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Forging The Graphs: A Low Rank and Positive Semidefinite Graph Learning Approach Dijun Luo, Chris Ding, Heng Huang, Feiping Nie Department of Computer Science and Engineering The University of Texas at Arlington [email protected], [email protected] [email protected], [email protected] Abstract In many graph-based machine learning and data mining approaches, the quality of the graph is critical. However, in real-world applications, especially in semisupervised learning and unsupervised learning, the evaluation of the quality of a graph is often expensive and sometimes even impossible, due the cost or the unavailability of ground truth. In this paper, we proposed a robust approach with convex optimization to ?forge? a graph: with an input of a graph, to learn a graph with higher quality. Our major concern is that an ideal graph shall satisfy all the following constraints: non-negative, symmetric, low rank, and positive semidefinite. We develop a graph learning algorithm by solving a convex optimization problem and further develop an efficient optimization to obtain global optimal solutions with theoretical guarantees. With only one non-sensitive parameter, our method is shown by experimental results to be robust and achieve higher accuracy in semi-supervised learning and clustering under various settings. As a preprocessing of graphs, our method has a wide range of potential applications machine learning and data mining. 1 Introduction Many machine learning algorithms use graphs as input, such as clustering [16, 14], manifold based dimensional reduction [2, 15], and graph-based semi-supervised learning [23, 22]. In these approaches, we are particularly interested in the similarity among objects. However, the observation of similarity graphs often contain noise which sometimes mislead the learning algorithm, especially in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. Deriving graphs with high quality becomes attractive in machine learning and data mining research. A robust and stable graph learning algorithm is especially desirable in unsupervised and semisupervised learning, because the unavailability or high cost of ground truth in real world applications. In this paper, we develop a novel graph learning algorithm based on convex optimization, which leads to robust and competitive results. 1.1 Motivation and Main Problem In this section, the properties of similarity matrix are revisited from point of view of normalized cut clustering [19]. Given a symmetric similarity matrix W ? Rn?n on n objects, normalized cut solves the following optimization problem [10]. min trH? (D ? W)H s.t. H? DH = I, H?0 1 (1) where H ? {0, 1}n?K is the cluster indicator matrix, or equivalently, ? max trF? WF s.t. F? F = I, (2) F?0 ? = where F = [f1 , f2 , ? ? ? , fK ], H = [h1 , h2 , ? ? ? , hK ], fk = D 2 hk /kD 2 hk k, 1 ? k ? K, W Pn ? 12 ? 12 D WD , D = diag(d1 , d2 , ? ? ? , dn ), di = j=1 Wij , I is the identity matrix, and K is the number of groups. Eq. (2) can be further rewritten as, ? ? FF? kF s.t. F? F = I, min kW (3) 1 1 F?0 where k ? kF denotes the Frobenius norm. We notice that ? ? G + G ? FF? kF ? kW ? ? GkF + kG ? FF? kF , kW (4) n?n for any G ? R . Our goal is to minimize the LHS (left-hand side); Instead, we can minimize the RHS which is the upper-bound of LHS. Thus we need to find the intermediate matrix G, i.e., we learn a surrogate graph which is close but ? Our upper-bounding approach offers flexibility which allows us to impose cernot identical to W. tain desirable properties. Note that matrix FF? holds the following properties: (P1) symmetric, (P2) nonnegative, (P3) low rank, and (P4) positive semidefinite. This suggests a convex graph learning ? 2 s.t. G < 0, kGk? ? c, G = G? , G ? 0, min kG ? Wk (5) G F where G < 0 denotes the positive semidefinite constraint, k ? k? denotes the trace norm, i.e. the sum of the singular values [8], and c is a model parameter which controls the rank of G. The constraint of G ? 0 is to force the similarity to be naturally non-negative. By intuition, one might impose row rank constraint of rank(G) ? c. But this leads to a non-convex optimization, which is undesirable in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. Following matrix completion methods [5], the trace constraint in Eq. (5) is a good surrogate for the low rank constraint. For notational convenience, the ? is denoted as W in the rest of the paper. normalized similarity matrix W By solving Eq. (5), we are actually seeking a similarity matrix which satisfies all the properties of a perfect similarity matrix (P1?P4) and which is close to the original input matrix G. Our whole paper is here dedicated to solve Eq. (5) and to demonstrate the usefulness of its optimal solution in clustering and semi-supervised learning using both theoretical and empirical evidences. 1.2 Related Work Our method can be viewed as a preprocessing for similarity matrix and a large number of machine learning and data mining approaches require a similarity matrix (interpreted as a weighted graph) as input. For example, in unsupervised clustering, Normalized Cut [19], Ratio Cut [11], Cheeger Cut [3] have been widely applied in various real world applications. In graphical models for relational data, e.g. Mixed Membership Block models [1] can be also interpreted as generative models on the similarity matrices among objects. Thus a similarity matrix preprocessing model can be widely applied. A large number of approaches have been developed to learn similarity matrix with different emphasis. Local Linear Embedding (LLE ) [17, 18] and Linear Label Propagation [21] can be viewed as obtaining a similarity matrix using sparse coding. Another way to perform the similarity matrix preprocessing is to take a graph as input and to obtain a refined graph by learning, such as bi-stochastic graph learning [13]. Our method falls in this category. We will compare our method with these methods in the experimental section. On the optimization techniques for problems with multiple constraints, there also exist many related researches. First, von Neumann provided a convergence proof of successive projection method that it guarantees to converge to feasible solution in convex optimization with multiple constraints, which was employed in the paper by Liu et al. [13]. In this paper, we develop a novel optimization algorithm to solve the optimization problem with multiple convex constraints (including the inequality constraints), which is guaranteed to find the global solution. More explicitly, we develop a variant of inexact Augmented Lagrangian Multiplier method to handle inequality constraints. We also develop a useful Lemma to handle the subproblems with trace norm constraint in the main algorithm. Interestingly, one of the derived subproblems is the ?1 ball projection problem, which can be solved elegantly by simple thresholding. 2 (a) (c1) (d) 2 Eq. (5) Eq. (6) (b) (c2) Eigenvalues 1.5 1 0.5 0 ?0.5 ?1 0 5 10 15 Sorting index 20 25 30 Figure 1: A toy example of low rank and positive semidefinite graph learning. (a): A perfect similarity matrix. (b): Adding noise from (a). (c1): the optimal solution of Eq. (5) by using the matrix in (b) as G. (c2): the optimal solution of Eq. (6) by using the matrix in (b) as G. (d): sorted eigenvalues for the two solutions of Eq. (5) and Eq. (6). 2 A Toy Example We first emphasize the usefulness of the positive semidefinite and low rank constraints in problem of Eq. (5) using a toy example. In this toy example, we also solve the following problem for contrast, min kG ? Wk2F s.t. G = G? , Ge = e, G ? 0, G (6) where e = [1, 1, ? ? ? , 1]T and the constraints of positive semidefinite and low rank are removed from Eq. (5) and instead a bi-stochastic constraint is applied (Ge = e). Notice that the model defined in Eq. (6) is used in the bi-stochastic graph learning [13]. We solve Eqs. (5) and (6) for the same input G and compare the solution to see the effect of positive semidefinite and low rank constraints. In the toy example, we first generate a perfect similarity matrix W in which Wij = 1 if data points i, j are in the same group and Wij = 0 otherwise. Three groups of data points (10 data points in each group) are considered. G are shown in Figure 1 (a) with black color denoting zeros values. We then randomly add some positive noise on G which is shown in Figure 1 (b). Then we solve Eqs. (5) and (6) and the results of G is shown in Figure 1 (c1) and (c2). The observation is that Eq. (5) recover the perfect similarity much more accurately than Eq. (6). The reason is that in model of Eq. (6), the low rank and positive semidefinite constraints are ignored and the result deviates from the ground truth. We show the eigenvalues distributions of G for solution in Figure 1 (d) for both methods in Eqs. (5) and (6). One can observe that the solution Eq. (5) gives low rank and positive semidefinite results, while the solution for Eq. (6) is full rank and has negative eigenvalues. Since the solution of Eq. (5) is always positive, symmetric, low rank, and positive semidefinite, we called our solution the Non-negative Low-rank Kernel (NLK). 2.1 NLK for Semi-supervised Learning Although NKL is mainly developed for unsupervised learning, it can be easily extended to incorporate the label information in semi-supervised learning [23]. Assume we are given a set of data X = [x1 , x2 , ? ? ? , x? , x?+1 , ? ? ? , xn ] where the first l data points are labeled as [y1 , y2 , ? ? ? , y? ]. Then we have more information to learn a better similarity matrix. Here we add additional constraints on Eq. (5) by enforcing the similarity to be zeros for those paris of data points in different classes, i.e. Gij = 0 if yi 6= yj , 1 ? i, j ? ?. By considering all the constraints, we optimize the following, min kG ? Wk2F s.t. G < 0, kGk? ? c, G = G? , G ? 0, Gij = 0, ?yi 6= yj . G (7) We will demonstrate the advantage of these semi-supervision constraints in the experimental section. The computational algorithm is given in ?3.3. 3 3 Optimization The optimization problemss in Eqs. (5) and (7) are non-trivial since there are multiple constraints, including both equality and inequality constraints. Our strategy is to introduce two extra copies of optimization variable X and Y to split the constraints into several directly solvable subproblems, min kG ? Wk2F , s.t. G min X kX ? Wk2F , s.t. min kY ? Wk2F , s.t. Y G?0 (8a) X < 0, with X = G. (8b) kYk? ? c, with Y = G (8c) More formally, we solve the following problem, minG s.t. kG ? Wk2F G?0 X = G, X < 0, Y = G, |Yk? ? c, (9a) (9b) (9c) (9d) One should notice that problem in Eqs. (9a) ? (9d) is equivalent to our main problem in Eq. (5). In the rest of this section, we will employ a variant of Augmented Lagrangian Multiplier (AML) method to solve Eqs. (9a) ? (9c). 3.1 Seeking Global Solutions: A Variant of ALM The augmented Lagrangian multiplier function of Eqs. (9a) ? (9d) is ? ? ?(G, X, Y) =kG ? Wk2F ? h?, X ? Gi + kG ? Xk2F ? h?, Y ? Gi + kG ? Yk2F , 2 2 (10) with constraints of G ? 0, X < 0, and kYk? ? c, where ?, ? are the Lagrangian multipliers. Then ALM method leads to the following updating steps, G ? arg min ?(G, X, Y, Z) (11a) X ? arg min ?(G, X, Y, Z) (11b) G?0 X<0 Y ? arg min ?(G, X, Y, Z) kYk? ?c ? ? ? ? ? (G ? X) ? ? ? ? ? (G ? Y) ? ? ??, t ? t + 1. (11c) (11d) (11e) (11f) Notice that the symmetric constraint is removed here. We will later show that given a symmetric input W, the output of our algorithm automatically satisfies the symmetric constraints. 3.2 Solving the Subproblems in ALM X and Y updating algorithms in Eqs. (11b and 11c) contain eigenvalue constraints, which appear complicated. Fortunately they have closed form solution. To show that, we first introduce the following useful Lemma. Lemma 3.1. Consider the following problem, min kX ? Ak2F , s.t. ?i (X) ? ci , 1 ? i ? m, X (12) where ?i (X) ? ci is any constraint on eigenvalues of X, i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , m and m is the number of constraints. Then there exists a diagonal matrix S such that USU? is an optimizer of Eq. (12), where U?U? = A is the eigenvector decomposition of A. S relates to eigenvalues of ? = diag(?1 , ? ? ? , ?n ) and satisfying the constraints. 4 Proof. Let VSV? = X and UDU? = A be the eigenvector decomposition of X and A, respectively. By applying von Neumann?s trace inequality, the following holds for any X and A, trX? A ? trSD. (13) Then trVSV? A = trX? A ? trSD = tr(USU? )(UDU? ) = USU? A, (14) which leads to kUSU? ? Ak2F ? kVSV? ? Ak2F . (15) ? Now assume X = VSV is a minimizer of Eq. (12). By comparing two solutions of X = VSV? and Z = USU? , one should notice (a) that Z satisfies all the constraints of ?i (Z) = ?i (X) ? ci , 1 ? i ? m in Eq. (12) and (b) that Z gives equal or less value of the objective, thus Z = USU? ia also a minimizer of Eq. (12). Lemma 3.1 shows an interesting property of the matrix approximation with eigenvalue or singular value constraint: the optimal solution matrix shares the same subspace of the input matrix. This is useful, because once the subspace is determined, the whole optimization becomes much easier. Thus the lemma provides a powerful mathematical tool in computation of optimization problem with eigenvalue and singular value constraints. Here, we apply Lemma 3.1 to solve the updating of X and Y in ?3.2.2 - 3.2.3. 3.2.1 Updating G By ignoring the irrelevant terms with respect to G , we can rewrite Eq. (11a) as following, G ? arg min k(2 + 2?)G ? (2W + ?(X + Y) + ? + ?) k2F + const G?0   2W + ?(X + Y) + ? + ? = max ,0 . 2 + 2? (16) (17) 3.2.2 Updating X For Eq. (11b), we need to solve the following subproblem min kX ? Pk2F , X < 0, where P = G + ?/?. X (18) Notice that X < 0 is constraint on the eigenvalues of X. Then we can directly apply Lemma 3.1, X can be written as USU? and Eq. (18) becomes min kUSU? ? UDU? k2F , s.t. S ? 0, (19) S where UDU? = P is the eigenvector decomposition of P. Let S = diag(s1 , s2 , ? ? ? , sn ) and D = diag(d1 , d2 , ? ? ? , dn ). Then Eq. (19) can be further rewritten as, n X 2 (si ? di ) , s.t. si ? 0, i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , n. (20) min s1 ,s2 ,??? ,sn i=1 Eq. (20) has simple closed form solution as si = max(di , 0), i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , n. 3.2.3 Updating Y Eq. (11c) can be rewritten as, min kY ? Qk2F , kYk? ? c, Y where Q = G + 1 ? ?. (21) The corresponding Lagrangian function is, L(Y, ?) = kY ? Qk2F + ? (kYk? ? c) . (22) Since we do not know the true Lagrangian multiplier ?, we cannot directly apply the singular value thresholding technique [4]. However, we find Lemma 3.1 useful again. We notice that Y is symmetric and the constraint of kYk? ? c becomes a constraint on the eigenvalues of Y. Let Y = USU? and by directly applying Lemma 3.1, Eq. (21) can be further written as, n X ? ? 2 |si | ? c, (23) min kUSU ? UDU kF , s.t. S i=1 5 or, min ks ? dk2 , s.t. s n X |si | ? c, (24) i=1 where S = diag(s), s = [s1 , s2 , ? ? ? , sn ]? , D = diag(d), and d = [d1 , d2, ? ? ? , dn ]? . Interestingly, the above problem is a standard ?1 ball optimization problem which has been studied for a long time and Duchi et al. has recently P provided a simple and elegant solution [7]. The final solution is to search the least ? ? 0 such that i max(|di | ? ?, 0) ? c, i.e. ? = arg min ? s.t. ? n X max(|di | ? ?, 0) ? c. (25) i=1 This can be easily done by sorting the |di | and try the ? values between two consecutive sorted |di |. And the solution is si = sign(di ) max(|di | ? ?, 0). (26) Notice that in each step of algorithm, the solution has closed form solution and that the output of G is always symmetric, which indicates that the constraint of G = G? is automatically satisfied in each step. 3.3 NLK Algorithm For Semi-supervised Learning In many real world settings, we know partially of data class labels and hope to further utilize such information, as described in Eq. (7). Fortunately, the corresponding optimization problem remains convex. The augmented Lagrangian multiplier function is ?(G, X, Y) = kG ? Wk2F ? h?, X ? Gi + ?2 kX ? Gk2F ? h?, Y ? Gi  P + ?2 kY ? Gk2F + (i,j)?T ?2 G2ij ? ?ij Gij , (27) This is identical to Eq. (10), except we added ? as additional Lagrangian multiplier for the semisupervised constraints, i.e. the desired similarity Gij = 0 for (i, j) having different known class labels. Here T = {(i, j) : yi 6= yj , i, j = 1, 2, ? ? ? , ?}. We modify Algorithm of Eqs. (11a?11f) to solve this problem. The updating of X and Y remains the same as NLK algorithm described previously. To update G, we set ??(G, X, Y)/?G = 0 and obtain   ? 2Wij + ?(Xij + Yij ) + ?ij + ?ij + ?ij ? ? ,0 ? max 2 + 3?   Gij ? ? 2Wij + ?(Xij + Yij ) + ?ij + ?ij ? ? max ,0 2 + 2? if yi 6= yj , otherwise. (28) For Lagrangian multiplier ?, the corresponding updating is ?ij ? ?ij ? ?Gij , ?yi 6= yj . (29) Thus the semi-supervised learning algorithm is nearly identical to the unsupervised learning algorithm ? one strength of our unified NLK approach. We summarize the NLK algorithms for unsupervised and semi-supervised learning in Algorithm 1. In the algorithm, Lines 4 and 9 are updated for semi-supervised learning while other lines are shared. 6 Algorithm 1 NLK Algorithm For Supervised Learning and Semi-supervised Learning Require: Weighted graph W, model parameters c, optimization parameter ?, partial label y for semi-supervised learning. 1: Initialization: G = W, ? = 0, ? = 0, ? = 0, ? = 1. 2: while Not converged do   3: For unsupervised learning, G ? max 2W+?(X+Y)+?+? , 0 . 2+2? 4: For semi-supervised learning, update G using Eq. (28). 5: X ? UD+ U? where UDU? = G + ?/?. 6: Y ? USU? where UDU? = G + ?/? and S is computed by Eq. (26). 7: ? ? ? ? ? (X ? G) 8: ? ? ? ? ? (Y ? G) 9: For semi-supervised learning, ?ij ? ?ij ? ?Gij , ?yi 6= yj . 10: ? ? ??. 11: end while 12: return G 3.4 Theoretical Analysis of The Algorithm Since the objective function and all the constraints are convex, we have the following [12] Theorem 3.2. Algorithm 1 converges to the global solution of Eq. (5) or Eq. (7). Notice that this conclusion is stronger than that in the related research papers [13] for graph learning. 4 Experimental Validation As mentioned in the introduction section, the optimization results for NLK (Eq. (5)) can be used as preprocessing for any graph based methods. Here we evaluated NLK on several state-of-the-art graph based learning models, include Normalized Cut (Ncut) [19] for unsupervised learning and Gaussian Fields and Harmonic Functions (GFHF) and local and global consistency learning (LGC) for semi-supervised learning. We compare the clustering in both clustering accuracy and normalized mutual information (NMI). For the semi-supervised learning model (Eq. (7)), we evaluate the our models on GFHF and LGC models. For semi-supervised learning, we measure the classification accuracy. We verify the algorithms on four data sets: AT&T (n = 400, p = 644, K = 40), BinAlpha (n = 1404, p = 320, K = 36), Segment (n = 2310, p = 19, K = 7), and Vehicle(n = 946, p = 18, K = 4) from UCI data [9], where n, p, and K are the number of data points, features, and classes, respectively. 4.1 Experimental Settings For clustering, we compare three  similarity matrices: (1) original from Gaussian kernel matrix, wij = exp ?kxi ? xj k2 /2? 2 , where ? is set to the average pairwise distances among all the data points. (2) the BBS (Bregmanian Bi-Stochastication) [20], and our method (NLK). The clustering algorithm of Normalized Cut [19] is applied on the three similarity matrices. Then we have total three clustering approaches: Normalized Cut (Ncut), BBS+Ncut, and NLK+Ncut. For each clustering method, we try 100 random trials for different clustering initializations. For the semi-supervised learning, we test three basic graph-based semi-supervised learning models. Gaussian Fields and Harmonic Functions (GFHF) [23], Local and Global Consistency learning (LGC) [22], and Green?s function (Green) [6]. We compare 4 types of similarity matrices: original Gaussian kernel matrix, as discussed before, BBS, NLK, and NLK with semi-supervised constraints (model in Eq. (7), denoted by NLK Semi). Then we totally have 3 ? 4 methods. For each method, we random split the data to 30%/70% where 30% is is used as labeled data an the other 70% as the testing data. We try 100 random split and we report the average and standard deviations. 4.2 Parameter Settings For all the similarity learning approaches (BBS, NLK, and NLK Semi), we set the convergent criteria as follows. If kGt+1 ? Gt k2F /kGt k2F < 10?10 we stop the algorithms. For our methods (NLK 7 Table 1: Clustering accuracy and NMI comparison over 3 methods, Normalized Cut (Ncut), BBS+Ncut, and NLK+Ncut on 4 data sets. The best results are highlighted in bold. Accuracy AT&T BinAlpha Segment Vehicle Ncut 0.607 ? 0.022 0.431 ? 0.018 0.613 ? 0.018 0.383 ? 0.001 NMI BBS+Ncut 0.686 ? 0.021 0.444 ? 0.022 0.593 ? 0.009 0.383 ? 0.000 NLK+Ncut 0.767 ? 0.006 0.490 ? 0.009 0.616 ? 0.002 0.426 ? 0.000 Ncut 0.785 ? 0.025 0.618 ? 0.013 0.528 ? 0.016 0.121 ? 0.001 BBS+Ncut 0.836 ? 0.026 0.629 ? 0.015 0.579 ? 0.013 0.122 ? 0.000 NLK+Ncut 0.873 ? 0.025 0.673 ? 0.011 0.538 ? 0.002 0.184 ? 0.000 and NLK Semi), there is one model parameter c, which is always set to be c = 0.5kWk? where W is the input similarity matrix. 4.3 Experimental Results We show that clustering results in Table 1 where we compare both measurements (accuracy, NMI) over 3 methods on 4 data sets. For each method, we report the average performance and the corresponding standard deviation. Out of 4 data sets, our method outperforms all the other methods with all the measurements on 3 data sets (AT&T, BinAlpha, and Vehicle). We also test the semi-supervised learning performance over the 12 methods on 4 data sets. In each method on each data, we show the original performance values with dots. Shown are also the average accuracies and the corresponding standard deviations. Out of 4 data sets, our method (NLK and NLK Semi) outperform the other methods. AT&T (a) GFHF BinAlpha Original BBS NLK NLK_Semi (b) LGC 0.2 0.4 0.6 (c) Green 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7445 ? 0.0442 0.6729 ? 0.0195 0.5981 ? 0.0465 0.4715 ? 0.0803 0.7926 ? 0.0331 0.6802 ? 0.0188 0.7104 ? 0.0277 0.4843 ? 0.0770 0.8038 ? 0.0290 0.6857 ? 0.0179 0.7121 ? 0.0289 0.4931 ? 0.0777 0.8500 ? 0.0343 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7257 ? 0.0213 1 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.4250 ? 0.0745 0.4881 ? 0.0760 0.4936 ? 0.0671 0.6605 ? 0.0480 0.4252 ? 0.0755 0.5892 ? 0.0656 0.5112 ? 0.0666 0.6649 ? 0.0452 0.4367 ? 0.0791 0.6850 ? 0.0526 0.6233 ? 0.0292 0.7213 ? 0.0451 0.4805 ? 0.0789 0.6997 ? 0.0518 0.2 1 0.4 0.6561 ? 0.0480 0.8 Original BBS NLK NLK_Semi Vehicle 0.4720 ? 0.0772 0.8 Original BBS NLK NLK_Semi Segmentation 0.4807 ? 0.0419 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6707 ? 0.0313 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7148 ? 0.0261 0.5497 ? 0.0768 0.6887 ? 0.0320 0.5299 ? 0.0266 0.7176 ? 0.0269 0.5527 ? 0.0752 0.7143 ? 0.0325 0.5352 ? 0.0255 0.7340 ? 0.0326 0.5545 ? 0.0785 0.7539 ? 0.0366 0.5965 ? 0.0215 0.7774 ? 0.0349 0.5584 ? 0.0806 0.7648 ? 0.0395 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.6132 ? 0.0274 0.4 0.6 0.8 Figure 2: Semi-supervised learning performance over the 12 methods on 4 data sets. 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Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation with Non-Parametric Copulas David Lopez-Paz MPI for Intelligent Systems [email protected] Jos?e Miguel Hern?andez-Lobato University of Cambridge [email protected] Bernhard Sch?olkopf MPI for Intelligent Systems [email protected] Abstract A new framework based on the theory of copulas is proposed to address semisupervised domain adaptation problems. The presented method factorizes any multivariate density into a product of marginal distributions and bivariate copula functions. Therefore, changes in each of these factors can be detected and corrected to adapt a density model accross different learning domains. Importantly, we introduce a novel vine copula model, which allows for this factorization in a non-parametric manner. Experimental results on regression problems with real-world data illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach when compared to state-of-the-art techniques. 1 Introduction When humans address a new learning problem, they often use knowledge acquired while learning different but related tasks in the past. For example, when learning a second language, people rely on grammar rules and word derivations from their mother tongue. This is called language transfer [19]. However, in machine learning, most of the traditional methods are not able to exploit similarities between different learning tasks. These techniques only achieve good performance when the data distribution is stable between training and test phases. When this is not the case, it is necessary to a) collect and label additional data and b) re-run the learning algorithm. However, these operations are not affordable in most practical scenarios. Domain adaptation, transfer learning or multitask learning frameworks [17, 2, 5, 13] confront these issues by first, building a notion of task relatedness and second, providing mechanisms to transfer knowledge between similar tasks. Generally, we are interested in improving predictive performance on a target task by using knowledge obtained when solving another related source task. Domain adaptation methods are concerned about what knowledge we can share between different tasks, how we can transfer this knowledge and when we should do it or not to avoid additional damage [4]. In this work, we study semi-supervised domain adaptation for regression tasks. In these problems, the object of interest (the mechanism that maps a set of inputs to a set of outputs) can be stated as a conditional density function. The data available for solving each learning task is assumed to be sampled from modified versions of a common multivariate distribution. Therefore, we are interested in sharing the ?common pieces? of this generative model between tasks, and use the data from each individual task to detect, learn and adapt the varying parts of the model. To do so, we must find a decomposition of multivariate distributions into simpler building blocks that may be studied separately across different domains. The theory of copulas provides such representations [18]. Copulas are statistical tools that factorize multivariate distributions into the product of its marginals and a function that captures any possible form of dependence among them. This function is referred to as the copula, and it links the marginals together into the joint multivariate model. Firstly intro1 duced by Sklar [22], copulas have been successfully used in a wide range of applications, including finance, time series or natural phenomena modeling [12]. Recently, a new family of copulas named vines have gained interest in the statistics literature [1]. These are methods that factorize multivariate densities into a product of marginal distributions and bivariate copula functions. Each of these factors corresponds to one of the building blocks that we assume either constant or varying across different learning domains. The contributions of this paper are two-fold. First, we propose a non-parametric vine copula model which can be used as a high-dimensional density estimator. Second, by making use of this method, we present a new framework to address semi-supervised domain adaptation problems, which performance is validated in a series of experiments with real-world data and competing state-of-the-art techniques. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a brief introduction to copulas, and describes a non-parametric estimator for the bivariate case. Section 3 introduces a novel nonparametric vine copula model, which is formed by the described bivariate non-parametric copulas. Section 4 describes a new framework to address semi-supervised domain adaptation problems using the proposed vine method. Finally, section 5 describes a series of experiments that validate the proposed approach on regression problems with real-world data. 2 Copulas When the components of x = (x1 , . . . , xd ) are jointly independent, their density function p(x) can be written as d Y p(xi ) . (1) p(x) = i=1 This equality does not hold when x1 , . . . , xd are not independent. Nevertheless, the differences can be corrected if we multiply the right hand side of (1) by a specific function that fully describes any possible dependence between x1 , . . . , xd . This function is called the copula of p(x) [18] and satisfies d Y p(xi ) c(P (x1 ), ..., P (xd )) . p(x) = (2) | {z } i=1 copula The copula c is the joint density of P (x1 ), . . . , P (xd ), where P (xi ) is the marginal cdf of the random variable xi . This density has uniform marginals, since P (z) ? U[0, 1] for any random variable z. That is, when we apply the transformation P (x1 ), . . . , P (xd ) to x1 , . . . , xd , we are eliminating all information about the marginal distributions. Therefore, the copula captures any distributional pattern that does not depend on their specific form, or, in other words, all the information regarding the dependencies between x1 , . . . , xd . When P (x1 ), . . . , P (xd ) are continuous, the copula c is unique [22]. However, infinitely many multivariate models share the same underlying copula function, as illustrated in Figure 1. The main advantage of copulas is that they allow us to model separately the marginal distributions and the dependencies linking them together to produce the multivariate model subject of study. Given a sample from (2), we can estimate p(x) as follows. First, we construct estimates of the marginal pdfs, p?(x1 ), . . . , p?(xd ), which also provide estimates of the corresponding marginal cdfs, P? (x1 ), . . . , P? (xd ). These cdfs estimates are used to map the data to the d-dimensional unit hypercube. The transformed data are then used to obtain an estimate c? for the copula of p(x). Finally, (2) is approximated as d Y p?(x) = p?(xi ) c?(P? (x1 ), ..., P? (xd )). (3) i=1 The estimation of marginal pdfs and cdfs can be implemented in a non-parametric manner by using unidimensional kernel density estimates. By contrast, it is common practice to assume a parametric model for the estimation of the copula function. Some examples of parametric copulas are Gaussian, Gumbel, Frank, Clayton or Student copulas [18]. Nevertheless, real-world data often exhibit complex dependencies which cannot be correctly described by these parametric copula models. This lack of flexibility of parametric copulas is illustrated in Figure 2. As an alternative, we propose 2 1.00 ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ???? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ??? ? ??? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ??? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ???? ? ?? ? ? ??? ??? ? ???? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ???? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ???? ??? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ???? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ??? ? ?? ?? ?? ??? ? ? ? ?? ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ? ??? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ??? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ???? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ????? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ??? ? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ????? ? ?? ? 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? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2.5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ???? ? ???? ?? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ??? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? 0.0 2 0.0 ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ????? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ??? ???? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? 2.5 5.0 Figure 1: Left, sample from a Gaussian copula with correlation ? = 0.8. Middle and right, two samples drawn from multivariate models with this same copula but different marginal distributions, depicted as rug plots. 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ????? ? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ?? ??? ? ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ????? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? 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? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ???? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ????? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ????? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ???? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ????? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 Figure 2: Left, sample from the copula linking variables 4 and 11 in the W IRELESS dataset. Middle, density estimate generated by a Gaussian copula model when fitted to the data. This technique is unable to capture the complex patterns present in the data. Right, copula density estimate generated by the non-parametric method described in section 2.1. to approximate the copula function in a non-parametric manner. Kernel density estimates can also be used to generate non-parametric approximations of copulas, as described in [8]. The following section reviews this method for the two-dimensional case. 2.1 Non-parametric Bivariate Copulas We now elaborate on how to non-parametrically estimate the copula of a given bivariate density p(x, y). Recall that this density can be factorized as the product of its marginals and its copula p(x, y) = p(x) p(y) c(P (x), P (y)). (4) {(xi , yi )}ni=1 Additionally, given a sample from p(x, y), we can obtain a pseudo-sample from its copula c by mapping each observation to the unit square using estimates of the marginal cdfs, namely {(ui , vi )}ni=1 := {(P? (xi ), P? (yi ))}ni=1 . (5) These are approximate observations from the uniformly distributed random variables u = P (x) and v = P (y), whose joint density is the copula function c(u, v). We could try to approximate this density function by placing Gaussian kernels on each observation ui and vi . However, the resulting density estimate would have support on R2 , while the support of c is the unit square. A solution is to perform the density estimation in a transformed space. For this, we select some continuous distribution with support on R, strictly positive density ?, cumulative distribution ? and quantile function ??1 . Let z and w be two new random variables given by z = ??1 (u) and w = ??1 (v). Then, the joint density of z and w is p(z, w) = ?(z) ?(w) c(?(z), ?(w)) . (6) The copula of this new density is identical to the copula of (4), since the performed transformations are marginal-wise. The support of (6) is now R2 ; therefore, we can now approximate it with 3 Gaussian kernels. Let zi = ??1 (ui ) and wi = ??1 (vi ). Then, n 1X p?(z, w) = N (z, w|zi , wi , ?), n i=1 (7) where N (?, ?|?1 , ?2 , ?) is a two-dimensional Gaussian density with mean (?1 , ?2 ) and covariance matrix ?. For convenience, we select ?, ? and ??1 to be the standard Gaussian pdf, cdf and quantile function, respectively. Finally, the copula density c(u, v) is approximated by combining (6) with (7): n p?(??1 (u), ??1 (v)) 1 X N (??1 (u), ??1 (v)|??1 (ui ), ??1 (vi ), ?) c?(u, v) = = . (8) ?(??1 (u))?(??1 (v)) n i=1 ?(??1 (u))?(??1 (v)) 3 Regular Vines The method described above can be generalized to the estimation of copulas of more than two random variables. However, although kernel density estimates can be successful in spaces of one or two dimensions, as the number of variables increases, this methods start to be significantly affected by the curse of dimensionality and tend to overfit to the training data. Additionally, for addressing domain adaptation problems, we are interested in factorizing these high-dimensional copulas into simpler building blocks transferrable accross learning domains. These two drawbacks can be addressed by recent methods in copula modelling called vines [1]. Vines decompose any high-dimensional copula density as a product of bivariate copula densities that can be approximated using the nonparametric model described above. These bivariate copulas (as well as the marginals) correspond to the simple building blocks that we plan to transfer from one learning domain to another. Different types of vines have been proposed in the literature. Some examples are canonical vines, D-vines or regular vines [16, 1]. In this work we focus on regular vines (R-vines) since they are the most general models. An R-vine V for a probability density p(x1 , . . . , xd ) with variable set V = {1, . . . d} is formed by a set of undirected trees T1 , . . . , Td?1 , each of them with corresponding set of nodes Vi and set of edges Ei , where Vi = Ei?1 for i ? [2, d ? 1] . Any edge e ? Ei has associated three sets C(e), D(e), N (e) ? V called the conditioned, conditioning and constraint sets of e, respectively. Initially, T1 is inferred from a complete graph with a node associated with each element of V; for any e ? T1 joining nodes Vj and Vk , C(e) = N (e) = {Vj , Vk } and D(e) = {?}. The trees T2 , ..., Td?1 are constructed so that each e ? Ei is formed by joining two edges e1 , e2 ? Ei?1 which share a common node, for i ? 2. The new edge e has conditioned, conditioning and constraint sets given by C(e) = N (e1 )?N (e2 ), D(e) = N (e1 ) ? N (e1 ), N (e) = N (e1 ) ? N (e2 ), where ? is the symmetric difference operator. Figure 3 illustrates this procedure for an R-vine with 4 variables. For any edge e(j, k) ? Ti , i = 1, . . . , d ? 1 with conditioned set C(e) = {j, k} and conditioning set D(e) let cjk|D(e) be the value of the copula density for the conditional distribution of xj and xk when conditioning on {xi : i ? D(e)}, that is, cjk|D(e) := c(Pj|D(e) , Pk|D(e) |xi : i ? D(e)), (9) where Pj|D(e) := P (xj |xi : i ? D(e)) is the conditional cdf of xj when conditioning on {xi : i ? D(e)}. Kurowicka and Cooke [16] indicate that any probability density function p(x1 , . . . , xd ) can then be factorized as d d?1 Y Y Y p(x) = p(xi ) cjk|D(e) , (10) i=1 i=1 e(j,k)?Ei where E1 , . . . , Ed?1 are the edge sets of the R-vine V for p(x1 , . . . , xd ). In particular, each of the edges in the trees from V specify a different conditional copula density in (10). For d variables, the density in (10) is formed by d(d ? 1)/2 factors. Changes in each of these factors can be detected and independently transferred accross different learning domains to improve the estimation of the target density function. The definition of cjk|D(e) in (9) requires the calculation of conditional marginal cdfs. For this, we use the following recursive identity introduced by Joe [14], that is, ? Cjk|D(e)\k , (11) Pj|D(e) = ?Pk|D(e)\k 4 Tree 1 1, 2|? 1, 1|? 2, 4|1, 3 2, 3|1 2, 2|? 1, 3|? 1, 2|? 1, 3|? 2, 4|? 3, 3|? Tree 3 Tree 2 2, 3|1 1, 4|3 1, 4|3 4, 4|? 3, 4|? 3, 4|? p1234 = p1 ? p2 ? p3 ? p4 ? c12 ? c13 ? c34 ? c23|1 ? c14|3 ? c24|13 {z } | {z } | {z } | {z } | Tree 1 Marginals Tree 2 Tree 3 Figure 3: Example of the hierarchical construction of a R-vine copula for a system of four variables. The edges selected to form each tree are highlighted in bold. Conditioned and conditioning sets for each node and edge are shown as C(e)|D(e). Later, each edge in bold will correspond to a different bivariate copula function. which holds for any k ? D(e), where D(e) \ k = {i : i ? D(e) ? i 6= k} and Cjk|D(e)\k is the cdf of cjk|D(e)\k . One major advantage of vines is that they can model high-dimensional data by estimating density functions of only one or two random variables. For this reason, these techniques are significantly less affected by the curse of dimensionality than regular density estimators based on kernels, as we show in Section 5. So far Vines have been generally constructed using parametric models for the estimation of bivariate copulas. In the following, we describe a novel method for the construction of non-parametric regular vines. 3.1 Non-parametric Regular Vines In this section, we introduce a vine distribution in which all participant bivariate copulas can be estimated in a non-parametric manner. Todo so, we model each of the copulas in (10) using the nonparametric method described in Section 2.1. Let {(ui , vi )}ni=1 be a sample from the copula density c(u, v). The basic operation needed for the implementation of the proposed method is the evaluation of the conditional cdf P (u|v) using the recursive equation (11). Define w = ??1 (v), zi = ??1 (ui ) and wi = ??1 (vi ). Combining (8) and (11) we obtain Z u P? (u|v) = c?(x, v) dx 0 n u N (??1 (x), w|zi , wi , ?) dx ?(??1 (x)) 0 " # n ??1 (u) ? ?zi |wi 1 X 2 = N (w|wi , ?w ) ? , n?(w) i=1 ?z2i |wi = 1 X n?(w) i=1 Z where N (?|?, ? 2 ) denotes a Gaussian density with mean ? and variance ? 2 , ? = kernel bandwidth matrix, ?zi |wi = zi + ?z ?w ?(w (12)  ?z2 ? ? 2 ?w  the ? wi ) and ?z2i |wi = ?z2 (1 ? ? 2 ). Equation (12) can be used to approximate any conditional cdf Pj|D(e) . For this, we use the fact that P (xj |xi : i ? D(e)) = P (uj |ui : i ? D(e)), where ui = P (xi ), for i = 1, . . . , d, and recursively apply rule (11) using equation (12) to compute P? (uj |ui : i ? D(e)). To complete the inference recipe for the non-parametric regular vine, we must specify how to construct the hierarchy of trees T1 , . . . , Td?1 . In other words, we must define a procedure to select the edges (bivariate copulas) that will form each tree. We have a total of d(d ? 1)/2 bivariate copulas 5 which should be distributed among the different trees. Ideally, we would like to include in the first trees of the hierarchy the copulas with strongest dependence level. This will allow us to prune the model by assuming independence in the last k < d trees, since the density function for the independent copula is constant and equal to 1. To construct the trees T1 , . . . , Td?1 , we assign a weight to each edge e(j, k) (copula) according to the level of dependence between the random variables xj and xk . A common practice is to fix this weight to the empirical estimate of Kendall?s? ? for the two random variables under consideration[1]1 . Given these weights for each edge, we propose to solve the edge selection problem by obtaining d ? 1 maximum spanning trees. Prim?s Algorithm [20] can be used to solve this problem efficiently. 4 Domain Adaptation with Regular Vines In this section we describe how regular vines can be used to address domain adaptation problems in the non-linear regression setting with continuous data. The proposed approach could be easily extended to other problems such as density estimation or classification. In regression problems, we are interested in inferring the mapping mechanism or conditional distribution with density p(y|x) that maps one feature vector x = (x1 , . . . , xd ) ? Rd into a target scalar value y ? R. Rephrased into the copula framework, this conditional density can be expressed as p(y|x) ? p(y) d Y Y cjk|D(e) (13) i=1 e(j,k)?Ei where E1 , . . . , Ed are the edge sets of an R-vine for p(x, y). Note that the normalization of the right part of (13) is relatively easy since y is scalar. In the classic domain adaptation setup we usually have large amounts of data for solving a source task characterized by the density function ps (x, y). However, only a partial or reduced sample is available for solving a target task with density pt (x, y). Given the data available for both tasks, our objective is to build a good estimate for the conditional density pt (y|x). To address this domain adaptation problem, we assume that pt is a modified version of ps . In particular, we assume that pt is obtained in two steps from ps . First, ps is expressed using an R-vine representation as in (10) and second, some of the factors included in that representation (marginal distributions or pairwise copulas) are modified to derive pt . All we need to address the adaptation across domains is to reconstruct the R-vine representation of ps using data from the source task, and then identify which of the factors have been modified to produce pt . These factors are corrected using data from the target task. In the following, we describe how to identify and correct these modified factors. Marginal distributions can change between source and target tasks (also known as covariate shift). In this case, Ps (xi ) 6= Pt (xi ), for i = 1, . . . , d, or Ps (y) 6= Pt (y), and we need to re-generate the estimates of the affected marginals using data from the target task. Additionally, some of the bivariate copulas cjk|D(e) may differ from source to target tasks. In this case, we also re-estimate the affected copulas using data from the target task. Simultaneous changes in both copulas and marginals can occur. However, there is no limitation in updating each of the modified components separately. Finally, if some of the factors remain constant across domains, we can use the available data from the target task to improve the estimates obtained using only the data from the source task. Note that we are addressing a more general problem than covariate shift. Besides identifying and correcting changes in marginal distributions, we also consider changes in any possible form of dependence (conditional distributions) between random variables. For the implementation of the strategy mentioned above, we need to identify when two samples come from the same distribution or not. For this, we propose to use the non-parametric two-sample test Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) [10]. MMD will return low p-values when two samples are unlikely to have been drawn from the same distribution. Specifically, given samples from two distributions P and Q, MMD will determine P 6= Q if the distance between the embeddings of the empirical distributions for these two samples in a RKHS is significantly large. 1 We have tried more general dependence measures such as the HSIC (Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion) without observing gains that justify the increase of computational costs. 6 Table 1: Average TLL obtained by NPRV, GRV and KDE on six different UCI datasets. Dataset No. of variables KDE GRV NPRV Auto 8 1.32 ? 0.06 1.84 ? 0.08 2.07 ? 0.07 Cloud 10 3.25 ? 0.10 5.00 ? 0.12 4.54 ? 0.13 Housing 14 1.96 ? 0.17 1.68 ? 0.11 3.18 ? 0.17 Magic 11 1.13 ? 0.11 2.09 ? 0.08 2.72 ? 0.17 Page-Blocks 10 1.90 ? 0.13 4.69 ? 0.20 5.64 ? 0.14 Wireless 11 0.98 ? 0.06 0.36 ? 0.08 2.17 ? 0.13 Semi-supervised and unsupervised domain adaptation: The proposed approach can be easily extended to take advantage of additional unlabeled data to improve the estimation of our model. Specifically, extra unlabeled target task data can be used to refine the factors in the R-Vine decomposition of pt which do not depend on y. This is still valid even in the limiting case of not having access to labeled data from the target task at training time (unsupervised domain adaptation). 5 Experiments To validate the proposed method, we run two series of experiments using real world data. The first series illustrates the accuracy of the density estimates generated by the proposed non-parametric vine method. The second series validates the effectiveness of the proposed framework for domain adaptation problems in the non-linear regression setting. In all experiments, kernel bandwidth matrices are selected using Silverman?s rule-of-thumb [21]. For comparative purposes, we include the results of different state-of-the-art domain adaptation methods whose parameters are selected by a 10-fold cross validation process on the training data. Approximations: A complete R-Vine requires the use of conditional copula functions, which are challenging to learn. A common approximation is to ignore any dependence between the copula functional form and its set of conditioning variables. Note that the copula functions arguments remain to be conditioned cdfs. Moreover, to avoid excesive computational costs, we consider only the first tree (d ? 1 copulas) of the R-Vine, which is the one containing the most amount of dependence between the distribution variables. Increasing the number of considered trees did not lead to significant performance improvements. 5.1 Accuracy of Non-parametric Regular Vines for Density Estimation The density estimates generated by the new non-parametric R-vine method (NPRV) are evaluated on data from six normalized UCI datasets [9]. We compare against a standard density estimator based on Gaussian kernels (KDE), and a parametric vine method based on bivariate Gaussian copulas (GRV). From each dataset, we extract 50 random samples of size 1000. Training is performed using 30% of each random sample. Average test log-likelihoods and corresponding standard deviations on the remaining 70% of the random sample are summarized in Table 1 for each technique. In these experiments, NPRV obtains the highest average test log-likelihood in all cases except one, where it is outperformed by GRV. KDE shows the worst performance, due to its direct exposure to the curse of dimensionality. 5.2 Comparison with other Domain Adaptation Methods NPRV is analyzed in a series of experiments for domain adaptation on the non-linear regression setting with real-world data. Detailed descriptions of the 6 UCI selected datasets and their domains are available in the supplementary material. The proposed technique is compared with different benchmark methods. The first two, GP-S OURCE and GP-A LL, are considered baselines. They are two gaussian process (GP) methods, the first one trained only with data from the source task, and the second one trained with the normalized union of data from both source and target problems. The other five methods are considered state-of-the-art domain adaptation techniques. DAUME [7] performs a feature augmentation such that the kernel function evaluated at two points from the same 7 Table 2: Average NMSE and standard deviation for all algorithms and UCI datasets. Dataset No. of variables GP-Source GP-All Daume SSL-Daume ATGP KMM KuLSIF NPRV UNPRV Av. Ch. Mar. Av. Ch. Cop. Wine 12 0.86 ? 0.02 0.83 ? 0.03 0.97 ? 0.03 0.82 ? 0.05 0.86 ? 0.08 1.03 ? 0.01 0.91 ? 0.08 0.73 ? 0.07 0.76 ? 0.06 10 5 Sarcos 21 1.80 ? 0.04 1.69 ? 0.04 0.88 ? 0.02 0.74 ? 0.08 0.79 ? 0.07 1.00 ? 0.00 1.67 ? 0.06 0.61 ? 0.10 0.62 ? 0.13 1 8 Rocks-Mines 60 0.90 ? 0.01 1.10 ? 0.08 0.72 ? 0.09 0.59 ? 0.07 0.56 ? 0.10 1.00 ? 0.00 0.65 ? 0.10 0.72 ? 0.13 0.72 ? 0.15 38 49 Hill-Valleys 100 1.00 ? 0.00 0.87 ? 0.06 0.99 ? 0.03 0.82 ? 0.07 0.15 ? 0.07 1.00 ? 0.00 0.80 ? 0.11 0.15 ? 0.07 0.19 ? 0.09 100 34 Axis-Slice 386 1.52 ? 0.02 1.27 ? 0.07 0.95 ? 0.02 0.65 ? 0.04 1.00 ? 0.01 1.00 ? 0.00 0.98 ? 0.07 0.38 ? 0.07 0.37 ? 0.07 226 155 Isolet 617 1.59 ? 0.02 1.58 ? 0.02 0.99 ? 0.00 0.64 ? 0.02 1.00 ? 0.00 1.00 ? 0.00 0.58 ? 0.02 0.46 ? 0.09 0.42 ? 0.04 89 474 domain is twice larger than when these two points come from different domains. SSL-DAUME [6] is a SSL extension of DAUME which takes into account unlabeled data from the target domain. ATGP [4] models the source and target task data using a single GP, but learns additional kernel parameters to correlate input vectors between domains. This method outperforms others like the one proposed by Bonilla et al. [3]. KMM [11] minimizes the distance of marginal distributions in source and target domains by matching their means when mapped into an universal RKHS. Finally, K U LSIF [15] operates in a similar way as KMM. Besides NPRV, we also include in the experiments its fully unsupervised variant, UNPRV, which ignores any labeled data from the target task. For training, we randomly sample 1000 data points for both source and target tasks, where all the data in the source task and 5% of the data in the target task are labeled. The test set contains 1000 points from the target task. Table 2 summarizes the average test normalized mean square error (NMSE) and corresponding standard deviation for each method in each dataset across 30 random repetitions of the experiment. The proposed methods obtain the best results in 5 out of 6 cases. Notably, UNPRV (Unsupervised NPRV), which ignores labeled data from the target task, also outperforms the other benchmark methods in most cases. Finally, the two bottom rows in Table 2 show the average number of marginals and bivariate copulas which are updated in each dataset during the execution of NPRV, respectively. Computational Costs: Running NPRV requires to fill in a weight matrix of size O(d2 ) with the empirical estimates of Kendall?s ? for any two random variables. The computation of each of these estimates can be done efficiently with cost O(n log n), where n is the number of available data points. Therefore, the final training cost of NPRV is O(d2 n log n). In practice, we obtain competitive training times. Training NPRV for the Isolet dataset took about 3 minutes on a regular laptop computer. Predictions made by a single level NPRV have cost O(nd). Parametric copulas may be used to reduce the computational demands. 6 Conclusions We have proposed a novel non-parametric domain adaptation strategy based on copulas. The new approach works by decomposing any multivariate density into a product of marginal densities and bivariate copula functions. Changes in these factors across different domains can be detected using two sample tests, and transferred across domains in order to adapt the target task density model. A novel non-parametric vine method has been introduced for the practical implementation of this method. This technique leads to better density estimates than standard parametric vines or KDE, and is also able to outperform a large number of alternative domain adaptation methods in a collection of regression problems with real-world data. 8 References [1] K. Aas, C. Czado, A. Frigessi, and H. Bakken. Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 44(2):182?198, 2006. [2] S. Ben-David, J. Blitzer, K. Crammer, A. Kulesza, F. Pereira, and J. Wortman. A theory of learning from different domains. Machine Learning, 79(1):151?175, 2010. [3] E. Bonilla, K. Chai, and C. Williams. Multi-task gaussian process prediction. NIPS, 2008. [4] B. Cao, S. Jialin, Y. Zhang, D. Yeung, and Q. Yang. Adaptive transfer learning. AAAI, 2010. [5] C. Cortes and M. Mohri. Domain adaptation in regression. In Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on Algorithmic learning theory, ALT?11, pages 308?323, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2011. Springer-Verlag. [6] H. Daum?e, III, Abhishek Kumar, and Avishek Saha. Frustratingly easy semi-supervised domain adaptation. Proceedings of the 2010 Workshop on Domain Adaptation for Natural Language Processing, pages 53?59, 2010. [7] H. Daum?e III. Frustratingly easy domain adaptation. Association of Computational Linguistics, pages 256?263, 2007. [8] J. Fermanian and O. Scaillet. The estimation of copulas: Theory and practice. Copulas: From Theory to Application in Finance, pages 35?60, 2007. [9] A. Frank and A. Asuncion. UCI machine learning repository, 2010. [10] A. Gretton, K. Borgwardt, M. Rasch, B. Scholkopf, and A. Smola. A kernel method for the two-sample-problem. NIPS, pages 513?520, 2007. [11] J. Huang, A. Smola, A. Gretton, K. Borgwardt, and B. Schoelkopf. Correcting sample selection bias by unlabeled data. NIPS, pages 601?608, 2007. [12] P. Jaworski, F. Durante, W.K. H?ardle, and T. Rychlik. Copula Theory and Its Applications. Lecture Notes in Statistics. Springer, 2010. [13] S. Jialin-Pan and Q. Yang. A survey on transfer learning. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 22(10):1345?1359, 2010. [14] H. Joe. Families of m-variate distributions with given margins and m(m ? 1)/2 bivariate dependence parameters. Distributions with Fixed Marginals and Related Topics, 1996. [15] T. Kanamori, T. Suzuki, and M. Sugiyama. Statistical analysis of kernel-based least-squares density-ratio estimation. Machine Learning, 86(3):335?367, 2012. [16] D. Kurowicka and R. Cooke. Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, 1st edition, 2006. [17] Y. Mansour, M. Mohri, and A. Rostamizadeh. Domain adaptation: Learning bounds and algorithms. In COLT, 2009. [18] R. Nelsen. An Introduction to Copulas. Springer Series in Statistics, 2nd edition, 2006. [19] S. Nitschke, E. Kidd, and L. Serratrice. First language transfer and long-term structural priming in comprehension. Language and Cognitive Processes, 5(1):94?114, 2010. [20] R. C. Prim. Shortest connection networks and some generalizations. Bell System Technology Journal, 36:1389?1401, 1957. [21] B.W. Silverman. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Chapman and Hall, 1986. [22] A. Sklar. Fonctions de repartition a` n dimension set leurs marges. Publ. Inst. Statis. Univ. Paris, 8(1):229?231, 1959. 9
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Cost-Sensitive Exploration in Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Dongho Kim Department of Engineering University of Cambridge, UK Kee-Eung Kim Dept of Computer Science KAIST, Korea Pascal Poupart School of Computer Science University of Waterloo, Canada [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we consider Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) where actions incur costs in addition to rewards, and thus exploration has to be constrained in terms of the expected total cost while learning to maximize the expected longterm total reward. In order to formalize cost-sensitive exploration, we use the constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) as the model of the environment, in which we can naturally encode exploration requirements using the cost function. We extend BEETLE, a model-based BRL method, for learning in the environment with cost constraints. We demonstrate the cost-sensitive exploration behaviour in a number of simulated problems. 1 Introduction In reinforcement learning (RL), the agent interacts with a (partially) unknown environment, classically assumed to be a Markov decision process (MDP), with the goal of maximizing its expected long-term total reward. The agent faces the exploration-exploitation dilemma: the agent must select actions that exploit its current knowledge about the environment to maximize reward, but it also needs to select actions that explore for more information so that it can act better. Bayesian RL (BRL) [1, 2, 3, 4] provides a principled framework to the exploration-exploitation dilemma. However, exploratory actions may have serious consequences. For example, a robot exploring in an unfamiliar terrain may reach a dangerous location and sustain heavy damage, or wander off from the recharging station to the point where a costly rescue mission is required. In a less mission critical scenario, a route recommendation system that learns actual travel times should be aware of toll fees associated with different routes. Therefore, the agent needs to carefully (if not completely) avoid critical situations while exploring to gain more information. The constrained MDP (CMDP) extends the standard MDP to account for limited resources or multiple objectives [5]. The CMDP assumes that executing actions incur costs and rewards that should be optimized separately. Assuming the expected total reward and cost criterion, the goal is to find an optimal policy that maximizes the expected total reward while bounding the expected total cost. Since we can naturally encode undesirable behaviors into the cost function, we formulate the costsensitive exploration problem as RL in the environment modeled as a CMDP. Note that we can employ other criteria for the cost constraint in CMDPs. We can make the actual total cost below the cost bound with probability one using the sample-path cost constraints [6, 7], or with probability 1 ? ? using the percentile cost constraints [8]. In this paper, we restrict ourselves to the expected total cost constraint mainly due to the computational efficiency in solving the constrained optimization problem. Extending our work to other cost criteria is left as a future work. The main argument we make is that the CMDP provides a natural framework for representing various approaches to constrained exploration, such as safe exploration [9, 10]. 1 In order to perform cost-sensitive exploration in the Bayesian RL (BRL) setting, we cast the problem as a constrained partially observable MDP (CPOMDP) [11, 12] planning problem. Specifically, we take a model-based BRL approach and extend BEETLE [4] to solve the CPOMDP which models BRL with cost constraints. 2 Background In this section, we review the background for cost-sensitive exploration in BRL. As we explained in the previous section, we assume that the environment is modeled as a CMDP, and formulate model-based BRL as a CPOMDP. We briefly review the CMDP and CPOMDP before summarizing BEETLE, a model-based BRL for environments without cost constraints. 2.1 Constrained MDPs (CMDPs) and Constrained POMDPs (CPOMDPs) The standard (infinite-horizon discounted return) MDP is defined by tuple hS, A, T, R, ?, b0 i where: S is the set of states s; A is the set of actions a; T (s, a, s? ) is the transition function which denotes the probability Pr(s? |s, a) of changing to state s? from s by executing action a; R(s, a) ? ? is the reward function which denotes the immediate reward of executing action a in state s; ? ? [0, 1) is the discount factor; b0 (s) is the initial state probability for state s. b0 is optional, since an optimal policy ? ? : S ? A that maps from states to actions can be shown not to be dependent on b0 . The constrained MDP (CMDP) is defined by tuple hS, A, T, R, C, c?, ?, b0 i with the following additional components: C(s, a) ? ? is the cost function which denotes the immediate cost incurred by executing action a in state s; c? is the bound on expected total discounted cost. An optimal policy of a CMDP maximizes the expected total discounted reward over the infinite horizon, while not incurring more than c? total discounted cost in the expectation. We can formalize this constrained optimization problem as: max? V ? s.t. C ? ? c?. P? where P V ? = E?,b0 [ t=0 ? t R(st , at )] is the expected total discounted reward, and C ? = ? E?,b0 [ t=0 ? t C(st , at )] is the expected total discounted cost. We will also use C ? (s) to denote the expected total cost starting from the state s. It has been shown that an optimal policy for CMDP is generally a randomized stationary policy [5]. Hence, we define a policy ? as a mapping of states to probability distributions over actions, where ?(s, a) denotes the probability that an agent will execute action a in state s. We can find an optimal policy by solving the following linear program (LP): X max R(s, a)x(s, a) (1) x s.t. s,a X a X x(s? , a) ? ? X x(s, a)T (s, a, s? ) = b0 (s? ) ?s? s,a C(s, a)x(s, a) ? c? and x(s, a) ? 0 ?s, a s,a The variables x?s are related to the occupancy measure of optimal policy, where x(s, a) is the expected discounted number of times executing a at stateP s. If the above LP yields a feasible solution, optimal policy can be obtained by ?(s, a) = x(s, a)/ a? x(s, a? ). Note that due to the introduction of cost constraints, the resulting optimal policy is contingent on the initial state distribution b0 , in contrast to the standard MDP of which an optimal policy can be independent of the initial state distribution. Note also that the above LP may be infeasible if there is no policy that can satisfy the cost constraint. The constrained POMDP (CPOMDP) extends the standard POMDP in a similar manner. The standard POMDP is defined by tuple hS, A, Z, T, O, R, ?, b0 i with the following additional components: the set Z of observations z, and the observation probability O(s? , a, z) representing the probability Pr(z|s? , a) of observing z when executing action a and changing to state s? . The states in the POMDP are hidden to the agent, and it has to act based on the observations instead. The CPOMDP 2 Algorithm 1: Point-based backup of ?-vector pairs with admissible cost input : (b, d) with belief state b and admissible cost d; set ? of ?-vector pairs output: set ??(b,d) of ?-vector pairs (contains at most 2 pairs for a single cost function) // regress foreach a ? A do a,? a,? ?R = R(?, a), ?C = C(?, a) foreach (?i,R ,P ?i,C ) ? ?, z ? Z do a,z ?i,R (s) = s? T (s, a, s? )O(s? , a, z)?i,R (s? ) P a,z ?i,C (s) = s? T (s, a, s? )O(s? , a, z)?i,C (s? ) // backup for each action foreach a ? A do Solve the following LP to obtain best randomized action at the next time step: P a,z b? iw ?iz ?i,C ? dz ?z P X ?iz = 1 ?z iw a,z max b ? w ?iz ?i,R subject to w ?iz ? 0 ?i, z w ?iz ,dz i,z P 1 z dz = ? (d ? C(b, a)) P a,? a,z a ?R = ?R + ? i,z w ?iz ?i,R P a,? a,z a ?C = ?C + ? i,z w ?iz ?i,C // find the best randomized action for the current time step Solve the following LP with : max b ? wa X a wa ?R subject to a P a b ? a wa ?C ?d P w = 1 a a wa ? 0 ?a a a return ??(b,d) = {(?R , ?C )|wa > 0} is defined by adding the cost function C and the cost bound c? into the definition as in the CMDP. Although the CPOMDP is intractable to solve as is the case with the POMDP, there exists an efficient point-based algorithm [12]. The Bellman backup operator for CPOMDP generates pairs of ?-vectors (?R , ?C ), each vector corresponding to the expected total reward and cost, respectively. In order to facilitate defining the Bellman backup operator at a belief state, we augment the belief state with a scalar quantity called admissible cost [13], which represents the expected total cost that can be additionally incurred for the future time steps without violating the cost constraint. Suppose that, at time step t, the agent Pt ? has so far incurred a total cost of Wt , i.e., Wt = ? =0 ? C(s? , a? ). The admissible cost at 1 time step t + 1 is defined as dt = ? t+1 (? c ? Wt ). It can be computed recursively by the equation 1 dt+1 = ? (dt ? C(st , at )), which can be derived from Wt = Wt?1 + ?C(st , at ), and d0 = c?. Given a pair of belief state and admissible cost (b, d) and the set of ?-vector pairs ? = {(?i,R , ?i,C )}, the best (randomized) action is obtained by solving the following LP: P b ? i wi ?i,C ? d X P max b ? wi ?i,R subject to i wi = 1 wi i wi ? 0 ?i where wi corresponds to the probability of choosing the action associated with the pair (?i,R , ?i,C ). The point-based backup for CPOMDP leveraging the above LP formulation is shown in Algorithm 1.1 1 Note that this algorithm is an improvement over the heuristic distribution of the admissible cost to each observation by ratio Pr(z|b, a) in [12]. Instead, we optimize the cost distribution by solving an LP. 3 2.2 BEETLE BEETLE [4] is a model-based BRL algorithm, based on the idea that BRL can be formulated as a POMDP planning problem. Assuming that the environment is modeled as a discrete-state MDP P = hS, A, T, R, ?i where the transition function T is unknown, we treat each transi? tion probability T (s, a, s? ) as an unknown parameter ?as,s and formulate BRL as a hyperstate ? POMDP hSP , AP , ZP , TP , OP , RP , ?, b0 i where SP = S ? {?as,s }, AP = A, ZP = S, ? TP (s, ?, a, s? , ?? ) = ?as,s ?? (?? ), OP (s? , ?? , a, z) = ?s? (z), and RP (s, ?, a) = R(s, a). In summary, the hyperstate POMDP augments the original state space with the set of unknown parameters ? {?as,s }, since the agent has to take actions without exact information on the unknown parameters. The belief state b in the hyperstate POMDP yields the posterior of ?. Specifically, assuming a product of Dirichlets for the belief state such that Y b(?) = Dir(?as,? ; ns,? a ) s,a ?as,? is the parameter vector of multinomial distribution defining the transition function for where state s and action a, and ns,? a is the hyperparameter vector of the corresponding Dirichlet distri? can be viewed as pseudocounts, i.e., the number of times bution. Since the hyperparameter ns,s a ? observing transition (s, a, s ), the updated belief after observing transition (? s, a ?, s?? ) is also a product of Dirichlets: Y ? ? bas??,?s (?) = Dir(?as,? ; ns,? a,? s? (s, a, s )) a + ?s?,? s,a Hence, belief states in the hyperstate POMDP can be represented by |S|2 |A| variables one for each hyperparameter, and the belief update is efficiently performed by incrementing the hyperparmeter corresponding to the observed transition. Solving the hyperstate POMDP is performed by dynamic programming with the Bellman backup operator [2]. Specifically, the value function is represented as a set ? of ?-functions for each state ? Rs, so that the value of optimal policy is obtained by Vs (b) = max??? ?s (b) where ?s (b) = b(?)?s (?)d?. Using the fact that ?-functions are multivariate polynomials of ?, we can obtain ? an exact solution to the Bellman backup. There are two computational challenges with the hyperstate POMDP approach. First, being a POMDP, the Bellman backup has to be performed on all possible belief states in the probability simplex. BEETLE adopts Perseus [14], performing randomized point-based backups confined to the set of sampled (s, b) pairs by simulating a default or random policy, and reducing the total number of value backups by improving the value of many belief points through a single backup. Second, the number of monomial terms in the ?-function increases exponentially with the number of backups. BEETLE chooses a fixed set of basis functions and projects the ?-function onto a linear combination of these basis functions. The set of basis functions is chosen to be the set of monomials extracted from the sampled belief states. 3 Constrained BEETLE (CBEETLE) We take an approach similar to BEETLE for cost-sensitive exploration in BRL. Specifically, we formulate cost-sensitive BRL as a hyperstate CPOMDP hSP , AP , ZP , TP , OP , RP , CP , c?, ?, b0 i where ? ? SP = S ? {?as,s }, AP = A, ZP = S, TP (s, ?, a, s? , ?? ) = ?as,s ?? (?? ), OP (s? , ?? , a, z) = ?s? (z), RP (s, ?, a) = R(s, a), and CP (s, ?, a) = C(s, a). Note that using the cost function C and cost bound c? to encode the constraints on the exploration behaviour allows us to enjoy the same flexibility as using the reward function to define the task objective in the standard MDP and POMDP. Although, for the sake of exposition, we use a single cost function and discount factor in our definition of CMDP and CPOMDP, we can generalize the model to have multiple cost functions that capture different aspects of exploration behaviour that cannot be put together on the same scale, and different discount factors for rewards and costs. In addition, we can even completely eliminate the possibility of executing action a in state s by setting the discount factor to 1 for the cost constraint and impose a sufficiently low cost bound c? < C(s, a). 4 Algorithm 2: Point-based backup of ?-function pairs for the hyperstate CPOMDP2 input : (s, n, d) with state s, Dirichlet hyperparameter n representing belief state b, and admissible cost d; set ?s of ?-function pairs for each state s output: set ??(s,n,d) of ?-function pairs (contains at most 2 pairs for a single cost function) // regress foreach a ? A do a,? a,? ?R = R(s, a), ?C = C(s, a) // constant functions ? foreach s ? S, (?i,R , ?i,C ) ? ?s? do ? ? ? a,s? a,s? = ?as,s ?i,C // multiplied by variable ?as,s = ?as,s ?i,R , ?i,C ?i,R // backup for each action foreach a ? A do Solve the following LP to obtain best randomized action at the next time step: P a,s? (b) ? ds? ?s? ?is? ?i,C iw P X ?is? = 1 ?s? a,s? iw (b) subject to max w ?is? ?i,R w ?is? ,dz w ?is? ? 0 ?i, s? i,s? P 1 z ds? = ? (d ? C(s, a)) a,? a ?R = ?R +? P ? i,s? a,? a,s a , ?C = ?C w ?is? ?i,R +? P i,s? ? a,s w ?is? ?i,C // find the best randomized action for the current time step Solve the following LP with : P a a wa ?C (b) ? d X P a wa ?R (b) subject to max a wa = 1 wa a wa ? 0 ?a a a return ??(s,n,d) = {(?R , ?C )|wa > 0} We call our algorithm CBEETLE, which solves the hyperstate CPOMDP planning problem. As in BEETLE, ?-vectors for the expected total reward and cost are represented as ?-functions in terms of unknown parameters. The point-based backup operator in Algorithm 1 naturally extends to ?-functions without significant increase in the computation complexity: the size of LP does not increase even though the belief states represent probability distributions over unknown parameters. Algorithm 2 shows the point-based backup of ?-functions in the hyperstate CPOMDP. In addition, if we choose a fixed set of basis functions for representing ?-functions, we can pre-compute the ? and C) ? in the same way as BEETLE. This technique is used in the projections of ?-functions (T?, R, point-based backup, although not explicitly described in the pseudocode due to the page limit. We also implemented the randomized point-based backup to further improve the performance. The key step in the randomized value update is to check whether a newly generated ?-function pairs ? = {(?i,R , ?i,C )} from a point-based backup yields improved value at some other sampled belief state (s, n, d). We can obtain the value of ? at the belief state by solving the following LP: P wi ?i,C (b) ? d X Pi wi ?i,R (b) subject to max (2) i wi = 1 wi i wi ? 0 ?i If we can find an improved value, we skip the point-based backup at (s, n, d) in the current iteration. Algorithm 3 shows the randomized point-based value update. In summary, the point-based value iteration algorithm for CPOMDP and BEETLE readily provide all the essential computational tools to implement the hyperstate CPOMDP planning for the costsensitive BRL. 2 The ?-functions in the pseudocode are functions of ? and ?(b) is defined to be in Sec. 2.2. 5 R ? b(?)?(?)d? as explained Algorithm 3: Randomized point-based value update for the hyperstate CPOMDP input : set B of sampled belief points, and set ?s of ?-function pairs for each state s output: set ??s of ?-function pairs (updated value function) // initialize ? = B // belief points needed to be improved B foreach s ? S do ??s = ? // randomized backup ? 6= ? do while B ? ?B ? Sample ?b = (? s, n ? , d) ? Obtain ??b by point-based backup at ?b with {?s |?s ? S} (Algorithm 2) ??s? = ??s? ? ???b foreach b ? B do Calculate V ? (b) by solving the LP Eqn. 2 with ???b ? = {b ? B : V ? (b) < V (b)} B return {??s |?s ? S} (a) (b) Figure 1: (a) 5-state chain: each edge is labeled with action, reward, and cost associated with the transition. (b) 6 ? 7 maze: a 6 ? 7 grid including the start location with recharging station (S), goal location (G), and 3 flags to capture. 4 Experiments We used the constrained versions of two standard BRL problems to demonstrate the cost-sensitive exploration. The first one is the 5-state chain [15, 16, 4], and the second one is the 6 ? 7 maze [16]. 4.1 Description of Problems The 5-state chain problem is shown in Figure 1a, where the agent has two actions 1 and 2. The agent receives a large reward of 10 by executing action 1 in state 5, or a small reward of 2 by executing action 2 in any state. With probability 0.2, the agent slips and makes the transition corresponding to the other action. We defined the constrained version of the problem by assigning a cost of 1 for action 1 in every state, thus making the consecutive execution of action 1 potentially violate the cost constraint. The 6 ? 7 maze problem is shown in Figure 1b, where the white cells are navigatable locations and gray cells are walls that block navigation. There are 5 actions available to the agent: move left, right, up, down, or stay. Every ?move? action (except for the stay action) can fail with probability 0.1, resulting in a slip to two nearby cells that are perpendicular to the intended direction. If the agent bumps into a wall, the action will have no effect. The goal of this problem is to capture as many flags as possible and reach the goal location. Upon reaching the goal, the agent obtains a reward equal to the number of flags captured, and the agent gets warped back to the start location. Since there are 33 reachable locations in the maze and 8 possible combinations for the status of captured flags, there are a total of 264 states. We defined the constrained version of the problem by assuming that the agent is equipped with a battery and every action consumes energy except the stay action at 6 recharging station. We modeled the power consumption by assigning a cost of 0 for executing the stay action at the recharging station, and a cost of 1 otherwise. Thus, the battery recharging is done by executing stay action at the recharging station, as the admissible cost increases by factor 1/?.3 4.2 Results Table 1 summarizes the experimental results for the constrained chain and maze problems. In the chain problem, we used two structural prior models, ?tied? and ?semi?, among three priors experimented in [4]. Both chain-tied and chain-semi assume that the transition dynamics are known to the agent except for the slip probabilities. In chain-tied, the slip probability is assumed to be independent of state and action, thus there is only one unknown parameter in transition dynamics. In chain-semi, the slip probability is assumed to be action dependent, thus there are two unknown parameters since there are two actions. We used uninformative Dirichlet priors in both settings. We excluded experimenting with the ?full? prior model (completely unknown transition dynamics) since even BEETLE was not able to learn a near-optimal policy as reported in [4]. We report the average discounted total reward and cost as well as their 95% confidence intervals for the first 1000 time steps using 200 simulated trials. We performed 60 Bellman iterations on 500 belief states, and used the first 50 belief states for choosing the set of basis functions. The discount factor was set to 0.99. When c?=100, which is the maximum expected total cost that can be incurred by any policy, CBEETLE found policies that are as good as the policy found by BEETLE since the cost constraint has no effect. As we impose tighter cost constraints by c?=75, 50, and 25, the policies start to trade off the rewards in order to meet the cost constraint. Note also that, although we use approximations in the various stages of the algorithm, c? is within the confidence intervals of the average total cost, meaning that the cost constraint is either met or violated by statistically insignificant amounts. Since chainsemi has more unknown parameters than chain-tied, it is natural that the performance of CBEETLE policy is slighly degraded in chain-semi. Note also that as we impose tighter cost constraints, the running times generally increase. This is because the cost constraint in the LP tends to become active at more belief states, generating two ?-function pairs instead of a single ?-function pair when the cost constaint in the LP is not active. The results for the maze problem were calculated for the first 2000 time steps using 100 simulated trials. We performed 30 Bellman iterations on 2000 belief states, and used 50 basis functions. Due to the computational requirement for solving the large hyperstate CPOMDP, we only experimented with the ?tied? prior model which assumes that the slip probability is shared by every state and action. Running CBEETLE with c? = 1/(1 ? 0.95) = 20 is equivalent to running BEETLE without cost constraints, as verified in the table. We further analyzed the cost-sensitive exploration behaviour in the maze problem. Figure 2 compares the policy behaviors of BEETLE and CBEETLE(? c=18) in the maze problem. The BEETLE policy generally captures the top flag first (Figure 2a), then navigates straight to the goal (Figure 2b) or captures the right flag and navigates to the goal (Figure 2c). If it captures the right flag first, it then navigates to the goal (Figure 2d) or captures the top flag and navigates to the goal (Figure 2e). We suspect that the reason the third flag on the left is not captured is due to the relatively low discount rate, hence ignored due to numerical approximations. The CBEETLE policy shows a similar capture behaviour, but it stays at the recharging station for a number of time steps between the first and second flag captures, which can be confirmed by the high state visitation frequency for the cell S in Figures 2g and 2i. This is because the policy cannot navigate to the other flag position and move to the goal without recharging the battery in between. The agent also frequently visits the recharging station before the first flag capture (Figure 2f) because it actively explores for the first flag with a high uncertainty in the dynamics. 3 It may seem odd that the battery recharges at an exponential rate. We can set ? = 1 and make the cost function assign, e.g., a cost of -1 for recharging and 1 for consuming, but our implementation currently assumes same discount factor for the rewards and costs. Implementation for different discount factors is left as a future work, but note that we can still obtain meaningful results with ? sufficiently close to 1. 7 Table 1: Experimental results for the chain and maze problems. problem chain-tied |S| = 5 |A| = 2 algorithm c? BEETLE ? 100 75 50 25 ? 100 75 50 25 ? 20 18 CBEETLE BEETLE chain-semi |S| = 5 |A| = 2 maze-tied |S| = 264 |A| = 5 CBEETLE BEETLE CBEETLE utopic value 354.77 354.77 325.75 296.73 238.95 354.77 354.77 325.75 296.73 238.95 1.03 1.03 0.97 avg discounted total reward 351.11?8.42 354.68?8.57 287.70?8.17 264.97?7.06 212.19?4.98 351.11?8.42 354.68?8.57 287.64?8.16 256.76?7.23 204.84?4.51 1.02?0.02 1.02?0.02 0.93?0.04 avg discounted total cost ? 100.00?0 75.05?0.14 49.96?0.09 25.12?0.13 ? 100.00?0 75.05?0.14 50.09?0.14 25.01?0.16 ? 19.04?0.02 17.96?0.46 time (minutes) 1.0 2.4 2.4 44.3 80.59 1.6 3.7 3.8 70.7 139.3 159.8 242.5 733.1 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) Figure 2: State visitation frequencies of each location in the maze problem over 100 runs. Brightness is proportional to the relative visitation frequency. (a-e) Behavior of BEETLE (a) before the first flag capture, (b) after the top flag captured first, (c) after the top flag captured first and the right flag second, (d) after the right flag captured first, and (e) after the right flag captured first and the top flag second. (f-j) Behavior of CBEETLE (? c = 18). The yellow star represents the current location of the agent. 5 Conclusion In this paper, we proposed CBEETLE, a model-based BRL algorithm for cost-sensitive exploration, extending BEETLE to solve the hyperstate CPOMDP which models BRL using cost constraints. We showed that cost-sensitive BRL can be effectively solved by the randomized point-based value iteration for CPOMDPs. Experimental results show that CBEETLE can learn reasonably good policies for underlying CMDPs while exploring the unknown environment cost-sensitively. While our experiments show that the policies generally satisfy the cost constraints, it can still potentially violate the constraints since we approximate the alpha functions using a finite number of basis functions. As for the future work, we plan to focus on making CBEETLE more robust to the approximation errors by performing a constrained optimization when approximating alpha functions to guarantee that we never violate the cost constraints. Acknowledgments This work was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant# 2012-007881), the Defense Acquisition Program Administration and Agency for Defense Development of Korea (Contract# UD080042AD), and the SW Computing R&D Program of KEIT (2011-10041313) funded by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy of Korea. 8 References [1] R. Howard. Dynamic programming. MIT Press, 1960. [2] M. Duff. Optimal learning: Computational procedures for Bayes-adaptive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, 2002. [3] S. Ross, J. Pineau, B. Chaib-draa, and P. Kreitmann. A Bayesian approach for larning and planning in partially observable markov decision processes. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12, 2011. [4] P. Poupart, N. Vlassis, J. Hoey, and K. Regan. An analytic solution to descrete Bayesian reinforcement learning. In Proc. of ICML, 2006. [5] E. Altman. Constrained Markov Decision Processes. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1999. [6] K. W. Ross and R. Varadarajan. Markov decision-processes with sample path constraints - the communicating case. Operations Research, 37(5):780?790, 1989. [7] K. W. Ross and R. Varadarajan. Multichain Markov decision-processes with a sample path constraint - a decomposition approach. Mathematics of Operations Research, 16(1):195?207, 1991. [8] E. Delage and S. Mannor. Percentile optimization for Markov decision processes with parameter uncertainty. Operations Research, 58(1), 2010. [9] A. Hans, D. Schneega?, A. M. Sch?afer, and S. Udluft. Safe exploration for reinforcement learning. In Proc. of 16th European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, 2008. [10] T. M. Moldovan and P. Abbeel. Safe exploration in Markov decision processes. In Proc. of NIPS Workshop on Bayesian Optimization, Experimental Design and Bandits, 2011. [11] J. D. Isom, S. P. Meyn, and R. D. Braatz. Piecewise linear dynamic programming for constrained POMDPs. In Proc. of AAAI, 2008. [12] D. Kim, J. Lee, K.-E. Kim, and P. Poupart. Point-based value iteration for constrained POMDPs. In Proc. of IJCAI, 2011. [13] A. B. Piunovskiy and X. Mao. Constrained Markovian decision processes: the dynamic programming approach. Operations Research Letters, 27(3):119?126, 2000. [14] M. T. J. Spaan and N. Vlassis. Perseus: Randomized point-based value iteration for POMDPs. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 24, 2005. [15] R. Dearden, N. Friedman, and D. Andre. Bayesian Q-learning. In Proc. of AAAI, 1998. [16] M. Strens. A Bayesian framework for reinforcement learning. In Proc. of ICML, 2000. 9
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How Prior Probability Influences Decision Making: A Unifying Probabilistic Model Abram L. Friesen University of Washington [email protected] Yanping Huang University of Washington [email protected] Michael N. Shadlen Columbia University Howard Hughes Medical Institute [email protected] Timothy D. Hanks Princeton University [email protected] Rajesh P. N. Rao University of Washington [email protected] Abstract How does the brain combine prior knowledge with sensory evidence when making decisions under uncertainty? Two competing descriptive models have been proposed based on experimental data. The first posits an additive offset to a decision variable, implying a static effect of the prior. However, this model is inconsistent with recent data from a motion discrimination task involving temporal integration of uncertain sensory evidence. To explain this data, a second model has been proposed which assumes a time-varying influence of the prior. Here we present a normative model of decision making that incorporates prior knowledge in a principled way. We show that the additive offset model and the time-varying prior model emerge naturally when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Decision making in the model reduces to (1) computing beliefs given observations and prior information in a Bayesian manner, and (2) selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. We show that the model can explain both data previously explained using the additive offset model as well as more recent data on the time-varying influence of prior knowledge on decision making. 1 Introduction A fundamental challenge faced by the brain is to combine noisy sensory information with prior knowledge in order to perceive and act in the natural world. It has been suggested (e.g., [1, 2, 3, 4]) that the brain may solve this problem by implementing an approximate form of Bayesian inference. These models however leave open the question of how actions are chosen given probabilistic representations of hidden state obtained through Bayesian inference. Daw and Dayan [5, 6] were among the first to study decision theoretic and reinforcement learning models with the goal of interpreting results from various neurobiological experiments. Bogacz and colleagues proposed a model that combines a traditional decision making model with reinforcement learning [7] (see also [8, 9]). In the decision making literature, two apparently contradictory models have been suggested to explain how the brain utilizes prior knowledge in decision making: (1) a model that adds an offset to a 1 decision variable, implying a static effect of changes to the prior probability [10, 11, 12], and (2) a model that adds a time varying weight to the decision variable, representing the changing influence of prior probability over time [13]. The LATER model (Linear Approach to Threshold with Ergodic Rate), an instance of the additive offset model, incorporates prior probability as the starting point of a linearly rising decision variable and successfully predicts changes to saccade latency when discriminating between two low contrast stimuli [10]. However, the LATER model fails to explain data from the random dots motion discrimination task [14] in which the agent is presented with noisy, time-varying stimuli and must continually process this data in order to make a correct choice and receive reward. The drift diffusion model (DDM), which uses a random walk accumulation, instead of a linear rise to a boundary, has been successful in explaining behavioral and neurophysiological data in various perceptual discrimination tasks [14, 15, 16]. However, in order to explain behavioral data from recent variants of random dots tasks in which the prior probability of motion direction is manipulated [13], DDMs require the additional assumption of dynamic reweighting of the influence of the prior over time. Here, we present a normative framework for decision making that incorporates prior knowledge and noisy observations under a reward maximization hypothesis. Our work is inspired by models which cast human and animal decision making in a rational, or optimal, framework. Frazier & Yu [17] used dynamic programming to derive an optimal strategy for two-alternative forced choice tasks under a stochastic deadline. Rao [18] proposed a neural model for decision making based on the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) [19]; the model focuses on network implementation and learning but assumes a fixed deadline to explain the collapsing decision threshold seen in many decision making tasks. Drugowitsch et al. [9] sought to explain the collapsing decision threshold by combining a traditional drift diffusion model with reward rate maximization; their model also requires knowledge of decision time in hindsight. In this paper, we derive a novel POMDP model from which we compute the optimal behavior for sequential decision making tasks. We demonstrate our model?s explanatory power on two such tasks: the random dots motion discrimination task [13] and Carpenter and Williams? saccadic eye movement task [10]. We show that the urgency signal, hypothesized in previous models, emerges naturally as a collapsing decision boundary with no assumption of a decision deadline. Furthermore, our POMDP formulation enables incorporation of partial or incomplete prior knowledge about the environment. By fitting model parameters to the psychometric function in the neutral prior condition (equal prior probability of either direction), our model accurately predicts both the psychometric function and the reaction times for the biased (unequal prior probability) case, without introducing additional free parameters. Finally, the same model also accurately predicts the effect of prior probability changes on the distribution of reaction times in the Carpenter and Williams task, data that was previously interpreted in terms of the additive offset model. 2 2.1 Decision Making in a POMDP framework Model Setup We model a decision making task using a POMDP, which assumes that at any particular time step, t, the environment is in a particular hidden state, x ? X , that is not directly observable by the animal. The animal can make sensory measurements in order to observe noisy samples of this hidden state. At each time step, the animal receives an observation (stimulus), st , from the environment as determined by an emission distribution, Pr(st |x). The animal must maintain a belief over the set of possible true world states, given the observations it has made so far: bt (x) = Pr(x|s1:t ), where s1:t represents the sequence of stimuli that the animal has received so far, and b0 (x) represents the animal?s prior knowledge about the environment. At each time step, the animal chooses an action, a ? A and receives an observation and a reward, R(x, a), from the environment, depending on the current state and the action taken. The animal uses Bayes rule to update its belief about the environment after each observation. Through these interactions, the animal learns a policy, ?(b) ? A for all b, which dictates the action to take for each belief state. The goal is to find an optimal policy, ? ? (b), that maximizes the animal?s total expected future reward in the task. For example, in the random dots motion discrimination task, the hidden state, x, is composed of both the coherence of the random dots c ? [0, 1] and the direction d ? {?1, 1} (corresponding to leftward and rightward motion, respectively), neither of which are known to the animal. The 2 animal is shown a movie of randomly moving dots, a fraction of which are moving in the same direction (this fraction is the coherence). The movie is modeled as a sequence of time varying stimuli s1:t . Each frame, st , is a snapshot of the changes in dot positions, sampled from the emission distribution st ? Pr(st |kc, d), where k > 0 is a free parameter that determines the scale of st . In order to discriminate the direction given the stimuli, the animal uses Bayes rule to compute the posterior probability of the static joint hidden state, Pr(x = kdc|s1:t )1 . At each time step, the animal chooses one of three actions, a ? {AR , AL , AS }, denoting rightward eye movement, leftward eye movement, and sampling (i.e., waiting for one more observation), respectively. When the animal makes a correct choice (i.e., a rightward eye movement a = AR when x > 0 or a leftward eye movement a = AL when x < 0), the animal receives a positive reward RP > 0. The animal receives a negative reward (penalty) or no reward when an incorrect action is chosen, RN ? 0. We assume that the animal is motivated by hunger or thirst to make a decision as quickly as possible and model this with a unit penalty RS = ?1, representing the cost the agent needs to pay when choosing the sampling action AS . 2.2 Bayesian Inference of Hidden State from Prior Information and Noisy Observations In a POMDP, decisions are made based on the belief state bt (x) = Pr(x|s1:t ), which is the posterior probability distribution over x given a sequence of observations s1:t . The initial belief b0 (x) represents the animal?s prior knowledge about x. In both the Carpenter and William?s task [10] and the random dots motion discrimination task [13], prior information about the probability of a specific direction (we use rightward direction here, dR , without loss of generality) is learned by the subjects, Pr(dR ) = Pr(d = 1) = Pr(x > 0) = 1 ? Pr(dL ). Consider the random dots motion discrimination task. Unlike the traditional case where a full prior distribution is given, this direction-only prior information provides only partial knowledge about the hidden state which also includes coherence. In the least informative case, only Pr(dR ) is known and we model the distribution over the remaining components of x as a uniform distribution. Combining this with the direction prior, which is Bernoulli distributed, gives a piecewise uniform distribution for the prior, b0 (x). In the general case, we can express the distribution over coherence as a normal distribution parameterized by ?0 and ?0 , resulting in a piecewise normal prior over x,  Pr(dR ) x?0 (1) b0 (x) = Z0?1 N (x | ?0 , ?0 ) ? Pr(dL ) x < 0, where Zt = Pr(d R x R )(1 ? ? (0 | ?t , ?t )) + Pr(dL )? (0 | ?t , ?t ) is the normalization factor and ?(x | ?, ?) = ?? N (x | ?, ?)dx is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the normal distribution. The piecewise uniform prior is then just a special case with ?0 = 0 and ?0 = ?. We assume the emission distribution is also normally-distributed, Pr(st |x) = N (st |x, ?e2 ), which, from Bayes? rule, results in a piecewise normal posterior distribution  Pr(dR ) x?0 ?1 bt (x) = Zt N (x | ?t , ?t ) ? (2) Pr(dL ) x<0     ?0 t? st 1 t where ?t = + 2 / + 2 , (3) 2 2 ?0 ?e ?0 ?e  ?1 1 t ?t2 = + , (4) ?02 ?e2 Pt and the running average s?t = t0 =1 st0 /t. Consequently, the posterior distribution depends only on s? and t, the two sufficient statistics of the sequence s1:t . For the case of a piecewise uniform prior, ?2 the variance ?t2 = te , which decreases inversely in proportion to elapsed time. Unless otherwise mentioned, we fix ?e = 1, ?0 = ? and ?0 = 0 for the rest of this paper because we can rescale the POMDP time step t0 = ?te to compensate. 1 In the decision making tasks that we model in this paper, the hidden state is fixed within a trial and thus there is no transition distribution to include in the belief update equation. However, the POMDP framework is entirely valid for time-varying states. 3 2.3 Finding the optimal policy by reward maximization Within the POMDP framework, the animal?s goal is to find an optimal policy ? ? (bt ) that maximizes its expected reward, starting at bt . This is encapsulated in the value function "? # X ? v (bt ) = E r(bt+k , ?(bt+k )) | bt , ? (5) k=1 where the expectation is taken with respect to all future belief states (bt+1 , . . . , bt+k , . . .) given that the animal is using ? to make decisions, and r(b, a) is the reward R function over belief states or, equivalently, the expected reward over hidden states, r(b, a) = x R(x, a)b(x)dx. Given the value function, the optimal policy is simply ? ? (b) = arg max? v ? (b). In this model, the belief b is parameterized by s?t and t, so the animal only needs to keep track of these instead of encoding the entire posterior distribution bt (x) explicitly. R In our model, the expected reward r(b, a) = x R(x, a)b(x)dx is ? RS , when a = AS ? ? ?1 when a = AR r(b, a) = Zt [ RP Pr(dR ) (1 ? ?(0 | ?t , ?t )) + RN Pr(dL )?(0 | ?t , ?t ) ], ? ? ?1 Zt [ RN Pr(dR ) (1 ? ?(0 | ?t , ?t )) + RP Pr(dL )?(0 | ?t , ?t ) ], when a = AL (6) where ?t and ?t are given by (3) and (4), respectively. The above equations can be interpreted as follows. With probability Pr(dL ) ? ?(0 | ?t , ?t ), the hidden state x is less than 0, making AR an incorrect decision and resulting in a penalty RN if chosen. Similarly, action AR is correct with probability Pr(dR ) ? [1 ? ?(0 | ?t , ?t )] and earns a reward of RP . The inverse is true for AL . When AS is selected, the animal simply receives an observation at a cost of RS . Computing the value function defined in (5) involves an expectation with respect to future belief. Therefore, we need to compute the transition probabilities over belief states, T (bt+1 |bt , a), for each action. When the animal chooses to sample, at = AS , the animal?s belief distribution at the next time step is computed by marginalizing over all possible observations [19] Z T (bt+1 |bt , AS ) = Pr(bt+1 |s, bt , AS )Pr(s|bt , AS )ds (7) s 1 if bt+1 (x) = Pr(s|x)bt (x)/Pr(s|bt , AS ), ?x (8) where Pr(bt+1 | s, bt , AS ) = 0 otherwise; Z and Pr(s | bt , AS ) = Pr(s|x)Pr(x|b, a)dx = Ex?b [Pr(s|x)] (9) x When choosing AS , the agent does not affect the world state, so, given the current state bt and an observation s, the updated belief bt+1 is deterministic and thus Pr(bt+1 | s, bt , AS ) is a delta function, following Bayes? rule. The probability Pr(s | bt , AS ) can be treated as a normalization factor and is independent of hidden state2 . Thus, the transition probability function, T (bt+1 | bt , AS ), is solely a function of the belief bt and is a stationary distribution over the belief space. When the selected action is AL or AR , the animal stops sampling and makes an eye movement to the left or the right, respectively. To account for these cases, we include a terminal state, ?, with zeroreward (i.e., R(?, a) = 0, ?a), and absorbing behavior, T (?|?, a) = 1, ?a. Moreover, whenever the animal chooses AL or AR , the POMDP immediately transitions into ?: T (?|b, a ? {AL , AR }) = 1, ?b, indicating the end of a trial. Given the transition probability between belief states T (bt+1 |bt , a) and the reward function, we can convert our POMDP model into a Markov Decision Process (MDP) over the belief state. Standard dynamic programming techniques (e.g., value iteration [20]) can then be applied to compute the value function in (5). A neurally plausible method for learning the optimal policy by trial and error using temporal difference (TD) learning was suggested in [18]. Here, we derive the optimal policy from first principles and focus on comparisons between our model?s predictions and behavioral data. 2 Explicitly, Pr(s|bt , AS ) = Zt?1 N (s|?t , ?e2 + ?t2 )[Pr(dR ) + (1 ? 2Pr(dR ))?(0| 4 ?t 2 ?t 1 2 ?t + s2 ?e + 12 ?e , ( ?12 + ?12 )?1 ]). t e 3 3.1 Model Predictions Optimal Policy (a) (b) Figure 1: Optimal policy for Pr(dR ) = 0.5, and 0.9. (a?b) Optimal policy as a joint function of s? and t. Every point in these figures represents a belief state determined by equations (2), (3) and (4). The color of each point represents the corresponding optimal action. The boundaries ?R (t) and ?L (t) divide the belief space into three areas ?S (center), ?R (upper) and ?L (lower), respectively. P Model parameters: RNR?R = 1, 000. S Figure 1(a) shows the optimal policy ? ? as a joint function of s? and t for the unbiased case where the prior probability Pr(dR ) = Pr(dL ) = 0.5. ? ? partitions the belief space into three regions: ?R , ?L , and ?S , representing the set of belief states preferring actions AR , AL and AS , respectively. We define the boundary between AR and AS , and the boundary between AL and AS as ?R (t) and ?L (t), respectively. Early in a trial, the model selects the sampling action AS regardless of the value of the observed evidence. This is because the variance of the running average s? is high for small t. Later in the trial, the model will choose AR or AL when s? is only slightly above 0 because this variance decreases as the model receives more observations. For this reason, the width of ?S diminishes over time. This gradual decrease in the threshold for choosing one of the non-sampling actions AR or AL has been called a ?collapsing bound? in the decision making literature [21, 17, 22]. For this unbiased prior case, the expected reward function is symmetric, r(bt (x), AR ) = r(Pr(x|? st , t), AR ) = r(Pr(x| ?? st , t), AL ), and thus the decision boundaries are also symmetric around 0: ?R (t) = ??L (t). The optimal policy ? ? is entirely determined by the reward parameters {RP , RN , RS } and the prior probability (the standard deviation of the emission distribution ?e only determines the temporal resolution of the POMDP). It applies to both Carpenter and Williams? task and the random dots task (these two tasks differ only in the interpretation of the hidden state x). The optimal action at a specific belief state is determined by the relative, not the absolute, value of the expected future reward. From (6), we have r(b, AL ) ? r(b, AR ) ? RN ? RP . (10) Moreover, if the unit of reward is specified by the sampling penalty, the optimal policy ? ? is entirely P and the prior. determined by the ratio RNR?R S As the prior probability becomes biased, the optimal policy becomes asymmetric. When the prior probability, Pr(dR ), increases, the decision boundary for the more likely direction (?R (t)) shifts towards the center (the dashed line at s? = 0 in figure 1), while the decision boundary for the opposite direction (?L (t)) shifts away from the center, as illustrated in Figure 1(b) for prior Pr(dR = 0.9). Early in a trial, ?S has approximately the same width as in the neutral prior case, but it is shifted downwards to favor more sampling for dL (? s < 0). Later in a trial, even for some belief states with s? < 0, the optimal action is still AR , because the effect of the prior is stronger than that of the observed data. 3.2 Psychometric function and reaction times in the random dots task We now construct a decision model from the learned policy for the reaction time version of the motion discrimination task [14], and compare the model?s predictions to the psychometric and 5 (a) Human SK (b) Human LH (c) Monkey Pr(dR ) = .8 (d) Monkey Pr(dR ) = .7 Figure 2: Comparison of Psychometric (upper panels) and Chronometric (lower panels) functions between the Model and Experiments. The dots with error bars represent experimental data from human subject SK, and LH, and the combined results from four monkeys. Blue solid curves are model predictions in the neutral case while green dotted curves are model predictions from the P = 1, 000, k = 1.45. biased case. The R2 fits are shown in the plots. Model parameters: (a) RNR?R S RN ?RP RN ?RP (b) RS = 1, 000, ? = 1.45. (c) Pr(dR ) = 0.8, RS = 1, 000, k = 1.4. (d) Pr(dR ) = 0.7, RN ?RP = 1, 000, k = 1.4. RS chronometric functions of a monkey performing the same task [13, 14]. Recall that the belief b is parametrized by s?t and t, so the animal only needs to know the elapsed time and compute a running average s?t of the observations in order to maintain the posterior belief bt (x). Given its current belief, the animal selects an action from the optimal policy ? ? (bt ). When bt ? ?S , the animal chooses the sampling action and gets a new observation st+1 . Otherwise the animal terminates the trial by making an eye movement to the right or to the left, for s?t > ?R (t) or s?t < ?L (t), respectively. The performance on the task using the optimal policy can be measured in terms of both the accuracy of direction discrimination (the so-called psychometric function), and the reaction time required to reach a decision (the chronometric function). The hidden variable x = kdc encapsulates the unknown direction and coherence, as well as the free parameter k that determines the scale of stimulus st . Without loss of generality, we fix d = 1 (rightward direction), and set the hidden direction dR as the biased direction. Given an optimal policy, we compute both the psychometric and chronometric function by simulating a large number of trials (10000 trials per data point) and collecting the reaction time and chosen direction from each trial. The upper panels of figure 2(a) and 2(b) (blue curves) show the performance accuracy as a function of coherence for both the model (blue solid curve) and the human subjects (blue dots) for neutral prior Pr(dR ) = 0.5. We fit our simulation results to the experimental data by adjusting the only P and k. The lower panels of figure 2(a) and 2(b) (blue two free parameters in our model: RNR?R S solid curves) shows the predicted mean reaction time for correct choices as a function of coherence c for our model (blue solid curve, with same model parameters) and the data (blue dots). Note that our model?s predicted reaction times represent the expected number of POMDP time steps before making a rightward eye movement AR , which we can directly compare to the monkey?s experimental data in units of real time. A linear regression is used to determine the duration ? of a single time step and the onset of decision time tnd . This offset, tnd , can be naturally interpreted as the non-decision residual time. We applied the experimental mean reaction time reported in [13] with motion coherence c = 0.032, 0.064, 0.128, 0.256 and 0.512 to compute the slope and offset, ? and tnd . Linear regression gives the unit duration per POMDP step as ? = 5.74ms , and the offset tnd = 314.6ms, for human SK. For human LH, similar results are obtained with ? = 5.20ms and tnd = 250.0ms. Our predicted offsets compare well with the 300ms non-decision time on average reported in the literature [23, 24]. 6 When the human subject is verbally told that the prior probability is Pr(dR ) = Pr(d = 1) = 0.8, the experimental data is inconsistent with the predictions of the classic drift diffusion model [14] unless an additional assumption of a dynamic bias signal is introduced. In the POMDP model we propose, we predict both the accuracy and reaction times in the biased setting (green curves in figure 2) with the parameters learned in the neutral case, and achieve a good fit (with the coefficients of determination shown in fig. 2) to the experimental data reported by Hanks et al. [13]. Our model predictions for the biased cases are a direct result of the reward maximization component of our framework and require no additional parameter fitting. Combined behavioral data from four monkeys is shown by the dotted curves in figure 2(c). We fit our model parameters to the psychometric function in the neutral case, with ? = 8.20ms and tnd = 312.50ms, and predict both the psychometric function and the reaction times in the biased case. However, our results do not match the monkey data as well as the human data when Pr(dR ) = 0.8. This may be due to the fact that the monkeys cannot receive verbal instructions from the experimenters and must learn an estimate of the prior during training. As a result, the monkeys? estimate of the prior probability might be inaccurate. To test this hypothesis, we simulated our model with Pr(dR ) = 0.7 (see figure 2(d)) and these results fit the experimental data much more accurately (even though the actual probability was 0.8). 3.3 Reaction times in the Carpenter and Williams? task (a) (b) Figure 3: Model predictions of saccadic eye movement in Carpenter & Williams? experiments [10]. (a) Saccadic latency distributions from model simulations plotted in the form of probitscale cumulative mass function, as a function of reciprocal latency. For different values of Pr(dR ), the simulated data are well fit by straight lines, indicating that the reciprocal of latency follows a normal distribution. The solid lines are linear functions fit to the data with the constraint that all lines must pass through the same intercept for infinite time (see [10]). (b) Median latency plotted as a function of log prior probability. Black dots are from experimental data and blue dots are model predictions. The two (overlapping) straight lines are the linear least squares fits to the experimental data and model data. These lines do not differ noticeably in either slope or offset. Model parameters: RN ?RP = 1, 000, k = 0.3, ?e = 0.46. RS In Carpenter and Williams? task, the animal needs to decide on which side d ? {?1, 1} (denoting left or right side) a target light appeared at a fixed distance from a central fixation light. After the sudden appearance of the target light, a constant stimulus st = s is observed by the animal, where s can be regarded as the perceived location of the target. Due to noise and uncertainty in the nervous system, we assume that s varies from trial to trial, centered at the location of the target light and with standard deviation ?e (i.e., s ? N (s | k, ?e2 )), where k is the distance between the target and the fixation light. Inference over the direction d thus involves joint inference over (d, k) where the emission probability follows Pr(s|d, k). Then the joint state (k, d) can be one-on-one-mapped to kd = x, where x represents the actual location of the target light. Under the POMDP framework, Carpenter and Williams? task and the random dots task differ in the interpretation of hidden state x and stimulus s, but they follow the same optimal policy given the same reward parameters. Without loss of generality, we set the hidden variable x > 0 and say that the animal makes a correct choice at a hitting time tH when the animal?s belief state reaches the right boundary. The 7 ?1 saccadic latency can be computed by inverting the boundary function ?R (s) = tH . Since, for small t, ?R (t) behaves like a simple reciprocal function of t, the reciprocal of the reaction time is approximately proportional to a normal distribution with t1H ? N (1/tH | k, ?e2 ). In figure 3(a), we plot the distribution of reciprocal reaction time with different values of Pr(dR ) on a probit scale (similar to [10]). Note that we label the y-axis using the CDF of the corresponding probit value and the x-axis in figure 3(a) has been reversed. If the reciprocal of reaction time (with the same prior Pr(dR ))?follows a normal distribution, each point on the graph will fall on a straight line with y-intercept k?e2 that is independent of Pr(dR ). We fit straight lines to the points on the graph, with the constraint that all lines should pass through the same intercept for infinite time (see [10]). We obtain an intercept of 6.19, consistent with the intercept 6.20 obtained from experimental data in [10]. Figure 3(b) demonstrates that the median of our model?s reaction times is a linear function of the log of the prior probability. Increasing the prior probability lowers the decision boundary ?R (t), effectively decreasing the latency. The slope and intercept of the best fit line are consistent with experimental data (see fig. 3(b)). 4 Summary and Conclusion Our results suggest that decision making in the primate brain may be governed by the dual principles of Bayesian inference and reward maximization as implemented within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). The model provides a unified explanation for experimental data previously explained by two competing models, namely, the additive offset model and the dynamic weighting model for incorporating prior knowledge. In particular, the model predicts psychometric and chronometric data for the random dots motion discrimination task [13] as well as Carpenter and Williams? saccadic eye movement task [10]. Previous models of decision making, such as the LATER model [10] and the drift diffusion model [25, 15], have provided descriptive accounts of reaction time and accuracy data but often require assumptions such as a collapsing bound, urgency signal, or dynamic weighting to fully explain the data [26, 21, 22, 13]. Our model provides a normative account of the data, illustrating how the subject?s choices can be interpreted as being optimal under the framework of POMDPs. Our model relies on the principle of reward maximization to explain how an animal?s decisions are influenced by changes in prior probability. The same principle also allows us to predict how an animal?s choice is influenced by changes in the reward function. Specifically, the model predicts that P the optimal policy ? ? is determined by the ratio RNR?R and the prior probability Pr(dR ). Thus, a S testable prediction of the model is that the speed-accuracy trade-off in tasks such as the random dots P task is governed by the ratio RNR?R : smaller penalties for sampling (RS ) will increase accuracy S and reaction time, as will larger rewards for correct choices (RP ) or greater penalties for errors (RN ). Since the reward parameters in our model represent internal reward, our model also provides a bridge to study the relationship between physical reward and subjective reward. In our model of the random dots discrimination task, belief is expressed in terms of a piecewise normal distribution with the domain of the hidden variable x ? (??, ?). A piecewise beta distribution with domain x ? [?1, 1] fits the experimental data equally well. However, the beta distribution?s conjugate prior is the multinomial, which can limit the application of this model. For example, the observations in the Carpenter and Williams? model cannot easily be described by a discrete value. The belief in our model can be expressed by any distribution, even a non-parametric one, as long as the observation model provides a faithful representation of the stimuli and captures the essential relationship between the stimuli and the hidden world state. The POMDP model provides a unifying framework for a variety of perceptual decision making tasks. Our state variable x and action variable a work with arbitrary state and action spaces, ranging from multiple alternative choices to high dimensional real value choices. The state variables can also be dynamic, with xt following a Markov chain. Currently, we have assumed that the stimuli are independent from one time step to the next, but most real world stimuli are temporally correlated. Our model is suitable for decision tasks with time-varying state and observations that are time dependent within a trial (as long as they are conditional independent given the time-varying hidden state sequence). We thus expect our model to be applicable to significantly more complicated tasks than the ones modeled here. 8 References [1] D. Knill and W. Richards. Perception as Bayesian inference. Cambridge University Press, 1996. [2] R.S. Zemel, P. Dayan, and A. Pouget. Probabilistic interpretation of population codes. Neural Computation, 10(2), 1998. [3] R.P.N. Rao. Bayesian computation in recurrent neural circuits. Neural Computation, 16(1):1?38, 2004. [4] W.J. Ma, J.M. Beck, P.E. Latham, and A. Pouget. Bayesian inference with probabilistic population codes. Nature Neuroscience, 9(11):1432?1438, 2006. [5] N.D. Daw, A.C. Courville, and D.S.Touretzky. Representation and timing in theories of the dopamine system. Neural Computation, 18(7):1637?1677, 2006. [6] P. Dayan and N.D. Daw. Decision theory, reinforcement learning, and the brain. Cognitive, Affective and Behavioral Neuroscience, 8:429?453, 2008. [7] R. Bogacz and T. Larsen. Integration of reinforcement learning and optimal decision making theories of the basal ganglia. Neural Computation, 23:817?851, 2011. [8] C.T. Law and J. I. Gold. Reinforcement learning can account for associative and perceptual learning on a visual-decision task. Nat. Neurosci, 12(5):655?663, 2009. [9] J. Drugowitsch, and A. K. Churchland R. Moreno-Bote, M. N. Shadlen, and A. Pouget. The cost of accumulating evidence in perceptual decision making. J. Neurosci, 32(11):3612?3628, 2012. [10] R.H.S. Carpenter and M.L.L. Williams. Neural computation of log likelihood in the control of saccadic eye movements. Nature, 377:59?62, 1995. [11] M.C. Dorris and D.P. Munoz. Saccadic probability influences motor preparation signals and time to saccadic initiation. J. Neurosci, 18:7015?7026, 1998. [12] J.I. Gold, C.T. Law, P. Connolly, and S. Bennur. The relative influences of priors and sensory evidence on an oculomotor decision variable during perceptual learning. J. Neurophysiol, 100(5):2653?2668, 2008. [13] T.D. Hanks, M.E. Mazurek, R. Kiani, E. Hopp, and M.N. Shadlen. Elapsed decision time affects the weighting of prior probability in a perceptual decision task. Journal of Neuroscience, 31(17):6339?6352, 2011. [14] J.D. Roitman and M.N. Shadlen. Response of neurons in the lateral intraparietal area during a combined visual discrimination reaction time task. Jounral of Neuroscience, 22, 2002. [15] R. Bogacz, E. Brown, J. Moehlis, P. Hu, P. Holmes, and J.D. Cohen. The physics of optimal decision making: A formal analysis of models of performance in two-alternative forced choice tasks. Psychological Review, 113:700?765, 2006. [16] R. Ratcliff and G. McKoon. The diffusion decision model: Theory and data for two-choice decision tasks. Neural Computation, 20:127?140, 2008. [17] P. L. Frazier and A. J. Yu. Sequential hypothesis testing under stochastic deadlines. In Advances in Neural Information procession Systems, 20, 2007. [18] R.P.N. Rao. Decision making under uncertainty: A neural model based on POMDPs. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 4(146), 2010. [19] L. P. Kaelbling, M. L. Littman, and A. R. Cassandra. Planning and acting in partially observable stochastic domains. Artificial Intelligence, 101:99?134, 1998. [20] R.S. Sutton and A.G. Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. The MIT Press, 1998. [21] P.E. Latham, Y. Roudi, M. Ahmadi, and A. Pouget. Deciding when to decide. Soc. Neurosci. Abstracts, 740(10), 2007. [22] A. K. Churchland, R. Kiani, and M. N. Shadlen. Decision-making with multiple alternatives. Nat. Neurosci., 11(6), 2008. [23] R.D. Luce. Response times: their role in inferring elementary mental organization. Oxford University Press, 1986. [24] M.E. Mazurek, J.D. Roitman, J. Ditterich, and M.N. Shadlen. A role for neural integrators in perceptual decision-making. Cerebral Cortex, 13:1257?1269, 2003. [25] J. Palmer, A.C. Huk, and M.N. Shadlen. The effects of stimulus strength on the speed and accuracy of a perceptual decision. Journal of Vision, 5:376?404, 2005. [26] J. Ditterich. Stochastic models and decisions about motion direction: Behavior and physiology. Neural Networks, 19:981?1012, 2006. 9
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A Bayesian Approach for Policy Learning from Trajectory Preference Queries Aaron Wilson ? School of EECS Oregon State University Alan Fern ? School of EECS Oregon State University Prasad Tadepalli ? School of EECS Oregon State University Abstract We consider the problem of learning control policies via trajectory preference queries to an expert. In particular, the agent presents an expert with short runs of a pair of policies originating from the same state and the expert indicates which trajectory is preferred. The agent?s goal is to elicit a latent target policy from the expert with as few queries as possible. To tackle this problem we propose a novel Bayesian model of the querying process and introduce two methods that exploit this model to actively select expert queries. Experimental results on four benchmark problems indicate that our model can effectively learn policies from trajectory preference queries and that active query selection can be substantially more efficient than random selection. 1 Introduction Directly specifying desired behaviors for automated agents is a difficult and time consuming process. Successful implementation requires expert knowledge of the target system and a means of communicating control knowledge to the agent. One way the expert can communicate the desired behavior is to directly demonstrate it and have the agent learn from the demonstrations, e.g. via imitation learning [15, 3, 13] or inverse reinforcement learning [12]. However, in some cases, like the control of complex robots or simulation agents, it is difficult to generate demonstrations of the desired behaviors. In these cases an expert may still recognize when an agent?s behavior matches a desired behavior, or is close to it, even if it is difficult to directly demonstrate it. In such cases an expert may also be able to evaluate the relative qualities to the desired behavior of a pair of example trajectories and express a preference for one or the other. Given this motivation, we study the problem of learning expert policies via trajectory preference queries to an expert. A trajectory preference query (TPQ) is a pair of short state trajectories originating from a common state. Given a TPQ the expert is asked to indicate which trajectory is most similar to the target behavior. The goal of our learner is to infer the target trajectory using as few TPQs as possible. Our first contribution (Section 3) is to introduce a Bayesian model of the querying process along with an inference approach for sampling policies from the posterior given a set of TPQs and their expert responses. Our second contribution (Section 4) is to describe two active query strategies that attempt to leverage the model in order to minimize the number of queries required. Finally, our third contribution (Section 5) is to empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and querying strategies on four benchmark problems. We are not the first to examine preference learning for sequential decision making. In the work of Cheng et al. [5] action preferences were introduced into the classification based policy iteration ? [email protected] [email protected] ? [email protected] ? 1 framework. In this framework preferences explicitly rank state-action pairs according to their relative payoffs. There is no explicit interaction between the agent and domain expert. Further the approach also relies on knowledge of the reward function, while our work derives all information about the target policy by actively querying an expert. In more closely related to our work, Akraur et al. [1] consider the problem of learning a policy from expert queries. Similar to our proposal this work suggests presenting trajectory data to an informed expert. However, their queries require the expert to express preferences over approximate state visitation densities and to possess knowledge of the expected performance of demonstrated policies. Necessarily the trajectories must be long enough to adequately approximate the visitation density. We remove this requirement and only require short demonstrations; our expert assesses trajectory snippets not whole solutions. We believe this is valuable because pairs of short demonstrations are an intuitive and manageable object for experts to assess. 2 Preliminaries We explore policy learning from expert preferences in the framework of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). An MDP is a tuple (S, A, T, P0 , R) with state space S, action space A, state transition distribution T , which gives the probability T (s, a, s0 ) of transitioning to state s0 given that action a is taken in state s. The initial state distribution P0 (s0 ) gives a probability distribution over initial states s0 . Finally the reward function R(s) gives the reward for being in state s. Note that in this work, the agent will not be able to observe rewards and rather must gather all information about the quality of policies via interaction with an expert. We consider agents that select actions using a policy ?? parameterized by ?, which is a stochastic mapping from states to actions P? (a|s, ?). For example, in our experiments, we use a log-linear policy representation, where the parameters correspond to coefficients of features defined over state-action pairs. Agents acting in an MDP experience the world as a sequence of state-action pairs called a trajectory. We denote a K-length trajectory as ? = (s0 , a0 , ..., aK?1 , sK ) beginning in state s0 and terminating after K steps. It follows from the definitions above that the probability of generating a K-length trajectory given that the agent executes policy ?? starting from state s0 is, QK P (?|?, s0 ) = t=1 T (st?1 , at?1 , st )P? (at?1 |st?1 , ?). Trajectories are an important part of our query process. They are an intuitive means of communicating policy information. Trajectories have the advantage that the expert need not share a language with the agent. Instead the expert is only required to recognize differences in physical performances presented by the agent. For purposes of generating trajectories we assume that our learner is provided with a strong simulator (or generative model) of the MDP dynamics, which takes as input a start state s, a policy ?, and a value K, and outputs a sampled length K trajectory of ? starting in s. In this work, we evaluate policies in an episodic setting where an episode starts by drawing an initial state from P0 and then executing the policy for a finite horizon T . A policy?s value is the expected total reward of an episode. The goal of the learner is to select a policy whose value is close to that of an expert?s policy. Note, that our work is not limited to finite-horizon problems, but can also be applied to infinite-horizon formulations. In order to learn a policy, the agent presents trajectory preference queries (TPQs) to the expert and receives responses back. A TPQ is a pair of length K trajectories (?i , ?j ) that originate from a common state s. Typically K will be much smaller than the horizon T , which is important from the perspective of expert usability. Having been provided with a TPQ the expert gives a response y indicating, which trajectory is preferred. Thus, each TPQ results in a training data tuple (?i , ?j , y). Intuitively, the preferred trajectory is the one that is most similar to what the expert?s policy would have produced from the same starting state. As detailed more in the next section, this is modeled by assuming that the expert has a (noisy) evaluation function f (.) on trajectories and the response is then given by y = I(f (?i ) > f (?j )) (a binary indicator). We assume that the expert?s evaluation function is a function of the observed trajectories and a latent target policy ?? . 3 Bayesian Model and Inference In this section we first describe a Bayesian model of the expert response process, which will be used to: 1) Infer policies based on expert responses to TPQs, and 2) Guide the action selection of 2 TPQs. Next, we describe a posterior sampling method for this model which is used for both policy inference and TPQ selection. 3.1 Expert Response Model The model for the expert response y given a TPQ (?i , ?j ) decomposes as follows P (y|(?i , ?j ), ?? )P (?? ) where P (?? ) is a prior over the latent expert policy, and P (y|(?i , ?j ), ?? ) is a response distribution conditioned on the TPQ and expert policy. In our experiments we use a ridge prior in the form of a Gaussian over ?? with diagonal covariance, which penalizes policies with large parameter values. Response Distribution. The conditional response distribution is represented in terms of an expert evaluation function f ? (?i , ?j , ?? ), described in detail below, which translates a TPQ and a candidate expert policy ?? into a measure of preference for trajectory ?i over ?j . Intuitively, f ? measures the degree to which the policy ?? agrees with ?i relative to ?j . To translate the evaluation into an expert response we borrow from previous work [6]. In particular, we assume the expert response is given by the indicator I(f ? (?i , ?j , ?? ) > ) where  ? N (0, ?r2 ). The indicator simply returns 1 if the condition is true, indicating ?i is preferred, and zero otherwise. It follows that the conditional response distribution is given by: Z P (y = 1|(?i , ?j ), ?? ) = +? I(f ? (?i , ?j , ?? ) > )N (|0, ?r2 )d  ?  f (?i , ?j , ?? ) =? . ?r ?? where ?(.) denotes the cumulative distribution function of the normal distribution. This formulation allows the expert to err when demonstrated trajectories are difficult to distinguish as measured by the magnitude of the evaluation function f ? . We now describe the evaluation function in more detail. Evaluation Function. Intuitively the evaluation function must combine distances between the query trajectories and trajectories generated by the latent target policy. We say that a latent policy and query trajectory are in agreement when they produce similar trajectories. The dissimilarity between two trajectories ?i and ?j is measured by the trajectory dissimilarity function K X k([si,t , ai,t ], [sj,t , aj,t ]) f (?i , ?j ) = t=0 where the variables [si,t , ai,t ] represent the values of the state-action pair at time step t in trajectory i (similarly for [sj,t , aj,t ]) and the function k computes distances between state-action pairs. In our experiments, states and actions are represented by real-valued vectors and we use a simple function of the form: k([s, a], [s0 , a0 ]) = ks ? s0 k + ka ? a0 k though other more sophisticated comparison functions could be easily used in the model. Given the trajectory comparison function, we now encode a dissimilarity measure between the latent target policy and an observed trajectory ?i . To do this let ? ? be a random variable ranging over length k trajectories generated by target policy ?? starting in the start state of ?i . The dissimilarity measure is given by: d(?i , ?? ) = E[f (?i , ? ? )] This function computes the expected dissimilarity between a query trajectory ?i and the K-length trajectories generated by the latent policy from the same initial state. Finally, the comparison function value f ? (?i , ?j , ?? ) = d(?j , ?? ) ? d(?i , ?? ) is the difference in computed values between the ith and jth trajectory. Larger values of f ? indicate stronger preferences for trajectory ?i . 3.2 Posterior Inference Given the definition of the response model, the prior distribution, and an observed data set D = {(?i , ?j , y)} of TPQs and responses the posterior distribution is, P (?? |D) ? P (?? ) Y ? (z)y (1 ? ? (z))1?y , (?i ,?j ,y)?D ? ? d(? ,? )?d(?i ,? ) where z = j ?r must approximate it. . This posterior distribution does not have a simple closed form and we 3 We approximate the posterior distribution using a set of posterior samples which we generate using a stochastic simulation algorithm called Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) [8, 2]. The HMC algorithm is an example of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. MCMC algorithms output a sequence of samples from the target distribution. HMC has an advantage in our setting because it introduces auxiliary momentum variables proportional to the gradient of the posterior which guides the sampling process toward the modes of the posterior distribution. To apply the HMC algorithm we must derive the gradient of the energy function 5?? log(P (D|?)P (?)) as follows. ? ? log[P (?? |D)] = log[P (?? )] + ??i? ??i? X (?i ,?j ,y)?D   ? log ? (z)y (1 ? ? (z))1?y ??i? The energy function decomposes into prior and likelihood components. Using our assumption of a Gaussian prior with diagonal covariance on ?? the partial derivative of the prior component at ?i? is (?? ? ?) ? log[P (?? )] = ? i 2 . ??i? ? Next, consider the gradient of the data log likelihood, X (?i ,?j ,y)?D   ? log ?(z)y (1 ? ?(z))1?y , ??i? which decomposes into |D| components each of which has a value dependent on y. In what follows we will assume that y = 1 (It is straight forward to derive the second case). Recall that the function ?(.) is the cumulative distribution function of N (z; 0, ?r2 ), Therefore, the gradient of log(?(z)) is,    ? 1 ? ?(z) = z N (z; 0, ?r2 ) ??i? ?(z) ??i?     ? 1 1 ? ? ? 2 = d(? , ? ) ? d(? , ? ) N (z; 0, ? ) . j i r ?(z) ?r ??i? ??i? ? 1 log[?(z)] = ??i? ?(z)  Rrecall the definition of d(?, ?? ) from above. After moving the derivative inside the integral the gradient of this function is ? d(?, ?? ) = ? ??i? =? Z f (?, ? ? ) Z f (?, ? ? )P (? ? |?? ) ? P (? ? |?? )d? ? = ? ??i? Z f (?, ? ? )P (? ? |?? ) ? log(P (? ? |?? ))d? ? ??i? K X ? log(P? (ak |sk , ?? ))d? ? . ??i? k=1 The final step follows from the definition of the trajectory density which decomposes under the log transformation. For purposes of approximating the gradient this integral must be estimated. We do this by generating N sample trajectories from P (? ? |?? ) and then compute the Monte-Carlo estimate PN PK ? N1 l=1 f (?, ?l? ) k=1 ??? ? log(P? (ak |sk , ?? )). We leave the definition of log(P? (ak |sk , ?? )) i for the experimental results section where we describe a specific kind of stochastic policy space. Given this gradient calculation, we can apply HMC in order to sample policy parameter vectors from the posterior distribution. This can be used for policy selection in a number of ways. For example, a policy could be formed via Bayesian averaging. In our experiments, we select a policy by generating a large set of samples and then select the sample maximizing the energy function. 4 Active Query Selection Given the ability to perform posterior inference, the question now is how to collect a data set of TPQs and their responses. Unlike many learning problems, there is no natural distribution over TPQs to draw from, and thus, active selection of TPQs is essential. In particular, we want the learner to select TPQs for which the responses will be most useful toward the goal of learning the target policy. This selection problem is difficult due to the high dimensional continuous space of TPQs, where each TPQ is defined by an initial state and two trajectories originating from the state. To help overcome this complexity our algorithm assumes the availability of a distribution P?0 over 4 candidate start states of TPQs. This distribution is intended to generate start states that are feasible and potentially relevant to a target policy. The distribution may incorporate domain knowledge to rule out unimportant parts of the space (e.g. avoiding states where the bicycle has crashed) or simply specify bounds on each dimension of the state space and generate states uniformly within the bounds. Given this distribution, we consider two approaches to actively generating TPQs for the expert. 4.1 Query by Disagreement Our first approach Query by Disagreement (QBD) is similar to the well-known query-by-committee approach to active learning of classifiers [17, 9]. The main idea behind the basic query-by-committee approach is to generate a sequence of unlabeled examples from a given distribution and for each example sample a pair of classifiers from the current posterior. If the sampled classifiers disagree on the class of the example, then the algorithm queries the expert for the class label. This simple approach is often effective and has theoretical guarantees on its efficiency. We can apply this general idea to select TPQs in a straightforward way. In particular, we generate a sequence of potential initial TPQ states from P?0 and for each draw two policies ?i and ?j from the current posterior distribution P (?? |D). If the policies ?disagree? on the state, then a query is posed based on trajectories generated by the policies. Disagreement on an initial state s0 is measured according to the expected difference between K length R trajectories generated by ?i and ?j starting at s0 . In particular, the disagreement measure is g = (?i ,?j ) P (?i |?i , s0 , K)P (?j |?j , s0 , K)f (?i , ?j ), which we estimate via sampling a set of K length trajectories from each policy. If this measure exceeds a threshold then TPQ is generated and given to the expert by running each policy for K steps from the initial state. Otherwise a new initial state is generated. If no query is posed after a specified number of initial states, then the state and policy pair that generated the most disagreement are used to generate the TPQ. We set the threshold t so that ?(t/?r ) = .95. This query strategy has the benefit of generating TPQs such that ?i and ?j are significantly different. This is important from a usability perspective, since making preference judgements between similar trajectories can be difficult for an expert and error prone. In practice we observe that the QBD strategy often generates TPQs based on policy pairs that are from different modes of the distribution, which is an intuitively appealing property. 4.2 Expected Belief Change Another class of active learning approaches for classifiers is more selective than traditional queryby-committee. In particular, they either generate or are given an unlabeled dataset and then use a heuristic to select the most promising example to query from the entire set. Such approaches often outperform less selective approaches such as the traditional query-by-committee. In this same way, our second active learning approach for TPQs attempts to be more selective than the above QBD approach by generating a set of candidate TPQs and heuristically selecting the best among those candidates. A set of candidate TPQs is generated by first drawing an initial state from from P?0 , sampling a pair of policies from the posterior, and then running the policies for K steps from the initial state. It remains to define the heuristic used to select the TPQ for presentation to the expert. A truly Bayesian heuristic selection strategy should account for the overall change in belief about the latent target policy after adding a new data point. To represent the difference in posterior beliefs we use the variational distance between posterior based on the current data D and the posterior based on the updated data D ? {(?i , ?j , y)}. Z V (P (?|D) k P (?|D ? {(?i , ?j , y)})) = |P (?|D) ? P (?|D ? {(?i , ?j , y)})|d?. By integrating over the entire latent policy space it accounts for the total impact of the query on the agent?s beliefs. The value of the variational distance depends on the response to the TPQ, which is unobserved at query selection time. Therefore, the agent computes the expected variational distance, H(d) = X P (y|?i , ?j , D)V (P (?|D) k P (?|D ? {(?i , ?j , y)})). y?0,1 5 R Where P (y|?i , ?j , D) = P (y|?i , ?j , ?? )P (?? |D)d?? is the predictive distribution and is straightforwardly estimated using a set of posterior samples. Finally, we specify a simple method of estimating the variational distance given a particular response. For this, we re-express the variational distance as an expectation with respect to P (?|D), Z P (?|D) V (P (?|D) k P (?|D ? d)) = |P (?|D) ? P (?|D ? d)| d? = P (?|D) ? P (?|D ? d) d? P (?|D) Z Z P (?|D ? d) z1 = P (?|D) 1 ? d? = P (?|D) 1 ? P (d|?) d? P (?|D) z2 Z where z1 and z2 are the normalizing constants of the posterior distributions. The final expression is a likelihood weighted estimate of the variational distance. We can estimate this value using MonteCarlo over a set S of policies sampled from the posterior, X z1 V (P (?|D) k P (?|D ? (?i , ?j , y))) ? 1 ? z2 P (d|?) ??S This leaves the computation of the ratio of normalizing constants zz12 which we estimate using MonteCarlo based on a sample set of policies from the prior distribution, hence avoiding further posterior sampling. Our basic strategy of using an information theoretic selection heuristic is similar to early work using Kullback Leibler Divergence ([7]) to measure the quality of experiments [11, 4]. Our approach differs in that we use a symmetric measure which directly computes differences in probability instead of expected differences in code lengths. The key disadvantage of this form of look-ahead query strategy (shared by other strategies of this kind) is the computational cost. 5 Empirical Results Below we outline our experimental setup and present our empirical results on four standard RL benchmark domains. 5.1 Setup If the posterior distribution focuses mass on the expert policy parameters the expected value of the MAP parameters will converge to the expected value of the expert?s policy. Therefore, to examine the speed of convergence to the desired expert policy we report the performance of the MAP policy in the MDP task. We choose the MAP policy, maximizing P (D|?)P (?), from the sample generated by our HMC routine. The expected return of the selected policy is estimated and reported. Note that no reward information is given to the learner and is used for evaluation only. We produce an automated expert capable of responding to the queries produced by our agent. The expert knows a target policy, and compares, as described above, the query trajectories generated by the agent to the trajectories generated by the target policy. The expert stochastically produces a response based on its evaluations. Target policies are hand designed and produce near optimal performance in each domain. a) In all experiments the agent executes a simple parametric policy, P (a|s, ?) = P exp(?(s)?? . b?A exp(?(s)??b ) The function ?(s) is a set of features derived from the current state s. The complete parameter vector ? is decomposed into components ?a associated with each action a. The policy is executed by sampling an action from this distribution. The gradient of this action selection policy can be derived straightforwardly and substituted into the gradient of the energy function required by our HMC procedure. We use the following values for the unspecified model parameters: ?r2 = 1, ? 2 = 2, ? = 0. The value of K used for TPQ trajectories was set to 10 for each domain except for Bicycle, for which we used K = 300. The Bicycle simulator uses a fine time scale, so that even K = 300 only corresponds to a few seconds of bike riding, which is quite reasonable for a TPQ. For purposes of comparison we implement a simple random TPQ selection strategy (Denoted Random in the graphs below). The random strategy draws an initial TPQ state from P?0 and then generates a trajectory pair by executing two policies drawn i.i.d. from the prior distribution P (?). Thus, this approach does not use information about past query responses when selecting TPQs. 6 Domains. We consider the following benchmark domains. Acrobot. The acrobot task simulates a two link under-actuated robot. One joint end, the ?hands? of the robot, rotates around a fixed point. The mid joint associated with the ?hips? attach the upper and lower links of the robot. To change the joint angle between the upper and lower links the agent applies torque at the hip joint. The lower link swings freely. Our expert knows a policy for swinging the acrobot into a balanced handstand. The acrobot system is defined by four continuous state variables (?1 , ?2 , ??1 , ??2 ) representing the arrangement of the acrobot?s joints and the changing velocities of the joint angles. The acrobot is controlled by a 12 dimensional softmax policy selecting between positive, negative, and zero torque to be applied at the hip joint. The feature vector ?(s) returns the vector of state variables. The acrobot receives a penalty on each step proportional to the distance between the foot and the target position for the foot. Mountain Car. The mountain car domain simulates an underpowered vehicle which the agent must drive to the top of a steep hill. The state of the mountain car system is described by the location of the car x, and its velocity v. The goal of the agent controlling the mountain car system is to utilize the hills surrounding the car to generate sufficient energy to escape a basin. Our expert knows a policy for performing this escape. The agent?s softmax control policy space has 16 dimensions and selects between positive and negative accelerations of the car. The feature vector ?(s) returns a polynomial expansion (x, v, x2 , x3 , xv, x2 v, x3 v, v 2 ) of the state. The agent receives a penalty for every step taken to reach the goal. Cart Pole. In the cart-pole domain the agent attempts to balance a pole fixed to a movable cart while maintaining the carts location in space. Episodes terminate if the pole falls or the cart leaves its specified boundary. The state space is composed of the cart velocity v, change in cart velocity v 0 , angle of the pole ?, and angular velocity of the pole ? 0 . The control policy has 12 dimensions and selects the magnitude of the change in velocity (positive or negative) applied to the base of the cart. The feature vector returns the state of the cart-pole. The agent is penalized for pole positions deviating from upright and for movement away from the midpoint. Bicycle Balancing. Agents in the bicycle balancing task must keep the bicycle balanced for 30000 steps. For our experiments we use the simulator originally introduced in [14]. The state of the bicycle is defined by four variables (?, ?, ? ?, ?). ? The variable ? is the angle of the bicycle with respect to vertical, and ?? is its angular velocity. The variable ? is the angle of the handlebars with respect to neutral, and ?? is the angular velocity. The goal of the agent is to keep the bicycle from falling. Falling occurs when |?| > ?/15. We borrow the same implementation used in[10] including the discrete action set, the 20 dimensional feature space, and 100 dimensional policy. The agent selects from a discrete set of five actions. Each discrete action has two components. The first component is the torque applied to the handlebars T ? (?1, 0, 1), and the second component is the displacement of the rider in the saddle p ? (?.02, 0, .02). From these components five action tuples are composed a ? ((?1, 0), (1, 0), (0, ?.02), (0, .02), (0, 0)). The agent is penalized proportional to the magnitude of ? at each step and receives a fixed penalty for falling. We report the results of our experiments in Figure 1. Each graph gives the results for the TPQ selection strategies Random, Query-by-Disagreement (QBD), and Expected Belief Change (EBC). The average reward versus number of queries is provided for each selection strategy, where curves are averaged over 20 runs of learning. 5.2 Experiment Results In all domains the learning algorithm successfully learns the target policy. This is true independent of the query selection procedure used. As can be seen our algorithm can successfully learn even from queries posed by Random. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our HMC inference approach. Importantly, in some cases, the active query selection heuristics significantly improve the rate of convergence compared to Random. The value of the query selection procedures is particularly high in the Mountain Car and Cart Pole domains. In the Mountain Car domain more than 500 Random queries were needed to match the performance of 50 EBC queries. In both of these domains examining the generated query trajectories shows that the Random strategy tended to produce difficult to distinguish trajectory data and later queries tended to resemble earlier queries. This is due to ?plateaus? in the policy space which produce nearly identical behaviors. Intuitively, the information content of queries selected by Random decreases rapidly leading to slower convergence. By 7 Figure 1: Results: We report the expected return of the MAP policy, sampled during Hybrid MCMC simulation of the posterior, as a function of the number of expert queries. Results are averaged over 50 runs. Query trajectory lengths: Acrobot K = 10, Mountain-Car K = 10, Cart-Pole K = 20, Bicycle Balancing K = 300. comparison the selection heuristics ensure that selected queries have high impact on the posterior distribution and exhibit high query diversity. The benefits of the active selection procedure diminish in the Acrobot and Bicycle domains. In both of these domains active selection performs only slightly better than Random. This is not the first time active selection procedures have shown performance similar to passive methods [16]. In Acrobot all of the query selection procedure quickly converge to the target policy (only 25 queries are needed for Random to identify the target). Little improvement is possible over this result. Similarly, in the bicycle domain the performance results are difficult to distinguish. We believe this is due to the length of the query trajectories (300) and the importance of the initial state distribution. Most bicycle configurations lead to out of control spirals from which no policy can return the bicycle to balanced. In these configurations inputs from the agent result in small impact on the observed state trajectory making policies difficult to distinguish. To avoid these cases in Bicycle the start state distribution P?0 only generated initial states close to a balanced configuration. In these configurations poor balancing policies are easily distinguished from better policies and the better policies are not rare. These factors lead Random to be quite effective in this domain. Finally, comparing the active learning strategies, we see that EBC has a slight advantage over QBD in all domains other than Bicycle. This agrees with prior active learning work, where more selective strategies tend to be superior in practice. The price that EBC pays for the improved performance is in computation time, as it is about an order of magnitude slower. 6 Summary We examined the problem of learning a target policy via trajectory preference queries. We formulated a Bayesian model for the problem and a sampling algorithm for sampling from the posterior over policies. Two query selection methods were introduced, which heuristically select queries with an aim to efficiently identify the target. Experiments in four RL benchmarks indicate that our model and inference approach is able to infer quality policies and that the query selection methods are generally more effective than random selection. Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge the support of ONR under grant number N00014-11-1-0106. 8 References [1] R. Akrour, M. Schoenauer, and M. Sebag. Preference-based policy learning. In Dimitrios Gunopulos, Thomas Hofmann, Donato Malerba, and Michalis Vazirgiannis, editors, Proc. ECML/PKDD?11, Part I, volume 6911 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 12?27. Springer, 2011. [2] Christophe Andrieu, Nando de Freitas, Arnaud Doucet, and Michael I. Jordan. An introduction to mcmc for machine learning. Machine Learning, 50(1-2):5?43, 2003. [3] Brenna D. Argall, Sonia Chernova, Manuela Veloso, and Brett Browning. A survey of robot learning from demonstration. Robot. Auton. Syst., 57(5):469?483, May 2009. [4] J M Bernardo. Expected information as expected utility. Annals of Statistics, 7(3):686?690, 1979. [5] Weiwei Cheng, Johannes F?urnkranz, Eyke H?ullermeier, and Sang-Hyeun Park. Preferencebased policy iteration: Leveraging preference learning for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 22nd European Conference on Machine Learning (ECML 2011), pages 312?327. Springer, 2011. [6] Wei Chu and Zoubin Ghahramani. Preference learning with gaussian processes. In Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on Machine learning, ICML ?05, pages 137?144, New York, NY, USA, 2005. ACM. [7] Thomas M. Cover and Joy A. Thomas. Elements of information theory. Wiley-Interscience, New York, NY, USA, 1991. [8] Simon Duane, A. D. Kennedy, Brian J. Pendleton, and Duncan Roweth. Hybrid monte carlo. Physics Letters B, 195(2):216 ? 222, 1987. [9] Yoav Freund, H. Sebastian Seung, Eli Shamir, and Naftali Tishby. Selective sampling using the query by committee algorithm. Machine Learning, 28(2-3):133?168, 1997. [10] Michail G. Lagoudakis, Ronald Parr, and L. Bartlett. Least-squares policy iteration. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4, 2003. [11] D. V. Lindley. On a Measure of the Information Provided by an Experiment. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 27(4):986?1005, 1956. [12] Andrew Y. Ng and Stuart J. Russell. Algorithms for inverse reinforcement learning. In ICML, pages 663?670, 2000. [13] Bob Price and Craig Boutilier. 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The Perturbed Variation Maayan Harel Department of Electrical Engineering Technion, Haifa, Israel [email protected] Shie Mannor Department of Electrical Engineering Technion, Haifa, Israel [email protected] Abstract We introduce a new discrepancy score between two distributions that gives an indication on their similarity. While much research has been done to determine if two samples come from exactly the same distribution, much less research considered the problem of determining if two ?nite samples come from similar distributions. The new score gives an intuitive interpretation of similarity; it optimally perturbs the distributions so that they best ?t each other. The score is de?ned between distributions, and can be ef?ciently estimated from samples. We provide convergence bounds of the estimated score, and develop hypothesis testing procedures that test if two data sets come from similar distributions. The statistical power of this procedures is presented in simulations. We also compare the score?s capacity to detect similarity with that of other known measures on real data. 1 Introduction The question of similarity between two sets of examples is common to many ?elds, including statistics, data mining, machine learning and computer vision. For example, in machine learning, a standard assumption is that the training and test data are generated from the same distribution. However, in some scenarios, such as Domain Adaptation (DA), this is not the case and the distributions are only assumed similar. It is quite intuitive to denote when two inputs are similar in nature, yet the following question remains open: given two sets of examples, how do we test whether or not they were generated by similar distributions? The main focus of this work is providing a similarity score and a corresponding statistical procedure that gives one possible answer to this question. Discrepancy between distributions has been studied for decades, and a wide variety of distance scores have been proposed. However, not all proposed scores can be used for testing similarity. The main dif?culty is that most scores have not been designed for statistical testing of similarity but equality, known as the Two-Sample Problem (TSP). Formally, let P and Q be the generating distributions of the data; the TSP tests the null hypothesis H0 : P = Q against the general alternative H1 : P ?= Q. This is one of the classical problems in statistics. However, sometimes, like in DA, the interesting question is with regards to similarity rather than equality. By design, most equality tests may not be transformed to test similarity; see Section 3 for a review of representative works. In this work, we quantify similarity using a new score, the Perturbed Variation (PV). We propose that similarity is related to some prede?ned value of permitted variations. Consider the gait of two male subjects as an example. If their physical characteristics are similar, we expect their walk to be similar, and thus assume the examples representing the two are from similar distributions. This intuition applies when the distribution of our measurements only endures small changes for people with similar characteristics. Put more generally, similarity depends on what ?small changes? are in a given application, and implies that similarity is domain speci?c. The PV, as hinted by its name, measures the discrepancy between two distributions while allowing for some perturbation of each distribution; that is, it allows small differences between the distributions. What accounts for small differences is a parameter of the PV, and may be de?ned by the user with regard to a speci?c domain. 1 Figure 1: X and O identify samples from two distributions, doted circles denote allowed perturbations. Samples marked in red are matched with neighbors, while the unmatched samples indicate the PV discrepancy. Figure 1 illustrates the PV. Note that, like perceptual similarity, the PV turns a blind eye to variations of some rate. 2 The Perturbed Variation The PV on continuous distributions is de?ned as follows: De?nition 1. Let P and Q be two distributions on a Banach space X , and let M (P, Q) be the set of all joint distributions on X ? X with marginals P and Q. The PV, with respect to a distance function d : X ? X ? R and ?, is de?ned by . PV(P, Q, ?, d) = inf ??M (P,Q) P? [d(X, Y ) > ?], (1) over all pairs (X, Y ) ? ?, such that the marginal of X is P and the marginal of Y is Q. Put into words, Equation (1) de?nes the joint distribution ? that couples the two distributions such that the probability of the event of a pair (X, Y ) ? ? being within a distance grater than ? is minimized. The solution to (1) is a special case of ? the classical mass transport problem of Monge [1] and its version by Kantorovich: inf ??M (P,Q) X ?X c(x, y)d?(x, y), where c : X ?X ? R is a measurable cost function. When c is a metric, the problem describes the 1st Wasserstein metric. Problem (1) may be rephrased as the optimal ??mass transport problem with the cost function c(x, y) = 1[d(x,y)>?] , 1[d(x,y)>?] ?(y|x)dy P (x)dx. The probability ?(y|x) de?nes the and may be rewritten as inf ? transportation plan of x to y. The PV optimal transportation plan is obtained by perturbing the mass of each point x in its ? neighborhood so that it redistributes to the distribution of Q. These small perturbations do not add any cost, while transportation of mass to further areas is equally costly. Note that when P = Q the PV is zero as the optimal plan is simply the identity mapping. Due to its cost function, the PV it is not a metric, as it is symmetric but does not comply with the triangle inequality and may be zero for distributions P ?= Q. Despite this limitation, this cost function fully quanti?es the intuition that small variations should not be penalized when similarity is considered. In this sense, similarity is not unique by de?nition, as more than one distribution can be similar to a reference distribution. The PV is also closely related to the Total Variation distance (TV) that may be written, using a coupling characterization, as T V (P, Q) = inf ??M (P,Q) P? [X ?= Y ] [2]. This formulation argues that any transportation plan, even to a close neighbor, is costly. Due to this property, the TV is known to be an overly sensitive measure that overestimates the distance between distributions. For example, consider two distributions de?ned by the dirac delta functions ?(a) and ?(a + ?). For any ?, the TV between the two distributions is 1, while they are intuitively similar. The PV resolves this problem by adding perturbations, and therefore is a natural extension of the TV. Notice, however, that the ? used to compute the PV need not be in?nitesimal, and is de?ned by the user. The PV can be seen as a conciliatory between the Wasserstein distance and the TV. As explained, it relaxes the sensitivity of the TV; however, it does not ?over optimize? the transportation plan. Specifically, distances larger than the allowed perturbation are discarded. This aspect also contributes to the ef?ciency of estimation of the PV from samples; see Section 2.2. 2 P V (?1 , ?2 , ?) = 12 : ? a1 = 0, a2 = 1, a3 = 2, a4 = 2.1 w1 = w2 = 14 , w3 = w4 = 0 v4 = 12 , v1 = v2 = v3 = 0 ? ? 0 0 0 0 1 ? 0 4 0 0 ? Z=? 0 0 0 14 ? 0 0 0 0 ?1 ?2 0.75 0.5 0.25 ?? 0 1 2 Figure 2.1: Illustration of the PV score between discrete distributions. 2.1 The Perturbed Variation on Discrete Distributions It can be shown that for two discrete distributions Problem (1) is equivalent to the following problem. De?nition 2. Let ?1 and ?2 be two discrete distributions on the uni?ed support {a1 , ..., aN }. De?ne the neighborhood of ai as ng(ai , ?) = {z ; d(z, ai ) ? ?}. The PV(?1 , ?2 , ?, d) between the two distributions is: N N 1? 1? wi + vj (2) min wi ?0,vi ?0,Zij ?0 2 2 j=1 i=1 ? Zij + wi = ?1 (ai ), ?i s.t. aj ?ng(ai ,?) ? ai ?ng(aj ,?) Zij + vj = ?2 (aj ), ?j Zij = 0 , ?(i, j) ?? ng(ai , ?). Each row in the matrix Z ? RN ?N corresponds to a point mass in ?1 , and each column to a point mass in ?2 . For each i, Z(i, :) is zero in columns corresponding to non neighboring elements, and non-zero only for columns j for which transportation between ?2 (aj ) ? ?1 (ai ) is performed. The discrepancies between the distributions are depicted by the scalars wi and vi that count the ?leftover? mass in ?1 (ai ) and ?2 (aj ). The objective is to minimize these discrepancies, therefore matrix Z describes the optimal transportation plan constrained to ?-perturbations. An example of an optimal plan is presented in Figure 2.1. 2.2 Estimation of the Perturbed Variation Typically, we are given samples from which we would like to estimate the PV. Given two samples S1 = {x1 , ..., xn } and S2 = {y1 , ..., ym }, generated by distributions P and Q respectively, ? 1 , S2 , ?, d) is: PV(S n m 1 ? 1 ? wi + vj (3) min wi ?0,vi ?0,Zij ?0 2n 2m j=1 i=1 ? ? Zij + wi = 1, Zij + vj = 1, ?i, j s.t. yj ?ng(xi ,?) Zij = 0 , xi ?ng(yj ,?) ?(i, j) ?? ng(xi , ?), where Z ? R . When n = m, the optimization in (3) is identical to (2), as in this case the samples de?ne a discrete distribution. However, when n ?= m Problem (3) also accounts for the difference in the size of the two samples. n?m Problem (3) is a linear program with constraints that may be written as a totally unimodular matrix. It follows that one of the optimal solutions of (3) is integral [3]; that is, the mass of each sample is transferred as a whole. This solution may be found by solving the optimal assignment on an appropriate bipartite graph [3]. Let G = (V = (A, B), E) de?ne this graph, with A = {xi , wi ; i = 1, ..., n} and B = {yj , vj ; j = 1, ..., m} as its bipartite partition. The vertices xi ? A are linked 3 ? 1 , S2 , ?, d) Algorithm 1 Compute PV(S Input: S1 = {x1 , ..., xn } and S2 = {y1 , ..., ym }, ? rate, and distance measure d. ? = {yj ? S2 }, ? = (V? = (A, ? B), ? E): ? A? = {xi ? S1 }, B 1. De?ne G ? if d(xi , yj ) ? ?. Connect an edge eij ? E ? 2. Compute the maximum matching on G. 3. De?ne Sw and Sv as number of unmatched edges in sets S1 and S2 respectively. ? Output: P V (S1 , S2 , ?, d) = 21 ( Snw + Smv ). with edge weight zero to yj ? ng(xi ) and with weight ? to yj ?? ng(xi ). In addition, every vertex xi (yj ) is linked with weight 1 to wi (vj ). To make the graph complete, assign zero cost edges between all vertices xi and wk for k ?= i (and vertices yj and vk for k ?= j). We note that the Earth Mover Distance (EMD) [4], a sampled version of the transportation problem, is also formulated by a linear program that may be solved by optimal assignment. For the EMD and other typical assignment problems, the computational complexity is more demanding, for example using the Hungarian algorithm it has an O(N 3 ) complexity, where N = n + m is the number of ver? is a simple bipartite graph for which maximum tices [5]. Contrarily, graph G, which describes PV, cardinality matching, a much simpler problem, can be applied to ?nd the optimal assignment. To ?nd the optimal assignment, ?rst solve the maximum matching on the partial graph between vertices xi , yj that have zero weight edges (corresponding to neighboring vertices). Then, assign vertices xi and yj for whom a match was not found with wi and vj respectively; see Algorithm 1 and Figure 1 for an illustration of a matching. It is easy to see that the solution obtained solves the assignment ? problem associated with PV. The complexity of Algorithm 1 amounts to the complexity of the maximal matching step and of setting up the graph, i.e., additional O(nm) complexity of computing distances between all points. Let k be the average number of neighbors of a sample, then the average number of edges in the ? ? bipartite ? graph G is |E| = n ? k. The maximal cardinality matching of this graph is obtained in O(kn (n + m)) steps, in the worst case [5]. 3 Related Work Many scores have been de?ned for testing discrepancy between distributions. We focus on representative works for nonparametric tests that are most related to our work. First, we consider statistics for the Two Sample Problem (TSP), i.e., equality testing, that are based on the asymptotic distribution of the statistic conditioned on the equality. Among these tests is the well known Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (for one dimensional distributions), and its generalization to higher dimensions by minimal spanning trees [6]. A different statistic is de?ned by the portion of k-nearest neighbors of each sample that belongs to different distributions; larger portions mean the distributions are closer [7]. These scores are well known in the statistical literature but cannot be easily changed to test similarity, as their analysis relies on testing equality. As discussed earlier, the 1st Wasserstein metric and the TV metric have some relation to the PV. The EMD and histogram based L1 distance are the sample based estimates of these metrics respectively. In both cases, the distance is not estimated directly on the samples, but on a higher level partition of the space: histogram bins or signatures (cluster centers). It is impractical to use the EMD to estimate the Wasserstein metric between the continuous distributions, as convergence would require the number of bins to be exponentially dependent on the dimension. As a result, it is commonly used to rate distances and not for statistical testing. Contrarily, the PV is estimated directly on the samples and converges to its value between the underlying continuous distributions. We note that after a good choice of signatures, the EMD captures perceptual similarity, similar to that of the PV. It is possible to consider the PV as a re?nement of the EMD notion of similarity; instead of clustering the data to signatures and moving the signatures, it perturbs each sample. In this manner, it captures a ?ner notion of similarity better suited for statistical testing. 4 12 12 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 (a) PV(? = 0.1) = 0 2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 (b) PV(? = 0.1) = 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 (c) PV(? = 0.1) = 1 Figure 2: Two distributions on R: The PV captures the perceptual similarity of (a),(b) against the disimilarity in (c). The L11 = 1 on I1 = {(0, 0.1), (0.1, 0.2), ...} for all cases; on I2 = {(0, 0.2), (0.2, 0.4), ...} it is L21 (Pa , Qa ) = 0, L21 (Pb , Qb ) = 1, L21 (Pc , Qc ) = 1; and on I3 = {(0, 0.3), (0.3, 0.6), ...} it is L31 (Pa , Qa ) = 0, L31 (Pb , Qb ) = 0, L31 (Pc , Qc ) = 0. The partition of the support to bins allows some relaxation of the TV notion. Therefore, instead of the TV, it may be interesting to consider the L1 as a similarity distance on the measures after discretization. The example in Figure (2) shows that this relaxation is quite rigid and that there is no single partition that captures the perceptual similarity. In general, the problem would remain even if bins with varying width were permitted. Namely, the problem is the choice of a single partition to measure similarity of a reference distribution to multiple distributions, while choosing multiple partitions would make the distances incomparable. Also note that de?ning a ?good? partition is a dif?cult task, which is exasperated in higher dimensions. The last group of statistics are scores established in machine learning: the dA distance presented by Kifer et al. that is based on the maximum discrepancy on a chosen subset of the support [8], and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) by Gretton et al., which de?ne discrepancy after embeddings the distributions to a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS)[9]. These scores have corresponding statistical tests for the TSP; however, since their analysis is based on ?nite convergence bounds, in principle they may be modi?ed to test similarity. The dA captures some intuitive notion of similarity, however, to our knowledge, it is not known how to compute it for a general subset class 1 . The MMD captures the distance between the samples in some RKHS. The MMD may be used to de?ne a similarity test, yet this would require de?ning two parameters, ? and the similarity rate, whose dependency is not intuitive. Namely, for any similarity rate the result of the test is highly dependent on the choice of ?, but it is not clear how it should be made. Contrarily, the PV?s parameter ? is related to the data?s input domain and may be chosen accordingly. 4 Analysis We present sample rate convergence analysis of the PV. The proofs of the theorems are provided in the supplementary material. When no clarity is lost, we omit d from the notation. Our main theorem is stated as follows: Theorem 3. Suppose we are given two i.i.d. samples S1 = {x1 , ..., xn } ? Rd and S2 = {y1 , ..., ym } ? Rd generated by distributions P and Q, respectively. Let the ground distance be d = ? ? ?? and let N (?) be the cardinality of?a disjoint cover of the distributions? support. Then, N (?) ?2))+log(1/?)) we have that for any ? ? (0, 1), N = min(n, m), and ? = 2(log(2(2 N ? ? ?? ?? ? P ?PV (S1 , S2 , ?) ? PV (P, Q, ?)? ? ? ? 1 ? ?. The theorem is de?ned using ? ? ?? , but can be rewritten for other metrics (with a slight change of constants). The proof of the theorem exploits the form of the optimization Problem 3. We use the bound of Theorem 3 construct hypothesis tests. A weakness of this bound is its strong dependency on the dimension. Speci?cally, it is dependent on N (?), which for ???? is O((1/?)d ): the number of disjoint boxes of volume ?d that cover the support. Unfortunately, this convergence rate is inherent; namely, without making any further assumptions on the distribution, this rate is unavoidable and is an instance of the ?curse of dimensionality?. In the following theorem, we present a lower bound on the convergence rate. 1 Most work with the dA has been with the subset of characteristic functions, and approximated by the error of a classi?er. 5 Theorem 4. Let P = Q be the uniform distribution on Sd?1 , a unit (d ? 1)?dimensional hypersphere. Let S1 = {x1 , ..., xN } ? P and S2 = {y1 , ..., yN } ? Q be two i.i.d. samples. For any ?, ?? , ? ? (0, 1), 0 ? ? < 2/3 and sample size P V (P, Q, ?? ) = 0 and log(1/?) 2(1?3?/2)2 ? (S1 , S2 , ?) > ?) ? 1 ? ?. P(PV ? N ? 2 ? d(1? ?2 )/2 , 2e we have (4) 2 ? ? > 0.5 with For example, for ? = 0.01, ? = 0.5, for any 37 ? N ? 0.25ed(1? 2 )/2 we have that PV probability at least 0.99. The theorem shows that, for this choice of distributions, for a sample size ? is far form PV. that is smaller than O(ed ), there is a high probability that the value of PV ? is stable, that is, it is almost identical for two It can be observed that the empirical estimate PV data sets differing on one sample. Due to its stability, applying McDiarmid inequality yields the following. Theorem 5. Let S1 = {x1 , ..., xn } ? P and S2 = {y1 , ..., ym } ? Q be two i.i.d. samples. Let n ? m, then for any ? > 0 ? ? ? (S1 , S2 , ?) ? E[PV ? (n, m, ?)]| ? ? ? e??2 m2 /4n , P |PV ? (n, m, ?)] is the expectation of PV ? for a given sample size. where E[PV This theorem shows that the sample estimate of the PV converges to its expectation without dependence on the dimension. By combining this result with Theorem 3 it may be deduced that only the ? convergence of the bias ? the difference |E[PV(n, m, ?)] ? PV(P, Q, ?)| ? may be exponential in the dimension. This convergence is distribution dependent. However, intuitively, slow convergence is not always the case, for example when the support of the distributions lies in a lower dimensional manifold of the space. To remedy this dependency we propose a bootstrapping bias correcting technique, presented in Section 5. A different possibility is to project the data to one dimension; due to space limitations, this extension of the PV is left out of the scope of this paper and presented in Appendix A.2 in the supplementary material. 5 Statistical Inference We construct two types of complementary procedures for hypothesis testing of similarity and dissimilarity2 . In the ?rst type of procedures, given 0 ? ? < 1, we distinguish between the null (1) hypothesis H0 : PV(P, Q, ?, d) ? ?, which implies similarity, and the alternative hypothesis (1) H1 : PV(P, Q, ?, d) > ?. Notice that when ? = 0, this test is a relaxed version of the TSP. Using PV(P, Q) = 0 instead of P = Q as the null, allows for some distinction between the distributions, which gives the needed relaxation to capture similarity. In the second type of procedures, we test whether two distributions are similar. To do so, we ?ip the role of the null and the alternative. Note that there isn?t an equivalent of this form for the TSP, therefore we can not infer similarity using the TSP test, but only reject equality. Our hypothesis tests are based on the ?nite sample analysis presented in Section 4; see Appendix A.1 in the supplementary material for the procedures. To provide further inference on the PV, we apply bootstrapping for approximations of Con?dence Intervals (CI). The idea of bootstrapping for estimating CIs is based on a two step procedure: approximation of the sampling distribution of the statistic by resampling with replacement from the initial sample ? the bootstrap stage ? following, a computation of the CI based on the resulting distribution. We propose to estimate the CI by Bootstrap Bias-Corrected accelerated (BCa) interval, which adjusts the simple percentile method to correct for bias and skewness [10]. The BCa is known for its high accuracy; particularly, it can be shown, that the BCa interval converges to the theoretical CI with rate O(N ?1 ), where N is the sample size. Using the CI, a hypothesis test may be formed: (1) the null H0 is rejected with signi?cance ? if the range [0, ?] ?? [CI, CI]. Also, for the second test, we apply the principle of CI inclusion [11], which states that if [CI, CI] ? [0, ?], dissimilarity is rejected and similarity deduced. 2 The two procedures are distinct, as, in general, lacking evidence to reject similarity is not suf?cient to infer dissimilarity, and vice versa. 6 Type?2 error 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2 10 1 6.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 3 10 Sample size 10 0.5 0 PV MMD FR KNN 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 Recall 0.6 0.8 (a) The Type-2 error for varying (b) Precision-Recall: Gait data. perturbation sizes and ? values. 6 1 PV MMD FR KNN 0.9 Precision ?=0.1 ?=0.2 ?=0.3 ?=0.4 ?=0.5 Precision 1 0.8 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Recall 1 (c) Precision-Recall: Video clips. Experiments Synthetic Simulations In our ?rst experiment, we examine the effect of the choice of ? on the statistical power of the test. For this purpose, we apply signi?cance testing for similarity on two univariate uniform distributions: P ? U [0, 1] and Q ? U [?(?), 1 + ?(?)], where ?(?) is a varying size of perturbation. We considered values of ? = [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5] and sample sizes up to 5000 samples from each (1) distribution. For each value ?? , we test the null hypothesis H0 : P V (P, Q, ?? ) = 0 for ten equally ? ? spaced values of ?(? ) in the range [0, 2? ]. In this manner, we test the ability of the PV to detect similarity for different sizes of perturbations. The percentage of times the null hypothesis was falsely rejected, i.e. the type-1 error, was kept at a signi?cance level ? = 0.05. The percentage of times the null hypothesis was correctly rejected, the power of the test, was estimated as a function of the sample size and averaged over 500 repetitions. We repeated the simulation using the tests based on the bounds as well as using BCa con?dence intervals. The results in Figure (3(a)) show the type-2 error of the bound based simulations. As expected, the power of the test increases as the sample size grows. Also, when ?ner perturbations need to be detected, more samples are needed to gain statistical power. For the BCa CI we obtained type-1 and type-2 errors smaller than 0.05 for all the sample sizes. This shows that the convergence of the estimated PV to its value is clearly faster than the bounds. Note that, given a suf?cient sample size, any statistic for the TSP would have rejected similarity for any ? > 0. 6.2 Comparing Distance Measures Next, we test the ability of the PV to measure similarity on real data. To this end, we test the ranking performance of the PV score against other known distributional distances. We compare the PV to the multivariate extension of the Wald-Wolfowitz score of Friedman & Rafsky (FR) [6] , Schilling?s nearest neighbors score (KNN) [7], and the Maximum Mean Discrepancy score of Gretton et al. [9] (MMD)3 . We rank similarity for the applications of video retrieval and gait recognition. The ranking performance of the methods was measured by precision-recall curves, and the Mean Average Precision (MAP). Let r be the number of samples similar to a query sample. For each similarity rank, where T is the total 1 ? i ? r of these observations, de?ne ri ? [1, T ? 1] as its ? number of observations. The Average Precision is: AP = 1/r i i/ri , and the MAP is the average of the AP over the queries. The tuning parameter for the methods ? k for the KNN, ? for the MMD (with RBF kernel), and ? for the PV ? were chosen by cross-validation. The Euclidian distance was used in all methods. In our ?rst experiment, we tested raking for video-clip retrieval. The data we used was collected and generated by [12], and includes 1,083 videos of commercials, each of about 1,500 frames (25 fps). Twenty unique videos were selected as query videos, each of which has one similar clip in 3 Note that the statistical tests of these measures test equality while the PV tests similarity and therefore our experiments are not of statistical power but of ranking similarity. Even in the case of the distances that may be transformed for similarity, like the MMD, there is no known function between the PV similarity to other forms of similarity. As a result, there is no basis on which to compare which similarity test has better performance. 7 Table 1: MAP for Auslan, Video, and Gait data sets. Average MAP (? standard deviation) computed on a random selection of 75% of the queries, repeated 100 times. ? DATA SET PV KNN MMD FR V IDEO 0.758 ?0.009 0.741 ?0.014 0.689 ? 0.008 0.563 ? 0.019 G AIT 0.792?0.021 0.736 ? 0.014 0.722 ? 0.017 0.698 ? 0.017 0.844?0.017 0.750 ? 0.015 0.729 ? 0.017 0.666 ? 0.016 G AIT-F G AIT-M 0.679 ? 0.024 0.712 ? 0.017 0.716 ? 0.031 0.799 ?0.016 the collection, to which 8 more similar clips were generated by different transformations: brightness increased/decreased, saturation increased/decreased, borders cropped, logo inserted, randomly dropped frames, and added noise frames. Lastly, each frame of a video was transformed to a 32RGB representation. We computed the similarity rate for each query video to all videos in the set, and ranked the position of each video. The results show that the PV and the KNN score are invariant to most of the transformations, and outperform the FR and MMD methods (Table 1 and Figure 3(c)). We found that brightness changes were most problematic for the PV. For this type of distortion, the simple RGB representation is not suf?cient to capture the similarity. We also tested gait similarity of female and male subjects; same gender samples are assumed similar. We used gait data that was recorded by a mobile phone, available at [13]. The data consists of two sets of 15min walks of 20 individuals, 10 women and 10 men. As features we used the magnitude of the triaxial accelerometer.We cut the raw data to intervals of approximately 0.5secs, without identi?cation of gait cycles. In this manner, each walk is represented by a collection of about 1500 intervals. An initial scaling to [0,1] was performed once for the whole set. The comparison was done by ranking by gender the 39 samples with respect to a reference walk. The precision-recall curves in Figure 3(b) show that the PV is able to retrieve with higher precision in the mid-recall range. For the early recall points the PV did not show optimal performance; Interestingly, we found that with a smaller ?, the PV had better performance on early recall points. This behavior re?ects the ?exibility of the PV: smaller ? should be chosen when the goal is to ?nd very similar instances, and larger when the goal is to ?nd higher level similarity. The MAP results presented in Table 1 show that the PV had better performance on the female subjects. From examination of the subject information sheet we found that the range of weight and hight within the female group is 50-77Kg and 1.6-1.8m, while within the male group it is 47-100Kg and 1.65-1.93m; that is, there is much more variability in the male group. This information provides a reasonable explanation to the PV results, as it appears that a subject from the male group may have a gait that is as dissimilar to the gait of a female subject as it is to a different male. In the female group the subjects are more similar and therefore the precision is higher. 7 Discussion We proposed a new score that measures the similarity between two multivariate distributions, and assigns to it a value in the range [0,1]. The sensitivity of the score, re?ected by the parameter ?, allows for ?exibility that is essential for quantifying the notion of similarity. The PV is ef?ciently estimated from samples. Its low computational complexity relies on its simple binary classi?cation of points as neighbors or non-neighbor points, such that optimization of distances of faraway points is not needed. In this manner, the PV captures only the essential information to describe similarity. Although it is not a metric, our experiments show that it captures the distance between similar distributions as well as well known distributional distances. Our work also includes convergence analysis of the PV. Based on this analysis we provide hypothesis tests that give statistical signi?cance to the resulting score. While our bounds are dependent on the dimension, when the intrinsic dimension of the data is smaller than the domains dimension, statistical power can be gained by bootstrapping. In addition, the PV has an intuitive interpretation that makes it an attractive score for a meaningful statistical testing of similarity. Lastly, an added value of the PV is that its computation also gives insight to the areas of discrepancy; namely, the areas of the unmatched samples. In future work we plan to further explore this information, which may be valuable on its own merits. Acknowledgements This Research was supported in part by the Israel Science Foundation (grant No. 920/12). 8 References [1] G. Monge. M?emoire sur la th?eorie des d?eblais et de remblais. Histoire de l?Academie Royale des Sciences de Paris, avec les Memoires de Mathematique et de Physique pour la meme annee, 1781. [2] L. R?uschendorf. Monge?kantorovich transportation problem and optimal couplings. Jahresbericht der DMV, 3:113?137, 2007. [3] A. Schrijver. Theory of linear and integer programming. John Wiley & Sons Inc, 1998. [4] Y. Rubner, C. Tomasi, and L.J. Guibas. A metric for distributions with applications to image databases. In Computer Vision, 1998. Sixth International Conference on, pages 59?66. IEEE, 1998. [5] R.K. Ahuja, L. Magnanti, and J.B. Orlin. Network Flows: Theory, Algorithms, and Applications, chapter 12, pages 469?473. Prentice Hall, 1993. [6] J.H. Friedman and L.C. Rafsky. Multivariate generalizations of the Wald-Wolfowitz and Smirnov two-sample tests. Annals of Statistics, 7:697?717, 1979. [7] M.F. Schilling. Multivariate two-sample tests based on nearest neighbors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 799?806, 1986. [8] D. Kifer, S. Ben-David, and J. Gehrke. Detecting change in data streams. In Proceedings of the Thirtieth international conference on Very large data bases, pages 180?191. VLDB Endowment, 2004. [9] A. Gretton, K. Borgwardt, B. Sch?olkopf, M. Rasch, and E. Smola. A kernel method for the two sample problem. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, 2007. [10] B. Efron and R. Tibshirani. An introduction to the bootstrap, chapter 14, pages 178?188. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1993. [11] S. Wellek. Testing Statistical Hypotheses of Equivalence and Noninferiority; 2nd edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2010. [12] J. Shao, Z. Huang, H. Shen, J. Shen, and X. Zhou. Distribution-based similarity measures for multi-dimensional point set retrieval applications. In Proceeding of the 16th ACM international conference on Multimedia MM 08, 2008. [13] J. Frank, S. Mannor, and D. Precup. Data sets: Mobile phone gait recognition data, 2010. [14] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization, chapter 5, pages 258?261. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2004. [15] T. Weissman, E. Ordentlich, G. Seroussi, S. Verdu, and M.J. Weinberger. Inequalities for the l1 deviation of the empirical distribution. Hewlett-Packard Labs, Tech. Rep, 2003. 9
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Multi-task Vector Field Learning 1 2 1 2 1 Binbin Lin Sen Yang Chiyuan Zhang Jieping Ye Xiaofei He 1 State Key Lab of CAD&CG, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China {binbinlinzju, chiyuan.zhang.zju, xiaofeihe}@gmail.com 2 The Biodesign Institute, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287 {senyang, jieping.ye}@asu.edu Abstract Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to improve generalization performance by learning multiple related tasks simultaneously and identifying the shared information among tasks. Most of existing MTL methods focus on learning linear models under the supervised setting. We propose a novel semi-supervised and nonlinear approach for MTL using vector fields. A vector field is a smooth mapping from the manifold to the tangent spaces which can be viewed as a directional derivative of functions on the manifold. We argue that vector fields provide a natural way to exploit the geometric structure of data as well as the shared differential structure of tasks, both of which are crucial for semi-supervised multi-task learning. In this paper, we develop multi-task vector field learning (MTVFL) which learns the predictor functions and the vector fields simultaneously. MTVFL has the following key properties. (1) The vector fields MTVFL learns are close to the gradient fields of the predictor functions. (2) Within each task, the vector field is required to be as parallel as possible which is expected to span a low dimensional subspace. (3) The vector fields from all tasks share a low dimensional subspace. We formalize our idea in a regularization framework and also provide a convex relaxation method to solve the original non-convex problem. The experimental results on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. 1 Introduction In many applications, labeled data are expensive and time consuming to obtain while unlabeled data are abundant. The problem of using unlabeled data to improve the generalization performance is often referred to as semi-supervised learning (SSL). It is well known that in order to make semisupervised learning work, some assumptions on the dependency between the predictor function and the marginal distribution of data are needed. The manifold assumption [15, 5], which has been widely adopted in the last decade, states that the predictor function lives in a low dimensional manifold of the marginal distribution. Multi-task learning was proposed to enhance the generalization performance by learning multiple related tasks simultaneously. The abundant literature on multi-task learning demonstrates that the learning performance indeed improves when the tasks are related [4, 6, 7]. The key step in MTL is to find the shared information among tasks. Evgeniou et al. [12] proposed a regularization MTL framework which assumes all tasks are related and close to each other. Ando and Zhang [2] proposed a structural learning framework, which assumed multiple predictors for different tasks shared a common structure on the underlying predictor space. An alternating structure optimization (ASO) method was proposed for linear predictors which assumed the task parameters shared a low dimensional subspace. Arvind et al. [1] generalized the idea of sharing a subspace by assuming that all task parameters lie on a manifold. 1 (a) A parallel field on R2 (b) A parallel field on Swiss roll Figure 1: Examples of parallel fields. The parallel field on R2 spans a one dimensional subspace and the parallel field on the Swiss roll spans a two dimensional subspace. In this paper, we consider semi-supervised multi-task learning (SSMTL). Although many SSL methods have been proposed in the literature [10], these methods are often not directly amenable to MTL extensions [18]. Liu et al. [18] proposed an SSMTL framework which encouraged related models to have similar parameters. However they require that related tasks share similar representations [9]. Wang et al. [19] proposed another SSMTL method under the assumption that the tasks are clustered [4, 14]. The cluster structure is characterized by task parameters of linear predictor functions. For linear predictors, the task parameters they used are actually the constant gradient of the predictor functions which form a first order differential structure. For general nonlinear predictor functions, we show it is more natural to capture the shared differential structure using vector fields. In this paper, we propose a novel SSMTL formulation using vector fields. A vector field is a smooth mapping from the manifold to the tangent spaces which can be viewed as a directional derivative of functions on the manifold. In this way, a vector field naturally characterizes the differential structure of functions while also providing a natural way to exploit the geometric structure of data; these are the two most important aspects for SSMTL. Based on this idea, we develop the multi-task vector field learning (MTVFL) method which learns the prediction functions and the vector fields simultaneously. The vector fields we learned are forced to be close to the gradient fields of predictor functions. In each task, the vector field is required to be as parallel as possible. We say that a vector field is parallel if the vectors are parallel along the geodesics on the manifold. In extreme cases, when the manifold is a linear (or an affine) space, then the geodesics of such manifold are straight lines. In such cases, the space spanned by these parallel vectors is a simply one-dimensional subspace. Thus when the manifold is flat (i.e., with zero curvature) or the curvature is small, it is expected that these parallel vectors concentrate on a low dimensional subspace. As an example, we can see from Fig. 1 that the parallel field on the plane spans a one-dimensional subspace and the parallel field on the Swiss roll spans a two-dimensional subspace. For the multi-task case, these vector fields share a low dimensional subspace. In addition, we assume these vector fields share a low dimensional subspace among all tasks. In essence, we use a first-order differential structure to characterize the shared structure of tasks and use a second-order differential structure to characterize the specific parts of tasks. We formalize our idea in a regularization framework and provide a convex relaxation method to solve the original non-convex problem. We have performed experiments using both synthetic and real data; results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. 2 Multi-task Learning: A Vector Field Approach In this section, we first introduce vector fields and then present multi-task learning via exploring shared structure using vector fields. 2.1 Multi-task Learning Setting and Vector Fields We first introduce notation and symbols. We are givenPm tasks, with nl samples xli , i = 1, . . . , nl for  l the l-th task. The total number of samples is n = l nl . For the l-th task, we assume the data xi are on a dl -dimensional manifold Ml . All of these data manifolds are embedded in the same 2 D-dimensional ambient space RD . It is worth noting that the dimensions of different data manifolds are not required to be the same. Without loss of generality, we assume the first n0l (n0l < nl ) samples 0 l are labeled, with yjl ? R for regression P and0 yj ? {?1, 1} for classification, j = 1, . . . , nl . The total 0 number of labeled samples is n = l nl . For the l-th task, we denote the regression function or classification function by fl? . The goal of semi-supervised multi-task learning is to learn the function value on unlabeled data, i.e., fl? (xli ), n0l + 1 ? i ? nl . Given the l-th task, we first construct a nearest neighbor graph by either -neighborhood or k nearest l neighbors. Let xli ? xlj denote that xli and xlj are neighbors. Let wij denote the weight which l l measures the similarity between xi and xj . It can be approximated by the heat kernel weight or the simple 0-1 weight. For each point xli , we estimate its tangent space Txli M by performing PCA on its neighborhood. We choose the largest dl eigenvectors as the bases since the tangent space Txli M has the same dimension as the manifold Ml . Let Til ? RD?dl be the matrix whose columns constitute T an orthonormal basis for Txli M. It is easy to show that Pil = Til Til is the unique orthogonal projection from RD onto the tangent space Txli M [13]. That is, for any vector a ? Rm , we have Pil a ? Txli M and (a ? Pil a) ? Pil a. We now formally define the vector field and show how to represent it in the discrete case. Definition 2.1 ([16]). A vector field X on the manifold M is a continuous map X : M ? T M where T M is the set of tangent spaces, written as p 7? Xp , with the property that for each p ? M, Xp is an element of Tp M. We can think of a vector field on the manifold as an arrow in the same way as we think of the vector field in the Euclidean space, with a given magnitude and direction attached to each point on the manifold, and chosen to be tangent to the manifold. A vector field V on the manifold is called a gradient field if there exists a function f on the manifold such that ?f = V where ? is the covariant derivative on the manifold. Therefore, gradient fields are one kind of vector fields. It plays a critical role in connecting vector fields and functions. Let Vl be a vector field on the manifold Ml . For each point xli , let Vxli denote the value of the vector field Vl at xli . Recall the definition of vector field, Vxli should be a vector in the tangent space Txli Ml . Therefore, we can represent it by the coordinates of the tangent space Txli Ml as Vxli = Til vil , where vil ? Rdl is the local representation of Vxli with respect of Til . Let fl be a function on the manifold Ml . By abusing the notation without confusion, we also use fl to denote the vector   T T T fl = (fl (x1l ), . . . , fl (xlnl ))T and use Vl to denote the vector Vl = v1l , . . . , vnl l ? Rdl nl . That is, Vl is a dl nl -dimensional big column vector which concatenates all the vil ?s for a fixed l. Then for each task, we aim to compute the vector fl and the vector Vl . 2.2 Multi-task Vector Field Learning In this section, we introduce multi-task vector field learning (MTVFL). Many existing MTL methods capture the task relatedness by sharing task parameters. For linear predictors, the task parameters they used are actually the constant gradient vectors of the predictor functions. For general nonlinear predictor functions, we show it is natural to capture the shared T T differential structure using vector fields. Let f denote the vector (f1T , . . . , fm ) and V denote the mT T T T T 1T vector (V1 , . . . , Vm ) = (v1 , . . . , vnl ) . We propose to learn f and V simultaneously: ? The vector field Vl should be close to the gradient field ?fl of fl , which can be formularized as follows: m m Z X X min R1 (f, V ) = R1 (fl , Vl ) := k?fl ? Vl k2 . (1) f,V l=1 Ml l=1 ? The vector field Vl should be as parallel as possible: m m Z X X min R2 (V ) = R2 (Vl ) := V l=1 l=1 3 Ml k?Vl k2HS , (2) where ? is the covariant derivative on the manifold, where k ? kHS denotes the HilbertSchmidt tensor norm [11]. ?Vl measures the change of the vector field, therefore minimizR ing Ml k?Vl k2HS enforces the vector field Vl to be parallel. ? All vector fields share an h-dimensional subspace where h is a predefined parameter: Til vil = uli + ?T wil , s.t. ??T = Ih?h . (3) Since these vector fields are assumed to share a low dimensional space, it is expected that the residual vector uli is small. We define another term R3 to control the complexity as follows: R3 (vil , wil , ?) = = nl m X X l=1 i=1 nl m X X ?kuli k2 + ?kTil vil k2 (4) ?kTil vil ? ?T wil k2 + ?kTil vil k2 . (5) l=1 i=1 Note that ? and ? are pre-specified coefficients, indicating the importance of the corresponding regularization component. Since we would like the vector field to be parallel, the vector norm is not expected to be too small. Besides, we assume the vector fields share a low dimensional subspace, the residual vector uli is expected to be small. In practice we suggest to use a small ? and a large ?. By setting ? = 0, R3 will reduce to the regularization term proposed in ASO if we also replace the tangent vectors by the task parameters. Therefore, this formulation is a generalization of ASO. ? It can be verified that wil = ?Til vil = arg minwil R3 (vil , wil , ?). Thus we have uli = Til vil ? ?T wil = (I ? ?T ?)Til vil . Therefore, we can rewrite R3 as follows: R3 (V, ?) = nl m X X ?kuli k2 + ?kTil vil k2 l=1 i=1 = = nl m X X ?k(I ? ?T ?)Til vil k2 + ?kTil vil k2 l=1 i=1 ?V T A? V  (6) + ?V T HV, T where H is a block diagonal matrix with the diagonal blocks being Til Til , and A? is another block T T diagonal matrix with the diagonal blocks being Til (I ??T ?)T (I ??T ?)Til = Til (I ??T ?)Til . Therefore, the proposed formulation solves the following optimization problem: arg min E(f, V, ?) = R0 (f ) + ?1 R1 (f, V ) + ?2 R2 (V ) + ?3 R3 (V, ?) s.t. ??T = Ih?h , (7) f,V,? where R0 (f ) is the loss function. For simplicity, we use the quadratic loss function R0 (f ) = Pm Pn0l l l 2 i=1 (fl (xi ) ? yi ) . l=1 2.3 Objective Function in the Matrix Form To simplify Eq. (7), in this section we rewrite our objective function in the matrix form. Using the discrete methods in [17], we have the following discrete form equations: X 2 l R1 (fl , Vl ) = wij (xlj ? xli )T Til vil ? fjl + fil , (8) i?j R2 (fl , Vl ) = X 2 l l l l wij Pi Tj vj ? Til vil . (9) i?j Interestingly, with some algebraic transformations, we have the following matrix forms for our objective functions: R1 (fl , Vl ) = 2flT Ll fl + VlT Gl Vl ? 2VlT Cl fl , (10) 4 where Ll is the graph Laplacian matrix, Gl is a dl nl ? dl nl block diagonal matrix, and Cl = T T [C1l , . . . , Cnl ]T is a dl nl ? nl block matrix. Denote the i-th dl ? dl diagonal block of Gl by Glii and the i-th dl ? nl block of Cl by Cil , we have X X T l l Glii = wij (xlj ? xli )(xlj ? xli )T , Cil = wij (xlj ? xli )slij , (11) j?i slij j?i nl where ? R is a selection vector of all zero elements except for the i-th element being ?1 and the j-th element being 1. And R2 becomes R2 (Vl ) = VlT Bl Vl , (12) where Bl is a dl nl ? dl nl sparse block matrix. If we index each dl ? dl block by X T l l Bii = wij (Qlij Qlij + I), l Bij , then we have (13) j?i ( l Bij = l ?2wij Qlij , if xi ? xj 0, otherwise , (14) T where Qlij = Til Tjl . It is worth nothing that both R1 and R2 depend on tangent spaces Til . Thus we can further write R1 (f, V ) and R2 (V ) as follows R1 (f, V ) R2 (V ) = = m X l=1 m X R1 (fl , Vl ) = 2f T Lf + V T GV ? 2V T Cf, (15) R2 (Vl ) = V T BV, (16) l=1 where L, G and B are block diagonal matrices with the corresponding l-th block matrix being Ll , Gl and Bl , respectively. C is a column block matrix with the l-th block matrix being Cl . Let I denote an n ? n diagonal matrix where Iii = 1 if the corresponding i-th data is labeled and Iii = 0 otherwise. And let y ? Rn be a column vector whose i-th element is the corresponding label of the i-th labeled data and 0 otherwise. Then R0 (f ) = n10 (f ? y)T I(f ? y). Finally, we get the following matrix form for our objective function in Eq. (7) with the constraint ??T = Ih?h as: E(f, V, ?) = R0 (f ) + ?1 R1 (f, V ) + ?2 R2 (V ) + ?3 R3 (V, ?) 1 = (f ? y)T I(f ? y) + ?1 (2f T Lf + V T GV ? 2V T Cf ) + ?2 V T BV + ?3 V T (?A? + ?H)V n0 1 (f ? y)T I(f ? y) + 2?1 f T Lf + V T (?1 G + ?2 B + ?3 (?A? + ?H))V ? 2?1 V T Cf. = n0 It is worth noting that matrices L, G, B, C depend on data, and only the matrix A? is related to ?. 3 Optimization In this section, we discuss how to solve the following optimization problem: arg min E(f, V, ?), s.t. ??T = Ih?h . (17) f,V,? We use the alternating optimization to solve this problem. ? Optimization of f and V . For a fixed ?, the optimal f and V can be obtained via solving arg min E(f, V, ?). (18) f,V ? Optimization of ?. For a fixed V , the optimal ? can be obtained via solving. arg min R3 (V, ?), ? 5 s.t. ??T = Ih?h . (19) 3.1 Optimization of f and V for a Given ? When ? is fixed, the objective function is similar to that of the single task case. However, there are some differences we would like to mention. Firstly, when constructing the nearest neighbor graph, data points from different tasks are disconnected. Therefore when estimating tangent spaces, data points from different tasks are independent. Secondly, we do not require the dimension of tangent spaces from each task to be the same. We note that  ?E ?f ?E ?V  1 1 I + 2? L f ? 2?1 C T V ? 2 0 y, 1 n0 n = 2 = ?2?1 Cf + 2(?1 G + ?2 H + ?3 (?A? + ?H))V. (20) (21) Requiring the derivatives to be vanish, we get the following linear system    1  1 f ??1 C T y n0 I + 2?1 L = n0 . (22) V ??1 C ?1 G + ?2 B + ?3 (?A? + ?H) 0 Except for the matrix A? , all other matrices can be computed in advance and will not change during the iterative process. 3.2 Optimization of ? for a Given V Since functions R0 (f ), R1 (f, V ) and R2 (V ) are not related to the variable ?, we only need to optimize R3 (V, ?) subject to ??T = Ih?h . Recall Eq. (6), we rewrite R3 (V, ?) as follows:   nl m X X ? l l 2 T l l 2 ? ? k(I ? ? ?)Ti vi k + kTi vi k ? = arg min ? ? l=1 i=1   ? = arg min ? tr VT ((1 + )I ? ?T ?)V ? ? (23) arg max tr(?VVT ?T ), = ? 1 1 m m (T1 v1 , . . . , Tnm vnm ) is a D ? n matrix with each column being a tangent vector. The where V = ? can be obtained by using singular value decomposition (SVD). Let V = Z1 ?Z T be the optimal ? 2 SVD of V and we assume that the singular values are in a decreasing order in ?. Then the rows of ? are given by the first h columns of Z1 . ? 3.3 Convex Relaxation The orthogonality constraint in Eq. (23) is non-convex. Next, we propose to convert Eq. (23) into a convex formulation by relaxing its feasible domain into a convex set. Let ? = ?/?. It can be verified that the following equality holds: (1 + ?)I ? ?T ? = ?(1 + ?)(?I + ?T ?)?1 . Then we can rewrite R3 (V, ?) as R3 (V, ?) = ??(1 + ?) tr VT (?I + ?T ?)?1 V . Let Me be defined as Me = {M : M = ?T ?, ??T = I, ? ? Rh?d }. The convex hull [8] of Me can be expressed as the convex set Mc given by Mc = {M : tr(M ) = h, M  I, M ? Sd+ } and each element in Me is referred to as an extreme point of Mc . To convert the non-convex problem Eq. (23) into a convex formulation, we replace ?T ? with M , and naturally relax its feasible domain into a convex set based on the relationship between Me and Mc presented above; this results in an optimization problem as arg min R3 (V, M ), ? s.t. , tr(M ) = h, M  I, M ? Sd+ , (24)  where R3 (V, M ) is defined as R3 (V, M ) = ??(1 + ?) tr VT (?I + M )?1 V . It follows from [3, Theorem 3.1] that the relaxed R3 is jointly convex in V and M . After we obtain the optimal M , the optimal ? can be approximated using the first h eigenvectors (corresponding to the largest h eigenvalues) of the optimal M . 6 4 Experiments In this section, we evaluate our method on one synthetic data and one real data set. We compare the proposed Multi-Task Vector Field Learning (MTVFL) algorithm against the following methods: (a) Single Task Vector Field Learning (STVFL, or PFR), (b) Alternating Structure Optimization (ASO) and (c) its nonlinear version - Kernelized Alternating Structure Optimization (KASO). The kernel constructed in KASO uses both labeled data and unlabeled data. Thus it can be viewed as a semi-supervised MTL method. 4.1 Synthetic Data 0.25 8 MTVFL STVFL 7 0.2 Sigular Value 6 MSE 0.15 0.1 5 4 3 2 0.05 1 0 10 20 30 40 Number of Labeled Data 50 (a) MSE 0 1 2 Principal Component 3 (b) Singular value distribution Figure 2: (a) Performance of MTVFL and STVFL; (b) The singular value distribution. We first construct a synthetic data to evaluate our method in comparison with the semi-supervised single task learning method (STVFL). We generate two data sets including Swiss roll and Swiss roll with hole embedded in 3-dimensional Euclidean space. The Swiss roll is generated by the following equations x = t1 cos t1 ; y = t2 ; z = t1 sin t1 where t1 ? [3?/2, 9?/2]; t2 ? [0, 21]. The Swill roll with hole excludes points within t1 ? [9, 12] and t2 ? [9, 14]. The ground truth function is f (x, y, z) = t1 . This test is a semi-supervised multi-task regression problem. We randomly select a number of labeled data in each task and try to predict the value on other unlabeled data. Each data set has 400 points. We construct a nearest neighbor graph for each task. The number of nearest neighbors is set to 5 and the manifold dimension is set to 2 as they are both 2 dimensional manifolds. The shared subspace dimension is set to 2. The regularization parameters are chosen via cross-validation. We perform 100 independent trials with randomly selected labeled sets. The performance is measured by the mean squared error (MSE). We also try ASO and KASO, however they perform poorly since the data is highly nonlinear. The averaged MSE over two tasks is presented in Fig. 2. We can observe that MTVFL consistently outperforms STVFL which demonstrates the effectiveness of SSMTL. We also show the singular value distribution of the ground truth gradient fields. Given the ground truth f , we can compute the gradient field V by taking derivatives of R1 (f, V ) with respect to V . Requiring the derivative to vanish, we get the following equation GV = Cf. After obtaining V , the gradient vector Vxli at each point can be obtained as Vxli = Til vil . Then we perform PCA on these vectors and the singular values of the covariance matrix of Vxli are shown in Fig. 2 (b). As can be seen from Fig. 2 (b), the number of dominant singular values is 2 which indicates that the ground truth gradient fields concentrate on a 2-dimensional subspace. 4.2 Landmine Detection We use the landmine data set studied in [20]. There are totally 29 sets of data which are collected from various real landmine fields. Each data example is represented by a 9-dimensional vector with a binary label, which is either 1 for landmine or 0 for clutter. The problem of landmine detection 1 The data set is available at http://www.ee.duke.edu/?lcarin/LandmineData.zip. 7 0.8 1200 MTVFL STVFL KASO ASO 1000 800 Sigular Value Average AUC on 19 Tasks 0.85 0.75 0.7 600 400 0.65 20 200 30 40 50 60 Number of Labeled Data 70 0 80 (a) Averaged AUC 2 4 6 Principal Component 8 (b) Singular value distribution Figure 3: (a) Performance of various MTL algorithms; (b) The singular value distribution. is to predict the labels of unlabeled objects. Among the 29 data sets, 1-15 correspond to relatively highly foliated regions and 16-29 correspond to bare earth or desert regions. Following [20], we choose the data sets 1-10 and 16-24 to form 19 tasks. The basic setup of all the algorithms is as follows. First, we construct a nearest neighbor graph for each task. The number of nearest neighbors is set to 10 and the manifold dimension is set to 4 empirically. These two parameters are the same for all 19 tasks. The shared subspace dimension is set to be 5 for both of MTVFL and ASO and the shared subspace dimension of KASO is set to 10. All the regularization parameters for the four algorithms are chosen via cross-validation. Note that KASO needs to construct a kernel matrix. We use Gaussian kernel in KASO and the Gaussian width is set to be optimal by searching within [0.01, 10]. We perform 100 independent trials with randomly selected labeled sets. We measure the performance by AUC which denotes area under the Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) curve. A large AUC value indicates good classification performance. Since the data have severely unbalanced labels, following [20], we do a special setting that assures there is at least one ?1? and one ?0? labeled sample in the training set of each task. The AUC averaged over the 19 tasks is presented in Fig. 3 (a). As can be seen, MTVFL consistently outperforms the other three algorithms. When the number of labeled data increases, KASO outperforms STVFL. ASO does not improve much when the amount of labeled data increases, which is probably because the data have severely unbalanced labels and the ground truth predictor function is nonlinear. We also show the singular value distribution of the ground truth gradient fields in Fig. 3 (b). The computation of the singular values is the same as in Section. 4.1. As can be seen from Fig. 3 (b), the number of dominant singular values is 5. The percentage of the sum of the first 5 singular values over the total sum is 91.34%, which indicates that the ground truth gradient fields concentrate on a 5-dimensional subspace. 5 Conclusion In this paper, we propose a new semi-supervised multi-task learning formulation using vector fields. We show that vector fields can naturally capture the shared differential structure among tasks as well as the structure of the data manifolds. Our experimental results on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. There are several interesting directions suggested in this work. One is the relation between learning on task parameters and learning on vector fields. Ultimately, both of them are learning functions. Another one is to apply other assumptions made in the multi-task learning community into vector field learning, e.g., the cluster assumption. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61125203, 61233011 and 90920303, the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant 2012CB316404, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under grant 2011FZA5022, NIH (R01 LM010730) and NSF (IIS-0953662, CCF-1025177). 8 References [1] A. Agarwal, H. D. III, and S. Gerber. Learning multiple tasks using manifold regularization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pages 46?54. 2010. [2] R. K. Ando and T. Zhang. A framework for learning predictive structures from multiple tasks and unlabeled data. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1817?1853, 2005. [3] A. Argyriou, C. A. Micchelli, M. Pontil, and Y. Ying. A spectral regularization framework for multi-task structure learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 25?32. 2008. [4] B. Bakker and T. Heskes. Task clustering and gating for bayesian multitask learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:83?99, 2003. [5] M. Belkin, P. Niyogi, and V. Sindhwani. Manifold regularization: A geometric framework for learning from labeled and unlabeled examples. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:2399?2434, December 2006. [6] S. Ben-David, J. Gehrke, and R. Schuller. A theoretical framework for learning from a pool of disparate data sources. In Proceedings of the eighth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 443?449, 2002. [7] S. Ben-David and R. Schuller. Exploiting task relatedness for mulitple task learning. In Conference on Learning Theory, pages 567?580, 2003. [8] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [9] A. Carlson, J. Betteridge, R. C. Wang, E. R. Hruschka, Jr., and T. M. Mitchell. Coupled semisupervised learning for information extraction. In Proceedings of the third ACM international conference on Web search and data mining, pages 101?110, 2010. [10] O. Chapelle, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Zien, editors. Semi-Supervised Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [11] A. Defant and K. Floret. Tensor Norms and Operator Ideals. North-Holland Mathematics Studies, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1993. [12] T. Evgeniou, C. A. Micchelli, and M. Pontil. Learning multiple tasks with kernel methods. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:615?637, 2005. [13] G. H. Golub and C. F. V. Loan. Matrix computations. Johns Hopkins University Press, 3rd edition, 1996. [14] L. Jacob, F. Bach, and J.-P. Vert. Clustered multi-task learning: A convex formulation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 21, pages 745?752. 2009. [15] J. Lafferty and L. Wasserman. Statistical analysis of semi-supervised regression. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 801?808, 2007. [16] J. M. Lee. Introduction to Smooth Manifolds. Springer Verlag, New York, 2nd edition, 2003. [17] B. Lin, C. Zhang, and X. He. Semi-supervised regression via parallel field regularization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, pages 433?441. 2011. [18] Q. Liu, X. Liao, and L. Carin. Semi-supervised multitask learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 937?944. 2008. [19] F. Wang, X. Wang, and T. Li. Semi-supervised multi-task learning with task regularizations. In Proceedings of the 2009 Ninth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, pages 562? 568. IEEE Computer Society, 2009. [20] Y. Xue, X. Liao, L. Carin, and B. Krishnapuram. Multi-task learning for classification with dirichlet process priors. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 8:35?63, 2007. 9
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Hamming Distance Metric Learning Mohammad Norouzi? David J. Fleet? Ruslan Salakhutdinov?,? ? Departments of Computer Science and Statistics? University of Toronto [norouzi,fleet,rsalakhu]@cs.toronto.edu Abstract Motivated by large-scale multimedia applications we propose to learn mappings from high-dimensional data to binary codes that preserve semantic similarity. Binary codes are well suited to large-scale applications as they are storage efficient and permit exact sub-linear kNN search. The framework is applicable to broad families of mappings, and uses a flexible form of triplet ranking loss. We overcome discontinuous optimization of the discrete mappings by minimizing a piecewise-smooth upper bound on empirical loss, inspired by latent structural SVMs. We develop a new loss-augmented inference algorithm that is quadratic in the code length. We show strong retrieval performance on CIFAR-10 and MNIST, with promising classification results using no more than kNN on the binary codes. 1 Introduction Many machine learning algorithms presuppose the existence of a pairwise similarity measure on the input space. Examples include semi-supervised clustering, nearest neighbor classification, and kernel-based methods, When similarity measures are not given a priori, one could adopt a generic function such as Euclidean distance, but this often produces unsatisfactory results. The goal of metric learning techniques is to improve matters by incorporating side information, and optimizing parametric distance functions such as the Mahalanobis distance [7, 12, 30, 34, 36]. Motivated by large-scale multimedia applications, this paper advocates the use of discrete mappings, from input features to binary codes. Compact binary codes are remarkably storage efficient, allowing one to store massive datasets in memory. The Hamming distance, a natural similarity measure on binary codes, can be computed with just a few machine instructions per comparison. Further, it has been shown that one can perform exact nearest neighbor search in Hamming space significantly faster than linear search, with sublinear run-times [15, 25]. By contrast, retrieval based on Mahalanobis distance requires approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search, for which state-of-the-art methods (e.g., see [18, 23]) do not always perform well, especially with massive, high-dimensional datasets when storage overheads and distance computations become prohibitive. Most approaches to discrete (binary) embeddings have focused on preserving the metric (e.g. Euclidean) structure of the input data, the canonical example being locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) [4, 17]. Based on random projections, LSH and its variants (e.g., [26]) provide guarantees that metric similarity is preserved for sufficiently long codes. To find compact codes, recent research has turned to machine learning techniques that optimize mappings for specific datasets (e.g., [20, 28, 29, 32, 3]). However, most such methods aim to preserve Euclidean structure (e.g. [13, 20, 35]). In metric learning, by comparison, the goal is to preserve semantic structure based on labeled attributes or parameters associated with training exemplars. There are papers on learning binary hash functions that preserve semantic similarity [29, 28, 32, 24], but most have only considered ad hoc datasets and uninformative performance measures, for which it is difficult to judge performance with anything but the qualitative appearance of retrieval results. The question of whether or not it is possible to learn hash functions capable of preserving complex semantic structure, with high fidelity, has remained unanswered. 1 To address this issue, we introduce a framework for learning a broad class of binary hash functions based on a triplet ranking loss designed to preserve relative similarity (c.f. [11, 5]). While certainly useful for preserving metric structure, this loss function is very well suited to the preservation of semantic similarity. Notably, it can be viewed as a form of local ranking loss. It is more flexible than the pairwise hinge loss of [24], and is shown below to produce superior hash functions. Our formulation is inspired by latent SVM [10] and latent structural SVM [37] models, and it generalizes the minimal loss hashing (MLH) algorithm of [24]. Accordingly, to optimize hash function parameters we formulate a continuous upper-bound on empirical loss, with a new form of lossaugmented inference designed for efficient optimization with the proposed triplet loss on the Hamming space. To our knowledge, this is one of the most general frameworks for learning a broad class of hash functions. In particular, many previous loss-based techniques [20, 24] are not capable of optimizing mappings that involve non-linear projections, e.g., by neural nets. Our experiments indicate that the framework is capable of preserving semantic structure on challenging datasets, namely, MNIST [1] and CIFAR-10 [19]. We show that k-nearest neighbor (kNN) search on the resulting binary codes retrieves items that bear remarkable similarity to a given query item. To show that the binary representation is rich enough to capture salient semantic structure, as is common in metric learning, we also report classification performance on the binary codes. Surprisingly, on these datasets, simple kNN classifiers in Hamming space are competitive with sophisticated discriminative classifiers, including SVMs and neural networks. An important appeal of our approach is the scalability of kNN search on binary codes to billions of data points, and of kNN classification to millions of class labels. 2 Formulation The task is to learn a mapping b(x) that projects p-dimensional real-valued inputs x ? Rp onto q-dimensional binary codes h ? H ? {?1, 1}q , while preserving some notion of similarity. This mapping, referred to as a hash function, is parameterized by a real-valued vector w as b(x; w) = sign (f (x; w)) , (1) p q where sign(.) denotes the element-wise sign function, and f (x; w) : R ? R is a real-valued transformation. Different forms of f give rise to different families of hash functions: 1. A linear transform f (x) = W x, where W ? Rq?p and w ? vec(W ), is the simplest and most well-studied case [4, 13, 24, 33]. Under this mapping the k th bit is determined by a hyperplane in the input space whose normal is given by the k th row of W . 1 2. In [35], linear projections are followed by an element-wise cosine transform, i.e. f (x) = cos(W x). For such mappings the bits correspond to stripes of 1 and ?1 regions, oriented parallel to the corresponding hyperplanes, in the input space. 3. Kernelized hash functions [20, 21]. 4. More complex hash functions are obtained with multilayer neural networks [28, 32]. For example, a two-layer network with a p0 -dimensional hidden layer and weight matrices W1 ? 0 0 Rp ?p and W2 ? Rq?p can be expressed as f (x) = tanh(W2 tanh(W1 x)), where tanh(.) is the element-wise hyperbolic tangent function. Our Hamming distance metric learning framework applies to all of the above families of hash functions. The only restriction is that f must be differentiable with respect to its parameters, so that one is able to compute the Jacobian of f (x; w) with respect to w. 2.1 Loss functions The choice of loss function is crucial for learning good similarity measures. To this end, most existing supervised binary hashing techniques [13, 22, 24] formulate learning objectives in terms of pairwise similarity, where pairs of inputs are labelled as either similar or dissimilar. Similaritypreserving hashing aims to ensure that Hamming distances between binary codes for similar (dissimilar) items are small (large). For example, MLH [24] uses a pairwise hinge loss function. For 1 For presentation clarity, in linear and nonlinear cases, we omit bias terms. They are incorporated by adding one dimension to the input vectors, and to the hidden layers of neural networks, with a fixed value of one. 2 two binary codes h, g ? H with Hamming distance2 kh?gkH , and a similarity label s ? {0, 1}, the pairwise hinge loss is defined as:  [ kh?gkH ? ? + 1 ]+ for s = 1 (similar) (2) `pair (h, g, s) = [ ? ? kh?gkH + 1 ]+ for s = 0 (dissimilar) , where [?]+ ? max(?, 0), and ? is a Hamming distance threshold that separates similar from dissimilar codes. This loss incurs zero cost when a pair of similar inputs map to codes that differ by less than ? bits. The loss is zero for dissimilar items whose Hamming distance is more than ? bits. One problem with such loss functions is that finding a suitable threshold ? with cross-validation is slow. Furthermore, for many problems one cares more about the relative magnitudes of pairwise distances than their precise numerical values. So, constraining pairwise Hamming distances over all pairs of codes with a single threshold is overly restrictive. More importantly, not all datasets are amenable to labeling input pairs as similar or dissimilar. One way to avoid some of these problems is to define loss in terms of relative similarity. Such loss functions have been used in metric learning [5, 11], and, as shown below, they are also naturally suited to Hamming distance metric learning. To define relative similarity, we assume that the training data includes triplets of items (x, x+ , x? ), such that the pair (x, x+ ) is more similar than the pair (x, x? ). Our goal is to learn a hash function b such that b(x) is closer to b(x+ ) than to b(x? ) in Hamming distance. Accordingly, we propose a ranking loss on the triplet of binary codes (h, h+ , h? ), obtained from b applied to (x, x+ , x? ):   `triplet (h, h+ , h? ) = kh?h+ kH ? kh?h? kH + 1 + . (3) This loss is zero when the Hamming distance between the more-similar pair, kh ? h+ kH , is at least one bit smaller than the Hamming distance between the less-similar pair, kh ? h? kH . This loss function is more flexible than the pairwise loss function `pair , as it can be used to preserve rankings among similar items, for example based on Euclidean distance, or perhaps using path distance between category labels within a phylogenetic tree. 3 Optimization  ? n Given a training set of triplets, D = (xi , x+ i , xi ) i=1 , our objective is the sum of the empirical loss and a simple regularizer on the vector of unknown parameters w: X  ? L(w) = `triplet b(x; w), b(x+ ; w), b(x? ; w) + kwk22 . (4) 2 + ? (x,x ,x )?D This objective is discontinuous and non-convex. The hash function is a discrete mapping and empirical loss is piecewise constant. Hence optimization is very challenging. We cannot overcome the non-convexity, but the problems owing to the discontinuity can be mitigated through the construction of a continuous upper bound on the loss. The upper bound on loss that we adopt is inspired by previous work on latent structural SVMs [37]. The key observation that relates our Hamming distance metric learning framework to structured prediction is as follows, b(x; w) = sign (f (x; w)) = argmax hT f (x; w) , (5) h?H where H ? {?1, +1}q . The argmax on the RHS effectively means that for dimensions of f (x; w) with positive values, the optimal code should take on values +1, and when elements of f (x; w) are negative the corresponding bits of the code should be ?1. This is identical to the sign function. 3.1 Upper bound on empirical loss The upper bound on loss that we exploit for learning hash functions takes the following form:  `triplet b(x; w), b(x+ ; w), b(x? ; w) ? n o  + ? T +T + ?T ? max ` + g f (x; w) + g f (x ; w) + g f (x ; w) triplet g, g , g g,g+ ,g? n o n o  +T + ?T ? ? max hT f (x; w) ? max h f (x ; w) ? max h f (x ; w) , + ? h 2 h h The Hamming norm kvkH is defined as the number of non-zero entries of vector v. 3 (6) where g, g+ , g? , h, h+ , and h? are constrained to be q-dimensional binary vectors. To prove the inequality in Eq. 6, note that if the first term on the RHS were maximized3 by (g, g+ , g? ) = (b(x), b(x+ ), b(x? )), then using Eq. 5, it is straightforward to show that Eq. 6 would become an equality. In all other cases of (g, g+ , g? ) which maximize the first term, the RHS can only be as large or larger than when (g, g+ , g? ) = (b(x), b(x+ ), b(x? )), hence the inequality holds. Summing the upper bound instead of the loss in Eq. 4 yields an upper bound on the regularized empirical loss in Eq. 4. Importantly, the resulting bound is easily shown to be continuous and piecewise smooth in w as long as f is continuous in w. The upper bound of Eq. 6 is a generalization of a bound introduced in [24] for the linear case, f (x) = W x. In particular, when f is linear in w, the bound on regularized empirical loss becomes piecewise linear and convex-concave. While the bound in Eq. 6 is more challenging to optimize than the bound in [24], it allows us to learn hash functions based on non-linear functions f , e.g. neural networks. While the bound in [24] was defined for `pair -type loss functions and pairwise similarity labels, the bound here applies to the more flexible class of triplet loss functions. 3.2 Loss-augmented inference To use the upper bound in Eq. 6 for optimization, we must be able to find the binary codes given by n o  T T ?+, g ? ? ) = argmax `triplet g, g+ , g? + gT f (x) + g+ f (x+ ) + g? f (x? ) . (? g, g (7) (g,g+ ,g? ) In the structured prediction literature this maximization is called loss-augmented inference. The challenge stems from the 23q possible binary codes over which one has to maximize the RHS. Fortunately, we can show that this loss-augmented inference problem can be solved efficiently for the class of triplet loss functions that depend only on the value of d(g, g+ , g? ) ? kg?g+ kH ? kg?g? kH . Importantly, such loss functions do not depend on the specific binary codes, but rather just the differences. Further, note that d(g, g+ , g? ) can take on only 2q +1 possible values, since it is an integer between ?q and +q. Clearly the triplet ranking loss only depends on d since   `triplet g, g+ , g? = ` 0 d(g, g+ , g? ) , where ` 0 (?) = [ ? ? 1 ]+ . (8) For this family of loss functions, given the values of f (.) in Eq. 7, loss-augmented inference can be performed in time O(q 2 ). To prove this, first consider the case d(g, g+ , g? ) = m, where m is an integer between ?q and q. In this case we can replace the loss augmented inference problem with n o T +T + ?T ? ` 0 (m) + max g f (x) + g f (x ) + g f (x ) s.t. d(g, g+ , g? ) = m . (9) + ? g,g ,g One can solve Eq. 9 for each possible value of m. It is straightforward to see that the largest of those 2q + 1 maxima is the solution to Eq. 7. Then, what remains for us is to solve Eq. 9. To solve Eq. 9, consider the ith bit for each of the three codes, i.e. a = g[i], b = g+ [i], and c = g? [i], where v[i] denotes the ith element of vector v. There are 8 ways to select a, b and c, but no matter what values they take on, they can only change the value of d(g, g+ , g? ) by ?1, 0, or +1. Accordingly, let ei ? {?1, 0, +1} denote the effect of the ith bits on d(g, g+ , g? ). For each value of ei , we can easily compute the maximal contribution of (a, b, c) to Eq. 9 by:  cont(i, ei ) = max af (x)[i] + bf (x+ )[i] + cf (x? )[i] (10) a,b,c such that a, b, c ? {?1, +1} and ka?bkH ? ka?ckH = ei . Pq Therefore, to solve Eq. 9, we aim to select values for ei , for all i, such that i=1 ei = m and P q i=1 cont(i, ei ) is maximized. This can be solved for any m using a dynamic programming algorithm, similar to knapsack, in O(q 2 ). Finally, we choose m that maximizes Eq. 9 and set the bits to the configurations that maximized cont(i, ei ). 3 For presentation clarity we will sometimes drop the dependence of f and b on w, and write b(x) and f (x). 4 3.3 Perceptron-like learning Our learning algorithm is a form of stochastic gradient descent, where in the tth iteration we sample a triplet (x, x+ , x? ) from the dataset, and then take a step in the direction that decreases the upper bound on the triplet?s loss in Eq. 6. To this end, we randomly initialize w(0) . Then, at each iteration t + 1, given w(t) , we use the following procedure to update the parameters, w(t+1) : 1. Select a random triplet (x, x+ , x? ) from dataset D. ? h ? +, h ? ? ) = (b(x; w(t) ), b(x+ ; w(t) ), b(x? ; w(t) )) using Eq. 5. 2. Compute (h, ?+, g ? ? ), the solution to the loss-augmented inference problem in Eq. 7 . 3. Compute (? g, g 4. Update model parameters using    ?f (x? )    ?f (x+ )  ?f (x)  ? + + ? ? (t) (t+1) (t) ? ? ? + ? + ? ? ?w h? g h ?g h ?g , w =w + ? ?w ?w ?w where ? is the learning rate, and ?f (x)/?w ? ?f (x; w)/?w|w=w(t) ? R|w|?q is the transpose of the Jacobian matrix, where |w| is the number of parameters. This update rule can be seen as gradient descent in the upper bound of the regularized empirical loss. Although the upper bound in Eq. 6 is not differentiable at isolated points (owing to the max terms), in our experiments we find that this update rule consistently decreases both the upper bound and the actual regularized empirical loss L(w). 4 Asymmetric Hamming distance When Hamming distance is used to score and retrieve the nearest neighbors to a given query, there is a high probability of a tie, where multiple items are equidistant from the query in Hamming space. To break ties and improve the similarity measure, previous work suggests the use of an asymmetric Hamming (AH) distance [9, 14]. With an AH distance, one stores dataset entries as binary codes (for storage efficiency) but the queries are not binarized. An asymmetric distance function is therefore defined on a real-valued query vector, v ? Rq , and a database binary code, h ? H. Computing AH distance is slightly less efficient than Hamming distance, and efficient retrieval algorithms, such as [25], are not directly applicable. Nevertheless, the AH distance can also be used to re-rank items retrieved using Hamming distance, with a negligible increase in run-time. To improve efficiency further when there are many codes to be re-ranked, AH distance from the query to binary codes can be pre-computed for each 8 or 16 consecutive bits, and stored in a query-specific lookup table. In this work, we use the following asymmetric Hamming distance function 1 2 AH(h, v; s) = k h ? tanh(Diag(s) v) k2 , (11) 4 where s ? Rq is a vector of scaling parameters that control the slope of hyperbolic tangent applied to different bits; Diag(s) is a diagonal matrix with the elements of s on its diagonal. As the scaling factors in s approach infinity, AH and Hamming distances become identical. Here we use the AH distance between a database code b(x0 ) and the real-valued projection for the query f (x). Based on our validation sets, the AH distance of Eq. 11 is relatively insensitive to values in s. For the experiments we simply use s to scale the average absolute values of the elements of f (x) to be 0.25. 5 Implementation details In practice, the basic learning algorithm described in Sec. 3 is implemented with several modifications. First, instead of using a single training triplet to estimate the gradients, we use mini-batches comprising 100 triplets and average the gradient. Second, for each triplet (x, x+ , x? ), we replace x? with a ?hard? example by selecting an item among all negative examples in the mini-batch that is closest in the current Hamming distance to b(x). By harvesting hard negative examples, we ensure that the Hamming constraints for the triplets are not too easily satisfied. Third, to find good binary codes, we encourage each bit, averaged over the training data, to be mean-zero before quantization (motivated in [35]). This is accomplished by adding the following penalty to the objective function:  1 k mean f (x; w) k22 , (12) x 2 5 0.99 Precision @k Precision @k 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.9 0.87 Two?layer net, triplet Two?layer net, pairwise Linear, triplet Linear, pairwise [24] 10 100 k 1000 0.96 0.93 0.9 0.87 10000 128?bit, linear, triplet 64?bit, linear, triplet 32?bit, linear, triplet Euclidean distance 10 100 k 1000 10000 Figure 1: MNIST precision@k: (left) four methods (with 32-bit codes); (right) three code lengths. where mean(f (x; w)) denotes the mean of f (x; w) across the training data. In our implementation, for efficiency, the stochastic gradient of Eq. 12 is computed per mini-batch using the Jacobian matrix in the update rule (see Sec. 3.3). Empirically, we observe that including this term in the objective improves the quality of binary codes, especially with the triplet ranking loss. We use a heuristic to adapt learning rates, known as bold driver [2]. For each mini-batch we evaluate the learning objective before the parameters are updated. As long as the objective is decreasing we slowly increase the learning rate ?, but when the objective increases, ? is halved. In particular, after every 25 epochs, if the objective, averaged over the last 25 epochs, decreased, we increase ? by 5%, otherwise we decrease ? by 50%. We also used a momentum term; i.e. the previous gradient update is scaled by 0.9 and then added to the current gradient. All experiments are run on a GPU for 2, 000 passes through the datasets. The training time for our current implementation is under 4 hours of GPU time for most of our experiments. The two exceptions involve CIFAR-10 with 6400-D inputs and relatively long code-lengths of 256 and 512 bits, for which the training times are approximated 8 and 16 hours respectively. 6 Experiments Our experiments evaluate Hamming distance metric learning using two families of hash functions, namely, linear transforms and multilayer neural networks (see Sec. 2). For each, we examine two loss functions, the pairwise hinge loss (Eq. 2) and the triplet ranking loss (Eq. 3). Experiments are conducted on two well-known image corpora, MNIST [1] and CIFAR-10 [19]. Ground-truth similarity labels are derived from class labels; items from the same class are deemed similar4 . This definition of similarity ignores intra-class variations and the existence of subcategories, e.g. styles of handwritten fours, or types of airplanes. Nevertheless, we use these coarse similarity labels to evaluate our framework. To that end, using items from the test set as queries, we report precision@k, i.e. the fraction of k closest items in Hamming distance that are same-class neighbors. We also show kNN retrieval results for qualitative inspection. Finally, we report Hamming (H) and asymmetric Hamming (AH) kNN classification rates on the test sets. Datasets. The MNIST [1] digit dataset contains 60, 000 training and 10, 000 test images (28?28 pixels) of ten handwritten digits (0 to 9). Of the 60, 000 training images, we set aside 5, 000 for validation. CIFAR-10 [19] comprises 50, 000 training and 10, 000 test color images (32?32 pixels). Each image belongs to one of 10 classes, namely airplane, automobile, bird, cat, deer, dog, frog, horse, ship, and truck. The large variability in scale, viewpoint, illumination, and background clutter poses a significant challenge for classification. Instead of using raw pixel values, we borrow a bagof-words representation from Coates et al [6]. Its 6400-D feature vector comprises one 1600-bin histogram per image quadrant, the codewords of which are learned from 6?6 image patches. Such high-dimensional inputs are challenging for learning similarity-preserving hash functions. Of the 50, 000 training images, we set aside 5, 000 for validation. MNIST: We optimize binary hash functions, mapping raw MNIST images to 32, 64, and 128-bit codes. For each test code we find the k closest training codes using Hamming distance, and report precision@k in Fig. 1. As one might expect, the non-linear mappings5 significantly outperform linear mappings. We also find that the triplet loss (Eq. 3) yields better performance than the pairwise 4 Training triplets are created by taking two items from the same class, and one item from a different class. The two-layer neural nets for Fig. 1 and Table 1 had 1 hidden layer with 512 units. Weights were initialized randomly, and the Jacobian with respect to the parameters was computed with the backprop algorithm [27]. 5 6 kNN 2 NN 2 NN 30 NN 30 NN 3 NN 3 NN 30 NN 30 NN Distance Asym. Hamming Hamming Hash function, Loss Linear, pairwise hinge [24] Linear, triplet ranking Two-layer Net, pairwise hinge Two-layer Net, triplet ranking Linear, pairwise hinge Linear, triplet ranking Two-layer Net, pairwise hinge Two-layer Net, triplet ranking Baseline Deep neural nets with pre-training [16] Large margin nearest neighbor [34] RBF-kernel SVM [8] Neural network [31] Euclidean 3NN 32 bits 4.66 4.44 1.50 1.45 4.30 3.88 1.50 1.45 64 bits 3.16 3.06 1.45 1.38 2.78 2.90 1.36 1.29 128 bits 2.61 2.44 1.44 1.27 2.46 2.51 1.35 1.20 Error 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.89 Table 1: Classification error rates on MNIST test set. loss (Eq. 2). The sharp drop in precision at k = 6000 is a consequence of the fact that each digit in MNIST has approximately 6000 same-class neighbors. Fig. 1 (right) shows how precision improves as a function of the binary code length. Notably, kNN retrieval, for k > 10 and all code lengths, yields higher precision than Euclidean NN on the 784-D input space. Further, note that these Euclidian results effectively provide an upper bound on the performance one would expect with existing hashing methods that preserve Eucliean distances (e.g., [13, 17, 20, 35]). One can also evaluate the fidelity of the Hamming space represenation in terms of classification performance from the Hamming codes. To focus on the quality of the hash functions, and the speed of retrieval for large-scale multimedia datasets, we use a kNN classifier; i.e. we just use the retrieved neighbors to predict class labels for each test code. Table 1 reports classification error rates using kNN based on Hamming and asymmetric Hamming distance. Non-linear mappings, even with only 32-bit codes, significantly outperform linear mappings (e.g.with 128 bits). The ranking hinge loss also improves upon the pairwise hinge loss, even though the former has no hyperparameters. Table 1 also indicates that AH distance provides a modest boost in performance. For each method the parameter k in the kNN classifier is chosen based on the validation set. For baseline comparison, Table 1 reports state-of-the-art performance on MNIST with sophisticated discriminative classifiers (excluding those using examplar deformations and convolutional nets). Despite the simplicity of a kNN classifier, our model achieves error rates of 1.29% and 1.20% using 64- and 128-bit codes. This is compared to 1.4% with RBF-SVM [8], and to 1.6%, the best published neural net result for this version of the task [31]. Our model also out performs the metric learning approach of [34], and is competitive with the best known Deep Belief Network [16]; although they used unsupervised pre-training while we do not. The above results show that our Hamming distance metric learning framework can preserve sufficient semantic similarity, to the extent that Hamming kNN classification becomes competitive with state-of-the-art discriminative methods. Nevertheless, our method is not solely a classifier, and it can be used within many other machine learning algorithms. In comparison, another hashing technique called iterative quantization (ITQ) [13] achieves 8.5% error on MNIST and 78% accuracy on CIFAR-10. Our method compares favorably, especially on MNIST. However, ITQ [13] inherently binarizes the outcome of a supervised classifier (Canonical Correlation Analysis with labels), and does not explicitly learn a similarity measure on the input features based on pairs or triplets. CIFAR-10: On CIFAR-10 we optimize hash functions for 64, 128, 256, and 512-bit codes. The supplementary material includes precision@k curves, showing superior quality of hash functions learned by the ranking loss compared to the pairwise loss. Here, in Fig. 2, we depict the quality of retrieval results for two queries, showing the 16 nearest neighbors using 256-bit codes, 64-bit codes (both learned with the triplet ranking loss), and Euclidean distance in the original 6400-D feature space. The number of class-based retrieval errors is much smaller in Hamming space, and the similarity in visual appearance is also superior. More such results, including failure modes, are shown in the supplementary material. 7 (Hamming on 256 bit codes) (Hamming on 64 bit codes) (Euclidean distance) Figure 2: Retrieval results for two CIFAR-10 test images using Hamming distance on 256-bit and 64-bit codes, and Euclidean distance on bag-of-words features. Red rectangles indicate mistakes. Hashing, Loss Linear, pairwise hinge [24] Linear, pairwise hinge Linear, triplet ranking Linear, triplet ranking Distance H AH H AH kNN 7 NN 8 NN 2 NN 2 NN Baseline One-vs-all linear SVM [6] Euclidean 3NN 64 bits 72.2 72.3 75.1 75.7 128 bits 72.8 73.5 75.9 76.8 256 bits 73.8 74.3 77.1 77.5 512 bits 74.6 74.9 77.9 78.0 Accuracy 77.9 59.3 Table 2: Recognition accuracy on the CIFAR-10 test set (H ? Hamming, AH ? Asym. Hamming). Table 2 reports classification performance (showing accuracy instead of error rates for consistency with previous papers). Euclidean NN on the 6400-D input features yields under 60% accuracy, while kNN with the binary codes obtains 76 ? 78%. As with MNIST data, this level of performance is comparable to one-vs-all SVMs applied to the same features [6]. Not surprisingly, training fully-connected neural nets on 6400-dimensional features with only 50, 000 training examples is challenging and susceptible to over-fitting, hence the results of neural nets on CIFAR-10 were not competitive. Previous work [19] had some success training convolutional neural nets on this dataset. Note that our framework can easily incorporate convolutional neural nets, which are intuitively better suited to the intrinsic spatial structure of natural images. 7 Conclusion We present a framework for Hamming distance metric learning, which entails learning a discrete mapping from the input space onto binary codes. This framework accommodates different families of hash functions, including quantized linear transforms, and multilayer neural nets. By using a piecewise-smooth upper bound on a triplet ranking loss, we optimize hash functions that are shown to preserve semantic similarity on complex datasets. 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Semiparametric Principal Component Analysis Han Liu Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering Princeton University, NJ 08544 [email protected] Fang Han Department of Biostatistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21210 [email protected] Abstract We propose two new principal component analysis methods in this paper utilizing a semiparametric model. The according methods are named Copula Component Analysis (COCA) and Copula PCA. The semiparametric model assumes that, after unspecified marginally monotone transformations, the distributions are multivariate Gaussian. The COCA and Copula PCA accordingly estimate the leading eigenvectors of the correlation and covariance matrices of the latent Gaussian distribution. The robust nonparametric rank-based correlation coefficient estimator, Spearman?s rho, is exploited in estimation. We prove that, under suitable conditions, although the marginal distributions can be arbitrarily continuous, the COCA and Copula PCA estimators obtain fast estimation rates and are feature selection consistent in the setting where the dimension is nearly exponentially large relative to the sample size. Careful numerical experiments on the synthetic and real data are conducted to back up the theoretical results. We also discuss the relationship with the transelliptical component analysis proposed by Han and Liu (2012). 1 Introduction The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is introduced as follows. Given a random vector X ? Rd with covariance matrix ? and n independent observations of X, the PCA reduces the dimension of the data by projecting the data onto a linear subspace spanned by the k leading eigenvectors of ?, such that the principal modes of variations are preserved. In practice, ? is unknown and replaced by Pd the sample covariance S. By spectral decomposition, ? = j=1 ?j uj uTj with eigenvalues ?1 ? . . . ? ?d and the corresponding orthornormal eigenvectors u1 , . . . , ud . PCA aims at recovering the first k eigenvectors u1 , . . . , uk . Although the PCA method as a procedure is model free, its theoretical and empirical performances rely on the distributions. With regard to the empirical concern, the PCA?s geometric intuition is coming from the major axes of the contours of constant probability of the Gaussian [10]. [5] show that if X is multivariate Gaussian, then the distribution is centered about the principal component axes and is therefore ?self-consistent? [8]. We refer to [10] for more good properties that the PCA enjoys under the Gaussian model, which we wish to preserve while designing its generalization. With regard to the theoretical concern, firstly, the PCA generally fails to be consistent in high dimensional setting. Given u b1 the dominant eigenvector of S, [9] show that the angle between u b1 and u1 will not converge to 0, i.e. lim inf n?? E?(b u1 , u1 ) > 0, where we denote by ?(b u1 , u 1 ) the angle between the estimated and the true leading eigenvectors. This key observation motivates regularizing ?, resulting in a series of methods with different formulations and algorithms. The statistical model is generally further specified such that u1 is sparse, namely supp(u1 ) := {j : u1j 6= 0} and card(supp(u1 )) = s < n. The resulting estimator u e1 is: u e1 = arg max v T Sv subject to kvk2 = 1, card(supp(v)) ? s. (1.1) v?Rd To solve Equation (1.1), a variety of algorithms are proposed: greedy algorithms [3], lasso-type methods including SCoTLASS [11], SPCA [25] and sPCA-rSVD [19], a number of power methods [12, 23, 16], the biconvex algorithm PMD [21] and the semidefinite relaxation DSPCA [4]. Secondly, it is realized that the distribution where the data are drawn from needs to be specified, such 1 that the estimator u e1 converges to u ?1 in a fast rate. [9, 1, 16, 18, 20] all establish their results under a strong Gaussian or sub-Gaussian assumption in order to obtain a fast rate under certain conditions. In this paper, we first explore the use of the PCA conducted on the correlation matrix ?0 instead of the covariance matrix ?, and then propose a high dimensional semiparametric scale-invariant principal component analysis method, named the Copula Component Analysis (COCA). In this paper, the population version of the scale-invariant PCA is built as the estimator of the leading eigenvector of the population correlation matrix ?0 . Secondly, to handle the non-Gaussian data, we generalize the distribution family from the Gaussian to the larger Nonparanormal family [15]. A random variable X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T belongs to a Nonparanormal family if and only if there exists a set of univariate monotone functions {fj0 }dj=1 such that (f10 (X1 ), . . . , fd0 (Xd ))T is multivariate Gaussian. The Nonparanormal can have arbitrary continuous marginal distributions and can be far away from the sub-Gaussian family. Thirdly, to estimate ?0 robustly and efficiently, instead of estimating the normal score transformation functions {fbj0 }dj=1 as [15] did, realizing that {fj0 }dj=1 preserve the ranks of the data, we utilize the nonparametric correlation coefficient estimator, Spearman?s rho, to estimate ?0 . [14, 22] prove that the corresponding estimators converge to ?0 in a parametric rate. In theory, we analyze the general case that X is following the Nonparanormal and ?1 is weakly sparse, here ?1 is the leading eigenvector of ?0 . We obtain the estimation consistency of the COCA estimator to ?1 using the Spearman?s rho correlation coefficient matrix. We prove that the estimation consistency rates are close to the parametric rate under Gaussian assumption and the feature selection consistency can be achieved when d is nearly exponential to the sample size. In this paper, we also propose a scale variant PCA procedure, named the Copula PCA. The Copula PCA estimates the leading eigenvector of the latent covariance matrix ?. To estimate the leading eigenvectors of ?, instead of ?0 , in a fast rate, we prove that extra conditions are required on the transformation functions. 2 Background We start with notations: Let M = [Mjk ] ? Rd?d and v = (v1 , ..., vd )T ? Rd . Let v?s subvector with entries indexed by I be denoted by vI , M ?s submatrix with rows indexed by I and columns indexed by J be denoted by MIJ . Let MI? and M?J be the submatrix of M with rows in I and all columns, and the submatrix of M with columns in J and all rows. For 0 < q ? ?, we Pd define the `q and `? vector norm as kvkq := ( i=1 |vi |q )1/q and kvk? := max1?i?d |vi |, and kvk0 := card(supp(v))?kvk2 . We define the matrix `max norm as the elementwise maximum value: Pn kM kmax := max{|Mij |} and the `? norm as kM k? := max1?i?m j=1 |Mij |. Let ?j (M ) be the toppest j?th eigenvalue of M. In special, ?min (M ) := ?d (M ) and ?max (M ) := ?1 (M ) are the smallest and largest eigenvalues of M . The vectorized matrix of M , denoted by vec(M ), is T T T defined as: vec(M ) := (M?1 , . . . , M?d ) . Let Sd?1 := {v ? Rd : kvk2 = 1} be the d-dimensional `2 sphere. For any two vectors a, b ? Rd and any two squared matrices A, B ? Rd?d , denote the inner product of a and b, A and B by ha, bi := aT b and hA, Bi := Tr(AT B). 2.1 The Models of the PCA and Scale-invariant PCA Pd Let ?0 be the correlation matrix of ?, and by spectral decomposition, ? = j=1 ?j uj uTj and ?0 = Pd T j=1 ?j ?j ?j . Here ?1 ? ?2 ? . . . ? ?d > 0 and ?1 ? ?2 ? . . . ? ?d > 0 are the eigenvalues 0 of ? and ? , with u1 , . . . , ud and ?1 , . . . , ?d the corresponding orthonormal eigenvectors. The next proposition claims that the estimators {b u1 , . . . , u bd } and {?b1 , . . . , ?bd }, the eigenvectors of the sample covariance and correlation matrices S and S 0 , are the MLEs of {u1 , . . . , ud } and {?1 , . . . , ?d }: Proposition 2.1. Let x1 . . . xn ? N (?, ?) and ?0 be the correlation matrix of ?. Then the estimators of PCA, {b u1 , . . . , u bd }, and the estimators of the scale-invariant PCA, {?b1 , . . . , ?bd }, are the MLEs of {u1 , . . . , ud } and {?1 , . . . , ?d }. Proof. Use Theorem 11.3.1 in [2] and the functional invariance property of the MLE. Proposition 2.2. For any 1 ? i ? d, we have supp(ui ) = supp(?i ) and sign(uij ) = sign(?ij ), ? 1 ? j ? d. Proof. For 1 ? i ? d, ui = (?i1 /?1 , ?i2 /?2 , . . . , ?id /?d ), where (?12 , . . . , ?d2 )T := diag(?). It is easy to observe that the scale-invariant PCA is a safe procedure for dimension reduction when variables are measured in different scales. Although there seems no theoretical advantage of scaleinvariant PCA over the PCA under the Gaussian model, in this paper we will show that under a more general Nonparanormal (or Gaussian Copula) model, the scale-invariant PCA will pose much less conditions to make the estimator achieve good theoretical performance. 2 2.2 The Nonparanormal We first introduce two definitions of the Nonparanormal separately defined in [15] and [14]. Definition 2.1 [15]. A random variable X = (X1 , ..., Xd )T with population marginal means and standard deviations ? = (?1 , . . . , ?d )T and ? = (?1 . . . . , ?d )T is said to follow a Nonparanormal distribution N P Nd (?, ?, f ) if and only if there exists a set of univariate monotone transformations f = {fj }dj=1 such that: f (X) = (f1 (X1 ), ..., fd (Xd ))T ? N (?, ?), and ?j2 = ?jj , j = 1, . . . , d. Definition 2.2 [14]. Let f 0 = {fj0 }dj=1 be a set of monotone univariate functions and ?0 ? Rd?d be a positive definite correlation matrix with diag(?0 ) = 1. We say that a d dimensional random variable X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T follows a Nonparanormal distribution, i.e. X ? N P Nd (?0 , f 0 ), if f 0 (X) := (f10 (X1 ), . . . , fd0 (Xd ))T ? N (0, ?0 ). The following lemma proves that two definitions of the Nonparanormal are equivalent. Lemma 2.1. A random variable X ? N P Nd (?0 , f 0 ) if and only if there exist ? = (?1 , . . . , ?d )T , ? = [?jk ] ? Rd?d such that for any 1 ? j, k ? d, E(Xj ) = ?j , Var(Xj ) = ?jj and ?0jk = ? ?jk , and a set of monotone univariate functions f = {fj }dj=1 such that X ? N P Nd (?, ?, f ). ?jj ??kk Proof. Using the connection that fj (x) = ?j + ?j fj0 (x), for j ? {1, 2 . . . , d}. Lemma 2.1 guarantees that the Nonparanormal is defined properly. Definition 2.2 is more appealing because it emphasizes the correlation and hence matches the spirit of the Copula. However, Definition 2.1 enjoys notational simplicity in analyzing the Copula-based LDA and PCA approaches. 2.3 Spearman?s rho Correlation and Covariance Matrices Given n data points x1 , . .q . , xn ? Rd , where xi = (xi1 , . . . , xid )T , we denote by ? bj := Pn Pn 1 1 and ? bj = bj )2 , the marginal sample means and standard devii=1 xij i=1 (xij ? ? n n ations. Because the Nonparanormal distribution preserves the rank of the data, it is natural to use the nonparametric rank-based correlation coefficient estimator, Spearman?s rho, to estimate the latent Pn 1 r = n+1 correlation. In detail, let rij be the rank of xij among x , . . . , x and r ? := ij 1j nj j i=1 n 2 , Pn (rij ?? rj )(rik ?? rk ) i=1 we consider the following statistics: ?bjk = ?Pn , and the correlation maPn 2 2 rj ) i=1 (rij ?? ? rk ) i=1 (rik ?? bjk = 2 sin( ? ?bjk ). The Lemma 2.2, coming from [14], claims that the estimation trix estimator: R 6 can reach the parametric rate. 21 Lemma 2.2 ([14]). When x1 , . . . , xn ?i.i.d N P Nd (?0 , f 0 ), for any n ? log d + 2, ! r b ? ?0 kmax ? 8? log d ? 1 ? 2/d2 . P kR (2.1) n b b We denote by R := [Rjk ] the Spearman?s rho correlation coefficient matrix. In the following let bjk ] be the Spearman?s rho covariance matrix. Sb := [Sbjk ] = [b ?j ? bk R 3 Methods In Figure 1, we randomly generate 10,000 samples from three different types of Nonparanormal  1 0.5 and transdistributions. We suppose that X ? N P N2 (?0 , f 0 ). Here we set ?0 = 0.5 1 formation functions as follows: (A) f10 (x) = x3 and f20 (x) = x1/3 ; (B) f10 (x) = sign(x)x2 and f20 (x) = x3 ; (C) f10 (x) = f20 (x) = ??1 (x). It can be observed that there does not exist a nice geometric explanation now. For example, researchers might wish to conduct PCA separately on different clusters in (A) and (B). For (C), the data look very noisy and a nice major axis might be considered not existing. However, under the Nonparanormal model and realizing that there is a latent Gaussian distribution behind, the geometric intuition of the PCA naturally comes back. In the next section, we will present the model of the COCA and Copula PCA motivated from this observation. 3.1 COCA Model We firstly present the model of the Copula Component Analysis (COCA) method, where the idea of scale-invariant PCA is exploited and we wish to estimate the leading eigenvector of the latent correlation matrix. In particular, the following model M0 (q, Rq , ?0 , f 0 ) is considered: ( x1 , . . . , xn ?i.i.d N P Nd (?0 , f 0 ), M0 (q, Rq , ?0 , f 0 ) : (3.1) ?1 ? Sd?1 ? Bq (Rq ), 3 B C ?1.5 ?1.0 ?0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 ?40 ?20 ?1.5 ?1.0 ?0.5 0 0.0 0.6 0.5 20 1.0 40 1.5 1.0 A ?2 ?1 0 1 2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Figure 1: Scatter plots of three Nonparanormals, X ? N P N2 (?0 , f 0 ). Here ?012 = 0.5 and the transformation functions have the form as follows: (A) f10 (x) = x3 and f20 (x) = x1/3 ; (B) f10 (x) = sign(x)x2 and f20 (x) = x3 ; (C) f10 (x) = f20 (x) = ??1 (x). where ?1 is the leading eigenvectors of the latent correlation matrix ?0 we are interested in estimating, 0 ? q ? 1 and the `q ball Bq (Rq ) is defined as: when q = 0, B0 (R0 ) := {v ? Rd : card(supp(v)) ? R0 }; when 0 < q ? 1, d Bq (Rq ) := {v ? R : kvkqq ? Rq }. (3.2) (3.3) Inspired by the model M0 (q, Rq , ?0 , f 0 ), we consider the following COCA estimator ?e1 , which maximizes the following equation with the constraint that ?e1 ? Bq (Rq ) for some 0 ? q ? 1: b subject to v ? Sd?1 ? Bq (Rq ). ?e1 = arg max v T Rv, (3.4) v?Rd b is the estimated Spearman?s rho correlation coefficient matrix. The corresponding COCA Here R estimator ?e1 can be considered as a nonlinear dimensional reduction procedure and has the potential to gain more flexibility compared with the classical PCA. In Section 4 we will establish the theoretical results on the COCA estimator and will show that it can estimate the latent true dominant eigenvector ?1 in a fast rate and can achieve feature selection consistency. 3.1.1 Copula PCA Model In contrast, we provide another model inspired from the classical PCA method, where we wish to estimate the leading eigenvector of the latent covariance matrix. In particular, the following model M(q, Rq , ?, f ) is considered: ( x1 , . . . , xn ?i.i.d N P Nd (0, ?, f ), M(q, Rq , ?, f ) : (3.5) u1 ? Sd?1 ? Bq (Rq ), where u1 is the leading eigenvector of the covariance matrix ? and it is what we are interested in estimating. The corresponding Copula PCA estimator is: b subject to v ? Sd?1 ? Bq (Rq ), u e1 = arg max v T Sv, (3.6) v?Rd where Sb is the Spearman?s rho covariance coefficient matrix. This procedure is named the Copula PCA. In Section 4, we will show that the Copula PCA requires a much stronger condition than COCA to make u e1 converge to u1 in a fast rate. 3.2 Algorithms In this section we provide three sparse PCA algorithms, where the Spearman?s rho correlation and b and Sb can be directly plugged in to obtain sparse estimators. covariance matrices R Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD) is proposed by [21]. The main idea of the PMD is a bib convex optimization algorithm to the following problem: arg maxu,v uT ?v, subject to kuk22 ? 2 1, kvk2 ? 1, kuk1 ? ?, kvk1 ? ?. The COCA with PMD and Copula PCA with PMD are listed in b Initialize v ? Sd?1 ; (2) Iterate until convergence: the following: (1) Input: A symmetric matrix ?. Tb b subject (a) u ? arg maxu?Rd u ?v subject to kuk1 ? ? and kuk22 ? 1.(b) v ? arg maxv?Rd uT ?v 2 b is either R b or S, b corresponding to the COCA with to kvk1 ? ? and kvk2 ? 1; (3) Output: v. Here ? PMD and Copula PCA with PMD. ? is the tuning parameter. [21] suggest using the first leading 4 b to be the initial value of v. The PMD can be considered as a solver to Equation eigenvector of ? (3.4) and Equation (3.6) with q = 1. The SPCA algorithm is proposed by [25]. The main idea of the SPCA algorithm is to exploit a regression approach to PCA and then utilize lasso and elastic net [24] to calculate a sparse estimator to the leading eigenvector. The COCA with SPCA and Copula PCA with SPCA are listed as follows: b Initialize u ? Sd?1 . (2). Iterate until convergence: (a) v ? (1) Input: A symmetric matrix ?. Tb b b 2 . (3) Output: v/kvk2 . Here ?vk arg minv?Rd (u ? v) ?(u ? v) + ?1 kvk22 + ?2 kvk1 ; (b) u ? ?v/k b is either R b or S, b corresponding to the COCA with SPCA and Copula PCA with SPCA. ?1 ? R ? b to be the and ?2 ? R are two tuning parameters. [25] suggest using the first leading eigenvector of ? initial value of v. The SPCA can be considered as a solver to Equations (3.4) and (3.6) with q = 1. The Truncated Power method (TPower) is proposed by [23]. The main idea is to utilize the power method, but truncate the vector to a `0 ball in each iteration. Actually, TPower can be generalized to a family of algorithms to solve Equation (3.4) when 0 ? q ? 1. We name it the `q Constraint Truncated Power Method (qTPM). Especially, when q = 0, the algorithm qTPM coincides with [23]?s method. The TPower can be considered as a general solver to Equation (3.4) and Equation (3.6) with q ? [0, 1]. In detail, we utilize the classical power method, but in each iteration t we project the intermediate vector xt to the intersection of the d-dimension sphere Sd?1 and the `q ball 1/q with the radius Rq . Detailed algorithms are presented in the long version of this paper [6]. 4 Theoretical Properties In this section we provide the theoretical properties of the COCA and Copula PCA methods. Especially, we are interested in the high dimensional case when d > n. 4.1 Rank-based Correlation and Covariance Matrices Estimation b to ?0 This section is devoted to the statement of our result on quantifying the convergence rate of R b and S to ?. In particular, we establish the results on the `max convergence rates of the Spearman?s rho correlation and covariance matrices to ? and ?0 . For COCA, Lemma 2.2 is enough. For Copula PCA, however, we still need to quantify the convergence rate of Sb to ?. Definition 4.1 Subgaussian Transformation Function Class. Let Z ? R be a random variable following the standard Gaussian distribution. The Subgaussian Transformation Function Class TF(K) is defined as the set of functions {g0 : R ? R} which satisfies that: E|g0 (Z)|m ? m! m + 2 K , ?m?Z . Here it is easy to see that for any function g0 : R ? R, if there exists a constant L < ? such that g0 (z) ? L or g00 (z) ? L or g000 (z) ? L, ? z ? R, then g0 ? TF(K) for some constant K. Then we have the following result, which states that ? can also be recovered in the parametric rate. Lemma 4.1. When x1 , . . . , xn ?i.i.d N P Nd (?, ?, f ), 0 < 1/c0 < min{?j } < max{?j } < c0 < j j ?, for some constant c0 and g := {gj = fj?1 }dj=1 satisfies for all j = 1, . . . , K, gj2 ? T F (K) 21 where K < ? is some constant, we have for any 1 ? j, k ? d, for any n ? log d + 2, P(|Sbjk ? ?jk | > t) ? 2 exp(?c1 nt2 ), (4.1) where c1 is a constant only depending on the choice of K. Remark 4.1. The Lemma 4.1 claims that, under certain constraint on the transformation functions, the latent covariance matrix ? can be recovered using the Spearman?s rho covariance matrix. However, in this case, the marginal distributions of the Nonparanormal are required to be sub-gaussian and cannot be arbitrarily continuous. This makes the Copula PCA a less favored method. 4.2 COCA and Copula PCA This section is devoted to the statement of our main result on the upper bound of the estimated error of the COCA estimator and Copula PCA estimator. Theorem 4.1 (Upper bound for the COCA). Let ?e1 be the global solution to Equation (3.4) and the Model M0 (q,p Rq , ?0 , f 0 ) holds. For any two vectors v1 ? Sd?1 and v2 ? Sd?1 , let 21 | sin ?(v1 , v2 )| = 1 ? (v1T v2 )2 , then we have, for any n ? log d + 2, 2?q !   64? 2 log d 2 2 2 e P sin ?(?1 , ?1 ) ? ?q Rq ? ? 1 ? 1/d2 , (4.2) (?1 ? ?2 )2 n 5 where ?q = 2 ? I(q = 1) + 4 ? I(q = 0) + (1 + ? 3)2 ? I(0 < q < 1). b to ?0 . Detailed Proof. The key idea of the proof is to utilize the `max norm convergence result of R proofs are presented in the long version of this paper [6].   Generally, when Rq and ?1 , ?2 do not scale with (n, d), the rate is OP ( logn d )1?q/2 , which is the parametric rate [16, 20, 18] obtain. When (n, d) goes to infinity, the two dominant eigenvalues ?1 and ?2 will typically go to infinity and will at least be away from zero. Hence, our rate shown in   2?q 2 64? 2 ?2 Equation (4.2) is better than the seemingly more state-of-art rate: ?q Rq2 (?1 ??21)2 ? logn d . The COCA is significantly different from [20] and [18]?s results in the sense that: (1) In theory, the Nonparanormal family can have arbitrary continuous marginal distributions, where a fast rate cannot be obtained using the techniques built for either Gaussian or sub-Gaussian distributions; b to estimate ?0 , (2) In methodology, we utilize the Spearman?s rho correlation coefficient matrix R instead of using the sample correlation matrix S 0 . This procedure has been shown to lose little in rate and will be much more robust under the Nonparanormal model. Given Theorem 4.1, we can immediately obtain a feature selection consistency result. Corollary 4.1 (Feature Selection Consistency of the COCA). Let ?e1 be the global solution to b 0 := Equation (3.4) and the Model M0 (0, R0 , ?0 , f 0 ) holds.q Let ?0 := supp(?1 ) and ? ? log d 2R0 ? supp(?e1 ). If we further have minj??0 |?1j | ? 16?1 ?? n , then for any n ? 21/ log d + 2, 2 0 0 2 b P(? = ? ) ? 1 ? 1/d . Similarly, we can give an upper bound for the estimation rate of the Copula PCA to the true leading eigenvalue u1 of the latent covariance matrix ?. The next theorem provides the detail result. Theorem 4.2 (Upper bound for Copula PCA). Let u e1 be the global solution to Equation (3.6) and the Model M(q, Rq , ?, f ) holds. If g := {gj = fj?1 }dj=1 satisfies gj2 ? T F (K) for all 1 ? j ? d, and 0 < 1/c0 < min{?j } < max{?j } < c0 < ?, then we have, for any n ? 21/ log d + 2, j j  2?q ! 4 log d 2 P sin ?(e u1 , u 1 ) ? ? ? 1 ? 1/d2 , c1 (?1 ? ?2 )2 n ? where ?q = 2 ? I(q = 1) + 4 ? I(q = 0) + (1 + 3)2 ? I(0 < q < 1) and c1 is a constant defined in Equation (4.1), only depending on K. Corollary 4.2 (Feature Selection Consistency of the Copula PCA). Let u e1 be the global solution b := supp(e to Equation (3.6) and the Model M(0, R0 , ?, f ) holds. Let ? := supp(u1 ) and ? u1 ). ?1 d 2 If g := {gj = fj }j=1 satisfies gj ? T F (K) for all 1 ? j ? d, and 0 < 1/c0 < minj {?j } < q ? log d 0 maxj {?j } < c0 < ?, and we further have minj?? |u1j | ? ?c41 (?2R n , then for any 1 ??2 ) b = ?) ? 1 ? 12 . n ? 21 + 2, P(? 2 log d 5 ?q Rq2  d Experiments In this section we investigate the empirical usefulness of the COCA method. Three sparse PCA algorithms are considered: PMD proposed by [21], SPCA proposed by [25] and Truncated Power method (TPower) proposed by [23]. The following three methods are considered: (1) Pearson: the classic high dimensional PCA using the Pearson sample correlation matrix; (2) Spearman: the COCA using the Spearman?s rho correlation coefficient matrix; (3) Oracle: the classic high dimensional PCA using the Pearson sample correlation matrix of the data from the latent Gaussian (perfect without contaminations). 5.1 Numerical Simulations In the simulation study we randomly sample n data points x1 , . . . , xn from the Nonparanormal distribution X ? N P Nd (?0 , f 0 ). Here we consider the setup of d = 100. We follow the same generating scheme as in [19, 23] and [7]. A covariance matrix ? is firstly synthesized through the eigenvalue decomposition, where the first two eigenvalues are given and the corresponding eigenvectors are pre-specified to be sparse. In detail, we suppose that the first two dominant eigenvectors of ?, u1 and u2 , are sparse in the sense that only the ? first s = 10 entries of u1 and the second s = 10 entries of u2 are nonzero and set to be 1/ 10. ?1 = 5, ?2 = 2, 6 ?3 = . . . = ?d = 1. The remaining eigenvectors are chosen arbitrarily. The correlation matrix ?0 is accordingly generated from ?, with ?1 = 4, ?2 = 2.5, ?3 , . . . , ?d ? 1 and the two dominant eigenvectors sparse. To sample data from the Nonparanormal, we also need the transformation functions: f 0 = {fj0 }dj=1 . Here two types of transformation functions are considered: (1) Linear 0 transformation (or no transformation): flinear = {h0 , h0 , . . . , h0 }, where h0 (x) := x; (2) Nonlinear transformation: there exist five univariate monotone functions h1 , h2 , . . . , h5 : R ? R 0 and fnonlinear = {h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , . . .}, where Rh?1 h?1 1 (x) := x, 2 (x) := 1/2 3 ?(x)? ?(t)?(t)dt sign(x)|x| ?1 ?1 ?1 x ?R , h3 (x) := ?R 6 , h4 (x) := ?R , h5 (x) := R 2 ?R |t|?(t)dt R exp(x)? exp(t)?(t)dt . R (exp(y)? exp(t)?(t)dt)2 ?(y)dy t ?(t)dt (?(y)? ?(t)?(t)dt) ?(y)dy Here ? and ? are defined to be the probability density and cu- mulative distribution functions of the standard Gaussian. h1 , . . . , h5 are defined such that for any ?1 Z ? N (0, 1), E(h?1 j (Z)) = 0 and Var(hj (Z)) = 1 ? j ? {1, . . . , 5}. We then generate n = 100, 200 or 500 data points from: 0 0 [Scheme 1] X ? N P Nd (?0 , flinear ) where flinear = {h0 , h0 , . . . , h0 } and ?0 is defined as above. 0 0 [Scheme 2] X ? N P Nd (?0 , fnonlinear ) where fnonlinear = {h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , . . .}. To evaluate the robustness of different methods, we adopt a similar data contamination procedure as in [14]. Let r ? [0, 1) represents the proportion of samples being contaminated. For each dimension, we randomly select bnrc entries and replace them with either 5 or -5 with equal probability. The final data matrix we obtained is X ? Rn?d . The PMD, SPCA and TPower algorithms are then employed on X to computer the estimated leading eigenvector ?e1 . Under the Scheme 1 and Scheme 2 with different levels of contamination (r = 0 or 0.05), we repeatedly generate the data matrix X for 1,000 times and compute the averaged False Positive Rates and False Negative Rates using a path of tuning parameters ?. The feature selection performances of different methods are then evaluated. The corresponding ROC curves are presented in Figure 2. More quantitative results are provided in the long version of this paper [6]. It can be observed that when r = 0 and X is exactly Gaussian, Pearson,Spearman and Oracle can all recover the sparsity pattern perfectly. However, when r > 0, the performances of Pearson significantly decrease, while Spearman is still very close to the Oracle. In Scheme 2, even when r = 0, Pearson cannot recover the support set of ?1 , while Spearman can still recover the sparsity pattern almost perfectly. When r > 0, the performance of Spearman is still very close to the Oracle. r=0 0.4 0.6 FPR 0.8 1.0 0.6 FPR 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.4TPower0.6 0.8 0.0 FPR 0.4 0.6 FPR 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.4TPower0.6 0.8 1.0 FPR 0.8 TPR 0.6 0.8 TPR 0.4 0.2 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 1.0 0.2 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 FPR 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 FPR 0.4 0.2 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.4 SPCA 0.6 TPR 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.2 0.4 FPR 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 SPCA 0.6 TPower 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.2 0.0 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 TPR 1.0 FPR 0.0 0.2 0.4 TPR 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 PMD 0.6 r = 0.05 TPower 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 FPR 1.0 0.2 0.4 TPR 1.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.4PMD r=0 SPCA 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 r = 0.05 SPCA 0.2 0.2 0.4 TPR 0.6 0.8 1.0 PMD Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 FPR 0.8 1.0 Pearson Spearman Oracle 0.0 r = 0.05 PMD 0.0 r=0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 FPR Figure 2: ROC curves for the PMD, SPCA and Truncated Power method (the left two, the middle two, the right two) with linear (no) and nonlinear transformation (top, bottom) and data contamination at different levels (r = 0, 0.05). Here n = 100 and d = 100. 5.2 Large-scale Genomic Data Analysis In this section we investigate the performance of Spearman compared with the Pearson using one of the largest microarray datasets [17]. In summary, we collect in all 13,182 publicly available microarray samples from Affymetrixs HGU133a platform. The raw data contain 20,248 probes and 13,182 samples belonging to 2,711 tissue types (e.g., lung cancers, prostate cancer, brain tumor etc.). There are at most 1,599 samples and at least 1 sample belonging to each tissue type. We merge the probes corresponding to the same gene. There are remaining 12,713 genes and 13,182 samples. This dataset is non-Gaussian (see the long version of this paper [6]). The main purpose of this experiment is to compare the performance of the COCA with the classical high dimensional PCA. We utilize the Truncated Power method proposed by [23] to achieve the sparse estimated dominant eigenvectors. 7 We adopt the same idea of data-preprocessing as in [14]. In particular, we firstly remove the batch effect by applying the surrogate variable analysis proposed by [13]. We then extract the top 2,000 genes with the highest marginal standard deviations. There are, accordingly, 2,000 genes left and the data matrix we are focusing is 2, 000 ? 13, 182. We then explore several tissue types with the largest sample size: (1) Breast tumor, 1,599 samples; (2) B cell lymphoma, 213 samples; (3) Prostate tumor, 148 samples; (4) Wilms tumor, 143 samples. breast tumor prostate tumor wilms tumor ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ???? ?? ? ? ? ?? ???? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?10 ?5 0 5 10 15 ?20 ?15 ?10 ?5 0 5 10 15 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?15 ?10 ?5 0 5 10 ?10 0 10 20 Principal Component 1 Principal Component 1 Principal Component 1 Principal Component 1 b cell lymphoma breast tumor prostate tumor wilms tumor 2 4 ?15 ? ? ? ? ? ?20 ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?10 ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 10 5 ? ?10 ? ? ? ? ? ? 5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0 ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? Principal Component 2 ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?10 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 10 10 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? Principal Component 2 ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? 0 ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?10 Principal Component 2 ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Principal Component 2 ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? 15 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 10 20 20 20 b cell lymphoma ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ??? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ????? ? ?? ?? ??? ??? ? ? ????? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ??? ????? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ???? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ?? ?????? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ??? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ???? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ????? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ???? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?4 ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?4 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2 ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? 0 ? ? ? ? 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Principal Component 2 ? ?? ? ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? Principal Component 2 ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Principal Component 2 2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2 ? ? ? ? Principal Component 2 ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 4 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2 0 Principal Component 1 2 4 ?4 ?2 0 2 4 ?4 ?4 ? ?4 ?4 Principal Component 1 ?2 0 Principal Component 1 2 ?2 0 2 4 6 Principal Component 1 Figure 3: The scatter plots of the first two principal components of the dataset. The Spearman versus Pearson are compared (top to bottom). b cell lymphoma, breast tumor, prostate tumor and Wilms tumor are explored (from left to right). Each black point represents a sample and each red point represents a sample belonging to the corresponding tissue type. For each tissue type listed above, we apply the COCA (Spearman) and the classic high dimensional PCA (Pearson) on the data belonging to this specific tissue type and obtain the first two dominant sparse eigenvectors. Here we set R0 = 100 for both eigenvectors. For COCA, we do a normal score transformation on the original dataset. We subsequently project the whole dataset to the first two principal components using the obtained eigenvectors. The according 2-dimension visualization is illustrated in Figure 3. In Figure 3 each black point represents a sample and each red point represents a sample belonging to the corresponding tissue type. It can be observed that, in 2D plots learnt by the COCA, the red points are averagely more dense and more close to the border of the sample cluster. The first phenomenon indicates that the COCA has the potential to preserve more common information shared by samples from the same tissue type. The second phenomenon indicates that the COCA has the potential to differentiate samples from different tissue types more efficiently. 6 Discussion and Comparison with Related Work A similar principal component analysis procedure is proposed by [7], in which they advocate the use of the transformed Kendall?s tau correlation matrix (instead of the Spearman?s rho correlation matrix as in the current paper) for estimating the sparse leading eigenvectors. Though both papers are working on principal component analysis, the core ideas are quite different: Firstly, the analysis in [7] is based on a different distribution family called transelliptical, while COCA and Copula PCA are based on the Nonparanormal family. Secondly, by improving the modeling flexibility, in [7] there does not exist a scale-variant variant since it is hard to quantify the transformation functions. In contrast, by introducing the subgaussian transformation function family, the current paper provides sufficient conditions for Copula PCA to achieve parametric rates. Thirdly, the method in [7] cannot explicitly conduct data visualization, due to the fact that the latent elliptical distribution is unspecified and accordingly they cannot accurately estimate the marginal transformations. For Copula PCA, we are able to provide the projection visualization such as in the experiment part of this paper. Moreover, via quantifying a sharp convergence rate in estimating the marginal transformations, we can provide the convergence rates in estimating the principal components. Due to space limit, we refer to the longer version of this paper [6] for more details. Finally, we recommend using the Spearman?s rho instead of the Kendall?s tau in estimating the correlation coefficients provided that the Nonparanormal model holds. This is because Spearman?s rho is statistically more efficient than Kendall?tau within the Nonparanormal family. This research was supported by NSF award IIS-1116730. 8 References [1] A.A. Amini and M.J. Wainwright. High-dimensional analysis of semidefinite relaxations for sparse principal components. In Information Theory, 2008. ISIT 2008. IEEE International Symposium on, pages 2454?2458. IEEE, 2008. [2] T.W Anderson. An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis, volume 2. Wiley New York, 1958. [3] A. d?Aspremont, F. Bach, and L.E. Ghaoui. Optimal solutions for sparse principal component analysis. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:1269?1294, 2008. [4] A. d?Aspremont, L. El Ghaoui, M.I. Jordan, and G.R.G. Lanckriet. A direct formulation for sparse PCA using semidefinite programming. Computer Science Division, University of California, 2004. [5] B. Flury. A first course in multivariate statistics. Springer Verlag, 1997. [6] F. Han and H. Liu. High dimensional semiparametric scale-invariant principal component analysis. Technical Report, 2012. [7] F. Han and H. Liu. Tca: Transelliptical principal component analysis for high dimensional non-gaussian data. Technical Report, 2012. [8] T. Hastie and W. Stuetzle. Principal curves. Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 502?516, 1989. [9] I.M. Johnstone and A.Y. Lu. On consistency and sparsity for principal components analysis in high dimensions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 104(486):682?693, 2009. [10] I.T. Jolliffe. Principal component analysis, volume 2. Wiley Online Library, 2002. [11] I.T. Jolliffe, N.T. Trendafilov, and M. Uddin. A modified principal component technique based on the lasso. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 12(3):531?547, 2003. [12] M. Journ?ee, Y. Nesterov, P. Richt?arik, and R. Sepulchre. Generalized power method for sparse principal component analysis. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:517?553, 2010. [13] J.T. Leek and J.D. Storey. Capturing heterogeneity in gene expression studies by surrogate variable analysis. PLoS Genetics, 3(9):e161, 2007. [14] H. Liu, F. Han, M. Yuan, J. Lafferty, and L. Wasserman. High dimensional semiparametric gaussian copula graphical models. Annals of Statistics, 2012. [15] H. Liu, J. Lafferty, and L. Wasserman. The nonparanormal: Semiparametric estimation of high dimensional undirected graphs. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:2295?2328, 2009. [16] Z. Ma. Sparse principal component analysis and iterative thresholding. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1112.2432, 2011. [17] Matthew McCall, Benjamin Bolstad, and Rafael Irizarry. Frozen robust multiarray analysis (frma). Biostatistics, 11:242?253, 2010. [18] D. Paul and I.M. Johnstone. Augmented sparse principal component analysis for high dimensional data. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1202.1242, 2012. [19] H. Shen and J.Z. Huang. Sparse principal component analysis via regularized low rank matrix approximation. Journal of multivariate analysis, 99(6):1015?1034, 2008. [20] V.Q. Vu and J. Lei. Minimax rates of estimation for sparse pca in high dimensions. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1202.0786, 2012. [21] D.M. Witten, R. Tibshirani, and T. Hastie. A penalized matrix decomposition, with applications to sparse principal components and canonical correlation analysis. Biostatistics, 10(3):515?534, 2009. [22] L. Xue and H. Zou. Regularized rank-based estimation of high-dimensional nonparanormal graphical models. Annals of Statistics, 2012. [23] X.T. Yuan and T. Zhang. Truncated power method for sparse eigenvalue problems. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1112.2679, 2011. [24] H. Zou and T. Hastie. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 67(2):301?320, 2005. [25] H. Zou, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Sparse principal component analysis. Journal of computational and graphical statistics, 15(2):265?286, 2006. 9
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The VC-Dimension versus the Statistical Capacity of Multilayer Networks Chuanyi Ji "and Demetri Psaltis Department of Electrical Engineering California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA 91125 Abstract A general relationship is developed between the VC-dimension and the statistical lower epsilon-capacity which shows that the VC-dimension can be lower bounded (in order) by the statistical lower epsilon-capacity of a network trained with random samples. This relationship explains quantitatively how generalization takes place after memorization, and relates the concept of generalization (consistency) with the capacity of the optimal classifier over a class of classifiers with the same structure and the capacity of the Bayesian classifier. Furthermore, it provides a general methodology to evaluate a lower bound for the VC-dimension of feedforward multilayer neural networks. This general methodology is applied to two types of networks which are important for hardware implementations: two layer (N - 2L - 1) networks with binary weights, integer thresholds for the hidden units and zero threshold for the output unit, and a single neuron ((N - 1) networks) with binary weigths and a zero threshold. Specifically, we obtain OC~L) ::; d 2 ::; O(W), and d 1 ""' O(N). Here W is the total number of weights of the (N - 2L - 1) networks. d 1 and d2 represent the VCdimensions for the (N - 1) and (N - 2L - 1) networks respectively. 1 Introduction The information capacity and the VC-dimension are two important quantities that characterize multilayer feedforward neural networks. The former characterizes their "Present Address: Department of Electrical Computer and System Engineering, Rensselaer Poly tech Institute, Troy, NY 12180. 928 The VC-Dimension versus the Statistical Capacity of Multilayer Networks memorization capability, while the latter represents the sample complexity needed for generalization. Discovering their relationships is of importance for obtaining a better understanding of the fundamental properties of multilayer networks in learning and generalization. In this work we show that the VC-dimension of feedforward multilayer neural networks, which is a distribution-and network-parameter-indenpent quantity, can be lower bounded (in order) by the statistical lower epsilon-capacity C; (McEliece et.al, (1987?, which is a distribution-and network-dependent quantity, when the samples are drawn from two classes: 0 1 (+1) and 02{-1). The only requirement on the distribution from which samples are drawn is that the optimal classification error achievable, the Bayes error Pbe, is greater than zero. Then we will show that the VC-dimension d and the statistical lower epsilon-capacity C; are related by C; I ~ (1) Ad, I I I where (: = P eo - (: for 0 < (: ~ P eo ; or (: = Pbe - (: for 0 < (: ~ Pbe. Here (: is the error tolerance, and P eo represents the optimal error rate achievable on the class of classifiers considered. It is obvious that P eo ~ Pbe' The relation given in Equation (1) is non-trivial if Pbe > 0, P eo ~ / or Pbe ~ / so that (: is a nonnegative quantity. Ad is called the universal sample bound for generalization, where 1281n-+ A < 12 ' is a positive constant. When the sample complexity exceeds Ad, all the networks of the same architechture for all distributions of the samples can generalize with almost probability 1 for d large. A special case of interest, in which Pbe = ~, corresponds to random assignments of samples. Then C; represents the random storage capacity which characterizes the memorizing capability of networks. ( Although the VC-dimension is a key parameter in generalization , there exists no systematic way of finding it. The relationship we have obtained, however, brings concomitantly a constructive method of finding a lower bound for the VC-dimension of multilayer networks. That is, if the weights of a network are properly constructed using random samples drawn from a chosen distribution, the statistical lower epsilon-capacity can be evaluated and then utilized as bounds for the VCdimension. In this paper we will show how this constructive approach cQntributes to finding lower bounds of the VC-dimension of multilayer networks with binary weights. 2 2.1 A Relationship Between the VC-Dimension and the Statistical Capacity Definition of the Statistical Capacity Consider a network s whose weights are constructed from M random samples belonging to two classes. Let r{ s) = ~, where Z is the total number of samples classified incorrectly by the network s. Then the random variable r( s) is the training error rate. Let (2) 929 930 Ji and Psaltis where 0 < ? ~ 1. Then the statistical lower epsilon-capacity (statistical capacity in short) C; is the maximum M such that Pf(M) ;::: 1 - Tj, where Tj can be arbitrarily small for sufficiently large N. Roughly speaking, the statistical lower epsilon-capacity defined here can be regarded as a sharp transition point on the curve Pf(M) shown in Fig.1. When the number of samples used is below this sharp transition, the network can memorize them perfectly. 2.2 The Universal Sample Bound for Generalization Let Pe(xls) be the true probability of error for the network s. Then the generalization error LlE(s) satisfies LlE(s) =1 r(s) - Pe(xls) I. We can show that the probability for the generalization error to exceed a given small quantity ( satisfies the following relation. Theorem 1 Pr(maxLlE(s) sES > /) ~ (3) h(2M;d,l), where h(2M; d, <') = { . ezther 2M 1; 6 (2M)" d! _ .,2 M ? e ---r-, :s d, or 6 (2M)" d! .,2 M e - -s -;::: 1&2M > d, otherwise. Here S is a class of networks with the same architecture. The function h(2M; d, (') has one sharp transition occurring at Ad shown in Fig.l, where A is a constant ,2 satisfying the equation A In(2A) + 1 - TA O. = = This theorem says that when the number M of samples used exceeds Ad, generalization happens with probability 1. Since Ad is a distribution-and network-parameterindependent quantity, we call it the universal sample bound for generalization. 2.3 A Relationship between The VC-Dimension and C; Roughly speaking, since both the statistical capacity and the VC-dimension represent sharp transition points, it is natural to ask whether they are related. The relationship can actually be given through the theorem below. Theorem 2 Let samples belonging to two classes 0 1 (+1) and O 2 (-1) be drawn independently from some distribution. The only requirement on the distributions considered is that the Bayes error Pbe satisfies 0 < Pbe ~ Let 5 be a class of feedforward multilayer networks with a fixed structure consisting of threshold elements and SI be one network in 5, where the weights of S1 are constructed from M (training) samples drawn from one distribution as specified above. For a given distribution, let Peo be the optimal error rate achievable on Sand P be be the Bayes error rate. Then !. , Pr(r(sI) < Peo - ( ) :s h(2M; d, ( ,), (4) and (5) The VC-Dimension versus the Statistical Capacity of Multilayer Networks I h(2M;d,E' 1 M Figure 1: Two sharp transition points for the capacity and the universal sample bound for generalization. where f(S1) is equal to the training error rate of S1. (It is also called the resubstitution error estimator in the pattern recognition literature.) These relations are nontrivial if P eo > /, Pbe > / and (' > 0 small. The key idea of this result is illustrated in Fig.1. That is, the sharp transition which stands for the lower epsilon-capacity is below the sharp transition for the universal sample bound for generalization. To interpret this relation, let us compare Equation (2) and Equation (5) and examine the range of (: and (' respectively. Since (', which is initially given in Inequality (3), represents a bound on the generalization error, it is usually quite small. For most of practical problems, Pbe is small also. If the structure of the class of networks is properly chosen so that P eo ~ Pbe, then ( = P eo - (' will be a sma.ll quantity. Although the epsilon-capacity is a valid quantity depending on M for any network in the class, for M sufficiently large, the meaningful networks to be considered through this relation is only a small subset in the class whose true probability of error is close to Peo . That is, this small subset contains only those networks which can approximate the best classifier contained in this class . For a special case in which samples are assigned randomly to two classes with equal probability, we have a result stated in Corollary 1. Corollary 1 Let samples be drawn independently from some distribution and then assigned randomly to two classes fh(+I) and O2 (-1) with equal probability. This is equivalent to the case that the two class conditional distributions have complete overlap with one another. That is, Pr(x 101) = Pr(x I O 2 ). Then the Bayes error is Using the same notation as in the above theorem, we have !. C"l2 - ( < Ad. I (6) 931 932 Ji and Psaltis Although the distributions specified here give an uninteresting case for classification purposes, we will see later that the random statistical epsilon-capacity in Inequality (6) can be used to characterize the memorizing capability of networks, and to formulate a constructive approach to find a lower bound for the VC-dimension. 3 Bounds for the VC-Dimension of Two Networks with Binary Weights 3.1 A Constructive Methodology One of the applications of this relation is that it provides a general constructive approach to find a lower bound for the VC-dimension for a class of networks. Specifically, using the relationship given in Inequality (6), the procedures can be described as follows. 1) Select a distribution. 2) Draw samples independently from the chosen distribution, and then assign them randomly to two classes. 3) Evaluate the lower epsilon-capacity and then use it as a lower bound for the VC-dimension. Two example are given below to demonstrate how this general approach can be applied to find lower bounds for the VC-dimension. 3.2 Bounds for Two-Layer Networks with Binary Weigths Two-layer (N - 2L - 1) networks with binary weights and integer thresholds are considered in this section. 3.2.1 A lower Bound The construction of the network we consider is motivated by the one used by Baum (Baum, 1988) in finding the capacity for two layer networks with real weights. Although this particular network will fail if the accuracy of the weights and the thresholds is reduced, the idea of using the grandmother-cell type of network will be adopted to construct our network. We consider a two layer binary network with 2L hidden threshold units and one output threshold unit shown in Fig.2 a). The weights at the second layer are fixed and equal to +1 and -1 alternately. The hidden units are allowed to have integer thresholds in [-N, N], and the threshold for the output unit is zero. Let Xr(m) = (x~;n), .. " x~;) be a N dimensional random vector, where x~;n)'s are independent random variables taking (+ 1) and (-1) with equal probability ~, 0 ~ I ::; L, and 0 ::; m ::; M. Consider the Ith pair of hidden units. The weights at the first layer for this pair of hidden units are equal. Let Wri denote the weight from the ith input to these two hidden units, then we have The VC-Dimension versus the Statistical Capacity of Multilayer Networks 1 + + + 2L + + + + N ith (b) (a) Figure 2: a) The two-layer network with binary weights. b) Illustration on how a pair of hidden units separates samples. M W/i = sgn(a/ L x~r?), (7) m=l where sgn(x) = 1 if x> 0, and -1 otherwise. a/'s, 1 ~ I ~ L, which are independent random variables which take on two values +1 or -1 with equal probability, represent the random assignments of the LM samples into two classes Ol( +1) and 02( -1). The thresholds for these two units are different and are given as (8) where 0 < k < 1, and t/:J: correspond to the thresholds for the units with weight + 1 and -1 at the second layer respectively. Fig.2 b) illustrates how this network works. Each pair of hidden units forms two parallel hyperplanes separated by the two thresholds, which will generates a presynaptic input either +2 or (-2) to the output unit only for the samples stored in this pair which fall in between the planes when a/ equals either + 1 or -1, and a presynaptic input 0 for the samples falling outside. When the samples as well as the parallel hyperplanes are random, with a certain probability they will fall either between a pair of parallel hyperplanes or outside. Therefore, statistical analysis is needed to obtain the lower epsilon-capacity. 933 934 Ji and Psaltis Theorem 3 A lower bound c~ , 2-( ,for the lower epsilon-capacity c~2-( ,for this network is: , (1-k)2NL c; , ~-( (9) 3.2.2 An Upper Bound Since the total number of possible mappings of two layer (N -2L-1) networks with binary weights and integer thresholds ranging in [-N, N] is bounded by 2w +L log 2N, the VC-dimension d 2 is upper bounded by W + L log 2N, which is in the order of W. Then d2 ~ O(W). By combining both the upper and lower bounds, we have (10) 3.3 Bounds for One-Layer Networks with Binary Weigths The one-layer network we consider here is equivalent to one hidden unit in the above (N - 2L -1) network. Specifically, the weight from the i-th input unit to the neuron IS M Wi = sgn( L O'mx~m?, (11) m=l where (1 < i :::; N), x~m) 's and O'm's are independent and equally probable binary(?1) random variables, which represent elements of N-dimensional sample vectors and their random assignments to two classes respectively. Theorem 4 The lower epsilon-capacity C-1 2-( Then by Corollary 1 we have O(N) one-layer (N - 1) networks. c~ 2-( N "" -22' - ,"" ~ ,of this network satisfies 7r (: O(dd, where d1 is the VC-dimension of Using the similar counting arguement, an upper bound can be obtained as d 1 Then combining the lower and upper bounds, we have d1 "" O(N) 4 (12) ~ N . Discussions The general relationship we have drawn between the VC-dimension and the statistical lower epsilon-capacity provides a new view on the sample complexity for generalization. Specifically, it has two implications to learning and generalziation. 1) For random assignments of the samples (Pbe = t), the relationship confirms that generalization occurs after memorization, since the statistical lower epsilon-capacity The VC-Dimension versus the Statistical Capacity of Multilayer Networks for this case is the random storage capacity which charaterizes the memorizing capability of networks and it is upper bounded by the universal sample bound for generalization. 2) For cases where the Bayes error is smaller than ~, the relationship indicates that an appropriate choice of a network structure is very important. If a network structure is properly chosen so that the optimal achievable error rate Peo is close to the Bayes error Peb , than the optimal network in this class is the one which has the largest lower epsilon-capacity. Since a suitable structure can hardly be chosen a priori due to the lack of knowledge about the underlying distribution, searching for network structures as well as weight values becomes necessary. Similar idea has been addressed by Devroye (Devroye, 1988) and by Vapnik (Vapnik, 1982) for structural minimization. We have applied this relation as a general constructive approach to obtain lower bounds for the VC-dimension of two-layer and one-layer networks with binary interconnections. For the one-layer networks, the lower bound is tight and matches the upper bound. For the two-layer networks, the lower bound is smaller than the upper bound (in order) by a In factor. In an independent work by Littlestone (Littlestone, 1988), the VC-dimension of so-called DNF expressions were obtained. Since a.ny DNF expression can be implemented by a two layer network of threshold units with binary weights and integer thresholds, this result is equivalent to showing that the VC-dimension of such networks is O(W). We believe that the In factor in our lower bound is due to the limitations of the grandmother-cell type of networks used in our construction. Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank Yaser Abu-Mostafa and David Haussler for helpful discussions. The support of AFOSR and DARPA is gratefully acknowledged. References E. Baum. (1988) On the Capacity of Multilayer Perceptron. J. of Complexity, 4:193-215. L. Devroye. (1988) Automatic Pattern Recognition: A Study of Probability of Error. IEEE Trans. on Pattern Recognition and Machine Intelligence, Vol. 10, No.4: 530-543. N. Littlestone. (1988) Learning Quickly When Irrelevant Attributes Abound: A New Linear-Threshold Algorithm. Machine Learning 2: 285-318. R.J . McEliece, E.C . Posner, E.R. Rodemich, S.S . Venkatesh. (1987) The Capacity of the Hopfield Associative Memory. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, Vol. IT-33, No. 4,461-482. V.N . Vapnik (1982) Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data, New York: Springer-Verlag. 935
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Smooth-projected Neighborhood Pursuit for High-dimensional Nonparanormal Graph Estimation Kathryn Roeder Department of Statistics Carnegie Mellon University Tuo Zhao Department of Computer Science Johns Hopkins University Han Liu Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering Princeton University Abstract We introduce a new learning algorithm, named smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit, for estimating high dimensional undirected graphs. In particularly, we focus on the nonparanormal graphical model and provide theoretical guarantees for graph estimation consistency. In addition to new computational and theoretical analysis, we also provide an alternative view to analyze the tradeoff between computational efficiency and statistical error under a smoothing optimization framework. Numerical results on both synthetic and real datasets are provided to support our theory. 1 Introduction We consider the undirected graph estimation problem for a d-dimensional random vector X = (X1 , ..., Xd )T (Lauritzen, 1996; Wille et al., 2004; Blei and Lafferty, 2007; Honorio et al., 2009). More specifically, let V be the set that contains nodes representing the d variables in X, and E be the set that contains edges representing the conditional independence relationship among X1 , ..., Xd , we say that the distribution of X is Markov to G = (V, E) if Xi is independent of Xj given X\{i,j} for all (i, j) ? / E, where X\{i,j} = {Xk : k 6= i, j}. Our goal is to recover G based on n independent observations of X. Most existing methods for high dimensional graph estimation assume that the random vector X follows a Gaussian distribution, i.e., X ? N (?, ?). Under this parametric assumption, the graph estimation problem can be solved by estimating the sparsity pattern of the precision matrix ? = ??1 , i.e., the nodes i and j are connected if and only if ?ij 6= 0. The problem of estimating the sparsity pattern of ? is also called covariance selection in Dempster (1972). There are two major approaches for learning high dimensional Gaussian graphical models: (i) graphical lasso (Yuan and Lin, 2007; Friedman et al., 2007; Banerjee et al., 2008) and (ii) neighborhood pursuit (Meinshausen and B?uhlmann, 2006). The graphical lasso maximizes the `1 -penalized Gaussian likelihood and simultaneously estimates the precision matrix ? and graph G. In contrast, the neighborhood pursuit method maximizes the `1 -penalized pseudo-likelihood and can only estimate the graph G. Scalable software packages such as glasso and huge have been developed to implement these algorithms (Friedman et al., 2007; Zhao et al., 2012). Theoretically, both methods are consistent in graph recovery for Gaussian models under certain regularity conditions. However, Ravikumar et al. (2011) suspect that the neighborhood pursuit approach has a better sample complexity in graph recovery than the graphical lasso. Moreover, these two methods are often observed to behave differently on real datasets in practical applications. In Liu et al. (2009), an semiparametric nonparanormal model is proposed to relax the restrictive normality assumption. More specifically, they assume that there exists a set of strictly monotone trans1 formations f = (fj )dj=1 , such that the transformed random vector f (X) = (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T follows a Gaussian distribution, i.e., f (X) ? N (0, ??1 ). Liu et al. (2009) show that for the nonparanormal distribution, the graph G can also be estimated by examining the sparsity pattern of ?. Different methods have been proposed to infer the nonparanormal model in high dimensions. In Liu et al. (2012), a rank-based estimator named nonparanormal SKEPTIC is proposed to directly estimate ?. Their main idea is to calculate a rank-correlation matrix (either based on the Spearman?s rho or Kendall?s tau correlation) and plug the estimated correlation matrix into the graphical lasso to estimate ? and graph G. Such a procedure has been proven to be robust and achieve the same parametric rates of convergence as the graphical lasso (Liu et al., 2012). However, how to combine the nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator with the neighborhood pursuit approach is still an open problem. The main challenge is that the possible indefiniteness of the rank-based correlation matrix estimates could lead to a non-convex computational formulation. Such potential non-convexity challenges both computational and theoretical analysis. In this paper, we bridge this gap by proposing a novel smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit method. The main idea is to project the possibly indefinite nonparanormal SKEPTIC correlation matrix estimator into the cone of all positive semi-definite matrices with respect to a smoothed elementwise `? -norm. Such a projection step is closely related to the dual smoothing approach in Nesterov (2005). We provide both computational and theoretical analysis of the derived algorithm. Computationally, our proposed smoothed elementwise `? -norm has nice structure so that?we can develop an efficient fast proximal gradient solver with a provable convergence rate O(1/ ) ( is the desired accuracy of the objective value, Nesterov (1988)). Theoretically, we provide sufficient conditions to guarantee that the proposed smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit approach is graph estimation consistent. In addition to new computational and statistical analysis, we further provide an alternative view to analyze the fundamental tradeoff between computational efficiency and statistical error under the smoothing optimization framework. Existing literature (Nesterov, 2005; Chen et al., 2012) considers the dual smoothing approach as a tradeoff between computational efficiency and approximation error. To avoid a large approximation error, they need to restrict the smoothness and obtain a slower ? rate (O(1/) vs. O(1/ )). However, we directly consider the statistical error introduced by the smoothing approach, and show that the obtained estimator preserves the good statistical properties without losing the computational efficiency. Thus we get the good sides of both worlds. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: The next section reviews the nonparanormal SKEPTIC in Liu et al. (2012); Section 3 introduces the smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit and derives the fast proximal gradient algorithm; Section 4 explores the statistical properties of the procedure; Section 5 and 6 present results on on both simulated and real datasets. Due to the space limit, most of technical details are put in a significantly extended version of this paper (Zhao et al., 2013). In addition, Zhao et al. (2013) also contains more thorough numerical experiments and detailed comparison with other competitors. 2 Background T d We first introduce some notation. norms: P 2Let v = (v1 , . . . , vd ) ? R , we define the vectord?d P 2 ||v||1 = |v |, ||v|| = v , and ||v|| = max |v |. Let A = [A ] ? R and j ? j i jk 2 j j j d?d B = [B ] ? R be two symmetric matrices, we define the matrix operator norms: ||A|| 1 = Pjk P maxk j |Ajk |, ||A||? = maxj k |Ajk |, ||A||2 = max||v||2 =1 ||Av||2 and elementwise norms P P |||A|||1 = j,k |Ajk |, |||A|||? = maxj,k |Ajk |, ||A||2F = j,k |Ajk |2 . We denote ?min (A) and ?max (A) as the smallest and largest eigenvalues of A. The inner product of A and B is denoted by A, B = tr(AT B), where tr(?) is the trace operator. We denote the subvector of v with the j th entry removed by v\j = (v1 , . . . , vj?1 , vj+1 , . . . , vd )T ? Rd?1 . In a similar notion, we denote the ith row of A with its j th entry removed by Ai,\j . If I is a set of indices, then the sub-matrix of A with both column and row indices in I is denoted by AII . We then introduce the nonparanormal graphical model. The nonparanormal (nonparametric normal) distribution was initially motivated by the sparse additive models (Ravikumar et al., 2009). It aims at separately modeling the marginal distribution and conditional independence structure. The formal definition is as follows, 2 Definition 2.1 (Nonparanormal Distribution Liu et al. (2009)). Let f = {f1 , ..., fd } be a collection of non-decreasing univariate functions and ?? ? Rd?d be a correlation matrix with diag(?? ) = 1. We say a d-dimensional random variable X = (X1 , ..., Xd )T follows a nonparanormal distribution, denoted by X ? N P Nd (f, ?? ), if f (X) = (f1 (X1 ), ..., fd (Xd ))T ? N (0, ?? ). (2.1) The nonparanormal family is equivalent to the Gaussian copula family for continuous distributions (Klaassen and Wellner, 1997; Tsukahara, 2005; Liu et al., 2009). Similar to the Gaussian graphical model, the nonparanormal graphical model also encodes the conditional independence graph by the sparsity pattern of the precision matrix ?? = (?? )?1 . More details can be found in (Liu et al., 2009). Recently, Liu et al. (2012) propose a rank-based procedure, named nonparanormal SKEPTIC, for learning nonparanromal graphical models. More specifically, let x1 , ..., xn with xi = (xi1 , ..., xid )T be n independent observations of X, we define the Spearman?s rho and Kendall?s tau correlation coefficients as Pn i ?j )(rki ? r?k ) i=1 (rj ? r Spearman?s rho : ?bjk = qP , (2.2) Pn n i ?j )2 ? i=1 (rki ? r?k )2 i=1 (rj ? r    X 0 0 2 sign xij ? xij xik ? xik , (2.3) Kendall?s tau : ?bjk = n(n ? 1) 0 i<i Pn where rji denotes the rank of xij among x1j , . . . , xnj and r?j = n1 i=1 rji = (n + 1)/2. Both the Spearman?s rho and Kendall?s tau correlations are rank-based and invariant to univariate monotone b ? = [S b ? ] ? Rd?d and transformations. The nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimators are defined as S jk b ? = [S b ? ] ? Rd?d calculated from S jk     b ? = sin ? ?bjk . b ? = 2 sin ? ?bjk and S (2.4) S jk jk 6 2 b ? and S b ? avoid explicitly calculating Here the sin(?) transformations correct the population bias. S d the marginal transformation functions {fj }j=1 and has been shown to achieve the optimal parametb ? and S b ? have very ric rates of convergence (Liu et al., 2012). Since Liu et al. (2012) suggest that S b similar performance, for notational simplicity, we simply omit the superscript (? and ?), and use S instead. Theoretically, Liu et al. (2012) establish the following concentration bound of the nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator, which is a sufficient condition to achieve graph estimation consistency in high dimensions. Lemma 2.2 (Nonparanormal SKEPTIC, Liu et al. (2012)). Given the nonparanormal SKEPTIC estib for large enough n, we have S b satisfying mator S,   b ? ?? |||? ? 8?? ? 1 ? d2 exp(?n?2 ). (2.5) P |||S In the next section we will introduce our new smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit method and show that it also admits a similar concentration bound. 3 Smooth-Projected Neighborhood Pursuit Similar to the neighborhood pursuit, our smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit also solves a collection of `1 -penalized least square problems as follows, b \j,j = argmin BT S e eT B \j,j \j,\j B\j,j ? 2S\j,j B\j,j + ?kB\j,j k1 for all j = 1, ..., d, (3.1) Bj,j =0 e is a positive semi-definite replacement of the nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator S. b (3.1) where S can be efficiently solved by existing solvers such as the coordinate descent algorithm (Friedman et al., 2007). Let Ij denote a set of vertices, that are the neighbors of of node j, and Jj denote a set b jk 6= 0} and Jbj = {k : B b jk = 0}. Thus we can of vertices, that are not, then we obtain Ibj = {k : B b b eventually get the graph estimator G by combining all Ij ?s. 3 3.1 Smoothed Elementwise `? -norm Our proposed method starts with the following projection problem, b ? S|||? s.t. S  0. S = argmin |||S (3.2) S From the triangle inequality and the fact that ?? is a feasible solution to (3.2), we have b+S b ? S|||? ? |||S b ? S|||? + |||S b ? ?? |||? ? 2|||S b ? ?? |||? . |||?? ? S (3.3) Then by combining Lemma 2.2 and (3.3), we can show that S concentrates to ?? with a rate similar to Lemma 2.2. However, (3.2) is computationally expensive due to the non-smooth elementwise `? -norm. To overcome this challenge, we apply the dual smoothing approach in Nesterov (2005) to efficiently solve (3.2) with a controllable loss in accuracy. More specifically, for any matrix A ? Rd?d , we exploit the Fenchel?s dual representation of the elementwise `? -norm to obtain its smooth surrogate as follows, ? |||A|||?? = max U, A ? |||U|||2F , (3.4) 2 |||U|||1 ?1 where ? > 0 is the smoothing parameter, and the second term is the proximity function of U. We call |||A|||?? smoothed elementwise `? -norm. A closed form solution to (3.4) is characterized in the following lemma. e with Lemma 3.1. Equation (3.4) has a closed form solution, U   Ajk e Ujk = sign (Ajk ) ? max ? ?, 0 , (3.5) ? e 1 ? 1. where ? is the minimum non-negative constant such that |||U||| By utilizing a suitable pivotal quantity, we can efficiently obtain ? with the expected computational complexity O(d2 ). More details of the algorithm can be found in Zhao et al. (2013). The smoothed b elementwise `? -norm is a smooth convex function. Let A = S?S, and we can evaluate its gradient using (3.5) as follows, b ? S|||? = ?|||S ? b ? S|||? ?(S b ? S) ?|||S ? e = ?U. ? b ? S) ?S ?(S (3.6) e is essentially a soft thresholding function, therefore it is continuous in S with the LipSince U chitz constant ??1 . In the next section, we will show that by considering the following alternative optimization problem e = argmin |||S b ? S|||? s.t. S  0, S ? (3.7) S we can also obtain a good correlation estimator without losing computational efficiency. 3.2 Fast Proximal Gradient Algorithm Equation (3.7) has a minimum eigenvalue constraint, regarding which, we exploit Nesterov (1988) and derive the following fast proximal gradient algorithm. The main idea is to utilize the gradients in previous iterations to help find the descent direction for the current iteration, and eventually achieves a faster convergence rate than the ordinary projected gradient algorithm. In this algorithm, we need two sequences of auxiliary variables M(t) and W(t) with M(0) = W(0) = S(0) , and a sequence of weights ?t = 2/(1 + t) where t = 0, 1, 2, .... Before we proceed with the proposed algorithm, we describe Lemma 3.2, which can solve the following projection problem ?+ (A) = argmin ||B ? A||2F s.t. B  0, B where A ? Rd?d is a symmetric matrix. 4 (3.8) Pd Lemma 3.2. Suppose A has the eigenvalue decomposition as A = j=1 ?j vj vjT , where ?j ?s are the eigenvalues and vj ?s are corresponding eigenvectors. Let ? ej = max{?j , 0} for j = 1, ..., d, Pd then we have ?+ (A) = j=1 ? ej vj vjT . Now we start with the t-th iteration. We first calculate the auxiliary variable M(t) as M(t) = (1 ? ?t )S(t?1) + ?t W(t?1) . We then evaluate the gradient according to (3.6), b ? M(t) |||? ?|||S ? G(t) = . ?M(t) We consider the following quadratic approximation b ? W(t?1) |||? + G(t) , W ? W(t?1) + Q(W, W(t?1) , ?) = |||S ? (3.9) (3.10) 1 ||W ? W(t) ||2F . (3.11) 2??t By simple manipulations and Lemma 3.2, the fast proximal gradient algorithm takes   ? (t) (t) (t?1) (t?1) W = argmin Q(W, W , ?) = ?+ W , (3.12) ? G ?t W0 where ? works as a step-size here. We further calculate S(t) for the t-th iteration as follow, S(t) = (1 ? ?t )S(t?1) + ?t W(t) . (3.13) b ? S||| e ? < , we need the b ? S(t) |||? ? |||S Theorem 3.3. Given the desired accuracy  such that |||S ? ? number of iterations to be at most q p  e 2 /(?) ? 1 = O t = 2||S(0) ? S|| 1/(?) . (3.14) F The detailed proof can be found in the extended draft Zhao et al. (2013) due to the space limit. Theorem 3.3 guarantees that our derived algorithm achieves the optimal rate of convergence for minimizing (3.7) over the class of all gradient-based computational algorithms. In next section, by directly analyzing the tradeoff between the computational efficiency and statistical error, we will e concentrate to ?? with a rate similar show that choosing a suitable smooth parameter ? allows S to Lemma 2.2 in high dimensions, though (3.7) is not the same as the original projection problem (3.2). 4 Statistical Properties In this section we present the statistical properties of the proposed method. Due to space limit, all the proofs of following theorems can be found in the extended draft Zhao et al. (2013). The next e under the elementwise `? norm. This result theorem establishes the concentration property of S will be useful to prove later main theorem. b for any large enough n, under the Theorem 4.1. Given the nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator S, e satisfying conditions that ? ? 4?? and ? > 0, we have the optimum to (3.7), denoted as S,   e ? ?? |||? ? 18?? ? 1 ? d2 exp(?n?2 ). P |||S (4.1) Theorem 4.1 is non-asymptotic. It implies that we can gain the computational efficiency without losing statistical rate in terms of elementwise sup-norm as long as ? is reasonably large. We now show that our proposed smooth-projected neighborhood approach recovers the true neighborhood for each node with high probability under the following irrepresentable condition (Zhao and Yu, 2006; Zou, 2006; Wainwright, 2009). Assumption 1 (Irrepresentable Condition). Recall that Ij and Jj denote the true neighborhood and non-neighborhood of node j respectively. There exist ? ? (0, 1), ?min > 0 and ? ?1 ? ? < ? such that for ?j = 1, .., d, the following conditions hold, (C.1) ||??Jj Ij (??Ij Ij )?1 ||? ? ?; (C.2) ?min (??Ij Ij ) ? ?, 5 k(??Ij Ij )?1 k? (4.2) ? ?. (4.3) The proposed projection approach can be also combined with other graph estimation method such as Zhou et al. (2009), in which the conditions above can be relaxed. Here we use this condition for an illustrative purpose to show that the proposed method has a theoretical guarantee. ? Theorem 4.2 (Graph Recovery Performance). Let ? = min |B?jk | for all (j, k)?s such that Gjk 6= 0, ? d?d ? ? ?1 ? ? ? where B ? R with B\j,j = (?\j,\j ) ?\j,j and Bj,j = 0. We assume that ? satisfies Conditions C.1 and C.2. Let sj = |Ij | < n and choose the ? such that ? ? min {? /?, 2}, then there exist positive universal constants c0 and c1 , such that ! !   2 2 ?c n? c n? 1 1 P Jbj = Jj , Ibj = Ij ? 1 ? s2j exp ? s2j exp ? 2 4s2j sj ! c1 n?2 ? (d ? sj )sj exp ? 2 ? d exp(?c1 n?2 ), (4.4) sj q n o 1 ?(1??) ?(1??) ? ? where ? satisfies that c0 logn d ? ? ? min 1, 2? , 26? , 26(?+1) , 14? . 2 , 14? Theorem 4.2 is also non-asymptotic. It guarantees that for each individual node, we can correctly recover its neighborhood with high probability. Consequently, the following corollary can be implied so that we can asymptotically recover the underlying graph structure under given conditions. Corollary 4.3. Let s = max1?j?d sj , then under the same conditions as in Theorem 4.2, we have P(Gb = G) ? 1 if the following conditions hold: (C.3) ?, ? and ? are constants, which do not scale with the triplet (n, d, s); (C.4) The triplet (n, d, s) scales as s2 (log d + log s)/n ? 0 and s2 log d/(? 2 n) ? 0; (C.5) ? scales with (n, d, s) as ?/? ? 0 and s2 log d/(?2 n) ? 0. 5 Numerical Simulations Liu et al. (2012) recommend to use the Kendall?s tau for nonparanormal graph estimation because of its superior robustness property compared to the Spearman?s rho. In this section, we use the Kendall?s tau in our smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit method. For synthetic data, we use the following four different graphs with 200 nodes (d = 200): (1) Erd?os-R?enyi graph; (ii) Cluster graph; (iii) Chain graph; (4) Scale-free graph. We simulate data from the Gaussian distributions that Markov to the above graphs. We adopt the power function g(t) = sign(t)|t|4 to convert the Gaussian data to the nonparanormal data. More details about the data simulation can be found in Zhao et al. (2013). We use the ROC curve to evaluate the graph estimation performance. Since d > n, the full solution paths cannot be obtained, therefore we restrict the range of false positive edge discovery rates to be from 0 to 0.3 for computational convenience. 5.1 Our proposed method vs. Nonparanormal SKEPTIC Estimator We first evaluate the proposed smoothed elementwise `? -norm projection algorithm. For this, we sampled 100 data points from a 200-dimensional standard normal distribution N (0, I200 ). We study the empirical performance of the proposed fast proximal gradient algorithm using different smoothing parameters (? = 1, 0.5, 0.25, 0.1). The optimization and statistical error curves for different smoothing parameters (averaged over 50 replications) are presented in Figure 1. Figure 1(a) shows b ? S(t) |||? v.s. the number of iterations. Compared with smaller the original objective value |||S ??s, we see that choosing ? = 1 reduces the computational burden but increases the approximation error w.r.t the problem in (3.2). However, Figure 1(b) shows that, in terms of the statistical error |||?? ? S(t) |||? , ? = 1 performs similarly to the other smaller ??s. Therefore, we show that significant computational efficiency can be gained with little loss of statistical error. We further compare the graph recovery performance of our proposed method with the naive indefinite nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator as in Liu et al. (2012). The averaged ROC curves over 100 replications are presented in Figure 2. We see that directly plugging the indefinite nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator into the neighborhood pursuit results in the worst performance. The ROC performance drops dramatically due to the non-convexity of the objective function. While 6 0.442 0.440 Statistical Error 0.444 ?=1 ? = 0.5 ? = 0.25 ? = 0.1 0.436 0.438 0.035 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 Objective Values 0.030 ?=1 ? = 0.5 ? = 0.25 ? = 0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 # of Iterations 30 40 50 # of Iterations (b) |||?? ? S(t) |||? b ? S(t) |||? (a) |||S Figure 1: The empirical performance using different smoothing parameters. ? = 1 has a similar performance to the smaller ??s in terms of the estimation error. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 False Positive Rate 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 True Positive Rate 0.3 0.2 SKEPTIC Projection 0.3 0.4 SKEPTIC Projection 0.4 0.0 0.1 False Positive Rate (a) Erd?os-R?enyi SKEPTIC Projection 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 True Positive Rate 0.7 0.6 0.5 True Positive Rate 0.8 0.7 0.6 True Positive Rate 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 our smoothed-projected neighborhood pursuit method significantly outperforms the naive indefinite nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 False Positive Rate (b) Cluster 0.2 0.3 0.4 False Positive Rate (c) Chain (d) Scale-free Figure 2: The averaged ROC curves of the neighborhood pursuit when combined with different correlation estimators. ?SKEPTIC? represents the indefinite nonparanormal SKEPTIC estimator, and ?Projection? represents our proposed projection approach. 5.2 Our Proposed Method vs. Naive Neighborhood Pursuit 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 False Positive Rate (a) Erd?os-R?enyi 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 False Positive Rate 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 (c) Chain 0.25 0.30 NNP SNP 0.0 NNP SNP 0.00 False Positive Rate (b) Cluster 0.4 True Positive Rate 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.00 0.0 NNP SNP 0.0 0.0 NNP SNP 0.00 0.4 True Positive Rate 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 True Positive Rate 0.6 0.4 0.2 True Positive Rate 0.8 1.0 In this subsection, we conduct similar numerical studies as in Liu et al. (2012) to compare our proposed method with the naive neighborhood pursuit method. The naive neighborhood pursuit directly exploits the Pearson correlation estimator under the neighborhood pursuit framework. Choosing n = 100 and d = 200, we use the same experimental setup as in the previous subsection. The averaged ROC curves over 100 replications are presented in Figure 3. As can be seen, our proposed projection method outperforms the naive neighborhood pursuit throughout all four different graphs. 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 False Positive Rate (d) Scale-free Figure 3: The averaged ROC curves of the neighborhood pursuit when combined with different correlation estimators. ?SNP? represents our proposed estimator and ?NNP? represents the Pearson estimator. The SNP uniformly outperforms the NNP for all four graphs. 6 Real Data Analysis In this section we present a real data experiment to compare the nonparanormal graphical model to Gaussian graphical model. For model selection, we use the stability graph procedure (Meinshausen 7 and B?uhlmann, 2010; Liu et al., 2010), which has the following steps: (1) Calculate the solution path using all the samples, and choose the regularization parameter at the sparsity level 4%; (2) Randomly choose 10% of all the samples without replacement using the regularization parameter chosen in (1); (3) Repeat the step (2) 500 times and retain the edges that appear with frequencies no less than 95%. The topic graph is first used in Blei and Lafferty (2007) to illustrate the idea of correlated topic modeling. The correlated topic model, is a hierarchical Bayesian model for abstracting K ?topics? that occur in a collection of documents (corpus). By applying the variational EM-algorithm, we can estimate the topic proportion for each document and represent it in a K-dimensional simplex (mixedmembership). Blei and Lafferty (2007) assume that the topic proportion approximately follows a normal distribution after the logarithmic-transformation. Here we are interested in visualizing the relationship among the topics using an undirected graph: the nodes represent individual topics, and edges connecting different nodes represent highly related topics. The corpus used in Blei and Lafferty (2007) contains 16,351 documents with 19,088 unique terms. Similar to Blei and Lafferty (2007), we choose K = 100 and fit a topic model to the articles published in Science from 1990 to 1999. Evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we find many topic data highly violate the normality assumption (More details can be found in Zhao et al. (2013)). This motivates our choice of the smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit approach. The estimated topic graphs are provided in Figure 4. The smooth-projected neighborhood pursuit generates 6 mid-size modules and 6 small modules, while the naive neighborhood pursuit generated 1 large module, 2 mid-size modules and 6 small modules. The nonparanormal approach discovers more refined structures and improves the interpretability of the obtained graph. For example: (1) Topics closely related to climate change in Antarctica are clustered in the same module such as ?ice-68?, ?ozone-23? and ?carbon-64?; (2) Topics closely related to environmental ecology are clustered in the same module such as ?monkey-21?, ?science-4?, ?environmental-67?, ?species-86?, etc.; (3) Topics closely related to modern physics are clustered in the same module such as ?quantum-29?, ?magnetic-55?, ?pressure-92?, ?solar-62?, etc.. In contrast, the naive neighborhood pursuit mixes all these different topics in a large module. (a) Our Proposed Method (b) Naive Neighborhood Pursuit Figure 4: Two topic graphs illustrating the difference of the estimated topic graphs. The smoothprojected neighborhood pursuit (subfigure (a)) generates 6 mid-size modules and 6 small modules while the naive neighborhood pursuit (subfigure (b)) generates 1 large module, 2 mid-size modules and 6 small modules. 7 Conclusion and Acknowledgement In this paper, we study how to estimate the nonparanormal graph using the neighborhood pursuit in conjunction with the possible indefinite nonparanormal skeptic estimator. Using our proposed smoothed projection approach, the resulting estimator can be used as a positive semi-definite refinement of the nonparanormal skeptic estimator. Our estimator has better graph estimation performance with theoretical guarantee. Our results suggest that it is possible to gain estimation robustness and modeling flexibility without losing two important computational structures: convexity and smoothness. The topic modeling experiment demonstrates that our proposed method may lead to more refined scientific discovery. Han Liu and Tuo Zhao are supported by NSF award IIS-11167308, and Kathryn Roeder is supported by National Institute of Mental Health grant MH057881. 8 References BANERJEE , O., G HAOUI , L. E. and D ?A SPREMONT, A. (2008). Model selection through sparse maximum likelihood estimation. Journal of Machine Learning Research 9 485?516. B LEI , D. and L AFFERTY, J. (2007). A correlated topic model of science. Annals of Applied Statistics 1 17?35. C HEN , X., L IN , Q., K IM , S., C ARBONELL , J. and X ING , E. (2012). A smoothing proximal gradient method for general structured sparse regression. Annals of Applied Statistics To appear. D EMPSTER , A. (1972). Covariance selection. Biometrics 28 157?175. F RIEDMAN , J., T. H ASTIE , H. H. and T IBSHIRANI , R. (2007). Pathwise coordinate optimization. Annals of Applied Statistics 1 302?332. H ONORIO , J., O RTIZ , L., S AMARAS , D., PARAGIOS , N., and G OLDSTEIN , R. (2009). Sparse and locally constant gaussian graphical models. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 745?753. K LAASSEN , C. and W ELLNER , J. (1997). Efficient estimation in the bivariate normal copula model: Normal margins are least-favorable. Bernoulli 3 55?77. L AURITZEN , S. (1996). Graphical models, vol. 17. Oxford University Press, USA. L IU , H., H AN , F., Y UAN , M., L AFFERTY, J. and WASSERMAN , L. (2012). High dimensional semiparametric gaussian copula graphical models. Annals of Statistics To appear. L IU , H., L AFFERTY, J. and WASSERMAN , L. (2009). The nonparanormal: Semiparametric estimation of high dimensional undirected graphs. Journal of Machine Learning Research 10 2295?2328. L IU , H., ROEDER , K. and WASSERMAN , L. (2010). Stability approach to regularization selection for high dimensional graphical models. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems . ? M EINSHAUSEN , N. and B UHLMANN , P. (2006). High dimensional graphs and variable selection with the lasso. Annals of Statistics 34 1436?1462. ? M EINSHAUSEN , N. and B UHLMANN , P. (2010). Stability selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 72 417?473. N ESTEROV, Y. (1988). On an approach to the construction of optimal methods of smooth convex functions. ? Ekonom. i. Mat. Metody 24 509?517. N ESTEROV, Y. (2005). Smooth minimization of non-smooth functions. Mathematical Programming 103 127? 152. R AVIKUMAR , P., L AFFERTY, J., L IU , H. and WASSERMAN , L. (2009). Sparse additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 71 1009?1030. R AVIKUMAR , P., WAINWRIGHT, M., R ASKUTTI , G. and Y U , B. (2011). High-dimensional covariance estimation by minimizing `1 -penalized log-determinant divergence. Electronic Journal of Statistics 5 935?980. T SUKAHARA , H. (2005). Semiparametric estimation in copula models. Canadian Journal of Statistics 33 357?375. WAINWRIGHT, M. (2009). Sharp thresholds for highdimensional and noisy sparsity recovery using `1 constrained quadratic programming. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 55 2183?2201. W ILLE , A., Z IMMERMANN , P., V RANOVA , E., F RHOLZ , A., L AULE , O., B LEULER , S., H ENNIG , L., ? P RELIC , A., VON ROHR , P., T HIELE , L., Z ITZLER , E., G RUISSEM , W. and B UHLMANN , P. (2004). Sparse graphical gaussian modeling of the isoprenoid gene network in arabidopsis thaliana. Genome Biology 5 R92. Y UAN , M. and L IN , Y. (2007). Model selection and estimation in the gaussian graphical model. Biometrika 94 19?35. Z HAO , P. and Y U , B. (2006). On model selection consistency of lasso. Journal of Machine Learning Research 7 2541?2563. Z HAO , T., L IU , H., ROEDER , K., L AFFERTY, J. and WASSERMAN , L. (2012). The huge package for highdimensional undirected graph estimation in r. Journal of Machine Learning Research To appear. Z HAO , T., ROEDER , K. and L IU , H. (2013). A smoothing projection approach for high dimensional nonparanormal graph estimation. Tech. rep., Johns Hopkins University. ? Z HOU , S., VAN D E G EER , S. and B UHLMANN , P. (2009). Adaptive lasso for high dimensional regression and gaussian graphical modeling. Tech. rep., ETH Zurich. Z OU , H. (2006). The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties. Journal of the American Statistical Association 101 1418?1429. 9
