei and Michael I. Jordan. Variational methods for the Dirichlet process. In Proc. of ICML?04, 2004. [5] Michael Bryant and Erik Sudderth. Truly nonparametric online variational inference for hierarchical dirichlet processes. In Proc. of NIPS?12, 2012. [6] David B. Dahl. Sequentially-allocated merge-split sampler for conjugate and nonconjugate dirichlet process mixture models, 2005. [7] Nils Lid Hjort, Chris Holmes, Peter Muller, and Stephen G. Walker. Bayesian Nonparametrics: Principles and Practice. Cambridge University Press, 2010. [8] Matt Hoffman, David M. Blei, Chong Wang, and John Paisley. Stochastic variational inference. arXiv eprints, 1206.7501, 2012. [9] Michael C. Hughes, Emily B. Fox, and Erik B. Sudderth. Effective split-merge monte carlo methods for nonparametric models of sequential data. 2012. [10] Lancelot F. James, Antonio Lijoi, and Igor Pr?unster. Posterior analysis for normalized random measures with independent increments. Scaninavian Journal of Stats, 36:76?97, 2009. [11] Kenichi Kurihara, Max Welling, and Yee Whye Teh. Collapsed variational dirichlet process mixture models. In Proc. of IJCAI?07, 2007. [12] Radford M. Neal. Markov Chain Sampling Methods for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models. Journal of computational and graphical statistics, 9(2):249?265, 2000. [13] David J. Nott, Xiaole Zhang, Christopher Yau, and Ajay Jasra. A sequential algorithm for fast fitting of dirichlet process mixture models. In Arxiv: 1301.2897, 2013. [14] Ian Porteous, Alex Ihler, Padhraic Smyth, and Max Welling. Gibbs Sampling for (Coupled) Infinite Mixture Models in the Stick-breaking Representation. In Proc. of UAI?06, 2006. [15] Carl Edward Rasmussen. The Infinite Gaussian Mixture Model. In Proc. of NIPS?00, 2000. [16] Jayaram Sethuraman. A constructive definition of dirichlet priors. Statistical Sinica, 4:639?650, 1994. [17] S.Jain and R.M. Neal. A split-merge markov chain monte carlo procedure for the dirichlet process mixture model. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 13(1):158?182, 2004. [18] Yee Whye Teh, Michael I. Jordan, Matthew J. Beal, and David M. Blei. Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(476):1566?1581, 2007. [19] Y.W. Teh, K. Kurihara, and Max Welling. Collapsed Variational Inference for HDP. In Proc. of NIPS?07, volume 20, 2007. [20] Chong Wang and David Blei. A split-merge mcmc algorithm for the hierarchical dirichlet process. arXiv eprints, 1201.1657, 2012. [21] Chong Wang and David Blei. Truncation-free stochastic variational inference for bayesian nonparametric models. In Proc. of NIPS?12, 2012. [22] Chong Wang and David M Blei. Variational Inference for the Nested Chinese Restaurant Process. In Proc. of NIPS?09, 2009. [23] Chong Wang, John Paisley, and David Blei. Online variational inference for the hierarchical dirichlet process. In AISTATS?11, 2011. [24] J. Xiao, J. Hays, K. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. Sun database: Large-scale scene recognition from abbey to zoo. In Proc. of CVPR?10, 2010. 9
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Memoized Online Variational Inference for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models Michael C. Hughes and Erik B. Sudderth Department of Computer Science, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 [email protected], [email protected] Abstract Variational inference algorithms provide the most effective framework for largescale training of Bayesian nonparametric models. Stochastic online approaches are promising, but are sensitive to the chosen learning rate and often converge to poor local optima. We present a new algorithm, memoized online variational inference, which scales to very large (yet finite) datasets while avoiding the complexities of stochastic gradient. Our algorithm maintains finite-dimensional sufficient statistics from batches of the full dataset, requiring some additional memory but still scaling to millions of examples. Exploiting nested families of variational bounds for infinite nonparametric models, we develop principled birth and merge moves allowing non-local optimization. Births adaptively add components to the model to escape local optima, while merges remove redundancy and improve speed. Using Dirichlet process mixture models for image clustering and denoising, we demonstrate major improvements in robustness and accuracy. 1 Introduction Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a flexible framework for unsupervised modeling of structured data like text documents, time series, and images. They are especially promising for large datasets, as their nonparametric priors should allow complexity to grow smoothly as more data is seen. Unfortunately, contemporary inference algorithms do not live up to this promise, scaling poorly and yielding solutions that represent poor local optima of the true posterior. In this paper, we propose new scalable algorithms capable of escaping local optima. Our focus is on clustering data via the Dirichlet process (DP) mixture model, but our methods are much more widely applicable. Stochastic online variational inference is a promising general-purpose approach to Bayesian nonparametric learning from streaming data [1]. While individual steps of stochastic optimization algorithms are by design scalable, they are extremely vulnerable to local optima for non-convex unsupervised learning problems, frequently yielding poor solutions (see Fig. 2). While taking the best of multiple runs is possible, this is unreliable, expensive, and ineffective in more complex structured models. Furthermore, the noisy gradient step size (or learning rate) requires external parameters which must be fine-tuned for best performance, often requiring an expensive validation procedure. Recent work has proposed methods for automatically adapting learning rates [2], but these algorithms? progress on the overall variational objective remains local and non-monotonic. In this paper, we present an alternative algorithm, memoized online variational inference, which avoids noisy gradient steps and learning rates altogether. Our method is useful when all data may not fit in memory, but we can afford multiple full passes through the data by processing successive batches. The algorithm visits each batch in turn and updates a cached set of sufficient statistics which accurately reflect the entire dataset. This allows rapid and noise-free updates to global parameters at every step, quickly propagating information and speeding convergence. Our memoized approach is generally applicable in any case batch or stochastic online methods are useful, including topic models [1] and relational models [3], though we do not explore these here. 1 We further develop a principled framework for escaping local optima in the online setting, by integrating birth and merge moves within our algorithm?s coordinate ascent steps. Most existing meanfield algorithms impose a restrictive fixed truncation in the number of components, which is hard to set a priori on big datasets: either it is too small and inexpressive, or too large and computationally inefficient. Our birth and merge moves, together with a nested variational approximation to the posterior, enable adaptive creation and pruning of clusters on-the-fly. Because these moves are validated by an exactly tracked global variational objective, we avoid potential instabilities of stochastic online split-merge proposals [4]. The structure of our moves is very different from split-merge MCMC methods [5, 6]; applications of these algorithms have been limited to hundreds of data points, while our experiments show scaling of memoized split-merge proposals to millions of examples. We review the Dirichlet process mixture model and variational inference in Sec. 2, outline our novel memoized algorithm in Sec. 3, and evaluate on clustering and denoising applications in Sec. 4. 2 Variational inference for Dirichlet process mixture models The Dirichlet process (DP) provides a nonparametric prior for partitioning exchangeable datasets into discrete clusters [7]. An instantiation G of a DP is an infinite collection of atoms, each of which represents one mixture component. Component k has mixture weight wk sampled as follows: G ? DP(?0 H), G, ? X wk ??k , vk ? Beta(1, ?0 ), wk = vk k=1 k?1 Y (1 ? v? ). (1) ?=1 This stick-breaking process provides mixture weights and parameters. Each data item n chooses an assignment zn ? Cat(w), and then draws observations xn ? F (?zn ). The data-generating parameter ?k is drawn from a base measure H with natural parameters ?0 . We assume both H and F belong to exponential families with log-normalizers a and sufficient statistics t: n o n o p(?k | ?0 ) = exp ?T0 t0 (?k ) ? a0 (?0 ) , p(xn | ?k ) = exp ?Tk t(xn ) ? a(?k ) . (2) For simplicity, we assume unit reference measures. The goal of inference is to recover stick-breaking proportions vk and data-generating parameters ?k for each global mixture component k, as well as discrete cluster assignments z = {zn }N n=1 for each observation. The joint distribution is p(x, z, ?, v) = N Y F (xn | ?zn )Cat(zn | w(v)) n=1 ? Y Beta(vk | 1, ?0 )H(?k | ?0 ) (3) k=1 While our algorithms are directly applicable to any DP mixture of exponential families, our experiments focus on D-dimensional real-valued data xn , for which we take F to be Gaussian. For some data, we consider full-mean, full-covariance analysis (where H is normal-Wishart), while other applications consider zero-mean, full-covariance analysis (where H is Wishart). 2.1 Mean-field variational inference for DP mixture models To approximate the full (but intractable) posterior over variables z, v, ?, we consider a fullyfactorized variational distribution q, with individual factors from appropriate exponential families:1 q(z, v, ?) = N Y n=1 q(zn ) = Cat(zn | r?n1 , . . . r?nK ), q(zn |? rn ) K Y ? k ), q(vk |? ?1 , ? ? 0 )q(?k |? (4) k=1 q(vk ) = Beta(vk | ? ? k1 , ? ? k0 ), ? k ). q(?k ) = H(?k | ? (5) To tractably handle the infinite set of components available under the DP prior, we truncate the discrete assignment factor to enforce q(zn = k) = 0 for k > K. This forces all data to be explained by only the first K components, inducing conditional independence between observed data and any global parameters vk , ?k with index k > K. Inference may thus focus exclusively on a finite set of K components, while reasonably approximating the true infinite posterior for large K. To ease notation, we mark variables with hats to distinguish parameters ?? of variational factors q from parameters ? of the generative model p. In this way, ?k and ??k always have equal dimension. 1 2 Crucially, our truncation is nested: any learned q with truncation K can be represented exactly under truncation K +1 by setting the final component to have zero mass. This truncation, previously advocated by [8, 4], has considerable advantages over non-nested direct truncation of the stick-breaking process [7], which places artifically large mass on the final component. It is more efficient and broadly applicable than an alternative trunction which sets the stick-breaking ?tail? to its prior [9]. Variational algorithms optimize the parameters of q to minimize the KL divergence from the true, intractable posterior [7]. The optimal q maximizes the evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective L: h i (6) log p(x | ?0 , ?0 ) ? L(q) , Eq log p(x, v, z, ? | ?0 , ?0 ) ? log q(v, z, ?) For DP mixtures of exponential family distributions, L(q) has a simple form. For each component k, ?k and expected sufficient statistic sk (x). All but one term in L(q) can we store its expected mass N then be written using only these summaries and expectations of the global parameters v, ?: ?k , Eq N N hX n=1 L(q) = K X N i X r?nk , znk = sk (x) , Eq n=1 N hX n=1 N i X znk t(xn ) = r?nk t(xn ), (7) n=1 ?k Eq [a(?k )] + N ?k Eq [log wk (v)] ? Eq [?k ]T sk (x) ? N N X r?nk log r?nk n=1 k=1 !   Beta(vk | 1, ?0 ) H(?k | ?0 ) + Eq log (8) + Eq log ?k ) q(vk | ? ? k1 , ? ? k0 ) q(?k | ? P Excluding the entropy term ? r?nk log r?nk which we discuss later, this bound is a simple linear ?k , sk (x). Given precomputed entropies and summaries, evaluation of function of the summaries N L(q) can be done in time independent of the data size N . We next review variational algorithms for optimizing q via coordinate ascent, iteratively updating individual factors of q. We describe algorithms in terms of two updates [1]: global parameters (stick-breaking proportions vk and datagenerating parameters ?k ), and local parameters (assignments of data to components zn ).  2.2 Full-dataset variational inference Standard full-dataset variational inference [7] updates local factors q(zn | r?n ) for all observations n = 1, . . . , N by visiting each item n and computing the fraction r?nk explained by component k:   r?nk r?nk = exp Eq [log wk (v)] + Eq [log p(xn | ?k )] , r?nk = PK . (9) ?n? ?=1 r ? k ) for each component k. After computing Next, we update global factors q(vk |? ?k1 , ? ? k0 ), q(?k |? ? summary statistics Nk , sk (x) given the new r?nk via Eq. (7), the update equations become ?k , ? ? k1 = ?1 + N ? ? k0 = ?0 + K X ?? , N ? k = ?0 + sk (x). ? (10) ?=k+1 While simple and guaranteed to converge, this approach scales poorly to big datasets. Because global parameters are updated only after a full pass through the data, information propagates slowly. 2.3 Stochastic online variational inference Stochastic online (SO) variational inference scales to huge datasets [1]. Instead of analyzing all data at once, SO processes only a subset (?batch?) Bt at each iteration t. These subsets are assumed sampled uniformly at random from a larger (but fixed size N ) corpus. Given a batch, SO first updates local factors q(zn ) for n ? Bt via Eq. (9). It then updates global factors via a noisy gradient step, using sufficient statistics of q(zn ) from only the current batch. These steps optimize a noisy function, which in expectation (with respect to batch sampling) converges to the true objective (6). Natural gradient steps are computationally tractable for exponential family models, involving nearly the same computations as the full-dataset updates [1]. For example, to update the variational param? k from (5) at iteration t, we first compute the global update given only data in the current batch, eter ? 3 ? ? = ?0 + amplified to be at full-dataset scale: ? k N |Bt | sk (Bt ). Then, we interpolate between this and ? ? + (1 ? ?t)? ? (t?1) . The learn? (t) ? ?t ? final result: ? k k k the previous global parameters to arrive at the ing rate ?t controls how ?forgetful? the algorithm is of previous values; if it decays at appropriate rates, stochastic inference provably converges to a local optimum of the global objective L(q) [1]. This online approach has clear computational advantages and can sometimes yield higher quality solutions than the full-data algorithm, since it conveys information between local and global parameters more frequently. However, performance is extremely sensitive to the learning rate decay schedule and choice of batch size, as we demonstrate in later experiments. 3 Memoized online variational inference Generalizing previous incremental variants of the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm [10], we now develop our memoized online variational inference algorithm. We divide the data into B fixed b ? batches {Bb }B b=1 . For each batch, we maintain memoized sufficient statistics Sk = [Nk (Bb ), sk (Bb )] 0 ? for each component k. We also track the full-dataset statistics Sk = [Nk , sk (x)]. These compact summary statistics allow guarantees of correct full-dataset analysis while processing only one small batch at a time. Our approach hinges on the fact that these sufficient statistics are additive: summaries of an entire dataset can be written exactly as the addition of summaries of distinct batches. Note that our memoization of deterministic analyses of batches of data is distinct from the stochastic memoization, or ?lazy? instantiation, of random variables in some Monte Carlo methods [11, 12]. Memoized inference proceeds by visiting (in random order) each distinct batch once in a full pass through the data, incrementally updating the local and global parameters related to that batch b. First, we update local parameters for the current batch (q(zn | r?n ) for n ? Bb ) via Eq. (9). Next, we update cached global sufficient statistics for each component: we subtract the old (cached) summary of batch b, compute a new batch-level summary, and add the result to the full-dataset summary: h X i X Sk0 ? Sk0 ? Skb , Skb ? r?nk , r?nk t(xn ) , Sk0 ? Sk0 + Skb . (11) n?Bb n?Bb Finally, given the new full-dataset summary Sk0 , we update global parameters exactly as in Eq. (10). Unlike stochastic online algorithms, memoized inference is guaranteed to improve the full-dataset ELBO at every step. Correctness follows immediately from the arguments in [10]. By construction, each local or global step will result in a new q that strictly increases the objective L(q). In the limit where B = 1, memoized inference reduces to standard full-dataset updates. However, given many batches it is far more scalable, while maintaining all guarantees of batch inference. Furthermore, it generally converges faster than the full-dataset algorithm due to frequently interleaving global and local updates. Provided we can store memoized sufficient statistics for each batch (not each observation), memoized inference has the same computational complexity as stochastic methods while avoiding noise and sensitivity to learning rates. Recent analysis of convex optimization algorithms [13] demonstrated theoretical and practical advantages for methods that use cached fulldataset summaries to update parameters, as we do, instead of stochastic current-batch-only updates. This memoized algorithm can compute the full-dataset objective L(q) exactly at any point (after visiting all Pitems once). To do so efficiently, we need to compute and store the assignment entropy Hkb = ? n?Bb rnk log rnk after visiting each batch b. We also need to track the full-data entropy PB Hk0 = b=1 Hkb , which is additive just like the sufficient statistics and incrementally updated after each batch. Given both Hk0 and Sk0 , evaluation of the full-dataset ELBO in Eq. (8) is exact and rapid. 3.1 Birth moves to escape local optima We now propose additional birth moves that, when interleaved with conventional coordinate ascent parameter updates, can add useful new components to the model and escape local optima. Previous methods [14, 9, 4] for changing variational truncations create just one extra component via a ?split? move that is highly-specialized to particular likelihoods. Wang and Blei [15] explore truncation levels via a local collapsed Gibbs sampler, but samplers are slow to make large changes. In contrast, our births add many components at once and apply to any exponential family mixture model. 4 Birth Move After Before 1 1 6 2 3 4 5 2 Batch 1 ! 7 ?kb 1) Create new Memoized summary N components expected count of each component 2) Adopt in one pass thru data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Batch b current position Batch b+1 Learn fresh DP-GMM on subsample via VB Subsample data explained by 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ! Add fresh components to expand original model Batch B 3) Merge to remove redundancy batches not-yet updated on this pass do not use any new components Figure 1: One pass through a toy dataset for memoized learning with birth and merge moves (MO-BM), showing creation (left) and adoption (right) of new components. Left: Scatter plot of 2D observed data, and a subsample targeted via the first mixture component. Elliptical contours show component covariance matrices. ?kb for each batch. Not shown: Memoized sufficient statistics sbk . Right: Bar plots of memoized counts N Creating new components in the online setting is challenging. Each small batch may not have enough examples of a missing component to inspire a good proposal, even if that component is wellsupported by the full dataset. We thus advocate birth moves that happen in three phases (collection, creation, and adoption) over two passes of the data. The first pass collects a targeted data sample more likely to yield informative proposals than a small, predefined batch. The second pass, shown in Fig. 1, creates new components and then updates every batch with the expanded model. Successive births are interleaved; at each pass there are proposals both active and in preparation. We sketch out each step of the algorithm below. For complete details, see the supplement. Collection During pass 1, we collect a targeted subsample x? of the data, of size at most N ? = 104 . This subsample targets a single component k ? . When visiting each batch, we copy data xn into x? if r?nk? > ? (we set ? = 0.1). This threshold test ensures the subsample contains related data, but also promotes diversity by considering data explained partially by other components k 6= k ? . Targeted samples vary from iteration to iteration because batches are visited in distinct, random orders. Creation Before pass 2, we create new components by fitting a DP mixture model with K ? (we take K ? = 10) components to x? , running variational inference for a limited budget of iterations. Taking advantage of our nested truncation, we expand our current model to include all K + K ? components, as shown in Fig. 1. Unlike previous work [9, 4], we do not immediately assess the change in ELBO produced by these new components, and always accept them. We rely on subsequent merge moves (Sec. 3.2) to remove unneeded components. Adoption During pass 2, we visit each batch and perform local and global parameter updates for the expanded (K + K ? )-component mixture. These updates use expanded global summaries S 0 that include summaries S ? from the targeted analysis of x? . This results in two interpretations of the subset x? : assignment to original components (mostly k ? ) and assignment to brand-new components. If the new components are favored, they will gain mass via new assignments made at each batch. After the pass, we subtract away S ? to yield both S 0 and global parameters exactly consistent with the data x. Any nearly-empty new component will likely be pruned away by later merges. By adding many components at once, our birth move allows rapid escape from poor local optima. Alone, births may sometimes cause a slight ELBO decrease by adding unnecessary components. However, in practice merge moves reliably reject poor births and restore original configurations. In Sec. 4, births are so effective that runs started at K = 1 recover necessary components on-the-fly. 3.2 Merge moves that optimize the full data objective The computational cost of inference grows with the number of components K. To keep K small, we develop merge moves that replace two components with a single merged one. Merge moves were first explored for batch variational methods [16, 14]. For hierarchical DP topic models, stochastic 5 6 3 log evidence x10 log evidence x106 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1 0.99 Full K=25 MO K=25 GreedyMerge MO?BM K=1 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 num. passes thru data (N=100000) Data: 5x5 patches worst MO-BM 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1 0.99 3 SOa K=25 SOb K=25 SOc K=25 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 num. passes thru data (N=100000) worst MO worst Full best SOb 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.13 0.25 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.25 0.25 0.13 0.13 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 Figure 2: Comparison of full-data, stochastic (SO), and memoized (MO) on toy data with K = 8 true components (Sec. 4.1). Top: Trace of ELBO during training across 10 runs. SO compared with learning rates a,b,c. Bottom Left: Example patch generated by each component. Bottom: Covariance matrix and weights wk found by one run of each method, aligned to true components. ?X?: no comparable component found. variational inference methods have been augmented to evaluate merge proposals based on noisy, single-batch estimates of the ELBO [4]. This can result in accepted merges that decrease the fulldata objective (see Sec. 4.1 for an empirical illustration). In contrast, our algorithm accurately computes the full ELBO for each merge proposal, ensuring only useful merges are accepted. Given two components ka , kb to merge, we form a candidate q ? with K ? 1 components, where merged component km takes over all assignments to ka , kb : r?nkm = r?nka + r?nkb . Instead of computing new assignments explicitly, additivity allows direct construction of merged global sufficient statistics: Sk0m = Sk0a + Sk0b . Merged global parameters follow from Eq. (10). Our merge move has three steps: select components, form the candidate configuration q ? , and accept q ? if the ELBO improves. Selecting ka , kb to merge at random is unlikely to yield an improved configuration. After choosing ka at random, we select kb using a ratio of marginal likelihoods M which compares the merged and separated configurations, easily computed with cached summaries:   M (Ska + Skb ) p(kb | ka ) ? , M (Sk ) = exp a0 (?0 + sk (x)) . (12) M (Ska )M (Skb ) Our memoized approach allows exact evaluation of the full-data ELBO to compare the existing q to merge candidate q ? . As shown in Eq. (8), evaluating L(q ? ) is a linear function of merged sufficient PN rnka + r?nkb ). statistics, except for the assignment entropy term: Hab = ? n=1 (? rnka + r?nkb ) log(? We compute this term in advance for all possible merge pairs. This requires storing one set of K(K ? 1)/2 scalars, one per candidate pair, for each batch. This modest precomputation allows rapid and exact merge moves, which improve model quality and speed-up post-merge iterations. In one pass of the data, our algorithm performs a birth, memoized ascent steps for all batches, and several merges after the final batch. After a few passes, it recovers high-quality, compact structure. 4 Experimental results We now compare algorithms for learning DP-Gaussian mixture models (DP-GMM), using our own implementations of full-dataset, stochastic online (SO), and memoized online (MO) inference, as well as our new birth-merge memoized algorithm (MO-BM). Code is available online. To examine SO?s sensitivity to learning rate, we use a recommended [1] decay schedule ?t = (t + d)?? with three diverse settings: a) ? = 0.5, d = 10, b) ? = 0.5, d = 100, and c)? = 0.9, d = 10. 4.1 Toy data: How reliably do algorithms escape local optima? We first study N = 100000 synthetic image patches generated by a zero-mean GMM with 8 equallycommon components. Each one is defined by a 25 ? 25 covariance matrix producing 5 ? 5 patches with a strong edge. We investigate whether algorithms recover the true K = 8 structure. Each fixedtruncation method runs from 10 fixed random initializations with K = 25, while MO-BM starts at K = 1. Online methods traverse 100 batches (1000 examples per batch). 6 6 Random Initialization ?2.85 log evidence x10 log evidence x10 6 Smart (k-means++) Initialization ?2.9 ?2.95 ?3 ?3.05 ?3.1 SOa SOb SOc Full 20 batches 100 batches MO MO?BM Kuri ?3 ?3.5 ?4 ?4.5 SOa SOb SOc num. components K Alignment accuracy 0.82 0.8 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.7 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Effective num. components K Full 20 batches 100 batches MO MO?BM Kuri 100 80 60 40 Full MO MO?BM 0 0 40 80 120 160 200 num. pass thru data (N=60000) 20 Figure 3: MNIST. Top: Comparison of final ELBO for multiple runs of each method, varying initialization and number of batches. Stochastic online (SO) compared at learning rates a,b,c. Bottom left: Visualization of cluster means for MO-BM?s best run. Bottom center: Evaluation of cluster alignment to true digit label. Bottom right: Growth in truncation-level K as more data visited with MO-BM. Fig. 2 traces the training-set ELBO as more data arrives for each algorithm and shows estimated covariance matrices for the top 8 components for select runs. Even the best runs of SO do not recover ideal structure. In contrast, all 10 runs of our birth-merge algorithm find all 8 components, despite initialization at K = 1. The ELBO trace plots show this method escaping local optima, with slight drops indicating addition of new components followed by rapid increases as these are adopted. They further suggest that our fixed-truncation memoized method competes favorably with full-data inference, often converging to similar or better solutions after fewer passes through the data. The fact that our MO-BM algorithm only performs merges that improve the full-data ELBO is crucial. Fig. 2 shows trace plots of GreedyMerge, a memoized online variant that instead uses only the current-batch ELBO to assess a proposed merge, as done in [4]. Given small batches (1000 examples each), there is not always enough data to warrant many distinct 25 ? 25 covariance components. Thus, this method favors merges that in fact remove vital structure. All 5 runs of this GreedyMerge algorithm ruinously accept merges that decrease the full objective, consistently collapsing down to just one component. Our memoized approach ensures merges are always globally beneficial. 4.2 MNIST digit clustering We now compare algorithms for clustering N = 60000 MNIST images of handwritten digits 0-9. We preprocess as in [9], projecting each image down to D = 50 dimensions via PCA. Here, we also compare to Kurihara?s public implementation of variational inference with split moves [9]. MO-BM and Kurihara start at K = 1, while other methods are given 10 runs from two K = 100 initialization routines: random and smart (based on k-means++ [17]). For online methods, we compare 20 and 100 batches, and three learning rates. All runs complete 200 passes through the full dataset. The final ELBO values for every run of each method are shown in Fig. 3. SO?s performance varies dramatically across initialization, learning rate, and number of batches. Under random initialization, SO reaches especially poor local optima (note lower y-axis scale). In contrast, our memoized approach consistently delivers solutions on par with full inference, with no apparent sensitivity to the number of batches. With births and merges enabled, MO-BM expands from K = 1 to over 80 components, finding better solutions than every smart K = 100 initialization. MO-BM even outperforms Kurihara?s offline split algorithm, yielding 30-40 more components and higher ELBO values. Altogether, Fig. 3 exposes SO?s extreme sensitivity, validates MO as a more reliable alternative, and shows that our birth-merge algorithm is more effective at avoiding local optima. Fig. 3 also shows cluster means learned by the best MO-BM run, covering many styles of each digit. We further compute a hard segmentation of the data using the q(z) from smart initialization runs. Each DP-GMM cluster is aligned to one digit by majority vote of its members. A plot of alignment accuracy in Fig. 3 shows our MO-BM consistently among the best, with SO lagging significantly. 7 7 log evidence x10 ?1.55 ?1.56 ?1.57 ?1.58 ?1.59 ?1.6 ?1.61 ?1.62 5 SOa K=100 SOb K=100 Full K=100 MO K=100 MO?BM K=1 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 num. passes thru data (N=108754) 4.4 4.35 4.3 4.25 MO?BM K=1 MO K=100 SOa K=100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 num. passes thru data (N=1880200) 300 MO?BM K=1 250 MO K=100 200 SOa K=100 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 num. passes thru data (N=1880200) log evidence x109 4.45 num. components K log evidence x108 Figure 4: SUN-397 tiny images. Left: ELBO during training. Right: Visualization of 10 of 28 learned clusters for best MO-BM run. Each column shows two images from the top 3 categories aligned to one cluster. 2.06 2.04 2.02 2 1.98 1.96 4 MO?BM K=1 MO K=100 SOa K=100 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 num. passes thru data (N=8640000) Figure 5: 8 ? 8 image patches. Left: ELBO during training, N = 1.88 million. Center: Effective truncationlevel K during training, N = 1.88 million. Right: ELBO during training, N = 8.64 million. 4.3 Tiny image clustering We next learn a full-mean DP-GMM for tiny, 32 ? 32 images from the SUN-397 scene categories dataset [18]. We preprocess all 108754 color images via PCA, projecting each example down to D = 50 dimensions. We start MO-BM at K = 1, while other methods have fixed K = 100. Fig. 4 plots the training ELBO as more data is seen. Our MO-BM runs surpass all other algorithms. To verify quality, Fig. 4 shows images from the 3 most-related scene categories for each of several clusters found by MO-BM. For each learned cluster k, we rank all 397 categories to find those with the largest fraction of members assigned to k via r??k . The result is quite sensible, with clusters for tall free-standing objects, swimming pools and lakes, doorways, and waterfalls. 4.4 Image patch modeling Our last experiment applies a zero-mean, full-covariance DP-GMM to learn the covariance structures of natural image patches, inspired by [19, 20]. We compare online algorithms on N = 1.88 million 8 ? 8 patches, a dense subsampling of all patches from 200 images of the Berkeley Segmentation dataset. Fig. 5 shows that our birth-merge memoized algorithm started at K = 1 can consistently add useful components and reach better solutions than alternatives. We also examined a much bigger dataset of N = 8.64 million patches, and still see advantages for our MO-BM. Finally, we perform denoising on 30 heldout images, using code from [19]. Our best MO-BM run on the 1.88 million patch dataset achieves PSNR of 28.537 dB, within 0.05 dB of the PSNR achieved by [19]?s publicly-released GMM with K = 200 trained on a similar corpus. This performance is visually indistinguishable, highlighting the practical value of our new algorithm. 5 Conclusions Our novel memoized online variational algorithm avoids noisiness and sensitivity inherent in stochastic methods. Our birth and merge moves successfully escape local optima. These innovations are applicable to common nonparametric models beyond the Dirichlet process. Acknowledgments This research supported in part by ONR Award No. N00014-13-1-0644. M. Hughes supported in part by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE0228243. 8 References [1] M. Hoffman, D. Blei, C. Wang, and J. Paisley. Stochastic variational inference. JMLR, 14:1303?1347, 2013. [2] R. Ranganath, C. Wang., D. Blei, and E. Xing. An adaptive learning rate for stochastic variational inference. In ICML, 2013. [3] P. Gopalan, D. M. Mimno, S. Gerrish, M. J. Freedman, and D. M. Blei. Scalable inference of overlapping communities. In NIPS, 2012. [4] M. Bryant and E. Sudderth. 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In ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms, pages 1027?1035, 2007. [18] J. Xiao, J. Hays, K. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. SUN database: Large-scale scene recognition from abbey to zoo. In CVPR, 2010. [19] D. Zoran and Y. Weiss. From learning models of natural image patches to whole image restoration. In ICCV, 2011. [20] D. Zoran and Y. Weiss. Natural images, Gaussian mixtures and dead leaves. In NIPS, 2012. 9
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Regret based Robust Solutions for Uncertain Markov Decision Processes Asrar Ahmed Singapore Management University [email protected] Pradeep Varakantham Singapore Management University [email protected] Yossiri Adulyasak Massachusetts Institute of Technology [email protected] Patrick Jaillet Massachusetts Institute of Technology [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we seek robust policies for uncertain Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Most robust optimization approaches for these problems have focussed on the computation of maximin policies which maximize the value corresponding to the worst realization of the uncertainty. Recent work has proposed minimax regret as a suitable alternative to the maximin objective for robust optimization. However, existing algorithms for handling minimax regret are restricted to models with uncertainty over rewards only. We provide algorithms that employ sampling to improve across multiple dimensions: (a) Handle uncertainties over both transition and reward models; (b) Dependence of model uncertainties across state, action pairs and decision epochs; (c) Scalability and quality bounds. Finally, to demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our sampling approaches, we provide comparisons against benchmark algorithms on two domains from literature. We also provide a Sample Average Approximation (SAA) analysis to compute a posteriori error bounds. Introduction Motivated by the difficulty in exact specification of reward and transition models, researchers have proposed the uncertain Markov Decision Process (MDP) model and robustness objectives in solving these models. Given the uncertainty over the reward and transition models, a robust solution can typically provide some guarantees on the worst case performance. Most of the research in computing robust solutions has assumed a maximin objective, where one computes a policy that maximizes the value corresponding to the worst case realization [8, 4, 3, 1, 7]. This line of work has developed scalable algorithms by exploiting independence of uncertainties across states and convexity of uncertainty sets. Recently, techniques have been proposed to deal with dependence of uncertainties [15, 6]. Regan et al. [11] and Xu et al. [16] have proposed minimax regret criterion [13] as a suitable alternative to maximin objective for uncertain MDPs. We also focus on this minimax notion of robustness and also provide a new myopic variant of regret called Cumulative Expected Regret (CER) that allows for development of scalable algorithms. Due to the complexity of computing optimal minimax regret policies [16] , existing algorithms [12] are restricted to handling uncertainty only in reward models and the uncertainties are independent across states. Recent research has shown that sampling-based techniques [5, 9] are not only efficient but also provide a priori (Chernoff-Hoeffiding bounds) and a posteriori [14] quality bounds for planning under uncertainty. In this paper, we also employ sampling-based approaches to address restrictions of existing approaches for obtaining regret-based solutions for uncertain MDPs . More specifically, we make the 1 following contributions: (a) An approximate Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulation with error bounds for computing minimum regret solutions for uncertain MDPs, where the uncertainties across states are dependent. We further provide enhancements and error bounds to improve applicability. (b) We introduce a new myopic concept of regret, referred to as Cumulative Expected Regret (CER) that is intuitive and that allows for development of scalable approaches. (c) Finally, we perform a Sample Average Approximation (SAA) analysis to provide experimental bounds for our approaches on benchmark problems from literature. Preliminaries We now formally define the two regret criterion that will be employed in this paper. In the definitions below, we assume an underlying MDP, M = hS, A, T, R, Hi where a policy is represented as: ~? t = {? t , ? t+1 , . . . , ? H?1 }, the optimal policy as ~? ? and the optimal expected value as v 0 (~? ? ). The maximum reward in any state s is denoted as R? (s) = maxa R(s, a). Throughout the paper, we use ?(s) to denote the starting state distribution in state s and ? to represent the discount factor. Definition 1 Regret for any policy ~? 0 is denoted by reg(~? 0 ) and is defined as: X reg(~? 0 ) = v 0 (~? ? ) ? v 0 (~? 0 ), where v 0 (~? 0 ) = ?(s) ? v 0 (s, ~? 0 ), s t t v (s, ~? ) = X i h X T (s, a, s0 ) ? v t+1 (s0 , ~? t+1 ) ? (s, a) ? R(s, a) + ? t s0 a Extending the definitions of simple and cumulative regret in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems [2], we now define a new variant of regret called Cumulative Expected Regret (CER). Definition 2 CER for policy ~? 0 is denoted by creg(~? 0 ) and is defined as: X creg(~? 0 ) = ?(s) ? creg 0 (s, ~? 0 ), where s t t creg (s, ~? ) = X X   ? t (s, a) ? R? (s) ? R(s, a) + ? T (s, a, s0 ) ? creg t+1 (s0 , ~? t+1 ) a s0 (1) The following properties highlight the dependencies between regret and CER. h i H ) Proposition 1 For a policy ~? 0 : 0 ? reg(~? 0 ) ? creg(~? 0 ) ? maxs R? (s) ? mins R? (s) ? (1?? 1?? Proof Sketch1 By rewriting Equation (1) as creg(~? 0 ) = v 0,# (~? 0 ) ? v 0 (~? 0 ), we provide the proof. Corollary 1 If ?s, s0 ? S : R? (s) = R? (s0 ), then ?~? 0 : creg(~? 0 ) = reg(~? 0 ). Proof. Substituting maxs R? (s) = mins R? (s) in the result of Proposition 1, we have creg(~? 0 ) = reg(~? 0 ).  Uncertain MDP A finite horizon uncertain MDP is defined as the tuple of hS, A, T, R, Hi. S denotes the set of states and A denotes the set of actions. T = ?? (T ) denotes a distribution over the set of transition functions T , where Tkt (s, a, s0 ) denotes the probability of transitioning from state s ? S to state s0 ? S on taking action a ? A at time step t according to the kth element in T . Similarly, R = ?? (R) denotes the distribution over the set of reward functions R, where Rtk (s, a, s0 ) is the reinforcement obtained on taking action a in state s and transitioning to state s0 at time t according to kth element in R. Both T and R sets can have infinite elements. Finally, H is the time horizon. In the above representation, every element of T and R represent uncertainty over the entire horizon and hence this representation captures dependence in uncertainty distributions across states. We now provide a formal definition for the independence of uncertainty distributions that is equivalent to the rectangularity property introduced in Iyengar et al. [4]. 1 Detailed proof provided in supplement under Proposition 1. 2 Definition 3 An uncertainty distribution ?? over the set of transition functions, T is independent over state-action pairs at various decision epochs if Y t k t ?? (T ) = ?s?S,a?A,t?H ??,t P r??,t (Ts,a ) s,a (Ts,a ), i.e. ?k, P r?? (T ) = s,a s,a,t t ?s,a,t Ts,a , t Ts,a k where T = is the set of transition functions for s, a, t; ??,t s,a is the distribution over t the set Ts,a and P r?? (T ) is the probability of the transition function T k given the distribution ?? . We can provide a similar definition for the independence of uncertainty distributions over the reward functions. In the following definitions, we include transition, T and reward, R models as subscripts to indicate value (v), regret (reg) and CER (creg) functions corresponding to a specific MDP. Existing works on computation of maximin policies have the following objective: X 0 ? maximin = arg max min ?(s) ? vT,R (s, ~? 0 ) 0 T ?T ,R?R ~ ? s Our goal is to compute policies that minimize the maximum regret or cumulative regret over possible models of transitional and reward uncertainty. ? reg = arg min max regT,R (~? 0 ); ? creg = arg min max cregT,R (~? 0 ) 0 0 ~ ? T ?T ,R?R ~ ? T ?T ,R?R Regret Minimizing Solution We will first consider the more general case of dependent uncertainty distributions. Our approach to obtaining regret minimizing solution relies on sampling the uncertainty distributions over the transition and reward models. We formulate the regret minimization problem over the sample set as an optimization problem and then approximate it as a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP). We now describe the representation of a sample and the definition of optimal expected value for a sample, a key component in the computation of regret. Since there are dependencies amongst ?,t uncertainties, we can only sample from ?? , ?? and not from ??,t s,a , ?s,a . Thus, a sample is: 0 0 1 1 H?1 H?1 ?q = { Tq , Rq , Tq , Rq , ? ? ? Tq , Rq } where Tqt and Rtq refer to the transition and reward model respectively at time step t in sample q . Let ~? t represent the policy for each time step from t to H ? 1 and the set of samples be denoted by ?. Intuitively, that corresponds to |?| number of discrete MDPs and our goal is to compute one policy that minimizes the regret over all the |?| MDPs, i.e. X ? reg = arg min max ?(s) ? [v??q (s) ? v?0q (s, ~? 0 )] 0 ~ ? v??q ?q ?? s v?0q (s, ~? 0 ) where and denote the optimal expected value and expected value for policy ~? 0 respectively of the sample ?q . Let, ~? 0 be any policy corresponding to the sample ?q , then the expected value is defined as follows: v?tq (s, ~? t ) = X ? t (s, a) ? v?tq (s, a, ~? t ), where v?tq (s, a, ~? t ) = Rtq (s, a) + ? X v?t+1 (s0 , ~? t+1 ) ? Tqt (s, a, s0 ) q s0 a The optimization problem for computing the regret minimizing policy corresponding to sample set ? is then defined as follows: min reg(~? 0 ) ~ ?0 X s.t. reg(~? 0 ) ? v??q ? ?(s) ? v?0q (s, ~? 0 ) ??q (2) s v?tq (s, ~? t ) = X t ? (s, a) ? v?tq (s, a, ~? t ) ?s, ?q , t (3) ?s, a, ?q , t (4) a v?tq (s, a, ~? t ) = Rtq (s, a) + ? X v?t+1 (s0 , ~? t+1 ) ? Tqt (s, a, s0 ) q s0 The value function expression in Equation (3) is a product of two variables, ? t (s, a) and v?tq (s, a, ~? t ), which hampers scalability significantly. We now linearize these nonlinear terms. 3 Mixed Integer Linear Program The optimal policy for minimizing maximum regret in the general case is randomized. However, to account for domains which only allow for deterministic policies, we provide linearization separately for the two cases of deterministic and randomized policies. Deterministic Policy: In case of deterministic policies, we replace Equation (3) with the following equivalent integer linear constraints: v?tq (s, ~? t ) ? v?tq (s, a, ~? t ) ; v?tq (s, ~? t ) ? ? t (s, a) ? M v?tq (s, ~? t ) ? v?tq (s, a, ~? t ) ? (1 ? ? t (s, a)) ? M ?s, a, ?q , t (5) v?tq (s, a, ~? t ). t M is a large positive constant that is an upper bound on Equivalence to the product terms in Equation (3) can be verified by considering all values of ? (s, a). Randomized Policy: When ~? 0 is a randomized policy, we have a product of two continuous variables. We provide a mixed integer linear approximation to address the product terms above. Let, v?t (s, a, ~? t ) ? ? t (s, a) v?t (s, a, ~? t ) + ? t (s, a) t ; B?q (s, a, ~? t ) = q At?q (s, a, ~? t ) = q 2 2 Equation (3) can then be rewritten as: X v?tq (s, ~? t ) = [At?q (s, a, ~? t )2 ? B?tq (s, a, ~? t )2 ] (6) a As discussed in the next subsection on ?Pruning dominated actions?, we can compute upper and lower bounds for v?tq (s, a, ~? t ) and hence for At?q (s, a, ~? t ) and B?tq (s, a, ~? t ). We approximate the squared terms by using piecewise linear components that provide an upper bound on the squared terms. We employ a standard method from literature of dividing the variable range into multiple break points. More specifically, we divide the overall range of At?q (s, a, ~? t ) (or B?tq (s, a, ~? t )), say [br0 , brr ] into r intervals by using r+1 points namely hbr0 , br1 , . . . , brr i. We associate a linear vari2 2 able, ?t?q (s, a, w) with each break point w and then approximate At?q (s, a, ~? t ) (and B?tq (s, a, ~? t ) ) as follows: X At?q (s, a, ~? t ) = ?t?q (s, a, w) ? brw , ?s, a, ?q , t (7) w At?q (s, a, ~? t )2 = X ?t?q (s, a, w) ? (brw )2 , ?s, a, ?q , t (8) ?s, a, ?q , t (9) w X ?t?q (s, a, w) = 1, w t SOS2s,a,t ?q ({??q (s, a, w)}w?r ), ?s, a, ?q , t where SOS2 is a construct which is associated with a set of variables of which at most two variables can be non-zero and if two variables are non-zero they must be adjacent. Since any number in the range lies between at most two adjacent points, we have the above constructs for the ?t?q (s, a, w) variables. We implement the above adjacency constraints on ?t?q (s, a, w) using the CPLEX Special Ordered Sets (SOS) type 22 . Proposition 2 Let [c,d] denote the range of values for At?q (s, a, ~? t ) and assume we have r + 1 points that divide At?q (s, a, ~? t )2 into r equal intervals of size  = error ? < 4 . d2 ?c2 r then the approximation Proof: Let the r + 1 points be br0 , . . . , brr . By definition, we have (brw )2 = (brw?1 )2 + . Because of the convexity of x2 function, the maximum approximation error in any interval [brw?1 , brw ] occurs at its mid-point3 . Hence, approximation error ? is given by:  2 (brw )2 + (brw?1 )2 brw + brw?1  + 2 ? brw?1 ? (brw?1 ? brw )  ? ? ? = <  2 2 4 4 2 3 Using CPLEX SOS-2 considerably improves runtime compared to a binary variables formulation. Proposition and proof provided in supplement as footnote 3 4 Proposition 3 Let v??tq (s, ~? t ) denote the approximation of v?tq (s, ~? t ). Then v?tq (s, ~? t ) ? |A| ?  ? (1 ? ? H?1 ) |A| ?  ? (1 ? ? H?1 ) ? v??tq (s, ~? t ) ? v?tq (s, ~? t ) + 4 ? (1 ? ?) 4 ? (1 ? ?) Proof Sketch4 : We use the approximation error provided in Proposition 2 and propagate it through the value function update.  Corollary 2 The positive and negative errors in regret are bounded by |A|??(1?? H?1 ) 4?(1??) Proof. From Equation (2) and Proposition 3, we have the proof.  Since the break points are fixed before hand, we can find tighter bounds (refer to Proof of Proposition 2). Also, we can further improve on the performance (both run-time and solution quality) of the MILP by pruning out dominated actions and adopting clever sampling strategies as discussed in the next subsections. Pruning dominated actions We now introduce a pruning approach5 to remove actions that will never be assigned a positive probability in a regret minimization strategy. For every state-action pair at each time step, we define a minimum and maximum value function as follows: (s, a) v?t,min q v?t,max (s, a) q n o Tqt (s, a, s0 ) ? v?t+1,min (s0 ) ; v?t,min (s) = mina v?t,min (s, a) q q q n o P = Rtq (s, a) + ? s0 Tqt (s, a, s0 ) ? v?t+1,max (s0 ) ; v?t,max (s) = maxa v?t,max (s, a) q q q = Rtq (s, a) + ? P s0 An action a0 is pruned if there exists the same action a over all samples ?q , such that v?t,min (s, a) ? v?t,max (s, a0 ) ?a, ??q q q The above pruning step follows from the observation that an action whose best case payoff is less than the worst case payoff of another action a cannot be part of the regret optimal strategy, since we could switch from a0 to a without increasing the regret value. It should be noted that an action that is not optimal for any of the samples cannot be pruned. Greedy sampling The scalability of the MILP formulation above is constrained by the number of samples Q. So, instead of generating only the fixed set of Q samples from the uncertainty distribution over models, we generate more than Q samples and then pick a set of size Q so that samples are ?as far apart? as possible. The key intuition in selecting the samples is to consider distance among samples as being equivalent to entropy in the optimal policies for the MDPs in the samples. For each decision epoch, t, each state s and action a, we define P r?s,a,t (???t (s, a) = 1) to be the probability that a is the optimal action in state s at time t. Similarly, we define P r?s,a,t (???t (s, a) = 0):  P  P ?t ?t 1 ? ? (s, a) (s, a) ? ?q ?q ?q ?q P r?s,a,t (???t (s, a) = 1) = ; P r?s,a,t (???t (s, a) = 0) = Q Q Let the total entropy of sample set, ? (|?| = Q) be represented as ?S(?), then X X  ?S(?) = ? P r?s,a,t (???t (s, a) = z) ? ln P r?s,a,t (???t (s, a) = z) t,s,a z?{0,1} We use a greedy strategy to select the Q samples, i.e. we iteratively add samples that maximize entropy of the sample set in that iteration. It is possible to provide bounds on the number of samples required for a given error using the methods suggested by Shapiro et al. [14]. However these bounds are conservative and as we show in the experimental results section, typically, we only require a small number of samples. 4 5 Detailed proof in supplement under Proposition 3 Pseudo code provided in the supplement under ?Pruning dominated actions? section. 5 CER Minimizing Solution The MILP based approach mentioned in the previous section can easily be adapted to minimize the maximum cumulative regret over all samples when uncertainties across states are dependent: min creg(~? 0 ) ~ ?0 s.t. creg(~? 0 ) ? X ?(s) ? creg?0q (s, ~? t ), ??q s creg?tq (s, ~? t ) = X ? t (s, a) ? creg?tq (s, a, ~? t ), ?s, t, ?q (10) ?s, a, t, ?q (11) a t creg?tq (s, a, ~? t ) = R?,t q (s) ? Rq (s, a) + ? X Tqt (s, a, s0 ) ? creg?t+1 (s0 , ~? t+1 ), q s0 where the product term ? t (s, a) ? creg?tq (s, a, ~? t ) is approximated as described earlier. While we were unable to exploit the independence of uncertainty distributions across states with minimax regret, we are able to exploit the independence with minimax CER. In fact, a key advantage of the CER robustness concept in the context of independent uncertainties is that it has the optimal substructure over time steps and hence a Dynamic Programming(DP) algorithm can be used to solve it. In the case of independent uncertainties, samples at each time step can be drawn independently and we now introduce a formal notation to account for samples drawn at each time step. Let ? t denote the set of samples at time step t, then ? = ?t?H?1 ? t . Further, we use ?~t to indicate cross product of samples from t to H ? 1, i.e. ?~t = ?t?e?H?1 ? e . Thus, ?~0 = ?. To indicate the entire horizon samples corresponding to a sample p from time step t, we have ?~pt = ?pt ? ?~t+1 . ?,t?1 (s) ? Rt?1 For notational compactness, we use ?Rt?1 p (s, a). Because of indepenp (s, a) = Rp t?1 dence in uncertainties across time steps, for a sample set ?~p = ?pt?1 ? ?~t , we have the following: X ? t?1 ) = max max creg?~t?1 t?1 (s, ~ t?1 ~p ? t?1 t ?p ??p p = max t?1 ?p X h i X t ? t?1 (s, a) ?Rt?1 Tp (s, a, s0 ) ? creg?~t t (s0 , ~? t ) p (s, a) + ? s0 a ? t?1 h i X t (s, a) ?Rt?1 Tp (s, a, s0 ) ? max creg?~t t (s0 , ~? t ) p (s, a) + ? q ~t ?? ~t ? q s0 a (12) Proposition 4 At time step t ? 1, the CER corresponding to any policy ? t?1 will have least regret if it includes the CER minimizing policy from t. Formally, if ~? ?,t represents the CER minimizing policy from t and ~? t represents any arbitrary policy, then:     t?1 t?1 ?s : max creg~t?1 , ~? ?,t ? max creg~t?1 , ~? t (13) t?1 s, ? t?1 s, ? ?~pt?1 ??~t?1 ?p if, ?s : ?~pt?1 ??~t?1 max creg?~t t (s, ~? ?,t ) q ~ ?qt ??~t ? ?p max creg?~t t (s, ~? t ) q ~ ?qt ??~t (14) Proof Sketch6 We prove this by using Equations (14) and (12) in LHS of Equation (13).  It is easy to show that minimizing CER also has an optimal substructure: X X   min max ?(s) ? creg?~00 (s, ~? 0 ) =? min ?(s) ? max creg?~00 (s, ~? 0 ) 0 0 ~ ? ?~p0 s ~ ? p s ?~p0 (15) p In Proposition 4 (extending the reasoning to t = 1), we have already shown that max?~0 creg?~00 (s, ~? 0 ) p p has an optimal substructure. Thus, Equation (15) can also exploit the optimal substructure. M INIMIZE CER function below provides the pseudo code for a DP algorithm that exploits this structure. At each stage, t we calculate the creg for each state-action pair corresponding to each of the 6 Detailed proof in supplement under Proposition 4. 6 samples at that stage, i.e. ? t (lines 6-9). Once these are computed, we obtain the maximum creg and the policy corresponding to it (line 10) using the G ET CER() function. In the next iteration, creg computed at t is then used in the computation of creg at t ? 1 using the same update step (lines 6-9). M INIMIZE CER() 1: for all t ? H ? 1 do 2: ? t ? G EN S AMPLES(T, R) 3: for all s ? S do 4: creg H (s) ? 0 5: while t >= 0 do 6: for all s ? S do 7: for all ?qt ? ? t , a ? A do 8: creg?tqt (s, a) ? ?Rqt (s, a)+ P 9: ? s 0 Tqt (s, a, s0 ) ? creg t+1 (s0 ) t 10: ? , creg t (s) ? G ET CER (s, {creg?tqt (s, a)}) 11: t?t?1 return (creg ~ 0 , ~? 0 ) G ET CER (s, {creg?tqt (s, a)}) min creg t (s) ? X t creg t (s) ? ? (s, a) ? creg?tqt (s, a), ??qt a X t ? (s, a) = 1 a 0 ? ? t (s, a) ? 1, ?a It can be noted that M INIMIZE CER() makes only H ? |S| calls to the LP in G ET CER() function, each of which has only |A| continuous variables and at most [1 + maxt |? t |] number of constraints. Thus, the overall complexity of MinimizeCER() is polynomial in the number of samples given fixed values of other attributes. Let creg ?,H?1 (s, a) denote the optimal cumulative regret at time step H ? 