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Label Ranking with Partial Abstention based on Thresholded Probabilistic Models ? Eyke Hullermeier Mathematics and Computer Science Philipps-Universit?at Marburg Marburg, Germany [email protected] Weiwei Cheng Mathematics and Computer Science Philipps-Universit?at Marburg Marburg, Germany [email protected] Willem Waegeman Mathematical Modeling, Statistics and Bioinformatics, Ghent University Ghent, Belgium [email protected] Volkmar Welker Mathematics and Computer Science Philipps-Universit?at Marburg Marburg, Germany [email protected] Abstract Several machine learning methods allow for abstaining from uncertain predictions. While being common for settings like conventional classification, abstention has been studied much less in learning to rank. We address abstention for the label ranking setting, allowing the learner to declare certain pairs of labels as being incomparable and, thus, to predict partial instead of total orders. In our method, such predictions are produced via thresholding the probabilities of pairwise preferences between labels, as induced by a predicted probability distribution on the set of all rankings. We formally analyze this approach for the Mallows and the Plackett-Luce model, showing that it produces proper partial orders as predictions and characterizing the expressiveness of the induced class of partial orders. These theoretical results are complemented by experiments demonstrating the practical usefulness of the approach. 1 Introduction In machine learning, the notion of ?abstention? commonly refers to the possibility of refusing a prediction in cases of uncertainty. In classification with a reject option, for example, a classifier may abstain from a class prediction if making no decision is considered less harmful than making an unreliable and hence potentially false decision [7, 1]. The same idea could be used in the context of ranking, too, where a reject option appears to be even more interesting than in classification. While a conventional classifier has only two choices, namely to predict a class or to abstain, a ranker can abstain to some degree: The order relation predicted can be more or less complete, ranging from a total order to the empty relation in which all alternatives are declared incomparable. Our focus is on so-called label ranking problems [16, 10], to be introduced more formally in Section 2 below. Label ranking has a strong relationship with the standard setting of multi-class classification, but each instance is now associated with a complete ranking of all labels instead of a single label. Typical examples, which also highlight the need for abstention, include the ranking of candidates for a given job and the ranking of products for a given customer. In such applications, it is desirable to avoid the expression of unreliable or unwarranted preferences. Thus, if a ranker cannot reliably decide whether a first label should precede a second one or the other way around, it should abstain from this decision and instead declare these alternatives as being incomparable. Abstaining in a consistent way, the relation thus produced should form a partial order [6]. 1 In Section 4, we propose and analyze a new approach for abstention in label ranking that builds on existing work on partial orders in areas like decision theory, probability theory and discrete mathematics. We predict partial orders by thresholding parameterized probability distributions on rankings, using the Plackett-Luce and the Mallows model. Roughly speaking, this approach is able to avoid certain inconsistencies of a previous approach to label ranking with abstention [6], to be discussed in Section 3. By making stronger model assumptions, our approach simplifies the construction of consistent partial order relations. In fact, it obeys a number of appealing theoretical properties. Apart from assuring proper partial orders as predictions, it allows for an exact characterization of the expressivity of a class of thresholded probability distributions in terms of the number of partial orders that can be produced. The proposal and formal analysis of this approach constitute our main contributions. Last but not least, as will be shown in Section 5, the theoretical advantages of our approach in comparison with [6] are also reflected in practical improvements. 2 Label Ranking with Abstention In the setting of label ranking, each instance x from an instance space X is associated with a total order of a fixed set of class labels Y = {y1 , . . . , yM }, that is, a complete, transitive, and antisymmetric relation  on Y, where yi  yj indicates that yi precedes yj in the order. Since a ranking can be considered as a special type of preference relation, we shall also say that yi  yj indicates a preference for yi over yj (given the instance x). Formally, a total order  can be identified with a permutation ? of the set [M ] = {1, . . . , M }, such that ?(i) is the position of yi in the order. We denote the class of permutations of [M ] (the symmetric group of order M ) by ?. Moreover, we identify  with the mapping (relation) R : Y 2 ?? {0, 1} such that R(i, j) = 1 if yi  yj and R(i, j) = 0 otherwise. The goal in label ranking is to learn a ?label ranker? in the form of an X ?? ? mapping. As training data, a label ranker uses a set of instances xn (n ? [N ]), together with preference information in the form of pairwise comparisons yi  yj of some (but not necessarily all) labels in Y, suggesting that instance xn prefers label yi to yj . The prediction accuracy of a label ranker is assessed by comparing the true ranking ? with the prediction ? ? , using a distance measure D on rankings. Among the most commonly used measures is the Kendall distance, which is defined by the number of inversions, that is, pairs {i, j} ? [M ] such that sign(?(i) ? ?(j)) 6= sign(? ? (i) ? ? ? (j)). Besides, the sum of squared rank distances, PM 2 ? (i)) , is often used as an alternative distance; it is closely connected to Spearman?s i=1 (?(i) ? ? rank correlation (Spearman?s rho), which is an affine transformation of this number to the interval [?1, +1]. Motivated by the idea of a reject option in classification, Cheng et al. [6] introduced a variant of the above setting in which the label ranker is allowed to partially abstain from a prediction. More specifically, it is allowed to make predictions in the form of a partial order Q instead of a total order R: If Q(i, j) = Q(j, i) = 0, the ranker abstains on the label pair (yi , yj ) and instead declares these labels as being incomparable. Abstaining in a consistent way, Q should still be antisymmetric and transitive, hence a partial order relation. Note that a prediction Q can be associated with a confidence set, i.e., a subset of ? supposed  to cover the true ranking ?, namely the set of all linear extensions of this partial order: C(Q) = ? ? ? | Q(i, j) = 1 ? (?(i) < ?(j)) for all i, j ? [M ] . 3 Previous Work Despite a considerable amount of work on ranking in general and learning to rank in particular, the literature on partial rankings is relatively sparse. Worth mentioning is work on a specific type of partial orders, namely linear orders of unsorted or tied subsets (partitions, bucket orders) [13, 17]. However, apart from the restriction to this type of order relation, the problems addressed in these works are quite different from our goals. The authors in [17] specifically address computational aspects that arise when working with distributions on partially ranked data, while [13] seeks to discover an underlying bucket order from pairwise precedence information between the items. 2 More concretely, in the context of the label ranking problem, the aforementioned work [6] is the only one so far that addresses the more general problem of learning to predict partial orders. This method consists of two main steps and can be considered as a pairwise approach in the sense that, as a point of departure for a prediction, a valued preference relation P : Y 2 ?? [0, 1] is produced, where P (i, j) is interpreted as a measure of support of the pairwise preference yi  yj . Support is commonly interpreted in terms of probability, hence P is assumed to be reciprocal: P (i, j) = 1 ? P (j, i) for all i, j ? [M ]. Then, in a second step, a partial order Q is derived from P via thresholding:  1, if P (i, j) > q Q(i, j) = JP (i, j) > qK = , 0, otherwise (1) where 1/2 ? q < 1 is a threshold. Thus, the idea is to predict only those pairwise preferences that are sufficiently likely, while abstaining on pairs (i, j) for which P (i, j) ? 1/2. The first step of deriving the relation P is realized by means of an ensemble learning technique: Training an ensemble of standard label rankers, each of which provides a prediction in the form of a total order, P (i, j) is defined by the fraction of ensemble members voting for yi  yj . Other possibilities are of course conceivable, and indeed, the only important point to notice here is that the preference degrees P (i, j) are essentially independent of each other. Or, stated differently, they do not guarantee any specific properties of the relation P except being reciprocal. In particular, P does not necessarily obey any type of transitivity property. For the relation Q derived from P via thresholding, this has two important consequences: First, if the threshold q is not large enough, then Q may have cycles. Thus, not all thresholds in [1/2, 1) are actually feasible. In particular, if q = 1/2 cannot be chosen, this also implies that the method may not be able to predict a total order as a special case. Second, even if Q does not have cycles, it is not guaranteed to be transitive. To overcome these problems, the authors devise an algorithm (of complexity O(|Y|3 )) that finds the smallest feasible threshold qmin , namely the threshold that guarantees Q(i, j) = JP (i, j) > qK to be cycle-free for each threshold q ? [qmin , 1). Then, since Q may still be non-transitive, it is ?repaired? in a second step by replacing it with its transitive closure [23]. 4 Predicting Partial Orders based on Probabilistic Models In order to tackle the problems of the approach in [6], our idea is to restrict the relation P in (1) so as to exclude the possibility of cycles and intransitivity from the very beginning, thereby avoiding the need for a post-reparation of a prediction. To this end, we take advantage of methods for label ranking that produce (parameterized) probability distributions over ? as predictions. Our main theoretical result is to show that thresholding pairwise preferences induced by such distributions, apart from being semantically meaningful due to their clear probabilistic interpretation, yields preference relations with the desired properties, that is, partial order relations Q. 4.1 Probabilistic Models Different types of probability models for rank data have been studied in the statistical literature [11, 20], including the Mallows model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) model as the most popular representatives of the class of distance-based and stagewise models, respectively. Both models have recently attracted attention in machine learning [14, 15, 22, 21, 18] and, in particular, have been used in the context of label ranking. A label ranking method that produces predictions expressed in terms of the Mallows model is proposed in [5]. The standard Mallows model P(? | ?, ?0 ) = exp(??D(?, ?0 )) ?(?) (2) is determined by two parameters: The ranking ?0 ? ? is the location parameter (mode, center ranking) and ? ? 0 is a spread parameter. Moreover, D is a distance measure on rankings, and ? = ?(?) is a normalization factor that depends on the spread (but, provided the right-invariance 3 of D, not on ?0 ). Obviously, the Mallows model assigns the maximum probability to the center ranking ?0 . The larger the distance D(?, ?0 ), the smaller the probability of ? becomes. The spread parameter ? determines how quickly the probability decreases, i.e., how peaked the distribution is around ?0 . For ? = 0, the uniform distribution is obtained, while for ? ? ?, the distribution converges to the one-point distribution that assigns probability 1 to ?0 and 0 to all other rankings. Alternatively, the Plackett-Luce (PL) model was used in [4]. This model is specified by a parameter vector v = (v1 , v2 , . . . , vM ) ? RM +: P(? | v) = M Y v??1 (i) v ?1 + v??1 (i+1) + . . . + v??1 (M ) i=1 ? (i) (3) It is a generalization of the well-known Bradley-Terry model for the pairwise comparison of altera natives, which specifies the probability that ?a wins against b? in terms of P(a  b) = vav+v . b Obviously, the larger va in comparison to vb , the higher the probability that a is chosen. Likewise, the larger the parameter vi in (3) in comparison to the parameters vj , j 6= i, the higher the probability that yi appears on a top rank. 4.2 Thresholded Relations are Partial Orders Given a probability distribution P on the set of rankings ?, the probability of a pairwise preference yi  yj (and hence the corresponding entry in the preference relation P ) is obtained through marginalization: X P (i, j) = P(yi  yj ) = P(?) , (4) ??E(i,j) where E(i, j) denotes the set of linear extensions of the incomplete ranking yi  yj , i.e., the set of all rankings ? ? ? with ?(i) < ?(j). We start by stating a necessary and sufficient condition on P (i, j) for the threshold relation (1) to result in a (strict) partial order, i.e., an antisymmetric, irreflexive and transitive relation. Lemma 1. Let P be a reciprocal relation and let Q be given by (1). Then Q defines a strict partial order relation for all q ? [1/2, 1) if and only if P satisfies partial stochastic transitivity, i.e., P (i, j) > 1/2 and P (j, k) > 1/2 implies P (i, k) ? min(P (i, j), P (j, k)) for each triple (i, j, k) ? [M ]3 . This lemma was first proven by Fishburn [12], together with a number of other characterizations of subclasses of strict partial orders by means of transitivity properties on P (i, j). For example, replacing partial stochastic transitivity by interval stochastic transitivity (now a condition on quadruples instead of triplets) leads to a characterization of interval orders, a subclass of strict partial orders; a partial order Q on [M ]2 is called an interval order if each i ? [M ] can be associated with an interval (li , ui ) ? R such that Q(i, j) = 1 ? ui ? lj . Our main theoretical results below state that thresholding (4) yields a strict partial order relation Q, both for the PL and the Mallows model. Thus, we can guarantee that a strict partial order relation can be predicted by simple thresholding, and without the need for any further reparation. Moreover, the whole spectrum of threshold parameters q ? [1/2, 1) can be used. Theorem 1. Let P in (4) be the PL model (3). Moreover, let Q be given by the threshold relation (1). Then Q defines a strict partial order relation for all q ? [1/2, 1). Theorem 2. Let P in (4) be the Mallows model (2), with a distance D having the so-called transposition property. Moreover, let Q be given by the threshold relation (1). Then Q defines a strict partial order relation for all q ? [1/2, 1). Theorem 1 directly follows from the strong stochastic transitivity of the PL model [19]. The proof of Theorem 2 is slightly more complicated and given below. Moreover, the result for Mallows is less general in the sense that D must obey the transposition property. Actually, however, this property is not very restrictive and indeed satisfied by most of the commonly used distance measures, including the Kendall distance (see, e.g., [9]). In the following, we always assume that the distance D in the Mallows model (2) satisfies this property. 4 Definition 1. A distance D on ? is said to have the transposition property, if the following holds: Let ? and ? 0 be rankings and let (i, j) be an inversion (i.e., i < j and (?(i) ? ?(j))(? 0 (i) ? ? 0 (j)) < 0). Let ? 00 ? ? be constructed from ? 0 by swapping yi and yj , that is, ? 00 (i) = ? 0 (j), ? 00 (j) = ? 0 (i) and ? 00 (m) = ? 0 (m) for all m ? [M ] \ {i, j}. Then, D(?, ? 00 ) ? D(?, ? 0 ). Lemma 2. If yi precedes yj in the center ranking ?0 in (2), then P(yi  yj ) ? 1/2. Moreover, if P(yi  yj ) > q ? 1/2, then yi precedes yj in the center ranking ?0 . Proof. For every ranking ? ? ?, let b(?) = ? if yi precedes yj in ?; otherwise, b(?) is defined by swapping yi and yj in ?. Obviously, b(?) defines a bijection between E(i, j) and E(j, i). Moreover, since D has the transposition property, D(b(?), ?0 ) ? D(?, ?0 ) for all ? ? ?. Therefore, according to the Mallows model, P(b(?)) ? P(?), and hence X X X P(yi  yj ) = P(?) ? P(b?1 (?)) = P(?) = P(yj  yi ) ??E(i,j) ??E(i,j) ??E(j,i) Since, moreover, P(yi  yj ) = 1 ? P(yj  yi ), it follows that P(yi  yj ) ? 1/2. The second part immediately follows from the first one by way of contradiction: If yj would precede yi , then P(yj  yi ) ? 1/2, and therefore P(yi  yj ) = 1 ? P(yj  yi ) ? 1/2 ? q. Lemma 3. If yi precedes yj and yj precedes yk in the center ranking ?0 in (2), then P(yi  yk ) ? max (P(yi  yj ), P(yj  yk )). Proof. We show that P(yi  yk ) ? P(yi  yj ). The second inequality P(yi  yk ) ? P(yj  yk ) is shown analogously. Let E(i, j, k) denote the set of linear extensions of yi  yj  yk , i.e., the set of rankings ? ? ? in which yi precedes yj and yj precedes yk . Now, for every ? ? E(k, j, i), define b(?) by first swapping yk and yj and then yk and yi in ?. Obviously, b(?) defines a bijection between E(k, j, i) and E(j, i, k). Moreover, due to the transposition property, D(b(?), ?0 ) ? D(?, ?0 ), and therefore P(b(?)) ? P(?) under the Mallows model. Consequently, since E(i, j) = E(i, j, k) ? E(i, k, j) ? E(k, i, j) and P E(i, k) = E(i, k, j) ? E(i, P j, k) ? E(j, i, k), it follows that P(yi  yk ) ? P(yi  yj ) = P(?) = ??E(i,k)\E(i,j) ??E(j,i,k) P(?) ? P P P(?) = P(b(?)) ? P(?) ? 0. ??E(k,j,i) ??E(k,j,i) Lemmas 2 and 3 immediately imply the following lemma. Lemma 4. The relation P derived via P (i, j) = P(yi  yj ) from the Mallows model satisfies the following property (closely related to strong stochastic transitivity): If (P (i, j) > q and P (j, k) > q, then P (i, k) ? max(P (i, j), P (j, k)), for all q ? 1/2 and all i, j, k ? [M ]. Proof of Theorem 2. Since P(yi  yj ) = 1 ? P(yj  yi ), it obviously follows that Q(yi , yj ) = 1 implies Q(yj , yi ) = 0. Moreover, Lemma 4 implies that Q is transitive. Consequently, Q defines a proper partial order relation. The above statements guarantee that a strict partial order relation can be predicted by simple thresholding, and without the need for any further reparation. Moreover, the whole spectrum of threshold parameters q ? [1/2, 1) can be used. As an aside, we mention that strict partial orders can also be produced by thresholding other probabilistic preference learning models. All pairwise preference models based on utility scores satisfy strong stochastic transitivity. This includes traditional statistical models such as the Thurstone Case 5 model [25] and the Bradley-Terry model [3], as well as modern learning models such as [8, 2]. These models are usually not applied in label ranking settings, however. 4.3 Expressivity of the Model Classes So far, we have shown that predictions produced by thresholding probability distributions on rankings are proper partial orders. Roughly speaking, this is accomplished by restricting P in (1) to specific valued preference relations (namely marginals (4) of the Mallows or the PL model), in contrast to the approach of [6], where P can be any (reciprocal) relation. From a learning point of view, one may wonder to what extent this restriction limits the expressivity of the underlying model class. This expressivity is naturally defined in terms of the number of different partial orders (up to 5 isomorphism) that can be represented in the form of a threshold relation (1). Interestingly, we can show that, in this sense, the approach based on PL is much more expressive than the one based on the Mallows model. Theorem 3. Let QM denote the set of different partial orders (up to isomorphism) that can be represented as a threshold relation Q defined by (1), where P is derived according to (4) from the Mallows model (2) with D the Kendall distance. Then |QM | = M . Proof. By the right invariance of D, different choices of ?0 lead to the same set of isomorphism classes QM . Hence we may assume that ?0 is the identity. By Theorem 6.3 in [20] the (M ? M )matrix with entries P (i, j) is a Toeplitz matrix, i.e., P (i, j) = P (i + 1, j + 1) for all i, j ? [M ? 1], with entries strictly increasing along rows, i.e., P (i, j) < P (i, j + 1) for 1 ? i < j < M . Thus, by Theorem 2, thresholding leads to M different partial orders. More specifically, the partial orders in QM have a very simple structure that is purely rankdependent: The first structure is the total order ? = ?0 . The second structure is obtained by removing all preferences between all direct neighbors, i.e., labels yi and yj with adjacent ranks (|?(i) ? ?(j)| = 1). The third structure is obtained from the second one by removing all preferences between 2-neighbors, i.e., labels yi and yj with (|?(i) ? ?(j)| = 2), and so forth. The cardinality of QM increases for distance measures D other than Kendall (like Spearman?s rho or footrule), mainly since in general the matrix with entries P (i, j) is no longer Toeplitz. However, for some measures, including the two just mentioned, the matrix will still be symmetric with respect to the antidiagonal, i.e., P (i, j) = P (M + 1 ? i, M + 1 ? j) for j > i) and have entries increasing along rows. While the exact counting of QM appears to be very difficult in such cases, an argument similar to the one used in the proof of the next result  shows that |QM | is bounded by the number of M symmetric Dyck paths and hence |QM | ? b M c (see Ch. 7 [24]). It is a simple consequence of 2 Theorem 4 below, showing that exponentially more orders can be produced based on the PL model. Lemma 5. For fixed q ? (1/2, 1) and a set A of subsets of [M ], the following are equivalent: (i) The set A is the set of maximal antichains of a partial order induced by (4) on [M ] for some v1 > ? ? ? > vM > 0. (ii) The set A is a set of mutually incomparable intervals that cover [M ]. Proof. The fact that (i) implies (ii) is a simple calculation. Now assume (ii). For any interval c {a, a + 1, . . . , b} ? A we must have vcv+v ? q for any c, d ? {a, a + 1, . . . , b} for which c < d. d From va ? vc > vd ? vb it follows that 1 vc va 1 = . vb ? vd = va + vb 1 + va 1 + vc vc + vd a Thus, it suffices to show that there are real numbers v1 > ? ? ? > vn > 0 such that vav+v ? q for any b vc {a, a + 1, . . . , b} ? A and vc +vd > q for any c < d which are not contained in an antichain from A. We proceed by induction on M . The induction base M = 1 is trivial. Assume M ? 2. Since all elements of A are intervals and any two intervals are mutually incomparable, it follows that M is contained in exactly one set from A?possibly the singleton {M }. Let A0 be the set A without the unique interval {a, a + 1, . . . , M } containing M . Then A0 is a set of intervals that cover a proper subset [M 0 ] of [M ] and fulfill the assumptions of (ii) for [M 0 ]. Hence by induction there is a choice of real numbers v1 > ? ? ? > vM 0 > 0 such that the set of maximal antichains of the order on [M 0 ] induced by (4) is exactly A0 . We consider two cases: (i) a = M 0 + 1. Then, by the considerations above, we need to choose 0 va numbers vM 0 > va > va+1 > ? ? ? > vM > 0 such that va +v ? q and v v0M+v > q. The a M latter implies d vd +vc = 1 1+ vvc d ? vM 0 vM 0 +va M > q for d ? M 0 > a = M 0 + 1 ? d ? M . But those are easily checked to exist. (ii) a ? M 0 . Since M 0 is contained in at least one set from A0 va?1 va and since this set is not contained in {a, a + 1, . . . , M }, it follows that q ? va?1 +vM 0 > va +vM 0 . In particular (1 ? q)va < qvM 0 . Now choose vM 0 +1 > vM 0 +2 > ? ? ? > vM > 0 such that qvM 0 > qvM 0 +1 > qvM > va (1 ? q). Note that here q > 1/2 is essential. Then one checks that all desired inequalities are fulfilled. 6 Theorem 4. Let QP L denote the set of different partial orders (up to isomorphism) that can be represented as a threshold relation Q defined by (1), where P is derived according to (4) from the PL model (3). For any given threshold q ? [1/2, 1), the cardinality of this set is given by the M th Catalan number:   1 2M |QP L | = M +1 M Sketch of Proof. Without loss of generality, we can assume the parameters of the PL model to satisfy v1 > ? ? ? > vM > 0 . (5) Consider the (M ?M )-matrix with entries P (i, j). By (5), the main diagonal of this matrix is strictly increasing along rows and columns. From the set {(i, j) | 0 ? i ? M + 1, 0 ? i ? 1 ? j ? M }, we remove those (i, j), 1 ? i < j ? M , for which P (i, j) is above the given threshold. As a picture in the plane, this yields a shape whose upper right boundary can be identified with a Dyck path?a path on integer points consisting of 2M moves (1, 0), (0, 1) from position (1, 0) to (M + 1, M ) and staying weakly above the (i + 1, i)-diagonal. It is immediate that each path uniquely determines its partial order. Moreover, it is well-known that these Dyck paths are counted by the M th Catalan number. In order to verify that any Dyck path is induced by a suitable choice of parameters, one establishes a bijection between Dyck paths from (1, 0) to (M +1, M ) and maximal sets of mutually incomparable intervals (in the natural order) in [M ]. To this end, consider for a Dyck path a peak at position (i, j), i.e., a point on the path where a (1, 0) move is followed by a (0, 1) move. Then we must have j ? i, and we identify this peak with the interval {i, i + 1, . . . , j}. It is a simple yet tedious task to check that assigning to a Dyck path the set of intervals associated to its peaks is indeed a bijection to the set of maximal sets of mutually incomparable intervals in [M ]. Again, it is easy to verify that the set of intervals associated to a Dyck path is the set of maximal antichains of the partial order determined by the Dyck path. Now, the assertion follows from Lemma 5. Again, using Lemma 5, one checks that (5) implies that partial orders induced by (4) in the PL model have a unique labeling up to poset automorphism. Hence our count is a count of isomorphism classes. We note that, from the above proof, it follows that the partial orders in QP L are the so called semiorders. We refer the reader to Ch. 8 ?2 [26] for more details. Indeed, the first part of the proof of Theorem 4 resembles the proof of Ch. 8 (2.11) [26]. Moreover, we remark that QM is not only smaller in size than QP L , but the former is indeed strictly included in the latter: QM ? QP L . This can easily be seen by defining the weights vi of the PL model as vi = 2M ?i (i ? [M ]), in which 2j?i case the matrix with entries P (i, j) = 1+2 j?i is Toeplitz. Finally, given that we have been able to derive explicit (combinatorial) expressions for |QM | and |QP L |, it might be interesting to note that, somewhat surprisingly at first sight, no such expression exists for the total number of partial orders on M elements. 5 Experiments We complement our theoretical results by an empirical study, in which we compare the different approaches on the SUSHI data set,1 a standard benchmark for preference learning. Based on a food-chain survey, this data set contains complete rankings of 10 types of sushi provided by 5000 customers, where each customer is characterized by 11 numeric features. Our evaluation is done by measuring the tradeoff between correctness and completeness achieved by varying the threshold q in (1). More concretely, we use the measures that were proposed in [6]: correctness is measured by the gamma rank correlation between the true ranking and the predicted partial order (with values in [?1, +1]), and completeness is defined by one minus the fraction of pairwise comparisons on which the model abstains. Obviously, the two criteria are conflicting: increasing completeness typically comes along with reducing correctness and vice versa, at least if the learner is effective in the sense of abstaining from those decisions that are indeed most uncertain. 1 Available online at http://www.kamishima.net/sushi 7 1 0,4 0,8 0,3 derived-MS 0,2 derived-MK derived-PL 0,1 correctness correctness 0,5 0,6 derived-PL 0,4 direct 0,2 direct 0 0 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 0 completeness 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 completeness Figure 1: Tradeoff between completeness and correctness for the SUSHI label ranking data set: Existing pairwise method (direct) versus the probabilistic approach based on the PL model and Mallows model with Spearman?s rho (MS) and Kendall (MK) as distance measure. The figure on the right corresponds to the original data set with rankings of size 10, while and the figure on the left shows results for rankings of size 6. We compare the original method of [6] with our new proposal, calling the former direct, because the pairwise preference degrees on which we threshold are estimated directly, and the latter derived, because these degrees are derived from probability distributions on ?. As a label ranker, we used the instance-based approach of [5] with a neighborhood size of 50. We conducted a 10-fold cross validation and averaged the completeness/correctness curves over all test instances. Due to computational reasons, we restricted the experiments with the Mallows model to a reduced data set with only six labels, namely the first six of the ten sushis. (The aforementioned label ranker is based on an instance-wise maximum likelihood estimation of the probability distribution P on ?; in the case of the Mallows model, this involves the estimation of the center ranking ?0 , which is done by searching the discrete space ?, that is, a space of size |M !|.) The experimental results are summarized in Figure 1. The main conclusion that can be drawn from these results is that, as expected, our probabilistic approach does indeed achieve a better tradeoff between completeness and correctness than the original one, especially in the sense that it spans a wider range of values for the former. Indeed, with the direct approach, it is not possible to go beyond a completeness of around 0.4, whereas our probabilistic methods always allow for predicting complete rankings (i.e., to achieve a completeness of 1). Besides, we observe that the tradeoff curves of our new methods are even lifted toward a higher level of correctness. Among the probabilistic models, the PL model performs particularly well, although the differences are rather small. Similar results are obtained on a number of other benchmark data sets for label ranking. These results can be found in the supplementary material. 6 Summary and Conclusions The idea of producing predictions in the form of a partial order by thresholding a (valued) pairwise preference relation is meaningful in the sense that a learner abstains on the most unreliable comparisons. While this idea has first been realized in [6] in an ad-hoc manner, we put it on a firm mathematical grounding that guarantees consistency and, via variation of the threshold, allows for exploiting the whole spectrum between a complete ranking and an empty relation. Both variants of our probabilistic approach, the one based on the Mallows and the other one based the PL model, are theoretically sound, semantically meaningful, and show strong performance in first experimental studies. The PL model may appear especially appealing due to its expressivity, and is also advantageous from a computational perspective. 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Nonparametric modeling of partially ranked data. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:2401?2429, 2008. [18] T. Lu and C. Boutilier. Learning Mallows models with pairwise preferences. In Proc. ICML? 2011, pages 145?152, Bellevue, USA, 2011. Omnipress. [19] R. Luce and P. Suppes. Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, chapter Preference, Utility and Subjective Probability, pages 249?410. Wiley, 1965. [20] J. Marden. Analyzing and Modeling Rank Data. Chapman and Hall, 1995. [21] M. Meila and H. Chen. Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized mallows models. In Proc. UAI?2010, pages 358?367, Catalina Island, USA, 2010. AUAI Press. [22] T. Qin, X. Geng, and T.Y. Liu. A new probabilistic model for rank aggregation. In Proc. NIPS?2010, pages 1948?1956, Vancouver, Canada, 2010. Curran Associates. [23] M. Rademaker and B. De Baets. A threshold for majority in the context of aggregating partial order relations. In Proc. WCCI?2010, pages 1?4, Barcelona, Spain, 2010. IEEE. [24] R.P. Stanley. 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Action-Model Based Multi-agent Plan Recognition Hankz Hankui Zhuo Department of Computer Science Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China 510006 [email protected] Qiang Yang Huawei Noah?s Ark Research Lab Core Building 2, Hong Kong Science Park, Shatin, Hong Kong [email protected] Subbarao Kambhampati Department of Computer Science and Engineering Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, US 85287-5406 [email protected] Abstract Multi-Agent Plan Recognition (MAPR) aims to recognize dynamic team structures and team behaviors from the observed team traces (activity sequences) of a set of intelligent agents. Previous MAPR approaches required a library of team activity sequences (team plans) be given as input. However, collecting a library of team plans to ensure adequate coverage is often difficult and costly. In this paper, we relax this constraint, so that team plans are not required to be provided beforehand. We assume instead that a set of action models are available. Such models are often already created to describe domain physics; i.e., the preconditions and effects of effects actions. We propose a novel approach for recognizing multi-agent team plans based on such action models rather than libraries of team plans. We encode the resulting MAPR problem as a satisfiability problem and solve the problem using a state-of-the-art weighted MAX-SAT solver. Our approach also allows for incompleteness in the observed plan traces. Our empirical studies demonstrate that our algorithm is both effective and efficient in comparison to state-of-the-art MAPR methods based on plan libraries. 1 Introduction Multi-Agent Plan Recognition (MAPR) seeks an explanation of observed team-action traces. From the activity sequences of a set of agents, MAPR aims to identify the dynamic team structures and team behaviors of agents. The MAPR problem has important applications in analyzing data from automated monitoring, situation awareness, intelligence surveillance and analysis [4]. Many approaches have been proposed in the past to automatically recognize team plans given an observed team trace as input. For instance, Banerjee et al. [4, 3] proposed to formalize MAPR with a new model. They solved MAPR problems using a first-cut approach, provided that a fully observed team trace and a library of full team plans were given as input. To relax the full observability constraint, Zhuo and Li [19] proposed a MARS system to recognize team plans based on partially observed team traces and libraries of partial team plans. 1 Despite the success of these previous approaches, they all assume that a library of team plans has been collected beforehand and provided as input. However, there are many applications where collecting and maintaining a library of team plans is difficult and costly. For example, in military operations, it is difficult and expensive to collect team plans, since activities of team-mates may consume lots of resources such as ammunition and human labor. Collecting a smaller library is not an option since it is infeasible to recognize team plans if they are not covered by the library. It is thus useful to design approaches for solving the MAPR problem where we do not require libraries of team plans to be known. In this paper, we advocate replacing the plan library with a compact action model of the domain. In contrast to plan libraries, action models are easier to specify (in terms of preconditions and effects of each type of activity). Moreover, in principle action models provide full coverage to recognize any team plans. The specific algorithmic framework we develop is called DARE, which stands for Domain- model based multi-Agent REcognition, to recognize multi-agent plans. DARE does not require plan libraries to be given as input. Instead, DARE takes as input a team trace and a set of action models. DARE also allows the observed traces to be incomplete, i.e., there can be To fill these gaps, DARE leverages all possible constraints both from the plan traces and from its knowledge of how a plan works in terms of its causal structure. To do this, DARE first builds a set of hard constraints that encode the correctness property of the team plans, and a set of soft constraints that encode the optimal utility property of team plans based on the input team trace and action models. After that, it solves all these constraints using a state-of-the-art weighted MAX-SAT solver, such as MaxSatz [10], and converts the solution to a set of team plans as output. We organize the rest of the paper as follows. In the next section, we first introduce the related work including single agent plan recognition and multi-agent plan recognition, and then give our formulation of the MAPR problem. After that, we present DARE and discuss its properties. Finally, we evaluate DARE in the experimental section and present our conclusions. 2 Related work The plan recognition problem has been addressed by many researchers. Kautz and Allen proposed an approach to recognize plans based on parsing observed actions as sequences of subactions and essentially model this knowledge as a context-free rule in an ?action grammar? [9]. Bui et al. presented approaches to probabilistic plan recognition problems [5, 7]. Instead of using a library of plans, Ramrez and Geffner [12] proposed an approach to solving the plan recognition problem using slightly modified planning algorithms, assuming the action models were given as input. Note that action models can be created by experts or learnt by previous systems, such as ARMS [18] and LAMP [20]. Singla and Mooney proposed an approach to abductive reasoning using a first-order probabilistic logic to recognize plans [15]. Amir and Gal addressed a plan recognition approach to recognizing student behaviors using virtual science laboratories [1]. Ramirez and Geffner exploited off-the-shelf classical planners to recognize probabilistic plans [13]. Despite the success of these systems, a limitation is that they all focus only on single agent plans. For multi-agent plan recognition, Sukthankar and Sycara presented an approach that leveraged several types of agent resource dependencies and temporal ordering constraints in the plan library to prune the size of the plan library considered for each observation trace [16]. Avrahami-Zilberbrand and Kaminka preferred a library of single agent plans to team plans, but identified dynamic teams based on the assumption that all agents in a team executing the same plan under the temporal constraints of that plan [2]. The constraint on activities of the agents that can form a team can be severely limiting when team-mates can execute coordinated but different behaviors. Instead of using the assumption that agents in the same team should execute a common activity, besides the approaches introduced in the introduction section [4, 3, 19], Sadilek and Kautz provided a unified framework to model and recognize activities that involved multiple related individuals playing a variety of roles [14]; Masato et al. proposed a probabilistic model based on conditional random fields to automatically recognize the composition of teams and team activities in relation to a plan [11]. In these systems, although coordinated activities can be recognized, they either assume there is a set of real-world GPS data available, or assume that team traces and team plans can be fully observed. In this paper, we allow that: (1) agents can execute coordinated different activities in a team, (2) team traces can be partial, and (3) neither GPS data nor team plans are needed. 2 3 Problem Definition We first define a team trace. Let = { 1 , 2 , . . . , n } be a set of agents, and O = [otj ] be an observed team trace. Let otj be the observed activity executed by agent j at time step t, where 0 < t ? T and 0 < j ? n. A team trace O is partial, if some elements in O are empty (denoted by null), i.e., there are missing values in O. We then define an action model. In the STRIPS language [6], an action model is a tuple ha, Pre(a), Add(a), Del(a)i, where a is an action name with zero or more parameters, Pre(a) is a list of preconditions of a, Add(a) is a list of add effects, and Del(a) is a list of deleting effects. A set of action models is denoted by A. An action name with zero of more parameters is called an activity. An observed activity otj in a partial team trace O is either an instantiated action of A or noop or null, where noop is an empty activity that does nothing. An initial state s0 is a set of propositions that describes a closed world state from which the team trace O starts to be observed. In other words, activities at time step t = 0 can be applied in the initial state s0 . When we say an activity can be applied in a state, we mean the activity?s preconditions are satisfied by the state. A set of goals G, each of which is a set of propositions, describes the probable targets of the team trace. We assume s0 and G can both be observed by sensing devices. A team is composed of a subset of agents 0 = { j1 , j2 , . . . , jm }. A team plan is defined as p = [atk ]0<k?m 0<t?T , where m ? n, and atk is an activity or noop. A set of correct team plans P is required to have properties P1-P5. P1: P is a partition of the team trace O, i.e., each element of O should be in exactly one p of P and each activity of p should be an element of O; P2: P should cover all the observed activities, i.e., for each p 2 P and 0 < t ? T and 0 < k ? m, if otjk 6= null, then atk = otjk , where atk 2 p and otjk 2 O; P3: P is executable starting from s0 and achieves some goal g 2 G, i.e., at? is executable in state st 1 for all 0 < t ? T , and achieves g after step T , where at? = hat1 , at2 , . . . , atm i; P4: Each team plan p 2 P is associated with a likelihood ?(p): P 7! R+ . ?(p) specifies the likelihood of recognizing team plan p, and can be affected by many factors, including the number of agents in the team, the cost of executing p, etc. The value of ?(p) is composed of 1 two parts ?1 (Nactivity (p)) and ?2 (Nagent (p)), i.e., ?(p) = ?1 (Nactivity (p))+? , 2 (Nagent (p)) where ?1 (Nactivity (p)) depends on Nactivity (p), the number of activities of p, and ?2 (Nagent (p)) depends on Nagent (p), the number of agents (i.e., team-mates) of p. Generally, ?1 (Nactivity (p)) (or ?2 (Nagent (p))) becomes larger when Nactivity (p) (or Nagent (p)) increases. Note that more agents would have a smaller likelihood (or larger cost) to coordinate these agents to successfully execute p. Thus, we require that ?2 should satisfy the condition: ?2 (n1 + n2 ) > ?2 (n1 ) + ?2 (n2 ). For each goal g 2 G, the output plan P should have the largest likelihood, i.e., X P = arg max ?(p), 0 P p2P 0 where P 0 is a team-plan set that achieves g. Note that we presume that teams are (usually) organized with the largest likelihood. P5: Any pair of interacting agents must belong to the same team plan. In other words, if an agent i interacts with another agent j , i.e., i provides or deletes some conditions of j , then i and j should be in the same team, and activities of agents in the same team compose a team plan. Agents exist in exactly one team plan, i.e., team plans do not share any common agents. Our multi-agent plan recognition problem can be stated as: Given a partially observed team trace O, a set of action models A, an initial state s0 , and a set of goals G, the recognition algorithm must output a set of team plans P with the maximal likelihood to achieve some goal g 2 G, where P satisfies the properties P1-P5. 3 T h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 1 a1 a3 noop null a7 2 noop null null null noop 3 null null a2 a6 null 4 a4 a5 null noop noop 5 noop null noop noop null E C D A B F G (b). initial state C B A G F D E (c). goals {g} a1: unstack(C B); a2: stack(B A); a3: unstack(E D); a4: stack (C B); a5: stack(F D); a6: putdown(D); a7: pickup(G); (a). team trace pickup(?x ? block) precondition: (handempty)(clear ?x)(ontable ?x) effect: (holding ?x)(not (handempty)) (not (clear ?x))(not (ontable)) putdown(?x ? block) precondition: (holding ?x) effect: (clear ?x) (ontable ?x)(handempty) (not (holding ?x)) unstack(?x ? block ?y ? block) precondition: (on ?x ?y) (clear ?x) (handempty) effect: (holding ?x)(clear ?y)(not (clear ?x)) (not (handempty))(not (on ?x ?y)) stack(?x ? block ?y ? block) precondition: (holding ?x) (clear ?y) Effect: (not (holding ?x))(not (clear ?y)) (clear ?x) (handempty) (on ?x ?y) (I). inputs (d). action models T h1 h3 T h2 h4 h5 1 a1 noop 1 a3 noop a7 2 noop a8 2 a10 a9 noop 3 noop a2 3 a11 a6 noop 4 a4 noop 4 a5 noop noop 5 noop noop 5 noop noop a12 (a). team plan p1 (b). team plan p2 a1: unstack(C B); a2: stack(B A); a3: unstack(E D); a4: stack (C B); a5: stack(F D); a6: putdown(D); a7: pickup(G); a8: pickup(B); a9: unstack(D F); a10: putdown(E); a11: pickup(F); a12: stack(G F); (II). outputs Figure 1: An example of the input and output of our problem from the blocks domain. (I) is an input example, where ?(b) the initial state s0 ? is a set of propositions: {(ontable A)(ontable B)(ontable F)(ontable G)(on C B)(on D F)(on E D)(clear A)(clear C)(clear E)(clear G)(handempty)}; ?(c) goals {g}? is a goal set composed of one goal g, and g is composed of propositions: {(ontable A)(ontable D)(ontable E)(on B A)(on C B)(on F D)(on G F)(clear C)(clear G)(clear E)}. (II) is an output example, which is the set of team plans {p1 , p2 }. Figure 1 shows an example multi-agent plan recognition problem from blocks world1 . In part (a) of Figure 1(I), the first column indicates the time steps from 1 to 5. h1 , . . . , h5 are five hoist agents. The value null suggests the missing observation, and noop suggests the empty activity. We assume ?1 and ?2 are defined by: ?1 (k) = k, and ?2 (k) = k 2 . Based on ?1 and ?2 , the corresponding output is shown in Figure 1(II), which is the set of two team plans {p1 , p2 }. 4 DARE Algorithm Framework Algorithm 1 below describes the plan recognition process in DARE. In the subsequent subsections, we describe each step of this algorithm in detail. Algorithm 1 An overview of our algorithm framework input: a partial team trace O, an initial state s0 , a set of goals G, and a set of action models A; output: a set of team plans P ; 1: max = 0; 2: for each g 2 G do 3: build a set of candidate activities ?; 4: build a set of hard constraints based on ?; 5: build a set of soft constraints based on the likelihood ?; 6: solve all the constraints using a weighted MAX-SAT solver, with hmax0 , soli as output; 7: if max0 > max then 8: max = max0 ; 9: convert the solution sol to a set of team plans P 0 , and let P = P 0 ; 10: end if 11: end for 12: return P ; 4.1 Candidate activities In Step 3 of Algorithm 1, we build a set of candidate activities ? by instantiating each parameter of action models in A with all objects in the initial state s0 , team trace O and goal g. We perform the following phases. We first scan each parameter of propositions (or activities) in s0 , O, and g, and collect sets of different objects (note that each set of objects corresponds to a type, e.g., there 1 http://www.cs.toronto.edu/aips2000/ 4 is a type ?block? in the blocks domain). Second, we substitute each parameter of each action model in A with its corresponding objects (the correspondence relationship is reflected by type, i.e., the parameters of action models and objects should belong to the same type), which results in a set of different activities, called candidate activities ?. Note that we also add an noop activity in ?. For example, there are seven objects {A, B, C, D, E, F, G} corresponding to type ?block? in Figure 1(I). The set of candidate activities ? is: {noop, pickup(A), pickup(B), pickup(C), pickup(D), pickup(E), pickup(F), pickup(G), . . . }, where the ?dots? suggests other activities that are generated by instantiating parameters of actions ?putdown, stack, unstack?. 4.2 Hard constraints With the set of candidate activities ?, we build a set of hard constraints to ensure the properties P1 to P3 in Step 4 of Algorithm 1. We associate each element otj 2 O with a variable vtj , i.e., we have a set of variables V = [vtj ]0<j?n 0<t?T , which is also called a variable matrix. Each variable in the variable matrix will be assigned with a specific activity in candidate activities ?, and we will partition these variables to attain a set of team plans that have the properties P1-P5 based on the assignments. According to properties P2 and P3, we build two kinds of hard constraints: Observation constraints and Causal-link constraints. Note that P1 is guaranteed since the set of team plans that is output is a partition of the team trace. Observation constraints For P2, i.e., given a team plan p = [atk ]0<k?m 0<t?T composed of agents 0 = { j1 , j2 , . . . , jm }, if otjk 6= null, then atk = otjk , this suggests vtjk should have the same activity of otjk if otjk 6= null, since the team plan p is a partition of V and atk is an element of of p. Thus, we build hard constraints as follows. For each 0 < t ? T and 0 < j ? n, we have (otj 6= null) ! (vtj = otj ). We call this kind of hard constraints the observation constraints, since they are built based on the partially observed activities of O. Causal-link constraints For P3, i.e., each team plan p should be executable starting from the initial state s0 , this suggests each row of variables hvt1 , vt2 , . . . , vtn i should be executable, where 0 < t ? T . Note that ?executable? suggests that the preconditions of vtj should be satisfied. This means, for each 0 < t ? T and 0 < j ? n, the following constraints should be satisfied: ? each precondition of vtj either exists in the initial state s0 or is added by vt0 j 0 , and is not deleted by any activity between t0 and t, where t0 < t and 0 < j 0 ? n. ? likewise, each proposition in goal g either exists in the initial state s0 or is added by vt0 j 0 , and is not deleted by any activity between t0 and T , where t0 < T and 0 < j 0 ? n. We call this kind of hard constraints causal-link constraints, since they are created according to the causal link requirement of executable plans. 4.3 Soft constraints In Step 5 of Algorithm 1, we build a set of soft constraints based on the likelihood function ?. Each variable in V can be assigned with any element of the candidate activities ?. We require that all variables in V should be assigned with exactly one activity from ?. For each ha1 , a2 , . . . , a|V | i 2 ? ? . . . ? ?, we have ^ (vi = ai ). 0<i?|V | We calculate the weights of these constraints by the following phases. First, we partition the variable matrix V based on property P5 into a set of team plans P , i.e., agent i provides or deletes some conditions of j , then i and j should be in the same team, and activities of agents in the same team compose a team plan. Second, for all team plans, we calculate the total likelihood ?(P ), i.e., X X 1 ?(P ) = ?(p) = , ?1 (Nactivity (p)) + ?2 (Nagent (p)) p2P p2P 5 and let ?(P ) be the weights of the soft constraints. Note that we aim to maximize the total likelihood when solving these constraints (together with hard constraints) with a weighted MAX-SAT solver. 4.4 Solving the constraints In Step 6 of Algorithm 1, we put both hard and soft constraints together, and solve these constraints using Maxsatz [10], a MAX-SAT solver . The solution sol is an assignment for all variables in V , and max0 is the total weight of the satisfied constraints corresponding to the solution sol. In Step 8 of Algorithm 1, we partition V into a set of team plans P based on P5. As an example, in (a) of Figure 1(I), the team trace?s corresponding variable in V is assigned with activities, which means the null values in (a) of Figure 1(I) are replaced with the corresponding assigned activities in V . According to property P5, we can simply partition the team trace into two team plans, as is shown in Figure 1(II), by checking preconditions and effects of activities in the team trace. 4.5 Properties of DARE DARE can be shown to have the following properties: Theorem 1: (Conditional Soundness) If the weighted MAX-SAT solver is powerful enough to optimally solve all solvable SAT problems, DARE is sound. Theorem 2: (Conditional Completeness) If the weighted MAX-SAT solver we exploit in DARE is complete, DARE is also complete. For Theorem 1, we only need to check that the solutions output by DARE satisfy P1-P5. P2 and P3 are guarranteed by observation constraints and causal-link constraints; P4 is guaranteed by the soft constraints built in Section 4.3 and the MAX-SAT solver; P1 and P5 are both guaranteed by the partition step in Section 4.4, i.e., partitioning the variable matrix into a set of team plans; that is to say, the conditional soundness property holds. For Theorem 2, since all steps in Algorithm 1, except Step 6 that calls a weighted MAX-SAT solver, can be executed in finite time, the completeness property only depends on the weighted MAX-SAT solver, which means the conditional completeness property holds. 5 Experiments 5.1 Dataset and Evaluation Criterion We evaluate DARE in three planning domains: blocks, driverlog2 and rovers2 . We modify the three domains for multi-agent setting. In blocks, there are multiple hoists, which are viewed as agents that perform actions of pickup, putdown, stack and unstack. In driverlog, there are multiple trucks, drivers and hoists, which are agents that can group together to form different teams (trucks and drivers can be in the same team, likewise for hoists.). In rovers, there are multiple rovers that can group together to form different teams. For each domain, we set T = 50 and generate 50 team traces with the size of T ? n for each n 2 {20, 40, 60, 80, 100}. For each team trace, we have a set of optimal team plans (which is viewed as the ground truth), denoted by Ptrue , and its corresponding goal gtrue , which best explains the team trace according to the likelihood function ?. We define the likelihood function by: ? = ?1 + ?2 , where ?1 (k) = k and ?2 (k) = k 2 , as is presented in the end of the problem definition section. We randomly delete a subset of activities from each team trace with respect to a specific percentage ?. We will test different ? values with 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%. As an example, ? = 10% suggests there are 10 activities deleted from a team trace with 100 activities. We also randomly add 10 additional goals, together with gtrue , to form the goal set G, as is presented in the problem definition section. We define the accuracy by: the number of correctly recognized team plan sets = , the total number of team traces 2 http://planning.cis.strath.ac.uk/competition/ 6 where ?correctly recognized team plan sets? suggests the recognized team plan sets and goals are the same as the expected team plan sets {Ptrue } and goals G. We generate 100 team plans as the library as is described by MARS [19], and compare the recognition results with MARS as a baseline. 5.2 Experimental Results We evaluate DARE in the following aspects: (1) accuracy with respect to different number of agents; (2) accuracy with respect to different percentages of null values; and (3) the running time. 5.2.1 Varying the number of agents (b). driverlog (a). blocks 0.95 0.95 ? MARS 0.9 (c). rovers 0.95 ? MARS 0.9 0.85 0.9 0.85 DARE? 0.85 ? MARS 0.8 ? ? ? ? DARE 0.8 0.8 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.6 20 40 60 80 number of agents 0.6 20 100 40 60 80 number of agents ? DARE 0.6 20 100 40 60 80 number of agents 100 Figure 2: Accuracies with respect to different number of agents We would like to evaluate the change of accuracies when the number of agents increases. We set the percentage of null values to be 30%, and also ran DARE five times to calculate an average of accuracies. The result is shown in Figure 2. From the figure, we found that the accuracies of both DARE and MARS generally decreased when the number of agents increased. This is because the problem space is enlarged when the number of agents increases, which makes the available information be decreased comparing to the large problem space, and not enough to attain high accuracies. We also found that the accuracy of DARE was lower than MARS at the beginning, and then became better than MARS as the number of agents became larger. This indicates that DARE has better performance in handling large number of agents based on action models. This is because DARE builds the MAX-SAT problem space (described as proposition variables and constraints) based on model inferences (i.e., action models), while MARS is based on instances (i.e., plan library). When the number of agents is small, the problem space built by MARS is smaller than that built by DARE; when the number of agents becomes larger, the problem space built by MARS becomes larger than that built by DARE; the larger the problem space is, the more difficult it is for MAX-SAT to solve the problem; thus, DARE performs worse than MARS with less agents, while better with more agents. (b). driverlog (a). blocks 1.05 1 (c). rovers 1.05 1.05 1 1 ? DARE 0.95 0.95 0.95 ? MARS ? MARS 0.9 ? MARS 0.9 ? 0.85 ? ? 0.9 0.85 ? DARE 0.85 0.8 0.8 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.8 DARE? 0 10 20 30 percentage 40 50 0.7 0.7 0 10 20 30 percentage 40 50 0.65 0 10 20 30 percentage 40 50 Figure 3: Accuracies with respect to different percentages of null values. 5.2.2 Varying the percentage of null values We set the number of agents to be 60, and run DARE five times to calculate average of accuracies with a percentage ? of null values. We found both accuracies of DARE and MARS decreased when 7 the percentage ? increased, due to less information provided when the percentage increasing. When the percentage is 0%, both DARE and MARS can recognize all the team traces successfully. By observing all three domains in Figure 3, we find that DARE does not function as well as MARS when the percentage of incompleteness is large. This relative advantage for the library-based approach is due in large part to the fact that all team plans to be recognized are covered by the small library in the experiment, and the library of team plans will help reduce the recognition problem space compared to DARE. We conjecture that if the team plans to be recognized are not covered by the library (because of the size restrictions on the library), DARE will perform better than MARS. In this case, MARS cannot successfully recognize some team plans. 5.2.3 The running time (a) blocks (b) driverlog 800 600 400 200 1200 cpu time (seconds) 1000 0 (c) rovers 1200 cpu time (seconds) cpu time (seconds) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 20 40 60 80 number of agents 100 0 1000 800 600 400 200 20 40 60 80 number of agents 100 0 20 40 60 80 number of agents 100 Figure 4: The CPU time of DARE. We show the average CPU time of DARE over 50 team traces with respect to different number of agents in Figure 4. As can be seen from the figure, the running time increases polynomially with the number of input agents. This can be verified by fitting the relationship between the number of agents and the running time to a performance curve with a polynomial of order 2 or 3. For example, the fit polynomial for blocks is 0.0821x2 + 20.1171x 359.8. 6 Final Remark In this paper, we presented a system called DARE for recognizing multi-agent team plans from incomplete observed plan traces based on action models . This approach has significant advantage over previous approaches that make use of a library of predefined team plans. Such plan libraries are difficult to obtain in many applications. With the action model based approach, we first build a set of candidate activities, and then build sets of hard and soft constraints to finally recognize team plans. Our experiments show that DARE is effective in three benchmark domains compared to the state-of-the-art multi-agent plan recognition system MARS that relies on a library of team plans. Our approach is thus well suited for scenarios where collecting a library of team plans is infeasible before performing team plan recognition tasks. In the current work, we assume that the action models are complete. A more realistic assumption is to allow the models to be incomplete [8, 17]. In future, we plan to extend DARE to work with incomplete action models. Another assumption in the current model is that it expects as input the alternative sets of goals, one of which the observed plan is expected to be targeting. We plan to relax this so DARE can take as input a set of potential goals, with the understanding that the observed plan is achieving a bounded subset of these goals. We believe that both these extensions can be easily accommodated into the MAX-SAT framework of DARE. Acknowledgments Hankz Hankui Zhuo thanks Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China (No. S2011040001869) and Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No. 20110171120054) for the support of this research. Qiang Yang thanks Hong Kong RGC GRF Projects 621010 and 621211 for the support of this research. Kambhampati?s research is supported in part by the NSF grant IIS201330813 and ONR grants N00014-09-1-0017, N00014-07-1-1049, and N000140610058. 8 References [1] Ofra Amir and Yaakov (Kobi) Gal. Plan recognition in virtual laboratories. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2011. [2] Dorit Avrahami-Zilberbrand and Gal A. Kaminka. Towards dynamic tracking of multi-agents teams: An initial report. In Proceedings of the AAAI Workshop on Plan, Activity, and Intent Recognition (PAIR 2007), 2007. [3] Bikramjit Banerjee and Landon Kraemer. Branch and price for multi-agent plan recognition. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2011. [4] Bikramjit Banerjee, Landon Kraemer, and Jeremy Lyle. Multi-agent plan recognition: formalization and algorithms. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2010. [5] Hung H. Bui. A general model for online probabilistic plan recognition. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2003. [6] R. Fikes and N. J. Nilsson. STRIPS: A new approach to the application of theorem proving to problem solving. Artificial Intelligence Journal, pages 189?208, 1971. [7] Christopher W. Geib and Robert P. Goldman. A probabilistic plan recognition algorithm based on plan tree grammars. Artificial Intelligence, 173(11):1101?1132, 2009. [8] Subbarao Kambhampati. Model-lite planning for the web age masses: The challenges of planning with incomplete and evolving domain models. In AAAI, 2007. [9] Henry A. Kautz and James F. Allen. Generalized plan recognition. In Proceedings of AAAI, 1986. [10] Chu Min LI, Felip Manya, Nouredine Mohamedou, and Jordi Planes. Exploiting cycle structures in Max-SAT. In In proceedings of 12th international conference on the Theory and Applications of Satisfiability Testing (SAT-09), pages 467?480, 2009. [11] Daniele Masato, Timothy J. Norman, Wamberto W. Vasconcelos, and Katia Sycara. Agentoriented incremental team and activity recognition. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2011. [12] Miquel Ramrez and Hector Geffner. Plan recognition as planning. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2009. [13] Miquel Ramrez and Hector Geffner. Probabilistic plan recognition using off-the-shelf classical planners. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2010. [14] Adam Sadilek and Henry Kautz. Recognizing multi-agent activities from gps data. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2010. [15] Parag Singla and Raymond Mooney. Abductive markov logic for plan recognition. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2011. [16] Gita Sukthankar and Katia Sycara. Hypothesis pruning and ranking for large plan recognition problems. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2008. [17] Minh Do. Tuan Nguyen, Subbarao Kambhampati. Synthesizing robust plans under incomplete domain models. In Proc. AAAI Workshop on Generalized Planning, 2011. [18] Qiang Yang, Kangheng Wu, and Yunfei Jiang. Learning action models from plan examples using weighted MAX-SAT. Artificial Intelligence, 171:107?143, February 2007. [19] Hankz Hankui Zhuo and Lei Li. Multi-agent plan recognition with partial team traces and plan libraries. In Proceedings of IJCAI, 2011. [20] Hankz Hankui Zhuo, Qiang Yang, Derek Hao Hu, and Lei Li. Learning complex action models with quantifiers and implications. Artificial Intelligence, 174(18):1540 ? 1569, 2010. 9
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Neurally Plausible Reinforcement Learning of Working Memory Tasks Jaldert O. Rombouts, Sander M. Bohte CWI, Life Sciences Amsterdam, The Netherlands {j.o.rombouts, s.m.bohte}@cwi.nl Pieter R. Roelfsema Netherlands Institute for Neuroscience Amsterdam, The Netherlands [email protected] Abstract A key function of brains is undoubtedly the abstraction and maintenance of information from the environment for later use. Neurons in association cortex play an important role in this process: by learning these neurons become tuned to relevant features and represent the information that is required later as a persistent elevation of their activity [1]. It is however not well known how such neurons acquire these task-relevant working memories. Here we introduce a biologically plausible learning scheme grounded in Reinforcement Learning (RL) theory [2] that explains how neurons become selective for relevant information by trial and error learning. The model has memory units which learn useful internal state representations to solve working memory tasks by transforming partially observable Markov decision problems (POMDP) into MDPs. We propose that synaptic plasticity is guided by a combination of attentional feedback signals from the action selection stage to earlier processing levels and a globally released neuromodulatory signal. Feedback signals interact with feedforward signals to form synaptic tags at those connections that are responsible for the stimulus-response mapping. The neuromodulatory signal interacts with tagged synapses to determine the sign and strength of plasticity. The learning scheme is generic because it can train networks in different tasks, simply by varying inputs and rewards. It explains how neurons in association cortex learn to 1) temporarily store task-relevant information in non-linear stimulus-response mapping tasks [1, 3, 4] and 2) learn to optimally integrate probabilistic evidence for perceptual decision making [5, 6]. 1 Introduction By giving reward at the right times, animals like monkeys can be trained to perform complex tasks that require the mapping of sensory stimuli onto responses, the storage of information in working memory and the integration of uncertain sensory evidence. While significant progress has been made in reinforcement learning theory [2, 7, 8, 9], a generic learning rule for neural networks that is biologically plausible and also accounts for the versatility of animal learning has yet to be described. We propose a simple biologically plausible neural network model that can solve a variety of working memory tasks. The network predicts action-values (Q-values) for different possible actions [2], and it learns to minimize SARSA [10, 2] temporal difference (TD) prediction errors by stochastic gradient descent. The model has memory units inspired by neurons in lateral intraparietal (LIP) cortex and prefrontal cortex. Such neurons exhibit persistent activations for task related cues in visual working memory tasks [1, 11, 4]. Memory units learn to represent an internal state that allows the network to solve working memory tasks by transforming POMDPs into MDPs [25]. The updates for synaptic weights have two components. The first is a synaptic tag [12] that arises from an interaction between feedforward and feedback activations. Tags form on those synapses that are responsible for the chosen actions by an attentional feedback process [13]. The second factor is a 1 Feedforward Instant On Feedback Action Feedforward Off Sensory Association Q-values Action Selection Figure 1: Model and learning (see section 2). Pentagons represent synaptic tags. global neuromodulatory signal ? that reflects the TD error, and this signal interacts with the tags to yield synaptic plasticity. TD-errors are represented by dopamine neurons in the ventral tegmental area and substantia nigra [9, 14]. The persistence of tags permits learning if time passes between synaptic activity and the animal?s choice, for example if information is stored in working memory or evidence accumulates before a decision is made. The learning rules are biologically plausible because the information required for computing the synaptic updates is available at the synapse. We call the new learning scheme AuGMEnT (Attention-Gated MEmory Tagging). We first discuss the model and then show that it explains how neurons in association cortex learn to 1) temporarily store task-relevant information in non-linear stimulus-response mapping tasks [1, 3, 4] and 2) learn to optimally integrate probabilistic evidence for perceptual decision making [5, 6]. 2 Model AuGMEnT is modeled as a three layer neural network (Fig. 1). Units in the motor (output) layer predict Q-values [2] for their associated actions. Predictions are learned by stochastic gradient descent on prediction errors. The sensory layer contains two types of units; instantaneous and transient on(+)/off(-) units. Instantaneous units xi encode sensory inputs si (t), and + and - units encode positive and negative changes in sensory inputs with respect to the previous time step t ? 1: x? i (t) = [si (t ? 1) ? si (t)]+ , x+ i (t) = [si (t) ? si (t ? 1)]+ ; (1) where [.]+ is a threshold operator that returns 0 for all negative inputs but leaves positive inputs ? unchanged. Each sensory variable si is thus represented by three units xi , x+ i , xi (we only explicitly write the time dependence if it is ambiguous). We denote the set of differentiating units as x0 . The hidden layer models the association cortex and it contains regular units and memory units. The regular units j (Fig. 1, circles) are fully connected to the instantaneous units i in the sensory layer R R by connections vij ; v0j is a bias weight. Regular unit activations yjR are computed as: X 1 R yjR = ?(aR with aR vij xi . (2) j )= j = R 1 + exp (? ? aj ) i Memory units m (Fig. 1, diamonds) are fully connected to the +/- units in the sensory layer by M connections vlm and they derive their activations yjM (t) by integrating their inputs: X M M M M 0 ym = ?(aM vlm xl , (3) m ) with am = am (t ? 1) + l with ? as defined in eqn. (2). Output layer units k are fully connected to the hidden layer by connecR R M tions wjk (for regular hiddens, w0k is a bias weight) and wmk (for memory hiddens). Activations are computed as: X X R M M qk = yjR wjk + ym wmk . (4) m j 2 A Winner Takes All (WTA) competition now selects an action based on the estimated Q-values. We used a max-Boltzmann [15] controller which executes the action with the highest estimated Qvalue with probability 1 ?  and otherwise it chooses an action with probabilities according to the Boltzmann distribution: exp qk P r(zk = 1) = P . (5) 0 k0 exp qk The WTA mechanism then sets the activation of the winning unit to 1 and the activation of all other units to 0; zk = ?kK where ?kK is the Kronecker delta function. The winning unit sends feedback signals to the earlier processing layers, informing the rest of the network about the action that was taken. This feedback signal interacts with the feedforward activations to give rise to synaptic tags on those synapses that were involved in taking the decision. The tags then interact with a neuromodulatory signal ?, which codes a TD error, to modify synaptic strengths. 2.1 Learning After executing an action, the environment returns a new observation s0 , a scalar reward r, and possibly a signal indicating the end of a trial. The network computes a SARSA TD error [10, 2]: ? = r + ?qK 0 ? qK , (6) where qK 0 is the predicted value of the winning action for the new observation, and ? ? [0, 1] is the temporal discount parameter [2]. AuGMEnT learns by minimizing the squared prediction error E: 1 2 1 (?) = (r + ?qK 0 ? qK )2 , (7) 2 2 The synaptic updates have two factors. The first is a synaptic tag (Fig. 2, pentagons; equivalent to an eligibility trace in RL [2]) that arises from an interaction between feedforward and feedback activations. The second is a global neuromodulatory signal ? which interacts with these tags to yield synaptic plasticity. The updates can be derived by the chain rule for derivatives [16]. E= R The update for synapses wjk is: R ?wjk R ?T agjk ?E R R T agjk = ??(t)T agjk , ?qK ?qK R R (?? ? 1)T agjk + = (?? ? 1)T agjk + yjR zk , R ?wjk = ?? (8) = (9) R where ? is a learning rate, T agjk are the synaptic tags on synapses between regular hidden units ?E ?qK ?E R and the motor layer, and ? is a decay parameter [2]. Note that ?wjk ? ?? ?q R = ?? ?w R , K ?w jk jk holding with equality if ?? = 0. If ?? > 0, tags decay exponentially so that synapses that were responsible for previous actions are also assigned credit for the currently observed error. Equivalently, updates for synapses between memory units and motor units are: M ?wmk M ?T agmk = = M ??(t)T agmk , (?? ? M 1)T agmk (10) + M ym zk . (11) The updates for synapses between instantaneous sensory units and regular association units are: R ?vij R ?T agij ?E R R T agij = ??T agij , ?qK ?qK ?yjR ?aR j R (?? ? 1)T agij + R R R , ?yj ?aj ?vij = ?? (12) = (13) = 0 R R R (?? ? 1)T agij + wKj yj (1 ? yjR )xi , 0 (14) R where wKj are feedback weights from the motor layer back to the association layer. The intuition for the last equation is that the winning output unit K provides feedback to the units in the association layer that were responsible for its activation. Association units with a strong feedforward connection also have a strong feedback connection. As a result, synapses onto association units that 3 provided strong input to the winning unit will have the strongest plasticity. This ?attentional feedback? mechanism was introduced in [13]. For convenience, we have assumed that feedforward and feedback weights are symmetrical, but they can also be trained as in [13]. For the updates for the synapses between +/- sensory units and memory units we first approximate the activation aM m (see eqn. (3)) as: M aM m = am (t ? 1) + X M 0 M vlm xl ? vlm t X x0l (t0 ) , (15) t0 =0 l M which is a good approximation if the synapses vlm change slowly. We can then write the updates as: M ?vlm M ?T aglm ?E M M T aglm = ??T aglm , ?qK ?qK ?y M ?aM m M = ?T aglm + M m , M ?ym ?aM m ?vlm = ?? (16) (17) " = M ?T aglm + 0 M M ym (t)(1 wKj ? M ym (t)) t X # x0l (t0 ) . (18) t0 =0 Note that one can interpret a memory unit as a regular one that receives all sensory input in a trial simultaneously. For synapses onto memory units, we set ? = 0 to arrive at the last equation. The intuition behind the last equation is that because the activity of a memory unit does not decay, the influence of its inputs x0l on the activity in the motor layer does not decay either (?? = 0). A special condition occurs when the environment returns the end-trial signal. In this case, the estimate qK in eqn. (6) is set to 0 (see [2]) and after the synaptic updates we reset the memory units and synaptic tags, so that there is no confounding between different trials. AuGMEnT is biologically plausible because the information required for the synaptic updates is locally available by the interaction of feedforward and feedback signals and a globally released neuromodulator coding TD errors. As we will show, this mechanism is powerful enough to learn non-linear transformations and to create relevant working memories. 3 Experiments We tested AuGMEnT on a set of memory tasks that have been used to investigate the effects of training on neuronal activity in area LIP. Across all of our simulations, we fixed the configuration of the association layer (three regular units, four memory units) and Q-layer (three output units, for directing gaze to the left, center or right of a virtual screen). The input layer was tailored to the specific task (see below). In all tasks, we trained the network by trial and error to fixate on a fixation mark and to respond to task-related cues. As is usual in training animals for complex tasks, we used a small shaping reward rf ix (arbitrary units) to facilitate learning to fixate [17]. At the end of trials the model had to make an eye-movement to the left or right. The full task reward rf in was given if this saccade was accurate, while we aborted trials and gave no reward if the model made the wrong eye-movement or broke fixation before the go signal. We used a single set of parameters for the network; ? = 0.15; ? = 0.20; ? = 0.90;  = 0.025 and ? = 2.5, which shifts the sigmoidal activation function for association units so that that units with little input have almost zero output. Initial synaptic weights were drawn from a uniform distribution U ? [?0.25, 0.25]. For all tasks we used rf ix = 0.2 and rf in = 1.5. 3.1 Saccade/Antisaccade The memory saccade/anti-saccade task (Fig. 2A) is based on [3]. This task requires a non-linear transformation and cannot be solved by a direct mapping from sensory units to Q-value units. Trials started with an empty screen, shown for one time step. Then either a black or white fixation mark was shown indicating a pro-saccade or anti-saccade trial, respectively. The model had to fixate on the fixation mark within ten time-steps, or the trial was terminated. After fixating for two timesteps, a cue was presented on the left or right and a small shaping reward rf ix was given. The 4 L F R 0.65 0 C 0 0.65 SI Cue Location Pro-Saccade Left Cue Assoc. D R R R L L 0.5 Assoc. B 0.5 Assoc. Anti 0.5 Q Pro SI Trial Type Go Delay Cue Fixation A Anti-Saccade Right Cue Left Cue Right Cue 0 0 0 1 0 F F F F F F L L C D G F F F F F F R R C D G F F F F F F R R C D G F F F F F F L L C D G Figure 2: A Memory saccade/antisaccade task. B Model network. In the association layer, a regular unit and two memory units are color coded gray, green and orange, respectively. Output units L,F ,R are colored green, blue and red, respectively. C Unit activation traces for a sample trained network. Symbols in bottom graph indicate highest valued action. F, fixation onset; C, cue onset; D, delay; G, fixation offset (?Go? signal). Thick blue: fixate, dashed green: left, red: right. D Selectivity indices of memory units in saccade/antisaccade task (black) and in pro-saccade only task (red). cue was shown for one time-step, and then only the fixation mark was visible for two time-steps before turning off. In the pro-saccade condition, the offset of the fixation mark indicated that the model should make an eye-movement towards the cue location to collect rf in . In the anti-saccade condition, the model had to make an eye-movement away from the cue location. The model had to make the correct eye-movement within eight time steps. The input to the model (Fig. 2B) consisted of four binary variables representing the information on the virtual screen; two for the fixation marks and two for the cue location. Due to the +/? cells, the input layer thus had 12 binary units. We trained the models for at most 25, 000 trials, or until convergence. We measured convergence as the proportion of correct trials for the last 50 examples of all trial-types (N = 4). When this proportion reached 0.9 or higher for all trial-types, learning in the network was stopped and we evaluated accuracy on all trial types without stochastic exploration of actions. We considered learning successful if the model performed all trial-types accurately. We trained 10, 000 randomly initialized networks with and without a shaping reward (rf ix = 0). Of the networks that received fixation rewards, 9, 945 learned the task versus 7, 641 that did not receive fixation rewards; ?2 (1, N = 10, 000) = 2, 498, P < 10?6 . The 10, 000 models trained with shaping learned the complete task in a median of 4, 117 trials. This is at least an order of magnitude faster than monkeys that typically learn such a task after months of training with more than 1, 000 trials per day, e. g. [6]. The activity of a trained network is illustrated in Fig. 2C. The Q-unit for fixating at the center had strongest activity at fixation onset and throughout the fixation and memory delays, whereas the Qunit for the appropriate eye movement became more active after the go-signal. Interestingly, the activity of the Q-cells also depended on cue-location during the memory delay, as is observed, for example, in the frontal eye fields [18]. This activity derives from memory units in the association layer that maintain a trace of the cue as persistent elevation of their activity and are also tuned to the difference between pro- and antisaccade trials. To illustrate this, we defined selectivity indices (SIs) to characterize the tuning of memory units to the difference between pro- or antisaccade trials and to the difference in cue location. The sensitivity of units to differences in trial types, SItype was |0.5((RP L + RP R ) ? (RAL + RAR ))|, with R representing a units? activation level (at ?Go? time) in pro (P) and anti-saccade trials (A) with a left (L) or right (R) cue. A unit has an SI of 0 if it does not distinguish between pro- and antisaccade trials, and an SI of 1 if it is fully active for one trial type and inactive for the other. The sensitivity to cue location, SIcue , was defined |0.5((RP L + RAL ) ? (RP R + RAR ))|. We trained 100 networks and found that units tuned to cue-location also tended to be selective for trial-type (black data points in Fig. 2D; SI correlation 0.79, (N = 400, P < 10?6 )). To show that the association layer only learns to represent relevant features, we trained the same 100 networks using the same stimuli, but now only required pro5 G R R 0 0.5 0.1 F R 0.6 0 Model + 0.6 0 0.6 0 Time (s) 1 0 -1 E ? S1 S2 S3 Symbols presented S4 -1 -? 0.6 Average Weights 20 0.3 L subjective WOE 30 Data Prop. of Units G D Data 40 LogLR B C Response (sp/s) ?? Favouring green Shapes ?0.9 ?0.7 ?0.5 ?0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 Favouring red +? Assigned weights Activation Go Delay S4 S1 Fixation A 3 Model 0 -3 -1 0 0 1+? -? True symbol weights 1+? 0.4 0.2 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 Spearman Correlation Figure 3: A Probabilistic classification task (redrawn from [6]). B Model network C Population averages, conditional on LogLR-quintile (inset) for LIP neurons (redrawn from [6]) (top) and model memory units over 100, 000 trials after learning had converged (bottom). D Subjective weights inferred for a trained monkey (redrawn from [6]) (left) and average synaptic weights to an example memory unit (right) versus true symbol weights (A, right). E Histogram of weight correlations for 400 memory units from 100 trained networks. saccades, rendering the color of the fixation point irrelevant. Memory units in the 97 converged networks now became tuned to cue-location but not to fixation point color (Fig. 2D, red data points. SI Correlation 0.04, (N = 388, P > 0.48)), indicating that the association layer indeed only learns to represent relevant features. 3.2 Probabilistic Classification Neurons in area LIP also play a role in perceptual decision making [5]. We hypothesized that memory units could learn to integrate probabilistic evidence for a decision. Yang and Shadlen [6] investigated how monkeys learn to combine information about four briefly presented symbols, which provided probabilistic cues whether a red or green eye movement target was baited with reward (Fig. 3A). A previous model with only one layer of modifiable synapses could learn a simplified, linear version of this task [19]. We tested if AuGMEnT could train the network to adapt to the full complexity of the task that demands a non-linear combination of information about the four symbols with the position of the red and green eye-movement targets. Trials followed the same structure as described in section 3.1, but now four cues were subsequently added to the display. Cues were drawn with replacement from a set of ten (Fig. 3A, right), each with a different associated weight. The sum of these weights, W , determined the probability that rf in was assigned to the red target (R) as follows: P (R|W ) = 10W /(1 + 10W ). For the green target G, P (G|W ) = 1 ? P (R|W ). At fixation mark offset, the model had to make a saccade to the target with the highest reward probability. The sensory layer of the model (Fig. 3B) had four retinotopic fields with binary units for all possible symbols, a binary unit for the fixation mark and four binary units coding the locations of the colored targets on the virtual screen. Due to the +/- units, this made 45 ? 3 units in total. As in [6], we increased the difficulty of the task gradually (i. e. we used a shaping strategy) by increasing the set of input symbols (2, 4, . . . , 10) and sequence length (1?4) in eight steps. Training started with the ?trump? shapes which guarantee reward for the correct decision (Fig. 3A, right; see [6]) and then added the symbols with the next absolute highest weights. We determined that the task had been learned when the proportion of trials on which the correct decision was taken over the last n trials reached 0.85, where n was increased with the difficulty level l of the task. For the first 5 levels, n(l) = 500 + 500l and for l = 6, 7, 8 n was 10, 000; 10, 000 and 20, 000, respectively. Networks were trained for at most 500, 000 trials. The behavior of a trained network is shown in figure 3C (bottom). Memory units integrated information for one of the choices over the symbol sequence and maintained information about the value of this choice as persistent activity during the memory delay. Their activation was correlated to the log likelihood that the targets were baited, just like LIP neurons [6] (Fig. 3C). The graphs show average activations of populations of real and model neurons in the four cue presentation epochs. Each pos6 B 2 0 2 51 4+ 38 256 2+ 19 28 +1 96 4 +6 48 2 +3 24 6 +1 12 8 6+ Association layer units (reg. + mem.) 4 4 3+ 2 51 4+ 38 256 2+ 19 28 +1 96 4 +6 48 2 +3 24 6 +1 12 8 4 Association layer units (reg. + mem.) 6+ 0 3+ 2 51 4+ 38 256 2+ 19 28 +1 96 4 +6 48 2 +3 24 6 +1 0 12 Association layer units (reg. + mem.) 2 8 6+ 4 3+ 2 51 4+ 38 256 2+ 19 28 +1 96 4 +6 48 2 +3 24 6 +1 12 8 4 6+ 3+ 0 4 25 1 Convergence Rate Convergence Rate Median Convergence Speed 25 Median Convergence Speed A1 Association layer units (reg. + mem.) Figure 4: Association layer scaling behavior for A default learning parameters and, B optimized learning parameters. Error bars are 95% confidence intervals. Parameters used are indicated by shading (see inset) sible sub-sequence of cues was assigned to a log-likelihood ratio (logLR) quintile, which correlates with the probability that the neurons? preferred eye-movement is rewarded. Note that sub-sequences from the same trial might be assigned to different quintiles. We computed LogLR quintiles by enumerating all combinations of four symbols and then computing the probabilities of reward for saccades to red and green targets. Given these probabilities, we computed reward probability for all sub-sequences by marginalizing over the unknown symbols, i. e. to compute the probability that the red target was baited given only a first symbol si , P (R|si ), we summed the probabilities for full sequences starting with si and divided by the number of such full sequences. We then computed the logLR for the sub-sequences and divided those into quintiles. For model units we rearranged the quintiles so that they were aligned in the last epoch to compute the population average. Synaptic weights from input neurons to memory cells became strongly correlated to the true weights of the symbols (Fig. 3D, right; Spearman correlation, ? = 1, P < 10?6 ). Thus, the training of synaptic weights to memory neurons in parietal cortex can explain how the monkeys valuate the symbols [19]. We trained 100 networks on the same task and computed Spearman correlations for the memory unit weights with the true weights and found that in general they learn to represent the symbols (Fig. 3E). The learning scheme thus offers a biologically realistic explanation of how neurons in LIP learn to integrate relevant information in a probabilistic classification task. 3.3 Scaling behavior To show that the learning scheme scales well, we ran a series of simulations with increasing numbers of association units. We scaled the number of association units by powers of two, from 21 = 2 (yielding 6 regular units and 8 memory units) to 27 = 128 (yielding 384 regular and 512 memory units). For each scale, we trained 100 networks on the saccade/antisaccade task, as described in section 3.1. We first evaluated these scaled networks with the standard set of learning parameters and found that these yielded stable results within a wide range but that performance deteriorated for the largest networks (from 26 = 64; 192 regular units and 256 memory units) (Fig. 4A). In a second experiment (Fig. 4B), we also varied the learning rate (?) and trace decay (?) parameters. We jointly scaled these parameters by 21 , 14 and 18 and selected the parameter combination which resulted in the highest convergence rate and the fastest median convergence speed. It can be seen that the performance of the larger networks was at least as good as that of the default network, provided the learning parameters were scaled. Furthermore, we ran extensive grid-searches over the ?, ? parameter space using default networks (not shown) and found that the model robustly learns both tasks with a wide range of parameters. 4 Discussion We have shown that AuGMEnT can train networks to solve working memory tasks that require nonlinear stimulus-response mappings and the integration of sensory evidence in a biologically plausible way. All the information required for the synaptic updates is available locally, at the synapses. The network is trained by a form of SARSA(?) [10, 2], and synaptic updates minimize TD errors by stochastic gradient descent. Although there is an ongoing debate whether SARSA or Q-learning 7 [20] like algorithms are used by the brain [21, 22], we used SARSA because this has stronger convergence guarantees than Q-learning when used to train neural networks [23]. Although stability is considered a problem for neural networks implementing reinforcement learning methods [24], AuGMEnT robustly trained networks on our tasks for a wide range of model parameters. Technically, working memory tasks are Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), because current observations do not contain the information to make optimal decisions [25]. Although AuGMEnT is not a solution for all POMDPs, as these are in general intractable [25], its simple learning mechanism is well able to learn challenging working memory tasks. The problem of learning new working memory representations by reinforcement learning is not well-studied. Some early work used the biologically implausible backpropagation-through-time algorithm to learn memory representations [26, 27]. Most other work pre-wires some aspects of working memory and only has a single layer of plastic weights (e. g. [19]), so that the learning mechanism is not general. To our knowledge, the model by O?Reilly and Frank [7] is most closely related to AuGMEnT. This model is able to learn a variety of working memory tasks, but it requires a teaching signal that provides the correct actions on each time-step and the architecture and learning rules are elaborate. AuGMEnT only requires scalar rewards and the learning rules are simple and well-grounded in RL theory [2]. AuGMEnT explains how neurons become tuned to relevant sensory stimuli in sequential decision tasks that animals learn by trial and error. The scheme uses units with properties that resemble cortical and subcortical neurons: transient and sustained neurons in sensory cortices [28], action-value coding neurons in frontal cortex and basal ganglia [29, 30] and neurons which integrate input and therefore carry traces of previously presented stimuli in association cortex. The persistent activity of these memory cells could derive from intracellular processes, local circuit reverberations or recurrent activity in larger networks spanning cortex, thalamus and basal ganglia [31]. The learning scheme adopts previously proposed ideas that globally released neuromodulatory signals code deviations from reward expectancy and gate synaptic plasticity [8, 9, 14]. In addition to this neuromodulatory signal, plasticity in AuGMEnT is gated by an attentional feedback signal that tags synapses responsible for the chosen action. Such a feedback signal exists in the brain because neurons at the motor stage that code a selected action enhance the activity of upstream neurons that provided input for this action [32], a signal that explains a corresponding shift of visual attention [33]. AuGMEnT trains networks to direct feedback (i.e. selective attention) to features that are critical for the stimulus-response mapping and are associated with reward. Although the hypothesis that attentional feedback controls the formation of tags is new, there is ample evidence for the existence of synaptic tags [34, 12]. Recent studies have started to elucidate the identity of the tags [35, 36] and future work could investigate how they are influenced by attention. Interestingly, neuromodulatory signals influence synaptic plasticity even if released seconds or minutes later than the plasticity-inducing event [12, 35], which supports that they interact with a trace of the stimulus, i.e. some form of tag. Here we have shown how interactions between synaptic tags and neuromodulatory signals explain how neurons in association areas acquire working memory representations for apparently disparate tasks that rely on working memory or decision making. These tasks now fit in a single, unified reinforcement learning framework. References [1] Gnadt, J. and Andersen, R. A. Memory Related motor planning activity in posterior parietal cortex of macaque. 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Learning visual motion in recurrent neural networks Marius Pachitariu, Maneesh Sahani Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London, UK {marius, maneesh}@gatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract We present a dynamic nonlinear generative model for visual motion based on a latent representation of binary-gated Gaussian variables. Trained on sequences of images, the model learns to represent different movement directions in different variables. We use an online approximate inference scheme that can be mapped to the dynamics of networks of neurons. Probed with drifting grating stimuli and moving bars of light, neurons in the model show patterns of responses analogous to those of direction-selective simple cells in primary visual cortex. Most model neurons also show speed tuning and respond equally well to a range of motion directions and speeds aligned to the constraint line of their respective preferred speed. We show how these computations are enabled by a specific pattern of recurrent connections learned by the model. 1 Introduction Perhaps the most striking property of biological visual systems is their ability to efficiently cope with the high bandwidth data streams received from the eyes. Continuous sequences of images represent complex trajectories through the high-dimensional nonlinear space of two dimensional images. The survival of animal species depends on their ability to represent these trajectories efficiently and to distinguish visual motion on a fast time scale. Neurophysiological experiments have revealed complicated neural machinery dedicated to the computation of motion [1]. In primates, the classical picture of the visual system distinguishes between an object-recognition-focused ventral pathway and an equally large dorsal pathway for object localization and visual motion. In this paper we propose a model for the very first cortical computation in the dorsal pathway: that of direction-selective simple cells in primary visual cortex [2]. We continue a line of models which treats visual motion as a general sequence learning problem and proposes asymmetric Hebbian rules for learning such sequences [3, 4]. We reformulate these earlier models in a generative probabilistic framework which allows us to train them on sequences of natural images. For inference we use an online approximate filtering method which resembles the dynamics of recurrently-connected neural networks. Previous low-level generative models of image sequences have mostly treated time as a third dimension in a sparse coding problem [5]. These approaches have thus far been difficult to map to neural architecture as they have been implemented with noncausal inference algorithms. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal sensitivity of each learned variable is determined by a separate three-dimensional basis function, requiring many variables to encode all possible orientations, directions of motion and speeds. Cortical architecture points to a more distributed formation of motion representation, with temporal sensitivity determined by the interaction of neurons with different spatial receptive fields. Another major line of generative models of video analyzes the slowly changing features of visual input and proposes complex cells as such slow feature learners [6], [7]. However, these models are not expressive enough to encode visual motion and are more specifically designed to discover image dimensions invariant in time. 1 A recent hierarchical generative model for mid-level visual motion separates the phases and amplitudes of complex coefficients applied to complex spatial basis functions [8]. This separation makes it possible to build a second layer of variables that specifies a distribution on the phase coefficients alone. This second layer learns to pool together first layer neurons with similar preferred directions. The introduction of real and imaginary parts in the basis functions is inspired by older energy-based approaches where pairs of neurons with receptive fields in quadrature phase feed their outputs with different time delays to a higher-order neuron which thus acquires direction selectivity. The model of [8], and models based on motion energy in general, do not however reproduce direction-selective simple cells. In this paper we propose a network in which local motion is computed in a more distributed fashion than is postulated by feedforward implementations of energy models. 1.1 Recurrent Network Models for Neural Sequence Learning. Another view of the development of visual motion processing sees it as a special case of the general problem of sequence learning [4]. Many structures in the brain seem to show various forms of sequence learning, and recurrent networks of neurons can naturally produce learned sequences through their dynamics [9, 10]. Indeed, it has been suggested that the reproduction of remembered sequences within the hippocampus has an important navigational role. Similarly, motor systems must be able to generate sequences of control signals that drive appropriate muscle activity. Thus many neural sequence models are fundamentally generative. By contrast, it is not evident that V1 should need to reproduce the learnt sequences of retinal input that represent visual motion. Although generative modelling provides a powerful mathematical device for the construction of inferential sensory representations, the role of actual generation has been debated. Is there really a potential connection then, to the generative sequence reproduction models developed for other areas? One possible role for explicit sequence generation in a sensory system is for prediction. Predictive coding has indeed been proposed as a central mechanism to visual processing [11] and even as a more general theory of cortical responses [12]. More specifically as a visual motion learning mechanism, sequence learning forms the basis of an earlier simple toy but biophysically realistic model based on STDP at the lateral synapses of a recurrently connected network [4]. In another biophysically realistic model, recurrent connections are set by hand rather than learned but they produce direction selectivity and speed tuning in simulations of cat primary visual cortex [13]. Thus, the recurrent mechanisms of sequence learning may indeed be important. In the following section we define mathematically a probabilistic sequence modelling network which can learn patterns of visual motion in an unsupervised manner from 16 by 16 patches with 512 latent variables connected densely to each other in a nonlinear dynamical system. ?x R, b ht . . . zt?1 xt ht+1 ... zt W, ?y yt t (a) (b) Figure 1: a. Toy sequence learning model with biophysically realistic neurons from [4]. Neurons N1 and N2 have the same RF as indicated by the dotted line, but after STDP learning of the recurrent connections with other neurons in the chain, N1 and N2 learn to fire only for rightward and respectively leftward motion. b Graphical model representation of the bgG-RNN. The square box represents that the variable zt is not random, but is given by zt = xt ? ht . 2 2 Probabilistic Recurrent Neural Networks In this section we introduce the binary-gated Gaussian recurrent neural network as a generative model of sequences of images. The model belongs to the class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Inference methods in such models typically require expensive variational [14] or sampling based approximations [15], but we found that a low cost online filtering method works sufficiently well to learn an interesting model. We begin with a description of binary-gated Gaussian sparse coding for still images and then describe how to define the dependencies in time between variables. 2.1 Binary Gated Gaussian Sparse Coding (bgG-SC). Binary-gated Gaussian sparse coding ([16], also called spike-and-slab sparse coding [17]1 ) may be seen as a limit of sparse coding with a mixture of Gaussians priors [18] where one mixture component has zero variance. Mathematically, the data yt is obtained by multiplying together a matrix W of basis filters with a vector ht ?xt , where ? denotes the operation of Hadamard or elementwise product, xt ? RN is Gaussian and spherically distributed with standard deviation ?x and ht ? {0, 1}N is a vector of independent Bernoulli-distributed elements with success probabilities p. Finally, small amounts of isotropic Gaussian noise with standard deviation ?y are added to produce yt . For notational consistency with the proposed dynamic version of this model, the t superscript indexes time. The joint log-likelihood is LtSC = ? kyt ? W ? (ht ? xt )k2 /2?y2 ? kxt k2 /2?x2 + + N X  htj log pj + (1 ? htj ) log (1 ? pj ) + const, (1) j=1 where N is the number of basis filters in the model. By using appropriately small activation probabilities p, the effective prior on ht ? xt can be made arbitrarily sparse. Probabilistic inference in sparse coding is intractable but efficient variational approximation methods exist. We use a very fast approximation to MAP inference, the matching pursuit algorithm (MP) [19]. Instead of using MP to extract a fixed number of coefficients per patch as usual, we extract coefficients for as long as the joint log-likelihood increases. Patches with more complicated structure will naturally require more coefficients to code. Once values for xt and ht are filled in, the gradient of the joint log likelihood with respect to the parameters is easy to derive. Note that xtk for which htk = 0 can be integrated out in the likelihood, as they receive no contribution from the data term in (1). Due to the MAP approximation, only the W can be learned. Therefore, we set ?x2 , ?y2 to reasonable values, both on the order of the data variance. We also adapted pk during learning so that each filter was selected by the MP process a roughly equal number of times. This helped to stabilise learning, avoiding a tendency to very unequal convergence rates otherwise encountered. When applied to whitened small patches from images, the algorithm produced localized Gabor-like receptive fields as usual for sparse coding, with a range of frequencies, phases, widths and aspect ratios. The same model was shown in [16] to reproduce the diverse shapes of V1 receptive fields, unlike standard sparse coding [20]. We found that when we varied the average number of coefficients recruited per image, the receptive fields of the learned filters varied in size. For example with only one coefficient per image, a large number of filters represented edges extending from one end of the patch to the other. With a large number of coefficients, the filters concentrated their mass around just a few pixels. With even more coefficients, the learned filters gradually became Fourier-like. During learning, we gradually adapted the average activation of each variable htk by changing the prior activation probabilities pk . For 16x16 patches in a twice overcomplete SC model (number of filters = twice the number of pixels), we found that learning with 10-50 coefficients on average prevented the filters from becoming too much or too little localized in space. 1 Although less evocative, we prefer the term ?binary-gated Gaussian? to ?spike-and-slab? partly because our slab is really more of a hump, and partly because the spike refers to a feature seen only in the density of the product hi xi , rather than in either the values or distributions of the component variables. 3 2.2 Binary-Gated Gaussian Recurrent Neural Network (bgG-RNN). To obtain a dynamic hidden model for sequences of images {yt } we specify the following conditional probabilities between hidden chains of variables ht , xt :    P xt+1 , ht+1 |xt , ht = P xt+1 P ht+1 |ht ? xt   P xt+1 = N 0, ?x2 I    P ht+1 |ht ? xt = ? R ? ht ? xt + b , (2) where R is a matrix of recurrent connections, b is a vector of biases and ? is the standard sigmoid function ?(a) = 1/(1 + exp(?a)). Note how the xt are always drawn independently while the conditional probability for ht+1 depends only on ht ? xt . We arrived at these designs based on a few observations. First, similar to inference in bgG-RNN, the conditional dependence on ht ? xt , allows us to integrate out variables xt , xt+1 for which the respective gates in ht , ht+1 are 0. Second, we observed that adding Gaussian linear dependencies between xt+1 andxt ? ht did not modify qual- itatively the results reported here. However, dropping P ht+1 |ht ? xt in favor of P xt+1 |ht ? xt resulted in a model which could no longer learn a direction-selective representation. For simplicity we choseX the minimal model specified by (2). The full log likelihood for the bgG-RNN is LtbgG-RNN where LbgG-RNN = t LtbgG-RNN = const ? kyt ? W(xt ? ht )k2 /2?y2 ? kxt k2 /2?x2 + N X   htj log ? R ht?1 ? xt?1 + b j j=1 N X   + (1 ? htj ) log (1 ? ? R ht?1 ? xt?1 + b j ), (3) j=1 where x0 = 0 and h0 = 0 are both defined to be vectors of zeros. 2.3 Inference and learning of bgG-RNN. ?t for all t in such a way as to minimize the objective The goal of inference is to set the values of ?xt , h ?t for t = 1 to T , we propose to obtain ?xT +1 , h ?T +1 set by (3). Assuming we have already set ?xt , h ?T . This scheme might be called greedy filtering. In greedy filtering, inference exclusively from ? xT , h is causal and Markov with respect to time. At step T + 1 we only need to solve a simple SC problem +1 given by the slice LTbgG-RNN of the likelihood (3), where xT , hT have been replaced with the estimates ?T . The greedy filtering algorithm proposed here scales linearly with the number of time steps ? xT , h considered and is well suited for online inference. The algorithm might not produce very accurate estimates of the global MAP settings of the hidden variables, but we found it was sufficient for learning a complex bgG-RNN model. In addition, its simplicity coupled with the fast MP algorithm in each LtbgG-RNN slice, resulted in very fast inference and consequently fast learning. We usually learned models in under one hour on a quad core workstation. Due to our approximate inference scheme, some parameters in the model had to be set manually. These are ?x2 and ?y2 , which control the relative strengths in the likelihood of three terms: the data likelihood, the smallness prior on the Gaussian variables and the interaction between sets of xt , ht consecutive in time. In our experiments we set ?y2 equal to the data variance and ?x2 = 2?y2 . We found that such large levels of expected observation noise were necessary to drive robust learning in R. For learning we initialized parameters randomly to small values and first learned W exclusively. Once the filters converge, we turn on learning for R. W does not change very much beyond this point. We found learning of R was sensitive to learning rate. We set the learning rate to 0.05 per batch, used a momentum term of 0.75 and batches of 30 sets of 100 frame sequences. We stabilized the mean activation probability of each neuron individually by actively and quickly tuning the biases 4 b during learning. We whitened images with a center-surround filter and standardized the whitened pixel values. Gradients required for learning R show similarities to the STDP learning rule used in [3] and [4]. ?LtbgG-RNN ?Rjk   t    t?1 t t = ht?1 x ? h . ? ? R h ? x + b j k k j (4) We will assume for neural interpretation that the positive and negative values of xt ? ht are encoded by different neurons. If for a given neuron xt?1 is always positive, then the gradient (4) is only k t strictly positive when ht?1 = 1 and h = 1 and strictly negative when ht?1 = 1 and htj = 0. In j k k other words, the connection Rjk is strengthened when neuron k appears to cause neuron j to activate and inhibited if neuron k fails to activate neuron j. A similar effect can be observed for the negative part of xt?1 k . This kind of Hebbian rule is widespread in cortex for long term learning and is used in previous computational models of neural sequence learning that partly motivated our work [4]. 3 Results For data, we selected about 100 short 100 frame long clips from a high resolution BBC wild life documentary. Clips were chosen only if they seemed on visual inspection to have sufficient motion energy over the 100 frames. The clips chosen ended up being mostly panning shots and close-ups of animals in their natural habitats (the closer the camera is to a moving object, the faster it appears to move). The results presented below measure the ability of the model to produce responses similar to those of neurons recorded in primate experiments. The stimuli used in these experiments are typically of two kinds: drifting gratings presented inside circular or square apertures or translating bars of various lengths. These two kinds of stimuli produce very clear motion signals, unlike motion produced by natural movies. In fact, most patches we used in training contained a wide range of spatial orientations, most of which were not orthogonal to the direction of local translation. After comparing model responses to neural data, we finish with an analysis of the network connectivity pattern that underlies the responses of model neurons. 3.1 Measuring responses in the model. We needed to deal with the potential negativity of the variables in the model, since neural responses are always positive quantities. We decided to separate the positive and negative parts of the Gaussian variables into two distinct sets of responses. This interpretation is relatively common for sparse coding models and we also found that in many units direction selectivity was enhanced when the positive and negative parts of xt were separated (as opposed to taking ht as the neural response). The enhancement was supported by a particular pattern of network connectivity which we describe in a later subsection. Since our inference procedure is deterministic it will produce the exact same response to the same stimulus every time. We added Gaussian noise to the spatially whitened test image sequences, partly to capture the noisy environments in cortex and partly to show robustness of direction selectivity to noise. The amount of noise added was about half the expected variance of the stimulus. 3.2 Direction selectivity and speed tuning. Direction selectivity is measured with the following index: DI = 1 ? Ropp /Rmax . Here Rmax represents the response of a neuron in its preferred direction, while Ropp is the response in the direction opposite to that preferred. This selectivity index is commonly used to characterize neural data. To define a neuron?s preferred direction, we inferred latent coefficients over many repetitions of square gratings drifting in 24 directions, at speeds ranging from 0 to 3 pixels/frame in 0.25 steps. The periodicity of the stimulus was twice the patch size, so that motion locally appeared as an advancing long edge. The neuron?s preferred direction was defined as the direction in which it responded most strongly, averaged over all speeds. Once a preferred direction was established, we defined the neuron?s preferred speed, as the speed at which it responded most strongly in its preferred 5 direction. Finally, at this preferred speed and direction, we calculated the DI of the neuron. Similar results were obtained if we averaged over all speed conditions. non-preferred 200 Number of units 100 0 0 0.5 1 Direction Index 150 Response (a.u.) preferred 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 Preferred speed (pix/frame) 0 (a) 3 Speed (pix/frame) (b) (c) Figure 2: a. Speed tuning of 16 randomly chosen neurons. Note that some neurons only respond weakly without motion, some are inhibited in the non-preferred direction compared to static responses and most have a clear peak in the preferred direction at specific speeds. b. top: Histogram of direction selectivity indices. bottom: Histogram of preferred speeds. c. For each of the 10 strongest excitatory connections per neuron we plot a dot indicating the orientation selectivity of pre and post-synaptic units. Note that most of the points are within ?/4 from the diagonal, an area marked by the black lines. Notice also the relatively increased frequency of horizontal and vertical edges. We found that most neurons in the model had sharp tuning curves and direction-selective responses. We cross validated the value of the direction index with a new set of responses (fixing the preferred direction) to obtain an averaged DI of 0.65, with many neurons having a DI close to 1 (see figure 2(a)). This distribution is similar to those shown in [21] for real V1 neurons. 714 of 1024 neurons were classified as direction-selective, on the basis of having DI > 0.5. Distributions of direction indices and optimal speeds are shown in figure 2(a). A neuron?s preferred direction was always close to orthogonal to the axis of its Gabor receptive field, except for a few degenerate cases around the edges of the patch. We defined the population tuning curve as the average of the tuning curves of individual neurons, each aligned by their preferred direction of motion. The DI of the population was 0.66. Neurons were also speed tuned, in that responses could vary greatly and systematically as a function of speed and DI was non-constant as a function of speed (see figure 2(b)). Usually at low and high speeds the DI was 0, but in between a variety of responses were observed. Speed tuning is also present in recorded V1 neurons [22], and could form the basis for global motion computation based on the intersection of constraints method [23]. 3.3 Vector velocity tuning. To get a more detailed description of single-neuron tuning, we investigated responses to different stimulus velocities. Since drifting gratings only contain motion orthogonal to their orientation, we switched to small (1.25pix x 2pix) drifting Gabors for these experiments. We tested the network?s behavior with a full set of 24 Gabor orientations, drifting in a full set of 24 directions with speeds ranging from 0.25 pixels/frame to 3 pixels/frame, for a total of 6912 = 24 x 24 x 12 conditions with hundreds of repetitions of each condition. For each neuron we isolated its responses to drifting Gabors of the same orientation travelling at the 12 different speeds in the 24 different directions. We present these for several neurons in polar plots in figure 3(b). Note responses tend to be high to vector velocities lying on a particular line. 3.4 Connectomics in silico We had anticipated that the network would learn direction selectivity via specific patterns of recurrent connection, in a fashion similar to the toy model studied in [4]. We now show that the pattern of connectivity indeed supports this computation. 6 The most obvious connectivity pattern, clearly visible for single neurons in figure 3(a), shows that neurons in the model excite other neurons in their preferred direction and inhibit neurons in the opposite direction. This asymmetric wiring naturally supports direction selectivity. Asymmetry is not sufficient for direction selectivity to emerge. In addition, strong excitatory projections have to connect together neurons with similar preferred orientations and similar preferred directions. Only then will direction information propagate in the network in the identities of the active variables (and the signs of their respective coefficients xt ). We considered for each neuron its 10 strongest excitatory outputs and calculated the expected deviation between the orientation of these outputs and the orientation of the root neuron. The average deviation was 23? , half the expected deviation if connections were random. Figure 2(c) shows a raster plot of the pairs of orientations. The same pattern held when we considered the strongest excitatory inputs to a given neuron with an expected deviation of orientations of 24? . We could not directly measure if neurons connected together according to direction selectivity because of the sign ambiguity of xt variables. One can visually assess in figure 3(a) that neurons connected asymmetrically with respect to their RF axis, but did they also respond to motion primarily in that direction? As can be seen in figure 3(b), which shows the same neurons as figure 3(a), they did indeed. Direction tuning is a measure of the incoming connections to the neuron, while figure 3(a) shows the outgoing connections. We can qualitatively assess recurrence primarily connected together neurons with similar direction preferences. (a) (b) Figure 3: a. Each plot is based on the outgoing connections of a random set of direction-selective neurons. The centers of the Gabor fits to the neurons? receptive fields are shown as circles on a square representing the 16 by 16 image patch. The root neurons are shown as filled black circles. Filled red/blue circles show neurons to which the root neurons have strong positive/negative connections, with a cutoff at one fourth of the maximal absolute connection. The width of the connecting lines and the area of the filled circles are proportional to the strength of the connection. A dynamic version of this plot during learning is shown as a movie in the supplementary material. b. The polar plots show the responses of neurons presented in a to small, drifting Gabors that match their respective orientations. Neurons are aligned in exactly the same manner on the 4 by 4 grid. Every small disc in every polar plot represents one combination of speed and direction and the color of the disc represents the magnitude of the response, with intense red being maximal and dark blue minimal. The vector from the center of the polar plot to the center of each disc is proportional to the vector displacement of each consecutive frame in the stimulus sequence. Increasing disc sizes at faster speeds are used for display purposes. The very last polar plot shows the average of the responses of the entire population, when all neurons are aligned by their preferred direction. We also observed that neurons mostly projected strong excitatory outputs to other neurons that were aligned parallel to the root neuron?s main axis (visible in figures 3(a)). We think this is related to the fact that locally all edges appear to translate parallel to themselves. A neuron X with a preferred direction v and preferred speed s has a so-called constraint line (CL), parallel to the Gabor?s axis. 7 When the neuron is activated by an edge E, the constraint line is formed by all possible future locations of edge E that are consistent with global motion in the direction v with speed s. Due to the presence of long contours in natural scenes, the activation of X can predict at the next time step the activations of other neurons with RFs aligned on the CL. Our likelihood function encourages the model to learn to make such predictions as well as it can. To quantify the degree to which connections were made along a CL, for each neuron we fit a 2D Gaussian to the distribution of RF positions of the 20 most strongly connected neurons (the filled red circles in figure 3(a)), each further weighted by its strength. The major axis of the Gaussians represent the constraint lines of the root neuron and are in 862 out of 1024 neurons less than 15? away from perfectly parallel to the root neurons? axis. The distance of each neuron to their constraint line was on average 1.68 pixels. Yet perhaps the strongest manifestation of the CL tuning property of neurons in the model can be seen in their responses to small stimuli drifting with different vector velocities. Many of the neurons in figure 3(b) respond best when the velocity vector ends on the constraint line and a similar trend holds for the aligned population average. It is already known from experiments of axon mappings simultaneous with dye-sensitive imaging that neurons in V1 are more likely to connect with neurons of similar orientations situated as far away as 4 mm / 4-8 minicolumns away [24]. The model presented here makes three further predictions: that neurons connect more strongly to neurons in their preferred direction, that connected neurons lie on the constraint line and that they have similar preferred directions to the root neuron. 4 Discussion We have shown that a network of recurrently-connected neurons can learn to discriminate motion direction at the level of individual neurons. Online greedy filtering in the model is a sufficient approximate-inference method to produce direction-selective responses. Fast, causal and online inference is a necessary requirement for practical vision systems (such as the brain) but previous visual-motion models did not provide such an implementation of their inference algorithms. Another shortcoming of these previous models is that they obtain direction selectivity by having variables with different RFs at different time lags, effectively treating time as a third spatial dimension. A dynamic generative model may be more suited for online inference with methods such as particle filtering, assumed density filtering, or the far cheaper method employed here of greedy filtering. The model neurons can be interpreted as predicting the motion of the stimulus. The lateral inputs they receive are however not sufficient in themselves to produce a response, the prediction also has to be consistent with the bottom-up input. When the two sources of information disagree, the network compromises but not always in favor of the bottom-up input, as this source of information might be noisy. This is reflected by the decrease in reconstruction accuracy from 80% to 60 % after learning the recurrent connections. It is tempting to think of V1 direction selective neurons as not only edge detectors and contour predictors (through the nonclassical RF) but also predictors of future edge locations, through their specific patterns of connectivity. The source of direction selectivity in cortex is still an unresolved question, but note that in the retina of non-primate mammals it is known with some certainty that recurrent inhibition in the non preferred direction is largely responsible for the direction selectivity of retinal ganglion cells [25]. It is also known that unlike orientation and ocular dominance, direction selectivity requires visual experience to develop [26], perhaps because direction selectivity depends on a specific pattern of lateral connectivity unlike the largely feedforward orientation and binocular tuning. Another experiment showed that after many exposures to the same moving stimulus, the sequence of spikes triggered in different neurons along the motion trajectory was also triggered in the complete absence of motion, again indicating that motion signals in cortex may be generated internally from lateral connections [27]. Thus, we see a number of reasons to propose that direction selectivity in the cortex may indeed develop and be computed through a mechanism analagous to the one we have developed here. If so, then experimental tests of the various predictions developed above should prove to be revealing. 8 References [1] A Mikami, WT Newsome, and RH Wurtz. Motion selectivity in macaque visual cortex. II. Spatiotemporal range of directional interactions in MT and V1. Journal of Neurophysiology, 55(6):1328?1339, 1986. [2] MS Livingstone. Mechanisms of direction selectivity in macaque V1. Neuron, 20:509?526, 1998. [3] LF Abbott and KI Blum. Functional significance of long-term potentiation for sequence learning and prediction. Cerebral Cortex, 6:406?416, 1996. [4] RPN Rao and TJ Sejnowski. Predictive sequence learning in recurrent neocortical circuits. Advances in Neural Information Processing, 12:164?170, 2000. [5] B Olshausen. Learning sparse, overcomplete representations of time-varying natural images. IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, 2003. [6] P Berkes, RE Turner, and M Sahani. A structured model of video produces primary visual cortical organisation. PLoS Computational Biology, 5, 2009. [7] L Wiskott and TJ Sejnowski. Slow feature analysis: Unsupervised learning of invariances. Neural Computation, 14(4):715?770, 2002. [8] C Cadieu and B Olshausen. Learning transformational invariants from natural movies. Advances in Neural Information Processing, 21:209?216, 2009. [9] D Barber. Learning in spiking neural assemblies. Advances in Neural Information Processing, 15, 2002. [10] J Brea, W Senn, and JP Pfister. Sequence learning with hidden units in spiking neural networks. Advances in Neural Information Processing, 24, 2011. [11] RP Rao and Ballard DH. Predictive coding in the visual cortex: a functional interpretation of some extra-classical receptive-field effects. Nature Neuroscience, 2(1):79?87, 1999. [12] K Friston. A theory of cortical responses. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 360(1456):815?836, 1999. [13] RJ Douglas, C Koch, M Mahowald, KA Martin, and HH Suarez. Recurrent excitation in neocortical circuits. Science, 269(5226):981?985, 1995. [14] TP Minka. Expectation propagation for approximate Bayesian inference. UAI?01 Proceedings of the Seventeenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 362?369, 2001. [15] A Doucet, N Freitas, K Murphy, and S Russell. Rao-blackwellised particle filtering for dynamic Bayesian networks. UAI?00 Proceedings of the Sixteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 176?183, 2000. [16] M Rehn and FT Sommer. A network that uses few active neurones to code visual input predicts the diverse shapes of cortical receptive fields. Journal of Computational Neuroscience, 22:135?146, 2007. [17] IJ Goodfellow, A Courville, and Y Bengio. Spike-and-slab sparse coding for unsupervised feature discovery. arXiv:1201.3382v2, 2012. [18] BA Olshausen and KJ Millman. Learning sparse codes with a mixture-of-Gaussians prior. Advances in Neural Information Processing, 12, 2000. [19] SG Mallat and Z Zhang. Matching pursuits with time-frequency dictionaries. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 41(12):3397?3415, 1993. [20] BA Olshausen and DJ Field. Emergence of simple-cell receptive field properties by learning a sparse code for natural images. Nature, 381:607?609, 1996. [21] MR Peterson, B Li, and RD Freeman. The derivation of direction selectivity in the striate cortex. Journal of Neuroscience, 24:35833591, 2004. [22] GA Orban, H Kennedy, and J Bullier. Velocity sensitivity and direction selectivity of neurons in areas V1 and V2 of the monkey: influence of eccentricity. Journal of Neurophysiology, 56(2):462?480, 1986. [23] EP Simoncelli and DJ Heeger. A model of neuronal responses in visual area MT. Vision Research, 38(5):743?761, 1998. [24] WH Bosking, Y Zhang, B Schofield, and D FitzPatrick. Orientation selectivity and the arrangement of horizontal connections in tree shrew striate cortex. Journal of Neuroscience, 17(6):2112?2127, 1997. [25] SI Fried, TA Munch, and FS Werblin. Directional selectivity is formed at multiple levels by laterally offset inhibition in the rabbit retina. Neuron, 46(1):117?127, 2005. [26] Y Li, D FitzPatrick, and LE White. The development of direction selectivity in ferret visual cortex requires early visual experience. Nature Neuroscience, 9(5):676?681, 2006. [27] S Xu, W Jiang, M Poo, and Y Dan. Activity recall in a visual cortical ensemble. Nature Neuroscience, 15:449?455, 2012. 9
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Weighted Likelihood Policy Search with Model Selection Tsuyoshi Ueno ? Japan Science and Technology Agency [email protected] Takashi Washio Osaka University [email protected] Kohei Hayashi University of Tokyo [email protected] Yoshinobu Kawahara Osaka University [email protected] Abstract Reinforcement learning (RL) methods based on direct policy search (DPS) have been actively discussed to achieve an efficient approach to complicated Markov decision processes (MDPs). Although they have brought much progress in practical applications of RL, there still remains an unsolved problem in DPS related to model selection for the policy. In this paper, we propose a novel DPS method, weighted likelihood policy search (WLPS), where a policy is efficiently learned through the weighted likelihood estimation. WLPS naturally connects DPS to the statistical inference problem and thus various sophisticated techniques in statistics can be applied to DPS problems directly. Hence, by following the idea of the information criterion, we develop a new measurement for model comparison in DPS based on the weighted log-likelihood. 1 Introduction In the last decade, several direct policy search (DPS) methods have been developed in the field of reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] and have been successfully applied to practical decision making applications [5, 7, 9]. Unlike classical approaches [10], DPS characterizes a policy as a parametric model and explores parameters such that the expected reward is maximized in a given model space. Hence, if one employs a model with a reasonable number of DoF (degrees of freedom), DPS could find a reasonable policy efficiently even when the target decision making task has a huge number of DoF. Therefore, the development of an efficient model selection methodology for the policy is crucial in RL research. In this paper, we propose weighted likelihood policy search (WLPS): an efficient iterative policy search algorithm that allows us to select an appropriate model automatically from a set of candidate models. To this end, we first introduce a log-likelihood function weighted by the discounted sum of future rewards as the cost function for DPS. In WLPS, the policy parameters are updated by iteratively maximizing the weighted log-likelihood for the obtained sample sequence. A key property of WLPS is that the maximization of weighted log-likelihood corresponds to that of the lower bound of the expected reward and thus, WLPS is guaranteed to increase the expected reward monotonically at each iteration. This can be shown to converge to the same solution as the expectation-maximization policy search (EMPS) [1, 4, 9]. In this way, our framework gives a natural connection between DPS and the statistical inference problem for maximum likelihood estimation. One benefit of this approach is that we can directly apply the information criterion scheme [11, 12], which is a familiar theory in statistics, to the weighted log-likelihood. This enables us to construct a model selection strategy for the policy by comparing the information criterion based on the weighted log-likelihood. The contribution of this paper is summarized as follows: ? https://sites.google.com/site/tsuyoshiueno/ 1 1. We prove that each update to the policy parameters resulting from the maximization of the weighted log-likelihood has consistency and asymptotic normality, which have been not elucidated yet in DPS, and converges to the same solution as EMPS. 2. We introduce prior distribution on the policy parameter, and analyze the asymptotic behavior of the marginal weighted likelihood given by marginalizing out the policy parameter. We then propose a measure of the goodness of the policy model based on the posterior probability of the model in a similar way as Bayesian information criterion [12]. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. We first give a formulation of the DPS problem in RL, and a short overview of EMPS (Section 2). Next, we present our new DPS framework, WLPS, and investigate the theoretical aspects thereof (Section 3). In addition, we construct the model selection strategy for the policy (Section 4). Finally, we present a statistical interpretation of WLPS and discuss future directions of study in this regard (Section 5). Related Works Several approaches have been proposed for the model selection problem in the estimation of a state-action value function [13, 14]. [14] derived the PAC-Bayesian bounds for estimating state-action value functions. [13] developed a complexity regularization based model selection algorithm from the viewpoint of the minimization of the Bellman error, and investigated its theoretical aspects. Although these studies allow us to select a good model for a state-value function with theoretical supports, they cannot be applied to model selection for DPS directly. [15] developed a model selection strategy for DPS by reusing the past observed sample sequences through the importance weighted cross-validation (IWCV). However, IWCV requires heavy computational costs and includes computational instability when estimating the importance sampling weights. Recently, there are a number of studies that reformulate stochastic optimal control and RL as a minimization problem of Kullback-Leiblar (KL) divergence [16, 17, 18]. Our approach is closely related to these works; in fact, WLPS can also be interpreted as the minimization problem of the reverse form of KL divergence compared with that used in [16, 17, 18]. 2 Preliminary: EMPS We consider discrete-time infinite horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), defined as the quadruple (X , U, p, r): X ? Rdx is a state space; U ? Rdu is an action space; p(x? |x, u) is a stationary transition distribution to the next state x? when taking action u at state x; and r : X ? U 7? R+ is a positive reward received with the state transition. Let ?? (u|x) := p(u|x, ?) be the stochastic parametrized policy followed by the agent, where an m-dimensional vector ? ? ?, ? ? Rm means an adjustable parameter. Given initial state x1 and parameter vector ?, the joint distribution of the sample sequence, {x2:n , u1:n }, of the MDP is described as n ? p? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) = ?? (u1 |x1 ) p(xi |xi?1 , ui?1 )?? (ui |xi ). (1) i=2 We further impose the following assumptions on MDPs. Assumption 1. For any ? ? ?, the MDP given by Eq. (1), is aperiodic and Harris recurrent. Hence, MDP (1) is ergodic and has a unique invariant stationary distribution ?? (x), for any ? ? ? [19]. Assumption 2. For any x ? X and u ? U, reward r(x, u) is uniformly bounded. Assumption 3. Policy ?? (u|x) is thrice continuously differentiable with respect to parameter ?. The general goal of DPS is to find an optimal policy parameter ?? ? ? that maximizes the expected reward defined by ?? ?(?) := lim p? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) {Rn } dx2:n du1:n , (2) n?? ?n where Rn := Rn (x1:n , u1:n ) = (1/n) i=1 r(xi , ui ). In general, the direct maximization of objective function (2) forces us to solve a non-convex optimization problem with a high non-linearity. Thus, instead of maximizing Eq. (2), many of the DPS methods maximize the lower bound on Eq. (2), which may be much more tractable than the original objective function. Lemma 1 shows that there is a tight lower bound on objective function (2). Lemma 1. [1, 4, 9] The following inequality holds for any distribution q(x2:n , u1:n |x1 ): { } ?? p? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 )Rn ln ?n (?) ? Fn (q, ?) := q(x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) ln dx2:n du1:n , ?n q(x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) 2 (3) ?? where ?n (?) = p(x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) {Rn } dx2:n du1:n . The equality holds if q(x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) is a maximizer of Fn (q, ?) for some ?, i.e., q ? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) = argmaxq Fn (q, ?), which is satisfied when q ? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) ? p? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ){Rn }. The proof is given in Section 1 in the supporting material. Lemma 1 leads to an effective iterative algorithm, the so-called EMPS, which breaks down the potentially difficult maximization problem for the expected reward into two stages: 1) evaluation of the path distribution q??? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) ? p?? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ){Rn } at the current policy parameter ?? , and 2) maximization of Fn (q??? , ?) with respect to parameter ?. This EMPS cycle is guaranteed to increase the value of the expected reward unless the parameters already correspond to a local maximum [1, 4, 9]. Taking the partial derivative of the policy with respect to parameter ?, a new parameter vector ?? that maximizes Fn (q??? , ?) is found by solving the following equation: ( n ) ?? ? p?? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) ???(xi , ui ) Rn dx2:n du1:n = 0, (4) i=1 where ? : X ? U ? ? denotes a partial derivative of the logarithm of the policy with respect to parameter ?, i.e., ?? (x, u) := (?)/(??) ln ?? (u|x). Note that if the state transition distribution p(x? |x, u) is known, we can easily derive parameter ?? analytically or numerically. However, p(x? |x, u) is generally unknown, and it is a non-trivial problem to identify this distribution in large-scale applications. Thus, it is desirable to find parameter ?? in model-free ways, i.e., parameter is estimated from the sample sequences alone, instead of using p(x? |x, u). Although many variants of model-free EMPS algorithms [4, 6, 9, 15] have hitherto been developed, their fundamental theoretical properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality at each iteration have not yet been elucidated. Moreover, it is not even obvious whether they have such desirable statistical properties. 3 Proposed framework: WLPS In this section, we newly introduce a weighted likelihood as the objective function for DPS (Definition 1), and derive the WLPS algorithm, executed by iterating two steps: evaluation and maximization of the weighted log-likelihood function (Algorithm 1). Then, in Section 3.2, we show that WLPS is guaranteed to increase the expected reward at each iteration, and to converge to the same solution as EMPS (Theorem 1). 3.1 Overview of WLPS In this study, we consider the following weighted likelihood function. Definition 1. Suppose that given initial state x1 , a random sequence {x2:n , u1:n } is generated from model p?? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) of the MDP. Then, we define a weighted likelihood function ? p??? ,? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) and a weighted log-likelihood function L?n (?), respectively, as n ? ? ? p??? ,? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) := ?? (u1 |x1 )Q1 ?? (ui |xi )Qi p(xi |xi?1 , ui?1 ) (5) i=2 ? L?n (?) := ln p??? ,? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) := n ? Q?i ln ?? (ui |xi ) + i=1 n ? i=2 where Q?i is the discounted sum of the future rewards given by Q?i := is a discounted factor such that ? ? [0, 1). ln p(xi |xi?1 , ui?1 ), ?n j=i (6) ? j?i r(xj , uj ), and ? Now, let us consider the maximization of weighted log-likelihood function (6). Taking the partial derivative of weighted log-likelihood (6) with respect to parameter ?, we can obtain the maximum ? 1:n , u1:n ) as a solution of the following estimation weighted log-likelihood estimator ??n := ?(x equation: ? G?n (??n ) := n ? i=1 ???n (xi , ui )Q?i = n ? n ? i=1 j=i 3 ? j?i ???n (xi , ui )r(xj , uj ) = 0. (7) Note that when policy ?? is modeled by an exponential family, estimating equation (7) can easily be solved analytically or numerically using convex optimization techniques. In WLPS, the update of the policy parameter is performed by evaluating estimating equation (7) and finding estimator ??n iteratively from this equation. Algorithm 1 gives an outline of the WLPS procedure. Algorithm 1 (WLPS). 1. Generate a sample sequence {x1:n , u1:n } by employing the current policy parameter ?, and evaluate estimating equation (7). 2. Find a new estimator by solving estimating equation (7) and check for convergence. If convergence is not satisfied, return to step 1. It should be noted that WLPS guarantees to monotonically increase the expected reward ?(?), and to converge asymptotically under certain conditions to the same solution as EMPS, given by Eq. (4). In the next subsection, we discuss the reason why WLPS satisfies such desirable statistical properties. 3.2 Convergence of WLPS To begin with, we show consistency and asymptotic normality of estimator ??n given by Eq. (7) when ? is any constant between 0 and 1. To this end, we first introduce the notion of uniform mixing, which plays an important role when discussing statistical properties in stochastic processes [19]. The definition of uniform mixing is given below. Definition 2. Let {Yi : i = {? ? ? , ?1, 0, 1, ? ? ? }} be a strictly stationary process on a probabilistic space (?, F, P ), and Fkm be the ?-algebra generated by {Yk , ? ? ? , Ym }. Then, process {Yi } is said to be uniform mixing (?-mixing) if ?(s) ? 0 as s ? ?, where ?(s) := sup k ? A?F?? ,B?Fk+s |P (B|A) ? P (B)| = 0, P (A) ?= 0. Function ?(s) is called the mixing coefficient, and if the mixing coefficient converges to zero exponentially fast, i.e., there exist constants D > 0 and ? ? [0, 1) such that ?(s) < D?s , then the stochastic process is called geometrically uniform mixing. Note that if a stochastic process is a strictly stationary finite-state Markov process and ergodic, the process satisfies the geometrically uniform mixing conditions [19]. Now, we impose certain conditions for proving the consistency and asymptotic normality of estimator ??n , summarized as follows. Assumption 4. For any ? ? ?, MDP p? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) is geometrically uniform mixing. Assumption 5. For any x ? X , u ? U, and ? ? ?, function ?? (x, u) is uniformly bounded. Assumption 6. For any ? ? ?, there exists a parameter value ?? ? ? such that ? ? ? ? E?x1? ??? ????(x1 , u1 ) ? j?1 r(xj , uj )? = 0, (8) j=1 where E?x1? ??? [?] denotes the expectation over {x2:? , u1:? } with respect to distribution ?n lim ?? (x1 )?? (u1 |x1 ) i=2 p(xi |xi , ui )?? (ui |xi ). n?? Assumption 7. For any ? ? ? and ? > 0, [ ] ? ? ?? j?1 ? r(xj , uj ) > 0. sup Ex1 ??? ??? (x1 , u1 ) ? ? ? ? :|? ??|>? j=1 [ ] ? = E?x? ?? K??(x1 , u1 ) ?? ? j?1 r(xj , uj ) is Assumption 8. For any ? ? ?, matrix A := A(?) 1 1 j=1 invertible, where K? (x, u) := ?? ?? (x, u) = ? 2 /(????? ) ln ?? (u|x). Under the conditions given in Assumptions 1-7, estimator ??n converges to ?? in probability, as shown in the following lemma. Lemma 2. Suppose that given initial state x1 , a random sequence {x2:n , u1:n } is generated from model {p? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 )|?} of the MDP. If Assumptions 1-7 are satisfied, then estimator ??n given by estimating equation (7) shows consistency, i.e., estimator ??n converges to parameter ?? in probability. 4 The proof is given in Section 2 in the supporting material. Note that if the policy is characterized as an exponential family, we can replace Assumption 7 with Assumption 8 to prove the result in Lemma 3. Next, we show the asymptotic convergence rate of the estimator given a consistent estimator. Lemma 3 shows that the estimator converges at the rate Op (n?1/2 ). Lemma 3. Suppose that given initial state x1 , a random sequence {x2:n , u1:n } is generated from model p?? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ), and Assumptions 1-6 and 8 are satisfied. If estimator ??n , given by estimating equation (7) converges to ?? in probability, then we have n n ? ? ? ? = ? ?1 A?1 n(??n ? ?) ? j?i ???(xi , ui )r(xj , uj ) + op (1). (9) n i=1 j=i Furthermore, the right hand side of Eq. (9) converges to bution whose mean and covariance? are, respectively, zero ? ? ? + ? + ?? ?j (?) ? ?. where ? := ?(?) = ?(?) ? ( ?) i i=2 j=2 ? ? Ex1? ???? [(? ? j=1 ? j?1 r(xj , uj ) ) (? ? j ? =1+i ?j ? ?1 a Gaussian distriand A?1 ?(A?1 )? , ? Here, ?i (?) := ) ] r(xj ? , uj ? ) ???(x1 , u1 )???(xi , ui )? . The proof is given in Section 3 in the supporting material. Now we consider the relation between WLPS and EMPS. The following theorem shows that the estimator ??n given by Eq. (7) converges to the same solution as that of EMPS asymptotically, when taking the limit of ? to 1. Theorem 1. Suppose that Assumptions 1-7 are satisfied. If ? approaches to 1 from below, WLPS leads to the same solution with EMPS given by Eq. (4) as n ? ?1 . Proof. We introduce the following support lemma. Lemma 4. Suppose that Assumptions 1-6 are satisfied. Then, the partial derivative of the lower bound with q??? satisfies [ ] ? ? ? ?? ? j?1 ? ? r(xj , uj ) , lim Fn (q?? , ?) = lim Ex1 ???? ?? (x1 , u1 ) n?? ?? ??1? j=1 where ? ? 1? denotes that ? converges to 1 from below. The proof is given in Section 4 in the supporting material. From the results in Lemmas 2 and 4, it is obvious that the estimator ??n given by Eq. (7) converges to the same solution as that of EMPS as ? ? 1 from bellow. Theorem 1 implies that WLPS monotonically increases the expected reward. It should be emphasized that WLPS provides us with an important insight into DPS, i.e., the parameter update of EMPS can be interpreted as a well-studied maximum (weighted) likelihood estimation problem. This allows us to naturally apply various sophisticated techniques for model selection, which are well established in statistics, to DPS. In the next section, we discuss model selection for policy ?? (u|x). 4 Model selection with WLPS Common model selection strategies are carried out by comparing candidate models, which are specified in advance, based on a criterion that evaluates the goodness of fit of the model estimated from the obtained samples. Since the motivation for RL is to maximize the expected reward given in (2), it would be natural to seek an appropriate model for the policy through the computation of some reasonable measure to evaluate the expected reward from the sample sequences. However, since different policy models give different generative models for sample sequences, we need to obtain new sample sequences to evaluate the measure each time the model is changed. Therefore, employing a strategy of model selection based directly on the expected reward would be hopelessly inefficient. 1 In practice, the constant ? is set to an arbitrary value close to one. If we can analyze the finite sample behavior of the expected reward with the WLPS estimator, we may obtain a better estimator by finding an optimal ? in the sense of the maximization of the expected reward. Some researches have recently tackled to establish the finite sample analysis for RL based on statistical learning theory [20, 21]. These works might provide us with some insights into the finite sample analysis of WLPS. 5 Instead, to develop a tractable model selection, we focus on the weighted likelihood given by Eq. (5). As mentioned before, the policy with the maximum weighted log-likelihood must satisfy the maximum of the lower bound of the expected reward asymptotically. Moreover, since the weighted likelihood is defined under a certain fixed generative process for the sample sequences, unlike the expected reward case, the weighted likelihood can be evaluated using unique sample sequences even when the model has been changed. These observations lead to the fact that if it were possible to choose a good model from the candidate models in the sense of the weighted likelihood at each iteration in WLPS, we could realize an efficient DPS algorithm with model selection that achieves a monotonic increase in the expected reward. In this study, we develop a criterion for choosing a suitable model by following the analogy of the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) [12], designed through asymptotic analysis of the posterior probability of the models given the data. Let M1 , M2 , ? ? ? , Mk be k candidate policy models, and assume that each model Mj is characterized by a parametric policy ??j (u|x) and the prior distribution p(?j |Mj ) of the policy parameter. Also, define the marginal weighted likelihood of the j-th candidate model p??? ,j (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) as ? n ? ? Q? 1 ? p?? ,j (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) := ??j (u1 |x1 ) ??j (ui |xi )Qi p(xi |xi?1 , ui?1 )p(?j |Mj )d?j . (10) i=1 In a similar manner to the BIC, we now consider the posterior probability of the j-th model given the sample sequence by introducing the prior probability of the j-th model p(Mj ). From the generalized Bayes? rule, the posterior distribution of the j-th model is given by p??? ,j (x2:n , u1:n |x1 )p(Mj ) . (11) p(Mj |x1:n , u1:n ) := ?k ??? ,j ? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 )p(Mj ? ) j ? =1 p and in our model selection strategy, we adopt the model with the largest posterior probability. For notational simplicity, in the following discussion we omit the subscript that represents the index indicating the number of models. Assuming that the prior probability is uniform in all models, the model with the maximum posterior probability corresponds to that of the marginal weighted likelihood. The behavior of the marginal weighted likelihood can be evaluated when the integrand of marginal weighted likelihood (10) is concentrated in a neighborhood of the weighted log-likelihood estimator given by estimating equation (7), as described in the following theorem. Theorem 2. Suppose that, given an initial state x1 , a random sequence {x2:n , u1:n } is generated from the model p?? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) of the MDP. Suppose that Assumptions 1-3 and 5 are satisfied. If the following conditions (a) The estimator ??n given by Eq. (7) converges to ? at the rate of Op (n?1/2 ). (b) The prior distribution p(?|M ) satisfies p(??n |M ) = Op (1). ?? ? (c) The matrix A(?) := Ex1?????? [K? (x1 , u1 ) j=1 ? j?i r(xj , uj )] is invertible. (d) For any x ? X , u ? U and ? ? ?, K? (x, u) is uniformly bounded. are satisfied, the log marginal weighted likelihood can be calculated as ? 1 ln p??? (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) = L?n (??n ) ? m ln n + Op (1), 2 where recall that m denotes the number of dimensional of the model (policy parameter). The proof is given in Section 5 in the supporting material. Note that the term, ?n ?? ? ln p(x |x , u ) in L ( ? ), does not depend on the model. Therefore, when evaluati i?1 i?1 n n i=2 ing the posterior probability of the model, it is sufficient to compute the following model selection criterion: n ? ? 1 (12) IC = ln ???n (ui |xi )Qi ? m ln n. 2 i=1 As can be seen, this model selection criterion consists of two terms, where the first term is the weighted log-likelihood of the policy and the second is a penalty term that penalizes highly complex models. Also, since the first term is larger than the second term, this criterion gives the model with the maximum weighted log-likelihood asymptotically. Algorithm 2 describes the algorithm flow of WLPS including the model selection strategy. 6 Algorithm 2 (WLPS with model selection). 1. Generate a sample sequence {x1:n , u1:n } by employing the current policy parameter ?. 2. For all models, find estimator ??n by solving estimating equation (7) and evaluate model selection criterion (12). 3. Choose the best model based on model selection criterion (12) and check for convergence. If convergence is not satisfied, return to 1. Empirical Example We evaluated the performance of the proposed model-selection method using a simple one-dimensional linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) problem. This problem is known to be sufficiently difficult as an empirical evaluation, while it is analytically solvable. In this problem, we characterized the state transition distribution p(xi |xi?1 , ui?1 ) as a Gaussian distribution N (xi |? xi , ?) with mean x ?i = xi?1 + ui?1 and variance ? = 0.52 . The reward function was set to a quadratic function r(xi , ui ) = ?x2i ? u2i + c, where c is a positive scalar value for preventing the reward r(x, u) being negative. The control signal ui was generated from a Gaussian distribution N (ui |? ui , ? ? ) with mean u ?i and variance ? ? = 0.5. We used a linear model ?k j with polynomial basis functions defined as u ?i = j=1 ?j xj + ?0 , where k is the order of the polynomial. Note that, in this LQG setting, the optimal controller can be represented as a linear model, i.e., the optimal policy can be obtained when the order of polynomial is selected as k = 1. 700 In this experiment, we validated whether the proposed model 600 proposed model selection selection method can detect the true order of the polynoweighted log-likelihood 500 mial. To illustrate how our proposed model selection criterion works, we compared the performance of the proposed 400 model selection method with a na??ve method based on the 300 weighted log-likelihood (6). The weighted-log-likelihood- 200 based selection, similarly to the proposed method, was per- 100 formed by computing the weighted log-likelihood scores (6) 0 1 2 3 4 5 over all candidate models and selecting the model with the Theorder oder of The of basis basis functions functions maximum score among the candidates. Figure 1: Distribution of order k seFigure 1 shows the distribution on the scores of the selected lected by our model selection criterion polynomial orders k in the learned policies from first to fifth (left bar) and the weighted likelihood order by using the weighted log-likelihood and our model se- (right bar). lection criterion. The distributions of the scores were obtained by repeating random 1000 trials. A learning process was performed by 200 iterations of WLPS, each of which contained 200 samples generated by the current policy. The discounted factor ? was set to 0.99. As shown in Figure 1, in the proposed method, the peak of the selected order was located at the true order k = 1. On the other hand, in the weighted log-likelihood method, the distribution of the orders converged to a one with two peaks at k = 1 and k = 4. This result seems to show that the penalized term in our model selection criterion worked well. 5 Discussion In this study, we have discussed a DPS problem in the framework of weighted likelihood estimation. We introduced a weighted likelihood function as the objective function of DPS, and proposed an incremental algorithm, WLPS, based on the iteration of maximum weighted log-likelihood estimation. WLPS shows desirable theoretical properties, namely, consistency, asymptotic normality, and a monotonic increase in the expected reward at each iteration. Furthermore, we have constructed a model selection strategy based on the posterior probability of the model given a sample sequence through asymptotic analysis of the marginal weighted likelihood. WLPS framework has a potential to bring a new theoretical insight to DPS, and derive more efficient algorithms based on the theoretical considerations. In the rest of this paper, we summarize some key issues that need to be addressed in future research. 5.1 Statistical interpretation of model-free and model-based WLPS One of the important open issues in RL is how to combine model-free and model-based approaches with theoretical support. To this end, it is necessary to clarify the difference between model-based and model-free approaches in the theoretical sense. WLPS provides us with an interesting insight into the relation between model-free and model-based DPS from the viewpoint of statistics. 7 We begin by introducing the model-based WLPS method. Let us specify the state transition distribution p(x? |x, u) as a parametric model p? (x? |x, u) := p(x? |x, u, ?), where ? is an m? -dimensional parameter vector. Assuming p? (x? |x, u) with respect to parameter ? and taking the partial derivative of the log weighted likelihood (6), we obtain the estimating equation for parameter ?: n ? ??? n (xi?1 , ui?1 , xi ) = 0, (13) i=2 where ?? (x, u, x? ) is the partial derivative of the state transition distribution p? (x? |x, u) with respect to ?. As can be seen, estimating equation (13) corresponds to the likelihood equation, i.e., the estimator, ? ?n = ? ? n (x1:n , u1:n?1 ), given by (13) is the maximum likelihood estimator. This observation indicates that the weighted likelihood integrates two different objective functions: one for learning policy ?? (u|x), and the other for the state predictor, p? (x? |x, u). Having obtained estimator ? ?n from estimating equation (13), the model-based WLPS estimates the policy parameter by finding ? 1:n , u1:n ), of the following estimating equation: the solution, ??n := ?(x ?? p?? ,??n (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ) { n n ?? } ? j?i ???n (xi , ui )r(xj , uj ) dx2:n du1:n = 0. (14) i=1 j=i Note that estimating equation (14) is derived by taking the integral of Eq. (7) over the sample sequence {x2:n , u1:n } based on the current estimated model p?? ,??n (x2:n , u1:n |x1 ). Thus, the modelbased WLPS converges to the same parameter as the model-free WLPS, if model p? (x? |x, u) is well specified2 . We now consider the general treatment for model-free and model-based WLPS from a statistical viewpoint. Model-based WLPS fully specifies the weighted likelihood by using the parametric policy and parametric state transition models, and estimates all the parameters that appear in the parametric weighted likelihood. Hence, model-based WLPS can be framed as a parametric statistical inference problem. Meanwhile, model-free WLPS partially specifies the weighted likelihood by only using the parametric policy model. This can be seen as a semiparametric statistical model [22, 23], which includes not only parameters of interest, but also additional nuisance parameters with possibly infinite DoF, where only the policy is modeled parametrically and the other unspecified part corresponds to the nuisance parameters. Therefore, model-free WLPS can be framed as a semiparametric statistical inference problem. Hence, the difference between model-based and model-free WLPS methods can be interpreted as the difference between parametric and semiparametric statistical inference. The theoretical aspects of both parametric and semiparametric inference have been actively investigated and several approaches for combining their estimators have been proposed [23, 24, 25]. Therefore, by following these works, we have developed a novel hybrid DPS algorithm that combines model-free and model-based WLPS with desirable statistical properties. 5.2 Variance reduction technique for WLPS In order to perform fast learning of the policy, it is necessary to find estimators that can reduce the estimation variance of the policy parameters in DPS. Although variance reduction techniques have been proposed in DPS [26, 27, 28], these employ indirect approaches, i.e., instead of considering the estimation variance of the policy parameters, they reduce the estimation variance of the moments necessary to learn the policy parameter. Unfortunately, these variance reduction techniques do not guarantee decreasing the estimation variance of the policy parameters, and thus it is desirable to develop a direct approach that can evaluate and reduce the estimation variance of the policy parameters. As stated above, we can interpret model-free WLPS as a semiparametric statistical inference problem. This interpretation allows us to apply the estimating function method [22, 23], which has been well established in semiparametric statistics, directly to WLPS. The estimating function method is a powerful tool for the design of consistent estimators and the evaluation of the estimation variance of parameters in a semiparametric inference problem. The advantage of considering the estimating function is the ability 1) to characterize an entire set of consistent estimators, and 2) to find the optimal estimator with the minimum parameter estimation variance from the set of estimators [23, 29]. Therefore, by applying this to WLPS, we can characterize an entire set of estimators, which maximizes the expected reward without identifying the state transition distribution, and find the optimal estimator with the minimum estimation variance. 2 In the following discussion, in order to clarify the difference between the model-free and the model-based manners, we write original WLPS as model-free WLPS. 8 References [1] P. Dayan and G. Hinton, ?Using expectation-maximization for reinforcement learning,? Neural Computation, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 271?278, 1997. [2] J. Baxter and P. L. Bartlett, ?Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation,? Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 319?350, 2001. [3] V. R. Konda and J. N. Tsitsiklis, ?On actor-critic algorithms,? SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 1143?1166, 2003. [4] J. Peters and S. 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Trajectory-Based Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planning Felipe W. Trevizan Manuela M. Veloso Machine Learning Department Computer Science Department Carnegie Mellon University - Pittsburgh, PA {fwt,mmv}@cs.cmu.edu Abstract Probabilistic planning captures the uncertainty of plan execution by probabilistically modeling the effects of actions in the environment, and therefore the probability of reaching different states from a given state and action. In order to compute a solution for a probabilistic planning problem, planners need to manage the uncertainty associated with the different paths from the initial state to a goal state. Several approaches to manage uncertainty were proposed, e.g., consider all paths at once, perform determinization of actions, and sampling. In this paper, we introduce trajectory-based short-sighted Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (SSPs), a novel approach to manage uncertainty for probabilistic planning problems in which states reachable with low probability are substituted by artificial goals that heuristically estimate their cost to reach a goal state. We also extend the theoretical results of Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planner (SSiPP) [1] by proving that SSiPP always finishes and is asymptotically optimal under sufficient conditions on the structure of short-sighted SSPs. We empirically compare SSiPP using trajectorybased short-sighted SSPs with the winners of the previous probabilistic planning competitions and other state-of-the-art planners in the triangle tireworld problems. Trajectory-based SSiPP outperforms all the competitors and is the only planner able to scale up to problem number 60, a problem in which the optimal solution contains approximately 1070 states. 1 Introduction The uncertainty of plan execution can be modeled by using probabilistic effects in actions, and therefore the probability of reaching different states from a given state and action. This search space, defined by the probabilistic paths from the initial state to a goal state, challenges the scalability of planners. Planners manage the uncertainty by choosing a search strategy to explore the space. In this work, we present a novel approach to manage uncertainty for probabilistic planning problems that improves its scalability while still being optimal. One approach to manage uncertainty while searching for the solution of probabilistic planning problems is to consider the complete search space at once. Examples of such algorithms are value iteration and policy iteration [2]. Planners based on these algorithms return a closed policy, i.e., a universal mapping function from every state to the optimal action that leads to a goal state. Assuming the model correctly captures the cost and uncertainty of the actions in the environment, closed policies are extremely powerful as their execution never ?fails,? and the planner does not need to be re-invoked ever. Unfortunately the computation of such policies is prohibitive in complexity as problems scale up. Value iteration based probabilistic planners can be improved by combining asynchronous updates and heuristic search [3?7]. Although these techniques allow planners to compute compact policies, in the worst case, these policies are still linear in the size of the state space, which itself can be exponential in the size of the state or goals. 1 Another approach to manage uncertainty is basically to ignore uncertainty during planning, i.e., to approximate the probabilistic actions as deterministic actions. Examples of replanners based on determinization are FF-Replan [8], the winner of the first International Probabilistic Planning Competition (IPPC) [9], Robust FF [10], the winner of the third IPPC [11] and FF-Hindsight [12, 13]. Despite the major success of determinization, this simplification in the action space results in algorithms oblivious to probabilities and dead-ends, leading to poor performance in specific problems, e.g., the triangle tireworld [14]. Besides the action space simplification, uncertainty management can be performed by simplifying the problem horizon, i.e., look-ahead search [15]. Based on sampling, the Upper Confidence bound for Trees (UCT) algorithm [16] approximates the look-ahead search by focusing the search in the most promising nodes. The state space can also be simplified to manage uncertainty in probabilistic planning. One example of such approach is Envelope Propagation (EP) [17]. EP computes an initial partial policy ? and then prunes all the states not considered by ?. The pruned states are represented by a special meta state. Then EP iteratively improves its approximation of the state space. Previously, we introduced short-sighted planning [1], a new approach to manage uncertainty in planning problems: given a state s, only the uncertainty structure of the problem in the neighborhood of s is taken into account and the remaining states are approximated by artificial goals that heuristically estimate their cost to reach a goal state. In this paper, we introduced trajectory-based short-sighted Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (SSPs), a novel model to manage uncertainty in probabilistic planning problems. Trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs manage uncertainty by pruning the state space based on the most likely trajectory between states and defining artificial goal states that guide the solution towards the original goal. We also contribute by defining a class of short-sighted models and proving that the Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planner (SSiPP) [1] always terminates and is asymptotically optimal for models in this class of short-sighted models. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 introduces the basic concepts and notation. Section 3 defines formally trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs. Section 4 presents our new theoretical results for SSiPP. Section 5 empirically evaluates SSiPP using trajectory-based shortsighted SSPs with the winners of the previous IPPCs and other state-of-the-art planner. Section 6 concludes the paper. 2 Background A Stochastic Shortest Path Problem (SSP) is defined by the tuple S = hS, s0 , G, A, P, Ci, in which [1, 18]: S is the finite set of state; s0 ? S is the initial state; G ? S is the set of goal states; A is the finite set of actions; P (s? |s, a) represents the probability that s? ? S is reached after applying action a ? A in state s ? S; C(s, a, s? ) ? (0, +?) is the cost incurred when state s? is reached after applying action a in state s and this function is required to be defined for all s ? S, a ? A, s? ? S such that P (s? |s, a) > 0. A solution to an SSP is a policy ?, i.e., a mapping from S to A. If ? is defined over the entire space S, then ? is a closed policy. A policy ? defined only for the states reachable from s0 when following ? is a closed policy w.r.t. s0 and S(?, s0 ) denotes this set of reachable states. For instance, in the SSP depicted in Figure 1(a), the policy ?0 = {(s0 , a0 ), (s?1 , a0 ), (s?2 , a0 ), (s?3 , a0 )} is a closed policy w.r.t. s0 and S(?0 , s0 ) = {s0 , s?1 , s?2 , s?3 , sG }. Given a policy ?, we define trajectory as a sequence T? = hs(0) , . . . , s(k) i such that, for all i ? {0, ? ? ? , k ? 1}, ?(s(i) ) is defined and P (s(i+1) |s(i) , ?(s(i) )) > 0. The probability of a traQi<|T | jectory T? is defined as P (T? ) = i=0 ? P (s(i+1) |s(i) , ?(s(i) )) and maximum probability of a trajectory between two states Pmax (s, s? ) is defined as max? P (T? = hs, . . . , s? i). An optimal policy ? ? for an SSP is any policy that always reaches a goal state when followed from s0 and also minimizes the expected cost of T?? . For a given SSP, ? ? might not be unique, however the optimal value function V ? , i.e., the mapping from states to the minimum expected cost to reach a goal state, is unique. V ? is the fixed point of the set of equations defined by (1) for all s ? S \ G and V ? (s) = 0 for all s ? G. Notice that under the optimality criterion given by (1), SSPs are 2 a0 a1 t>1 .6 .4 .4 s2 .4 s3 .75 .25 s?1 .75 s?2 .75 .4 .4 s2 .4 s3 25 s?1 .75 s?3 .4 s2 .4 s3 .4 s?3 .75 sG s0 .75 .25 .25 .25 .6 .6 s1 .4 .75 s?2 .75 p<0.4 2 p<0.4 .6 sG .75 p<1.0 .4 s0 .75 s?3 .25 .25 .6 s1 sG t>4 .6 .6 .4 s0 t>3 .6 .6 .6 .6 s1 t>2 .6 25 s?1 .75 s?2 .75 .25 .25 .25 .25 p<0.75 p<0.75 2 p<0.75 3 ? Figure 1: (a) Example of an SSP. The initial state is s0 , the goal state is sG , C(s, a, s ) = 1, ?s ? S, a ? A and s? ? S. (b) State-space partition of (a) according to the depth-based short-sighted SSPs: Gs0 ,t contains all the states in dotted regions which their conditions hold for the given value of t. (c) State-space partition of (a) according to the trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs: Gs0 ,? contains all the states in dotted regions which their conditions hold for the given value of ?. more general than Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) [19], therefore all the work presented here is directly applicable to MDPs. V ? (s) = min a?A i Xh C(s, a, s? ) + P (s? |s, a)V ? (s? ) (1) s? ?S Definition 1 (reachability assumption). An SSP satisfies the reachability assumption if, for all s ? S, there exists sG ? G such that Pmax (s, sG ) > 0. Given an SSP S, if a goal state can be reached with positive probability from every state s ? S, then the reachability assumption (Definition 1) holds for S and 0 ? V ? (s) < ? [19]. Once V ? is known, any optimal policy ? ? can be extracted from V ? by substituting the operator min by argmin in equation (1). A possible approach to compute V ? is the value iteration algorithm: define V i+1 (s) as in (1) with V i in the right hand side instead of V ? and the sequence hV 0 , V 1 , . . . , V k i converges to V ? as k ? ? [19]. The process of computing V i+1 from V i is known as Bellman update and V 0 (s) can be initialized with an admissible heuristic H(s), i.e., a lower bound for V ? . In practice we P are interested in reaching ?-convergence, that is, given ?, find V such that maxs |V (s) ? mina s? [C(s, a, s? ) + P (s? |s, a)V (s? )]| ? ?. The following well-known result is necessary in most of our proofs [2, Assumption 2.2 and Lemma 2.1]: Theorem 1. Given an SSP S, if the reachability assumption holds for S, then the admissibility and monotonicity of V are preserved through the Bellman updates. 3 Trajectory-Based Short-Sighted Stochastic SSPs Short-sighted Stochastic Path Problems (short-sighted SSPs) [1] are a special case of SSPs in which the original problem is transformed into a smaller one by: (i) pruning the state space; and (ii) adding artificial goal states to heuristically guide the search towards the goals of the original problem. Depth-based short-sighted SSPs are defined based on the action-distance between states [1]: Definition 2 (action-distance). The non-symmetric action-distance ?(s, s? ) between two states s and s? is argmink {T? = hs, s(1) , . . . , s(k?1) , s? i|?? and T? is a trajectory}. Definition 3 (Depth-Based Short-Sighted SSP). Given an SSP S = hS, s0 , G, A, P, Ci, a state s ? S, t > 0 and a heuristic H, the (s, t)-depth-based short-sighted SSP Ss,t = hSs,t , s, Gs,t , A, P, Cs,t i associated with S is defined as: ? Ss,t = {s? ? S|?(s, s? ) ? t}; ? Gs,t = {s? ? S|?(s, s? ) = t} ? (G ? Ss,t );  C(s? , a, s?? ) + H(s?? ) if s?? ? Gs,t ? Cs,t (s? , a, s?? ) = , C(s? , a, s?? ) otherwise ?s? ? Ss,t , a ? A, s?? ? Ss,t Figure 1(b) shows, for different values of t, Ss0 ,t for the SSP in Figure 1(a); for instance, if t = 2 then Ss0 ,2 = {s0 , s1 , s?1 , s2 , s?2 } and Gs0 ,2 = {s2 , s?2 }. In the example shown in Figure 1(b), we can 3 see that generation of Ss0 ,t is independent of the trajectories probabilities: for t = 2, s2 ? Ss0 ,2 and s?3 6? Ss0 ,2 , however Pmax (s0 , s2 ) = 0.16 < Pmax (s0 , s?3 ) = 0.753 ? 0.42. Definition 4 (Trajectory-Based Short-Sighted SSP). Given an SSP S = hS, s0 , G, A, P, Ci, a state s ? S, ? ? [0, 1] and a heuristic H, the (s, ?)-trajectory-based short-sighted SSP Ss,? = hSs,? , s, Gs,? , A, P, Cs,? i associated with S is defined as: ? Ss,? = {s? ? S|?? s ? S and a ? A s.t. Pmax (s, s?) ? ? and P (s? |? s, a) > 0}; ? Gs,? = (G ? Ss,? ) ? (Ss,? ? {s? ? S|Pmax (s, s? ) < ?});  C(s? , a, s?? ) + H(s?? ) if s?? ? Gs,? ? ?? ? Cs,? (s , a, s ) = , C(s? , a, s?? ) otherwise ?s? ? Ss,? , a ? A, s?? ? Ss,? For simplicity, when H is not clear by context nor explicit, then H(s) = 0 for all s ? S. Our novel model, the trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs (Definition 4), addresses the issue of states with low trajectory probability by explicitly defining its state space Ss,? based on maximum probability of a trajectory between s and the candidate states s? (Pmax (s, s? )). Figure 1(c) shows, for all values of ? ? [0, 1], the trajectory-based Ss0 ,? for the SSP in Figure 1(a): for instance, if ? = 0.753 then Ss0 ,0.753 = {s0 , s1 , s?1 , s?2 , s?3 , sG } and Gs0 ,0.75 = {s1 , sG }. This example shows how trajectory-based short-sighted SSP can manage uncertainty efficiently: for ? = 0.753 , |Ss0 ,? | = 6 and the goal of the original SSP sG is already included in Ss0 ,? while, for the depthbased short-sighted SSPs, sG ? Ss0 ,t only for t ? 4 case in which |Ss0 ,t | = |S| = 8. Notice that the definition of Ss,? cannot be simplified to {? s ? S|Pmax (s, s?) ? ?} since not all the resulting states of actions would be included in Ss,? . For example, consider S = {s, s? , s?? }, P (s? |s, a) = 0.9 and P (s?? |s, a) = 0.1, then for ? ? (0.1, 1], {? s ? S|Pmax (s, s?) ? ?} = {s, s? }, generating an invalid SSP since not all the resulting states of a would be contained in the model. 4 Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planner The Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planner (SSiPP) is an algorithm that solves SSPs based on shortsighted SSPs [1]. SSiPP is reviewed in Algorithm 1 and consists of iteratively generating and solving short-sighted SSPs of the given SSP. Due to the reduced size of the short-sighted problems, SSiPP solves each of them by computing a closed policy w.r.t. their initial state. Therefore, we obtain a ?fail-proof? solution for each short-sighted SSP, thus if this solution is directly executed in the environment, then replanning is not needed until an artificial goal is reached. Alternatively, an anytime behavior is obtained if the execution of the computed closed policy for the short-sighted SSP is simulated (Algorithm 1 line 4) until an artificial goal sa is reached and this procedure is repeated, starting sa , until convergence or an interruption. In [1], we proved that SSiPP always terminates and is asymptotically optimal for depth-based shortsighted SSPs. We generalize the results regarding SSiPP by: (i) providing the sufficient conditions for the generation of short-sighted problems (Algorithm 1, line 1) in Definition 5; and (ii) proving that SSiPP always terminates (Theorem 3) and is asymptotically optimal (Corollary 4) when the short-sighted SSP generator respects Definition 5. Notice that, by definition, both depth-based and trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs meet the sufficient conditions presented on Definition 5. Definition 5. Given an SSP hS, s0 , G, A, P, Ci, the sufficient conditions on the short-sighted SSPs hS? , s?, G? , A, P ? , C ? i returned by the generator in Algorithm 1 line 1 are: 1. G ? S? ? G? ; 2. s? 6? G ? s? 6? G? ; and 3. for all s ? S, a ? A and s? ? S? \ G? , if P (s|s? , a) > 0 then s ? S? and P ? (s|s? , a) = P (s|s? , a). Lemma 2. SSiPP performs Bellman updates on the original SSP S. 4 1 2 3 4 SS I PP(SSP S = hS, s0 , G, A, P, Ci, H a heuristic for V ? and params the parameters to generate short-sighted SSPs) begin V ? Value function for S initialized by H s ? s0 while s 6? G do hS? , s, G? , A, P, C ? i ? G ENERATE -S HORT-S IGHTED -SSP(S, s, V , params) (? ? ? , V? ? ) ? O PTIMAL -SSP-S OLVER(hS? , s, G? , A, P, C ? i, V ) forall s? ? S? (? ? ? , s) do ? ? V (s ) ? V? (s? ) while s 6? G? do s ? execute-action(? ? ? (s)) return V end Algorithm 1: SSiPP algorithm [1]. G ENERATE -S HORT-S IGHTED -SSP represents a procedure to generate short-sighted SSPs, either depth-based or trajectory-based. In the former case params = t and params = ? for the latter. O PTIMAL -SSP-S OLVER returns an optimal policy ? ? w.r.t. s0 for S and V ? associated to ? ? , i.e., V ? needs to be defined only for s ? S(? ? , s0 ). Proof. In order to show that SSiPP performs Bellman updates implicitly, consider the loop in line 2 of Algorithm 1. Since O PTIMAL -S OLVER computes V? ? , by definition of shortsighted SSP: (i) V? ? (sG ) equals V (sG ) for all sG ? G? , therefore the value of V (sG ) remains P the same; and (ii) mina?A s? ?S [C(s, a, s? ) + P (s? |s, a)V (s? )] ? V? ? (s) for s ? S? \ G? , i.e., the assignment V (s) ? V? ? is equivalent to at least one Bellman update on V (s), beis a lower bound on V? ? and Theorem 1. Because s 6? G? and Definition 5, cause VP  ? ? ? ? ? mina?A s? ?S C(s, a, s ) + P (s |s, a)V (s ) ? V (s) is equivalent to the one Bellman update in the original SSP S. Theorem 3. Given an SSP S = hS, s0 , G, A, P, Ci such that the reachability assumption holds, an admissible heuristic H and a short-sighted problem generator that respects Definition 5, then SSiPP always terminates. Proof. Since O PTIMAL -S OLVER always finishes and the short-sighted SSP is an SSP by definition, then a goal state sG of the short-sighted SSP is always reached, therefore the loop in line 3 of Algorithm 1 always finishes. If sG ? G, then SSiPP terminates in this iteration. Otherwise, sG is an artificial goal and sG 6= s (Definition 5), i.e., sG differs from the state s used as initial state for the short-sighted SSP generation. Thus another iteration of SSiPP is performed using sG as s. Suppose, for contradiction purpose, that every goal state reached during SSiPP execution is an artificial goal, i.e., SSiPP does not terminate. Then infinitely many short-sighted SSPs are solved. Since S is finite, then there exists s ? S that is updated infinitely often, therefore V (s) ? ?. However, V ? (s) < ? by the reachability assumption. Since SSiPP performs Bellman updates (Lemma 2) then V (s) ? V ? (s) by monotonicity of Bellman updates (Theorem 1) and admissibility of H, a contradiction. Thus every execution of SSiPP reaches a goal state s?G ? G and therefore terminates. Corollary 4. Under the same assumptions of Theorem 3, the sequence hV 0 , V 1 , ? ? ? , V t i, where V 0 = H and V t = SSiPP(S, t, V t?1 ), converges to V ? as t ? ? for all s ? S(? ? , s0 ). Proof. Let S? ? S be the set of states being visited infinitely many times. Clearly, S(? ? , s0 ) ? S? since a partial policy cannot be executed ad infinitum without reaching a state in which it is not defined. Since SSiPP performs Bellman updates in the original SSP space (Lemma 2) and every execution of SSiPP terminates (Theorem 3), then we can view the sequence of lower bounds hV 0 , V 1 , ? ? ? , V t i generated by SSiPP as asynchronous value iteration. The convergence of V t?1 (s) to V ? (s) as t ? ? for all s ? S(? ? , s0 ) ? S? follows by [2, Proposition 2.2, p. 27] and guarantees the convergence of SSiPP. 5 80 10 70 10 60 Number of States (log scale) 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 |S(?*,s )| 0 |S| 0 10 0 (a) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Triangle Tireworld Problem Size 45 50 55 60 (b) Figure 2: (a) Map of the triangle tireworld for the sizes 1, 2 and 3. Circles (squares) represent locations in which there is one (no) spare tire. The shades of gray represent, for each location l, max? P (car reaches l and the tire is not flat when following the policy ? from s0 ). (b) Log-lin plot of the state space size (|S|) and the size of the states reachable from s0 when following the optimal policy ? ? (|S(? ? , s0 )|) versus the number of the triangle tireworld problem. 5 Experiments We present two sets of experiments using the triangle tireworld problems [9, 11, 20], a series of probabilistic interesting problems [14] in which a car has to travel between locations in order to reach a goal location from its initial location. The roads are represented as directed graph in a shape of a triangle and, every time the car moves between locations, a flat tire happens with probability 0.5. Some locations have a spare tire and in these locations the car can deterministically replace its flat tire by new one. When the car has a flat tire, it cannot change its location, therefore the car can get stuck in locations that do not have a spare tire (dead-ends). Figure 2(a) depicts the map of the triangle tireworld problems 1, 2 and 3 and Figure 2(b) shows the size of S and S(? ? , s0 ) for problems up to size 60. For example, the problem number 3 has 28 locations, i.e., 28 nodes in the corresponding graph on Figure 2(a), its state space has 19562 states and its optimal policy reaches 8190 states. Every triangle tireworld problem is a probabilistic interesting problem [14]: there is only one policy that reaches the goal with probability 1 and all the other policies have probability at most 0.5 of reaching the goal. Also, the solution based on the shortest path has probability 0.52n?1 of reaching the goal, where n is the problem number. This property is illustrated by the shades of gray in Figure 2(a) that represents, for each location l, max? P (car reaches l and the tire is not flat when following the policy ? from s0 ). For the experiments in this section, we use the zero-heuristic for all the planners, i.e., V (s) = 0 for all s ? S and LRTDP [4] as O PTIMAL -S OLVER for SSiPP. For all planners, the parameter ? (for ?-convergence) is set to 10?4 . For UCT, we disabled the random rollouts because the probability of any policy other than the optimal policy to reach a dead-end is at least 0.5 therefore, with highprobability, UCT would assign ? (cost of a dead-end) as the cost of all the states including the initial state. The experiments are conducted in a Linux machine with 4 cores running at 3.07GHz using MDPSIM [9] as environment simulator. The following terminology is used for describing the experiments: round, the computation for a solution for the given SSP; and run, a set of rounds in which learning is allowed between rounds, i.e., the knowledge obtained from one round can be used to solve subsequent rounds. The solution computed during one round is simulated by MDPSIM in a client-server loop: MDPSIM sends a state s and requests an action from the planner, then the planner replies by sending the action a to be executed in s. The evaluation is done by the number of rounds simulated by MDPSIM that reached a goal state. The maximum number of actions allowed per round is 2000 and rounds that exceed this limit are stopped by MDPSIM and declared as failure, i.e., goal not reached. 6 Planner SSiPP depth=8 UCT SSiPP trajectory 5 50.0 50.0 50.0 10 40.7 50.0 50.0 15 41.2 50.0 50.0 Triangle Tireworld Problem Number 20 25 30 35 40 45 40.8 41.1 41.0 40.9 40.0 40.6 50.0 50.0 43.1 15.7 12.1 8.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50 40.8 6.8 50.0 55 40.3 5.0 50.0 60 40.4 4.0 50.0 Table 1: Number of rounds solved out of 50 for experiment in Section 5.1. Results are averaged over 10 runs and the 95% confidence interval is always less than 1.0. In all the problems, SSiPP using trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs solves all the 50 round in all the 10 runs, therefore its 95% confidence interval is 0.0 for all the problems. Best results shown in bold font. Planner SSiPP depth=8 LRTDP UCT (4, 100) UCT (8, 100) UCT (2, 100) SSiPP ? = 1.0 SSiPP ? = 0.50 SSiPP ? = 0.25 SSiPP ? = 0.125 5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 10 45.4 23.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 27.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 15 41.2 14.1 50.0 50.0 50.0 29.1 50.0 50.0 50.0 Triangle Tireworld Problem Number 20 25 30 35 40 45 42.3 41.2 44.1 42.4 32.7 20.6 0.3 48.8 24.0 12.3 6.5 4.0 2.5 46.3 24.0 12.3 6.7 3.7 2.2 49.5 23.2 12.0 7.5 3.5 2.2 26.8 26.0 26.6 28.6 27.2 26.6 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 47.6 45.0 41.1 42.7 41.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 49.8 50 14.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 27.6 50.0 40.7 37.4 55 9.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 26.2 50.0 40.1 26.4 60 7.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 26.9 50.0 40.4 18.9 Table 2: Number of rounds solved out of 50 for experiment in Section 5.2. Results are averaged over 10 runs and the 95% confidence interval is always less than 2.6. UCT (c, w) represents UCT using c as bias parameter and w samples per decision. In all the problems, trajectory-based SSiPP for ? = 0.5 solves all the 50 round in all the 10 runs, therefore its 95% confidence interval is 0.0 for all the problems. Best results shown in bold font. 5.1 Fixed number of search nodes per decision In this experiment, we compare the performance of UCT, depth-based SSiPP, and trajectory-based SSiPP with respect to the number of nodes explored by depth-based SSiPP. Formally, to decide what action to apply in a given state s, each planner is allowed to use at most B = |Ss,t | search nodes, i.e., the size of the search space is bounded by the equivalent (s, t)-short-sighted SSP. We choose t equals to 8 since it obtains the best performance in the triangle tireworld problems [1]. Given the search nodes budget B, for UCT we sample the environment until the search tree contains B nodes; and for trajectory-based SSiPP we use ? = argmax? {|Ss,? | s.t. B ? |Ss,? |}. The methodology for this experiment is as follows: for each problem, 10 runs of 50 rounds are performed for each planner using the search nodes budget B. The results, averaged over the 10 runs, are presented in Table 1. We set as time and memory cut-off 8 hours and 8 Gb, respectively, and UCT for problems 35 to 60 was the only planner preempted by the time cut-off. Trace-based SSiPP outperforms both depth-based SSiPP and UCT, solving all the 50 rounds in all the 10 runs for all the problems. 5.2 Fixed maximum planning time In this experiment, we compare planners by limiting the maximum planning time. The methodology used in this experiment is similar to the one in IPPC?04 and IPPC?06: for each problem, planners need to solve 1 run of 50 rounds in 20 minutes. For this experiment, the planners are allowed to perform internal simulations, for instance, a planner can spend 15 minutes solving rounds using internal simulations and then use the computed policy to solve the required 50 rounds through MDPSIM in the remaining 5 minutes. The memory cut-off is 3Gb. For this experiment, we consider the following planners: depth-based SSiPP for t = 8 [1], trajectorybased SSiPP for ? ? {1.0, 0.5, 0.25, 0.125}, LRTDP using 3-look-ahead [1] and 12 different parametrizations of UCT obtained by using the bias parameter c ? {1, 2, 4, 8} and the number of samples per decision w ? {10, 100, 1000}. The winners of IPPC?04, IPPC?06 and IPPC?08 are 7 omitted since their performance on the triangle tireworld problems are strictly dominated by depthbase SSiPP for t = 8. Table 2 shows the results of this experiment and due to space limitations we show only the top 3 parametrizations of UCT: 1st (c = 4, w = 100); 2nd (c = 8, w = 100); and 3rd (c = 2, w = 100). All the four parametrizations of trajectory-based SSiPP outperform the other planners for problems of size equal or greater than 45. Trajectory-based SSiPP using ? = 0.5 is especially noteworthy because it achieves the perfect score in all problems, i.e., it reaches a goal state in all the 50 rounds in all the 10 runs for all the problems. The same happens for ? = 0.125 and problems up to size 40. For larger problems, trajectory-based SSiPP using ? = 0.125 reaches the 20 minutes time cut-off before solving 50 rounds, however all the solved rounds successfully reach the goal. This interesting behavior of trajectory-based SSiPP for the triangle tireworld can be explained by the following theorem: Theorem 5. For the triangle tireworld, trajectory-based SSiPP using an admissible heuristic never falls in a dead-end for ? ? (0.5i+1 , 0.5i ] for i ? {1, 3, 5, . . . }. Proof Sketch. The optimal policy for the triangle tireworld is to follow the longest path: move from the initial location l0 to the goal location lG passing through location lc , where l0 , lc and lG are the vertices of the triangle formed by the problem?s map. The path from lc to lG is unique, i.e., there is only one applicable move-car action for all the locations in this path. Therefore all the decision making to find the optimal policy happens between the locations l0 and lc . Each location l? in the path from l0 to lc has either two or three applicable move-car actions and we refer to the set of locations l? with three applicable move-car actions as N. Every location l? ? N is reachable from l0 by applying an even number of move-car actions (Figure 2(a)) and the three applicable move-car actions in l? are: (i) the optimal action ac , i.e., move the car towards lc ; (ii) the action aG that moves the car towards lG ; and (iii) the action ap that moves the car parallel to the shortest-path from l0 to lG . The location reached by ap does not have a spare tire, therefore ap is never selected by a greedy choice over any admissible heuristic since it reaches a dead-end with probability 0.5. The locations reached by applying either ac or aG have a spare tire and the greedy choice between them depends on the admissible heuristic used, thus aG might be selected instead of ac . However, after applying aG , only one move-car action a is available and it reaches a location that does not have a spare tire. Therefore, the greedy choice between ac and aG considering two or more move-car actions is optimal under any admissible heuristic: every sequence of actions haG , a, . . . i reaches a dead-end with probability at least 0.5 and at least one sequence of actions starting with ac has probability 0 to reach a dead-end, e.g., the optimal solution. Given ?, we denote as Ls,? the set of all locations corresponding to states in Ss,? and as ls the location corresponding to the state s. Thus, Ls,? contains all the locations reachable from ls using up to m = ?log0.5 ?? + 1 move-car actions. If m is even and ls ? N, then every location in Ls,? ? N represents a state either in Gs,? or at least two move-car actions away from any state in Gs,? . Therefore the solution of the (s, ?)-trajectory-based short-sighted SSP only chooses the action ac to move the car. Also, since m is even, every state s used by SSiPP for generating (s, ?)-trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs has ls ? N. Therefore, for even values of m, i.e., for ? ? (0.5i+1 , 0.5i ] and i ? {1, 3, 5, . . . }, trajectory-based SSiPP always chooses the actions ac to move the car to lc , thus avoiding the all dead-ends. 6 Conclusion In this paper, we introduced trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs, a new model to manage uncertainty in probabilistic planning problems. This approach consists of pruning the state space based on the most likely trajectory between states and defining artificial goal states that guide the solution towards the original goals. We also defined a class of short-sighted models that includes depth-based and trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs and proved that SSiPP always terminates and is asymptotically optimal for short-sighted models in this class. We empirically compared trajectory-based SSiPP with depth-based SSiPP and other state-of-the-art planners in the triangle tireworld. Trajectory-based SSiPP outperforms all the other planners and it is the only planner able to scale up to problem number 60, a problem in which the optimal solution contains approximately 1070 states, under the IPPC evaluation methodology. 8 References [1] F. W. Trevizan and M. M. Veloso. Short-sighted stochastic shortest path problems. In In Proc. of the 22nd International Conference on Automated Planning and Scheduling (ICAPS), 2012. [2] D. Bertsekas and J. N. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-Dynamic Programming. Athena Scientific, 1996. [3] A.G. Barto, S.J. Bradtke, and S.P. Singh. Learning to act using real-time dynamic programming. Artificial Intelligence, 72(1-2):81?138, 1995. [4] B. Bonet and H. Geffner. Labeled RTDP: Improving the convergence of real-time dynamic programming. In Proc. of the 13th International Conference on Automated Planning and Scheduling (ICAPS), 2003. [5] H.B. McMahan, M. Likhachev, and G.J. Gordon. Bounded real-time dynamic programming: RTDP with monotone upper bounds and performance guarantees. In Proc. of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2005. [6] Trey Smith and Reid G. Simmons. Focused Real-Time Dynamic Programming for MDPs: Squeezing More Out of a Heuristic. In Proc. of the 21st National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2006. [7] S. Sanner, R. Goetschalckx, K. Driessens, and G. Shani. Bayesian real-time dynamic programming. In Proc. of the 21st International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), 2009. [8] S. Yoon, A. Fern, and R. Givan. FF-Replan: A baseline for probabilistic planning. In Proc. of the 17th International Conference on Automated Planning and Scheduling (ICAPS), 2007. [9] H.L.S. Younes, M.L. Littman, D. Weissman, and J. Asmuth. The first probabilistic track of the international planning competition. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 24(1):851?887, 2005. [10] F. Teichteil-Koenigsbuch, G. Infantes, and U. Kuter. RFF: A robust, FF-based mdp planning algorithm for generating policies with low probability of failure. 3rd International Planning Competition (IPPC-ICAPS), 2008. [11] D. Bryce and O. Buffet. 6th International Planning Competition: Uncertainty Track. In 3rd International Probabilistic Planning Competition (IPPC-ICAPS), 2008. [12] S. Yoon, A. Fern, R. Givan, and S. Kambhampati. Probabilistic planning via determinization in hindsight. In Proc. of the 23rd National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2008. [13] S. Yoon, W. Ruml, J. Benton, and M. B. Do. Improving Determinization in Hindsight for Online Probabilistic Planning. In Proc. of the 20th International Conference on Automated Planning and Scheduling (ICAPS), 2010. [14] I. Little and S. Thi?ebaux. Probabilistic planning vs replanning. In Proc. of ICAPS Workshop on IPC: Past, Present and Future, 2007. [15] J. Pearl. Heuristics: Intelligent Search Strategies for Computer Problem Solving. AddisonWesley, Menlo Park, California, 1985. [16] Levente Kocsis and Csaba Szepesvri. Bandit based Monte-Carlo Planning. In Proc. of the European Conference on Machine Learning (ECML), 2006. [17] T. Dean, L.P. Kaelbling, J. Kirman, and A. Nicholson. Planning under time constraints in stochastic domains. Artificial Intelligence, 76(1-2):35?74, 1995. [18] D.P. Bertsekas and J.N. Tsitsiklis. An analysis of stochastic shortest path problems. Mathematics of Operations Research, 16(3):580?595, 1991. [19] D.P. Bertsekas. Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control. Athena Scientific, 1995. [20] Blai Bonet and Robert Givan. 2th International Probabilistic Planning Competition (IPPCICAPS). http://www.ldc.usb.ve/?bonet/ipc5/ (accessed on Dec 13, 2011), 2007. 9
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Efficient high-dimensional maximum entropy modeling via symmetric partition functions J. Andrew Bagnell The Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Paul Vernaza The Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Abstract Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling is a popular choice for sequence analysis in applications such as natural language processing, where the sequences are embedded in discrete, tractably-sized spaces. We consider the problem of applying MaxEnt to distributions over paths in continuous spaces of high dimensionality? a problem for which inference is generally intractable. Our main contribution is to show that this intractability can be avoided as long as the constrained features possess a certain kind of low dimensional structure. In this case, we show that the associated partition function is symmetric and that this symmetry can be exploited to compute the partition function efficiently in a compressed form. Empirical results are given showing an application of our method to learning models of high-dimensional human motion capture data. 1 Introduction This work aims to generate useful probabilistic models of high dimensional trajectories in continuous spaces. This is illustrated in Fig. 1, which demonstrates the application of our proposed method to the problem of building generative models of high dimensional human motion capture data. Using this method, we may efficiently learn models and perform inferences including but not limited to the following: (1) Given any single pose, what is the probability that a certain type of motion ever visits this pose? (2) Given any pose, what is the distribution over future positions of the actor?s hands? (3) Given any initial sequence of poses, what are the odds that this sequence corresponds to one action type versus another? (4) What is the most likely sequence of poses interpolating any two states? The maximum entropy learning (MaxEnt) approach advocated here has the distinct advantage of being able to efficiently answer all of the aforementioned global inferences in a unified framework while also allowing the use of global features of the state and observations. In this sense, it is analogous to another MaxEnt learning method: the Conditional Random Field (CRF), which is typically applied to modeling discrete sequences. We show how MaxEnt modeling may be efficiently applied to paths in continuous state spaces of high dimensionality. This is achieved without having to resort to expensive, approximate inference methods based on MCMC, and without having to assume that the sequences themselves lie in or near a low dimensional submanifold, as in standard dimensionality-reduction-based methods. The key to our method is to make a natural assumption about the complexity of the features, rather than the paths, that results in simplifying symmetries. This idea is illustrated in Fig. 2. Here we suppose that we are tasked with the problem of comparing two sets of paths: the first, sampled from an empirical distribution; and the second, sampled from a learned distribution intended to model the distribution underlying the empirical samples. Suppose first that we are to determine whether the learned distribution correctly samples the desired distribution. We claim that a natural approach to this problem is to visualize both sets of paths by projecting 1 up-phase jumping jack Log prob. -49.9 down-phase jumping jack Log prob. -70.0 side twist Log prob. -2 * 10-11 cross-toe touch Log prob. -24.6 (a) True held-out class = side twist up-phase jumping jack down-phase jumping jack side twist cross-toe touch Log prob. -2*10-5 Log prob. -10.6 Log prob. -81.6 Log prob. -79.0 (b) True held-out class = down-phase jumping jack Figure 1: Visualizations of predictions of future locations of hands for an individually held-out motion capture frame, conditioned on classes indicated by labels above figures, and corresponding class membership probabilities. See supplementary material for video demonstration. Figure 2: Illustration of the constraint that paths sampled from the learned distribution should (in expectation) visit certain regions of space exactly as often as they are visited by paths sampled from the true distribution, after projection of both onto a low dimensional subspace. The shading of each planar cell is proportional to the expected number of times that cell is visited by a path. them onto a common low dimensional basis. If these projections appear similar, then we might conclude that the learned model is valid. If they do not appear similar, we might try to adjust the learned distribution, and compare projections again, iterating until the projections appear similar enough to convince us that the learned model is valid. We then might consider automating this procedure by choosing numerical features of the projected paths and comparing these features in order to determine whether the projected paths appear similar. Our approach may be thought of as a way of formalizing this procedure. The MaxEnt method described here iteratively samples paths, projects them onto a low dimensional subspace, computes features of these projected paths, and adjusts the distribution so as to ensure that, in expectation, these features match the desired features. A key contribution of this work is to show that that employing low dimensional features of this sort enables tractable inference and learning algorithms, even in high dimensional spaces. Maximum entropy learning requires repeatedly calculating feature statistics for different distributions, which generally requires computing average feature values over all paths sampled from the distributions. Though this is straightforward to accomplish via dynamic programming in low dimensional spaces, it may not be obvious that the same can be accomplished in high-dimensional spaces. We will show how this is possible by exploiting symmetries that result from this assumption. The organization of this paper is as follows. We first review some preliminary material. We then continue with a detailed exposition of our method, followed by experimental results. Finally, we describe the relation of our method to existing methods and discuss conclusions. 2 2 Preliminaries We now briefly review the basic MaxEnt modeling problem in discrete state spaces. In the basic MaxEnt problem, we have N disjoint events xi , K random variables denoted features ?j (xi ) mapping events to scalars, and K expected values of these features E?j . To continue the example previously discussed, we will think of each xi as being a path, ?j (xi ) as being the number of times that a path passes through the jth spatial region, and E?j as the empirically estimated number of times that a path visits the jth region. Our goal is to find a distribution p(xi ) over the events consistent with our empirical observations in the sense that it generates the observed feature expectations: X ?j (xi )p(xi ) = E?j , ?j ? {1 . . . K}. i Of all such distributions, we will seek the one whose entropy is maximal [6]. This problem can be written compactly as X max ? pi log pi s.t. ?p = E?, (1) p?? i where we have defined vectors pi = p(xi ) and ?, the feature matrix ?ij = ?i (xj ), and the probability simplex ?. Introducing a vector of Lagrange multipliers ?, the Lagrangian dual of this concave maximization problem is [3] ? ? X X max ? log ? exp(? ?ji ?j )? ? E?T ?. (2) ? i j It is straightforward to show that the gradient of the dual objective g(?) is given by ?? g = Ep?[? | ?] ? E?, where p? is the Gibbs distribution over x defined by ? ? X p?(xi | ?) ? exp ?? ?j (xi )?j ? . (3) j 3 MaxEnt modeling of continuous paths We now consider an extension of the MaxEnt formalism to the case that the events are paths embedded in a continuous space. The main questions to be addressed here are how to handle the transition from a finite number of events to an infinite number of events, and how to define appropriate features. We will address the latter problem first. We suppose that each event x now consists of a continuous, arc-length-parameterized path, expressed as a function R+ ? RN mapping a non-negative time into the state space RN . A natural choice in this case is to express each feature ?j as an integral of the following form: Z T ?j (x) = ?j (x(s))ds, (4) 0 where T is the duration (or length) of x and each ?j : RN ? R+ is what we refer to as a feature potential. Continuing the previous example, if we choose ?j (x(t)) = 1 if x(t) is in region j and ?j (x(t)) = 0 otherwise, then ?j (x) is the total time that x spends within the jth region of space. An analogous expression for the probability of a continuous P path is then obtained by substituting these features into (3). Defining the cost function C? := j ?j ?j and the cost functional Z T S? {x} := C? (x(s))ds, (5) 0 we have that p?(x | ?) = R exp ?S? {x} , exp ?S? {x}Dx 3 (6) R where the notation exp ?S? {x}Dx denotes the integral of the cost functional over the space of all R continuous paths. The normalization factor Z? := exp ?S? {x}Dx is referred to as the partition function. As in the discrete case, computing the partition function is of prime concern, as it enables a variety of inference and learning techniques. The functional integral in (6) can be formalized in several ways, including taking an expectation with respect to Wiener measure [12] or as a Feynman integral [4]. Computationally, evaluating Z? requires the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation over the state space, which can be derived via the Feynman-Kac theorem [12, 5]. The solution, denoted Z? (a) for a ? RN , gives the value of the functional integral evaluated over all paths beginning at a and ending at a given goal location (henceforth assumed w.l.o.g. to be the origin). A discrete approximation to the partition function can therefore be computed via standard numerical methods such as finite differences, finite elements, or spectral methods [2]. However, we proceed by discretizing the state space as a lattice graph and computing the partition function associated with discrete paths in this graph via a standard dynamic programming method [1, 15, 11]. Recent work has shown that this method recovers the PDE solution in the discretization limit [5]. Concretely, the discretized partition function is computed as the fixed point of the following iteration: X Z? (a) ? ?(a) + exp(?C? (a)) Z? (a0 ), (7) a0 ?a 0 0 where a ? a denotes the set of a adjacent to a in the lattice,  is the spacing between adjacent lattice elements, and ? is the Kronecker delta. 1 4 Efficient inference via symmetry reduction Unfortunately, the dynamic programming approach described above is tractable only for low dimensional problems; for problems in more than a few dimensions, even storing the partition function would be infeasible. Fortunately, we show in this section that it is possible to compute the partition function directly in a compressed form, given that the features also satisfy a certain compressibility property. 4.1 Symmetry of the partition function Elaborating on this statement, we now recall Eq. (4), which expresses the features as integrals of feature potentials ?j over paths. We then examine the effects of assuming that the ?j are compressible in the sense that they may be predicted exactly from their projection onto a low dimensional subspace?i.e., we assume that ?j (a) = ?j (W W T a), ?j, a, (8) for some given N ?d matrix W , with d < N . The following results show that compressibility of the features in this sense implies that the corresponding partition function is also compressible, in the sense that we need only compute it restricted to a d + 1 dimensional subspace in order to determine its values at arbitrary locations in N -dimensional space. This is shown in two steps. First, we show that the partition function is symmetric about rotations about the origin that preserve the subspace spanned by the columns of W . We then show that there always exists such a rotation that also brings an arbitrary point in RN into correspondence with a point in a a d + 1-dimensional slice where the partition function has been computed. R Theorem 4.1. Let Z? = exp ?S? {x}Dx, with S? as defined in Eq. 5 and features derived from feature potentials ?j . Suppose that ?j (x) = ?j (W W T x), ?j, x. Then for any orthogonal R such that RW = W , Z? (a) = Z? (Ra), ?a ? RN . (9) Proof. By definition, Z Z? (Ra) = x(0)=0 x(T )=Ra Z exp ? T ! C? (x(s))ds Dx. 0 1 In practice, this is typically done with respect to log Z? , which yields an iteration similar to a soft version of value iteration of the Bellman equation [15] 4 The substitution y(t) = RT x(t) yields Z Z? (Ra) = y(0)=0 y(T )=a Z ! T C? (Ry(s))ds Dy. exp ? 0 Since ?j (a) = ?j (W W T a), ?j, a implies that C? (x) = C? (W W T x) ?x, we can make the substitutions C? (Ry) = C? (W W T Ry) = C? (W W T y) = C? (y) in the previous expression to prove the result. The next theorem makes explicit how to exploit the symmetry of the partition function by computing it restricted to a low-dimensional slice of the state space. Corollary 4.2. Let W be a matrix such that ?j (a) = ?j (W W T a), ?j, a, and let ? be any vector such that W T ? = 0 and k?k = 1. Then Z? (a) = Z? (W W T a + k(I ? W W T )ak?), ?a (10) Proof. The proof of this result is to show that there always exists a rotation satisfying the conditions of Theorem 4.1 that rotates b onto the subspace spanned by the columns of W and ?. We simply choose an R such that RW = W and R(I ? W W T b) = kI ? W W T bk?. That this is a valid rotation follows from the orthogonality of W and ? and the unit-norm assumption on ?. Applying any such rotation to b proves the result. 4.2 Exploiting symmetry in DP We proceed to compute the discretized partition function via a modified version of the dynamic programming algorithm described in Sec. 3. The only substantial change is that we leverage Corollary 4.2 in order to represent the partition function in a compressed form. This implies corresponding changes in the updates, as these must now be derived from the new, compressed representation. Figure 3 illustrates the algorithm applied to computing the partition function associated with a constant C(x) in a two-dimensional space. The partition function is represented by its values on a regular lattice lying in the low-dimensional slice spanned by the columns of W and ?, as defined in Corollary 4.2. In the illustrated example, W is empty, and ? is any arbitrary line. At each iteration of the algorithm, we update each value in the slice based on adjacent values, as before. However, it is now the case that some of the adjacent nodes lie off of the slice. We compute the values associated with such nodes by rotating them onto the slice (according to Corollary 4.2) and interpolating the value based on those of adjacent nodes within the slice. An explicit formula for these updates is readily obtained. Suppose that b is a point contained within the slice and y := b + ? is an adjacent point lying off the slice whose value we wish to compute. By assumption, W T ? = ? T ? = 0. We therefore observe that ? T (I ? W W T )b = 0, since (I ? W W T )b ? ?. Hence, V (y) = V (W W T (b + ?) + k(I ? W W T )(b + ?)k?) = V (W W T b + k(I ? W W T )b + ?k?) q V (W W T b + k(I ? W W T )bk2 + k?k2 ?). = (11) An interesting observation is that this formula depends on y only through k?k. Therefore, assuming that all nodes adjacent to b lie at a distance of ? from it, all of the updates from the off-slice neighbors will be identical, which allows us to compute the net contribution due to all such nodes simply by multiplying the above value by their cardinality. The computational complexity of the algorithm is in this case independent of the dimension of the ambient space. A detailed description of the algorithm is given in Algorithm 1. 4.3 MaxEnt training procedure Given the ability to efficiently compute the partition function, learning may proceed in a way exactly analogous to the discrete case (Sec. 2). A particular complication in our case is that exactly 5 Figure 3: Illustration of dynamic programming update (constant cost example). The large sphere marked goal denotes origin with respect to which partition function is computed. Partition function in this case is symmetric about all rotations around the origin; hence, any value can be computed by rotation onto any axis (slice) where the partition function is known (?). Contributions from off-slice and on-slice points are denoted by off and on, respectively. Symmetry implies that value updates from off-axis nodes can be computed by rotation (proj) onto the axis. See supplementary material for video demonstration. computing feature expectations under the model distribution is not as straightforward as in the low dimensional case, as we must account for the symmetry of the partition function. As such, we compute feature expectations by sampling paths from the model given the partition function. Algorithm 1 PartitionFunc(xT , C? , W, N, d) Z : Rd+1 ? R : y 7? 0 {initialize partition function to zero} ? ? (? | h?, ?i = 1, W T ? = 0) {choose an appropriate ?} lift : Rd+1 ? RN : y 7? [W ?]y + x {define lifting and projection operators} T   W T (x ? xT ) N d+1 proj : R ? R : x 7? k(I ? W W T )(x ? xT )k while Z not converged do for y ? GP ? Zd+1 do zon ? {??Zd+1 |k?k=1} Z(y 0 + ?) {calculate on-slice contributions} q 2 zoff ? 2(N ? d ? 1)Z(y1 , . . . , yd , yd+1 + 1) {calculate off-slice contributions} +zoff +2N ?(y) Z(y) ? 2Nzon(exp C? (lift(y))) end for end while Z 0 : RN ? R : x 7? Z(proj(x)) return Z 0 5 {iterate fixed-point equation} {return partition function in original coordinates} Results We implemented the method and applied it to the problem of modeling high dimensional motion capture data, as described in the introduction. Our training set consisted of a small sample of trajectories representing four different exercises performed by a human actor. Each sequence is represented as a 123-dimensional time series representing the Cartesian coordinates of 41 reflective markers located on the actor?s body. The feature potentials employed consisted of indicator functions of the form ?j (a) = {1 if W T a ? Cj , 0 otherwise}, (12) where the Cj were non-overlapping, rectangular regions of the projected state space. A W was chosen with two columns, using the method proposed in [13], which is effectively similar to performing PCA on the velocities of the trajectory. 6 HDMaxEnt 100 fraction of path revealed correct discrimination threshold fraction of path revealed HDMaxEnt 100 log. reg. 0 cross-toe touch 200 100 log. reg. 0 HDMaxEnt 200 100 correct discrimination threshold side twist log odds ratio HDMaxEnt 200 log. reg. 0 down-phase jumping jack log odds ratio log odds ratio log odds ratio 200 up-phase jumping jack correct discrimination threshold fraction of path revealed 0 correct discrimination threshold log. reg. fraction of path revealed Figure 4: Results of classification experiment given progressively revealed trajectories. Title indicates true class of held-out trajectory. Abscissa indicates the fraction of the trajectory revealed to the classifiers. Samples of held-out trajectory at different points along abscissa are illustrated above fraction of path revealed. Ordinate shows predicted log-odds ratio between correct class and next-most-probable class. We applied our method to train a maximum entropy model independently for each of the four classes. Given our ability to efficiently compute the partition function, this enables us to normalize each of these probability distributions. Classification can then be performed simply by evaluating the probability of a held-out example under each of the class models. Knowing the partition function also enables us to perform various marginalizations of the distribution that would otherwise be intractable. [8, 15] In particular, we performed an experiment consisting of evaluating the probability of a held-out trajectory under each model as it was progressively revealed in time. This can be accomplished by evaluating the following quantity: ! t X Z? (xt ) t P (x0 )? exp ? C? (xi ) , (13) Z ? (x0 ) i=1 where x0 , . . . , xt represents the portion of the trajectory revealed up to time t, P (x0 ) is the prior probability of the initial state, and  is the spacing between successive samples. Results of this experiment are shown in Fig. 4, which plots the predicted log-odds ratio between the correct and next-most-probable classes. For comparison, we also implemented a classifier based on logistic regression. Features for this classifier consisted of radial basis functions centered around the portion of each training trajectory revealed up to the current time step. Both methods also employed the same prior initial state probability P (x0 ), which was constructed as a single isotropic Gaussian distribution for each class. Both classifiers therefore predict the same class distributions at time t = 0. In the first three held-out examples, the initial state was distinctive enough to unambiguously predict the sequence label. The logistic regression predictions were generally inaccurate on their own, but the the confidence of these predictions was so low that these probabilities were far outweighed by the prior?the log-odds ratio in time therefore appears almost flat for logistic regression. Our method (denoted HDMaxEnt in the figure), on the other hand, demonstrated exponentially increasing confidence as the sequences were progressively revealed. In the last example, the initial state appeared more similar to that of another class, causing the prior to mispredict its label. Logistic regression again exhibited no deviation from the prior in time. Our method, however, quickly recovered the correct label as the rest of the sequence was revealed. Figures 1(a) and 1(b) show the result of a different inference?here we used the same learned class models to evaluate the probability that a single held-out frame was generated by a path in each class. This probability can be computed as the product of forward and backwards partition functions evaluated at the held-out frame divided by the partition function between nominal start and goal positions. [15] We also sampled trajectories given each potential class label, given the held-out frame as a starting point, and visualized the results. 7 The first held-out frame, displayed in Fig. 1(a), is distinctive enough that its marginal probability under the correct class, is far greater than its probability under any other class. The visualizations make it apparent that it is highly unlikely that this frame was sampled from one of the jumping jack paths, as this would require an unnatural excursion from the kinds of trajectory normally produced by those classes, while it is slightly more plausible that the frame could have been taken from a path sampled from the cross-toe touch class. Fig. 1(b) shows a case where the held-out frame is ambiguous enough that it could have been generated by either the jumping jack up or down phases. In this case, the most likely prediction is incorrect, but it is still the case that the probabilities of the two plausible classes far outweigh those of the visibly less-plausible classes. 6 Related work Our work bears the most relation to the extensive literature on maximum entropy modeling in sequence analysis. A well-known example of such a technique is the Conditional Random Field [9], which is applicable to modeling discrete sequences, such as those encountered in natural language processing. Our method is also an instance of MaxEnt modeling applied to sequence analysis; however, our method applies to high-dimensional paths in continuous spaces with a continuous notion of (potentially unbounded) time (as opposed to the discrete notions of finite sequence length or horizon). These considerations necessitate the development of the formulation and inference techniques described here. Also notable are latent variable models that employ Gaussian process regression to probabilistically represent observation models and the latent dynamics [14, 10, 7]. Our method differs from these principally in two ways. First our method is able to exploit global, contextual features of sequences without having to model how these features are generated from a latent state. Although the features used in the experiments shown here were fairly simple, we plan to show in future work how our method can leverage context-dependent features to generalize across different environments. Second, global inferences in the aforementioned GP-based methods are intractable, since the state distribution as a function of time is generally not a Gaussian process, unless the dynamics are assumed linear. Therefore, expensive, approximate inference methods such as MCMC would be required to compute any of the inferences demonstrated here. 7 Conclusions We have demonstrated a method for efficiently performing inference and learning for maximumentropy modeling of high dimensional, continuous trajectories. Key to the method is the assumption that features arise from potentials that vary only in low dimensional subspaces. The partition functions associated with such features can be computed efficiently by exploiting the symmetries that arise in this case. The ability to efficiently compute the partition function enables tractable learning as well as the opportunity to compute a variety of inferences that would otherwise be intractable. We have demonstrated experimentally that the method is able to build plausible models of high dimensional motion capture trajectories that are well-suited for classification and other prediction tasks. As future work, we would like to explore similar ideas to leverage more generic types of low dimensional structure that might arise in maximum entropy modeling. In particular, we anticipate that the method described here might be leveraged as a subroutine in future approximate inference methods for this class of problems. We are also investigating problem domains such as assistive teleoperation, where the ability to leverage contextual features is essential to learning policies that generalize. 8 Acknowledgments This work is supported by the ONR MURI grant N00014-09-1-1052, Distributed Reasoning in Reduced Information Spaces. 8 References [1] T. Akamatsu. Cyclic flows, markov process and stochastic traffic assignment. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 30(5):369?386, 1996. [2] J.P. Boyd. Chebyshev and Fourier spectral methods. Dover, 2001. [3] S.P. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex optimization. Cambridge Univ Pr, 2004. [4] R.P. Feynman, A.R. Hibbs, and D.F. Styer. Quantum Mechanics and Path Integrals: Emended Edition. Dover Publications, 2010. [5] S. Garc??a-D??ez, E. Vandenbussche, and M. Saerens. A continuous-state version of discrete randomized shortest-paths, with application to path planning. In CDC and ECC, 2011. [6] E.T. Jaynes. Information theory and statistical mechanics. The Physical Review, 106(4):620? 630, 1957. [7] J. Ko and D. Fox. Gp-BayesFilters: Bayesian filtering using Gaussian process prediction and observation models. Autonomous Robots, 27(1):75?90, 2009. [8] D. Koller and N. Friedman. Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques. MIT Press, 2009. [9] J. Lafferty. Conditional random fields: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data. In ICML, 2001. [10] N.D. Lawrence and J. Qui?nonero-Candela. Local distance preservation in the GP-LVM through back constraints. In Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on Machine learning, pages 513?520. ACM, 2006. [11] A. Mantrach, L. Yen, J. Callut, K. Francoisse, M. Shimbo, and M. Saerens. The sum-over-paths covariance kernel: A novel covariance measure between nodes of a directed graph. PAMI, 32(6):1112?1126, 2010. [12] B.K. ?ksendal. Stochastic differential equations: an introduction with applications. Springer Verlag, 2003. [13] P. Vernaza, D.D. Lee, and S.J. Yi. Learning and planning high-dimensional physical trajectories via structured lagrangians. In ICRA, pages 846?852. IEEE, 2010. [14] J. Wang, D. Fleet, and A. Hertzmann. Gaussian process dynamical models. NIPS, 18:1441, 2006. [15] Brian D. Ziebart, Andrew Maas, J. Andrew Bagnell, and Anind K. Dey. Maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning. In AAAI, pages 1433?1438, 2008. 9
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Parametric Local Metric Learning for Nearest Neighbor Classification Adam Woznica Department of Computer Science University of Geneva Switzerland [email protected] Jun Wang Department of Computer Science University of Geneva Switzerland [email protected] Alexandros Kalousis Department of Business Informatics University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland [email protected] Abstract We study the problem of learning local metrics for nearest neighbor classification. Most previous works on local metric learning learn a number of local unrelated metrics. While this ?independence? approach delivers an increased flexibility its downside is the considerable risk of overfitting. We present a new parametric local metric learning method in which we learn a smooth metric matrix function over the data manifold. Using an approximation error bound of the metric matrix function we learn local metrics as linear combinations of basis metrics defined on anchor points over different regions of the instance space. We constrain the metric matrix function by imposing on the linear combinations manifold regularization which makes the learned metric matrix function vary smoothly along the geodesics of the data manifold. Our metric learning method has excellent performance both in terms of predictive power and scalability. We experimented with several largescale classification problems, tens of thousands of instances, and compared it with several state of the art metric learning methods, both global and local, as well as to SVM with automatic kernel selection, all of which it outperforms in a significant manner. 1 Introduction The nearest neighbor (NN) classifier is one of the simplest and most classical non-linear classification algorithms. It is guaranteed to yield an error no worse than twice the Bayes error as the number of instances approaches infinity. With finite learning instances, its performance strongly depends on the use of an appropriate distance measure. Mahalanobis metric learning [4, 15, 9, 10, 17, 14] improves the performance of the NN classifier if used instead of the Euclidean metric. It learns a global distance metric which determines the importance of the different input features and their correlations. However, since the discriminatory power of the input features might vary between different neighborhoods, learning a global metric cannot fit well the distance over the data manifold. Thus a more appropriate way is to learn a metric on each neighborhood and local metric learning [8, 3, 15, 7] does exactly that. It increases the expressive power of standard Mahalanobis metric learning by learning a number of local metrics (e.g. one per each instance). 1 Local metric learning has been shown to be effective for different learning scenarios. One of the first local metric learning works, Discriminant Adaptive Nearest Neighbor classification [8], DANN, learns local metrics by shrinking neighborhoods in directions orthogonal to the local decision boundaries and enlarging the neighborhoods parallel to the boundaries. It learns the local metrics independently with no regularization between them which makes it prone to overfitting. The authors of LMNN-Multiple Metric (LMNN-MM) [15] significantly limited the number of learned metrics and constrained all instances in a given region to share the same metric in an effort to combat overfitting. In the supervised setting they fixed the number of metrics to the number of classes; a similar idea has been also considered in [3]. However, they too learn the metrics independently for each region making them also prone to overfitting since the local metrics will be overly specific to their respective regions. The authors of [16] learn local metrics using a least-squares approach by minimizing a weighted sum of the distances of each instance to apriori defined target positions and constraining the instances in the projected space to preserve the original geometric structure of the data in an effort to alleviate overfitting. However, the method learns the local metrics using a learning-order-sensitive propagation strategy, and depends heavily on the appropriate definition of the target positions for each instance, a task far from obvious. In another effort to overcome the overfitting problem of the discriminative methods [8, 15], Generative Local Metric Learning, GLML, [11], propose to learn local metrics by minimizing the NN expected classification error under strong model assumptions. They use the Gaussian distribution to model the learning instances of each class. However, the strong model assumptions might easily be very inflexible for many learning problems. In this paper we propose the Parametric Local Metric Learning method (PLML) which learns a smooth metric matrix function over the data manifold. More precisely, we parametrize the metric matrix of each instance as a linear combination of basis metric matrices of a small set of anchor points; this parametrization is naturally derived from an error bound on local metric approximation. Additionally we incorporate a manifold regularization on the linear combinations, forcing the linear combinations to vary smoothly over the data manifold. We develop an efficient two stage algorithm that first learns the linear combinations of each instance and then the metric matrices of the anchor points. To improve scalability and efficiency we employ a fast first-order optimization algorithm, FISTA [2], to learn the linear combinations as well as the basis metrics of the anchor points. We experiment with the PLML method on a number of large scale classification problems with tens of thousands of learning instances. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that PLML significantly improves the predictive performance over the current state-of-the-art metric learning methods, as well as over multi-class SVM with automatic kernel selection. 2 Preliminaries We denote by X the n?d matrix of learning instances, the i-th row of which is the xTi ? Rd instance, and by y = (y1 , . . . , yn )T , yi ? {1, . . . , c} the vector of class labels. The squared Mahalanobis distance between two instances in the input space is given by: d2M (xi , xj ) = (xi ? xj )T M(xi ? xj ) where M is a PSD metric matrix (M  0). A linear metric learning method learns a Mahalanobis metric M by optimizing some cost function under the PSD constraints for M and a set of additional constraints on the pairwise instance distances. Depending on the actual metric learning method, different kinds of constraints on pairwise distances are used. The most successful ones are the large margin triplet constraints. A triplet constraint denoted by c(xi , xj , xk ), indicates that in the projected space induced by M the distance between xi and xj should be smaller than the distance between xi and xk . Very often a single metric M can not model adequately the complexity of a given learning problem in which discriminative features vary between different neighborhoods. To address this limitation in local metric learning we learn a set of local metrics. In most cases we learn a local metric for each learning instance [8, 11], however we can also learn a local metric for some part of the instance space in which case the number of learned metrics can be considerably smaller than n, e.g. [15]. We follow the former approach and learn one local metric per instance. In principle, distances should then be defined as geodesic distances using the local metric on a Riemannian manifold. However, this is computationally difficult, thus we define the distance between instances xi and xj as: d2Mi (xi , xj ) = (xi ? xj )T Mi (xi ? xj ) 2 where Mi is the local metric of instance xi . Note that most often the local metric Mi of instance xi is different from that of xj . As a result, the distance d2Mi (xi , xj ) does not satisfy the symmetric property, i.e. it is not a proper metric. Nevertheless, in accordance to the standard practice we will continue to use the term local metric learning following [15, 11]. 3 Parametric Local Metric Learning We assume that there exists a Lipschitz smooth vector-valued function f (x), the output of which is the vectorized local metric matrix of instance x. Learning the local metric of each instance is essentially learning the value of this function at different points over the data manifold. In order to significantly reduce the computational complexity we will approximate the metric function instead of directly learning it. Definition 1 A vector-valued function f (x) on Rd is a (?, ?, p)-Lipschitz smooth function with respect to a vector norm k?k if kf (x) ? f (x0 )k ? ? kx ? x0 k and 0 0 T 0 f (x) ? f (x ) ? ?f (x ) (x ? x ) ? ? kx ? x0 k1+p , where ?f (x0 )T is the derivative of the f function at x0 . We assume ?, ? > 0 and p ? (0, 1]. [18] have shown that any Lipschitz smooth real function f (x) defined on a lower dimensional manifold can be approximated by a linear combination of function values f (u), u ? U, of a set U of anchor points. Based on this result we have the following lemma that gives the respective error bound for learning a Lipschitz smooth vector-valued function. Lemma 1 Let (?, U) be a nonnegative weighting on anchor points U in Rd . Let f be an (?, ?, p)Lipschitz smooth vector function. We have for all x ? Rd : X X X 1+p ?u (x)f (u) ? ? x ? ?u (x)u + ? ?u (x) kx ? uk (1) f (x) ? u?U u?U u?U The proof of the above Lemma 1 is similar to the proof of Lemma 2.1 in [18]; for lack of space we omit its presentation. By the nonnegative weighting strategy (?, U), the PSD constraints on the approximated local metric is automatically satisfied if the local metrics of anchor points are PSD matrices. Lemma 1 suggests a natural way to approximate the local metric function by parameterizing the metric Mi of each instance xi as a weighted linear combination, Wi ? Rm , of a small set of metric basis, {Mb1 , . . . , Mbm }, each one associated with an anchor point defined in some region of the instance space. This parametrization will also provide us with a global way to regularize the flexibility of the metric function. We will first learn the vector of weights Wi for each instance xi , and then the basis metric matrices; these two together, will give us the Mi metric for the instance xi . More formally, we define a m ? d matrix U of anchor points, the i-th row of which is the anchor point ui , where uTi ? Rd . We denote by Mbi the Mahalanobis metric matrix associated with ui . The anchor points can be defined using some clustering algorithm, we have chosen to define them as the means of clusters constructed by the k-means algorithm. The local metric Mi of an instance xi is parametrized by: X X Mi = Wibk Mbk , Wibk ? 0, Wibk = 1 (2) bk bk where W is a n ? m weight matrix, and its Wibk entry is the weight of the basis metric Mbk for P the instance xi . The constraint bk Wibk = 1 removes the scaling problem between different local metrics. Using the parametrization of equation (2), the squared distance of xi to xj under the metric Mi is: X d2Mi (xi , xj ) = Wibk d2Mb (xi , xj ) (3) k bk where d2Mb (xi , xj ) is the squared Mahalanobis distance between xi and xj under the basis metric k Mbk . We will show in the next section how to learn the weights of the basis metrics for each instance and in section 3.2 how to learn the basis metrics. 3 Algorithm 1 Smoothl Local Linear Weight Learning Input: W0 , X, U, G, L, ?1 , and ?2 Output: matrix W 2 define ge?,Y (W) = g(Y) + tr(?g(Y)T (W ? Y)) + ?2 kW ? YkF 1 0 initialize: t1 = 1, ? = 1,Y = W , and i = 0 repeat i = i + 1, Wi = P roj((Yi ? ?1 ?g(Yi ))) while g(Wi ) > ge?,Yi (Wi ) do ? = 2?, Wi = P roj((Yi ? ?1 ?g(Yi ))) end while ? 1+ 1+4t2i ?1 ti+1 = , Yi+1 = Wi + ttii+1 (Wi ? Wi?1 ) 2 until converges; 3.1 Smooth Local Linear Weighting Lemma 1 bounds the approximation error by two terms. The first term states that x should be close to its linear approximation, and the second that the weighting should be local. In addition we want the local metrics to vary smoothly over the data manifold. To achieve this smoothness we rely on manifold regularization and constrain the weight vectors of neighboring instances to be similar. Following this reasoning we will learn Smooth Local Linear Weights for the basis metrics by minimizing the error bound of (1) together with a regularization term that controls the weight variation 2 P of similar instances. To simplify the objective function, we use the term x ? u?U ?u (x)u P instead of x ? u?U ?u (x)u . By including the constraints on the W weight matrix in (2), the optimization problem is given by: min g(W) W s.t. = 2 kX ? WUkF + ?1 tr(WG) + ?2 tr(WT LW) X Wibk ? 0, Wibk = 1, ?i, bk (4) bk where tr(?) and k?kF denote respectively the trace norm of a square matrix and the Frobenius norm of a matrix. The m ? n matrix G is the squared distance matrix between each anchor point ui and each instance xj , obtained for p = 1 in (1), i.e. its (i, j) entry is the squared Euclidean distance between ui and xj . L is the n ? n Laplacian matrix constructed by D ? S, where S is the n ? n symmetric pairwise similarity matrix of learning instances and D is a diagonal matrix with Dii = P T k Sik . Thus the minimization of the tr(W LW) term constrains similar instances to have similar weight coefficients. The minimization of the tr(WG) term forces the weights of the instances to reflect their local properties. Most often the similarity matrix S is constructed using k-nearest neighbors graph [19]. The ?1 and ?2 parameters control the importance of the different terms. Since the cost function g(W) is convex quadratic with W and the constraint is simply linear, (4) is a convex optimization problem with a unique optimal solution. The constraints on W in (4) can be seen as n simplex constraints on each row of W; we will use the projected gradient method to solve the optimization problem. At each iteration t, the learned weight matrix W is updated by: Wt+1 = P roj(Wt ? ??g(Wt )) (5) where ? > 0 is the step size and ?g(Wt ) is the gradient of the cost function g(W) at Wt . The P roj(?) denotes the simplex projection operator on each row of W. Such a projection operator can be efficiently implemented with a complexity of O(nm log(m)) [6]. To speed up the optimization procedure we employ a fast first-order optimization method FISTA, [2]. The detailed algorithm is described in Algorithm 1. The Lipschitz constant ? required by this algorithm is estimated by using the condition of g(Wi ) ? ge?,Yi (Wi ) [1]. At each iteration, the main computations are in the gradient and the objective value with complexity O(nmd + n2 m). To set the weights of the basis metrics for a testing instance we can optimize (4) given the weight of the basis metrics for the training instances. Alternatively we can simply set them as the weights of its nearest neighbor in the training instances. In the experiments we used the latter approach. 4 3.2 Large Margin Basis Metric Learning In this section we define a large margin based algorithm to learn the basis metrics Mb1 , . . . , Mbm . Given the W weight matrix of basis metrics obtained using Algorithm 1, the local metric Mi of an instance xi defined in (2) is linear with respect to the basis metrics Mb1 , . . . , Mbm . We define the relative comparison distance of instances xi , xj and xk as: d2Mi (xi , xk ) ? d2Mi (xi , xj ). In a large margin constraint c(xi , xj , xk ), the squared distance d2Mi (xi , xk ) is required to be larger than d2Mi (xi , xj ) + 1, otherwise an error ? ijk ? 0 is generated. Note that, this relative comparison definition is different from that defined in LMNN-MM [15]. In LMNN-MM to avoid over-fitting, different local metrics Mj and Mk are used to compute the squared distance d2Mj (xi , xj ) and d2Mk (xi , xk ) respectively, as no smoothness constraint is added between metrics of different local regions. Given a set of triplet constraints, we learn the basis metrics Mb1 , . . . , Mbm with the following optimization problem: XX X X min ?1 ||Mbl ||2F + ? ijk + ?2 Wibl d2Mb (xi , xj ) (6) Mb1 ,...,Mbm ,? l bl X s.t. ij ijk bl Wibl (d2Mb (xi , xk ) ? d2Mb (xi , xj )) ? 1 ? ? ijk ?i, j, k l l bl ? ijk ? 0; ?i, j, k Mbl  0; ?bl where ?1 and ?2 are parameters that balance the importance of the different terms. The large margin triplet constraints for each instance are generated using its k1 same class nearest neighbors and k2 different class nearest neighbors by requiring its distances to the k2 different class instances to be larger than those to its k1 same class instances. In the objective function of (6) the basis metrics are learned by minimizing the sum of large margin errors and the sum of squared pairwise distances of each instance to its k1 nearest neighbors computed using the local metric. Unlike LMNN we add the squared Frobenius norm on each basis metrics in the objective function. We do this for two reasons. First we exploit the connection between LMNN and SVM shown in [5] under which the squared Frobenius norm of the metric matrix is related to the SVM margin. Second because adding this term leads to an easy-to-optimize dual formulation of (6) [12]. Unlike many special solvers which optimize the primal form of the metric learning problem [15, 13], we follow [12] and optimize the Lagrangian dual problem of (6). The dual formulation leads to an efficient basis metric learning algorithm. Introducing the Lagrangian dual multipliers ? ijk , pijk and the PSD matrices Zbl to respectively associate with every large margin triplet constraints, ? ijk ? 0 and the PSD constraints Mbl  0 in (6), we can easily derive the following Lagrangian dual form X max Zb1 ,...,Zbm ,? ijk ?ijk ? X X X 1 ? kZbl + ?ijk Wibl Cijk ? ?2 Wibl Aij k2F 4?1 ij (7) ijk bl 1 ? ?ijk ? 0; ?i,j,k Zbl  0; ?bl s.t. P (Z? + ? ? Wib Cijk ??2 P Wib Aij ) ijk ijk ij l l and the corresponding optimality conditions: M?bl = bl and 2?1 1 ? ?ijk ? 0, where the matrices Aij and Cijk are given by xTij xij and xTik xik ?xTij xij respectively, where xij = xi ? xj . Compared to the primal form, the main advantage of the dual formulation is that the second term in the objective function of (7) has a P closed-form solution P for Zbl given a fixed ?. To drive the optimal solution of Zbl , let Kbl = ?2 ij Wibl Aij ? ijk ?ijk Wibl Cijk . Then, given a fixed ?, the optimal solution of Zbl is Z?bl = (Kbl )+ , where (Kbl )+ projects the matrix Kbl onto the PSD cone, i.e. (Kbl )+ = U[max(diag(?)), 0)]UT with Kbl = U?UT . Now, (7) is rewritten as: min ? s.t. g(?) = ? X ?ijk + ijk X 1 2 k(Kbl )+ ? Kbl kF 4?1 bl 1 ? ?ijk ? 0; ?i, j, k 5 (8) And the optimal condition for Mbl is M?bl = 2?1 1 ((K?bl )+ ? K?bl ). The gradient of the objective P function in (8), ?g(?ijk ), is given by: ?g(?ijk ) = ?1 + bl 2?1 1 h(Kbl )+ ? Kbl , Wibl Cijk i. At each iteration, ? is updated by: ? i+1 = BoxP roj(? i ? ??g(? i )) where ? > 0 is the step size. The BoxP roj(?) denotes the simple box projection operator on ? as specified in the constraints of (8). At each iteration, the main computational complexity lies in the computation of the eigendecomposition with a complexity of O(md3 ) and the computation of the gradient with a complexity of O(m(nd2 + cd)), where m is the number of basis metrics and c is the number of large margin triplet constraints. As in the weight learning problem the FISTA algorithm is employed to accelerate the optimization process; for lack of space we omit the algorithm presentation. 4 Experiments In this section we will evaluate the performance of PLML and compare it with a number of relevant baseline methods on six datasets with large number of instances, ranging from 5K to 70K instances; these datasets are Letter, USPS, Pendigits, Optdigits, Isolet and MNIST. We want to determine whether the addition of manifold regularization on the local metrics improves the predictive performance of local metric learning, and whether the local metric learning improves over learning with single global metric. We will compare PLML against six baseline methods. The first, SML, is a variant of PLML where a single global metric is learned, i.e. we set the number of basis in (6) to one. The second, Cluster-Based LML (CBLML), is also a variant of PLML without weight learning. Here we learn one local metric for each cluster and we assign a weight of one for a basis metric Mbi if the corresponding cluster of Mbi contains the instance, and zero otherwise. Finally, we also compare against four state of the art metric learning methods LMNN [15], BoostMetric [13]1 , GLML [11] and LMNN-MM [15]2 . The former two learn a single global metric and the latter two a number of local metrics. In addition to the different metric learning methods, we also compare PLML against multi-class SVMs in which we use the one-against-all strategy to determine the class label for multi-class problems and select the best kernel with inner cross validation. Since metric learning is computationally expensive for datasets with large number of features we followed [15] and reduced the dimensionality of the USPS, Isolet and MINIST datasets by applying PCA. In these datasets the retained PCA components explain 95% of their total variances. We preprocessed all datasets by first standardizing the input features, and then normalizing the instances to so that their L2-norm is one. PLML has a number of hyper-parameters. To reduce the computational time we do not tune ?1 and ?2 of the weight learning optimization problem (4), and we set them to their default values of ?1 = 1 and ?2 = 100. The Laplacian matrix L is constructed using the six nearest neighbors graph following [19]. The anchor points U are the means of clusters constructed with k-means clustering. The number m of anchor points, i.e. the number of basis metrics, depends on the complexity of the learning problem. More complex problems will often require a larger number of anchor points to better model the complexity of the data. As the number of classes in the examined datasets is 10 or 26, we simply set m = 20 for all datasets. In the basis metric learning problem (6), the number of the dual parameters ? is the same as the number of triplet constraints. To speedup the learning process, the triplet constraints are constructed only using the three same-class and the three different-class nearest neighbors for each learning instance. The parameter ?2 is set to 1, while the parameter ?1 is the only parameter that we select from the set {0.01, 0.1, 1, 10, 100} using 2-fold inner cross-validation. The above setting of basis metric learning for PLML is also used with the SML and CBLML methods. For LMNN and LMNN-MM we use their default settings, [15], in which the triplet constraints are constructed by the three nearest same-class neighbors and all different-class samples. As a result, the number of triplet constraints optimized in LMNN and LMNN-MM is much larger than those of PLML, SML, BoostMetric and CBLML. The local metrics are initialized by identity matrices. As in [11], GLML uses the Gaussian distribution to model the learning instances from the same class. Finally, we use the 1-NN rule to evaluate the performance of the different metric learning methods. In addition as we already mentioned we also compare against multi-class SVM. Since the performance of the latter depends heavily on the kernel with which it is coupled we do automatic kernel selection with inner cross validation to select the best 1 2 http://code.google.com/p/boosting http://www.cse.wustl.edu/?kilian/code/code.html. 6 (a) LMNN-MM (b) CBLML (c) GLML (d) PLML Figure 1: The visualization of learned local metrics of LMNN-MM, CBLML, GLML and PLML. Table 1: Accuracy results. The superscripts +?= next to the accuracies of PLML indicate the result of the McNemar?s statistical test with LMNN, BoostMetric, SML, CBLML, LMNN-MM, GMLM and SVM. They denote respectively a significant win, loss or no difference for PLML. The number in the parenthesis indicates the score of the respective algorithm for the given dataset based on the pairwise comparisons of the McNemar?s statistical test. Datasets Letter Pendigits Optdigits Isolet USPS MNIST Total Score PLML 97.22+++|+++|+ (7.0) 98.34+++|+++|+ (7.0) 97.72===|+++|= (5.0) 95.25=+=|+++|= (5.5) 98.26+++|+++|= (6.5) 97.30=++|+++|= (6.0) 37 Single Metric Learning Baselines LMNN BoostMetric SML 96.08(2.5) 97.43(2.0) 97.55(5.0) 95.51(5.5) 97.92(4.5) 97.30(6.0) 25.5 96.49(4.5) 97.43(2.5) 97.61(5.0) 89.16(2.5) 97.65(2.5) 96.03(2.5) 19.5 96.71(5.5) 97.80(4.5) 97.22(5.0) 94.68(5.5) 97.94(4.0) 96.57(4.0) 28.5 Local Metric Learning Baselines CBLML LMNN-MM GLML 95.82(2.5) 97.94(5.0) 95.94(1.5) 89.03(2.5) 96.22(0.5) 95.77(2.5) 14.5 95.02(1.0) 97.43(2.0) 95.94(1.5) 84.61(0.5) 97.90(4.0) 93.24(1.0) 10 93.86(0.0) 96.88(0.0) 94.82(0.0) 84.03(0.5) 96.05(0.5) 84.02(0.0) 1 SVM 96.64(5.0) 97.91(5.0) 97.33(5.0) 95.19(5.5) 98.19(5.5) 97.62(6.0) 32.5 kernel and parameter setting. The kernels were chosen from the set of linear, polynomial (degree 2,3 and 4), and Gaussian kernels; the width of the Gaussian kernel was set to the average of all pairwise distances. Its C parameter of the hinge loss term was selected from {0.1, 1, 10, 100}. To estimate the classification accuracy for Pendigits, Optdigits, Isolet and MNIST we used the default train and test split, for the other datasets we used 10-fold cross-validation. The statistical significance of the differences were tested with McNemar?s test with a p-value of 0.05. In order to get a better understanding of the relative performance of the different algorithms for a given dataset we used a simple ranking schema in which an algorithm A was assigned one point if it was found to have a statistically significantly better accuracy than another algorithm B, 0.5 points if the two algorithms did not have a significant difference, and zero points if A was found to be significantly worse than B. 4.1 Results In Table 1 we report the experimental results. PLML consistently outperforms the single global metric learning methods LMNN, BoostMetric and SML, for all datasets except Isolet on which its accuracy is slightly lower than that of LMNN. Depending on the single global metric learning method with which we compare it, it is significantly better in three, four, and five datasets ( for LMNN, SML, and BoostMetric respectively), out of the six and never singificantly worse. When we compare PLML with CBLML and LMNN-MM, the two baseline methods which learn one local metric for each cluster and each class respectively with no smoothness constraints, we see that it is statistically significantly better in all the datasets. GLML fails to learn appropriate metrics on all datasets because its fundamental generative model assumption is often not valid. Finally, we see that PLML is significantly better than SVM in two out of the six datasets and it is never significantly worse; remember here that with SVM we also do inner fold kernel selection to automatically select the appropriate feature speace. Overall PLML is the best performing methods scoring 37 points over the different datasets, followed by SVM with automatic kernel selection and SML which score 32.5 and 28.5 points respectively. The other metric learning methods perform rather poorly. Examining more closely the performance of the baseline local metric learning methods CBLML and LMNN-MM we observe that they tend to overfit the learning problems. This can be seen by their considerably worse performance with respect to that of SML and LMNN which rely on a single global model. On the other hand PLML even though it also learns local metrics it does not suffer from the overfitting problem due to the manifold regularization. The poor performance of LMNN7 (a) Letter (b) Pendigits (c) Optdigits (d) USPS (e) Isolet (f) MNIST Figure 2: Accuracy results of PLML and CBLML with varying number of basis metrics. MM is not in agreement with the results reported in [15]. The main reason for the difference is the experimental setting. In [15], 30% of the training instance of each dataset were used as a validation set to avoid overfitting. To provide a better understanding of the behavior of the learned metrics, we applied PLML LMNNMM, CBLML and GLML, on an image dataset containing instances of four different handwritten digits, zero, one, two, and four, from the MNIST dataset. As in [15], we use the two main principal components to learn. Figure 1 shows the learned local metrics by plotting the axis of their corresponding ellipses(black line). The direction of the longer axis is the more discriminative. Clearly PLML fits the data much better than LMNN-MM and as expected its local metrics vary smoothly. In terms of the predictive performance, PLML has the best with 82.76% accuracy. The CBLML, LMNN-MM and GLML have an almost identical performance with respective accuracies of 82.59%, 82.56% and 82.51%. Finally we investigated the sensitivity of PLML and CBLML to the number of basis metrics, we experimented with m ? {5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40}. The results are given in Figure 2. We see that the predictive performance of PLML often improves as we increase the number of the basis metrics. Its performance saturates when the number of basis metrics becomes sufficient to model the underlying training data. As expected different learning problems require different number of basis metrics. PLML does not overfit on any of the datasets. In contrast, the performance of CBLML gets worse when the number of basis metrics is large which provides further evidence that CBLML does indeed overfit the learning problems, demonstrating clearly the utility of the manifold regularization. 5 Conclusions Local metric learning provides a more flexible way to learn the distance function. However they are prone to overfitting since the number of parameters they learn can be very large. In this paper we presented PLML, a local metric learning method which regularizes local metrics to vary smoothly over the data manifold. Using an approximation error bound of the metric matrix function, we parametrize the local metrics by a weighted linear combinations of local metrics of anchor points. Our method scales to learning problems with tens of thousands of instances and avoids the overfitting problems that plague the other local metric learning methods. The experimental results show that PLML outperforms significantly the state of the art metric learning methods and it has a performance which is significantly better or equivalent to that of SVM with automatic kernel selection. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the Swiss NSF (Grant 200021-137949). The support of EU projects DebugIT (FP7-217139) and e-LICO (FP7-231519), as well as that of COST Action BM072 (?Urine and Kidney Proteomics?) is also gratefully acknowledged. 8 References [1] F. Bach, R. Jenatton, J. Mairal, and G. Obozinski. Convex optimization with sparsity-inducing norms. Optimization for Machine Learning. [2] A. Beck and M. Teboulle. Gradient-based algorithms with applications to signal-recovery problems. Convex Optimization in Signal Processing and Communications, pages 42?88, 2010. [3] M. Bilenko, S. Basu, and R.J. Mooney. Integrating constraints and metric learning in semisupervised clustering. In ICML, page 11, 2004. [4] J.V. Davis, B. Kulis, P. Jain, S. Sra, and I.S. Dhillon. Information-theoretic metric learning. In ICML, 2007. [5] H. Do, A. Kalousis, J. Wang, and A. Woznica. A metric learning perspective of svm: on the relation of svm and lmnn. AISTATS, 2012. [6] J. Duchi, S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and T. Chandra. Efficient projections onto the l 1-ball for learning in high dimensions. In ICML, 2008. [7] A. Frome, Y. Singer, and J. Malik. Image retrieval and classification using local distance functions. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 19, pages 417?424. MIT Press, 2007. [8] T. Hastie and R. Tibshirani. Discriminant adaptive nearest neighbor classification. 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MAP Inference in Chains using Column Generation David Belanger?, Alexandre Passos?, Sebastian Riedel?, Andrew McCallum Department of Computer Science, University of Massachusetts, Amherst ? Department of Computer Science, University College London {belanger,apassos,mccallum}@cs.umass.edu, [email protected] Abstract Linear chains and trees are basic building blocks in many applications of graphical models, and they admit simple exact maximum a-posteriori (MAP) inference algorithms based on message passing. However, in many cases this computation is prohibitively expensive, due to quadratic dependence on variables? domain sizes. The standard algorithms are inefficient because they compute scores for hypotheses for which there is strong negative local evidence. For this reason there has been significant previous interest in beam search and its variants; however, these methods provide only approximate results. This paper presents new exact inference algorithms based on the combination of column generation and pre-computed bounds on terms of the model?s scoring function. While we do not improve worst-case performance, our method substantially speeds real-world, typical-case inference in chains and trees. Experiments show our method to be twice as fast as exact Viterbi for Wall Street Journal part-of-speech tagging and over thirteen times faster for a joint part-of-speed and named-entity-recognition task. Our algorithm is also extendable to new techniques for approximate inference, to faster 0/1 loss oracles, and new opportunities for connections between inference and learning. We encourage further exploration of high-level reasoning about the optimization problem implicit in dynamic programs. 1 Introduction Many uses of graphical models either directly employ chains or tree structures?as in part-of-speech tagging?or employ them to enable inference in more complex models?as in junction trees and tree block coordinate descent [1]. Traditional message-passing inference in these structures requires an amount of computation dependent on the product of the domain sizes of variables sharing an edge in the graph. Even in chains, exact inference is prohibitive in tasks with large domains due to the quadratic dependence on domain size. For this reason, many practitioners rely on beam search or other approximate inference techniques [2]. However, inference by beam search is approximate. This not only hurts test-time accuracy, but can also interfere with parameter estimation [3]. We present a new algorithm for exact MAP inference in chains that is substantially faster than Viterbi in the typical case. We draw on four key ideas: (1) it is wasteful to compute and store messages to and from low-scoring states, (2) it is possible to compute bounds on data-independent (not varying with the input data) scores of the model offline, (3) inference should make decisions based on local evidence for variables? values and rely on the graph only for disambiguation [4], and (4) runtime behavior should adapt to the cost structure of the model (i.e., the algorithm should be energy-aware [5]). The combination of these ideas yields provably exact MAP inference for chains and trees that can be more than an order of magnitude faster than traditional methods. Our algorithm has wideranging applicability, and we believe it could beneficially replace many traditional uses of Viterbi and beam search. ? The first two authors contributed equally to this paper. 1 We exploit the connections between message-passing algorithms and LP relaxations for MAP inference. Directly solving LP relaxations for MAP using a state-of-the-art solver is inefficient because it ignores key structure of the problem [6]. However, it is possible to leverage message-passing as a fast subroutine to solve smaller LPs, and use high-level techniques to compose these solutions into a solution to the original problem. With this interplay in mind, we employ column generation [7], a family of approaches to solving linear programs that are dual to cutting planes: they start by solving restricted primal problems, where many LP variables are set to zero, and slowly add other LP variables until they are able to prove that adding no other variable can improve the solution. From these properties of column generation, we also show how to perform approximate inference that is guaranteed not to be worse than the optimal by a given gap, how to construct an efficient 0/1-loss oracle by running 2-best inference in a subset of the graphical model, and how to learn parameters in such a way to make inference even faster. The use of column generation has not been widely explored or appreciated in graphical models. This paper is intended to demonstrate its benefits and encourage further work in this direction. We demonstrate experimentally that our method has substantial speed advantages while retaining guaranteed exact inference. In Wall Street Journal part-of-speech tagging our method is more than 2.5 times faster than Viterbi, and also faster than beam search with a width of two. In joint POS tagging and named entity recognition, our method is thirteen times faster than Viterbi and also faster than beam search with a width of seven. 2 Delayed Column Generation in LPs In LPs used for combinatorial optimization problems, we know a priori that there are optimal solutions in which many variables will be set to zero. This is enforced by the problem?s constraints or it characterizes optimality (e.g., the solution to a shortest path LP would not include multiple paths). Column generation is a technique for exploiting this sparsity for faster inference. It restricts an LP to a subset of its variables (implicitly setting the others to zero) and alternates between solving this restricted linear program and selecting which variables should be added to it, based on whether they could potentially improve the objective. When no candidates remain, the current solution to the restricted problem is guaranteed to be the exact solution of the unrestricted problem. The test to determine whether un-generated variables could potentially improve the objective is whether their reduced cost is positive, which is also the test employed by some pivoting rules in the simplex algorithm [8, 7]. The difference between the algorithms is that simplex enumerates primal variables explicitly, while column generation ?generates? them only as needed. The key to an efficient column generation algorithm is an oracle that can either prove that no variable with positive reduced cost exists or produce one. Consider the general LP: max. cT x s.t. Ax ? b, x?0 (1) With corresponding Lagrangian:  L(x, ?) = cT x + ?t (b ? Ax) = ?i ci ? ATi ? xi + ?t b. (2) For a given assignment to the dual variables ?, a variable xi is a candidate for being added to the restricted problem if its reduced cost ri = ci ? ATi ?, the scalar multiplying it in the Lagrangian, is positive. Another way to justify this decision rule is by considering the constraints in the LP dual: min. bT ? AT ? ? c s.t. ??0 (3) Here, the reduced cost of a primal variable equals the degree to which its dual constraint is violated, and thus column generation in the primal is equivalent to cutting planes in the dual [7]. If there is no variable of positive reduced cost, then the current dual variables from the restricted problem are feasible in the unrestricted problem, and thus we have a primal-dual optimal pair, and can terminate column generation. An advantageous property of column generation that we employ later on is that it maintains primal feasibility across iterations, and thus it can be halted to provide approximate, anytime solutions. 2 3 Connection Between LP Relaxations and Message-Passing in Chains This section provides background showing how the LP formulation of the inference problem in chains leads to the known message-passing algorithm. The derivation follows Wainwright and Jordan [9], but is specialized for chains and highlights connections to our contributions. The LP for MAP inference in chains is as follows P P max. ? (x )? (x ) + i,xi ,xi+1 ?i (xi , xi+1 )? (xi , xi+1 ) Pi,xi i i i i s.t. Pxi ?i (xi ) = 1 ?i ? (x , x ) = ? (x ) ?i, xi+1 i i i+1 i+1 i+1 Pxi ? (x , x ) = ? (x ) ?i, xi i i i+1 i i xi+1 (4) where ?i (xi ) is the score obtained from assigning the i-th variable to value xi , ?i (xi ) is an indicator variable saying whether or not the MAP assignment sets the i-th variable to the value xi , and ? (xi , xi+1 ) is the score the model assigns to a transition from value xi to value xi+1 . It?s implicitly assumed that all variables are positive. We assume a static ? , but all statements trivially generalize to position-dependent ?i . We can restructure this LP to only depend on the pairwise assignment variables ?i (xi , xi+1 ) by creating an edge between the last variable in the chain and an artificial variable and then ?billing? all local scores to the pairwise edge that touches them from the right. Then we restructure the constraints to sum out both sides of each edge, and add indicator variables ?n (xn , ?) and 0-scoring transitions for the artificial edge. This leaves the following LP (with dual variables written after their corresponding constraints). P max. ? (x , x )(? (x , x ) + ?i (xi )) Pi,xi ,xi+1 i i i+1 i i i+1 s.t. Pxn ?n (xn , ?) = 1 (N ) (5) P (?i (xi )) xi?1 ?i?1 (xi?1 , xi ) = xi+1 ?i (xi , xi+1 ) The dual of this linear program is min. s.t. N ?i+1 (xi+1 ) ? ?i (xi ) ? ? (xi , xi+1 ) + ?i (xi ) ?i, xi , xi+1 N ? ?n (xn ) ? ?n (xn ) ?xn (6) and setting the ? dual variables by ?i+1 (xi+1 ) = max ?i (xi ) + ?i (xi ) + ? (xi , xi+1 ) xi (7) and N = maxxn ?n (xn ) + ?n (xn ) is a sufficient condition for dual feasibility, and as N will have the value of the primal solution, for optimality. Note that this equation is exactly the forward message-passing equation for max-product belief propagation in chains, i.e. the Viterbi algorithm. A setting of the dual variables is optimal if maximization of the problem?s Lagrangian over the primal variables yields a primal-feasible setting. The coefficients on the edge variables ?i (xi , xi+1 ) are their reduced costs, ?i (xi ) ? ?i+1 (xi+1 ) + ?i (xi ) + ? (xi , xi+1 ). (8) For duals that obey the constraints of (6), it is clear that the maximal reduced cost is zero, when xi is set to the argmax used when constructing ?i+1 (xi+1 ). Therefore, to a obtain a primal-optimal solution, we start at the end of the chain and follow the argmax indices to the beginning, which is the same backward sweep of the Viterbi algorithm. 3.1 Improving the reduced cost with information from both ends of the chain Column generation adds all variables with positive reduced cost to the restricted LP, but equation (8) leads to an inefficient algorithm because it is positive for many irrelevant edge settings. In (8), the only terms that involve xi+1 are ? (xi , xi+1 ) and the ? (x0i , xi+1 ) term that is part of ?i+1 (xi+1 ). These are data-independent. Therefore, even if there is very strong local evidence against a particular 3 setting xi+1 , pairs xi , xi+1 may have positive reduced cost if the global transition factor ? (xi , xi+1 ) places positive weight on their compatibility. We can improve upon this by exploring different LP formulations than that of Wainwright and Jordan. Note that in equation (5) a local score is ?billed? to its rightmost edge. Instead, if we split it halfway (now using phantom edges in both sides of the chain), we would obtain slightly different message passing rules and the following reduced cost expression: 1 ?i (xi ) ? ?i+1 (xi+1 ) + (?i (xi ) + ?j (xj )) + ? (xi , xi+1 ). (9) 2 This contains local information for both xi and xi+1 , though it halves the magnitude of it. In table 2 we demonstrate that this yields comparable performance to using the reduced cost of (8), which still outperforms Viterbi. An even better reduced cost expression can be obtained by duplicating the marginalization constraints, we have:  P max. ?i (xi , xi+1 ) ? (xi , xi+1 ) + 21 ?i (xi ) + 21 ?i+1 (xi+1 ) i,x ,x i i+1 P s.t. Pxn ?n (xn , ?) = 1 (N + ) ? ? (?, x ) = 1 (N ) (10) 1 Px1 0 P ? (x , x ) = ? (x , x ) (? (x i?1 i?1 i i i i+1 i i )) x x i?1 i+1 P P (?i (xi )) xi+1 ?i (xi , xi+1 ) = xi?1 ?i?1 (xi?1 , xi ) Following similar logic as in the previous section, setting the dual variables according to (7) and ?i?1 (xi?1 ) = max ?i (xi ) + ?i (xi ) + ?( xi?1 , xi ) (11) xi is a sufficient condition for optimality. In effect, we solve the LP of equation (10) in two independent procedures, each solving the onedirectional subproblem in (6), and either one of these subroutines is sufficient to construct a primal optimal solution. This redundancy is important, though, because the resulting reduced cost 2Ri (xi , xi+1 ) = 2? (xi , xi+1 ) + ?i (xi ) + ?i+1 (xi+1 ) + (?i (xi ) ? ?i+1 (xi+1 )) + (?i+1 (xi+1 ) ? ?i (xi )) . (12) incorporates global information from both directions in the chain. In table 2 we show that column generation with (12) is fastest, which is not obvious, given the extra overhead of computing the ? messages. This is the reduced cost that we use in the following discussion and experiments, unless explicitly stated otherwise. 4 Column Generation Algorithm We present an algorithm for exact MAP inference that in practice is usually faster than traditional message passing. Like all column generation algorithms, our technique requires components for three tasks: choosing the initial set of variables in the restricted LP, solving the restricted LP, and finding variables with positive reduced cost. When no variable of positive reduced cost exists, the current solution to the restricted problem is optimal because we have a primal-feasible, dual-feasible pair. Pseudocode for our algorithm is provided in Figure 1. In the following description, many concepts will be explained in terms of nodes, despite our LP being defined over edges. The edge quantities can be defined in terms of node quantities, such as the ? and ? messages, and it is more efficient to store these than the quadratically-many edge quantities. 4.1 Initialization To initialize the LP, we first define a restricted domain for each node in the graphical model consisting of only xL i = argmax ?i (xi ). Other initialization strategies, such as adding the high-scoring transitions, or the k best xi , are also valid. Next, we include in the initial restricted LP all the indicaL tor variables ?i (xL i , xi+1 ) corresponding to these size-one domains. Solving the initial restricted LP is very efficient, since all nodes have only one valid setting, and no maximization is needed when passing messages. 4 4.2 Warm-Starting the Restricted LP Updating all messages using the max-product rules of equations (7) and (11) is a valid way to solve the restricted LP, but it doesn?t leverage the messages that were optimal for previous calls to the problem. In practice, the restricted domains of every node are not updated at every iteration, and hence many of the previous messages may still appear in a dual-optimal setting of the current restricted problem. As usual, solving the restricted LP, can be decomposed into independently solving each of the one-directional LPs, and thus we update ? independently of ?. To construct a primal setting from either the ? or ? messages, we employ the standard technique of back-tracing the argmaxes used in their update equations. In some regions of the chain, we can avoid updating messages because we can guarantee that the proposed message updates would yield the same maximization and thus the same primal setting. Simple rules include, for example, avoiding updating ? to the left of the first updated domain and to avoid updating ?i (?) if |Di?1 |= 1, since maximization over |Di?1 | is trivial. Furthermore, to the right of the the last updated domain, if we compute new messages ?i0 (?) and find that the argmax at the current MAP assignment x?i doesn?t change, we can revert to the previous ?i (?) and terminate message passing. An analogous statement can be made about the ? variables. When solving the restricted LP, some constraints are trivially satisfied because they only involve variables that are implicitly set to zero, and hence the corresponding dual variables can be set arbitrarily. To prevent extraneous un-generated variables from having a high reduced cost, we choose duals by guessing values that should be feasible in the unrestricted LP, with a smaller computational cost than solving the unrestricted LP directly. We employ the same update equation used for the in-domain messages in (7) and (11), and maximize over the restricted domain of the variable?s neighbor. In our experiments, over 90% of the restricted domains were of size 1, so this dependence on the size of the neighbor domain was not a computational bottleneck in practice, and still allowed the reduced-cost oracle to consider five or less candidate edges in each iteration in more than 86% of the calls. 4.3 Reduced-Cost Oracle Exhaustively searching the chain for variables of positive reduced cost by iterating over all settings of all edges would be as expensive as exact max-product message-passing. However, our oracle search strategy is efficient because it prunes these away using precomputed bounds on the transitions. First we decompose equation (12) as follows 2Ri (xi , xi+1 ) = 2? (xi , xi+1 ) + Si+ (xi ) + Si? (xi+1 ) (13) where Si+ (xi ) = ?i (xi )+?i (xi )??i (xi ) and Si? (xi+1 ) = ?i+1 (xi+1 )??i+1 (xi+1 )+?i+1 (xi+1 ). If in practice, most settings for each edge have negative reduced cost, we can efficiently find candidate settings by first upper-bounding Si+ (xi ) + 2? (xi , xi+1 ), finding all possible values xi+1 that could yield a positive reduced cost, and then doing the reverse. Finally, we search over the much smaller set of candidates for xi and xi+1 . This strategy is described in Figure 1. After the first round of column generation, if Ri (xi , xi+1 ) hasn?t changed for every xi , xi+1 , then no variables of positive reduced cost can exist because they would have been added in the previous iteration, and we can skip the oracle. This condition can be checked while passing messages. Lastly, a final pruning strategy is that if there are settings xi , x0i such that ?i (xi ) + min ? (xi?1 , xi ) + min ? (xi , xi+1 ) > ?i (x0i ) + max ? (xi?1 , x0i ) + max ? (x0i , xi+1 ), (14) xi?1 xi+1 xi?1 xi+1 then we know with certainty that setting x0i is suboptimal. This helps prune the oracle?s search space efficiently because the above maxima and minima are data-independent offline computations. We can do so by first linearly searching through the labels for a node for the one with highest local score and then using precomputed bounds on the transition scores to linearly discard states whose upper bound on the score is smaller than the lower bound of the best state. 5 : Algorithm: CG-Infer : Algorithm: ReducedCostOracle(i) begin for i = 1 ? n do Di = {argmax ?i (xi )} end while domains haven?t converged do (?, ?) ? GetM essages(D, ?) for i = 1 ? n do ? Di? , Di+1 ? ReducedCostOracle(i) Di ? Di ? Di? ? Di+1 ? Di+1 ? Di+1 end end end begin U? (?, xj ) ? maxxi ? (xi , xj ) U? (xi , ?) ? maxxj ? (xi , xj ) Ui ? maxxi Si+ (xi ) Ci0 ? {xj |Si? (xj ) + Ui + 2U? (?, xj ) > 0} Ui0 ? maxxi+i ?Ci0 Si? (xj ) Ci ? {xi |Si+ (xi ) + Ui0 + 2U? (xi , ?) > 0} D ?D0 ? {xi , xj ? Ci , Ci0 |R(xi , xj ) > 0} return D, D0 end Figure 1: Column Generation Algorithm and Pruning Strategy for Reduced Cost Oracle 5 Extensions of the Algorithm The column generation algorithm is fairly general, and can be easily extended to allow for many interesting use cases. In section 7 we provide experiments supporting the usefulness of these extensions, and they are described in more detail in appendix A. First of all, our algorithm generalizes easily to MAP inference in trees by using a similar structure but a different reduced cost expression that considers messages flowing in both directions across each edge (appendix A.1). The reduced cost oracle can also be used to compute the duality gap of an approximate solution. This allows early stopping of our algorithm if the gap is small and also provides analysis of the sub-optimality of the output of beam search (appendix A.2). Furthermore, margin violation queries when doing structured SVM training with a 0/1 loss can be done efficiently using a small modification of our algorithm, in which we also add variables of small negative reduced cost and do 2-best inference within the restricted domains (appendix A.3). Lastly, regularizing the transition weights more strongly allows one to train models that will decode more quickly (appendix A.4). Most standard inference algorithms, such as Viterbi, do not have this behavior where the inference time is affected by the actual model scores. By coupling inference and learning, practitioners have more freedom to trade off test-time speed vs. accuracy. 6 Related Work Column generation has been employed as a way of dramatically speeding up MAP inference problems in Riedel et al [10], which applies it directly to the LP relaxation for dependency parsing with grandparent edges. There has been substantial prior work on improving the speed of max-product inference in chains by pruning the search process. CarpeDiem [11] relies on an an expression similar to the oriented, left-to-right reduced cost equation of (8), also with a similar pruning strategy to the one described in section 4.3. Following up, Kaji et al. [12] presented a staggered decoding strategy that similarly attempts to bound the best achievable score using uninstantiated domains, but only used local scores when searching for new candidates. The dual variables obtained in earlier runs were then used to warm-start the inference in later runs, similarly to what is done in section 4.2. Their techniques obtained similar speed-ups as ours over Viterbi inference. However, their algorithms do not provide extensions to inference in trees, a margin-violation oracle, and approximate inference using a duality gap. Furthermore, Kaji et al. use data-dependent transition scores. This may improve our performance as well, if the transition scores are more sharply peaked. Similarly, Raphael [13] also presents a staggered decoding strategy, but does so in a way that applies to many dynamic programming algorithms. The strategy of preprocessing data-independent factors to speed up max-product has been previously explored by McAuley and Caetano [14], who showed that if the transition weights are large, savings can be obtained by sorting them offline. Our contributions, on the other hand, are more effective 6 when the transitions are small. The same authors have also explored strategies to reduce the worstcase complexity of message-passing by exploiting faster matrix multiplication algorithms [15]. Alternative methods of leveraging the interplay between fast dynamic programming algorithms and higher-level LP techniques have been explored elsewhere. For example, in dual decomposition [16], inference in joint models is reduced to repeated inference in independent models. Tree block-coordinate descent performs approximate inference in loopy models using exact inference in trees as a subroutine [1]. Column generation is cutting planes in the dual, and cutting planes have been used successfully in various machine learning contexts. See, for example, Sontag et al [17] and Riedel et al [18]. There is a mapping between dynamic programs and Figure 2: Training-time manipulation of acshortest path problems [19]. Our reduced cost is an curacy vs. test throughput for our algorithm estimate of the desirability of an edge setting, and thus our algorithm is heuristic search in the space of edge settings. With dual feasibility, this heuristic is consistent, and thus our algorithm is iteratively constructing a heuristic such that it can perform A? search for the final restricted LP [20]. 7 Experiments We compare the performance of column generation with exact and approximate inference on Wall Street Journal [21] part-of-speech (POS) tagging and joint POS tagging and named-entityrecognition (POS/NER). The output variable domain size is 45 for POS and 360 for POS/NER. The test set contains 5463 sentences. The POS model was trained with a 0/1 loss structured SVM and the POS/NER model was trained using SampleRank [22]. Table 1 compares the inference times and accuracies of column generation (CG), Viterbi, Viterbi with the final pruning technique described in section 4.3 (Viterbi+P), CG with duality gap termination condition 0.15% (CG+DG), and beam search. For POS, CG, is more than twice as fast as Viterbi, with speed comparable to a beam of size 3. Whereas CG is exact, Beam-3 loses 1.6% accuracy. Exact inference in the model obtains a tagging accuracy of 95.3%. For joint POS and NER tagging, the speedups are even more dramatic. We observe a 13x speedup over Viterbi and are comparable in speed with a beam of size 7, while being exact. As in POS, CG-DG provides a mild speedup. Over 90% of tokens in the POS task had a domain of size one, and over 99% had a domain of size 3 or smaller. Column generation always finished in at most three iterations, and 22% of the time it terminated after one. 86% of the time, the reduced-cost oracle iterated over at most 5 candidate edge settings, which is a significant reduction from the worst-case behavior of 452 . The pruning strategy in Viterbi+P manages to restrict the number of possible labels for each token to at most 5 for over 65% of the tokens, and prunes the size of each domain by half over 95% of the time. Table 2.A presents results for a 0/1 loss oracle described in section 5. Baselines are a standard Viterbi 2-best search1 and Viterbi 2-best with the pruning technique of 4.3 (Viterbi+P). CG outperforms Viterbi 2-best on both POS and POS/NER. Though Viterbi+P presents an effective speedup, we are still 19x faster on POS/NER. In terms of absolute throughput, POS/NER is faster than POS because the POS/NER model wasn?t trained with a regularized structured SVM, and thus there are fewer margin violations. Our 0/1 oracle is quite efficient when determining that there isn?t a margin violation, but requires extra work when required to actually produce the 2-best setting. Table 2.B shows column generation with two other reduced-cost formulations on the same POS tagging task. CG-? uses the reduced-cost from equation (8) while CG-?+?i+1 uses the reducedcost from equation (9). The full CG is clearly beneficial, despite requiring computation of ?. 1 Implemented by replacing all maximizations in the viterbi code with two-best maximizations. 7 Algorithm Viterbi Viterbi+P CG CG-DG Beam-1 Beam-2 Beam-3 Beam-4 % Exact 100 100 100 98.9 57.7 92.6 98.4 99.5 Sent./sec. 3144.6 4515.3 8227.6 9355.6 12117.6 7519.3 6802.5 5731.2 Algorithm Viterbi Viterbi+P CG CG-DG Beam-1 Beam-5 Beam-7 Beam-10 % Exact 100 100 100 98.4 66.6 98.5 99.2 99.5 Sent./sec. 56.9 498.9 779.9 804 3717.0 994.97 772.8 575.1 Table 1: Comparing inference time and exactness of Column Generation (CG), Viterbi, Viterbi with the final pruning technique of section 4.3 (Viterbi+P), and CG with duality gap termination condition 0.15%(CG+DG), and beam search on POS tagging (left) and joint POS/NER (right). Method CG Viterbi 2-best Viterbi+P 2-best POS Sent./sec. 85.0 56.0 119.6 POS/NER Sent./sec. 299.9 .06 11.7 Reduced Cost CG CG-? CG-?+?i+1 POS Sent./sec. 8227.6 5125.8 4532.1 Table 2: (A) the speedups for a 0/1 loss oracle (B) comparing reduced cost formulations In Figure 2, we explore the ability to manipulate training time regularization to trade off test accuracy and test speed, as discussed in section 5. We train a structured SVM with L2 regularization (coefficient 0.1) the emission weights, and vary the L2 coefficient on the transition weights from 0.1 to 10. A 4x gain in speed can be obtained at the expense of an 8% relative decrease in accuracy. 8 Conclusions and future work In this paper we presented an efficient family of algorithms based on column generation for MAP inference in chains and trees. This algorithm exploits the fact that inference can often rule out many possible values, and we can efficiently expand the set of values on the fly. Depending on the parameter settings it can be twice as fast as Viterbi in WSJ POS tagging and 13x faster in a joint POS-NER task. One avenue of further work is to extend the bounding strategies in this algorithm for inference in cluster graphs or junction trees, allowing faster inference in higher-order chains or even loopy graphical models. The connection between inference and learning shown in section 5 also bears further study, since it would be helpful to have more prescriptive advice for regularization strategies to achieve certain desired accuracy/time tradeoffs. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the Center for Intelligent Information Retrieval. The University of Massachusetts gratefully acknowledges the support of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Machine Reading Program under Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) prime contract no. FA8750-09-C-0181, in part by IARPA via DoI/NBC contract #D11PC20152, in part by Army prime contract number W911NF-07-1-0216 and University of Pennsylvania subaward number 103-548106 , and in part by UPenn NSF medium IIS-0803847. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are the authors? and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsor. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprint for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation thereon References [1] David Sontag and Tommi Jaakkola. Tree block coordinate descent for MAP in graphical models. In Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AI-STATS), volume 8, pages 544?551. JMLR: W&CP, 2009. 8 [2] C. Pal, C. Sutton, and A. McCallum. Sparse forward-backward using minimum divergence beams for fast training of conditional random fields. In Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 2006. ICASSP 2006 Proceedings. 2006 IEEE International Conference on, volume 5, pages V?V. IEEE, 2006. [3] A. Kulesza, F. Pereira, et al. Structured learning with approximate inference. Advances in neural information processing systems, 20:785?792, 2007. [4] L. Shen, G. Satta, and A. Joshi. Guided learning for bidirectional sequence classification. In Annual Meeting-Association for Computational Linguistics, volume 45, page 760, 2007. [5] D. Tarlow, D. Batra, P. Kohli, and V. Kolmogorov. Dynamic tree block coordinate ascent. In ICML, pages 113?120, 2011. [6] C. Yanover, T. Meltzer, and Y. Weiss. Linear programming relaxations and belief propagation?an empirical study. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:1887?1907, 2006. [7] M. Lubbecke and J. Desrosiers. Selected topics in column generation. Operations Research, 53:1007? 1023, 2004. [8] D. Bertsimas and J. Tsitsiklis. Introduction to Linear Optimization. Athena Scientific, 1997. [9] M.J. Wainwright and M.I. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 1(1-2):1?305, 2008. [10] S. Riedel, D. Smith, and A. McCallum. Parse, price and cutdelayed column and row generation for graph based parsers. Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical methods in natural language processing (EMNLP ?12), 2012. [11] R. Esposito and D.P. Radicioni. Carpediem: an algorithm for the fast evaluation of SSL classifiers. In Proceedings of the 24th international conference on Machine learning, pages 257?264. ACM, 2007. [12] N. Kaji, Y. Fujiwara, N. Yoshinaga, and M. Kitsuregawa. Efficient staggered decoding for sequence labeling. In Proceedings of the 48th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 485?494. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2010. [13] C. Raphael. Coarse-to-fine dynamic programming. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, 23(12):1379?1390, 2001. [14] J. McAuley and T. Caetano. Exploiting data-independence for fast belief-propagation. In International Conference on Machine Learning 2010, volume 767, page 774, 2010. [15] J.J. McAuley and T.S. Caetano. Faster algorithms for max-product message-passing. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:1349?1388, 2011. [16] A.M. Rush, D. Sontag, M. Collins, and T. Jaakkola. On dual decomposition and linear programming relaxations for natural language processing. In Proceedings of the 2010 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, pages 1?11. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2010. [17] D. Sontag and T. Jaakkola. New outer bounds on the marginal polytope. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2007. [18] S. Riedel. Improving the accuracy and efficiency of MAP inference for Markov logic. Proceedings of UAI 2008, pages 468?475, 2008. [19] R. Kipp Martin, Ronald L. Rardin, and Brian A. Campbell. Polyhedral characterization of discrete dynamic programming. Operations Research, 38(1):pp. 127?138, 1990. [20] R.K. Ahuja, T.L. Magnanti, J.B. Orlin, and K. Weihe. Network flows: theory, algorithms and applications. ZOR-Methods and Models of Operations Research, 41(3):252?254, 1995. [21] M.P. Marcus, M.A. Marcinkiewicz, and B. Santorini. Building a large annotated corpus of english: The penn treebank. Computational linguistics, 19(2):313?330, 1993. [22] M. Wick, K. Rohanimanesh, K. Bellare, A. Culotta, and A. McCallum. SampleRank: training factor graphs with atomic gradients. In Proceedings of ICML, 2011. 9
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Application of Neural Network Methodology to the Modelling of the Yield Strength in a Steel Rolling Plate Mill Ah Chung Tsoi Department of Electrical Engineering University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia. Abstract In this paper, a tree based neural network viz. MARS (Friedman, 1991) for the modelling of the yield strength of a steel rolling plate mill is described. The inputs to the time series model are temperature, strain, strain rate, and interpass time and the output is the corresponding yield stress. It is found that the MARS-based model reveals which variable's functional dependence is nonlinear, and significant. The results are compared with those obta.ined by using a Kalman filter based online tuning method and other classification methods, e.g. CART, C4 .5, Bayesian classification. It is found that the MARS-based method consistently outperforms the other methods. 1 Introduction Hot rolling of steel slabs into fiat plates is a common process in a steel mill. This technology has been in use for many years. The process of rolling hot slabs into plates is relatively well understood [see, e.g., Underwood, 1950]. But with the intense intrnational market competition, there is more and more demand on the quality of the finished plates. This demand for quality fuels the search for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the transformation of hot slabs into plates, and a better control of the parameters involved. Hopefully, a better understanding of the controlling parameters will lead to a more optimal setting of the control on the process, which will lead ultimately to a better quality final product. 698 ANN Modelling of a Steel Rolling Plate Mill In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the plate yield stress in a hot steel rolling plate mill. Rolling is a process of plastic deformation and its objective is achieved by subjecting the material to forces of such a magnitude that the reSUlting stresses produce permanent change of shape. Apart from the obvious dependence on the materials used, the characteristics of the material undergoing plastic deformation are described by stress, strain and temperature, if the rolling is performed on hot slabs . In addition, the interpass time, i.e., the time between passes of the slab through the rollers (an indirect measure of the rolling velocity), directly influences the metallurgical structure of the metal during rolling. There is considerable evidence that the yield stress is also dependent 011 the strain rate. In fact, it is observed that as the strain rate increases, the initial yield point increases appreciably, but after an extension is achieved, the effect of strain rate on the yield stress is very much reduced [see, e.g., Underwood, 1950]. The effect of temperature on the yield stress is important. It is shown that the resistance to deformation increases with a decrease in temperature. The resistance to deformation versus temperature diagram shows a "hump" in the curve, which corresponds to the temperature at which the structure of material changes fundamentally [see, e.g., Underwood, 1950, Hodgson & Collinson, 1990]. Using, e.g., an energy method, it is possible to formulate a theoretical model of the dependence of deformation resistance on temperature, strain, strain rate, velocity (indirectly, the interpass time). One may then validate the theoretical model by performing a rolling experiment on a piece of material, perhaps under laboratory conditions [see .e.g., Horihata, Motomura, 1988, for consideration of a three roller system] . It is difficult to apply the derived theoretical model to a practical situation, due to the fact that in a practical process, the measurement of strain and strain rate are not accurate. Secondly, one cannot possibly perform a rolling experiment on each new piece of material to be rolled. Thus though the theoretical model may serve as a guide to our understanding of the process, it is not suitable for controller design purposes. There are empirical models relating the resistance of deformation to temperature, strain and strain rate [see, e.g., Underwood, 1950, for an account of older models]. These models are often obtained by fitting the observed data to a general data model. The following model has been found useful in fitting the observed practical data km = a{b d sinh -1 (ci: exp( T)!) (1) where k m is the yield stress, { is the strain, i is the corresponding strain rate, and T is the temperature. a, b, c, d and f are unknown constants. It is claimed that this model will give a good prediction of the yield stress, especially at lower temperatures, and for thin plate passes [Hodgson & Collinson, 1990] . This model does not always give good predictions over all temperatures as mill conditions vary with time, and the model is only "tuned" on a limited set of data. 699 700 Tsoi In order to overcome this problem, McFarlane, Telford, and Petersen [1991] have experimented with a recursive model based on the Kalman filter in control theory to update the parameters (see, e.g. Anderson, Moore, [1980]), a, b, c, d, / in the above model. To better describe the material behaviour at different temperatures, the model explicitly incorporates two separate sub-models with a temperature dependence: 1. Full crystallisation (T < Tupper) km = alb sinh-1(ci exp( :)J) (2) The constants a, b, c, d, f are model coefficients. 2. Partial recrystallisation (Tiower ~ T ~ Tupper). + f*)bsinh-1(ciexp(:)J) to .5 = j(Ai-lfi-l + {i)9 h?q(Ti - 1, n)h? km = a({ Ai = h(t, to.5) (3) (4) (5) where A is the fractional retained strain; {*, expressed as a Taylor series expansion of Ai-l (i-l, is the retained strain; t is the interpass time; to.5 is the 50 % recrystallisation time; q(n-l, Ti) is a prescribed nonlinear function of n-l and n; h(.) and 12(.) are pre-specified nonlinear functions; i, the roll pass number; j, h, g are the model coefficients; Tupper is an experimentally determined temperature at which the material undergoes a permanent change in structure; and 1iower is a temperature below which the material does not exhibit any plastic behaviour. Model coefficients a,b,c,d,/,g,h,j are either estimated in a batch mode (i.e., all the past data are assumed to be available simultaneously) or adapted recursively on-line (i.e., only a limited number of the past data is available) using a Kalman filter algorithm in order to provide the best model predictions [McFarlane, Telford, Petersen, 1991]. It is noted that these models are motivated by the desire to fit a nonlinear model of a special type, i.e., one which has an inverse hyperbolic sine function. But, since the basic operation is data fitting, i.e., to fit a model to the set of given data, it is possible to consider more general nonlinear models. These models may not have any ready interpretation in metallurgical terms, but these models may be better in fitting a nonlinear model to the given data set in the sense that it may give a better prediction of the output. It has been shown (see, e.g., Hornik et aI, 1989) that a class of artificial neural networks, viz., a multilayer perceptron with a single hidden layer can approximate any arbitrary input output function to an arbitrary degree of accuracy. Thus it is reasonable to experiment with different classes of artificial neural network or induction tree structures for fitting the set of given data and to examine which structure gives the best performance. ANN Modelling of a Steel Rolling Plate Mill The structure of the paper is as follows: in section 2, a brief review of a special class of neural networks is given. In section 3, results in applying the neural network model to the plate mill data are given. 2 A Tree Based Neural Network model Friedman [1991] introduced a new class of neural network architecture which is called MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline). This class of methods can be interpreted as a tree of neurons, in which each leaf of the tree consists of a neuron. The model of the neuron may be a piecewise linear polynomial, or a cubic polynomial, with the knot as a variable. In view of the lack of space, we will refer the interested readers to Friedman's paper [1991] for details on this method. 3 Results MARS has been applied to the platemill data. We have used the data in the following manner. We concatenate different runs of the plate mill into a single time series. This consists of 2877 points corresponding to 180 individual plates with approximately 16 passes on each plate. There are 4 independent variables, viz., interpass time, temperature, strain, and strain rate. The desired output variable is the yield stress. A plot of the individual variables, viz temperature, strain, strain rate, interpass time and stress versus time reveal that the variables can vary rather considerably over the entire time series. In addition, a plot of stress versus temperature, stress versus strain, stress versus strain rate and stress versus interpass time reveals that the functional dependence could be highly nonlinear. We have chosen to use an additive model (Friedman [1991]), instead of the more general multivariate model, as this will allow us to observe any possible nonlinear functional dependencies of the output as a function of the inputs. (6) = where k., i I, 2, 3, 4 are gains, and fi' i mial models found by MARS . = 1, 2, 3,4 are piecewise nonlinear polyno- The results are as follows: Both the piecewise linear polynomial and the piecewise cubic polynomial are used to study this set of data. It is found that the cubic polynomial gives a better fit than the linear polynomial fit. Figure I(a) shows the error plot between the estimated output from a cubic spline fit, and the training data. It is observed that the error is very small. The maximum error is about -0.07. Figure I(b) shows the plot of the predicted yield stress and the original yield stress over the set of training data. These figures indicate that the cubic polynomial fit has captured most of the variation of the data. It is interesting to note that in this model, the interpass time 701 702 Tsoi JI 28 .1' 13 2' 12 - 12 Figure 1: (a) The prediction error on the training data set (b) The prediction and the training data set superimposed plays no significant part. This feature may be a peculiar aspect of this set of data points. It is not true in general. It is found that the strain rate has the most influence on the data, followed by temperature, and followed by strain. The model, once obtained, can be used to predict the yield stress from a given set of temperature, strain, and strain rate. Figure 2(a) shows the prediction error between the yield stress and the predicted yield stress on a set of testing data, i.e. the data which is not used to train the model and Figure 2(b) shows a plot of the predicted value of yield stress superimposed on the original yield stress. It is observed that the prediction on the set of testing data is reasonable. This indicates that the MARS model has captured most of the dynamics underlying the original training data, and is capable of extending this captured knowledge onto a set of hitherto unseen data. 4 Comparison with the results obtained by conventional approaches In order to compare the artificial neural network approach to more conventional methods for model tuning, the same data set was processed using: 1. A MARS model with cubic polynomials 2. An inverse hyperbolic sine law model using least square batch parameter tuning ANN Modelling of a Steel Rolling Plate Mill .. ~ 32 ... 28 .3. 26 . 2' ~ 22 . ? 2. .3 .6 ?? '2 II - .?. .. 16V ~ - .? ~. ~ ?? 61 , ??" '3 ... '61 ,. 211 23 24. 26' .... 3 ?? 61 ? '" .3 ... '61 ,. 211 23 2" 26' Figure 2: (a) The prediction error on the testing data set (b) The prediction and the testing data set superimposed 3. An inverse hyperbolic sine law model using a recursive least squares tuning 4. CART based classification [Brie men et. al., 1984] 5. C4.5 based method [Quinlan, 1986,1987] 6. Bayesian classification [Buntine, [1990] In each case, we used a training data set of78 plates (1242 passes) and a testing data set of 16 plates (252 passes). In the cases of CART, C4.5, and Bayesian classification methods, the yield stress variable is divided equally into 10 classes, and this is used as the desired output instead of the original real values. The comparison of the results between MARS and the Kalman filter based approach are shown in the following table mean% mean abs% std % Bll B12 -.64 4.61 6.26 1.69 4.22 5.11 All -.64 4.61 6.26 Al2 2.38 5.3 6.25 ell C12 -0.2 3.5 4.7 4.5 5.3 4.9 where Bll = Batch Tuning: tuning model ( forgetting factors =1 in adaption) on the training data B12 = Batch Tuning: running tuned model on the testing data All = Adaptation: on the training data Al2 = Adaptation: on the testing data 703 704 Tsoi Cll = MARS on the training data C u = MARS on the testing data, and mean% = mean?k mea , - kpred)/kmea,), meanabs% = mean(abs(kmea , - kpred)/kmea,)), std% = stdev(k mea , - kpred)/kmea,); where mean and stdev stands for the mean and the standard deviations respectively, and k mea" kpred represents the measured and predicted values of the yield stress respectively. It is found that the MARS based model performs extremely well compared with the other methods. The standard deviation of the prediction errors in a MARS model is considerably less than the corresponding standard deviation of prediction errors in a Kalman filter type batch or online tuning model on the testing data set. We have also compared MARS with both the CART based method and the C4.5 based method. As both CART and C4.5 operate only on an output category, rather than a continuous output value, it is necessary to convert the yield stress into a category type of variable. We have chosen to divide equally the yield stress into 10 classes. With this modification, the CART and C4.5 methods are readily applicable. The following table summarises the results of this comparison. The values given are the percentage of the prediction error on the testing data set for various methods. In the case of MARS, we have converted the prediction error from a continuous variable into the corresponding classes as used in the CART and C4.5 methods. I 65.4 Bayes I CART I C4.5 I MARS I 12.99 16.14 6.2 It is found that the MARS model is more consistent in predicting the output classes than either the CART method, the C4.5 based method, or the Bayesian classifier. The fact that the MARS model performs better than the CART model can be seen as a confirmation that the MARS model is a generalisation of the CART model (see Friedman [1991]). But it is rather surprising to see that the MARS model outperforms a Bayesian classifier. The results are similar over a number of other typical data sets, e.g., when the interpass time variable becomes significant. 5 Conclusion It is found that MARS can be applied to model the platemill data with very good accuracy. In terms of predictive power on unseen data, it performs better than the more traditional methods, e.g., Kalman filter batch or online tuning methods, CART, C4.5 or Bayesian classifier. It is almost impossible to convert the MARS model into one given in section 1. The Hodgson-Collinson model places a breakpoint at a temperature of 925 deg G, while in the MARS model, the temperature breakpoints are found to be at 1017 degG and 1129 deg C respectively. Hence it is difficult to convert the MARS model into those given by the Hodgson-Collinson model, the Kalman filter type models or vice ANN Modelling of a Steel Rolling Plate Mill versa. A possible improvement to the current MARS technique would be to restrict the breakpoints, so that they must exist within a temperature region where microstructural changes are known to occur. 6 Acknowledgement The author acknowledges the assistance given by the staff at the BHP Melbourne Research Laboratory in providing the data, as well as in providing the background material in this paper. He specially thanks Dr D McFarlane in giving his generous time in assisting in the understanding of the more traditional approaches, and also for providing the results on the Kalman filtering approach. Also, he is indebted to Dr W Buntine, RIACS, NASA, Ames Research Center for providing an early version of the induction tree based programs. 7 References Anderson, B.D.O., Moore, J .B., (1980). Optimal Fitering. Prentice Hall, Eaglewood, NJ. Brieman, L., Friedman, J., Olshen, R.A., Stone, C.J., (1984). Classification and Regrression Trees. Wadworth, Belmont, CA. Buntine, W, (1990). A Theory of Learning Classification Rules. PhD Thesis submitted to the University of Technology, Sydney. Friedman, J, (1991). "Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines". Ann Stat. to appear. (Also, the implication of the paper on neural network models was presented orally in the 1990 NIPS Conference) Hodgson, Collinson, (1990). Manuscript under preparation (authors are with BHP Research Lab., Melbourne, Australia) . Horihata, M, Motomura, M, (1988). "Theoretical analysis of 3-roll Rolling Process by the energy method". Trans of the Iron and Steel Institute of Japan, 28:6, 434439. Hornik, K., Stinchcombe, M., White, H., (1989). "Multilayer Feedforward Networks are Universal Approximators". Neural Networks, 2, 359-366. McFarlane, D, Telford, A, Petersen, I, (1991). Manuscript under preparation Quinlan, R. (1986). "Induction of Decision Trees". Machine Learning. 1,81-106. Quinlan, R. (1987). "Simplifying Decision Trees". International J Man-Machine Studies. 27, 221-234. Underwood, L R, (1950). The Rolling of Metals. Chapman & Hall, London. 705