1 for taking action a in state s and creg??,H?1 (s, a) denote the optimal cumulative regret over the sample set ?. Let indicator ( 1 if creg ?,H?1 (s, a) ? creg??,H?1 (s, a) ? ? random variable, X be defined as follows: X = 0 otherwise By using Chernoff and Hoeffding bounds on X, it is possible to provide bounds on deviation from mean and on the number of samples at H ? 1. This can then be propagated to H ? 2 and so on. However, these bounds can be very loose and they do not exploit the properties of creg functions. Bounds developed on spacings of order statistics can help exploit the properties of creg functions. We will leave this for future work. Experimental Results In this section, we provide performance comparison of various algorithms introduced in previous sections over two domains. MILP-Regret refers to the randomized policy variant of the MILP approximation algorithm for solving uncertain MDPs with dependent uncertainties. Similar one for minimizing CER is referred to as MILP-CER. We refer to the dynamic programming algorithm for minimizing CER in the independent uncertainty case as DP-CER and finally, we refer to the maximin value algorithm as ?Maximin?. All the algorithms finished within 15 minutes on all the problems. DP-CER was much faster than other algorithms and finished within a minute on the largest problems. We provide the following results in this section: (1) Performance comparison of Greedy sampling and Random sampling strategies in the context of MILP-Regret as we increase the number of samples. (2) SAA analysis of the results obtained using MILP-Regret. (3) Comparison of MILP-Regret and MILP-CER policies with respect to simulated regret. (4) Comparison of DP-CER and Maximin. The first three comparisons correspond to the dependent uncertainties case and the results are based on a path planning problem that is motivated by disaster rescue and is a modification of the one employed in Bagnell et al. [1]. On top of normal transitional uncertainty, we have uncertainty over transition and reward models due to random obstacles and random reward cells. Furthermore, these uncertainties are dependent on each other due to patterns in terrains. Each sample of the various uncertainties represents an individual map and can be modelled as an MDP. We experimented with 7 SAA Analysis Sampling Strategies (MILP-Regret) 0.5 Gap 0.3 1 0.5 0.2 0 0.1 ?0.5 0 ?1 10 15 Samples (a) 20 1 2 3 2 1.5 0.4 5 400 25 5 10 15 20 25 Performance Random Greedy 0.6 Di?erence DP-CER Analysis 2.5 0.7 DP-CER (0.3) Maximin (0.3) DP-CER (0.5) Maximin (0.5) DP-CER (0.7) Maximin (0.7) 300 200 100 0 0.1 0.2 Samples (b) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Cost-to-revenue ratio (c) Figure 1: In (a),(b) we have 4 ? 4 grid, H = 5. In (c), the maximum inventory size (X) = 50, H = 20, |? t | = 50. The normal distribution mean ? = {0.3, 0.4, 0.5} ? X and ? ? min{?,X??} 3 a grid world of size 4x4 while varying numbers of obstacles, reward cells, horizon and the number of break points employed (3-6). In Figure 1a, we show the effect of using greedy sampling strategy on the MILP-Regret policy. On X-axis, we represent the number of samples used for computation of policy (learning set). The test set from which the samples were selected consisted of 250 samples. We then obtained the policies using MILP-Regret corresponding to the sample sets (referred to as learning set) generated by using the two sampling strategies. On Y-axis, we show the percentage difference between simulated regret values on test and learning sample sets. We observe that for a fixed difference, the number of samples required by greedy is significantly lower in comparison to random. Furthermore, the variance in difference is also much lower for greedy. A key result from this graph is that even with just 15 samples, the difference with actual regret is less than 10%. Figure 1b shows that even the gap obtained using SAA analysis7 is near zero (< 0.1) with 15 samples. We have shown the gap and variance on the gap over three different settings of uncertainty labeled 1,2 and 3. Setting 3 has the highest uncertainty over the models and Setting 1 has the least uncertainty. The variance over the gap was higher for higher uncertainty settings. While MILP-CER obtained a simulated regret value (over 250 samples) within the bound provided in Proposition 1, we were unable to find any correlation in the simulated regret values of MILPRegret and MILP-CER policies as the samples were increased. We have not yet ascertained a reason for there being no correlation in performance. In the last result shown in Figure 1c, we employ the well known single product finite horizon stochastic inventory control problem [10]. We compare DP-CER against the widely used benchmark algorithm on this domain, Maximin. The demand values at each decision epoch were taken from a normal distribution. We considered three different settings of mean and variance of the demand. As expected, the DP-CER approach provides much higher values than maximin and the difference between the two reduced as the cost to revenue ratio increased. We obtained similar results when the demands were taken from other distributions (uniform and bi-modal). Conclusions We have introduced scalable sampling-based mechanisms for optimizing regret and a new variant of regret called CER in uncertain MDPs with dependent and independent uncertainties across states. We have provided a variety of theoretical results that indicate the connection between regret and CER, quality bounds on regret in case of MILP-Regret, optimal substructure in optimizing CER for independent uncertainty case and run-time performance for MinimizeCER. In the future, we hope to better understand the correlation between regret and CER, while also understanding the properties of CER policies. Acknowledgement This research was supported in part by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technologys Future Urban Mobility research programme. The last author was also supported by ONR grant N00014-12-1-0999. 7 We have provided the method for performing SAA analysis in the supplement. 8 References [1] J. Andrew Bagnell, Andrew Y. Ng, and Jeff G. Schneider. Solving uncertain markov decision processes. Technical report, Carnegie Mellon University, 2001. [2] S?ebastien Bubeck, R?emi Munos, and Gilles Stoltz. Pure exploration in multi-armed bandits problems. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference on Algorithmic learning theory, Algorithmic Learning Theory, 2009. [3] Robert Givan, Sonia Leach, and Thomas Dean. Bounded-parameter markov decision processes. Artificial Intelligence, 122, 2000. [4] G. Iyengar. Robust dynamic programming. Mathematics of Operations Research, 30, 2004. [5] Michael Kearns, Yishay Mansour, and Andrew Y. Ng. A sparse sampling algorithm for nearoptimal planning in large markov decision processes. Machine Learning, 49, 2002. [6] Shie Mannor, Ofir Mebel, and Huan Xu. Lightning does not strike twice: Robust MDPs with coupled uncertainty. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2012. [7] Andrew Mastin and Patrick Jaillet. Loss bounds for uncertain transition probabilities in markov decision processes. In IEEE Annual Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), 2012, 2012. [8] Arnab Nilim and Laurent El Ghaoui. Ghaoui, l.: Robust control of markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices. Operations Research, 2005. [9] Joelle Pineau, Geoffrey J. Gordon, and Sebastian Thrun. Point-based value iteration: An anytime algorithm for POMDPs. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2003. [10] Martin Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. John Wiley and Sons, 1994. [11] Kevin Regan and Craig Boutilier. Regret-based reward elicitation for markov decision processes. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2009. [12] Kevin Regan and Craig Boutilier. Robust policy computation in reward-uncertain MDPs using nondominated policies. In National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2010. [13] Leonard Savage. The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley, 1954. [14] A. Shapiro. Monte carlo sampling methods. In Stochastic Programming, volume 10 of Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science. Elsevier, 2003. [15] Wolfram Wiesemann, Daniel Kuhn, and Ber Rustem. Robust markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 38(1), 2013. [16] Huan Xu and Shie Mannor. Parametric regret in uncertain markov decision processes. In IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, CDC, 2009. 9
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Improved and Generalized Upper Bounds on the Complexity of Policy Iteration Bruno Scherrer Inria, Villers-l`es-Nancy, F-54600, France Universit?e de Lorraine, LORIA, UMR 7503, Vandoeuvre-l`es-Nancy, F-54506, France [email protected] Abstract Given a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with n states and m actions per state, we study the number of iterations needed by Policy Iteration (PI) algorithms to converge to the optimal ?-discounted optimal policy. We consider two variations of PI: Howard?s PI that changes the actions in all states with a positive advantage, and Simplex-PI that only changes the action in the state with maximal ?advantage. PI 1 We2?show that 1 Howard?s 1 22 terminates 1 1 nm 1 after at most n(m ? 1) 1?? log 1?? = O 1?? log 1?? iterations, improving by a factor O(log 1 n) a result by1 [3], while 22 Simplex-PI 1 2 terminates 1 22 2 1 m 1 2 after at most n (m ? 1) 1 + 1?? log 1?? = O n1?? log 1?? iterations, improving by a factor O(log n) a result by [11]. Under some structural assumptions of the MDP, we then consider bounds that are independent of the discount factor ?: given a measure of the maximal transient time ?t and the maximal time ?r to revisit states in recurrent classes under all policies, we show that Simplex-PI terminates after at most n2 (m? # $ 1) (??r log(n?r )? + ??r log(n?t )?) (m ? 1)?n?t log(n?t )? + ?n?t log(n2 ?t )? = ! " ? n3 m2 ?t ?r iterations. This generalizes a recent result for determinO istic MDPs by [8], in which ?t ? n and ?r ? n. We explain why similar results seem hard to derive for Howard?s PI. Finally, under the additional (restrictive) assumption that the state space is partitioned in two sets, respectively states that are transient and recurrent for all policies, we show that Howard?s PI terminates after at most ? n(m ? 1) (??t log n?t ? + ??r log n?r ?) = O(nm(? t + ?r )) iterations while Simplex-PI terminates after n(m ? 1) (?n?t log n?t ? + ??r log n?r ?) = ? 2 m(?t + ?r )) iterations. O(n 1 Introduction We consider a discrete-time dynamic system whose state transition depends on a control. We assume that there is a state space X of finite size n. At state i ? {1, .., n}, the control is chosen from a control space A of finite size1 m. The control a ? A specifies the transition probability pij (a) = P(it+1 = j|it = i, at = a) to the next state j. At each transition, the system is given a reward r(i, a, j) where r is the instantaneous reward function. In this context, we look for a stationary deterministic policy (a function ? : X ? A that maps 1 In the works of [11, 8, 3] that we reference, the integer ?m? denotes the total number of actions, that is nm with our notation. When we restate their result, we do it with our own notation, that is we replace their ?? m?? by ?? nm?? . 1 states into controls2 ) that maximizes the expected discounted sum of rewards from any state i, called the value of policy ? at state i: C ? D ? k v? (i) := E ? r(ik , ak , ik+1 )- i0 = i, ?k ? 0, ak = ?(ik ), ik+1 ? P(?|ik , ak ) k=0 where ? ? (0, 1) is a discount factor. The tuple ?X, A, p, r, ?? is called a Markov Decision Process (MDP) [9, 1], and the associated problem is known as optimal control. The optimal value starting from state i is defined as v? (i) := max v? (i). ? For any policy ?, we write P? for the n ? n qstochastic matrix whose elements are pij (?(i)) and r? the vector whose components are j pij (?(i))r(i, ?(i), j). The value functions v? and v? can be seen as vectors on X. It is well known that v? is the solution of the following Bellman equation: v? = r? + ?P? v? , that is v? is a fixed point of the affine operator T? : v ?? r? + ?P? v. It is also well known that v? satisfies the following Bellman equation: v? = max(r? + ?P? v? ) = max T? v? ? ? where the max operator is componentwise. In other words, v? is a fixed point of the nonlinear operator T : v ?? max? T? v. For any value vector v, we say that a policy ? is greedy with respect to the value v if it satisfies: ? ? arg max T? ? v ? ? or equivalently T? v = T v. With some slight abuse of notation, we write G(v) for any policy that is greedy with respect to v. The notions of optimal value function and greedy policies are fundamental to optimal control because of the following property: any policy ?? that is greedy with respect to the optimal value v? is an optimal policy and its value v?? is equal to v? . Let ? be some policy. We call advantage with respect to ? the following quantity: a? = max T?? v? ? v? = T v? ? v? . ? ? We call the set of switchable states of ? the following set S? = {i, a? (i) > 0}. Assume now that ? is non-optimal (this implies that S? is a non-empty set). For any non-empty subset Y of S? , we denote switch(?, Y ) a policy satisfying: ; G(v? )(i) if i ? Y ?i, switch(?, Y )(i) = ?(i) if i ?? Y. The following result is well known (see for instance [9]). Lemma 1. Let ? be some non-optimal policy. If ? ? = switch(?, Y ) for some non-empty subset Y of S? , then v?? ? v? and there exists at least one state i such that v?? (i) > v? (i). This lemma is the foundation of the well-known iterative procedure, called Policy Iteration (PI), that generates a sequence of policies (?k ) as follows. ?k+1 ? switch(?k , Yk ) for some set Yk such that ? ( Yk ? S?k . The choice for the subsets Yk leads to different variations of PI. In this paper we will focus on two specific variations: 2 Restricting our attention to stationary deterministic policies is not a limitation. Indeed, for the optimality criterion to be defined soon, it can be shown that there exists at least one stationary deterministic policy that is optimal [9]. 2 ? When for all iterations k, Yk = S?k , that is one switches the actions in all states with positive advantage with respect to ?k , the above algorithm is known as Howard?s PI; it can be seen then that ?k+1 ? G(v?k ). ? When for all k, Yk is a singleton containing a state ik ? arg maxi a?k (i), that is if we only switch one action in the state with maximal advantage with respect to ?k , we will call it Simplex-PI3 . Since it generates a sequence of policies with increasing values, any variation of PI converges to the optimal policy in a number of iterations that is smaller than the total number of policies mn . In practice, PI converges in very few iterations. On random MDP instances, convergence often occurs in time sub-linear in n. The aim of this paper is to discuss existing and provide new upper bounds on the number of iterations required by Howard?s PI and Simplex-PI that are much sharper than mn . In the next sections, we describe some known results?see [11] for a recent and comprehensive review?about the number of iterations required by Howard?s PI and Simplex-PI, along with some of our original improvements and extensions.4 2 Bounds with respect to a Fixed Discount Factor ? < 1 A key observation for both algorithms, that will be central to the results we are about to discuss, is that the sequence they generate satisfies some contraction property5 . For any vector u ? Rn , let ?u?? = max1?i?n |u(i)| be the max-norm of u. Let 1 be the vector of which all components are equal to 1. Lemma 2 (Proof in Section A). The sequence (?v? ? v?k ?? )k?0 built by Howard?s PI is contracting with coefficient ?. Lemma 3 (Proof in Section B). The sequence (1T (v? ? v?k ))k?0 built by Simplex-PI is contracting with coefficient 1 ? 1?? n . Though this observation is widely known for Howard?s PI, it was to our knowledge never mentionned explicitly in the literature for Simplex-PI. These contraction properties have the following immediate consequence6 . ?r? ?? Corollary 1. Let Vmax = max?1?? be an upper bound on ?v? ?? for all policies ?. In order to get an ?-optimal policy, that is a policy ?k satisfying ?v? ? v?k ?? ???, Howard?s ? ? ? PI requires at most iterations. log Vmax ? 1?? iterations, while Simplex-PI requires at most n log nVmax ? 1?? These bounds depend on the precision term ?, which means that Howard?s PI and SimplexPI are weakly polynomial for a fixed discount factor ?. An important breakthrough was recently achieved by [11] who proved that one can remove the dependency with respect to ?, and thus show that Howard?s PI and Simplex-PI are strongly polynomial for a fixed discount factor ?. Theorem ? 11 ([11]). 2? Simplex-PI and Howard?s PI both terminate after at most n(m ? 1) n 1?? log n2 1?? iterations. 3 In this case, PI is equivalent to running the simplex algorithm with the highest-pivot rule on a linear program version of the MDP problem [11]. 4 For clarity, all proofs are deferred to the Appendix. The first proofs about bounds for the case ? < 1 are given in the Appendix of the paper. The other proofs, that are more involved, are provided in the Supplementary Material. 5 A sequence of non-negative numbers (xk )k?0 is contracting with coefficient ? if and only if for all k ? 0, xk+1 ? ?xk . 6 For Howard?s PI, we have: ?v? ?v?k ?? ? ? k ?v? ?v?0 ?? ? ? k Vmax . Thus, a sufficient condition for ?v? ? v?k ?? < ? is ? k Vmax < ?, which is implied by k ? ! have ?v? ? v?k ?? ? ?v? ? v?k ?1 ? 1 ? is similar to that for Howard?s PI. 1?? n "k log max ? 1?? V ! ?v? ? v?0 ?1 ? 1 ? 3 > 1?? n log " Vmax ? . For Simplex-PI, we 1 log ? k nVmax , and the conclusion The proof is based on the fact that PI corresponds to the simplex algorithm in a linear programming formulation of the MDP problem. Using a more direct proof, [3] recently improved the result by a factor O(n) for Howard?s PI. ? 1 2? 1 n Theorem 2 ([3]). Howard?s PI terminates after at most (nm + 1) 1?? log 1?? iterations. Our first two results, that are consequences of the contraction properties (Lemmas 2 and 3), are stated in the following theorems. Theorem in Section C). Howard?s PI terminates after at most n(m ? ? 13 (Proof 2? 1) 1 1?? log 1 1?? iterations. Theorem in Section D). Simplex-PI terminates after at most n(m ? ? 14 (Proof 2? n n 1) 1?? log 1?? iterations. Our result for Howard?s PI is a factor O(log n) better than the previous best result of [3]. Our result for Simplex-PI is only very slightly better (by a factor 2) than that of [11], and uses a proof that is more direct. Using more refined argument, we managed to also improve the bound for Simplex-PI by a factor O(log n). 2 Theorem 5 (Proof 1 2 in Section E). Simplex-PI terminates after at most n (m ? 1) 1 + 2 1?? 1 log 1?? iterations. Compared to Howard?s PI, our bound for Simplex-PI is a factor O(n) larger. However, since one changes only one action per iteration, each iteration may have a complexity lower by a factor n: the update of the value can be done in time O(n2 ) through the Sherman-Morrisson formula, though in general each iteration of Howard?s PI, which amounts to compute the value of some policy that may be arbitrarily different from the previous policy, may require O(n3 ) time. Overall, both algorithms seem to have a similar complexity. It is easy to see that the linear dependency of the bound for Howard?s PI with respect to n is optimal. We conjecture that the linear dependency of both bounds with respect to 1 m is also optimal. The dependency with respect to the term 1?? may be improved, but removing it is impossible for Howard?s PI and very unlikely for Simplex-PI. [2] describes an MDP for which Howard?s PI requires an exponential (in n) number of iterations for ? = 1 and [5] argued that this holds also when ? is in the vicinity of 1. Though a similar result does not seem to exist for Simplex-PI in the literature, [7] consider four variations of PI that all switch one action per iteration, and show through specifically designed MDPs that they may require an exponential (in n) number of iterations when ? = 1. 3 Bounds for Simplex-PI that are independent of ? In this section, we will describe some bounds that do not depend on ? but that will be based on some structural assumptions of the MDPs. On this topic, [8] recently showed the following result for deterministic MDPs. Theorem 6 ([8]). If the MDP is deterministic, then Simplex-PI terminates after at most O(n5 m2 log2 n) iterations. Given a policy ? of a deterministic MDP, states are either on cycles or on paths induced by ?. The core of the proof relies on the following lemmas that altogether show that cycles are created regularly and that significant progress is made every time a new cycle appears; in other words, significant progress is made regularly. Lemma 4. If the MDP is deterministic, after at most nm?2(n ? 1) log n? iterations, either Simplex-PI finishes or a new cycle appears. Lemma 5. If the MDP is deterministic, when Simplex-PI moves from ? to ? ? where ? ? involves a new cycle, we have 3 4 1 T ? 1 (v?? ? v? ) ? 1 ? 1T (v?? ? v? ). n 4 Indeed, these observations suffice to prove7 that Simplex-PI terminates after n ? 4 m2 ). Removing completely the dependency with respect to the O(n4 m2 log 1?? ) = O(n 1 discount factor ??the term in O(log 1?? )?requires a careful extra work described in [8], which incurs an extra term of order O(n log(n)). At a more technical level, the proof of [8] critically relies on some properties of the vector x? = (I ? ?P?T )?1 1 that provides a discounted measure of state visitations along the trajectories induced by a policy ? starting from a uniform distribution: ?i ? X, x? (i) = n ? ? t=0 ? t P(it = i | i0 ? U, at = ?(it )), where U denotes the uniform on the state space X. For any policy ? and state 1 distribution 2 n i, we trivially have x? (i) ? 1, 1?? . The proof exploits the fact that x? (i) belongs to the 1 n set (1, n) when i is on a path of ?, while x? (i) belongs to the set ( 1?? , 1?? ) when i is on a cycle of ?. As we are going to show, it is possible to extend the proof of [8] to stochastic MDPs. Given a policy ? of a stochastic MDP, states are either in recurrent classes or transient classes (these two categories respectively generalize those of cycles and paths). We will consider the following structural assumption. Assumption 1. Let ?t ? 1 and ?r ? 1 be the smallest constants such that for all policies ? and all states i, (1 ? )x? (i) ? ?t 3 4 n n ? x? (i) ? (1 ? ?)?r 1?? if i is transient for ?, and if i is recurrent for ?. The constant ?t (resp. ?r ) can be seen as a measure of the time needed to leave transient states (resp. the time needed to revisit states in recurrent classes). In particular, when ? tends to 1, it can be seen that ?t is an upper bound of the expected time L needed to ?Leave the set of transient states?, since for any policy ?, lim ?t ? ??1 1 lim n ??1 i ? transient for x? (i) = ? ? ? t=0 P(it transient for ? | i0 ? U, at = ?(it )) = E [ L | i0 ? U, at = ?(it )] . Similarly, when ? is in the vicinity of 1, ?1r is the minimal asymptotic frequency8 in recurrent states given that one starts from a random uniform state, since for any policy ? and recurrent state i: ? ? 1?? lim x? (i) = lim (1 ? ?) ? t P(it = i | i0 ? U, at = ?(it )) ??1 ??1 n t=0 T ?1 1 ? P(it = i | i0 ? U, at = ?(it )). T ?? T t=0 = lim With Assumption 1 in hand, we can generalize Lemmas 4-5 as follows. Lemma 6. If the MDP satisfies Assumption 1, after at most # $ n (m ? 1)?n?t log(n?t )? + ?n?t log(n2 ?t )? iterations either Simplex-PI finishes or a new recurrent class appears. 7 This can be done by using arguments similar to the proof of Theorem 4 in Section D. If the MDP is aperiodic and irreducible, and thus admits a stationary distribution ?? for any policy ?, one can see that 1 = min ?? (i). ?, i recurrent for ? ?r 8 5 Lemma 7. If the MDP satisfies Assumption 1, when Simplex-PI moves from ? to ? ? where ? ? involves a new recurrent class, we have 3 4 1 T 1 (v?? ? v?? ) ? 1 ? 1T (v?? ? v? ). ?r From these generalized observations, we can deduce the following original result. Theorem 7 (Proof in Appendix F of the Supp. Material). If the MDP satisfies Assumption 1, then Simplex-PI terminates after at most # $ n2 (m ? 1) (??r log(n?r )? + ??r log(n?t )?) (m ? 1)?n?t log(n?t )? + ?n?t log(n2 ?t )? iterations. Remark 1. This new result is a strict generalization of the result for deterministic MDPs. Indeed, in the deterministic case, we have ?t ? n and ?r ? n, and it is is easy to see that Lemmas 6, 7 and Theorem 7 respectively imply Lemmas 4, 5 and Theorem 6. An immediate consequence of the above result is that Simplex-PI is strongly polynomial for sets of MDPs that are much larger than the deterministic MDPs mentionned in Theorem 6. Corollary 2. For any family of MDPs indexed by n and m such that ?t and ?r are polynomial functions of n and m, Simplex-PI terminates after a number of steps that is polynomial in n and m. 4 Similar results for Howard?s PI? One may then wonder whether similar results can be derived for Howard?s PI. Unfortunately, and as quickly mentionned by [8], the line of analysis developped for Simplex-PI does not seem to adapt easily to Howard?s PI, because simultaneously switching several actions can interfere in a way that the policy improvement turns out to be small. We can be more precise on what actually breaks in the approach we have described so far. On the one hand, it is possible to write counterparts of Lemmas 4 and 6 for Howard?s PI (see Appendix G of the Supp. Material). Lemma 8. If the MDP is deterministic, after at most n iterations, either Howard?s PI finishes or a new cycle appears. Lemma 9. If the MDP satisfies Assumption 1, after at most nm??t log n?t ? iterations, either Howard?s PI finishes or a new recurrent class appears. However, on the other hand, we did not manage to adapt Lemma 5 nor Lemma 7. In fact, it is unlikely that a result similar to that of Lemma 5 will be shown to hold for Howard?s PI. In a recent deterministic example due to [4] to show that Howard?s PI may require at most O(n2 ) iterations, new cycles are created every single iteration but the sequence of values 2 satisfies9 for all iterations k < n4 + n4 and states i, C 3 4k D 2 v? (i) ? v?k+1 (i) ? 1 ? (v? (i) ? v?k (i)). n Contrary to Lemma 5, as k grows, the amount of contraction gets (exponentially) smaller and smaller. With respect to Simplex-PI, this suggests that Howard?s PI may suffer from subtle specific pathologies. In fact, the problem of determining the number of iterations required by Howard?s PI has been challenging for almost 30 years. It was originally identified as an open problem by [10]. In the simplest?deterministic?case, the question is still open: the currently best known lower bound is the O(n2 ) bound by [4] we have just mentionned, n while the best known upper bound is O( mn ) (valid for all MDPs) due to [6]. 9 This MDP has an even number of states n = 2p. The goal is to minimize the long term expected cost. The optimal value function satisfies v? (i) = ?pN for all i, with N = p2 + p. The policies generated by Howard?s PI have values v?k (i) ? (pN ?k?1 , pN ?k ). We deduce that for all iterations k and states i, v? (i)?v?k+1 (i) v? (i)?v?k (i) ? 1+p?k?2 1+p?k =1? p?k ?p?k?2 1+p?k 6 ? 1 ? p?k (1 ? p?2 ) ? 1 ? p?k . On the positive side, an adaptation of the line of proof we have considered so far can be carried out under the following assumption. Assumption 2. The state space X can be partitioned in two sets T and R such that for all policies ?, the states of T are transient and those of R are recurrent. Indeed, under this assumption, we can prove for Howard?s PI a variation of Lemma 7 introduced for Simplex-PI. Lemma 10. For an MDP satisfying Assumptions 1-2, suppose Howard?s PI moves from ? to ? ? and that ? ? involves a new recurrent class. Then 3 4 1 T ? 1 (v?? ? v? ) ? 1 ? 1T (v?? ? v? ). ?r And we can deduce the following original bound (that also applies to Simplex-PI). Theorem 8 (Proof in Appendix H of the Supp. Material). If the MDP satisfies Assumptions 1-2, then Howard?s PI terminates after at most n(m ? 1) (??t log n?t ? + ??r log n?r ?) iterations, while Simplex-PI terminates after at most n(m ? 1) (?n?t log n?t ? + ??r log n?r ?) iterations. It should however be noted that Assumption 2 is rather restrictive. It implies that the algorithms converge on the recurrent states independently of the transient states, and thus the analysis can be decomposed in two phases: 1) the convergence on recurrent states and then 2) the convergence on transient states (given that recurrent states do not change anymore). The analysis of the first phase (convergence on recurrent states) is greatly facilitated by the fact that in this case, a new recurrent class appears every single iteration (this is in contrast with Lemmas 4, 6, 8 and 9 that were designed to show under which conditions cycles and recurrent classes are created). Furthermore, the analysis of the second phase (convergence on transient states) is similar to that of the discounted case of Theorems 3 and 4. In other words, if this last result sheds some light on the practical efficiency of Howard?s PI and Simplex-PI, a general analysis of Howard?s PI is still largely open, and constitutes our main future work. A Contraction property for Howard?s PI (Proof of Lemma 2) For any k, using the facts that {??, T? v? = v? }, {T?? v?k?1 ? T?k v?k?1 } and {Lemma 1 and P?k is positive definite}, we have v?? ? v?k = T?? v?? ? T?? v?k?1 + T?? v?k?1 ? T?k v?k?1 + T?k v?k?1 ? T?k v?k ? ?P?? (v?? ? v?k?1 ) + ?P?k (v?k?1 ? v?k ) ? ?P?? (v?? ? v?k?1 ). Since v?? ? v?k is non negative, we can take the max norm and get: ?v?? ? v?k ?? ? ??v?? ? v?k?1 ?? . B Contraction property for Simplex-PI (Proof of Lemma 3) By using the fact that {v? = T? v? ? v? = (I ? ?P? )?1 r? }, we have that for all pairs of policies ? and ? ? . v?? ? v? = (I ? ?P?? )?1 r?? ? v? = (I ? ?P?? )?1 (r?? + ?P?? v? ? v? ) = (I ? ?P?? )?1 (T?? v? ? v? ). (1) On the one hand, by using this lemma and the fact that {T?k+1 v?k ? v?k ? 0}, we have for any k: v?k+1 ? v?k = (I ? ?Pk+1 )?1 (T?k+1 v?k ? v?k ) ? T?k+1 v?k ? v?k , which implies that 1T (v?k+1 ? v?k ) ? 1T (T?k+1 v?k ? v?k ). (2) On the other hand, using Equation (1) and the facts that {?(I ? ?P?? )?1 ?? = 1 ?1 is positive definite}, {maxs T?k+1 v?k (s) = maxs,?? T?? v?k (s)} and 1?? and (I ? ?P?? ) 7 {?x ? 0, maxs x(s) ? 1T x}, we have: 1 max T?? v?k (s) ? v?k (s) 1?? s 1 1 ? max T?k+1 v?k (s) ? v?k (s) ? 1T (T?k+1 v?k ? v?k ), s 1?? 1?? which implies (using {?x, 1T x ? n?x?? }) that 1?? T 1T (T?k+1 v?k ? v?k ) ? (1 ? ?)?v?? ? v?k ?? ? 1 (v?? ? v?k ). n Combining Equations (2) and (3), we get: v?? ? v?k = (I ? ?P?? )?1 (T?? v?k ? v?k ) ? 1T (v?? ? v?k+1 ) = 1T (v?? ? v?k ) ? 1T (v?k+1 ? v?k ) ? 1T (v?? ? v?k ) ? C 1?? T 1 (v?? ? v?k ) = n 3 1? 1?? n 4 (3) 1T (v?? ? v?k ). A bound for Howard?s PI when ? < 1 (Proof of Theorem 3) For any k, by using Equation (1) and the fact {v? ? v?k ? 0 and P?k positive definite}, we have: v? ? T?k v? = (I ? ?P?k )(v? ? v?k ) ? v? ? v?k . Since v? ?T?k v? is non negative, we can take the max norm and, using Lemma 2, Equation (1) 1 and the fact that {?(I ? ?P?0 )?1 ?? = 1?? }, we get: ?v? ? T?k v? ?? ? ?v? ? v?k ?? ? ? k ?v?? ? v?0 ?? ?k ?v? ? T?0 v? ?? . (4) 1?? By definition of the max-norm, there exists a state s0 such that v? (s0 ) ? [T?0 v? ](s0 ) = ?v? ? T?0 v? ?? . From Equation (4), we deduce that for all k, = ? k ?(I ? ?P?0 )?1 (v? ? T?0 v? )?? ? v? (s0 ) ? [T?k v? ](s0 ) ? ?v? ? T?k v? ?? ? ?k ?k ?v? ? T?0 v? ?? = (v? (s0 ) ? [T?0 v? ](s0 )). 1?? 1?? ? As a consequence, the action ?k (s0 ) must be different from ?0 (s0 ) when 1?? < 1, that is for ? log 1 ? ? log 1 ? 1?? all values of k satisfying k ? k ? = > log1?? . In other words, if some policy ? 1 1?? k ? is not optimal, then one of its non-optimal actions will be eliminated for good after at most k ? iterations. By repeating this argument, one can eliminate all non-optimal actions (they are at most n(m ? 1)), and the result follows. D A bound for Simplex-PI when ? < 1 (Proof of Theorem 4) Using {?x ? 0, ?x?? ? 1T x}, Lemma 3, {?x, 1T x ? n?x?? }, Equation (1) and {?(I ? 1 ?P?0 )?1 ?? = 1?? }, we have for all k, ?v?? ? T?k v?? ?? ? ?v?? ? v?k ?? ? 1T (v?? ? v?k ) 3 4k 3 4k 1?? 1?? ? 1? 1T (v?? ? v?0 ) ? n 1 ? ?v?? ? v?0 ?? n n 3 4k 3 4k 1?? n 1?? ?1 =n 1? ?(I ? ?P?0 ) (v? ? T?0 v? )?? ? 1? ?v?? ? T?0 v?? ?? n 1?? n Similarly to the proof for Howard?s PI, we deduce that a non-optimal action is eliminated ? ? 9 log n : n n after at most k ? = 1?? log 1?? ? log 1?1?? , and the overall number of iterations is ( 1?? n ) obtained by noting that there are at most n(m ? 1) non optimal actions to eliminate. 8 References [1] D.P. Bertsekas and J.N. Tsitsiklis. Neurodynamic Programming. Athena Scientific, 1996. [2] J. Fearnley. Exponential lower bounds for policy iteration. In Proceedings of the 37th international colloquium conference on Automata, languages and programming: Part II, ICALP?10, pages 551?562, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2010. Springer-Verlag. [3] T.D. Hansen, P.B. Miltersen, and U. Zwick. Strategy iteration is strongly polynomial for 2-player turn-based stochastic games with a constant discount factor. J. ACM, 60(1):1:1?1:16, February 2013. [4] T.D. Hansen and U. Zwick. Lower bounds for howard?s algorithm for finding minimum mean-cost cycles. In ISAAC (1), pages 415?426, 2010. [5] R. Hollanders, J.C. Delvenne, and R. Jungers. The complexity of policy iteration is exponential for discounted markov decision processes. In 51st IEEE conference on Decision and control (CDC?12), 2012. [6] Y. Mansour and S.P. Singh. On the complexity of policy iteration. In UAI, pages 401?408, 1999. [7] M. Melekopoglou and A. Condon. On the complexity of the policy improvement algorithm for markov decision processes. INFORMS Journal on Computing, 6(2):188?192, 1994. [8] I. Post and Y. Ye. The simplex method is strongly polynomial for deterministic markov decision processes. Technical report, arXiv:1208.5083v2, 2012. [9] M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes. Wiley, New York, 1994. [10] N. Schmitz. How good is howard?s policy improvement algorithm? Operations Research, 29(7):315?316, 1985. Zeitschrift f? ur [11] Y. Ye. The simplex and policy-iteration methods are strongly polynomial for the markov decision problem with a fixed discount rate. Math. Oper. Res., 36(4):593?603, 2011. 9
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Efficient Exploration and Value Function Generalization in Deterministic Systems Zheng Wen Stanford University [email protected] Benjamin Van Roy Stanford University [email protected] Abstract We consider the problem of reinforcement learning over episodes of a finitehorizon deterministic system and as a solution propose optimistic constraint propagation (OCP), an algorithm designed to synthesize efficient exploration and value function generalization. We establish that when the true value function Q? lies within the hypothesis class Q, OCP selects optimal actions over all but at most dimE [Q] episodes, where dimE denotes the eluder dimension. We establish further efficiency and asymptotic performance guarantees that apply even if Q? does not lie in Q, for the special case where Q is the span of pre-specified indicator functions over disjoint sets. 1 Introduction A growing body of work on efficient reinforcement learning provides algorithms with guarantees on sample and computational efficiency [13, 6, 2, 22, 4, 9]. This literature highlights the point that an effective exploration scheme is critical to the design of any efficient reinforcement learning algorithm. In particular, popular exploration schemes such as ?-greedy, Boltzmann, and knowledge gradient can require learning times that grow exponentially in the number of states and/or the planning horizon. The aforementioned literature focuses on tabula rasa learning; that is, algorithms aim to learn with little or no prior knowledge about transition probabilities and rewards. Such algorithms require learning times that grow at least linearly with the number of states. Despite the valuable insights that have been generated through their design and analysis, these algorithms are of limited practical import because state spaces in most contexts of practical interest are enormous. There is a need for algorithms that generalize from past experience in order to learn how to make effective decisions in reasonable time. There has been much work on reinforcement learning algorithms that generalize (see, e.g., [5, 23, 24, 18] and references therein). Most of these algorithms do not come with statistical or computational efficiency guarantees, though there are a few noteworthy exceptions, which we now discuss. A number of results treat policy-based algorithms (see [10, 3] and references therein), in which the goal is to select high-performers among a pre-specified collection of policies as learning progresses. Though interesting results have been produced in this line of work, each entails quite restrictive assumptions or does not make strong guarantees. Another body of work focuses on model-based algorithms. An algorithm is proposed in [12] that fits a factored model to observed data and makes decisions based on the fitted model. The authors establish a sample complexity bound that is polynomial in the number of model parameters rather than the number of states, but the algorithm is computationally intractable because of the difficulty of solving factored MDPs. A recent paper [14] proposes a novel algorithm for the case where the true environment is known to belong to a finite or compact class of models, and shows that its sample complexity is polynomial in the cardinality of the model class if the model class is finite, or the ?-covering-number if the 1 model class is compact. Though this result is theoretically interesting, for most model classes of interest, the ?-covering-number is enormous since it typically grows exponentially in the number of free parameters. Another recent paper [17] establishes a regret bound for an algorithm that applies to problems with continuous state spaces and H?older-continuous rewards and transition kernels. Though the results represent an interesting contribution to the literature, a couple features of the regret bound weaken its practical implications. First, regret grows linearly with the H?older constant of the transition kernel, which for most contexts of practical relevance grows exponentially in the number of state variables. Second, the dependence on time becomes arbitrarily close to linear as the dimension of the state space grows. Reinforcement learning in linear systems with quadratic cost is treated in [1]. The method proposed is shown to realize regret that grows with the square root of time. The result is interesting and the property is desirable, but to the best of our knowledge, expressions derived for regret in the analysis exhibit an exponential dependence on the number of state variables, and further, we are not aware of a computationally efficient way of implementing the proposed method. This work was extended by [8] to address linear systems with sparse structure. Here, there are efficiency guarantees that scale gracefully with the number of state variables, but only under sparsity and other technical assumptions. The most popular approach to generalization in the applied reinforcement learning literature involves fitting parameterized value functions. Such approaches relate closely to supervised learning in that they learn functions from state to value, though a difference is that value is influenced by action and observed only through delayed feedback. One advantage over model learning approaches is that, given a fitted value function, decisions can be made without solving a potentially intractable control problem. We see this as a promising direction, though there currently is a lack of theoretical results that provide attractive bounds on learning time with value function generalization. A relevant paper along this research line is [15], which studies the efficient reinforcement learning with value function generalization in the KWIK framework (see [16]), and reduces the efficient reinforcement learning problem to the efficient KWIK online regression problem. However, the authors do not show how to solve the general KWIK online regression problem efficiently, and it is not even clear whether this is possible. Thus, though the result of [15] is interesting, it does not provide a provably efficient algorithm. An important challenge that remains is to couple exploration and value function generalization in a provably effective way, and in particular, to establish sample and computational efficiency guarantees that scale gracefully with the planning horizon and model complexity. In this paper, we aim to make progress in this direction. To start with a simple context, we restrict our attention to deterministic systems that evolve over finite time horizons, and we consider episodic learning, in which an agent repeatedly interacts with the same system. As a solution to the problem, we propose optimistic constraint propagation (OCP), a computationally efficient reinforcement learning algorithm designed to synthesize efficient exploration and value function generalization. We establish that when the true value function Q? lies within the hypothesis class Q, OCP selects optimal actions over all but at most dimE [Q] episodes. Here, dimE denotes the eluder dimension, which quantifies complexity of the hypothesis class. A corollary of this result is that regret is bounded by a function that is constant over time and linear in the problem horizon and eluder dimension. To put our aforementioned result in perspective, it is useful to relate it to other lines of work. Consider first the broad area of reinforcement learning algorithms that fit value functions, such as SARSA [19]. Even with the most commonly used sort of hypothesis class Q, which is made up of linear combinations of fixed basis functions, and even when the hypothesis class contains the true value function Q? , there are no guarantees that these algorithms will efficiently learn to make near-optimal decisions. On the other hand, our result implies that OCP attains near-optimal performance in time that scales linearly with the number of basis functions. Now consider the more specialized context of a deterministic linear system with quadratic cost and a finite time horizon. The analysis of [1] can be leveraged to produce regret bounds that scale exponentially in the number of state variables. On the other hand, using a hypothesis space Q consisting of quadratic functions of state-action pairs, the results of this paper show that OCP behaves near optimally within time that scales quadratically in the number of state and action variables. We also establish efficiency and asymptotic performance guarantees that apply to agnostic reinforcement learning, where Q? does not necessarily lie in Q. In particular, we consider the case where Q is the span of pre-specified indicator functions over disjoint sets. Our results here add to the literature on agnostic reinforcement learning with such a hypothesis class [21, 25, 7, 26]. Prior work in 2 this area has produced interesting algorithms and insights, as well as bounds on performance loss associated with potential limits of convergence, but no convergence or efficiency guarantees. 2 Reinforcement Learning in Deterministic Systems In this paper, we consider an episodic reinforcement learning (RL) problem in which an agent repeatedly interacts with a discrete-time finite-horizon deterministic system, and refer to each interaction as an episode. The system is identified by a sextuple M = (S, A, H, F, R, S), where S is the state space, A is the action space, H is the horizon, F is a system function, R is a reward function and S is a sequence of states. If action a 2 A is selected while the system is in state x 2 S at period t = 0, 1, ? ? ? , H 1, a reward of Rt (x, a) is realized; furthermore, if t < H 1, the state transitions to Ft (x, a). Each episode terminates at period H 1, and then a new episode begins. The initial state of episode j is the jth element of S. To represent the history of actions and observations over multiple episodes, we will often index variables by both episode and period. For example, xj,t and aj,t denote the state and action at period t of episode j, where j = 0, 1, ? ? ? and t = 0, 1, ? ? ? , H 1. To count the total number of steps since the agent started learning, we say period t in episode j is time jH + t. A (deterministic) policy ? = (?0 , . . . , ?H 1 ) is a sequence of functions, each mapping S to A. PH 1 For each policy ?, define a value function Vt? (x) = ? =t R? (x? , a? ), where xt = x, x? +1 = F? (x? , a? ), and a? = ?? (x? ). The optimal value function is defined by Vt? (x) = sup? Vt? (x). A ? policy ?? is said to be optimal if V ? = V ? . Throughout this paper, we will restrict attention to systems M = (S, A, H, F, R, S) that admit optimal policies. Note that this restriction incurs no loss of generality when the action space is finite. It is also useful to define an action-contingent optimal value function: Q?t (x, a) = Rt (x, a) + ? Vt+1 (Ft (x, a)) for t < H 1, and Q?H 1 (x, a) = RH 1 (x, a). Then, a policy ?? is optimal if ? ?t (x) 2 arg maxa2A Q?t (x, a) for all (x, t). A reinforcement learning algorithm generates each action aj,t based on observations made up to the tth period of the jth episode, including all states, actions, and rewards observed in previous episodes and earlier in the current episode, as well as the state space S, action space A, horizon H, and possiPH 1 ble prior information. In each episode, the algorithm realizes reward R(j) = t=0 Rt (xj,t , aj,t ). Note that R(j) ? V0? (xj,0 ) for each jth episode. One way to quantify performance of a reinforcement learning algorithm is in terms of the number of episodes JL for which R(j) < V0? (xj,0 ) ?, where ? 0 is a pre-specified performance loss threshold. If the reward function R is bounded, with |Rt (x, a)| ? R for all (x, a, t), then this also implies a bound on regret over episodes exPbT /Hc 1 ? perienced prior to time T , defined by Regret(T ) = (V0 (xj,0 ) R(j) ). In particular, j=0 Regret(T ) ? 2RHJL + ?bT /Hc. 3 Optimistic Constraint Propagation At a high level, our reinforcement learning algorithm ? optimistic constraint propagation (OCP) ? selects actions based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty principle and based on observed rewards and state transitions propagates constraints backwards through time. Specifically, it takes as input the state space S, the action space A, the horizon H, and a hypothesis class Q of candidates for Q? . The algorithm maintains a sequence of subsets of Q and a sequence of scalar ?upper bounds?, which summarize constraints that past experience suggests for ruling out hypotheses. Each constraint in this sequence is specified by a state x 2 S, an action a 2 A, a period t = 0, . . . , H 1, and an interval [L, U ] ? <, and takes the form {Q 2 Q : L ? Qt (x, a) ? U }. The upper bound of the constraint is U . Given a sequence C = (C1 , . . . , C|C| ) of such constraints and upper bounds U = (U1 , . . . , U|C| ), a set QC is defined constructively by Algorithm 1. Note that if the constraints do not conflict then QC = C1 \ ? ? ? \ C|C| . When constraints do conflict, priority is assigned first based on upper bound, with smaller upper bound preferred, and then, in the event of ties in upper bound, based on position in the sequence, with more recent experience preferred. 3 Algorithm 1 Constraint Selection Require: Q, C QC Q, u min U while u ? 1 do for ? = |C| to 1 do if U? = u and QC \ C? 6= ? then QC QC \ C ? end if end for if {u0 2 U : u0 > u} = ? then return QC end if u min{u0 2 U : u0 > u} end while OCP, presented below as Algorithm 2, at each time t computes for the current state xj,t and each action a the greatest state-action value Qt (xj,t , a) among functions in QC and selects an action that attains the maximum. In other words, an action is chosen based on the most optimistic feasible outcome subject to constraints. The subsequent reward and state transition give rise to a new constraint that is used to update C. Note that the update of C is postponed until one episode is completed. Algorithm 2 Optimistic Constraint Propagation Require: S, A, H, Q Initialize C ? for episode j = 0, 1, ? ? ? do Set C 0 C for period t = 0, 1, ? ? ? , H 1 do Apply aj,t 2 arg maxa2A supQ2QC Qt (xj,t , a) if t < H 1 then Uj,t supQ2QC (Rt (xj,t , aj,t ) + supa2A Qt+1 (xj,t+1 , a)) Lj,t inf Q2QC (Rt (xj,t , aj,t ) + supa2A Qt+1 (xj,t+1 , a)) else Uj,t Rt (xj,t , aj,t ) Lj,t Rt (xj,t , aj,t ) end if C0 C 0 _ {Q 2 Q : Lj,t ? Qt (xj,t , aj,t ) ? Uj,t } end for Update C C0 end for Note that if Q? 2 Q then each constraint appended to C does not rule out Q? , and therefore, the sequence of sets QC generated as the algorithm progresses is decreasing and contains Q? in its intersection. In the agnostic case, where Q? may not lie in Q, new constraints can be inconsistent with previous constraints, in which case selected previous constraints are relaxed as determined by Algorithm 1. Let us briefly discuss several contexts of practical relevance and/or theoretical interest in which OCP can be applied. ? Finite state/action tabula rasa case. With finite state and action spaces, Q? can be represented as a vector, and without special prior knowledge, it is natural to let Q = <|S|?|A|?H . ? Polytopic prior constraints. Consider the aforementioned example, but suppose that we have prior knowledge that Q? lies in a particular polytope. Then we can let Q be that polytope and again apply OCP. ? Linear systems with quadratic cost (LQ). In this classical control model, if S = <n , A = <m , and R is a positive semidefinite quadratic, then for each t, Q?t is known to be a 4 positive semidefinite quadratic, and it is natural to let Q = QH 0 with Q0 denoting the set of positive semidefinite quadratics. ? Finite hypothesis class. Consider a context when we have prior knowledge that Q? can be well approximated by some element in a finite hypothesis class. Then we can let Q be that finite hypothesis class and apply OCP. This scenario is of particular interest from the perspective of learning theory. Note that this context entails agnostic learning, which is accommodated by OCP. ? Linear combination of features. It is often effective to hand-select a set of features 1 , . . . , K , each mapping S ? A to <, and, then for each t, aiming to compute weights P (t) ?(t) 2 <K so that k ?k k approximates Q?t without knowing for sure that Q?t lies in the span of the features. To apply OCP here, we would let Q = QH 0 with Q0 = span( 1 , . . . , K ). Note that this context also entails agnostic learning. ? Sigmoid. If it is known that rewards are only received upon transitioning to the terminal state and take values between 0 and 1, it might be appropriate to use a variation of the aforementioned feature based model that applies a sigmoidal function P to the linear combination. In particular, we could have Q = QH ( k ?k k (?)) : ? 2 <K , 0 with Q0 = where (z) = ez /(1 + ez ). It is worth mentioning that OCP, as we have defined it, assumes that an action a maximizing supQ2QC Qt (xj,t , a) exists in each iteration. It is not difficult to modify the algorithm so that it addresses cases where this is not true. But we have not presented the more general form of OCP in order to avoid complicating this short paper. 4 Sample Efficiency of Optimistic Constraint Propagation We now establish results concerning the sample efficiency of OCP. Our results bound the time it takes OCP to learn, and this must depend on the complexity of the hypothesis class. As such, we begin by defining the eluder dimension, as introduced in [20], which is the notion of complexity we will use. 4.1 Eluder Dimension Let Z = {(x, a, t) : x 2 S, a 2 A, t = 0, . . . , H 1} be the set of all state-action-period triples, and let Q denote a nonempty set of functions mapping Z to <. For all (x, a, t) 2 Z and Z? ? Z, ? 2 Q that are (x, a, t) is said to be dependent on Z? with respect to Q if any pair of functions Q, Q equal on Z? are equal at (x, a, t). Further, (x, a, t) is said to be independent of Z? with respect to Q if (x, a, t) is not dependent on Z? with respect to Q. The eluder dimension dimE [Q] of Q is the length of the longest sequence of elements in Z such that every element is independent of its predecessors. Note that dimE [Q] can be zero or infinity, and it is straightforward to show that if Q1 ? Q2 then dimE [Q1 ] ? dimE [Q2 ]. Based on results of [20], we can characterize the eluder dimensions of various hypothesis classes presented in the previous section. ? Finite state/action tabula rasa case. If Q = <|S|?|A|?H , then dimE [Q] = |S| ? |A| ? H. ? Polytopic prior constraints. If Q is a polytope of dimension d in <|S|?|A|?H , then dimE [Q] = d. ? Linear systems with quadratic cost (LQ). If Q0 is the set of positive semidefinite quadratics with domain <m+n and Q = QH 0 , then dimE [Q] = (m + n + 1)(m + n)H/2. ? Finite hypothesis space. If |Q| < 1, then dimE [Q] ? |Q| 1. ? Linear combination of features. If Q = with Q0 = span( 1 , . . . , K ), then dimE [Q] ? KH. P ? Sigmoid. If Q = QH ( k ?k k (?)) : ? 2 <K , then dimE [Q] ? KH. 0 with Q0 = QH 0 5 4.2 Learning with a Coherent Hypothesis Class We now present results that apply when OCP is presented with a coherent hypothesis class; that is, where Q? 2 Q. Our first result establishes that OCP can deliver less than optimal performance in no more than dimE [Q] episodes. Theorem 1 For any system M = (S, A, H, F, R, S), if OCP is applied with Q? 2 Q, then |{j : R(j) < V0? (xj,0 )}| ? dimE [Q]. This theorem follows from an ?exploration-exploitation lemma?, which asserts that in each episode, OCP either delivers optimal reward (exploitation) or introduces a constraint that reduces the eluder dimension of the hypothesis class by one (exploration). Consequently, OCP will experience suboptimal performance in at most dimE [Q] episodes. A complete proof is provided in the appendix. An immediate corollary bounds regret. Corollary 1 For any R, any system M = (S, A, H, F, R, S) with sup(x,a,t) |Rt (x, a)| ? R, and any T , if OCP is applied with Q? 2 Q, then Regret(T ) ? 2RHdimE [Q]. Note the regret bound in Corollary 1 does not depend on time T , thus, it is an O (1) bound. Furthermore, this regret bound is linear in R, H and dimE [Q], and does not directly depend on |S| or |A|. The following results demonstrate that the bounds of the above theorem and corollary are sharp. Theorem 2 For any reinforcement learning algorithm that takes as input a state space, an action space, a horizon, and a hypothesis class, there exists a system M = (S, A, H, F, R, S) and a hypothesis class Q 3 Q? such that |{j : R(j) < V0? (xj,0 )}| dimE [Q]. Theorem 3 For any R 0 and any reinforcement learning algorithm that takes as input a state space, an action space, a horizon, and a hypothesis class, there exists a system M = (S, A, H, F, R, S) with sup(x,a,t) |Rt (x, a)| ? R and a hypothesis class Q 3 Q? such that supT Regret(T ) 2RHdimE [Q]. A constructive proof of these lower bounds is provided in the appendix. Following our discussion in previous sections, we discuss several interesting contexts in which the agent knows a coherent hypothesis class Q with finite eluder dimension. ? Finite state/action tabula rasa case. If we apply OCP in this case, then it will deliver suboptimal performance in at most |S|?|A|?H episodes. Furthermore, if sup(x,a,t) |Rt (x, a)| ? R, then for any T , Regret(T ) ? 2R|S||A|H 2 . ? Polytopic prior constraints. If we apply OCP in this case, then it will deliver sub-optimal performance in at most d episodes. Furthermore, if sup(x,a,t) |Rt (x, a)| ? R, then for any T , Regret(T ) ? 2RHd. ? Linear systems with quadratic cost (LQ). If we apply OCP in this case, then it will deliver sub-optimal performance in at most (m + n + 1)(m + n)H/2 episodes. ? Finite hypothesis class case. Assume that the agent has prior knowledge that Q? 2 Q, where Q is a finite hypothesis class. If we apply OCP in this case, then it will deliver suboptimal performance in at most |Q| 1 episodes. Furthermore, if sup(x,a,t) |Rt (x, a)| ? R, then for any T , Regret(T ) ? 2RH [|Q| 1]. 4.3 Agnostic Learning As we have discussed in Section 3, OCP can also be applied in agnostic learning cases, where Q? may not lie in Q. For such cases, the performance of OCP should depend on not only the complexity of Q, but also the distance between Q and Q? . We now present results when OCP is applied in a special agnostic learning case, where Q is the span of pre-specified indicator functions over disjoint subsets. We henceforth refer to this case as the state aggregation case. 6 Specifically, we assume that for any t = 0, 1, ? ? ? , H 1, the state-action space at period t, Zt = {(x, a, t) : x 2 S, a 2 A}, can be partitioned into Kt disjoint subsets Zt,1 , Zt,2 , ? ? ? , Zt,Kt , and use t,k to denote the indicator function for partition Zt,k (i.e. t,k (x, a, t) = 1 if (x, a, t) 2 Zt,k , PH 1 and t,k (x, a, t) = 0 otherwise). We define K = t=0 Kt , and Q as Q = span 0,1 , 0,2 , ? ? ? , 0,K0 , 1,1 , ? ? ? , H 1,KH 1 . Note that dimE [Q] = K. We define the distance between Q and the hypothesis class Q as ? = min kQ Q2Q (4.1) ? Q? k1 = min sup |Qt (x, a) Q2Q (x,a,t) Q?t (x, a)|. (4.2) The following result establishes that with Q and ? defined above, the performance loss of OCP is larger than 2?H(H + 1) in at most K episodes. Theorem 4 For any system M = (S, A, H, F, R, S), if OCP is applied with Q defined in Eqn(4.1), then |{j : R(j) < V0? (xj,0 ) 2?H(H + 1)}| ? K, where K is the number of partitions and ? is defined in Eqn(4.2). Similar to Theorem 1, this theorem also follows from an ?exploration-exploitation lemma?, which asserts that in each episode, OCP either delivers near-optimal reward (exploitation), or approximately determines Q?t (x, a)?s for all the (x, a, t)?s in a disjoint subset (exploration). A complete proof for Theorem 4 is provided in the appendix. An immediate corollary bounds regret. Corollary 2 For any R 0, any system M = (S, A, H, F, R, S) with sup(x,a,t) |Rt (x, a)| ? R, and any time T , if OCP is applied with Q defined in Eqn(4.1), then Regret(T ) ? 2RKH + 2?(H + 1)T , where K is the number of partitions and ? is defined in Eqn(4.2). Note that the regret bound in Corollary 2 is O (T ), and the coefficient of the linear term is 2?(H +1). Consequently, if Q? is close to Q, then the regret will increase slowly with T . Furthermore, the regret bound in Corollary 2 does not directly depend on |S| or |A|. We further notice that the threshold performance loss in Theorem 4 is O ?H 2 . The following proposition provides a condition under which the performance loss in one episode is O (?H). Proposition 1 For any episode j, if 8t = 0, 1, ? ? ? , H then we have V0? (xj,0 ) 1, QC ? {Q 2 Q : Lj,t ? Qt (xj,t , aj,t ) ? Uj,t } , R(j) ? 6?H = O (?H). That is, if all the new constraints in an episode are redundant, then the performance loss in that episode is O (?H). Note that if the condition for Proposition 1 holds in an episode, then QC will not be modified at the end of that episode. Furthermore, if the system has a fixed initial state and the condition for Proposition 1 holds in one episode, then it will hold in all the subsequent episodes, and consequently, the performance losses in all the subsequent episodes are O (?H). 5 Computational Efficiency of Optimistic Constraint Propagation We now briefly discuss the computational complexity of OCP. As typical in the complexity analysis of optimization algorithms, we assume that basic operations include the arithmetic operations, comparisons, and assignment, and measure computational complexity in terms of the number of basic operations (henceforth referred to as operations) per period. First, it is worth pointing out that for a general hypothesis class Q and general action space A, the per period computations of OCP can intractable. This is because: ? Computing supQ2QC Qt (xj,t , a), Uj,t and Lj,t requires solving a possibly intractable optimization problems. 7 ? Selecting an action that maximizes supQ2QC Qt (xj,t , a) can be intractable. Further, the number of constraints in C, and with it the number of operations per period, can grow over time. However, if |A| is tractably small and Q has some special structures (e.g. Q is a finite set or a linear subspace or, more generally a polytope), then by discarding some ?redundant? constraints in C, OCP with a variant of Algorithm 1 will be computationally efficient, and the sample efficiency results developed in Section 4 will still hold. Due to space limitations, we only discuss the scenario where Q is a polytope of dimension d. Note that the finite state/action tabula rasa case, the linearquadratic case, and the case with linear combinations of disjoint indicator functions are all special cases of this scenario. Specifically, if Q is a polytope of dimension d (i.e., within a d-dimensional subspace), then any Q 2 Q can be represented by a weight vector ? 2 <d , and Q can be characterized by a set of linear inequalities of ?. Furthermore, the new constraints of the form Lj,t ? Qt (xj,t , aj,t ) ? Uj,t are also linear inequalities of ?. Hence, in each episode, QC is characterized by a polyhedron in <d , and supQ2QC Qt (xj,t , a), Uj,t and Lj,t can be computed by solving linear programming (LP) problems. If we assume that all the encountered numerical values can be represented with B bits, and LPs are solved by Karmarkar?s algorithm [11], then the following proposition bounds the computational complexity. Proposition 2 If Q is a polytope of dimension d, each numerical value in the problem data or observed in the course of learning can be represented with B bits, and OCP uses Karmarkar?s algorithm to solve linear programs, then the computational complexity of OCP is O [|A| + |C|] |C|d4.5 B operations per period. The proof of Proposition 2 is provided in the appendix. Notice that the computational complexity is polynomial in d, B, |C| and |A|, and thus, OCP will be computationally efficient if all these parameters are tractably small. Note that the bound in Proposition 2 is a worst-case bound, and the O(d4.5 ) term is incurred by the need to solve LPs. For some special cases, the computational complexity is much less. For instance, in the state aggregation case, the computational complexity is O (|C| + |A| + d) operations per period. As we have discussed above, one can ensure that |C| remains bounded by using variants of Algorithm 1 that discard the redundant constraints and/or update QC more efficiently. Specifically, it is straightforward to design such constraint selection algorithms if Q is a coherent hypothesis class, or if Q is the span of pre-specified indicator functions over disjoint sets. Furthermore, if the notion of redundant constraints is properly defined, the sample efficiency results derived in Section 4 will still hold. 6 Conclusion We have proposed a novel reinforcement learning algorithm, called optimistic constraint propagation (OCP), that synthesizes efficient exploration and value function generalization for reinforcement learning in deterministic systems. We have shown that OCP is sample efficient if Q? lies in the given hypothesis class, or if the given hypothesis class is the span of pre-specified indicator functions over disjoint sets. It is worth pointing out that for more general reinforcement learning problems, how to design provably sample efficient algorithms with value function generalization is currently still open. For instance, it is not clear how to establish such algorithms for the general agnostic learning case discussed in this paper, as well as for reinforcement learning in MDPs. One interesting direction for future research is to extend OCP, or a variant of it, to these two problems. References [1] Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori and Csaba Szepesv?ari. Regret bounds for the adaptive control of linear quadratic systems. Journal of Machine Learning Research - Proceedings Track, 19:1?26, 2011. 8 [2] Peter Auer and Ronald Ortner. Logarithmic online regret bounds for undiscounted reinforcement learning. In NIPS, pages 49?56, 2006. [3] Mohammad Gheshlaghi Azar, Alessandro Lazaric, and Emma Brunskill. Regret bounds for reinforcement learning with policy advice. CoRR, abs/1305.1027, 2013. [4] Peter L. 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Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010. [25] John N. Tsitsiklis and Benjamin Van Roy. Feature-based methods for large scale dynamic programming. Machine Learning, 22(1-3):59?94, 1996. [26] Benjamin Van Roy. Performance loss bounds for approximate value iteration with state aggregation. Math. Oper. Res., 31(2):234?244, 2006. 9
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Aggregating Optimistic Planning Trees for Solving Markov Decision Processes Gunnar Kedenburg INRIA Lille - Nord Europe / idalab GmbH [email protected] Rapha?l Fonteneau University of Li?ge / INRIA Lille - Nord Europe [email protected] R?mi Munos INRIA Lille - Nord Europe / Microsoft Research New England [email protected] Abstract This paper addresses the problem of online planning in Markov decision processes using a randomized simulator, under a budget constraint. We propose a new algorithm which is based on the construction of a forest of planning trees, where each tree corresponds to a random realization of the stochastic environment. The trees are constructed using a ?safe? optimistic planning strategy combining the optimistic principle (in order to explore the most promising part of the search space first) with a safety principle (which guarantees a certain amount of uniform exploration). In the decision-making step of the algorithm, the individual trees are aggregated and an immediate action is recommended. We provide a finite-sample analysis and discuss the trade-off between the principles of optimism and safety. We also report numerical results on a benchmark problem. Our algorithm performs as well as state-of-the-art optimistic planning algorithms, and better than a related algorithm which additionally assumes the knowledge of all transition distributions. 1 Introduction Adaptive decision making algorithms have been used increasingly in the past years, and have attracted researchers from many application areas, like artificial intelligence [16], financial engineering [10], medicine [14] and robotics [15]. These algorithms realize an adaptive control strategy through interaction with their environment, so as to maximize an a priori performance criterion. A new generation of algorithms based on look-ahead tree search techniques have brought a breakthrough in practical performance on planning problems with large state spaces. Techniques based on planning trees such as Monte Carlo tree search [4, 13], and in particular the UCT algorithm (UCB applied to Trees, see [12]) have allowed to tackle large scale problems such as the game of Go [7]. These methods exploit that in order to decide on an action at a given state, it is not necessary to build an estimate of the value function everywhere. Instead, they search locally in the space of policies, around the current state. We propose a new algorithm for planning in Markov Decision Problems (MDPs). We assume that a limited budget of calls to a randomized simulator for the MDP (the generative model in [11]) is available for exploring the consequences of actions before making a decision. The intuition behind our algorithm is to achieve a high exploration depth in the look-ahead trees by planning in fixed realizations of the MDP, and to achieve the necessary exploration width by aggregating a forest of planning trees (forming an approximation of the MDP from many realizations). Each of the trees is developed around the state for which a decision has to be made, according to the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty [13] combined with a safety principle. 1 We provide a finite-sample analysis depending on the budget, split into the number of trees and the number of node expansions in each tree. We show that our algorithm is consistent and that it identifies the optimal action when given a sufficiently large budget. We also give numerical results which demonstrate good performance on a benchmark problem. In particular, we show that our algorithm achieves much better performance on this problem than OP-MDP [2] when both algorithms generate the same number of successor states, despite the fact that OP-MDP assumes knowledge of all successor state probabilities in the MDP, whereas our algorithm only samples states from a simulator. The paper is organized as follows: first, we discuss some related work in section 2. In section 3, the problem addressed in this paper is formalized, before we describe our algorithm in section 4. Its finite-sample analysis is given in section 5. We provide numerical results on the inverted pendulum benchmark in section 6. In section 7, we discuss and conclude this work. 2 Related work The optimism in the face of uncertainty paradigm has already lead to several successful results for solving decision making problems. Specifically, it has been applied in the following contexts: multi-armed bandit problems [1] (which can be seen as single state MDPs), planning algorithms for deterministic systems and stochastic systems [8, 9, 17], and global optimization of stochastic functions that are only accessible through sampling. See [13] for a detailed review of the optimistic principle applied to planning and optimization. The algorithm presented in this paper is particularly closely related to two recently developed online planning algorithms for solving MDPs, namely the OPD algorithm [9] for MDPs with deterministic transitions, and the OP-MDP algorithm [2] which addresses stochastic MDPs where all transition probabilities are known. A Bayesian adaptation of OP-MDP has also been proposed [6] for planning in the context where the MDP is unknown. Our contribution is also related to [5], where random ensembles of state-action independent disturbance scenarios are built, the planning problem is solved for each scenario, and a decision is made based on majority voting. Finally, since our algorithm proceeds by sequentially applying the first decision of a longer plan over a receding horizon, it can also be seen as a Model Predictive Control [3] technique. 3 Formalization Let (S, A, p, r, ?) be a Markov decision process (MDP), where the set S and A respectively denote the state space and the finite action space, with |A| > 1, of the MDP. When an action a ? A is selected in state s ? S of the MDP, it transitions to a successor state s0 ? S(s, a) with probability p(s0 |s, a). We further assume that every successor state set S(s, a) is finite and their cardinality is bounded by K ? N. Associated with the transition is an deterministic instantaneous reward r(s, a, s0 ) ? [0, 1]. While the transition probabilities may be unknown, it is assumed that a randomized simulator is available, which, given a state-action pair (s, a), outputs a successor state s0 ? p(?|s, a). The ability to sample is a weaker assumption than the knowledge of all transition probabilities. In this paper we consider the problem of planning under a budget constraint: only a limited number of samples may be drawn using the simulator. Afterwards, a single decision has to be made. Let ? : S ? A denote a deterministic policy. Define the value function of the policy ? in a state s as the discounted sum of expected rewards: "? # X ? ? t v : S ? R, v : s 7? E ? r(st , ?(st ), st+1 ) s0 = s , (1) t=0 where the constant ? ? (0, 1) is called the discount factor. Let ? ? be an optimal policy (i.e. a policy ? that maximizes v ? in all states). It is well known that the optimal value function v ? := v ? is the 2 solution to the Bellman equation ?s ? S : v ? (s) = max a?A X p(s0 |s, a) (r(s, a, s0 ) + ?v ? (s0 )) . s0 ?S(s,a) P 0 0 ? 0 Given the action-value function Q? : (s, a) 7? s0 ?S(s,a) p(s |s, a)(r(s, a, s ) + ?v (s )), an ? ? optimal policy can be derived as ? : s 7? argmaxa?A Q (s, a). 4 Algorithm We name our algorithm ASOP (for ?Aggregated Safe Optimistic Planning?). The main idea behind it is to use a simulator to obtain a series of deterministic ?realizations? of the stochastic MDP, to plan in each of them individually, and to then aggregate all the information gathered in the deterministic MDPs into an empirical approximation to the original MDP, on the basis of which a decision is made. We refer to the planning trees used here as single successor state trees (S3-trees), in order to distinguish them from other planning trees used for the same problem (e.g. the OP-MDP tree, where all possible successor states are considered). Every node of a S3-tree represents a state s ? S, and has at most one child node per state-action a, representing a successor state s0 ? S. The successor state is drawn using the simulator during the construction of the S3-tree. The planning tree construction, using the SOP algorithm (for ?Safe Optimistic Planning?), is described in section 4.1. The ASOP algorithm, which integrates building the forest and deciding on an action by aggregating the information in the forest, is described in section 4.2. 4.1 Safe optimistic planning in S3-trees: the SOP algorithm SOP is an algorithm for sequentially constructing a S3-tree. It can be seen as a variant of the OPD algorithm [9] for planning in deterministic MDPs. SOP expands up to two leaves of the planning tree per iteration. The first leaf (the optimistic one) is a maximizer of an upper bound (called b-value) on the value function of the (deterministic) realization of the MDP explored in the S3-tree. The b-value of a node x is defined as d(x)?1 X ? d(x) b(x) := ? i ri + (2) 1?? i=0 where (ri ) is the sequence of rewards obtained along the path to x, and d(x) is the depth of the node (the length of the path from the root to x). Only expanding the optimistic leaf would not be enough to make ASOP consistent; this is shown in the appendix. Therefore, a second leaf (the safe one), defined as the shallowest leaf in the current tree, is also expanded in each iteration. A pseudo-code is given as algorithm 1. Algorithm 1: SOP Data: The initial state s0 ? S and a budget n ? N Result: A planning tree T Let T denote a tree consisting only of a leaf, representing s0 . Initialize the cost counter c := 0. while c < n do Form a subset of leaves of T , L, containing a leaf of minimal depth, and a leaf of maximal b-value (computed according to (2); the two leaves can be identical). foreach l ? L do Let s denote the state represented by l. foreach a ? A do if c < n then Use the simulator to draw a successor state s0 ? p(?|s, a). Create an edge in T from l to a new leaf representing s0 . Let c := c + 1. return T 3 4.2 Aggregation of S3-trees: the ASOP algorithm ASOP consists of three steps. In the first step, it runs independent instances of SOP to collect information about the MDP, in the form of a forest of S3-trees. It then computes action-values ? ? (s0 , a) of a single ?empirical? MDP based on the collected information, in which states are Q represented by forests: on a transition, the forest is partitioned into groups by successor states, and the corresponding frequencies are taken as the transition probabilities. Leaves are interpreted as absorbing states with zero reward on every action, yielding a trivial lower bound. A pseudo-code for this computation is given as algorithm 2. ASOP then outputs the action ? ? (s0 , a). ? ? (s0 ) ? argmax Q a?A The optimal policy of the empirical MDP has the property that the empirical lower bound of its value, computed from the information collected by planning in the individual realizations, is maximal over the set of all policies. We give a pseudo-code for the ASOP algorithm as algorithm 3. Algorithm 2: ActionValue Data: A forest F and an action a, with each tree in F representing the same state s Result: An empirical lower bound for the value of a in s Let E denote the edges representing action a at any of the root nodes of F . if E = ? then return 0 else Let F be the set of trees pointed to by the edges in E. Enumerate the states represented by any tree in F by {s0i : i ? I} for some finite I. foreach i ? I do Denote the set of trees in F which represent si by Fi . Let ??i := maxa0 ?A ActionValue(Fi , a0 ). Let p?i := |Fi |/|F |. P return i?I p?i (r(s, a, s0i ) + ? ??i ) Algorithm 3: ASOP Data: The initial state s0 , a per-tree budget b ? N and the forest size m ? N Result: An action to take for i = 1, . . . , m do Let Ti := SOP(s0 , b). return argmaxa?A ActionValue({T1 , . . . , Tm }, a) 5 Finite-sample analysis In this section, we provide a finite-sample analysis of ASOP in terms of the number of planning trees m and per-tree budget n. An immediate consequence of this analysis is that ASOP is consistent: the action returned by ASOP converges to the optimal action when both n and m tend to infinity. Our loss measure is the ?simple? regret, corresponding to the expected value of first playing the action ? ? (s0 ) returned by the algorithm at the initial state s0 and acting optimally from then on, compared to acting optimally from the beginning: Rn,m (s0 ) = Q? (s0 , ? ? (s0 )) ? Q? (s0 , ? ? (s0 )). First, let us use the ?safe? part of SOP to show that each S3-tree is fully explored up to a certain depth d when given a sufficiently large per-tree budget n. d+1 Lemma 1. For any d ? N, once a budget of n ? 2|A| |A||A|?1?1 has been spent by SOP on an S3-tree, the state-actions of all nodes up and including those at depth d have all been sampled exactly once. 4 d+1 Pd Proof. A complete |A|-ary tree contains |A|l nodes in level l, so it contains l=0 |A|l = |A||A|?1?1 nodes up to and including level d. In each of these nodes, |A| actions need to be explored. We complete the proof by noticing that SOP spends at least half of its budget on shallowest leaves. ? Let v?? and v?,n denote the value functions for a policy ? in the infinite, completely explored S3-tree defined by a random realization ? and the finite S3-tree constructed by SOP for a budget of n in the same realization ?, respectively. From Lemma 1 we deduce that if the per-tree budget is at least log |A| |A| ? [(1 ? ?)] log(1/?) . |A| ? 1 P d+1 ? ? we obtain |v?? (s0 ) ? v?,n (s0 )| ? i=d+1 ? i ri ? ?1?? ?  for any policy ?. n?2 (3) ASOP aggregates the trees and computes the optimal policy ? ? of the resulting empirical MDP whose transition probabilities are defined by the frequencies (over the m S3-trees) of transitions from state-action to successor states. Therefore, ? ? is actually a policy maximizing the function m 1 X ? ?? 7 v (s0 ). m i=1 ?i ,n (4) If the number m of S3-trees and the per-tree budget n are large, we therefore expect the optimal policy ? ? of the empirical MDP to be close to the optimal policy ? ? of the true MDP. This is the result stated in the following theorem. Theorem 1. For any ? ? (0, 1) and  ? (0, 1), if the number of S3-trees is at least   log K i? log(1/?) 8 K h m? 2 (1 ? ?) log |A| + log(4/?) (5)  (1 ? ?)2 K ?1 4 and the per-tree budget is at least log |A| n?2 i? log(1/?) |A| h  (1 ? ?) , |A| ? 1 4 (6) then P (Rm,n (s0 ) < ) ? 1 ? ?. Proof. Let ? ? (0, 1), and  ? (0, 1) and fix realizations {?1 , . . . , ?m } of the stochastic MDP, for some m satisfying (5). Each realization ?i corresponds to an infinite, completely explored S3-tree. Let n denote some per-tree budget satisfying (6). Analogously to (3), we know from Lemma 1 that, given our choice of n, SOP constructs trees which d+1 are completely explored up to depth d := b log((1??)/4) c, fulfilling ?1?? ? 4 . log ? Consider the following truncated value functions: let ?d? (s0 ) denote the sum of expected discounted rewards obtained in the original MDP when following policy ? for d steps and then receiving reward zero from there on, and let ???i ,d (s0 ) denote the analogous quantity in the MDP corresponding to realization ?i . Pm ? Pm ? 1 1 ? ? := m := m Define, for all policies ?, the quantities v?m,n ?m,d i=1 v?i ,n (s0 ) and ? i=1 ??i ,d (s0 ). Since the trees are complete up to level d and the rewards are non-negative, we deduce that we have 0 ? v??i ,n ? ???i ,d ? 4 for each i and each policy ?, thus the same will be true for the averages: ? ? 0 ? v?m,n ? ??m,d ?  4 ??. (7) ? Notice that ?d? (s0 ) = E? [??,d (s0 )]. From the Chernoff-Hoeffding inequality, we have that for any 1 fixed policy ? (since the truncated values lie in [0, 1?? ]),  2 2 ? P |? ?m,d ? ?d? (s0 )| ? 4 ? 2e?m (1??) /8 . Now we need a uniform bound over the set of all possible policies. The number of distinct policies is d |A| ? |A|K ? ? ? ? ? |A|K (at each level l, there are at most K l states that can be reached by following a 5 l policy at previous levels, so there are |A|K different choices that policies can make at level l). Thus h d+1 i 8 K 4 since m ? 2 (1??)2 K?1 log |A| + log( ? ) we have   ? P max |? ?m,d ? ?d? (s0 )| ? 4 ? 2? . (8) ? ? The action returned by ASOP is ? ? (s0 ), where ? ? := argmax? v?m,n . Finally, it follows that with probability at least 1 ? ?: Rn,m (s0 ) = Q? (s0 , ? ? (s0 )) ? Q? (s0 , ? ? (s0 )) ? v ? (s0 ) ? v ?? (s0 ) ? ? ? = v ? (s0 ) ? v?m,n + ?0, ?? ? v (s0 ) ? {z | ?/4, ? ? ? v?m,n ? v?m,n {z } | by definition of ?? ? ? ?d? (s0 ) + ?d? (s0 ) } by truncation | ? {z ?/4, ? ? ? ? ? ? + v?m,n ? ??m,d + ??m,d ? ?d?? (s0 ) + ?d?? (s0 ) ? v ?? (s0 ) {z } | {z } | {z } | ?? ??m,d by (8) } ?/4, ?? + ??m,d | ?0, by (7) ? {z ?/4, ?? v?m,n by (7) + 2 by (8) ?0, by truncation ? } Remark 1. The total budget (nm) required to return an -optimal action with high probability is log(K|A|) thus of order ?2? log(1/?) . Notice that this rate is poorer (by a ?2 factor) than the rate obtained for uniform planning in [2]; this is a direct consequence of the fact that we are only drawing samples, whereas a full model of the transition probabilities is assumed in [2]. Remark 2. Since there is a finite number of actions, by denoting ? > 0 the optimality gap between the best and the second-best optimal action values, we have that the optimal arm is identified (in high log(K|A|) probability) (i.e. the simple regret is 0) after a total budget of order ??2? log(1/?) . Remark 3. The optimistic part of the algorithm allows a deep exploration of the MDP. At the same time, it biases the expression maximized by ? ? in (4) towards near-optimal actions of the deterministic realizations. Under the assumptions of theorem 1, the bias becomes insignificant. Remark 4. Notice that we do not use the optimistic properties of the algorithm in the analysis. The analysis only uses the ?safe? part of the SOP planning, i.e. the fact that one sample out of two are devoted to expanding the shallowest nodes. An analysis of the benefit of the optimistic part of the algorithm, similar to the analyses carried out in [9, 2] would be much more involved and is deferred to a future work. However the impact of the optimistic part of the algorithm is essential in practice, as shown in the numerical results. 6 Numerical results In this section, we compare the performance of ASOP to OP-MDP [2], UCT [12], and FSSS [17]. We use the (noisy) inverted pendulum benchmark problem from [2], which consists of swinging up and stabilizing a weight attached to an actuated link that rotates in a vertical plane. Since the available power is too low to push the pendulum up in a single rotation from the initial state, the pendulum has to be swung back and forth to gather energy, prior to being pushed up and stabilized. The inverted pendulum is described by the state variables (?, ?) ? ? [??, ?] ? [?15, 15] and the differential equation ? ? = (mgl sin(?) ? b?? ? K(K ?? + u)/R) /J, where J = 1.91 ? 10?4 kg ? m2 , m = 0.055 kg, g = 9.81 m/s2 , l = 0.042 m, b = 3 ? 10?6 Nm ? s/rad, K = 0.0536 Nm/A, and R = 9.5 ?. The state variable ?? is constrained to [?15, 15] by saturation. The discrete time problem is obtained by mapping actions from A = {?3V, 0V, 3V} to segments of a piecewise control signal u, each 0.05s in duration, and then numerically integrating the differential equation on the constant segments using RK4. The actions are applied stochastically: with probability 0.6, the intended voltage is applied in the control signal, whereas with probability 0.4, the smaller voltage 0.7a is applied. The goal is to stabilize the pendulum in the unstable equilibrium s? = (0, 0) (pointing up, at rest) when starting from state (??, 0) (pointing down, at rest). This goal is expressed by the penalty function (s, a, s0 ) 7? ?5?02 ? 0.1?? 02 ? a2 , where s0 = (?0 , ?? 0 ). The reward function r is obtained by scaling and translating the values of the penalty function so that it maps to the interval [0, 1], with r(s, 0, s? ) = 1. The discount factor is set to ? = 0.95. 6 OP-MDP UCT 0.2 7 FSSS 1 7 FSSS 2 7 FSSS 3 7 ASOP 2 ASOP 3 Sum of discounted rewards 17 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.2 16 15.8 102 103 104 Calls to the simulator per step Figure 1: Comparison of ASOP to OP-MDP, UCT, and FSSS on the inverted pendulum benchmark problem, showing the sum of discounted rewards for simulations of 50 time steps. The algorithms are compared for several budgets. In the cases of ASOP, UCT, and FSSS, the budget is in terms of calls to the simulator. OP-MDP does not use a simulator. Instead, every possible successor state is incorporated into the planning tree, together with its precise probability mass, and each of these states is counted against the budget. As the benchmark problem is stochastic, and internal randomization (for the simulator) is used in all algorithms except OP-MDP, the performance is averaged over 50 repetitions. The algorithm parameters have been selected manually to achieve good performance. For ASOP, we show results for forest sizes of two and three. For UCT, the Chernoff-Hoeffding term multiplier is set to 0.2 (the results are not very sensitive in the value, therefore only one result is shown). For FSSS, we use one to three samples per state-action. For both UCT and FSSS, a rollout depth of seven is used. OP-MDP does not have any parameters. The results are shown in figure 1. We observe that on this problem, ASOP performs much better than OP-MDP for every value of the budget, and also performs well in comparison to the other sampling based methods, UCT and FSSS. Figure 2 shows the impact of optimistic planning on the performance of our aggregation method. For forest sizes of both one and three, optimistic planning leads to considerably increased performance. This is due to the greater planning depth in the lookahead tree when using optimistic exploration. For the case of a single tree, performance decreases (presumably due to overfitting) on the stochastic problem for increasing budget. The effect disappears when more than one tree is used. 7 Conclusion We introduced ASOP, a novel algorithm for solving online planning problems using a (randomized) simulator for the MDP, under a budget constraint. The algorithm works by constructing a forest of single successor state trees, each corresponding to a random realization of the MDP transitions. Each tree is constructed using a combination of safe and optimistic planning. An empirical MDP is defined, based on the forest, and the first action of the optimal policy of this empirical MDP is returned. In short, our algorithm targets structured problems (where the value function possesses some smoothness property around the optimal policies of the deterministic realizations of the MDP, in a sense defined e.g. in [13]) by using the optimistic principle to focus rapidly on the most promising area(s) of the search space. It can also find a reasonable solution in unstructured problems, since some of the budget is allocated for uniform exploration. ASOP shows good performance on the inverted pendulum benchmark. Finally, our algorithm is also appealing in that the numerically heavy part of constructing the planning trees, in which the simulator is used, can be performed in a distributed way. 7 Sum of discounted rewards 17 Safe+Optimistic 1 Safe+Optimistic 3 Safe 1 Safe 3 Optimistic 1 Optimistic 3 16.5 16 15.5 101 102 103 104 Calls to the simulator per step Figure 2: Comparison of different planning strategies (on the same problem as in figure 1). The ?Safe? strategy is to use uniform planning in the individual trees, the ?Optimistic? strategy is to use OPD. ASOP corresponds to the ?Safe+Optimistic? strategy. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the support of the BMBF project ALICE (01IB10003B), the European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant no 270327 CompLACS and the Belgian PAI DYSCO. Rapha?l Fonteneau is a post-doctoral fellow of the F.R.S. - FNRS. We also thank Lucian Busoniu for sharing his implementation of OP-MDP. Appendix: Counterexample to consistency when using purely optimistic planning in S3-trees Consider the MDP in figure 3 with k zero reward transitions in the middle branch, where ? ? (0, 1) and k ? N are chosen such that 12 > ? k > 13 (e.g. ? = 0.95 and k = 14). The trees are constructed iteratively, and every iteration consists of exploring a leaf of maximal b-value, where exploring a leaf means introducing a single successor state per action at the selected leaf. The state-action values ?k 1 1 1 1 1 are: Q? (x, a) = 31 1?? + 32 1?? > 31 1?? + 23 13 1?? = 95 1?? and Q? (x, b) = 12 1?? . There are two 1 possible outcomes when sampling the action a, which occur with probabilities 3 and 23 , respectively: Outcome I: The upper branch of action a is sampled. In this case, the contribution to the forest is an arbitrarily long reward 1 path for action a, and a finite reward 12 path for action b. k ? 1 Outcome II: The lower branch of action a is sampled. Because 1?? < 21 1?? , the lower branch will be explored only up to k times, as its b-value is then lower than the value (and therefore any b-value) of action b. The contribution of this case to the forest is a finite reward 0 path for action a and an arbitrary long (depending on the budget) reward 12 path for action b. For an increasing exploration budget per tree and an increasing number of trees, the approximate 1 1 action values of action a and b obtained by aggregation converge to 13 1?? and 12 1?? , respectively. Therefore, the decision rule will select action b for a sufficiently large budget, even though a is the 1 1 optimal action. This leads to simple regret of R(x) = Q? (x, a) ? Q? (x, b) > 18 1?? . s0 a 1 3 1 1 2 3 0 0 ... 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 ... b 1 2 ... 1 2 . . . (I) . . . (II) ... Figure 3: The middle branch (II) of this MDP is never explored deep enough if only the node with the largest b-value is sampled in each iteration. Transition probabilities are given in gray where not equal to one. 8 References [1] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and P. Fischer. Finite time analysis of multiarmed bandit problems. Machine Learning, 47:235?256, 2002. [2] L. Busoniu and R. Munos. Optimistic planning for Markov decision processes. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), JMLR W & CP 22, pages 182?189, 2012. [3] E. F. Camacho and C. Bordons. Model Predictive Control. Springer, 2004. [4] R. Coulom. Efficient selectivity and backup operators in Monte-Carlo tree search. Computers and Games, pages 72?83, 2007. [5] B. Defourny, D. Ernst, and L. Wehenkel. Lazy planning under uncertainty by optimizing decisions on an ensemble of incomplete disturbance trees. In Recent Advances in Reinforcement Learning - European Workshop on Reinforcement Learning (EWRL), pages 1?14, 2008. [6] R. Fonteneau, L. Busoniu, and R. Munos. Optimistic planning for belief-augmented Markov decision processes. In IEEE International Symposium on Adaptive Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning (ADPRL), 2013. [7] S. Gelly, Y. Wang, R. Munos, and O. Teytaud. Modification of UCT with patterns in MonteCarlo go. Technical report, INRIA RR-6062, 2006. [8] P. E. Hart, N. J. Nilsson, and B. Raphael. A formal basis for the heuristic determination of minimum cost paths. Systems Science and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on, 4(2):100?107, 1968. [9] J. F. Hren and R. Munos. Optimistic planning of deterministic systems. Recent Advances in Reinforcement Learning, pages 151?164, 2008. [10] J. E. Ingersoll. Theory of Financial Decision Making. Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1987. [11] M. Kearns, Y. Mansour, and A. Y. Ng. A sparse sampling algorithm for near-optimal planning in large Markov decision processes. Machine Learning, 49(2-3):193?208, 2002. [12] L. Kocsis and C. Szepesv?ri. Bandit based Monte-Carlo planning. Machine Learning: ECML 2006, pages 282?293, 2006. [13] R. Munos. From bandits to Monte-Carlo Tree Search: The optimistic principle applied to optimization and planning. To appear in Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2013. [14] S. A. Murphy. Optimal dynamic treatment regimes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 65(2):331?366, 2003. [15] J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Reinforcement learning for humanoid robotics. In IEEE-RAS International Conference on Humanoid Robots, pages 1?20, 2003. [16] R. S. Sutton and A. G. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. MIT Press, 1998. [17] T. J. Walsh, S. Goschin, and M. L. Littman. Integrating sample-based planning and model-based reinforcement learning. In AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2010. 9
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Online Learning in Episodic Markovian Decision Processes by Relative Entropy Policy Search Alexander Zimin Institute of Science and Technology Austria [email protected] Gergely Neu INRIA Lille ? Nord Europe [email protected] Abstract We study the problem of online learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) where the loss function is allowed to change between episodes. The natural performance measure in this learning problem is the regret defined as the difference between the total loss of the best stationary policy and the total loss suffered by the learner. We assume that the learner is given access to a finite action space A and the state space X has a layered structure with L layers, so that state transitions are only possible between consecutive layers. We describe a variant of the recently proposed Relative p Entropy Policy Search algorithm and show that its regret after T episodes is 2 L|X ||A|T log(|X ||A|/L) in the bandit setting and p 2L T log(|X ||A|/L) in the full information setting, given that the learner has perfect knowledge of the transition probabilities of the underlying MDP. These guarantees largely improve previously known results under much milder assumptions and cannot be significantly improved under general assumptions. 1 Introduction In this paper, we study the problem of online learning in a class of finite non-stationary episodic Markov decision processes. The learning problem that we consider can be formalized as a sequential interaction between a learner (often called agent) and an environment, where the interaction between the two entities proceeds in episodes. Every episode consists of multiple time steps: In every time step of an episode, a learner has to choose one of its available actions after observing some part of the current state of the environment. The chosen action influences the observable state of the environment in a stochastic fashion and imposes some loss on the learner. However, the entire state (be it observed or not) also influences the loss. The goal of the learner is to minimize its total (non-discounted) loss that it suffers. In this work, we assume that the unobserved part of the state evolves autonomously from the observed part of the state or the actions chosen by the learner, thus corresponding to a state sequence generated by an oblivious adversary such as nature. Otherwise, absolutely no statistical assumption is made about the mechanism generating the unobserved state variables. As usual for such learning problems, we set our goal as minimizing the regret defined as the difference between the total loss suffered by the learner and the total loss of the best stationary state-feedback policy. This setting fuses two important paradigms of learning theory: online learning [5] and reinforcement learning [21, 22]. The learning problem outlined above can be formalized as an online learning problem where the actions of the learner correspond to choosing policies in a known Markovian decision process where the loss function changes arbitrarily between episodes. This setting is a simplified version of the Parts of this work were done while Alexander Zimin was enrolled in the MSc. programme of the Central European University, Budapest, and Gergely Neu was working on his PhD. thesis at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics and the MTA SZTAKI Institute for Computer Science and Control, Hungary. Both authors would like to express their gratitude to L?aszl?o Gy?orfi for making this collaboration possible. 1 learning problem first addressed by Even-Dar et al. [8, 9], who consider online learning unichain MDPs. In their variant of the problem, the learner faces a continuing MDP task where all policies are assumed to generate a unique stationary distribution over the state space and losses can change arbitrarily between consecutive time steps. Assuming that the learner observes the complete loss function after each time step (that is, assuming full p information feedback), they propose an algorithm 2 called MDP-E and show that its regret is O(? T log |A|), where ? > 0 is an upper bound on the mixing time of any policy. The core idea of MDP-E is the observation that the regret of the global decision problem can be decomposed into regrets of simpler decision problems defined in each state. Yu et al. [23] consider the same setting and propose an algorithm that guarantees o(T ) regret under bandit feedback where the learner only observes the losses that it actually suffers, but not the whole loss function. Based on the results of Even-Dar et al. [9], Neu et al. [16] propose an algorithm that is shown to enjoy an O(T 2/3 ) bound on the regret in the bandit setting, given some further assumptions concerning the transition structure of the underlying MDP. For the case of continuing deterministic MDP tasks, Dekel and Hazan [7] describe an algorithm guaranteeing O(T 2/3 ) regret. The immediate precursor of the current paper is the work of Neu et al. [14], who consider online learning in episodic MDPs where the state space has a layered (or loop-free) structure and every policy visits every state with a positive probability of at least ? > 0. Their analysis is based on a decomposition similar to the one proposed by Even-Dar et al. [9], p p and is sufficient to prove a regret bound of O(L2 T |A| log |A|/?) in the bandit case and O(L2 T log |A|) in the full information case. In this paper, we present a learning algorithm that directly aims to minimize the global regret of the algorithm instead of trying to minimize the local regrets in a decomposed problem. Our approach is motivated by the insightful paper of Peters et al. [17], who propose an algorithm called Relative Entropy Policy Search (REPS) for reinforcement learning problems. As Peters et al. [17] and Kakade [11] point out, good performance of policy search algorithms requires that the information loss between the consecutive policies selected by the algorithm is bounded, so that policies are only modified in small steps. Accordingly, REPS aims to select policies that minimize the expected loss while guaranteeing that the state-action distributions generated by the policies stay close in terms of Kullback?Leibler divergence. Further, Daniel et al. [6] point out that REPS is closely related to a number of previously known probabilistic policy search methods. Our paper is based on the observation that REPS is closely related to the Proximal Point Algorithm (PPA) first proposed by Martinet [13] (see also [20]). We propose a variant of REPS called online REPS or O-REPS and analyze it using fundamental results concerning the PPA family. Our analysis improves all previous results concerning online p regret of O-REPS is bounded by p learning in episodic MDPs: we show that the expected 2 L|X ||A|T log(|X ||A|/L) in the bandit setting and 2L T log(|X ||A|/L) in the full information setting. Unlike previous works in the literature, we do not have to make any assumptions about the transition dynamics apart from the loop-free assumption. The full discussion of our results is deferred to Section 5. Before we move to the technical content of the paper, we first fix some conventions. Random variables will be typeset in boldface (e.g., x, a) and indefinite sums over states and actions are to be understood as sums over the entire state and action spaces. For clarity, we assume that all actions are available in all states, however, this assumption is not essential. The indicator of any event A will be denoted by I {A}. 2 Problem definition An episodic loop-free Markov decision process is formally defined by the tuple M = {X , A, P }, where X is the finite state space, A is the finite action space, and P : X ? X ? A is the transition function, where P (x0 |x, a) is the probability that the next state of the Markovian environment will be x0 , given that action a is selected in state x. We will assume that M satisfies the following assumptions: SL ? The state space X can be decomposed into non-intersecting layers, i.e. X = k=0 Xk where Xl ? Xk = ? for l 6= k. ? X0 and XL are singletons, i.e. X0 = {x0 } and XL = {xL }. 2 ? Transitions are possible only between consecutive layers. Formally, if P (x0 |x, a) > 0, then x0 ? Xk+1 and x ? Xk for some 0 ? k ? L ? 1. The interaction between the learner and the environment is described on Figure 1. The interaction of an agent and the Markovian environment proceeds in episodes, where in each episode the agent starts in state x0 and moves forward across the consecutive layers until it reaches state xL .1 We T assume that the environment selects a sequence of loss functions {`t }t=1 and the losses only change between episodes. Furthermore, we assume that the learner only observes the losses that it suffers in each individual state-action pair that it visits, in other words, we consider bandit feedback.2 Parameters: Markovian environment M = {X , A, P }; For all episodes t = 1, 2, . . . , T , repeat 1. The environment chooses the loss function `t : X ? A ? [0, 1]. 2. The learner starts in state x0 (t) = x0 . 3. For all time steps l = 0, 1, 2, . . . , L ? 1, repeat (a) (b) (c) (d) The learner observes xl (t) ? Xl . Based on its previous observations (and randomness), the learner selects al (t). The learner suffers and observes loss `t (xl (t), al (t)). The environment draws the new state xl+1 (t) ? P (?|xl (t), al (t)). Figure 1: The protocol of online learning in episodic MDPs. For defining our performance measure, we need to specify a set of reference controllers that is made available to the learner. To this end, we define the concept of (stochastic stationary) policies: A policy is defined as a mapping ? : A ? X ? [0, 1], where ?(a|x) gives the probability of selecting action a in state x. The expected total loss of a policy ? is defined as # " T L?1 XX 0 0 `t (xk , ak ) P, ? , LT (?) = E t=1 k=0 where the notation E [ ?| P, ?] is used to emphasize that the random variables x0k and a0k are generated by executing ? in the MDP specified by the transition function P . Denote the total expected b T = PT PL?1 E [ `t (xk (t), ak (t))| P ], where the expectation is loss suffered by the learner as L t=1 k=0 taken over the internal randomization of the learner and the random transitions of the Markovian environment. Using these notations, we define the learner?s goal as minimizing the (total expected) regret defined as bT = L b T ? min LT (?), R ? where the minimum is taken over the complete set of stochastic stationary policies.3 It is beneficial to introduce the concept of occupancy measures on the state-action space X ? A: the occupancy measure q ? of policy ? is defined as the collection of distributions generated by executing policy ? on the episodic MDP described by P : h i q ? (x, a) = P x0k(x) = x, a0k(x) = a P, ? , where k(x) denotes the index of the layer that x belongs to. It is easy to see that the occupancy measure of any policy ? satisfies X X X q ? (x, a) = P (x|x0 , a0 )q ? (x0 , a0 ), (1) a x0 ?Xk(x)?1 a0 1 Such MDPs naturally arise in episodic decision tasks where some notion of time is present in the state description. 2 In the literature of online combinatorial optimization, this feedback scheme is often called semi-bandit feedback, see Audibert et al. [2]. 3 The existence of this minimum is a standard result of MDP theory, see Puterman [18]. 3 for all x ? X \ {x0 , xl }, with q ? (x0 , a) = ?(a|x0 ) for all a ? A. The set of all occupancy measures satisfying the above equality in the MDP M will be denoted as ?(M ). The policy ? is said to generate the occupancy measure q ? ?(M ) if q(x, a) ?(a|x) = P b q(x, b) holds for all (x, a) ? X ? A. It is clear that there exists a unique generating policy for all measures in ?(M ) and vice versa. The policy generating q will be denoted as ? q . In what follows, we will redefine the task of the learner from having to select individual actions ak (t) to having to select occupancy measures qt ? ?(M ) in each episode t. To see why this notion simplifies the treatment of the problem, observe that " L?1 # L?1 X X X X E `t (x0k , a0k ) P, ? q = q(x, a)`t (x, a) k=0 k=0 x?Xk a (2) X def = q(x, a)`t (x, a) = hq, `t i , x,a where we defined the inner product h?, ?i on X ? A in the last line. Using this notation, we can reformulate our original problem as an instance of online linear optimization with decision space ?(M ). Assuming that the learner selects occupancy measure qt in episode t, the regret can be rewritten as " T # X b T = max E R hqt ? q, `t i . q??(M ) 3 t=1 The algorithm: O-REPS Using the formalism introduced in the previous section, we now describe our algorithm called Online Relative Entropy Policy Search (O-REPS). O-REPS is an instance of online linear optimization methods usually referred to as Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL), Online Stochastic Mirror Descent (OSMD) or the Proximal Point Algorithm (PPA)?see, e.g., [1], [19], [3] and [2] for a discussion of these methods and their relations. To allow comparisons with the original derivation of REPS by Peters et al. [17], we formalize our algorithm as an instance of PPA. Before describing the algorithm, some more definitions are in order. First, define D (qkq 0 ) as the unnormalized Kullback? Leibler divergence between two occupancy measures q and q 0 : X q(x, a) X D (qkq 0 ) = q(x, a) log 0 ? (q(x, a) ? q 0 (x, a)) . q (x, a) x,a x,a Furthermore, let R(q) define the unnormalized negative entropy of the occupancy measure q: X X R(q) = q(x, a) log q(x, a) ? q(x, a). x,a x,a We are now ready to define O-REPS formally. In the first episode, O-REPS chooses the uniform policy with ?1 (a|x) = 1/|A| for all x and a, and we let q1 = q ?1 .4 Then, the algorithm proceeds recursively: After observing ut = (x0 (t), a0 (t), `t (x0 (t), a0 (t)), . . . , xL?1 (t), aL?1 (t), `t (xL?1 (t), aL?1 (t)), xL (t)) in episode t, we define the loss estimates `?t as `t (x, a) `?t = I {(x, a) ? ut } , qt (x, a) where we used the notation (x, a) ? ut to indicate that the state-action pair (x, a) was observed during episode t. After episode t, O-REPS selects the occupancy measure that solves the optimization problem n D E o qt+1 = arg min ? q, `?t + D(q||qt ) . (3) q??(M ) 4 Note that q ? can be simply computed by using (1) recursively. 4 In episode t, our algorithm follows the policy ?t = ? qt . Defining Ut = (u1 , u2 , . . . , ut ), we clearly have that qt (x, a) = P [ (x, a) ? ut | Ut?1 ], so `?t (x, a) is an unbiased estimate of `t (x, a) for all (x, a) such that qt (x, a) > 0: i h `t (x, a) P [ (x, a) ? ut | Ut?1 ] = `t (x, a). E `?t (x, a) Ut?1 = (4) qt (x, a) We now proceed to explain how the policy update step (3) can be implemented efficiently. It is known (see, e.g., Bart?ok et al. [3, Lemma 8.6]) that performing this optimization can be reformulated as first solving the unconstrained optimization problem n D E o ? t+1 = arg min ? q, `?t + D(q||qt ) q q and then projecting the result to ?(M ) as qt+1 = arg min D (qk? qt+1 ) . q??(M ) ? ? t+1 (x, a) = qt (x, a)e??`t (x,a) . The projection The first step can be simply carried out by setting q step, however, requires more care. To describe the projection procedure, we need to introduce some more notation. For any function v : X ? R and loss function ` : X ? A ? [0, 1] we define a function X ?(x, a|v, `) = ??`(x, a) ? v(x0 )P (x0 |x, a) + v(x). (5) x0 ?X As noted by Peters et al. [17], the above function can be regarded as the Bellman error corresponding to the value function v. The next proposition provides a succinct formalization of the optimization problem (3). Proposition 1. Let t > 1 and define the function X ? Zt (v, k) = qt (x, a)e?(x,a|v,`t ) . x?Xk ,a?A The update step (3) can be performed as ? qt+1 (x, a) = qt (x, a)e?(x,a|?vt ,`t ) , Zt (? vt , k(x)) where ? t = arg min v v L X ln Zt (v, k). (6) k=0 Minimizing the expression on the right-hand side of Equation (6) is an unconstrained convex optimization problem (see Boyd and Vandenberghe [4] and the comments of Peters et al. [17]) and can be solved efficiently. It is important to note that since q1 (x, a) > 0 holds for all (x, a) pairs, qt (x, a) is also positive for all t > 0 by the multiplicative update rule, so Equation 4 holds for all state-action pairs (x, a) in all time steps. The proof follows the steps of Peters et al. [17], however, their original formalization of REPS is slightly different, which results in small changes in the analysis as well. For further comments regarding the differences between O-REPS and REPS, see Section 5. Proof of Proposition 1. We start with formulating the projection step as a constrained optimization problem: X subject to a X X x?Xk min D (qk? qt+1 ) q X q(x, a) = P (x|x0 , a0 )q(x0 , a0 ) for all x ? X \ {x0 , xl }, x0 ,a0 for all k = 0, 1, . . . , L ? 1. q(x, a) = 1 a 5 To solve the problem, consider the Lagrangian: ? L?1 X X Lt (q) =D (qk? qt+1 ) + ?k ? + q(x, a) ? 1? x?Xk ,a?A k=0 L?1 X ? ? X ? X X x0 ?Xk?1 a0 v(x) ? k=1 x?Xk q(x0 , a0 )P (x|x0 , a0 ) ? X q(x, a)? a ! =D (qk? qt+1 ) + X q(x0 , a) ?0 + X 0 0 v(x )P (x |x0 , a) ? x0 a L?1 X ?k k=0 ! + XX x6=x0 q(x, a) ?k(x) + X v(x0 )P (x0 |x, a) ? v(x) , x0 a L?1 {?k }k=0 and {v(x)}x?X \{x0 ,xl } are Lagrange multipliers. In what follows, we set v(x0 ) = where v(xL ) = 0 for convenience. Differentiating the Lagrangian with respect to any q(x, a), we get X ?Lt (q) ? t+1 (x, a) + ?k(x) + = ln q(x, a) ? ln q v(x0 )P (x0 |x, a) ? v(x). ?q(x, a) 0 x Hence, setting the gradient to zero, we obtain the formula for qt+1 (x, a): P ? t+1 (x, a)e??k(x) ? qt+1 (x, a) = q x0 v(x0 )P (x0 |x,a)+v(x) . ? t+1 (x, a), we get Substituting the formula for q ? qt+1 (x, a) = qt (x, a)e??k(x) +?(x,a|v,`t ) . Using the second constraint, we have for every k = 0, 1, . . . , L ? 1 that X X ? qt (x, a)e??k +?(x,a|v,`t ) = 1, x?Xk a ??k yielding e = 1/Zt (v, k), which leaves us with computing the value of v at the optimum. This can be done by solving the dual problem of maximizing X ? t+1 (x, a) ? L ? q x,a L?1 X ?k k=0 L?1 over {?k }k=0 . If we drop the constants and express each ?k in terms of Zt (v, k), then the problem PL?1 is equivalent to maximizing ? k=0 ln Zt (v, k), that is, solving the optimization problem (6). 4 Analysis The next theorem states our main result concerning the regret of O-REPS under bandit feedback. The proof of the theorem is based on rather common ideas used in the analysis of FTRL/OSMD/PPAstyle algorithms (see, e.g., [24], Chapter 11 of [5], [1], [12], [2]). After proving the theorem, we also present the regret bound for O-REPS when used in a full information setting where the learner gets to observe `t after each episode t. Theorem 1. Assuming bandit feedback, the total expected regret of O-REPS satisfies b T ? ?