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Active Learning of Multi-Index Function Models Hemant Tyagi and Volkan Cevher LIONS ? EPFL Abstract We consider the problem of actively learning multi-index functions of the form Pk f (x) = g(Ax) = i=1 gi (aTi x) from point evaluations of f . We assume that the function f is defined on an `2 -ball in Rd , g is twice continuously differentiable almost everywhere, and A ? Rk?d is a rank k matrix, where k  d. We propose a randomized, active sampling scheme for estimating such functions with uniform approximation guarantees. Our theoretical developments leverage recent techniques from low rank matrix recovery, which enables us to derive an estimator of the function f along with sample complexity bounds. We also characterize the noise robustness of the scheme, and provide empirical evidence that the highdimensional scaling of our sample complexity bounds are quite accurate. 1 Introduction d Learning functions f : x ? y based on training data (yi , xi )m i=1 : R ? R is a fundamental problem with many scientific and engineering applications. Often, the function f has a parametric model, as in linear regression when f (x) = aT x, and hence, learning the function amounts to learning the model parameters. In this setting, obtaining an approximate model fb when d  1 is challenging due to the curse-of-dimensionality. Fortunately, low-dimensional parameter models, such as sparsity and low-rank models, enable successful learning from dimensionality reduced or incomplete data [1, 2]. Since any parametric form is at best an approximation, non-parametric models remain as important alternatives where we also attempt to learn the structure of the mapping f from data [3?15]. Unfortunately, the curse-of-dimensionality problem in non-parametric function learning in high-dimensions is particularly difficult even with smoothness assumptions on f [16?18]. For instance, learning functions f ? C s (i.e., the derivatives f 0 , . . . , f (s) exist and are continuous), defined over compact supports, require m = ?((1/?)d/s ) samples for a uniform approximation guarantee of ?  1 (i.e., kf ? fbkL? ? ?) [17]. Surprisingly, even infinitely differentiable functions (s = ?) are not immune to this problem (m = ?(2bd/2c )) [18]. Therefore, further assumptions on the multivariate functions beyond smoothness are needed for the tractability of successful learning [13, 14, 16, 19]. To this end, we seek to learn low-dimensional function models f (x) = g(Ax) that decompose as Model 1: f (x) = k X gi (aTi x) | Model 2: f (x) = aT1 x + i=1 k X gi (aTi x), (1) i=2 thereby constraining f to effectively live on k-dimensional subspaces, where k  d. The models in (1) have several important machine learning applications, and are known as the multi-index models in statistics and econometrics, and multi-ridge functions in signal processing [4?7, 20?24]. In stark contrast to the classical regression setting where (yi , xi )m i=1 is given a priori, we posit the active learning setting where we can query the function to obtain first an explicit approximation of A and subsequently of f . As a stylized example of the active learning setting, consider numerical solutions of parametric partial differential equations (PDE). Given PDE(f, x) = 0, where f (x): 1 ? ? R is the implicit solution, obtaining a function sample typically requires running a computationally expensive numerical solver. As we have the ability to choose the samples, we can minimize the number of queries to the PDE solver in order to learn an explicit approximation of f [13]. Background: To set the context for our contributions, it is necessary to review the (rather extensive) literature that revolve around the models (1). We categorize the earlier works by how the samples are obtained (regression (passive) vs. active learning), what the underlying low-dimensional model is (low-rank vs. sparse), and how the smoothness is encoded (kernels vs. C s ). Regression/low-rank [3?7]: We consider the function model f (x) = g(Ax) to be kernel smooth or C s . Noting the differentiability of f , we observe that the gradients ?f (x) = AT ?g(Ax) live within the low-dimensional subspaces of AT . Assuming that ?g has sufficient richness to span kdimensional subspaces of the rows of A, we use the given samples to obtain Hessian estimates via local smoothing techniques, such as kernel estimates, nearest-neighbor, or spline methods. We then use the k-principal vectors of the estimated Hessian to approximate A. In some cases, we can even establish asymptotic distribution of A estimates but not finite sample complexity bounds. Regression/sparse [8?12]: We add sparsity restrictions on the function models: for instance, we assume only one coordinate is active per additive term in (1). To encode smoothness, we restrict f to a particular functional space, such as the reproducing kernel Hilbert or Sobolev spaces. We employ greedy algorithms, back-fitting approaches, or convex regularizers to not only estimate the active coordinates but also the function itself. We can then establish finite sample complexity rates with guarantees of the form kf ? fbkL2 ? ?, which grow logarithmically with d as well as match the minimax bounds for the learning problem. Moreover, the function estimation incurs a linear cost in k since the problem formulation affords a rotation-free structure between x and gi ?s. Active learning [13?15]: The majority of the (rather limited) literature on active non-parametric function learning makes sparsity assumptions on A to obtain guarantees of the form kf ? fbkL? ? ?, where f ? C s with s > 1.1 For instance, we consider the form f (x) = g(Ax), where the rows of A live in a weak `q ball with q < 2 (i.e., they are approximately sparse).2 We then leverage a prescribed random sampling, and prove that the sample complexity grows logarithmically with d and is inversely proportional to the k-th singular value of a ?Hessian? matrix H f (for a precise definition of H f , see (7)). Thus far, the only known characterization for the k-th singular value of H f is for radial basis functions, i.e., f (x) = g(kAxk2 ). Just recently, we also see a low-rank model to handle f (x) = g(aT x) for a general a (k = 1) with a sample complexity proportional to d [15]. Our contributions: In this paper, which is a summary of [26], we take the active learning perspective via low-rank methods, where we have a general A with only C s assumptions on gi ?s. Our main contributions are as follows: 1. k-th singular value of H f [14, 15]: Based on the random sampling schemes of [14, 15], we rigorously establish the first high-dimensional scaling characterization of the k-th singular value of H f , which governs the sample complexity in both sparse and general A for the multi-index models in (1). To achieve this result, we introduce an easy-to-verify, new analysis tool based on Lipschitz continuous second order partial derivatives. 2. Generalization of [13?15]: We derive the first sample complexity bound for the C s functions in (1) with arbitrary number of linear parameters k without the compressibility assumptions on the rows of A. Along the way, we leverage the conventional low-rank models in regression approaches and bridge them with the recent low-rank recovery algorithms. Our result also lifts the sparse additive models in regression [8?12] to a basis-free setting. 3. Impact of additive noise: We analytically show how additive white Gaussian noise in the function queries impacts the sample complexity of our low-rank approach. 1 Not to be confused with the online active learning approaches, which ?optimize? a function, such as finding its maximum [25]. In contrast, we would like to obtain uniform approximation guarantees on f , which might lead to redundant samples if we truly are only interested in finding a critical point of the function. 2 As having one known basis to sparsify all k-dimensions in order to obtain a sparse A is rather restrictive, this model does not provide a basis-free generalization of the sparse additive models in regression [8?12]. 2 2 A recipe for active learning of low-dimensional non-parametric models This section provides the preliminaries for our low-rank active learning approach for multi-index models in (1). We first introduce our sampling scheme (based on [14, 15]), summarize our main observation model (based on [6, 7, 14, 15]), and explain our algorithmic approach (based on [15]). This discussion sets the stage for our main theoretical contributions, as described in Section 4. Our sampling scheme: Our sampling approach relies on a specific interaction of two sets: sampling centers and an associated set of directions for each center. We denote the set of sampling centers as X = {?j ? Sd?1 ; j = 1, . . . , mX }. We form X by sampling points uniformly at random in Sd?1 (the unit sphere in d-dimensions) according to the uniform measure ?Sd?1 . Along with T each ?j ? X , we define a directions vector ?j = [?1,j | . . . |?m? ,j ] , and construct the sampling directions operator ? for j = 1, . . . , mX , i = 1, . . . , m? , and l = 1, . . . , d as   p  1 ? = ?i,j ? BRd with probability 1/2 , (2) d/m? : [?i,j ]l = ? ? m? p  p where BRd d/m? is the `2 -ball with radius r = d/m? . Our low-rank observation model: We first write the Taylor series approximation of f as follows  f (x + ?) = f (x) +  h?, ?f (x)i + E(x, , ?); E(x, , ?) = ?T ?2 f (?(x, ?))?, (3) 2 where   1, E(x, , ?) is the curvature error, and ?(x, ?) ? [x, x + ?] ? BRd (1 + r). Substituting f (x) = g(Ax) into (3), we obtain a perturbed observation model (?g(?) is a k ? 1 vector): 1 ?, AT ?g(Ax) = (f (x + ?) ? f (x)) ? E(x, , ?). (4)  We then introduce a matrix X := AT G with G := [?g(A?1 )|?g(A?2 )| ? ? ? |?g(A?mX )]k?mX . Based on (4), we then derive the following linear system via the operator ? : Rd?mX ? Rm? y = ?(X) + ?; yi = ?1 mX X [f (?j + ?i,j ) ? f (?j )] , (5) j=1  where y ? Rm? are the perturbed measurements of X with [?(X)]j = trace ?Tj X , and ? = E(X , , ?) is the curvature perturbations. The formulation (5) motivates us to leverage affine rankminimization algorithms [27?29] for low-rank matrix recovery since rank(X) ? k  d. Our active low-rank learning algorithm Algorithm 1 outlines the main steps involved in our approximation scheme. Step 1 constructs the operator ? and the measurements y, given m? , mX , and . Step 2 revolves around the affine-rank minimization algorithms. Step 3 maps the recovered b using the singular value decomposition (SVD) and rank-k approximation. low-rank matrix to A b b as our estimator, where gb(y) = f (A b T y). Given A, step 4 constructs fb(x) = gb(Ax) Algorithm 1: Active learner algorithm for the non-parametric model f (x) = g(Ax) 1: Choose m? , mX , and  and construct the sets X and ?, and the measurements y. b via a stable low-rank recovery algorithm (see Section 3 for an example). 2: Obtain X b = U b? b T and set A bT = U b (k) , corresponding to k largest singular values. bV 3: Compute SVD(X) b b b T y). 4: Obtain an approximation f (x) := g b(Ax) via quasi interpolants where gb(y) := f (A Remark 1. We uniformly approximate the function gb by first sampling it on a rectangular grid: hZk ? (?(1 + ?), (1 + ?))k with uniformly spaced points in each direction (step size h). We then use quasi-interpolants to interpolate in between the points thereby obtaining the approximation g?h , where the complexity is exponential in k (see the tractability discussion in the introduction). We refer the reader to Chapter 12 of [17] regarding the construction of these operators. 3 3 Stable low-rank recovery algorithms within our learning scheme b with the By stable low-rank recovery in Algorithm 1, we mean any algorithm that returns an X b following guarantee: kX ? XkF ? c1 kX ? Xk kF + c2 k?k2 , where c1,2 are constants, and Xk is the best rank-k approximation of X. Since there exists a vast set of algorithms with such guarantees, we use the matrix Dantzig selector [29] as a running example. This discussion is intended to expose the reader to the key elements necessary to re-derive the sample complexity of our scheme in Section 4 for different algorithms, which might offer additional computational trade-offs. Stable embedding: We first explain an elementary result stating that our sampling mechanism satisfies the restricted isometry property (RIP) for all rank-k matrices with overwhelming probabil2 2 2 ity. That is, (1 ? ?k ) kXk kF ? k?(Xk )k`2 ? (1 + ?k ) kXk kF , where ?k is the RIP constant [29]). This property can be used in establishing stability of virtually all low-rank recovery algorithms. As ? in (5) is a Bernoulli random measurement ensemble, it follows from standard concentration in2 2 2 equalities [30,31] that for any rank-k X ? Rd?mX , we have P(| k?(X)k`2 ? kXkF | > t kXkF ) ? m? 2 3 2e? 2 (t /2?t /3) , t ? (0, 1). By using a standard covering argument, as shown in Theorem 2.3 of [29], we can verify that our ? satisfies RIP with isometry constant 0 < ?k < ? < 1 withprobability  ?  3 1 2 ?m? q(?)+k(d+mX +1)u(?) at least 1 ? 2e , where q(?) = 144 ? ? ?9 and u(?) = log 36? 2 . Recovery algorithm and its tuning parameters: The Dantzig selector criteria is given by b DS = arg min kM k s.t. k?? (y ? ?(M ))k ? ?, X ? M (6) where k?k? and k?k are the nuclear and spectral norms, respectively, and ? is a tuning parameter. We require the true X to be feasible, i.e., k?? (?)k ? ?. Hence, the parameter ? can be obtained via 2 ? X k . Moreover, it holds that k?? (?)k ? ? = Proposition 1. In (5), we have k?k`m? ? C2 dm 2 2 m? 2 C2 dm ? X k (1 + ?)1/2 , with probability at least 1 ? 2e?m? q(?)+(d+mX +1)u(?) . 2 m? Proposition 1 is a new result that provides the typical low-rank recovery algorithm tuning parameters for the random sampling scheme in Section 2. We prove Proposition 1 in [26]. Note that the dimension d appears in the bound as we do not make any compressibility assumption on A. If the Pd q rows of A are compressible, that is ( j=1 |aij | )1/q ? D1 ? i = 1, . . . , k for some 0 < q < 1, D1 > 0, we can then remove the explicit d-dependence in the bound here. Stability of low-rank recovery: We first restate a stability result from [29] for bounded noise in Theorem 1. We then exploit this result in Corollary 1 along with Proposition 1 in order to obtain the b (k) to X in step 4 of our Algorithm 1: error bound for the rank-k approximation X DS b DS be the solution to (6). If ?4k < Theorem 2.4 in [29]). Let rank(X) ? k and let X ? 1 (Theorem ? ? < 2?1 and k? (?)k ? ?, then we have with probability at least 1?2e?m? q(?)+4k(d+mX +1)u(?) 2 b XDS ? X ? C0 k?2 , F where C0 depends only on the isometry constant ?4k . b DS to be the solution of (6), if X b (k) is the best rank-k approximation to Corollary 1. Denoting X DS ? b DS in the sense of k?k , and if ?4k < ? < 2 ? 1, then we have X F 2 C0 C22 k 5 2 d2 m2X 2 b (k) (1 + ?), X ? X DS ? 4C0 k? = m? F with probability at least 1 ? 2e?m? q(?)+4k(d+mX +1)u(?) . Corollary 1 is the main result of this section, which is proved in [26]. The approximation guarantee in Corollary 1 can be tightened if other low-rank recovery algorithms are employed in estimation of X. However, we note again that the Dantzig selector enables us to highlight the key steps that lead to the sample complexity of our approach in the next section. 4 4 Main results Overview: Below, we study m? , mX , and  that together achieve and balance three objectives: mX : Sampling centers X are chosen so that the matrix G has rank-k. This is critical in ensuring that G explores the full k-dimensional subspaces as spanned by AT lest X is rank deficient. m? : Sampling directions ? (2) are designed to satisfy the RIP for rank-k matrices (cf., Section 3). This property is typically key in proving low-rank recovery guarantees. : The step-size  in (3) manages the impact of the curvature effects E in the linear system (5). Unfortunately, this leads to a collateral damage of amplifying the impact of noise if the queries are corrupted. We provide a remedy below based on sampling the same data points. Assumptions: We explicitly mention our assumptions here. Without loss of generality, we assume A = [a1 , . . . , ak ]T is an arbitrary k ? d matrix with orthogonal rows so that AAT = Ik , and the function f is defined over the unit ball, i.e., f : BRd (1) ? R.3 For simplicity, we carry out our analysis by assuming g to be a C 2 function. By our set up, g also lives over a compact set, hence all its partial derivatives till the order of two are bounded as a result of the Stone-Weierstrass theorem: sup|?|?2 D? g ? ? C2 ; D? g = ? |?| ?y1?1 . . . ?yk?k ; |?| = ?1 + ? ? ? + ?k , for some constant C2 > 0. Finally, the effectiveness of our sampling approach depends on whether or not the following ?Hessian? matrix H f is well-conditioned: Z (7) H f := ?f (x)?f (x)T d?Sd?1 (x). Sd?1 f That is, for the singular values of H , we assume ?1 (H f ) ? ? ? ? ? ?k (H f ) ? ? > 0 for some ?. This assumption ensures X has full rank-k so that A can be successfully learned. Restricted singular values of multi-index models: Our first main technical contribution provides a local condition in Proposition 2 that fully characterizes ? for multi-index models in (1) below. We prove Proposition 2 and the ensuing Proposition 3 in [26]. Proposition 2. Assume that g ? C 2 : BRk ? R has Lipschitz continuous second order partial  derivatives in an open neighborhood of the origin, U? = BRk (?) for some fixed ? = O d?(s+1) , and for some s > 0: ?2g ?2g ?yi ?yj (y1 ) ? ?yi ?yj (y2 ) ? Li,j ?y1 , y2 ? U? , y1 6= y2 , i, j = 1, . . . , k. ky1 ? y2 k`k 2 ? 2 g(y) Denote L = max1?i,j?k Li,j . Also assume, 6= 0 ?i = 1, . . . , k for Model 1 and 2 ?yi y=0 ?i = 2, . . . , k for Model 2 in (1). Then, we have ? = ?(1/d) as d ? ?. The proof of Proposition 2 also leads to the following proposition for tractability of learning the general set f (x) = g(Ax) without the particular modular decomposition as in (1): Proposition 3. With the same Lipschitz continuous second order partial derivative assumption as in Proposition 2, if ?2 g(0) is rank-k, then we have ? = ?(1/d) as d ? ? Sampling complexity of active multi-index model learning: The importance of Proposition 2 and Proposition 3 is further made explicit in our second main technical contribution as Theorem 2 below, which characterizes the sample complexity of our low-rank learning recipe in Section 2 for non-parametric models along with the Dantzig selector algorithm. Its proof can be found in [26]. 3 Unless further assumptions are made on f or gi ?s, we can only identify the subspace spanned by the rows of A up to a rotation. Hence, while we discuss approximation results on A, the reader should keep in mind that our final guarantees only apply to the function f and not necessarily for A and g individually. Moreover, if f lives in some other convex body other than BRd (1), say L? -ball, our analysis can be extended in a straightforward fashion (cf., the concluding discussion in [14]). We also assume that an enlargement of the unit ball BRd (1) on the domain of f for a sufficiently small ? > 0 is allowed. This is not a restriction, but is a consequence of our scheme as we work with directional derivatives of f at points on the unit sphere Sd?1 . 5 ? Theorem 2. [Sample complexity of Algorithm 1] Let ? ? R+ , ?  1, and ? < 2 ? 1 be log(2/p2 ) + 4k(d + mX + 1)u(?) 2kC22 fixed constants. Choose mX ? log(k/p1 ), m? ? , and q(?) ??2  1/2 (1 ? ?)m? ? ? ?  ? . Then, given m = mX (m? + 1) samples, C2 k 5/2 d(? + 2C2 2k) (1 + ?)C0 mX ? ? with probability at least our function estimator fb in step 4 of Algorithm 1 obeys f ? fb L? 1 ? p1 ? p2 . Theorem 2 characterizes the necessary scaling of the sample complexity for our active learning scheme in order to  obtain uniform approximation guarantees  onf with overwhelming probability: k log k mX = O , m? = O(k(d + mX )), and  = O ??d . Note the important role played ? by ? in the sample complexity. Finally, we also mention that the sample complexity can be written differently to trade-off ? among mX , m? , and . For instance, we can remove ? dependence in the sampling bound for : let ? < 1, then we just need to scale mX by ? ?2 , and m? by ? ?4 . Remark  4?q 2.2 Note that  the sample complexity in [14] for learning compressible A is m = O k 2?q d 2?q log(k) with uniform approximation guarantees on f ? C 2 . However, the authors are able to obtain this result only for a restricted set of radial basis functions. Surprisingly, our sample complexity for multi-index models (1) not only generalizes this result for general A but fea tures a better dimensional dependence for q ? (1, 2) : m = O k 3 d2 (log(k))2 . Of course, we require more computation since we use low-rank recovery as opposed to sparse recovery methods. Impact of noisy queries: Here, we focus on how ? impacts  in particular. Our motivation is to understand how additive noise in function queries, a realistic assumption in many applications, can impact our learning scheme, which will form the basis of our third main technical contribution. Let us assume that the evaluation of f at a point x yields: f (x) + Z, where Z ? N (0, ? 2 ). Thus PmX zij under this noise model, (5) changes to y = ?(X) + ? + z, where z ? Rm? and zi = j=1  . 2 Assuming independent and identically distributed (iid) noise, we have z ? N (0, 2? ), and z ij i ?   N 0, 2mX2 ? 2 . Therefore, the noise variance gets amplified by a factor of 2mX 2 . In our analysis in Section 3, recall that we require the true matrix X to be feasible. Then, from Lemma 1.1 in [29] and Proposition 1, it follows that the bound below holds with high probability. k?? (? + z)k ? p 2?? p C2 dmX k 2 ? 2(1 + ?)mX m? + (1 + ?)1/2 , (? > 2 log 12).  2 m? (8) Unfortunately, we cannot control the upper bound ? on k?? (? + z)k by simply choosing smaller , due to the appearance of the (1/) term. Hence, unless ? is O() or less, (e.g., ? reduces with d), we can only declare that our learning scheme with the matrix Dantzig selector is sensitive to noise unless we resample the same data points O(?1 )-times and average. If the noise variance ? 2 is constant, this would keep the impact of noise below a constant times the impact of the errors, ? curvature  which our scheme can handle. The sample complexity then becomes m = O d/? mX (m? + 1), since we  choose mX (m? + 1) unique points, and then re-query and average ? the same points ? O d/? -times. Unfortunately, we cannot qualitatively improve the O d/? -expansion for noise robustness by simply changing the low-rank recovery algorithm since it depends on the relative ratio of the curvature errors k?k2 to the norm of the noise vector kzk. As ? satisfies the RIP assumption, we can verify that this relative ratio is approximately preserved in (8) for iid Gaussian noise. 5 Numerical Experiments We present simulation results on toy examples to empirically demonstrate the tightness of the sampling bounds. In the sequel, we assume A to be row orthonormal and concern ourselves only with the recovery of A upto an orthonormal transformation. Therefore, we seek a guaranteed lower 6 bT bound on AA ? (k?)1/2 for some 0 < ? < 1. Then it is possible to show, along the lines of F the proof for Theorem 2 (see [26]), we would need to pick  as follows: 1/2  1 (1 ? ?)m? ?(1 ? ?) p ? ? . (9) (1 + ?)C0 mX C2 k 2 d( k(1 ? ?) + 2) Logistic function (k = 1) We first consider f (x) = g(aT x) where g(y) = (1 + e?y )?1 is the logistic function. This case allows us to explicitly calculate all the parameters within necessary our paper. For instance, we can easily verify that C2 = sup|?|?2 g (?) (y) = 1. Furthermore we 2 R 2 compute the value of ? through the approximation: ? = g 0 (aT x) d?Sd?1 ? |g 0 (0)| = (1/16), ? which holds for large d. We require |h? a, ai| to be greater then ? = 0.99. We fix values of ? < 2?1, ? ? (0, 1) and  = 10?3 . The value of mX (number of points sampled on Sd?1 ) is fixed at 20 and we vary d over the range 200?3000. For each value of d, we increase m? till |h? a, ai| reaches the specified performance criteria of ?. We remark that for each value of d and m? , we choose  according to the derived equation (9) for the specified performance criteria given by ?. Figure 1 depicts the scaling of m? with the dimension d. The results are obtained by selecting a uniformly at random on Sd?1 and averaging the value of |h? a, ai| over 10 independent trials using the Danzig selector. We observe that for large values of d, the minimum number of directional derivatives needed to achieve the performance bound on |h? a, ai| scales approximately linearly with d, with a scaling factor of around 1.45. Figure 1: Plot of m? d versus d for mX = 20 , with m? chosen to be minimum value needed to achieve |h? a, ai| ? 0.99.  is fixed at 10?3 . m? scales approximately linearly with d where the constant is 1.45. Sum of Gaussian functions (k > 1) We next consider functions of the form f (x) = g(Ax +  Pk b) = i=1 gi (aTi x + bi ), where gi (y) = (2??i2 )?1/2 exp ?(y + bi )2 /(2?i2 ) . We fix d = 100,  = 10?3 , mX = 100 and vary k from 8 to 32 in steps of 4. For each value of k we are interested b 2 in the minimum value of m? needed to achieve 1 AA ? 0.99. In Figure 2(a), we see that k F m? scales approximately linearly with the number of Gaussian atoms k. The results are averaged over 10 trials. In each trial, we select the rows of A over the left Haar measure on Sd?1 , and the parameter b uniformly at random on Sk?1 scaled by a factor 0.2. Furthermore we generate the standard deviations of the individual Gaussian functions uniformly over the range [0.1, 0.5]. 2 Impact of Noise (k > 1) We now consider quadratic forms, i.e. f (x) = g(Ax) = kAx ? bk with the point queries corrupted with Gaussian noise. Here, we take ? to be 1/d. We fix k = 5, mX = 30,  = 10?1 and vary d from 30 to 120 in steps of 15. For each d we perturb the point queries with Gaussian noise of standard deviation: 0.01/d3/2 . This is the same as repeatedly sampling each random location approximately d3/2 times followed by averaging. We then compute the minimum b 2 value of m? needed to achieve 1 AA ? 0.99. We average the results over 10 trials, and in k F each trial, we select the rows of A over the left Haar measure on Sd?1 . The parameter b is chosen uniformly at random on Sk?1 . In Figure 2(b), we see that m? scales approximately linearly with d, which follows our sample complexity bound for m? in Theorem 2. 7 (a) k > 1 (Gaussian) (b) k > 1 (quadratic) with noise Figure 2: The empirical performance of our oracle-based low-rank learning scheme (circles) agrees well with the theoretical scaling (dashed). Section 5 has further details. 6 Conclusions In this work, we consider the problem of learning non-parametric low-dimensional functions f (x) = g(Ax), which can also have a modular decomposition as in (1), for arbitrary A ? Rk?d where rank(A) = k. The main contributions of the work are three-fold. By introducing a new analysis tool based on Lipschitz property on the second order derivatives, we provide the first rigorous characterization of the dimension dependence of the k-restricted singular value of the ?Hessian? matrix H f for general multi-index models. We establish the first sample complexity bound for learning non-parametric multi-index models with low-rank recovery algorithms and also analyze the impact of additive noise to the sample complexity of the scheme. Lastly, we provide empirical evidence on toy examples to show the tightness of the sampling bounds. Finally, while our active learning scheme ensures the tractability of learning non-parametric multi-index models, it does not establish a lowerbound on the sample complexity, which is left for future work. 7 Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the European Commission under Grant MIRG-268398, ERC Future Proof, SNF 200021-132548, ARO MURI W911NF0910383, and DARPA KeCoM program #11-DARPA-1055. VC also would like to acknowledge Rice University for his Faculty Fellowship. The authors thank Jan Vybiral for useful discussions and Anastasios Kyrillidis for his help with the low-rank matrix recovery simulations. References [1] P. B?uhlmann and S. Van De Geer. Statistics for High-Dimensional Data: Methods, Theory and Applications. Springer-Verlag New York Inc, 2011. [2] L. Carin, R.G. Baraniuk, V. Cevher, D. Dunson, M.I. Jordan, G. Sapiro, and M.B. Wakin. Learning low-dimensional signal models. Signal Processing Magazine, IEEE, 28(2):39?51, 2011. [3] M. Hristache, A. Juditsky, J. Polzehl, and V. Spokoiny. Structure adaptive approach for dimension reduction. The Annals of Statistics, 29(6):1537?1566, 2001. [4] K.C. Li. Sliced inverse regression for dimension reduction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 316?327, 1991. [5] P. Hall and K.C. Li. On almost linearity of low dimensional projections from high dimensional data. The Annals of Statistics, pages 867?889, 1993. [6] Y. Xia, H. Tong, WK Li, and L.X. Zhu. An adaptive estimation of dimension reduction space. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 64(3):363?410, 2002. [7] Y. Xia. A multiple-index model and dimension reduction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103(484):1631?1640, 2008. 8 [8] Y. Lin and H.H. Zhang. Component selection and smoothing in multivariate nonparametric regression. The Annals of Statistics, 34(5):2272?2297, 2006. [9] L. Meier, S. Van De Geer, and P. B?uhlmann. High-dimensional additive modeling. The Annals of Statistics, 37(6B):3779?3821, 2009. [10] G. Raskutti, M. J. Wainwright, and B. Yu. Minimax-optimal rates for sparse additive models over kernel classes via convex programming. Technical Report, UC Berkeley, Department of Statistics, August 2010. [11] P. Ravikumar, J. Lafferty, H. Liu, and L. Wasserman. Sparse additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 71(5):1009?1030, 2009. [12] V. Koltchinskii and M. Yuan. Sparsity in multiple kernel learning. The Annals of Statistics, 38(6):3660?3695, 2010. [13] A. Cohen, I. Daubechies, R. A. DeVore, G. Kerkyacharian, and D. Picard. Capturing ridge functions in high dimensions from point queries. Constr. Approx., pages 1?19, 2011. [14] M. Fornasier, K. Schnass, and J. Vyb??ral. Learning functions of few arbitrary linear parameters in high dimensions. Preprint, 2010. [15] H. Tyagi and V. Cevher. Learning ridge functions with randomized sampling in high dimensions. In ICASSP, 2011. [16] J.F. Traub, G.W Wasilkowski, and H. Wozniakowski. Information-based complexity. Academic Press, New York, 1988. [17] R. DeVore and G.G. Lorentz. Constructive approximation. vol. 303, Grundlehren, Springer Verlag, N.Y., 1993. [18] E.Novak and H.Woniakowski. Approximation of infinitely differentiable multivariate functions is intractable. J. Complex., 25:398?404, August 2009. [19] W. Hardle. Applied nonparametric regression, volume 26. Cambridge Univ Press, 1990. [20] J.H. Friedman and W. Stuetzel. Projection pursuit regression. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 76:817? 823, 1981. [21] D.L. Donoho and I.M. Johnstone. Projection based regression and a duality with kernel methods. Ann. Statist., 17:58?106, 1989. [22] P.J. Huber. Projection pursuit. Ann. Statist., 13:435?475, 1985. [23] A. Pinkus. Approximation theory of the MLP model in neural networks. Acta Numerica, 8:143?195, 1999. [24] E.J Cand`es. Harmonic analysis of neural networks. Appl. Comput. Harmon. Anal., 6(2):197? 218, 1999. [25] N. Srinivas, A. Krause, S. Kakade, and M. Seeger. Information-theoretic regret bounds for gaussian process optimization in the bandit setting. To appear in the IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, 2012. [26] Hemant Tyagi and Volkan Cevher. Learning non-parametric basis independent models from point queries via low-rank methods. Technical Report, Infoscience EPFL, 2012. [27] E.J. Cand`es and B. Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 9(6):717?772, 2009. [28] E.J. Cand`es and T. Tao. The power of convex relaxation: near-optimal matrix completion. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theor., 56:2053?2080, May 2010. [29] E.J. Cand`es and Y. Plan. Tight oracle bounds for low-rank matrix recovery from a minimal number of random measurements. CoRR, abs/1001.0339, 2010. [30] B. Recht, M. Fazel, and P.A. Parrilo. Guaranteed minimum-rank solutions of linear matrix equations via nuclear norm minimization. SIAM REVIEW, 52:471?501, 2010. [31] B. Laurent and P. Massart. Adaptive estimation of a quadratic functional by model selection. The Annals of Statistics, 28(5):1302?1338. 9
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On Multilabel Classification and Ranking with Partial Feedback Claudio Gentile DiSTA, Universit`a dell?Insubria, Italy [email protected] Francesco Orabona TTI Chicago, USA [email protected] Abstract We present a novel multilabel/ranking algorithm working in partial information settings. The algorithm is based on 2nd-order descent methods, and relies on upper-confidence bounds to trade-off exploration and exploitation. We analyze this algorithm in a partial adversarial setting, where covariates can be adversarial, but multilabel probabilities are ruled by (generalized) linear models. We show O(T 1/2 log T ) regret bounds, which improve in several ways on the existing results. We test the effectiveness of our upper-confidence scheme by contrasting against full-information baselines on real-world multilabel datasets, often obtaining comparable performance. 1 Introduction Consider a book recommendation system. Given a customer?s profile, the system recommends a few possible books to the user by means of, e.g., a limited number of banners placed at different positions on a webpage. The system?s goal is to select books that the user likes and possibly purchases. Typical feedback in such systems is the actual action of the user or, in particular, what books he has bought/preferred, if any. The system cannot observe what would have been the user?s actions had other books got recommended, or had the same book ads been placed in a different order within the webpage. Such problems are collectively referred to as learning with partial feedback. As opposed to the full information case, where the system (the learning algorithm) knows the outcome of each possible response (e.g., the user?s action for each and every possible book recommendation placed in the largest banner ad), in the partial feedback setting, the system only observes the response to very limited options and, specifically, the option that was actually recommended. In this and many other examples of this sort, it is reasonable to assume that recommended options are not given the same treatment by the system, e.g., large banners which are displayed on top of the page should somehow be more committing as a recommendation than smaller ones placed elsewhere. Moreover, it is often plausible to interpret the user feedback as a preference (if any) restricted to the displayed alternatives. We consider instantiations of this problem in the multilabel and learning-to-rank settings. Learning proceeds in rounds, in each time step t the algorithm receives an instance xt and outputs an ordered subset Y?t of labels from a finite set of possible labels [K] = {1, 2, . . . , K}. Restrictions might apply to the size of Y?t (due, e.g., to the number of available slots in the webpage). The set Y?t corresponds to the aforementioned recommendations, and is intended to approximate the true set of preferences associated with xt . However, the latter set is never observed. In its stead, the algorithm receives Yt ? Y?t , where Yt ? [K] is a noisy version of the true set of user preferences on xt . When we are restricted to |Y?t | = 1 for all t, this becomes a multiclass classification problem with bandit feedback ? see below. Related work. This paper lies at the intersection between online learning with partial feedback and multilabel classification/ranking. Both fields include a substantial amount of work, so we can hardly do it justice here. We outline some of the main contributions in the two fields, with an emphasis on those we believe are the most related to this paper. 1 A well-known and standard tool of facing the problem of partial feedback in online learning is to trade off exploration and exploitation through upper confidence bounds [16]. In the so-called bandit setting with contextual information (sometimes called bandits with side information or bandits with covariates, e.g., [3, 4, 5, 7, 15], and references therein) an online algorithm receives at each time step a context (typically, in the form of a feature vector x) and is compelled to select an action (e.g., a label), whose goodness is quantified by a predefined loss function. Full information about the loss function is not available. The specifics of the interaction model determines which pieces of loss will be observed by the algorithm, e.g., the actual value of the loss on the chosen action, some information on more profitable directions on the action space, noisy versions thereof, etc. The overall goal is to compete against classes of functions that map contexts to (expected) losses in a regret sense, that is, to obtain sublinear cumulative regret bounds. For instance, [1, 3, 5, 7] work in a finite action space where the mappings context-to-loss for each action are linear (or generalized linear, as in [7]) functions of the features. They all obtain T 1/2 -like regret bounds, where T is the time horizon. This is extended in [15], where the loss function is modeled as a sample from a Gaussian process over the joint context-action space. We are using a similar (generalized) linear modeling here. Linear multiclass classification problems with bandit feedback are considered in, e.g., [4, 11, 13], where either T 2/3 or T 1/2 or even logarithmic regret bounds are proven, depending on the noise model and the underlying loss functions. All the above papers do not consider structured action spaces, where the learner is afforded to select sets of actions, which is more suitable to multilabel and ranking problems. Along these lines are the papers [10, 14, 19, 20, 22]. The general problem of online minimization of a submodular loss function under both full and bandit information without covariates is considered in [10], achieving a regret T 2/3 in the bandit case. In [22] the problem of online learning of assignments is considered, where an algorithm is requested to assign positions (e.g., rankings) to sets of items (e.g., ads) with given constraints on the set of items that can be placed in each position. Their problem shares similar motivations as ours but, again, the bandit version of their algorithm does not explicitly take side information into account, and leads to a T 2/3 regret bound. In [14] the aim is to learn a suitable ordering of the available actions. Among other things, the authors prove a T 1/2 regret bound in the bandit setting with a multiplicative weight updating scheme. Yet, no contextual information is incorporated. In [20] the ability of selecting sets of actions is motivated by a problem of diverse retrieval in large document collections which are meant to live in a general metric space. The generality of this approach does not lead to strong regret guarantees for specific (e.g., smooth) loss functions. [19] uses a simple linear model for the hidden utility function of users interacting with a web system and providing partial feedback in any form that allows the system to make significant progress in learning this function. A regret bound of T 1/2 is again provided that depends on the degree of informativeness of the feedback. It is experimentally argued that this feedback is typically made available by a user that clicks on relevant URLs out of a list presented by a search engine. Despite the neatness of the argument, no formal effort is put into relating this information to the context information at hand or to the way data are generated. Finally, the recent paper [2] investigates classes of graphical models for contextual bandit settings that afford richer interaction between contexts and actions leading again to a T 2/3 regret bound. The literature on multilabel learning and learning to rank is overwhelming. The wide attention this literature attracts is often motivated by its web-search-engine or recommender-system applications, and many of the papers are experimental in nature. Relevant references include [6, 9, 23], along with references therein. Moreover, when dealing with multilabel, the typical assumption is full supervision, an important concern being modeling correlations among classes. In contrast to that, the specific setting we are considering here need not face such a modeling. Other related references are [8, 12], where learning is by pairs of examples. Yet, these approaches need i.i.d. assumptions on the data, and typically deliver batch learning procedures. To summarize, whereas we are technically close to [1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 15], from a motivational standpoint we are perhaps closest to [14, 19, 22]. Our results. We investigate the multilabel and learning-to-rank problems in a partial feedback scenario with contextual information, where we assume a probabilistic linear model over the labels, although the contexts can be chosen by an adaptive adversary. We consider two families of loss functions, one is a cost-sensitive multilabel loss that generalizes the standard Hamming loss in several respects, the other is a kind of (unnormalized) ranking loss. In both cases, the learning algorithm is maintaining a (generalized) linear predictor for the probability that a given label occurs, the ranking being produced by upper confidence-corrected estimated probabilities. In such settings, we prove 2 T 1/2 log T cumulative regret bounds ? these bounds are optimal, up to log factors, when the label probabilities are fully linear in the contexts. A distinguishing feature of our user feedback model is that, unlike previous papers (e.g., [1, 10, 15, 22]), we are not assuming the algorithm is observing a noisy version of the risk function on the currently selected action. In fact, when a generalized linear model is adopted, the mapping context-to-risk turns out to be nonconvex in the parameter space. Furthermore, when operating on structured action spaces this more traditional form of bandit model does not seem appropriate to capture the typical user preference feedback. Our approach is based on having the loss decouple from the label generating model, the user feedback being a noisy version of the gradient of a surrogate convex loss associated with the model itself. As a consequence, the algorithm is not directly dealing with the original loss when making exploration. Though the emphasis is on theoretical results, we also validate our algorithms on two real-world multilabel datasets w.r.t. a number of loss functions, showing good comparative performance against simple multilabel/ranking baselines that operate with full information. 2 Model and preliminaries We consider a setting where the algorithm receives at time t the side information vector xt ? Rd , is allowed to output at a (possibly ordered) subset Y?t ? [K] of the set of possible labels, then the subset of labels Yt ? [K] associated with xt is generated, and the algorithm gets as feedback Y?t ?Yt . The loss suffered by the algorithm may take into account several things: the distance between Yt and Y?t (both viewed as sets), as well as the cost for playing Y?t . The cost c(Y?t ) associated with Y?t might be given by the sum of costs suffered on each class i ? Y?t , where we possibly take into account the order in which i occurs within Y?t (viewed as an ordered list of labels). Specifically, given constant a ? [0, 1] and costs c = {c(i, s), i = 1, . . . , s, s ? [K]}, such that 1 ? c(1, s) ? c(2, s) ? . . . c(s, s) ? 0, for all s ? [K], we consider the loss function P `a,c (Yt , Y?t ) = a |Yt \ Y?t | + (1 ? a) i?Y?t \Yt c(ji , |Y?t |), where ji is the position of class i in Y?t , and c(ji , ?) depends on Y?t only through its size |Y?t |. In the above, the first term accounts for the false negative mistakes, hence there is no specific ordering of labels therein. The second term collects the loss contribution provided by all false positive classes, taking into account through the costs c(ji , |Y?t |) the order in which labels occur in Y?t . The constant a serves as weighting the relative importance of false positive vs. false negative mistakes. As a specific example, suppose that K = 10, the costs c(i, s) are given by c(i, s) = (s ? i + 1)/s, i = 1, . . . , s, the algorithm plays Y?t = (4, 3, 6), but Yt is {1, 3, 8}. In this case, |Yt \ Y?t | = 2, and P ? ? i?Y?t \Yt c(ji , |Yt |) = 3/3 + 1/3, i.e., the cost for mistakingly playing class 4 in the top slot of Yt is more damaging than mistakingly playing class 6 in the third slot. In the special case when all costs are unitary, there is no longer need to view Y?t as an ordered collection, and the above loss reduces to a standard Hamming-like loss between sets Yt and Y?t , i.e., a |Yt \ Y?t | + (1 ? a) |Y?t \ Yt |. Notice that the partial feedback Y?t ? Yt allows the algorithm to know which of the chosen classes in Y?t are good or bad (and to what extent, because of the selected ordering within Y?t ). Yet, the algorithm does not observe the value of `a,c (Yt , Y?t ) because Yt \ Y?t remains hidden. Working with the above loss function makes the algorithm?s output Y?t become a ranked list of classes, where ranking is restricted to the deemed relevant classes only. In our setting, only a relevance feedback among the selected classes is observed (the set Yt ? Y?t ), but no supervised ranking information (e.g., in the form of pairwise preferences) is provided to the algorithm within this set. Alternatively, we can think of a ranking framework where restrictions on the size of Y?t are set by an exogenous (and possibly time-varying) parameter of the problem, and the algorithm is required to provide a ranking complying with these restrictions. More on the connection to the ranking setting with partial feedback is in Section 4. The problem arises as to which noise model we should adopt so as to encompass significant real-world settings while at the same time affording efficient implementation of the resulting algorithms. For any subset Yt ? [K], we let (y1,t , . . . , yK,t ) ? {0, 1}K be the corPK responding indicator vector. Then it is  easy  to see that `a,c (Yt , Y?t ) = a i=1 yi,t + (1 ?  P a) c(ji , |Y?t |) ? a + c(ji , |Y?t |) yi,t . Moreover, because the first sum does not de? i?Yt 1?a 3 pend on Y?t , for the sake of optimizing over Y?t we can equivalently define    X a `a,c (Yt , Y?t ) = (1 ? a) c(ji , |Y?t |) ? 1?a + c(ji , |Y?t |) yi,t . (1) i?Y?t Let Pt (?) be a shorthand for the conditional probability Pt (? | xt ), where the side information vector xt can in principle be generated by an adaptive adversary as a function of the past. Then Pt (y1,t , . . . , yK,t ) = P(y1,t , . . . , yK,t | xt ), where the marginals Pt (yi,t = 1) satisfy1 Pt (yi,t = 1) = g(?u> i xt ) , x ) + g(?u> g(u> t i xt ) i i = 1, . . . , K, (2) for some K vectors u1 , . . . , uK ? Rd and some (known) function g : D ? R ? R+ . The d model is well defined if u> i x ? D for all i and all x ? R chosen by the adversary. We assume for the sake of simplicity that ||xt || = 1 for all t. Notice that at this point the variables yi,t need not be conditionally independent. We are only definining a family of allowed joint distributions Pt (y1,t , . . . , yK,t ) through the properties of their marginals Pt (yi,t ). The function g above will be instantiated to the negative derivative of a suitable convex and nonincreasing loss function L which our algorithm will be based upon. For instance, if L is the square loss L(?) = (1 ? ?)2 /2, then g(?) = 1 ? ?, resulting in Pt (yi,t = 1) = (1 + u> i xt )/2, under the assumption D = [?1, 1]. If L is the logistic loss L(?) = ln(1 + e?? ), then g(?) = (e? + 1)?1 , > > and Pt (yi,t = 1) = eui xt /(eui xt + 1), with domain D = R. Set for brevity ?i,t = u> i xt . Taking into account (1), this model allows us to write the (conditional) expected loss of the algorithm playing Y?t as    X a c(ji , |Y?t |) ? 1?a Et [`a,c (Yt , Y?t )] = (1 ? a) + c(ji , |Y?t |) pi,t , (3) g(?? ) i?Y?t i,t , and the expectation Et above is w.r.t. the generation of labels Yt , where pi,t = g(?i,t )+g(?? i,t ) conditioned on both xt , and all previous x and Y . A key aspect of this formalization is that the Bayes optimal ordered subset Yt? = argminY =(j1 ,j2 ,...,j|Y | )?[K] Et [`a,c (Yt , Y )] can be computed efficiently when knowing ?1,t , . . . , ?K,t . This is handled by the next lemma. In words, this lemma says that, in order to minimize (3), it suffices to try out all possible sizes s = 0, 1, . . . , K for Yt? ? that minimizes (3) over all sequences of size and, for each such value, determine the sequence Ys,t ? s. In turn, Ys,t can be computed just by sorting classes i ? [K] in decreasing order of pi,t , sequence ? being given by the first s classes in this sorted list.2 Ys,t Lemma 1. With the notation introduced so far, let pi1 ,t ? pi2 ,t ? . . . piK ,t be the sequence of pi,t ? sorted in nonincreasing order. Then we have that Yt? = argmins=0,1,...K Et [`a,c (Yt , Ys,t )], where ? ? Ys,t = (i1 , i2 , . . . , is ), and Y0,t = ?. Notice the way costs c(i, s) influence the Bayes optimal computation. We see from (3) that placing class i within Y?t in position ji is beneficial (i.e., it leads to a reduction of loss) if and only if pi,t > a c(ji , |Y?t |)/( 1?a + c(ji , |Y?t |)). Hence, the higher is the slot ij in Y?t the larger should be pi,t in order for this inclusion to be convenient.3 It is Yt? that we interpret as the true set of user preferences on xt . We would like to compete against the above Yt? in a cumulative regret sense, i.e., we would like to PT bound RT = t=1 Et [`a,c (Yt , Y?t )] ? Et [`a,c (Yt , Yt? )] with high probability. We use a similar but largely more general analysis than [4]?s, to devise an online second-order descent algorithm whose updating rule makes the comparison vector U = (u1 , . . . , uK ) ? RdK defined through (2) be Bayes optimal w.r.t. a surrogate convex loss L(?) such that g(?) = ?L0 (?). Observe that the expected loss function (3) is, generally speaking, nonconvex in the margins ?i,t (consider, for instance the logistic case g(?) = e?1+1 ). Thus, we cannot directly minimize this expected loss. 1 The reader familiar with generalized linear models will recognize the derivative of the function p(?) = as the (inverse) link function of the associated canonical exponential family of distributions [17]. Due to space limitations, all proofs are given in the supplementary material. 3 Notice that this depends on the actual size of Y?t , so we cannot decompose this problem into K independent problems. The decomposition does occur if the costs c(i, s) are constants, independent of i and s, and the criterion for inclusion becomes pi,t ? ?, for some constant threshold ?. g(??) g(?)+g(??) 2 4 Parameters: loss parameters a ? [0, 1], cost values c(i, s), interval D = [?R, R], function g : D ? R, confidence level ? ? [0, 1]. Initialization: Ai,0 = I ? Rd?d , i = 1, . . . , K, wi,1 = 0 ? Rd , i = 1, . . . , K; For t = 1, 2 . . . , T : 1. Get instance xt ? Rd : ||xt || = 1; 0 b 0i,t = x> 2. For i ? [K], set ? t w i,t , where ? ?wi,t   > w0i,t = w> i,t xt ?R sign(w i,t xt ) ?wi,t ? A?1 ?1 i,t?1 xt > xt Ai,t?1 xt if w> i,t xt ? [?R, R], otherwise; 3. Output P     a Y?t = argminY =(j1 ,j2 ,...j|Y | )?[K] c(ji , |Y |) ? 1?a + c(ji , |Y |) pbi,t , i?Y where : pbi,t = b 0 +i,t ]D ) g(?[? i,t b 0 +i,t ]D )+g(?[? b 0 +i,t ]D ) , g([? i,t i,t     12  c0L d c0L ?1 2 t?1 2i,t = x> ; + c00 c00 + 3L(?R) ln K(t+4) t Ai,t?1 xt U + (c00 )2 ln 1 + d ? L L L 4. Get feedback Yt ? Y?t ; ?1 0 1 5. For i ? [K], update Ai,t = Ai,t?1 + |si,t |xt x> t , w i,t+1 = w i,t ? c00 Ai,t ?i,t , where L si,t ? ? If i ? Yt ? Y?t ?1 = ?1 If i ? Y?t \ Yt = Y?t \ (Yt ? Y?t ) ? ?0 otherwise; b 0i,t ) si,t xt . and ?i,t = ?w L(si,t w> xt )|w=w0i,t = ?g(si,t ? Figure 1: The partial feedback algorithm in the (ordered) multiple label setting. 3 Algorithm and regret bounds In Figure 1 is our bandit algorithm for (ordered) multiple labels. The algorithm is based on replacing the unknown model vectors u1 , . . . , uK with prototype vectors w01,t , . . . , w0K,t , being w0i,t the timet approximation to ui , satisying similar constraints we set for the ui vectors. For the sake of brevity, b 0 = x> w0 , and ?i,t = u> xt , i ? [K]. The algorithm uses ? b 0 as proxies for the unwe let ? t i,t i,t i i,t b 0 + i,t ]D , derlying ?i,t according to the (upper confidence) approximation scheme ?i,t ? [? i,t where i,t ? 0 is a suitable upper-confidence level for class i at time t, and [?]D denotes the clipping-to-D operation, i.e., [x]D = max(min(x, R), ?R). The algorithm?s prediction at time t has the same form as the computation of the Bayes optimal sequence Yt? , where we replace g(??i,t ) the true (and unknown) pi,t = g(?i,t )+g(?? with the corresponding upper confidence proxy i,t ) pbi,t = b 0 +i,t ]D ) g(?[? i,t . Computing Y?t can be done by mimicking the computation of b 0 +i,t ]D )+g(?[? b 0 +i,t ]D ) g([? i,t i,t Bayes optimal Yt? (just replace pi,t the by pbi,t ), i.e., order of K log K running time per prediction. Thus the algorithm is producing a ranked list of relevant classes based on upper-confidence-corrected b0 scores pbi,t . Class i is deemed relevant and ranked high among the relevant ones when either ? i,t is a good approximation to ?i,t and pi,t is large, or when the algorithm is not very confident on its own approximation about i (that is, the upper confidence level i,t is large). The algorithm receives in input the loss parameters a and c(i, s), the model function g(?) and the associated margin domain D = [?R, R], and maintains both K positive definite matrices Ai,t of dimension d (initially set to the d ? d identity matrix), and K weight vector wi,t ? Rd (initially set to the zero vector). At each time step t, upon receiving the d-dimensional instance vector xt the algorithm uses the weight vectors wi,t to compute the prediction vectors w0i,t . These vectors can easily be seen as the result of projecting wi,t onto the space of w where |w> xt | ? R w.r.t. the distance function di,t?1 , i.e., w0i,t = argminw?Rd : w> xt ?D di,t?1 (w, wi,t ), i ? [K], where di,t (u, w) = (u ? w)> Ai,t (u ? w) . Vectors w0i,t are then used to produce prediction values b 0 involved in the upper-confidence calculation of Y?t ? [K]. Next, the feedback Yt ? Y?t is ? i,t observed, and the algorithm in Figure 1 promotes all classes i ? Yt ? Y?t (sign si,t = 1), demotes 5 all classes i ? Y?t \ Yt (sign si,t = ?1), and leaves all remaining classes i ? / Y?t unchanged (sign si,t = 0). The update w0i,t ? wi,t+1 is based on the gradients ?i,t of a loss function L(?) satisfying L0 (?) = ?g(?). On the other hand, the update Ai,t?1 ? Ai,t uses the rank one matrix4 xt x> t . In both the update of w0i,t and the one involving Ai,t?1 , the reader should observe the role played by the signs si,t . Finally, the constants c0L and c00L occurring in the expression for 2i,t are related to smoothness properties of L(?) ? see next theorem. Theorem 2. Let L : D = [?R, R] ? R ? R+ be a C 2 (D) convex and nonincreasing function of its argument, (u1 , . . . , uK ) ? RdK be defined in (2) with g(?) = ?L0 (?) for all ? ? D, and such that kui k ? U for all i ? [K]. Assume there are positive constants cL , c0L and c00L such that: 0 00 (??)+L00 (?) L0 (??) i. L (?) L ? ?cL and ii. (L0 (?))2 ? c0L , and iii. L00 (?) ? c00L hold for all (L0 (?)+L0 (??))2 ? ? D. Then the cumulative regret RT of the algorithm in Figure 1 satisfies, with probability at least 1 ? ?, q   RT = O (1 ? a) cL K T C d ln 1 + Td ,      c0 d c0 KT where C = O U 2 + (c00 L)2 ln 1 + Td + (c00L)2 + L(?R) . ln 00 c ? L L L It is easy to see that when L(?) is the square loss L(?) = (1 ? ?)2 /2 and D = [?1, 1], we have cL = 1/2, c0L = 4 and c00L = 1; when L(?) is the logistic loss L(?) = ln(1 + e?? ) and x ?x 1 D = [?R, R], we have cL = 1/4, c0L ? 1 and c00L = 2(1+cosh(R)) , where cosh(x) = e +e . 2 Remark 1. A drawback of Theorem 2 is that, in order to properly set the upper confidence levels i,t , we assume prior knowledge of the norm upper bound U . Because this information is often unavailable, we present here a simple modification to the algorithm that copes with this limitation. We change the definition of 2i,t in Figure 1 to 2i,t = ) (     12  c0 2 d c0L K(t+4) t?1 2 > ?1 , 4 R . This immedimax x Ai,t?1 x (c00 )2 ln 1 + d + c00 cL00 + 3L(?R) ln ? L L L ately leads to the following result. Theorem 3. With the same assumptions and notation as in Theorem 2, if we replace 2i,t as explained above we have that, with probability at least 1 ? ?, RT satisfies q    00 2 2    (cL ) U RT = O (1 ? a) cL K T C d ln 1 + Td + (1 ? a) cL K R d exp ? 1 . 0 c d L 4 On ranking with partial feedback As Lemma 1 points out, when the cost values c(i, s) in `a,c are stricly decreasing then the Bayes optimal ordered sequence Yt? on xt can be obtained by sorting classes in decreasing values of pi,t , and then decide on a cutoff point5 induced by the loss parameters, so as to tell relevant classes g(??) is increasing in ?, this ordering apart from irrelevant ones. In turn, because p(?) = g(?)+g(??) corresponds to sorting classes in decreasing values of ?i,t . Now, if parameter a in `a,c is very close6 to 1, then |Yt? | = K, and the algorithm itself will produce ordered subsets Y?t such that |Y?t | = K. Moreover, it does so by receiving full feedback on the relevant classes at time t (since Yt ? Y?t = Yt ). As is customary (e.g., [6]), one can view any multilabel assignment Y = (y1 , . . . , yK ) ? {0, 1}K as a ranking among the K classes in the most natural way: i preceeds j if and only if yi > yj . The (unnormalized) ranking loss function `rank (Y, fb) between the multilabel Y and a ranking function fb : Rd ? RK , representing degrees of class relevance sorted in a decreasing order fbj1 (xt ) ? fbj2 (xt ) ? . . . ? fbjK (xt ) ? 0, counts the number of class pairs that disagree   P b b in the two rankings: `rank (Y, f ) = {fi (xt ) < fbj (xt )} + 1 {fbi (xt ) = fbj (xt )} , i,j?[K] : yi >yj 2 2 Notice that A?1 i,t can be computed incrementally in O(d ) time per update. [4] and references therein also use diagonal approximations thereof, reporting good empirical performance with just O(d) time per update. 5 This is called the zero point in [9]. 6 If a = 1, the algorithm only cares about false negative mistakes, the best strategy being always predicting Y?t = [K]. Unsurprisingly, this yields zero regret in both Theorems 2 and 3. 4 6 where {. . .} is the indicator function of the predicate at argument. As pointed out in [6], the ranking function fb(xt ) = (p1,t , . . . , pK,t ) is also Bayes optimal w.r.t. `rank (Y, fb), no matter if the class labels yi are conditionally independent or not. Hence we can use this algorithm for tackling ranking problems derived from multilabel ones, when the measure of choice is `rank and the feedback is full. In fact, a partial information version of the above can easily be obtained. Suppose that at each time t, the environment discloses both xt and a maximal size St for the ordered subset Y?t = (j1 , j2 , . . . , j|Y?t | ) (both xt and St can be chosen adaptively by an adversary). Here St might be the number of available slots in a webpage or the number of URLs returned by a search engine in response to query xt . Then it is plausible to compete in a regret sense against the best time-t offline ranking of the form f (xt ) = (f1 (xt ), f2 (xt ), . . . , fh (xt ), 0, . . . , 0), with h ? St . Further, the ranking loss could be reasonably restricted to count the number of class pairs disagreeing within Y?t plus a quantity related to number of false negative mistakes. E.g., if fbj1 (xt ) ? fbj2 (xt ) ? . . . ? fbj|Y? | (xt ), t we can set (the factor St below serves as balancing the contribution of the two main terms):   P `rank,t (Y, fb) = i,j?Y?t : yi >yj {fbi (xt ) < fbj (xt )} + 21 {fbi (xt ) = fbj (xt )} + St |Yt \ Y?t | . Q It is not hard to see that if classes are conditionally independent, Pt (y1,t , ..., yK,t ) = i?[K] pi,t , then the Bayes optimal ranking for `rank,t is given by f ? (xt ; St ) = (pi1 ,t , . . . , piSt ,t , 0, . . . , 0). If we put on the argmin (Step 3 in Figure 1) the further constraint |Y | ? St (we are still sorting classes according to decreasing values of pbi,t ), one can prove the following ranking version of Theorem 2. Theorem 4. With the same assumptions and notation Qas in Theorem 2, let the classes in [K] be conditionally independent, i.e., Pt (y1,t , ..., yK,t ) = i?[K] pi,t for all t, and let the cumulative regret RT w.r.t. `rank,t be defined as PT RT = t=1 Et [`rank,t (Yt , (b pj1 ,t , ..., pbjSt ,t , 0, ..., 0))] ? Et [`rank,t (Yt , (pi1,t , ..., piSt ,t , 0, ..., 0))], where pbj1 ,t ? . . . ? pbjSt ,t ? 0 and pi1 ,t ? . . . ? piSt ,t ? 0. Then, with probability at least 1 ? ?,  q  we have RT = O cL S K T C d ln 1 + Td , where S = maxt=1,...,T St . The proof (see the appendix) is very similar to the one of Theorem 2. This suggests that, to some extent, we are decoupling the label generating model from the loss function ` under consideration. Notice that the linear dependence on the total number?of classes K (which is often much larger than S in a multilabel/ranking problem) is replaced by SK. One could get similar benefits out of Theorem 2. Finally, one could also combine Theorem 4 with the argument contained in Remark 1. 5 Experiments and conclusions The experiments we report here are meant to validate the exploration-exploitation tradeoff implemented by our algorithm under different conditions (restricted vs. nonrestricted number of classes), loss measures (`a,c , `rank,t , and Hamming loss) and model/parameter settings (L = square loss, L = logistic loss, with varying R). Datasets. We used two multilabel datasets. The first one, called Mediamill, was introduced in a video annotation challenge [21]. It comprises 30,993 training samples and 12,914 test ones. The number of features d is 120, and the number of classes K is 101. The second dataset is Sony CSL Paris [18], made up of 16,452 train samples and 16,519 test samples, each sample being described by d = 98 features. The number of classes K is 632. In both cases, feature vectors have been normalized to unit L2 norm. Parameter setting and loss measures. We used the algorithm in Figure 1 with two different loss functions, the square loss and the logistic loss, and varied the parameter R for the latter. The setting of the cost function c(i, s) depends on the task at hand, and for this preliminary experiments we decided to evaluate two possible settings only. The first one, denoted by ?decreasing c? is , i = 1, . . . , s, the second one, denoted by ?constant c?, is c(i, s) = 1, for all i and c(i, s) = s?i+1 s s. In all experiments, the a parameter was set to 0.5, so that `a,c with constant c reduces to half the Hamming loss. In the decreasing c scenario, we evaluated the performance of the algorithm on the loss `a,c that the algorithm is minimizing, but also its ability to produce meaningful (partial) 7 Sony CSL Paris ? Hamming loss and constant c Final Average Hamming loss 50 100 50 33 OBR Square Logistic (R=1.5) Logistic (R=2.0) Logistic (R=2.5) Logistic (R=3.0) 32 31 Final Average Rank loss / S Square Logistic (R=1.5) Logistic (R=2.0) Logistic (R=2.5) Logistic (R=3.0) Running average la,c Sony CLS Paris ? Ranking loss 55 Sony CSL Paris ? Loss(a,c) and decreasing c 150 45 40 30 29 28 27 OBR Square Logistic (R=1.5) Logistic (R=2.0) Logistic (R=2.5) Logistic (R=3.0) 26 35 25 0 0 10 1 10 2 3 4 10 10 Number of samples 10 30 0 10 5 10 1 24 2 10 10 5 10 15 S 20 S 25 30 35 Figure 2: Experiments on the Sony CSL Paris dataset. 2 7 Final Average Hamming loss 6.5 15 10 6 OBR Square Logistic (R=1.5) Logistic (R=2.0) Logistic (R=2.5) Logistic (R=3.0) 1.8 Final Average Rank loss / S Square Logistic (R=1.5) Logistic (R=2.0) Logistic (R=2.5) Logistic (R=3.0) 20 Running average la,c Mediamill ? Ranking loss Mediamill ? Hamming loss and constant c Mediamill ? Loss(a,c) and decreasing c 25 5.5 5 4.5 4 OBR Square Logistic (R=1.5) Logistic (R=2.0) Logistic (R=2.5) Logistic (R=3.0) 1.6 1.4 1.2 5 3.5 0 0 10 1 10 2 3 10 10 Number of samples 4 10 5 10 1 3 0 10 1 10 S 2 10 5 10 15 S 20 25 Figure 3: Experiments on the Mediamill dataset. rankings through `rank,t . On the constant c setting, we evaluated the Hamming loss. As is typical of multilabel problems, the label density, i.e., the average fraction of labels associated with the examples, is quite small. For instance, on Mediamill this is 4.3%. Hence, it is clearly beneficial to impose an upper bound S on |Y?t |. For the constant c and ranking loss experiments we tried out different values of S, and reported the final performance. Baseline. As baseline, we considered a full information version of Algorithm 1 using the square loss, that receives after each prediction the full array of true labels Yt for each sample. We call this algorithm OBR (Online Binary Relevance), because it is a natural online adaptation of the binary relevance algorithm, widely used as a baseline in the multilabel literature. Comparing to OBR stresses the effectiveness of the exploration/exploitation rule above and beyond the details of underlying generalized linear predictor. OBR was used to produce subsets (as in the Hamming loss case), and restricted rankings (as in the case of `rank,t ). Results. Our results are summarized in Figures 2 and 3. The algorithms have been trained by sweeping only once over the training data. Though preliminary in nature, these experiments allow us to draw a few conclusions. Our results for the avarage `a,c (Yt , Y?t ) with decreasing c are contained in the two left plots. We can see that the performance is improving over time on both datasets, as predicted by Theorem 2. In the middle plots are the final cumulative Hamming losses with constant c divided by the number of training samples, as a function of S. Similar plots are on the right with the final average ranking losses `rank,t divided by S. In both cases we see that there is an optimal value of S that allows to balance the exploration and the exploitation of the algorithm. Moreover the performance of our algorithm is always pretty close to the performance of OBR, even if our algorithm is receiving only partial feedback. In many experiments the square loss seems to give better results. Exception is the ranking loss on the Mediamill dataset (Figure 3, right). Conclusions. We have used generalized linear models to formalize the exploration-exploitation tradeoff in a multilabel/ranking setting with partial feedback, providing T 1/2 -like regret bounds under semi-adversarial settings. Our analysis decouples the multilabel/ranking loss at hand from the label-generation model. Thanks to the usage of calibrated score values pbi,t , our algorithm is capable of automatically inferring where to split the ranking between relevant and nonrelevant classes [9], the split being clearly induced by the loss parameters in `a,c . We are planning on using more general label models that explicitly capture label correlations to be applied to other loss functions (e.g., F-measure, 0/1, average precision, etc.). We are also planning on carrying out a more thorough experimental comparison, especially to full information multilabel methods that take such correlations into account. Finally, we are currenty working on extending our framework to structured output tasks, like (multilabel) hierarchical classification. 8 References [1] Y. Abbasi-Yadkori, D. Pal, and C. Szepesv?ari. Improved algorithms for linear stochastic bandits. In 25th NIPS, 2011. [2] K. Amin, M. Kearns, and U. Syed. Graphical models for bandit problems. In UAI, 2011. [3] P. Auer. Using confidence bounds for exploitation-exploration trade-offs. JMLR, 3, 2003. [4] K. Crammer and C. Gentile. Multiclass classification with bandit feedback using adaptive regularization. In 28th ICML, 2011. [5] V. Dani, T. Hayes, and S. Kakade. Stochastic linear optimization under bandit feedback. In 21th Colt, 2008. [6] K. Dembczynski, W. Waegeman, W. Cheng, and E. Hullermeier. On label dependence and loss minimization in multi-label classification. Machine Learning, to appear. [7] S. Filippi, O. Capp?e, A. Garivier, and C. Szepesv?ari. Parametric bandits: The generalized linear case. In NIPS, pages 586?594, 2010. [8] Y. Freund, R. D. Iyer, R. E. Schapire, and Y. Singer. An efficient boosting algorithm for combining preferences. JMLR, 4:933?969, 2003. [9] J. Furnkranz, E. Hullermeier, E. Loza Menca, and K. Brinker. Multilabel classification via calibrated label ranking. Machine Learning, 73:133?153, 2008. [10] E. Hazan and S. Kale. Online submodular minimization. In NIPS 22, 2009. [11] E. Hazan and S. Kale. Newtron: an efficient bandit algorithm for online multiclass prediction. In NIPS, 2011. [12] R. Herbrich, T. Graepel, and K. Obermayer. Large margin rank boundaries for ordinal regression. In Advances in Large Margin Classifiers. MIT Press, 2000. [13] S. Kakade, S. Shalev-Shwartz, and A. Tewari. Efficient bandit algorithms for online multiclass prediction. In 25th ICML, 2008. [14] S. Kale, L. Reyzin, and R. Schapire. Non-stochastic bandit slate problems. In 24th NIPS, 2010. [15] A. Krause and C. S. Ong. Contextual gaussian process bandit optimization. In 25th NIPS, 2011. [16] T. H. Lai and H. Robbins. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math, 6, 1985. [17] P. McCullagh and J.A. Nelder. Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall, 1989. [18] F. Pachet and P. Roy. Improving multilabel analysis of music titles: A large-scale validation of the correction approach. IEEE Trans. on Audio, Speech, and Lang. Proc., 17(2):335?343, February 2009. [19] P. Shivaswamy and T. Joachims. Online structured prediction via coactive learning. In 29th ICML, 2012, to appear. [20] A. Slivkins, F. Radlinski, and S. Gollapudi. Learning optimally diverse rankings over large document collections. In 27th ICML, 2010. [21] C. G. M. Snoek, M. Worring, J.C. van Gemert, J.-M. Geusebroek, and A. W. M. Smeulders. The challenge problem for automated detection of 101 semantic concepts in multimedia. In Proc. of the 14th ACM international conference on Multimedia, MULTIMEDIA ?06, pages 421?430, New York, NY, USA, 2006. [22] M. Streeter, D. Golovin, and A. Krause. Online learning of assignments. In 23rd NIPS, 2009. [23] G. Tsoumakas, I. Katakis, and I. Vlahavas. Random k-labelsets for multilabel classification. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 23:1079?1089, 2011. 9
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Transelliptical Graphical Models Fang Han Department of Biostatistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21210 [email protected] Han Liu Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering Princeton University, NJ 08544 [email protected] Cun-hui Zhang Department of Statistics Rutgers University Piscataway, NJ 08854 [email protected] Abstract We advocate the use of a new distribution family?the transelliptical?for robust inference of high dimensional graphical models. The transelliptical family is an extension of the nonparanormal family proposed by Liu et al. (2009). Just as the nonparanormal extends the normal by transforming the variables using univariate functions, the transelliptical extends the elliptical family in the same way. We propose a nonparametric rank-based regularization estimator which achieves the parametric rates of convergence for both graph recovery and parameter estimation. Such a result suggests that the extra robustness and flexibility obtained by the semiparametric transelliptical modeling incurs almost no efficiency loss. We also discuss the relationship between this work with the transelliptical component analysis proposed by Han and Liu (2012). 1 Introduction We consider the problem of learning high dimensional graphical models. In a typical setting, a d-dimensional random vector X = (X1 , ..., Xd )T can be represented as an undirected graph denoted by G = (V, E), where V contains nodes corresponding to the d variables in X, and the edge set E describes the conditional independence relationship among X1 , ..., Xd . Let X\{i,j} := {Xk : k 6= i, j}. We say the joint distribution of X is Markov to G if Xi is independent of Xj given X\{i,j} for all (i, j) ? / E. While often G is assumed given, here we want to estimate it from data. Most graph estimation methods rely on the Gaussian graphical models, in which the random vector X is assumed to be Gaussian: X ? Nd (?, ?). Under this assumption, the graph G is encoded by the precision matrix ? := ??1 . More specifically, no edge connects Xj and Xk if and only if ?jk = 0. This problem of estimating G is called covariance selection [5]. In low dimensions where d < n, [6, 7] develop a multiple testing procedure for identifying the sparsity pattern of the precision matrix. In high dimensions where d  n, [21] propose a neighborhood pursuit approach for estimating Gaussian graphical models by solving a collection of sparse regression problems using the Lasso [25, 3]. Such an approach can be viewed as a pseudo-likelihood approximation of the full likelihood. In contrast, [1, 30, 10] propose a penalized likelihood approach to directly estimate ?. [15, 14, 24] maximize the non-concave penalized likelihood to obtain an estimator with less bias than the traditional L1 -regularized estimator. Under the irrepresentable conditions [33, 31, 27], [22, 23] study the theoretical properties of the penalized likelihood methods. More recently, [29, 2] propose the graphical Dantzig selector and CLIME, which can be solved by linear programming and possess more favorable theoretical properties than the penalized likelihood approach. 1 Besides Gaussian models, [18] propose a semiparametric procedure named nonparanormal SKEP TIC which extends the Gaussian family to the more flexible semiparametric Gaussian copula family. Instead of assuming X follows a Gaussian distribution, they assume there exists a set of monotone functions f1 , . . . , fd , such that the transformed data f (X) := (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T is Gaussian. More details can be found in [18]. [32] has developed a scalable software package to implement these algorithms. In another line of research, [26] extends the Gaussian graphical models to the elliptical graphical models. However, for elliptical distributions, only the generalized partial correlation graph can be reliably estimated. These graphs only represent the conditional uncorrelatedness, but conditional independence, among variables. Therefore, by extending the Gaussian to the elliptical family, the gain in modeling flexibility is traded off with a loss in the strength of inference. In a related work, [9] provide a latent variable interpretation of the generalized partial correlation graph for multivariate t-distributions. An EM-type algorithm is proposed to fit the model for high dimensional data. However, the theoretical properties of their estimator is unknown. In this paper, we introduce a new distribution family named transelliptical graphical model. A key concept is the transelliptical distribution [12]. The transelliptical distribution is a generalization of the nonparanormal distribution proposed by [18]. By mimicking how the nonparanormal extends the normal family, the transelliptical extends the elliptical family in the same way. The transelliptical family contains the nonparanomral family and elliptical family. To infer the graph structure, a rankbased procedure using the Kendall?s tau statistic is proposed. We show such a procedure is adaptive over the transelliptical family: the procedure by default delivers a conditional uncorrelated graphs among certain latent variables; however, if the true distribution is the nonparanormal, the procedure automatically delivers the conditional independence graph. Computationally, the only extra cost is a one-pass data sort, which is almost negligible. Theoretically, even though the transelliptical family is much larger than the nonparanormal family, the same parametric rates of convergence for graph recovery and parameter estimation can be established. These results suggest that the transelliptical graphical model can be used routinely as a replacement of the nonparanormal models. Thorough numerical results are provided to back up our theory. 2 Background on Elliptical Distributions d Let X and Y be two random variables, we denote by X = Y if they have the same distribution. Definition 2.1 (elliptical distribution [8]). Let ? ? Rd and ? ? Rd?d with rank(?) = q ? d. A d-dimensional random vector X has an elliptical distribution, denoted by X ? ECd (?, ?, ?), if it d has a stochastic representation: X = ? + ?AU , where U is a random vector uniformly distributed on the unit sphere in Rq , ? ? 0 is a scalar random variable independent of U , A ? Rd?q is a deterministic matrix such that AAT = ?. Remark 2.1. An equivalent definition of an elliptical distribution is that its characteristic function can be written as exp(itT ?)?(tT ?t), where ? is a properly-defined characteristic function which has a one-to-one mapping with ? in Definition 2.1. In this setting we denote by X ? ECd (?, ?, ?). An elliptical distribution does not necessarily have a density. One example is the rank-deficient Gaussian. More examples can be found in [11]. However, when the random variable ? is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure and ? is non-singular, the density of X exists and has the form  p(x) = |?|?1/2 g (x ? ?)T ??1 (x ? ?) , (1) where g(?) is a scale function uniquely determined by the distribution of ?. In this case, we can also denote it as X ? ECd (?, ?, g). Many multivariate distributions belong to the elliptical family. For example, when g(x) = (2?)?d/2 exp {?x/2}, X is d-dimensional Gaussian. Another important subclass is the multivariate t-distribution with the degrees of freedom v, in which, we choose   ? v+d 2 ? v+d c2v x 2 g(x) = cv 1 ? , (2) d v (v?) 2 ?( v2 ) where cv is a normalizing constant. The model family in Definition 2.1 is not identifiable. For example, given X ? ECd (?, ?, ?) with rank(?) = q, there will be multiple As corresponding to the same ?. i.e., there exist A1 6= A2 ? 2 Rd?q such that A1 AT1 = A2 AT2 = ?. For some constant c 6= 0, we define ? ? = ?/c and A? = c ? A, then ?AU = ? ? A? U . Therefore, the matrix ? is unique only up to a constant scaling. To make the model identifiable, we impose the condition that max{diag(?)} = 1. More discussions about the identifiability issue can be found in [12]. 3 Transelliptical Graphical Models In this paper we only consider distributions with continuous marginals. We introduce the transelliptical graphical models in analogy to the nonparanormal graphical models [19, 18]. The key concept is transelliptical distribution which is also introduced in [12]. However, the definition of transelliptical distribution in this paper is slightly more restrictive than that in [12] due to the complication of graphical modeling. More specifically, let d?d R+ : ?T = ?, diag(?) = 1, ?  0}, d := {? ? R (3) we define the transelliptical distribution as follows: Definition 3.1 (transelliptical distribution). A continuous random vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T is transelliptical, denoted by X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ), if there exists a set of monotone univariate functions f1 , . . . , fd and a nonnegative random variable ? satisfying P(? = 0) = 0, such that (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T ? ECd (0, ?, ?), where ? ? R+ d. (4) 1 Here, ? is called latent generalized correlation matrix . We then discuss the relationship between the transelliptical family with the nonparanormal family, which is defined as follows: Definition 3.2 (nonparanormal distribution). A ramdom vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T is nonparanormal, denoted by X ? N P Nd (?; f1 , . . . , fd ), if there exist monotone functions f1 , . . . , fd such that (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T ? Nd (0, ?), where ? ? R+ d is called latent correlation matrix. From Definitions 3.1 and 3.2, we see the transelliptical is a strict extension of the nonparanormal. Both families assume there exits a set of univariate transformations such that the transformed data follow a base distribution: the nonparanormal exploits a normal base distribution; while the transelliptical exploits an elliptical base distribution. In the nonparanormal, ? is the correlation matrix for the latent normal, therefore it is called latent correlation matrix; In the transelliptical, ? is the generalized correlation matrix for the latent elliptical distribution, therefore it is called latent generalized correlation matrix. We now define the transelliptical graphical models. Let X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) where ? ? R+ d is the latent generalized correlation matrix. In this paper, we always assume the second moment E? 2 < ?. We define ? := ??1 to be the latent generalized concentration matrix. Let ?jk be the element of ? on the j-th rowpand k-th column. We define the latent generalized partial correlation matrix ? as ?jk := ??jk / ?jj ? ?kk . Let diag(A) be the matrix A with off-diagonal elements replaced by zero and A1/2 be the squared root matrix of A. It is easy to see that ? = ?[diag(??1 )]?1/2 ??1 [diag(??1 )]?1/2 . (5) Therefore, ? has the same nonzero pattern as ??1 . We then define a undirected graph G = (V, E): the vertex set V contains nodes corresponding to the d variables in X, and the edge set E satisfies (Xj , Xk ) ? E if and only if ?jk 6= 0 for j, k = 1, . . . , d. R+ d (G) (6) R+ d Given a graph G, we define to be the set containing all the ? ? with zero entries at the positions specified by the graph G. The transelliptical graphical model induced by G is defined as: Definition 3.3 (transelliptical graphical model). The transelliptical graphical model induced by a graph G, denoted by P(G), is defined to be the set of distributions:  P(G) := all the transelliptical distributions T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) satisfying ? ? R+ d (G) . (7) In the rest of this section, we prove some properties of the transelliptical family and discuss the interpretation of the meaning of the graph G. This graph is called latent generalized partial correlation graph. First, we show the transelliptical family is closed under marginalization and conditioning. 1 One thing to note is that in [12], the condition that ? ? Rd+ is not required. 3 Lemma 3.1. Let X := (X1 , . . . , Xd )T ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ). The marginal and the conditional distributions of (X1 , X2 )T given the remaining variables are still transellpitical. Proof. Since X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ), we have (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T ? ECd (0, ?, ?). Let Zj := fj (Xj ) for j = 1, . . . , d. From Theorem 2.18 of [8], the marginal distribution of (Z1 , Z2 )T and the conditional distribution of (Z1 , Z2 )T given the remaining Z3 , . . . , Zd are both elliptical. By definition, the marginal distribution of (X1 , X2 )T is transelliptical. To see the conditional case, since X has continuous marginals and f1 , . . . , fd are monotone, the distribution of (X1 , X2 )T conditional on X\{1,2} is the same as conditional on Z\{1,2} . Combined with the fact that Z1 = f1 (X1 ), Z2 = f2 (X2 ), we know that (X1 , X2 )T | X\{1,2} follows a transelliptical distribution. From (5), we see the matrices ? and ? have the same nonzero pattern, therefore, they encode the same graph G. Let X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ). The next lemma shows that, if the second moment of X exists, the absence of an edge in the graph G is equivalent to the pairwise conditional uncorrelatedness of two corresponding latent variables. Lemma 3.2. Let X := (X1 , . . . , Xd )T ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) with E? 2 < ?, and Zj := fj (Xj ) for j = 1, . . . , d. ?jk = 0 if and only if Zj and Zk are conditionally uncorrelated given Z\{j,k} . Proof. Let Z := (Z1 , . . . , Zd )T . Since X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ), we have Z ? ECd (0, ?, ?). Therefore, the latent generalized correlation matrix ? is the generalized correlation matrix of the latent variable Z. It suffices to prove that, for elliptical distributions with E? 2 < ?, the generalized partial correlation matrix ? as defined in (5) encodes the conditional uncorrelatedness among the variables. Such a result has been proved in the section 2 of [26]. Let A, B, C ? {1, . . . , d}. We say C separates A and B in the graph G if any path from a node in A to a node in B goes through at least one node in C. We denote by XA the subvector of X indexed by A. The next lemma implies the equivalence between the pairwise and global conditional uncorrelatedness of the latent variables for the transelliptical graphical models. This lemma connects the graph theory with probability theory. Lemma 3.3. Let X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) be any element of the transelliptical graphical model P(G) satisfying E? 2 < ?. Let Z := (Z1 , . . . , Zd )T with Zj = fj (Xj ) and A, B, C ? {1, . . . , d}. Then C separates A and B in G if and only if ZA and ZB are conditional uncorrelated given ZC . Proof. By definition, we know Z ? ECd (0, ?, ?). It then suffices to show the pairwise conditional uncorrelatedness implies the global conditional uncorrelatedness for the elliptical family. This follows from the same induction argument as in Theorem 3.7 of [16]. Compared with the nonparanormal graphical model, the transelliptical graphical model gains a lot on modeling flexibility, but at the price of inferring a weaker notion of graphs: a missing edge in the graph only represents the conditional uncorrelatedness of the latent variables. The next lemma shows that we do not lose any thing compared with the nonparanormal graphical model. The proof of this lemma is simple and is omitted. Some related discussions can be found in [19]. Lemma 3.4. Let X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) be a member of the transelliptical graphical model P(G). If X is also nonparanormal, the graph G encodes the conditional independence relationship of X (In other words, the distribution of X is Markov to G). 4 Rank-based Regularization Estimator In this section, we propose a nonparametric rank-based regularization estimator which achieves the optimal parametric rates of convergence for both graph recovery and parameter estimation. The main idea of our procedure is to treat the marginal transformation functions fj and the generating variable ? as nuisance parameters, and exploit the nonparametric Kendall?s tau statistic to directly estimate the latent generalized correlation matrix ?. The obtained correlation matrix estimate is then plugged into the CLIME procedure to estimate the sparse latent generalized concentration matrix ?. From the previous discussion, we know the graph G is encoded by the nonzero pattern of ?. We b then get a graph estimator by thresholding the estimated ?. 4 4.1 The Kendall?s tau Statistic and its Invariance Property Let x1 , . . . , xn ? Rd be n observations of a random vector X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ). Our task is to estimate the latent generalized concentration matrix ? := ??1 . The Kendall?s tau is defined as:    X 0 0 2 ?bjk = xik ? xik , (8) sign xij ? xij n(n ? 1) 0 1?i<i ?n which is a monotone transformation-invariant correlation between the empirical realizations of two ej and X ek be two independent copies of Xj and Xk . The random variables Xj and Xk . Let X  ej ), sign(Xk ? X ek ) . population version of the Kendall?s tau statistic is ?jk := Corr sign(Xj ? X Let X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ), the following theorem from [12] illustrates an important relationship between the population Kendall?s tau statistic ?jk and the latent generalized correlation coefficient ?jk . Theorem 4.1 (Invariance Property of Kendall?s tau Statistic[12]). Let X := (X1 , . . . , Xd )T ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ). We denote ?jk to be the population Kendall?s tau statistic between Xj and Xk . Then ?jk = sin ?2 ?jk . 4.2 Rank-based Regularization Method We start with some notations. We denote by I(?) to be the indicator functionPand Id be the identity matrix. Given a matrix A, we define kAkmax := maxjk |Ajk | and kAk1 := jk |Ajk |. Motivated by Theorem 4.1, we define Sb = [Sbjk ] ? Rd?d to estimate ?: ?  ?bjk ? I(j 6= k) + I(j = k). Sbjk = sin 2 (9) We then plug Sb into the CLIME estimator [2] to get the final parameter and graph estimates. More specifically, the latent generalized concentration matrix ? can be estimated by solving X b = arg min b ? Id kmax ? ?, (10) ? |?jk | s.t. kS? ? j,k where ? > 0 is a tuning parameter. [2] show that this optimization can be decomposed into d vector minimization problems, each of which can be reformulated as a linear program. Thus it b is obtained, we can apply an additional has the potential to scale to very large problems. Once ? b = (V, E), b in thresholding step to estimate the graph G. For this, we define a graph estimator G b b which an edge (j, k) ? E if ?jk ? ?. Here ? is another tuning parameter. Compared with the original CLIME, the extra cost of our rank-based procedure is the computation of b which requires us to evaluate d(d ? 1)/2 pairwise Kendal?s tau statistics. A naive implementation S, of the Kendall?s tau requires O(n2 ) computation. However, efficient algorithm based on sorting and balanced binary trees has been developed to calculate the Kendall?s tau statistic with a computational complexity O(n log n) [4]. Therefore, the incurred computational burden is negligible. Remark 4.1. Similar rank-based procedures have been discussed in [19, 18, 28]. Unlike our work, they focus on the more restrictive nonparanromal family and discuss several rank-based procedures using the normal-score, Spearman?s rho, and Kendall?s tau. Unlike our results, they advocate the use of the Spearman?s rho and normal-score correlation coefficients. Their main concern is that, within the more restrictive nonparanormal family, the Spearman?s rho and normal-score correlations are slightly easier to compute and have smaller asymptotic variance. In constrast to their results, the new insight obtained from this current paper is that we advocate the usage of the Kendall?s tau due to its invariance property within the much larger transelliptical family. In fact, we can show that the Spearman?s rho is not invariant within the transelliptical family unless the true distribution is nonparanormal. More details on this issue can be found in [8]. 5 Asymptotic Properties We analyze the theoretical properties of the rank-based regularization estimator proposed in Section 4.2. Our main result shows: under the same conditions on ? that ensure the parameter estimation 5 and graph recovery consistency of the original CLIME estimator for Gaussian graphical models, our rank-based regularization procedure achieves exactly the same parametric rates of convergence for both parameter estimation and graph recovery for the much larger transelliptical family. This result suggests that the transelliptical graphical model can be used as a safe replacement of the Gaussian graphical models, the nonparanormal graphical models, and the elliptical graphical models. We introduce some P additional notations. Given a symmetric matrix A, for 0 ? q < 1, we define kAkLq := maxi j |Aij |q and the spectral norm kAkL2 to be its largest eigenvalue. We define Sd (q, s, M ) := {? : k?kL1 ? M and k?kLq ? s}. (11) For q = 0, the class Sd (0, s, M ) contains all the s-sparse matrices. Our main result is Theorem 5.1 ?1 Theorem 5.1. Let X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) with ? ? R+ ? Sd (q, S, M ) with d and ? := ? b 0 ? q < 1. Let ? be defined in (10). There exist constants C and C only depending on q, such 0 1 p that, whenever ? = C0 M (log d)/n, with probability no less than 1 ? d?2 , we have  (1?q)/2 b ? ?kL ? C1 M 2?2q ? s ? log d (Parameter estimation) k? (12) . 2 n b be the graph estimator defined in Section 4.2 with the additional tuning parameter ? = 4M ?. Let G If we further assume ? ? Sd (0, s, M ) and minj,k:|?jk |6=0 |?jk | ? 2?, then   b 6= G ? 1 ? o(1), (Graph recovery) P G (13) where G is the graph determined by the nonzero pattern of ?. Proof. The difference between the rank-based CLIME and the original CLIME is that we replace b by the Kendall?s tau matrix S. b By examing the proofs the Pearson correlation coefficient matrix R b is an exponential concentration inequality of Theorems 1 and 7 in [2], the only property needed of R   bjk ? ?jk | > t ? c1 exp(?c2 nt2 ) P |R . Therefore, it suffices if we can prove a similar concentration inequality for |Sbjk ? ?jk |. Since ?  ?  Sb = sin ?bjk ?jk , and ?jk = sin 2 2 we have |Sbjk ? ?jk | ? |b ?jk ? ? |. Therefore, we only need to prove  P (|b ?jk ? ?jk | > t) ? exp ?nt2 /(2?) . P 2 i i0 This result holds since ?bjk is a U-statistic: ?bjk = n(n?1) 1?i<i0 ?n K? (x , x ), where 0 0 0 K? (xi , xi ) = sign xij ? xij xik ? xik is a bounded kernel between -1 and 1. The result follows from the Hoeffding?s inequality for U-statistic [13]. 6 Numerical Experiments We investigate the empirical performance of the rank-based regularization estimator. We compare it with the following methods: (1) Pearson: the CLIME using the Pearson sample correlation; (2) Kendall: the CLIME using the Kendall?s tau; (3) Spearman: the CLIME using the Spearman?s rho; (4) NPN: the CLIME using the original nonparanormal correlation estimator [19]; (5) NS: the CLIME using the normal score correlation. The later three methods are discussed under the nonparanormal graphical model and we refer to [18] for detailed descriptions. 6.1 Simulation Studies We adopt the same data generating procedure as in [18]. To generate a d-dimensional sparse graph G = (V, E) where V = {1, . . . , d} correspond to variables X = (X1 , . . . , Xd ), we associate each (1) (2) (k) (k) index j ? {1, . . . , d} with a bivariate data point (Yj , Yj ) ? [0, 1]2 where Y1 , . . . , Yn ? Uniform[0, 1] for k = 1, 2. Each pair of vertices (i, j) is included in the edge set E with probability ? (1) (2) P((i, j) ? E) = exp(?kyi ?yj k2n /0.25)/ 2?, where yi := (yi , yi ) is the empirical observation (1) (2) of (Yi , Yi ) and k ? kn represents the Euclidean distance. We restrict the maximum degree of the 6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 TPR 0.2 1.0 0.6 TPR 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 TPR 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.2 0.2 FPR 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 TPR 1.0 0.8 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS FPR 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.0 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS FPR 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 FPR 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS FPR 0.0 0.2 0.8 TPR 1.0 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS FPR 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.4 0.2 FPR 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 FPR Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.8 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 1.0 0.0 0.2 FPR 0.4 0.6 0.8 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 0.2 0.6 FPR Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 0.0 0.4 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 0.2 0.2 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS 0.0 0.0 0.4 TPR 0.6 0.8 0.4 TPR 0.6 0.8 0.6 TPR 0.4 0.0 0.2 Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS Scheme 4 1.0 Scheme 3 1.0 Scheme 2 1.0 Scheme 1 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 FPR 0.6 0.8 1.0 FPR Figure 1: ROC curves for different methods in generating schemes 1 to 4 and different contamination level r = 0, 0.02, 0.05 (top, middle, bottom) using the CLIME. Here n = 400 and d = 100. graph to be 4 and build the inverse correlation matrix ? according to ?jk = 1 if j = k, ?jk = 0.145 if (j, k) ? E, and ?jk = 0 otherwise. The value 0.145 guarantees the positive definiteness of ?. Let ? = ??1 . To obtain the correlation matrix, we rescale ? so that all its diagonal elements are 1. In the simulated study we randomly sample n data points from a certain transelliptical distribution X ? T Ed (?, ?; f1 , . . . , fd ). We set d = 100. To determine the transelliptical distribution, we first generate ? as discussed in the previous paragraph. Secondly, three types of ? are considered: (1) ? (1) ? ?d , i.e., ? follows a chi-distribution with degree of freedom d; d (2) ? (2) = ?1? /?2? , ?1? ? ?d , ?2? ? ?1 , ?1? is independent of ?2? ; (3) ? (3) ? F (d, 1), i.e., ? follows an F -distribution with degree of freedom d and 1. Thirdly, two type of transformation functions f = {fj }dj=1 are considered: (1) linear transformation: f (1) = {f0 , . . . , f0 } with f0 (x) = x; (2) nonlinear transformation: f (2) = {f1 , . . . , fd } = {h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , . . .}, 3 sign(x)|x|1/2 ?1 ? ?R x6 , h?1 , h?1 where h?1 R 3 (x) := 4 (x) := 1 (x) := x, h2 (x) := ?R R ?(x)? ?(t)?(t)dt , R (?(y)? ?(t)?(t)dt)2 ?(y)dy ?R h?1 5 (x) := |t|?(t)dt t ?(t)dt R exp(x)? exp(t)?(t)dt . R (exp(y)? exp(t)?(t)dt)2 ?(y)dy We consider the following four data generating schemes: ? Scheme 1: X ? T Ed (?, ? (1) ; f (1) ), i.e., X ? N (0, ?). ? Scheme 2: X ? T Ed (?, ? (2) ; f (1) ), i.e., X follows the multivariate Cauchy. ? Scheme 3: X ? T Ed (?, ? (3) ; f (1) ), i.e., the distribution is highly related to the multivariate t. ? Scheme 4: X ? T Ed (?, ? (3) ; f (2) ). To evaluate the robustness of different methods, let r ? [0, 1) represent the proportion of samples being contaminated. For each dimension, we randomly select bnrc entries and replace them with 7 either 5 or -5 with equal probability. The final data matrix we obtained is X ? Rn?d . Here we pick r = 0, 0.02 or 0.05. Under the Scheme 1 to Scheme 4 with different levels of contamination (r = 0, 0.02 or 0.05), we repeatedly generate the data matrix X for 100 times and compute the averaged False Positive Rates and False Negative Rates using a path of tuning parameters ? from 0.01 to 0.5 and ? = 10?5 . The feature selection performances of different methods are evaluated by plotting (FPR(?), 1 ? FNR(?)). The corresponding ROC curves are presented in Figure 1. We see: (1) when the data are perfectly Gaussian without contamination, all methods perform well; (2) when data are non-Gaussian, with outliers existing or latent elliptical distribution different from the Gaussian, Kendall is better than the other methods in terms of achieving a lower FPR + FNR. 6.2 Equities Data We compare different methods on the stock price data from Yahoo! Finance (finance.yahoo. com). We collect the daily closing prices for 452 stocks that are consistently in the S&P 500 index between January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2008. This gives us altogether 1,257 data points, each data point corresponding to the vector of closing prices on a trading day. With St,j denoting the closing price of stock j on day t, we consider the variables Xtj = log (St,j /St?1,j ) and build graphs over the indices j. Though a time series, we treat the instances Xt as independent replicates. Pearson Kendall Spearman NPN NS Figure 2: The graph estimated from the S&P 500 stock data from Jan. 1, 2003 to Jan. 1, 2008 using Pearson, Kendall,Spearman, NPN, NS (left to right). The nodes are colored according to their GICS sector categories. The 452 stocks are categorized into 10 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors, including Consumer Discretionary (70 stocks), Consumer Staples (35 stocks), Energy (37 stocks), Financials (74 stocks), Health Care (46 stocks), Industrials (59 stocks), Information Technology (64 stocks) Telecommunications Services (6 stocks), , Materials (29 stocks), and Utilities (32 stocks). Figure 2 illustrates the estimated graphs using the same layout, the nodes are colored according to the GICS sector of the corresponding stock. The tuning parameter is automatically selected using a stability based approach named StARS [20]. We see that different methods get slightly different graphs. The layout is drawn by a force-based algorithm using the estimated graph from the Kendall. We see the stocks from the same GICS sector tends to be grouped with each other, suggesting that our method delivers an informative graph estimate. 7 Discussion and Comparison with Related Work The transelliptical distribution is also proposed by [12] for semiparametric scale-invariant principle component analysis. Though both papers are based on the transelliptical family, the core idea and analysis are fundamentally different. For scale-invariant principle component analysis, we impose structural assumption of the latent generalized correlation matrix; For graph estimation, we impose structural assumption on the latent generalized concentration matrix. Since the latent generalized correlation matrix encodes marginal uncorrelatedness while the latent generalized concentration matrix encodes conditional uncorrelatedness of the variables, the analysis of the population models are orthogonal and complementary to each other. In particular, for graphical models, we need to characterize the properties of marginal and conditional distributions of a transelliptical distribution. These properties are not needed for principle component analysis. Moreover, the model interpretation of the inferred transelliptical graph is very nontrivial. In a longer version technical report [17], we provide a three-layer hierarchal interpretation of the estimated transelliptical graphical model and sharply characterize the relationships between nonparnaormal, elliptical, meta-elliptical, and transelliptical families. This research was supported by NSF award IIS-1116730. 8 References [1] O. Banerjee, L. E. Ghaoui, and A. d?Aspremont. 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Calibrated Elastic Regularization in Matrix Completion Cun-Hui Zhang Department of Statistics and Biostatistics Rutgers University Piscataway, New Jersey 08854 [email protected] Tingni Sun Statistics Department, The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104 [email protected] Abstract This paper concerns the problem of matrix completion, which is to estimate a matrix from observations in a small subset of indices. We propose a calibrated spectrum elastic net method with a sum of the nuclear and Frobenius penalties and develop an iterative algorithm to solve the convex minimization problem. The iterative algorithm alternates between imputing the missing entries in the incomplete matrix by the current guess and estimating the matrix by a scaled soft-thresholding singular value decomposition of the imputed matrix until the resulting matrix converges. A calibration step follows to correct the bias caused by the Frobenius penalty. Under proper coherence conditions and for suitable penalties levels, we prove that the proposed estimator achieves an error bound of nearly optimal order and in proportion to the noise level. This provides a unified analysis of the noisy and noiseless matrix completion problems. Simulation results are presented to compare our proposal with previous ones. 1 Introduction Let ? ? IRd1 ?d2 be a matrix of interest and ?? = {1, . . . , d1 } ? {1, . . . , d2 }. Suppose we observe vectors (?i , yi ), yi = ??i + ?i , i = 1, . . . , n, (1) where ?i ? ?? and ?i are random errors. We are interested in estimating ? when n is a small fraction of d1 d2 . A well-known application of matrix completion is the Netflix problem where yi is the rating of movie bj by user ai for ? = (ai , bj ) ? ?? [1]. In such applications, the proportion of the observed entries is typically very small, so that the estimation or recovery of ? is impossible without a structure assumption on ?. In this paper, we assume that ? is of low rank. A focus of recent studies of matrix completion has been on a simpler formulation, also known as exact recovery, where the observations are assumed to be uncorrupted, i.e. ?i = 0. A direct approach is to minimize rank(M ) subject to M?i = yi . An iterative algorithm was proposed in [5] to project a trimmed SVD of the incomplete data matrix to the space of matrices of a fixed rank r. The nuclear norm was proposed as a surrogate for the rank, leading to the following convex minimization problem in a linear space [2]: n o b (CR) = arg min kM k(N ) : M? = yi ? i ? n . ? i M We denote the nuclear norm by k ? k(N ) here and throughout this paper. This procedure, analyzed in [2, 3, 4, 11] among others, is parallel to the replacement of the `0 penalty by the `1 penalty in solving the sparse recovery problem in a linear space. 1 In this paper, we focus on the problem of matrix completion with noisy observations (1) and take the exact recovery as a special case. P Since the exact constraint is no longer appropriate in the presence n of noise, penalized squared error i=1 (M?i ? yi )2 is considered. By reformulating the problem in Lagrange form, [8] proposed the spectrum Lasso n n nX o X b (MHT) = arg min ? M?2i /2 ? yi M?i + ?kM k(N ) , (2) M i=1 i=1 along with an iterative convex minimization algorithm. However, (2) is difficult to analyze the Pwhen n sample fraction ?0 = n/(d1 d2 ) is small, due to the ill-posedness of the quadratic term i=1 M?2i . This has led to two alternatives in [7] and [9]. While [9] proposed to minimize Pn (2) under an additional `? constraint on M , [7] modified (2) by replacing the quadratic term i=1 M?2i with ?0 kM k2(F ) . Both [7, 9] provided nearly optimal error bounds when the noise level is of no smaller order than the `? norm of the target matrix ?, but not of smaller order, especially not for exact recovery. In a different approach, [6] proposed a non-convex recursive algorithm and provided error bounds in proportion to the noise level. However, the procedure requires the knowledge of the rank r of the unknown ? and the error bound is optimal only when d1 and d2 are of the same order. Our goal is to develop an algorithm for matrix completion that can be as easily computed as the spectrum Lasso (2) and enjoys a nearly optimal error bound proportional to the noise level to continuously cover both the noisy and noiseless cases. We propose to use an elastic penalty, a linear combination of the nuclear and Frobenius norms, which leads to the estimator n n nX o X e = arg min ? M?2i /2 ? yi M?i + ?1 kM k(N ) + (?2 /2)kM k2(F ) , (3) M i=1 i=1 where k ? k(N ) and k ? k(F ) are the nuclear and Frobenius norms, respectively. We call (3) spectrum elastic net (E-net) since it is parallel to the E-net in linear regression, the least squares estimator with a sum of the `1 and `2 penalties, introduced in [15]. Here the nuclear penalty provides the sparsity in the spectrum, while the Frobenius penalty regularizes the inversion of the quadratic term. Meanwhile, since the Frobenius penalty roughly shrinks the estimator by a factor ?0 /(?0 + ?2 ), we correct this bias by a calibration step, b = (1 + ?2 /?0 )?. e ? (4) We call this estimator calibrated spectrum E-net. Motivated by [8], we develop an EM algorithm to solve (3) for matrix completion. The algorithm iteratively replaces the missing entries with those obtained from a scaled soft-thresholding singular value decomposition (SVD) until the resulting matrix converges. This EM algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the solution of (3). Under proper coherence conditions, we prove that for suitable penalty levels ?1 and ?2 , the calibrated spectrum E-net (4) achieves a desired error bound in the Frobenius norm. Our error bound is of nearly optimal order and in proportion to the noise level. This provides a sharper result than those of [7, 9] when the noise level is of smaller order than the `? norm of ?, and than that of [6] when d2 /d1 is large. Our simulation results support the use of the calibrated spectrum E-net. They illustrate that (4) performs comparably to (2) and outperforms the modified method of [7]. Our analysis of the calibrated spectrum E-net uses an inequality similar to a duel certificate bound in [3]. The bound in [3] requires sample size n  min{(r log d)2 , r(log d)6 }d log d, where d = d1 + d2 . We use the method of moments to remove a log d factor in the first component of their sample size requirement. This leads to a sample size requirement of n  r2 d log d, with an extra r in comparison to the ideal n  rd log d. Since the extra r does not appear in our error bound, its appearance in the sample size requirement seems to be a technicality. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we describe an iterative algorithm for the computation of the spectrum E-net and study its convergence. In Section 3, we derive error bounds for the calibrated spectrum E-net. Some simulation results are presented in Section 4. Section 5 provides the proof of our main result. We use the following notation throughout this paper. For matrices M ? Rd1 ?d2 , kM k(N ) is the nuclear norm (the sum of all singular values of M ), kM k(S) is the spectrum norm (the largest 2 singular value), kM k(F ) is the Frobenius norm (the `2 norm of vectorized M ), and kM k? = maxjk |Mjk |. Linear mappings from Rd1 ?d2 to Rd1 ?d2 are denoted by the calligraphic letters. For a linear mapping Q, the operator norm is kQk(op) = supkM k(F ) =1 kQM k(F ) . We equip Rd1 ?d2 with the inner product hM1 , M2 i = trace(M1> M2 ) so that hM, M i = kM k2(F ) . For projections P, P ? = I ? P with I being the identity. We denote by E? the unit matrix with 1 at ? ? {1, . . . , d1 } ? {1, . . . , d2 }, and by P? the projection to E? : M ? M? E? = hE? , M iE? . 2 An algorithm for spectrum elastic regularization We first present a lemma for the M-step of our iterative algorithm. Lemma 1 Suppose the matrix Z has rank r. The solution to the optimization problem o n arg min kZ ? W k2(F ) /2 + ?1 kZk(N ) + ?2 kZk2(F ) /2 Z is given by S(W ; ?1 , ?2 ) = U D?1 ,?2 V 0 with D?1 ,?2 = diag{(d1 ??1 )+ , . . . , (dr ??1 )+ }/(1+?2 ), where U DV 0 is the SVD of W , D = diag{d1 , . . . , dr } and t+ = max(t, 0). The minimization problem in Lemma 1 is solved by a scaled soft-thresholding SVD. This is parallel to Lemma 1 in [8] and justified by Remark 1 there. We use Lemma 1 to solve the M-step of the EM algorithm for the spectrum E-net (3). We still need an E-step to impute a complete matrix given the observed data {yi , ?i : i = 1, . . . , n}. Since ?i are allowed to have ties, we need the following notation. Let m? = #{i : ?i = ?, i ? n} be the multiplicity of observations at ? ? ?? and m? = max? m? be the maximum multiplicity. Suppose that the complete data is composed of m? observations at each ? for a certain integer m? . (com) (com) Let Y ? be the sample mean of the complete data at ? and Y be the matrix with components (com) Y? . If the complete data are available, (3) is equivalent to n o (com) arg min (m? /2)kY ? M k2(F ) + ?1 kM k(N ) + (?2 /2)kM k2(F ) . M (obs) Let Y ? = m?1 ? (obs) (Y ? )d1 ?d2 . In (obs) (m? /m? )Y ? + Y (imp) ?i =? yi be the sample mean of the observations at ? and Y the white noise model, the conditional expectation of Y (com) ? (obs) given Y = (obs) is (1 ? m? /m? )?? for m? ? m? . This leads to a generalized E-step: (imp) = (Y ? P (imp) )d1 ?d2 , Y ? (obs) = min{1, (m? /m? )}Y ? + (1 ? m? /m? )+ Z?(old) , (5) where Z (old) is the estimation of ? in the previous iteration. This is a genuine E-step when m? = m? but also allows a smaller m? to reduce the proportion of missing data. e in (3). We now present the EM-algorithm for the computation of the spectrum E-net ? Algorithm 1 Initialize with Z (0) and k = 0. Repeat the following steps: ? E-step: Compute Y (imp) in (5) with Z (old) = Z (k) and assign k ? k + 1, ? M-step: Compute Z (k) = S(Y (imp) ; ?1 /m? , ?2 /m? ), until kZ (k) ? Z (k?1) k2(F ) /kZ (k) k2(F ) ? . Then, return Z (k) . The following theorem states the convergence of Algorithm 1. Theorem 1 As k ? ?, Z (k) converges to a limit Z (?) as a function of the data and (?1 , ?2 , m? ), e for m? ? m? . and Z (?) = ? 3 Theorem 1 is a variation of a parallel result in [8] and follows from the same proof there. As [8] pointed out, a main advantage of Algorithm 1 is the speed of each iteration. When the maximum (obs) multiplicity m? is small, we simply use Z (0) = Y and m? = m? ; Otherwise, we may first run ? the EM-algorithm for an m? < m and use the output as the initialization Z (0) for a second run of the EM-algorithm with m? = m? . 3 Analysis of estimation accuracy In this section, we derive error bounds for the calibrated spectrum E-net. We need the following notation. Let r = rank(?), U DV > be the SVD of ?, and s1 ? . . . ? sr be the nonzero singular values of ?. Let T be the tangent space with respect to U V > , the space of all matrices of the form U U > M1 + M2 V V > . The orthogonal projection to T is given by PT M = U U > M + M V V > ? U U > M V V > . Pn Theorem 2 Let ? = 1 + ?2 /?0 and H = i=1 P?i . Define R = (H ? ?0 )PT /(?0 + ?2 ), ? = R(?2 ? + ?1 U V > ), (6) Q = I ? H(PT HPT + ?2 PT )?1 PT . Let ? = Pn i=1 ?i E?i . Suppose kPT Rk(op) ? 1/2, sr ? 5?1 /?2 , ? kPT ?k(F ) ? r?1 /8, k? ? R(PT R + PT )?1 PT ? (S) ? ?1 /4, ? kPT ?k(F ) ? r?1 /8, kQ?k(S) ? 3?1 /4, kPT? ?k(S) ? ?1 . (7) (8) (9) Then the calibrate spectrum E-net (4) satisfies ? b ? ?k(F ) ? 2 r?1 /?0 . k? (10) The proof of Theorem 2 is provided in Section 5. When ?i are random entries in ?? , EH = ?0 I, so that (8) and the first inequality of (7) are expected to hold under proper conditions. Since the rank of PT ? is no greater than 2r, (9) essentially requires k?k(S)  ?1 . Our analysis allows ?2 to lie in a certain range [?? , ?? ], and ?? /?? is large under proper conditions. Still, the choice of ?2 is constrained by (7) and (8) since ? is linear in ?2 . When ?2 /?0 diverges to infinity, the calibrated spectrum E-net (4) becomes the modified spectrum Lasso of [7]. Theorem 2 provides sufficient conditions on the target matrix and the noise for achieving a certain level of estimation error. Intuitively, these conditions on the target matrix ? must imply a certain level of coherence (or flatness) of the unknown matrix since it is impossible to distinguish the unknown from zero when the observations are completely outside its support. In [2, 3, 4, 11], coherence conditions are imposed on p ?0 = max{(d1 /r)kU U > k? , (d2 /r)kV V > k? }, ?1 = d1 d2 /rkU V > k? , (11) where U and V are matrices of singular vectors of ?. [9] considered a more general notation of spikiness of a matrix M , defined as the ratio between the `? and dimension-normalized `2 norms, p ?sp (M ) = kM k? d1 d2 /kM k(F ) . (12) Suppose in the rest of the section that ?i are iid points uniformly distributed in ?? and ?i are iid N (0, ? 2 ) variables independent of {?i }. The following theorem asserts that under certain coherence conditions on the matrices ?, U U > , V V > and U V > , all conditions of Theorem 2 hold with large probability when the sample size n is of the order r2 d log d. Theorem 3 Let d = d1 + d2 . Consider ?1 and ?2 satisfying ?1 = ? p 8?0 d log d, 1? ?2 k?k(F ) ? 2. ?1 {n/(d log d)}1/4 4 (13) Then, there exists a constant C such that n o 4/3 n ? C max ?20 r2 d log d, (?1 + r)?1 rd log d, (?sp ? ?4? )r2 d log d (14) implies b ? ?k2 /(d1 d2 ) ? 32(? 2 rd log d)/n k? (F ) with probability at least 1 ? 1/d2 , where ?0 and ?1 are the coherence constants in (11), ?sp = ?sp (?) is the spikiness of ? and ?? = k?k(F ) /(r1/2 sr ). We require the knowledge of noise level ? to determine the penalty level that is usually considered as tuning parameter in practice. The Frobenius norm k?k(F ) in (13) can be replaced by an estimate of the same magnitude in Theorem 3. In our simulation experiment, we use Pn ?2 = ?1 {n/(d log d)}1/4 /Fb with Fb = ( i=1 yi2 /?0 )1/2 . The Chebyshev inequality provides Fb/k?k(F ) ? 1 when ?sp = O(1) and ? 2  k?k2? . A key element in our analysis is to find a probabilistic bound for the second inequality of (8), or equivalently an upper bound for  P kR(PT R + PT )?1 (?2 ? + ?1 U V > )k(S) > ?1 /4 . (15) This guarantees the existence of a primal dual certificate for the spectrum E-net penalty [14]. For ?2 = 0, a similar inequality was proved in [3], where the sample size requirement is n ? C0 min{?2 r2 (log d)2 d, ?2 r(log d)6 d} for a certain coherence factor ?. We remove a log factor in the first bound, resulting in the sample size requirement in (14), which is optimal when r = O(1). For exact recovery in the noiseless case, the sample size n  rd(log d)2 is sufficient if a golfing scheme is used to construct an approximate dual certificate [4, 11]. We use the following lemma to bound (15). Pn ? Lemma 2 Let H = i=1 P?i where ?i are iid points uniformly distributed in ? . Let R = (H ? ?0 )PT /(?0 + ?2 ) and ? = 1 + ?2 /?0 . Let M be a deterministic matrix. Then, there exists a numerical constant C such that, for all k ? 1 and m ? 1, n okm  2m p ?2 2 2 ? 2km EkRk M k2m ? C? r dkm/n ? ( d d /r)kM k . (16) 1 2 ? 0 0 (S) We use a different graphical approach than those in [3] to bound E trace({(Rk M )> (Rk M )}m ) in the proof of Lemma 2. The rest of the proof of Theorem 3 can be outlined as follows. Assume that all coherence factors are O(1). Let M = ?2 ? + ?1 U V > and write R(PT R + PT )?1 M = ? ? RM ?R2 M +? ? ?+(?1)k ?1 Rk M +Rem. By?(16) with km  log d for k ? 2 and an even simpler bound for k = 1 and Rem, (15) holds when ( d1 d2 /r)kM k?  ?1 ?, where ?  r2 d(log d)/n. Since ?sp + ?1 + k?k2(F ) /(rs2r ) = O(1), this is equivalent to ?(sr ?2 /?1 + 1) . 1. Finally, we use matrix exponential inequalities [10, 12] to verify other conditions of Theorem 2. We omit technical details of the proof of Lemma 2 and Theorem 3. We would like to point out that if the r2 in (16) can be replaced by r(log d)? , e.g. ? = 5 in view of [3], the rest of the proof of Theorem 3 is intact with ?  rd(log d)1+? /n and a proper adjustment of ?2 in (13). Compared with [7] and [9], the main advantage ofPTheorem 3 is the proportionality of its error n bound to the noise level. In [7], the quadratic term i=1 M?2i in (2) is replaced by its expectation 2 ?0 kM k(F ) and the resulting minimizer is proved to satisfy b (KLT) ? ?k2 /(d1 d2 ) ? C max(? 2 , k?k2? )rd(log d)/n k? (F ) (17) with large probability, where C is a numerical constant. This error bound achieves the squared error rate ? 2 rd(log d)/n as in Theorem 3 when the noise level ? is of no smaller order than k?k? , but not of smaller order. In particular, (17) does not imply exact recovery when ? = 0. In Theorem 3, the error bound converges to zero as the noise level diminishes, implying exact recovery in the noiseless case.?In [9], a constrained spectrum Lasso was proposed that minimizes (2) subject to kM k? ? ?? / d1 d2 . For k?k(F ) ? 1 and ?sp (?) ? ?? , [9] proved b (NW) ? ?k2 ? C max(d1 d2 ? 2 , 1)(?? )2 rd(log d)/n k? (F ) 5 (18) with large probability. Scale change from the above error bound yields b (NW) ? ?k2 /(d1 d2 ) ? C max{? 2 , k?k2 /(d1 d2 )}(?? )2 rd(log d)/n. k? (F ) (F ) ? ? ? Since ? ? 1 and ? k?k(F ) / d1 d2 ? k?k? , the right-hand side of (18) is of no smaller order than that of (17). We shall point out that (17) and (18) only require sample size n  rd log d. In addition, [9] allows more practical weighted sampling models. Compared with [6], the main advantage of Theorem 3 is the independence of its sample size requirement on the aspect ratio d2 /d1 , where d2 ? d1 is assumed without loss of generality by symmetry. The error bound in [6] implies b (KMO) ? ?k2 /(d1 d2 ) ? C0 (s1 /sr )4 ? 2 rd(log d)/n k? (19) (F ) p for sample size n ? C1? rd log d + C2? r2 d d2 /d1 , where {C1? , C2? } are constants depending on the same set of coherence factors as in (14) and s1 > ? ?p ? > sr are the singular values of ?. Therefore, Theorem 3 effectively replaces the root aspect ratio d2 /d1 in the sample size requirement of (19) with a log factor, and removes the coherence factor (s1 /sr )4 on the right-hand side of (19). We note that s1 /sr is a larger coherence factor than k?k(F ) /(r1/2 sr ) in the sample size requirement in Theorem 3. The root aspect ratio can be removed from the sample size requirement for (19) if ? can be divided into square blocks uniformly satisfying the coherence conditions. 4 Simulation study This experiment has the same setting as in Section 9 of [8]. We provide the description of the simulation settings in our notation as follows: The target matrix is ? = U V > , where Ud1 ?r and Vd2 ?r are random matrices with independent standard normal entries. The sampling points ?i have no tie and ? = {?i : i = 1, . . . , n} is a uniformly distributed random subset of {1, . . . , d1 } ? {1, . . . , d2 }, where n is fixed. The P errors ? are iid N (0, ? 2 ) variables. Thus, the observed matrix is n Y = P? (? + ?) with ? P? = H = i=1 P?i being a projection. The signal to noise ratio (SNR) is defined as SNR = r/?. We compare the calibrated spectrum E-net (4) with the spectrum Lasso (2) and its modification b (KLT) of [7]. For all methods, we compute a series of estimators with 100 different penalty lev? els, where the smallest penalty level corresponds to a full-rank solution and the largest penalty level corresponds to a zero solution. For the calibrated spectrum E-net, we always use ?2 = Pn ?1 {n/(d log d)}1/4 /Fb, where Fb = ( i=1 yi2 /?0 )1/2 is an estimator for k?k(F ) . We plot the training errors and test errors as functions of estimated ranks, where the training and test errors are defined as b ? ?)k2 b ? Y )k2 kP?? (? kP? (? (F ) (F ) . , Test error = Training error = ? 2 kP? Y k2(F ) kP? ?k(F ) In Figure 1, we report the estimation performance of three methods. The rank of ? is 10 but {?, ?, ?} are regenerated in each replication. Different noise levels and proportions of the observed entries are considered. All the results are averaged over 50 replications. In this experiment, the calibrated spectrum E-net and the spectrum Lasso estimator have very close testing and training errors, and both of them significantly outperform the modified Lasso. Figure 1 also illustrates that in most cases, the calibrated spectrum E-net and spectrum Lasso achieve the optimal test error when the estimated rank is around the true rank. b (NW) would have the same performance as We note that the constrained spectrum Lasso estimator ? b ? ?? is set with a sufficiently high ?? . However, the spectrum Lasso when the constraint ?sp (?) analytic properties of the spectrum Lasso is unclear without constraint or modification. 5 Proof of Theorem 2 The proof of Theorem 2 requires the following proposition that controls the approximation error of the Taylor expansion of the nuclear norm with subdifferentiation. The result, closely related to those 6 ?0=0.2, SNR=1 ?0=0.2, SNR=10 1 Error Error 1 0.5 0 0 10 20 30 0.5 0 40 0 10 Rank ?0=0.5, SNR=1 0.5 0 20 40 0.5 0 60 0 10 Rank ?0=0.8, SNR=1 30 40 1 Error Error 20 Rank ?0=0.8, SNR=10 1 0.5 0 30 1 Error Error 1 0 20 Rank ?0=0.5, SNR=10 0 20 40 60 0.5 0 80 Rank 0 5 10 15 20 25 Rank Figure 1: Plots of training and testing errors against the estimated rank: testing error with solid lines; training error with dashed lines; spectrum Lasso in blue, calibrated spectrum E-net in red; modified spectrum Lasso in black; d1 = d2 = 100, rank(?) = 10. in [13], is used to control the variation of the tangent space of the spectrum E-net estimator. We omit its proof. Proposition 1 Let ? = U DV > be the SVD and M be another matrix. Then, 0 ? kM k(N ) ? k?k(N ) ? kPT? M k(N ) ? hU V > , M ? ?i ? k(PT M ? ?)V D?1/2 k2(F ) + kD?1/2 U > (PT M ? ?)k2(F ) . Proof of Theorem 2. Define ?? = (PT HPT + ?2 PT )?1 (PT ? + PT H? ? ?1 U V > ), ? = (?0 + ?2 )?1 (?0 ? ? ?1 U V > ), e ? ?? , ?? = ?? ? ?, ?? = ? e ? ?. ?=? b = ?? e and ?? ? ? = ?(?1 /?0 )U V > , Since ? b ? ?k(F ) k? ? ?k?? k(F ) + k?? ? ?k(F ) ? = ?k?? k(F ) + r?1 /?0 ? ? ?k?k(F ) + ?k?? k(F ) + r?1 /?0 . (20) (21) We consider two cases by comparing ?2 and ?0 . Case 1: ?2 ? ?0 . By algebra ??? = ?0?1 (PT R + PT )?1 PT (? + ?), so that ? ?k?? k(F ) ? ?0?1 k(PT R + PT )?1 k(op) kPT ? + PT ?k(F ) ? r?1 /(2?0 ). (22) The last inequalityP above follows from the first inequalities in (7), (8) and (9). It remains to bound n k?k(F ) . Let Y = i=1 yi E?i . We write the spectrum E-net estimator (3) as n o e = arg min hHM, M i/2 ? hY, M i + ?1 kM k(N ) + (?2 /2)kM k2 ? (F ) . M 7 b in the sub-differential of kM k(N ) at M = ?, e It follows that for a certain member G e = H? e ? Y + ?2 ? e + ?1 G b = (H + ?2 )? + (H + ?2 )?? ? Y + ?1 G. b 0 = ?L?1 ,?2 (?) e (N ) ? ?h?, Gi, b we have Let Rem1 = k?? k(N ) ? hU V > , ?? i. Since k?? k(N ) ? k?k h(H + ?2 )?, ?i e (N ) ? hH? + ? ? (H + ?2 )?? , ?i + ?1 k?? k(N ) ? ?1 k?k ? ? e (N ) = hH(? ? ? ) + ? ? ?2 ? , ?i + ?1 Rem1 + ?1 hU V > , ?? i ? ?1 k?k ? ? > ? ? ?1 Rem1 + h? + H(? ? ? ) ? ?2 ? ? ?1 U V , ?i ? ?1 kPT ?k(N ) = ?1 Rem1 + h? + H(? ? ?? ), PT? ?i ? ?1 kPT? ?k(N ) . (23) e (N ) ? kP ? ?k e (N ) + hU V > , ?i e and P ? ? e = P ? ?. The The second inequality in (23) is due to k?k T T T ? last equality in (23) follows from the definition of ? ? T , since it gives PT ? + PT H(? ? ?? ) ? ?2 ?? ? ?1 U V > = ?(PT HPT + ?2 PT )?? + PT ? + PT H? ? ?1 U V > = 0. By the definitions of Q, ?? and ?, ? + H(? ? ?? ) = Q? + H(? ? ?) ? H(PT HPT + ?2 PT )?1 PT ?. Since PT? HPT = PT? (H ? ?0 )PT = PT? R(?0 + ?2 ) and (H ? ?0 )(? ? ?) = ?, we find h? + H(? ? ?? ), PT? ?i = hQ? + (H ? ?0 ){? ? ? ? (PT HPT + ?2 PT )?1 PT ?}, PT? ?i = hQ? + ? ? R(PT R + PT )?1 PT ?, PT? ?i. Thus, by the second inequalities of (8) and (9), h? + H(? ? ?? ), PT? ?i ? ?1 kPT? ?k(N ) . (24) Since ?? = ?? ? ? ? T and the singular values of ? is no smaller than (?0 sr ? ?1 )/(?0 + ?2 ) ? (sr ? ?1 /?2 )/? ? 4?1 /(?2 ?) by the second inequality in (7), Proposition 1 and (22) imply Rem1 ? 2k?? ? ?k2(F ) /{(?0 sr ? ?1 )/(?0 + ?2 )} ? r(?1 /?0 )2 /(8??1 /?2 ). (25) It follows from (23), (24) and (25) that ? 2 k?k2(F ) ? ? 2 h(H + ?2 )?, ?i/?2 ? ? 2 (?1 /?2 )Rem1 ? r?21 /(4?02 ). (26) Therefore, the error bound (10) follows from (21), (22) and (26). Case 2: ?2 ? ?0 . By applying the derivation of (23) to ? instead of ?? , we find h(H + ?2 )?? , ?? i + ?1 kPT? ?? k(N )  ? ?1 k?k(N ) ? hU V > , ?i + h? + H(? ? ?) ? ?2 ? ? ?1 U V > , ?? i. By the definitions of ?, R, and ?, ? = (H ? ?0 )(? ? ?) = H(? ? ?) ? ?2 ? ? ?1 U V > . This and k?k(N ) = hU V > , ?i gives h(H + ?2 )?? , ?? i + ?1 kPT? ?? k(N ) ? h? + ?, ?? i. (27) Since kPT? (? + ?)k(S) = kPT? ?k(S) ? ?1 by the third inequality in (9), we have hPT? (? + ?), ?? i ? ?1 kPT? ?? k(N ) . (28) It follows from (27), (28) and the first inequalities of (8) and (9) that n o ? ?2 k?? k2(F ) ? hPT (? + ?), ?? i ? kPT ?k(F ) + kPT ?k(F ) k?? k(F ) ? r?1 k?? k(F ) /2. Thus, due to ?2 ? ?0 , ? ? ?k?? k(F ) ? (?/?2 ) r?1 /2 ? r?1 /?0 . Therefore, the error bound (10) follows from (20) and (29). (29)  Acknowledgments This research is partially supported by the NSF Grants DMS 0906420, DMS-11-06753 and DMS12-09014, and NSA Grant H98230-11-1-0205. 8 References [1] ACM SIGKDD and Netflix. Proceedings of KDD Cup and workshop. 2007. [2] E. Candes and B. Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math., 9:717?772, 2009. [3] E. J. Cand`es and T. Tao. The power of convex relaxation: Near-optimal matrix completion. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 56(5):2053?2080, 2009. [4] D. Gross. Recovering low-rank matrices from few coefficients in any basis. abs/0910.1879, 2009. CoRR, [5] R. H. Keshavan, A. Montanari, and S. Oh. Matrix completion from a few entries. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 56(6):2980?2998, 2010. [6] R. H. Keshavan, A. Montanari, and S. Oh. Matrix completion from noisy entries. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:2057?2078, 2010. [7] V. Koltchinskii, K. Lounici, and A. B. Tsybakov. Nuclear-norm penalization and optimal rates for noisy low-rank matrix completion. The Annals of Statistics, 39:2302?2329, 2011. [8] R. Mazumder, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:2287?2322, 2010. [9] S. Negahban and M. J. Wainwright. Restricted strong convexity and weighted matrix completion: Optimal bounds with noise. 2010. [10] R. I. Oliveira. Concentration of the adjacency matrix and of the laplacian in random graphs with independent edges. Technical Report arXiv:0911.0600, arXiv, 2010. [11] B. Recht. A simpler approach to matrix completion. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:3413?3430, 2011. [12] J. A. Tropp. User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices. Found. Comput. Math. doi:10.1007/s10208-011-9099-z., 2011. [13] P.-A. Wedin. Perturbation bounds in connection with singular value decomposition. BIT, 12:99?111, 1972. [14] C.-H. Zhang and T. Zhang. A general framework of dual certificate analysis for structured sparse recovery problems. Technical report, arXiv: 1201.3302v1, 2012. [15] H. Zou and T. Hastie. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 67:301?320, 2005. 9
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ImageNet Classification with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks Alex Krizhevsky University of Toronto [email protected] Ilya Sutskever University of Toronto [email protected] Geoffrey E. Hinton University of Toronto [email protected] Abstract We trained a large, deep convolutional neural network to classify the 1.2 million high-resolution images in the ImageNet LSVRC-2010 contest into the 1000 different classes. On the test data, we achieved top-1 and top-5 error rates of 37.5% and 17.0% which is considerably better than the previous state-of-the-art. The neural network, which has 60 million parameters and 650,000 neurons, consists of five convolutional layers, some of which are followed by max-pooling layers, and three fully-connected layers with a final 1000-way softmax. To make training faster, we used non-saturating neurons and a very efficient GPU implementation of the convolution operation. To reduce overfitting in the fully-connected layers we employed a recently-developed regularization method called ?dropout? that proved to be very effective. We also entered a variant of this model in the ILSVRC-2012 competition and achieved a winning top-5 test error rate of 15.3%, compared to 26.2% achieved by the second-best entry. 1 Introduction Current approaches to object recognition make essential use of machine learning methods. To improve their performance, we can collect larger datasets, learn more powerful models, and use better techniques for preventing overfitting. Until recently, datasets of labeled images were relatively small ? on the order of tens of thousands of images (e.g., NORB [16], Caltech-101/256 [8, 9], and CIFAR-10/100 [12]). Simple recognition tasks can be solved quite well with datasets of this size, especially if they are augmented with label-preserving transformations. For example, the currentbest error rate on the MNIST digit-recognition task (<0.3%) approaches human performance [4]. But objects in realistic settings exhibit considerable variability, so to learn to recognize them it is necessary to use much larger training sets. And indeed, the shortcomings of small image datasets have been widely recognized (e.g., Pinto et al. [21]), but it has only recently become possible to collect labeled datasets with millions of images. The new larger datasets include LabelMe [23], which consists of hundreds of thousands of fully-segmented images, and ImageNet [6], which consists of over 15 million labeled high-resolution images in over 22,000 categories. To learn about thousands of objects from millions of images, we need a model with a large learning capacity. However, the immense complexity of the object recognition task means that this problem cannot be specified even by a dataset as large as ImageNet, so our model should also have lots of prior knowledge to compensate for all the data we don?t have. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) constitute one such class of models [16, 11, 13, 18, 15, 22, 26]. Their capacity can be controlled by varying their depth and breadth, and they also make strong and mostly correct assumptions about the nature of images (namely, stationarity of statistics and locality of pixel dependencies). Thus, compared to standard feedforward neural networks with similarly-sized layers, CNNs have much fewer connections and parameters and so they are easier to train, while their theoretically-best performance is likely to be only slightly worse. 1 Despite the attractive qualities of CNNs, and despite the relative efficiency of their local architecture, they have still been prohibitively expensive to apply in large scale to high-resolution images. Luckily, current GPUs, paired with a highly-optimized implementation of 2D convolution, are powerful enough to facilitate the training of interestingly-large CNNs, and recent datasets such as ImageNet contain enough labeled examples to train such models without severe overfitting. The specific contributions of this paper are as follows: we trained one of the largest convolutional neural networks to date on the subsets of ImageNet used in the ILSVRC-2010 and ILSVRC-2012 competitions [2] and achieved by far the best results ever reported on these datasets. We wrote a highly-optimized GPU implementation of 2D convolution and all the other operations inherent in training convolutional neural networks, which we make available publicly1 . Our network contains a number of new and unusual features which improve its performance and reduce its training time, which are detailed in Section 3. The size of our network made overfitting a significant problem, even with 1.2 million labeled training examples, so we used several effective techniques for preventing overfitting, which are described in Section 4. Our final network contains five convolutional and three fully-connected layers, and this depth seems to be important: we found that removing any convolutional layer (each of which contains no more than 1% of the model?s parameters) resulted in inferior performance. In the end, the network?s size is limited mainly by the amount of memory available on current GPUs and by the amount of training time that we are willing to tolerate. Our network takes between five and six days to train on two GTX 580 3GB GPUs. All of our experiments suggest that our results can be improved simply by waiting for faster GPUs and bigger datasets to become available. 2 The Dataset ImageNet is a dataset of over 15 million labeled high-resolution images belonging to roughly 22,000 categories. The images were collected from the web and labeled by human labelers using Amazon?s Mechanical Turk crowd-sourcing tool. Starting in 2010, as part of the Pascal Visual Object Challenge, an annual competition called the ImageNet Large-Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC) has been held. ILSVRC uses a subset of ImageNet with roughly 1000 images in each of 1000 categories. In all, there are roughly 1.2 million training images, 50,000 validation images, and 150,000 testing images. ILSVRC-2010 is the only version of ILSVRC for which the test set labels are available, so this is the version on which we performed most of our experiments. Since we also entered our model in the ILSVRC-2012 competition, in Section 6 we report our results on this version of the dataset as well, for which test set labels are unavailable. On ImageNet, it is customary to report two error rates: top-1 and top-5, where the top-5 error rate is the fraction of test images for which the correct label is not among the five labels considered most probable by the model. ImageNet consists of variable-resolution images, while our system requires a constant input dimensionality. Therefore, we down-sampled the images to a fixed resolution of 256 ? 256. Given a rectangular image, we first rescaled the image such that the shorter side was of length 256, and then cropped out the central 256?256 patch from the resulting image. We did not pre-process the images in any other way, except for subtracting the mean activity over the training set from each pixel. So we trained our network on the (centered) raw RGB values of the pixels. 3 The Architecture The architecture of our network is summarized in Figure 2. It contains eight learned layers ? five convolutional and three fully-connected. Below, we describe some of the novel or unusual features of our network?s architecture. Sections 3.1-3.4 are sorted according to our estimation of their importance, with the most important first. 1 http://code.google.com/p/cuda-convnet/ 2 3.1 ReLU Nonlinearity The standard way to model a neuron?s output f as a function of its input x is with f (x) = tanh(x) or f (x) = (1 + e?x )?1 . In terms of training time with gradient descent, these saturating nonlinearities are much slower than the non-saturating nonlinearity f (x) = max(0, x). Following Nair and Hinton [20], we refer to neurons with this nonlinearity as Rectified Linear Units (ReLUs). Deep convolutional neural networks with ReLUs train several times faster than their equivalents with tanh units. This is demonstrated in Figure 1, which shows the number of iterations required to reach 25% training error on the CIFAR-10 dataset for a particular four-layer convolutional network. This plot shows that we would not have been able to experiment with such large neural networks for this work if we had used traditional saturating neuron Figure 1: A four-layer convolutional neural models. network with ReLUs (solid line) reaches a 25% We are not the first to consider alternatives to traditional neuron models in CNNs. For example, Jarrett et al. [11] claim that the nonlinearity f (x) = |tanh(x)| works particularly well with their type of contrast normalization followed by local average pooling on the Caltech-101 dataset. However, on this dataset the primary concern is preventing overfitting, so the effect they are observing is different from the accelerated ability to fit the training set which we report when using ReLUs. Faster learning has a great influence on the performance of large models trained on large datasets. 3.2 training error rate on CIFAR-10 six times faster than an equivalent network with tanh neurons (dashed line). The learning rates for each network were chosen independently to make training as fast as possible. No regularization of any kind was employed. The magnitude of the effect demonstrated here varies with network architecture, but networks with ReLUs consistently learn several times faster than equivalents with saturating neurons. Training on Multiple GPUs A single GTX 580 GPU has only 3GB of memory, which limits the maximum size of the networks that can be trained on it. It turns out that 1.2 million training examples are enough to train networks which are too big to fit on one GPU. Therefore we spread the net across two GPUs. Current GPUs are particularly well-suited to cross-GPU parallelization, as they are able to read from and write to one another?s memory directly, without going through host machine memory. The parallelization scheme that we employ essentially puts half of the kernels (or neurons) on each GPU, with one additional trick: the GPUs communicate only in certain layers. This means that, for example, the kernels of layer 3 take input from all kernel maps in layer 2. However, kernels in layer 4 take input only from those kernel maps in layer 3 which reside on the same GPU. Choosing the pattern of connectivity is a problem for cross-validation, but this allows us to precisely tune the amount of communication until it is an acceptable fraction of the amount of computation. The resultant architecture is somewhat similar to that of the ?columnar? CNN employed by Cire?san et al. [5], except that our columns are not independent (see Figure 2). This scheme reduces our top-1 and top-5 error rates by 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively, as compared with a net with half as many kernels in each convolutional layer trained on one GPU. The two-GPU net takes slightly less time to train than the one-GPU net2 . 2 The one-GPU net actually has the same number of kernels as the two-GPU net in the final convolutional layer. This is because most of the net?s parameters are in the first fully-connected layer, which takes the last convolutional layer as input. So to make the two nets have approximately the same number of parameters, we did not halve the size of the final convolutional layer (nor the fully-conneced layers which follow). Therefore this comparison is biased in favor of the one-GPU net, since it is bigger than ?half the size? of the two-GPU net. 3 3.3 Local Response Normalization ReLUs have the desirable property that they do not require input normalization to prevent them from saturating. If at least some training examples produce a positive input to a ReLU, learning will happen in that neuron. However, we still find that the following local normalization scheme aids generalization. Denoting by aix,y the activity of a neuron computed by applying kernel i at position (x, y) and then applying the ReLU nonlinearity, the response-normalized activity bix,y is given by the expression ? ?? min(N ?1,i+n/2) X bix,y = aix,y /?k + ? (ajx,y )2 ? j=max(0,i?n/2) where the sum runs over n ?adjacent? kernel maps at the same spatial position, and N is the total number of kernels in the layer. The ordering of the kernel maps is of course arbitrary and determined before training begins. This sort of response normalization implements a form of lateral inhibition inspired by the type found in real neurons, creating competition for big activities amongst neuron outputs computed using different kernels. The constants k, n, ?, and ? are hyper-parameters whose values are determined using a validation set; we used k = 2, n = 5, ? = 10?4 , and ? = 0.75. We applied this normalization after applying the ReLU nonlinearity in certain layers (see Section 3.5). This scheme bears some resemblance to the local contrast normalization scheme of Jarrett et al. [11], but ours would be more correctly termed ?brightness normalization?, since we do not subtract the mean activity. Response normalization reduces our top-1 and top-5 error rates by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. We also verified the effectiveness of this scheme on the CIFAR-10 dataset: a four-layer CNN achieved a 13% test error rate without normalization and 11% with normalization3 . 3.4 Overlapping Pooling Pooling layers in CNNs summarize the outputs of neighboring groups of neurons in the same kernel map. Traditionally, the neighborhoods summarized by adjacent pooling units do not overlap (e.g., [17, 11, 4]). To be more precise, a pooling layer can be thought of as consisting of a grid of pooling units spaced s pixels apart, each summarizing a neighborhood of size z ? z centered at the location of the pooling unit. If we set s = z, we obtain traditional local pooling as commonly employed in CNNs. If we set s < z, we obtain overlapping pooling. This is what we use throughout our network, with s = 2 and z = 3. This scheme reduces the top-1 and top-5 error rates by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, as compared with the non-overlapping scheme s = 2, z = 2, which produces output of equivalent dimensions. We generally observe during training that models with overlapping pooling find it slightly more difficult to overfit. 3.5 Overall Architecture Now we are ready to describe the overall architecture of our CNN. As depicted in Figure 2, the net contains eight layers with weights; the first five are convolutional and the remaining three are fullyconnected. The output of the last fully-connected layer is fed to a 1000-way softmax which produces a distribution over the 1000 class labels. Our network maximizes the multinomial logistic regression objective, which is equivalent to maximizing the average across training cases of the log-probability of the correct label under the prediction distribution. The kernels of the second, fourth, and fifth convolutional layers are connected only to those kernel maps in the previous layer which reside on the same GPU (see Figure 2). The kernels of the third convolutional layer are connected to all kernel maps in the second layer. The neurons in the fullyconnected layers are connected to all neurons in the previous layer. Response-normalization layers follow the first and second convolutional layers. Max-pooling layers, of the kind described in Section 3.4, follow both response-normalization layers as well as the fifth convolutional layer. The ReLU non-linearity is applied to the output of every convolutional and fully-connected layer. The first convolutional layer filters the 224 ? 224 ? 3 input image with 96 kernels of size 11 ? 11 ? 3 with a stride of 4 pixels (this is the distance between the receptive field centers of neighboring 3 We cannot describe this network in detail due to space constraints, but it is specified precisely by the code and parameter files provided here: http://code.google.com/p/cuda-convnet/. 4 Figure 2: An illustration of the architecture of our CNN, explicitly showing the delineation of responsibilities between the two GPUs. One GPU runs the layer-parts at the top of the figure while the other runs the layer-parts at the bottom. The GPUs communicate only at certain layers. The network?s input is 150,528-dimensional, and the number of neurons in the network?s remaining layers is given by 253,440?186,624?64,896?64,896?43,264? 4096?4096?1000. neurons in a kernel map). The second convolutional layer takes as input the (response-normalized and pooled) output of the first convolutional layer and filters it with 256 kernels of size 5 ? 5 ? 48. The third, fourth, and fifth convolutional layers are connected to one another without any intervening pooling or normalization layers. The third convolutional layer has 384 kernels of size 3 ? 3 ? 256 connected to the (normalized, pooled) outputs of the second convolutional layer. The fourth convolutional layer has 384 kernels of size 3 ? 3 ? 192 , and the fifth convolutional layer has 256 kernels of size 3 ? 3 ? 192. The fully-connected layers have 4096 neurons each. 4 Reducing Overfitting Our neural network architecture has 60 million parameters. Although the 1000 classes of ILSVRC make each training example impose 10 bits of constraint on the mapping from image to label, this turns out to be insufficient to learn so many parameters without considerable overfitting. Below, we describe the two primary ways in which we combat overfitting. 4.1 Data Augmentation The easiest and most common method to reduce overfitting on image data is to artificially enlarge the dataset using label-preserving transformations (e.g., [25, 4, 5]). We employ two distinct forms of data augmentation, both of which allow transformed images to be produced from the original images with very little computation, so the transformed images do not need to be stored on disk. In our implementation, the transformed images are generated in Python code on the CPU while the GPU is training on the previous batch of images. So these data augmentation schemes are, in effect, computationally free. The first form of data augmentation consists of generating image translations and horizontal reflections. We do this by extracting random 224 ? 224 patches (and their horizontal reflections) from the 256?256 images and training our network on these extracted patches4 . This increases the size of our training set by a factor of 2048, though the resulting training examples are, of course, highly interdependent. Without this scheme, our network suffers from substantial overfitting, which would have forced us to use much smaller networks. At test time, the network makes a prediction by extracting five 224 ? 224 patches (the four corner patches and the center patch) as well as their horizontal reflections (hence ten patches in all), and averaging the predictions made by the network?s softmax layer on the ten patches. The second form of data augmentation consists of altering the intensities of the RGB channels in training images. Specifically, we perform PCA on the set of RGB pixel values throughout the ImageNet training set. To each training image, we add multiples of the found principal components, 4 This is the reason why the input images in Figure 2 are 224 ? 224 ? 3-dimensional. 5 with magnitudes proportional to the corresponding eigenvalues times a random variable drawn from a Gaussian with mean zero and standard deviation 0.1. Therefore to each RGB image pixel Ixy = R G B T [Ixy , Ixy , Ixy ] we add the following quantity: [p1 , p2 , p3 ][?1 ?1 , ?2 ?2 , ?3 ?3 ]T where pi and ?i are ith eigenvector and eigenvalue of the 3 ? 3 covariance matrix of RGB pixel values, respectively, and ?i is the aforementioned random variable. Each ?i is drawn only once for all the pixels of a particular training image until that image is used for training again, at which point it is re-drawn. This scheme approximately captures an important property of natural images, namely, that object identity is invariant to changes in the intensity and color of the illumination. This scheme reduces the top-1 error rate by over 1%. 4.2 Dropout Combining the predictions of many different models is a very successful way to reduce test errors [1, 3], but it appears to be too expensive for big neural networks that already take several days to train. There is, however, a very efficient version of model combination that only costs about a factor of two during training. The recently-introduced technique, called ?dropout? [10], consists of setting to zero the output of each hidden neuron with probability 0.5. The neurons which are ?dropped out? in this way do not contribute to the forward pass and do not participate in backpropagation. So every time an input is presented, the neural network samples a different architecture, but all these architectures share weights. This technique reduces complex co-adaptations of neurons, since a neuron cannot rely on the presence of particular other neurons. It is, therefore, forced to learn more robust features that are useful in conjunction with many different random subsets of the other neurons. At test time, we use all the neurons but multiply their outputs by 0.5, which is a reasonable approximation to taking the geometric mean of the predictive distributions produced by the exponentially-many dropout networks. We use dropout in the first two fully-connected layers of Figure 2. Without dropout, our network exhibits substantial overfitting. Dropout roughly doubles the number of iterations required to converge. 5 Details of learning We trained our models using stochastic gradient descent with a batch size of 128 examples, momentum of 0.9, and weight decay of 0.0005. We found that this small amount of weight decay was important for the model to learn. In other words, weight decay here is not merely a regularizer: it reduces the model?s training error. The update rule for weight w was   ?L vi+1 := 0.9 ? vi ? 0.0005 ?  ? wi ?  ? ?w wi Di wi+1 := wi + vi+1 Figure 3: 96 convolutional kernels of size 11?11?3 learned by the first convolutional layer on the 224?224?3 input images. The top 48 kernels were learned on GPU 1 while the bottom 48 kernels were learned on GPU 2. See Section 6.1 for details. where i is the iteration index, v is the momentum variable,  is the learning rate, and D E ?L ?w wi Di is the average over the ith batch Di of the derivative of the objective with respect to w, evaluated at wi . We initialized the weights in each layer from a zero-mean Gaussian distribution with standard deviation 0.01. We initialized the neuron biases in the second, fourth, and fifth convolutional layers, as well as in the fully-connected hidden layers, with the constant 1. This initialization accelerates the early stages of learning by providing the ReLUs with positive inputs. We initialized the neuron biases in the remaining layers with the constant 0. We used an equal learning rate for all layers, which we adjusted manually throughout training. The heuristic which we followed was to divide the learning rate by 10 when the validation error rate stopped improving with the current learning rate. The learning rate was initialized at 0.01 and 6 reduced three times prior to termination. We trained the network for roughly 90 cycles through the training set of 1.2 million images, which took five to six days on two NVIDIA GTX 580 3GB GPUs. 6 Results Our results on ILSVRC-2010 are summarized in Table 1. Our network achieves top-1 and top-5 test set error rates of 37.5% and 17.0%5 . The best performance achieved during the ILSVRC2010 competition was 47.1% and 28.2% with an approach that averages the predictions produced from six sparse-coding models trained on different features [2], and since then the best published results are 45.7% and 25.7% with an approach that averages the predictions of two classifiers trained on Fisher Vectors (FVs) computed from two types of densely-sampled features [24]. Model Top-1 Top-5 We also entered our model in the ILSVRC-2012 comSparse coding [2] 47.1% 28.2% petition and report our results in Table 2. Since the SIFT + FVs [24] 45.7% 25.7% ILSVRC-2012 test set labels are not publicly available, we cannot report test error rates for all the models that CNN 37.5% 17.0% we tried. In the remainder of this paragraph, we use validation and test error rates interchangeably because Table 1: Comparison of results on ILSVRCin our experience they do not differ by more than 0.1% 2010 test set. In italics are best results (see Table 2). The CNN described in this paper achieves achieved by others. a top-5 error rate of 18.2%. Averaging the predictions of five similar CNNs gives an error rate of 16.4%. Training one CNN, with an extra sixth convolutional layer over the last pooling layer, to classify the entire ImageNet Fall 2011 release (15M images, 22K categories), and then ?fine-tuning? it on ILSVRC-2012 gives an error rate of 16.6%. Averaging the predictions of two CNNs that were pre-trained on the entire Fall 2011 release with the aforementioned five CNNs gives an error rate of 15.3%. The second-best contest entry achieved an error rate of 26.2% with an approach that averages the predictions of several classifiers trained on FVs computed from different types of densely-sampled features [7]. Finally, we also report our error rates on the Fall 2009 version of Model Top-1 (val) Top-5 (val) Top-5 (test) ImageNet with 10,184 categories SIFT + FVs [7] ? ? 26.2% and 8.9 million images. On this 1 CNN 40.7% 18.2% ? dataset we follow the convention 5 CNNs 38.1% 16.4% 16.4% in the literature of using half of 1 CNN* 39.0% 16.6% ? the images for training and half 7 CNNs* 36.7% 15.4% 15.3% for testing. Since there is no established test set, our split necessarily differs from the splits used Table 2: Comparison of error rates on ILSVRC-2012 validation and by previous authors, but this does test sets. In italics are best results achieved by others. Models with an not affect the results appreciably. asterisk* were ?pre-trained? to classify the entire ImageNet 2011 Fall Our top-1 and top-5 error rates release. See Section 6 for details. on this dataset are 67.4% and 40.9%, attained by the net described above but with an additional, sixth convolutional layer over the last pooling layer. The best published results on this dataset are 78.1% and 60.9% [19]. 6.1 Qualitative Evaluations Figure 3 shows the convolutional kernels learned by the network?s two data-connected layers. The network has learned a variety of frequency- and orientation-selective kernels, as well as various colored blobs. Notice the specialization exhibited by the two GPUs, a result of the restricted connectivity described in Section 3.5. The kernels on GPU 1 are largely color-agnostic, while the kernels on on GPU 2 are largely color-specific. This kind of specialization occurs during every run and is independent of any particular random weight initialization (modulo a renumbering of the GPUs). 5 The error rates without averaging predictions over ten patches as described in Section 4.1 are 39.0% and 18.3%. 7 Figure 4: (Left) Eight ILSVRC-2010 test images and the five labels considered most probable by our model. The correct label is written under each image, and the probability assigned to the correct label is also shown with a red bar (if it happens to be in the top 5). (Right) Five ILSVRC-2010 test images in the first column. The remaining columns show the six training images that produce feature vectors in the last hidden layer with the smallest Euclidean distance from the feature vector for the test image. In the left panel of Figure 4 we qualitatively assess what the network has learned by computing its top-5 predictions on eight test images. Notice that even off-center objects, such as the mite in the top-left, can be recognized by the net. Most of the top-5 labels appear reasonable. For example, only other types of cat are considered plausible labels for the leopard. In some cases (grille, cherry) there is genuine ambiguity about the intended focus of the photograph. Another way to probe the network?s visual knowledge is to consider the feature activations induced by an image at the last, 4096-dimensional hidden layer. If two images produce feature activation vectors with a small Euclidean separation, we can say that the higher levels of the neural network consider them to be similar. Figure 4 shows five images from the test set and the six images from the training set that are most similar to each of them according to this measure. Notice that at the pixel level, the retrieved training images are generally not close in L2 to the query images in the first column. For example, the retrieved dogs and elephants appear in a variety of poses. We present the results for many more test images in the supplementary material. Computing similarity by using Euclidean distance between two 4096-dimensional, real-valued vectors is inefficient, but it could be made efficient by training an auto-encoder to compress these vectors to short binary codes. This should produce a much better image retrieval method than applying autoencoders to the raw pixels [14], which does not make use of image labels and hence has a tendency to retrieve images with similar patterns of edges, whether or not they are semantically similar. 7 Discussion Our results show that a large, deep convolutional neural network is capable of achieving recordbreaking results on a highly challenging dataset using purely supervised learning. It is notable that our network?s performance degrades if a single convolutional layer is removed. For example, removing any of the middle layers results in a loss of about 2% for the top-1 performance of the network. So the depth really is important for achieving our results. To simplify our experiments, we did not use any unsupervised pre-training even though we expect that it will help, especially if we obtain enough computational power to significantly increase the size of the network without obtaining a corresponding increase in the amount of labeled data. Thus far, our results have improved as we have made our network larger and trained it longer but we still have many orders of magnitude to go in order to match the infero-temporal pathway of the human visual system. Ultimately we would like to use very large and deep convolutional nets on video sequences where the temporal structure provides very helpful information that is missing or far less obvious in static images. 8 References [1] R.M. Bell and Y. Koren. Lessons from the netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, 9(2):75?79, 2007. [2] A. Berg, J. Deng, and L. Fei-Fei. Large scale visual recognition challenge 2010. www.imagenet.org/challenges. 2010. [3] L. Breiman. Random forests. Machine learning, 45(1):5?32, 2001. [4] D. Cire?san, U. Meier, and J. Schmidhuber. Multi-column deep neural networks for image classification. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1202.2745, 2012. [5] D.C. Cire?san, U. Meier, J. Masci, L.M. Gambardella, and J. Schmidhuber. High-performance neural networks for visual object classification. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1102.0183, 2011. [6] J. Deng, W. Dong, R. Socher, L.-J. Li, K. Li, and L. Fei-Fei. ImageNet: A Large-Scale Hierarchical Image Database. In CVPR09, 2009. [7] J. Deng, A. Berg, S. Satheesh, H. Su, A. Khosla, and L. Fei-Fei. ILSVRC-2012, 2012. URL http://www.image-net.org/challenges/LSVRC/2012/. [8] L. Fei-Fei, R. Fergus, and P. Perona. Learning generative visual models from few training examples: An incremental bayesian approach tested on 101 object categories. Computer Vision and Image Understanding, 106(1):59?70, 2007. [9] G. Griffin, A. Holub, and P. Perona. Caltech-256 object category dataset. Technical Report 7694, California Institute of Technology, 2007. URL http://authors.library.caltech.edu/7694. [10] G.E. Hinton, N. Srivastava, A. Krizhevsky, I. Sutskever, and R.R. Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. arXiv preprint arXiv:1207.0580, 2012. [11] K. Jarrett, K. Kavukcuoglu, M. A. Ranzato, and Y. LeCun. What is the best multi-stage architecture for object recognition? In International Conference on Computer Vision, pages 2146?2153. IEEE, 2009. [12] A. Krizhevsky. Learning multiple layers of features from tiny images. Master?s thesis, Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, 2009. [13] A. Krizhevsky. Convolutional deep belief networks on cifar-10. Unpublished manuscript, 2010. [14] A. Krizhevsky and G.E. Hinton. Using very deep autoencoders for content-based image retrieval. In ESANN, 2011. [15] Y. Le Cun, B. Boser, J.S. Denker, D. Henderson, R.E. Howard, W. Hubbard, L.D. Jackel, et al. Handwritten digit recognition with a back-propagation network. In Advances in neural information processing systems, 1990. [16] Y. LeCun, F.J. Huang, and L. Bottou. Learning methods for generic object recognition with invariance to pose and lighting. In Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2004. CVPR 2004. Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE Computer Society Conference on, volume 2, pages II?97. IEEE, 2004. [17] Y. LeCun, K. Kavukcuoglu, and C. Farabet. Convolutional networks and applications in vision. In Circuits and Systems (ISCAS), Proceedings of 2010 IEEE International Symposium on, pages 253?256. IEEE, 2010. [18] H. Lee, R. Grosse, R. Ranganath, and A.Y. Ng. Convolutional deep belief networks for scalable unsupervised learning of hierarchical representations. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 609?616. ACM, 2009. [19] T. Mensink, J. Verbeek, F. Perronnin, and G. Csurka. Metric Learning for Large Scale Image Classification: Generalizing to New Classes at Near-Zero Cost. In ECCV - European Conference on Computer Vision, Florence, Italy, October 2012. [20] V. Nair and G. E. Hinton. Rectified linear units improve restricted boltzmann machines. In Proc. 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2010. [21] N. Pinto, D.D. Cox, and J.J. DiCarlo. Why is real-world visual object recognition hard? PLoS computational biology, 4(1):e27, 2008. [22] N. Pinto, D. Doukhan, J.J. DiCarlo, and D.D. Cox. A high-throughput screening approach to discovering good forms of biologically inspired visual representation. PLoS computational biology, 5(11):e1000579, 2009. [23] B.C. Russell, A. Torralba, K.P. Murphy, and W.T. Freeman. Labelme: a database and web-based tool for image annotation. International journal of computer vision, 77(1):157?173, 2008. [24] J. S?nchez and F. Perronnin. High-dimensional signature compression for large-scale image classification. 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Learning from Distributions via Support Measure Machines Krikamol Muandet MPI for Intelligent Systems, T?ubingen [email protected] Kenji Fukumizu The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo [email protected] Francesco Dinuzzo MPI for Intelligent Systems, T?ubingen [email protected] Bernhard Sch?olkopf MPI for Intelligent Systems, T?ubingen [email protected] Abstract This paper presents a kernel-based discriminative learning framework on probability measures. Rather than relying on large collections of vectorial training examples, our framework learns using a collection of probability distributions that have been constructed to meaningfully represent training data. By representing these probability distributions as mean embeddings in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), we are able to apply many standard kernel-based learning techniques in straightforward fashion. To accomplish this, we construct a generalization of the support vector machine (SVM) called a support measure machine (SMM). Our analyses of SMMs provides several insights into their relationship to traditional SVMs. Based on such insights, we propose a flexible SVM (FlexSVM) that places different kernel functions on each training example. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework. 1 Introduction Discriminative learning algorithms are typically trained from large collections of vectorial training examples. In many classical learning problems, however, it is arguably more appropriate to represent training data not as individual data points, but as probability distributions. There are, in fact, multiple reasons why probability distributions may be preferable. Firstly, uncertain or missing data naturally arises in many applications. For example, gene expression data obtained from the microarray experiments are known to be very noisy due to various sources of variabilities [1]. In order to reduce uncertainty, and to allow for estimates of confidence levels, experiments are often replicated. Unfortunately, the feasibility of replicating the microarray experiments is often inhibited by cost constraints, as well as the amount of available mRNA. To cope with experimental uncertainty given a limited amount of data, it is natural to represent each array as a probability distribution that has been designed to approximate the variability of gene expressions across slides. Probability distributions may be equally appropriate given an abundance of training data. In datarich disciplines such as neuroinformatics, climate informatics, and astronomy, a high throughput experiment can easily generate a huge amount of data, leading to significant computational challenges in both time and space. Instead of scaling up one?s learning algorithms, one can scale down one?s dataset by constructing a smaller collection of distributions which represents groups of similar samples. Besides computational efficiency, aggregate statistics can potentially incorporate higherlevel information that represents the collective behavior of multiple data points. 1 Previous attempts have been made to learn from distributions by creating positive definite (p.d.) kernels on probability measures. In [2], the probability product kernel (PPK) was proposed as a generalized inner product between two input objects, which is in fact closely related to well-known kernels such as the Bhattacharyya kernel [3] and the exponential symmetrized Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence [4]. In [5], an extension of a two-parameter family of Hilbertian metrics of Tops?e was used to define Hilbertian kernels on probability measures. In [6], the semi-group kernels were designed for objects with additive semi-group structure such as positive measures. Recently, [7] introduced nonextensive information theoretic kernels on probability measures based on new JensenShannon-type divergences. Although these kernels have proven successful in many applications, they are designed specifically for certain properties of distributions and application domains. Moreover, there has been no attempt in making a connection to the kernels on corresponding input spaces. The contributions of this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we prove the representer theorem for a regularization framework over the space of probability distributions, which is a generalization of regularization over the input space on which the distributions are defined (Section 2). Second, a family of positive definite kernels on distributions is introduced (Section 3). Based on such kernels, a learning algorithm on probability measures called support measure machine (SMM) is proposed. An SVM on the input space is provably a special case of the SMM. Third, the paper presents the relations between sample-based and distribution-based methods (Section 4). If the distributions depend only on the locations in the input space, the SMM particularly reduces to a more flexible SVM that places different kernels on each data point. 2 Regularization on probability distributions Given a non-empty set X , let P denote the set of all probability measures P on a measurable space (X , A), where A is a ?-algebra of subsets of X . The goal of this work is to learn a function h : P ? Y given a set of example pairs {(Pi , yi )}m i=1 , where Pi ? P and yi ? Y. In other words, we consider a supervised setting in which input training examples are probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on the binary classification problem, i.e., Y = {+1, ?1}. In order to learn from distributions, we employ a compact representation that not only preserves necessary information of individual distributions, but also permits efficient computations. That is, we adopt a Hilbert space embedding to represent the distribution as a mean function in an RKHS [8, 9]. Formally, let H denote an RKHS of functions f : X ? R, endowed with a reproducing kernel k : X ? X ? R. The mean map from P into H is defined as Z ? : P ? H, P 7?? k(x, ?) dP(x) . (1) X We assume that k(x, ?) is bounded for any x ? X . It can be shown that, if k is characteristic, the map (1) is injective, i.e., all the information about the distribution is preserved [10]. For any P, letting ?P = ?(P), we have the reproducing property EP [f ] = h?P , f iH , ?f ? H . (2) That is, we can see the mean embedding ?P as a feature map associated with the kernel K : P ? P ? R, defined as K(P, Q) = h?P , ?Q iH . Since RR RR supx kk(x, ?)kH < ?, it also follows that K(P, Q) = hk(x, ?), k(z, ?)iH dP(x) dQ(z) = k(x, z) dP(x) dQ(z), where the second equality follows from the reproducing property of H. It is immediate that K is a p.d. kernel on P. The following theorem shows that optimal solutions of a suitable class of regularization problems involving distributions can be expressed as a finite linear combination of mean embeddings. Theorem 1. Given training examples (Pi , yi ) ? P ? R, i = 1, . . . , m, a strictly monotonically increasing function ? : [0, +?) ? R, and a loss function ? : (P ? R2 )m ? R ? {+?}, any f ? H minimizing the regularized risk functional ? (P1 , y1 , EP1 [f ], . . . , Pm , ym , EPm [f ]) + ? (kf kH ) Pm i=1 ?i ?Pi for some ?i ? R, i = 1, . . . , m. (3) admits a representation of the form f = Theorem 1 clearly indicates how each distribution contributes to the minimizer of (3). Roughly speaking, the coefficients ?i controls the contribution of the distributions through the mean embeddings ?Pi . Furthermore, if we restrict P to a class of Dirac measures ?x on X and consider 2 functional (3) reduces to the usual regularization functional [11] the training set {(?xi , yi )}m i=1 , theP m and the solution reduces to f = i=1 ?i k(xi , ?). Therefore, the standard representer theorem is recovered as a particular case (see also [12] for more general results on representer theorem). Note that, on the one hand, the minimization problem (3) is different from minimizing the functional EP1 . . . EPm ?(x1 , y1 , f (x1 ), . . . , xm , ym , f (xm ))+?(kf kH ) for the special case of the additive loss ?. Therefore, the solution of our regularization problem is different from what one would get in the limit by training on an infinitely many points sampled from P1 , . . . , Pm . On the other hand, it is also different from minimizing the functional ?(M1 , y1 , f (M1 ), . . . , Mm , ym , f (Mm )) + ?(kf kH ) where Mi = Ex?Pi [x]. In a sense, our framework is something in between. 3 Kernels on probability distributions As the map (1) is linear in P, optimizing the functional (3) amounts to finding R a function in H that approximate well functions from P to R in the function class F , {P ? X g dP | P ? P, g ? C(X )} where C(X ) is a class of bounded continuous functions on X . Since ?x ? P for any x ? X , it follows that C(X ) ? F ? C(P) where C(P) is a class of bounded continuous functions on P endowed with the topology of weak convergence and the associated Borel ?-algebra. The following lemma states the relation between the RKHS H induced by the kernel k and the function class F. Lemma 2. Assuming that X is compact, the RKHS H induced by a kernel k is dense in F if k is universal, i.e., Rfor every function F ? F and every ? > 0 there exists a function g ? H with supP?P |F (P) ? g dP| ? ?. Proof. Assume that k is universal. Then, for every function f ? C(X ) and every ? > 0 there exists a function g ? H induced by k with supx?X |f (x)?g(x)| ? ? [13]. Hence, by linearity R of F, for every F ? F and every ? > 0 there exists a function h ? H such that supP?P |F (P) ? h dP| ? ?.  Nonlinear kernels on P can be defined in an analogous way to nonlinear kernels on X , by treating mean embeddings ?P of P ? P as its feature representation. First, assume that the map (1) is injective and let h?, ?iP be an inner product on P. By linearity, we have hP, QiP = h?P , ?Q iH (cf. [8] for more details). Then, the nonlinear kernels on P can be defined as K(P, Q) = ?(?P , ?Q ) = h?(?P ), ?(?Q )iH? where ? is a p.d. kernel. As a result, many standard nonlinear kernels on X can be used to define nonlinear kernels on P as long as the kernel evaluation depends entirely on the inner product h?P , ?Q iH , e.g., K(P, Q) = (h?P , ?Q iH + c)d . Although requiring more computational effort, their practical use is simple and flexible. Specifically, the notion of p.d. kernels on distributions proposed in this work is so generic that standard kernel functions can be reused to derive kernels on distributions that are different from many other kernel functions proposed specifically for certain distributions. It has been recently proved that the Gaussian RBF kernel given by K(P, Q) = exp(? ?2 k?P ? ?Q k2H ), ?P, Q ? P is universal w.r.t C(P) given that X is compact and the map ? is injective [14]. Despite its success in real-world applications, the theory of kernel-based classifiers beyond the input space X ? Rd , as also mentioned by [14], is still incomplete. It is therefore of theoretical interest to consider more general classes of universal kernels on probability distributions. 3.1 Support measure machines This subsection extends SVMs to deal with probability distributions, leading to support measure machines (SMMs). In its general form, an SMM amounts to solving an SVM problem with the expected kernel K(P, Q) = Ex?P,z?Q [k(x, z)]. This kernel can be computed in closed-form for certain classes of distributions and kernels k. Examples are given in Table 1. Alternatively, one can approximate the kernel K(P, Q) by the empirical estimate: n bn , Q b m) = Kemp (P m 1 XX k(xi , zj ) n ? m i=1 j=1 (4) bn and Q b m are empirical distributions of P and Q given random samples {xi }n and where P i=1 m {zj }j=1 , respectively. A finite sample of size m from a distribution P suffices (with high probability) 3 Table 1: the analytic forms of expected kernels for different choices of kernels and distributions. Distributions Embedding kernel k(x, y) K(Pi , Pj ) = h?Pi , ?Pj iH Arbitrary P(m; ?) Gaussian N (m; ?) Linear hx, yi Gaussian RBF exp(? ?2 kx ? yk2 ) Gaussian N (m; ?) Gaussian N (m; ?) Polynomial degree 2 (hx, yi + 1)2 Polynomial degree 3 (hx, yi + 1)3 mT i mj + ?ij tr ?i exp(? 21 (mi ? mj )T (?i + ?j + ? ?1 I)?1 (mi ? mj )) 1 /|??i + ??j + I| 2 2 T (hmi , mj i + 1) + tr ?i ?j + mT i ?j mi + mj ?i mj (hmi , mj i + 1)3 + 6mT ? ? m i i j j T +3(hmi , mj i + 1)(tr ?i ?j + mT i ?j mi + mj ?i mj ) 1 to compute an approximation within an error of O(m? 2 ). Instead, if the sample set is sufficiently large, one may choose to approximate the true distribution by simpler probabilistic models, e.g., a mixture of Gaussians model, and choose a kernel k whose expected value admits an analytic form. Storing only the parameters of probabilistic models may save some space compared to storing all data points. Note that the standard SVM feature map ?(x) is usually nonlinear in x, whereas ?P is linear in P. Thus, for an SMM, the first level kernel k is used to obtain a vectorial representation of the measures, and the second level kernel K allows for a nonlinear algorithm on distributions. For clarity, we will refer to k and K as the embedding kernel and the level-2 kernel, respectively 4 Theoretical analyses This section presents key theoretical aspects of the proposed framework, which reveal important connection between kernel-based learning algorithms on the space of distributions and on the input space on which they are defined. 4.1 Risk deviation bound Given a training sample {(Pi , yi )}m i=1 drawn i.i.d. from some unknown probability distribution P on P ? Y, a loss function ? : R ? R ? R, and a function class ?, the goal of statistical Rlearning is to find the function f ? ? that minimizes the expected risk functional R R(f ) = R P X ?(y, f (x)) dP(x) dP(P, y). Since P is unknown, the empirical risk Remp (f ) = Pm 1 considered instead. Furthermore, i=1 X ?(yi , f (x)) dPi (x) based on the training sample is P m m P 1 the risk functional can be simplified further by considering m?n i=1 xij ?Pi ?(yi , f (xij )) based on n samples xij drawn from each Pi . Our framework, on the other hand, alleviates the problem by minimizing the risk functional R R? (f ) = P ?(y, EP [f (x)]) dP(P, y) for f ? H with corresponding empirical risk functional Pm 1 R?emp (f ) = m i=1 ?(yi , EPi [f (x)]) (cf. the discussion at the end of Section 2). It is often easier ? to optimize Remp (f ) as the expectation can be computed exactly for certain choices of Pi and H. Moreover, for universal H, this simplification preserves all information of the distributions. Nevertheless, there is still a loss of information due to the loss function ?. Due to the i.i.d. assumption, the analysis of the difference between R and R? can be simplified w.l.o.g. to the analysis of the difference between EP [?(y, f (x))] and ?(y, EP [f (x)]) for a particular distribution P ? P. The theorem below provides a bound on the difference between EP [?(y, f (x))] and ?(y, EP [f (x)]). Theorem 3. Given an arbitrary probability distribution P with variance ? 2 , a Lipschitz continuous function f : R ? R with constant Cf , an arbitrary loss function ? : R ? R ? R that is Lipschitz continuous in the second argument with constant C? , it follows that |Ex?P [?(y, f (x))] ? ?(y, Ex?P [f (x)])| ? 2C? Cf ? for any y ? R. Theorem 3 indicates that if the random variable x is concentrated around its mean and the function f and ? are well-behaved, i.e., Lipschitz continuous, then the loss deviation |EP [?(y, f (x))] ? ?(y, EP [f (x)])| will be small. As a result, if this holds for any distribution Pi in the training set ? {(Pi , yi )}m i=1 , the true risk deviation |R ? R | is also expected to be small. 4 4.2 Flexible support vector machines It turns out that, for certain choices of distributions P, the linear SMM trained using {(Pi , yi )}m i=1 is equivalent to an SVM trained using some samples {(xi , yi )}m i=1 with an appropriate choice of kernel function. RR Lemma 4. Let k(x, z) be a bounded p.d. kernel on a measureR space such that k(x, z)2 dx dz < ?, and g(x, x ?) be a square integrable function such that g(x, x ?) d? x < ? for all x. Given a sample {(Pi , yi )}m i=1 where each Pi is assumed to have a density given by g(xi , x), the linear SMM is equivalent to the SVM on the training sample {(xi , yi )}m i=1 with kernel Kg (x, z) = RR k(? x, z?)g(x, x ?)g(z, z?) d? x d? z. Note that the important assumption for this equivalence is that the distributions Pi differ only in their location in the parameter space. This need not be the case in all possible applications of SMMs. R R Furthermore, we have Kg (x, z) = k(? x, ?)g(x, x ?) d? x, k(? z , ?)g(z, z?) d? z H . Thus, it is clear that the feature map of x depends not only on the kernel k, but also on the density g(x, x ?). Consequently, by virtue of Lemma 4, the kernel Kg allows the SVM to place different kernels at each data point. We call this algorithm a flexible SVM (Flex-SVM). 2 Consider for example the linear SMM with Gaussian distributions N (x1 ; ?12 ? I), . . . , N (xm ; ?m ? I) and Gaussian RBF kernel k?2 with bandwidth parameter ?. The convolution theorem of Gaussian distributions implies that this SMM is equivalent to a flexible SVM that places a data-dependent kernel k?2 +2?i2 (xi , ?) on training example xi , i.e., a Gaussian RBF kernel with larger bandwidth. 5 Related works The kernel K(P, Q) = h?P , ?Q iH is in fact a special case of the Hilbertian metric [5], with the associated kernel K(P, Q) = EP,Q [k(x, x ?)], and a generative mean map kernel (GMMK) proposed by [15]. In the GMMK, the kernel between two objects x and y is defined via p?x and p?y , which are estimated probabilistic models of x and y, respectively. That is, a probabilistic model p?x is learned for each example and used as a surrogate to construct the kernel between those examples. The idea of surrogate kernels hasRalso been adopted by the Probability Product Kernel (PPK) [2]. In this case, we have K? (p, p? ) = X p(x)? p? (x)? dx, which has been shown to be a special case of GMMK when ? = 1 [15]. Consequently, GMMK, PPK with ? = 1, and our linear kernels are equivalent when the embedding kernel is k(x, x? ) = ?(x ? x? ). More recently, the empirical kernel (4) was employed in an unsupervised way for multi-task learning to generalize to a previously unseen task [16]. In contrast, we treat the probability distributions in a supervised way (cf. the regularized functional (3)) and the kernel is not restricted to only the empirical kernel. The use of expected kernels in dealing with the uncertainty in the input data has a connection to robust SVMs. For instance, a generalized form of the SVM in [17] incorporates the probabilistic uncertainty into the maximization of the margin. This results in a second-order cone programming (SOCP) that generalizes the standard SVM. In SOCP, one needs to specify the parameter ?i that reflects the probability of correctly classifying the ith training example. The parameter ?i is therefore closely related to the parameter ?i , which specifies the variance of the distribution centered at the ith example. [18] showed the equivalence between SVMs using expected kernels and SOCP when ?i = 0. When ?i > 0, the mean and covariance of missing kernel entries have to be estimated explicitly, making the SOCP more involved for nonlinear kernels. Although achieving comparable performance to the standard SVM with expected kernels, the SOCP requires a more computationally extensive SOCP solver, as opposed to simple quadratic programming (QP). 6 Experimental results In the experiments, we primarily consider three different learning algorithms: i) SVM is considered as a baseline algorithm. ii) Augmented SVM (ASVM) is an SVM trained on augmented samples drawn according to the distributions {Pi }m i=1 . The same number of examples are drawn from each distribution. iii) SMM is distribution-based method that can be applied directly on the distributions1 . 1 We used the LIBSVM implementation. 5 100 80 60 40 Embedding RBF 1 Level-2 RBF Embedding RBF 2 Level-2 Poly 20 0 0 (a) decision boundaries. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Parameters 7 8 Embedding RBF 2 Embedding RBF 1 Accuracy(%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Level-2 POLY Level-2 RBF (b) sensitivity of kernel parameters Figure 1: (a) the decision boundaries of SVM, ASVM, and SMM. (b) the heatmap plots of average accuracies of SMM over 30 experiments using POLY-RBF (center) and RBF-RBF (right) kernel combinations with the plots of average accuracies at different parameter values (left). Level-2 kernels Table 2: accuracies (%) of SMM on synthetic data with different combinations of embedding and level-2 kernels. 6.1 LIN POLY RBF Embedding kernels POLY3 RBF LIN POLY2 85.20?2.20 83.95?2.11 87.80?1.96 81.04?3.11 81.34?1.21 73.12?3.29 81.10?2.76 82.66?1.75 78.28?2.19 87.74?2.19 88.06?1.73 89.65?1.37 URBF 85.39?2.56 86.84?1.51 86.86?1.88 Synthetic data Firstly, we conducted a basic experiment that illustrates a fundamental difference between SVM, ASVM, and SMM. A binary classification problem of 7 Gaussian distributions with different means and covariances was considered. We trained the SVM using only the means of the distributions, ASVM with 30 virtual examples generated from each distribution, and SMM using distributions as training examples. A Gaussian RBF kernel with ? = 0.25 was used for all algorithms. Figure 1a shows the resulting decision boundaries. Having been trained only on means of the distributions, the SVM classifier tends to overemphasize the regions with high densities and underrepresent the lower density regions. In contrast, the ASVM is more expensive and sensitive to outliers, especially when learning on heavy-tailed distributions. The SMM treats each distribution as a training example and implicitly incorporates properties of the distributions, i.e., means and covariances, into the classifier. Note that the SVM can be trained to achieve a similar result to the SMM by choosing an appropriate value for ? (cf. Lemma 4). Nevertheless, this becomes more difficult if the training distributions are, for example, nonisotropic and have different covariance matrices. Secondly, we evaluate the performance of the SMM for different combinations of embedding and level-2 kernels. Two classes of synthetic Gaussian distributions on R10 were generated. The mean parameters of the positive and negative distributions are normally distributed with means m+ = (1, . . . , 1) and m? = (2, . . . , 2) and identical covariance matrix ? = 0.5 ? I10 , respectively. The covariance matrix for each distribution is generated according to two Wishart distributions with covariance matrices given by ?+ = 0.6 ? I10 and ?? = 1.2 ? I10 with 10 degrees of freedom. The training set consists of 500 distributions from the positive class and 500 distributions from the negative class. The test set consists of 200 distributions with the same class proportion. The kernels used in the experiment include linear kernel (LIN), polynomial kernel of degree 2 (POLY2), polynomial kernel of degree 3 (POLY3), unnormalized Gaussian RBF kernel (RBF), and normalized Gaussian RBF kernel (NRBF). To fix parameter values of both kernel functions and SMM, 10-fold cross-validation (10-CV) is performed on a parameter grid, C ? {2?3 , 2?2 , . . . , 27 } for SMM, bandwidth parameter ? ? {10?3 , 10?2 , . . . , 102 } for Gaussian RBF kernels, and degree parameter d ? {2, 3, 4, 5, 6} for polynomial kernels. The average accuracy and ?1 standard deviation for all kernel combinations over 30 repetitions are reported in Table 2. Moreover, we also investigate the sensitivity of kernel parameters for two kernel combinations: RBF-RBF and POLYRBF. In this case, we consider the bandwidth parameter ? = {10?3 , 10?2 , . . . , 103 } for Gaussian 6 90 100 90 100 95 90 85 100 100 100 95 95 100 95 100 95 90 100 90 80 70 95 95 95 90 85 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 Number of virtual examples Scaling 95 100 30 10 20 30 102 101 100 2000 4000 6000 Number of virtual examples Figure 3: relative computational cost of ASVM and SMM (baseline: SMM with 2000 virtual examples). 70 65 60 55 50 Figure 2: the performance of SVM, ASVM, and SMM algorithms on handwritten digits constructed using three basic transformations. ASVM 103 10-1 Accuracy (%) Accuracy (%) 100 95 90 85 100 95 6 vs 9 Translation 100 3 vs 8 Rotation 3 vs 4 Relative comp. cost SMM 1 vs 8 pLSA SVM LSMM NLSMM Figure 4: accuracies of four different techniques for natural scene categorization. RBF kernels and degree parameter d = {2, 3, . . . , 8} for polynomial kernels. Figure 1b depicts the accuracy values and average accuracies for considered kernel functions. Table 2 indicates that both embedding and level-2 kernels are important for the performance of the classifier. The embedding kernels tend to have more impact on the predictive performance compared to the level-2 kernels. This conclusion also coincides with the results depicted in Figure 1b. 6.2 Handwritten digit recognition In this section, the proposed framework is applied to distributions over equivalence classes of images that are invariant to basic transformations, namely, scaling, translation, and rotation. We consider the handwritten digits obtained from the USPS dataset. For each 16 ? 16 image, the distribution over the equivalence class of the transformations is determined by a prior on parameters associated with such transformations. Scaling and translation are parametrized by the scale factors (sx , sy ) and displacements (tx , ty ) along the x and y axes, respectively. The rotation is parametrized by an angle ?. We adopt Gaussian distributions as prior distributions, including N ([1, 1], 0.1?I2 ), N ([0, 0], 5?I2 ), and N (0; ?). For each image, the virtual examples are obtained by sampling parameter values from the distribution and applying the transformation accordingly. Experiments are categorized into simple and difficult binary classification tasks. The former consists of classifying digit 1 against digit 8 and digit 3 against digit 4. The latter considers classifying digit 3 against digit 8 and digit 6 against digit 9. The initial dataset for each task is constructed by randomly selecting 100 examples from each class. Then, for each example in the initial dataset, we generate 10, 20, and 30 virtual examples using the aforementioned transformations to construct virtual data sets consisting of 2,000, 4,000, and 6,000 examples, respectively. One third of examples in the initial dataset are used as a test set. The original examples are excluded from the virtual datasets. The virtual examples are normalized such that their feature values are in [0, 1]. Then, to reduce computational cost, principle component analysis (PCA) is performed to reduce the dimensionality to 16. We compare the SVM on the initial dataset, the ASVM on the virtual datasets, and the SMM. For SVM and ASVM, the Gaussian RBF kernel is used. For SMM, we employ the empirical kernel (4) with Gaussian RBF kernel as a base kernel. The parameters of the algorithms are fixed by 10-CV over parameters C ? {2?3 , 2?2 , . . . , 27 } and ? ? {0.01, 0.1, 1}. The results depicted in Figure 2 clearly demonstrate the benefits of learning directly from the equivalence classes of digits under basic transformations2 . In most cases, the SMM outperforms both the SVM and the ASVM as the number of virtual examples increases. Moreover, Figure 3 shows the benefit of the SMM over the ASVM in term of computational cost3 . 2 While the reported results were obtained using virtual examples with Gaussian parameter distributions (Sec. 6.2), we got similar results using uniform distributions. TM R 3 Core 2 Duo CPU E8400 at The evaluation was made on a 64-bit desktop computer with Intel 3.00GHz?2 and 4GB of memory. 7 6.3 Natural scene categorization This section illustrates benefits of the nonlinear kernels between distributions for learning natural scene categories in which the bag-of-word (BoW) representation is used to represent images in the dataset. Each image is represented as a collection of local patches, each being a codeword from a large vocabulary of codewords called codebook. Standard BoW representations encode each image as a histogram that enumerates the occurrence probability of local patches detected in the image w.r.t. those in the codebook. On the other hand, our setting represents each image as a distribution over these codewords. Thus, images of different scenes tends to generate distinct set of patches. Based on this representation, both the histogram and the local patches can be used in our framework. We use the dataset presented in [19]. According to their results, most errors occurs among the four indoor categories (830 images), namely, bedroom (174 images), living room (289 images), kitchen (151 images), and office (216 images). Therefore, we will focus on these four categories. For each category, we split the dataset randomly into two separate sets of images, 100 for training and the rest for testing. A codebook is formed from the training images of all categories. Firstly, interesting keypoints in the image are randomly detected. Local patches are then generated accordingly. After patch detection, each patch is transformed into a 128-dim SIFT vector [20]. Given the collection of detected patches, K-means clustering is performed over all local patches. Codewords are then defined as the centers of the learned clusters. Then, each patch in an image is mapped to a codeword and the image can be represented by the histogram of the codewords. In addition, we also have an M ? 128 matrix of SIFT vectors where M is the number of codewords. We compare the performance of a Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (pLSA) with the standard BoW representation, SVM, linear SMM (LSMM), and nonlinear SMM (NLSMM). For SMM, we use the empirical embedding kernel with Gaussian RBF base kernel k: K(hi , hj ) = P M PM r=1 s=1 hi (cr )hj (cs )k(cr , cs ) where hi is the histogram of the ith image and cr is the rth SIFT vector. A Gaussian RBF kernel is also used as the level-2 kernel for nonlinear SMM. For the SVM, we adopt a Gaussian RBF kernel with ?2 -distance between the histograms [21], i.e.,  PM (h (c )?h (c ))2 K(hi , hj ) = exp ???2 (hi , hj ) where ?2 (hi , hj ) = r=1 hii (crr )+hjj (crr ) . The parameters of the algorithms are fixed by 10-CV over parameters C ? {2?3 , 2?2 , . . . , 27 } and ? ? {0.01, 0.1, 1}. For NLSMM, we use the best ? of LSMM in the base kernel and perform 10-CV to choose ? parameter only for the level-2 kernel. To deal with multiple categories, we adopt the pairwise approach and voting scheme to categorize test images. The results in Figure 4 illustrate the benefit of the distribution-based framework. Understanding the context of a complex scene is challenging. Employing distribution-based methods provides an elegant way of utilizing higher-order statistics in natural images that could not be captured by traditional sample-based methods. 7 Conclusions This paper proposes a method for kernel-based discriminative learning on probability distributions. The trick is to embed distributions into an RKHS, resulting in a simple and efficient learning algorithm on distributions. A family of linear and nonlinear kernels on distributions allows one to flexibly choose the kernel function that is suitable for the problems at hand. Our analyses provide insights into the relations between distribution-based methods and traditional sample-based methods, particularly the flexible SVM that allows the SVM to place different kernels on each training example. The experimental results illustrate the benefits of learning from a pool of distributions, compared to a pool of examples, both on synthetic and real-world data. Acknowledgments KM would like to thank Zoubin Gharamani, Arthur Gretton, Christian Walder, and Philipp Hennig for a fruitful discussion. We also thank all three insightful reviewers for their invaluable comments. 8 References [1] Y. H. Yang and T. Speed. Design issues for cDNA microarray experiments. Nat. Rev. Genet., 3(8):579?588, 2002. [2] T. Jebara, R. Kondor, A. Howard, K. Bennett, and N. Cesa-bianchi. Probability product kernels. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:819?844, 2004. [3] A. Bhattacharyya. On a measure of divergence between two statistical populations defined by their probability distributions. Bull. Calcutta Math Soc., 1943. [4] P. J. Moreno, P. P. Ho, and N. Vasconcelos. A Kullback-Leibler divergence based kernel for SVM classification in multimedia applications. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. MIT Press, 2004. [5] M. Hein and O. Bousquet. Hilbertian metrics and positive definite kernels on probability. In Proceedings of The 12th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pages 136?143, 2005. [6] M. Cuturi, K. Fukumizu, and J-P. Vert. Semigroup kernels on measures. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1169?1198, 2005. [7] Andr?e F. T. Martins, Noah A. Smith, Eric P. Xing, Pedro M. Q. Aguiar, and M?ario A. T. Figueiredo. Nonextensive information theoretic kernels on measures. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:935?975, 2009. [8] A. Berlinet and Thomas C. Agnan. Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces in probability and statistics. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004. [9] A. Smola, A. Gretton, L. Song, and B. Sch?olkopf. A hilbert space embedding for distributions. In Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory, pages 13?31. Springer-Verlag, 2007. [10] B. K. Sriperumbudur, A. Gretton, K. Fukumizu, B. Sch?olkopf, and Gert R. G. Lanckriet. Hilbert space embeddings and metrics on probability measures. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 99:1517?1561, 2010. [11] B. Sch?olkopf, R. Herbrich, and A. J. Smola. A generalized representer theorem. In COLT ?01/EuroCOLT ?01, pages 416?426. Springer-Verlag, 2001. [12] F. Dinuzzo and B. Sch?olkopf. The representer theorem for Hilbert spaces: a necessary and sufficient condition. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 189? 196. 2012. [13] I. Steinwart. On the influence of the kernel on the consistency of support vector machines. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2:67?93, 2001. [14] A. Christmann and I. Steinwart. Universal kernels on non-standard input spaces. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 406?414. 2010. [15] N. A. Mehta and A. G. Gray. Generative and latent mean map kernels. CoRR, abs/1005.0188, 2010. [16] G. Blanchard, G. Lee, and C. Scott. Generalizing from several related classification tasks to a new unlabeled sample. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, pages 2178?2186. 2011. [17] P. K. Shivaswamy, C. Bhattacharyya, and A. J. Smola. Second order cone programming approaches for handling missing and uncertain data. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:1283?1314, 2006. [18] H.S. Anderson and M.R. Gupta. Expected kernel for missing features in support vector machines. In Statistical Signal Processing Workshop, pages 285?288, 2011. [19] L. Fei-fei. A bayesian hierarchical model for learning natural scene categories. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), pages 524?531, 2005. [20] D. G. Lowe. Object recognition from local scale-invariant features. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision, pages 1150?1157, Washington, DC, USA, 1999. [21] A. Vedaldi, V. Gulshan, M. Varma, and A. Zisserman. Multiple kernels for object detection. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision, pages 606?613, 2009. 9
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Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling of Suicide Attempts Isabel Valera Department of Signal Processing and Communications University Carlos III in Madrid [email protected] Francisco J. R. Ruiz Department of Signal Processing and Communications University Carlos III in Madrid [email protected] Fernando Perez-Cruz Department of Signal Processing and Communications University Carlos III in Madrid [email protected] Carlos Blanco Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons [email protected] Abstract The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database contains a large amount of information, regarding the way of life, medical conditions, etc., of a representative sample of the U.S. population. In this paper, we are interested in seeking the hidden causes behind the suicide attempts, for which we propose to model the subjects using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the nature of the data, we need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows integrating out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. Finally, the experiments over the NESARC database show that our model properly captures some of the hidden causes that model suicide attempts. 1 Introduction Every year, more than 34,000 suicides occur and over 370,000 individuals are treated for selfinflicted injuries in emergency rooms in the U.S., where suicide prevention is one of the top public health priorities [1]. The current strategies for suicide prevention have focused mainly on both the detection and treatment of mental disorders [13], and on the treatment of the suicidal behaviors themselves [4]. However, despite prevention efforts including improvements in the treatment of depression, the lifetime prevalence of suicide attempts in the U.S. has remained unchanged over the past decade [8]. This suggests that there is a need to improve understanding of the risk factors for suicide attempts beyond psychiatric disorders, particularly in non-clinical populations. According to the National Strategy for Suicide Prevention, an important first step in a public health approach to suicide prevention is to identify those at increased risk for suicide attempts [1]. Suicide attempts are, by far, the best predictor of completed suicide [12] and are also associated with major morbidity themselves [11]. The estimation of suicide attempt risk is a challenging and complex task, with multiple risk factors linked to increased risk. In the absence of reliable tools for identifying those at risk for suicide attempts, be they clinical or laboratory tests, risk detection still relays mainly on clinical variables. The adequacy of the current predictive models and screening methods has been 1 questioned [12], and it has been suggested that the methods currently used for research on suicide risk factors and prediction models need revamping [9]. Databases that model the behavior of human populations present typically many related questions and analyzing each one of them individually, or a small group of them, do not lead to conclusive results. For example, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) samples the U.S. population with nearly 3,000 questions regarding, among others, their way of life, their medical conditions, depression and other mental disorders. It contains yes-or-no questions, and some multiple-choice and questions with ordinal answers. In this paper, we propose to model the subjects in this database using a nonparametric latent model that allows us to seek hidden causes and compact in a few features the immense redundant information. Our starting point is the Indian Buffet Process (IBP) [5], because it allows us to infer which latent features influence the observations and how many features there are. We need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables, as the discrete nature of the database does not allow us to use the standard Gaussian observation model. There are several options for modeling discrete outputs given the hidden latent features, like a Dirichlet distribution or sampling from the features, but we prefer a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution because it is similar to the standard Gaussian observation model, where the observation probability distribution depends on the IBP matrix weighted by some factors. Furthermore, the multinomial-logit model, besides its versatility, allows the implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler where the Laplace approximation [10] is used to integrate out the weighting factors, which can be efficiently computed using the Matrix Inversion Lemma. The IBP model combined with discrete observations has already been tackled in several related works. In [17], the authors propose a model that combines properties from both the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) and the IBP, called IBP compound Dirichlet (ICD) process. They apply the ICD to focused topic modeling, where the instances are documents and the observations are words from a finite vocabulary, and focus on decoupling the prevalence of a topic in a document and its prevalence in all documents. Despite the discrete nature of the observations under this model, these assumptions are not appropriate for categorical observations such as the set of possible responses to the questions in the NESARC database. Titsias [14] introduced the infinite gamma-Poisson process as a prior probability distribution over non-negative integer valued matrices with a potentially infinite number of columns, and he applies it to topic modeling of images. In this model, each (discrete) component in the observation vector of an instance depends only on one of the active latent features of that object, randomly drawn from a multinomial distribution. Therefore, different components of the observation vector might be equally distributed. Our model is more flexible in the sense that it allows different probability distributions for every component in the observation vector, which is accomplished by weighting differently the latent variables. 2 The Indian Buffet Process In latent feature modeling, each object can be represented by a vector of latent features, and the observations are generated from a distribution determined by those latent feature values. Typically, we have access to the set of observations and the main goal of these models is to find out the latent variables that represent the data. The most common nonparametric tool for latent feature modeling is the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). The IBP places a prior distribution over binary matrices where the number of columns (features) K is not bounded, i.e., K ? ?. However, given a finite number of data points N , it ensures that the number of non-zero columns K+ is finite with probability one. Let Z be a random N ? K binary matrix distributed following an IBP, i.e., Z ? IBP(?), where ? is the concentration parameter of the process. The nth row of Z, denoted by zn? , represents the vector of latent features of the nth data point, and every entry nk is denoted by znk . Note that each element znk ? {0, 1} indicates whether the k th feature contributes to the nth data point. Given a binary latent feature matrix Z, we assume that the N ? D observation matrix X, where the nth row contains a D-dimensional observation vector xn? , is distributed according to a probability distribution p(X|Z). Additionally, x?d stands for the dth column of X, and each element of the 2 matrix is denoted by xnd . For instance, in the standard observation model described in [5], p(X|Z) is a Gaussian probability density function. MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods have been broadly applied to infer the latent structure Z from a given observation matrix X (see, e.g., [5, 17, 15, 14]). In particular, we focus on the use of Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the latent variables. The algorithm iteratively samples the value of each element znk given the remaining variables, i.e., it samples from p(znk = 1|X, Z?nk ) ? p(X|Z)p(znk = 1|Z?nk ), (1) where Z?nk denotes all the entries of Z other than znk . The distribution p(znk = 1|Z?nk ) can be readily derived from the exchangeable IBP and can be written as p(znk = 1|Z?nk ) = m P?n,k /N, where m?n,k is the number of data points with feature k, not including n, i.e., m?n,k = i6=n zik . 3 Observation model Let us consider that the observations are discrete, i.e., each element xnd ? {1, . . . , Rd }, where this finite set contains the indexes to all the possible values of xnd . For simplicity and without loss of generality, we consider that Rd = R, but the following results can be readily extended to a different cardinality per input dimension, as well as mixing continuous variables with discrete variables, since given the latent matrix Z the columns of X are assumed to be independent. We introduce matrices Bd of size K ? R to model the probability distribution over X, such that Bd links the hidden latent variables with the dth column of the observation matrix X. We assume r , is given by the multiplethat the probability of xnd taking value r (r = 1, . . . , R), denoted by ?nd logistic function, i.e., r ?nd = p(xnd = r|zn? , Bd ) = exp (zn? bd?r ) , R X d exp (zn? b?r0 ) (2) r 0 =1 bd?r th d where denotes the r column of B . Note that the matrices Bd are used to weight differently the contribution of every latent feature for every component d, similarly as in the standard Gaussian observation model in [5]. We assume that the mixing vectors bd?r are Gaussian distributed with zero 2 I. mean and covariance matrix ?b = ?B The choice of the observation model in Eq. 2, which combines the multiple-logistic function with r Gaussian parameters, is based on the fact that it induces dependencies among the probabilities ?nd that cannot be captured with other distributions, such as the Dirichlet distribution [2]. Furthermore, this multinomial-logistic normal distribution has been widely used to define probability distributions over discrete random variables (see, e.g., [16, 2]). We consider that elements xnd are independent given the latent feature matrix Z and the D matrices Bd . Then, the likelihood for any matrix X can be expressed as p(X|Z, B1 , . . . , BD ) = N Y D Y p(xnd |zn? , Bd ) = n=1 d=1 3.1 N Y D Y xnd ?nd . (3) n=1 d=1 Laplace approximation for inference In Section 2, the (heuristic) Gibbs sampling algorithm for the posterior inference over the latent variables of the IBP has been reviewed and it is detailed in [5]. To sample from Eq. 1, we need to integrate out Bd in (3), as sequentially sampling from the posterior distribution of Bd is intractable, for which an approximation is required. We rely on the Laplace approximation to integrate out the parameters Bd for simplicity and ease of implementation. We first consider the finite form of the proposed model, where K is bounded. Recall that our model assumes independence among the observations given the hidden latent variables. Then, the posterior p(B1 , . . . , BD |X, Z) factorizes as p(B1 , . . . , BD |X, Z) = D Y p(Bd |x?d , Z) = d=1 D Y p(x?d |Bd , Z)p(Bd ) . p(x?d |Z) d=1 3 (4) Hence, we only need to deal with each term p(Bd |x?d , Z) individually. Although the prior p(Bd ) is Gaussian, due to the non-conjugacy with the likelihood term, the computation of the posterior p(Bd |x?d , Z) turns out to be intractable. Following a similar procedure as in Gaussian processes for multiclass classification [16], we approximate the posterior p(Bd |x?d , Z) as a Gaussian distribution using Laplace?s method. In order to obtain the parameters of the Gaussian distribution, we define ?(Bd ) as the un-normalized log-posterior of p(Bd |x?d , Z), i.e., ?(Bd ) = log p(x?d |Bd , Z) + log p(Bd ) ! R N o X n n > o RK X 1 d d> d 2 log exp(zn? b?r0 ) ? 2 trace Bd Bd ? = trace M B ? log(2??B ), 2? 2 B n=1 r 0 =1 (5) where (Md )kr counts the number of data points for which xnd = r and znk = 1, namely, (Md )kr = PN n=1 ?(xnd = r)znk , where ?(?) is the Kronecker delta function. As we prove below, the function ?(Bd ) is a strictly concave function of Bd and therefore it has a unique maximum, which is reached at BdMAP , denoted by the subscript ?MAP? because it coincides with the mean value of the Gaussian distribution in the Laplace?s method (MAP stands for maximum a posteriori). We apply Newton?s method to compute this maximum. PN r By defining (?d )kr = n=1 znk ?nd , the gradient of ?(Bd ) can be derived as ?? = Md ? ?d ? 1 d 2 B . ?B (6) To compute the Hessian, it is easier to define the gradient ?? as a vector, instead of a matrix, and hence we stack the columns of Bd into ? d , i.e., for avid Matlab users, ? d = Bd (:). The Hessian matrix can now be readily computed taking the derivatives of the gradient, yielding ??? = ? 1 d 2 IRK + ?? log p(x?d |? , Z) ?B N X  1 diag(? nd ) ? (? nd )> ? nd ? (z> (7) I ? RK n? zn? ), 2 ?B n=1   1 R 2 , and diag(? nd ) is a diagonal matrix with the values of where ? nd = ?nd , . . . , ?nd , ?nd the vector ? nd as its diagonal elements. The posterior p(? d |x?d , Z) can be approximated as =? p(? d |x?d , Z) ? q(? d |x?d , Z) = N (? d |? dMAP , (????)|?d MAP ), (8) where ? dMAP contains all the columns of BdMAP stacked into a vector. Since p(x?d |? d , Z) is a log-concave function of ? d (see [3, p. 87]), ???? is a positive definite matrix, which guarantees that the maximum of ?(? d ) is unique. Once the maximum BdMAP has been determined, the marginal likelihood p(x?d |Z) can be readily approximated by  1 log p(x?d |Z) ? log q(x?d |Z) = ? 2 trace (BdMAP )> BdMAP 2?B N X  1 2 > > b nd ? (zn? zn? ) + log p(x?d |BdMAP , Z), ? log IRK + ?B diag(b ? nd ) ? (b ? nd ) ? 2 n=1 (9) b nd is the vector ? nd evaluated at Bd = BdMAP . where ? Similarly as in [5], it is straightforward to prove that the limit of Eq. 9 is well-defined if Z has an unbounded number of columns, i.e., as K ? ?. The resulting expression for the marginal likelihood p(x?d |Z) can be readily obtained from Eq. 9 by replacing K by K+ , Z by the submatrix containing only the non-zero columns of Z, and BdMAP by the submatrix containing the K+ corresponding rows. Through the rest of the paper, let us denote with Z the matrix that contains only the K+ non-zero columns of the full IBP matrix. 4 3.2 Speeding up the matrix inversion The inverse of the Hessian matrix, as well as its determinant in (9), can be efficiently carried out if we rearrange the inverse of ??? as follows !?1 N X (????)?1 = D ? vn vn> , (10) n=1 where vn = (? nd )> ? z> n? and D is a block-diagonal matrix, in which each diagonal submatrix is Dr = 1 > r 2 IK+ + Z diag (? ?d ) Z, ?B (11) > r r > , . . . , ?N with ? r?d = [ ?1d d ] . Since vn vn is a rank-one matrix, we can apply the Woodbury identity [18] N times to invert the matrix ????, similar to the RLS (Recursive Least Squares) updates [7]. At each iteration n = 1, . . . , N , we compute  ?1 (D(n?1) )?1 vn vn> (D(n?1) )?1 (D(n) )?1 = D(n?1) ? vn vn> = (D(n?1) )?1 + . (12) 1 ? vn> (D(n?1) )?1 vn For the first iteration, we define D(0) as the block-diagonal matrix D, whose inverse matrix involves computing the R matrix inversions of size K+ ? K+ of the matrices in (11), which can be efficiently solved applying the Matrix Inversion Lemma. After N iterations of (12), it turns out that (????)?1 = (D(N ) )?1 . For the determinant in (9), similar recursions can be applied using the Matrix Determinant Lemma QR [6], which states that |D + vu> | = (1 + v> Du)|D|, and |D(0) | = r=1 |Dr |. 4 4.1 Experiments Inference over synthetic images We generate a simple example inspired by the experiment in [5, p. 1205] to show that the proposed model works as it should. We define four base black-and-white images that can be present or absent with probability 0.5 independently of each other (Figure 1a), which are combined to create a binary composite image. We also multiply each pixel independently with equiprobable binary noise, hence each white pixel in the composite image can be turned black 50% of the times, while black pixels always remain black. Several examples can be found in Figure 1c. We generate 200 examples to learn the IBP model. The Gibbs sampler has been initialized with K+ = 2, setting each znk = 1 2 with probability 1/2, and the hyperparameters have been set to ? = 0.5 and ?B = 1. After 200 iterations, the Gibbs sampler returns four latent features. Each of the four features recovers one of the base images with a different ordering, which is inconsequential. In Figure 1b, we have plotted the posterior probability for each pixel being white, when only one of the components is active. As expected, the black pixels are known to be black (almost zero probability of being white) and the white pixels have about a 50/50 chance of being black or white, due to the multiplicative noise. The Gibbs sampler has used as many as nine hidden features, but after iteration 60, the first four features represent the base images and the others just lock on a noise pattern, which eventually fades away. 4.2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) The NESARC was designed to determine the magnitude of alcohol use disorders and their associated disabilities. Two waves of interviews have been fielded for this survey (first wave in 2001-2002 and second wave in 2004-2005). For the following experimental results, we only use the data from the first wave, for which 43,093 people were selected to represent the U.S. population 18 years of age and older. Public use data are currently available for this wave of data collection. Through 2,991 entries, the NESARC collects data on the background of participants, alcohol and other drug consumption and abuse, medicine use, medical treatment, mental disorders, phobias, 5 (a) (b) (d) ?3600 8 ?3800 6 log p(X|Z) Number of Features (K+) (c) 4 ?4200 2 0 0 ?4000 20 40 60 80 100 Iteration 120 140 160 180 ?4400 0 200 (e) 20 40 60 80 100 Iteration 120 140 160 180 200 (f) Figure 1: Experimental results of the infinite binary multinomial-logistic model over the image data set. (a) The four base images used to generate the 200 observations. (b) Probability of each pixel being white, when a single feature is active (ordered to match the images on the left), computed using BdMAP . (c) Four data points generated as described in the text. The numbers above each figure indicate which features are present in that image. (d) Probabilities of each pixel being white after 200 iterations of the Gibbs sampler inferred for the four data points on (c). The numbers above each figure show the inferred value of zn? for these data points. (e) The number of latent features K+ and (f) the approximate log of p(X|Z) over the 200 iterations of the Gibbs sampler. family history, etc. The survey includes a question about having attempted suicide as well as other related questions such as ?felt like wanted to die? and ?thought a lot about own death?. In the present paper, we use the IBP with discrete observations for a preliminary study in seeking the latent causes which lead to committing suicide. Most of the questions in the survey (over 2,500) are yes-or-no questions, which have four possible outcomes: ?blank? (B), ?unknown? (U), ?yes? (Y) and ?no? (N). If a question is left blank the question was not asked1 . If a question is said to be unknown either it was not answered or was unknown to the respondent. In our ongoing study, we want to find a latent model that describes this database and can be used to infer patterns of behavior and, specifically, be able to predict suicide. In this paper, we build an unsupervised model with the 20 variables that present the highest mutual information with the suicide attempt question, which are shown in Table 1 together with their code in the questionnaire. We run the Gibbs sampler over 500 randomly chosen subjects out of the 13,670 that have answered affirmatively to having had a period of low mood. In this study, we use another 9,500 as test cases and have left the remaining samples for further validation. We have initialized the sampler with an active feature, i.e., K+ = 1, and have set znk = 1 randomly with probability 0.5, and fixing ? = 1 2 and ?B = 1. After 200 iterations, we obtain seven latent features. In Figure 2, we have plotted the posterior probability for each question when a single feature is active. In these plots, white means 0 and black 1, and each row sums up to one. Feature 1 is active for modeling the ?blank? and ?no? answers and, fundamentally, those who were not asked Questions 8 and 10. Feature 2 models the ?yes? and ?no? answers and favors affirmative responses to Questions 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17 and 18, which indicates depression. Feature 3 models blank answers for most of the questions and negative responses to 1, 2, 5, 8 and 10, which are questions related to suicide. Feature 4 models the affirmative answers to 1, 2, 5, 9 and 11 and also have higher probability for unknowns in Questions 3, 4, 6 and 7. Feature 5 models the ?yes? answer to Questions 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 1 In a questionnaire of this size some questions are not asked when a previous question was answered in a predetermined way to reduce the burden of taking the survey. For example, if a person has never had a period of low mood, the attempt suicide question is not asked. 6 10, 17 and 18, being ambivalent in Questions 1 and 2. Feature 6 favors ?blank? and ?no? answers in most questions. Feature 7 models answering affirmatively to Questions 15, 16, 19 and 20, which are related to alcohol abuse. We show the percentage of respondents that answered positively to the suicide attempt questions in Table 2, independently for the 500 samples that were used to learn the IBP and the 9,500 hold-out samples, together with the total number of respondents. A dash indicates that the feature can be active or inactive. Table 2 is divided in three parts. The first part deals with each individual feature and the other two study some cases of interest. Throughout the database, the prevalence of suicide attempt is 7.83%. As expected, Features 2, 4, 5 and 7 favor suicide attempt risk, although Feature 5 only mildly, and Features 1, 3 and 6 decrease the probability of attempting suicide. From the above description of each feature, it is clear that having Features 4 or 7 active should increase the risk of attempting suicide, while having Features 3 and 1 active should cause the opposite effect. Features 3 and 4 present the lowest and the highest risk of suicide, respectively, and they are studied together in the second part of Table 2, in which we can see that having Feature 3 and not having Feature 4 reduces this risk by an order of magnitude, and that combination is present in 70% of the population. The other combinations favor an increased rate of suicide attempts that goes from doubling (?11?) to quadrupling (?00?), to a ten-fold increase (?01?), and the percentages of population with these features are, respectively, 21%, 6% and 3%. In the final part of Table 2, we show combinations of features that significantly increase the suicide attempt rate for a reduced percentage of the population, as well as combinations of features that significantly decrease the suicide attempt rate for a large chunk of the population. These results are interesting as they can be used to discard significant portions of the population in suicide attempt studies and focus on the groups that present much higher risk. Hence, our IBP with discrete observations is being able to obtain features that describe the hidden structure of the NESARC database and makes it possible to pin-point the people that have a higher risk of attempting suicide. # 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source Code S4AQ4A17 S4AQ4A18 S4AQ17A S4AQ17B S4AQ4A19 S4AQ16 S4AQ18 S4CQ15A S4AQ4A12 S4CQ15B S4AQ52 S4AQ55 S4AQ21C S4AQ21A S4AQ20A S4AQ20C S4AQ56 S4AQ54 S4AQ11 S4AQ15IR Description Thought about committing suicide Felt like wanted to die Stayed overnight in hospital because of depression Went to emergency room for help because of depression Thought a lot about own death Went to counselor/therapist/doctor/other person for help to improve mood Doctor prescribed medicine/drug to improve mood/make you feel better Stayed overnight in hospital because of dysthymia Felt worthless most of the time for 2+ weeks Went to emergency room for help because of dysthymia Had arguments/friction with family, friends, people at work, or anyone else Spent more time than usual alone because didn?t want to be around people Used medicine/drug on own to improve low mood prior to last 12 months Ever used medicine/drug on own to improve low mood/make self feel better Ever drank alcohol to improve low mood/make self feel better Drank alcohol to improve mood prior to last 12 months Couldn?t do things usually did/wanted to do Had trouble doing things supposed to do -like working, doing schoolwork, etc. Any episode began after drinking heavily/more than usual Only/any episode prior to last 12 months began after drinking/drug use Table 1: Enumeration of the 20 selected questions in the experiments, sorted in decreasing order according to their mutual information with the ?attempted suicide? question. 5 Conclusions In this paper, we have proposed a new model that combines the IBP with discrete observations using the multinomial-logit distribution. We have used the Laplace approximation to integrate out the weighting factors, which allows us to efficiently run the Gibbs sampler. We have applied our model to the NESARC database to find out the hidden features that characterize the suicide attempt risk. We 7 Hidden features 1 0 1 1 1 - 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 0 0 - Suicide attempt probability Train Hold-out 6.74% 5.55% 10.56% 11.16% 3.72% 4.60% 25.23% 22.25% 8.64% 9.69% 6.90% 7.18% 14.29% 14.18% 30.77% 28.55% 82.35% 61.95% 0.83% 0.87% 14.89% 16.52% 100.00% 69.41% 80.00% 66.10% 0.00% 0.25% 0.33% 0.63% 0.32% 0.41% Number of cases Train Hold-out 430 8072 322 6083 457 8632 111 2355 301 5782 464 8928 91 1664 26 571 17 297 363 6574 94 2058 4 85 5 118 252 4739 299 5543 317 5807 Table 2: Probabilities of attempting suicide for different values of the latent feature vector, together with the number of subjects possessing those values. The symbol ?-? denotes either 0 or 1. The ?train ensemble? columns contain the results for the 500 data points used to obtain the model, whereas the ?hold-out ensemble? columns contain the results for the remaining subjects. Figure 2: Probability of answering ?blank? (B), ?unknown? (U), ?yes? (Y) and ?no? (N) to each of the 20 selected questions, sorted as in Table 1, after 200 iterations of the Gibbs sampler. These probabilities have been obtained with the posterior mean weights BdMAP , when only one of the seven latent features (sorted from left to right to match the order in Table 2) is active. have analyzed how each of the seven inferred features contributes to the suicide attempt probability. We are developing a variational inference algorithm to be able to extend these remarkable results for larger fractions (subjects and questions) of the NESARC database. Acknowledgments Francisco J. R. Ruiz is supported by an FPU fellowship from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Isabel Valera is supported by the Plan Regional-Programas I+D of Comunidad de Madrid (AGESCM S2010/BMD-2422), and Fernando P?erez-Cruz has been partially supported by a Salvador de Madariaga grant. The authors also acknowledge the support of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci?on of Spain (project DEIPRO TEC2009-14504-C02-00 and program Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD200800010 COMONSENS). 8 References [1] Summary of national strategy for suicide prevention: Goals and objectives for action, 2007. Available at: http://www.sprc.org/library/nssp.pdf. [2] D. M. Blei and J. D. Lafferty. A correlated topic model of Science. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1(1):17? 35, August 2007. [3] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, March 2004. [4] G. K. Brown, T. Ten Have, G. R. Henriques, S.X. Xie, J.E. Hollander, and A. T. Beck. Cognitive therapy for the prevention of suicide attempts: a randomized controlled trial. Journal of the American Medical Association, 294(5):563?570, 2005. [5] T. L. Griffiths and Z. Ghahramani. The Indian Buffet Process: An introduction and review. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:1185?1224, 2011. [6] D. A. Harville. Matrix Algebra From a Statistician?s Perspective. Springer-Verlag, 1997. [7] S. Haykin. Adaptive Filter Theory. Prentice Hall, 2002. [8] R. C. Kessler, P. Berglund, G. Borges, M. Nock, and P. S. Wang. Trends in suicide ideation, plans, gestures, and attempts in the united states, 1990-1992 to 2001-2003. Journal of the American Medical Association, 293(20):2487?2495, 2005. [9] K. Krysinska and G. Martin. The struggle to prevent and evaluate: application of population attributable risk and preventive fraction to suicide prevention research. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 39(5):548?557, 2009. [10] D. J. C. MacKay. Information Theory, Inference & Learning Algorithms. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2002. [11] J. J. Mann, A. Apter, J. Bertolote, A. Beautrais, D. Currier, A. Haas, U. Hegerl, J. Lonnqvist, K. Malone, A. Marusic, L. Mehlum, G. Patton, M. Phillips, W. Rutz, Z. Rihmer, A. Schmidtke, D. Shaffer, M. Silverman, Y. Takahashi, A. Varnik, D. Wasserman, P. Yip, and H. Hendin. Suicide prevention strategies: a systematic review. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 294(16):2064?2074, 2005. [12] M. A. Oquendo, E. B. Garc??a, J. J. Mann, and J. Giner. Issues for DSM-V: suicidal behavior as a separate diagnosis on a separate axis. The American Journal of Psychiatry, 165(11):1383?1384, November 2008. [13] K. Szanto, S. Kalmar, H. Hendin, Z. Rihmer, and J. J. Mann. A suicide prevention program in a region with a very high suicide rate. Archives of General Psychiatry, 64(8):914?920, 2007. [14] M. Titsias. The infinite gamma-Poisson feature model. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 19, 2007. [15] J. Van Gael, Y. W. Teh, and Z. Ghahramani. The infinite factorial hidden Markov model. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), volume 21, 2009. [16] C. K. I. Williams and D. Barber. Bayesian classification with Gaussian Processes. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 20:1342?1351, 1998. [17] S. Williamson, C. Wang, K. A. Heller, and D. M. Blei. The IBP Compound Dirichlet Process and its application to focused topic modeling. 11:1151?1158, 2010. [18] M. A. Woodbury. The stability of out-input matrices. Mathematical Reviews, 1949. 9
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Learning about Canonical Views from Internet Image Collections Yair Weiss Elad Mezuman Interdisciplinary Center for Neural Computation School of Computer Science and Engineering Edmond & Lily Safra Center for Brain Sciences Edmond & Lily Safra Center for Brain Sciences Hebrew University of Jerusalem Hebrew University of Jerusalem http://www.cs.huji.ac.il/~yweiss http://www.cs.huji.ac.il/~mezuman Abstract Although human object recognition is supposedly robust to viewpoint, much research on human perception indicates that there is a preferred or ?canonical? view of objects. This phenomenon was discovered more than 30 years ago but the canonical view of only a small number of categories has been validated experimentally. Moreover, the explanation for why humans prefer the canonical view over other views remains elusive. In this paper we ask: Can we use Internet image collections to learn more about canonical views? We start by manually finding the most common view in the results returned by Internet search engines when queried with the objects used in psychophysical experiments. Our results clearly show that the most likely view in the search engine corresponds to the same view preferred by human subjects in experiments. We also present a simple method to find the most likely view in an image collection and apply it to hundreds of categories. Using the new data we have collected we present strong evidence against the two most prominent formal theories of canonical views and provide novel constraints for new theories. 1 Introduction Images of three dimensional objects exhibit a great deal of variation due to viewpoint. Although ideally object recognition should be viewpoint invariant, much research in human perception indicates that certain views are privileged, or ?canonical?. As summarized in Blanz et al. [1] there are at least four senses in which a view can be canonical: ? ? ? ? The viewpoint that is assigned the highest goodness rating by participants The viewpoint that is first imagined in visual imagery The viewpoint that is subjectively selected as the ?best? photograph taken with a camera The viewpoint found to have the lowest response time and error rate in recognition and naming experiments The seminal work of Palmer, Rosch and Chase [2] suggested that all of these definitions give the same canonical view. Fig. 1 presents different views of a horse used in their experiments and the average goodness rating given by human subjects. For the horse, the canonical view is a slightly off-axis sideways view, while the least favored view is from above. Subsequent psychological research using slightly different paradigms have mostly supported their conclusions (see [1, 3, 4] for more recent surveys) and expanded it also to scenes rather than just objects [5]. The preference for side views of horses is very robust and can be reliably demonstrated in simple classroom experiments [6]. What makes this view special? Palmer et al. suggested two formal 1 1.60 1.84 2.12 2.80 3.48 3.72 4.12 4.29 4.8 5.56 5.68 6.36 Figure 1: When people are asked to rate images of the same object from different views some views consistently get better grades than others. The view that gets the best grade is called the canonical view. The images that were used by Palmer et al. [2] for the horse category in their experiments are presented along with their ratings (1-best, 7-worse). theories. The first one, called the frequency hypothesis argues that the canonical view is the one from which we most often see the object. The second one, called the maximal information hypothesis argues that the canonical view is the view that gives the most information about the 3D structure of the object. This view is related to the concept of stable or non-accidental views, i.e. the object will look more or less the same under small transformations of the view. Both of these hypotheses lead to predictions that are testable in principle. If we have access to the statistics with which we view certain objects, we can compute the most frequent view and given the 3D shape of an object we can automatically compute the most stable view [7, 8, 9]. Both of these formal theories have been shown to be insufficient to predict the canonical views preferred by human observers; Palmer et al. [3] presented a small number of counter-examples for each hypothesis. They concluded with the rather vague explanation that: ?Canonical views appear to provide the perceiver with what might be called the most diagnostic information about the object: the information that best discriminates it from other objects, derived from the views from which it is most often seen? [3]. One reason for the relative vagueness of theories of canonical views may be the lack of data: the number of objects for which canonical views have been tested in the lab is at most a few dozens. In this paper, we seek to dramatically increase the number of examples for canonical views using Internet search engines and computer vision tools. We expect that since the canonical view of an object corresponds to what people perceive as the "best" photograph, when people include a photograph of an object in their web page, they are most likely to choose a photograph from the canonical view. In other words, we expect the canonical view to be the most frequent view in the set of images retrieved by a search engine when queried for the object. We start by manually validating our hypothesis and showing that indeed the most frequent view in Internet image collections often corresponds to the cognitive canonical view. We then present an automatic method for finding the most frequent view in a large dataset of images. Rather than trying to map images to views and then finding the most frequent view, we find it by analyzing the density of global image descriptors. Using images for which we have ground truth, we verify that our automatic method indeed finds the most frequent view in a large percentage of the cases. We next apply this method to images retrieved by search engines and find the canonical view for hundreds of categories. Finally we use the canonical views we find to present strong evidence against the two most prominent formal theories of canonical views and provide novel constraints for new theories. 2 Figure 2: The four most frequent views (frequencies specified) manually found in images returned by Google images (second-fifth rows) often corresponds to the canonical view found in psychophysical experiments (first row). 2 Manual experiments with Internet image collections We first asked whether Internet image collections will show the same view biases as reported in psychophysical experiments. In order to answer this question, we downloaded images of the twelve categories used by Palmer et al. [2] in their psychophysical experiments. To download these images we simply queried Google Image search with the object and retrieved the top returned images. For each category we manually sorted the images into bins corresponding to similar views (each category could have a different number of bins), counted the number of images in each bin and found the most frequent view. We used 400 images for the four categories presented in Figure 2 and 100 images for the other eight categories. Figure 2 shows the bins with the highest frequencies along with their frequencies and the cognitive canonical view for car, horse, shoe, and steaming iron categories. The results of this manual experiment are clear cut: for 11 out of the 12 categories, the most frequent view in Google images is the canonical view found by Palmer et al. in the psychophysical experiment (or its mirror view). The only exception is the horse category for which the most frequent view is the one that received the second best ratings in the psychophysical experiments (see figure 1). This study validates our hypothesis that when humans decide which view of an object to embed in a web page, they exhibit a very similar view bias as is seen in psychophysical experiments. This result now gives us the possibility to harness the huge numbers of images available on the Internet to study these view biases in many categories. 3 Can we find the most frequent view automatically? While the results of the previous section suggests that we can harness Internet image collections, repeating our manual experiment for many categories is impractical. Can we find the most frequent view automatically? In the computer vision literature we can find several methods to find representative images. Simon et al. [10] showed how clustering Internet photographs of tourist sites can find several "canonical" views of the site. Clustering on images from the Internet is also used to find canonical views (or iconic images) in other works e.g. Berg and Berg [11] and Raguram and Lazebnik [12]. The earlier 3 work of Denton et al. [13] uses similarity measure between images to find a small subset of canonical images to a larger set of images. The main issue with clustering is that the results depend on the details of the clustering algorithm (initialization, number of clusters etc.) while we look for a method that gives a simple, unique solution. We experimented with clustering methods but found that due to the high variability in our dataset and the difficulty of optimizing the clustering, it was difficult to reliably find clusters that correspond to the most frequent view. Deselaers and Ferrari [14] present a simpler method that finds the image in the center of the GIST image descriptor [15] space to select the prototype image for categories in ImageNet [16]. We experimented with this method and found that often the prototypical image did not correspond to the most frequent view. Jing et al. [17] suggest a method to find a single most representative image (canonical image) for a category relying on similarities between images based on local invariant features. Since they use invariant features the view of the object in the image has no role in the selection of the canonical image. Weyand and Leibe [18] use mode estimation to find iconic images for many images of a single scene using a distance measure based on calculating a homography between the images and measuring the overlap. This is not suitable for our case where we have images of different instances of the same category, not a single rigid scene. Our method to find the most frequent view is based on estimating the density of views using the Parzen window method, and simply choosing the modes of the density as the most frequent views. If we were given the view of each image as input (e.g. its azimuth and elevation) this would be trivial. Pn In that case the estimated density at point x is f?? (x) = n1 i=1 K? (x ? xi ) where {xi }ni=1 are the 2 2 sample points (xi - image i, represented using its view) and K? (x) = e?kxk2 /2? . In real life, of course, the azimuth and elevation are not given as input for each image. One option is to try to compute them. This problem, called pose estimation, is widely studied in computer vision (see [19] for a recent survey for the special case of head poses) and is quite difficult. Here, we take an alternative approach using an attractive feature of the Parzen estimator - it only requires the view similarity between any two images, not the actual views. In other words, if we have an image descriptor so that the distance between descriptors for two images approximates the similarity of views between the objects, we can calculate the Parzen density without ever computing the views. We chose to use the 512 dimension GIST descriptor [15] which has previously been used to model the similarity between images [12, 14, 20, 21]. The descriptor uses Gabor-like filters on the grayscale image, tuned to 8 orientations at 4 different scales and the average square output on a 4x4 grid for each is its output. This descriptor is pose variant (which is good for our application) but also sensitive to the background (which is bad). We hypothesize that despite this sensitivity to the background, the maximum of the Parzen density when we use GIST similarity between images will serve as a useful proxy for the maximum of the Parzen density when we use view similarity. 3.1 Our method In summary, given an object category our algorithm automatically finds the modes of the GIST distribution in images of that object. However, these modes in the GIST distribution are only approximations to the modes of the view distribution. Our method therefore also includes a manual phase which requires a human to view the output of the algorithm and to verify whether or not this mode in the GIST distribution actually corresponds to a mode in the view distribution. In the automatic phase we download images for the category (e.g using Google), remove duplicate images and create GIST descriptors for each image. Next we find the two first modes in the GIST space using Parzen window. The first mode is simply the most frequent image in the GIST space and its k closest neighbors. The second mode is the most frequent image that is not a close neighbor of the first most frequent image (e.g not one of its 10% closest neighbors) and its k closest neighbors. For each mode we create a collage of images representing it and this is the output of the first phase (see fig. 4 for example collages). In the second phase a human is required to glance at each collage and to decide if most of the images are from the same view; i.e. a human observer verifies whether the output of the algorithm corresponds to a true point of high density in view space. To validate this second phase, we have conducted several experiments with synthetic images, where the true view distribution is known. We found that when a human verifies that a set of images that are modes in the GIST space are indeed of the same view, then in almost all cases these images are indeed the modes in view space. These experiments are discussed in the supplementary material. 4 (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 3: By using Parzen density estimation on GIST features, we are able to find the most frequent view without calculating the view for a given image. (a) Distribution of views for 715 images of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, adapted from [22]. (b) Random image from this dataset. The image from the most frequent view (c) is the same image of the most frequent GIST descriptor (d). Although the second phase of our method does require human intervention, it requires only a few seconds. This is much less painful than requiring a human to look at all retrieved images which can take a few hours (the automatic part of the method, that finds the modes in GIST space, takes a few seconds of computer time). 3.2 Validation As mentioned above, the main assumption behind our method is that GIST similarity can serve as a proxy for true view similarity. In order to test this assumption, we conducted experiments on datasets where we knew the ground truth distribution of views. In the first experiment, we ran our automatic method on the same images that we manually sorted into views in the previous section: images downloaded from Google image search for the twelve categories used by Palmer et al. in their psychophysical experiments. Results are shown in figure 4. We find that in 10 out of 12 categories our automatic method found the same most frequent view as we found manually. In a second experiment, we used the Notre Dame dataset of PhotoTourism [22]. This is a dataset of 715 images of the Notre Dame cathedral taken with consumer cameras. The location of each camera was calculated using bundle adjustment [22]. On this dataset, we calculated the most frequent view using Parzen density estimation in two different ways (1) using the similarity between the camera?s rotation matrices and (2) using the GIST similarity between images. As shown in figure 3 the most frequent view calculated using the two methods was identical. 3.3 Control As can be seen in figure 4, the most frequent view chosen by our method often has a white, or uniform background. Will a method that simply chooses images with uniform background can also find canonical views? We checked it and this is not the case, among images with smooth backgrounds there is still a large variation in views. Another possible artifact we considered is the source of the dataset. We wanted to verify we indeed find a global character of the image collections and not a local character of Google. We used our method also on images from ImageNet [16] and Yahoo image search. The ImageNet images were collected by querying various Internet search engines with the desired object, and the resulting set of images was then ?cleaned up? by humans. It is important to note that the humans were not instructed to choose particular views but rather to verify that the image contained the desired object. For a subset of the images, ImageNet also supplies bounding boxes around the object of interest; we cropped the objects from the images and considered it as a fourth dataset. There were almost no repeating images between Google, ImageNet and Yahoo datasets. We saw that our method finds preferred views also in the other datasets and that these preferred views are usually the cognitive canonical views. We also saw that using bounding boxes improves the results somewhat. One example of this improvement is the horse category for which we did not find the most frequent view using the the full images but did find it when we used the cropped images. Results for these control experiment are shown in the supplementary material. 5 Random Palmer First mode Figure 4: Results on categories we downloaded from Google for which the canonical view was found in Palmer et al. experiments. The collages in the third column are of the first mode of the GIST distribution; the first (top left) image is the most frequent image found where the rest of the images are ordered by their closeness (GIST distance) to the most frequent view 6 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) Figure 5: Our experiments reveal hundreds of counter-examples against the two most formal theories of canonical views. Prototypical counter-examples found in our experiments for (a-d) the frequency and (e-i) the maximal information hypotheses. 4 What can we learn from hundreds of canonical views? To summarize our validation experiments: although we use GIST similarity as a proxy for view similarity, our method often finds the canonical view. We now turn to use our method on a large number of categories. We used our method to find canonical views for two groups of object categories: (1) 54 categories inspired by the work of Rosch et al. [23], in which human recognition for categories in different levels of abstraction was studied (Rosch?s categories). (2) 552 categories of mammals (all the categories of mammals in ImageNet [16] for which there are bounding boxes around the objects), for these categories we used the cropped objects. For every object category tested we downloaded all corresponding images (in average more than 1,200 images, out of them around 300 with bounding boxes) from ImageNet. The ? parameter for the RBF kernel window was fixed for each group of categories and was chosen manually (i.e. we used the same parameter for all the 552 mammal categories but a different one for the Google categories where the data is more noisy). For Rosch?s categories we used full images since for some of them bounding boxes are not supplied, for the mammals we used cropped images. For most of the categories the modes found by our algorithm were indeed verified by a human observer as representing a true mode in view space. Thus while our method does not succeed in finding preferred views for all categories, by focusing only on the categories for which humans verified that preferred views were found, we still have canonical views for hundreds of categories. What can we learn from these canonical views? 4.1 Do the basic canonical view theories hold? Palmer et al. [2] raised two basic theories to explain the phenomenon of canonical views: (1) the frequency hypothesis and (2) the maximal information hypothesis. Our experiments reveal hundreds of counter-examples against both theories. We find canonical views of animals that are from the animals? height rather than ours (fig. 5a-b); dogs, for example, are usually seen from above while many of the canonical views we find for dogs are from their height. The canonical views of vehicles are another counter-example for the frequency hypothesis, we usually see vehicles from the side (as pedestrians) or from behind (as drivers), but the canonical views we find are the ?perfect? off-axis view (fig. 5a-b). As a third family of examples we have the tools; we usually see them when we use them, this is not the canonical view we find (fig. 5d). For the maximal information hypothesis we find hundreds of counter-examples. While for 20% of the categories we find off-axis canonical views that give the most information about the shape of the object, for more than 60% of the categories we find canonical views that are either side-views (fig. 5f,i) or frontal views (especially views of the face - fig. 5g). Not only do these views not give us the full information about the 3D structure of the object, they are also accidental, i.e. a small change in the view will cause a big change of the appearance of the object; for example in some of the side-views we see only two legs out of four, a small change in the view will reveal the two other legs. 4.2 Constraints for new theories We believe that our experiments reveal several robust features of canonical views that every future theory should take into considerations. The first aspect is that there are several preferred views for a given object. Sometimes these several views are related to symmetry (e.g. a mirror image of the preferred view is also preferred) but in other cases they are different views that are just slightly less preferred than the canonical view (e.g. both the off-axis and the side-view). Another thing we find is that for images of animals, there is a strong preference for photographing just the face (compared to 7 Random Set First Mode finback cavy rhinoceros uakari Persian cat pickup motor vehicle Figure 6: Selected collages of the automatic method. Palmer?s result on the horse, where a view just of the face was not given as an option and was hence not preferred). The preference for faces depends on the type of animals (e.g. we find it much more for cats and apes than for big animals like horses). When an animal has very unique features, photographs that include this feature are often preferred. Finally, the view biases are most pronounced for basic and subordinate level categories and less so for superordinate categories (e.g. see motor vehicle in fig. 6). While many of these findings are consistent with the vague theory that ?Canonical views appear to provide the perceiver with what might be called the most diagnostic information about the object?, we hope that our experimental data with hundreds of categories will enable formalizing these notions into a computational theory. 5 Conclusion In this work we revisited a cognitive phenomenon that was discovered over 30 years ago: a preference by human observers for particular "canonical" views of objects. We showed that a nearly identical view bias can be observed in the results of Internet image search engines, suggesting that when humans decide which image to embed in a web page, they prefer the same canonical view that is assigned highest goodness in laboratory experiments. We presented an automatic method to discover the most likely view in an image collection and used this algorithm to obtain canonical views for hundreds of object categories. Our results provide strong counter-examples for the two formal hypotheses of canonical views; we hope they will serve as a basis for a computational explanation for this fascinating effect. Acknowledgments This work has been supported by the Charitable Gatsby Foundation and the ISF. The authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. 8 References [1] V. Blanz, M.J. Tarr, H.H. B?lthoff, and T. Vetter. What object attributes determine canonical views? PERCEPTION-LONDON-, 28:575?600, 1999. [2] S. Palmer, E. Rosch, and P. Chase. Canonical perspective and the perception of objects. Attention and performance IX, pages 135?151, 1981. [3] S.E. Palmer. Vision science: Photons to phenomenology, volume 2. MIT press Cambridge, MA., 1999. [4] H.H. B?lthoff and S. Edelman. Psychophysical support for a two-dimensional view interpolation theory of object recognition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 89(1):60, 1992. [5] K.A. Ehinger and A. Oliva. Canonical views of scenes depend on the shape of the space. CogSci, 2011. [6] A Torralba. Lecture notes on explicit and implicit http://people.csail.mit.edu/torralba/courses/6.870/slides/lecture4.ppt. 3d object models. [7] D. Weinshall and M. Werman. On View Likelihood and Stability. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. [8] W.T. Freeman. The generic viewpoint assumption in a framework for visual perception. Nature, 368(6471). [9] PM Hall and MJ Owen. Simple canonical views. In The British Machine Vision Conf.(BMVC05, volume 1, pages 7?16, 2005. [10] I. Simon, N. Snavely, and S.M. Seitz. Scene summarization for online image collections. In Computer Vision, 2007. ICCV 2007. IEEE 11th International Conference on. [11] T.L. Berg and A.C. Berg. Finding iconic images. In CVPR Workshops 2009. [12] R. Raguram and S. Lazebnik. Computing iconic summaries of general visual concepts. In Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition Workshops, 2008. CVPRW?08. 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Discovering favorite views of popular places with iconoid shift. In International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV), 2011 IEEE Conference on. IEEE, 2011. [19] E. Murphy-Chutorian and M.M. Trivedi. Head pose estimation in computer vision: A survey. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, 31(4):607?626, 2009. [20] M. Douze, H. J?gou, H. Sandhawalia, L. Amsaleg, and C. Schmid. Evaluation of gist descriptors for web-scale image search. In Proceeding of the ACM International Conference on Image and Video Retrieval, page 19. ACM, 2009. [21] J. Xiao, J. Hays, K.A. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. SUN database: Large-scale scene recognition from abbey to zoo. In CVPR 2010. [22] N. Snavely, S.M. Seitz, and R. Szeliski. Photo tourism: exploring photo collections in 3d. In ACM Transactions on Graphics (TOG), volume 25, pages 835?846. ACM, 2006. [23] E. Rosch, C.B. Mervis, W.D. Gray, D.M. Johnson, and P. Boyes-Braem. Basic objects in natural categories. 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Transelliptical Component Analysis Han Liu Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering Princeton University, NJ 08544 [email protected] Fang Han Department of Biostatistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21210 [email protected] Abstract We propose a high dimensional semiparametric scale-invariant principle component analysis, named TCA, by utilize the natural connection between the elliptical distribution family and the principal component analysis. Elliptical distribution family includes many well-known multivariate distributions like multivariate Gaussian, t and logistic and it is extended to the meta-elliptical by Fang et.al (2002) using the copula techniques. In this paper we extend the meta-elliptical distribution family to a even larger p family, called transelliptical. We prove that TCA can obtain a near-optimal s log d/n estimation consistency rate in recovering the leading eigenvector of the latent generalized correlation matrix under the transelliptical distribution family, even if the distributions are very heavy-tailed, have infinite second moments, do not have densities and possess arbitrarily continuous marginal distributions. A feature selection result with explicit rate is also provided. TCA is further implemented in both numerical simulations and largescale stock data to illustrate its empirical usefulness. Both theories and experiments confirm that TCA can achieve model flexibility, estimation accuracy and robustness at almost no cost. 1 Introduction Given x1 , . . . , xn ? Rd as n i.i.d realizations of a random vector X ? Rd with population covariance matrix ? and correlation matrix ?0 , the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) aims at recovering the top m leading eigenvectors u1 , . . . , um of ?. In practice, ? is unknown and the top m leading eigenvectors u b1 , . . . , u bm of the Pearson sample covariance matrix are obtained as the estimators. However, because the PCA is well-known to be scale-variant, meaning that changing the measurement scale of variables will make the estimators different, the PCA conducted on the sample correlation matrix is also regular in literatures [2]. It aims at recovering the top m leading eigenvectors ?1 , . . . , ?m of ?0 using the top m leading eigenvectors ?b1 , . . . , ?bm of the Pearson sample correlation matrix. Because ?0 is scale-invariant, we call the PCA aiming at recovering the eigenvectors of ?0 the scale-invariant PCA. In high dimensional settings, when d scales with n, it has been discussed in [14] that u b1 and ?b1 d are generally not consistent estimators of u1 and ?1 . For any two vectors v1 , v2 ? R , denote the angle between v1 and v2 by ?(v1 , v2 ). [14] proved that ?(u1 , u b1 ) and ?(?1 , ?b1 ) do not converge to zero. Therefore, it is commonly assumed that ?1 = (?11 , . . . , ?1d )T is sparse, meaning that card(supp(?1 )) := card({?1j : ?1j 6= 0}) = s < n. This results in a variety of sparse PCA procedures. Here we note that supp(uj ) = supp(?j ), for j = 1, . . . , d. The elliptical distributions are of special interest in Principal Component Analysis. The study of elliptical distributions and their extensions have been launched in statistics recently by [4]. The elliptical distributions can be characterized by their stochastic representations [5]. A random vector Z = (Z1 , . . . , Zd )T is said to follow an elliptical distribution or be elliptically distributed with parameters ?, ?  0, and rank(?) = q, if it admits the stochastic representation: Z = ? + ?AU , where ? ? Rd , ? ? R and U ? Rq are independent random variables, ? ? 0, U is uniformly distributed on the unit sphere in Rq , and A ? Rd?q is a fixed matrix such that AAT = ?. We call 1 ? the generating variable. The density of Z does not necessarily exist. Elliptical distribution family includes a variety of famous multivariate distributions: multivariate Gaussian, multivariate Cauchy, Student?s t, logistic, Kotz, symmetric Pearson type-II and type-VII distributions. We refer to [3, 5] and [4] for more details. [4] introduce the term meta-elliptical distribution in extending the continuous elliptical distributions whose densities exist to a wider class of distributions with densities existing. The construction of the meta-elliptical distributions is based on the copula technique and it was initially introduced by [25]. In particular, when the latent elliptical distribution is the multivariate Gaussian, we have the meta-Gaussian or the nonparanormal distributions introduced by [16] and [19]. The elliptical distribution is of special interest in Principal Component Analysis (PCA). It has been shown in a variety of literatures [27, 11, 22, 12, 24] that the PCA conducted on elliptical distributions shares a number of good properties enjoyed by the PCA conducted on the Gaussian distribution. In particular, [11] show that with regard to a range of hypothesis relevant to PCA, tests based on a multivariate Gaussian assumption have the identical power for all elliptical distributions even without second moments. We will utilize this connection to construct a new model in this paper. In this paper, a new high dimensional scale-invariant principle component analysis approach is proposed, named Transelliptical Component Analysis (TCA). Firstly, to achieve both the estimation accuracy and model flexibility, we build the model of TCA on the transelliptical distributions. A random vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T is said to follow a transelliptical distribution if there exists a set of univariate strictly monotone functions f = {fj }dj=1 such that f (X) := (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T follows a continuous elliptical distribution with parameters ? = 0 and ?0 = [?0jk ]  0. Here diag(?0 ) = 1. Transelliptical distributions do not necessarily possess densities and are strict extensions to the meta-elliptical distributions defined in [4]. TCA aims at recovering the top m leading eigenvectors ?1 , . . . , ?m of ?0 . Secondly, to estimate ?0 robustly and efficiently, instead of estimating the transformation functions {fbj }dj=1 of {fj }dj=1 as [19] did, realizing that {fj }dj=1 preserve the ranks of the data, we utilize the nonparametric rank-based correlation coefficient estimator, Kendall?s tau, to estimate ?0 . We prove that even though the generating variable ? is changing and marginal distributions areparbitrarily continuous, Kendall?s tau correlation matrix approximates ?0 in a parametric rate OP ( log d/n). This key observation makes Kendall?s tau a better estimator than Pearson sample correlation matrix with regard to a much larger distribution family than the Gaussian. Thirdly, in terms of methodology and theory, we analyze the general case that X follows a transelliptical distribution and ?1 is sparse. Here ?1 is the leading eigenvector of ?0 . We obtain the TCA estimator ?e1? of ?1 utilizing the Kendall?s tau correlation matrix. We prove that the TCA can obtain a fast p convergence rate in terms of parameter estimation and is of the rate sin ?(?1 , ?e? ) = OP (s log d/n), where ?e? is the estimator TCA obtains. A feature selection consistency result with explicit rate is also provided. 2 Background We start with notations: Let M = [Mjk ] ? Rd?d and v = (v1 , ..., vd )T ? Rd . Let v?s subvector with entries indexed by I be denoted by vI , M ?s submatrix with rows indexed by I and columns indexed by J be denoted by MIJ . Let MI? and M?J be the submatrix of M with rows in I and all columns, and the submatrix of M with columns in J and all rows. For 0 < q < ?, we define the `0 , `q and `? vector norm as kvk0 := card(supp(v)), kvkq := ( d X i=1 |vi |q )1/q and kvk? := max |vi |. 1?i?d We define the matrix `max norm as the elementwise maximum value: kM kmax := max{|Mij |} and Pn the `? norm as kM k? := max1?i?m j=1 |Mij |. Let ?j (M ) be the toppest j?th eigenvalue of M. In special, ?min (M ) := ?d (M ) and ?max (M ) := ?1 (M ) are the smallest and largest eigenvalues of M . The vectorized matrix of M , denoted by vec(M ), is defined as: vec(M ) := T T T (M?1 , . . . , M?d ) . Let Sd?1 := {v ? Rd : kvk2 = 1} be the d-dimensional unit sphere. The d sign = denotes that the two sides of the equality have the same distributions. For any two vectors a, b ? Rd and any two squared matrices A, B ? Rd?d , denote the inner product of a and b, A and 2 B by ha, bi := aT b and hA, Bi := Tr(AT B). 2.1 Elliptical and Transelliptical Distributions This section is devoted to a brief discussion of elliptical and transelliptical distributions. In the sequel, to be clear, a random vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T is said to be continuous if the marginal distribution functions are all continuous. 2.1.1 Elliptical Distributions In this section we shall firstly provide a definition of the elliptical distributions following [5]. Definition 2.1. Given ? ? Rd and ? ? Rd?d , where rank(?) = q ? d, a random vector Z = (Z1 , . . . , Zd )T is said to have an elliptical distribution or is elliptically distributed with parameters ? and ?, if and only if Z has a stochastic representation: Z =d ? + ?AU , where ? ? Rd , A ? Rd?q , AAT = ?, ? ? 0 is a random variable independent of U , U ? Sq?1 is uniformly distributed in the unit sphere in Rq . In this setting we denote by Z ? ECd (?, ?, ?). A random variable in R with continuous marginal distribution function does not necessarily possess density. A well-known set of examples is the cantor distribution, whose support set is the cantor set. We refer to [7] for more discussions on this phenomenon. ? is symmetric and positive semi-definite, but not necessarily to be positive definite. Proposition 2.1. A random vector Z = (Z1 , . . . , Zd )T has the stochastic representation Z ? ECd (?, ?, ?), if and only if Z has the characteristic function exp(it0 ?)?(t0 ?t), where ? is a properly-defined characteristic function. We denote by X ? ECd (?, ?, ?). If ? is absolutely continuous and ? is non-singular,  then the density of Z exists and is of the form: pZ (z) = |?|?1/2 g (z ? ?)T ??1 (z ? ?) , where g : [0, ?) ? [0, ?). We denote by Z ? ECd (?, ?, g). A proof can be found in page 42 of [5]. When the density exists, ?, ? and g are uniquely determined by one of the other. The relationship among ?, ? and g are described in Theorem 2.2 and Theorem 2.9 of [5]. The next proposition states that ?, ?, ? and A are not unique. Proposition 2.2 (Theorem 2.15 of [5]). (i) If Z = ? + ?AU and Z = ?? + ? ? A? U ? , where A ? Rd?q and A? ? Rd?q , Z is continuous, then there exists a constant c > 0 such that ?? = ?, A? A?T = cAAT , ? ? = c?1/2 ?. (ii) If Z ? ECd (?, ?, ?) and Z ? ECd (?? , ?? , ?? ), Z is continuous, then there exists a constant c > 0 such that ?? = ?, ?? = c?, ?? (?) = ?(c?1 ?). The next proposition discusses the cases where (?, ?, ?) is identifiable for Z. Proposition 2.3. If Z ? ECd (?, ?, ?) is continuous with rank(?) = q, then (1) P(? = 0) = 0; (2)?ii > 0 for i ? {1, . . . , d}; (3)(?, ?, ?) is identifiable for Z under the constraint that max(diag(?)) = 1. p We define ?0 = [?0jk ] with ?0jk = ?jk / ?jj ?kk to be the generalized correlation matrix of Z. ?0 is the correlation matrix of Z when Z?s second moment exists and still reflects the rank dependency even when Z has infinite second moment [13]. 2.1.2 Transelliptical Distributions To extend the elliptical distribution, we firstly define two sets of symmetric matrices: R+ d = {? ? Rd?d : ?T = ?, diag(?) = 1, ?  0}; Rd = {? ? Rd?d : ?T = ?, diag(?) = 1, ?  0}. Definition 2.2. A random vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T with continuous marginal distribution functions F1 , . . . , Fd and density existing is said to follow a meta-elliptical distribution if and only if there exists a continuous elliptically distributed random vector Z ? ECd (0, ?0 , g) with the marginal ?1 ?1 T d distribution function Qg and ?0 ? R+ d , such that (Qg (F1 (X1 )), . . . , Qg (Fd (Xd ))) = Z. In this paper, we generalize the meta-elliptical distribution family to a broader class, named the transelliptical. The transelliptical distributions do not assume that densities exist for both X and Z and are therefore strict extensions to meta-elliptical distributions. Definition 2.3. A random vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T is said to follow a transelliptical distribution if and only if there exists a set of strictly monotone functions f = {fj }dj=1 and a latent continuous elliptically distributed random vector Z ? ECd (0, ?0 , ?) with ?0 ? Rd , such that (f1 (X1 ), . . . , fd (Xd ))T =d Z. We call such X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) and ?0 the latent generalized correlation matrix. 3 Proposition 2.4. If X follows a meta-elliptical distribution, in other words, X possesses density and has continuous marginal distributions F1 , . . . , Fd of X and a continuous random vec?1 T tor Z ? ECd (0, ?0 , g) such that (Q?1 =d Z, then we have g (F1 (X1 )), . . . , Qg (Fd (Xd ))) 0 ?1 ?1 X ? T Ed (? , ?; Qg (F1 ), . . . , Qg (Fd )). To be more clear, the transelliptical distribution family is strictly larger than the meta-elliptical distribution family in three senses: (i) the generating variable ? of the latent elliptical distribution is not necessarily absolute continuous in transelliptical distributions; (ii) the parameter ?0 is strictly enlarged from R+ d to Rd ; (iii) the marginal distributions of X do not necessarily possess densities. The term meta-Gaussian (or the nonparanormal) is introduced by [16, 19]. The term meta-elliptical copula is introduced in [6]. This is actually an alternative definition of the meta-elliptical distribution. The term elliptical copula is introduced in [18]. In summary, transelliptical ? meta-elliptical = meta-elliptical copula ? elliptical* ? elliptical copula, transelliptical ? meta-Gaussian = nonparanormal. Here elliptical* represents the elliptical distributions which are continuous and possess densities. 2.2 Latent Correlation Matrix Estimation for Transelliptical Distributions We firstly study the correlation and covariance matrices of elliptical distributions. Given Z ? ECd (?, ?, ?), we first explore the relationship between the moments of Z and ? and ?. Proposition 2.5. Given Z ? ECd (?, ?, ?) with rank(?) = q and finite second moments and ?0 the 2 generalized correlation matrix of Z, we have E(Z) = ?, Var(Z) = E(?q ) ?, and Cor(Z) = ?0 . When the random vector is elliptically distributed with second moment finite, the sample mean and correlation matrices are element-wise consistent estimators of ? and ?0 . However, the elliptical distributions are generally very heavy-tailed (multivariate t or Cauchy distributions for example), making Pearson sample correlation matrix a bad estimator. When the distribution family is extended to the transelliptical, the Pearson sample correlation matrix is generally no longer a element-wise consistent estimator of ?0 . A similar ?plug-in? idea as [6] works when ? is known. In the general case when ? is unknown, the ?plug-in? idea itself is unavailable. 3 The TCA In this section we propose the TCA approach. TCA is a two-stage method in estimating the leading b Secondly, we plug eigenvectors of ?0 . Firstly, we estimate the Kendall?s tau correlation matrix R. b R into a sparse PCA algorithm. 3.1 Rank-based Measures of Associations The main idea of the TCA is to exploit the Kendall?s tau statistic to estimate the generalized correlation matrix ?0 efficiently and robustly. In detail, let X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )T be a d?dimensional random vector with marginal distributions F1 , . . . , Fd and the joint distributions Fjk for the pair (Xj , Xk ). The population Spearman?s rho and Kendall?s tau correlation coefficients are given by ?(Xj , Xk ) = Corr(Fj (Xj ), Fk (Xk )), ej )(Xk ? X ek ) > 0) ? P((Xj ? X ej )(Xk ? X ek ) < 0), ? (Xj , Xk ) = P((Xj ? X ej , X ek ) is a independent copy of (Xj , Xk ). In particular, for Kendall?s tau, we have where (X the following theorem, which states an explicit relationship between ?jk and ?0jk given X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ), no matter what the generating variable ? is. This is a strict extension to [4]?s result on the meta-elliptical distribution family. Theorem 3.1. Given X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) transelliptically distributed, we have ?  ?0jk = sin ? (Xj , Xk ) . (3.1) 2 Remark 3.1. Although the conclusion in Theorem 3.1 of [4] is correct, the proof provided is wrong or at least very ambiguous. Theorem 2.22 in [5] builds the result only for one sample statistic and cannot be generalized to the statistic of multiple samples, like the Kendall?s tau or Spearman?s rho. Therefore, we provide a new and clear version here. Detailed proofs can be found in the long version of this paper [8]. 4 Spearman?s rho depends not only on ? but also on the generating variable ?. When X follows multivariate Gaussian, [17] proves that: ?(Xj , Xk ) = ?6 arcsin(?0jk /2). On the other hand, when X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) with ? =d 1, [10] proves that: ?(Xj , Xk ) = 3( arcsin ?0jk ) ? ? 4( arcsin ?0jk 3 ) . ? In estimating ? (Xj , Xk ), let x1 , . . . , xn be n independent realizations of X, where xi = (xi1 , . . . , xid )T . We consider the following rank-based statistic: ? X 2 ? ? ?bjk = sign (xij ? xi0 j ) (xik ? xi0 k ) , if j 6= k n(n ? 1) (3.2) 1?i<i0 ?n ? ? ?bjk = 1, if j = k. to approximate ? (Xj , Xk ) and measure the association between Xj and Xk . We define the Kendall?s  b = [R bjk ] such that R bjk = sin ? ?bjk . tau correlation matrix R 2 3.2 Methods The elliptical distribution is of special interest in Principal Component Analysis (PCA). It has been shown in a variety of literatures [27, 11, 22, 12, 24] that the PCA conducted on elliptical distributions share a number of good properties enjoyed by the PCA conducted on the Gaussian distribution. We will utilize this connection to construct a new model in this paper. 3.2.1 TCA Model Utilizing the natural relationship between elliptical distributions and the PCA, we propose the model of Transelliptical Component Analysis (TCA). Here ideas of transelliptical distribution family and scale-invariant PCA are exploited. We wish to estimate the leading eigenvector of the latent generalized correlation matrix. In particular, the following model Md (?0 , ?, s; f ) with f = {fj }dj=1 is considered:  X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ), Md (?0 , ?, s; f ) : (3.3) k?1 k0 = s, where ?1 is the leading eigenvectors of the latent generalized correlation matrix ?0 we are interested Pd T in estimating. By spectral decomposition, we write: ?0 = j=1 ?d ?d ?d , where ?1 ? ?2 ? 0 d?1 . . . ? ?d ? 0 and ?1 > 0 to make ? non-degenerate. ?1 , . . . , ?d ? S are the corresponding eigenvectors of ?1 , . . . , ?d . Inspired by the model Md (?0 , ?, s; f ), it is natural to consider the following optimization problem: b ?e1? = arg max v T Rv, v?Rd subject to v ? Sd?1 ? B0 (s), (3.4) b is the estimated Kendall?s tau correlation matrix. The where B0 (s) := {v ? Rd : kvk0 ? s} and R corresponding global optimum is denoted by ?e1? . 3.2.2 TCA Algorithm b to any sparse PCA algorithm listed Generally we can plug in the Kendall?s tau correlation matrix R above. In this paper, to approximate ?1 , we consider using the Truncated Power method (TPower) proposed by [28] and [20]. The main idea of the TPower is to utilize the power method, but truncate the vector to a `0 ball with radius k in each iteration. Detailed algorithms are provided in the long version of this paper [8]. The final estimator is denoted by ?e? with k?e? k0 = k. It will be shown in Section 4 and Section 5 that the Kendall?s tau correlation matrix is a better statistic in estimating the correlation matrix than the Pearson sample correlation matrix in the sense that (i) it enjoys the Gaussian parametric rate in a much larger distribution family, including many distributions with heavy tails; (ii) it is a more robust estimator, i.e. resistant to outliers. We use the iterative deflation method to learn the first k instead of the first one leading eigenvectors, b ? Rd?s deflates a vector v ? Rd following the discussions of [21, 15, 28, 29]. In detail, a matrix ? 0 b0 T b T b b 0 is orthogonal to v. and achieves a new matrix ? : ? := (I ? vv )?(I ? vv ). In this way, ? 5 4 Theoretical Properties In this section the theoretical properties of the TCA estimators are provided. Especially, we are interested in the high dimensional case when d > n. 4.1 Rank-based Correlation Matrix Estimation b to the This section is devoted to the concentration result of the Kendall sample correlation matrix R 0 b is provided in the next theorem. Pearson correlation matrix ? . The `max convergence rate of R Theorem 4.1. Given x1 , . . . , xn n independent realizations of X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) and b be the Kendall tau correlation matrix, we have with probability at least 1 ? d?5/2 , letting R p b ? ?0 kmax ? 3? log d/n. kR (4.1) Proof sketch. Theorem 4.1 can be proved by realizing that ?bjk is an unbiased estimator of ? (Xj , Xk ) and is a U-statistic with size 2. Hoeffding?s inequality for U-statistic can then be applied to obtain the result. Detailed proofs can be found in the long version of this paper [8]. 4.2 TCA Estimators This section is devoted to the statement of our main result on the upper bound of the estimated error of the TCA global optimum ?e1? and TPower solver ?e? . We assume that the Model Md (?0 , ?, s; f ) holds and the next theorem provides an upper bound on the angle between the estimated leading eigenvector ?e1? and true leading eigenvector ?1 . Theorem 4.2. Let ?e1? be the global solution to Equation (3.4) and the Model Md (?0 , ?, s; f ) holds. For any two vectors v1 ? Sd?1 and v2 ? Sd?1 , letting q | sin ?(v1 , v2 )| = 1 ? (v1T v2 )2 , then we have P | sin ?(?e1? , ?1 )| ? ! r log d 6? ? 1 ? d?5/2 . ?s ? 1 ? ?2 n (4.2) b to ?0 . Proof sketch. The key idea of the proof is to utilize the `max norm convergence result of R Detailed proofs can be found in the long version of this paper [8]. p Generally, when s and ?1 , ?2 do not scale with (n, d), the rate is OP ( log d/n), which is the parametric rate [20, 26, 23] obtains. When (n, d) goes to infinity, the two leading eigenvalues ?1 and ?2 will typically go to infinity and will at least be away from zero. Hence, ourqrate shown in Theorem 4.2 will be usually better than the seemingly more common rate: 6??1 ?1 ??2 ?s log d n . Corollary 4.1 (Feature Selection Consistency of the TCA). Let ?e1? be the global solution to Equation (3.4) and the Model Md (?0 , ?, s; f ) holds. Let b ? := supp(?e1? ). ? := supp(?1 ) and ? If we further have r ? 6 2? log d min |?1j | ? ?s , j?? ? 1 ? ?2 n b ? = ?) ? 1 ? d?5/2 . then we have, P(? Proof sketch. The key of the proof is to construct a contradiction given Theorem 4.2 and the condition on the minimum value of |?1 |. Detailed proofs can be found in the long version of this paper [8]. 6 5 Experiments In this section we investigate the empirical performance of the TCA method. We utilize the TPower algorithm proposed by [28] and the following three methods are considered: (1) Pearson: the classic high dimensional scale-invariant PCA using the Pearson sample correlation matrix of the data; (2) Kendall: the TCA using the Kendall correlation matrix; (3) LatPearson: the classic high dimensional scale-invariant PCA using the Pearson sample correlation matrix of the data drawn from the latent elliptical distribution (perfect without data contamination). 5.1 Numerical Simulations In the simulation study we randomly sample n data points from a certain transelliptical distribution T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ). Here we consider the set up of d = 100. To determine the transelliptical distribution, firstly, we derive ?0 in the following way: A covariance matrix ? is firstly synthesized through the eigenvalue decomposition, where the first two eigenvalues are given and the correspondPd ing eigenvectors are pre-specified to be sparse. In detail, let ? = j=1 ?j uj uTj , where ?1 = 6, ?2 = 3, ?3 = . . . = ?d = 1, and the first two leading eigenvectors of ?, u1 and u2 , are sparse with the first s = 10 entries of u1 and the second s = 10 entries of u2 are nonzero, i.e.  1  1 ? ? 1 ? j ? 10 11 ? j ? 20 10 10 u1j = and u2j = . (5.1) 0 otherwise 0 otherwise The remaining eigenvectors are chosen arbitrarily. The generalized correlation matrix ?0 is generated from ?, with ?1 = 4, ?2 = 2.5, ?3 , . . . , ?d ? 1 and the top two leading eigenvectors sparse:   ? ?110 1 ? j ? 10 ? ?110 11 ? j ? 20 ?1j = (5.2) and ?2j = . 0 otherwise 0 otherwise Secondly, using ?0 , we consider the following three generating schemes: [Scheme 1] X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) with ? ? ?d and f1 (x) = . . . = fd (x) = x. Here p Y12 + . . . + Yd2 ? ?d with Y1 , . . . , Yd ?i.i.d N (0, 1). In other words, ?d is the chi-distribution with degree of freedom d. This is equivalent to say that X ? N (0, ?0 ) (Example 2.4 of [5]). ? [Scheme 2] X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) with ? =d m?1? /?2? and f1 (x) = . . . = fd (x) = x. ? ? ? ? Here ?1 ? ?d , ?2 ? ?m , ?1 is independent of ?2 and m ? N. This is equivalent to say that X ? M td (m, 0, ?0 ), i.e. X following a multivariate-t distribution with degree of freedom m, mean 0 and covariance matrix ?0 (Example 2.5 of [5]). Here we consider m = 3. ? [Scheme 3] X ? T Ed (?0 , ?; f1 , . . . , fd ) with ? =d m?1? /?2? . Here ?1? ? ?d , ?2? ? ?m , ?1? is in? dependent of ?2 and m = 3. Moreover, {f1 , . . . , fd } = {h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , h1 , h2 , h3 , h4 , h5 , . . .}, where R ?(x) ? ?(t)?(t)dt sign(x)|x|1/2 ?1 ?1 ?1 h1 (x) := x, h2 (x) := qR , h3 (x) := qR , 2 R |t|?(t)dt ?(y) ? ?(t)?(t)dt ?(y)dy R exp(x) ? exp(t)?(t)dt x3 ?1 ?1 h4 (x) := qR , h5 (x) := qR . 2 R t6 ?(t)dt exp(y) ? exp(t)?(t)dt ?(y)dy This is equivalent to say that X is transelliptically distributed with the latent elliptical distribution Z ? M td (3, 0, ?0 ). To evaluate the robustness of different methods, let r ? [0, 1) represent the proportion of samples being contaminated. For each dimension, we randomly select bnrc entries and replace them with either 5 or -5 with equal probability. The final data matrix we obtained is X ? Rn?d . Here we pick r = 0, 0.02 or 0.05. Under the Scheme 1 to Scheme 3 with different levels of contamination (r = 0, 0.02 or 0.05), we repeatedly generate the data matrix X for 1,000 times and compute the averaged False Positive Rates and False Negative Rates using a path of tuning parameters k from 5 to 90. The feature selection performances of different methods are then evaluated by plotting (FPR(k), 1 ? FNR(k)). The corresponding ROC curves are presented in Figure 1 (A). More results are shown in the long version of this paper [8]. It can be observed that Kendall is generally better and more resistance to the outliers compared with Pearson. 7 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 95 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 1.0 1.0 0.8 Pearson Kendall 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 0.6 0.8 0.6 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 0.4 90 0.4 0.2 85 0.2 0.0 80 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.0 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 0.0 0.0 0.8 75 0.8 0.6 Successful Matches % 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0 0.2 0.8 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 1.0 50 100 150 200 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 1.0 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Pearson Kendall LatPearson 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 k 1.0 (A) (B) Figure 1: (A) ROC curves under Scheme 1, Scheme 2 and Scheme 3 (top, middle, bottom) and data contamination at different levels (r = 0, 0.02, 0.05 from left to right). x?axis is FPR and y?axis is TPR. Here n = 100 and d = 100. (B) Successful matches of the market trend proportions only using the stocks in Ak and Bk . The x?axis represents the tuning parameter k scaling from 1 to 200; the y?axis represents the % of successful matches. The curve denoted by ?Kendall? represents the points of (k, ?Ak ) and the curves denoted by ?Pearson? represents the points of (k, ?Bk ). 5.2 Equities Data In this section we apply the TCA on the stock price data from Yahoo! Finance (finance.yahoo. com). We collected the daily closing prices for J=452 stocks that were consistently in the S&P 500 index between January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2008. This gave us altogether T=1,257 data points, each data point corresponds to the vector of closing prices on a trading day. Let St = [Stt,j ] denote by the closing price of stock j on day t. We wish to evaluate the ability of using the only k stocks to represent the trend of the whole stock market. To this end, we run Kendall and Pearson on St and obtain the leading eigenvectors ?eKendall and ?eP earson using the tuning parameter k ? N. Let Ak := supp(?eKendall ) and Bk := supp(?eP earson ). And then we let TtW , TtAk and TtBk denote by the trend of the whole stocks, Ak stocks and Bk stocks in tth day compared with t ? 1th date, i.e: X X X X TtW := I( Stt,j ? Stt?1,j >), TtAk := I( Stt,j ? Stt?1,j > 0) j j j?Ak and TtBk := I( X Stt,j ? j?Bk X j?Ak Stt?1,j > 0), j?Bk here I is the indicator function. In this way, we can calculate the proportion of successful matches P of the market trend using the stocks in Ak and Bk as: ?Ak := T1 t I(TtW = TtAk ) and ?Bk := P Bk 1 W t I(Tt = Tt ). We visualize the result by plotting (k, ?Ak ) and (k, ?Bk ) on a 2D figure. The T result is presented in Figure 1 (B). It can be observed from Figure 1 (B) that Kendall summarizes the trend of the whole stock market constantly better than Pearson. Moreover, the averaged difference between the two methods are P 1 k (?Ak ? ?Bk ) = 1.4025 with the standard deviation 0.6743. Therefore, the difference is 200 significant. 6 Acknowledgement This research was supported by NSF award IIS-1116730. 8 References [1] TW Anderson. Statistical inference in elliptically contoured and related distributions. Recherche, 67:02, 1990. [2] M.G. Borgognone, J. Bussi, and G. Hough. Principal component analysis in sensory analysis: covariance or correlation matrix? Food quality and preference, 12(5-7):323?326, 2001. [3] S. Cambanis, S. Huang, and G. Simons. On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 11(3):368?385, 1981. [4] H.B. Fang, K.T. Fang, and S. Kotz. The meta-elliptical distributions with given marginals. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 82(1):1?16, 2002. [5] KT Fang, S. Kotz, and KW Ng. Symmetric multivariate and related distributions. Chapman&Hall, London, 1990. [6] C. Genest, AC Favre, J. B?eliveau, and C. Jacques. Metaelliptical copulas and their use in frequency analysis of multivariate hydrological data. Water Resour. Res, 43(9):W09401, 2007. [7] P.R. Halmos. Measure theory, volume 18. Springer, 1974. [8] F. Han and H. Liu. Tca: Transelliptical principal component analysis for high dimensional non-gaussian data. Technical Report, 2012. [9] W. Hoeffding. Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 13?30, 1963. [10] H. Hult and F. Lindskog. Multivariate extremes, aggregation and dependence in elliptical distributions. Advances in Applied probability, 34(3):587?608, 2002. [11] DR Jensen. The structure of ellipsoidal distributions, ii. principal components. Biometrical Journal, 28(3):363?369, 1986. [12] DR Jensen. Conditioning and concentration of principal components. Australian Journal of Statistics, 39(1):93?104, 1997. [13] H. Joe. Multivariate models and dependence concepts, volume 73. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1997. [14] I.M. Johnstone and A.Y. Lu. Sparse principal components analysis. Arxiv preprint arXiv:0901.4392, 2009. [15] M. Journ?ee, Y. Nesterov, P. Richt?arik, and R. Sepulchre. Generalized power method for sparse principal component analysis. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:517?553, 2010. [16] KS Kelly and R. Krzysztofowicz. A bivariate meta-gaussian density for use in hydrology. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 11(1):17?31, 1997. [17] W.H. Kruskal. Ordinal measures of association. Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 814?861, 1958. [18] D. Kurowicka, J. Misiewicz, and RM Cooke. Elliptical copulae. In Proc of the International Conference on Monte Carlo Simulation-Monte Carlo, pages 209?214, 2000. [19] H. Liu, J. Lafferty, and L. Wasserman. The nonparanormal: Semiparametric estimation of high dimensional undirected graphs. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:2295?2328, 2009. [20] Z. Ma. Sparse principal component analysis and iterative thresholding. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1112.2432, 2011. [21] L. Mackey. Deflation methods for sparse pca. Advances in neural information processing systems, 21:1017?1024, 2009. [22] G.P. McCabe. Principal variables. Technometrics, pages 137?144, 1984. [23] D. Paul and I.M. Johnstone. Augmented sparse principal component analysis for high dimensional data. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1202.1242, 2012. [24] GQ Qian, G. Gabor, and RP Gupta. Principal components selection by the criterion of the minimum mean difference of complexity. Journal of multivariate analysis, 49(1):55?75, 1994. [25] A. Sklar. Fonctions de r?epartition a` n dimensions et leurs marges. Publ. Inst. Statist. Univ. Paris, 8(1):11, 1959. [26] V.Q. Vu and J. Lei. Minimax rates of estimation for sparse pca in high dimensions. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1202.0786, 2012. [27] C.M. Waternaux. Principal components in the nonnormal case: The test of equality of q roots. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 14(3):323?335, 1984. [28] X.T. Yuan and T. Zhang. Truncated power method for sparse eigenvalue problems. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1112.2679, 2011. [29] Y. Zhang, A. dAspremont, and L.E. Ghaoui. Sparse pca: Convex relaxations, algorithms and applications. Handbook on Semidefinite, Conic and Polynomial Optimization, pages 915?940, 2012. 9
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Collaborative Ranking With 17 Parameters Richard S. Zemel University of Toronto [email protected] Maksims N. Volkovs University of Toronto [email protected] Abstract The primary application of collaborate filtering (CF) is to recommend a small set of items to a user, which entails ranking. Most approaches, however, formulate the CF problem as rating prediction, overlooking the ranking perspective. In this work we present a method for collaborative ranking that leverages the strengths of the two main CF approaches, neighborhood- and model-based. Our novel method is highly efficient, with only seventeen parameters to optimize and a single hyperparameter to tune, and beats the state-of-the-art collaborative ranking methods. We also show that parameters learned on datasets from one item domain yield excellent results on a dataset from very different item domain, without any retraining. 1 Introduction Collaborative Filtering (CF) is a method of making predictions about an individual?s preferences based on the preference information from many users. The emerging popularity of web-based services such as Amazon, YouTube, and Netflix has led to significant developments in CF in recent years. Most applications use CF to recommend a small set of items to the user. For instance, Amazon presents a list of top-T products it predicts a user is most likely to buy next. Similarly, Netflix recommends top-T movies it predicts a user will like based on his/her rating and viewing history. However, while recommending a small ordered list of items is a ranking problem, ranking in CF has gained relatively little attention from the learning-to-rank community. One possible reason for this is the Netflix[3] challenge which was the primary venue for CF model development and evaluation in recent years. The challenge was formulated as a rating prediction problem, and almost all of the proposed models were designed specifically for this task, and were evaluated using the normalized squared error objective. Another potential reason is the absence of user-item features. The standard learning-to-rank problem in information retrieval (IR), which is well explored with many powerful approaches available, always includes item features, which are used to learn the models. These features incorporate a lot of external information and are highly engineered to accurately describe the query-document pairs. While a similar approach can be taken in CF settings, it is likely to be very time consuming to develop analogous features, and features developed for one item domain (books, movies, songs etc.) are likely to not generalize well to another. Moreover, user features typically include personal information which cannot be publicly released, preventing open research in the area. An example of this is the second part of the Netflix challenge which had to be shut down due to privacy concerns. The absence of user-item features makes it very challenging to apply the models from the learning-to-rank domain to this task. However, recent work [23, 15, 2] has shown that by optimizing a ranking objective just given the known ratings a significantly higher ranking accuracy can be achieved as compared to models that optimize rating prediction. Inspired by these results we propose a new ranking framework where we show how the observed ratings can be used to extract effective feature descriptors for every user-item pair. The features do not require any external information and make it it possible to apply any learning-to-rank method to optimize the parameters of the ranking function for the target metric. Experiments on MovieLens and Yahoo! datasets show that our model outperforms existing rating and ranking approaches to CF. 1 Moreover, we show that a model learned with our approach on a dataset from one user/item domain can then be applied to a different domain without retraining and still achieve excellent performance. 2 Collaborative Ranking Framework In a typical collaborative filtering (CF) problem we are given a set of N users U = {u1 , ..., uN } and a set of M items V = {v1 , ..., vM }. The users? ratings of the items can be represented by an N ?M matrix R where R(un , vm ) is the rating assigned by user un to item vm and R(un , vm ) = 0 if vm is not rated by un . We use U(vm ) to denote the set of all users that have rated vm and V(un ) to denote the set of items that have been rated by un . We use vector notation: R(un , :) denotes the n?th row of R (1 ? M vector), and R(:, vm ) denotes the m?th column (N ? 1 vector). As mentioned above, most research has concentrated on the rating prediction problem in CF where the aim is to accurately predict the ratings for the unrated items for each user. However, most applications that use CF typically aim to recommend only a small ranked set of items to each user. Thus rather than concentrating on rating prediction we instead approach this problem from the ranking viewpoint and refer to it as Collaborative Ranking (CR). In CR the goal is to rank the unrated items in the order of relevance to the user. A ranking of the items V can be represented as a permutation ? : {1, ..., M } ? {1, ..., M } where ?(m) = l denotes the rank of the item vm and m = ? ?1 (l). A number of evaluation metrics have been proposed in IR to evaluate the performance of the ranking. Here we use the most commonly used metric, Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) [12]. For a given user un and ranking ? the NDCG is given by: N DCG(un , ?, R)@T = T X 2?R(un , v??1 (t) ) ? 1 1 GT (un , R) t=1 log(t + 1) (1) where T is a truncation constant, v??1 (t) is the item in position t in ? and GT (un , R) is a normalizing term which ensures that N DCG ? [0, 1] for all rankings. T is typically set to a small value to emphasize that the user will only be shown the top-T ranked items and the items below the top-T are not evaluated. 3 Related Work Related work in CF and CR can be divided into two categories: neighborhood-based approaches and model-based approaches. In this section we describe both types of models. 3.1 Neighborhood-Based Approaches Neighborhood-based CF approaches estimate the unknown ratings for a target user based on the ratings from the set of neighborhood users that tend to rate similarly to the target user. Formally, given the target user un and item vm the neighborhood-based methods find a subset of K neighbor users who are most similar to un and have rated vm , i.e., are in the set U(vm ) \ un . We use K(un , vm ) ? U(vm ) \ un to denote the set of K neighboring users. A central component of these methods is the similarity function ? used to compute the neighbors. Several such functions have been proposed including the Cosine Similarity [4] and the Pearson Correlation [20, 10]: ?cos (un , u0 ) = R(un , :) ? R(u0 , :)T kR(un , :)kkR(u0 , :)k ?pears (un , u0 ) = (R(un , :) ? ?(un )) ? (R(u0 , :) ? ?(u0 ))T kR(i, :) ? ?(un )kkR(u0 , :) ? ?(u0 )k where ?(un ) is the average rating for un . Once the K neighbors are found the rating is predicted by taking the weighted average of the neighbors? ratings. An analogous item-based approach [22] can be used when the number of items is smaller than the number of users. One problem with the neighborhood-based approaches is that the raw ratings often contain user bias. For instance, some users tend to give high ratings while others tend to give low ones. To correct for these biases various methods have been proposed to normalize or center the ratings [4, 20] before computing the predictions. Another major problem with the neighborhood-based approaches arises from the fact that the observed rating matrix R is typically highly sparse, making it very difficult to find similar neighbors reliably. To addresss this sparsity, most methods employ dimensionality reduction [9] and data smoothing [24] to fill in some of the unknown ratings, or to cluster users before computing user 2 similarity. This however adds computational overhead and typically requires tuning additional parameters such as the number of clusters. A neighborhood-based approach to ranking has been proposed recently by Liu & Yang [15]. Instead of predicting ratings, this method uses the neighbors of un to fill in the missing entries in the M ?M pairwise preference matrix Yn , where Yn (vm , vl ) is the preference strength for vm over vl by un . Once the matrix is completed an approximate Markov chain algorithm is used to infer the ranking from the pairwise preferences. The main drawback of this approach is that the model is not optimized for the target evaluation metric, such as NDCG. The ranking is inferred directly from Yn and no additional parameters are learned. In general, to the best of our knowledge, no existing neighborhood-based CR method takes the target metric into account during optimization. 3.2 Model-Based Approaches In contrast to the neighborhood-based approaches, the model-based approaches use the observed ratings to create a compact model of the data which is then used to predict the unobserved ratings. Methods in this category include latent models [11, 16, 21], clustering methods [24] and Bayesian networks [19]. Latent factorization models such as Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) [21] are the most popular model-based approaches. In PMF every user un and item vm are represented by latent vectors ?(un ) and ?(vm ) of length D. For a given user-item pair (un , vm ) the dot product of the corresponding latent vectors gives the rating prediction: R(un , vm ) ? ?(un ) ? ?(vm ). The latent representations are learned by minimizing the squared error between the observed ratings and the predicted ones. Latent models have more expressive power and typically perform better than the neighborhoodbased models when the number of observed ratings is small because they are able to learn preference correlations that extend beyond the simple neighborhood similarity. However, this comes at the cost of a large number of parameters and complex optimization. For example, with the suggested setting of D = 20 the PMF model on the full Netflix dataset has over 10 million parameters and is prone to overfitting. To prevent overfitting the weighted `2 norms of the latent representations are minimized together with the squared error during the optimization phase, which introduces additional hyperparameters to tune. Another problem with the majority of the model-based approaches is that inference for a new user/item is typically expensive. For instance, in PMF the latent representation has to be learned before any predictions can be made for a new user/item, and if many new users/items are added the entire model has to be retrained. On the other hand, inference for a new user in neighborhood-based methods can be done efficiently by simply computing the K neighbors, which is a key advantage of these approaches. Several model-based approaches to CR have recently been proposed, notably CofiRank [23] and the PMF-based ranking model [2]. CofiRank learns latent representations that minimize a ranking-based loss instead of the squared error. The PMF-based approach uses the latent representations produced by PMF as user-item features and learns a ranking model on these features. The authors of that work also note that the PMF representations might not be optimal for ranking since they are learned using a squared error objective which is very different from most ranking metric. To account for this they propose an extension where both user-item features and the weights of the ranking function are optimized during learning. Both methods incorporate NDCG during the optimization phase which is a significant advantage over most neighborhood-based approaches to CR. However, neither method addresses the optimization or inference problems mentioned above. In the following section we present our approach to CR which leverages the advantages of both neighborhood and model-based methods. 3.3 Learning-to-Rank Learning-to-rank has received a lot of attention in the machine learning community due to its importance in a wide variety of applications ranging from information retrieval to natural language processing to computer vision. In IR the learning-to-rank problem consists of a set of training queries where for each query we are given a set of retrieved documents and their relevance labels that indicate the degree of relevance to the query. The documents are represented as query dependent feature vectors and the goal is to learn a feature-based ranking function to rank the documents in the order of relevance to the query. Existing approaches to this problem can be partitioned into three 3 Figure 1: An example rating matrix R and the resulting WIN, LOSS and TIE matrices for the user-item pair (u3 , v4 ) with K = 3 (number of neighbors). (1) Top-3 closest neighbors {u1 , u5 , u6 } are selected from U(v4 ) = {u1 , u2 , u5 , u6 } (all users who rated v4 ). Note that u2 is not selected because the ratings for u2 deviate significantly from those for u3 . (2) The WIN, LOSS and TIE matrices are computed for each neighbor using Equation 2. Here g ? 1 is used to compute the matrices. For example, u5 gave a rating of 3 to v4 which ties it with v3 and beats v1 . Normalizing by |V(u5 )| ? 1 = 2 gives WIN34 (u5 ) = 0.5, LOSS34 (u5 ) = 0 and TIE34 (u5 ) = 0.5. categories: pointwise, pairwise, and listwise. Due to the lack of space we omit the description of the individual approaches here and instead refer the reader to [14] for an excellent overview. 4 Our Approach The main idea behind our approach is to transform the CR problem into a learning-to-rank one and then utilize one of the many developed ranking methods to learn the ranking function. CR can be placed into the learning-to-rank framework by noting that the users correspond to queries and items to documents. For each user the observed ratings indicate the relevance of the corresponding items to that user and can be used to train the ranking function. The key difference between this setup and the standard learning-to-rank one is the absence of user-item features. In this work we bridge this gap and develop a robust feature extraction approach which does not require any external user or item information and is based only on the available training ratings. 4.1 Feature Extraction The PMF-based ranking approach [2] extracts user-item features by concatenating together the latent representations learned by the PMF model. The model thus requires the user-item representations to be learned before the items can be ranked and hence suffers from the main disadvantages of the model-based approaches: the large number of parameters, complex optimization, and expensive inference for new users and items. In this work we take a different approach which avoids these disadvantages. We propose to use the neighbor preferences to extract the features for a given useritem pair. Formally, given a user-item pair (un , vm ) and a similarity function ?, we use ? to extract a subset of the K most similar users to un that rated vm , i.e., K(un , vm ). This step is identical to the standard neighborhood-based model, and ? can be any rating or preference based similarity function. Once K(un , vm ) = {uk }K k=1 is found, instead of using only the ratings for vm , we use all of the observed ratings for each neighbor and summarize the net preference for vm into three K ? 1 summary preference matrices WINnm , LOSSnm and TIEnm : 1 |V(uk )| ? 1 WINnm (k) = LOSSnm (k) 1 = |V(uk )| ? 1 TIEnm (k) = 1 |V(uk )| ? 1 X g(R(uk , vm ), R(uk , v 0 ))I[R(uk , vm ) > R(uk , v 0 )] v 0 ?V(uk )\vm X g(R(uk , vm ), R(uk , v 0 ))I[R(uk , vm ) < R(uk , v 0 )] (2) v 0 ?V(uk )\vm X I[R(uk , vm ) = R(uk , v 0 )] v 0 ?V(uk )\vm where I[x] is an indicator function evaluating to 1 if x is true and to 0 otherwise, and g : R2 ? R is the pairwise preference function used to convert ratings to pairwise preferences. A simple choice for g is g ? 1 which ignores the rating magnitude and turns the matrices into normalized counts. However, recent work in preference aggregation [8, 13] has shown that additional gain can be achieved by taking the relative rating magnitude into account by using either the normalized rating or log rating difference. All three versions of g address the user bias problem mentioned above by using 4 relative comparisons rather than the absolute rating magnitude. In this form WINnm (k) corresponds to the net positive preference for vm by neighbor uk . Similarly, LOSSnm (k) corresponds to the net negative preference and TIEnm (k) counts the number of ties. Together the three matrices thus describe the relative preferences for vm across all the neighbors of un . Normalization by |V(uk ) \ vm | (number of observed ratings for uk excluding vm ), ensures that the entries are comparable across neighbors with different numbers of ratings. For unpopular items vm that do not have many ratings with |U(vm )| < K, the number of neighbors will be less than K, i.e., |K(un , vm )| < K. When such an item is encountered we shrink the preference matrices to be the same size as |K(un , vm )|. Figure 1 shows an example rating matrix R together with the preference matrices computed for the user-item pair (u3 , v4 ). Given the preference matrix WINnm we summarize it with a set of simple descriptive statistics: " 1 X ?(WINnm ) = ?(WINnm ), ?(WINnm ), max(WINnm ), min(WINnm ), I[WINnm (k) 6= 0] K # k where ? and ? are mean and standard deviation functions respectively. The last statistic counts the number of neighbors (out of K) that express any positive preference towards vm , and together with ? summarizes the overall confidence of the preference. Extending this procedure to the other two preference matrices and concatenating the resulting statistics gives the feature vector for (un , vm ): ?(un , vm ) = [?(WINnm ), ?(LOSSnm ), ?(TIEnm )] (3) Intuitively the features describe the net preference for vm and its variability across the neighbors. Note that since ? is independent of K, N and M this representation will have the same length for every user-item pair. We have thus created a fixed length feature representation for every useritem pair, effectively transforming the CR problem into a standard learning-to-rank one. During training our aim is now to use the observed training ratings to learn a scoring function f : R|?| ? R which maximizes the target IR metric, such as NDCG, across all users. At test time, given a user u and items {v1 , ..., vM }, we (1) extract features for each item vm using the neighbors of (u, vm ); (2) apply the learned scoring function to get the score for every item; and (3) sort the scores to produce the ranking. This process is shown in Figure 2. It is important to note here that, first, a single scoring function Figure 2: The flow diagram for is learned for all users and items so the number of parameters is WLT, our feature-based CR model. independent of the number of users or items and only depends on the size of ?. This is a significant advantage over most model-based approaches where the number of parameters typically scales linearly with the number of users and/or items. Second, given a new user u no optimization is necessary to produce a ranking of the items for u. Similarly to neighborhoodbased methods, our approach only requires computing the neighbors to extract the features and apply the learned scoring function to get the ranking. This is also a significant advantage over most userbased approaches where it is typically necessary to learn a new model for every user not present in the training data before predictions can be made. Finally, unlike the existing neighborhoodbased methods to CR our approach allows to optimize the parameters of the model for the target metric. Moreover, the extracted features incorporate preference confidence information such as the variance across the neighbors and the fraction of the neighbors that generated each preference type (positive, negative and tie). Taking this information into account allows us to adapt the parameters of the scoring function to sparse low-confidence settings and addresses the reliability problem of the neighborhood-based methods (see Section 3.1). Note that an analogous item-based approach can be taken here by similarly summarizing the preferences of un for items that are closest to vm , we leave this for future work. A modified version of this approach adapted to binary ratings recently placed second in the Million Song Dataset Challenge [18] ran by Kaggle. 4.2 Learning the Scoring Function Given the user-item features extracted based on the neighbors our goal is to use the observed training ratings for each user to optimize the parameters of the scoring function for the target IR metric. A key difference between this feature-based CR approach and the typical learning-to-rank setup is the 5 possibility of missing features. If a given training item vm is not ranked by any other user except un the feature vector is set to zero (?(un , vm ) ? 0). One way to avoid missing features is to learn only with those items that have at least  ratings in the training set. However, in very sparse settings this would force us to discard some of the valuable training data. We take a different approach, modifying the conventional linear scoring function to include an additional bias term b0 : f (?(un , vm ), W) = w ? ?(un , vm ) + b + I[U(vm ) \ un = ?]b0 (4) where W = {w, b, b0 } is the set of free parameters to be learned. Here w has the same dimension as ?, and I is an indicator function. The bias term b0 provides a base score for vm if vm does not have enough ratings in the training data. Several possible extensions of this model are worth mentioning here. First, the scoring function can be made non-linear by adding additional hidden layer(s) as done in conventional multilayer neural networks. Second, user information can be incorporated into the model by learning user specific weights. To incorporate user information we can learn a separate set of weights wn for each user un or group of users. The weights will provide user specific information and are then applied to rank the unrated items for the corresponding user(s). However, this extension makes the approach similar to the model-based approaches, with all the corresponding disadvantages mentioned above. Finally, additional user/item information such as, for example, personal information for users and description/genre etc. for items, can be incorporated by simply concatenating it with ?(un , vm ) and expanding the dimensionality of W. Note that if these additional features can be extracted efficiently, incorporating them will not add significant overhead to either learning or inference and the model can still be applied to new users and items very efficiently. In the form given by Equation 4 our model has a total of |?|+2 parameters to be learned. We can use any of the developed learning-to-rank approaches to optimize W. In this work we chose to use the LambdaRank method, due it its excellent performance, having recently won the Yahoo! LearningTo-Rank Challenge [7]. We omit the description of LambdaRank here due to the lack of space, and refer the reader to [6] and [5] for a detailed description. 5 Experiments To validate the proposed approach we conducted extensive experiments on three publicly available datasets: two movie datasets MovieLens-1, MovieLens-2, and a musical artist dataset from Yahoo! [1]. All datasets were kept as is except Yahoo!, which we subsampled by first selecting the 10,000 most popular items and then selecting the 100,000 users with the most ratings. The subsampling was done to speed up the experiments as the original dataset has close to 2 million users and 100,000 items. In addition to subsampling we rescaled user ratings from 0-100 to the 1-5 interval to make the data consistent with the other two datasets. The rescaling was done by mapping 0-19 to 1, 20-39 to 2, etc. The user, item and rating statistics are summarized in Table 1. To investigate the effect that the number of ratings has on accuracy we follow the framework of [23, 2]. For each dataset we randomly select 10, 20, 30, 40 ratings Table 1: Dataset statistics. from each user for training, 10 for validation and test on Dataset Users Items Ratings the remaining ratings. Users with less than 30, 40, 50, MovieLens-1 1000 1700 100,000 60 ratings were removed to ensure that we could evaluate MovieLens-2 72,000 10,000 10,000,000 on at least 10 ratings for each user. Note that the number Yahoo! 100,000 10,000 45,729,723 of test items varies significantly across users with many users having more test ratings than training ones. This simulates the real life CR scenario where the set of unrated items from which the recommendations are generated is typically much larger than the rated item set for each user. We trained our ranking model, referred to as WLT, using stochastic gradient descent with the learning rates 10?2 , 10?3 , 10?4 for MovieLens-1, MovieLens-2 and Yahoo! respectively. We found that 1 to 21 iterations was sufficient to trained the models. We also found that using smaller learning rates typically resulted in better generalization. We compare WLT with a well established userbased (UB) collaborative filtering model. We also compare with two collaborative ranking models: PMF-based ranker [2] (PMF-R) and CofiRank [23] (CO). To make the comparison fair we used the same LambdaRank architecture to train both WLT and PMF-R. Note that both PMF-R and CofiRank report state-of-the-art CR results. To compute the PMF features we used extensive cross-validation to determine the L2 penalty weights and the latent dimension size D (5, 10, 10 for MovieLens1, MovieLens-2, and Yahoo! datasets respectively). For CofiRank we used the settings suggested 1 Note that 1 iteration of stochastic gradient descent corresponds to |U| weight updates. 6 Table 2: Collaborative Ranking results. NDCG values at different truncation levels are shown within the main columns, which are split based on the number of training ratings. Each model?s rounded number of parameters is shown in brackets, with K = thousand, M = million. 10 20 30 40 N@1 N@3 N@5 N@1 N@3 N@5 N@1 N@3 N@5 N@1 N@3 N@5 MovieLens-1: UB PMF-R(12K) CO(240K) WLT(17) 49.30 69.39 67.28 70.96 54.67 68.33 66.23 68.25 57.36 68.65 66.59 67.98 57.49 72.50 71.82 70.34 61.81 70.42 70.80 69.50 62.88 69.95 70.30 69.21 64.25 72.77 71.60 71.41 65.75 72.23 71.15 71.16 66.58 71.55 70.58 71.02 62.27 74.02 71.43 74.09 64.92 71.55 71.64 71.85 66.14 70.90 71.43 71.52 MovieLens-2: UB PMF-R(500K) CO(5M) WLT(17) 67.62 70.12 70.14 72.78 68.23 69.41 68.40 71.70 68.74 69.35 68.46 71.49 71.29 70.65 68.80 73.93 70.78 70.04 68.51 72.63 70.87 70.09 68.76 72.37 72.65 72.22 64.60 74.67 71.98 71.48 65.62 73.37 71.90 71.43 66.38 73.04 73.33 72.18 62.82 75.19 72.63 71.60 63.49 73.73 72.42 71.55 64.25 73.30 Yahoo!: UB PMF-R(1M) CO(10M) WLT(17) 57.20 52.86 57.42 58.76 55.29 51.98 56.88 55.20 54.31 51.53 56.46 53.53 64.29 63.93 60.59 66.06 61.48 62.42 59.94 62.77 60.16 61.65 59.48 61.21 66.82 66.82 62.07 69.74 63.83 65.41 61.10 66.58 62.42 64.61 60.54 65.02 68.97 69.46 61.68 71.50 65.89 68.05 60.78 68.52 64.50 67.21 60.24 67.00 in [23] and ran the code available on the author?s home page. Similarly to [2], we found that the regression-based objective almost always gave the best results for CofiRank, consistently outperforming NDCG and ordinal objectives. For WLT and UB models we use cosine similarity as the distance function to find the top-K neighbors. Note that using the same similarity function ensures that both models select the same neighbor sets and allows for fair comparison. The number of neighbors K was cross validated in the range [10, 100] on the small MovieLens-1 dataset and set to 200 on all other datasets as we found the results to be insensitive for K above 100 which is consistent with the findings of [15]. In all experiments only ratings in the training set were used to select the neighbors, and make predictions for the validation and test set items. 5.1 Results The NDCG (N@T) results at truncations 1,3 and 5 are shown in Table 2. From the table it is seen that the WLT model performs comparably to the best baseline on MovieLens-1, outperforms all methods on MovieLens-2 and is also the best overall approach on Yahoo!. Across the datasets the gains are especially large at lower truncations N@1 and N@3, which is important since those items will most likely be the ones viewed by the user. Several patterns can also be seen from the table. First, when the number of users and ratings is small (MovieLens-1) the performance of the UB approach significantly drops. This is likely due to the fact that neighbors cannot be found reliably in this setting since users have little overlap in ratings. By taking into account the confidence information such as the number of available neighbors WLT is able to significantly improve over UB while using the same set of neighbors. On MovieLens-1 WLT outperforms UB by as much as 20 NDCG points. Second, for larger datasets such as MovieLens-2 and Yahoo! the model-based approaches have millions of parameters (shown in brackets in Table 2) to optimize and are highly prone to overfitting. Tuning the hyper-parameters for these models is difficult and computationally expensive in this setting as it requires conducting many cross-validation runs over large datasets. On the other hand, our approach achieves consistently better performance with only 17 parameters, and a single hyper-parameter K which is fixed to 200. Overall, the results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed features which generalize well when both few and many users available. 5.2 Transfer Learning Results In addition to the small number of parameters, another advantage of our approach over most modelbased methods is that inference for a new user only requires finding the K neighbors. Thus both users and items can be taken from a different, unseen during training, set. This transfer learning task is much more difficult than the strong generalization task [17] commonly used to test CF methods on new users. In strong generalization the models are evaluated on users not present at training time while keeping the item set fixed, while here the item set also changes. Note that it is impossible to 7 Table 3: Transfer learning NDCG results. Original: WLT model trained on the respective dataset. WLT-M1 and WLT-M2 models are trained on MovieLens-1 and MovieLens-2 respectively, WLT-Y is trained on Yahoo!. WLT-M1, WLT-M2 and WLT-Y models are applied to other datasets without retraining. 10 20 30 40 N@1 N@3 N@5 N@1 N@3 N@5 N@1 N@3 N@5 N@1 N@3 N@5 MovieLens-1: Original 70.96 68.25 67.98 WLT-M2 63.15 62.46 62.75 WLT-Y 44.12 47.06 48.75 70.34 69.50 69.21 69.66 68.61 68.47 61.73 62.60 63.57 71.41 71.16 71.02 71.02 70.99 70.88 67.33 66.99 67.99 74.09 71.85 71.52 73.28 71.70 71.46 71.11 69.22 68.95 MovieLens-2: Original 72.78 71.70 71.49 WLT-M1 72.90 71.77 71.57 WLT-Y 68.04 68.03 68.41 73.93 72.63 72.37 73.97 72.59 72.34 71.54 71.02 71.07 74.67 73.37 73.04 74.67 73.36 73.01 73.15 72.38 72.25 75.19 73.73 73.30 75.28 73.76 73.28 74.00 73.03 72.79 Yahoo!: Original WLT-M1 WLT-M2 66.06 62.77 61.21 66.03 62.68 61.18 65.29 61.95 60.47 69.74 66.58 65.02 68.93 65.85 64.32 68.68 65.55 64.07 71.50 68.52 67.00 71.15 68.17 66.65 70.84 67.91 66.44 58.76 55.20 53.53 57.93 53.91 52.35 58.81 54.70 53.15 apply PMF-R, CO and most other model-based methods to this setting without re-training the entire model. Our model, on the other hand, can be applied without re-training by simply extracting the features for every new user-item pair and applying the learned scoring function to rank the items. To test the generalization properties of the model we took the three learned WLT models (referred to as WLT-M1, WLT-M2, WLT-Y for MovieLens-1&2 and Yahoo! respectively) and applied each model to the datasets that it was not trained on. So for instance WLT-M1 was applied to MovieLens-2 and Yahoo!. Table 3 shows the transfer results for each of the datasets along with the original results for the WLT model trained on each dataset (referred to as Original). Note that none of the models were re-trained or tuned in any way. From the table it seen that our model generalizes very well to different domains. For instance, WLT-M1 trained on MovieLens-1 is able to achieve state-of-the art performance on MovieLens-2, outper- Figure 3: Normalized WLT weights. White/black correforming all the baselines that were trained spond to positive/negative weights; the weight magnitude on MovieLens-2. Note that MovieLens-2 is proportional to the square size. has over 5 times more items and 72 times more users than MovieLens-1, majority of which the WLTM1 model has not seen during training. Moreover, perhaps surprisingly, our model also generalizes well across item domains. The WLT-Y model trained on musical artist data achieves state-of-the-art performance on MovieLens-2 movie data, performing better than all the baselines when 20, 30 and 40 ratings are used for training. Moreover, both WLT-M1 and WLT-M2 achieve very competitive results on Yahoo! outperforming most of the baselines. More insight into why the model generalizes well can be gained from Figure 3, which shows the normalized weights learned by the WLT models on each of the three datsets. The weights are partitioned into feature sets from each of the three preference matrices (see Equation 2). From the figure it can be seen that the learned weights share a lot of similarities. The weights on the features from the WIN matrix are mostly positive while those on the features from the LOSS matrix are mostly negative. Mean preferences and the number of neighbors features have the highest absolute weights which indicates that they are the most useful for predicting the item scores. The similarity between the weight vectors suggests that the features convey very similar information and remain invariant across different user/item sets. 6 Conclusion In this work we presented an effective approach to extract user-item features based on neighbor preferences. The features allow us to apply any learning-to-rank approach to learn the ranking function. Experimental results show that by using these features state-of-the art ranking results can be achieved. Going forward, the strong transfer results call into question whether the complex machinery developed for CF is appropriate when the true goal is recommendation, as the required information for finding the best items to recommend can be obtained from basic neighborhood statistics. We are also currently investigating additional features such as neighbors? rating overlap. 8 References [1] The Yahoo! R1 dataset. http://webscope.sandbox.yahoo.com/catalog.php? datatype=r. [2] S. Balakrishnan and S. Chopra. Collaborative ranking. In WSDM, 2012. [3] J. Bennet and S. Lanning. The Netflix prize. www.cs.uic.edu/?liub/ KDD-cup-2007/NetflixPrize-description.pdf. [4] J. S. Breese, D. Heckerman, and C. Kadie. Empirical analysis of predictive algorithm for collaborative filtering. In UAI, 1998. [5] C. J. C. Burges. From RankNet to LambdaRank to LambdaMART: An overview. Technical Report MSR-TR-2010-82, 2010. [6] C. J. C. Burges, R. Rango, and Q. V. Le. Learning to rank with nonsmooth cost functions. In NIPS, 2007. [7] O. Chapelle, Y. Chang, and T.-Y. Liu. The Yahoo! Learning To Rank Challenge. http: //learningtorankchallenge.yahoo.com, 2010. [8] D. F. Gleich and L.-H. Lim. Rank aggregation via nuclear norm minimization. In SIGKDD, 2011. [9] K. Y. Goldberg, T. Roeder, D. Gupta, and C. Perkins. Eigentaste: A constant time collaborative filtering algorithm. Information Retrieval, 4(2), 2001. [10] J. Herlocker, J. A. Konstan, and J. Riedl. An empirical analysis of design choices in neighborhood-based collaborative filtering algorithms. Information Retrieval, 5(4), 2002. [11] T. Hofmann. Latent semantic models for collaborative filtering. ACM Trans. Inf. Syst., 22(1), 2004. [12] K. Jarvelin and J. Kekalainen. IR evaluation methods for retrieving highly relevant documents. In SIGIR, 2000. [13] X. Jiang, L.-H. Lim, Y. Yao, and Y. Ye. Statistical ranking and combinatorial hodge theory. Mathematical Programming, 127, 2011. [14] H. Li. Learning to Rank for Information Retrieval and Natural Language Processing. Morgan & Claypool, 2011. [15] N. Liu and Q. Yang. Eigenrank: A ranking-oriented approach to collaborative filtering. In SIGIR, 2008. [16] B. Marlin. Modeling user rating profiles for collaborative filtering. In NIPS, 2003. [17] B. Marlin. Collaborative filtering: A machine learning perspective. Master?s thesis, University of Toronto, 2004. [18] B. McFee, T. Bertin-Mahieux, D. Ellis, and G. R. G. Lanckriet. The Million Song Dataset Challenge. In WWW, http://www.kaggle.com/c/msdchallenge, 2012. [19] D. M. Pennock, E. Horvitz, S. Lawrence, and C. L. Giles. Collaborative filtering by personality diagnosis: A hybrid memory and model-based approach. In UAI, 2000. [20] P. Resnick, N. Iacovou, M. Suchak, P. Bergstrom, and J. Riedl. Grouplens: An open architecture for collaborative filtering of netnews. In CSCW, 1994. [21] R. Salakhutdinov and A. Mnih. Probabilistic matrix factorization. In NIPS, 2008. [22] B. Sarwar, G. Karypis, J. Konstan, and J. Riedl. Item-based collaborative filtering recommendation algorithms. In WWW, 2001. [23] M. Weimer, A. Karatzoglou, Q. V. Le, and A. J. Smola. CofiRank - maximum margin matrix factorization for collaborative ranking. In NIPS, 2007. [24] G.-R. Xue, C. Lin, Q. Yang, W. Xi, H.-J. Zeng, Y. Yu, and Z. Chen. Scalable collaborative filtering using cluster-based smoothing. In SIGIR, 2005. 9
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Modeling Applications with the Focused Gamma Net Jose C. Principe, Bert de Vries, Jyh-Ming Kuo and Pedro Guedes de Oliveira? Department of Electrical Engineering University of Florida, CSE 447 Gainesville, FL 32611 [email protected] *Departamento EletronicalINESC Universidade de Aveiro A veiro, Portugal Abstract The focused gamma network is proposed as one of the possible implementations of the gamma neural model. The focused gamma network is compared with the focused backpropagation network and TDNN for a time series prediction problem, and with ADALINE in a system identification problem. 1 INTRODUCTION At NIPS-90 we introduced the gamma neural model, a real time neural net for temporal processing (de Vries and Principe, 1991). This model is characterized by a neural short term memory mechanism, the gamma memory structure, which is implemented as a tapped delay line of adaptive dispersive elements. The gamma model seems to provide an integrative framework to study the neural processing of time varying patterns (de Vries and Principe, 1992). In fact both the memory by delays as implemented in TDNN (Lang et aI, 1990) and memory by local feedback (self-recurrent loops) as proposed by Jordan (1986), and Elman (1990) are special cases of the gamma memory structure . The preprocessor utilized in Tank's and Hopfield concentration in time (CIT) network (Tank and Hopfield, 1989) can be shown to be very similar to the dispersive structure utilized in the gamma memory (deVries, 1991). We studied the gamma memory as an independent adaptive filter structure (Principe et ai, 1992), and concluded that it is a special case of a class of IIR (infinite impulse response) adaptive filters, which we called the generalized feedforward structures . For these structures, the well known Wiener-Hopf solution to find the optimal filter weights can be analytically computed . One of the advantages of the gamma memory as an adaptive filter is that. although being a recursive structure. stability is easily ensured . Moreover. the LMS algorithm can be easily 143 144 Principe, de Vries, Kuo, and de Oliveira extended to adapt all the filter weights, including the parameter that controls the depth of memory, with the same complexity as the conventional LMS algorithm (i.e. the algorithm complexity is linear in the number of weights). Therefore, we achieved a theoretical framework to study memory mechanisms in neural networks. In this paper we compare the gamma neural model with other well established neural networks that process time varying signals. Therefore the first step is to establish a topology for the gamma model. To make the comparison easier with respect to TDNN and Jordan's networks, we will present our results based on the focused gamma network. The focused gamma network is a multilayer feedforward structure with a gamma memory plane in the first layer (Figure 1). The learning equations for the focused gamma network and its memory characteristics will be addressed in detail. Examples will be presented for prediction of complex biological signals (electroencephalogram-EEG) and chaotic time series, as well as a system identification example. 2 THE FOCUSED GAMMA NET The focused neural architecture was introduced by Mozer (1988) and Stornetta et al (1988). It is characterized by a a two stage topology where the input stage stores traces of the input signal, followed by a nonlinear continuous feedforward mapper network (Figure 1). The gamma memory plane represents the input signal in a timespace plane (spatial dimension M, temporal dimension K). The activations in the memory layer are Iik(t), and the activations in the feedforward network are represented by xi(t). Therefore the following equations apply respectively for the input memory plane and for the feedforward network, Io(t) = Ii(t) Iik(t) = (1-~)Iik(t-1)+Jl/j,k_l(t-1),i=1, ... ,M;k=1, ... ,K. Xj(t) = (J(Lwijxj(t) j <i + LWijkIjk(t? , i=1, ... ,N. (1) ( 2) j, k where ~i is an adaptive parameter that controls the depth of memory (Principe et aI, 1992), and Wijk are the spatial weights. Notice that the focused gamma network for K=1 is very similar to the focused-backpropagation network of Mozer and Stornetta. Moreover, when Jl= I the gamma memory becomes a tapped delay line which is the configuration utilized in TDNN, with the time-to-space conversion restricted to the first layer (Lang et aI, 1990). Notice also that if the nonlinear feedforward mapper is restricted to one layer of linear elements, and Jl=1, the focused gamma memory becomes the adaptive linear combiner - ADALINE (Widrow et al,1960). In order to better understand the computational properties of the gamma memory we defined two parameters, the mean memory depth D and memory resolution R as K D=~ K R=-=Jl D (3) Modeling Applications with the Focused Gamma Net (de Vries, 1991). Memory depth measures how far into the past the signal conveys information for the processing task, while resolution quantifies the temporal proximity of the memory traces. Figure 1. The focus gamma network architecture The important aspect in the gamma memory formalism is that Il, which controls both the memory resolution and depth, is an adaptive parameter that is learned from the signal according to the optimization of a performance measure. Therefore the focused gamma network always works with the optimal memory depth/ resolution for the processing problem. The gamma memory is an adaptive recursive structure, and as such can go unstable during adaptation. But due to the local feedback nature of G(z), stability is easily ensured by keeping O<Il<2. The focused gamma network is a recurrent neural model, but due to the topology selected, the spatial weights can be learned using regular backpropagation (Rumelhart et aI, 1986). However for the adaptation of Il, a recurrent learning procedure is necessary. Since most of the times the order of the gamma memory is small, we recommend adapting I..l with direct differentiation using the real time recurrent learning (RTRL) algorithm (Williams and Zipzer,1989), which when applied to the gamma memory yields, 145 146 Principe, de Vries, Kuo, and de Oliveira = - where by definition U: (t) I/m (t) cr' [net m(t)] LWmik U : (t) m k = -:-.d Iik (t) , and oJl i -:-.d Iik(t) = (l-Jlj)Uki(t-I) +Jl i u:- 1 (t-I) + [I i,k-l(t-I) -li,k(t-I)] oJl.I However, backpropagation through time (BPTT) (Werbos, 1990) can also be utilized, and will be more efficient when the temporal patterns are short. 3 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS The results for prediction that will be presented here utilized the focused gamma network as depicted in Figure 2a, while for the case of system identification, the block diagram is presented in Figure 2b. plant d(n) -4-----i~ let) joclise. gamvla wij,1l ,--::--------' a) Prediction b) System Identification ::.' ? : Ftg~~~1~Bio~k diag rarii;fJ;~ }h~~~;e riments Prediction of EEG We selected an EEG signal segment for our first comparison, because the EEG is notorious for its complexity. The problem was to predict the signal five steps ahead (feedforward prediction). Figure 3 shows a four second segment of sleep stage 2. The topology utilized was K gamma units, a one-hidden layer configuration with 5 units (nonlinear) and one linear output unit. The performance criterion is the mean square error signal. We utilized backpropagation to adapt the spatial weights (wijk), and parametrized Jl between 0 and I in steps of 0.1. Figure 3b displays the curves of minimal mean square error versus Jl. One can immediately see that the minimum mean square error is obtained for values of Jl different from one, therefore for the same memory order the gamma memory outperforms the tapped delay line as utilized in TDNN (which once again is equivalent to the gamma memory for Jl=l). For the case of the EEG it seems that the advantage of the gamma memory diminishes when the order of the memory is Modeling Applications with the Focused Gamma Net increased. However, the case of K=2, 11=0.6 produces equivalent performance of a TDNN with 4 memory taps (K=4). Since in experimental conditions there is always noise, experience has shown that the fewer number of adaptive parameters yield better signal fitting and simplifies training, so the focused gamma network is preferable. 0.1 K=2 ?0' ?0.6 =--:::: ...~1000 ?0.O:--:-::100~200~];;:;:-OO-----:-::.oo~'OO:::---600=--:;-:700:O--;... ~t o 0 I 0 0] 0'0~01!07 01 09 1 . P~edicti~~~;r~'(5;~~p;jwith the g~l7ii;;~fiit;;~;~f~~~n~n~JU / the EEG. The best MSE is obtained for 11 < 1. The dot shows the performance Notice also that the case of networks with first order context unit is obtained for K= I, so even if the time constant is chosen right (11=0.2 in this case), the performance can be improved if higher order memory kernels are utilized. It is also interesting to note that the optimal memory depth for the EEG prediction problem seems to be arollnd 4, as this is the value of KIll optimal. The information regarding the "optimal memory depth" is not obtainable with conventional models. Prediction of Mackey-Glass time series The Mackey-Glass system is a delay differential equation that becomes chaotic for some values of the parameters and delays (Mackey-Glass, 1977). The results that will be presented here regard the Mackey-Glass system with delay D=30. The time series was generated using a fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm. The table in Figure 4 shows the performance of TDNN and the focused gamma network with the same number of free parameters. The number of hidden units was kept the same in both networks, but TDNN utilized 5 input units, while the focused gamma network had 4 input units, and the adaptive memory depth parameter 11. The two systems were trained with the same number of samples, and training epochs. For TDNN this was the value that gave the best training when cross validation was utilized (the error in the test set increased after 100 epochs). For this example 11 was adapted on-line using RTRL, with the initial value set at 11= I, and with the same step size as for the spatial weights. As the Table shows, the MSE in the training for the gamma network is substantially lower than for TDNN. Figure 4 shows the behavior of 11 during the training epochs. It is interesting to see that the value of 11 changes during training and settles around a value of 0.92. In terms of learning curve (the MSE as a function of epoch) notice that there is an intersection of the learning curves for the TDNN and gamma network around epoch 42 when the value of 11=1, as we could expect from our analysis. The gamma network starts outperforming TDNN when the correct value of 11 is approached. 147 148 Principe, de Vries, Kuo, and de Oliveira This example shows that Jl can be learned on line, and that once again having the freedom to select the right value of memory depth helps in terms of prediction performance. For both these cases the required memory depth is relatively shallow, what we can expect since a chaotic time series has positive Lyapunov exponents, so the important information to predict the next point is in the short-term past. The same argument applies to the EEG, that can also be modeled as a chaotic time series (Lo and Principe, 1989). Cases where the long-term past is important for the task should enhance the advantage of the gamma memory. .\ \ test .. ,~~gam~ma TD1NN i train TDNN .":: , . ' 0, _" .. . " ? . . , ??.?? .... .... gamma ~ ... . :::: ch Gamma Net Architecture (l+K=4)-12-1 800 same number offree parameters. Notice that learning curves intersect around epoch 42, exactly when the m of the gamma was 1. The Figure 4b also shows that the gamma network is able to achieve a smaller error in this problem. Linear System Identification The last example is the identification of a third order linear lowpass elliptic transfer function with poles and zeros, given by H (z) = 1 - 0.873 1z-} - 0.87 3 1z-2 + z-3 1 - 2.8653z- 1 + 2.7505z- 2 - 0.8843z- 3 The cutoff frequency of this filter was selected such that the impulse response was long, effectively creating the need for a deep memory for good identification. For this case the focused gamma network was reduced to an ADALINE(Jl) (de Vries et aI, 1991), i.e. the feedforward mapper was a one layer linear network. The block diagram of Figure 2b was utilized to train the gamma network, and I(t) was chosen to be white gaussian noise. Figure 5 shows the MSE as a function of Jl for gamma memory orders up to k=3 . Notice that the information gained from the Figure 5 agrees with our speculations. The optimal value of the memory is K/Jl - 17 samples. For this value the third order ADALINE performs very poorly because there is not enough information in 3 delays to identify the transfer function with small error. The gamma memory, on the other hand can choose Jl small to encompass the req uired Modeling Applications with the Focused Gamma Net length, even for a third order memory. The price paid is reduced resolution, but the performance is still much better than the ADALINE of the same order (a factor of 10 improvement). 4 CONCLUSIONS In this paper we propose a specific topology of the gamma neural model, the focused gamma network. Several important neural networks become special cases of the focused gamma network. This allowed us to compare the advantages of having a more versatile memory structure than any of the networks under comparison . . :. 110 . 8 ::::;::~:~~:r:;:~::: :::::::::{ ';:-:.; i : o .4 i:!?? ?? ?0.2 ????.????.???.iii????? o. 2 ?Figure 1 .0 . 4 .:1Ii! ~ 6 . 0.8 1 : v~. J..l for H(z). The error achieved with 10 tlInes smaller than for the ADAL1NE. .s:. E { ~=0.18 IS The conclusion is that the gamma memory is computationally more powerful than fixed delays or first order context units. The major advantage is that the gamma model formalism allows the memory depth to be optimally set for the problem at hand. In the case of the chaotic time series, where the information to predict the future is concentrated in the neighborhood of the present sample, the gamma memory selected the most appropriate value, but its performance is similar to TDNN. However, in cases where the required depth of memory is much larger than the size of the tapped delay line, the gamma memory outperforms the fixed depth topologies with the same number of free parameters. The price paid for this optimal performance is insignificant. As a matter of fact, ~ can be adapted in real-time with RTRL (or BPTT), and since it is a single global parameter the complexity of the algorithm is still O(K) with RTRL. The other possible problem, instability, is easily controlled by requiring that the value of ~ be limited to O<~<2. The focused gamma memory is just one of the possible neural networks that can be implemented with the gamma model. The use of gamma memory planes in the hidden or output processing elements will enhance the computational power of the neural network. Notice that in these cases the short term mechanism is not only utilized to store information of the signal past, but will also be utilized to store the past values of the neural states. We can expect great savings in terms of network size with these 149 150 Principe, de Vries, Kuo, and de Oliveira other structures, mainly in cases where the information of the long-term past is important for the processing task. Acknowledgments This work has been partially supported by NSF grant DDM-8914084. References De Vries B. and Principe J.e. (1991). A Theory for Neural Nets with Time Delays. In Lippmann R., Moody J., and Touretzky D. (eds.), NIPS90 proceedings, San Mateo, CA, Morgan Kaufmann. DeVries B., Principe J., Oliveira P. (1991). Adaline with Adaptive Recursive Memory, Proc. IEEE Work. Neural Netsfor Sig. Proc., Princeton, 101-110, IEEE Press. De Vries and Principe, (1992). The gamma neural net - A new model for temporal processing. Accepted for publication, Neural Networks. DeVries B .(1991) . Temporal Processing with Neural Networks- The Development of the Gamma Model, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Florida. Elman, (1988). Finding structure in time. CRL technical report 8801, 1988. Jordan, (1986). Attractor dynamics and parallelism in a connectionist sequential machine. Proc. Cognitive Science 1986. Lang et. al. (1990). A time-delay neural network architecture for isolated word recognition. Neural Networks, vol.3 (1), 1990. Lo P.e. and Principe, J.e. (1989). Dimensionality analysis of EEG Segments: experimental considerations, Proc. llCNN 89, vol I, 693-698. Mackey D., Glass L. (1977). Oscillation and Chaos in Physiological Control Systems, Science 197,287 . Mozer M.C . (1989). A Focused Backpropagation Algorithm for Temporal Pattern Recognition. Complex Systems 3,349-381. Principe J.C., De Vries B., Oliveira, P.(1992). The Gamma Filter - A New Class of Adaptive IIR Filters with Restricted Feedback. Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing. Rumelhart D.E., Hinton G.E. and Williams R .J . (1986). Learning Internal Representations by Error Back-propagation. In Rumelhart D.E., McClelland J.L. (eds.) , Parallel Distributed Processing, vol. 1, ch. 8, MIT Press. Stornetta W.S ., Hogg T. and Huberman B.A. (1988). A Dynamical Approach to Temporal Pattern Processing . In Anderson D.Z. (ed.), Neural Information Processing Systems, 750-759 . Tank and Hopfield , (1987). Concentrating information in time: analog neural networks with applications to speech recognition problems. 1st into con! on neural networks, IEEE, 1987. Werbos P. (1990). Backpropagation through time:what it does and how to do it., Proc. IEEE, vol 78, no 10, 1550-1560. Widrow B., Hoff M. (1960). Adaptive Switching Circuits, IRE Wescon Con! Rep., pt 4. Williams J., and Zipzer D (1989). A learning algorithm for continually tunning fiully recurrent neural networks, Neural Computation, vol I no 2, pp 270-281, MIT Press.