|X ||A|T + L log R r In particular, setting ? = |X ||A| L ? . |X ||A| L log L T |X ||A| yields r bT ? 2 R L|X ||A|T log 6 |X ||A| . L Proof. By standard arguments (see, e.g., [19, Lemma 12], [3, Lemma 9.2] or [5, Theorem 11.1]), we have T D T D E X E D (qkq ) X 1 ? t+1 , `?t + qt ? q, `?t ? . (7) qt ? q ? t=1 t=1 ? t+1 and the fact that ex ? 1 + x, we get that Using the exact form of q ? t+1 (x, a) ? qt (x, a) ? ?qt (x, a)`?t (x, a) q and thus T D T X E X X ? t+1 , `?t ? ? qt ? q qt (x, a)`?2t (x, a) t=1 x,a t=1 ?? T X X qt (x, a) t=1 x,a T X X `t (x, a) ? `t (x, a) ? ? `?t (x, a). qt (x, a) t=1 x,a Combining this with (7), we get T D T X E X X D (qkq1 ) ? . qt ? q, `t ? ? `?t (x, a) + ? t=1 t=1 x,a (8) Next, we take an expectation on both sides. By Equation (4), we have " T # XX E `?t (x, a) ? |X ||A|T. t=1 x,a It also follows from Equation (4) that E notice that hD q, `?t Ei D (qkq1 ) ?R(q) ? R(q1 ) ? = hq, `t i and E L?1 X X X hD qt , `?t Ei q1 (x, a) log a k=0 x?Xk = E [hqt , `t i]. Finally, 1 q1 (x, a) (since R(q) ? 0) ? L?1 X log |Xk ||A| ? L log k=0 |X ||A| , L where we used the trivial upper bound on the entropy of distributions and Jensen?s inequality in the last step. Plugging the above upper bound into Equation (8), we obtain the statement of the theorem. Theorem 2. Assuming full feedback, the total expected regret of O-REPS satisfies b T ? ?LT + L log R q In particular, setting ? = log |X ||A| L T |X ||A| L ? . yields r |X ||A| b RT ? 2L T log . L The proof of the statement follows directly from the proof of Theorem 1, with the only difference that we set `?t = `t and we can use the tighter upper bound T X ? t+1 , `t i ? ? hqt ? q T X X qt (x, a)`2t (x, a) t=1 x,a t=1 ?? T X X qt (x, a) = ?LT, t=1 x,a where we used that P x?Xk P a qt (x, a) = 1 for all layers k. 7 5 Conclusions and future work Comparison with previous results We first compare our regret bounds with previous results from the literature. First, our guarantees for the full information case trade poff a factor of L present in the bounds of Neu et al. [14] to a (usually much smaller) factor of log p|X |. More importantly, our bounds trade off a factor of L3/2 /? in the bandit case to a factor of |X |. This improvement is particularly remarkable considering that we do not need to assume that ? > 0, that is, we drop the rather unnatural assumption that every stationary policy has to visit every state with positive probability. In particular, dropping this assumption enables our algorithm to work in deterministic loop-free MDPs, that is, to solve the online shortest path problem (see, e.g., [10]). In the shortest path setting, O-REPS provides an alternative implementation to the Component Hedge algorithm analyzed by Koolen et al. [12], who prove identical bounds in the full information case. As shown by Audibert et al. [2], Component Hedge achieves the analog of our bounds in the bandit case as well. O-REPS also bears close resemblance to the algorithms of Even-Dar et al. [9]P and Neu et al. [16] who also use policy updates of the form ?t+1 (a|x) ? ?t (a|x) exp(??`t (x, a) ? x0 P (x0 |x, a)vt (x0 )). The most important difference between their algorithm and O-REPS is that their value functions vt are computed as the solution of the Bellman-equations instead of the solution of the optimization problem (6). By a simple combination of?our analysis and that of Even-Dar et al. [9], it is possible to e ? T ) in the unichain setting with full information feedback, show that O-REPS attains a regret of O( improving their bound by a factor of ? 3/2 under the same assumptions. It is an interesting open problem to find out if using the O-REPS value functions is a strictly better idea than solving the Bellman equations in general. Another important direction of future work is to extend our results to the case of unichain MDPs with bandit feedback and the setting where the transition probabilities of the underlying MDP is unknown (see Neu et al. [15]). Lower bounds Following the proof of Theorem 10 in Audibert et al. [2], it is straightforward to construct an MDP consisting of |X |/L chains of L consecutive bandit problems each with |A| p T log(|X ||A|) in the full inactions such that no algorithm can achieve smaller regret than 0.03L p formation case and 0.04 L|X ||A|T in the bandit case. These results suggest that our bounds cannot be significantly improved in general, however, finding an appropriate problem-dependent lower bound remains an interesting open problem in the much broader field of online linear optimization. REPS vs. O-REPS As noted several times above, our algorithm is directly inspired by the work of Peters et al. [17]. However, there is a slight difference between the original version of REPS and O-REPS, namely, Peters et al. aim to solve the optimization problem qt+1 = arg minq??(M ) hq, `?t i subject to the constraint D (qkqt ) ? ? for some ? > 0. This is to be contrasted with the following property of the occupancy measures generated by O-REPS (proved in the supplementary material): Lemma 1. For any t > 0, D (qt kqt+1 ) ? ?2 ?2 2 hqt , `t i. In particular, if the losses are estimated by bounded sample averages as done by Peters et al. [17], this gives D (qt kqt+1 ) ? ? 2 /2. While this is not the exact same property as desired by REPS, both inequalities imply that the occupancy measures stay close to each other in the 1-norm sense by Pinsker?s inequality. Thus we conjecture that our formulation of O-REPS has similar properties to the one studied by Peters et al. [17], while it might be somewhat simpler to implement. Acknowledgments Alexander Zimin is an OMV scholar. Gergely Neu?s work was carried out during the tenure of an ERCIM ?Alain Bensoussan? Fellowship Programme. The research leading to these results has received funding from INRIA, the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/20072013) under grant agreements 246016 and 231495 (project CompLACS), the Ministry of Higher Education and Research, Nord-Pas-de-Calais Regional Council and FEDER through the ?Contrat de Projets Etat Region (CPER) 2007-2013?. 8 References [1] Abernethy, J., Hazan, E., and Rakhlin, A. (2008). Competing in the dark: An efficient algorithm for bandit linear optimization. In Proceedings of the 21st Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), pages 263?274. [2] Audibert, J. Y., Bubeck, S., and Lugosi, G. (2013). Regret in online combinatorial optimization. Mathematics of Operations Research. to appear. [3] Bart?ok, G., P?al, D., Szepesv?ari, C., and Szita, I. (2011). Online learning. Lecture notes, University of Alberta. https://moodle.cs.ualberta.ca/file.php/354/notes.pdf. [4] Boyd, S. and Vandenberghe, L. (2004). Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press. [5] Cesa-Bianchi, N. and Lugosi, G. (2006). Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA. [6] Daniel, C., Neumann, G., and Peters, J. (2012). Hierarchical relative entropy policy search. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, volume 22 of JMLR Workshop and Conference Proceedings, pages 273?281. [7] Dekel, O. and Hazan, E. (2013). Better rates for any adversarial deterministic mdp. In Dasgupta, S. and McAllester, D., editors, Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML-13), volume 28, pages 675?683. JMLR Workshop and Conference Proceedings. [8] Even-Dar, E., Kakade, S. M., and Mansour, Y. (2005). Experts in a Markov decision process. In NIPS-17, pages 401?408. [9] Even-Dar, E., Kakade, S. M., and Mansour, Y. (2009). Online Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 34(3):726?736. [10] Gy?orgy, A., Linder, T., Lugosi, G., and Ottucs?ak, Gy.. (2007). The on-line shortest path problem under partial monitoring. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 8:2369?2403. [11] Kakade, S. (2001). A natural policy gradient. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14 (NIPS), pages 1531?1538. [12] Koolen, W. M., Warmuth, M. K., and Kivinen, J. (2010). Hedging structured concepts. In Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), pages 93?105. [13] Martinet, B. (1970). R?egularisation d?in?equations variationnelles par approximations successives. ESAIM: Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Analysis - Mod?elisation Math?ematique et Analyse Num?erique, 4(R3):154?158. [14] Neu, G., Gy?orgy, A., and Szepesv?ari, Cs. (2010a). The online loop-free stochastic shortestpath problem. In Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), pages 231?243. [15] Neu, G., Gy?orgy, A., and Szepesv?ari, Cs. (2012). The adversarial stochastic shortest path problem with unknown transition probabilities. In AISTATS 2012, pages 805?813. [16] Neu, G., Gy?orgy, A., Szepesv?ari, Cs., and Antos, A. (2010b). Online Markov decision processes under bandit feedback. In NIPS-23, pages 1804?1812. CURRAN. [17] Peters, J., M?ulling, K., and Altun, Y. (2010). Relative entropy policy search. In AAAI 2010, pages 1607?1612. [18] Puterman, M. L. (1994). Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley-Interscience. [19] Rakhlin, A. (2009). Lecture notes on online learning. [20] Rockafellar, R. T. (1976). Monotone Operators and the Proximal Point Algorithm. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 14(5):877?898. [21] Sutton, R. and Barto, A. (1998). Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press. [22] Szepesv?ari, Cs. (2010). Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers. [23] Yu, J. Y., Mannor, S., and Shimkin, N. (2009). Markov decision processes with arbitrary reward processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 34(3):737?757. [24] Zinkevich, M. (2003). Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent. In Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 928?936. 9
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Online Learning in Markov Decision Processes with Adversarially Chosen Transition Probability Distributions Peter L. Bartlett UC Berkeley and QUT [email protected] Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori Queensland University of Technology [email protected] Varun Kanade UC Berkeley [email protected] Yevgeny Seldin Queensland University of Technology [email protected] Csaba Szepesv?ari University of Alberta [email protected] Abstract We study the problem of online learning Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) when both the transition distributions and loss functions are chosen by an adversary. We present an algorithm that, under a mixing assumption, achieves p O( T log |?| + log |?|) regret with respect to a comparison set of policies ?. The regret is independent of the size of the state and action spaces. When expectations over sample paths can be computed efficiently and the comparison set ? has polynomial size, this algorithm is efficient. We also consider the episodic adversarial online shortest path problem. Here, in each episode an adversary may choose a weighted directed acyclic graph with an identified start and finish node. The goal of the learning algorithm is to choose a path that minimizes the loss while traversing from the start to finish node. At the end of each episode the loss function (given by weights on the edges) is revealed to the learning algorithm. The goal is to minimize regret with respect to a fixed policy for selecting paths. This problem is a special case of the online MDP problem. It was shown that for randomly chosen graphs and adversarial losses, the problem can be efficiently solved. We show that it also can be efficiently solved for adversarial graphs and randomly chosen losses. When both graphs and losses are adversarially chosen, we show that designing efficient algorithms for the adversarial online shortest path problem (and hence for the adversarial MDP problem) is as hard as learning parity with noise, a notoriously difficult problem that has been used to design efficient cryptographic schemes. Finally, we present an efficient algorithm whose regret scales linearly with the number of distinct graphs. 1 Introduction In many sequential decision problems, the transition dynamics can change with time. For example, in steering a vehicle, the state of the vehicle is determined by the actions taken by the driver, but also by external factors, such as terrain and weather conditions. As another example, the state of a 1 robot that moves in a room is determined both by its actions and by how people in the room interact with it. The robot might not have influence over these external factors, or it might be very difficult to model them. Other examples occur in portfolio optimization, clinical trials, and two player games such as poker. We consider the problem of online learning Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) when the transition probability distributions and loss functions are chosen adversarially and are allowed to change with time. We study the following game between a learner and an adversary: 1. The (oblivious) adversary chooses a sequence of transition kernels mt and loss functions `t . 2. At time t: (a) The learner observes the state xt in state space X and chooses an action at in the action space A. (b) The new state xt+1 ? X is drawn at random according to distribution mt (?|xt , at ). (c) The learner observes the transition kernel mt and the loss function `t , and suffers the loss `t (xt , at ). To handle the case when the representation of mt or `t is very large, we assume that the learner has a black-box access to mt and `t . The above game is played for a total of T rounds and the total PT loss suffered by the learner is t=1 `t (xt , at ). In the absence of state variables, the MDP problem reduces to a full information online learning problem (Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi [1]). The difficulty with MDP problems is that, unlike full information online learning problems, the choice of a policy at each round changes the future states and losses. A policy is a mapping ? : X ? ?A , where ?A denotes the set of distributions over A. To evaluate the learner?s performance, we imagine a hypothetical game where at each round the action played is chosen according to a fixed policy ?, and the transition kernels mt and loss functions `t are the same as those chosen by the oblivious adversary. Let (x?t , a?t ) denote a sequence of state and action pairs PT in this game. Then the loss of the policy ? is t=1 `t (x?t , a?t ). Define a set ? of policies that will be used as a benchmark to evaluate the learner?s performance. The regret of a learner A with respect to PT PT a policy ? ? ? is defined as the random variable RT (A, ?) = t=1 `t (xt , at ) ? t=1 `t (x?t , a?t ). The goal in adversarial online learning is to design learning algorithms for which the regret with respect to any policy grows sublinearly with T , the total number of rounds played. Algorithms with such a guarantee, somewhat unfortunately, are typically termed no-regret algorithms. We also study a special case of this problem: the episodic online adversarial shortest path problem. Here, in each episode the adversary chooses a layered directed acyclic graph with a unique start and finish node. The adversary also chooses a loss function, i.e., a weight for every edge in the graph. The goal of the learning algorithm is to choose a path from start to finish that minimizes the total loss. The loss along any path is simply the sum of the weights on the edges. At the end of the round the graph and the loss function are revealed to the learner. The goal, as in the case of the online MDP problem, is to minimize regret with respect to a class of policies for choosing the path. Note that the online shortest path problem is a special case of the online MDP problem; the states are the nodes in the graph and the transition dynamics is specified by the edges. 1.1 Related Work Burnetas and Katehakis [2], Jaksch et al. [3], and Bartlett and Tewari [4] propose efficient algorithms for finite MDP problems with stochastic transitions and loss functions. These results are extended to MDPs with large state and action spaces ? in [5, 6, 7]. Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesv?ari [5] and Abbasi-Yadkori [6] derive algorithms with O( T ) regret for linearly parameterized MDP problems, while Ortner and Ryabko [7] derive O(T (2d+1)/(2d+2) ) regret bounds under a Lipschitz assumption, where d is the dimensionality of the state space. We note that these algorithms are computationally expensive. Even-Dar et al. [8] consider the problem of online learning MDPs with fixed and known dynamics, but adversarially changing loss functions. They show that when the transition kernel satisfies a ? mixing condition (see Section 3), there is an algorithm with regret bound O( T ). Yu and Mannor [9, 10] study a harder setting, where the transition dynamics may also change adversarially over time. 2 However, their regret bound scales with the amount of variation in the transition kernels and in the worst case may grow linearly with time. Recently, Neu et al. [11] give a no-regret algorithm for the episodic shortest path problem with adversarial losses but stochastic transition dynamics. 1.2 Our Contributions First, we study a general MDP problem with large (possibly continuous) state and action spaces and?adversarially changing dynamics and loss functions. We present an algorithm that guarantees O( T ) regret with respect to a suitably small (totally bounded) class of policies ? for this online MDP problem. The regret grows with the metric entropy of ?, so that if the comparison class is the set of all policies (that is, the algorithm must compete with the optimal fixed policy), it scales polynomially with the size of the state and action spaces. The above algorithm is efficient as long as the comparison class has polynomial size and we can compute expectations over sample paths for each policy. This result has several advantages over the results of [5, 6, 7]. First, the transition distributions and loss functions are chosen adversarially. Second, by designing an appropriate small class of comparison policies, the algorithm is efficient, even in the face of very large state and action spaces. Next, we present efficient no-regret algorithms for the episodic online shortest path problem for two cases: when the graphs and loss functions (edge weights) are chosen adversarially and the set of graphs is small; and when the graphs are chosen adversarially, but the loss is stochastic. Finally, we show that for the general adversarial online shortest path problem, designing an efficient no-regret algorithm is at least as hard as learning parity with noise. Since the online shortest path problem is a special case of online MDP problem, the hardness result is also applicable there.1 The noisy parity problem is widely believed to be computationally intractable, and has been used to design cryptographic schemes. Organization: In Section 3 we introduce an algorithm for MDP problems with adversarially chosen transition kernels and loss functions. Section 4 discusses how this algorithm can also be applied to the online episodic shortest path problem with adversarially varying graphs and loss functions and also considers the case of stochastic loss functions. Finally, in Section 4.2, we show the reduction from the adversarial online epsiodic shortest path problem to learning parity with noise. 2 Notations Let X ? Rn be a state space and A ? Rd be an action space. Let ?S be the space of probability distributions over a set S. Define a policy ? as a mapping ? : X ? ?A . We use ?(a|x) to denote the probability of choosing an action a in state x under policy ?. A random action under policy ? is denoted by ?(x). A transition probability kernel (or transition kernel) m is a mapping m : X ? A ? ?X . For finite X , let P (?, m) be the transition probability matrix of policy ? under transition kernel m. A loss function is a boundedP real-valued function over state and action spaces, ` : X ? A ? R. For a vector v, define P kvk1 = i |vi |. For a real-valued function f defined over X ? A, define kf k?,1 = maxx?X a?A |f (x, a)|. The inner product between two vectors v and w is denoted by hv, wi. 3 Online MDP Problems In this section, we study a general MDP problem with large state and action spaces. The adversary can change the dynamics and the loss functions, but is restricted to choose dynamics that satisfy a mixing condition. Assumption A1 Uniform Mixing There exists a constant ? > 0 such that for all distributions d and d0 over the state space, any deterministic policy ?, and any transition kernel m ? M , kdP (?, m) ? d0 P (?, m)k1 ? e?1/? kd ? d0 k1 . 1 There was an error in the proof of a claimed hardness result for the online adversarial MDP problem [8]; this claim has since been retracted [12, 13]. 3 p For all policies ? ? ?, w?,0 = 1. ? = min{ log |?| /T , 1/2}. Choose ?1 uniformly at random. for t := 1, 2, . . . , T do Learner takes the action at ? ?t (.|xt ) and adversary chooses mt and `t . Learner suffers loss `t (xt , at ) and observes mt and `t . Update state: xt+1 ? mt (.|xt , at ). ? For allP policies ?, w?,t = w?,t?1 (1 ? ?)E[`t (xt ,?)] . Wt = ??? w?,t . For any ?, p?,t+1 = w?,t /Wt . With probability ?t = w?t ,t /w?t ,t?1 choose the previous policy, ?t+1 = ?t , while with probability 1 ? ?t , choose ?t+1 based on the distribution p?,t+1 . end for Figure 1: OMDP: The Online Algorithm for Markov Decision Processes This assumption excludes deterministic MDPs that can be more difficult to deal with. As discussed by Neu et al. [14], if Assumption A1 holds for deterministic policies, then it holds for all policies. We propose an exponentially-weighted average algorithm for this problem. The algorithm, called OMDP and shown in Figure 1, maintains a distribution over the policy class, but changes its policy with a small probability. The main results of this section are the following regret bounds for the OMDP algorithm. The proofs can be found in Appendix A. Theorem 1. Let the loss functions selected by the adversary be bounded in [0, 1], and the transition kernels selected by the adversary satisfy Assumption A1. Then, for any policy ? ? ?, p E [RT (OMDP, ?)] ? (4 + 2? 2 ) T log |?| + log |?| . Corollary 2. Let ? be an arbitrary policy space, N () be the -covering number of the metric space (?, k.k?,1 ), and C() be an -cover. Assume that we run the OMDP algorithm on C(). Then, under the same assumptions as in Theorem 1, for any policy ? ? ?, p E [RT (OMDP, ?)] ? (4 + 2? 2 ) T log N () + log N () + ? T  . Remark 3. If we choose ? to be the space of deterministic policies p and X and A are finite spaces, from Theorem 1 we obtain that E [RT (OMDP, ?)] ? (4 + 2? 2 ) T |X | log |A| + |X | log |A|. This result, however, is not sufficient to show that the average regret with respect to the optimal stationary policy converges to zero. This is because, unlike in the standard MDP framework, the optimal stationary policy is not necessarily deterministic. Corollary 2 extends the result of Theorem 1 to continuous policy spaces. |A||X | In particular, if X and A are finite spaces and ? is the space of , qall policies, N () ? (|A|/) |A| so the expected regret satisfies E [RT (OMDP, ?)] ? (4+2? 2 ) T |A||X | log |A|  +|A||X | log  + p ? T . By the choice of  = T1 , we get that E [RT (OMDP, ?)] = O(? 2 T |A| |X | log(|A|T )). 3.1 Proof Sketch The main idea behind the design and the analysis of our algorithm is the following regret decomposition: RT (A, ?) = T X `t (xA t , at ) ? t=1 T X `t (x?t t , ?t ) + t=1 T X `t (x?t t , ?t ) ? t=1 T X `t (x?t , ?) , (1) t=1 where A is an online learning algorithm that generates a policy ?t at round t, xA t is the state at round t if we have followed the policies generated by algorithm A, and `(x, ?) = `(x, ?(x)). Let BT (A) = T X t=1 `t (xA t , at ) ? T X `t (x?t t , ?t ) , CT (A, ?) = t=1 T X t=1 4 `t (x?t t , ?t ) ? T X t=1 `t (x?t , ?) . Note that the choice of policies has no influence over future losses in CT (A, ?). Thus, CT (A, ?) can be bounded by a reduction to full information online learning algorithms. Also, notice that the competitor policy ? does not appear in BT (A). In fact, BT (A) depends only on the algorithm A. We will show that if the class of transition kernels satisfies Assumption A1 and algorithm A rarely changes its policies, then BT (A) can be bounded by a sublinear term. To be more precise, let ?t be the probability that algorithm A changes its policy at round t. We will require that there exists a constant D such that ? for any 1 ? t ? T , any sequence of models m1 , . . . , mt and loss functions `1 , . . . , `t , ?t ? D/ t. We would like to have a full information online learning algorithm that rarely changes its policy. The first candidate that we consider is the well-known Exponentially Weighted Average (EWA) algorithm [15, 16]. In our MDP problem, the EWA algorithm chooses a policy ? ? ? accord Pt?1 ing to distribution qt (?) ? exp ?? s=1 E [`s (x?s , ?)] for some ? > 0. The policies that this EWA algorithm generates most likely are different in consecutive rounds and thus, the EWA algorithm might change its policy frequently. However, a variant of EWA, called Shrinking Dartboard (SD) (Guelen et al. [17]), rarely changes its policy (see Lemma 8 in Appendix A). The OMDP algorithm is based on the SD algorithm. Note that the algorithm needs to know the number of rounds, T , in advance. Also note that we could use any rarely switching algorithm such as Follow the Lazy Leader of Kalai and Vempala [18] as the subroutine. 4 Adversarial Online Shortest Path Problem We consider the following adversarial online shortest path problem with changing graphs. The problem is a repeated game played between a decision-maker and an (oblivious) adversary over T rounds. At each round t the adversary presents a directed acyclic graph gt on n nodes to the decision maker, with L layers indexed by {1, . . . , L} and a special start and finish node. Each layer contains a fixed set of nodes and has connections only with the next layer. 2 The decision-maker must choose a path pt from the start to the finish node. Then, the adversary reveals weights across all the edges of the graph. The loss `t (gt , pt ) of the decision-maker is the weight along the path that the decision-maker took on that round. Denote by [k] the set {1, 2, . . . , k}. A policy is a mapping ? : [n] ? [n]. Each policy may be interpreted as giving a start to finish path. Suppose that the start node is s ? [n], then ?(i) gives the subsequent node. The path is interpreted as follows : if at a node v, the edge (v, ?(v)) exists then the next node is ?(v). Otherwise, the next node is an arbitrary (pre-determined) choice that is adjacent to v. We compete against the class of such policies for choosing the shortest path. Denote the class of such policies by ?. The regret of a decision-maker A with respect to a policy ? ? ? is defined as: PT PT RT (A, ?) = t=1 `t (gt , pt ) ? t=1 `t (gt , ?(gt )), where ?(gt ) is the path obtained by following the policy ? starting at the source node. Note that it is possible that there exists no policy that would result in an actual path that leads to the sink for some graph. In this case we say that the loss of the policy is infinite. Thus, there may be adversarially chosen sequences of graphs for which the regret of a decision-maker is not well-defined. This can be easily corrected by the adversary ensuring that the graph always has some fixed set of edges which result in a (possibly high loss) s ? f path. In fact, we show that the adversary can choose a sequence of graphs and loss functions that make this problem at least as hard as learning noisy parities. Learning noisy parities is a notoriously hard problem in computational learning theory. The best known algorithm runs in time 2O(n/ log(n)) [20] and the presumed hardness of this and related problems has been used for designing cryptographic protocols [21]. Interestingly, for the hardness result to hold, it is essential that the adversary have the ability to control both the sequence of graphs and losses. The problem is well-understood when the graphs are generated randomly and the losses are adversarial. Jaksch et al. [3] and Bartlett and Tewari [4] propose efficient algorithms for problems with stochastic losses.3 Neu et al. [22] extend these results to problems with adversarial loss functions. 2 As noted by Neu et al. [19], any directed acyclic graph can be transformed into a graph that satisfies our assumptions. 3 These algorithms are originally proposed for continuing problems, but we can use them in shortest path problems with small modifications. 5 One can also ask what happens in the case when the graphs are chosen by the adversary, but the weight of each edge is drawn at random according to a fixed stationary distribution. In this setting, we show a reduction to bandit linear optimization. Thus, in fact, that algorithm does not need to see the weights of all edges at the end of the round, but only needs to know the loss it suffered. Finally, we consider the case when both graphs and losses are chosen adversarially. Although the general problem is at least as hard as learning noisy parities, we give an efficient algorithm whose regret scales linearly with the number of different graphs. Thus, if the adversary is forced to choose graphs from some small set G, then we have an efficient algorithm for solving the problem. We note that in fact, our algorithm does not?need to see the graph gt at the beginning of the round, in which case an algorithm achieving O(|G| T ) may be trivially obtained. 4.1 Stochastic Loss Functions and Adversarial Graphs Consider the case when the weight of each edge is chosen from a fixed distribution. Then it is easy to see that the expected loss of any path is a fixed linear function of the expected weights vector. The set of available paths depends on the graph and it may change from time to time. This is an instance of stochastic linear bandit problem, for which efficient algorithms exist [23, 24, 25]. Theorem 4. Let us represent each path by a binary vector of length n(n ? 1)/2, such that the ith element is 1 only if the corresponding edge is present in the path. Assume that the learner suffers the loss of c(p) for choosing path p, where E [c(p)] = h`, pi and the loss vector ` ? Rn(n?1)/2 is fixed. Let Pt be the set of paths in a graph gt . Consider the C ONFIDENCE BALL1 algorithm of Dani et al. [24] applied to the shortest path problem with a changing action ? set Pt and the loss function `. Then the regret with respect to the best path in each round is Cn3 T for a problem-independent constant C. Pt?1 Let `bt be the least squares estimate of ` at round t, Vt = s=1 ps p> s be the covariance matrix, and Pt be the decision set at round t. The C ONFIDENCE B ALL algorithm constructs a high probability 1 o n 1/2 b norm-1 ball confidence set, Ct = ` : Vt (` ? `t ) ? ?t for an appropriate ?t , and chooses 1 an action pt according to pt = argmin`?Ct ,p?Pt h`, pi. Dani et al. [24] prove that the regret of the ? C ONFIDENCE BALL1 algorithm is bounded by O(m3/2 T ), where m is the dimensionality of the action set (in our case m = n(n ? 1)/2). The above optimization can be solved efficiently, because only 2n corners of Ct need to be evaluated. Note that the regret in Theorem 4 is with respect to the best path in each round, which is a stronger result than competing with a fixed policy. 4.2 Hardness Result In this section, we show that the setting when both the graphs and the losses are chosen by an adversary, the problem is at least as hard as the noisy parity problem. We consider the online agnostic parity learning problem. Recall that the class of parity function over {0, 1}n is the following: For S ? [n], PARS (x) = ?i?S xi , where ? denotes modulo 2 addition. The class is PARITIES = {PARS | S ? [n]}. In the online setting, the learning algorithm is given xt ? {0, 1}n , the learning algorithm then picks y?t ? {0, 1}, and then the true label y t is revealed. The learning algorithm suffers loss I(? y t 6= y t ). The regret of the learning algorithm with respect to PARITIES is defined PT PT y t 6= y t ) ? minPARS ?PARITIES t=1 I(PARS (xt ) 6= y t ). The goal is to as: Regret = t=1 I(? design a learning algorithm that runs in time polynomial in n, T and suffers regret O(poly(n)T 1?? ) for some constant ? > 0. It follows from prior work that online agnostic learning of parities is at least as hard as the offline version (see Littlestone [26], Kanade and Steinke [27]). As mentioned previously, the agnostic parity learning problem is notoriously difficult. Thus, it seems unlikely that a computationally efficient no-regret algorithm for this problem exists. Theorem 5. Suppose there is a no-regret algorithm for the online adversarial shortest path problem that runs in time poly(n, T ) and achieves regret O(poly(n)T 1?? ) for any constant ? > 0. Then there is a polynomial-time algorithm for online agnostic parity learning that achieves regret O(poly(n)T 1?? ). By the online to batch reduction, this would imply a polynomial time algorithm for agnostically learning parities. 6 1a 2a 2b 3a 3b 4a 4b 5a 5b 6a 6b y ? 1?y for t := 1, 2, . . . do Adversary chooses a graph gt ? G for l = 1, . . . , L do Initialize an EWA expert algorithm, E for s = 1, . . . , t ? 1 do if gs ? C(xt,l ) then Feed expert E with the value function Qs = Q?s ,gs ,cs end if end for Let ?t (.|xt,l ) be the distribution over actions of the expert E Take the action at,l ? ?t (.|xt,l ), suffer the loss ct (nt,l , at,l ), and move to the node nt,l+1 = gt (nt,l , at,l ) end for Learner observes the graph gt and the loss function ct Compute the value function Qt = Q?t ,gt ,ct for all nodes n0 ? [n] end for (a) (b) Figure 2: (a) Encoding the example (1, 0, 1, 0, 1) ? {0, 1}5 as a graph. (b) Improved Algorithm for the Online Shortest Path Problem. Proof. We first show how to map a point (x, y) to a graph and a loss function. Let (x, y) ? {0, 1}n ? {0, 1}. We define a graph, g(x) and a loss function `x,y associated with (x, y). Define a graph on 2n + 2 nodes ? named 1a , 2a , 2b , 3a , 3b , . . . , na , nb , (n + 1)a , (n + 1)b , ? in that order. Let E(x) denote the set of edges of g(x). The set E(x) contains the following edges: (i) If x1 = 1, both (1a , 2a ) and (1a , 2b ) are in E(x), else if x1 = 0, only (1a , 2a ) is present. (ii) For 1 < i ? n, if xi = 1, the edges (ia , (i + 1)a ), (ia , (i + 1)b ), (ib , (i + 1)a ), (ib , (i + 1)b ) are all present; if xi = 0 only the two edges (ia , (i + 1)a ) and (ib , (i + 1)b ) are present. (iii) The two edges ((n + 1)a , ?) and ((n + 1)b , ?) are always present. For the loss function, define the weights as follows. The weight of the edge ((n + 1)a , ?) is y; the weight of the edge ((n + 1)b , ?) is 1 ? y. The weights of all the remaining edges are set to 0. Figure 2(a) shows the encoding of the example (1, 0, 1, 0, 1) ? {0, 1}5 . Suppose an algorithm with the stated regret bound for the online shortest path problem exists, call it U. We will use this algorithm to solve the online parity learning problem. Let xt be an example received; then pass the graph g(xt ) to the algorithm U. The start vertex is 1a and the finish vertex is ?. Suppose the path pt chosen by U reaches ? using the edge ((n + 1)a , ?) then set y?t to be 0. Otherwise, choose y?t = 1. Thus, in effect we are using algorithm U as a meta-algorithm for the online agnostic parity learning problem. First, it is easy to check that the loss suffered by the meta-algorithm on the parity problem is exactly the same as the loss of U on the online shortest path problem. This follows directly from the definition of the losses on the edges. Next, we claim that for any S ? [n], there is a policy ?S that achieves the same loss (on the online shortest path problem) as the parity PARS does (on the parity learning problem). The policy is as follows: (i) From node ia , if i ? S and (ia , (i + 1)b ) ? E(g t ), go to (i + 1)b , otherwise go to (i + 1)a . (ii) From node ib , if i ? S and (ib , (i + 1)a ) ? E(g t ), go to (i + 1)a , otherwise go to (i + 1)b . (iii) Finally, from either (n + 1)a or (n + 1)b , just move to ?. We can think of the path pt as being in type a nodes or type b nodes. For each i ? S, such that xti = 1, the path pt switches types. Thus, if PARS (xt ) = 1, pt reaches ? via the edge ((n + 1)b , ?) and if PARS (xt ) = 0, pt reaches ? via the edge ((n + 1)a , ?). Recall that the loss function is 7 defined as follows: weight of the edge ((n + 1)a , ?) is y t , weight of the edge ((n + 1)b , ?) is 1 ? y t ; other edges have loss 0. Thus, the loss suffered by the policy ?S is 1 if PARS (xt ) 6= y t and 0 otherwise. This is exactly the loss of the parity function PARS on the agnostic parity learning problem. Thus, if the algorithm U has regret O(poly(n), T 1?? ), then the meta-algorithm for the online agnostic parity learning problem also has regret O(poly(n), T 1?? ). Remark 6. We observe that the online shortest path problem is a special case of online MDP learning. Thus, the above reduction also shows that, short of a major breakthrough, it is unlikely that there exists a computationally efficient algorithm for the fully adversarial online MDP problem. 4.3 Small Number of Graphs ? In this section, we design an efficient algorithm and prove a O(|G| T ) regret bound, where G is the set of graphs played by the adversary up to round T . The computational complexity of the algorithm is O(L2 t) at round t. The algorithm does not need to know the set G or |G|. This regret bound holds even if the graphs are revealed at the end of the rounds. Notice that ? if the graphs are shown at the beginning of the rounds, obtaining regret bounds that scale like O(|G| T ) is trivial; the learner only needs to run |G| copies of the MDP-E algorithm of Even-Dar et al. [12], one for each graph. Let n?t,l denote the node at layer l of round t if we run policy ?. Let ct (n0 , a) be the loss incurred for taking action a in node n0 at round t.4 We construct a new graph, called G, as follows: graph G also has a layered structure with the same number of layers, L. At each layer, we have a number of states that represent all possible observations that we might have upon arriving at that layer. Thus, a state at layer l has the form of x = (s, a0 , n1 , a1 , . . . , nl?1 , al?1 , nl ), where ni belongs to layer i and ai ? A. Let X be the set of states in G and Xl be the set of states in layer l of G. For (x, a) ? X ? A, let c(x, a) = c(n(x), a), where n(x) is the last node observed in state x. Let g(n0 , a) be the next 0 node P under graph g if we take action a in node n . Let g(x, a) = g(n(x), a). Let c(x, ?) = a ?(a|x)c(x, a). For a graph g and a loss function `, define the value functions by ?n0 ? [n], ?x, s.t. g ? C(x), Q?,g,c (n0 , ? 0 ) = Ea??0 (n0 ) [c(n0 , a) + Q?,g,c (g(n0 , a), ?)] , Q?,g,c (x, ? 0 ) = Q?,g,c (n(x), ? 0 ) , with Q?,g,c (f, a) = 0 for any ?, g, c, a where f is the finish node. Let Qt = Q?t ,gt ,ct denote the value function associated with policy ?t at time t. For x = (s, a0 , n1 , a1 , . . . , nl?1 , al?1 , nl ), define C(x) = {g ? G : n1 = g(s, a0 ), . . . , nl = g(nl?1 , al?1 )}, the set of graphs that are consistent with the state x. We can use the MDP-E algorithm to generate policies. The algorithm, however, is computationally expensive as it updates a large set of experts at each round. Notice that the number of states at stage l, |Xl |, can be exponential in the number of graphs. 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Hayes, and S. M. Kakade. Stochastic linear optimization under bandit feedback. In Rocco Servedio and Tong Zhang, editors, COLT, pages 355?366, 2008. [25] Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori, D?avid P?al, and Csaba Szepesv?ari. Improved algorithms for linear stochastic bandits. In NIPS, 2011. [26] Nick Littlestone. From on-line to batch learning. In COLT, pages 269?284, 1989. [27] Varun Kanade and Thomas Steinke. Learning hurdles for sleeping experts. In Proceedings of the 3rd Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science Conference, ITCS ?12, pages 11?18, 2012. 9
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Online Learning of Dynamic Parameters in Social Networks Shahin Shahrampour 1 Alexander Rakhlin 2 Ali Jadbabaie 1 2 Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, Department of Statistics University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA 1 {shahin,jadbabai}@seas.upenn.edu 2 [email protected] 1 Abstract This paper addresses the problem of online learning in a dynamic setting. We consider a social network in which each individual observes a private signal about the underlying state of the world and communicates with her neighbors at each time period. Unlike many existing approaches, the underlying state is dynamic, and evolves according to a geometric random walk. We view the scenario as an optimization problem where agents aim to learn the true state while suffering the smallest possible loss. Based on the decomposition of the global loss function, we introduce two update mechanisms, each of which generates an estimate of the true state. We establish a tight bound on the rate of change of the underlying state, under which individuals can track the parameter with a bounded variance. Then, we characterize explicit expressions for the steady state mean-square deviation(MSD) of the estimates from the truth, per individual. We observe that only one of the estimators recovers the optimal MSD, which underscores the impact of the objective function decomposition on the learning quality. Finally, we provide an upper bound on the regret of the proposed methods, measured as an average of errors in estimating the parameter in a finite time. 1 Introduction In recent years, distributed estimation, learning and prediction has attracted a considerable attention in wide variety of disciplines with applications ranging from sensor networks to social and economic networks [1?6]. In this broad class of problems, agents aim to learn the true value of a parameter often called the underlying state of the world. The state could represent a product, an opinion, a vote, or a quantity of interest in a sensor network. Each agent observes a private signal about the underlying state at each time period, and communicates with her neighbors to augment her imperfect observations. Despite the wealth of research in this area when the underlying state is fixed (see e.g. [1?3, 7]), often the state is subject to some change over time(e.g. the price of stocks) [8?11]. Therefore, it is more realistic to study models which allow the parameter of interest to vary. In the non-distributed context, such models have been studied in the classical literature on time-series prediction, and, more recently, in the literature on online learning under relaxed assumptions about the nature of sequences [12]. In this paper we aim to study the sequential prediction problem in the context of a social network and noisy feedback to agents. We consider a stochastic optimization framework to describe an online social learning problem when the underlying state of the world varies over time. Our motivation for the current study is the results of [8] and [9] where authors propose a social learning scheme in which the underlying state follows a simple random walk. However, unlike [8] and [9], we assume a geometric random walk evolution with an associated rate of change. This enables us to investigate the interplay of social learning, network structure, and the rate of state change, especially in the interesting case that the rate is 1 greater than unity. We then pose the social learning as an optimization problem in which individuals aim to suffer the smallest possible loss as they observe the stream of signals. Of particular relevance to this work is the work of Duchi et al. in [13] where the authors develop a distributed method based on dual averaging of sub-gradients to converge to the optimal solution. In this paper, we restrict our attention to quadratic loss functions regularized by a quadratic proximal function, but there is no fixed optimal solution as the underlying state is dynamic. In this direction, the key observation is the decomposition of the global loss function into local loss functions. We consider two decompositions for the global objective, each of which gives rise to a single-consensus-step belief update mechanism. The first method incorporates the averaged prior beliefs among neighbors with the new private observation, while the second one takes into account the observations in the neighborhood as well. In both scenarios, we establish that the estimates are eventually unbiased, and we characterize an explicit expression for the mean-square deviation(MSD) of the beliefs from the truth, per individual. Interestingly, this quantity relies on the whole spectrum of the communication matrix which exhibits the formidable role of the network structure in the asymptotic learning. We observe that the estimators outperform the upper bound provided for MSD in the previous work [8]. Furthermore, only one of the two proposed estimators can compete with the centralized optimal Kalman Filter [14] in certain circumstances. This fact underscores the dependence of optimality on decomposition of the global loss function. We further highlight the influence of connectivity on learning by quantifying the ratio of MSD for a complete versus a disconnected network. We see that this ratio is always less than unity and it can get arbitrarily close to zero under some constraints. Our next contribution is to provide an upper bound for regret of the proposed methods, defined as an average of errors in estimating the parameter up to a given time minus the long-run expected loss due to noise and dynamics alone. This finite-time regret analysis is based on the recently developed concentration inequalities for matrices and it complements the asymptotic statements about the behavior of MSD. Finally, we examine the trade-off between the network sparsity and learning quality in a microscopic level. Under mild technical constraints, we see that losing each connection has detrimental effect on learning as it monotonically increases the MSD. On the other hand, capturing agents communications with a graph, we introduce the notion of optimal edge as the edge whose addition has the most effect on learning in the sense of MSD reduction. We prove that such a friendship is likely to occur between a pair of individuals with high self-reliance that have the least common neighbors. 2 2.1 Preliminaries State and Observation Model We consider a network consisting of a finite number of agents V = {1, 2, ..., N }. The agents indexed by i ? V seek the underlying state of the world, xt ? R, which varies over time and evolves according to xt+1 = axt + rt , (1) where rt is a zero mean innovation, which is independent over time with finite variance E[rt2 ] = ?r2 , and a ? R is the expected rate of change of the state of the world, assumed to be available to all agents, and could potentially be greater than unity. We assume the initial state x0 is a finite random variable drawn independently by the nature. At time period t, each agent i receives a private signal yi,t ? R, which is a noisy version of xt , and can be described by the linear equation yi,t = xt + wi,t , (2) 2 2 where wi,t is a zero mean observation noise with finite variance E[wi,t ] = ?w , and it is assumed to be independent over time and agents, and uncorrelated to the innovation noise. Each agent i forms an estimate or a belief about the true value of xt at time t conforming to an update mechanism that will be discussed later. Much of the difficulty of this problem stems from the hardness of tracking a dynamic state with noisy observations, especially when |a| > 1, and communication mitigates the difficulty by virtue of reducing the effective noise. 2 2.2 Communication Structure Agents communicate with each other to update their beliefs about the underlying state of the world. The interaction between agents is captured by an undirected graph G = (V, E), where V is the set ?i = {j ? of agents, and if there is a link between agent i and agent j, then {i, j} ? E. We let N ? V : {i, j} ? E} be the set of neighbors of agent i, and Ni = Ni ? {i}. Each agent i can only ?i . We also let pii ? 0 communicate with her neighbors, and assigns a weight pij > 0 for any j ? N denote the self-reliance of agent i. Assumption 1. The communication matrix P = [pij ] is symmetric and doubly stochastic, i.e., it satisfies pij ? 0 , pij = pji , and ? pij = N ? pij = 1. j=1 j?Ni We further assume the eigenvalues of P are in descending order and satisfy ?1 < ?N (P ) ? ... ? ?2 (P ) < ?1 (P ) = 1. 2.3 Estimate Updates The goal of agents is to learn xt in a collaborative manner by making sequential predictions. From optimization perspective, this can be cast as a quest for online minimization of the separable, global, time-varying cost function ? ? N ? N ? N ? ?2 1 ? ? 1 ? 1 ? ? ? min ft (? x) = fi,t (? x) ? E yi,t ? x ? = fi,t (? x) ? pij fj,t (? x) , (3) x ??R N i=1 2 N i=1 j=1 at each time period t. One approach to tackle the stochastic learning problem formulated above is to employ distributed dual averaging regularized by a quadratic proximal function [13]. To this end, if agent i exploits f?i,t as the local loss function, she updates her belief as ? ? ? x ?i,t+1 = a pij x ?j,t + ?(yi,t ? x ?i,t ) , (4) ? ?? ? j?Ni ? ?? ? innovation update consensus update while using f?i,t as the local loss function results in the following update ? ? ? ? x ?i,t+1 = a pij x ?j,t + ?( pij yj,t ? x ?i,t ) , j?Ni ? ?? ? ? consensus update j?Ni ?? innovation update (5) ? where ? ? (0, 1] is a constant step size that agents place for their innovation update, and we refer to it as signal weight. Equations (4) and (5) are distinct, single-consensus-step estimators differing in the choice of the local loss function with (4) using only private observations while (5) averaging observations over the neighborhood. We analyze both class of estimators noting that one might expect (5) to perform better than (4) due to more information availability. Note that the choice of constant step size provides an insight on the interplay of persistent innovation and learning abilities of the network. We remark that agents can easily learn the fixed rate of change a by taking ratios of observations, and we assume that this has been already performed by the agents in the past. The case of a changing a is beyond the scope of the present paper. We also point out that the real-valued (rather than vector-valued) nature of the state is a simplification that forms a clean playground for the study of the effects of social learning, effects of friendships, and other properties of the problem. 2.4 Error Process Defining the local error processes ??i,t and ??i,t , at time t for agent i, as ??i,t ? x ?i,t ? xt and 3 ??i,t ? x ?i,t ? xt , and stacking the local errors in vectors ??t , ??t ? RN , respectively, such that ??t ? [??1,t , ..., ??N,t ]T and ??t ? [??1,t , ..., ??N,t ]T , (6) one can show that the aforementioned collective error processes could be described as a linear dynamical system. Lemma 2. Given Assumption 1, the collective error processes ??t and ??t defined in (6) satisfy ??t+1 = Q??t + s?t and ??t+1 = Q??t + s?t , (7) respectively, where (8) Q = a(P ? ?IN ), and and s?t = (?a)[w1,t , ..., wN,t ]T ? rt 1N with 1N being vector of all ones. s?t = (?a)P [w1,t , ..., wN,t ]T ? rt 1N , (9) Throughout the paper, we let ?(Q), denote the spectral radius of Q, which is equal to the largest singular value of Q due to symmetry. 3 Social Learning: Convergence of Beliefs and Regret Analysis In this section, we study the behavior of estimators (4) and (5) in the mean and mean-square sense, and we provide the regret analysis. In the following proposition, we establish a tight bound for a, under which agents can achieve asymptotically unbiased estimates using proper signal weight. Proposition 3 (Unbiased Estimates). Given the network G with corresponding communication matrix P satisfying Assumption 1, the rate of change of the social network in (4) and (5) must respect the constraint 2 |a| < , 1 ? ?N (P ) to allow agents to form asymptotically unbiased estimates of the underlying state. Proposition 3 determines the trade-off between the rate of change and the network structure. In other words, changing less than the rate given in the statement of the proposition, individuals can always track xt with bounded variance by selecting an appropriate signal weight. However, the proposition does not make any statement on the learning quality. To capture that, we define the steady state Mean Square Deviation(MSD) of the network from the truth as follows. Definition 4 ((Steady State-)Mean Square Deviation). Given the network G with a rate of change which allows unbiased estimation, the steady state of the error processes in (7) is defined as follows ? ? lim E[??t ??T ] and ? ? ? lim E[??t ??T ]. ? t?? t t?? t Hence, the (Steady State-)Mean Square Deviation of the network is the deviation from the truth in the mean-square sense, per individual, and it is defined as ? ? ? ? 1 Tr(?) ? ? 1 Tr(?). MSD and MSD N N Theorem 5 (MSD). Given the error processes (7) with ?(Q) < 1, the steady state MSD for (4) and (5) is a function of the communication matrix P , and the signal weight ? as follows ? M SD (P, ?) ? M SD (P, ?), (10) ? ? MSD(P, ?) = RM SD (?) + W MSD(P, ?) = RM SD (?) + W where RM SD (?) ? and 1? ?r2 2 a (1 ? ?)2 , (11) N N 2 2 2 ? ? a2 ? 2 ? w ?i (P ) a2 ? 2 ? w ? M SD (P, ?) ? 1 ? M SD (P, ?) ? 1 W and W . (12) 2 2 2 N i=1 1 ? a (?i (P ) ? ?) N i=1 1 ? a (?i (P ) ? ?)2 4 Theorem 5 shows that the steady state MSD is governed by all eigenvalues of P contributing to WM SD pertaining to the observation noise, while RM SD is the penalty incurred due to the innovation noise. Moreover, (5) outperforms (4) due to richer information diffusion, which stresses the importance of global loss function decomposition. One might advance a conjecture that a complete network, where all individuals can communicate with each other, achieves a lower steady state MSD in the learning process since it provides the most information diffusion among other networks. This intuitive idea is discussed in the following corollary beside a few examples. Corollary 6. Denoting the complete, star, and cycle graphs on N vertices by KN , SN , and CN , respectively, and denoting their corresponding Laplacians by LKN , LSN , and LCN , under conditions of Theorem 5, (a) For P = I ? 1?? N LK N , we have 2 ? KN = RM SD (?) + a2 ?2 ?w lim MSD . (13) N ?? (b) For P = I ? 1?? N L SN , we have ? SN = RM SD (?) + lim MSD N ?? 2 a 2 ? 2 ?w . 1 ? a2 (1 ? ?)2 (14) (c) For P = I ? ?LCN , where ? must preserve unbiasedness, we have ? 2? 2 a 2 ? 2 ?w d? ? lim MSDCN = RM SD (?) + . 2 2 N ?? 1 ? a (1 ? ?(2 ? 2 cos(? )) ? ?) 2? 0 (d) For P = I ? 1 N LK N , (15) we have ? KN = RM SD (?). lim MSD (16) N ?? Proof. Noting that the spectrum of LKN , LSN and LCN are, respectively [15], {?N = 0, ?N ?1 = N ?1 N, ..., ?1 = N }, {?N = 0, ?N ?1 = 1, ..., ?2 = 1, ?1 = N }, and {?i = 2 ? 2 cos( 2?i N )}i=0 , substituting each case in (10), and taking the limit over N , the proof follows immediately. To study the effect of communication let us consider the estimator (4). Under purview of Theorem 5 and Corollary 6, the ratio of the steady state MSD for a complete network (13) versus a fully disconnected network(P = IN ) can be computed as lim N ?? ? K MSD N ? disconnected MSD = 2 ?r2 + a2 ?2 ?w (1 ? a2 (1 ? ?)2 ) ? 1 ? a2 (1 ? ?)2 , 2 2 ?r + a 2 ? 2 ?w 2 for ?r2 ? ?w . The ratio above can get arbitrary close to zero which, indeed, highlights the influence of communication on the learning quality. We now consider Kalman Filter(KF) [14] as the optimal centralized counterpart of (5). It is wellknown that the steady state KF satisfies a Riccati equation, and when the parameter of interest is scalar, the Riccati equation simplifies to a quadratic with the positive root ? 2 2 2 ? ? 2 + N ? 2 )2 + 4N ? 2 ? 2 a 2 ?w ? ?w + N ?r2 + (a2 ?w w r w r ?KF = . 2N Therefore, comparing with the complete graph (16), we have lim ?KF = ?r2 ? N ?? 1? ?r2 2 a (1 ? ?)2 , and the upper bound can be made tight by choosing ? = 1 for |a| < we should choose an ? < 1 to preserve unbiasedness as well. 5 1 |?N (P )?1| . If |a| ? 1 |?N (P )?1| On the other hand, to evaluate the performance of estimator (4), we consider the upper bound 2 ?r2 + ?2 ?w , (17) ? 2 derived in [8], for a = 1 via a distributed estimation scheme. For simplicity, we assume ?w = ?r2 = 2 ? , and let ? in (15) be any diminishing function of N . Optimizing (13), (14), (15), and (17) over ?, we obtain ? K ? 1.55? 2 < lim MSD ? S = lim MSD ? C ? 1.62? 2 < MSDBound = 2? 2 , lim MSD MSDBound = N ?? N N ?? N N ?? N which suggests a noticeable improvement in learning even in the star and cycle networks where the number of individuals and connections are in the same order. Regret Analysis We now turn to finite-time regret analysis of our methods. The average loss of all agents in predicting the state, up until time T , is T N T 1? 1 ? 1? 1 (? xi,t ? xt )2 = Tr(??t ??tT ) . T t=1 N i=1 T t=1 N As motivated earlier, it is not possible, in general, to drive this average loss to zero, and we need to subtract off the limit. We thus define regret as ? ? T T T ? ? 1? 1 1 1 1 1 T T ? = Tr ? , RT ? Tr(??t ??t ) ? Tr(?) ??t ?? ? ? T t=1 N T t=1 N N T t=1 t ? is from Definition 4. We then have for the spectral norm ? ? ? that where ? ? ? T ?1 ? ? ? ? RT ? ? ?t ?tT ? ?? , ?T ? (18) t=1 where we dropped the distinguishing notation between the two estimators since the analysis works for both of them. We, first, state a technical lemma from [16] that we invoke later for bounding the quantity RT . For simplicity, we assume that magnitudes of both innovation and observation noise are bounded. Lemma 7. Let {st }Tt=1 be an independent family of vector valued random variables, and let H be a function that maps T variables to a self-adjoint matrix of dimension N . Consider a sequence {At }Tt=1 of fixed self-adjoint matrices that satisfy ? ?2 H(?1 , ..., ?t , ..., ?T ) ? H(?1 , ..., ?t? , ..., ?T ) ? A2t , where ?i and ?i? range over all possible values of si for each index i. Letting Var = ? for all c ? 0, we have ? ? ? ? 2 ? ? P H(s1 , ..., sT ) ? E[H(s1 , ..., sT )] ? c ? N e?c /8Var . ?T t=1 A2t ?, Theorem 8. Under conditions of Theorem 5 together with boundedness of noise maxt?T ?st ? ? s for some s > 0, the regret function defined in (18) satisfies ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2 2 2 8s 2 log N? 1 ??0 ? 1 2s??0 ? 1 s 1 ? RT ? + + + , ? ?2 ? ?2 T 1 ? ?2 (Q) T T T (1 ? ?(Q))2 1 ? ?(Q) 1 ? ?2 (Q) (19) with probability at least 1 ? ?. We mention that results that are similar in spirit have been studied for general unbounded stationary ergodic time series in [17?19] by employing techniques from the online learning literature. On the other hand, our problem has the network structure and the specific evolution of the hidden state, not present in the above works. 6 4 The Impact of New Friendships on Social Learning In the social learning model we proposed, agents are cooperative and they aim to accomplish a global objective. In this direction, the network structure contributes substantially to the learning process. In this section, we restrict our attention to estimator (5), and characterize the intuitive idea that making(losing) friendships can influence the quality of learning in the sense of decreasing(increasing) the steady state MSD of the network. To commence, letting ei denote the i-th unit vector in the standard basis of RN , we exploit the negative semi-definite, edge function matrix ?P (i, j) ? ?(ei ? ej )(ei ? ej )T , (20) P? ? P + ??P (i, j), (21) for edge addition(removal) to(from) the graph. Essentially, if there is no connection between agents i and j, for ? < min{pii , pjj }, corresponds to a new communication matrix adding the edge {i, j} with a weight ? to the network G, and subtracting ? from self-reliance of agents i and j. Proposition 9. Let G ? be the network resulted by removing the bidirectional edge {i, j} with the weight ? from the network G, so P?? and P denote the communication matrices associated to G ? and G, respectively. Given Assumption 1, for a fixed signal weight ? the following relationship holds ? ? MSD(P, ?) ? MSD(P (22) ?? , ?), as long as P is positive semi-definite, and |a| < 1 |?| . Under a mild technical assumption, Proposition 9 suggests that losing connections monotonically increases the MSD, and individuals tend to maintain their friendships to obtain a lower MSD as a global objective. However, this does not elaborate on the existence of individuals with whom losing or making connections could have an immense impact on learning. We bring this concept to light in the following proposition with finding a so-called optimal edge which provides the most MSD reduction, in case it is added to the network graph. 1 Proposition 10. Given Assumption 1, a positive semi-definite P , and |a| < |?| , to find the optimal edge with a pre-assigned weight ? ? 1 to add to the network G, we need to solve the following optimization problem ? ?? N ? ? zk (i, j) 2(1 ? ?2 a2 )?k (P ) + 2a2 ??2k (P ) min hk (i, j) ? , (23) ? ?2 {i,j}?E / 1 ? a2 (?k (P ) ? ?)2 k=1 where zk (i, j) ? (vkT ?P (i, j)vk )?, (24) and {vk }N k=1 are the right eigenvectors of P . In addition, letting ?max = maxk>1 |?k (P ) ? ?|, ? ? N ? ?2? (1 ? ?2 a2 )(pii + pjj ) + a2 ?([P 2 ]ii + [P 2 ]jj ? 2[P 2 ]ij ) min hk (i, j) ? min . ? ?2 2 {i,j}?E / {i,j}?E / 1 ? a2 ?max k=1 (25) Proof. Representing the first order approximation of ?k (P? ) using definition of zk (i, j) in (24), we have ?k (P? ) ? ?k (P ) + zk (i, j) for ? ? 1. Based on Theorem 5, we now derive ?? ? N ? ? ?k (P? ) ? ?k (P ) (1 ? ?2 a2 )(?k (P? ) + ?k (P )) + 2a2 ??k (P )?k (P? ) ? ?? ? 1 ? a2 (?k (P ) ? ?)2 1 ? a2 (?k (P? ) ? ?)2 k=1 ? ? N ? zk (i, j) 2(1 ? ?2 a2 )?k (P ) + 2a2 ??2k (P ) + (1 ? ?2 a2 + 2a2 ??k (P ))zk (i, j) ? ?? ? ? 1 ? a2 (?k (P ) ? ?)2 1 ? a2 (?k (P ) ? ? + zk (i, j))2 k=1 ? ? N ? zk (i, j) 2(1 ? ?2 a2 )?k (P ) + 2a2 ??2k (P ) = + O(?2 ), ? ?2 1 ? a2 (?k (P ) ? ?)2 k=1 ? ? MSD(P ? , ?) ? MSD(P, ?) ? 7 ? ? noting that zk (i, j) is O(?) from the definition (24). Minimizing MSD(P ? , ?) ? MSD(P, ?) is, hence, equivalent to optimization (23) when ? ? 1. Taking into account that P is positive semi? definite, zk (i, j) ? 0 for k ? 2, and v1 = 1N / N which implies z1 (i, j) = 0, we proceed to the lower bound proof using the definition of hk (i, j) and ?max in the statement of the proposition, as follows ? ? N N ? ? zk (i, j) 2(1 ? ?2 a2 )?k (P ) + 2a2 ??2k (P ) hk (i, j) = ? ?2 1 ? a2 (?k (P ) ? ?)2 k=1 k=2 ?? 1 2 1 ? a2 ?max ?2 N ? k=2 ? ? zk (i, j) 2(1 ? ?2 a2 )?k (P ) + 2a2 ??2k (P ) . Substituting zk (i, j) from (24) to above, we have ?? ? N N ? ? T ?? ? 2? 2 2 2 2 hk (i, j) ? ? v ?P (i, j)v (1 ? ? a )? (P ) + a ?? (P ) ?2 k k k k 2 1 ? a2 ?max k=1 k=1 ? ? N ? ? ? T 2? 2 2 2 2 =? Tr ?P (i, j) (1 ? ? a )? (P ) + a ?? (P ) v v ?2 k k k k 2 1 ? a2 ?max k=1 ? ? ? ? 2? 2 2 2 2 . =? ?2 Tr ?P (i, j) (1 ? ? a )P + a ?P 2 1 ? a2 ?max Using the facts that Tr(?P (i, j)P ) = ?pii ? pjj + 2pij and Tr(?P (i, j)P 2 ) = ?[P 2 ]ii ? [P 2 ]jj + 2[P 2 ]ij according to definition of ?P (i, j) in (20), and pij = 0 since we are adding a non-existent edge {i, j}, the lower bound (25) is derived. Beside posing the optimal edge problem as an optimization, Proposition 10 also provides an upper bound for the best improvement that making a friendship brings to the network. In view of (25), forming a connection between two agents with more self-reliance and less common neighbors, minimizes the lower bound, which offers the most maneuver for MSD reduction. 5 Conclusion We studied a distributed online learning problem over a social network. The goal of agents is to estimate the underlying state of the world which follows a geometric random walk. Each individual receives a noisy signal about the underlying state at each time period, so she communicates with her neighbors to recover the true state. We viewed the problem with an optimization lens where agents want to minimize a global loss function in a collaborative manner. To estimate the true state, we proposed two methodologies derived from a different decomposition of the global objective. Given the structure of the network, we provided a tight upper bound on the rate of change of the parameter which allows agents to follow the state with a bounded variance. Moreover, we computed the averaged, steady state, mean-square deviation of the estimates from the true state. The key observation was optimality of one of the estimators indicating the dependence of learning quality on the decomposition. Furthermore, defining the regret as the average of errors in the process of learning during a finite time ? T , we demonstrated that the regret function of the proposed algorithms decays with a rate O(1/ T ). Finally, under mild technical assumptions, we characterized the influence of network pattern on learning by observing that each connection brings a monotonic decrease in the MSD. Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge the support of AFOSR MURI CHASE, ONR BRC Program on Decentralized, Online Optimization, NSF under grants CAREER DMS-0954737 and CCF-1116928, as well as Dean?s Research Fund. 8 References [1] M. H. DeGroot, ?Reaching a consensus,? Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 69, no. 345, pp. 118?121, 1974. [2] A. Jadbabaie, P. Molavi, A. Sandroni, and A. Tahbaz-Salehi, ?Non-bayesian social learning,? Games and Economic Behavior, vol. 76, no. 1, pp. 210?225, 2012. [3] E. Mossel and O. Tamuz, ?Efficient bayesian learning in social networks with gaussian estimators,? arXiv preprint arXiv:1002.0747, 2010. [4] O. Dekel, R. Gilad-Bachrach, O. Shamir, and L. Xiao, ?Optimal distributed online prediction using mini-batches,? The Journal of Machine Learning Research, vol. 13, pp. 165?202, 2012. [5] L. Xiao, S. Boyd, and S. Lall, ?A scheme for robust distributed sensor fusion based on average consensus,? in Fourth International Symposium on Information Processing in Sensor Networks. IEEE, 2005, pp. 63?70. [6] S. Kar, J. M. Moura, and K. Ramanan, ?Distributed parameter estimation in sensor networks: Nonlinear observation models and imperfect communication,? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 58, no. 6, pp. 3575?3605, 2012. [7] S. Shahrampour and A. Jadbabaie, ?Exponentially fast parameter estimation in networks using distributed dual averaging,? arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.2350, 2013. [8] D. Acemoglu, A. Nedic, and A. Ozdaglar, ?Convergence of rule-of-thumb learning rules in social networks,? in 47th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2008, pp. 1714?1720. [9] R. M. Frongillo, G. Schoenebeck, and O. Tamuz, ?Social learning in a changing world,? in Internet and Network Economics. Springer, 2011, pp. 146?157. [10] U. A. Khan, S. Kar, A. Jadbabaie, and J. M. Moura, ?On connectivity, observability, and stability in distributed estimation,? in 49th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2010, pp. 6639?6644. [11] R. Olfati-Saber, ?Distributed kalman filtering for sensor networks,? in 46th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2007, pp. 5492?5498. [12] N. Cesa-Bianchi, Prediction, learning, and games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [13] J. C. Duchi, A. Agarwal, and M. J. Wainwright, ?Dual averaging for distributed optimization: convergence analysis and network scaling,? IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, vol. 57, no. 3, pp. 592?606, 2012. [14] R. E. Kalman et al., ?A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems,? Journal of basic Engineering, vol. 82, no. 1, pp. 35?45, 1960. [15] M. Mesbahi and M. Egerstedt, Graph theoretic methods in multiagent networks. University Press, 2010. Princeton [16] J. A. Tropp, ?User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices,? Foundations of Computational Mathematics, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 389?434, 2012. [17] G. Biau, K. Bleakley, L. Gy?orfi, and G. Ottucs?ak, ?Nonparametric sequential prediction of time series,? Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 297?317, 2010. [18] L. Gyorfi and G. Ottucsak, ?Sequential prediction of unbounded stationary time series,? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 53, no. 5, pp. 1866?1872, 2007. [19] L. Gy?orfi, G. Lugosi et al., Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series. Springer, 2000. 9
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Modeling Overlapping Communities with Node Popularities Prem Gopalan1 , Chong Wang2 , and David M. Blei1 1 Department of Computer Science, Princeton University, {pgopalan,blei}@cs.princeton.edu 2 Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, {chongw}@cs.cmu.edu Abstract We develop a probabilistic approach for accurate network modeling using node popularities within the framework of the mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel (MMSB). Our model integrates two basic properties of nodes in social networks: homophily and preferential connection to popular nodes. We develop a scalable algorithm for posterior inference, based on a novel nonconjugate variant of stochastic variational inference. We evaluate the link prediction accuracy of our algorithm on nine real-world networks with up to 60,000 nodes, and on simulated networks with degree distributions that follow a power law. We demonstrate that the AMP predicts significantly better than the MMSB. 1 Introduction Social network analysis is vital to understanding and predicting interactions between network entities [6, 19, 21]. Examples of such networks include online social networks, collaboration networks and hyperlinked blogs. A central problem in social network analysis is to identify hidden community structures and node properties that can best explain the network data and predict connections [19]. Two node properties underlie the most successful models that explain how network connections are generated. The first property is popularity. This is the basis for preferential attachment [12], according to which nodes preferentially connect to popular nodes. The resulting degree distributions from this process are known to satisfy empirically observed properties such as power laws [24]. The second property that underlies many network models is homophily or similarity, according to which nodes with similar observed or unobserved attributes are more likely to connect to each other. To best explain social network data, a probabilistic model must capture these competing node properties. Recent theoretical work [24] has argued that optimizing the trade-offs between popularity and similarity best explains the evolution of many real networks. It is intuitive that combining both notions of attractiveness, i.e., popularity and similarity, is essential to explain how networks are generated. For example, on the Internet a user?s web page may link to another user due to a common interest in skydiving. The same user?s page may also link to popular web pages such as Google.com. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic model of networks that captures both popularity and homophily. To capture homophily, our model is built on the mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel (MMSB) [2], a community detection model that allows nodes to belong to multiple communities. (For example, a member of a large social network might belong to overlapping communities of neighbors, co-workers, and school friends.) The MMSB provides better fits to real network data than single community models [23, 27], but cannot account for node popularities. Specifically, we extend the assortative MMSB [9] to incorporate per-community node popularity. We develop a scalable algorithm for posterior inference, based on a novel nonconjugate variant of stochastic variational inference [11]. We demonstrate that our model predicts significantly better 1 NETSCIENCE COLLABORATION NETWORK POLITICAL BLOG NETWORK AMP AMP MMSB NEWMAN, M JEONG, H SOLE, R BARABASI, A PASTORSATORRAS, R HOLME, P Figure 1: We visualize the discovered community structure and node popularities in a giant component of the netscience collaboration network [22] (Left). Each link denotes a collaboration between two authors, colored by the posterior estimate of its community assignment. Each author node is sized by its estimated posterior popularity and colored by its dominant research community. The network is visualized using the FructermanReingold algorithm [7]. Following [14], we show an example where incorporating node popularities helps in accurately identifying communities (Right). The division of the political blog network [1] discovered by the AMP corresponds closely to the liberal and conservative blogs identified in [1]; the MMSB has difficulty in delineating these groups. than the stochastic variational inference algorithm for the MMSB [9] on nine large real-world networks. Further, using simulated networks, we show that node popularities are essential for predictive accuracy in the presence of power-law distributed node degrees. Related work. There have been several research efforts to incorporate popularity into network models. Karrer et al. [14] proposed the degree-corrected blockmodel that extends the classic stochastic blockmodels [23] to incorporate node popularities. Krivitsky et al. [16] proposed the latent cluster random effects model that extends the latent space model [10] to include node popularities. Both models capture node similarity and popularity, but assume that unobserved similarity arises from each node participating in a single community. Finally, the Poisson community model [4] is a probabilistic model of overlapping communities that implicitly captures degree-corrected mixedmemberships. However, the standard EM inference under this model drives many of the per-node community parameters to zero, which makes it ineffective for prediction or model metrics based on prediction (e.g., to select the number of communities). 2 Modeling node popularity and similarity The assortative mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel (MMSB) [9] treats the links or non-links yab of a network as arising from interactions between nodes a and b. Each node a is associated with community memberships ?a , a distribution over communities. The probability that two nodes are linked is governed by the similarity of their community memberships and the strength of their shared communities. Given the communities of a pair of nodes, the link indicators yab are independent. We draw yab repeatedly by choosing a community assignment (za?b , za?b ) for a pair of nodes (a, b), and drawing a binary value from a community distribution. Specifically, the conditional probability of a link in MMSB is PK PK p(yab = 1|za?b,i , za?b,j , ?) = i=1 j=1 za?b,i za?b,j ?ij , where ? is the blockmodel matrix of community strength parameters to be estimated. In the assortative MMSB [9], the non-diagonal entries of the blockmodel matrix are set close to 0. This captures node similarity in community memberships?if two nodes are linked, it is likely that the latent community indicators were the same. 2 In the proposed model, assortative MMSB with node popularities, or AMP, we introduce latent variables ?a to capture the popularity of each node a, i.e., its propensity to attract links independent of its community memberships. We capture the effect of node popularity and community similarity on link generation using a logit model PK k logit (p(yab = 1|za?b , za?b , ?, ?)) ? ?a + ?b + k=1 ?ab ?k , (1) k k where we define indicators ?ab = za?b,k za?b,k . The indicator ?ab is one if both nodes assume the same community k. Eq. 1 is a log-linear model [20]. In log-linear models, the random component, i.e., the expected probability of a link, has a multiplicative dependency on the systematic components, i.e., the covariates. This model is also similar in the spirit of the random effects model [10]?the node-specific PK k effect ?a captures the popularity of individual nodes while the k=1 ?ab ?k term captures the interactions through latent communities. Notice that we can easily extend the predictor in Eq. 1 to include observed node covariates, if any. We now define a hierarchical generative process for the observed link or non-link under the AMP: 1. Draw K community strengths ?k ? N (?0 , ?02 ). 2. For each node a, (a) Draw community memberships ?a ? Dirichlet(?). (b) Draw popularity ?a ? N (0, ?12 ). 3. For each pair of nodes a and b, (a) Draw interaction indicator za?b ? ?a . (b) Draw interaction indicator za?b ? ?b . (c) Draw the probability of a link yab |za?b , za?b , ?, ? ? logit?1 (za?b , za?b , ?, ?). Under the AMP, the similarities between the nodes? community memberships and their respective popularities compete to explain the observations. We can make AMP simpler by replacing the vector of K latent community strengths ? with a single community strength ?. In ?4, we demonstrate that this simpler model gives good predictive performance on small networks. We analyze data with the AMP via the posterior distribution over the latent variables p(?1:N , ?1:N , z, ?1:K |y, ?, ?0 , ?02 , ?12 ), where ?1:N represents the node popularities, and the posterior over ?1:N represents the community memberships of the nodes. With an estimate of this latent structure, we can characterize the network in many useful ways. Figure 1 gives an example. This is a subgraph of the netscience collaboration network [22] with N = 1460 nodes. We analyzed this network with K = 100 communities, using the algorithm from ?3. This results in posterior estimates of the community memberships and popularities for each node and posterior estimates of the community assignments for each link. With these estimates, we visualized the discovered community structure and the popular authors. In general, with an estimate of this latent structure, we can study individual links, characterizing the extent to which they occur due to similarity between nodes and the extent to which they are an artifact of the popularity of the nodes. 3 A stochastic gradient algorithm for nonconjugate variational inference Our goal is to compute the posterior distribution p(?1:N , ?1:N , z, ?1:K |y, ?, ?0 ?02 , ?12 ). Exact inference is intractable; we use variational inference [13]. Traditionally, variational inference is a coordinate ascent algorithm. However, the AMP presents two challenges. First, in variational inference the coordinate updates are available in closed form only when all the nodes in the graphical model satisfy conditional conjugacy. The AMP is not conditionally conjugate. To see this, note that the Gaussian priors on the popularity ? and the community strengths ? are not conjugate to the conditional likelihood of the data. Second, coordinate ascent algorithms iterate over all the O(N 2 ) node pairs making inference intractable for large networks. 3 We address these challenges by deriving a stochastic gradient algorithm that optimizes a tractable lower bound of the variational objective [11]. Our algorithm avoids the O(N 2 ) computational cost per iteration by subsampling a ?mini-batch? of random nodes and a subset of their interactions in each iteration [9]. 3.1 The variational objective In variational inference, we define a family of distributions over the hidden variables q(?, ?, ?, z) and find the member of that family that is closest to the true posterior. We use the mean-field family, with the following variational distributions: q(za?b = i, za?b = j) = ?ij ab ; q(?k ) = N (?k ; ?k , ??2 ); q(?n ) = Dirichlet(?n ; ?n ); q(?n ) = N (?n ; ?n , ??2 ). (2) The posterior over the joint distribution of link community assignments per node pair (a, b) is parameterized by the per-interaction memberships ?ab 1 , the community memberships by ?, the community strength distributions by ? and the popularity distributions by ?. Minimizing the KL divergence between q and the true posterior is equivalent to optimizing an evidence lower bound (ELBO) L, a bound on the log likelihood of the observations. We obtain this bound by applying Jensen?s inequality [13] to the data likelihood. The ELBO is P P L = n Eq [log p(?n |?)] ? n Eq [log q(?n |?n )] P P + n Eq [log p(?n |?12 )] ? n Eq [log q(?n |?n , ??2 )] P P + k Eq [log p(?k |?0 , ?02 )] ? k Eq [log q(?k |?k , ??2 )] P + a,b Eq [log p(za?b |?a )] + Eq [log p(za?b |?b )] ? Eq [log q(za?b , za?b |?ab )] P + a,b Eq [log p(yab |za?b , za?b , ?, ?)]. (3) Notice that the first three lines in Eq. 3 contains summations over communities and nodes; we call these global terms. They relate to the global parameters which are (?, ?, ?). The remaining lines contain summations over all node pairs; we call these local terms. They relate to the local parameters which are the ?ab . The distinction between the global and local parameters is important?the updates to global parameters depends on all (or many) local parameters, while the updates to local parameters for a pair of nodes only depends on the relevant global and local parameters in that context. Estimating the global variational parameters is a challenging computational problem. Coordinate ascent inference must consider each pair of nodes at each iteration, but even a single pass through the O(N 2 ) node pairs can be prohibitive. Previous work [9] has taken advantage of conditional conjugacy of the MMSB to develop fast stochastic variational inference algorithms. Unlike the MMSB, the AMP is not conditionally conjugate. Nevertheless, by carefully manipulating the variational objective, we can develop a scalable stochastic variational inference algorithm for the AMP. 3.2 Lower bounding the variational objective To optimize the ELBO with respect to the local and global parameters we need its derivatives. The data likelihood terms in the ELBO can be written as Eq [log p(yab |za?b , za?b , ?, ?)] = yab Eq [xab ] ? Eq [log(1 + exp(xab ))], (4) PK k where we define xab ? ?a + ?b + k=1 ?k ?ab . The terms in Eq. 4 cannot be expanded analytically. To address this issue, we further lower bound ?Eq [log(1+exp(xab ))] using Jensen?s inequality [13], ?Eq [log(1 + exp(xab ))] ? ? log[Eq (1 + exp(xab ))] = ? log[1 + Eq [exp(?a + ?b + PK k=1 k ?k ?ab )]] = ? log[1 + exp(?a + ??2 /2) exp(?b + ??2 /2)sab ], 1 Following [15], we use a structured mean-field assumption. 4 (5) Algorithm 1 The stochastic AMP algorithm 1: Initialize variational parameters. See ?3.5. 2: while convergence criteria is not met do 3: Sample a mini-batch S of nodes. Let P be the set of node pairs in S. 4: local step 5: Optimize ?ab ?(a, b) ? P using Eq. 11 and Eq. 12. 6: global step 7: Update memberships ?a , for each node a ? S, using stochastic natural gradients in Eq. 6. 8: Update popularities ?a , for each node a ? S using stochastic gradients in Eq. 7. 9: Update community strengths ? using stochastic gradients in Eq. 9. 10: Set ?a (t) = (?0 + ta )?? ; ta ? ta + 1, for each node a ? S. 11: Set ?0 (t) = (?0 + t)?? ; t ? t + 1. 12: end while PK PK kk 2 kk where we define sab ? k=1 ?ab exp{?k + ?? /2} + (1 ? k=1 ?ab ). In simplifying Eq. 5, we have used that q(?n ) is a Gaussian. Using the mean of a log-normal distribution, we have Eq [exp(?n )] = exp(?n + ??2 /2). A similar substitution applies for the terms involving ?k in Eq. 5. We substitute Eq. 5 in Eq. 3 to obtain a tractable lower bound L0 of the ELBO L in Eq. 3. This allows us to develop a coordinate ascent algorithm that iteratively updates the local and global parameters to optimize this lower bound on the ELBO. 3.3 The global step We optimize the ELBO with respect to the global variational parameters using stochastic gradient ascent. Stochastic gradient algorithms follow noisy estimates of the gradient with a decreasing stepsize. If the expectation of the noisy gradient equals to the gradient and if the step-size decreases according to a certain schedule, then the algorithm converges to a local optimum [26]. Subsampling the data to form noisy gradients scales inference as we avoid the expensive all-pairs sums in Eq. 3. The global step updates the global community memberships ?, the global popularity parameters ? and the global community strength parameters ? with a stochastic gradient of the lower bound on the ELBO L0 . In [9], the authors update community memberships of all nodes after each iteration by obtaining the natural gradients of the ELBO 2 with respect to the vector ? of dimension N ? K. We use natural gradients for the memberships too, but use distinct stochastic optimizations for the memberships and popularity parameters of each node and maintain a separate learning rate for each node. This restricts the per-iteration updates to nodes in the current mini-batch. Since the variational objective is a sum of terms, we can cheaply compute a stochastic gradient by first subsampling a subset of terms and then forming an appropriately scaled gradient. We use a variant of the random node sampling method proposed in [9]. At each iteration we sample a node uniformly at random from the N nodes in the network. (In practice we sample a ?mini-batch? S of nodes per update to reduce noise [11, 9].) While a naive method will include all interactions of a sampled node as the observed pairs, we can leverage network sparsity for efficiency; in many real networks, only a small fraction of the node pairs are linked. Therefore, for each sampled node, we include as observations all of its links and a small uniform sample of m0 non-links. Let ??at be the natural gradient of L0 with respect to ?a , and ??ta and ??tk be the gradients of L0 with respect to ?a and ?k , respectively. Following [2, 9], we have P P t?1 t kk = ??a,k (6) ??a,k + ?k + (a,b)?links(a) ?kk ab (t) + (a,b)?nonlinks(a) ?ab (t), where links(a) and nonlinks(a) correspond to the set of links and non-links of a in the training set. Notice that an unbiased estimate of the summation term over non-links in Eq. 6 can be obtained from a subsample of the node?s non-links. Therefore, the gradient of L0 with respect to the membership parameter ?a , computed using all of the nodes? links and a subsample of its non-links, is a noisy but unbiased estimate of the natural gradient in Eq. 6. 2 The natural gradient [3] points in the direction of steepest ascent in the Riemannian space. The local distance in the Riemannian space is defined by KL divergence, a better measure of dissimilarity between probability distributions than Euclidean distance [11]. 5 The gradient of the approximate ELBO with respect to the popularity parameter ?a is P ?t?1 ??ta = ? ?a 2 + (a,b)?links(a) ? nonlinks(a) (yab ? rab sab ), (7) 1 where we define rab as rab ? exp{?a +??2 /2} exp{?b +??2 /2} . 1+exp{?a +??2 /2} exp{?b +??2 /2}sab (8) Finally, the stochastic gradient of L0 with respect to the global community strength parameter ?k is ??tk = t?1 ?0 ??k ?02 + N 2|S| P (a,b)?links(S) ? nonlinks(S) 2 ?kk ab (yab ? rab exp{?k + ?? /2}). (9) As with the community membership gradients, notice that an unbiased estimate of the summation term over non-links in Eq. 7 and Eq. 9 can be obtained from a subsample of the node?s non-links. To obtain an unbiased estimate of the true gradient with respect to ?k , the summation over a node?s links and non-links must be scaled by the inverse probability of subsampling that node in Eq. 9. Since each pair is shared between two nodes, and we use a mini-batch with S nodes, the summations over N the node pairs are scaled by 2|S| in Eq. 9. We can interpret the gradients in Eq. 7 and Eq. 9 by studying the terms involving rab in Eq. 7 and Eq. 9. In Eq. 7, (yab ? rab sab ) is the residual for the pair (a, b), while in Eq. 9, (yab ? rab exp{?k + ??2 /2}) is the residual for the pair (a, b) conditional on the latent community assignment for both nodes a and b being set to k. Further, notice that the updates for the global parameters of node a and b, and the updates for ? depend only on the diagonal entries of the indicator variational matrix ?ab . We can similarly obtain stochastic gradients for the variational variances ?? and ?? ; however, in our experiments we found that fixing them already gives good results. (See ?4.) The global step for the global parameters follows the noisy gradient with an appropriate step-size: ?a ? ?a + ?a (t)??at ; ?a ? ?a + ?a (t)??ta ; ? ? ? + ?0 (t)??t . (10) We maintain separate learning rates ?a for each node a, and only update the ? and ? for the nodes in the mini-batch in each iteration. There is a global learning rate ?0 for the community strength parameters ?, which are updated in every iteration. For each of these learning rates ?, we require P P that t ?(t)2 < ? and t ?(t) = ? for convergence to a local optimum [26]. We set ?(t) , (?0 + t)?? , where ? ? (0.5, 1] is the learning rate and ?0 ? 0 downweights early iterations. 3.4 The local step We now derive the updates for the local parameters. The local step optimizes the per-interaction memberships ? with respect to a subsample of the network. There is a per-interaction variational parameter of dimension K ? K for each node pair??ab ?representing the posterior approximation of which pair of communities are active in determining the link or non-link. The coordinate ascent update for ?ab is n o 2 ?kk ab ? exp Eq [log ?a,k ] + Eq [log ?b,k ] + yab ?k ? rab (exp{?k + ?? /2} ? 1) n o ?ij ab ? exp Eq [log ?a,i ] + Eq [log ?b,j ] , i 6= j, (11) (12) where rab is defined in Eq. 8. We present the full stochastic variational inference in Algorithm 1. 3.5 Initialization and convergence We initialize the community memberships ? using approximate posterior memberships from the variational inference algorithm for the MMSB [9]. We initialized popularities ? to the logarithm of the normalized node degrees added to a small random offset, and initialized the strengths ? to zero. We measure convergence by computing the link prediction accuracy on a validation set with 1% of the networks links, and an equal number of non-links. The algorithm stops either when the change in log-likelihood on this validation set is less than 0.0001%, or if the log-likelihood decreases for consecutive iterations. 6 Figure 2: Network data sets. N is the number of nodes, d is the percent of node pairs that are links and P is the mean perplexity over the links and nonlinks in the held-out test set. N d(%) PAMP PMMSB 712 1224 1450 4158 8638 11204 17903 36458 56739 1.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.05% 0.16% 0.11% 0.02% 0.01% 2.75 ? 0.04 2.97 ? 0.03 2.73 ? 0.11 3.69 ? 0.18 12.35 ? 0.17 2.75 ? 0.06 5.04 ? 0.02 10.82 ? 0.09 10.98 ? 0.39 3.41 ? 0.15 3.12 ? 0.01 3.02 ? 0.19 6.53 ? 0.37 23.06 ? 0.87 3.310 ? 0.15 5.28 ? 0.07 13.52 ? 0.21 41.11 ? 0.89 DATA SET US AIR POLITICAL BLOGS NETSCIENCE RELATIVITY HEP - TH HEP - PH ASTRO - PH COND - MAT BRIGHTKITE Mean precision relativity astro 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 10 50 100 hepph 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 10 50 100 hepth 2% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0% 10 50 100 TYPE TRANSPORT HYPERLINK COLLAB . COLLAB . COLLAB . COLLAB . COLLAB . COLLAB . SOCIAL cond?mat [25] [1] [22] [18] [18] [18] [18] [22] [18] brightkite 2% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0% 10 50 100 SOURCE 10 50 100 amp mmsb 10 50 100 Number of recommendations Mean recall relativity 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% astro hepph 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 10 50 100 10 50 100 hepth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 10 50 100 cond?mat 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 10 50 100 brightkite 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 10 50 100 amp mmsb 10 50 100 Number of recommendations Figure 3: The AMP model outperforms the MMSB model of [9] in predictive accuracy on real networks. Both models were fit using stochastic variational inference [11]. For the data sets shown, the number of communities K was set to 100 and hyperparameters were set to the same values across data sets. The perplexity results are based on five replications. A single replication is shown for the mean precision and mean recall. 4 Empirical study We use the predictive approach to evaluating model fitness [8], comparing the predictive accuracy of AMP (Algorithm 1) to the stochastic variational inference algorithm for the MMSB with link sampling [9]. In all data sets, we found that AMP gave better fits to real-world networks. Our networks range in size from 712 nodes to 56,739 nodes. Some networks are sparse, having as little as 0.01% of all pairs as links, while others have up to 2% of all pairs as links. Our data sets contain four types of networks: hyperlink, transportation, collaboration and social networks. We implemented Algorithm 1 in 4,800 lines of C++ code. 3 Metrics. We used perplexity, mean precision and mean recall in our experiments to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the algorithms. We computed the link prediction accuracy using a test set of node pairs that are not observed during training. The test set consists of 10% of randomly selected links and non-links from each data set. During training, these test set observations are treated as zeros. We approximate the predictive distribution of a held-out node pair yab under the AMP using ? ?? and ? posterior estimates ?, ? as P P ? ?)p(z ? p(yab |y) ? za?b za?b p(yab |za?b , za?b , ?, ?a )p(za?b |? ?b ). (13) a?b |? 3 Our software is available at https://github.com/premgopalan/sviamp. 7 Mean precision mu 0 mu 0.2 mu 0.4 0.028 0.026 0.024 0.022 0.020 0.018 0.016 0.028 0.026 0.024 0.022 0.020 0.018 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 amp mmsb 2 4 6 8 Ratio of max. degree to avg. degree Figure 4: The AMP predicts significantly better than the MMSB [9] on 12 LFR benchmark networks [17]. Each plot shows 4 networks with increasing right-skewness in degree distribution. ? is the fraction of noisy links between dissimilar nodes?nodes that share no communities. The precision is computed at 50 recommendations for each node, and is averaged over all nodes in the network. Perplexity is the exponential of the average predictive log likelihood of the held-out node pairs. For mean precision and recall, we generate the top n pairs for each node ranked by the probability of a link between them. The ranked list of pairs for each node includes nodes in the test set, as well as nodes in the training set that were non-links. We compute precision-at-m, which measures the fraction of the top m recommendations present in the test set; and we compute recall-at-m, which captures the fraction of nodes in the test set present in the top m recommendations. We vary m from 10 to 100. We then obtain the mean precision and recall across all nodes. 4 Hyperparameters and constants. For the stochastic AMP algorithm, we set the ?mini-batch? size S = N/100, where N is the number of nodes in the network and we set the non-link sample size m0 = 100. We set the number of communities K = 2 for the political blog network and K = 20 for the US air; for all other networks, K was set to 100. We set the hyperparameters ?02 = 1.0, ?12 = 10.0 and ?0 = 0, fixed the variational variances at ?? = 0.1 and ?? = 0.5 and set the learning 1 parameters ?0 = 65536 and ? = 0.5. We set the Dirichlet hyperparameter ? = K for the AMP and the MMSB. Results on real networks. Figure 2 compares the AMP and the MMSB stochastic algorithms on a number of real data sets. The AMP definitively outperforms the MMSB in predictive performance. All hyperparameter settings were held fixed across data sets. The first four networks are small in size, and were fit using the AMP model with a single community strength parameter. All other networks were fit with the AMP model with K community strength parameters. As N increases, the gap between the mean precision and mean recall performance of these algorithms appears to increase. Without node popularities, MMSB is dependent entirely on node memberships and community strengths to predict links. Since K is held fixed, communities are likely to have more nodes as N increases, making it increasingly difficult for the MMSB to predict links. For the small US air, political blogs and netscience data sets, we obtained similar performance for the replication shown in Figure 2. For the AMP the mean precision at 10 for US Air, political blogs and netscience were 0.087, 0.07, 0.092, respectively; for the MMSB the corresponding values were 0.007, 0.0, 0.063, respectively. Results on synthetic networks. We generated 12 LFR benchmark networks [17], each with 1000 nodes. Roughly 50% of the nodes were assigned to 4 overlapping communities, and the other 50% were assigned to single communities. We set a community size range of [200, 500] and a mean node degree of 10 with power-law exponent set to 2.0. Figure 4 shows that the MMSB performs poorly as the skewness is increased, while the AMP performs significantly better in the presence of both noisy links and right-skewness, both characteristics of real networks. The skewness in degree distributions causes the community strength parameters of MMSB to overestimate or underestimate the linking patterns within communities. The per-node popularities in the AMP can capture the heterogeneity in node degrees, while learning the corrected community strengths. Acknowledgments David M. Blei is supported by ONR N00014-11-1-0651, NSF CAREER IIS-0745520, and the Alfred P. Sloan foundation. Chong Wang is supported by NSF DBI-0546594 and NIH 1R01GM093156. 4 Precision and recall are better metrics than ROC AUC on highly skewed data sets [5]. 8 References [1] L. A. Adamic and N. Glance. The political blogosphere and the 2004 U.S. election: divided they blog. In LinkKDD, LinkKDD ?05, page 3643, New York, NY, USA, 2005. ACM. [2] E. M. Airoldi, D. M. Blei, S. E. Fienberg, and E. P. Xing. Mixed membership stochastic blockmodels. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 9:1981?2014, June 2008. [3] S. Amari. Differential geometry of curved exponential Families-Curvatures and information loss. The Annals of Statistics, 10(2):357?385, June 1982. [4] B. Ball, B. Karrer, and M. E. J. Newman. Efficient and principled method for detecting communities in networks. Physical Review E, 84(3):036103, Sept. 2011. [5] J. Davis and M. Goadrich. The relationship between precision-recall and ROC curves. In Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on Machine learning, ICML ?06, pages 233?240, New York, NY, USA, 2006. ACM. [6] S. Fortunato. Community detection in graphs. Physics Reports, 486(35):75?174, Feb. 2010. [7] T. M. J. Fruchterman and E. M. Reingold. Graph drawing by force-directed placement. Softw. Pract. Exper., 21(11):1129?1164, Nov. 1991. [8] S. Geisser and W. Eddy. A predictive approach to model selection. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74:153?160, 1979. [9] P. K. Gopalan and D. M. Blei. Efficient discovery of overlapping communities in massive networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(36):14534?14539, 2013. [10] P. Hoff, A. Raftery, and M. Handcock. Latent space approaches to social network analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(460):1090?1098, 2002. [11] M. Hoffman, D. M. Blei, C. Wang, and J. Paisley. Stochastic variational inference. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2013. [12] H. Jeong, Z. Nda, and A. L. Barabsi. Measuring preferential attachment in evolving networks. EPL (Europhysics Letters), 61(4):567, 2003. [13] M. I. Jordan, Z. Ghahramani, T. S. Jaakkola, and L. K. Saul. An introduction to variational methods for graphical models. Mach. Learn., 37(2):183?233, Nov. 1999. [14] B. Karrer and M. E. J. Newman. Stochastic blockmodels and community structure in networks. Phys. Rev. E, 83:016107, Jan 2011. [15] D. I. 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A Scalable Approach to Probabilistic Latent Space Inference of Large-Scale Networks Junming Yin School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Qirong Ho School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Eric P. Xing School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Abstract We propose a scalable approach for making inference about latent spaces of large networks. With a succinct representation of networks as a bag of triangular motifs, a parsimonious statistical model, and an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm, we are able to analyze real networks with over a million vertices and hundreds of latent roles on a single machine in a matter of hours, a setting that is out of reach for many existing methods. When compared to the state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches, our method is several orders of magnitude faster, with competitive or improved accuracy for latent space recovery and link prediction. 1 Introduction In the context of network analysis, a latent space refers to a space of unobserved latent representations of individual entities (i.e., topics, roles, or simply embeddings, depending on how users would interpret them) that govern the potential patterns of network relations. The problem of latent space inference amounts to learning the bases of such a space and reducing the high-dimensional network data to such a lower-dimensional space, in which each entity has a position vector. Depending on model semantics, the position vectors can be used for diverse tasks such as community detection [1, 5], user personalization [4, 13], link prediction [14] and exploratory analysis [9, 19, 8]. However, scalability is a key challenge for many existing probabilistic methods, as even recent stateof-the-art methods [5, 8] still require days to process modest networks of around 100, 000 nodes. To perform latent space analysis on at least million-node (if not larger) real social networks with many distinct latent roles [24], one must design inferential mechanisms that scale in both the number of vertices N and the number of latent roles K. In this paper, we argue that the following three principles are crucial for successful large-scale inference: (1) succinct but informative representation of networks; (2) parsimonious statistical modeling; (3) scalable and parallel inference algorithms. Existing approaches [1, 5, 7, 8, 14] are limited in that they consider only one or two of the above principles, and therefore can not simultaneously achieve scalability and sufficient accuracy. For example, the mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel (MMSB) [1] is a probabilistic latent space model for edge representation of networks. Its batch variational inference algorithm has O(N 2 K 2 ) time complexity and hence cannot be scaled to large networks. The a-MMSB [5] improves upon MMSB by applying principles (2) and (3): it reduces the dimension of the parameter space from O(K 2 ) to O(K), and applies a stochastic variational algorithm for fast inference. Fundamentally, however, the a-MMSB still depends on the O(N 2 ) adjacency matrix representation of networks, just like the MMSB. The a-MMSB inference algorithm mitigates this issue by downsampling zero elements in the matrix, but is still not fast enough to handle networks with N ? 100, 000. But looking beyond the edge-based relations and features, other higher-order structural statistics (such as the counts of triangles and k-stars) are also widely used to represent the probability distribution over the space of networks, and are viewed as crucial elements in building a good-fitting exponential random graph model (ERGM) [11]. These higher-order relations have motivated the development of the triangular representation of networks [8], in which each network is represented succinctly as a bag of triangular motifs with size typically much smaller than ?(N 2 ). This succinct representation has proven effective in extracting informative mixed-membership roles from 1 networks with high fidelity, thus achieving the first principle (1). However, the corresponding statistical model, called the mixed-membership triangular model (MMTM), only scales well against the size of a network, but does not scale to large numbers of latent roles (i.e., dimension of the latent space). To be precise, if there are K distinct latent roles, its tensor of triangle-generating parameters is of size O(K 3 ), and its blocked Gibbs sampler requires O(K 3 ) time per iteration. Our own experiments show that the MMTM Gibbs algorithm is unusable for K > 10. We now present a scalable approach to both latent space modeling and inference algorithm design that encompasses all three aforementioned principles for large networks. Specifically, we build our approach on the bag-of-triangles representation of networks [8] and apply principles (2) and (3), yielding a fast inference procedure that has time complexity O(N K). In Section 3, we propose the parsimonious triangular model (PTM), in which the dimension of the triangle-generating parameters only grows linearly in K. The dramatic reduction is principally achieved by sharing parameters among certain groups of latent roles. Then, in Section 4, we develop a fast stochastic natural gradient ascent algorithm for performing variational inference, where an unbiased estimate of the natural gradient is obtained by subsampling a ?mini-batch? of triangular motifs. Instead of adopting a fully factorized, naive mean-field approximation, which we find performs poorly in practice, we pursue a structured mean-field approach that captures higher-order dependencies between latent variables. These new developments all combine to yield an efficient inference algorithm that usually converges after 2 passes on each triangular motif (or up to 4-5 passes at worst), and achieves competitive or improved accuracy for latent space recovery and link prediction on synthetic and real networks. Finally, in Section 5, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges and infers a 100-role latent space on a 1M-node Youtube social network in just 4 hours, using a single machine with 8 threads. 2 Triangular Representation of Networks We take a scalable approach to network modeling by representing each network succinctly as a bag of triangular motifs [8]. Each triangular motif is a connected subgraph over a vertex triple containing 2 or 3 edges (called open triangle and closed triangle respectively). Empty and singleedge triples are ignored. Although this triangular format does not preserve all network information found in an edge representation, these three-node connected subgraphs are able to capture a number of informative structural features in the network. For example, in social network theory, the notion of triadic closure [21, 6] is commonly measured by the relative number of closed triangles compared to the total number of connected triples, known as the global clustering coefficient or transitivity [17]. The same quantity is treated as a general network statistic in the exponential random graph model (ERGM) literature [16]. Furthermore, the most significant and recurrent structural patterns in many complex networks, so-called ?network motifs?, turn out to be connected three-node subgraphs [15]. Most importantly of all, triangular modeling requires much less computational cost compared to edge-based models, with little or no degradation of performance for latent space recovery [8]. In networks with N vertices and low maximum vertex degree D, the number of triangular motifs ?(N D2 ) is normally much smaller than ?(N 2 ), allowing us to construct more efficient inference algorithms scalable to larger networks. For high-maximum-degree networks, the triangular motifs can be subsampled in a node-centric fashion as a local data reduction step. For each vertex i with  degree higher than a user-chosen threshold ?, uniformly sample 2? triangles from the set composed of (a) its adjacent closed triangles, and (b) its adjacent open triangles that are centered on i. Vertices with degree ? ? keep all triangles from their set. It has been shown that this ?-subsampling procedure can approximately preserve the distribution over open and closed triangles, and allows for much faster inference algorithms (linear growth in N) at a small cost in accuracy [8]. In what follows, we assume that a preprocessing step has been performed ? namely, extracting and ?-subsampling triangular motifs (which can be done in O(1) time per sample, and requires < 1% of the actual inference time) ? to yield a bag-of-triangles representation of the input network. For each triplet of vertices i, j, k ? {1, . . . , N } , i < j < k, let Eijk denote the observed type of triangular motif formed among these three vertices: Eijk = 1, 2 and 3 represent an open triangle with i, j and k in the center respectively, and Eijk = 4 if a closed triangle is formed. Because empty and single-edge triples are discarded, the set of triples with triangular motifs formed, I = {(i, j, k) : i < j < k, Eijk = 1, 2, 3 or 4}, is of size O(N ? 2 ) after ?-subsampling [8]. 3 Parsimonious Triangular Model Given the input network, now represented as a bag of triangular motifs, our goal is to make inference about the latent position vector ?i of each vertex i ? {1, . . . , N }. We take a mixed-membership 2 (si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ) Equivalence classes x = si,jk = sj,ik = sk,ij {1, 2, 3}, {4} x = si,jk = sj,ik 6= sk,ij {1, 2}, {3}, {4} x = si,jk = sk,ij 6= sj,ik {1, 3}, {2}, {4} x = sj,ik = sk,ij 6= si,jk {2, 3}, {1}, {4} sk,ij 6= si,jk 6= sj,ik {1, 2, 3}, {4} Conditional probability of Eijk ? {1, 2, 3, 4}  Bxxx,1 Bxxx,1 Bxxx,1  , , , Bxxx,2 3 3 3  Bxx,1 Bxx,1  Discrete , , Bxx,2 , Bxx,3 2 2  Bxx,1  Bxx,1 Discrete , B , , Bxx,3 xx,2 2 2   B B Discrete Bxx,2 , xx,1 , xx,1 , Bxx,3 2 2   B0,1 B0,1 B0,1 Discrete 3 , 3 , 3 , B0,2 Discrete Table 1: Equivalence classes and conditional probabilities of Eijk given si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij (see text for details). approach: each vertex i can take a mixture distribution over K latent roles governed by a mixedmembership vector ?i ? ?K?1 restricted to the (K ? 1)-simplex. Such vectors can be used for performing community detection and link prediction, as demonstrated in Section 5. Following a design principle similar to the Mixed-Membership Triangular Model (MMTM) [8], our Parsimonious Triangular Model (PTM) is essentially a latent-space model that defines the generative process for a bag of triangular motifs. However, compared to the MMTM, the major advantage of the PTM lies in its more compact and lower-dimensional nature that allows for more efficient inference algorithms (see Global Update step in Section 4). The dimension of triangle-generating parameters in the PTM is just O(K), rather than O(K 3 ) in the MMTM (see below for further discussion). To form a triangular motif Eijk for each triplet of vertices (i, j, k), a triplet of role indices si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ? {1, . . . , K} is first chosen based on the mixed-membership vectors ?i , ?j , ?k . These indices designate the roles taken by each vertex participating in this triangular motif. There are O(K 3 ) distinct configurations of such latent role triplet, and the MMTM uses a tensor of trianglegenerating parameters of the same size to define the probability of Eijk , one entry Bxyz for each possible configuration (x, y, z). In the PTM, we reduce the number of such parameters by partitioning the O(K 3 ) configuration space into several groups, and then sharing parameters within the same group. The partitioning is based on the number of distinct states in the configuration of the role triplet: 1) if the three role indices are all in the same state x, the triangle-generating probability is determined by Bxxx ; 2) if only two role indices exhibit the same state x (called majority role), the probability of triangles is governed by Bxx , which is shared across different minority roles; 3) if the three role indices are all distinct, the probability of triangular motifs depends on B0 , a single parameter independent of the role configurations. This sharing yields just O(K) parameters B0 , Bxx , Bxxx , x ? {1, . . . , K}, allowing PTM to scale to far more latent roles than MMTM. A similar idea was proposed in a-MMSB [5], using one parameter  to determine inter-role link probabilities, rather than O(K 2 ) parameters for all pairs of distinct roles, as in the original MMSB [1]. Once the role triplet (si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ) is chosen, some of the triangular motifs can become indistinguishable. To illustrate, in the case of x = si,jk = sj,ik 6= sk,ij , one cannot distinguish the open triangle with i in the center (Eijk = 1) from that with j in the center (Eijk = 2), because both are open triangles centered at a vertex with majority role x, and are thus structurally equivalent under the given role configuration. Formally, this configuration induces a set of triangle equivalence classes {{1, 2}, {3}, {4}} of all possible triangular motifs {1, 2, 3, 4}. We treat the triangular motifs within the same equivalence class as stochastically equivalent; that is, the conditional probabilities of events Eijk = 1 and Eijk = 2 are the same if x = si,jk = sj,ik 6= sk,ij . All possible cases are enumerated as follows (see also Table 1): 1. If all three vertices have the same role x, all three open triangles are equivalent and the induced set of equivalence classes is {{1, 2, 3}, {4}}. The probability of Eijk is determined by Bxxx ? ?1 , where Bxxx,1 represents the total probability of sampling an open triangle from {1, 2, 3} and Bxxx,2 represents the closed triangle probability. Thus, the probability of a particular open triangle is Bxxx,1 /3. 