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Learning Invariant Representations of Molecules for Atomization Energy Prediction Gr?goire Montavon1?, Katja Hansen2 , Siamac Fazli1 , Matthias Rupp3 , Franziska Biegler1 , Andreas Ziehe1 , Alexandre Tkatchenko2 , O. Anatole von Lilienfeld4 , Klaus-Robert M?ller1,5? 1. Machine Learning Group, TU Berlin 2. Fritz-Haber-Institut der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Berlin 3. Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, ETH Zurich 4. Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 5. Dept. of Brain and Cognitive Engineering, Korea University Abstract The accurate prediction of molecular energetics in chemical compound space is a crucial ingredient for rational compound design. The inherently graph-like, non-vectorial nature of molecular data gives rise to a unique and difficult machine learning problem. In this paper, we adopt a learning-from-scratch approach where quantum-mechanical molecular energies are predicted directly from the raw molecular geometry. The study suggests a benefit from setting flexible priors and enforcing invariance stochastically rather than structurally. Our results improve the state-of-the-art by a factor of almost three, bringing statistical methods one step closer to chemical accuracy. 1 Introduction The accurate prediction of molecular energetics in chemical compound space (CCS) is a crucial ingredient for compound design efforts in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. One of the major challenges consists of making quantitative estimates in CCS at moderate computational cost (milliseconds per compound or faster). Currently only high level quantum-chemistry calculations, which can take days per molecule depending on property and system, yield the desired ?chemical accuracy? of 1 kcal/mol required for computational molecular design. This problem has only recently captured the interest of the machine learning community (Baldi et al., 2011). The inherently graph-like, non-vectorial nature of molecular data gives rise to a unique and difficult machine learning problem. A central question is how to represent molecules in a way that makes prediction of molecular properties feasible and accurate (Von Lilienfeld and Tuckerman, 2006). This question has already been extensively discussed in the cheminformatics literature, and many so-called molecular descriptors exist (Todeschini and Consonni, 2009). Unfortunately, they often require a substantial amount of domain knowledge and engineering. Furthermore, they are not necessarily transferable across the whole chemical compound space. In this paper, we pursue a more direct approach initiated by Rupp et al. (2012) to the problem. We learn the mapping between the molecule and its atomization energy from scratch1 using the ?Coulomb matrix? as a low-level molecular descriptor (Rupp et al., 2012). As we will see later, an ? Electronic address: [email protected] Electronic address: [email protected] 1 This approach has already been applied in multiple domains such as natural language processing (Collobert et al., 2011) or speech recognition (Jaitly and Hinton, 2011). ? 1 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Figure 1: Different representations of the same molecule: (a) raw molecule with Cartesian coordinates and associated charges, (b) original (non-sorted) Coulomb matrix as computed by Equation 1, (c) eigenspectrum of the Coulomb matrix, (d) sorted Coulomb matrix, (e) set of randomly sorted Coulomb matrices. inherent problem of the Coulomb matrix descriptor is that it lacks invariance with respect to permutation of atom indices, thus, leading to an exponential blow-up of the problem?s dimensionality. We center the discussion around the two following questions: How to inject permutation invariance optimally into the machine learning model? What are the model characteristics that lead to the highest prediction accuracy? Our study extends the work of Rupp et al. (2012) by empirically comparing several methods for enforcing permutation invariance: (1) computing the sorted eigenspectrum of the Coulomb matrix, (2) sorting the rows and columns by their respective norm and (3), a new idea, randomly sorting rows and columns in order to associate a set of randomly sorted Coulomb matrices to each molecule, thus extending the dataset considerably. These three representations are then compared in the light of several models such as Gaussian kernel ridge regression or multilayer neural networks where the Gaussian prior is traded against more flexibility and the ability to learn the representation directly from the data. Related Work In atomic-scale physics and in material sciences, neural networks have been used to model the potential energy surface of single systems (e.g., the dynamics of a single molecule over time) since the early 1990s (Lorenz et al., 2004; Manzhos and Carrington, 2006; Behler, 2011). Recently, Gaussian processes were used for this as well (Bart?k et al., 2010). The major difference to the problem presented here is that previous work in modeling quantum mechanical energies looked mostly at the dynamics of one molecule, whereas we use data from different molecules simultaneously (?learning across chemical compound space?). Attempts in this direction have been rare (Balabin and Lomakina, 2009; Hautier et al., 2010; Balabin and Lomakina, 2011). 2 Representing Molecules Electronic structure methods based on quantum-mechanical first principles, only require a set of nuclear charges Zi and the corresponding Cartesian coordinates of the atomic positions in 3D space Ri as an input for the calculation of molecular energetics. Here we use exactly the same information as input for our machine learning algorithms. Specifically, for each molecule, we construct the socalled Coulomb matrix C, that contains information about Zi and Ri in a way that preserves many of the required properties of a good descriptor (Rupp et al., 2012): ( 0.5Zi2.4 ?i = j Cij = (1) Zi Zj ?i 6= j. |Ri ?Rj | The diagonal elements of the Coulomb matrix correspond to a polynomial fit of the potential energies of the free atoms, while the off-diagonal elements encode the Coulomb repulsion between all possible pairs of nuclei in the molecule. As such, the Coulomb matrix is invariant to translations and rotations of the molecule in 3D space; both transformations must keep the potential energy of the molecule constant by definition. Two problems with the Coulomb matrix representation that prevent it from being used out-of-thebox in a vector-space model are the following: (1) the dimension of the Coulomb matrix depends 2 on the number of atoms in the molecule and (2) the ordering of atoms in the Coulomb matrix is undefined, that is, many Coulomb matrices can be associated to the same molecule by just permuting rows and columns. The first problem can be mitigated by introducing ?invisible atoms? in the molecules, that have nuclear charge zero and do not interact with other atoms. These invisible atoms do not influence the physics of the molecule of interest and make the total number of atoms in the molecule sum to a constant d. In practice, this corresponds to padding the Coulomb matrix by zero-valued entries so that the Coulomb matrix has size d ? d, as it has been done by Rupp et al. (2012). Solving the second problem is more difficult and has no obvious physically plausible workaround. Three candidate representations are depicted in Figure 1 and presented below. 2.1 Eigenspectrum Representation The eigenspectrum representation (Rupp et al., 2012) is obtained by solving the eigenvalue problem Cv = ?v under the constraint ?i ? ?i+1 where ?i > 0. The spectrum (?1 , . . . , ?d ) is used as the representation. It is easy to see that this representation is invariant to permutation of atoms in the Coulomb matrix. On the other hand, the dimensionality of the eigenspectrum d is low compared to the initial 3d ? 6 degrees of freedom of most molecules. While this sharp dimensionality reduction may yield some useful built-in regularization, it may also introduce unrecoverable noise. 2.2 Sorted Coulomb Matrices Another solution to the ordering problem is to choose the permutation of atoms whose associated Coulomb matrix C satisfies ||Ci || ? ||Ci+1 || ? i where Ci denotes the ith row of the Coulomb matrix. Unlike the eigenspectrum representation, two different molecules have necessarily different associated sorted Coulomb matrices. 2.3 Random(-ly sorted) Coulomb Matrices A way to deal with the larger dimensionality subsequent to taking the whole Coulomb matrix instead of the eigenspectrum is to extend the dataset with Coulomb matrices that are randomly sorted. This is achieved by associating a conditional distribution over Coulomb matrices p(C|M ) to each molecule M . Let C(M ) define the set of matrices that are valid Coulomb matrices of the molecule M . The unnormalized probability distribution from which we would like to sample Coulomb matrices is defined as: X p? (C|M ) = 1C?C(M ) ? 1{||Ci ||+ni ?||Ci+1 ||+ni+1 ?i} ? pN (0,?I) (n) (2) n The first term constrains the sample to be a valid Coulomb matrix of M, the second term ensures the sorting constraint and the third term defines the randomness parameterized by the noise level ?. Sampling from this distribution can be achieved approximately using the following algorithm: Algorithm for generating a random Coulomb matrix 1. Take any Coulomb matrix C among the set of matrices that are valid Coulomb matrices of M and compute its row norm ||C|| = (||C1 ||, . . . , ||Cd ||). 2. Draw n ? N (0, ?I) and find the permutation P that sorts ||C|| + n, that is, find the permutation that satisfies permuteP (||C|| + n) = sort(||C|| + n). 3. Permute C row-wise and then column-wise with the same permutation, that is, Crandom = permutecolsP (permuterowsP (C)). The idea of dataset extension has already been used in the context of handwritten character recognition by, among others, LeCun et al. (1998), Ciresan et al. (2010) and in the context of support vector machines, by DeCoste and Sch?lkopf (2002). Random Coulomb matrices can be used at 3 Input (Coulomb matrix) Output (atomization energy) Figure 2: Two-dimensional PCA of the data with increasingly strong label contribution (from left to right). Molecules with low atomization energies are depicted in red and molecules with high atomization energies are depicted in blue. The plots suggest an interesting mix of global and local statistics with highly non-Gaussian distributions. training time in order to multiply the number of data points but also at prediction time: predicting the property of a molecule consists of predicting the properties for all Coulomb matrices among the distribution of Coulomb matrices associated to M and output the average of all these predictions y = EC|M [f (C)]. 3 Predicting Atomization Energies The atomization energy E quantifies the potential energy stored in all chemical bonds. As such, it is defined as the difference between the potential energy of a molecule and the sum of potential energies of its composing isolated atoms. The potential energy of a molecule is the solution to the electronic Schr?dinger equation H? = E?, where H is the Hamiltonian of the molecule and ? is the state of the system. Note that the Hamiltonian is uniquely defined by the Coulomb matrix up to rotation and translation symmetries. A dataset {(M1 , E1 ), . . . , (Mn , En )} is created by running a Schr?dinger equation solver on a small set of molecules. Figure 2 shows a two-dimensional PCA visualization of the dataset where input and output distributions exhibit an interesting mix of local and global statistics. Obtaining atomization energies from the Schr?dinger equation solver is computationally expensive and, as a consequence, only a fraction of the molecules in the chemical compound space can be labeled. The learning algorithm is then asked to generalize from these few data points to unseen molecules. In this section, we show how two algorithms of study, kernel ridge regression and the multilayer neural network, are applied to this problem. These algorithms are well-established nonlinear methods and are good candidates for handling the intrinsic nonlinearities of the problem. In kernel ridge regression, the measure of similarity is encoded in the kernel. On the other hand, in multilayer neural networks, the measure of similarity is learned essentially from data and implicitly given by the mapping onto increasingly many layers. In general, neural networks are more flexible and make less assumptions about the data. However, it comes at the cost of being more difficult to train and regularize. 3.1 Kernel Ridge Regression The most basic algorithm to solve the nonlinear regression problem at hand is kernel ridge regression (cf. Hastie et al., 2001). It uses a quadratic constraint on the norm of ?i . As is well known, the solution of the minimization problem X X 2 min E est (xi ) ? Eiref + ? ?i2 ? i i reads ? = (K + ?I)?1 E ref , where K is the empirical kernel and the input data xi is either the eigenspectrum of the Coulomb matrix or the vectorized sorted Coulomb matrix. Expanding the dataset with the randomly generated Coulomb matrices described in Section 2.3 yields a huge dataset that is difficult to handle with standard kernel ridge regression algorithms. Although approximations of the kernel can improve its scalability, random Coulomb matrices can be handled more easily by encoding permutations directly into the kernel. We redefine the kernel as 4 (a) (b) (c) 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 01 01 01 0 0 01 0 0 0 01 01 01 01 01 0 0 01 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 01 01 01 0 0 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 11 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 00 01 01 01 01 01 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (d) 0 01 01 01 01 01 0 01 01 0 0 0 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (e) E Figure 3: Data flow from the raw molecule to the predicted atomization energy E. The molecule (a) is converted to its randomly sorted Coulomb matrix representation (b). The Coulomb matrix is then converted into a suitable sensory input (c) that is fed to the neural network (d). The output of the neural network is then rescaled to the original energy unit (e). a sum over permutations: L X ? i , xj ) = 1 (K(xi , Pl (xj )) + K(Pl (xi ), xj )) K(x 2 (3) l=1 where Pl is the l-th permutation of atoms corresponding to the l-th realization of the random Coulomb matrix and L is the total number of permutations. This sum over multiple permutations has the effect of testing multiple plausible alignments of molecules. Note that the summation can be replaced by a ?max? operator in order to focus on correct alignments of molecules and ignore poor alignments. 3.2 Multilayer Neural Networks A main feature of multilayer neural networks is their ability to learn internal representations that potentially make models statistically and computationally more efficient. Unfortunately, the intrinsically non-convex nature of neural networks makes them hard to optimize and regularize in a principled manner. Often, a crucial factor for training neural networks successfully, is to start with a favorable initial conditioning of the learning problem, that is, a good sensory input representation and a proper weights initialization. Unlike images or speech data, an important amount of label-relevant information is contained within the elements of the Coulomb matrix and not only in their dependencies. For these reasons, taking the real quantities directly as input is likely to lead to a poorly conditioned optimization problem. Instead, we choose to break apart each dimension of the Coulomb matrix C by converting the representation into a three-dimensional tensor of essentially binary predicates as follows: C  C + ? i h C ? ? , tanh , tanh ,... x = . . . , tanh ? ? ? (4) The new representation x is fed as input to the neural network. Note that in the new representation, many elements are constant and can be pruned. In practice, by choosing an appropriate step ?, the dimensionality of the sensory input is kept to tractable levels. This binarization of the input space improves the conditioning of the learning problem and makes the model more flexible. As we will see in Section 5, learning from this flexible representation requires enough data in order to compensate for the lack of a strong prior and might lead to low performance if this condition is not met. The full data flow from the raw molecule to the predicted atomization energy is depicted in Figure 3. 4 Methodology Dataset As in Rupp et al. (2012), we select a subset of 7165 small molecules extracted from a huge database of nearly one billion small molecules collected by Blum and Reymond (2009). These molecules are composed of a maximum of 23 atoms, a maximum of 7 of them are heavy atoms. 5 Molecules are converted to a suitable Cartesian coordinates representation using universal forcefield method (Rapp? et al., 1992) as implemented in the software OpenBabel (Guha et al., 2006). The Coulomb matrices can then be computed from these Cartesian coordinates using Equation 1. Atomization energies are calculated for each molecule and are ranging from ?800 to ?2000 kcal/mol. As a result, we have a dataset of 7165 Coulomb matrices of size 23 ? 23 with their associated onedimensional labels2 . Random Coulomb matrices are generated with the noise parameter ? = 1 (see Equation 2). Model validation For each learning method we used stratified 5-fold cross validation with identical cross validation folds, where the stratification was done by grouping molecules into groups of five by their energies and then randomly assigning one molecule to each fold, as in Rupp et al. (2012). This sampling reduces the variance of the test error estimator. Each algorithm is optimized for mean squared error. To illustrate how the prediction accuracy changes when increasing the training sample size, each model was trained on 500 to 7000 data points which were sampled identically for the different methods. Choice of parameters for kernel ridge regression The kernel ridge regression model was trained using a Gaussian kernel (Kij = exp[?||xi ? xj ||2 /(2? 2 )]) where ? is the kernel width. No further scaling or normalization of the data was done, as the meaningfulness of the data in chemical compound space was to be preserved. A grid search with an inner cross validation was used to determine the hyperparameters for each of the five cross validation folds for each method, namely kernel width ? and regularization strength ?. Grid-searching for optimal hyperparameters can be easily parallelized. The regularization parameter was varied from 10?11 to 101 on a logarithmic scale and the kernel width was varied from 5 to 81 on a linear scale with a step size of 4. For the eigenspectrum representation the individual folds showed lower regularization parameters (?eig = 2.15 ? 10?10 ? 0.00) as compared to the sorted Coulomb representation (?sorted = 1.67 ? 10?7 ? 0.00). The optimal kernel width parameters are ?eig = 41 ? 6.07 and ?sorted = 77 ? 0.00. As indicated by the standard deviation 0.00, identical parameters are often chosen for all folds of cross-validation. Training one fold, for one particular set of parameters took approximately 10 seconds. When the algorithm is trained on random Coulomb matrices, we set the number of permutations involved in the kernel to L = 250 (see Equation 3) and grid-search hyperparameters over both the ?sum? and ?max? kernels. Obtained parameters are ?random = 0.0157 ? 0.0247 and ?random = 74 ? 4.38. Choice of parameters for the neural network We choose a binarization step ? = 1 (see Equation 4). As a result, the neural network takes approximately 1800 inputs. We use two hidden layers composed of 400 and 100 units with sigmoidal activation Initial weights ? functions, respectively. ? W0 and learning rates ? are chosen as W0 ? N (0, 1/ m) and ? = ?0 / m where m is the number of input units and ?0 is the global learning rate of the network set to ?0 = 0.01. p The error derivative is backpropagated from layer l to layer l ? 1 by multiplying it by ? = m/n where m and n are the number of input and output units of layer l. These choices for W0 , ? and ? ensure that the representations at each layer fall into the correct regime of the nonlinearity and that weights in each layer evolve at the correct speed. Inputs and outputs are scaled to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1. We use averaged stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) with minibatches of size 25 for a maximum of 250000 iterations and with ASGD coefficients set so that the neural network remembers approximately 10% of its training history. The training is performed on 90% of the training set and the rest is used for early stopping. Training the neural network takes between one hour and one day on a CPU depending on the sample complexity. When using the random Coulomb matrix representation, the prediction for a new molecule is averaged over 10 different realizations of its associated random Coulomb matrix. 5 Results Cross-validation results for each learning algorithm and representation are shown in Table 1. For the sake of completeness, we also include some baseline results such as the mean predictor (simply predicting the mean of labels in the training set), linear regression, k-nearest neighbors, mixed effects 2 The dataset is available at http://www.quantum-machine.org. 6 Learning algorithm Molecule representation Mean predictor None Eigenspectrum Sorted Coulomb Eigenspectrum Sorted Coulomb Eigenspectrum Sorted Coulomb Eigenspectrum Sorted Coulomb K-nearest neighbors Linear regression Mixed effects Gaussian support vector regression Gaussian kernel ridge regression Multilayer neural network Eigenspectrum Sorted Coulomb Random Coulomb Eigenspectrum Sorted Coulomb Random Coulomb MAE RMSE 179.02 ? 0.08 70.72 ? 2.12 71.54 ? 0.97 29.17 ? 0.35 20.72 ? 0.32 10.50 ? 0.48 8.5 ? 0.45 10.78 ? 0.58 8.06 ? 0.38 223.92 ? 0.32 92.49 ? 2.70 95.97 ? 1.45 38.01 ? 1.11 27.22 ? 0.84 20.38 ? 9.29 12.16 ? 0.95 19.47 ? 9.46 12.59 ? 2.17 11.39 ? 0.81 8.72 ? 0.40 7.79 ? 0.42 14.08 ? 0.29 11.82 ? 0.45 3.51 ? 0.13 16.01 ? 1.71 12.59 ? 1.35 11.40 ? 1.11 20.29 ? 0.73 16.01 ? 0.81 5.96 ? 0.48 Table 1: Prediction errors in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for several algorithms and types of representations. Linear regression and k-nearest neighbors are inaccurate compared to the more refined kernel methods and multilayer neural network. The multilayer neural network performance varies considerably depending on the type of representation but sets the lowest error in our study on the random Coulomb representation. models (Pinheiro and Bates, 2000; Fazli et al., 2011) and kernel support vector regression (Smola and Sch?lkopf, 2004). Linear regression and k-nearest neighbors are clearly off-the-mark compared to the other more sophisticated models such as mixed effects models, kernel methods and multilayer neural networks. While results for kernel algorithms are similar, they all differ considerably from those obtained with the multilayer neural network. In particular, we can observe that they are performing reasonably well with all types of representation while the multilayer neural network performance is highly dependent on the representation fed as input. More specifically, the multilayer neural network tends to perform better as the input representation gets richer (as the total amount of information in the input distribution increases), suggesting that the lack of a strong inbuilt prior in the neural network must be compensated by a large amount of data. The neural network performs best with random Coulomb matrices that are intrinsically the richest representation as a whole distribution over Coulomb matrices is associated to each molecule. A similar phenomenon can be observed from the learning curves in Figure 4. As the training data increases, the error for Gaussian kernel ridge regression decreases slowly while the neural network can take greater advantage from this additional data. 6 Conclusion Predicting molecular energies quickly and accurately across the chemical compound space (CCS) is an important problem as the quantum-mechanical calculations are typically taking days and do not scale well to more complex systems. Supervised statistical learning is a natural candidate for solving this problem as it encourages computational units to focus on solving the problem of interest rather than solving the more general Schr?dinger equation. In this paper, we have developed further the learning-from-scratch approach initiated by Rupp et al. (2012) and provided a deeper understanding of some of the ingredients for learning a successful mapping between raw molecular geometries and atomization energies. Our results suggest the importance of having flexible priors (in our case, a multilayer network) and lots of data (generated artificially by exploiting symmetries of the Coulomb matrix). Our work improves the state-of-theart on this dataset by a factor of almost three. From a reference MAE of 9.9 kcal/mol (Rupp et al., 7 Gaussian kernel ridge regression b multilayer neural network 40 25 b mol b b  kcal  b 30 b eigenspectrum sorted Coulomb random Coulomb b 35 mean absolute error mean absolute error mol  kcal  40 b b 20 b b b b b 15 b b b b b 10 b b b b b bb b b b b b b b b bb bb b b b bb b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b 5 0 eigenspectrum sorted Coulomb random Coulomb b 35 b 30 b b b b 25 b 20 b b b b b b b b b 15 b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b 10 b b 5 b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b 0 0 2000 4000 6000 # samples 8000 0 2000 4000 6000 # samples 8000 Figure 4: Learning curves for Gaussian kernel ridge regression and the multilayer neural network. Results for kernel ridge regression are more invariant to the representation and to the number of samples than for the multilayer neural network. The gray area at the bottom of the plot indicates the level at which the prediction is considered to be ?chemically accurate?. 2012), we went down to a MAE of 3.51 kcal/mol, which is considerably closer to the 1 kcal/mol required for chemical accuracy. Many open problems remain that makes quantum chemistry an attractive challenge for Machine Learning: (1) Are there fundamental modeling limits of the statistical learning approach for quantum chemistry applications or is it rather a matter of producing more training data? (2) The training data can be considered noise free. Thus, are there better ML models for the noise free case while regularizing away the intrinsic problem complexity to keep the ML model small? (3) Can better representations be devised with inbuilt invariance properties (e.g. Tangent Distance, Simard et al., 1996), harvesting physical prior knowledge? (4) How can we extract physics insights on quantum mechanics from the trained nonlinear ML prediction models? Acknowledgments This work is supported by the World Class University Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology, under Grant R31-10008, and the FP7 program of the European Community (Marie Curie IEF 273039). This research used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility at Argonne National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DEAC02-06CH11357. This research is supported, in part, by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors also thank M?rton Dan?czy for preliminary work and useful discussions. References Roman M. Balabin and Ekaterina I. Lomakina. Neural network approach to quantum-chemistry data: Accurate prediction of density functional theory energies. Journal of Chemical Physics, 131(7):074104, 2009. Roman M. Balabin and Ekaterina I. Lomakina. 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Angular Quantization-based Binary Codes for Fast Similarity Search Yunchao Gong? , Sanjiv Kumar? , Vishal Verma? , Svetlana Lazebnik? ? Google Research, New York, NY 10011, USA ? Computer Science Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA ? Computer Science Department, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801, USA {yunchao,verma}@cs.unc.edu, [email protected], [email protected] Abstract This paper focuses on the problem of learning binary codes for efficient retrieval of high-dimensional non-negative data that arises in vision and text applications where counts or frequencies are used as features. The similarity of such feature vectors is commonly measured using the cosine of the angle between them. In this work, we introduce a novel angular quantization-based binary coding (AQBC) technique for such data and analyze its properties. In its most basic form, AQBC works by mapping each non-negative feature vector onto the vertex of the binary hypercube with which it has the smallest angle. Even though the number of vertices (quantization landmarks) in this scheme grows exponentially with data dimensionality d, we propose a method for mapping feature vectors to their smallest-angle binary vertices that scales as O(d log d). Further, we propose a method for learning a linear transformation of the data to minimize the quantization error, and show that it results in improved binary codes. Experiments on image and text datasets show that the proposed AQBC method outperforms the state of the art. 1 Introduction Retrieving relevant content from massive databases containing high-dimensional data is becoming common in many applications involving images, videos, documents, etc. Two main bottlenecks in building an efficient retrieval system for such data are the need to store the huge database and the slow speed of retrieval. Mapping the original high-dimensional data to similarity-preserving binary codes provides an attractive solution to both of these problems [21, 23]. Several powerful techniques have been proposed recently to learn binary codes for large-scale nearest neighbor search and retrieval. These methods can be supervised [2, 11, 16], semi-supervised [10, 24] and unsupervised [7, 8, 9, 12, 15, 18, 20, 26], and can be applied to any type of vector data. In this work, we investigate whether it is possible to achieve an improved binary embedding if the data vectors are known to contain only non-negative elements. In many vision and text-related applications, it is common to represent data as a Bag of Words (BoW), or a vector of counts or frequencies, which contains only non-negative entries. Furthermore, cosine of angle between vectors is typically used as a similarity measure for such data. Unfortunately, not much attention has been paid in the past to exploiting this special yet widely used data type. A popular binary coding method for cosine similarity is based on Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) [4], but it does not take advantage of the non-negative nature of histogram data. As we will show in the experiments, the accuracy of LSH is limited for most real-world data. Min-wise Hashing is another popular method which is designed for non-negative data [3, 13, 14, 22]. However, it is appropriate only for Jaccard distance and also it does not result in binary codes. Special 1 clustering algorithms have been developed for data sampled on the unit hypersphere, but they also do not lead to binary codes [1]. To the best of our knowledge, this paper describes the first work that specifically learns binary codes for non-negative data with cosine similarity. We propose a novel angular quantization technique to learn binary codes from non-negative data, where the angle between two vectors is used as a similarity measure. Without loss of generality such data can be assumed to live in the positive orthant of a unit hypersphere. The proposed technique works by quantizing each data point to the vertex of the binary hypercube with which it has the smallest angle. The number of these quantization centers or landmarks is exponential in the dimensionality of the data, yielding a low-distortion quantization of a point. Note that it would be computationally infeasible to perform traditional nearest-neighbor quantization as in [1] with such a large number of centers. Moreover, even at run time, finding the nearest center for a given point would be prohibitively expensive. Instead, we present a very efficient method to find the nearest landmark for a point, i.e., the vertex of the binary hypercube with which it has the smallest angle. Since the basic form of our quantization method does not take data distribution into account, we further propose a learning algorithm that linearly transforms the data before quantization to reduce the angular distortion. We show experimentally that it significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art binary coding methods on both visual and textual data. 2 Angular Quantization-based Binary Codes Our goal is to find a quantization scheme that maximally preserves the cosine similarity (angle) between vectors in the positive orthant of the unit hypersphere. This section introduces the proposed angular quantization technique that directly yields binary codes of non-negative data. We first propose a simplified data-independent algorithm which does not involve any learning, and then present a method to adapt the quantization scheme to the input data to learn robust codes. 2.1 Data-independent Binary Codes Suppose we are given a database X containing n d-dimensional points such that X = {xi }ni=1 , where xi ? Rd . We first address the problem of computing a d-bit binary code of an input vector xi . A c-bit code for c < d will be described later in Sec. 2.2. For angle-preserving quantization, we define a set of quantization centers or landmarks by projecting the vertices of the binary hypercube {0, 1}d onto the unit hypersphere. This construction results in 2d ? 1 landmark points for d-dimensional data.1 An illustration of the proposed quantization model is given in Fig. 1. Given a point x on the hypersphere, one first finds its nearest2 landmark v i , and the binary encoding for xi is simply given by the binary vertex bi corresponding to v i .3 One of the main characteristics of the proposed model is that the number of landmarks grows exponentially with d, and for many practical applications d can easily be in thousands or even more. On the one hand, having a huge number of landmarks is preferred as it can provide a fine-grained, low-distortion quantization of the input data, but on the other hand, it poses the formidable computational challenge of efficiently finding the nearest landmark (and hence the binary encoding) for an arbitrary input point. Note that performing brute-force nearest-neighbor search might even be slower than nearest-neighbor retrieval from the original database! To obtain an efficient solution, we take advantage of the special structure of our set of landmarks, which are given by the projections of binary vectors onto the unit hypercube. The nearest landmark of a point x, or the binary vertex having the smallest angle with x, is given by T ? = arg max b x b b kbk2 s. t. b ? {0, 1}d . (1) This is an integer programming problem but its global maximum can be found very efficiently as we show in the lemma below. The corresponding algorithm is presented in Algorithm 1. 1 Note that the vertex with all 0?s is excluded as its norm is 0, which is not permissible in eq. (1). In terms of angle or Euclidean distance, which are equivalent for unit-norm data. 3 Since in terms of angle from a point, both bi and v i are equivalent, we will use the term landmark for either bi or v i depending on the context. 2 2 1 cos(b1,b2) 0.8 0.6 0.4 lower bound (r=1) upper bound (r=1) lower bound (r=3) upper bound (r=3) lower bound (r=5) upper bound (r=5) 0.2 0 0 10 (a) Quantization model in 3D. 1 2 10 10 m (log scale) 3 10 (b) Cosine of angle between binary vertices. Figure 1: (a) An illustration of our quantization model in 3D. Here bi is a vertex of the unit cube and v i is its projection on the unit sphere. Points v i are used as the landmarks for quantization. To find the binary code of a given data point x, we first find its nearest landmark point v i on the sphere, and the correponding bi gives its binary code (v 4 and b4 in this case). (b) Bound on cosine of angle between a binary vertex b1 with Hamming weight m, and another vertex b2 at a Hamming distance r from b1 . See Lemma 2 for details. Algorithm 1: Finding the nearest binary landmark for a point on the unit hypersphere. ? binary vector having the smallest angle with x. Input: point x on the unit hypersphere. Output: b, 1. Sort the entries of x in descending order as x(1) , . . . , x(d) . 2. for k = 1, . . . , d 3. if x(k) = 0 break. 4. Form binary vector bk whose elements are positions in x, 0 otherwise. P1 for the k largest ? k k. 5. Compute ?(x, k) = (xT bk )/kbk k2 = x / (j) j=1 6. end for 7. Return bk corresponding to m = arg maxk ?(x, k). Lemma 1 The globally optimal solution of the integer programming problem in eq. (1) can be computed in O(d log d) time. Further, for a sparse vector with s non-zero entries, it can be computed in O(s log s) time. Proof: Since b?is a d-dimensional binary vector, its norm kbk2 can have at most d different values, ? i.e., kbk2 ? { 1, . . . , d}. We can ? separately consider the optimal solution of eq. (1) for each value of the norm. Given kbk2 = k (i.e., b has k ones), eq. (1) is maximized by setting to one the entries of b corresponding to the largest k entries of x. Since kbk2 can take on d distinct values, ? for which the we need to evaluate eq. (1) at most d times, and find the k and the corresponding b objective function is maximized (see Algorithm 1 for a detailed description of the algorithm). To find the largest k entries of x for k = 1, . . . , d, we need to sort all the entries of x, which takes O(d log d) time, and checking the solutions for all k is linear in d. Further, if the vector x is sparse with only s non-zero elements, it is obvious that the maximum of eq. (1) is achieved when k varies from 1 to s. Hence, one needs to sort only the non-zero entries of x, which takes O(s log s) time and checking all possible solutions is linear in s.  Now we study the properties of the proposed quantization model. The following lemma helps to characterize the angular resolution of the quantization landmarks. Lemma 2 Suppose b is an arbitrary binary vector with Hamming weight kbk1 = m, where k ? k1 is the L1 norm. Then for all binary vectors b0 that lie radius r from b, the cosine of i hq q at a Hamming the angle between b and b0 is bounded by m?r m , m m+r . Proof: Since kbk1 = m, there are exactly m ones in b and the rest are zeros, and b0 has exactly r bits different from b. To find the lower bound on the cosine of the angle between b and b0 , we T 0 b want to find a b0 such that ? b ? is maximized. It is easy to see that this will happen when 0 kbk1 kb k1 b0 has exactly m ? r ones in common positions with b and the remaining entries are zero, i.e., q 0 T 0 m?r kb k1 = m ? r and b b = m ? r. This gives the lower bound of m . Similarly, the upper 3 bound can be obtained when b0 has all ones at the same locations q as b, and additional r ones, i.e., 0 T 0 m kb k1 = m + r and b b = m. This yields the upper bound of m+r .  We can understand this result as follows. The Hamming weight m of each binary vertex corresponds to its position in space. When m is low, the point is closer to the boundary of the positive orthant and when m is high, it is closer to the center. The above lemma implies that for landmark points on the boundary, the Voronoi cells are relatively coarse, and cells become progressively denser as one moves towards the center. Thus the proposed set of landmarks non-uniformly tessellates the surface of the positive orthant of the hypersphere. We show the lower and upper bounds on angle for various m and r in Fig. 1 (b). It is clear that for relatively large m, the angle between different landmarks is very small, thus providing dense quantization even for large r. To get good performance, the distribution of the data should be such that a majority of the points fall closer to landmarks with higher m. The Algorithm 1 constitutes the core of our proposed angular quantization method, but it has several limitations: (i) it is data-independent, and thus cannot adapt to the data distribution to control the quantization error; (ii) it cannot control m which, based on our analysis, is critical for low quantization error; (iii) it can only produce a d-bit code for d-dimensional data, and thus cannot generate shorter codes. In the following section, we present a learning algorithm to address the above issues. 2.2 Learning Data-dependent Binary Codes We start by addressing the first issue of how to adapt the method to the given data to minimize the quantization error. Similarly to the Iterative Quantization (ITQ) method of Gong and Lazebnik [7], we would like to align the data to a pre-defined set of quantization landmarks using a rotation, because rotating the data does not change the angles ? and, therefore, the similarities ? between the data points. Later in this section, we will present an objective function and an optimization algorithm to accomplish this goal, but first, by way of motivation, we would like to illustrate how applying even a random rotation to a typical frequency/count vector can affect the Hamming weight m of its angular binary code. Zipf?s law or power law is commonly used for modeling frequency/count data in many real-world applications [17, 28]. Suppose, for a data vector x, the sorted entries x(1) , . . . , x(d) follow Zipf?s law, i.e., x(k) ? 1/k s , where k is the index of the entries sorted in descending order, and s is the power parameter that controls how quickly the entries decay. The effective m for x depends directly on the power s: the larger s is, the faster the entries of x decay, and the smaller m becomes. More germanely, for a fixed s, applying a random rotation R to x makes the distribution of the entries of the resulting vector RT x more uniform and raises the effective m. In Fig. 2 (a), we plot the sorted entries of x generated from Zipf?s law with s = 0.8. Based on Algorithm 1, we compute Pk x the scaled cumulative sums ?(x, k) = j=1 ?(j) , which are shown in Fig. 2 (b). Here the optimal k m = arg maxk ?(x, k) is relatively low (m = 2). In Fig. 2 (c), we randomly rotate the data and show the sorted values of RT x, which become more uniform. Finally, in Fig. 2 (d), we show ?(RT x, k). The Hamming weight m after this random rotation becomes much higher (m = 25). This effect is typical: the average of m over 1000 random rotations for this example is 27.36. Thus, even randomly rotating the data tends to lead to finer Voronoi cells and reduced quantization error. Next, it is natural to ask whether we can optimize the rotation of the data to increase the cosine similarities between data points and their corresponding binary landmarks. We seek a d ? d orthogonal transformation R such that the sum of cosine similarities of each transformed data point RT xi and its corresponding binary landmark bi is maximized.4 Let B ? {0, 1}d?n denote a matrix whose columns are given by the bi . Then the objective function for our optimization problem is given by n X bTi RT xi B,R kb k i 2 i=1 Q(B, R) = arg max s. t. bi ? {0, 1}d , RT R = I d , (2) where I d denotes the d ? d identity matrix. 4 Note that after rotation, RT xi may contain negative values but this does not affect the quantization since the binarization technique described in Algorithm 1 effectively suppresses the negative values to 0. 4 1.1 0.7 0.5 8 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 9 2 0.9 0.6 ?(x,k) data value x(k) 0.8 3 m=2 0.6 7 1 6 ?(RTx,k) 1 after rotation (RTx)(k) 1 0.9 0 ?1 m=25 4 3 2 ?2 1 0.1 0 0 5 20 40 60 80 100 0.5 0 20 sorted index (k) 40 60 80 ?3 0 100 20 sorted index (k) (a) 40 60 80 100 0 0 20 sorted index (k) (b) 40 60 80 100 sorted index (k) (c) (d) Figure 2: Effect of rotation on Hamming weight m of the landmark corresponding to a particular vector. (a) Sorted vector elements x(k) following Zipf?s law with s = 0.8; (b) Scaled cumulative sum ?(x, k); (c) Sorted vector elements after random rotation; (d) Scaled cumulative sum ?(RT x, k) for the rotated data. See text for discussion. The above objective function still yields a d-bit binary code for d-dimensional data, while in many real-world applications, a low-dimensional binary code may be preferable. To generate a c-bit code where c < d, we can learn a d ? c projection matrix R with orthogonal columns by optimizing the following modified objective function: n X bTi R T xi B,R kbi k2 kRT xi k2 i=1 s. t. bi ? {0, 1}c , RT R = I c . Q(B, R) = arg max (3) Note that to minimize the angle after a low-dimensional projection (as opposed to a rotation), the denominator of the objective function contains kRT xi k2 since after projection kRT xi k2 6= 1. However, adding this new term to the denominator makes the optimization problem hard to solve. We propose to relax it by optimizing the linear correlation instead of the angle: n X bTi R T xi B,R kb k i 2 i=1 Q(B, R) = arg max s. t. bi ? {0, 1}c , RT R = I c . (4) This is similar to eq. (2) but the geometric interpretation is slightly different: we are now looking for a projection matrix R to map the d-dimensional data to a lower-dimensional space such that after the mapping, the data has high linear correlation with a set of landmark points lying on the lower-dimensional hypersphere. Section 3 will demonstrate that this relaxation works quite well in practice. 2.3 Optimization The objective function in (4) can be written more compactly in a matrix form: e R) = arg max Tr(B e T RT X) Q(B, s. t. RT R = I c , (5) e B,R e is the c ? n matrix with columns given by bi /kbi k2 , and X is where Tr(?) is the trace operator, B e and X jointly. To the d ? n matrix with columns given by xi . This objective is nonconvex in B obtain a local maximum, we use a simple alternating optimization procedure as follows. e For a fixed R, eq. (5) becomes separable in xi , and we can solve for each bi (1) Fix R, update B. separately. Here, the individual sub-problem for each xi can be written as bT b?i = arg max i (RT xi ). bi kbi k2 (6) Thus, given a point y i = RT xi in c-dimensional space, we want to find the vertex bi on the cdimensional hypercube having the smallest angle with y i . To do this, we use Algorithm 1 to find bi for each y i , and then normalize each bi back to the unit hypersphere: e bi = bi /kbi k2 . This yields e e each column of B. Note that the B found in this way is the global optimum for this subproblem. e update R. When B e is fixed, we want to find (2) Fix B, ? = arg max Tr(B e T RT X) = arg max Tr(RT X B eT) R R R 5 s. t. RT R = I c . (7) This is a well-known problem and its global optimum can be obtained by polar decomposition [5]. e T as X B e T = U SV T , let U c be the first c Namely, we take the SVD of the d ? c matrix X B singular vectors of U , and finally obtain R = U c V T . The above formulation involves solving two sub-problems in an alternating fashion. The first subproblem is an integer program, and the second one has non-convex orthogonal constraints. However, in each iteration the global optimum can be obtained for each sub-problem as discussed above. So, each step of the alternating method is guaranteed to increase the objective function. Since the objective function is bounded from above, it is guaranteed to converge. In practice, one needs only a few iterations (less than five) for the method to converge. The optimization procedure is initialized by first generating a random binary matrix by making each element 0 or 1 with probability 21 , and then normalizing each column to unit norm. Note that the optimization is also computationally efficient. The first subproblem takes O(nc log c) time while the second one takes O(dc2 ). This is linear in data dimension d, which enables us to handle very high-dimensional feature vectors. 2.4 Computation of Cosine Similarity between Binary Codes Most existing similarity-preserving binary coding methods measure the similarity between pairs of binary vectors using the Hamming distance, which is extremely efficient to compute by bitwise XOR followed by bit count (popcount). By contrast, the appropriate similarity measure for our T 0 b approach is the cosine of the angle ? between two binary vectors b and b0 : cos(?) = kbkb2 kb 0 k . In 2 this formulation, bT b0 can be obtained by bitwise AND followed by popcount, and kbk2 and kb0 k2 can be obtained by popcount and lookup table to find the square root. Of course, if b is the query vector that needs to be compared to every database vector b0 , then one can ignore kbk2 . Therefore, even though the cosine similarity is marginally slower than Hamming distance, it is still very fast compared to computing similarity of the original data vectors. 3 Experiments To test the effectiveness of the proposed Angular Quantization-based Binary Codes (AQBC) method, we have conducted experiments on two image datasets and one text dataset. The first image dataset is SUN, which contains 142,169 natural scene images [27]. Each image is represented by a 1000dimensional bag of visual words (BoW) feature vector computed on top of dense SIFT descriptors. The BoW vectors are power-normalized by taking the square root of each entry, which has been shown to improve performance for recognition tasks [19]. The second dataset contains 122,530 images from ImageNet [6], each represented by a 5000-dimensional vector of locality-constrained linear coding (LLC) features [25], which are improved versions of BoW features. Dense SIFT is also used as the local descriptor in this case. The third dataset is 20 Newsgroups,5 which contains 18,846 text documents and 26,214 words. Tf-idf weighting is used for each text document BoW vector. The feature vectors for all three datasets are sparse, non-negative, and normalized to unit L2 norm. Due to this, Euclidean distance directly corresponds to the cosine similarity as dist2 = 2 ? 2 sim. Therefore, in the following, we will talk about similarity and distance interchangeably. To perform evaluation on each dataset, we randomly sample and fix 2000 points as queries, and use the remaining points as the ?database? against which the similarity searches are run. For each query, we define the ground truth neighbors as all the points within the radius determined by the average distance to the 50th nearest neighbor in the dataset, and plot precision-recall curves of database points ordered by decreasing similarity of their binary codes with the query. This methodology is similar to that of other recent works [7, 20, 26]. Since our AQBC method is unsupervised, we compare with several state-of-the-art unsupervised binary coding methods: Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) [4], Spectral Hashing [26], Iterative Quantization (ITQ) [7], Shift-invariant Kernel LSH (SKLSH) [20], and Spherical Hashing (SPH) [9]. Although these methods are designed to work with the Euclidean distance, they can be directly applied here since all the vectors have unit norm. We use the authors? publicly available implementations and suggested parameters for all the experiments. Results on SUN and ImageNet. The precision-recall curves for the SUN dataset are shown in Fig. 3. For all the code lengths (from 64 to 1000 bits), our method (AQBC) performs better than other state-of-the-art methods. For a relatively large number of bits, SKLSH works much better than other 5 http://people.csail.mit.edu/jrennie/20Newsgroups 6 1 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0.8 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0.8 0.8 Precision 0.6 Precision 0.6 Precision 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0 0 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC AQBC naive 0.2 0.4 Recall 0.6 0.8 0 0 1 0.2 0.4 Recall (a) 64 bits. 0.6 0.8 1 Recall (b) 256 bits. (c) 1000 bits. Figure 3: Precision-recall curves for different methods on the SUN dataset. 1 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0.8 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0.8 0.8 Precision 0.6 Precision 0.6 Precision 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall (a) 64 bits. 0.8 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall (b) 256 bits. 0.8 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Recall (c) 1024 bits. Figure 4: Precision-recall curves for different methods on the ImageNet120K dataset. methods, while still being worse than ours. It is interesting to verify how much we gain by using the learned data-dependent quantization instead of the data-independent naive version (Sec. 2.1). Since the naive version can only learn a d-bit code (1000 bits in this case), its performance (AQBC naive) is shown only in Fig. 3 (c). The performance is much worse than that of the learned codes, which clearly shows that adapting quantization to the data distribution is important in practice. Fig. 4 shows results on ImageNet. On this dataset, the strongest competing method is ITQ. For a relatively low number of bits (e.g., 64), AQBC and ITQ are comparable, but AQBC has a more clear advantage as the number of bits increases. This is because for fewer bits, the Hamming weight (m) of the binary codes tends to be small resulting in larger distortion error as discussed in Sec. 2.1. We also found the SPH [9] method works well for relatively dense data, while it does not work very well for high-dimensional sparse data. Results on 20 Newsgroups. The results on the text features (Fig. 5) are consistent with those on the image features. Because the text features are the sparsest and have the highest dimensionality, we would like to verify whether learning the projection R helps in choosing landmarks with larger m as conjectured in Sec. 2.2. The average empirical distribution over sorted vector elements for this data is shown in Fig. 6 (a) and the scaled cumulative sum in Fig. 6 (b). It is clear that vector elements have a rapidly decaying distribution, and the quantization leads to codes with low m implying higher quantization error. Fig. 6 (c) shows the distribution of entries of vector RT x, which decays more slowly than the original distribution in Fig. 6 (a). Fig. 6 (d) shows the scaled cumulative sum for the projected vectors, indicating a much higher m. Timing. Table 1 compares the binary code generation time and retrieval speed for different methods. All results are obtained on a workstation with 64GB RAM and 4-core 3.4GHz CPU. Our method involves linear projection and quantization using Algorithm 1, while ITQ and LSH only involve linear projections and thresholding. SPH involves Euclidean distance computation and thresholding. SH and SKLSH involve linear projection, nonlinear mapping, and thresholding. The results show that the quantization step (Algorithm 1) of our method is fast, adding very little to the coding time. The coding speed of our method is comparable to that of LSH, ITQ, SPH, and SKLSH. As shown 7 1 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0.8 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0.8 0.8 Precision 0.6 Precision 0.6 Precision 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 ITQ LSH SKLSH SH SPH AQBC 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 Recall (a) 64 bits. 0.6 0.8 1 Recall (b) 256 bits. (c) 1024 bits. 1 0.3 0.9 0.5 m=37 0.7 0.2 0.15 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.45 0.4 0.04 ?(RTx,k) rotated data (RTx)(k) 0.8 0.25 0.02 0 400 600 800 1000 0.2 0 sorted index (k) 0.25 0.1 200 400 600 800 ?0.04 0 1000 200 400 600 800 1000 sorted index (k) sorted index (k) (a) 0.3 0.2 0.3 200 m=304 0.35 0.15 ?0.02 0.05 0 0 0.55 0.08 0.06 ?(x,k) data value (x(k)) Figure 5: Precision-recall curves for different methods on the 20 Newsgroups dataset. 0.35 (b) (c) 0.05 0 200 400 600 800 1000 sorted index (k) (d) Figure 6: Effect of projection on Hamming weight m for 20 Newsgroups data. (a) Distribution of sorted vector entries, (b) scaled cumulative function, (c) distribution over vector elements after learned projection, (d) scaled cumulative function for the projected data. For (a, b) we show only top 1000 entries for better visualization. For (c, d), we project the data to 1000 dimensions. code size 64 bits 512 bits SH 2.20 40.38 LSH 0.14 3.66 (a) Code generation time ITQ SKLSH SPH AQBC 0.14 0.33 0.21 0.14 + 0.09 = 0.23 3.66 5.81 3.94 3.66 + 0.55 = 4.21 (b) Retrieval time Hamming Cosine 2.4 3.4 15.8 20.4 Table 1: Timing results. (a) Average binary code generation time per query (milliseconds) on 5000dimensional LLC features. For the proposed AQBC method, the first number is projection time and the second is quantization time. (b) Average time per query, i.e., exhaustive similarity computation against the 120K ImageNet images. Computation of Euclidean distance on this dataset takes 11580 ms. in Table 1(b), computation of cosine similarity is slightly slower than that of Hamming distance, but both are orders of magnitude faster than Euclidean distance. 4 Discussion In this work, we have introduced a novel method for generating binary codes for non-negative frequency/count data. Retrieval results on high-dimensional image and text datasets have demonstrated that the proposed codes accurately approximate neighbors in the original feature space according to cosine similarity. Note, however, that our experiments have not focused on evaluating the semantic accuracy of the retrieved neighbors (i.e., whether these neighbors tend to belong to the same high-level category as the query). To improve the semantic precision of retrieval, our earlier ITQ method [7] could take advantage of a supervised linear projection learned from labeled data with the help of canonical correlation analysis. For the current AQBC method, it is still not clear how to incorporate supervised label information into learning of the linear projection. We have performed some preliminary evaluations of semantic precision using unsupervised AQBC, and we have found it to work very well for retrieving semantic neighbors for extremely high-dimensional sparse data (like the 20 Newsgroups dataset), while ITQ currently works better for lower-dimensional, denser data. In the future, we plan to investigate how to improve the semantic precision of AQBC using either unsupervised or supervised learning. Additional resources and code are available at http://www.unc.edu/? yunchao/aqbc.htm Acknowledgments. We thank Henry A. Rowley and Ruiqi Guo for helpful discussions, and the reviewers for helpful suggestions. Gong and Lazebnik were supported in part by NSF grants IIS 0916829 and IIS 1228082, and the DARPA Computer Science Study Group (D12AP00305). 8 References [1] A. Banerjee, I. S. Dhillon, J. Ghosh, and S. Sra. Clustering on the unit hypersphere using von Mises-Fisher distributions. JMLR, 2005. [2] A. Bergamo, L. Torresani, and A. Fitzgibbon. Picodes: Learning a compact code for novelcategory recognition. NIPS, 2011. [3] A. Broder. On the resemblance and containment of documents. Compression and Complexity of Sequences, 1997. [4] M. S. Charikar. Similarity estimation techniques from rounding algorithms. STOC, 2002. [5] X. Chen, B. Bai, Y. Qi, Q. Lin, and J. Carbonell. Sparse latent semantic analysis. SDM, 2011. [6] J. Deng, W. Dong, R. Socher, L. Li, K. Li, and L. Fei-Fei. ImageNet: A large-scale hierarchical image database. CVPR, 2009. [7] Y. Gong and S. Lazebnik. Iterative quantization: A Procrustean approach to learning binary codes. CVPR, 2011. [8] J. He, R. Radhakrishnan, S.-F. Chang, and C. Bauer. Compact hashing with joint optimization of search accuracy and time. CVPR, 2011. [9] J.-P. Heo, Y. Lee, J. He, S.-F. Chang, and S.-E. Yoon. Spherical hashing. CVPR, 2012. [10] P. Jain, B. Kulis, and K. Grauman. Fast image search for learned metrics. CVPR, 2008. [11] B. Kulis and T. Darrell. Learning to hash with binary reconstructive embeddings. NIPS, 2009. [12] B. Kulis and K. Grauman. Kernelized locality-sensitive hashing for scalable image search. In ICCV, 2009. [13] P. Li and C. Konig. Theory and applications of b-bit minwise hashing. Communications of the ACM, 2011. [14] P. Li, A. Shrivastava, J. Moore, and C. Konig. Hashing algorithms for large-scale learning. NIPS, 2011. [15] W. Liu, S. Kumar, and S.-F. Chang. Hashing with graphs. ICML, 2011. [16] W. Liu, J. Wang, R. Ji, Y.-G. Jiang, and S.-F. Chang. Supervised hashing with kernels. CVPR, 2012. [17] C. D. Manning and H. Sch?utze. Foundations of statistical natural language processing. MIT Press, 1999. [18] M. Norouzi and D. J. Fleet. Minimal loss hashing for compact binary codes. ICML, 2011. [19] F. Perronnin, J. Sanchez, , and Y. Liu. Large-scale image categorization with explicit data embedding. CVPR, 2010. [20] M. Raginsky and S. Lazebnik. Locality sensitive binary codes from sift-invariant kernels. NIPS, 2009. [21] R. Salakhutdinov and G. Hinton. Semantic hashing. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2009. [22] A. Shrivastava and P. Li. Fast near neighbor search in high-dimensional binary data. ECML, 2012. [23] A. Torralba, R. Fergus, and Y. Weiss. Small codes and large image databases for recognition. CVPR, 2008. [24] J. Wang, S. Kumar, and S.-F. Chang. Semi-supervised hashing for scalable image retrieval. CVPR, 2010. [25] J. Wang, J. Yang, K. Yu, F. Lv, T. Huang, and Y. Gong. Locality-constrained linear coding for image classification. CVPR, 2010. [26] Y. Weiss, A. Torralba, and R. Fergus. Spectral hashing. NIPS, 2008. [27] J. Xiao, J. Hays, K. A. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. SUN database: Large-scale scene recognition from Abbey to Zoo. CVPR, 2010. [28] G. K. Zipf. The psychobiology of language. Houghton-Mifflin, 1935. 9
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Training sparse natural image models with a fast Gibbs sampler of an extended state space Jascha Sohl-Dickstein Redwood Center for Theoretical Neuroscience [email protected] Lucas Theis Werner Reichardt Centre for Integrative Neuroscience [email protected] Matthias Bethge Werner Reichardt Centre for Integrative Neuroscience [email protected] Abstract We present a new learning strategy based on an efficient blocked Gibbs sampler for sparse overcomplete linear models. Particular emphasis is placed on statistical image modeling, where overcomplete models have played an important role in discovering sparse representations. Our Gibbs sampler is faster than general purpose sampling schemes while also requiring no tuning as it is free of parameters. Using the Gibbs sampler and a persistent variant of expectation maximization, we are able to extract highly sparse distributions over latent sources from data. When applied to natural images, our algorithm learns source distributions which resemble spike-and-slab distributions. We evaluate the likelihood and quantitatively compare the performance of the overcomplete linear model to its complete counterpart as well as a product of experts model, which represents another overcomplete generalization of the complete linear model. In contrast to previous claims, we find that overcomplete representations lead to significant improvements, but that the overcomplete linear model still underperforms other models. 1 Introduction Here we study learning and inference in the overcomplete linear model given by Y x = As, p(s) = fi (si ), (1) i where A ? RM ?N , N ? M , and each marginal source distribution fi may depend on additional parameters. Our goal is to find parameters which maximize the model?s log-likelihood, log p(x), for a given set of observations x. Most of the literature on overcomplete linear models assumes observations corrupted by additive Gaussian noise, that is, x = As + ? for a Gaussian distributed random variable ?. Note that this is a special case of the model discussed here, as we can always represent this noise by making some of the sources Gaussian. When the observations are image patches, the source distributions fi (si ) are typically assumed to be sparse or leptokurtotic [e.g., 2, 20, 28]. Examples include the Laplace distribution, the Cauchy distribution, and Student?s t-distribution. A large family of leptokurtotic distributions which also contains 1 A s2 p(z|x) p(s|x) A B s1 ? s A x B z Figure 1: A: In the noiseless overcomplete linear model, the posterior distribution over hidden sources s lives on a linear subspace. The two parallel lines indicate two different subspaces for different values of x. For sparse source distributions, the posterior will generally be heavy-tailed and multimodal, as can be seen on the right. B: A graphical model representation of the overcomplete linear model extended by two sets of auxiliary variables (Equation 2 and 3). We perform blocked Gibbs sampling between ? and z to sample from the posterior distribution over all latent variables given an observation x. For a given ?, the posterior over z becomes Gaussian while for given z, the posterior over ? becomes factorial and is thus easy to sample from. the aforementioned distributions as a special case is formed by Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs), Z fi (si ) = 0 ? gi (?i )N (si ; 0, ??1 i ) d?i , (2) where gi (?i ) is a univariate density over precisions ?i . In the following, we will concentrate on linear models whose marginal source distributions can be represented as GSMs. For a detailed description of the representational power of GSMs, see Andrews and Mallows? paper [1]. Despite the apparent simplicity of the linear model, inference over the latent variables is computationally hard except for a few special cases such as when all sources are Gaussian distributed. In particular, the posterior distribution over sources p(s | x) is constrained to a linear subspace and can have multiple modes with heavy tails (Figure 1A). Inference can be simplified by assuming additive Gaussian noise, constraining the source distributions to be log-concave or making crude approximations to the posterior. Here, however, we would like to exhaust the full potential of the linear model. On this account, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to obtain samples with which we represent the posterior distribution. While computationally more demanding than many other methods, this allows us, at least in principle, to approximate the posterior to arbitrary precision. Other approximations often introduce strong biases and preclude learning of meaningful source distributions. Using MCMC, on the other hand, we can study the model?s optimal sparseness and overcompleteness level in a more objective fashion as well as evaluate the model?s log-likelihood. However, multiple modes and heavy tails also pose challenges to MCMC methods. General purpose methods are therefore likely to be slow. In the following, we will describe an efficient blocked Gibbs sampler which exploits the specific structure of the sparse linear model. 2 Sampling and inference In this section, we first review the nullspace sampling algorithm of Chen and Wu [4], which solves the problem of sampling from a linear subspace in the noiseless case of the overcomplete linear model. We then introduce an additional set of auxiliary variables which leads to an efficient blocked Gibbs sampler. 2 2.1 Nullspace sampling The basic idea behind the nullspace sampling algorithm is to extend the overcomplete linear model by an additional set of variables z which essentially makes it complete (Figure 1B),     x A = s, (3) z B where B ? R(N ?M )?N and square brackets denote concatenation. If in addition to our observation x we knew the unobserved variables z, we could perform inference as in the complete case by simply solving the above linear system, provided the concatenation of A and B is invertible. If the rows of A and B are orthogonal, AB > = 0, or, in other words, B spans the nullspace of A, we have s = A+ x + B + z, (4) where A+ and B + are the pseudoinverses [24] of A and B, respectively. The marginal distributions over x and s do not depend on our choice of B, which means we can choose B freely. An orthogonal basis spanning the nullspace of A can be obtained from A?s singular value decomposition [4]. Making use of Equation 4, we can equally well try to obtain samples from the posterior p(z | x) instead of p(s | x). In contrast to the latter, this distribution has full support and is not restricted to just a linear subspace, Y p(z | x) ? p(z, x) ? p(s) = fi (wi> x + vi> z), (5) i wi> vi> + + where and are the i-th rows of A and B , respectively. Chen and Wu [4] used Metropolisadjusted Langevin (MALA) sampling [25] to sample from p(z | x). 2.2 Blocked Gibbs sampling The fact that the marginals fi (si ) are expressed as Gaussian mixtures (Equation 2) can be used to derive an efficient blocked Gibbs sampler. The Gibbs sampler alternately samples nullspace representations z and precisions of the source marginals ?. The key observation here is that given the precisions ?, the distribution over x and z becomes Gaussian which makes sampling from the posterior distribution tractable. A similar idea was pursued by Olshausen and Millman [21], who modeled the source distributions with mixtures of Gaussians and conditionally Gibbs sampled precisions one by one. However, a change in one of the precision variables entails larger computational costs, so that this algorithm is most efficient if only few Gaussians are used and the probability of changing precisions is small. In contrast, here we update all precision variables in parallel by conditioning on the nullspace representation z. This makes it feasible to use a large or even infinite number of precisions. Conditioned on a data point x and a corresponding nullspace representation z, the distribution over precisions ? becomes factorial, Y p(? | x, z) = p(? | s) ? p(s | ?)p(?) = N (si ; 0, ??1 (6) i )gi (?i ), i where we have used the fact that we can perfectly recover the sources given x and z (Equation 4). Using a finite number of precisions ?ik with prior probabilities ?ik , for example, the posterior probability of ?i being ?ij becomes N (si ; 0, ??1 ij )?ij p(?i = ?ij | x, z) = P . ?1 k N (si ; 0, ?ik )?ik (7) Conditioned on ?, s is Gaussian distributed with diagonal covariance ??1 = diag(??1 ). As a linear transformation of s, the distribution over x and z is also Gaussian with covariance     ?xx ?xz A??1 A> A??1 B > ?= = . (8) ?> ?zz B??1 A> B??1 B > xz 3 Using standard Gaussian identities, we obtain p(z | x, ?) = N (z; ?z|x , ?z|x ), (9) ?1 > ?1 where ?z|x = ?> xz ?xx x and ?z|x = ?zz ? ?xz ?xx ?xz . We use the following computationally efficient method to conditionally sample Gaussian distributions [8, 14]:  0  x ?1 0 ? N (0, ?), z = z 0 + ?> (10) xz ?xx (x ? x ). z0 It can easily be shown that z has the desired distribution of Equation 9. Together, equations 7 and 9 implement a rapidly mixing blocked Gibbs sampler. However, the computational cost of solving Equation 10 is larger than for a single Markov step in other sampling methods such as MALA. We empirically show in the results section that for natural image patches the benefits of blocked Gibbs sampling outweigh its computational costs. A closely related sampling algorithm was proposed by Park and Casella [23] for implementing Bayesian inference in the linear regression model with Laplace prior. The main differences here are that we also consider the noiseless case by exploiting the nullspace representation, that instead of using a fixed Laplace prior we will use the sampler to learn the distribution over source variables, and that we apply the algorithm in the context of image modeling. Related ideas were also discussed by Papandreou and Yuille [22], Schmidt et al. [27], and others. 3 Learning In the following, we describe a learning strategy for the overcomplete linear model based on the idea of persistent Markov chains [26, 32, 36], which already has led to improved learning strategies for a number of different models [e.g., 6, 12, 29, 32]. Following Girolami [11] and others, we use expectation maximization (EM) [7] to maximize the likelihood of the overcomplete linear model. Instead of a variational approximation, here we use the blocked Gibbs sampler to sample a hidden state z for every data point x in the E-step. Each M-step then reduces to maximum likelihood learning as in the complete case, for which many algorithms are available. Due to the sampling step, this variant of EM is known as Monte Carlo EM [34]. Despite our efforts to make sampling efficient, running the Markov chain till convergence can still be a costly operation due to the generally large number of data points and high dimensionality of posterior samples. To further reduce computational costs, we developed a learning strategy which makes use of persistent Markov chains and only requires a few sampling steps in every iteration. Instead of starting the Markov chain anew in every iteration, we initialize the Markov chain with the samples of the previous iteration. This approach is based on the following intuition. First, if the model changes only slightly, the posterior will change only slightly. As a result, the samples from the previous iteration will provide a good initialization and fewer updates of the Markov chain will be sufficient to reach convergence. Second, if updating the Markov chain has only a small effect on the posterior samples z, also the distribution of the complete data (x, z) will change very little. Thus, the optimal parameters of the previous M-step will be close to optimal in the current M-step. This causes an inefficient Markov chain to automatically slow down the learning process, so that the posterior samples will always be close to the stationary distribution. Even updating the Markov chain only once results in a valid EM strategy, which can be seen as follows. EM can be viewed as alternately optimizing a lower bound to the log-likelihood with respect to model parameters ? and an approximating posterior distribution q [18]: F [q, ?] = log p(x; ?) ? DKL [q(z | x) || p(z | x, ?)] . (11) Each M-step increases F for fixed q while each E-step increases F for fixed ?. This is repeated until a local optimum is reached. Importantly, local maxima of F are also local maxima of the log-likelihood, log p(x; ?). Interestingly, improving the lower bound F with respect to q can be accomplished by driving the Markov chain with our Gibbs sampler or some other transition operator [26]. This can be seen 4 B Image model Toy model 7.5 25 7.3 0 7.1 ?25 6.9 Autocorrelation Avg. posterior energy A ?50 0 5 10 Time [s] 15 0 20 40 60 80 1 MALA HMC Gibbs 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0 Time [s] Image model Toy model 5 10 Time [s] 15 0 20 40 60 80 Time [s] Figure 2: A: The average energy of posterior samples for different sampling methods after deterministic initialization. Depending on the initialization, the average energy can be initially too low or too high. Gray lines correspond to different hyperparameter choices for the HMC sampler, red and brown lines indicate the manually picked best performing HMC and MALA samplers. The dashed line represents an unbiased estimate of the true average posterior energy. B: Autocorrelation functions for Gibbs sampling and the best HMC and MALA samplers. by using the fact that application of a transition operator T to any distribution cannot increase its Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to a stationary distribution [5, 15]: DKL [T q(z | x) || p(z | x, ?)] ? DKL [q(z | x) || p(z | x, ?)] , (12) R where T q(z | x) = q(z0 | x)T (z | z0 , x) dz0 and T (z | z0 , x) is the probability density of making a transition from z0 to z. Hence, each Gibbs update of the hidden states implicitly increases F . In practice, of course, we only have access to samples from T q and will never compute it explicitly. This shows that the algorithm converges provided the log-likelihood is bounded. This stands in contrast to other contexts where persistent Markov chains have been successful but training can diverge [10]. To guarantee not only convergence but convergence to a local optimum of F , we would also have to prove DKL [T n q(z | x) || p(z | x, ?)] ? 0 for n ? ?. Unfortunately, most results on MCMC convergence deal with convergence in total variation, which is weaker than convergence in KL divergence. 4 Results We trained several linear models on log-transformed, centered and symmetrically whitened image patches extracted from van Hateren?s dataset of natural images [33]. We explicitly modeled the DC component of the whitened image patches using a mixture of Gaussians and constrained the remaining components of the linear basis to be orthogonal to the DC component. For faster convergence, we initialized the linear basis with the sparse coding algorithm of Olshausen and Field [19], which corresponds to learning with MAP inference and fixed marginal source distributions. After initialization, we optimized the basis using L-BFGS [3] during each M-step and updated the representation of the posterior using 2 steps of Gibbs sampling in each E-step. To represent the source marginals, we used finite GSMs (Equation 8) with 10 precisions ?ij each and equal prior weights, that is, ?ij = 0.1. The source marginals were initialized by fitting them to samples from the Laplace distribution and later optimized using 10 iterations of standard EM at the beginning of each M-step. 4.1 Performance of the blocked Gibbs sampler We compared the sampling performance of our Gibbs sampler to MALA sampling?as used by Chen and Wu [4]?as well as HMC sampling [9], which is a generalization of MALA. The HMC sampler has two parameters: a step width and a number of so called leap frog steps. In addition, we slightly randomized the step width to avoid problems with periodicity [17], which added an additional parameter to control the degree of randomization. After manually determining a reasonable range for the parameters of HMC, we picked 40 parameter sets for each model to test against our Gibbs sampler. 5 Basis vector norm, ||ai || Laplace, 2x GSM, 2x GSM, 3x GSM, 4x 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 64 128 192 256 Basis coefficient, i Figure 3: We trained models with up to four times overcomplete representations using either Laplace marginals or GSM marginals. A four times overcomplete basis set is shown in the center. Basis vectors were normalized so that the corresponding source distributions had unit variance. The left plot shows the norms of the learned basis vectors. With fixed Laplace marginals, the algorithm produces a basis which is barely overcomplete. However, with GSM marginals the model learns bases which are at least three times overcomplete. The right panel shows log-densities of the source distributions corresponding to basis vectors inside the dashed rectangle. For reference, each plot also contains a Laplace distribution of equal variance. The algorithms were tested on one toy model and one two times overcomplete model trained on 8 ? 8 image patches. The toy model employed 1 visible unit and 3 hidden units with exponential power distributions whose exponents were 0.5. The entries of its basis matrix were randomly drawn from a Gaussian distribution with mean 1 and standard deviation 0.2. Figure 2 shows trace plots and autocorrelation functions for the different sampling methods. The trace plots were generated by measuring the negative log-density (or energy) of posterior samples for a fixed set of visible states over time, ? log p(x, zt ), and averaging over data points. Autocorrelation functions were estimated from single Markov chain runs of equal duration for each sampler and data point. All Markov chains were initialized using 100 burn-in steps of Gibbs sampling, independent of the sampler used to generate the autocorrelation functions. Finally, we averaged several autocorrelation functions corresponding to different data points (see Supplementary Section 1 for more information). For both models we observed faster convergence with Gibbs sampling than with the best MALA or HMC samplers (Figure 2). The image model in particular benefited from replacing MALA by HMC. Still, even the best HMC sampler produced more correlated samples than the blocked Gibbs sampler. While the best HMC sampler reached an autocorrelation of 0.05 after about 64 seconds, it took only about 26 seconds with the blocked Gibbs sampler (right-hand side of Figure 2B). All tests were performed on a single core of an AMD Opteron 6174 machine with 2.20 GHz and implementations written in Python and NumPy. 4.2 Sparsity and overcompleteness Berkes et al. [2] found that even for very sparse choices of the Student-t prior, the representations learned by the linear model are barely overcomplete if a variational approximation to the posterior is used. Similar results and even undercomplete representations were obtained by Seeger [28] with the Laplace prior. The results of these studies suggest that the optimal basis set is not very overcomplete. On the other hand, basis sets obtained with other, often more crude approximations are often highly overcomplete. In the following, we revisit the question of optimal overcompletness and support our findings with quantitative measurements. Consistent with the study of Seeger [28], if we fix the source distributions to be Laplacian, our algorithm learns representations which are only slightly overcomplete (Figure 3). However, much more overcomplete representations were obtained when the source distributions were learned from the data. This is in line with the results of Olshausen and Millman [21], who used mixtures of two 6 Log-likelihood ? SEM [bit/pixel] 16 ? 16 image patches 8 ? 8 image patches 1.5 1.48 1.48 1.44 1.47 1.47 1.5 1.55 1.58 1.33 1.25 1.3 1.1 1.41 1.36 1.38 1.39 1.41 1.46 1.49 1.3 Gaussian GSM LM OLM PoT 1.1 1.03 0.96 0.9 0.9 - - 1x 2x 3x 4x 2x 3x - 4x Overcompleteness - 1x 2x 3x 4x 2x 3x 4x Overcompleteness Figure 4: A comparison of different models for natural image patches. While using overcomplete representations (OLM) yields substantial improvements over the complete linear model (LM), it still cannot compete with other models of natural image patches. GSM here refers to a single multivariate Gaussian scale mixture, that is, an elliptically contoured distribution with very few parameters (see Supplementary Section 3). Log-likelihoods are reported for non-whitened image patches. Average log-likelihood and standard error of the mean (SEM) were calculated from log-probabilities of 10000 test data points. and three Gaussians as source distributions and obtained two times overcomplete representations for 8 ? 8 image patches. Figure 3 suggests that with GSMs as source distributions, the model can make use of three and up to four times overcomplete representations. Our quantitative evaluations confirmed a substantial improvement of the two-times overcomplete model over the complete model. Beyond this, however, the improvements quickly become negligible (Figure 4). The source distributions discovered by our algorithm were extremely sparse and resembled spikeand-slab distributions, generating mostly values close to zero with the occasional outlier. Source distributions of low-frequency components generally had narrower peaks than those of high-frequency components (Figure 3). 4.3 Model comparison To compare the performance of the overcomplete linear model to the complete linear model and other image models, we would like to evaluate the overcomplete linear models? log-likelihood on a test set of images. However, to do this, we would have to integrate out all hidden units, which we cannot do analytically. One way to nevertheless obtain an unbiased estimate of p(x) is by introducing a tractable distribution as follows: Z Z p(x, z) p(x) = p(x, z) dz = q(z | x) dz. (13) q(z | x) We can then estimate the above integral by sampling states zn from q(z | x) and averaging over p(x, zn )/q(zn | x), a technique called importance sampling. The closer q(z | x) is to p(z | x), the more efficient the estimator will be. A procedure for constructing distributions q(z | x) from transition operators such as our Gibbs sampling operator is annealed importance sampling (AIS) [16]. AIS starts with a simple and tractable distribution and successively brings it closer to p(z | x). The computational and statistical efficiency of the estimator depends on the efficieny of the transition operator. Here, we used our Gibbs sampler and constructed intermediate distributions by interpolating between a Gaussian distribution and the overcomplete linear model. For the four-times overcomplete model, we used 300 intermediate distributions and 300 importance samples to estimate the density of each data point. We find that the overcomplete linear model is still worse than, for example, a single multivariate GSM with separately modeled DC component (Figure 4; see also Supplementary Section 3). 7 An alternative overcomplete generalization of the complete linear model is the family of products of experts (PoE) [13]. Instead of introducing additional source variables, a PoE can have more factors than visible units, Y s = W x, p(x) ? fi (si ), (14) i N ?M where W ? R and each factor is also called an expert. For N = M , the PoE is equivalent to the linear model (Equation 1). In contrast to the overcomplete linear model, the prior over hidden sources s here is in general not factorial. A popular choice of PoE in the context of natural images is the product of Student-t (PoT) distributions, in which experts have the form fi (si ) = (1 + s2i )??i [35]. To train the PoT, we used a persistent variant of minimum probability flow learning [29, 31]. We used AIS in combination with HMC to evaluate each PoT model [30]. We find that the PoT is better suited for modeling the statistics of natural images and takes better advantage of overcomplete representations (Figure 4). While both the estimator for the PoT and the estimator for the overcomplete linear model are consistent, the former tends to overestimate and the latter tends to underestimate the average loglikelihood. It is thus crucial to test convergence of both estimates if any meaningful comparison is to be made (see Supplementary Section 2). 5 Discussion We have shown how to efficiently perform inference, training and evaluation in the sparse overcomplete linear model. While general purpose sampling algorithms such as MALA or HMC have the advantage of being more widely applicable, we showed that blocked Gibbs sampling can be much faster when the source distributions are sparse, as for natural images. Another advantage of our sampler is that it is parameter free. Choosing suboptimal parameters for the HMC sampler can lead to extremely poor performance. Which parameters are optimal can change from data point to data point and over time as the model is trained. Furthermore, monitoring the convergence of the Markov chains can be problematic [28]. We showed that by training a model with a persistent variant of Monte Carlo EM, even the number of sampling steps performed in each E-step becomes much less crucial for the success of training. Optimizing and evaluating the likelihood of overcomplete linear models is a challenging problem. To our knowledge, our study is the first to show a clear advantage of the overcomplete linear model over its complete counterpart on natural images. At the same time, we demonstrated that with the assumptions of a factorial prior, the overcomplete linear model underperforms other generalizations of the complete linear model. Yet it is easy to see how our algorithm could be extended to other, much better performing models. For instance, models in which multiple sources are modeled jointly by a multivariate GSM, or bilinear models with two sets of latent variables. Code for training and evaluating overcomplete linear models is available at http://bethgelab.org/code/theis2012d/. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Bruno Olshausen, Nicolas Heess and George Papandreou for helpful comments. This study was financially supported by the Bernstein award (BMBF; FKZ: 01GQ0601), the German Research Foundation (DFG; priority program 1527, BE 3848/2-1), and a DFG-NSF collaboration grant (TO 409/8-1). References [1] D. F. Andrews and C. L. Mallows. Scale mixtures of normal distributions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 36(1):99?102, 1974. [2] P. Berkes, R. Turner, and M. Sahani. On sparsity and overcompleteness in image models. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 20, 2008. [3] R. H. Byrd, P. Lu, and J. Nocedal. A limited memory algorithm for bound constrained optimization. SIAM Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing, 16(5):1190?1208, 1995. 8 [4] R.-B. Chen and Y. N. Wu. A null space method for over-complete blind source separation. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(12):5519?5536, 2007. [5] T. Cover and J. Thomas. Elements of Information Theory. Wiley, 1991. [6] B. J. Culpepper, J. Sohl-Dickstein, and B. A. Olshausen. Building a better probabilistic model of images by factorization. Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision, 13, 2011. [7] A. P. Dempster, N. M. Laird, and D. B. Rubin. Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 39(1):1?38, 1977. [8] A. Doucet. A note on efficient conditional simulation of Gaussian distributions, 2010. [9] S. Duane, A. D. Kennedy, B. J. Pendleton, and D. Roweth. Hybrid Monte Carlo. Physics Letters B, 195 (2):216?222, 1987. [10] A. Fischer and C. Igel. Empirical analysis of the divergence of Gibbs sampling based learning algorithms for restricted Boltzmann machines. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, 2010. [11] M. Girolami. A variational method for learning sparse and overcomplete representations. Neural Computation, 13(11):2517?2532, 2001. [12] N. Heess, N. Le Roux, and J. Winn. Weakly supervised learning of foreground-background segmentation using masked rbms. International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, 2011. [13] G. E. Hinton. Training products of experts by minimizing contrastive divergence. Neural Computation, 14(8):1771?1800, 2002. [14] Y. Hoffman and E. Ribak. Constrained realizations of Gaussian fields: a simple algorithm. The Astrophysical Journal, 380:L5?L8, 1991. [15] I. Murray and R. Salakhutdinov. Notes on the KL-divergence between a Markov chain and its equilibrium distribution, 2008. [16] R. M. Neal. Annealed importance sampling. Statistics and Computing, 11(2):125?139, 2001. [17] R. M. Neal. MCMC using Hamiltonian Dynamics, pages 113?162. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, 2011. [18] R. M. Neal and G. E. Hinton. A view of the EM algorithm that justifies incremental, sparse, and other variants, pages 355?368. MIT Press, 1998. [19] B. A. Olshausen and D. J. Field. Emergence of simple-cell receptive field properties by learning a sparse code for natural images. Nature, 381:607?609, 1996. [20] B. A. Olshausen and D. J. Field. Sparse coding with an overcomplete basis set: A strategy employed by V1? Vision Research, 37(23):3311?3325, 1997. [21] B. A. Olshausen and K. J. Millman. Learning sparse codes with a mixture-of-Gaussians prior. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 12, 2000. [22] G. Papandreou and A. L. Yuille. Gaussian sampling by local perturbations. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 23, 2010. [23] T. Park and G. Casella. The Bayesian lasso. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103(482): 681?686, 2008. [24] R. Penrose. A generalized inverse for matrices. Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 51:406?413, 1955. [25] G. O. Roberts and R. L. Tweedie. Exponential convergence of Langevin diffusions and their discrete approximations. Bernoulli, 2(4):341?363, 1996. [26] B. Sallans. A hierarchical community of experts. Master?s thesis, University of Toronto, 1998. [27] U. Schmidt, Q. Gao, and S. Roth. A generative perspective on MRFs in low-level vision. Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2010. [28] M. W. Seeger. Bayesian inference and optimal design for the sparse linear model. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:759?813, 2008. [29] J. Sohl-Dickstein. Persistent minimum probability flow, 2011. [30] J. Sohl-Dickstein and B. J. Culpepper. Hamiltonian annealed importance sampling for partition function estimation, 2012. [31] J. Sohl-Dickstein, P. Battaglino, and M. R. DeWeese. Minimum probability flow learning. Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2011. [32] T. Tieleman. Training restricted Boltzmann machines using approximations to the likelihood gradient. Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2008. [33] J. H. van Hateren and A. van der Schaaf. Independent component filters of natural images compared with simple cells in primary visual cortex. Proc. of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 265(1394), 1998. [34] G. C. G. Wei and M. A. Tanner. A Monte Carlo implementation of the EM algorithm and the poor man?s data augmentation algorithms. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85(411):699?704, 1990. [35] M. Welling, G. Hinton, and S. Osindero. Learning sparse topographic representations with products of Student-t distributions. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 15, 2003. [36] L. Younes. Parametric inference for imperfectly observed Gibbsian fields. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 1999. 9
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Learning with Partially Absorbing Random Walks Xiao-Ming Wu1 , Zhenguo Li1 , Anthony Man-Cho So3 , John Wright1 and Shih-Fu Chang1,2 1 Department of Electrical Engineering, Columbia University 2 Department of Computer Science, Columbia University 3 Department of SEEM, The Chinese University of Hong Kong {xmwu, zgli, johnwright, sfchang}@ee.columbia.edu, [email protected] Abstract We propose a novel stochastic process that is with probability ?i being absorbed at current state i, and with probability 1 ? ?i follows a random edge out of it. We analyze its properties and show its potential for exploring graph structures. We prove that under proper absorption rates, a random walk starting from a set S of low conductance will be mostly absorbed in S. Moreover, the absorption probabilities vary slowly inside S, while dropping sharply outside, thus implementing the desirable cluster assumption for graph-based learning. Remarkably, the partially absorbing process unifies many popular models arising in a variety of contexts, provides new insights into them, and makes it possible for transferring findings from one paradigm to another. Simulation results demonstrate its promising applications in retrieval and classification. 1 Introduction Random walks have been widely used for graph-based learning, leading to a variety of models including PageRank [14] for web page ranking, hitting and commute times [8] for similarity measure between vertices, harmonic functions [20] for semi-supervised learning, diffusion maps [7] for dimensionality reduction, and normalized cuts [12] for clustering. In graph-based learning one often adopts the cluster assumption, which states that the semantics usually vary smoothly for vertices within regions of high density [17], and suggests to place the prediction boundary in regions of low density [5]. It is thus interesting to ask how the cluster assumption can be realized in terms of random walks. Although a random walk appears to explore the graph globally, it converges to a stationary distribution determined solely by vertex degrees regardless of the starting points, a phenomenon well known as the mixing of random walks [11]. This causes some random walk approaches intended to capture non-local graph structures to fail, especially when the underlying graph is well connected, i.e., the random walk has a large mixing rate. For example, it was recently proven in [16] that under some mild conditions the hitting and commute times on large graphs do not take into account the global structure of the graph at all, despite the fact that they have integrated all the relevant paths on the graph. It is also shown in [13] that the ?harmonic? walks [20] in high-dimensional spaces converge to a constant distribution as the data size approaches infinity, which is undesirable for classification and regression. These findings show that intuitions regarding random walks can sometimes be misleading, and should be taken with caution. A natural question is: can we design a random walk which implements the cluster assumption with some guarantees? In this paper, we propose partially absorbing random walks (PARWs), a novel random walk model whose properties can be analyzed theoretically. In PARWs, a random walk is with probability ?i being absorbed at current state i, and with probability 1 ? ?i follows a random edge out of it. PARWs are guaranteed to implement the cluster assumption in the sense that under proper absorp1 pkk pii k' p jj k k t =0 t =1 j i t=2 (a) (b) j' i' j i (c) Figure 1: A partially absorbing random walk. (a) A flow perspective (see text). (b) A second-order Markov chain. (c) An equivalent standard Markov chain with additional sinks. tion rates, a random walk starting from a set S of low conductance will be mostly absorbed in S. Furthermore, we show that by setting the absorption rates, the absorption probabilities can vary slowly inside S, while dropping sharply outside S. This approximately piecewise constant property makes PARWs highly desirable and robust for a variety of learning tasks including ranking, clustering, and classification, as demonstrated in Section 4. More interestingly, it turns out that many existing models including PageRank, hitting and commute times, and label propagation algorithms in semi-supervised learning, can be unified or related in PARWs, which brings at least two benefits. On one hand, our theoretical analysis sheds some light on the understanding of existing models; on the other hand, it enables transferring findings among different paradigms. We present our model in Section 2, analyze a special case of it in Section 3, and show simulation results in Section 4. Section 5 concludes the paper. Most of our proofs are included in supplementary material. 2 Partially Absorbing Random Walks Let us consider a simple diffusion process illustrated in Fig. 1(a). At the beginning, a unit flow (blue) is injected to the graph at a selected vertex. After one step, some of the flow (red) is ?stored? at the vertex while the rest (blue) propagates to its neighbors. Whenever the flow passes a vertex, some fraction of it is retained at that vertex. As this process continues, the amount of flow stored in each vertex will accumulate and there will be less and less flow left running on the graph. After a certain number of steps, there will be almost no flow left running and the flow stored will nearly sum up to 1. The above diffusion process can be made precise in terms of random walks, as shown below. Consider a discrete-time stochastic process X = {Xt : t ? 0} on the state space N = {1, 2, . . . , n}, where the initial state X0 is given, say X0 = i, the next state X1 is determined by the transition probability P(X1 = j|X0 = i) = pij , and the subsequent states are determined by the transition probabilities ( 1, i = j, i = k, 0, i 6= j, i = k, (1) P(Xt+2 = j|Xt+1 = i, Xt = k) = P(Xt+2 = j|Xt+1 = i) = pij , i 6= k, where t ? 0. Note that the process X is time homogeneous, i.e., the transition probabilities in (1) are independent of t. In other words, if the previous and current states are the same, the process will remain in the current state forever. Otherwise, the next state is conditionally independent of the previous state given the current state, i.e., the process behaves like a usual random walk. To illustrate the above construction, consider Fig. 1(b). Starting from state i, there is some probability pii that the process will stay at i in the next step; and once it stays, the process will be absorbed into state i. Hence, we shall call the above process a partially absorbing random walk (PARW), where pii is the absorption rate of state i. If 0 < pii < 1, then we say that i is a partially absorbing state. If pii = 1, then we say that i is a fully absorbing state. Finally, if pii = 0, then we say that i is a transient state. Note that if pii ? {0, 1} for every state i ? N , then the above process reduces to a standard Markov chain [9]. A PARW is a second-order Markov chain completely specified by its first order transition probabilities {pij }. One can observe that any PARW can be realized as a standard Markov chain by adding a sink (fully absorbing state) to each vertex in the graph, as illustrated in Fig. 1(c). The transition 2 probability from i to its sink i? equals the absorption rate pii in PARWs. One may also notice that the construction of PARWs can be generalized to the m-th order, i.e., the process is absorbed at a state only after it has stayed at that state for m-consecutive steps. However, it can be shown that any m-th order PARW can be realized by a second-order PARW. We will not elaborate on this due to space constraints. 2.1 PARWs on Graphs Let G = (V, W ) be an undirected weighted graph, where V is a set of n vertices and W = [wij ] ? Rn?n is a symmetric non-negative matrix of pairwisePaffinities among vertices. We assume G is connected. Let D = diag(d1 , d2 , . . . , dn ) with di = j wij as the degree of vertex i, and define P the Laplacian of G by L = D ? W [6]. Denote by d(S) := i?S di the volume of a subset S ? V of vertices. Let ?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?n ? 0 be arbitrary, and set ? = diag(?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?n ). Suppose that we define the first order transition probabilities of a PARW by ( ? i ?i +di , i = j, pij = (2) wij ?i +di , i 6= j. Then, we see that state i is an absorbing state (either partially or fully) when ?i > 0, and is a transient state when ?i = 0. In particular, the matrix ? acts like a regularizer that controls the absorption rate of each state, i.e., the larger ?i , the larger pii . In the sequel, we refer to ? as the regularizer matrix. Absorption Probabilities. We are interested in the probability aij that a random walk starting from state i, is absorbed at state j in any finite number of steps. Let A = [aij ] ? Rn?n be the matrix of absorption probabilities. The following theorem shows that A has a closed-form. Theorem 2.1. Suppose ?i > 0 for some i. Then A = (? + L)?1 ?. Proof. Since ?i > 0 for some i, the matrix ? + L is positive definite and hence non-singular. Moreover, the matrix ? + D is non-singular, since D is non-singular. Thus, the matrix I ? (? + D)?1 W = (? + D)?1 (? + L) is also non-singular. Now, observe that the absorbing probabilities {aij } satisfy the following equations: X wij ?i aii = ?1+ aji , (3) ?i + di ?i + di j6=i X wik aij = akj , i 6= j. (4) ?i + di k6=i Upon writing equations (3) and (4) in matrix form, we have (I ? (? + D)?1 W )A = (? + D)?1 ?, whence A = (I ? (? + D)?1 W )?1 (? + D)?1 ? = (? + D ? W )?1 ? = (? + L)?1 ?. The following result confirms that A is indeed a probability matrix. Proposition 2.1. Suppose ?i > 0 for some i. Then A is a non-negative matrix with each row summing up to 1. P By Proposition 2.1, k ajk = 1 for any j. This means that a PARW starting from any vertex will eventually be absorbed, provided that there is at least one absorbing state in the state space. 2.2 Limits of Absorption Probabilities By Theorem 2.1, we see that the absorption probabilities (A) are governed by both the structure of the graph (L) and the regularizer matrix (?). It would be interesting to see how A varies with ?, particularly when ?i ?s become small which allows the flow to propagate sufficiently (Fig. 1(a)). The following result shows that as ? (?i ?s) vanishes, each row of A converges to a distribution proportional to (?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?n ), regardless of graph structure. Theorem 2.2. Suppose ?i > 0 for all i. Then ? ?, lim (?? + L)?1 ?? = 1? (5) ??0+ ? i = ?i /(Pn ?j ). In particular, lim??0+ (?I + L)?1 ?I = where (?) j=1 3 1 ? n 11 . Theorem 2.2 tells us that with ? = ?I and as ? ? 0 a PARW will converge to the constant distribution 1/n, regardless of the starting vertex. At first glance, this limit seems meaningless. However, the following lemma will show that it actually has interesting connections with L+ , the pseudo-inverse of the graph Laplacian, a matrix that is widely studied and proven useful for many learning tasks including recommendation and clustering [8]. Proposition 2.2. Suppose ? = ?I and denote A? := (? + L)?1 ? = (?I + L)?1 ?. Then, lim ??0 A? ? n1 11? = L+ . ? (6) Proposition 2.2 gives a novel probabilistic interpretation of L+ . Note that by Theorem 2.2, A0 := lim??0 A? = n1 11? . Thus L+ is the derivative of A? w.r.t. ? at ? = 0, implying that L+ reflects the variation of absorption probabilities when the absorption rate is very small. By (6), we see that ranking by L+ is essentially the same as ranking by A? , when ? is sufficiently small. 2.3 Relations with Popular Ranking and Classification Models Relations with PageRank Vectors. Suppose ?j > 0 for all j. Let a be the absorption probability vector of a PARW starting from vertex i. Denote by s the indicator vector of i, i.e., s(i) = 1 and s(j) = 0 for j 6= i. Then a? = s? (? + L)?1 ?, which can be rewritten as a? = s? (? + D)?1 ? + a? ??1 W (? + D)?1 ?. (7) ? D, we have a? = ?s? + (1 ? ?)a? D?1 W, which is exactly the equilibrium By letting ? = 1?? equation for personalized PageRank [14]. Note that ? is often referred to as the ?teleportation? probability in PageRank. This shows that personalized PageRank is a special case of PARWs with i absorption rates pii = ?i?+d = ?. i Relations with Hitting and Commute Times. The hitting time Hij is the expected time that it takes a random walk starting from i to first arrive at j, and the commute time Cij is the expected time it takes a random walk starting from i to travel to j and back to i, which can be computed as + + + Hij = d(G)(L+ Cij = Hij + Hji = d(G)(L+ (8) jj ? Lij ), ii + Ljj ? 2Lij ), P where d(G) := i di denotes the volume of the graph. By (6), when ? = ?I and ? is sufficiently ? small, ranking with Hij or Cij (say, with respect to i) is the same as ranking by A? jj ? Aij or ? ? ? Aii + Ajj ? 2Aij respectively. This appears to be not particularly meaningful because the term A? jj is the self-absorption probability that does not contain any essential information with the starting vertex i. Accordingly, it should not be included as part of the ranking function with respect to i. This argument is also supported in a recent study by [16], where the hitting and commute times are shown to be dominated by the inverse of degrees of vertices. In other words, they do not take into account the graph structure at all. A remedy they propose is to throw away the diagonal terms of L+ and only use the off-diagonal terms. This happens to suggest using absorption probabilities for ranking and as similarity measure, because when ? is sufficiently small, ranking by the off-diagonal terms of L+ is essentially the same as ranking by A? ij , i.e., the absorption probability of starting from i and being absorbed at j. Our theoretical analysis in Section 3 and the simulation results in Section 4 further confirm this argument. Relations with Semi-supervised Learning. Interestingly, many label propagation algorithms in semi-supervised learning can be cast in PARWs. The harmonic function method [20] is a PARW when setting ?i = ? (absorption rate 1) for the labeled vertices while ?i = 0 (absorption rate 0) for the unlabeled. In [19] the authors have made this interpretation in terms of absorbing random walks, where a random walk arriving at an absorbing state will stay there forever. PARWs can be viewed as an extension of absorbing random walks. The regularized harmonic function method [5] is also a PARW when setting ?i = ? for the labeled vertices while ?i = 0 for the unlabeled. The consistency method [17], if using un-normalized Laplacian instead of normalized Laplacian, is a PARW with ? = ?I. Our analysis in this paper reveals several nice properties of this case (Section 3). A variant of this method is a PARW with ? = ?D, which is the same as PageRank as shown above. If we add an additional sink to the graph, a variant of harmonic function method [10] and a variant of the regularized harmonic function method [3] can all be included as instances of PARWs. We omit the details here due to space constraints. 4 Benefits of a Unifying View. We have shown that PARWs can unify or relate many models from different contexts. This brings at least two benefits. First, it sheds some light on existing models. For instance, hitting and commute times are not suitable for ranking given its interpretation in absorption probabilities, as discussed above. In the next section, we will show that a special case of PARWs is better suited for implementing the cluster assumption for graph-based learning. Second, a unifying view builds bridges between different paradigms thus making it easier to transfer findings between them. For example, it has been shown in [2, 4] that approximate personalized PageRank vectors can be computed in O(1/?) iterations, where ? is a precision tolerance parameter. We indicate here that such a technique is also applicable to PARWs due to PARWs?s generalizing nature. Consequently, most models included in PARWs can be substantially accelerated using the same technique. 3 PARWs with Graph Conductance In this section, we present results on the properties of the absorption probability vector ai obtained by a PARW starting from vertex i (i.e., a? i is the row i of A). We show that properties of ai relate closely to the connectivity between i and the rest of graph, which can be captured by the conductance of the cluster S where i belongs. We also find that properties of ai depend on the setting of absorption rates. Our key results can be summarized as follows. In general, the probability mass of ai is mostly absorbed by S. Under proper absorption rates, ai can vary slowly within S while dropping sharply outside S. Such properties are highly desirable for learning tasks such as ranking, clustering, and classification. ? S) The conductance of a subset S ? V of vertices is defined as ?(S) = minw(S, ? , where (d(S),d(S)) P ? ? w(S, S) := ? wij is the cut between S and its complement S [6]. We denote the (i,j)?e(S,S) indicator vector of S by ?S such that ?S (i) = 1 if i ? S and ?S (i) = 0 otherwise; and denote the stationary distribution w.r.t. S by ? S such that ? S (i) = di /d(S) if i ? S and ?S (i) = 0 otherwise. In terms of the conductance of S, the following theorem gives an upper bound on the expected probability mass escaped from S if the distribution of the starting vertex is ? S . Theorem 3.1. Let S be any set of vertices satisfying d(S) ? ?2 = maxi?S? ?dii . Then, ?? S A?S? ? 1 2 d(G). ?2 1 + ?1 ?(S). 1 + ?2 ?12 Let ?1 = mini?S ?i di and (9) Theorem 3.1 shows that most of the probability mass will be absorbed in S, provided that S is of small conductance and the random walk starts from S according to ? S . In other words, a PARW will be trapped inside the cluster1 from where it starts, as desired. To identify the entire cluster, what is more desirable would be that the absorption probabilities vary slowly within the cluster while dropping sharply outside. As such, the cluster can be identified by detecting the sharp drop. We show below that such property can be achieved by setting appropriate absorption rates at vertices. 3.1 PARWs with ? = ?I We will prove that the choice of ? = ?I can fulfill the above goal. Before presenting theoretical analysis, let us discuss the intuition behind it from both flow (Fig. 1(a)) and random walk perspectives. To vary slowly within the cluster, the flow needs to be distributed evenly within it; while to drop sharply outside, the flow must be prevented from escaping. This means that the absorption rates should be small in the interior but large near the boundary area of the cluster. Setting ? = ?I ? i achieves this. It corresponds to the absorption rates pii = ?i?+d = ?+d , which decrease monotoni i ically with di . Since the degrees of vertices are usually relatively large in the interior of the cluster due to denser connections, and small near its boundary area (Fig. 2(a)), the absorption rates are therefore much larger at its boundary than in its interior (Fig. 2(b)). State differently, a random walk may move freely inside the cluster, but it will get absorbed with high probability when traveling near the cluster?s boundary. In this way, the absorption rates set up a bounding ?wall? around the cluster to prevent the random walk from escaping, leading to an absorption probability vector that 1 A cluster is understood as a subset of vertices of small conductance. 5 ?3 4 ?3 x 10 4 2 2 0 0 (a) x 10 300 (b) 600 900 0 0 (c) 300 600 900 (d) Figure 2: Absorption rates and absorption probabilities. (a) A data set of three Gaussians with the degrees of vertices in the underlying graph shown (see Section 4 for the descriptions of the data and graph construction). A starting vertex is denoted in black circle. (b?c) Absorption rates and absorption probabilities for ? = ?I (? = 10?3 ). (d) Sorted absorption probabilities of (c). For illustration purpose, in (a?b), the degrees of vertices and the absorption rates have been properly scaled, and in (c), the data are arranged such that points within each Gaussian appear consecutively. varies slowly within the cluster while dropping sharply outside (Figs. 2(c?d)), thus implementing the cluster assumption. We make these arguments precise below. It is worth pointing out that a PARW with ? = ?I is symmetric, i.e., the absorption probability of starting from i and absorbed at j is equal to the probability of starting from j and absorbed at i. For simplicity, we use the abbreviated notation a to denote ai , the absorption probability vector for the PARW starting from vertex i. By (3) and the symmetry property, we immediately see that a has the following ?harmonic? property: X wik X wjk ?i a(i) = + a(k), a(j) = a(k), j 6= i. (10) ?i + di ?i + di ?j + dj k6=i k6=j We will use this property to prove some interesting results. Another desirable property one should notice for this PARW is that the starting vertex always has the largest absorption probability, as shown by the following lemma. Lemma 3.2. Given ? = ?I, then aii > aij for any i 6= j. By Lemma 3.2 and without loss of generality, we assume the vertices are sorted so that a(1) > a(2) ? ? ? ? ? a(n), where vertex 1 is the starting vertex. Let Sk be the set of vertices {1, . . . , k}. Denote e(Si , Sj ) as the set of edges between Si and Sj . The following theorem quantifies the drop of the absorption probabilities between Sk and S?k . Theorem 3.3. For every S ? {Sk | k = 1, 2, . . . , n}, X wuv (a(u) ? a(v)) = ? 1 ? ? (u,v)?e(S,S) X ! a(k) . k?S (11) Theorem 3.3 shows that the weighted difference in absorption probabilities between Sk and S?k is  Pk ? 1 ? j=1 a(j) , implying that it drops slowly when ? is small and as k increases, as expected. Next we show the variation of absorption probabilities with graph conductance. Without loss of generality, we consider sets Sj where d(Sj ) ? 21 d(G). The following theorem says that a(j +1) will drop little from a(j) if the set Sj has high conductance or if the vertex j is far away from the starting vertex 1 (i.e., j ? 1). Lemma 3.4. If ?(Sj ) = ?, then a(j + 1) ? a(j) ?   Pj ? 1 ? k=1 a(k) ?d(Sj ) . (12) The above result can be extended to describe the drop in a much longer range, as stated in the following theorem. 6 ?3 0.4 0.01 2 0.005 1 x 10 ?3 1.12 ?3 x 10 1.1114 x 10 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.1 0 0 300 600 900 0 0 (a) 300 600 900 0 0 300 (b) 600 900 1.08 1.111 1.06 0 1.1108 0 0.6 300 (c) 600 900 300 (d) ?3 0.8 1.1112 ?3 x 10 3 600 900 (e) ?3 x 10 0.03 6 3 0.02 4 2 2 0.01 2 1 1 x 10 0.4 0.2 0 0 300 600 900 0 0 (f) 300 600 900 0 0 300 (g) 600 900 0 0 300 (h) 600 900 0 0 (i) 300 600 900 (j) Figure 3: Absorption probabilities on the three Gaussians in Fig. 2(a) with the starting vertex denoted in black circle. (a?e) ? = ?I, ? = 100 , 10?2 , 10?4 , 10?6 , 10?8 ; (f?j) ? = ?D, ? = 100 , 10?2 , 10?4 , 10?6 , 10?8 . For illustration purpose, the data are arranged such that points within each Gaussian appear consecutively, as in Fig. 2(c). Table 1: Ranking results (MAP) on USPS Digits ? = ?I PageRank Manifold Ranking Euclidean Distance 0 .981 .886 .957 .640 1 .988 .972 .987 .980 2 .876 .608 .827 .318 3 .893 .764 .827 .499 4 .646 .488 .467 .337 5 .778 .568 .630 .294 6 .940 .837 .917 .548 7 .919 .825 .822 .620 8 .746 .626 .675 .368 9 .730 .702 .719 .480 All .850 .728 .783 .508 Theorem 3.5. If ?(Sj ) ? 2?, then there exists a k > j such that   Pj ? 1 ? k=1 a(k) . d(Sk ) ? (1 + ?)d(Sj ) and a(k) ? a(j) ? ?d(Sj ) Theorem 3.5 tells us that if the set Sj has high conductance, then there will be a set Sk much larger than Sj where the absorption probability a(k) remains large. In other words, a(k) will not drop much if Sj is closely connected with the rest of graph. Combining Theorems 3.3, 3.5, and 3.1, we see that the absorption probability vector of the PARW with ? = ?I has the nice property of varying slowly within the cluster while dropping sharply outside. We remark that similar analyses have been conducted in [1, 2] on personalized PageRank, for the local clustering problem [15] whose goal is to find a local cut of low conductance near a specified starting vertex. As shown in Section 2, personalized PageRank is a special case of PARWs with ? ? = ?D = 1?? D, which corresponds to setting the same absorption rate pii = ? at each vertex. This setting does not take advantage of the cluster assumption. Indeed, despite the significant cluster structure in the three Gaussians (Fig. 2), no clear drop emerges by varying ? (Section 4). This explains the ?heuristic? used in [1, 2] where the personalized PageRank vector is divided by the degrees of vertices to generate a sharp drop. In contrast, our choice of ? = ?I appears to be more justified, without the need of such post-processing while retaining a probabilistic foundation. 4 Simulation In this section, we demonstrate our theoretical results on both synthetic and real data. For each data set, a weighted k-NN graph is constructed with k = 20. The similarity between vertices i and j is computed as wij = exp(?d2ij /?) if i is within j?s k nearest neighbors or vice versa, and wij = 0 otherwise (wii = 0), where ? = 0.2 ? r and r denotes the average square distance between each point to its 20th nearest neighbor. The first experiment is to examine the absorption probabilities when varying absorption rates. We use the synthetic three Gaussians in Fig. 2(a), which consists of 900 points from three Gaussians, with 300 in each. Fig. 3 compares the cases of ? = ?I and ? = ?D (PageRank). We can 7 Table 2: Classification accuracy on USPS HMN LGC ? = ?D ? = ?I .782 ? .068 .792 ? .062 .787 ? .048 .881 ? .039 draw several observations. For ? = ?I, when ? is large, most probability mass is absorbed in the cluster of the starting vertex (Fig. 3(a)). As it becomes appropriately small, the probability mass distributes evenly within the cluster, and a sharp drop emerges (Fig. 3(b)). As ? ? 0, the probability mass distributes more evenly within each cluster and also on the entire graph (Figs. 3(c?e)), but the drops between clusters are still quite significant. In contrast, for ? = ?D, no significant drops show for all ??s (Figs. 3(f?j)). This is due to the uniform absorption rates on the graph, which makes the flow favor vertices with denser connections (i.e., of large degrees). These observations support the theoretical arguments in Section 3 for PARWs with ? = ?I and suggest its robustness in distinguishing between different clusters. The second experiment is to test the potential of PARWs for information retrieval. We compare PARWs with ? = ?I to PageRank (i.e., PARWs with ? = ?D), Manifold Ranking [18], and the baseline using Euclidean distance. For parameter selection, we use ? = 10?6 for ? = ?I and ? = 0.15 for PageRank (see Section 2.3) as suggested in [14]. The regularization parameter in Manifold Ranking is set to 0.99, following [18]. The image benchmark USPS2 is used for this experiment, which contains 9298 images of handwritten digits from 0 to 9 of size 16 ? 16, with 1553, 1269, 929, 824, 852, 716, 834, 792, 708, and 821 instances of each digit respectively. Each instance is used as a query and the mean average precision (MAP) is reported. The results are shown in Table 1. We see that the PARW with ? = ?I consistently gives best results for individual digits as well as the entire data set. In the last experiment, we test PARWs on classification/semi-supervised learning, also on USPS with all 9298 images. We randomly sample 20 instances as labeled data and make sure there is at least one label for each class. For PARWs, we classify each unlabeled instance u to the class of the labeled vertex v where u is most likely to be absorbed, i.e., v = arg maxi?L aui where L denotes the labeled data and aui is the absorption probability. We compare PARWs with ? = ?I (? = 10?6 ) and ? = ?D (? = 0.15) to the harmonic function method (HMN) [20] coupled with class mass normalization (CMN) and the local and global consistency (LGC) method [17]. No parameter in HMN is required, and the regularization parameter in LGC is set to 0.99 following [17]. The classification accuracy averaged over 1000 runs is shown in Table 2. Again, it confirms the superior performance of the PARW with ? = ?I. In the second and third experiments, we also tried other parameter settings for methods where appropriate. We found that the performance of PARWs with ? = ?I is quite stable with small ?, and varying parameters in other methods did not lead to significantly better results, which validates our previous arguments. 5 Conclusions We have presented partially absorbing random walks (PARWs), a novel stochastic process generalizing ordinary random walks. Surprisingly, it has been shown to unify or relate many popular existing models and provide new insights. Moreover, a new algorithm developed from PARWs has been theoretically shown to be able to reveal cluster structure under the cluster assumption. Simulation results have confirmed our theoretical analysis and suggested its potential for a variety of learning tasks including retrieval, clustering, and classification. In future work, we plan to apply our model to real applications. Acknowledgements This work is supported in part by Office of Naval Research (ONR) grant #N00014-10-1-0242. 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Modelling Reciprocating Relationships with Hawkes Processes Charles Blundell Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London London, United Kingdom [email protected] Katherine A. Heller Duke University Durham, NC, USA [email protected] Jeffrey M. Beck University of Rochester Rochester, NY, USA [email protected] Abstract We present a Bayesian nonparametric model that discovers implicit social structure from interaction time-series data. Social groups are often formed implicitly, through actions among members of groups. Yet many models of social networks use explicitly declared relationships to infer social structure. We consider a particular class of Hawkes processes, a doubly stochastic point process, that is able to model reciprocity between groups of individuals. We then extend the Infinite Relational Model by using these reciprocating Hawkes processes to parameterise its edges, making events associated with edges co-dependent through time. Our model outperforms general, unstructured Hawkes processes as well as structured Poisson process-based models at predicting verbal and email turn-taking, and military conflicts among nations. 1 Introduction As social animals, people constantly organise themselves into social groups. These social groups can revolve around particular activities, such as sports teams, particular roles, such as store managers, or general social alliances, like gang members. Understanding the dynamics of group interactions is a difficult problem that social scientists strive to address. One basic problem in understanding group behaviour is that groups are often not explicitly defined, and the members must be inferred. How might we infer these groups, and from what data? How can we predict future interactions among individuals based on these inferred groups? A common approach is to infer groups, or clusters, of people based upon a declared relationship between pairs of individuals [1, 2, 3, 4]. For example, data from social networks, where two people declare that they are ?friends? or in each others? social ?neighbourhood?, can potentially be used. However these declared relationships are not necessarily readily available, truthful, or pertinent to inferring the social group structure of interest. In this paper we instead propose an approach to inferring social groups based directly on a set of real interactions between people. This approach reflects an ?actions speak louder than words? philosophy. If we are interested in capturing groups that best reflect human behaviour we should be determining the groups from instances of that same behaviour. We develop a model which can learn social group structure based on interactions data. 1 In the work that we present, our data will consist of a sequence of many events, each event reflecting one person, the sender, performing some sort of an action towards another person, the recipient, at some particular point in time. As examples, the actions we consider are that of one person sending an email to another, one person speaking to another, or one country engaging in military action towards another. The key property that we leverage to infer social groups is reciprocity. Reciprocity is a common social norm, where one person?s actions towards another increases the probability of the same type of action being returned. For example, if Bob emails Alice, it increases the probability that Alice will email Bob in the near future. Reciprocity widely manifests across many cultures, perhaps most commonly as the golden rule and tit for tat retaliation. When multiple people show a similar pattern of reciprocity, our model will place these people in their own group. The Bayesian nonparametric model we use on these time-series data is generative and accounts for the rate of events between clusters of individuals. It is built upon mutually-exciting point processes, known as Hawkes processes [5, 6]. Pairs of mutually-exciting Hawkes processes are able to capture the causal nature of reciprocal interactions. Here the processes excite one another through their actualised events. Since Poisson processes are a special case of Hawkes processes, our model is also able to capture simpler one-way, non-reciprocal, relationships as well. Our model is also related to the Infinite Relational Model (IRM) [1, 2]. The IRM typically assumes that there is a fixed graph, or social network, which is observed. Here we are interested in inferring the implicit social structure based only on the occurrences of interactions between vertices in the graph. We apply our model to reciprocal behaviour in verbal and email conversations and to military conflicts among nations. The remainder of the paper is organised as follows: section 2 discusses using Poisson processes together with the IRM. Section 3 describes our use of self-exciting and pairs of Hawkes processes, and section 4 specifies how they are used to develop our reciprocity clustering model. Section 5 presents an inference algorithm for our model, section 6 discusses related work, and section 7 presents experimental results using our model on synthetic, email, speech and intercountry conflict data. 2 Poisson processes with the Infinite Relational Model The Infinite Relational Model (IRM) [1, 2] was developed to model relationships among entities as graphs, based upon previously declared relationships. Let V denote the vertices of the graph, corresponding to individuals, and let euv denote the presence or absence of a relationship between vertices u and v, corresponding to an edge in the graph. The generative process of the IRM is: ? ? CRP(?) ?pq ? Beta(?, ?) euv ? Bernoulli(??(u)?(v) ) ?p, q ? range(?) ?u, v ? V (1) (2) (3) where ? is a partition of the vertices V , distributed according to the Chinese restaurant process (CRP) with concentration parameter ?, with p and q indexing clusters of ?. Hence vertex u belongs to the cluster given by ?(u), and consequently, the clusters in ? are given by range(?). The probability of an edge between vertex u and vertex v is then the parameter ?pq associated with their pair of clusters. Often in interaction data there are many instances of interactions between the same pair of individuals?this cannot be modelled by the IRM. A straightforward way to modify the IRM to account for this is to use a Gamma-Poisson observation model instead of this usual Beta-Bernoulli model. Unfortunately, a vanilla Gamma-Poisson observation model does not allow us to predict events into the future, outside the observed time window. Therefore we consider using a Poisson process instead. Poisson processes are stochastic counting processes. For an introduction see [7]. We shall consider Poisson processes on [0, ?), such that the number of events in any interval [s, s0 ) of the real-half line, denoted N [s, s0 ), is Poisson distributed with rate ?(s0 ? s). 2 250 Bob' Alice' rate ?pq(t) 200 Mallory' 150 Alice, Bob ? Alice, Bob Mallory ? Alice, Bob Alice, Bob ? Mallory Mallory ? Mallory 100 50 0 Alice, Bob ? Alice, Bob Mallory ? Alice, Bob Alice, Bob ? Mallory Mallory ? Mallory 0.0 0.2 0.4 time t 0.6 0.8 1.0 Figure 1: A simple example. The graph in the top left shows the clusters and edge weights learned by our model from the data in the bottom right plot. The top right plot shows the rates of interaction events between clusters. The bottom right plot shows the interaction events. In the graph, the width and temperature (how red the colour is) denotes the expected rate of events between pairs of clusters (using equations (9) and (10)). While in plots on the right, line colours indicates the identity of cluster pairs, and box colours indicate the originator of the event: Alice (red), Bob (blue), Mallory (black). Alice and Bob interact with each other such that they positively reciprocate each others? actions. Mallory, however, has an asymmetric relationship with both Alice and Bob. Only after many events caused by Mallory do Alice or Bob respond, and when they do respond they both, similarly, respond more sparsely. With Gamma priors on the rate parameter, the full Poisson Process IRM model is: ? ? CRP(?) ?pq ? Gamma(?, ?) Nuv (?) ? PoissonProcess(??(u)?(v) ) ?p, q ? range(?) ?u, v ? V (4) (5) (6) where Nuv (?) is the random counting measure of the Poisson process, and ? and ? are respectively the shape and inverse scale parameters of the Gamma prior on the rate of the Poisson processes, ?pq . Inference proceeds by conditioning on, Nuv [0, T ) = nuv where nuv is the total number of events directed from u to v in the given time interval. Since conjugacy can be maintained, due to the superposition property of Poisson processes, inference in this model is possible in much the same way as in the original IRM [2, 1]. There are two notable deficiencies of this model: the rate of events on each edge is independent of every other edge, and conditioned on the time interval containing all observed events, the times of these events are uniformly distributed. This is not the typical pattern we observe in interaction data. If I send an email to someone, it is more likely that I will receive an email from them than had I not sent an email, and the probability of receiving a reply decreases as time advances. In the following sections we will introduce and utilise mutually-exciting Hawkes processes, which are able to exactly model these phenomena. 3 Self-Exciting and Pairs of Mutually-Exciting Hawkes Processes Hawkes [5, 6] introduced a family of self- and mutually-exciting Markov point processes, often called Hawkes processes. These processes are intuitively similar to Poisson processes, but unlike Poisson processes, the rates of Hawkes processes depend upon their own historic events and those of other processes in an excitatory fashion. We shall consider an array of K ? K Hawkes processes, where K is the number of clusters in a partition drawn from a CRP restricted to the individuals V . As in the IRM, the CRP allows the 3 number of processes to grow in an unconstrained manner as the number of individuals in the graph grows. However, unlike the IRM, these Hawkes processes will be pairwise-dependent: the Hawkes process governing events from cluster p to cluster q, will depend upon the Hawkes process governing events from cluster q to cluster p. Let Npq be the counting measure of the (p, q)th Hawkes process. Each Hawkes process is a point process whose rate at time t is given by: Z t ?pq (t) = ?pq np nq + gpq (t ? s)dNqp (s) (7) ?? where ?pq is the base rate of the counting measure of the Hawkes, process, Npq . np and nq are the number of individuals in cluster p and q respectively, and gpq is a non-negative function such that R? g (s)ds < 1, ensuring that Npq is stationary. Nqp is the counting measure of the reciprocating pq 0 Hawkes process of Npq . Intuitively, if Npq governs events from cluster p to cluster q, then Nqp governs events from cluster q to cluster p. Equation (7) shows how the rates of events in these two processes are intimately intertwined. Since Nqp is an atomic measure, whose atoms correspond to the times of events, we can express the rate of Npq given in (7), by conditioning on the events of its reciprocating processes Nqp , as: X ?pq (t) = ?pq np nq + gpq (t ? tqp (8) i ) i:tqp i <t where tqp i denotes the times of the ith event of process Nqp . Thus the rate of the process Npq at time t is some base rate at which events occur, ?pq , plus an additional rate of gpq (t ? tqp i ) for each event in the reciprocating process Nqp . Figure 1(top) shows an example of how ?pq (t) and ?qp (t) vary for these pairs of processes. If gpq (?) = 0 then the process is a Poisson process with rate ?pq np nq . When p = q, the process is self-exciting: its current rate depends solely on its own previous events. In our application, selfexciting processes model interactions within a social group, as they model cohesion in reciprocity: individual reciprocation within a group is as if towards oneself. In the case of p 6= q, each pair of processes Npq and Nqp mutually excite one another. An event in one increases the probability of an event from the other, and so on. Importantly, the type of reciprocation (parameterised by gpq and gqp , respectively) differs between events from group p to group q and events from group q to group p. This difference in reciprocity is what we would like our model to leverage to learn about social groups. Hawkes processes are an example of doubly stochastic point processes. The rate of events is itself a random variable. By integrating out the events of Nqp we can see that this process is stationary, as its rate does not depend upon time, and also gain further insight into the role of the functions gpq and gqp . For self-exciting Hawkes processes, where p = q, the marginal rate is: E[?pp (t)] = n2p ?pp 1 ? Gpp (9) whilst for a pair of mutually-exciting Hawkes processes the marginal rate is: E[?pq (t)] = np nq ?pq + ?qp Gpq 1 ? Gpq Gqp (10) Rt where Gpq = ?? gpq (t ? u)du which tempers the effect of the rate of events from one process on the rate of the other. The closer Gpq is to zero, the more Poisson-like Hawkes processes behave. Whilst as Gpq approaches one, the rate of events in Npq are increasingly caused by those in Nqp . 4 Hawkes Processes with the Infinite Relational Model We combine Hawkes processes with the IRM as follows. We pick the form for the gpq functions as gpq (?) = ?pq e ? ? ?pq [5, 6, 8, 9]. Examples of using this parameterisation are shown in Figure 1(top). 4 Due to the memorylessness property of the exponential distribution, inference with Hawkes processes with this parameterisation takes time linear in the number of events [10]. Our generative model is as follows: ? ? CRP(?) (11) Z t ?pq (t) = ?pq np nq + ?pq e ? t?s ?pq dNqp (s) ?p, q ? range(?) (12) ?u, v ? V (13) (14) ?? Npq (?) ? HawkesProcess(?pq (?)) Nuv (?) ? Thinning(N?(u)?(v) (?)) where, as before, ? is a partition of the individuals, drawn from a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) with concentration parameter ?. For each pair of clusters p and q, we associate a time-varying rate ?pq (t) which dictates the rate of events from individuals in cluster p to individuals in cluster q, and a Hawkes process Npq . As described in the previous section, this rate depends upon the specific events sent in the opposite direction, from cluster q to cluster p, whose measure is also random and is denoted Nqp (?). Each random measure Nuv (?) governs events between a particular pair of individuals within clusters p and q respectively. Nuv (?) are drawn by thinning the cluster random measure Npq (?) among all of the edges between individuals in clusters p P and q. Thinning means distributing the atoms of Npq (?) among each Nuv (?), such that Npq = N (?). Constructing the edge measures by R ? u,v uv thinning means it is sufficient to ensure that 0 gpq (u)du < 1 for the process to be stationary. This condition, under the chosen parameterisation, implies that ?pq ?pq < 1. When all ?pq = 0, this model is equivalent to the Poisson process IRM in section 2. Henceforth we will use uniform thinning?each event in Npq (?) is assigned uniformly at random among all Nuv (?) where p = ?(u) and q = ?(v)?but in principle any thinning scheme may be used. For a Hawkes process Npq , the rate at which no events occurs in the interval [s, s0 ) is: e? R s0 s ?pq (t)dt (15) nuv Suppose we observe the times of all the events in [0, T ), {tuv i }i=1 for process Nuv (nuv being the total number of events from u to v in [0, T )). Suppose that individual u is in cluster p and that individual v is in cluster q. Furthermore, assume there are no events before time 0. The likelihood of each edge between individuals u and v is thus: n qp qp nuv p({tuv i }i=1 |?pq , {ti }i=1 ) = e ? np1nq RT 0 ?pq (t)dt n uv Y i=1 ?pq (tuv i ) np nq (16) n qp where ?pq = (?pq , ?pq , ?pq ), {tqp i }i=1 are the times of the reciprocal events. We place proper uniform priors on log ?, ?pq , ?pq , and ?pq , enforcing the constraint that ?pq ?pq < 1. 5 Inference We perform posterior inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our model is a departure from previous IRM-based models as there is no conjugate prior for the likelihood. Thus we cannot simply integrate out these parameters, and must sample them. To infer the partition of individuals ?, the concentration parameter ?, and the parameters of each Hawkes process ?pq = (?pq , ?pq , ?pq ), we use Algorithm 5 [11] adapted to the IRM and slice sampling [12] to draw samples from the posterior. We initialise the chain from the prior. Slice sampling is used for ? and each of ?pq , ?pq , and ?pq . When setting the bounds of the slice sampler for ?pq (?pq ) we set the upper bound to ?1pq ( ?1pq ) respectively, to ensure that ?pq ?pq ? 1. 6 Related work Several authors have considered modelling occurrence events [13, 14, 15] using piecewise constant rate Markov point processes for known number of event types. Our work directly models interaction 5 events (where an event is structured to have a sender and recipient) and the number of possible events types is not limited. [16] describes a model of occurrence events as a discrete time-series using a latent first-order Markov model. Our model differs in that it considers interaction events in continuous time and requires no first-order assumption. The model in Section 2 relates the work of [17] to the IRM [1], yielding a version of their model that learns the number of clusters whilst maintaining conjugacy. However our model does not use a Poisson process to model event times, instead using processes which have a time-varying rate. Simma and Jordan [10] describe a cascade of Poisson processes, forming a marked Hawkes process. Hawkes processes are also the basis of this work, however our work does not use side-channel information to group individuals by imposing fixed marks on the process; instead we learn structure among several co-dependent Hawkes processes and use Bayesian inference for the parameters and structure. Paninski et al [18, 19] describe a process similar to a Hawkes process that uses an additional link function to allow for inhibition amongst neurons. The interest is in modelling the activation and co-activation of neurons and as such they do not directly model cluster structure among the neurons, while our model does model this structure. Learning such structure among neurons is a potential interesting future application of this model. Our model may also be seen as a probabilistic interpretation of the interaction rank of [20], which we leverage to discover global clustering structure. An interesting future direction would be to learn a per-person (i.e., ego-centric) clustering structure. 7 Experiments In our experiments we compared our model to the Poisson process IRM (Section 2), a single Hawkes process and a single Poisson process. These latter two models are equivalent to the first two models where just one cluster is used. We compared these models quantitatively by comparing their log predictive densities (with respect to the space of ordered sequences of events) on events falling in the final 10% of the total time of the data (Table 2). We normalised the times of all events such that the first 90% of total time lay in the interval [0, 1]. We ran our inference algorithm for 5000 iterations and discarded the first 500 burn-in samples, repeating each experiment 10 times from different initialisations from the prior. Synthetic data We generated synthetic data to highlight differences between our model and the alternatives. The data involves three individuals and is plotted in Figure 1. Table 1 shows details of the fit of the model to the data, and Table 2 shows the predictive results. The Poisson IRM is uncertain how to cluster individuals as it cannot model the temporal dependence between individuals, while the Hawkes IRM can and so performs better at prediction as well. A single Hawkes process does not model the structure among individuals and so performs worse than the Hawkes IRM, although it is able to model dependence among events. Enron email threads We took the five longest threads from the Enron 2009 data set [21]. We identified threads by the set of senders and receivers, and their subject line (after removing common subject line prefixes such as ?Re:?, ?Fwd:? and so on, removing punctuation and making all letters lower case). All of these threads involve two different people so there is little scope for learning much group structure in these data: either both people are in the same cluster, or they are in two separate clusters. However as can be seen in Table 2 these data suggest a predictive advantage to using mutually-exciting Hawkes processes, as automatically determined by our model, instead of a single self-exciting Hawkes process and of both of these approaches over their corresponding Poisson processes model. A self-exciting Hawkes process is unable to mark the sender and receiver of events as differing, whilst Poisson process-based models are unable to model the causal structure of events. Santa Barbara Conversation Corpus We took five conversations from the Santa Barbara Conversation Corpus [22] involving the largest number of people. These results are labelled ?SB conv? followed by the conversation identifier in this corpus, in the results in Tables 1 and 2. These con6 Gran$ Rose$ Dan$ KUW$ USA$ Pa,$ Bern$ X$ Cher$ Paul$$ Many$ Dere$ Kare$ AFG$ TAW$ IRQ$ RUS$ CHN$ Figure 2: Graphs of clusters of individuals inferred by our model. Edge width and temperature (how red the colour is) denotes the expected rate of events between pairs of clusters (using equations (9) and (10); edges whose marginal rate is below 1 are not included). On the left is the graph inferred on the ?SB conv 26? data set. On the right is the graph inferred on the ?Small MID? data set. versations cover a variety of social situations: questions during a university lecture (12), a book discussion group (23), a meeting among city officials (26), a family argument/discussion (33), and a conversation at a family birthday party (49). We modelled the turn-taking behaviour of these groups by taking the times of when one speaker switched to the next. In Figure 2(left) we show the cluster graph found by our model for conversation 26, involving city officials discussing a grant application. The identities of participants in all of these data are anonymised, preventing an exact interpretation. However, the model captures the discussive to-and-fro of the meeting, where PATT appears to be the chair of the meeting, and DAN, ROSE and GRAN are the main discussors, all of whom discuss with the chair, initially in question and an answer format, and among themselves, with other members of the audience chipping in sporadically. Correlates of war We use version 3.0 of the Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) data set [23] to model correlates of war. This data set spans the years 1993 to 2001, and consists of MID incidents, along with the countries involved in the incidents. Incidents vary from diplomatic threats of military force to the actual deployment of military force against another state. A detailed description of each incident is available in [24]. The results of all models on the correlates of war data are given in Table 2 with details of the fits in Table 1 in the rows entitles ?Small MID? and ?Full MID?. The full MID data set consists of 82 countries?yielding a large graph. For exposition purposes, we show the graph (in Figure 2(right)) on part of the MID data set, by restricting to events among the USA, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Taiwan, Russia, China, and Iraq. Thicker and redder lines between clusters (computed from equations 9 and 10) reflect a higher rate of incidents directed between the countries along the edge. The results of the clustering given by our model are in keeping with that discussed in [24]. There were three main conflicts involving the countries we modelled during the time period this data covers. These conflicts involve 1) Russia and Afghanistan, 2) Taiwan (sometimes with support from the USA) and China (sometimes with support from Russia), and 3) Iraq, Kuwait, and the USA. 1) Revolved mostly around border disputes coming out of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, and incidents sometimes involved using former Soviet countries as proxies. 2) Reflects conflict between Taiwan and China over potential Taiwanese independence. Lastly, 3) deals with conflicts between Iraq and either Kuwait or the USA coming out of the Persian Gulf war. It is interesting to note that groups involving smaller countries were found to be more likely to initiate incidents with larger countries in a dispute (e.g. Iraq was almost always the instigator of disputes in their conflict with Kuwait and the USA). Since the data ends in 2001, relatively few disputes with Afghanistan involve the USA. 7 Synthetic Small MID Full MID Enron 0 Enron 1 Enron 2 Enron 3 Enron 4 SB conv 23 SB conv 26 SB conv 12 SB conv 49 SB conv 33 N 3 7 82 2 2 2 2 2 18 11 12 11 10 T 239 57 412 896 204 122 117 85 832 95 133 620 499 Hawkes IRM E[K] log probability 2.00 594.04?0.01 4.30 33.59?0.02 13.67 -638.25?1.16 2.00 6724.76?0.01 2.00 1202.99?0.02 2.00 616.37?0.02 2.00 497.53?0.02 2.00 252.60?0.02 11.87 1581.72?0.12 4.26 170.34?0.03 4.11 233.41?0.03 8.85 1728.13?0.07 8.44 803.22?0.16 Poisson IRM E[K] log probability 1.36 533.65?0.00 1.02 -63.99?0.03 3.93 -1412.49?5.38 2.00 4516.77?0.00 2.00 692.32?0.00 2.00 336.02?0.00 2.00 318.38?0.00 2.00 192.74?0.00 3.01 599.29?0.42 2.00 -51.92?0.14 2.53 -59.12?0.15 3.40 990.75?0.15 2.03 431.59?0.12 Table 1: Details of data sets and fits of the structured models. N denotes the number of individuals in the data set. T denotes the total number of events in the data set. E[K] is the average number of clusters found in the posterior. Log probability is the average log probability of the training data. Synthetic Small MID Full MID Enron 0 Enron 1 Enron 2 Enron 3 Enron 4 SB conv 23 SB conv 26 SB conv 12 SB conv 49 SB conv 33 Hawkes IRM 43.00?0.00 12.69?0.04 -134.97?2.98 259.20?0.01 436.66?0.01 139.40?0.01 124.22?0.01 127.82?0.02 132.57?0.27 -5.85?0.02 96.07?0.03 220.85?0.09 46.19?0.06 Poisson IRM -6.76?0.02 -50.88?0.02 -355.29?5.61 39.33?0.00 133.29?0.00 24.14?0.00 21.06?0.00 28.38?0.00 -198.34?0.23 -16.83?0.09 -97.89?0.10 -116.62?0.12 -100.83?0.04 Hawkes 39.88?0.01 6.37?0.01 -188.08?0.00 233.44?0.00 380.27?0.01 118.86?0.00 101.71?0.01 109.62?0.00 30.93?0.00 -6.05?0.00 33.18?0.00 126.94?0.00 21.71?0.00 Poisson -3.88?0.00 -50.86?0.00 -302.65?0.00 40.11?0.00 105.71?0.00 22.88?0.00 21.03?0.00 22.08?0.00 -213.18?0.00 -14.54?0.00 -128.53?0.00 -83.62?0.00 -83.79?0.00 Table 2: Average log predictive results for each model with standard errors 8 Discussion We have presented a Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning the structure among collections of co-dependent Hawkes processes, which on several interaction data sets consistently outperforms both unstructured and Poisson-based models in terms of predictive likelihoods. The intuition behind why our model works well is that it captures part of the reciprocal nature of interactions among individuals in social situations, which in turn requires modelling some of the causal relationship of events. By learning this structure, our model is able to make better predictions. There are several future directions. For example, individuals might contribute to groups differently to one another. There may be different kinds of events between individuals and other side-channel information. Both of these artefacts may be modelled by replacing the uniform thinning scheme proposed above, with a detailed model of these effects. It would be interesting to consider other parameterisations of gpq (?) that, for example, include periods of delay between reciprocation; the exponential parameterisation lends itself to efficient computation [10] whilst other parameterisations do not necessarily have this property. But different choices of gpq (?) may yield better statistical models. Another interesting avenue is to explore other structure amongst interaction events using Hawkes processes, beyond reciprocity. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful for helpful comments from the anonymous reviewers, and the support of Josh Tenenbaum, the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, PASCAL2 NoE, NIH award P30 DA028803, and an NSF postdoctoral fellowship, 8 References [1] Charles Kemp, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Thomas L. Griffiths, Takeshi Yamada, and Naonori Ueda. Learning systems of concepts with an infinite relational model. AAAI, 2006. [2] Zhao Xu, Volker Tresp, Kai Yu, and Hans-Peter Kriegel. Infinite hidden relational models. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2006. [3] Edoardo M. Airoldi, David M. Blei, Stephen E. Fienberg, and Eric P. Xing. Mixed membership stochastic blockmodel. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:1981?2014, 2008. [4] Konstantina Palla, David A. Knowles, and Zoubin Ghahramani. An infinite latent attribute model for network data. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2012. July 2012. [5] Alan G. Hawkes. Point spectra of some self-exciting and mutually-exciting point processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 58:83?90, 1971. [6] Alan G. Hawkes. Point spectra of some mutually-exciting point processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 33(3):438?443, 1971. [7] John F. C. Kingman. Poisson Processes. Oxford University Press, 1993. [8] Alan G. Hawkes and David Oakes. A cluster process representation of a self-exciting process. Journal of Applied Probability, 11(3):493?503, 1974. [9] David Oakes. The Markovian self-exciting process. Journal of Applied Probability, 12(1):69? 77, 1975. [10] Aleskandr Simma and Michael I. Jordan. Modeling events with cascades of poisson processes. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2010. [11] Radford M. Neal. Markov chain sampling methods for Dirichlet process mixture models. Technical Report 9815, University of Toronto, 1998. [12] Radford M. Neal. Slice sampling. Annals of Statistics, 31(3):705767, 2003. [13] Uri Nodelman, Christian R. Shelton, and Daphne Koller. Continuous time Bayesian networks. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2002. [14] Shyamsundar Rajaram, Thore Graepel, and Ralf Herbrich. Poisson-networks: A model of structured point processes. Proceedings of the Tenth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2005. [15] Asela Gunawardana, Christopher Meek, and Puyang Xu. A model for temporal dependencies in event streams. Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2011. [16] David Wingate, Noah D. Goodman, Daniel M. Roy, and Joshua B. Tenenbaum. The infinite latent events model. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2009. [17] Christopher DuBois and Padhraic Smyth. Modeling relational events via latent classes. In Proceedings of the 16th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2010. [18] Liam Paninski. Maximum likelihood estimation of cascade point-process neural encoding models. Network, 2004. [19] Liam Paninski, Jonathan Pillow, and Jeremy Lewi. Statistical models for neural encoding, decoding, and optimal stimulus design. In Computational Neuroscience: Theoretical Insights Into Brain Function. 2007. [20] Maayan Roth, Assaf Ben-David, David Deutscher, Guy Flysher, Ilan Horn, Ari Leichtberg, Naty Leiser, Yossi Matias, and Ron Merom. Suggesting friends using the implicit social graph. In Proceedings of the 16th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2010. [21] Enron 2009 Data set. http://www.cs.cmu.edu/ enron/. [22] John W. DuBois, Wallace L. Chafe, Charles Meyer, and Sandra A. Thompson. Santa Barbara corpus of spoken American English. Linguistic Data Consortium, 2000. [23] Faten Ghosn, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. The mid3 data set, 19932001: Procedures, coding rules, and description. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 21:133?154, 2004. [24] Dispute Narratives. http://www.correlatesofwar.org/cow2%20data/mids/mid v3.0.narratives.pdf. 9
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Mixability in Statistical Learning Tim van Erven Universit?e Paris-Sud, France [email protected] ? Peter D. Grunwald CWI and Leiden University, the Netherlands [email protected] Mark D. Reid ANU and NICTA, Australia [email protected] Robert C. Williamson ANU and NICTA, Australia [email protected] Abstract Statistical learning and sequential prediction are two different but related formalisms to study the quality of predictions. Mapping out their relations and transferring ideas is an active area of investigation. We provide another piece of the puzzle by showing that an important concept in sequential prediction, the mixability of a loss, has a natural counterpart in the statistical setting, which we call stochastic mixability. Just as ordinary mixability characterizes fast rates for the worst-case regret in sequential prediction, stochastic mixability characterizes fast rates in statistical learning. We show that, in the special case of log-loss, stochastic mixability reduces to a well-known (but usually unnamed) martingale condition, which is used in existing convergence theorems for minimum description length and Bayesian inference. In the case of 0/1-loss, it reduces to the margin condition of Mammen and Tsybakov, and in the case that the model under consideration contains all possible predictors, it is equivalent to ordinary mixability. 1 Introduction In statistical learning (also called batch learning) [1] one obtains a random sample (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xn , Yn ) of independent pairs of observations, which are all distributed according to the same distribution P ? . The goal is to select a function f? that maps X to a prediction f?(X) of Y for a new pair (X, Y ) from the same P ? . The quality of f? is measured by its excess risk, which is the expectation of its loss `(Y, f?(X)) minus the expected loss of the best prediction function f ? in a given class of functions F. Analysis in this setting usually involves giving guarantees about the performance of f? in the worst case over the choice of the distribution of the data. In contrast, the setting of sequential prediction (also called online learning) [2] makes no probabilistic assumptions about the source of the data. Instead, pairs of observations (xt , yt ) are assumed to become available one at a time, in rounds t = 1, . . . , n, and the goal is to select a function f?t just before round t, which maps xt to a prediction of yt . The quality of predictions f?1 , . . . , f?n is evaluated by their regret, which is the sum of their losses `(y1 , f?1 (x1 )), . . . , `(yn , f?n (xn )) on the actual observations minus the total loss of the best fixed prediction function f ? in a class of functions F. In sequential prediction the usual analysis involves giving guarantees about the performance of f?1 , . . . , f?n in the worst case over all possible realisations of the data. When stating rates of convergence, we will divide the worst-case regret by n, which makes the rates comparable to rates in the statistical learning setting. Mapping out the relations between statistical learning and sequential prediction is an active area of investigation, and several connections are known. For example, using any of a variety of online1 to-batch conversion techniques [3], any sequential predictions f?1 , . . . , f?n may be converted into a single statistical prediction f? and the statistical performance of f? is bounded by the sequential prediction performance of f?1 , . . . , f?n . Moreover, a deep understanding of the relation between worstcase rates in both settings is provided by Abernethy, Agarwal, Bartlett and Rakhlin [4]. Amongst others, their results imply that for many loss functions the worst-case rate in sequential prediction exceeds the worst-case rate in statistical learning. Fast Rates In sequential prediction with a finite class F, it is known that the worst-case regret can be bounded by a constant if and only if the loss ` has the property of being mixable [5, 6] (subject to mild regularity conditions on the p loss). Dividing by n, this corresponds to O(1/n) rates, which is fast compared to the usual O(1/ n) rates. In statistical learning, there are two kinds p of conditions that are associated with fast rates. First, for 0/1-loss, fast rates (faster than O(1/ n)) are associated with Mammen and Tsybakov?s margin condition [7, 8], which depends on a parameter ?. In the nicest case, ? = 1 and then O(1/n) rates are possible. Second, for log(arithmic) loss there is a single supermartingale condition that is essential to obtain fast rates in all convergence proofs of two-part minimum description length (MDL) estimators, and in many convergence proofs of Bayesian estimators. This condition, used by e.g. [9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14], sometimes remains implicit (see Example 1 below) and usually goes unnamed. A special case has been called the ?supermartingale property? by Chernov, Kalnishkan, Zhdanov and Vovk [15]. Audibert [16] also introduced a closely related condition, which does seem subtly different however. Our Contribution We define the notion of stochastic mixability of a loss `, set of predictors F, and distribution P ? , which we argue to be the natural analogue of mixability for the statistical setting on two grounds: first, we show that it is closely related to both the supermartingale condition and the margin condition, the two properties that are known to be related to fast rates; second, we show that it shares various essential properties with ordinary mixability and in specific cases is even equivalent to ordinary mixability. To support the first part of our argument, we show the following: (a) for bounded losses (including 0/1-loss), stochastic mixability is equivalent to the best case (? = 1) of a generalization of the margin condition; other values of ? may be interpreted in terms of a slightly relaxed version of stochastic mixability; (b) for log-loss, stochastic mixability reduces to the supermartingale condition; (c) in general, stochastic mixability allows uniform O(log |Fn |/n)-statistical learning rates to be achieved, where |Fn | is the size of a sub-model Fn ? F considered at sample size n. Finally, (d) if stochastic mixability does not hold, then in general O(log |Fn |/n)-statistical learning rates cannot be achieved, at least not for 0/1-loss or for log-loss. To support the second part of our argument, we show: (e) if the set F is ?full?, i.e. it contains all prediction functions for the given loss, then stochastic mixability turns out to be formally equivalent to ordinary mixability (if F is not full, then either condition may hold without the other). We choose to call our property stochastic mixability rather than, say, ?generalized margin condition for ? = 1? or ?generalized supermartingale condition?, because (f) we also show that the general condition can be formulated in an alternative way (Theorem 2) that directly indicates a strong relation to ordinary mixability, and (g) just like ordinary mixability, it can be interpreted as the requirement that a set of so-called pseudo-likelihoods is (effectively) convex. We note that special cases of results (a)?(e) already follow from existing work of many other authors; we provide a detailed comparison in Section 7. Our contributions are to generalize these results, and to relate them to each other, to the notion of mixability from sequential prediction, and to the interpretation in terms of convexity of a set of pseudo-likelihoods. This leads to our central conclusion: the concept of stochastic mixability is closely related to mixability and plays a fundamental role in achieving fast rates in the statistical learning setting. Outline In ?2 we define both ordinary mixability and stochastic mixability. We show that two of the standard ways to express mixability have natural analogues that express stochastic mixability (leading to (f)). In example 1 we specialize the definition to log-loss and explain its importance in the literature on MDL and Bayesian inference, leading to (b). A third interpretation of mixability and standard mixability in terms of sets (g) is described in ?3. The equivalence between mixability 2 and stochastic mixability if F is full is presented in ?4 where we also show that the equivalence need not hold if F is not full (e). In ?5, we turn our attention to a version of the margin condition that does not assume that F contains the Bayes optimal predictor and we show that (a slightly relaxed version of) stochastic mixability is equivalent to the margin condition, taking care of (a). We show (?6) that if stochastic mixability holds, O(log |Fn |/n)-rates can always be achieved (c), and that in some cases in which it does not hold, O(log |Fn |/n)-rates cannot be achieved (d). Finally (?7) we connect our results to previous work in the literature. Proofs omitted from the main body of the paper are in the supplementary material. 2 Mixability and Stochastic Mixability We now introduce the notions of mixability and stochastic mixability, showing two equivalent formulations of the latter. 2.1 Mixability A loss function ` : Y?A ! [0, 1] is a nonnegative function that measures the quality of a prediction a 2 A when the true outcome is y 2 Y by `(y, a). We will assume that all spaces come equipped with appropriate -algebras, so we may define distributions on them, and that the loss function ` is measurable. Definition 1 (Mixability). For ? > 0, a loss ` is called ?-mixable if for any distribution ? on A there exists a single prediction a? such that Z 1 `(y, a? ) ? ln e ?`(y,a) ?(da) for all y. (1) ? It is called mixable if there exists an ? > 0 such that it is ?-mixable. Let A be a random variable with distribution ?. Then (1) may be rewritten as ? ?`(y,A) e E? ?1 for all y. e ?`(y,a? ) 2.2 (2) Stochastic Mixability Let F be a set of predictors f : X ! A, which are measurable functions that map any input x 2 X to a prediction f (x). For example, if A = Y = {0, 1} and the loss is the 0/1-loss, `0/1 (y, a) = 1{y 6= a}, then the predictors are classifiers. Let P ? be the distribution of a pair of random variables (X, Y ) with values in X ? Y. Most expectations in the paper are with respect to P ? . Whenever this is not the case we will add a subscript to the expectation operator, as in (2). Definition 2 (Stochastic Mixability). For any ? 0, we say that (`, F, P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable if there exists an f ? 2 F such that ? ?`(Y,f (X)) e E ?1 for all f 2 F. (3) e ?`(Y,f ? (X)) We call (`, F, P ? ) stochastically mixable if there exists an ? > 0 such that it is ?-stochastically mixable. h ?`(Y,f (X)) i ? By Jensen?s inequality, we see that (3) implies 1 E ee ?`(Y,f ? (X)) eE[?(`(Y,f (X)) `(Y,f (X)))] , so that E[`(Y, f ? (X))] ? E[`(Y, f (X)))] for all f 2 F, and hence the definition of stochastic mixability presumes that f ? minimizes E[`(Y, f (X))] over all f 2 F. We will assume throughout the paper that such an f ? exists, and that E[`(Y, f ? (X))] < 1. The larger ?, the stronger the requirement of ?-stochastic mixability: Proposition 1. Any triple (`, F, P ? ) is 0-stochastically mixable. And if 0 < mixability implies -stochastic mixability. 3 < ?, then ?-stochastic Example 1 (Log-loss). Let F be a set of conditional probability densities and let `log be log-loss, i.e. A is the set of densities on Y, f (x)(y) is written, as usual, as f (y | x), and `log (y, f (x)) := ln f (y | x). For log-loss, statistical learning becomes equivalent to conditional density estimation with random design (see, e.g., [14]). Equation 3 now becomes equivalent to ? ?? f (Y | X) ? A? (f kf ) := E ? 1. (4) f ? (Y | X) A? has been called the generalized Hellinger affinity [12] in the literature. If the model is correct, i.e. it contains the true conditional density p? (y | x), then, because the log-loss is a proper loss [17] we must have f ? = p? and then, for ? = 1, trivially A? (f kf ? ) = 1 for all f 2 F. Thus if the model F is correct, then the log-loss is ?-stochastically mixable for ? = 1. In that case, for ? = 1/2, A? turns into the standard definition of Hellinger affinity [10]. Equation 4 ? which just expresses 1-stochastic mixability for log-loss ? is used in all previous convergence theorems for 2-part MDL density estimation [10, 12, 11, 18], and, more implicitly, in various convergence theorems for Bayesian procedures, including the pioneering paper by Doob [9]. All these results assume that the model F is correct, but, if one studies the proofs, one finds that the assumption is only needed to establish that (4) holds for ? = 1. For example, as first noted by [12], if F is a convex set of densities, then (4) also holds for ? = 1, even if the model is incorrect, and, indeed, two-part MDL converges at fast rates in such cases (see [14] for a precise definition of what this means, as well as more general treatment of (4)). Kleijn and Van der Vaart [13], in their extensive analysis of Bayesian nonparametric inference if the model is wrong, also use the fact that (4) holds with ? = 1 for convex models to show that fast posterior concentration rates hold for such models even if they do not contain the true p? . The definition of stochastic mixability looks similar to (2), but whereas ? is a distribution on predictions, P ? is a distribution on outcomes (X, Y ). Thus at first sight the resemblance appears to be only superficial. It is therefore quite surprising that stochastic mixability can also be expressed in a way that looks like (1), which provides a first hint that the relation goes deeper. Theorem 2. Let ? > 0. Then (`, F, P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable if and only if for any distribution ? on F there exists a single predictor f ? 2 F such that ? Z ? ? 1 E `(Y, f ? (X)) ? E ln e ?`(Y,f (X)) ?(df ) . (5) ? Notice that, without loss of generality, we can always choose f ? to be the minimizer of E[`(Y, f (X))]. Then f ? does not depend on ?. 3 The Convexity Interpretation There is a third way to express mixability, as the convexity of a set of so-called pseudo-likelihoods. We will now show that stochastic mixability can also be interpreted as convexity of the corresponding set in the statistical learning setting. Following Chernov et al. [15], we first note that the essential feature of a loss ` with corresponding set of predictions A is the set of achievable losses they induce: L = {l : Y ! [0, 1] | 9a 2 A : l(y) = `(y, a) for all y 2 Y}. If we would reparametrize the loss by a different set of predictions A0 , while keeping L the same, then essentially nothing would change. For example, for 0/1-loss standard ways to parametrize predictions are by A = {0, 1}, by A = { 1, +1} or by A = R with the interpretation that predicting a 0 maps to the prediction 1 and a < 0 maps to the prediction 0. Of course these are all equivalent, because L is the same. It will be convenient to consider the set of functions that lie above the achievable losses in L: S = S` = {l : Y ! [0, 1] | 9l0 2 L : l(y) l0 (y) for all y 2 Y}, Chernov et al. call this the super prediction set. It plays a role similar to the role of the epigraph of a function in convex analysis. Let ? > 0. Then with each element l 2 S in the super prediction 4 P? P? coPF (?) f? f? PF (?) PF (?) coPF (?) Not stochastically mixable Stochastically mixable Figure 1: The relation between convexity and stochastic mixability for log-loss, ? = 1 and X = {x} a singleton, in which case P ? and the elements of PF (?) can all be interpreted as distributions on Y. set, we associate Ra pseudo-likelihood p(y) = e ?l(y) . Note that 0 ? p(y) ? 1, but it is generally not the case that p(y) ?(dy) = 1 for some reference measure ? on Y, so p(y) is not normalized. Let e ?S = {e ?l | l 2 S} denote the set of all such pseudo-likelihoods. By multiplying (1) by ? and exponentiating, it can be shown that ?-mixability is exactly equivalent to the requirement that e ?S is convex [2, 15]. And like for the first two expressions of mixability, there is an analogous convexity interpretation for stochastic mixability. In order to define pseudo-likelihoods in the statistical setting, we need to take into account that the predictions f (X) of the predictors in F are not deterministic, but depend on X. Hence we define conditional pseudo-likelihoods p(Y |X) = e ?`(Y,f (X)) . (See also Example 1.) There is no need to introduce a conditional analogue of the super prediction set. Instead, let PF (?) = {e ?`(Y,f (X)) | f 2 F} denote the set of all conditional pseudo-likelihoods. For 2 [0, 1], a convex combination of any two p0 , p1 2 PF (?) can be defined as p (Y |X) = (1 )p0 (Y |X) + p1 (Y |X). And consequently, we may speak of the convex hull co PF (?) = {p | p0 , p1 2 PF (?), 2 [0, 1]} of PF (?). Corollary 3. Let ? > 0. Then ?-stochastic mixability of (`, F, P ? ) is equivalent to the requirement that ? ? ? ? min E ?1 ln p(Y |X) = min E ?1 ln p(Y |X) . (6) p2PF (?) p2co PF (?) Proof. This follows directly from Theorem 2 after rewriting it in terms of conditional pseudolikelihoods. Notice that the left-hand side of (6) equals E[`(Y, f ? (X))], which does not depend on ?. Equation 6 expresses that the convex hull operator has no effect, which means that PF (?) looks convex from the perspective of P ? . See Figure 1 for an illustration for log-loss. Thus we obtain an interpretation of ?-stochastic mixability as effective convexity of the set of pseudo-likelihoods PF (?) with respect to P ? . Figure 1 suggests that f ? should be unique if the loss is stochastically mixable, which is almost right. It is in fact the loss `(Y, f ? (X)) of f ? that is unique (almost surely): Corollary 4. If (`, F, P ? ) is stochastically mixable and there exist f ? , g ? 2 F such that E[`(Y, f ? (X))] = E[`(Y, g ? (X))] = minf 2F E[`(Y, f (X))], then `(Y, f ? (X)) = `(Y, g ? (X)) almost surely. Proof. Let ?(f ? ) = ?(g ? ) = 1/2. Then, by Theorem 2 and (strict) convexity of ln, ? ? ? 1 1 1 ln e ?`(Y,f (X)) + e ?`(Y,g (X)) min E[`(Y, f (X))] ? E f 2F ? 2 2 ? 1 1 ? E `(Y, f ? (X)) + `(Y, g ? (X)) = min E[`(Y, f (X))]. f 2F 2 2 5 Hence both inequalities must hold with equality. For the second inequality this is only the case if `(Y, f ? (X)) = `(Y, g ? (X)) almost surely, which was to be shown. 4 When Mixability and Stochastic Mixability Are the Same Having observed that mixability and stochastic mixability of a loss share several common features, we now show that in specific cases the two concepts even coincide. More specifically, Theorem 5 below shows that a loss ` (meeting two requirements) is ?-mixable if and only if it is ?-stochastically mixable relative to Ffull , the set of all functions from X to A, and all distributions P ? . To avoid measurability issues, we will assume that X is countable throughout this section. The two conditions we assume of ` are both related to its set of pseudo-likelihoods := e ?S , which was defined in Section 3. The first condition is that is closed. When Y is infinite, we mean closed relative to the topology for the supremum norm kpk1 = supy2Y |p(y)|. The second, more technical condition is that is pre-supportable. That is, for every pseudo-likelihood p 2 , its pre-image s 2 S (defined for each y 2 Y by s(y) := ?1 ln p(y)) is supportable. Here, a point s 2 S is supportable if it is optimal for some distribution PY? over Y ? that is, if there exists a distribution PY? over Y such that EPY? [s(Y )] ? EPY? [t(Y )] for all t 2 S. This is the case, for example, for all proper losses [17]. We say (`, F) is ?-stochastically mixable if (`, F, P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable for all distributions P ? on X ? Y. Theorem 5. Suppose X is countable. Let ? > 0 and suppose ` is a loss such that its pseudolikelihood set e ?S is closed and pre-supportable. Then (`, Ffull ) is ?-stochastically mixable if and only if ` is ?-mixable. This result generalizes Theorem 9 and Lemma 11 by Chernov et al. [15] from finite Y to arbitrary continuous Y, which they raised as an open question. In their setting, there are no explanatory variables x, which may be emulated in our framework by letting X contain only a single element. Their conditions also imply (by their Lemma 10) that the loss ` is proper, which implies that e ?S is closed and pre-supportable. We note that for proper losses ?-mixability is especially well understood [19]. The proof of Theorem 5 is broken into two lemmas (the proofs of which are in the supplementary material). The first establishes conditions for when mixability implies stochastic mixability, borrowing from a similar result for log-loss by Li [12]. Lemma 6. Let ? > 0. Suppose the Bayes optimal predictor fB? (x) 2 arg mina2A E[`(Y, a)|X = x] is in the model: fB? = f ? 2 F. If ` is ?-mixable, then (`, F, P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable. The second lemma shows that stochastic mixability implies mixability. Lemma 7. Suppose the conditions of Theorem 5 are satisfied. If (`, Ffull ) is ?-stochastically mixable, then it is ?-mixable. The above two lemmata are sufficient to prove the equivalence of stochastic and ordinary mixability. Proof of Theorem 5. In order to show that ?-mixability of ` implies ?-stochastic mixability of (`, Ffull ) we note that the Bayes-optimal predictor fB? for any ` and P ? must be in Ffull and so Lemma 6 implies (`, Ffull , P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable for any distribution P ? . Conversely, that ?-stochastic mixability of (`, Ffull ) implies the ?-mixability of ` follows immediately from Lemma 7. Example 2 (if F is not full). In this case, we can have either stochastic mixability without ordinary mixability or the converse. Consider a loss function ` that is not mixable in the ordinary sense, e.g. ` = `0/1 , the 0/1-loss [6], and a set F consisting of just a single predictor. Then clearly ` is stochastically mixable relative to F. This is, of course, a trivial case. We do not know whether we can have stochastic mixability without ordinary mixability in nontrivial cases, and plan to investigate this for future work. For the converse, we know that it does hold in nontrivial cases: consider the log-loss `log which is 1-mixable in the standard sense (Example 1). Let Y = {0, 1} and let the model F be a set of conditional probability mass functions {f? | ? 2 ?} where ? is the 6 set of all classifiers, i.e. all functions X ! Y, and f? (y | x) := e `0/1 (y,?(x)) /(1 + e 1 ) where `0/1 (y, y?) = 1{y 6= y?} is the 0/1-loss. Then log-loss becomes an affine function of 0/1-loss: for each ? 2 ?, `log (Y, f? (X)) = `0/1 (Y, ?(X)) + C with C = ln(1 + e 1 ) [14]. Because 0/1-loss is not standard mixable, by Theorem 5, 0/1-loss is not stochastically mixable relative to ?. But then we must also have that log-loss is not stochastically mixable relative to F. 5 Stochastic Mixability and the Margin Condition The excess risk of any f compared to f ? is the mean of the excess loss `(Y, f (X)) ? ? d(f, f ? ) = E `(Y, f (X)) `(Y, f ? (X)) . `(Y, f ? (X)): We also define the expected square of the excess loss, which is closely related to its variance: ? ?2 V (f, f ? ) = E `(Y, f (X)) `(Y, f ? (X)) . Note that, for 0/1-loss, V (f, f ? ) = P ? (f (X) 6= f ? (X)) is the probability that f and f ? disagree. The margin condition, introduced by Mammen and Tsybakov [7, 8] for 0/1-loss, is satisfied with constants ? 1 and c0 > 0 if c0 V (f, f ? )? ? d(f, f ? ) for all f 2 F. (7) Unlike Mammen and Tsybakov, we do not assume that F necessarily contains the Bayes predictor, which minimizes the risk over all possible predictors. The same generalization has been used in the context of model selection by Arlot and Bartlett [20]. Remark 1. In some practical cases, the margin condition only holds for a subset of the model such that V (f, f ? ) ? ?0 for some ?0 > 0 [8]. In such cases, the discussion below applies to the same subset. Stochastic mixability, as we have defined it, is directly related to the margin condition for the case ? = 1. In order to relate it to other values of ?, we need a little more flexibility: for given ? 0 and (`, F, P ? ), we define F? = {f ? } [ {f 2 F | d(f, f ? ) ?}, (8) which excludes a band of predictors that approximate the best predictor in the model to within excess risk ?. Theorem 8. Suppose a loss ` takes values in [0, V ] for 0 < V < 1. Fix a model F and distribution P ? . Then the margin condition (7) is satisfied if and only if there exists a constant C > 0 such that, for all ? > 0, (`, F? , P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable for ? = C?(? 1)/? . In particular, if the margin condition is satisfied with constants ? and c0 , we can take C = min 1/? V 2 c0 eV V , 1 V (? 1 1)/? . This theorem gives a new interpretation of the margin condition as the rate at which ? has to go to 0 when the model F is approximated by ?-stochastically mixable models F? . By the following corollary, proved in the additional material, stochastic mixability of the whole model F is equivalent to the best case of the margin condition. Corollary 9. Suppose ` takes values in [0, V ] for 0 < V < 1. Then (`, F, P ? ) is stochastically mixable if and only if there exists a constant c0 > 0 such that the margin condition (7) is satisfied with ? = 1. 6 Connection to Uniform O(log |Fn |/n) Rates Let ` be a bounded loss function. Assume that, at sample size n, an estimator f? (statistical learning algorithm) is used based on a finite model Fn , where we allow the size |Fn | to grow with n. Let, for all n, Pn be any set of distributions on X ? Y such that for all P ? 2 Pn , the generalized margin condition (7) holds for ? = 1 and uniform constant c0 not depending on n, with model Fn . In the case of 0/1-loss, the results of e.g. Tsybakov [8] suggest that there exist estimators 7 f?n : (X ? Y)n ! Fn that achieve a convergence rate of O(log |Fn |/n), uniformly for all P ? 2 P; that is, sup EP ? [d(f?n , f ? )] = O(log |Fn |/n). (9) P ? 2Pn This can indeed be proven, for general loss functions, using Theorem 4.2. of Zhang [21] and with f?n set to Zhang?s information-risk-minimization estimator (to see this, at sample size n apply Zhang?s result with ? set to 0 and a prior ? that is uniform on Fn , so that log ?(f ) = log |Fn | for any f 2 Fn ). By Theorem 8, this means that, for any bounded loss function `, if, for some ? > 0, all n, we have that (`, Fn , P ? ) is ?-stochastically mixable for all P ? 2 Pn , then Zhang?s estimator satisfies (9). Hence, for bounded loss functions, stochastic mixability implies a uniform O(log |Fn |/n) rate. A connection between stochastic mixability and fast rates is also made by Gr?unwald [14], who introduces some slack in the definition (allowing the number 1 in (3) to be slightly larger) and uses the convexity interpretation from Section 3 to empirically determine the largest possible value for ?. His Theorem 2, applied with a slack set to 0, implies an in-probability version of Zhang?s result above. Example 3. We just explained that, if ` is stochastically mixable relative to Fn , then uniform O(log |Fn |/n) rates can be achieved. We now illustrate that if this is not the case, then, at least if ` is 0/1-loss or if ` is log-loss, uniform O(log |Fn |/n) rates cannot be achieved in general. To see this, let ?n be a finite set of classifiers ? : X ! Y, Y = {0, 1} and let ` be 0/1-loss. Let for each n, f?n : (X ? Y)n ! Fn be some arbitrary estimator. It is known from e.g. the work of Vapnik [22] that for every sequence of estimators f?1 , f?2 , . . ., there exist a sequence ?1 , ?2 , . . ., all finite, and a sequence P1? , P2? , . . . such that EPn? [d(f?n , f ? )] ! 1. log |?n |/n Clearly then, by Zhang?s result above, there cannot be an ? such that for all n, (`, ?n , Pn? ) is ?stochastically mixable. This establishes that if stochastic mixability does not hold, then uniform rates of O(log |Fn |/n) are not achievable in general for 0/1-loss. By the construction of Example 2, we can modify ?n into a set of corresponding log-loss predictors Fn so that the log-loss `log becomes an affine function of the 0/1-loss; thus, there still is no ? such that for all n, (`log , Fn , Pn? ) is ?-mixable, and the sequence of estimators still cannot achieve uniform a O(log |Fn |/n) rate with log-loss either. 7 Discussion ? Related Work Let us now return to the summary of our contributions which we provided as items (a)?(g) in ?1. We note that slight variations of our formula (3) for stochastic mixability already appear in [14] (but there no connections to ordinary mixability are made) and [15] (but there it is just a tool for the worst-case sequential setting, and no connections to fast rates in statistical learning are made). Equation 3 looks completely different from the margin condition, yet results connecting the two, somewhat similar to (a), albeit very implicitly, already appear in [23] and [24]. Also, the paper by Gr?unwald [14] contains a connection between the margin condition somewhat similar to Theorem 8, but involving a significantly weaker version of stochastic mixability in which the inequality (3) only holds with some slack. Result (b) is trivial given Definition 2; (c) is a consequence of Theorem 4.2. of [21] when combined with (a) (see Section 6). Result (d) (Theorem 5) is a significant extension of a similar result by Chernov et al. [15]. Yet, our proof techniques and interpretation are completely different from those in [15]. Result (e), Example 3, is a direct consequence of (a). Result (f) (Theorem 2) is completely new, but the proof is partly based on ideas which already appear in [12] in a log-loss/MDL context, and (g) is a consequence of (f). Finally, Corollary 3 can be seen as analogous to the results of Lee et al. [25], who showed the role of convexity of F for fast rates in the regression setting with squared loss. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the ARC and by NICTA, funded by the Australian Government. It was also supported in part by the IST Programme of the European Community, under the PASCAL Network of Excellence, IST-2002-506778, and by NWO Rubicon grant 680-50-1112. 8 References [1] O. Bousquet, S. Boucheron, and G. Lugosi. Introduction to statistical learning theory. In O. Bousquet, U. von Luxburg, and G. 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Spectral learning of linear dynamics from generalised-linear observations with application to neural population data Lars Buesing? , Jakob H. Macke?,? , Maneesh Sahani Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London, London, UK {lars, jakob, maneesh}@gatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract Latent linear dynamical systems with generalised-linear observation models arise in a variety of applications, for instance when modelling the spiking activity of populations of neurons. Here, we show how spectral learning methods (usually called subspace identification in this context) for linear systems with linear-Gaussian observations can be extended to estimate the parameters of a generalised-linear dynamical system model despite a non-linear and non-Gaussian observation process. We use this approach to obtain estimates of parameters for a dynamical model of neural population data, where the observed spike-counts are Poisson-distributed with log-rates determined by the latent dynamical process, possibly driven by external inputs. We show that the extended subspace identification algorithm is consistent and accurately recovers the correct parameters on large simulated data sets with a single calculation, avoiding the costly iterative computation of approximate expectation-maximisation (EM). Even on smaller data sets, it provides an effective initialisation for EM, avoiding local optima and speeding convergence. These benefits are shown to extend to real neural data. 1 Introduction Latent linear dynamical system (LDS) models, also known as Kalman-filter models or linearGaussian state-space models, provide an important framework for modelling shared temporal structure in multivariate time series. If the observation process is linear with additive Gaussian noise, then there are many established options for parameter learning. Inference of the dynamical state in such a model can be performed exactly by Kalman smoothing [1] and so the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm may be used to find a local maximum of the likelihood [2]. An alternative is the spectral approach known as subspace identification (SSID) in the engineering literature [3, 4, 5]. This is a method-of-moments-based estimation process, which, like other spectral methods, provides estimators that are non-iterative, consistent and do not suffer from the problems of multiple optima that dog maximum-likelihood (ML) learning in practice. However, they are not as statistically efficient as the true (global) ML estimator. Thus, a combined approach often produces the best results, with the SSID-based parameter estimates being used to initialise the EM iterations. Many real-world data sets, however, are not well described by a linear-Gaussian output process. Of particular interest to us here are multiple neural spike-trains measured simultaneously by arrays of electrodes [6, 7], which are best treated either as multivariate point-processes or, after binning, as a time series of vectors of small integers. In either case the event rates must be positive, precluding a linear mapping from the Gaussian latent process, and the noise distribution cannot accurately be ? These authors contributed equally. ? Current Affiliation: Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics and Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience T?ubingen 1 modelled as normal. Similar point-process or count data may arise in many other settings, such as seismology or text modelling. More generally, we are interested in the broad class of generalisedlinear output models (defined by analogy to the generalised-linear regression model [8]), where the expected value of an observation is given by a monotonic function of the latent Gaussian process, with an arbitrary (most frequently exponential-family) distribution of observations about this mean. For such models exact inference, and therefore exact EM, is not possible. Instead, approximate ML learning relies on either Monte-Carlo or deterministic approximations to the posterior. Such methods may be computationally intensive, suffer from varying degrees of approximation error, and are subject to the same concerns about multiple likelihood optima as is the linear-Gaussian case2 Thus, a consistent spectral method is likely to be of particular value for such models. In this paper we show how the SSID approach may be extended to yield consistent estimators for generalisedlinear-output LDS (gl-LDS) models. In experiments with simulated and real neural data, we show that these estimators may be better than those provided by approximate EM when given sufficient data. Even when data are few, the approach provides a valuable initialisation to approximate EM. 2 Theory We briefly review the Ho-Kalman SSID algorithm [10] for linear-Gaussian LDS models, before extending it to the gl-LDS case. Using this framework, we derive and then evaluate an algorithm to fit models of Poisson-distributed count data with log-rates generated by an LDS. 2.1 SSID for LDS models with linear-Gaussian observations Let q-dimensional observations yt , t ? {1, . . . , T } depend on a p-dimensional latent state xt , described by a linear first-order auto-regressive process with Gaussian initial distribution and Gaussian innovations: x1 ? N (x0 , Q0 ) xt+1 | xt ? N (Axt , Q) (1) zt = Cxt + d yt | zt ? N (zt , R). Here, x0 and Q0 are the mean and covariance of the initial state and Q is the covariance of the innovations. The dynamics matrix A models the temporal dependence of the process x. The variable zt of dimension q is defined as an affine function of the latent state xt , parametrised by the loading matrix C and the mean parameter d. Given zt , observations are independently distributed around this value with covariance R. Furthermore let ? := limt?? Cov[xt ] denote the covariance of the stationary marginal distribution if the system is stable (i.e. if the spectral radius of A is < 1). Provided the generative model is stationary (i.e., x0 = 0 and Q0 = ?), SSID algorithms yield consistent estimates of the parameters A, C, Q, R, d without iteration. We adopt an approach to SSID based on the Ho-Kalman method [10, 4]. This algorithm takes as input the empirical estimate of the so-called ?future-past Hankel matrix? H which is defined as the cross-covariance between time-lagged vectors yt+ (the ?future?) and yt? (the ?past?) of the observed data: ? ? ? ? yt yt?1 .. ? H := Cov[yt+ , yt? ] yt+ := ? yt? := ? ... ? . . yt+k?1 yt?k The parameter k is called the Hankel size and has to be chosen so that k ? p. The key to SSID is that H (which is independent of t as stationarity is assumed) has rank equal to the dimensionality p of the linear dynamical state. Indeed, it is straightforward to show that the Hankel matrix can be decomposed in terms of the model parameters A, C, ?, H = [C ? (CA)? . . . (CAk?1 )? ]? ? [A?C ? A2 ?C ? . . . Ak ?C ? ]. (2) The SSID algorithm first takes the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the empirical estimate b of H to recover a two-part factorisation as in (2) given a user-defined latent dimensionality p (a H ? From this low-rank suitable p may be estimated by inspection of the singular value spectrum of H). 2 A recent paper [9] has argued that the log-likelihood of a model with Poisson count observations is concave?however, the result therein showed only a necessary condition for concavity of the expected joint log-likelihood optimised in the M-step. 2 b the model parameters A, C as well as the covariances Q and R can be found by approximation to H linear regression and by solving an algebraic Riccati equation; d is given simply by the empirical mean of the data. However, this specific procedure works only for linear systems with Gaussian observations and innovations, and not for models which feature non-linear transformations or nonGaussian observation models. Indeed, we find that linear SSID methods can yield poor results when applied directly to count-process data. Although SSID techniques have been developed for observations that are Gaussian-distributed around a mean that is a nonlinear function of the latent state [5], we are unaware of SSID methods that address arbitrary observation models. 2.2 SSID for gl-LDS models by moment conversion Consider now the gl-LDS in which the Gaussian observation process of model (1) is replaced by the following more general observation model. We assume yt,i ? yt,j | zt ; i.e. observation dimensions are independent given zt . Further, let yt,i | zt be arbitrarily distributed around a (known) monotonic element-wise nonlinear mapping f (?) such that E[yt |zt ] = f (zt ). Following the theory of generalised linear modelling, we also assume that the variance of the observation distribution is a (known) function V (?) of its mean.3 Our extension to SSID for such models is based on the following idea. The variables z1 , . . . , zT are jointly normal, so in principle we can apply standard SSID algorithms to z. Although z is unobserved, we can use the fact that the observation model dictates a computable relationship between the moments of y and those of z. This allows us to determine the future-past Hankel matrix of z from the moments of y, which can then be fed into standard SSID algorithms. Consider the covariance matrix Cov[y? ] of the combined 2kq-dimensional future-past vector y? which is defined by stacking y+ and y? (here and henceforth we drop the subscripts t as unnecessary given the assumed stationarity of the process). Denote the mean and covariance matrix of the normal distribution of z? (defined analogously to y? ) by ? and ?. We then have, E[yi? ] = Ez [f (zi? )] =: ?(?i , ?ii ) (3) E[(yi? )2 ] = Ez [Ey|z [(yi? )2 ]] = Ez [f (zi? )2 + V (f (zi? ))] =: ?(?i , ?ii ). (4) The functions ?(?) and ?(?) are given by Gaussian integrals with mean ?i and variance ?ii over the functions f (?) and f 2 (?) + V (f (?)), respectively. For off-diagonal second moments we have (i 6= j): E[yi? yj? ] = Ez [Ey|z [yi? ] ? Ey|z [yj? ]] = Ez [f (zi? )f (zj? )] =: ?(?i , ?ii , ?j , ?jj , ?ij ). (5) Equations (3)-(5) are a 4kq + kq(2kq ? 1) system of non-linear equations in 4kq + kq(2kq ? 1) unknowns ?, ? (with symmetric ? = ?? ). The equations above can be solved efficiently by separately solving one 2-dimensional system (equations 3-4) for each pair of unknowns ?i , ?ii , ?i ? {1, . . . , kq}. Once the ?i and ?ii are known, equation (5) reduces to a 1-dimensional nonlinear equation for ?ij for each pair of indices (i < j). The upper-right block of the covariance matrix ? then provides an estimate of the future-past Hankel matrix Cov[z+ , z? ] which can be decomposed as in standard Ho-Kalman SSID. 2.3 SSID for Poisson dynamical systems (PLDSID) We now consider in greater detail a special case of the gl-LDS model, which is of particular interest in neuroscience applications. The observations in this model are (when conditioned on the latent state) Poisson-distributed with a mean that is exponential in the output of the dynamical system, yt,i | zt,i ? Poisson[exp(zt,i )]. We call this model, which is a special case of a Log-Gaussian Cox Process [11], a Poisson Linear Dynamical System (PLDS). PLDS and close variants have recently been applied for modelling multi-electrode recordings [12, 13, 14, 15]. In these applications, yt,i models the spike-count of neuron i in time-bin t and its log-firing-rate (which we will refer to as the ?input to neuron i?) is given by zt,i . Estimation of the model parameters ? = (A, C, Q, x0 , Q0 , d) often depends on approximate likelihood maximisation, using EM with an approximate E-step [16, 9]. The exponential nonlinearity ensures that the posterior distribution p(x1...,T |y1...,T , ?) is a log-concave function of x1...,T [17], making its mode easy to find and justifying unimodal approximations (such as that of Laplace). However, the typical data likelihood is nonetheless multimodal and the approximations may introduce bias in estimation [18]. 3 Our method readily generalises to models in which each dimension i has different nonlinearities fi and Vi . 3 1 0.5 0 1 20 40 transformed 1 0.5 0 1 20 # SV 40 10 2.75 # training trials 3.5 SV subspace angle 0.25 log 0 1 20 40 F 1.5 2 1 0.5 # SV E 0.5 0 true # SV D difference of EVs C normed SV B normed SV observed normed SV A 0.75 0 2 log 10 2.75 # training trials 3.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 1 10 # SV 20 0 1 10 20 # SV Figure 1: Moment conversion uncovers low-rank structure in artificial data. A) Time-lagged covariance matrix Cov[yt+1 , yt ] and the singular value (SV) spectrum of the full Hankel matrix H = Cov[y+ , y? ] computed from the observed count data (artificial data set I). The spectrum decays gradually. B) Same as A) but after moment conversion. The transformed Hankel matrix now exhibits a clear cut-off in the spectrum, indicative of low underlying rank. C) Same as A) and B) but computed from the (ground truth) log-rates z, illustrating the true low-rank structure in the data. D) Summed absolute difference of the eigenvalue spectra of the ground truth dynamics matrix A and the one identified by PLDSID. The difference decreases with increasing data set size, indicating that PLDSID estimates are consistent. E) Same as C) but for the angle between the subspaces spanned by the loading matrix of the ground truth and estimated models. F) SV spectrum of the Hankel matrix of multi-electrode data before (left) and after (right) moment conversion. Under the PLDS model, the equations (3)-(5) can be solved analytically (see also [19] and the supplementary material for details), 1 ?i = 2 log(mi ) ? log(Sii + m2i ? mi ) (6) 2 ?ii = log(Sii + m2i ? mi ) ? log(m2i ) (7) ?ij = log(Sij + mi mj ) ? log(mi mj ), (8) where mi and Sij denote the empirical estimates of E[yi? ] and Cov[yi? , yj? ], respectively. One can see that the above equations do not have solutions if any one of the terms in the logarithms is non-positive, which may happen with finitely sampled moments or a misspecified model. We therefore scale the matrix S (by left and right multiplication with the same diagonal matrix) such that all Fano factors that are initially smaller than 1 are set to a given threshold (in simulations we used 1 + 10?2 ). This procedure ensures that there exists a unique solution (?, ?) to the moment conversion (6)-(8). It is still the case that the resulting matrix ? might not be positive semidefinite [20], but this can be rectified by finding its eigendecomposition, thresholding the eigenvalues (EVs) and then reconstructing ?. For sufficiently large data sets generated from a ?true? PLDS model, observed Fano factors will be greater than one with high probability. In such cases, the moment conversion asymptotically yields the unique correct moments ? and ? of the Gaussian log-rates z. Assuming stationarity, the HoKalman SSID yields consistent estimates of A, C, Q, d given the true ? and ?. Hence, the proposed two-stage method yields consistent estimates of the parameters A, C, Q, d of a stationary PLDS. In the remainder, we call this algorithm PLDSID. It is often of interest to model the conditional distribution of the observables y given some external, observed covariate or ?input? u. In neuroscience, for instance, u might be a sensory stimulus influencing retinal [14] or other sensory spiking activity. Fortunately, provided that the external inputs are Gaussian-distributed and perturb the dynamics linearly, PLDSID can be extended to identify the 4 parameters of this augmented model. Let ut denote the r-dimensional observed external input at time t, and assume that u1 , . . . , uT are jointly normal and influence the latent state of the dynamical process linearly and instantaneously (through a p ? r matrix B): xt+1 | xt , ut ? N (Axt + But , Q), The dynamical state xt is then observed through a generalised-linear process as before, and we define future-past vectors for all relevant time series. In this case, the N4SID algorithm [3] can perform subspace identification based on the joint covariance of u? and z? . Although this covariance is not observed directly in the gl-LDS case, our assumptions make u? and z? jointly normal and so we can use moment transformation again to estimate the required covariance from the observed covariance of u? and y? . For the Poisson model with exponential nonlinearity, this transformation remains closed-form, and in combination with N4SID yields consistent estimates of the PLDS parameters and the input-coupling matrix B. 4 Further details are provided in the supplementary material. 3 Results We investigated the properties of the proposed PLDSID algorithm in numerical experiments, using both artificial data and multi-electrode recordings of neural activity. 3.1 PLDSID infers the correct parameters given sufficiently large synthetic data sets We used three artificial data sets to evaluate our algorithm, each consisting of 200 time-series (?trials?), with each trial being of length T = 100 time steps. Time-series were generated by sampling from a stationary ground truth PLDS with p = 10 latent and q = 25 observed dimensions. Count averages across time-bins and neurons ranged from 0.15 to 0.2, corresponding to 15?20 Hz if the time-step size dt is taken to be 10 ms (the binning used for the multi-electrode recordings, see below). The dynamics matrices A had eigenvalues corresponding to auto-correlation time constants ranging from < 1 time step (data set III), through 3 dt (data set I) to 20 dt (data set II). The loading matrices C were generated from a matrix with orthonormal columns and by a subsequent scaling with 12.5 (data set I) or 5 (data sets II and III). This resulted in instantaneous correlations that were comparable to (average absolute correlation coefficient data set I: c? = 2 ? 10?2 ) or smaller than (data sets II, III: c? = 3.5 ? 10?3 ) those observed in the cortical multi-electrode recordings used below (? c = 2.2 ? 10?2 ). Hence, all our artificial data sets either roughly match (data sets I, II) or substantially underestimate (data set III) the correlation-structure of typical cortical multi-cell recordings. Additionally, we generated a data set for identifying PLDS models with external input by driving the ground truth PLDS of data set II with a 3 dimensional Gaussian AR(1) process ut ; the coupling matrix B was generated such that But had the same covariance as the innovations Q. A Hankel size k = 10 was used for all experiments with artificial data. We first illustrate the moment conversion defined by equations (6)-(8) on artificial data set I. Fig. 1A shows the time-lagged cross-covariance Cov[yt+1 , yt ] as well as the singular value (SV) spectrum of the full future-past Hankel matrix H = Cov[y+ , y? ] (normalised such that the largest SV is 1), both estimated from 200 trials, with a Hankel size of k = 10. The raw spectrum gradually decays towards small values but does not show a clear low-rank structure of the future-past Hankel matrix H. In contrast, Fig. 1B shows the output of the moment transformation yielding an approximation of the cross-covariance Cov[zt+1 , zt ] of the underlying inputs. Further the SV spectrum of the full, transformed future-past Hankel matrix Cov[z+ , z? ] is shown. The latter is dominated by only a few SVs, whose number matches the dimension of the ground truth system p = 10, clearly indicating a low-rank structure. On this synthetic data set, we also have access to the underlying inputs. One can see that the transformed Hankel matrix Fig. 1B as well as its SV spectrum are close to the ones computed from the underlying inputs shown in Fig. 1C. We also evaluated the accuracy of the parameters identified by PLDSID as a function of the training set size. Fig. 1D shows the difference between the spectra (i.e., the summed absolute differences between sorted eigenvalues) of the identified and the ground truth dynamics matrix A. The spectrum of A is an important characteristic of the model, as it determines the time-constants of the underlying dynamics. It can be seen that the difference between the spectra decreases with increasing data set size (Fig. 1D), indicating that our method asymptotically identifies the correct dynamics. Furthermore, Fig. 1E shows the subspace-angle between the true loading matrix C and the one estimated 4 Again, simply applying SSID to the log of the observed counts does not work as most counts are 0. 5 A artificial data set I B artificial data set II ?3 20 x 10 3 PLDSID+EM FA+EM SSID+EM RAND+EM 0 1 10 performance 8 performance performance artificial data set III ?5 x 10 6 4 D 10 0 0 20 1 200 # EM iterations 400 1 25 # EM iterations neural data, 100 trials E F neural data, 863 trials ?3 ?3 x 10 10 50 # EM iterations neural data, 500 trials ?3 5 C ?4 x 10 x 10 x 10 4.5 4 performance performance performance 6.5 8.5 5 7 1 50 # EM iterations 100 5.75 1 50 # EM iterations 100 1 40 80 # EM iterations Figure 2: PLDSID is a good initialiser for EM. Cosmoothing performance on the training set as a function of the number of EM iterations for different initialisers on various data sets. A) Artificial data set consisting of 200 trials and 25 observed dimensions. EM initialised by PLDSID converges faster and achieves higher training performance than EM initialised with FA, Gaussian SSID or random parameter values. B) Same as A) but for data with lower instantaneous correlations and longer auto-correlation. EM does not improve the performance of PLDSID on this data set. C) Same as A) but for data with negligible temporal correlations and low instantaneous correlations. For this weakly structured data set, PLDSID-EM does not work well. D) 100 trials of multi-electrode recordings with 86 observed dimensions (spike-sorted units). E) Same as D) but of data set size 500 trials, and only using the 40 most active units F) Same as D) but for 863 trials with all 86 units. by PLDS. As for the dynamics spectrum, the identified loading matrix approaches the true one for increasing training set size. Next, we investigated the usefulness of PLDSID as an initialiser for EM. We compared it to 3 different methods, namely initialisation with random parameters (with 20-50 restarts), factor analysis (FA) and Gaussian SSID. The quality of these initialisers was assessed by monitoring performance of the identified parameters as a function of EM iterations after initialisation. Good initial parameter values yield fast convergence of EM in few iterations to high performance values, whereas poor initialisations are characterised by slow convergence and termination of EM in poor local maxima (or, potentially, shallow regions of the likelihood). Fast convergence of EM is an important issue when dealing with large data sets, as EM iterations become computationally expensive (see below). We monitor performance by evaluating the so-called cosmoothing performance on the training data, a measure for cross-prediction performance described elsewhere in detail [21, 15]. This measure yielded more reliable and robust results than computing the likelihood, as the latter cannot be computed exactly and approximations can be numerically unreliable. We evaluated performance on the training set, as we were interested in comparing fitting-performance of the algorithms for the same model, and not the generalisation error of the model itself. Fig. 2A to C show the results of this comparison on three different artificial data sets. On data set I (Fig. 2A), which was designed to have short auto-correlation time constants but pronounced instantaneous correlations between the observed dimensions, PLDSID initialisation leads to superior performance compared to competing methods. For the same number of EM iterations (which is a good proxy of invested computation time, see below), it resulted in better co-smoothing performance. Furthermore, the PLDSID+EM parameters converge to a better local optimum than those initialised by the other methods. Hence, on this data set, our initialisation yields both faster computation time and better final results. The second artificial data set featured smaller instantaneous correlations between dimensions but longer auto-correlation time constants. As can be seen in Fig. 2B, the PLDSID initialisation here yields parameters which are not further improved by EM iterations whereas EM with other initialisations becomes stuck in poor local solutions. 6 By contrast, we found PLDSID not to yield useful parameter values on data sets which do not have temporal correlations (Fig. 2C), and only very small instantaneous correlations across neurons (average instantaneous absolute-correlation c? = 3.5 ? 10?3 ). For this particular data set, PLDSID and Gaussian SSID both yielded poor parameters compared to factor analysis. In general, we observed that PLDSID compares favourably to the other initialisation methods on any data sets we investigated as long as it exhibits shared variability across dimensions and time, and it was observed to work particularly well when correlations were substantial. Fig. 3 shows results for identification of a PLDS model driven by external inputs. The proposed PLDSID method identifies better PLDS parameters, including the coupling matrix B, than alternative methods. Notably, identifying the parameters with the PLDSID-variant that ignores external input (and setting the initial value B = 0 for EM) clearly results in suboptimal parameters. 3.2 Expectation Maximisation initialised by PLDSID identifies better models on neural data We move now to examine the value of PLDSID in providing initial parameter values for subsequent EM iterations on multi-electrode recordings of neural activity. Such data sets are challenging for statistical modelling as they are high-dimensional (on the order of 102 observed dimensions), sparse (on the order of 10 Hz of spiking activity) and show shared variability across time and dimensions. The experimental setup, acquisition and preprocessing of the data set are documented in detail elsewhere [22]. Briefly, spiking activity was acquired from a 96-channel silicon electrode array (Blackrock, Salt Lake City, UT) implanted in motor areas of the cortex of a rhesus macaque performing a delayed center-out reach task. For the analysis presented in this paper, we used data from a single recording session consisting in total of 863 trials, each truncated to be of length 1 s with 86 distinct single and multi-units identified by spike sorting. The data had an average firing rate of 10.7 Hz and it was binned at 10 ms which resulted in 9.9% of bins containing at least one spike. First, we investigated the SV spectrum of the future-past Hankel matrix computed either from the count-observations of the data, or from the inferred underlying inputs (using Hankel size k = 30 and all trials, see Fig. 1F). While we did not observe a marked difference between the two spectra, both spectra indicate that the data can be well described using a small number of singular values. Based on these spectra, we used a dimensionality of q = 10 for subsequent simulations. Next, we compared PLDSID to FA and Gaussian SSID initialisations for EM on two different subsets as well as the whole multi-electrode recording data set. Fig. 2D shows the performance of EM with the different initialisations using a training set of modest size (100 trials, Hankel size k = 10). PLDSID provides the most appropriate initialisation for EM, allowing it to converge rapidly to better parameter values than are found starting from either the FA or SSID estimates. This effect was still more pronounced for a larger training set of 500 trials, but including only the 40 most active neurons from the original data (Fig. 2E, Hankel size k = 30). We also applied all of the methods to the complete data set consisting of 863 trials with all 86 observed neurons (Hankel size k = 30). The results plotted in Fig. 2F indicate that again PLDSID provided the most useful initialisation for EM. Interestingly, on this data set EM with random initialisations eventually identifies parameters with performances comparable to PLDSID+EM. However, random initialisation leads to slow convergence and thus requires substantial computation, as described below. Gaussian SSID yielded poor values for parameters on all data sets, leading EM to terminate in poor local optima after only a few iterations. We note that, because of the use of the Laplace approximation during inference (as well as our non-likelihood performance measure) EM is not guaranteed to increase performance at each iteration, and, in practice, sometimes terminated after rather few iterations. 3.3 PLDSID improves training time by orders of magnitude compared to conventional EM The computational time needed to identify PLDS parameters might prove to be an important issue in practice. For example, when using a PLDS model as part of an algorithm for brain-machine interfacing [12], the parameters must be identified during an experimental session. For multi-electrode recording data of commonly-encountered size, and using our implementation of EM, inference of parameters under these time-constraints would be infeasible. Thus, an ideal parameter initialisation method will not only improve the robustness of the identified parameters, but also reduce the computational time needed for EM convergence. Clearly, the computer time needed will depend on the implementation, hardware and the properties and size of the data used. We used an EM-algorithm with a global-Laplace approximation in the E-step [23, 15], and a conjugate-gradient-based optimi7 ?3 x 10 performance 8 5 PLDSID+EM with input PLDSID+EM w/o input FA+EM SSID+EM RAND+EM 2 1 30 # EM iterations 60 Figure 3: Identification of PLDS models with external inputs. Same as Fig. 2 B) but for an artificial data set which is generated by sampling from a PLDS with external input. Using the variant of PLDSID which also identifies the coupling matrix B yields yields the best parameters. In contrast, using the PLDSID variant which does not estimate B (B is initialised at 0) yields parameters which are of the same quality as alternative methods. sation method in the M-step implemented in Matlab. Alternative methods based on variational approximations or MCMC-sampling have been reported to be more costly than Laplace-EM [13, 24]. For all of the data sets used above, one single EM iteration in our implementation was substantially more costly than parameter initialisation by PLDSID (Fig. 2D: factor 6.4, Fig. 2E: factor 4.0, Fig. 2F: factor 1.4). In addition, EM started with random initialisation still yielded worse performance than with PLDSID initialisation even after 50 iterations (see Figure 2). Thus, even with a conservative estimate, PLDSID initialisation reduces computational cost by at least a factor of 50 compared to random initialisation. Both PLDSID and EM have a time computational complexity which is proportional to the size N T of the data set (where N is the number of trials and T is the trial length). However, in PLDSID, only the cost O(N T pq 2 ) of calculating the Hankel-matrix scales with the data set size (assuming k is of order p). This simple covariance calculation was much cheaper in our experiments than the moment conversion with cost O(pq 2 ) or the SVD with cost O(p3 q 3 ), both of which are independent of the data set size N T . In contrast, each iteration of EM requires at least O(N T (p3 + pq)) time. Therefore, the computational advantage of PLDSID is expected to be especially great for large data sets. This is also the regime where the performance benefit is most pronounced. 4 Discussion We investigated parameter estimation for linear-Gaussian state-space models with generalisedlinear observations and presented a method for parameter identification in such models which builds on the extensive subspace-identification literature for fully Gaussian state-space models. In numerical experiments we studied a special case of the proposed algorithm (PLDSID) for linear state-space models with conditionally Poisson-distributed observations. We showed that PLDSID yields consistent estimates of the model parameters without requiring iterative computation. Although this method generally makes less efficient use of available training data than do maximum likelihood methods, we found that it sometimes outperformed likelihood hill-climbing by EM from random initial conditions in practice (presumably due to optimisation difficulties). Even when this was not the case, EM initialised with the results of PLDSID converged in fewer iterations, and to a better parameter estimate than when it was initialised randomly, or by other methods?an effect seen with multiple artificial and multi-electrode recording data sets. As the practical computational difficulties of parameter estimation (slow convergence and shallow optima in parameter estimation with EM) in this model are substantial, our algorithm facilitates the use of linear state-space models with non-Gaussian observations in practice. While proven here in the Poisson case, the underlying moment-transformation algorithm is flexible and can be applied to a wide range of gl-LDS models. Of particular interest for neural data might be a dynamical system model which precisely reproduced the marginal distribution of integer observations for each observed dimension (by using a ?Discretised Gaussian? [20] as the observation model). By contrast, the need for tractability in sampling or deterministic approximations for inference often limits the range of models in which EM is practical. Acknowledgements Supported by the Gatsby Charitable Foundation; an EU Marie Curie Fellowship to JHM (hosted by MS); DARPA REPAIR N66001-10-C-2010 and NIH CRCNS R01NS054283 to MS; as well as the Bernstein Center T?ubingen funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; FKZ: 01GQ1002). We would like to thank Krishna V. Shenoy and members of his laboratory for many useful discussions as well as for generously sharing their data with us. 8 References [1] R. E. Kalman and R. S. Bucy. New results in linear filtering and prediction theory. Trans. Am. Soc. Mech. Eng., Series D, Journal of Basic Engineering, 83:95?108, 1961. [2] Z. Ghahramani and G. E. Hinton. Parameter estimation for linear dynamical systems. University of Toronto Technical Report, 6(CRG-TR-96-2), 1996. [3] P. V. Overschee and B. D. Moor. N4sid: Subspace algorithms for the identification of combined deterministic-stochastic systems. Automatica, 30(1):75?93, 1994. [4] T. Katayama. Subspace methods for system identification. Springer Verlag, 2005. [5] H. Palanthandalam-Madapusi, S. Lacy, J. Hoagg, and D. Bernstein. Subspace-based identification for linear and nonlinear systems. In Proceedings of the American Control Conference, 2005, pp. 2320?2334, 2005. [6] E. N. Brown, R. E. Kass, and P. P. Mitra. Multiple neural spike train data analysis: state-ofthe-art and future challenges. Nat Neurosci, 7(5):456?61, 2004. [7] M. M. Churchland, B. M. Yu, M. Sahani, and K. V. Shenoy. Techniques for extracting singletrial activity patterns from large-scale neural recordings. Curr Opin Neurobiol, 17(5):609?618, 2007. [8] P. McCulloch and J. Nelder. Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall, London, 1989. [9] K. Yuan and M. Niranjan. Estimating a state-space model from point process observations: a note on convergence. Neural Comput, 22(8):1993?2001, 2010. [10] B. L. Ho and R. E. Kalman. Effective construction of linear state-variable models from input/output functions. Regelungstechnik, 14(12):545?548, 1966. [11] J. M?ller, A. Syversveen, and R. Waagepetersen. Log gaussian cox processes. Scand J Stat, 25(3):451?482, 1998. [12] V. Lawhern, W. Wu, N. Hatsopoulos, and L. Paninski. Population decoding of motor cortical activity using a generalized linear model with hidden states. J Neurosci Methods, 189(2):267? 280, 2010. [13] A. Z. Mangion, K. Yuan, V. Kadirkamanathan, M. Niranjan, and G. Sanguinetti. Online variational inference for state-space models with point-process observations. Neural Comput, 23(8):1967?1999, 2011. [14] M. Vidne, Y. Ahmadian, J. Shlens, J. Pillow, J. Kulkarni, A. Litke, E. Chichilnisky, E. Simoncelli, and L. Paninski. Modeling the impact of common noise inputs on the network activity of retinal ganglion cells. J Comput Neurosci, 2011. [15] J. H. Macke, L. B?using, J. P. Cunningham, B. M. Yu, K. V. Shenoy, and M. Sahani. Empirical models of spiking in neural populations. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, vol. 24. Curran Associates, Inc., 2012. [16] J. Kulkarni and L. Paninski. Common-input models for multiple neural spike-train data. Network, 18(4):375?407, 2007. [17] L. Paninski. Maximum likelihood estimation of cascade point-process neural encoding models. Network, 15(4):243?262, 2004. [18] R. E. Turner and M. Sahani. Two problems with variational expectation maximisation for time-series models. In D. Barber, A. T. Cemgil, and S. Chiappa, eds., Inference and Learning in Dynamic Models. Cambridge University Press, 2011. [19] M. Krumin and S. Shoham. Generation of Spike Trains with Controlled Auto-and CrossCorrelation Functions. Neural Comput, pp. 1?23, 2009. [20] J. Macke, P. Berens, A. Ecker, A. Tolias, and M. Bethge. Generating spike trains with specified correlation coefficients. Neural Comput, 21(2):397?423, 2009. [21] B. M. Yu, J. P. Cunningham, G. Santhanam, S. I. Ryu, K. V. Shenoy, and M. Sahani. Gaussianprocess factor analysis for low-dimensional single-trial analysis of neural population activity. J Neurophysiol, 102(1):614?635, 2009. [22] M. M. Churchland, B. M. Yu, S. Ryu, G. Santhanam, and K. V. Shenoy. Neural variability in premotor cortex provides a signature of motor preparation. J Neurosci, 26(14):3697?3712, 2006. [23] L. Paninski, Y. Ahmadian, D. Ferreira, S. Koyama, K. Rahnama Rad, M. Vidne, J. Vogelstein, and W. Wu. A new look at state-space models for neural data. J Comput Neurosci, 29:107?126, 2010. [24] K. Yuan, M. Girolami, and M. Niranjan. Markov chain monte carlo methods for state-space models with point process observations. Neural Comput, 24(6):1462?1486, 2012. 9
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Bayesian nonparametric models for bipartite graphs Franc?ois Caron INRIA IMB - University of Bordeaux Talence, France [email protected] Abstract We develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for random bipartite graphs. The model is based on the theory of completely random measures and is able to handle a potentially infinite number of nodes. We show that the model has appealing properties and in particular it may exhibit a power-law behavior. We derive a posterior characterization, a generative process for network growth, and a simple Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. Our model is shown to be well fitted to several real-world social networks. 1 Introduction The last few years have seen a tremendous interest in the study, understanding and statistical modeling of complex networks [14, 6]. A network is a set if items, called vertices, with connections between them, called edges. In this article, we shall focus on bipartite networks, also known as twomode, affiliation or collaboration networks [16, 17]. In bipartite networks, items are divided into two different types A and B, and only connections between items of different types are allowed. Examples of this kind can be found in movie actors co-starring the same movie, scientists co-authoring a scientific paper, internet users posting a message on the same forum, people reading the same book or listening to the same song, members of the boards of company directors sitting on the same board, etc. Following the readers-books example, we will refer to items of type A as readers and items of type B as books. An example of bipartite graph is shown on Figure 1(b). An important summarizing quantity of a bipartite graph is the degree distribution of readers (resp. books) [14]. The degree of a vertex in a network is the number of edges connected to that vertex. Degree distributions of real-world networks are often strongly non-Poissonian and exhibit a power-law behavior [15]. A bipartite graph can be represented by a set of binary variables (zij ) where zij = 1 if reader i has read book j, 0 otherwise. In many situations, the number of available books may be very large and potentially unknown. In this case, a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach can be sensible, by assuming that the pool of books is infinite. To formalize this framework, it will then be convenient to represent the bipartite graph by a collection of atomic measures Zi , i = 1, . . . , n with Zi = ? X zij ??j (1) j=1 where {?j } is the set of books and typically Zi only has a finite set of non-zero zij corresponding to books reader i has read. Griffiths and Ghahramani [8, 9] have proposed a BNP model for such binary random measures. The so-called Indian Buffet Process (IBP) is a simple generative process for the conditional distribution of Zi given Z1 , . . . , Zi?1 . Such process can be constructed by considering that the binary measures Zi are i.i.d. from some random measure drawn from a beta process [19, 10]. It has found several applications for inferring hidden causes [20], choices [7] or features [5]. Teh and Gor?ur [18] proposed a three-parameter extension of the IBP, named stable IBP, that enables to 1 model a power-law behavior for the degree distribution of books. Although more flexible, the stable IBP still induces a Poissonian distribution for the degree of readers. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for bipartite graphs that addresses some of the limitations of the stable IBP, while retaining computational tractability. We assume that each book j is assigned a positive popularity parameter wj > 0. This parameter measures the popularity of the book, larger weights indicating larger probability to be read. Similarly, each reader i is assigned a positive parameter ?i which represents its ability to read books. The higher ?i , the more books the reader i is willing to read. Given the weights wj and ?i , reader i reads book j with probability 1 ? exp(??i wj ). We will consider that the weights wj and/or ?i are the points of a Poisson process with a given L?evy measure. We show that depending on the choice of the L?evy measure, a power-law behavior can be obtained for the degree distribution of books and/or readers. Moreover, using a set of suitably chosen latent variables, we can derive a generative process for network growth, and an efficient Gibbs sampler for approximate inference. We provide illustrations of the fit of the proposed model on several real-world bipartite social networks. Finally, we discuss some potentially useful extensions of our work, in particular to latent factor models. 2 2.1 Statistical Model Completely Random Measures We first provide a brief overview of completely random measures (CRM) [12, 13] before describing the BNP model for bipartite graphs in Section 2.2. Let ? be a measurable space. A CRM is a random measure G such that for any collection of disjoint measurable subsets A1 , . . . , An of ?, the random masses of the subsets G(A1 ), . . . , G(An ) are independent. CRM can be decomposed into a sum of three independent parts: a non-random measure, a countable collection of atoms with fixed locations, and a countable collection of atoms with randoms masses at random locations. In this paper, weP will be concerned with models defined by CRMs with random masses at random locations, ? i.e. G = j=1 wj ??j . The law of G can be characterized in terms of a Poisson process over the point set {(wj , ?j ), j = 1, . . . , ?} ? R+ ? ?. The mean measure ? of this Poisson process is known as the L?evy measure. We will assume in the following that the L?evy measure decomposes as a product of two non-atomic densities, i.e. that G is a homogeneous CRM ?(dw, d?) = ?(w)h(?)dwd? with R h : ? ? [0, +?) and ? h(?)d? = 1. It implies that the locations of the atoms in G are independent of the masses, and are i.i.d. from h, while the masses are distributed according to a Poisson P?process over R+ with mean intensity ?. We will further assume that the total mass G(?) = j=1 wj is positive and finite with probability one, which is guaranteed if the following conditions are satisfied Z ? Z ? ?(w)dw = ? and (1 ? exp(?w))?(w)dw < ? (2) 0 0 and note g(x) its probability density function evaluated at x. We will refer to ? as the L?evy intensity in the following, and to h as the base density of G, and write G ? CRM(?, h). We will also note Z ? ?? (t) = ? log E [exp(?tG(?))] = (1 ? exp(?tw))?(w)dw (3) 0 Z ? ?e? (t, b) = (1 ? exp(?tw))?(w) exp(?bw)dw (4) 0 Z ? ?(n, z) = ?(w)wn e?zw dw (5) 0 As a notable particular example of CRM, we can mention the generalized gamma process (GGP) [1], whose L?evy intensity is given by ? ?(w) = w???1 e?w? ?(1 ? ?) GGP encompasses the gamma process (? = 0), the inverse Gaussian process (? = 0.5) and the stable process (? = 0) as special cases. Table ?? in supplementary material provides the expressions of ?, ? and ? for these processes. 2 2.2 A Bayesian nonparametric model for bipartite graphs Let G ? CRM(?, h) where ? satisfies conditions (2). A draw G takes the form ? X G= wj ??j (6) j=1 where {?j } is the set of books and {wj } the set of popularity parameters of books. For i = 1, . . . , n, let consider the latent exponential process ? X Vi = vij ??j (7) j=1 defined for j = 1, . . . , ? by vij |wj ? Exp(wj ?i ) where Exp(a) denotes the exponential distribution of rate a. The higher wj and/or ?i , the lower vij . We then define the binary process Zi conditionally on Vi by  ? X zij = 1 if vij < 1 (8) Zi = zij ??j with zij = 0 otherwise j=1 By integrating out the latent variables vij we clearly have p(zij = 1|wj , ?i ) = 1 ? exp(??i wj ). Proposition 1 Zi is marginally characterized by a Poisson process over the point set {(?j? ), j = P? 1, . . . , ?} ? ?, of intensity measure ?? (?i )h(?? ). Hence, the total mass Zi (?) = j=1 zij , which corresponds to the total number of books read by reader i is finite with probability one and admits a Poisson(?? (?i )) distribution, where ?? (z) is defined in Equation (3), while the locations ?j? are i.i.d. from h. The proof, which makes use of Campbell?s theorem for point processes [13] is given in supplemen tary material. As an example, for the gamma process we have Zi (?) ? Poisson ? log 1 + ??i . It will be useful in the following to introduce a censored version of the latent process Vi , defined by ? X Ui = uij ??j (9) j=1 where uij = min(vij , 1), for i = 1, . . . , n and j = 1, . . . , ?. Note that Zi can be obtained deterministically from Ui . 2.3 Characterization of the conditional distributions The conditional distribution of G given Z1 , . . . , Zn cannot be obtained in closed form1 . We will make use of the latent process Ui . In this section, we derive the formula for the conditional laws P (U1 , . . . , Un |G), P (U1 , . . . , Un ) and P (G|U1 , . . . , Un ) . Based on these results, we derive in Section 2.4 a generative process and in Section 2.5 a Gibbs sampler for our model, that both rely on the introduction of these latent variables. P? Assume that K books {?1 , . . . , ?K } have appeared. We write Ki = Zi (?) = j=1 zij the degree Pn Pn of reader i (number of books read by reader i) and mj = i=1 Zi ({?j }) = i=1 zij the degree of book j (number of people having read book j). The conditional likelihood of U1 , . . . Un given G is given by ?? ? ? n ? Y K ? Y z z ? P (U1 , . . . Un |G) = ?i ij wj ij exp (??i wj uij )? exp (??i G(?\{?1 , . . . , ?K })) ? ? i=1 j=1 ? ? ! K ! ! ! n n n Y Y m X X Ki j ? = ?i wj exp ?wj ?i (uij ? 1) ? exp ? ?i G(?) (10) i=1 j=1 i=1 i=1 1 In the case where ?i = ?, it is possible to derive P (Z1 , . . . , Zn ) and P (Zn+1 |Z1 , . . . , Zn ) where the random measure G and the latent variables U are marginalized out. This particular case is described in supplementary material. 3 Proposition 2 The marginal distribution P (U1 , . . . Un ) is given by ! " !# K ! n n n Y X Y X P (U1 , . . . Un ) = ?iKi exp ??? ?i h(?j )? mj , ?i uij i=1 i=1 j=1 (11) i=1 where ?? and ? are resp. defined by Eq. (3) and (5). Proof. The proof, detailed in supplementary material, is obtained by an application of the Palm formula for CRMs [3, 11], and is the same as that of Theorem 1 in [2]. Proposition 3 The conditional distribution of G given the latent processes U1 , . . . Un can be expressed as K X G = G? + wj ??j (12) j=1 where G? and (wj ) are mutually independent with ? ? G ? CRM(? , h) ? ? (w) = ?(w) exp ?w n X ! ?i (13) i=1 and the masses are P (wj |rest) = Pn m ?(wj )wj j exp (?wj i=1 ?i Uij ) Pn ?(mj , i=1 ?i uij ) (14) Proof. The proof, based on the application of the Palm formula and detailed in supplementary material, is the same as that of Theorem 2 in [2]. Pn In the case of the GGP, G? is still a GGP of parameters (?? = ?, ? ? = ?, ? ? = ? + i=1 ?i ), while the wj ?s are conditionally gamma distributed, i.e. ! n X wj |rest ? Gamma mj ? ?, ? + ?i uij i=1 Corollary 4 The predictive distribution of Zn+1 given the latent processes U1 , . . . , Un is given by ? Zn+1 = Zn+1 + K X zn+1,j ??j j=1 ? where the zn+1,j are independent of Zn+1 with Pn   ?(mj , ? + ?n+1 + i=1 ?i uij ) Pn zn+1,j |U ? Ber 1 ? ?(mj , ? + i=1 ?i uij ) ? where Ber is the Bernoulli distribution and Zn+1 is a homogeneous Poisson process over ? of intensity measure ??? (?n+1 ) h(?). For the GGP, we have and ? i  h ? ? Poisson ? ? + Pn+1 ?i ? (? + Pn ?i )? i=1 i=1 ? ?   Zn+1 (?) ? ?n+1 ? Poisson ? log 1 + P ?+ n i=1 ?i  ?mj +? ! ?n+1 Pn . zn+1,j |U ? Ber 1 ? 1 + ? + i=1 ?i uij if ? 6= 0 if ? = 0 Finally, we consider the distribution of un+1,j |zn+1,j = 1, u1:n,j . This is given by n X p(un+1,j |zn+1,j = 1, u1:n,j ) ? ?(mj + 1, un+1,j ?n+1 + ?i uij )1un+1,j ?[0,1] (15) i=1 In supplementary material, we show how to sample from this distribution by the inverse cdf method for the GGP. 4 Books A1 A2 A3 B3 B4 B5 ... Reader 1 18 4 14 Reader 2 12 0 8 13 4 Reader 3 16 10 0 0 14 ... 9 6 ... B1 B2 (a) B6 B7 (b) Figure 1: Illustration of the generative process described in Section 2.4. 2.4 A generative process In this section we describe the generative process for Zi given (U1 , . . . , Ui?1 ), G being integrated out. This reinforcement process, where popular books will be more likely to be picked, is reminiscent of the generative process for the beta-Bernoulli process, popularized under the name of the Indian buffet process [8]. Let xij = ? log(uij ) ? 0 be latent positive scores. Consider a set of n readers who successively enter into a library with an infinite number of books. Each reader i = 1, . . . n, has some interest in reading quantified by a positive parameter ?i > 0. The first reader picks a number K1 ? Poisson(?? (?1 )) books. Then he assigns a positive score x1j = ? log(u1j ) > 0 to each of these books, where u1j is drawn from distribution (15). Now consider that reader i enters into the library, and knows about the books read by previous readers and their scores. Let K be the total number of books chosen by the previous i ? 1 readers, and mj the number of times each of the K books has been read. Then for each book j = 1, . . . , K, reader i will choose this book with probability Pi?1 ?(mj , ? + ?i + k=1 ?k ukj ) 1? Pi?1 ?(mj , ? + k=1 ?k ukj ) and then will choose an additional number of Ki+ books where Ki+ ? Poisson ?e? ?i , i?1 X !! ?k k=1 Reader i will then assign a score xij = ? log uij > 0 to each book j he has read, where uij is drawn from (15). Otherwise he will set the default score xij = 0. This generative process is illustrated in Figure 1 together with the underlying bipartite graph . In Figure 2 are represented draws from this generative process with a GGP with parameters ?i = 2 for all i, ? = 1, and different values for ? and ?. 2.5 Gibbs sampling From the results derived in Proposition 3, a Gibbs sampler can be easily derived to approximate the posterior distribution P (G, U |Z). The sampler successively updates U given (w, G? (?)) then (w, G? (?)) given U . We present here the conditional distributions in the GGP case. For i = 1, . . . , n, j = 1, . . . , K, set uij = 1 if zij = 0, otherwise sample uij |zij , wj , ?i ? rExp(?i wj , 1) where rExp(?, a) is the right-truncated exponential distribution of pdf ? exp(??x)/(1 ? exp(??a))1x?[0,a] from which we can sample exactly. For j = 1, . . . , K, sample ! n X wj |U, ?i ? Gamma mj ? ?, ? + ?i uij i=1 Pn and the total mass G (?) follows a distribution g (w) ? g(w) exp (?w i=1 ?i ) where g(w) is the distribution of G(?). In the case of the GGP, g ? (w) is an exponentially tilted stable distribution for which exact samplers exist [4]. P In the particular case of the gamma process, we have the simple n update G? (?) ? Gamma (?, ? + i=1 ?i ) . ? ? 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 30 30 20 40 Books 60 30 80 20 (a) ? = 1, ? = 0 40 Books 60 80 20 (b) ? = 5, ? = 0 5 5 10 10 Readers 5 15 15 20 20 25 25 25 30 30 40 Books 60 80 30 80 20 (d) ? = 2, ? = 0.1 60 15 20 20 40 Books (c) ? = 10, ? = 0 10 Readers Readers Readers 5 Readers Readers 5 40 Books 60 80 (e) ? = 2, ? = 0.5 20 40 Books 60 80 (f) ? = 2, ? = 0.9 Figure 2: Realisations from the generative process of Section 2.4 with a GGP of parameters ? = 2, ? = 1 and various values of ? and ?. 3 Update of ?i and other hyperparameters We may also consider the weight parameters ?i to be unknown and estimate them from the graph. We can assign a gamma prior ?i ? Gamma(a? , b? ) with parameters (a? > 0, b? > 0) and update it conditionally on other variables with ? ? K K X X ?i |G, U ? Gamma ?a? + zij , b? + wj uij + G? (?)? j=1 j=1 In this case, the marginal distribution of Zi (?), hence the degree distribution of books, follows a continuous mixture of Poisson distributions, which offers more flexibility in the modelling. We may also go a step further and consider that there is an infinite number of readers with weights ?i e associated P? to a given CRM ? ? CRM(?? , h? ) and a measurable space of readers ?. We then have ? = i=1 ?i ??ei . This provides a lot of flexibility in the modelling of the distribution of the degree of readers, allowing in particular to obtain a power-law behavior, as shown in Section 5. We focus here on the case where ? is drawn from a generalized gamma process Pn of parameters (?? , ?? , ?? ) for simplicity. Conditionally on (w, G? (?), U ), we have ? = ?? + i=1 ?i ??ei where for i = 1, . . . , n, ? ? K K X X ?i |G, U ? Gamma ? zij ? ?? , ? + wj uij + G? (?)? j=1 j=1  P  K ? and ?? ? CRM(??? , h? ) with ??? (?) = ?? (?) exp ?? w + G (?) . In this case, the j=1 j e is now for j = 1, . . . , K update for (w, G? ) conditional on (U, ?, ?(?)) ! n X ? e wj |U, ? ? Gamma mj ? ?, ? + ?i uij + ? (?) i=1 P  n ? e and G ? CRM(? , h) with ? (w) = ?(w) exp ?w . Note that i=1 ?i + ? (?) there is now symmetry in the treatment of books/readers. For the scale parameter ? of the GGP, we can assign agamma prior ?  ? Gamma(a? , b? ) and update it with ?|? ? Pn ? e Gamma a? + K, b? + ?? ? + ? ( ?) . Other parameters of the GGP can be updated i=1 i using a Metropolis-Hastings step. ? ?  ? 6 4 Discussion Power-law behavior. We now discuss some of the properties of the model, in the case of the GGP. The total number of books read by n readers is O(n? ). Moreover, for ? > 0, the degree distribution follows a power-law distribution: asymptotically, the proportion of books read by m readers is O(m?1?? ) (details in supplementary material). These results are similar to those of the stable IBP [18]. However, in our case, a similar behavior can be obtained for the degree distribution of readers when assigning a GGP to it, while it will always be Poisson for the stable IBP. Connection to IBP. The stable beta process [18] is a particular case of our construction, obtained by setting weights ?i = ? and L?evy measure ?(w) = ? ?(1 + c) ?(1 ? e??w )???1 e??w(c+?) ?(1 ? ?)?(c + ?) (16) The proof is obtained by a change of variable from the L?evy measure of the stable beta process. Extensions to latent factor models. So far, we have assumed that the binary matrix Z was observed. The proposed model can also be used as a prior for latent factor models, similarly to the IBP. As an example of the potential usefulness of our model compared to IBP, consider the extraction of features from time series of different lengths. Longer time series are more likely to exhibit more features than shorter ones, and it is sensible in this case to assume different weights ?i . In a more general setting, we may want ?i to depend on a set of metadata associated to reader i. Inference for latent factor models is described in supplementary material. 5 Illustrations on real-world social networks We now consider estimating the parameters of our model and evaluating its predictive performance on six bipartite social networks of various sizes. We first provide a short description of these networks. The dataset ?Boards? contains information about members of the boards of Norwegian companies sitting at the same board in August 20112 . ?Forum? is a forum network about web users contributing to the same forums3 . ?Books? concerns data collected from the Book-Crossing community about users providing ratings on books4 where we extracted the bipartite network from the ratings. ?Citations? is the co-authorship network based on preprints posted to Condensed Matter section of ArXiv between 1995 and 1999 [15]. ?Movielens100k? contains information about users rating particular movies5 from which we extracted the bipartite network. Finally, ?IMDB? contains information about actors co-starring a movie6 . The sizes of the different networks are given in Table 1. Dataset Board n 355 K 5766 Edges 1746 Forum Books Citations Movielens100k IMDB 899 5064 16726 943 28088 552 36275 22016 1682 178074 7089 49997 58595 100000 341313 S-IBP 9.82 (29.8) -6.7e3 83.1 -3.7e4 -6.7e4 -1.5e5 SG 8.3 (30.8) -6.7e3 214 -3.7e4 -6.7e4 -1.5e5 IG -145.1 (81.9) -5.5e3 4.6e4 -3.1e4 -5.5e4 -1.1e5 GGP -68.6 (31.9) -5.6e3 4.4e4 -3.4e4 -5.5e4 -1.1e5 Table 1: Size of the different datasets and test log-likelihood of four different models. We evaluate the fit of four different models on these datasets. First, the stable IBP [18] with parameters (?IBP , ?IBP , ?IBP ) (S-IBP). Second, our model where the parameter ? is the same over different readers, and is assigned a flat prior (SG). Third our model where each ?i ? Gamma(a? , b? ) where (a? , b? ) are unknown parameters with flat improper prior (IG). Finally, our model with a GGP model for ?i , with parameters (?? , ?? , ?? ) (GGP). We divide each dataset between a training 2 Data can be downloaded from http://www.boardsandgender.com/data.php Data for the forum and citation datasets can be downloaded from http://toreopsahl.com/datasets/ 4 http://www.informatik.uni-freiburg.de/ cziegler/BX/ 5 The dataset can be downloaded from http://www.grouplens.org 6 The dataset can be downloaded from http://www.cise.ufl.edu/research/sparse/matrices/Pajek/IMDB.html 3 7 3 3 10 3 10 4 10 Model Data 10 Model Data Model Data Model Data 3 10 2 2 10 2 10 10 2 10 1 1 10 1 10 10 1 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 2 10 Degree (a) S-IBP 4 4 3 4 10 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 10 0 10 Degree (e) S-IBP 10 10 0 10 0 10 Degree 2 10 10 0 10 0 10 10 2 10 10 3 10 2 Model Data 4 10 3 10 2 5 10 Model Data 10 3 10 (d) GGP 5 10 Model Data 10 2 10 Degree (c) IG 5 10 Model Data 10 10 0 10 2 10 Degree (b) GS 5 10 0 10 0 10 2 10 Degree 10 0 10 Degree (f) GS Degree (g) IG (h) GGP Figure 3: Degree distributions for movies (a-d) and actors (e-h) for the IMDB movie-actor dataset with four different models. Data are represented by red plus and samples from the model by blue crosses. 3 3 10 3 10 2 1 1 1 (a) S-IBP 4 4 3 4 2 2 2 (e) S-IBP 1 10 0 10 0 10 Degree 2 10 1 10 0 10 0 10 10 10 1 10 0 3 10 10 1 10 0 10 0 10 Degree 10 0 10 Degree (f) GS Model Data 4 10 3 10 10 5 10 Model Data 10 3 10 (d) GGP 5 10 Model Data 10 2 10 Degree (c) IG 5 10 Model Data 10 0 10 0 10 2 10 Degree (b) GS 5 1 10 0 10 0 10 2 10 Degree 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 2 10 Degree Model Data 2 10 10 0 10 0 10 Model Data 2 10 10 10 Model Data 2 10 3 10 Model Data (g) IG Degree (h) GGP Figure 4: Degree distributions for readers (a-d) and books (e-h) for the BX books dataset with four different models. Data are represented by red plus and samples from the model by blue crosses. set containing 3/4 of the readers and a test set with the remaining. For each model, we approximate the posterior mean of the unknown parameters (respectively (?IBP , ?IBP , ?IBP ), ?, (a? , b? ) and (?? , ?? , ?? ) for S-IBP, SG, IG and GGP) given the training network with a Gibbs sampler with 10000 burn-in iterations then 10000 samples; then we evaluate the log-likelihood of the estimated model on the test data. For GGP, we use ??test = ? b? /3 to take into account the different sample sizes. For ?Boards?, we do 10 replications with random permutations given the small sample size and report standard deviation together with mean value. Table 1 shows the results over the different networks for the different models. Typically, S-IBP and SG give very similar results. This is not surprising, as they share the same properties, i.e. Poissonian degree distribution for readers and power-law degree distribution for books. Both methods perform better solely on the Board dataset, where the Poisson assumption on the number of people sitting on the same board makes sense. On all the other datasets, IG and GGP perform better and similarly, with slightly better performances for IG. These two models are better able to capture the power-law distribution of the degrees of readers. These properties are shown on Figures 3 and 4 which resp. give the empirical degree distributions of the test network and a draw from the estimated models, for the IMDB dataset and the Books dataset. It is clearly seen that the four models are able to capture the power-law behavior of the degree distribution of actors (Figure 3(e-h)) or books (Figure 4(e-h)). However, only IG and GGP are able to capture the power-law behavior of the degree distribution of movies (Figure 3(a-d)) or readers (Figure 4(a-d)). 8 References [1] A. Brix. Generalized gamma measures and shot-noise Cox processes. Advances in Applied Probability, 31(4):929?953, 1999. [2] F. Caron and Y. W. Teh. Bayesian nonparametric models for ranked data. In Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2012. [3] D.J. Daley and D. Vere-Jones. An introduction to the theory of point processes. Springer Verlag, 2008. [4] L. Devroye. Random variate generation for exponentially and polynomially tilted stable distributions. ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS), 19(4):18, 2009. [5] E.B. Fox, E.B. Sudderth, M.I. Jordan, and A.S. Willsky. Sharing features among dynamical systems with beta processes. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 22, pages 549?557, 2009. [6] A. Goldenberg, A.X. Zheng, S.E. Fienberg, and E.M. Airoldi. A survey of statistical network models. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2(2):129?233, 2010. [7] D. G?or?ur, F. J?akel, and C.E. Rasmussen. A choice model with infinitely many latent features. In Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on Machine learning, pages 361?368. ACM, 2006. [8] T Griffiths and Z. Ghahramani. Infinite latent feature models and the Indian buffet process. In NIPS, 2005. [9] T. Griffiths and Z. Ghahramani. The Indian buffet process: an introduction and review. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12(April):1185?1224, 2011. [10] N.L. Hjort. Nonparametric bayes estimators based on beta processes in models for life history data. The Annals of Statistics, 18(3):1259?1294, 1990. [11] L.F. James, A. Lijoi, and I. Pr?unster. Posterior analysis for normalized random measures with independent increments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 36(1):76?97, 2009. [12] J.F.C. Kingman. Completely random measures. Pacific Journal of Mathematics, 21(1):59?78, 1967. [13] J.F.C. Kingman. Poisson processes, volume 3. Oxford University Press, USA, 1993. [14] M.E.J. Newman. The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM review, pages 167? 256, 2003. [15] M.E.J. Newman, S.H. Strogatz, and D.J. Watts. Random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions and their applications. Physical Review E, 64(2):26118, 2001. [16] M.E.J. Newman, D.J. Watts, and S.H. Strogatz. Random graph models of social networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99:2566, 2002. [17] J.J. Ramasco, S.N. Dorogovtsev, and R. Pastor-Satorras. Self-organization of collaboration networks. Physical review E, 70(3):036106, 2004. [18] Y.W. Teh and D. G?or?ur. Indian buffet processes with power-law behavior. In NIPS, 2009. [19] R. Thibaux and M. Jordan. Hierarchical beta processes and the Indian buffet process. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, volume 11, pages 564?571, 2007. [20] F. Wood, T.L. Griffiths, and Z. Ghahramani. A non-parametric Bayesian method for inferring hidden causes. In Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, volume 22, 2006. 9
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Cocktail Party Processing via Structured Prediction Yuxuan Wang1 , DeLiang Wang1,2 Department of Computer Science and Engineering 2 Center for Cognitive Science The Ohio State University Columbus, OH 43210 {wangyuxu,dwang}@cse.ohio-state.edu 1 Abstract While human listeners excel at selectively attending to a conversation in a cocktail party, machine performance is still far inferior by comparison. We show that the cocktail party problem, or the speech separation problem, can be effectively approached via structured prediction. To account for temporal dynamics in speech, we employ conditional random fields (CRFs) to classify speech dominance within each time-frequency unit for a sound mixture. To capture complex, nonlinear relationship between input and output, both state and transition feature functions in CRFs are learned by deep neural networks. The formulation of the problem as classification allows us to directly optimize a measure that is well correlated with human speech intelligibility. The proposed system substantially outperforms existing ones in a variety of noises. 1 Introduction The cocktail party problem, or the speech separation problem, is one of the central problems in speech processing. A particularly difficult scenario is monaural speech separation, in which mixtures are recorded by a single microphone and the task is to separate the target speech from its interference. This is a severely underdetermined figure-ground separation problem, and has been studied for decades with limited success. Researchers have attempted to solve the monaural speech separation problem from various angles. In signal processing, speech enhancement (e.g., [1, 2]) has been extensively studied, and assumptions regarding the statistical properties of noise are crucial to its success. Model-based methods (e.g., [3]) work well in constrained environments, and source models need to be trained in advance. Computational auditory scene analysis (CASA) [4] is inspired by how human auditory system functions [5]. CASA has the potential to deal with general acoustic environments but existing systems have limited performance, particularly in dealing with unvoiced speech. Recent studies suggest a new formulation to the cocktail party problem, where the focus is to classify whether a time-frequency (T-F) unit is dominated by the target speech [6]. Motivated by this viewpoint, we propose to approach the monaural speech separation problem via structured prediction. The use of structured predictors, as opposed to binary classifiers, is motivated by temporal dynamics in speech signal. Our study makes the following contributions: (1) we demonstrate that modeling temporal dynamics via structured prediction can significantly improve separation; (2) to capture nonlinearity, we propose a new structured prediction model that makes use of the discriminative feature learning power of deep neural networks; and (3) instead of classification accuracy, we show how to directly optimize a measure that is well correlated with human speech intelligibility. 1 2 Separation as binary classification We aim to estimate a time-frequency matrix called the ideal binary mask (IBM). The IBM is a binary matrix constructed from premixed target and interference, where 1 indicates that the target energy exceeds the interference energy by a local signal-to-noise (SNR) criterion (LC) in the corresponding T-F unit, and 0 otherwise. The IBM is defined as: IBM (t, f ) =  1, if SN R(t, f ) > LC 0, otherwise, where SN R(t, f ) denotes the local SNR (in decibels) within the T-F unit at time t and frequency f . We adopt the common choice of LC = 0 in this paper [7]. Despite its simplicity, adopting the IBM as a computational objective offers several advantages. First, the IBM is directly based on the auditory masking phenomenon whereby a stronger sound tends to mask a weaker one within a critical band. Second, unlike other objectives such as maximizing SNR, it is well established that large human speech intelligibility improvements result from IBM processing, even for very low SNR mixtures [7?9]. Improving human speech intelligibility is considered as a gold standard for speech separation. Third, IBM estimation naturally leads to classification, which opens the cocktail party problem to a plethora of machine learning techniques. We propose to formulate IBM estimation as binary classification as follows, which is a form of supervised learning. A sound mixture with the 16 kHz sampling rate is passed through a 64-channel gammatone filterbank spanning from 50 Hz to 8000 Hz on the equivalent rectangular bandwidth rate scale. The output from each filter channel is divided into 20-ms frames with 10-ms frame shift, producing a cochleagram [4]. Due to different spectral properties of speech, a subband classifier is trained for each filter channel independently, with the IBM providing training labels. Acoustic features for each subband classifier are extracted from T-F units in the cochleagram. The target speech is separated by binary weighting of the cochleagram using the estimated IBM [4]. Several recent studies have attempted to directly estimate the IBM via classification. By employing Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) as classifiers and amplitude modulation spectrograms (AMS) as features, Kim et al. [10] show that estimated masks can improve human speech intelligibility in noise. Han and Wang [11] have improved Kim et al.?s system by employing support vector machines (SVMs) as classifiers. Wang et al. [12] propose a set of complementary acoustic features that shows further improvements over previous systems. The complementary feature is a concatenation of AMS, relative spectral transform and perceptual linear prediction (RASTA-PLP), mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), and pitch-based features. Because the ratio of 1?s to 0?s in the IBM is often skewed, simply using classification accuracy as the evaluation criterion may not be appropriate. Speech intelligibility studies [9, 10] have evaluated the influence of the hit (HIT) and false-alarm (FA) rate on intelligibility scores. The difference, the HIT?FA rate, is found to be well correlated to human speech intelligibility in noise [10]. The HIT rate is the percent of correctly classified target-dominant T-F units (1?s) in the IBM, and the FA rate is the percent of wrongly classified interference-dominant T-F units (0?s). Therefore, it is desirable to design a separation algorithm that maximizes HIT?FA of the output mask. 3 Proposed system Dictated by speech production mechanisms, the IBM contains highly structured, rather than, random patterns. Previous systems do not explicitly model such structure. As a result, temporal dynamics, which is a fundamental characteristic of speech, is largely ignored in previous work. Separation systems accounting for temporal dynamics exist. For example, Mysore et al. [13] incorporate temporal dynamics using HMMs. Hershey et al. [14] consider different levels of dynamic constraints. However, these works do not treat separation as classification. Contrary to standard binary classifiers, structured prediction models are able to model correlations in the output. In this paper, we treat unit classification at each filter channel as a sequence labeling problem and employ linear-chain conditional random fields (CRFs) [15] as subband classifiers. 2 3.1 Conditional random fields Different from HMM, a CRF is a discriminative model and does not need independence assumptions of features, making it more suitable to our task. A CRF models the posterior probability P (y|x) as follows. Denoting y as a label sequence and x as an input sequence,  P T exp t w f (y, x, t) . (1) P (y|x) = Z(x)  P P T ? Here t indexes time frames, w is the parameters to learn, and Z(x) = y? exp t w f (y , x, t) is the partition function. f is a vector-valued feature function associated with each local site (T-F unit in our task), and often categorized into state feature functions s(yt , x, t) and transition feature functions t(yt?1 , yt , x, t). State feature functions define the local discriminant functions for each T-F unit and transition feature functions capture the interaction between neighboring labels. We assume a linear-chain setting and the first-order Markovian property, i.e., only interactions between two neighboring units in time are modeled. In our task, we can simply use acoustic feature vectors in each T-F unit as state feature functions and their concatenations as transition feature functions: s(yt , x, t) = t(yt?1 , yt , x, t) = [?(yt =0) xt , ?(yt =1) xt ]T , (2) T [?(yt?1 =yt ) zt , ?(yt?1 6=yt ) zt ] , (3) T where ? is the indicator function and zt = [xt?1 , xt ] . Equation (3) essentially encodes temporal continuity in the IBM. To simplify notations, all feature functions are written as f (yt?1 , yt , x, t) in the remainder of the paper. Training is for estimating w, and   is usually done by maximizing the conditional log-likelihood on a training set T = x(m) , y(m) , i.e., we seek w by X max log p(y(m) |x(m) , w) + R(w), (4) w m where m is the index of a training sample, and R(w) is a regularizer of w (we use ?2 in this paper). For gradient ascent, a popular choice is the limited-memory BFGS (L-BFGS) algorithm [16]. 3.2 Nonlinear expansion using deep neural networks A CRF is a log-linear model, which has only linear modeling power. As acoustic features are generally not linearly separable, the direct use of CRFs unlikely produces good results. In the following, we propose a method to transform the standard CRF into a nonlinear sequence classifier. We employ pretrained deep neural networks (DNNs) to capture nonlinearity between input and output. DNNs have received widespread attention since Hinton et al.?s paper [17]. DNNs can be viewed as hierarchical feature detectors that learn increasingly complex feature mappings as the number of hidden layers increases. To deal with problems such as vanishing gradients, Hinton et al. suggest to first pretrain a DNN using a stack of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) in a unsupervised and layerwise fashion. The resulting network weights are then supervisedly finetuned by backpropagation. We first train DNN in the standard way to classify speech dominance in each T-F unit. After pretraining and supervised finetuning, we then take the last hidden layer representations from the DNN as learned features to train the CRF. In a discriminatively trained DNN, the weights from the last hidden layer to the output layer would define a linear classifier, hence the last hidden layer representations are more amenable to linear classification. In other words, we replace x by h in equations (1)-(4), where h represents the learned hidden features. This way CRFs would greatly benefit from the nonlinear modeling power of deep architectures. To better encode local contextual information, we could use a window (across both time and frequency) of learned features to label the current T-F unit. A more parsimonious way is to use a window of posteriors estimated by DNNs as features to train the CRF, which can dramatically reduce the dimensionality. We note in passing that the correlations across both time and frequency can also be encoded at the model level, e.g., by using grid-structured CRFs. However the decoding algorithm may substantially increase the computational complexity of the system. 3 We want to point out that an important advantage of using neural networks for feature learning is its efficiency in the test phase; once trained, the nonlinear feature extraction of DNN is extremely fast (only involves forward pass). This is, however, not always true for other methods. For example, sparse coding may need to solve a new optimization problem to get the features. Test phase efficiency is crucial for real-time implementation of a speech separation system. There is related work on developing nonlinear sequence classifiers in the machine learning community. For example, van der Maaten et al. [18] and Morency et al. [19] consider incorporating hidden variables into the training and inference in CRF. Peng et al. [20] investigate a combination of neural networks and CRFs. Other related studies include [21] and [22]. The proposed model differs from the previous methods in that (1) discriminatively trained deep architecture is used, and/or (2) a CRF instead of a Viterbi decoder is used on top of a neural network for sequence labeling, and/or (3) nonlinear features are also used in modeling transitions. In addition, the use of a contextual window and the change of the objective function discussed in the next subsection is specifically tailored to the speech separation problem. 3.3 Maximizing HIT?FA rate As argued before, it is desirable to train a classifier to maximize the HIT?FA rate of the estimated mask. In this subsection, we show how to change the objective function and efficiently calculate the gradients in CRF. Since subband classifiers are used, we aim to maximize the channelwise HIT?FA. Denote the output label as 1} and the t ? {0, 1}. The per utterance HIT?FA Put ? {0,P Ptrue label as yP rate can be expressed as t ut yt / t yt ? t ut (1 ? yt )/ t (1 ? yt ), where the first term is the HIT rate and the second the FA rate. To make the objective function differentiable, we replace ut by the marginal probability p(yt = 1|x), hence we seek w by maximizing the HIT?FA on a training set: ! P P P P (m) (m) (m) (m) = 1|x(m) , w)yt = 1|x(m) , w)(1 ? yt ) m t p(yt m t p(yt max . (5) ? P P (m) P P (m) w ) m t yt m t (1 ? yt Clearly, computing the gradient of (5) boils down to computing the gradient of the marginal. A speech utterance (sentence) typically spans several hundreds of time frames, therefore numerical stability is critically important in our task. As can be seen later, computing the gradient of the marginal requires the gradient of forward/backward scores. We adopt Rabiner?s scaling trick [23] used in HMM to normalize the forward/backward score at each time point. Specifically, define ?(t, u) and ?(t, u) as the forward and P backward score of label u at time t, respectively. We norto normalize the malize the forward score such that u ?(t, u) = 1, and use the resulting scaling  backward score. Defining potential function ?t (v, u) = exp wT f (v, u, x, t) , the recurrence of the normalized forward/backward score is written as, X ?(t, u) = ?(t ? 1, v)?t (v, u)/s(t), (6) v ?(t, u) = X ?(t + 1, v)?t (u, v)/s(t + 1), (7) v Q P P where s(t) = t s(t), and now u v ?(t ? 1, v)?t (v, u). It is easy to show that Z(x) = the marginal has a simpler form of p(yt |x, w) = ?(t, yt )?(t, yt ). Therefore, the gradient of the marginal is, ?p(yt |x, w) = G? (t, yt )?(t, yt ) + ?(t, yt )G? (t, yt ), (8) ?w where G? and G? are the gradients of the normalized forward and backward score, respectively. Due to score normalization, G? and P G? will very unlikely overflow. We now show that G? can be calculated recursively. Let q(t, u) = v ?(t ? 1, v)?t (v, u), we have P ?q(t,v) ?q(t,u) P ??(t, u) v ?w q(t, u) v q(t, v) ? ?w , (9) G? (t, u) = = P 2 ?w ( v q(t, v)) and, X ?q(t, u) X = G? (t ? 1, v)?t (v, u) + ?(t ? 1, v)?t (v, u)f (v, u, x, t). ?w v v 4 (10) 95 95 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 90 90 85 HIT?FA 80 80 75 75 70 70 70 ?10 dB ?5 dB 65 0 dB ?10 dB (a) matched: overall ?5 dB 65 0 dB 75 HIT?FA HIT?FA 70 75 70 70 65 65 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 80 80 75 0 dB 85 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 85 80 ?5 dB (c) matched: unvoiced 90 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 85 ?10 dB (b) matched: voiced 90 HIT?FA 80 75 65 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 90 85 HIT?FA 85 HIT?FA 95 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 65 60 55 50 45 60 ?10 dB ?5 dB 60 0 dB ?10 dB (d) unmatched: overall ?5 dB 40 0 dB ?10 dB (e) unmatched: voiced ?5 dB 0 dB (f) unmatched: unvoiced Figure 1: HIT?FA results. (a)-(c): matched-noise test condition; (d)-(f): unmatched-noise test condition. 90 90 85 85 90 80 80 80 70 70 HIT?FA HIT?FA HIT?FA 75 75 70 60 65 50 65 60 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 60 55 DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 55 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Channel (a) overall DNN DNN* DNN?CRF DNN?CRF* 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Channel (b) voiced speech intervals 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Channel (c) unvoiced speech intervals Figure 2: Channelwise HIT?FA comparisons on the 0 dB test mixtures. The derivation of G? is similar, thus omitted. The time complexity of calculating G? and G? is O(L|S|2 ), where L and |S| are the utterance length and the size of the label set, respectively. This is the same as the forward-backward recursion. The objective function in (5) is not concave. Since high accuracy correlates with high HIT?FA, a safe practice is to use a solution from (4) as a warm start for the subsequent optimization of (5). For feature learning, DNN is also trained using (5) in the final system. The gradient calculation is much simpler due to the absence of transition features. We found that L-BFGS performs well and shows fast and stable convergence for both feature learning and CRF training. 4 Experimental results 4.1 Experimental setup Our training and test sets are primarily created from the IEEE corpus [24] recorded by a single female speaker. This enables us to directly compare with previous intelligibility studies [10], where the same speaker is used in training and testing. The training set is created by mixing 50 utterances with 12 noises at 0 dB. To create the test set, we choose 20 unseen utterances from the same speaker. First, the 20 utterances are mixed with the previous 12 noises to create a matched-noise test 5 60 50 50 40 40 40 30 20 Channel 60 50 Channel Channel 60 30 20 10 20 10 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 10 20 40 60 80 Frame (a) Ideal binary mask 30 100 120 140 160 180 200 Frame (b) DNN-CRF? -P mask 220 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Frame (c) DNN mask Figure 3: Masks for a test utterance mixed with an unseen crowd noise at 0 dB. White represents 1?s and black represents 0?s. condition, then 5 unseen noises to create a unmatched-noise test condition. The test noises1 cover a variety of daily noises and most of them are highly non-stationary. In each frequency channel, there are roughly 150,000 and 82,000 T-F units in the training and test set, respectively. Speakerindependent experiments are presented in Section 4.4. The proposed system is called DNN-CRF or DNN-CRF? if it is trained to maximize HIT?FA. We use suffix R and P to distinguish training features for CRF, where R stands for learned features without a context window (features are learned from the complementary acoustic feature set mentioned in Section 2) and P stands for a window of posterior features. We use a two hidden layer DNN as it provides a good trade-off between performance and complexity, and use a context window spanning 5 time frames and 17 frequency channels to construct the posterior feature vector. We use the cross-entropy objective function for training the standard DNN in comparisons. 4.2 Experiment 1: HIT?FA maximization In this subsection, we show the effect of directly maximizing the HIT?FA rate. To evaluate the contribution from the change of the objective alone, we use ideal pitch in the following experiments to neutralize pitch estimation errors. The models are trained on 0 dB mixtures. In addition to 0 dB, we also test the trained models on -10 and -5 dB mixtures. Such a test setting not only allows us to measure the system?s generalization to different SNR conditions, but also to show the effects of HIT?FA maximization on estimating sparse IBMs. We compare DNN-CRF? -R with DNN, DNN? and DNN-CRF-R, and the results are shown in Figure 1 and 2. We document HIT?FA rates on three levels: overall, voiced intervals (pitched frames) and unvoiced intervals (unpitched frames). Voicing boundaries are determined using ideal pitch. Figure 1 shows the results for both matched-noise and unmatched-noise test conditions. First, comparing the performances of DNN-CRFs and DNNs, we can see that modeling temporal continuity always improves performance. It also seems very helpful for generalization to different SNRs. In the matched condition, the improvement by directly maximizing HIT?FA is most significant in unvoiced intervals. The improvement becomes larger when SNR decreases. In the unmatched condition, as classification becomes much harder, direct maximization of HIT?FA offers more improvements in all cases. The largest HIT?FA improvement of DNN-CRF? -R over DNN is about 10.7% and 21.2% absolute in overall and unvoiced speech intervals, respectively. For a closer inspection, Figure 2 shows channelwise HIT?FA comparisons on the 0 dB test mixtures in the matched-noise test condition. It is well known that unvoiced speech is indispensable for speech intelligibility but hard to separate. Due to the lack of harmonicity and weak energy, frequency channels containing unvoiced speech often have significantly skewed distributions of target-dominant and interference-dominant units. Therefore, an accuracy-maximizing classifier tends to output all 0?s to attain a high accuracy. As an illustration, Figure 3 shows two masks for an utterance mixed with an unseen crowd noise at 0 dB using DNN and DNN-CRF? -P respectively. The two estimated masks achieve similar accuracy around 90%. However, it is clear that the DNN mask misses significant portions of unvoiced speech, e.g., between frame 30-50 and 220-240. 1 Test noises are: babble, bird chirp, crow, cocktail party, yelling, clap, rain, rock music, siren, telephone, white, wind, crowd, fan, speech shaped, traffic, and factory noise. The first 12 are used in training. 6 Table 1: Performance comparisons between different systems. Boldface indicates best result Matched-noise condition Unmatched-noise condition Accuracy HIT?FA SNR (dB) SegSNR (dB) Accuracy HIT?FA SNR (dB) SegSNR (dB) GMM [10] 77.4% 55.4% 10.2 7.3 65.9% 31.6% 6.8 1.9 SVM [11] 86.6% 68.0% 10.5 10.9 91.2% 64.1% 9.7 7.9 DNN 87.7% 71.6% 11.4 11.8 91.1% 66.2% 9.9 8.1 CRF 82.3% 59.8% 8.8 8.7 90.8% 64.0% 9.3 7.8 SVM-Struct 81.7% 58.6% 8.4 8.1 90.7% 63.5% 9.1 7.5 CNF 87.8% 71.7% 11.2 12.0 91.1% 66.9% 9.8 8.4 LD-CRF 86.3% 68.4% 9.7 10.5 91.1% 63.6% 8.9 7.8 DNN-CRF? -R 89.1% 75.6% 12.1 13.2 90.8% 70.2% 10.3 9.0 DNN-CRF? -P 89.9% 76.9% 12.0 13.5 91.1% 70.7% 10.0 8.9 Hendriks et al. [1] n/a n/a 4.6 0.5 n/a n/a 6.2 1.1 Wiener Filter [2] n/a n/a 3.7 -0.7 n/a n/a 5.6 -0.6 System Table 2: Performance comparisons when tested on different unseen speakers Matched-noise condition Unmatched-noise condition Accuracy HIT?FA SNR (dB) SegSNR (dB) Accuracy HIT?FA SNR (dB) SegSNR (dB) SVM [11] 86.2% 65.0% 10.2 9.9 91.1% 60.6% 9.4 7.3 DNN-CRF? -P 87.3% 72.0% 12.1 11.2 90.9% 68.3% 10.1 8.1 Hendriks et al. [1] n/a n/a 4.5 -2.9 n/a n/a 6.9 -1.0 Wiener Filter [2] n/a n/a 3.8 -4.5 n/a n/a 6.0 -3.3 System In summary, direct maximization of HIT?FA improves HIT?FA performance compared to accuracy maximization, especially for unvoiced speech, and the improvement is more significant when the system is tested on unseen acoustic environments. 4.3 Experiment 2: system comparisons We systematically compare the proposed system with three kinds of systems on 0 dB mixtures: binary classifier based, structured predictor based, and speech enhancement based. In addition to HIT?FA, we also include classification accuracy, SNR and segmental SNR (segSNR) as alternative evaluation criteria. To compute SNRs, we use the target speech resynthesized from the IBM as the ground truth signal for all classification-based systems. This way of computing SNRs is commonly adopted in the literature [4, 25], as the IBM represents the ground truth of classification. All classification-based systems use the same feature set, but with estimated pitch, described in Section 2, except for Kim et al.?s GMM based system which uses AMS features [10]. Note that we fail to produce reasonable results using the complementary feature set in Kim et al.?s system, possibly because GMM requires much more training data than discriminative models for high dimensional features. Results are summarized in Table 1. We first compare with methods based on binary classifiers. These include two existing systems [10, 11] and a DNN based system. Due to the variety of noises, classification is challenging even in the matched-noise condition. It is clear that the proposed system significantly outperforms the others in terms of all criteria. The improvement of DNN-CRF? s over DNN demonstrates the benefit of modeling temporal continuity. It is interesting to see that DNN significantly outperforms SVM, especially for unvoiced speech (not shown) which is important for speech intelligibility. We note that without RBM pretraining, DNN performs significantly worse. Classification in the unmatchednoise condition is obviously more difficult, as feature distributions are likely mismatched between the training and the test set. Kim et al.?s system fails to generalize to different acoustic environments due to substantially increased FA rates. The proposed system significantly outperforms SVM and DNN, achieving about 71% overall HIT?FA and 10 dB SNR for unseen noises. Kim et al.?s system has been shown to improve human speech intelligibility [10], it is therefore reasonable to project that the proposed system will provide further speech intelligibility improvements. We next compare with systems based on structured predictors, including CRF, SVM-Struct [26], conditional neural fields (CNF) [20] and latent-dynamic CRF (LD-CRF) [19]. For fair comparisons, we use a two hidden layer CNF model with the same number of parameters as DNN-CRF? s. Conventional structured predictors such as CRF and SVM-Struct (linear kernel) are able to explicitly model temporal dynamics, but only with linear modeling capability. Direct use of CRF turns out to be much worse than using kernel SVM. Nevertheless, the performance can be substantially 7 boosted by adding latent variables (LD-CRF) or by using nonlinear feature functions (CNF and DNN-CRF? s). With the same network architecture, CNF mainly differs from our model in two aspects. First, CNF does not use unsupervised RBM pretraining. Second, CNF only uses bias units in building transition features. As a result, the proposed system significantly outperforms CNF, even if CRF and neural networks are jointly trained in the CNF model. With better ability of encoding contextual information, using a window of posteriors as features clearly outperforms single unit features in terms of classification. It is worth noting that although SVM achieves slightly higher accuracy in the unmatched-noise condition, the resulting HIT?FA and SNRs are worse than some other systems. This is consistent with our analysis in Section 4.2. Finally, we compare with two representative speech enhancement systems [1, 2]. The algorithm proposed in [1] represents a recent state-of-the-art method and Wiener filtering [2] is one of the most widely used speech enhancement algorithms. Since speech enhancement does not aim to estimate the IBM, we compare SNRs by using clean speech (not the IBM) as the ground truth. As shown in Table 1, the speech enhancement algorithms are much worse, and this is true of all 17 noises. Due to temporal continuity modeling and the use of T-F context, the proposed system produces masks that are smoother than those from the other systems (e.g., Figure 3). As a result, the outputs seem to contain less musical noise. 4.4 Experiment 3: speaker generalization Although the training set contains only a single IEEE speaker, the proposed system generalizes reasonably well to different unseen speakers. To show this, we create a new test set by mixing 20 utterances from the TIMIT corpus [27] at 0 dB. The new test utterances are chosen from 10 different female TIMIT speakers, each providing 2 utterances. We show the results in Table 2, and it is clear that the proposed system generalizes better than existing ones to unseen speakers. Note that significantly better performance and generalization to different genders can be obtained by including the speaker(s) of interest into the training set. 5 Discussion and conclusion Listening tests have shown that a high FA rate is more detrimental to speech intelligibility than a high miss (or low HIT) [9]. The proposed classification framework affords us control over these two quantities. For example, we could constrain the upper bound of the FA rate while still maximizing the HIT rate. In this case, a constrained optimization should substitute (5). Our experimental results (not shown due to lack of space) indicate that this can effectively remove spurious target segments while still produce intelligible speech. Being able to efficiently compute the derivative of marginals, in principle one could optimize a class of objectives other than HIT?FA. These may include objectives concerning either speech intelligibility or quality, as long as the objective of interest can be expressed or approximated by a combination of marginal probabilities. For example, we have tried to simultaneously minimize two traditional CASA measures PEL and PN R (see e.g., [25]), where PEL represents the percent of target energy loss and PN R the percent of noise energy residue. Significant reductions in both measures can be achieved compared to methods that maximize accuracy or conditional log-likelihood. We have demonstrated that the challenge of the monaural speech separation problem can be effectively approached via structured prediction. Observing that the IBM exhibits highly structured patterns, we have proposed to use CRF to explicitly model the temporal continuity in the IBM. This linear sequence classifier is further transformed to a nonlinear one by using state and transition feature functions learned from DNN. Consistent with the results from speech perception, we train the proposed DNN-CRF model to maximize a measure that is well correlated to human speech intelligibility in noise. Experimental results show that the proposed system significantly outperforms existing ones and generalizes better to different acoustic environments. Aside from temporal continuity, other ASA principles [5] such as common onset and co-modulation also contribute to the structure in the IBM, and we will investigate these in future work. Acknowledgements. This research was supported in part by an AFOSR grant (FA9550-12-1-0130), an STTR subcontract from Kuzer, and the Ohio Supercomputer Center. 8 References [1] R. Hendriks, R. Heusdens, and J. Jensen, ?MMSE based noise PSD tracking with low complexity,? in ICASSP, 2010. [2] P. Scalart and J. Filho, ?Speech enhancement based on a priori signal to noise estimation,? in ICASSP, 1996. [3] S. Roweis, ?One microphone source separation,? in NIPS, 2001. [4] D. Wang and G. 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Wright, Numerical optimization. Springer verlag, 1999. [17] G. Hinton, S. Osindero, and Y. Teh, ?A fast learning algorithm for deep belief nets,? Neural Computation, vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 1527?1554, 2006. [18] L. van der Maaten, M. Welling, and L. Saul, ?Hidden-unit conditional random fields,? in AISTATS, 2011. [19] L. Morency, A. Quattoni, and T. Darrell, ?Latent-dynamic discriminative models for continuous gesture recognition,? in CVPR, 2007. [20] J. Peng, L. Bo, and J. Xu, ?Conditional neural fields,? in NIPS, 2009. [21] A. Mohamed, G. Dahl, and G. Hinton, ?Deep belief networks for phone recognition,? in NIPS workshop on speech recognition and related applications, 2009. [22] T. Do and T. Artieres, ?Neural conditional random fields,? in AISTATS, 2010. [23] L. Rabiner, ?A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition,? Proc. IEEE, vol. 77, no. 2, pp. 257?286, 2003. [24] IEEE, ?IEEE recommended practice for speech quality measurements,? IEEE Trans. Audio Electroacoust., vol. 17, pp. 225?246, 1969. [25] G. Hu and D. Wang, ?Monaural speech segregation based on pitch tracking and amplitude modulation,? IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 1135?1150, 2004. [26] I. Tsochataridis, T. Hofmann, and T. Joachims, ?Support vector machine for interdependent and structured output spaces,? in ICML, 2004. [27] J. Garofolo, DARPA TIMIT acoustic-phonetic continuous speech corpus, NIST, 1993. 9
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Slice sampling normalized kernel-weighted completely random measure mixture models Sinead A. Williamson Department of Machine Learning Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 [email protected] Nicholas J. Foti Department of Computer Science Dartmouth College Hanover, NH 03755 [email protected] Abstract A number of dependent nonparametric processes have been proposed to model non-stationary data with unknown latent dimensionality. However, the inference algorithms are often slow and unwieldy, and are in general highly specific to a given model formulation. In this paper, we describe a large class of dependent nonparametric processes, including several existing models, and present a slice sampler that allows efficient inference across this class of models. 1 Introduction Nonparametric mixture models allow us to bypass the issue of model selection, by modeling data using a random number of mixture components that can grow if we observe more data. However, such models work on the assumption that data can be considered exchangeable. This assumption often does not hold in practice as distributions commonly vary with some covariate. For example, the proportions of different species may vary across geographic regions, and the distribution over topics discussed on Twitter is likely to evolve over time. Recently, there has been increasing interest in dependent nonparametric processes [1], that extend existing nonparametric distributions to non-stationary data. While a nonparametric process is a distribution over a single measure, a dependent nonparametric process is a distribution over a collection of measures, which may be associated with values in a covariate space. The key property of a dependent nonparametric process is that the measure at each covariate value is marginally distributed according to a known nonparametric process. A number of dependent nonparametric processes have been developed in the literature ([2] ?6). For example, the single-p DDP [1] defines a collection of Dirichlet processes with common atom sizes but variable atom locations. The order-based DDP [3] constructs a collection of Dirichlet processes using a common set of beta random variables, but permuting the order in which they are used in a stick-breaking construction. The Spatial Normalized Gamma Process (SNGP) [4] defines a gamma process on an augmented space, such that at each covariate location a subset of the atoms are available. This creates a dependent gamma process, that can be normalized to obtain a dependent Dirichlet process. The kernel beta process (KBP) [5] defines a beta process on an augmented space, and at each covariate location modulates the atom sizes using a collection of kernels, to create a collection of dependent beta processes. Unfortunately, while such models have a number of appealing properties, inference can be challenging. While there are many similarities between existing dependent nonparametric processes, most of the inference schemes that have been proposed are highly specific, and cannot be generally applied without significant modification. 1 The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, in Section 2 we describe a general class of dependent nonparametric processes, based on defining completely random measures on an extended space. This class of models includes the SNGP and the KBP as special cases. Second, we develop a slice sampler that is applicable for all the dependent probability measures in this framework. We compare our slice sampler to existing inference algorithms, and show that we are able to achieve superior performance over existing algorithms. Further, the generality of our algorithm mean we are able to easily modify the assumptions of existing models to better fit the data, without the need to significantly modify our sampler. 2 Constructing dependent nonparametric models using kernels In this section, we describe a general class of dependent completely random measures, that includes the kernel beta process as a special case. We then describe the class of dependent normalized random measures obtained by normalizing these dependent completely random measures, and show that the SNGP lies in this framework. 2.1 Kernel CRMs A completely random measure (CRM) [6, 7] is a distribution over discrete1 measures B on some measurable space ? such that, for any disjoint subsets Ak ? ?, the masses B(Ak ) are independent. Commonly used examples of CRMs include the gamma process, the generalized gamma process, the beta process, and the stable process. A CRM is uniquely categorized by a L?evy measure ?(d?, d?) on ? ? R+ , which controls the location and size of the jumps. We can interpret a CRM as a Poisson process on ? ? R+ with mean measure ?(d?, d?). + Let ? = (X ??), and let ? = {(?k , ?k , ?k )}? k=1 be a Poisson process on the space X ???R with associated product ?-algebra. The space has three components: X , a bounded space of covariates; ?, a space of parameter values; and R+ , the space of atom masses. Let the mean measure of ? be described by the positive L?evy measure ?(d?, d?, d?). While the construction herein applies for any such L?evy measure, we focus on the class of L?evy measures that factorize as ?(d?, d?, d?) = R0 (d?)H0 (d?)?0 (d?). This corresponds to the class of homogeneous CRMs, where the size of an atom is independent of its location in ? ? X , and covers most CRMs encountered in the literature. We assume that X is a discrete space with P unique values, ??p , in order to simplify the exposition, and without loss of generality we assume that R0 (X ) = 1. Additionally, let K(?, ?) : X ?X ? [0, 1] be a bounded kernel function. Though any such kernel may be used, for concreteness we only consider a box kernel and square exponential kernel defined as ? Box kernel: K(x, ?) = 1 (||x ? ?|| < W ), where we call W the width.   2 ? Square exponential kernel: K(x, ?) = exp ?? ||x ? ?|| , for ||?|| a dissimilarity measure, and ? > 0 a fixed constant. Using the setup above we define a kernel-weighted CRM (KCRM) at a fixed covariate x ? X and for A measurable as P? Bx (A) = m=1 K(x, ?m )?m ??m (A) (1) which is seen to be a CRM on ? by the mapping theorem for Poisson processes [8]. For a fixed set of observations (x1 , . . . , xG )T we define B(A) = (Bx1 (A), . . . , BxG (A))T as the vector of measures of the KCRM at the observed covariates. CRMs are characterized by their characteristic function (CF) [9] which for the CRM B can be written as  Z  E[exp(?v T B(A))] = exp ? (1 ? exp(?v T K? ?)?(d?, d?, d?)) (2) X ?A?R+ where v ? RG and K? = (K(x1 , ?), . . . , K(xG , ?))T . Equation 2 is easily derived from the general form of the CF of a Poisson process [8] and by noting that the one-dimensional CFs are exactly those of the individual Bxi (A). See [5] for a discussion of the dependence structure between Bx and Bx0 for x, x0 ? X . 1 with, possibly, a deterministic continuous component 2 Taking ?0 to be the L?evy measure of a beta process [10] results in the KBP. Alternatively, taking ?0 as the L?evy measure of a gamma process, ?GaP [11], and K(?, ?) as the box kernel we recover the unnormalized form of the SNGP. 2.2 Kernel NRMs A distribution over probability measures can be obtained by starting from a CRM, and normalizing the resulting random measure. Such distributions are often referred to as normalized random measures (NRM) [12]. The most commonly used example of an NRM is the Dirichlet process, which can be obtained as a normalized gamma process [11]. Other CRMs yield NRMs with different properties ? for example a normalized generalized gamma process can have heavier tails than a Dirichlet process [13]. We can define a class of dependent NRMs in a similar manner, starting from the KCRM defined above. Since each marginal measure Bx of B is a CRM, we can normalize it by its total mass, Bx (?), to produce a NRM Px (A) = Bx (A)/Bx (?) = ? X K(x, ?m )?m P? ??m (A) l=1 K(x, ?l )?l m=1 (3) This formulation of a kernel NRM (KNRM) is similar to that in [14] for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck NRMs (OUNRM). While the OUNRM framework allows for arbitrary CRMs, in theory, extending it to arbitrary kernel functions is non-trivial. A fundamental difference between OUNRMs and normalized KCRMs is that the marginals of an OUNRM follow a specified process, whereas the marginals of a KCRM may be different than the underlying CRM. A common use in statistics and machine learning for NRMs is as prior distributions for mixture models with an unbounded number of components [15]. Analogously, covariate-dependent NRMs can be used as priors for mixture models where the probability of being associated with a mixture component varies with the covariate [4, 14]. For concreteness, we limit ourselves to a kernel gamma process (KGaP) which we denote as B ? KGaP(K, R0 , H0 , ?GaP ), although the slice sampler can be adapted to any normalized KCRM. Specifically, we observe data {(xj , yj )}N j=1 where xj ? X denotes the covariate of observation j d and yj ? R denotes the quantities we wish to model. Let x?g denote the gth unique covariate value among all the xj which induces a partition on the observations so that observation j belongs to group g if xj = x?g . We denote the ith observation corresponding to x?g as yg,i . Each observation is associated with a mixture component which we denote as sg,i which is drawn according to a normalized KGaP on a parameter space ?, such that (?, ?) ? ?, where ? is a mean and ? a precision. Conditional on sg,i , each observation is then drawn from some density q(?|?, ?) which we assume to be N(?, ??1 ). The full model can then be specified as Pg (A)|B ? Bg (A)/Bg (?) ? X K(x? , ?m )?m P? g ? sg,i |Pg ? ?m l=1 K(xg , ?l )?l m=1 (4) ? (?m , ??m ) ? ? ? H0 (d?, d?) yg,i |sg,i , {(? , ? )} ? q(yg,i |?s?g,i , ??sg,i ) If K(?, ?) is a box kernel, Eq. 4 describes a SNGP mixture model [4]. 3 A slice sampler for dependent NRMs The slice sampler of [16] allows us to perform inference in arbitrary NRMs. We extend this slice sampler to perform inference in the class of dependent NRMs described in Sec. 2.2. The slice sampler can be used with any underlying CRM, but for simplicity we concentrate on an underlying gamma process, as described in Eq. 4. In the supplement we also derive a Rao-Blackwellized estimator of the predictive density for unobserved data using the output from the slice sampler. We use this estimator to compute predictive densities in the experiments. 3 Analogously to [16] we introduce a set of auxiliary slice variables ? one for each data point. Each data point can only belong to clusters corresponding to atoms larger than its slice variable. The set of slice variables thus defines a minimum atom size that need be represented, ensuring a finite number of instantiated atoms. We extend this idea to the KNRM framework. Note that, in this case, an atom will exhibit different sizes at different covariate locations. We refer to these sizes as the kernelized atom sizes, K(x?g , ?)?, obtained by applying a kernel K, evaluated at location x?g , to the raw atom ?. Following [16], we introduce a local slice variable ug,i . This allows us to write the joint distribution over the data points yg,i , their cluster allocations sg,i and their slice variables ug,i as f (y, u, s|?, ?, ?, ?) = G Y Vgng ?1 e(?Vg BT g ) g=1 ng Y  1 ug,i < K(x?g , ?sg,i )?sg,i q(yg,i |?sg,i , ?sg,i ) i=1 (5) P? ? m=1 K(xg , ?m )?m where BT g = Bx?g (?) = and Vg ? Ga(ng , BT g ) is an auxiliary variable2 . See the supplement and [16, 17] for a complete derivation. In order to evaluate Eq. 5, we need to evaluate BT g , the total mass of the unnormalized CRM at each covariate value. This involves summing over an infinite number of atoms ? which we do not wish to represent. Define 0 < L = min {usg,i }. This gives the smallest possible (kernelized) atom size to which data can be attached. Therefore, if we instantiate all atoms with raw size greater than L, we will include all atoms associated with occupied clusters. For any value of L, there will be a finite number M of atoms above this threshold. From these M raw atoms, we can obtain the kernelized atoms above the slice corresponding to a given data point. We must obtain the remaining mass by marginalizing over all kernelized atoms that are below the slice (see the supplement). We can split this mass into, a.) the mass due to atoms that are not instantiated (i.e. whose kernelized value is below the slice at all covariate locations) and, b.) the mass due to currently instantiated atoms (i.e. atoms whose kernelized value is above the slice at at least one covariate location) 3 . As we show in the supplement, the first term, a, corresponds to atoms (?, ?) where ? < L, the mass of which can be written as ! Z L X ? T R0 (? ) (1 ? exp (?V K?? ?))?0 (d?) (6) ?? ?X 0 where V = (V1 , . . . , VG )T . This can be evaluated numerically for many CRMs including gamma and generalized gamma processes [16]. The second term, b, consists of realized atoms {(?k , ?k )} such that K(x?g , ?k )?k < L at covariate x?g . We use a Monte Carlo estimate for b that we describe in the supplement. For box kernels term b vanishes, and we have found that even for the square exponential kernel ignoring this term yields good results. 3.1 Sampling equations Having specified the joint distribution in terms of a finite measure with a random truncation point L we can now describe a sampler that samples in turn from the conditional distributions for the auxiliary variables Vg , the gamma process parameter ? = H0 (?), the instantiated raw atom sizes ?m and corresponding locations in covariate space ?m and in parameter space (?m , ?m ), and the slice variables ug,i . We define some simplifying notation: K? = (K(x?1 , ?), . . . , K(x?G , ?))T ; PM B+ = (B+1 , . . . , B+G )T , B? = (B?1 , . . . , B?G )T , where B+g = m=1 K(x?g , ?m )?m , B?g = P? ? m=M +1 K(xg , ?m )?m so that BT g = B+g +B?g ; and ng,m = |{sg,i : sg,i = m, i ? 1, . . . , ng }|. ? Auxiliary variables Vg : The full conditional distribution for Vg is given by p(Vg | ng , V?g , B+ , B? ) ? Vgng ?1 exp(?V T B+ )E[exp(?V T B? )], Vg > 0 (7) which we sample using Metropolis-Hastings moves, as in [18]. We parametrize the gamma distribution so that X ? Ga(a, b) has mean a/b and variance a/b2 If X were not bounded there would be a third term consisting of raw atoms > L that when kernelized fall below the slice everywhere. These can be ignored by a judicious choice of the space X and the allowable kernel widths. 2 3 4 ? Gamma process parameter ?: The conditional distribution for ? is given by R? p(? | K, V, ?, ?) ? p(?)?K e??[ R R ?0 (d?)+ 0L X (1?exp (?V T K? ?))R0 (d?)?0 (d?)] L (8) If p(?) = Ga(a0 , b0 ) then the posterior is also a gamma distribution with parameters a = a0 + K Z ? Z Z b = b0 + ?0 (d?) + X L (9) L (1 ? exp(?V T K? ?))?0 (d?)R0 (d?) (10) 0 where the first integral in Eq. 10 can be evaluated for many processes of interest and the second integral can be evaluated as in Eq. 6. ? Raw atom sizes ?m : The posterior for atoms associated with occupied clusters is given by ! G PG X n g,m p(?m | ng,m , ?m , V, B+ ) ? ?m g=1 exp ??m Vg K(x?g , ?m ) ?0 (?m ) (11) g=1 For an underlying gamma or generalized gamma process, the posterior of ?m will be given by a gamma distribution due to conjugacy [16]. There will also be a number of atoms with raw size ?m > L that do not R have associated data. The number of such atoms is Poisson distributed with mean ? A exp(?V T K? ?)?0 (d?)R0 (d?), where A = {(?, ?) : K(x?g , ?)? > L, for some g} and which can be computed using the approach described for Eq. 6. ? Raw atom covariate locations ?m : Since we assume a finite set of covariate locations, we can sample ?m according to the discrete distribution ! G K Y X ? ng,m ? p(?m | ng,m , V, B+ ) ? K(xg , ?k ) exp ??m Vg K(xg , ?m ) R0 (?m ) g=1 g=1 (12) ? Slice variables ug,i : Sampled as ug,i |{?}, {?}, sg,i ? Un[0, K(x?g , ?sg,i )?sg,i ]. ? Cluster allocations sg,i : The prior on sg,i cancels with the prior on ug,i , yielding p(sg,i = m | yg,i , ug,i , ?m , ?m , ?m ) ? q(yg,i |?m , ?m )1 ug,i < K(x?g , ?m )?m  (13) where only a finite number of m need be evaluated. ? Parameter locations: Can be sampled as in a standard mixture model [16]. 4 Experiments We evaluate the performance of the proposed slice sampler in the setting of covariate dependent density estimation. We assume the statistical model in Eq. 4 and consider a univariate Gaussian distribution as the data generating distribution. We use both synthetic and real data sets in our experiments and compare the slice sampler to a Gibbs sampler for a finite approximation to the model (see the supplement for details of the model and sampler) and to the original SNGP sampler. We assess the mixing characteristics of the sampler using the integrated autocorrelation time ? of the number of clusters used by the sampler at each iteration after a burn-in period, and by the predictive quality of the collective samples on held-out data. The integrated autocorrelation time of samples drawn from an MCMC algorithm controls the Monte Carlo error inherent in a sample drawn from the MCMC algorithm. It can be shown that in a set of T samples from the MCMC algorithm, there are in effect only T /(2? ) ?independent? samples. Therefore, lower values of ? are deemed better. We obtain an estimate ?? of the integrated autocorrelation time following [19]. We assess the predictive performance of the collected samples from the various algorithms by computing a Monte Carlo estimate of the predictive log-likelihood of a held-out data point under the model. Specifically, for a held out point y ? we have ? (t) ? T M   X X 1 (t) (t) ?. (14) log p(y ? |y) ? log ? wm q y ? |?m , ?(t) m T t=1 m=1 5 Table 1: Results of the samplers using different kernels. Entries are of the form ?average predictive density / average number of clusters used / ??? where two standard errors are shown in parentheses. Results are averaged over 5 hold-out data sets. Synthetic CMB Motorcycle Slice Box -2.70 (0.12) / 11.6 / 2442 -0.15 (0.11) / 14.4 / 2465 -0.90 (0.28) / 10.3 / 2414 SNGP -2.67 (0.12) / 43.3 / 2488 -0.22 (0.14) / 79.1 / 2495 NA Finite Box -2.78 (0.15) / 11.7 / 2497 -0.41 (0.14) / 18.2 / 2444 -1.19 (0.16) / 16.4 / 2352 Slice SE NA -0.28 (0.07) / 14.7 / 2447 -0.87 (0.28) / 8.2 / 2377 Finite SE NA -0.29 (0.05) / 9.5 / 2491 -0.99 (0.19) / 7.3 / 2159 10 40 ?10 ?20 30 600 Frequency # used clusters Observation 0 800 Slice SNGP Finite 35 25 20 400 200 15 ?30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Time 0.8 1 10 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Iteration 0 ?25 ?20 ?15 log(L) ?10 ?5 Figure 1: Left: Synthetic data. Middle: Trace plots of the number of clusters used by the three samplers. Right: Histogram of truncation point L. (t) The weight wm is the probability of choosing atom m for sample t. We did not use the RaoBlackwellized estimator to compute Eq. 14 for the slice sampler to achieve fair comparisons (see the supplement for the results using the Rao-Blackwellized estimator). 4.1 Synthetic data We generated synthetic data from a dynamic mixture model with 12 components (Figure 1). Each component has an associated location, ?k , that can take the value of any of ten uniformly spaced time stamps, tj ? [0, 1]. The components are active according to the kernel K(x, ?k ) = 1 (|x ? ?k | < .2) ? i.e. components are active for two time stamps around their location. At each time stamp, tj , we generate 60 data points. For each data point we choose a component, k, such that 1 (|tj ? ?k | < .2) and then generate that data point from a Gaussian distribution with mean ?k and variance 10. We use 50 of the generated data points per time stamp as a training set and hold out 10 data points for prediction. Since the SNGP is a special case of the normalized KGaP, we compare the finite and slice samplers, which are both conditional samplers, to the original marginal sampler proposed in [4]. We use the basic version of the SNGP that uses fixed-width kernels, as we assume fixed width kernel functions for simplicity. The implementation of the SNGP sampler we used also only allows for fixed component variances, so we fix all ?k = 1/10, the true data generating precision. We use the true kernel function that was used to generate the data as the kernel for the normalized KGaP model. We ran the slice sampler for 10, 000 burn-in iterations and subsequently collected 5, 000 samples. We truncated the finite version of the model to 100 atoms and ran the sampler for 5, 000 burn-in iterations and collected 5, 000 samples. The SNGP sampler was run for 2, 000 burn-in iterations and 5, 000 samples were collected4 . The predictive log-likelihood, mean number of clusters used and ?? are shown in the ?Synthetic? column in Table 1. We see that all three algorithms find a region of the posterior that gives predictive estimates of a similar quality. The autocorrelation estimates for the three samplers are also very similar. This might seem surprising, since the SNGP sampler uses sophisticated split-merge moves to improve mixing, which have no analogue in the slice sampler. In addition, we note that although the per-iteration 4 No thinning was performed in any of the experiments in this paper. 6 mixing performance is comparable, the average time per 100 iterations for the slice sampler was ? 10 seconds, for the SNGP sampler was ? 30 seconds and for the finite sampler was ? 200 seconds. Even with only 100 atoms the finite sampler is much more expensive than the slice and SNGP5 samplers. We also observe (Figure 1) that both the slice and finite samplers use essentially the true number of components underlying the data and that the SNGP sampler uses on average twice as many components. The finite sampler finds a posterior mode with 13 clusters and rarely makes small moves from that mode. The slice sampler explores modes with 10-17 clusters, but never makes large jumps away from this region. The SNGP sampler explores the largest number of used clusters ranging from 23-40, however, it has not explored regions that use less clusters. Figure 1 also depicts the distribution of the variable truncation level L over all samples in the slice sampler. This suggests that a finite model that discards atoms with ?k < 10?18 introduces negligible truncation error. However, this value of L corresponds to ? 1018 atoms in the finite model which is computationally intractable. To keep the computation times reasonable we were only able to use 100 atoms, a far cry from the number implied by L. In Figure 2 (Left) we plot estimates of the predictive density at each time stamp for the slice (a), finite (b) and SNGP (c) samplers. All three samplers capture the evolving structure of the distribution. However, the finite sampler seems unable to discard unneeded components. This is evidenced by the small mass of probability that spans times [0, 0.8] when the data that the component explains only exists at times [0.2, 0.5]. The slice and SNGP samplers seem to both provide reasonable explanations for the distribution, with the slice sampler tending to provide smoother estimates. 4.2 Real data As well as providing an alternative inference method for existing models, our slice sampler can be used in a range of models that fall under the general class of KNRMs. To demonstrate this, we use the finite and slice versions of our sampler to learn two kernel DPs, one using a box kernel, K(x, ?) = 1 (|x ? ?| < 0.2) (the setting in the SNGP), and the other using a square exponential kernel K(x, ?) = exp(?200(x ? ?)2 ), which has support approximately on [? ? .2, ? + .2]. The kernel was chosen to be somewhat comparable to the box kernel, however, this kernel allows the influence of an atom to diminish gradually as opposed to being constant. We compare to the SNGP sampler for the box kernel model, but note that this sampler is not applicable to the exponential kernel model. We compare these approaches on two real-world datasets: ? Cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB)[20]: TT power spectrum measurements, ?, from the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) at various ?multipole moments?, denoted M . Both variables are considered continuous and exhibit dependence. We rescale M to be in [0, 1] and standardize ? to have mean 0 and unit variance. ? Motorcycle crash data [21]. This data set records the head acceleration, A, at various times during a simulated motorcycle crash. We normalize time to [0, 1] and standardize A to have mean 0 and unit variance. Both datasets exhibit local heteroskedasticity, which cannot be captured using the SNGP. For the CMB data, we consider only the first 600 multipole moments, where the variance is approximately constant, allowing us to compare the SNGP sampler to the other algorithms. For all models we fixed the observation variance to 0.02, which we estimated from the standardized data. To ease the computational burden of the samplers we picked 18 time stamps in [0.05, 0.95], equally spaced 0.05 apart and assigned each observation to the time stamp closest to its associated value of M . This step is by no means necessary, but the running time of the algorithms improves significantly. For the 5 Sampling the cluster means and assignments is the slowest step for the SNGP sampler taking about 3 seconds. The times reported here only performed this step every 25 iterations achieving reasonable results. If this step were performed every iteration the results may improve, but the computation time will explode. 7 sampler 1 finite slice 0 sngp ?1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 multipole moment TT power spectrum TT power spectrum 2 2 1 sampler finite 0 slice ?1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 multipole moment Figure 2: Left: Predictive density at each time stamp for synthetic data using the slice (a), finite (b) and SNGP (c) samplers. The scales of all three axis are identical. Middle: Mean and 95% CI of predictive distribution for all three samplers on CMB data using the box kernel. Right: Mean and 95% CI of predictive distribution using the square exponential kernel. motorcycle data, there was no regime of constant variance, so we only compare the slice and finite truncation samplers6 . For each dataset and each model/sampler, the held-out predictive log-likelihood, the mean number of used clusters and ?? are reported in Table 1. The mixing characteristics of the chain are similar to those obtained for the synthetic data. We see in Table 1 that the box kernel and the square exponential kernel produce similar results on the CMB data. However, the kernel width was not optimized and different values may prove to yield superior results. For the motorcycle data we see a noticeable difference between using the box and square exponential kernels where using the latter improves the held-out predictive likelihood and results in both samplers using fewer components on average. Figure 2 shows the predictive distributions obtained on the CMB data. Looking at the mean and 95% CI of the predictive distribution (middle) we see that when using the box kernel the SNGP actually fits the data the best. This is most likely due to the fact that the SNGP is using more atoms than the slice or finite samplers. We show that the square exponential kernel (right) gives much smoother estimates and appears to fit the data better, using the same number of atoms as were learned with the box kernel (see Table 1). We note that the slice sampler took ? 20 seconds per 100 iterations while the finite sampler used ? 150 seconds. 5 Conclusion We presented the class of normalized kernel CRMs, a type of dependent normalized random measure. This class generalizes previous work by allowing more flexibility in the underlying CRM and kernel function used to induce dependence. We developed a slice sampler to perform inference on the infinite dimensional measure and compared this method with samplers for a finite approximation and for the SNGP. We found that the slice sampler yields samples with competitive predictive accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. There are many directions for future research. Incorporating reversible-jump moves [22] such as split-merge proposals should allow the slice sampler to explore larger regions of the parameter space with a limited decrease in computational efficiency. A similar methodology may yield efficient inference algorithms for KCRMs such as the KBP, extending the existing slice sampler for the Indian Buffet Process [23]. Acknowledgments NF was funded by grant AFOSR FA9550-11-1-0166. SW was funded by grants NIH R01GM087694 and AFOSR FA9550010247. 6 The SNGP could still be used to model this data, however, then we would be comparing the models as opposed to the samplers. 8 References [1] S.N. MacEachern. Dependent nonparametric processes. In ASA Proceedings of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1999. [2] D. Dunson. Nonparametric Bayes applications to biostatistics. In N. L. Hjort, C. Holmes, P. M?uller, and S. G. Walker, editors, Bayesian Nonparametrics. Cambridge University Press, 2010. [3] J.E. Griffin and M.F.J. Steel. Order-based dependent Dirichlet processes. JASA, 101(473):179? 194, 2006. [4] V. Rao and Y.W. Teh. Spatial normalized gamma processes. In NIPS, 2009. [5] L. Ren, Y. Wang, D. Dunson, and L. Carin. The kernel beta process. In NIPS, 2011. [6] J.F.C. Kingman. Completely random measures. Pacific Journal of Mathematics, 21(1):59?78, 1967. [7] A. Lijoi and I. Pr?unster. Models beyond the Dirichlet process. Technical Report 129, Collegio Carlo Alberto, 2009. [8] J.F.C. Kingman. Poisson processes. OUP, 1993. [9] B. Fristedt and L.F. Gray. A Modern Approach to Probability Theory. Probability and Its Applications. Birkh?auser, 1997. [10] N.L. Hjort. Nonparametric Bayes estimators based on beta processes in models for life history data. Annals of Statistics, 18:1259?1294, 1990. [11] T.S. Ferguson. A Bayesian analysis of some nonparametric problems. Annals of Statistics, 1(2):209?230, 1973. [12] E. Regazzini, A. Lijoi, and I. Pr?unster. Distributional results for means of normalized random measures with independent increments. Annals of Statistics, 31(2):pp. 560?585, 2003. [13] A. Lijoi, R.H. Mena, and I. Pr?unster. Controlling the reinforcement in Bayesian non-parametric mixture models. JRSS B, 69(4):715?740, 2007. [14] J.E. Griffin. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Dirichlet process and other time-varying processes for Bayesian nonparametric inference. Technical report, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, 2007. [15] S. Favaro and Y.W. Teh. MCMC for normalized random measure mixture models. Submitted, 2012. [16] J. E. Griffin and S. G. Walker. Posterior simulation of normalized random measure mixtures. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20(1):241?259, 2011. [17] L.F. James, A. Lijoi, and I. Pr?unster. Posterior analysis for normalized random measures with independent increments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 36(1):76?97, 2009. [18] J.E. Griffin, M. Kolossiatis, and M.F.J. Steel. Comparing distributions using dependent normalized random measure mixtures. Technical report, University of Warwick, 2010. [19] M. Kalli, J.E. Griffin, and S.G. Walker. Slice sampling mixture models. Statistics and Computing, 21(1):93?105, 2011. [20] C.L. Bennett et al. First year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations: Preliminary maps and basic results. Astrophysics Journal Supplement, 148:1, 2003. [21] B.W. Silverman. Some aspects of the spline smoothing approach to non-parametric curve fitting. JRSS B, 47:1?52, 1985. [22] P.J. Green. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination. Biometrika, 82(4):711?732, 1995. [23] Y.W. Teh, D. G?or?ur, and Z. Ghahramani. Stick-breaking construction for the Indian buffet process. In AISTATS, volume 11, 2007. 9
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Information Measure Based Skeletonisation Sowmya Ramachandran Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX 78712-1188 Lorien Y. Pratt * Department of Computer Science Rutgers University New Brunswick, NJ 08903 Abstract Automatic determination of proper neural network topology by trimming over-sized networks is an important area of study, which has previously been addressed using a variety of techniques. In this paper, we present Information Measure Based Skeletonisation (IMBS), a new approach to this problem where superfluous hidden units are removed based on their information measure (1M). This measure, borrowed from decision tree induction techniques, reflects the degree to which the hyperplane formed by a hidden unit discriminates between training data classes. We show the results of applying IMBS to three classification tasks and demonstrate that it removes a substantial number of hidden units without significantly affecting network performance. 1 INTRODUCTION Neural networks can be evaluated based on their learning speed, the space and time complexity of the learned network, and generalisation performance. Pruning oversized networks (skeletonisation) has the potential to improve networks along these dimensions as follows: ? Learning Speed: Empirical observation indicates that networks which have been constrained to have fewer parameters lack flexibility during search, and so tend to learn slower. Training a network that is larger than necessary and *This work was partially supported by DOE #DE-FG02-91ER61129, through subcontract #097P753 from the University of Wisconsin. 1080 Information Measure Based Skeletonisation trimming it back to a reduced architecture could lead to improved learning speed . ? Network Complexity: Skeletonisation improves both space and time complexity by reducing the number of weights and hidden units . ? Generalisation: Skeletonisation could constrain networks to generalise better by reducing the number of parameters used to fit the data. Various techniques have been proposed for skeletonisation. One approach [Hanson and Pratt, 1989, Chauvin, 1989, Weigend et al., 1991] is to add a cost term or bias to the objective function. This causes weights to decay to zero unless they are reinforced. Another technique is to measure the increase in error caused by removing a parameter or a unit, as in [Mozer and Smolensky, 1989, Le Cun et al., 1990]. Parameters that have the least effect on the error may be pruned from the network. In this paper, we present Information Measure Based Skeletonisation (IMBS), an alternate approach to this problem, in which superfluous hidden units in a single hidden-layer network are removed based on their information measure (1M). This idea is somewhat related to that presented in [Siestma and Dow, 1991], though we use a different algorithm for detecting superfluous hidden units. We also demonstrate that when IMBS is applied to a vowel recognition task, to a subset of the Peterson-Barney 10-vowel classification problem, and to a heart disease diagnosis problem, it removes a substantial number of hidden units without significantly affecting network performance. 2 1M AND THE HIDDEN LAYER Several decision tree induction schemes use a particular information-theoretic measure, called 1M, of the degree to which an attribute separates (discriminates between the classes of) a given set of training data [Quinlan, 1986]. 1M is a measure of the information gained by knowing the value of an attribute for the purpose of classification. The higher the 1M of an attribute, the greater the uniformity of class data in the subsets of feature space it creates. A useful simplification of the sigmoidal activation function used in back-propagation networks [Rumelhart et al., 1986] is to reduce this function to a threshold by mapping activations greater than 0.5 to 1 and less than 0.5 to O. In this simplified model, the hidden units form hyperplanes in the feature space which separate data. Thus, they can be considered analogous to binary-valued attributes, and the 1M of each hidden unit can be calculated as in decision tree induction [Quinlan, 1986]. Figure 1 shows the training data for a fabricated two-feature, two-class problem and a possible configuration of the hyperplanes formed by each hidden unit at the end of training. Hyperplane h1 's higher 1M corresponds to the fact that it separates the two classes better than h2. 1081 1082 Ramachandran and Pratt 1M = .0115 1 o 1 1 1 1 Figure 1: Hyperplanes and their IM. Arrows indicate regions where hidden units have activations> 0.5. 3 1M TO DETECT SUPERFLUOUS HIDDEN UNITS One of the important goals of training is to adjust the set of hyperplanes formed by the hidden layer so that they separate the training data. 1 We define superfluous units as those whose corresponding hyperplanes are not necessary for the proper separation of training data. For example, in Figure 1, hyperplane h2 is superfluous because: 1. hI separates the data better than h2 and 2. h2 does not separate the data in either of the two regions created by hI. The IMBS algorithm to identify superfluous hidden units, shown in Figure 2, recursively finds hidden units that are necessary to separate the data and classifies the rest as superfluous. It is similar to the decision tree induction algorithm in [Quinlan, 1986]. The hidden layer is skeletonised by removing the superfluous hidden units. Since the removal of these units perturbs the inputs to the output layer, the network will have to be trained further after skeletonisation to recover lost performance. 4 RESULTS We have tested IMBS on three classification problems, as follows: 1. Train a network to an acceptable level of performance. 2. Identify and remove superfluous hidden units. 3. Train the skeletonised network further to an acceptable level of performance. We will refer to the stopping point of training at step 1 as the skeletonisation point (SP); further training will be referred to in terms of SP + number of training epochs. 1 This again is not strictly true for hidden units with sigmoidal activation, but holds for the approximate model. Information Measure Based Skeletonisation Input: Training data Hidden unit activations for each training data pattern. Output: List of superfluous hidden units. Method: main ident-superfluous-hu begin data-set~ training data useful-hu-list~ nil pick-best-hu (data-set, useful-hu-list) output hidden units that are not in useful-hu-list end procedure pick-best-hu(data-set, useful-hu-list) begin if all the data in data-set belong to the same class then return Calculate 1M of each hidden unit. hl~ hidden unit with best 1M. add hl to the useful-hu list dsl~ all the data in data-set for which hl has an activation of> .5 ds2~ all the data in data-set for which hl has an activation of <= .5 pick-best-hu(dsl, useful-hu-list) pick-best-hu(ds2, useful-hu-list) end Figure 2: IMBS: An Algorithm for Identifying Superfluous Hidden Units For each problem, data was divided into a training set and a test set. Several networks were run for a few epochs with different back-propagation parameters 'rJ (learning rate) and 0: (momentum) to determine their locally optimal values. For each problem, we chose an initial architecture and trained 10 networks with different random initial weights for the same number of epochs. The performances of the original (i.e. the network before skeletonisation) and the skeletonised networks, measured as number of correct classifications of the training and test sets, was mea.sured both at SP and after further training. The retrained skeletonised network was compared with the original network at SP as well as the original network that had been trained further for the same number of weight updates. 2 All training was via the standard back-propagation algorithm with a sigmoidal activation function and updates after every pattern presentation [Rumelhart et al., 1986]. A paired T-test [Siegel, 1988] was used to measure the significance of the difference in performance between the skeletonised and original networks. Our experimental results are summarised in Figure 3, and Tables 1 and 2; detailed experimental conditions are given below. 2This was ensured by adjusting the number of epochs a network was trained after skeletonisation according to the number of hidden units in the network. Thus, a network with 10 hidden units was trained on twice as many epochs as one with 20 hidden units. 1083 1084 Ramachandran and Pratt ~ -a ji S ~ i5 u PB Vowel 0 0> 0> <Xl 18 S; ~ EJ 240000 -.:> Q) en ~ en =:. :r ~ C> 240000 <Xl 0> 300000 ~ 8[ 32000 Watght Updatas Heart disease 8 Robinson vowel 9.0 A5 1 .1 AA 1.3 AA 1 .5 AA 166000 172000 9 .0 &5 1 .1 &6 1 .3 &6 1 .5 &6 166000 17600C C> eN C> Waight Updata& 174000 Watght Updata& Figure 3: Summary of experimental results. Circles represent skeletonised networks; triangles represent unskeletonised networks for comparison. Note that when performance drops upon skeletonisation, the original performance level is recovered within a few weight updates. In all cases, hidden unit count is reduced. 4.1 PETERSON-BARNEY DATA IMBS was first evaluated on a 3-class subset of the Peterson-Barney 10-vowel classification data set, originally described in [Peterson and Barney, 1952], and recreated by [Watrous, 1991]. This data consists of the formant values F1 and F2 for each of two repetitions of each of ten vowels by 76 speaker (1520 utterances). The vowels were pronounced in isolated words consisting of the consonant "h", followed by a vowel, followed by "d". This set was randomly divided into a ~,~ training/test split, with 298 and 150 patterns, respectively. Our initial architecture was a fully connected network with 2 input units, one hidden layer with 20 units, and 3 output units. We trained the networks with T] 1.0 and ex = 0.001 until the TSS (total sum of squared error) scores seemed to reach a plateau. The networks were trained for 2000 epochs and then skeletonised. = The skeletonisation procedure removed an average of 10.1 (50.5%) hidden units. Though the average performance of the skeletonised networks was worse than that of the original, this difference was not statistically significant (p 0.001). = 4.2 ROBINSON VOWEL RECOGNITION Using data from [Robinson, 1989], we trained networks to perform speaker independent recognition of the 11 steady-state vowels of British English using a training set of LPC-derived log area ratios. Training and test sets were as used by [Robinson, 1989], with 528 and 462 patterns, respectively. The initial network architecture was fully connected, with 10 input units, 11 output units, and 30 hidden units. Networks were trained with T] 1.0 and ex 0.01, until the performance on the training set exceeded 95%. The networks were trained for 1500 epochs and then skeletonised. The skeletonisation procedure removed an average of 5.8 (19.3%) hidden units. The difference in performance was not statistically significant (p 0.001). = = = Information Measure Based Skeletonisation Table 1: Performance of unskeletonised networks Table 2: Mean difference in the number of correct classifications between the original and skeletonised networks. Positive differences indicate that the original network did better after further training. The numbers in parentheses indicate the 99.9% confidence intervals for the mean. comparison points Original Skeletonised Peterson-Barney SP SP SP SP+1010 SP+500 SP+1010 Robinson Vowel SP SP SP SP+620 SP+500 SP+620 Heart Disease SP SP SP SP+33 SP+14 SP+33 mean difference Training set 3.10 l-0.83, 7.03J -0.1 [-1.76, 1.56] 0.20 [-1.52, 1.91] J I Test set -0.10 l-2.05, 1.84J 0.7 [-0.73, 2.13] 0.30 [-1.30, 1.90] J 1.70 -2.40, 5.80) -8.2 [-20.33, 3.93] -0.30 [ -3.15, 2.55] 2.40 -2.39, 7.19J -4.4 [-18.26, 9.46] -0.301-8.36, 7.76] 20.80 J-5.66, 47.26J o [-4.28, +4.28] 0.60 [ -4.55, 5.75] 12.20 l-1.65, 26.051 o [-2.85, 2.85] 0.40 [ -3.03, 3.83] I 1085 1086 Ramachandran and Pratt 4.3 HEART DISEASE DATA Using a 14-attribute set of diagnosis information, we trained networks on a heart disease diagnosis problem [Detrano et al., 1989]. Training and test data were chosen randomly in a ~, ~ split of 820 and 410 patterns, respectively. The initial networks were fully connected, with 25 input units, one hidden layer with 20 units, and 2 output units. The networks were trained with a = 1.25 and 'rJ = 0.005. Training was stopped when the TSS scores seemed to reach a plateau. The networks were trained for 300 epochs and then skeletonised. The skeletonisation procedure removed an average of 9.6 (48%) hidden units. Here, removing superfluous units degraded the performance by an average of 2.5% on the training set and 3.0% on the test set. However, after being trained further for only 30 epochs, the skeletonised networks recovered to do as well as the original networks. 5 CONCLUSION AND EXTENSIONS We have introduced an algorithm, called IMBS, which uses an information measure borrowed from decision tree induction schemes to skeletonise over-sized backpropagation networks. Empirical tests showed that IMBS removed a substantial percentage of hidden units without significantly affecting the network performance. Potential extensions to this work include: ? Using decision tree reduction schemes to allow for trimming not only superfluous hyperplanes, but also those responsible for overfitting the training data, in an effort to improve generalisation. ? Extending IMBS to better identify superfluous hidden units under conditions of less than 100% performance on the training data. ? Extending IMBS to work for networks with more than one hidden layer. ? Performing more rigorous empirical evaluation. ? Making IMBS less sensitive to the hyperplane-as-threshold assumption. In particular, a model with variable-width hyperplanes (depending on the sigmoidal gain) may be effective. Acknowledgements Our thanks to Haym Hirsh and Tom Lee for insightful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, to Christian Roehr for an update to the IMBS algorithm, and to Vince Sgro, David Lubinsky, David Loewenstern and Jack Mostow for feedback on later drafts. Matthias Pfister, M.D., of University Hospital in Zurich, Switzerland was responsible for collection of the heart disease data. We used software distributed with [McClelland and Rumelhart, 1988] for many of our simulations. Information Measure Based Skeletonisation References [Chauvin, 1989] Chauvin, Y. 1989. A back-propagation algorithm with optimal use of hidden units. In Touretzky, D. S., editor 1989, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA. 519-526. [Detrano et al., 1989] Detrano, R.j Janosi, A.j Steinbrunn, W.j Pfisterer, M.; Schmid, J.; Sandhu, S.; Guppy, K.; Lee, S.; and Froelicher, V. 1989. International application of a new probability algorithm for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology 64:304-310. [Hanson and Pratt, 1989] Hanson, Stephen Jose and Pratt, Lorien Y. 1989. Comparing biases for minimal network construction with back-propagation. In Touretzky, D. S., editor 1989, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA. 177-185. [Le Cun et al., 1990] Le Cun, Yanni Denker, John; Solla, Sara A.; Howard, Richard E.; and Jackel, Lawrence D. 1990. Optimal brain damage. In Touretzky, D. S., editor 1990, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA. [McClelland and Rumelhart, 1988] McClelland, James L. and Rumelhart, David E. 1988. Explorations in Parallel Distributed Processing: A Handbook of Models, Programs, and Exercises. Cambridge, MA, The MIT Press. [Mozer and Smolensky, 1989] Mozer, Michael C. and Smolensky, Paul 1989. Skeletonization: A technique for trimming the fat from a network via relevance assessment. In Touretzky, D. S., editor 1989, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA. 107-115. [Peterson and Barney, 1952] Peterson, and Barney, 1952. Control methods used in a study of the vowels. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 24(2):175-184. [Quinlan, 1986] Quinlan, J. R. 1986. Induction of decision trees. Machine Learning 1(1):81-106. [Robinson, 1989] Robinson, Anthony John 1989. Dynamic Error Propagation Networks. Ph.D. Dissertation, Cambridge University, Engineering Department. [Rumelhart et al., 1986] Rumelhart, D.; Hinton, G.; and Williams, R. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533-536. [Siegel, 1988] Siegel, Andrew F. 1988. Statistics and data analysis: An Introduction. John Wiley and Sons. chapter 15, 336-339. [Siestma and Dow, 1991] Siestma, Jocelyn and Dow, Robert J. F. 1991. Creating artificial neural networks that generalize. Neural Networks 4:67-79. [Watrous, 1991] Watrous, Raymond L. 1991. Current status of peterson-barney vowel formant data. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 89(3):2459-60. [Weigend et al., 1991] Weigend, Andreas S.; Rumelhart, David E.; and Huberman, Bernardo A. 1991. Generalization by weight-elimination with application to forecasting. In Lippmann, R. P.; Moody, J. E.; and Touretzky, D. S., editors 1991, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 3. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA. 875-882. 1087