2. If only two vertices have the same role x (majority role), the probability of Eijk is governed by Bxx ? ?2 . Here, Bxx,1 and Bxx,2 represent the open triangle probabilities (for open triangles centered at a vertex in majority and minority role respectively), and Bxx,3 represents the closed triangle probability. There are two possible open triangles with a vertex in majority role at the center, and hence each has probability Bxx,1 /2. 3. If all three vertices have distinct roles, the probability of Eijk depends on B0 ? ?1 , where B0,1 represents the total probability of sampling an open triangle from {1, 2, 3} (regardless of the center vertex?s role) and B0,2 represents the closed triangle probability. To summarize, the PTM assumes the following generative process for a bag of triangular motifs: ? Choose B0 ? ?1 , Bxx ? ?2 and Bxxx ? ?1 for each role x ? {1, . . . , K} according to symmetric Dirichlet distributions Dirichlet(?). 3 ? For each vertex i ? {1, . . . , N }, draw a mixed-membership vector ?i ? Dirichlet (?). ? For each triplet of vertices (i, j, k) , i < j < k, ? Draw role indices si,jk ? Discrete (?i ), sj,ik ? Discrete (?j ), sk,ij ? Discrete (?k ). ? Choose a triangular motif Eijk ? {1, 2, 3, 4} based on B0 , Bxx , Bxxx and the configuration of (si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ) (see Table 1 for the conditional probabilities). It is worth pointing out that, similar to the MMTM, our PTM is not a generative model of networks per se because (a) empty and single-edge motifs are not modeled, and (b) one can generate a set of triangles that does not correspond to any network, because the generative process does not force overlapping triangles to have consistent edge values. However, given a bag of triangular motifs E extracted from a network, the above procedure defines a valid probabilistic model p(E | ?, ?) and we can legitimately use it for performing posterior inference p(s, ?, B | E, ?, ?). We stress that our goal is latent space inference, not network simulation. 4 Scalable Stochastic Variational Inference In this section, we present a stochastic variational inference algorithm [10] for performing approximate inference under our model. Although it is also feasible to develop such algorithm for the MMTM [8], the O(N K 3 ) computational complexity precludes its application to large numbers of latent roles. However, due to the parsimonious O(K) parameterization of the PTM, our efficient algorithm has only O(N K) complexity. We adopted a structured mean-field approximation method, in which the true posterior of latent variables p(s, ?, B | E, ?, ?) is approximated by a partially factorized distribution q(s, ?, B), q(s, ?, B) = Y (i,j,k)?I q(si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij | ?ijk ) N Y q(?i | ?i ) K Y q(Bxxx | ?xxx ) x=1 i=1 K Y q(Bxx | ?xx )q(B0 | ?0 ), x=1 where I = {(i, j, k) : i < j < k, Eijk = 1, 2, 3 or 4} and |I| = O(N ? 2 ). The strong dependencies among the per-triangle latent roles (si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ) suggest that we should model them as a group, rather than completely independent as in a naive mean-field approximation1 . Thus, the variational posterior of (si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ) is the discrete distribution . q(si,jk = x, sj,ik = y, sk,ij = z) = qijk (x, y, z) = ?xyz ijk , x, y, z = 1, . . . , K. (1) The posterior q(?i ) is a Dirichlet(?i ); and the posteriors of Bxxx , Bxx , B0 are parameterized as: q(Bxxx ) = Dirichlet(?xxx ), q(Bxx ) = Dirichlet(?xx ), and q(B0 ) = Dirichlet(?0 ). The mean field approximation aims to minimize the KL divergence KL(q k p) between the approximating distribution q and the true posterior p; it is equivalent to maximizing a lower bound L(?, ?, ?) of the log marginal likelihood of the triangular motifs (based on Jensen?s inequality) with respect to the variational parameters {?, ?, ?} [22]. . log p(E | ?, ?) ? Eq [log p(E, s, ?, B | ?, ?)] ? Eq [log q(s, ?, B)] = L(?, ?, ?). (2) To simplify the notation, we decompose the variational objective L(?, ?, ?) into a global term and a summation of local terms, one term for each triangular motif (see Appendix for details). X L(?, ?, ?) = g(?, ?) + `(?ijk , ?, ?). (3) (i,j,k)?I The global term g(?, ?) depends only on the global variational parameters ?, which govern the posterior of the triangle-generating probabilities B, as well as the per-node mixed-membership parameters ?. Each local term `(?ijk , ?, ?) depends on per-triangle parameters ?ijk as well as the . global parameters. Define L(?, ?) = max? L(?, ?, ?), which is the variational objective achieved by fixing the global parameters ?, ? and optimizing the local parameters ?. By equation (3), L(?, ?) = g(?, ?) + X (i,j,k)?I max `(?ijk , ?, ?). ?ijk (4) Stochastic variational inference is a stochastic gradient ascent algorithm [3] that maximizes L(?, ?), based on noisy estimates of its gradient with respect to ? and ?. Whereas computing the true gradient ?L(?, ?) involves a costly summation over all triangular motifs as in (4), an unbiased noisy approximation of the gradient can be obtained much more cheaply by summing over a small subsample of triangles. With this unbiased estimate of the gradient and a suitable adaptive step size, the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to a stationary point of the variational objective L(?, ?) [18]. 1 We tested a naive mean-field approximation, and it performed very poorly. This is because the tensor of role probabilities q(x, y, z) is often of high rank, whereas naive mean-field is a rank-1 approximation. 4 Algorithm 1 Stochastic Variational Inference 1: t = 0. Initialize the global parameters ? and ?. 2: Repeat the following steps until convergence. (1) Sample a mini-batch of triangles S. (2) Optimize the local parameters qijk (x, y, z) for all sampled triangles in parallel by (6). (3) Accumulate sufficient statistics for the natural gradients of ?, ? (and then discard qijk (x, y, z)). (4) Optimize the global parameters ? and ? by the stochastic natural gradient ascent rule (7). (5) ?t ? ?0 (?1 + t)?? , t ? t + 1. In our setting, the most natural way to obtain an unbiased gradient of L(?, ?) is to sample a ?minibatch? of triangular motifs at each iteration, and then average the gradient of local terms in (4) only for these sampled triangles. Formally, let m be the total number of triangles and define LS (?, ?) = g(?, ?) + m |S| X (i,j,k)?S max `(?ijk , ?, ?), ?ijk (5) where S is a mini-batch of triangles sampled uniformly at random. It is easy to verify that ES [LS (?, ?)] = L(?, ?), hence ?LS (?, ?) is unbiased: ES [?LS (?, ?)] = ?L(?, ?). Exact Local Update. To obtain the gradient ?LS (?, ?), one needs to compute the optimal local variational parameters ?ijk (keeping ? and ? fixed) for each sampled triangle (i, j, k) in the minibatch S; these optimal ?ijk ?s are then used in equation (5) to compute ?LS (?, ?). Taking partial derivatives of (3) with respect to each local term ?xyz ijk and setting them to zero, we get for distinct x, y, z ? {1,n. . . , K}, o ?xyz ijk ? exp Eq [log B0,2 ]I[Eijk = 4] + Eq [log(B0,1 /3)]I[Eijk 6= 4] + Eq [log ?i,x + log ?j,x + log ?k,x ] . (6) xxy xxx See Appendix for the update equations of ?ijk and ?ijk (x 6= y). O(K) Approximation to Local Update. For each sampled triangle (i, j, k), the exact local update requires O(K 3 ) work to solve for all ?xyz ijk , making it unscalable. To enable a faster local update, we replace qijk (x, y, z | ?ijk ) in (1) with a simpler ?mixture-of-deltas? variational distribution, X X aaa abc qijk (x, y, z | ?ijk ) = ?ijk I[x = y = z = a] + ?ijk I[x = a, y = b, z = c], a (a,b,c)?A P aaa where A is a randomly chosen set of triples (a, b, c) with size O(K), and a ?ijk + P abc ? = 1. In other words, we assume the probability mass of the variational poste(a,b,c)?A ijk rior q(si,jk , sj,ik , sk,ij ) falls entirely on the K ?diagonal? role combinations (a, a, a) as well as O(K) randomly chosen ?off-diagonals? (a, b, c). Conveniently, the ? update equations are identical to their ? counterparts as in (6), except that we normalize over the ??s instead. In our implementation, we generate A by picking 3K combinations of the form (a, a, b), (a, b, a) or (a, a, b), and another 3K combinations of the form (a, b, c), thus mirroring the parameter structure of B. Furthermore, we re-pick A every time we perform the local update on some triangle (i, j, k), thus avoiding any bias due to a single choice of A. We find that this approximation works as well as the full parameterization in (1), yet requires only O(K) work per sampled triangle. Note that any choice of A yields a valid lower bound to the true log-likelihood; this follows from standard variational inference theory. Global Update. We appeal to stochastic natural gradient ascent [2, 20, 10] to optimize the global parameters ? and ?, as it greatly simplifies the update rules while maintaining the same asymptotic ? S (?, ?) is obtained convergence properties as classical stochastic gradient. The natural gradient ?L by a premultiplication of the ordinary gradient ?LS (?, ?) with the inverse of the Fisher information of the variational posterior q. See Appendix for the exact forms of the natural gradients with respect to ? and ?. To update the parameters ? and ?, we apply the stochastic natural gradient ascent rule ? ? LS (?t , ?t ), ?t+1 = ?t + ?t ? ? ? LS (?t , ?t ), ?t+1 = ?t + ?t ? (7) where given by ?t = ?0 (?1 + t)?? . To ensure convergence, the ?0 , ?1 , ? are set such Pthe step size is P that t ?2t < ? and t ?t = ? (Section 5 has our experimental values). The global update only costs O(N K) time per iteration due to the parsimonious O(K) parameterization of our PTM. Our full inferential procedure is summarized in Algorithm 1. Within a mini-batch S, steps 2-3 can be trivially parallelized across triangles. Furthermore, the local parameters qijk (x, y, z) can 5 be discarded between iterations, since all natural gradient sufficient statistics can be accumulated during the local update. This saves up to tens of gigabytes of memory on million-node networks. 5 Experiments We demonstrate that our stochastic variational algorithm achieves latent space recovery accuracy comparable to or better than prior work, but in only a fraction of the time. In addition, we perform heldout link prediction and likelihood lower bound (i.e. perplexity) experiments on several large real networks, showing that our approach is orders of magnitude more scalable than previous work. 5.1 Generating Synthetic Data We use two latent space models as the simulator for our experiments ? the MMSB model [1] (which the MMSB batch variational algorithm solves for), and a model that produces power-law networks from a latent space (see Appendix for details). Briefly, the MMSB model produces networks with ?blocks? of nodes characterized by high edge probabilities, whereas the Power-Law model produces ?communities? centered around a high-degree hub node. We show that our algorithm rapidly and accurately recovers latent space roles based on these two notions of node-relatedness. For both models, we synthesized ground truth role vectors ?i ?s to generate networks of varying difficulty. We generated networks with N ? {500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000} nodes, with the number of roles growing as K = N/100, to simulate the fact that large networks can have more roles [24]. We generated ?easy? networks where each ?i contains 1 to 2 nonzero roles, and ?hard? networks with 1 to 4 roles per ?i . A full technical description of our networks can be found in the Appendix. 5.2 Latent Space Recovery on Synthetic Data Task and Evaluation. Given one of the synthetic networks, the task is to recover estimates ??i ?s of the original latent space vectors ?i ?s used to generate the network. Because we are comparing different algorithms (with varying model assumptions) on different networks (generated under their own assumptions), we standardize our evaluation by thresholding all outputs ??i ?s at 1/8 = 0.125 (because there are no more than 4 roles per ?i ), and use Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) [12, 23], a commonly-used measure of overlapping cluster accuracy, to compare the ??i ?s with the true ?i ?s (thresholded similarly). In other words, we want to recover the set of non-zero roles. Competing Algorithms and Initialization. We tested the following algorithms:  ? Our PTM stochastic variational algorithm. We used ? = 50 subsampling2 (i.e. 50 = 1225 triangles 2 per node), hyperparameters ? = ? = 0.1, and a 10% minibatch size with step-size ?0 (?1 + t)? , where ?0 = 100, ?1 = 10000, ? = ?0.5, and t is the iteration number. Our algorithm has a runtime complexity of O(N ? 2 K). Since our algorithm can be run in parallel, we conduct all experiments using 4 threads ? compared to single-threaded execution, we observe this reduces runtime to about 40%. ? MMTM collapsed blocked Gibbs sampler, according to [8]. We also used ? = 50 subsampling. The algorithm has O(N ? 2 K 3 ) time complexity, and is single-threaded. ? PTM collapsed blocked Gibbs sampler. Like the above MMTM Gibbs, but using our PTM model. Because of block sampling, complexity is still O(N ? 2 K 3 ). Single-threaded. ? MMSB batch variational [1]. This algorithm has O(N 2 K 2 ) time complexity, and is single-threaded. All these algorithms are locally-optimal search procedures, and thus sensitive to initial values. In particular, if nodes from two different roles are initialized to have the same role, the output is likely to merge all nodes in both roles into a single role. To ensure a meaningful comparison, we therefore provide the same fixed initialization to all algorithms ? for every role x, we provide 2 example nodes i, and initialize the remaining nodes to have random roles. In other words, we seed 2% of the nodes with one of their true roles, and let the algorithms proceed from there3 . Recovery Accuracy. Results of our method, MMSB Variational, MMTM Gibbs and PTM Gibbs are in Figure 1. Our method exhibits high accuracy (i.e. NMI close to 1) across almost all networks, validating its ability to recover latent roles under a range of network sizes N and roles K. In contrast, as N (and thus K) increases, MMSB Variational exhibits degraded performance despite having converged, while MMTM/PTM Gibbs converge to and become stuck in local minima 2 We chose ? = 50 because almost all our synthetic networks have median degree ? 50. Choosing ? above the median degree ensures that more than 50% of the nodes will receive all their assigned triangles. 3 In general, one might not have any ground truth roles or labels to seed the algorithm with. For such cases, our algorithm can be initialized as follows: rank all nodes according to the number of 3-triangles they touch, and then seed the top K nodes with different roles x. The intuition is that ?good? roles may be defined as having a high ratio of 3-triangles to 2-triangles among participating nodes. 6 Latent space recovery on Synthetic Power-Law and MMSB Networks Accuracy vs MMSB, MMTM Runtime Full vs Mini-Batch 0.8 0.6 0.6 Our method MMTM Gibbs PTM Gibbs MMSB Variational 0 0.51 2 5 Our method MMTM Gibbs PTM Gibbs MMSB Variational 0.2 0 10 0.51 1,000s of nodes N 0.6 0.6 0 Our method MMTM Gibbs PTM Gibbs MMSB Variational 0.51 2 5 10 0.4 Our method MMTM Gibbs PTM Gibbs MMSB Variational 0.2 10 1,000s of nodes N 0 0.51 2 5 10 0.8 600 400 0 0.6 0.4 0.2 200 NMI: Power?Law hard 1 0.8 NMI NMI NMI: Power?Law easy 1 0.2 5 800 0.51 2 5 0 0 10 6 8 10 Data passes Runtime: Power?Law hard 1 Our method MMTM Gibbs PTM Gibbs MMSB Variational 800 0.8 600 0.6 400 0.4 200 0.2 1,000s of nodes N 4 Convergence: Power?Law Hard, N=1000 1000 0 10% mini?batches Full batch variational 2 1,000s of nodes N 1,000s of nodes N 0.8 0.4 2 1 Our method MMTM Gibbs PTM Gibbs MMSB Variational NMI 0.2 0.4 Seconds per data pass 0.4 1000 NMI 0.8 Convergence: MMSB Hard, N=1000 Runtime: MMSB hard Seconds per data pass NMI: MMSB hard 1 NMI NMI NMI: MMSB easy 1 0.51 2 5 10 0 0 10% mini?batches Full batch variational 2 4 6 8 10 Data passes 1,000s of nodes N Figure 1: Synthetic Experiments. Left/Center: Latent space recovery accuracy (measured using Normalized Mutual Information) and runtime per data pass for our method and baselines. With the MMTM/PTM Gibbs and MMSB Variational algorithms, the larger networks did not complete within 12 hours. The runtime plots for MMSB easy and Power-Law easy experiments are very similar to the hard experiments, so we omit them. Right: Convergence of our stochastic variational algorithm (with 10% minibatches) versus a batch variational version of our algorithm. On N = 1, 000 networks, our minibatch algorithm converges within 1-2 data passes. Network Type Name Nodes N Edges Our Method AUC MMSB Variational AUC Link Prediction on Synthetic and Real Networks Synthetic Dictionary Biological arXiv Collaboration MMSB Power-law Roget Odlis Yeast GrQc AstroPh 2.0K 2.0K 1.0K 2.9K 2.4K 5.2K 18.7K 40K 40K 3.6K 16K 6.6K 14K 200K 0.93 0.91 0.97 0.94 0.65 0.72 0.81 0.88 0.75 0.81 0.82 0.77 0.86 ? Internet Stanford 282K 2.0M Social Youtube 1.1M 3.0M 0.94 ? 0.71 ? Table 2: Link Prediction Experiments, measured using AUC. Our method performs similarly to MMSB Variational on synthetic data. MMSB performs better on smaller, non-social networks, while we perform better on larger, social networks (or MMSB fails to complete due to lack of scalability). Roget, Odlis and Yeast networks are from Pajek datasets (http://vlado.fmf.uni-lj.si/pub/networks/data/); the rest are from Stanford Large Network Dataset Collection (http://snap.stanford.edu/data/). (even after many iterations and trials), without reaching a good solution4 . We believe our method maintains high accuracy due to its parsimonious O(K) parameter structure ? compared to MMSB Variational?s O(K 2 ) block matrix and MMTM Gibbs?s O(K 3 ) tensor of triangle parameters. Having fewer parameters may lead to better parameter estimates, and better task performance. Runtime. On the larger networks, MMSB Variational and MMTM/PTM Gibbs did not even finish execution due to their high runtime complexity. This can be seen in the runtime graphs, which plot the time taken per data pass5 : at N = 5, 000, all 3 baselines require orders of magnitude more time than our method does at N = 10, 000. Recall that K = O(N ), and that our method has time complexity O(N ? 2 K), while MMSB Variational has O(N 2 K 2 ), and MMTM/PTM Gibbs has O(N ? 2 K 3 ) ? hence, our method runs in O(N 2 ) on these synthetic networks, while the others run in O(N 4 ). This highlights the need for network methods that are linear in N and K. Convergence of stochastic vs. batch algorithms. We also demonstrate that our stochastic variational algorithm with 10% mini-batches converges much faster to the correct solution than a nonstochastic, full-batch implementation. The convergence graphs in Figure 1 plot NMI as a function of data passes, and show that our method converges to the (almost) correct solution in 1-2 data passes. In contrast, the batch algorithm takes 10 or more data passes to converge. 5.3 Heldout Link Prediction on Real and Synthetic Networks We compare MMSB Variational and our method on a link prediction task, in which 10% of the edges are randomly removed (set to zero) from the network, and, given this modified network, the task is to rank these heldout edges against an equal number of randomly chosen non-edges. For MMSB, we simply ranked according to the link probability under the MMSB model. For our 4 With more generous initializations (20 out of 100 ground truth nodes per role), MMTM/PTM Gibbs converge correctly. In practice however, this is an unrealistic amount of prior knowledge to expect. We believe that more sophisticated MCMC schemes may fix this convergence issue with MMTM/PTM models. 5 One data pass is defined as performing variational inference on m triangles, where m is equal to the total number of triangles. This takes the same amount of time for both the stochastic and batch algorithms. 7 Real Networks ? Statistics, Experimental Settings and Runtime Nodes Edges ? 2,3-Tris (for ?) Frac. 3-Tris Roles K Threads Name Brightkite Brightkite Slashdot Feb 2009 Slashdot Feb 2009 Stanford Web Stanford Web Berkeley-Stanford Web Youtube 58K || 82K || 282K || 685K 1.1M 214K || 504K || 2.0M || 6.6M 3.0M 50 || 50 || 20 50 30 50 3.5M || 9.0M || 11.4M 25.0M 57.6M 36.0M 0.11 || 0.030 || 0.57 0.42 0.55 0.053 64 300 100 300 5 100 100 100 Runtime (10 data passes) 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 8 34 min 2.6 h 2.4 h 6.7 h 10 min 6.3 h 15.2 h 9.1 h Table 3: Real Network Experiments. All networks were taken from the Stanford Large Network Dataset Collection; directed networks were converted to undirected networks via symmetrization. Some networks were run with more than one choice of settings. Runtime is the time taken for 10 data passes (which was more than sufficient for convergence on all networks, see Figure 2). Real Networks ? Heldout lower bound of our method x 10 Brightkite K=64, 4 threads 6 7 x 10 ?1 ?0.5 x 10 Brightkite K=300, 4 threads Slashdot K=100, 4 threads 7 6 ?1 x 10 ?1 x 10 6 x 10 0 7 ?1 x 10 Slashdot K=300, 4 threads ?2 ?2 ?3 ?4 Heldout LB ?1.5 ?2 Training LB ?1.5 Training LB ?1 Heldout LB ?1.5 Heldout LB ?1 Training LB ?2.5 ?2 ?3 ?2.5 ?3.5 ?3 ?1.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 ?2 0.7 ?2 0 0.5 1 Hours 7 x 10 7 6 x 10 ?2.5 0 2.5 ?4 0 ?2.5 3 0.5 1 x 10 1.5 ?6 2.5 2 1 2 3 Hours Stanford K=100, 4 threads 7 8 x 10 ?0.5 ?0.6 x 10 4 5 6 ?4.5 7 Hours Berk?Stan K=100, 8 threads 7 8 x 10 ?1.2 ?0.8 ?1.4 ?0.5 ?1.6 ?1.8 ?1.4 ?2 Heldout LB ?1 ?1.2 Training LB ?1 Heldout LB ?5 Training LB ?3.5 ?2.5 x 10 Youtube K=100, 8 threads 7 x 10 ?1 ?1 ?1.5 ?4 ?1.6 ?3 0 ?4 ?3.5 0 ?3 ?2 Training LB ?1.5 Training LB 2 Hours Stanford K=5, 4 threads Heldout LB ?1 1.5 6 x 10 ?2 Heldout LB Training LB ?1.5 Heldout LB 7 ?0.5 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 Hours 0.12 0.14 0.16 ?4.5 ?10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ?1.5 7 ?1.8 0 Hours ?2.2 2 4 6 8 Hours 10 12 14 ?2.4 16 ?1.5 0 2 4 6 8 ?2 10 Hours Figure 2: Real Network Experiments. Training and heldout variational lower bound (equivalent to perplexity) convergence plots for all experiments in Table 3. Each plot shows both lower bounds over 10 data passes (i.e. 100 iterations with 10% minibatches). In all cases, we observe convergence between 2-5 data passes, and the shape of the heldout curve closely mirrors the training curve (i.e. no overfitting). method, we ranked possible links i ? j by the probability that the triangle (i, j, k) will include edge i ? j, marginalizing over all choices of the third node k and over all possible role choices for nodes i, j, k. Table 2 displays results for a variety of networks, and our triangle-based method does better on larger social networks than the edge-based MMSB. This matches what has been observed in the network literature [24], and further validates our triangle modeling assumptions. 5.4 Real World Networks ? Convergence on Heldout Data Finally, we demonstrate that our approach is capable of scaling to large real-world networks, achieving convergence in a fraction of the time reported by recent work on scalable network modeling. Table 3 lists the networks that we tested on, ranging in size from N = 58K to N = 1.1M. With a few exceptions, the experiments were conducted with ? = 50 and 4 computational threads. In particular, for every network, we picked ? to be larger than the average degree, thus minimizing the amount of triangle data lost to subsampling. Figure 2 plots the training and heldout variational lower bound for several experiments, and shows that our algorithm always converges in 2-5 data passes. We wish to highlight two experiments, namely the Brightkite network for K = 64, and the Stanford network for K = 5 (the first and fifth rows respectively in Table 3). Gopalan et al. ([5]) reported convergence on Brightkite in 8 days using their scalable a-MMSB algorithm with 4 threads, while Ho et al. ([8]) converged on Stanford in 18.5 hours using the MMTM Gibbs algorithm on 1 thread. In both settings, our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster ? using 4 threads, it converged on Brightkite and Stanford in just 12 and 4 minutes respectively, as seen in Figure 2. In summary, we have constructed a latent space network model with O(N K) parameters and devised a stochastic variational algorithm for O(N K) inference. Our implementation allows network analysis with millions of nodes N and hundreds of roles K in hours on a single multi-core machine, with competitive or improved accuracy for latent space recovery and link prediction. These results are orders of magnitude faster than recent work on scalable latent space network modeling [5, 8]. Acknowledgments This work was supported by AFOSR FA9550010247, NIH 1R01GM093156 and DARPA FA87501220324 to Eric P. Xing. Qirong Ho is supported by an A-STAR, Singapore fellowship. Junming Yin is supported by a Ray and Stephanie Lane Research Fellowship. 8 References [1] E. Airoldi, D. Blei, S. Fienberg, and E. Xing. Mixed membership stochastic blockmodels. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:1981?2014, 2008. [2] S. Amari. Natural gradient works efficiently in learning. Neural Computation, 10(2):251?276, 1998. [3] L. Bottou. Stochastic learning. Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning, pages 146?168, 2004. [4] M. Carman, F. Crestani, M. Harvey, and M. Baillie. Towards query log based personalization using topic models. In Proceedings of the 19th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management (CIKM ?10), pages 1849?1852, 2010. [5] P. Gopalan, D. Mimno, S. Gerrish, M. Freedman, and D. Blei. Scalable inference of overlapping communities. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2258?2266. 2012. [6] M. Granovetter. The strength of weak ties. American Journal of Sociology, 78(6):1360?1380, 1973. [7] Q. Ho, A. Parikh, and E. Xing. A multiscale community blockmodel for network exploration. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 107(499), 2012. [8] Q. Ho, J. Yin, and E. Xing. On triangular versus edge representations ? towards scalable modeling of networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2141?2149. 2012. [9] P. Hoff, A. Raftery, and M. Handcock. Latent space approaches to social network analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(460):1090?1098, 2002. [10] M. Hoffman, D. Blei, C. Wang, and J. Paisley. Stochastic variational inference. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14:1303?1347, 2013. [11] D. Hunter, S. Goodreau, and M. Handcock. Goodness of fit of social network models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103(481):248?258, 2008. [12] A. Lancichinetti, S. Fortunato, and J. Kert?esz. Detecting the overlapping and hierarchical community structure in complex networks. New Journal of Physics, 11(3):033015+, 2009. [13] Y. Low, D. Agarwal, and A. Smola. Multiple domain user personalization. In Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD ?11), pages 123?131, 2011. [14] K. Miller, T. Griffiths, and M. Jordan. Nonparametric latent feature models for link prediction. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 22, pages 1276?1284. 2009. [15] R. Milo, S. Shen-Orr, S. Itzkovitz, N. Kashtan, D. Chklovskii, and U. Alon. Network motifs: Simple building blocks of complex networks. Science, 298(5594):824?827, 2002. [16] M. Morris, M. Handcock, and D. Hunter. Specification of exponential-family random graph models: Terms and computational aspects. Journal of Statistical Software, 24(4), 2008. [17] M. Newman, S. Strogatz, and D. Watts. Random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions and their applications. Physical Review E, 64(2), 2001. [18] H. Robbins and S. Monro. A stochastic approximation method. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22(3):400?407, 1951. [19] P. Sarkar and A. Moore. Dynamic social network analysis using latent space models. ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, 7(2):31?40, 2005. [20] M. Sato. Online model selection based on the variational Bayes. Neural Computation, 13(7):1649?1681, 2001. [21] G. Simmel and K. Wolff. The Sociology of Georg Simmel. Free Press, 1950. [22] M. Wainwright and M. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 1(1-2):1?305, 2008. [23] J. Xie, S. Kelley, and B. Szymanski. Overlapping community detection in networks: the state of the art and comparative study. ACM Computing Surveys, 45(4), 2013. [24] J. Yang and J. Leskovec. Defining and evaluating network communities based on ground-truth. In Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Workshop on Mining Data Semantics. ACM, 2012. 9
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Relevance Topic Model for Unstructured Social Group Activity Recognition Fang Zhao Yongzhen Huang Liang Wang Tieniu Tan Center for Research on Intelligent Perception and Computing Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences {fang.zhao,yzhuang,wangliang,tnt}@nlpr.ia.ac.cn Abstract Unstructured social group activity recognition in web videos is a challenging task due to 1) the semantic gap between class labels and low-level visual features and 2) the lack of labeled training data. To tackle this problem, we propose a ?relevance topic model? for jointly learning meaningful mid-level representations upon bagof-words (BoW) video representations and a classifier with sparse weights. In our approach, sparse Bayesian learning is incorporated into an undirected topic model (i.e., Replicated Softmax) to discover topics which are relevant to video classes and suitable for prediction. Rectified linear units are utilized to increase the expressive power of topics so as to explain better video data containing complex contents and make variational inference tractable for the proposed model. An efficient variational EM algorithm is presented for model parameter estimation and inference. Experimental results on the Unstructured Social Activity Attribute dataset show that our model achieves state of the art performance and outperforms other supervised topic model in terms of classification accuracy, particularly in the case of a very small number of labeled training videos. 1 Introduction The explosive growth of web videos makes automatic video classification important for online video search and indexing. Classifying short video clips which contain simple motions and actions has been solved well in standard datasets (such as KTH [1], UCF-Sports [2] and UCF50 [3]). However, detecting complex activities, specially social group activities [4], in web videos is a more difficult task because of unstructured activity context and complex multi-object interaction. In this paper, we focus on the task of automatic classification of unstructured social group activities (e.g., wedding dance, birthday party and graduation ceremony in Figure 1), where the low-level features have innate limitations in semantic description of the underlying video data and only a few labeled training videos are available. Thus, a common method is to learn human-defined (or semi-human-defined) semantic concepts as mid-level representations to help video classification [4]. However, those human defined concepts are hardly generalized to a larger or new dataset. To discover more powerful representations for classification, we propose a novel supervised topic model called ?relevance topic model? to automatically extract latent ?relevance? topics from bag-of-words (BoW) video representations and simultaneously learn a classifier with sparse weights. Our model is built on Replicated Softmax [5], an undirected topic model which can be viewed as a family of different-sized Restricted Boltzmann Machines that share parameters. Sparse Bayesian learning [6] is incorporated to guide the topic model towards learning more predictive topics which are associated with sparse classifier weights. We refer to those topics corresponding to non-zero weights as ?relevance? topics. Meanwhile, binary stochastic units in Replicated Softmax are replaced by rectified linear units [7], which allows each unit to express more information for better 1 (a) Wedding Dance (b) Birthday Party (c) Graduation Ceremony Figure 1: Example videos of the ?Wedding Dance?, ?Birthday Party? and ?Graduation Ceremony? classes taken from the USAA dataset [4]. explaining video data containing complex content and also makes variational inference tractable for the proposed model. Furthermore, by using a simple quadratic bound on the log-sum-exp function [8], an efficient variational EM algorithm is developed for parameter estimation and inference. Our model is able to be naturally extended to deal with multi-modal data without changing the learning and inference procedures, which is beneficial for video classification tasks. 2 Related work The problems of activity analysis and recognition have been widely studied. However, most of the existing works [9, 10] were done on constrained videos with limited contents (e.g., clean background and little camera motions). Complex activity recognition in web videos, such as social group activity, is not much explored. Most relevant to our work is a recent work that learns video attributes to analyze social group activity [4]. In [4], a semi-latent attribute space is introduced, which consists of user-defined attributes, class-conditional and background latent attributes, and an extended Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) [11] is used to model those attributes as topics. Different from that, our work discovers a set of discriminative latent topics without extra human annotations on videos. From the view of graphical models, most similar to our model are the maximum entropy discrimination LDA (MedLDA) [12] and the generative Classification Restricted Boltzmann Machines (gClassRBM) [13], both of which have been successfully applied to document semantic analysis. MedLDA integrates the max-margin learning and hierarchical directed topic models by optimizing a single objective function with a set of expected margin constraints. MedLDA tries to estimate parameters and find latent topics in a max-margin sense, which is different from our model relying on the principle of automatic relevance determination [14]. The gClassRBM used to model word count data is actually a supervised Replicated Softmax. Different from the gClassRBM, instead of point estimation of classifier parameters, our proposed model learns a sparse posterior distribution over parameters within a Bayesian paradigm. 3 Models and algorithms We start with the description of Replicated Softmax, and then by integrating it with sparse Bayesian learning, propose the relevance topic model for videos. Finally, we develop an efficient variational algorithm for inference and parameter estimation. 3.1 Replicated Softmax The Replicated Softmax model is a two-layer undirected graphical model, which can be used to model sparse word count data and extract latent semantic topics from document collections. Replicated Softmax allows for very efficient inference and learning, and outperforms LDA in terms of both the generalization performance and the retrieval accuracy on text datasets. As shown in Figure 2 (left), this model is a generalization of the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). The bottom layer represents a multinomial visible unit sampled K times (K is the total number of words in a document) and the top layer represents binary stochastic hidden units. 2 tr h W1 ?c ... W W2 ?c v y v C Figure 2: Left: Replicated Softmax model: an undirected graphical model. Right: Relevance topic model: a mixed graphical model. The undirected part models the marginal distribution of video BoW vectors v and the directed part models the conditional distribution of video classes y given latent topics tr by using a hierarchical prior on weights ? . Let a word count vector v ? NN be the visible unit (N is the size of the vocabulary), and a binary topic vector h ? {0, 1}F be the hidden units. Then the energy function of the state {v, h} is defined as follows: F N F N X X X X Wij vi hj ? ai vi ? K bj hj , (1) E(v, h; ?) = ? i=1 j=1 i=1 j=1 where ? = {W, a, b}, Wij is the weight connected with vi and hj , ai and bj are the bias terms of visible and hidden units respectively. The joint distribution over the visible and hidden units is defined by: XX 1 exp(?E(v, h; ?)), Z(?) = exp(?E(v, h; ?)), (2) P (v, h; ?) = Z(?) v h where Z(?) is the partition function. Since exact maximum likelihood learning is intractable, the contrastive divergence [15] approximation is often used to estimate model parameters in practice. 3.2 Relevance topic model The relevance topic model (RTM) is an integration of sparse Bayesian learning and Replicated Softmax, the main idea of which is to jointly learn discriminative topics as mid-level video representations and sparse discriminant function as a video classifier. We represent the video dataset with class labels y ? {1, ..., C} as D = {(vm , ym )}M m=1 , where each video is represented as a BoW vector v ? NN . Consider modeling video BoW vectors using the Replicated Softmax. Let tr = [tr1 , ..., trF ] denotes a F-dimensional topic vector of one video. According to Equation 2, the marginal distribution over the BoW vector v is given by: 1 X P (v; ?) = exp(?E(v, tr ; ?)), (3) Z(?) tr Since videos contain more complex and diverse contents than documents, binary topics are far from ideal to explain video data. We replace binary hidden units in the original Replicated Softmax with rectified linear units which are given by: trj = max(0, tj ), P (tj |v; ?) = N (tj |Kbj + N X Wij vi , 1), (4) i=1 where N (?|?, ? ) denotes a Gaussian distribution with mean ? and variance ? . The rectified linear units taking nonnegative real values can preserve information about relative importance of topics. Meanwhile, the rectified Gaussian distribution is semi-conjugate to the Gaussian likelihood. This facilitates the development of variational algorithms for posterior inference and parameter estimation, which we describe in Section 3.3. ?y }C Let ? = {? y=1 denote a set of class-specific weight vectors. We define the discriminant function as a linear combination of topics: F (y, tr , ? ) = ? Ty tr . The conditional distribution of classes is 3 defined as follows: P (y|tr , ? ) = PC exp(F (y, tr , ? )) y 0 =1 exp(F (y 0 , tr , ? )) , (5) and the classifier is given by: y? = arg max E[F (y, tr , ? )|v]. (6) y?C The weights ? are given a zero-mean Gaussian prior: ?|? ?) = P (? C Y F Y P (?yj |?yj ) = y=1 j=1 C Y F Y ?1 N (?yj |0, ?yj ), (7) y=1 j=1 ? y }C where ? = {? y=1 is a set of hyperparameter vectors, and each hyperparameter ?yj is assigned independently to each weight ?yj . The hyperpriors over ? are given by Gamma distributions: ?) = P (? C Y F Y C Y F Y P (?yj ) = y=1 j=1 ?1 c c?1 ?d? d ?yj e , ?(c) (8) y=1 j=1 where ?(c) is the Gamma function. To obtain broad hyperpriors, we set c and d to small values, e.g., c = d = 10?4 . This hierarchical prior, which is a type of automatic relevance determination prior [14], enables the posterior probability of the weights ? to be concentrated at zero and thus effectively switch off the corresponding topics that are considered to be irrelevant to classification. Finally, given the parameters ?, RTM defines the joint distribution:   Y Y F C Y F P (?yj |?yj )P (?yj ) . P (tj |v; ?) P (v, y, tr , ? , ? ; ?) = P (v; ?)P (y|tr , ? ) j=1 (9) y=1 j=1 Figure 2 (right) illustrates RTM as a mixed graphical model with undirected and directed edges. The undirected part models the marginal distribution of video data and the directed part models the conditional distribution of classes given latent topics. We can naturally extend RTM to Multimodal RTM by using the undirected part to model the multimodal data v = {vmodl }L l=1 . Accordingly, QL modl modl P (v; ?) in Equation 9 is replaced with l=1 P (v ;? ). In Section 3.3, we can see that it will not change learning and inference rules. 3.3 Parameter estimation and inference For RTM, we wish to find parameters ? = {W, a, b} that maximize the log likelihood on D: Z M ?d? ?, log P (D; ?) = log P ({vm , ym , trm }M (10) m=1 , ? , ? ; ?)d{tm }m=1 d? ?, ? |D; ?) = P (? ?, ? , D; ?)/P (D; ?). Since exactly computand learn the posterior distribution P (? ing P (D; ?) is intractable, we employ variational methods to optimize a lower bound L on the log likelihood by introducing a variational distribution to approximate P ({tm }M m=1 , ? , ? |D; ?): Y  M Y F ?)q(? ?). Q({tm }M q(tmj ) q(? (11) m=1 , ? , ? ) = m=1 j=1 Using Jensens inequality, we have: Z log P (D; ?) > Q({tm }M m=1 , ? , ? ) Q  M r ?|? ?)P (? ?) P (v ; ?)P (y |t , ? )P (t |v ; ?) P (? m m m m m m=1 ?d? ?. (12) d{tm }M log m=1 d? Q({tm }M m=1 , ? , ? ) Note that P (ym |trm , ? ) is not conjugate to the Gaussian prior, which makes it intractable to compute ?) and q(tmj ). Here we use a quadratic bound on the log-sum-exp (LSE) the variational factors q(? function [8] to derive a further bound. We rewrite P (ym |trm , ? ) as follows: T P (ym |trm , ? ) = exp(ym Trm ? ? lse(Trm ? )), 4 (13) where Trm ? = [(trm )T ? 1 , ..., (trm )T ? C?1 ], ym = I(ym = c) is the one-of-C encoding of class PC?1 label ym and lse(x) , log(1 + y0 =1 exp(xy0 )) (we set ? C = 0 to ensure identifiability). In [8], the LSE function is expanded as a second order Taylor series around a point ? , and an upper bound ?) with a fixed matrix A = 12 [IC ? ? C ?1+1 1C ? 1TC ? ] is found by replacing the Hessian matrix H(? ? ?), where C = C ? 1, IC ? is the identity matrix of size M ? M and 1C ? is a such that A  H(? M -vector of ones. Thus, similar to [16], we have: 1 T log P (ym |trm , ? ) > J(ym , trm , ? , ? m ) = ym Trm ? ? (Trm ? )T ATrm ? + sTm Trm ? ? ?i , 2 ?m ? exp(? ?m ? lse(? ?m )), sm = A? 1 ?m ? ?Tm exp(? ?m ? lse(? ?m )) + lse(? ?m ), ?i = ?Tm A? 2 (14) (15) (16) ? where ? m ? RC is a vector of variational parameters. Substituting J(ym , trm , ? , ? m ) into Equation 11, we can obtain a further lower bound: log P (D; ?) > L(?, ? ) = M X log P (vm ; ?) + EQ m=1 + M X X M J(ym , trm , ? , ? m ) m=1  ?|? ?) + log P (? ?) ? Q({tm }M log P (tm |vm ; ?) + log P (? , ? , ? ) . (17) m=1 m=1 Now we convert the problem of model training into maximizing the lower bound L(?, ? ) with ?), q(? ?) and q(t) = {q(tmj )} as well as the parameters respect to the variational posteriors q(? ?m }. We can give some insights into the objective function L(?, ? ): the first term ? and ? = {? is exactly the marginal log likelihood of video data and the second term is a variational bound of the conditional log likelihood of classes, thus maximizing L(?, ? ) is equivalent to finding a set of model parameters and latent topics which could fit video data well and simultaneously make good predictions for video classes. Due to the conjugacy properties of the chosen distributions, we can directly calculate free-form ?), q(? ?) and parameters ? : variational posteriors q(? ?) = N (? ?|E? , V? ), q(? ?) = q(? F C Y Y (18) Gamma(?yj |? c, d?yj ), (19) y=1 j=1 ? = hTrm iq(t) E? , (20) where h?iq denotes an exception with respect to the distribution q and V? = X M r T (Tm ) ATrm q(t) + diagh?yj iq(??) ?1 , E? = V? m=1 M X (Trm )T q(t) (ym + sm ), m=1 (21) 1 2 1 . c? = c + , d?yj = d + ?yj ?) q(? 2 2 (22) For q(t), the calculation is not immediate because of the rectification. Inspired by [17], we have the following free-form solution: q(tmj ) = ?pos ?neg 2 2 N (tmj |?pos , ?pos )u(tmj ) + N (tmj |?neg , ?neg )u(?tmj ), Z Z (23) where u(?) is the unit step function. See Appendix A for parameters of q(tmj ). Given ?, through repeating the updates of Equations 18-20 and 23 to maximize L(?, ? ), we can ?), q(? ?) and q(t). Then given q(? ?), q(? ?) and q(t), we estimate obtain the variational posteriors q(? ? by using stochastic gradient descent to maximize L(?, ? ), and the derivatives of L(?, ? ) with 5 respect to ? are given by:   M N X r 1 X ?L(?, ? ) r = vi tj data ? vi tj model + vmi htmj iq(t) ? Wij vmi ? Kbj , ?Wij M m=1 i=1 ?L(?, ? ) = hvi idata ? hvi imodel , ?ai  M  N X r ?L(?, ? ) r K X = tj data ? tj model + htmj iq(t) ? Wij vmi ? Kbj , ?bj M m=1 i=1 where the derivatives of PM m=1 (24) (25) (26) log P (vm ; ?) are the same as those in [5]. This leads to the following variational EM algorithm: ?), q(? ?) and q(t). E-step: Calculate variational posteriors q(? M-step: Estimate parameters ? = {W, a, b} through maximizing L(?, ? ). These two steps are repeated until L(?, ? ) converges. For the Multimodal RTM learning, we just additionally calculate the gradients of ?modl for each modality l in the M-step while the updating rules are not changed. After the learning is completed, according to Equation 6 the prediction for new videos can be easily obtained: y? = arg max ? Ty q(??) htr ip(t|v;?) . (27) y?C 4 Experiments We test our models on the Unstructured Social Activity Attribute (USAA) dataset 1 for social group activity recognition. Firstly, we present quantitative evaluations of RTM in the case of different modalities and comparisons with other supervised topic models (namely MedLDA and gClassRBM). Secondly, we compare Multimodal RTM with some baselines in the case of plentiful and sparse training data respectively. In all experiments, the contrastive divergence is used to efficiently approximate the derivatives of the marginal log likelihood and the unsupervised training on Replicated Softmax is used to initialize ?. 4.1 Dataset and video representation The USAA dataset consists of 8 semantic classes of social activity videos collected from the Internet. The eight classes are: birthday party, graduation party, music performance, non-music performance, parade, wedding ceremony, wedding dance and wedding reception. The dataset contains a total of 1466 videos and approximate 100 videos per-class for training and testing respectively. These videos range from 20 seconds to 8 minutes averaging 3 minutes and contain very complex and diverse contents, which brings significant challenges for content analysis. Each video is represented using three modalities, i.e., static appearance, motion, and auditory. Specifically, three visual and audio local keypoint features are extracted for each video: scaleinvariant feature transform (SIFT) [18], spatial-temporal interest points (STIP) [19] and melfrequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) [20]. Then the three features are collected into a BoW vector (5000 dimensions for SIFT and STIP, and 4000 dimensions for MFCC) using a soft-weighting clustering algorithm, respectively. 4.2 Model comparisons To evaluate the discriminative power of video topics learned by RTM, we present quantitative classification results compared with other supervised topic models (MedLDA and gClassRBM) in the case of different modalities. We have tried our best to tune these compared models and report the best results. 1 Available at http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/?yf300/USAA/download/. 6 Table 1: Classification accuracy of different supervised topic models for single-modal features. Feature SIFT Model Accuracy (%) 20 topics 30 topics 40 topics 50 topics 60 topics Med LDA 44.72 44.17 43.07 42.80 40.74 gClass RBM 45.40 46.11 47.08 46.81 49.72 STIP RTM 51.99 53.09 55.83 54.17 54.03 Med LDA 37.28 38.93 40.85 39.75 41.54 gClass RBM 42.39 42.25 42.39 41.70 43.35 MFCC RTM 48.29 49.11 50.62 51.71 51.17 Med LDA 34.71 38.55 41.15 41.98 38.27 gClass RBM 41.70 43.62 45.00 44.31 43.48 RTM 45.35 46.67 48.15 47.46 47.33 Table 2: Classification accuracy of different methods for multimodal features. Method 100 Inst Accuracy (%) 10 Inst Multimodal RTM 60 topics 90 topics 120 topics 150 topics 180 topics 60 topics 90 topics 120 topics 150 topics 180 topics 60.22 62.69 63.79 64.06 64.72 38.68 41.29 43.48 43.72 44.99 RS+SVM 54.60 56.10 57.34 59.26 60.63 23.73 28.53 30.59 33.47 35.94 Direct SVM-UD+LR SLAS+LR 66.0 65.0 65.0 29.0 37.0 40.0 Table 1 shows the classification accuracy of different models for three single-modal features: SIFT, STIP and MFCC. We can see that RTM achieves higher classification accuracy than MedLDA and gClassRBM in all cases, which demonstrates that through leveraging sparse Bayesian learning to incorporate class label information into topic modeling, RTM can find more discriminative topical representations for complex video data. 4.3 Baseline comparisons We compare Multimodal RTM with the baselines in [4] which are the best results on the USAA dataset: Direct Direct SVM or KNN classification on raw video BoW vectors (14000 dimensions), where SVM is used for experiments with more than 10 instances and KNN otherwise. SVM-UD+LR SVM attribute classifiers learn 69 user-defined attributes, and then a logistic regression (LR) classifier is performed according to the attribute classifier outputs. SLAS+LR Semi-latent attribute space is learned, and then a LR classifier is performed based on the 69 user-defined, 8 class-conditional and 8 latent topics. Besides, we also perform a comparison with another baseline where different modal topics extracted by Replicated Softmax are connected together as video representations, and then a multi-class SVM classifier [21] is learned from the representations. This baseline is denoted by RS+SVM. The results are illustrated in Table 2. Here the number of topics of each modality is assumed to be the same. When the labeled training data is plentiful (100 instances per class), the classification performance of Multimodal RTM is similar to the baselines in [4]. However, We argue that our model learns a lower dimensional latent semantic space which provides efficient video representations and is able to be better generalized to a larger or new dataset because extra human defined concepts are not required in our model. When considering the classification scenario where only a very small number of training data are available (10 instances per class), Multimodal RTM can achieve better performance with an appropriate number (e.g., > 90) of topics because the sparsity of relevance topics learned by RTM can effectively prevent overfitting to specific training instances. In addition, our model outperforms RS+SVM in both cases, which demonstrates the advantage of jointly learning topics and classifier weights through sparse Bayesian learning. It is also interesting to examine the sparsity of relevance topics. Figure 3 illustrates the degree of correlation between topics and two different classes. We can see that the learned relevance topics are very sparse, which leads to good generalisation for new instances and robustness for small datasets. 7 Figure 3: Relevance topics discovered by RTM for two different classes. Vertical axis indicates the degree of positive and negative correlation. 5 Conclusion This paper has proposed a supervised topic model, the relevance topic model (RTM), to jointly learn discriminative latent topical representations and a sparse classifer for recognizing unstructured social group activity. In RTM, sparse Bayisian learning is integrated with an undirected topic model to discover sparse relevance topics. Rectified linear units are employed to better fit complex video data and facilitate the learning of the model. Efficient variational methods are developed for parameter estimation and inference. To further improve video classification performance, RTM is also extended to deal with multimodal data. Experimental results demonstrate that RTM can find more predictive video topics than other supervised topic models and achieve state of the art classification performance, particularly in the scenario of lacking labeled training videos. Appendix A. Parameters of free-form variational posterior q(tmj ) The expressions of parameters in q(tmj ) (Equation 23) are listed as follows: 2 2 ?pos = N (?|?, ? + 1), ?pos = (? ?1 + 1)?1 , ?pos = ?pos ( ? + ?), ? 2 ?neg = N (?|0, ?), ?neg = 1, ?neg = ?,     1 ??pos 1 ?neg Z = ?pos erfc q + ?neg erfc q , 2 2 2 2 2?pos 2?neg where erfc(?) is the complementary error function and  + P * ? ?j ym + sm ? j 0 6=j ? ?j 0 Atrmj 0 ?= , ??j A? ?T?j ?)q(t) q(? N D E?1 X ?T?j ? = ? ?j A? , ?= Wij vmi + Kbj . ?) q(? (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) i=1 We can see that q(tmj ) depends on expectations over ? and {tmj 0 }j 0 6=j , which is consistent with the graphical model representation of RTM in Figure 2. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB316300), Hundred Talents Program of CAS, National Natural Science Foundation of China (61175003, 61135002, 61203252), and Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology Crossdiscipline Foundation. 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Adaptive Soft Weight Tying using Gaussian Mixtures Steven J. Nowlan Geoffrey E. Hinton Computational Neuroscience Laboratory The Salk Institute, P.O . Box 5800 San Diego, CA 92186-5800 Department of Computer Science . Uni versi ty of Toran to Toronto, Canada M5S lA4 Abstract One way of simplifying neural networks so they generalize better is to add an extra t.erm 10 the error fUll c tion that will penalize complexit.y. \Ve prop ose a new pe nalt.y t.erm in which the dist rihution of weight values is modelled as a mixture of multiple gaussians . Cnder this model, a set of weights is simple if the weights can be clustered into subsets so that the weights in each cluster have similar values . We allow the parameters of the mixture model to adapt at t.he same time as t.he network learns. Simulations demonstrate that this complexity term is more effective than previous complexity terms. 1 Introduction A major problem in training artificial nellral network:> is to ellsure t.hat th ey wIll gel/eraiIze well to ra...,f'~ thaI they h(lvl> 1I0t been tralHeu OIl. SUIlle recellt t.heuretical results (Baurn anu Iiallssier. 