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Non-linear Metric Learning Dor Kedem, Stephen Tyree, Kilian Q. Weinberger Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Engi. Washington U. St. Louis, MO 63130 kedem.dor,swtyree,[email protected] Fei Sha Dept. of Comp. Sci. U. of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089 [email protected] Gert Lanckriet Dept. of Elec. & Comp. Engineering U. of California La Jolla, CA 92093 [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we introduce two novel metric learning algorithms, ?2 -LMNN and GB-LMNN, which are explicitly designed to be non-linear and easy-to-use. The two approaches achieve this goal in fundamentally different ways: ?2 -LMNN inherits the computational benefits of a linear mapping from linear metric learning, but uses a non-linear ?2 -distance to explicitly capture similarities within histogram data sets; GB-LMNN applies gradient-boosting to learn non-linear mappings directly in function space and takes advantage of this approach?s robustness, speed, parallelizability and insensitivity towards the single additional hyperparameter. On various benchmark data sets, we demonstrate these methods not only match the current state-of-the-art in terms of kNN classification error, but in the case of ?2 -LMNN, obtain best results in 19 out of 20 learning settings. 1 Introduction How to compare examples is a fundamental question in machine learning. If an algorithm could perfectly determine whether two examples were semantically similar or dissimilar, most subsequent machine learning tasks would become trivial (i.e., a nearest neighbor classifier will achieve perfect results). Guided by this motivation, a surge of recent research [10, 13, 15, 24, 31, 32] has focused on Mahalanobis metric learning. The resulting methods greatly improve the performance of metric dependent algorithms, such as k-means clustering and kNN classification, and have gained popularity in many research areas and applications within and beyond machine learning. One reason for this success is the out-of-the-box usability and robustness of several popular methods to learn these linear metrics. So far, non-linear approaches [6, 18, 26, 30] to metric learning have not managed to replicate this success. Although more expressive, the optimization problems are often expensive to solve and plagued by sensitivity to many hyper-parameters. Ideally, we would like to develop easy-to-use black-box algorithms that learn new data representations for the use of established metrics. Further, non-linear transformations should be applied depending on the specifics of a given data set. In this paper, we introduce two novel extensions to the popular Large Margin Nearest Neighbors (LMNN) framework [31] which provide non-linear capabilities and are applicable out-of-the-box. The two algorithms follow different approaches to achieve this goal: (i) Our first algorithm, ?2 -LMNN is specialized for histogram data. It generalizes the non-linear ?2 -distance and learns a metric that strictly preserve the histogram properties of input data on a probability simplex. It successfully combines the simplicity and elegance of the LMNN objective and the domain-specific expressiveness of the ?2 -distance. 1 (ii) Our second algorithm, gradient boosted LMNN (GB-LMNN) employs a non-linear mapping combined with a traditional Euclidean distance function. It is a natural extension of LMNN from linear to non-linear mappings. By training the non-linear transformation directly in function space with gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRT) [11] the resulting algorithm inherits the positive aspects of GBRT?its insensitivity to hyper-parameters, robustness against overfitting, speed and natural parallelizability [28]. Both approaches scale naturally to medium-sized data sets, can be optimized using standard techniques and only introduce a single additional hyper-parameter. We demonstrate the efficacy of both algorithms on several real-world data sets and observe two noticeable trends: i) GB-LMNN (with default settings) achieves state-of-the-art k-nearest neighbor classification errors with high consistency across all our data sets. For learning tasks where non-linearity is not required, it reduces to LMNN as a special case. On more complex data sets it reliably improves over linear metrics and matches or out-performs previous work on non-linear metric learning. ii) For data sampled from a simplex, ?2 -LMNN is strongly superior to alternative approaches that do not explicitly incorporate the histogram aspect of the data?in fact it obtains best results in 19/20 learning settings. 2 Background and Notation Let {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )} ? Rd ?C be labeled training data with discrete labels C = {1, . . . , c}. Large margin nearest neighbors (LMNN) [30, 31] is an algorithm to learn a Mahalanobis metric specifically to improve the classification error of k-nearest neighbors (kNN) [7] classification. As the kNN rule relies heavily on the underlying metric (a test input is classified by a majority vote amongst its k nearest neighbors), it is a good indicator for the quality of the metric in use. The Mahalanobis metric can be viewed as a straight-forward generalization of the Euclidean metric, DL (xi , xj ) = kL(xi ? xj )k2 , (1) parameterized by a matrix L ? Rd?d , which in the case of LMNN is learned such that the linear transformation x ? Lx better represents similarity in the target domain. In the remainder of this section we briefly review the necessary terminology and basic framework behind LMNN and refer the interested reader to [31] for more details. Local neighborhoods. LMNN identifies two types of neighborhood relations between an input xi and other inputs in the data set: For each xi , as a first step, k dedicated target neighbors are identified prior to learning. These are the inputs that should ideally be the actual nearest neighbors after applying the transformation (we use the notation j i to indicate that xj is a target neighbor of xi ). A common heuristic for choosing target neighbors is picking the k closest inputs (according to the Euclidean distance) to a given xi within the same class. The second type of neighbors are impostors. These are inputs that should not be among the k-nearest neighbors ? defined to be all inputs from a different class that are within the local neighborhood of xi . LMNN optimization. The LMNN objective has two terms, one for each neighborhood objective: First, it reduces the distance between an instance and its target neighbors, thus pulling them closer and making the input?s local neighborhood smaller. Second, it moves impostor neighbors (i.e., differently labeled inputs) farther away so that the distances to impostors should exceed the distances to target neighbors by a large margin. Weinberger et. al [31] combine these two objectives into a single unconstrained optimization problem: X X  min DL (xi , xj )2 (2) 1 + DL (xi , xj )2 ? DL (xi , xk )2 + + ? L | {z } i,j:j i k : yi 6=yk pull target neighbor xj closer | {z } push impostor xk away, beyond target neighbor xj by a large margin ` The parameter ? defines a trade-off between the two objectives and [x]+ is defined as the hinge-loss [x]+ = max(0, x). The optimization (2) can be transformed into a semidefinite program (SDP) [31] for which a global solution can be found efficiently. The large margin in (2) is set to 1 as its exact value only impacts the scale of L and not the kNN classifier. Dimensionality reduction. As an extension to the original LMNN formulation, [26, 30] show that with L ? Rr?d with r < d, LMNN learns a projection into a lower-dimensional space Rr that still represents domain specific similarities. While this low-rank constraint breaks the convexity of the optimization problem, significant speed-ups [30] can be obtained when the kNN classifier is applied in the r-dimensional space ? especially when combined with special-purpose data structures [33]. 2 3 ?2 -LMNN: Non-linear Distance Functions on the Probability Simplex The original LMNN algorithm learns a linear transformation L ? Rd?d that captures semantic similarity for kNN classification on data in some Euclidean vector space Rd . In this section we extend this formulation to settings in which data are sampled from a probability simplex S d = {x ? Rd |x ? 0, x> 1 = 1}, where 1 ? Rd denotes the vector of all-ones. Each input xi ? S d can be interpreted as a histogram over d buckets. Such data are ubiquitous in computer vision where the histograms can be distributions over visual codebooks [27] or colors [25], in text-data as normalized bag-of-words or topic assign- Figure2 1: A schematic illustration of the ? -LMNN optimization. The mapments [3], and many other fields [9, 17, 21]. ping is constrained to preserve all inputs Histogram distances. The abundance of such data has on the simplex S 3 (grey surface). The sparked the development of several specialized distance arrows indicate the push (red and yelmetrics designed to compare histograms. Examples are low) and pull (blue) forces from the ?2 Quadratic-Form distance [16], Earth Mover?s Distance LMNN objective. [21], Quadratic-Chi distance family [20] and ?2 histogram distance [16]. We focus explicitly on the latter. Transforming the inputs with a linear transformation learned with LMNN will almost certainly result in a loss of their histogram properties ? and the ability to use such distances. In this section, we introduce our first non-linear extension for LMNN, to address this issue. In particular, we propose two significant changes to the original LMNN formulation: i) we learn a constrained mapping that keeps the transformed data on the simplex (illustrated in Figure 1), and ii) we optimize the kNN classification performance with respect to the non-linear ?2 histogram distance directly. ?2 histogram distance. We focus on the ?2 histogram distance, whose origin is the ?2 statistical hypothesis test [19], and which has successfully been applied in many domains [8, 27, 29]. The ?2 distance is a bin-to-bin distance measurement, which takes into account the size of the bins and their differences. Formally, the ?2 distance is a well-defined metric ?2 : S d ? [0, 1] defined as [20] ?2 (xi , xj ) = d 1 X ([xi ]f ? [xj ]f )2 , 2 [xi ]f + [xj ]f (3) f =1 where [xi ]f indicates the f th feature value of the vector xi . Generalized ?2 distance. First, analogous to the generalized Euclidean metric in (1), we generalize the ?2 distance with a linear transformation and introduce the pseudo-metric ?2L (xi , xj ), defined as ?2L (xi , xj ) = ?2 (Lxi , Lxj ). (4) The ?2 distance is only a well-defined metric within the simplex S d and therefore we constrain L to map any x onto S d . We define the set of such simplex-preserving linear transformations as P = {L ? Rd?d : ?x ? S d , Lx ? S d }. ?2 -LMNN Objective. To optimize the transformation L with respect to the ?2 histogram distance directly, we replace the Mahalanobis distance DL in (2) with ?2L and obtain the following: X X   min ?2L (xi , xj ) + ? ` + ?2L (xi , xj ) ? ?2L (xi , xk ) + . (5) L?P i,j: j i k: yi 6=yk Besides the substituted distance function, there are two important changes in the optimization problem (5) compared to (2). First, as mentioned before, we have an additional constraint L ? P. Second, because (4) is not linear in L> L, different values for the margin parameter ` lead to truly different solutions (which differ not just up to a scaling factor as before). We therefore can no longer arbitrarily set ` = 1. Instead, ` becomes an additional hyper-parameter of the model. We refer to this algorithm as ?2 -LMNN. Optimization. To learn (5), it can be shownP L ? P if and only if L is element-wise non-negative, i.e., L ? 0, and each column is normalized, i.e., i Lij = 1, ?j. These constraints are linear with respect 3 to L and we can optimize (5) efficiently with a projected sub-gradient method [2]. As an even faster optimization method, we propose a simple change of variables to generate an unconstrained version of (5). Let us define f : Rd?d ? P to be the column-wise soft-max operator eAij [f (A)]ij = P Akj . ke (6) By design, all columns of f (A) are normalized and every matrix entry is non-negative. The function f (?) is continuous and differentiable. By defining L = f (A) we obtain L ? P for any choice of A ? Rd?d . This allows us to minimize (5) with respect to A using unconstrained sub-gradient descent1 . We initialize the optimization with A = 10 I + 0.01 11> (where I denotes the identity matrix) to approximate the non-transformed ?2 histogram distance after the change of variable (f (A) ? I). Dimensionality Reduction. Analogous to the original LMNN formulation (described in Section 2), we can restrict from a square matrix to L ? Rr?d with r < d. In this case ?2 -LMNN learns a projection into a lower dimensional simplex L : S d ? S r . All other parts of the algorithm change analogously. This extension can be very valuable to enable faster nearest neighbor search [33] especially for time-sensitive applications, e.g., object recognition tasks in computer vision [27]. In section 6 we evaluate this version of ?2 -LMNN under a range of settings for r. 4 GB-LMNN: Non-linear Transformations with Gradient Boosting Whereas section 3 focuses on the learning scenario where a linear transformation is too general, in this section we explore the opposite case where it is too restrictive. Affine transformations preserve collinearity and ratios of distances along lines ? i.e., inputs on a straight line remain on a straight line and their relative distances are preserved. This can be too restrictive for data where similarities change locally (e.g., because similar data lie on non-linear sub-manifolds). Chopra et al. [6] pioneered non-linear metric learning, using convolutional neural networks to learn embeddings for faceverification tasks. Inspired by their work, we propose to optimize the LMNN objective (2) directly in function space with gradient boosted CART trees [11]. Combining the learned transformation ?(x) : Rd ? Rd with a Euclidean distance function has the capability to capture highly non-linear similarity relations. It can be optimized using standard techniques, naturally scales to large data sets while only introducing a single additional hyper-parameter in comparison with LMNN. Generalized LMNN. To generalize the LMNN objective 2 to a non-linear transformation ?(?), we denote the Euclidean distance after the transformation as D? (xi , xj ) = k?(xi ) ? ?(xj )k2 , (7) which satisfies all properties of a well-defined pseudo-metric in the original input space. To optimize the LMNN objective directly with respect to D? , we follow the same steps as in Section 3 and substitute D? for DL in (2). The resulting unconstrained loss function becomes X X  L(?) = 1 + k?(xi )??(xj )k22 ? k?(xi )??(xk )k22 + . (8) k?(xi )??(xj )k22 + ? i,j: j i k: yi 6=yk In its most general form, with an unspecified mapping ?, (8) unifies most of the existing variations of LMNN metric learning. The original linear LMNN mapping [31] is a special case where ?(x) = Lx. Kernelized versions [5, 12, 26] are captured by ?(x) = L?(x), producing the kernel K(xi , xj ) = ?(xi )> ?(xj ) = ?(xi )> L> L?(xj ). The embedding of Globerson and Roweis [14] corresponds to the most expressive mapping function ?(xi ) = zi , where each input xi is transformed independently to a new location zi to satisfy similarity constraints ? without out-of-sample extensions. GB-LMNN. The previous examples vary widely in expressiveness, scalability, and generalization, largely as a consequence of the mapping function ?. It is important to find the right non-linear form for ?, and we believe an elegant solution lies in gradient boosted regression trees. Our method, termed GB-LMNN, learns a global non-linear mapping. The construction of the mapping, an ensemble of multivariate regression trees selected by gradient boosting [11], minimizes the general LMNN objective (8) directly in function space. Formally, the GB-LMNN transformation 1 The set of all possible matrices f (A) is slightly more restricted than P, as it reaches zero entries only in the limit. However, given finite computational precision, this does not seem to be a problem in practice. 4 True Gradient Approximated Gradient Itera/on ?1 Itera/on ?10 Itera/on ?20 Itera/on ?40 Itera/on ?100 Figure 2: GB-LMNN illustrated on a toy data set sampled from two concentric circles of different classes (blue and red dots). The figure depicts the true gradient (top row) with respect to each input and its least squares approximation (bottom row) with a multi-variate regression tree (depth, p = 4). PT is an additive function ? = ?0 + ? t=1 ht initialized by ?0 and constructed by iteratively adding regression trees ht of limited depth p [4], each weighted by a learning rate ?. Individually, the trees are weak learners and are capable of learning only simple functions, but additively they form powerful ensembles with good generalization to out-of-sample data. In iteration t, the tree ht is selected greedily to best minimize the objective upon its addition to the ensemble, ?t (?) = ?t?1 (?) + ?ht (?), where ht ? argmin L(?t?1 + ?h). (9) h?T p Here, T p denotes the set of all regression trees of depth p. The (approximately) optimal tree ht is found by a first-order Taylor approximation of L. This makes the optimization akin to a steepest descent step in function space, where ht is selected to approximate the negative gradient gt of the objective L(?t?1 ) with respect to the transformation learned at the previous iteration ?t?1 . Since we learn an approximation of gt as a function of the training data, sub-gradients are computed with respect to each training input xi , and approximated by the tree ht (?) in the least-squared sense, ht (?) = argmin h?T p n X ?L(?t?1 ) . (gt (xi ) ? ht (xi ))2 , where: gt (xi ) = ?? t?1 (xi ) i=1 (10) Intuitively, at each iteration, the tree ht (?) of depth p splits the input space into 2p axis-aligned regions. All inputs that fall into one region are translated by a constant vector ? consequently, the inputs in different regions are shifted in different directions. We learn the trees greedily with a modified version of the public-domain CART implementation pGBRT [28]. Optimization details. Since (8) is non-convex with respect to ?, we initialize with the linear transformation learned by LMNN, ?0 = Lx, making our method a non-linear refinement of LMNN. The only additional hyperparameter to the optimization is the maximum tree depth p to which the algorithm is not particularly sensitive (we set p = 6). 2 Figure 2 depicts a simple toy-example with concentric circles of inputs from two different classes. By design, the inputs are sampled such that the nearest neighbor for any given input is from the other class. A linear transformation is incapable of separating the two classes. However GB-LMNN produces a mapping with the desired separation. The figure illustrates the actual gradient (top row) and its approximation (bottom row). The limited-depth regression trees are unable to capture the gradient for all inputs in a single iteration. But by greedily focusing on inputs with the largest gradients or groups of inputs with the most easily encoded gradients, the gradient boosting process additively constructs the transformation function. At iteration 100, the gradients with respect to most inputs vanish, indicating that a local minimum of L(?) is almost reached ? the inputs from the two classes are separated by a large margin. 2 Here, we set the step-size, a common hyper-parameter across all variations of LMNN, to ? = 0.01. 5 Dimensionality reduction. Like linear LMNN and ?2 -LMNN, it is possible to learn a non-linear transformation to a lower dimensional space, ?(x) : Rd ? Rr , r ? d. Initialization is made with the rectangular matrix output of the dimensionality-reduced LMNN transformation, ?0 = Lx with L ? Rr?d . Training proceeds by learning trees with r- rather than d-dimensional outputs. 5 Related Work There have been previous attempts to generalize learning linear distances to nonlinear metrics. The nonlinear mapping ?(x) of eq. (7) can be implemented with kernels [5, 12, 18, 26]. These extensions have the advantages of maintaining computational tractability as convex optimization problems. However, their utility is limited inherently by the sizes of kernel matrices .Weinberger et. al [30] propose M 2 -LMNN, a locally linear extension to LMNN. They partition the space into multiple regions, and jointly learn a separate metric for each region?however, these local metrics do not give rise to a global metric and distances between inputs within different regions are not well-defined. Neural network-based approaches offer the flexibility of learning arbitrarily complex nonlinear mappings [6]. However, they often demand high computational expense, not only in parameter fitting but also in model selection and hyper-parameter tuning. Of particular relevance to our GB-LMNN work is the use of boosting ensembles to learn distances between bit-vectors [1, 23]. Note that their goals are to preserve distances computed by locality sensitive hashing to enable fast search and retrieval. Ours are very different: we alter the distances discriminatively to minimize classification error. Our work on ?2 -LMNN echoes the recent interest in learning earth-mover-distance (EMD) which is also frequently used in measuring similarities between histogram-type data [9]. Despite its name, EMD is not necessarily a metric [20]. Investigating the link between our work and those new advances is a subject for future work. 6 Experimental Results We evaluate our non-linear metric learning algorithms against several competitive methods. The effectiveness of learned metrics is assessed by kNN classification error. Our open-source implementations are available for download at http://www.cse.wustl.edu/?kilian/code/code.html. GB-LMNN We compare the non-linear global metric learned by GB-LMNN to three linear metrics: the Euclidean metric and metrics learned by LMNN [31] and Information-Theoretic Metric Learning (ITML) [10]. Both optimize similar discriminative loss functions. We also compare to the metrics learned by Multi-Metric LMNN (M 2 -LMNN) [30]. M 2 -LMNN learns |C| linear metrics, one for each the input labels. We evaluate these methods and our GB-LMNN on several medium-sized data sets: ISOLET, USPS and Letters from the UCI repository. ISOLET and USPS have predefined test sets, otherwise results are averaged over 5 train/test splits (80%/20%). A hold-out set of 25% of the training set3 is used to assign hyper-parameters and to determine feature pre-processing (i.e., feature-wise normalization). We set k = 3 for kNN classification, following [31]. Table 1 reports the means and standard errors of each approach (standard error is omitted for data with pre-defined test sets), with numbers in bold font indicating the best results up to one standard error. On all three datasets, GB-LMNN outperforms methods of learning linear metrics. This shows the benefit of learning nonlinear metrics. On Letters, GB-LMNN outperforms the second-best method M 2 -LMNN by significant margins. On the other two, GB-LMNN is as good as M 2 -LMNN. We also apply GB-LMNN to four datasets with histogram data ? setting the stage for an interesting comparison to ?2 -LMNN below. The results are displayed on the right side of the table. These datasets are popularly used in computer vision for object recognition [22]. Data instances are 800bin histograms of visual codebook entries. There are ten common categories to the four datasets and we use them for multiway classification with kNN. Neither method evaluated so far is specifically adapted to histogram features. Especially linear models, such as LMNN and ITML, are expected to fumble over the intricate similarities that such 3 In the case of ISOLET, which consists of audio signals of spoken letters by different individuals, the holdout set consisted of one speaker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able 1: kNN classification error (in %, ? standard error where applicable), for general methods (top section) and histogram methods (bottom section). Best results up to one standard error in bold. Best results among general methods for simplex data in red italics. data types may encode. As shown in the table, GB-LMNN consistently outperforms the linear methods and M 2 -LMNN. ?2 -LMNN In Table 1, we compare ?2 -LMNN to other methods for computing distances on histogram features: ?2 -distance without transformation (equivalent to our parameterized distance ?2L distance with the transformation L being the identity matrix), Quadratic-Chi-Squared (QCS) and Quadratic-Chi-Normalized (QCN) distances, defined in [20]. For QCS and QCN, we use histogram intersection as the ground distance. Unlike our approach, none of these is discriminatively learned from data. ?2 -LMNN outperforms all other methods significantly. It is also instructive to compare the results to the performance of non-histogram specific methods. We observe that LMNN performs better than the standard ?2 -distance on Amazon and Caltech. This seems to suggest that for those two datasets, linear metrics may be adequate and GB-LMNN?s nonlinear mapping might not be able to provide extra expressiveness and benefits. This is confirmed in Table 1: GB-LMNN improves performance less significantly for Amazon and Caltech than for the other two datasets, DSLR and Webcam. For the latter two, on the contrary, LMNN performs worse than ?2 -distance. In such cases, GB-LMNN?s nonlinear mapping seems more beneficial. It provides a significant performance boost, and matches the performance of ?2 -distance (up to one standard-error). Nonetheless, despite learning a nonlinear mapping, GB-LMNN still underperforms ?2 -LMNN. In other words, it is possible that no matter how flexible a nonlinear mapping could be, it is still best to use metrics that respect the semantic features of the data. Dimensionality reduction. GB-LMNN and ?2 -LMNN are both capable of performing dimensionality reduction. We compare these with three dimensionality reduction methods (PCA, LMNN, and M 2 -LMNN) on the histogram datasets and the larger UCI datasets. Each dataset is reduced to an output dimensionality of r = 10, 20, 40, 80 features. As we can see from the results in Table 6, it is fair to say that GB-LMNN performs comparably with LMNN and M 2 -LMNN, whereas ?2 -LMNN obtains at times phenomenally low kNN error rates on the histograms data sets (e.g., Webcam). This suggests that dimensionality reduction of histogram data can be highly effective, if the data properties are carefully incorporated in the process. We do not apply dimensionality reduction to Letters as it already lies in a low-dimensional space (d = 16). Sensitivity to parameters. One of the most compelling aspects of our methods is that each introduces only a single new hyper-parameter to the LMNN framework. During our experiments, ` was selected by cross-validation and p was fixed to p = 6. We found very little sensitivity in GB-LMNN to regression tree depth, while large margin size was an important but well-behaved parameter for ?2 -LMNN. Additional graphs are included in the supplementary material. 7 Conclusion and Future Work In this paper we introduced two non-linear extensions to LMNN, ?2 -LMNN and GB-LMNN. Although based on fundamentally different approaches, both algorithms lead to significant improvements over the original (linear) LMNN metrics and match or out-perform existing non-linear algorithms. The non-convexity of our proposed methods does not seem to impact their performance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able 2: kNN classification error (in %, ? standard error where applicable) with dimensionality reduction to output dimensionality r. Best results up to one standard error in bold. indicating that convex algorithms (LMNN) as initialization for more expressive non-convex methods can be a winning combination. The strong results obtained with ?2 -LMNN show that the incorporation of data-specific constraints can be highly beneficial?indicating that there is great potential for future research in specialized metric learning algorithms for specific data types. Further, the ability of ?2 -LMNN to reduce the dimensionality of data sampled from probability simplexes is highly encouraging and might lead to interesting applications in computer vision and other fields, where histogram data is ubiquitous. Here, it might be possible to reduce the running time of time critical algorithms drastically by shrinking the data dimensionality, while strictly maintaining its histogram properties. The high consistency with which GB-LMNN obtains state-of-the-art results across diverse data sets is highly encouraging. In fact, the use of ensembles of CART trees [4] not only inherits all positive aspects of gradient boosting (robustness, speed and insensitivity to hyper-parameters) but is also a natural match for metric learning. Each tree splits the space into different regions and in contrast to prior work [30], this splitting is fully automated, results in new (discriminatively learned) Euclidean representations of the data and gives rise to well-defined pseudo-metrics. 8 Acknowledgements KQW, DK and ST would like to thank NIH for their support through grant U01 1U01NS073457-01 and NSF for grants 1149882 and 1137211. FS would like to thank DARPA for its support with grant D11AP00278 and ONR for grant N00014-12-1-0066. GL was supported in part by the NSF under Grants CCF-0830535 and IIS-1054960, and by the Sloan Foundation. DK would also like to thank the McDonnell International Scholars Academy for their support. References [1] B. Babenko, S. Branson, and S. Belongie. Similarity metrics for categorization: from monolithic to category specific. In ICCV ?09, pages 293?300. IEEE, 2009. [2] A. Beck and M. Teboulle. Mirror descent and nonlinear projected subgradient methods for convex optimization. Operations Research Letters, 31(3):167?175, 2003. [3] D.M. Blei, A.Y. Ng, and M.I. Jordan. Latent dirichlet allocation. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [4] L. Breiman. Classification and regression trees. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1984. 8 [5] R. Chatpatanasiri, T. Korsrilabutr, P. Tangchanachaianan, and B. Kijsirikul. A new kernelization framework for mahalanobis distance learning algorithms. Neurocomputing, 73(10-12):1570?1579, 2010. [6] S. Chopra, R. Hadsell, and Y. LeCun. Learning a similarity metric discriminatively, with application to face verification. In CVPR ?05, pages 539?546. IEEE, 2005. [7] T. Cover and P. Hart. Nearest neighbor pattern classification. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 13(1):21?27, 1967. [8] O.G. Cula and K.J. Dana. 3D texture recognition using bidirectional feature histograms. International Journal of Computer Vision, 59(1):33?60, 2004. [9] M. Cuturi and D. Avis. Ground metric learning. arXiv preprint, arXiv:1110.2306, 2011. [10] J.V. Davis, B. Kulis, P. Jain, S. Sra, and I.S. Dhillon. Information-theoretic metric learning. In ICML ?07, pages 209?216. ACM, 2007. [11] J.H. Friedman. Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine. Annals of Statistics, pages 1189?1232, 2001. [12] C. Galleguillos, B. McFee, S. Belongie, and G. Lanckriet. 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The representer theorem for Hilbert spaces: a necessary and sufficient condition Francesco Dinuzzo and Bernhard Sch?olkopf Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems Spemannstrasse 38,72076 T?ubingen Germany [[email protected], [email protected]] Abstract The representer theorem is a property that lies at the foundation of regularization theory and kernel methods. A class of regularization functionals is said to admit a linear representer theorem if every member of the class admits minimizers that lie in the finite dimensional subspace spanned by the representers of the data. A recent characterization states that certain classes of regularization functionals with differentiable regularization term admit a linear representer theorem for any choice of the data if and only if the regularization term is a radial nondecreasing function. In this paper, we extend such result by weakening the assumptions on the regularization term. In particular, the main result of this paper implies that, for a sufficiently large family of regularization functionals, radial nondecreasing functions are the only lower semicontinuous regularization terms that guarantee existence of a representer theorem for any choice of the data. 1 Introduction Regularization [1] is a popular and well-studied methodology to address ill-posed estimation problems [2] and learning from examples [3]. In this paper, we focus on regularization problems defined over a real Hilbert space H. A Hilbert space is a vector space endowed with a inner product and a norm that is complete1 . Such setting is general enough to take into account a broad family of finitedimensional regularization techniques such as regularized least squares or support vector machines (SVM) for classification or regression, kernel principal component analysis, as well as a variety of methods based on regularization over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). The focus of our study is the general problem of minimizing an extended real-valued regularization functional J : H ? R ? {+?} of the form J(w) = f (L1 w, . . . , L` w) + ?(w), (1) where L1 , . . . , L` are bounded linear functionals on H. The functional J is the sum of an error term f , which typically depends on empirical data, and a regularization term ? that enforces certain desirable properties on the solution. By allowing the error term f to take the value +?, problems with hard constraints on the values Li w (for instance, interpolation problems) are included in the framework. Moreover, by allowing ? to take the value +?, regularization problems of the Ivanov type are also taken into account. In machine learning, the most common class of regularization problems concerns a situation where a set of data pairs (xi , yi ) is available, H is a space of real-valued functions, and the objective functional to be minimized is of the form J(w) = c ((x1 , y1 , w(x1 )), ? ? ? , (x` , y` , w(x` )) + ?(w). 1 Meaning that Cauchy sequences are convergent. 1 It is easy to see that this setting is a particular case of (1), where the dependence on the data pairs (xi , yi ) can be absorbed into the definition of f , and Li are point-wise evaluation functionals, i.e. such that Li w = w(xi ). Several popular techniques can be cast in such regularization framework. Example 1 (Regularized least squares). Also known as ridge regression when H is finitedimensional. Corresponds to the choice c ((x1 , y1 , w(x1 )), ? ? ? , (x` , y` , w(x` )) = ? ` X (yi ? w(xi ))2 , i=1 and ?(w) = kwk2 , where the complexity parameter ? ? 0 controls the trade-off between fitting of training data and regularity of the solution. Example 2 (Support vector machine). Given binary labels yi = ?1, the SVM classifier (without bias) can be interpreted as a regularization method corresponding to the choice c ((x1 , y1 , w(x1 )), ? ? ? , (x` , y` , w(x` )) = ? ` X max{0, 1 ? yi w(xi )}, i=1 and ?(w) = kwk2 . The hard-margin SVM can be recovered by letting ? ? +?. Example 3 (Kernel principal component analysis). Kernel PCA can be shown to be equivalent to a regularization problem where ( 2 P`  P` 1 1 0, w(x ) ? w(x ) =1 , i j i=1 j=1 ` ` c ((x1 , y1 , w(x1 )), ? ? ? , (x` , y` , w(x` )) = +?, otherwise and ? is any strictly monotonically increasing function of the norm kwk, see [4]. In this problem, there are no labels yi , but the feature extractor function w is constrained to produce vectors with unitary empirical variance. The possibility of choosing general continuous linear functionals Li in (1) allows to consider a much broader class of regularization problems. Some examples are the following. Example 4 (Tikhonov deconvolution). Given a ?input signal? u : X ? R, assume that the convolution u ? w is well-defined for any w ? H, and the point-wise evaluated convolution functionals Z Li w = (u ? w)(xi ) = u(s)w(xi ? s)ds, X are continuous. A possible way to recover w from noisy measurements yi of the ?output signal? is to solve regularization problems such as ! ` X 2 2 min ? (yi ? (u ? w)(xi )) + kwk , w?H i=1 where the objective functional is of the form (1). Example 5 (Learning from probability measures). In certain learning problems, it may be appropriate to represent input data as probability distributions. Given a finite set of probability measures Pi on a measurable space (X , A), where A is a ?-algebra of subsets of X , introduce the expectations Z Li w = EPi (w) = w(x)dPi (x). X Then, given output labels yi , one can learn a input-output relationship by solving regularization problems of the form  min c ((y1 , EP1 (w)), ? ? ? , (y` , EP` (w)) + kwk2 . w?H If the expectations are bounded linear functionals, such regularization functional is of the form (1). Example 6 (Ivanov regularization). By allowing the regularization term ? to take the value +?, we can also take into account the whole class of Ivanov-type regularization problems of the form min f (L1 w, . . . , L` w), subject to ?(w) ? 1, w?H by reformulating them as the minimization of a functional of the type (1), where  0, ?(w) ? 1 ?(w) = . +?, otherwise 2 1.1 The representer theorem Let?s now go back to the general formulation (1). By the Riesz representation theorem [5, 6], J can be rewritten as J(w) = f (hw, w1 i, . . . , hw, w` i) + ?(w), where wi is the representer of the linear functional Li with respect to the inner product. Consider the following definition. Definition 1. A family F of regularization functionals of the form (1) is said to admit a linear representer theorem if, for any J ? F, and any choice of bounded linear functionals Li , there exists a minimizer w? that can be written as a linear combination of the representers: w? = ` X ci wi . i=1 If a linear representer theorem holds, the regularization problem under study can be reduced to a `-dimensional optimization problem on the scalar coefficients ci , independently of the dimension of H. This property is fundamental in practice: without a finite-dimensional parametrization, it wouldn?t be possible to employ numerical optimization techniques to compute a solution. Sufficient conditions under which a family of functionals admits a representer theorem have been widely studied in the literature of statistics, inverse problems, and machine learning. The theorem also provides the foundations of learning techniques such as regularized kernel methods and support vector machines, see [7, 8, 9] and references therein. Representer theorems are of particular interest when H is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) [10]. Given a non-empty set X , a RKHS is a space of functions w : X ? R such that point-wise evaluation functionals are bounded, namely, for any x ? X , there exists a non-negative real number Cx such that |w(x)| ? Cx kwk, ?w ? H. It can be shown that a RKHS can be uniquely associated to a positive-semidefinite kernel function K : X ? X ? R (called reproducing kernel), such that the so-called reproducing property holds: w(x) = hw, Kx i, ? (x, w) ? X ? H, where the kernel sections Kx are defined as Kx (y) = K(x, y), ?y ? X . The reproducing property states that the representers of point-wise evaluation functionals coincide with the kernel sections. Starting from the reproducing property, it is also easy to show that the representer of any bounded linear functional L is given by a function KL ? H such that KL (x) = LKx , ?x ? X . Therefore, in a RKHS, the representer of any bounded linear functional can be obtained explicitly in terms of the reproducing kernel. If the regularization functional (1) admits minimizers, and the regularization term ? is a nondecreasing function of the norm, i.e. ?(w) = h(kwk), with h : R ? R ? {+?}, nondecreasing, (2) the linear representer theorem follows easily from the Pythagorean identity. A proof that the condition (2) is sufficient appeared in [11] in the case where H is a RKHS and Li are point-wise evaluation functionals. Earlier instances of representer theorems can be found in [12, 13, 14]. More recently, the question of whether condition (2) is also necessary for the existence of linear representer theorems has been investigated [15]. In particular, [15] shows that, if ? is differentiable (and certain technical existence conditions hold), then (2) is a necessary and sufficient condition for certain classes of regularization functionals to admit a representer theorem. The proof of [15] heavily exploits differentiability of ?, but the authors conjecture that the hypothesis can be relaxed. In the following, we indeed show that (2) is necessary and sufficient for the family of regularization functionals of the form (1) to admit a linear representer theorem, by merely assuming that ? is lower semicontinuous and satisfies basic conditions for the existence of minimizers. The proof is based on a characterization of radial nondecreasing functions defined on a Hilbert space. 3 2 A characterization of radial nondecreasing functions In this section, we present a characterization of radial nondecreasing functions defined over Hilbert spaces. We will make use of the following definition. Definition 2. A subset S of a Hilbert space H is called star-shaped with respect to a point z ? H if (1 ? ?)z + ?x ? S, ?x ? S, ?? ? [0, 1]. It is easy to verify that a convex set is star-shaped with respect to any point of the set, whereas a star-shaped set does not have to be convex. The following Theorem provides a geometric characterization of radial nondecreasing functions defined on a Hilbert space that generalizes the analogous result of [15] for differentiable functions. Theorem 1. Let H denote a Hilbert space such that dim H ? 2, and ? : H ? R ? {+?} a lower semicontinuous function. Then, (2) holds if and only if ?(x + y) ? max{?(x), ?(y)}, ?x, y ? H : hx, yi = 0. (3) Proof. Assume that (2) holds. Then, for any pair of orthogonal vectors x, y ? H, we have p  ?(x + y) = h (kx + yk) = h kxk2 + kyk2 ? max{h (kxk) , h (kyk)} = max{?(x), ?(y)}. Conversely, assume that condition (3) holds. Since dim H ? 2, by fixing a generic vector x ? X \ {0} and a number ? ? [0, 1], there exists a vector y such that kyk = 1 and ? = 1 ? cos2 ?, where cos ? = hx, yi . kxkkyk In view of (3), we have ?(x) = ?(x ? hx, yiy + hx, yiy) ? ?(x ? hx, yiy) = ? x ? cos2 ?x + cos2 ?x ? hx, yiy  ? ? (?x) . Since the last inequality trivially holds also when x = 0, we conclude that ?(x) ? ?(?x), ?x ? H, ?? ? [0, 1], (4) so that ? is nondecreasing along all the rays passing through the origin. In particular, the minimum of ? is attained at x = 0. Now, for any c ? ?(0), consider the sublevel sets Sc = {x ? H : ?(x) ? c} . From (4), it follows that Sc is not empty and star-shaped with respect to the origin. In addition, since ? is lower semicontinuous, Sc is also closed. We now show that Sc is either a closed ball centered at the origin, or the whole space. To this end, we show that, for any x ? Sc , the whole ball B = {y ? H : kyk ? kxk}, is contained in Sc . First, take any y ? int(B) \ span{x}, where int denotes the interior. Then, y has norm strictly less than kxk, that is 0 < kyk < kxk, and is not aligned with x, i.e. y 6= ?x, ?? ? R. 4 Let ? ? R denote the angle between x and y. Now, construct a sequence of points xk as follows:  x0 = y, xk+1 = xk + ak uk , where   ? ak = kxk k tan , n?N n and uk is the unique unitary vector that is orthogonal to xk , belongs to the two-dimensional subspace span{x, y}, and is such that huk , xi > 0, that is uk ? span{x, y}, kuk k = 1, huk , xk i = 0, huk , xi > 0. See Figure 1 for a geometrical illustration of the sequence xk . By orthogonality, we have      k+1 ? ? kxk+1 k2 = kxk k2 + a2k = kxk k2 1 + tan2 = kyk2 1 + tan2 . n n (5) In addition, the angle between xk+1 and xk is given by   ? ak = , ?k = arctan kxk k n so that the total angle between y and xn is given by n?1 X ?k = ?. k=0 Since all the points xk belong to the subspace spanned by x and y, and the angle between x and xn is zero, we have that xn is positively aligned with x, that is xn = ?x, ? ? 0. Now, we show that n can be chosen in such a way that ? ? 1. Indeed, from (5) we have  2  2   n kxn k kyk ? 2 2 ? = = 1 + tan , kxk kxk n and it can be verified that   n ? 2 lim 1 + tan = 1, n?+? n therefore ? ? 1 for a sufficiently large n. Now, write the difference vector in the form ?x ? y = n?1 X (xk+1 ? xk ), k=0 and observe that hxk+1 ? xk , xk i = 0. By using (4) and proceeding by induction, we have c ? ?(?x) = ? (xn ? xn?1 + xn?1 ) ? ?(xn?1 ) ? ? ? ? ? ?(x0 ) = ?(y), so that y ? Sc . Since Sc is closed and the closure of int(B) \ span{x} is the whole ball B, every point y ? B is also included in Sc . This proves that Sc is either a closed ball centered at the origin, or the whole space H. Finally, for any pair of points such that kxk = kyk, we have x ? S?(y) , and y ? S?(x) , so that ?(x) = ?(y). 5 y x Figure 1: The sequence xk constructed in the proof of Theorem 1 is associated with a geometrical construction known as spiral of Theodorus. Starting from any y in the interior of the ball (excluding points aligned with x), a point of the type ?x (with 0 ? ? ? 1) can be reached by using a finite number of right triangles. 3 Representer theorem: a necessary and sufficient condition In this section, we prove that condition (2) is necessary and sufficient for suitable families of regularization functionals of the type (1) to admit a linear representer theorem. Theorem 2. Let H denote a Hilbert space of dimension at least 2. Let F denote a family of functionals J : H ? R ? {+?} of the form (1) that admit minimizers, and assume that F contains a set of functionals of the form Jp? (w) = ?f (hw, pi) + ? (w) , ?p ? H, ?? ? R+ , (6) where f (z) is uniquely minimized at z = 1. Then, for any lower semicontinuous ?, the family F admits a linear representer theorem if and only if (2) holds. Proof. The first part of the theorem (sufficiency) follows from an orthogonality argument. Take any functional J ? F. Let R = span{w1 , . . . , w` } and let R? denote its orthogonal complement. Any minimizer w? of J can be uniquely decomposed as w? = u + v, u ? R, v ? R? . If (2) holds, then we have J(w? ) ? J(u) = h(kw? k) ? h(kuk) ? 0, so that u ? R is also a minimizer. Now, let?s prove the second part of the theorem (necessity). First of all, observe that the functional J0? (w) = ?f (0) + ?(w), obtained by setting p = 0 in (6), belongs to F. By hypothesis, J0? admits minimizers. In addition, by the representer theorem, the only admissible minimizer of J0 is the origin, that is ?(y) ? ?(0), ?y ? H. (7) Now take any x ? H \ {0} and let p= x . kxk2 By the representer theorem, the functional Jp? of the form (6) admits a minimizer of the type w = ?(?)x. Now, take any y ? H such that hx, yi = 0. By using the fact that f (z) is minimized at z = 1, and the linear representer theorem, we have ?f (1) + ? (?(?)x) ? ?f (?(?)) + ? (?(?)x) = Jp? (?(?)x) ? Jp? (x + y) = ?f (1) + ? (x + y) . By combining this last inequality with (7), we conclude that ? (x + y) ? ? (?(?)x) , ?x, y ? H : hx, yi = 0, ?? ? R+ . (8) Now, there are two cases: 6 ? ? (x + y) = +? ? ? (x + y) = C < +?. In the first case, we trivially have ? (x + y) ? ?(x). In the second case, using (7) and (8), we obtain 0 ? ? (f (?(?)) ? f (1)) ? ? (x + y) ? ? (?(?)x) ? C ? ?(0) < +?, ?? ? R+ . (9) Let ?k denote a sequence such that limk?+? ?k = +?, and consider the sequence ak = ?k (f (?(?k )) ? f (1)) . From (9), it follows that ak is bounded. Since z = 1 is the only minimizer of f (z), the sequence ak can remain bounded only if lim ?(?k ) = 1. k?+? By taking the limit inferior in (8) for ? ? +?, and using the fact that ? is lower semicontinuous, we obtain condition (3). It follows that ? satisfies the hypotheses of Theorem 1, therefore (2) holds. The second part of Theorem 2 states that any lower semicontinuous regularization term ? has to be of the form (2) in order for the family F to admit a linear representer theorem. Observe that ? is not required to be differentiable or even continuous. Moreover, it needs not to have bounded lower level sets. For the necessary condition to hold, the family F has to be broad enough to contain at least a set of regularization functionals of the form (6). The following examples show how to apply the necessary condition of Theorem 2 to classes of regularization problems with standard loss functions. ? Let L : R2 ? R ? {+?} denote any loss function of the type e ? z), L(y, z) = L(y e is uniquely minimized at t = 0. Then, for any lower semicontinuous regulasuch that L(t) ration term ?, the family of regularization functionals of the form J(w) = ? ` X L (yi , hw, wi i) + ?(w), i=1 admits a linear representer theorem if and only if (2) holds. To see that the hypotheses of Theorem 2 are satisfied, it is sufficient to consider the subset of functionals with ` = 1, y1 = 1, and w1 = p ? H. These functionals can be written in the form (6) with f (z) = L(1, z). ? The class of regularization problems with the hinge (SVM) loss of the form J(w) = ? ` X max{0, 1 ? yi hw, wi i} + ?(w), i=1 with ? lower semicontinuous, admits a linear representer theorem if and only if ? satisfy (2). For instance, by choosing ` = 2, and (y1 , w1 ) = (1, p), (y2 , w2 ) = (?1, p/2), we obtain regularization functionals of the form (6) with f (z) = max{0, 1 ? z} + max{0, 1 + z/2}, and it is easy to verify that f is uniquely minimized at z = 1. 7 4 Conclusions Sufficiently broad families of regularization functionals defined over a Hilbert space with lower semicontinuous regularization term admit a linear representer theorem if and only if the regularization term is a radial nondecreasing function. More precisely, the main result of this paper (Theorem 2) implies that, for any sufficiently large family of regularization functionals, nondecreasing functions of the norm are the only lower semicontinuous (extended-real valued) regularization terms that guarantee existence of a representer theorem for any choice of the data functionals Li . As a concluding remark, it is important to observe that other types of regularization terms are possible if the representer theorem is only required to hold for a restricted subset of the data functionals. Exploring necessary conditions for the existence of representer theorems under different types of restrictions on the data functionals is an interesting future research direction. 5 Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Andreas Argyriou for useful discussions. References [1] A. N. Tikhonov and V. Y. Arsenin. Solutions of Ill Posed Problems. W. H. Winston, Washington, D. C., 1977. [2] G. Wahba. Spline Models for Observational Data. SIAM, Philadelphia, USA, 1990. [3] F. Cucker and S. Smale. On the mathematical foundations of learning. Bulletin of the American mathematical society, 39:1?49, 2001. [4] B. Sch?olkopf, A. J. Smola, and K-R M?uller. Nonlinear component analysis as a kernel eigenvalue problem. Neural Computation, 10(5):1299?1319, 1998. [5] F. Riesz. Sur une esp`ece de g?eom?etrie analytique des syst`emes de fonctions sommables. Comptes rendus de l?Acad?emie des sciences Paris, 144:1409?1411, 1907. [6] M. Fr?echet. Sur les ensembles de fonctions et les op?erations lin?eaires. Comptes rendus de l?Acad?emie des sciences Paris, 144:1414?1416, 1907. [7] V. Vapnik. Statistical Learning Theory. Wiley, New York, NY, USA, 1998. [8] B. Sch?olkopf and A. J. Smola. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning). MIT Press, 2001. [9] J. Shawe-Taylor and N. Cristianini. Kernel Methods for Pattern Analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2004. [10] N. Aronszajn. Theory of reproducing kernels. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 68:337?404, 1950. [11] B. Sch?olkopf, R. Herbrich, and A. J. Smola. A generalized representer theorem. In In Proceedings of the Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory, pages 416?426, 2001. [12] G. Kimeldorf and G. Wahba. Some results on Tchebycheffian spline functions. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 33(1):82?95, 1971. [13] D. Cox and F. O? Sullivan. Asymptotic analysis of penalized likelihood and related estimators. The Annals of Statistics, 18:1676?1695, 1990. [14] T. Poggio and F. Girosi. Networks for approximation and learning. In Proceedings of the IEEE, volume 78, pages 1481?1497, 1990. [15] A. Argyriou, C. A. Micchelli, and M. Pontil. When is there a representer theorem? Vector versus matrix regularizers. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:2507?2529, 2009. 8
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Localizing 3D cuboids in single-view images Jianxiong Xiao Bryan C. Russell? Massachusetts Institute of Technology ? Antonio Torralba University of Washington Abstract In this paper we seek to detect rectangular cuboids and localize their corners in uncalibrated single-view images depicting everyday scenes. In contrast to recent approaches that rely on detecting vanishing points of the scene and grouping line segments to form cuboids, we build a discriminative parts-based detector that models the appearance of the cuboid corners and internal edges while enforcing consistency to a 3D cuboid model. Our model copes with different 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios and is able to detect cuboids across many different object categories. We introduce a database of images with cuboid annotations that spans a variety of indoor and outdoor scenes and show qualitative and quantitative results on our collected database. Our model out-performs baseline detectors that use 2D constraints alone on the task of localizing cuboid corners. 1 Introduction Extracting a 3D representation from a single-view image depicting a 3D object has been a longstanding goal of computer vision [20]. Traditional approaches have sought to recover 3D properties, such as creases, folds, and occlusions of surfaces, from a line representation extracted from the image [18]. Among these are works that have characterized and detected geometric primitives, such as quadrics (or ?geons?) and surfaces of revolution, which have been thought to form the components for many different object types [1]. While these approaches have achieved notable early successes, they could not be scaled-up due to their dependence on reliable contour extraction from natural images. In this work we focus on the task of detecting rectangular cuboids, which are a basic geometric primitive type and occur often in 3D scenes (e.g. indoor and outdoor man-made scenes [22, 23, 24]). Moreover, we wish to recover the shape parameters of the detected cuboids. The detection and recovery of shape parameters yield at least a partial geometric description of the depicted scene, which allows a system to reason about the affordances of a scene in an object-agnostic fashion [9, 15]. This is especially important when the category of the object is ambiguous or unknown. There have been several recent efforts that revisit this problem [9, 11, 12, 17, 19, 21, 26, 28, 29]. Although there are many technical differences amongst these works, the main pipeline of these approaches is similar. Most of them estimate the camera parameters using three orthogonal vanishing points with a Manhattan world assumption of a man-made scene. They detect line segments via Canny edges and recover surface orientations [13] to form 3D cuboid hypotheses using bottomup grouping of line and region segments. Then, they score these hypotheses based on the image evidence for lines and surface orientations [13]. In this paper we look to take a different approach for this problem. As shown in Figure 1, we aim to build a 3D cuboid detector to detect individual boxy volumetric structures. We build a discriminative parts-based detector that models the appearance of the corners and internal edges of cuboids while enforcing spatial consistency of the corners and edges to a 3D cuboid model. Our model is trained in a similar fashion to recent work that detects articulated human body joints [27]. 1 Input Image 3D Cuboid Detector Output Detection Result Synthesized New Views detect Figure 1: Problem summary. Given a single-view input image, our goal is to detect the 2D corner locations of the cuboids depicted in the image. With the output part locations we can subsequently recover information about the camera and 3D shape via camera resectioning. Our cuboid detector is trained across different 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios. This is in contrast to view-based approaches for object detection that train separate models for different viewpoints, e.g. [7]. Moreover, instead of relying on edge detection and grouping to form an initial hypothesis of a cuboid [9, 17, 26, 29], we use a 2D sliding window approach to exhaustively evaluate all possible detection windows. Also, our model does not rely on any preprocessing step, such as computing surface orientations [13]. Instead, we learn the parameters for our model using a structural SVM framework. This allows the detector to adapt to the training data to identify the relative importance of corners, edges and 3D shape constraints by learning the weights for these terms. We introduce an annotated database of images with geometric primitives labeled and validate our model by showing qualitative and quantitative results on our collected database. We also compare to baseline detectors that use 2D constraints alone on the tasks of geometric primitive detection and part localization. We show improved performance on the part localization task. 2 Model for 3D cuboid localization We represent the appearance of cuboids by a set of parts located at the corners of the cuboid and a set of internal edges. We enforce spatial consistency among the corners and edges by explicitly reasoning about its 3D shape. Let I be the image and pi = (xi , yi ) be the 2D image location of the ith corner on the cuboid. We define an undirected loopy graph G = (V, E) over the corners of the cuboid, with vertices V and edges E connecting the corners of the cuboid. We illustrate our loopy graph layout in Figure 2(a). We define a scoring function associated with the corner locations in the image:   D S(I, p) = wiH ? HOG(I, pi ) + wij ? Displacement2D (pi , pj ) i?V +  ij?E ij?E E wij ? Edge(I, pi , pj ) + wS ? Shape3D (p) (1) where HOG(I, pi ) is a HOG descriptor [4] computed at image location pi and Displacement2D (pi , pj ) = ?[(xi ? xj )2 , xi ? xj , (yi ? yj )2 , yi ? yj ] is a 2D corner displacement term that is used in other pictorial parts-based models [7, 27]. By reasoning about the 3D shape, our model handles different 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios, as illustrated in Figure 2. Notice that our model is linear in the weights w. Moreover, the model is flexible as it adapts to the training data by automatically learning weights that measure the relative importance of the appearance and spatial terms. We define the Edge and Shape3D terms as follows. Edge(I, pi , pj ): The internal edge information on cuboids is informative and provides a salient feature for the locations of the corners. For this, we include a term that models the appearance of the internal edges, which is illustrated in Figure 3. For adjacent corners on the cuboid, we identify the edge between the two corners and calculate the image evidence to support the existence of such an edge. Given the corner locations pi and pj , we use Chamfer matching to align the straight line between the two corners to edges extracted from the image. We find image edges using Canny edge detection [3] and efficiently compute the distance of each pixel along the line segment to the nearest edge via the truncated distance transform. We use Bresenham?s line algorithm [2] to efficiently find the 2D image locations on the line between the two points. The final edge term is the negative mean value of the Chamfer matching score for all pixels on the line. As there are usually 9 visible edges for a cuboid, we have 9 dimensions for the edge term. 2 (a) Our Full Model. (b) 2D Tree Model. (c) Example Part Detections. Figure 2: Model visualization. Corresponding model parts are colored consistently in the figure. In (a) and (b) the displayed corner locations are the average 2D locations across all viewpoints and aspect ratios in our database. In (a) the edge thickness corresponds to the learned weight for the edge term. We can see that the bottom edge is significantly thicker, which indicates that it is informative for detection, possibly due to shadows and contact with a supporting plane. Shape3D (p): The 3D shape of a cuboid constrains the layout of the parts and edges in the image. We propose to define a shape term that measures how well the configuration of corner locations respect the 3D shape. In other words, given the 2D locations p of the corners, we define a term that tells us how likely this configuration of corner locations p can be interpreted as the reprojection of a valid cuboid in 3D. When combined with the weights wS , we get an overall evaluation of the goodness of the 2D locations with respect to the 3D shape. Let X (written in homogeneous coordinates) be the 3D points on the unit cube centered at the world origin. Then, X transforms as x = PLX, where L is a matrix that transforms the shape of the unit cube and P is a 3 ? 4 camera matrix. For each corner, we use the other six 2D corner locations to estimate the product PL using camera resectioning [10]. The estimated matrix is used to predict the corner location. We use the negative L2 distance to the predicted corner location as a feature for the corner in our model. As we model 7 corners on the cuboid, there are 7 dimensions in the feature vector. When combined with the learned weights wS through dot-product, this represents a weighted reprojection error score. 2.1 Inference Our goal is to find the 2D corner locations p over the HOG grid of I that maximizes the score given in Equation (1). Note that exact inference is hard due to the global shape term. Therefore, we propose a spanning tree approximation to the graph to obtain multiple initial solutions for possible corner locations. Then we adjust the corner locations using randomized simple hill climbing. For the initialization, it is important for the computation to be efficient since we need to evaluate all possible detection windows in the image. Therefore, for simplicity and speed, we use a spanning tree T to approximate the full graph G, as shown in Figure 2(b). In addition to the HOG feature as a unary term, we use a popular pairwise spring term along the edges of the tree to establish weak spatial constraints on the corners. We use the following scoring function for the initialization:   D ST (I, p) = wiH ? HOG(I, pi ) + wij ? Displacement2D (pi , pj ) (2) i?V ij?T Note that the model used for obtaining initial solutions is similar to [7, 27], which is only able to handle a fixed viewpoint and 2D aspect ratio. Nonetheless, we use it since it meets our speed requirement via dynamic programming and the distance transform [8]. With the tree approximation, we pick the top 1000 possible configurations of corner locations from each image and optimize our scoring function by adjusting the corner locations using randomized simple hill climbing. Given the initial corner locations for a single configuration, we iteratively choose a random corner i with the goal of finding a new pixel location p?i that increases the scoring function given in Equation (1) while holding the other corner locations fixed. We compute the scores at neighboring pixel locations to the current setting pi . We also consider the pixel location that the 3D rigid model predicts when estimated from the other corner locations. We randomly choose one of the locations and update pi if it yields a higher score. Otherwise, we choose another random corner and location. The algorithm terminates when no corner can reach a location that improves the score, which indicates that we have reached a local maxima. During detection, since the edge and 3D shape terms are non-positive and the weights are constrained to be positive, this allows us to upper-bound the scoring function and quickly reject candidate loca3 ?10 ?20 ?30 ?40 ?50 ?60 ?70 ?80 Dot-product is the Edge Term ?90 ?100 Image Distance Transformed Edge Map Pixels Covered by Line Segment Figure 3: Illustration of the edge term in our model. Given line endpoints, we compute a Chamfer matching score for pixels that lie on the line using the response from a Canny edge detector. tions without evaluating the entire function. Also, since only one corner can change locations at each iteration, we can reuse the computed scoring function from previous iterations during hill climbing. Finally, we perform non-maximal suppression among the parts and then perform non-maximal suppression over the entire object to get the final detection result. 2.2 Learning For learning, we first note that our scoring function in Equation (1) is linear in the weights w. This allows us to use existing structured prediction procedures for learning. To learn the weights, we adapt the structural SVM framework of [16]. Given positive training images with the 2D corner locations labeled {In , pn } and negative training images {In }, we wish to learn weights and bias term ? = (wH , wD , wE , wS , b) that minimizes the following structured prediction objective function: X 1 min ???+C ?n (3) ?,??0 2 n ?n ? pos ? ? ? (In , pn ) ? 1 ? ?n ?n ? neg, ?p ? P ? ? ? (In , p) ? ?1 + ?n where all appearance and spatial feature vectors are concatenated into the vector ?(In , p) and P is the set of all possible part locations. During training we constrain the weights wD , wE , wS ? 0.0001. We tried mining negatives from the wrong corner locations in the positive examples but found that it did not improve the performance. We also tried latent positive mining and empirically observed that it slightly helps. Since the latent positive mining helped, we also tried an offset compensation as post-processing to obtain the offset of corner locations introduced during latent positive mining. For this, we ran the trained detector on the training set to obtain the offsets and used the mean to compensate for the location changes. However, we observed empirically that it did not help performance. 2.3 Discussion Sliding window object detectors typically use a root filter that covers the entire object [4] or a combination of root filter and part filters [7]. The use of a root filter is sufficient to capture the appearance for many object categories since they have canonical 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios. However, cuboids in general span a large number of object categories and do not have a consistent 3D viewpoint or aspect ratio. The diversity of 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios causes dramatic changes in the root filter response. However, we have observed that the responses for the part filters are less affected. Moreover, we argue that a purely view-based approach that trains separate models for the different viewpoints and aspect ratios may not capture well this diversity. For example, such a strategy would require dividing the training data to train each model. In contrast, we train our model for all 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios. We illustrate this in Figure 2, where detected parts are colored consistently in the figure. As our model handles different viewpoints and aspect ratios, we are able to make use of the entire database during training. Due to the diversity of cuboid appearance, our model is designed to capture the most salient features, namely the corners and edges. While the corners and edges may be occluded (e.g. by self-occlusion, 4 90 Elevation 45 0 ?45 0 (a) 15 Azimuth 30 45 1? (b) 9? 18? 26? 37? 43? (c) Figure 4: Illustration of the labeling tool and 3D viewpoint statistics. (a) A cuboid being labeled through the tool. A projection of the cuboid model is overlaid on the image and the user must select and drag anchor points to their corresponding location in the image. (b) Scatter plot of 3D azimuth and elevation angles for annotated cuboids with zenith angle close zero. We perform an image left/right swap to limit the rotation range. (c) Crops of cuboids at different azimuth angles for a fixed elevation, with the shown examples marked as red points in the scatter plot of (b). other objects in front, or cropping), for now we do not handle these cases explicitly in our model. Furthermore, we do not make use of other appearance cues, such as the appearance within the cuboid faces, since they have a larger variation across the object categories (e.g. dice and fire alarm trigger) and may not generalize as well. We also take into account the tractability of our model as adding additional appearance cues will increase the complexity of our model and the detector needs to be evaluated over a large number of possible sliding windows in an image. Compared with recent approaches that detect cuboids by reasoning about the shape of the entire scene [9, 11, 12, 17, 19, 29], one of the key differences is that we detect cuboids directly without consideration of the global scene geometry. These prior approaches rely heavily on the assumption that the camera is located inside a cuboid-like room and held at human height, with the parameters of the room cuboid inferred through vanishing points based on a Manhattan world assumption. Therefore, they cannot handle outdoor scenes or close-up snapshots of an object (e.g. the boxes on a shelf in row 1, column 3 of Figure 6). As our detector is agnostic to the scene geometry, we are able to detect cuboids even when these assumptions are violated. While previous approaches reason over rigid cuboids, our model is flexible in that it can adapt to deformations of the 3D shape. We observe that not all cuboid-like objects are perfect cuboids in practice. Deformations of the shape may arise due to the design of the object (e.g. the printer in Figure 1), natural deformation or degradation of the object (e.g. a cardboard box), or a global transformation of the image (e.g. camera radial distortion). We argue that modeling the deformations is important in practice since a violation of the rigid constraints may make a 3D reconstructionbased approach numerically unstable. In our approach, we model the 3D deformation and allow the structural SVM to learn based on the training data how to weight the importance of the 3D shape term. Moreover, a rigid shape requires a perfect 3D reconstruction and it is usually done with nonlinear optimization [17], which is expensive to compute and becomes impractical in an exhaustive sliding-window search in order to maintain a high recall rate. With our approach, if a rigid cuboid is needed, we can recover the 3D shape parameters via camera resectioning, as shown in Figure 9. 3 Database of 3D cuboids To develop and evaluate any models for 3D cuboid detection in real-world environments, it is necessary to have a large database of images depicting everyday scenes with 3D cuboids labeled. In this work, we seek to build a database by manually labeling point correspondences between images and 3D cuboids. We have built a labeling tool that allows a user to select and drag key points on a projected 3D cuboid model to its corresponding location in the image. This is similar to existing tools, such as Google building maker [14], which has been used to build 3D models of buildings for maps. Figure 4(a) shows a screenshot of our tool. For the database, we have harvested images from four sources: (i) a subset of the SUN database [25], which contains images depicting a large variety of different scene categories, (ii) ImageNet synsets [5] with objects having one or more 3D cuboids depicted, (iii) images returned from an Internet search using keywords for objects that are wholly or partially described by 3D cuboids, and (iv) a set of images that we manually collected from our personal photographs. Given the corner correspondences, the parameters for the 3D cuboids and camera are estimated. The cuboid and camera parameters are estimated up to a similarity transformation via camera resectioning using Levenberg-Marquardt optimization [10]. 5 Figure 5: Single top 3D cuboid detection in each image. Yellow: ground truth, green: correct detection, red: false alarm. Bottom row - false positives. The false positives tend to occur when a part fires on a ?cuboid-like? corner region (e.g. row 3, column 5) or finds a smaller cuboid (e.g. the Rubik?s cube depicted in row 3, column 1). Figure 6: All 3D cuboid detections above a fixed threshold in each image. Notice that our model is able to detect the presence of multiple cuboids in an image (e.g. row 1, columns 2-5) and handles partial occlusions (e.g. row 1, column 4), small objects, and a range of 3D viewpoints, aspect ratios, and object classes. Moreover, the depicted scenes have varying amount of clutter. Yellow - ground truth. Green - correct prediction. Red - false positive. Line thickness corresponds to detector confidence. For our database, we have 785 images with 1269 cuboids annotated. We have also collected a negative set containing 2746 images that do contain any cuboid like objects. We perform an image left/right swap to limit the rotation range. As a result, the min/max azimuth, elevation, and zenith angles are 0/45, -90/90, -180/180 degrees respectively. In Figure 4(b) we show a scatter plot of the azimuth and elevation angles for all of the labeled cuboids with zenith angle close to zero. Notice that the cuboids cover a large range of azimuth angles for elevation angles between 0 (frontal view) and 45 degrees. We also show a number of cropped examples for a fixed elevation angle in Figure 4(c), with their corresponding azimuth angles indicated by the red points in the scatter plot. Figure 8(c) shows the distribution of objects from the SUN database [25] that overlap with our cuboids (there are 326 objects total from 114 unique classes). Compared with [12], our database covers a larger set of object and scene categories, with images focusing on both objects and scenes (all images in [12] are indoor scene images). Moreover, we annotate objects closely resembling a 3D cuboid (in [12] there are many non-cuboids that are annotated with a bounding cuboid) and overall our cuboids are more accurately labeled. 4 Evaluation In this section we show qualitative results of our model on the 3D cuboids database and report quantitative results on two tasks: (i) 3D cuboid detection and (ii) corner localization accuracy. For training and testing, we randomly split equally the positive and negative images. As discussed in Section 3, there is rotational symmetry in the 3D cuboids. During training, we allow the image 6 (a) (b) (c) Figure 7: Corner localization comparison for detected geometric primitives. (a) Input image and ground truth annotation. (b) 2D tree-based initialization. (c) Our full model. Notice that our model is able to better localize cuboid corners over the baseline 2D tree-based model, which corresponds to 2D parts-based models used in object detection and articulated pose estimation [7, 27]. The last column shows a failure case where a part fires on a ?cuboid-like? corner region in the image. to mirror left-right and orient the 3D cuboid to minimize the variation in rotational angle. During testing, we run the detector on left-right mirrors of the image and select the output at each location with the highest detector response. For the parts we extract HOG features [4] in a window centered at each corner with scale of 10% of the object bounding box size. Figure 5 shows the single top cuboid detection in each image and Figure 6 shows all of the most confident detections in the image. Notice that our model is able to handle partial occlusions (e.g. row 1, column 4 of Figure 6), small objects, and a range of 3D viewpoints, aspect ratios, and object classes. Moreover, the depicted scenes have varying amount of clutter. We note that our model fails when a corner fires on a ?cuboid-like? corner region (e.g. row 3, column 5 of Figure 5). We compare the various components of our model against two baseline approaches. The first baseline is a root HOG template [4] trained over the appearance within a bounding box covering the entire object. A single model using the root HOG template is trained for all viewpoints and aspect ratios. During detection, output corner locations corresponding to the average training corner locations relative to the bounding boxes are returned. The second baseline is the 2D tree-based approximation of Equation (2), which corresponds to existing 2D parts models used in object detection and articulated pose estimation [7, 27]. Figure 7 shows a qualitative comparison of our model against the 2D tree-based model. Notice that our model localizes well and often provides a tighter fit to the image data than the baseline model. We evaluate geometric primitive detection accuracy using the bounding box overlap criteria in the Pascal VOC [6]. We report precision recall in Figure 8(a). We have observed that all of the cornerbased models achieve almost identical detection accuracy across all recall levels, and out-perform the root HOG template detector [4]. This is expected as we initialize our full model with the output of the 2D tree-based model and it generally does not drift too far from this initialization. This in effect does not allow us to detect additional cuboids but allows for better part localization. In addition to detection accuracy, we also measure corner localization accuracy for correctly detected examples for a given model. A corner is deemed correct if its predicted image location is within t pixels of the ground truth corner location. We set t to be 15% of the square root of the area of the ground truth bounding box for the object. The reported trends in the corner localization performance hold for nearby values of t. In Figure 8 we plot corner localization accuracy as a function of recall and compare our model against the two baselines. Moreover, we report performance when either the edge term or the 3D shape term is omitted from our model. Notice that our full model out-performs the other baselines. Also, the additional edge and 3D shape terms provide a gain in performance over using the appearance and 2D spatial terms alone. The edge term provides a slightly larger gain in performance over the 3D shape term, but when integrated together consistently provides the best performance on our database. 7 1 1 Root Filter [0.16] 2D Tree Approximation [0.23] Full Model?Edge [0.26] Full Model?Shape [0.24] Full Model [0.24] 0.8 precision recall 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 building (16/49) bed (15/22) 0.7 others 0.6 0.5 0 0.2 0.4 recall 0.6 0.8 (a) Cuboid detection 1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 night table (15/29) 97 categories (168/883) 0.1 0.1 0 cabinet (28/87) Root Filter [0.25] 2D Tree Approximation [0.30] Full Model?Edge [0.37] Full Model?Shape [0.37] Full Model [0.38] 0.9 reprojection accuracy (criteria=0.150) 0.9 0 0.2 0.4 recall 0.6 0.8 (b) Corner localization 1 chest of drawers (10/10) box (9/18) desk (8/22) table (8/26) CPU (7/8) stand (7/11) brick (5/5) cabinets (5/22) kitchen island (5/6) night table occluded (5/12) refrigerator (5/8) stove (5/13) screen (5/16) (c) Object distribution Figure 8: Cuboid detection (precision vs. recall) and corner localization accuracy (accuracy vs. recall). The area under the curve is reported in the plot legends. Notice that all of the corner-based models achieve almost identical detection accuracy across all recall levels and out-perform the root HOG template detector [4]. For the task of corner localization, our full model out-performs the two baseline detectors or when either the Edge or Shape3D terms are omitted from our model. (c) Distribution of objects from the SUN database [25] that overlap with our cuboids. There are 326 objects total from 114 unique classes. The first number within the parentheses indicates the number of instances in each object category that overlaps with a labeled cuboid, while the second number is the total number of labeled instances for the object category within our dataset. Figure 9: Detected cuboids and subsequent synthesized new views via camera resectioning. 5 Conclusion We have introduced a novel model that detects 3D cuboids and localizes their corners in single-view images. Our 3D cuboid detector makes use of both corner and edge information. Moreover, we have constructed a dataset with ground truth cuboid annotations. Our detector handles different 3D viewpoints and aspect ratios and, in contrast to recent approaches for 3D cuboid detection, does not make any assumptions about the scene geometry and allows for deformation of the 3D cuboid shape. As HOG is not invariant to viewpoint, we believe that part mixtures would allow the model to be invariant to viewpoint. We believe our approach extends to other shapes, such as cylinders and pyramids. Our work raises a number of (long-standing) issues that would be interesting to address. For instance, which objects can be described by one or more geometric primitives and how to best represent the compositionality of objects in general? By detecting geometric primitives, what applications and systems can be developed to exploit this? Our dataset and source code is publicly available at the project webpage: http://SUNprimitive.csail.mit.edu. Acknowledgments: Jianxiong Xiao is supported by Google U.S./Canada Ph.D. Fellowship in Computer Vision. Bryan Russell was funded by the Intel Science and Technology Center for Pervasive Computing (ISTC-PC). This work is funded by ONR MURI N000141010933 and NSF Career Award No. 0747120 to Antonio Torralba. 8 References [1] I. Biederman. Recognition by components: a theory of human image interpretation. Pyschological review, 94:115?147, 1987. [2] J. E. Bresenham. Algorithm for computer control of a digital plotter. IBM Systems Journal, 4(1):25?30, 1965. [3] J. F. Canny. A computational approach to edge detection. IEEE PAMI, 8(6):679?698, 1986. [4] N. Dalal and B. Triggs. Histograms of Oriented Gradients for Human Detection. In CVPR, 2005. [5] J. Deng, W. Dong, R. Socher, L.-J. Li, K. Li, and L. Fei-Fei. ImageNet: A large-scale hierarchical image database. In CVPR, 2009. [6] M. Everingham, L. Van Gool, C. K. I. Williams, J. Winn, and A. Zisserman. The Pascal visual object classes (VOC) challenge. IJCV, 88(2):303?338, 2010. [7] P. Felzenszwalb, R. Girshick, D. McAllester, and D. Ramanan. Object detection with discriminatively trained part based models. IEEE PAMI, 32(9), 2010. [8] P. Felzenszwalb and D. Huttenlocher. Pictorial structures for object recognition. IJCV, 61(1), 2005. [9] A. Gupta, S. Satkin, A. A. Efros, and M. Hebert. From 3d scene geometry to human workspace. In CVPR, 2011. [10] R. I. Hartley and A. Zisserman. Multiple View Geometry in Computer Vision. Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 0521540518, second edition, 2004. [11] V. Hedau, D. Hoiem, and D. Forsyth. Thinking inside the box: Using appearance models and context based on room geometry. In ECCV, 2010. [12] V. Hedau, D. Hoiem, and D. Forsyth. Recovering free space of indoor scenes from a single image. In CVPR, 2012. [13] D. Hoiem, A. Efros, and M. Hebert. Geometric context from a single image. In ICCV, 2005. [14] http://sketchup.google.com, 2012. [15] K. Ikeuchi and T. Suehiro. Toward an assembly plan from observation: Task recognition with polyhedral objects. In Robotics and Automation, 1994. [16] T. Joachims, T. Finley, and C.-N. J. Yu. Cutting-plane training of structural svms. Machine Learning, 77(1), 2009. [17] D. C. Lee, A. Gupta, M. Hebert, and T. Kanade. Estimating spatial layout of rooms using volumetric reasoning about objects and surfaces. In NIPS, 2010. [18] J. L. Mundy. Object recognition in the geometric era: A retrospective. In Toward Category-Level Object Recognition, volume 4170 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 3?29. Springer, 2006. [19] L. D. Pero, J. C. Bowdish, D. Fried, B. D. Kermgard, E. L. Hartley, and K. Barnard. Bayesian geometric modelling of indoor scenes. In CVPR, 2012. [20] L. Roberts. Machine perception of 3-d solids. In PhD. Thesis, 1965. [21] H. Wang, S. Gould, and D. Koller. Discriminative learning with latent variables for cluttered indoor scene understanding. In ECCV, 2010. [22] J. Xiao, T. Fang, P. Tan, P. Zhao, E. Ofek, and L. Quan. Image-based fac?ade modeling. In SIGGRAPH Asia, 2008. [23] J. Xiao, T. Fang, P. Zhao, M. Lhuillier, and L. Quan. Image-based street-side city modeling. In SIGGRAPH Asia, 2009. [24] J. Xiao and Y. Furukawa. Reconstructing the world?s museums. In ECCV, 2012. [25] J. Xiao, J. Hays, K. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. SUN database: Large-scale scene recognition from abbey to zoo. In CVPR, 2010. [26] J. Xiao, B. C. Russell, J. Hays, K. A. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. Basic level scene understanding: From labels to structure and beyond. In SIGGRAPH Asia, 2012. [27] Y. Yang and D. Ramanan. Articulated pose estimation using flexible mixtures of parts. In CVPR, 2011. [28] S. Yu, H. Zhang, and J. Malik. Inferring spatial layout from a single image via depth-ordered grouping. In IEEE Workshop on Perceptual Organization in Computer Vision, 2008. [29] Y. Zhao and S.-C. Zhu. Image parsing with stochastic scene grammar. In NIPS. 2011. 9
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Nonparametric Reduced Rank Regression Rina Foygel?,? , Michael Horrell? , Mathias Drton?,? , John Lafferty? ? Department of Statistics Stanford University ? Department of Statistics University of Chicago ? Department of Statistics University of Washington Abstract We propose an approach to multivariate nonparametric regression that generalizes reduced rank regression for linear models. An additive model is estimated for each dimension of a q-dimensional response, with a shared p-dimensional predictor variable. To control the complexity of the model, we employ a functional form of the Ky-Fan or nuclear norm, resulting in a set of function estimates that have low rank. Backfitting algorithms are derived and justified using a nonparametric form of the nuclear norm subdifferential. Oracle inequalities on excess risk are derived that exhibit the scaling behavior of the procedure in the high dimensional setting. The methods are illustrated on gene expression data. 1 Introduction In the multivariate regression problem the objective is to estimate the conditional mean E(Y ? X) = m(X) = (m1 (X), . . . , mq (X))? where Y is a q-dimensional response vector and X is a pdimensional covariate vector. This is also referred to as multi-task learning in the machine learning literature. We are given a sample of n iid pairs {(Xi , Yi )} from the joint distribution of X and Y . Under a linear model, the mean is estimated as m(X) = BX where B ? Rq?p is a q ? p matrix of regression coefficients. When the dimensions p and q are large relative to the sample size n, the coefficients of B cannot be reliably estimated, without further assumptions. In reduced rank regression the matrix B is estimated under a rank constraint r = rank(B) ? C, so that the rows or columns of B lie in an r-dimensional subspace of Rq or Rp . Intuitively, this implies that the model is based on a smaller number of features than the ambient dimensionality p would suggest, or that the tasks representing the components Y k of the response are closely related. In low dimensions, the constrained rank model can be computed as an orthogonal projection of the least squares solution; but in high dimensions this is not well defined. Recent research has studied the use of the nuclear norm as a convex surrogate for the rank constraint. The nuclear norm ?B?? , also known as the trace or Ky-Fan norm, is the sum of the singular vectors of B. A rank constraint can be thought of as imposing sparsity, but in an unknown basis; the nuclear norm plays the role of the 1 norm in sparse estimation. Its use for low rank estimation problems was proposed by Fazel in [2]. More recently, nuclear norm regularization in multivariate linear regression has been studied by Yuan et al. [10], and by Neghaban and Wainwright [4], who analyzed the scaling properties of the procedure in high dimensions. In this paper we study nonparametric parallels of reduced rank linear models. We focus our attention on additive models, so that the regression function m(X) = (m1 (X), . . . , mq (X))? has each component mk (X) = ?pj=1 mkj (Xj ) equal to a sum of p functions, one for each covariate. The objective is then to estimate the q ? p matrix of functions M (X) = [mkj (Xj )]. The first problem we address, in Section 2, is to determine a replacement for the regularization penalty ?B?? in the linear model. Because we must estimate a matrix of functions, the analogue of the nuclear norm is not immediately apparent. We propose two related regularization penalties for 1 nonparametric low rank regression, and show how they specialize to the linear case. We then study, in Section 4, the (infinite dimensional) subdifferential of these penalties. In the population setting, this leads to stationary conditions for the minimizer of the regularized mean squared error. This subdifferential calculus then justifies penalized backfitting algorithms for carrying out the optimization for a finite sample. Constrained rank additive models (CRAM) for multivariate regression are analogous to sparse additive models (S PAM) for the case where the response is 1-dimensional [6] (studied also in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space setting by [5]), but with the goal of recovering a low-rank matrix rather than an entry-wise sparse vector. The backfitting algorithms we derive in Section 5 are analogous to the iterative smoothing and soft thresholding backfitting algorithms for S PAM proposed in [6]. A uniform bound on the excess risk of the estimator relative to an oracle is given Section 6. This shows the statistical scaling behavior of the methods for prediction. The analysis requires a concentration result for nonparametric covariance matrices in the spectral norm. Experiments with gene data are given in Section 7, which are used to illustrate different facets of the proposed nonparametric reduced rank regression techniques. 2 Nonparametric Nuclear Norm Penalization We begin by presenting the penalty that we will use to induce nonparametric regression estimates to be low rank. To motivate our choice of penalty and provide some intuition, suppose that f 1 (x), . . . , f q (x) are q smooth one-dimensional functions with a common domain. What does it mean for this collection of functions to be low rank? Let x1 , x2 , . . . , xn be a collection of points in the common domain of the functions. We require that the n ? q matrix of function values F(x1?n ) = [f k (xi )] is low rank. This matrix is of rank at most r < q for every set {xi } of arbitrary size n if and only if the functions {f k } are r-linearly independent?each function can be written as a linear combination of r of the other functions. In the multivariate regression setting, but still assuming the domain is one-dimensional for simplicity (q > 1 and p = 1), we have a random sample X1 , . . . , Xn . Consider the n ? q sample matrix M = [mk (Xi )] associated with a vector M = (m1 , . . . , mq ) of q smooth (regression) functions, and suppose that n > q. We would like for this to be a low rank matrix. This suggests the penalty ? q q ?M?? = ?s=1 ?s (M) = ?s=1 ?s (M? M), where {?s (A)} denotes the eigenvalues of a symmetric matrix A and {?s (B)} denotes the singular values of a matrix B. Now, assuming the columns of M ? are centered, and E[mk (X)] = 0 for each k, we recognize n1 M? M as the sample covariance ?(M ) k l of the population covariance ?(M ) ?= Cov(M (X)) = [E(m (X)m (X))]. This motivates the following sample and population penalties, where A1/2 denotes the matrix square root: population penalty: ??(M )1/2 ?? = ? Cov(M (X))1/2 ?? 1 ? sample penalty: ??(M )1/2 ?? = ? ?M?? . n (2.1) (2.2) With Y denoting the n ? q matrix of response values for the sample (Xi , Yi ), this leads to the following population and empirical regularized risk functionals for low rank nonparametric regression: population penalized risk: empirical penalized risk: 1 E?Y ? M (X)?22 + ???(M )1/2 ?? 2 ? 1 ?Y ? M?2F + ? ?M?? . 2n n (2.3) (2.4) We recall that if A ? 0 has spectral decomposition A = U DU ? then A1/2 = U D1/2 U ? . 3 Constrained Rank Additive Models (CRAM) We now consider the case where X is p-dimensional. Throughout the paper we use superscripts to denote indices of the q-dimensional response, and subscripts to denote indices of the p-dimensional covariate. We consider the family of additive models, with regression functions of the form m(X) = (m1 (X), . . . , mq (X))? = ?pj=1 Mj (Xj ), where each term Mj (Xj ) = (m1j (Xj ), . . . , mqj (Xj ))? is a q-vector of functions evaluated at Xj . 2 In this setting we propose two different penalties. The first penalty, intuitively, encourages the vector (m1j (Xj ), . . . , mqj (Xj )) to be low rank, for each j. Assume that the functions mkj (Xj ) all have mean zero; this is required for identifiability in the additive model. As a shorthand, let ?j = ?(Mj ) = Cov(Mj (Xj )) denote the covariance matrix of the j-th component functions, with ? j . The population and sample versions of the first penalty are then given by sample version ? 1/2 1/2 ??1 ?? + ??2 ?? + ? + ??1/2 p ?? (3.1) p ? 1/2 ? + ? + ?? ? 1/2 ? = ?1 ? ?Mj ?? . ? 1/2 ? + ?? ?? p 1 2 ? ? ? n j=1 (3.2) The second penalty, intuitively, encourages the set of q vector-valued functions (mk1 , mk2 , . . . , mkp )? to be low rank. This penalty is given by 1/2 ?(?1 ??1/2 p )? (3.3) ? 1/2 ?? ? 1/2 )? = ?1 ?M1?p ?? ?(? p 1 ? n (3.4) ? ? where, for convenience of notation, M1?p = (M?1 ?M?p ) is an np ? q matrix. The corresponding population and empirical risk functionals, for the first penalty, are then p p 2 1 1/2 E?Y ? ? Mj (X)? + ? ? ??j ?? 2 2 j=1 j=1 (3.5) p 2 1 ? p ?Y ? ? Mj ? + ? ? ?Mj ?? F 2n n j=1 j=1 (3.6) and similarly for the second penalty. Now suppose that each Xj is normalized so that E(Xj2 ) = 1. In the linear case we have Mj (Xj ) = Xj Bj where Bj ? Rq . Let B = (B1 ?Bp ) ? Rq?p . Some straightforward calculation shows that 1/2 1/2 1/2 the penalties reduce to ?pj=1 ??j ?? = ?pj=1 ?Bj ?2 for the first penalty, and ??1 ??p ?? = ?B?? for the second. Thus, in the linear case the first penalty is encouraging B to be column-wise sparse, so that many of the Bj s are zero, meaning that Xj doesn?t appear in the fit. This is a version of the group lasso [11]. The second penalty reduces to the nuclear norm regularization ?B?? used for high-dimensional reduced-rank regression. 4 Subdifferentials for Functional Matrix Norms A key to deriving algorithms for functional low-rank regression is computation of the subdifferentials of the penalties. We are interested in (q ? p)-dimensional matrices of functions F = [fjk ]. For each column index j and row index k, fjk is a function of a random variable Xj , and we will take expectations with respect to Xj implicitly. We write Fj to mean the jth column of F , which is a q-vector of functions of Xj . We define the inner product between two matrices of functions as p q p ?F, G? ?= ? ? E(fjk gjk ) = ? E(Fj? Gj ) = tr (E(F G? )) , j=1 k=1 (4.1) j=1 ? ? and write ?F ?2 = ?F, F ?. Note that ?F ?2 = ? E(F F ? )? where E(F F ? ) = ?j E(Fj Fj? ) ? 0 F is a positive semidefinite q ? q matrix. We define two further norms on a matrix of functions F , namely, ? ? ? and ???F ???? ?= ? E(F F ? )?? , ???F ???sp ?= ?E(F F ? )?sp = ? E(F F ? )? sp where ?A?sp is the spectral norm (operator norm), the largest singular value of A, and it is convenient ? to write the matrix square root as A = A1/2 . Each of the norms depends on F only through ? E(F F ). In fact, these two norms are dual?for any F , ???F ???? = sup ?G, F ? , ???G???sp ?1 3 (4.2) ? ?1 where the supremum is attained by setting G = ( E(F F ? )) F , with A?1 denoting the matrix pseudo-inverse. Proposition 4.1. The subdifferential of ???F ???? is the set ? ?1 S(F ) ?= {( E(F F ? )) F + H ? ???H???sp ? 1, E(F H ? ) = 0q?q , E(F F ? )H = 0q?p a.e.} . (4.3) Proof. The fact that S(F ) contains the subdifferential ????F ???? can be proved by comparing our setting (matrices of functions) to the ordinary matrix case; see [9, 7]. Here, we show the reverse inclusion, S(F ) ? ????F ???? . Let D ? S(F ) and let G be any element of the function space. We need to show ???F + G???? ? ???F ???? + ?G, D? , (4.4) ?1 ? where D = ( E(F F ? )) F + H =? F? + H for some H satisfying the conditions in (4.3) above. Expanding the right-hand side of (4.4), we have ???F ???? + ?G, D? = ???F ???? + ?G, F? + H? = ?F + G, F? + H? ? ???F + G???? ???D???sp , where the second equality follows from ???F ???? = ?F, F??, and the fact that ?F, H? = tr(E(F H ? )) = 0. The inequality follows from the duality of the norms. Finally, we show that ???D???sp ? 1. We have E(DD? ) = E(F?F?? ) + E(F?H ? ) + E(H F?? ) + E(HH ? ) = E(F?F?? ) + E(HH ? ) , where we use the fact that E(F H ? ) = 0q?q , implying E(F?H ? ) = 0q?q . Next, let E(F F ? ) = V DV ? be a reduced singular value decomposition, where D is a positive diagonal matrix of size q? ? q. Then E(F?F?? ) = V V ? , and we have E(F F ? ) ? H = 0q?p a.e. ? V ? H = 0q? ?p a.e. ? E(F?F?? )H = 0q?p a.e. . This implies that E(F?F?? ) ? E(HH ? ) = 0q?q and so these two symmetric matrices have orthogonal row spans and orthogonal column spans. Therefore, ?E(DD? )?sp = ?E(F?F?? ) + E(HH ? )?sp = max {?E(F?F?? )?sp , ?E(HH ? )?sp } ? 1 , where the last bound comes from the fact that ???F????sp , ???H???sp ? 1. Therefore ???D???sp ? 1. This gives the subdifferential of penalty 2, defined in (3.3). We can view the first penalty update as just a special case of the second penalty update. For penalty 1 in (3.1), if we are updating Fj and fix all the other functions, we are now penalizing the norm ? ???Fj ???? = ? E(Fj Fj? )? , (4.5) ? which is clearly just a special case of penalty 2 with a single q-vector of functions instead of p different q-vectors of functions. So, we have ? ?1 ????Fj ???? = {( E(Fj Fj? )) Fj + Hj ? ???Hj ???sp ? 1, E(Fj Hj? ) = 0, E(Fj Fj? )Hj = 0 a.e.} . (4.6) 5 Stationary Conditions and Backfitting Algorithms Returning to the base case of p = 1 covariate, consider the population regularized risk optimization 1 (5.1) min{ E?Y ? M (X)?22 + ????M ???? }, M 2 where M is a vector of q univariate functions. The stationary condition for this optimization is E(Y ? X) = M (X) + ?V (X) a.e. for some V ? ????M ???? . Define P (X) ?= E(Y ? X). 4 (5.2) CRAM BACKFITTING A LGORITHM ? F IRST P ENALTY Input: Data (Xi , Yi ), regularization parameter ?. ?j = 0, for j = 1, . . . , p. Initialize M Iterate until convergence: For each j = 1, . . . , p: ?k (Xk ); (1) Compute the residual: Zj = Y ? ?k?j M (2) Estimate Pj = E[Zj ? Xj ] by smoothing: P?j = Sj Zj ; (3) Compute SVD: n1 P?j P?j? = U diag(? )U ? ?j = U diag([1 ? ?/?? ] )U ? P?j ; (4) Soft threshold: M + ?j ? M ?j ? mean(M ?j ). (5) Center: M ?j and estimator M ?(Xi ) = ?j M ?j (Xij ). Output: Component functions M Figure 1: The CRAM backfitting algorithm, using the first penalty, which penalizes each component. Proposition 5.1. Let E(P P ? ) = U diag(? )U ? be the singular value decomposition and define ? M = U diag([1 ? ?/ ? ]+ )U ? P (5.3) where [x]+ = max(x, 0). Then M satisfies stationary condition (5.2), and is a minimizer of (5.1). Proof. Assume the singular values are sorted ? as ?1 ? ?2 ? ? ? ?q , and let r be the largest index such ? ? that ?r > ?. Thus, M has rank r. Note that E(M M ? ) = U diag([ ? ? ?]+ )U ? , and therefore ? ? ?1 ?( E(M M ? )) M = U diag(?/ ?1?r , 0q?r )U ? P (5.4) where x1?k = (x1 , . . . , xk ) and ck = (c, . . . , c). It follows that ? ?1 M + ?( E(M M ? )) M = U diag(1r , 0q?r )U ? P. Now define H= 1 U diag(0r , 1q?r )U ? P ? (5.5) (5.6) ? ?1 and take V = ( E(M M ? )) M + H. Then we have M + ?V = P . ? It remains to?show that H satisfies the conditions of the subdifferential in (4.3). Since E(HH ? ) = ? U diag(0r , ?r+1 /?, . . . , ?q /?)U ? we have ???H???sp ? 1. Also, E(M H ? ) = 0q?q since ? (5.7) diag(1 ? ?/ ?1?r , 0q?r ) diag(0r , 1q?r /?) = 0q?q . Similarly, E(M M ? )H = 0q?q since ? diag(( ?1?r ? ?)2 , 0q?r ) diag(0r , 1q?r /?) = 0q?q . (5.8) It follows that V ? ????M ???sp . The analysis above justifies a backfitting algorithm for estimating a constrained rank additive model with the first penalty, where the objective is p p 2 1 min{ E?Y ? ? Mj (Xj )? + ? ? ???Mj ???? }. Mj 2 2 j=1 j=1 (5.9) For a given coordinate j, we form the residual Zj = Y ? ?k?j Mk , and then compute the projection Pj = E(Zj ? Xj ), with singular value decomposition E(Pj Pj? ) = U diag(? )U ? . We then update ? (5.10) Mj = U diag([1 ? ?/ ? ]+ )U ? Pj 5 and proceed to the next variable. This is a Gauss-Seidel procedure that parallels the population backfitting algorithm for S PAM [6]. In the sample version we replace the conditional expectation Pj = E(Zj ? Xj ) by a nonparametric linear smoother, P?j = Sj Zj . The algorithm is given in Figure 1. Note that to predict at a point x not included in the training set, the smoother matrices are constructed using that point; that is, P?j (xj ) = Sj (xj )? Zj . The algorithm for penalty 2 is similar. In step (3) of the algorithm in Figure 1 we compute the SVD ? ?1?p = U diag([1 ? ?/?? ] )U ? P?1?p . . Then, in step (4) we soft threshold according to M of n1 P?1?p P?1?p + Both algorithms can be viewed as functional projected gradient descent procedures. 6 Excess Risk Bounds The population risk of a q ? p regression matrix M (X) = [M1 (X1 )?Mp (Xp )] is R(M ) = E?Y ? M (X)1p ?22 , ? with sample version denoted R(M ). Consider all models that can be written as M (X) = U ? D ? V (X)? where U is an orthogonal q ? r matrix, D is a positive diagonal matrix, and V (X) = [vjs (Xj )] satisfies E(V ? V ) = Ir . The population risk can be reexpressed as ? ? ?I Y Y ?I R(M ) = tr {( q? ) E [( )( ) ] ( q? )} V (X)? V (X)? DU DU ? ? ?I = tr {( q? ) ( ?Y Y DU ?Y V ?Y V ?I ) ( q )} ?V V DU ? ? n (V ) replacing ?(V ) ?= Cov((Y, V (X)? )) above. The and similarly for the sample risk, with ? ?uncontrollable? contribution to the risk, which does not depend on M , is Ru = tr{?Y Y }. We can express the remaining ?controllable? risk as ? ?2Iq 0 Rc (M ) = R(M ) ? Ru = tr {( ) ?(V ) ( q ? )} . DU ? DU Using the von Neumann trace inequality, tr(AB) ? ?A?p ?B?p? where 1/p + 1/p? = 1, ? ?c (M ) ? ?( ?2Iq? ) (?(V ) ? ? ? n (V ))? ?( 0q ? )? Rc (M ) ? R DU DU ? sp ? ?2Iq ? n (V )? ?D? ? ?( ) ? ??(V ) ? ? ? sp DU ? sp ? n (V )? ?D? ? C max(2, ?D?sp ) ??(V ) ? ? ? sp 2 ? n (V )? ? C max{2, ?D?? } ??(V ) ? ? sp (6.1) where here and in the following C is a generic constant. For the last factor in (6.1), it holds that ? n (V )? ? C sup sup w? (?(V ) ? ? ? n (V )) w sup ??(V ) ? ? sp V V w?N where N is a 1/2-covering of the unit (q + r)-sphere, which has size ?N ? ? 6q+r ? 36q ; see [8]. We now assume that the functions vsj (xj ) are uniformly bounded from a Sobolev space of order two. Specifically, let {?jk ? k = 0, 1, . . .} denote a uniformly bounded, orthonormal basis with respect to L2 [0, 1], and assume that vsj ? Hj where ? ? k=0 k=0 Hj = {fj ? fj (xj ) = ? ajk ?jk (xj ), ? a2jk k 4 ? K 2 } ? for some 0 < K < ?. The L? -covering number of Hj satisfies log N (Hj , ) ? K/ . 6 Suppose that Y ? E(Y ? X) = W is Gaussian and the true regression function E(Y ? X) is bounded. ? ? n (V ))w is sub-Gaussian and Then the family of random variables Z(V,w) ?= n ? w? (?(V ) ? ? sample continuous. It follows from a result of Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi [1] that ? B C K ? ? E (sup sup w (?(V ) ? ?n (V ))w) ? ? ? q log(36) + log(pq) + ? d n 0  V w?N for some constant B. Thus, by Markov?s inequality we conclude that ? ? q + log(pq) ? ? n (V )? = OP sup ??(V ) ? ? . sp n ? ? V (6.2) 1/4 If ???M ???? = ?D?? = o (n/(q + log(pq))) , then returning to (6.1), this gives us a bound on Rc (M )? ?c (M ) that is oP (1). More precisely, we define a class of matrices of functions: R 1/4 ? ? ? ? n ? ? ) ?. Mn = ?M ? M (X) = U DV (X)? , with E(V ? V ) = I, vsj ? Hj , ?D?? = o ( ? ? q + log(pq) ? ? ? ? ? Then, for a fitted matrix M chosen from Mn , writing M? = arg minM ?M R(M ), we have n ?) ? inf R(M ) = R(M ?) ? R( ? M ?) ? (R(M? ) ? R(M ? ? )) + (R( ? M ?) ? R(M ? ? )) R(M M ?Mn ?) ? R( ? M ?)] ? [R(M? ) ? R(M ? ? )]. ? [R(M ?u from each of the bracketed differences, we obtain that Subtracting Ru ? R ?) ? inf R(M ) ? [Rc (M ?) ? R ?c (M ?)] ? [Rc (M? ) ? R ?c (M? )] R(M M ?Mn ?c (M )} ? 2 sup {Rc (M ) ? R M ?Mn by (6.1) ? (6.2) 2 ? n (V )? ) by = O (?D?? ??(V ) ? ? oP (1). sp This proves the following result. ? minimize the empirical risk 1 ?i ?Yi ? ?j Mj (Xij )?2 over the class Mn . Proposition 6.1. Let M 2 n Then P ?) ? inf R(M ) D? R(M 0. M ?Mn 7 Application to Gene Expression Data To illustrate the proposed nonparametric reduced rank regression techniques, we consider data on gene expression in E. coli from the ?DREAM 5 Network Inference Challenge?1 [3]. In this challenge genes were classified as transcription factors (TFs) or target genes (TGs). Transcription factors regulate the target genes, as well as other TFs. We focus on predicting the expression levels Y for a particular set of q = 27 TGs, using the expression levels X for p = 6 TFs. Our motivation for analyzing these 33 genes is that, according to the gold standard gene regulatory network used for the DREAM 5 challenge, the 6 TFs form the parent set common to two additional TFs, which have the 27 TGs as their child nodes. In fact, the two intermediate nodes d-separate the 6 TFs and the 27 TGs in a Bayesian network interpretation of this gold standard. This means that if we treat the gold standard as a causal network, then up to noise, the functional relationship between X and Y is given by the composition of a map g ? R6 ? R2 and a map h ? R2 ? R27 . If g and h are both linear, their composition h ? g is a linear map of rank no more than 2. As observed in Section 2, such a reduced rank linear model is a special case of an additive model with reduced rank in the sense of penalty 2. More generally, if g is an additive function and h is linear, then h ? g has rank at most 2 in the sense of penalty 2. Higher rank can in principle occur 1 http://wiki.c2b2.columbia.edu/dream/index.php/D5c4 7 Penalty 1, ? = 20 Penalty 2, ? = 5 Figure 2: Left: Penalty 1 with large tuning parameter. Right: Penalty 2 with tuning parameter obtained through 10-fold cross-validation. Plotted points are residuals holding out the given predictor. under functional composition, since even a univariate additive map h ? R ? Rq may have rank up to q under our penalties (recall that penalty 1 and 2 coincide for univariate maps). The backfitting algorithm of Figure 1 with penalty 1 and a rather aggressive choice of the tuning parameter ? produces the estimates shown in Figure 2, for which we have selected three of the 27 TGs. Under such strong regularization, the 5th column of functions is rank zero and, thus, identically zero. The remaining columns have rank one; the estimated fitted values are scalar multiples of one another. We also see that scalings can be different for different columns. The third plot in the third row shows a slightly negative slope, indicating a negative scaling for this particular estimate. The remaining functions in this row are oriented similarly to the other rows, indicating the same, positive scaling. This property characterizes the difference between penalties 1 and 2; in an application of penalty 2, the scalings would have been the same across all functions in a given row. Next, we illustrate a higher-rank solution for penalty 2. Choosing the regularization parameter ? by ten-fold cross-validation gives a fit of rank 5, considerably lower than 27, the maximum possible rank. Figure 2 shows a selection of three coordinates of the fitted functions. Under rank five, each row of functions is a linear combination of up to five other, linearly independent rows. We remark that the use of cross-validation generally produces somewhat more complex models than is necessary to capture an underlying low-rank data-generating mechanism. Hence, if the causal relationships for these data were indeed additive and low rank, then the true low rank might well be smaller than five. 8 Summary This paper introduced two penalties that induce reduced rank fits in multivariate additive nonparametric regression. Under linearity, the penalties specialize to group lasso and nuclear norm penalties for classical reduced rank regression. Examining the subdifferentials of each of these penalties, we developed backfitting algorithms for the two resulting optimization problems that are based on softthresholding of singular values of smoothed residual matrices. The algorithms were demonstrated on a gene expression data set constructed to have a naturally low-rank structure. We also provided a persistence analysis that shows error tending to zero under a scaling assumption on the sample size n and the dimensions q and p of the regression problem. Acknowledgements Research supported in part by NSF grants IIS-1116730, DMS-0746265, and DMS-1203762, AFOSR grant FA9550-09-1-0373, ONR grant N000141210762, and an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship. 8 References [1] Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi and G?abor Lugosi. On prediction of individual sequences. The Annals of Statistics, 27(6):1865?1894, 1999. [2] Maryam Fazel. Matrix rank minimization with applications. Technical report, Stanford University, 2002. Doctoral Dissertation, Electrical Engineering Department. [3] D. Marbach, J. C. Costello, R. K?uffner, N. Vega, R. J. Prill, D. M. Camacho, K. R. Allison, the DREAM5 Consortium, M. Kellis, J. J. Collins, and G. Stolovitzky. Wisdom of crowds for robust gene network inference. Nature Methods, 9(8):796?804, 2012. [4] Sahan Negahban and Martin J. Wainwright. Estimation of (near) low-rank matrices with noise and high-dimensional scaling. Annals of Statistics, 39:1069?1097, 2011. [5] Garvesh Raskutti, Martin J. Wainwright, and Bin Yu. Minimax-optimal rates for sparse additive models over kernel classes via convex programming. arxiv:1008.3654, 2010. [6] Pradeep Ravikumar, John Lafferty, Han Liu, and Larry Wasserman. Sparse additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Methodological, 71(5):1009?1030, 2009. [7] Benjamin Recht, Maryam Fazel, and Pablo A. Parrilo. Guaranteed minimum rank solutions to linear matrix equations via nuclear norm minimization. SIAM Review, 52(3):471?501, 2010. [8] Roman Vershynin. How close is the sample covariance matrix to the actual covariance matrix? arxiv:1004.3484, 2010. [9] G. A. Watson. Characterization of the subdifferential of some matrix norms. Linear Algebra and Applications, 170:1039?1053, 1992. [10] Ming Yuan, Ali Ekici, Zhaosong Lu, and Renato Monteiro. Dimension reduction and coeffcient estimation in multivariate linear regression. J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 69(3):329?346, 2007. [11] Ming Yuan and Yi Lin. Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68(1):49?67, 2006. 9
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A new metric on the manifold of kernel matrices with application to matrix geometric means Suvrit Sra Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems 72076 T?ubigen, Germany [email protected] Abstract Symmetric positive definite (spd) matrices pervade numerous scientific disciplines, including machine learning and optimization. We consider the key task of measuring distances between two spd matrices; a task that is often nontrivial whenever the distance function must respect the non-Euclidean geometry of spd matrices. Typical non-Euclidean distance measures such as the Riemannian metric ?R (X, Y ) = klog(Y ?1/2 XY ?1/2 )kF , are computationally demanding and also complicated to use. To allay some of these difficulties, we introduce a new metric on spd matrices, which not only respects non-Euclidean geometry but also offers faster computation than ?R while being less complicated to use. We support our claims theoretically by listing a set of theorems that relate our metric to ?R (X, Y ), and experimentally by studying the nonconvex problem of computing matrix geometric means based on squared distances. 1 Introduction Symmetric positive definite (spd) matrices1 are remarkably pervasive in a multitude of areas, especially machine learning and optimization. Several applications in these areas require an answer to the fundamental question: how to measure a distance between two spd matrices? This question arises, for instance, when optimizing over the set of spd matrices. To judge convergence of an optimization procedure or in the design of algorithms we may need to compute distances between spd matrices [1?3]. As a more concrete example, suppose we wish to retrieve from a large database of spd matrices the ?closest? spd matrix to an input query. The quality of such a retrieval depends crucially on the distance function used to measure closeness; a choice that also dramatically impacts the actual search algorithm itself [4, 5]. Another familiar setting is that of computing statistical metrics for multivariate Gaussian distributions [6], or more recently, quantum statistics [7]. Several other applications depend on being able to effectively measure distances between spd matrices?see e.g., [8?10] and references therein. In many of these domains, viewing spd matrices as members of a Euclidean vector space is insufficient, and the non-Euclidean geometry conferred by a suitable metric is of great importance. Indeed, the set of (strict) spd matrices forms a differentiable Riemannian manifold [11, 10] that is perhaps the most studied example of a manifold of nonpositive curvature [12; Ch.10]. These matrices also form a convex cone, and the set of spd matrices in fact serves as a canonical higher-rank symmetric space [13]. The conic view is of great importance in convex optimization [14?16], symmetric spaces are important in algebra and analysis [13, 17], and in optimization [14, 18], while the manifold and other views are also widely important?see e.g., [11; Ch.6] for an overview. 1 We could equally consider Hermitian matrices, but for simplicity we consider only real matrices. 1 The starting point for this paper is the manifold view. For space reasons, we limit our discussion to P(n) as a Riemannian manifold, noting that most of the discussion could also be set in terms of Finsler manifolds. But before we go further, let us fix basic notation. Notation. Let Sn denote the set of n ? n real symmetric matrices. A matrix A ? Sn is called positive (we drop the word ?definite? for brevity) if hx, Axi > 0 for all x 6= 0; also denoted as A > 0. (1) We denote the set of n ? n positive matrices by Pn . If only the non-strict inequality hx, Axi ? 0 holds (for all x ? Rn ) we say A is positive semidefinite; this is also denoted as A ? 0. For two matrices A, B ? Sn , the operator inequality A ? B means that p the difference A ? B ? 0. The Frobenius norm of a matrix X ? Rm?n is defined as kXkF = tr(X T X), while kXk denotes the standard operator norm. For an analytic function f on C, and a diagonalizable matrix A = U ?U T , f (A) := U f (?)U T . Let ?(X) denote the vector of eigenvalues of X (in any order) and Eig(X) a diagonal matrix that has ?(X) as its diagonal. We also use ?? (X) to denote a sorted (in descending order) version of ?(X) and ?? (X) is defined likewise. Finally, we define Eig? (X) and Eig? (X) as the corresponding diagonal matrices. Background. The set Pn is a canonical higher-rank symmetric space that is actually an open set within Sn , and thereby a differentiable manifold of dimension n(n + 1)/2. The tangent space at a point A ? Pn can be identified with Sn , so a suitable inner-product on Sn leads to the Riemannian distance on Pn [11; Ch.6]. At the point A this metric is induced by the differential form ds2 = kA?1/2 dAA?1/2 k2F = tr(A?1 dAA?1 dA). (2) For A, B ? Pn , it is known that there is a unique geodesic joining them given by [11; Thm.6.1.6]: ?(t) := A]t B := A1/2 (A?1/2 BA?1/2 )t A1/2 , 0 ? t ? 1, (3) and its midpoint ?(1/2) is the geometric mean of A and B. The associated Riemannian metric is ?R (A, B) := klog(A?1/2 BA?1/2 )kF , for A, B > 0. (4) From definition (4) it is apparent that computing ?R will be computationally demanding, and requires care. Indeed, to compute (4) we must essentially compute generalized eigenvalues of A and B. For an application that must repeatedly compute distances between numerous pairs of matrices this computational burden can be excessive [4]. Driven by such computational concerns, Cherian et al. [4] introduced a symmetrized ?log-det? based matrix divergence:   J(A, B) = log det A+B ? 21 log det(AB) for A, B > 0. (5) 2 This divergence was used as a proxy for ?R and observed that J(A, B) offers the same level of performance on a difficult nearest neighbor retrieval task as ?R , while being many times faster! Among other reasons, a large part of their speedup was attributed to the avoidance of eigenvalue computations for obtaining J(A, B) or its derivatives, a luxury the ?R does not permit. Independently, Chebbi and Moahker [2] also introduced a slightly generalized version of (5) and studied some of its properties, especially computation of ?centroids? of positive matrices using their matrix divergence. p Interestingly, Cherian et al. [4]p claimed that J(A, B) might not be metric, whereas Chebbi and Moahker [2] conjectured that J(A, B) is a metric. We resolve this uncertainty and prove that p J(A, B) is indeed a metric, albeit not one that embeds isometrically into a Hilbert space. Due to space constraints, we only summarily mention several ? of the properties that this metric satisfies, primarily to help develop intuition that motivates J as a good proxy for the Riemannian metric ?R . We apply these insights to study ?matrix geometric means? of set of positive matrices: a problem also studied in [4, 2]. Both cited papers have some gaps in their claims, which we fill by proving that even though computing the geometric mean is a nonconvex problem, we can still compute it efficiently and optimally. 2 2 The ?`d metric The main result of this paper is Theorem 1. Theorem 1. Let J be as in (5), and define ?`d := ? J. Then, ?`d is a metric on Pn . Our proof of Theorem 1 depends on several key steps. Due to restrictions on space we cannot include full proofs of all the results, and refer the reader to the longer article [19] instead. We do, however, provide sketches for the crucial steps in our proof. Proposition 2. Let A, B, C ? Pn . Then, (i) ?`d (I, A) = ?`d (I, Eig(A)); (ii) for P, Q ? GL(n, C), ? ? ?`d (P AQ, P BQ) = ?`d (A, B); (iii) for X ? GL(n, C), ?? `d (X AX, X BX) = ?`d (A, B); ?1 ?1 (iv) ?`d (A, B) = ?`d (A , B ); (v) ?`d (A ? B, A ? C) = n?`d (B, C), where ? denotes the Kronecker or tensor product. The first crucial result is that for positive scalars, ?`d is indeed a metric. To prove this, recall the notion of negative definite functions (Def. 3), and a related classical result of Schoenberg (Thm. 4). Definition 3 ([20; Def. 1.1]). Let X be a nonempty set. A function ? : X ? X ? R is said to be negative definite if for all x, y ? X it is symmetric (?(x, y) = ?(y, x)), and satisfies the inequality Xn ci cj ?(xi , xj ) ? 0, (6) i,j=1 Pn n n for all integers n ? 2, and subsets {xi }i=1 ? X , {ci }i=1 ? R with i=1 ci = 0. Theorem 4 ([20; Prop. 3.2, Chap. 3]). Let ? : X ? X ? R be negative definite. Then, there is a Hilbert space H ? RX and a mapping x 7? ?(x) from X ? H such that we have the equality k?(x) ? ?(y)k2H = ?(x, y) ? 12 (?(x, x) + ?(y, y)). (7) Moreover, negative definiteness of ? is necessary for such a mapping to exist. ? Theorem 5 (Scalar case). Define ?s2 (x, y) := log[(x + y)/(2 xy)] for scalars x, y > 0. Then, ?s (x, y) ? ?s (x, z) + ?s (y, z) for all x, y, z > 0. (8)  Proof. We show that ?(x, y) = log x+y is negative definite. Since ?s2 (x, y) = ?(x, y) ? 2 1 2 (?(x, x)+?(y, y)), Thm. 4 then implies the triangle inequality (8). To prove ? is negative definite, by [Thm. 2.2, Chap. 3, 20] we may equivalently show that e???(x,y) = ((x + y)/2)?? is a positive definite function for ? > 0, and all x, y > 0. To that end, it suffices to show that the matrix   H = [hij ] = (xi + xj )?? , 1 ? i, j ? n, n is positive definite for every integer n ? 1, and positive numbers {xi }i=1 . Now, observe that Z ? 1 1 hij = = e?t(xi +xj ) t??1 dt, (9) (xi + xj )? ?(?) 0 R? ??1 where ?(?) = 0 e?t t??1 dt is the well-known Gamma function. Thus, with fi (t) = e?txi t 2 ? L2 ([0, ?)), we see that [hij ] equals the Gram matrix [hfi , fj i], whereby H > 0. Using Thm. 5 we obtain the following simple but important ?Minkowsi? inequality for ?s . Corollary 6. Let x, y, z > 0 be scalars, and let p ? 1. Then, Xn 1/p Xn 1/p Xn 1/p ?sp (xi , yi ) ? ?sp (xi , zi ) + ?sp (yi , zi ) . i=1 i=1 i=1 (10) Corollary 7. Let X, Y, Z > 0 be diagonal matrices. Then, ?`d (X, Y ) ? ?`d (X, Z) + ?`d (Y, Z) Next, we recall a fundamental determinantal inequality. Theorem 8 ([21; Exercise VI.7.2]). Let A, B ? Pn . Then, Yn Yn (??i (A) + ??i (B)) ? det(A + B) ? (??i (A) + ??i (B)). i=1 i=1 3 (11) (12) Corollary 9. Let A, B > 0. Then, ?`d (Eig? (A), Eig? (B)) ? ?`d (A, B) ? ?`d (Eig? (A), Eig? (B)) The final result that we need is a well-known fact from linear algebra (our own proof is in [19]). Lemma 10 ([e.g., 22; p.58]). Let A > 0, and let B be Hermitian. There is a matrix P for which P ? AP = I, and P ? BP = D, and D is diagonal. (13) With all these theorems and lemmas in hand, we are now finally ready to prove Thm. 1. Proof. (Theorem 1). We must prove that ?`d is symmetric, nonnegative, definite, and that is satisfies the triangle inequality. Symmetry is immediate from definition. Nonnegativity and definiteness follow from the strict log-concavity (on Pn ) of the determinant, whereby  det X+Y ? det(X)1/2 det(Y )1/2 , 2 which equality iff X = Y , which in turn implies that ?`d (X, Y ) ? 0 with equality iff X = Y . The only hard part is to prove the triangle inequality, a result that has eluded previous attempts [4, 2]. Let X, Y, Z > 0 be arbitrary. From Lemma 10 we know that there is a matrix P such that P ? XP = I and P ? Y P = D. Since Z > 0 is arbitrary, and congruence preserves positive definiteness, we may write just Z instead of P ? ZP . Also, since ?`d (P ? XP, P ? Y P ) = ?`d (X, Y ) (see Prop. 2), proving the triangle inequality reduces to showing that ?`d (I, D) ? ?`d (I, Z) + ?`d (D, Z). (14) ? ? Consider now the diagonal matrices D and Eig (Z). Corollary 7 asserts the inequality ?`d (I, D? ) ? ?`d (I, Eig? (Z)) + ?`d (D? , Eig? (Z)). (15) ? ? Prop. 2(i) implies that ?`d (I, D) = ?`d (I, D ) and ?`d (I, Z) = ?`d (I, Eig (Z)), while Cor. 9 shows that ?`d (D? , Eig? (Z)) ? ?`d (D, Z). Combining these inequalities, we obtain (14), as desired. Although the metric space (Pn , ?`d ) has numerous fascinating properties, due to space concerns, we do not discuss it further. Instead we discuss a connection more important to machine learning and related areas: kernel functions arising from ?`d . Indeed, some of connections (e.g., Thm. 11) have already been successfully applied very recently in computer vision [23]. 2.1 Hilbert space embedding of ?`d Theorem 1 shows that ?`d is a metric and Theorem 5 shows that actually for positive scalars, the metric space (R++ , ?s ) embeds isometrically into a Hilbert space. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether (Pn , ?`d ) also admits such an embedding? 2 Theorem 4 says that such a kernel exists if and only if ?`d is negative definite; equivalently, iff 2 e???`d (X,Y ) = det(XY )? , det((X+Y )/2)? is a positive definite kernel for all ? > 0. To verify this, it suffices to check if the matrix h i H? = [hij ] := det(Xi1+Xj )? , 1 ? i, j ? m, (16) (17) is positive for every integer m ? 1 and arbitrary positive matrices X1 , . . . , Xm . Unfortunately, a numerical experiment (see [19]) reveals that H? is not always positive. This implies that (Pd , ?`d ) cannot embed isometrically into a Hilbert space. Undeterred, we still ask: For what choices of ? is H? positive? Surprisingly, this question admits a complete answer. Theorem 11 characterizes the values of ? necessary and sufficient for H? to be positive. We note here that the case ? = 1 was essentially treated in [24], in the context of semigroup kernels on measures. Theorem 11. Let X1 , . . . , Xm ? Pn . The matrix H? defined by (17) is positive, if and only if   ? ? 2j : j ? N, and 1 ? j ? (n ? 1) ? ? : ? ? R, and ? > 12 (n ? 1) . (18) 4 T 1 e?x Xi x (for 1 ? i ? m). Then, Proof. We first prove the ?if? part. Define the function fi := ?n/4 n fi ? L2 (R ), where the inner-product is given by the Gaussian integral Z T 1 1 hfi , fj i := d/2 e?x (Xi +Xj )x dx = det(Xi +X (19) 1/2 . j) ? n R From (19) it follows that H1/2 is positive. Since the Schur (elementwise) product of two positive matrices is again positive, it follows that H? > 0 whenever ? is an integer multiple of 1/2. To extend the result to all ? covered by (18), we need a more intricate integral representation, namely the multivariate Gamma function, defined as [25; ?2.1.2] Z ?n (?) := e? tr(A) det(A)??(n+1)/2 dA, (20) Pn where the integral converges for ? > 12 (n ? 1). Define for each i the function fi := ce? tr(AXi ) (c > 0 is a constant). Then, fi ? L2 (Pn ), which we equip with the inner product Z e? tr(A(Xi +Xj )) det(A)??(n+1)/2 dA = det(Xi + Xj )?? , hfi , fj i := c2 Pn and it exists whenever ? > 21 (n ? 1). Consequently, H? is positive for all ? defined by (18). The ?only if? part follows from deeper results in the rich theory of symmetric spaces.2 Specifically, since Pn is a symmetric cone, and 1/ det(X) is a decreasing function on this cone, (i.e., 1/ det(X + Y ) ? 1/ det(X) for all X, Y > 0), an appeal to [26; VII.3.1] grants our claim. Remark 12. Readers versed in stochastic processes will recognize that the above result provides a different perspective on a classical result concerning infinite divisibility of Wishart processes [27], where the set (18) also arises as a consequence of Gindikin?s theorem [28]. At this point, it is worth mentioning the following ?obvious? result. Theorem 13. Let X be a set of positive matrices that commute with each other. Then, (X , ?`d ) can be isometrically embedded into some Hilbert space. Proof. The proof follows because a commuting set of matrices can be simultaneously diagonalized, P 2 and for diagonal matrices, ?`d (X, Y ) = i ?s2 (Xii , Yii ), which is a nonnegative sum of negative definite kernels and is therefore itself negative definite. 3 Connections between ?`d and ?R After showing that ?`d is a metric and studying its relation to kernel functions, let us now return to our original motivation: introducing ?`d as a reasonable alternative to the widely used Riemannian metric ?R . We note here that Cherian et al. [4; 29] offer strong experimental evidence supporting ?`d as an alternative; we offer more theoretical results. Our theoretical results are based around showing that ?`d fulfills several properties akin to those displayed by ?R . Due to lack of space, we present only a summary of our results in Table 1, and cite the corresponding theorems in the longer article [19] for proofs. While the actual proofs are valuable and instructive, the key message worth noting is: both ?R and ?`d express the (negatively curved) non-Euclidean geometry of their respective metric spaces by displaying similar properties. 4 Application: computing geometric means In this section we turn our attention to an object that perhaps connects ?R and ?`d most intimately: the operator geometric mean (GM), which is given by the midpoint of the geodesic (3), denoted as A]B := ?(1/2) = A1/2 (A?1/2 BA?1/2 )1/2 A1/2 . (21) 2 Specifically, the set (18) is identical to the Wallach set which is important in the study of Hilbert spaces of holomorphic functions over symmetric domains [26; Ch.XIII]. 5 Riemannian metric ?R (X ? AX, X ? BX) = ?R (A, B) ?R (A?1 , B ?1 ) = ?R (A, B) ?R (At , B t ) ? t?R (A, B) ?R (As , B s ) ? (s/u)?R (Au , B u ) ?R (A, A]B) = ?R (B, A]B) ?R (A, A]t B) = t?R (A, B) ?R (A]t B, A]t C) ? t?R (B, C) min 2 2 ?R (X, A) + ?R (X, B) 7? GM ?R (A + X, A + Y ) ? ?R (X, Y ) Ref. [11; Ch.6] [11; Ch.6] [11; Ex.6.5.4] [19; Th.4.11] Trivial [11; Th.6.1.6] [11; Th.6.1.2] ?`d -metric ?`d (X ? AX, X ? BX) = ?`d (A, B) ?`d (A?1 , B ?1 )?= ?`d (A, B) ?`d (At , B t ) ? pt?`d (A, B) ?`d (As , B s ) ? s/u?`d (Au , B u ) ?`d (A, A]B) = ?? `d (B, A]B) ?`d (A, A]t B) ? t?? `d (A, B) ?`d (A]t B, A]t C) ? t?`d (B, C) [11; Ch. 6] [3] 2 2 ?`d (X, A) + ?`d (X, B) 7? GM ?`d (A + X, A + Y ) ? ?`d (X, Y ) min Ref. Prop. 2 Prop. 2 [19; Th.4.6] [19; Th.4.11] Th.14 [19; Th.4.7] [19; Th.4.8] Th.14 [19; Th.4.9] Table 1: Some of the similarities between ?R and ?`d . All matrices are assumed to be in Pn . The scalars t, s, u satisfy 0 < t ? 1, 1 ? s ? u < ?. The GM (21) has numerous attractive properties?see for instance [30]?among these, the following variational characterization is very important [31, 32], A]B = argminX>0 2 2 ?R (A, X) + ?R (B, X). (22) especially because it generalizes the matrix geometric mean to more than two matrices. Specifically, this ?natural? generalization is the Karcher mean (Fr?echet mean) [31, 32, 11]: Xm 2 GM (A1 , . . . , Am ) := argminX>0 ?R (X, Ai ). (23) i=1 This multivariable generalization is in fact a well-studied difficult problem?see e.g., [33] for information on state-of-the-art. Indeed, its inordinate computational expenses motivated Cherian et al. [4] to study the alternative mean Xm 2 GM`d (A1 , . . . , Am ) := argmin ?(X) := ?`d (X, Ai ), (24) i=1 X>0 which has also been more thoroughly studied by Chebbi and Moahker [2]. Although the mean (24) was previously studied in [4, 2], some crucial aspects were missing. Specifically, Cherian et al. [4] only proved their solution to be a stationary point of ?(X); they did not prove either global or local optimality. Although Chebbi and Moahker [2] showed that (24) has a unique solution, like [4] they too only proved stationarity, neither global nor local optimality. We fill these gaps, and we make the following main contributions below: 1. We connect (24) to the Karcher mean more closely, where in Theorem 14 we shows that for the two matrix case both problems have the same solution; 2. We show that the unique positive solution to (24) is globally optimal; this result is particularly interesting because ?(X) is nonconvex. We begin by looking at the two variable case of GM`d (24). Theorem 14. Let A, B > 0. Then, A]B = argminX>0 2 2 ?(X) := ?`d (X, A) + ?`d (X, B). (25) Moreover, A]B is equidistant from A and B, i.e., ?`d (A, A]B) = ?`d (B, A]B). Proof. If A = B, then clearly X = A minimizes ?(X). Assume therefore, that A 6= B. Ignoring the constraint X > 0 momentarily, we see that any stationary point must satisfy ??(X) = 0. Thus, ?1 1  ?1 X+B ?1 1 ??(X) = X+A =0 2 2 + 2 2 ?X =? (X + A)X ?1 (X + B) = 2X + A + B =? B = XA?1 X. (26) The latter equation is a Riccati equation that is known to have a unique, positive definite solution given by the matrix GM (21) (see [11; Prop 1.2.13]). All that remains to show is that this GM is in fact a local minimizer. To that end, we must show that the Hessian ?2 ?(X) > 0 at X = A]B; but this claim is immediate from Theorem 18. So A]B is a strict local minimum of (8), which is actually a global minimum because it is the unique positive solution to ?(X) = 0. Finally, the equidistance property follows after some algebraic manipulations; we omit details for brevity [19]. 6 Let us now turn to the general case (24). The first-order optimality condition is Xm  1 X+Ai ?1 ??(X) = ? 12 mX ?1 = 0, X > 0. 2 2 i=1 (27) From (27) using Lemma 15 it can be inferred that [see also 2, 4] that any critical point X of (24) lies   Pm Pm ?1 ?1 1 1 in a convex, compact set specified by m X m i=1 Ai i=1 Ai . Lemma 15 ([21; Ch.5]). The map X ?1 on Pn is order reversing and operator convex. That is, for ?1 X, Y ? Pn , if X ? Y , then X ?1 ? Y ?1 ; for t ? [0, 1], (tX + (1 ? t)Y ) ? tX ?1 +(1?t)Y ?1 . Lemma 16 ([19]). Let A, B, C, D ? Pn , so that A ? B and C ? D. Then, A ? C ? B ? D. Lemma 17 (Uniqueness [2]). The nonlinear equation (27) has a unique positive solution. Using the above results, we can finally prove the main theorem of this section. Theorem 18. Let X be a matrix satisfying (27). Then, it is the unique global minimizer of (24). Proof. The objective function ?(X) (24) has only one positive stationary point, which follows from Lemma 17. Let X be this stationary point satisfying (27). We show that X is actually a local minimum; global optimality is immediate from uniqueness of X. To show local optimality, we prove that the Hessian ?2 ?(X) > 0. Ignoring constants, showing positivity of the Hessian reduces to proving that Xm  ?1 1 X+Ai ?1 i ? X+A > 0. (28) mX ?1 ? X ?1 ? 2 2 2 i=1 Now replace mX ?1 in (28) using the condition (27); therewith inequality (28) turns into  Xm Xm    ?1 X+Ai ?1 X+Ai ?1 ? X ?1 > ? (X + Ai ) 2 2 i=1 i=1 Xm Xm   ?1 X+Ai ?1 X+Ai ?1 ?? ? X ?1 > ? (X + Ai ) . 2 2 i=1 (29) i=1 ?1 From Lemma 15 we know that X ?1 > (X + Ai ) , so that an application of Lemma 16 shows that  ?1 ?1 X+Ai ?1 i ? X ?1 > X+A ? (X + Ai ) for 1 ? i ? m. Summing up, we obtain (29), 2 2 which implies the desired local (and by uniqueness, global) optimality of X. Remark 19. It is worth noting that Theorem 18 establishes that solving (27) yields the global minimum of a nonconvex optimization problem. This result is even more remarkable because unlike CAT(0)-metrics such as ?R , the metric ?`d is not geodesically convex. 4.1 Numerical Results We present a key numerical result to illustrate the large savings in running time when computing with ?`d when compared with ?R . To compute the Karcher mean we downloaded the ?Matrix Means Toolbox? of Bini and Iannazzo from http://bezout.dm.unipi.it/software/mmtoolbox/. In particular, we use the file called rich.m which implements a state-of-the-art method [33]. The first plot in Fig. 1 indicate that ?`d can be around 5 times faster than ?R2 and up to 50 times faster than ?R1 . The second plot shows how expensive it can be to compute GM (23) as opposed to GM`d (24)?up to 1000 times! The former was computed using the method of [33], while the latter runs the fixed-point iteration proposed in [2] (the iteration was run until k??(X)k fell below 10?10 ). The key point here is not that the fixed-point iteration is faster, but rather that (24) is a much simpler problem thanks to the convenient eigenvalue free structure of ?`d . 5 Conclusions and future work We presented a new metric on the manifold of positive definite matrices, and related it to the classical Riemmannian metric on this manifold. Empirically, our new metric was shown to lead to large computational gains, while theoretically, a series of theorems demonstrated how it expresses the negatively curved non-Euclidean geometry in a manner analogous to the Riemannian metric. 7 Time taken to compute ?R and ?S 2 Time taken to compute GM and GMld for 10 matrices 3 10 10 1 2 10 Running time (seconds) Running time (seconds) 10 0 10 ?1 10 ?2 10 ?R1 ?3 10 1 10 0 10 ?1 GM GMld 10 ?R2 ?S ?4 10 0 ?2 500 1000 1500 Dimensionality (n) of the matrices used 10 2000 0 50 100 150 Dimensionality (n) of the matrices used 200 Figure 1: Running time comparisons between ?R and ?`d . The left panel shows time (in seconds) taken to compute ?R and ?`d , averaged over 10 runs to reduce variance. In the plot, ?R1 refers to the implementation of ?R in the matrix means toolbox [33], while ?R2 is our own implementation. At this point, there are several directions of future work opened by our paper. We mention some of the most relevant ones below. 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Clarendon Press, 1994. [27] M.-F. Bru. Wishart Processes. J. Theoretical Probability, 4(4), 1991. [28] S. G. Gindikin. Invariant generalized functions in homogeneous domains. Functional Analysis and its Applications, 9:50?52, 1975. [29] A. Cherian, S. Sra, A. Banerjee, and N. Papanikolopoulos. Jensen-Bregman LogDet Divergence with Application to Efficient Similarity Search for Covariance Matrices. IEEE TPAMI, 2012. Submitted. [30] T. Ando. Concavity of certain maps on positive definite matrices and applications to hadamard products. Linear Algebra and its Applications, 26(0):203?241, 1979. [31] R. Bhatia and J. A. R. Holbrook. Riemannian geometry and matrix geometric means. Linear Algebra Appl., 413:594?618, 2006. [32] M. Moakher. A differential geometric approach to the geometric mean of symmetric positive-definite matrices. SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl. (SIMAX), 26:735?747, 2005. [33] D. A. Bini and B. Iannazzo. Computing the Karcher mean of symmetric positive definite matrices. Linear Algebra and its Applications, Oct. 2011. Available online. 9
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Clustering by Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Using Graph Random Walk Zhirong Yang, Tele Hao, Onur Dikmen, Xi Chen and Erkki Oja Department of Information and Computer Science Aalto University, 00076, Finland {zhirong.yang,tele.hao,onur.dikmen,xi.chen,erkki.oja}@aalto.fi Abstract Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) is a promising relaxation technique for clustering analysis. However, conventional NMF methods that directly approximate the pairwise similarities using the least square error often yield mediocre performance for data in curved manifolds because they can capture only the immediate similarities between data samples. Here we propose a new NMF clustering method which replaces the approximated matrix with its smoothed version using random walk. Our method can thus accommodate farther relationships between data samples. Furthermore, we introduce a novel regularization in the proposed objective function in order to improve over spectral clustering. The new learning objective is optimized by a multiplicative Majorization-Minimization algorithm with a scalable implementation for learning the factorizing matrix. Extensive experimental results on real-world datasets show that our method has strong performance in terms of cluster purity. 1 Introduction Clustering analysis as a discrete optimization problem is usually NP-hard. Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) as a relaxation technique for clustering has shown remarkable progress in the past decade (see e.g. [9, 4, 2, 26]). In general, NMF finds a low-rank approximating matrix to the input nonnegative data matrix, where the most popular approximation criterion or divergence in NMF is the Least Square Error (LSE). It has been shown that certain NMF variants with this divergence measure are equivalent to k-means, kernel k-means, or spectral graph cuts [7]. In addition, NMF with LSE can be implemented efficiently by existing optimization methods (see e.g. [16]). Although popularly used, previous NMF methods based on LSE often yield mediocre performance for clustering, especially for data that lie in a curved manifold. In clustering analysis, the cluster assignment is often inferred from pairwise similarities between data samples. Commonly the similarities are calculated based on Euclidean distances. For data in a curved manifold, only local Euclidean distances are reliable and similarities between non-neighboring samples are usually set to zero, which yields a sparse input matrix to NMF. If the LSE is directly used in approximation to such a similarity matrix, a lot of learning effort will be wasted due to the large majority of zero entries. The same problem occurs for clustering nodes of a sparse network. In this paper we propose a new NMF method for clustering such manifold data or sparse network data. Previous NMF clustering methods based on LSE used an approximated matrix that takes only similarities within immediate neighborhood into account. Here we consider multi-step similarities between data samples using graph random walk, which has shown to be an effective smoothing approach for finding global data structures such as clusters. In NMF the smoothing can reduce the sparsity gap in the approximation and thus ease cluster analysis. We name the new method NMF using graph Random walk (NMFR). 1 In implementation, we face two obstacles when the input matrix is replaced by its random walk version: (1) the performance of unconstrained NMFR remains similar to classical spectral clustering because smoothing that manipulates eigenvalues of Laplacian of the similarity graph does not change the eigensubspace; (2) The similarities by random walk require inverting an n ? n matrix for n data samples. Explicit matrix inversion is infeasible for large datasets. To overcome the above obstacles, we employ (1) a regularization technique that supplements the orthogonality constraint for better clustering, and (2) a more scalable fixed-point algorithm to calculate the product of the inverted matrix and the factorizing matrix. We have conducted extensive experiments for evaluating the new method. The proposed algorithm is compared with nine other state-of-the-art clustering approaches on a large variety of real-world datasets. Experimental results show that with only simple initialization NMFR performs pretty robust across 46 clustering tasks. The new method achieves the best clustering purity for 36 of the selected datasets, and nearly the best for the rest. In particular, NMFR is remarkably superior to the other methods for large-scale manifold data from various domains. In the remaining, we briefly review some related work of clustering by NMF in Section 2. In Section 3 we point out a major drawback in previous NMF methods with least square error and present our solution. Experimental settings and results are given in Section 4. Section 5 concludes the paper and discusses potential future work. 2 Pairwise Clustering by NMF Cluster analysis or clustering is the task of assigning a set of data samples into groups (called clusters) so that the objects in the same cluster are more similar to each other than to those in other clusters. Denote R+ = R ? {0}. The pairwise similarities between n data samples can be encoded n?n in an undirected graph with adjacency matrix S ? R+ . Because clustered data tend to have higher similarities within clusters and lower similarities between clusters, the similarity matrix in visualization has nearly diagonal blockwise looking if we sort the rows and columns by clusters. Such structure motivated approximative low-rank factorization of S by the cluster indicator matrix U ? {0, 1}n?r for r clusters: S ? U U T , where Uik = 1 if the i-th sample is assigned to the k-th cluster and 0 otherwise. Moreover, clusters of balanced sizes are desired in most clustering tasks. This can be achieved by suitableqnormalization of the approximating matrix. A common way is to P P T T normalize Uik by Mik = Uik / j Ujk such that M M = I and i (M M )ij = 1 (see e.g. [6, 7, 27]). However, directly optimizing over U or M is difficult due to discrete solution space, which usually leads to an NP-hard problem. Continuous relaxation is thus needed to ease the optimization. One of the popular choices is nonnegativity and orthogonality constraint combination [11, 23]. That is, we replace M with W where Wik ? 0 and W T W = I. In this way, each row of W has only one non-zero entry because the non-zero parts of two nonnegative and orthogonal vectors do not overlap. Some other Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) relaxations exist, for example, the kernel Convex NMF [9] and its special case Projective NMF [23], as well as the relaxation by using a left-stochastic matrix [2]. A commonly used divergence that measures the approximation error is the squared Euclidean distance or Frobenius norm [15, 13]. The NMF objective to be minimized thus becomes Xh  i2 kS ? W W T k2F = Sij ? W W T ij . (1) ij The above least square error objective is widely used because we have better understanding of its algebra and geometric properties. For example, Zhao et al. [13] showed that the multiplicative optimization algorithm for the above Symmetric NMF (SNMF) problem is guaranteed to converge to a local minimum if S is positive semi-definite. Furthermore, SNMF with orthogonality has tight connection to classical objectives such as kernel k-means and normalized cuts [7, 23]. In this paper, we choose this divergence also because it is the sole one in ??-divergence family [5] that involves only the product SW instead of S itself in the gradient. As we shall see in Section 3.2, this property enables a scalable implementation of gradient-based optimization algorithm. 2 Figure 1: Illustration of clustering the SEMEION handwritten digit dataset by NMF based on LSE: (a) the symmetrized 5-NN graph, (b) the correct clusters to be found, (c) the ideally assumed data that suits the least square error, (d) the smoothed input by using graph random walk. The matrix entries are visualized as image pixels. Darker pixels represent higher similarities. For clarity we show only the subset of digits ?2? and ?3?. In this paper we show that because (d) is ?closer? to (c) than (a), it is easier to find correct clusters using (d)?(b) instead of (a)?(b) by NMF with LSE . 3 NMF Using Graph Random Walk There is a serious drawback in previous NMF clustering methods using least square errors. When b 2 for given S, the approximating matrix Sb should be diagonal blockwise for minimizing kS ? Sk F clustering analysis, as shown in Figure 1 (b). Correspondingly, the ideal input S for LSE should look like Figure 1 (c) because the underlying distribution of LSE is Gaussian. However, the similarity matrix of real-world data often occurs differently from the ideal case. In many clustering tasks, the raw features of data are usually weak. That is, the given distance measure between data points, such as the Euclidean distance, is only valid in a small neighborhood. The similarities calculated from such distances are thus sparse, where the similarities between nonneighboring samples are usually set to zero. For example, symmetrized K-nearest-neighbor (K-NN) graph is a popularly used similarity input. Therefore, similarity matrices in real-world clustering tasks often look like Figure 1 (a), where the non-zero entries are much sparser than the ideal case. It is a mismatch to approximate a sparse similarity matrix by a dense diagonal blockwise matrix using LSE. Because squared Euclidean distance is a symmetric metric, the learning objective can be dominated by the approximation to the majority of zero entries, which is undesired for finding correct cluster assignments. Although various matrix factorization schemes and factorizing matrix 3 constraints have been proposed for NMF, little research effort has been made to overcome the above mismatch. In this work we present a different way to formalize NMF for clustering to reduce the sparsity gap between input and output matrices. Instead of approximation to the sparse input S, which only encodes the immediate similarities between data samples, we propose to approximate a smoothed version of S which takes farther relationships between data samples into account. Graph random walk ?1/2 is a common way to implement multi-step similarities. Denote SD?1/2 the normalized PQ = D similarity matrix, where D is a diagonal matrix with Dii = j Sij . The similarities between data j nodes using j steps are given by (?Q) , where ? ? (0, 1) is a decay parameter controlling the ranP? j dom walk extent. Summing over all possible numbers of steps gives j=0 (?Q) = (I ? ?Q)?1 . We thus propose to replace S in Eq. (1) with A = c?1 (I ? ?Q)?1 , (2)  P  where c = ij (I ? ?Q)?1 ij is a normalizing factor. Here the parameter ? controls the smoothness: a larger ? tends to produce smoother A while a smaller one makes A concentrate on its diagonal. A smoothed approximated matrix A is shown in Figure 1 (d), from which we can see the sparsity gap to the approximating matrix is reduced. Just smoothing the input matrix by random walk is not enough, as we are presented with two difficulties. First, random walk only alters the spectrum of Q, while the eigensubspaces of A and Q are the same. Smoothing therefore does not change the result of clustering algorithms that operate on the eigenvectors (e.g. [20]). If we simply replace S by A in Eq. (1), the resulting W is often the same as the leading eigenvectors of Q up to an r ? r rotation. That is, smoothing by random walk itself can bring little improvement unless we impose extra constraints or regularization. Second, explicitly calculating A is infeasible because when S is large and sparse, A is also large but dense. This requires a more careful design of a scalable optimization algorithm. Below we present solutions to overcome these two difficulties in Sections 3.1 and 3.2, respectively. 3.1 Learning Objective Minimizing kA ? W W T k2F over W subject to W T W = I is equivalent to maximizing Tr W T AW . To improve over spectral clustering, we propose to regularize the trace maximization by an extra penalty term on W . The new optimization problem for pairwise clustering is: !2 X X  T 2 minimize J (W ) = ?Tr W AW + ? Wik (3) W ?0 i k subject to W T W = I, (4) where ? > 0 is the tradeoff parameter. We find that ? = 1 2r works well in this work. The extra penalty term collaborates with the orthogonality constraint for pairwise clustering, which is justified by two interpretations.  P P 2 2 ? It emphasizes off-diagonal correlation in the trace. Because = i k Wik  P T 2 , the minimization tends to reduce the diagonal magnitude in the approxii WW ii mating matrix. This is desired because self-similarities usually give little information for grouping data samples. Given the constraints W ? 0 and W T W = I, it is beneficial to push the magnitudes in W W T off-diagonal for maximizing the correlation to similarities between different data samples. P 2 ? It tends toPequalize the norms of W rows. ToP see this, let us write ai ? P k Wik for brevity. 2 Because i ai = r is constant, minimizing i ai actually maximizing ij:i6=j ai aj . The maximum is achieved when {ai }ni=1 are equal. Originally, the nonnegativity and orthogonality constraint combination only guarantees that each row of W has one non-zero entry, though norms of different W rows can be diverse. The equalization by the proposed penalty term thus well supplements the nonnegativity and orthogonality constraints and, as a whole, provides closer relaxation to the normalized cluster indicator matrix M . 4 Algorithm 1 Large-Scale Relaxed Majorization and Minimization Algorithm for W Input: similarity matrix S, random walk extent ? ? (0, 1), number of clusters r, nonnegative initial guess of W . repeat Calculate c=IterativeTracer(Q,?, e). Calculate G=IterativeSolver(Q,?, W ). Update W by Eq. (5), using c?1 G in place of AW . until W converges Discretized W to cluster indicator matrix U Output: U . function I TERATIVE T RACER(Q, ?, W ) F =IterativeSolver(Q,?, W ) return Tr(W T F ) end function function I TERATIVE S OLVER(Q, ?, W ) Initialize F = W repeat Update F ? ?QF + (1 ? ?)W until F converges return F/(1 ? ?) end function 3.2 Optimization The optimization algorithm is developed by following the procedure in [24, 26]. Introducing Lagrangian multipliers {? constraint, we have the augmented objective  kl } for the orthogonality  L(W, ?) = J (W ) + Tr ? W T W ? I . Using the Majorization-Minimization development procedure in [24, 26], we can obtain the preliminary multiplicative update rule. We then use the orthogonality constraint to solve the multipliers. Substituting the multipliers in the preliminary update rule, we obtain an optimization algorithm which iterates the following multiplicative update rule: "  #1/4 AW + 2?W W T V W ik new Wik = Wik (5) (2?V W + W W T AW )ik P where V is a diagonal matrix with Vii = l Wil2 .   1 T ?J new Theorem 1. L(W , ?) ? L(W, ?) for ? = W . 2 ?W The proof is given the appendix. Note that J (W ) does not necessarily decrease after each iteration. Instead, the monotonicity stated in the theorem justifies that the above algorithm jointly minimizes the J (W ) and drives W towards the manifold defined by the orthogonality constraint. After W converges, we discretize it and obtain the cluster indicator matrix U . It is a crucial observation that the update rule Eq. (5) requires only the product of (I ? ?Q)?1 with a low-rank matrix instead of A itself. We can thus avoid expensive computation and storage of large smoothed similarity matrix. There is an iterative and more scalable way to calculate F = (I ? ?Q)?1 W [29]. See the IterativeSolver function in Algorithm 1. In practice, the calculation for F usually converges nicely within 100 iterations. The same technique can be applied to calculating the normalizing factor c in Eq. (2), using e = [1, 1, . . . , 1] instead of W . The resulting algorithm for optimization w.r.t. W is summarized in Algorithm 1. Matlab codes can be found in [1]. 3.3 Initialization Most state-of-the-art clustering methods involve non-convex optimization objectives and thus only return local optima in general. This is also the case for our algorithm. To achieve a better local 5 optimum, a clustering algorithm should start from one or more relatively considerate initial guesses. Different strategies for choosing the starting point can be classified into the following levels, sorted by their computational cost: Level-0: (random-init) The starting relaxed indicator matrix is filled by randomly generated numbers. Level-1: (simple-init) The starting matrix is the result of a cheap clustering method, e.g. Normalized Cut or k-means, plus a small perturbation. Level-2: (family-init) The initial guesses are results of the methods in a parameterized family. Typical examples include various regularization extents or Bayesian priors with different hyperparameters (see e.g. [25]). Level-3: (meta-init) The initial guesses can come from methods of various principles. Each initialization method runs only once. Level-4: (meta-co-init) Same as Level-3 except that clustering methods provide initialization for each other. A method can serve initialization multiple times if it finds a better local minimum. The whole procedure stops when each of the involved methods fails to find better local optimum (see e.g. [10]). Some methods are not sensitive to initializations but tend to return less accurate clustering. On the other hand, some other methods can find more accurate results but require comprehensive initialization. A preferable clustering method should achieve high accuracy with cheap initialization. As we shall see, the proposed NMFR algorithm can attain satisfactory clustering accuracy with only simple initialization (Level-1). 4 Experiments We have compared our method against a variety of state-of-the-art clustering methods, including Projective NMF [23], Nonnegative Spectral Cut (NSC) [8], (symmetric) Orthogonal NMF (ONMF) [11], Left-Stochastic matrix Decomposition (LSD) [2], Data-Cluster-Data decomposition (DCD) [25], as well as classical Normalized Cut (Ncut) [21]. We also selected two recent clustering methods beyond NMF: 1-Spectral (1Spec) [14] which uses balanced graph cut, and Interaction Component Model (ICM) [22] which is the symmetric version of topic model [3]. We used default settings in the compared methods. For 1Spec, we used ratio Cheeger cut. For ICM, the hyper-parameters for Dirichlet processes prior are updated by Minka?s learning method [19]. The other NMF-type methods that use multiplicative updates were run with 10,000 iterations to guarantee convergence. For our method, we trained W by using Algorithm 1 for each candidate ? ? {0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.99} when n ? 8000. The best ? and the corresponding clustering result were then obtained by minimizing kA ? bW W T k2F with a suitable positive scalar b. Here we set b = 2? using the heuristic that the penalty term in gradient can be interpreted as 1 removal of diagonal effect of approximating matrix. When ? = 2r , we obtain b = 1/r. The new clustering method is not very sensitive to the choice of ? for large-scale datasets. We simply used ? = 0.8 in experiments when n > 8000. All methods except Ncut, 1Spec, and ICM were initialized by Normalized Cut. That is, their starting point was the Ncut cluster indicator matrix plus a small constant 0.2 to all entries. We have compared the above methods on clustering various datasets. The domains of the datasets range from network, text, biology, image, etc. All datasets are publicly available on the Internet. The data sources and statistics are given in the supplemental document. We constructed symmetrized K-NN graphs from the multivariate data, where K = 5 for the 30 smallest datasets, text datasets, PROTEIN and SEISMIC datasets, while K = 10 for the remaining datasets. Following [25], we extract the scattering features [18] for images before calculating the K-NN graph. We used Tf-Idf features for text data. The adjacency matrices of P network data were symmetrized. The clustering r performance is evaluated by cluster purity = n1 k=1 max1?l?r nlk , where nlk is the number of data samples in the cluster k that belong to ground-truth class l. A larger purity in general corresponds to a better clustering result. The resulting purities are shown in Table 1, where the rows are ordered by dataset size. We can see that our method has much better performance than the other methods. NMFR wins 36 out of 46 6 Table 1: Clustering purities for the compared methods on various datasets. Boldface numbers indicate the best in each row. Dataset Size Ncut PNMF NSC ONMF PLSI LSD 1Spec ICM DCD NMFR STRIKE KOREA AMLALL DUKE HIGHSCHOOL KHAN POLBOOKS FOOTBALL IRIS CANCER SPECT ROSETTA ECOLI IONOSPHERE ORL UMIST WDBC DIABETES VOWEL MED PIE YALEB TERROR ALPHADIGS COIL-20 YEAST SEMEION FAULTS SEG ADS CORA MIREX CITESEER WEBKB4 7SECTORS SPAM CURETGREY OPTDIGITS GISETTE REUTERS RCV1 PENDIGITS PROTEIN 20NEWS MNIST SEISMIC 24 35 38 44 60 83 105 115 150 198 267 300 327 351 400 575 683 768 1.0K 1.0K 1.2K 1.3K 1.3K 1.4K 1.4K 1.5K 1.6K 1.9K 2.3K 2.4K 2.7K 3.1K 3.3K 4.2K 4.6K 4.6K 5.6K 5.6K 7.0K 8.3K 9.6K 11K 18K 20K 70K 99K 0.96 1.00 0.92 0.52 0.83 0.57 0.78 0.93 0.90 0.53 0.79 0.77 0.79 0.69 0.81 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.36 0.53 0.67 0.45 0.45 0.49 0.79 0.53 0.83 0.40 0.61 0.84 0.38 0.41 0.24 0.40 0.25 0.61 0.26 0.92 0.90 0.77 0.33 0.80 0.46 0.25 0.77 0.52 1.00 0.94 0.92 0.52 0.82 0.60 0.78 0.93 0.93 0.54 0.79 0.77 0.78 0.69 0.82 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.35 0.54 0.66 0.42 0.45 0.45 0.71 0.53 0.87 0.39 0.51 0.84 0.37 0.40 0.31 0.39 0.27 0.61 0.22 0.90 0.52 0.74 0.35 0.82 0.46 0.33 0.87 0.50 0.96 0.71 0.92 0.52 0.83 0.55 0.81 0.93 0.90 0.53 0.79 0.77 0.79 0.70 0.82 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.36 0.54 0.68 0.46 0.46 0.49 0.79 0.54 0.83 0.40 0.61 0.84 0.37 0.42 0.23 0.40 0.25 0.61 0.26 0.92 0.93 0.76 0.32 0.80 0.46 0.21 0.79 0.51 1.00 1.00 0.92 0.52 0.82 0.60 0.77 0.93 0.92 0.53 0.79 0.77 0.78 0.69 0.82 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.30 0.54 0.66 0.41 0.46 0.44 0.65 0.52 0.85 0.39 0.53 0.84 0.37 0.38 0.31 0.39 0.25 0.61 0.21 0.90 0.51 0.72 0.31 0.77 0.46 0.31 0.73 0.50 0.96 1.00 0.92 0.70 0.83 0.55 0.78 0.93 0.91 0.54 0.79 0.77 0.80 0.69 0.83 0.69 0.65 0.65 0.36 0.54 0.68 0.51 0.46 0.49 0.79 0.53 0.85 0.40 0.61 0.84 0.44 0.41 0.36 0.49 0.29 0.65 0.26 0.93 0.93 0.76 0.37 0.80 0.46 0.31 0.79 0.52 1.00 1.00 0.92 0.70 0.82 0.52 0.78 0.93 0.75 0.53 0.79 0.77 0.68 0.64 0.81 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.34 0.55 0.69 0.50 0.45 0.49 0.75 0.52 0.89 0.40 0.64 0.84 0.46 0.38 0.36 0.51 0.26 0.68 0.21 0.92 0.93 0.75 0.48 0.86 0.46 0.32 0.76 0.54 1.00 0.71 0.92 0.52 0.82 0.58 0.83 0.90 0.91 0.51 0.79 0.77 0.83 0.69 0.80 0.74 0.65 0.65 0.20 0.50 0.64 0.37 0.44 0.48 0.77 0.54 0.82 0.38 0.55 0.84 0.36 0.12 0.22 0.39 0.25 0.61 0.22 0.87 0.93 0.63 0.31 0.82 0.46 0.07 0.88 0.51 0.58 0.66 0.50 0.52 0.82 0.49 0.78 0.93 0.53 0.53 0.79 0.77 0.78 0.69 0.19 0.15 0.65 0.65 0.15 0.33 0.12 0.10 0.34 0.10 0.11 0.34 0.13 0.38 0.32 0.84 0.30 0.27 0.41 0.48 0.28 0.61 0.11 0.90 0.62 0.71 0.38 0.52 0.46 0.23 0.95 0.50 0.96 0.97 0.92 0.52 0.83 0.55 0.79 0.93 0.91 0.54 0.79 0.77 0.80 0.69 0.83 0.69 0.65 0.65 0.36 0.55 0.68 0.51 0.45 0.50 0.79 0.52 0.85 0.41 0.61 0.84 0.44 0.18 0.35 0.51 0.28 0.67 0.27 0.92 0.93 0.76 0.36 0.80 0.46 0.31 0.82 0.52 0.96 1.00 0.89 0.70 0.95 0.51 0.79 0.93 0.91 0.52 0.79 0.77 0.79 0.68 0.83 0.72 0.65 0.65 0.37 0.56 0.74 0.51 0.49 0.51 0.81 0.55 0.94 0.39 0.73 0.84 0.47 0.43 0.44 0.63 0.34 0.69 0.28 0.98 0.94 0.77 0.54 0.87 0.50 0.63 0.97 0.59 selected clustering tasks. Our method is especially superior for large-scale data in a curved manifold, for example, OPTDIGITS and MNIST. Note that cluster purity can be regarded as classification accuracy if we have a few labeled data samples to remove ambiguity between clusters and classes. In this sense, the resulting purities for such manifold data are even comparable to the state-of-theart supervised classification results. Compared with the DCD results which require Level-2 family initialization (see [25]), NMFR only needs Level-1 simple initialization. In addition, NMFR also brings remarkable improvement for datasets beyond digit or letter recognition, for example, the text data RCV1, 20NEWS, protein data PROTEIN and sensor data SEISMIC. Furthermore, it is worth to notice that our method has more robust performance over various datasets compared with other approaches. Even for some small datasets where NMFR is not the winner, its cluster purities are still close to the best. 7 5 Conclusions We have presented a new NMF method using random walk for clustering. Our work includes two major contributions: (1) we have shown that NMF approximation using least square error should be applied on smoothed similarities; the smoothing accompanied with a novel regularization can often significantly outperform spectral clustering; (2) the smoothing is realized in an implicit and scalable way. Extensive empirical study has shown that our method can often improve clustering accuracy remarkably given simple initialization. Some issues could be included in the future work. Here we only discuss a certain type of smoothing by random walk, while the proposed method could be extended by using other types of smoothing, e.g. diffusion kernels, where scalable optimization could also be developed by using a similar iterative subroutine. Moreover, the smoothing brings improved clustering accuracy but at the cost of increased running time. Algorithms that are more efficient in both time and space should be further investigated. In addition, the approximated matrix could also be learnable. In current experiments, we used constant K-NN graphs as input for fair comparison, which could be replaced by a more comprehensive graph construction method (e.g. [28, 12, 17]). 6 Acknowledgement This work was financially supported by the Academy of Finland (Finnish Center of Excellence in Computational Inference Research COIN, grant no 251170; Zhirong Yang additionally by decision number 140398). Appendix: proof of Theorem 1 The proof follows the Majorization-Minimization development procedure in [26]. We use W and f to distinguish the current estimate and the variable, respectively. W Given a real-valued matrix B, we can always decompose it into two nonnegative parts such that + ? B = B + ? B ? , where Bij = (|Bij | + Bij )/2 and Bij = (|Bij | ? Bij )/2. In this way we f ?J ( W ) decompose ? = ?+ ? ?? and ? ? = ?+ ? ?? , where ?+ = 4?V W and f f ?W W =W ?? = 2AW . (Majorization) Up to some additive constant, f , ?) Je(W !     X X f4 X W f2  W ik f T AW + ? f T ?? W ? ? 2Tr W Wil2 + ?+ W ik ? 2Tr W 2 Wik Wik ik l ik !4 !     X X f 4 X Wik (?+ W ) fik W W ik f T AW + ? f T ?? W ? ? 2Tr W Wil2 + ? 2Tr W 2 Wik 2 Wik ik ik l f , W ), ?G(W where the first inequality is by standard convex-concave procedure, and the second upper bound is za ? 1 zb ? 1 due to the inequality ? for z > 0 and a < b. a b f , ?)/? W fik = 0 gives (Minimization) Setting ?G(W " new Wik = Wik ?? + 2W?+ ?+ + 2W??  #1/4 ik . (6) ik Zeroing ?L(W, ?)/?W gives 2W ? = ?+ ? ?? . Using W T W = I, we obtain ? = 21 W T (?+ ? ?? ), i.e. 2W ?+ = W W T ?+ and 2W ?? = W W T ?? . Inserting these into Eq. (6), we obtain update rule in Eq. (5). 8 References [1] http://users.ics.aalto.fi/rozyang/nmfr/index.shtml. [2] R. Arora, M. Gupta, A. Kapila, and M. Fazel. Clustering by left-stochastic matrix factorization. In ICML, 2011. [3] D. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan. Latent dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2001. [4] Deng Cai, Xiaofei He, Jiawei Han, and Thomas S. Huang. Graph regularized non-negative matrix factorization for data representation. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 33(8):1548?1560, 2011. [5] A. Cichocki, S. Cruces, and S. Amari. Generalized alpha-beta divergences and their application to robust nonnegative matrix factorization. Entropy, 13:134?170, 2011. [6] I. Dhillon, Y. Guan, and B. Kulis. Kernel k-means, spectral clustering and normalized cuts. In KDD, 2004. [7] C. Ding, X. He, and H. D. Simon. On the equivalence of nonnegative matrix factorization and spectral clustering. In ICDM, 2005. [8] C. Ding, T. Li, and M. I. Jordan. Nonnegative matrix factorization for combinatorial optimization: Spectral clustering, graph matching, and clique finding. In ICDM, 2008. [9] C. Ding, T. Li, and M. I. Jordan. Convex and semi-nonnegative matrix factorizations. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 32(1):45?55, 2010. [10] C. Ding, T. Li, and W. Peng. On the equivalence between non-negative matrix factorization and probabilistic laten semantic indexing. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52(8):3913?3927, 2008. [11] C. Ding, T. Li, W. Peng, and H. Park. Orthogonal nonnegative matrix t-factorizations for clustering. In SIGKDD, 2006. [12] E. Elhamifar and R. Vidal. Sparse manifold clustering and embedding. In NIPS, 2011. [13] Z. He, S. Xie, R. Zdunek, G. Zhou, and A. Cichocki. Symmetric nonnegative matrix factorization: Algorithms and applications to probabilistic clustering. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 22(12):2117? 2131, 2011. [14] M. Hein and T. B?uhler. An inverse power method for nonlinear eigenproblems with applications in 1Spectral clustering and sparse PCA. In NIPS, 2010. [15] D. D. Lee and H. S. Seung. Algorithms for non-negative matrix factorization. In NIPS, 2000. [16] C.-J. Lin. Projected gradient methods for non-negative matrix factorization. Neural Computation, 19:2756?2779, 2007. [17] M. Maier, U. von Luxburg, and M. Hein. How the result of graph clustering methods depends on the construction of the graph. ESAIM: Probability & Statistics, 2012. in press. [18] S. Mallat. Group invariant scattering. ArXiv e-prints, 2011. [19] T. Minka. Estimating a dirichlet distribution, 2000. [20] A. Ng, M. Jordan, and Y. Weiss. On spectral clustering: Analysis and an algorithm. In NIPS, 2001. [21] J. Shi and J. Malik. Normalized cuts and image segmentation. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 22(8):888?905, 2000. [22] J. Sinkkonen, J. Aukia, and S. Kaski. Component models for large networks. ArXiv e-prints, 2008. [23] Z. Yang and E. Oja. Linear and nonlinear projective nonnegative matrix factorization. IEEE Transaction on Neural Networks, 21(5):734?749, 2010. [24] Z. Yang and E. Oja. Unified development of multiplicative algorithms for linear and quadratic nonnegative matrix factorization. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 22(12):1878?1891, 2011. [25] Z. Yang and E. Oja. Clustering by low-rank doubly stochastic matrix decomposition. In ICML, 2012. [26] Z. Yang and E. Oja. Quadratic nonnegative matrix factorization. Pattern Recognition, 45(4):1500?1510, 2012. [27] R. Zass and A. Shashua. A unifying approach to hard and probabilistic clustering. In ICCV, 2005. [28] L. Zelnik-Manor and P. Perona. Self-tuning spectral clustering. In NIPS, 2004. [29] D. Zhou, O. Bousquet, T. Lal, J. Weston, and B. Sch?olkopf. Learning with local and global consistency. In NIPS, 2003. 9
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Isotropic Hashing Weihao Kong, Wu-Jun Li Shanghai Key Laboratory of Scalable Computing and Systems Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China {kongweihao,liwujun}@cs.sjtu.edu.cn Abstract Most existing hashing methods adopt some projection functions to project the original data into several dimensions of real values, and then each of these projected dimensions is quantized into one bit (zero or one) by thresholding. Typically, the variances of different projected dimensions are different for existing projection functions such as principal component analysis (PCA). Using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions is unreasonable because larger-variance dimensions will carry more information. Although this viewpoint has been widely accepted by many researchers, it is still not verified by either theory or experiment because no methods have been proposed to find a projection with equal variances for different dimensions. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called isotropic hashing (IsoHash), to learn projection functions which can produce projected dimensions with isotropic variances (equal variances). Experimental results on real data sets show that IsoHash can outperform its counterpart with different variances for different dimensions, which verifies the viewpoint that projections with isotropic variances will be better than those with anisotropic variances. 1 Introduction Due to its fast query speed and low storage cost, hashing [1, 5] has been successfully used for approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search [28]. The basic idea of hashing is to learn similaritypreserving binary codes for data representation. More specifically, each data point will be hashed into a compact binary string, and similar points in the original feature space should be hashed into close points in the hashcode space. Compared with the original feature representation, hashing has two advantages. One is the reduced storage cost, and the other is the constant or sub-linear query time complexity [28]. These two advantages make hashing become a promising choice for efficient ANN search in massive data sets [1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 15, 17, 20, 21, 23, 26, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34]. Most existing hashing methods adopt some projection functions to project the original data into several dimensions of real values, and then each of these projected dimensions is quantized into one bit (zero or one) by thresholding. Locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) [1, 5] and its extensions [4, 18, 19, 22, 25] use simple random projections for hash functions. These methods are called data-independent methods because the projection functions are independent of training data. Another class of methods are called data-dependent methods, whose projection functions are learned from training data. Representative data-dependent methods include spectral hashing (SH) [31], anchor graph hashing (AGH) [21], sequential projection learning (SPL) [29], principal component analysis [13] based hashing (PCAH) [7], and iterative quantization (ITQ) [7, 8]. SH learns the hashing functions based on spectral graph partitioning. AGH adopts anchor graphs to speed up the computation of graph Laplacian eigenvectors, based on which the Nystr?om method is used to compute projection functions. SPL leans the projection functions in a sequential way that each function is designed to correct the errors caused by the previous one. PCAH adopts principal component analysis (PCA) to learn the projection functions. ITQ tries to learn an orthogonal rotation matrix to refine the initial projection matrix learned by PCA so that the quantization error of mapping the data 1 to the vertices of binary hypercube is minimized. Compared to the data-dependent methods, the data-independent methods need longer codes to achieve satisfactory performance [7]. For most existing projection functions such as those mentioned above, the variances of different projected dimensions are different. Many researchers [7, 12, 21] have argued that using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions with unequal variances is unreasonable because larger-variance dimensions will carry more information. Some methods [7, 12] use orthogonal transformation to the PCA-projected data with the expectation of balancing the variances of different PCA dimensions, and achieve better performance than the original PCA based hashing. However, to the best of our knowledge, there exist no methods which can guarantee to learn a projection with equal variances for different dimensions. Hence, the viewpoint that using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions is unreasonable has still not been verified by either theory or experiment. In this paper, a novel hashing method, called isotropic hashing (IsoHash), is proposed to learn a projection function which can produce projected dimensions with isotropic variances (equal variances). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work which can learn projections with isotropic variances for hashing. Experimental results on real data sets show that IsoHash can outperform its counterpart with anisotropic variances for different dimensions, which verifies the intuitive viewpoint that projections with isotropic variances will be better than those with anisotropic variances. Furthermore, the performance of IsoHash is also comparable, if not superior, to the state-of-the-art methods. 2 2.1 Isotropic Hashing Problem Statement Assume we are given n data points {x1 , x2 , ? ? ? , xn } with xi ? Rd , which form the columns of the data matrix X ? Rd?n .PWithout loss of generality, in this paper the data are assumed to be n zero centered which means i=1 xi = 0. The basic idea of hashing is to map each point xi into m a binary string yi ? {0, 1} with m denoting the code size. Furthermore, close points in the original space Rd should be hashed into similar binary codes in the code space {0, 1}m to preserve the similarity structure in the original space. In general, we compute the binary code of xi as yi = [h1 (xi ), h2 (xi ), ? ? ? , hm (xi )]T with m binary hash functions {hk (?)}m k=1 . Because it is NP hard to directly compute the best binary functions hk (?) for a given data set [31], most hashing methods adopt a two-stage strategy to learn hk (?). In the projection stage, m realvalued projection functions {fk (x)}m k=1 are learned and each function can generate one real value. Hence, we have m projected dimensions each of which corresponds to one projection function. In the quantization stage, the real-values are quantized into a binary string by thresholding. Currently, most methods use one bit to quantize each projected dimension. More specifically, hk (xi ) = sgn(fk (xi )) where sgn(x) = 1 if x ? 0 and 0 otherwise. The exceptions of the quantization methods only contain AGH [21], DBQ [14] and MH [15], which use two bits to quantize each dimension. In sum, all of these methods adopt the same number (either one or two) of bits for different projected dimensions. However, the variances of different projected dimensions are unequal, and larger-variance dimensions typically carry more information. Hence, using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions with unequal variances is unreasonable, which has also been argued by many researchers [7, 12, 21]. Unfortunately, there exist no methods which can learn projection functions with equal variances for different dimensions. In the following content of this section, we present a novel model to learn projections with isotropic variances. 2.2 Model Formulation The idea of our IsoHash method is to learn an orthogonal matrix to rotate the PCA projection matrix. To generate a code of m bits, PCAH performs PCA on X, and then use the top m eigenvectors of the covariance matrix XX T as columns of the projection matrix W ? Rd?m . Here, top m eigenvectors are those corresponding to the m largest eigenvalues {?k }m k=1 , generally arranged with the non2 increasing order ?1 ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ?m . Hence, the projection functions of PCAH are defined as follows: fk (x) = wkT x, where wk is the kth column of W . Let ? = [?1 , ?2 , ? ? ? , ?m ]T and ? = diag(?), where diag(?) denotes the diagonal matrix whose diagonal entries are formed from the vector ?. It is easy to prove that W T XX T W = ?. Hence, the variance of the values {fk (xi )}ni=1 on the kth projected dimension, which corresponds to the kth row of W T X, is ?k . Obviously, the variances for different PCA dimensions are anisotropic. To get isotropic projection functions, the idea of our IsoHash method is to learn an orthogonal matrix Q ? Rm?m which makes QT W T XX T W Q become a matrix with equal diagonal values, i.e., [QT W T XX T W Q]11 = [QT W T XX T W Q]22 = ? ? ? = [QT W T XX T W Q]mm . Here, Aii denotes the ith diagonal entry of a square matrix A, and a matrix Q is said to be orthogonal if QT Q = I where I is an identity matrix whose dimensionality depends on the context. The effect of the orthogonal matrix Q is to rotate the coordinate axes while keeping the Euclidean distances between any two points unchanged. It is easy to prove that the new projection functions of IsoHash are fk (x) = (W Q)Tk x which have the same (isotropic) variance. Here (W Q)k denotes the kth column of W Q. If we use tr(A) to denote the trace of a symmetric matrix A, we have the following Lemma 1. Lemma 1. If QT Q = I, tr(QT AQ) = tr(A). Pm Based on Lemma 1, we have tr(QT W T XX T W Q) = tr(W T XX T W ) = tr(?) = i=1 ?i if QT Q = I. Hence, to make QT WPT XX T W Q become a matrix with equal diagonal values, we m ?i should set this diagonal value a = i=1 . m Let Pm a = [a1 , a2 , ? ? ? , am ] with ai = a = i=1 ?i m , (1) and T (z) = {T ? Rm?m |diag(T ) = diag(z)}, where z is a vector of length m, diag(T ) is overloaded to denote a diagonal matrix with the same diagonal entries of matrix T . Based on our motivation of IsoHash, we can define the problem of IsoHash as follows: Problem 1. The problem of IsoHash is to find an orthogonal matrix Q making QT W T XX T W Q ? T (a), where a is defined in (1). Then, we have the following Theorem 1: Theorem 1. Assume QT Q = I and T ? T (a). If QT ?Q = T , Q will be a solution to the problem of IsoHash. Proof. Because W T XX T W = ?, we have QT ?Q = QT [W T XX T W ]Q. It is obvious that Q will be a solution to the problem of IsoHash. As in [2], we define M(?) = {QT ?Q|Q ? O(m)}, (2) where O(m) is the set of all orthogonal matrices in Rm?m , i.e., QT Q = I. According to Theorem 1, the problem of IsoHash is equivalent to finding an orthogonal matrix Q for the following equation [2]: ||T ? Z||F = 0, (3) where T ? T (a), Z ? M(?), || ? ||F denotes the Frobenius norm. Please note that for ease of understanding, we use the same notations as those in [2]. In the following content, we will use the Schur-Horn lemma [11] to prove that we can always find a solution to problem (3). 3 Lemma 2. [Schur-Horn Lemma] Let c = {ci } ? Rm and b = {bi } ? Rm be real vectors in non-increasing order respectively 1 , i.e., c1 ? c2 ? ? ? ? ? cm , b1 ? b2 ? ? ? ? ? bm . There exists a Hermitian matrix H with eigenvalues c and diagonal values b if and only if k X i=1 m X i=1 bi ? bi = k X i=1 m X ci , for any k = 1, 2, ..., m, ci . i=1 Proof. Please refer to Horn?s article [11]. Base on Lemma 2, we have the following Theorem 2. Theorem 2. There exists a solution to the IsoHash problem in (3). And this solution is in the intersection of T (a) and M(?). Pm ? i=1 i Proof. Because ?1 ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ?m and a1 = a2 = ? ? ? = am = , it is easy to m Pk Pm Pk Pm P k i=1 ?i i=1 ?i i=1 ?i i=1 ?i prove that ? for any k. Hence, ? = k ? ? k ? = i k m k m Pk Pm Pi=1 m i=1 ai . Furthermore, we can prove that i=1 ?i = i=1 ai . According to Lemma 2, there exists a Hermitian matrix H with eigenvalues ? and diagonal values a. Moreover, we can prove that H is in the intersection of T (a) and M(?), i.e., H ? T (a) and H ? M(?). According to Theorem 2, to find a Q solving the problem in (3) is equivalent to finding the intersection point of T (a) and M(?), which is just an inverse eigenvalue problem called SHIEP in [2]. 2.3 Learning The problem in (3) can be reformulated as the following optimization problem: ||T ? Z||F . argmin (4) Q:T ?T (a),Z?M(?) As in [2], we propose two algorithms to learn Q: one is called lift and projection (LP), and the other is called gradient flow (GF). For ease of understanding, we use the same notations as those in [2], and some proofs of theorems are omitted. The readers can refer to [2] for the details. 2.3.1 Lift and Projection The main idea of lift and projection (LP) algorithm is to alternate between the following two steps: ? Lift step: Given a T (k) ? T (a), we find the point Z (k) ? M(?) such that ||T (k) ? Z (k) ||F = dist(T (k) , M(?)), where dist(T (k) , M(?)) denotes the minimum distance between T (k) and the points in M(?). ? Projection step: Given a Z (k) , we find T (k+1) ? T (a) such that ||T (k+1) ? Z (k) ||F = dist(T (a), Z (k) ), where dist(T (a), Z (k) ) denotes the minimum distance between Z (k) and the points in T (a). 1 Please note in [2], the values are in increasing order. It is easy to prove that our presentation of Schur-Horn lemma is equivalent to that in [2]. The non-increasing order is chosen here just because it will facilitate our following presentation due to the non-increasing order of the eigenvalues in ?. 4 We call Z (k) a lift of T (k) onto M(?) and T (k+1) a projection of Z (k) onto T (a). The projection operation is easy to complete. Suppose Z (k) = [zij ], then T (k+1) = [tij ] must be given by  zij , if i 6= j tij = (5) ai , if i = j For the lift operation, we have the following Theorem 3. Theorem 3. Suppose T = QT DQ is an eigen-decomposition of T where D = diag(d) with d = [d1 , d2 , ..., dm ]T being T ?s eigenvalues which are ordered as d1 ? d2 ? ? ? ? ? dm . Then the nearest neighbor of T in M(?) is given by Z = QT ?Q. (6) Proof. See Theorem 4.1 in [3]. Since in each step we minimize the distance between T and Z, we have ||T (k) ? Z (k) ||F ? ||T (k+1) ? Z (k) ||F ? ||T (k+1) ? Z (k+1) ||F . It is easy to see that (T (k) , Z (k) ) will converge to a stationary point. The whole IsoHash algorithm based on LP, abbreviated as IsoHash-LP, is briefly summarized in Algorithm 1. Algorithm 1 Lift and projection based IsoHash (IsoHash-LP) Input: X ? Rd?n , m ? N+ , t ? N+ ? [?, W ] = P CA(X, m), as stated in Section 2.2. ? Generate a random orthogonal matrix Q0 ? Rm?m . ? Z (0) ? QT0 ?Q0 . ? for k = 1 ? t do Calculate T (k) from Z (k?1) by equation (5). Perform eigen-decomposition of T (k) to get QTk DQk = T (k) . Calculate Z (k) from Qk and ? by equation (6). ? end for ? Y = sgn(QTt W T X). Output: Y Because M(?) is not a convex set, the stationary point we find is not necessarily inside the intersection of T (a) and M(?). For example, if we set Z (0) = ?, the lift and projection learning algorithm would get no progress because the Z and T are already in a stationary point. To solve this problem of degenerate solutions, we initiate Z as a transformed ? with some random orthogonal matrix Q0 , which is illustrated in Algorithm 1. 2.3.2 Gradient Flow Another learning algorithm is a continuous one based on the construction of a gradient flow (GF) on the surface M(?) that moves towards the desired intersection point. Because there always exists a solution for the problem in (3) according to Theorem 2, the objective function in (4) can be reformulated as follows [2]: min F (Q) = Q?O(m) 1 ||diag(QT ?Q) ? diag(a)||2F . 2 (7) The details about how to optimize (7) can be found in [2]. We just show some key steps of the learning algorithm in the following content. The gradient ?F at Q can be calculated as ?F (Q) = 2??(Q), T (8) where ?(Q) = diag(Q ?Q) ? diag(a). Once we have computed the gradient of F , it can be projected onto the manifold O(m) according to the following Theorem 4. 5 Theorem 4. The projection of ?F (Q) onto O(m) is given by g(Q) = Q[QT ?Q, ?(Q)] (9) where [A, B] = AB ? BA is the Lie bracket. Proof. See the formulas (20), (21) and (22) in [3]. The vector field Q? = ?g(Q) defines a steepest descent flow on the manifold O(m) for function F (Q). Letting Z = QT ?Q and ?(Z) = ?(Q), we get Z? = [Z, [?(Z), Z]], (10) where Z? is an isospectral flow that moves to reduce the objective function F (Q). As stated by Theorems 3.3 and 3.4 in [2], a stable equilibrium point of (10) must be combined with ?(Q) = 0, which means that F (Q) has decreased to zero. Hence, the gradient flow method can always find an intersection point as the solution. The whole IsoHash algorithm based on GF, abbreviated as IsoHash-GF, is briefly summarized in Algorithm 2. Algorithm 2 Gradient flow based IsoHash (IsoHash-GF) Input: X ? Rd?n , m ? N+ ? [?, W ] = P CA(X, m), as stated in Section 2.2. ? Generate a random orthogonal matrix Q0 ? Rm?m . ? Z (0) ? QT0 ?Q0 . ? Start integration from Z = Z (0) with gradient computed from equation (10). ? Stop integration when reaching a stable equilibrium point. ? Perform eigen-decomposition of Z to get QT ?Q = Z. ? Y = sgn(QT W T X). Output: Y We now discuss some implementation details of IsoHash-GF. Since all diagonal matrices in M(?) result in Z? = 0, one should not use ? as the starting point. In our implementation, we use the same method as that in IsoHash-LP to avoid this degenerate case, i.e., a random orthogonal transformation matrix Q0 is use to rotate ?. To integrate Z with gradient in (10), we use Adams-Bashforth-Moulton PECE solver in [27] where the parameter RelTol is set to 10?3 . The relative error of the algorithm is computed by comparing the diagonal entries of Z to the target diag(a). The whole integration process will be terminated when their relative error is below 10?7 . 2.4 Complexity Analysis The learning of our IsoHash method contains two phases: the first phase is PCA and the second phase is LP or GF. The time complexity of PCA is O(min(n2 d, nd2 )). The time complexity of LP after PCA is O(m3 t), and that of GF after PCA is O(m3 ). In our experiments, t is set to 100 because good performance can be achieved at this setting. Because m is typically set to be a very small number like 64 or 128, the main time complexity of IsoHash is from the PCA phase. In general, the training of IsoHash-GF will be faster than IsoHash-LP in our experiments. One promising property of both LP and GF is that the time complexity after PCA is independent of the number of training data, which makes them scalable to large-scale data sets. 3 Relation to Existing Works The most related method of IsoHash is ITQ [7], because both ITQ and IsoHash have to learn an orthogonal matrix. However, IsoHash is different from ITQ in many aspects: firstly, the goal of IsoHash is to learn a projection with isotropic variances, but the results of ITQ cannot necessarily guarantee isotropic variances; secondly, IsoHash directly learns the orthogonal matrix from the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of PCA, but ITQ first quantizes the PCA results to get some binary 6 codes, and then learns the orthogonal matrix based on the resulting binary codes; thirdly, IsoHash has an explicit objective function to optimize, but ITQ uses a two-step heuristic strategy whose goal cannot be formulated by a single objective function; fourthly, to learn the orthogonal matrix, IsoHash uses Lift and Projection or Gradient Flow, but ITQ uses Procruster method which is much slower than IsoHash. From the experimental results which will be presented in the next section, we can find that IsoHash can achieve accuracy comparable to ITQ with much faster training speed. 4 4.1 Experiment Data Sets We evaluate our methods on two widely used data sets, CIFAR [16] and LabelMe [28]. The first data set is CIFAR-10 [16] which consists of 60,000 images. These images are manually labeled into 10 classes, which are airplane, automobile, bird, cat, deer, dog, frog, horse, ship, and truck. The size of each image is 32?32 pixels. We represent them with 256-dimensional gray-scale GIST descriptors [24]. The second data set is 22K LabelMe used in [23, 28] which contains 22,019 images sampled from the large LabelMe data set. As in [28], The images are scaled to 32?32 pixels, and then represented by 512-dimensional GIST descriptors [24]. 4.2 Evaluation Protocols and Baselines As the protocols widely used in recent papers [7, 23, 25, 31], Euclidean neighbors in the original space are considered as ground truth. More specifically, a threshold of the average distance to the 50th nearest neighbor is used to define whether a point is a true positive or not. Based on the Euclidean ground truth, we compute the precision-recall curve and mean average precision (mAP) [7, 21]. For all experiments, we randomly select 1000 points as queries, and leave the rest as training set to learn the hash functions. All the experimental results are averaged over 10 random training/test partitions. Although a lot of hashing methods have been proposed, some of them are either supervised [23] or semi-supervised [29]. Our IsoHash method is essentially an unsupervised one. Hence, for fair comparison, we select the most representative unsupervised methods for evaluation, which contain PCAH [7], ITQ [7], SH [31], LSH [1], and SIKH [25]. Among these methods, PCAH, ITQ and SH are data-dependent methods, while SIKH and LSH are data-independent methods. All experiments are conducted on our workstation with Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU [email protected] and 64G memory. 4.3 Accuracy Table 1 shows the Hamming ranking performance measured by mAP on LabelMe and CIFAR. It is clear that our IsoHash methods, including both IsoHash-GF and IsoHash-LP, achieve far better performance than PCAH. The main difference between IsoHash and PCAH is that the PCAH dimensions have anisotropic variances while IsoHash dimensions have isotropic variances. Hence, the intuitive viewpoint that using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions with anisotropic variances is unreasonable has been successfully verified by our experiments. Furthermore, the performance of IsoHash is also comparable, if not superior, to the state-of-the-art methods, such as ITQ. Figure 1 illustrates the precision-recall curves on LabelMe data set with different code sizes. The relative performance in the precision-recall curves on CIFAR is similar to that on LabelMe. We omit the results on CIFAR due to space limitation. Once again, we can find that our IsoHash methods can achieve performance which is far better than PCAH and comparable to the state-of-the-art. 4.4 Computational Cost Table 2 shows the training time on CIFAR. We can see that our IsoHash methods are much faster than ITQ. The time complexity of ITQ also contains two parts: the first part is PCA which is the same 7 Table 1: mAP on LabelMe and CIFAR data sets. 32 0.2580 0.2534 0.0516 0.2786 0.0826 0.0590 0.1549 64 0.3269 0.3223 0.0401 0.3328 0.1034 0.1482 0.2574 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0 Recall 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 IsoHash?GF IsoHash?LP ITQ SH SIKH LSH PCAH 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 Recall (b) 64 bits 256 0.3600 0.3651 0.0168 0.3436 0.1535 0.3614 0.3432 0.8 0.4 0 0 1 128 0.3357 0.3223 0.0216 0.3319 0.1121 0.1909 0.2776 1 IsoHash?GF IsoHash?LP ITQ SH SIKH LSH PCAH 0.2 Recall (a) 32 bits CIFAR 96 0.3256 0.3027 0.0241 0.3238 0.0802 0.1245 0.2396 64 0.2969 0.2624 0.0274 0.3051 0.0589 0.0902 0.1907 0.8 0.2 0.2 32 0.2249 0.1907 0.0319 0.2490 0.0510 0.0353 0.1052 1 IsoHash?GF IsoHash?LP ITQ SH SIKH LSH PCAH 0.8 Precision Precision 256 0.3889 0.4274 0.0232 0.3728 0.2080 0.4488 0.4034 1 IsoHash?GF IsoHash?LP ITQ SH SIKH LSH PCAH 0.8 0 0 128 0.3662 0.3826 0.0307 0.3615 0.1653 0.2526 0.3375 Precision 1 LabelMe 96 0.3528 0.3577 0.0341 0.3504 0.1447 0.2074 0.3147 Precision Method # bits IsoHash-GF IsoHash-LP PCAH ITQ SH SIKH LSH 0.6 0.8 1 Recall (c) 96 bits (d) 256 bits Figure 1: Precision-recall curves on LabelMe data set. as that in IsoHash, and the second part is an iteration algorithm to rotate the original PCA matrix with time complexity O(nm2 ), where n is the number of training points and m is the number of bits in the binary code. Hence, as the number of training data increases, the second-part time complexity of ITQ will increase linearly to the number of training points. But the time complexity of IsoHash after PCA is independent of the number of training points. Hence, IsoHash will be much faster than ITQ, particularly in the case with a large number of training points. This is clearly shown in Figure 2 which illustrates the training time when the numbers of training data are changed. 50 Table 2: Training time (in second) on CIFAR. # bits IsoHash-GF IsoHash-LP PCAH ITQ SH SIKH LSH 32 2.48 2.14 1.84 4.35 1.60 1.30 0.05 64 2.45 2.43 2.14 6.33 3.41 1.44 0.08 96 2.70 2.94 2.23 9.73 8.37 1.57 0.11 128 3.00 3.47 2.36 12.40 13.66 1.55 0.19 256 5.55 8.83 2.92 29.25 49.44 2.20 0.31 Training Time(s) 40 30 IsoHash?GF IsoHash?LP ITQ SH SIKH LSH PCAH 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 Number of training data 5 6 4 x 10 Figure 2: Training time on CIFAR . 5 Conclusion Although many researchers have intuitively argued that using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions with anisotropic variances is unreasonable, this viewpoint has still not been verified by either theory or experiment because no methods have been proposed to find projection functions with isotropic variances for different dimensions. The proposed IsoHash method in this paper is the first work to learn projection functions which can produce projected dimensions with isotropic variances (equal variances). Experimental results on real data sets have successfully verified the viewpoint that projections with isotropic variances will be better than those with anisotropic variances. Furthermore, IsoHash can achieve accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art methods with faster training speed. 6 Acknowledgments This work is supported by the NSFC (No. 61100125), the 863 Program of China (No. 2011AA01A202, No. 2012AA011003), and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of China (IRT1158, PCSIRT). 8 References [1] A. Andoni and P. Indyk. Near-optimal hashing algorithms for approximate nearest neighbor in high dimensions. Commun. ACM, 51(1):117?122, 2008. [2] M.T. Chu. Constructing a Hermitian matrix from its diagonal entries and eigenvalues. 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Super-Bit Locality-Sensitive Hashing Jianqiu Ji? , Jianmin Li? , Shuicheng Yan? , Bo Zhang? , Qi Tian? ? State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Technology and Systems, Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology (TNList), Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China [email protected], {lijianmin, dcszb}@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn ? Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 117576 [email protected] ? Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at San Antonio, One UTSA Circle, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249-1644 [email protected] Abstract Sign-random-projection locality-sensitive hashing (SRP-LSH) is a probabilistic dimension reduction method which provides an unbiased estimate of angular similarity, yet suffers from the large variance of its estimation. In this work, we propose the Super-Bit locality-sensitive hashing (SBLSH). It is easy to implement, which orthogonalizes the random projection vectors in batches, and it is theoretically guaranteed that SBLSH also provides an unbiased estimate of angular similarity, yet with a smaller variance when the angle to estimate is within (0, ?/2]. The extensive experiments on real data well validate that given the same length of binary code, SBLSH may achieve significant mean squared error reduction in estimating pairwise angular similarity. Moreover, SBLSH shows the superiority over SRP-LSH in approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) retrieval experiments. 1 Introduction Locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) method aims to hash similar data samples to the same hash code with high probability [7, 9]. There exist various kinds of LSH for approximating different distances or similarities, e.g., bit-sampling LSH [9, 7] for Hamming distance and `1 -distance, min-hash [2, 5] for Jaccard coefficient. Among them are some binary LSH schemes, which generate binary codes. Binary LSH approximates a certain distance or similarity of two data samples by computing the Hamming distance between the corresponding compact binary codes. Since computing Hamming distance involves mainly bitwise operations, it is much faster than directly computing other distances, e.g. Euclidean, cosine, which require many arithmetic operations. On the other hand, the storage is substantially reduced due to the use of compact binary codes. In large-scale applications [22, 11, 5, 17], e.g. near-duplicate image detection, object and scene recognition, etc., we are often confronted with the intensive computing of distances or similarities between samples, then binary LSH may act as a scalable solution. 1.1 Locality-Sensitive Hashing for Angular Similarity For many data representations, the natural pairwise similarity is only related with the angle between the data, e.g., the normalized bag-of-words representation for documents, images, and videos, and the normalized histogram-based local features like SIFT [20]. In these cases, angular similarity 1 ha,bi can serve as a similarity measurement, which is defined as sim(a, b) = 1 cos 1 ( kakkbk )/?. Here ha, bi denotes the inner product of a and b, and k ? k denotes the `2 -norm of a vector. One popular LSH for approximating angular similarity is the sign-random-projection LSH (SRPLSH) [3], which provides an unbiased estimate of angular similarity and is a binary LSH method. Formally, in a d-dimensional data space, let v denote a random vector sampled from the normal distribution N (0, Id ), and x denote a data sample, then an SRP-LSH function is defined as hv (x) = sgn(v T x), where the sign function sgn(?) is defined as ? 1, z 0 sgn(z) = 0, z < 0 Given two data samples a, b, let ?a,b = cos 1 ha,bi ( kakkbk ), then it can be proven that [8] P r(hv (a) 6= hv (b)) = ?a,b ? This property well explains the essence of locality-sensitive, and also reveals the relation between Hamming distance and angular similarity. By independently sampling K d-dimensional vectors v1 , ..., vK from the normal distribution N (0, Id ), we may define a function h(x) = (hv1 (x), hv2 (x), ..., hvK (x)), which consists of K SRP-LSH functions and thus produces K-bit codes. Then it is easy to prove that E[dHamming (h(a), h(b))] = K?a,b ? = C?a,b That is, the expectation of the Hamming distance between the binary hash codes of two given data samples a and b is an unbiased estimate of their angle ?a,b , up to a constant scale factor C = K/?. Thus SRP-LSH provides an unbiased estimate of angular similarity. Since dHamming (h(a), h(b)) follows a binomial distribution, i.e. dHamming (h(a), h(b)) ? ? K?a,b ?a,b B(K, a,b its variance is This implies that the variance of ? ), ? (1 ? ). dHamming (h(a), h(b))/K, i.e. V ar[dHamming (h(a), h(b))/K], satisfies V ar[dHamming (h(a), h(b))/K] = ?a,b K? (1 ?a,b ? ) Though being widely used, SRP-LSH suffers from the large variance of its estimation, which leads to large estimation error. Generally we need a substantially long code to accurately approximate the angular similarity [24, 12, 23]. Since any two of the random vectors may be close to being linearly dependent, the resulting binary code may be less informative as it seems, and even contains many redundant bits. An intuitive idea would be to orthogonalize the random vectors. However, once being orthogonalized, the random vectors can no longer be viewed as independently sampled. Moreover, it remains unclear whether the resulting Hamming distance is still an unbiased estimate of the angle ?a,b multiplied by a constant, and what its variance will be. Later we will give answers with theoretical justifications to these two questions. In the next section, based on the above intuitive idea, we propose the so-called Super-Bit localitysensitive hashing (SBLSH) method. We provide theoretical guarantees that after orthogonalizing the random projection vectors in batches, we still get an unbiased estimate of angular similarity, yet with a smaller variance when ?a,b 2 (0, ?/2], and thus the resulting binary code is more informative. Experiments on real data show the effectiveness of SBLSH, which with the same length of binary code may achieve as much as 30% mean squared error (MSE) reduction compared with the SRP-LSH in estimating angular similarity on real data. Moreover, SBLSH performs best among several widely used data-independent LSH methods in approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) retrieval experiments. 2 Super-Bit Locality-Sensitive Hashing The proposed SBLSH is founded on SRP-LSH. When the code length K satisfies 1 < K ? d, where d is the dimension of data space, we can orthogonalize N (1 ? N ? min(K, d) = K) of the random vectors sampled from the normal distribution N (0, Id ). The orthogonalization procedure 2 is the Gram-Schmidt process, which projects the current vector orthogonally onto the orthogonal complement of the subspace spanned by the previous vectors. After orthogonalization, these N random vectors can no longer be viewed as independently sampled, thus we group their resulting bits together as an N -Super-Bit. We call N the Super-Bit depth. However, when the code length K > d, it is impossible to orthogonalize all K vectors. Assume that K = N ? L without loss of generality, and 1 ? N ? d, then we can perform the GramSchmidt process to orthogonalize them in L batches. Formally, K random vectors {v1 , v2 ..., vK } are independently sampled from the normal distribution N (0, Id ), and then divided into L batches with N vectors each. By performing the Gram-Schmidt process to these L batches of N vectors respectively, we get K = N ? L projection vectors {w1 , w2 ..., wK }. This results in K SBLSH functions (hw1 , hw2 ..., hwK ), where hwi (x) = sgn(wiT x). These K functions produce L N -SuperBits and altogether produce binary codes of length K. Figure 1 shows an example of generating 12 SBLSH projection vectors. Algorithm 1 lists the algorithm for generating SBLSH projection vectors. Note that when the Super-Bit depth N = 1, SBLSH becomes SRP-LSH. In other words, SRP-LSH is a special case of SBLSH. The algorithm can be easily extended to the case when the code length K is not a multiple of the Super-Bit depth N . In fact one can even use variable Super-Bit depth Ni as long as 1 ? Ni ? d. With the same code length, SBLSH has the same running time O(Kd) as SRP-LSH in on-line processing, i.e. generating binary codes when applying to data. w1 v1 v2 v12 v4 v11 v5 v7 v8 v v9 v6 v 10 3 w3 w 4 w2 Orthogonalize in 4 batches w9 Random projection vectors sampled from N(0, I) v2,1 w6 w7 w12 w8 w5 w11 w10 Resulting SBLSH projection vectors Figure 1: An illustration of 12 SBLSH projection vectors {wi } generated by orthogonalizing {vi } in 4 batches. Algorithm 1 Generating Super-Bit Locality-Sensitive Hashing Projection Vectors Input: Data space dimension d, Super-Bit depth 1 ? N ? d, number of Super-Bit L resulting code length K = N ? L. 1, Generate a random matrix H with each element sampled independently from the normal distribution N (0, 1), with each column normalized to unit length. Denote H = [v1 , v2 , ..., vK ]. for i = 0 to L 1 do for j = 1 to N do wiN +j = viN +j . for k = 1 to j 1 do T wiN +j = wiN +j wiN +k wiN +k viN +j . end for wiN +j = wiN +j /kwiN +j k. end for end for ? = [w1 , w2 , ..., wK ]. Output: H 2.1 Unbiased Estimate In this subsection we prove that SBLSH provides an unbiased estimate of ?a,b of a, b 2 Rd . Lemma 1. ([8], Lemma 3.2) Let S d 1 denote the unit sphere in Rd . Given a random vector v uniformly sampled from S d 1 , we have P r[hv (a) 6= hv (b)] = ?a,b /?. Lemma 2. If v 2 Rd follows an isotropic distribution, then v? = v/kvk is uniformly distributed on S d 1. This lemma can be proven by the definition of isotropic distribution, and we omit the details here. 3 Lemma 3. Given k vectors v1 , ..., vk 2 Rd , which are sampled i.i.d. from the normal distribution N (0, Id ), and span a subspace Sk , let PSk denote the orthogonal projection onto Sk , then PSk is a random matrix uniformly distributed on the Grassmann manifold Gk,d k . This lemma can be proven by applying the Theorem 2.2.1(iii), Theorem 2.2.2(iii) in [4]. Lemma 4. If P is a random matrix uniformly distributed on the Grassmann manifold Gk,d k , 1 ? k ? d, and v ? N (0, Id ) is independent of P , then the random vector v? = P v follows an isotropic distribution. From the uniformity of P on the Grassmann manifold and the property of the normal distribution N (0, Id ), we can get this result directly. We give a sketch of proof below. Proof. We can write P = U U T , where the columns of U = [u1 , u2 , ..., uk ] constitute an orthonormal basis of a random k-dimensional subspace. Since the standard normal distribution is 2-stable [6], v? = U T v = [v?1 , v?2 , ..., v?k ]T is a N (0, Ik )-distributed vector, where each v?i ? N (0, 1), and it is easy to verify that v? is independent of U . Therefore v? = P v = U v? = ?ki=1 v?i ui . Since ui , ..., uk can be any orthonormal basis of any k-dimensional subspace with equal probability density, and {v?1 , v?2 , ..., v?k } are i.i.d. N (0, 1) random variables, v? follows an isotropic distribution. Theorem 1. Given N i.i.d. random vectors v1 , v2 , ..., vN 2 Rd sampled from the normal distribution N (0, Id ), where 1 ? N ? d, perform the Gram-Schmidt process on them and produce N orthogonalized vectors w1 , w2 , . . . , wN , then for any two data vectors a, b 2 Rd , by defining N indicator random variables X1 , X2 , ..., XN as ? 1, hwi (a) 6= hwi (b) Xi = 0, hwi (a) = hwi (b) we have E[Xi ] = ?a,b /?, for any 1 ? i ? N . Proof. Denote Si 1 the subspace spanned by {w1 , ..., wi 1 }, and the orthogonal projection onto its orthogonal complement as PS?i 1 . Then wi = PS?i 1 vi . Denote w ? = wi /kwi k. For any 1 ? i ? N , E[Xi ] = P r[Xi = 1] = P r[hwi (a) 6= hwi (b)] = P r[hw? (a) 6= hw? (b)]. For i = 1, by Lemma 2 and Lemma 1, we have P r[X1 = 1] = ?a,b /?. For any 1 < i ? N , consider the distribution of wi . By lemma 3, PSi 1 is a random matrix uniformly distributed on the Grassmann manifold Gi 1,d i+1 , thus PS?i 1 = I PSi 1 is uniformly distributed on Gd i+1,i 1 . Since vi ? N (0, Id ) is independent of v1 , v2 , ..., vi 1 , vi is independent of PS?i 1 . By Lemma 4, we have that wi = PS?i 1 vi follows an isotropic distribution. By Lemma 2, w ? = wi /kwi k is uniformly distributed on the unit sphere in Rd . By Lemma 1, P r[hw? (a) 6= hw? (b)] = ?a,b /?. Corollary 1. For any Super-Bit depth N , 1 ? N ? d, assuming that the code length K = N ? L, the Hamming distance dHamming (h(a), h(b)) is an unbiased estimate of ?a,b , for any two data vectors a and b 2 Rd , up to a constant scale factor C = K/?. Proof. Apply Theorem 1 and we get E[dHamming (h(a), h(b))] = L ? E[?N i=1 Xi ] = L ? K?a,b N N ?i=1 E[Xi ] = L ? ?i=1 ?a,b /? = ? = C?a,b . 2.2 Variance In this subsection we prove that when the angle ?a,b 2 (0, ?/2], the variance of SBLSH is strictly smaller than that of SRP-LSH. Lemma 5. For the random variables {Xi } defined in Theorem 1, we have the following equality P r[Xi = 1|Xj = 1] = P r[Xi = 1|X1 = 1], 1 ? j < i ? N ? d. Proof. P r[Xi = 1|Xj = 1] = P r[hwi (a) 6= hwi (b)|Xj = 1] = P r[hvi ?i 1 wk wT vi (a) 6= k=1 k hvi ?i 1 wk wT vi (b)|hwj (a) 6= hwj (b)]. Since {w1 , ...wi 1 } is a uniformly random orthonormal k=1 k 4 basis of a random subspace uniformly distributed on Grassmann manifold, by exchanging the index j and 1 we have that equals P r[hvi ?i 1 wk wT vi (a) 6= hvi ?i 1 wk wT vi (b)|hw1 (a) 6= hw1 (b)] = k=1 k k=1 k P r[Xi = 1|X1 = 1]. Lemma 6. For {Xi } defined in Theorem 1, we have P r[Xi = 1|Xj = 1] = P r[X2 = 1|X1 = 1], ? 1 ? j < i ? N ? d. Given ?a,b 2 (0, ?2 ], we have P r[X2 = 1|X1 = 1] < a,b ? . The proof of this lemma is long, thus we provide it in the Appendix (in supplementary file). Theorem 2. Given two vectors a, b 2 Rd and random variables {Xi } defined as in Theorem 1, denote p2,1 = P r[X2 = 1|X1 = 1], and SX = ?N i=1 Xi which is the Hamming distance between N? p ? N? the N -Super-Bits of a and b, for 1 < N ? d, then V ar[SX ] = ?a,b +N (N 1) 2,1? a,b ( ?a,b )2 . Proof. By Lemma 6, P r[Xi = 1|Xj = 1] = P r[X2 = 1|X1 = 1] = p2,1 when 1 ? j < i ? N . p ? Therefore P r[Xi = 1, Xj = 1] = P r[Xi = 1|Xj = 1]P r[Xj = 1] = 2,1? a,b , for any 1 ? j < 2 2 i ? N . Therefore V ar[SX ] = E[SX ] E[SX ]2 = ?N N 2 E[X1 ]2 = i=1 E[Xi ] + 2?j<i E[Xi Xj ] N ?a,b N ?a,b 2 N ?a,b p2,1 ?a,b N ?a,b 2 + 2?j<i P r[Xi = 1, Xj = 1] ( ? ) = ? + N (N 1) ? ( ? ) . ? Corollary 2. Denote V ar[SBLSHN,K ] as the variance of the Hamming distance produced by SBLSH, where 1 ? N ? d is the Super-Bit depth, and K = N ? L is the code length. Then V ar[SBLSHN,K ] = L?V ar[SBLSHN,N ]. Furthermore, given ?a,b 2 (0, ?2 ], if K = N1 ?L1 = N2 ? L2 and 1 ? N2 < N1 ? d, then V ar[SBLSHN1 ,K ] < V ar[SBLSHN2 ,K ]. Proof. Since v1 , v2 , ..., vK are independently sampled, and w1 , w2 , ..., wK are produced by orthogonalizing every N vectors, the Hamming distances produced by different N -Super-Bits are independent, thus V ar[SBLSHN,K ] = L ? V ar[SBLSHN,N ]. N ? p ? N ? K? Therefore V ar[SBLSHN1 ,K ] = L1 ?( 1?a,b +N1 (N1 1) 2,1? a,b ( 1?a,b )2 ) = ?a,b +K(N1 p ? ? ?a,b ? 2 1) 2,1? a,b KN1 ( a,b ? ) . By Lemma 6, when ?a,b 2 (0, 2 ], for N1 > N2 > 1, 0 ? p2,1 < ? . K?a,b ?a,b Therefore V ar[SBLSHN1 ,K ] V ar[SBLSHN2 ,K ] = ? (N1 N2 )(p2,1 ? ) < 0. For K?a,b ?a,b N1 > N2 = 1, V ar[SBLSHN1 ,K ] V ar[SBLSHN2 ,K ] = ? (N1 1)(p2,1 ? )<0 Corollary 3. Denote V ar[SRP LSHK ] as the variance of the Hamming distance produced by SRPLSH, where K = N ? L is the code length and L is a positive integer, 1 < N ? d. If ?a,b 2 (0, ?2 ], then V ar[SRP LSHK ] > V ar[SBLSHN,K ]. Proof. By Corollary 2, V ar[SRP LSHK ] = V ar[SBLSH1,K ] > V ar[SBLSHN,K ]. 2.2.1 Numerical verification /2 Figure 2: The variances of SRP-LSH and SBLSH against the angle ?a,b to estimate. In this subsection we verify numerically the behavior of the variances of both SRP-LSH and SBLSH for different angles ?a,b 2 (0, ?]. By Theorem 2, the variance of SBLSH is closely related to p2,1 defined in Theorem 2. We randomly generate 30 points in R10 , which involves 435 angles. For each angle, we numerically approximate p2,1 using sampling method, where the sample number is 1000. We fix K = N = d, and plot the variances V ar[SRP LSHN ] and V ar[SBLSHN,N ] against various angles ?a,b . Figure 2 shows that when ?a,b 2 (0, ?/2], SBLSH has a much smaller variance than SRP-LSH, which verifies the correctness of Corollary 3 to some extent. Furthermore, Figure 2 shows that even when ?a,b 2 (?/2, ?], SBLSH still has a smaller variance. 5 2.3 Discussion From Corollary 1, SBLSH provides an unbiased estimate of angular similarity. From Corollary 3, when ?a,b 2 (0, ?/2], with the same length of binary code, the variance of SBLSH is strictly smaller than SRP-LSH. In real applications, many vector representations are limited in non-negative orthant with all vector entries being non-negative, e.g., bag-of-words representation of documents and images, and histogram-based representations like SIFT local descriptor [20]. Usually they are normalized to unit length, with only their orientations maintained. For this kind of data, the angle of any two different samples is limited in (0, ?/2], and thus SBLSH will provide more accurate estimation than SRP-LSH on such data. In fact, our later experiments show that even when ?a,b is not constrained in (0, ?/2], SBLSH still gives much more accurate estimate of angular similarity. 3 Experimental Results We conduct two sets of experiments, angular similarity estimation and approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) retrieval, to evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed SBLSH method. In the first set of experiments we directly measure the accuracy in estimating pairwise angular similarity. The second set of experiments then test the performance of SBLSH in real retrieval applications. 3.1 Angular Similarity Estimation In this experiment, we evaluate the accuracy of estimating pairwise angular similarity on several datasets. Specifically, we test the effect to the estimation accuracy when the Super-Bit depth N varies and the code length K is fixed, and vice versa. For each preprocessed data D, we get DLSH after performing SRP-LSH, and get DSBLSH after performing the proposed SBLSH. We compute the angles between each pair of samples in D, the corresponding Hamming distances in DLSH and DSBLSH . We compute the mean squared error between the true angle and the approximated angles from DLSH and DSBLSH respectively. Note that after computing the Hamming distance, we divide the result by C = K/? and get the approximated angle. 3.1.1 Datasets and Preprocessing We conduct the experiment on the following datasets: 1) Photo Tourism patch dataset1 [26], Notre Dame, which contains 104,106 patches, each of which is represented by a 128D SIFT descriptor (Photo Tourism SIFT); and 2) MIR-Flickr2 , which contains 25,000 images, each of which is represented by a 3125D bag-of-SIFT-feature histogram; For each dataset, we further conduct a simple preprocessing step as in [12], i.e. mean-centering each data sample, so as to obtain additional mean-centered versions of the above datasets, Photo Tourism SIFT (mean), and MIR-Flickr (mean). The experiment on these mean-centered datasets will test the performance of SBLSH when the angles of data pairs are not constrained in (0, ?/2]. 3.1.2 The Effect of Super-Bit Depth N and Code Length K SRP-LSH SBLSH Mean+SRP-LSH Mean+SBLSH SRP-LSH SBLSH Mean+SRP-LSH Mean+SBLSH SRP-LSH SBLSH Mean+SRP-LSH Mean+SBLSH SRP-LSH SBLSH Mean+SRP-LSH Mean+SBLSH Figure 3: The effect of Super-Bit depth N (1 < N ? min(d, K)) with fixed code length K (K = N ? L), and the effect of code length K with fixed Super-Bit depth N . 1 2 http://phototour.cs.washington.edu/patches/default.htm http://users.ecs.soton.ac.uk/jsh2/mirflickr/ 6 Table 1: ANN retrieval results, measured by proportion of good neighbors within query?s Hamming ball of radius 3. Note that the code length K = 30. Data E2LSH SRP-LSH SBLSH Notre Dame Half Dome Trevi 0.4675 ? 0.0900 0.4503 ? 0.0712 0.4661 ? 0.0849 0.7500 ? 0.0525 0.7137 ? 0.0413 0.7591 ? 0.0464 0.7845? 0.0352 0.7535? 0.0276 0.7891? 0.0329 In each dataset, for each (N, K) pair, i.e. Super-Bit depth N and code length K, we randomly sample 10,000 data, which involve about 50,000,000 data pairs, and randomly generate SRP-LSH functions, together with SBLSH functions by orthogonalizing the generated SRP in batches. We repeat the test for 10 times, and compute the mean squared error (MSE) of the estimation. To test the effect of Super-Bit depth N , we fix K = 120 for Photo Tourism SIFT and K = 3000 for MIR-Flickr respectively, and to test the effect of code length K, we fix N = 120 for Photo Tourism SIFT and N = 3000 for MIR-Flickr. We repeat the experiment on the mean-centered versions of these datasets, and denote the methods by Mean+SRP-LSH and Mean+SBLSH respectively. Figure 3 shows that when using fixed code length K, as the Super-Bit depth N gets larger (1 < N ? min(d, K)), the MSE of SBLSH gets smaller, and the gap between SBLSH and SRPLSH gets larger. Particularly, when N = K, over 30% MSE reduction can be observed on all the datasets. This verifies Corollary 2 that when applying SBLSH, the best strategy would be to set the Super-Bit depth N as large as possible, i.e. min(d, K). An informal explanation to this interesting phenomenon is that as the degree of orthogonality of the random projections gets higher, the code becomes more and more informative, and thus provides better estimate. On the other hand, it can be observed that the performances on the mean-centered datasets are similar as on the original datasets. This shows that even when the angle between each data pair is not constrained in (0, ?/2], SBLSH still gives much more accurate estimation. Figure 3 also shows that with fixed Super-Bit depth N SBLSH significantly outperforms SRP-LSH. When increasing the code length K, the accuracies of SBLSH and SRP-LSH shall both increase. The performances on the mean-centered datasets are similar as on the original datasets. 3.2 Approximate Nearest Neighbor Retrieval In this subsection, we conduct ANN retrieval experiment, which compares SBLSH with two other widely used data-independent binary LSH methods: SRP-LSH and E2LSH (we use the binary version in [25, 1]). We use the datasets Notre Dame, Half Dome and Trevi from the Photo Tourism patch dataset [26], which is also used in [12, 10, 13] for ANN retrieval. We use 128D SIFT representation and normalize the vectors to unit norm. For each dataset, we randomly pick 1,000 samples as queries, and the rest samples (around 100,000) as the corpus for the retrieval task. We define the good neighbors to a query q as the samples within the top 5% nearest neighbors (measured in Euclidean distance) to q. We adopt the evaluation criterion used in [12, 25], i.e. the proportion of good neighbors in returned samples that are within the query?s Hamming ball of radius r. We set r = 3. Using code length K = 30, we repeat the experiment for 10 times and take the mean of the results. For SBLSH, we fix the Super-Bit depth N = K = 30. Table 1 shows that SBLSH performs best among all these data-independent hashing methods. 4 Relations to Other Hashing Methods There exist different kinds of LSH methods, e.g. bit-sampling LSH [9, 7] for Hamming distance and `1 -distance, min-hash [2] for Jaccard coefficient, p-stable-distribution LSH [6] for `p -distance when p 2 (0, 2]. These data-independent methods are simple, thus easy to be integrated as a module in more complicated algorithms involving pairwise distance or similarity computation, e.g. nearest neighbor search. New data-independent methods for improving these original LSH methods have been proposed recently. [1] proposed a near-optimal LSH method for Euclidean distance. Li et al. [16] proposed b-bit minwise hash which improves the original min-hash in terms of compactness. 7 [17] shows that b-bit minwise hash can be integrated in linear learning algorithms for large-scale learning tasks. [14] reduces the variance of random projections by taking advantage of marginal norms, and compares the variance of SRP with regular random projections considering the margins. [15] proposed very sparse random projections for accelerating random projections and SRP. Prior to SBLSH, SRP-LSH [3] was the only hashing method proven to provide unbiased estimate of angular similarity. The proposed SBLSH method is the first data-independent method that outperforms SRP-LSH in terms of higher accuracy in estimating angular similarity. On the other hand, data-dependent hashing methods have been extensively studied. For example, spectral hashing [25] and anchor graph hashing [19] are data-dependent unsupervised methods. Kulis et al. [13] proposed kernelized locality-sensitive hashing (KLSH), which is based on SRPLSH, to approximate the angular similarity in very high or even infinite dimensional space induced by any given kernel, with access to data only via kernels. There are also a bunch of works devoted to semi-supervised or supervised hashing methods [10, 21, 23, 24, 18], which try to capture not only the geometry of the original data, but also the semantic relations. 5 Discussion Instead of the Gram-Schmidt process, we can use other method to orthogonalize the projection vectors, e.g. Householder transformation, which is numerically more stable. The advantage of Gram-Schmidt process is its simplicity in describing the algorithm. In the paper we did not test the method on data of very high dimension. When the dimension is high, and N is not small, the Gram-Schmidt process will be computationally expensive. In fact, when the dimension of data is very high, the random normal projection vectors {vi }i=1,2...,K will tend to be orthogonal to each other, thus it may not be very necessary to orthogonalize the vectors deliberately. From Corollary 2 and the results in Section 3.1.2, we can see that the closer the Super-Bit depth N is to the data dimension d, the larger the variance reduction SBLSH achieves over SRP-LSH. A technical report3 (Li et al.) shows that b-bit minwise hashing almost always has a smaller variance than SRP in estimating Jaccard coefficient on binary data. The comparison of SBLSH with b-bit minwise hashing for Jaccard coefficient is left for future work. 6 Conclusion and Future Work The proposed SBLSH is a data-independent hashing method which significantly outperforms SRPLSH. We have theoretically proved that SBLSH provides an unbiased estimate of angular similarity, and has a smaller variance than SRP-LSH when the angle to estimate is in (0, ?/2]. The algorithm is simple, easy to implement and can be integrated as a basic module in more complicated algorithms. Experiments show that with the same length of binary code, SBLSH achieves over 30% mean squared error reduction over SRP-LSH in estimating angular similarity, when the Super-Bit depth N is close to the data dimension d. Moreover, SBLSH performs best among several widely used data-independent LSH methods in approximate nearest neighbor retrieval experiments. Theoretically exploring the variance of SBLSH when the angle is in (?/2, ?] is left for future work. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program (973 Program) of China (Grant Nos. 2013CB329403 and 2012CB316301), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91120011 and 61273023), and Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program No.20121088071, and NExT Research Center funded under the research grant WBS. R-252-300001-490 by MDA, Singapore. And it was supported in part to Dr. Qi Tian by ARO grant W911BF12-1-0057, NSF IIS 1052851, Faculty Research Awards by Google, FXPAL, and NEC Laboratories of America, respectively. 3 www.stat.cornell.edu/?li/hashing/RP_minwise.pdf 8 References [1] Alexandr Andoni and Piotr Indyk. Near-optimal hashing algorithms for approximate nearest neighbor in high dimensions. In Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, 2006. [2] Andrei Z. Broder, Steven C. Glassman, Mark S. Manasse, and Geoffrey Zweig. Syntactic clustering of the web. Computer Networks, 29(8-13):1157?1166, 1997. [3] Moses Charikar. Similarity estimation techniques from rounding algorithms. In ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 2002. [4] Yasuko Chikuse. Statistics on Special Manifolds. Springer, February 2003. [5] Ondrej Chum, James Philbin, and Andrew Zisserman. Near duplicate image detection: min-hash and tf-idf weighting. In British Machine Vision Conference, 2008. [6] Mayur Datar, Nicole Immorlica, Piotr Indyk, and Vahab S. Mirrokni. Locality-sensitive hashing scheme based on p-stable distributions. In Symposium on Computational Geometry, 2004. [7] Aristides Gionis, Piotr Indyk, and Rajeev Motwani. Similarity search in high dimensions via hashing. In International Conference on Very Large Databases, 1999. [8] Michel X. Goemans and David P. Williamson. Improved approximation algorithms for maximum cut and satisfiability problems using semidefinite programming. Journal of the ACM, 42(6):1115?1145, 1995. [9] Piotr Indyk and Rajeev Motwani. Approximate nearest neighbors: Towards removing the curse of dimensionality. In ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 1998. [10] Prateek Jain, Brian Kulis, and Kristen Grauman. Fast image search for learned metrics. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2008. [11] Herv?e J?egou, Matthijs Douze, and Cordelia Schmid. Product quantization for nearest neighbor search. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 33(1):117?128, 2011. [12] Brian Kulis and Trevor Darrell. Learning to hash with binary reconstructive embeddings. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2009. [13] Brian Kulis and Kristen Grauman. Kernelized locality-sensitive hashing for scalable image search. In IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision, 2009. [14] Ping Li, Trevor Hastie, and Kenneth Ward Church. Improving random projections using marginal information. In COLT, pages 635?649, 2006. [15] Ping Li, Trevor Hastie, and Kenneth Ward Church. Very sparse random projections. In KDD, pages 287?296, 2006. [16] Ping Li and Arnd Christian K?onig. b-bit minwise hashing. In International World Wide Web Conference, 2010. [17] Ping Li, Anshumali Shrivastava, Joshua L. Moore, and Arnd Christian K?onig. Hashing algorithms for large-scale learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2011. [18] Wei Liu, Jun Wang, Rongrong Ji, Yu-Gang Jiang, and Shih-Fu Chang. Supervised hashing with kernels. In CVPR, pages 2074?2081, 2012. [19] Wei Liu, Jun Wang, Sanjiv Kumar, and Shih-Fu Chang. Hashing with graphs. In ICML, pages 1?8, 2011. [20] David G. Lowe. Distinctive image features from scale-invariant keypoints. International Journal of Computer Vision, 60(2):91?110, 2004. [21] Yadong Mu, Jialie Shen, and Shuicheng Yan. Weakly-supervised hashing in kernel space. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2010. [22] Antonio Torralba, Robert Fergus, and William T. Freeman. 80 million tiny images: A large data set for nonparametric object and scene recognition. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 30(11):1958?1970, 2008. [23] Jun Wang, Sanjiv Kumar, and Shih-Fu Chang. Sequential projection learning for hashing with compact codes. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2010. [24] Jun Wang, Sanjiv Kumar, and Shih-Fu Chang. Semi-supervised hashing for large scale search. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 99(PrePrints), 2012. [25] Yair Weiss, Antonio Torralba, and Robert Fergus. Spectral hashing. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2008. [26] Simon A. J. Winder and Matthew Brown. Learning local image descriptors. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2007. 9
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Learning Image Descriptors with the Boosting-Trick Tomasz Trzcinski, Mario Christoudias, Vincent Lepetit and Pascal Fua CVLab, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland [email protected] Abstract In this paper we apply boosting to learn complex non-linear local visual feature representations, drawing inspiration from its successful application to visual object detection. The main goal of local feature descriptors is to distinctively represent a salient image region while remaining invariant to viewpoint and illumination changes. This representation can be improved using machine learning, however, past approaches have been mostly limited to learning linear feature mappings in either the original input or a kernelized input feature space. While kernelized methods have proven somewhat effective for learning non-linear local feature descriptors, they rely heavily on the choice of an appropriate kernel function whose selection is often difficult and non-intuitive. We propose to use the boosting-trick to obtain a non-linear mapping of the input to a high-dimensional feature space. The non-linear feature mapping obtained with the boosting-trick is highly intuitive. We employ gradient-based weak learners resulting in a learned descriptor that closely resembles the well-known SIFT. As demonstrated in our experiments, the resulting descriptor can be learned directly from intensity patches achieving state-of-the-art performance. 1 Introduction Representing salient image regions in a way that is invariant to unwanted image transformations is a crucial Computer Vision task. Well-known local feature descriptors, such as the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) [1] or Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF) [2], address this problem by using a set of hand-crafted filters and non-linear operations. These descriptors have become prevalent, even though they are not truly invariant with respect to various viewpoint and illumination changes which limits their applicability. In an effort to address these limitations, a fair amount of work has focused on learning local feature descriptors [3, 4, 5] that leverage labeled training image patches to learn invariant feature representations based on local image statistics. Although significant progress has been made, these approaches are either built on top of hand-crafted representations [5] or still require significant parameter tuning as in [4] which relies on a non-analytical objective that is difficult to optimize. Learning an invariant feature representation is strongly related to learning an appropriate similarity measure or metric over intensity patches that is invariant to unwanted image transformations, and work on descriptor learning has been predominantly focused in this area [3, 6, 5]. Methods for metric learning that have been applied to image data have largely focused on learning a linear feature mapping in either the original input or a kernelized input feature space [7, 8]. This includes previous boosting-based metric learning methods that thus far have been limited to learning linear feature transformations [3, 7, 9]. In this way, non-linearities are modeled using a predefined similarity or kernel function that implicitly maps the input features to a high-dimensional feature space where the transformation is assumed to be linear. While these methods have proven somewhat effective for learning non-linear local feature mappings, choosing an appropriate kernel function is often nonintuitive and remains a challenging and largely open problem. Additionally, kernel methods involve 1 an optimization whose problem complexity grows quadratically with the number of training examples making them difficult to apply to large problems that are typical to local descriptor learning. In this paper, we apply boosting to learn complex non-linear local visual feature representations drawing inspiration from its successful application to visual object detection [10]. Image patch appearance is modeled using local non-linear filters evaluated within the image patch that are effectively selected with boosting. Analogous to the kernel-trick, our approach can be seen as applying a boosting-trick [11] to obtain a non-linear mapping of the input to a high-dimensional feature space. Unlike kernel methods, the boosting-trick allows for the definition of intuitive non-linear feature mappings. Also, our learning approach scales linearly with the number of training examples making it more easily amenable to large scale problems and results in highly accurate descriptor matching. We build upon [3] that also relies on boosting to compute a descriptor, and show how we can use it as a way to efficiently select features, from which we compute a compact representation. We also replace the simple weak learners of [3] by non-linear filters more adapted to the problem. In particular, we employ image gradient-based weak learners similar to [12] that share a close connection with the non-linear filters used in proven image descriptors such as SIFT and Histogram-of-Oriented Gradients (HOG) [13]. Our approach can be seen as a generalization of these methods cast within a principled learning framework. As seen in our experiments, our descriptor can be learned directly from intensity patches and results in state-of-the-art performance rivaling its hand-designed equivalents. To evaluate our approach we consider the image patch dataset of [4] containing several hundreds of thousands of image patches under varying viewpoint and illumination conditions. As baselines we compare against leading contemporary hand-designed and learned local feature descriptors [1, 2, 3, 5]. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on this challenging dataset, significantly outperforming the baseline methods. 2 Related work Machine learning has been applied to improve both matching efficiency and accuracy of image descriptors [3, 4, 5, 8, 14, 15]. Feature hashing methods improve the storage and computational requirements of image-based features [16, 14, 15]. Salakhutdinov and Hinton [16, 17] develop a semantic hashing approach based on Restricted Boltzman Machines (RBMs) applied to binary images of digits. Similarly, Weiss et al. [14] present a spectral hashing approach that learns compact binary codes for efficient image indexing and matching. Kulis and Darrell [15] extend this idea to explicitly minimize the error between the original Euclidean and computed Hamming distances. Many of these approaches presume a given distance or similarity measure over a pre-defined input feature space. Although they result in efficient description and indexing in many cases they are limited to the matching accuracy of the original input space. In contrast, our approach learns a nonlinear feature mapping that is specifically optimized to result in highly accurate descriptor matching. Methods to metric learning learn feature spaces tailored to a particular matching task [5, 8]. These methods assume the presence of annotated label pairs or triplets that encode the desired proximity relationships of the learned feature embedding. Jain et al. [8] learn a Mahalanobis distance metric defined using either the original input or a kernelized input feature space applied to image classification and matching. Alternatively, Strecha et al. [5] employ Linear Discriminant Analysis to learn a linear feature mapping from binary-labeled example pairs. Both of these methods are closely related, offering different optimization strategies for learning a Mahalanobis-based distance metric. While these methods improve matching accuracy through a learned feature space, they require the presence of a pre-selected kernel function to encode non-linearities. Such approaches are well suited for certain image indexing and classification tasks where task-specific kernel functions have been proposed (e.g., [18]). However, they are less applicable to local image feature matching, for which the appropriate choice of kernel function is less understood. Boosting has also been applied for learning Mahalanobis-based distance metrics involving highdimensional input spaces overcoming the large computational complexity of conventional positive semi-definite (PSD) solvers based on the interior point method [7, 9]. Shen et al. [19] proposed a PSD solver using column generation techniques based on AdaBoost, that was later extended to involve closed-form iterative updates [7]. More recently, Bi et al. [9] devised a similar method exhibiting even further improvements in computational complexity with application to bio-medical imagery. While these methods also use boosting to learn a feature mapping, they have emphasized 2 computational efficiency only considering linear feature embeddings. Our approach exhibits similar computational advantages, however, has the ability to learn non-linear feature mappings beyond what these methods have proposed. Similar to our work, Brown et al. [4] also consider different feature pooling and selection strategies of gradient-based features resulting in a descriptor which is both short and discriminant. In [4], however, they optimize on the combination of handcrafted blocks, and their parameters. The criterion they consider?the area below the ROC curve?is not analytical and thus difficult to optimize, and does not generalize well. In contrast, we provide a generic learning framework for finding such representations. Moreover, the form of our descriptor is much simpler. Simultaneous to this work, similar ideas were explored in [20, 21]. While these approaches assume a sub-sampled or course set of pooling regions to mitigate tractability, we allow for the discovery of more generic pooling configurations with boosting. Our work on boosted feature learning can be traced back to the work of Doll?ar et al. [22] where they apply boosting across a range of different features for pedestrian detection. Our approach is probably most similar to the boosted Similarity Sensitive Coding (SSC) method of Shakhnarovich [3] that learns a boosted similarity function from a family of weak learners, a method that was later extended in [23] to be used with a Hamming distance. In [3], only linear projection based weak-learners were considered. Also, Boosted SSC can often yield fairly high-dimensional embeddings. Our approach can be seen as an extension of Boosted SSC to form low-dimensional feature mappings. We also show that the image gradient-based weak learners of [24] are well adapted to the problem. As seen in our experiments, our approach significantly outperforms Boosted SSC when applied to image intensity patches. 3 Method Given an image intensity patch x ? RD we look for a descriptor of x as a non-linear mapping H(x) into the space spanned by {hi }M i=1 , a collection of thresholded non-linear response functions hi (x) : RD ? {?1, 1}. The number of response functions M is generally large and possibly infinite. This mapping can be learned by minimizing the exponential loss with respect to a desired similarity function f (x, y) defined over image patch pairs N X L= exp(?li f (xi , yi )) (1) i=1 where xi , yi ? RD are training intensity patches and li ? {?1, 1} is a label indicating whether it is a similar (+1) or dissimilar (?1) pair. The Boosted SSC method proposed in [3] considers a similarity function defined by a simply weighted sum of thresholded response functions f (x, y) = M X ?i hi (x)hi (y) . (2) i=1 This defines a weighted hash function with the importance of each dimension i given by ?i . Substituting this expression into Equation (1) gives ? ? N M X X LSSC = exp ??li ?j hj (xi )hj (yi )? . i=1 (3) j=1 In practice M is large and in general the number of possible hi ?s can be infinite making the explicit optimization of LSSC difficult, which constitutes a problem for which boosting is particularly well suited [25]. Although boosting is a greedy optimization scheme, it is a provably effective method for constructing a highly accurate predictor from a collection of weak predictors hi . Similar to the kernel trick, the resulting boosting-trick also maps each observation to a highdimensional feature space, however, it computes an explicit mapping for which the ?i ?s that define f (x, y) are assumed to be sparse [11]. In fact, Rosset et al. [26] have shown that under certain 3 settings boosting can be interpreted as imposing an L1 sparsity constraint over the response function weights ?i . As will be seen below, unlike the kernel trick, this allows for the definition of high-dimensional embeddings well suited to the descriptor matching task whose features have an intuitive explanation. Boosted SSC employs linear response weak predictors based on a linear projection of the input. In contrast, we consider non-linear response functions more suitable for the descriptor matching task as discussed in Section 3.3. In addition, the greedy optimization can often yield embeddings that although accurate are fairly redundant and inefficient. In what follows, we will present our approach for learning compact boosted feature descriptors called Low-Dimensional Boosted Gradient Maps (L-BGM). First, we present a modified similarity function well suited for learning low-dimensional, discriminative embeddings with boosting. Next, we show how we can factorize the learned embedding to form a compact feature descriptor. Finally, the gradient-based weak learners utilized by our approach are detailed. 3.1 Similarity measure To mitigate the potentially redundant embeddings found by boosting we propose an alternative similarity function that models the correlation between weak response functions, X fLBGM (x, y) = ?i,j hi (x)hj (y) = h(x)T Ah(y), (4) i,j where h(x) = [h1 (x), ? ? ? , hM (x)] and A is an M ? M matrix of coefficients ?i,j . This similarity measure is a generalization of Equation (2). In particular, fLBGM is equivalent to the Boosted SSC similarity measure in the restricted case of a diagonal A. Substituting the above expression into Equation (1) gives ? ? N X X LLBGM = exp ??lk ?i,j hi (xk )hj (yk )? . (5) i,j k=1 Although it can be shown that LLBGM can be jointly optimized for A and the hi ?s using boosting, this involves a fairly complex procedure. Instead, we propose a two step learning strategy whereby we first apply AdaBoost to find the hi ?s as in [3]. As shown by our experiments, this provides an effective way to select relevant hi ?s. We then apply stochastic gradient descent to find an optimal weighting over the selected features that minimizes LLBGM . More formally, let P be the number of relevant response functions found with AdaBoost with P  M . We define AP ? RP ?P to be the sub-matrix corresponding to the non-zero entries of A, explicitly optimized by our approach. Note that as the loss function is convex in A, AP can be found optimally with respect to the selected hi ?s. In addition, we constrain ?i,j = ?j,i during optimization restricting the solution to the set of symmetric P ? P matrices yielding a symmetric similarity measure fLBGM . We also experimented with more restrictive forms of regularization, e.g., constraining AP to be possitive semi-definite, however, this is more costly and gave similar results. We use a simple implementation of stochastic gradient descent with a constant valued step size, initialized using the diagonal matrix found by Boosted SSC, and iterate until convergence or a maximum number of iterations is reached. Note that because the weak learners are binary, we can precompute the exponential terms involved in the derivatives for all the data samples, as they are constant with respect to AP . This significantly speeds up the optimization process. 3.2 Embedding factorization The similarity function of Equation (4) defines an implicit feature mapping over example pairs. We now show how the AP matrix in fLBGM can be factorized to result in compact feature descriptors computed independently over each input. Assuming AP to be a symmetric P ? P matrix it can be factorized into the following form, AP = BWBT = d X k=1 4 wk bk bTk (6) ? weighting ?R1,e 1 R1 e3 e4 e2 e1 R2 e0 e5 e6 R3 Image Gradients R4 Keypoint Descriptor Figure 1: A specialized configuration of weak response functions ? corresponding to a regular gridding within the image patch. In addition, assuming a Gaussian weighting of the ??s results in a descriptor that closely resembles SIFT [1] and is one of the many solutions afforded by our learning framework. where W = diag([w1 , ? ? ? , wd ]), wk ? {?1, 1}, B = [b1 , ? ? ? , bd ], b ? RP , and d ? P . Equation (4) can then be re-expressed as fLBGM (x, y) = d X wk k=1 P X ? !? P X bk,j hj (y)? . bk,i hi (x) ? i=1 j=1 (7) This factorization defines a signed inner product between the embedded feature vectors and provides increased efficiency with respect to the original similarity measure 1 . For d < P (i.e., the effective rank of AP is d < P ) the factorization represents a smoothed version of AP discarding the lowenergy dimensions that typically correlate with noise, leading to further performance improvements. The final embedding found with our approach is therefore HLBGM (x) = BT h(x) , and HLBGM (x) : R D (8) d ?R . The projection matrix B defines a discriminative dimensionality reduction optimized with respect to the exponential loss objective of Equation (5). As seen in our experiments, in the case of redundant hi this results in a considerable feature compression, also offering a more compact description than the original input patch. 3.3 Weak learners The boosting-trick allows for a variety of non-linear embeddings parameterized by the chosen weak learner family. We employ the gradient-based response functions of [12] to form our feature descriptor. In [12], the usefulness of these features was demonstrated for visual object detection. In what follows, we extend these features to the descriptor matching task illustrating their close connection with the well-known SIFT descriptor. Following the notation of [12], our weak learners are defined as  1 if ?R,e (x) ? T h(x; R, e, T ) = , ?1 otherwise where ?R,e (x) = X ?e (x, m) / X ?ek (x, m) , (9) (10) ek ??,m?R m?R with region ?e (x, m) being the gradient energy along an orientation e at location m within x, and R defining a rectangular extent within the patch. The gradient energy is computed based on the dot product between e and the gradient orientation at pixel m [12]. The orientation e ranges between 4? 2? [??, ?] and is quantized to take values ? = {0, 2? q , q , ? ? ? , (q ? 1) ? q } with q the number of 1 Matching two sets of descriptors each of size N is O(N 2 P 2 ) under the original measure and O(N P d + N 2 d) provided the factorization, resulting in significant savings for reasonably sized N and P , and d  P . 5 1.2 1 1.2 1 0.8 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 (a) (b) (c) Figure 2: Learned spatial weighting obtained with Boosted Gradient Maps (BGM) trained on (a) Liberty, (b) Notre Dame and (c) Yosemite datasets. The learned weighting closely resembles the Gaussian weighting employed by SIFT (white circles indicate ?/2 and ? used by SIFT). quantization bins. As noted in [12] this representation can be computed efficiently using integral images. The non-linear gradient response functions ?R,e along with their thresholding T define the parameterization of the weak learner family optimized with our approach. Consider the specialized configuration illustrated in Figure 1. This corresponds to a selection of weak learners whose R and e values are parameterized such that they lie along a regular grid, equally sampling each edge orientation within each grid cell. In addition, if we assume a Gaussian weighting centered about the patch, the resulting descriptor closely resembles SIFT2 [1]. In fact, this configuration and weighting corresponds to one of the many solutions afforded by our approach. In [4], they note the importance of allowing for alternative pooling and feature selection strategies, both of which are effectively optimized within our framework. As seen in our experiments, this results in a significant performance gain over hand-designed SIFT. 4 Results In this section, we first present an overview of our evaluation framework. We then show the results obtained using Boosted SSC combined with gradient-based weak learners described in Sec. 3.3. We continue with the results generated when applying the factorized embedding of the matrix A. Finally, we present a comparison of our final descriptor with the state of the art. 4.1 Evaluation framework We evaluate the performance of our methods using three publicly available datasets: Liberty, Notre Dame and Yosemite [4]. Each of them contain over 400k scale- and rotation-normalized 64 ? 64 patches. These patches are sampled around interest points detected using Difference of Gaussians and the correspondences between patches are found using a multi-view stereo algorithm. The datasets created this way exhibit substantial perspective distortion and various lighting conditions. The ground truth available for each of these datasets describes 100k, 200k and 500k pairs of patches, where 50% correspond to match pairs, and 50% to non-match pairs. In our evaluation, we separately consider each dataset for training and use the held-out datasets for testing. We report the results of the evaluation in terms of ROC curves and 95% error rate as is done in [4]. 4.2 Boosted Gradient Maps To show the performance boost we get by using gradient-based weak learners in our boosting scheme, we plot the results for the original Boosted SSC method [3], which relies on thresholded pixel intensities as weak learners, and for the same method which uses gradient-based weak learners instead (referred to as Boosted Gradient Maps (BGM)) with q = 24 quantized orientation bins used throughout our experiments. As we can see in Fig. 3(a), a 128-dimensional Boosted SSC descriptor can be easily outperformed by a 32-dimensional BGM descriptor. When comparing descriptors with the same dimensionality, the improvement measured in terms of 95% error rate reaches over 50%. Furthermore, it is worth noticing, that with 128 dimensions BGM performs similarly to SIFT, and when we increase the dimensionality to 512 - it outperforms SIFT by 14% in terms of 95% error rate. When comparing the 256-dimensional SIFT (obtained by increasing the granularity of the orientation bins) with the 256-dimensional BGM, the extended SIFT descriptor performs much worse 2 SIFT additionally normalizes each descriptor to be unit norm, however, the underlying representation is otherwise quite similar. 6 Train: Liberty (200k) Test: Notre Dame (100k) 1 0.9 0.9 True Positive Rate True Positive Rate Train: Liberty (200k) Test: Notre Dame (100k) 1 0.8 0.7 SIFT (128, 28.09%) Boosted SSC (128, 72.95%) BGM (32, 37.03%) BGM (64, 29.60%) BGM (128, 21.93%) BGM (256, 15.99%) BGM (512, 14.36%) 0.6 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 SIFT (128, 28.09%) Boosted SSC (128, 72.95%) BGM-PCA (32, 25.73%) L-BGM-Diag (32, 34.71%) L-BGM (32, 16.20%) L-BGM (64, 14.15%) L-BGM (128, 13.76%) L-BGM (256, 13.38%) L-BGM (512, 16.33%) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0 False Positive Rate 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 False Positive Rate (a) (b) Figure 3: (a) Boosted SCC using thresholded pixel intensities in comparison with our Boosted Gradient Maps (BGM) approach. (b) Results after optimization of the correlation matrix A. Performance is evaluated with respect to factorization dimensionality d. In parentheses: the number of dimensions and the 95% error rate. (34.22% error rate vs 15.99% for BGM-256). This indicates that boosting with a similar number of non-linear classifiers adds to the performance, and proves how well tuned the SIFT descriptor is. Visualizations of the learned weighting obtained with BGM trained on Liberty, Notre Dame and Yosemite datasets are displayed in Figure 2. To plot the visualizations we sum the ??s across orientations within the rectangular regions of the corresponding weak learners. Note that although there are some differences, interestingly this weighting closely resembles the Gaussian weighting employed by SIFT. 4.3 Low-Dimensional Boosted Gradient Maps To further improve performance, we optimize over the correlation matrix of the weak learners? responses, as explained in Sec. 3.1, and apply the embedding from Sec. 3.2. The results of this method are shown in Fig. 3(b). In these experiments, we learn our L-BGM descriptor using the responses of 512 gradient-based weak learners selected with boosting. We first optimize over the weak learners? correlation matrix which is constrained to be diagonal. This corresponds to a global optimization of the weights of the weak learners. The resulting 32-dimensional L-BGM-Diag descriptor performs only slightly better than the corresponding 32-dimensional BGM. Interestingly, the additional degrees of freedom obtained by optimizing over the full correlation matrix boost the results significantly and allow us to outperform SIFT with as few as 32 dimensions. When we compare our 128-dimensional descriptor, i.e., the descriptor of the same length as SIFT, we observe 15% improvement in terms of 95% error rate. However, when we increase the descriptor length from 256 to 512 we can see a slight performance drop since we begin to include the ?noisy? dimensions of our embedding which correspond to the eigenvalues of low magnitude, a trend typical to many dimensionality reduction techniques. Hence, as our final descriptor, we select the 64-dimensional L-BGM descriptor, as it provides a decent trade-off between performance and descriptor length. Figure 3(b) also shows the results obtained by applying PCA on the responses of 512 gradient-based weak learners (BGM-PCA). The descriptor generated this way performs similarly to SIFT, however our method still provides better results even for the same dimensionality, which shows the advantage in optimizing the exponential loss of Eq. 5. 4.4 Comparison with the state of the art Here we compare our approach against the following baselines: sum of squared differences of pixel intensities (SSD), the state-of-the-art SIFT descriptor [1], SURF descriptor [2], binary LDAHash descriptor [5], a real-valued descriptor computed by applying LDE projections on bias-gain normalized patches (LDA-int) [4] and the original Boosted SSC [3]. We have also tested recent binary descriptors such as BRIEF [27], ORB [28] or BRISK [29], however, they performed much worse than the baselines presented in the paper. For SIFT, we use the publicly available implementation of A. Vedaldi [30]. For SURF and LDAHash, we use the implementation available from the websites of the authors. For the other methods, we use our own implementation. For LDA-int we choose the dimensionality which was reported to perform the best on a given dataset according to [4]. For Boosted SSC, we use 128-dimensions as this obtained the best performance. 7 Train: Yosemite (200k) Test: Notre Dame (100k) 1 0.9 0.9 True Positive Rate True Positive Rate Train: Notre Dame (200k) Test: Liberty (100k) 1 0.8 0.7 SSD (1024, 69.11%) SIFT (128, 36.27%) SURF (64, 54.01%) LDAHash (128, 49.66%) LDA-int (27, 53.93%) Boosted SSC (128, 70.35%) BGM (256, 21.62%) L-BGM (64, 18.05%) 0.6 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 SSD (1024, 76.13%) SIFT (128, 28.09%) SURF (64, 45.51%) LDAHash (128, 51.58%) LDA-int (14, 49.14%) Boosted SSC (128, 72.20%) BGM (256, 14.69%) L-BGM (64, 13.73%) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0 False Positive Rate 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 False Positive Rate (a) (b) Figure 4: Comparison to state of the art. In parentheses: the number of dimensions, and the 95% error rate. Our L-BGM approach outperforms SIFT by up to 18% in terms of 95% error rate using half fewer dimensions. In Fig. 4 we plot the recognition curves for all the baselines and our method. BGM and L-BGM outperform the baseline methods across all FP rates. The maximal performance boost is obtained by using our 64-dimensional L-BGM descriptor that results in an up to 18% improvement in terms of 95% error rate with respect to the state-of-the-art SIFT descriptor. Descriptors derived from patch intensities, i.e. SSD, Boosted SSC and LDA-int, perform much worse than the gradient-based ones. Finally, our BGM and L-BGM descriptors far outperform SIFT which relies on hand-crafted filters applied to gradient maps. Moreover, with BGM and L-BGM we are able to reduce the 95% error rate by over 3 times with respect to the other state-of-the-art descriptors, namely SURF and LDAHash. We have computed the results for all the configurations of training and testing datasets without observing any significant differences, thus we show here only a representative set of the curves. More results can be found in the supplementary material. Interestingly, the results we obtain are comparable with ?the best of the best? results reported in [4]. However, since the code for their compact descriptors is not publicly available, we can only compare the performance in terms of the 95% error rates. Only the composite descriptors of [4] provide some advantage over our compact L-BGM, as their average 95% error rate is 2% lower than this of L-BGM. Nevertheless, we outperform their non-parametric descriptors by 12% and perform slightly better than the parametric ones, while using descriptors of an order of magnitude shorter. This comparison indicates that even though our approach does not require any complex pipeline optimization and parameter tuning, we perform similarly to the finely optimized descriptors presented in [4]. 5 Conclusions In this paper we presented a new method for learning image descriptors by using Low-Dimensional Boosted Gradient Maps (L-BGM). L-BGM offers an attractive alternative to traditional descriptor learning techniques that model non-linearities based on the kernel-trick, relying on a pre-specified kernel function whose selection can be difficult and unintuitive. In contrast, we have shown that for the descriptor matching problem the boosting-trick leads to non-linear feature mappings whose features have an intuitive explanation. We demonstrated the use of gradient-based weak learner functions for learning descriptors within our framework, illustrating their close connection with the well-known SIFT descriptor. A discriminative embedding technique was also presented, yielding fairly compact and discriminative feature descriptions compared to the baseline methods. We evaluated our approach on benchmark datasets where L-BGM was shown to outperform leading contemporary hand-designed and learned feature descriptors. Unlike previous approaches, our L-BGM descriptor can be learned directly from raw intensity patches achieving state-of-the-art performance. Interesting avenues of future work include the exploration of other weak learner families for descriptor learning, e.g., SURF-like Haar features, and extensions to binary feature embeddings. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Karim Ali for sharing his feature code and his insightful feedback and discussions. References [1] Lowe, D.: Distinctive Image Features from Scale-Invariant Keypoints. IJCV 20(2) (2004) 91?110 8 [2] Bay, H., Tuytelaars, T., Van Gool, L.: SURF: Speeded Up Robust Features. In: ECCV?06 [3] Shakhnarovich, G.: Learning Task-Specific Similarity. PhD thesis, MIT (2006) [4] Brown, M., Hua, G., Winder, S.: Discriminative Learning of Local Image Descriptors. PAMI (2011) [5] Strecha, C., Bronstein, A., Bronstein, M., Fua, P.: LDAHash: Improved Matching with Smaller Descriptors. PAMI 34(1) (2012) [6] Kulis, B., Jain, P., Grauman, K.: Fast Similarity Search for Learned Metrics. PAMI (2009) 2143?2157 [7] Shen, C., Kim, J., Wang, L., van den Hengel, A.: Positive Semidefinite Metric Learning with Boosting. In: NIPS. (2009) [8] Jain, P., Kulis, B., Davis, J., Dhillon, I.: Metric and Kernel Learning using a Linear Transformation. JMLR (2012) [9] Bi, J., Wu, D., Lu, L., Liu, M., Tao, Y., Wolf, M.: AdaBoost on Low-Rank PSD Matrices for Metric Learning. In: CVPR. (2011) [10] Viola, P., Jones, M.: Rapid Object Detection Using a Boosted Cascade of Simple Features. In: CVPR?01 [11] Chapelle, O., Shivaswamy, P., Vadrevu, S., Weinberger, K., Zhang, Y., Tseng, B.: Boosted Multi-Task Learning. Machine Learning (2010) [12] Ali, K., Fleuret, F., Hasler, D., Fua, P.: A Real-Time Deformable Detector. PAMI 34(2) (2012) 225?239 [13] Dalal, N., Triggs, B.: Histograms of Oriented Gradients for Human Detection. In: CVPR?05 [14] Weiss, Y., Torralba, A., Fergus, R.: Spectral Hashing. NIPS 21 (2009) 1753?1760 [15] Kulis, B., Darrell, T.: Learning to Hash with Binary Reconstructive Embeddings. In: NIPS?09 [16] Salakhutdinov, R., Hinton, G.: Learning a Nonlinear Embedding by Preserving Class Neighbourhood Structure. In: International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. (2007) [17] Salakhutdinov, R., Hinton, G.: Semantic Hashing. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (2009) [18] Grauman, K., Darrell, T.: The Pyramid Match Kernel: Discriminative Classification with Sets of Image Features. In: ICCV?05 [19] Shen, C., Welsh, A., Wang, L.: PSDBoost: Matrix Generation Linear Programming for Positive Semidefinite Matrices Learning. In: NIPS. (2008) [20] Jia, Y., Huang, C., Darrell, T.: Beyond Spatial Pyramids: Receptive Field Learning for Pooled Image Features. In: CVPR?12 [21] Simonyan, K., Vedaldi, A., Zisserman, A.: Descriptor Learning Using Convex Optimisation. In: ECCV?12 [22] Doll?ar, P., Tu, Z., Perona, P., Belongie, S.: Integral Channel Features. In: BMVC?09 [23] Torralba, A., Fergus, R., Weiss, Y.: Small Codes and Large Databases for Recognition. In: CVPR?08 [24] Ali, K., Fleuret, F., Hasler, D., Fua, P.: A Real-Time Deformable Detector. PAMI (2011) [25] Freund, Y., Schapire, R.: A Decision-Theoretic Generalization of On-Line Learning and an Application to Boosting. In: European Conference on Computational Learning Theory. (1995) [26] Rosset, S., Zhu, J., Hastie, T.: Boosting as a Regularized Path to a Maximum Margin Classifier. JMLR (2004) [27] Calonder, M., Lepetit, V., Ozuysal, M., Trzcinski, T., Strecha, C., Fua, P.: BRIEF: Computing a Local Binary Descriptor Very Fast. PAMI 34(7) (2012) 1281?1298 [28] Rublee, E., Rabaud, V., Konolidge, K., Bradski, G.: ORB: An Efficient Alternative to SIFT or SURF. In: ICCV?11 [29] Leutenegger, S., Chli, M., Siegwart, R.: BRISK: Binary Robust Invariant Scalable Keypoints. In: ICCV?11 [30] Vedaldi, A.: http://www.vlfeat.org/?vedaldi/code/siftpp.html 9
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Learning with Target Prior Siwei Lyu Computer Science, Univ. at Albany, SUNY Albany, NY 12222 [email protected] Zuoguan Wang Dept. of ECSE, Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst. Troy, NY 12180 [email protected] Qiang Ji Dept. of ECSE, Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst. Troy, NY 12180 [email protected] Gerwin Schalk Wadsworth Center, NYS Dept. of Health Albany, NY, 12201 [email protected] Abstract In the conventional approaches for supervised parametric learning, relations between data and target variables are provided through training sets consisting of pairs of corresponded data and target variables. In this work, we describe a new learning scheme for parametric learning, in which the target variables y can be modeled with a prior model p(y) and the relations between data and target variables are estimated with p(y) and a set of uncorresponded data X in training. We term this method as learning with target priors (LTP). Specifically, LTP learning seeks parameter ? that maximizes the log likelihood of f? (X) on a uncorresponded training set with regards to p(y). Compared to the conventional (semi)supervised learning approach, LTP can make efficient use of prior knowledge of the target variables in the form of probabilistic distributions, and thus removes/reduces the reliance on training data in learning. Compared to the Bayesian approach, the learned parametric regressor in LTP can be more efficiently implemented and deployed in tasks where running efficiency is critical. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on parametric regression tasks for BCI signal decoding and pose estimation from video. 1 Introduction One of the central problems in machine learning is prediction/inference, where given an input datum X, we would like to predict or infer the value of a target variable of interest, y, assuming X and y have some intrinsic relationship. The prediction/inference task in many practical applications involves high dimensional and structured data and target variables. Depending on the form of knowledge about X and y and their relationship available to us, there are several different methodologies to solve the prediction inference problem. In the Bayesian approach, our knowledge about input and target variables, as well as their relationships, are all represented as probability distributions. Correspondingly, the prediction/inference task is solved with optimizations based on the posterior distribution p(y|X), a common choice of which is the maximum a posteriori objective: maxy p(y|X). The posterior distribution can be explicitly constructed from the target prior, p(y), which encodes our knowledge on the internal structure of the target y, and the likelihood, p(X|y), which summarizes the process of generating X from y, as p(y|X) ? p(X|y)p(y). Or it can be directly handled as in the conditional random fields [9] without referring to the target prior or the likelihood. The advantage of the Bayesian approach is that it incorporates prior knowledge about data and target variables into the prediction/inference task in a principled manner. The main downside is that, in many practical problems, the relationship between X and y could be complicated and defy straightforward modeling. Furthermore, except for a few special cases (e.g., Gaussian models), the Bayesian prediction/inference of y from data X usually requires expensive numerical optimization or Monte-Carlo sampling. 1 An alternative approach to prediction/inference is supervised parametric learning, where the information about X and y and their relationship is described in the form of a set of corresponding examples, {Xi , yi }m i=1 , and the goal of learning is to choose an optimal member from a parametric family f (X) that minimizes the average prediction error using a loss function ? Pm 1 min? m i=1 L(yi ? f? (Xi )). Usually, the optimization may also include a regularization penalty on ? to reduce over-fitting. The most significant drawback of the supervised parametric learning approach is that the learning performance relies heavily on the quality and quantity of the training data. This problem is somewhat alleviated in semi-supervised learning [28], where the training data include unlabeled examples of X. However, unlike the Bayesian approach, it is usually difficult to incorporate prior knowledge in the form of probabilistic distributions into (semi)supervised parametric learning. In this work, we describe a new approach to learning a parametric regressor f? (X), which we term as learning with target prior (LTP). In many practical applications, the target variables y follow the some regular spatial and temporal patterns that can be described probabilistically, and the observed target variables are samples of such distributions. For instance, to perform an activity like grasping a cup, the traces of finger movements tend to have similar patterns that are caused by many factors, such as the underlying physiological, anatomical and dynamic constraints. Such regular patterns can benefit the task of decoding the finger movements from ECoG signals in a brain computer interface (BCI) system, Fig.1, as it regularizes the decoder to produce similar patterns. Similarly, the skeleton structures and the dynamic dependencies constraint the body pose to have similar spatial and temporal patterns for the same activity (e.g. walking, running and jumping), which can be used for body pose estimation in computer vision. In LTP learning, we incorporate such spatial and temporal regular patterns of the target variables into the learning framework. Specifically, we learn a probability distribution p(y) that captures the spatial and temporal regularities of the target variable y, then we estimate the function parameters ?, by maximizing the log-likelihood of the output y = f? (X) with respect to the the prior distribution. LTP learning can be applied to both unsupervised learning, in which no corresponded input and output are available, and semi-supervised learning in which part of corresponding outputs are available. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LTP learning in two problems: BCI decoding and pose estimation. The rest of the paper is organized as the following: Section 2 discusses the related work. Section 3 describes the general framework for our method and compare with other existing methodologies. In Sections 4 and 5, details on deployment and experimental evaluation of this general framework in two applications, namely BCI decoding and pose estimation from video, are described. Section 6 concludes the paper with discussion and future works. 2 Related Work LTP learning is related to several existing learning schemes. The prior knowledge about the target variables in classification problems is exploited in recent works as learning with uncertain labels, in which the distribution over the target class labels for each data example is used in place of corresponding pairs of data/target variables [10]. A similar idea in semi-supervised learning uses the proportion of different classes [16, 28] to predict the class labels on the uncorresponded training data examples. The knowledge about class proportion conditioned on certain input feature is captured by generalized expectation (GE)[12, 13]. There are several works directly embed domain constraints about the target variables in learning. For instance, constraint driven learning (CODL) [3] enforces task specific constraints on the target labels by appending a penalty term in the objective function. Posterior regularization [5] directly imposes regularization on the posterior of the latent target variables, of which CODL can be seen as a special case with MAP approximation. A general framework, which incorporates prior information as measurements in the Bayesian framework, is proposed in [11]. However, all these approaches have only been applied to problems with discrete outputs (classification or labeling) and may be difficult to extend to incorporate complex dependencies in high-dimensional continuous target variables. LTP learning is also related to learning with structured outputs. Dependencies in the target variables can be directly modeled in conditional random fields (CRF) [9], as a probabilistic graphical model between the output components. However, the learned regressor is usually not in closed form and predictions has to be obtained by numerical optimization or Monte-Carlo sampling. Some of the recent supervised parametric learning methods can take advantage of some structure constraints over the target variables. The max margin Markov network [21] trains an SVM classifier with outputs 2 Figure 1: Experiment setup for this study. whose structures are described by graphs. The structured SVM was further extended with high order loss function [20] or models with latent variables [27]. These methods can be viewed as special cases of LTP learning, where general probabilistic models for target variables can be incorporated. 3 General Framework In this section, we describe the general framework of learning with target priors. Specifically, our task is to learn the parameter ? in a parametric family of functions of X, f? (x), to best predict the corresponding target variable y. Both the data and target variable can be of high dimensions. Knowledge about target variable is provided through a target prior model in the form of a parametric probability distribution, p? (y), with model parameter ?. The specific form of p? (y) is determined based on different applications, ranging from simple distributions to more complex models such as Markov random fields. The model parameter ? is estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood log p? (f? (X)). In the following, we apply the LTP learning to unsupervised learning in which no corresponded input and output are available, as well as semi-supervised learning in which part of corresponding outputs are available. For the unsupervised learning, assume we are given a set of outputs y ? RY?m , as well as a set of uncorresponded inputs X ? RX ?n , where Y and X are the dimensionality, and m and n are the temporal length for y and X respectively. This is applicable to the case of BCI where it is easier to gather inputs X or structured targets y than it is to gather corresponded inputs and targets (X, y). In many real BCI applications the input brain signals X are collected only under thoughts without actual body movement y. The body movements could be easily collected when the brain signals are not being recorded. In the problem of pose estimation, it is a tedious work to label poses y on the input images X. In both the finger movement decoding and pose estimation, y and X could be Y?1 extracted from different subjects. A prior model p? (y) is learned from {yi }m i=1 , where yi ? R and ? is parameter of the prior model. Then the function parameter ? is estimated by maximizing n max ? 1X log p? (f? (Xi )), n i=1 (1) where Xi ? RX ?1 . The parameter ? is chosen in the way that the output on the {Xi }ni=1 maximally consistent of the prior distribution p? (y). The setting of semi-supervised learning is slightly different m from unsupervised learning, in which the corresponding input {Xi }m i=1 of the output {yi }i=1 are also given. Then the learning becomes the combination of supervised and unsupervised learning: m min ? n ?X 1 X L(yi ? f? (Xi )) ? log p? (f? (Xi )), m i=1 n i=1 (2) where L is the loss function and ? is a constant representing the tradeoff between the two terms. In eq. 2, the parameter ? is chosen in the way that the outputs not only minimize the loss function on training data, but also make the predicted targets on the unlabeled data comply with the target prior. Next, we adapt unsupervised/semi-supervised learning with LTP to the prediction/inference in two applications, namely, decoding ECoG signal to predict finger movement in BCI and estimation of body poses from videos, where the-state-of-the-art performances are achieved. 4 Finger Movement Decoding in ECoG based BCI The main task in brain-computer interface (BCI) systems is to convert electronic signals recorded from human brain into controlling commands for patients with motor disabilities (e.g., paralysis). Many recent studies in neurobiology have suggested that electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals 3 recorded near the brain surface show strong correlations with limb motions [2, 8]. ECoG signal decoding is the critical step in ECoG based BCI systems, the goal of which is to obtain a functional mapping between the ECoG signals and the kinematic variables (e.g., spatial locations and movement velocities of fingers recorded by a digital glove) [8]. The ECoG decoding problem has been widely solved with supervised parametric learning [26, 8, 25], where corresponded ECoG signals and target kinematic variables are collected from one subject and used to train a parametric regressor. However, the decoder learned from data collected from one subject in a controlled experiment usually has trouble to generalize for the same subject over time and in an open environment (temporal generalization) [18], or to decode signals from other subjects (cross-subject generalization) [24]. The former is due to the strong variances in ECoG signals that are caused by other concurrent brain activities, and the latter is due to the difference in shape and volume of the brains for different subjects. These limitations are regarded as the most challenging issues in current BCI systems [7]. There have been several works addressing these issues. For instance, to improve the generalization performance across trials, several adaptive classification methods are proposed [18], i.e., updating the LDA with labeled feed back data. To generalize better across subjects, a collaborative paradigm was proposed to integrating information from multiple subjects [24]. In [17] it is investigated that certain spectral features of ECoG signals can be used across subjects to classify movements. However, these methods do not provide satisfactory solutions since the central challenge in extending the parametric decoder across time and subject is that the conventional parametric learning approach, on which all these methods are based, relies on training data to obtain information for learning the regressor, which in these cases are difficult to collect. At the same time, in BCI it is typically much easier to gather samples of uncorresponded target variables, i.e, traces of finger movements recorded by digital gloves, than it is to gather corresponding pairs of training samples. Thus in this work, we propose to improve the temporal and cross-subject generalization of BCI decoders with the learning with target priors framework. In the first step, we obtain a parametric target prior model using uncorresponded samples of the target data, in this case, the traces of finger positions. In the second step, we estimate a linear decoding function using the general method described in Section 3. Let us first define notations that are to be used subsequently: we use a linear decoding function, as: f? (x) = XT ?, to predict the traces of finger movements y as target variable. Specifically, we define y ? RY where Y corresponds to the number of samples in the finger traces. X ? RL?Y is a matrix whose columns are a subset of ECoG signal features of length L. The model parameter ? ? RL is a vector. Linear decoding function are widely used in BCI decoding [1] for its simplicity and run-time efficiency in constructing hardware based BCI system. 4.1 Target Prior Model We use the Gaussian-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine (GB-RBM) [14]: p? (y) = P ?E? (y,h) 1 , where Z is the normalizing constant, and h ? {0, 1}H are binary hidden varihe Z ables, as the parametric target prior model. The pdf is defined in terms of the joint energy function over y and h, as: E? (y, h) = Y X (yi ? ci )2 i=1 2 Y,H X ? i=1,j=1 Wij yi hj ? H X bj hj . j=1 where Wij is the interaction strength between the hidden node hi and visible node yj . c and b are the bias for the visible layer and hidden layer, respectively. The target variable y is normalized to have zero mean and unit standard variance. The parameters in this model, (W, c, b), are collectively represented with ?. Direct maximum likelihood training of GB-RBM is intractable due to the normalizing factor Z, so we use contrastive divergence [6] to estimate ? from data. 4.2 Learning Regressor Parameter ? With training data and the GB-RBM as the target prior model, we optimize the objective function of LTP in Eq.(1) or (2) for parameters ?. With the linear decodingPfunction and squared loss function, m 2 T the gradient of the first term of Eq.(2) can be computed as ? m i=1 Xi (yi ? Xi ?). The derivative of ? over log-likelihood of XT ? with regards to the prior model can be computed, as ? log p? (XT ?) X ??E(XT ?, h) = p? (h|XT ?) . ?? ?? h 4 (3) Plugging the energy function E into Eq.(3), we can simplify it to X ? log p? (XT ?) = X(XT ? ? c) + XWT p? (h|XT ?)h, ?? (4) h P where h p? (h|XT ?)h using the property that the elements of h are independent P of GB-RBM T given XT ?. Specifically, assume g = p (h|X ?)h, then gi = ?(Wi XT ?), where Wi is h ? the ith row of W and ? is the logistic function ?(x) = 1/(1 + exp (?x)). The expectation of the derivative over all sequences, composed of Y successive samples in the training data, can be ? log p? (XT ?) expressed as h idata where < ? >data stands for expectation over the data. ?? 4.3 Experimental Settings The ECoG data and target finger movement variables are collected from a clinical setting based on five subjects (A-E) who underwent brain surgeries [8]. Each subject had a 48- or 64- electrode grid placed over the cortex. During the experiment, the subjects are required to repeatedly flex and extend specific individual fingers according to visual cues on a video screen. The experiment setup is shown in Fig. 1. The data collection for each subject lasted 10 minutes, which yielded an average of 30 trials for each finger. The flexion of each finger was measured by a data glove. For each channel, features are extracted based on signal power of three bands (1-60Hz, 60-100Hz, 100-200Hz) [2], which results in 144 or 204 features for subjects with 48 or 64 channels, respectively. 4.4 Learning Target Prior Model and Decoding Function The training data for the prior model p? (y) are either from other subjects or from the same subject but were collected at a different time and do not have correspondence with the training input data. Here we consider the finger moving traces only composed of flexion and extension as in Fig. 2(A). This simplified model is still practically useful since we can first classify the trace into movement state or rest state and then apply the corresponding regressor for each state [4]. Each subject has around 1400 samples. We model the finger movement trace using the GB-RBM with 64 hidden nodes and 12 visible nodes, which is approximately the length of one round extension and flexion. Then, all segments from 12 successive samples in the data are used to train the prior model. NORMALIZED AMPLITUDE NORMALIZED AMPLITUDE The GB-RBM is trained with stochastic gradient decent with a mini-batch size of 25 sub-sequences. We run 5000 epochs with a fixed learning rate 0.001. We first validate the prior model by drawing samples from the learned GB-RBM. Figure 2(B) shows the 9 samples, which seem to capture some important properties of the temporal dynamics of the finger trace. 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 TIME (s) TIME (s) (B) (A) Figure 2: (A) Original trace; (B)samples from GB-RBM. Each sample is a segment with length 12. With the prior model, the paired features/target variables if they exist and unpaired features, on which the expectation of Eq.(4) is calculated, are used to learn the parameter ?. ? is randomly initialized and learned with stochastic gradient decent with the same batch size 25. We run 2000 epochs with fixed learning rate 10?4 . 4.5 Generalization Across Subjects We learn the decoding function for new subjects by deploying the unsupervised LTP learning in Section 3. Even though it is difficult to get the corresponded samples from new subjects, we always have the input ECoG signals, whose features will be used as the input of the unsupervised LTP learning. We compare the unsupervised LTP learning with linear regression [2] in two ways: 1) the linear regression (intra subject) in which the corresponded data and target variables are available. The accuracy of linear regression is calculated based on five fold cross-validation, that is, 4/5 trials (25 trials) are used for training and 1/5 trials (5 trials) are used for testing. 2) the linear regression (inter 5 Table 1: Results on thumb of subjects based on 2 fold cross validation (correlation coefficient). A B C D E Linear R 0.29 0.26 0.06 0.10 0.11 Semisupervised LTP 0.38 0.42 0.13 0.15 0.12 subject) trained on the one subject and tested on other subjects. The results for inter subjects are calculated based on 5 fold cross-validation (each time one subject is used for training and the model is tested on other four subjects). Linear regression is trained on pairs of features and targets while LTP only uses the targets to train the prior model. For the linear regression trained and tested on different subjects, the channels across subjects are aligned by the 3-d position of the sensors. Correlation Coefficient Figure 3(A) shows the performance comparison of the three models. Note that the performances of the unsupervised LTP learning is on par with those of the linear regression (intra) on subject A, B, C and D, which suggests that the decoder learned by unsupervised LTP learning can generalize across subjects. Figure 3(B) and (C) shows two examples of prediction results from the unsupervised LTP learning. On the other hand, not surprisingly, the performances of linear regression (inter subjects) suggest that it cannot be extended across subjects, which is due to brain difference for different subjects as stated above. The generalization ability gained by unsupervised LTP learning is mainly because it directly learns decoding functions on the new subject without using brain signal from existing subjects, which are believed to change dramatically among subjects. One thing we noticed is that the unsupervised LTP learning does not work well on subject E, which is because the thumb movement speed of subject E is much slower than subject A, on which the prior model is trained. This suggests that the quality of the target prior model is critical for the performance. Linear Regression(intra subject) Unsupervised LTP (inter subject) Linear Regression (inter subject) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 ?0.1 4 1.5 3 1 2 0.5 1 0 0 -0.5 -1 A B C D E -1 -2 0 (A) 50 100 150 (B) 200 250 -1.5 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 (C) Figure 3: (A) Comparison among three models across subjects; (B) Sample results for subject A; (C) Sample results for subject B. The dot line is the ground truth and the solid line is the prediction 4.6 Online Learning for Decoding Functions In the next set of experiment, we use the learning with target priors framework for learning decoding functions that generalize over time. This experiment is performed for each subject individually. For n each subject, assume {Xi , yi }m i=1 be the training data in the current trial and {Xj }j=1 be the new m samples unknown in training. We first train the prior model on {yi }i=1 . Then parameter ? is learned using the semi-supervised learning in section 3. The new samples come sequentially and thus we want the decoding function to be online updated. The parameter ? is not updated for every new coming sample, but every batch of data X ? RL?Y . Here we give a brief description of the online batch updating method. For the start, the parameter ? is learned from the corresponding pairs of samples {Xi , yi }m i=1 . Then the decoding function with parameter ? is used to decode the first batch {Xj }Y . After the batch {Xj }Y j=1 i=1 is decoded, Y {Xj }j=1 , not including the predicted target variables, is included as part of the unlabeled training data to update the parameter ? by the semi-supervised learning in section 3. Then the updated ? is used to decode the second batch {Xj }2Y j=Y+1 and the process loops. In summary, after the new coming batch is decoded using the current parameter ?, then it is included as training data to update parameter ?. Generally, we are trying to maximally use the ?seen? data to get the decoding function prepared for the ?unseen? coming samples. The batch size Y is chosen to be 12. The model is tested on the thumb of five subjects based on 2 fold cross validation, that is, we treat the first 15 trials as the paired data/target variables and then online test the remaining trials. After that in turn we treat the last 15 trials as the paired data/target variables and use the first 15 trials for online testing. The results in Table 1 show the proposed model with online batch updating can significantly improve the results. This means that by regularizing 6 the new features with the target prior, the semi-supervised learning in Section 3 successfully obtains information from the new features and adapts the decoders well for new coming samples. 5 Pose Estimation from Videos In this section, we apply learning with target priors to the problem of the pose estimation problem, the goal of which is to extract 3D human pose from images or video sequences. We demonstrate LTP by applying it to learn a linear mapping from image features to poses while LTP could be used to learn more sophisticated models. We will show that the algorithms learned by LTP are more generalizable both across subjects and over time on the same subject respectively. In this experiment, we use six walking sequences from CMU MoCap database (http://mocap.cs.cmu.edu). The data are from 3 subjects, with sequences 1 & 2 from the first subject, sequences 3 & 4 from the second subject and sequences 5 & 6 from the third subject. Each sequence consists of about 70 frames. Our task is to estimate the 3-D pose from videos, which is described by 59 dimensional joint angles. The image feature is extracted from the silhouette image at the side view. For each silhouette image we take 10 dimension moment features [23]. We represent the video sequence as {Xi , yi }ni=1 , where X ? R10?n are the image features, y ? R59?n are the joint angles, where n is the length of the sequence and n could be different for different sequences. Instead of directly mapping features to 59 dimensional joint angles, we learn the function which maps the features to the 3 dimensional subspace of joint angles obtained through PCA. Then the original space of joint angles is recovered from the low dimensional subspace. All Algorithm 1 learning with target priors Input: joint angles {yi }ni=1 , test features X? Output: y? corresponding to X? Steps: 1: PCA: y ? EZ, where E ? R59?3 , Z ? R3?n 2: learn prior model p? (y) on Z 3: learn mapping function Z ? = f? (X ? ) using the unsupervised LTP learning in section 3 Output: recover original space y? = EZ ? possible segments composed of successive 60 frames in the sequence are used to train the GB-RBM. So the length of the vector into the GB-RBM is 180 (the subspace is 3 dimension). Many methods have been proposed to address the pose estimation problem, among which sGPLVM [19], FOLS-GPLVM [15] and imCRBM [22] are the three very competitive ones. sGPLVM models a shared latent space by pose and image features through GPLVM, while FOLS-GPLVM models a shared latent space and a private latent space for each part. imCRBM constructs a pose prior for the Bayesian model using the implicit mixture of CRBM. However, Taylor?s work is not comparable to our method, because it requires a generative model to directly map a pose to a silhouette, while our method explicitly uses the extracted moment features, and the comparison here focuses on algorithms instead of features. So we will compare with sGPLVM and FOLS-GPLVM using the same image features. The training of both sGPLVM and FOLS-GPLVM require corresponded images and poses (X, y) while LTP does not require this. For the unsupervised LTP learning, the target prior model is trained on the subspace of the joint angles {yi }ni=1 on sequence 1 and tested on the features of all 6 sequences. The implementation details are shown in algorithm 1. Except for sGPLVM and FOLS-GPLVM, the results are also compared with ridge regression. Ridge regression, sGPLVM and FOLS-GPLVM are trained on the first sequence with paired samples {Xi , yi }ni=1 and tested on all the 6 sequences. The implementation of ridge regression is similar to that in algorithm 1, the only difference is that the mapping from features to the PCA subspace is through ridge regression. The results are measured in terms of mean absolute joint angle error and are shown in table 2. We can see that when testing on the sequence from the same subject (sequence 2), unsupervised LTP learning is not the best. In contrast, when testing on the sequences from subjects B and C, unsupervised LTP learning achieves the best results, which is slightly better than sGPLVM. Considering that only linear dimension reduction and linear function are assumed for unsupervised LTP learning and paired samples are not required, unsupervised LTP learning is even more competitive. FOLS-GPLVM does not perform well on this data set, which is probably due to limited training samples. Thus the experiments demonstrate that the algorithm learned by unsupervised 7 Table 2: Train prior model on the first sequence and test on all with mean absolute joint angle error. Subject A B Sequence Num 1 2 3 4 Ridge Regression 2.1 4.8 8.3 8.5 sGPLVM ? 3.1 5.6 6.1 FOLS-GPLVM ? 5.3 6.5 6.4 Unsupervised LTP 3.0 4.8 5.3 6.1 sequences. Results are measured C 5 10.7 3.0 3.3 2.9 6 10.7 3.1 4.0 2.9 Table 3: For each subject, train on the first sequence and test on the second sequence. Results are measured with absolute joint angle error. Subject A B C Ridge Regression 4.8 5.3 3.1 sGPLVM 3.1 5.3 3.0 FOLS-GPLVM 5.3 5.8 3.8 Semi-supervised LTP 2.87 3.97 2.33 LTP learning in section 3 can generalize well across subjects. The reason that ridge regression, sGPLVM and FOLS-GPLVM do not generalize well is that the relations between poses and images are solely learned from corresponded poses and images, and these relations may have difficulty to hold for the new subjects due to may factors (i.e, the video for the new subject is recorded from a slightly different angle). LTP avoids this problem by learning the relations using the generalizable prior distribution over the targets and the images from the new subjects. We further demonstrate that the algorithm learned through semi-supervised learning in section 3 generalizes well across time for the same subject. In this experiment, for each subject we treat the first sequence as the paired samples {Xi , yi }m i=1 and estimate the 3-D pose of the second sequence {Xi }nj=1 . The prior model is trained on the joint angles of the first sequence {yi }m i=1 . The algorithm is similar to that in algorithm 1 except for replacing unsupervised LTP learning with semi-supervised learning. The results in table 3 show that the semi-supervised learning in section 3 significantly outperforms three other methods. 6 Conclusion and Discussion In this work, we describe a new learning scheme for parametric learning, known as learning with target priors, that uses a prior model over the target variables and a set of uncorresponded data in training. Compared to the conventional (semi)supervised learning approach, LTP can make efficient use of prior knowledge of the target variables in the form of probabilistic distributions, and thus removes/reduces the reliance on training data in learning. Compared to the Bayesian approach, the learned parametric regressor in LTP can be more efficiently implemented and deployed in tasks where running efficiency is critical, such as on-line BCI signal decoding. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of generalization on parametric regression tasks for BCI signal decoding and pose estimation from video. There are several extensions of this work we would like to further pursue. First, in the current work we only use a simple target prior model in the form of GB-RBM. There are, however, more flexible probabilistic models, such as Markov random fields or dynamic Bayesian networks, that can better represent statistical properties in the target variables. Therefore, we would like to incorporate such models into LTP learning to further improve the performance. Second, we would like to investigate the connection between conventional capacity control methods (e.g., max margin or regularization) with LTP learning. This has the potential to unify and shed light on the deeper relation among different learning methodologies. Last, we would also like to use LTP learning with nonlinear decoding functions. Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank Jixu Chen for providing the motion capture data and feature extraction code. Zuoguan Wang and Qiang Ji are supported in part by a grant from US Army Research Office (W911NF-08-1-0216 (GS)) through Albany Medical College. Gerwin Schalk is supported by US Army Research Office (W911NF-08-1-0216 (GS)) and W911NF-07-10415 (GS), and the NIH (EB006356(GS) and EB000856 (GS)). Siwei Lyu is supported by an NSF CAREER Award (IIS-0953373). 8 References [1] Bashashati, Ali, Fatourechi, Mehrdad, Ward, Rabab K., and Birch, Gary E. A survey of signal processing algorithms in brain-computer interfaces based on electrical brain signals. J. Neural Eng., 4, June 2007. [2] Bougrain, Laurent and Liang, Nanying. Band-specific features improve Finger Flexion Prediction from ECoG. In Jornadas Argentinas sobre Interfaces Cerebro Computadora - JAICC, Paran`a, Argentine, 2009. [3] Chang, Mingwei, Ratinov, Lev, and Roth, Dan. Guiding semi-supervision with constraintdriven learning. In Proc. of the Annual Meeting of the ACL, 2007. [4] Flamary, R?emi and Rakotomamonjy, Alain. Decoding finger movements from ECoG signals using switching linear models. Technical report, September 2009. [5] Ganchev, Kuzman, Graca, Joao, Gillenwater, Jennifer, and Taskar, Ben. Posterior regularization for structured latent variable models. JMLR, 11(July):2001?2049, 2010. [6] Hinton, Geoffrey. Training products of experts by minimizing contrastive divergence. Neural Computation, 14(8):2002, Aug 2000. [7] Krusienski, Dean J, Grosse-Wentrup, Moritz, Galn, Ferran, Coyle, Damien, Miller, Kai J, Forney, Elliott, and Anderson, Charles W. Critical issues in state-of-the-art brain-computer interface signal processing. Journal of Neural Engineering, 8(2):025002, 2011. [8] Kub?anek, J, Miller, K J, Ojemann, J G, Wolpaw, J R, and Schalk, G. Decoding flexion of individual fingers using electrocorticographic signals in humans. J Neural Eng, 6(6):066001? 066001, Dec 2009. [9] Lafferty, John. Conditional random fields: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data. In NIPS, pp. 282?289. Morgan Kaufmann, 2001. [10] Lefort, Riwal, Fablet, Ronan, and Boucher, Jean-Marc. Weakly supervised classification of objects in images using soft random forests. In ECCV, pp. 185?198, 2010. [11] Liang, Percy, Jordan, Michael I., and Klein, Dan. Learning from measurements in exponential families. In ICML ?09, pp. 641?648, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM. [12] Mann, Gideon S. and McCallum, Andrew. Simple, robust, scalable semi-supervised learning via expectation regularization. In ICML, pp. 593?600, 2007. [13] Mann, Gideon S. and Mccallum, Andrew. Generalized expectation criteria for semi-supervised learning of conditional random fields. In ACL?08, pp. 870?878, 2008. [14] Mohamed, A., Dahl, G., and Hinton, G. Acoustic modeling using deep belief networks. Audio, Speech, and Language Processing, IEEE Transactions on, PP(99):1, 2011. [15] Salzmann, Mathieu, Henrik, Carl, Raquel, Ek, and Darrell, Urtasun Trevor. Factorized orthogonal latent spaces. JMLR, 9:701?708, 2010. [16] Schapire, Robert E., Rochery, Marie, Rahim, Mazin G., and Gupta, Narendra. Incorporating prior knowledge into boosting. In ICML, 2002. [17] Shenoy, P., Miller, K.J., Ojemann, J.G., and Rao, R.P.N. Generalized features for electrocorticographic bcis. Biomedical Engineering, IEEE Transactions on, 55(1), jan. 2008. [18] Shenoy, Pradeep, Krauledat, Matthias, Blankertz, Benjamin, Rao, Rajesh P. N., and M?uller, Klaus-Robert. Towards adaptive classification for BCI. Journal of Neural Engineering, 2006. [19] Shon, Aaron P., Grochow, Keith, Hertzmann, Aaron, and Rao, Rajesh P. N. Learning shared latent structure for image synthesis and robotic imitation. In NIPS, pp. 1233?1240, 2006. [20] Tarlow, Daniel and S. Zemel, Richard. Structured output learning with high order loss functions. AISTATS, 2012. [21] Taskar, Ben, Guestrin, Carlos, and Koller, Daphne. Max-margin markov networks. In NIPS. MIT Press, 2003. [22] Taylor, G.W., Sigal, L., Fleet, D.J., and Hinton, G.E. Dynamical binary latent variable models for 3d human pose tracking. In CVPR, pp. 631 ?638, June 2010. [23] Tian, Tai-Peng, Li, Rui, and Sclaroff, S. Articulated pose estimation in a learned smooth space of feasible solutions. In CVPR, pp. 50, June 2005. [24] Wang, Yijun and Jung, Tzyy-Ping. A collaborative brain-computer interface for improving human performance. PLoS ONE, 6(5):e20422, 05 2011. [25] Wang, Zuoguan, Ji, Qiang, Miller, Kai J., and Schalk, Gerwin. Decoding finger flexion from electrocorticographic signals using a sparse gaussian process. In ICPR, pp. 3756?3759, 2010. [26] Wang, Zuoguan, Schalk, Gerwin, and Ji, Qiang. Anatomically constrained decoding of finger flexion from electrocorticographic signals. In NIPS, 2011. [27] Yu, C.-N. and Joachims, T. Learning structural SVMs with latent variables. In ICML, 2009. [28] Zhu, Xiaojin. Semi-supervised learning literature survey, 2006. URL http://pages.cs. wisc.edu/?jerryzhu/pub/ssl_survey.pdf. 9
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A Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network David Montana Bolt Beranek and Newman Inc. 10 Moulton Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Abstract The Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) algorithm represents the likelihood function of a given class as the sum of identical, isotropic Gaussians. In practice, PNN is often an excellent pattern classifier, outperforming other classifiers including backpropagation. However, it. is not. robust with respect to affine transformations of feature space, and this can lead to poor performance on certain data. We have derived an extension of PNN called Weighted PNN (WPNN) which compensates for this flaw by allowing anisotropic Gaussians, i.e. Gaussians whose covariance is not a multiple of the identity matrix. The covariance is optimized using a genetic algorithm, some interesting features of which are its redundant, logarithmic encoding and large population size. Experimental results validate our claims. 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROBABILISTIC NEURAL NETWORKS (PNN) PNN (Specht 1990) is a pattern classification algorithm which falls into the broad class of "nearest-neighbor-like" algorithms. It is called a "neural network" because of its natural mapping onto a two-layer feedforward network. It works as follows. Let the exemplars from class i be the k-vectors iT} for j = 1, ... , Ni. Then, the likelihood function for class i is 1 N, Li(i) = - - - - _ ""' e-(x-xj)2/ u (1) Ni(27r(j)k/2 ~ 1110 A Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network class B class A class B (b) (a) Figure 1: PNN is not robust with respect to affine transformations of feature space. Originally (a), A2 is closer to its classmate Al than to B 1 ; however, after a simple affine transformation (b), A2 is closer to B 1 ? and the conditional probability for class i is M Pi(i) = Li(i)/ L Lj(i) (2) j=l Note that the class likelihood functions are sums of identical isotropic Gaussians centered at the exemplars. The single free parameter of this algorithm is u, the variance of the Gaussians (the rest of the terms in the likelihood functions are determined directly from the training data). Hence, training a PNN consists of optimizing u relative to some evaluation criterion, typically the number of classification errors during cross-validation (see Sections 2.1 and 3). Since the search space is one-dimensional, the search procedure is trivial and is often performed by hand. 1.2 THE PROBLEM WITH PNN The main drawback of PNN and other "nearest-neighbor-like" algorithms is that they are not robust with respect to affine transformations (i.e., transformations of the form x 1--+ Ax + b) of feature space. (Note that in theory affine transformations should not affect the performance of backpropagation, but the results of Section 3 show that this is not true in practice.) Figures 1 and 2 depict examples of how affine transformations of feature space affect classification performance. In Figures la and 2a, the point A2 is closer (using Euclidean distance) to point A l , which is also from class A, than to point B 1 , which is from class B. Hence, with a training set consisting of the exemplars Al and B 1 , PNN would classify A2 correctly. Figures Ib and 2b depict the feature space after affine transformations. In both cases, A2 is closer to Bl than to Al and would hence be classified incorrectly. For the example of Figure 2, the transformation matrix A is not diagonal (i.e., the principle axes of the transformation are not the coordinate axes), and the adverse effects of this transformation cannot be undone by any affine transformation with diagonal A. This problem has motivated us to generalize the PNN algorithm in such a way that it is robust with respect to affine transformations of the feature space. 1111 1112 Montana A2 class A class~Bl (b) (a) Figure 2: The principle axes of the affine transformation do not necessarily correspond with the coordinate axes. 1.3 A SOLUTION: WEIGHTED PNN (WPNN) This flaw of nearest-neighbor-like algorithms has been recognized before, and there have been a few proposed solutions. They all use what Dasarathy (1991) calls "modified metrics", which are non-Euclidean distance measures in feature space. All the approaches to modified metrics define criteria which the chosen metric should optimize. Some criteria allow explicit derivation of the new metrics (Short and Fukunuga 1981; Fukunuga and Flick 1984) . However, the validity of these derivations relies on there being a very large number of exemplars in the training set. A more recent set of approaches (Atkeson 1991; Kelly and Davis 1991) (i) use criteria which measure the performance on the training set using leaving-oneout cross-validation (see (Stone 1974) and Section 2.1), (ii) restrict the number of parameters of the metric to increase statistical significance, and (iii) optimize the parameters of the metric using non-linear search techniques. For his technique of "locally weighted regression", Atkeson (1991) uses an evaluation criterion which is the sum of the squares of the error using leaving-one-out. His metric has the form d2 = Wl(Xl-Yl?+ ... +Wk(Xk-Yk)2, and hence has k free parameters WI, ... , Wk. He uses Levenberg-Marquardt to optimize these parameters with respect to the evaluation criterion. For their Weighted K-Nearest Neighbors (WKNN) algorithm, Kelly and Davis (1991) use an evaluation criterion which is the total number of incorrect classifications under leaving-one-out. Their metric is the same as Atkeson's, and their optmization is done with a genetic algorithm. We use an approach similar to that of Atkeson (1991) and Kelly and Davis (1991) to make PNN more robust with respect to affine transformations. Our approach, called Weighted PNN (WPNN), works by using anisotropic Gaussians rather than the isotropic Gaussians used by PNN. An anisotropic Gaussian has the form 1 (i i ) T ~ -1 (i i ) Th . ~ . t' d fi . t k x k (271')Jc/2(det ~)1/2 e- - 0 0 ? e covarIance LJ IS a nonnega Ive- e m e symmetric matrix. Note that ~ enters into the exponent of the Gaussian so as to define a new distance metric, and hence the use of anisotropic Gaussians to extend PNN is analogous to the use of modified metrics to extend other nearest-neighborlike algorithms. The likelihood function for class i is . _ _ I N? '"'" _(i_x;)TE-l(i_xj) L,(x) - Ni(271")kI2(det~)1/2 f;;:e (3) A Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network and the conditional probability is still as given in Equation 2. Note that when E is a multiple of the identity, i.e. E = (J'I, Equation 3 reduces to Equation 1. Section 2 describes how we select the value of E. To ensure good generalization, we have so far restricted ourselves to diagonal covariances (and thus metrics of the form used by Atkeson (1991) and Kelly and Davis (1991). This reduces the number of degrees of freedom of the covariance from k( k + 1) /2 to k. However, this restricted set of covariances is not sufficiently general to solve all the problems of PNN (as demonstrated in Section 3), and we therefore in Section 2 hint at some modifications which would allow us to use arbitrary covarIances. 2 OPTIMIZING THE COVARIANCE We have used a genetic algorithm (Goldberg 1988) to optimize the covariance of the Gaussians. The code we used was a non-object-oriented C translation of the OOGA (Object-Oriented Genetic Algorithm) code (Davis 1991) . This code preserves the features of OOGA including arbitrary encodings, exponential fitness, steady-state replacement, and adaptive operator probabilities. We now describe the distinguishing features of our genetic algorithm: (1) the evaluation function (Section 2.1), (2) the genetic encoding (Section 2.2), and (3) the population size (Section 2.3). 2.1 THE EVALUATION FUNCTION To evaluate the performance of a particular covariance matrix on the training set, we use a technique called "leaving-one-out", which is a special form of cross-validation (Stone 1974). One exemplar at a time is withheld from the training set, and we then determine how well WPNN with that covariance matrix classifies the withheld exemplar. The full evaluation is the sum of the evaluations on the individual exemplars. For the exemplar X}, let lq(x}) for q = 1, ... , M denote the class likelihoods obtained upon withholding this exemplar and applying Equation 3, and let Pq (?) be the probabilities obtained from these likelihoods via Equation 2. Then, we define the performance as M E= N, 2:2:?(1- Pi(X;?2 + 2:(Pq(X;?2) i=l j=l (4) q# We have incorporated two heuristics to quickly identify covariances which are clearly bad and give them a value of 00, the worst possible score. This greatly speeds up the optimization process because many of the generated covariances can be eliminated this way (see Section 2.3) . The first heuristic identifies covariances which are too "small" based on the condition that, for some exemplar x} and all q = 1, ... M, lq (x}) = 0 to within the precision of IEEE double-precision floating-point format. In this case, the probabilities Pq (X1) are not well-defined. (When E is this "small" , WPNN is approximately equivalent to WKNN with k = 1, and if such a small E is indeed required, then the WKNN algorithm should be used instead.) 1113 1114 Montana The second heuristic identifies covariances which are too "big" in the too many exemplars contribute significantly to the likelihood functions. observations and theoretical arguments show that PNN (and WPNN) when only a small fraction of the exemplars contribute significantly. reject a particular E if, for any exemplar xJ, sense that Empirical work best Hence, we (5) Here, P is a parameter which we chose for our experiments to equal four. Note: If we wish to improve the generalization by discarding some of the degrees of freedom of the covariance (which we will need to do when we allow non-diagonal covariances), we should modify the evaluation function by subtracting off a term which is montonically increasing with the number of degrees of freedom discarded. 2.2 THE GENETIC ENCODING Recall from Section 1.3 that we have presently restricted the covariance to be diagonal. Hence, the set of all possible covariances is k-dimensional, where k is the dimension ofthe feature space. We encode the covariances as k+l integers (ao, ... , ak), where the ai's are in the ranges (ao)min ::; ao ::; (ao)max and 0 ::; ai ::; amax for i = 1, ... , k. The decoding map is (6) We observe the following about this encoding. First, it is a "logarithmic encoding" , i.e. the encoded parameters are related logarithmically to the original parameters. This provides a large dynamic range without the sacrifice of sufficient resolution at any scale and without making the search space unmanageably large. The constants C 1 and C 2 determine t.he resolution, while the constants (aO)min, (ao)max, and amax det.ermine t.he range. Second, it. is possibly a "redundant" encoding, i.e. there may be multiple encodings of a single covariance. We use this redundant encoding, despite the seeming paradox, t.o reduce the size of t.he search space. The ao term encodes the size of the Gaussian, roughly equivalent to (J' in PNN. The other aj's encode the relative weighting of the various dimensions. If we dropped the ao term, the other aj terms would have to have larger ranges to compensate, thus making the search space larger. Note: If we wish to improve the generalization by discarding some of the degrees of freedom of the covariance, we need to allow all the entries besides ao to take on the value of 00 in addition to the range of values defined above. When aj = 00, its corresponding entry in the covariance matrix is zero and is hence discarded. 2.3 POPULATION SIZE For their success, genetic algorithms rely on having multiple individuals with partial information in the population. The problem we have encountered is that the ratio of the the area of the search space with partial information to the entire search space is small. In fact, with our very loose heuristics, on Dataset 1 (see Section 3) about A Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network 90% of the randomly generated individuals of the initial population evaluated to 00. In fact, we estimate very roughly that only 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 randomly generated individuals contain partial information. To ensure that the initial population has multiple individuals with partial information requires a population size of many hundreds, and we conservatively used a population size of 1600. Note that with such a large population it is essential to use a steady-state genetic algorithm (Davis 1991) rather than generational replacement. 3 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS We have performed a series of experiments to verify our claims about WPNN. To do so, we have constructed a sequence of four datasets designed to illustrate the shortcomings of PNN and how WPNN in its present form can fix some of these shortcomings but not others. Dataset 1 is a training set we generated during an effort to classify simulated sonar signals. It has ten features, five classes, and 516 total exemplars. Dataset 2 is the same as Dataset 1 except that we supplemented the ten features of Dataset 1 with five additional features, which were random numbers uniformly distributed between zero and one (and hence contained no information relevant to classification), thus giving a total of 15 features. Dataset 3 is the same as Dataset 2 except with ten (rather than five) irrelevant features added and hence a total of 20 features. Like Dataset 3, Dataset 4 has 20 features. It is obtained from Dataset 3 as follows. Pair each of the true features with one of the irrelevant features. Call the feature values of the ith pair Ii and gi. Then, replace these feature values with the values 0.5(1i + gd and 0.5(1i - gi + 1), thus mixing up the relevant features with the irrelevant features via linear combinations . To evaluate the performance of different pattern classification algorithms on these four datasets, we have used lO-fold cross-validation (Stone 1974). This involves splitting each dataset into ten disjoint subsets of similar size and similar distribution of exemplars by class. To evaluate a particular algorithm on a dataset requires ten training and test runs, where each subset is used as the test set for the algorithm trained on a training set consisting of the other nine subsets. The pattern classification algorithms we have evaluated are backpropagation (with four hidden nodes), PNN (with (f = 0.05), WPNN and CART. The results of the experiments are shown in Figure 3. Note that the parenthesized quantities denote errors on the training data and are not compensated for the fact that each exemplar of the original dataset is in nine of the ten training sets used for cross-validation. We can draw a number of conclusions from these results. First, the performance of PNN on Datasets 2-4 clearly demonstrates the problems which arise from its lack of robustness with respect to affine transformations of feature space. In each case, there exists an affine transformation which makes the problem essentially equivalent to Dataset 1 from the viewpoint of Euclidean distance, but the performance is clearly very different. Second, WPNN clearly eliminates this problem with PNN for Datasets 2 and 3 but not for Dataset 4. This points out both the progress we have made so far in using WPNN to make PNN more robust and the importance of extending the WPNN algorithm to allow non-diagonal covariances. Third, although backpropagation is in theory transparent to affine transformations of feature space (because the first layer of weights and biases implements an arbitrary affine 1115 1116 Montana ~ 1 2 4 3 Alaorithm 8ackprop 11 (69) 16 (51) 20 (27) 13 (64) PNN 9 94 109 29 WPNN 10 11 11 25 CART 14 17 18 53 Figure 3: Performance on the four datasets of backprop, CART, PNN and WPNN (parenthesized quantities are training set errors). transformation), in practice affine transformations effect its performance. Indeed, Dataset 4 is obtained from Dataset 3 by an affine transformation, yet backpropagation performs very differently on them. Backpropagation does better on the training sets for Dataset 3 than on the training sets for Dataset 4 but does better on the test sets of Dataset 4 than the test sets of Dataset 3. This implies that for Dataset 4 during the training procedure backpropagation is not finding the globally optimum set of weights and biases but is missing in such a way that improves its generalization. 4 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK We have demonstrated through both theoretical arguments and experiments an inherent flaw of PNN, its lack or robustness with respect to affine transformations of feature space. To correct this flaw, we have proposed an extension of PNN, called WPNN, which uses anisotropic Gaussians rather than the isotropic Gaussians used by PNN. Under the assumption that the covariance of the Gaussians is diagonal, we have described how to use a genetic algorithm to optimize the covariance for optimal performance on the training set. Experiments have shown that WPNN can partially remedy the flaw with PNN. What remains to be done is to modify the optimization procedure to allow arbitrary (i.e., non-diagonal) covariances. The main difficulty here is that the covariance matrix has a large number of degrees offreedom (k(k+l)/2, where k is the dimension of feature space), and we therefore need to ensure that the choice of covariance is not overfit to the data. We have presented some general ideas on how to approach this problem, but a true solution still needs to be developed. Acknowledgements This work was partially supported by DARPA via ONR under Contract N0001489-C-0264 as part of the Artifical Neural Networks Initiative. A Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network Thanks to Ken Theriault for his useful comments. References C.G. Atkeson. (1991) Using locally weighted regression for robot learning. Proceedings of the 1991 IEEE Conference on Robotics and Automation, pp. 958-963. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press. B.V. Dasarathy. (1991) Nearest Neighbor (NN) Norms: NN Pattern Classification Techniques. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press. L. Davis. (1991) Handbook of Genetic Algorithms. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. K. Fukunaga and T.T. Flick. (1984) An optimal global nearest neighbor metric. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, Vol. PAMI-6, No.3, pp. 314-318. D. Goldberg . (1988) Genetic Algorithms in Machine Learning, Optimization and Search. Redwood City, CA: Addison-Wesley. J.D. Kelly, Jr. and L. Davis. (1991) Hybridizing the genetic algorithm and the k nearest neighbors classification algorithm. Proceedings of the Fourth Internation Conference on Genetic Algorithms, pp. 377-383. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann. R.D. Short and K. Fukunaga. (1981) The optimal distance measure for nearest neighbor classification. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, Vol. IT-27, No. 5, pp. 622-627. D.F. Specht. (1990) Probabilistic neural networks. Neural Networks, vol. 3, no. 1, pp.109-118. M. Stone. (1974) Cross-validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. 36, pp. 111-147. 1117
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A Marginalized Particle Gaussian Process Regression Yali Wang and Brahim Chaib-draa Department of Computer Science Laval University Quebec, Quebec G1V0A6 {wang,chaib}@damas.ift.ulaval.ca Abstract We present a novel marginalized particle Gaussian process (MPGP) regression, which provides a fast, accurate online Bayesian filtering framework to model the latent function. Using a state space model established by the data construction procedure, our MPGP recursively filters out the estimation of hidden function values by a Gaussian mixture. Meanwhile, it provides a new online method for training hyperparameters with a number of weighted particles. We demonstrate the estimated performance of our MPGP on both simulated and real large data sets. The results show that our MPGP is a robust estimation algorithm with high computational efficiency, which outperforms other state-of-art sparse GP methods. 1 Introduction The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method for nonlinear regression. However, the O(n3 ) computational load for training the GP model would severely limit its applicability in practice when the number of training points n is larger than a few thousand [1]. A number of attempts have been made to handle it with a small computational load. One typical method is a sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) [2] that uses a pseudo-input data set with m inputs (m  n) to parameterize the GP predictive distribution to reduce the computational burden. Then a sparse spectrum Gaussian process (SSGP) [3] was proposed to further improve the performance of SPGP while retaining the computational efficiency by using a stationary trigonometric Bayesian model with m basis functions. However, both SPGP and SSGP learn hyperparameters offline by maximizing the marginal likelihood before making the inference. They would take a risk to fall in the local optimum. Another recent model is a Kalman filter Gaussian process (KFGP) [4] which reduces computation load by correlating function values of data subsets at each Kalman filter iteration. But it still causes underfitting or overfitting if the hyperparameters are badly learned offline. On the contrary, we propose in this paper an online marginalized particle filter to simultaneously learn the hyperprameters and hidden function values. By collecting small data subsets sequentially, we establish a novel state space model which allows us to estimate the marginal posterior distribution (not the marginal likelihood) of hyperparameters online with a number of weighted particles. For each particle, a Kalman filter is applied to estimate the posterior distribution of hidden function values. We will later explain it in details and show its validity via the experiments on large datasets. 2 Data Construction In practice, the whole training data set is usually constructed by gathering small subsets several times. For the tth collection, the training subset (Xt , yt ) consists of nt input-output pairs: {(x1t , yt1 ), ? ? ? (xnt t , ytnt )}. Each scalar output yti is generated from a nonlinear function f (xit ) of a d-dimensional input vector xit with an additive Gaussian noise N (0, a20 ). All the pairs are separately organized as an input matrix Xt and output vector yt . For simplicity, the whole training data with 1 T collections is symbolized as (X1:T , y1:T ). The goal refers to a regression issue - estimating the function value of f (x) at m test inputs X? = [x1? , ? ? ? xm ? ] given (X1:T , y1:T ). 3 Gaussian Process Regression A Gaussian process (GP) represents a distribution over functions, which is a generalization of the Gaussian distribution to an infinite dimensional function space. Formally, it is a collection of random variables, any finite number of which have a joint Gaussian distribution [1]. Similar to a Gaussian distribution specified by a mean vector and covariance matrix, a GP is fully defined by a mean function m(x) = E[f (x)] and covariance function k(x, x0 ) = E[(f (x) ? m(x))(f (x0 ) ? m(x0 ))]. Here we follow the practical choice that m(x) is set to be zero. Moreover, due to the spatial nonstationary phenomena in the real world, we choose k(x, x0 ) as kSE (x, x0 ) + kN N (x, x0 ) where 0 T 0 kSE = a21 exp[?0.5a?2 2 (x ? x ) (x ? x )] is the stationary squared exponential covariance func?2 T 2 ?1 ?2 T 0 tion, kN N = a3 sin [a4 x ? x ? ((1 + a4 x ? x ?)(1 + a?2 ?0T x ?0 ))?0.5 ] is the nonstationary neural 4 x network covariance function with the augmented input x ? = [1 xT ]T . For simplicity, all the hyperparameters are collected into a vector ? = [a0 a1 a2 a3 a4 ]T . The regression problem could be solved by the standard GP with the following two steps: First, learning ? given (X1:T , y1:T ). One technique is to draw samples from p(?|X1:T , y1:T ) using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [5, 6], another popular way is to maximize the log evidence p(y1:T |X1:T , ?) via a gradient based optimizer [1]. Second, estimating the distribution of the function value p(f (X? )|X1:T , y1:T , X? , ?). From the perspective of GP, a function f (x) could be loosely considered as an infinitely long vector in which each random variable is the function value at an input x, and any finite set of function values is jointly Gaussian distributed. Hence, the joint distribution p(y1:T , f (X? )|X1:T , X? , ?) is a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Then according to the conditional property of Gaussian distribution, p(f (X? )|X1:T , y1:T , X? , ?) is also Gaussian distributed with the following mean vector f?(X? ) and covariance matrix P (X? , X? ) [1, 7]: f?(X? ) = K? (X? , X1:T )[K? (X1:T , X1:T ) + a2 I]?1 y1:T 0 P (X? , X? ) = K? (X? , X? ) ? K? (X? , X1:T )[K? (X1:T , X1:T ) + a20 I]?1 K? (X? , X1:T )T If there are n training inputs and m test inputs then K? (X? , X1:T ) denotes an m ? n covariance matrix in which each entry is calculated by the covariance function k(x, x0 ) with the learned ?. It is similar to construct K? (X1:T , X1:T ) and K? (X? , X? ). 4 Marginalized Particle Gaussian Process Regression Even though GP is an elegant nonparametric method for Bayesian regression, it is commonly infeasible for large data sets due to an O(n3 ) scaling for learning the model. In order to derive a computational tractable GP model which preserves the estimation accuracy, we firstly explore a state space model from the data construction procedure, then propose a marginalized particle filter to estimate the hidden f (X? ) and ? in an online Bayesian filtering framework. 4.1 State Space Model The standard state space model (SSM) consists of the state equation and observation equation. The state equation reflects the Markovian evolution of hidden states (the hyperparamters and function values). For the hidden static hyperparameter ?, a popular method in filtering techniques is to add an artificial evolution using kernel smoothing which guarantees the estimation convergence [8, 9, 10]: ?t = b?t?1 + (1 ? b)??t?1 + st?1 (1) where b = (3? ? 1)/(2?), ? is a discount factor which is typically around 0.95-0.99, ??t?1 is the Monte Carlo mean of ? at t ? 1, and st?1 ? N (0, r2 ?t?1 ), r2 = 1 ? b2 , ?t?1 is the Monte Carlo variance matrix of ? at t ? 1. For hidden function values, we attempt to explore the relation between the (t ? 1)th and tth data subset. For simplicity, we denoted Xtc = Xt ? X? and ftc = f (Xtc ). If c c f (x) ? GP (0, k(x, x0 )), then the prior distribution p(ftc , ft?1 |Xt?1 , Xtc , ?t ) is jointly Gaussian:   c K?t (Xtc , Xtc ) K?t (Xtc , Xt?1 ) c c c c p(ft , ft?1 |Xt?1 , Xt , ?t ) = N (0, ) c c c K?t (Xtc , Xt?1 )T K?t (Xt?1 , Xt?1 ) 2 Then according to the conditional property of Gaussian distribution, we could get where c c c p(ftc |ft?1 , Xt?1 , Xtc , ?t ) = N (G(?t )ft?1 , Q(?t )) (2) c c c G(?t ) = K?t (Xtc , Xt?1 )K??1 (Xt?1 , Xt?1 ) t (3) K?t (Xtc , Xtc ) c c c c K?t (Xtc , Xt?1 )K??1 (Xt?1 , Xt?1 )K?t (Xtc , Xt?1 )T t Q(?t ) = ? (4) This conditional density (2) could be transformed into a linear equation of the function value with an additive Gaussian noise vtf ? N (0, Q(?t )): c ftc = G(?t )ft?1 + vtf (5) Finally, the observation (output) equation could be directly obtained from the tth data collection: yt = Ht ftc + vty (6) where Ht = [Int 0] is an index matrix to make Ht ftc = f (Xt ) since yt is only obtained from the tth training inputs Xt . The noise vty ? N (0, R(?t )) is from the section 2 where R(?t ) = a20,t I. Note that a0 is a fixed unknown hyperparameter. We use the symbol a0,t just because of the consistency with the artificial evolution of ?. To sum up, our SSM is fully specified by (1), (5), (6). 4.2 Bayesian Inference by Marginalized Particle Filter In contrast to the GP regression with a two-step offline inference in section 3, we propose an online filtering framework to simultaneously learn hyperparameters and estimate hidden function values. According to the SSM before, the inference problem refers to compute the posterior distribution p(ftc , ?1:t |X1:t , X? , y1:t ). One technique is MCMC, but MCMC usually suffers from a long convergence time. Hence we choose another popular technique - particle filter. However, for our SSM, the traditional sampling importance resampling (SIR) particle filter will introduce the unnecessary computational load due to the fact that (5) in the SSM is a linear structure given ?t . This inspires us to apply a more efficient marginalized particle filter (also called Rao-Blackwellised particle filter) [9, 11, 12, 13] to deal with the estimation problem by combining Kalman filter into particle filter. Using Bayes rule, the posterior could be factorized as p(ftc , ?1:t |X1:t , X? , y1:t ) = p(?1:t |X1:t , X? , y1:t )p(ftc |?1:t , X1:t , X? , y1:t ) p(?1:t |X1:t , X? , y1:t ) refers to a marginal posterior which could be solved by particle filter. After obtaining the estimation of ?1:t , the second term p(ftc |?1:t , X1:t , X? , y1:t ) could be computed by Kalman filter since ftc is the hidden state in the linear substructure (equation (5)) of SSM. The detailed inference procedure is as follows: First, p(?1:t |X1:t , X? , y1:t ) should be factorized in a recursive form so that it could be applied into sequential importance sampling framework: p(?1:t |X1:t , X? , y1:t ) ? p(yt |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? )p(?t |?t?1 )p(?1:t?1 |X1:t?1 , X? , y1:t?1 ) At each iteration of the sequential importance sampling, the particles for the hyperparameter vector are drawn from the proposal distribution p(?t |?t?1 ) (easily obtained from equation (1)), then the importance weight for each particle at t could be computed according to p(yt |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ). This distribution could be solved analytically: Z p(yt |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) = p(yt , ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? )dftc Z = p(yt |ftc , ?t , Xt , X? )p(ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? )dftc Z c c = N (Ht ftc , R(?t ))N (ft|t?1 , Pt|t?1 )dftc c c = N (Ht ft|t?1 , Ht Pt|t?1 HtT + R(?t )) (7) where p(yt |ftc , ?t , Xt , X? ) follows a Gaussian distribution N (Ht ftc , R(?t )) (refers to equation (6)), c c p(ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) = N (ft|t?1 , Pt|t?1 ) is the prediction step of Kalman filter for ftc which c c is also Gaussian distributed with the predictive mean ft|t?1 and covariance Pt|t?1 . 3 Second, we explain how to compute p(ftc |?1:t , X1:t , X? , y1:t ) using the prediction-update Kalman filter. According to the recursive Bayesian filtering, this posterior could be factorized as: p(ftc |?1:t , X1:t , X? , y1:t ) = p(yt |ftc , ?t , Xt , X? )p(ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) p(yt |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) (8) In the prediction step, the goal is to compute p(ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) which is an integral: Z c c p(ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) = p(ftc , ft?1 |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? )dft?1 Z c c c = p(ftc |ft?1 , ?t , Xt?1:t , X? )p(ft?1 |y1:t?1 , ?1:t?1 , X1:t?1 , X? )dft?1 Z c c c c , Pt?1|t?1 )dft?1 = N (G(?t )ft?1 , Q(?t ))N (ft?1|t?1 c c , G(?t )Pt?1|t?1 G(?t )T + Q(?t )) = N (G(?t )ft?1|t?1 (9) c c where p(ftc |ft?1 , ?t , Xt?1:t , X? ) is directly from (2), and p(ft?1 |y1:t?1 , ?1:t?1 , X1:t?1 , X? ) = c c c ) is the posterior estimation for ft?1 . Since p(ftc |y1:t?1 , ?1:t , X1:t , X? ) could N (ft?1|t?1 , Pt?1|t?1 c c also be expressed as N (ft|t?1 , Pt|t?1 ), then the prediction step is summarized as: c c ft|t?1 = G(?t )ft?1|t?1 , c c Pt|t?1 = G(?t )Pt?1|t?1 G(?t )T + Q(?t ) (10) In the update step, the current observation density p(yt |ftc , ?t , Xt , X? ) = N (Ht ftc , R(?t )) is used c c , Pt|t ) is to correct the prediction. Putting (7) and (9) into (8), p(ftc |?1:t , X1:t , X? , y1:t ) = N (ft|t actually Gaussian distributed with the Kalman Gain ?t where: c c ?t = Pt|t?1 HtT (Ht Pt|t?1 HtT + R(?t ))?1 c c c ft|t = ft|t?1 + ?t (yt ? Ht ft|t?1 ), (11) c c c Pt|t = Pt|t?1 ? ?t Ht Pt|t?1 (12) Finally, the whole algorithm (t = 1, 2, 3, ....) is summarized as follows: ? For i = 1, 2, ...N i ) according to (1) ? Drawing ?ti ? p(?t |??t?1 i ? Using ?t to specify k(x, x0 ) in GP to construct G(?ti ), Q(?ti ), R(?ti ) in (3-4) and (6) c,i c,i c,i c,i ? Kalman Predict: Using f?t?1|t?1 , P?t?1|t?1 into (10) to compute ft|t?1 , Pt|t?1 c,i c,i c,i c,i ? Kalman Update: Using ft|t?1 and Pt|t?1 into (11) and (12) to compute ft|t and Pt|t c,i c,i ? Putting ft|t?1 , Pt|t?1 , R(?ti ) into (7) to compute the importance weight w ?ti PN ? Normalizing the weight: wti = w ?ti /( i=1 w ?ti ) (i = 1, ...N ) ? Hyperparameter and Hidden function value estimation: PN PN c,i c ? c = i=1 wti ft|t ? f?t|t = Ht? f?t|t ??t = i=1 wti ?ti , f?t|t P N c,i c,i c,i wti (P + (f ? f?c )(f ? f?c )T ) ? P? ? = Ht? P? c (Ht? )T P? c = t|t i=1 t|t t|t t|t t|t t|t t|t t|t where Ht? = [0 Im ] is an index matrix to get the function value estimation at X? c,i c,i ? Resampling: For i = 1, ...N , resample ?ti , ft|t , Pt|t with respect to the importance weight i i ?c,i ? c,i ? w to obtain ? , f , P for the next step t t t|t t|t At each iteration, our marginalized particle Gaussian process (MPGP) uses a small training subset to estimate f (X? ) by Kalman filters, and learn hyperparameters online by weighted particles. The computational cost of the marginalized particle filter is governed by O(N T S 3 ) [10] where N is the number of particles, T is the number of data collections, S is the size of each collection. This could largely reduce the computational load. Moreover, the MPGP propagates the previous estimation to improve the current accuracy in the recursive filtering framework. From the algorithm above, we also find that f (X? ) is estimated as a Gaussian mixture at each iteration since each hyperparameter particle accompanies with a Kalman filter for f (X? ). Hence the MPGP could accelerate the 4 4 4 t=10 t=10 2 2 0 0 t=10 10 ?1 0 x 1 ?4 ?2 2 ?1 0 x 1 y 0.6 0.8 (d) ?5 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 x 0 t=50 10 y y y 1 2 0.5 ?4 ?2 ?1 0 x 1 ?0.5 SE?MPGP log(a2) log(a1) SENN?MPGP SENN?MPGP ?1 ?1.5 (i) 0 50 t 0 50 t SENN?MPGP ?0.5 20 30 40 50 t log(a2) log(a1) (n) 10 0 50 t ?3 (o) 0 10 20 30 t 40 50 0 0.2 0.4 SENN?MPGP ?1 0 0 50 t 0 10 20 30 t 40 50 1 ?1.2 SENN?MPGP ?1.4 (m) 100 ?1.6 0 50 t 100 1.5 1 SENN?MPGP ?0.6 SENN?MPGP 0.5 0 ?0.8 (p) ?1 ?2 ?0.4 SENN?MPGP 0.8 ?1 ?0.2 1 0.6 x (l) 100 SE?MPGP ?2 (h) ?5 1 (k) ?1 100 SENN?MPGP 0.8 ?1.5 SE?MPGP ?1 0.6 ?0.5 SE?MPGP 2 SE?MPGP 0 0.4 0 0 0 SENN?MPGP 0.2 (j) ?2 100 2 1 0 0.5 ?0.5 SE?MPGP ?5 2 x 0 0 (g) log(a3) 0 x 0 (f) log(a3) ?1 5 0 ?2 ?4 ?2 t=50 10 5 (e) log(a0) 0.4 log(a4) 0 ?2 log(a0) 0.2 x t=100 2 0 0 log(a4) t=100 ?1 ?5 2 (c) 4 2 ?1 0 (b) 4 y 0 ?2 (a) ?4 ?2 5 y y y 5 ?2 t=10 10 (q) ?1 0 10 20 30 t 40 50 (r) ?0.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 t Figure 1: Estimation result comparison. (a-b) show the estimation for f1 at t = 10 by SE-KFGP (blue line with blue dashed interval in (a)), SE-MPGP (red line with red dashed interval in (a)), SENN-KFGP (blue line with blue dashed interval in (b)), SENN-MPGP (red line with red dashed interval in (b)). The black crosses are the training outputs at t = 10, the black line is the true f (X? ). The denotation of (c-d),(e-f),(g-h) is same as (a-b) except that (c-d) are for f2 at t = 10, (e-f) are for f1 at t = 100, (g-h) are for f2 at t = 50. (i-m), (n-r) are the estimation of the log hyperparameters (log(a0 ) to log(a4 )) for f1 , f2 over time. computational speed, while preserving the accuracy. Additionally, it is worth to mention that the Kalman filter GP (KFGP) [4] is a special case of our MPGP since the KFGP firstly trains the hyperparamter vector offline and uses it to specify the SSM, then estimates p(ftc |?1:t , X1:t , X? , y1:t ) by Kalman filter. But the offline learning procedure in KFGP will either take a long time using a large extra training data or fall into an unsatisfactory local optimum using a small extra training data. In our MPGP, the local optimum could be used as the initial setting of hyperparameters, then the underlying ? could be learned online by the marginalized particle filter to improve the performance. Finally, to avoid confusion, we should clarify the difference between our MPGP and the GP modeled Bayesian filters [14, 15]. The goal of GP modeled Bayesian filters is to use GP modeling for Bayesian filtering, on the contrary, our MPGP is to use Bayesian filtering for GP modeling. 5 Experiments Two Synthetic Datasets: The proposed MPGP is firstly evaluated on two simulated onedimensional datasets. One is a function with a sharp peak which is spatially inhomogeneously smooth [16]: f1 (x) = sin(x) + 2 exp(?30x2 ). For f1 (x), we gather the training data with 100 collections. For each collection, we randomly select 30 inputs from [-2, 2], then calculate their outputs by adding a Gaussian noise N (0, 0.32 ) to their function values. The test input is from -2 to 2 with 0.05 interval. The other function is with a discontinuity [17]: if 0 ? x ? 0.3, f2 (x) = N (x; 0.6, 0.22 )+N (x; 0.15, 0.052 ), if 0.3 < x ? 1, f2 (x) = N (x; 0.6, 0.22 )+N (x; 0.15, 0.052 )+ 4. For f2 (x), we gather the training data with 50 collections. For each collection, we randomly select 60 inputs from [0, 1], then calculate their outputs by adding a Gaussian noise N (0, 0.82 ) to their function values. The test input is from 0 to 1 with 0.02 interval. The first experiment aims to evaluate the estimation performance in comparison of KFGP in [4]. We denote SE-KFGP, SENN-KFGP as KFGP with the covariance function kSE , KFGP with the covariance function kSE + kN N . Similarly, SE-MPGP and SENN-MPGP are MPGP with kSE , 5 2 0.5 0.2 MNLP for f1(x) NMSE for f1(x) MNLP for f2(x) NMSE for f2(x) 0.18 0.4 1 SE?KFGP SENN?KFGP SE?MPGP SE?MPGP 0.12 0.3 SENN?KFGP SENN?MPGP 0.6 1.4 SE?MPGP SENN?KFGP SENN?MPGP SENN?MPGP 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.08 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.4 0 20 40 t 60 80 100 0.1 SENN?MPGP 1.6 SE?KFGP SE?KFGP 0.8 SENN?KFGP SE?MPGP 0.16 0.14 SE?KFGP 1.8 0 10 20 t 30 40 1 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 8 10 12 Number of Particles 14 16 t t Figure 2: The NMSE and MNLP of KFGP and MPGP for f1 , f2 over time. 1.5 60 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP Running Time MNLP NMSE 1 0.095 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 50 0.1 0.5 40 30 20 0.09 10 0.085 2 4 6 8 10 12 Number of Particles 14 0 16 0.4 2 4 6 8 10 12 Number of Particles 14 3 2 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP Running Time 0.3 MNLP 6 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 2.5 0.25 4 40 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 0.35 NMSE 0 16 2 0.2 1.5 30 20 10 0.15 0.1 0 5 10 15 Number of Particles 20 1 0 5 10 15 Number of Particles 20 0 0 5 10 15 Number of Particles 20 Figure 3: The NMSE and MNLP of MPGP as a function of the number of particles. The first row is for f1 , the second row is for f2 . MPGP with kSE + kN N . The number of particles in MPGP is set to 10. The evaluation criterion is the test Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) and the test Mean Negative Log Probability (MNLP) as suggested in [3]. First, it is shown in Figure 1 that the estimation performance for both KFGP and MPGP is getting better and attempts to convergence over time (refers to (a-h)) since the previous estimation would be incorporated into the current estimation in the recursive Bayesian filtering. Second, for both f1 and f2 , the estimation of MPGP is better than KFGP via the NMSE and MNLP comparison in Figure 2. The KFGP uses offline learned hyperparameters all the time. On the contrary, MPGP initializes hyperparameters using the ones by KFGP, then online learns the true hyperparameters (refers to (i-r) in Figure 1). Hence the MNLP of MPGP is much lower than KFGP. Finally, if we only focus on our MPGP, then we could find SENN-MPGP is better than SE-MPGP since SENN-MPGP takes the spatial nonstationary phenomenon into account. The second experiment aims to illustrate the average performance of SE-MPGP and SENN-MPGP when the number of particles increases. For each number of particles, we run the SE-MPGP and SENN-MPGP 5 times and compute the average NMSE and MNLP. From Figure 3, we find: First, with increasing the number of particles, the NMSE and MNLP of SE-MPGP and SENN-MPGP would decrease at the beginning and become convergence while the running time increases over time. The reason is that the estimation accuracy and computational load of particle filters will increase when the number of particles increases. Second, the average performance of SENN-MPGP is better than SE-MPGP since it captures the spatial nonstationarity, but SENN-MPGP needs more running time since the size of the hyperparameter vector to be inferred will increase. The third experiment aims to compare our MPGP with the benchmarks. The state-of-art sparse GP methods we choose are: sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) [2] and sparse spectrum Gaussian process (SSGP) [3]. Moreover, we also want to examine the robustness of our MPGP since we should clarify whether the good estimation of our MPGP heavily depends on the order of training data collection. Hence, we randomly interrupt the order of training subsets we used before, then implement SPGP with 5 pseudo inputs (5-SPGP), SSGP with 10 basis functions (10SSGP), SE-MPGP with 5 particles (5-SE-MPGP), SENN-MPGP with 5 particles (5-SENN-MPGP). 6 Table 1: Benchmarks Comparison for Synthetic Datasets. The NMSEi, MNLPi, RTimei represent the NMSE, MNLP and running time for the function fi (i = 1, 2) Method NMSE1 MNLP1 RTime1 NMSE2 MNLP2 RTime2 5-SPGP 10-SSGP 5-SE-MPGP 5-SENN-MPGP 0.2243 0.0887 0.0880 0.0881 0.5409 0.1606 1.6318 0.1820 28.6418s 18.8605s 12.5737s 18.7513s 0.5445 0.1144 0.1687 0.1289 1.5950 1.1208 1.3524 1.1782 30.3578s 10.2025s 12.4801s 11.5909s Table 2: Benchmarks Comparison. Data1 is the temperature dataset. Data2 is the pendulum dataset. Data1 NMSE MNLP RTime Data2 NMSE MNLP RTime 5-SPGP 10-SSGP 5-SE-MPGP 5-SENN-MPGP 0.48 0.27 0.11 0.10 1.62 1.33 1.05 1.16 181.3s 97.16s 50.99s 59.25s 10-SPGP 10-SSGP 20-SE-MPGP 20-SENN-MPGP 0.61 1.04 0.63 0.58 1.98 10.85 2.20 2.12 16.54s 23.59s 7.04s 8.60s In Table 1, our 5-SE-MPGP mainly outperforms SPGP except that its MNLP1 is worse than the one of SPGP. The reason is the synthetic functions are nonstationary but SE-MPGP uses a stationary SE kernel. Hence we perform 5-SENN-MPGP with a nonstationary kernel to show that our MPGP is competitive with SSGP, and much better with shorter running time than SPGP. Global Surface Temperature Dataset: We present here a preliminary analysis of the Global Surface Temperature Dataset in January 2011 (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). We first gather the training data with 100 collections. For each collection, we randomly select 90 data points where the input vector is the longitude and latitude location, the output is the temperature (o C). There are two test data sets: the first one is a grid test input set (Longitude: -180:40:180, Latitude: -90:20:90) that is used to show the estimated surface temperature. The second test input set (100 points) is randomly selected from the data website after obtaining all the training data. The first experiment aims to show the predicted surface temperature at the grid test inputs. We set the number of particles in the SE-MPGP and SENN-MPGP as 20. From Figure 4, the KFGP methods stuck in the local optimum: SE-KFGP seems underfitting since it does not model the cold region around the location (100, 50), SENN-KFGP seems overfitting since it unexpectedly models the cold region around (-100, -50). On the contrary, SE-MPGP and SENN-MPGP suitably fit the data set via the hyperparameter online learning. The second experiment is to evaluate the estimation error of our MPGP using the second test data. We firstly run all the methods to compute the NMSE and MNLP over iteration. From the first row of Figure 5, the NMSE and MNLP of MPGP are lower than KFGP. Moreover, SENN-MPGP is much lower than SE-MPGP, which shows that SENN-MPGP successfully models the spatial nonstationarity of the temperature data. Then we change the number of particles. For each number, we run SE-MPGP, SENN-MPGP 3 times to evaluate the average NMSE, MNLP and running time. It shows that SENN-MPGP fits the data better than SE-MPGP but the trade-off is the longer running time. The third experiment is to compare our MPGP with the benchmarks. All the denotations are same as the third experiment of the simulated data. We also randomly interrupt the order of training subsets for the robustness consideration. From Table 2, the comparison results show that our MPGP uses a shorter running time with a better estimation performance than SPGP and SSGP. Pendulum Dataset: This is a small data set which contains 315 training points. In [3], it is mentioned that SSGP model seems to be overfitting for this data due to the gradient ascent optimization. We are interested in whether our method can successfully capture the nonlinear property of this pendulum data. We firstly collect the training data 9 times, and 35 training data for each collection. Then, 100 test points are randomly selected for evaluating the performance. From Table 2, our SENN-MPGP obtains the estimation with the fastest speed and the smallest NMSE among all the methods, and the MNLP is competitive to SPGP. 7 8 90 90 90 90 90 50 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 latitude 0 latitude latitude 2 latitude 4 latitude 6 0 0 ?2 ?4 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?6 ?90 ?180 ?8 ?100 ?90 100 180 ?180 0 longitude 0.8 5.4 0.7 5.2 ?100 0 longitude ?90 180 ?180 100 ?100 0 longitude ?90 180 ?180 100 0.1 ?100 0 longitude ?90 180 ?180 100 ?2.65 ?0.82 ?2.7 ?0.84 0 log(a0) SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 0.4 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 4.6 ?0.1 SENN?MPGP 0.1 0 50 t 100 3.8 ?2.95 ?0.96 ?3 0 50 t 100 ?0.4 0 50 t 100 ?3.05 SENN?MPGP ?0.94 ?0.3 4 180 ?0.9 ?0.92 ?2.9 4.2 0.2 100 ?0.88 ?2.8 ?2.85 ?0.2 4.4 0.3 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 0 longitude ?0.86 log(a4) 0.5 log(a1) 4.8 log(a2) 0.6 ?2.75 log(a3) 5 ?100 ?0.98 0 50 t 100 ?1 0 50 t 100 Figure 4: The temperature estimation at t = 100. The first row (from left to right): the temperature value bar, the full training observation plot, the grid test output estimation by SE-KFGP, SENNKFGP, SE-MPGP, SENN-MPGP. The black crosses are the observations at t = 100. The second row (from left to right) is the estimation of log hyperparameters (log(a0 ) to log(a4 )). 2 0.6 SE?KFGP SENN?KFGP SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP SE?KFGP SENN?KFGP SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 1.8 MNLP NMSE 0.5 1.9 0.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.3 1.4 0.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 Iteration 60 70 0.45 80 90 100 1.3 0 10 20 30 2.6 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 0.4 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP 2.4 60 70 80 90 100 SE?MPGP SENN?MPGP Running Time MNLP NMSE 0.3 50 Iteration 300 2.2 0.35 40 400 2 1.8 1.6 200 100 0.25 1.4 0.2 5 10 15 20 Number of Particles 25 30 5 10 15 20 Number of Particles 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 Number of Particles 25 30 Figure 5: The NMSE and MNLP evaluation. The first row: the NMSE and MNLP over iteration. The second row: the average NMSE, MNLP, Running time as a function of the number of particles. 6 Conclusion We have proposed a novel Bayesian filtering framework for GP regression, which is a fast and accurate online method. Our MPGP framework does not only estimate the function value successfully, but it also provides a new technique for learning the unknown static hyperparameters by online estimating the marginal posterior of hyperparameters. The small training set at each iteration would largely reduce the computation load while the estimation performance is improved over iteration due to the fact that recursive filtering would propagate the previous estimation to enhance the current estimation. In comparison with other benchmarks, we have shown that our MPGP could provide a robust estimation with a competitively computational speed. In the future, it would be interesting to explore the time-varying function estimation with our MPGP. 8 References [1] C. E. Rasmussen, C. K. I. Williams, Gaussian Process for Machine learning, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2006. [2] E. Snelson, Z. Ghahramani, Sparse gaussian processes using pseudo-inputs, in: NIPS, 2006, pp. 1257?1264. [3] M. L.-Gredilla, J. Q.-Candela, C. E. Rasmussen, A. R. F.-Vidal, Sparse spectrum gaussian process regression, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11 (2010) 1865?1881. [4] S. Reece, S. Roberts, An introduction to gaussian processes for the kalman filter expert, in: FUSION, 2010. [5] R. M. Neal, Monte carlo implementation of gaussian process models for bayesian regression and classification, Tech. rep., Department of Statistics, University of Toronto (1997). [6] D. J. C. MacKay, Introduction to gaussian processes, in: Neural Networks and Machine Learning, 1998, pp. 133?165. [7] M. P. Deisenroth, Efficient reinforcement learning using gaussian processes, Ph.D. thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (2010). [8] J. Liu, M. West, Combined parameter and state estimation in simulation-based filtering, in: Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice, 2001, pp. 197?223. [9] P. Li, R. Goodall, V. Kadirkamanathan, Estimation of parameters in a linear state space model using a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter, IEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications 151 (2004) 727?738. [10] N. Kantas, A. Doucet, S. S. Singh, J. M. Maciejowski, An overview of squential Monte Carlo methods for parameter estimation in general state space models, in: 15 th IFAC Symposium on System Identification, 2009. [11] A. Doucet, N. de Freitas, K. Murphy, S. Russell, Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering for dynamic Bayesian networks, in: UAI, 2000, pp. 176?183. [12] N. de Freitas, Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering for fault diagnosis, in: IEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings, 2002, pp. 1767?1772. [13] T. Sch?on, F. Gustafsson, P.-J. Nordlund, Marginalized particle filters for mixed linear/nonlinear state-space models, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 53 (2005) 2279 ? 2289. [14] J. Ko, D. Fox, Gp-bayesfilters: Bayesian filtering using gaussian process prediction and observation models, in: IROS, 2008, pp. 3471?3476. [15] M. P. Deisenroth, R. Turner, M. F. Huber, U. D. Hanebeck, C. E. Rasmussen, Robust filtering and smoothing with gaussian processes, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. [16] I. DiMatteo, C. R. Genovese, R. E. Kass, Bayesian Curve Fitting with Free-Knot Splines, Biometrika 88 (2001) 1055?1071. [17] S. A. Wood, Bayesian mixture of splines for spatially adaptive nonparametric regression, Biometrika 89 (2002) 513?528. 9
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Learning Mixtures of Tree Graphical Models Daniel Hsu Microsoft Research New England [email protected] Animashree Anandkumar UC Irvine [email protected] Furong Huang UC Irvine [email protected] Sham M. Kakade Microsoft Research New England [email protected] Abstract We consider unsupervised estimation of mixtures of discrete graphical models, where the class variable is hidden and each mixture component can have a potentially different Markov graph structure and parameters over the observed variables. We propose a novel method for estimating the mixture components with provable guarantees. Our output is a tree-mixture model which serves as a good approximation to the underlying graphical model mixture. The sample and computational requirements for our method scale as poly(p, r), for an r-component mixture of pvariate graphical models, for a wide class of models which includes tree mixtures and mixtures over bounded degree graphs. Keywords: Graphical models, mixture models, spectral methods, tree approximation. 1 Introduction The framework of graphical models allows for parsimonious representation of high-dimensional data by encoding statistical relationships among the given set of variables through a graph, known as the Markov graph. Recent works have shown that a wide class of graphical models can be estimated efficiently in high dimensions [1?3]. However, frequently, graphical models may not suffice to explain all the characteristics of the observed data. For instance, there may be latent or hidden variables, which can influence the observed data in myriad ways. In this paper, we consider latent variable models, where a latent variable can alter the relationships (both structural and parametric) among the observed variables. In other words, we posit the observed data as being generated from a mixture of graphical models, where each mixture component has a potentially different Markov graph structure and parameters. The choice variable corresponding to the selection of the mixture component is hidden. Such a class of graphical model mixtures can incorporate context-specific dependencies, and employs multiple graph structures to model the observed data. This leads to a significantly richer class of models, compared to graphical models. Learning graphical model mixtures is however far more challenging than learning graphical models. State-of-art theoretical guarantees are mostly limited to mixtures of product distributions, also known as latent class models or na??ve Bayes models. These models are restrictive since they do not allow for dependencies to exist among the observed variables in each mixture component. Our work significantly generalizes this class and allows for general Markov dependencies among the observed variables in each mixture component. The output of our method is a tree mixture model, which is a good approximation for the underlying graphical model mixture. The motivation behind fitting the observed data to a tree mixture is clear: inference can be performed efficiently via belief propagation in each of the mixture components. 1 See [4] for a detailed discussion. Thus, a tree mixture model offers a good tradeoff between using single-tree models, which are too simplistic, and general graphical model mixtures, where inference is not tractable. 1.1 Summary of Results We propose a novel method with provable guarantees for unsupervised estimation of discrete graphical model mixtures. Our method has mainly three stages: graph structure estimation, parameter estimation, and tree approximation. The first stage involves estimation of the union graph structure G? := ?h Gh , which is the union of the Markov graphs {Gh } of the respective mixture components. Our method is based on a series of rank tests, and can be viewed as a generalization of conditionalindependence tests for graphical model selection (e.g. [1, 5, 6]). We establish that our method is efficient (in terms of computational and sample complexities), when the underlying union graph has sparse vertex separators. This includes tree mixtures and mixtures with bounded degree graphs. The second stage of our algorithm involves parameter estimation of the mixture components. In general, this problem is NP-hard. We provide conditions for tractable estimation of pairwise marginals of the mixture components. Roughly, we exploit the conditional-independence relationships to convert the given model to a series of mixtures of product distributions. Parameter estimation for product distribution mixture has been well studied (e.g. [7?9]), and is based on spectral decompositions of the observed moments. We leverage on these techniques to obtain estimates of the pairwise marginals for each mixture component. The final stage for obtaining tree approximations involves running the standard Chow-Liu algorithm [10] on each component using the estimated pairwise marginals of the mixture components. We prove that our method correctly recovers the union graph structure and the tree structures corresponding to maximum-likelihood tree approximations of the mixture components. Note that if the underlying model is a tree mixture, we correctly recover the tree structures of the mixture components. The sample and computational complexities of our method scale as poly(p, r), for an r-component mixture of p-variate graphical models, when the union graph has sparse vertex separators between any node pair. This includes tree mixtures and mixtures with bounded degree graphs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide provable learning guarantees for graphical model mixtures. Our algorithm is also efficient for practical implementation and some preliminary experiments suggest an advantage over EM with respect to running times and accuracy of structure estimation of the mixture components. Thus, our approach for learning graphical model mixtures has both theoretical and practical implications. 1.2 Related Work Graphical Model Selection: Graphical model selection is a well studied problem starting from the seminal work of Chow and Liu [10] for finding the maximum-likelihood tree approximation of a graphical model. Works on high-dimensional loopy graphical model selection are more recent. They can be classified into mainly two groups: non-convex local approaches [1, 2, 6] and those based on convex optimization [3, 11]. However, these works are not directly applicable for learning mixtures of graphical models. Moreover, our proposed method also provides a new approach for graphical model selection, in the special case when there is only one mixture component. Learning Mixture Models: Mixture models have been extensively studied, and there are a number of recent works on learning high-dimensional mixtures, e.g. [12,13]. These works provide guarantees on recovery under various separation constraints between the mixture components and/or have computational and sample complexities growing exponentially in the number of mixture components r. In contrast, the so-called spectral methods have both computational and sample complexities scaling only polynomially in the number of components, and do not impose stringent separation constraints. Spectral methods are applicable for parameter estimation in mixtures of discrete product distributions [7] and more generally for latent trees [8] and general linear multiview mixtures [9]. We leverage on these techniques for parameter estimation in models beyond product distribution mixtures. 2 2 Graphical Models and their Mixtures A graphical model is a family of multivariate distributions Markov on a given undirected graph [14]. In a discrete graphical model, each node in the graph v ? V is associated with a random variable Yv taking value in a finite set Y. Let d := |Y| denote the cardinality of the set and p := |V | denote the number of variables. A vector of random variables Y := (Y1 , . . . , Yp ) with a joint probability mass function (pmf) P is Markov on the graph G if P satisfies the global Markov property for all disjoint sets A, B ? V P (yA , yB |yS(A,B;G) ) = P (yA |yS(A,B;G) )P (yB |yS(A,B;G) ), ?A, B ? V : N [A] ? N [B] = ?. where the set S(A, B; G) is a node separator1 between A and B, and N [A] denotes the closed neighborhood of A (i.e., including A). Mixtures of discrete graphical models is considered. Let H denote the discrete hidden choice variable corresponding to selection of a different mixture components, taking values in [r] := {1, . . . , r} and let Y denote the observed random vector. Denote ? H := [P (H = h)]> h as the probability vector of the mixing weights and Gh as the Markov graph of the distribution P (y|H = h) of each mixture component. Given n i.i.d. samples yn = [y1 , . . . , yn ]> from P (y), our goal is to find a tree approximation for each mixture component {P (y|H = h)}h . We do not assume any knowledge of the mixing weights ? H or Markov graphs {Gh }h or parameters of the mixture components {P (y|H = h)}h . Moreover, since the variable H is latent, we do not a priori know the mixture component from which a sample is drawn. Thus, a major challenge is in decomposition of the observed statistics into the component models, and we tackle this in three main stages. First, we estimate the union graph G? := ?rh=1 Gh , which is the union of the Markov graphs of the components. We then b? to obtain the pairwise marginals of the respective mixture components use this graph estimate G {P (y|H = h)}h . Finally, Chow-Liu algorithm provides tree approximations {Th }h of each mixture components. 3 Estimation of the Union of Component Graphs We propose a novel method for learning graphical model mixtures by first estimating the union graph G? = ?rh=1 Gh , which is the union of the graphs of the components. In the special case when Gh ? G? , this gives the graph estimate of the components. However, the union graph G? appears to have no direct relationship with the marginalized model P (y). We first provide intuitions on how G? relates to the observed statistics. Intuitions: We first establish the simple result that the union graph G? satisfies Markov property in each mixture component. Recall that S(u, v; G? ) denotes a vertex separator between nodes u and v in G? . Fact 1 (Markov Property of G? ) For any two nodes u, v ? V such that (u, v) ? / G? , Yu ? ? Yv |YS , H, S := S(u, v; G? ). (1) Proof: The separator set in G? , denoted by S := S(u, v; G? ), is also a vertex separator for u and v in each of the component graphs Gh . This is because removal of S disconnects u and v in each Gh . Thus, we have Markov property in each component: Yu ? ? Yv |YS , {H = h}, for each h ? [r], and the above result follows. 2 The above result can be exploited to obtain union graph estimate as follows: two nodes u, v are not neighbors in G? if a separator set S can be found which results in conditional independence, as in (1). The main challenge is indeed that the variable H is not observed and thus, conditional independence cannot be directly inferred via observed statistics. However, the effect of H on the observed statistics can be quantified as follows: Lemma 1 (Rank Property) Given an r-component mixture of graphical models with G? = ?rh=1 Gh , for any u, v ? V such that (u, v) ? / G? and S := S(u, v; G? ), the probability matrix Mu,v,{S;k} := [P [Yu = i, Yv = j, YS = k]]i,j has rank at most r for any k ? Y |S| . 1 A set S(A, B; G) ? V is a separator of sets A and B if the removal of nodes in S(A, B; G) separates A and B into distinct components. 3 The proof is given in [15]. Thus, the effect of marginalizing the choice variable H is seen in the rank of the observed probability matrices Mu,v,{S;k} . When u and v are non-neighbors in G? , a separator set S can be found such that the rank of Mu,v,{S;k} is at most r. In order to use this result as a criterion for inferring neighbors in G? , we require that the rank of Mu,v,{S;k} for any neighbors (u, v) ? G? be strictly larger than r. This requires the dimension of each node variable d > r. We discuss in detail the set of sufficient conditions for correctly recovering G? in Section 3.1. Tractable Graph Families: Another obstacle in using Lemma 1 to estimate graph G? is computational: the search for separators S for any node pair u, v ? V is exponential in |V | := p if no further constraints are imposed. We consider graph families where a vertex separator can be found for any (u, v) ? / G? with size at most ?. Under our framework, the hardness of learning a union graph is parameterized by ?. Similar observations have been made before for graphical model selection [1]. There are many natural families where ? is small: 1. If G? is trivial (i.e., no edges) then ? = 0, we have a mixture of product distributions. 2. When G? is a tree, i.e., we have a mixture model Markov on the same tree, then ? = 1, since there is a unique path between any two nodes on a tree. 3. For an arbitrary r-component tree mixture, G? = ?h Th where each component is a tree distribution, we have that ? ? r (since for any node pair, there is a unique path in each of the r trees {Th }, and separating the node pair in each Th also separates them on G? ). P 4. For an arbitrary mixture of bounded degree graphs, we have ? ? h?[r] ?h , where ?h is the maximum degree in Gh , i.e., the Markov graph corresponding to component {H = h}. In general, ? depends on the respective bounds ?h for the component graphs Gh , as well as the extent P of their overlap. In the worst case, ? can be as high as h?[r] ?h , while in the special case when Gh ? G? , the bound remains the same ?h ? ?. Note that for a general graph G? with treewidth tw(G? ) and maximum degree ?(G? ), we have that ? ? min(?(G? ), tw(G? )). bn = RankTest(yn ; ?n,p , ?, r) for estimating G? := ?r Gh of an r-component Algorithm 1 G ? h=1 mixture using yn samples, where ? is the bound on size of vertex separators between any node pair in G? and ?n,p is a threshold on the singular values. Rank(A; ?) denotes the effective rank of matrix A, i.e., number of singular values more than ?. cn bn M u,v,{S;k} := [P (Yu = i, Yv = j, YS = k)]i,j is the empirical estimate computed using n i.i.d. bn = (V, ?). For each u, v ? V , estimate M cn samples yn . Initialize G from yn for some ? u,v,{S;k} configuration k ? Y |S| , if min S?V \{u,v} |S|?? bn . then add (u, v) to G ? cn Rank(M u,v,{S;k} ; ?n,p ) > r, (2) Rank Test: Based on the above observations, we propose a rank test to estimate G? := ?h?[r] Gh , the union graph in Algorithm 1. The method is based on a search for potential separators S between cn any two given nodes u, v ? V , based on the effective rank of M u,v,{S;k} : if the effective rank is r or less, then u and v are declared as non-neighbors (and set S as their separator). If no such sets are found, they are declared as neighbors. Thus, the method involves searching for separators for each node pair u, v ? V , by considering all sets S ? V \ {u, v} satisfying |S| ? ?. The computational complexity of this procedure is O(p?+2 d3 ), where d is the dimension of each node variable Yi , for i ? V and p is the number of nodes. This is because the number of rank tests performed is O(p?+2 ) over all node pairs and conditioning sets; each rank tests has O(d3 ) complexity since it involves performing singular value decomposition (SVD) of a d ? d matrix. 4 3.1 Analysis of the Rank Test We now provide guarantees for the success of rank tests in estimating G? . As noted before, we require that the number of components r and the dimension d of each node variable satisfy d > r. Moreover, we assume bounds on the size of separator sets, ? = O(1). This includes tree mixtures and mixtures over bounded degree graphs. In addition, the following parameters determine the success of the rank tests. (A1) Rank condition for neighbors: Let Mu,v,{S;k} := [P (Yu = i, Yv = j, YS = k)]i,j and  ?min := min (3) max ?r+1 Mu,v,{S;k} > 0, (u,v)?G? ,|S|?? k?Y |S| S?V \{u,v} where ?r+1 (?) denotes the (r + 1)th singular value, when the singular values are arranged in the descending order ?1 (?) ? ?2 (?) ? . . . ?d (?). This ensures that the probability matrices for neighbors (u, v) ? G? have (effective) rank of at least r + 1, and thus, the rank test can correctly distinguish neighbors from non-neighbors. It rules out the presence of spurious low rank matrices between neighboring nodes in G? (for instance, when the nodes are marginally independent or when the distribution is degenerate). (A2) Choice of threshold ?: The threshold ? on singular values is chosen as ? := ?min 2 . (A3) Number of Samples: Given ? ? (0, 1), the number of samples n satisfies 2 !   2 1 , n > nRank (?; p) := max 2 2 log p + log ? ?1 + log 2 , t ?min ? t (4) for some t ? (0, ?min ) (e.g. t = ?min /2,) where p is the number of nodes. We now provide the result on the success of recovering the union graph G? := ?rh=1 Gh . Theorem 1 (Success of Rank Tests) The RankTest(yn ; ?, ?, r) recovers the correct graph G? , which is the union of the component Markov graphs, under (A1)?(A3) with probability at least 1 ? ?. A special case of the above result is graphical model selection, where there is a single graphical model (r = 1) and we are interested in estimating its graph structure. Corollary 1 (Application to Graphical Model Selection) Given n i.i.d. samples yn , the n RankTest(y ; ?, ?, 1) is structurally consistent under (A1)?(A3) with probability at least 1 ? ?. Remarks: Thus, the rank test is also applicable for graphical model selection. Previous works (see Section 1.2) have proposed tests based on conditional independence, using either conditional mutual information or conditional variation distances, see [1, 6]. The rank test above is thus an alternative test for conditional independence in graphical models, resulting in graph structure estimation. In addition, it extends naturally to estimation of union graph structure of mixture components. Our above result establishes that our method is also efficient in high dimensions, since it only requires logarithmic samples for structural consistency (n = ?(log p)). 4 Parameter Estimation of Mixture Components Having obtained an estimate of the union graph G? , we now describe a procedure for estimating parameters of the mixture components {P (y|H = h)}. Our method is based on spectral decomposition, proposed previously for mixtures of product distributions [7?9]. We recap it briefly below and then describe how it can be adapted to the more general setting of graphical model mixtures. Recap of Spectral Decomposition in Mixtures of Product Distributions: Consider the case where V = {u, v, w}, and Yu ? ? Yv ? ? Yw |H. For simplicity assume that d = r, i.e., the hidden and observed variables have the same dimension. This assumption will be removed subsequently. Denote Mu|H := [P (Yu = i|H = j)]i,j , and similarly for Mv|H , Mw|H and assume that they are 5 full rank. Denote the probability matrices Mu,v := [P (Yu = i, Yv = j)]i,j and Mu,v,{w;k} := [P (Yu = i, Yv = j, Yw = k)]i,j . The parameters (i.e., matrices Mu|H , Mv|H , Mw|H ) can be estimated as: Lemma 2 (Mixture of Product Distributions) Given the above model, (k) (k) [?1 , . . . , ?d ]> be the column vector with the d eigenvalues given by  ?1 ?(k) := Eigenvalues Mu,v,{w;k} Mu,v , k ? Y. Let ? := [? (1) |? (2) (d) | . . . |? th let ?(k) = (5) (k) ] be a matrix where the k column corresponds to ? > Mw|H := [P (Yw = i|H = j)]i,j = ? . . We have (6) For the proof of the above result and for the general algorithm (when d ? r), see [9]. Thus, if we have a general product distribution mixture over nodes in V , we can learn the parameters by performing the above spectral decomposition over different triplets {u, v, w}. However, an obstacle remains: spectral decomposition over different triplets {u, v, w} results in different permutations of the labels of the hidden variable H. To overcome this, note that any two triplets (u, v, w) and (u, v 0 , w0 ) share the same set of eigenvectors in (5) when the ?left? node u is the same. Thus, if we consider a fixed node u? ? V as the ?left? node and use a fixed matrix to diagonalize (5) for all triplets, we obtain a consistent ordering of the hidden labels over all triplet decompositions. Parameter Estimation in Graphical Model Mixtures: We now adapt the above procedure for estimating components of a general graphical model mixture. We first make a simple observation on how to obtain mixtures of product distributions by considering separators on the union graph G? . For any three nodes u, v, w ? V , which are not neighbors on G? , let Suvw denote a multiway vertex separator, i.e., the removal of nodes in Suvw disconnects u, v and w in G? . On lines of Fact 1, Yu ? ? Yv ? ? Yw |YSuvw , H, ?u, v, w : (u, v), (v, w), (w, u) ? / G? . (7) Thus, by fixing the configuration of nodes in Suvw , we obtain a product distribution mixture over {u, v, w}. If the previously proposed rank test is successful in estimating G? , then we possess correct knowledge of the separators Suvw . In this case, we can obtain estimates {P (Yw |YSuvw = k, H = h)}h by fixing the nodes in Suvw and using the spectral decomposition described in Lemma 2, and the procedure can be repeated over different triplets {u, v, w}. An obstacle remains, viz., the permutation of hidden labels over different triplet decompositions {u, v, w}. In case of product distribution mixture, as discussed previously, this is resolved by fixing the ?left? node in the triplet to some u? ? V and using the same matrix for diagonalization over different triplets. However, an additional complication arises when we consider graphical model mixtures, where conditioning over separators is required. We require that the permutation of the hidden labels be unchanged upon conditioning over different values of variables in the separator set Su? vw . This holds when the separator set Su? vw has no effect on node u? , i.e., we require that ? YV \u? |H, ?u? ? V, s.t. Yu? ? (8) which implies that u? is isolated from all other nodes in graph G? . Condition (8) is required for identifiability if we only operate on statistics over different triplets (along with their separator sets). In other words, if we resort to operations over only low order statistics, we require additional conditions such as (8) for identifiability. However, our setting is a significant generalization over the mixtures of product distributions, where (8) is required to hold for all nodes. Finally, since our goal is to estimate pairwise marginals of the mixture components, in place of node w in the triplet {u, v, w} in Lemma 2, we need to consider a node pair a, b ? V . The general algorithm allows the variables in the triplet to have different dimensions, see [9] for details. Thus, we obtain estimates of the pairwise marginals of the mixture components. For details on implementation, refer to [15]. 4.1 Analysis and Guarantees In addition to (A1)?(A3) in Section 3.1 to guarantee correct recovery of G? and the conditions discussed above, the success of parameter estimation depends on the following quantities: 6 (A4) Non-degeneracy: For each node pair a, b ? V , and any subset S ? V \ {a, b} with |S| ? 2? and k ? Y |S| , the probability matrix M(a,b)|H,{S;k} := [P (Ya,b = i|H = 2 j, YS = k)]i,j ? Rd ?r has rank r. (A5) Spectral Bounds and Number of Samples: Refer to various spectral bounds used to obtain K(?; p, d, r) in (??) in [15], where ? ? (0, 1) is fixed. Given any fixed  ? (0, 1), assume that the number of samples satisfies n > nspect (?, ; p, d, r) := 4K 2 (?; p, d, r) . 2 (9) Note that (A4) is a natural condition required for success of spectral decomposition and has been previously imposed for learning product distribution mixtures [7?9]. Moreover, when (A4) does not hold, i.e., when the matrices are not full rank, parameter estimation is computationally at least as hard as learning parity with noise, which is conjectured to be computationally hard [8]. Condition (A5) is required for learning product distribution mixtures [9], and we inherit it here. We now provide guarantees for estimation of pairwise marginals of the mixture components. Let k ? k2 on a vector denote the `2 norm. Theorem 2 (Parameter Estimation of Mixture Components) Under the assumptions (A1)?(A5), the spectral decomposition method outputs Pb spect (Ya , Yb |H = h), for each a, b ? V , such that for all h ? [r], there exists a permutation ? (h) ? [r] with kPb spect(Ya , Yb |H = h) ? P (Ya , Yb |H = ? (h))k2 ? , (10) with probability at least 1 ? 4?. Remark: Recall that p denotes the number of variables, r is the number of mixture components, d is the dimension of each node variable and ? is the bound on separator sets between any node pair in the We establish that K(?; p, d, r) is  union graph. O p2?+2 d2? r5 ? ?1 poly log(p, d, r, ? ?1 ) in [15]. Thus, we require the number of samples in (9)  4?+4 4? 10 ?2 ?2 ?1 scaling as n = ? p d r ?  poly log(p, d, r, ? ) . Since we consider models where ? = O(1) is a small constant, this implies that we have a polynomial sample complexity in p, d, r. Tree Approximation of Mixture Components: The final step involves using the estimated pairwise marginals of each component {Pb spect (Ya , Yb |H = h)} to obtain tree approximation of the component via Chow-Liu algorithm [10]. We now impose a standard condition of non-degeneracy on each mixture component to guarantee the existence of a unique tree structure corresponding to the maximum-likelihood tree approximation to the mixture component. (A6) Separation of Mutual Information: Let Th denote the maximum-likelihood tree approximation corresponding to the model P (y|H = h) when exact statistics are input and let ? := min min min h?[r] (a,b)?T / h (u,v)?Path(a,b;Th ) (I(Yu , Yv |H = h) ? I(Ya , Yb |H = h)) , (11) where Path(a, b; Th ) denotes the edges along the path connecting a and b in Th . Intuitively ? denotes the ?bottleneck? where errors are most likely to occur in tree structure estimation. See [16] for a detailed discussion. (A7) Number of Samples: Given tree defined in [15], we require n > nspect(?, tree ; p, d, r), (12) tree where nspect is given by (9). Intuitively,  provides the bound on distortion of the estimated pairwise marginals of the mixture components, required for correct estimation of tree approximations, and depends on ? in (11). Theorem 3 (Tree Approximations of Mixture Components) Under (A1)?(A7), the Chow-Liu algorithm outputs the correct tree structures corresponding to maximum-likelihood tree approximations of the mixture components {P (y|H = h)} with probability at least 1 ? 4?, when the estimates of pairwise marginals {Pb spect(Ya , Yb |H = h)} from spectral decomposition method are input. 7 ?25 ?5.5 EM Proposed Proposed+EM ?18 ?20 ?27 Log-likelihood ?6 ?22 Log-likelihood Log-likelihood ?26 ?6.5 ?28 ?29 ?30 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 ?24 ?7.5 ?26 EM Proposed Proposed+EM ?7 3000 4000 5000 6000 EM Proposed Proposed+EM ?28 7000 8000 ?30 3000 Sample Size n Sample Size n 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Sample Size n (a) Overall likelihood of the mixture (b) Conditional likelihood of strong (c) Conditional likelihood of weak component component Figure 1: Performance of the proposed method, EM and EM initialized with the proposed method output on a tree mixture with two components. 2 1.5 EM Proposed Proposed+EM EM Proposed Proposed+EM Edit distances 0.1 1 0.5 0.05 0 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Sample Size n (a) Classification error 8000 0 EM Proposed Proposed+EM 1.5 Edit distances Classification error 0.2 0.15 1 0.5 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Sample Size n Sample Size n (b) Strong component edit distance (c) Weak component edit distance Figure 2: Classification error and normalized edit distances of the proposed method, EM and EM initialized with the proposed method output on the tree mixture. 5 Experiments Experimental results are presented on synthetic data. We estimate the graph using proposed algorithm and compare the performance of our method with EM [4]. Comprehensive results based on the normalized edit distances and log-likelihood scores between the estimated and the true graphs are presented. We generate samples from a mixture over two different trees (r = 2) with mixing weights ? = [0.7, 0.3] using Gibbs sampling. Each mixture component is generated from the standard Potts model on p = 60 nodes, where the node variables are ternary (d = 3), and the number of samples n ? [2.5 ? 103, 104 ]. The joint distribution of nodes in each mixture component is given by ? ? X X Ji,j;h (I(Yi = Yj ) ? 1) + P (X|H = h) ? exp ? Ki;h Yi , ? i?V (i,j)?G where I is the indicator function and Jh := {Ji,j;h } are the edge potentials in the model. For the first component (H = 1), the edge potentials J1 are chosen uniformly from [5, 5.05], while for the second component (H = 2), J2 are chosen from [0.5, 0.55]. We refer to the first component as strong and the second as weak since the correlations vary widely between the two models due to the choice of parameters. The node potentials are all set to zero (Ki;h = 0) except at the isolated node u? in the union graph. The performance of the proposed method is compared with EM. We consider 10 random initializations of EM and run it to convergence. We also evaluated EM by utilizing proposed result as the initial point (referred to as Proposed+EM in the figures). We observe in Fig 1a that the overall likelihood under our method is comparable with EM. Intuitively this is because EM attempts to maximize the overall likelihood. However, our algorithm has significantly superior performance with respect to the edit distance which is the error in estimating the tree structure in the two components, as seen in Fig 2. In fact, EM never manages to recover the structure of the weak components(i.e., the component with weak correlations). Intuitively, this is because EM uses the overall likelihood as criterion for tree selection. Under the above choice of parameters, the weak component has a much lower contribution to the overall likelihood, and thus, EM is unable to recover it. We also observe in Fig 1b and Fig 1c, that our proposed method has superior performance in terms of conditional likelihood for both the components. Classification error is evaluated in Fig 2a. We could get smaller classification errors than EM method. The above experimental results confirm our theoretical analysis and suggest the advantages of our basic technique over more common approaches. Our method provides a point of tractability in the spectrum of probabilistic models, and extending beyond the class we consider here is a promising direction of future research. Acknowledgements: The first author is supported in part by the NSF Award CCF-1219234, AFOSR Award FA9550-10-1-0310, ARO Award W911NF-12-1-0404, and setup funds at UCI. The third author is supported by the NSF Award 1028394 and AFOSR Award FA9550-10-1-0310. 8 References [1] A. Anandkumar, V. Y. F. Tan, F. Huang, and A. S. Willsky. High-Dimensional Structure Learning of Ising Models: Local Separation Criterion. Accepted to Annals of Statistics, Jan. 2012. [2] A. Jalali, C. Johnson, and P. Ravikumar. On learning discrete graphical models using greedy methods. In Proc. of NIPS, 2011. [3] P. Ravikumar, M.J. Wainwright, and J. Lafferty. High-dimensional Ising Model Selection Using l1Regularized Logistic Regression. Annals of Statistics, 2008. [4] M. Meila and M.I. Jordan. Learning with mixtures of trees. J. of Machine Learning Research, 1:1?48, 2001. [5] P. Spirtes and C. Meek. Learning bayesian networks with discrete variables from data. In Proc. of Intl. Conf. on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 294?299, 1995. [6] G. Bresler, E. Mossel, and A. Sly. Reconstruction of Markov Random Fields from Samples: Some Observations and Algorithms. In Intl. workshop APPROX Approximation, Randomization and Combinatorial Optimization, pages 343?356. Springer, 2008. [7] J.T. Chang. Full reconstruction of markov models on evolutionary trees: identifiability and consistency. Mathematical Biosciences, 137(1):51?73, 1996. [8] E. Mossel and S. Roch. Learning nonsingular phylogenies and hidden Markov models. The Annals of Applied Probability, 16(2):583?614, 2006. [9] A. Anandkumar, D. Hsu, and S.M. Kakade. A Method of Moments for Mixture Models and Hidden Markov Models. In Proc. of Conf. on Learning Theory, June 2012. [10] C. Chow and C. Liu. Approximating Discrete Probability Distributions with Dependence Trees. IEEE Tran. on Information Theory, 14(3):462?467, 1968. [11] N. Meinshausen and P. B?uhlmann. High Dimensional Graphs and Variable Selection With the Lasso. Annals of Statistics, 34(3):1436?1462, 2006. [12] M. Belkin and K. Sinha. Polynomial learning of distribution families. In IEEE Annual Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, pages 103?112, 2010. [13] A. Moitra and G. Valiant. Settling the polynomial learnability of mixtures of gaussians. In IEEE Annual Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, 2010. [14] S.L. Lauritzen. Graphical models: Clarendon Press. Clarendon Press, 1996. [15] A. Anandkumar, D. Hsu, and S.M. Kakade. Learning High-Dimensional Mixtures of Graphical Models. Preprint. Available on ArXiv:1203.0697, Feb. 2012. [16] V.Y.F. Tan, A. Anandkumar, and A. Willsky. A Large-Deviation Analysis for the Maximum Likelihood Learning of Tree Structures. IEEE Tran. on Information Theory, 57(3):1714?1735, March 2011. 9
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Link Prediction in Graphs with Autoregressive Features Emile Richard CMLA UMR CNRS 8536, ENS Cachan, France St?phane Ga?ffas CMAP - Ecole Polytechnique & LSTA - Universit? Paris 6 Nicolas Vayatis CMLA UMR CNRS 8536, ENS Cachan, France Abstract In the paper, we consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve the accuracy of prediction. Our strategy involves a joint optimization procedure over the space of adjacency matrices and VAR matrices which takes into account both sparsity and low rank properties of the matrices. Oracle inequalities are derived and illustrate the trade-offs in the choice of smoothing parameters when modeling the joint effect of sparsity and low rank property. The estimate is computed efficiently using proximal methods through a generalized forward-backward agorithm. 1 Introduction Forecasting systems behavior with multiple responses has been a challenging issue in many contexts of applications such as collaborative filtering, financial markets, or bioinformatics, where responses can be, respectively, movie ratings, stock prices, or activity of genes within a cell. Statistical modeling techniques have been widely investigated in the context of multivariate time series either in the multiple linear regression setup [4] or with autoregressive models [23]. More recently, kernel-based regularized methods have been developed for multitask learning [7, 2]. These approaches share the use of the correlation structure among input variables to enrich the prediction on every single output. Often, the correlation structure is assumed to be given or it is estimated separately. A discrete encoding of correlations between variables can be modeled as a graph so that learning the dependence structure amounts to performing graph inference through the discovery of uncovered edges on the graph. The latter problem is interesting per se and it is known as the problem of link prediction where it is assumed that only a part of the graph is actually observed [15, 9]. This situation occurs in various applications such as recommender systems, social networks, or proteomics, and the appropriate tools can be found among matrix completion techniques [21, 5, 1]. In the realistic setup of a time-evolving graph, matrix completion was also used and adapted to take into account the dynamics of the features of the graph [18]. In this paper, we study the prediction problem where the observation is a sequence of graphs adjacency matrices (At )0?t?T and the goal is to predict AT +1 . This type of problem arises in applications such as recommender systems where, given information on purchases made by some users, one would like to predict future purchases. In this context, users and products can be modeled as the nodes of a bipartite graph, while purchases or clicks are modeled as edges. In functional genomics and systems biology, estimating regulatory networks in gene expression can be performed by modeling the data as graphs and fitting predictive models is a natural way for estimating evolving networks in these contexts. A large variety of methods for link prediction only consider predicting from a single static snapshot of the graph - this includes heuristics [15, 20], matrix factorization [13], diffusion [16], or probabilistic methods [22]. More recently, some works have investigated using sequences of observations of the graph to improve the prediction, such as using regression on features extracted from the graphs [18], using matrix factorization [14], continuous-time regression [25]. Our main assumption is that the network effect is a 1 cause and a symptom at the same time, and therefore, the edges and the graph features should be estimated simultaneously. We propose a regularized approach to predict the uncovered links and the evolution of the graph features simultaneously. We provide oracle bounds under the assumption that the noise sequence has subgaussian tails and we prove that our procedure achieves a trade-off in the calibration of smoothing parameters which adjust with the sparsity and the rank of the unknown adjacency matrix. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we describe the general setup of our work with the main assumptions and we formulate a regularized optimization problem which aims at jointly estimating the autoregression parameters and predicting the graph. In Section 3, we provide technical results with oracle inequalities and other theoretical guarantees on the joint estimation-prediction. Section 4 is devoted to the description of the numerical simulations which illustrate our approach. We also provide an efficient algorithm for solving the optimization problem and show empirical results. The proof of the theoretical results are provided as supplementary material in a separate document. 2 Estimation of low-rank graphs with autoregressive features Our approach is based on the asumption that features can explain most of the information contained in the graph, and that these features are evolving with time. We make the following assumptions about the sequence (At )t?0 of adjacency matrices of the graphs sequence. Low-Rank. We assume that the matrices At have low-rank. This reflects the presence of highly connected groups of nodes such as communities in social networks, or product categories and groups of loyal/fan users in a market place data, and is sometimes motivated by the small number of factors that explain nodes interactions. We assume to be given a linear map ? : Rn?n ? Rd defined by  > (1) ?(A) = h?1 , Ai, ? ? ? , h?d , Ai , Autoregressive linear features. where (?i )1?i?d is a set of n ? n matrices. These matrices can be either deterministic or random in our theoretical analysis, but we take them deterministic for the sake of simplicity. The vector time series (?(At ))t?0 has autoregressive dynamics, given by a VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) model: ?(At+1 ) = W0> ?(At ) + Nt+1 , (2) where W0 ? Rd?d is a unknown sparse matrix and (Nt )t?0 is a sequence of noise vectors in Rd . An example of linear features is the degree (i.e. number of edges connected to each node, or the sum of their weights if the edges are weighted), which is a measure of popularity in social and commerce networks. Introducing XT ?1 = (?(A0 ), . . . , ?(AT ?1 ))> and XT = (?(A1 ), . . . , ?(AT ))> , which are both T ? d matrices, we can write this model in a matrix form: XT = XT ?1 W0 + NT , (3) > where NT = (N1 , . . . , NT ) . This assumes that the noise is driven by time-series dynamics (a martingale increment), where each coordinates are independent (meaning that features are independently corrupted by noise), with a sub-gaussian tail and variance uniformly bounded by a constant ? 2 . In particular, no independence assumption between the Nt is required here. Notations. The notations k?kF , k?kp , k?k? , k?k? and k?kop stand, respectively, for the Frobenius norm, entry-wise `p norm, entry-wise `? norm, trace-norm (or nuclear norm, given by the sum of the singular values) and operator norm (the largest singular value). We denote by hA, Bi = tr(A> B) the Euclidean matrix product. A vector in Rd is always understood as a d ? 1 matrix. We denote by kAk0 the number of non-zero elements of A. The product A ? B between two matrices with matching dimensions stands for the Hadamard or entry-wise product between A and B. The matrix |A| contains the absolute values of entries of A. The matrix (M )+ is the componentwise positive part of the matrix M, and sign(M ) is the sign matrix associated to M with the convention sign(0) = 0 2 Pr > If A is a n ? n matrix with rank r, we write its SVD as A = U ?V > = j=1 ?j uj vj where ? = diag(?1 , . . . , ?r ) is a r ? r diagonal matrix containing the non-zero singular values of A in decreasing order, and U = [u1 , . . . , ur ], V = [v1 , . . . , vr ] are n ? r matrices with columns given by the left and right singular vectors of A. The projection matrix onto the space spanned by the columns (resp. rows) of A is given by PU = U U > (resp. PV = V V > ). The operator PA : Rn?n ? Rn?n given by PA (B) = PU B + BPV ? PU BPV is the projector onto the linear space spanned by the matrices uk x> and yvk> for 1 ? j, k ? r and x, y ? Rn . The projector onto the orthogonal space is ? given by PA (B) = (I ? PU )B(I ? PV ). We also use the notation a ? b = max(a, b). 2.1 Joint prediction-estimation through penalized optimization In order to reflect the autoregressive dynamics of the features, we use a least-squares goodness-offit criterion that encourages the similarity between two feature vectors at successive time steps. In order to induce sparsity in the estimator of W0 , we penalize this criterion using the `1 norm. This leads to the following penalized objective function: 1 kXT ? XT ?1 W k2F + ?kW k1 , T where ? > 0 is a smoothing parameter. J1 (W ) = Now, for the prediction of AT +1 , we propose to minimize a least-squares criterion penalized by the combination of an `1 norm and a trace-norm. This mixture of norms induces sparsity and a low-rank of the adjacency matrix. Such a combination of `1 and trace-norm was already studied in [8] for the matrix regression model, and in [19] for the prediction of an adjacency matrix. The objective function defined below exploits the fact that if W is close to W0 , then the features of the next graph ?(AT +1 ) should be close to W > ?(AT ). Therefore, we consider 1 k?(A) ? W > ?(AT )k2F + ? kAk? + ?kAk1 , d where ?, ? > 0 are smoothing parameters. The overall objective function is the sum of the two partial objectives J1 and J2 , which is jointly convex with respect to A and W : J2 (A, W ) = 1 . 1 L(A, W ) = kXT ? XT ?1 W k2F + ?kW k1 + k?(A) ? W > ?(AT )k22 + ? kAk? + ?kAk1 , (4) T d If we choose convex cones A ? Rn?n and W ? Rd?d , our joint estimation-prediction procedure is defined by ? W ? ) ? arg min L(A, W ). (A, (5) (A,W )?A?W d?d It is natural to take W = R and A = (R+ )n?n since there is no a priori on the values of the feature matrix W0 , while the entries of the matrix AT +1 must be positive. In the next section we propose oracle inequalities which prove that this procedure can estimate W0 and predict AT +1 at the same time. 2.2 Main result The central contribution of our work is to bound the prediction error with high probability under the following natural hypothesis on the noise process. Assumption 1. We assume that (Nt )t?0 satisfies E[Nt |Ft?1 ] = 0 for any t ? 1 and that there is ? > 0 such that for any ? ? R and j = 1, . . . , d and t ? 0: E[e?(Nt )j |Ft?1 ] ? e? 2 ?2 /2 . Moreover, we assume that for each t ? 0, the coordinates (Nt )1 , . . . , (Nt )d are independent. The main result can be summarized as follows. The prediction error and the estimation error can be simultaneously bounded by the sum of three terms that involve homogeneously (a) the sparsity, (b) the rank of the adjacency matrix AT +1 , and (c) the sparsity of the VAR model matrix W0 . The tight bounds we obtain are similar to the bounds of the Lasso and are upper bounded by: 3 log d log n log n kW0 k0 + C2 kAT +1 k0 + C3 rank AT +1 . T d d The positive constants C1 , C2 , C3 are proportional to the noise level ?. The interplay between the rank and sparsity constraints on AT +1 are reflected in the observation that the values of C2 and C3 can be changed as long as their sum remains constant. C1 3 Oracle inequalities In this section we give oracle inequalities for the mixed prediction-estimation error which is given, for any A ? Rn?n and W ? Rd?d , by 1 . 1 E(A, W )2 = k(W ? W0 )> ?(AT ) ? ?(A ? AT +1 )k22 + kXT ?1 (W ? W0 )k2F . (6) d T It is important to have in mind that an upper-bound on E implies upper-bounds on each of its two components. It entails in particular an upper-bound on the feature estimation error c ? W0 )kF that makes k(W c ? W0 )> ?(AT )k2 smaller and consequently controls the kXT ?1 (W b ? AT +1 )k2 . prediction error over the graph edges through k?(A The upper bounds on E given below exhibit the dependence of the accuracy of estimation and prediction on the number of features d, the number of edges n and the number T of observed graphs in the sequence. Let us recall NT = (N1 , . . . , NT )> and introduce the noise processes M =? d T 1X 1 1X (NT +1 )j ?j and ? = ?(At?1 )Nt> + ?(AT )NT>+1 , d j=1 T t=1 d which are, respectively, n ? n and d ? d random matrices. The source of randomness comes from the noise sequence (Nt )t?0 , see Assumption 1. If these noise processes are controlled correctly, we can prove the following oracle inequalities for procedure (5). The next result is an oracle inequality of slow type (see for instance [3]), that holds in full generality. ? W ? ) be given by (5) and suppose that Theorem 1. Under Assumption 2, let (A, ? ? 2?kM kop , ? ? 2(1 ? ?)kM k? and ? ? 2k?k? (7) for some ? ? (0, 1). Then, we have b W c )2 ? E(A, inf (A,W )?A?W n o E(A, W )2 + 2? kAk? + 2?kAk1 + 2?kW k1 . For the proof of oracle inequalities of fast type, the restricted eigenvalue (RE) condition introduced in [3] and [10, 11] is of importance. Restricted eigenvalue conditions are implied by, and in general weaker than, the so-called incoherence or RIP (Restricted isometry property, [6]) assumptions, which excludes, for instance, strong correlations between covariates in a linear regression model. This condition is acknowledged to be one of the weakest to derive fast rates for the Lasso (see [24] for a comparison of conditions). Matrix version of these assumptions are introduced in [12]. Below is a version of the RE assumption that fits in our context. First, we need to introduce the two restriction cones. The first cone is related to the kW k1 term used in procedure (5). If W ? Rd?d , we denote by d?d ?W = sign(W ) ? {0, ?1}d?d the signed sparsity pattern of W and by ?? the W ? {0, 1} d?d orthogonal sparsity pattern. For a fixed matrix W ? R and c > 0, we introduce the cone n o . 0 0 C1 (W, c) = W 0 ? W : k?? W ? W k1 ? ck?W ? W k1 . This cone contains the matrices W 0 that have their largest entries in the sparsity pattern of W . The second cone is related to mixture of the terms kAk? and kAk1 in procedure (5). Before defining it, we need further notations and definitions. 4 For a fixed A ? Rn?n and c, ? > 0, we introduce the cone n  o . ? 0 0 0 C2 (A, c, ?) = A0 ? A : kPA (A0 )k? + ?k?? ? A k ? c kP (A )k + ?k? ? A k . 1 A ? A 1 A This cone consist of the matrices A0 with large entries close to that of A and that are ?almost aligned? with the row and column spaces of A. The parameter ? quantifies the interplay between these too notions. Assumption 2 (Restricted Eigenvalue (RE)). For W ? W and c > 0, we have n o ? ?1 (W, c) = inf ? > 0 : k?W ? W 0 kF ? ? kXT ?1 W 0 kF , ?W 0 ? C1 (W, c) . T For A ? A and c, ? > 0, we introduce n ? ?2 (A, W, c, ?) = inf ? > 0 : kPA (A0 )kF ? k?A ? A0 kF ? ? kW 0> ?(AT ) ? ?(A0 )k2 d o 0 ?W ? C1 (W, c), ?A0 ? C2 (A, c, ?) . (8) The RE assumption consists of assuming that the constants ?1 and ?2 are finite. Now we can state the following Theorem that gives a fast oracle inequality for our procedure using RE. ? W ? ) be given by (5) and suppose that Theorem 2. Under Assumption 2 and Assumption 2, let (A, ? ? 3?kM kop , ? ? 3(1 ? ?)kM k? and ? ? 3k?k? (9) for some ? ? (0, 1). Then, we have n o 25 25 b W c )2 ? E(A, inf E(A, W )2 + ?2 (A, W )2 ? 2 rank(A)+? 2 kAk0 )+ ?2 ?1 (W )2 kW k0 , 18 36 (A,W )?A?W where ?1 (W ) = ?1 (W, 5) and ?2 (A, W ) = ?2 (A, W, 5, ?/? ) (see Assumption 2). The proofs of Theorems 1 and 2 use tools introduced in [12] and [3]. Note that the residual term from this oracle inequality mixes the notions of sparsity of A and W via the terms rank(A), kAk0 and kW k0 . It says that our mixed penalization procedure provides an optimal trade-off between fitting the data and complexity, measured by both sparsity and low-rank. This is the first result of this nature to be found in literature. In the next Theorem 3, we obtain convergence rates for the procedure (5) by combining Theorem 2 with controls on the noise processes. We introduce d d d 1 X 1 X 1 X 2 > 2 v?,op = ?> ? ? ? ? , v = ?j ? ?j , j j j j ?,? d j=1 d j=1 d j=1 op op ? 2 ??2 = max ??,j , j=1,...,d 2 where ??,j = T 1 X T  ?j (At?1 )2 + ?j (AT )2 , t=1 which are the (observable) variance terms that naturally appear in the controls of the noise processes. We introduce also   1 2 `T = 2 max log log ??,j ? 2 ?e , j=1,...,d ??,j which is a small (observable) technical term that comes out of our analysis of the noise process ?. This term is a small price to pay for the fact that no independence assumption is required on the noise sequence (Nt )t?0 , but only a martingale increment structure with sub-gaussian tails. ? W ? ) given by (5) with smoothing parameters given by Theorem 3. Consider the procedure (A, r 2(x + log(2n)) ? = 3??v?,op , r d 2(x + 2 log n) ? = 3(1 ? ?)?v?,? , d p r  2e(x + 2 log d + `T ) 2e(x + 2 log d + `T ) ? = 6??? + . T d 5 for some ? ? (0, 1) and fix a confidence level x > 0. Then, we have n 1 1 b W c )2 ? E(A, + 2 inf E(A, W )2 + C1 kW k0 (x + 2 log d + `T ) T d (A,W )?A?W 2(x + 2 log n) 2(x + log(2n)) o + C2 kAk0 + C3 rank(A) d d where 2 2 C1 = 100e?1 (W )2 ? 2 ??2 , C2 = 25?2 (A, W )2 (1??)2 ? 2 v?,? , C3 = 25?2 (A, W )2 ?2 ? 2 v?,op , with a probability larger than 1 ? 17e?x , where ?1 and ?2 are the same as in Theorem 2. The proof of Theorem 3 follows directly from Theorem 2 basic noise control results. In the next Theorem, we propose more explicit upper bounds for both the indivivual estimation of W0 and the prediction of AT +1 . Theorem 4. Under the same assumptions as in Theorem 3 and the same choice of smoothing parameters, for any x > 0 the following inequalities hold with probability larger than 1 ? 17e?x : ? Feature prediction error: 1 ? ? W0 )k2 ? 25 ?2 ?1 (W0 )2 kW0 k0 kXT (W F T 36 n1 o 25 + inf k?(A) ? ?(AT +1 )k22 + ?2 (A, W0 )2 ? 2 rank(A) + ? 2 kAk0 ) (10) A?A d 18 ? VAR parameter estimation error: ? ? W0 k1 ? 5??1 (W0 )2 kW0 k0 kW r p 1 25 k?(A) ? ?(AT +1 )k22 + ?2 (A, W0 )2 ? 2 rank(A) + ? 2 kAk0 ) +6 kW0 k0 ?1 (W0 ) inf A?A d 18 (11) ? Link prediction error: p ?p 2 ? kA?A kAT +1 k0 ) T +1 k? ? 5??1 (W0 ) kW0 k0 +?2 (AT +1 , W0 )(6 rank AT +1 +5 ? r 1 25 ? inf k?(A) ? ?(AT +1 )k22 + ?2 (A, W0 )2 ? 2 rank(A) + ? 2 kAk0 ) . (12) A?A d 18 4 4.1 Algorithms and Numerical Experiments Generalized forward-backward algorithm for minimizing L We use the algorithm designed in [17] for minimizing our objective function. Note that this algorithm is preferable to the method introduced in [18] as it directly minimizes L jointly in (S, W ) rather than alternately minimizing in W and S. Moreover we use the novel joint penalty from [19] that is more suited for estimating graphs. The proximal operator for the trace norm is given by the shrinkage operation, if Z = U diag(?1 , ? ? ? , ?n )V T is the singular value decomposition of Z, prox? ||.||? (Z) = U diag((?i ? ? )+ )i V T . Similarly, the proximal operator for the `1 -norm is the soft thresholding operator defined by using the entry-wise product of matrices denoted by ?: prox?||.||1 (Z) = sgn(Z) ? (|Z| ? ?)+ . The algorithm converges under very mild conditions when the step size ? is smaller than L is the operator norm of the joint quadratic loss: 1 1 ? : (A, W ) 7? kXT ? XT ?1 W k2F + k?(A) ? W > ?(AT )k2F . T d 6 2 L, where Algorithm 1 Generalized Forward-Backward to Minimize L Initialize A, Z1 , Z2 , W repeat Compute (GA , GW ) = ?A,W ?(A, W ). Compute Z1 = prox2?? ||.||? (2A ? Z1 ? ?GA ) Compute Z2 = prox2??||.||1 (2A ? Z2 ? ?GA ) Set A = 12 (Z1 + Z2 ) Set W = prox??||.||1 (W ? ?GW ) until convergence return (A, W ) minimizing L 4.2 A generative model for graphs having linearly autoregressive features Let V0 ? Rn?r be a sparse matrix, V0? its pseudo-inverse such, that V0? V0 = V0> V0>? = Ir . Fix two sparse matrices W0 ? Rr?r and U0 ? Rn?r . Now define the sequence of matrices (At )t?0 for t = 1, 2, ? ? ? by Ut = Ut?1 W0 + Nt and At = Ut V0> + Mt for i.i.d sparse noise matrices Nt and Mt , which means that for any pair of indices (i, j), with high probability (Nt )i,j = 0 and (Mt )i,j = 0. We define the linear feature map ?(A) = AV0>? , and point out that     1. The sequence ?(At )> = Ut + Mt V0>? follows the linear autoregressive relation t t ?(At ) = ?(At?1 ) W0 + Nt + Mt V0>? . > > 2. For any time index t, the matrix At is close to Ut V0 that has rank at most r 3. The matrices At and Ut are both sparse by construction. 4.3 Empirical evaluation We tested the presented methods on synthetic data generated as in section (4.2). In our experiments the noise matrices Mt and Nt where built by soft-thresholding i.i.d. noise N (0, ? 2 ). We took as input T = 10 successive graph snapshots on n = 50 nodes graphs of rank r = 5. We used d = 10 linear features, and finally the noise level was set to ? = .5. We compare our methods to standard baselines in link prediction. We use the area under the ROC curve as the measure of performance and report empirical results averaged over 50 runs with the corresponding confidence intervals in figure 4.3. The competitor methods are the nearest neighbors (NN) and static sparse and low-rank estimation, that is the link prediction algorithm suggested in [19]. The algorithm NN scores pairs of nodes with the number of common friends between them, which is given by A2 when A is the fT = PT At and the static sparse and low-rank estimation cumulative graph adjacency matrix A t=0 fT k2 + ? kXk? + ?kXk1 , and can be seen as the is obtained by minimizing the objective kX ? A F closest static version of our method. The two methods autoregressive low-rank and static low-rank are regularized using only the trace-norm, (corresponding to forcing ? = 0) and are slightly inferior to their sparse and low-rank rivals. Since the matrix V0 defining the linear map ? is unknown we fT = U ?V > is the SVD of A fT . The parameters ? consider the feature map ?(A) = AV where A and ? are chosen by 10-fold cross validation for each of the methods separately. 4.4 Discussion 1. Comparison with the baselines. This experiment sharply shows the benefit of using a temporal approach when one can handle the feature extraction task. The left-hand plot shows that if few snapshots are available (T ? 4 in these experiments), then static approaches are 7 AUC Link prediction performance 0.95 2 0.99 0.98 4 0.9 0.97 0.96 0.95 T AUC 6 0.85 0.94 8 0.93 Autoregressive Sparse and Low?rank Autoregressive Low?rank Static Sparse and Low?rank Static Low?rank Nearest?Neighbors 0.8 0.92 10 0.91 0.9 12 0.75 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 T 10 20 30 rank A 40 50 60 70 T+1 Figure 1: Left: performance of algorithms in terms of Area Under the ROC Curve, average and confidence intervals over 50 runs. Right: Phase transition diagram. to be preferred, whereas feature autoregressive approaches outperform as soon as sufficient number T graph snapshots are available (see phase transition). The decreasing performance of static algorithms can be explained by the fact that they use as input a mixture of graphs observed at different time steps. Knowing that at each time step the nodes have specific latent factors, despite the slow evolution of the factors, adding the resulting graphs leads to confuse the factors. 2. Phase transition. The right-hand figure is a phase transition diagram showing in which part of rank and time domain the estimation is accurate and illustrates the interplay between these two domain parameters. 3. Choice of the feature map ?. In the current work we used the projection onto the vector space of the top-r singular vectors of the cumulative adjacency matrix as the linear map ?, and this choice has shown empirical superiority to other choices. The question of choosing the best measurement to summarize graph information as in compress sensing seems to have both theoretical and application potential. Moreover, a deeper understanding of the connections of our problem with compressed sensing, for the construction and theoretical validation of the features mapping, is an important point that needs several developments. One possible approach is based on multi-kernel learning, that should be considered in a future work. 4. Generalization of the method. In this paper we consider only an autoregressive process of order 1. For better prediction accuracy, one could consider mode general models, such as vector ARMA models, and use model-selection techniques for the choice of the orders of the model. A general modelling based on state-space model could be developed as well. We presented a procedure for predicting graphs having linear autoregressive features. Our approach can easily be generalized to non-linear prediction through kernel-based methods. References [1] J. Abernethy, F. Bach, Th. Evgeniou, and J.-Ph. Vert. A new approach to collaborative filtering: operator estimation with spectral regularization. JMLR, 10:803?826, 2009. [2] A. Argyriou, M. Pontil, Ch. Micchelli, and Y. Ying. A spectral regularization framework for multi-task structure learning. Proceedings of Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2007. [3] P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, and A. B. Tsybakov. Simultaneous analysis of lasso and dantzig selector. Annals of Statistics, 37, 2009. [4] L. Breiman and J. H. Friedman. Predicting multivariate responses in multiple linear regression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (JRSS): Series B (Statistical Methodology), 59:3?54, 1997. 8 [5] E.J. Cand?s and T. Tao. The power of convex relaxation: Near-optimal matrix completion. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 56(5), 2009. [6] Cand?s E. and Tao T. Decoding by linear programming. In Proceedings of the 46th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2005. [7] Th. Evgeniou, Ch. A. Micchelli, and M. Pontil. Learning multiple tasks with kernel methods. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:615?637, 2005. [8] S. Gaiffas and G. Lecue. Sharp oracle inequalities for high-dimensional matrix prediction. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 57(10):6942 ?6957, oct. 2011. [9] M. Kolar and E. P. Xing. On time varying undirected graphs. in Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Artifical Intelligence and Statistics AISTATS, 2011. [10] V. Koltchinskii. The Dantzig selector and sparsity oracle inequalities. Bernoulli, 15(3):799? 828, 2009. [11] V. Koltchinskii. Sparsity in penalized empirical risk minimization. Ann. Inst. Henri Poincar? Probab. Stat., 45(1):7?57, 2009. [12] V. Koltchinskii, K. Lounici, and A. Tsybakov. Nuclear norm penalization and optimal rates for noisy matrix completion. Annals of Statistics, 2011. [13] Y. Koren. Factorization meets the neighborhood: a multifaceted collaborative filtering model. In Proceeding of the 14th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 426?434. ACM, 2008. [14] Y. Koren. Collaborative filtering with temporal dynamics. Communications of the ACM, 53(4):89?97, 2010. [15] D. Liben-Nowell and J. Kleinberg. The link-prediction problem for social networks. Journal of the American society for information science and technology, 58(7):1019?1031, 2007. [16] S.A. Myers and Jure Leskovec. On the convexity of latent social network inference. In NIPS, 2010. [17] H. Raguet, J. Fadili, and G. Peyr?. Generalized forward-backward splitting. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1108.4404, 2011. [18] E. Richard, N. Baskiotis, Th. Evgeniou, and N. Vayatis. Link discovery using graph feature tracking. Proceedings of Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2010. [19] E. Richard, P.-A. Savalle, and N. Vayatis. Estimation of simultaneously sparse and low-rank matrices. In Proceeding of 29th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [20] P. Sarkar, D. Chakrabarti, and A.W. Moore. Theoretical justification of popular link prediction heuristics. In International Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), pages 295?307, 2010. [21] N. Srebro, J. D. M. Rennie, and T. S. Jaakkola. Maximum-margin matrix factorization. In Lawrence K. Saul, Yair Weiss, and L?on Bottou, editors, in Proceedings of Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 1329?1336. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. [22] B. Taskar, M.F. Wong, P. Abbeel, and D. Koller. Link prediction in relational data. In Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 15, 2003. [23] R. S. Tsay. Analysis of Financial Time Series. Wiley-Interscience; 3rd edition, 2005. [24] S. A. van de Geer and P. B?hlmann. On the conditions used to prove oracle results for the Lasso. Electron. J. Stat., 3:1360?1392, 2009. [25] D.Q. Vu, A. Asuncion, D. Hunter, and P. Smyth. Continuous-time regression models for longitudinal networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. MIT Press, 2011. 9
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Small-Variance Asymptotics for Exponential Family Dirichlet Process Mixture Models Ke Jiang, Brian Kulis Department of CSE The Ohio State University {jiangk,kulis}@cse.ohio-state.edu Michael I. Jordan Departments of EECS and Statistics University of California at Berkeley [email protected] Abstract Sampling and variational inference techniques are two standard methods for inference in probabilistic models, but for many problems, neither approach scales effectively to large-scale data. An alternative is to relax the probabilistic model into a non-probabilistic formulation which has a scalable associated algorithm. This can often be fulfilled by performing small-variance asymptotics, i.e., letting the variance of particular distributions in the model go to zero. For instance, in the context of clustering, such an approach yields connections between the kmeans and EM algorithms. In this paper, we explore small-variance asymptotics for exponential family Dirichlet process (DP) and hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models. Utilizing connections between exponential family distributions and Bregman divergences, we derive novel clustering algorithms from the asymptotic limit of the DP and HDP mixtures that features the scalability of existing hard clustering methods as well as the flexibility of Bayesian nonparametric models. We focus on special cases of our analysis for discrete-data problems, including topic modeling, and we demonstrate the utility of our results by applying variants of our algorithms to problems arising in vision and document analysis. 1 Introduction An enduring challenge for machine learning is in the development of algorithms that scale to truly large data sets. While probabilistic approaches?particularly Bayesian models?are flexible from a modeling perspective, lack of scalable inference methods can limit applicability on some data. For example, in clustering, algorithms such as k-means are often preferred in large-scale settings over probabilistic approaches such as Gaussian mixtures or Dirichlet process (DP) mixtures, as the k-means algorithm is easy to implement and scales to large data sets. In some cases, links between probabilistic and non-probabilistic models can be made by applying asymptotics to the variance (or covariance) of distributions within the model. For instance, connections between probabilistic and standard PCA can be made by letting the covariance of the data likelihood in probabilistic PCA tend toward zero [1, 2]; similarly, the k-means algorithm may be obtained as a limit of the EM algorithm when the covariances of the Gaussians corresponding to each cluster goes to zero. Besides providing a conceptual link between seemingly quite different approaches, small-variance asymptotics can yield useful alternatives to probabilistic models when the data size becomes large, as the non-probabilistic models often exhibit more favorable scaling properties. The use of such techniques to derive scalable algorithms from rich probabilistic models is still emerging, but provides a promising approach to developing scalable learning algorithms. This paper explores such small-variance asymptotics for clustering, focusing on the DP mixture. Existing work has considered asymptotics over the Gaussian DP mixture [3], leading to k-meanslike algorithms that do not fix the number of clusters upfront. This approach, while an important first step, raises the question of whether we can perform similar asymptotics over distributions other 1 than the Gaussian. We answer in the affirmative by showing how such asymptotics may be applied to the exponential family distributions for DP mixtures; such analysis opens the door to a new class of scalable clustering algorithms and utilizes connections between Bregman divergences and exponential families. We further extend our approach to hierarchical nonparametric models (specifically, the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) [4]), and we view a major contribution of our analysis to be the development of a general hard clustering algorithm for grouped data. One of the primary advantages of generalizing beyond the Gaussian case is that it opens the door to novel scalable algorithms for discrete-data problems. For instance, visual bag-of-words [5] have become a standard representation for images in a variety of computer vision tasks, but many existing probabilistic models in vision cannot scale to the size of data sets now commonly available. Similarly, text document analysis models (e.g., LDA [6]) are almost exclusively discrete-data problems. Our analysis covers such problems; for instance, a particular special case of our analysis is a hard version of HDP topic modeling. We demonstrate the utility of our methods by exploring applications in text and vision. Related Work: In the non-Bayesian setting, asymptotics for the expectation-maximization algorithm for exponential family distributions were studied in [7]. The authors showed a connection between EM and a general k-means-like algorithm, where the squared Euclidean distance is replaced by the Bregman divergence corresponding to exponential family distribution of interest. Our results may be viewed as generalizing this approach to the Bayesian nonparametric setting. As discussed above, our results may also be viewed as generalizing the approach of [3], where the asymptotics were performed for the DP mixture with a Gaussian likelihood, leading to a k-means-like algorithm where the number of clusters is not fixed upfront. Note that our setting is considerably more involved than either of these previous works, particularly since we will require an appropriate technique for computing an asymptotic marginal likelihood. Other connections between hard clustering and probabilistic models were explored in [8], which proposes a ?Bayesian k-means? algorithm by performing a maximization-expectation algorithm. 2 Background In this section, we briefly review exponential family distributions, Bregman divergences, and the Dirichlet process mixture model. 2.1 The Exponential Family Consider the exponential family with natural parameter ? = {?j }dj=1 ? Rd ; then the exponential family probability density function can be written as [9]:  p(x | ?) = exp hx, ?i ? ?(?) ? h(x) , R where ?(?) = log exp(hx, ?i ? h(x))dx is the log-partition function. Here we assume for simplicity that x is a minimal sufficient statistic for the natural parameter ?. ?(?) can be utilized to compute the mean and covariance of p(x | ?); in particular, the expected value is given by ??(?), and the covariance is ?2 ?(?). Conjugate Priors: In a Bayesian setting, we will require a prior distribution over the natural parameter ?. A convenient property of the exponential family is that a conjugate prior distribution of ? exists; in particular, given any specific distribution in the exponential family, the conjugate prior can be parametrized as [11]:  p(? | ?, ?) = exp h?, ? i ? ??(?) ? m(?, ?) . Here, the ?(?) function is the same as that of the likelihood function. Given a data point xi , the posterior distribution of ? has the same form as the prior, with ? ? ? + xi and ? ? ? + 1. Relationship to Bregman Divergences: Let ? : S ? R be a differentiable, strictly convex function defined on a convex set S ? Rd . The Bregman divergence for any pair of points x, y ? S is defined as D? (x, y) = ?(x) ? ?(y) ? hx ? y, ??(y)i, and can be viewed as a generalized distortion measure. An important result connecting Bregman divergences and exponential families was discussed in [7] (see also [10, 11]), where a bijection between the two was established. A key consequence of this result is that we can equivalently parameterize both p(x | ?) and p(? | ?, ?) in terms of the 2 expectation ?: p(x | ?) = p(x | ?) = exp(?D? (x, ?))f? (x),    ? p(? | ?, ?) = p(? | ?, ?) = exp ? ?D? , ? g? (?, ?), ? where ?(?) is the Legendre-conjugate function of ?(?) (denoted as ? = ? ? ), f? (x) = exp(?(x) ? h(x)), and ? is the expectation parameter which satisfies ? = ??(?) (and also ? = ? ? ). The Bregman divergence representation provides a natural way to parametrize the exponential family distributions with its expectation parameter and, as we will see, we will find it convenient to work with this form. 2.2 Dirichlet Process Mixture Models The Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture model is a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model [12]; unlike most parametric mixture models (Bayesian or otherwise), the number of clusters in a DP mixture is not fixed upfront. Using the exponential family parameterized by the expectation ?c , the likelihood for a data point can be expressed as the following infinite mixture: p(x) = ? X c=1 ?c p(x | ?c ) = ? X ?c exp(?D? (x, ?c ))f? (x). c=1 Even though there are conceptually an infinite number of clusters, the nonparametric prior over the mixing weights causes the weights ?c to decay exponentially. Moreover, a simple collapsed Gibbs sampler can be employed for performing inference in this model [13]; this Gibbs sampler will form the basis of our asymptotic analysis. Given a data set {x1 , ..., xn }, the state of the Markov chain is the set of cluster indicators {z1 , ..., zn } as well as the cluster means of the currently-occupied clusters (the mixing weights have been integrated out). The Gibbs updates for zi , (i = 1, . . . , n), are given by the following conditional probabilities: n?i,c P (zi = c | z?i , xi , ?) = p(xi | ?c ) Z(n ? 1 + ?) Z ? P (zi = cnew | z?i , xi , ?) = p(xi | ?)dG0 , Z(n ? 1 + ?) where Z is the normalizing constant, n?i,c is the number of data points (excluding xi ) that are currently assigned to cluster c, G0 is a prior over ?, and ? is the concentration parameter that determines how likely we are to start a new cluster. If we choose to start a new cluster during the Gibbs update, we sample its mean from the posterior distribution obtained from the prior distribution G0 and the single observation xi . After performing Gibbs moves on the cluster indicators, we update the cluster means ?c by sampling from the posterior of ?c given the data points assigned to cluster c. 3 Hard Clustering for Exponential Family DP Mixtures Our goal is to analyze what happens as we perform small-variance asymptotics on the exponential family DP mixture when running the collapsed Gibbs sampler described earlier, and we begin by considering how to scale the covariance in an exponential family distribution. Given an exponential family distribution p(x | ?) with natural parameter ? and log-partition function ?(?), consider a scaled exponential family distribution whose natural parameter is ?? = ?? and log-partition function ? ?) ? = ??(?/?), ? is ?( where ? > 0. The following result characterizes the relationship between the mean and covariance of the original and scaled exponential family distributions. Lemma 3.1. Denote ?(?) as the mean, and cov(?) as the covariance, of p(x | ?) with log-partition ? ?) ? = ??(?/?), ? ? of the ? ?) ?(?). Given a scaled exponential family with ?? = ?? and ?( the mean ?( ? ? ?), is cov(?)/?. scaled distribution is ?(?) and the covariance, cov( ? = ? ??( ? ?) ? = ?? ??(?/?) ? ? ? ?) This lemma follows directly from ?( = ?? ?(?/?) = ?? ?(?) = ? ? 1 1 2 2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?) = ???(?(?)) = ????(????(?/?)) = ? ? ?? ?(?/?) = ? ? ?2? ?(?) = ?(?), and cov( cov(?)/?. It is perhaps intuitively simpler to observe what happens to the distribution using the 3 Bregman divergence representation. Recall that the generating function ? for the Bregman divergence is given by the Legendre-conjugate of ?. Using standard properties of convex conjugates, we see that the conjugate of ?? is simply ?? = ??. The Bregman divergence representation for the scaled distribution is given by ? = p(x | ?) ? = exp(?D??(x, ?))f ? ??(x) = exp(??D? (x, ?))f?? (x), p(x | ?) where the last equality follows from Lemma 3.1 and the fact that, for a Bregman divergence, D?? (?, ?) = ?D? (?, ?). Thus, as ? increases under the above scaling, the mean is fixed while the distribution becomes increasingly concentrated around the mean. Next we consider the prior distribution under the scaled exponential family. When scaling by ?, we also need to scale the hyper-parameters ? and ?, namely ? ? ? /? and ? ? ?/?. This gives the following prior written using the Bregman divergence, where we are now explicitly conditioning on ?:           ? ? ? /? ? ? ? ? p(?? | ?, ?, ?) = exp ? D?? , ? g?? , = exp ? ?D? , ? g?? , . ? ?/? ? ? ? ? ? ? as it will be necessary for Finally, we compute the marginal likelihood for x by integrating out ?, the Gibbs sampler. Standard algebraic manipulations yield the following: Z ? ? p(?? | ?, ?, ?)d?? p(x | ?, ?, ?) = p(x | ?)      Z ?x + ? ? ? ? ? ?) d?? , A(?,?,?,?) (x) exp ? (? + ?)D? , ?( = f??(x) ? g?? ? ? ? ?+?      Z ? ? ?x + ? d = f??(x) ? g?? , A(?,?,?,?) (x) ? ? ? exp ? (? + ?)D? , ?(?) d?. ? ? ? ?+? (1)  Here, A(?,?,?,?) (x) = exp ? (??(x) + ??( ?? ) ? (? + ?)?( ?x+? ? ?+? )) , which arises when combining the Bregman divergences from the likelihood and the prior. Now we make the following key insight, which will allow us to perform the necessary asymptotics. We can write the integral from the last line above (denoted I below) via Laplace?s method. Since ?x+? ? ? ?? D? ( ?x+? ?+? , ?) has a local minimum (which is global in this case) at ? = ? = ( ?+? ) , we have: d/2 2    ? ?1/2 ? D? ( ?x+? 2? 1 ?x + ? ?+? , ?) ? ,? +O I = exp ? (? + ?)D? T ?+? ?+? ???? ? ?1/2  d/2 2   ?x+? ? ? D? ( ?+? , ?) 2? 1 = +O (2) ?+? ???? T ?  2  ?x+? ? ? D? ( ?+? ,?) ? is the covariance matrix of the likelihood function instantiated at ?? where = cov(?) ???? T ? and approaches cov(x ) when ? goes to ?. Note that the exponential term equals one since the divergence inside is 0. 3.1 Asymptotic Behavior of the Gibbs Sampler We now have the tools to consider the Gibbs sampler for the exponential family DP mixture as we let ? ? ?. As we will see, we will obtain a general k-means-like hard clustering algorithm which utilizes the appropriate Bregman divergence in place of the squared Euclidean distance, and also can vary the number of clusters. Recall the conditional probabilities for performing Gibbs moves on the cluster indicators zi , where we now are considering the scaled distributions: n?i,c P (zi = c | z?i , xi , ?, ?) = exp(??D? (xi , ?c ))f??(xi ) Z ? P (zi = cnew | z?i , xi , ?, ?) = p(xi | ?, ?, ?), Z where Z is a normalization factor, and the marginal probability p(xi | ?, ?, ?) is given by the derivations in (1) and (2). Now, we consider the asymptotic behavior of these probabilities as ? ? ?. We 4 note that ?xi + ? = xi , ??? ? + ? lim and lim A(?,?,?,?) (xi ) = exp(??(?(? /?) ? ?(xi ))), ? ??? and that the Laplace approximation error term goes to zero as ? ? ?. Further, we define ? as a function of ?, ?, and ? (but independent of the data):     d/2 ?1 ? ? 2? ? = g?? , ? ? ?d ? exp(???), ? ? ?+? for some ?. After canceling out the f??(xi ) terms from all probabilities, we can then write the Gibbs probabilities as P (zi = c | z?i , xi , ?, ?) = P (zi = cnew | z?i , xi , ?, ?) = Cxi n?i,c ? exp(??D? (xi , ?c )) Pk ? exp(???) + j=1 n?i,j ? exp(??D? (xi , ?j )) Cxi Cxi ? exp(???) , Pk ? exp(???) + j=1 n?i,j ? exp(??D? (xi , ?j )) where Cxi approaches a positive, finite constant for a given xi as ? ? ?. Now, all of the above probabilities will become binary as ? ? ?. More specifically, all the k + 1 values will be increasingly dominated by the smallest value of {D? (xi , ?1 ), . . . , D? (xi , ?k ), ?}. As ? ? ?, only the smallest of these values will receive a non-zero probability. That is, the data point xi will be assigned to the nearest cluster with a divergence at most ?. If the closest mean has a divergence greater than ?, we start a new cluster containing only xi . Next, we show that sampling ?c from the posterior distribution is achieved by simply computing the empirical mean of a cluster in the limit. During Gibbs sampling, once we have performed one complete set of Gibbs moves on the cluster assignments, we need to sample the ?c conditioned on all assignments and observations. If we let nc be the number of points assigned to cluster c, then the posterior distribution (parameterized by the expectation parameter) for cluster c is    P nc c i=1 ?xi + ? ,? , p(?c | X, z, ?, ?, ?) ? p(Xc | ?c , ?)?p(?c | ?, ?, ?) ? exp ?(?nc +?)D? ?nc + ? where X is all the data, Xc = {xc1 , ..., xcnc } is the set of points currently assigned to cluster c, and z is the set of all current assignments. WePcan see that the mass of the posterior distribution becomes nc xi concentrated around the sample mean i=1 as ? ? ?. In other words, after we determine the nc assignments of data points to clusters, we update the means as the sample mean of the data points in each cluster. This is equivalent to the standard k-means cluster mean update step. 3.2 Objective function and algorithm From the above asymptotic analysis of the Gibbs sampler, we observe a new algorithm which can be utilized for hard clustering. It is as simple as the popular k-means algorithm, but also provides the ability to adapt the number of clusters depending on the data as well as incorporate different distortion measures. The algorithm description is as follows: Pn ? Initialization: input data x1 , . . . , xn , ? > 0, and ?1 = n1 i=1 xn ? Assignment: for each data point xi , compute the Bregman divergence D? (xi , ?c ) to all existing clusters. If minc D? (xi , ?c ) ? ?, then zi,c0 = 1 where c0 = argminc D? (xi , ?c ); otherwise, start a new cluster and set zi,cnew = 1; P ? Mean Update: compute the cluster mean for each cluster, ?j = |l1j | x?lj x, where lj is the set of points in the j-th cluster. We iterate between the assignment and mean update steps until local convergence. Note that the initialization used here?placing all data points into a single cluster?is not necessary, but is one natural way to initialize the algorithm. Also note that the algorithm depends heavily on the choice of ?; heuristics for selecting ? were briefly discussed for the Gaussian case in [3], and we will follow this approach (generalized in the obvious way to Bregman divergences) for our experiments. 5 We can easily show that the underlying objective function for our algorithm is quite similar to that in [3], replacing the squared Euclidean distance with an appropriate Bregman divergence. Recall that the squared Euclidean distance is the Bregman divergence corresponding to the Gaussian distribution. Thus, the objective function in [3] can be seen as a special case of our work. The objective function optimized by our derived algorithm is the following: min {lc }k c=1 k X X D? (x, ?c ) + ?k (3) c=1 x?lc where k is the total number of clusters, ? is the conjugate function of the log-partition function of the chosen exponential family distribution, and ?c is the sample mean of cluster c. The penalty term ? controls the tradeoff between the likelihood and the model complexity, where a large ? favors small model complexity (i.e., fewer clusters) while a small ? favors more clusters. Given the above objective function, our algorithm can be shown to monotonically decrease the objective function value until convergence to some local minima. We omit the proof here as it is almost identical as the proof for Theorem 3.1 in [3]. 4 Extension to Hierarchies A key benefit of the Bayesian approach is its natural ability to form hierarchical models. In the context of clustering, a hierarchical mixture allows one to cluster multiple groups of data?each group is clustered into a set of local clusters, but these local clusters are shared among the groups (i.e., sets of local clusters across groups form global clusters, with a shared global mean). For Bayesian nonparametric mixture models, one way of achieving such hierarchies arises via the hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) [4], which provides a nonparametric approach to allow sharing of clusters among a set of DP mixtures. In this section, we will briefly sketch out the extension of our analysis to the HDP mixture, which yields a natural extension of our methods to groups of data. Given space considerations, and the fact that the resulting algorithm turns out to reduce to Algorithm 2 from [3] with the squared Euclidean distance replaced by an appropriate Bregman divergence, we will omit the full specification of the algorithm here. However, despite the similarity to the existing Gaussian case, we do view the extension to hierarchies as a promising application of our analysis. In particular, our approach opens the door to hard hierarchical algorithms over discrete data, such as text, and we briefly discuss an application of our derived algorithm to topic modeling. We assume that there are J data sets (groups) which we index by j = 1, ..., J. Data point xij refers to data point i from set j. The HDP model can be viewed as clustering each data set into local clusters, but where each local cluster is associated to a global mean. Global means may be shared across data sets. When performing the asymptotics, we require variables for the global means (?1 , ..., ?g ), the associations of data points to local clusters, zij , and the associations of local clusters to global means, vjt , where t indexes the local clusters for a data set. A standard Gibbs sampler considers updates on all of these variables, and in the nonparametric setting does not fix the number of local or global clusters. The tools from the previous section may be nearly directly applied to the hierarchical case. As opposed to the flat model, the hard HDP requires two parameters: a value ?top which is utilized when starting a global (top-level) cluster, and a value ?bottom which is utilized when starting a local cluster. The resulting hard clustering algorithm first performs local assignment moves on the zij , then updates the local cluster assignments, and finally updates all global means. The resulting objective function that is monotonically minimized by our algorithm is given as follows: k X X min D? (xij , ?c ) + ?bottom t + ?top k, (4) {lc }k c=1 c=1 xij ?lc where k is the total number of global clusters and t is the total number of local clusters. The bottomlevel penalty term ?bottom controls both the number of local and top-level clusters, where larger ?bottom tends to give fewer local clusters and more top-level clusters. Meanwhile, the top-level penalty term ?top , as in the one-level case, controls the tradeoff between the likelihood and model complexity. 6 Figure 1: (Left) Example images from the ImageNet data (Persian cat and elephant categories). Each image is represented via a discrete visual-bag-of-words histogram. Clustering via an asymptotic multinomial DP mixture considerably outperforms the asymptotic Gaussian DP mixture; see text for details. (Right) Elapsed time per iteration in seconds of our topic modeling algorithm when running on the NIPS data, as a function of the number of topics. 5 Experiments We conclude with a brief set of experiments highlighting applications of our analysis to discrete-data problems, namely image clustering and topic modeling. For all experiments, we randomly permute the data points at each iteration, as this tends to improve results (as discussed previously, unlike standard k-means, the order in which the data points are processed impacts the resulting clusters). Image Clustering. We first explore an application of our techniques to image clustering, focusing on the ImageNet data [14]. We utilize a subset of this data for quantitative experiments, sampling 100 images from 10 different categories of this data set (Persian cat, African elephant, fire engine, motor scooter, wheelchair, park bench, cello, French horn, television, and goblet), for a total of 1000 images. Each image is processed via standard visual-bag-of-words: SIFT is densely applied on top of image patches in image, and the resulting SIFT vectors are quantized into 1000 visual words. We use the resulting histograms as our discrete representation for an image, as is standard. Some example images from this data set are shown in Figure 1. We explore whether the discrete version of our hard clustering algorithm based on a multinomial DP mixture outperforms the Gaussian mixture version (i.e., DP-means); this will validate our generalization beyond the Gaussian setting. For both the Gaussian and multinomial cases, we utilize a farthest-first approach for both selecting ? as well as initializing the clusters (see [3] for a discussion of farthest-first for selecting ?). We compute the normalized mutual information (NMI) between the true clusters and the results of the two algorithms on this difficult data set. The Gaussian version performs poorly, achieving an NMI of .06 on this data, whereas the hard multinomial version achieves a score of .27. While the multinomial version is far from perfect, it performs significantly better than DP-means. Scalability to large data sets is clearly feasible, given that the method scales linearly in the number of data points. Note that comparisons between the Gibbs sampler and the corresponding hard clustering algorithm for the Gaussian case were considered in [3], where experiments on several data sets showed comparable clustering accuracy results between the sampler and the hard clustering method. Furthermore, for a fully Bayesian model that places a prior on the concentration parameter, the sampler was shown to be considerably slower than the corresponding hard clustering method. Given the similarity of the sampler for the Gaussian and multinomial case, we expect similar behavior with the multinomial Gibbs sampler. Illustration: Scalable Hard Topic Models. We also highlight an application to topic modeling, by providing some qualitative results over two common document collections. Utilizing our general algorithm for a hard version of the multinomial HDP is straightforward. In order to apply the hard hierarchical algorithm to topic modeling, we simply utilize the discrete KL-divergence in the hard exponential family HDP, since topic modeling for text uses a multinomial distribution for the data likelihood. To test topic modeling using our asymptotic approach, we performed analyses using the NIPS 1-121 and the NYTimes [15] datasets. For the NIPS dataset, we use the whole dataset, which contains 1740 total documents, 13649 words in the vocabulary, and 2,301,375 total words. For the NYTimes 1 http://www.cs.nyu.edu/ roweis/data.html 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 NIPS neurons, memory, patterns, activity, response, neuron, stimulus, firing, cortex, recurrent, pattern, spike, stimuli, delay, responses neural, networks, state, weight, states, results, synaptic, threshold, large, time, systems, activation, small, work, weights training, hidden, recognition, layer, performance, probability, parameter, error, speech, class, weights, trained, algorithm, approach, order cells, visual, cell, orientation, cortical, connection, receptive, field, center, tuning, low, ocular, present, dominance, fields energy, solution, methods, function, solutions, local, equations, minimum, hopfield, temperature, adaptation, term, optimization, computational, procedure noise, classifier, classifiers, note, margin, noisy, regularization, generalization, hypothesis, multiclasses, prior, cases, boosting, fig, pattern NYTimes team, game, season, play, games, point, player, coach, win, won, guy, played, playing, record, final percent, campaign, money, fund, quarter, federal, public, pay, cost, according, income, half, term, program, increase president, power, government, country, peace, trial, public, reform, patriot, economic, past, clear, interview, religious, early family, father, room, line, shares, recount, told, mother, friend, speech, expression, won, offer, card, real company, companies, stock, market, business, billion, firm, computer, analyst, industry, internet, chief, technology, customer, number right, human, decision, need, leadership, foundation, number, question, country, strike, set, called, support, law, train Table 1: Sample topics inferred from the NIPS and NYTimes datasets by our hard multinomial HDP algorithm. dataset, we randomly sampled 2971 documents with 10171 vocabulary words, and 853,451 words in total; we also eliminated low-frequency words (those with less than ten occurrences). The prevailing metric to measure the goodness of topic models is perplexity; however, this is based on the predictive probability, which has no counterpart in the hard clustering case. Furthermore, ground truth for topic models is difficult to obtain. This makes quantitative comparisons difficult for topic modeling, and so we therefore focus on qualitative results. Some sample topics (with the corresponding top 15 terms) discovered by our approach from both the NIPS and NYTimes datasets are given in Table 1; we can see that the topics appear to be quite reasonable. Also, we highlight the scalability of our approach: the number of iterations needed for convergence on these data sets ranges from 13 to 25, and each iteration completes in under one minute (see the right side of Figure 1). In contrast, for sampling methods, it is notoriously difficult to detect convergence, and generally a large number of iterations is required. Thus, we expect this approach to scale favorably to large data sets. 6 Conclusion We considered a general small-variance asymptotic analysis for the exponential family DP and HDP mixture model. Crucially, this analysis allows us to move beyond the Gaussian distribution in such models, and opens the door to new clustering applications, such as those involving discrete data. Our analysis utilizes connections between Bregman divergences and exponential families, and results in a simple and scalable hard clustering algorithm which may be viewed as generalizing existing non-Bayesian Bregman clustering algorithms [7] as well as the DP-means algorithm [3]. Due to the prevalence of discrete data in modern computer vision and information retrieval, we hope our algorithms will find use for a variety of large-scale data analysis tasks. We plan to continue to focus on the difficult problem of quantitative evaluations comparing probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods for clustering, particularly for topic models. We also plan to compare our algorithms with recent online inference schemes for topic modeling, particularly the online LDA [16] and online HDP [17] algorithms. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by NSF award IIS-1217433 and by the ONR under grant number N00014-11-1-0688. 8 References [1] M. E. Tipping and C. M. Bishop. Probabilistic principal component analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 21(3):611?622, 1999. [2] S. Roweis. EM algorithms for PCA and SPCA. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 1998. [3] B. Kulis and M. I. Jordan. Revisiting k-means: New algorithms via Bayesian nonparametrics. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [4] Y. W. Teh, M. I. Jordan, M. J. Beal, and D. M. Blei. Hierarchical Dirichlet processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(476):1566?1581, 2006. [5] L. Fei-Fei and P. Perona. A Bayesian hierarchical model for learning natural scene categories. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Patterns Recognition, 2005. [6] D. Blei, A. Ng, and M. I. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [7] A. Banerjee, S. Merugu, I. S. Dhillon, and J. Ghosh. Clustering with Bregman divergences. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1705?1749, 2005. [8] K. Kurihara and M. Welling. Bayesian k-means as a ?Maximization-Expectation? algorithm. Neural Computation, 21(4):1145?1172, 2008. [9] O. Barndorff-Nielsen. Information and Exponential Families in Statistical Theory. Wiley Publishers, 1978. [10] J. Forster and M. K. Warmuth. Relative expected instantaneous loss bounds. In Proceedings of 13th Conference on Computational Learning Theory, 2000. [11] A. Agarwal and H. Daume. A geometric view of conjugate priors. Machine Learning, 81(1):99?113, 2010. [12] N. Hjort, C. Holmes, P. Mueller, and S. Walker. Bayesian Nonparametrics: Principles and Practice. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2010. [13] R. M. Neal. Markov chain sampling methods for Dirichlet process mixture models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 9:249?265, 2000. [14] J. Deng, W. Dong, R. Socher, L.-J. Li, K. Li, and L. Fei-Fei. ImageNet: A large-scale hierarchical image database. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Patterns Recognition, 2009. [15] A. Frank and A. Asuncion. UCI Machine Learning Repository, 2010. [16] M. D. Hoffman, D. M. Blei, and F. Bach. Online learning for Latent Dirichlet Allocation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2010. [17] C. Wang, J. Paisley, and D. M. Blei. Online variational inference for the hierarchical Dirichlet process. 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Transferring Expectations in Model-based Reinforcement Learning Trung Thanh Nguyen, Tomi Silander, Tze-Yun Leong School of Computing National University of Singapore Singapore, 117417 {nttrung, silander, leongty}@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract We study how to automatically select and adapt multiple abstractions or representations of the world to support model-based reinforcement learning. We address the challenges of transfer learning in heterogeneous environments with varying tasks. We present an efficient, online framework that, through a sequence of tasks, learns a set of relevant representations to be used in future tasks. Without predefined mapping strategies, we introduce a general approach to support transfer learning across different state spaces. We demonstrate the potential impact of our system through improved jumpstart and faster convergence to near optimum policy in two benchmark domains. 1 Introduction In reinforcement learning (RL), an agent autonomously learns how to make optimal sequential decisions by interacting with the world. The agent?s learned knowledge, however, is task and environment specific. A small change in the task or the environment may render the agent?s accumulated knowledge useless; costly re-learning from scratch is often needed. Transfer learning addresses this shortcoming by accumulating knowledge in forms that can be reused in new situations. Many existing techniques assume the same state space or state representation in different tasks. While recent efforts have addressed inter-task transfer in different action or state spaces, specific mapping criteria have to be established through policy reuse [7], action correlation [14], state abstraction [22], inter-space relation [16], or other methods. Such mappings are hard to define when the agent operates in complex environments with large state spaces and multiple goal states, with possibly different state feature distributions and world dynamics. To efficiently accomplish varying tasks in heterogeneous environments, the agent has to learn to focus attention on the crucial features of each environment. We propose a system that tries to transfer old knowledge, but at the same time evaluates new options to see if they work better. The agent gathers experience during its lifetime and enters a new environment equipped with expectations on how different aspects of the world affect the outcomes of the agent?s actions. The main idea is to allow an agent to collect a library of world models or representations, called views, that it can consult to focus its attention in a new task. In this paper, we concentrate on approximating the transition model. The reward model library can be learned in an analogous fashion. Effective utilization of the library of world models allows the agent to capture the transition dynamics of the new environment quickly; this should lead to a jumpstart in learning and faster convergence to a near optimal policy. A main challenge is in learning to select a proper view for a new task in a new environment, without any predefined mapping strategies. We will next formalize the problem and describe the method of collecting views into a library. We will then present an efficient implementation of the proposed transfer learning technique. After 1 discussing related work, we will demonstrate the efficacy of our system through a set of experiments in two different benchmark domains. 2 Method In RL, a task environment is typically modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) defined by a tuple (S, A, T, R), where S is a set of states; A is a set of actions; T : S ? A ? S ? [0, 1] is transition function, such that T (s, a, s0 ) = P (s0 |s, a) indicates the probability of transiting to a state s0 upon taking an action a in state s; R : S ? A ? R is a reward function indicating immediate expected reward after an action a is taken in state s. The goal is then to find a policy ? that specifies an action to perform in each state so that the expected accumulated future reward (possibly giving higher weights to more immediate rewards) for each state is maximized [18]. In model-based RL, the optimal policy is calculated based on the estimates of the transition model T and the reward model R which are obtained by interacting with the environment. A key idea of this work is that the agent can represent the world dynamics from its sensory state space in different ways. Such different views correspond to the agent?s decisions to focus attention on only some features of the state in order to quickly approximate the state transition function. 2.1 Decomposition of transition model To allow knowledge transfer from one state space to another, we assume that each state s in all the state spaces can be characterized by a d-dimensional feature vector f (s) ? Rd . The states themselves may or may not be factored. We use the idea in situation calculus [11] to decompose the transition model T in accordance with the possible action effects. In the RL context, an action will stochastically create an effect that determines how the current state changes to the next one [2, 10, 14]. For example, an attempt to move left in a grid world may cause the agent to move one step left or one step forward, with small probabilities. The relative changes in states, ?moved left? and ?moved forward?, are called effects of the action. Formally, let us call MDP with a decomposed transition model CMDP (situation Calculus MDP). CMDP is defined by a tuple (S, A, E, ?, ?, f, R) in which the transition model T has been replaced by the the terms E, ?, ?, f , where E is an effect set and f is a function from states to their feature vectors. ? : S ?A?E ? [0, 1] is an action model such that ? (s, a, e) = P (e | f (s), a) indicates the probability of achieving effect e upon performing action a at state s. Notice that the probability of effect e depends on state s only through the features f (s). While the agent needs to learn the effects of the action, it is usually assumed to understand the meaning of the effects, i.e., how the effects turn each state into a next state. This knowledge is captured in a deterministic function ? : S ? E ? S. Different effects e will change a state s to a different next state s0 = ?(s, e). The MDP transition model T can be reconstructed from the CMDP by the equation: T (s, a, s0 ; ? ) = P (s0 | f (s), a) = ? (s, a, e), (1) where e is the effect of action a that takes s to s0 , if such an e exists, otherwise T (s, a, s0 ; ? ) = 0. The benefit of this decomposition is that while there may be a large number of states, there is usually a limited number of definable effects of actions, and those are assumed to depend only on some features of the states and not on the actual states themselves. We can therefore turn the learning of the transition model into a supervised online classification problem that can be solved by any standard online classification method. More specifically, the classification task is to predict the effect e of an action a in a state s with features f (s). 2.2 A multi-view transfer framework In our framework, the knowledge gathered and transferred by the agent is collected into a library T of online effect predictors or views. A view consists of a structure component f? that picks the features which should be focused on, and a quantitative component ? that defines how these features should be combined to approximate the distribution of action effects. Formally, a view is defined as ? = (f?, ?), such that P (E|S, a; ? ) = P (E|f?(S), a; ?) = ? (S, a, E), in which f? is an orthogonal projection of f (s) to some subspace 2 of Rd . Each view ? is specialized in predicting the effects of one action a(? ) ? A and it yields a probability distribution for the effects of the action a in any state. This prediction is based on the features of the state and the parameters ?(? ) of the view that may be adjusted based on the actual effects observed in the task environment. We denote the subset of views that specify the effects for action a by T a ? T . The main challenge is to build and maintain a comprehensive set of views that can be used in new environments likely resembling the old ones, but at the same time allow adaptation to new tasks with completely new transition dynamics and feature distributions. At the beginning of every new task, the existing library is copied into a working library which is also augmented with fresh, uninformed views, one for each action, that are ready to be adapted to new tasks. We then select, for each action, a view with a good track record. This view is is used to estimate the optimal policy based on the transition model specified in Equation 1, and the policy is used to pick the first action a. The action effect is then used to score all the views in the working library and to adjust their parameters. In each round the selection of views is repeated based on their scores, and the new optimal policy is calculated based on the new selections. At the end of the task, the actual library is updated by possibly recruiting the views that have ?performed well? and retiring those that have not. A more rigorous version of the procedure is described in Algorithm 1. Algorithm 1 TES: Transferring Expectations using a library of views Input: T = {?1 , ?2 , ...}: view library; CMDPj : a new j th task; ?: view goodness evaluator Let T0 be a set of fresh views - one for each action Ttmp ? T ? T0 /* THE WORKING LIBRARY FOR THE TASK */ for all a ? A do T?[a] ? argmax? ?T a ?(?, j) end for /* SELECTING VIEWS */ for t = 0, 1, 2, ... do at ? ? ? (st ), where ? ? is obtained by solving MDP using transition model T? Perform action at and observe effect et at for all ? ? Ttmp ? T at do Score[? ] ? Score[? ] + log ? (st , at , et ) end for at for all ? ? Ttmp do Update view ? based on (f (st ), at , et ) end for ? at Score[? ] T [at ] ? argmax? ?Ttmp /* SELECTING VIEWS */ end for for all a ? A do ? ? ? argmax? ?Ttmp Score[? ]; a a T ? growLibrary(T a , ? ? , Score, j) /* UPDATING LIBRARY */ end for if |T | > M then T ? T ? {argmin? ?T ?(?, j)} end if /* PRUNING LIBRARY */ 2.2.1 Scoring the views To assess the quality of a view ? , we measure its predictive performance by a cumulative log-score. This is a proper score [12] that can be effectively calculated online. Given a sequence Da = (d1 , d2 , . . . , dN ) of observations di = (si , a, ei ) in which action a has resulted in effect ei in state si , the score for an a-specialized ? is S(?, Da ) = N X log ? (si , a, ei ; ?:i (? )), i=1 :i where ? (si , a, ei ; ? (? )) is the probability of event ei given by the event predictor ? based on the features of state si and the parameters ?:i (? ) that may have been adjusted using previous data (d1 , d2 , . . . , di?1 ). 2.2.2 Growing the library After completing a task, the highest scoring new views for each action are considered for recruiting into the actual library. The winning ?newbies? are automatically accepted. In this case, the data has most probably come from the distribution that is far from the any current models, otherwise one of the current models would have had an advantage to adapt and win. 3 The winners ? ? that are adjusted versions of old views ?? are accepted as new members if they score significantly higher than their original versions, based on the logarithm of the prequential likelihood ratio [5] ?(? ? , ??) = S(? ? , Da ) ? S(? ? , Da ). Otherwise, the original versions ?? get their parameters updated to the new values. This procedure is just a heuristic and other inclusion and updating criteria may well be considered. The policy is detailed in Algorithm 2. Algorithm 2 Grow sub-library T a Input: T a , ? ? , Score, j: task index; c: constant; H? ? = {}: empty history record Output: updated library subset T a and winning histories H? ? case ? ? ? T0a do T a ? T a ? {? ? } /* ADD NEWBIE TO LIBRARY */ otherwise do Let ?? ? T be the original, not adapted version of ? ? case Score[? ? ] ? Score[? ? ] > c do T a ? T a ? {? ? } otherwise do T a ? T a ? {? ? } ? {? ?} H? ? ? H?? /* INHERIT HISTORY */ H? ? ? H? ? ? {j} 2.2.3 Pruning the library To keep the library relatively compact, a plausible policy is to remove views that have not performed well for a long time, possibly because there are better predictors or they have become obsolete in the new tasks or environments. To implement such a retiring scheme, each view ? maintains a list H? of task indices that indicates the tasks for which the view has been the best scoring predictor for its specialty action a(? ). We can then calculate the recency weighted track record for each view. In practice, we have adopted the procedure by Zhu et al. [27] that introduces the recency weighted score at time T as X ?(?, T ) = e??(T ?t) , t?H? where ? controls the speed of decay of past success. Other decay functions could naturally also be used. The pruning can then be done by introducing a threshold for recency weighted score or always maintaining the top M views. 3 A view learning algorithm In TES, a view can be implemented by any probabilistic classification model that can be quickly learned online. A popular choice for representing the transition model in factored domains is the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), but learning DBNs is computationally very expensive. Recent studies [24, 25] have shown encouraging results in learning the structure of logistic regression models that can serve as local structures of DBNs. While these models cannot capture all the conditional distributions, their simplicity allows fast online learning in very high dimensional spaces. We introduce an online sparse multinomial logistic regression algorithm to incrementally learn a view. The proposed algorithm is similar to so called group-lasso [26] which has been recently suggested for feature selection among a very large set of features [25].1 Assuming K classes of vectors x ? Rd , each class k is represented with a d-dimensional prototype vector Wk . Classification of an input vector x in logistic regression is based on how ?similar? it is Pd to the prototype vectors. Similarity is measured by the inner product hWk , xi = i=1 Wki xi . The log probability of a class y is defined by log P (y = k|x; Wk ) ? hWk , xi. The classifier can then be parametrized by stacking the Wk vectors as rows into a matrix W = (W1 , ..., WK )T . An online learning system usually optimizes its probabilistic classification performance by minimizing a total loss function through updating its parameters over time. A typical item-wise loss function of a multinomial logistic regression classifier is l(W ) = ? log P (y|x; W ), where (y, x) denotes data item observed at time t. To achieve a parsimonious model in a feature-rich domain, we express our a priori belief that most features are superfluous by introducing a regularization term 1 We report here the details of the method that should allow its replication. A more comprehensive description is available as a separate report in the supplementary material. 4 Pd ? ?(W ) = ? i K||W?i ||2 , where ||W?i ||2 denotes the 2-norm of the ith column of W , and ? is a positive constant. This regularization is similar to that of group lasso [26]. It communicates the idea that it is likely that a whole column of W has zero values (especially, for large ?). A column of all zeros suggests that the corresponding feature is irrelevant for classification. PT The objective function can now be written as t=1 l(W t , dt ) + ?(W t ), where W t is the coefficient matrix learned using t ? 1 previously observed data items. Inspired by the efficient dual averaging method [24] for solving lasso and group lasso [25] logistic regression, we extend the results to the multinomial case. Specifically, the loss minimizing sequence of parameter matrices W t can be achieved by the following online update scheme. Let Gtki be the derivatives of function lt (W ) with respect to Wki . G?t is a matrix of average partial ? t = 1 Pt Gj , where Gj = ?xj (I(y j = k) ? P (k|xj ; W j?1 )). derivatives G ki t j=1 ki ki i Given a K ? d average gradient matrix G?t , and a regularization parameter ? > 0, the ith column of the new parameter matrix W t+1 can be achieved as follows ? ( ? t ||2 ? ? K, ~0 if ||G ?i   t+1 W?i = ?t ??K (2) ?t ? t ||2 ? 1 G?i otherwise, ? ||G ?i where ? > 0 is a constant. The update rule (2) dictates that when the length of the average gradient matrix column is small enough, the corresponding parameter column should be truncated to zero. This introduces feature selection into the model. 4 Related work The survey by Taylor and Stone [20] offers a comprehensive exposition of recent methods to transfer various forms of knowledge in RL. Not much research, however, has focused on transferring transition models. For example, while superficially similar to our framework, the case-based reasoning approaches [4] [13] focus on collecting good decisions instead of building models of world dynamics. Taylor proposes TIMBREL [19] to transfer observations in a source to a target task via manually tailored inter-task mapping. Fernandez et al. [7] transfers a library of policies learned in previous tasks to bias exploration in new tasks. The method assumes a constant inter-task state space, otherwise a state mapping strategy is needed. Hester and Stone [8] describe a method to learn a decision tree for predicting state relative changes which are similar to our action effects. They learn decision trees online by repeatedly applying batch learning. Such a sequence of classifiers forms an effect predictor that could be used as a member of our view library. This work, however, does not directly focus on transfer learning. Multiple models have previously been used to guide behavior in non-stationary environments [6] [15]. Unlike our work, these studies usually assume a common concrete state space. In representation selection, Konidaris and Barto [9] focus on selecting the best abstraction to assist the agent?s skill learning, and Van et al. [21] study using multiple representations together to solve a RL problem. None of these studies, however, solve the problem of transferring knowledge in heterogeneous environments. Atkeson and Santamaria introduce a locally weighted transfer learning technique called LWT to adapt previously learned transition models into a new situation [1]. This study is among the very few that actually consider transferring the transition model to a new task [20]. While their work is conducted in continuous state space using a fixed state similarity measure, it can be adapted to a discrete case. Doing so corresponds to adopting a fixed single view. We will compare our work with this approach in our experiments. This approach could also be extended to be compatible with our work by learning a library of state similarity measures and developing a method to choose among those similarities for each task. Wilson et al. [23] also address the problem of transfer in heterogeneous environments. They formalize the problem as learning a generative Dirichlet process for MDPs and suggest an approximate solution using Gibbs sampling. Our method can be seen as a structure learning enhanced alternative implementation of this generative model. Our online-method is computationally more efficient, but the MCMC estimation should eventually yield more accurate estimates. Both models can also 5 be adjusted to deal with non-stationary task sources. The work by Wilson et al. demonstrates the method for reward models, and it is unclear how to extend the approach for transferring transition models. We will also compare our work with this hierarchical Bayes approach in our experiments. 5 Experiments We examine the performance of our expectation transfer algorithm TES that transfers views to speedup the learning process across different environments in two benchmark domains. We show that TES can efficiently: a) learn the appropriate views online, b) select views using the proposed scoring metric, c) achieve a good jump start, and d) perform well in the long run. To better compare with some related work, we evaluate the performance of TES for transferring both transition models and reward models in RL. TES can be adapted to transfer reward models as follows: Assuming that the rewards follow a Gaussian distribution, a view of the expected reward model can be learned similarly as shown in section 3. We use an online sparse linear regression model instead of the multinomial logistic regression. Simply replacing matrix W by a vector w, and using squared loss function, the coefficient update function can be found similar to that in Equation 2 [24]. When studying reward models, the transition models are assumed to be known. 5.1 Learning views for effective transfer In the first experiment, we compare TES with the locally weighted LWT approach by Atkeson et al. [1] and the non-parametric hierarchical Bayesian approach HB by Wilson et al. [23] in transferring reward models. We adopt the same domain as described in Wilson et al.?s HB paper, but augment each state with 200 random binary features. The objective is to find the optimal route to a known goal state in a color maze. Assuming a deterministic transition model, the highest cumulative reward, determined by the colors around each cell/state, can be achieved on the optimal route. Experiment set-up: Five different reward models are generated by normal Gaussian distributions, each depending on different sets of features. The start state is random. We run experiments on 15 tasks repeatedly 20 times, and conduct leave-one-task-out test. The maximum size M of the views library, initially empty, is set to be 20; threshold c for growing the library is set to be log 300. The parameters for view learning are: ? = 0.05 and ? = 2.5. Table 1: Transfer of reward models: Cumulative reward in the first episodes; Time to solve 15 tasks (in minutes), in which each is run with 200 episodes. Map sizes vary from 20 ? 20 to 30 ? 30. Methods HB LWT TES Tasks Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -108.01 -85.26 -67.46 -90.17 -130.11 -95.42 -46.23 -77.10 -83.91 -51.01 -131.44 -97.05 -90.11 -48.91 -92.31 77.2 -79.41 -114.28 -83.31 -46.70 -245.11 -156.23 -47.05 -49.52 -105.24 -88.19 -174.15 -85.10 -55.45 -101.24 -86.01 28.6 -45.01 -78.23 -62.15 -54.46 -119.76 -115.77 -37.15 -58.09 -167.13 -59.11 -102.46 -45.99 -86.12 -67.23 -81.39 31.5 As seen in Table 1, TES on average wins over HB in 11 and LWT in 12 out of 15 tasks. In the 15 ? 20 = 300 runs TES wins over HB 239 and over LWT 279 times, both yielding binomial test pvalues less than 0.05. This demonstrates that TES can successfully learn the views and utilize them in novel tasks. Moreover, TES runs much faster than HB, and just slightly slower than LWT. Since HB does not learn the relevant features for model representation, it may overfit, and the knowledge learned cannot be easily generalized. It also needs a costly sampling method. Similarly, the strategy for LWT that tries to learn one common model for transfer in various tasks often does not work well. 5.2 Multi-view transfer in complex environments In the second experiment, we evaluate TES in a more challenging domain, transferring transition models. We consider a grid-based robot navigation problem in which each grid-cell has the surface of either sand, soil, water, brick, or fire. In addition, there may be walls between cells. The surfaces and walls determine the stochastic dynamics of the world. However, the agent also observes numerous other features in the environment. The agent has to learn to focus on the relevant features to quickly achieve its goal. The goal is to reach any exit door in the world consuming as little energy as possible. 6 Experiment set-up: The agent can perform four actions (move up, down, left, right) which will lead it to one of the four states around it, or leave it to its current state if it bumps into a wall. The agent will spend 0.01 units of energy to perform an action. It loses 1 unit if falling into a fire, but gains 1 unit when reaching an exit door. A task ends when the agent reaches any exit door or fire. We design fifteen tasks with grid sizes ranging from 20 ? 20 to 30 ? 30. Each task has a different state space and different terminal states. Each state (cell) also has 200 irrelevant random binary features, besides its surface materials and the walls around it. The tasks may have different dynamics as well as different distributions of the surface materials. In our experiments, the environment transition dynamics is generated using three different sets of multinomial logistic regression models so that every combination of cell surfaces and walls around the cell will lead to a different transition dynamics at the cell. The probability of going through a wall is rounded to zero and the freed probability mass is evenly distributed to other effects. The agent?s starting position is randomly picked in each episode. We represent five effects of the actions: moved up, left, down, right, did not move. The maximum size M of the view library, initially empty, is set to be 20; threshold c = log 300. In a new environment, the TES-agent mainly relies on its transferred knowledge. However, we allow some -greedy exploration with  = 0.05. The parameters for view learning algorithm are that ? = 0.05, ? = 1.5. We conduct leave-one-out cross-validation experiment with fifteen different tasks. In each scenario the agent is first allowed to experience fourteen tasks, over 100 episodes in each, and it is then tested on the remaining one task. No recency weighting is used to calculate the goodness of the views in the library. We next discuss experimental results averaged over 20 runs showing 95% confidence intervals (when practical) for some representative tasks. Transferring expectations between homogeneous tasks. To ensure that TES is capable of basic model transfer, we first evaluate it on a simple task to ensure that the learning algorithm in section 3 works. We train and test TES on two environments which have same dynamics and 200 irrelevant binary features that challenge agent?s ability to learn a compact model for transfer. Figure 1a shows how much the other methods lose to TES in terms of accumulated reward in the test task. loreRL is an implementation of TES equipped with the view learning algorithm that does not transfer knowledge. fRmax is the factored Rmax [3] in which the network structures of transition models are provided by an oracle [17]; its parameter m is set to be 10 in all the experiments. fEpsG is a heuristic in which the optimistic Rmax exploration of fRmax is replaced by an -greedy strategy ( = 0.1). The results show that these oracle methods still have to spend time to learn the model parameters, so they gain less accumulated reward than TES. This also suggests that the transferred view of TES is likely not only compact but also accurate. Figure 1a further shows that loreRL and fEpsG are more effective than fRmax in early episodes. fEpsG fRmax loreRL 0 10 20 30 episode (a) 40 50 300 0 accumulated reward 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 accumulated reward difference accumulated reward difference View selection vs. random views. Figure 1b shows how different views lead to different policies and accumulated rewards over the first 50 episodes in a given task. The Rands curves show the accumulated reward difference to TES when the agent follows some random combinations of views from the library. For clarity we show only 5 such random combinations. For all these, the difference turns negative fast in the beginning indicating less reward in early episodes. We conclude that our view selection criterion outperforms random selection. -1 -2 -3 -4 Rands LWT -6 loreRL fEpsG -7 0 10 -5 200 100 0 -100 -200 TES fRmax Rmax -300 -400 20 30 episode (b) 40 50 0 100 200 300 episode 400 500 (c) Figure 1: Performance difference to TES in early trials in a) homogeneous, b) heterogeneous environments. c) Convergence. 7 Table 2: Cumulative reward after first episodes. For example, in Task 1 TES can save (0.616 ? 0.113)/0.01 = 50.3 actions compared to LWT. Tasks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 loreRL -0.681 -0.826 -0.814 -1.068 -0.575 -0.810 -0.529 -0.398 -0.653 -0.518 -0.528 -0.244 -0.173 -1.176 -0.692 LWT 0.113 -0.966 -0.300 0.024 -1.205 -0.345 -1.104 -1.98 -0.057 -0.664 -0.230 -1.228 0.034 0.244 -0.564 TES 0.616 -0.369 0.230 -0.044 -0.541 -0.784 -0.265 0.255 0.001 -0.298 -1.184 -0.077 0.209 0.389 -0.407 Methods Multiple views vs. single view, and non-transfer. We compare the multi-view learning TES agent with a non-transfer agent loreRL, and an LWT agent that tries to learn only one good model for transfer. We also compare with the oracle method fEpsG. As seen in Figure 1b, TES outperforms LWT which, due to differences in the tasks, also performs worse than loreRL. When the earlier training tasks are similar to the test task, the LWT agent performs well. However, the TES agent also quickly picks the correct views, thus we never lose much but often gain a lot. We also notice that TES achieves a higher accumulated reward than loreRL and fEpsG that are bound to make uninformed decisions in the beginning. Table 2 shows the average cumulative reward after the first episode (the jumpstart effect) for each test task in the leave-one-out cross-validation. We observe that TES usually outperforms both the non-transfer and the LWT approach. In all 15 ? 20 = 300 runs, TES wins over LWT 247 times and it wins over loreRL 263 times yielding p-values smaller than 0.05. We also notice that due to its fast capability of capturing the world dynamics, TES running time is just slightly longer than LWT?s and loreRL?s, which do not perform extra work for view switching but need more time and data to learn the dynamics models. Convergence. To study the asymptotic performance of TES, we compare with the oracle method fRmax which is known to converge to a (near) optimal policy. Notice that in this feature-rich domain, fRmax without the pre-defined DBN structure is just similar to Rmax. Therefore, we also compare with Rmax. For Rmax, the number of visits to any state before it is considered ?known? is set to 5, and the exploration probability  for known states starts to decrease from value 0.1. Figure 1c shows the accumulated rewards and their statistical dispersion over episodes. Average performance is reflected by the angles of the curves. As seen, TES can achieve a (near) optimal policy very fast and sustain its good performance over the long run. It is only gradually caught up by fRmax and Rmax. This suggests that TES can successfully learn a good library of views in heterogeneous environments and efficiently utilize those views in novel tasks. 6 Conclusions We have presented a framework for learning and transferring multiple expectations or views about world dynamics in heterogeneous environments. When the environments are different, the combination of learning multiple views and dynamically selecting the most promising ones yields a system that can learn a good policy faster and gain higher accumulated reward as compared to the common strategy of learning just a single good model and using it in all occasions. Utilizing and maintaining multiple models require additional computation and memory. We have shown that by a clever decomposition of the transition function, model selection and model updating can be accomplished efficiently using online algorithms. Our experiments demonstrate that performance improvements in multi-dimensional heterogeneous environments can be achieved with a small computational cost. The current work addresses the question of learning good models, but the problem of learning good policies in large state spaces still remains. Our model learning method is independent of the policy learning task, thus it can well be coupled with any scalable approximate policy learning algorithms. Acknowledgments This research is supported by Academic Research Grants: 251RES1005 from the Ministry of Education in Singapore. 8 MOE2010-T2-2-071 and T1 References [1] Atkeson, C., Santamaria, J.: A comparison of direct and model-based reinforcement learning. In: ICRA?97. vol. 4, pp. 3557?3564 (1997) [2] Boutilier, C., Dearden, R., Goldszmidt, M.: Stochastic dynamic programming with factored representations. Journal of Artificial Intelligence 121, 49?107 (2000) [3] Brafman, R.I., Tennenholtz, M.: R-max - a general polynomial time algorithm for near-optimal reinforcement learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research 3, 213?231 (2002) [4] Celiberto, L.A., Matsuura, J.P., de Mntaras, R.L., Bianchi, R.A.C.: Using cases as heuristics in reinforcement learning: A transfer learning application. In: IJCAI?11. pp. 1211?1217 (2011) [5] Dawid, A.: Statistical theory: The prequential approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 147, 278?292 (1984) [6] Doya, K., Samejima, K., Katagiri, K.i., Kawato, M.: Multiple model-based reinforcement learning. Neural Computation 14, 1347?1369 (June 2002) [7] Fern?andez, F., Garc??a, J., Veloso, M.: Probabilistic policy reuse for inter-task transfer learning. Robot and Autonomous System 58, 866?871 (July 2010) [8] Hester, T., Stone, P.: Generalized model learning for reinforcement learning in factored domains. In: AAMAS?09. vol. 2, pp. 717?724 (2009) [9] Konidaris, G., Barto, A.: Efficient skill learning using abstraction selection. In: IJCAI?09. pp. 1107?1112 (2009) [10] Leffler, B.R., Littman, M.L., Edmunds, T.: Efficient reinforcement learning with relocatable action models. In: AAAI?07. vol. 1, pp. 572?577 (2007) [11] McCarthy, J.: Situations, actions, and causal laws. Tech. Rep. Memo 2, Stanford Artificial Intelligence Project, Stanford University (1963) [12] Savage, L.J.: Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 66(336), 783?801 (1971) [13] Sharma, M., Holmes, M., Santamaria, J., Irani, A., Isbell, C., Ram, A.: Transfer learning in real-time strategy games using hybrid cbr/rl. In: IJCAI?07. pp. 1041?1046 (2007) [14] Sherstov, A.A., Stone, P.: Improving action selection in MDP?s via knowledge transfer. In: AAAI?05. vol. 2, pp. 1024?1029 (2005) [15] Silva, B.C.D., Basso, E.W., Bazzan, A.L.C., Engel, P.M.: Dealing with non-stationary environments using context detection. In: ICML?06. pp. 217?224 (2006) [16] Soni, V., Singh, S.: Using homomorphisms to transfer options across continuous reinforcement learning domains. In: AAAI?06. pp. 494?499 (2006) [17] Strehl, A.L., Diuk, C., Littman, M.L.: Efficient structure learning in factored-state MDPs. In: AAAI?07. pp. 645?650 (2007) [18] Sutton, R.S., Barto, A.G.: Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press (1998) [19] Taylor, M.E., Jong, N.K., Stone, P.: Transferring instances for model-based reinforcement learning. In: Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases. LNAI, vol. 5212 (2008) [20] Taylor, M.E., Stone, P.: Transfer learning for reinforcement learning domains: A survey. Journal of Machine Learning Research 10, 1633?1685 (December 2009) [21] Van Seijen, H., Bakker, B., Kester, L.: Switching between different state representations in reinforcement learning. In: Proceedings of the 26th IASTED International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Applications. pp. 226?231 (2008) [22] Walsh, T.J., Li, L., Littman, M.L.: Transferring state abstractions between MDPs. In: ICML Workshop on Structural Knowledge Transfer for Machine Learning (2006) [23] Wilson, A., Fern, A., Ray, S., Tadepalli, P.: Multi-task reinforcement learning: A hierarchical Bayesian approach. In: ICML?07. pp. 1015?1023 (2007) [24] Xiao, L.: Dual averaging methods for regularized stochastic learning and online optimization. In: NIPS?09 (2009) [25] Yang, H., Xu, Z., King, I., Lyu, M.R.: Online learning for group Lasso. In: ICML?10 (2010) [26] Yuan, M., Lin, Y.: Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables. 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Majorization for CRFs and Latent Likelihoods Anna Choromanska Department of Electrical Engineering Columbia University [email protected] Tony Jebara Department of Computer Science Columbia University [email protected] Abstract The partition function plays a key role in probabilistic modeling including conditional random fields, graphical models, and maximum likelihood estimation. To optimize partition functions, this article introduces a quadratic variational upper bound. This inequality facilitates majorization methods: optimization of complicated functions through the iterative solution of simpler sub-problems. Such bounds remain efficient to compute even when the partition function involves a graphical model (with small tree-width) or in latent likelihood settings. For large-scale problems, low-rank versions of the bound are provided and outperform LBFGS as well as first-order methods. Several learning applications are shown and reduce to fast and convergent update rules. Experimental results show advantages over state-of-the-art optimization methods. 1 Introduction The estimation of probability density functions over sets of random variables is a central problem in learning. Estimation often requires minimizing the partition function as is the case in conditional random fields (CRFs) and log-linear models [1, 2]. Training these models was traditionally done via iterative scaling and bound-majorization methods [3, 4, 5, 6, 1] which achieved monotonic convergence. These approaches were later surpassed by faster first-order methods [7, 8, 9] and then second-order methods such as LBFGS [10, 11, 12]. This article revisits majorization and repairs its slow convergence by proposing a tighter bound on the log-partition function. The improved majorization outperforms state-of-the-art optimization tools and admits multiple versatile extensions. Many decomposition methods for conditional random fields and structured prediction have sought to render the learning and prediction problems more manageable [13, 14, 15]. Our decomposition, however, hinges on bounding and majorization: decomposing an optimization of complicated functions through the iterative solution of simpler sub-problems [16, 17]. A tighter bound provides convergent monotonic minimization while outperforming first- and second-order methods in practice1 . The bound applies to graphical models [18], latent variable situations [17, 19, 20, 21] as well as high-dimensional settings [10]. It also accommodates convex constraints on the parameter space. This article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the bound and Section 3 uses it for majorization in CRFs. Extensions to latent likelihood are shown in Section 4. The bound is extended to graphical models in Section 5 and high dimensional problems in Section 6. Section 7 provides experiments and Section 8 concludes. The Supplement contains proofs and additional results. 2 Partition Function Bound Consider a log-linear density model over discrete y ? ? ( ) 1 h(y) exp ? ? f (y) p(y|?) = Z(?) 1 Recall that some second-order methods like Newton-Raphson are not monotonic and may even fail to converge for convex cost functions [4] unless, of course, line searches are used. 1 which is parametrized by a vector ? ? Rd of dimensionality d ? N. Here, f : ? 7? Rd is any vector-valued function mapping an input y to some arbitrary vector. The prior h : ? 7? R+ is a fixed non-negative measure. The partition function Z(?) is a scalar that ensures that p(y|?) ? normalizes, i.e. Z(?) = y h(y) exp(? ? f (y)). Assume that the number of configurations of y is |?| = n and is finite2 . The partition function is clearly log-convex in ? and a linear lower-bound is given via Jensen?s inequality. This article contributes an analogous quadratic upper-bound on the partition function. Algorithm 1 computes3 the bound?s parameters and Theorem 1 shows the precise guarantee it provides. Algorithm 1 ComputeBound ? f (y), h(y) ?y ? ? Input Parameters ?, + Init z ? 0 , ? = 0, ? = zI For each y ? ? { ? = h(y) exp(??? f (y)) l = f (y) ? ? tanh( 21 log(?/z)) ? ?+= ll 2 log(?/z) ? ? + = z+? l z += ? } Output z, ?, ? 0.35 0.3 log(Z) and Bounds 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 ?5 0 ? 5 ? ? ?(? ? ?) ? + (? ? ?) ? ??) upperTheorem 1 Algorithm 1 finds z, ?, ? such that z exp( 12 (? ? ?) ? ? d + ? f (y) ? R and h(y) ? R for all y ? ?. bounds Z(?) = y h(y) exp(? f (y)) for any ?, ?, Proof 1 (Sketch, See Supplement for Formal Proof) Recall the bound log(e? + e?? ) ? c?2 [22]. ? ? ? ? Obtain a multivariate variant log(e? 1 + e?? 1 ). Tilt the bound to handle log(h1 e? f1 + h2 e? f2 ). ? ? ? Add an additional exponential term to get log(h1 e? f1 + h2 e? f2 + h3 e? f3 ). Iterate the last step to extend to n elements in the summation. The bound improves previous inequalities and its proof is in the Supplement. It tightens [4, 19] since it avoids wasteful curvature tests (it uses duality theory to compare the bound and the optimized function rather than compare their Hessians). It generalizes [22] which only holds for n = 2 and h(y) constant; it generalizes [23] which only handles a simplified one-dimensional case. The bound is computed using Algorithm 1 by iterating over the y variables (?for each y ? ??) according to an arbitrary ordering via the bijective function ? : ? 7? {1, . . . , n} which defines i = ?(y). The order in which we enumerate over ? slightly varies the ? in the bound (but not the ? and z) when |?| > 2. However, we empirically investigated the influence of various orderings on bound performance (in all the experiments presented in Section 7) and noticed no significant effect across ordering ? schemes. Recall that choosing ? = y h(y) exp(??? f (y))(f (y) ? ?)(f (y) ? ?)? with ? and z as in Algorithm 1 yields the second-order Taylor approximation (the Hessian) of the log-partition function. Algorithm 1 replaces a sum of log-linear models with a single log-quadratic model which makes monotonic majorization straightforward. The figure inside Algorithm 1 depicts the bound on ? If there are no constraints on the parameters (i.e. any ? ? Rd log Z(?) for various choices of ?. is admissible), a simple closed-form iterative update rule emerges: ?? ? ?? ? ??1 ?. Alternatively, if ? must satisfy linear (convex) constraints it is straightforward to compute an update by solving a quadratic (convex) program. This update rule is interleaved with the bound computation. 3 Conditional Random Fields and Log-Linear Models The partition function arises naturally in maximum entropy estimation or minimum relative entropy estimation (cf. Supplement) as well as in conditional extensions of the maximum entropy paradigm where the model is conditioned on an observed input. Such models are known as conditional random fields and have been useful for structured prediction problems [1, 24]. CRFs are given a data-set {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xt , yt )} of independent identically-distributed (iid) input-output pairs where yj is 2 3 Here, assume n is enumerable. Later, for larger spaces use O(n) to denote the time to compute Z. By continuity, take tanh( 12 log(1))/(2 log(1)) = 14 and limz?0+ tanh( 12 log(?/z))/(2 log(?/z)) = 0. 2 the observed sample in a (discrete) space ?j conditioned on the observed input xj . A CRF defines a distribution over all y ? ?j (of which yj is a single element) as the log-linear model p(y|xj , ?) = 1 hx (y) exp(? ? fxj (y)) Zxj (?) j ? ? where Zxj (?) = y??j hxj (y) exp(? fxj (y)). For the j?th training pair, we are given a nonnegative function hxj (y) ? R+ and a vector-valued function fxj (y) ? Rd defined over the domain y ? ?j . In this section, for simplicity, assume n = maxtj=1 |?yj |. Each partition function Zxj (?) is a function of ?. The parameter ?? for CRFs is estimated by maximizing the regularized conditional t 4 2 + log-likelihood or log-posterior: j=1 log p(yj |xj , ?) ? t? 2 ??? where ? ? R is a regularizer set using prior knowledge or cross-validation. Rewriting gives the objective of interest J(?) = t ? j=1 log hxj (yj ) + ? ? fxj (yj ) ? Zxj (?) 2 t? 2 ??? . (1) If prior knowledge (or constraints) restrict the solution vector to a convex hull ?, the maximization problem becomes arg max??? J(?). Algorithm 2 proposes a method for maximizing the regularized conditional likelihood J(?) or, equivalently minimizing the partition function Z(?). It solves the problem in Equation 1 subject to convex constraints by interleaving the quadratic bound with a quadratic programming procedure. Theorem 2 establishes the convergence of the algorithm and the proof is in the Supplement. Algorithm 2 ConstrainedMaximization 0: Input xj , yj and functions hxj , fxj for j = 1, . . . , t, regularizer ? ? R+ and convex hull ? ? Rd 1: Initialize ?0 anywhere inside ? and set ?? = ?0 While not converged 2: For j = 1, . . . , t Get ?j , ?j from hxj , fxj , ?? via Algorithm 1 ? ? ? ?(?j +?I)(? ? ?) ? + ? ? ? (?j ? fx (yj ) + ??) 3: Set ?? = arg min??? j 12 (? ? ?) j j ? ? 4: Output ? = ? Theorem 2 For any ?0 ? ?, all ?fxj (y)? ? r and all |?j | ? n, Algorithm 2 ? ? J(?0 ) ? (1 ? ?) max??? (J(?) ? J(?0 )) in more than outputs a ?? (such that J(?) ? (1) ?n?1 tanh(log(i)/2) ?1 )? ? log ? / log 1 + 2r2 ( i=1 ) iterations. log(i) ( ) ?n?1 ?n?1 i?1 n The series i=1 tanh(log(i)/2) = i=1 (i+1) log(i) log(i) is the logarithmic integral which is O log n asymptotically [26]. The next sections show how to handle hidden variables in the learning problem, exploit graphical modeling, and further accelerate the underlying algorithms. 4 Latent Conditional Likelihood Section 3 showed how the partition function is useful for maximum conditional likelihood problems involving CRFs. In this section, maximum conditional likelihood is extended to the setting where some variables are latent. Latent models may provide more flexibility than fully observable models [21, 27, 28]. For instance, hidden conditional random fields were shown to outperform generative hidden-state and discriminative fully-observable models [21]. Consider the latent setting where we are given t iid samples x1 , . . . , xt from some unknown distribution p?(x) and t corresponding samples y1 , . . . , yt drawn from identical conditional distributions p?(y|x1 ), . . . , p?(y|xt ) respectively. Assume that the true generating distributions p?(x) and p?(y|x) are unknown. Therefore, we aim to estimate a conditional distribution p(y|x) from some set of hypotheses that achieves high conditional likelihood given the data-set D = {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xt , yt )}. 4 Alternatively, variational Bayesian approaches can be used instead of maximum likelihood via expectation propagation (EP) or power EP [25]. These, however, assume Gaussian posterior distributions over parameters, require approximations, are computationally expensive and are not necessarily more efficient than BFGS. 3 We will select this conditional distribution by assuming it emerges from a conditioned joint distribution over x and y as well as a hidden variable m which is being marginalized as p(y|x, ?) = ? p(x,y,m|?) ? m . Here m ? ?m represents a discrete hidden variable, x ? ?x is an input and y,m p(x,y,m|?) y ? ?y is a discrete output variable. The parameter ? contains all parameters that explore the function class of such conditional distributions. The latent likelihood of the data L(?) = p(D|?) subsumes Equation 1 and is the new objective of interest t ? t ? ? p(xj , yj , m|?) ?m L(?) = p(yj |xj , ?) = . (2) y,m p(xj , y, m|?) j=1 j=1 A good choice of the parameters is one that achieves a large conditional likelihood value (or posterior) on the data set D. Next, assume that each p(x|y, m, ?) is an exponential family distribution ( ? ) p(x|y, m, ?) = h(x) exp ?y,m ?(x) ? a(?y,m ) where each conditional is specified by a function h : ?x 7? R+ and a feature mapping ? : ?x 7? Rd which are then used to derive the normalizer a : Rd 7? R+ . A parameter ?y,m ? Rd selects a specific distribution. Multiply each exponential family term by an unknown marginal dis? tribution called the mixing proportions p(y, m|?) = ? y,m ?y,m . This is parametrized by an uny,m known parameter ? = {?y,m } ?y, m where ?y,m ? [0, ?). Finally, the collection of all parameters is ? = {?y,m , ?y,m } ?y, m. Thus, we have the complete likelihood p(x, y, m|?) = ( ? ) ?y,m h(x) ? exp ? ?(x) ? a(? ) . Insert this expression into Equation 2 and remove cony,m y,m ? y,m y,m stant factors that appear in both denominator and numerator. Apply the change of variables exp(?y,m ) = ?y,m exp(?a(?y,m )) and rewrite the objective as a function5 of a vector ?: ( ) ? ( ? ) ? t t ? exp ? ?(x ) + ? ? ? j yj ,m yj ,m m m exp ? fj,yj ,m ( ) = ? ? L(?) = . ? ? y,m exp (? fj,y,m ) y,m exp ?y,m ?(xj ) + ?y,m j=1 j=1 The last equality emerges by rearranging all ? parameters as a vector ? ? R|?y ||?m |(d+1) equal to ? |?y ||?m |(d+1) ? ? ?1,2 ? ? ? ?|? ?|?y |,|?m | ]? and introducing fj,?y,m defined ?1,1 ?1,2 [?1,1 ? ? R y |,|?m | ? ? ? ? ? as [[?(xj ) 1]?[(?y,m)=(1,1)] ? ??? [?(xj ) 1]?[(? y ,m)=(|? ? (thus the feature vector [?(xj ) 1] is y |,|?m |)]] positioned appropriately in the longer fj,?y,m ? vector which is elsewhere zero). We will now find a ? which is tight when ? = ?? such that L(?) ? = Q(?, ? ?). ? variational lower bound on L(?) ? Q(?, ?) We proceed by bounding each numerator and each denominator in the product over j = 1, . . . , t. Apply Jensen?s inequality to lower bound each numerator term as ? ? ( ) ?? m ?j,m fj,yj ,m ? m ?j,m log ?j,m exp ? ? fj,yj ,m ? e? m ?? where ?j,m = (e? fj,yj ,m ? ? ??? f ? )/( m? e j,yj ,m ). Algorithm 1 then bounds the denominator ( ) exp ? ? fj,y,m 1 ? ? ? zj e 2 (???) ? ? ? ?j ?j (???)+(?? ?) . y,m The overall lower bound on the likelihood is then ? ? ?(?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?)?(?? ?) ? = L(?)e ? ? 12 (???) Q(?, ?) ? ? ? = ?t ?j and ? ? = tj=1 (?j ? m ?j,m fj,yj ,m ). The right hand side is simply an where ? j=1 exponentiated quadratic function in ? which is easy to maximize. This yields an iterative scheme similar to Algorithm 2 for monotonically maximizing latent conditional likelihood. 5 Graphical Models for Large n The bounds in the previous sections are straightforward to compute when ? is small. However, for graphical models, enumerating over ? can be daunting. This section provides faster algorithms 5 It is now easy to regularize L(?) by adding ? t? ???2 . 2 4 that recover the bound efficiently for graphical models of bounded tree-width. A graphical model represents the factorization of a probability density function. This article will consider the factor graph notation of a graphical model. A factor graph is a bipartite graph G = (V, W, E) with variable vertices V = {1, . . . , k}, factor vertices W = {1, . . . , m} and a set of edges E between V and W . In addition, define a set of random variables Y = {y1 , . . . , yk } each associated with the elements of V and a set of non-negative scalar functions ? = {?1 , . . . , ?m } each associated ? with the elements of W . The factor graph implies that p(Y ) factorizes as p(y1 , . . . , yk ) = Z1 c?W ?c (Yc ) where Z is a normalizing partition function (the dependence on parameters is suppressed here) and Yc is a subset of the random variables that are associated with the neighbors of node c. In other words, Yc = {yi |i ? Ne(c)} where Ne(c) is the set of vertices that are neighbors of c. Inference in graphical models requires the evaluation and the optimization of Z. These computations can be NP-hard in general yet are efficient when G satisfies certain properties (low tree-width). Consider a log-linear model (a function class) indexed by a parameter ? ? ? in a convex hull ? ? Rd as follows ( ) 1 ? p(Y |?) = hc (Yc ) exp ? ? fc (Yc ) Z(?) c?W ( ? ) where Z(?) = Y c?W hc (Yc ) exp ? fc (Yc ) . The model is defined by a set of vector-valued functions fc (Yc ) ? Rd and scalar-valued functions hc (Yc ) ? R+ . Choosing a function from the function class hinges on estimating ? by optimizing Z(?). However, Algorithm 1 may be inapplicable due to the large number of configurations in Y . Instead, consider a more efficient surrogate algorithm which computes the same bound parameters by efficiently exploiting the factorization of the graphical model. This is possible since exponentiated quadratics are closed under multiplication and the required bound computations distribute nicely across decomposable graphical models. ? ? Algorithm 3 JunctionTreeBound Input Reverse-topological tree T with c = 1, . . . , m factors hc (Yc ) exp(??? fc (Yc )) and ?? ? Rd For c = 1, . . . , m If (c < m) {Yboth = Yc ? Ypa(c) , Ysolo = Yc \ Ypa(c) } Else {Yboth = {}, Ysolo = Yc } For each u ? Yboth { Initialize zc|x ? 0+ , ?c|x = 0, ?c|x = zc|x I For each v ? Ysolo { w = u ? v; ? ? ?? ?w = hc (w)e? fc (w) b?ch(c)zb|w ; lw = fc (w) ? ?c|u + b?ch(c) ?b|w ; ? tanh( 21 log( z w )) ? c|u ?w ?c|u = b?ch(c)?b|w+ zc|u = ?w ; }} lw l? ?w w ; ?c|u = zc|u +?w lw ; 2 log( z Output c|u ) Bound as z = zm , ? = ?m , ? = ?m Begin by assuming that the graphical model in question is a junction tree and satisfies the running intersection property [18]. In Algorithm 3 (the Supplement provides a proof of its correctness), take ch(c) to be the set of children-cliques of clique c and pa(c) to be the parent of c. Note that the algorithm enumerates over u ? Ypa(c) ? Yc and v ? Yc \ Ypa(c) . The algorithm stores a quadratic bound for each configuration of u (where u is the set of variables in common across both clique c and its parent). It then forms the bound by summing over v ? Yc \ Ypa(c) , each configuration of each variable a clique c has that is not shared with its parent clique. The algorithm also collects precomputed bounds from children of c. Also define w = u ? v ? Yc as the conjunction of both indexing variables u and v. Thus, the two inner for loops enumerate over all configurations w ? Yc of each clique. Note that w is used to query the children b ? ch(c) of a clique c to report their bound parameters zb|w , ?b|w , ?b|w . This is done for each configuration w of the clique c. Note, however, that not every variable in clique c is present in each child b so only the variables in w that intersect Yb are relevant in indexing the parameters zb|w , ?b|w , ?b|w and the remaining variables do not change the values of zb|w , ?b|w , ?b|w . Algorithm 3 is efficient in the sense that computations involve enumerating over all configurations of each clique in the junction tree rather than over all configurations of Y . This shows that the 5 ? computation involved is O( c |Yc |) rather than O(|?|) as in Algorithm 1.?Thus, for estimating the computational efficiency of various algorithms in this article, take n = c |Yc | for the graphical model case rather than n = |?|. Algorithm 3 is a simple extension of the known recursions that are used to compute the partition function and its gradient vector. Thus, in addition to the ? matrix which represents the curvature of the bound, Algorithm 3 is recovering the partition function value ? log Z(?) z and the gradient since ? = . ?? ?=?? 6 Low-Rank Bounds for Large d In many realistic situations, the dimensionality d is large and this prevents the storage and inversion of the matrix ?. We next present a low-rank extension that can be applied to any of the algorithms presented so far. As an example, consider Algorithm 4 which is a low-rank incarnation of Algorithm 2. Each iteration of Algorithm 2 requires O(tnd2 + d3 ) time since step 2 computes several ?j ? Rd?d matrices and 3 performs inversion. Instead, the new algorithm provides a low-rank version of the bound which still majorizes the log-partition function but re? quires only O(tnd) complexity (putting it on par with LBFGS). First, note that step 3 in AlgoAlgorithm 4 LowRankBound ? regularizer ? ? R+ , model ft (y) ? Rd and ht (y) ? R+ and rank k ? N Input Parameter ?, Initialize S = 0 ? Rk?k , V = orthonormal ? Rk?d , D = t?I ? diag(Rd?d ) For each t { Set z ? 0+ ; ? = 0; For each y{ ? ?? ft (y) ? = ht (y)e? ; r= ? tanh( 12 log( z )) ? (ft (y) ? 2 log( z ) ? ? ?) ; For i = 1, . . . , k : p(i) = r V(i, ?); r = r ? p(i)V(i, ?); For i = 1, . . . , k : For j = 1, . . . , k : S(i, j) = S(i, j) + p(i)p(j); Q? AQ = svd(S); S ? A; V ? QV; s = [S(1, 1), . . . , S(k, k), ?r?2 ]? ; k? = arg mini=1,...,k+1 s(i); ? k)1 ? ? |V(j, ?)| diag(|V(k, ?)|); if (k? ? k) { D = D + S(k, 2 ? k) ? = ?r? ; r = ?r??1 r; V(k, ?) = r; } S(k, else { D = D + 1? |r|diag(|r|); } } ? ? + = z+? (ft (y) ? ?); z + = ?; }} Output S ? diag(Rk?k ), V ? Rk?d , D ? diag(Rd?d ) ?t rithm 2 can be written as ?? = ?? ? ??1 u where u = t??? + j=1 ?j ? fxj (yj ). Clearly, Algorithm 1 can recover u by only computing ?j for j = 1, . . . , t and skipping all steps involving matrices. This merely requires O(tnd) work. Second, we store ? using a low-rank representation V? SV + D where V ? Rk?d is orthonormal, S ? Rk?k is positive semi-definite, and D ? Rd?d is non-negative diagonal. Rather ? than 1increment the matrix by a rank one update of the tanh( 2 log(?/z)) ? form ?i = ?i?1 + ri ri where ri = (fi ? ?i ), simply project ri onto each 2 log(?/z) eigenvector in V and update matrix S and V via a singular value decomposition (O(k 3 ) work). After removing k such projections, the remaining residual from ri forms a new eigenvector ek+1 and its magnitude forms a new singular value. The resulting rank (k + 1) system is orthonormal with (k + 1) singular values. We discard its smallest singular value and corresponding eigenvector to revert back to an order k eigensystem. However, instead of merely discarding we can absorb the smallest singular value and eigenvector into the D component by bounding the remaining outer? product with a diagonal term. This provides a guaranteed overall upper bound in O(tnd) (k is assumed to be logarithmic with dimension d). Finally, to invert ?, we apply the Woodbury formula: ??1 = D?1 + D?1 V? (S?1 + VD?1 V? )?1 VD?1 which only requires O(k 3 ) work. A proof of correctness for Algorithm 4 can be found in the Supplement. 7 Experiments We first focus on the logistic regression task and compare the performance of the bound (using the low-rank Algorithm 2) with first-order and second order methods such as LBFGS, conjugate gradient (CG) and steepest descent (SD). We use 4 benchmark data-sets: the SRBCT and Tumors 6 data-sets from [29] as well as the Text and SecStr data-sets from http://olivier.chapelle.cc/sslbook/benchmarks.html. For all experiments in this section, the setup is as follows. Each data-set is split into training (90%) and testing (10%) parts. All implementations are run on the same hardware with C++ code. The termination criterion for all algorithms is a change in estimated parameter or function values smaller than 10?6 (with a ceiling on the number of iterations of 106 ). Results are averaged over 10 random initializations close to 0. The regularization parameter ?, when used, was chosen through crossvalidation. In Table 1 we report times in seconds and the number of iterations for each algorithm (including LBFGS) to achieve the LBFGS termination solution modulo a small constant ? (set to 10?4 ). Table 1 also provides data-set sizes and regularization values. The first 4 columns in Table 1 provide results for this experiment. Data-set Size Algorithm LBFGS SD CG Bound SRBCT Tumors Text SecStr n=4 n = 26 n=2 n=2 t = 83 t = 308 t = 1500 t = 83679 d = 9236 d = 390260 d = 23922 d = 632 ? = 101 ? = 101 ? = 102 ? = 101 time iter time iter time iter time iter 6.10 42 3246.83 8 15.54 7 881.31 47 7.27 43 18749.15 53 153.10 69 1490.51 79 40.61 100 14840.66 42 57.30 23 667.67 36 3.67 8 1639.93 4 6.18 3 27.97 9 CoNLL PennTree m=9 m = 45 t = 1000 t = 1000 d = 33615 d = 14175 ? = 101 ? = 101 time iter time iter 25661.54 17 62848.08 7 93821.72 12 156319.31 12 88973.93 23 76332.39 18 16445.93 4 27073.42 2 Table 1: Time in seconds and iterations required to obtain within ? of the LBFGS solution (where ? = 10?4 ) for logistic regression problems (on SRBCT, Tumors, Text and SecStr data-sets where n is the number of classes) and Markov CRF problems (on CoNLL and PennTree data-sets, where m is the number of classes). Here, t is the total number of samples (training and testing), d is the dimensionality of the feature vector and ? is the cross-validated regularization setting. Structured prediction problems are explored using two popular data-sets. The first one contains Spanish news wire articles from the a session of the CoNLL 2002 conference. This corpus involves a named entity recognition problem and consists of sentences where each word is annotated with one of m = 9 possible labels. The second task is from the PennTree Bank. This corpus involves a tagging problem and consists of sentences where each word is labeled with one of m = 45 possible parts-of-speech. A conditional random field is estimated with a Markov chain structure to give word labels a sequential dependence. The features describing the words are constructed as in [30]. Two last columns of Table 1 provide results for this experiment. We used the low-rank version of Algorithm 3. In both experiments, the bound always remained fastest as indicated in bold. Data?set Bound EM 5 5 5 0 0 0 ?5 ?5 ?5 ?10 ?10 ?10 ?15 ?15 ?15 ?20 ?20 ?20 ?25 ?5 0 5 10 15 20 ?25 25 ?5 0 5 10 15 20 25 ?25 ?5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Figure 1: Classification boundaries using the bound and EM for a toy latent likelihood problem. We next performed experiments with maximum latent conditional likelihood problems. We denote by m the number of hidden variables. Due to the non-concavity of this objective, we are most interested in finding good local maxima. We start with a simple toy experiment from [19] comparing the bound to the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in the binary classification problem presented on the left image of Figure 1. The model incorrectly uses only 2 Gaussians per class while the data is generated using 8 Gaussians total. On Figure 1 we show the decision boundary obtained using the bound (with m = 2) and EM. EM performs as well as random chance guessing while the bound classifies the data very well. The average test log-likelihood obtained by EM was -1.5e+06 while the bound obtained -21.8. 7 We next compared the algorithms (the bound, Newton-Raphson, BFGS, CG and SD) in maximum latent conditional likelihood problems on five benchmark data-sets. These included four UCI datasets6 (ion, bupa, hepatitis and wine) and the previously used SRBCT data-set. The feature mapping used was ?(x) = x ? Rd which corresponds to a mixture Gaussian-gated logistic regressions (obtained by conditioning a mixture of m Gaussians per class). We used a value of ? = 0 throughout the latent experiments. We explored setting m ? {1, 2, 3, 4}. Table 2 shows the testing latent loglikelihood at convergence for m chosen through cross-validation (the Supplement contains a more complete table). In bold, we show the algorithm that obtained the highest testing log-likelihood. The bound is the best performer overall and finds better solutions in less time. Figure 2 depicts the convergence on ion, hepatitis and SRBCT data sets. Data-set Algorithm BFGS SD CG Newton Bound ion m=3 -5.88 -5.56 -5.57 -5.95 -4.18 bupa hepatitis wine SRBCT m=2 m=2 m=3 m=4 -21.78 -5.28 -1.79 -6.06 -21.74 -5.14 -1.37 -5.61 -21.81 -4.84 -0.95 -5.76 -21.85 -5.50 -0.71 -5.54 -19.95 -4.40 -0.48 -0.11 Table 2: Test log-likelihood at convergence for ion, bupa, hepatitis, wine and SRBCT data-sets. ion hepatitis 0 SRBCT ?4 0 ?5 ?2 ?5 ?10 ?15 Bound Newton BFGS Conjugate gradient Steepest descent ?20 ?25 ?5 0 5 log(Time) [sec] 10 ?4 ?log(J(?)) ?log(J(?)) ?log(J(?)) ?6 ?7 ?8 ?8 ?9 ?10 ?10 ?11 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 log(Time) [sec] 2 4 ?12 ?4 ?2 0 log(Time) [sec] 2 4 Figure 2: Convergence of test latent log-likelihood on ion, hepatitis and SRBCT data-sets. 8 Discussion A simple quadratic upper bound for the partition function of log-linear models was proposed and makes majorization approaches competitive with state-of-the-art first- and second-order optimization methods. The bound is efficiently recoverable for graphical models and admits low-rank variants for high-dimensional data. It allows faster and monotonically convergent majorization in CRF learning and maximum latent conditional likelihood problems (where it also finds better local maxima). Future work will explore intractable partition functions where likelihood evaluation is hard but bound maximization may remain feasible. Furthermore, the majorization approach will be applied in stochastic [31] and distributed optimization settings. Acknowledgments The authors thank A. Smola, M. Collins, D. Kanevsky and the referees for valuable feedback. References [1] J. Lafferty, A. McCallum, and F. Pereira. Conditional random fields: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data. In ICML, 2001. [2] A. Globerson, T. Koo, X. Carreras, and M. Collins. Exponentiated gradient algorithms for log-linear structured prediction. In ICML, 2007. [3] J. Darroch and D. Ratcliff. 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JMLR, 12:75?110, 2011. 9 Majorization for CRFs and Latent Likelihoods (Supplementary Material) Tony Jebara Department of Computer Science Columbia University [email protected] Anna Choromanska Department of Electrical Engineering Columbia University [email protected] Abstract This supplement presents additional details in support of the full article. These include the application of the majorization method to maximum entropy problems. It also contains proofs of the various theorems, in particular, a guarantee that the bound majorizes the partition function. In addition, a proof is provided guaranteeing convergence on (non-latent) maximum conditional likelihood problems. The supplement also contains supporting lemmas that show the bound remains applicable in constrained optimization problems. The supplement then proves the soundness of the junction tree implementation of the bound for graphical models with large n. It also proves the soundness of the low-rank implementation of the bound for problems with large d. Finally, the supplement contains additional experiments and figures to provide further empirical support for the majorization methodology. Supplement for Section 2 Proof of Theorem 1 Rewrite the partition function as a sum over the integer index j = 1, . . . , n under the random ordering ? : ? 7? {1, . . . , n}. This defines j? = ?(y) and associates h and f with n hj = h(? ?1 (j)) and fj = f (? ?1 (j)). Next, write Z(?) = j=1 ?j exp(?? fj ) by introducing ? = ? ? ?? and ?j = hj exp(??? fj ). Define the partition function over only the first i components ?i as Zi (?) = j=1 ?j exp(?? fj ). When i = 0, a trivial quadratic upper bound holds ( ) Z0 (?) ? z0 exp 12 ?? ?0 ? + ?? ?0 with the parameters z0 ? 0+ , ?0 = 0, and ?0 = z0 I. Next, add one term to the current partition function Z1 (?) = Z0 (?) + ?1 exp(?? f1 ). Apply the current bound Z0 (?) to obtain Z1 (?) ? z0 exp( 21 ?? ?0 ? + ?? ?0 ) + ?1 exp(?? f1 ). Consider the following change of variables u ? 1/2 ?1/2 = ?0 ? ? ?0 = ?1 z0 exp( 12 (f1 (f1 ? ?0 )) ? ?0 )? ??1 0 (f1 ? ?0 )) and rewrite the logarithm of the bound as log Z1 (?) ( ) ? 2 1 ? log z0 ? 12 (f1 ? ?0 )? ??1 0 (f1 ? ?0 ) + ? f1 + log exp( 2 ?u? ) + ? . Apply Lemma 1 (cf. [32] p. 100) to the last term to get ( (1 ) ) ? 2 log Z1 (?) ? log z0 ? 12 (f1 ? ?0 )? ??1 0 (f1 ? ?0 ) + ? f1 + log exp 2 ?v? +? ( ) v? (u ? v) 1 + + (u ? v)? I + ?vv? (u ? v) 1+? exp(? 12 ?v?2 ) 2 10 where ? = 1 1 tanh( 2 log(? exp(? 2 ?v?2 ))) . 1 2 log(? exp(? 2 ?v?2 )) The bound in [32] is tight when u = v. To achieve tightness ?1/2 when ? = ?? or, equivalently, ? = 0, we choose v = ?0 (?0 ? f1 ) yielding ( ) Z1 (?) ? z1 exp 12 ?? ?1 ? + ?? ?1 where we have z1 = z0 + ?1 z0 ?1 = ?0 + f1 z0 + ?1 z0 + ?1 tanh( 21 log(?1 /z0 )) = ?0 + (?0 ? f1 )(?0 ? f1 )? . 2 log(?1 /z0 ) ?1 ?1 This rule updates the bound parameters z0 , ?0 , ?0 to incorporate an extra term in the sum over i in Z(?). The process is iterated n times (replacing 1 with i and 0 with i ? 1) to produce an overall bound on all terms. Lemma 1 (See [32] p. 100) ( ( ) ) For all u ? Rd , any v ? Rd and any ? ? 0, the bound log exp 12 ?u?2 + ? ? ( ( ) ) log exp 12 ?v?2 + ? + ( ) v? (u ? v) 1 ? ? + (u ? v) I + ?vv (u ? v) 1 1 + ? exp(? 2 ?v?2 ) 2 holds when the scalar term ? = tanh( 21 log(? exp(??v?2 /2))) . 2 log(? exp(??v?2 /2)) Equality is achieved when u = v. Proof of Lemma 1 The proof is provided in [32]. Supplement for Section 3 Maximum entropy problem We show here that partition functions arise naturally in maximum ? p(y) entropy estimation or minimum relative entropy RE(p?h) = y p(y) log h(y) estimation. Consider the following problem: ? ? min RE(p?h) s.t. p(y)f (y) = 0, p(y)g(y) ? 0. p y y d? Here, assume that f : ? 7? R and g : ? 7? R are arbitrary (non-constant) vector-valued ( ) functions over the sample space. The solution distribution p(y) = h(y) exp ? ? f (y) + ?? g(y) /Z(?, ?) is recovered by the dual optimization ? ( ) arg ?, ? = max ? log h(y) exp ? ? f (y) + ?? g(y) d ??0,? y ? where ? ? Rd and ? ? Rd . These are obtained by minimizing Z(?, ?) or equivalently by maximizing its negative logarithm. Algorithm 1 permits variational maximization of the dual via the quadratic program min 1 (? ??0,? 2 ? ? ?(? ? ?) ? + ?? ? ? ?) ? where ? ? = [? ? ?? ]. Note that any general convex hull of constraints ? ? ? ? Rd+d could be imposed without loss of generality. Proof of Theorem 2 We begin by proving a lemma that will be useful later. Lemma 2 If ?? ? ? ? 0 for ?, ? ? Rd?d , then ? ? ?(? ? ?) ? ? (? ? ?) ? ?? L(?) = ? 21 (? ? ?) ? ? ?(? ? ?) ? ? (? ? ?) ? ?? U (?) = ? 1 (? ? ?) 2 satisfy sup??? L(?) ? 1 ? sup??? U (?) for any convex ? ? Rd , ?? ? ?, ? ? Rd and ? ? R+ . 11 Proof of Lemma 2 Define the primal problems of interest as PL = sup??? L(?) and PU = sup??? U (?). The constraints ? ? ? can be summarized by a set of linear inequalities A? ? b where A ? Rk?d and b ? Rk for some (possibly infinite) k ? Z. Apply the change of variables ? The constraint A(z+ ?) ? ? b simplifies into Az ? b ? where b ? = b?A?. ? Since ?? ? ?, it z = ?? ?. 1 ? ? is easy to show that b ? 0. We obtain the equivalent primal problems PL = sup ? ? z ?z ? Az?b z? ? and PU = supAz?b? ? 12 z? ?z ? z? ?. The corresponding dual problems are 2 ? ?1 y?A??1A?y ? ? ? ? +y?A??1?+y?b+ y?0 2 2 ? ?1 y?A??1 A?y ? ? ? ? DU = inf +y?A??1?+y?b+ . y?0 2 2 DL = inf ? > 0 as Due to strong duality, PL = DL and PU = DU . Apply the inequalities ? ? ?? and y? b ? ?1 y?A??1 A?y y?A??1 ? ? ?+?? ? + + y?b PL ? sup ? z? ?z ? z? ? = inf y?0 2 2? ? 2? ? Az?b 1 1 ? DU = PU . ? ? This proves that PL ? ?1 PU . We will use the above to prove Theorem 2. First, we will upper-bound (in the Loewner ordering sense) the matrices ?j in Algorithm 2. Since ?fxj (y)?2 ? r for all y ? ?j and since ?j in Algorithm 1 is a convex combination of fxj (y), the outer-product terms in the update for ?j satisfy (fxj (y) ? ?)(fxj (y) ? ?)? ? 4r2 I. Thus, ?j ? F(?1 , . . . , ?n )4r2 I holds where ? 1 F(?1 , . . . , ?n ) = n tanh( log( ?i?1i )) ? 2 ?k k=1 ?i ) 2 log( ?i?1 ? i=2 k k=1 using the definition of ?1 , . . . , ?n in the proof of Theorem 1. The formula for F starts at i = 2 since z0 ? 0+ . Assume permutation ? is sampled uniformly at random. The expected value of F is then ? ?(i) 1 n )) 1 ? ? tanh( 2 log( ?i?1 k=1 ??(k) . E? [F(?1 , . . . , ?n )] = ??(i) n! ? i=2 ) 2 log( ?i?1 k=1 ??(k) We claim that the expectation is maximized when all ?i = 1 or any positive constant. Also, F is invariant under uniform scaling of its arguments. Write the expected value of F as E for short. ?E ?E ?E Next, consider ?? at the setting ?i = 1, ?i. Due to the expectation over ?, we have ?? = ?? o l l for any l, o. Therefore, the gradient vector is constant when all ?i = 1. Since F(?1 , . . . , ?n ) is invariant to scaling, the gradient vector must therefore be the all zeros vector. Thus, the point ? ?E when all ?i = 1 is an extremum or a saddle. Next, consider ?? for any l, o. At the setting o ??l 2 ? ?E ?i = 1, ???E2 = ?c(n) and, ?? = c(n)/(n ? 1) for some non-negative constant function o ??l l c(n). Thus, the ?i = 1 extremum is locally concave and is a maximum. This establishes that E? [F(?1 , . . . , ?n )] ? E? [F(1, . . . , 1)] and yields the Loewner bound ) ( n?1 ? tanh(log(i)/2) 2 I = ?I. ?j ? 2r log(i) i=1 Apply this bound to each ?j in the lower bound on J(?) and also note a corresponding upper bound ? ? t?+t? ?? ? ?? ? 2? (? ? ?) ? ?(?j ?fx (yj )) J(?) ? J(?)? j 2 j ? ? t? ?? ? ?? ? 2? (? ? ?) ? ?(?j ?fx (yj )) J(?) ? J(?)? j 2 j 12 which follows from Jensen?s inequality. Define the current ?? at time ? as ?? and denote by L? (?) the above lower bound and by U? (?) the above upper bound at time ? . Clearly, L? (?) ? J(?) ? U? (?) with equality when ? = ?? . Algorithm 2 maximizes J(?) after initializing at ?0 and performing an update by maximizing a lower bound based on ?j . Since L? (?) replaces the definition of ?j with ?I ? ?j , L? (?) is a looser bound than the one used by Algorithm 2. Thus, performing ?? +1 = arg max??? L? (?) makes less progress than a step of Algorithm 1. Consider computing the slower update at each iteration ? and returning ?? +1 = arg max??? L? (?). Setting ? = (t? +t?)I, ? = t?I and ? = ?+? ? allows us to apply Lemma 2 as follows sup L? (?) ? L? (?? ) = ??? 1 sup U? (?) ? U? (?? ). ? ??? Since L? (?? ) = J(?? ) = U? (?? ), J(?? +1 ) ? sup??? L? (?) and sup??? U? (?) ? J(? ? ), we obtain ( ) 1 J(?? +1 ) ? J(? ? ) ? 1? (J(?? ) ? J(? ? )) . ? Iterate the above inequality starting at t = 0 to obtain ( )? 1 ? J(?? ) ? J(? ) ? 1? (J(?0 ) ? J(? ? )) . ? ( )? ? A solution within a multiplicative factor of ? implies that ? = 1 ? ?1 or log(1/?) = ? log ??1 . ? ? log(1/?) or Inserting the definition for ? shows that the number of iterations ? is at most log ? ??1 ? ? log(1/?) log(1+?/?) . Inserting the definition for ? gives the bound. Y12,0 Y11,1 Y21,1 Y31,1 ??? Ym1,1 1,1 Figure 3: Junction tree of depth 2. Algorithm 5 SmallJunctionTree Input Parameters ?? and h(u), f (u) ?u ? Y12,0 and zi , ?i , ?i ?i = 1, . . . , m1,1 Initialize z ? 0+ , ? = 0, ? = zI For each configuration u ? Y12,0 { ?m1,1 ?m1,1 ?m1,1 ?? ?? ?? ? = h(u)( ? i=1 zi exp(?? ?i )) exp(? (f (u) + i=1 ?i )) = h(u) exp(? f (u)) i=1 zi m1,1 l = f (u) + i=1 ?i ? ? ?m1,1 tanh( 21 log(?/z)) ? ? + = i=1 ?i + ll 2 log(?/z) ? ? + = z+? l z += ? } Output z, ?, ? Supplement for Section 5 Proof of correctness for Algorithm 3 Consider a simple junction tree of depth 2 shown on Figure 3. The notation Yca,b refers to the cth tree node located at tree level a (first level is considered as the one with? tree leaves) whose parent is the bth from the higher tree level (the root has no parent ? so b = 0). Let Y a1 ,b1 refer to the sum over all configurations of variables in Yca11 ,b1 and Y a1 ,b1 \Y a2 ,b2 c1 c1 c2 refers to the sum over all configurations of variables that are in Yca11 ,b1 but not in Yca22 ,b2 . Let ma,b denote the number of children of the bth node located at tree level a + 1. For short-hand, use ?(Y ) = h(Y ) exp(? ? f (Y )). The partition function can be expressed as: 13 Y13,0 Y12,1 ??? Y11,1 Y21,1 ??? Y22,1 1,1 Ym 1,1 ??? Y11,2 Y21,2 1,2 Ym 1,2 2,1 Ym 2,1 1,m2,1 Y1 ??? 1,m2,1 Y2 1,m Ym1,m2,1 2,1 Figure 4: Junction tree of depth 3. Z(?) = ? u?Y12,0 ? ? u?Y12,0 = ? ? ??(u) ? m1,1 i=1 [ ? m1,1 ?(u) i=1 [ ? ? ?? ? ?(v)?? v?Yi1,1 \Y12,0 ) 1( ? ? ?i (? ? ?) ? + (? ? ?) ? ? ?i zi exp( ? ? ?) 2 ? ( m1,1 ? h(u) exp(? f (u)) u?Y12,0 zi exp i=1 ] 1 ? ? ?i (? ? ?) ? + (? ? ?) ? ? ?i (? ? ?) 2 )] ? where the upper-bound is obtained by applying Theorem 1 to each of the terms v?Y 1,1 \Y 2,0 ?(v). 1 i By simply rearranging terms we get: ) ( ( [ (m1,1 )) m1,1 ? ? ? zi exp(???? ?i ) exp ? ? f (u) + ?i h(u) Z(?) ? u?Y12,0 i=1 ( exp 1 ?? (? ? ?) 2 (m1,1 ? ) ?i i=1 ? (? ? ?) )] . i=1 One ( can prove that this ) expression can be upper-bounded by 1 ? ? ? ? ? z exp 2 (? ? ?) ?(? ? ?) + (? ? ?) ? where z, ? and ? can be computed using Algorithm 5 (a simplification of Algorithm 3). We will call this result Lemma A. The proof is similar to the proof of Theorem 1 so is not repeated here. Consider enlarging the tree to a depth 3 as shown on Figure 4. The partition function is now ? ? ? ???? ? m2,1 m1,i ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ???? ? Z(?) = ?(w)???? . ??(u) ? ??(v) ? u?Y13,0 i=1 v?Yi2,1 \Y13,0 j=1 w?Yj1,i \Yi2,1 ( )) ?m1,i (? ? 1,i 2,1 ?(w) term By Lemma A we can upper bound each v?Y 2,1 \Y 3,0 ?(v) j=1 w?Y \Y 1 i j i ( ) ? ? ?i (? ? ?) ? + (? ? ?) ? ? ?i . This yields by the expression zi exp 12 (? ? ?) [ )] ( m2,1 ? ? 1 ? ? ?i (? ? ?) ? + (? ? ?) ? ? ?i Z(?) ? ?(u) (? ? ?) . zi exp 2 3,0 i=1 u?Y1 2,1 This process can be viewed as collapsing the sub-trees S12,1 , S22,1 , . . ., Sm to super-nodes that 2,1 are represented by bound parameters, zi , ?i and ?i , i = {1, 2, ? ? ? , m2,1 }, where the sub-trees are 14 defined as: S12,1 = {Y12,1 , Y11,1 , Y21,1 , Y31,1 , . . . , Ym1,1 } 1,1 S22,1 = {Y22,1 , Y11,2 , Y21,2 , Y31,2 , . . . , Ym1,2 } 1,2 = {Ym2,1 , Y1 2,1 .. . 2,1 Sm 2,1 1,m2,1 1,m2,1 , Y2 1,m2,1 , Y3 2,1 , . . . , Ym1,m }. 1,m2,1 Notice that the obtained expression can ( be further upper bounded using again ) Lemma A (induction) 1 ? ? ? ? ? yielding a bound of the form: z exp 2 (? ? ?) ?(? ? ?) + (? ? ?) ? . Finally, for a general tree, follow the same steps described above, starting from leaves and collapsing nodes to super-nodes, each represented by bound parameters. This procedure effectively yields Algorithm 3 for the junction tree under consideration. Supplement for Section 6 Proof of correctness for Algorithm 4 We begin by proving a lemma that will be useful later. Lemma 3 For all x ? Rd and for all l ? Rd , ?2 ? d d 2 ? ? l(i) ? . x(i)2 l(i)2 ? ? x(i) ?? d 2 l(j) i=1 i=1 j=1 Proof of Lemma 3 By Jensen?s inequality, ?2 ? ( d )2 d d 2 ? x(i)l(i)2 ? ? x(i)l(i) ? . ?? x(i)2 ?d ?? x(i)2 l(i)2 ? ? ? ?d 2 2 d l(j) l(j) l(j)2 j=1 j=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 d ? l(i)2 j=1 Now we prove the correctness of Algorithm 4. At the ith iteration, the algorithm stores ?i using a low-rank representation Vi? Si Vi + Di where Vi ? Rk?d is orthonormal, Si ? Rk?k positive semi-definite and Di ? Rd?d is non-negative diagonal. The diagonal terms D are initialized to t?I where ? is the regularization term. To mimic Algorithm 1 we must increment the ? matrix by a rank one update of the form ?i = ?i?1 + ri r? i . By projecting ri onto each eigenvector in V, we ?k ? Vi?1 ri + g where g is the can decompose it as ri = j=1 Vi?1 (j, ?)ri Vi?1 (j, ?)? + g = Vi?1 remaining residue. Thus the update rule can be rewritten as: ?i ? ? ? ? = ?i?1 + ri r? i = Vi?1 Si?1 Vi?1 + Di?1 + (Vi?1 Vi?1 ri + g)(Vi?1 Vi?1 ri + g) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? = Vi?1 (Si?1 + Vi?1 ri r? i Vi?1 )Vi?1 + Di?1 + gg = Vi?1 Si?1 Vi?1 + gg + Di?1 ? where we define Vi?1 = Qi?1 Vi?1 and defined Qi?1 in terms of the singular value decomposition, ? ? ? ? Q? i?1 Si?1 Qi?1 = svd(Si?1 + Vi?1 ri ri Vi?1 ). Note that Si?1 is diagonal and nonnegative by construction. The current formula for ?i shows that we have a rank (k + 1) system (plus diagonal term) which needs to be converted back to a rank k system (plus diagonal term) which we denote by ? ?i . We have two options as follows. Case 1) Remove g from ?i to obtain ? ? ? ? ? ?i = Vi?1 Si?1 Vi?1 + Di?1 = ?i ? gg? = ?i ? cvv? 1 where c = ?g?2 and v = ?g? g. th Case 2) Remove the m (smallest) eigenvalue in S?i?1 and its corresponding eigenvector: ? ?i ? ? ? ? ? ? ? = Vi?1 Si?1 Vi?1 + Di?1 + gg? ? S (m, m)V (m, ?)? V (m, ?) = ?i ? cvv? ? ? where c = S (m, m) and v = V(m, ?) . 15 ? Clearly, both cases can be written as an update of the form ?i = ?i + cvv? where c ? 0 and v? v = 1. We choose the case with smaller c value to minimize the change as we drop from a system of order (k + 1) to order k. Discarding the smallest singular value and its corresponding eigenvector would violate the bound. Instead, consider absorbing this term into the diagonal component to ?? ? preserve the bound. Formally, we look for a diagonal matrix F such that ?i = ?i + F which also ?? maintains x? ?i x ? x? ?i x for all x ? Rd . Thus, we want to satisfy: ( d )2 d ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? x ?i x ? x ?i x ?? x cvv x ? x Fx ?? c x(i)v(i) ? x(i)2 F(i) i=1 i=1 where, for ease of notation, we take F(i) = F(i, i). ? where w = v? 1. Consider the case where v ? 0 though we will soon get rid of (? )2 ?d d this assumption. We need an F such that i=1 x(i)2 F(i) ? c i=1 x(i)v(i) . Equivalently, we (? ) ?d ? 2 ? d need i=1 x(i)2 F(i) ? x(i)v(i) . Define F(i) = F(i) 2 i=1 cw cw2 for all i = 1, . . . , d. So, we need (? )2 ?d ? ? ? d an F such that i=1 x(i)2 F(i) ? . Using Lemma 3 it is easy to show that we i=1 x(i)v(i) Define v = 1 wv ? ? ? may choose F (i) = v(i) . Thus, we obtain F(i) = cw2 F(i) = cwv(i). Therefore, for all x ? Rd , ?d all v ? 0, and for F(i) = cv(i) j=1 v(j) we have d ? ( x(i) F(i) ? c 2 i=1 d ? )2 x(i)v(i) . (3) i=1 To generalize the inequality to hold for all vectors v ? Rd with potentially negative entries, it is ?d sufficient to set F(i) = c|v(i)| j=1 |v(j)|. To verify this, consider flipping the sign of any v(i). The left side of the Inequality 3 does not change. For the right side of this inequality, flipping the sign of v(i) is equivalent to flipping the sign of x(i) and not changing the sign of v(i). However, in this case the inequality holds as shown before (it holds for any x ? Rd ). Thus for all x, v ? Rd and ?d for F(i) = c|v(i)| j=1 |v(j)|, Inequality 3 holds. Supplement for Section 7 Small scale experiments In additional small-scale experiments, we compared Algorithm 2 with steepest descent (SD), conjugate gradient (CG), BFGS and Newton-Raphson. Small-scale problems may be interesting in real-time learning settings, for example, when a website has to learn from a user?s uploaded labeled data in a split second to perform real-time retrieval. We considered logistic regression on five UCI data sets where missing values were handled via mean-imputation. A range of regularization settings ? ? {100 , 102 , 104 } was explored and all algorithms were initialized from the same ten random start-points. Table 3 shows the average number of seconds each algorithm needed to achieve the same solution that BFGS converged to (all algorithms achieve the same solution due to concavity). The bound is the fastest algorithm as indicated in bold. data|? BFGS SD CG Newton Bound a|100 1.90 1.74 0.78 0.31 0.01 a|102 0.89 0.92 0.83 0.25 0.01 a|104 2.45 1.60 0.85 0.22 0.01 b|100 3.14 2.18 0.70 0.43 0.07 b|102 2.00 6.17 0.67 0.37 0.04 b|104 1.60 5.83 0.83 0.35 0.04 c|100 4.09 1.92 0.65 0.39 0.07 c|102 1.03 0.64 0.64 0.34 0.02 c|104 1.90 0.56 0.72 0.32 0.02 d|100 5.62 12.04 1.36 0.92 0.16 d|102 2.88 1.27 1.21 0.63 0.09 d|104 3.28 1.94 1.23 0.60 0.07 e|100 2.63 2.68 0.48 0.35 0.03 e|102 2.01 2.49 0.55 0.26 0.03 e|104 1.49 1.54 0.43 0.20 0.03 Table 3: Convergence time in seconds under various regularization levels for a) Bupa (t = 345, dim = 7), b) Wine (t = 178, dim = 14), c) Heart (t = 187, dim = 23), d) Ion (t = 351, dim = 34), and e) Hepatitis (t = 155, dim = 20) data sets. Influence of rank k on bound performance in large scale experiments We also examined the influence of k on bound performance and compared it with LBFGS, SD and CG. Several choices 16 of k were explored. Table 4 shows results for the SRBCT data-set. In general, the bound performs best but slows down for superfluously large values of k. Steepest descent and conjugate gradient are slow yet obviously do not vary with k. Note that each iteration takes less time with smaller k for the bound. However, we are reporting overall runtime which is also a function of the number of iterations. Therefore, total runtime (a function of both) may not always decrease/increase with k. k LBFGS SD CG Bound 1 1.37 8.80 4.39 0.56 2 1.32 8.80 4.39 0.56 4 1.39 8.80 4.39 0.67 8 1.35 8.80 4.39 0.96 16 1.46 8.80 4.39 1.34 32 1.40 8.80 4.39 2.11 64 1.54 8.80 4.39 4.57 Table 4: Convergence time in seconds as a function of k. Additional latent-likelihood results For completeness, Figure 5 depicts two additional data-sets to complement Figure 2. Similarly, Table 5 shows all experimental settings explored in order to provide the summary Table 2 in the main article. bupa wine ?19 0 ?5 ?log(J(?)) ?log(J(?)) ?20 ?21 ?22 Bound Newton BFGS Conjugate gradient Steepest descent ?15 ?23 ?24 ?5 ?10 0 5 log(Time) [sec] 10 ?20 ?4 ?2 0 2 4 log(Time) [sec] 6 8 Figure 5: Convergence of test latent log-likelihood for bupa and wine data-sets. Data-set Algorithm BFGS SD CG Newton Bound ion m=1 m=2m=3m=4 -4.96 -5.55 -5.88 -5.79 -11.80 -9.92 -5.56 -8.59 -5.47 -5.81 -5.57 -5.22 -5.95 -5.95 -5.95 -5.95 -6.08 -4.84 -4.18 -5.17 Data-set Algorithm BFGS SD CG Newton Bound bupa m=1 m=2 m=3 m=4 -22.07 -21.78 -21.92 -21.87 -21.76 -21.74 -21.73 -21.83 -21.81 -21.81 -21.81 -21.81 -21.85 -21.85 -21.85 -21.85 -21.85 -19.95 -20.01 -19.97 wine m=1m=2m=3m=4 -0.90 -0.91 -1.79 -1.35 -1.61 -1.60 -1.37 -1.63 -0.51 -0.78 -0.95 -0.51 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 -0.51 -0.51 -0.48 -0.51 hepatitis m=1m=2m=3m=4 -4.42 -5.28 -4.95 -4.93 -4.93 -5.14 -5.01 -5.20 -4.84 -4.84 -4.84 -4.84 -5.50 -5.50 -5.50 -4.50 -5.47 -4.40 -4.75 -4.92 SRBCT m=1m=2m=3m=4 -5.99 -6.17 -6.09 -6.06 -5.61 -5.62 -5.62 -5.61 -5.62 -5.49 -5.36 -5.76 -5.54 -5.54 -5.54 -5.54 -5.31 -5.31 -4.90 -0.11 Table 5: Test latent log-likelihood at convergence for different values of m ? {1, 2, 3, 4} on ion, bupa, hepatitis, wine and SRBCT data-sets. 17
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Probabilistic Event Cascades for Alzheimer?s disease Daniel Alexander University College London [email protected] Jonathan Huang Stanford University [email protected] Abstract Accurate and detailed models of neurodegenerative disease progression are crucially important for reliable early diagnosis and the determination of effective treatments. We introduce the ALPACA (Alzheimer?s disease Probabilistic Cascades) model, a generative model linking latent Alzheimer?s progression dynamics to observable biomarker data. In contrast with previous works which model disease progression as a fixed event ordering, we explicitly model the variability over such orderings among patients which is more realistic, particularly for highly detailed progression models. We describe efficient learning algorithms for ALPACA and discuss promising experimental results on a real cohort of Alzheimer?s patients from the Alzheimer?s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. 1 Introduction Models of disease progression are among the core tools of modern medicine for early disease diagnosis, treatment determination and for explaining symptoms to patients. In neurological diseases, for example, symptoms and pathologies tend to be similar in different diseases. The ordering and severity of those changes, however, provide discrimination amongst different diseases. Thus progression models are key to early differential diagnosis and thus to drug development (for finding the right participants in trials) and for eventual deployment of effective treatments. Despite their utility, traditional models of disease progression [3, 17] have largely been limited to coarse symptomatic staging which divides patients into a small number of groups by thresholding a crude clinical score of how far the disease has progressed. The models are thus only as precise as these crude clinical scores ? although providing insight into disease mechanisms, they provide little benefit for early diagnosis or accurate patient staging. With the growing availability of larger datasets consisting of measurements from clinical, imaging and pathological sources, however, more detailed characterizations of disease progression are now becoming feasible and a key hope in medical science is that such models will provide earlier, more accurate diagnosis, leading to more effective development and deployment of emerging treatments. The recent availability of cross sectional datasets such as the Alzheimer?s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data has generated intense speculation in the neurology community about the nature of the cascade of events in AD and the ordering in which biomarkers show abnormality. Several hypothetical models [12, 5, 1] broadly agree, but differ in some ways. Despite early attempts on limited data sets [13], a data driven confirmation of those models remains a pressing need. Beckett [2] was the first, nearly two decades ago, to propose a data driven model of disease progression using a distribution over orderings of clinical events. This earlier work of [2] considered the progressive loss of physical abilities in ageing persons such as the ability to do heavy work around the house, or to climb up stairs. More recently, Fonteijn et al. [8] developed event-based models of disease progression by analyzing ordered series of much finer grained clinical and atrophy events with applications to the study of familial Alzheimer?s disease and Huntington?s disease, both of which are well-studied autosomal-dominantly inherited neurodegenerative diseases. Examples of events in the model of [8] include (but are not limited to) clinical events (such as a transition from Presymptomatic Alzheimer?s to Mild Cognitive Impairment) and the onset of atrophy (reduction of tissue volume). By assuming a single universal ordering of events within the disease progression, the method of [8] is able to scale to much larger collections of events, thus achieving much more detailed characterizations of disease progression compared to that of [2]. 1 The assumption made in [8] of a universal ordering common to all patients within a disease cohort, is a major oversimplification of reality, however, where the event ordering can vary considerably among patients even if it is consistent enough to distinguish different diseases. In practice, the assumption of a universal ordering within the model means we cannot recover the diversity of orderings over population groups and can make fitting the model to patient data unstable. To address the universal ordering problem, our work revisits the original philosophy of [2] by explicitly modeling a distribution over permutations. By carefully considering computational complexity and exploiting modern machine learning techniques, however, we are able to overcome many of its original limitations. For example, where [2] did not model measurement noise, our method can handle a wide range of measurement models. Additionally, like [8], our method can achieve the scalability that is required to produced fine-grained disease progression models. The following is a summary of our main contributions. ? We propose the Alzheimer?s disease Probabilistic Cascades (ALPACA) model, a probabilistic model of disease cascades, allowing for patients to have distinct event orderings. ? We develop efficient probabilistic inference and learning algorithms for ALPACA, including a novel patient ?staging? method, which predicts a patient?s full trajectory through clinical and atrophy events from sparse and noisy measurement data. ? We provide empirical validation of our algorithms on synthetic data in a variety of settings as well as promising preliminary results for a real cohort of Alzheimer?s patients. 2 Preliminaries: Snapshots of neurodegenerative disease cascades We model a neurodegenerative disease cascade as an ordering of a discrete set of N events, {e1 , . . . , eN }. These events represent changes in patient state, such as a sufficiently low score on a memory test for a clinical diagnosis of AD, or the first measurement of tissue pathology, such as significant atrophy in the hippocampus (memory related brain area). An ordering over events is represented as a permutation ? which corresponds events to the positions within the ordering at which they occur. We write ? as ?(1)|?(2)| . . . |?(N ), where ?(j) = ei means that ?Event i occurs in position j with respect to ??. In practice, the ordering ? for a particular patient can only be observed indirectly via snapshots which probe at a particular point in time whether each event has occurred or not. We denote a snapshot by a vector of N measurements z = (ze1 , . . . , zen ), where each zei is a real valued measurement reflecting a noisy diagnosis as to whether event i of the disease progression has occurred prior to measuring z.1 Were it not for noise within the measurement process, a single snapshot z would partition the event set into two disjoint subsets: events that have occurred already (e.g., {e?(1) , . . . , e?(r) }), and events which have yet to occur (e.g., {e?(r+1) , . . . , e?(N ) }). Where prior models [8] considered data in which a patient is only associated with a single snapshot (taken at a single time point), we allow for multiple snapshots of a patient to be taken spaced throughout that patient?s disease cascade. In this more general case of k snapshots, the event set is partitioned into k + 1 disjoint subsets (in the absence of noise). For example, if ? = e3 |e1 |e4 |e5 |e6 |e2 , then k = 2 snapshots might partition the event ordering into sets X1 = {e1 , e3 }, X2 = {e4 , e5 }, X3 = {e2 , e6 }, reflecting that events in X1 occur before events in X2 , which occur before events in X3 . Such partitions can also be thought of as partial rankings over the events (and indeed, we will exploit recent methods for learning with partial rankings in our own approach, [11]). To denote partial rankings, we again use vertical bars, separating the events that occur between snapshots. In the above example, we would write e1 , e3 |e4 , e5 |e2 , e6 . This connection between snapshots and partial rankings plays a key role in our inference algorithms in Section 4.1. Instead of reasoning with continuous snapshot times, we use the fact that many distinct snapshot times can result in the same partial ranking, to reason instead with discrete snapshot sets. By snapshot set, we refer to the collection of positions in the full event ordering just before each snapshot is taken. In our running example, the snapshot set is ? = {2, 4}. Given a full ordering ?, the partial ranking which arises from snapshot data (assuming no noise) is fully determined by ? . We denote this resulting partial ranking by ?|? . Thus in our running example, ?|? ={2,4} = e1 , e3 |e4 , e5 |e2 , e6 . 3 ALPACA: the Alzheimer?s disease Probabilistic Cascades model We now present ALPACA, a generative model of noisy snapshots in which the event ordering for each patient is a latent variable. ALPACA makes two main assumptions: (1), that the measured outcomes for each patient are independent of each other and (2), conditioned on the event ordering of each 1 For notational simplicity, we assume that measurements corresponding to each event are scalar valued. However, our model extends trivially to more complicated measurements. 2 patient and the time at which a snapshot is taken, the measurements for each event are independent. In contrast with [8], we do not assume that multiple snapshot vectors for the same patient are independent of each other. The simplest form of ALPACA is as follows. For each patient j = 1, . . . , M : 1. Draw an ordering of the events ? (j) from a Mallows distribution P (?; ?0 , ?) over orderings. 2. Draw a snapshot set ? (j) from a uniform distribution P (? ) over subsets of the event set. (j) (j) (j) 3. For each element of the snapshot set, ?i = ?1 , . . . , ?K (j) and for each event e = e1 , . . . , eN : (j) (a) If ? ?1 (e) ? ?i (j) (j) (i.e., if event e has occurred prior to time ?i ), draw zi,e ? (j) N (?occurred , coccurred ). Otherwise draw zi,e ? N (?healthy , chealthy ). e e e e (j) In the above basic model, each entry of a snapshot vector, zi,e , is generated by sampling from a univariate measurement model (assumed in this case to be Gaussian). If event e has already occurred, (j) (j) , coccurred ) ? otherwise zi,e is the observation zi,e is sampled from the distribution N (?occurred e e sampled from a measurement distribution estimated from a control population of healthy individuals, N (?healthy , chealthy ). For notational simplicity, we denote the collection of snapshots for patient e e (j) (j) j by z?,? = {zi,e }i=1,...,K (j) ,e=1,...,N . We remark that the success of our approach does not hinge on the assumption of normality and our algorithms can deal with a variety of measurement models. For example, certain clinical events (such as the loss of the ability to pass a memory test) are more naturally modeled as discrete observations and can trivially be incorporated into the current model. The prior distribution over possible event orderings is assumed to take the form of the well known Mallows distribution, which has been used in a number of other application areas such as NLP, social choice, and psychometrics ([6, 15, 18]), and has the following probability mass function over orderings: P (? = ?; ?0 , ?) ? exp (??dK (?, ?0 )), where dK (?, ?) is the Kendall?s tau distance metric on orderings. The Kendall?s tau distance penalizes the number of inversions, or pairs of events for which ? and ?0 disagree over relative ordering. Mallows models are analogous to normal distributions in that ?0 can be interpreted as the mean or central ordering and ? as a measure of the ?spread? of the distribution. Both parameters are viewed as fixed quantities to be estimated via the empirical Bayesian approach outlined in Section 4. The choices of the Mallows model for orderings and the uniform distribution for snapshot sets are particularly convenient for clinical settings in which the number of subjects may be limited, since the small number of parameters of the model (which scales linearly in N ) sufficiently constrains learning, and eases our discussion of inference and learning in Section 4. However, as we discuss in Section 5, the parametric assumptions made in the most basic form of ALPACA can be considerably relaxed without impacting the computational complexity of learning. Our algorithms are thus applicable for more general classes of distributions over orderings as well as snapshot sets. Application to patient staging. With respect to the event-based characterization of disease progression, a critical problem is that of patient staging, the problem of determining the extent to which a disease has progressed for a particular patient given corresponding measurement data. ALPACA offers a simple and natural formulation of the patient staging problem as a probabilistic inference query. In particular, given the measurements corresponding to a particular patient, we perform patient staging by: (1) computing a posterior distribution over the event ordering ? (j) , then (2) computing a posterior distribution over the most recent element of the snapshot set ? (j) . To visualize the posterior distribution over the event ordering ? (j) , we plot a simple ?first-order staging diagram?, displaying the probability that event e has occurred (or will occur) in position q according to the posterior. Two major features differentiate ALPACA from traditional patient staging approaches, in which patients are binned into a small number of imprecisely defined stages. In particular, our method is more fine-grained, allowing for a detailed picture of what the patient has undergone as well as a prediction of what is to come next. Moreover, ALPACA has well-defined probabilistic semantics, allowing for a rigorous probabilistic characterization of uncertainty. 4 Inference algorithms and parameter estimation In this section we describe tractable inference and parameter estimation procedures for ALPACA. 4.1 Inference. Given a collection of K (j) snapshots for a patient j, the critical inference problem that we must solve is that of computing a posterior distribution over the latent event order and snapshot set for that patient. Despite the fact that all latent variables are discrete, however, computing this 3 posterior distribution can be nontrivial due to the super-exponential size of the state space (which is  N O(N ! ? K (j) )), for which there exist no tractable exact inference algorithms. We thus turn to a Gibbs sampling approximation. Directly applying the Gibbs sampler to the model is difficult however. One reason is that it is not obvious how to tractably sample the event ordering ? conditioned on its Markov blanket, given that the corresponding likelihood function is not conjugate prior to the Mallows model. Instead, noting that the snapshots depend on (?, ? ) only through the partial ranking ? ? ?|? , our Gibbs sampler operates on an augmented model in which the partial ranking ? is first generated (deterministically) from ? and ? , and the snapshots are then generated conditioned on the partial ranking ?. See Fig. 1(a) for a Bayes net representation. This augmented model is equivalent to the original model, but has the advantage that it reduces the sampling step for the event ordering ? to a well understood problem (described below). Our sampler thus alternates between sampling ? and jointly sampling (?, ? ) from the following conditional distributions: ? (j) ? P (? | ? = ? (j) , ? = ? (j) ; ?0 , ?), (j) (? (j) , ? (j) ) ? P (?, ? | ? = ? (j) , z?,? ). (4.1) Observe that since the snapshot set ? is fully determined by the partial ranking ?, it is not necessary to condition on ? in Equation 4.1 (left). Similarly in Equation 4.1 (right), since ? is fully determined given both the event ordering ? and the snapshot set ? , one can sample ? first, and deterministically reconstruct ?. Therefore the Gibbs sampling updates are: ? (j) ? P (? | ? = ? (j) ; ?0 , ?), (j) ? (j) ? P (? | ? = ? (j) , z?,? ). (4.2) While the Gibbs sampling updates here effectively reduce the inference problem to smaller inference problems,the state spaces over ? and ? still remain intractably large (with cardinalities O(N !) and O( KN(j) ), respectively). In the remainder of this section, we show how to exploit even further structure within each of the conditional distributions over ? and ? for efficient inference. As a result, we are able to carry out Gibbs sampling operations efficiently and exactly. Sampling event orderings. To sample ? (j) from the conditional distribution in Equation 4.2, we must condition a Mallows prior on the partial ranking ? = ? (j) . This precise problem has in fact been discussed in a number of works [4, 14, 15, 9]. In our experiments, we use the method of Huang [9] which explicitly computes a representation of the posterior, from which one can efficiently (and exactly) draw independent samples. Sampling snapshot sets. We now turn to the problem of sampling a snapshot set ? (j) of size K (j) from Equation 4.2 (right). Note first that if K (j) is small (say,  less than 3), then one can exhaustively compute the posterior probability of each of the KN(j) K (j) -subsets and draw a sample from a tabular representation of the posterior. For larger K (j) , however, the exhaustive approach is intractable. In the following, we present a dynamic programming algorithm for sampling snapshot sets with running time much lower than the exhaustive setting (even for small K (j) ). Our core insight is to exploit conditional independence relations within the posterior distribution over snapshot sets. That such independence relations exist may not seem surprising due to the simplicity of the uniform prior over snapshot sets ? but on the other hand, note that the individual times of a snapshot set drawn from the uniform distribution over K (j) -subsets are not a priori independent of each other (they could not be, as the total number of times is observed and fixed to be K (j) ). As we show in the following, however, we can bijectively associate each snapshot set with a trajectory through a certain grid. With respect to this grid-based representation of snapshot sets, we then show that the posterior distribution can be viewed as that of a particular hidden Markov model (HMM). We will consider the set G = {(x, y) : 0 ? x ? K (j) and 0 ? y ? N ? K (j) }. G is a grid (depicted in Fig. 1(b)) which we will visualize with (K (j) , N ? K (j) ) in the upper left corner and (0, 0) in the lower right corner. Let PG denote the collection of staircase walks (paths which never go up or to the left) through the grid G starting and ending at the corners (K (j) , N ? K (j) ) and (0, 0), respectively. An example staircase walk is outlined in blue in Figure 1(b). It is not difficult to verify that every element in PG has length N (i.e., every staircase walk traverses exactly N edges in the grid). Given a grid G, we can now state a one-to-one correspondence between the staircase walks in PG with the K (j) -subsets of N . To establish the correspondence, we first associate each edge of the grid to the sum of the indices of the starting node of that edge. Hence the edge from (x1 , y1 ) to (x2 , y2 ) is associated with the number x1 + y1 . Given any staircase walk p = ((x0 , y0 ), (x1 , y1 ), ..., (xN , yN )) in PG , we associate p to the subset of events in {1, . . . , N } corresponding to the subset of edges of p which point downwards. It is not difficult to show that this association is in fact, bijective (i.e., given a snapshot set ? , there is a unique staircase walk p? mapping to ? ). 4 (a) (b) Figure 1: (a): Bayesian network representation of our model (augmented by adding the partial ranking ?). (b): Grid structured state space G for sampling snapshot sets with edges labeled with transition probabilities according to Equation 4.3. In this example, N = 5 and K (j) = 2. The example path (highlighted) is p = ((2, 3), (2, 2), (1, 2), (1, 1), (0, 1), (0, 0)), corresponding to the snapshot set ? = {4, 2}. We now show that our encoding of K (j) -subsets as staircase walks allows for the posterior over ? in Equation 4.2 to factor with respect to a hidden Markov model. Conditioned on ? = ? (j) , we define an HMM over G with the following transition and observation probabilities, respectively: P ((xt , yt ) | (xt?1 , yt?1 ) = (x, y)) ? ? ? x x+y y x+y ? 0 if (xt , yt ) = (x ? 1, y) if (xt , yt ) = (x, y ? 1) , otherwise (j) (j) (j) L(z?,?(N ?t) |(xt , yt ) = (xt , yt )) ? ?(xt , xt + yt ; z1,?(N ?t) , . . . , zK (j) ,?(N ?t) ), where ?(v, e; z1 , . . . , zK ) ? v?1 Y P (zi ; ?healthy , chealthy ) e e K Y (4.3) (4.4) P (zi ; ?occurred , coccurred ). e e i=v i=1 (j) (j) The initial state is set to (x0 , y0 ) = (K , N ?K ) and the chain terminates when (x, y) = (0, 0). Note that sample trajectories from the above HMM are staircase walks with probability one. (j) Proposition 1. Conditioned on ? = ? (j) , the posterior probability P (? = ? (j) | ? = ? (j) , z?,? ) is equal to the posterior probability of the staircase walk p? (j) under the hidden Markov model defined by Equations 4.3 and 4.4. To sample a snapshot set from the conditional distribution in Equation 4.2, we therefore sample staircase walks from the above HMM and convert the resulting samples to snapshot sets. Time Complexity of a single Gibbs iteration. We now consider the computational complexity of our inference procedures. First observe that the complexity of sampling from the posterior distribution of a Mallows model conditioned on a partial ranking is O(N 2 ) [9]. We claim that the complexity of sampling a snapshot set is also O(N 2 ). To see why, note that the complexity of the Backwards algorithm for HMMs is squared in the number of states and linear in the number of time steps. In our case, the number of states is K (j) (N ? K (j) ) and the number of time steps is N . Thus in the worst case (where K (j) ? N/2), the complexity of naively sampling a staircase walk is O(N 5 ). However we can exploit additional problem structure. First, since the HMM transition matrix is sparse (each state transitions to at most two states), the Backwards algorithm can be performed in O(N ? #(states)) time. Second, since the grid coordinates corresponding to the current state at time T are constrained to sum to N ? T , the size of the effective state space is reduced to O(N ) rather than O(K (j) (N ? K (j) )). Thus in the worst case, the running time complexity can in turn be reduced to O(N 2 ) and even linear time O(N ) when K (j) ? O(1). In conclusion, the total complexity of a single Gibbs iteration requires at most O(N 2 ) operations. Mixing considerations. Under mild assumptions, it is not difficult to establish ergodicity of our Gibbs sampler, showing that the sampling distribution must eventually converge to the desired posterior. The one exception is when the size of the snapshot set is one less than the number of events (K (j) = N ? 1). In this exceptional case,2 the grid G has size N ? 1, forcing the Gibbs sampler to be deterministic. As a result, the Markov chain defined by the Gibbs sampler is not irreducible and hence not ergodic. We have: Proposition 2. The Gibbs sampler is ergodic on its state space if and only if K (j) < N ? 1. 2 Note that to have so many snapshots for a single patient would be rare indeed. 5 Even when K (j) < N ? 1, mixing times for the chain can be longer for larger snapshot sets (where K (j) is close to N ? 1). For example, when K (j) = N ? 2, it is possible to show that the T th ordering in the Gibbs chain can differ from the (T + 1)th ordering by at most an adjacent swap. Consequently, since it requires O(N 2 ) adjacent swaps (in the worst case) to reach the mode of the posterior distribution with nonzero probability, we can lower bound the mixing time in this case by O(N 2 ) steps. For smaller K (j) , the Gibbs sampler is able to make larger jumps in state space and indeed, for these chains, we observe faster mixing times in practice. 4.2 Parameter estimation. Given a snapshot dataset {z (j) }j=1,...,M , we now discuss how to estimate the ALPACA model PM parameters (?0 , ?) by maximizing the marginal log likelihood: `(?0 , ?) = j=1 log P (z (j) |?0 , ?). Currently we obtain point estimates of model parameters, but fuller Bayesian approaches are also possible. Our approach uses Monte Carlo expectation maximization (EM) to alternate between the (0) following two steps given an initial setting of model parameters (?0 , ?(0) ). E-step. For each patient in the cohort, use the inference algorithm described in Section 4.1 to obtain a draw from the posterior distribution P (? (j) , ? (j) |z (j) , ?0 , ?). Note that multiple draws can also be taken to reduce the variance of the E-step. M-step. Given the draws obtained via the E-step, we can now apply standard Mallows model estimation algorithms (see [7, 16, 15]) to optimize for the parameters ?0 and ? given the sampled ordering for each patient. Optimizing for ?, for example, is a one-dimensional convex optimization [16]. Optimizing for ?0 (sometimes called the consensus ranking problem) is known to be NP-hard. Our implementation uses the Fligner and Verducci heuristic [7] (which is known to be an unbiased estimator of ?0 ) followed by local search, but more sophisticated estimators exist [16]. Note that the sampled snapshot sets ({? (j) }) do not play a role in the M-step described here, but can be used to estimate parameters for the more complex snapshot set distributions described in Section 5. Complexity of EM. The running time of a single iteration of our E-step requires O(N 2 TGibbs M ) time, where TGibbs is the number of Gibbs iterations. The running time of the M-step is O(N 2 M ) (assuming a single sample per patient), and is therefore dominated by the E-step complexity. 5 Extensions of the basic model Generalized ordering models. The classical Mallows model for orderings is often too limited for real datasets in its lack of flexibility. One limitation is that the positional variances of all of the events are governed by just a single parameter, ?. In clinical datasets, it is more conceivable that different biomarkers within a disease cascade change over different timescales, thus leading to higher positional variance for certain events and lower positional variance for others. Fortunately our approach applies to any class of distributions for which one can efficiently condition on partial ranking observations. In our experiments (Section 6), we achieve more flexibility using the generalized Mallows model [7, 16], which includes the classical Mallows model as a special case and allows for the positional variance of each event e to be governed by its own corresponding parameter ?e . Generalized Mallows models are in turn a special case of the recently introduced hierarchical riffle independent models [10] which allow one to capture dependencies among small subsets of events. Huang et al. ([11]), in particular, proved that these hierarchical riffle independent models form a natural conjugate prior family for partial ranking likelihood functions and introduced efficient algorithms for conditioning on partial ranking observations. It is finally interesting to note that it would not be trivial to use traditional Markov chains to capture the dependencies in the event sequence due to the fact that observations come in snapshot form instead of being indexed by time as they would be in an ordinary hidden Markov model. Thus in order to properly perform inference, one would have to infer an HMM posterior with respect to each of the permutations of the event set, which is computationally harder. Generalized snapshot set models. Going beyond the uniform distribution, ALPACA can also efficiently handle a more general class of snapshot set distribution by observing that any distribution parametrizable as a Markov chain over the grid G that generates staircase walks can be substituted for the uniform distribution with exactly the same time complexity of Gibbs sampling. As a cautionary remark, we note that allowing for these more general models without additional constraints can sometimes lead to instabilities in parameter estimation. A simple constrained Markov chain that we have successfully used in experiments parameterizes transition probabilities such that a staircase 6 (a) Central ranking recovery vs. measurement noise. Synthetic data, N = 10 events, M = 250 patients, K (j) ? {1, 2, 3}. Worst case Kendall?s tau score is 45.0. (b) Central ranking recovery vs. size of patient cohort. Synthetic data, N = 20 events, K (j) ? {1, . . . , 10}. Worst case Kendall?s tau score is 190.0. (d) BIC scores on the ADNI data (lower is better) comparing the ALPACA model (with varying settings of ?) against the single ordering model of [8] (shown in the ? ? column). (c) Illustration of mixing times using a Gibbs trace plot on a synthetic dataset with N = 20 and K (j) =4,8,12,16. Larger snapshots (larger K (j) ) lead to longer mixing times. (e) ADNI Patient staging. (Left) first order staging diagram, the (e, q)th entry is the probability that event e has/will occur in position q. (Right) posterior probability distribution over the position in the event ordering at which the patient snapshot was taken. Figure 2: Experimental results walk moves down at node (x, y) in the grid G with probability proportional to ?x and to the left with probability proportional to (1 ? ?)y. Setting ? = 1/2 recovers the uniform distribution. Setting 0 ? ? < 1/2, however, reflects a prior bias for snapshots to have been taken earlier in the disease cascade, while setting 1/2 < ? ? 1 reflects a prior bias for snapshots to have been taken later in the disease cascade. Thus ? intuitively allows us to interpolate between early and late detection. 6 Experiments Synthetic data experiments We first validate ALPACA on synthetic data. Since we are interested in the ability of the model to recover the true central ranking, we evaluate based on the Kendall?s tau distance between the ground truth central ranking and the central rankings learned by our algorithms. To understand how learning is impacted by measurement noise, we simulate data from models in which the means ?healthy and ?occurred are fixed to be 0 and 1, respectively and variances are AX selected uniformly at random from the interval (0, cM ), then learn model parameters from the e simulated data. Fig. 2(a) illustrates the results on a problem with N = 10 events and 250 patients AX varies between [0.2, 1.2]. As (with K (j) set to be 1, 2, or 3 randomly for each patient) as cM e shown in the figure, we obtain nearly perfect performance for low measurement noise with recovery rates degrading gracefully with higher measurement noise levels. We also show results on a larger problem with N = 20 events, ce = 0.1, and K (j) drawn uniformly at random from {1, . . . , 10}. Varying the cohort size, this time, Fig. 2(b) shows, as expected, that recovery rates for the central ordering improve as the number of patients increases. Note that with 20 events, it would be utterly intractable to use brute force inference algorithms, but our algorithms can process a patient?s measurements in roughly 3 seconds on a laptop. In both experiments for Figs. 2(a) and 2(b), we discard the first 200 burn-in iterations of Gibbs, but it is often sufficient to discard much fewer iterations. To illustrate mixing behavior, Fig. 2(c) shows example Gibbs trace plots with N = 20 events and varying sizes of the snapshot set, K (j) . We observe that mixing time increases as K (j) increases, confirming the discussion of mixing (Sec. 4.1). The ADNI dataset. We also present a preliminary analysis of a cohort with a total number of 347 subjects (including 83 control subjects) from the Alzheimer?s Disease Neuroimaging Institute (ADNI). We derive seven typical biomarkers associated with the onset of Alzheimers: (1) the total tau level in cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) [tau], (2) the total A?42 level in CSF [abeta], (3) the total ADAS cognitive assessment score [adas], (4) brain volume [brainvol], (5) hippocampal volume [hippovol], (6) brain atrophy rate [brainatrophy], and (7) hippocampal atrophy rate 7 [hippoatrophy]. Due to the small number of measured events in the ADNI data, it is possible to apply the model of Fonteijn et al. [8] (which assumes that all patients follow a single ordering ? ? ) by searching exhaustively over the collection of all 7! = 5040 orderings. We compare the ALPACA model against the single ordering model via BIC scores (shown in Fig. 2(d)). We fit our model five times, with the bias parameter ? (described in Section 5) set to .1, .3, .5, .7, .9. We use a single Gaussian for each of the healthy and occurred measurement distributions (as described in [8]), assuming that all patients in the control group are healthy.3 The results show that by allowing for the event ordering ? to vary across patients, the ALPACA model significantly outperforms the single ordering model (shown in the ? ? column) in BIC score with respect to all of the tried settings of ?. Further, we observe that setting ? = 0.1 minimizes the BIC, reflecting the fact, we conjecture, that many of the patients in the ADNI cohort are in the earlier stages of Alzheimers. The optimal central ordering inferred by the Fonteijn model is: ? ? = adas|hippovol|hippoatrophy|brainatrophy|abeta|tau|brainvol, while ALPACA infers the central ordering: ?0 = adas|hippovol|abeta|hippoatrophy|tau|brainatrophy|brainvol. Observe that the two event orderings are largely in agreement with each other with CSF A?42 and CSF tau events shifted to being earlier in the event ordering, which is more consistent with current thinking in neurology [12, 5, 1], which places the two CSF events first. Note that adas is first in both orderings as it was used to classify the patients ? thus its position is somewhat artificial. It is surprising that the hippocampal volume and atrophy events are inferred in both models to occur before the CSF events [13], but we believe that this may be due to the significant proportion of misdiagnosed patients in the data. These misdiagnosed patients still have heavy atrophy in the hippocampus, which is a common pathology among many neurological conditions (other dementias and psychiatric disorders), but a change in CSF A? is much more specific to AD. Future work will adapt the model for robustness to these misdiagnoses and other outliers. Finally, Fig. 2(e) shows the patient staging result for an example patient from the ADNI data. The left matrix visualizes the probability that each event will occur in each position of the event ordering given snapshot data from this patient, while the right histogram visualizes where in the event ordering the patient was situated when the snapshot was taken. 7 Conclusions We have developed the Alzheimer?s disease Probabilistic Cascades model for event ordering within the Alzheimer?s disease cascade. In its most basic form, ALPACA is a simple model with generative semantics, allowing one to learn the central ordering of events that occur within a disease progression as well as to quantify the variance of this ordering across patients. Our preliminary results show that relaxing the notion that a single ordering over events exists for all patients allows ALPACA to achieve a much better fit to snapshot data from a cohort of Alzheimer?s patients. One of our main contributions is to show how the combinatorial structure of event ordering models can be exploited for algorithmic efficiency. While exact inference remains intractable for ALPACA, we have presented a simple MCMC based procedure which uses dynamic programming as a subroutine for highly efficient inference. There may exist biomarkers for Alzheimer?s which are more effective than those considered in our current work for the purposes of patient staging. Identifying such biomarker events remains an open question crucial to the success of data-driven models of disease cascades. Fortunately, one of the main advantages of ALPACA lies in its extensibility and modularity. We have discussed several such possible extensions, from more general measurement models to more general riffle independent ordering models. Additionally, with the ability to scale gracefully with problem size as well as to handle noise, we believe that the ALPACA model will be applicable to many other Alzheimer?s datasets as well as datasets for other neurodegenerative diseases. Acknowledgements J. Huang is supported by a NSF Computing Innovation Fellowship. The EPSRC support D. Alexander?s work on this topic with grant EP/J020990/01. The authors also thank Dr. Jonathan Schott, UCL Dementia Centre, and Dr. Jonathan Bartlett, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, for preparation of the data and help with interpretation of the results. 3 We note that this assumption is a major oversimplification as some of the control subjects are likely affected by some non-AD neurodegenerative disease. Due to these difficulties in obtaining ground truth data, however, estimating accurate measurement models can sometimes be a limitation. 8 References [1] Paul S. Aisen, Ronald C. Petersen, Michael C. Donohue, Anthony Gamst, Rema Raman, Ronald G. Thomas, Sarah Walter, John Q. Trojanowski, Leslie M. Shaw, Laurel A. Beckett, Clifford R. Jack, William Jagust, Arthur W. Toga, Andrew J. Saykin, John C. Morris, Robert C. Green, and Michael W. Weiner. The alzheimer?s disease neuroimaging initiative: progress report and future plans. Alzheimers dementia the journal of the Alzheimers Association, 6(3):239?246, 2010. [2] Laurel Beckett. Maximum likelihood estimation in Mallows?s model using partially ranked data., pages 92?107. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1993. [3] H. Braak and E. Braak. Neuropathological staging of alzheimer-related changes. Acta Neuropathol., 82:239?259, 1991. [4] Ludwig M. Busse, Peter Orbanz, and Joachim Buhmann. Cluster analysis of heterogeneous rank data. In The 24th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML ?07, Corvallis, Oregon, June 2007. [5] A Caroli and G B Frisoni. The dynamics of alzheimer?s disease biomarkers in the alzheimer?s disease neuroimaging initiative cohort. Neurobiology of Aging, 31(8):1263?1274, 2010. [6] Harr Chen, S. R. K. Branavan, Regina Barzilay, and David R. Karger. Global models of document structure using latent permutations. In Proceedings of Human Language Technologies: The 2009 Annual Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, NAACL ?09, pages 371?379, Stroudsburg, PA, USA, 2009. Association for Computational Linguistics. [7] Michael Fligner and Joseph Verducci. Mulistage ranking models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83(403):892?901, 1988. [8] Hubert M. Fonteijn, Marc Modat, Matthew J. Clarkson, Josephine Barnes, Manja Lehmann, Nicola Z. Hobbs, Rachael I. Scahill, Sarah J. Tabrizi, Sebastien Ourselin, Nick C. Fox, and Daniel C. Alexander. An event-based model for disease progression and its application in familial alzheimer?s disease and huntington?s disease. NeuroImage, 60(3):1880 ? 1889, 2012. [9] Jonathan Huang. Probabilistic Reasoning and Learning on Permutations: Exploiting Structural Decompositions of the Symmetric Group. PhD thesis, Carnegie Mellon University, 2011. [10] Jonathan Huang and Carlos Guestrin. Learning hierarchical riffle independent groupings from rankings. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2010), Haifa, Israel, June 2010. [11] Jonathan Huang, Ashish Kapoor, and Carlos Guestrin. Efficient probabilistic inference with partial ranking queries. In Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Barcelona, Spain, July 2011. [12] Clifford R Jack, David S Knopman, William J Jagust, Leslie M Shaw, Paul S Aisen, Michael W Weiner, Ronald C Petersen, and John Q Trojanowski. Hypothetical model of dynamic biomarkers of the alzheimer?s pathological cascade. The Lancet Neurology 1, 9:119?128, January 2010. [13] Clifford R. Jack, Prashanthi Vemuri, Heather J. Wiste, Stephen D. Weigand, Paul S. Aisen, John Q. Trojanowski, Leslie M. Shaw, Matthew A. Bernstein, Ronald C. Petersen, Michael W. Weiner, and David S. Knopman. Evidence for ordering of alzheimer disease biomarkers. Archives of Neurology, 2011. [14] Guy Lebanon and Yi Mao. Non-parametric modeling of partially ranked data. In John C. Platt, Daphne Koller, Yoram Singer, and Sam Roweis, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, NIPS ?07, pages 857?864, Cambridge, MA, 2008. MIT Press. [15] Tyler Lu and Craig Boutilier. Learning mallows models with pairwise preferences. In The 28th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML ?11, Bellevue, Washington, June 2011. [16] Marina Meila, Kapil Phadnis, Arthur Patterson, and Jeff Bilmes. Consensus ranking under the exponential model. Technical Report 515, University of Washington, Statistics Department, April 2007. [17] Rachael I. Scahill, Jonathan M. Schott, John M. Stevens, Martin N. Rossor, and Nick C. Fox. Mapping the evolution of regional atrophy in alzheimer?s disease: Unbiased analysis of fluid-registered serial mri. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(7):4703?4707, 2002. [18] Mark Steyvers, Michael Lee, Brent Miller, and Pernille Hemmer. The wisdom of crowds in the recollection of order information. In Y. Bengio, D. Schuurmans, J. Lafferty, C. K. I. Williams, and A. Culotta, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 22, pages 1785?1793. 2009. 9
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Scalable Influence Estimation in Continuous-Time Diffusion Networks Nan Du? Le Song? Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez? Hongyuan Zha? ? Georgia Institute of Technology MPI for Intelligent Systems? [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract If a piece of information is released from a media site, can we predict whether it may spread to one million web pages, in a month ? This influence estimation problem is very challenging since both the time-sensitive nature of the task and the requirement of scalability need to be addressed simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a randomized algorithm for influence estimation in continuous-time diffusion networks. Our algorithm can estimate the influence of every node in a network with |V| nodes and |E| edges to an accuracy of  using n = O(1/2 ) randomizations and up to logarithmic factors O(n|E|+n|V|) computations. When used as a subroutine in a greedy influence maximization approach, our proposed algorithm is guaranteed to find a set of C nodes with the influence of at least (1 ? 1/e) OPT ?2C, where OPT is the optimal value. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that the proposed algorithm can easily scale up to networks of millions of nodes while significantly improves over previous state-of-the-arts in terms of the accuracy of the estimated influence and the quality of the selected nodes in maximizing the influence. 1 Introduction Motivated by applications in viral marketing [1], researchers have been studying the influence maximization problem: find a set of nodes whose initial adoptions of certain idea or product can trigger, in a time window, the largest expected number of follow-ups. For this purpose, it is essential to accurately and efficiently estimate the number of follow-ups of an arbitrary set of source nodes within the given time window. This is a challenging problem for that we need first accurately model the timing information in cascade data and then design a scalable algorithm to deal with large real-world networks. Most previous work in the literature tackled the influence estimation and maximization problems for infinite time window [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. However, in most cases, influence must be estimated or maximized up to a given time, i.e., a finite time window must be considered [7]. For example, a marketer would like to have her advertisement viewed by a million people in one month, rather than in one hundred years. Such time-sensitive requirement renders those algorithms which only consider static information, such as network topologies, inappropriate in this context. A sequence of recent work has argued that modeling cascade data and information diffusion using continuous-time diffusion networks can provide significantly more accurate models than discretetime models [8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15]. There is a twofold rationale behind this modeling choice. First, since follow-ups occur asynchronously, continuous variables seem more appropriate to represent them. Artificially discretizing the time axis into bins introduces additional tuning parameters, like the bin size, which are not easy to choose optimally. Second, discrete time models can only describe transmission times which obey an exponential density, and hence can be too restricted to capture the rich temporal dynamics in the data. Extensive experimental comparisons on both synthetic and real world data showed that continuous-time models yield significant improvement in settings such as recovering hidden diffusion network structures from cascade data [8, 10] and predicting the timings of future events [9, 14]. 1 However, estimating and maximizing influence based on continuous-time diffusion models also entail many challenges. First, the influence estimation problem in this setting is a difficult graphical model inference problem, i.e., computing the marginal density of continuous variables in loopy graphical models. The exact answer can be computed only for very special cases. For example, Gomez-Rodriguez et al. [7] have shown that the problem can be solved exactly when the transmission functions are exponential densities, by using continuous time Markov processes theory. However, the computational complexity of such approach, in general, scales exponentially with the size and density of the network. Moreover, extending the approach to deal with arbitrary transmission functions would require additional nontrivial approximations which would increase even more the computational complexity. Second, it is unclear how to scale up influence estimation and maximization algorithms based on continuous-time diffusion models to millions of nodes. Especially in the maximization case, even a naive sampling algorithm for approximate inference is not scalable: n sampling rounds need to be carried out for each node to estimate the influence, which results in an overall O(n|V||E|) algorithm. Thus, our goal is to design a scalable algorithm which can perform influence estimation and maximization in this regime of networks with millions of nodes. In particular, we propose C ON T IN E ST (Continous-Time Influence Estimation), a scalable randomized algorithm for influence estimation in a continuous-time diffusion network with heterogeneous edge transmission functions. The key idea of the algorithm is to view the problem from the perspective of graphical model inference, and reduces the problem to a neighborhood estimation problem in graphs. Our algorithm can estimate the influence of every node in a network with |V| nodes and |E| edges to an accuracy of  using n = O(1/2 ) randomizations and up to logarithmic factors O(n|E| + n|V|) computations. When used as a subroutine in a greedy influence maximization algorithm, our proposed algorithm is guaranteed to find a set of nodes with an influence of at least (1 ? 1/e) OPT ?2C, where OPT is the optimal value. Finally, we validate C ON T IN E ST on both influence estimation and maximization problems over large synthetic and real world datasets. In terms of influence estimation, C ON T IN E ST is much closer to the true influence and much faster than other state-of-the-art methods. With respect to the influence maximization, C ON T IN E ST allows us to find a set of sources with greater influence than other state-of-the-art methods. 2 Continuous-Time Diffusion Networks First, we revisit the continuous-time generative model for cascade data in social networks introduced in [10]. The model associates each edge j ? i with a transmission function, fji (?ji ), a density over time, in contrast to previous discrete-time models which associate each edge with a fixed infection probability [1]. Moreover, it also differs from discrete-time models in the sense that events in a cascade are not generated iteratively in rounds, but event timings are sampled directly from the transmission function in the continuous-time model. Continuous-Time Independent Cascade Model. Given a directed contact network, G = (V, E), we use a continuous-time independent cascade model for modeling a diffusion process [10]. The process begins with a set of infected source nodes, A, initially adopting certain contagion (idea, meme or product) at time zero. The contagion is transmitted from the sources along their out-going edges to their direct neighbors. Each transmission through an edge entails a random spreading time, ? , drawn from a density over time, fji (? ). We assume transmission times are independent and possibly distributed differently across edges. Then, the infected neighbors transmit the contagion to their respective neighbors, and the process continues. We assume that an infected node remains infected for the entire diffusion process. Thus, if a node i is infected by multiple neighbors, only the neighbor that first infects node i will be the true parent. As a result, although the contact network can be an arbitrary directed network, each cascade (a vector of event timing information from the spread of a contagion) induces a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). Heterogeneous Transmission Functions. Formally, the transmission function fji (ti |tj ) for directed edge j ? i is the conditional density of node i getting infected at time ti given that node j was infected at time tj . We assume it is shift invariant: fji (ti |tj ) = fji (?ji ), where ?ji := ti ? tj , and nonnegative: fji (?ji ) = 0 if ?ji < 0. Both parametric transmission functions, such as the exponential and Rayleigh function [10, 16], and nonparametric function [8] can be used and estimated from cascade data (see Appendix A for more details). Shortest-Path property. The independent cascade model has a useful property we will use later: given a sample of transmission times of all edges, the time ti taken to infect a node i is the length 2 of the shortest path in G from the sources to node i, where the edge weights correspond to the associated transmission times. 3 Graphical Model Perspectives for Continuous-Time Diffusion Networks The continuous-time independent cascade model is essentially a directed graphical model for a set of dependent random variables, the infection times ti of the nodes, where the conditional independence structure is supported on the contact network G (see Appendix B for more details). More formally, the joint density of {ti }i?V can be expressed as Y p ({ti }i?V ) = p (ti |{tj }j??i ) , (1) i?V where ?i denotes the set of parents of node i in a cascade-induced DAG, and p(ti |{tj }j??i ) is the conditional density of infection ti at node i given the infection times of its parents. Instead of directly modeling the infection times ti , we can focus on the set of mutually independent random transmission times ?ji = ti ? tj . Interestingly, by switching from a node-centric view to an edge-centric view, we obtain a fully factorized joint density of the set of transmission times  Y p {?ji }(j,i)?E = fji (?ji ), (2) (j,i)?E Based on the Shortest-Path property of the independent cascade model, each variable ti can be viewed as a transformation from the collection of variables {?ji }(j,i)?E . More specifically, let Qi be the collection of directed paths in G from the source nodes to node i, where each path q ? Qi contains a sequence of directed edges (j, l). Assuming all source nodes are infected at zero time, then we obtain variable ti via X  ti = gi {?ji }(j,i)?E := min ?jl , (3) q?Qi (j,l)?q where the transformation gi (?) is the value of the shortest-path minimization. As a special case, we can now compute the probability of node i infected before T using a set of independent variables:   (4) Pr {ti ? T } = Pr gi {?ji }(j,i)?E ? T . The significance of the relation is that it allows us to transform a problem involving a sequence of dependent variables {ti }i?V to one with independent variables {?ji }(j,i)?E . Furthermore, the two perspectives are connected via the shortest path algorithm in weighted directed graph, a standard well-studied operation in graph analysis. 4 Influence Estimation Problem in Continuous-Time Diffusion Networks Intuitively, given a time window, the wider the spread of infection, the more influential the set of sources. We adopt the definition of influence as the average number of infected nodes given a set of source nodes and a time window, as in previous work [7]. More formally, consider a set of C source nodes A ? V which gets infected at time zero, then, given a time window T , a node i is infected in the time window if ti ? T . The expected number of infected nodes (or the influence) given the set of transmission functions {fji }(j,i)?E can be computed as hX i X X ?(A, T ) = E I {ti ? T } = E [I {ti ? T }] = Pr {ti ? T } , (5) i?V i?V i?V where I {?} is the indicator function and the expectation is taken over the the set of dependent variables {ti }i?V . Essentially, the influence estimation problem in Eq. (5) is an inference problem for graphical models, where the probability of event ti ? T given sources in A can be obtained by summing out the possible configuration of other variables {tj }j6=i . That is Z ? Z T Z ? Y   Y Pr{ti ? T } = ??? ??? p tj |{tl }l??j dtj , (6) 0 ti =0 j?V 0 j?V which is, in general, a very challenging problem. First, the corresponding directed graphical models can contain nodes with high in-degree and high out-degree. For example, in Twitter, a user can follow dozens of other users, and another user can have hundreds of ?followees?. The tree-width corresponding to this directed graphical model can be very high, and we need to perform integration for functions involving many continuous variables. Second, the integral in general can not be eval3 uated analytically for heterogeneous transmission functions, which means that we need to resort to numerical integration by discretizing the domain [0, ?). If we use N level of discretization for each variable, we would need to enumerate O(N |?i | ) entries, exponential in the number of parents. Only in very special cases, can one derive the closed-form equation for computing Pr{ti ? T } [7]. However, without further heuristic approximation, the computational complexity of the algorithm is exponential in the size and density of the network. The intrinsic complexity of the problem entails the utilization of approximation algorithms, such as mean field algorithms or message passing algorithms.We will design an efficient randomized (or sampling) algorithm in the next section. 5 Efficient Influence Estimation in Continuous-Time Diffusion Networks Our first key observation is that we can transform the influence estimation problem in Eq. (5) into a problem with independent variables. Using relation in Eq. (4), we have hX X     i ?(A, T ) = Pr gi {?ji }(j,i)?E ? T = E I gi {?ji }(j,i)?E ? T , (7) i?V i?V where the expectation is with respect to the set of independent variables {?ji }(j,i)?E . This equivalent formulation suggests a naive sampling (NS) algorithm for approximating ?(A, T ): draw n samples of {?ji }(j,i)?E , run a shortest path algorithm for each sample, and finally average the results (see Appendix C for more details). However, this naive sampling approach has a computational complexity of O(nC|V||E| + nC|V|2 log |V|) due to the repeated calling of the shortest path algorithm. This is quadratic to the network size, and hence not scalable to millions of nodes. Our second key observation is that for each sample {?ji }(j,i)?E P , we are only interested in the neighborhood size of the source nodes, i.e., the summation i?V I {?} in Eq. (7), rather than in the individual shortest paths. Fortunately, the neighborhood size estimation problem has been studied in the theoretical computer science literature. Here, we adapt a very efficient randomized algorithm by Cohen [17] to our influence estimation problem. This randomized algorithm has a computational complexity of O(|E| log |V| + |V| log2 |V|) and it estimates the neighborhood sizes for all possible single source node locations. Since it needs to run once for each sample of {?ji }(j,i)?E , we obtain an overall influence estimation algorithm with O(n|E| log |V| + n|V| log2 |V|) computation, nearly linear in network size. Next we will revisit Cohen?s algorithm for neighborhood estimation. 5.1 Randomized Algorithm for Single-Source Neighborhood Size Estimation Given a fixed set of edge transmission times {?ji }(j,i)?E and a source node s, infected at time 0, the neighborhood N (s, T ) of a source node s given a time window T is the set of nodes within distance T from s, i.e.,   (8) N (s, T ) = i gi {?ji }(j,i)?E ? T, i ? V . Instead of estimating N (s, T ) directly, the algorithm will assign an exponentially distributed random label ri to each network node i. Then, it makes use of the fact that the minimum of a set of exponential random variables {ri }i?N (s,T ) will also be a exponential random variable, but with its parameter equals to the number of variables. That is if each ri ? exp(?ri ), then the smallest label within distance T from source s, r? := mini?N (s,T ) ri , will distribute as r? ? exp {?|N (s, T )|r? }. Suppose we randomize over the labeling m times, and obtain m such least labels, {r?u }m u=1 . Then the neighborhood size can be estimated as m?1 |N (s, T )| ? Pm u . (9) u=1 r? which is shown to be an unbiased estimator of |N (s, T )| [17]. This is an interesting relation since it allows us to transform the counting problem in (8) to a problem of finding the minimum random label r? . The key question is whether we can compute the least label r? efficiently, given random labels {ri }i?V and any source node s. Cohen [17] designed a modified Dijkstra?s algorithm (Algorithm 1) to construct a data structure r? (s), called least label list, for each node s to support such query. Essentially, the algorithm starts with the node i with the smallest label ri , and then it traverses in breadth-first search fashion along the reverse direction of the graph edges to find all reachable nodes. For each reachable node s, the distance d? between i and s, and ri are added to the end of r? (s). Then the algorithm moves to the node i0 with the second smallest label ri0 , and similarly find all reachable nodes. For each reachable 4 node s, the algorithm will compare the current distance d? between i0 and s with the last recorded distance in r? (s). If the current distance is smaller, then the current d? and ri0 are added to the end of r? (s). Then the algorithm move to the node with the third smallest label and so on. The algorithm is summarized in Algorithm 1 in Appendix D. Algorithm 1 returns a list r? (s) per node s ? V, which contains information about distance to the smallest reachable labels from s. In particular, each list contains pairs of distance and random labels, (d, r), and these pairs are ordered as ? > d(1) > d(2) > . . . > d(|r? (s)|) = 0 (10) r(1) < r(2) < . . . < r(|r? (s)|) , (11) where {?}(l) denotes the l-th element in the list. (see Appendix D for an example). If we want to query the smallest reachable random label r? for a given source s and a time T , we only need to perform a binary search on the list for node s: r? = r(l) , where d(l?1) > T ? d(l) . (12) Finally, to estimate |N (s, T )|, we generate m i.i.d. collections of random labels, run Algorithm 1 m on each collection, and obtain m values {r?u }u=1 , which we use on Eq. (9) to estimate |N (i, T )|. The computational complexity of Algorithm 1 is O(|E| log |V| + |V| log2 |V|), with expected size of each r? (s) being O(log |V|). Then the expected time for querying r? is O(log log |V|) using binary search. Since we need to generate m set of random labels and run Algorithm 1 m times, the overall computational complexity for estimating the single-source neighborhood size for all s ? V is O(m|E| log |V| + m|V| log2 |V| + m|V| log log |V|). For large scale network, and when m  min{|V|, |E|}, this randomized algorithm can be much more efficient than approaches based on directly calculating the shortest paths. 5.2 Constructing Estimation for Multiple-Source Neighborhood Size When we have a set of sources, A, its neighborhood is the union of the neighborhoods of its constituent sources [ N (A, T ) = N (i, T ). (13) i?A This is true because each source independently infects its downstream nodes. Furthermore, to calculate the least label list r? corresponding to N (A, T ), we can simply reuse the least label list r? (i) of each individual source i ? A. More formally, r? = mini?A minj?N (i,T ) rj , (14) where the inner minimization can be carried out by querying r? (i). Similarly, after we obtain m samples of r? , we can estimate |N (A, T )| using Eq. (9). Importantly, very little additional work is needed when we want to calculate r? for a set of sources A, and we can reuse work done for a single source. This is very different from a naive sampling approach where the sampling process needs to be done completely anew if we increase the source set. In contrast, using the randomized algorithm, only an additional constant-time minimization over |A| numbers is needed. 5.3 Overall Algorithm So far, we have achieved efficient neighborhood size estimation of |N (A, T )| with respect to a given set of transmission times {?ji }(j,i)?E . Next, we will estimate the influence by averaging over multiple sets of samples for {?ji }(j,i)?E . More specifically, the relation from (7)   m?1 ?(A, T ) = E{?ji }(j,i)?E [|N (A, T )|] = E{?ji } E{r1 ,...,rm }|{?ji } Pm u , (15) u=1 r? suggests the following overall algorithm Continuous-Time Influence Estimation (C ON T IN E ST): l 1. Sample n sets of random transmission times {?ij }(j,i)?E ? (j,i)?E fji (?ji ) Q u sample m sets of random labels {ri }i?V ? exp(?ri ) Pn Pm i?V ul  1 sample averages ?(A, T ) ? n l=1 (m ? 1)/ ul =1 r? l {?ij }(j,i)?E , 2. Given a set of 3. Estimate ?(A, T ) by Q 5 Importantly, the number of random labels, m, does not need to be very large. Since the estimator for |N (A, T )| is unbiased [17], essentially the outer-loop of averaging over n samples of random transmission times further reduces the variance of the estimator in a rate of O(1/n). In practice, we can use a very small m (e.g., 5 or 10) and still achieve good results, which is also confirmed by our later experiments. Compared to [2], the novel application of Cohen?s algorithm arises for estimating influence for multiple sources, which drastically reduces the computation by cleverly using the least-label list from single source. Moreover, we have the following theoretical guarantee (see Appendix E for proof) Theorem 1 Draw the following number of samples for the set of random transmission times   C? 2|V| n > 2 log  ? (16) where ? := maxA:|A|?C 2?(A, T )2 /(m ? 2) + 2V ar(|N (A, T )|)(m ? 1)/(m ? 2) + 2a/3 and |N (A, T )| ? a, and for each set of random transmission times, draw m set of random labels. Then |b ? (A, T ) ? ?(A, T )| 6  uniformly for all A with |A| 6 C, with probability at least 1 ? ?. The theorem indicates that the minimum number of samples, n, needed to achieve certain accuracy is related to the actual size of the influence ?(A, T ), and the variance of the neighborhood size |N (A, T )| over the random draw of samples. The number of random labels, m, drawn in the inner loop of the algorithm will monotonically decrease the dependency of n on ?(A, T ). It suffices to draw a small number of random labels, as long as the value of ?(A, T )2 /(m ? 2) matches that of V ar(|N (A, T )|). Another implication is that influence at larger time window T is harder to estimate, since ?(A, T ) will generally be larger and hence require more random labels. 6 Influence Maximization Once we know how to estimate the influence ?(A, T ) for any A ? V and time window T efficiently, we can use them in finding the optimal set of C source nodes A? ? V such that the expected number of infected nodes in G is maximized at T . That is, we seek to solve, A? = argmax|A|6C ?(A, T ), (17) where set A is the variable. The above optimization problem is NP-hard in general. By construction, ?(A, T ) is a non-negative, monotonic nondecreasing function in the set of source nodes, and it can be shown that ?(A, T ) satisfies a diminishing returns property called submodularity [7]. A well-known approximation algorithm to maximize monotonic submodular functions is the greedy algorithm. It adds nodes to the source node set A sequentially. In step k, it adds the node i which maximizes the marginal gain ?(Ak?1 ? {i}; T ) ? ?(Ak?1 ; T ). The greedy algorithm finds a source node set which achieves at least a constant fraction (1 ? 1/e) of the optimal [18]. Moreover, lazy evaluation [5] can be employed to reduce the required number of marginal gains per iteration. By using our influence estimation algorithm in each iteration of the greedy algorithm, we gain the following additional benefits: First, at each iteration k, we do not need to rerun the full influence estimation algorithm (section 5.2). We just need to store the least label list r? (i) for each node i ? V computed for a single source, which requires expected storage size of O(|V| log |V|) overall. Second, our influence estimation algorithm can be easily parallelized. Its two nested sampling loops can be parallelized in a straightforward way since the variables are independent of each other. However, in practice, we use a small number of random labels, and m  n. Thus we only need to parallelize the sampling for the set of random transmission times {?ji }. The storage of the least element lists can also be distributed. However, by using our randomized algorithm for influence estimation, we also introduce a sampling error to the greedy algorithm due to the approximation of the influence ?(A, T ). Fortunately, the greedy algorithm is tolerant to such sampling noise, and a well-known result provides a guarantee for this case (following an argument in [19, Th. 7.9]): Theorem 2 Suppose the influence ?(A, T ) for all A with |A| ? C are estimated uniformly with b T) ? error  and confidence 1 ? ?, the greedy algorithm returns a set of sources Ab such that ?(A, (1 ? 1/e)OP T ? 2C with probability at least 1 ? ?. 6 ?3 8 0.06 relative error influence 150 100 0.04 0.02 50 0 x 10 0.08 NS ConTinEst relative error 200 2 4 6 8 T (a) Influence vs. time 10 0 2 10 6 4 2 3 10 #samples (b) Error vs. #samples 4 10 0 5 10 20 30 #labels 40 50 (c) Error vs. #labels Figure 1: For core-periphery networks with 1,024 nodes and 2,048 edges, (a) estimated influence for increasing time window T , and (b) fixing T = 10, relative error for increasing number of samples with 5 random labels, and (c) for increasing number of random labels with 10,000 random samples. 7 Experiments We evaluate the accuracy of the estimated influence given by C ON T IN E ST and investigate the performance of influence maximization on synthetic and real networks. We show that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both speed and solution quality. Synthetic network generation. We generate three types of Kronecker networks [20]: (i) coreperiphery networks (parameter matrix: [0.9 0.5; 0.5 0.3]), which mimic the information diffusion traces in real world networks [21], (ii) random networks ([0.5 0.5; 0.5 0.5]), typically used in physics and graph theory [22] and (iii) hierarchical networks ([0.9 0.1; 0.1 0.9]) [10]. Next, we assign a pairwise transmission function for every directed edge in each type of network and set its parameters at random. In our experiments, we use the Weibull distribution [16],  ? t ??1 ?(t/?)? f (t; ?, ?) = ? e , t > 0, where ? > 0 is a scale parameter and ? > 0 is a shape ? parameter. The Weibull distribution (Wbl) has often been used to model lifetime events in survival analysis, providing more flexibility than an exponential distribution [16]. We choose ? and ? from 0 to 10 uniformly at random for each edge in order to have heterogeneous temporal dynamics. Finally, for each type of Kronecker network, we generate 10 sample networks, each of which has different ? and ? chosen for every edge. Accuracy of the estimated influence. To the best of our knowledge, there is no analytical solution to the influence estimation given Weibull transmission function. Therefore, we compare C ON T IN E ST with Naive Sampling (NS) approach (see Appendix C) by considering the highest degree node in a network as the source, and draw 1,000,000 samples for NS to obtain near ground truth. Figures 1(a) compares C ON T IN E ST with the ground truth provided by NS at different time window T , from 0.1 to 10 in corre-periphery networks. For C ON T IN E ST, we generate up to 10,000 random samples (or set of random waiting times), and 5 random labels in the inner loop. In all three networks, estimation provided by C ON T IN E ST fits accurately the ground truth, and the relative error decreases quickly as we increase the number of samples and labels (Figures 1(b) and 1(c)). For 10,000 random samples with 5 random labels, the relative error is smaller than 0.01. (see Appendix F for additional results on the random and hierarchal networks) Scalability. We compare C ON T IN E ST to the state-of-the-art method I NFLUMAX [7] and the Naive Sampling (NS) method in terms of runtime for the continuous-time influence estimation and maximization. For C ON T IN E ST, we draw 10,000 samples in the outer loop, each having 5 random labels in the inner loop. For NS, we also draw 10,000 samples. The first two experiments are carried out in a single 2.4GHz processor. First, we compare the performance of increasingly selecting sources (from 1 to 10) on small core-periphery networks (Figure 2(a)). When the number of selected sources is 1, different algorithms essentially spend time estimating the influence for each node. C ON T IN E ST outperforms other methods by order of magnitude and for the number of sources larger than 1, it can efficiently reuse computations for estimating influence for individual nodes. Dashed lines mean that a method did not finish in 24 hours, and the estimated run time is plotted. Next, we compare the run time for selecting 10 sources on core-periphery networks of 128 nodes with increasing densities (or the number of edges) (Figure 2(a)). Again, I NFLUMAX and NS are order of magnitude slower due to their respective exponential and quadratic computational complexity in network density. In contrast, the run time of C ON T IN E ST only increases slightly with the increasing density since its computational complexity is linear in the number of edges (see Appendix F for additional results on the random and hierarchal networks). Finally, we evaluate the speed on large core-periphery networks, ranging from 100 to 1,000,000 nodes with density 1.5 in Figure 2(c). We report the parallel run time 7 > 24 hours 5 4 > 48 hours 5 10 3 10 time(s) 10 time(s) time(s) 6 10 4 10 3 10 10 10 10 2 1 1 10 10 10 ConTinEst 0 1 2 3 4 NS 5 6 7 #sources Influmax 8 ConTinEst 0 10 1.5 9 10 4 10 3 2 2 10 > 24 hours 5 10 10 2 2.5 NS 3 3.5 density ConTinEst NS Influmax 4 4.5 2 5 3 10 10 4 5 10 #nodes 6 10 10 (a) Run time vs. # sources (b) Run time vs. network density (c) Run time vs. #nodes Figure 2: For core-periphery networks with T = 10, runtime for (a) selecting increasing number of sources in networks of 128 nodes and 320 edges; for (b)selecting 10 sources in networks of 128 nodes with increasing density; and for (c) selecting 10 sources with increasing network size from 100 to 1,000,000 fixing 1.5 density. ConTinEst IC LT SP1M PMIA 3 2 1.5 60 40 30 20 1 0.5 50 influence MAE 2.5 80 60 influence 3.5 ConTinEst Greedy(IC) Greedy(LT) SP1M PMIA 10 10 20 30 T 40 50 0 0 10 20 30 #sources 40 50 (a) Influence estimation error (b) Influence vs. #sources 40 ConTinEst(Wbl) Greedy(IC) Greedy(LT) SP1M PMIA 20 0 0 5 10 T 15 20 (c) Influence vs. time Figure 3: In MemeTracker dataset, (a) comparison of the accuracy of the estimated influence in terms of mean absolute error, (b) comparison of the influence of the selected nodes by fixing the observation window T = 5 and varying the number sources, and (c) comparison of the influence of the selected nodes by by fixing the number of sources to 50 and varying the time window. only for C ON T IN E ST and NS (both are implemented by MPI running on 192 cores of 2.4Ghz) since I NFLUMAX is not scalable. In contrast to NS, the performance of C ON T IN E ST increases linearly with the network size and can easily scale up to one million nodes. Real-world data. We first quantify how well each method can estimate the true influence in a real-world dataset. Then, we evaluate the solution quality of the selected sources for influence maximization. We use the MemeTracker dataset [23] which has 10,967 hyperlink cascades among 600 media sites. We repeatedly split all cascades into a 80% training set and a 20% test set at random for five times. On each training set, we learn the continuous-time model using N ET R ATE [10] with exponential transmission functions. For discrete-time model, we learn the infection probabilities using [24] for IC, SP1M and PMIA. Similarly, for LT, we follow the methodology by [1]. Let C(u) be the set of all cascades where u was the source node. Based on C(u), the total number of distinct nodes infected before T quantifies the real influence of node u up to time T . In Figure 3(a), we report the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between the real and the estimated influence. Clearly, C ON T IN E ST performs the best statistically. Because the length of real cascades empirically conforms to a power-law distribution where most cascades are very short (2-4 nodes), the gap of the estimation error is relatively not large. However, we emphasize that such accuracy improvement is critical for maximizing long-term influence. The estimation error for individuals will accumulate along the spreading paths. Hence, any consistent improvement in influence estimation can lead to significant improvement to the overall influence estimation and maximization task, which is further confirmed by Figures 3(b) and 3(c) where we evaluate the influence of the selected nodes in the same spirit as influence estimation: the true influence is calculated as the total number of distinct nodes infected before T based on C(u) of the selected nodes. The selected sources given by C ON T IN E ST achieve the best performance as we vary the number of selected sources and the observation time window. 8 Conclusions We propose a randomized influence estimation algorithm in continuous-time diffusion networks, which can scale up to networks of millions of nodes while significantly improves over previous stateof-the-arts in terms of the accuracy of the estimated influence and the quality of the selected nodes in maximizing the influence. In future work, it will be interesting to apply the current algorithm to other tasks like influence minimization and manipulation, and design scalable algorithms for continuous-time models other than the independent cascade model. Acknowledgement: Our work is supported by NSF/NIH BIGDATA 1R01GM108341-01, NSF IIS1116886, NSF IIS1218749, NSFC 61129001, a DARPA Xdata grant and Raytheon Faculty Fellowship of Gatech. 8 References ? Tardos. Maximizing the spread of influence through a [1] David Kempe, Jon Kleinberg, and Eva social network. In KDD, pages 137?146, 2003. [2] Wei Chen, Yajun Wang, and Siyu Yang. Efficient influence maximization in social networks. In KDD, pages 199?208, 2009. [3] Wei Chen, Yifei Yuan, and Li Zhang. Scalable influence maximization in social networks under the linear threshold model. In ICDM, pages 88?97, 2010. [4] Amit Goyal, Francesco Bonchi, and Laks V. S. Lakshmanan. A data-based approach to social influence maximization. Proc. VLDB Endow., 5, 2011. [5] Jure Leskovec, Andreas Krause, Carlos Guestrin, Christos Faloutsos, Jeanne M. VanBriesen, and Natalie S. Glance. Cost-effective outbreak detection in networks. In KDD, pages 420?429, 2007. [6] Matthew Richardson and Pedro Domingos. Mining knowledge-sharing sites for viral marketing. In KDD, pages 61?70, 2002. [7] Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez and Bernhard Sch?olkopf. Influence maximization in continuous time diffusion networks. In ICML ?12, 2012. [8] Nan Du, Le Song, Alexander J. Smola, and Ming Yuan. Learning networks of heterogeneous influence. In NIPS, 2012. [9] Nan Du, Le Song, Hyenkyun Woo, and Hongyuan Zha. Uncover topic-sensitive information diffusion networks. In AISTATS, 2013. [10] Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, David Balduzzi, and Bernhard Sch?olkopf. Uncovering the temporal dynamics of diffusion networks. In ICML, pages 561?568, 2011. [11] Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Jure Leskovec, and Bernhard Sch?olkopf. Structure and Dynamics of Information Pathways in On-line Media. In WSDM, 2013. [12] Ke Zhou, Le Song, and Hongyuan Zha. Learning social infectivity in sparse low-rank networks using multi-dimensional hawkes processes. In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2013. [13] Ke Zhou, Hongyuan Zha, and Le Song. Learning triggering kernels for multi-dimensional hawkes processes. In International Conference on Machine Learning(ICML), 2013. [14] Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Jure Leskovec, and Bernhard Sch?olkopf. Modeling information propagation with survival theory. In ICML, 2013. [15] Shuanghong Yang and Hongyuan Zha. Mixture of mutually exciting processes for viral diffusion. In International Conference on Machine Learning(ICML), 2013. [16] Jerald F. Lawless. Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data. Wiley-Interscience, 2002. [17] Edith Cohen. Size-estimation framework with applications to transitive closure and reachability. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 55(3):441?453, 1997. [18] GL Nemhauser, LA Wolsey, and ML Fisher. An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions. Mathematical Programming, 14(1), 1978. [19] Andreas Krause. Ph.D. Thesis. CMU, 2008. [20] Jure Leskovec, Deepayan Chakrabarti, Jon M. Kleinberg, Christos Faloutsos, and Zoubin Ghahramani. Kronecker graphs: An approach to modeling networks. JMLR, 11, 2010. [21] Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Jure Leskovec, and Andreas Krause. Inferring networks of diffusion and influence. In KDD, 2010. [22] David Easley and Jon Kleinberg. Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a Highly Connected World. Cambridge University Press, 2010. [23] Jure Leskovec, Lars Backstrom, and Jon M. Kleinberg. Meme-tracking and the dynamics of the news cycle. In KDD, 2009. [24] Praneeth Netrapalli and Sujay Sanghavi. Learning the graph of epidemic cascades. In SIGMETRICS/PERFORMANCE, pages 211?222. ACM, 2012. [25] Wei Chen, Chi Wang, and Yajun Wang. Scalable influence maximization for prevalent viral marketing in large-scale social networks. In KDD ?10, pages 1029?1038, 2010. 9
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Adaptive Anonymity via b-Matching Krzysztof Choromanski Columbia University [email protected] Tony Jebara Columbia University [email protected] Kui Tang Columbia University [email protected] Abstract The adaptive anonymity problem is formalized where each individual shares their data along with an integer value to indicate their personal level of desired privacy. This problem leads to a generalization of k-anonymity to the b-matching setting. Novel algorithms and theory are provided to implement this type of anonymity. The relaxation achieves better utility, admits theoretical privacy guarantees that are as strong, and, most importantly, accommodates a variable level of anonymity for each individual. Empirical results confirm improved utility on benchmark and social data-sets. 1 Introduction In many situations, individuals wish to share their personal data for machine learning applications and other exploration purposes. If the data contains sensitive information, it is necessary to protect it with privacy guarantees while maintaining some notion of data utility [18, 2, 24]. There are various definitions of privacy. These include k-anonymity [19], l-diversity [16], t-closeness [14] and differential1 privacy [3, 22]. All these privacy guarantees fundamentally treat each contributed datum about an individual equally. However, the acceptable anonymity and comfort-level of each individual in a population can vary widely. This article explores the adaptive anonymity setting and shows how to generalize the k-anonymity framework to handle it. Other related approaches have been previously explored [20, 21, 15, 5, 6, 23] yet herein we contribute novel efficient algorithms and formalize precise privacy guarantees. Note also that there are various definitions of utility. This article focuses on the use of suppression since it is well-formalized. Therein, we hide certain values in the data-set by replacing them with a ? symbol (fewer ? symbols indicate higher utility). The overall goal is to maximize utility while preserving each individual?s level of desired privacy. This article is organized as follows. ? 2 formalizes the adaptive anonymity problem and shows how k-anonymity does not handle it. This leads to a relaxation of k-anonymity into symmetric and asymmetric bipartite regular compatibility graphs. ? 3 provides algorithms for maximizing utility under these relaxed privacy criteria. ? 4 provides theorems to ensure the privacy of these relaxed criteria for uniform anonymity as well as for adaptive anonymity. ? 5 shows experiments on benchmark and social data-sets. Detailed proofs are provided in the Supplement. 2 Adaptive anonymity and necessary relaxations to k-anonymity The adaptive anonymity problem considers a data-set X ? Zn?d consisting of n ? N observations {x1 , . . . , xn } each of which is a d-dimensional discrete vector, in other words, xi ? Zd . Each user i contributes an observation vector xi which contains discrete attributes pertaining to that user2 . Furthermore, each user i provides an adaptive anonymity parameter ?i ? N they desire to keep when the database is released. Given such a data-set and anonymity parameters, we wish to output an obfuscated data-set denoted by Y ? {Z ? ?}n?d which consists of vectors {y1 , . . . , yn } where 1 2 Differential privacy often requires specifying the data application (e.g. logistic regression) in advance [4]. For instance, a vector can contain a user?s gender, race, height, weight, age, income bracket and so on. 1 yi (k) ? {xi (k), ?}. The star symbol ? indicates that the k?th attribute has been masked in the i?th user-record. We say that vector xi is compatible with vector yj if xi (k) = yj (k) for all elements of yj (k) $= ?. The goal of this article is to create a Y which contains a minimal number of ? symbols such that each entry yi of Y is compatible with at least ?i entries of X and vice-versa. The most pervasive method for anonymity in the released data is the k-anonymity method [19, 1]. However, it is actually more constraining than the above desiderata. If all users have the same value ?i = k, then k-anonymity suppresses data in the database such that, for each user?s data vector in the released (or anonymized) database, there are at least k ? 1 identical copies in the released database. The existence of copies is used by k-anonymity to justify some protection to attack. We will show that the idea of k ? 1 copies can be understood as forming a compatibility graph between the original database and the released database which is composed of several fully-connected k-cliques. However, rather than guaranteeing copies or cliques, the anonymity problem can be relaxed into a k-regular compatibility to achieve nearly identical resilience to attack. More interestingly, this relaxation will naturally allow users to select different ?i anonymity values or degrees in the compatibility graph and allow them to achieve their desired personal protection level. Why can?t k-anonymity handle heterogeneous anonymity levels ?i ? Consider the case where the population contains many liberal users with very low anonymity levels yet one single paranoid user (user i) wants to have a maximal anonymity with ?i = n. In the k-anonymity framework, that user will require n ? 1 identical copies of his data in the released database. Thus, a single paranoid user will destroy all the information of the database which will merely contain completely redundant vectors. We will propose a b-matching relaxation to k-anonymity which prevents this degeneracy since it does not merely handle compatibility queries by creating copies in the released data. While k-anonymity is not the only criterion for privacy, there are situations in which it is sufficient as illustrated by the following scenario. First assume the data-set X is associated with a set of identities (or usernames) and Y is associated with a set of keys. A key may be the user?s password or some secret information (such as their DNA sequence). Represent the usernames and keys using integers x1 , . . . , xn and y1 , . . . , yn , respectively. Username xi ? Z is associated with entry xi and key yj ? Z is associated with entry yj . Furthermore, assume that these usernames and keys are diverse, unique and independent of their corresponding attributes. These x and y values are known as the sensitive attributes and the entries of X and Y are the non-sensitive attributes [16]. We aim to release an obfuscated database Y and its keys with the possibility that an adversary may have access to all or a subset of X and the identities. The goal is to ensure that the success of an attack (using a username-key pair) is low. In other words, the attack succeeds with probability no larger than 1/?i for a user which specified ?i ? N. Thus, the attack we seek to protect against is the use of the data to match usernames to keys (rather than attacks in which additional non-sensitive attributes about a user are discovered). In the uniform ?i setting, k-anonymity guarantees that a single one-time attack using a single username-key pair succeeds with probability at most 1/k. In the extreme case, it is easy to see that replacing all of Y with ? symbols will result in an attack success probability of 1/n if the adversary attempts a single random attack-pair (username and key). Meanwhile, releasing a database Y = X with keys could allow the adversary to succeed with an initial attack with probability 1. We first assume that all degrees ?i are constant and set to ? and discuss how the proposed b-matching privacy output subtly differs from standard k-anonymity [19]. First, define quasi-identifiers as sets of attributes like gender and age that can be linked with external data to uniquely identify an individual in the population. The k-anonymity criterion says that a data-set such as Y is protected against linking attacks that exploit quasi-identifiers if every element is indistinguishable from at least k ? 1 other elements with respect to every set of quasi-identifier attributes. We will instead use a compatibility graph G to more precisely characterize how elements are indistinguishable in the data-sets and which entries of Y are compatible with entries in the original data-set X. The graph places edges between entries of X which are compatible with entries of Y. Clearly, G is an undirected bipartite graph containing two equal-sized partitions (or color-classes) of nodes A and B each of cardinality n where A = {a1 , . . . , an } and B = {b1 , . . . , bn }. Each element of A is associated with an entry of X and each element of B is associated with an entry of Y. An edge e = (i, j) ? G that is adjacent to a node in A and a node in B indicates that the entries xi and yj are compatible. The absence of an edge means nothing: entries are either compatible or not compatible. 2 For ?i = ?, b-matching produces ?-regular bipartite graphs G while k-anonymity produces ?-regular clique-bipartite graphs3 defined as follows. Definition 2.1 Let G(A, B) be a bipartite graph with color classes: A, B where A = {a1 , ..., an }, B = {b1 , ..., bn }. We call a k-regular bipartite graph G(A, B) a clique-bipartite graph if it is a union of pairwise disjoint and nonadjacent complete k-regular bipartite graphs. Denote by Gbn,? the family of ?-regular bipartite graphs with n nodes. Similarly, denote by Gkn,? the family of ?-regular graphs clique-bipartite graphs. We will also denote by Gsn,? the family of symmetric b-regular graphs using the following definition of symmetry. Definition 2.2 Let G(A, B) be a bipartite graph with color classes: A, B where A = {a1 , ..., an }, B = {b1 , ..., bn }. We say that G(A, B) is symmetric if the existence of an edge (ai , bj ) in G(A, B) implies the existence of an edge (aj , bi ), where 1 ? i, j ? n. For values of n that are not trivially small, it is easy to see that the graph families satisfy Gkn,? ? Gsn,? ? Gbn,? . This holds since symmetric ?-regular graphs are ?-regular with the additional symmetry constraint. Clique-bipartite graphs are ?-regular graphs constrained to be clique-bipartite and the latter property automatically yields symmetry. This article introduces graph families Gbn,? and Gsn,? to enforce privacy since these are relaxations of the family Gkn,b as previously explored in k-anonymity research. These relaxations will achieve better utility in the released database. Furthermore, they will allow us to permit adaptive anonymity levels across the users in the database. We will drop the superscripts n and ? whenever the meaning is clear from the context. Additional properties of these graph families will be formalized in ? 4 but we first informally illustrate how they are useful in achieving data privacy. username alice bob carol dave eve fred key 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 * * * * * * 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 * * 0 0 1 1 * * ggacta tacaga ctagag tatgaa caacgc tgttga Figure 1: Traditional k-anonymity (in Gk ) for n = 6, d = 4, ? = 2 achieves #(?) = 10. Left to right: usernames with data (x, X), compatibility graph (G) and anonymized data with keys (Y, y). username alice bob carol dave eve fred key 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 * * * * 1 0 0 * 0 * * * 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 ggacta tacaga ctagag tatgaa caacgc tgttga Figure 2: The b-matching anonymity (in Gb ) for n = 6, d = 4, ? = 2 achieves #(?) = 8. Left to right: usernames with data (x, X), compatibility graph (G) and anonymized data with keys (Y, y). In figure 1, we see an example of k-anonymity with a graph from Gk . Here each entry of the anonymized data-set Y appears k = 2 times (or ? = 2). The compatibility graph shows 3 fully connected cliques since each of the k copies in Y has identical entries. By brute force exploration 3 Traditional k-anonymity releases an obfuscated database of n rows where there are k copies of each row. So, each copy has the same neighborhood. Similarly, the entries of the original database all have to be connected to the same k copies in the obfuscated database. This induces a so-called bipartite clique-connectivity. 3 we find that the minimum number of stars to achieve this type of anonymity is #(?) = 10. Moreover, since this problem is NP-hard [17], efficient algorithms rarely achieve this best-possible utility (minimal number of stars). Next, consider figure 2 where we have achieved superior utility by only introducing #(?) = 8 stars to form Y. The compatibility graph is at least ? = 2-regular. It was possible to find a smaller number of stars since ?-regular bipartite graphs are a relaxation of k-clique graphs as shown in figure 1. Another possibility (not shown in the figures) is a symmetric version of figure 2 where nodes on the left hand side and nodes on the right hand side have a symmetric connectivity. Such an intermediate solution (since Gk ? Gs ? Gb ) should potentially achieve #(?) between 8 and 10. It is easy to see why all graphs have to have a minimum degree of ? at least (i.e. must contain a ?-regular graph). If one of the nodes has a degree of 1, then the adversary will know the key (or the username) for that node with certainty. If each node has degree ? or larger, then the adversary will have probability at most 1/? of choosing the correct key (or username) for any random victim. We next describe algorithms which accept X and integers ?1 , . . . , ?n and output Y such that each entry i in Y is compatible with at least ?i entries in X and vice-versa. These algorithms operate by finding a graph in Gb or Gs and achieve similar protection as k-anonymity (which finds a graph in the most restrictive family Gk and therefore requires more stars). We provide a theoretical analysis of the topology of G in these two new families to show resilience to single and sustained attacks from an all-powerful adversary. 3 Approximation algorithms While the k-anonymity suppression problem is known to be NP-hard, a polynomial time method with an approximation guarantee is the forest algorithm [1] which has an approximation ratio of 3k? 3. In practice, though, the forest algorithm is slow and achieves poor utility compared to clustering methods [10]. We provide an algorithm for the b-matching anonymity problem with approximation ? ratio of ? and runtime of O(?m n) where n is the number of users in the data, ? is the largest anonymity level in {?1 , . . . , ?n } and m is the number of edges to explore (in the worst case with no prior knowledge, we have m = O(n2 ) edges between all possible users). One algorithm solves for minimum weight bipartite b-matchings which is easy to implement using linear programming, max-flow methods or belief propagation in the bipartite case [9, 11]. The other algorithm uses a general non-bipartite solver which involves Blossom structures and requires O(?mn log(n)) time[8, 9, 13]. Fortunately, minimum weight general matching has recently been shown to require only O(m"?1 log "?1 ) time to achieve a (1 ? ") approximation [7]. First, we define two quantities of interest. Given a graph matrix G ? Bn?n and a ! ! G !with adjacency data-set X, the Hamming error is defined as h(G) = i j Gij k (Xik $= Xjk ). The number of ! ! " stars to achieve G is s(G) = nd ? i k j (1 ? Gij (Xik $= Xjk )) . Recall Gb is the family of regular bipartite graphs. Let minG?Gb s(G) be the minimum number of stars (or suppressions) that one can place in Y while keeping the entries in Y compatible with at least ? entries in X and vice-versa. We propose the following polynomial time algorithm which, in its first iteration, minimizes h(G) over the family Gb and then iteratively minimizes a variational upper bound [12] on s(G) using a weighted version of the Hamming distance. Algorithm 1 variational bipartite b-matching Input X ? Zn?d , ?i ? N for i ? {1, . . . , n}, ? > 0 and initialize W ? Rn?d to the all 1s matrix While not converged { ? = arg minG?Bn?n ! Gij ! Wik (Xik $= Xjk ) s.t. ! Gij = ! Gji ? ?i Set G ij # k j j $ ! ? For all i and k set Wik = exp Gij (Xik $= Xjk ) ln ? } j 1+? ? ij = 1 and Xjk $= Xik for any j For all i and k set Yik = ? if G Choose random permutation M as matrix M ? Bn?n and output Ypublic = MY We can further restrict the b-matching solver such that the graph G is symmetric with respect to both the original data X and the obfuscated data Y. To do so, we require that G is a symmetric matrix. ? is recovered by a general This will produce a graph G ? Gs . In such a situation, the value of G 4 unipartite b-matching algorithm rather than a bipartite b-matching program. Thus, the set of possible output solutions is strictly smaller (the bipartite formulation relaxes the symmetric one). Algorithm 2 variational symmetric b-matching Input X ? Zn?d , ?i ? N for i ? {1, . . . , n}, ? > 0 and initialize W ? Rn?d to the all 1s matrix While not converged { ? = arg minG?Bn?n ! Gij ! Wik (Xik $= Xjk ) s.t. ! Gij ? ?i , Gij = Gji Set G k j ij # $ ! ? For all i and k set Wik = exp Gij (Xik $= Xjk ) ln ? } j 1+? ? ij = 1 and Xjk $= Xik for any j For all i and k set Yik = ? if G Choose random permutation M as matrix M ? Bn?n and output Ypublic = MY ? such that s(G) ? ? ? minG?G s(G). Theorem 1 For ?i ? ?, iteration #1 of algorithm 1 finds G b ? Theorem 2 Each iteration of algorithm 1 monotonically decreases s(G). Theorem 1 and 2 apply to both algorithms. Both algorithms4 manipulate a bipartite regular graph G(A, B) containing the true matching {(a1 , b1 ), . . . , (an , bn )}. However, they ultimately release the data-set Ypublic after randomly shuffling Y according to some matching or permutation M which hides the true matching. The random permutation or matching M can be represented as a matrix M ? Bn?n or as a function ? : {1, . . . , n} ? {1, . . . , n}. We now discuss how an adversary can attack privacy by recovering this matching or parts of it. 4 Privacy guarantees We now characterize the anonymity provided by a compatibility graph G ? Gb (or G ? Gs ) under several attack models. The goal of the adversary is to correctly match people to as many records as possible. In other words, the adversary wishes to find the random matching M used in the algorithms (or parts of M ) to connect the entries of X to the entries of Ypublic (assuming the adversary has stolen X and Ypublic or portions of them). More precisely, we have a bipartite graph G(A, B) with color classes A, B, each of size n. Class A corresponds to n usernames and class B to n keys. Each username in A is matched to its key in B through some unknown matching M . We consider the model where the graph G(A, B) is ?-regular, where ? ? N is a parameter chosen by the publisher. The latter is especially important if we are interested in guaranteeing different levels of privacy for different users and allowing ? to vary with the user?s index i. Sometimes it is the case that the adversary has some additional information and at the very beginning knows some complete records that belong to some people. In graph-theoretic terms, the adversary thus knows parts of the hidden matching M in advance. Alternatively, the adversary may have come across such additional information through sustained attack where previous attempts revealed the presence or absence of an edge. We are interested in analyzing how this extra knowledge can help him further reveal other edges of the matching. We aim to show that, for some range of the parameters of the bipartite graphs, this additional knowledge does not help him much. We will compare the resilience to attack relative to the resilience of k-anonymity. We say that a person v is k-anonymous if his or her real data record can be confused with at least k ? 1 records from different people. We first discuss the case of single attacks and then discuss sustained attacks. 4.1 One-Time Attack Guarantees Assume first that the adversary has no extra information about the matching and performs a one-time attack. Then, lemma 4.1 holds which is a direct implication of lemma 4.2. Lemma 4.1 If G(A, B) is an arbitrary ?-regular graph and the adversary does not know any edges of the matching he is looking for then every person is ?-anonymous. 4 It is straightforward to put a different weight on certain suppressions over others if the utility of the data is not uniform for each entry or bit. This done by using an n ? d weight matrix in the optimization. It is also straightforward to handle missing data by allowing initial stars in X before anonymizing. 5 Lemma 4.2 Let G(A, B) be a ?-regular bipartite graph. Then for every edge e of G(A, B) there exists a perfect matching in G(A, B) that uses e. The result does not assume any structure in the graph beyond its ?-regularity. Thus, for a single attack, b-matching anonymity (symmetric or asymmetric) is equivalent to k-anonymity when b = k. Corollary 4.1 Assume the bipartite graph G(A, B) is either ?-regular, symmetric ?-regular or clique-bipartite and ?-regular. An adversary attacking G once succeeds with probability ? 1/?. 4.2 Sustained Attack on k-Cliques Now consider the situation of sustained attacks or attacks with prior information. Here, the adversary may know c ? N edges in M a priori by whatever means (previous attacks or through side information). We begin by analyzing the resilience of k-anonymity where G is a cliques-structured graph. In the clique-bipartite graph, even if the adversary knows some edges of the matching (but not too many) then there still is hope of good anonymity for all people. The anonymity of every person decreases from ? to at least (? ? c). So, for example, if the adversary knows in advance ?2 edges of the matching then we get the same type of anonymity for every person as for the model with two times smaller degree in which the adversary has no extra knowledge. So we will be able to show the following: Lemma 4.3 If G(A, B) is clique-bipartite ?-regular graph and the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching then every person is (? ? c)-anonymous. The above is simply a consequence of the following lemma. Lemma 4.4 Assume that G(A, B) is clique-bipartite ?-regular graph. Denote by M some perfect matching in G(A, B). Let C be some subset of the edges of M and let c = |C|. Fix some vertex v ? A not matched in C. Then there are at least (? ? c) edges adjacent to v such that, for each of these edges e, there exists some perfect matching M e in G(A, B) that uses both e and C. Corollary 4.2 Assume graph G(A, B) is a clique-bipartite and ?-regular. Assume that the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching. The adversary selects uniformly at random a vertex the privacy of which he wants to break from the set of vertices he does not know in advance. Then 1 he succeeds with probability at most ??c . We next show that b-matchings achieve comparable resilience under sustained attack. 4.3 Sustained attack on asymmetric bipartite b-matching We now consider the case where we do not have a graph G(A, B) which is clique-bipartite but rather is only ?-regular and potentially asymmetric (as returned by algorithm 1). Theorem 4.1 Let G(A,B) be a ?-regular bipartite graph with color classes: A and B. Assume that |A| = |B| = n. Denote by M some perfect matching M in G(A, B). Let C be some $ subset of the edges of M and let c = |C|. % Take some ? ? c. Denote n = n ? c. Fix any function ? : N ? R satisfying ?? (? ?(?)+ ? = ? 2? + 1 4 < ?(?) < ?). Then for all but at most ?2 (?)?2? 2 ? 2c? 2 n" ?(1+ ) 2?? r ?(1? c ) 2? ? 1 c + ) )( ?3 (?)(1+ 1? ?2? ? 2 (?) ? ?(?) ?(?) + c? ?(?) vertices v ? A not matched in C the following holds: The size of the set of edges e adjacent to v and having the additional property that there exists some perfect matching M v in G(A, B) that uses e and edges from C is: at least (? ? c ? ?(?)). Essentially, theorem 4.1 says that all % but at most a small number ? of people are (? ? c ? ?(?))anonymous for every ? satisfying: c 2? + 41 < ?(?) < ? if the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching. For example, take ?(?) := ?? for ? ? (0, 1). Fix ? = c and assume that 1 the adversary knows in advance at most ? 4 edges of the matching. Then, using the formula from 6 theorem 4.1, we obtain that (for n large enough) all but at most 1 4 4n" ? 1 4 ?3 1 + ?4 ? people from those that the adversary does not know in advance are ((1 ? ?)? ? ? )-anonymous. So if ? is large enough then all but approximately a small fraction 14 3 of all people not known in advance are almost (1 ? ?)?-anonymous. ?4? Again take ?(?) := ?? where ? ? (0, 1). Take ? = 2c. Next assume that 1 ? c ? min( ?4 , ?(1 ? ? ? ?2 )). Assume that the adversary selects uniformly at random a person to attack. Our goal is to find an upper bound on the probability he succeeds. Then, using theorem 4.1, we can conclude that all but at most F n$ people whose records are not known in advance are ((1 ? ?)? ? c)-anonymous 2 1 for F = 33c ? 2 ? . The probability of success is at most: F + (1 ? F ) (1??)??c . Using the expression on F that we have and our assumptions, we can conclude that the probability we are looking for is 2 at most 34c ? 2 ? . Therefore we have: Theorem 4.2 Assume graph G(A, B) is ?-regular and the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching, where c satisfies: 1 ? c ? min( ?4 , ?(1 ? ? ? ?2 )). The adversary selects uniformly at random a vertex the privacy of which he wants to break from those that he does not know in advance. 2 Then he succeeds with probability at most 34c ?2? . 4.4 Sustained attack on symmetric b-matching with adaptive anonymity We now consider the case where the graph is not only ?-regular but also symmetric as defined in definition 2.2 and as recovered by algorithm 2. Furthermore, we consider the case where we have varying values of ?i for each node since some users want higher privacy than others. It turns out that if the corresponding bipartite graph is symmetric (we define this term below) we can conclude that each user is (?i ? c)-anonymous, where ?i is the degree of a vertex associated with the user of the bipartite matching graph. So we get results completely analogous to those for the much simpler models described before. We will use a slightly more elaborate definition of symmetric5, however, since this graph has one if its partitions permuted by a random matching (the last step in both algorithms before releasing the data). Definition 4.1 Let G(A, B) be a bipartite graph with color classes: A, B and matching M = {(a1 , b1 ), ...(an , bn )}, where A = {a1 , ..., an }, B = {b1 , ..., bn }. We say that G(A, B) is symmetric with respect to M if the existence of an edge (ai , bj ) in G(A, B) implies the existence of an edge (aj , bi ), where 1 ? i, j ? n. From now on, the matching M with respect to which G(A, B) is symmetric is a canonical matching of G(A, B). Assume that G(A, B) is symmetric with respect to its canonical matching M (it does not need to be a clique-bipartite graph). In such a case, we will prove that, if the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching, then every person from the class A of degree ?i is (?i ? c)anonymous. So we obtain the same type of anonymity as in a clique-bipartite graph (see: lemma 4.3). Lemma 4.5 Assume that G(A, B) is a bipartite graph, symmetric with respect to its canonical matching M . Assume furthermore that the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching. Then every person that he does not know in advance is (?i ? c)-anonymous, where ?i is a degree of the related vertex of the bipartite graph. As a corollary, we obtain the same privacy guarantees in the symmetric case as the k-cliques case. Corollary 4.3 Assume bipartite graph G(A, B) is symmetric with respect to its canonical matchings M . Assume that the adversary knows in advance c edges of the matching. The adversary selects uniformly at random a vertex the privacy of which he wants to break from the set of vertices he does not know in advance. Then he succeeds with probability at most ?i1?c , where ?i is a degree of a vertex of the matching graph associated with the user. 5 A symmetric graph G(A, B) may not remain symmetric according to definition 2.2 if nodes in B are shuffled by a permutation M . However, it will still be symmetric with respect to M according to definition 4.1. 7 In summary, the symmetric case is as resilient to sustained attack as the cliques-bipartite case, the usual one underlying k-anonymity if we set ?i = ? = k everywhere. The adversary succeeds with probability at most 1/(?i ?c). However, the asymmetric case is potentially weaker and the adversary 2 can succeed with probability at most 34c ? 2 ? . Interestingly, in the symmetric case with variable ?i degrees, however, we can provide guarantees that are just as good without forcing all individuals to agree on a common level of anonymity. 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.95 0.9 0.9 0.6 utility 0.7 utility utility utility 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0 5 10 anonymity 15 0.2 0 20 5 10 anonymity 15 0.2 0 20 1 1 1 0.95 0.8 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 5 10 anonymity 15 20 0 0 5 10 anonymity 0.8 0.75 15 0.7 5 20 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 10 15 20 anonymity 25 30 25 30 0.95 0.9 0.4 0.2 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 0.8 0.6 utility utility 0.9 utility 0.4 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity utility 0.5 0.4 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 0.85 0.7 0.85 0.6 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 5 10 anonymity 0.5 15 20 0.4 0 (a) 0.8 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 5 10 anonymity 15 20 0.75 5 b?matching b?symmetric k?anonymity 10 15 20 anonymity (b) Figure 3: Utility (1 ? #(?) nd ) versus anonymity on (a) Bupa (n = 344, d = 7), Wine (n = 178, d = 14), Heart (n = 186, d = 23), Ecoli (n = 336, d = 8), and Hepatitis (n = 154, d = 20) and Forest Fires (n = 517, d = 44) data-sets and (b) CalTech University Facebook (n = 768, d = 101) and Reed University Facebook (n = 962, d = 101) data-sets. 5 Experiments We compared algorithms 1 and 2 against an agglomerative clustering competitor (optimized to minimize stars) which is known to outperform the forest method [10]. Agglomerative clustering starts with singleton clusters and keeps unifying the two closest clusters with smallest increase in stars until clusters grow to a size at least k. Both algorithms release data with suppressions to achieve a desired constant anonymity level ?. For our algorithms, we swept values of ? in {2?1 , 2?2 , . . . , 2?10 } from largest to smallest and chose the solution that produced the least number of stars. Furthermore, we warm-started the symmetric algorithm with the star-pattern solution of the asymmetric algorithm to make it converge more quickly. We first explored six standard data-sets from UCI http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/ in the uniform anonymity setting. Figure 3(a) summarizes the results where utility is plotted against ?. Fewer stars imply greater utility and larger ? implies higher anonymity. We discretized each numerical dimension in a data-set into a binary attribute by finding all elements above and below the median and mapped categorical values in the data-sets into a binary code (potentially increasing the dimensionality). Algorithms 1 achieved significantly better utility for any given fixed constant anonymity level ? while algorithm 2 achieved a slight improvement. We next explored Facebook social data experiments where each user has a different level of desired anonymity and has 7 discrete profile attributes which were binarized into d = 101 dimensions. We used the number of friends fi a user has to compute their desired anonymity level (which decreases as the number of friends increases). We set F = maxi=1,...n -log fi . and, for each value of ? in the plot, we set user i?s privacy level to ?i = ? ? (F ? -log fi .). Figure 3(b) summarizes the results where utility is plotted against ?. Since the k-anonymity agglomerative clustering method requires a constant ? for all users, we set k = maxi ?i in order to have a privacy guarantee. Algorithms 1 and 2 consistently achieved significantly better utility in the adaptive anonymity setting while also achieving the desired level of privacy protection. 6 Discussion We described the adaptive anonymity problem where data is obfuscated to respect each individual user?s privacy settings. We proposed a relaxation of k-anonymity which is straightforward to implement algorithmically. It yields similar privacy protection while offering greater utility and the ability to handle heterogeneous anonymity levels for each user. 8 References [1] G. Aggarwal, T. Feder, K. Kenthapadi, R. Motwani, R. Panigrahy, D. Thomas, and A. Zhu. Approximation algorithms for k-anonymity. Journal of Privacy Technology, 2005. [2] M. Allman and V. Paxson. Issues and etiquette concerning use of shared measurement data. In Proceedings of the 7th ACM SIGCOMM conference on Internet measurement, 2007. [3] M. Bugliesi, B. Preneel, V. Sassone, I Wegener, and C. Dwork. Lecture Notes in Computer Science - Automata, Languages and Programming, chapter Differential Privacy. Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2006. [4] K. Chaudhuri, C. Monteleone, and A.D. Sarwate. Differentially private empirical risk minimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, (12):1069?1109, 2011. [5] G. Cormode, D. Srivastava, S. Bhagat, and B. Krishnamurthy. Class-based graph anonymization for social network data. In PVLDB, volume 2, pages 766?777, 2009. [6] G. Cormode, D. Srivastava, T. Yu, and Q. Zhang. Anonymizing bipartite graph data using safe groupings. VLDB J., 19(1):115?139, 2010. [7] R. Duan and S. Pettie. Approximating maximum weight matching in near-linear time. In Proceedings 51st Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, 2010. [8] J. Edmonds. Paths, trees and flowers. Canadian Journal of Mathematics, 17, 1965. [9] H.N. Gabow. An efficient reduction technique for degree-constrained subgraph and bidirected network flow problems. In Proceedings of the fifteenth annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing, 1983. [10] A. Gionis, A. Mazza, and T. Tassa. k-anonymization revisited. In ICDE, 2008. [11] B. Huang and T. Jebara. Fast b-matching via sufficient selection belief propagation. In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2011. [12] M.I. Jordan, Z. Ghahramani, T. Jaakkola, and L.K. Saul. An introduction to variational methods for graphical models. Machine Learning, 37(2):183?233, 1999. [13] V.N. Kolmogorov. Blossom V: A new implementation of a minimum cost perfect matching algorithm. Mathematical Programming Computation, 1(1):43?67, 2009. [14] N. Li, T. Li, and S. Venkatasubramanian. t-closeness: Privacy beyond k-anonymity and ldiversity. In ICDE, 2007. [15] S. Lodha and D. Thomas. Probabilistic anonymity. In PinKDD, 2007. [16] A. Machanavajjhala, D. Kifer, J. Gehrke, and M. Venkitasubramaniam. L-diversity: Privacy beyond k-anonymity. ACM Transactions on Knowledge Discovery from Data (TKDD), 1, 2007. [17] A. Meyerson and R. Williams. On the complexity of optimal k-anonymity. In PODS, 2004. [18] P. Samarati and L. Sweeney. Generalizing data to provide anonymity when disclosing information. In PODS, 1998. [19] L. Sweeney. Achieving k-anonymity privacy protection using generalization and suppression. International Journal on Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-based Systems, 10(5):571? 588, 2002. [20] Y. Tao and X. Xiao. Personalized privacy preservation. In SIGMOD Conference, 2006. [21] Y. Tao and X. Xiao. Personalized privacy preservation. In Privacy-Preserving Data Mining, 2008. [22] O. Williams and F. McSherry. Probabilistic inference and differential privacy. In NIPS, 2010. [23] M. Xue, P. Karras, C. Rassi, J. Vaidya, and K.-L. Tan. Anonymizing set-valued data by nonreciprocal recoding. In KDD, 2012. [24] E. Zheleva and L. Getoor. Preserving the privacy of sensitive relationships in graph data. In KDD, 2007. 9
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Exact and Stable Recovery of Pairwise Interaction Tensors Shouyuan Chen Michael R. Lyu Irwin King The Chinese University of Hong Kong {sychen,lyu,king}@cse.cuhk.edu.hk Zenglin Xu Purdue University [email protected] Abstract Tensor completion from incomplete observations is a problem of significant practical interest. However, it is unlikely that there exists an efficient algorithm with provable guarantee to recover a general tensor from a limited number of observations. In this paper, we study the recovery algorithm for pairwise interaction tensors, which has recently gained considerable attention for modeling multiple attribute data due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Specifically, in the absence of noise, we show that one can exactly recover a pairwise interaction tensor by solving a constrained convex program which minimizes the weighted sum of nuclear norms of matrices from O(nr log2 (n)) observations. For the noisy cases, we also prove error bounds for a constrained convex program for recovering the tensors. Our experiments on the synthetic dataset demonstrate that the recovery performance of our algorithm agrees well with the theory. In addition, we apply our algorithm on a temporal collaborative filtering task and obtain state-of-the-art results. 1 Introduction Many tasks of recommender systems can be formulated as recovering an unknown tensor (multiway array) from a few observations of its entries [17, 26, 25, 21]. Recently, convex optimization algorithms for recovering a matrix, which is a special case of tensor, have been extensively studied [7, 22, 6]. Moreover, there are several theoretical developments that guarantee exact recovery of most low-rank matrices from partial observations using nuclear norm minimization [8, 5]. These results seem to suggest a promising direction to solve the general problem of tensor recovery. However, there are inevitable obstacles to generalize the techniques for matrix completion to tensor recovery, since a number of fundamental computational problems of matrix is NP-hard in their tensorial analogues [10]. For instance, H?astad showed that it is NP-hard to compute the rank of a given tensor [9]; Hillar and Lim proved the NP-hardness to decompose a given tensor into sum of rank-one tensors even if a tensor is fully observed [10]. The existing evidence suggests that it is very unlikely that there exists an efficient exact recovery algorithm for general tensors with missing entries. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether it is possible to identify a useful class of tensors for which we can devise an exact recovery algorithm. In this paper, we focus on pairwise interaction tensors, which have recently demonstrated strong performance in several recommendation applications, e.g. tag recommendation [19] and sequential data analysis [18]. Pairwise interaction tensors are a special class of general tensors, which directly model the pairwise interactions between different attributes. Take movie recommendation as an example, to model a user?s ratings for movies varying over time, a pairwise interaction tensor assumes that each rating is determined by three factors: the user?s inherent preference on the movie, the movie?s trending popularity and the user?s varying mood over time. Formally, pairwise interaction tensor assumes that each entry Tijk of a tensor T of size n1 ? n2 ? n3 is given by following E D E D E D (a) (a) (b) (b) (c) (c) Tijk = ui , vj + uj , vk + uk , vi , for all (i, j, k) ? [n1 ] ? [n2 ] ? [n3 ], (1) 1 (a) (a) (b) (b) where {ui }i?[n1 ] , {vi }j?[n2 ] are r1 dimensional vectors, {uj }j?[n2 ] , {vk }k?[n3 ] are r2 di(c) (c) mensional vectors and {uk }k?[n3 ] , {vi }i?[n1 ] are r3 dimensional vectors, respectively. 1 The existing recovery algorithms for pairwise interaction tensor use local optimization methods, which do not guarantee the recovery performance [18, 19]. In this paper, we design efficient recovery algorithms for pairwise interaction tensors with rigorous guarantee. More specifically, in the absence of noise, we show that one can exactly recover a pairwise interaction tensor by solving a constrained convex program which minimizes the weighted sum of nuclear norms of matrices from O(nr log2 (n)) observations, where n = max{n1 , n2 , n3 } and r = max{r1 , r2 , r3 }. For noisy cases, we also prove error bounds for a constrained convex program for recovering the tensors. In the proof of our main results, we reformulated the recovery problem as a constrained matrix completion problem with a special observation operator. Previously, Gross et al. [8] have showed that the nuclear norm heuristic can exactly recover low rank matrix from a sufficient number of observations of an orthogonal observation operator. We note that the orthogonality is critical to their argument. However, the observation operator, in our case, turns out to be non-orthogonal, which becomes a major challenge in our proof. In order to deal with the non-orthogonal operator, we have substantially extended their technique in our proof. We believe that our technique can be generalized to handle other matrix completion problem with non-orthogonal observation operators. Moreover, we extend existing singular value thresholding method to develop a simple and scalable algorithm for solving the recovery problem in both exact and noisy cases. Our experiments on the synthetic dataset demonstrate that the recovery performance of our algorithm agrees well with the theory. Finally, we apply our algorithm on a temporal collaborative filtering task and obtain stateof-the-art results. 2 Recovering pairwise interaction tensors In this section, we first introduce the matrix formulation of pairwise interaction tensors and specify the recovery problem. Then we discuss the sufficient conditions on pairwise interaction tensors for which an exact recovery would be possible. After that we formulate the convex program for solving the recovery problem and present our theoretical results on the sample bounds for achieving an exact recovery. In addition, we also show a quadratically constrained convex program is stable for the recovery from noisy observations. A matrix formulation of pairwise interaction tensors. The original formulation of pairwise interaction tensors by Rendle et al. [19] is given by Eq. (1), in which each entry of a tensor is the sum of inner products of feature vectors. We can reformulate Eq. (1) more concisely using matrix notations. In particular, we can rewrite Eq. (1) as follows Tijk = Aij + Bjk + Cki , for all (i, j, k) ? [n1 ] ? [n2 ] ? [n3 ], (2) D E D E D E (a) (a) (b) (b) (c) (c) where we set Aij = ui , vj , Bjk = uj , vk , and Cki = uk , vi for all (i, j, k). Clearly, matrices A, B and C are rank r1 , r2 and r3 matrices, respectively. We call tensor T ? Rn1 ?n2 ?n3 a pairwise interaction tensor, which is denoted as T = Pair(A, B, C), if T obeys Eq. (2). We note that this concise definition is equivalent to the original one. In the rest of this paper, we will exclusively use the matrix formulation of pairwise interaction tensors. Recovery problem. Suppose we have partial observations of a pairwise interaction tensor T = Pair(A, B, C). We write ? ? [n1 ] ? [n2 ] ? [n3 ] to be the set of indices of m observed entries. In this work, we shall assume ? is sampled uniformly from the collection of all sets of size m. Our goal is to recover matrices A, B, C and therefore the entire tensor T from exact or noisy observations of {Tijk }(ijk)?? . Before we proceed to the recovery algorithm, we first discuss when the recovery is possible. Recoverability: uniqueness. The original recovery problem for pairwise interaction tensors is illposed due to a uniqueness issue. In fact, for any pairwise interaction tensor T = Pair(A, B, C), 1 For simplicity, we only consider three-way tensors in this paper. 2 we can construct infinitely manly different sets of matrices A0 , B0 , C0 such that Pair(A, B, C) = Pair(A0 , B0 , C0 ). For example, we have Tijk = Aij + Bjk + Cki = (Aij + ?ai ) + Bjk + (Cki + (1 ? ?)ai ), where ? 6= 0 can be any non-zero constant and a is an arbitrary non-zero vector of 0 size n1 . Now, we can construct A0 , B0 and C0 by setting A0ij = Aij + ?ai , Bjk = Bjk and 0 0 0 0 Cki = Cki + (1 ? ?)ai . It is clear that T = Pair(A , B , C ). This ambiguity prevents us to recover A, B, C even if T is fully observed, since it is entirely possible to recover A0 , B0 , C0 instead of A, B, C based on the observations. In order to avoid this obstacle, we construct a set of constraints such that, given any pairwise interaction tensor Pair(A, B, C), there exists unique matrices A0 , B0 , C0 satisfying the constraints and obeys Pair(A, B, C) = Pair(A0 , B0 , C0 ). Formally, we prove the following proposition. Proposition 1. For any pairwise interaction tensor T = Pair(A, B, C), there exists unique A0 ? SA , B0 ? SB , C0 ? SC such that Pair(A, B, C) = Pair(A0 , B0 , C0 ) where we define SB = {M ? n2 ?n3 T R : 1 M = 0T },SC = {M ? Rn3 ?n1 : 1T M = 0T } and SA = {M ? Rn1 ?n2 : 1T M =  1 T T n2 1 M1 1 }. We point out that there is a natural connection between the uniqueness issue and the ?bias? components, which is a quantity of much attention in the field of recommender system [13]. Due to lack of space, we defer the detailed discussion on this connection and the proof of Proposition 1 to the supplementary material. Recoverability: incoherence. It is easy to see that recovering a pairwise tensor T = Pair(A, 0, 0) is equivalent to recover the matrix A from a subset of its entries. Therefore, the recovery problem of pairwise interaction tensors subsumes matrix completion problem as a special case. Previous studies have confirmed that the incoherence condition is an essential requirement on the matrix in order to guarantee a successful recovery of matrices. This condition can be stated as follows. Let M = U?VT be the singular value decomposition of a rank r matrix M. We call matrix M is (?0 , ?1 )-incoherent if M satisfies: P P 2 2 A0. For all i ? [n1 ] and j ? [n2 ], we have nr1 k?[r] Uik ? ?0 and nr2 k?[r] Vjk ? ?0 . p A1. The maximum entry of UVT is bounded by ?1 r/(n1 n2 ) in absolute value. It is well known the recovery is possible only if the matrix is (?0 , ?1 )-incoherent for bounded ?0 , ?1 (i.e, ?0 , ?1 is poly-logarithmic with respect to n). Since the matrix completion problem is reducible to the recovery problem for pairwise interaction tensors, our theoretical result will inherit the incoherence assumptions on matrices A, B, C. Exact recovery in the absence of noise. We first consider the scenario where the observations are exact. Specifically, suppose we are given m observations {Tijk }(ijk)?? , where ? is sampled from uniformly at random from [n1 ] ? [n2 ] ? [n3 ]. We propose to recover matrices A, B, C and therefore tensor T = Pair(A, B, C) using the following convex program, ? ? ? n3 kXk? + n1 kYk? + n2 kZk? (3) minimize X?SA ,Y?SB ,Z?SC subject to Xij + Yjk + Zki = Tijk , (i, j, k) ? ?, where kMk? denotes the nuclear norm of matrix M, which is the sum of singular values of M, and SA , SB , SC is defined in Proposition 1. We show that, under the incoherence conditions, the above nuclear norm minimization method successful recovers a pairwise interaction tensor T when the number of observations m is O(nr log2 n) with high probability. Theorem 1. Let T ? Rn1 ?n2 ?n3 be a pairwise interaction tensor T = Pair(A, B, C) and A ? SA , B ? SB , C ? SC as defined in Proposition 1. Without loss of generality assume that 9 ? n1 ? n2 ? n3 . Suppose we observed m entries of T with the locations sampled uniformly at random from [n1 ] ? [n2 ] ? [n3 ] and also suppose that each of A, B, C is (?0 , ?1 )-incoherent. Then, there exists a universal constant C, such that if m > C max{?21 , ?0 }n3 r? log2 (6n3 ), where r = max{rank(A), rank(B), rank(C)} and ? > 2 is a parameter, the minimizing solution X, Y, Z for program Eq. (3) is unique and satisfies X = A, Y = B, Z = C with probability at least 1 ? log(6n3 )6n2?? ? 3n2?? . 3 3 3 Stable recovery in the presence of noise. Now, we move to the case where the observations are perturbed by noise with bounded energy. In particular, our noisy model assumes that we observe T?ijk = Tijk + ?ijk , for all (i, j, k) ? ?, (4) where ?ijk is a noise term, which maybe deterministic or stochastic. We assume ? has bounded energy on ? and specifically that kP? (?)kF ? 1 for some 1 > 0, where P? (?) denotes the restriction on ?. Under this assumption on the observations, we derive the error bound of the following quadratically-constrained convex program, which recover T from the noisy observations. ? ? ? minimize n3 kXk? + n1 kYk? + n2 kZk? (5) X?SA ,Y?SB ,Z?SC subject to P? (Pair(X, Y, Z)) ? P? (T? ) ? 2 . F Theorem 2. Let T = Pair(A, B, C) and A ? SA , B ? SB , C ? SC . Let ? be the set of observations as described in Theorem 1. Suppose we observe T?ijk for (i, j, k) ? ? as defined in Eq. (4) and also assume that kP? (?)kF ? 1 holds. Denote the reconstruction error of the optimal solution X, Y, Z of convex program Eq. (5) as E = Pair(X, Y, Z) ? T . Also assume that 1 ? 2 . Then, we have s 2rn1 n22 kEk? ? 5 (1 + 2 ), 8? log(n1 ) with probability at least 1 ? log(6n3 )6n2?? ? 3n2?? . 3 3 The proof of Theorem 1 and Theorem 2 is available in the supplementary material. Related work. Rendle et al. [19] proposed pairwise interaction tensors as a model used for tag recommendation. In a subsequent work, Rendle et al. [18] applied pairwise interaction tensors in the sequential analysis of purchase data. In both applications, their methods using pairwise interaction tensor demonstrated excellent performance. However, their algorithms are prone to local optimal issues and the recovered tensor might be very different from its true value. In contrast, our main results, Theorem 1 and Theorem 2, guarantee that a convex program can exactly or accurately recover the pairwise interaction tensors from O(nr log2 (n)) observations. In this sense, our work can be considered as a more effective way to recover pairwise interaction tensors from partial observations. In practice, various tensor factorization methods are used for estimating missing entries of tensors [12, 20, 1, 26, 16]. In addition, inspired by the success of nuclear norm minimization heuristics in matrix completion, several work used a generalized nuclear norm for tensor recovery [23, 24, 15]. However, these work do not guarantee exact recovery of tensors from partial observations. 3 Scalable optimization algorithm There are several possible methods to solving the optimization problems Eq. (3) and Eq. (5). For small problem sizes, one may reformulate the optimization problems as semi-definite programs and solve them using interior point method. The state-of-the-art interior point solvers offer excellent accuracy for finding the optimal solution. However, these solvers become prohibitively slow for pairwise interaction tensors larger than 100 ? 100 ? 100. In order to apply the recover algorithms on large scale pairwise interaction tensors, we use singular value thresholding (SVT) algorithm proposed recently by Cai et al. [3], which is a first-order method with promising performance for solving nuclear norm minimization problems. We first discuss the SVT algorithm for solving the exact completion problem Eq. (3). For convenience, we reformulate the original optimization objective Eq. (3) as follows, minimize X?SA ,Y?SB ,Z?SC subject to kXk? + kYk? + kZk? Yjk Zki Xij ? + ? + ? = Tijk , n3 n1 n2 (6) (i, j, k) ? ?, where we have incorporated coefficients on the nuclear norm terms into the constraints. It is easy ?1/2 ?1/2 ?1/2 to see that the recovered tensor is given by Pair(n3 X, n1 Y, n2 Z), where X, Y, Z is the 4 optimal solution of Eq. (6). Our algorithm solves a slightly relaxed version of the reformulated objective Eq. (6),  1 2 2 2 minimize ? (kXk? + kYk? + kZk? ) + kXkF + kYkF + kZkF (7) X?SA ,Y?SB ,Z?SC 2 Xij Yjk Zki subject to ? + ? + ? = Tijk , (i, j, k) ? ?. n3 n1 n2 It is easy to see that Eq. (7) is closely related to Eq. (6) and the original problem Eq. (3), as the relaxed problem converges to the original one as ? ? ?. Therefore by selecting a large value the parameter ? , a minimizing solution to Eq. (7) nearly minimizes Eq. (3). Our algorithm iteratively minimizes Eq. (7) and produces a sequence of matrices {Xk , Yk , Zk } converging to the optimal solution (X, Y, Z) that minimizes Eq. (7). We begin with several definitions. For observations ? = {ai , bi , ci |i ? [m]}, let operators P?A : Rn1 ?n2 ? Rm , P?B : Rn2 ?n3 ? Rm and P?C : Rn3 ?n1 ? Rm represents the influence of X, Y, Z on the m observations. In particular, m 1 X P?A (X) = ? Xai bi ?i , n3 i=1 m m 1 X 1 X P?B (Y) = ? Ybi ci ?i , and P?C (Z) = ? Zc a ?i . n1 i=1 n2 i=1 i i ?1/2 ?1/2 ?1/2 It is easy to verify that P?A (X) + P?B (Y) + P?C (Z) = P? (Pair(n3 X, n1 Y, n2 Z)). We also denote P?? A be the adjoint operator of P?A and similarly define P?? B and P?? C . Finally, for a matrix X for size n1 ? n2 , we define center(X) = X ? n11 11T X as the column centering operator that removes the mean of each n2 columns, i.e., 1T center(X) = 0T . Starting with y0 = 0 and k = 1, our algorithm iteratively computes Step (1). Xk = shrinkA (P?? A (yk?1 ), ? ), Yk = shrinkB (P?? B (yk?1 ), ? ), Zk = shrinkC (P?? C (yk?1 ), ? ), ?1/2 Step (2e). ek = P? (T ) ? P? (Pair(n3 k y =y k?1 ?1/2 X, n1 ?1/2 Y, n2 Z)) k + ?e . Here shrinkA is a shrinkage operator defined as follows 2 1 ? ? ? M + ? M shrinkA (M, ? ) , arg min M . 2 F ? ? M?S A (8) ? belongs SB Shrinkage operators shrinkB and shrinkC are defined similarly except they require M and SC , respectively. We note that our definition of the shrinkage operators shrinkA , shrinkB and ? is unconstrained. shrinkC are slightly different from that of the original SVT [3] algorithm, where M We can show that our constrained version of shrinkage operators can also be calculated using singular value decompositions of column centered matrices. Let the SVD of the column centered matrix center(M) be center(M) = U?VT , diag({?i }). We can prove that the shrinkage operator shrinkB is given by shrinkB (M, ? ) = U diag({?i ? ? }+ )VT , ? = (9) where s+ is the positive part of s, that is, s+ = max{0, s}. Since subspace SC is structurally identical to SB , it is easy to see that the calculation of shrinkC is identical to that of shrinkB . The computation of shrinkA is a little more complicated. We have shrinkA (M, ? ) = U diag({?i ? ? }+ )VT + ? 1 ({? ? ? }+ + {? + ? }? ) 11T , n1 n2 (10) where U?VT is still the SVD of center(M), ? = ?n11 n2 1T M1 is a constant and s? = min{0, s} is the negative part of s. The algorithm iterates between Step (1) and Step (2e) and produces a series of (Xk , Yk , Zk ) converging to the optimal solution of Eq. (7). The iterative procedure terminates 5 when the training error is small enough, namely, ek F ? . We refer interested readers to [3] for a convergence proof of the SVT algorithm. The optimization problem for noisy completion Eq. (5) can be solved in a similar manner. We only need to modify Step (2e) to incorporate the quadratical constraint of Eq. (5) as follows Step (2n).  ?1/2 ?1/2 ?1/2 ek = P? (T? ) ? P? (Pair(n3 X, n1 Y, n2 Z))      yk yk?1 ek = PK +? , ? sk sk?1 where P? (T? ) is the noisy observations and the cone projection operator PK can be explicitly computed by ? ? if kxk ? t, ?(x, t) kxk+t PK : (x, t) ? 2kxk (x, kxk) if ? kxk ? t ? kxk , ? ?(0, 0) if t ? ? kxk . By iterating between Step (1) and Step (2n) and selecting a sufficiently large ? , the algorithm generates a sequence of {Xk , Yk , Zk } that converges to a nearly optimal solution to the noisy completion program Eq. (5) [3]. We have also included a detailed description of both algorithms in the supplementary material. At each iteration, we need to compute one singular value decomposition and perform a few elementary matrix additions. We can see that for each iteration k, Xk vanishes outside of ?A = {ai bi } and is sparse. Similarly Yk ,Zk are also sparse matrices. Previously, we showed that the computation of shrinkage operators requires a SVD of a column centered matrix center(M) ? n11 11T X, which is the sum of a sparse matrix M and a rank-one matrix. Clearly the matrix-vector multiplication of the form center(M)v can be computed with time O(n + m). This enables the use of Lanczos method based SVD implementations for example PROPACK [14] and SVDPACKC [2], which only needs subroutine of calculating matrix-vector products. In our implementation, we develop a customized version of SVDPACKC for computing the shrinkage operators. Further, for an appropriate choice of ? , {Xk , Yk , Zk } turned out to be low rank matrices, which matches the observations in the original SVT algorithm [3]. Hence, the storage cost Xk , Yk , Zk can be kept low and we only need to perform a partial SVD to get the first r singular vectors. The estimated rank r is gradually increased during the iterations using a similar method suggested in [3, Section 5.1.1]. We can see that, in sum, the overall complexity per iteration of the recovery algorithm is O(r(n + m)). 4 Experiments Phase transition in exact recovery. We investigate how the number of measurements affects the success of exact recovery. In this simulation, we fixed n1 = 100, n2 = 150, n3 = 200 and r1 = r2 = r3 = r. We tested a variety of choices of (r, m) and for each choice of (r, m), we repeat the procedure for 10 times. At each time, we randomly generated A ? SA , B ? SB , C ? SC of rank r. We generated A ? SA by sampling two factor matrices UA ? Rn1 ?r , VA ? Rn2 ?r with i.i.d. T standard Gaussian entries and setting A = PSA (UA VA ), where PSA is the orthogonal projection onto subspace SA . Matrices B ? SB and C ? SC are sampled in a similar way. We uniformly sampled a subset ? of m entries and reveal them to the recovery algorithm. We deemed A, B, C successfully recovered if (kAkF + kBkF + kCkF )?1 (kX ? AkF + kY ? BkF + kZ ? CkF ) ? 10?3 , where X, Y and Z are the ? recovered matrices. Finally, we set the parameters ?, ? of the exact recovery algorithm by ? = 10 n1 n2 n3 and ? = 0.9m(n1 n2 n3 )?1 . Figure 1 shows the results of these experiments. The x-axis is the ratio between the number of measurements m and the degree of freedom d = r(n1 + n2 ? r) + r(n2 + n3 ? r) + r(n3 + n1 ? r). Note that a value of x-axis smaller than one corresponds to a case where there is infinite number of solutions satisfying given entries. The y-axis is the rank r of the synthetic matrices. The color of each grid indicates the empirical success rate. White denotes exact recovery in all 10 experiments, and black denotes failure for all experiments. From Figure 1 (Left), we can see that the algorithm succeeded almost certainly when the number of measurements is 2.5 times or larger than the degree of freedom for most parameter settings. We also observe that, near the boundary of m/d ? 2.5, there is a relatively sharp phase transition. To verify this phenomenon, we repeated the experiments, 6 Figure 1: Phase transition with respect to rank and degree of freedom. Left: m/d ? [1, 5]. Right: m/d ? [1.5, 3.0]. but only vary m/d between 1.5 and 3.0 with finer steps. The results on Figure 1 (Right) shows that the phase transition continued to be sharp at a higher resolution. Stability of recovering from noisy data. In this simulation, we show the recovery performance with respect to noisy data. Again, we fixed n1 = 100, n2 = 150, n3 = 200 and r1 = r2 = r3 = r and tested against different choices of (r, m). For each choice of (r, m), we sampled the ground truth A, B, C using the same method as in the previous simulation. We generated ? uniformly at random. For each entry (i, j, k) ? ?, we simulated the noisy observation T?ijk = Tijk + ijk , where ijk is a zero-mean Gaussian random variable with variance ?n2 . Then, we revealed {T?ijk }(ijk)?? to the noisy recovery algorithm and collect the recovered matrix X, Y, Z. The error of recovery result is measured by (kX ? AkF + kY ? BkF + kZ ? CkF )/(kAkF + kBkF + kCkF ). We tested the algorithm with a range of noise levels and for each different configuration of (r, m, ?n2 ), we repeated the experiments for 10 times and recorded the mean and standard deviation of the relative error. noise level 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 relative error 0.1020 ? 0.0005 0.1972 ? 0.0007 0.2877 ? 0.0011 0.3720 ? 0.0015 0.4524 ? 0.0015 observations m m = 3d m = 4d m = 5d m = 6d m = 7d relative error 0.1445 ? 0.0008 0.1153 ? 0.0006 0.1015 ? 0.0004 0.0940 ? 0.0007 0.0920 ? 0.0011 rank r 10 20 30 40 50 relative error 0.1134 ? 0.0006 0.1018 ? 0.0007 0.0973 ? 0.0037 0.1032 ? 0.0212 0.1520 ? 0.0344 (a) Fix r = 20, m = 5d and (b) Fix r = 20, 0.1 noise level (c) Fix m = 5d, 0.1 noise level noise level varies. and m varies. and r varies. Table 1: Simulation results of noisy data. We present the result of the experiments in Table 1. From the results in Table 1(a), we can see that the error in the solution is proportional to the noise level. Table 1(b) indicates that the recovery is not reliable when we have too few observations, while the performance of the algorithm is much more stable for a sufficient number of observations around four times of the degree of freedom. Table 1(c) shows that the recovery error is not affected much by the rank, as the number of observations scales with the degree of freedom in our setting. Temporal collaborative filtering. In order to demonstrate the performance of pairwise interaction tensor on real world applications, we conducted experiments on the Movielens dataset. The MovieLens dataset contains 1,000,209 ratings from 6,040 users and 3,706 movies from April, 2000 and February, 2003. Each rating from Movielens dataset is accompanied with time information provided in seconds. We transformed each timestamp into its corresponding calendar month. We randomly select 10% ratings as test set and use the rest of the ratings as training set. In the end, we obtained a tensor T of size 6040 ? 3706 ? 36, in which the axes corresponded to user, movie and timestamp respectively, with 0.104% observed entries as the training set. We applied the noisy recovery algorithm on the training set. Following previous studies which applies SVT algorithm on movie recommendation datasets [11], we used a pre-specified truncation level r for computing SVD in each iteration, i.e., we only kept top r singular vectors. Therefore, the rank of recovered matrices are at most r. 7 We evaluated the prediction performance in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE). We compared our algorithm with noisy matrix completion method using standard SVT optimization algorithm [3, 4] to the same dataset while ignore the time information. Here we can regard the noisy matrix completion algorithm as a special case of the recover a pairwise interaction tensor of size 6040 ? 3706 ? 1, i.e., the time information is ignored. We also noted that the training tensor had more than one million observed entries and 80 millions total entries. This scale made a number of tensor recovery algorithms, for example Tucker decomposition and PARAFAC [12], impractical to apply on the dataset. In contrast, our recovery algorithm took 2430 seconds to finish on a standard workstation for truncation level r = 100. The experimental result is shown in Figure 2. The empirical result of Figure 2(a) suggests that, by incorporating the temporal information, pairwise interaction tensor recovery algorithm consistently outperformed the matrix completion method. Interestingly, we can see that, for most parameter settings in Figure 2(b), our algorithm recovered a rank 2 matrix Y representing the change of movie popularity over time and a rank 15 matrix Z that encodes the change of user interests over time. The reason of the improvement on the prediction performance may be that the recovered matrix Y and Z provided meaningful signal. Finally, we note that our algorithm achieves a RMSE of 0.858 when the truncation level is set to 50, which slightly outperforms the RMSE=0.861 (quote from Figure 7 of the paper) result of 30-dimensional Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorization (BPTF) on the same dataset, where the authors predict the ratings by factorizing a 6040 ? 3706 ? 36 tensor using BPTF method [26]. We may attribute the performance gain to the modeling flexibility of pairwise interaction tensor and the learning guarantees of our algorithm. 1 120 RMSE 0.98 0.96 100 0.94 80 MC 0.92 60 0.9 40 0.88 20 RPIT 20 40 60 80 r3 r2 0 0.86 0 r1 100 20 SVD truncation level 40 60 80 100 120 SVD Truncation Level (a) (b) Figure 2: Empirical results on the Movielens dataset. (a) Comparison of RMSE with different truncation levels. MC: Matrix completion algorithm. RPIT: Recovery algorithm for pairwise interaction tensor. (b) Rank of recovered matrix X, Y, Z. r1 = rank(X), r2 = rank(Y), r3 = rank(Z). 5 Conclusion In this paper, we proved rigorous guarantees for convex programs for recovery of pairwise interaction tensors with missing entries, both in the absence and in the presence of noise. We designed a scalable optimization algorithm for solving the convex programs. We supplemented our theoretical results with simulation experiments and a real-world application to movie recommendation. In the noiseless case, simulations showed that the exact recovery almost always succeeded if the number of observations is a constant time of the degree of freedom, which agrees asymptotically with the theoretical result. In the noisy case, the simulation results confirmed that the stable recovery algorithm is able to reliably recover pairwise interaction tensor from noisy observations. Our results on the temporal movie recommendation application demonstrated that, by incorporating the temporal information, our algorithm outperforms conventional matrix completion and achieves state-of-the-art results. Acknowledgments This work was fully supported by the Basic Research Program of Shenzhen (Project No. JCYJ20120619152419087 and JC201104220300A), and the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK 413212 and CUHK 415212). 8 References [1] Evrim Acar, Daniel M Dunlavy, Tamara G Kolda, and Morten M?rup. Scalable tensor factorizations for incomplete data. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 106(1):41?56, 2011. [2] M Berry et al. Svdpackc (version 1.0) user?s guide, university of tennessee tech. Report (393-194, 1993 (Revised October 1996)., 1993. [3] Jian-Feng Cai, Emmanuel J Cand`es, and Zuowei Shen. A singular value thresholding algorithm for matrix completion. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 20(4):1956?1982, 2010. [4] Emmanuel J Candes and Yaniv Plan. Matrix completion with noise. Proceedings of the IEEE, 98(6):925? 936, 2010. [5] Emmanuel J Cand`es and Benjamin Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Foundations of Computational mathematics, 9(6):717?772, 2009. [6] A Evgeniou and Massimiliano Pontil. Multi-task feature learning. 2007. [7] Maryam Fazel, Haitham Hindi, and Stephen P Boyd. A rank minimization heuristic with application to minimum order system approximation. In American Control Conference, 2001, 2001. [8] David Gross, Yi-Kai Liu, Steven T Flammia, Stephen Becker, and Jens Eisert. Quantum state tomography via compressed sensing. Physical review letters, 105(15):150401, 2010. [9] Johan H?astad. Tensor rank is np-complete. Journal of Algorithms, 11(4):644?654, 1990. [10] Christopher Hillar and Lek-Heng Lim. Most tensor problems are np hard. JACM, 2013. [11] Prateek Jain, Raghu Meka, and Inderjit Dhillon. Guaranteed rank minimization via singular value projection. In NIPS, 2010. [12] Tamara G Kolda and Brett W Bader. Tensor decompositions and applications. SIAM review, 51(3):455? 500, 2009. [13] Yehuda Koren, Robert Bell, and Chris Volinsky. Matrix factorization techniques for recommender systems. Computer, 42(8):30?37, 2009. [14] Rasmus Munk Larsen. Propack-software for large and sparse svd calculations. Available online., 2004. [15] Ji Liu, Przemyslaw Musialski, Peter Wonka, and Jieping Ye. Tensor completion for estimating missing values in visual data. In ICCV, 2009. [16] Ian Porteous, Evgeniy Bart, and Max Welling. Multi-hdp: A non-parametric bayesian model for tensor factorization. In AAAI, 2008. [17] Steffen Rendle, Leandro Balby Marinho, Alexandros Nanopoulos, and Lars Schmidt-Thieme. Learning optimal ranking with tensor factorization for tag recommendation. In SIGKDD, 2009. [18] Steffen Rendle, Christoph Freudenthaler, and Lars Schmidt-Thieme. Factorizing personalized markov chains for next-basket recommendation. In WWW, 2010. [19] Steffen Rendle and Lars Schmidt-Thieme. Pairwise interaction tensor factorization for personalized tag recommendation. In ICDM, 2010. [20] Amnon Shashua and Tamir Hazan. Non-negative tensor factorization with applications to statistics and computer vision. In ICML, 2005. [21] Yue Shi, Alexandros Karatzoglou, Linas Baltrunas, Martha Larson, Alan Hanjalic, and Nuria Oliver. Tfmap: Optimizing map for top-n context-aware recommendation. In SIGIR, 2012. [22] Nathan Srebro, Jason DM Rennie, and Tommi Jaakkola. Maximum-margin matrix factorization. NIPS, 2005. [23] Ryota Tomioka, Kohei Hayashi, and Hisashi Kashima. Estimation of low-rank tensors via convex optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1010.0789, 2010. [24] Ryota Tomioka, Taiji Suzuki, Kohei Hayashi, and Hisashi Kashima. Statistical performance of convex tensor decomposition. NIPS, 2011. [25] Jason Weston, Chong Wang, Ron Weiss, and Adam Berenzweig. Latent collaborative retrieval. ICML, 2012. [26] Liang Xiong, Xi Chen, Tzu-Kuo Huang, Jeff Schneider, and Jaime G Carbonell. Temporal collaborative filtering with bayesian probabilistic tensor factorization. In SDM, 2010. 9
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A Computational Mechanism To Account For Averaged Modified Hand Trajectories Ealan A. Henis*and Tamar Flash Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science The Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot 76100, Israel Abstract Using the double-step target displacement paradigm the mechanisms underlying arm trajectory modification were investigated. Using short (10110 msec) inter-stimulus intervals the resulting hand motions were initially directed in between the first and second target locations. The kinematic features of the modified motions were accounted for by the superposition scheme, which involves the vectorial addition of two independent point-topoint motion units: one for moving the hand toward an internally specified location and a second one for moving between that location and the final target location . The similarity between the inferred internally specified locations and previously reported measured end-points of the first saccades in double-step eye-movement studies may suggest similarities between perceived target locations in eye and hand motor control. 1 INTRODUCTION The generation of reaching movements toward unexpectedly displaced targets involves more complicated planning and control problems than in reaching toward stationary ones, since the planning of the trajectory modification must be performed before the initial plan is entirely completed. One possible scheme to modify a trajectory plan is to abort the rest of the original motion plan, and replace it with a new one for moving toward the new target location. Another possible modifica?Current address IRCS/GRASP, University of Pennsylvania. 619 620 Henis and Flash tion scheme is to superimpose a second plan with the initial one, without aborting it. Both schemes are discussed below. Earlier studies of reaching movements toward static targets have shown that pointto-point reaching hand motions follow a roughly straight path, having a typical bellshaped velocity profile. The kinematic features ofthese movements were successfully accounted for (Figure 1, left) by the minimum-jerk model (Flash & Hogan, 1985). In that model the X -components of hand motions (and analogously the Y -components) were represented by: (1) VI o. -- ~B ,., ,., A c ) ! Time --- -0.2 B .....-+ A Vy IKlaft o. b. Figure 1: The Minimum-jerk Model and The Non-averaged Superposition Scheme I o. 100 Computer . c ? B ? .: . ... ..... .. ... :: . . . . 2' ? ? I .:. :. o ? . 100 o o D msec 500 Figure 2: The Experimental Setup and The Initial Movement Direction Vs. n A Computational Mechanism ro Accoum for Averaged Modified Hand Trajecrories where tf is the movement duration, and XB -XA is the X-component of movement amplitude. In a previous study (Henis & Flash, 1989; Flash & Henis, 1991) we have used the double-step target displacement paradigm (see below) with inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) of 50-400 msec. Many of the resulting motions were found to be initially directed toward the first target location (non-averagerl) (for larger ISIs a larger percentage of the motions were non-averaged). The kinematic features of these modified motions were successfully accounted for (Figure 1 right) by a superposition modification scheme that involves the vectorial addition of two time-shifted independent point-to-point motion units (Equation (1)) that have amplitudes that correspond to the two target displacements. In the present study shorter ISIs of 10-110 msec were used, hence, all target displacements occurred before movement initiation. Most of the resulting hand motions were found to be initially directed in between the first and second target locations (averaged motions). For increasing values of D, where D RTI - lSI (RTl is the reaction time), the initial motion direction gradually shifted from the direction of the first toward the direction of the second stimulus (Figure 2 right). The averaging phenomenon has been previously reported for hand (Van Sonderen et al., 1988) and eye (Aslin & Shea, 1987; Van Gisbergen et al., 1987) motions. In this work we wished to account for the kinematic features of averaged trajectories as well as for the dependence of their initial direction on D. = It was observed (Van Sonderen et al., 1988) that when the first target displacement was toward the left and the second one was obliquely downwards and to the right most of the resulting motions were averaged. Averaged motions were also induced when the first target displacement was downwards and the second one was obliquely upwards and to the left. In this study we have used similar target displacements. Four naive subjects participated in the experiments. The motions were performed in the absence of visual feedback from the moving limb. In a typical trial, initially the hand was at rest at a starting position A (Figure 2 left). At t 0 a visual target was presented at one of two equally probable positions B. It either remained lit (control condition, probability 0.4) or was shifted again, following an lSI, to one of two equally probable positions C (double-step condition, probability 0.3 each). In a block of trials one target configuration was used. Each block consisted of five groups of 56 trials, and within each group one lSI pair was used. The five lSI pairs were: 10 and 80, 20 and 110, 30 and 150, 40 and 200, and 50 and 300 msec. The target presentation sequence was randomized, and included appropriate control trials. = 2 2.1 MODELING RATIONALE AND ANALYSIS THE SUPERPOSITION SCHEME The superposition scheme for averaged modified motions is based on the vectorial addition of two time-shifted independent elemental point-to-point hand motions that obey Equation (1). The first elemental trajectory plan is for moving between the initial hand location and an intermediate location B i , internally specified. This plan continues unmodified until its intended completion. The second elemental trajectory plan is for moving between Bi and the final location of the target. The durations of the elemental motions may vary among trials, and are therefore a 621 622 Henis and Flash priori unknown. With short ISIs the elemental motion plans may be added (to give the modified plan) preceding movement initiation. Several possibilities for Bi were examined: a) the first location of the stimulus, b) an a priori unknown position, c) same as (b) with Bi constrained to lie on the line connecting the first and second locations of the stimulus, and d) same as (b) with Bi constrained to lie on the line of initial movement direction. Version (a) is equivalent to the superposition scheme that successfully accounted for non-averaged modified trajectories (Flash & Henis, 1991). In versions (b), (c) and (d) it was assumed that due to the quick displacement of the target, the specification of the end-point for the first motion plan may differ from the actual first location of the target. The first motion unit was represented by: Xl(t) = X A + (XB. - XA)(10T3 - 15T4 + 6T 5 ), where t T = - . Tl (2) In (2), (XBi - XA) is the X -component of the first unit amplitude. The duration of this unit is denoted by T i , a priori unknown. The expression for Yi (t) was analogous to Equation (2). The X-component of the second motion unit was taken to be: X2(t) = (Xc - XB.)(lOT 3 - 15T4 + 6T 5 ), where T = t - t, t - t, = - - . (3) tl - t, T2 In (3), (Xc - XBJ is the X-component of the amplitude of the second trajectory unit. The start and end times of the second unit are denoted by t, and t I, respectively. The duration of the second motion unit T2 tl-t, is a priori unknown. The X -component of the entire modified motion (and similarly for the Y -component) was represented by: (4) = The unknown parameters T 1 , T 2 , BiX and BiY that can best describe the entire measured trajectory were determined by using least-squares best-fit methods (Marquardt, 1963). This procedure minimized the sum of the position errors between the simulated and measured data points, taking into account (in versions (a), (c) and (d)) the assumed constraints on the location B i . 2.2 THE ABORT-REPLAN SCHEME In the abort-replan scheme it was assumed that initially a point-to-point trajectory plan is generated for moving toward an initial target (Equation (2?). The same four different possibilities for the end-point of the initial motion plan were examined. It was assumed that at some time-instant t, the initial plan is aborted and replaced t, and the by a new plan for moving between the expected hand position at t final target location. The new motion plan was assumed to be represented by: = 5 XNEW(t) = L:ai(t)i. (5) i=O The coefficients a3, a4 and a5 were derived by using the the measured values of position, velocity and acceleration at t t I. For versions (b), (c) and (d) the analysis was performed simultaneously for the X and Y components of the trajectory. Choosing a trial Bi and Tl the initial motion plan (Equation (2? was = A Computational Mechanism to Account for Averaged Modified Hand Trajectories calculated. Choosing a trial t" the remaining three unknown coefficients ao, al and a2 of Equation (5) were calculated using the continuity conditions of the initial and new position, velocity and acceleration at t = t, (method I). Alternatively, these three coefficients were calculated using the corresponding measured values at t t, (method II). To determine the best choice of the unknown parameters B iX , B iy , Tl and t, the same least squares methods (Marquardt, 1963) were used as described above. For version (a), for each cartesian component, a point-to-point minimumjerk trajectory AB was speed-scaled to coincide with the initial part of the measured velocity profile. The time t, of its deviation from the measured speed profile was extracted. From t, on, the trajectory was represented by Equation (5). The values of ao, al and a2 were derived by using the same least squares methods (method I). Alternatively, these values were determined by using the measured position, velocity and acceleration at t = t, (method II). = 3 RESULTS The motions recorded in the control trials were roughly straight with bell-shaped speed profiles. The mean reaction time in these control trials was 367.1 ? 94.6 msec (N = 120). The mean movement time was 574.1 ? 127.0 msec (N = 120). The change in target location elicited a graded movement toward an intermediate direction in between the two target locations, followed by a subsequent motion toward the final target (Figure 3, middle). Occasionally the hand went directly toward the final target location (Figure 3, right). For values of D less than 100 ms the movements were found to be initially directed toward the first target (Figure 3, left). As D increased, the initial direction of the motions gradually shifted (Figure 2, right) from the direction of the first (non-averaged) toward the direction of the second (direct) target locations (The initial direction depended on D rather than on lSI). The mean reaction time to the first stimulus (RTI) was 350.4 ? 93.5 msec (N=192). The mean reaction time to the second stimulus (RT2 ) (inferred from the superposition version (b)) was 382.8 ? 119.9 msec (N=192) . This value is much smaller than that predicted by successive processing of information: RT2 = 2RTl lSI (Poulton, 1981), and might be indicative of the presence of parallel planning . The mean durations Tl and T2 of the two trajectory units (of superposition version (b)) were: 373.0 ? 112.2 and 592.1 ? 98.1 msec (N = 192), respectively. 3.1 MODIFICATION SCHEMES The most statistically successful model (Table-I) in accounting for the measured motions was the superposition version (b), which involves an internally specified location (a priori unknown) for the end-point of the first motion unit. In particular, the averaged initial direction of the measured motions was accounted for. Superposition version (d) was equivalent to version (b). The velocities simulated on the basis the other tested schemes substantially deviated from the measured ones (Table 1 and Figure 4). It should be noted that in both the superposition and abortreplan versions (b), (c) and (d) there were 4, 3 and 3 unknown parameters. In the abort-replan versions (aI) there were 3 unknown parameters, compared to 2 in the superposition version (a). Hence the relative success of the superposition version (b) in accounting for the data was not due to a larger number of free parameters. 623 624 Henis and Flash Table 1: Normalized Velocity Deviations and The t-score With SP(b? SP(a) SP(b) SP(c) Sped) AB(aI) AB(aU) AB(bI) AB(bU) AB(d) AB(clI) AB(dI) AB(dU) 18.60 ? 50.16 (4 .711) 0.035 ? 0.036 (0 .000) 0.126 ? 0.132 (8.465) 0.042 ? 0.045 (1 .546) 0.083 ? 0.093 (6.126) 0.084 ? 0.088 (6.559) 0.081 0.078 ? 0.101 ? 0.102 (5 .460) (5.050) 0.084 ? 0.108 (5.4 78) 0.083 ? 0.096 (5.959) 0.082 ? 0.097 (5.782) 0.085 ? 0.101 (5.935) Direct -- Averaged Non- Averaqed ~ c~ c+~ lSI '50 0?400 1St- 40 ISI?200 0'80 0?250 B+ l~em B B + "...:~ lSI? 50 O' 280 0'120 C +B B+ A o ~ b B + A ~ A ISI ? ao 0 - 450 lc c Figure 3: Types of Modified Trajectories B+ SP(h) \A 8 + AB(hII) \ c T.... --- 100_ C+~A \~tm o. +B 0 i ? :.0 I i'-'0" AB(bII) SP(h) C fo~ ?02 (+A +B r~ 1- v. 0 r.tooP--+---Figure 4: Representative Simulated Vs . Measured Trajectories A Computational Mechanism to Accoum for Averaged Modified Hand Trajectories 3.2 THE END-POINTS INFERRED FROM SUPERPOSITION (b) The mean locations Bi resulting from different trials performed by the same subject were computed by pooling together Bi of movements with the same D ? 15 msec (Figure 5 left). For D < 100 msec, the measured motions were non-averaged and the inferred Bi were in the vicinity of the first target. For increasing values of D, Bi gradually shifted from the first toward the second target location, following a typical path that curved toward the initial hand position . For D 2:: 400 msec, Bi were in the vicinity of the second target location. Since initially the motions are directed toward B i , this gradual shift of Bi as a function of D may account for the observed dependence of the initial direction of motion on D . The locations Bi obtained on the basis of the other tested schemes did not show any regular behavior as functions of D. 4 DISCUSSION This paper presents explicit possible mechanisms to account for the kinematic features of averaged modified trajectories . the most statistically successful scheme in accounting for the measured movements involves the vectorial addition of two independent point-to-point motion units: one for moving between the initial hand position and an internally specified location, and a second one for moving between that location and the final target location. Taken together with previous results for non-averaged modified trajectories (Flash & Renis, 1991), it was shown that the same superposition principle may account for both modified trajectory types. The differences between the observed types stem from differences in the time available to modify the end-point of the first unit . Our simulations have enabled us to infer the locations of the intermediate target locations, which were found to be similar to previously reported (Aslin & Shea, 1987) experimentally measured end-points of the first saccades, obtained by using the double-step paradigm (Figure 5 right!). This result may suggests underlying similarities between internally perceived target locations in eye and hand motor control and may suggest a common "where" command (Gielen et al., 1984; 1990) for both systems. c + ~ C~A ~ A .1210 .. ISc", C~A B 410? . . . +B B B -~=-- Figure 5: Inferred First Unit End-points and Measured Eye Positions 1 Reprinted with permission from Vision Res., Vol. 27, No. 11, 1925-1942, Aslin, R.N . and Shea S.L.: The Amplitude And Angle of Saccades to Double-Step Target Displacements, Copyright [1987], Pergamon Press pic. 625 626 Henis and Flash Why is the internally specified location dependent on D, which is a parameter associated with both sensory information and motor execution? One possible explanation is that following the target displacement the effect of the first stimulus on the motion planning decays, and that of the second stimulus becomes larger. These changes may occur in the transformations from the visual to the motor system. A purely sensory change in the perceived target location was also proposed (Van Sonderen et aI., 1988; Becker & Jurgens 1979). Another possibility is that the direction of hand motion is internally coded in the motor system (Georgopoulos et al., 1986), and it gradually rotates (within the motor system) from the direction of the first to the direction of the second target. It is not clear which of these possibilities provides a better explanation for the observations. In the superposition scheme there is no need to keep track of the actual or planned kinematic state of the hand. Hence, in contrast to the abort-replan scheme, an efference copy of the planned motion is not required. The successful use of motion plans expressed in extrapersonal coordinates provides support to the idea that arm movements are internally represented in terms of hand motion through external space. The construction of complex movements from simpler elementary building blocks is consistent with a hierarchical organization of the motor system. The independence of the elemental trajectories allows to plan them in parallel. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant no. 8800141 from the United-States Israel Binational Science Foundation (BSF), Jerusalem, Israel. Tamar Flash is incumbent of the Corinne S. Koshland career development chair. References Aslin, R.N. and Shea S.L. (1987). The Amplitude And Angle of Saccades to Double-Step Target Displacements. Vision Res., Vol. 27, No. 11, 1925-1942. Becker W. and Jurgens R. (1979). An Analysis of The Saccadic System By Means of Double-Step Stimuli. Vision Res., 19, 967-983. Flash T. and Henis E. (1991). Arm Trajectory Modification During Reaching Towards Visual Targets. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience Vol. 3, no. 3, 220-230. Flash, T. & Hogan, N. (1985). The coordination of arm movements: an experimentally confirmed mathematical model. J. Neurosci., 7, 1688-1703. Georgopoulos A.P., Schwartz A.B. & Kettner R.E. (1986). Neuronal population coding of movement direction. Science 233, 1416-1419. Gi~len, C.C.A.M., ~an ?en Heuvel, P.J.~. & Denier Van der Gon, J.J. (1984). Modificatlon. of muscle activation pat terns durmg fast goal-directed arm movements. J. Motor BehaVlor, 16, 2-19. Gielen C.C.A.M. & Van Gisbergen J .A.M. (1990). The visual guidance of saccades and fast aiming movements. News in Physiological Sciences Vol.5, 58-63. Henis E. and Flash T. (1989). Mechanisms Sub serving Arm Trajectory Modification. Perception 18(4):495. Marquardt, D.W., (1963). An algorithm for least-squares estimation of non-linear parameters. J. SIAM, 11, 431-441. Van Gisbergen, J.A.M., Van Opstal, A.J. & Roebroek, J.G.H. {1987}. Stimulus-induced midflight modification of saccade trajectories. In J.K. O'Regan & A. Levy-Schoen (Eds.), Eye Movements: From Physiology to Cognition, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 27-36. Van S~n~eren, J.F., D.eniex: Van Der Gon, J.J. & Gielen, C.C.A.M. (1988). Conditions detenmrung early modificatlon of motor programmes in response to change in target location. Exp. Brain Res., 71, 320-328.