10S~I) Itav e :,.ug,g,e~teU that ill order to guaralltee goou generalizatioll Ilw <IIIIOllnl of lllforillatiull requireJ te. dlr"L"t1~ "p~'c if~ Ihe Ulltput vectors of all t.he t rallllng casps ll11l..;t he considerahly larg,t>r than t hI' lllllTlber of independellt weight:,. III th e ll t' twork III 1I1any practI cal problt'lllS there IS only a small amount of labelled data available for traming and this creates problellls for any approach that uses a large. homogeneous network with many indepeIldent weights. As a result. there has been much recent int.erest in techniques that can train large networks wil h relatively small amounts of labelled data and still provide good generalization performance . In order to improve generalization, t.he number of free parameters in the network must be reduced. Olle of the oldest and simplest approaches to removing excess degrees of fr eedolll from a net work i~ to add an ext fa term 10 the error [Ullct 1011 993 994 Nowlan and Hinton that penalizes complexity: cost = data-misfit + A complexity (1) During learning, the network is trying to find a locally optimal trade-off between the data-misfit (the usual error term) and the complexity of the net. The relative importance of these two terms can be estimated by finding the value of A that optimizes generalization to a validation set. Probably the simplest approximation to complexity is the sum of the squares of the weights, Differentiating this complexity measure leads to simple weight decay (Plaut, Nowlan and Hinton, 1986) in which each weight decays towards zero at a rate that is proportional to its magnitude. This decay is countered by the gradient of the error term, so weights which are not critical to network performance, and hence always have small error gradients, decay away leaving only the weights necessary to solve the problem. Li w;. The use of a Li'IV; penalty term can also be interpreted from a Bayesian perspective. l The "complexity" of a set of weights, may be described as its negat.ive log probahilit.y dellsit.y under a radially symmetric gaussian prior distribution on the weights. The distribution is centered at the origin and has variance 1/A. For multilayer networks, it is hard to find a good theoretical justificatioll for this prior, but Hinton (1987) justifies it empirically by sllOwiug tllat it greatly improves generalizat.ioll on a very difficult, task. MOI'e recently, Mackay (1991) has shown that even better generalization can be achieved by using different values of A for the weights in different layers. ALi w;, 2 A more conlplex measure of network complexity If we wish to eliminate small weights without forcing large weights away from the values they lleed to model the data, we can use a prior which is a mixture of a narrow (n) and a broad (b) gaussian, both centered at zero. p(w) = tr n 1 yI2; e -5 + trb ~ 1-6e 2"n 27rl1 n 27rl1 b b (2) where tr n and trb are the mixing proportions of the two gaussians and are therefore constrained to sum to l. Assuming that. the weight values were generated from a gaussian mixture, the conditional probability that a particular weight, Wi, was generated by a particular gaussian, j, is called the responsibility of that gaussian fOI' the weight and is: (3) where Pj(Wj) is the probahilit.y density of Wi under gaussian j. When the mixing proportions of t.lw two gatlssians are comparable, t.he llal'l'OW gaussian gets most of the responsibilit.y for a small weight. Adopting the Bayesiall perspective, the cost of a weight under the narrow gaussian is proportional to w 2 /2l1~. As long as l1 n is quite small there will be strong pressure to reduce the magnitude 1 R. Szeliski, personal communication, 1985. Adaptive Soft Weight Tying using Gaussian Mixtures of small weights even further. Conversely, the broad gaussian takes most of the responsibility for large weight values, so there is much less pressure to reduce them. In the limiting case when the broad gaussian becomes a unifonTI distribution, there is almost no pressure to reduce very large weights because they are almost certainly generated by the uniform distribution. A complexity term very similar to this limiting case is used in t.he "weight elimination" technique of CWeigend, Huberman and Rumelhart, 1990) to improve generalization for a time series prediction task. 2 3 Adaptive Gaussian Mixtures and Soft Weight-Sharing A mixture of a narrow, zero-mean gaussian with a broad gaussian Or a uniform allows us to favor networks with many near-zero weights, and this improves generalization on many tasks. But practical experience with hand-coded weight constraints has also shown that great improvements can be achieved by constraining particular subsets of the weights t.o share the same value (Lang, '-\Taibel and Hinton, 1990; Le Cun, 1989). Mixtures of zero-mean gaussians and uniforms canllot implement this type of symllletry constraint. If however, we use multiple gaussians and allow their means and variances to adapt as t.lw lIetwol?k learns, we call implemellt a "soft" version of weight.-sharing III which the leawing algoritlllll decides for itself which weights should be t.ied together. (We may also allow the lllixillg, proportiolls to adapt so that. we are 1I0t assulllillg all sets of tied weights al?e the sallle size.) The basic idea is t.hat a gallssiall which takps responsibility for a subset of the weights will squeeze those weight.s t.ogether since it can then have a lower variance and assign a higher probability dellsit.y t.o each weight. If t.he gaussialls all start with high variallce, the initial division of weights into subsets will be very soft . As the variances shrink and the network learns, the decisions about how to group the weights iuto subsets are influenced by the task the network is learning t.o perforul. To make t.hese intuit.ive ideas a bit more concrete, \ve may define a cost function of the general form given in (1): (4) 0"; where is the variance of the squared error and each Pj (wd is a gaussian density with mean /1j and standard deviation O"j. \Ve optimize this function by adjusting the Wi and the mixture parameters 1fj, /1j, and O"j, and O"y.3 The partial derivative of C with respect to each weight is the sum of the usual squared error derivative and a term due to the complexity cost for the weight: (5) 2See (N owl au, 1991) for a precise descri pt iOll of t.he rela.tionshi p bet.weeu rni xture models and the model Ilsed by (Weigend. Huherman a.nd Rllmelltart. 1990). Jl/a~ lllay be tlLOUgltt of as playillg tlte sallle role a.s A ill equatiou 1 ill detcrminiug a trade-off between the misfit. auo complexity costs . K is a 1I0rlllaiiting factor ba.sed 011 it gaussia.u error LLlude!. 995 996 Nowlan and Hinton Method Vanilla Back Prop. Cross Valid. Weight Elimination Soft-share - 5 Compo Soft-share - 10 Compo Train % Correct 100.0 ? 0.0 98.8 ? 1.1 100 .0 ? 0.0 100.0 ? 0.0 100.0 ? 0.0 Test % Correct 67.3 ? 5.7 83.5 ? 5.1 89.8 ? 3.0 95.6 ? 2.7 97.1 ? 2.1 Table 1: SUllllllal'y of generalization performance of 5 different training techniques on the shift detection problem. The derivative of the complexity cost term is simply a weighted sum of the difference between the weight value and the center of each of the gaussians. The weighting factors are the responsibility measures defined in equation 3 and if over time a single gaussian claims most of the responsibility for a particular weight the effect of the complexity cost t.erm is simply to pull the weight towards the center of the responsible gaussian. The strength of this force is inversely proport.ional to the variance of the gaussian. In the simulations described below, all of the parameters (Wi, Pj, (Jj, 7rj) are updated simultaneously using a conjugate gradient descent procedure. To prevent variances shrinking too fast or going negative we optimize log (Jj rather than (Jj. To ensure that the mixing proportions sum t.o 1 and are positive, we optimize Xj where trj = exp(xj)/ L exp(x/,;). For furtiter details see (Nowlan and Hinton, 1992). 4 SilTIulation Results V>le compared the gelleralization performance of soft weight-tying to other techniques on two different. problems. The first problem, a 20 input., one output shift detection !letwork, vvas chosell because it was biJlary problem for which solutiotls which generalize well exhibit a lot. of repeat.ed weight structure. The generalizatioll perfOrlllallCt? of lwtworks trailled using, the co:st Cl"it.erion giveJl ill equation 4 was compared to Ilet.works t.rained in three other ways: No cost term to penalize complexity; No explicit complexity cost. term, but use of a validat.ion set to terminate learning; Weight elimination (Wf'igelld, Huberman a.nd Rumelhart, 1990)4. The simulation results art' sllmmarized in Table 1. The network had 20 input units, 10 hidden units, and a single output unit and contained 101 weights. The first 10 input units in this network were given a random binary pattern, and the second group of 10 input units were given the same pattern circularly shifted by 1 bit left or right. The desired output of the network was +1 for a left shift. and -1 for a right shift. A data set of 2400 patterns was created by randomly generating a 10 bit string, and choosing with equal probability to shift the string left or right. The data set was divided into 100 training cases, 1000 validation cnses, and 1:WO t.est. cases. The training :set was deliberat.ely chosen to be very small ? 5% of possible patterns) to explore the region in which complexity penalties should have the largest. impa.ct . Ten simulations were performed with each 4With a fixed value of >. chosen by cross-validation. Adaptive Soft Weight Tying using Gaussian Mixtures 1,' 1.3 I.Z 1.1 0.9 0 .8 0.7 0.& 0.5 0 ?? 0.3 0.2 o. ~-l=+7+=~~~+::=f=*B~:;::+:=+-'H+~\~=+=l~ 1 - -4.5-4-l.5?~-2.5-2-1,5-1-o,5 0 0,5 11,5 2 2.5 l,5 ? ',5 5 Figure 1: Final mixture probability density for a typical solution to the shift detection problem. Five of the components in the mixture can be seen as distinct bumps in the probabilit.y densit.y. Of the remaining five components, two have been eliminated by having their mixing proportions go to zero and the other three are very broad and form the baseline offset of the density function. method, starting frolll ten difl?erent. initial weight sets (t.e. each method used the same ten initial weight. configurations). The final weight distl'ihlltiolls discovered by the soft weight-tyiug technique are shown in Figlll'e 1. There is no significant component with mean O. The classical assumpt.ioll t.hat. the nt't.work collt.aiw; a large lIulllber of illessellt.ial weight.s which can be eliI1IilIated to ililprove generalizatioll is lIOt appropriate COL' this problelll aBd network arcilitecture. Tilis may explaiu why the weight elimination model used by 'Veigend ef af ('Veigend, Huberman and Rumelhart, 1990) performs relatively poorly in this si tuation. The second task chosen to evaluate the effectiveness of our complexity penalty was the prediction of the yearly sunspot average from the averages of previous years . This task has been well studied as a time-series prediction benchmark in the statistics literature (Priestley, 1991b; Priestley, 19910.) and has also been investigated by (Weigend, Huberman and Rumelhart, 1990) using a complexity penalty similar to the one discllssed in section 2. The network archit.ect.me Llsed was identical to the one used in the study by VVeigend et af: The Iwtwork had 1L input. unit.s which represent.ed the yearly average from til<-' preceding lL years, 8 hidden unit.s, and a silIgle lillear output unit which represented the predictioll for tlw averagl' Illllllhu' of SllIlSPOt.S ill t.he current year. Yearly sunspot dat.a from l700 to uno wa:-; lIsed to train the lIetwork to perform this OllCstep prediction task, aud t.he evaluation of the network was based on data from 997 998 Nowlan and Hinton Method TAR RBF \VRH Soft-share - 3 Compo Soft-share - 8 Compo Test arv 0.097 0.092 0.086 0.077 ? 0.0029 0.072 ? 0.0022 Table 2: Summary of average relat,ivp variance of 5 different models on the one-step sunspot prediction problelll. 1921 to 1955. 5 The evaluation of prediction performance used the aver?age relative variance (ar?v) measure discussed in (Weigend, Huberman and Rumelhart, 1990). Simulations were performed using the same conjugate gradient method used for the first problem. Complexity measures based on gaussian mixtures with;) and 8 components were used and ten simulat.ions were performed with each (USillg the same training data but different initial weight configurations). The results of these simulations are summarized in Table 2 along with the best result obtailled by Weigend et at (Weigend, H ubermall and RUlllelhart, 1990) (HI RH), the bilinear auto-regression model of Tong and Lim (Tong ano Lim, 1980) (T A R) 6, and the multi-layer RBF network of He and Lapeoes (lIe alld Lapedes, 1991) (RBF). All figure:::; represent the arv on t.he t.est set. For the mixture complexity models, this is the average over the ten simlllations, plus or minus one standard deviation. Since the results for the models ot.her than the mixture complexity trained networks are based on a single simulation it is difficult to assign statistical signifigance to the differences shown in Table 2. We may note however, that the difference between the 3 and 8 component mixture complexity models is significant (p > 0.95) and the differences bet.ween t.he 8 componellt. model and the other models are much larger . Figure 2 shows an 8 component mixture Blodel of the fillal weight distribution. It is quite unlike t.he distribution ill Figure 1 and is actually quite close to a mixture of two zero-meall gallssians, one hroad ano one lIarrow. This may explain why weight elimination works quite well for t.his t.ask. Weigeno el at point. Ollt that. fOJ" Lillie seri es preoiction tasks sllch as the SUllspot task a mudl rnore int,(' resl.illg nlca:-;llI"t' of performance is th e ability of the Illouel to preoict Illore thall aile t.illlt: st.ep into the fUl.LUe. On e way to appl"Oacll th e Illultistep prediction problem is to llse iterated szng/e-step predzctzon. In this method, the predicted output is fed back as input fOI? the next preJictioll and all otlter illput units have theil' values shifted back Olle unit. Thus t.he input. typically consists of a combination of act.ual and preJicted values. \Vhen preuictillg more thaJl one step int.o the future, the prediction error depends both on how ma.ny steps into the future one is predicting (/) ano on what point in the time series the prediction began. An appropriate enor measure for iterated prediction is the aVe1?age relaltve I-times iter'ated pr'ediclion V(lT"wnce (\Veigend, Huberman and Rumelhart, 1990) 5The aut.hors thallk Andreas vVeigend for providing his version of this data. 6This was the morl el fa.vored b~1 Priestly (Pri estley, 1991a.) in a re cent evaluation of classical stat.istical approaches 1.0 t.his t.ask. Adaptive Soft Weight Tying using Gaussian Mixtures 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.& 1.5 1.. 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0 ?? 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.5 ??. 5 5 Figure 2: Typical final mixture probability density for the SUllspot prediction pl'Oblem with a model containing 8 ruixt.llI'e components. 0.9 0.8 0./ O,r. 0.5 0 .4 0 ,1 0.2 0.1 Figure 3: A verage relative I-times iterated prediction variance versus number of prediction iterations for t.he sunspot. time series from 1921 to 1955. Closed circles represent the TAR model, opell circles the W RH model, closed sljuares the j component complexity 1l10del, and opell squares the ~ componellt complexity lllodei. Ten different set.s of initial weights were used for the 3 and 8 component complexity models and one standard deviation error bars are shown. 999 1000 Nowlan and Hinton which averages predi ctions I steps into the future over all possible starting points. Using this measure , the performance of various models is shown in Figure 3. 5 Sun1mary The simulations we have described provide evidence that the use of a more flexible model for the distribution of weights in a network can lead to better generalization performance than weight decay, weight elimination, or techniques that control the learning time. The flexibility of our model is clearly demonstrated in the very different final weight distributions discovered for the two different problems investigated in this paper. The a.bility to automatically adapt to individual problems suggests that the method should ha.ve broad applicability. Acknowledgements This research was funded by the Ontario ITRC, the Canadian NSERC and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Hiutoll is the Noranda fellow of the Calladiall lllstitute for Advanced Research. References Baum , E. B. allo Hallssler. D. Compu/a/ion.l :151 -- lGO . (I()~~l) . What size net gives vidid generalizat.ioJl ? N ew 'o/ He, X. and Lapedes, A. (1991) . Nonlin ear modelling alld prediction by stlccessive approximation \Ising Radial Basis FUllctioJls. Techllical Report LA-U H.-Yl-lJ75, Los Alamos National Laboratory. Hinton, G. "8. (1987) . Learning t.rallslatioll invariant recognition in a massively parallel network. In Pmc. Conf. Pam/ft'i Al'chitectw'es and Languages EU7"Ope, Eindhoveu . Lang, K. J., Waibel, A. H., and Hint.on, G . E . (1990). A time-delay neural network architecture for isolated word recognition. Neural Networks, 3:23-43. Le Cun, Y . (1989) . Generalization and network design strategies. Technical Report CRGTR-89-4, University of Toronto . MacKay, D. J. C. (1991). Bayesian Modelling and New'al Networ'ks. PhD thesis, Computation and Neural Systems, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA . Nowlan, S. J . (1991) . Soft Competitive Adaptation: New'al Network Learning Algorithms based on Fitting Sta.tistical Mixtures. PhD thesis , School of Computer Science, Carnegie Melloll Uuiversit.y, Pittsburgh, PA. Nowlan, S. J. and Hinton, G. E. (Hlq~) . Sirnplifyillg neural networks by soft weightsharing. New'al ComputatlOlI . III press. Plaut, D. C ., Nowlall , S. J .. alld Hill/on, G . E. (lY86). Experimellt.s 0 11 learllillg by back- propagation. Tech nical Report. CM U-CS-86-l'26, Carnegie-Melloll UIIi versi ty, Pittsburgh PA 15213. Priestley, M. B. (1991a.). Non-lineal' ond Non-stationa ?r y Time Senes Analysis. Acad emic Press. Priestley, M. B. (1~~lb) . Spectml AIHllY8is and Time Series . Academic Press. Tong, H . and Lilli, 1\ . S. (1980) . Threshold autoregression, limit cycles, a.lld cyclical dat.a. 10'l.1mal Royal Stati" tical Society B, 42 . Weigend, A. S., Huberman, B . A., alld Rurnelhart, D. E. (lY90). Predictillg the futur e: A connectiollist approach . lllte,.,w/wllal lou.null of Neuml Systems, 1.
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Streaming Variational Bayes Tamara Broderick, Nicholas Boyd, Andre Wibisono, Ashia C. Wilson University of California, Berkeley {tab@stat, nickboyd@eecs, wibisono@eecs, ashia@stat}.berkeley.edu Michael I. Jordan University of California, Berkeley [email protected] Abstract We present SDA-Bayes, a framework for (S)treaming, (D)istributed, (A)synchronous computation of a Bayesian posterior. The framework makes streaming updates to the estimated posterior according to a user-specified approximation batch primitive. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework, with variational Bayes (VB) as the primitive, by fitting the latent Dirichlet allocation model to two large-scale document collections. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm over stochastic variational inference (SVI) by comparing the two after a single pass through a known amount of data?a case where SVI may be applied?and in the streaming setting, where SVI does not apply. 1 Introduction Large, streaming data sets are increasingly the norm in science and technology. Simple descriptive statistics can often be readily computed with a constant number of operations for each data point in the streaming setting, without the need to revisit past data or have advance knowledge of future data. But these time and memory restrictions are not generally available for the complex, hierarchical models that practitioners often have in mind when they collect large data sets. Significant progress on scalable learning procedures has been made in recent years [e.g., 1, 2]. But the underlying models remain simple, and the inferential framework is generally non-Bayesian. The advantages of the Bayesian paradigm (e.g., hierarchical modeling, coherent treatment of uncertainty) currently seem out of reach in the Big Data setting. An exception to this statement is provided by [3?5], who have shown that a class of approximation methods known as variational Bayes (VB) [6] can be usefully deployed for large-scale data sets. They have applied their approach, referred to as stochastic variational inference (SVI), to the domain of topic modeling of document collections, an area with a major need for scalable inference algorithms. VB traditionally uses the variational lower bound on the marginal likelihood as an objective function, and the idea of SVI is to apply a variant of stochastic gradient descent to this objective. Notably, this objective is based on the conceptual existence of a full data set involving D data points (i.e., documents in the topic model setting), for a fixed value of D. Although the stochastic gradient is computed for a single, small subset of data points (documents) at a time, the posterior being targeted is a posterior for D data points. This value of D must be specified in advance and is used by the algorithm at each step. Posteriors for D! data points, for D! != D, are not obtained as part of the analysis. We view this lack of a link between the number of documents that have been processed thus far and the posterior that is being targeted as undesirable in many settings involving streaming data. In this paper we aim at an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm that is scalable like SVI but 1 is also truly a streaming procedure, in that it yields an approximate posterior for each processed collection of D! data points?and not just a pre-specified ?final? number of data points D. To that end, we return to the classical perspective of Bayesian updating, where the recursive application of Bayes theorem provides a sequence of posteriors, not a sequence of approximations to a fixed posterior. To this classical recursive perspective we bring the VB framework; our updates need not be exact Bayesian updates but rather may be approximations such as VB. This approach is similar in spirit to assumed density filtering or expectation propagation [7?9], but each step of those methods involves a moment-matching step that can be computationally costly for models such as topic models. We are able to avoid the moment-matching step via the use of VB. We also note other related work in this general vein: MCMC approximations have been explored by [10], and VB or VB-like approximations have also been explored by [11, 12]. Although the empirical success of SVI is the main motivation for our work, we are also motivated by recent developments in computer architectures, which permit distributed and asynchronous computations in addition to streaming computations. As we will show, a streaming VB algorithm naturally lends itself to distributed and asynchronous implementations. 2 Streaming, distributed, asynchronous Bayesian updating Streaming Bayesian updating. Consider data x1 , x2 , . . . generated iid according to a distribution p(x | ?) given parameter(s) ?. Assume that a prior p(?) has also been specified. Then Bayes theorem gives us the posterior distribution of ? given a collection of S data points, C1 := (x1 , . . . , xS ): p(? | C1 ) = p(C1 )?1 p(C1 | ?) p(?), !S where p(C1 | ?) = p(x1 , . . . , xS | ?) = s=1 p(xs | ?). Suppose we have seen and processed b?1 collections, sometimes called minibatches, of data. Given the posterior p(? | C1 , . . . , Cb?1 ), we can calculate the posterior after the bth minibatch: p(? | C1 , . . . , Cb ) ? p(Cb | ?) p(? | C1 , . . . , Cb?1 ). (1) That is, we treat the posterior after b ? 1 minibatches as the new prior for the incoming data points. If we can save the posterior from b ? 1 minibatches and calculate the normalizing constant for the bth posterior, repeated application of Eq. (1) is streaming; it automatically gives us the new posterior without needing to revisit old data points. In complex models, it is often infeasible to calculate the posterior exactly, and an approximation must be used. Suppose that, given a prior p(?) and data minibatch C, we have an approximation algorithm A that calculates an approximate posterior q: q(?) = A(C, p(?)). Then, setting q0 (?) = p(?), one way to recursively calculate an approximation to the posterior is p(? | C1 , . . . , Cb ) ? qb (?) = A (Cb , qb?1 (?)) . (2) When A yields the posterior from Bayes theorem, this calculation is exact. This approach already differs from that of [3?5], which we will see (Sec. 3.2) directly approximates p(? | C1 , . . . , CB ) for fixed B without making intermediate approximations for b strictly between 1 and B. Distributed Bayesian updating. The sequential updates in Eq. (2) handle streaming data in theory, but in practice, the A calculation might take longer than the time interval between minibatch arrivals or simply take longer than desired. Parallelizing computations increases algorithm throughput. And posterior calculations need not be sequential. Indeed, Bayes theorem yields "B $ "B $ # # ?1 p(? | C1 , . . . , CB ) ? p(Cb | ?) p(?) ? p(? | Cb ) p(?) p(?). (3) b=1 b=1 That is, we can calculate the individual minibatch posteriors p(? | Cb ), perhaps in parallel, and then combine them to find the full posterior p(? | C1 , . . . , CB ). Given an approximating algorithm A as above, the corresponding approximate update would be "B $ # p(? | C1 , . . . , CB ) ? q(?) ? A(Cb , p(?)) p(?)?1 p(?), (4) b=1 2 for some approximating distribution q, provided the normalizing constant for the right-hand side of Eq. (4) can be computed. Variational inference methods are generally based on exponential family representations [6], and we will make that assumption here. In particular, we suppose p(?) ? exp{?0 ? T (?)}; that is, p(?) is an exponential family distribution for ? with sufficient statistic T (?) and natural parameter ?0 . We suppose further that A always returns a distribution in the same exponential family; in particular, we suppose that there exists some parameter ?b such that qb (?) ? exp{?b ? T (?)} for qb (?) = A(Cb , p(?)). When we make these two assumptions, the update in Eq. (4) becomes %" $ ' B & p(? | C1 , . . . , CB ) ? q(?) ? exp ?0 + (?b ? ?0 ) ? T (?) , (5) (6) b=1 where the normalizing constant is readily obtained from the exponential family form. In what follows we use the shorthand ? ? A(C, ?0 ) to denote that A takes as input a minibatch C and a prior with exponential family parameter ?0 and that it returns a distribution in the same exponential family with parameter ?. So, to approximate p(? | C1 , . . . , CB ), we first calculate ?b via the approximation primitive A for each minibatch Cb ; note that these calculations may be performed in parallel. Then we sum together the quantities ?b ? ?0 across b, along with the initial ?0 from the prior, to find the final exponential family parameter to the full posterior approximation q. We previously saw that the general Bayes sequential update can be made streaming by iterating with the old posterior as the new prior (Eq. (2)). Similarly, here we see that the full posterior approximation q is in the same exponential family as the prior, so one may iterate these parallel computations to arrive at a parallelized algorithm for streaming posterior computation. We emphasize that while these updates are reminiscent of prior-posterior conjugacy, it is actually the approximate posteriors and single, original prior that we assume belong to the same exponential family. It is not necessary to assume any conjugacy in the generative model itself nor that any true intermediate or final posterior take any particular limited form. Asynchronous Bayesian updating. Performing B computations in parallel can in theory speed up algorithm running time by a factor of B, but in practice it is often the case that a single computation thread takes longer than the rest. Waiting for this thread to finish diminishes potential gains from distributing the computations. This problem can be ameliorated by making computations asynchronous. In this case, processors known as workers each solve a subproblem. When a worker finishes, it reports its solution to a single master processor. If the master gives the worker a new subproblem without waiting for the other workers to finish, it can decrease downtime in the system. Our asynchronous algorithm is in the spirit of Hogwild! [1]. To present the algorithm we first describe an asynchronous computation that we will not use in practice, but which will serve as a conceptual stepping stone. Note in particular that the following scheme makes the computations in Eq. (6) asynchronous. Have each worker continuously iterate between three steps: (1) collect a new minibatch C, (2) compute the local approximate posterior ? ? A(C, ?0 ), and (3) return ?? := ? ? ?0 to the master. The master, in turn, starts by assigning the posterior to equal the prior: ? (post) ? ?0 . Each time the master receives a quantity ?? from any worker, it updates the posterior synchronously: ? (post) ? ? (post) + ??. If A returns the exponential family parameter of the true posterior (rather than an approximation), then the posterior at the master is exact by Eq. (4). A preferred asynchronous computation works as follows. The master initializes its posterior estimate to the prior: ? (post) ? ?0 . Each worker continuously iterates between four steps: (1) collect a new minibatch C, (2) copy the master posterior value locally ? (local) ? ? (post) , (3) compute the local approximate posterior ? ? A(C, ? (local) ), and (4) return ?? := ? ? ? (local) to the master. Each time the master receives a quantity ?? from any worker, it updates the posterior synchronously: ? (post) ? ? (post) + ??. The key difference between the first and second frameworks proposed above is that, in the second, the latest posterior is used as a prior. This latter framework is more in line with the streaming update of Eq. (2) but introduces a new layer of approximation. Since ? (post) might change at the master 3 while the worker is computing ??, it is no longer the case that the posterior at the master is exact when A returns the exponential family parameter of the true posterior. Nonetheless we find that the latter framework performs better in practice, so we focus on it exclusively in what follows. We refer to our overall framework as SDA-Bayes, which stands for (S)treaming, (D)istributed, (A)synchronous Bayes. The framework is intended to be general enough to allow a variety of local approximations A. Indeed, SDA-Bayes works out of the box once an implementation of A?and a prior on the global parameter(s) ??is provided. In the current paper our preferred local approximation will be VB. 3 Case study: latent Dirichlet allocation In what follows, we consider examples of the choices for the ? prior and primitive A in the context of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) [13]. LDA models the content of D documents in a corpus. Themes potentially shared by multiple documents are described by topics. The unsupervised learning problem is to learn the topics as well as discover which topics occur in which documents. More formally, each topic (of K total topics) is a distribution over the V words in the vocabulary: ?k = (?kv )Vv=1 . Each document is an admixture of topics. The words in document d are assumed to be exchangeable. Each word wdn belongs to a latent topic zdn chosen according to a documentspecific distribution of topics ?d = (?dk )K k=1 . The full generative model, with Dirichlet priors for ?k and ?d conditioned on respective parameters ?k and ?, appears in [13]. To see that this model fits our specification in Sec. 2, consider the set of global parameters ? = d ?. Each document wd = (wdn )N n=1 is distributed iid conditioned on the global topics. The full collection of data is a corpus C = w = (wd )D d=1 of documents. The posterior for LDA, p(?, ?, z | C, ?, ?), is equal to the following expression up to proportionality: "K $ "D $ "D N $ d # # ## ? Dirichlet(?k | ?k ) ? Dirichlet(?d | ?) ? ?dzdn ?zdn ,wdn . (7) k=1 d=1 n=1 d=1 The posterior for just the global parameters p(? | C, ?, ?) can be obtained from p(?, ?, z | C, ?, ?) by integrating out the local, document-specific parameters ?, z. As is common in complex models, the normalizing constant for Eq. (7) is intractable to compute, so the posterior must be approximated. 3.1 Posterior-approximation algorithms To apply SDA-Bayes to LDA, we use the prior specified by the generative model. It remains to choose a posterior-approximation algorithm A. We consider two possibilities here: variational Bayes (VB) and expectation propagation (EP). Both primitives take Dirichlet distributions as priors for ? and both return Dirichlet distributions for the approximate posterior of the topic parameters ?; thus the prior and approximate posterior are in the same exponential family. Hence both VB and EP can be utilized as a choice for A in the SDA-Bayes framework. Mean-field variational Bayes. We use the shorthand pD for Eq. (7), the posterior given D documents. We assume the approximating distribution, written qD for shorthand, takes the form "K $ "D $ "D N $ d # # ## qD (?, ?, z | ?, ?, ?) = qD (?k | ?k ) ? qD (?d | ?d ) ? qD (zdn | ?dwdn ) (8) k=1 d=1 d=1 n=1 for parameters (?kv ), (?dk ), (?dvk ) with k ? {1, . . . , K}, v ? {1, . . . , V }, d ? {1, . . . , D}. Moreover, we set qD (?k | ?k ) = DirichletV (?k | ?k ), qD (?d | ?d ) = DirichletK (?d | ?d ), and qD (zdn | ?dwdn ) = CategoricalK (zdn | ?dwdn ). The subscripts on Dirichlet and Categorical indicate the dimensions of the distributions (and of the parameters). The problem of VB is to find the best approximating qD , defined as the collection of variational parameters ?, ?, ? that minimize the KL divergence from the true posterior: KL (qD ' pD ). Even finding the minimizing parameters is a difficult optimization problem. Typically the solution is approximated by coordinate descent in each parameter [6, 13] as in Alg. 1. The derivation of VB for LDA can be found in [4, 13] and Sup. Mat. A.1. 4 Algorithm 1: VB for LDA Subroutine LocalVB(d, ?) Output: (?d , ?d ) Initialize ?d while (?d , ?d ) not converged do ?(k, v), set ?dvk ? exp (Eq [log ?dk ] + Eq [log ?kv ]) (normalized across k) (V ?k, ?dk ? ?k + v=1 ?dvk ndv Input: Data (nd )D d=1 ; hyperparameters ?, ? Output: ? Initialize ? while (?, ?, ?) not converged do for d = 1, . . . , D do (?d , ?d ) ? LocalVB(d, ?) (D ?(k, v), ?kv ? ?kv + d=1 ?dvk ndv Algorithm 2: SVI for LDA Algorithm 3: SSU for LDA Input: Hyperparameters ?, ? Output: A sequence ?(1) , ?(2) , . . . (0) Initialize ?(k, v), ?kv ? ?kv for b = 1, 2, . . . do Collect new data minibatch C foreach document indexed d in C do (?d , ?d ) ? LocalVB(d, ?) ( (b) (b?1) ?(k, v), ?kv ? ?kv + d in C ?dvk ndv ?, ?, D, (?t )Tt=1 Input: Hyperparameters Output: ? Initialize ? for t = 1, . . . , T do Collect new data minibatch C foreach document indexed d in C do (?d , ?d ) ? LocalVB(d, ?) ? kv ? ?kv + D ( ?(k, v), ? ?dvk ndv |C| d in C ? kv ?(k, v), ?kv ? (1 ? ?t )?kv + ?t ? Figure 1: Algorithms for calculating ?, the parameters for the topic posteriors in LDA. VB iterates multiple times through the data, SVI makes a single pass, and SSU is streaming. Here, ndv represents the number of words v in document d. Expectation propagation. An EP [7] algorithm for approximating the LDA posterior appears in Alg. 6 of Sup. Mat. B. Alg. 6 differs from [14], which does not provide an approximate posterior for the topic parameters, and is instead our own derivation. Our version of EP, like VB, learns factorized Dirichlet distributions over topics. 3.2 Other single-pass algorithms for approximate LDA posteriors The algorithms in Sec. 3.1 pass through the data multiple times and require storing the data set in memory?but are useful as primitives for SDA-Bayes in the context of the processing of minibatches of data. Next, we consider two algorithms that can pass through a data set just one time (single pass) and to which we compare in the evaluations (Sec. 4). Stochastic variational inference. VB uses coordinate descent to find a value of qD , Eq. (8), that locally minimizes the KL divergence, KL (qD ' pD ). Stochastic variational inference (SVI) [3, 4] is exactly the application of a particular version of stochastic gradient descent to the same optimization problem. While stochastic gradient descent can often be viewed as a streaming algorithm, the optimization problem itself here depends on D via pD , the posterior on D data points. We see that, as a result, D must be specified in advance, appears in each step of SVI (see Alg. 2), and is independent of the number of data points actually processed by the algorithm. Nonetheless, while one may choose to visit D! != D data points or revisit data points when using SVI to estimate pD [3, 4], SVI can be made single-pass by visiting each of D data points exactly once and then has constant memory requirements. We also note that two new parameters, ?0 > 0 and ? ? (0.5, 1], appear in SVI, beyond those in VB, to determine a learning rate ?t as a function of iteration t: ?t := (?0 + t)?? . Sufficient statistics. On each round of VB (Alg. 1), we update the local parameters for all doc(D uments and then compute ?kv ? ?kv + d=1 ?dvk ndv . An alternative single-pass (and indeed streaming) option would be to update the local parameters for each minibatch of documents as they arrive and then add the corresponding terms ?dvk ndv to the current estimate of ? for each document d in the minibatch. This essential idea has been proposed previously for models other than LDA by [11, 12] and forms the basis of what we call the sufficient statistics update algorithm (SSU): Alg. 3. This algorithm is equivalent to SDA-Bayes with A chosen to be a single iteration over the global variable ? of VB (i.e., updating ? exactly once instead of iterating until convergence). 5 Wikipedia Log pred prob Time (hours) Nature 32-SDA 1-SDA SVI SSU 32-SDA 1-SDA SVI SSU ?7.31 2.09 ?7.43 43.93 ?7.32 7.87 ?7.91 8.28 ?7.11 0.55 ?7.19 10.02 ?7.08 1.22 ?7.82 1.27 Table 1: A comparison of (1) log predictive probability of held-out data and (2) running time of four algorithms: SDA-Bayes with 32 threads, SDA-Bayes with 1 thread, SVI, and SSU. 4 Evaluation We follow [4] (and further [15, 16]) in evaluating our algorithms by computing (approximate) predictive probability. Under this metric, a higher score is better, as a better model will assign a higher probability to the held-out words. We calculate predictive probability by first setting aside held-out testing documents C (test) from the full corpus and then further setting aside a subset of held-out testing words Wd,test in each testing document d. The remaining (training) documents C (train) are used to estimate the global parameter posterior q(?), and the remaining (training) words Wd,train within the dth testing document are used to estimate the document-specific parameter posterior q(?d ).1 To calculate predictive probability, an approximation is necessary since we do not know the predictive distribution?just as we seek to learn the posterior distribution. Specifically, we calculate the normalized predictive distribution and report ?log predictive probability? as ( ( ( (train) (train) , Wd,train ) , Wd,train ) d?C (test) wtest ?Wd,test log p(wtest | C d?C (test) log p(Wd,test | C ( ( = , d?C (test) |Wd,test | d?C (test) |Wd,test | where we use the approximation ) ) p(wtest | C (train) , Wd,train ) = ? ? ?d ) ) ? ?d * K & ?dk ?kwtest k=1 * K & ?dk ?kwtest k=1 + + p(?d | Wd,train , ?) p(? | C (train) ) d?d d? q(?d ) q(?) d?d d? = K & Eq [?dk ] Eq [?kwtest ]. k=1 To facilitate comparison with SVI, we use the Wikipedia and Nature corpora of [3, 5] in our experiments. These two corpora represent a range of sizes (3,611,558 training documents for Wikipedia and 351,525 for Nature) as well as different types of topics. We expect words in Wikipedia to represent an extremely broad range of topics whereas we expect words in Nature to focus more on the sciences. We further use the vocabularies of [3, 5] and SVI code available online at [17]. We hold out 10,000 Wikipedia documents and 1,024 Nature documents (not included in the counts above) for testing. In the results presented in the main text, we follow [3, 4] in fitting an LDA model with K = 100 topics and hyperparameters chosen as: ?k, ?k = 1/K, ?(k, v), ?kv = 0.01. For both Wikipedia and Nature, we set the parameters in SVI according to the optimal values of the parameters described in Table 1 of [3] (number of documents D correctly set in advance, step size parameters ? = 0.5 and ?0 = 64). Figs. 3(a) and 3(d) demonstrate that both SVI and SDA are sensitive to minibatch size when ?kv = 0.01, with generally superior performance at larger batch sizes. Interestingly, both SVI and SDA performance improve and are steady across batch size when ?kv = 1 (Figs. 3(a) and 3(d)). Nonetheless, we use ?kv = 0.01 in what follows in the interest of consistency with [3, 4]. Moreover, in the remaining experiments, we use a large minibatch size of 215 = 32,768. This size is the largest before SVI performance degrades in the Nature data set (Fig. 3(d)). Performance and timing results are shown in Table 1. One would expect that with additional streaming capabilities, SDA-Bayes should show a performance loss relative to SVI. We see from Table 1 1 In all cases, we estimate q(?d ) for evaluative purposes using VB since direct EP estimation takes prohibitively long. 6 ?7.45 1 2 4 8 16 32 number of threads (a) Wikipedia ?7.15 ?7.2 1 sync async 40 30 20 10 0 2 4 8 16 32 number of threads (b) Nature 1 2 4 8 16 number of threads (c) Wikipedia 32 sync async 10 run time (hours) ?7.4 sync async ?7.1 run time (hours) ?7.35 log predictive probability log predictive probability sync async ?7.3 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 4 8 16 number of threads 32 (d) Nature Figure 2: SDA-Bayes log predictive probability (two left plots) and run time (two right plots) as a function of number of threads. that such loss is small in the single-thread case, while SSU performs much worse. SVI is faster than single-thread SDA-Bayes in this single-pass setting. Full SDA-Bayes improves run time with no performance cost. We handicap SDA-Bayes in the above comparisons by utilizing just a single thread. In Table 1, we also report performance of SDABayes with 32 threads and the same minibatch size. In the synchronous case, we consider minibatch size to equal the total number of data points processed per round; therefore, the minibatch size equals the number of data points sent to each thread per round times the total number of threads. In the asynchronous case, we analogously report minibatch size as this product. Fig. 2 shows the performance of SDA-Bayes when we run with {1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32} threads while keeping the minibatch size constant. The goal in such a distributed context is to improve run time while not hurting performance. Indeed, we see dramatic run time improvement as the number of threads grows and in fact some slight performance improvement as well. We tried both a parallel version and a full distributed, asynchronous version of the algorithm; Fig. 2 indicates that the speedup and performance improvements we see here come from parallelizing?which is theoretically justified by Eq. (3) when A is Bayes rule. Our experiments indicate that our Hogwild!-style asynchrony does not hurt performance. In our experiments, the processing time at each thread seems to be approximately equal across threads and dominate any communication time at the master, so synchronous and asynchronous performance and running time are essentially identical. In general, a practitioner might prefer asynchrony since it is more robust to node failures. SVI is sensitive to the choice of total data size D. The evaluations above are for a single posterior over D data points. Of greater concern to us in this work is the evaluation of algorithms in the streaming setting. We have seen that SVI is designed to find the posterior for a particular, prechosen number of data points D. In practice, when we run SVI on the full data set but change the input value of D in the algorithm, we can see degradations in performance. In particular, we try values of D equal to {0.01, 0.1, 1, 10, 100} times the true D in Fig. 3(b) for the Wikipedia data set and in Fig. 3(e) for the Nature data set. A practitioner in the streaming setting will typically not know D in advance, or multiple values of D may be of interest. Figs. 3(b) and 3(e) illustrate that an estimate may not be sufficient. Even in the case where D is known in advance, it is reasonable to imagine a new influx of further data. One might need to run SVI again from the start (and, in so doing, revisit the first data set) to obtain the desired performance. SVI is sensitive to learning step size. [3, 5] use cross-validation to tune step-size parameters (?0 , ?) in the stochastic gradient descent component of the SVI algorithm. This cross-validation requires multiple runs over the data and thus is not suited to the streaming setting. Figs. 3(c) and 3(f) demonstrate that the parameter choice does indeed affect algorithm performance. In these figures, we keep D at the true training data size. [3] have observed that the optimal (?0 , ?) may interact with minibatch size, and we further observe that the optimal values may vary with D as well. We also note that recent work has suggested a way to update (?0 , ?) adaptively during an SVI run [18]. EP is not suited to LDA. Earlier attempts to apply EP to the LDA model in the non-streaming setting have had mixed success, with [19] in particular finding that EP performance can be poor for LDA and, moreover, that EP requires ?unrealistic intermediate storage requirements.? We found 7 SVI, ? = 1.0 SVI, ? = 0.01 SDA, ? = 1.0 SDA, ? = 0.01 ?8.2 ?8.5 5 10 15 log batch size (base 2) ?7.35 ?7.4 ?7.45 ?7.5 0 D = 361155800 D = 36115580 D = 3611558 D = 361155 D = 36115 1e6 2e6 3e6 number of examples seen ?7.3 ?7.6 ?7.9 SDA, ? = 1.0 SDA, ? = 0.01 SVI, ? = 0.01 SVI, ? = 1.0 ?8.2 ?8.5 5 10 15 log batch size (base 2) log predictive probability log predictive probability (a) Sensitivity to minibatch size on (b) SVI sensitivity to D Wikipedia Wikipedia ?7 ?7 ?7.2 ?7.4 ?7.6 D = 3515250 D = 35152500 D = 351525 D = 35152 D = 3515 ?7.8 ?8 0 log predictive probability ?7.9 ?7.3 1e5 2e5 3e5 number of examples seen ?7.3 ?7.35 ?7.4 ?7.45 ?7.5 0 ?0 ?0 ?0 ?0 ?0 ?0 = 16, ? = 1.0 = 256, ? = 0.5 = 64, ? = 1.0 = 256, ? = 1.0 = 64, ? = 0.5 = 16, ? = 0.5 1e6 2e6 3e6 number of examples seen on (c) SVI sensitivity to stepsize parameters on Wikipedia log predictive probability ?7.6 log predictive probability log predictive probability ?7 ?7.3 ?7 ?7.2 ?7.4 ?7.6 ?7.8 ?8 0 ?0 ?0 ?0 ?0 ?0 ?0 = 16, ? = 0.5 = 64, ? = 0.5 = 256, ? = 1.0 = 16, ? = 1.0 = 64, ? = 1.0 = 256, ? = 0.5 1e5 2e5 3e5 number of examples seen (d) Sensitivity to minibatch size on (e) SVI sensitivity to D on Nature (f) SVI sensitivity to stepsize paNature rameters on Nature Figure 3: Sensitivity of SVI and SDA-Bayes to some respective parameters. Legends have the same top-to-bottom order as the rightmost curve points. this to also be true in the streaming setting. We were not able to obtain competitive results with EP; based on an 8-thread implementation of SDA-Bayes with an EP primitive2 , after over 91 hours on Wikipedia (and 6.7?104 data points), log predictive probability had stabilized at around ?7.95 and, after over 97 hours on Nature (and 9.7 ? 104 data points), log predictive probability had stabilized at around ?8.02. Although SDA-Bayes with the EP primitive is not effective for LDA, it remains to be seen whether this combination may be useful in other domains where EP is known to be effective. 5 Discussion We have introduced SDA-Bayes, a framework for streaming, distributed, asynchronous computation of an approximate Bayesian posterior. Our framework makes streaming updates to the estimated posterior according to a user-specified approximation primitive. We have demonstrated the usefulness of our framework, with variational Bayes as the primitive, by fitting the latent Dirichlet allocation topic model to the Wikipedia and Nature corpora. We have demonstrated the advantages of our algorithm over stochastic variational inference and the sufficient statistics update algorithm, particularly with respect to the key issue of obtaining approximations to posterior probabilities based on the number of documents seen thus far, not posterior probabilities for a fixed number of documents. Acknowledgments We thank M. Hoffman, C. Wang, and J. Paisley for discussions, code, and data and our reviewers for helpful comments. TB is supported by the Berkeley Fellowship, NB by a Hertz Foundation Fellowship, and ACW by the Chancellor?s Fellowship at UC Berkeley. This research is supported in part by NSF award CCF-1139158, DARPA Award FA8750-12-2-0331, AMPLab sponsor donations, and the ONR under grant number N00014-11-1-0688. 2 We chose 8 threads since any fewer was too slow to get results and anything larger created too high of a memory demand on our system. 8 References [1] F. Niu, B. Recht, C. R?e, and S. J. Wright. Hogwild!: A lock-free approach to parallelizing stochastic gradient descent. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2011. [2] A. Kleiner, A. Talwalkar, P. Sarkar, and M. Jordan. The big data bootstrap. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [3] M. Hoffman, D. M. Blei, and F. Bach. Online learning for latent Dirichlet allocation. In Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 23, pages 856?864, 2010. [4] M. Hoffman, D. M. Blei, J. Paisley, and C. Wang. Stochastic variational inference. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14:1303?1347. [5] C. Wang, J. Paisley, and D. M. Blei. 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Broderick, and M. P. Wand. Real-time semiparametric regression. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, to appear. Preprint arXiv:1209.3550. [13] D. M. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [14] T. Minka and J. Lafferty. Expectation-propagation for the generative aspect model. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 352?359. Morgan Kaufmann, 2002. [15] Y. Teh, D. Newman, and M. Welling. A collapsed variational Bayesian inference algorithm for latent Dirichlet allocation. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2006. [16] A. Asuncion, M. Welling, P. Smyth, and Y. Teh. On smoothing and inference for topic models. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2009. [17] M. Hoffman. Online inference for LDA (Python code) at http://www.cs.princeton.edu/?blei/downloads/onlineldavb.tar, 2010. [18] R. Ranganath, C. Wang, D. M. Blei, and E. P. Xing. An adaptive learning rate for stochastic variational inference. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [19] W. L. Buntine and A. Jakulin. Applying discrete PCA in data analysis. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. [20] M. Seeger. Expectation propagation for exponential families. Technical report, University of California at Berkeley, 2005. 9
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Scalable Inference for Logistic-Normal Topic Models Jianfei Chen, Jun Zhu, Zi Wang, Xun Zheng and Bo Zhang State Key Lab of Intelligent Tech. & Systems; Tsinghua National TNList Lab; Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China {chenjf10,wangzi10}@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn; {dcszj,dcszb}@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; [email protected] Abstract Logistic-normal topic models can effectively discover correlation structures among latent topics. However, their inference remains a challenge because of the non-conjugacy between the logistic-normal prior and multinomial topic mixing proportions. Existing algorithms either make restricting mean-field assumptions or are not scalable to large-scale applications. This paper presents a partially collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm that approaches the provably correct distribution by exploring the ideas of data augmentation. To improve time efficiency, we further present a parallel implementation that can deal with large-scale applications and learn the correlation structures of thousands of topics from millions of documents. Extensive empirical results demonstrate the promise. 1 Introduction In Bayesian models, though conjugate priors normally result in easier inference problems, nonconjugate priors could be more expressive in capturing desired model properties. One popular example is admixture topic models which have obtained much success in discovering latent semantic structures from data. For the most popular latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) [5], a Dirichlet distribution is used as the conjugate prior for multinomial mixing proportions. But a Dirichlet prior is unable to model topic correlation, which is important for understanding/visualizing the semantic structures of complex data, especially in large-scale applications. One elegant extension of LDA is the logistic-normal topic models (aka correlated topic models, CTMs) [3], which use a logisticnormal prior to capture the correlation structures among topics effectively. Along this line, many subsequent extensions have been developed, including dynamic topic models [4] that deal with time series via a dynamic linear system on the Gaussian variables and infinite CTMs [11] that can resolve the number of topics from data. The modeling flexibility comes with computational cost. Although significant progress has been made on developing scalable inference algorithms for LDA using either distributed [10, 16, 1] or online [7] learning methods, the inference of logistic-normal topic models still remains a challenge, due to the non-conjugate priors. Existing algorithms on learning logistic-normal topic models mainly rely on approximate techniques, e.g., variational inference with unwarranted mean-field assumptions [3]. Although variational methods have a deterministic objective to optimize and are usually efficient, they could only achieve an approximate solution. If the mean-field assumptions are not made appropriately, the approximation could be unsatisfactory. Furthermore, existing algorithms can only deal with small corpora and learn a limited number of topics. It is important to develop scalable algorithms in order to apply the models to large collections of documents, which are becoming increasingly common in both scientific and engineering fields. To address the limitations listed above, we develop a scalable Gibbs sampling algorithm for logisticnormal topic models, without making any restricting assumptions on the posterior distribution. Technically, to deal with the non-conjugate logistic-normal prior, we introduce auxiliary Polya-Gamma 1 variables [13], following the statistical ideas of data augmentation [17, 18, 8]; and the augmented posterior distribution leads to conditional distributions from which we can draw samples easily without accept/reject steps. Moreover, the auxiliary variables are locally associated with each individual document, and this locality naturally allows us to develop a distributed sampler by splitting the documents into multiple subsets and allocating them to multiple machines. The global statistics can be updated asynchronously without sacrificing the predictive ability on unseen testing documents. We successfully apply the scalable inference algorithm to learning a correlation graph of thousands of topics on large corpora with millions of documents. These results are the largest automatically learned topic correlation structures to our knowledge. 2 Logistic-Normal Topic Models Nd Let W = {wd }D d=1 be a set of documents, where wd = {wdn }n=1 denote the words appearing in document d of length Nd . A hierarchical Bayesian topic model posits each document as an admixture of K topics, where each topic ?k is a multinomial distribution over a V -word vocabulary. For a logistic-normal topic model (e.g., CTM), the generating process of document d is: k e?d ?d ? N (?, ?), ?dk = P K j=1 , ?n ? {1, ? ? ? , Nd } : zdn ? Mult(?d ), wdn ? Mult(?zdn ), j e?d where Mult(?) denotes the multinomial distribution; zdn is a K-binary vector with only one nonzero element; and ?zdn denotes the topic selected by the non-zero entry of zdn . For Bayesian CTM, the topics are samples drawn from a prior, e.g., ?k ? Dir(?), where Dir(?) is a Dirichlet distribution. Note that for identifiability, normally we assume ?dK = 0. Given a set of documents W, CTM infers the posterior distribution p(?, Z, ?|W) ? p0 (?, Z, ?)p(W|Z, ?) by the Bayes? rule. This problem is generally hard because of the nonconjugacy between the normal prior and the logistic transformation function (can be seen as a likelihood model for ?). Existing approaches resort to variational approximate methods [3] with strict factorization assumptions. To avoid mean-field assumptions and improve the inference accuracy, below we present a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler, which is simple to implement and can be naturally parallelized for large-scale applications. 3 Gibbs Sampling with Data Augmentation We now present a block-wise Gibbs sampling algorithm for logistic-normal topic models. To improve mixing rates, we first integrate out the Dirichlet variables ?, by exploring the conjugacy between a Dirichlet prior and multinomial likelihood. Specifically, we can integrate out ? and perform Gibbs sampling for the marginalized distribution: p(?, Z|W) ? p(W|Z) Nd D Y Y ?dzdn d=1 n=1  N (?d |?, ?) ? Nd K D Y ?(Ck + ?) Y Y k=1 ?(?) d=1 n=1 zdn e?d PK j=1 e j ?d  N (?d |?, ?), where Ckt is the number of times topic k being assigned to the term t over the whole corpus; Ck = {Ckt }Vt=1 ; and ?(x) = 3.1 Qdim(x) ?(xi ) i=1 Pdim(x) xi ) i=1 ?( is a function defined with the Gamma function ?(?). Sampling Topic Assignments When the variables ? = {?d }D d=1 are given, we draw samples from p(Z|?, W). In our Gibbs sampler, this is done by iteratively drawing a sample for each word in each document. The local conditional distribution is: k w dn Ck,?n + ?wdn k e?d ,(1) PV j C + ? j j=1 k,?n j=1 k k p(zdn = 1|Z?n , wdn , W?dn , ?) ? p(wdn |zdn = 1, Z?n , W?dn )e?d ? PV ? where C?,?n indicates that term n is excluded from the corresponding document or topic. 3.2 Sampling Logistic-Normal Parameters When the topic assignments Z are given, we draw samples from the posterior distribution  ?d Q D  QN d e zn p(?|Z, W) ? d=1 N (?d |?, ?), which is a Bayesian logistic regression model n=1 PK ?d j=1 e j 2 with Z as the multinomial observations. Though it is hard to draw samples directly due to nonconjugacy, we can leverage recent advances in data augmentation to solve this inference task efficiently, with analytical local conditionals for Gibbs sampling, as detailed below. Specifically, we have the likelihood of ?observing? the topic assignments zd for document d 1 as zdn Q Nd e? d d p(zd |?d ) = n=1 j . Following Homes & Held [8], the likelihood for ?k conditioned on PK ? j=1 e d ?d?k is: ?(?dk |?d?k ) = Nd  Y n=1 k e?d 1+e ?k d k  zdn 1 1+e ?dj ?k d k 1?zdn k = k (e?d )Cd ?k d Nd (1 + e ) , P Nd k is the number of words assigned where ?kd = ?dk ? ?dk ; ?dk = log( j6=k e ); and Cdk = n=1 zdn to topic k in document d. Therefore, we have the conditional distribution P p(?dk |?d?k , Z, W) ? ?(?dk |?d?k )N (?dk |?kd , ?k2 ), (2) ?1 ?k 2 ?1 where ?kd = ?k ? ??1 is the precision matrix of a kk ?k?k (?d ? ??k ) and ?k = ?kk . ? = ? Gaussian distribution. k This is a posterior distribution of a Bayesian logistic model with a Gaussian prior, where zdn are binary response variables. Due to the non-conjugacy between the normal prior and logistic likelihood, we do not have analytical form of this posterior distribution. Although standard Monte Carlo methods (e.g., rejection sampling) can be applied, they normally require a good proposal distribution and may have the trouble to deal with accept/reject rates. Data augmentation techniques have been developed, e.g., [8] presented a two layer data augmentation representation with logistic distributions and [9] applied another data augmentation with uniform variables and truncated Gaussian distributions, which may involve sophisticated accept/reject strategies [14]. Below, we develop a simple exact sampling method without a proposal distribution. Our method is based on a new data augmentation representation, following the recent developments in Bayesian logistic regression [13], which is a direct data augmentation scheme with only one layer of auxiliary variables and does not need to tune in order to get optimal performance. Specifically, for the above posterior inference problem, we can show the following lemma. Lemma 1 (Scale Mixture Representation). The likelihood ?(?dk |?d?k ) can be expressed as k k (e?d )Cd ?k d Nd (1 + e ) = 1 k k 2Nd e?d ?d Z ? e? k 2 ?k d (?d ) 2 p(?kd |Nd , 0)d?kd , 0 where ?kd = Cdk ? Nd /2 and p(?kd |Nd , 0) is the Polya-Gamma distribution PG(Nd , 0). The lemma suggest that p(?dk |?d?k , Z, W) is a marginal distribution of the complete distribution p(?dk , ?kd |?d?k , Z, W) ? 1 2Nd  ?k (?k )2  exp ?kd ?kd ? d d p(?kd |Nd , 0)N (?dk |?kd , ?k2 ). 2 Therefore, we can draw samples from the complete distribution. By discarding the augmented variable ?kd , we get the samples of the posterior distribution p(?dk |?d?k , Z, W). ?k (? k )2  For ?dk : we have p(?dk |?d?k , Z, W, ?kd ) ? exp ?kd ?dk ? d 2 d N (?dk |?, ? 2 ) = N (?dk , (?dk )2 ), where the posterior mean is ?dk = (?dk )2 (?k?2 ?kd + ?kd + ?kd ?dk ) and the variance is (?dk )2 = (?k?2 + ?kd )?1 . Therefore, we can easily draw a sample from a univariate Gaussian distribution. For ?kd : the conditional distribution of the augmented variable is p(?kd |Z, W, ?) ? exp ? k 2  ?k d (?d ) p(?kd |Nd , 0) = PG ?kd ; Nd , ?kd , which is again a Polya-Gamma distribution by using the 2 construction definition of the general PG(a, b) class through an exponential tilting of the PG(a, 0) density [13]. To draw samples from the Polya-Gamma distribution, note that a naive implementation of the sampling using the infinite sum-of-Gamma representation is not efficient and it also involves a potentially inaccurate step of truncating the infinite sum. Here we adopt the exact method proposed in [13], which draws the samples through drawing Nd samples from PG(1, ?dk ). Since Nd is normally large, we will develop a fast and effective approximation in the next section. 1 Due to the independence, we can treat documents separately. 3 4 x 10 10000 m=1 m=2 m=4 m=8 m=n (exact) Frequency 2 1.5 1 6000 4000 2000 0.5 0 120 m=1 m=2 m=4 m=8 m=n (exact) 8000 Frequency 2.5 130 140 150 160 z ? PG(z ; m, ?) 170 180 0 ?1 0 (a) 3.3 1 2 3 ?kd ? P(?kd | ?d? k, Z, W ) (b) Fully-Bayesian Models Figure 3: (a) frequency of f (z) with z ? PG(m, ?); and (b) frequency of samples from ?dk ? p(?dk |?d?k , Z, W). Though z is not from the exact distribution, the distribution of ?dk is very accurate. The parameters ?kd = ?4.19, Cdk = 19, Nd = 1155, ?kd = 0.40, ?d2 = 0.31, and ? = 5.35 are from a real distribution when training on the NIPS data set. We can treat ? and ? as random variables and perform fully-Bayesian inference, by using the conjugate Normal-Inverse-Wishart prior, p0 (?, ?) = N IW(?0 , ?, ?, W ), that is ?|?, W ? IW(?; ?, W ?1 ), ?|?, ?0 , ? ? N (?; ?0 , ?/?), where IW(?; ?, W ?1 ) = |W |?/2 ?M 2 2 ?M ( ? 2 )|?| ?+M +1 2 exp(? 12 Tr(W ??1 )) is the inverse Wishart distribution and (?0 , ?, ?, W ) are hyper-parameters. Then, the conditional distribution is p(?, ?|?, Z, W) ? p0 (?, ?) Y p(?d |?, ?) = N IW(??0 , ?? , ?? , W ? ), (3) d which is still a Normal-Inverse-Wishart distribution due to the conjugate property and the parameters ?D ? D ? ?? = ? + D, ?? = ? + D and W ? = W + Q + ?+D ?, ?0 + ?+D (?? ? ?0 )(?? ? ?0 )? , are ??0 = ?+D P P 1 ? d ? ?) ? ?. where ?? = D d ?d is the empirical mean of the data and Q = d (?d ? ?)(? 4 Parallel Implementation and Fast Approximate Sampling The above Gibbs sampler can be naturally parallelized to extract large correlation graphs from millions of documents, due to the following observations: First, both ?d and ?d are conditionally independent given ? and ?, which makes it natural to distribute documents over machines and infer local ?d and ?d . No communication is needed for this sampling step. Second, the global variables ? and ? can be inferred and broadcast to every machine after each iteration. As mentioned in Section 3.3, this involves: 1) computing N IW posterior parameters, and 2) sampling from Eq. 3. Notice that ?d contribute to the posterior parameters ??0 , W ? through the simple summation operator, so that we can perform local summation on each machine, followed by a global aggregation. Similarly, N IW sample can be drawn distributively, by computing sample covariance of x1 , ? ? ? , x?? , drawn from N (x|0, W ? ) distributively after broadcasting W ? . Finally, the topic assignments zd are conditionally independent given the topic counts Ck . We synchronize Ck globally by leveraging the recent advances on scalable inference of LDA [1, 16], which implemented a general framework to synchronize such counts. To further speed up the inference algorithm, we designed a fast approximate sampling method to draw PG(n, ?) samples, reducing the time complexity from O(n) in [13] to O(1). Specifically, Polson et al. [13] show how to efficiently generate PG(1, ?) random variates. Due Pnto additive property of Polya-Gamma distribution, y ? PG(n, ?) if xi ? PG(1, ?) and y = i=1 xi . However, this sampler can be slow when n is large. For our Gibbs sampler, n is the document length, often around hundreds. Fortunately, an effective approximation can be developed to achieve constant time sampling of PG. Since n is relatively large, the sum variable y should be almost normally distributed, according to the central limit theorem. Fig. 3(a) confirms this intuition. Consider another PG variable z ? PG(m, ?). If both m and n are large, y and z should be both samples from normal distribution. Hence, y. Specifically, p we can do a simple linear transformation of z to approximate n we have f (z) = V ar(y)/V ar(z)(z ? E[z]) + E[y], where E[y] = 2? tanh(?/2) from [12], and V ar(z) V ar(y) = m n since both y and z are sum of PG(1, ?) variates. It can be shown that f (z) and y have the same mean and variance. In practice, we found that even when m = 1, the algorithm still can draw good samples from p(?dk |?d?k , Z, W) (See Fig. 3(b)). Hence, we are able to speed up the Polya-Gamma sampling process significantly by applying this approximation. More empirical analysis can be found in the appendix. 4 Furthermore, we can perform sparsity-aware fast sampling [19] in the Gibbs sampler. Specifically, wdn Ck,?n PV j j=1 j=1 Ck,?n + k PV ?j e? d , B k = ?wdn k e?d , then Eq. (1) can be written as P P k p(zdn = 1|Z?n , wdn , W?dn , ?) ? Ak + Bk . Let ZA = k Ak and ZB = k Bk . We can show that the sampling of zdn can be done by sampling from Mult( ZAA ) or Mult( ZBB ), due to the fact: let Ak = PV k p(zdn = 1|Z?n , wdn , W?dn , ?) = j=1 j Ck,?n + PV j=1 ?j Bk Ak Bk Ak + = (1 ? p) +p , ZA + ZB ZA + ZB ZA ZB (4) B where p = ZAZ+Z . Note that Eq. (4) is a marginalization with respect to an auxiliary binary B variable. Thus a sample of zdn can be drawn by flipping a coin with probability p being head. If it is tail, we draw zdn from Mult( ZAA ); otherwise from Mult( ZBB ). The advantage is that we only need to consider all non-zero entries of A to sample from Mult( ZAA ). In fact, A has few non-zero entries due to the sparsity of the topic counts Ck . Thus, the time complexity would be reduced from O(K) to O(s(K)), where s(K) is the average number of non-zero entries in Ck . In practice, Ck is very sparse, hence s(K) ? K when K is large. To sample from Mult( ZBB ), we iterate over all K potential assignments. But since p is typically small, O(K) time complexity is acceptable. With the above techniques, the time complexity per document of the Gibbs sampler is O(Nd s(K)) for sampling zd , O(K 2 ) for computing (?kd , ?k2 ), and O(SK) for sampling ?d with Eq. (2), where S is the number of sub-burn-in steps over sampling ?dk . Thus the overall time complexity is O(Nd s(K) + K 2 + SK), which is higher than the O(Nd s(K)) complexity of LDA [1] when K is large, indicating a cost for the enriched representation of CTM comparing to LDA. 5 Experiments We now present qualitative and quantitative evaluation to demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of the Gibbs sampler for CTM (denoted by gCTM). Experiments are conducted on a 40-node cluster, where each node is equipped with two 6-core CPUs (2.93GHz). For all the experiments, if not explicitly mentioned, we set the hyper-parameters as ? = 0.01, T = 350, S = 8, m = 1, ? = ? = 0.01D, ?0 = 0, and W = ?I, where T is the number of burn-in steps. We will use M to denote the number of machines and P to denote the number of CPU cores. For baselines, we compare with the variational CTM (vCTM) [3] and the state-of-the-art LDA implementation, Yahoo! LDA (Y!LDA) [1]. In order to achieve fair comparison, for both vCTM and gCTM we select T such that the models converge sufficiently, as we shall discuss later in Section 5.3. Data Sets: Experiments are conducted on several benchmark data sets, including NIPS paper abstracts, 20Newsgroups, and NYTimes (New York Times) corpora from [2] and the Wikipedia corpus from [20]. All the data sets are randomly split into training and testing sets. Following the settings in [3], we partition each document in the testing set into an observed part and a held-out part. 5.1 Qualitative Evaluation We first examine the correlation structure of 1,000 topics learned by CTM using our scalable sampler on the NYTimes corpus with 285,000 documents. Since the entire correlation graph is too large, we build a 3-layer hierarchy by clustering the learned topics, with their learned correlation strength as the similarity measure. Fig. 4 shows a part of the hierarchy2 , where the subgraph A represents the top layer with 10 clusters. The subgraphs B and C are two second layer clusters; and D and E are two correlation subgraphs consisting of leaf nodes (i.e., learned topics). To represent their semantic meanings, we present 4 most frequent words for each topic; and for each topic cluster, we also show most frequent words by building a hyper-topic that aggregates all the included topics. On the top layer, the font size of each word in a word cloud is proportional to its frequency in the hyper-topic. Clearly, we can see that many topics have strong correlations and the structure is useful to help humans understand/browse the large collection of topics. With 40 machines, our parallel Gibbs sampler finishes the training in 2 hours, which means that we are able to process real world corpus in considerable speed. More details on scalability will be provided below. 2 The entire correlation graph can be found on http://ml-thu.net/?scalable-ctm 5 denotes the number of topics a cluster contains. 113 113 B 47 82 31 130 4 5 A 6 12 6 314 248 22 27 D 41 C 48 42 17 13 4 E 12 17 6 7 4 12 7 5 4 3 3 3 Figure 4: A hierarchical visualization of the correlation graph with 1,000 topics learned from 285,000 articles of the NYTimes. A denotes the top-layer subgraph with 10 big clusters; B and C denote two second-layer clusters; and D and E are two subgraphs with leaf nodes (i.e., topics). We present most frequent words of each topic cluster. Edges denote a correlation (above some threshold) and the distance between two nodes represents the strength of their correlation. The node size of a cluster is determined by the number of topics included in that cluster. 6 1800 4500 4000 perplexity 2000 time (s) perplexity 10 vCTM gCTM (M=1, P=1) gCTM (M=1, P=12) 2 10 vCTM gCTM (M=1, P=1) gCTM (M=1, P=12) 1600 1400 0 20 40 60 K 80 100 (a) 10 20 40 60 K 80 6 10 gCTM (M=1, P=12) gCTM (M=40, P=480) Y!LDA (M=40, P=480) 4 time (s) 4 2200 3500 10 2 10 3000 2500 100 (b) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 K (c) 10 gCTM (M=1, P=12) gCTM (M=40, P=480) Y!LDA (M=40, P=480) 200 400 600 800 1000 K (d) Figure 5: (a)(b): Perplexity and training time of vCTM, single-core gCTM, and multi-core gCTM on the NIPS data set; (c)(d): Perplexity and training time of single-machine gCTM, multi-machine gCTM, and multi-machine Y!LDA on the NYTimes data set. 5.2 Performance We begin with an empirical assessment on the small NIPS data set, whose training set contains 1.2K documents. Fig. 5(a)&(b) show the performance of three single-machine methods: vCTM (M = 1, P = 1), sequential gCTM (M = 1, P = 1), and parallel gCTM (M = 1, P = 12). Fig. 5(a) shows that both versions of gCTM produce similar or better perplexity, compared to vCTM. Moreover, Fig. 5(b) shows that when K is large, the advantage of gCTM becomes salient, e.g., sequential gCTM is about 7.5 times faster than vCTM; and multi-core gCTM achieves almost two orders of magnitude of speed-up compared to vCTM. data set D K vCTM gCTM In Table 1, we compare the efficiency NIPS 1.2K 100 1.9 hr 8.9 min of vCTM and gCTM on different sized 20NG 11K 200 16 hr 9 min data sets. It can be observed that vCTM N/A* 0.5 hr NYTimes 285K 400 immediately becomes impractical when 17 hr Wiki 6M 1000 N/A* the data size reaches 285K, while by uti*not finished within 1 week. lizing additional computing resources, gCTM is able to process larger data sets Table 1: Training time of vCTM and gCTM (M = 40) with considerable speed, making it ap- on various datasets. plicable to real world problems. Note that gCTM has almost the same training time on NIPS and 20Newsgroups data sets, due to their small sizes. In such cases, the algorithm is dominated by synchronization rather than computation. Fig. 5(c)&(d) show the results on the NYTimes corpus, which contains over 285K training documents and cannot be handled well by non-parallel methods. Therefore we concentrate on three parallel methods ? single-machine gCTM (M = 1, P = 12), multi-machine gCTM (M = 40, P = 480), and multi-machine Y!LDA (M = 40, P = 480). We can see that: 1) both versions of gCTM obtain comparable perplexity to Y!LDA; and 2) gCTM (M = 40) is over an order of magnitude faster than the single-machine method, achieving considerable speed-up with additional computing resources. These observations suggest that gCTM is able to handle large data sets without sacrificing the quality of inference. Also note that Y!LDA is faster than gCTM because of the model difference ? LDA does not learn correlation structure among topics. As analyzed in Section 4, the time complexity of gCTM is O(K 2 + SK + Nd s(K)) per document, while for LDA it is O(Nd s(K)). 5.3 Sensitivity Burn-In and Sub-Burn-In: Fig. 6(a)&(b) show the effect of burn-in steps and sub-burn-in steps on the NIPS data set with K = 100. We also include vCTM for comparison. For vCTM, T denotes the number of iteration of its EM loop in variational context. Our main observations are twofold: 1) despite various S, all versions of gCTMs reach a similar level of perplexity that is better than vCTM; and 2) a moderate number of sub-iterations, e.g. S = 8, leads to the fastest convergence. This experiment also provides insights on determining the number of outer iterations T that assures convergence for both models. We adopt Cauchy?s criterion [15] for convergence: given an ? > 0, an algorithm converges at iteration T if ?i, j ? T, |Perp i ? Perp j | < ?, where Perp i and Perp j are perplexity at iteration i and j respectively. In practice, we set ? = 20 and run experiments with very large number of iterations. As a result, we obtained T = 350 for gCTM and T = 8 for vCTM, as pointed out with corresponing verticle line segments in Fig. 6(a)&(b). 7 2500 2000 2000 gCTM (S=1) gCTM (S=2) gCTM (S=4) gCTM (S=8) gCTM (S=16) gCTM (S=32) vCTM 2000 K=50 K=100 1800 perplexity gCTM (S=1) gCTM (S=2) gCTM (S=4) gCTM (S=8) gCTM (S=16) gCTM (S=32) vCTM perplexity perplexity 2500 1600 1400 1200 1500 0 10 1 2 10 10 3 10 1500 1 10 T (a) 2 10 3 10 time (s) 4 5 10 10 (b) 1000 1 4 16 64 256 1024 a (c) Figure 6: Sensitivity analysis with respect to key hyper-parameters: (a) perplexity at each iteration with different S; (b) convergence speed with different S; (c) perplexity tested with different prior. Prior: Fig. 6(c) shows perplexity under different prior settings. To avoid expensive search in a huge space, we set (?0 , ?, W, ?) = (0, a, aI, a) to test the effect of N IW prior, where a larger a implies more pseudo-observations of ? = 0, ? = I. We can see that for both K = 50 and K = 100, the perplexity is invariant under a wide range of prior settings. This suggests that gCTM is insensitive 4 to prior values. x 10 5.4 15 Scalability Fixed M=8 Linearly scaling M Ideal time (s) Fig. 7 shows the scalability of gCTM on the large 10 Wikipedia data set with K = 500. A practical problem in real world machine learning is that when computing resources are limitted, as the data size grows, the run5 ning time soon upsurges to an untolerable level. Ideally, this problem can be solved by adding the same ratio 1.2M 2.4M 3.6M 4.8M 6M of computing nodes. Our experiment demonstrates that #docs gCTM performs well in this scenario ? as we pour in the same proportion of data and machines, the training Figure 7: Scalability analysis. We set time is almost kept constant. In fact, the largest differ- M = 8, 16, 24, 32, 40 so that each maence from ideal curve is about 1,000 seconds, which is chine processes 150K documents. almost unobservable in the figure. This suggests that parallel gCTM enjoys nice scalability. 6 Conclusions and Discussions We present a scalable Gibbs sampling algorithm for logistic-normal topic models. Our method builds on a novel data augmentation formulation and addresses the non-conjugacy without making strict mean-field assumptions. The algorithm is naturally parallelizable and can be further boosted by approximate sampling techniques. Empirical results demonstrate significant improvement in time efficiency over existing variational methods, with slightly better perplexity. Our method enjoys good scalability, suggesting the ability to extract large structures from massive data. In the future, we plan to study the performance of Gibbs CTM on industry level clusters with thousands of machines. We are also interested in developing scalable sampling algorithms of other logistic-normal topic models, e.g., infinite CTM and dynamic topic models. Finally, the fast sampler of Poly-Gamma distributions can be used in relational and supervised topic models [6, 21]. Acknowledgments This work is supported by the National Basic Research Program (973 Program) of China (Nos. 2013CB329403, 2012CB316301), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61322308, 61305066), Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program (No. 20121088071), and Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology, China. 8 References [1] A. Ahmed, M. Aly, J. Gonzalez, S. Narayanamurthy, and A. Smola. Scalable inference in latent variable models. In International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (WSDM), 2012. [2] K. Bache and M. Lichman. UCI machine learning repository, 2013. [3] D. Blei and J. Lafferty. Correlated topic models. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2006. [4] D. Blei and J. Lafferty. Dynamic topic models. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2006. [5] D.M. Blei, A.Y. Ng, and M.I. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [6] N. Chen, J. Zhu, F. Xia, and B. Zhang. Generalized relational topic models with data augmentation. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), 2013. [7] M. Hoffman, D. Blei, and F. Bach. Online learning for latent Dirichlet allocation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2010. [8] C. Holmes and L. Held. Bayesian auxiliary variable models for binary and multinomial regression. Bayesian Analysis, 1(1):145?168, 2006. [9] D. Mimno, H. Wallach, and A. McCallum. Gibbs sampling for logistic normal topic models with graph-based priors. In NIPS Workshop on Analyzing Graphs, 2008. [10] D. Newman, A. Asuncion, P. Smyth, and M. Welling. Distributed algorithms for topic models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, (10):1801?1828, 2009. [11] J. Paisley, C. Wang, and D. Blei. The discrete infinite logistic normal distribution for mixedmembership modeling. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2011. [12] N. G. Polson and J. G. Scott. Default bayesian analysis for multi-way tables: a dataaugmentation approach. arXiv:1109.4180, 2011. [13] N. G. Polson, J. G. Scott, and J. Windle. Bayesian inference for logistic models using PolyaGamma latent variables. arXiv:1205.0310v2, 2013. [14] C. P. Robert. Simulation of truncated normal variables. Statistics and Compuating, 5:121?125, 1995. [15] W. Rudin. Principles of mathematical analysis. McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1964. [16] A. Smola and S. Narayanamurthy. An architecture for parallel topic models. Very Large Data Base (VLDB), 2010. [17] M. A. Tanner and W. H. Wong. The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentation. Journal of the Americal Statistical Association, 82(398):528?540, 1987. [18] D. van Dyk and X. Meng. The art of data augmentation. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 10(1):1?50, 2001. [19] L. Yao, D. Mimno, and A. McCallum. Efficient methods for topic model inference on streaming document collections. In International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data mining (SIGKDD), 2009. [20] A. Zhang, J. Zhu, and B. Zhang. Sparse online topic models. In International Conference on World Wide Web (WWW), 2013. [21] J. Zhu, X. Zheng, and B. Zhang. Improved bayesian supervised topic models with data augmentation. In Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), 2013. 9
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When Are Overcomplete Topic Models Identifiable? Uniqueness of Tensor Tucker Decompositions with Structured Sparsity Daniel Hsu Columbia University New York, NY [email protected] Animashree Anandkumar University of California Irvine, CA [email protected] Sham Kakade Microsoft Research Cambridge, MA [email protected] Majid Janzamin University of California Irvine, CA [email protected] Abstract Overcomplete latent representations have been very popular for unsupervised feature learning in recent years. In this paper, we specify which overcomplete models can be identified given observable moments of a certain order. We consider probabilistic admixture or topic models in the overcomplete regime, where the number of latent topics can greatly exceed the size of the observed word vocabulary. While general overcomplete topic models are not identifiable, we establish generic identifiability under a constraint, referred to as topic persistence. Our sufficient conditions for identifiability involve a novel set of ?higher order? expansion conditions on the topic-word matrix or the population structure of the model. This set of higher-order expansion conditions allow for overcomplete models, and require the existence of a perfect matching from latent topics to higher order observed words. We establish that random structured topic models are identifiable w.h.p. in the overcomplete regime. Our identifiability results allow for general (non-degenerate) distributions for modeling the topic proportions, and thus, we can handle arbitrarily correlated topics in our framework. Our identifiability results imply uniqueness of a class of tensor decompositions with structured sparsity which is contained in the class of Tucker decompositions, but is more general than the Candecomp/Parafac (CP) decomposition. Keywords: Overcomplete representation, admixture models, generic identifiability, tensor decomposition. 1 Introduction A probabilistic framework for incorporating features posits latent or hidden variables that can provide a good explanation to the observed data. Overcomplete probabilistic models can incorporate a much larger number of latent variables compared to the observed dimensionality. In this paper, we characterize the conditions under which overcomplete latent variable models can be identified from their observed moments. For any parametric statistical model, identifiability is a fundamental question of whether the model parameters can be uniquely recovered given the observed statistics. Identifiability is crucial in a number of applications where the latent variables are the quantities of interest, e.g. inferring diseases 1 (latent variables) through symptoms (observations), inferring communities (latent variables) via the interactions among the actors in a social network (observations), and so on. Moreover, identifiability can be relevant even in predictive settings, where feature learning is employed for some higher level task such as classification. For instance, non-identifiability can lead to the presence of nonisolated local optima for optimization-based learning methods, and this can affect their convergence properties, e.g. see [1]. In this paper, we characterize identifiability for a popular class of latent variable models, known as the admixture or topic models [2, 3]. These are hierarchical mixture models, which incorporate the presence of multiple latent states (i.e. topics) in documents consisting of a tuple of observed variables (i.e. words). In this paper, we characterize conditions under which the topic models are identified through their observed moments in the overcomplete regime. To this end, we introduce an additional constraint on the model, referred to as topic persistence. Intuitively, this captures the ?locality? effect among the observed words, and goes beyond the usual ?bag-of-words? or exchangeable topic models. Such local dependencies among observations abound in applications such as text, images and speech, and can lead to more faithful representation. In addition, we establish that the presence of topic persistence is central to obtaining model identifiability in the overcomplete regime, and we provide an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon in this paper. 1.1 Summary of Results In this paper, we provide conditions for generic1 model identifiability of overcomplete topic models given observable moments of a certain order (i.e., a certain number of words in each document). We introduce a novel constraint, referred to as topic persistence, and analyze its effect on identifiability. We establish identifiability in the presence of a novel combinatorial object, named as perfect n-gram matching, in the bipartite graph from topics to words (observed variables). Finally, we prove that random models satisfy these criteria, and are thus identifiable in the overcomplete regime. Persistent Topic Model: We first introduce the n-persistent topic model, where the parameter n determines the so-called persistence level of a common topic in a sequence of n successive words, as seen in Figure 1. The n-persistent model reduces to the popular ?bag-of-words? model, when n = 1, and to the single topic model (i.e. only one topic in each document) when n ? ?. Intuitively, topic persistence aids identifiability since we have multiple views of the common hidden topic generating a sequence of successive words. We establish that the bag-of-words model (with n = 1) is too non-informative about the topics to be identifiable in the overcomplete regime. On the other hand, n-persistent overcomplete topic models with n ? 2 are generically identifiable, and we provide a set of transparent conditions for identifiability. Deterministic Conditions for Identifiability: Our sufficient conditions for identifiability are in h the form of expansion conditions from the latent topic space to the observed word space. In the y2r y2 y1 overcomplete regime, there are more topics than words, and thus it is impossible to have expansion from topics to words. Instead, we impose a novel expansion constraint from topics to ?higher order? x(2r?1)n+1 x2rn x2n xn xn+1 words, which allows us to handle overcomplete x1 models. We establish that this condition translates Figure 1: Hierarchical structure of the nto the presence of a novel combinatorial object, persistent topic model. 2rn number of words referred to as perfect n-gram matching, on the (views) are shown for some integer r ? 1. A sinbipartite graph from topics to words, which encodes gle topic yj , j ? [2r], is chosen for each n succesthe sparsity pattern of the topic-word matrix. sive views {x(j?1)n+1 , . . . , x(j?1)n+n }. Intuitively, this condition implies ?diversity? of the word support for different topics which leads to identifiability. In addition, we present tradeoffs between the topic and word space dimensionality, topic persistence level, the order of the observed moments at hand, the maximum degree of any 1 A model is generically identifiable, if all the parameters in the parameter space are identifiable, almost surely. Refer to Definition 1 for more discussion. 2 topic in the bipartite graph, and the Kruskal rank [4] of the topic-word matrix, for identifiability to hold. We also provide the discussion that how ?1 -based optimization program can recover the model under additional constraints. Identifiability of Random Structured Topic Models: We explicitly characterize the regime of identifiability for the random setting, where each topic i is randomly supported on a set of di words, i.e. the bipartite graph is a random graph. For this random model with q topics, p-dimensional word vocabulary, and topic persistence level n, when q = O(pn ) and ?(log p) ? di ? ?(p1/n ), for all topics i, the topic-word matrix is identifiable from 2nth order observed moments with high probability. Furthermore, we establish that the size condition q = O(pn ) for identifiability is tight. Implications on Uniqueness of Overcomplete Tucker and CP Tensor Decompositions: We establish that identifiability of an overcomplete topic model is equivalent to uniqueness of the observed moment tensor (of a certain order) decomposition. Our identifiability results for persistent topic models imply uniqueness of a structured class of tensor decompositions, which is contained in the class of Tucker decompositions, but is more general than the candecomp/parafac (CP) decomposition [5]. This sub-class of Tucker decompositions involves structured sparsity and symmetry constraints on the core tensor, and sparsity constraints on the inverse factors of the decomposition. Detailed discussion on overview of techniques and related works are provided in the long version [12]. 2 Model Notations: The set {1, 2, . . . , n} is denoted by [n] := {1, 2, . . . , n}. The cardinality of set S is denoted by |S|. For any vector u (or matrix U ), the support denoted by Supp(u) corresponds to the location of its non-zero entries. For a vector u ? Rq , Diag(u) ? Rq?q is the diagonal matrix with u on its main diagonal. The column space of a matrix A is denoted by Col(A). Operators ??? and ??? refer to Kronecker and Khatri-Rao products [6], respectively. 2.1 Persistent topic model q?1 An admixture model := {u ? Pq specifies a q-dimensional vector of topic proportions h ?p ? q R : ui ? 0, i=1 ui = 1} which generates the observed variables xl ? R through vectors a1 , . . . , aq ? Rp . This collection of vectors ai , i ? [q], is referred to as the population structure or topic-word matrix [7]. For instance, ai represents the conditional distribution of words given topic i. The latent variable h is a q dimensional random vector h := [h1 , . . . , hq ]? known as proportion vector. A prior distribution P (h) over the probability simplex ?q?1 characterizes the prior joint distribution over the latent variables (topics) hi , i ? [q]. The n-persistent topic model has a three-level multi-view hierarchy in Figure 1. In this model, a common hidden topic is persistent for a sequence of n words {x(j?1)n+1 , . . . , x(j?1)n+n }, j ? [2r]. Note that the random observed variables (words) are exchangeable within groups of size n, where n is the persistence level, but are not globally exchangeable. We now describe a linear representation for the n-persistent topic model, on lines of [9], but with extensions to incorporate persistence. Each random variable yj , j ? [2r], is a discrete-valued qdimensional random variable encoded by the basis vectors ei , i ? [q], where ei is the i-th basis vector in Rq with the i-th entry equal to 1 and all the others equal to zero. When yj = ei ? Rq , q then the topic of j-th group of words is i. Given proportion vector  h ? R , topics yj , j ? [2r], are independently   drawn according to the conditional expectation E yj |h = h, j ? [2r], or equivalently Pr yj = ei |h = hi , j ? [2r], i ? [q]. Each observed variable xl for l ? [2rn], is a discrete-valued p-dimensional random variable (word) where p is the size of vocabulary. Again, we assume that variables xl , are encoded by the basis vectors ek , k ? [p], such that xl = ek ? Rp when the l-th word in the document is k. Given the 3 corresponding topic yj , j ? [2r], words xl , l ? [2rn], are independently drawn according to the conditional expectation   E x(j?1)n+k |yj = ei = ai , i ? [q], j ? [2r], k ? [n], where vectors ai ? Rp , i ? [q], are the conditional probability distribution vectors. The matrix A = [a1 |a2 | ? ? ? |aq ] ? Rp?q collecting these vectors is called population structure or topic-word matrix. The (2rn)-th order moment of observed variables xl , l ? [2rn], for some integer r ? 1, is defined as (in the matrix form)   rn rn M2rn (x) := E (x1 ? x2 ? ? ? ? ? xrn )(xrn+1 ? xrn+2 ? ? ? ? ? x2rn )? ? Rp ?p . (1) For the n-persistent topic model with 2rn number of observations (words) xl , l ? [2rn], the corre(n) sponding moment is denoted by M2rn (x). In this paper, we consider the problem of identifiability when exact moments are available. (n) Given M2rn (x), what are the sufficient conditions under which the population structure A = [a1 |a2 | ? ? ? |aq ] ? Rp?q is identifiable? This is answered in Section 3. 3 Sufficient Conditions for Generic Identifiability In this section, the identifiability result for the n-persistent topic model with access to (2n)-th order observed moment is provided. First, sufficient deterministic conditions on the population structure A are provided for identifiability in Theorem 1. Next, the deterministic analysis is specialized to a random structured model in Theorem 2. We now make the notion of identifiability precise. As defined in literature, (strict) identifiability means that the population structure A can be uniquely recovered up to permutation and scaling for all A ? Rp?q . Instead, we consider a more relaxed notion of identifiability, known as generic identifiability. Definition 1 (Generic identifiability). We refer to a matrix A ? Rp?q as generic, with a fixed sparsity pattern when the nonzero entries of A are drawn from a distribution which is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure 2 . For a given sparsity pattern, the class of population structure matrices is said to be generically identifiable [10], if all the non-identifiable matrices form a set of Lebesgue measure zero. The (2r)-th order moment of hidden variables h ? Rq , denoted by M2r (h), is defined as r times z r times }| { z }| {?  r r M2r (h) := E h ? ? ? ? ? h h ? ? ? ? ? h ? Rq ?q . (2) Condition 1 (Non-degeneracy). The (2r)-th order moment of hidden variables h ? Rq , defined in equation (2), is full rank (non-degeneracy of hidden nodes). Note that there is no hope of distinguishing distinct hidden nodes without this non-degeneracy assumption. We do not impose any other assumption on hidden variables and can incorporate arbitrarily correlated topics. Furthermore, we can only hope to identify the population structure A up to scaling and permutation. Therefore, we can identify A up to a canonical form defined as: Definition 2 (Canonical form). Population structure A is said to be in canonical form if all of its columns have unit norm. 3.1 Deterministic Conditions for Generic Identifiability Before providing the main result, a generalized notion of (perfect) matching for bipartite graphs is defined. We subsequently impose these conditions on the bipartite graph from topics to words which encodes the sparsity pattern of population structure A. 2 As an equivalent definition, if the non-zero entries of an arbitrary sparse matrix are independently perturbed with noise drawn from a continuous distribution to generate A, then A is called generic. 4 Generalized matching for bipartite graphs: A bipartite graph with two disjoint vertex sets Y and X and an edge set E between them is denoted by G(Y, X; E). Given the bi-adjacency matrix A, the notation G(Y, X; A) is also used to denote a bipartite graph. Here, the rows and columns of matrix A ? R|X|?|Y | are respectively indexed by X and Y vertex sets. Furthermore, for any subset S ? Y , the set of neighbors of vertices in S with respect to A is denoted by NA (S). Definition 3 ((Perfect) n-gram matching). A n-gram matching M for a bipartite graph G(Y, X; E) is a subset of edges M ? E which satisfies the following conditions. First, for any j ? Y , we have |NM (j)| ? n. Second, for any j1 , j2 ? Y, j1 6= j2 , we have min{|NM (j1 )|, |NM (j2 )|} > |NM (j1 ) ? NM (j2 )|. A perfect n-gram matching or Y -saturating n-gram matching for the bipartite graph G(Y, X; E) is a n-gram matching M in which each vertex in Y is the end-point of exactly n edges in M . In words, in a n-gram matching M , each vertex j ? Y is at most the end-point of n edges in M and for any pair of vertices in Y (j1 , j2 ? Y, j1 6= j2 ), there exists at least one non-common neighbor in set X for each of them (j1 and j2 ). Note that 1-gram matching is the same as regular matching for bipartite graphs. Remark 1 (Necessary size bound). Consider a bipartite graph G(Y,  X; E) with |Y | = q and |X| = p which has a perfect n-gram matching. Note that there are np n-combinations on X side and each combination can at most have one neighbor (a node in Y which is connected  to all nodes in the combination) through the matching, and therefore we necessarily have q ? np . Identifiability conditions based on existence of perfect n-gram matching in topic-word graph: Now, we are ready to propose the identifiability conditions and result. Condition 2 (Perfect n-gram matching on A). The bipartite graph G(Vh , Vo ; A) between hidden and observed variables, has a perfect n-gram matching. The above condition implies that the sparsity pattern of matrix A is appropriately scattered in the mapping from hidden to observed variables to be identifiable. Intuitively, it means that every hidden node can be distinguished from another hidden node by its unique set of neighbors under the corresponding n-gram matching. Furthermore, condition 2 is the key to be able to propose identifiability in the overcomplete regime. As stated in the size bound in Remark 1, for n ? 2, the number of hidden variables can be more than the number of observed variables and we can still have perfect n-gram matching. Definition 4 (Kruskal rank, [11]). The Kruskal rank or the krank of matrix A is defined as the maximum number k such that every subset of k columns of A is linearly independent. Condition 3 (Krank condition on A). The Kruskal rank of matrix A satisfies the bound krank(A) ? dmax (A)n , where dmax (A) is the maximum node degree of any column of A. In the overcomplete regime, it is not possible for A to be full column rank and krank(A) < |Vh | = q. However, note that a large enough krank ensures that appropriate sized subsets of columns of A are linearly independent. For instance, when krank(A) > 1, any two columns cannot be collinear and the above condition rules out the collinear case for identifiability. In the above condition, we see that a larger krank can incorporate denser connections between topics and words. The main identifiability result under a fixed graph structure is stated in the following theorem for n ? 2, where n is the topic persistence level. (n) Theorem 1 (Generic identifiability under deterministic topic-word graph structure). Let M2rn (x) in equation (1) be the (2rn)-th order observed moment of the n-persistent topic model, for some integer r ? 1. If the model satisfies conditions 1, 2 and 3, then, for any n ? 2, all the columns of (n) population structure A are generically identifiable from M2rn (x). Furthermore, the (2r)-th order moment of the hidden variables, denoted by M2r (h), is also generically identifiable. The theorem is proved in Appendix A of the long version [12]. It is seen that the population structure A is identifiable, given any observed moment of order at least 2n. Increasing the order of observed moment results in identifying higher order moments of the hidden variables. The above theorem does not cover the case of n = 1. This is the usual bag-of-words admixture model. Identifiability of this model has been studied earlier [13], and we recall it below. Remark 2 (Bag-of-words admixture model, [13]). Given (2r)-th order observed moments with r ? 1, the structure of the popular bag-of-words admixture model and the (2r)-th order moment of 5 hidden variables are identifiable, when A is full column rank and the following expansion condition holds [13] |NA (S)| ? |S| + dmax (A), ?S ? Vh , |S| ? 2. (3) Our result for n ? 2 in Theorem 1, provides identifiability in the overcomplete regime with weaker matching condition 2 and krank condition 3. The matching condition 2 is weaker than the above expansion condition which is based on the perfect matching and hence, does not allow overcomplete models. Furthermore, the above result for the bag-of-words admixture model requires full column rank of A which is more stringent than our krank condition 3. Remark 3 (Recovery using ?1 optimization). It turns out that our conditions for imply   identifiability (n) 3 ?n that the columns of the n-gram matrix A , are the sparsest vectors in Col M2n (x) , having a tensor rank of one. See Appendix A in the long version [12]. This implies recovery of the columns of A through exhaustive search, which is not efficient. Efficient ?1 -based recovery algorithms have been analyzed in [13, 14] for the undercomplete case (n = 1). They can be employed here for recovery from higher order moments as well. Exploiting additional structure present in A?n , for n > 1, such as rank-1 test devices proposed in [15] are interesting avenues for future investigation. 3.2 Analysis Under Random Topic-Word Graph Structures In this section, we specialize the identifiability result to the random case. This result is based on more transparent conditions on the size and the degree of the random bipartite graph G(Vh , Vo ; A). We consider the random model where in the bipartite graph G(Vh , Vo ; A), each node i ? Vh is randomly connected to di different nodes in set Vo . Note that this is a heterogeneous degree model. Condition 4 (Size condition). The random bipartite n graph G(Vh , Vo ; A) with |Vh | = q, |Vo | = p, and A ? Rp?q , satisfies the size condition q ? c np for some constant 0 < c < 1. This size condition is required to establish that the random bipartite graph has a perfect n-gram matching (and hence satisfies deterministic condition 2). It is shown that the necessary size constraint q = O(pn ) stated in Remark 1, is achieved in the random case. Thus, the above constraint allows for the overcomplete regime, where q ? p for n ? 2, and is tight. Condition 5 (Degree condition). In the random bipartite graph G(Vh , Vo ; A) with |Vh | = q, |Vo | = p, and A ? Rp?q , the degree di of nodes i ? Vh satisfies the lower upper bounds dmin  and  ? n?1 1 2 max{1 + ? log p, ? log p} for some constants ? > log , ? > max 2n + 1 , 2?n , and ? log 1/c c 1 dmax ? (cp) n . Intuitively, the lower bound on the degree is required to show that the corresponding bipartite graph G(Vh , Vo ; A) has sufficient number of random edges to ensure that it has perfect n-gram matching with high probability. The upper bound on the degree is mainly required to satisfy the krank condition 3, where dmax (A)n ? krank(A). It is important to see that, for n ? 2, the above condition on degree covers a range of models from sparse to intermediate regimes and it is reasonable in a number of applications that each topic does not generate a very large number of words. Probability rate constants: The probability rate of success in the following random identifiability result is specified by constants ? ? > 0 and ? = ?1 + ?2 > 0 as ? ? = ?? log c ? n + 1,  c  ? e2 ?1 = en?1 n?1 + n? +1 , n 1 ? ?1 cn?1 e2 ?2 = n , n (1 ? ?2 )  ?? log 1/c < ?1 < 1 and where ?1 and ?2 are some constants satisfying e2 np 1. 3 A?n := A ? ? ? ? ? A. | {z } n times 6 (4) (5) (6) cn?1 e2 ?? ? nn p < ?2 < h h y x1 xm xm+1 x2m y1 ym ym+1 y2m x1 xm xm+1 x2m (b) Bag-of-words admixture model (1-persistent topic model) (a) Single topic model (infinite-persistent topic model) Figure 2: Hierarchical structure of the single topic model and bag-of-words admixture model shown for 2m number of words (views). (n) Theorem 2 (Random identifiability). Let M2rn (x) in equation (1) be the (2rn)-th order observed moment of the n-persistent topic model for some integer r ? 1. If the model with random population ? structure A satisfies conditions 1, 4 and 5, then whp (with probability at least 1??p?? for constants ? ? > 0 and ? > 0, specified in (4)-(6)), for any n ? 2, all the columns of population structure A are (n) identifiable from M2rn (x). Furthermore, the (2r)-th order moment of hidden variables, denoted by M2r (h), is also identifiable, whp. The theorem is proved in Appendix B of the long version [12]. Similar to the deterministic analysis, it is seen that the population structure A is identifiable given any observed moment with order at least 2n. Increasing the order of observed moment results in identifying higher order moments of the hidden variables. The above identifiability theorem only covers for n ? 2 and the n = 1 case is addressed in the following remark. Remark 4 (Bag-of-words admixture model). The identifiability result for the random bag-of-words admixture model is comparable to the result in [14], which considers exact recovery of sparsely-used dictionaries. They assume that Y = DX is given for some unknown arbitrary dictionary D ? Rq?q and unknown random sparse coefficient matrix X ? Rq?p . They establish that if D ? Rq?q is full rank and the random sparse coefficient matrix X ? Rq?p follows the Bernoulli-subgaussian model with size constraint p > Cq log q and degree constraint O(log q) < E[d] < O(q log q), then the model is identifiable, whp. Comparing the size and degree constraints, our identifiability result for n ? 2 requires more stringent upper bound on the degree (d = O(p1/n )), while more relaxed condition on the size (q = O(pn )) which allows to identifiability in the overcomplete regime. Remark 5 (The size condition is tight). The size bound q = O(pn ) in the above theorem achieves  the necessary condition that q ? np = O(pn ) (see Remark 1), and is therefore tight. The sufficiency is argued in Theorem 3 of the long version [12], where we show that the matching condition 2 holds under the above size and degree conditions 4 and 5. 4 Why Persistence Helps in Identifiability of Overcomplete Models? In this section, we provide the moment characterization of the 2-persistent topic model. Then, we provide a discussion and comparison on why persistence helps in providing identifiability in the overcomplete regime. The moment characterization and detailed tensor analysis is provided in the long version [12]. The single topic model (n ? ?) is shown in Figure 2a and the bag-of-words admixture model (n = 1) is shown in Figure 2b. In order to have a fair comparison among these different models, we fix the number of observed variables to 4 (case m = 2) and vary the persistence level. Consider three different models: 2-persistent topic model, single topic model and bag-of-words admixture model (1-persistent topic model). From moment characterization results provided in the long version [12], we have the following moment forms for each of these models. For the 2-persistent topic model with 4 words (r = 1, n = 2), we have  (2) M4 (x) = (A ? A)E hh? ](A ? A)? . 7 (7) For the single topic model with 4 words, we have   (?) M4 (x) = (A ? A) Diag E h] (A ? A)? , And for the bag-of-words-admixture model with 4 words (r = 2, n = 1), we have   (1) M4 (x) = (A ? A)E (h ? h)(h ? h)? (A ? A)? . (8) (9) 2 Note that for the single topic model in (8), the Khatri-Rao product matrix A ? A ? Rp ?q has the same as the number of columns (i.e. the latent dimensionality) of the original matrix A, while the number of rows (i.e. the observed dimensionality) is increased. Thus, the Khatri-Rao product ?expands? the effect of hidden variables to higher order observed variables, which is the key towards identifying overcomplete models. In other words, the original overcomplete representation becomes determined due to the ?expansion effect? of the Khatri-Rao product structure of the higher order observed moments. On the other hand, in the bag-of-words admixture model in (9), this interesting ?expansion property? 2 2 does not occur, and we have the Kronecker product A ? A ? Rp ?q , in place of the Khatri-Rao products. The Kronecker product operation increases both the number of the columns (i.e. latent dimensionality) and the number of rows (i.e. observed dimensionality), which implies that higher order moments do not help in identifying overcomplete models. Finally, Contrasting equation (7) with (8) and (9), we find that the 2-persistent model retains the desirable property of possessing Khatri-Rao products, while being more general than the form for single topic model in (8). This key property enables us to establish identifiability of topic models with finite persistence levels. Remark 6 (Relationship to tensor decompositions). In the long version of this work [12], we establish that the tensor representation of our model is a special case of the Tucker representation, but more general than the symmetric CP representation [6]. Therefore, our identifiability results also imply uniqueness of a class of tensor decompositions with structured sparsity which is contained in the class of Tucker decompositions, but is more general than the Candecomp/Parafac (CP) decomposition. 5 Proof sketch (n) The moment of n-persistent topic model with 2n words is derived as M2n (x) =   ? (A?n ) E hh? (A?n ) ; see [12]. When hidden variables are non-degenerate and A?n is full col  (n) umn rank, we have Col M2n (x) = Col A?n . Therefore, the problem of recovering A from  (n) M2n (x) reduces to finding A?n in Col A?n . Then, under the expansion condition 4   (S) ? |S| + dmax A?n , ?S ? Vh , |S| > krank(A), NA?n Rest.  we establish that, matrix A is identifiable from Col A?n . This identifiability claim is proved ?n by showing are the sparsest and rank-1 (in the tensor form) vectors in  that the columns of A Col A?n under the sufficient expansion and genericity conditions. Then, it is established that, sufficient combinatorial conditions on matrix A (conditions 2 and 3) ensure that the expansion and rank conditions on A?n are satisfied. This is shown by proving that the existence of perfect n-gram matching on A results in the existence of perfect matching on A?n . For further discussion on proof techniques, see the long version [12]. Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge useful discussions with Sina Jafarpour, Adel Javanmard, Alex Dimakis, Moses Charikar, Sanjeev Arora, Ankur Moitra and Kamalika Chaudhuri. A. Anandkumar is supported in part by Microsoft Faculty Fellowship, NSF Career award CCF-1254106, NSF Award CCF-1219234, ARO Award W911NF-12-1-0404, and ARO YIP Award W911NF-13-1-0084. M. Janzamin is supported by NSF Award CCF-1219234, ARO Award W911NF-12-1-0404 and ARO YIP Award W911NF-13-1-0084. 4 ?n A?n , in which the redundant rows of A?n are removed. Rest. is the restricted version of n-gram matrix A 8 References [1] Andr?e Uschmajew. Local convergence of the alternating least squares algorithm for canonical tensor approximation. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications, 33(2):639?652, 2012. [2] David M. Blei, Andrew Y. Ng, and Michael I. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet Allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [3] J. K. Pritchard, M. Stephens, and P. Donnelly. 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