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Matrix factorization with Binary Components Martin Slawski, Matthias Hein and Pavlo Lutsik Saarland University {ms,hein}@cs.uni-saarland.de, [email protected] Abstract Motivated by an application in computational biology, we consider low-rank matrix factorization with {0, 1}-constraints on one of the factors and optionally convex constraints on the second one. In addition to the non-convexity shared with other matrix factorization schemes, our problem is further complicated by a combinatorial constraint set of size 2m?r , where m is the dimension of the data points and r the rank of the factorization. Despite apparent intractability, we provide ? in the line of recent work on non-negative matrix factorization by Arora et al. (2012)? an algorithm that provably recovers the underlying factorization in the exact case with O(mr2r + mnr + r2 n) operations for n datapoints. To obtain this result, we use theory around the Littlewood-Offord lemma from combinatorics. 1 Introduction Low-rank matrix factorization techniques like the singular value decomposition (SVD) constitute an important tool in data analysis yielding a compact representation of data points as linear combinations of a comparatively small number of ?basis elements? commonly referred to as factors, components or latent variables. Depending on the specific application, the basis elements may be required to fulfill additional properties, e.g. non-negativity [1, 2], smoothness [3] or sparsity [4, 5]. In the present paper, we consider the case in which the basis elements are constrained to be binary, i.e. we aim at factorizing a real-valued data matrix D into a product T A with T ? {0, 1}m?r and A ? Rr?n , r ? min{m, n}. Such decomposition arises e.g. in blind source separation in wireless communication with binary source signals [6]; in network inference from gene expression data [7, 8], where T encodes connectivity of transcription factors and genes; in unmixing of cell mixtures from DNA methylation signatures [9] in which case T represents presence/absence of methylation; or in clustering with overlapping clusters with T as a matrix of cluster assignments [10, 11]. Several other matrix factorizations involving binary matrices have been proposed in the literature. In [12] and [13] matrix factorization for binary input data, but non-binary factors T and A is discussed, whereas a factorization T W A with both T and A binary and real-valued W is proposed in [14], which is more restrictive than the model of the present paper. The model in [14] in turn encompasses binary matrix factorization as proposed in [15], where all of D, T and A are constrained to be binary. It is important to note that this ine of research is fundamentally different from Boolean matrix factorization [16], which is sometimes also referred to as binary matrix factorization. A major drawback of matrix factorization schemes is non-convexity. As a result, there is in general no algorithm that is guaranteed to compute the desired factorization. Algorithms such as block coordinate descent, EM, MCMC, etc. commonly employed in practice lack theoretical guarantees beyond convergence to a local minimum. Substantial progress in this regard has been achieved recently for non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) by Arora et al. [17] and follow-up work in [18], where it is shown that under certain additional conditions, the NMF problem can be solved globally optimal by means of linear programming. Apart from being a non-convex problem, the matrix factorization studied in the present paper is further complicated by the {0, 1}-constraints imposed on the left factor T , which yields a combinatorial optimization problem that appears to be computationally intractable except for tiny dimensions m and r even in case the right factor A were 1 already known. Despite the obvious hardness of the problem, we present as our main contribution an algorithm that provably provides an exact factorization D = T A whenever such factorization exists. Our algorithm has exponential complexity only in the rank r of the factorization, but scales linearly in m and n. In particular, the problem remains tractable even for large values of m as long as r remains small. We extend the algorithm to the approximate case D ? T A and empirically show superior performance relative to heuristic approaches to the problem. Moreover, we establish uniqueness of the exact factorization under the separability condition from the NMF literature [17, 19], or alternatively with high probability for T drawn uniformly at random. As a corollary, we obtain that at least for these two models, the suggested algorithm continues to be fully applicable if additional constraints e.g. non-negativity, are imposed on the right factor A. We demonstrate the practical usefulness of our approach in unmixing DNA methylation signatures of blood samples [9]. Notation. For a matrix M and index sets I, J, MI,J denotes the submatrix corresponding to I and J; MI,: and M:,J denote the submatrices formed by the rows in I respectively columns in J. We write [M ; M ? ] and [M, M ? ] for the row- respectively column-wise concatenation of M and M ? . The affine hull generated by the columns of M is denoted by aff(M ). The symbols 1/0 denote vectors or matrices of ones/zeroes and I denotes the identity matrix. We use | ? | for the cardinality of a set. Supplement. The supplement contains all proofs, additional comments and experimental results. 2 Exact case We start by considering the exact case, i.e. we suppose that a factorization having the desired properties exists. We first discuss the geometric ideas underlying our basic approach for recovering such factorization from the data matrix before presenting conditions under which the factorization is unique. It is shown that the question of uniqueness as well as the computational performance of our approach is intimately connected to the Littlewood-Offord problem in combinatorics [20]. 2.1 Problem formulation. Given D ? Rm?n , we consider the following problem. find T ? {0, 1}m?r and A ? Rr?n , A? 1r = 1n such that D = T A. (1) The columns {T:,k }rk=1 of T , which are vertices of the hypercube [0, 1]m , are referred to as components. The requirement A? 1r = 1n entails that the columns of D are affine instead of linear combinations of the columns of T . This additional constraint is not essential to our approach; it is imposed for reasons of presentation, in order to avoid that the origin is treated differently from the other vertices of [0, 1]m , because otherwise the zero vector could be dropped from T , leaving the factorization unchanged. We further assume w.l.o.g. that r is minimal, i.e. there is no factorization of the form (1) with r? < r, and in turn that the columns of T are affinely independent, i.e. ?? ? Rr , ?? 1r = 0, T ? = 0 implies that ? = 0. Moreover, it is assumed that rank(A) = r. This ensures the existence of a submatrix A:,C of r linearly independent columns and of a corresponding submatrix of D:,C of affinely independent columns, when combined with the affine independence of the columns of T : ?? ? Rr , ?? 1r = 0 : D:,C ? = 0 ?? T (A:,C ?) = 0 =? A:,C ? = 0 =? ? = 0, (2) r ? using at the second step that 1? r A:,C ? = 1r ? = 0 and the affine independence of the {T:,k }k=1 . Note that the assumption rank(A) = r is natural; otherwise, the data would reside in an affine subspace of lower dimension so that D would not contain enough information to reconstruct T . 2.2 Approach. Property (2) already provides the entry point of our approach. From D = T A, it is obvious that aff(T ) ? aff(D). Since D contains the same number of affinely independent columns as T , it must also hold that aff(D) ? aff(T ), in particular aff(D) ? {T:,k }rk=1 . Consequently, (1) can in principle be solved by enumerating all vertices of [0, 1]m contained in aff(D) and selecting a maximal affinely independent subset thereof (see Figure 1). This procedure, however, is exponential in the dimension m, with 2m vertices to be checked for containment in aff(D) by solving a linear system. Remarkably, the following observation along with its proof, which prompts Algorithm 1 below, shows that the number of elements to be checked can be reduced to 2r?1 irrespective of m. Proposition 1. The affine subspace aff(D) contains no more than 2r?1 vertices of [0, 1]m . Moreover, Algorithm 1 provides all vertices contained in aff(D). 2 Algorithm 1 F INDV ERTICES EXACT 1. Fix p ? aff(D) and compute P = [D:,1 ? p, . . . , D:,n ? p]. 2. Determine r ? 1 linearly independent columns C of P , obtaining P:,C and subsequently r ? 1 linearly independent rows R, obtaining PR,C ? Rr?1?r?1 . ? 3. Form Z = P:,C (PR,C )?1 ? Rm?r?1 and Tb = Z(B (r?1) ? pR 1? 2r?1 ) + p12r?1 ? r?1 Rm?2 , where the columns of B (r?1) correspond to the elements of {0, 1}r?1. 4. Set T = ?. For u = 1, . . . , 2r?1 , if Tb:,u ? {0, 1}m set T = T ? {Tb:,u }. 5. Return T = {0, 1}m ? aff(D). Algorithm 2 B INARY FACTORIZATION EXACT 1. Obtain T as output from F INDV ERTICES E XACT(D) 2. Select r affinely independent elements of T to be used as columns of T . ? 3. Obtain A as solution of the linear system [1? r ; T ]A = [1n ; D]. 4. Return (T, A) solving problem (1). Figure 1: Illustration of the geometry underlying our approach in dimension m = 3. Dots represent data points and the shaded areas their affine hulls aff(D) ? [0, 1]m . Left: aff(D) intersects with r + 1 vertices of [0, 1]m . Right: aff(D) intersects with precisely r vertices. Comments. In step 2 of Algorithm 1, determining the rank of P and an associated set of linearly independent columns/rows can be done by means of a rank-revealing QR factorization [21, 22]. The crucial step is the third one, which is a compact description of first solving the linear systems PR,C ? = b ? pR for all b ? {0, 1}r?1 and back-substituting the result to compute candidate vertices P:,C ? + p stacked into the columns of Tb; the addition/subtraction of p is merely because we have to deal with an affine instead of a linear subspace, in which p serves as origin. In step 4, the pool of 2r?1 ?candidates? is filtered, yielding T = aff(D) ? {0, 1}m. Determining T is the hardest part in solving the matrix factorization problem (1). Given T , the solution can be obtained after few inexpensive standard operations. Note that step 2 in Algorithm 2 is not necessary if one does not aim at finding a minimal factorization, i.e. if it suffices to have ? D = T A with T ? {0, 1}m?r but r? possibly being larger than r. As detailed in the supplement, the case without sum-to-one constraints on A can be handled similarly, as can be the model in [14] with binary left and right factor and real-valued middle factor. Computational complexity. The dominating cost in Algorithm 1 is computation of the candidate matrix Tb and checking whether its columns are vertices of [0, 1]m . Note that TbR,: = ZR,: (B (r?1) ?pR 1?r?1 )+pR 1?r?1 = Ir?1 (B (r?1) ?pR 1?r?1 )+pR 1?r?1 = B (r?1) , (3) 2 2 2 2 i.e. the r ? 1 rows of Tb corresponding to R do not need to be taken into account. Forming the matrix Tb would hence require O((m ? r + 1)(r ? 1)2r?1 ) and the subsequent check for vertices in the fourth step O((m ? r + 1)2r?1 ) operations. All other operations are of lower order provided e.g. (m ? r + 1)2r?1 > n. The second most expensive operation is forming the matrix PR,C in step 2 with the help of a QR decomposition requiring O(mn(r ? 1)) operations in typical cases [21]. Computing the matrix factorization (1) after the vertices have been identified (steps 2 to 4 in Algorithm 2) has complexity O(mnr + r3 + r2 n). Here, the dominating part is the solution of a linear system in r variables and n right hand sides. Altogether, our approach for solving (1) has exponential complexity in r, but only linear complexity in m and n. Later on, we will argue that under additional assumptions on T , the O((m?r+1)2r?1) terms can be reduced to O((r?1)2r?1 ). 2.3 Uniqueness. In this section, we study uniqueness of the matrix factorization problem (1) (modulo permutation of columns/rows). First note that in view of the affine independence of the columns of T , the factorization is unique iff T is, which holds iff aff(D) ? {0, 1}m = aff(T ) ? {0, 1}m = {T:,1 , . . . , T:,r }, (4) i.e. if the affine subspace generated by {T:,1 , . . . , T:,r } contains no other vertices of [0, 1]m than the r given ones (cf. Figure 1). Uniqueness is of great importance in applications, where one aims at 3 an interpretation in which the columns of T play the role of underlying data-generating elements. Such an interpretation is not valid if (4) fails to hold, since it is then possible to replace one of the columns of a specific choice of T by another vertex contained in the same affine subspace. Solution of a non-negative variant of our factorization. In the sequel, we argue that property (4) plays an important role from a computational point of view when solving extensions of problem (1) in which further constraints are imposed on A. One particularly important extension is the following. ? find T ? {0, 1}m?r and A ? Rr?n + , A 1r = 1n such that D = T A. (5) Problem (5) is a special instance of non-negative matrix factorization. Problem (5) is of particular interest in the present paper, leading to a novel real world application of matrix factorization techniques as presented in Section 4.2 below. It is natural to ask whether Algorithm 2 can be adapted to solve problem (5). A change is obviously required for the second step when selecting r vertices from T , since in (5) the columns D now have to be expressed as convex instead of only affine combinations of columns of T : picking an affinely independent collection from T does not take into account the non-negativity constraint imposed on A. If, however, (4) holds, we have |T | = r and Algorithm 2 must return a solution of (5) provided that there exists one. Corollary 1. If problem (1) has a unique solution, i.e. if condition (4) holds and if there exists a solution of (5), then it is returned by Algorithm 2. To appreciate that result, consider the converse case |T | > r. Since the aim is a minimal factorization, one has to find a subset of T of cardinality r such that (5) can be solved. In principle, this can be achieved by solving a linear program for |Tr | subsets of T , but this is in general not computationally feasible: the upper bound of Proposition 1 indicates that |T | = 2r?1 in the worst case. For the example below, T consists of all 2r?1 vertices contained in an r ? 1-dimensional face of [0, 1]m : ? ? 0m?r?r ) ( r?1 X ? ?I T = ? r?1 0r?1 ? with T = T ? : ?1 ? {0, 1}, . . . , ?r?1 ? {0, 1}, ?r = 1 ? ?k . (6) k=1 0? r Uniqueness under separability. In view of the negative example (6), one might ask whether uniqueness according to (4) can be achieved under additional conditions on T . We prove uniqueness under separability, a condition introduced in [19] and imposed recently in [17] to show solvability of the NMF problem by linear programming. We say that T is separable if there exists a permutation ? such that ?T = [M ; Ir ], where M ? {0, 1}m?r?r . Proposition 2. If T is separable, condition (4) holds and thus problem (1) has a unique solution. Uniqueness under generic random sampling. Both the negative example (6) as well as the positive result of Proposition 2 are associated with special matrices T . This raises the question whether uniqueness holds respectively fails for broader classes of binary matrices. In order to gain insight into this question, we consider random T with i.i.d. entries from a Bernoulli distribution with parameter 21 and study the probability of the event {aff(T ) ? {0, 1}m = {T:,1 , . . . , T:,r }}. This question has essentially been studied in combinatorics [23], with further improvements in [24]. The results therein rely crucially on Littlewood-Offord theory (see Section 2.4 below). Theorem 1. Let T be a random m ? r-matrix whose entries are drawn i.i.d. from {0, 1} with probability 12 . Then, there is a constant C so that if r ? m ? C,    m  m   r 3 3 P aff(T )?{0, 1}m = {T:,1, . . . , T:,r ? 1?(1+o(1)) 4 ? + o(1) as m ? ?. 3 4 4 Theorem 1 suggests a positive answer to the question of uniqueness posed above. For m large enough and r small compared to m (in fact, following [24] one may conjecture that Theorem 1 holds with C = 1), the probability that the affine hull of r vertices of [0, 1]m selected uniformly at random contains some other vertex is exponentially small in the dimension m. We have empirical evidence that the result of Theorem 1 continues to hold if the entries of T are drawn from a Bernoulli distribution with parameter in (0, 1) sufficiently far away from the boundary points (cf. supplement). As a byproduct, these results imply that also the NMF variant of our matrix factorization problem (5) can in most cases be reduced to identifying a set of r vertices of [0, 1]m (cf. Corollary 1). 4 2.4 Speeding up Algorithm 1. In Algorithm 1, an m ? 2r?1 matrix Tb of potential vertices is formed (Step 3). We have discussed the case (6) where all candidates must indeed be vertices, in which case it seems to be impossible to reduce the computational cost of O((m ? r)r2r?1 ), which becomes significant once m is in the thousands and r ? 25. On the positive side, Theorem 1 indicates that for many instances of T , only r out of 2r?1 candidates are in fact vertices. In that case, noting that columns of Tb cannot be vertices if a single coordinate is not in {0, 1} (and that the vast majority of columns of Tb must have one such coordinate), it is computationally more favourable to incrementally compute subsets of rows of Tb and then to discard already those columns with coordinates not in {0, 1}. We have observed empirically that this scheme rapidly reduces the candidate set ? already checking a single row of Tb eliminates a substantial portion (see Figure 2). Littlewood-Offord theory. Theoretical underpinning for the last observation can be obtained from a result in combinatorics, the Littlewood-Offord (L-O)-lemma. Various extensions of that result have been developed until recently, see the survey [25]. We here cite the L-O-lemma in its basic form. Theorem 2. [20] Let a1 , . . . , a? ? R \ {0} and y ? R.  P? ? (i) {b ? {0, 1}? : i=1 ai bi = y} ? ??/2? . P? (ii) If |ai | ? 1, i = 1, . . . , ?, {b ? {0, 1}? : i=1 ai bi ? (y, y + 1)} ?  . ? ??/2? The two parts of Theorem 2 are referred to as discrete respectively continuous L-O lemma. The discrete L-O lemma provides an upper bound on the number of {0, 1}-vectors whose weighted sum with given weights {ai }?i=1 is equal to some given number y, whereas the stronger continuous version, under a more stringent condition on the weights, upper bounds the number of {0, 1}-vectors whose weighted sum is contained in some interval (y, y + 1). In order to see the relation of Theorem 2 to Algorithm 1, let us re-inspect the third step of that algorithm. To obtain a reduction of candidates ? by checking a single row of Tb = Z(B (r?1) ?pR 1? / R (recall that coordinates 2r?1 )+p12r?1 , pick i ? r?1 in R do not need to be checked, cf. (3)) and u ? {1, . . . , 2 } arbitrary. The u-th candidate can be a vertex only if Tbi,u ? {0, 1}. The condition Tbi,u = 0 can be written as Zi,: B (r?1) = Zi,: pR ? pi . |{z} | :,u {z } | {z } {ak }rk=1 (7) =y =b A similar reasoning applies when setting Tbi,u = 1. Provided the entries of Zi,: = 0, the  none ofr?1 r?1 discrete L-O lemma implies that there are at most 2 ?(r?1)/2? out of 2 candidates for which the  r?1 r?1 i-th coordinate is in {0, 1}. This yields a reduction of the candidate set by 2 ?(r?1)/2? /2 =   1 O ?r?1 . Admittedly, this reduction may appear insignificant given the total number of candidates to be checked. The reduction achieved empirically (cf. Figure 2) is typically larger. Stronger reductions have been proven under additional assumptions on the weights {ai }?i=1 : e.g. for distinct weights, one obtains a reduction of O((r ? 1)?3/2 ) [25]. Furthermore, when picking successively d rows of Tb and if one assumes that each row yields a reduction according to the discrete L-O lemma, one would obtain the reduction (r ? 1)?d/2 so that d = r ? 1 would suffice to identify all vertices provided r ? 4. Evidence for the rate (r ? 1)?d/2 can be found in [26]. This indicates a reduction in complexity of Algorithm 1 from O((m ? r)r2r?1 ) to O(r2 2r?1 ). Achieving further speed-up with integer linear programming. The continuous L-O lemma (part (ii) of Theorem 2) combined with the derivation leading to (7) allows us to tackle even the case r = 80 (280 ? 1024 ). In view of the continuous L-O lemma, a reduction in the number of candidates can still be achieved if the requirement is weakened to Tbi,u ? [0, 1]. According to (7) the candidates satisfying the relaxed constraint for the i-th coordinate can be obtained from the feasibility problem find b ? {0, 1}r?1 subject to 0 ? Zi,: (b ? pR ) + pi ? 1, (8) which is an integer linear program that can be solved e.g. by CPLEX. The L-O- theory suggests that the branch-bound strategy employed therein is likely to be successful. With the help of CPLEX, it is affordable to solve problem (8) with all m ? r + 1 constraints (one for each of the rows of Tb to be checked) imposed simultaneously. We always recovered directly the underlying vertices in our experiments and only these, without the need to prune the solution pool (which could be achieved by Algorithm 1, replacing the 2r?1 candidates by a potentially much smaller solution pool). 5 Speed?up achieved by cplex (m = 1000) 3 r=8, p=0.02 r=8, p=0.1 r=8, p=0.5 r=16, p=0.02 r=16, p=0.1 r=16, p=0.5 r=24, p=0.02 r=24, p=0.1 r=24, p=0.5 20 15 10 log10(CPU time) in seconds Number of Vertices (log2) Maximum number of remaining vertices (out of 2(r?1)) over 100 trials 25 5 0 0 1 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 Coordinates checked 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 ?0.5 10 500 20 30 40 50 alg1,p=0.5 alg1,p = 0.1 alg1,p = 0.9 cplex,p = 0.5 cplex,p = 0.1 cplex,p = 0.9 60 70 80 r Figure 2: Left: Speeding up the algorithm by checking single coordinates, remaining number of coordinates vs.# coordinates checked (m = 1000). Right: Speed up by CPLEX compared to Algorithm 1. For both plots, T is drawn entry-wise from a Bernoulli distribution with parameter p. 3 Approximate case In the sequel, we discuss an extension of our approach to handle the approximate case D ? T A with T and A as in (1). In particular, we have in mind the case of additive noise i.e. D = T A + E with kEkF small. While the basic concept of Algorithm 1 can be adopted, changes are necessary because D may have full rank min{m, n} and second aff(D) ? {0, 1}m = ?, i.e. the distances of aff(D) and the {T:,k }rk=1 may be strictly positive (but are at least assumed to be small). As disAlgorithm 3 F INDV ERTICES APPROXIMATE 1. Let p = D1n /n and compute P = [D:,1 ? p, . . . , D:,n ? p]. 2. Compute U (r?1) ? Rm?r?1 , the left singular vectors corresponding to the r ? 1 largest singular values of P . Select r ? 1 linearly independent rows R of U (r?1) , obtaining (r?1) UR,: ? Rr?1?r?1 . (r?1) ?1 3. Form Z = U (r?1) (U ) and Tb = Z(B (r?1) ? pR 1?r?1 ) + p1?r?1 . R,: 2 2 r?1 01 4. Compute Tb01 ? Rm?2 : for u = 1, . . . , 2r?1 , i = 1, . . . , m, set Tbi,u = I(Tbi,u > 12 ). 01 5. For u = 1, . . . , 2r?1 , set ?u = kTb:,u ? Tb:,u k2 . Order increasingly s.t. ?u1 ? . . . ? ?2r?1 . 01 01 6. Return T = [Tb:,u1 . . . Tb:,ur ] tinguished from the exact case, Algorithm 3 requires the number of components r to be specified in advance as it is typically the case in noisy matrix factorization problems. Moreover, the vector p subtracted from all columns of D in step 1 is chosen as the mean of the data points, which is in particular a reasonable choice if D is contaminated with additive noise distributed symmetrically around zero. The truncated SVD of step 2 achieves the desired dimension reduction and potentially reduces noise corresponding to small singular values that are discarded. The last change arises in step 5. While in the exact case, one identifies all columns of Tb that are in {0, 1}m, one instead only identifies columns close to {0, 1}m. Given the output of Algorithm 3, we solve the approximate matrix factorization problem via least squares, obtaining the right factor from minA kD ? T Ak2F . Refinements. Improved performance for higher noise levels can be achieved by running Algorithm 3 multiple times with different sets of rows selected in step 2, which yields candidate matrices {T (l) }sl=1 , and subsequently using T = argmin{T (l) } minA kD ? T (l) Ak2F , i.e. one picks the candidate yielding the best fit. Alternatively, we may form a candidate pool by merging the {T (l) }sl=1 and then use a backward elimination scheme, in which successively candidates are dropped that yield the smallest improvement in fitting D until r candidates are left. Apart from that, T returned by Algorithm 3 can be used for initializing the block optimization scheme of Algorithm 4 below. Algorithm 4 is akin to standard block coordinate descent schemes proposed in the matrix factorization literature, e.g. [27]. An important observation (step 3) is that optimization of T is separable along the rows of T , so that for small r, it is feasible to perform exhaustive search over all 2r possibilities (or to use CPLEX). However, Algorithm 4 is impractical as a stand-alone scheme, because without proper initialization, it may take many iterations to converge, with each single iteration being more expensive than Algorithm 3. When initialized with the output of the latter, however, we have observed convergence of the block scheme only after few steps. 6 Algorithm 4 Block optimization scheme for solving minT ?{0,1}m?r , A kD ? T Ak2F 1. Set k = 0 and set T (k) equal to a starting value. 2. A(k) ? argminA kD ? T (k) Ak2F and set k = k + 1. Pm (k) 2 3. T (k) ? argminT ?{0,1}m?r kD?T A(k) k2F = argmin{Ti,: ?{0,1}r }m k2 (9) i=1 kDi,: ?Ti,: A i=1 4. Alternate between steps 2 and 3. 4 Experiments In Section 4.1 we demonstrate with the help of synthetic data that the approach of Section 3 performs well on noisy datasets. In the second part, we present an application to a real dataset. 4.1 Synthetic data. Setup. We generate D = T ? A? + ?E, where the entries of T ? are drawn i.i.d. from {0, 1} with probability 0.5, the columns of A are drawn i.i.d. uniformly from the probability simplex and the entries of E are i.i.d. standard Gaussian. We let m = 1000, r = 10 and n = 2r and let the noise level ? vary along a grid starting from 0. Small sample sizes n as considered here yield more challenging problems and are motivated by the real world application of the next subsection. Evaluation. Each setup is run 20 times and we report averages over the following performance measures: the normalized Hamming distance kT ? ? T k2F /(m r) and the two RMSEs kT ? A? ? T AkF /(m n)1/2 and kT A ? DkF /(m n)1/2 , where (T, A) denotes the output of one of the following approaches that are compared. FindVertices: our approach in Section 3. oracle: we solve problem (9) with A(k) = A? . box: we run the block scheme of Algorithm 4, relaxing the integer constraint into a box constraint. Five random initializations are used and we take the result yielding the best fit, subsequently rounding the entries of T to fulfill P the {0, 1}-constraints and refitting A. quad pen: as box, but a (concave) quadratic penalty ? i,k Ti,k (1 ? Ti,k ) is added to push the entries of T towards {0, 1}. D.C. programming [28] is used for the block updates of T . RMSE(TA, T*A*),T0.5,r=10 0 0 0.05 alpha 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 0.1 |TA?T*A*| /sqrt(m*n) HotTopixx FindVertices 0.1 F 2 F |T?T*| /(m*r) 0.15 0.05 0 0 0.02 0.04 alpha 0.15 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.06 0.2 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.04 alpha 0.05 alpha 0.1 RMSE(TA, D),r=10 0.2 HotTopixx FindVertices 0.1 0 0 box quad pen oracle FindVertices 0.05 RMSE(TA, T*A*),r=10 Hamming(T,T*),r=10 0.2 0.05 alpha RMSE(TA, D),T0.5,r=10 0.2 box quad pen oracle FindVertices |TA?D|F/sqrt(m*n) 0.05 0.2 |TA?D|F/sqrt(m*n) 0.1 box quad pen oracle FindVertices F 2 F |T?T*| /(m*r) 0.15 |TA?T*A*| /sqrt(m*n) Hamming(T,T*),T0.5,r=10 0.2 0.06 0.15 HotTopixx FindVertices 0.1 0.05 0 0 0.02 0.04 alpha 0.06 Figure 3: Top: comparison against block schemes. Bottom: comparison against HOTTOPIXX. Left/Middle/Right: kT ? ? T k2F /(m r), kT ?A? ? T AkF /(m n)1/2 and kT A ? DkF /(m n)1/2 . Comparison to HOTTOPIXX [18]. HOTTOPIXX (HT) is a linear programming approach to NMF equipped with guarantees such as correctness in the exact and robustness in the non-exact case as long as T is (nearly) separable (cf. Section 2.3). HT does not require T to be binary, but applies to the generic NMF problem D ? T A, T ? Rm?r and A ? Rr?n + + . Since separability is crucial to the performance of HT, we restrict our comparison to separable T = [M ; Ir ], generating the entries of M i.i.d. from a Bernoulli distribution with parameter 0.5. For runtime reasons, we lower the dimension to m = 100. Apart from that, the experimental setup is as above. We 7 use an implementation of HT from [29]. We first pre-normalize D to have unit row sums as required by HT, and obtain A as first output. Given A, the non-negative least squares problem minT ?Rm?r kD ? T Ak2F is solved. The entries of T are then re-scaled to match the original scale + of D, and thresholding at 0.5 is applied to obtain a binary matrix. Finally, A is re-optimized by solving the above fitting problem with respect to A in place of T . In the noisy case, HT needs a tuning parameter to be specified that depends on the noise level, and we consider a grid of 12 values for that parameter. The range of the grid is chosen based on knowledge of the noise matrix E. For each run, we pick the parameter that yields best performance in favour of HT. Results. From Figure 3, we find that unlike the other approaches, box does not always recover T ? even if the noise level ? = 0. FindVertices outperforms box and quad pen throughout. For ? ? 0.06, its performance closely matches that of the oracle. In the separable case, our approach performs favourably as compared to HT, a natural benchmark in this setting. 4.2 Analysis of DNA methylation data. Background. Unmixing of DNA methylation profiles is a problem of high interest in cancer research. DNA methylation is a chemical modification of the DNA occurring at specific sites, so-called CpGs. DNA methylation affects gene expression and in turn various processes such as cellular differentiation. A site is either unmethylated (?0?) or methylated (?1?). DNA methylation microarrays allow one to measure the methylation level for thousands of sites. In the dataset considered here, the measurements D (the rows corresponding to sites, the columns to samples) result from a mixture of cell types. The methylation profiles of the latter are in {0, 1}m, whereas, depending on the mixture proportions associated with each sample, the entries of D take values in [0, 1]m . In other words, we have the model D ? T A, with T representing the methylation of the cell types and the columns of A being elements of the probability simplex. It is often of interest to recover the mixture proportions of the samples, because e.g. specific diseases, in particular cancer, can be associated with shifts in these proportions. The matrix T is frequently unknown, and determining it experimentally is costly. Without T , however, recovering the mixing matrix A is challenging, in particular since the number of samples in typical studies is small. Dataset. We consider the dataset studied in [9], with m = 500 CpG sites and n = 12 samples of blood cells composed of four major types (B-/T-cells, granulocytes, monocytes), i.e. r = 4. Ground truth is partially available: the proportions of the samples, denoted by A? , are known. estimated A 1 1 1 2 0.5 3 4 component component 1 2 0.5 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 sample 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 sample 0 |D ? T A|F / sqrt(m * n) A (ground truth) number of components vs error 0.2 FindVertices ground truth 0.15 0.1 2 3 4 5 components used 6 Figure 4: Left: Mixture proportions of the ground truth. Middle: mixture proportions as estimated by our method. Right: RMSEs kD ? T AkF /(m n)1/2 in dependency of r. Analysis. We apply our approach to obtain an approximate factorization D ? T A, T ? {0, 1}m?r , ? A ? Rr?n and A 1r = 1n . We first obtained T as outlined in Section 3, replacing {0, 1} by + {0.1, 0.9} in order to account for measurement noise in D that slightly pushes values towards 0.5. This can be accomodated re-scaling Tb01 in step 4 of Algorithm 3 by 0.8 and then adding 0.1. Given T , we solve the quadratic program A = argminA?Rr?n ,A? 1r =1n kD ? T Ak2F and compare A to + the ground truth A? . In order to judge the fit as well as the matrix T returned by our method, we compute T ? = argminT ?{0,1}m?r kD ? T A? k2F as in (9). We obtain 0.025 as average mean squared difference of T and T ? , which corresponds to an agreement of 96 percent. Figure 4 indicates at least a qualitative agreement of A? and A. In the rightmost plot, we compare the RMSEs of our approach for different choices of r relative to the RMSE of (T ? , A? ). The error curve flattens after r = 4, which suggests that with our approach, we can recover the correct number of cell types. 8 References [1] P. Paatero and U. Tapper. Positive matrix factorization: A non-negative factor model with optimal utilization of error estimates of data values. Environmetrics, 5:111?126, 1994. [2] D. Lee and H. Seung. Learning the parts of objects by nonnegative matrix factorization. Nature, 401:788? 791, 1999. [3] J. Ramsay and B. Silverman. Functional Data Analysis. Springer, New York, 2006. [4] F. Bach, J. Mairal, and J. Ponce. Convex Sparse Matrix Factorization. Technical report, ENS, Paris, 2008. [5] D. Witten, R. Tibshirani, and T. Hastie. A penalized matrix decomposition, with applications to sparse principal components and canonical correlation analysis. Biostatistics, 10:515?534, 2009. [6] A-J. van der Veen. Analytical Method for Blind Binary Signal Separation. IEEE Signal Processing, 45:1078?1082, 1997. [7] J. Liao, R. Boscolo, Y. Yang, L. Tran, C. Sabatti, and V. Roychowdhury. Network component analysis: reconstruction of regulatory signals in biological systems. PNAS, 100(26):15522?15527, 2003. [8] S. Tu, R. Chen, and L. Xu. Transcription Network Analysis by a Sparse Binary Factor Analysis Algorithm. Journal of Integrative Bioinformatics, 9:198, 2012. [9] E. Houseman et al. DNA methylation arrays as surrogate measures of cell mixture distribution. BMC Bioinformatics, 13:86, 2012. [10] A. Banerjee, C. Krumpelman, J. Ghosh, S. Basu, and R. Mooney. Model-based overlapping clustering. In KDD, 2005. [11] E. Segal, A. Battle, and D. Koller. Decomposing gene expression into cellular processes. 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When does non-negative matrix factorization give a correct decomposition into parts? In NIPS, 2003. [20] P. Erd?os. On a lemma of Littlewood and Offord. Bull. Amer. Math. Soc, 51:898?902, 1951. [21] M. Gu and S. Eisenstat. Efficient algorithms for computing a strong rank-revealing QR factorization. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 17:848?869, 1996. [22] G. Golub and C. Van Loan. Matrix Computations. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996. [23] A. Odlyzko. On Subspaces Spanned by Random Selections of ?1 vectors. Journal of Combinatorial Theory A, 47:124?133, 1988. [24] J. Kahn, J. Komlos, and E. Szemeredi. On the Probability that a ?1 matrix is singular. Journal of the American Mathematical Society, 8:223?240, 1995. [25] H. Nguyen and V. Vu. Small ball probability, Inverse theorems, and applications. arXiv:1301.0019. [26] T. Tao and V. Vu. The Littlewoord-Offord problem in high-dimensions and a conjecture of Frankl and F?uredi. Combinatorica, 32:363?372, 2012. [27] C.-J. Lin. Projected gradient methods for non-negative matrix factorization. Neural Computation, 19:2756?2779, 2007. [28] P. Tao and L. An. Convex analysis approach to D.C. programming: theory, algorithms and applications. Acta Mathematica Vietnamica, pages 289?355, 1997. [29] https://sites.google.com/site/nicolasgillis/publications. 9
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On the Complexity and Approximation of Binary Evidence in Lifted Inference Guy Van den Broeck and Adnan Darwiche Computer Science Department University of California, Los Angeles {guyvdb,darwiche}@cs.ucla.edu Abstract Lifted inference algorithms exploit symmetries in probabilistic models to speed up inference. They show impressive performance when calculating unconditional probabilities in relational models, but often resort to non-lifted inference when computing conditional probabilities. The reason is that conditioning on evidence breaks many of the model?s symmetries, which can preempt standard lifting techniques. Recent theoretical results show, for example, that conditioning on evidence which corresponds to binary relations is #P-hard, suggesting that no lifting is to be expected in the worst case. In this paper, we balance this negative result by identifying the Boolean rank of the evidence as a key parameter for characterizing the complexity of conditioning in lifted inference. In particular, we show that conditioning on binary evidence with bounded Boolean rank is efficient. This opens up the possibility of approximating evidence by a low-rank Boolean matrix factorization, which we investigate both theoretically and empirically. 1 Introduction Statistical relational models are capable of representing both probabilistic dependencies and relational structure [1, 2]. Due to their first-order expressivity, they concisely represent probability distributions over a large number of propositional random variables, causing inference in these models to quickly become intractable. Lifted inference algorithms [3] attempt to overcome this problem by exploiting symmetries found in the relational structure of the model. In the absence of evidence, exact lifted inference algorithms can work well. For large classes of statistical relational models [4], they perform inference that is polynomial in the number of objects in the model [5], and are therein exponentially faster than classical inference algorithms. When conditioning a query on a set of evidence literals, however, these lifted algorithms lose their advantage over classical ones. The intuitive reason is that evidence breaks the symmetries in the model. The technical reason is that these algorithms perform an operation called shattering, which ends up reducing the first-order model to a propositional one. This issue is implicitly reflected in the experiment sections of exact lifted inference papers. Most report on experiments without evidence. Examples include publications on FOVE [3, 6, 7] and WFOMC [8, 5]. Others found ways to efficiently deal with evidence on only unary predicates. They perform experiments without evidence on binary or higher-arity relations. There are examples for FOVE [9, 10], WFOMC [11], PTP [12] and CP [13]. This evidence problem has largely been ignored in the exact lifted inference literature, until recently, when Bui et al. [10] and Van den Broeck and Davis [11] showed that conditioning on unary evidence is tractable. More precisely, conditioning on unary evidence is polynomial in the size of evidence. This type of evidence expresses attributes of objects in the world, but not relations between them. Unfortunately, Van den Broeck and Davis [11] also showed that this tractability does not extend to 1 evidence on binary relations, for which conditioning on evidence is #P-hard. Even if conditioning is hard in general, its complexity should depend on properties of the specific relation that is conditioned on. It is clear that some binary evidence is easy to condition on, even if it talks about a large number of objects, for example when all atoms are true (?X, Y p(X, Y )) or false (?X, Y ? p(X, Y )). As our first main contribution, we formalize this intuition and characterize the complexity of conditioning more precisely in terms of the Boolean rank of the evidence. We show that it is a measure of how much lifting is possible, and that one can efficiently condition on large amounts of evidence, provided that its Boolean rank is bounded. Despite the limitations, useful applications of exact lifted inference were found by sidestepping the evidence problem. For example, in lifted generative learning [14], the most challenging task is to compute partition functions without evidence. Regardless, the lack of symmetries in real applications is often cited as a reason for rejecting the idea of lifted inference entirely (informally called the ?death sentence for lifted inference?). This problem has been avoided for too long, and as lifted inference gains maturity, solving it becomes paramount. As our second main contribution, we present a first general solution to the evidence problem. We propose to approximate evidence by an over-symmetric matrix, and will show that this can be achieved by minimizing Boolean rank. The need for approximating evidence is new and specific to lifted inference: in (undirected) probabilistic graphical models, more evidence typically makes inference easier. Practically, we will show that existing tools from the data mining community can be used for this low-rank Boolean matrix factorization task. The evidence problem is less pronounced in the approximate lifted inference literature. These algorithms often introduce approximations that lead to symmetries in their computation, even when there are no symmetries in the model. Also for approximate methods, however, the benefits of lifting will decrease with the amount of symmetry-breaking evidence (e.g., Kersting et al. [15]). We will show experimentally that over-symmetric evidence approximation is also a viable technique for approximate lifted inference. 2 Encoding Binary Relations in Unary Our analysis of conditioning is based on a reduction, turning evidence on a binary relation into evidence on several unary predicates. We first introduce some necessary background. 2.1 Background An atom p(t1 , . . . , tn ) consists of a predicate p /n of arity n followed by n arguments, which are either (lowercase) constants or (uppercase) logical variables. A literal is an atom a or its negation ?a. A formula combines atoms with logical connectives (e.g., ?, ?, ?). A formula is ground if it does not contain any logical variables. A possible world assigns a truth value to each ground atom. Statistical relational languages define a probability distribution over possible words, where ground atoms are individual random variables. Numerous languages have been proposed in recent years, and our analysis will apply to many, including MLNs [16], parfactors [3] and WFOMC problems [8]. Example 1. The following MLNs model the dependencies between web pages. A first, peer-to-peer model says that student web pages are more likely to link to other student pages. studentpage(X) ? linkto(X, Y ) ? studentpage(Y ) w It increases the probability of a world by a factor ew with every pair of pages X, Y that satisfies the formula. A second, hierarchical model says that professors are more likely to link to course pages. w profpage(X) ? linkto(X, Y ) ? coursepage(Y ) In this context, evidence e is a truth-value assignment to a set of ground atoms, and is often represented as a conjunction of literals. In unary evidence, atoms have one argument (e.g., studentpage(a)) while in binary evidence, they have two (e.g., linkto(a, b)). Without loss of generality, we assume full evidence on certain predicates (i.e., all their ground atoms are in e).1 We will sometimes represent unary evidence as a Boolean vector and binary evidence as a Boolean matrix. 1 Partial evidence on the relation p can be encoded as full evidence on predicates p0 and p1 by adding formulas ?X, Y p(X, Y ) ? p1 (X, Y ) and ?X, Y ? p(X, Y ) ? p0 (X, Y ) to the model. 2 Example 2. Evidence e = p(a, a) ? p(a, b) ? ? p(a, c) ? ? ? ? ? ? p(d, c) ? p(d, d) is represented by p(X,Y ) ? X=a P= ? ? ? ? X=b X=c X=d Y =a Y =b Y =c Y =d 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 ? ? ? ? ? We will look at computing conditional probabilities Pr(q | e) for single ground atoms q. Finally, we assume a representation language that can express universally quantified logical constraints. 2.2 Vector-Product Binary Evidence Certain binary relations can be represented by a pair of unary predicates. By adding the formula ?X, ?Y, p(X, Y ) ? q(X) ? r(Y ) (1) to our statistical relational model and conditioning on the q and r relations, we can condition on certain types of binary p relations. Assuming that we condition on the q and r predicates, adding this formula (as hard clauses) to the model does not change the probability distribution over the atoms in the original model. It is merely an indirect way of conditioning on the p relation. If we now represent these unary relations by vectors q and r, and the binary relation by the binary matrix P, the above technique allows us to condition on any relation P that can be factorized in the outer vector product P = q r| . Example 3. Consider the following outer vector factorization of the Boolean matrix P. P= ? 0 ?1 ?0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ? 0 1? 0? 1 = ? ? ? ?| 0 1 ?1? ?0? ?0? ?0? 1 1 In a model containing Formula 1, this factorization indicates that we can condition on the 16 binary evidence literals ? p(a, a) ? ? p(a, b) ? ? ? ? ? ? p(d, c) ? p(d, d) of P by conditioning on the the 8 unary literals ? q(a) ? q(b) ? ? q(c) ? q(d) ? r(a) ? ? r(b) ? ? r(c) ? r(d) represented by q and r. 2.3 Matrix-Product Binary Evidence This idea of encoding a binary relation in unary relations can be generalized to n pairs of unary relations, by adding the following formula to our model. ?X, ?Y, p(X, Y ) ? (q1 (X) ? r1 (Y )) ? (q2 (X) ? r2 (Y )) ? ? ? ? ? (qn (X) ? rn (Y )) (2) By conditioning on the qi and ri relations, we can now condition on a much richer set of binary p relations. The relations that can be expressed this way are all the matrices that can be represented by the sum of outer products (in Boolean algebra, where + is ? and 1 ? 1 = 1): P = q1 r|1 ? q2 r|2 ? ? ? ? ? qn r|n = Q R| (3) where the columns of Q and R are the qi and ri vectors respectively, and the matrix multiplication is performed in Boolean algebra, that is, W (Q R| )i,j = r Qi,r ? Rj,r Example 4. Consider the following P, its decomposition into a sum/disjunction of outer vector products, and the corresponding Boolean matrix multiplication. P= ? 1 ?1 ?0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 ? 0 1? 0? 1 = ? ? ? ?| ? ? ? ?| ? ? ? ?| 0 1 1 1 0 0 ?1? ?0? ?1? ?1? ?0? ?0? ?0? ?0? ? ?0? ?0? ? ?1? ?1? 1 1 0 0 0 0 = ? 0 ?1 ?0 1 1 1 0 0 ?? 0 1 0? ?0 1? ?0 0 1 1 1 0 0 ?| 0 0? 1? 0 This factorization shows that we can condition on the binary evidence literals of P (see Example 2) by conditioning on the unary literals e = [? q1 (a) ? q1 (b) ? ? q1 (c) ? q1 (d)] ? [r1 (a) ? ? r1 (b) ? ? r1 (c) ? r1 (d)] ? [q2 (a) ? q2 (b) ? ? q2 (c) ? ? q2 (d)] ? [r2 (a) ? r2 (b) ? ? r2 (c) ? ? r2 (d)] ? [? q3 (a) ? ? q3 (b) ? q3 (c) ? ? q3 (d)] ? [? r3 (a) ? ? r3 (b) ? r3 (c) ? ? r3 (d)] . 3 3 Boolean Matrix Factorization Matrix factorization (or decomposition) is a popular linear algebra tool. Some well-known instances are singular value decomposition and non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) [17, 18]. NMF factorizes into a product of non-negative matrices, which are more easily interpretable, and therefore attracted much attention for unsupervised learning and feature extraction. These factorizations all work with real-valued matrices. We instead consider Boolean-valued matrices, with only 0/1 entries. 3.1 Boolean Rank Factorizing a matrix P as Q R| in Boolean algebra is a known problem called Boolean Matrix Factorization (BMF) [19, 20]. BMF factorizes a (k ? l) matrix P into a (k ? n) matrix Q and a (l ? n) matrix R, where potentially n  k and n  l and we always have that n ? min(k, l). Any Boolean matrix can be factorized this way and the smallest number n for which it is possible is called the Boolean rank of the matrix. Unlike (textbook) real-valued rank, computing the Boolean rank is NP-hard and cannot be approximated unless P=NP [19]. The Boolean and real-valued rank are incomparable, and the Boolean rank can be exponentially smaller than the real-valued rank. Example 5. The factorization in Example 4 is a BMF with Boolean rank 3. It is only a decomposition in Boolean algebra and not over the real numbers. Indeed, the matrix product over the reals contains an incorrect value of 2: ? 0 ?1 ?0 1 1 1 0 0 ? ? 0 1 0? ?0 ? ? ? real 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 ?| 0 0? 1? 0 = ? 1 ?2 ?0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 ? 0 1? 0? 1 6= P Note that P is of full real-valued rank (having four non-zero singular values) and that its Boolean rank is lower than its real-valued rank. 3.2 Approximate Boolean Factorization Computing Boolean ranks is a theoretical problem. Because most real-world matrices will have nearly full rank (i.e., almost min(k, l)), applications of BMF look at approximate factorizations. The  goal is to find a pair of (small) Boolean matrices Qk?n and Rl?n such that Pk?l ? Qk?n R|l?n , or more specifically, to find matrices that optimize some objective that trades off approximation error and Boolean rank n. When n  k and n  l, this approximation extracts interesting structure and removes noise from the matrix. This has caused BMF to receive considerable attention in the data mining community recently, as a tool for analyzing high-dimensional data. It is used to find important and interpretable (i.e., Boolean) concepts in a data matrix. Unfortunately, the approximate BMF optimization problem is NP-hard as well, and inapproximable [20]. However, several algorithms have been proposed that work well in practice. Algorithms exist that find good approximations for fixed values of n [20], or when P is sparse [21]. BMF is related to other data mining tasks, such as biclustering [22] and tiling databases [23], whose algorithms could also be used for approximate BMF. In the context of social network analysis, BMF is related to stochastic block models [24] and their extensions, such as infinite relational models. 4 Complexity of Binary Evidence Our goal in this section is to provide a new complexity result for reasoning with binary evidence in the context of lifted inference. Our result can be thought of as a parametrized complexity result, similar to ones based on treewidth in the case of propositional inference. To state the new result, however, we must first define formally the computational task. We will also review the key complexity result that is known about this computation now (i.e., the one we will be improving on). Consider an MLN ? and let ?m contain a set of ground literals representing binary evidence. That is, for some binary predicate p(X, Y ), evidence ?m contains precisely one literal (positive or negative) for each grounding of predicate p(X, Y ). Here, m represents the number of objects that parameters X and Y may take.2 Therefore, evidence ?m must contain precisely m2 literals. 2 We assume without loss of generality that all logical variables range over the same set of objects. 4 Suppose now that Prm is the distribution induced by MLN ? over m objects, and q is a ground literal. Our analysis will apply to classes of models ? that are domain-liftable [4], which means that the complexity of computing Prm (q) without evidence is polynomial in m. One such class is the set of MLNs with two logical variables per formula [5]. Our task is then to compute the posterior probability Prm (q|em ), where em is a conjunction of the ground literals in binary evidence ?m . Moreover, our goal here is to characterize the complexity of this computation as a function of evidence size m. The following recent result provides a lower bound on the complexity of this computation [11]. Theorem 1. Suppose that evidence ?m is binary. Then there exists a domain-liftable MLN ? with a corresponding distribution Prm , and a posterior marginal Prm (q|em ) that cannot be computed by any algorithm whose complexity grows polynomially in evidence size m, unless P = N P . This is an analogue to results according to which, for example, the complexity of computing posterior probabilities in propositional graphical models is exponential in the worst case. Yet, for these models, the complexity of inference can be parametrized, allowing one to bound the complexity of inference on some models. Perhaps the best example of such a parametrized complexity is the one based on treewidth, which can be thought of as a measure of the model?s sparsity (or tree-likeness). In this case, inference can be shown to be linear in the size of the model and exponential only in its treewidth. Hence, this parametrized complexity result allows us to state that inference can be done efficiently on models with bounded treewidth. We now provide a similar parameterized complexity result, but for evidence in lifted inference. In this case, the parameter we use to characterize complexity is that of Boolean rank. Theorem 2. Suppose that evidence ?m is binary and has a bounded Boolean rank. Then for every domain-liftable MLN ? and corresponding distribution Prm , the complexity of computing posterior marginal Prm (q|em ) grows polynomially in evidence size m. The proof of this theorem is based on the reduction from binary to unary evidence, which is described in Section 2. In particular, our reduction first extends the MLN ? with Formula 2, leading to the new MLN ?0 and new pairs of unary predicates qi and ri . This does not change the domain-liftability of ?0 , as Formula 2 is itself liftable. We then replace binary evidence ?m by unary evidence ?0 . That is, the ground literals of the binary predicate p are replaced by ground literals of the unary predicates qi and ri (see Example 4). This unary evidence is obtained by Boolean matrix factorization. As the matrix size in our reduction is m2 , the following Lemma implies that the first step of our reduction is polynomial in m for bounded rank evidence. Lemma 3 (Miettinen [25]). The complexity of Boolean matrix factorization for matrices with bounded Boolean rank is polynomial in their size. The main observation in our reduction is that Formula 2 has size n, which is the Boolean rank of the given binary evidence. Hence, when the Boolean rank n is bounded by a constant, the size of the extended MLN ?0 is independent of the evidence size and is proportional to the size of the original MLN ?. We have now reduced inference on MLN ? and binary evidence ?m into inference on an extended MLN ?0 and unary evidence ?0 . The second observation behind the proof is the following. Lemma 4 (Van den Broeck and Davis [11], Van den Broeck [26]). Suppose that evidence ?m is unary. Then for every domain-liftable MLN ? and corresponding distribution Prm , the complexity of computing posterior marginal Prm (q|em ) grows polynomially in evidence size m. Hence, computing posterior probabilities can be done in time which is polynomial in the size of unary evidence m, which completes our proof. We can now identify additional similarities between treewidth and Boolean rank. Exact inference algorithms for probabilistic graphical models typically perform two steps, namely to (a) compute a tree decomposition of the graphical model (or a corresponding variable order), and (b) perform inference that is polynomial in the size of the decomposition, but potentially exponential in its (tree)width. The analogous steps for conditioning are to (a) perform a BMF, and (b) perform inference that is polynomial in the size of the BMF, but potentially exponential in its rank. The (a) steps are both NP-hard, yet are efficient assuming bounded treewidth [27] or bounded Boolean rank (Lemma 3). Whereas 5 treewidth is a measure of tree-likeness and sparsity of the graphical model, Boolean rank seems to be a fundamentally different property, more related to the presence of symmetries in evidence. 5 Over-Symmetric Evidence Approximation Theorem 2 opens up many new possibilities. Even for evidence with high Boolean rank, it is possible to find a low-rank approximate BMF of the evidence, as is commonly done for other data mining and machine learning problems. Algorithms already exist for solving this task (cf. Section 3). Example 6. The evidence matrix from Example 4 has Boolean rank three. Dropping the third pair of vectors reduces the Boolean rank to two. ? 1 ?1 ?0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 ? 0 1? 0? 1 ? ? ? ? ?| ? ? ? ?| @? ? ? ?| ? 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 @0? ?0? ? ?1? ?0? ?1? ?1? ?1 ? ? = @ ?1? ?1? ?0? ?0? ?0? ?0? ?0 @ 0@ 0 0 1 1 0 1 @ ?? 1 1 1? ?0 0? ?0 0 1 ?| 1 1? 0? 0 = ? 1 ?1 ?0 1 1 1 0 0 ? 0 0 0 1? 0 0? 0 1 This factorization is approximate, as it flips the evidence for atom p(c, c) from true to false (represented by the bold 0). By paying this price, the evidence has more symmetries, and we can condition on the binary relation by introducing only two instead of three new pairs (qi , ri ) of unary predicates. Low-rank approximate BMF is an instance of a more general idea; that of over-symmetric evidence approximation. This means that when we want to compute Pr(q | e), we approximate it by computing Pr(q | e0 ) instead, with evidence e0 that permits more efficient inference. In this case, it is more efficient because it maintains more symmetries of the model and permits more lifting. Because all lifted inference algorithms, exact or approximate, exploit symmetries, we expect this general idea, and low-rank approximate BMF in particular, to improve the performance of any lifted inference algorithm. Having a small amount of incorrect evidence in the approximation need not be a problem. As these literals are not covered by the first most important vector pairs, they can be considered as noise in the original matrix. Hence, a low-rank approximation may actually improve the performance of, for example, a lifted collective classification algorithm. On the other hand, the approximation made in Example 6 may not be desirable if we are querying attributes of the constant c, and we may prefer to approximate other areas of the evidence matrix instead. There are many challenges in finding appropriate evidence approximations, which makes the task all the more interesting. 6 Empirical Evaluation To complement the theoretical analysis from the previous sections, we will now report on experiments that investigate the following practical questions. Q1 How well can we approximate a real-world relational data set by a low-rank Boolean matrix? Q2 Is Boolean rank a good indicator of the complexity of inference, as suggested by Theorem 2? Q3 Is over-symmetric evidence approximation a viable technique for approximate lifted inference? To answer Q1, we compute approximations of the linkto binary relation in the WebKB data set using the ASSO algorithm for approximate BMF [20]. The WebKB data set consists of web pages from the computer science departments of four universities [28]. The data has information about words that appear on pages, labels of pages and links between web pages (linkto relation). There are four folds, one for each university. The exact evidence matrix for the linkto relation ranges in size from 861 by 861 to 1240 by 1240. Its real-valued rank ranges from 384 to 503. Performing a BMF approximation in this domain adds or removes hyperlinks between web pages, so that more web pages can be grouped together that behave similarly. Figure 1 plots the approximation error for increasing Boolean ranks, measured as the number of incorrect evidence literals. The error goes down quickly for low rank, and is reduced by half after Boolean rank 70 to 80, even though the matrix dimensions and real-valued rank are much higher. Note that these evidence matrices contain around a million entries, and are sparse. Hence, these approximations correctly label 99.7% to 99.95% of the atoms. 6 Error Rank n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 cornell texas washington wisconsin 3000 2000 1000 0 0 20 40 60 80 Boolean rank 100 120 Circuit Size (b) 24 50 129 371 1098 3191 9571 Figure 2: First-order NNF circuit size (number of nodes) for increasing Boolean rank n, and (a) the peer to peer and (b) hierarchical model. Figure 1: Approximation BMF error in terms of the number of incorrect literals for the WebKB linkto relation. 1 Relative KLD 1 Relative KLD Circuit Size (a) 18 58 160 1873 > 2129 ? ? 0.1 0 200000 400000 Iteration 600000 0.1 0 (a) Texas Data Set 200000 400000 Iteration 600000 (b) Wisconsin Data Set Figure 3: KLD of LMCMC on different BMF approximations, relative to the KLD of vanilla MCMC on the same approximation. From top to bottom, the lines represent exact evidence (blue), and approximations (red) of rank 150, 100, 75, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2, and 1. To answer Q2, we perform two sets of experiments. Firstly, we look at exact lifted inference and investigate the influence of adding Formula 2 to the ?peer-to-peer? and ?hierarchical? MLNs from Example 1. The goals is to condition on linkto relations with increasing rank n. These models are compiled using the WFOMC [8] algorithm into first-order NNF circuits, which allow for exact domain-lifted inference (c.f., Lemma 4). Table 2 shows the sizes of these circuits. As expected, circuit sizes grow exponentially with n. Evidence breaks more symmetries in the peer-to-peer model than in the hierarchical model, causing the circuit size to increase more quickly with Boolean rank. Since the connection between rank and exact inference is obvious from Theorem 2, the more interesting question in Q2 is whether Boolean rank is indicative of the complexity of approximate lifted inference as well. Therefore, we investigate its influence on the Lifted MCMC algorithm (LMCMC) [29] with Rao-Blackwellized probability estimation [30]. LMCMC interleaves standard MCMC steps (here Gibbs sampling) with jumps to states that are symmetric in the graphical model, in order to speed up mixing of the chain. We run LMCMC on the WebKB MLN of Davis and Domingos [31], which has 333 first-order formulas and over 1 million random variables. It classifies web pages into 6 categories, based on their link structure and the 50 most predictive words they contain. We learn its parameters with the Alchemy package and obtain evidence sets of varying Boolean rank from the factorizations of Figure 1.3 . For these, we run both vanilla and lifted MCMC, and measure the KL divergence (KLD) between the marginal distribution at each iteration4 , and a ground truth obtained from 3 million iterations on the corresponding evidence set. Figure 3 plots the KLD of LMCMC divided by the KLD of MCMC. It shows that the improvement of LMCMC over MCMC goes down with Boolean rank, answering Q2 positively. To answer Q3, we look at the KLD between different evidence approximations Pr(. | e0n ) of rank n, and the true marginals Pr(. | e) conditioned on exact evidence. As this requires a good estimate of Pr(. | e), we make our learned WebKB model more tractable by removing formulas about word content. For two approximations e0a and e0b such that rank a < b, we expect LMCMC to converge faster to Pr(. | e0a ) than to Pr(. | e0b ), as suggested by Figure 3. However, because Pr(. | e0a ) is a more crude approximation of Pr(. | e) than Pr(. | e0b ) is, the KLD at convergence should be worse for a 3 4 When synthetically generating evidence of these ranks, results are comparable. Runtime per iteration is comparable for both algorithms. BMF runtime is negligible. 7 1 Ground MCMC Lifted MCMC Lifted MCMC (Rank 2) Lifted MCMC (Rank 10) KL Divergence KL Divergence 1 0.1 0 20000 40000 60000 Iteration 80000 Ground MCMC Lifted MCMC Lifted MCMC (Rank 75) Lifted MCMC (Rank 150) 0.1 0 100000 (a) Cornell, Ranks 2 and 10 100000 150000 Iteration 200000 250000 (b) Cornell, Ranks 75 and 150 1 1 Ground MCMC Lifted MCMC Lifted MCMC (Rank 75) Lifted MCMC (Rank 150) KL Divergence KL Divergence 50000 0.1 0 50000 100000 150000 Iteration 200000 250000 Ground MCMC Lifted MCMC Lifted MCMC (Rank 75) Lifted MCMC (Rank 150) 0.1 0 (c) Washington, Ranks 75 and 150 50000 100000 150000 Iteration 200000 250000 (d) Wisconsin, Ranks 75 and 150 Figure 4: Error for different low-rank approximations of WebKB, in KLD from true marginals. than for b. Hence, we expect to see a trade-off, where the lowest ranks are optimal in the beginning, higher ranks become optimal later one, and the exact model is optimal at convergence. Figure 4 shows exactly that, for a representative sample of ranks and data sets. In Figure 4(a), rank 2 and 10 outperform LMCMC with the exact evidence at first. Exact evidence overtakes rank 2 after 40k iterations, and rank 10 after 50k. After 80k iterations, even non-lifted MCMC outperforms these crude approximations. Figure 4(b) shows the other side of the spectrum, where a rank 75 and 150 approximation are overtaken at iterations 90k and 125k. Figure 4(c) is representative of other datasets. Note here that at around iteration 50k, rank 75 in turn outperforms the rank 150 approximation, which has fewer symmetries and does not permit as much lifting. Finally, Figure 4(d) shows the ideal case for low-rank approximation. This is the largest dataset, and therefore the most challenging inference task. Here, LMCMC on e converges slowly compared to its approximations e0 , and e0 results in almost perfect marginals. The crossover point where exact inference outperforms the approximation is never reached in practice. This answers Q3 positively. 7 Conclusions We presented two main results. The first is a more precise complexity characterization of conditioning on binary evidence, in terms of its Boolean rank. The second is a technique to approximate binary evidence by a low-rank Boolean matrix factorization. This is a first type of over-symmetric evidence approximation that can speed up lifted inference. We showed empirically that low-rank BMF speeds up approximate inference, leading to improved approximations. For future work, we want to evaluate the practical implications of the theory developed for other lifted inference algorithms, such as lifted BP, and look at the performance of over-symmetric evidence approximation on machine learning tasks such as collective classification. There are many remaining challenges in finding good evidence-approximation schemes, including ones that are query-specific (cf. de Salvo Braz et al. [32]) or that incrementally run inference to find better approximations (cf. Kersting et al. [33]). Furthermore, we want to investigate other subsets of binary relations for which conditioning could be efficient, in particular functional relations p(X, Y ), where each X has at most a limited number of associated Y values. Acknowledgments We thank Pauli Miettinen, Mathias Niepert, and Jilles Vreeken for helpful suggestions. This work was supported by ONR grant #N00014-12-1-0423, NSF grant #IIS-1118122, NSF grant #IIS0916161, and the Research Foundation-Flanders (FWO-Vlaanderen). 8 References [1] L. Getoor and B. Taskar, editors. An Introduction to Statistical Relational Learning. MIT Press, 2007. [2] Luc De Raedt, Paolo Frasconi, Kristian Kersting, and Stephen Muggleton, editors. 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Unsupervised Spectral Learning of FSTs Rapha?el Bailly Xavier Carreras Ariadna Quattoni Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya Barcelona, 08034 rbailly,carreras,[email protected] Abstract Finite-State Transducers (FST) are a standard tool for modeling paired inputoutput sequences and are used in numerous applications, ranging from computational biology to natural language processing. Recently Balle et al. [4] presented a spectral algorithm for learning FST from samples of aligned input-output sequences. In this paper we address the more realistic, yet challenging setting where the alignments are unknown to the learning algorithm. We frame FST learning as finding a low rank Hankel matrix satisfying constraints derived from observable statistics. Under this formulation, we provide identifiability results for FST distributions. Then, following previous work on rank minimization, we propose a regularized convex relaxation of this objective which is based on minimizing a nuclear norm penalty subject to linear constraints and can be solved efficiently. 1 Introduction This paper addresses the problem of learning probability distributions over pairs of input-output sequences, also known as transduction problem. A pair of sequences is made of an input sequence, built from an input alphabet, and an output sequence, built from an output alphabet. Finite State Transducers (FST) are one of the main probabilistic tools used to model such distributions and have been used in numerous applications ranging from computational biology to natural language processing. A variety of algorithms for learning FST have been proposed in the literature, most of them are based on EM optimizations [9, 11] or grammatical inference techniques [8, 6]. In essence, an FST can be regarded as an HMM that generates bi-symbols of combined input-output symbols. The input and output symbols may be generated jointly or independently conditioned on the previous observations. A particular generation pattern constitutes what we call an alignment. GAATTCAG| | || | GGA-TC-GA GAATTCAG| || | | GGAT-C-GA GAATTC-AG | | || | GGA-TCGA- GAATTC-AG | || | | GGAT-CGA- To be able to handle different alignments, a special empty symbol ? is added to the input and output alphabets. With this enlarged set of bi-symbols, the model is able to generate an input symbol (resp. an output symbol) without an output symbol (resp. input symbol). These special bi-symbols will be represented by the pair x? (resp. ?y ). As an example, the first alignment above will correspond G? AAT T C AG? A? AT T C AG? to the two possible representations G G ? G A ? T C ? G A and G G ? A ? T C ? G A . Under this model the probability of observing a pair of un-aligned input-output sequences is obtained by integrating over all possible alignments. Recently, following a recent trend of work on spectral learning algorithms for finite state machines [14, 2, 17, 18, 7, 16, 10, 5], Balle et al. [4] presented an algorithm for learning FST where the input to the algorithm are samples of aligned input-output sequences. As with most spectral methods the core idea of this algorithm is to exploit low-rank decompositions of some Hankel matrix representing 1 the distribution of aligned sequences. To estimate this Hankel matrix it is assumed that the algorithm can sample aligned sequences, i.e. it can directly observe sequences of enlarged bi-symbols. While the problem of learning FST from fully aligned sequences (what we sometimes refer to as supervised learning) has been solved, the problem of deriving an unsupervised spectral method that can be trained from samples of input-output sequences alone (i.e. where the alignment is hidden) remains open. This setting is significantly more difficult due to the fact that we must deal with two sets of hidden variables: the states and the alignments. In this paper we address this unsupervised setting and present a spectral algorithm that can approximate the distribution of paired sequences generated by an FST without having access to aligned sequences. To the best of our knowledge this is the first spectral algorithm for this problem. The main challenge in the unsupervised setting is that since the alignment information is not available, the Hankel matrices (as in [4]) can no longer be directly estimated from observable statistics. However, a key observation is that we can nevertheless compute observable statistics that can constraint the coefficients of the Hankel matrix. This is because the probability of observing a pair of un-aligned input-output sequences (i.e. an observable statistic) is computed by summing over all possible alignments; i.e. by summing entries of the hidden Hankel matrix. The main idea of our algorithm is to exploit these constraints and find a Hankel matrix (from which we can directly recover the model) which both agrees on the observed statistics and has a low-rank matrix factorization. In brief, our main contribution is to show that an FST can be approximated by solving an optimization which is based on finding a low-rank matrix satisfying a set of constraints derived from observable statistics and Hankel structure. We provide sample complexity bounds and some identifiability results for this optimization that show that, theoretically, the rank and the parameters of an FST distribution can be identified. Following previous work on rank minimization, we propose a regularized convex relaxation of the proposed objective which is based on minimizing a nuclear norm penalty subject to linear constraints. The proposed relaxation balances a trade-off between model complexity (measured by the nuclear norm penalty) and fitting the observed statistics. Synthetic experiments show that the performance of our unsupervised algorithm efficiently approximates that of a supervised method trained from fully aligned sequences. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 gives preliminaries on FST and spectral learning methods, and establishes that an FST can be induced from a Hankel matrix of observable aligned statistics. Section 3 presents a generalized form of Hankel matrices for FST that allows to express observation constraints efficiently. One can not observe generalized Hankel matrices without assumming access to aligned samples. To solve this problem, Section 4 formulates finding the Hankel matrix of an FST from unaligned samples as rank minimization problem. This section also presents the main theoretical results of the method, as well as a convex relaxation of the rank minimization problem. Section 5 presents results on synthetic data and Section 6 concludes. 2 2.1 Preliminaries Finite-State Transducers Definition 1. A Finite-State Transducer (FST) of rank d is given by: ? alphabets ?+ = {x1 , . . . , xp } (input), ?? = {y1 , . . . , yq } (output) ? ?1 ? Rd , ?? ? Rd ? ?x ? ?+ ? {?}, ?y ? ?? ? {?}, a matrix Mxy ? Rd?d , with M?? = 0 Definition 2. Let s be an input sequence, and let t be an output sequence. An alignment of (s, t) is given by a sequence of pairs xy11 . . . xynn such that the sequence obtained from x1 . . . xn (resp. y1 . . . yn ) by removing the empty symbols ? equals s (resp. t). Definition 3. The set of alignments for a pair of sequences (s, t) is denoted [s, t]. Definition 4. Let ? = {?+ ? {?}} ? {?? ? {?}}. The set of aligned sequences is ?? . The empty string is denoted ?. 2 Definition 5. Let T be an FST, and let w = xy11 . . . xynn be an aligned sequence. Then the value of w for the model T is given by: rT (w) = ?1? Mxy 1 ?Mxynn ? ?? 1 Definition 6. Let (s, t) be an i/o (input/output) sequence. Then the value for (s, t) computed by an FST T is given by the sum of the values for all alignments: rT ((s, t)) = ? x1 xn y1 ...yn ?[s,t] rT (xy11 . . . xynn ) A more complete description of FST can be found in [15]. 2.2 Computing with an FST In order to compute the value of a pair of sequences (s, t), one needs to sum over all possible alignments, which is generally exponential in the length of s and t. Standard techniques (e.g. the edit distance algorithm) can be applied in order to compute such a value in polynomial time. Proposition 1. Let T be an FST, s1?n ? ??+ , t1?m ? ??? . The forward vector is defined by: F0,j = ?1? M?t ?M?t , Fi,0 = ?1? Ms1 ?Msi , Fi,j = Fi?1,j Msi + Fi,j?1 M?t + Fi?1,j?1 Msi 1 ? j ? ? tj j It is then possible to compute rT ((s, t)) = Fn,m ?? in O(d2 ?s??t?). The sum of rT over all possible values rT (?? ) = ?s??+ ,t??? rT ((s, t)) can be computed with the formula rT (?? ) = ?1? [Id ? M ]?1 ?? where M = ?x??+ ?{?},y??? ?{?} Mxy . Example 1. Let us consider a particular subclass of FST: ?? = ?+ = {0, 1}, where M01 = M10 = M0? = M?1 = 0. 00 0 1 ? 0 0 0 ?1 = ( 0 0 0 ? 1 1 1 ?? = ( 1 ) 0 M1? = ( 1/4 ) 0 1/3 0 M0 = ( 0 0 0 0 ) 1/6 1/4 ) 0 M?0 = ( 1/6 0 M1 = ( 1 0 1/2 0 ) 1/3 0 ) 0 The FST A satisfies the constraints. Let us draw all the paths for the i/o sequence (01, 001). The dashed red edges are discarded because of the constraints. Thus, there are only two different non-zero paths, corresponding to 00 ?0 11 (in green) and ?0 00 11 (in blue). Let us consider the model A which satisfies the constraints above. One has rA (00 ?0 11 ) = 1/96, rA (?0 00 11 ) = 1/192 and, as those two aligned sequences are the only possible alignments for (01, 001), one has rA ((01, 001)) = 1/64. It is possible to check that rA (?? ) = 1, thus the model computes a probability distribution. 2.3 Hankel Matrices Let us recall some basic definitions and properties. Let ? be an alphabet, U ? ?? a set of prefixes, V ? ?? a set of suffixes. U is said to be prefix-closed if uv ? U ? u ? U . V is said to be suffix-closed if uv ? V ? v ? V . Let us denote U ? the set U ? {uxy ?u ? U, xy ? ?}. Let us denote ?V the set V ? {xy v?v ? V, xy ? ?}. A Hankel matrix on U and V is a matrix with rows corresponding to elements u ? U and columns corresponding to v ? V , which satisfies uv = u? v ? ? H(u, v) = H(u? , v ? ). Definition 7. Let H a Hankel matrix for U ? and ?V . One supposes that ? ? U and ? ? V . One then defines the partial Hankel matrices defined for u ? U and ? V : H? (u, v) = H(u, v) , Hxy (u, v) = H(u, xy v) 3 , H1 (v) = H(?, v) , H? (u) = H(u, ?) The main result that we will be using is the following: Proposition 2. Let H a Hankel matrix for U ? and ?V . One supposes that U is prefix-closed, V is suffix-closed, and that rank(H? ) = rank(H). Then the WA defined by ?1? = H1? H?+ , ?? = H? , Mxy = Hxy H?+ computes a mapping f such that ?u ? U, ?v ? V, f (uv) = H? (u, v). We will not give a proof of this result, as a more general result is seen further. The rank equality comes from the fact that the WA defined above has the same rank as H? , and that the rank of a mapping f which satisfies f (uv) = H(u, v) is at least the rank of H. The following example shows that the prefix and suffix closeness are necessary conditions. Example 2. Let us consider the following Hankel over the set of prefixes U ? and the set of suffixes 3 3 ?V with U = {?, ab3 }, and V = {?, ab3 }. 3 ? ? 0 H? = a3 ( 0 b3 3 a b3 ? 0 ), 1/4 H a b = a3 b3 a4 b4 4 a ? ab ab3 b4 0 ? ?0 0 0 ?0 0 0 0 ? ? ? ? 0 0 1/4 1/4 ?, ? ? ? 0 0 1/4 1/4 ? a2 b2 H ? a2 b2 = a33 b a4 b4 ? 0 ? ? 0 ? ? 1/4 a3 b3 a4 b4 1/4 ? ? 1/4 1/4 ? ? 1/4 1/4 ? 0 One has ? ? U and ? ? V , and also rank(H? ) = rank(H) = 1, thus the computed WA is rank 1. 6 Such a WA cannot compute a mapping such that rT () = 0 and rT (ab6 ) = 1/4. The complete Hankel matrix has at least rank 7. 3 Inducing FST from Generalized Hankel Matrices Proposition 2 tells us that if we had access to certain sub-blocks of the Hankel matrix for aligned sequences we could recover the FST model. However, we do not have access to the hidden alignment information: we only have access to the statistics p(s, t), which we will call observations. One natural idea would be to search for a Hankel matrix that agrees with the observations. To do so, we introduce observable constraints, which are linear constraints of the form p(s, t) = ?xy 1 ...xynn ?[s,t] rT (xy11 . . . xynn ), where rT (xy11 . . . xynn ) is computed from the Hankel. 1 From a matrix satisfying the hypothesis of Proposition 2 and the observation constraints, one can derive an FST computing a mapping which agrees on the observations. Given an i/o sequence (s, t), the size of [s, t] (hence the size of the Hankel matrix) is in general exponential in the size of s and t. In order to overcome that problem when considering the observation constraints, one will consider aggregations of rows and columns, corresponding to sets of prefixes and suffixes. Obviously, the definition of a Hankel matrix must be extended to this case. One will denote by P(A) the set of subsets of A. Definition 8. Let u, u? ? P(?? ). The set uu? is defined by uu? = {ww? ?w ? u, w? ? u? }. 1?n 1?n We will denote sets of alignments as follows: xy1?n will denote the set {xy1?n }, which contains a single x1?n x1?n xn+1?n+k xn+1?n+k aligned sequence; then y1?n [s, t] will denote the set {y1?n yn+1?n+k ? yn+1?n+k ? [s, t]}, which extends 1?n 1?n {xy1?n } with all ways of aligning (s, t). We will also use [s, t]xy1?n analogously. Definition 9. A generalized prefix (resp. generalized suffix) is the empty set or a set of the form 1?n 1?n [s, t]yx1?n (resp. yx1?n [s, t]), where the aligned part is possibly empty. 3.1 Generalized Hankel One needs to extend the definition of a Hankel matrix to the generalized prefixes and suffixes. Definition 10. Let U be a set of generalized prefixes, V be a set of generalized suffixes. Let H be a matrix indexed by U (in rows) and V (in columns). H is a generalized Hankel matrix if it satisfies: ? ? ? ? ?? u, u ?? ? U, ?? v , v?? ? V, ? uv = ? u v ? ? H(u, v) = ? H(u v ) u?? u,v?? v u? ?? u? ,v ? ?? v? where ? is the disjoint union. 4 u?? u,v?? v u? ?? u? ,v ? ?? v? In particular, if U and V are sets of regular prefixes and suffixes, this definition encompasses the regular definition for a Hankel matrix. Definition 11. Let U be a set of generalized prefixes. U is prefix-closed if 1?n 1?n?1 [s, t]xy1?n ? U ? [s, t]yx1?n?1 ?U [s1?n , t1?k ] ? U ? [s1?n?1 , t1?k ]s?n , [s1?n , t1?k?1 ]?tk , [s1?n?1 , t1?k?1 ]stkn ? U Definition 12. Let V be a set of generalized suffixes. V is suffix-closed if x1?n y1?n [s, t] 2?n ? V ? xy2?n [s, t] ? V [s1?n , t1?k ] ? V ? s?1 [s2?n , t1?k ], ?t1 [s1?n , t2?k ], st11 [s2?n , t2?k ] ? V Definition 13. Let U be a set of generalized prefixes, V be a set of generalized suffixes. The rightoperator completion of U is the set U ? = U ? {uxy ?u ? U, xy ? ?}. The left-operator completion of V is the set ?V = V ? {xy v?v ? V, xy ? ?}. A key result is the following, which is analogous to Proposition 2 for generalized Hankel matrices: Proposition 3. Let U and V be two sets of generalized prefixes and generalized suffixes. Let H be a Hankel matrix built from U ? and ?V . One supposes that rank(H? ) = rank(H), U is prefixclosed and V is suffix-closed. Then the model A defined by ?1? = H1? H?+ , ?? = H? , Mxy = Hxy H?+ computes a mapping rA such that ?u ? U, ?v ? V, rA (uv) = H? (u, v) Proof. The proof can be found in the Appendix. Let S be a sample of unaligned sequences. Let prefS,in (resp. prefS,out , suffS,in , suffS,out ) be the prefix (resp. suffix) closure of input (resp. output) strings in S. Let U = {[s, t]}s?prefS,in ,t?prefS,out and V = {[s, t]}s?suffS,in ,t?suffS,out . The sets U and V contain all the observed pairs of unaligned sequences, and one can check that the sizes of U ? and ?V are polynomial in the size of S. Example 3. Let us continue with the same model A as in Example 1. Let us now consider the prefixes , 00 and the suffixes , 11 . The Hankel matrices will be: H1 = ( 1/4 1/4 1/4 ) H? = ( ) H? = ( 0 0 0 H1? = ( 1/12 0 0 0 ) H0 = ( 0 1/192 0 0 1/24 ) H?0 = ( 1/32 0 1/32 0 ) H1 = ( 0 1/32 1 0 ) 1/96 0 ) 0 and one finally gets the model A? defined by: ?1 = ( M?0 = ( 1 1/4 1/3 ) M1? = ( ) ?? = ( 0 0 0 1/6 0 0 0 ) M0 = ( 1/3 0 0 0 ) 1/6 1 0 ) M1 = ( 1/8 0 1 0 ) 0 One can easily check that A? computes the same probability distribution than A. 4 FST Learning as Non-convex Optimization Proposition 3 shows that FST models can be recovered from generalized Hankel matrices. In this section we show how FST learning can be framed as an optimization problem where one searches for a low-rank generalized Hankel matrix that agrees with observation constraints derived from a sample. We assume here that p is a probability distribution over i/o sequences. We will denote by z = (p([s, t]))s???+ ,t???? the vector built from observable probabilities, and by z S = (pS ([s, t]))s???+ ,t???? the set of empirical observable probabilities, where pS is the frequency deduced from an i.i.d. sample S. 5 ? be the vector describing the coefficients of H. Let K be the matrix such that K H ? = 0 repLet H ? resents the Hankel constraints (cf. definition 10). Let O be the matrix such that OH = z represents the observation constraints (i.e. ? H([s, t], ) = p([s, t])). The optimization task is the following: rank(H) minimize H ? ? z?2 ? ? subject to ?OH ? =0 KH (1) ?H?2 ? 1. The condition ?H?2 ? 1 is necessary to bound the set of possible solutions. In particular, if H is the Hankel matrix of a probability distribution, the condition is satisfied: one?has ?H?1 ? 1 as each column is a probability distribution, as well as ?H?F ? 1 and thus ?H?2 ? ?H?1 ?H?F ? 1. Let us remark that the set of matrices satisfying the constraints is a compact set. Let us denote H? the class of Hankel matrices solutions of (1) for a given ?, where z represents the p(ui vj ). Let us denote H?S the class of Hankel matrices solutions of (1) for a given ?, where zS represents pS (ui vj ), the observed frequencies in a sample S i.i.d. with respect to p. Proposition 4. Let p be a distribution over i/o sequences computed by an FST. There exists U and V such that any solution of H0 leads to an FST ?1? = H1? H?+ , ?? = H? , Mxy = Hxy H?+ which computes p. Proof. The proof can be found in the Appendix. 4.1 Theoretical Properties We now present the main theoretical results related to the optimization problem (1). The first one concerns the rank identification, while the second one concerns the consistency of the method. Proposition 5. Let p be a rank d distribution computed by an FST. There exists ?2 such that for any ? > 0 and any i.i.d. sample S ?S? > ?2 + ? ? 2 8 log(1/?) ? ?2 ? implies that any H ? H?S solution of (1) with ? = at least 1 ? ?. ? 1+ 2 log(1/?) ? ?S? leads to a rank-d FST with probability Proof. The proof can be found in the Appendix. Proposition 6. Let p be a rank d distribution computed by an FST. There exists ? such that for any ? > 0 and any i.i.d. sample S ?1 + ?S? > ? ? 2 2 log(1/?) ? ? ? implies that for any H ? H?S solution of (1) with ? = ? 1+ 2 log(1/?) ? ?S? leading to a model As there exists a model A computing p such that ?A, AS ?? ? O( d2  ) ?p3 where ?A, AS ?? is the maximum distance for model parameters, and ?p is a non-zero parameter depending on p. Proof. The proof can be found in the Appendix. 6 Example 4. This continues Examples 1 and 3. Let us first remark that, among all the values used to build the Hankel matrices in Example 3, some of them correspond to observable statistics, as there is only one possible alignment for them. Conversely, the exact values of rM (00 ?0 11 ) and rM (00 1? 11 ) are not observable. Then the rank minimization objective is not sufficient, as it allows any value for those variables. Let us consider now larger sets of prefixes and suffixes: ?, ?0 , 00 and ?, 1? , 11 . One then has ? 1/4 H = ? 1/24 ? 0 1/12 ? 0 0 ? ? 1/12 0 ? H1 = ? ? ? ? 0 1/32 ? 1/36 ? 0 0 ? ? 0 0 ? H1 = ? 0 1 ? 1/32 ? ? 0 0 ? 0 ? 0 ? 0 ? We want to minimize the rank of H ? subject to the constraints O and K: ? H? ? H = ? H1? ? = (hij ) , ? H1 ? ? 1 ? ? ? ? ? O=? ? ? ? ? ? h11 = 1/4 h12 = 1/12 h13 = 0 h21 = 1/24 ? h63 + h92 = 1/64 ? , ? h = h41 ? ? 12 K = ? h13 = h71 ? ? ? h22 = h51 h23 = h81 h32 = h61 h33 = h91 The relation h63 + h92 = 1/64 is due to fact that rA (00 ?0 11 ) + rA (?0 00 11 ) = rA ((01, 001)) = 1/64. One has h22 = h51 as they both represent p(?0 1? ). It is clear that H ? has a rank greater or equal than 2. The only way to reach rank 2 under the constraints is h22 = h51 = 1/72, h52 = 1/216, h63 = 1/192, h92 = 1/96 Thus, the process of rank minimization under linear constraints leads to one single model, which is identical to the original one. Of course, in the general case, the rank minimization objective may lead to several models. 4.2 Convex Relaxation The problem as it is stated in (1) is NP-hard to solve in the size of the Hankel matrix, hence impossible to deal with in practical cases. One can solve instead a convex relaxation of the problem (1), obtained by replacing the rank objective by the nuclear norm. The relaxed optimization statement is then the following: minimize ?H?? H ? ? z?2 ? ? subject to ?OH ? =0 KH (2) ?H?2 ? 1. This type of relaxation has been used extensively in multiple settings [13]. The nuclear norm ??? plays the same role than the ??1 norm in convex relaxations of the ??0 norm, used to reach sparsity under linear constraints. 5 Experiments We ran synthetic experiments using samples generated from random FST with input-output alphabets of size two. The main goal of our experiments was to compare our algorithm to a supervised spectral algorithm for FST that has access to alignments. In both methods, the Hankel was defined for prefixes and suffixes up to length 1. Each run consists of generating a target FST, and generating N aligned samples according to the target distribution. These samples were directly used by the supervised algorithm. Then, we removed the alignment information from each sample (thus obtaining a pair of unaligned strings), and we used them to train an FST with our general learning algorithm, trying different values for a C parameter that trades-off the nuclear norm term and the observation term. We ran this experiment for 8 target models of 5 states, for different sampling sizes. We measure the L1 error of the learned models with respect to the target distribution on all unaligned pairs of strings whose sizes sum up to 6. We report results for geometric averages. In addition, we ran two additional methods. First a factorized method that assumes that the two sequences are generated independently, and learns two separate weighted automata using a spectral 7 0.003 UNS 0.01 UNS 0.1 SUP EM 0.0025 L1 error 0.002 0.0015 0.001 0.0005 0.0001 10k 20k 50k 100k 200k 500k 1M Number of Samples (logscale) Figure 1: Learning curves for different methods: SUP, supervised; UNS, unsupervised with different regularizers; EM, expectation maximization. The curves are averages of L1 error for random target models of 5 states. method. Its performance is very bad, with L1 error rates at ?0.08, which confirms that our target models generate highly dependent sequence pairs. This baseline result also implies that the rest of the methods can learn the dependencies between paired strings. Second, we ran an Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM). Figure 1 shows the performance of the learned models with respect to the number of samples. Clearly, our algorithm is able to estimate the target distribution and gets close to the performance of the supervised method, while making use of much simpler statistics. EM performed slightly better than the spectral methods, but nonetheless at the same levels of performance. One can find other experimental results for the unsupervised spectral method in [1], where it is shown that, under certain circumstances, unsupervised spectral method can perform better than supervised EM. Though the framework (unsupervised learning of PCFGs) is not the same, the method is similar and the optimization statement is identical. 6 Conclusion In this paper we presented a spectral algorithm for learning FST from unaligned sequences. This is the first paper to derive a spectral algorithm for the unsupervised FST learning setting. We prove that there is theoretical identifiability of the rank and the parameters of an FST distribution, using a rank minimization formulation. However, this problem is NP-hard, and it remains open whether there exists a polynomial method with identifiability results. Classically, rank minimization problems are solved with convex relaxations such as the nuclear norm minimization we have proposed. In experiments, we show that our method is comparable to a fully supervised spectral method, and close to the performance of EM. Our approach follows a similar idea to that of [3] since both works combine classic ideas from spectral learning with classic ideas from low rank matrix completion. The basic idea is to frame learning of distributions over structured objects as a low-rank matrix factorization subject to linear constraints derived from observable statistics. This method applies to other grammatical inference domains, such as unsupervised spectral learning of PCFGs ([1]). Acknowledgments We are grateful to Borja Balle and the anonymous reviewers for providing us with helpful comments. This work was supported by a Google Research Award, and by projects XLike (FP7-288342), ERANet CHISTERA VISEN, TACARDI (TIN2012-38523-C02-02), BASMATI (TIN2011-27479-C0403), and SGR-LARCA (2009-SGR-1428). Xavier Carreras was supported by the Ram?on y Cajal program of the Spanish Government (RYC-2008-02223). 8 References [1] R. Bailly, X. Carreras, F. M. Luque, and A. Quattoni. Unsupervised spectral learning of wcfg as low-rank matrix completion. EMNLP, 2013. [2] R. Bailly, F. Denis, and L. Ralaivola. Grammatical inference as a principal component analysis problem. In Proc. ICML, 2009. [3] B. Balle and M. Mohri. Spectral learning of general weighted automata via constrained matrix completion. In Proc. of NIPS, 2012. [4] B. Balle, A. Quattoni, and X. Carreras. A spectral learning algorithm for finite state transducers. ECML?PKDD, 2011. [5] Borja Balle, Ariadna Quattoni, and Xavier Carreras. Local loss optimization in operator models: A new insight into spectral learning. In John Langford and Joelle Pineau, editors, Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML-12), ICML ?12, pages 1879?1886, New York, NY, USA, July 2012. Omnipress. [6] M. Bernard, J-C. Janodet, and M. Sebban. A discriminative model of stochastic edit distance in the form of a conditional transducer. Grammatical Inference: Algorithms and Applications, 4201, 2006. [7] B. Boots, S. Siddiqi, and G. Gordon. Closing the learning planning loop with predictive state representations. I. J. Robotic Research, 2011. [8] F. Casacuberta. Inference of finite-state transducers by using regular grammars and morphisms. Grammatical Inference: Algorithms and Applications, 1891, 2000. [9] A. Clark. Partially supervised learning of morphology with stochastic transducers. In Proc. of NLPRS, pages 341?348, 2001. [10] Shay B. Cohen, Karl Stratos, Michael Collins, Dean P. Foster, and Lyle Ungar. Spectral learning of latent-variable pcfgs. In Proceedings of the 50th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 223?231, Jeju Island, Korea, July 2012. Association for Computational Linguistics. [11] J. Eisner. Parameter estimation for probabilistic finite-state transducers. In Proc. of ACL, pages 1?8, 2002. [12] G. Stewart et J.-G. Sun. Matrix perturbation theory. Academic Press, 1990. [13] Maryam Fazel. Matrix rank minimization with applications. PhD thesis, Stanford University, Electrical Engineering Dept., 2002. [14] D. Hsu, S. M. Kakade, and T. Zhang. A spectral algorithm for learning hidden markov models. In Proc. of COLT, 2009. [15] Mehryar Mohri. Finite-state transducers in language and speech processing. Computational Linguistics, 23(2):269?311, 1997. [16] A.P. Parikh, L. Song, and E.P. Xing. A spectral algorithm for latent tree graphical models. ICML, 2011. [17] S.M. Siddiqi, B. Boots, and G.J. Gordon. Reduced-rank hidden markov models. AISTATS, 2010. [18] L. Song, B. Boots, S. Siddiqi, G. Gordon, and A. Smola. Hilbert space embeddings of hidden markov models. ICML, 2010. [19] L. Zwald and G. Blanchard. On the convergence of eigenspaces in kernel principal component analysis. NIPS, 2005. 9
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On Decomposing the Proximal Map Yaoliang Yu Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton AB T6G 2E8, Canada [email protected] Abstract The proximal map is the key step in gradient-type algorithms, which have become prevalent in large-scale high-dimensional problems. For simple functions this proximal map is available in closed-form while for more complicated functions it can become highly nontrivial. Motivated by the need of combining regularizers to simultaneously induce different types of structures, this paper initiates a systematic investigation of when the proximal map of a sum of functions decomposes into the composition of the proximal maps of the individual summands. We not only unify a few known results scattered in the literature but also discover several new decompositions obtained almost effortlessly from our theory. 1 Introduction Regularization has become an indispensable part of modern machine learning algorithms. For example, the `2 -regularizer for kernel methods [1] and the `1 -regularizer for sparse methods [2] have led to immense successes in various fields. As real data become more and more complex, different types of regularizers, usually nonsmooth functions, have been designed. In many applications, it is thus desirable to combine regularizers, usually taking their sum, to promote different structures simultaneously. Since many interesting regularizers are nonsmooth, they are harder to optimize numerically, especially in large-scale high-dimensional settings. Thanks to recent advances [3?5], gradient-type algorithms have been generalized to take nonsmooth regularizers explicitly into account. And due to their cheap per-iteration cost (usually linear-time), these algorithms have become prevalent in many fields recently. The key step of such gradient-type algorithms is to compute the proximal map (of the nonsmooth regularizer), which is available in closed-form for some specific regularizers. However, the proximal map becomes highly nontrivial when we start to combine regularizers. The main goal of this paper is to systematically investigate when the proximal map of a sum of functions decomposes into the composition of the proximal maps of the individual functions, which we simply term prox-decomposition. Our motivation comes from a few known decomposition results scattered in the literature [6?8], all in the form of our interest. The study of such proxdecompositions is not only of mathematical interest, but also the backbone of popular gradient-type algorithms [3?5]. More importantly, a precise understanding of this decomposition will shed light on how we should combine regularizers, taking computational efforts explicitly into account. After setting the context in Section 2, we motivate the decomposition rule with some justifications, as well as some cautionary results. Based on a sufficient condition presented in Section 3.1, we study how ?invariance? of the subdifferential of one function would lead to nontrivial proxdecompositions. Specifically, we prove in Section 3.3 that when the subdifferential of one function is scaling invariant, then the prox-decomposition always holds if and only if another function is radial?which is, quite unexpectedly, exactly the same condition proven recently for the validity of the representer theorem in the context of kernel methods [9, 10]. The generalization to cone invariance is considered in Section 3.4, and enables us to recover most known prox-decompositions, as well as some new ones falling out quite naturally. 1 Our notations are mostly standard. We use ?C (x) for the indicator function that takes 0 if x ? C and ? otherwise, and 1C (x) for the indicator that takes 1 if x ? C and 0 otherwise. The symbol ? Throughout the Id stands for the identity map and the extended real line R ? {?} is denoted as R. paper we denote ?f (x) as the subdifferential of the function f at point x. 2 Preliminary Let our domain be some (real) Hilbert space (H, h?, ?i), with the induced Hilbertian norm k ? k. If needed, we will assume some fixed orthonormal basis {ei }i?I is chosen for H, so that for x ? H we are able to refer to its ?coordinates? xi = hx, ei i. ? we define its Moreau envelop as [11] For any closed convex proper function f : H ? R, ?y ? H, Mf (y) = min 21 kx ? yk2 + f (x), x?H (1) and the related proximal map Pf (y) = argmin 12 kx ? yk2 + f (x). (2) x?H Due to the strong convexity of k ? k2 and the closedness and convexity of f , Pf (y) always exists and is unique. Note that Mf : H ? R while Pf : H ? H. When f = ?C is the indicator of some closed convex set C, the proximal map reduces to the usual projection. Perhaps the most interesting property of Mf , known as Moreau?s identity, is the following decomposition [11] Mf (y) + Mf ? (y) = 21 kyk2 , (3) ? where f (z) = supx hx, zi ? f (x) is the Fenchel conjugate of f . It can be shown that Mf is Frech?t differentiable, hence taking derivative w.r.t. y in both sides of (3) yields Pf (y) + Pf ? (y) = y. 3 (4) Main Results Our main goal is to investigate and understand the equality (we always assume f + g 6? ?) ? ? Pf +g = Pf ? Pg = Pg ? Pf , (5) where f, g ? ?0 , the set of all closed convex proper functions on H, and f ? g denotes the mapping composition. We present first some cautionary results. ?1 ?1 Note that Pf = (Id+?f )?1 , hence under minor technical assumptions Pf +g = (P?1 ?2Id. 2f +P2g ) However, computationally this formula is of little use. On the other hand, it is possible to develop forward-backward splitting procedures1 to numerically compute Pf +g , using only Pf and Pg as subroutines [12]. Our focus is on the exact closed-form formula (5). Interestingly, under some ?shrinkage? assumption, the prox-decomposition (5), even if not necessarily hold, can still be used in subgradient algorithms [13]. Our first result is encouraging: Proposition 1. If H = R, then for any f, g ? ?0 , there exists h ? ?0 such that Ph = Pf ? Pg . Proof: In fact, Moreau [11, Corollary 10.c] proved that P : H ? H is a proximal map iff it is nonexpansive and it is the subdifferential of some convex function in ?0 . Although the latter condition in general is not easy to verify, it reduces to monotonic increasing when H = R (note that P must be continuous). Since both Pf and Pg are increasing and nonexpansive, it follows easily that so is Pf ? Pg , hence the existence of h ? ?0 so that Ph = Pf ? Pg . In a general Hilbert space H, we again easily conclude that the composition Pf ? Pg is always a nonexpansion, which means that it is ?close? to be a proximal map. This justifies the composition Pf ? Pg as a candidate for the decomposition of Pf +g . However, we note that Proposition 1 indeed can fail already in R2 : 1 In some sense, this procedure is to compute Pf +g ? limt?? (Pf ? Pg )t , modulo some intermediate steps. Essentially, our goal is to establish the one-step convergence of that iterative procedure. 2 Example 1. Let H = R2 . Let f = ?{x1 =x2 } and g = ?{x2 =0} . Clearly both f and g are in ?0 . The 2 x1 +x2 proximal maps in this case are simply projections: Pf (x) = ( x1 +x , 2 ) and Pg (x) = (x1 , 0). 2 Therefore Pf (Pg (x)) = ( x21 , x21 ). We easily verify that the inequality kPf (Pg (x)) ? Pf (Pg (y))k2 ? hPf (Pg (x)) ? Pf (Pg (y)), x ? yi is not always true, contradiction if Pf ? Pg was a proximal map [11, Eq. (5.3)]. Even worse, when Proposition 1 does hold, in general we can not expect the decomposition (5) to be true without additional assumptions. 1 Example 2. Let H = R and q(x) = 21 x2 . It is easily seen that P?q (x) = 1+? x. Therefore 1 1 Pq ? Pq = 4 Id 6= 3 Id = Pq+q . We will give an explanation for this failure of composition shortly. Nevertheless, as we will see, the equality in (5) does hold in many scenarios, and an interesting theory can be suitably developed. 3.1 A Sufficient Condition We start with a sufficient condition that yields (5). This result, although easy to obtain, will play a key role in our subsequent development. Using the first order optimality condition and the definition of the proximal map (2), we have Pf +g (y) ? y + ?(f + g)(Pf +g (y)) 3 0 Pg (y) ? y + ?g(Pg (y)) 3 0 Pf (Pg (y)) ? Pg (y) + ?f (Pf (Pg (y))) 3 0. (6) (7) (8) Adding the last two equations we obtain Pf (Pg (y)) ? y + ?g(Pg (y)) + ?f (Pf (Pg (y))) 3 0. (9) Comparing (6) and (9) gives us Theorem 1. A sufficient condition for Pf +g = Pf ? Pg is ? x ? H, ?g(Pf (x)) ? ?g(x). (10) Proof: Let x = Pg (y). Then by (9) and the subdifferential rule ?(f + g) ? ?f + ?g we verify that Pf (Pg (y)) satisfies (6), hence follows Pf +g = Pf ? Pg since the proximal map is single-valued. We note that a special form of our sufficient condition has appeared in the proof of [8, Theorem 1], whose main result also follows immediately from our Theorem 4 below. Let us fix f , and define Kf = {g ? ?0 : f + g 6? ?, (f, g) satisfy (10)}. Immediately we have Proposition 2. For any f ? ?0 , Kf is a cone. Moreover, if g1 ? Kf , g2 ? Kf , f + g1 + g2 6? ? and ?(g1 + g2 ) = ?g1 + ?g2 , then g1 + g2 ? Kf too. The condition ?(g1 +g2 ) = ?g1 +?g2 in Proposition 2 is purely technical; it is satisfied when, say g1 is continuous at a single, arbitrary point in dom g1 ? dom g2 . For comparison purpose, we note that it is not clear how Pf +g+h = Pf ? Pg+h would follow from Pf +g = Pf ? Pg and Pf +h = Pf ? Ph . This is the main motivation to consider the sufficient condition (10). In particular Definition 1. We call f ? ?0 self-prox-decomposable (s.p.d.) if f ? K?f for all ? > 0. For any s.p.d. f , since Kf is a cone, ?f ? K?f for all ?, ? ? 0. Consequently, P(?+?)f = P?f ? P?f = P?f ? P?f . Remark 1. A weaker definition for s.p.d. is to require f ? Kf , from which we conclude that ?f ? Kf for all ? ? 0, in particular P(m+n)f = Pnf ? Pmf = Pmf ? Pnf for all natural numbers m and n. The two definitions coincide for positive homogeneous functions. We have not been able to construct a function that satisfies this weaker definition but not the stronger one in Definition 1. Example 3. We easily verify that all affine functions ` = h?, ai + b are s.p.d., in fact, they are the only differentiable functions that are s.p.d., which explains why Example 2 must fail. Another trivial class of s.p.d. functions are projectors to closed convex sets. Also, univariate gauges2 are s.p.d., due to Theorem 4 below. Some multivariate s.p.d. functions are given in Remark 5 below. 2 A gauge is a positively homogeneous convex function that vanishes at the origin. 3 The next example shows that (10) is not necessary. Example 4. Fix z ? H, f = ?{z} , and g ? ?0 with full domain. Clearly for any x ? H, Pf +g (x) = z = Pf [Pg (x)]. However, since x is arbitrary, ?g(Pf (x)) = ?g(z) 6? ?g(x) if g is not linear. On the other hand, if f, g are differentiable, then we actually have equality in (10), which is clearly necessary in this case. Since convex functions are almost everywhere differentiable (in the interior of their domain), we expect the sufficient condition (10) to be necessary ?almost everywhere? too. Thus we see that the key for the decomposition (5) to hold is to let the proximal map of f and the subdifferential of g ?interact well? in the sense of (10). Interestingly, both are fully equivalent to the function itself. Proposition 3 ([11, ?8]). Let f, g ? ?0 . f = g + c for some c ? R ?? ?f ? ?g ?? Pf = Pg . Proof: The first implication is clear. The second follows from the optimality condition Pf = (Id + ?f )?1 . Lastly, Pf = Pg implies that Mf ? = Mg? ? c for some c ? R (by integration). Conjugating we get f = g + c for some c ? R. Therefore some properties of the proximal map will transfer to some properties of the function f itself, and vice versa. The next result is easy to obtain, and appeared essentially in [14]. Proposition 4. Let f ? ?0 and x ? H be arbitrary, then i). Pf is odd iff f is even; ii). Pf (U x) = U Pf (x) for all unitary U iff f (U x) = f (x) for all unitary U ; iii). Pf (Qx) = QPf (x) for all permutation Q (under some fixed basis) iff f is permutation invariant, that is f (Qx) = f (x) for all permutation Q. In the following, we will put some invariance assumptions on the subdifferential of g and accordingly find the right family of f whose proximal map ?respects? that invariance. This way we will meet (10) by construction therefore effortlessly have the decomposition (5). 3.2 No Invariance To begin with, consider first the trivial case where no invariance on the subdifferential of g is assumed. This is equivalent as requiring (10) to hold for all g ? ?0 . Not surprisingly, we end up with a trivial choice of f . Theorem 2. Fix f ? ?0 . Pf +g = Pf ? Pg for all g ? ?0 if and only if ? dim(H) ? 2; f ? c or f = ?{w} + c for some c ? R and w ? H; ? dim(H) = 1 and f = ?C + c for some closed and convex set C and c ? R. Proof: ?: Straightforward calculations, see [15] for details. ?: We first prove that f is constant on its domain even when g is restricted to indicators. Indeed, let x ? dom f and take g = ?{x} . Then x = Pf +g (x) = Pf [Pg (x)] = Pf (x), meaning that x ? argmin f . Since x ? dom f is arbitrary, f is constant on its domain. The case dim(H) = 1 is complete. We consider the other case where dim(H) ? 2 and dom f contains at least two points. If dom f 6= H, there exists z 6? dom f such that Pf (z) = y for some y ? dom f , and closed convex set C ? dom f 6= ? with y 6? C 3 z. Let g = ?C we obtain Pf +g (z) ? C ? dom f while Pf (Pg (z)) = Pf (z) = y 6? C, contradiction. Observe that the decomposition (5) is not symmetric in f and g, also reflected in the next result: Theorem 3. Fix g ? ?0 . Pf +g = Pf ? Pg for all f ? ?0 iff g is a continuous affine function. Proof: ?: If g = h?, ai + c, then Pg (x) = x ? a. Easy calculation reveals that Pf +g (x) = Pf (x ? a) = Pf [Pg (x)]. ?: The converse is true even when f is restricted to continuous linear functions. Indeed, let a ? H be arbitrary and consider f = h?, ai. Then Pf +g (x) = Pg (x ? a) = Pf (Pg (x)) = Pg (x) ? a. Letting a = x yields Pg (x) = x + Pg (0) = Ph?,?Pg (0)i (x). Therefore by Proposition 3 we know g is equal to a continuous affine function. 4 Naturally, the next step is to put invariance assumptions on the subdifferential of g, effectively restricting the function class of g. As a trade off, the function class of f , that satisfies (10), becomes larger so that nontrivial results will arise. 3.3 Scaling Invariance The first invariance property we consider is scaling-invariance. What kind of convex functions have their subdifferential invariant to (positive) scaling? Assuming 0 ? dom g and by simple integration Z t Z t 0 h?g(sx), xi ds = t ? [g(x) ? g(0)], g (sx)ds = g(tx) ? g(0) = 0 0 where the last equality follows from the scaling invariance of the subdifferential of g. Therefore, up to some additive constant, g is positive homogeneous (p.h.). On the other hand, if g ? ?0 is p.h. (automatically 0 ? dom g), then from definition we verify that ?g is scaling-invariant. Therefore, under the scaling-invariance assumption, the right function class for g is the set of all p.h. functions in ?0 , up to some additive constant. Consequently, the right function class for f is to have the proximal map Pf (x) = ? ? x for some ? ? [0, 1] that may depend on x as well3 . The next theorem completely characterizes such functions. Theorem 4. Let f ? ?0 . Consider the statements ? i). f = h(k ? k) for some increasing function h : R+ ? R; ii). x ? y =? f (x + y) ? f (y); iii). Pf (u) = ? ? u for some ? ? [0, 1] (that may itself depend on u); iv). 0 ? dom f and Pf +? = Pf ? P? for all p.h. (up to some additive constant) function ? ? ?0 . Then we have i) =? ii) ?? iii) ?? iv). Moreover, when dim(H) ? 2, ii) =? i) as well, in which case Pf (u) = Ph (kuk)/kuk ? u (where we interpret 0/0 = 0). Remark 2. When dim(H) = 1, ii) is equivalent as requiring f to attain its minimum at 0, in which case the implication ii) =? iv), under the redundant condition that f is differentiable, was proved by Combettes and Pesquet [14, Proposition 3.6]. The implication ii) =? iii) also generalizes [14, Corollary 2.5], where only the case dim(H) = 1 and f differentiable is considered. Note that there exists non-even f that satisfies Theorem 4 when dim(H) = 1. Such is impossible for dim(H) ? 2, in which case any f that satisfies Theorem 4 must also enjoy all properties listed in Proposition 4. Proof: i) =? ii): x ? y =? kx + yk ? kyk. ii) =? iii): Indeed, by definition Mf (u) = min 21 kx ? uk2 + f (x) = minu? ,? 12 ku? + ?u ? uk2 + f (u? + ?u) x = min 21 k?u ? uk2 + f (?u) = min??[0,1] 21 (? ? 1)2 kuk2 + f (?u), ? where the third equality is due to ii), and the nonnegative constraint in the last equality can be seen as follows: For any ? < 0, by increasing it to 0 we can only decrease both terms; similar argument for ? > 1. Therefore there exists ? ? [0, 1] such that ?u minimizes the Moreau envelop Mf hence we have Pf (u) = ?u due to uniqueness. iii) =? iv): Note first that iii) implies 0 ? ?f (0), therefore 0 ? dom f . Since the subdifferential of ? is scaling-invariant, iii) implies the sufficient condition (10) hence iv). iv) =? iii): Fix y and construct the gauge function  0, if z = ? ? y for some ? ? 0 ?(z) = . ?, otherwise Then P? (y) = y, hence Pf (P? (y)) = Pf (y) = Pf +? (y) by iv). On the other hand, Mf +? (y) = min 21 kx ? yk22 + f (x) + ?(x) = min??0 21 k?y ? yk22 + f (?y). x 3 Note that ? ? 1 is necessary since any proximal map is nonexpansive. 5 (11) Take y = 0 we obtain Pf +? (0) = 0. Thus Pf (0) = 0, i.e. 0 ? ?f (0), from which we deduce that Pf (y) = Pf +? (y) = ?y for some ? ? [0, 1], since f (?y) in (11) is increasing on [1, ?[. iii) =? ii): First note that iii) implies that Pf (0) = 0 hence 0 ? ?f (0), in particular, 0 ? dom f . If dim(H) = 1 we are done, so we assume dim(H) ? 2 in the rest of the proof. In this case, it is known, cf. [9, Theorem 1] or [10, Theorem 3], that ii) ?? i) (even without assuming f convex). All we left is to prove iii) =? ii) or equivalently i), for the case dim(H) ? 2. We first prove the case when dom f = H. By iii), Pf (x) = ?x for some ? ? [0, 1] (which may depend on x as well). Using the first order optimality condition for the proximal map we have 0 ? ?x ? x + ?f (?x), that is ( ?1 ? 1)y ? ?f (y) for each y ? ran(Pf ) = H due to our assumption dom f = H. Now for any x ? y, by the definition of the subdifferential, f (x + y) ? f (y) + hx, ?f (y)i = f (y) + x, ( ?1 ? 1)y = f (y). For the case when dom f ? H, we consider the proximal average [16] g = A(f, q) = [( 21 (f ? + q)? + 14 q)? ? q]? , (12) where q = 12 k ? k2 . Importantly, since q is defined on the whole space, the proximal average g has full domain too [16, Corollary 4.7]. Moreover, Pg (x) = 21 Pf (x) + 41 x = ( 12 ? + 14 )x. Therefore by our previous argument, g satisfies ii) hence also i). It is easy to check that i) is preserved under taking the Fenchel conjugation (note that the convexity of f implies that of h). Since we have shown that g satisfies i), it follows from (12) that f satisfies i) hence also ii). As mentioned, when dim(H) ? 2, the implication ii) =? i) was shown in [9, Theorem 1]. The formula Pf (u) = Ph (kuk)/kuk ? u for f = h(k ? k) follows from straightforward calculation. We now discuss some applications of Theorem 4. When dim(H) ? 2, iii) in Theorem 4 automatically implies that the scalar constant ? depends on x only through its norm. This fact, although not entirely obvious, does have a clear geometric picture: Corollary 1. Let dim(H) ? 2, C ? H be a closed convex set that contains the origin. Then the projection onto C is simply a shrinkage towards the origin iff C is a ball (of the norm k ? k). Proof: Let f = ?C and apply Theorem 4. Example 5. As usual, denote q = 21 k ? k2 . In many applications, in addition to the regularizer ? (usually a gauge), one adds the `22 regularizer ?q either for stability or grouping effect or strong convexity. This incurs no computational cost in the sense of computing the proximal map: We easily 1 1 compute that P?q = ?+1 Id. By Theorem 4, for any gauge ?, P?+?q = ?+1 P? , whence it is also clear that adding an extra `2 regularizer tends to double ?shrink? the solution. In particular, let H = Rd and take ? = k ? k1 (the sum of absolute values) we recover the proximal map for the elastic-net regularizer [17]. Example 6. The Berhu regularizer h(x) = |x|1|x|<? + x2 +? 2 2? 1|x|?? = |x| + (|x|??)2 1|x|?? , 2? being the reverse of Huber?s function, is proposed in [18] as a bridge between the lasso (`1 regularization) and ridge regression (`22 regularization). Let f (x) = h(x) ? |x|. Clearly, f satisfies ii) of Theorem 4 (but not differentiable), hence Ph = Pf ? P|?| , whereas simple calculation verifies that ? Pf (x) = sign(x) ? min{|x|, 1+? (|x| + 1)}, and of course P|?| (x) = sign(x) ? max{|x| ? 1, 0}. Note that this regularizer is not s.p.d. Corollary 2. Let dim(H) ? 2, then the p.h. function f ? ?0 satisfies any item of Theorem 4 iff it is a positive multiple of the norm k ? k. Proof: [10, Theorem 4] showed that under positive homogeneity, i) implies that f is a positive multiple of the norm. Therefore (positive multiples of) the Hilbertian norm is the only p.h. convex function f that satisfies Pf +? = Pf ? P? for all gauge ?. In particular, this means that the norm k ? k is s.p.d. Moreover, we easily recover the following result that is perhaps not so obvious at first glance: 6 Corollary 3 (Jenatton et al. [7]). Fix the orthonormal basis {ei }i?I of H. Let G ? 2I be a collection of tree-structured groups, that is, either g ? g0 or g0 ? g or g ? g0 = ? for all g, g0 ? G. Then PPm = Pk?kg1 ? ? ? ? ? Pk?kgm , i=1 k?kgi where we arrange the groups so that gi ? gj =? i > j, and the notation k ? kgi denotes the Hilbertian norm that is restricted to the coordinates indexed by the group gi . Pm Proof: Let f = k ? kg1 and ? = i=2 k ? kgi . Clearly they are both p.h. (and convex). By the tree-structured assumption we can partition ? = ?1 + ?2 , where gi ? g1 for all gi appearing in ?1 while gj ? g1 = ? for all gj appearing in ?2 . Restricting to the subspace spanned by the variables in g1 we can treat f as the Hilbertian norm. Apply Theorem 4 we obtain Pf +?1 = Pf ? P?1 . On the other hand, due to the non-overlapping property, nothing will be affected by adding ?2 , thus PPm = Pk?kg1 ? PPm . i=1 k?kgi i=2 k?kgi We can clearly iterate the argument to unravel the proximal map as claimed. For notational clarity, we have chosen not to incorporate weights in the sum of group seminorms: Such can be absorbed into the seminorm and the corollary clearly remains intact. Our proof also reveals the fundamental reason why Corollary 3 is true: The `2 norm admits the decomposition (5) for any gauge g! This fact, to the best of our knowledge, has not been recognized previously. 3.4 Cone Invariance In the previous subsection, we restricted the subdifferential of g to be constant along each ray. We now generalize this to cones. Specifically, consider the gauge function ?(x) = max haj , xi , j?J (13) where J is a finite index set and each aj ? H. Such polyhedral gauge functions have become extremely important due to the work of Chandrasekaran et al. [19]. Define the polyhedral cones Kj = {x ? H : haj , xi = ?(x)}. (14) Assume Kj 6= ? for each j (otherwise delete j from J). Since ??(x) = {aj |j ? J, x ? Kj }, the sufficient condition (10) becomes ?j ? J, Pf (Kj ) ? Kj . (15) In other words, each cone Kj is ?fixed? under the proximal map of f . Although it would be very interesting to completely characterize f under (15), we show that in its current form, (15) already implies many known results, with some new generalizations falling out naturally. Corollary 4. Denote E a collection of pairs (m, n), and define the total variational norm kxktv = P 4 {m,n}?E wm,n |xm ? xn |, where wm,n ? 0. Then for any permutation invariant function f , Pf +k?ktv = Pf ? Pk?ktv . Proof: Pick an arbitrary pair (m, n) ? E and let ? = |xm ? xn |. Clearly J = {1, 2}, K1 = {xm ? xn } and K2 = {xm ? xn }. Since f is permutation invariant, its proximal map Pf (x) maintains the order of x, hence we establish (15). Finally apply Proposition 2 and Theorem 1. Remark 3. The special case where E = {(1, 2), (2, 3), . . .} is a chain, wm,n ? 1 and f is the `1 norm, appeared first in [6] and is generally known as the fused lasso. The case where f is the `p norm appeared in [20]. We call the permutation invariant function f symmetric if ?x, f (|x|) = f (x), where | ? | denotes the componentwise absolute value. The proof for the next corollary is almost the same as that of Corollary 4, except that we also use the fact sign([Pf (x)]m ) = sign(xm ) for symmetric functions. P Corollary 5. As in Corollary 4, define the norm kxkoct = {m,n}?E wm,n max{|xm |, |xn |}. Then for any symmetric function f , Pf +k?koct = Pf ? Pk?koct . 4 All we need is the weaker condition: For all {m, n} ? E, xm ? xn =? [Pf (x)]m ? [Pf (x)]n . 7 Remark 4. This norm k ? koct is proposed in [21] for feature grouping. Surprisingly, Corollary 5 appears to be new. The proximal map Pk?koct is derived P in [22], which turns out to be another decomposition result. Indeed, for i ? 2, define ?i (x) = j?i?1 max{|xi |, |xj |}. Thus X k ? koct = ?i . i?2 Importantly, we observe that ?i is symmetric on the first i ? 1 coordinates. We claim that Pk?koct = P?|I| ? . . . ? P?2 . The proof is by recursion: Write k ? koct = f + g, where f = ?|I| . Note that the subdifferential of g depends only on the ordering and sign of the first |I| ? 1 coordinates while the proximal map of f preserves the ordering and sign of the first |I| ? 1 coordinates (due to symmetry). If we pre-sort x, the individual proximal maps P?i (x) become easy to compute sequentially and we recover the algorithm in [22] with some bookkeeping. Corollary 6. As in Corollary 3, let G ? 2I be a collection of tree-structured groups, then PPm = Pk?kg1 ,k ? ? ? ? ? Pk?kgm ,k , i=1 k?kgi ,k Pk where we arrange the groups so that gi ? gj =? i > j, and kxkgi ,k = j=1 |xgi |[j] is the sum of the k (absolute-value) largest elements in the group gi , i.e., Ky-Fan?s k-norm. Proof: Similar as in the proof of Corollary 3, we need only prove that Pk?kg1 ,k +k?kg2 ,k = Pk?kg1 ,k ? Pk?kg2 ,k , where w.l.o.g. we assume g1 contains all variables while g2 ? g1 . Therefore k ? kg1 ,k can be treated as symmetric and the rest follows the proof of Corollary 5. Note that the case k ? {1, |I|} was proved in [7] and Corollary 6 can be seen as an interpolation. Interestingly, there is another interpolated result whose proof should be apparent now. Corollary 7. Corollary 6 remains true if we replace Ky-Fan?s k-norm with X kxkoct,k = max{|xi1 |, . . . , |xik |}. (16) 1?i1 <i2 <...<ik ?|I| Therefore we can employ the norm kxkoct,2 for feature grouping in a hierarchical manner. Clearly we can also combine Corollary 6 and Corollary 7. Corollary 8. For any symmetric f , Pf +k?koct,k = Pf ? Pk?koct,k . Similarly for Ky-Fan?s k-norm. Remark 5. The above corollary implies that Ky-Fan?s k-norm and the norm k ? koct,k defined in (16) are both s.p.d. (see Definition 1). The special case for the `p norm where p ? {1, 2, ?} was proved in [23, Proposition 11], with a substantially more complicated argument. As pointed out in [23], s.p.d. regularizers allow us to perform lazy updates in gradient-type algorithms. We remark that we have not exhausted the possibility to have the decomposition (5). It is our hope to stimulate further work in understanding the prox-decomposition (5). Added after acceptance: We have managed to extend the results in this subsection to the Lov?sz extension of submodular set functions. Details will be given elsewhere. 4 Conclusion The main goal of this paper is to understand when the proximal map of the sum of functions decomposes into the composition of the proximal maps of the individual functions. Using a simple sufficient condition we are able to completely characterize the decomposition when certain scaling invariance is exhibited. The generalization to cone invariance is also considered and we recover many known decomposition results, with some new ones obtained almost effortlessly. In the future we plan to generalize some of the results here to nonconvex functions. Acknowledgement The author thanks Bob Williamson and Xinhua Zhang from NICTA?Canberra for their hospitality during the author?s visit when part of this work was performed; Warren Hare, Yves Lucet, and Heinz Bauschke from UBC?Okanagan for some discussions around Theorem 4; and the reviewers for their valuable comments. 8 References [1] Bernhard Scholk?pf and Alexander J. Smola. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. MIT Press, 2001. [2] Peter B?hlmann and Sara van de Geer. Statistics for High-Dimensional Data. Springer, 2011. [3] Patrick L. Combettes and Val?rie R. Wajs. Signal recovery by proximal forward-backward splitting. Multiscale Modeling and Simulation, 4(4):1168?1200, 2005. [4] Amir Beck and Marc Teboulle. A fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm for linear inverse problems. SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 2(1):183?202, 2009. [5] Yurii Nesterov. Gradient methods for minimizing composite functions. 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Owen. A robust hybrid of lasso and ridge regression. In Prediction and Discovery, pages 59?72. AMS, 2007. [19] V. Chandrasekaran, B. Recht, P. A. Parrilo, and A. S. Willsky. The convex geometry of linear inverse problems. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 12(6):805?849, 2012. [20] Xinhua Zhang, Yaoliang Yu, and Dale Schuurmans. Polar operators for structured sparse estimation. In NIPS, 2013. [21] Howard Bondell and Brian Reich. Simultaneous regression shrinkage, variable selection, and supervised clustering of predictors with oscar. Biometrics, 64(1):115?123, 2008. [22] Leon Wenliang Zhong and James T. Kwok. Efficient sparse modeling with automatic feature grouping. In ICML, 2011. [23] John Duchi and Yoram Singer. Efficient online and batch learning using forward backward splitting. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:2899?2934, 2009. 9
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Non-Uniform Camera Shake Removal Using a Spatially-Adaptive Sparse Penalty ? Haichao Zhang?? and David Wipf ? School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi?an, China ? Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University, USA ? Visual Computing Group, Microsoft Research Asia, Beijing, China [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Typical blur from camera shake often deviates from the standard uniform convolutional assumption, in part because of problematic rotations which create greater blurring away from some unknown center point. Consequently, successful blind deconvolution for removing shake artifacts requires the estimation of a spatiallyvarying or non-uniform blur operator. Using ideas from Bayesian inference and convex analysis, this paper derives a simple non-uniform blind deblurring algorithm with a spatially-adaptive image penalty. Through an implicit normalization process, this penalty automatically adjust its shape based on the estimated degree of local blur and image structure such that regions with large blur or few prominent edges are discounted. Remaining regions with modest blur and revealing edges therefore dominate on average without explicitly incorporating structureselection heuristics. The algorithm can be implemented using an optimization strategy that is virtually tuning-parameter free and simpler than existing methods, and likely can be applied in other settings such as dictionary learning. Detailed theoretical analysis and empirical comparisons on real images serve as validation. 1 Introduction Image blur is an undesirable degradation that often accompanies the image formation process and may arise, for example, because of camera shake during acquisition. Blind image deblurring strategies aim to recover a sharp image from only a blurry, compromised observation. Extensive efforts have been devoted to the uniform blur (shift-invariant) case, which can be described with the convolutional model y = k ? x + n, where x is the unknown sharp image, y is the observed blurry image, k is the unknown blur kernel (or point spread function), and n is a zero-mean Gaussian noise term [6, 21, 17, 5, 28, 14, 1, 27, 29]. Unfortunately, many real-world photographs contain blur effects that vary across the image plane, such as when unknown rotations are introduced by camera shake [17]. More recently, algorithms have been generalized to explicitly handle some degree of non-uniform blur using the more general observation model y = Hx+ n, where each column of the blur operator H contains the spatially-varying effective blur kernel at the corresponding pixel site [25, 7, 8, 9, 11, 4, 22, 12]. Note that the original uniform blur model can be achieved equivalently when H is forced to adopt certain structure (e.g., block-toeplitz structure with toeplitz-blocks). In general, nonuniform blur may arise under several different contexts. This paper will focus on the blind removal of non-uniform blur caused by general camera shake (as opposed to blur from object motion) using only a single image, with no additional hardware assistance. While existing algorithms for addressing non-uniform camera shake have displayed a measure of success, several important limitations remain. First, some methods require either additional spe1 cialized hardware such as high-speed video capture [23] or inertial measurement sensors [13] for estimating motion, or else multiple images of the same scene [4]. Secondly, even the algorithms that operate given only data from a single image typically rely on carefully engineered initializations, heuristics, and trade-off parameters for selecting salient image structure or edges, in part to avoid undesirable degenerate, no-blur solutions [7, 8, 9, 11]. Consequently, enhancements and rigorous analysis may be problematic. To address these shortcomings, we present an alternative blind deblurring algorithm built upon a simple, closed-form cost function that automatically discounts regions of the image that contain little information about the blur operator without introducing any additional salient structure selection steps. This transparency leads to a nearly tuning-parameter free algorithm based upon a sparsity penalty whose shape adapts to the estimated degree of local blur, and provides theoretical arguments regarding how to robustly handle non-uniform degradations. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 briefly describes relevant existing work on non-uniform blind deblurring operators and implementation techniques. Section 3 then introduces the proposed non-uniform blind deblurring model, while further theoretical justification and analyses are provided in Section 4. Experimental comparisons with state-of-the-art methods are carried out in Section 5 followed by conclusions in Section 6. 2 Non-Uniform Deblurring Operators Perhaps the most direct way of handling non-uniform blur is to simply partition the image into different regions and then learn a separate, uniform blur kernel for each region, possibly with an additional weighting function for smoothing the boundaries between two adjacent kernels. The resulting algorithm has been adopted extensively [18, 8, 22, 12] and admits an efficient implementation called efficient filter flow (EFF) [10]. The downside with this type of model is that geometric relationships between the blur kernels of different regions derived from the the physical motion path of the camera are ignored. In contrast, to explicitly account for camera motion, the projective motion path (PMP) model [23] treats a blurry image as the weighted summation of projectively transformed sharp images, leading to the revised observation model  y= wj Pj x + n, (1) j where Pj is the j-th projection or homography operator (a combination of rotations and translations) and wj is the corresponding combination weight representing the proportion of time spent at that particular camera pose during exposure. The uniform convolutional model can be obtained by restricting the general projection operators {P j } to be translations. In this regard, (1) represents a more general model that has been used in many recent non-uniform deblurring efforts [23, 25, 7, 11, 4]. PMP also retains the bilinear property of uniform convolution, meaning that where H = y = Hx + n = Dw + n,  j (2) wj Pj and D = [P1 x, P2 x, ? ? ? , Pj x, ? ? ? ] is a matrix of transformed sharp images. The disadvantage of PMP is that it typically leads to inefficient algorithms because the evaluation of the matrix-vector product Hx = Dw requires generating many expensive intermediate transformed images. However, EFF can be combined with the PMP model by introducing a set of basis images efficiently generated by transforming a grid of delta peak images [9]. The computational cost can be further reduced by using an active set for pruning out the projection operators with small responses [11]. 3 A New Non-Uniform Blind Deblurring Model Following previous work [6, 16], we will work in the derivative domain of images for ease of modeling and better performance, meaning that x ? R m and y ? Rn will denote the lexicographically ordered sharp and blurry image derivatives respectively. 1 1 The derivative filters used in this work are {[?1, 1], [?1, 1]T }. Other choices are also possible. 2 The observation model (1) is equivalent to the likelihood function   1 2 p(y|x, w) ? exp ? y ? Hx2 , 2? (3) where ? denotes the noise variance. Maximum likelihood estimation of x and w using (3) is clearly ill-posed and so further regularization is required to constrain the solution space. For this purpose we adopt the Gaussian prior p(x) ? N (x; 0, ?), where ?  diag[?] with ? = [? 1 , . . . , ?m ]T a vector of m hyperparameter variances, one for each element of x = [x 1 , . . . , xm ]T . While presently ? is unknown, if we first marginalize over the unknown x, we can estimate it jointly along with the blur parameters w and the unknown noise variance ?. This type II maximum likelihood procedure has been advocated in the context of sparse estimation, where the goal is to learn vectors with mostly zero-valued coefficients [24, 26]. The final sharp image can then be recovered using the estimated kernel and noise level along with standard non-blind deblurring algorithms (e.g., [15]). Mathematically, the proposed estimation scheme requires that we solve   ?1 max y + log H?HT + ?I , p(y|x, w)p(x)dx ? min yT H?HT + ?I ?,w,??0 ?,w,??0 (4) where a ? log transformation has been included for convenience. Clearly (4) does not resemble the traditional blind non-uniform deblurring script, where estimation proceeds using the more transparent penalized regression model [4, 7, 9]   min y ? Hx22 + ? g(xi ) + ? h(wj ) (5) x;w?0 i j and ? and ? are user-defined trade-off parameters, g is an image penalty which typically favors sparsity, and h is usually assumed to be quadratic. Despite the differing appearances however, (4) has some advantageous properties with respect to deconvolution problems. In particular, it is devoid of tuning parameters and it possesses more favorable minimization conditions. For example, consider the simplified non-uniform deblurring situation where the true x has a single non-zero element and H is defined such that each column indexed by i is independently parameterized with finite support symmetric around pixel i. Moreover, assume this support matches the true support of the unknown blur operator. Then we have the following: Lemma 1 Given the idealized non-uniform deblurring problem described above, the cost function (4) will be characterized by a unique minimizing solution that correctly locates the nonzero element in x and the corresponding true blur kernel at this location. No possible problem in the form of (5), with g(x) = |x|p , h(w) = wq , and {p, q} arbitrary non-negative scalars, can achieve a similar result (there will always exist either multiple different minimizing solutions or an global minima that does not produce the correct solution). This result, which can be generalized with additional effort, can be shown by expanding on some of the derivations in [26]. Although obviously the conditions upon which Lemma 1 is based are extremely idealized, it is nonetheless emblematic of the potential of the underlying cost function to avoid local minima, etc., and [26] contains complementary results in the case where H is fixed. While optimizing (4) is possible using various general techniques such as the EM algorithm, it is computationally expensive in part because of the high-dimensional determinants involved with realistic-sized images. Consequently we are presently considering various specially-tailored optimization schemes for future work. But for the present purposes, we instead minimize a convenient upper bound allowing us to circumvent such computational issues. Specifically, using Hadamard?s inequality we have log H?HT + ?I = n log ? + log |?| + log ??1 HT H + ??1 ? n log ? + log |?| + log ??1 diag HT H + ??1    ? i 22 + (n ? m) log ?, = (6) log ? + ?i w i ? i denotes the i-th column of H. Note that Hadamard?s inequality is applied by using where w ??1 HT H + ??1 = VT V for some matrix V = [v 1 , . . . , vm ]. We then have log |??1 HT H + ?1 ?1 ? | = 2 log |V| ? 2 log ( i vi 2 ) = log diag ??1 HT H + ? , leading to the stated result. 3 ? i 2 which appears in (6) can be viewed as a measure of the degree of local Also, the quantity  w blur at location i. Given the feasible region w ? 0 and without loss of generality the constraint  ? i 22 ? 1, where i wi = 1 for normalization purposes, it can easily be shown that 1/L ?  w ? i or column of H. The upper L is the maximum number of elements in any local blur kernel w bound is achieved when the local kernel is a delta solution, meaning only one nonzero element ? i 22 occurs when every element of and therefore minimal blur. In contrast, the lower bound on  w ? i has an equal value, constituting the maximal possible blur. This metric, which will influence w ? i 22 = wT (BTi Bi )w, where Bi  our analysis in the next section, can be computing using  w [P1 ei , P2 ei , ? ? ? , Pj ei , ? ? ? ] and ei denotes an all-zero image with a one at site i. In the uniform ? i 2 = w2 for all i. deblurring case, B Ti Bi = I ignoring edge effects, and therefore  w While optimizing (4) using the upper bound from (6) can be justified in part using Bayesian-inspired arguments and the lack of trade-off parameters, the augmented cost function unfortunately no longer satisfies Lemma 1. However, it is still well-equipped for estimating sparse image gradients and avoiding degenerate no-blur solutions. For example, consider the case of an asymptotically large image with iid distributed sparse image gradients, with some constant fraction exactly equal to zero and the remaining nonzero elements drawn from any continuous distribution.Now suppose that this image is corrupted with a non-uniform blur operator of the form H = j wj Pj , where the cardinality of the summation is finite and H satisfies minimal regularity conditions. Then it can be shown that any global minimum of (4), with or without the bound from (6), will produce the true blur operator. Related intuition applies when noise is present or when the image gradients are not exactly sparse (we will defer more detailed analysis to a future publication). Regardless, the simplified ?-dependent cost function is still far less intuitive than the penalized regression models dependent on x such as (5) that are typically employed for non-uniform blind deblurring. However, using the framework from [26], it can be shown that the kernel estimate obtained by this process is formally equivalent to the one obtained via  1 ? i 2 , ?) + (n ? m) log ?, min ?(|xi |w with (7) y ? Hx22 + x;w?0,??0 ? i   2u ? u ? 0. ?(u, ?)  + log 2? + u2 + u 4? + u2 u + 4? + u2 The optimization from (7) closely resembles a standard penalized regression (or equivalently MAP) problem used for blind deblurring. The primary distinction is the penalty term ?, which jointly regularizes x, w, and ? as discussed Section 4. The supplementary file derives a simple majorizationminimization algorithm for solving (7) along with additional implementational details. The underlying procedure is related to variational Bayesian (VB) models from [1, 16, 20]; however, these models are based on a completely different mean-field approximation and a uniform blur assumption, and they do not learn the noise parameter. Additionally, the analysis provided with these VB models is limited by relatively less transparent underlying cost functions. 4 Model Properties The proposed blind deblurring strategy involves simply minimizing (7); no additional steps for tradeoff parameter selection or structure/salient-edge detection are required unlike other state-of-the-art approaches. This section will examine theoretical properties of (7) that ultimately allow such a simple algorithm to succeed. First, we will demonstrate a form of intrinsic column normalization that facilitates the balanced sparse estimation of the unknown latent image and implicitly de-emphasizes regions with large blur and few dominate edges. Later we describe an appealing form of noisedependent shape adaptation that helps in avoiding local minima. While there are multiple, complementary perspectives for interpreting the behavior of this algorithm, more detailed analyses, as well as extensions to other types of underdetermined inverse problems such as dictionary learning, will be deferred to a later publication. 4.1 Column-Normalized Sparse Estimation ? i 2 it follows that (7) is exactly equivalent to solving Using the simple reparameterization z i  xi w  1 2  y ? Hz ?(|zi |, ?) + (n ? m) log ?, (8) min 2+ z;w?0,??0 ? i 4  is simply the 2 -column-normalized version of H. Moreover, where z = [z1 , . . . , zm ]T and H it can be shown that this ? is a concave, non-decreasing function of |z|, and hence represents a canonical sparsity-promoting penalty function with respect to z [26]. Consequently, noise and kernel dependencies notwithstanding, this reparameterization places the proposed cost function in a form exactly consistent with nearly all prototypical sparse regression problems, where  2 column normalization is ubiquitous, at least in part, to avoid favoring one column over another during the estimation process (which can potentially bias the solution). To understand the latter point, note  T Hz  ? 2yT Hz.  Among other things, because of the normalization, the  2 ? zT H that y ? Hz 2 T    are scaled quadratic factor H H now has a unit diagonal, and likewise the inner products y T H by the consistent induced  2 norms, which collectively avoids the premature favoring of any one element of z over another. Moreover, no additional heuristic kernel penalty terms such as in (5)  is in some sense self-regularized by the normalization. Additional ancillary are required since H benefits of (8) will be described in Section 4.2. Of course we can always apply the same reparameterization to existing algorithms in the form of (5). While this will indeed result in normalized columns and a properly balanced data-fit term, these raw norms will now appear in the penalty function g, giving the equivalent objective      22 + ? ? i ?1 min y ? Hz +? g zi w h(wj ). (9) 2 z;w?0 i j However, the presence of these norms now embedded in g may have undesirable consequences. ? i 2 is sparse or nearly so, Simply put, the problem (9) will favor solutions where the ratio z i /w ? i 2 big. If some z i is estimated which can be achieved by either making many z i zero or many  w to be zero (and many z i will provably be exactly zero at any local minima if g(x) is a concave, ? i 2 will be unconstrained. In contrast, non-decreasing function of |x|), then the corresponding  w ? i 2 to be large, i.e., if a given zi is non-zero, there will be a stronger push for the associated  w more like the delta kernel which maximizes the  2 norm. Thus, the relative penalization of the kernel norms will depend on the estimated local image gradients, and no-blur delta solutions may be arbitrarily favored in parts of the image plane dominated by edges, the very place where blur estimation information is paramount. ? i 2 , which quantify the degree of local blur as mentioned previIn reality, the local kernel norms  w ously, should be completely independent of the sparsity of the image gradients in the same location. This is of course because the different blurring effects from camera shake are independent of the locations of strong edges in a given scene, since the blur operator is only a function of camera motion (at least to first order approximation). One way to compensate for this independence would be ? i 2 removed from g. While this is possible in principle, enforcing to simply optimize (9) with  w the non-convex, and coupled constraints required to maintain normalized columns is extremely difficult. Another option would be to carefully choose ? and h to somehow compensate. In contrast, our algorithm handles these complications seamlessly without any additional penalty terms. 4.2 Noise-Dependent, Parameter-Free Homotopy Continuation Column normalization can be viewed as a principled first step towards solving challenging sparse estimation problems. However, when non-convex sparse regularizers are used for the image penalty, e.g., p norms with p < 1, then local minima can be a significant problem. The rationalization for using such potentially problematic non-convexity is as follows; more details can be found in [17, 27]. When applied to a sharp image, any blur operator will necessarily contribute two opposing  effects: (i) It reduces a measure of the image sparsity, which normally increases thepenalty i |yi |p , and p (ii) It broadly reduces the overall image variance, which actually reduces i |yi | . Additionally, the greater the degree of blur, the more effect (ii) will begin to overshadow (i). Note that we can always apply greater and greater blur to any sharp image x such that the variance of the resulting blurry y is arbitrarily small. This then produces an arbitrarily small  p norm, which implies that   p p |y | < |x | , meaning that the penalty actually favors the blurry image over the sharp one. i i i i In a practical sense though, the amount of blur that can be tolerated before this undesirable preference for y over x occurs is much larger as p approaches zero. This is because the more concave the image penalty becomes (as a function of coefficient magnitudes), the less sensitive it is to image variance and the more sensitive it is to image sparsity. In fact the scale-invariant special case where 5 p ? 0 depends only on sparsity, or the number of elements that are exactly equal to zero. 2 We may therefore expect such a highly concave, sparsity promoting penalty to favor the sharp image over the blurry one in a broader range of blur conditions. Even with other families of penalty functions the same basic notion holds: greater concavity means greater sparsity preference and less sensitivity to variance changes that favor no-blur degenerate solutions. From an implementational standpoint, homotopy continuation methods provide one attractive means of dealing with difficult non-convex penalty functions and the associated constellation of local minima [3]. The basic idea is to use a parameterized family of sparsity-promoting functions g(x; ?), where different values of ? determine the relative degree of concavity allowing a transition from something convex such as the  1 norm (with ? large) to something concave such as the 0 norm (with ? small). Moreover, to ensure cost function descent (see below), we also require that g(x; ?2 ) ? g(x; ?1 ) whenever ?2 ? ?1 , noting that this rules out simply setting ? = p and using the family of  p norms. We then begin optimization with a large ? value; later as the estimation progresses and hopefully we are near a reasonably good basin of attraction, ? is reduced introducing greater concavity, a process which is repeated until convergence, all the while guaranteeing cost function descent. While potentially effective in practice, homotopy continuation methods require both a trade-off parameter for g(x; ?) and a pre-defined schedule or heuristic for adjusting ?, both of which could potentially be image dependent. The proposed deblurring algorithm automatically implements a form of noise-dependent, parameterfree homotopy continuation with several attractive auxiliary properties [26]. To make this claim precise and facilitate subsequent analysis, we first introduce the definition of relative concavity [19]: Definition 1 Let u be a strictly increasing function on [a, b]. The function ? is concave relative to  u on the interval [a, b] if and only if ?(y) ? ?(x) + u?  (x) (x) [u(y) ? u(x)] holds ?x, y ? [a, b]. We will use ? ? u to denote that ? is concave relative to u on [0, ?). This can be understood as a natural generalization of the traditional notion of a concavity, in that a concave function is equivalently concave relative to a linear function per Definition 1. In general, if ? ? u, then when ? and u are set to have the same functional value and the same slope at any given point (i.e., by an affine transformation of u), then ? lies completely under u. In the context of homotopy continuation, an ideal candidate penalty would be one for which g(x; ? 1 ) ? g(x; ?2 ) whenever ?1 ? ?2 . This would ensure that greater sparsity-inducing concavity is introduced as ? is reduced. We now demonstrate that ?(|z|, ?) is such a function, with ? occupying the role of ?. This dependency on the noise parameter is unlike other continuation methods and ultimately leads to several attractive attributes. Theorem  1 If ?1 < ?2 , then ?(u, ?1 ) ? ?(u, ?2 ) for u ? 0. Additionally, in the limit as ? ? 0, scaling and translation). then i ?(|zi |, ?) converges to the  0 norm (up to an inconsequential ?  Conversely, as ? becomes large, i ?(|zi |, ?) converges to 2z1 / ?. The proof has been deferred to the supplementary file. The relevance of this result can be understood as follows. First, at the beginning of the optimization process ? will be large both because of initialization and because we have not yet found a relatively sparse z and associated w such that y can be well-approximated; hence the estimated ? should not be small. Based on Theorem 1, in this regime (8) approaches ?  22 + 2 ?z1 min y ? Hz (10) z assuming w and ? are fixed. Note incidentally that this square-root dependency on ?, which arises naturally from our model, is frequently advocated when performing regular  1 -norm penalized sparse regression given that the true noise variance is ? [2]. Additionally, because ? must be relatively large to arrive at this  1 approximation, the estimation need only focus on reproducing the largest elements in z since the sparse penalty will dominate the data fit term. Furthermore, these larger elements are on average more likely to be in regions of relatively lower blurring or high ? i 2 value by virtue of the reparameterization z i = xi w ? i 2 . Consequently, the less concave w ? i 2 , initial estimation can proceed successfully by de-emphasizing regions with high blur or low  w and focusing on coarsely approximating regions with relatively less blur. 2 Note that even if the true sharp image is not exactly sparse, as long as it can be reasonably wellapproximated by some exactly sparse image in an 2 norm sense, then the analysis here still holds [27]. 6 Elephant Blurry Spatially Non-Adaptive Spatially Adaptive Blur-map Figure 1: Effectiveness of spatially-adaptive sparsity. From left to right: the blurry image, the deblurred image and estimated local kernels without spatially-adaptive column normalization, the analogous results with this normalization and its spatially-varying impact on image estimation, and ? i ?1 the associated map of  w 2 , which reflects the degree of estimated local blurring. Later as the estimation proceeds and w and z are refined, ? will be reduced which in turn necessarily increases the relative concavity of the penalty ? per Theorem 1. However, the added concavity will now be welcome for resolving increasingly fine details uncovered by a lower noise variance and the concomitant boosted importance of the data fidelity term, especially since many of these uncovered details may reside near increasingly blurry regions of the image and we need to avoid unwanted noblur solutions. Eventually the penalty can even approach the  0 norm (although images are generally not exactly sparse, and other noise factors and unmodeled artifacts are usually present such that ? will never go all the way to zero). Importantly, all of this implicit, spatially-adaptive penalization occurs without the need for trade-off parameters or additional structure selection measures, meaning carefully engineered heuristics designed to locate prominent edges such that good global solutions can be found without strongly concave image penalties [21, 5, 28, 8, 9]. Figure 1 displays results of this procedure both with and without the spatially-varying column normalizations and the implicit adaptive penalization that help compensate for locally varying image blur. 5 Experimental Results This section compares the proposed method with several state-of-the-art algorithms for non-uniform blind deblurring using real-world images from previously published papers (note that source code is not available for conducting more widespread evaluations with most algorithms). The supplementary file contains a number of additional comparisons, including assessments with a benchmark uniform blind deblurring dataset where ground truth is available. Overall, our algorithm consistently performs comparably or better on all of these respective images. Experimental specifics of our implementation (e.g., regarding the non-blind deblurring step, projection operators, etc.) are also contained in the supplementary file for space considerations. Comparison with Harmeling et al. [8] and Hirsch et al. [9]: Results are based on three test images provided in [8]. Figure 2 displays deblurring comparisons based on the Butchershop and Vintage-car images. In both cases, the proposed algorithm reveals more fine details than the other methods, despite its simplicity and lack of salient structure selection heuristics or trade-off parameters. Note that with these images, ground truth blur kernels were independently estimated using a special capturing process [8]. As shown in the supplementary file, the estimated blur kernel patterns obtained from our algorithm better resemble the ground truth relative to the other methods, a performance result that compensates for any differences in the non-blind step. Comparison with Whyte et al. [25]: Results on the Pantheon test image from [25] are shown in Figure 3 (top row), where we observe that the deblurred image from Whyte et al. has noticeable ringing artifacts. In contrast, our result is considerably cleaner. Comparison with Gupta et al. [7]: We next experiment using the test image Building from [7], which contains large rotational blurring that can be challenging for blind deblurring algorithms. Figure 3 (middle row) reveals that our algorithm contains less ringing and more fine details relative to Gupta et al. Comparison with Joshi et al. [13]: Joshi et al. presents a deblurring algorithm that relies upon additional hardware for estimating camera motion [13]. However, even without this additional in7 Butchershop Vintage-car B LURRY H ARMELING H IRSCH O UR B LURRY H ARMELING H IRSCH O UR Pantheon Figure 2: Non-uniform deblurring results. Comparison with Harmeling [8] and Hirsch [9] on real-world images. (better viewed electronically with zooming) W HYTE O UR B LURRY G UPTA O UR B LURRY J OSHI O UR Sculpture Building B LURRY Figure 3: Non-uniform deblurring results. Comparison with Whyte [25], Gupta [7], and Joshi [13] on real-world images. (better viewed electronically with zooming) formation, our algorithm produces a better sharp estimate of the Sculpture image from [13], with fewer ringing artifacts and higher resolution details. See Figure 3 (bottom row). 6 Conclusion This paper presents a strikingly simple yet effective method for non-uniform camera shake removal based upon a principled, transparent cost function that is open to analysis and further extensions/refinements. For example, it can be combined with the model from [29] to perform joint multi-image alignment, denoising, and deblurring. Both theoretical and empirical evidence are provided demonstrating the efficacy of the blur-dependent, spatially-adaptive sparse regularization which emerges from our model. The framework also suggests exploring other related cost functions that, while deviating from the original probabilistic script, ? nonetheless share similar properties. One  ? i 2 ); many others are possible. such simple example is a penalty of the form i log( ? + |xi |w Acknowledgements This work was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61231016). 8 References [1] S. D. Babacan, R. Molina, M. N. Do, and A. K. Katsaggelos. Bayesian blind deconvolution with general sparse image priors. In ECCV, 2012. [2] E. Cand?s and Y. Plan. Near-ideal model selection by  1 minimization. The Annals of Statistics, (5A):2145?2177. [3] R. Chartrand and W. Yin. Iteratively reweighted algorithms for compressive sensing. In ICASSP, 2008. [4] S. Cho, H. Cho, Y.-W. Tai, and S. Lee. Registration based non-uniform motion deblurring. Comput. Graph. Forum, 31(7-2):2183?2192, 2012. [5] S. Cho and S. Lee. Fast motion deblurring. In SIGGRAPH ASIA, 2009. [6] R. Fergus, B. Singh, A. Hertzmann, S. T. Roweis, and W. T. Freeman. Removing camera shake from a single photograph. In SIGGRAPH, 2006. [7] A. Gupta, N. Joshi, C. L. Zitnick, M. Cohen, and B. Curless. Single image deblurring using motion density functions. In ECCV, 2010. [8] S. Harmeling, M. Hirsch, and B. Sch?lkopf. Space-variant single-image blind deconvolution for removing camera shake. In NIPS, 2010. [9] M. Hirsch, C. J. Schuler, S. Harmeling, and B. Sch?lkopf. Fast removal of non-uniform camera shake. In ICCV, 2011. [10] M. Hirsch, S. Sra, B. Scholkopf, and S. Harmeling. Efficient filter flow for space-variant multiframe blind deconvolution. In CVPR, 2010. [11] Z. Hu and M.-H. Yang. Fast non-uniform deblurring using constrained camera pose subspace. In BMVC, 2012. [12] H. Ji and K. Wang. A two-stage approach to blind spatially-varying motion deblurring. In CVPR, 2012. [13] N. Joshi, S. B. Kang, C. L. Zitnick, and R. Szeliski. Image deblurring using inertial measurement sensors. In ACM SIGGRAPH, 2010. [14] D. Krishnan, T. Tay, and R. Fergus. Blind deconvolution using a normalized sparsity measure. In CVPR, 2011. [15] A. Levin, R. Fergus, F. Durand, and W. T. Freeman. Deconvolution using natural image priors. Technical report, MIT, 2007. [16] A. Levin, Y. Weiss, F. Durand, and W. T. Freeman. Efficient marginal likelihood optimization in blind deconvolution. In CVPR, 2011. [17] A. Levin, Y. Weiss, F. Durand, and W. T. Freeman. Understanding blind deconvolution algorithms. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 33(12):2354?2367, 2011. [18] J. G. Nagy and D. P. O?Leary. Restoring images degraded by spatially variant blur. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 19(4):1063?1082, 1998. [19] J. A. Palmer. Relatve convexity. Technical report, UCSD, 2003. [20] J. A. Palmer, D. P. Wipf, K. Kreutz-Delgado, and B. D. Rao. Variational EM algorithms for non-Gaussian latent variable models. In NIPS, 2006. [21] Q. Shan, J. Jia, and A. Agarwala. High-quality motion deblurring from a single image. In SIGGRAPH, 2008. [22] M. Sorel and F. Sroubek. Image Restoration: Fundamentals and Advances. CRC Press, 2012. [23] Y.-W. Tai, P. Tan, and M. S. Brown. Richardson-Lucy deblurring for scenes under a projective motion path. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 33(8):1603?1618, 2011. [24] M. E. Tipping. Sparse bayesian learning and the relevance vector machine. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 1:211?244, 2001. [25] O. Whyte, J. Sivic, A. Zisserman, and J. Ponce. Non-uniform deblurring for shaken images. In CVPR, 2010. [26] D. P. Wipf, B. D. Rao, and S. S. Nagarajan. Latent variable Bayesian models for promoting sparsity. IEEE Trans. Information Theory, 57(9):6236?6255, 2011. [27] D. P. Wipf and H. Zhang. Revisiting Bayesian blind deconvolution. submitted to Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2013. [28] L. Xu and J. Jia. Two-phase kernel estimation for robust motion deblurring. In ECCV, 2010. [29] H. Zhang, D. P. Wipf, and Y. Zhang. Multi-image blind deblurring using a coupled adaptive sparse prior. In CVPR, 2013. 9
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Provable Subspace Clustering: When LRR meets SSC Yu-Xiang Wang School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA [email protected] Huan Xu Dept. of Mech. Engineering National Univ. of Singapore Singapore, 117576 [email protected] Chenlei Leng Department of Statistics University of Warwick Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK [email protected] Abstract Sparse Subspace Clustering (SSC) and Low-Rank Representation (LRR) are both considered as the state-of-the-art methods for subspace clustering. The two methods are fundamentally similar in that both are convex optimizations exploiting the intuition of ?Self-Expressiveness?. The main difference is that SSC minimizes the vector `1 norm of the representation matrix to induce sparsity while LRR minimizes nuclear norm (aka trace norm) to promote a low-rank structure. Because the representation matrix is often simultaneously sparse and low-rank, we propose a new algorithm, termed Low-Rank Sparse Subspace Clustering (LRSSC), by combining SSC and LRR, and develops theoretical guarantees of when the algorithm succeeds. The results reveal interesting insights into the strength and weakness of SSC and LRR and demonstrate how LRSSC can take the advantages of both methods in preserving the ?Self-Expressiveness Property? and ?Graph Connectivity? at the same time. 1 Introduction We live in the big data era ? a world where an overwhelming amount of data is generated and collected every day, such that it is becoming increasingly impossible to process data in its raw form, even though computers are getting exponentially faster over time. Hence, compact representations of data such as low-rank approximation (e.g., PCA [13], Matrix Completion [4]) and sparse representation [6] become crucial in understanding the data with minimal storage. The underlying assumption is that high-dimensional data often lie in a low-dimensional subspace [4]). Yet, when such data points are generated from different sources, they form a union of subspaces. Subspace Clustering deals with exactly this structure by clustering data points according to their underlying subspaces. Application include motion segmentation and face clustering in computer vision [16, 8], hybrid system identification in control [26, 2], community clustering in social networks [12], to name a few. Numerous algorithms have been proposed to tackle the problem. Recent examples include GPCA [25], Spectral Curvature Clustering [5], Sparse Subspace Clustering (SSC) [7, 8], Low Rank Representation (LRR) [17, 16] and its noisy variant LRSC [9] (for a more exhaustive survey of subspace clustering algorithms, we refer readers to the excellent survey paper [24] and the references therein). Among these algorithms, LRR and SSC, based on minimizing the nuclear norm and `1 norm of the representation matrix respectively, remain the top performers on the Hopkins155 motion segmentation benchmark dataset [23]. Moreover, they are among the few subspace clustering algorithms supported with theoretic guarantees: Both algorithms are known to succeed when the subspaces are independent [27, 16]. Later, [8] showed that subspace being disjoint is sufficient for SSC to succeed1 , and [22] further relaxed this condition to include some cases of overlapping 1 Disjoint subspaces only intersect at the origin. It is a less restrictive assumption comparing to independent subspaces, e.g., 3 coplanar lines passing the origin are not independent, but disjoint. 1 subspaces. Robustness of the two algorithms has been studied too. Liu et al. [18] showed that a variant of LRR works even in the presence of some arbitrarily large outliers, while Wang and Xu [29] provided both deterministic and randomized guarantees for SSC when data are noisy or corrupted. Despite LRR and SSC?s success, there are questions unanswered. LRR has never been shown to succeed other than under the very restrictive ?independent subspace? assumption. SSC?s solution is sometimes too sparse that the affinity graph of data from a single subspace may not be a connected body [19]. Moreover, as our experiment with Hopkins155 data shows, the instances where SSC fails are often different from those that LRR fails. Hence, a natural question is whether combining the two algorithms lead to a better method, in particular since the underlying representation matrix we want to recover is both low-rank and sparse simultaneously. In this paper, we propose Low-Rank Sparse Subspace Clustering (LRSSC), which minimizes a weighted sum of nuclear norm and vector 1-norm of the representation matrix. We show theoretical guarantees for LRSSC that strengthen the results in [22]. The statement and proof also shed insight on why LRR requires independence assumption. Furthermore, the results imply that there is a fundamental trade-off between the interclass separation and the intra-class connectivity. Indeed, our experiment shows that LRSSC works well in cases where data distribution is skewed (graph connectivity becomes an issue for SSC) and subspaces are not independent (LRR gives poor separation). These insights would be useful when developing subspace clustering algorithms and applications. We remark that in the general regression setup, the simultaneous nuclear norm and 1-norm regularization has been studied before [21]. However, our focus is on the subspace clustering problem, and hence the results and analysis are completely different. 2 Problem Setup Notations: We denote the data matrix by X ? Rn?N , where each column of X (normalized to unit vector) belongs to a union of L subspaces S1 ? S2 ? ... ? SL . Each subspace ` contains N` data samples with N1 + N2 + ... + NL = N . We observe the noisy data matrix X. Let X (`) ? Rn?N` denote the selection (as a set and a matrix) of columns in X that belong to S` ? Rn , which is an d` -dimensional subspace. Without loss of generality, let X = [X (1) , X (2) , ..., X (L) ] be ordered. In addition, we use k ? k to represent Euclidean norm (for vectors) or spectral norm (for matrices) throughout the paper. Method: We solve the following convex optimization problem LRSSC : min kCk? + ?kCk1 C s.t. X = XC, diag(C) = 0. (1) Spectral clustering techniques (e.g., [20]) are then applied on the affinity matrix W = |C| + |C|T where C is the solution to (1) to obtain the final clustering and | ? | is the elementwise absolute value. Criterion of success: In the subspace clustering task, as opposed to compressive sensing or matrix completion, there is no ?ground-truth? C to compare the solution against. Instead, the algorithm succeeds if each sample is expressed as a linear combination of samples belonging to the same subspace, i.e., the output matrix C are block diagonal (up to appropriate permutation) with each subspace cluster represented by a disjoint block. Formally, we have the following definition. Definition 1 (Self-Expressiveness Property (SEP)). Given subspaces {S` }L `=1 and data points X from these subspaces, we say a matrix C obeys Self-Expressiveness Property, if the nonzero entries of each ci (ith column of C) corresponds to only those columns of X sampled from the same subspace as xi . Note that the solution obeying SEP alone does not imply the clustering is correct, since each block may not be fully connected. This is the so-called ?graph connectivity? problem studied in [19]. On the other hand, failure to achieve SEP does not necessarily imply clustering error either, as the spectral clustering step may give a (sometimes perfect) solution even when there are connections between blocks. Nevertheless, SEP is the condition that verifies the design intuition of SSC and LRR. Notice that if C obeys SEP and each block is connected, we immediately get the correct clustering. 2 3 Theoretic Guanratees 3.1 The Deterministic Setup Before we state our theoretical results for the deterministic setup, we need to define a few quantities. Definition 2 (Normalized dual matrix set). Let {?1 (X)} be the set of optimal solutions to max hX, ?1 i s.t. ?1 ,?2 ,?3 k?2 k? ? ?, kX T ?1 ? ?2 ? ?3 k ? 1, diag? (?3 ) = 0, where k ? k? is the vector `? norm and diag? selects all the off-diagonal entries. Let ?? = ? [?1? , ..., ?N ] ? {?1 (X)} obey ?i? ? span(X) for every i = 1, ..., N .2 For every ? = [?1 , ..., ?N ] ? {?1 (X)}, we define normalized dual matrix V for X as   ?1 ?N V (X) , , ..., ? k , k?1? k k?N and the normalized dual matrix set {V (X)} as the collection of V (X) for all ? ? {?1 (X)}. Definition 3 (Minimax subspace incoherence property). Compactly denote V (`) = V (X (`) ). We say the vector set X (`) is ?-incoherent to other points if ? ? ?(X (`) ) := min V max (`) ?{V (`) } x?X\X (`) T kV (`) xk? . The incoherence ? in the above definition measures how separable the sample points in S` are against sample points in other subspaces (small ? represents more separable data). Our definition differs from Soltanokotabi and Candes?s definition of subspace incoherence [22] in that it is defined as a minimax over all possible dual directions. It is easy to see that ?-incoherence in [22, Definition 2.4] implies ?-minimax-incoherence as their dual direction are contained in {V (X)}. In fact, in several interesting cases, ? can be significantly smaller under the new definition. We illustrate the point with the two examples below and leave detailed discussions in the supplementary materials. Example P1 (Independent Subspace). Suppose the subspaces are independent, i.e., dim(S1 ? ... ? SL ) = `=1,...,L dim(S` ), then all X (`) are 0-incoherent under our Definition 3. This is because for each X (`) one can always find a dual matrix V (`) ? {V (`) } whose column space is orthogonal to the span of all other subspaces. To contrast, the incoherence parameter according to Definition 2.4 in [22] will be a positive value, potentially large if the angles between subspaces are small. Example 2 (Random except 1 subspace). Suppose we have L disjoint 1-dimensional subspaces in Rn (L > n). S1 , ..., SL?1 subspaces are randomly drawn. SL is chosen such that its angle to one of the L ? 1 subspace, say S1 , is ?/6. Then the incoherence parameter ?(X (L) ) defined in [22] is at q least cos(?/6). However under our new definition, it is not difficult to show that ?(X (L) ) ? 2 6 log(L) n with high probability3 . The result also depends on the smallest singular value of a rank-d matrix (denoted by ?d ) and the inradius of a convex body as defined below. Definition 4 (inradius). The inradius of a convex body P, denoted by r(P), is defined as the radius of the largest Euclidean ball inscribed in P. The smallest singular value and inradius measure how well-represented each subspace is by its data samples. Small inradius/singular value implies either insufficient data, or skewed data distribution, in other word, it means that the subspace is ?poorly represented?. Now we may state our main result. Theorem 1 (LRSSC). Self-expressiveness property holds for the solution of (1) on the data X if there exists a weighting parameter ? such that for all ` = 1, ..., L, one of the following two conditions holds: p (`) ?(X (`) )(1 + ? N` ) < ? min ?d` (X?k ), (2) k or ?(X (`) (`) )(1 + ?) < ? min r(conv(?X?k )), k 2 (3) If this is not unique, pick the one with least Frobenious norm. The full proof is given in the supplementary. Also it is easy to generalize this example to d-dimensional subspaces and to ?random except K subspaces?. 3 3 (`) where X?k denotes X with its k th column removed and ?d` (X?k ) represents the dth ` (smallest (`) non-zero) singular value of the matrix X?k . We briefly explain the intuition of the proof. The theorem is proven by duality. First we write out the dual problem of (1), Dual LRSSC : max hX, ?1 i s.t. k?2 k? ? ?, kX T ?1 ? ?2 ? ?3 k ? 1, diag? (?3 ) = 0. ?1 ,?2 ,?3 This leads to a set of optimality conditions, and leaves us to show the existence of a dual certificate satisfying these conditions. We then construct two levels of fictitious optimizations (which is the main novelty of the proof) and construct a dual certificate from the dual solution of the fictitious optimization problems. Under condition (2) and (3), we establish this dual certifacte meets all optimality conditions, hence certifying that SEP holds. Due to space constraints, we defer the detailed proof to the supplementary materials and focus on the discussions of the results in the main text. Remark 1 (SSC). Theorem 1 can be considered a generalization of Theorem 2.5 of [22]. Indeed, when ? ? ?, (3) reduces to the following (`) ?(X (`) ) < min r(conv(?X?k )). k The readers may observe that this is exactly the same as Theorem 2.5 of [22], with the only difference being the definition of ?. Since our definition of ?(X (`) ) is tighter (i.e., smaller) than that in [22], our guarantee for SSC is indeed stronger. Theorem 1 also implies that the good properties of SSC (such as overlapping subspaces, large dimension) shown in [22] are also valid for LRSSC for a range of ? greater than a threshold. To further illustrate the key difference from [22], we describe the following scenario. Example 3 (Correlated/Poorly Represented Subspaces). Suppose the subspaces are poorly represented, i.e., the inradius r is small. If furthermore, the subspaces are highly correlated, i.e., canonical angles between subspaces are small, then the subspace incoherence ?0 defined in [22] can be quite large (close to 1). Thus, the succeed condition ?0 < r presented in [22] is violated. This is an important scenario because real data such as those in Hopkins155 and Extended YaleB often suffer from both problems, as illustrated in [8, Figure 9 & 10]. Using our new definition of incoherence ?, as long as the subspaces are ?sufficiently independent?4 (regardless of their correlation) ? will assume very small values (e.g., Example 2), making SEP possible even if r is small, namely when subspaces are poorly represented. Remark 2 (LRR). The guarantee is the strongest when ? ? ? and becomes superficial when ? ? 0 unless subspaces are independent (see Example 1). This seems to imply that the ?independent subspace? assumption used in [16, 18] to establish sufficient conditions for LRR (and variants) to work is unavoidable.5 On the other hand, for each problem instance, there is a ?? such that whenever ? > ?? , the result satisfies SEP, so we should expect phase transition phenomenon when tuning ?. Remark 3 (A tractable condition). Condition (2) is based on singular values, hence is computationally tractable. In contrast, the verification of (3) or the deterministic condition in [22] is NPComplete, as it involves computing the inradii of V-Polytopes [10]. When ? ? ?, Theorem 1 reduces to the first computationally tractable guarantee for SSC that works for disjoint and potentially overlapping subspaces. 3.2 Randomized Results We now present results for the random design case, i.e., data are generated under some random models. Definition 5 (Random data). ?Random sampling? assumes that for each `, data points in X (`) are iid uniformly distributed on the unit sphere of S` . ?Random subspace? assumes each S` is generated independently by spanning d` iid uniformly distributed vectors on the unit sphere of Rn . 4 5 Due to space constraint, the concept is formalized in supplementary materials. Our simulation in Section 6 also supports this conjecture. 4 Lemma 1 (Singular value bound). Assume random sampling. If d` < N` < n, then there exists an absolute constant C1 such that with probability of at least 1 ? N`?10 , ! r r r 1 N` log N` 1 N` ?d` (X) ? ? 3 ? C1 , or simply ?d` (X) ? , 2 d` d` 4 d` if we assume N` ? C2 d` , for some constant C2 . Lemma 2 (Inradius bound [1, 22]). Assume random sampling of N` = ?` d` data points in each S` , ? PL then with probability larger than 1 ? `=1 N` e? d` N` s log (?` ) (`) for all pairs (`, k). r(conv(?X?k )) ? c(?` ) 2d` ? Here, c(?` ) is a constant depending on ?` . When ?` is sufficiently large, we can take c(?` ) = 1/ 8. Combining Lemma 1 and Lemma 2, we get the following remark showing that conditions (2) and (3) are complementary. Remark 4. Under the random sampling assumption, when ? is smaller than a threshold, the q singular ` value condition (2) is better than the inradius condition (3). Specifically, ?d` (X) > 14 N d` with high probability, so for some constant C > 1, the singular value condition is strictly better if ?  p C N` ? log (N` /d` ) C , p or when N` is large, ? < ?< ?  . p 1 + log (N` /d` ) N` 1 + log (N` /d` ) By further assuming random subspace, we provide an upper bound of the incoherence ?. Lemma 3 (Subspace incoherence bound). Assume random subspace and random sampling. It holds with probability greater than 1 ? 2/N that for all `, r 6 log N (`) . ?(X ) ? n Combining Lemma 1 and Lemma 3, we have the following theorem. Theorem 2 (LRSSC for random data). Suppose L rank-d subspace are uniformly and independently generated from Rn , and N/L data points are uniformly and independently sampled from the unit sphere embedded in each subspace, furthermore N > CdL for some absolute constant C, then SEP holds with probability larger than 1 ? 2/N ? 1/(Cd)10 , if d< 1 n , for all ? > q q 96 log N N n L 96d log N . ?1 (4) The above condition is obtained from the singular value condition. Using the inradius guarantee, n log(?) combined with Lemma 2 and 3, we have a different succeed condition requiring d < 96 log N for all 1 . Ignoring constant terms, the condition on d is slightly better than (4) by a log ? > q n log ? 96d log N ?1 factor but the range of valid ? is significantly reduced. 4 Graph Connectivity Problem The graph connectivity problem concerns when SEP is satisfied, whether each block of the solution C to LRSSC represents a connected graph. The graph connectivity problem concerns whether each disjoint block (since SEP holds true) of the solution C to LRSSC represents a connected graph. This is equivalent to the connectivity of the solution of the following fictitious optimization problem, where each sample is constrained to be represented by the samples of the same subspace, min kC (`) k? + ?kC (`) k1 s.t. X (`) = X (`) C (`) , C (`) 5 diag(C (`) ) = 0. (5) The graph connectivity for SSC is studied by [19] under deterministic conditions (to make the problem well-posed). They show by a negative example that even if the well-posed condition is satisfied, the solution of SSC may not satisfy graph connectivity if the dimension of the subspace is greater than 3. On the other hand, graph connectivity problem is not an issue for LRR: as the following proposition suggests, the intra-class connections of LRR?s solution are inherently dense (fully connected). Proposition 1. When the subspaces are independent, X is not full-rank and the data points are randomly sampled from a unit sphere in each subspace, then the solution to LRR, i.e., min kCk? s.t. X = XC, C is class-wise dense, namely each diagonal block of the matrix C is all non-zero. The proof makes use of the following lemma which states the closed-form solution of LRR. Lemma 4 ([16]). Take skinny SVD of data matrix X = U ?V T . The closed-form solution to LRR is the shape interaction matrix C = V V T . Proposition 1 then follows from the fact that each entry of V V T has a continuous distribution, hence the probability that any is exactly zero is negligible (a complete argument is given in the supplementary). Readers may notice that when ? ? 0, (5) is not exactly LRR, but with an additional constraint that diagonal entries are zero. We suspect this constrained version also have dense solution. This is demonstrated numerically in Section 6. 5 5.1 Practical issues Data noise/sparse corruptions/outliers The natural extension of LRSSC to handle noise is 1 (6) min kX ? XCk2F + ?1 kCk? + ?2 kCk1 s.t. diag(C) = 0. C 2 We believe it is possible (but maybe tedious) to extend our guarantee to this noisy version following the strategy of [29] which analyzed the noisy version of SSC. This is left for future research. According to the noisy analysis of SSC, a rule of thumb of choosing the scale of ?1 and ?2 is ?( 1 ) ?( ? ) ?1 = ? 1+? , ?2 = ? 1+? , 2 log N 2 log N where ? is the tradeoff parameter used in noiseless case (1), ? is the estimated noise level and N is the total number of entries. In case of sparse corruption, one may use `1 norm penalty instead of the Frobenious norm. For outliers, SSC is proven to be robust to them under mild assumptions [22], and we suspect a similar argument should hold for LRSSC too. 5.2 Fast Numerical Algorithm As subspace clustering problem is usually large-scale, off-the-shelf SDP solvers are often too slow to use. Instead, we derive alternating direction methods of multipliers (ADMM) [3], known to be scalable, to solve the problem numerically. The algorithm involves separating out the two objectives and diagonal constraints with dummy variables C2 and J like min kC1 k? + ?kC2 k1 C1 ,C2 ,J (7) s.t. X = XJ, J = C2 ? diag(C2 ), J = C1 , and update J, C1 , C2 and the three dual variables alternatively. Thanks to the change of variables, all updates can be done in closed-form. To further speed up the convergence, we adopt the adaptive penalty mechanism of Lin et.al [15], which in some way ameliorates the problem of tuning numerical parameters in ADMM. Detailed derivations, update rules, convergence guarantee and the corresponding ADMM algorithm for the noisy version of LRSSC are made available in the supplementary materials. 6 6 Numerical Experiments To verify our theoretical results and illustrate the advantages of LRSSC, we design several numerical experiments. Due to space constraints, we discuss only two of them in the paper and leave the rest to the supplementary materials. In all our numerical experiments, we use the ADMM implementation of LRSSC with fixed set of numerical parameters. The results are given against an exponential grid of ? values, so comparisons to only 1-norm (SSC) and only nuclear norm (LRR) are clear from two ends of the plots. 6.1 Separation-Sparsity Tradeoff We first illustrate the tradeoff of the solution between obeying SEP and being connected (this is measured using the intra-class sparsity of the solution). We randomly generate L subspaces of dimension 10 from R50 . Then, 50 unit length random samples are drawn from each subspace and we concatenate into a 50 ? 50L data matrix. We use Relative Violation [29] to measure of the violation of SEP and Gini Index [11] to measure the intra-class sparsity6 . These quantities are defined below: P |C|i,j (i,j)?M / RelViolation (C, M) = P , (i,j)?M |C|i,j where M is the index set that contains all (i, j) such that xi , xj ? S` for some `. GiniIndex (C, M) is obtained by first sorting the absolute value of Cij?M into a non-decreasing sequence ~c = [c1 , ..., c|M| ], then evaluate GiniIndex (vec(CM )) = 1 ? 2   |M| X ck |M| ? k + 1/2 . k~ck1 |M| k=1 Note that RelViolation takes the value of [0, ?] and SEP is attained when RelViolation is zero. Similarly, Gini index takes its value in [0, 1] and it is larger when intra-class connections are sparser. The results for L = 6 and L = 11 are shown in Figure 1. We observe phase transitions for both metrics. When ? = 0 (corresponding to LRR), the solution does not obey SEP even when the independence assumption is only slightly violated (L = 6). When ? is greater than a threshold, RelViolation goes to zero. These observations match Theorems 1 and 2. On the other hand, when ? is large, intra-class sparsity is high, indicating possible disconnection within the class. Moreover, we observe that there exists a range of ? where RelViolation reaches zero yet the sparsity level does not reaches its maximum. This justifies our claim that the solution of LRSSC, taking ? within this range, can achieve SEP and at the same time keep the intra-class connections relatively dense. Indeed, for the subspace clustering task, a good tradeoff between separation and intra-class connection is important. 6.2 Skewed data distribution and model selection In this experiment, we use the data for L = 6 and combine the first two subspaces into one 20dimensional subspace and randomly sample 10 more points from the new subspace to ?connect? the 100 points from the original two subspaces together. This is to simulate the situation when data distribution is skewed, i.e., the data samples within one subspace has two dominating directions. The skewed distribution creates trouble for model selection (judging the number of subspaces), and intuitively, the graph connectivity problem might occur. We find that model selection heuristics such as the spectral gap [28] and spectral gap ratio [14] of the normalized Laplacian are good metrics to evaluate the quality of the solution of LRSSC. Here the correct number of subspaces is 5, so the spectral gap is the difference between the 6th and 5th smallest singular value and the spectral gap ratio is the ratio of adjacent spectral gaps. The larger these quantities, the better the affinity matrix reveals that the data contains 5 subspaces. 6 We choose Gini Index over the typical `0 to measure sparsity as the latter is vulnerable to numerical inaccuracy. 7 Figure 1: Illustration of the separation-sparsity trade-off. Left: 6 subspaces. Right: 11 subspace. Figure 2 demonstrates how singular values change when ? increases. When ? = 0 (corresponding to LRR), there is no significant drop from the 6th to the 5th singular value, hence it is impossible for either heuristic to identify the correct model. As ? increases, the last 5 singular values gets smaller and become almost zero when ? is large. Then the 5-subspace model can be correctly identified using spectral gap ratio. On the other hand, we note that the 6th singular value also shrinks as ? increases, which makes the spectral gap very small on the SSC side and leaves little robust margin for correct model selection against some violation of SEP. As is shown in Figure 3, the largest spectral gap and spectral gap ratio appear at around ? = 0.1, where the solution is able to benefit from both the better separation induced by the 1-norm factor and the relatively denser connections promoted by the nuclear norm factor. Figure 2: Last 20 singular values of the normalized Figure 3: Spectral Gap and Spectral Gap Laplacian in the skewed data experiment. Ratio in the skewed data experiment. 7 Conclusion and future works In this paper, we proposed LRSSC for the subspace clustering problem and provided theoretical analysis of the method. We demonstrated that LRSSC is able to achieve perfect SEP for a wider range of problems than previously known for SSC and meanwhile maintains denser intra-class connections than SSC (hence less likely to encounter the ?graph connectivity? issue). Furthermore, the results offer new understandings to SSC and LRR themselves as well as problems such as skewed data distribution and model selection. An important future research question is to mathematically define the concept of the graph connectivity, and establish conditions that perfect SEP and connectivity indeed occur together for some non-empty range of ? for LRSSC. Acknowledgments H. Xu is partially supported by the Ministry of Education of Singapore through AcRF Tier Two grant R-265-000-443-112 and NUS startup grant R-265-000-384-133. 8 References [1] D. Alonso-Guti?errez. On the isotropy constant of random convex sets. Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, 136(9):3293?3300, 2008. [2] L. Bako. 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Matrix Completion From any Given Set of Observations Troy Lee Nanyang Technological University and Centre for Quantum Technologies [email protected] Adi Shraibman Department of Computer Science Tel Aviv-Yaffo Academic College [email protected] Abstract In the matrix completion problem the aim is to recover an unknown real matrix from a subset of its entries. This problem comes up in many application areas, and has received a great deal of attention in the context of the netflix prize. A central approach to this problem is to output a matrix of lowest possible complexity (e.g. rank or trace norm) that agrees with the partially specified matrix. The performance of this approach under the assumption that the revealed entries are sampled randomly has received considerable attention (e.g. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]). In practice, often the set of revealed entries is not chosen at random and these results do not apply. We are therefore left with no guarantees on the performance of the algorithm we are using. We present a means to obtain performance guarantees with respect to any set of initial observations. The first step remains the same: find a matrix of lowest possible complexity that agrees with the partially specified matrix. We give a new way to interpret the output of this algorithm by next finding a probability distribution over the non-revealed entries with respect to which a bound on the generalization error can be proven. The more complex the set of revealed entries according to a certain measure, the better the bound on the generalization error. 1 Introduction In the matrix completion problem we observe a subset of the entries of a target matrix Y , and our aim is to retrieve the rest of the matrix. Obviously some restriction on the target matrix Y is unavoidable as otherwise it is impossible to retrieve even one missing entry; usually, it is assumed that Y is generated in a way so as to have low complexity according to a measure such as matrix rank. A common scheme for the matrix completion problem is to select a matrix X that minimizes some combination of the complexity of X and the distance between X and Y on the observed part. In particular, one can demand that X agrees with Y on the observed initial sample (i.e. the distance between X and Y on the observed part is zero). This general algorithm is described in Figure 1, and we refer to it as Alg1. It outputs a matrix with minimal complexity that agrees with Y on the initial sample S. The complexity measure can be rank, or a norm to serve as an efficiently computable proxy for the rank such as the trace norm or ?2 norm. When we wish to mention which complexity measure is used we write it explicitly, e.g. Alg1(?2 ). Our framework is suitable using any norm satisfying few simple conditions described in the sequel. The performance of Alg1 under the assumption that the initial subset is picked at random is well understood [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. This line of research can be divided into two parts. One line of research [5, 6, 4] studies conditions under which Alg1(Tr) retrieves the matrix exactly 1 . They 1 There are other papers studying exact matrix completion, e.g. [7]. 1 define what they call an incoherence property which quantifies how spread the singular vectors of Y are. The exact definition of the incoherence property varies in different results. It is then proved that if there are enough samples relative to the rank of Y and its incoherence property, then Alg1(Tr) retrieves the matrix Y exactly with high probability, assuming the samples are chosen uniformly at random. Note that in this line of research the trace norm is used as the complexity measure in the algorithm. It is not clear how to prove similar results with the ?2 norm. Candes and Recht [5] observed that it is impossible to reconstruct a matrix that has only one entry equal to 1 and zeros everywhere else, unless most of its entries are observed. Thus, exact matrix completion must assume some special property of the target matrix Y . In a second line of research, general results are proved regarding the performance of Alg1. These results are weaker in that they do not prove exact recovery, but rather bounds on the distance between the output matrix X and Y . But these results apply for every matrix Y , they can be generalized for non-uniform probability distributions, and also apply when the complexity measure is the ?2 norm. These results take the following form: Theorem 1 ([2]) Let Y be an n ? n real matrix, and P a probability distribution on pairs (i, j) ? [n]2 . Choose a sample S of |S| > n log n entries according to P . Then, with probability at least 1 ? 2?n/2 over the sample selection, the following holds: r X n Pij |Xij ? Yij | ? c?2 (X) . |S| i,j Where X is the output of the algorithm with sample S, and c is a universal constant. In practice, the assumption that the sample is random is not always valid. Sometimes the subset we see reflects our partial knowledge which is not random at all. What can we say about the output of the algorithm in this case? The analysis of random samples does not help us here, because these proofs do not reveal the structure that makes generalization possible. In order to answer this question we need to understand what properties of a sample enable generalization. A first step in this direction was taken in [9] where the initial subset was chosen deterministically as the set of edges of a good expander (more generally, a good sparsifier). Deterministic guarantees were proved for the algorithm in this case, that resemble the guarantees proved for random sampling. For example: Theorem 2 [9] Let S be the set of edges of a d-regular graph with second eigenvalue For every n ? n real matrix Y , if X is the output of Alg1 with initial subset S, then ? 1 X (Xij ? Yij )2 ? c?2 (Y )2 , n2 i,j d 2 bound ?. where c is a small universal constant. ? Recall that d-regular graphs with ? = O( d) can be constructed in linear time using e.g. the well-known LPS Ramanujan graphs [10]. This theorem was also generalized to bound the error with respect to any probability distribution. Instead of expanders, sparsifiers were used to select the entries to observe for this result. Theorem 3 [9] Let P be a probability distribution on pairs (i, j) ? [n]2 , and d > 1. There is an efficiently constructible set S ? [n]2 of size at most dn, such that for every n ? n real target matrix Y , if X is the output of our algorithm with initial subset S, then X 1 Pij (Xij ? Yij )2 ? c?2 (Y )2 ? . d i,j The results in [9] still do not answer the practical question of how to reconstruct a matrix from an arbitrary sample. In this paper we continue the work started in [9], and give a simple and general answer to this second question. We extend the results of [9] in several ways: 2 The eigenvalues are eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix of the graph. 2 1. We upper bound the generalization error of Alg1 given any set of initial observations. This bound depends on properties of the set of observed entries. 2. We show there is a probability distribution outside of the observed entries such that the generalization error under this distribution is bounded in terms of the complexity of the observed entries, under a certain complexity measure. 3. The results hold not only for ?2 but also for the trace norm, and in fact any norm satisfying a few basic properties. 2 Preliminaries Here we introduce some of the matrix notation and norms that we will be using. For matrices A, B of the same size, let A ? B denote the Hadamard or entrywise product of A and B. For a m-by-n matrix A with m ? n let ?1 (A) ? ? ? ? ? ?n (A) denote the singular values of A. The trace norm, denoted kAktr , is the `1 norm of the vector of singular values, and the Frobenius norm, denoted kAkF , is the `2 norm of the vector of singular values. As the rank of a matrix is equal to the number of non-zero singular values, it follows from the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality that kAk2tr ? rk(A) . (1) kAk2F This inequality motivates the use of the trace norm as a proxy for rank in rank minimization problems. A problem with the bound of (1) as a complexity measure is that it is not monotone?the bound can be larger on a submatrix of A than on A itself. As taking the Hadamard product of a matrix with a rank one matrix does not increase its rank, a way to fix this problem is to consider instead: kA ? vuT k2tr ? rk(A) . max u,v kA ? vuT k2F kuk=kvk=1 When A is a sign matrix, this bound simplifies nicely?for then, kA ? vuT kF = kukkvk = 1, and we are left with max kA ? vuT k2tr ? rk(A) . u,v kuk=kvk=1 This motivates the definition of the ?2 norm. Definition 4 Let A be a n-by-n matrix. Then ?2 (A) = kA ? vuT ktr . max u,v kuk=kvk=1 We will also make use of the dual norms of the trace and ?2 norms. Recall that in general for a norm ?(A) the dual norm ?? is defined as ?? (A) = max B Notice that this means that hA, Bi ?(B) hA, Bi ? ?? (A)?(B) . (2) The dual of the trace norm is k ? k the operator norm from `2 to `2 , also known as the spectral norm. The dual of the ?2 norm looks as follows. Definition 5 ?2? (A) = = min X,Y X T Y =A  1 kXk2F + kY k2F 2 min kXkF kY kF , X,Y X Y =A T where the min is taken over X, Y with orthogonal columns. 3 Finally, we will make use of the approximate ?2 norm. This is the minimum of the ?2 norm over all matrices which approximate the target matrix in some sense. The particular version we will need is denoted ?20,? and is defined as follows. Definition 6 Let S ? {0, 1}m?n be a boolean matrix. Let S? denote the complement of S, that is S? = J ? S where J is the all ones matrix. Then ?20,? (S) = min{?2 (T ) : T ? S ? S, T ? S? = 0} T In words, ?20,? (S) is the minimum ?2 norm of a matrix T which is 0 whenever S is zero, and at least 1 whenever S is 1. This can be thought of as a ?one-sided error? version of the more familiar ?2? norm of a sign matrix, which is the minimum ?2 norm of a matrix which agrees in sign with the target matrix and has all entries of magnitude at least 1. The ?2? bound is also known to be equal to the margin complexity [11]. 3 The algorithm Let S ? [m] ? [n] be a subset of entries, representing our partial knowledge. We can always run Alg1 and get an output matrix X. What we need in order to make intelligent use of X is a way to measure the distance between X and Y . Our first observation is that although Y is not known, it is possible to bound the distance between X and Y . This result is stated in the following theorem which generalizes Theorems (2) and (4) of [9] 3 : Theorem 7 Fix a set of entries S ? [m] ? [n]. Let P be a probability distribution on pairs (i, j) ? [m] ? [n], such that there exists a real matrix Q satisfying 1. Qij = 0 when (i, j) 6? S. 2. ?2? (P ? Q) ? ? Then for every m ? n real target matrix Y , if X is the output of our algorithm with initial subset S, it holds that X Pij (Xij ? Yij )2 ? 4??2 (Y )2 . i,j Theorem 7 says that ?2? (P ? Q) determines, at least to some extent, the expected distance between X and Y with respect to P . This gives us a way to measure the quality of the output of Alg1 for any set S of initial observations. Namely, we can do the following: 1. Choose a probability distribution P on the entries of the matrix. 2. Find a real matrix Q such that Qij = 0 when (i, j) 6? S, and ?2? (P ? Q) is minimal. 3. Output the minimal value ?. We then know, using Theorem 7, that the expected square distance between X and Y can be bounded in terms of ? and the complexity of Y . Obviously, the choice of P makes a big difference. For example if the set of initial observations is contained in a submatrix we cannot expect X to be close to Y outside this submatrix. In such cases it makes sense to restrict P to the submatrix containing S. One approach to find a distribution for which we can expect to be close on the unseen entries is to optimize over probability distributions P such that Theorem 7 gives the best bound. Since ?2? can be expressed as the optimum of semidefinite program, we can find in polynomial time a probability distribution P and a weight function Q on S such that ?2? (P ? Q) is minimizd. Thus, instead of trying different parameters, we can find a probability distribution for which we can prove optimal 3 Here we state the result for ?2 . See Section 4 for the corresponding result for the trace norm as well. 4 1. 2. Input: a subset S ? [n]2 and the value of Y on S. Output: a matrix X of smallest possible CC(X) under the condition that Xij = Yij for all (i, j) ? S. Figure 1: Algorithm Alg1(CC) guarantees using Theorem 7. The second algorithm we suggest does exactly that. We refer to this algorithm as Alg2, or Alg2(CC) if we wish to state the complexity measure that is used. For Alg2(?2 ), we do the following: Minimize ?2? (P ? Q) over all m ? n matrices Q and P such that: 1. Qij = 0 for (i, j) 6? S. 2. Pij = 0 for (i, j) ? S. P 3. i,j Pij = 1. Globally, our algorithm for matrix completion therefore works in two phases. We first use Alg1 to get an output matrix X, and then use Alg2 in order to find optimal guarantees regarding the distance between X and Y . The generalization error bounds for this algorithm are proved in Section 4. 3.1 Using a general norm In our description of Alg2 above we have used the norm ?2 . The same idea works for any norm ? satisfying the property ?(A ? A) ? ?(A)2 . Moreover, if the dual norm can be computed efficiently via a linear or semidefinite program, then the optimal distribution P for the bound can be found efficiently as well. For example for the trace norm the algorithm becomes: Given the sample S run Alg1(k ? ktr ) and get an output matrix X. The second part of the algorithm is: Minimize kP ? Qk over all m ? n matrices Q and P such that: 1. Qij = 0 for (i, j) 6? S. 2. Pij = 0 for (i, j) ? S. P 3. i,j Pij = 1. Denote by ? the optimal value of the above program, and by P the optimal probability distribution. Then analogously to Theorem 7, we have X Pij (Xij ? Yij )2 ? 4?kY k2tr . i,j Both of these results will follow from a more general theorem which we show in the next section. 4 Generalization bounds Here we show a more general theorem which will imply Theorem 7. Theorem 8 Let ? be a norm and ?? its dual norm. Suppose that ?(A ? A) ? ?(A)2 for any matrix A. Fix a set of indices S ? [m] ? [n]. Let P be a probability distribution on pairs (i, j) ? [m] ? [n], such that there exists a real matrix Q satisfying 1. Qij = 0 when (i, j) 6? S. 2. ?? (P ? Q) ? ? 5 Then for every m ? n real target matrix Y , if X is the output of algorithm Alg1(?) with initial subset S, it holds that X Pij (Xij ? Yij )2 ? 4?(Y )2 ?. i,j Proof Let R be the matrix where Rij = (Xij ? Yij )2 . By assumption ?? (P ? Q) ? ? thus by (2) hP ? Q, Ri ? ??(R) . Now let us focus on ?(R). As R = (X ? Y ) ? (X ? Y ) by the assumption on ? we have ?(R) ? ?(X ? Y )2 ? (?(X) + ?(Y ))2 . Now by definition of Alg1(?) we have ?(X) ? ?(Y ), thus ?(R) ? 4?(Y )2 . Also, by definition of the algorithm Rij = 0 for (i, j) ? S, and Qij equals zero outside of S, which implies that P i,j Qij Rij = 0. We conclude that X Pij (Xij ? Yij )2 ? 4??(Y )2 . i,j Both the trace norm and ?2 norm satisfy the condition of the theorem as they are multiplicative under tensor product. 5 Analyzing the error bound We now look more closely at the minimal value of the parameter ? from Theorem 7. The optimal value of ? depends only on the set of observed indices S. For a set of indices S ? [m] ? [n] let S? be its complement. Given samples S we want to find P, Q so as to minimize ?2? (P ? Q) such that P is a probability distribution over S? and Q has support in S. We can express this as a semidefinite program 1 Tr(?) 2 ? 0 subject to ? ? (P? ? Q) P ?0 ? =1 hP, Si ? =minimize ?,P,Q hQ, Si = Q. Here P? =  0 PT P 0  ? is the ?bipartite? version of P , and similarly for Q. Taking the dual of this program we find 1/? =minimize A ?2 (A) subject to A ? S? A ? S? = A In words, this says that that ?1 is equal to the minimum ?2 norm of a matrix that is zero on all entries ? Thus ? = 1/? 0,? (S) ? (recall Definition 6). This says that the in S and at least 1 on all entries in S. 2 ? more complex the set of unobserved entries S according to the measure ?20,? , the smaller the value ? ? ? (? ? (S?S)?1)/2 ? of ?. Note that in particular, if we consider the sign matrix S?S then ?20,? (S) 2 ? is lower bounded by the margin complexity of S ? S. 6 References [1] N. Srebro, J. D. M. Rennie, and T. S. Jaakola. Maximum-margin matrix factorization. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2005. [2] N. Srebro and A. Shraibman. Rank, trace-norm and max-norm. In 18th Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory (COLT), pages 545?560, 2005. [3] R. Foygel and N. Srebro. Concentration-based guarantees for low-rank matrix reconstruction. Technical report, arXiv, 2011. [4] E. J. Candes and T. Tao. The power of convex relaxation: near-optimal matrix completion. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 56(5):2053?2080, 2010. [5] E. J. Candes and B. Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 9(6):717?772, 2009. [6] B. Recht. A simpler approach to matrix completion. Technical report, arXiv, 2009. [7] R. H. Keshavan, A. Montanari, and S. Oh. Matrix completion from noisy entries. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:2057?2078, 2010. [8] V. Koltchinskii, A. B. Tsybakov, and K. Lounici. Nuclear norm penalization and optimal rates for noisy low rank matrix completion. Technical report, arXiv, 2010. [9] E. Heiman, G. Schechtman, and A. Shraibman. Deterministic algorithms for matrix completion. Random Structures and Algorithms, 2013. [10] A. Lubotzky, R. Phillips, and P. Sarnak. Ramanujan graphs. Combinatorica, 8:261?277, 1988. [11] N. Linial, S. Mendelson, G. Schechtman, and A. Shraibman. Complexity measures of sign matrices. Combinatorica, 27(4):439?463, 2007. 7
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Convex Two-Layer Modeling ? Ozlem Aslan Hao Cheng Dale Schuurmans Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta Edmonton, AB T6G 2E8, Canada {ozlem,hcheng2,dale}@cs.ualberta.ca Xinhua Zhang Machine Learning Research Group National ICT Australia and ANU [email protected] Abstract Latent variable prediction models, such as multi-layer networks, impose auxiliary latent variables between inputs and outputs to allow automatic inference of implicit features useful for prediction. Unfortunately, such models are difficult to train because inference over latent variables must be performed concurrently with parameter optimization?creating a highly non-convex problem. Instead of proposing another local training method, we develop a convex relaxation of hidden-layer conditional models that admits global training. Our approach extends current convex modeling approaches to handle two nested nonlinearities separated by a non-trivial adaptive latent layer. The resulting methods are able to acquire two-layer models that cannot be represented by any single-layer model over the same features, while improving training quality over local heuristics. 1 Introduction Deep learning has recently been enjoying a resurgence [1, 2] due to the discovery that stage-wise pre-training can significantly improve the results of classical training methods [3?5]. The advantage of latent variable models is that they allow abstract ?semantic? features of observed data to be represented, which can enhance the ability to capture predictive relationships between observed variables. In this way, latent variable models can greatly simplify the description of otherwise complex relationships between observed variates. For example, in unsupervised (i.e., ?generative?) settings, latent variable models have been used to express feature discovery problems such as dimensionality reduction [6], clustering [7], sparse coding [8], and independent components analysis [9]. More recently, such latent variable models have been used to discover abstract features of visual data invariant to low level transformations [1, 2, 4]. These learned representations not only facilitate understanding, they can enhance subsequent learning. Our primary focus in this paper, however, is on conditional modeling. In a supervised (i.e. ?conditional?) setting, latent variable models are used to discover intervening feature representations that allow more accurate reconstruction of outputs from inputs. One advantage in the supervised case is that output information can be used to better identify relevant features to be inferred. However, latent variables also cause difficulty in this case because they impose nested nonlinearities between the input and output variables. Some important examples of conditional latent learning approaches include those that seek an intervening lower dimensional representation [10] latent clustering [11], sparse feature representation [8] or invariant latent representation [1, 3, 4, 12] between inputs and outputs. Despite their growing success, the difficulty of training a latent variable model remains clear: since the model parameters have to be trained concurrently with inference over latent variables, the convexity of the training problem is usually destroyed. Only highly restricted models can be trained to optimality, and current deep learning strategies provide no guarantees about solution quality. This remains true even when restricting attention to a single stage of stage-wise pre-training: simple models such as the two-layer auto-encoder or restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) still pose intractable training problems, even within a single stage (in fact, simply computing the gradient of the RBM objective is currently believed to be intractable [13]). 1 Meanwhile, a growing body of research has investigated reformulations of latent variable learning that are able to yield tractable global training methods in special cases. Even though global training formulations are not a universally accepted goal of deep learning research [14], there are several useful methodologies that have been been applied successfully to other latent variable models: boosting strategies [15?17], semidefinite relaxations [18?20], matrix factorization [21?23], and moment based estimators (i.e. ?spectral methods?) [24, 25]. Unfortunately, none of these approaches has yet been able to accommodate a non-trivial hidden layer between an input and output layer while retaining the representational capacity of an auto-encoder or RBM (e.g. boosting strategies embed an intractable subproblem in these cases [15?17]). Some recent work has been able to capture restricted forms of latent structure in a conditional model?namely, a single latent cluster variable [18?20]?but this remains a rather limited approach. In this paper we demonstrate that more general latent variable structures can be accommodated within a tractable convex framework. In particular, we show how two-layer latent conditional models with a single latent layer can be expressed equivalently in terms of a latent feature kernel. This reformulation allows a rich set of latent feature representations to be captured, while allowing useful convex relaxations in terms of a semidefinite optimization. Unlike [26], the latent kernel in this model is explicitly learned (nonparametrically). To cope with scaling issues we further develop an efficient algorithmic approach for the proposed relaxation. Importantly, the resulting method preserves sufficient problem structure to recover prediction models that cannot be represented by any one-layer architecture over the same input features, while improving the quality of local training. 2 Two-Layer Conditional Modeling We address the problem of training a two-layer latent conditional model in the form of Figure 1; i.e., where there is a single layer of h latent variables, , between a layer of n input variables, x, and m output variables, y. The goal is to predict an output vector y given an input vector x. Here, a prediction model consists of the composition of two nonlinear conditional models, f1 (W x) ; and f2 (V ) ; y?, parameterized by the matrices W 2 Rh?n and V 2 Rm?h . Once the parameters W and V have been specified, this architecture ? from x defines a point predictor that can determine y by first computing an intermediate representation . To learn the model parameters, we assume we are given t training pairs {(xj , yj )}tj=1 , stacked in two matrices X = (x1 , ..., xt ) 2 Rn?t and Y = (y1 , ..., yt ) 2 Rm?t , but the corresponding set of latent variable values = ( 1 , ..., t ) 2 Rh?t remains unobserved. W V j f1 f2 xj yj t Figure 1: Latent conditional model f1 (W x) ; , f2 (V ) ; y?, where j is a latent variable, xj is an observed input vector, yj is an observed output vector, W are first layer parameters, and V are second layer parameters. To formulate the training problem, we will consider two losses, L1 and L2 , that relate the input to the latent layer, and the latent to the output layer respectively. For example, one can think of losses as negative log-likelihoods in a conditional model that generates each successive layer given its predecessor; i.e., L1 (W x, ) = log pW ( |x) and L2 (V , y) = log pV (y| ). (However, a loss based formulation is more flexible, since every negative log-likelihood is a loss but not vice versa.) Similarly to RBMs and probabilistic networks (PFNs) [27] (but unlike auto-encoders and classical feed-forward networks), we will not assume is a deterministic output of the first layer; instead we will consider to be a variable whose value is the subject of inference during training. Given such a set-up many training principles become possible. For simplicity, we consider a Viterbi based training principle where the parameters W and V are optimized with respect to an optimal imputation of the latent values . To do so, define the first and second layer training objectives as F1 (W, ) = L1 (W X, ) + ?2 kW k2F , and F2 ( , V ) = L2 (V , Y ) + 2 kV k2F , (1) where we assume the losses are convex in their first arguments. Here it is typical to assume Pt ? that the losses decompose columnwise; that is, L1 ( ? , ) = j=1 L1 ( j , j ) and L2 (Z, Y ) = Pt ? ? ?j is the jth column of Z? respectively. This zj , yj ), where j is the jth column of and z j=1 L2 (? 2 follows for example if the training pairs (xj , yj ) are assumed I.I.D., but such a restriction is not necessary. Note that we have also introduced Euclidean regularization over the parameters (i.e. negative log-priors under a Gaussian), which will provide a useful representer theorem [28] we exploit later. These two objectives can be combined to obtain the following joint training problem: min min F1 (W, ) + F2 ( , V ), (2) W,V where > 0 is a trade off parameter that balances the first versus second layer discrepancy. Unfortunately (2) is not jointly convex in the unknowns W , V and . A key modeling question concerns the structure of the latent representation . As noted, the extensive literature on latent variable modeling has proposed a variety of forms for latent structure. Here, we follow work on deep learning and sparse coding and assume that the latent variables are boolean, 2 {0, 1}h?1 ; an assumption that is also often made in auto-encoders [13], PFNs [27], and RBMs [5]. A boolean representation can capture structures that range from a single latent clustering [11, 19, 20], by imposing the assumption that 0 1 = 1, to a general sparse code, by imposing the assumption that 0 1 = k for some small k [1, 4, 13].1 Observe that, in the latter case, one can control the complexity of the latent representation by imposing a constraint on the number of ?active? variables k rather than directly controlling the latent dimensionality h. 2.1 Multi-Layer Perceptrons and Large-Margin Losses To complete a specification of the two-layer model in Figure 1 and the associated training problem (2), we need to commit to specific forms for the transfer functions f1 and f2 and the losses in (1). For simplicity, we will adopt a large-margin approach over two-layer perceptrons. Although it has been traditional in deep learning research to focus on exponential family conditional models (e.g. as in auto-encoders, PFNs and RBMs), these are not the only possibility; a large-margin approach offers additional sparsity and algorithmic simplifications that will clarify the development below. Despite its simplicity, such an approach will still be sufficient to prove our main point. First, consider the second layer model. We will conduct our primary evaluations on multiclass classification problems, where output vectors y encode target classes by indicator vectors y 2 {0, 1}m?1 such that y0 1 = 1. Although it is common to adopt a softmax transfer for f2 in such a case, it is also useful to consider a perceptron model defined by f2 (? z) = indmax(? z) such that indmax(? z) = 1i (vector of all 0s except a 1 in the ith position) where z?i z?l for all l. Therefore, for multi-class classification, we will simply adopt the standard large-margin multi-class loss [29]: ? 1y0 z ?). L2 (? z, y) = max(1 y + z (3) ? on the correct Intuitively, if yc = 1 is the correct label, this loss encourages the response z?c = y0 z label to be a margin greater than the response z?i on any other label i 6= c. Second, consider the first layer model. Although the loss (3) has proved to be highly successful for multi-class classification problems, it is not suitable for the first layer because it assumes there is only a single target component active in any latent vector ; i.e. 0 1 = 1. Although some work has considered learning a latent clustering in a two-layer architecture [11, 18?20], such an approach is not able to capture the latent sparse code of a classical PFN or RBM in a reasonable way: using clustering to simulate a multi-dimensional sparse code causes exponential blow-up in the number of latent classes required. Therefore, we instead adopt a multi-label perceptron model for the first layer, defined by the transfer function f1 ( ?) = step( ?) applied componentwise to the response vector ?; i.e. step( ?i ) = 1 if ?i > 0, 0 otherwise. Here again, instead of using a traditional negative loglikelihood loss, we will adopt a simple large-margin loss for multi-label classification that naturally accommodates multiple binary latent classifications in parallel. Although several loss formulations exist for multi-label classification [30, 31], we adopt the following: L1 ( ?, ) = max(1 + ? 0 1 1 0 ?) ? max (1 )/( 0 1) + ? 1 0 ?/( 0 1) . (4) Intuitively, this loss encourages the average response on the active labels, 0 ?/( 0 1), to exceed the response ?i on any inactive label i, i = 0, by some margin, while also encouraging the response on any active label to match the average of the active responses. Despite their simplicity, large-margin multi-label losses have proved to be highly successful in practice [30, 31]. Therefore, the overall architecture we investigate embeds two nonlinear conditionals around a non-trivial latent layer. 1 Throughout this paper we let 1 denote the vector of all 1s with length determined by context. 3 3 Equivalent Reformulation The main contribution of this paper is to show that the training problem (2) has a convex relaxation that preserves sufficient structure to transcend one-layer models. To demonstrate this relaxation, we first need to establish the key observation that problem (2) can be re-expressed in terms of a kernel matrix between latent representation vectors. Importantly, this reformulation allows the problem to be re-expressed in terms of an optimization objective that is jointly convex in all participating variables. We establish this key intermediate result in this section in three steps: first, by re-expressing the latent representation in terms of a latent kernel; second, by reformulating the second layer objective; and third, by reformulating the first layer objective by exploiting large-margin formulation outlined in Section 2.1. Below let K = X 0 X denote the kernel matrix over the input data, let Im(N ) denote the row space of N , and let and ? denote Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse. First, simply define N = 0 . Next, re-express the second layer objective F2 in (1) by the following. Lemma 1. For any fixed , letting N = min F2 ( , V ) V = , it follows that 0 min B2Im(N ) L2 (B, Y ) + 2 tr(BN ? B 0 ). (5) Proof. The result follows from the following sequence of equivalence preserving transformations: min L2 (V , Y ) + 2 kV k2F V = = min L2 (AN, Y ) + A min B2Im(N ) 2 L2 (B, Y ) + tr(AN A0 ) 2 tr(BN ? B 0 ), (6) (7) where, starting with the definition of F2 in (1), the first equality in (6) follows from the representer theorem applied to kV k2F , which implies that the optimal V must be in the form of V = A 0 for some A 2 Rm?t [28]; and finally, (7) follows by the change of variable B = AN . Note that Lemma 1 holds for any loss L2 . In fact, the result follows solely from the structure of the regularizer. However, we require L2 to be convex in its first argument to ensure a convex problem below. Convexity is indeed satisfied by the choice (3). Moreover, the term tr(BN ? B 0 ) is jointly convex in N and B since it is a perspective function [32], hence the objective in (5) is jointly convex. Next, we reformulate the first layer objective F1 in (1). Since this transformation exploits specific structure in the first layer loss, we present the result in two parts: first, by showing how the desired outcome follows from a general assumption on L1 , then demonstrating that this assumption is satisfied by the specific large-margin multi-label loss defined in (4). To establish this result we ? = ?0 ?, will exploit the following augmented forms for the data and variables: let ? = [ , kI], N ? = [ ? , 0], X ? = [X, 0], K ? =X ? 0 X, ? and t? = t + h. ? 1 such that L1 ( ? , ) = L ? 1 ( ? 0 ? , ? 0 ? ) for all Lemma 2. For any L1 if there exists a function L h?t h?t 0 ? 2R and 2 {0, 1} , such that 1 = 1k, it then follows that min F1 (W, ) W = min ?) D2Im(N ? 1 (DK, ? N ?) + L ? 2 ? ? DK). ? tr(D0 N (8) Proof. Similar to above, consider the sequence of equivalence preserving transformations: min L1 (W X, ) + ?2 kW k2F W = ? 1 ( ? 0 W X, ? ? 0 ? ) + ? kW k2F min L 2 = ?1( ? 0 ? C X ? 0 X, ? ?0 ?) + min L = W C min ?) D2Im(N ? 1 (DK, ? N ?) + L ? 2 2 ? 0 ? 0 ? CX ? 0) tr(XC ? ? DK), ? tr(D0 N (9) (10) (11) where, starting with the definition of F1 in (1), the first equality (9) simply follows from the assumption. The second equality (10) follows from the representer theorem applied to kW k2F , which ? 0 for some C 2 Rt??t? (using the fact implies that the optimal W must be in the form of W = ? C X ? ? C. that has full rank h) [28]. Finally, (11) follows by the change of variable D = N 4 ? ? DK) ? is again jointly convex in N ? and D (also a perspective funcObserve that the term tr(D0 N ? ? ? tion), while it is easy to verify that L1 (DK, N ) as defined in Lemma 3 below is also jointly convex ? and D [32]; therefore the objective in (8) is jointly convex. in N Next, we show that the assumption of Lemma 2 is satisfied by the specific large-margin multi-label formulation in Section 2.1; that is, assume L1 is given by the large-margin multi-label loss (4): P ? 0 L1 ( ? , ) = 1 0j ?j j + j j1 j max 1 P = ? 110 + ? diag( 0 1) 1 diag( 0 ? )0 , such that ? (?) := j max(?j ), (12) where we use ?j , j and ?j to denote the jth columns of ? , and ? respectively. Lemma 3. For the multi-label loss L1 defined in (4), and for any fixed 2 {0, 1}h?t where 0 0 ? ?0 ? 0? 0? 0? ? ? ? ? ? ) := ? ( /k) + t tr( ) using the augmentation 1 = 1k, the definition L1 ( , ? 1 ( ? 0 ? , ? 0 ? ) for any ? 2 Rh?t . above satisfies the property that L1 ( ? , ) = L Proof. Since 0 1 = 1k we obtain a simplification of L1 : L1 ( ? , ) = + k? ? 110 1 diag( 0? 0 It only remains is to establish that ? (k ? ) = ?(?0 ? of equivalence preserving transformations: ? (k ? ) = = max tr ?0 (k ? max 1 k ? t :?0 1=1 ?2Rh? + ? ? ?2Rt+?t :?0 1=1 = ? (k ? ) )+t tr( ? 0 ? ). (13) ? 0 ? /k). To do so, consider the sequence ?) tr ?0 ? 0 (k ? (14) ?) = ?(?0 ? ? 0 ? /k), (15) where the equalities in (14) and (15) follow from the definition of ? and the fact that linear maximizations over the simplex obtain their solutions at the vertices. To establish the equality between t? t??t? (14) and (15), since ? embeds the submatrix kI, for any ? 2 Rh? + there must exist an ? 2 R+ satisfying ? = ? ?/k. Furthermore, these matrices satisfy ?0 1 = 1 iff ?0 ? 0 1/k = 1 iff ?0 1 = 1. ? 1 defined in Lemma 3. (The Therefore, the result (8) holds for the first layer loss (4), using L same result can be established for other loss functions, such as the multi-class large-margin loss.) Combining these lemmas yields the desired result of this section. Theorem 1. For any second layer loss and any first layer loss that satisfies the assumption of Lemma 2 (for example the large-margin multi-label loss (4)), the following equivalence holds: (2) = min ? :9 2{0,1}t?h s.t. {N min min ? = ?0 ? } B2Im(N ? ) D2Im(N ?) 1=1k,N ? 1 (DK, ? N ?) + L + L2 (B, Y ) + 2 ? 2 ? ? DK) ? tr(D0 N ? ? B 0 ). tr(B N (16) (Theorem 1 follows immediately from Lemmas 1 and 2.) Note that no relaxation has occurred thus far: the objective value of (16) matches that of (2). Not only has this reformulation resulted in (2) ? , the objective in (16) is jointly convex being entirely expressed in terms of the latent kernel matrix N ? , B and D. Unfortunately, the constraints in (16) are not convex. in all participating unknowns, N 4 Convex Relaxation We first relax the problem by dropping the augmentation 7! ? and working with the t ? t variable N = 0 . Without the augmentation, Lemma 3 becomes a lower bound (i.e. (14) (15)), hence a relaxation. To then achieve a convex form we further relax the constraints in (16). To do so, consider N0 = N2 = N1 = N :9 2 {0, 1}t?h such that 1 = 1k and N = t?t N : N 2 {0, ..., k} {N : N 0 , N ? 0, diag(N ) = 1k, rank(N ) ? h 0, N ? 0, diag(N ) = 1k} , (17) (18) (19) where it is clear from the definitions that N0 ? N1 ? N2 . (Here we use N ? 0 to also encode N 0 = N .) Note that the set N0 corresponds to the original set of constraints from (16). The set 5 Algorithm 1: ADMM to optimize F(N ) for N 2 N2 . 1 2 3 4 5 6 Initialize: M0 = I, 0 = 0. while T = 1, 2, . . . do NT arg minN ?0 L(N, MT 1 , T 1 ), by using the boosting Algorithm 2. MT arg minM 0,Mii =k L(NT , M, T 1 ), which has an efficient closed form solution. 1 NT ); i.e. update the multipliers. T T 1 + ? (MT return NT . Algorithm 2: Boosting algorithm to optimize G(N ) for N ? 0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Initialize: N0 0, H0 [ ] (empty set). while T = 1, 2, . . . do Find the smallest arithmetic eigenvalue of rG(NT 1 ), and its eigenvector hT . Conic search by LBFGS: (aT , bT ) mina 0,b 0 G(aNT 1 + bhT h0T ). p Local search by LBFGS: HT local minH G(HH 0 ) initialized by H = ( aHT 0 Set NT HT HT ; break if stopping criterion met. return NT . 1, p bhT ). N1 simplifies the characterization of this constraint set on the resulting kernel matrices N = 0 . However, neither N0 nor N1 are convex. Therefore, we need to adopt the further relaxed set N2 , which is convex. (Note that Nij ? k has been implied by N ? 0 and Nii = k in N2 .) Since dropping the rank constraint eliminates the constraints B 2 Im(N ) and D 2 Im(N ) in (16) when N 0 [32], we obtain the following relaxed problem, which is jointly convex in N , B and D: min min ? 1 (DK, N ) + min L N 2N2 B2Rt?t D2Rt?t 5 ? 2 tr(D0 N ? DK) + L2 (B, Y ) + 2 tr(BN ? B 0 ). (20) Efficient Training Approach Unfortunately, nonlinear semidefinite optimization problems in the form (20) are generally thought to be too expensive in practice despite their polynomial theoretical complexity [33, 34]. Therefore, we develop an effective training algorithm that exploits problem structure to bypass the main computational bottlenecks. The key challenge is that N2 contains both semidefinite and affine constraints, and the pseudo-inverse N ? makes optimization over N difficult even for fixed B and D. To mitigate these difficulties we first treat (20) as the reduced problem, minN 2N2 F(N ), where F is an implicit objective achieved by minimizing out B and D. Note that F is still convex in N by the joint convexity of (20). To cope with the constraints on N we adopt the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) [35] as the main outer optimization procedure; see Algorithm 1. This approach allows one to divide N2 into two groups, N ? 0 and {Nij 0, Nii = k}, yielding the augmented Lagrangian L(N, M, ) = F(N ) + (N ? 0) + (Mij 0, Mii = k) h , N Mi + 1 2? 2 kN M kF , (21) where ? > 0 is a small constant, and denotes an indicator such that (?) = 0 if ? is true, and 1 otherwise. In this procedure, Steps 4 and 5 cost O(t2 ) time; whereas the main bottleneck is Step 3, which involves minimizing GT (N ) := L(N, MT 1 , T 1 ) over N ? 0 for fixed MT 1 and T 1 . Boosting for Optimizing over the Positive Semidefinite Cone. To solve the problem in Step 3 we develop an efficient boosting procedure based on [36] that retains low rank iterates NT while avoiding the need to determine N ? when computing G(N ) and rG(N ); see Algorithm 2. The key idea is to use a simple change of variable. For example, consider the first layer objective and let ? 1 (DK, N ) + ? tr(D0 N ? DK). By defining D = N C, we obtain G1 (N ) = G1 (N ) = minD L 2 ? 1 (N CK, N ) + ? tr(C 0 N CK), which no longer involves N ? but remains convex in C; this minC L 2 problem can be solved efficiently after a slight smoothing of the objective [37] (e.g. by LBFGS). Moreover, the gradient rG1 (N ) can be readily computed given C ? . Applying the same technique 6 2 4 1.5 3.5 1 0.8 0.6 3 1 0.4 2.5 0.5 0.2 2 0 0 ?0.2 1.5 ?0.5 ?0.4 1 ?1 ?0.6 0.5 ?0.8 ?1.5 0 ?2 ?2 ?1.5 ?1 ?0.5 0 0.5 1 (a) ?Xor? (2 ? 400) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 ?1 ?2 0 2 4 1.5 6 8 10 12 14 XOR TJB2 49.8 ?0.7 TSS1 50.2 ?1.2 SVM1 50.3 ?1.1 LOC2 4.2 ?0.9 CVX2 0.2 ?0.1 (b) ?Boxes? (2 ? 320) (c) ?Interval? (2 ? 200) BOXES 45.7 ?0.6 35.7 ?1.3 31.4 ?0.5 11.4 ?0.6 10.1 ?0.4 INTER 49.3 ?1.3 42.6 ?3.9 50.0 ?0.0 50.0 ?0.0 20.0 ?2.4 (d) Synthetic results (% error) Figure 2: Synthetic experiments: three artificial data sets that cannot be meaningfully classified by a one-layer model that does not use a nonlinear kernel. Table shows percentage test set error. to the second layer yields an efficient procedure for evaluating G(N ) and rG(N ). Finally note that many of the matrix-vector multiplications in this procedure can be further accelerated by exploiting the low rank factorization of N maintained by the boosting algorithm; see the Appendix for details. Additional Relaxation. One can further reduce computation cost by adopting additional relaxations to (20). For example, by dropping N 0 and relaxing diag(N ) = 1k to diag(N ) ? 1k, the objective can be written as min{N ?0,maxi Nii ?k} F(N ). Since maxi Nii is convex in N , it is well known that there must exist a constant c1 > 0 such that the optimal N is also an optimal solution 2 to minN ?0 F(N ) + c1 (maxi Nii ) . While maxi Nii is not smooth, one can further smooth it P 2 with a softmax, to instead solve minN ?0 F(N ) + c1 (log i exp(c2 Nii )) for some large c2 . This formulation avoids the need for ADMM entirely and can be directly solved by Algorithm 2. 6 Experimental Evaluation To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed relaxation scheme for training a two-layer conditional model, we conducted a number of experiments to compare learning quality against baseline methods. Note that, given an optimal solution N , B and D to (20), an approximate solution to the original problem (2) can be recovered heuristically by first rounding N to obtain , then recovering W and V , as shown in Lemmas 1 and 2. However, since our primary objective is to determine whether any convex relaxation of a two-layer model can even compete with one-layer or locally trained two-layer models (rather than evaluate heuristic rounding schemes), we consider a transductive evaluation that does not require any further modification of N , B and D. In such a set-up, training data is divided into a labeled and unlabeled portion, where the method receives X = [X` , Xu ] and Y` , and at test time the resulting predictions Y?u are evaluated against the held-out labels Yu . Methods. We compared the proposed convex relaxation scheme (CVX2) against the following methods: simple alternating minimization of the same two-layer model (2) (LOC2), a one-layer linear SVM trained on the labeled data (SVM1), the transductive one-layer SVM methods of [38] (TSJ1) and [39] (TSS1), and the transductive latent clustering method of [18, 19] (TJB2), which is also a two-layer model. Linear input kernels were used for all methods (standard in most deep learning models) to control the comparison between one and two-layer models. Our experiments were conducted with the following common protocol: First, the data was split into a separate training and test set. Then the parameters of each procedure were optimized by a three-fold cross validation on the training set. Once the optimal parameters were selected, they were fixed and used on the test set. For transductive procedures, the same three training sets from the first phase were used, but then combined with ten new test sets drawn from the disjoint test data (hence 30 overall) for the final evaluation. At no point were test examples used to select any parameters for any of the methods. We considered different proportions between labeled/unlabeled data; namely, 100/100 and 200/200. Synthetic Experiments. We initially ran a proof of concept experiment on three binary labeled artificial data sets depicted in Figure 2 (showing data set sizes n ? t) with 100/100 labeled/unlabeled training points. Here the goal was simply to determine whether the relaxed two-layer training method could preserve sufficient structure to overcome the limits of a one-layer architecture. Clearly, none of the data sets in Figure 2 are adequately modeled by a one-layer architecture (that does not cheat and use a nonlinear kernel). The results are shown in the Figure 2(d) table. 7 TJB2 LOC2 SVM1 TSS1 TSJ1 CVX2 MNIST 19.3 ?1.2 19.3 ?1.0 16.2 ?0.7 13.7 ?0.8 14.6 ?0.7 9.2 ?0.6 USPS 53.2 ?2.9 13.9 ?1.1 11.6 ?0.5 11.1 ?0.5 12.1 ?0.4 9.2 ?0.5 Letter 20.4 ?2.1 10.4 ?0.6 6.2 ?0.4 5.9 ?0.5 5.6 ?0.5 5.1 ?0.5 COIL 30.6 ?0.8 18.0 ?0.5 16.9 ?0.6 17.5 ?0.6 17.2 ?0.6 13.8 ?0.6 CIFAR 29.2 ?2.1 31.8 ?0.9 27.6 ?0.9 26.7 ?0.7 26.6 ?0.8 26.5 ?0.8 G241N 26.3 ?0.8 41.6 ?0.9 27.1 ?0.9 25.1 ?0.8 24.4 ?0.7 25.2 ?1.0 Table 1: Mean test misclassification error % (? stdev) for 100/100 labeled/unlabeled. TJB2 LOC2 SVM1 TSS1 TSJ1 CVX2 MNIST 13.7 ?0.6 16.3 ?0.6 11.2 ?0.4 11.4 ?0.5 12.3 ?0.5 8.8 ?0.4 USPS 46.6 ?1.0 9.7 ?0.5 10.7 ?0.4 11.3 ?0.4 11.8 ?0.4 6.6 ?0.4 Letter 14.0 ?2.6 8.5 ?0.6 5.0 ?0.3 4.4 ?0.3 4.8 ?0.3 3.8 ?0.3 COIL 45.0 ?0.8 12.8 ?0.6 15.6 ?0.5 14.9 ?0.4 13.5 ?0.4 8.2 ?0.4 CIFAR 30.4 ?1.9 28.2 ?0.9 25.5 ?0.6 24.0 ?0.6 23.9 ?0.5 22.8 ?0.6 G241N 22.4 ?0.5 40.4 ?0.7 22.9 ?0.5 23.7 ?0.5 22.2 ?0.6 20.3 ?0.5 Table 2: Mean test misclassification error % (? stdev) for 200/200 labeled/unlabeled. As expected, the one-layer models SVM1 and TSS1 were unable to capture any useful classification structure in these problems. (TSJ1 behaves similarly to TSS1.) The results obtained by CVX2, on the other hand, are encouraging. In these data sets, CVX2 is easily able to capture latent nonlinearities while outperforming the locally trained LOC2. Although LOC2 is effective in the first two cases, it exhibits weaker test accuracy while failing on the third data set. The two-layer method TJB2 exhibited convergence difficulties on these problems that prevented reasonable results. Experiments on ?Real? Data Sets. Next, we conducted experiments on real data sets to determine whether the advantages in controlled synthetic settings could translate into useful results in a more realistic scenario. For these experiments we used a collection of binary labeled data sets: USPS, COIL and G241N from [40], Letter from [41], MNIST, and CIFAR-100 from [42]. (See Appendix B in the supplement for further details.) The results are shown in Tables 1 and 2 for the labeled/unlabeled proportions 100/100 and 200/200 respectively. The relaxed two-layer method CVX2 again demonstrates effective results, although some data sets caused difficulty for all methods. The data sets can be divided into two groups, (MNIST, USPS, COIL) versus (Letter, CIFAR, G241N). In the first group, two-layer modeling demonstrates a clear advantage: CVX2 outperforms SVM1 by a significant margin. Note that this advantage must be due to two-layer versus one-layer modeling, since the transductive SVM methods TSS1 and TSJ1 demonstrate no advantage over SVM1. For the second group, the effectiveness of SVM1 demonstrates that only minor gains can be possible via transductive or two-layer extensions, although some gains are realized. The locally trained two-layer model LOC2 performed quite poorly in all cases. Unfortunately, the convex latent clustering method TJB2 was also not competitive on any of these data sets. Overall, CVX2 appears to demonstrate useful promise as a two-layer modeling approach. 7 Conclusion We have introduced a new convex approach to two-layer conditional modeling by reformulating the problem in terms of a latent kernel over intermediate feature representations. The proposed model can accommodate latent feature representations that go well beyond a latent clustering, extending current convex approaches. A semidefinite relaxation of the latent kernel allows a reasonable implementation that is able to demonstrate advantages over single-layer models and local training methods. From a deep learning perspective, this work demonstrates that trainable latent layers can be expressed in terms of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, while large margin methods can be usefully applied to multi-layer prediction architectures. Important directions for future work include replacing the step and indmax transfers with more traditional sigmoid and softmax transfers, while also replacing the margin losses with more traditional Bregman divergences; refining the relaxation to allow more control over the structure of the latent representations; and investigating the utility of convex methods for stage-wise training within multi-layer architectures. 8 References [1] Q. Le, M. Ranzato, R. Monga, M. Devin, G. Corrado, K. Chen, J. Dean, and A. Ng. 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Learning mixtures of spherical Gaussians: Moment methods and spectral decompositions. In Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science (ITCS), 2013. [26] Y. Cho and L. Saul. Large margin classification in infinite neural networks. Neural Comput., 22, 2010. [27] R. Neal. Connectionist learning of belief networks. Artificial Intelligence, 56(1):71?113, 1992. [28] G. Kimeldorf and G. Wahba. Some results on Tchebycheffian spline functions. JMAA, 33:82?95, 1971. [29] K. Crammer and Y. Singer. On the algorithmic implementation of multiclass kernel-based vector machines. JMLR, pages 265?292, 2001. [30] J. Fuernkranz, E. Huellermeier, E. Mencia, and K. Brinker. Multilabel classification via calibrated label ranking. Machine Learning, 73(2):133?153, 2008. [31] Y. Guo and D. Schuurmans. Adaptive large margin training for multilabel classification. In AAAI, 2011. [32] A. Argyriou, T. Evgeniou, and M. Pontil. Convex multi-task feature learning. Mach. Learn., 73(3), 2008. [33] Y. Nesterov and A. Nimirovskii. Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming. 1994. [34] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge U. Press, 2004. [35] S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, and J. Eckstein. Distributed optimization and statistical learning via the alternating direction method of multipliers. Foundat. Trends in Mach. Learn., 3(1):1?123, 2010. [36] S. Laue. A hybrid algorithm for convex semidefinite optimization. In Proc. ICML, 2012. [37] O. Chapelle. Training a support vector machine in the primal. Neural Comput., 19(5):1155?1178, 2007. [38] T. Joachims. Transductive inference for text classification using support vector machines. In ICML, 1999. [39] V. Sindhwani and S. Keerthi. Large scale semi-supervised linear SVMs. In SIGIR, 2006. [40] http://olivier.chapelle.cc/ssl- book/benchmarks.html. [41] http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets. [42] http://www.cs.toronto.edu/ kriz/cifar.html. 9
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Reconciling ?priors? & ?priors? without prejudice? R?emi Gribonval ? Inria Centre Inria Rennes - Bretagne Atlantique [email protected] Pierre Machart Inria Centre Inria Rennes - Bretagne Atlantique [email protected] Abstract There are two major routes to address linear inverse problems. Whereas regularization-based approaches build estimators as solutions of penalized regression optimization problems, Bayesian estimators rely on the posterior distribution of the unknown, given some assumed family of priors. While these may seem radically different approaches, recent results have shown that, in the context of additive white Gaussian denoising, the Bayesian conditional mean estimator is always the solution of a penalized regression problem. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we extend the additive white Gaussian denoising results to general linear inverse problems with colored Gaussian noise. Second, we characterize conditions under which the penalty function associated to the conditional mean estimator can satisfy certain popular properties such as convexity, separability, and smoothness. This sheds light on some tradeoff between computational efficiency and estimation accuracy in sparse regularization, and draws some connections between Bayesian estimation and proximal optimization. 1 Introduction Let us consider a fairly general linear inverse problem, where one wants to estimate a parameter vector z ? RD , from a noisy observation y ? Rn , such that y = Az + b, where A ? Rn?D is sometimes referred to as the observation or design matrix, and b ? Rn represents an additive Gaussian noise with a distribution PB ? N (0, ?). When n < D, it turns out to be an ill-posed problem. However, leveraging some prior knowledge or information, a profusion of schemes have been developed in order to provide an appropriate estimation of z. In this abundance, we will focus on two seemingly very different approaches. 1.1 Two families of approaches for linear inverse problems On the one hand, Bayesian approaches are based on the assumption that z and b are drawn from probability distributions PZ and PB respectively. From that point, a straightforward way to estimate z is to build, for instance, the Minimum Mean Squared Estimator (MMSE), sometimes referred to as Bayesian Least Squares, conditional expectation or conditional mean estimator, and defined as: ?MMSE (y) := E(Z|Y = y). (1) This estimator has the nice property of being optimal (in a least squares sense) but suffers from its explicit reliance on the prior distribution, which is usually unknown in practice. Moreover, its computation involves a tedious integral computation that generally cannot be done explicitly. On the other hand, regularization-based approaches have been at the centre of a tremendous amount of work from a wide community of researchers in machine learning, signal processing, and more ? The authors are with the PANAMA project-team at IRISA, Rennes, France. 1 generally in applied mathematics. These approaches focus on building estimators (also called decoders) with no explicit reference to the prior distribution. Instead, these estimators are built as an optimal trade-off between a data fidelity term and a term promoting some regularity on the solution. Among these, we will focus on a widely studied family of estimators ? that write in this form: 1 ?(y) := argmin ky ? Azk2 + ?(z). z?RD 2 (2) For instance, the specific choice ?(z) = ?kzk22 gives rise to a method often referred to as the ridge regression [1] while ?(z) = ?kzk1 gives rise to the famous Lasso [2]. The `1 decoder associated to ?(z) = ?kzk1 has attracted a particular attention, for the associated optimization problem is convex, and generalizations to other ?mixed? norms are being intensively studied [3, 4]. Several facts explain the popularity of such approaches: a) these penalties have wellunderstood geometric interpretations; b) they are known to be sparsity promoting (the minimizer has many zeroes); c) this can be exploited in active set methods for computational efficiency [5]; d) convexity offers a comfortable framework to ensure both a unique minimum and a rich toolbox of efficient and provably convergent optimization algorithms [6]. 1.2 Do they really provide different estimators? Regularization and Bayesian estimation seemingly yield radically different viewpoints on inverse problems. In fact, they are underpinned by distinct ways of defining signal models or ?priors?. The ?regularization prior? is embodied by the penalty function ?(z) which promotes certain solutions, somehow carving an implicit signal model. In the Bayesian framework, the ?Bayesian prior? is embodied by where the mass of the signal distribution PZ lies. The MAP quid pro quo A quid pro quo between these distinct notions of priors has crystallized around the notion of maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, leading to a long lasting incomprehension between two worlds. In fact, a simple application of Bayes rule shows that under a Gaussian R noise model b ? N (0, I) and Bayesian prior PZ (z ? E) = E pZ (z)dz, E ? RN , MAP estimation1 yields the optimization problem (2) with regularization prior ?Z (z) := ? log pZ (z). By a trivial identification, the optimization problem (2) with regularization prior ?(z) is now routinely called ?MAP with prior exp(??(z))?. With the `1 penalty, it is often called ?MAP with a Laplacian prior?. As an unfortunate consequence of an erroneous ?reverse reading? of this fact, this identification has given rise to the erroneous but common myth that the optimization approach is particularly well adapted when the unknown is distributed as exp(??(z)). As a striking counter-example to this myth, it has recently been proved [7] that when z is drawn i.i.d. Laplacian and A ? Rn?D is drawn from the Gaussian ensemble, the `1 decoder ? and indeed any sparse decoder ? will be outperformed by the least squares decoder ?LS (y) := pinv(A)y, unless n & 0.15D. In fact, [8] warns us that the MAP estimate is only one of the plural possible Bayesian interpretations of (2), even though it is the most straightforward one. Furthermore, to point out that erroneous conception, a deeper connection is dug, showing that in the more restricted context of (white) Gaussian denoising, for any prior, there exists a regularizer ? such that the MMSE estimator can be expressed as the solution of problem (2). This result essentially exhibits a regularization-oriented formulation for which two radically different interpretations can be made. It highlights the important following fact: the specific choice of a regularizer ? does not, alone, induce an implicit prior on the supposed distribution of the unknown; besides a prior PZ , a Bayesian estimator also involves the choice of a loss function. For certain regularizers ?, there can in fact exist (at least two) different priors PZ for which the optimization problem (2) yields the optimal Bayesian estimator, associated to (at least) two different losses (e.g.., the 0/1 loss for the MAP, and the quadratic loss for the MMSE). 1.3 Main contributions A first major contribution of that paper is to extend the aforementioned result [8] to a more general linear inverse problem setting. Our first main results can be introduced as follows: 1 which is the Bayesian optimal estimator in a 0/1 loss sense, for discrete signals. 2 Theorem (Flavour of the main result). For any non-degenerate2 prior PZ , any non-degenerate covariance matrix ? and any design matrix A with full rank, there exists a regularizer ?A,?,PZ such that the MMSE estimator of z ? PZ given the observation y = Az + b with b ? N (0, ?), ?A,?,PZ (y) := E(Z|Y = y), (3) is a minimizer of z 7? 21 ky ? Azk2? + ?A,?,PZ (z). Roughly, it states that for the considered inverse problem, for any prior on z, the MMSE estimate with Gaussian noise is also the solution of a regularization-based problem (the converse is not true). In addition to this result we further characterize properties of the penalty function ?A,?,PZ (z) in the case where A is invertible, by showing that: a) it is convex if and only if the probability density function of the observation y,P pY (y) (often called the evidence), is log-concave; b) when A = I, n it is a separable sum ?(z) = i=1 ?i (zi ) where z = (z1 , . . . , zn ) if, and only if, the evidence is multiplicatively separable: pY (y) = ?ni=1 pYi (yi ). 1.4 Outline of the paper In Section 2, we develop the main result of our paper, that we just introduced. To do so, we review an existing result from the literature and explicit the different steps that make it possible to generalize it to the linear inverse problem setting. In Section 3, we provide further results that shed some light on the connections between MMSE and regularization-oriented estimators. Namely, we introduce some commonly desired properties on the regularizing function such as separability and convexity and show how they relate to the priors in the Bayesian framework. Finally, in Section 4, we conclude and offer some perspectives of extension of the present work. 2 Main steps to the main result We begin by a highlight of some intermediate results that build into steps towards our main theorem. 2.1 An existing result for white Gaussian denoising As a starting point, let us recall the existing results in [8] (Lemma II.1 and Theorem II.2) dealing with the additive white Gaussian denoising problem, A = I, ? = I. Theorem 1 (Reformulation of the main results of [8]). For any non-degenerate prior PZ , we have: 1. ?I,I,PZ is one-to-one; 2. ?I,I,PZ and its inverse are C ? ; 3. ?y ? Rn , ?I,I,PZ (y) is the unique global minimum and unique stationary point of z 7?  ?(z) = ?I,I,PZ (z) := 1 ky ? Izk2 + ?(z), with: 2 (4) ?1 ?1 ? 21 k?I,I,P (z) ? zk22 ? log pY [?MMSE (z)]; for z ? Im?I,I,PZ ; Z +?, for x ? / Im?I,I,PZ ; 4. The penalty function ?I,I,PZ is C ? ; 5. Any penalty function ?(z) such that ?I,I,PZ (y) is a stationary point of (4) satisfies ?(z) = ?I,I,PZ (z) + C for some constant C and all z. 2 We only need to assume that Z does not intrinsically live almost surely in a lower dimensional hyperplane. The results easily generalize to this degenerate situation by considering appropriate projections of y and z. Similar remarks are in order for the non-degeneracy assumptions on ? and A. 3 2.2 Non-white noise Suppose now that B ? Rn is a centred non-degenerate normal Gaussian variable with a (positive definite) covariance matrix ?. Using a standard noise whitening technique, ??1/2 B ? N (0, I). This makes our denoising problem equivalent to y? = z? +b? , with y? := ??1/2 y, z? := ??1/2 z and b? := ??1/2 b, which is drawn from a Gaussian distribution with an identity covariance matrix. Finally, let k.k? be the norm induced by the scalar product hx, yi? := hx, ??1 yi. Corollary 1 (non-white Gaussian noise). For any non-degenerate prior PZ , any non-degenerate ?, Y = Z + B, we have: 1. ?I,?,PZ is one-to-one. 2. ?I,?,PZ and its inverse are C ? . 3. ?y ? Rn , ?I,?,PZ (y) is the unique global minimum and stationary point of z 7? 1 ky ? Izk2? + ?I,?,PZ (z). 2 with ?I,?,PZ (z) := ?I,I,P??1/2 Z (??1/2 z) 4. ?I,?,PZ is C ? . As with white noise, up to an additive constant, ?I,?,PZ is the only penalty with these properties. Proof. First, we introduce a simple lemma that is pivotal throughout each step of this section. Lemma 1. For any function f : Rn ? R and any M ? Rn?p , we have: M argmin f (M v) = v?Rp argmin f (u). u?range(M )?Rn Now, the linearity of the (conditional) expectation makes it possible to write ??1/2 E(Z|Y = y) = E(??1/2 Z|??1/2 Y = ??1/2 y) ? ??1/2 ?I,?,PZ (y) = ?I,I,P??1/2 Z (??1/2 y). Using Theorem 1, it follows that: ?I,?,PZ (y) = ?1/2 ?I,I,P??1/2 Z (??1/2 y) From this property and Theorem 1, it is clear that ?I,?,PZ is one-to-one, C ? , as well as its inverse. Now, using Lemma 1 with M = ?1/2 , we get:   1 ?1/2 ?I,?,PZ (y) = ?1/2 argmin k? y ? z 0 k2 + ?I,I,P??1/2 Z (z 0 ) 2 z 0 ?Rn   1 ?1/2 = argmin k? y ? ??1/2 zk2 + ?I,I,P??1/2 Z (??1/2 z) 2 z?Rn   1 ky ? zk2? + ?I,?,PZ (z) , = argmin 2 z?Rn with ?I,?,PZ (z) := ?I,I,P??1/2 Z (??1/2 z). This definition also makes it clear that ?I,?,PZ is C ? , and that this minimizer is unique (and is the only stationary point). 4 2.3 A simple under-determined problem As a step towards handling the more generic linear inverse problem y = Az + b, we will investigate the particular case where A = [I 0]. For the sake of readability, for any two (column) vectors u, v, let us denote [u; v] the concatenated (column) vector. First and foremost let us decompose the MMSE estimator into two parts, composed of the first n and last (D ? n) components : ?[I 0],?,PZ (y) := [?1 (y); ?2 (y)] Corollary 2 (simple under-determined problem). For any non-degenerate prior PZ , any nondegenerate ?, we have: 1. ?1 (y) = ?I,?,PZ (y) is one-to-one and C ? . Its inverse and ?I,?,PZ are also C ? ; 2. ?2 (y) = (pB ? g)(y)/(pB ? PZ )(y) (with g(z1 ) := E(Z2 |Z1 = z1 )p(z1 )) is C ? ; 3. ?[I 0],?,PZ is injective. Moreover, let h : R(D?n) ? R(D?n) 7? R+ be any function such that h(x1 , x2 ) = 0 ? x1 = x2 , 3. ?y ? Rn , ?[I 0],?,PZ (y) is the unique global minimum and stationary point of 1 ky ? [I 0]zk2? + ?h[I 0],?,PZ (z) 2  ?1 0],?,PZ (z) := ?I,?,PZ (z1 ) + h z2 , ?2 ? ?1 (z1 ) and z = [z1 ; z2 ]. z 7? with ?h[I 4. ?[I 0],?,PZ is C ? if and only if h is. Proof. The expression of ?2 (y) is obtained by Bayes rule in the integral defining the conditional expectation. The smoothing effect of convolution with the Gaussian pB (b) implies the C ? nature of ?2 . Let Z1 = [I 0]Z. Using again the linearity of the expectation, we have: [I 0]?[I 0],?,PZ (y) = E([I 0]Z|Y = y) = E(Z1 |Y = y) = ?I,?,PZ (y). Hence, ?1 (y) = ?I,?,PZ (y). Given the properties of h, we have: ?2 (y) = argmin h z2 , ?2 ? ?1?1 ?1 (y)  . z2 ?R(D?n) It follows that: ?[I 0],?,PZ (y) = argmin z=[z1 ;z2 ]?RD  1 ky ? z1 k2? + ?I,?,PZ (z1 ) + h z2 , ?2 ? ?1?1 (z1 ) . 2 From the definitions of ?[I 0],?,PZ and h, it is clear, using Corollary 1 that ?[I 0],?,PZ is injective, is the unique minimizer and stationary point, and that ?[I 0],?,PZ is C ? if and only if h is. 2.4 Inverse Problem We are now equipped to generalize our result to an arbitrary full rank matrix A. Using the Singular Value Decomposition, A can be factored as: ? [I 0]V > , with U ? = U ?. A = U [? 0]V > = U ? ?1 y = [I 0]V > z + U ? ?1 b =: z 0 + b0 . Our problem is now equivalent to y 0 := U ?1 ?> ? =U ? ?U ? ? Let ? . Note that B 0 ? N (0, ?). Theorem 2 (Main result). Let h : R(D?n) ? R(D?n) 7? R+ be any function such that h(x1 , x2 ) = 0 ? x1 = x2 . For any non-degenerate prior PZ , any non-degenerate ? and A, we have: 1. ?A,?,PZ is injective. 5 2. ?y ? Rn , ?[I 0],?,PZ (y) is the unique global minimum and stationary point of z 7? 12 ky ? Azk2? + ?hA,?,PZ (z), with ?hA,?,PZ (z) := ?h[I 0],?,P (V > z). ? V >Z 3. ?A,?,PZ is C ? if and only if h is. Proof. First note that: V > ?A,?,PZ (y) = V > E(Z|Y = y) = E(Z 0 |Y 0 = y 0 ) = ?[I 1 h = argmin kU > y ? [I 0]z 0 k2? ? + ?[I 0 2 z ? 0],?,P Z0 ? 0],?,P V >Z (z 0 ), using Corollary 2. Now, using Lemma 1, we have:   1 h (V > z) ?A,?,PZ (y) = argmin kU > y ? U [I 0]V > k2? ? + ?[I 0],?,P ? V >Z 2 z 1 = argmin ky ? Azk2? + ?h[I 0],?,P (V > z) ? V >Z 2 z The other properties come naturally from those of Corollary 2. Remark 1. If A is invertible (hence square), ?A,?,PZ is one-to-one. It is also C ? , as well as its inverse and ?A,?,PZ . 3 Connections between the MMSE and regularization-based estimators Equipped with the results from the previous sections, we can now have a clearer idea about how MMSE estimators, and those produced by a regularization-based approach relate to each other. This is the object of the present section. 3.1 Obvious connections Some simple observations of the main theorem can already shed some light on those connections. First, for any prior, and as long as A is invertible, we have shown that there exists a corresponding regularizing term (which is unique up to an additive constant). This simply means that the set of MMSE estimators in linear inverse problems with Gaussian noise is a subset of the set of estimators that can be produced by a regularization approach with a quadratic data-fitting term. Second, since the corresponding penalty is necessarily smooth, it is in fact only a strict subset of such regularization estimators. In other words, for some regularizers, there cannot be any interpretation in terms of an MMSE estimator. For instance, as pinpointed by [8], all the non-C ? regularizers belong to that category. Among them, all the sparsity-inducing regularizers (the `1 norm, among others) fall into this scope. This means that when it comes to solving a linear inverse problem (with an invertible A) under Gaussian noise, sparsity inducing penalties are necessarily suboptimal (in a mean squared error sense). 3.2 Relating desired computational properties to the evidence Let us now focus on the MMSE estimators (which also can be written as regularization-based estimators). As reported in the introduction, one of the reasons explaining the success of the optimizationbased approaches is that one can have a better control on the computational efficiency on the algorithms via some appealing properties of the functional to minimize. An interesting question then is: can we relate these properties of the regularizer to the Bayesian priors, when interpreting the solution as an MMSE estimate? For instance, when the regularizer is separable, one may easily rely on coordinate descent algorithms [9]. Here is a more formal definition: Definition 1 (Separability). A vector-valued function f : Rn ? Rn is separable if there exists a set n of functions f1 , . . . , fn : R ? R such that ?x ? Rn , f (x) = (fi (xi ))i=1 . 6 A scalar-valued function g : Rn ? R is additively separable (resp. multiplicatively Pn separable) if n there exists a set of functions g , . . . , g : R ? R such that ?x ? R , g(x) = 1 n i=1 gi (xi ) (resp. Qn g(x) = i=1 gi (xi )). Especially when working with high-dimensional data, coordinate descent algorithms have proven to be very efficient and have been extensively used for machine learning [10, 11]. Even more evidently, when solving optimization problems, dealing with convex functions ensures that many algorithms will provably converge to the global minimizer [6]. As a consequence, it would be interesting to be able to characterize the set of priors for which the MMSE estimate can be expressed as a minimizer of a convex function. The following lemma precisely addresses these issues. For the sake of simplicity and readability, we focus on the specific case where A = I and ? = I. Lemma 2 (Convexity and Separability). For any non-degenerate prior PZ , Theorem 1 says that ?y ? Rn , ?I,I,PZ (y) is the unique global minimum and stationary point of z 7? 21 ky ? Izk2 + ?I,I,PZ (z). Moreover, the following results hold: 1. ?I,I,PZ is convex if and only if pY (y) := pB ? PZ (y) is log-concave, 2. ?I,I,PZ is additively separable if and only if pY (y) is multiplicatively separable. Proof of Lemma 2. From Lemma II.1 in [8], the Jacobian matrix J[?I,I,PZ ](y) is positive definite hence invertible. Derivating ?I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ (y)] from its definition in Theorem 1, we get: J[?I,I,PZ ](y)??I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ (y)]   1 2 = ? ? ky ? ?I,I,PZ (y)k2 ? log pY (y) 2 = ? (In ? J[?I,I,PZ ](y)) (y ? ?I,I,PZ (y)) ? ? log pY (y) = (In ? J[?I,I,PZ ](y)) ? log pY (y) ? ? log pY (y) = ?J[?I,I,PZ ](y)? log pY (y) Then: ??I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ (y)] = ?? log pY (y). Derivating this expression once more, we get: J[?I,I,PZ ](y)?2 ?I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ (y)] = ??2 log pY (y). Hence: ?2 ?I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ (y)] = ?J ?1 [?I,I,PZ ](y)?2 log pY (y). As ?I,I,PZ is one-to-one, ?I,I,PZ is convex if and only if ?I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ ] is. It also follows that: ?I,I,PZ convex ? ?2 ?I,I,PZ [?I,I,PZ (y)] < 0 ? ?J ?1 [?I,I,PZ ](y)?2 log pY (y) < 0 As J[?I,I,PZ ](y) = In + ?2 log pY (y), the matrices ?2 log pY (y), J[?I,I,PZ ](y), and J ?1 [?I,I,PZ ](y) are simultaneously diagonalisable. It follows that the matrices J ?1 [?I,I,PZ ](y) and ?2 log pY (y) commute. Now, as J[?I,I,PZ ](y) is positive definite, we have: ?J ?1 [?I,I,PZ ](y)?2 log pY (y) < 0 ? ?2 log pY (y) 4 0. It follows that ?I,I,PZ is convex if and only if pY (y) := pB ? PX (y) is log-concave. By its definition (II.3) in [8], it is clear that: ?I,I,PZ is additively separable ? ?I,I,PZ is separable. Using now equation (II.2) in [8], we have: ?I,I,PZ is separable ? ? log pY is separable ? log pY is additively separable ? pY is multiplicatively separable. 7 Remark 2. This lemma focuses on the specific case where A = I and a white Gaussian noise. However, considering the transformations induced by a shift to an arbitrary invertible matrix A and to an arbitrary non-degenerate covariance matrix ?, which are depicted throughout Section 2, it is easy to see that the result on convexity carries over. An analogous (but more complicated) result could be also derived regarding separability. We leave that part to the interested reader. These results provide a precise characterization of conditions on the Bayesian priors so that the MMSE estimator can be expressed as minimizer of a convex or separable function. Interestingly, those conditions are expressed in terms of the probability distribution function (pdf in short) of the observations pY , which is sometimes referred to as the evidence. The fact that the evidence plays a key role in Bayesian estimation has been observed in many contexts, see for example [12]. Given that we assume that the noise is Gaussian, its pdf pB always is log-concave. Thanks to a simple property of the convolution of log-concave functions, it is sufficient that the prior on the signal pZ is log-concave to ensure that pY also is. However, it is not a necessary condition. This means that there are some priors pX that are not log-concave such that the associated MMSE estimator can still be expressed as the minimizer of a functional with a convex regularizer. For a more detailed analysis of this last point, in the specific context of Bernoulli-Gaussian priors (which are not log-concave), please refer to the technical report [13]. From this result, one may also draw an interesting negative result. If the distribution of the observation y is not log-concave, then, the MMSE estimate cannot be expressed as the solution of a convex regularization-oriented formulation. This means that, with a quadratic data-fitting term, a convex approach to signal estimation cannot be optimal (in a mean squared error sense). 4 Prospects In this paper we have extended a result, stating that in the context of linear inverse problems with Gaussian noise, for any Bayesian prior, there exists a regularizer ? such that the MMSE estimator can be expressed as the solution of regularized regression problem (2). This result is a generalization of a result in [8]. However, we think it could be extended with regards to many aspects. For instance, our proof of the result naturally builds on elementary bricks that combine in a way that is imposed by the definition of the linear inverse problem. However, by developing more bricks and combining them in different ways, it may be possible to derive analogous results for a variety of other problems. Moreover, in the situation where A is not invertible (i.e. the problem is under-determined), there is a large set of admissible regularizers (i.e. up to the choice of a function h in Corollary 2). This additional degree of freedom might be leveraged in order to provide some additional desirable properties, from an optimization perspective, for instance. Also, our result relies heavily on the choice of a quadratic loss for the data-fitting term and on a Gaussian model for the noise. Naturally, investigating other choices (e.g. logistic or hinge loss, Poisson noise, to name a few) is a question of interest. But a careful study of the proofs in [8] suggests that there is a peculiar connection between the Gaussian noise model on the one hand and the quadratic loss on the other hand. However, further investigations should be conducted to get a deeper understanding on how these really interplay on a higher level. Finally, we have stated a number of negative results regarding the non-optimality of sparse decoders or of convex formulations for handling observations drawn from a distribution that is not log-concave. It would be interesting to develop a metric in the estimators space in order to quantify, for instance, how ?far? one arbitrary estimator is from an optimal one, or, in other words, what is the intrinsic cost of convex relaxations. Acknowledgements This work was supported in part by the European Research Council, PLEASE project (ERC-StG2011-277906). 8 References [1] Arthur E. Hoerl and Robert W. Kennard. Ridge regression: applications to nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics, 12(1):69?82, 1970. [2] Robert Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 58(1):267?288, 1996. [3] Matthieu Kowalski. Sparse regression using mixed norms. Applied and Computational Harmonic Analysis, 27(3):303?324, 2009. [4] Francis Bach, Rodolphe Jenatton, Julien Mairal, and Guillaume Obozinski. Optmization with sparsity-inducing penalties. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 4(1):1?106, 2012. [5] Rodolphe Jenatton, Guillaume Obozinski, and Francis Bach. Active set algorithm for structured sparsity-inducing norms. In OPT 2009: 2nd NIPS Workshop on Optimization for Machine Learning, 2009. [6] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [7] R?emi Gribonval, Volkan Cevher, and Mike Davies, E. Compressible Distributions for Highdimensional Statistics. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2012. [8] R?emi Gribonval. Should penalized least squares regression be interpreted as maximum a posteriori estimation? IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 59(5):2405?2410, 2011. [9] Y. Nesterov. Efficiency of coordinate descent methods on huge-scale optimization problems. Core discussion papers, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), Catholic University of Louvain, 2010. [10] C.-J. Hsieh, K.-W. Chang, C.-J. Lin, S. Sathiya Keerthi, and S. Sundararajan. A dual coordinate descent method for large-scale linear svm. In Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 408?415, 2008. [11] Pierre Machart, Thomas Peel, Liva Ralaivola, Sandrine Anthoine, and Herv?e Glotin. Stochastic low-rank kernel learning for regression. In 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2011. [12] Martin Raphan and Eero P. Simoncelli. Learning to be bayesian without supervision. In in Adv. Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS*06. MIT Press, 2007. [13] R?emi Gribonval and Pierre Machart. Reconciling ?priors? & ?priors? without prejudice? Research report RR-8366, INRIA, September 2013. 9
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Robust Sparse Principal Component Regression under the High Dimensional Elliptical Model Han Liu Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 [email protected] Fang Han Department of Biostatistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21210 [email protected] Abstract In this paper we focus on the principal component regression and its application to high dimension non-Gaussian data. The major contributions are two folds. First, in low dimensions and under the Gaussian model, by borrowing the strength from recent development in minimax optimal principal component estimation, we first time sharply characterize the potential advantage of classical principal component regression over least square estimation. Secondly, we propose and analyze a new robust sparse principal component regression on high dimensional elliptically distributed data. The elliptical distribution is a semiparametric generalization of the Gaussian, including many well known distributions such as multivariate Gaussian, rank-deficient Gaussian, t, Cauchy, and logistic. It allows the random vector to be heavy tailed and have tail dependence. These extra flexibilities make it very suitable for modeling finance and biomedical imaging data. Under the elliptical model, we prove that our method can estimate the regression coefficients in the optimal parametric rate and therefore is a good alternative to the Gaussian based methods. Experiments on synthetic and real world data are conducted to illustrate the empirical usefulness of the proposed method. 1 Introduction Principal component regression (PCR) has been widely used in statistics for years (Kendall, 1968). Take the classical linear regression with random design for example. Let x1 , . . . , xn ? Rd be n independent realizations of a random vector X ? Rd with mean 0 and covariance matrix ?. The classical linear regression model and simple principal component regression model can be elaborated as follows: (Classical linear regression model) Y = X? + ; (Principal Component Regression Model) Y = ?Xu1 + , (1.1) where X = (x1 , . . . , xn )T ? Rn?d , Y ? Rn , ui is the i-th leading eigenvector of ?, and  ? Nn (0, ? 2 Id ) is independent of X, ? ? Rd and ? ? R. Here Id ? Rd?d is the identity matrix. The b1 principal component regression then can be conducted in two steps: First we obtain an estimator u b 1 and solve a simple linear regression in of u1 ; Secondly we project the data in the direction of u estimating ?. By checking Equation (1.1), it is easy to observe that the principal component regression model is a subset of the general linear regression (LR) model with the constraint that the regression coefficient ? is proportional to u1 . There has been a lot of discussions on the advantage of principal component regression over classical linear regression. In low dimensional settings, Massy (1965) pointed out that principal component regression can be much more efficient in handling collinearity among predictors compared to the linear regression. More recently, Cook (2007) and Artemiou and Li (2009) argued that principal component regression has potential to play a more important role. In particb of x1 , . . . , xn , b j be the j-th leading eigenvector of the sample covariance matrix ? ular, letting u 1 Artemiou and Li (2009) show that under mild conditions with high probability the correlation between the response Y and Xb ui is higher than or equal to the correlation between Y and Xb uj when i < j. This indicates, although not rigorous, there is possibility that principal component regression can borrow strength from the low rank structure of ?, which motivates our work. Even though the statistical performance of principal component regression in low dimensions is not fully understood, there is even less analysis on principal component regression in high dimensions where the dimension d can be even exponentially larger than the sample size n. This is partially due to the fact that estimating the leading eigenvectors of ? itself has been difficult enough. For example, Johnstone and Lu (2009) show that, even under the Gaussian model, when d/n ? ? b 1 can be an inconsistent estimator of for some ? > 0, there exist multiple settings under which u u1 . To attack this ?curse of dimensionality?, one solution is adding a sparsity assumption on u1 , leading to various versions of the sparse PCA. See, Zou et al. (2006); d?Aspremont et al. (2007); Moghaddam et al. (2006), among others. Under the (sub)Gaussian settings, minimax optimal rates are being established in estimating u1 , . . . , um (Vu and Lei, 2012; Ma, 2013; Cai et al., 2013). Very recently, Han and Liu (2013b) relax the Gaussian assumption in conducting a scale invariant version of the sparse PCA (i.e., estimating the leading eigenvector of the correlation instead of the covariance matrix). However, it can not be easily applied to estimate u1 and the rate of convergence they proved is not the parametric rate. This paper improves upon the aforementioned results in two directions. First, with regard to the classical principal component regression, under a double asymptotic framework in which d is allowed to increase with n, by borrowing the very recent development in principal component analysis (Vershynin, 2010; Lounici, 2012; Bunea and Xiao, 2012), we for the first time explicitly show the advantage of principal component regression over the classical linear regression. We explicitly confirm the following two advantages of principal component regression: (i) Principal component regression is insensitive to collinearity, while linear regression is very sensitive to; (ii) Principal component regression can utilize the low rank structure of the covariance matrix ?, while linear regression cannot. Secondly, in high dimensions where d can increase much faster, even exponentially faster, than n, we propose a robust method in conducting (sparse) principal component regression under a nonGaussian elliptical model. The elliptical distribution is a semiparametric generalization to the Gaussian, relaxing the light tail and zero tail dependence constraints, but preserving the symmetry property. We refer to Kl?uppelberg et al. (2007) for more details. This distribution family includes many well known distributions such as multivariate Gaussian, rank deficient Gaussian, t, logistic, and many others. Under the elliptical model, we exploit the result in Han and Liu (2013a), who showed that by utilizing a robust covariance matrix estimator, the multivariate Kendall?s tau, we can obtain e 1 , which can recover u1 in the optimal parametric rate as shown in Vu and Lei (2012). an estimator u e 1 in conducting principal We then exploit u p component regression and show that the obtained estimator ?? can estimate ? in the optimal s log d/n rate. The optimal rate in estimating u1 and ?, combined with the discussion in the classical principal component regression, indicates that the proposed method has potential to handle high dimensional complex data and has its advantage over high dimensional linear regression methods, such as ridge regression and lasso. These theoretical results are also backed up by numerical experiments on both synthetic and real world equity data. 2 Classical Principal Component Regression This section is devoted to the discussion on the advantage of classical principal component regression over the classical linear regression. We start with a brief introduction of notations. Let M = [Mij ] ? Rd?d and v = (v1 , ..., vd )T ? Rd . We denote vI to be the subvector of v whose entries are indexed by a set I. We also denote MI,J to be the submatrix of M whose rows are indexed by I and columns are indexed by J. Let MI? and M?J be the submatrix of M with rows indexed by I, and the submatrix of M with columns indexed by J. Let supp(v) := {j : vj 6= 0}. For 0 < q < ?, we define the `0 , `q and `? vector norms as d X kvk0 := card(supp(v)), kvkq := ( |vi |q )1/q and kvk? := max |vi |. i=1 1?i?d Let Tr(M) be the trace of M. Let ?j (M) be the j-th largest eigenvalue of M and ?j (M) be the corresponding leading eigenvector. In particular, we let ?max (M) := ?1 (M) and ?min (M) := 2 ?d (M). We define Sd?1 := {v ? Rd : kvk2 = 1} to be the d-dimensional unit sphere. We define the matrix `max norm and `2 norm as kMkmax := max{|Mij |} and kMk2 := supv?Sd?1 kMvk2 . We define diag(M) to be a diagonal matrix with [diag(M)]jj = Mjj for j = 1, . . . , d. We denote c,C vec(M) := (MT?1 , . . . , MT?d )T . For any two sequence {an } and {bn }, we denote an  bn if there exist two fixed constants c, C such that c ? an /bn ? C. Let x1 , . . . , xn ? Rd be n independent observations of a d-dimensional random vector X ? Nd (0, ?), u1 := ?1 (?) and 1 , . . . , n ? N1 (0, ? 2 ) are independent from each other and {Xi }ni=1 . We suppose that the following principal component regression model holds: Y = ?Xu1 + , (2.1) where Y = (Y1 , . . . , Yn )T ? Rn , X = [x1 , . . . , xn ]T ? Rn?d and  = (1 , . . . , n )T ? Rn . We are interested in estimating the regression coefficient ? := ?u1 . Let ?b represent the solution of the classical least square estimator without taking the information that ? is proportional to u1 into account. ?b can be expressed as follows: ?b := (XT X)?1 XT Y . (2.2) We then have the following proposition, which shows that the mean square error of ?b ? ? is highly related to the scale of ?min (?). Proposition 2.1. Under the principal component regression model shown in (2.1), we have   ?2 1 1 2 b Ek? ? ?k2 = + ??? + . n ? d ? 1 ?1 (?) ?d (?) Proposition 2.1 reflects the vulnerability of least square estimator on the collinearity. More specifically, when ?d (?) is extremely small, going to zero in the scale of O(1/n), ?b can be an inconsistent estimator even when d is fixed. On the other hand, using the Markov inequality, when ?d (?) is lowerpbounded by a fixed constant and d = o(n), the rate of convergence of ?b is well known to be OP ( d/n). Motivated from Equation (2.1), the classical principal component regression estimator can be elaborated as follows. b := 1 P xi xT . b 1 of the sample covariance ? (1) We first estimate u1 using the leading eigenvector u n i (2) We then estimate ? ? R in Equation (2.1) by the standard least square estimation on the projected b := Xb data Z u 1 ? Rn : b T Z) b ?1 Z bT Y , ? e := (Z b 1 . We then have The final principal component regression estimator ?e is then obtained as ?e = ? eu e the following important theorem, which provides a rate of convergence for ? to approximate ?. Theorem 2.2. Let r? (?) := Tr(?)/?max (?) represent the effective rank of ? (Vershynin, 2010). Suppose that r r? (?) log d = o(1). k?k2 ? n Under the Model (2.1), when ?max (?) > c1 and ?2 (?)/?1 (?) < C1 < 1 for some fixed constants C1 and c1 , we have (r ! r ) ? (?) log d 1 1 r k?e ? ?k2 = OP + ?+ p ? . (2.3) n n ?max (?) Theorem 2.2, compared to Proposition 2.1, provides several important messages on the performance b ?e is insensitive of principal component regression. First, compared to the least square estimator ?, e Secondly, to collinearity in the sense that ?min (?) plays no role in the rate of convergence of ?. when ?min (?) is lower bounded by apfixed constant and ? is upper bounded by a fixed constant, p the rate of convergence for ?b is OP ( d/n) and for ?e is OP ( r? (?) log d/n), while r? (?) := 3 Tr(?)/?max (?) ? d and is of order o(d) when there exists a low rank structure for ?. These two observations, combined together, illustrate the advantages of the classical principal component regression over least square estimation. These advantages justify the use of principal component e unlike ?, b depends on ?. regression. There is one more thing to be noted: the performance of ?, When ? is small, ?e can predict ? more accurately. 1.0 These three observations are verified in Figure 1. Here the data are generated according to Equation (2.1) and we set n = 100, d = 10, ? to be a diagonal matrix with descending diagonal values ?ii = ?i and ? 2 = 1. In Figure 1(A), we set ? = 1, ?1 = 10, ?j = 1 for j = 2, . . . , d ? 1, and changing ?d from 1 to 1/100; In Figure 1(B), we set ? = 1, ?j = 1 for j = 2, . . . , d and changing ?1 from 1 to 100; In Figure 1(C), we set ?1 = 10, ?j = 1 for j = 2, . . . , d, and changing ? from 0.1 to 10. In the three figures, the empirical mean square error is plotted against 1/?d , ?1 , and ?. It can be observed that the results, each by each, matches the theory. 0.8 20 40 60 80 100 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0 LR PCR 0.4 Mean Square Error 0.6 0.4 0.2 Mean Square Error 0.6 0.4 LR PCR 0.2 Mean Square Error 0.8 0.8 1.0 LR PCR 0 20 40 1/lambda_min 60 80 lambda_max A B 100 0 2 4 6 8 10 alpha C Figure 1: Justification of Proposition 2.1 and Theorem 2.2. The empirical mean square errors are plotted against 1/?d , ?1 , and ? separately in (A), (B), and (C). Here the results of classical linear regression and principal component regression are marked in black solid line and red dotted line. 3 Robust Sparse Principal Component Regression under Elliptical Model In this section, we propose a new principal component regression method. We generalize the settings in classical principal component regression discussed in the last section in two directions: (i) We consider the high dimensional settings where the dimension d can be much larger than the sample size n; (ii) In modeling the predictors x1 , . . . , xn , we consider a more general elliptical, instead of the Gaussian distribution family. The elliptical family can capture characteristics such as heavy tails and tail dependence, making it more suitable for analyzing complex datasets in finance, genomics, and biomedical imaging. 3.1 Elliptical Distribution In this section we define the elliptical distribution and introduce the basic property of the elliptical d distribution. We denote by X = Y if random vectors X and Y have the same distribution. Here we only consider the continuous random vectors with density existing. To our knowledge, there are essentially four ways to define the continuous elliptical distribution with density. The most intuitive way is as follows: A random vector X ? Rd is said to follow an elliptical distribution ECd (?, ?, ?) if and only there exists a random variable ? > 0 (a.s.) and a Gaussian distribution Z ? Nd (0, ?) such that d X = ? + ?Z. (3.1) Note that here ? is not necessarily independent of Z. Accordingly, elliptical distribution can be regarded as a semiparametric generalization to the Gaussian distribution, with the nonparametric part ?. Because ? can be very heavy tailed, X can also be very heavy tailed. Moreover, when E? 2 exists, we have Cov(X) = E? 2 ? and ?j (Cov(X)) = ?j (?) for j = 1, . . . , d. This implies that, when E? 2 exists, to recover u1 := ?1 (Cov(X)), we only need to recover ?1 (?). Here ? is conventionally called the scatter matrix. 4 We would like to point out that the elliptical family is significantly larger than the Gaussian. In fact, Gaussian is fully parameterized by finite dimensional parameters (mean and variance). In contrast, the elliptical is a semiparametric family (since the elliptical density can be represented as g((x??)T ?? 1(x??)) where the function g(?) function is completely unspecified.). If we consider the ?volumes? of the family of the elliptical family and the Gaussian family with respect to the Lebesgue reference measure, the volume of Gaussian family is zero (like a line in a 3-dimensional space), while the volume of the elliptical family is positive (like a ball in a 3-dimensional space). 3.2 Multivariate Kendall?s tau As a important step in conducting the principal component regression, we need to estimate u1 = ?1 (Cov(X)) = ?1 (?) as accurately as possible. Since the random variable ? in Equation (3.1) can be very heavy tailed, the according elliptical distributed random vector can be heavy tailed. Therefore, as has been pointed out by various authors (Tyler, 1987; Croux et al., 2002; Han and Liu, b can be a bad estimator in esti2013b), the leading eigenvector of the sample covariance matrix ? mating u1 = ?1 (?) under the elliptical distribution. This motivates developing robust estimator. In particular, in this paper we consider using the multivariate Kendall?s tau (Choi and Marden, 1998) and recently deeply studied by Han and Liu (2013a). In the following we give a brief description f be an independent copy of X. The population of this estimator. Let X ? ECd (?, ?, ?) and X multivariate Kendall?s tau matrix, denoted by K ? Rd?d , is defined as: ! f fT (X ? X)(X ? X) K := E . (3.2) f 2 kX ? Xk 2 Let x1 , . . . , xn be n independent observations of X. The sample version of multivariate Kendall?s tau is accordingly defined as b = K X (xi ? xj )(xi ? xj )T 1 , n(n ? 1) kxi ? xj k22 (3.3) i6=j b = K. K b is a matrix version U statistic and it is easy to see that and we have that E(K) b b is a bounded matrix and hence can be a nicer maxjk |Kjk | ? 1, maxjk |Kjk | ? 1. Therefore, K statistic than the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we have the following important proposition, coming from Oja (2010), showing that K has the same eigenspace as ? and Cov(X). Proposition 3.1 (Oja (2010)). Let X ? ECd (?, ?, ?) be a continuous distribution and K be the population multivariate Kendall?s tau statistic. Then if ?j (?) 6= ?k (?) for any k 6= j, we have ! ?j (?)Uj2 ?j (?) = ?j (K) and ?j (K) = E , (3.4) ?1 (?)U12 + . . . + ?d (?)Ud2 where U := (U1 , . . . , Ud )T follows a uniform distribution in Sd?1 . In particular, when E? 2 exists, ?j (Cov(X)) = ?j (K). 3.3 Model and Method In this section we discuss the model we build and the accordingly proposed method in conducting high dimensional (sparse) principal component regression on non-Gaussian data. Similar as in Section 2, we consider the classical simple principal component regression model: Y = ?Xu1 +  = ?[x1 , . . . , xn ]T u1 + . To relax the Gaussian assumption, we assume that both x1 , . . . , xn ? Rd and 1 , . . . , n ? R be elliptically distributed. We assume that xi ? ECd (0, ?, ?). To allow the dimension d increasing much faster than n, we impose a sparsity structure on u1 = ?1 (?). Moreover, to make u1 identifiable, we assume that ?1 (?) 6= ?2 (?). Thusly, the formal model of the robust sparse principal component regression considered in this paper is as follows:  Y = ?Xu1 + , Md (Y , ; ?, ?, s) : (3.5) x1 , . . . , xn ? ECd (0, ?, ?), k?1 (?)k0 ? s, ?1 (?) 6= ?2 (?). 5 Then the robust sparse principal component regression can be elaborated as a two step procedure: (i) Inspired by the model Md (Y , ; ?, ?, s) and Proposition 3.1, we consider the following optimization problem to estimate u1 := ?1 (?): b e 1 = arg max v T Kv, u subject to v ? Sd?1 ? B0 (s), (3.6) v?Rd b is the estimated multivariate Kendall?s tau matrix. where B0 (s) := {v ? Rd : kvk0 ? s} and K e 1 . Using Proposition 3.1, u e 1 is also an estimator The corresponding global optimum is denoted by u of ?1 (Cov(X)), whenever the covariance matrix exists. (ii) We then estimate ? ? R in Equation (3.5) by the standard least square estimation on the projected e := Xe data Z u 1 ? Rn : e T Z) e ?1 Z eT Y , ? ? := (Z e1 . The final principal component regression estimator ?? is then obtained as ?? = ? ?u 3.4 Theoretical Property In Theorem 2.2, we show that how to estimate u1 accurately plays an important role in conducting the principal component regression. Following this discussion and the very recent results in Han and Liu (2013a), the following ?easiest? and ?hardest? conditions are considered. Here ?L , ?U are two constants larger than 1. 1,?U 1,?U Condition 1 (?Easiest?): ?1 (?)  d?j (?) for any j ? {2, . . . , d} and ?2 (?)  ?j (?) for any j ? {3, . . . , d}; Condition 2 (?Hardest?): ?1 (?) ?L ,?U  ?j (?) for any j ? {2, . . . , d}. In the sequel, we say that the model Md (Y , ; ?, ?, s) holds if the data (Y , X) are generated using the model Md (Y , ; ?, ?, s). Under Conditions 1 and 2, wepthen have the following theorem, which shows that under certain conditions, k?? ? ?k2 = OP ( s log d/n), which is the optimal parametric rate in estimating the regression coefficient (Ravikumar et al., 2008). Theorem 3.2. Let the model Md (Y , ; ?, ?, s) hold and |?| in Equation (3.5) are upper bounded by a constant and k?k2 is lower bounded by a constant. Then under Condition 1 or Condition 2 and for all random vector X such that max v?Sd?1 ,kvk0 ?2s b ? ?)v| = oP (1), |v T (? we have the robust principal component regression estimator ?? satisfies that ! r s log d ? . k? ? ?k2 = OP n multivariate-t EC1 EC2 20 40 60 number of selected features 80 1.4 0.8 0.2 0 20 40 60 80 0 number of selected features 20 40 60 number of selected features 80 PCR RPCR 0.0 PCR RPCR 0.0 PCR RPCR 0.0 0.0 PCR RPCR 0 0.6 averaged error 0.4 0.5 averaged error 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 averaged error 0.8 0.6 0.4 averaged error 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 Normal 0 20 40 60 80 number of selected features Figure 2: Curves of averaged estimation errors between the estimates and true parameters for different distributions (normal, multivariate-t, EC1, and EC2, from left to right) using the truncated power method. Here n = 100, d = 200, and we are interested in estimating the regression coefficient ?. The horizontal-axis represents the cardinalities of the estimates? support sets and the vertical-axis represents the empirical mean square error. Here from the left to the right, the minimum mean square errors for lasso are 0.53, 0.55, 1, and 1. 6 4 Experiments In this section we conduct study on both synthetic and real-world data to investigate the empirical performance of the robust sparse principal component regression proposed in this paper. We use the truncated power algorithm proposed in Yuan and Zhang (2013) to approximate the global optimums e 1 to (3.6). Here the cardinalities of the support sets of the leading eigenvectors are treated as tuning u parameters. The following three methods are considered: lasso: the classical L1 penalized regression; PCR: The sparse principal component regression using the sample covariance matrix as the sufficient statistic and exploiting the truncated power algorithm in estimating u1 ; RPCR: The robust sparse principal component regression proposed in this paper, using the multivariate Kendall?s tau as the sufficient statistic and exploiting the truncated power algorithm to estimate u1 . 4.1 Simulation Study In this section, we conduct simulation study to back up the theoretical results and further investigate the empirical performance of the proposed robust sparse principal component regression method. To illustrate the empirical usefulness of the proposed method, we first consider generating the data matrix X. To generate X, we need to consider how to generate ? and ?. In detail, let ?1 > ?2 > ?3 = . . . = ?d be the eigenvalues and u1 , . . . , ud be the eigenvectors of ? with uj := (uj1 , . . . , ujd )T . The top 2 leading eigenvectors u1 , u2 of ? are specified to be sparse with sj := Pj?1 Pj ? kuj k0 and ujk = 1/ sj for k ? [1 + i=1 si , i=1 si ] and zero for all the others. ? is generated P2 as ? = j=1 (?j ??d )uj uTj +?d Id . Across all settings, we let s1 = s2 = 10, ?1 = 5.5, ?2 = 2.5, and ?j = 0.5 for all j = 3, . . . , d. With ?, we then consider the following four different elliptical distributions: d (Normal) X ? ECd (0, ?, ?1 ) with ?1 = ?d . Here ?d is the chi-distribution with degree of freedom p d i.i.d. d. For Y1 , . . . , Yd ? N (0, 1), Y12 + . . . + Yd2 = ?d . In this setting, X follows the Gaussian distribution (Fang et al., 1990). d d d ? (Multivariate-t) X ? ECd (0, ?, ?2 ) with ?2 = ??1? /?2? . Here ?1? = ?d and ?2? = ?? with + ? ? Z . In this setting, X follows a multivariate-t distribution with degree of freedom ? (Fang et al., 1990). Here we consider ? = 3. (EC1) X ? ECd (0, ?, ?3 ) with ?3 ? F (d, 1), an F distribution. (EC2) X ? ECd (0, ?, ?4 ) with ?4 ? Exp(1), an exponential distribution. We then simulate x1 , . . . , xn from X. This forms a data matrix X. Secondly, we let Y = Xu1 + , where  ? Nn (0, In ). This produces the data (Y , X). We repeatedly generate n data according to the four distributions discussed above for 1,000 times. To show the estimation accuracy, Figure ? 1 and true regression coefficient ? 2 plots the empirical mean square error between the estimate u ? 1 k0 ), for PCR and RPCR, under against the numbers of estimated nonzero entries (defined as ku different schemes of (n, d), ? and different distributions. Here we considered n = 100 and d = 200. It can be seen that we do not plot the results of lasso in Figure 2. As discussed in Section 2, especially as shown in Figure 1, linear regression and principal component regression have their own advantages in different settings. More specifically, we do not plot the results of lasso here simply because it performs so bad under our simulation settings. For example, under the Gaussian settings with n = 100 and d = 200, the lowest mean square error for lasso is 0.53 and the errors are averagely above 1.5, while for RPCR is 0.13 and is averagely below 1. Figure 2 shows when the data are non-Gaussian but follow an elliptically distribution, RPCR outperforms PCR constantly in terms of estimation accuracy. Moreover, when the data are indeed normally distributed, there is no obvious difference between RPCR and PCR, indicating that RPCR is a safe alternative to the classical sparse principal component regression. 7 0.45 ? 0.40 0.35 0.30 averaged prediction error 0.15 2 0 0.10 Sample Quantiles ?2 ? ? ?4 lasso PCR RPCR 0.25 ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? 0.20 4 ? ? ?6 ? ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 0 3 50 100 150 number of selected features Theoretical Quantiles A B Figure 3: (A) Quantile vs. quantile plot of the log-return values for one stock ?Goldman Sachs?. (B) Prediction error against the number of features selected. The scale of the prediction errors is enlarged by 100 times for better visualization. 4.2 Application to Equity Data In this section we apply the proposed robust sparse principal component regression and the other two methods to the stock price data from Yahoo! Finance (finance.yahoo.com). We collect the daily closing prices for 452 stocks that are consistently in the S&P 500 index between January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2008. This gives us altogether T=1,257 data points, each data point corresponds to the vector of closing prices on a trading day. Let St = [Stt,j ] denote by the closing price of stock j on day t. We are interested in the log return data X = [Xtj ] with Xtj = log(Stt,j /Stt?1,j ). We first show that this data set is non-Gaussian and heavy tailed. This is done first by conducting marginal normality tests (Kolmogorove-Smirnov, Shapiro-Wilk, and Lillifors) on the data. We find that at most 24 out of 452 stocks would pass any of three normality test. With Bonferroni correction there are still over half stocks that fail to pass any normality tests. Moreover, to illustrate the heavy tailed issue, we plot the quantile vs. quantile plot for one stock, ?Goldman Sachs?, in Figure 3(A). It can be observed that the log return values for this stock is heavy tailed compared to the Gaussian. To illustrate the power of the proposed method, we pick a subset of the data first. The stocks can be summarized into 10 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors and we are focusing on the subcategory ?Financial?. This leave us 74 stocks and we denote the resulting data to be F ? R1257?74 . We are interested in predicting the log return value in day t for each stock indexed by k (i.e., treating Ft,k as the response) using the log return values for all the stocks in day t ? 1 to day t ? 7 (i.e., treating vec(Ft?7?t0 ?t?1,? ) as the predictor). The dimension for the regressor is accordingly 7 ? 74 = 518. For each stock indexed by k, to learn the regression coefficient ?k , we use Ft0 ?{1,...,1256},? as the training data and applying the three different methods on this dataset. For each method, after obtaining an estimator ?bk , we use vec(Ft0 ?{1250,...,1256},? )?b to estimate F1257,k . This procedure is repeated for each k and the averaged prediction errors are plotted against the b 0 ) in Figure 3(B). To visualize the difference more clearly, in number of features selected (i.e., k?k the figures we enlarge the scale of the prediction errors by 100 times. It can be observed that RPCR has the universally lowest prediction error with regard to different number of features. Acknowledgement Han?s research is supported by a Google fellowship. Liu is supported by NSF Grants III-1116730 and NSF III-1332109, an NIH sub-award and a FDA sub-award from Johns Hopkins University. 8 References Artemiou, A. and Li, B. (2009). 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Simulation of Optimal Movements Using the Minimum-Muscle-Tension-Change Model. Menashe Dornay* Yoji Uno" Mitsuo Kawato* Ryoji Suzuki** ?Cognitive Processes Department, ATR Auditory and Visual Perception Research Laboratories, Sanpeidani, Inuidani, Seika-Cho, Soraku-Gun, Kyoto 619-02 Japan. ??Department of Mathematical Engineering and Information Physics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tokyo, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113 Japan. Abstract This work discusses various optimization techniques which were proposed in models for controlling arm movements. In particular, the minimum-muscle-tension-change model is investigated. A dynamic simulator of the monkey's arm, including seventeen single and double joint muscles, is utilized to generate horizontal hand movements. The hand trajectories produced by this algorithm are discussed. 1 INTRODUCTION To perform a voluntary hand movement, the primate nervous system must solve the following problems: (A) Which trajectory (hand path and velocity) should be used while moving the hand from the initial to the desired position. (lB) What muscle forces should be generated. Those two problems are termed "ill-posed" because they can be solved in an infinite number of ways. The interesting question to us is: what strategy does the nervous system use while choosing a specific solution for these problems? The chosen solutions must comply with the known experimental data: Human and monkey's free horizontal multi-joint hand movements have straight or gently curved paths. The hand velocity profiles are always roughly bell shaped (Bizzi & Abend 1986). 627 628 Damay, Uno, Kawato, and Suzuki 1.1 THE MINIMUM-JERK MODEL Flash and Hogan (1985) proposed that a global kinematic optimization approach, the minimum-jerk model, defines a solution for the trajectory detennination problem (problem A). Using this strategy, the nervous system is choosing the (unique) smoothest trajectory of the hand for any horizontal movement, without having to deal with the structure or dynamics of the ann. The minimum-jerk model produces reasonable approximations for hand trajectories in unconstrained point to point movements in the horizontal plane in front of the body (Flash & Hogan 1985; Morasso 1981; Uno et al. 1989a). It fails to describe, however, some important experimental findings for human arm movements (Uno et al. 1989a). 1.2 THE EQUILIBRIUM-TRAJECTORY HYPOTHESIS According to the equilibrium-trajectory hypothesis (Feldman 1966), the nervous system generates movements by a gradual change in the equilibrium posture of the hand: at all times during the execution of a movement the muscle forces defines a stable posture which acts as a point of attraction in the configurational space of the limb. The actual hand movement is the realized trajectory. The realized hand trajectory is usually different from the attracting pre-planned virtual trajectory (Hogan 1984). Simulations by Flash (1987), have suggested that realistic multi-joint ann movements at moderate speed can be generated by moving the hand eqUilibrium position along a pre-planned minimum-jerk virtual trajectory. The interactions of the dynamic properties of the ann and the attracting virtual trajectory create together the actual realized trajectory. Flash did not suggest a solution to problem lB. A static local optimization algorithm related to the equilibrium-trajectory hypothesis and called backdriving was proposed by Mussa-Ivaldi et al. (1991). This algorithm can be used to solve problem lB only after the virtual trajectory is known. The virtual trajectory is not necessarily a minimum-jerk trajectory. Driving the arm from a current equilibrium position to the next one on the virtual trajectory is perfonned by two steps: 1) simulate a passive displacement of the arm to the new position and 2) update the muscle forces so as to eliminate the induced hand force. A unique active change (step 2) is chosen by finding these muscle forces which minimize the change in the potential energy stored in the muscles. Using a static model of the monkey's arm, the first author has analyzed this sequential computational approach, including a solution for both the trajectory detennination (A) and the muscle forces (lB) problems (Domay 1990, 1991a, 1991b). The equilibrium-trajectory hypothesis which is using the minimum-jerk model was criticized by Katayama and Kawato (in preparation). According to their recent findings, the values of the dynamic stiffness used by Flash (1987) are too high to be realistic. They have found that a very complex virtual trajectory, completely different from the one predicted by the minimum-jerk model, is needed for coding realistic hand movements. Simulation of Optimal Movements Using the Minimum-Muscle-Tension-Change Model 2 GLOBAL DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATIONS A set of global dynamic optimizations have been proposed by Uno et al. (1989a, 1989b). Uno et al. suggested that the dynamic properties of the arm must be considered by any algorithm for controlling hand movements. They also proposed that the hand trajectory and the motor commands (joint torques, muscle tensions, etc.,) are computed in parallel. 2.1 THE MINIMUM-TORQUE-CHANGE MODEL Uno et al. (1989a) have proposed the minimum-torque-change model. The model proposes that the hand trajectory and the joint torques are determined simultaneously, while the algorithm minimizes globally the rate of change of the joint torques. The minimum-torquechange model was criticized by Flash (1990), saying that the rotary inertia used was not realistic. If Flash's inertia values are used then the hand path predicted by the minimumtorque-change model is curved (Flash 1990). 2.2 THE MINIMUM-MUSCLE-TENSION-CHANGE MODEL The minimum-muscle-tension-change model (Uno et al. 1989b, Domay et al. 1991) is a parallel dynamic optimization approach in which the trajectory determination problem (A) and the muscle force generation problem (]B) are solved simultaneously. No explicit trajectory is imposed on the hand, but that it must reach the final desired state (position, velocity, etc.) in a pre-specified time. The numerical solution used is a "penalty" method, in which the controller minimizes globally by iterations an energy function E : (1) E is the energy that must be minimized in iterations. ED is a collection of hard constraints, like, for example that the hand must reach the desired position at the specified time. Es is a smoothness constraint, like the minimum-muscle-tension-change model. "is a regularization function, that needs to become smaller and smaller as the number of iterations increases. This is a key point because the hard constraints must be strictly satisfied at the end of the iterative process. ? is a small rate term. The smoothness constraint Es ' is the minimum-muscle-tension-change model, defined as: (2) !; is the tension of muscle i, n is the total number of muscles, to is the initial time and trut is the final time of the movement. Preliminary studies have shown (Uno et al. 1989b) that the minimum-muscle-tensionchange model can simulate reasonable hand movements. 629 630 Damay, Uno, Kawato, and Suzuki 3 THE MONKEY'S ARM MODEL The model used was recently described (Domay 1991a; Domay et al. 1991). It is based on anatomical study using the Rhesus monkey. Attachments of 17 shoulder. elbow and double joint muscles were marked on the skeleton. The skeleton was cleaned and reassembled to a natural configuration of a monkey during horizontal arm movements (Fig. 1). X-ray analysis was used to create a simplified horizontal model of the arm (Fig. 1). Effective origins and insertions of the muscles were estimated by computer simulations to ensure the postural stability ofthe hand at equilibrium (Domay 1991a). The simplified dynamic model used in this study is described in Domay et al. (1991). Figure 1: The Monkey's Arm Model. Top left is a ventral view of the skeleton. Middle right is a dorsal view. The bottom shows a top-down X-ray projection of the skeleton. with the axes marked on it. The photos were taken by Mr. H.S. Hall. MIT. Simulation of Optimal Movements Using the Minimum-Muscle-Tension-Change Model 4 THE BEHAVIORAL TASK We tried to simulate the horizontal arm movements reported by Uno et al. (1989a) for human subjects, using the monkey's model. Fig. 2 (left) shows a top view of the hand workspace of the monkey (light small dots). We used 7 hand positions defined by the following shoulder and elbow relative angles (in degrees): Tl (14,122); T z {67,100}; T3 {75,64}; T4 {63,45}; Ts {35,54}; T6 {-5,lOl} and T7 {-25,45}. The joint angles used by Uno et al. (1989a) for T4 and T7, {77.22} and {O,O}, are out of the workspace of the monkey's hand (open circles in Fig 2. left). We approximated them by our T4 and T7 (filled circles). The behavioral task that we simulated using the minimum-muscle-tensionchange model consisted of the 4 trajectories shown in Fig. 2 (right). 5 SIMULATION RESULTS Figure 2 (right) shows the paths (T z->T6 ), (T3->T6), (T4->T1), and (T7->Ts)' The paths T2>T6' T 3->T6 and T7->Ts are slightly convex. Slightly convex paths for T z->T6 were reported in human movements by Flash (1987), Uno et al. (l989a) and Morasso (1981). Human T3->T6 paths have a small tendency to be slightly convex (Uno et al. 1989a; Flash (1987). In our simulations, T z->T6 and T3->T6 have slightly larger curvatures than those reported in humans. Human large movements from the side of the body to the front of the body similar to our T7->Ts were reported by Uno et al. (1989a). The path of these movements is convex and similar to our simulation results. The simulated path of T4->T 1 is slightly curved to the left and then to the right, but roughly straight. The human's T4>TI paths look slightly straighter than in our simulations (Uno et at. 1989a; Flash 1987). 0.( ,.--..... if) ~ 0:3 (l) ~ (l) 0.2 E '-' T4 T3 -..:....... ___ , T5 ...... "-.... ~ .......... :::.:::.. .... T1 T6 \" {.;#:!.. X \\T7 + 0 .0 -01 ! -C.2 -O.2m '. o. i >-' -O.38m ? -01 0.0 0.1 0.2 03 04 X (meters) Figure 2. The Behavioral Task. The left side shows the hand workspace (small dots). The shoulder position and origin of coordinates (0,0) is marked by +. The elbow location when the hand is on position TI is marked by E. The right side shows 4 hand paths simulated by the minimum-musc1e-tension-change model. Arrows indicate the directions of the movements. 631 632 Domay, Uno, Kawato, and Suzuki Fig. 3 shows the corresponding simulated hand velocities. The velocity profiles have a single peak and are roughly bell shaped, like those reported for human subjects. The left side of the velocity profile of T 4->T t looks slightly irregular. The hand trajectories simulated here are in general closer to human data than those reported by us in the past (Domay et al. 1991). In the current study we used a much slower protocol for reducing A than in the previous study, and we think that we are closer now to the optimal solution of the numerical calculation than in the previous study. Indeed, the hand velocity profiles and muscle tension profiles look smoother here than in the previous study. It is in general very difficult to guarantee that the optimal solution is achieved, unless an unpractical large number of iterations is used. Fig. 4 (top,left) shows the way ED and Es of equation 1 are changing as a function A for the trajectory T7 ->T5 ? Ideally. both should reach a plato when the optimal solution is reached. The muscle tensions simulated for T1->T5 are shown in Fig. 4. They look quite smooth . f ..'/"".-. ..: :;:- ?1:: j ~ : ? J .... o ./' ?? 02 " .t /".. ?? .. II ?? ~ :/ ./ e. " . II .. T . 4 .. . ' ., .? T . .T I. 11 7O+:1j5 . ?? t. - () ---'--'-'--,Tlme(.' 00 /~"" ..... ..-, .:. . ... G' .,,/ \ ... ?? e.. ... ~ I ! a. ?? .? , , , Figure 3. The Hand Tangential VelocIty. 6 DISCUSSION Various control strategies have been proposed to explain the roughly straight hand trajectory shown by primates in planar reaching movements. The minimum-jerk model (Flash & Hogan 1985) takes into account only the desired hand movement. and completely ignores the dynamic properties of the arm. This simplified approach is a good approximation for many movements, but cannot explain some experimental evidence (Uno et al. 1989a). A more demanding approach, the minimum-torque-change model (Uno et al. 1989a), takes into account the dynamics of the arm, but emphasizes only the torques at the joints, and completely ignores the properties of the muscles. This model was criticized to produce unrealistic hand trajectories when proper inertia values are used (Flash 1990). A third and more complicated model is the minimum-muscle-tension-change model (Uno et a1. 1989b. Domay et al. 1991). The minimum-muscle-tension-change model was shown here to produce gently curved hand movements, which although not identical, are quite close to the primate behavior. In the current study the initial and final tensions of the muscles were assumed to be zero. This is not a realistic assumption since even a static hand at an equilibrium is expected to have some stiffness. Using the minimummuscle-tension-change model with non-zero initial and final muscle tensions is a logical Simulation of Optimal Movements Using the Minimum-Muscle-Tension-Change Model Muscle Forces N /,I:~.. ~? OJ 0I ? '! Se4 Se3 1 ' Se2 Sel ?? ?? ?? ? ~ _-,-._ __ ? II ? , ?? ?? eI ?t SfG Se5 SfB . ~. , '- 'I II , 0 Ie I. II II I' ?? .1 ?? EelO II I' I' I' ? It .." ? '1 'I : II.. ,. II Eel! J ., I. II II I' ' . lOOt Ef14 Ef13 Df16 II ?? II ... I' II II 'I De15 ?? .1 J' II IJ ,. II I' II Df17 ,./"\ .r--.. '-- o I. II .. Ef12 II II ~\ : 01 0& Sf9 '-:-:--~-:---:'7-~ ?? II II \ , II I. I' ./\\ \ ~\.. I' IJ Sf7 .... II ~- ../ \ ..: .1 II ,. 1 Time(s) Figure 4. Numerical Analysis and Muscle Tensions For T 7->Ts. S=shoulder, E=elbow, D=double-joint muscle, e=extensor, f=flexor. study which we intend to test in the near future. Still, the minimum-muscle-tension-change model considers only the muscle moment-arms (Il) and momvels (olll ae) and ignores the muscle length-tension curves. A more complicated model which we are studying now is the minimum-motor-command-change model, which includes the length-tension curves. 633 634 Domay, Uno, Kawato. and Suzuki Acknowledgements M. Domay and M. Kawato would like to thank Drs. K. Nakane and E. Yodogawa, ATR, for their valuable help and support. Preparation of the paper was supported by Human Frontier Science Program grant to M. Kawato. References 1 E Bizzi & WK Abend (1986) Control of multijoint movements. In MJ. Cohen and F. Strumwasser (Eds.) Comparative Neurobiology: Modes of Communication in the Nervous System, John Wiley & Sons, pp. 255-277 2 M Dornay (1990) Control of movement and the postural stability of the monkey's arm. Proc. 3rd International Symposium on Bioelectronic and Molecular Electronic Devices, Kobe, Japan, December 18-20, pp. 101-102 3 M Domay (1991 a) Static analysis of posture and movement, using a 17 -muscle model of the monkey's arm. ATR Technical Report TR-A-0109 4 M Domay (1991b) Control of movement, postural stability, and muscle angular stiffness. Proc. IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Virginia, USA, pp. 1373-1379 5 M Dornay, Y Uno, M Kawato & R Suzuki (1991) Simulation of optimal movements using a 17-muscle model of the monkey's arm. Proc. SICE 30th Annual Conference, ES-1-4, July 17-19, Yonezawam Japan, pp. 919-922 6 AG Feldman (1966) Functional tuning of the nervous system with control of movement or maintenance of a steady posture. Biophysics, li, pp. 766-775 7 T Flash & N Hogan (1985) The coordination of arm movements: an experimentally confIrmed mathematical model. J. Neurosci., 2,., pp. 1688-1703 8 T Flash (1987) The control of hand equilibrium trajectories in multi-joint arm movements. Biol. Cybern., 57, pp. 257-274 9 T Flash (1990) The organization of human arm trajectory control. In J. Winters and S. Woo (Eds.) Multiple muscle systems: Biomechanics and movement organization, Springer-Verlag, pp. 282-301 ION Hogan (1984) An organizing principle for a class of voluntary movements. J. Neurosci., i, pp. 2745-2754 11 P Morasso (1981) Spatial control of arm movements. Experimental Brain Research, 42, pp. 223-227 12 FA Mussa-Ivaldi, P Morasso, N Hogan & E Bizzi (1991) Network models of motor systems with many degrees of freedom. In M.D. Fraser (Ed.) Advances in control networks and large scale parallel distributed processing models, Albex Publ. Corp. 13 Y Uno, M Kawato & R Suzuki (1989a) Formation and control of optimal trajectory in human multijoint arm movement - minimum-torque-change model. Biol. Cybern., g, pp. 89-101 14 Y Uno, R Suzuki & M Kawato (1989b) Minimum muscle-tension change model which reproduces human arm movement. Proceedings of the 4th Symposium on Biological and Physiological Engineering, pp. 299-302, (in Japanese) PART X ApPLICATIONS
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Structured Learning via Logistic Regression Justin Domke NICTA and The Australian National University [email protected] Abstract A successful approach to structured learning is to write the learning objective as a joint function of linear parameters and inference messages, and iterate between updates to each. This paper observes that if the inference problem is ?smoothed? through the addition of entropy terms, for fixed messages, the learning objective reduces to a traditional (non-structured) logistic regression problem with respect to parameters. In these logistic regression problems, each training example has a bias term determined by the current set of messages. Based on this insight, the structured energy function can be extended from linear factors to any function class where an ?oracle? exists to minimize a logistic loss. 1 Introduction The structured learning problem is to find a function F (x, y) to map from inputs x to outputs as y ? = arg maxy F (x, y). F is chosen to optimize a loss function defined on these outputs. A major challenge is that evaluating the loss for a given function F requires solving the inference optimization to find the highest-scoring output y for each exemplar, which is NP-hard in general. A standard solution to this is to write the loss function using an LP-relaxation of the inference problem, meaning an upper-bound on the true loss. The learning problem can then be phrased as a joint optimization of parameters and inference variables, which can be solved, e.g., by alternating message-passing updates to inference variables with gradient descent updates to parameters [16, 9]. T Previous work has mostly focused on linear energy functions ! F (x, y) = w ?(x, y), where a vector of weights w is adjusted in learning, and ?(x, y) = ? ?(x, y? ) decomposes over subsets of variables y? . While linear weights are often useful in practice [23, 16, 9, 3, 17, 12, 5], it is also common to make use of non-linear classifiers. This is typically done by training a classifier (e.g. ensembles of trees [20, 8, 25, 13, 24, 18, 19] or multi-layer perceptrons [10, 21]) to predict each variable independently. Linear edge interaction weights are then learned, with unary classifiers either held fixed [20, 8, 25, 13, 24, 10] or used essentially as ?features? with linear weights readjusted [18]. ! This paper allows the more general form F (x, y) = ? f? (x, y? ). The learning problem is to select f? from some set of functions F? . Here, following previous work [15], we add entropy smoothing to the LP-relaxation of the inference problem. Again, this leads to phrasing the learning problem as a joint optimization of learning and inference variables, alternating between message-passing updates to inference variables and optimization of the functions f? . The major result is that minimization of the loss over f? ? F? can be re-formulated as a logistic regression problem, with a ?bias? vector added to each example reflecting the current messages incoming to factor ?. No assumptions are needed on the sets of functions F? , beyond assuming that an algorithm exists to optimize the logistic loss on a given dataset over all f? ? F? We experimentally test the results of varying F? to be the set of linear functions, multi-layer perceptrons, or boosted decision trees. Results verify the benefits of training flexible function classes in terms of joint prediction accuracy. 1 2 Structured Prediction The structured prediction problem can be written as seeking a function h that will predict an output y from an input x. Most commonly, it can be written in the form h(x; w) = arg max wT ?(x, y), (1) y where ? is a fixed function of both x and y. The maximum takes place over all configurations of the discrete vector y. It is further assumed that ? decomposes into a sum of functions evaluated over subsets of variables y? as ! ?(x, y) = ?? (x, y? ). ? The learning problem is to adjust set of linear weights w. This paper considers the structured learning problem in a more general setting, directly handling nonlinear function classes. We generalize the function h to h(x; F ) = arg max F (x, y), y where the energy F again decomposes as F (x, y) = ! f? (x, y? ). ? The learning problem now becomes to select {f? ? F? } for some set of functions F? . This reduces to the previous case when f? (x, y? ) = wT ?? (x, y? ) is a linear function. Here, we do not make any assumption on the class of functions F? other than assuming that there exists an algorithm to find the best function f? ? F? in terms of the logistic regression loss (Section 6). 3 Loss Functions Given a dataset (x1 , y 1 ), ..., (xN , y N ), we wish to select the energy F to minimize the empirical risk ! R(F ) = l(xk , y k ; F ), (2) k for some loss function l. Absent computational concerns, a standard choice would be the slackrescaled loss [22] l0 (xk , y k ; F ) = max F (xk , y) ? F (xk , y k ) + ?(y k , y), (3) y where ?(y k , y) is some measure " of discrepancy. We assume that ? is a function that decomposes over ?, (i.e. that ?(y k , y) = ? ?? (y?k , y ? )). Our experiments use the Hamming distance. In Eq. 3, the maximum ranges over all possible discrete labelings y, which is in NP-hard in general. If this inference problem must be solved approximately, there is strong motivation [6] for using relaxations of the maximization in Eq. 1, since this yields an upper-bound on the loss. A common solution [16, 14, 6] is to use a linear relaxation1 l1 (xk , y k ; F ) = max F (xk , ?) ? F (xk , y k ) + ?(y k , ?), (4) ??M where the local polytope M is defined as the set of local pseudomarginals that are normalized, and agree when marginalized over other neighboring regions, ! M = {?|??? (y? ) = ?? (y? ) ?? ? ?, ?? (y? ) = 1 ??, ?? (y? ) ? 1 ??, y? }. y? Here, ??? (y? ) = y?\? ?? (y? ) is ?? marginalized out over some region ? contained in ?. It is easy to show that l1 ? l0 , since the two would be equivalent if ? were restricted to binary values, and hence the maximization in l1 takes place over a larger set [6]. We also define " ?Fk (y? ) = f? (xk , y? ) + ?? (y?k , y ? ), 1 (5) k F and ? are slightly generalized to allow arguments of pseudomarginals, as F (x , ?) = ! Here, ! ! ! k k k f (x , y )?(y ) and ?(y , ?) = ? ? ? y? ? y ? ?? (y? , y ? )?(y? ). 2 which gives the equivalent representation of l1 as l1 (xk , y k ; F ) = ?F (xk , y k ) + max??M ?Fk ? ?. The maximization in l1 is of a linear objective under linear constraints, and is thus a linear program (LP), solvable in polynomial time using a generic LP solver. In practice, however, it is preferable to use custom solvers based on message-passing that exploit the sparsity of the problem. Here, we make a further approximation to the loss, replacing the inference problem of max??M ? ?? ! with the ?smoothed? problem max??M ? ? ? + " ? H(?? ), where H(?? ) is the entropy of the marginals ?? . This approximation has been considered by Meshi et al. [15] who show that local message-passing can have a guaranteed convergence rate, and by Hazan and Urtasun [9] who use it for learning. The relaxed loss is " $ # l(xk , y k ; F ) = ?F (xk , y k ) + max ?Fk ? ? + " H(?? ) . (6) ??M ? Since the entropy is positive, this is clearly a further upper-bound on the ?unsmoothed? loss, i.e. l1 ? l. Moreover, we can bound the looseness of this approximation as in the following theorem, proved in the appendix. A similar result was previously given [15] bounding the difference of the objective obtained by inference with and without entropy smoothing. Theorem 1. l and l1 are bounded by (where |y? | is the number of configurations of y? ) l1 (x, y, F ) ? l(x, y, F ) ? l1 (x, y, F ) + "Hmax , Hmax = # log |y? |. ? 4 Overview Now, the learning problem is to select the functions f? composing F to minimize R as defined in Eq. 2. The major challenge is that evaluating R(F ) requires performing inference. Specifically, if we define # A(?) = max ? ? ? + " H(?? ), (7) ??M ? then we have that min R(F ) = min F F #% & ?F (xk , y k ) + A(?Fk ) . k Since A(?) contains a maximization, this is a saddle-point problem. Inspired by previous work [16, 9], our solution (Section 5) is to introduce a vector of ?messages? ? to write A in the dual form A(?) = min A(?, ?), ? which leads to phrasing learning as the joint minimization #' ( min min ?F (xk , y k ) + A(?k , ?Fk ) . F {?k } k We propose to solve this through an alternating optimization of F and {?k }. For fixed F , messagepassing can be used to perform coordinate ascent updates to all the messages ?k (Section 5). These updates are trivially parallelized with respect to k. However, the problem remains, for fixed messages, how to optimize the functions f? composing F . Section 7 observes that this problem can be re-formulated into a (non-structured) logistic regression problem, with ?bias? terms added to each example that reflect the current messages into factor ?. 5 Inference In order to evaluate the loss, it is necessary to solve the maximization in Eq. 6. For a given ?, consider doing inference over ?, that is, in solving the maximization in Eq. 7. Standard Lagrangian duality theory gives the following dual representation for A(?) in terms of ?messages? ?? (x? ) from a region ? to a subregion ? ? ?, a variant of the representation of Heskes [11]. 3 Algorithm 1 Reducing structured learning to logistic regression. For all k, ?, initialize ?k (y? ) ? 0. Repeat until convergence: 1. For all k, for all ?, set the bias term to ? ? # # 1 bk? (y ? ) ? ??(y?k , y ? ) + ?k? (y? ) ? ?k? (y? )? . # ??? ??? 2. For all ?, solve the logistic regression problem & ) K ' ( ' ( # # k k k k k k f? ? arg max f? (x , y? ) + b? (y? ) ? log exp f? (x , y? ) + b? (y? ) . f? ?F? y? k=1 3. For all k, for all ?, form updated parameters as ?k (y? ) ? #f? (xk , y? ) + ?(y?k , y ? ). 4. For all k, perform a fixed number of message-passing iterations to update ?k using ?k . (Eq. 10) Theorem 2. A(?) can be represented in the dual form A(?) = min? A(?, ?), where # ### A(?, ?) = max ? ? ? + # H(?? ) + ?? (x? ) (??? (y? ) ? ?? (y? )) , ??N ? (8) ? ??? x? * and N = {?| y? ?? (y? ) = 1, ?? (y? ) ? 0} is the set of locally normalized pseudomarginals. Moreover, for a fixed ?, the maximizing ? is given by ? ? ?? # # 1 1 ?? (y? ) = exp ? ??(y? ) + ?? (y? ) ? ?? (y? )?? , (9) Z? # ??? ??? where Z? is a normalizing constant to ensure that * y? ?? (y? ) = 1. Thus, for any set of messages ?, there is an easily-evaluated upper-bound A(?, ?) ? A(?), and when A(?, ?) is minimized with respect to ?, this bound is tight. The standard approach to performing the minimization over ? is essentially block-coordinate descent. There are variants, depending on the size of the ?block? that is updated. In our experiments, we use blocks consisting of the set of all messages ?? (y? ) for all regions ? containing ?. When the graph only contains regions for single variables and pairs, this is a ?star update? of all the messages from pairs that contain a variable i. It can be shown [11, 15] that the update is ?$? (y? ) ? ?? (y? ) + # # (log ?? (y? ) + log ??! (y? )) ? # log ?? (y? ), 1 + N? ! (10) ? ?? for all ? ? ?, where N? = |{?|? ? ?}|. Meshi et al. [15] show that with greedy or randomized selection of blocks to update, O( ?1 ) iterations are sufficient to converge within error ?. 6 Logistic Regression Logistic regression is traditionally understood as defining a conditional distribution p(y|x; W ) = exp ((W x)y ) /Z(x) where W is a matrix that maps the input features x to a vector of margins W* x. It is easy to show that the maximum conditional likelihood training problem maxW k log p(y k |xk ; W ) is equivalent to ) & # # k k max (W x )yk ? log exp(W x )y . W y k 4 Here, we generalize this in two ways. First, rather than taking the mapping from features x to the margin for label y as the y-th component of W x, we take it as f (x, y) for some function f in a set of function F . (This reduces to the linear case when f (x, y) = (W x)y .) Secondly, we assume that there is a pre-determined ?bias? vector bk associated with each training example. This yields the learning problem " % ! # ! $ # $ k k k k k k max f (x , y ) + b (y ) ? log (11) exp f (x , y) + b (y) , f ?F y k Aside from linear logistic regression, one can see decision trees, multi-layer perceptrons, and boosted ensembles under an appropriate loss as solving Eq. 11 for different sets of functions F (albeit possibly to a local maximum). 7 Training Recall that the& learning problem is to select the functions f? ? F? so as to minimize the empirical risk R(F ) = k [?F (xk , y k ) + A(?Fk )]. At first blush, this appears challenging, since evaluating A(?) requires solving a message-passing optimization. However, we can use the dual representation of A from Theorem 2 to represent minF R(F ) in the form !' ( min min ?F (xk , y k ) + A(?k , ?Fk ) . (12) F {?k } k To optimize Eq. 12, we alternating between optimization of messages {?k } and energy functions {f? }. Optimization with respect to ?k for fixed F decomposes into minimizing A(?k , ?Fk ) independently for each y k , which can be done by running message-passing updates as in Section 5 using the parameter vector ?Fk . Thus, the rest of this section is concerned with how to optimize with respect to F for fixed messages. Below, we will use a slight generalization of a standard result [1, p. 93]. Lemma 3. The conjugate of the entropy is the ?log-sum-exp? function. Formally, ! ! ?i xi log xi = ? log exp . max ? ? x ? ? T ? x:x 1=1,x?0 i i Theorem 4. If f?? is the minimizer of Eq 12 for fixed messages ?, then " % ! # ! $ # $ ? k k k k k k f? = $ arg max f? (x , y? ) + b? (y? ) ? log exp f? (x , y? ) + b? (y? ) , (13) where the set of biases are defined as ? ? ! ! 1 ?? (y? ) ? ?? (y? )? . bk? (y ? ) = ??(y?k , y ? ) + $ ??? (14) f? y? k ??? Proof. Substituting A(?, ?) from Eq. 8 and ?k from Eq. 5 gives that A(?k , ?Fk ) = max ??N !!# ! $ f? (xk , y? ) + ?? (y?k , y ? ) ?(y? ) + $ H(?? ) ? y? ? + !!! ?k? (x? ) (??? (y? ) ? ?? (y? )) . ? ??? x? Using the definition of bk from Eq. 14 above, this simplifies into . ! ! k k (f? (x, y? ) + $b? (y? )) ?? (y? ) + $H(?? ) , A(? , ?F ) = max ? ?? ?N? y? 5 Fi \ Fij Zero Const. Linear Boost. MLP Denoising Zero Const. Linear Boost. MLP .502 .502 .502 .511 .502 .502 .502 .502 .510 .502 .444 .077 .059 .049 .034 .444 .034 .015 .009 .007 .445 .032 .015 .009 .008 Fi \ Fij Zero Const. Linear Boost. MLP Horses Zero Const. Linear Boost. MLP .246 .246 .247 .244 .245 .246 .246 .247 .244 .245 .185 .185 .168 .154 .156 .103 .098 .092 .084 .086 .096 .094 .087 .080 .081 Table 1: Univariate Test Error Rates (Train Errors in Appendix) ! where N? = {?? | y? ?? (y? ) = 1, ?? (y? ) ? 0} enforces that ?? is a locally normalized set of marginals. Applying Lemma 3 to the inner maximization gives the closed-form expression k A(? , ?Fk ) = " ? # log " exp y? # $ 1 f? (x, y? ) + b? (y? ) . # Thus, minimizing Eq. 12 with respect to F is equivalent to finding (for all ?) % $& # " " 1 k k k f? (x, y? ) + b? (y? ) arg max f? (x , y? ) ? # log exp f? # y? k % # $& " " 1 1 k k k k exp f? (x , y? ) ? log f (x , y? ) + b? (y? ) = arg max f? # # y k ? Observing that adding a bias term doesn?t change the maximizing f? , and using the fact that arg max g( 1" ?) = # arg max g(?) gives the result. The final learning algorithm is summarized as Alg. 1. Sometimes, the local classifier f? will depend on the input x only through some ?local features? ?? . The above framework accomodates this situation if the set F? is considered to select these local features. In practice, one will often wish to constrain that some of the functions f? are the same. This is done by taking the sum in Eq. 13 not just over all data k, but also over all factors ? that should be so constrained. For example, it is common to model ! image segmentation problems using a 4-connected grid with an energy like F (x, y) = i u(?i , yi ) + ! v(? , y , y ), where ? /? are univariate/pairwise features determined by x, and u and v ij i j i ij ij are functions mapping local features to local energies. In this case, u would be selected to max) ( )* ! ! '( ! imize k i u(?ki , yik ) + bki (yik ) ? log yi exp u(?ki , yi ) + bki (yi ) , and analogous expression exists for v. This is the framework used in the following experiments. 8 Experiments These experiments consider three different function classes: linear, boosted decision trees, and multi-layer perceptrons. To maximize Eq. 11 under linear functions f (x, y) = (W x)y , we simply compute the gradient with respect to W and use batch L-BFGS. For a multi-layer perceptron, we fit the function f (x, y) = (W ?(U x))y using stochastic gradient descent with momentum2 on mini-batches of size 1000, using a step size of .25 for univariate classifiers and .05 for pairwise. Boosted decision trees use stochastic gradient boosting [7]: the gradient of the logistic loss is computed for each exemplar, and a regression tree is induced to fit this (one tree for each class). To control overfitting, each leaf node must contain at least 5% of the data. Then, an optimization adjusts the values of leaf nodes to optimize the logistic loss. Finally, the tree values are multiplied by 2 At each time, the new step is a combination of .1 times the new gradient plus .9 times the old step. 6 400 400 yi=1 y =2 0.4 ?i 0.6 100 0.8 ?400 0 1 ?200 0.2 0.4 ?i 0.6 0.8 100 y =(1,1) 0.8 ij yij=(2,1) yij=(2,2) 0 ij 0 ?100 0 1 1 y =(1,1) 50 yij=(2,1) f ij f 0.6 0.8 ij ?50 ?ij 0.6 yij=(2,2) ?50 0.4 ?i y =(1,2) ij 50 0 0.2 0.4 ij yij=(2,1) ?100 0 0.2 100 y =(1,2) ij yij=(2,2) fij ?400 0 1 y =(1,1) ij y =(1,2) 50 0 i 0 ?200 0.2 i 200 f i f fi ?200 y =2 i 200 0 ?400 0 yi=1 y =2 i 200 400 yi=1 ?50 0.2 Linear 0.4 ?ij 0.6 0.8 1 ?100 0 0.2 Boosting 0.4 ?ij 0.6 0.8 1 MLP Figure 1: The univariate (top) and pairwise (bottom) energy functions learned on denoising data. Each column shows the result of training both univariate and pairwise terms with one function class. Denoising Linear Boosting MLP Fi \ Fij 0.1 0.1 0.1 20 40 Iteration 0 20 40 Iteration 0 0.1 0 0 20 40 Iteration MLP MLP 0 0.2 Error 0 0.2 Boosting 0.1 Error 0 0.2 Boosting Error MLP Fi \ Fij Linear Error 0.1 0 0.2 Error Boosting 0.2 Linear Error 0.2 0 0 Horses Linear 10 20 Iteration 0 10 20 Iteration 0 10 20 Iteration Figure 2: Dashed/Solid lines show univariate train/test error rates as a function of learning iterations for varying univariate (rows) and pairwise (columns) classifiers. Input True Denoising Linear Boosting MLP Input True Horses Linear Boosting MLP Figure 3: Example Predictions on Test Images (More in Appendix) 7 .25 and added to the ensemble. For reference, we also consider the ?zero? classifier, and a ?constant? classifier that ignores the input? equivalent to a linear classifier with a single constant feature. All examples use ! = 0.1. Each learning iteration consists of updating fi , performing 25 iterations of message passing, updating fij , and then performing another 25 iterations of message-passing. The first dataset is a synthetic binary denoising dataset, intended for the purpose of visualization. To create an example, an image is generated with each pixel random in [0, 1]. To generate y, this image is convolved with a Gaussian with standard deviation 10 and rounded to {0, 1}. Next, if yi = 0, ?ki is sampled uniformly from [0, .9], while if yik = 1, ?ki is sampled from [.1, 1]. Finally, for a pair (i, j), if yik = yjk , then ?kij is sampled from [0, .8] while if yik != yjk ?ij is sampled from [.2, 1]. A constant feature is also added to both ?ki and ?kij . There are 16 100 ? 100 images each training and testing. Test errors for each classifier combination are in Table 1, learning curves are in Fig. 2, and example results in Fig. 3. The nonlinear classifiers result in both lower asymptotic training and testing errors and faster convergence rates. Boosting converges particularly quickly. Finally, because there is only a single input feature for univariate and pairwise terms, the resulting functions are plotted in Fig. 1. Second, as a more realistic example, we use the Weizmann horses dataset. We use 42 univariate features fik consisting of a constant (1) the RBG values of the pixel (3), the vertical and horizontal position (2) and a histogram of gradients [2] (36). There are three edge features, consisting of a constant, the l2 distance of the RBG vectors for the two pixels, and the output of a Sobel edge filter. Results are show in Table 1 and Figures 2 and 3. Again, we see benefits in using nonlinear classifiers, both in convergence rate and asymptotic error. 9 Discussion This paper observes that in the structured learning setting, the optimization with respect to energy can be formulated as a logistic regression problem for each factor, ?biased? by the current messages. Thus, it is possible to use any function class where an ?oracle? exists to optimize a logistic loss. Besides the possibility of using more general classes of energies, another advantage of the proposed method is the ?software engineering? benefit of having the algorithm for fitting the energy modularized from the rest of the learning procedure. The ability to easily define new energy functions for individual problems could have practical impact. Future work could consider convergence rates of the overall learning optimization, systematically investigate the choice of !, or consider more general entropy approximations, such as the Bethe approximation used with loopy belief propagation. In related work, Hazan and Urtasun [9] use a linear energy, and alternate between updating all inference variables and a gradient descent update to parameters, using an entropy-smoothed inference objective. Meshi et al. [16] also use a linear energy, with a stochastic algorithm updating inference variables and taking a stochastic gradient step on parameters for one exemplar at a time, with a pure LP-relaxation of inference. The proposed method iterates between updating all inference variables and performing a full optimization of the energy. This is a ?batch? algorithm in the sense of making repeated passes over the data, and so is expected to be slower than an online method for large datasets. In practice, however, inference is easily parallelized over the data, and the majority of computational time is spent in the logistic regression subproblems. A stochastic solver can easily be used for these, as was done for MLPs above, giving a partially stochastic learning method. Another related work is Gradient Tree Boosting [4] in which to train a CRF, the functional gradient of the conditional likelihood is computed, and a regression tree is induced. This is iterated to produce an ensemble. The main limitation is the assumption that inference can be solved exactly. It appears possible to extend this to inexact inference, where the tree is induced to improve a dual bound, but this has not been done so far. Experimentally, however, simply inducing a tree on the loss gradient leads to much slower learning if the leaf nodes are not modified to optimize the logistic loss. Thus, it is likely that such a strategy would still benefit from using the logistic regression reformulation. 8 References [1] Stephen Boyd and Lieven Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [2] N. Dalal and B. Triggs. Histograms of oriented gradients for human detection. In CVPR, 2005. [3] Chaitanya Desai, Deva Ramanan, and Charless C. Fowlkes. Discriminative models for multi-class object layout. International Journal of Computer Vision, 95(1):1?12, 2011. [4] Thomas G. Dietterich, Adam Ashenfelter, and Yaroslav Bulatov. Training conditional random fields via gradient tree boosting. In ICML, 2004. [5] Justin Domke. Learning graphical model parameters with approximate marginal inference. PAMI, 35(10):2454?2467, 2013. [6] Thomas Finley and Thorsten Joachims. Training structural svms when exact inference is intractable. In ICML, 2008. [7] Jerome H. Friedman. Stochastic gradient boosting. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 38:367? 378, 1999. [8] Stephen Gould, Jim Rodgers, David Cohen, Gal Elidan, and Daphne Koller. Multi-class segmentation with relative location prior. IJCV, 80(3):300?316, 2008. [9] Tamir Hazan and Raquel Urtasun. Efficient learning of structured predictors in general graphical models. CoRR, abs/1210.2346, 2012. [10] Xuming He, Richard S. Zemel, and Miguel ?. Carreira-Perpi??n. Multiscale conditional random fields for image labeling. In CVPR, 2004. [11] Tom Heskes. Convexity arguments for efficient minimization of the bethe and kikuchi free energies. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 26:153?190, 2006. [12] Sanjiv Kumar and Martial Hebert. Discriminative fields for modeling spatial dependencies in natural images. In NIPS, 2003. [13] Lubor Ladicky, Christopher Russell, Pushmeet Kohli, and Philip H. S. Torr. Associative hierarchical CRFs for object class image segmentation. In ICCV, 2009. [14] Andr? F. T. Martins, Noah A. Smith, and Eric P. Xing. Polyhedral outer approximations with application to natural language parsing. In ICML, 2009. [15] Ofer Meshi, Tommi Jaakkola, and Amir Globerson. Convergence rate analysis of MAP coordinate minimization algorithms. In NIPS. 2012. [16] Ofer Meshi, David Sontag, Tommi Jaakkola, and Amir Globerson. Learning efficiently with approximate inference via dual losses. In ICML, 2010. [17] Sebastian Nowozin, Peter V. Gehler, and Christoph H. Lampert. On parameter learning in CRF-based approaches to object class image segmentation. In ECCV, 2010. [18] Sebastian Nowozin, Carsten Rother, Shai Bagon, Toby Sharp, Bangpeng Yao, and Pushmeet Kohli. Decision tree fields. In ICCV, 2011. [19] Florian Schroff, Antonio Criminisi, and Andrew Zisserman. Object class segmentation using random forests. In BMVC, 2008. [20] Jamie Shotton, John M. Winn, Carsten Rother, and Antonio Criminisi. Textonboost for image understanding: Multi-class object recognition and segmentation by jointly modeling texture, layout, and context. IJCV, 81(1):2?23, 2009. [21] Nathan Silberman and Rob Fergus. Indoor scene segmentation using a structured light sensor. In ICCV Workshops, 2011. [22] Benjamin Taskar, Carlos Guestrin, and Daphne Koller. Max-margin markov networks. In NIPS, 2003. [23] Jakob J. Verbeek and Bill Triggs. Scene segmentation with crfs learned from partially labeled images. In NIPS, 2007. [24] John M. Winn and Jamie Shotton. The layout consistent random field for recognizing and segmenting partially occluded objects. In CVPR, 2006. [25] Jianxiong Xiao and Long Quan. Multiple view semantic segmentation for street view images. In ICCV, 2009. 9
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Correlations strike back (again): the case of associative memory retrieval Cristina Savin1 [email protected] Peter Dayan2 [email protected] M?at?e Lengyel1 [email protected] 1 Computational & Biological Learning Lab, Dept. Engineering, University of Cambridge, UK 2 Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London, UK Abstract It has long been recognised that statistical dependencies in neuronal activity need to be taken into account when decoding stimuli encoded in a neural population. Less studied, though equally pernicious, is the need to take account of dependencies between synaptic weights when decoding patterns previously encoded in an auto-associative memory. We show that activity-dependent learning generically produces such correlations, and failing to take them into account in the dynamics of memory retrieval leads to catastrophically poor recall. We derive optimal network dynamics for recall in the face of synaptic correlations caused by a range of synaptic plasticity rules. These dynamics involve well-studied circuit motifs, such as forms of feedback inhibition and experimentally observed dendritic nonlinearities. We therefore show how addressing the problem of synaptic correlations leads to a novel functional account of key biophysical features of the neural substrate. 1 Introduction Auto-associative memories have a venerable history in computational neuroscience. However, it is only rather recently that the statistical revolution in the wider field has provided theoretical traction for this problem [1]. The idea is to see memory storage as a form of lossy compression ? information on the item being stored is mapped into a set of synaptic changes ? with the neural dynamics during retrieval representing a biological analog of a corresponding decompression algorithm. This implies there should be a tight, and indeed testable, link between the learning rule used for encoding and the neural dynamics used for retrieval [2]. One issue that has been either ignored or trivialized in these treatments of recall is correlations among the synapses [1?4] ? beyond the perfect (anti-)correlations emerging between reciprocal synapses with precisely (anti-)symmetric learning rules [5]. There is ample experimental data for the existence of such correlations: for example, in rat visual cortex, synaptic connections tend to cluster together in the form of overrepresented patterns, or motifs, with reciprocal connections being much more common than expected by chance, and the strengths of the connections to and from each neuron being correlated [6]. The study of neural coding has indicated that it is essential to treat correlations in neural activity appropriately in order to extract stimulus information well [7? 9]. Similarly, it becomes pressing to examine the nature of correlations among synaptic weights in auto-associative memories, the consequences for retrieval of ignoring them, and methods by which they might be accommodated. 1 Here, we consider several well-known learning rules, from simple additive ones to bounded synapses with metaplasticity, and show that, with a few significant exceptions, they induce correlations between synapses that share a pre- or a post-synaptic partner. To assess the importance of these dependencies for recall, we adopt the strategy of comparing the performance of decoders which either do or do not take them into account [10], showing that they do indeed have an important effect on efficient retrieval. Finally, we show that approximately optimal retrieval involves particular forms of nonlinear interactions between different neuronal inputs, as observed experimentally [11]. 2 General problem formulation We consider a network of N binary neurons that enjoy all-to-all connectivity.1 As is conventional, and indeed plausibly underpinned by neuromodulatory interactions [12], we assume that network dynamics do not play a role during storage (with stimuli being imposed as patterns of activity on the neurons), and that learning does not occur during retrieval. To isolate the effects of different plasticity rules on synaptic correlations from other sources of correlations, we assume that the patterns of activity inducing the synaptic changes have no particular structure, i.e. their distribution factorizes. For further simplicity, we take these activity patterns to be binary with pattern density f , i.e. a prior over patterns defined as: Y Pstore (x) = Pstore (xi ) Pstore (xi ) = f xi ? (1 ? f )1?xi (1) i During recall, the network is presented with a cue, x ?, which is a noisy or partial version of one of the originally stored patterns. Network dynamics should complete this partial pattern, using the information in the weights W (and the cue). We start by considering arbitrary dynamics; later we impose the critical constraint for biological realisability that they be strictly local, i.e. the activity of neuron i should depend exclusively on inputs through incoming synapses Wi,? . Since information storage by synaptic plasticity is lossy, recall is inherently a probabilistic inference problem [1, 13] (Fig. 1a), requiring estimation of the posterior over patterns, given the information in the weights and the recall cue: ? ) ? Pstore (x) ? Pnoise (? P (x|W, x x|x) ? P(W|x) (2) This formulation has formed the foundation of recent work on constructing efficient autoassociative recall dynamics for a range of different learning rules [2?4]. In this paper, we focus on the last term P(W|x), which expresses the probability of obtaining W as the synaptic weight matrix when x is stored along with T ? 1 random patterns (sampled from the prior, Eq. 1). Critically, this is where we diverge from previous analyses that assumed this distribution was factorised, or only trivially correlated due to reciprocal synapses being precisely (anti-)symmetric [1, 2, 4]. In contrast, we explicitly study the emergence and effects of non-trivial correlations in the synaptic weight matrixdistribtion, because almost all synaptic plasticity rules induce statistical dependencies between the synaptic weights of each neuron (Fig. 1a, d). The inference problem expressed by Eq. 2 can be translated into neural dynamics in several ways ? dynamics could be deterministic, attractor-like, converging to the most likely pattern (a MAP estimate) of the distribution of x [2], or to a mean-field approximate solution [3]; alternatively, the dynamics could be stochastic, with the activity over time representing samples from the posterior, and hence implicitly capturing the uncertainty associated with the answer [4]. We consider the latter. Since we estimate performance by average errors, the optimal response is the mean of the posterior, which can be estimated by integrating the activity of the network during retrieval. We start by analysing the class of additive learning rules, to get a sense for the effect of correlations on retrieval. Later, we focus on multi-state synapses, for which learning rules are described by transition probabilities between the states [14]. These have been used to capture a variety of important biological constraints such as bounds on synaptic strengths and metaplasticity, i.e. the fact that synaptic changes induced by a certain activity pattern depend on the history of activity at the synapse [15]. The two classes of learning rule are radically different; so if synaptic correlations matter during retrieval in both cases, then the conclusion likely applies in general. 1 Complete connectivity simplifies the computation of the parameters for the optimal dynamics for cascadelike learning rules considered in the following, but is not necessary for the theory. 2 1 covariance rule simple Hebb rule cortical data (Song 2005) 0.5 0 d e error (%) 1 corr c error (%) b corr a 0.5 0 10 control exact (considering correlations) simple (ignoring correlations) 5 0 25 30 50 100 50 100 N 20 10 control 0 25 N Figure 1: Memory recall as inference and additive learning rules. a. Top: Synaptic weights, W, arise by storing the target pattern x together with T ?1 other patterns, {x(t) }t=1...T?1 . During ? , is a noisy version of the target pattern. The task of recall is to infer x given W recall, the cue, x and x ? (by marginalising out {x(t) }). Bottom: The activity of neuron i across the stored patterns is a source of shared variability between synapses connecting it to neurons j and k. b-c. Covariance rule: patterns of synaptic correlations and recall performance for retrieval dynamics ignoring or considering synaptic correlations; T = 5. d-e. Same for the simple Hebbian learning rule. The control is an optimal decoder that ignores W. 3 Additive learning rules Local additive learning rules assume that synaptic changes induced by different activity patterns combine additively; such that storing a sequence of T patterns from Pstore (x), results in weights P (t) (t) Wij = t ?(xi , xj ), with function ?(xi , xj ) describing the change in synaptic strength induced by presynaptic activity xj and postsynaptic activity xi . We consider a generalized Hebbian form for this function, with ? (xi , xj ) = (xi ? ?)(xj ? ?). This class includes, for example, the covariance rule (? = ? = f ), classically used in Hopfield networks, or simple Hebbian learning (? = ? = 0). As synaptic changes are deterministic, the only source of uncertainty in the distribution P(W|x) is the identity of the other stored patterns. To estimate this, let us first consider the distribution of the weights after storing one random pattern from Pstore (x). The mean ? and covariance C of the weight change induced by this event can be computed as:2 Z Z  ? = Pstore (x)?| (x)dx, C = Pstore (x) ?| (x) ? ?| (x)T dx ? ? ? ?T (3) Since the rule is additive and the patterns are independent, the mean and covariance scale linearly with the number of intervening patterns. Hence, the distribution over possible weight values at recall, given that pattern x is stored along with T ? 1 other, random, patterns has mean ?W = ?(x) + (T ? 1) ? ?, and covariance CW = (T ? 1) ? C. Most importantly, because the rule is additive, in the limit of many stored patterns (and in practice even for modest values of T ), the distribution P(W|x) approaches a multivariate Gaussian that is characterized completely by these two quantities; moreover, its covariance is independent of x. For retrieval dynamics based on Gibbs sampling, the key quantity is the log-odds ratio   P(xi = 1|x?i , W, x ?) (4) Ii = log P(xi = 0|x?i , W, x ?) for neuron i, which could be represented by the total current entering the unit. This would translate into a probability of firing given by the sigmoid activation function f (Ii ) = 1/(1 + e?Ii ). The total current entering a neuron is a sum of two terms: one term from the external input of the form c1 ? x ?i + c2 (with constants c1 and c2 determined by parameters f and r [16]), and one term from the recurrent input, of the form:  T   T    1 (0) (0) (1) (1) Iirec = (5) W| ? ?W C?1 W| ? ?W ? W| ? ?W C?1 W| ? ?W 2(T ?1) 2 For notational convenience, we use a column-vector form of the matrix of weight changes ?, and the weight matrix W, marked by subscript | . 3 (0/1) where ?W = ?| (x(0/1) )+(T?1)? and x(0/1) is the vector of activities obtained from x in which the activity of neuron i is set to 0, or 1, respectively. It is easy to see that for the covariance rule, ? (xi , xj ) = (xi ? f )(xj ? f ), synapses sharing a single pre- or post-synaptic partner happen to be uncorrelated (Fig. 1b). Moreover, as for any (anti-)symmetric additive learning rule, reciprocal connections are perfectly correlated (Wij = Wji ). The (non-degenerate part of the) covariance matrix in this case becomes diagonal, and the total current in optimal retrieval reduces to simple linear dynamics : Ii = 1 2 (T ? 1) ?W X Wij xj ? j | {z } recurrent input  X (1 ? 2f )2 X 1 ? 2f Wij ? f 2 xj ? f 2 2 j j | {z } {z } | {z } | feedback inhibition homeostatic term (6) constant 2 where ?W is the variance of a synaptic weight resulting from storing a single pattern. This term includes a contribution from recurrent excitatory input, dynamic feedback inhibition (proportional to the total population activity) and a homeostatic term that reduces neuronal excitability as function of the net strength of its synapses (a proxy for average current the neuron expects to receive) [17]. Reassuringly, the optimal decoder for the covariance rule recovers a form for the input current that is closely related to classic Hopfield-like [5] dynamics (with external field [1, 18]): feedback inhibition is needed only when the stored patterns are not balanced (f 6= 0.5); for the balanced case, the homeostatic term can be integrated in the recurrent current, by rewriting neural activities as spins. In sum, for the covariance rule, synapses are fortuitously uncorrelated (except for symmetric pairs which are perfectly correlated), and thus simple, classical linear recall dynamics suffice (Fig. 1c). The covariance rule is, however, the exception rather than the rule. For example, for simple Hebbian learning, ? (xi , xj ) = xi ?xj , synapses sharing a pre- or post-synaptic partner are correlated (Fig. 1d) and so the covariance matrix C is no longer diagonal. Interestingly, the final expression of the recurrent current to a neuron remains strictly local (because of additivity and symmetry), and very similar to Eq. 6, but feedback inhibition becomes a non-linear function of the total activity in the network [16]. In this case, synaptic correlations have a dramatic effect: using the optimal non-linear dynamics ensures high performance, but trying to retrieve information using a decoder that assumes synaptic independence (and thus uses linear dynamics) yields extremely poor performance, which is even worse than the obvious control of relying only on the information in the recall cue and the prior over patterns (Fig. 1e). For the generalized Hebbian case, ? (xi , xj ) = (xi ??)(xj ??) with ? 6= ?, the optimal decoder becomes even more complex, with the total current including additional terms accounting for pairwise correlations between any two synapses that have neuron i as a pre- or post-synaptic partner [16]. Hence, retrieval is no longer strictly local3 and a biological implementation will require approximating the contribution of non-local terms as a function of locally available information, as we discuss in detail for palimpsest learning below. 4 Palimpsest learning rules Though additive learning rules are attractive for their analytical tractability, they ignore several important aspects of synaptic plasticity, e.g. they assume that synapses can grow without bound. We investigate the effects of bounded weights by considering another class of learning rules, which assumes synaptic efficacies can only take binary values, with stochastic transitions between the two underpinned by paired cascades of latent internal states [14] (Fig. 2). These learning rules, though very simple, capture an important aspect of memory ? the fact that memory is leaky, and information about the past is overwritten by newly stored items (usually referred to as the palimpsest property). Additionally, such rules can account for experimentally observed synaptic metaplasticity [15]. 3 For additive learning rules, the current to neuron i always depends only on synapses local to a neuron, but these can also include outgoing synapses of which the weight, W?i , should not influence its dynamics. We refer to such dynamics as ?semi-local?. For other learning rules, the optimal current to neuron i may depend on all connections in the network, including Wjk with j, k 6= i (?non-local? dynamics). 4 R1 D P post R2 R3 c - - 0 1 D P P D D P 0 1 pre 0.4 cortex data (Song 2005) d correlated synapses 20 10 0.2 0 0 0.4 20 error (%) b correlation coefficient a 0.2 0 0.6 pseudostorage 10 0 20 0.3 * 10 0 exact approx 0 simple dynamics * corr-dependent dynamics Figure 2: Palimpsest learning. a. The cascade model. Colored circles are latent states (V ) that belong to two different synaptic weights (W ), arrows are state transitions (blue: depression, red: potentiation) b. Different variants of mapping pre- and post-synaptic activations to depression (D) and potentiation (P): R1?postsynaptically gated, R2?presynaptically gated, R3?XOR rule. c. Correlation structure induced by these learning rules. c. Retrieval performance for each rule. Learning rule Learning is stochastic and local, with changes in the state of a synapse Vij being determined only by the activation of the pre- and post-synaptic neurons, xj and xi . In general, one could define separate transition matrices for each activity pattern, M(xi , xj ), describing the probability of a synaptic state transitioning between any two states Vij to Vij0 following an activity pattern, (xi , xj ). For simplicity, we define only two such matrices, for potentiation, M+ , and depression, M? , respectively, and then map different activity patterns to these events. In particular, we assume Fusi?s cascade model [14]4 and three possible mappings (Fig. 2b [16]): 1) a postsynaptically gated learning rule, where changes occur only when the postsynaptic neuron is active, with co-activation of pre- and post- neuron leading to potentiation, and to depression otherwise5 ; 2) a presynaptically gated learning rule, typically assumed when analysing cascades[20, 21]; and 3) an XOR-like learning rule which assumes potentiation occurs whenever the pre- and post- synaptic activity levels are the same, with depression otherwise. The last rule, proposed by Ref. 22, was specifically designed to eliminate correlations between synapses, and can be viewed as a version of the classic covariance rule fashioned for binary synapses. Estimating the mean and covariance of synaptic weights At the level of a single synapse, the presentation of a sequence of uncorrelated patterns from Pstore (x) corresponds to a Markov random walk, P defined by a transition matrix M, which averages over possible neural activity patterns: M = xi ,xj Pstore (xi ) ? Pstore (xj ) ? M(xi , xj ). The distribution over synaptic states t steps after the initial encoding can be calculated by starting from the stationary distribution of the weights ? V 0 (assuming a large number of other patterns have previously been stored; formally, this is the eigenvector of M corresponding to eigenvalue ? = 1), then storing the pattern (xi , xj ), and finally t ? 1 other patterns from the prior: t?1 ? V (xi , xj , t) = M ? M(xi , xj ) ? ? V 0 , (7) ?lV with the distribution over states given as a column vector, = P(Vij = l|xi , xj ), l ? {1 . . . 2n}, where n is the depth of the cascade. Lastly, the distribution over weights, P(Wij |xi , xj ), can be derived as ? W = MV ?W ? ? V , where MV ?W is a deterministic map from states to observed weights (Fig. 2a). As in the additive case, the states of synapses sharing a pre- or post- synaptic partner will be correlated (Figs. 1a, 2c). The degree of correlations for different synaptic configurations can be estimated by generalising the above procedure to computing the joint distribution of the states of pairs of synapses, which we represent as a matrix ?. E.g. for a pair of synapses sharing a postsynaptic partner (Figs. 1b, d, and 2c), element (u, v) is ?uv = P(Vpost,pre1 = u, Vpost,pre2 = v). Hence, the presentation of an activity pattern (xpre1 , xpre2 , xpost ) induces changes in the corresponding pair of 4 Other models, e.g. serial [19], could be used as well without qualitatively affecting the results. One could argue that this is the most biologically relevant as plasticity is often NMDA-receptor dependent, and hence it requires postsynaptic depolarisation for any effect to occur. 5 5 incoming synapses to neuron post as ?(1) = M(xpost , xpre1 ) ? ?(0) ? M(xpost , xpre2 )T , where ?(0) is the stationary distribution corresponding to storing an infinite number of triplets from the pattern distribution [16]. Replacing ? V with ? (which is now a function of the triplet (xpre1 , xpre2 , xpost )), and the multiplication by M with the slightly more complicated operator above, we can estimate the evolution of the joint distribution over synaptic states in a manner very similar to Eq. 7: X ? i ) ? ?(t?1) ? M(x ? i )T , Pstore (xi ) ? M(x (8) ?(t) = xi P ? i) = where M(x xj Pstore (xj )M(xi , xj ). Also as above, the final joint distribution over states can be mapped into a joint distribution over synaptic weights as MV ?W ? ?(t) ? MT V ?W . This approach can be naturally extended to all other correlated pairs of synapses [16]. The structure of correlations for different synaptic pairs varies significantly as a function of the learning rule (Fig. 2c), with the overall degree of correlations depending on a range of factors. Correlations tend to decrease with cascade depth and pattern sparsity. The first two variants of the learning rule considered are not symmetric, and so induce different patterns of correlations than the additive rules above. The XOR rule is similar to the covariance rule, but the reciprocal connections are no longer perfectly correlated (due to metaplasticity), which means that it is no longer possible to factorize P(W|x). Hence, assuming independence at decoding seems bound to introduce errors. Approximately optimal retrieval when synapses are independent If we ignore synaptic correlations, the evidence from the weights factorizes, P(W|x) = Q 3 i,j P(Wij |xi , xj ), and so the exact dynamics would be semi-local . We can further approximate the contribution of the outgoing weights by its mean, which recovers the same simple dynamics derived for the additive case:   X X X P(xi = 1|x?i , W, x ?) Ii = log = c1 Wij xj + c2 Wij + c3 xj + c4 x?i + c5 (9) j j j P(xi = 0|x?i , W, x ?) The parameters c. depend on the prior over x, the noise model, the parameters of the learning rule and t. Again, the optimal decoder is similar to previously derived attractor dynamics; in particular, for stochastic binary synapses with presynaptically gated learning the optimal dynamics require dynamic inhibition only for sparse patterns, and no homeostatic term, as used in [21] . To validate these dynamics, we remove synaptic correlations by a pseudo-storage procedure in which synapses are allowed to evolve independently according to transition matrix M, rather than changing as actual intermediate patterns are stored. The dynamics work well in this case, as expected (Fig. 2d, blue bars). However, when storing actual patterns drawn from the prior, performance becomes extremely poor, and often worse than the control (Fig. 2d, gray bars). Moreover, performance worsens as the network size increases (not shown). Hence, ignoring correlations is highly detrimental for this class of learning rules too. Approximately optimal retrieval when synapses are correlated To accommodate synaptic correlations, we approximate P(W|x) with a maximum entropy distribution with the same marginals and covariance structure, ignoring the higher order moments.6 Specifically, we assume the evidence from the weights has the functional form: X  1X 1 exp kij (x, t) ? Wij + J(ij)(kl) (x, t) ? Wij Wkl (10) P(W|x, t) = ij ijkl Z(x, t) 2 We use the TAP mean-field method [23] to find parameters k and J and the partition function, Z, for each possible activity pattern x, given the mean and covariance for the synaptic weights matrix, computed above7 [16]. 6 This is just a generalisation of the simple dynamics which assume a first order max entropy model; moreover, the resulting weight distribution is a binary analog of the multivariate normal used in the additive case, allowing the two to be directly compared. 7 Here, we ask whether it is possible to accommodate correlations in appropriate neural dynamics at all, ignoring the issue of how the optimal values for the parameters of the network dynamics would come about. 6 a b no corr corr 5 0.05 0.5 0.01 0 0 0 0 ?5 ?10 ?0.05 d 12 6 0 ?2 0 2 4 6 8 10 number of coactive inputs 12 10 20 0 10 0 10 20 e 10 5 0 ?5 ?10 ?0.01 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 number of coactive inputs normalized EPSP 0 TIP 20 MIDDLE 10 postsynaptic current c postsynaptic current 0 BASE ?0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 number of inputs 7 Figure 3: Implications for neural dynamics. a. R1: parameters for Iirec ; linear modulation by network activity, nb . b. R2: nonlinear modulation of pairwise term by network activity (cf. middle panel in a); other parameters have P linear dependences on nb . c. R1: Total current as Pfunction of number of coactivated inputs, j Wij xj ; lines: different levels of neural excitability j Wij , line widths scale with frequency of occurrence in a sample run. d. Same for R2. e. Nonlinear integration in dendrites, reproduced from [11], cf. curves in c. Exact retrieval dynamics based on Eq. 10, but not respecting locality constraints, work substantially better in the presence of synaptic correlations, for all rules (Fig. 2d, yellow bars). It is important to note that for the XOR rule, which was supposed to be the closest analog to the covariance rule and hence afford simple recall dynamics [22], error rates stay above control, suggesting that it is actually a case in which even dependencies beyond 2nd-order correlation would need to be considered. As in the additive case, exact recall dynamics are biologically implausible, as the total current to the neuron depends on the full weight matrix. It is possible to approximate the dynamics using strictly local information by replacing the nonlocal term by its mean, which, however, is no longer a P constant, but rather a linear function of the total activity in the network, nb = j6=i xj [16]. Under this approximation, the current from recurrent connections corresponding to the evidence from the weights becomes:  X  P(W|x(1) ) 1X 4 J4 = k (x)Wij Wik ? Z 4 (11) (x)W + Iirec = log ij ij jk (ij)(ik) j 2 P(W|x(0) ) where i is the index of the neuron to be updated, and x(0/1) activity vector has the to-be-updated neuron?s activity set to 1 or 0, respectively, and all other components given by the  current network  4 4 state. The functions kij (x) = kij (x(1) )?kij (x(0) ), J(ij)(kl) (x) = J(ij)(kl) x(1) ?J(ij)(kl) x(0) ,   and Z 4 = log Z x(1) ? log Z x(0) depend on the local activity at the indexed synapses, modulated by the number of active neurons in the network, nb . This approximation is again consistent with our previous analysis, i.e. in the absence of synaptic correlations, the complex dynamics recover the simple case presented before. Importantly, this approximation also does about as well as exact dynamics (Fig. 2d, red bars). For post-synaptically gated learning, comparing the parameters of the dynamics in the case of independent versus correlated synapses (Fig. 3a) reveals a modest modulation of the recurrent input by the total activity. More importantly, the net current to the postsynaptic P neuron depends non-linearly (formally, quadratically) on the number of co-active inputs, nW 1 = j xj Wij , (Fig. 3c), which is reminiscent of experimentally observed dendritic non-linearities [11] (Fig. 3e). Conversely, for the presynaptically gated learning rule, approximately optimal dynamics predict a non-monotonic modulation of activity by lateral inhibition (Fig. 3b), but linear neural integration (Fig. 3d).8 Lastly, retrieval based on the XOR rule has the same form as the simple dynamics derived for the factorized case [16]. However, the total current has to be rescaled to compensate for the correlations introduced by reciprocal connections. 8 The difference between the two rules emerges exclusively because of the constraint of strict locality of the approximation, since the exact form of the dynamics is essentially the same for the two. 7 additive cascade RULE covariance simple Hebbian generalized Hebbian presyn. gated postsyn. gated XOR EXACT DYNAMICS strictly local, linear strictly local, nonlinear semi-local, nonlinear nonlocal, nonlinear nonlocal, nonlinear beyond correlations NEURAL IMPLEMENTATION linear feedback inh., homeostasis nonlinear feedback inh. nonlinear feedback inh. nonlinear feedback inh., linear dendritic integr. linear feedback inh., non-linear dendritic integr. ? Table 1: Results summary: circuit adaptations against correlations for different learning rules. 5 Discussion Statistical dependencies between synaptic efficacies are a natural consequence of activity dependent synaptic plasticity, and yet their implications for network function have been unexplored. Here, in the context of an auto-associative memory network, we investigated the patterns of synaptic correlations induced by several well-known learning rules and their consequent effects on retrieval. We showed that most rules considered do indeed induce synaptic correlations and that failing to take them into account greatly damages recall. One fortuitous exception is the covariance rule, for which there are no synaptic correlations. This might explain why the bulk of classical treatments of autoassociative memories, using the covariance rule, could achieve satisfying capacity levels despite overlooking the issue of synaptic correlations [5, 24, 25]. In general, taking correlations into account optimally during recall requires dynamics in which there are non-local interactions between neurons. However, we derived approximations that perform well and are biologically realisable without such non-locality (Table 1). Examples include the modulation of neural responses by the total activity of the population, which could be mediated by feedback inhibition, and specific dendritic nonlinearities. In particular, for the post-synaptically gated learning rule, which may be viewed as an abstract model of hippocampal NMDA receptor-dependent plasticity, our model predicts a form of non-linear mapping of recurrent inputs into postsynaptic currents which is similar to experimentally observed dendritic integration in cortical pyramidal cells [11]. In general, the tight coupling between the synaptic plasticity used for encoding (manifested in patterns of synaptic correlations) and circuit dynamics offers an important route for experimental validation [2]. None of the rules governing synaptic plasticity that we considered perfectly reproduced the pattern of correlations in [6]; and indeed, exactly which rule applies in what region of the brain under which neuromodulatory influences is unclear. Furthermore, results in [6] concern the neocortex rather than the hippocampus, which is a more common target for models of auto-associative memory. Nonetheless, our analysis has shown that synaptic correlations matter for a range of very different learning rules that span the spectrum of empirical observations. Another strategy to handle the negative effects of synaptic correlations is to weaken or eliminate them. For instance, in the palimpsest synaptic model [14], the deeper the cascade, the weaker the correlations, and so metaplasticity may have the beneficial effect of making recall easier. Another, popular, idea is to use very sparse patterns [21], although this reduces the information content of each one. More speculatively, one might imagine a process of off-line synaptic pruning or recoding, in which strong correlations are removed or the weights adjusted so that simple recall methods will work. Here, we focused on second-order correlations. However, for plasticity rules such as XOR, we showed that this does not suffice. Rather, higher-order correlations would need to be considered, and thus, presumably higher-order interactions between neurons approximated. Finally, we know from work on neural coding of sensory stimuli that there are regimes in which correlations either help or hurt the informational quality of the code, assuming that decoding takes them into account. Given our results, it becomes important to look at the relative quality of different plasticity rules, assuming realizable decoding ? it is not clear whether rules that strive to eliminate correlations will be bested by ones that do not. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust (CS, ML), the Gatsby Charitable Foundation (PD), and the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007?2013) under grant agreement no. 269921 (BrainScaleS) (ML). 8 References 1. Sommer, F.T. & Dayan, P. Bayesian retrieval in associative memories with storage errors. IEEE transactions on neural networks 9, 705?713 (1998). 2. Lengyel, M., Kwag, J., Paulsen, O. & Dayan, P. Matching storage and recall: hippocampal spike timingdependent plasticity and phase response curves. Nature Neuroscience 8, 1677?1683 (2005). 3. Lengyel, M. & Dayan, P. Uncertainty, phase and oscillatory hippocampal recall. Advances in Neural Information Processing (2007). 4. Savin, C., Dayan, P. & Lengyel, M. Two is better than one: distinct roles for familiarity and recollection in retrieving palimpsest memories. in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 24 (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2011). 5. Hopfield, J.J. Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational abilities. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 76, 2554?2558 (1982). 6. Song, S., Sj?ostr?om, P.J., Reigl, M., Nelson, S. & Chklovskii, D.B. Highly nonrandom features of synaptic connectivity in local cortical circuits. PLoS biology 3, e68 (2005). 7. Dayan, P. & Abbott, L. Theoretical Neuroscience (MIT Press, 2001). 8. Averbeck, B.B., Latham, P.E. & Pouget, A. Neural correlations, population coding and computation. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 7, 358?366 (2006). 9. Pillow, J.W. et al. Spatio-temporal correlations and visual signalling in a complete neuronal population. Nature 454, 995?999 (2008). 10. Latham, P.E. & Nirenberg, S. Synergy, redundancy, and independence in population codes, revisited. Journal of Neuroscience 25, 5195?5206 (2005). 11. Branco, T. & H?ausser, M. Synaptic integration gradients in single cortical pyramidal cell dendrites. Neuron 69, 885?892 (2011). 12. Hasselmo, M.E. & Bower, J.M. Acetylcholine and memory. Trends Neurosci. 16, 218?222 (1993). 13. MacKay, D.J.C. Maximum entropy connections: neural networks. in Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Laramie, 1990 (eds. Grandy, Jr, W.T. & Schick, L.H.) 237?244 (Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1991). 14. Fusi, S., Drew, P.J. & Abbott, L.F. Cascade models of synaptically stored memories. Neuron 45, 599?611 (2005). 15. Abraham, W.C. Metaplasticity: tuning synapses and networks for plasticity. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 9, 387 (2008). 16. For details, see Supplementary Information. 17. Zhang, W. & Linden, D. The other side of the engram: experience-driven changes in neuronal intrinsic excitability. Nature Reviews Neuroscience (2003). 18. Engel, A., Englisch, H. & Sch?utte, A. Improved retrieval in neural networks with external fields. Europhysics Letters (EPL) 8, 393?397 (1989). 19. Leibold, C. & Kempter, R. Sparseness constrains the prolongation of memory lifetime via synaptic metaplasticity. Cerebral cortex (New York, N.Y. : 1991) 18, 67?77 (2008). 20. Amit, Y. & Huang, Y. Precise capacity analysis in binary networks with multiple coding level inputs. Neural computation 22, 660?688 (2010). 21. Huang, Y. & Amit, Y. Capacity analysis in multi-state synaptic models: a retrieval probability perspective. Journal of computational neuroscience (2011). 22. Dayan Rubin, B. & Fusi, S. Long memory lifetimes require complex synapses and limited sparseness. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience (2007). 23. Thouless, D.J., Anderson, P.W. & Palmer, R.G. Solution of ?Solvable model of a spin glass?. Philosophical Magazine 35, 593?601 (1977). 24. Amit, D., Gutfreund, H. & Sompolinsky, H. Storing infinite numbers of patterns in a spin-glass model of neural networks. Phys Rev Lett 55, 1530?1533 (1985). 25. Treves, A. & Rolls, E.T. What determines the capacity of autoassociative memories in the brain? Network 2, 371?397 (1991). 9
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A memory frontier for complex synapses Subhaneil Lahiri and Surya Ganguli Department of Applied Physics, Stanford University, Stanford CA [email protected], [email protected] Abstract An incredible gulf separates theoretical models of synapses, often described solely by a single scalar value denoting the size of a postsynaptic potential, from the immense complexity of molecular signaling pathways underlying real synapses. To understand the functional contribution of such molecular complexity to learning and memory, it is essential to expand our theoretical conception of a synapse from a single scalar to an entire dynamical system with many internal molecular functional states. Moreover, theoretical considerations alone demand such an expansion; network models with scalar synapses assuming finite numbers of distinguishable synaptic strengths have strikingly limited memory capacity. This raises the fundamental question, how does synaptic complexity give rise to memory? To address this, we develop new mathematical theorems elucidating the relationship between the structural organization and memory properties of complex synapses that are themselves molecular networks. Moreover, in proving such theorems, we uncover a framework, based on first passage time theory, to impose an order on the internal states of complex synaptic models, thereby simplifying the relationship between synaptic structure and function. 1 Introduction It is widely thought that our very ability to remember the past over long time scales depends crucially on our ability to modify synapses in our brain in an experience dependent manner. Classical models of synaptic plasticity model synaptic efficacy as an analog scalar value, denoting the size of a postsynaptic potential injected into one neuron from another. Theoretical work has shown that such models have a reasonable, extensive memory capacity, in which the number of long term associations that can be stored by a neuron is proportional its number of afferent synapses [1?3]. However, recent experimental work has shown that many synapses are more digital than analog; they cannot robustly assume an infinite continuum of analog values, but rather can only take on a finite number of distinguishable strengths, a number than can be as small as two [4?6] (though see [7]). This one simple modification leads to a catastrophe in memory capacity: classical models with digital synapses, when operating in a palimpset mode in which the ongoing storage of new memories can overwrite previous memories, have a memory capacity proportional to the logarithm of the number of synapses [8, 9]. Intuitively, when synapses are digital, the storage of a new memory can flip a population of synaptic switches, thereby rapidly erasing previous memories stored in the same synaptic population. This result indicates that the dominant theoretical basis for the storage of long term memories in modifiable synaptic switches is flawed. Recent work [10?12] has suggested that a way out of this logarithmic catastrophe is to expand our theoretical conception of a synapse from a single scalar value to an entire stochastic dynamical system in its own right. This conceptual expansion is further necessitated by the experimental reality that synapses contain within them immensely complex molecular signaling pathways, with many internal molecular functional states (e.g. see [4, 13, 14]). While externally, synaptic efficacy could be digital, candidate patterns of electrical activity leading to potentiation or depression could yield transitions between these internal molecular states without necessarily inducing an associated change in 1 synaptic efficacy. This form of synaptic change, known as metaplasticity [15, 16], can allow the probability of synaptic potentiation or depression to acquire a rich dependence on the history of prior changes in efficacy, thereby potentially improving memory capacity. Theoretical studies of complex, metaplastic synapses have focused on analyzing the memory performance of a limited number of very specific molecular dynamical systems, characterized by a number of internal states in which potentiation and depression each induce a specific set of allowable transitions between states (e.g. see Figure 1 below). While these models can vastly outperform simple binary synaptic switches, these analyses leave open several deep and important questions. For example, how does the structure of a synaptic dynamical system determine its memory performance? What are the fundamental limits of memory performance over the space of all possible synaptic dynamical systems? What is the structural organization of synaptic dynamical systems that achieve these limits? Moreover, from an experimental perspective, it is unlikely that all synapses can be described by a single canonical synaptic model; just like the case of neurons, there is an incredible diversity of molecular networks underlying synapses both across species and across brain regions within a single organism [17]. In order to elucidate the functional contribution of this diverse molecular complexity to learning and memory, it is essential to move beyond the analysis of specific models and instead develop a general theory of learning and memory for complex synapses. Moreover, such a general theory of complex synapses could aid in development of novel artificial memory storage devices. Here we initiate such a general theory by proving upper bounds on the memory curve associated with any synaptic dynamical system, within the well established ideal observer framework of [10, 11, 18]. Along the way we develop principles based on first passage time theory to order the structure of synaptic dynamical systems and relate this structure to memory performance. We summarize our main results in the discussion section. 2 Overall framework: synaptic models and their memory curves In this section, we describe the class of models of synaptic plasticity that we are studying and how we quantify their memory performance. In the subsequent sections, we will find upper bounds on this performance. We use a well established formalism for the study of learning and memory with complex synapses (see [10, 11, 18]). In this approach, electrical patterns of activity corresponding to candidate potentiating and depressing plasticity events occur randomly and independently at all synapses at a Poisson rate r. These events reflect possible synaptic changes due to either spontaneous network activity, or the storage of new memories. We let f pot and f dep denote the fraction of these events that are candidate potentiating or depressing events respectively. Furthermore, we assume our synaptic model has M internal molecular functional states, and that a candidate potentiating (depotentiating) event induces a stochastic transition in the internal state described by an M ? M discrete time Markov transition matrix Mpot (Mdep ). In this framework, the states of different synapses will be independent, and the entire synaptic population can be fully described by the probability distribution across these states, which we will indicate with the row-vector p(t). Thus the i?th component of p(t) denotes the fraction of the synaptic population in state i. Furthermore, each state i has its own synaptic weight, wi , which we take, in the worst case scenario, to be restricted to two values. After shifting and scaling these two values, we can assume they are ?1, without loss of generality. We also employ an ?ideal observer? approach to the memory readout, where the synaptic weights are read directly. This provides an upper bound on the quality of any readout using neural activity. For any single memory, stored at time t = 0, we assume there will be an ideal pattern of synaptic weights across a population of N synapses, the N -element vector w ~ ideal , that is +1 at all synapses that experience a candidate potentiation event, and ?1 at all synapses that experience a candidate depression event at the time of memory storage. We assume that any pattern of synaptic weights close to w ~ ideal is sufficient to recall the memory. However, the actual pattern of synaptic weights at some later time, t, will change to w(t) ~ due to further modifications from the storage of subsequent memories. We can use the overlap between these, w ~ ideal ? w(t), ~ as a measure of the quality of the memory. As t ? ?, the system will return to its steady state distribution which will be uncorrelated 2 Cascade model (b) Serial model (c) ?1 10 SNR (a) ?2 10 Cascade Serial ?3 10 ?1 10 0 10 1 10 Time 2 10 3 10 Figure 1: Models of complex synapses. (a) The cascade model of [10], showing transitions between states of high/low synaptic weight (red/blue circles) due to potentiation/depression (solid red/dashed blue arrows). (b) The serial model of [12]. (c) The memory curves of these two models, showing the decay of the signal-to-noise ratio (to be defined in ?2) as subsequent memories are stored. with the memory stored at t = 0. The probability distribution of the quantity w ~ ideal ? w(?) ~ can be used as a ?null model? for comparison. The extent to which the memory has been stored is described by a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) [10, 11]: hw ~ ideal ? w(t)i ~ ? hw ~ ideal ? w(?)i ~ p SNR(t) = . (1) Var(w ~ ideal ? w(?)) ~ ? The noise in the denominator is essentially N . There is a correction when potentiation and depression are imbalanced, but this will not affect the upper bounds that we will discuss below and will be ignored in the subsequent formulae. A simple average memory curve can be derived as follows. All of the preceding plasticity events, prior to t = 0, will put the population of synapses in its steady-state distribution, p? . The memory we are tracking at t = 0 will change the internal state distribution to p? Mpot (or p? Mdep ) in those synapses that experience a candidate potentiation (or depression) event. As the potentiating/depressing nature of the subsequent memories is independent of w ~ ideal , we can average over all sequences, resulting in the evolution of the probability distribution: dp(t) = rp(t)WF , where WF = f pot Mpot + f dep Mdep ? I. (2) dt Here WF is a continuous time transition matrix that models the process of forgetting the memory stored at time t = 0 due to random candidate potentiation/depression events occurring at each synapse due to the storage of subsequent memories. Its stationary distribution is p? . This results in the following SNR ?   F (3) SNR(t) = N 2f pot f dep p? Mpot ? Mdep ertW w. A detailed derivation of this formula can be found in the supplementary material. We will frequently refer to this function as the memory curve. It can be thought of as the excess fraction of synapses (relative to equilibrium) that maintain their ideal synaptic strength at time t, as dictated by the stored memory at time t = 0. Much of the previous work on these types of complex synaptic models has focused on understanding the memory curves of specific models, or choices of Mpot/dep . Two examples of these models are shown in Figure 1. We see that they have different memory properties. The serial model performs relatively well at one particular timescale, but it performs poorly at other times. The cascade model does not perform quite as well at that time, but it maintains its performance over a wider range of timescales. In this work, rather than analyzing specific models, we take a different approach, in order to obtain a more general theory. We consider the entire space of these models and find upper bounds on the memory capacity of any of them. The space of models with a fixed number of internal states M is parameterized by the pair of M ? M discrete time stochastic transition matrices Mpot and Mdep , in addition to f pot/dep . The parameters must satisfy the following constraints: Mpot/dep ? [0, 1], ij X Mpot/dep ij = 1, f pot/dep ? [0, 1], f pot + f dep = 1, j p? WF = 0, X p? i = 1. i 3 wi = ?1, (4) and f pot/dep follow automatically from the other constraints. The upper bounds on Mpot/dep ij The critical question is: what do these constraints imply about the space of achievable memory curves in (3)? To answer this question, especially for limits on achievable memory at finite times, it will be useful to employ the eigenmode decomposition: X WF = ?qa ua va , va ub = ?ab , WF ua = ?qa ua , va WF = ?qa va . (5) a Here qa are the negative of the eigenvalues of the forgetting process WF , ua are the right (column) eigenvectors and va are the left (row) eigenvectors. This decomposition allows us to write the memory curve as a sum of exponentials, ? X SNR(t) = N Ia e?rt/?a , (6) a where Ia = (2f pot f dep )p? (Mpot ? Mdep )ua va w and ?a = 1/qa . We can then ask the question: what are the constraints on these quantities, namely eigenmode initial SNR?s, Ia , and time constants, ?a , implied by the constraints in (4)? We will derive some of these constraints in the next section. 3 Upper bounds on achievable memory capacity In the previous section, in (3) we have described an analytic expression for a memory curve as a function of the structure of a synaptic dynamical system, described by the pair of stochastic transition matrices Mpot/dep . Since the performance measure for memory is an entire memory curve, and not just a single number, there is no universal scalar notion of optimal memory in the space of synaptic dynamical systems. Instead there are tradeoffs between storing proximal and distal memories; often attempts to increase memory at late (early) times by changing Mpot/dep , incurs a performance loss in memory at early (late) times in specific models considered so far [10?12]. Thus our end goal, achieved in ?4, is to derive an envelope memory curve in the SNR-time plane, or a curve that forms an upper-bound on the entire memory curve of any model. In order to achieve this goal, in this section, we must first derive upper bounds, over the space of all possible synaptic models, on two different scalar functions of the memory curve: its initial SNR, and the area under the memory curve. In the process of upper-bounding the area, we will develop an essential framework to organize the structure of synaptic dynamical systems based on first passage time theory. 3.1 Bounding initial SNR We now give an upper bound on the initial SNR, ?   SNR(0) = N 2f pot f dep p? Mpot ? Mdep w, (7) over all possible models and also find the class of models that saturate this bound. A useful quantity is the equilibrium probability flux between two disjoint sets of states, A and B: XX F ?AB = rp? (8) i Wij . i?A j?B The initial SNR is closely related to the flux from the states with wi = ?1 to those with wj = +1 (see supplementary material): ? 4 N ??+ SNR(0) ? . (9) r This inequality becomes an equality if potentiation never decreases the synaptic weight and depression never increases it, which should be a property of any sensible model. To maximize this flux, potentiation from a weak state must be guaranteed to end in a strong state, and depression must do the reverse. An example of such a model is shown in Figure 2(a,b). These models have a property known as ?lumpability? (see [19, ?6.3] for the discrete time version and [20, 21] for continuous time). They are completely equivalent (i.e. have the same memory curve) as a two state model with transition probabilities equal to 1, as shown in Figure 2(c). 4 (a) (b) (c) 1 1 Figure 2: Synaptic models that maximize initial SNR. (a) For potentiation, all transitions starting from a weak state lead to a strong state, and the probabilities for all transitions leaving a given weak state sum to 1. (a) Depression is similar to potentiation, but with strong and weak interchanged. (c) The equivalent two state model, with transition probabilities under potentiation and depression equal to one. This two state model has the equilibrium distribution p? = (f dep , f pot ) and its flux is given by ??+ = rf pot f dep . This is maximized when f pot = f dep = 12 , leading to the upper bound: ? SNR(0) ? N . (10) We note that while this model has high initial SNR, it also has very fast memory decay ? with a timescale ? ? 1r . As the synapse is very plastic, the initial memory is encoded very easily, but the subsequent memories also overwrite it rapidly. This is one example of the tradeoff between optimizing memory at early versus late times. 3.2 Imposing order on internal states through first passage times Our goal of understanding the relationship between structure and function in the space of all possible synaptic models is complicated by the fact that this space contains many different possible network topologies, encoded in the nonzero matrix elements of Mpot/dep . To systematically analyze this entire space, we develop an important organizing principle using the theory of first passage times in the stochastic process of forgetting, described by WF . The mean first passage time matrix, Tij , is defined as the average time it takes to reach state j for the first time, starting from state i. The diagonal elements are defined to be zero. A remarkable theorem we will exploit is that the quantity X ?? Tij p? j , (11) j known as Kemeny?s constant (see [19, ?4.4]), is independent of the starting state i. Intuitively, (11) states that the average time it takes to reach any state, weighted by its equilibrium probability, is independent of the starting state, implying a hidden constancy inherent in any stochastic process. In the context of complex synapses, we can define the partial sums X X ?i+ = Tij p? ?i? = Tij p? j , j . j?+ (12) j?? These can be thought of as the average time it takes to reach the strong/weak states respectively. Using these definitions, we can then impose an order on the states by arranging them in order of decreasing ?i+ or increasing ?i? . Because ?i+ + ?i? = ? is independent of i, the two orderings are the same. In this order, which depends sensitively on the structure of Mpot/dep , states later (to the right in figures below) can be considered to be more potentiated than states earlier (to the left in figures below), despite the fact that they have the same synaptic efficacy. In essence, in this order, a state is considered to be more potentiated if the average time it takes to reach all the strong efficacy states is shorter. We will see that synaptic models that optimize various measures of memory have an exceedingly simple structure when, and only when, their states are arranged in this order.1 1 Note that we do not need to worry about the order of the ?i? changing during the optimization: necessary conditions for a maximum only require that there is no infinitesimal perturbation that increases the area. Therefore we need only consider an infinitesimal neighborhood of the model, in which the order will not change. 5 (a) (b) (c) Figure 3: Perturbations that increase the area. (a) Perturbations that increase elements of Mpot above the diagonal and decrease the corresponding elements of Mdep . It can no longer be used when Mdep is lower triangular, i.e. depression must move synapses to ?more depressed? states. (b) Perturbations that decrease elements of Mpot below the diagonal and increase the corresponding elements of Mdep . It can no longer be used when Mpot is upper triangular, i.e. potentiation must move synapses to ?more potentiated? states. (c) Perturbation that decreases ?shortcut? transitions and increases the bypassed ?direct? transitions. It can no longer be used when there are only nearestneighbor ?direct? transitions. 3.3 Bounding area Now consider the area under the memory curve: Z ? A= dt SNR(t). (13) 0 We will find an upper bound on this quantity as well as the model that saturates this bound. First passage time theory introduced in the previous section becomes useful because the area has a simple expression in terms of quantities introduced in (12) (see supplementary material):   X ?  pot dep A = N (4f pot f dep ) p? ?i+ ? ?j+ M ? M i ij ij ij ? = N (4f pot dep f ) X    dep p? ?j? ? ?i? . Mpot i ij ? Mij (14) ij With the states in the order described above, we can find perturbations of Mpot/dep that will always increase the area, whilst leaving the equilibrium distribution, p? , unchanged. Some of these perturbations are shown in Figure 3, see supplementary material for details. For example, in Figure 3(a), for two states i on the left and j on the right, with j being more ?potentiated? than i (i.e. ?i+ > ?j+ ), dep we have proven that increasing Mpot ij and decreasing Mij leads to an increase in area. The only thing that can prevent these perturbations from increasing the area is when they require the decrease of a matrix element that has already been set to 0. This determines the topology (non-zero transition probabilities) of the model with maximal area. It is of the form shown in Figure 4(c),with potentiation moving one step to the right and depression moving one step to the left. Any other topology would allow some class of perturbations (e.g. in Figure 3) to further increase the area. As these perturbations do not change the equilibrium distribution, this means that the area of any model is bounded by that of a linear chain with the same equilibrium distribution. The area of a linear chain model can be expressed directly in terms of its equilibrium state distribution, p? , yielding the following upper bound on the area of any model with the same p? (see supplementary material): ? ? ? ? X X X 2 N 2 N X? ? ? ? ? k? jp? p w = k ? jp A? (15) k j k j pk , r r j j k k P where we chose wk = sgn[k ? j jp? j ]. We can then maximize this by pushing all of the equilibrium distribution symmetrically to the two end states. This can be done by reducing the transition probabilities out of these states, as in Figure 4(c). This makes it very difficult to exit these states once they have been entered. The resulting area is ? N (M ? 1) . (16) A? r This analytical result is similar to a numerical result found in [18] under a slightly different information theoretic measure of memory performance. 6 The ?sticky? end states result in very slow decay of memory, but they also make it difficult to encode the memory in the first place, since a small fraction of synapses are able to change synaptic efficacy during the storage of a new memory. Thus models that maximize area optimize memory at late times, at the expense of early times. 4 Memory curve envelope Now we will look at the implications of the upper bounds found in the previous section for the SNR at finite times. As argued in (6), the memory curve can be written in the form ? X SNR(t) = N Ia e?rt/?a . (17) a The upper bounds on the initial SNR, (10), and the area, (16), imply the following constraints on the parameters {Ia , ?a }: X X Ia ? 1, Ia ?a ? M ? 1. (18) a a We are not claiming that these are a complete set of constraints: not every set {Ia , ?a } that satisfies these inequalities will actually be achievable by a synaptic model. However, any set that violates either inequality will definitely not be achievable. Now we can pick some fixed time, t0 , and maximize the SNR at that time wrt. the parameters {Ia , ?a }, subject to the constraints above. This always results in a single nonzero Ia ; in essence, optimizing memory at a single time requires a single exponential. The resulting optimal memory curve, along with the achieved memory at the chosen time, depends on t0 as follows: ? ? M ?1 t0 ? =? SNR(t) = N e?rt/(M ?1) =? SNR(t0 ) = N e?rt0 /(M ?1) , r ? ? (19) M ?1 N (M ? 1)e?t/t0 N (M ? 1) t0 ? =? SNR(t) = =? SNR(t0 ) = . r rt0 ert0 Both the initial SNR bound and the area bound are saturated at early times. At late times, only the area bound is saturated. The function SNR(t0 ), the green curve in Figure 4(a), above forms a memory curve envelope with late-time power-law decay ? t?1 0 . No synaptic model can have an SNR that is greater than this at any time. We can use this to find an upper bound on the memory lifetime, ? (), by finding the point at which the envelope crosses : ? N (M ? 1) , (20) ? () ? er where we assume N > (e)2 . Intriguingly, both the lifetime and memory envelope expand linearly with the number of internal states M , and increase as the square root of the number of synapses N . This leaves the question of whether this bound is achievable. At any time, can we find a model whose memory curve touches the envelope? The red curves in Figure 4(a) show the closest we have come to the envelope with actual models, by repeated numerical optimization of SNR(t0 ) over Mpot/dep with random initialization and by hand designed models. We see that at early, but not late times, there is a gap between the upper bound that we can prove and what we can achieve with actual models. There may be other models we haven?t found that could beat the ones we have, and come closer to our proven envelope. However, we suspect that the area constraint is not the bottleneck for optimizing memory at times less than O( M r ). We believe there is some other constraint that prevents models from approaching the envelope, and currently are exploring several mathematical conjectures for the precise form of this constraint in order to obtain a potentially tighter envelope. Nevertheless, we have proven rigorously that no model?s memory curve can ever exceed this envelope, and that it is at least tight for late times, longer than O( M r ), where models of the form in Figure 4(c)can come close to the envelope. 5 Discussion We have initiated the development of a general theory of learning and memory with complex synapses, allowing for an exploration of the entire space of complex synaptic models, rather than 7 (a) (b) 1 10 0 10 SNR envelope numerical search hand designed ?1 10 (c) ? Area bound active Initial SNR bound active ? ?2 10 ?1 10 0 10 1 10 Time 2 10 3 10 Figure 4: The memory curve envelope for N = 100, M = 12. (a) An upper bound on the SNR at any time is shown in green. The red dashed curve shows the result of numerical optimization of synaptic models with random initialization. The solid red curve shows the highest SNR we have found with hand designed models. At early times these models are of the form shown in (b) with different numbers of states, and all transition probabilities equal to 1. At late times they are of the form shown in (c) with different values of ?. The model shown in (c) also saturates the area bound (16) in the limit ? ? 0. analyzing individual models one at a time. In doing so, we have obtained several new mathematical results delineating the functional limits of memory achievable by synaptic complexity, and the structural characterization of synaptic dynamical systems that achieve these limits. In particular, operating within the ideal observer framework of [10, 11, 18], we have shown that for a population ? of N synapses with M internal states, (a) the initial SNR of any synaptic model cannot exceed N , and any model that achieves this bound is equivalent to a binary synapse, (b) the area under the memory curve of any model cannot exceed that of a linear chain model with the same ? equilibrium distribution, (c) both the area and memory lifetime of any model cannot exceed O( N M ), and the model that achieves this limit has a linear chain topology with only nearest neighbor transitions, (d) we have derived an envelope memory curve in the SNR-time plane that cannot be exceeded by the memory curve of any model, and models that approach this envelope for times greater ? than O( M r ) are linear chain models, and (e) this late-time envelope is a power-law proportional to O( N M /rt), indicating that synaptic complexity can strongly enhance the limits of achievable memory. This theoretical study opens up several avenues for further inquiry. In particular, the tightness of our envelope for early times, less than O( M r ), remains an open question, and we are currently pursuing several conjectures. We have also derived memory constrained envelopes, by asking in the space of models that achieve a given SNR at a given time, what is the maximal SNR achievable at other times. If these two times are beyond a threshold separation, optimal constrained models require two exponentials. It would be interesting to systematically analyze the space of models that achieve good memory at multiple times, and understand their structural organization, and how they give rise to multiple exponentials, leading to power law memory decays. Finally, it would be interesting to design physiological experiments in order to perform optimal systems identification of potential Markovian dynamical systems hiding within biological synapses, given measurements of pre and post-synaptic spike trains along with changes in post-synaptic potentials. Then given our theory, we could match this measured synaptic model to optimal models to understand for which timescales of memory, if any, biological synaptic dynamics may be tuned. In summary, we hope that a deeper theoretical understanding of the functional role of synaptic complexity, initiated here, will help advance our understanding of the neurobiology of learning and memory, aid in the design of engineered memory circuits, and lead to new mathematical theorems about stochastic processes. Acknowledgements We thank Sloan, Genenetech, Burroughs-Wellcome, and Swartz foundations for support. We thank Larry Abbott, Marcus Benna, Stefano Fusi, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein and David Sussillo for useful discussions. 8 References [1] J. J. Hopfield, ?Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational abilities,? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 79 (1982) no. 8, 2554?2558. [2] D. J. Amit, H. Gutfreund, and H. Sompolinsky, ?Spin-glass models of neural networks,? Phys. Rev. A 32 (Aug, 1985) 1007?1018. [3] E. Gardner, ?The space of interactions in neural network models,? Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 21 (1988) no. 1, 257. [4] T. V. P. Bliss and G. L. Collingridge, ?A synaptic model of memory: long-term potentiation in the hippocampus,? Nature 361 (Jan, 1993) 31?39. [5] C. C. H. Petersen, R. C. Malenka, R. A. Nicoll, and J. J. Hopfield, ?All-or-none potentiation at CA3-CA1 synapses,? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 95 (1998) no. 8, 4732?4737. [6] D. H. O?Connor, G. M. Wittenberg, and S. S.-H. 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Bayesian entropy estimation for binary spike train data using parametric prior knowledge Evan Archer13 , Il Memming Park123 , Jonathan W. Pillow123 1. Center for Perceptual Systems, 2. Dept. of Psychology, 3. Division of Statistics & Scientific Computation The University of Texas at Austin {memming@austin., earcher@, pillow@mail.} utexas.edu Abstract Shannon?s entropy is a basic quantity in information theory, and a fundamental building block for the analysis of neural codes. Estimating the entropy of a discrete distribution from samples is an important and difficult problem that has received considerable attention in statistics and theoretical neuroscience. However, neural responses have characteristic statistical structure that generic entropy estimators fail to exploit. For example, existing Bayesian entropy estimators make the naive assumption that all spike words are equally likely a priori, which makes for an inefficient allocation of prior probability mass in cases where spikes are sparse. Here we develop Bayesian estimators for the entropy of binary spike trains using priors designed to flexibly exploit the statistical structure of simultaneouslyrecorded spike responses. We define two prior distributions over spike words using mixtures of Dirichlet distributions centered on simple parametric models. The parametric model captures high-level statistical features of the data, such as the average spike count in a spike word, which allows the posterior over entropy to concentrate more rapidly than with standard estimators (e.g., in cases where the probability of spiking differs strongly from 0.5). Conversely, the Dirichlet distributions assign prior mass to distributions far from the parametric model, ensuring consistent estimates for arbitrary distributions. We devise a compact representation of the data and prior that allow for computationally efficient implementations of Bayesian least squares and empirical Bayes entropy estimators with large numbers of neurons. We apply these estimators to simulated and real neural data and show that they substantially outperform traditional methods. Introduction Information theoretic quantities are popular tools in neuroscience, where they are used to study neural codes whose representation or function is unknown. Neuronal signals take the form of fast (? 1 ms) spikes which are frequently modeled as discrete, binary events. While the spiking response of even a single neuron has been the focus of intense research, modern experimental techniques make it possible to study the simultaneous activity of hundreds of neurons. At a given time, the response of a population of n neurons may be represented by a binary vector of length n, where each entry represents the presence (1) or absence (0) of a spike. We refer to such a vector as a spike word. For n much greater than 30, the space of 2n spike words becomes so large that effective modeling and analysis of neural data, with their high dimensionality and relatively low sample size, presents a significant computational and theoretical challenge. We study the problem of estimating the discrete entropy of spike word distributions. This is a difficult problem when the sample size is much less than 2n , the number of spike words. Entropy estimation in general is a well-studied problem with a literature spanning statistics, physics, neuro1 A B neurons frequecny time words 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 word distribution 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 Figure 1: Illustrated example of binarized spike responses for n = 3 neurons and corresponding word distribution. (A) The spike responses of n = 3 simultaneously-recorded neurons (green, orange, and purple). Time is discretized into bins of size ?t. A single spike word is a 3 ? 1 binary vector whose entries are 1 or 0 corresponding to whether the neuron spiked or not within the time bin. (B) We model spike words as drawn iid from the word distribution ?, a probability distribution supported on the A = 2n unique binary words. Here we show a schematic ? for the data of panel (A). The spike words (x-axis) occur with varying probability (blue) science, ecology, and engineering, among others [1?7]. We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator which, by incorporating simple a priori information about spike trains via a carefully-chosen prior, can estimate entropy with remarkable accuracy from few samples. Moreover, we exploit the structure of spike trains to compute efficiently on the full space of 2n spike words. We begin by briefly reviewing entropy estimation in general. In Section 2 we discuss the statistics of spike trains and emphasize a statistic, called the synchrony distribution, which we employ in our model. In Section 3 we introduce two novel estimators, the Dirichlet?Bernoulli (DBer) and Dirichlet?Synchrony (DSyn) entropy estimators, and discuss their properties and computation. We ? DBer and H ? DSyn to other entropy estimation techniques in simulation and on neural data, compare H ? DBer drastically outperforms other popular techniques when applied to real neural and show that H data. Finally, we apply our estimators to study synergy across time of a single neuron. 1 Entropy Estimation A N Let x := {xk }k=1 be spike words drawn iid from an unknown word distribution ? := {?i }i=1 . There are A = 2n unique words for a population of n neurons, which we index by {1, 2, . . . , A}. Each sampled word xk is a binary vector of length n, where xki records the presence or absence of a spike from the ith neuron. We wish to estimate the entropy of ?, H(?) = ? A X ?k log ?k , (1) k=1 where ?k > 0 denotes the probability of observing the kth word. A naive method for estimating H is to first estimate ? using the count of observed words nk = PN ? where ? ?k = nk /N . Evali=1 1{xi =k} for each word k. This yields the empirical distribution ?, uating eq. 1 on this estimate yields the ?plugin? estimator, ? plugin = ? H A X ? ?i log ? ?i , (2) i=1 which is also the maximum-likelihood estimator under the multinomial likelihood. Although con? plugin is in general severely biased when N  A. sistent and straightforward to compute, H Indeed, all entropy estimators are biased when N  A [8]. As a result, many techniques for biascorrection have been proposed in the literature [6, 9?18]. Here, we extend the Bayesian approach of [19], focusing in particular on the problem of entropy estimation for simultaneously-recorded neurons. In a Bayesian paradigm, rather than attempting to directly compute and remove the bias for a given estimator, we instead choose a prior distribution over the space of discrete distributions. Nemenman 2 RGC Empirical Synchrony Distribution, 2ms bins 0.7 B 0.6 0.5 RGC data 0.4 NSB prior 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 number of spikes in a word Empirical Synchrony Distribution of Simulated Ising Model and ML Binomial Fit 0.7 proportion of words (of 600000 words) proportion of words (out of 600000 words) A 0.6 0.5 Binomial fit 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 8 Ising 0.4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 number of spikes in a word 8 Figure 2: Sparsity structure of spike word distribution illustrated using the synchrony distribution. (A) The empirical synchrony distribution of 8 simultaneously-recorded retinal ganglion cells (blue). The cells were recorded for 20 minutes and binned with ?t = 2 ms bins. Spike words are overwhelmingly sparse, with w0 by far the most common word. In contrast, we compare the prior empirical synchrony distribution sampled using 106 samples from the NSB prior (? ? Dir(?, . . . , ?) , with p(?) ? A?1 (A? + 1) ? ?1 (? + 1), and ?1 the digamma function) (red). The empirical synchrony distribution shown is averaged across samples. (B) The synchrony distribution of an Ising model (blue) compared to its best binomial fit (red). The Ising model parameters were set randomly by drawing the entries of the matrix J and vector h iid from N(0, 1). A binomial distribution cannot accurately capture the observed synchrony distribution. et al. showed Dirichlet to be priors highly informative about the entropy, and thus a poor prior for Bayesian entropy estimation [19]. To rectify this problem, they introduced the Nemenman?Shafee? Bialek (NSB) estimator, which uses a mixture of Dirichlet distributions to obtain an approximately flat prior over H. As a prior on ?, however, the NSB prior is agnostic about application: all symbols have the same marginal probability under the prior, an assumption that may not hold when the symbols correspond to binary spike words. 2 Spike Statistics and the Synchrony Distribution We discretize neural signals by binning multi-neuron spike trains in time, as illustrated in Fig. 1. At a time t, then, the spike response of a population of n neurons is a binary vector w ~ = (b1 , b2 , . . . , bn ), where bi ? {0, 1} corresponds to the event that the ith neuron spikes within the time window Pn?1 (t, t + ?t). We let w ~ k be that word such that k = i=0 bi 2i . There are a total of A = 2n possible words. For a sufficiently small bin size ?t, spike words are likely to be sparse, and so our strategy will be to choose priors that place high prior probability on sparse words. To quantify sparsity we use the synchrony distribution: the distribution of population spike counts across all words. In Fig. 2 we compare the empirical synchrony distribution for a population of 8 simultaneously-recorded retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) with the prior synchrony distribution under the NSB model. For real data, the synchrony distribution is asymmetric and sparse, concentrating around words with few simultaneous spikes. No more than 4 synchronous spikes are observed in the data. In contrast, under the NSB model all words are equally likely, and the prior synchrony distribution is symmetric and centered around 4. These deviations in the synchrony distribution are noteworthy: beyond quantifying sparseness, the synchrony distribution provides a surprisingly rich characterization of a neural population. Despite its simplicity, the synchrony distribution carries information about the higher-order correlation structure of a population [20,21]. It uniquely specifies distributions ? for which the probability of a word P wk depends only on its spike count [k] = [w ~ k ] := i bi . Equivalently: all words with spike count k, Ek = {w : [w] = k}, have identical probability ?k of occurring. For such a ?, the synchrony 3 distribution ? is given by, ?k = X wi ?Ek   n ?i = ?k . k (3) Different neural models correspond to different synchrony distributions. Consider an independentlyBernoulli spiking model. Under this model, the number of spikes in a word w is distributed binomially, [w] ~ ? Bin(p, n), where p is a uniform spike probability across neurons. The probability of a word wk is given by, P (w ~ k |p) = ?[k] = p[k] (1 ? p)n?[k] , (4) while the probability of observing a word with i spikes is,   n P (Ei |p) = ?i . i 3 (5) Entropy Estimation with Parametric Prior Knowledge Although a synchrony distribution may capture our prior knowledge about the structure of spike patterns, our goal is not to estimate the synchrony distribution itself. Rather, we use it to inform a prior on the space of discrete distributions, the (2n ?1)-dimensional simplex. Our strategy is to use a synchrony distribution G as the base measure of a Dirichlet distribution. We construct a hierarchical model where ? is a mixture of Dir(?G), and counts n of spike train observations are multinomial given ? (See Fig. 3(A). Exploiting the conjugacy of Dirichlet and multinomial, and the convenient symmetries of both the Dirichlet distribution and G, we obtain a computationally efficient Bayes least squares estimator for entropy. Finally, we discuss using empirical estimates of the synchrony distribution ? as a base measure. 3.1 Dirichlet?Bernoulli entropy estimator We model spike word counts n as drawn iid multinomial given the spike word distribution ?. We place a mixture-of-Dirichlets prior on ?, which in general takes the form, n ? Mult(?) ? ? Dir(?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?A ), | {z } (6) (7) ? ~ := (?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?A ) ? P (~ ?), (8) 2n where ?i > 0 are concentration parameters, and P (~ ?) is a prior distribution of our choosing. Due to the conjugacy of Dirichlet and multinomial, the posterior distribution given observations and ? ~ is ?|n, ? ~ ? Dir(?1 + n1 , . . . , ?A + nA ), where ni is the number of observations for the i-th spiking pattern. The posterior expected entropy given ? ~ is given by [22], E[H(?)|~ ?] = ?0 (? + 1) ? A X ?i i=1 where ?0 is the digamma function, and ? = PA i=1 ? ?0 (?i + 1) (9) ?i . For large A, ? ~ is too large to select arbitrarily, and so in practice we center the Dirichlet around a simple, parametric base measure G [23]. We rewrite the vector of concentration parameters as ? ~ ? ?G, where G = Bernoulli(p) is a Bernoulli distribution with spike rate p and ? > 0 is a scalar. The general prior of eq. 7 then takes the form, ? ? Dir(?G) ? Dir(?g1 , ?g2 . . . , ?gA ), where each gk is the probability of the kth word under the base measure, satisfying (10) P gk = 1. We illustrate the dependency structure of this model schematically in Fig. 3. Intuitively, the base measure incorporates the structure of G into the prior by shifting the Dirichlet?s mean. With a base measure G the prior mean satisfies E[?|p] = G|p. Under the NSB model, G is the uniform distribution; thus, when p = 0.5 the Binomial G corresponds exactly to the NSB model. Since 4 in practice choosing a base measure is equivalent to selecting distinct values of the concentration parameter ?i , the posterior mean of entropy under this model has the same form as eq. 9, simply replacing ?k = ?gk . Given hyper-prior distributions P (?) and P (p), we obtain the Bayes least squares estimate, the posterior mean of entropy under our model, ZZ ? DBer = E[H|x] = H E [H|?, p] P (?, p|x) d? dp. (11) ? DBer . Thanks to the closedWe refer to eq. 11 as the Dirichlet?Bernoulli (DBer) entropy estimator, H form expression for the conditional mean eq. 9 and the convenient symmetries of the Bernoulli distribution, the estimator is fast to compute using a 2D numerical integral over the hyperparameters ? and p. 3.1.1 Hyper-priors on ? and p Previous work on Bayesian entropy estimation has focused on Dirichlet priors with scalar, constant concentration parameters ?i = ?. Nemenman et al. [19] noted that these fixed-? priors yield poor estimators for entropy, because p(H|?) is highly concentrated around its mean. To address this problem, [19] proposed a Dirichlet mixture prior on ?, Z P (?) = PDir (?|?)P (?)d?, (12) d where the hyper-prior, P (?) ? d? E[H(?)|?] assures an approximately flat prior distribution over H. We adopt the same strategy here, choosing the prior, n   X n 2 d ? ?1 (??i + 1). (13) E[H(?)|?, p] = ?1 (? + 1) ? P (?) ? i i d? i=0 Entropy estimates are less sensitive to the choice of prior on p. Although we experimented with several priors P on p, in all examples we found that the evidence for p was highly concentrated around p? = N1n ij xij , the maximum (Bernoulli) likelihood estimate for p. In practice, we found that an empirical Bayes procedure, fitting p? from data first and then using the fixed p? to perform the integral eq. 11, performed indistinguishably from a P (p) uniform on [0, 1]. 3.1.2 Computation For large n, the 2n distinct values of ?i render the sum of eq. 9 potentially intractable to compute. We sidestep this exponential scaling of terms by exploiting the redundancy of Bernoulli and binomial distributions. Doing so, we are able to compute eq. 9 without explicitly representing the 2N values of ?i . Under the Bernoulli model, each element gk of the base measure takes the value ?[k]   (eq. 4). Further, Pn there are ni words for which the value of ?i is identical, so that A = i=0 ? ni ?i = ?. Applied to eq. 9, we have, n   X n E[H(?)|?, p] = ?0 (? + 1) ? ?i ?0 (??i + 1). i i=0 For the posterior, the sum takes the same form, except that A = n + ?, and the mean is given by, E[H(?)|?, p, x] = ?0 (n + ? + 1) ? A X ni + ??[i] i=1 = ?0 (n + ? + 1) ? X ni + ??[i] i?I n X ?? i=0 5 n+? ?0 (ni + ??[i] + 1) ?0 (ni + ??[i] + 1) n+?   n ? i ?i i ?n ?0 (??i + 1), n+? (14) words B N neurons A prior distribution 0 0 0 0 most likely 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 less likely 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 even less likely 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 less likely still 1 1 1 1 least likely C entropy data , , , , Figure 3: Model schematic and intuition for Dirichlet?Bernoulli entropy estimation. (A) Graphical model for Dirichlet?Bernoulli entropy estimation. The Bernoulli base measure G depends on the spike rate parameter p. In turn, G acts as the mean of a Dirichlet prior over ?. The scalar Dirichlet concentration parameter ? determines the variability of the prior around the base measure. (B) The set of possible spike words for n = 4 neurons. Although easy to enumerate for this small special case, the number of words increases exponentially with n. In order to compute with this large set, we assume a prior distribution with a simple equivalence class structure: a priori, all words with the same number of synchronous spikes (outlined in blue) occur with equal probability. We then need only n parameters, the synchrony distribution of eq. 3, to specify the distribution. (C) We center a Dirichlet distribution on a model of the synchrony distribution. The symmetries of the count and Dirichlet distributions allow us to compute without explicitly representing all A words. where I = {k : nk > 0}, the set of observed characters, and n ? i is the count of observed words with i spikes (i.e., observations of the equivalence class Ei ). Note that eq. 14 is much more computationally tractable than the mathematically equivalent form given immediately above it. Thus, careful bookkeeping allows us to efficiently evaluate eq. 9 and, in turn, eq. 11.1 3.2 Empirical Synchrony Distribution as a Base Measure While the Bernoulli base measure captures the sparsity structure of multi-neuron recordings, it also imposes unrealistic independence assumptions. In general, the synchrony distribution can capture correlation structure that cannot be represented by a Bernoulli model. For example, in Fig. 2B, a maximum likelihood Bernoulli fit fails to capture the sparsity structure of a simulated Ising model. We might address this by choosing a more flexible parametric base measure. However, since the dimensionality of ? scales only linearly with the number of neurons, the empirical synchrony distribution (ESD), N 1 X ? ?i = 1{[xj ]=i} , (15) N j=1 converges quickly even when the sample size is inadequate for estimating the full ?. ? This suggests an empirical Bayes procedure where we use the ESD as a base measure (take G = ?) for entropy estimation. Computation proceeds exactly as in Section 3.1.2 with the Bernoulli base  measure replaced by the ESD by setting gk = ?k and ?i = ?i / mi . The resulting Dirichlet? Synchrony (DSyn) estimator may incorporate more varied sparsity and correlation structures into its ? DBer (see Fig. 4), although it depends on an estimate of the synchrony distribution. prior than H 4 Simulations and Comparisons ? DBer and H ? DSyn to the Nemenman?Shafee?Bialek (NSB) [19] and Best Upper Bound We compared H ? DSyn , we regular(BUB) entropy estimators [8] for several simulated and real neural datasets. For H 1 For large n, the binomial coefficient of eq. 14 may be difficult to compute. By writing it in terms of the Bernoulli probability eq. 5, it may be computed using the Normal approximation to the Binomial. 6 B 2 1.8 8 1.6 7 1.4 Entropy (nats) 9 6 5 0.3 4 3 2 0.2 10 10 2 3 N 10 1.2 1 0.8 0.1 0 Power Law Synchrony Distribution (30 Neurons) plugin DBer DSyn BUB NSB 0.6 0 10 20 number of spikes per word 10 4 30 10 5 0.4 6 frequency Bimodal Synchrony Distribution (30 Neurons) frequency Entropy (nats) A 10 10 2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 10 3 N 10 0 10 20 number of spikes per word 10 4 10 5 30 6 ? DBer , H ? DSyn , H ? NSB , H ? BUB , and H ? plugin as a function of sample size for Figure 4: Convergence of H two simulated examples of 30 neurons. Binary word data are drawn from two specified synchrony distributions (insets). Error bars indicate variability of the estimator over independent samples (?1 standard deviation). (A) Data drawn from a bimodal synchrony distribution with peaks at 0 spikes   1 ?4(i?2n/3)2 and 10 spikes ?i = e?2i + 10 e . (B) Data generated from a power-law synchrony distribution (?i ? i?3 ). A B RGC Spike Data (27 Neurons) 1 ms bins 3.5 Entropy (nats) 102 frequency plugin DBer DSyn BUB NSB 0.3 103 10 0.2 8 0.1 0 N 0.2 12 0.4 frequency Entropy (nats) 14 2.5 1.5 10 ms bins 16 3 2 RGC Spike Data (27 neurons) 18 0 10 20 number of spikes per word 104 0 6 0 10 20 30 number of spikes per word 102 105 0.1 103 N 104 105 ? DBer , H ? DSyn , H ? NSB , H ? BUB , and H ? plugin as a function of sample size for Figure 5: Convergence of H 27 simultaneously-recorded retinal ganglion cells (RGC). The two figures show the same RGC data binned and binarized at ?t = 1 ms (A) and 10 ms (B). The error bars, axes, and color scheme are as ? plugin , H ? DSyn and H ? DBer both show in Fig. 4. While all estimators improve upon the performance of H excellent performance for very low sample sizes (10?s of samples). (inset) The empirical synchrony distribution estimated from 120 minutes of data. 1 ized the estimated ESD by adding a pseudo-count of K , where K is the number of unique words observed in the sample. In Fig. 4 we simulated data from two distinct synchrony distribution mod? DSyn converges the fastest with increasing sample size els. As is expected, among all estimators, H ? N . The HDBer estimator converges more slowly, as the Bernoulli base measure is not capable of capturing the correlation structure of the simulated synchrony distributions. In Fig. 5, we show convergence performance on increasing subsamples of 27 simultaneously-recorded retinal ganglion ? DBer and H ? DSyn show excellent performance. Although the true word distribution is cells. Again, H not described by a synchrony distribution, the ESD proves an excellent regularizer for the space of distributions, even for very small sample sizes. 5 Application: Quantification of Temporal Dependence We can gain insight into the coding of a single neural time-series by quantifying the amount of information a single time bin contains about another. The correlation function (Fig. 6A) is the statistic most widely used for this purpose. However, correlation cannot capture higher-order dependencies. In neuroscience, mutual information is used to quantify higher-order temporal structure [24]. A re7 B delayed mutual information C growing block mutual information 6 bits auto-correlation function 4 2 spike rate A growing block mutual information 0 20 spk/s D 1 5 10 15 information gain bits 10 ms 0.5 0 dMI 5 10 lags (ms) 15 ? DBer . (A) The auto-correlation Figure 6: Quantifying temporal dependence of RGC coding using H function of a single retinal ganglion neuron. Correlation does not capture the full temporal dependence. We bin with ?t = 1 ms bins. (B) Schematic definition of time delayed mutual information (dMI), and block mutual information. The information gain of the sth bin is ?(s) = I(Xt ; Xt+1:t+s ) ? I(Xt ; Xt+1:t+s?1 ). (C) Block mutual information estimate as a function of growing block size. Note that the estimate is monotonically increasing, as expected, since adding new bins can only increase the mutual information. (D) Information gain per bin assuming temporal independence (dMI), and with difference between block mutual informations (?(s)). We observe synergy for the time bins in the 5 to 10 ms range. lated quantity, the delayed mutual information (dMI) provides an indication of instantaneous dependence: dM I(s) = I(Xt ; Xt+s ), where Xt is a binned spike train, and I(X; Y ) = H(X)?H(X|Y ) denotes the mutual information. However, this quantity ignores any temporal dependences in the intervening times: Xt+1 , . . . , Xt+s?1 . An alternative approach allows us to consider such dependences: the ?block mutual information? ?(s) = I(Xt ; Xt+1:t+s ) ? I(Xt ; Xt+1:t+s?1 ) (Fig. 6B,C,D) The relationship between ?(s) and dM I(s) provides insight about the information contained in the recent history of the signal. If each time bin is conditionally independent given Xt , then ?(s) = dM I(s). In contrast, if ?(s) < dM I(s), instantaneous dependence is partially explained by history. Finally, ?(s) > dM I(s) implies that the joint distribution of Xt , Xt+1 , . . . , Xt+s contains more ? DBer entropy information about Xt than the joint distribution of Xt and Xt+s alone. We use the H estimator to compute mutual information (by computing H(X) and H(X|Y )) accurately for ? 15 bins of history. Surprisingly, individual retinal ganglion cells code synergistically in time (Fig. 6D). 6 Conclusions ? DBer and H ? DSyn . These estimators use a We introduced two novel Bayesian entropy estimators, H hierarchical mixture-of-Dirichlets prior with a base measure designed to integrate a priori knowledge about spike trains into the model. By choosing base measures with convenient symmetries, we simultaneously sidestepped potentially intractable computations in the high-dimensional space of spike words. It remains to be seen whether these symmetries, as exemplified in the structure of the synchrony distribution, are applicable across a wide range of neural data. Finally, however, we ? DSyn , perform exceptionally well in showed several examples in which these estimators, especially H application to neural data. A MATLAB implementation of the estimators will be made available at https://github.com/pillowlab/CDMentropy. Acknowledgments We thank E. J. Chichilnisky, A. M. Litke, A. Sher and J. Shlens for retinal data. This work was supported by a Sloan Research Fellowship, McKnight Scholar?s Award, and NSF CAREER Award IIS-1150186 (JP). 8 References [1] K. H. Schindler, M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, and J. Bhattacharya. Causality detection based on informationtheoretic approaches in time series analysis. Physics Reports, 441:1?46, 2007. [2] A. R?enyi. On measures of dependence. Acta Mathematica Hungarica, 10(3-4):441?451, 9 1959. [3] C. Chow and C. Liu. Approximating discrete probability distributions with dependence trees. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 14(3):462?467, 1968. [4] A. Chao and T. Shen. Nonparametric estimation of Shannon?s index of diversity when there are unseen species in sample. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 10(4):429?443, 2003. [5] P. Grassberger. Estimating the information content of symbol sequences and efficient codes. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 35(3):669?675, 1989. [6] S. Ma. Calculation of entropy from data of motion. Journal of Statistical Physics, 26(2):221?240, 1981. [7] S. Panzeri, R. Senatore, M. A. Montemurro, and R. S. Petersen. Correcting for the sampling bias problem in spike train information measures. J Neurophysiol, 98(3):1064?1072, Sep 2007. [8] L. Paninski. Estimation of entropy and mutual information. Neural Computation, 15:1191?1253, 2003. [9] W. Bialek, F. Rieke, R. R. de Ruyter van Steveninck, R., and D. Warland. Reading a neural code. Science, 252:1854?1857, 1991. [10] R. Strong, S. Koberle, de Ruyter van Steveninck R., and W. Bialek. Entropy and information in neural spike trains. Physical Review Letters, 80:197?202, 1998. [11] L. Paninski. Estimation of entropy and mutual information. Neural Computation, 15:1191?1253, 2003. [12] R. Barbieri, L. Frank, D. Nguyen, M. Quirk, V. Solo, M. Wilson, and E. Brown. Dynamic analyses of information encoding in neural ensembles. Neural Computation, 16:277?307, 2004. [13] M. Kennel, J. Shlens, H. Abarbanel, and E. Chichilnisky. Estimating entropy rates with Bayesian confidence intervals. Neural Computation, 17:1531?1576, 2005. [14] J. Victor. Approaches to information-theoretic analysis of neural activity. Biological theory, 1(3):302? 316, 2006. [15] J. Shlens, M. B. Kennel, H. D. I. Abarbanel, and E. J. Chichilnisky. Estimating information rates with confidence intervals in neural spike trains. Neural Computation, 19(7):1683?1719, Jul 2007. [16] V. Q. Vu, B. Yu, and R. E. Kass. Coverage-adjusted entropy estimation. Statistics in medicine, 26(21):4039?4060, 2007. [17] V. Q. Vu, B. Yu, and R. E. Kass. Information in the nonstationary case. Neural Computation, 21(3):688? 703, 2009, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/neco.2008.01-08-700. PMID: 18928371. [18] E. Archer, I. M. Park, and J. Pillow. Bayesian estimation of discrete entropy with mixtures of stickbreaking priors. In P. Bartlett, F. Pereira, C. Burges, L. Bottou, and K. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2024?2032. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. [19] I. Nemenman, F. Shafee, and W. Bialek. Entropy and inference, revisited. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14, pages 471?478. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2002. [20] M. Okun, P. Yger, S. L. Marguet, F. Gerard-Mercier, A. Benucci, S. Katzner, L. Busse, M. Carandini, and K. D. Harris. Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex. The Journal of Neuroscience, 32(48):17108?17119, 2012, http://www.jneurosci.org/content/32/48/17108.full.pdf+html. [21] G. Tka?cik, O. Marre, T. Mora, D. Amodei, M. J. Berry II, and W. Bialek. The simplest maximum entropy model for collective behavior in a neural network. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2013(03):P03011, 2013. [22] D. Wolpert and D. Wolf. Estimating functions of probability distributions from a finite set of samples. Physical Review E, 52(6):6841?6854, 1995. [23] I. M. Park, E. Archer, K. Latimer, and J. W. Pillow. Universal models for binary spike patterns using centered Dirichlet processes. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2013. [24] A. Panzeri, S. Treves, S. Schultz, and E. Rolls. On decoding the responses of a population of neurons from short time windows. Neural Computation, 11:1553?1577, 1999. 9
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Inferring neural population dynamics from multiple partial recordings of the same neural circuit Srinivas C. Turaga?1,2 , Lars Buesing1 , Adam M. Packer2 , Henry Dalgleish2 , Noah Pettit2 , Michael H?ausser2 and Jakob H. Macke3,4 1 2 Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London Wolfson Institute for Biomedical Research, University College London 3 Max-Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics, T?ubingen 4 Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, T?ubingen Abstract Simultaneous recordings of the activity of large neural populations are extremely valuable as they can be used to infer the dynamics and interactions of neurons in a local circuit, shedding light on the computations performed. It is now possible to measure the activity of hundreds of neurons using 2-photon calcium imaging. However, many computations are thought to involve circuits consisting of thousands of neurons, such as cortical barrels in rodent somatosensory cortex. Here we contribute a statistical method for ?stitching? together sequentially imaged sets of neurons into one model by phrasing the problem as fitting a latent dynamical system with missing observations. This method allows us to substantially expand the population-sizes for which population dynamics can be characterized?beyond the number of simultaneously imaged neurons. In particular, we demonstrate using recordings in mouse somatosensory cortex that this method makes it possible to predict noise correlations between non-simultaneously recorded neuron pairs. 1 Introduction The computation performed by a neural circuit is a product of the properties of single neurons in the circuit and their connectivity. Simultaneous measurements of the collective dynamics of all neurons in a neural circuit will help us understand their function and test theories of neural computation. However, experimental limitations make it difficult to measure the joint activity of large populations of neurons. Recent progress in 2-photon calcium imaging now allows for recording of the activity of hundreds of neurons nearly simultaneously [1, 2]. However, in neocortex where circuits or subnetworks can span thousands of neurons, current imaging techniques are still inadequate. We present a computational method to more effectively leverage currently available experimental technology. To illustrate our method consider the following example: A whisker barrel in the mouse somatosensory cortex consists of a few thousand neurons responding to stimuli from one whisker. Modern microscopes can only image a small fraction?a few hundred neurons?of this circuit. But since nearby neurons couple strongly to one another [3], by moving the microscope to nearby locations, one can expect to image neurons which are directly coupled to the first population of neurons. In this paper we address the following question: Could we characterize the joint dynamics of the first and second populations of neurons, even though they were not imaged simultaneously? Can we estimate correlations in variability across the two populations? Surprisingly, the answer is yes. We propose a statistical tool for ?stitching? together measurements from multiple partial observations of the same neural circuit. We show that we can predict the correlated dynamics of large ? [email protected] 1 a imaging session 1 b imaging session 2 couplings (A) simultaneously measured pairs non-simultaneously measured pairs Figure 1: Inferring neuronal interactions from non-simultaneous measurements. a) If two subsets of a neural population can only be recorded from in two separate imaging sessions, can we infer the connectivity across the sub-populations (red connections)? b) We want to infer the functional connectivity matrix, and in particular those entries which correspond to pairs of neurons that were not simultaneously measured (red off-diagonal block). While the two sets of neurons are pictured as non-overlapping here, we will also be interested in the case of partially overlapping measurements. populations of neurons even if many of the neurons have not been imaged simultaneously. In sensory cortical neurons, where large variability in the evoked response is observed [4, 5], our model can successfully predict the magnitude of (so-called) noise correlations between non-simultaneously recorded neurons. Our method can help us build data-driven models of large cortical circuits and help test theories of circuit function. Related recent research. Numerous studies have addressed the question of inferring functional connectivity from 2-photon imaging data [6, 7] or electrophysiological measurements [8, 9, 10, 11]. These approaches include detailed models of the relationship between fluorescence measurements, calcium transients and spiking activity [6] as well as model-free information-theoretic approaches [7]. However, these studies do not attempt to infer functional connections between non-simultaneously observed neurons. On the other hand, a few studies have presented statistical methods for dealing with sub-sampled observations of neural activity or connectivity, but these approaches are not applicable to our problem: A recent study [12] presented a method for predicting noise correlations between non-simultaneously recorded neurons, but this method requires the strong assumption that noise correlations are monotonically related to stimulus correlations. [13] presented an algorithm for latent GLMs, but this algorithm does not scale to the population sizes of interest here. [14] presented a method for inferring synaptic connections on dendritic trees from sub-sampled voltage observations. In this setting, one typically obtains a measurement from each location every few imaging frames, and it is therefore possible to interpolate these observations. In contrast, in our application, imaging sessions are of much longer duration than the time-scale of neural dynamics. Finally, [15] presented a statistical framework for reconstructing anatomical connectivity by superimposing partial connectivity matrices derived from fluorescent markers. 2 Methods Our goal is to estimate a joint model of the activity of a neural population which captures the correlation structure and stimulus selectivity of the population from partial observations of the population activity. We model the problem as fitting a latent dynamical system with missing observations. In principle, any latent dynamical system model [13] can be used?here we demonstrate our main point using the simple linear gaussian dynamical system for its computational tractability. 2.1 A latent dynamical system model for combining multiple measurements of population activity Linear dynamics. We denote by xk the activity of N neurons in the population on recording session k, and model its dynamics as linear with Gaussian innovations in discrete time, 2 xkt = Axkt?1 + Bukt + ?t , where ?t ? N (0, Q). (1) Here, the N ? N coupling matrix A models correlations across neurons and time. An entry Aij being non-zero implies that activity of neuron j at time t has a statistical influence on the activity of neuron i on the next time-step t + 1, but does not necessarily imply a direct synaptic connection. For this reason, entries of A are usually referred to as the ?functional? (rather than anatomical) couplings or connectivity of the population. The entries of A also shape trial-to-trial variability which is correlated across neurons, i.e. noise-correlations. Further, we include an external, observed stimulus ukt (of dimension Nu ) as well as receptive fields B (of size N ? Nu ) which model the stimulus dependence of the population activity. We model neural noise (which could include the effect of other influences not modeled explicitly) using zero-mean innovations ?t , which are Gaussian i.i.d. with covariance matrix Q, assuming the latter to be diagonal (see below for how our framework also can allow for correlated noise). The mean x0 and covariance Q0 of the initial state xk0 were chosen such that the system is stationary (apart from the stimulus contribution Bukt ), i.e. x0 = 0 and Q0 satisfies the Lyapunov equation Q0 = AQ0 A> + Q. For the sake of simplicity, we work directly in the space of continuous valued imaging measurements (rather than on the underlying spiking activity), i.e. xkt models the relative calcium fluorescence signal. While this model does not capture the nonlinear and non-Gaussian cascade of neural couplings, calcium dynamics, fluorescence measurements and imaging noise [16, 6], we will show that this model nevertheless is able to predict correlations across non-simultaneously observed pairs of neurons. Incomplete observations. In each imaging session k we measure the activity of Nk neurons simultaneously, where Nk is smaller than the total number of neurons N . Since these measurements are noisy and incomplete observations of the full state vector, the true underlying activity of all neurons xkt is treated as a latent variable. The vector of the Nk measurements at time t in session k is denoted as ytk and is related to the underlying population activity by ytk = C k (xkt + d + t ) t ? N (0, R), (2) where the ?measurement matrix? C k is of size Nk ? N . Further assuming that the recording sites correspond to identified cells (which typically is the case for 2-photon calcium imaging), we can k assume C k to be known and of the following form: The element Cij is 1 if neuron j of the population is being recorded from on session k (as the i-th recording site); the remaining elements of C k are 0. The measurement noise is modeled as a Gaussian random variable t with covariance R, and the parameter d captures a constant offset. One can also envisage using our model with dimensions of xkt which are never observed? such latent dimensions would then model correlated noise or the input from unobserved neurons into the population [17, 18]. Fitting the model. Our goal is to estimate the parameters (A, B, Q, R) of the latent linear dynamical system (LDS) model described by equations (1) and (2) from experimental data. One can learn these parameters using the standard expectation maximization (EM) algorithm that finds a local maximum of the log-likelihood of the observed data [19]. The E-step can be performed via Kalman Smoothing (with a different C k for each session). In the M-step, the updates for A, B and Q are as in standard linear dynamical systems, and the updates for R and d are element-wise given by  1 X k k ?j yt,?k ? xkt,j j T nj k,t E 1 X kD k = ?j (yt,?k ? xkt,j ? dj )2 , j T nj dj = Rjj k,t where h?i denotes the expectation over the posterior distribution calculated in the E-step, and T is the number of time steps in each recording P session (assumed to be the same for each session for k the sake of simplicity). Furthermore, ?kj := i Cij is 1 if neuron j was imaged in session k and 0 P k otherwise, nj = k ?j is the total number of sessions in which neuron j was imaged and ?jk is the index of the recording site of neuron j during session k. To improve the computational efficiency of the fitting procedure as well as to avoid shallow local maxima, we used a variant of online-EM with randomly selected mini-batches [20] followed by full batch EM for fine-tuning. 3 2.2 Details of simulated and experimental data Simulated data. We simulated a population of 60 neurons which were split into 3 pools (?cell types?) of 20 neurons each, with both connection probability and strength being cell-type specific. Within each pool, pairs were coupled with probability 50% and random weights, cell-types one and two had excitatory connections onto the other cells, and type three had weak but dense inhibitory couplings (see Figure 2a, top left). Coupling weights were truncated at ?0.2. The 4-dimensional external stimulus was delivered into the first pool. On average, 24% of the variance of each neuron was noise, 2% driven by the stimulus, 25% by self-couplings and a further 49% by network-interactions. After shuffling the ordering of neurons (resulting in the connectivity matrix displayed in Fig. 2a, top middle), we simulated K = 10 trials of length T = 1000 samples from the population. We then pretended that the population was imaged in two sessions with non-overlapping subsets of 30 neurons each (Figure 2a, green outlined blocks) of K = 5 trials each, and that observation noise  was uncorrelated and very small, std(ii ) = 0.006. Experimental data. We also applied the stitching method to two calcium imaging datasets recorded in the somatosensory cortex of awake or anesthetized mice. We imaged calcium signals in the superficial layers of mouse barrel cortex (S1) in-vivo using 2-photon laser scanning microscopy [1]. A genetically encoded calcium indicator (GCaMP6s) was virally expressed, driven pan-neuronally by the human-synapsin promoter, in the C2 whisker barrel and the activity of about 100-200 neurons was imaged simultaneously in-vivo at about 3Hz, compatible with the slow timescales of the calcium dynamics revealed by GCaMP6s. The anesthetized dataset was collected during an experiment in which the C2 whisker of an anesthetized mouse was repeatedly flicked randomly in one of three different directions (rostrally, caudally or ventrally). About 200 neurons were imaged for about 27min at a depth of 240?m in the C2 whisker barrel. The awake dataset was collected while an awake animal was performing a whisker flick detection task. In this session, about 80 neurons were imaged for about 55min at a depth of 190?m, also in the C2 whisker barrel. Regions of interest (ROI) corresponding to putative GCaMP expressing soma (and in some instances isolated neuropil) were manually defined and the time-series corresponding to the calcium signal for each such ROI was extracted. The calcium time-series were high-pass filtered with a time-constant of 1s. 2.3 Quantifying and comparing model performance Fictional imaging scenario in experimental data. To evaluate how well stitching works on real data, we created a fictional imaging scenario. We pretended that the neurons, which were in reality simultaneously imaged, were not imaged in one session but instead were ?imaged? in two subsets in two different sessions. The subsets corresponding to different ?sessions? c = 60% of the neurons, meaning that the subsets overlapped and a few neurons in common. We also experimented with c = 50% as in our simulation above, but failed to get good performance without any overlapping neurons. We imagined that we spent the first 40% of the time ?imaging? subset 1 and the second 40% of the time ?imaging? subset 2. The final 20% of the data was withheld for use as the test set. We then used our stitching method to predict pairwise correlations from the fictional imaging session. Upper and lower bounds on performance. We wanted to benchmark how well our method is doing both compared to the theoretical optimum and to a conventional approach. On synthetic data, we can use the ground-truth parameters as the optimal model. In lieu of ground-truth on the real data, we fit a ?fully observed? model to the simulatenous imaging data of all neurons (which would be impossible of course in practice, but is possible in our fictional imaging scenario). We also analyzed the data using a conventional, ?naive? approach in which we separately fit dynamical system models to each of the two imaging sessions and then combined their parameters. We set coefficients of nonsimultaneously recorded pairs to 0 and averaged coefficients for neurons which were part of both imaging sessions (in the c = 60% scenario). The ?fully observed? and the ?naive? models constitute an upper and lower bound respectively on our performance. Certainly we can not expect to do better at predicting correlations, than if we had observed all neurons simultaneously. 3 Results We tested our ability to stitch multiple observations into one coherent model which is capable of predicting statistics of the joint dynamics, such as correlations across non-simultaneously imaged 4 a true couplings naive couplings b noise correlations stitched 0.5 naive estimate shuffle 0 ?0.5 ?0.5 stitched estimate stitched couplings true stitching estimate c 0 true 0.5 off-diagonal coupling unshuffle blocks stitched 0.2 unshuffle 0 ?0.2 ?0.2 0 true 0.2 Figure 2: Noise correlations and coupling parameters can be well recovered in a simulated dataset. a) A coupling matrix for 60 neurons arranged in 3 blocks was generated (true coupling matrix) and shuffled. We simulated the imaging of non-overlapping subsets of 30 neurons each in two sessions. Couplings were recovered using a ?naive? strategy and using our proposed ?stitching? method. b) Noise correlations estimated by our stitching method match true noise correlations well. c) Couplings between non-simultaneously imaged neuron pairs (red off-diagonal block) are estimated well by our method. neuron pairs. We first apply our method to a synthetic dataset to explain its properties, and then demonstrate that it works for real calcium imaging measurements from the mouse somatosensory cortex. 3.1 Inferring correlations and model parameters in a simulated population It might seem counterintuitive that one can infer the cross-couplings, and hence noise-correlations, between neurons observed in separate sessions. An intuition for why this might work nevertheless can gained by considering the artificial scenario of a network of linearly interacting neurons driven by Gaussian noise: Suppose that during the first recording session we image half of these neurons. We can fit a linear state-space model to the data in which the other, unobserved half of the population constitutes the latent space. Given enough data, the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters (which is consistent) lets us identify the true joint dynamics of the whole population up to an invertible linear transformation of the unobserved dimensions [21]. After the second imaging session, where we image the second (and previously unobserved) half of the population, we can identify this linear transformation, and thus identify all model parameters uniquely, in particular the cross-couplings. To demonstrate this intuition, we simulated such an artificial dataset (described in 2.2) and describe here the results of the stitching procedure. Recovering the coupling matrix. Our stitching method was able to recover the true coupling matrix, including the off-diagonal blocks which correspond to pairs of neurons that were not imaged simultaneously (see red-outlined blocks in 2a, bottom middle). As expected, recovery was better for couplings across observed pairs (correlation between true and estimated parameters 0.95, excluding self-couplings) than for non-simultaneously recorded pairs (Figure 2c; correlation 0.73). With the ?naive? approach couplings between non-simultaneously observed pairs cannot be recovered, and even for simultaneously observed pairs, the estimate of couplings is biased (correlation 0.75). Recovering noise correlations. We also quantified the degree to which we are able to predict statistics of the joint dynamics of the whole network, in particular noise correlations across pairs of neurons that were never observed simultaneously. We calculated noise correlations by computing correlations in variability of neural activity after subtracting contributions due to the stimulus. We found that the stitching method was able to accurately recover the noise-correlations of nonsimultaneously recorded pairs (correlation between predicted and true correlations was 0.92; Figure 2b). In fact, we generally found the prediction of correlations to be more accurate than prediction 5 fully observed stitched naive b fully observed 0.5 0 d correlations c ?0.5 ?0.5 0.3 0.2 0 0.5 Naive Stitched partially observed couplings a 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Figure 3: Examples of correlation and coupling recovery in the anesthetized calcium imaging experiments. a) Coupling matrices fit to calcium signal using all neurons (fully observed) or fit after ?imaging? two overlapping subsets of 60% neurons each (stitched and naive). The naive approach is unable to estimate coupling terms for ?non-simultaneously imaged? neurons, so these are set to zero. b) Scatter plot of coupling terms for ?non-simultaneously imaged? neuron pairs estimated using the stitching method vs the fully observed estimates. c) Correlations predicted using the coupling matrices. d) Scatter plot of correlations in c for ?non-simultaneously imaged? neuron pairs estimated using the stitching and the naive approaches. of the underlying coupling parameters. In contrast, a naive approach would not be able to estimate noise correlations between non-simultaneously observed pairs. (We note that, as the stimulus drive in this simulation was very weak, inferring noise correlations from stimulus correlations [12] would be impossible). Predicting unobserved neural activity. Given activity measurements from a subset of neurons, our method can predict the activity of neurons in the unobserved subset. This prediction can be calculated by doing inference in the resulting LDS, i.e. by calculating the posterior mean ?k1:T = k , hk1:T ) and looking at those entries of ?k1:T which correspond to unobserved neurons. E(xk1:T |y1:T On our simulated data, we found that this prediction was strongly correlated with the underlying ground-truth activity (average correlation 0.70 ? 0.01 s.e.m across neurons, using a separate testset which was not used for parameter fitting.). The upper bound for this prediction metric can be obtained by using the ground-truth parameters to calculate the posterior mean. Use of this groundtruth model resulted in a performance of 0.82 ? 0.01. In contrast, the ?naive? approach can only utilize the stimulus, but not the activity of the observed population for prediction and therefore only achieved a correlation of 0.23 ? 0.01. 3.2 Inferring correlations in mouse somatosensory cortex Next, we applied our stitching method to two real datasets: anesthetized and awake (described in Section 2.2). We demonstrate that it can predict correlations between non-simultaneously accessed neuron pairs with accuracy approaching that of the upper bound (?fully observed? model trained on all neurons), and substantially better than the lower bound ?naive? model. Example results. Figure 3a displays coupling matrices of a population consisting of the 50 most correlated neurons in the anesthetized dataset (see Section 2.2 for details) estimated using all three methods. Our stitching method yielded a coupling matrix with structure similar to the fully observed model (Figure 3a, central panel), even in the off-diagonal blocks which correspond to nonsimultaneously recorded pairs. In contrast, the naive method, by definition, is unable to infer couplings for non-simultaneously recorded pairs, and therefore over-estimates the magnitude of observed couplings (Figure 3a, right panel). Even for non-simultaneously recorded pairs, the stitched model predicted couplings which were correlated with the fully observed predictions (Figure 3b, correlation 0.38). 6 a predicting correlations b predicting neural activity 0.2 0.4 correlation anesthetized 0.6 0.6 20 40 60 80 100 0.8 0 0.8 0.4 full obs (UB) stitched naive (LB) 0.2 1 predicting couplings 0.8 0.8 0 c 1 0.4 1 20 40 60 80 0.2 0 100 60 80 80 100 awake 40 60 0.4 0.2 20 40 0.6 0.4 0.4 20 0.8 0.6 0.6 1 20 40 60 80 0.2 20 40 60 80 population size Figure 4: Recovering correlations and coupling parameters in a real calcium imaging experiments. 100 neurons were simultaneously imaged in an anesthetized mouse (top row) and an awake mouse (bottom row). Random populations of these neurons, ranging in size from 10 to 100 were chosen and split into two slightly overlapping sub-sets each containing 60% of the neurons. The activity of these sub-sets were imagined to be ?imaged? in two separate ?imaging? sessions (see Section 2.2). a) Pairwise correlations for ?non-simultaneously imaged? neuron pairs estimated by the ?naive? and our ?stitched? strategies compared to correlations predicted by a model fit to all neurons (?full obs?). b) Accuracy of predicting the activity of one sub-set of neurons, given the activities of the other sub-set of neurons. c) Comparison of estimated couplings for ?non-simultaneously imaged? neuron pairs to those estimated using the ?fully observed? model. Note that true coupling terms are unavailable here. However, of greater interest is how well our model can recover pairwise correlations between nonsimultaneously measured neuron pairs. We found that our stitching method, but not the naive method, was able to accurately reconstruct these correlations (Figure 3c). As expected, the naive method strongly under-estimated correlations in the non-simultaneously recorded blocks, as it can only model stimulus-correlations but not noise-correlations across neurons. 1 In contrast, our stitching method predicted correlations well, matching those of the fully observed model (correlation 0.84 for stitchLDS, 0.15 for naiveLDS, figure 3d). Summary results across multiple populations. Here, we investigate the robustness of our findings. We drew random neuronal populations of sizes ranging from 10 to 80 (for awake) or 100 (for anesthetized) from the full datasets. For each population, we fit three models (fully observed, stitch, naive) and compared their correlations, parameters and activity cross-prediction accuracy. We repeated this process 20 times for each population size and dataset (anesthetized/awake) to characterize the variability. We found that for both datasets, the correlations predicted by the stitching method for non-simultaneously recorded pairs were similar to the fully observed ones, and that this similarity is almost independent of population size (Figure 4a). In fact, for the awake data (in which the overall level of correlation was higher), the correlation matrices were extremely similar (lower panel). The stitching method also substantially outperformed the naive approach, for which the similarity was lower by a factor of about 2. We compared the accuracy of the models at predicting the neural activity of one subset of neurons given the stimulus and the activity of the other subset (Figure 4b). We find that our model makes significantly better predictions than the lower bound naive model, whose performance comes from modeling the stimulus and neurons in the overlap between both subsets. Indeed for the more active and correlated awake dataset, predictions are nearly as good as those of the fully observed 1 The naive approach also over-estimated correlations within each view. This is a consequence of biases resulting from averaging couplings across views for neurons in the overlap between the two fictional sessions. 7 model. We also found that prediction accuracy increased slightly with population size, perhaps since a larger population provides more neurons from which the activity of the other subset can be predicted. Apparently, this gain in accuracy from additional neurons outweighed any potential drop in performance resulting from increased potential for over-fitting on larger populations. While we have no access to the true cross-couplings for the real data, we can nonetheless compare the couplings from our stitched model to those estimated by the fully observed model. We find that the stitching model is indeed able to estimate couplings that correlate positively with the fully observed couplings, even for non-simultaneously imaged neuron pairs. Interestingly, this correlation drops with increasing population size, perhaps due to possible near degeneracy of parameters for large systems. 4 Discussion It has long been appreciated that a dynamical system can be reconstructed from observations of only a subset of its variables [22, 23, 21]. These theoretical results suggest that while only measuring the activity of one population of neurons, we can infer the activity of a second neural population that strongly interacts with the first, up to re-parametrization. Here, we go one step further. By later measuring the activity of the second population, we recover the true parametrization allowing us to predict aspects of the joint dynamics of the two populations, such as noise correlations. Our essential finding is that we can put these theoretical insights to work using a simple linear dynamical system model that ?stitches? together data from non-simultaneously recorded but strongly interacting populations of neurons. We applied our method to analyze 2-photon population calcium imaging measurements from the superficial layers of the somatosensory cortex of both anesthetized and awake mice, and found that our method was able to successfully combine data not accessed simultaneously. In particular, this approach allowed us to accurately predict correlations even for pairs of non-simultaneously recorded neurons. In this paper, we focused our demonstration to stitching together two populations of neurons. Our framework can be generalized to more than two populations, however it remains to be empirically seen how well larger numbers of populations can be combined. An experimental variable of interest is the degree of overlap (shared neurons) between different populations of neurons. We found that some overlap was critical for stitching to work, and increasing overlap improves stitching performance. Given a fixed imaging time budget, determining a good trade-off between overlap and total coverage is an intriguing open problem in experimental design. We emphasise that our linear gaussian dynamical system provides only a statistical description of the observed data. However, even this simple model makes accurate predictions of correlations between non-simultaneously observed neurons. Nevertheless, more realistic models [16, 6] can help improve the accuracy of these predictions and disentangle the contributions of spiking activity, calcium dynamics, fluorescence measurements and imaging noise to the observed statistics. Similarly, better priors on neural connectivity [24] might improve reconstruction performance. Indeed, we found in unreported simulations that using a sparsifying penalty on the connectivity matrix [6] improves parameter estimates slightly. We note that our model can easily be extended to model potential common input from neurons which are never observed [13] as a low dimensional LDS [17, 18]. The simultaneous measurement of the activity of all neurons in a neural circuit will shed much light on the nature of neural computation. While there is much progress in developing faster imaging modalities, there are fundamental physical limits to the number of neurons which can be simultaneously imaged. Our paper suggests a means for expanding our limited capabilities. With more powerful algorithmic tools, we can imagine mapping population dynamics of all the neurons in an entire neural circuit such as the zebrafish larval olfactory bulb, or layers 2 & 3 of a whisker barrel? an ambitious goal which has until now been out of reach. Acknowledgements We thank Peter Dayan for valuable comments on our manuscript and members of the Gatsby Unit for discussions. We are grateful for support from the Gatsby Charitable Trust, Wellcome Trust, ERC, EMBO, People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; FKZ: 01GQ1002, Bernstein Center T?ubingen). 8 References [1] J. N. D. Kerr and W. Denk, ?Imaging in vivo: watching the brain in action,? Nat Rev Neurosci, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 195?205, 2008. [2] C. Grienberger and A. Konnerth, ?Imaging calcium in neurons.,? Neuron, vol. 73, no. 5, pp. 862?885, 2012. [3] S. Lefort, C. Tomm, J.-C. Floyd Sarria, and C. C. H. Petersen, ?The excitatory neuronal network of the C2 barrel column in mouse primary somatosensory cortex.,? Neuron, vol. 61, no. 2, pp. 301?316, 2009. [4] D. J. Tolhurst, J. A. Movshon, and A. F. Dean, ?The statistical reliability of signals in single neurons in cat and monkey visual cortex,? Vision research, vol. 23, no. 8, pp. 775?785, 1983. [5] W. R. Softky and C. Koch, ?The highly irregular firing of cortical cells is inconsistent with temporal integration of random epsps,? The Journal of Neuroscience, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 334?350, 1993. [6] Y. Mishchenko, J. T. Vogelstein, and L. Paninski, ?A bayesian approach for inferring neuronal connectivity from calcium fluorescent imaging data,? The Annals of Applied Statistics, vol. 5, no. 2B, pp. 1229? 1261, 2011. [7] O. Stetter, D. Battaglia, J. Soriano, and T. Geisel, ?Model-free reconstruction of excitatory neuronal connectivity from calcium imaging signals,? PLoS Comp Bio, vol. 8, no. 8, p. e1002653, 2012. [8] J. W. Pillow, J. Shlens, L. Paninski, A. Sher, A. M. Litke, E. J. Chichilnisky, and E. P. Simoncelli, ?Spatio-temporal correlations and visual signalling in a complete neuronal population.,? Nature, vol. 454, no. 7207, pp. 995?999, 2008. [9] I. H. Stevenson, J. M. Rebesco, L. E. Miller, and K. P. K?ording, ?Inferring functional connections between neurons,? Current opinion in neurobiology, vol. 18, no. 6, pp. 582?588, 2008. [10] A. Singh and N. A. Lesica, ?Incremental mutual information: A new method for characterizing the strength and dynamics of connections in neuronal circuits,? PLoS Comp Bio, vol. 6, no. 12, p. e1001035, 2010. [11] D. Song, H. Wang, C. Y. Tu, V. Z. Marmarelis, R. E. Hampson, S. A. Deadwyler, and T. W. Berger, ?Identification of sparse neural functional connectivity using penalized likelihood estimation and basis functions,? J Comp Neursci, pp. 1?23, 2013. [12] A. Wohrer, R. Romo, and C. Machens, ?Linear readout from a neural population with partial correlation data,? in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, vol. 22, Curran Associates, Inc., 2010. [13] J. W. Pillow and P. Latham, ?Neural characterization in partially observed populations of spiking neurons,? Adv Neural Information Processing Systems, vol. 20, no. 3.5, 2008. [14] A. Pakman, J. H. Huggins, and P. L., ?Fast penalized state-space methods for inferring dendritic synaptic connectivity,? Journal of Computational Neuroscience, 2013. [15] Y. Mishchenko and L. Paninski, ?A bayesian compressed-sensing approach for reconstructing neural connectivity from subsampled anatomical data,? J Comp Neurosci, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 371?388, 2012. [16] J. T. Vogelstein, B. O. Watson, A. M. Packer, R. Yuste, B. Jedynak, and L. Paninski, ?Spike inference from calcium imaging using sequential monte carlo methods,? Biophysical Journal, vol. 97, no. 2, pp. 636? 655, 2009. [17] M. Vidne, Y. Ahmadian, J. Shlens, J. Pillow, J. Kulkarni, A. Litke, E. Chichilnisky, E. Simoncelli, and L. Paninski, ?Modeling the impact of common noise inputs on the network activity of retinal ganglion cells.,? J Comput Neurosci, 2011. [18] J. H. Macke, L. B?using, J. P. Cunningham, B. M. Yu, K. V. Shenoy, and M. Sahani., ?Empirical models of spiking in neural populations.,? in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, vol. 24, Curran Associates, Inc., 2012. [19] A. P. Dempster, N. M. Laird, and D. B. Rubin, ?Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm,? J R Stat Soc Ser B, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 1?38, 1977. [20] P. Liang and D. Klein, ?Online EM for unsupervised models,? in NAACL ?09: Proceedings of Human Language Technologies: The 2009 Annual Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, Association for Computational Linguistics, 2009. [21] T. Katayama, Subspace methods for system identification. Springer Verlag, 2005. [22] L. E. Baum and T. Petrie, ?Statistical Inference for Probabilistic Functions of Finite State Markov Chains,? The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 37, no. 6, pp. 1554?1563, 1966. [23] F. Takens, ?Detecting Strange Attractors In Turbulence,? in Dynamical Systems and Turbulence (D. A. Rand and L. S. Young, eds.), vol. 898 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, (Warwick), pp. 366?381, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1981. [24] S. W. Linderman and R. P. Adams, ?Inferring functional connectivity with priors on network topology,? in Cosyne Abstracts, 2013. 9
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Noise-Enhanced Associative Memories Amin Karbasi Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich [email protected] Amir Hesam Salavati Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne [email protected] Amin Shokrollahi Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne [email protected] Lav R. Varshney IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center [email protected] Abstract Recent advances in associative memory design through structured pattern sets and graph-based inference algorithms allow reliable learning and recall of exponential numbers of patterns. Though these designs correct external errors in recall, they assume neurons compute noiselessly, in contrast to highly variable neurons in hippocampus and olfactory cortex. Here we consider associative memories with noisy internal computations and analytically characterize performance. As long as internal noise is less than a specified threshold, error probability in the recall phase can be made exceedingly small. More surprisingly, we show internal noise actually improves performance of the recall phase. Computational experiments lend additional support to our theoretical analysis. This work suggests a functional benefit to noisy neurons in biological neuronal networks. 1 Introduction Hippocampus, olfactory cortex, and other brain regions are thought to operate as associative memories [1,2], having the ability to learn patterns from presented inputs, store a large number of patterns, and retrieve them reliably in the face of noisy or corrupted queries [3?5]. Associative memory models are designed to have these properties. Although such information storage and recall seemingly falls into the information-theoretic framework, where an exponential number of messages can be communicated reliably with a linear number of symbols, classical associative memory models could only store a linear number of patterns [4]. A primary reason is classical models require memorizing a randomly chosen set of patterns. By enforcing structure and redundancy in the possible set of memorizable patterns?like natural stimuli [6], internal neural representations [7], and error-control codewords?advances in associative memory design allow storage of an exponential number of patterns [8,9], just like in communication systems. Information-theoretic and associative memory models of storage have been used to predict experimentally measurable properties of synapses in the mammalian brain [10,11]. But contrary to the fact that noise is present in computational operations of the brain [12, 13], associative memory models with exponential capacities have assumed no internal noise in the computational nodes. The purpose here is to model internal noise and study whether such associative memories still operate reliably. Surprisingly, we find internal noise actually enhances recall performance, suggesting a functional role for variability in the brain. In particular we consider a multi-level, graph code-based, associative memory model [9] and find that even if all components are noisy, the final error probability in recall can be made exceedingly small. We characterize a threshold phenomenon and show how to optimize algorithm parameters when knowing statistical properties of internal noise. Rather counterintuitively the performance 1 of the memory model improves in the presence of internal neural noise, as observed previously as stochastic resonance [13, 14]. There are mathematical connections to perturbed simplex algorithms for linear programing [15], where internal noise pushes the algorithm out of local minima. The benefit of internal noise has been noted previously in associative memory models with stochastic update rules, cf. [16]. However, our framework differs from previous approaches in three key aspects. First, our memory model is different, which makes extension of previous analysis nontrivial. Second, and perhaps most importantly, pattern retrieval capacity in previous approaches decreases with internal noise, cf. [16, Fig. 6.1], in that increasing internal noise helps correct more external errors, but also reduces the number of memorizable patterns. In our framework, internal noise does not affect pattern retrieval capacity (up to a threshold) but improves recall performance. Finally, our noise model has bounded rather than Gaussian noise, and so a suitable network may achieve perfect recall despite internal noise. Reliably storing information in memory systems constructed completely from unreliable components is a classical problem in fault-tolerant computing [17?19], where models have used random access architectures with sequential correcting networks. Although direct comparison is difficult since notions of circuit complexity are different, our work also demonstrates that associative memory architectures constructed from unreliable components can store information reliably. Building on the idea of structured pattern sets [20], our associative memory model [9] relies on the fact that all patterns to be learned lie in a low-dimensional subspace. Learning features of a lowdimensional space is very similar to autoencoders [21] and has structural similarities to Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), particularly Convolutional Neural Networks [22]. 2 Associative Memory Model Notation and basic structure: In our model, a neuron can assume an integer-valued state from the set S = {0, . . . , S ? 1}, interpreted as the short term firing rate of neurons. A neuron updates n its state Pnbased on the states of its neighbor {si }i=1 as follows. It first computes a weighted sum h = i=1 wi si + ?, where wi is the weight of the link from si and ? is the internal noise, and then applies nonlinear function f : R ? S to h. An associative memory is represented by a weighted bipartite graph, G, with pattern neurons and constraint neurons. Each pattern x = (x1 , . . . , xn ) is a vector of length n, where xi ? S, i = 1, . . . , n. Following [9], the focus is on recalling patterns with strong local correlation among entries. Hence, we divide entries of each pattern x into L overlapping sub-patterns of lengths n1 , . . . , nL . Due to overlaps, a pattern neuron can be a member of multiple subpatterns, as in (i) (i) Fig. 1a. The ith subpattern is denoted x(i) = (x1 , . . . , xni ), and local correlations are assumed to be in the form of subspaces, i.e. the subpatterns x(i) form a subspace of dimension ki < ni . We capture the local correlations by learning a set of linear constraints over each subspace corre(i) (i) sponding to the dual vectors orthogonal to that subspace. More specifically, let {w1 , . . . , wmi } be (i) a set of dual vectors orthogonal to all subpatterns x of cluster i. Then: (i) (i) yj = (wj )T ? x(i) = 0, for all j ? {1, . . . , mi } and for all i ? {1, . . . , L}. (i) (i) (1) (i) Eq. (1) can be rewritten as W (i) ? x(i) = 0 where W (i) = [w1 |w2 | . . . |wmi ]T is the matrix of dual vectors. Now we use a bipartite graph with connectivity matrix determined by W (i) to represent the subspace constraints learned from subpattern x(i) ; this graph is called cluster i. We developed an efficient way of learning W (i) in [9], also used here. Briefly, in each iteration of learning: 1. Pick a pattern x at random from the dataset; (i) 2. Adjust weight vectors wj for j = {1, . . . , mi } and i = {1, . . . , L} such that the projection (i) of x onto wj is reduced. Apply a sparsity penalty to favor sparse solutions. This process repeats until all weights are orthogonal to the patterns in the dataset or the maximum iteration limit is reached. The learning rule allows us to assume the weight matrices W (i) are known and satisfy W (i) ? x(i) = 0 for all patterns x in the dataset X , in this paper. 2 G(1) y1 y2 G(2) y3 (2) x1 y4 (2) x2 G(3) y5 (2) x3 y6 y7 y8 (2) x4 (a) Bipartite graph G. e (b) Contraction graph G. Figure 1: The proposed neural associative memory with overlapping clusters. e whose connectivity For the forthcoming asymptotic analysis, we need to define a contracted graph G f and has size L ? n. This is a bipartite graph in which constraints in each cluster matrix is denoted W fij = 1; are represented by a single neuron. Thus, if pattern neuron xj is connected to cluster i, W f e using otherwise Wij = 0. We also define the degree distribution from an edge perspective over G, P P j j?1 e e ej (resp., ?ej ) equals the fraction of edges that ?(z) = e(z) = ej z where ? j ?j z and ? j? connect to pattern (resp., cluster) nodes of degree j. Noise model: There are two types of noise in our model: external errors and internal noise. As mentioned earlier, a neural network should be able to retrieve memorized pattern x ? from its corrupted version x due to external errors. We assume the external error is an additive vector of size n, denoted by z satisfying x = x ? + z, whose entries assume values independently from {?1, 0, +1}1 with corresponding probabilities p?1 = p+1 = /2 and p0 = 1 ? . The realization of the external error on subpattern x(i) is denoted z (i) . Note that the subspace assumption implies W ? y = W ? z and W (i) ? y (i) = W (i) ? z (i) for all i. Neurons also suffer from internal noise. We consider a bounded noise model, i.e. a random number uniformly distributed in the intervals [??, ?] and [??, ?] for the pattern and constraint neurons, respectively (?, ? < 1). The goal of recall is to filter the external error z to obtain the desired pattern x as the correct states of the pattern neurons. When neurons compute noiselessly, this task may be achieved by exploiting the fact the set of patterns x ? X to satisfy the set of constraints W (i) ? x(i) = 0. However, it is not clear how to accomplish this objective when the neural computations are noisy. Rather surprisingly, we show that eliminating external errors is not only possible in the presence of internal noise, but that neural networks with moderate internal noise demonstrate better external noise resilience. Recall algorithms: To efficiently deal with external errors, we use a combination of Alg. 1 and Alg. 2. The role of Alg. 1 is to correct at least a single external error in each cluster. Without overlaps between clusters, the error resilience of the network is limited. Alg. 2 exploits the overlaps: it helps clusters with external errors recover their correct states by using the reliable information from clusters that do not have external errors. The error resilience of the resulting combination thereby drastically improves. Now we describe the details of Alg. 1 and Alg. 2 more precisely. Alg. 1 performs a series of forward and backward iterations in each cluster G(l) to remove (at least) one external error from its input domain. At each iteration, the pattern neurons locally decide whether to update their current state: if the amount of feedback received by a pattern neuron exceeds a threshold, the neuron updates its state, and otherwise remains as is. With abuse of notation, let us denote messages transmitted by pattern node i and constraint node j at round t by xi (t) and yj (t), respectively. In round 0, pattern nodes are initialized by a pattern x ?, sampled from dataset X , perturbed by external errors z, i.e., x(0) = x ? + z. Thus, for cluster ` we have x(`) (0) = x ?(`) + z (`) , (`) (`) where z is the realization of errors on subpattern x . In round t, the pattern and constraint neurons update their states using feedback from neighbors. However since neural computations are faulty, decisions made by neurons may not be reliable. To minimize effects of internal noise, we use the following update rule for pattern node i in cluster `: ( (`) (`) (`) xi (t) ? sign(gi (t)), if |gi (t)| ? ? (`) xi (t + 1) = (2) (`) xi (t), otherwise, 1 Note that the proposed algorithms also work with larger noise values, i.e. from a set {?a, . . . , a} for some a ? N, see [23]; the ?1 noise model is presented here for simplicity. 3 Algorithm 1 Intra-Module Error Correction Input: Training set X , thresholds ?, ?, iteration tmax (`) (`) (`) Output: x1 , x2 , . . . , xn` 1: for t = 1 ? tmax do (`) 2: Forward iteration: Calculate the input hi = Pn` (`) (`) (`) and j=1 Wij xj + vi , for each neuron yi (`) (`) set yi = f (hi , ?). (`) 3: Backward iteration: Each neuron xj computes Pm` sign(Wij(`) )yi(`) (`) gj = Pi=1 + ui . m` (`) i=1 sign(|Wij |) 4: Update state of each pattern neuron j according (`) (`) (`) (`) to xj = xj ? sign(gj ) only if |gj | > ?. 5: end for Algorithm 2 Sequential Peeling Algorithm e G(1) , G(2) , . . . , G(L) . Input: G, Output: x1 , x2 , . . . , xn 1: while there is an unsatisfied v (`) do 2: for ` = 1 ? L do 3: If v (`) is unsatisfied, apply Alg. 1 to cluster G(l) . 4: If v (`) remained unsatisfied, revert state of pattern neurons connected to v (`) to their initial state. Otherwise, keep their current states. 5: end for 6: end while 7: Declare x1 , x2 , . . . , xn if all v (`) ?s are satisfied. Otherwise, declare failure.  (`) (`) (`) where ? is the update threshold and gi (t) = (sign(W (`) )> ? y (`) (t) i /di + ui .2 Here, di is (`) (`) the degree of pattern node i in cluster `, y (`) (t) = [y1 (t), . . . , ym` (t)] is the vector of messages transmitted by the constraint neurons in cluster `, and ui is the random noise affecting pattern node (`) i. Basically, the term gi (t) reflects the (average) belief of constraint nodes connected to pattern (`) neuron i about its correct value. If gi (t) is larger than a specified threshold ? it means most of (`) the connected constraints suggest the current state xi (t) is not correct, hence, a change should be made. Note this average belief is diluted by the internal noise of neuron i. As mentioned earlier, ui is uniformly distributed in the interval [??, ?], for some ? < 1. On the constraint side, the update rule is: ? (`) ? ?+1, if hi (t) ? ? (`) (`) (`) (3) yi (t) = f (hi (t), ?) = 0, if ? ? ? hi (t) ? ? ? ? ?1, otherwise,  (`) where ? is the update threshold and hi (t) = W (`) ? x(`) (t) i + vi . Here, x(`) (t) = (`) (`) [x1 (t), . . . , xn` (t)] is the vector of messages transmitted by the pattern neurons and vi is the random noise affecting node i. As before, we consider a bounded noise model for vi , i.e., it is uniformly distributed in the interval [??, ?] for some ? < 1.3 The error correction ability of Alg. 1 is fairly limited, as determined analytically and through simulations [23]. In essence, Alg. 1 can correct one external error with high probability, but degrades terribly against two or more external errors. Working independently, clusters cannot correct more than a few external errors, but their combined performance is much better. As clusters overlap, they help each other in resolving external errors: a cluster whose pattern neurons are in their correct states can always provide truthful information to neighboring clusters. This property is exploited in Alg. 2 by applying Alg. 1 in a round-robin fashion to each cluster. Clusters either eliminate their internal noise in which case they keep their new states and can now help other clusters, or revert back to their original states. Note that by such a scheduling scheme, neurons can only change their states towards correct values. This scheduling technique is similar in spirit to the peeling algorithm [24]. 3 Recall Performance Analysis Now let us analyze recall error performance. The following lemma shows that if ? and ? are chosen properly, then in the absence of external errors the constraints remain satisfied and internal noise cannot result in violations. This is a crucial property for Alg. 2, as it allows one to determine whether (`) 2 Note that xi (t + 1) is further mapped to the interval [0, S ? 1] by saturating the values below 0 and above S ? 1 to 0 and S ? 1 respectively. The corresponding equations are omitted for brevity. (`) 3 Note that although the values of yi (t) can be shifted to 0, 1, 2, instead of ?1, 0, 1 to match our assumption that neural states are non-negative, we leave them as such to simplify later analysis. 4 a cluster has successfully eliminated external errors (Step 4 of algorithm) by merely checking the satisfaction of all constraint nodes. Lemma 1. In the absence of external errors, the probability that a constraint neuron (resp. pat(`) tern neuron)  in cluster ` makes a wrong decision due to its internal noise is given by ?0 = (`) max 0, ??? (resp. P0 = max 0, ??? ). ? ? (`) (`) Proof is given in [23]. In the sequel, we assume ? > ? and ? > ? so that ?0 = 0 and P0 = 0. However, an external error combined with internal noise may still push neurons to an incorrect state. Given the above lemma and our neural architecture, we can prove the following surprising result: in the asymptotic regime of increasing number of iterations of Alg. 2, a neural network with internal noise outperforms one without. Let us define the fraction of errors corrected by the noiseless and noisy neural network (parametrized by ? and ?) after T iterations of Alg. 2 by ?(T ) and ??,? (T ), respectively. Note that both ?(T ) ? 1 and ??,? (T ) ? 1 are non-decreasing sequences of T . Hence, their limiting values are well defined: limT ?? ?(T ) = ?? and limT ?? ??,? (T ) = ???,? . (`) (`) Theorem 2. Let us choose ? and ? so that ?0 = 0 and P0 same realization of external errors, we have ???,? ? ?? . = 0 for all ` ? {1, . . . , L}. For the Proof is given in [23]. The high level idea why a noisy network outperforms a noiseless one comes from understanding stopping sets. These are realizations of external errors where the iterative Alg. 2 cannot correct all of them. We show that the stopping set shrinks as we add internal noise. In other words, we show that in the limit of T ? ? the noisy network can correct any error pattern that can be corrected by the noiseless version and it can also get out of stopping sets that cause the noiseless network to fail. Thus, the supposedly harmful internal noise will help Alg. 2 to avoid stopping sets. Thm. 2 suggests the only possible downside with using a noisy network is its possible running time in eliminating external errors: the noisy neural network may need more iterations to achieve the same error correction performance. Interestingly, our empirical experiments show that in certain scenarios, even the running time improves when using a noisy network. Thm. 2 indicates that noisy neural networks (under our model) outperform noiseless ones, but does not specify the level of errors that such networks can correct. Now we derive a theoretical upper bound on error correction performance. To this end, let Pci be the average probability that a cluster can correct i external errors in its domain. The following theorem gives a simple condition under which Alg. 2 can correct a linear fraction of external errors (in terms of n) with high probability. ? and ??, the degree distributions of the contracted graph G. ? The condition involves ? e grows large and it is chosen randomly with degree Theorem 3. Under the assumptions that graph G e distributions given by ? and ?e, Alg. 2 is successful if ? e ?1 ? ? X i?1 ? z i?1 di?1 ?e(1 ? z) ? Pc i ? < z, f or z ? [0, ]. i! dz i?1 (4) Proof is given in [23] and is based on the density evolution technique [25]. Thm. 3 states that for any fraction of errors ??,? ? ???,? that satisfies the above recursive formula, Alg. 2 will be successful with probability close to one. Note that the first fixed point of the above recursive equation dictates the maximum fraction of errors ???,? that our model can correct. For the special case of Pc1 = 1 and e ? ?e(1 ? z)) < z, the same condition given in [9]. Thm. 3 takes into Pci = 0, ?i > 1, we obtain ?1 account the contribution of all Pci terms and as we will see, their values change as we incorporate the effect of internal noise ? and ?. Our results show that the maximum value of Pci does not occur when the internal noise is equal to zero, i.e. ? = ? = 0, but instead when the neurons are contaminated with internal noise! As an example, Fig. 2 illustrates how Pci behaves as a function of ? in the network considered (note that maximum values are not at ? = 0). This finding suggests that even individual clusters are able to correct more errors in the presence of internal noise. 5 ? = 0, ? = 0-Sim Pc1 Pc2 Pc3 Pc4 0.8 0.6 0.15 ? = 0.2, ? = 0-Thr 0.4 ? = 0.4, ? = 0-Sim 0.10 ? = 0.4, ? = 0-Thr ? = 0.6, ? = 0-Sim ? = 0.6, ? = 0-Thr 0.05 0.2 0.00 0.00 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 ? 0.05  0.10 Figure 3: The final SER for a network with n = 400, L = 50 cf. [9]. The blue curves correspond to the noiseless neural network. Figure 2: The value of Pci as a function of pattern neurons noise ? for i = 1, . . . , 4. Noise at constraint neurons is assumed as zero (? = 0). 3.1 ? = 0, ? = 0-Thr ? = 0.2, ? = 0-Sim Final SER Prob. correcting ext. errors 1 Simulations Now we consider simulation results for a finite system. To learn the subspace constraints (1) for each cluster G(`) we use the learning algorithm in [9]. Henceforth, we assume that the weight matrix W is known and given. In our setup, we consider a network of size n = 400 with L = 50 clusters. We have 40 pattern nodes and 20 constraint nodes in each cluster, on average. External error is modeled by randomly generated vectors z with entries ?1 with probability  and 0 otherwise. Vector z is added to the correct patterns, which satisfy (1). For recall, Alg. 2 is used and results are reported in terms of Symbol Error Rate (SER) as the level of external error () or internal noise (?, ?) is changed; this involves counting positions where the output of Alg. 2 differs from the correct pattern. 3.1.1 Symbol Error Rate as a function of Internal Noise Fig. 3 illustrates the final SER of our algorithm for different values of ? and ?. Recall that ? and ? quantify the level of noise in pattern and constraint neurons, respectively. Dashed lines in Fig. 3 are simulation results whereas solid lines are theoretical upper bounds provided in this paper. As evident, there is a threshold phenomenon such that SER is negligible for  ? ? and grows beyond this threshold. As expected, simulation results are better than the theoretical bounds. In particular, the gap is relatively large as ? moves towards one. A more interesting trend in Fig. 3 is the fact that internal noise helps in achieving better performance, as predicted by theoretical analysis (Thm. 2). Notice how ? moves towards one as ? increases. This phenomenon is examined more closely in Figs. 4a and 4b where  is fixed to 0.125 while ? and ? vary. As we see, a moderate amount of internal noise at both pattern and constraint neurons improves performance. There is an optimum point (? ? , ? ? ) for which the SER reaches its minimum. Fig. 4b indicates for instance that ? ? ? 0.25, beyond which SER deteriorates. 3.2 Recall Time as a function of Internal Noise Fig. 5 illustrates the number of iterations performed by Alg. 2 for correcting the external errors when  is fixed to 0.075. We stop whenever the algorithm corrects all external errors or declare a recall error if all errors were not corrected in 40 iterations. Thus, the corresponding areas in the figure where the number of iterations reaches 40 indicates decoding failure. Figs. 6a and 6b are projected versions of Fig. 5 and show the average number of iterations as a function of ? and ?, respectively. The amount of internal noise drastically affects the speed of Alg. 2. First, from Fig. 5 and 6b observe that running time is more sensitive to noise at constraint neurons than pattern neurons and that the algorithms become slower as noise at constraint neurons is increased. In contrast, note that internal noise at the pattern neurons may improve the running time, as seen in Fig. 6a. 6 Final SER =0 = 0.1 = 0.3 = 0.5 0.10 Final SER ? ? ? ? 0.10 0.05 0.00 ? ? ? ? 0.05 =0 = 0.1 = 0.2 = 0.5 0.00 0 0.1 0.2 ? 0.3 0.4 0 (a) Final SER as function of ? for  = 0.125. 0.1 0.2 ? 0.3 0.4 (b) The effect of ? on the final SER for  = 0.125 Avg. No. Iterations Figure 4: The final SER vs. internal noise parameters at pattern and constraint neurons for  = 0.125 40.00 20.00 0.00 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 ? Figure 5: The effect of internal noise on the number of iterations of Alg. 2 when  = 0.075. ? 0 Note that the results presented here are for the case where the noiseless decoder succeeds as well and its average number of iterations is pretty close to the optimal value (see Fig. 5). In [23], we provide additional results corresponding to  = 0.125, where the noiseless decoder encounters stopping sets while the noisy decoder is still capable of correcting external errors; there we see that the optimal running time occurs when the neurons have a fair amount of internal noise. In [23] we also provide results of a study for a slightly modified scenario where there is only internal noise and no external errors. Furthermore, ? < ?. Thus, the internal noise can now cause neurons to make wrong decisions, even in the absence of external errors. There, we witness the more familiar phenomenon where increasing the amount of internal noise results in a worse performance. This finding emphasizes the importance of choosing update threshold ? and ? according to Lem. 1. 4 Pattern Retrieval Capacity For completeness, we review pattern retrieval capacity results from [9] to show that the proposed model is capable of memorizing an exponentially large number of patterns. First, note that since the patterns form a subspace, the number of patterns C does not have any effect on the learning or recall algorithms (except for its obvious influence on the learning time). Thus, in order to show that the pattern retrieval capacity is exponential in n, all we need to demonstrate is that there exists a training set X with C patterns of length n for which C ? arn , for some a > 1 and 0 < r. Theorem 4 ( [9]). Let X be a C ? n matrix, formed by C vectors of length n with entries from the set S. Furthermore, let k = rn for some 0 < r < 1. Then, there exists a set of vectors for which C = arn , with a > 1, and rank(X ) = k < n. 7 40 ? ? ? ? 10 0 0.1 0.2 ? 0.3 =0 = 0.2 = 0.3 = 0.5 Avg. No. Iterations Avg. No. Iterations 40 0.4 ? ? ? ? 10 0 (a) Effect of internal noise at pattern neurons side. 0.1 =0 = 0.2 = 0.3 = 0.5 0.2 ? 0.3 0.4 (b) Effect of internal noise at constraint neurons side. Figure 6: The effect of internal noise on the number of iterations performed by Alg. 2, for different values of ? and ? with  = 0.075. The average iteration number of 40 indicate the failure of Alg. 2. The proof is constructive: we create a dataset X such that it can be memorized by the proposed neural network and satisfies the required properties, i.e. the subpatterns form a subspace and pattern entries are integer values from the set S = {0, . . . , S ? 1}. The complete proof can be found in [9]. 5 Discussion We have demonstrated that associative memories with exponential capacity still work reliably even when built from unreliable hardware, addressing a major problem in fault-tolerant computing and further arguing for the viability of associative memory models for the (noisy) mammalian brain. After all, brain regions modeled as associative memories, such as the hippocampus and the olfactory cortex, certainly do display internal noise [12, 13, 26]. The linear-nonlinear computations of Alg. 1 are certainly biologically plausible, but implementing the state reversion computation of Alg. 2 in a biologically plausible way remains an open question. We found a threshold phenomenon for reliable operation, which manifests the tradeoff between the amount of internal noise and the amount of external noise that the system can handle. In fact, we showed that internal noise actually improves the performance of the network in dealing with external errors, up to some optimal value. This is a manifestation of the stochastic facilitation [13] or noise enhancement [14] phenomenon that has been observed in other neuronal and signal processing systems, providing a functional benefit to variability in the operation of neural systems. The associative memory design developed herein uses thresholding operations in the messagepassing algorithm for recall; as part of our investigation, we optimized these neural firing thresholds based on the statistics of the internal noise. As noted by Sarpeshkar in describing the properties of analog and digital computing circuits, ?In a cascade of analog stages, noise starts to accumulate. Thus, complex systems with many stages are difficult to build. [In digital systems] Round-off error does not accumulate significantly for many computations. Thus, complex systems with many stages are easy to build? [27]. One key to our result is capturing this benefit of digital processing (thresholding to prevent the build up of errors due to internal noise) as well as a modular architecture which allows us to correct a linear number of external errors (in terms of the pattern length). This paper focused on recall, however learning is the other critical stage of associative memory operation. 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Demixing odors ? fast inference in olfaction ? Agnieszka Grabska-Barwinska Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit UCL [email protected] Jeff Beck Duke University [email protected] Peter E. Latham Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit UCL [email protected] Alexandre Pouget University of Geneva [email protected] Abstract The olfactory system faces a difficult inference problem: it has to determine what odors are present based on the distributed activation of its receptor neurons. Here we derive neural implementations of two approximate inference algorithms that could be used by the brain. One is a variational algorithm (which builds on the work of Beck. et al., 2012), the other is based on sampling. Importantly, we use a more realistic prior distribution over odors than has been used in the past: we use a ?spike and slab? prior, for which most odors have zero concentration. After mapping the two algorithms onto neural dynamics, we find that both can infer correct odors in less than 100 ms. Thus, at the behavioral level, the two algorithms make very similar predictions. However, they make different assumptions about connectivity and neural computations, and make different predictions about neural activity. Thus, they should be distinguishable experimentally. If so, that would provide insight into the mechanisms employed by the olfactory system, and, because the two algorithms use very different coding strategies, that would also provide insight into how networks represent probabilities. 1 Introduction The problem faced by the sensory system is to infer the underlying causes of a set of input spike trains. For the olfactory system, the input spikes come from a few hundred different types of olfactory receptor neurons, and the problem is to infer which odors caused them. As there are more than 10,000 possible odors, and more than one can be present at a time, the search space for mixtures of odors is combinatorially large. Nevertheless, olfactory processing is fast: organisms can typically determine what odors are present in a few hundred ms. Here we ask how organisms could do this. Since our focus is on inference, not learning: we assume that the olfactory system has learned both the statistics of odors in the world and the mapping from those odors to olfactory receptor neuron activity. We then choose a particular model for both, and compute, via Bayes rule, the full posterior distribution. This distribution is, however, highly complex: it tells us, for example, the probability of coffee at a concentration of 14 parts per million (ppm), and no bacon, and a rose at 27 ppm, and acetone at 3 ppm, and no apples and so on, where the ?so on? is a list of thousands more odors. It is unlikely that such detailed information is useful to an organism. It is far more likely that organisms are interested in marginal probabilities, such as whether or not coffee is present independent of all the other odors. Unfortunately, even though we can write down the full posterior, calculation of marginal probabilities is intractable due to the 1 sum over all possible combinations of odors: the number of terms in the sum is exponential in the number of odors. We must, therefore, consider approximate algorithms. Here we consider two: a variational approximation, which naturally generates approximate posterior marginals, and sampling from the posterior, which directly gives us the marginals. Our main goal is to determine which, if either, is capable of performing inference on ecologically relevant timescales using biologically plausible circuits. We begin by introducing a generative model for spikes in a population of olfactory receptor neurons. We then describe the variational and sampling inference schemes. Both descriptions lead very naturally to network equations. We simulate those equations, and find that both the variational and sampling approaches work well, and require less than 100 ms to converge to a reasonable solution. Therefore, from the point of view of speed and accuracy ? things that can be measured from behavioral experiments ? it is not possible to rule out either of them. However, they do make different predictions about activity, and so it should be possible to tell them apart from electrophysiological experiments. They also make different predictions about the neural representation of probability distributions. If one or the other could be corroborated experimentally, that would provide valuable insight into how the brain (or at least one part of the brain) codes for probabilities [1]. 2 The generative model for olfaction The generative model consists of a probabilistic mapping from odors (which for us are a high level percepts, such as coffee or bacon, each of which consists of a mixture of many different chemicals) to odorant receptor neurons, and a prior over the presence or absence of odors and their concentrations. It is known that each odor, by itself, activates a different subset of the olfactory receptor neurons; typically on the order of 10%-30% [2]. Here we assume, for simplicity, that activation is linear, for which the activity of odorant receptor neuron i, denoted ri is linearly related to the concentrations, cj of the various odors which are present in a given olfactory scene, plus some background rate, r0 . Assuming Poisson noise, the response distribution has the form   ri P  P Y r0 + j wij cj P (r|c) = (2.1) e? r0 + j wij cj . ri ! i P In a nutshell, ri is Poisson with mean r0 + j wij cj . In contrast to previous work [3], which used a smooth prior on the concentrations, here we use a spike and slab prior. With this prior, there is a finite probability that the concentration of any particular odor is zero. This prior is much more realistic than a smooth one, as it allows only a small number of odors (out of ?10,000) to be present in any given olfactory scene. It is modeled by introducing a binary variable, sj , which is 1 if odor j is present and 0 otherwise. For simplicity we assume that odors are independent and statistically homogeneous, Y P (c|s) = (1 ? sj )?(cj ) + sj ?(cj |?1 , ?1 ) (2.2a) j P (s) = Y ? sj (1 ? ?)1?sj (2.2b) j where ?(c) is the Dirac delta function and ?(c|?, ?) is the Gamma distribution: ?(c|?, ?) = R? ? ? c??1 e??c /?(?) with ?(?) the ordinary Gamma function, ?(?) = 0 dx x??1 e?x . 3 3.1 Inference Variational inference Because of the delta-function in the prior, performing efficient variational inference in our model is difficult. Therefore, we smooth the delta-function, and replace it with a Gamma distribution. With this manipulation, the approximate (with respect to the true model, Eq. (2.2a)) prior on c is Y Pvar (c|s) = (1 ? sj )?(cj |?0 , ?0 ) + sj ?(cj |?1 , ?1 ) . (3.1) j 2 The approximate prior allows absent odors to have nonzero concentration. We can partially compensate for that by setting the background firing rate, r0 to zero, and choosing ?0 and ?0 such that the effective background firing rate (due to the small concentration when sj = 0) is equal to r0 ; see Sec. 4. As is typical in variational inference, we use a factorized approximate distribution. This distribution, denoted Q(c, s|r),was set to Q(c|s, r)Q(s|r) where Y Q(c|s, r) = (1 ? sj )?(cj |?0j , ?0j ) + sj ?(cj |?1j , ?1j ) (3.2a) j Q(s|r) = Y s ?j j (1 ? ?j )1?sj . (3.2b) j Introducing auxiliary variables, as described in Supplementary Material, and minimizing the Kullback-Leibler distance between Q and the true posterior augmented by the auxiliary variables leads to a set of nonlinear equations for the parameters of Q. To simplify those equations, we set ?1 to ?0 + 1, resulting in ?0j = ?0 + X i Lj ? log ri wij Fj (?j , ?0j ) k=1 wik Fk (?k , ?0k ) P ?j = L0j + log(?0j /?0 ) + ?0j log(?0j /?1j ) 1 ? ?j (3.3a) (3.3b) where ? ? ?0 log (?0 /?1 ) + log(?1 /?1j ) 1?? Fj (?, ?) ? exp [(1 ? ?)(?(?) ? log ?0j ) + ?(?(? + 1) ? log ?1j )] L0j ? log (3.3c) (3.3d) and ?(?) ? d log ?(?)/d? is the digamma function. TheP remaining two parameters, P ?0j and ?1j , are fixed by our choice of weights and priors: ?0j = ?0 + i wij and ?1j = ?1 + i wij . To solve Eqs. (3.3a-b) in a way that mimics the kinds of operations that could be performed by neuronal circuitry, we write down a set of differential equations that have fixed points satisfying Eq. (3.3), ?? ?? X d?i = ri ? ?i wij Fj (?j , ?0j ) dt j X d?0j = ?0 + Fj (?j , ?0j ) ?i wij ? ?0j dt i ?? dLj = L0j + log(?0j /?0 ) + ?0j log(?0j /?1j ) ? Lj dt (3.4a) (3.4b) (3.4c) Note that we have introduced an additional variable, ?i . This variable is proportional to ri , but modulated by divisive inhibition: the fixed point of Eq. (3.4a) is ri . w F k ik k (?k , ?0k ) ?i = P (3.5) Close scrutiny of Eqs. (3.4) and (3.3d) might raise some concerns: (i) ? and ? are reciprocally and symmetrically connected; (ii) there are multiplicative interactions between F (?j , ?0j ) and ?; and (iii) the neurons need to compute nontrivial nonlinearities, such as logarithm, exponent and a mixture of digamma functions. However: (i) reciprocal and symmetric connectivity exists in the early olfactory processing system [4, 5, 6]; (ii) although multiplicative interactions are in general not easy for neurons, the divisive normalization (Eq. (3.5)) has been observed in the olfactory bulb [7], and (iii) the nonlinearities in our algorithms are not extreme (the logarithm is defined only on the positive range (?0j > ?0 , Eq. (3.3a)), and Fj (?, ?) function is a soft-thresholded linear function; see Fig. S1). Nevertheless, a realistic model would have to approximate Eqs. (3.4a-c), and thus degrade slightly the quality of the inference. 3 3.2 Sampling The second approximate algorithm we consider is sampling. To sample efficiently from our model, we introduce a new set of variables, c?j , cj = c?j sj . When written in terms of c?j rather than cj , the likelihood becomes P Y (r0 + j wij c?j sj )ri ? r +P w c? s  ij j j j P (r|? c, s) = e 0 . r ! i i (3.6) (3.7) Because the value of c?j is unconstrained when sj = 0, we have complete freedom in choosing P (? cj |sj = 0), the piece of the prior corresponding to the absence of odor j. It is convenient to set it to the same prior we use when sj = 1, which is ?(? cj |?1 , ?1 ). With this choice, ? c is independent of s, and the prior over ? c is simply Y P (? c) = ?(? cj |?1 , ?1 ) . (3.8) j The prior over s, Eq. (2.2b), remains the same. Note that this set of manipulations does not change the model: the likelihood doesn?t change, since by definition c?j sj = cj ; when sj = 1, c?j is drawn from the correct prior; and when sj = 0, c?j does not appear in the likelihood. To sample from this distribution we use Langevin sampling on c and Gibbs sampling on s. The former is standard,   X d? cj ? log P (? c, s|r) ?1 ? 1 ri P ?c = + ?(t) = ? ?1 + sj wij ? 1 + ?(t) dt ?? cj c?j r0 + k wik c?k sk i (3.9) where ?(t) is delta-correlated white noise with variance 2? : h?j (t)?j 0 (t0 )i = 2? ?(t ? t0 )?jj 0 . Because the ultimate goal is to implement this algorithm in networks of neurons, we need a Gibbs sampler that runs asynchronously and in real time. This can be done by discretizing time into steps of length dt, and computing the update probability for each odor on each time step. This is a valid Gibbs sampler only in the limit dt ? 0, where no more than one odor can be updated per time step that?s the limit of interest here. The update rule is T (s0j |? c, s, r) = ?0 dtP (s0j |? c, s, r) + (1 ? ?0 dt) ?(s0j ? sj ) (3.10) where s0j ? sj (t + dt), s and ? c should be evaluated at time t, and ?(s) is the Kronecker delta: ?(s) = 1 if s = 0 and 0 otherwise. As is straightforward to show, this update rule has the correct equilibrium distribution in the limit dt ? 0 (see Supplementary Material). Computing P (s0j = 1|? c, s, r) is straightforward, and we find that 1 1 + exp[??j ] " # P X r0 + k6=j wik c?k sk + wij c?j ? P ?j = log + ri log ? c?j wij . 1?? r + ?k sk 0 k6=j wik c i P (s0j = 1|? c, s, r) = (3.11) Equations (3.9) and (3.11) raise almost exactly the same concerns that we saw for the variational approach: (i) c and s are reciprocally and symmetrically connected; (ii) there are multiplicative interactions between c? and s; and (iii) the neurons need to compute nontrivial nonlinearities, such as logarithm and divisive normalization. Additionally, the noise in the Langevin sampler (? in Eq. 3.9) has to be white and have exactly the right variance. Thus, as with the variational approach, we expect a biophysical model to introduce approximations, and, therefore ? as with the variational algorithm ? degrade slightly the quality of the inference. 4 ?(c) 0.02 P0(c) P1(c) 0.05 0 0 0 0 0.5 10 20 30 40 1 50 60 Concentration 70 80 90 100 Figure 1: Priors over concentration. The true priors ? the ones used to generate the data ? are shown in red and magenta; these correspond to ?(c) and ?(c|?1 , ?1 ), respectively. The variational prior in the absence of an odor, ?(c|?0 , ?0 ) with ?0 = 0.5 and ?0 = 20, is shown in blue. 4 Simulations To determine how fast and accurate these two algorithms are, we performed a set of simulations using either Eq. (3.4) (variational inference) or Eqs. (3.9 - 3.11) (sampling). For both algorithms, the odors were generated from the true prior, Eq. (2.2). We modeled a small olfactory system, with 40 olfactory receptor types (compared to approximately 350 in humans and 1000 in mice [8]). To keep the ratio of identifiable odors to receptor types similar to the one in humans [8], we assumed 400 possible odors, with 3 odors expected to be present in the scene (? = 3/400). If an odor was present, its concentration was drawn from a Gamma distribution with ?1 = 1.5 and ?1 = 1/40. The background spike count, r0 , was set to 1. The connectivity matrix was binary and random, with a connection probability, pc (the probability that any particular element is 1), set to 0.1 [2]. All network time constants (?? , ?? , ?? , ?c and 1/?0 , from Eqs (3.4), (3.9) and (3.10)) were set to 10 ms. The differential equations were solved using the Euler method with a time step of 0.01 ms. Because we used ?1 = ?0 + 1, the choice ?1 = 1.5 forced ?0 to be 0.5. Our remaining parameter, ?0 , was set to ensure that, for the variational algorithm, the absent odors (those with sj = P 0) contributed a background firing rate of r0 on average. This average background rate is given by j hwij ihcj i = pc Nodors ?0 /?0 . Setting this to r0 yields ?0 = pc Nodors ?0 /r0 = 0.1 ? 400 ? 0.5/1 = 20. The true (Eq. (2.2)) and approximate (Eq. (3.1)) prior distributions over concentration are shown in Fig. 1. Figure 2 shows how the inference process evolves over time for a typical set of odors and concentrations. The top panel shows concentration, with variational inference on the left (where we plot the mean of the posterior distribution over concentration, (1 ? ?j )?0j (t)/?0j (t) + ?j ?1j (t)/?1j (t); see Eq. (3.2)) and sampling on the right (where we plot c?j , the output of our Langevin sampler; see Eq. (3.9)) for a case with three odors present. The three colored lines correspond to the odors that Sampling 100 100 c(t) 150 50 50 0 0 0 400 300 ?2 odors Log?probabilities Concentrations Variational 150 ?4 ?6 0 200 100 0.2 0.4 0.6 Time [sec] 0.8 0 0 1 0.2 0.4 0.6 Time [sec] 0.8 1 Figure 2: Example run for the variational algorithm (left) and sampling (right); see text for details. In the bottom left panel the green, blue and red lines go to a probability of 1 ( log probability of 0) within about 50 ms. In sampling, the initial value of concentrations is set to the most likely value under the prior (? c(0) = (?1 ? 1)/?1 ). The dashed lines are the true concentrations. 5 were presented, with solid lines for the inferred concentrations and dashed lines for the true ones. Black lines are the odors that were not present. At least in this example, both algorithms converge rapidly to the true concentration. In the bottom left panel of Fig. 2 we plot the log-probability that each of the odors is present, ?j (t). The present odors quickly approach probabilities of 1; the absent odors all have probabilities below 10?4 within about 200 ms. The bottom right panel shows samples from sj for all the odors, with dots denoting present odors (sj (t) = 1) and blanks absent odors (sj (t) = 0). Beyond about 500 ms, the true odors (the colored lines at the bottom) are on continuously, and for the odors that were not present, sj is still occasionally 1, but relatively rarely. In Fig. 3 we show the time course of the probability of odors when between 1 and 5 odors were presented. We show only the first 100 ms, to emphasize the initial time course. Again, variational inference is on the left and sampling is on the right. The black lines are the average values of the probability of the correct odors; the gray regions mark 25%?75% percentiles. Ideally, we would like to compare these numbers to those expected from a true posterior. However, due to its intractability, we must seek different means of comparison. Therefore, we plot the probability of the most likely non-presented odor (red); the average probability of the non-presented odors (green), and the probability of guessing the correct odors via simple template matching (dashed; see Fig. 3 legend for details). Although odors are inferred relatively rapidly (they exceed template matching within 20 ms), there were almost always false positives. Even with just one odor present, both algorithms consistently report the existence of another odor (red). This problem diminishes with time if fewer odors are presented than the expected three, but it persists for more complex mixtures. The false positives are in fact consistent with human behavior: humans have difficulty correctly identify more than one odor in a mixture, with the most common problem being false positives [9]. Finally, because the two algorithms encode probabilities differently (see Discussion below), we also look into the time courses of the neural activity. In Fig. 4, we show the log-probability, L (left), and probability, ? (right), averaged across 400 scenes containing 3 odors (see Supplementary Fig. 2 for the other odor mixtures). The probability of absent odors drops from log(3/400) ? e?5 (the prior) to e?12 (the final inferred probability). For the variational approach, this represents a drop in activity of 7 log units, comparable to the increase of about 5 log units for the present odors (whose probability is inferred to be near 1). For the sampling based approach, on the other hand, this represents a very small drop in activity. Thus, for the variational algorithm the average activity associated with the absent odors exhibits a large drop, whereas for the sampling based approach the average activity associated with the absent odors starts small and stays small. 5 Discussion We introduced two algorithms for inferring odors from the activity of the odorant receptor neurons. One was a variational method; the other sampling based. We mapped both algorithms onto dynamical systems, and, assuming time constants of 10 ms (plausible for biophysically realistic networks), tested the time course of the inference. The two algorithms performed with striking similarity: they both inferred odors within about 100 ms and they both had about the same accuracy. However, since the two methods encode probabilities differently (linear vs logarithmic encoding), they can be differentiated at the level of neural activity. As can be seen by examining Eqs. (3.4a) and (3.4c), for variational inference the log probability of concentration and presence/absence are related to the dynamical variables via log Q(cj ) ? ?1j log cj ? ?1j cj (5.1a) log Q(sj ) ? Lj sj (5.1b) where ? indicates equality within a constant. If we interpret ?0j and Lj as firing rates, then these equations correspond to a linear probabilistic population code [10]: the log probability inferred by the approximate algorithm is linear in firing rate, with a parameter-dependent offset (the term ??1j cj in Eq. (5.1a)). For the sampling-based algorithm, on the other hand, activity generates samples from the posterior; an average of those samples codes for the probability of an odor being present. Thus, if the olfactory system uses variational inference, activity should code for log probability, whereas if it uses sampling, activity should code for probability. 6 Variational 0.5 0 2 odors <p(s=1)> <p(s=1)> 0.5 3 odors 3 odors 1 <p(s=1)> <p(s=1)> 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 4 odors 1 4 odors 1 <p(s=1)> <p(s=1)> 2 odors 1 0 0.5 0 0.5 0 5 odors 1 5 odors 1 <p(s=1)> <p(s=1)> 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0 1 odor 1 <p(s=1)> <p(s=1)> Sampling 1 odor 1 20 40 60 80 0.5 0 0 100 200 400 600 800 1000 Time [ms] Time [ms] Figure 3: Inference by networks ? initial 100 ms. Black: average value of the probability of correct odors; red: probability of the most likely non-presented odor; green: average probability of the nonpresented odors. Shaded areas represent 25th?75th percentile of values across 400 olfactory scenes. In the variational approach, values are often either 0 or 1, which makes it possible for the mean to land outside of the chosen percentile range; this happens whenever the odors are guessed correctly more than 75% of the time, in which case the 25th?75th percentile collapses to 1, or less than 25% of the time, in which case the 25th?75th percentile collapses to 0. The left panel shows variational inference, where we plot ?j (t); the right one shows sampling, where we plot sk (t) averaged over 20 repetitions of the algorithm (to avoid arbitrariness in decoding/smoothing/averaging the samples). Both methods exceed template matching within 20 ms (dashed line). (Template matching finds odors (the j?s) that maximize the dot product between the activity, ri , and the weights, wij , associated, P P 2 P 2 1/2 with odor j; that is, it chooses j?s that maximize i ri wij / . The number of i ri i wij odors chosen by template matching was set to the number of odors presented.) For more complex mixtures, sampling is slightly more efficient at inferring the presented odors. See Supplementary Material for the time course out to 1 second and for mixtures of up to 10 odors. 7 Variational Sampling 3 odors ?5 ? L 3 odors 1 0 0.5 ?10 0 20 40 60 80 0 0 100 20 40 60 80 100 Time [ms] Time [ms] Figure 4: Average time course of log(p(s)) (left) and p(s) (right, same as in Fig. 3). For the variational algorithm, the activity of the neurons codes for log probability (relative to some background to keep firing rates non-negative). For this algorithm, the drop in probability of the non-presented odors from about e?5 to e?12 corresponds to a large drop in firing rate. For the sampling based algorithm, on the other hand, activity codes for probability, and there is almost no drop in activity. There are two ways to determine which. One is to note that for the variational algorithm there is a large drop in the average activity of the neurons coding for the non-present odors (Fig. 4 and Supplementary Figure 2). This drop could be detected with electrophysiology. The other focuses on the present odors, and requires a comparison between the posterior probability inferred by an animal and neural activity. The inferred probability can be measured by so-called ?opt-out? experiments [11]; the latter by sticking an electrode into an animal?s head, which is by now standard. The two algorithms also make different predictions about the activity coding for concentration. For the variational approach, activity, ?0j , codes for the parameters of a probability distribution. Importantly, in the variational scheme the mean and variance of the distribution are tied ? both are proportional to activity. Sampling, on the other hand, can represent arbitrary concentration distributions. These two schemes could, therefore, be distinguished by separately manipulating average concentration and uncertainty ? by, for example, showing either very similar or very different odors. Unfortunately, it is not clear where exactly one needs to stick the electrode to record the trace of the olfactory inference. A good place to start would be the olfactory bulb, where odor representations have been studied extensively [12, 13, 14]. For example, the dendro-dendritic connections observed in this structure [4] are particularly well suited to meet the symmetry requirements on wij . We note in passing that these connections have been the subject of many theoretical studies. Most, however, considered single odors [15, 6, 16], for which one does not need a complicated inference process An early notable exception to the two-odor standard was Zhaoping [17], who proposed a model for serial analysis of complex mixtures, whereby higher cortical structures would actively adapt the already recognized components and send a feedback signal to the lower structures. Exactly how her network relates to our inference algorithms remains unclear. We should also point out that although the olfactory bulb is a likely location for at least part of our two inference algorithms, both are sufficiently complicated that they may need to be performed by higher cortical structures, such as the anterior piriform cortex, [18, 19]. Future directions. We have made several unrealistic assumptions in this analysis. For instance, the generative model was very simple: we assumed that concentrations added linearly, that weights were binary (so that each odor activated a subset of the olfactory receptor neurons at a finite value, and did not activate the rest at all), and that noise was Poisson. None of these are likely to be exactly true. And we considered priors such that all odors were independent. This too is unlikely to be true ? for instance, the set of odors one expects in a restaurant are very different than the ones one expects in a toxic waste dump, consistent with the fact that responses in the olfactory bulb are modulated by task-relevant behavior [20]. Taking these effects into account will require a more complicated, almost certainly hierarchical, model. We have also focused solely on inference: we assumed that the network knew perfectly both the mapping from odors to odorant receptor neurons and the priors. In fact, both have to be learned. Finally, the neurons in our network had to implement relatively complicated nonlinearities: logs, exponents, and digamma and quadratic functions, and neurons had to be reciprocally connected. Building a network that can both exhibit the proper nonlinearities (at least approximately) and learn the reciprocal weights is challenging. While these issues are nontrivial, they do not appear to be insurmountable. We expect, therefore, that a more realistic model will retain many of the features of the simple model we presented here. 8 References [1] J. Fiser, P. Berkes, G. Orban, and M. Lengyel. Statistically optimal perception and learning: from behavior to neural representations. Trends Cogn. Sci. (Regul. Ed.), 14(3):119?130, Mar 2010. [2] R. Vincis, O. Gschwend, K. Bhaukaurally, J. Beroud, and A. Carleton. Dense representation of natural odorants in the mouse olfactory bulb. Nat. Neurosci., 15(4):537?539, Apr 2012. [3] Jeff Beck, Katherine Heller, and Alexandre Pouget. Complex inference in neural circuits with probabilistic population codes and topic models. In NIPS, 2012. [4] W. Rall and G. M. Shepherd. Theoretical reconstruction of field potentials and dendrodendritic synaptic interactions in olfactory bulb. J. Neurophysiol., 31(6):884?915, Nov 1968. [5] Shepherd GM, Chen WR, and Greer CA. The synaptic organization of the brain, volume 4, chapter Olfactory bulb, pages 165?216. Oxford University Press Oxford, 2004. [6] A. A. Koulakov and D. Rinberg. Sparse incomplete representations: a potential role of olfactory granule cells. Neuron, 72(1):124?136, Oct 2011. [7] Shawn Olsen, Vikas Bhandawat, and Rachel Wilson. Divisive normalization in olfactory population codes. Neuron, 66(2):287?299, 2010. [8] P. Mombaerts. Genes and ligands for odorant, vomeronasal and taste receptors. Nat. Rev. Neurosci., 5(4):263?278, Apr 2004. [9] D. G. Laing and G. W. Francis. The capacity of humans to identify odors in mixtures. Physiol. Behav., 46(5):809?814, Nov 1989. [10] W. J. Ma, J. M. Beck, P. E. Latham, and A. Pouget. Bayesian inference with probabilistic population codes. Nat. Neurosci., 9(11):1432?1438, Nov 2006. [11] R. Kiani and M. N. Shadlen. Representation of confidence associated with a decision by neurons in the parietal cortex. Science, 324(5928):759?764, May 2009. [12] G. Laurent, M. Stopfer, R. W. Friedrich, M. I. Rabinovich, A. Volkovskii, and H. D. Abarbanel. Odor encoding as an active, dynamical process: experiments, computation, and theory. Annu. Rev. Neurosci., 24:263?297, 2001. [13] H. Spors and A. Grinvald. Spatio-temporal dynamics of odor representations in the mammalian olfactory bulb. Neuron, 34(2):301?315, Apr 2002. [14] Kevin Cury and Naoshige Uchida. Robust odor coding via inhalation-coupled transient activity in the mammalian olfactory bulb. Neuron, 68(3):570?585, 2010. [15] Z. Li and J. J. Hopfield. Modeling the olfactory bulb and its neural oscillatory processings. Biol Cybern, 61(5):379?392, 1989. [16] Y. Yu, T. S. McTavish, M. L. Hines, G. M. Shepherd, C. Valenti, and M. Migliore. Sparse distributed representation of odors in a large-scale olfactory bulb circuit. PLoS Comput. Biol., 9(3):e1003014, 2013. [17] Z. Li. A model of olfactory adaptation and sensitivity enhancement in the olfactory bulb. Biol Cybern, 62(4):349?361, 1990. [18] Julie Chapuis and Donald Wilson. Bidirectional plasticity of cortical pattern recognition and behavioral sensory acuity. Nature neuroscience, 15(1):155?161, 2012. [19] Keiji Miura, Zachary Mainen, and Naoshige Uchida. Odor representations in olfactory cortex: distributed rate coding and decorrelated population activity. Neuron, 74(6):1087?1098, 2012. [20] R. A. Fuentes, M. I. Aguilar, M. L. Aylwin, and P. E. Maldonado. Neuronal activity of mitraltufted cells in awake rats during passive and active odorant stimulation. J. Neurophysiol., 100(1):422?430, Jul 2008. 9
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Recurrent linear models of simultaneously-recorded neural populations Marius Pachitariu, Biljana Petreska, Maneesh Sahani Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London, UK {marius,biljana,maneesh}@gatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract Population neural recordings with long-range temporal structure are often best understood in terms of a common underlying low-dimensional dynamical process. Advances in recording technology provide access to an ever-larger fraction of the population, but the standard computational approaches available to identify the collective dynamics scale poorly with the size of the dataset. We describe a new, scalable approach to discovering low-dimensional dynamics that underlie simultaneously recorded spike trains from a neural population. We formulate the Recurrent Linear Model (RLM) by generalising the Kalman-filter-based likelihood calculation for latent linear dynamical systems to incorporate a generalised-linear observation process. We show that RLMs describe motor-cortical population data better than either directly-coupled generalised-linear models or latent linear dynamical system models with generalised-linear observations. We also introduce the cascaded generalised-linear model (CGLM) to capture low-dimensional instantaneous correlations in neural populations. The CGLM describes the cortical recordings better than either Ising or Gaussian models and, like the RLM, can be fit exactly and quickly. The CGLM can also be seen as a generalisation of a lowrank Gaussian model, in this case factor analysis. The computational tractability of the RLM and CGLM allow both to scale to very high-dimensional neural data. 1 Introduction Many essential neural computations are implemented by large populations of neurons working in concert, and recent studies have sought both to monitor increasingly large groups of neurons [1, 2] and to characterise their collective behaviour [3, 4]. In this paper we introduce a new computational tool to model coordinated behaviour in very large neural data sets. While we explicitly discuss only multi-electrode extracellular recordings, the same model can be readily used to characterise 2-photon calcium-marker image data, EEG, fMRI or even large-scale biologically-faithful simulations. Populational neural data may be represented at each time point by a vector yt with as many dimensions as neurons, and as many indices t as time points in the experiment. For spiking neurons, yt will have positive integer elements corresponding to the number of spikes fired by each neuron in the time interval corresponding to the t-th bin. As others have before [5, 6], we assume that the coordinated activity reflected in the measurement yt arises from a low-dimensional set of processes, collected into a vector xt , which is not directly observed. However, unlike the previous studies, we construct a recurrent model in which the hidden processes xt are driven directly and explicitly by the measured neural signals y1 . . . yt?1 . This assumption simplifies the estimation process. We assume for simplicity that xt evolves with linear dynamics and affects the future state of the neural signal yt in a generalised-linear manner, although both assumptions may be relaxed. As in the latent dynamical system, the resulting model enforces a ?bottleneck?, whereby predictions of yt based on y1 . . . yt?1 must be carried by the low-dimensional xt . 1 State prediction in the RLM is related to the Kalman filter [7] and we show in the next section a formal equivalence between the likelihoods of the RLM and the latent dynamical model when observation noise is Gaussian distributed. However, spiking data is not well modelled as Gaussian, and the generalisation of our approach to Poisson noise leads to a departure from the latent dynamical approach. Unlike latent linear models with conditionally Poisson observations, the parameters of our model can be estimated efficiently and without approximation. We show that, perhaps in consequence, the RLM can provide superior descriptions of neural population data. 2 From the Kalman filter to the recurrent linear model (RLM) Consider a latent linear dynamical system (LDS) model with linear-Gaussian observations. Its graphical model is shown in Fig. 1A. The latent process is parametrised by a dynamics matrix A and innovations covariance Q that describe the evolution of the latent state xt : P (xt |xt?1 ) = N (xt |Axt?1 , Q) , where N (x|?, ?) represents a normal distribution on x with mean ? and (co)variance ?. For brevity, we omit here and below the special case of the first time-step, in which x1 is drawn from a multivariate Gaussian. The output distribution is determined by an observation loading matrix C and a noise covariance R often taken to be diagonal so that all covariance is modelled by the latent process: P (yt |xt ) = N (yt |Cxt , R) . In the LDS, the joint likelihood of the observations {yt } can be written as the product: T Y P (y1 . . . yT ) = P (y1 ) P (yt |y1 . . . yt?1 ) t=2 and in the Gaussian case can be computed using the usual Kalman filter approach to find the conditional distributon at time t iteratively: Z P (yt+1 |y1 . . . yt ) = dxt+1 P (yt+1 |xt+1 )P (xt+1 |y1 . . . yt ) Z ? t , Vt+1 ) = dxt+1 N (yt+1 |Cxt+1 , R) N (xt+1 |Ax ? t , CVt+1 C > + R) , = N (yt+1 |CAx ? t = E [xt |y1 . . . yt ] and (predictive) unwhere we have introduced the (filtered) state estimate x  ? t )2 |y1 . . . yt . Both quantities are computed recursively using the certainty Vt+1 = E (xt+1 ? Ax Kalman gain Kt = Vt C > (CVt C > + R)?1 , giving the following recursive recipe to calculate the conditional likelihood of yt+1 : ? t = Ax ? t?1 + Kt (yt ? y?t ) x Vt+1 = A(I ? Kt C)Vt A> + Q ?t y?t+1 = CAx P (yt+1 |y1 . . . yt ) = N (yt+1 |y?t+1 , CVt+1 C > + R) For the Gaussian LDS, the Kalman gain Kt and state uncertainty Vt+1 (and thus the output covariance CVt+1 C > + R) depend on the model parameters (A, C, R, Q) and on the time step?although as time grows they both converge to stationary values. Neither depends on the observations. Thus, we might consider a relaxation of the Gaussian LDS model in which these matrices are taken to be stationary from the outset, and are parametrised independently so that they are no longer constrained to take on the ?correct? values as computed for Kalman inference. Let us call this parametric form of the Kalman gain W and the parametric form of the output covariance S. Then the conditional likelihood iteration becomes ? t = Ax ? t?1 + W (yt ? y?t ) x ?t y?t+1 = CAx P (yt+1 |y1 . . . yt ) = N (yt+1 |y?t+1 , S) . 2 A A x1 C C y1 B x0 y1 x1 x2 CA y1 ?2 W CA y2 xT C y3 x1 A ? ? ? C y2 A A x3 y2 ?1 C x0 A x2 yT xT -1 ? ? ? ?3 ?T -1 y3 A W x2 CA yT A ? ? ? W A W y3 xT -1 CA yT Figure 1: Graphical representations of the latent linear dynamical system (LDS: A, B) and recurrent linear model (RLM: C). Shaded LDS variables are observed, unshaded ? ? ? circles are latent random variables ? ? ? ? and squares are variables that depend deterministically on their parents. In B the LDS is redrawn in terms of the random innovations ?t = xt ? Axt?1 , facilitating the transition towards the RLM. The RLM RLM is then obtained by replacing ?t with a deterministically derived estimate W (yt ? y?t ). ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? The parameters of this new model are A, C, W and S. This is a relaxation of the Gaussian latent LDS model because W has more degrees of freedom than Q, as does S than R (at least if R is constrained to be diagonal). The new model has a recurrent linear structure in that the random ?t. observation yt is fed back linearly to perturb the otherwise deterministic evolution of the state x A graphical representation of this model is shown in Fig. 1C, along with a redrawn graph of the LDS model. The RLM can be viewed as replacing the random innovation variables ?t = xt ? Axt?1 with data-derived estimates W (yt ? y?t ); estimates which are made possible by the fact that ?t contributes to the variability of yt around y?t . 3 Recurrent linear models with Poisson observations The discussion above has transformed a stochastic-latent LDS model with Gaussian output to an RLM with deterministic latent, but still with Gaussian output. Our goal, however, is to fit a model with an output distribution better suited to the binned point-processes that characterise neural spiking. Both linear Kalman-filtering steps above and the eventual stationarity of the inference parameters depend on the joint Gaussian structure of the assumed LDS model. They would not apply if we were to begin a similar derivation from an LDS with Poisson output. However, a tractable approach to modelling point-process data with low-dimensional temporal structure may be provided by introducing a generalised-linear output stage directly to the RLM. This model is given by: ? t = Ax ? t?1 + W (yt ? y?t ) x ?t g(y?t+1 ) = CAx P (yt+1 |y1 . . . yt ) = ExpFam(yt+1 |y?t+1 ) (1) where ExpFam is an exponential-family distribution such as Poisson, and the element-wise link function g allows for a nonlinear mapping from xt to the predicted mean y?t+1 . In the following, we ? t ). will write f for the inverse-link as is more common for neural models, so that y?t+1 = f(CAx The simplest Poisson-based generalised-linear RLM might take as its output distribution Y ? t?1 )) , P (yt |y?t ) = Poisson(yti |? yti ); y?t = f(CAx i where yti is the spike count of the ith cell in bin t and the function f is non-negative. However, comparison with the output distribution derived for the Gaussian RLM suggests that this choice would fail to capture the instantaneous covariance that the LDS formulation transfers to the output distribution (and which appears in the low-rank structure of S above). We can address this concern in two ways. One option is to bin the data more finely, thus diminishing the influence of the instantaneous covariance. The alternative is to replace the independent Poissons with a correlated output distribution on spike counts. The cascaded generalised-linear model introduced below is a natural choice, and we will show that it captures instantaneous correlations faithfully with very few hidden dimensions. 3 In practice, we also sometimes add a fixed input ?t to equation 1 that varies in time and determines the average behavior of the population or the peri-stimulus time histogram (PSTH). y?t+1 = f (?t + CAxt ) Note that the matrices A and C retain their interpretation from the LDS models. The matrix A controls the evolution of the dynamical process xt . The phenomenology of its dynamics is determined by the complex eigenvalues of A. Eigenvalues with moduli close to 1 correspond to long timescales of fluctuation around the PSTH. Eigenvalues with non-zero imaginary part correspond to oscillatory components. Finally, the dynamics will be stable iff all the eigenvalues lie within the unit disc. The matrix C describes the dependence of the high-dimensional neural signals on the lowdimensional latent processes xt . In particular, equation 2 determines the firing rate of the neurons. This generalised-linear stage ensures that the firing rates are positive through the link function f, and the observation process is Poisson. For other types of data, the generalised-linear stage might be replaced by other appropriate link functions and output distributions. 3.1 Relationship to other models RLMs are related to recurrent neural networks [8]. The differences lie in the state evolution, which in the neural network is nonlinear: xt = h (Axt?1 + W yt?1 ); and in the recurrent term which depends on the observation rather than the prediction error. On the data considered here, we found that using sigmoidal or threshold-linear functions h resulted in models comparable in likelihood to the RLM, and so we restricted our attention to simple linear dynamics. We also found that using the prediction error term W (yt?1 ? y?t ) resulted in better models than the simple neural-net formulation, and we attribute this difference to the link between the RLM and Kalman inference. It is also possible to work within the stochatic latent LDS framework, replacing the Gaussian output distribution with a generalised-linear Poisson output (e.g. [6]). The main difficulty here is the intractability of the estimation procedure. For an unobserved latent process xt , an inference procedure needs to be devised to estimate the posterior distribution on the entire sequence x1 . . . xt . For linear-Gaussian observations, this inference is tractable and is provided by Kalman smoothing. However, with generalised-linear observations, inference becomes intractable and the necessary approximations [6] are computationally intense and can jeopardize the quality of the fitted models. By contrast, in the RLM xt is a deterministic function of data. In effect, the Kalman filter has been built into the model as the accurate estimation procedure, and efficient fitting is possible by direct gradient ascent on the log-likelihood. Empirically we did not encounter difficulties with local minima during optimization, as has been reported for LDS models fit by approximate EM [9]. Multiple restarts from different random values of the parameters always led to models with similar likelihoods. Note that to estimate the matrices A and W the gradient must be backpropagated through successive iterations of equation 1. This technique, known as backpropagation-through-time, was first described by [10] as a technique to fit recurrent neural network models. Recent implementations have demonstrated state-of-the-art language models [11]. Backpropagation-through-time is thought to be inherently unstable when propagated past many timesteps and often the gradient is truncated prematurely [11]. We found that using large values of momentum in the gradient ascent alleviated these instabilities and allowed us to use backpropagation without the truncation. 4 The cascaded generalised-linear model (CGLM) The link between the RLM and the LDS raises the possibility that a model for simultaneouslyrecorded correlated spike counts might be derived in a similar way, starting from a non-dynamical, but low-dimensional, Gaussian model. Stationary models of population activity have attracted recent interest for their own sake (e.g. [1]), and would also provide a way model correlations introduced by common innovations that were neglected by the simple Poisson form of the RLM. Thus, we consider vectors y of spike counts from N neurons, without explicit reference to the time at which they were collected. A Gaussian model for y can certainly describe correlations between the cells, but is ill-matched to discrete count observations. Thus, as with the derivation of the RLM from the Kalman filter, we derive here a new generalisation of a low-dimensional, structured Gaussian model to spike count data. 4 The distribution of any multivariate variable y can be factorized into a ?cascaded? product of multiple one-dimensional distributions: P (y) = N Y P (yn |y<n ) . (2) n=1 Here n indexes the neurons up to the last neuron N , and y<n is the (n?1)-vector [y1 . . . yn?1 ]. For a Gaussian-distributed y, the conditionals P (yn |y<n ) would be linear-Gaussian. Thus, we propose the ?cascaded generalised linear model? (CGLM) in which each such one-dimensional conditional distribution is a generalised-linear model:  y?n = f ?n + SnT y<n (3) P (yn |y<n ) = ExpFam (? yn ) and in which the linear weights Sn take on a structured form developed below. (4) The equations 3 and 4 subsume the Gaussian distribution with arbitrary covariance in the case that f is linear, and the ExpFam conditionals are Gaussian. In this case, for a joint covariance of ?, it is straightforward to derive the expression 1 ?1 Sn = (5) ?1 (??n,?n )n,<n . (??n,?n )n,n where the subscripts < n and ? n restrict the matrix to the first (n ? 1) and n rows and/or columns respectively. Thus, we might construct suitably structured linear weights for the CGLM by applying this result to the covariance matrix induced by the low-dimensional Gaussian model known as factor analysis [12]. Factor analysis assumes that data are generated from a K-dimensional latent process x ? N (0, I), where I is the K?K identity matrix, and y has the conditional distribution P (y|x) = N (?x, ?) with ? a diagonal matrix and ? an N ? K loading matrix. This leads to a covariance of y given by ? = ? + ??T . If we repeat the derivation of equations 3, 4 and 5 for this covariance matrix, we obtain an expression for Sn via the matrix inversion lemma: ?1 1 T Sn = ?1 ??n,?n + ??n,? ??n,? n,<n (??n,?n )n,n   1 ?1 ?1 T ?1 = ? ? ? ? (? ? ?) ? ? (6) <n,? <n,? <n,<n ?n,?n ?n,?n ?1 n,<n (??n,?n )n,n  T   1 ??1 ? ?n,? (? ? ?) ???1 ?n,? =? ?1 n,<n (??n,?n )n,n where the omitted factor (? ? ? ) is a K ? K matrix. The first term in equation 6 vanishes because it involves only the off-diagonal entries of ?. The surviving factor shows that Sn is formed by taking a linear combination of the columns of ??1 ? and then truncating to the first n ? 1 elements. Thus, if we arrange all Sn as the upper columns of an N ? N matrix S, we can write S = upper zwT for some low-dimensional matrices z = ??1 ? and w, where the operation upper extracts the strictly upper triangular part of a matrix. This is the natural structure imposed on the cascaded conditionals by factor analysis. Thus, we adopt the same constraint on S in the case of generalisedlinear observations. The resulting (CGLM) is shown below to provide better fits to binarized neural data than standard Ising models (see the Results section), even with as few as three latent dimensions. Another useful property of the CGLM is that it allows stimulus-dependent inputs in equation 3. The CGLM can also be used in combination with the generalised-linear RLM, with the CGLM replacing the otherwise independent observation model. This approach can be useful when large bins are used to discretize spike trains. In both cases the model can be estimated quickly with standard gradient ascent techniques. 5 5.1 Alternative models Alternative for temporal interactions: causally-coupled generalised linear model One popular and simple model of simultaneously recorded neuronal populations [3] constructs temporal dependencies between units by directly coupling each neuron?s probability of firing to the past 5 spikes in the entire population: yt ? Poisson(f(?t + N X Bi (hi ? yt ))) i=1 Here, hi ? yt are convolutions of the spike trains with a set of basis functions hi , and Bi are pairwise interaction weights. Each matrix Bi has N 2 parameters where N is the number of neurons, so the number of parameters grows quadratically with the population size. This type of scaling makes the model prohibitive to use with very large-scale array recordings. Even with aggresive regularization techniques, the model?s parameters are difficult to identify with limited amounts of data. Perhaps more importantly, the model does not have a physical interpretation. Neurons recorded in cortex are rarely directly-connected and retinal ganglion cells almost never directly connect to each other. Instead, such directly-coupled GLMs are used to describe so-called ?functional? interactions between neurons [3]. We believe a much better interpretation for the correlations observed between pairs of neurons is that they are caused by common inputs to these neurons which seem often to be confined to a small number of dimensions. The models we propose here, the RLM and the CGLM, are aimed at discovering such inputs. 5.2 Alternative for instantaneous interactions: the Ising model Instantaneous interactions between binary data (as would be obtained by counting spikes in short intervals) can be modelled in terms of their pairwise interactions [1] embodied in the Ising model: 1 yT Jy e . (7) Z where J is a pairwise interaction matrix and Z is the partition function, or the normalization constant of the model. The model?s attractiveness is that for a given covariance structure it makes the weakest possible assumptions about the distribution of y, that is, like a Gaussian for continuous data, it has the largest possible entropy under the covariance constraint. However, the Ising model and the so-called functional interactions J have no physical interpretation when applied to neural data. Furthermore, Ising models are difficult to fit as they require estimates of the gradients of the partition function Z; they also suffer from the same quadratic scaling in number of paramters as does the directly-coupled GLM. Ising models are even harder to estimate when stimulus-dependent inputs are added in equation 7, but for data collected in the retina or other sensory areas [1], much of the covariation in y may be expected to arise from common stimulus input. Another short-coming of the Ising model is that it can only model binarized data and cannot be normalized for integer y-s [6], so either the time bins need to be reduced to ensure no neuron fires more than one spike in a single bin or the spike counts must be capped at 1. P (y) = 6 6.1 Results Simulated data We began by evaluating RLM models fit to simulated data where the true generative parameters were known. Two aspects of the estimated models were of particular interest: the phenomenology of the dynamics (captured by the eigenvalues of the dynamics matrix A) and the relationship between the dynamical subspace and measured neural activity (captured by the output matrix C). We evaluated the agreement between the estimated and generative output matrices by measuring the principal angles between the corresponding subspaces. These report, in succession, the smallest angle achievable between a line in one subspace and a line in the second subspace, once all previous such vectors of maximal agreement have been projected out. Exactly aligned n-dimensional subspaces have all n principal angles equal to 0? . Unrelated low-dimensional subspaces embedded in high dimensions are close to orthogonal and so have principal angles near 90? . We first verified the robustness of maximisation of the generalised-linear RLM likelihood by fitting models to simulated data generated by a known RLM. Fig. 2(a) shows eigenvalues from several simulated RLMs and the eigenvalues recovered by fitting parameters to simulated data. The agreement is generally good. In particular, the qualitative aspects of the dynamics reflected in the absolute values and imaginary parts of the eigenvalues are well characterised. Fig. 2(d) shows that the RLM fits 6 RLM identifies the eigenvalues of diverse PLDS models RLM recovers eigenvalues of simulated dynamics 0.4 0.4 Generative PLDS Identified by RLM Generative PLDS Identified by PLDS Identified by RLM 0.05 Ground truth Identified 0 Imaginary 0.2 Imaginary Imaginary 0.2 RLM identifies the eigenvalues of a PLDS model fit to real data 0.1 0 ?0.2 ?0.2 ?0.4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 ?0.05 ?0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 Real Real (a) 0.8 ?0.1 0.85 1 0.9 (b) Principal angles between ground truth (RLM) and identified subspaces 0.95 1 Real (c) Principal angles between true and identified subspaces Principal angles between PLDS fit to data and identified subspaces 90 90 45 0 PCA GLDS (d) RLM Degrees Degrees Degrees 90 45 0 PCA LDS (e) RLM PLDS 45 0 PCA GLDS RLM (f) Figure 2: Experiments on 100-dimensional simulated data generated from a 5-dimensional latent process. Generating models were Poisson RLM (ad), Poisson LDS with random parameters (cf) and Poisson LDS model with parameters fit to neural data (cf). The models fit were PCA, LDS with Gaussian (LDS/GLDS) or Poisson (PLDS) output, and RLM with Poisson output (RLM). In the upper plots, eigenvalues from different runs are shown in different colors. also recover the subspace defined by the loading matrix C, and do so substantially more accurately than either principal components analysis (PCA) or GLDS models. It is important to note that the likelihoods of LDS models with Poisson observations are difficult to optimise, and so may yield poor results even when fit to within-class data. In practice we did not observe local optima with the RLM or CGLM. We also asked whether the RLM could recover the dynamical properties and latent subspace of data generated by a latent LDS model with Poisson observations. Fig. 2(b) shows that the dynamical eigenvalues of the maximum-likelihood RLM are close to the eigenvalues of generative LDS dynamics, whilst Fig. 2(e) shows that the dynamical subspace is also correctly recovered. Parameters for these simulations were chosen randomly. We then asked whether the quality of parameter identification extended to Poisson-output LDS models with realistic parameters, by generating data from a Poisson-output LDS model that had been fit to a neural recording. As seen in figs. 2(c) and 2(f), the RLM fits remain accurate in this regime, yielding better subspace estimates than either PCA or a Gaussian LDS. 6.2 Array recorded data We next compared the performance of the novel models on neural data. The RLM was compared to the directed-coupled GLM (fit by gradient-based likelihood optimisation) as well as LDS models with Gaussian or Poisson outputs (fit by EM, with a Laplace approximation E-step). The CGLM was compared to the Ising model. We used a dataset of 92 neurons recorded with a Utah array implanted in the premotor and motor cortices of a rhesus macaque monkey performing a delayed center-out reach task. For all comparisons below we use datasets of 108 trials in which the monkey made movements to the same target. We discretized spike trains into time bins of 10ms. The directed-coupled GLM needed substantial regularization in order to make good predictions on held-out test data. Figure 3(a) shows only the best cross-validation result for the GLM, but results without regularization for models with 7 Filtering prediction on test data Likelihood per spike ? baseline (bits) 13 MSEbaseline ? MSE 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 GLM ? SCGLMPLDS10LDS10LDS20RLM10RLM20 RLM3+PSTH baseline = PSTH (low rank) (a) 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Ising rank=1 r=2 r=3 r=4 r=5 (b) Figure 3: a. Predictive performance of various models on test data (higher is better). GLM-type models are helped greatly by self-coupling filters (which the other models do not have). The best model is an RLM with three latent dimensions and a low-rank model of the PSTH (see the supplementary material for more information about this model). Adding self-coupling filters to this model further increases its predictive performance by 5 (not shown). b. The likelihood per spike of Ising models as well as CGLM models with small numbers of hidden dimensions. The CGLM saturates at three dimensions and performs better than Ising models. low-dimensional parametrisation. Performance was measured by the causal mean-squared-error in prediction subtracted from the error of a low-rank smoothed PSTH model (based on a singularvalue decomposition of the matrix of all smoothed PSTHs). The number of dimensions (5) and the standard deviation of the Gaussian smoothing filter (20 ms) were cross-validated to find the best possible PSTH performance. Thus, our evaluation is focuses on each model?s ability to predict trial-to-trial co-variation in firing around the mean. A second measure of performance for the RLM was obtained by studying probabilistic samples obtained from the fitted model. Figure 4 in the supplemental material shows averaged noise crosscorrelograms obtained from a large set of samples. Note that the PSTHs have been subtracted from each trial to reveal only the extra correlation structure that is not repeated amongst trials. Even with few hidden dimensions, the model captures well the full temporal structure of the noise correlations. In the case of the Ising model we binarized the data by replacing all spike counts larger than 1 with 1. The log-likelihood of the Ising model could only be estimated for small numbers of neurons, so for comparison we took only the 30 most active neurons. The measure of performance reported in figure 3(b) is the extra log-likelihood per spike obtained above that of a model that makes constant predictions equal to the mean firing rate of each neuron. The CGLM model with only three hidden dimensions achieves the best generalisation performance, surpassing the Ising model. Similar results for the performance of the CGLM can be seen on the full dataset of 92 neurons with non-binarized data, indicating that three latent dimensions suffice to describe the full space visited by the neuronal population on a trial-by-trial basis. 7 Discussion The generalised-linear RLM model, while sharing motivation with latent LDS model, can be fit more efficiently and without approximation to non-Gaussian data. We have shown improved performance on both simulated data and on population recordings from the motor cortex of behaving monkeys. The model is easily extended to other output distributions (such as Bernoulli or negative binomial), to mixed continuous and discrete data, to nonlinear outputs, and to nonlinear dynamics. For the motor data considered here, the generalised-linear model performed as well as models with further non-linearites. However, preliminary results on data from sensory cortical areas suggests that nonlinear models may be of greater value in other settings. 8 Acknowledgments We thank Krishna Shenoy and members of his lab for generously providing access to data. Funding from the Gatsby Charitable Foundation and DARPA REPAIR N66001-10-C-2010. 8 References [1] E Schneidman, MJ Berry, R Segev, and W Bialek. Weak pairwise correlations imply strongly correlated network states in a neural population. Nature, 440:1007?1012, 2005. [2] Gyorgy Buzsaki. Large-scale recording of neuronal ensembles. NatNeurosci, 7(5):446?51, 2004. [3] J. W. Pillow, J. Shlens, L. Paninski, A. Sher, A. M. Litke, E. J. Chichilnisky, and E. P. Simoncelli. Spatiotemporal correlations and visual signalling in a complete neuronal population. Nature, 454(7207):995? 999, 2008. [4] Mark M. Churchland, Byron M. Yu, Maneesh Sahani, and Krishna V. Shenoy. Techniques for extracting single-trial activity patterns from large-scale neural recordings. CurrOpinNeurobiol, 17(5):609?618, 2007. [5] BM Yu, A Afshar, G Santhanam, SI Ryu, KV Shenoy, and M Sahani. Extracting dynamical structure embedded in neural activity. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 18:1545?1552, 2006. [6] JH Macke, L Bsing, JP Cunningham, BM Yu, KV Shenoy, and M Sahani. Empirical models of spiking in neural populations. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 24:1350?1358, 2011. [7] R.E. Kalman. A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Journal of Basic Engineering, 82(1):35?45, 1960. [8] JL Elman. Finding structure in time. Cognitive Science, 14:179?211, 1990. [9] L Buesing, JH Macke, and M Sahani. Spectral learning of linear dynamics from generalised-linear observations with application to neural population data. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 25, 2012. [10] DE Rumelhart, GE Hinton, and RJ Williams. Learning internal representations by error propagation. Mit Press Computational Models Of Cognition And Perception Series, pages 318?462, 1986. [11] T Mikolov, A Deoras, S Kombrink, L Burget, and JH Cernocky. Empirical evaluation and combination of advanced language modeling techniques. Conference of the International Speech Communication Association, 2011. [12] Christopher M. Bishop. Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer, 2006. 9
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Understanding Dropout Peter Sadowski Department of Computer Science University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92697 [email protected] Pierre Baldi Department of Computer Science University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92697 [email protected] Abstract Dropout is a relatively new algorithm for training neural networks which relies on stochastically ?dropping out? neurons during training in order to avoid the co-adaptation of feature detectors. We introduce a general formalism for studying dropout on either units or connections, with arbitrary probability values, and use it to analyze the averaging and regularizing properties of dropout in both linear and non-linear networks. For deep neural networks, the averaging properties of dropout are characterized by three recursive equations, including the approximation of expectations by normalized weighted geometric means. We provide estimates and bounds for these approximations and corroborate the results with simulations. Among other results, we also show how dropout performs stochastic gradient descent on a regularized error function. 1 Introduction Dropout is an algorithm for training neural networks that was described at NIPS 2012 [7]. In its most simple form, during training, at each example presentation, feature detectors are deleted with probability q = 1 ? p = 0.5 and the remaining weights are trained by backpropagation. All weights are shared across all example presentations. During prediction, the weights are divided by two. The main motivation behind the algorithm is to prevent the co-adaptation of feature detectors, or overfitting, by forcing neurons to be robust and rely on population behavior, rather than on the activity of other specific units. In [7], dropout is reported to achieve state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets. It is also noted that for a single logistic unit dropout performs a kind of ?geometric averaging? over the ensemble of possible subnetworks, and conjectured that something similar may occur also in multilayer networks leading to the view that dropout may be an economical approximation to training and using a very large ensemble of networks. In spite of the impressive results that have been reported, little is known about dropout from a theoretical standpoint, in particular about its averaging, regularization, and convergence properties. Likewise little is known about the importance of using q = 0.5, whether different values of q can be used including different values for different layers or different units, and whether dropout can be applied to the connections rather than the units. Here we address these questions. 2 Dropout in Linear Networks It is instructive to first look at some of the properties of dropout in linear networks, since these can be studied exactly in the most general setting of a multilayer feedforward network described by an underlying acyclic graph. The activity in unit i of layer h can be expressed as: Sih (I) = XX l<h hl l wij Sj j 1 with Sj0 = Ij (1) where the variables w denote the weights and I the input vector. Dropout applied to the units can be expressed in the form Sih = XX l<h hl l l wij ?j Sj with Sj0 = Ij (2) j where ?jl is a gating 0-1 Bernoulli variable, with P (?jl = 1) = plj . Throughout this paper we assume that the variables ?jl are independent of each other, independent of the weights, and independent of the activity of the units. Similarly, dropout applied to the connections leads to the random variables Sih = XX l<h hl hl l ?ij wij Sj with Sj0 = Ij (3) j For brevity in the rest of this paper, we focus exclusively on dropout applied to the units, but all the results remain true for the case of dropout applied to the connections with minor adjustments. For a fixed input vector, the expectation of the activity of all the units, taken over all possible realizations of the gating variables hence all possible subnetworks, is given by: E(Sih ) = XX l<h hl l wij pj E(Sjl ) for h > 0 (4) j with E(Sj0 ) = Ij in the input layer. In short, the ensemble average can easily be computed by hl hl l feedforward propagation in the original network, simply replacing the weights wij by wij pj . 3 3.1 Dropout in Neural Networks Dropout in Shallow Neural Networks Pn Consider first a single logistic unit with n inputs O = ?(S) = 1/(1 + ce??S ) and S = 1 wj Ij . To achieve the greatest level of generality, we assume that the unit produces different outputs OP 1 , . . . , Om , corresponding to different sums S1 . . . , Sm with different probabilities P1 , . . . , Pm ( Pm = 1). In the most relevant case, these outputs and these sums are associated with the m = 2n possible subnetworks of the unit. The probabilities P1 , . . . , Pm could be generated, for instance, by using Bernoulli gating variables, although this isP not necessary for this derivation. It is useful to define the following four quantities: the mean E = Pi Oi ; the mean of the complements P Q E0 = Pi (1 ? Oi ) = 1 ? E; the weighted geometric mean (W GM ) G = i OiPi ; and the Q weighted geometric mean of the complements G0 = i (1 ? Oi )Pi . We also define the normalized weighted geometric mean N W GM = G/(G + G0 ). We can now prove the key averaging theorem for logistic functions: 1 = ?(E(S)) 1 + ce??E(S) (5) 1 1 Q Q = (1?Oi )Pi (1??(Si ))Pi 1 + Q Pi 1 + Q ?(S )Pi (6) N W GM (O1 , . . . , Om ) = To prove this result, we write N W GM (O1 , . . . , Om ) = Oi i ??x The logistic function satisfies the identity [1 ? ?(x)]/?(x) = ce and thus 1 1 P Q ??S P = N W GM (O1 , . . . , Om ) = = ?(E(S)) (7) i i ?? Pi Si 1 + [ce ] 1 + ce Thus in the case of Bernoulli gating variables, we can compute the N WP GM over all possible n dropout configurations by simple forward propagation by: N W GM = ?( 1 wj pj Ij ). A similar result is true also for normalized exponential transfer functions. Finally, one can also show that the only class of functions f that satisfy N W GM (f ) = f (E) are the constant functions and the logistic functions [1]. 2 3.2 Dropout in Deep Neural Networks We can now deal with the most interesting case of deep feedforward networks of sigmoidal units 1 , described by a set of equations of the form Oih = ?(Sih ) = ?( XX hl l wij Oj ) with Oj0 = Ij (8) j l<h where Oih is the output of unit i in layer h. Dropout on the units can be described by Oih = ?(Sih ) = ?( XX l<h hl l l wij ?j Oj ) with Oj0 = Ij (9) j using the Bernoulli selector variables ?jl . For each sigmoidal unit N W GM (Oih ) = Q h P (N ) N (Oi ) Q h P (N ) + N (1 ? N (Oi ) Q Oih )P (N ) (10) where N ranges over all possible subnetworks. Assume for now that the N W GM provides a good approximation to the expectation (this point will be analyzed in the next section). Then the averaging properties of dropout are described by the following three recursive equations. First the approximation of means by NWGMs: E(Oih ) ? N W GM (Oih ) (11) Second, using the result of the previous section, the propagation of expectation symbols:   N W GM (Oih ) = ?ih E(Sih ) (12) And third, using the linearity of the expectation with respect to sums, and to products of independent random variables: E(Sih ) = XX l<h hl l wij pj E(Ojl ) (13) j Equations 11, 12, and 13 are the fundamental equations explaining the averaging properties of the dropout procedure. The only approximation is of course Equation 11 which is analyzed in the next section. If the network contains linear units, then Equation 11 is not necessary for those units and their average can be computed exactly. In the case of regression with linear units in the top layers, this allows one to shave off one layer of approximations. The same is true in binary classification by requiring the output layer to compute directly the N W GM of the ensemble rather than the expectation. It can be shown that for any error function that is convex up (?), the error of the mean, weighted geometric mean, and normalized weighted geometric mean of an ensemble is always less than the expected error of the models [1]. Equation 11 is exact if and only if the numbers Oih are identical over all possible subnetworks N . h Thus it is useful to  measure  the consistency C(Oi , I) of neuron i in layer h for input I by using the variance V ar Oih (I) taken over all subnetworks N and their distribution when the input I is fixed. The larger the variance is, the less consistent the neuron is, and the worse we can expect the approximation in Equation 11 to be. Note that for a random variable O in [0,1] the variance cannot exceed 1/4 anyway. This is because V ar(O) = E(O2 ) ? (E(O))2 ? E(O) ? (E(O))2 = E(O)(1 ? E(O)) ? 1/4. This measure can also be averaged over a training set or a test set. 1 Given the results of the previous sections, the network can also include linear units or normalized exponential units. 3 4 The Dropout Approximation Given a set of numbers O1 , . . . , Om between 0 and 1, with probabilities P1 , . . . , PM (corresponding to the outputs of a sigmoidal neuron for a fixed input and different subnetworks), we are primarily interested in the approximation of E by N W GM . The N W GM provides a good approximation because we show below that to a first order of approximation: E ? N W GM and E ? G. Furthermore, there are formulae in the literature for bounding the error E ? G in terms of the consistency (e.g. the Cartwright and Field inequality [6]). However, one can suspect that the N W GM provides even a better approximation to E than the geometric mean. For instance, if the numbers Oi satisfy 0 < Oi ? 0.5 (consistently low), then G E G ? 0 and therefore G ? ?E (14) G0 E G + G0 This is proven by applying Jensen?s inequality to the function ln x ? ln(1 ? x) for x ? (0, 0.5]. It is also known as the Ky Fan inequality [2, 8, 9]. To get even better results, one must consider a second order approximation. For this, we write Oi = 0.5 + i with 0 ? |i | ? 0.5. Thus we have E(O) = 0.5 + E() and V ar(O) = V ar(). Using a Taylor expansion: ? ? ?   X X pi (pi ? 1) X 1 Y X pi 1 G= (2i )n = ?1 + pi 2i + (2i )2 + 4pi pj i j + R3 (i )? 2 i n=0 n 2 2 i i i<j (15) where R3 (i ) is the remainder and R3 (i ) =   pi (2i )3 3 (1 + ui )3?pi (16) where |ui | ? 2|i |. Expanding the product gives X X 1 X 1 G= + pi i +( i )2 ? pi 2i +R3 () = +E()?V ar()+R3 () = E(O)?V ar(O)+R3 () 2 i 2 i (17) By symmetry, we have G0 = Y (1 ? Oi )pi = 1 ? E(O) ? V ar(O) + R3 () (18) i where R3 () is the higher order remainder. Neglecting the remainder and writing E = E(O) and V = V ar(O) we have G E?V G0 1?E?V ? and ? (19) 0 0 G+G 1 ? 2V G+G 1 ? 2V Thus, to a second order, the differences between the mean and the geometric mean and the normalized geometric means satisfy E?G?V and E ? G V (1 ? 2E) ? 0 G+G 1 ? 2V (20) and G0 V (1 ? 2E) ? (21) 0 G+G 1 ? 2V Finally it is easy to check that the factor (1 ? 2E)/(1 ? 2V ) is always less or equal to 1. In addition we always have V ? E(1 ? E), with equality achieved only for 0-1 Bernoulli variables. Thus 1 ? E ? G0 ? V and (1 ? E) ? 4 V |1 ? 2E| E(1 ? E)|1 ? 2E| G |? ? ? 2E(1 ? E)|1 ? 2E| (22) G + G0 1 ? 2V 1 ? 2V The first inequality is optimal in the sense that it is attained in the case of a Bernoulli variable with expectation E and, intuitively, the second inequality shows that the approximation error is always small, regardless of whether E is close to 0, 0.5, or 1. In short, the NWGM provides a very good approximation to E, better than the geometric mean G. The property is always true to a second order of approximation and it is exact when the activities are consistently low, or when N W GM ? E, since the latter implies G ? N W GM ? E. Several additional properties of the dropout approximation, including the extension to rectified linear units and other transfer functions, are studied in [1]. |E ? 5 Dropout Dynamics Dropout performs gradient descent on-line with respect to both the training examples and the ensemble of all possible subnetworks. As such, and with the appropriately decreasing learning rates, it is almost surely convergent like other forms of stochastic gradient descent [11, 4, 5]. To further understand the properties of dropout, it is again instructive to look at the properties of the gradient in the linear case. 5.1 Single Linear Unit In the case of a single linear unit, consider the two error functions EEN S and ED associated with the ensemble of all possible subnetworks and the network with dropout. For a single input I, these are defined by: EEN S n X 1 1 2 = (t ? OEN S ) = (t ? pi wi Ii )2 2 2 i=1 (23) n X 1 1 (t ? OD )2 = (t ? ?i wi Ii )2 2 2 i=1 (24) ED = We use a single training input I for notational simplicity, otherwise the errors of each training example can be combined additively. The learning gradient is given by ?EEN S ?OEN S = ?(t ? OEN S ) = ?(t ? OEN S )pi Ii ?wi ?wi X ?ED ?OD = ?(t ? OD ) = ?(t ? OD )?i Ii = ?t?i Ii + wi ?i2 Ii2 + wj ?i ?j Ii Ij ?wi ?wi (25) (26) j6=i The dropout gradient is a random variable and we can take its expectation. A short calculation yields  E ?ED ?wi  = ?EEN S ?EEN S + wi pi (1 ? pi )Ii2 + wi Ii2 V ar(?i ) ?wi ?wi (27) Thus, remarkably, in this case the expectation of the gradient with dropout is the gradient of the regularized ensemble error n E = EEN S + 1X 2 2 w I V ar(?i ) 2 i=1 i i (28) The regularization term is the usual weight decay or Gaussian prior term based on the square of the weights to prevent overfitting. Dropout provides immediately the magnitude of the regularization term which is adaptively scaled by the inputs and by the variance of the dropout variables. Note that pi = 0.5 is the value that provides the highest level of regularization. 5 5.2 Single Sigmoidal Unit The previous result generalizes to a sigmoidal unit O = ?(S) = 1/(1 + ce??S ) trained to minimize the relative entropy error E = ?(t log O + (1 ? t) log(1 ? O)). In this case, ?ED ?S = ??(t ? O) = ??(t ? O)?i Ii (29) ?wi ?wi The terms O and Ii are not independent but using a Taylor expansion with the N W GM approximation gives  ?EEN S ?ED ? + ?? 0 (SEN S )wi Ii2 V ar(?i ) (30) E ?wi ?wi P with SEN S = j wj pj Ij . Thus, as in the linear case, the expectation of the dropout gradient is approximately the gradient of the ensemble network regularized by weight decay terms with the proper adaptive coefficients. A similar analysis, can be carried also for a set of normalized exponential units and for deeper networks [1].  5.3 Learning Phases and Sparse Coding During dropout learning, we can expect three learning phases: (1) At the beginning of learning, when the weights are typically small and random, the total input to each unit is close to 0 for all the units and the consistency is high: the output of the units remains roughly constant across subnetworks (and equal to 0.5 with c = 1). (2) As learning progresses, activities tend to move towards 0 or 1 and the consistency decreases, i.e. for a given input the variance of the units across subnetworks increases. (3) As the stochastic gradient learning procedure converges, the consistency of the units converges to a stable value. Finally, for simplicity, assume that dropout is applied only in layer h where the units have an output P hl l l of the form Oih = ?(Sih ) and Sih = l<h wij ?j Oj . For a fixed input, Ojl is a constant since dropout is not applied to layer l. Thus V ar(Sih ) = X hl 2 (wij ) (Ojl )2 plj (1 ? plj ) (31) l<h under the usual assumption that the selector variables ?jl are independent of each other. Thus V ar(Sih ) depends on three factors. Everything else being equal, it is reduced by: (1) Small weights which goes together with the regularizing effect of dropout; (2) Small activities, which shows that dropout is not symmetric with respect to small or large activities. Overall, dropout tends to favor small activities and thus sparse coding; and (3) Small (close to 0) or large (close to 1) values of the dropout probabilities plj . Thus values plj = 0.5 maximize the regularization effect but may also lead to slower convergence to the consistent state. Additional results and simulations are given in [1]. 6 Simulation Results We use Monte Carlo simulation to partially investigate the approximation framework embodied by the three fundamental dropout equations 11, 12, and 13, the accuracy of the second-order approximation and bounds in Equations 20 and 22, and the dynamics of dropout learning. We experiment with an MNIST classifier of four hidden layers (784-1200-1200-1200-1200-10) that replicates the results in [7] using the Pylearn2 and Theano software libraries[12, 3]. The network is trained with a dropout probability of 0.8 in the input, and 0.5 in the four hidden layers. For fixed weights and a fixed input, 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the distribution of activity O in each neuron. Let O? be the activation under the deterministic setting with the weights scaled appropriately. The left column of Figure 1 confirms empirically that the second-order approximation in Equation 20 and the bound in Equation 22 are accurate. The right column of Figure 1 shows the difference between the true ensemble average E(O) and the prediction-time neuron activity O? . This difference grows very slowly in the higher layers, and only for active neurons. 6 Figure 1: Left: The difference E(O) ? N W GM (O), it?s second-order approximation in Equation 20, and the bound from Equation 22, plotted for four hidden layers and a typical fixed input. Right: The difference between the true ensemble average E(O) and the final neuron prediction O? . Next, we examine the neuron consistency during dropout training. Figure 2a shows the three phases of learning for a typical neuron. In Figure 2b, we observe that the consistency does not decline in higher layers of the network. One clue into how this happens is the distribution of neuron activity. As noted in [10] and section 5 above, dropout training results in sparse activity in the hidden layers (Figure 3). This increases the consistency of neurons in the next layer. 7 (a) The three phases of learning. For a particular input, a typical active neuron (red) starts out with low variance, experiences a large increase in variance during learning, and eventually settles to some steady constant value. In contrast, a typical inactive neuron (blue) quickly learns to stay silent. Shown are the mean with 5% and 95% percentiles. (b) Consistency does not noticeably decline in the upper layers. Shown here are the mean Std(O) for active neurons (0.1 < O after training) in each layer, along with the 5% and 95% percentiles. Figure 2 Figure 3: In every hidden layer of a dropout trained network, the distribution of neuron activations O? is sparse and not symmetric. These histograms were totalled over a set of 100 random inputs. 8 References [1] P. Baldi and P. Sadowski. The Dropout Learning Algorithm. Artificial Intelligence, 2014. In press. [2] E. F. Beckenbach and R. Bellman. Inequalities. Springer-Verlag Berlin, 1965. [3] J. Bergstra, O. Breuleux, F. Bastien, P. Lamblin, R. Pascanu, G. Desjardins, J. Turian, D. Warde-Farley, and Y. Bengio. Theano: a CPU and GPU math expression compiler. In Proceedings of the Python for Scientific Computing Conference (SciPy), Austin, TX, June 2010. Oral Presentation. [4] L. Bottou. Online algorithms and stochastic approximations. In D. Saad, editor, Online Learning and Neural Networks. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1998. [5] L. Bottou. Stochastic learning. In O. Bousquet and U. von Luxburg, editors, Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, LNAI 3176, pages 146?168. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2004. [6] D. Cartwright and M. Field. A refinement of the arithmetic mean-geometric mean inequality. Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, pages 36?38, 1978. [7] G. Hinton, N. Srivastava, A. Krizhevsky, I. Sutskever, and R. R. Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.0580, 2012. [8] E. Neuman and J. S?andor. On the Ky Fan inequality and related inequalities i. MATHEMATICAL INEQUALITIES AND APPLICATIONS, 5:49?56, 2002. [9] E. Neuman and J. Sandor. On the Ky Fan inequality and related inequalities ii. Bulletin of the Australian Mathematical Society, 72(1):87?108, 2005. [10] S. Nitish. Improving Neural Networks with Dropout. PhD thesis, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 2013. [11] H. Robbins and D. Siegmund. A convergence theorem for non negative almost supermartingales and some applications. Optimizing methods in statistics, pages 233?257, 1971. [12] D. Warde-Farley, I. Goodfellow, P. Lamblin, G. Desjardins, F. Bastien, and Y. Bengio. pylearn2. 2011. http://deeplearning.net/software/pylearn2. 9
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Annealing Between Distributions by Averaging Moments Roger Grosse Comp. Sci. & AI Lab MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 Chris J. Maddison Dept. of Computer Science University of Toronto Toronto, ON M5S 3G4 Ruslan Salakhutdinov Depts. of Statistics and Comp. Sci., University of Toronto Toronto, ON M5S 3G4, Canada Abstract Many powerful Monte Carlo techniques for estimating partition functions, such as annealed importance sampling (AIS), are based on sampling from a sequence of intermediate distributions which interpolate between a tractable initial distribution and the intractable target distribution. The near-universal practice is to use geometric averages of the initial and target distributions, but alternative paths can perform substantially better. We present a novel sequence of intermediate distributions for exponential families defined by averaging the moments of the initial and target distributions. We analyze the asymptotic performance of both the geometric and moment averages paths and derive an asymptotically optimal piecewise linear schedule. AIS with moment averaging performs well empirically at estimating partition functions of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs), which form the building blocks of many deep learning models. 1 Introduction Many generative models are defined in terms of an unnormalized probability distribution, and computing the probability of a state requires computing the (usually intractable) partition function. This is problematic for model selection, since one often wishes to compute the probability assigned to held-out test data. While partition function estimation is intractable in general, there has been extensive research on variational [1, 2, 3] and sampling-based [4, 5, 6] approximations. In the context of model comparison, annealed importance sampling (AIS) [4] is especially widely used because given enough computing time, it can provide high-accuracy estimates. AIS has enabled precise quantitative comparisons of powerful generative models in image statistics [7, 8] and deep learning [9, 10, 11]. Unfortunately, applying AIS in practice can be computationally expensive and require laborious hand-tuning of annealing schedules. Because of this, many generative models still have not been quantitatively compared in terms of held-out likelihood. AIS requires defining a sequence of intermediate distributions which interpolate between a tractable initial distribution and the intractable target distribution. Typically, one uses geometric averages of the initial and target distributions. Tantalizingly, [12] derived the optimal paths for some toy models in the context of path sampling and showed that they vastly outperformed geometric averages. However, as choosing an optimal path is generally intractable, geometric averages still predominate. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for evaluating alternative paths. We propose a novel path defined by averaging moments of the initial and target distributions. We show that geometric averages and moment averages optimize different variational objectives, derive an asymptotically optimal piecewise linear schedule, and analyze the asymptotic performance of both paths. Our proposed path often outperforms geometric averages at estimating partition functions of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). 1 2 Estimating Partition Functions Suppose we have a probability distribution pb (x) = fb (x)/Zb defined on a space X , where fb (x) can be computed efficiently for a given x ? X , and we are interested in estimating the partition function Zb . Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is an algorithm which estimates Zb by gradually changing, or ?annealing,? a distribution. In particular, one must specify a sequence of K + 1 intermediate distributions pk (x) = fk (x)/Zk for k = 0, . . . K, where pa (x) = p0 (x) is a tractable initial distribution, and pb (x) = pK (x) is the intractable target distribution. For simplicity, assume all distributions are strictly positive on X . For each pk , one must also specify an MCMC transition operator Tk (e.g. Gibbs sampling) which leaves pk invariant. AIS alternates between MCMC transitions and importance sampling updates, as shown in Alg 1. The output of AIS is an unbiased estimate Z?b Algorithm 1 Annealed Importance Sampling of Zb . Remarkably, unbiasedness holds even in for i = 1 to M do the context of non-equilibrium samples along x0 ? sample from p0 (x) the chain [4, 13]. However, unless the intermediate distributions and transition operators are w(i) ? Za carefully chosen, Z?b may have high variance for k = 1 to K do fk (xk?1 ) and be far from Zb with high probability. w(i) ? w(i) fk?1 (xk?1 ) xk ? sample from Tk (x | xk?1 ) The mathematical formulation of AIS leaves end for much flexibility for choosing intermediate disend for tributions. However, one typically defines a PM return Z?b = i=1 w(i) /M path ? : [0, 1] ? P through some family P of distributions. The intermediate distributions pk are chosen to be points along this path corresponding to a schedule 0 = ?0 < ?1 < . . . < ?K = 1. One typically uses the geometric path ?GA , defined in terms of geometric averages of pa and pb : p? (x) = f? (x)/Z(?) = fa (x)1?? fb (x)? /Z(?). (1) ? Commonly, fa is the uniform distribution, and (1) reduces to p? (x) = fb (x) /Z(?). This motivates the term ?annealing,? and ? resembles an inverse temperature parameter. As in simulated annealing, the ?hotter? distributions often allow faster mixing between modes which are isolated in pb . AIS is closely related to a broader family of techniques for posterior inference and partition function estimation, all based on the following identity from statistical physics:   Z 1 d log Zb ? log Za = Ex?p? log f? (x) d?. (2) d? 0 Thermodynamic integration [14] estimates (2) using numerical quadrature, and path sampling [12] does so with Monte Carlo integration. The weight update in AIS can be seen as a finite difference approximation. Tempered transitions [15] is a Metropolis-Hastings proposal operator which heats up and cools down the distribution, and computes an acceptance ratio by approximating (2). The choices of a path and a schedule are central to all of these methods. Most work on adapting paths has focused on tuning schedules along a geometric path [15, 16, 17]. [15] showed that the geometric schedule was optimal for annealing the scale parameter of a Gaussian, and [16] extended this result more broadly. The aim of this paper is to propose, analyze, and evaluate a novel alternative to ?GA based on averaging moments of the initial and target distributions. 3 Analyzing AIS Paths When analyzing AIS, it is common to assume perfect transitions, i.e. that each transition operator Tk returns an independent and exact sample from the distribution pk [4]. This corresponds to the (somewhat idealized) situation where the Markov chains mix quickly. As Neal [4] pointed out, assuming perfect transitions, the Central Limit Theorem shows that the samples w(i) are approximately log-normally distributed. In this case, the variances var(w(i) ) and var(log w(i) ) are both monotonically related to E[log w(i) ]. Therefore, our analysis focuses on E[log w(i) ]. Assuming perfect transitions, the expected log weights are given by: E[log w(i) ] = log Za + K?1 X Epk [log fk+1 (x) ? log fk (x)] = log Zb ? k=0 K?1 X k=0 2 DKL (pk kpk+1 ). (3) In other words, each log w(i) can be seen as a biased estimator of log Zb , where the bias ? = PK?1 log Zb ? E[log w(i) ] is given by the sum of KL divergences k=0 DKL (pk kpk+1 ). Suppose P is a family of probability distributions parameterized by ? ? ?, and the K + 1 distributions p0 , . . . , pK are chosen to be linearly spaced along a path ? : [0, 1] ? P. Let ?(?) represent the parameters of the distribution ?(?). As K is increased, the bias ? decays like 1/K, and the asymptotic behavior is determined by a functional F(?). Theorem 1. Suppose K + 1 distributions pk are linearly spaced along a path ?. Assuming perfect transitions, if ?(?) and the Fisher information matrix G? (?) = covx?p? (?? log p? (x)) are continuous and piecewise smooth, then as K ? ? the bias ? behaves as follows: Z K?1 X 1 1 ? T ? K? = K DKL (pk kpk+1 ) ? F(?) ? ?(?) G? (?)?(?)d?, (4) 2 0 k=0 ? where ?(?) represents the derivative of ? with respect to ?. [See supplementary material for proof.] This result reveals a relationship with path sampling, as [12] showed that the variance of the path sampling estimator is proportional to the same functional. One useful result from their analysis is a derivation of the optimal schedule along a given path. In particular, the value of F(?) using the optimal schedule is given by `(?)2 /2, where ` is the Riemannian path length defined by Z 1q ? T G? (?)?(?)d?. ? `(?) = ?(?) (5) 0 Intuitively, the optimal schedule allocates more distributions to regions where p? changes quickly. While [12] derived the optimal paths and schedules for some simple examples, they observed that this is intractable in most cases and recommended using geometric paths in practice. The above analysis assumes perfect transitions, which can be unrealistic in practice because many distributions have separated modes between which mixing is difficult. As Neal [4] observed, in such cases, AIS can be viewed as having two sources of variance: that caused by variability within a mode, and that caused by misallocation of samples between modes. The former source of variance is well modeled by the perfect transitions analysis and can be made small by adding more intermediate distributions. The latter, however, can persist even with large numbers of intermediate distributions. While our theoretical analysis assumes perfect transitions, our proposed method often gave substantial improvement empirically in situations with poor mixing. 4 Moment Averaging As discussed in Section 2, the typical choice of intermediate distributions for AIS is the geometric averages path ?GA given by (1). In this section, we propose an alternative path for exponential family models. An exponential family model is defined as  1 p(x) = h(x) exp ? T g(x) , (6) Z(?) where ? are the natural parameters and g are the sufficient statistics. Exponential families include a wide variety of statistical models, including Markov random fields. In exponential families, geometric averages correspond to averaging the natural parameters: ?(?) = (1 ? ?)?(0) + ??(1). (7) Exponential families can also be parameterized in terms of their moments s = E[g(x)]. For any minimal exponential family (i.e. one whose sufficient statistics are linearly independent), there is a one-to-one mapping between moments and natural parameters [18, p. 64]. We propose an alternative to ?GA called the moment averages path, denoted ?M A , and defined by averaging the moments of the initial and target distributions: s(?) = (1 ? ?)s(0) + ?s(1). (8) This path exists for any exponential family model, since the set of realizable moments is convex [18]. It is unique, since g is unique up to affine transformation. 3 As an illustrative example, consider a multivariate Gaussian distribution parameterized by the mean ? and covariance ?. The moments are E[x] = ? and ? 21 E[xxT ] = ? 12 (? + ??T ). By plugging these into (8), we find that ?M A is given by: ?(?) = (1 ? ?)?(0) + ??(1) (9) T ?(?) = (1 ? ?)?(0) + ??(1) + ?(1 ? ?)(?(1) ? ?(0))(?(1) ? ?(0)) . (10) In other words, the means are linearly interpolated, and the covariances are linearly interpolated and stretched in the direction connecting the two means. Intuitively, this stretching is a useful property, because it increases the overlap between successive distributions with different means. A comparison of the two paths is shown in Figure 1. Next consider the example of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), a widely used model in deep learning. A binary RBM is a Markov random field over binary vectors v (the visible units) and h (the hidden units), and which has the distribution  p(v, h) ? exp aT v + bT h + vT Wh . (11) The parameters of the model are the visible biases a, the hidden biases b, and the weights W. Since these parameters are also the natural parameters in the exponential family representation, ?GA reduces to linearly averaging the biases and the weights. The sufficient statistics of the model are the visible activations v, the hidden activations h, and the products vhT . Therefore, ?M A is defined by: E[v]? = (1 ? ?)E[v]0 + ?E[v]1 E[h]? = (1 ? ?)E[h]0 + ?E[h]1 Figure 1: Comparison of ?GA and ?M A for multivariate Gaussians: intermediate distribution for ? = 0.5, and ?(?) for ? evenly spaced from 0 to 1. E[vhT ]? = (1 ? ?)E[vhT ]0 + ?E[vhT ]1 (12) (13) (14) For many models of interest, including RBMs, it is infeasible to determine ?M A exactly, as it requires solving two often intractable problems: (1) computing the moments of pb , and (2) solving for model parameters which match the averaged moments s(?). However, much work has been devoted to practical approximations [19, 20], some of which we use in our experiments with intractable models. Since it would be infeasible to moment match every ?k even approximately, we introduce the moment averages spline (MAS) path, denoted ?M AS . We choose a set of R values ?1 , . . . , ?R called knots, and solve for the natural parameters ?(?j ) to match the moments s(?j ) for each knot. We then interpolate between the knots using geometric averages. The analysis of Section 4.2 shows that, under the assumption of perfect transitions, using ?M AS in place of ?M A does not affect the cost functional F defined in Theorem 1. 4.1 Variational Interpretation By interpreting ?GA and ?M A as optimizing different variational objectives, we gain additional insight into their behavior. For geometric averages, the intermediate distribution ?GA (?) minimizes a weighted sum of KL divergences to the initial and target distributions: (GA) p? = arg min (1 ? ?)DKL (qkpa ) + ?DKL (qkpb ). q (15) On the other hand, ?M A minimizes the weighted sum of KL divergences in the reverse direction: (M A) p? = arg min (1 ? ?)DKL (pa kq) + ?DKL (pb kq). q (16) See the supplementary material for the derivations. The objective function (15) is minimized by a distribution which puts significant mass only in the ?intersection? of pa and pb , i.e. those regions which are likely under both distributions. By contrast, (16) encourages the distribution to be spread out in order to capture all high probability regions of both pa and pb . This interpretation helps explain why the intermediate distributions in the Gaussian example of Figure 1 take the shape that they do. In our experiments, we found that ?M A often gave more accurate results than ?GA because the intermediate distributions captured regions of the target distribution which were missed by ?GA . 4 4.2 Asymptotics under Perfect Transitions In general, we found that ?GA and ?M A can look very different. Intriguingly, both paths always result in the same value of the cost functional F(?) of Theorem 1 for any exponential family model. Furthermore, nothing is lost by using the spline approximation ?M AS in place of ?M A : Theorem 2. For any exponential family model with natural parameters ? and moments s, all three paths share the same value of the cost functional: 1 F(?GA ) = F(?M A ) = F(?M AS ) = (?(1) ? ?(0))T (s(1) ? s(0)). (17) 2 Proof. The two parameterizations of exponential satisfy the relationship G? ?? = s? [21, R 1families T? ? s(?) d?. Because ?GA and ?M A linearly sec. 3.3]. Therefore, F(?) can be rewritten as 12 0 ?(?) interpolate the natural parameters and moments respectively, Z 1 1 1 T F(?GA ) = (?(1) ? ?(0)) s? (?) d? = (?(1) ? ?(0))T (s(1) ? s(0)) (18) 2 2 0 Z 1 1 1 ? ?(?) d? = (s(1) ? s(0))T (?(1) ? ?(0)). F(?M A ) = (s(1) ? s(0))T (19) 2 2 0 Finally, to show that F(?M AS ) = F(?M A ), observe that ?M AS uses the geometric path between each pair of knots ?(?j ) and ?(?j+1 ), while ?M A uses the moments path. The above analysis shows the costs must be equal for each segment, and therefore equal for the entire path. This analysis shows that all three paths result in the same expected log weights asymptotically, assuming perfect transitions. There are several caveats, however. First, we have noticed experimentally that ?M A often yields substantially more accurate estimates of Zb than ?GA even when the average log weights are comparable. Second, the two paths can have very different mixing properties, which can strongly affect the results. Third, Theorem 2 assumes linear schedules, and in principle there is room for improvement if one is allowed to tune the schedule. For instance, consider annealing between two Gaussians pa = N (?a , ?) and pb = N (?b , ?). The optimal schedule for ?GA is a linear schedule with cost F(?GA ) = O(d2 ), where d = |?b ? ?a |/?. Using a linear schedule, the moment path also has cost O(d2 ), consistent with Theorem 2. However, most of the cost of the path results from instability near the endpoints, where the variance changes suddenly. Using an optimal schedule, which allocates more distributions near the endpoints, the cost functional falls to O((log d)2 ), which is within a constant factor of the optimal path derived by [12]. (See the supplementary material for the derivations.) In other words, while F(?GA ) = F(?M A ), they achieve this value for different reasons: ?GA follows an optimal schedule along a bad path, while ?M A follows a bad schedule along a near-optimal path. We speculate that, combined with the procedure of Section 4.3 for choosing a schedule, moment averages may result in large reductions in the cost functional for some models. 4.3 Optimal Binned Schedules In general, it is hard to choose a good schedule for a given path. However, consider the set of binned schedules, where the path is divided into segments, some number Kj of intermediate distributions are allocated to each segment, and the distributions are spaced linearly within each segment. Under the assumption of perfect transitions, there is a simple formula for an asymptotically optimal binned schedule which requires only the parameters obtained through moment averaging: Theorem 3. Let ? be any path for an exponential family model defined by a set of knots ?j , each with natural parameters ?j and moments sj , connected by segments of either ?GA or ?M A paths. Then, under the assumption of perfect transitions, an asymptotically optimal allocation of intermediate distributions to segments is given by: q Kj ? (?j+1 ? ?j )T (sj+1 ? sj ). (20) Proof. By Theorem 2, the cost functional for segment j is Fj = 12 (?j+1 ? ?j )T (sj+1 ? sj ). Hence, with Kj distributions allocated to it, it contributes Fj /Kj to the total cost. The pvalues of Kj which P P minimize j Fj /Kj subject to j Kj = K and Kj ? 0 are given by Kj ? Fj . 5 Figure 2: Estimates of log Zb for a normalized Gaussian as K, the number of intermediate distributions, is varied. True value: log Zb = 0. Error bars show bootstrap 95% confidence intervals. (Best viewed in color.) 5 Experimental Results In order to compare our proposed path with geometric averages, we ran AIS using each path to estimate partition functions of several probability distributions. For all of our experiments, we report two sets of results. First, we show the estimates of log Z as a function of K, the number of intermediate distributions, in order to visualize the amount of computation necessary to obtain reasonable accuracy. Second, as recommended by [4], we report the effective sample size (ESS) of the weights for a large K. This statistic roughly measures how many independent samples one obtains using AIS.1 All results are based on 5,000 independent AIS runs, so the maximum possible ESS is 5,000. 5.1 Annealing Between Two Distant Gaussians In our first experiment, the initial distributions were the two Gaussians shown in Fig. 1,   and1target  ?0.85 1 0.85 10 , . As both distributions whose parameters are N ?10 , and N 0.85 1 0 ?0.85 1 0 are normalized, Za = Zb = 1. We compared ?GA and ?M A both under perfect transitions, and using the Gibbs transition operator. We also compared linear schedules with the optimal binned schedules of Section 4.3, using 10 segments evenly spaced from 0 to 1. Figure 2 shows the estimates of log Zb for K ranging from 10 to 1,000. Observe that with 1,000 intermediate distributions, all paths yielded accurate estimates of log Zb . However, ?M A needed fewer intermediate distributions to achieve accurate estimates. For example, with K = 25, ?M A resulted in an estimate within one nat of log Zb , while the estimate based on ?GA was off by 27 nats. This result may seem surprising in light of Theorem 2, which implies that F(?GA ) = F(?M A ) for linear schedules. In fact, the average log weights for ?GA and ?M A were similar for all values of K, as the theorem would suggest; e.g., with K = 25, the average was -27.15 for ?M A and -28.04 for ?GA . However, because the ?M A intermediate distributions were broader, enough samples landed in high probability regions to yield reasonable estimates of log Zb . 5.2 Partition Function Estimation for RBMs Our next set of experiments focused on restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs), a building block of many deep learning models (see Section 4). We considered RBMs trained with three different methods: contrastive divergence (CD) [19] with one step (CD1), CD with 25 steps (CD25), and persistent contrastive divergence (PCD) [20]. All of the RBMs were trained on the MNIST handwritten digits dataset [22], which has long served as a benchmark for deep learning algorithms. We experimented both with small, tractable RBMs and with full-size, intractable RBMs. Since it is hard to compute ?M A exactly for RBMs, we used the moments spline path ?M AS of Section 4 with the 9 knot locations 0.1, 0.2, . . . , 0.9. We considered the two initial distributions discussed by [9]: (1) the uniform distribution, equivalent to an RBM where all the weights and biases are set to 0, and (2) the base rate RBM, where the weights and hidden biases are set to 0, and the visible biases are set to match the average pixel values over the MNIST training set. Small, Tractable RBMs: To better understand the behavior of ?GA and ?M AS , we first evaluated the paths on RBMs with only 20 hidden units. In this setting, it is feasible to exactly compute the (i) (i) 1 The ESS is defined as M/(1 + s2 (w? )) where s2 (w? ) is the sample variance of the normalized weights [4]. In general, one should regard ESS estimates cautiously, as they can give misleading results in cases where an algorithm completely misses an important mode of the distribution. However, as we report the ESS in cases where the estimated partition functions are close to the true value (when known) or agree closely with each other, we believe the statistic is meaningful in our comparisons. 6 Figure 3: Estimates of log Zb for the tractable PCD(20) RBM as K, the number of intermediate distributions, is varied. Error bars indicate bootstrap 95% confidence intervals. (Best viewed in color.) CD1(20) PCD(20) pa (v) path & schedule log Zb log Z?b ESS log Zb log Z?b ESS uniform uniform uniform uniform GA linear GA optimal binned MAS linear MAS optimal binned 279.59 279.60 279.51 279.59 279.60 248 124 2686 2619 178.06 177.99 177.92 178.09 178.08 204 142 289 934 Table 1: Comparing estimates of log Zb and effective sample size (ESS) for tractable RBMs. Results are shown for K = 100,000 intermediate distributions, with 5,000 chains and Gibbs transitions. Bolded values indicate ESS estimates that are not significantly different from the largest value (bootstrap hypothesis test with 1,000 samples at ? = 0.05 significance level). The maximum possible ESS is 5,000. Figure 4: Visible activations for samples from the PCD(500) RBM. (left) base rate RBM, ? = 0 (top) geometric path (bottom) MAS path (right) target RBM, ? = 1. partition function and moments and to generate exact samples by exhaustively summing over all 220 hidden configurations. The moments of the target RBMs were computed exactly, and moment matching was performed with conjugate gradient using the exact gradients. The results are shown in Figure 3 and Table 1. Under perfect transitions, ?GA and ?M AS were both able to accurately estimate log Zb using as few as 100 intermediate distributions. However, using the Gibbs transition operator, ?M AS gave accurate estimates using fewer intermediate distributions and achieved a higher ESS at K = 100,000. To check that the improved performance didn?t rely on accurate moments of pb , we repeated the experiment with highly biased moments.2 The differences in log Z?b and ESS compared to the exact moments condition were not statistically significant. Full-size, Intractable RBMs: For intractable RBMs, moment averaging required approximately solving two intractable problems: moment estimation for the target RBM, and moment matching. We estimated the moments from 1,000 independent Gibbs chains, using 10,000 Gibbs steps with 1,000 steps of burn-in. The moment averaged RBMs were trained using PCD. (We used 50,000 updates with a fixed learning rate of 0.01 and no momentum.) In addition, we ran a cheap, inaccurate moment matching scheme (denoted MAS cheap) where visible moments were estimated from the empirical MNIST base rate and the hidden moments from the conditional distributions of the hidden units given the MNIST digits. Intermediate RBMs were fit using 1,000 PCD updates and 100 particles, for a total computational cost far smaller than that of AIS itself. Results of both methods are 2 In particular, we computed the biased moments from the conditional distributions of the hidden units given the MNIST training examples, where each example of digit class i was counted i + 1 times. 7 Figure 5: Estimates of log Zb for intractable RBMs. Error bars indicate bootstrap 95% confidence intervals. (Best viewed in color.) CD1(500) PCD(500) CD25(500) pa (v) path log Z?b ESS log Z?b ESS log Z?b ESS uniform uniform uniform GA linear MAS linear MAS cheap linear 341.53 359.09 359.09 4 3076 3773 417.91 418.27 418.33 169 620 5 451.34 449.22 450.90 13 12 30 base rate base rate base rate GA linear MAS linear MAS cheap linear 359.10 359.07 359.09 4924 2203 2465 418.20 418.26 418.25 159 1460 359 451.27 451.31 451.14 2888 304 244 Table 2: Comparing estimates of log Zb and effective sample size (ESS) for intractable RBMs. Results are shown for K = 100,000 intermediate distributions, with 5,000 chains and Gibbs transitions. Bolded values indicate ESS estimates that are not significantly different from the largest value (bootstrap hypothesis test with 1,000 samples at ? = 0.05 significance level). The maximum possible ESS is 5,000. shown in Figure 5 and Table 2. Overall, the MAS results compare favorably with those of GA on both of our metrics. Performance was comparable under MAS cheap, suggesting that ?M AS can be approximated cheaply and effectively. As with the tractable RBMs, we found that optimal binned schedules made little difference in performance, so we focus here on linear schedules. The most serious failure was ?GA for CD1(500) with uniform initialization, which underestimated our best estimates of the log partition function (and hence overestimated held-out likelihood) by nearly 20 nats. The geometric path from uniform to PCD(500) and the moments path from uniform to CD1(500) also resulted in underestimates, though less drastic. The rest of the paths agreed closely with each other on their partition function estimates, although some methods achieved substantially higher ESS values on some RBMs. One conclusion is that it?s worth exploring multiple initializations and paths for a given RBM in order to ensure accurate results. Figure 4 compares samples along ?GA and ?M AS for the PCD(500) RBM using the base rate initialization. For a wide range of ? values, the ?GA RBMs assigned most of their probability mass to blank images. As discussed in Section 4.1, ?GA prefers configurations which are probable under both the initial and target distributions. In this case, the hidden activations were closer to uniform conditioned on a blank image than on a digit, so ?GA preferred blank images. By contrast, ?M AS yielded diverse, blurry digits which gradually coalesced into crisper ones. 6 Conclusion We presented a theoretical analysis of the performance of AIS paths and proposed a novel path for exponential families based on averaging moments. We gave a variational interpretation of this path and derived an asymptotically optimal piecewise linear schedule. Moment averages performed well empirically at estimating partition functions of RBMs. We hope moment averaging can also improve other path-based sampling algorithms which typically use geometric averages, such as path sampling [12], parallel tempering [23], and tempered transitions [15]. Acknowledgments This research was supported by NSERC and Quanta Computer. We thank Geoffrey Hinton for helpful discussions. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for thorough and helpful feedback. 8 References [1] J. S. Yedidia, W. T. Freeman, and Y. Weiss. Constructing free-energy approximations and generalized belief propagation algorithms. IEEE Trans. on Inf. Theory, 51(7):2282?2312, 2005. [2] Martin J. Wainwright, Tommi Jaakkola, and Alan S. Willsky. A new class of upper bounds on the log partition function. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51(7):2313?2335, 2005. [3] Amir Globerson and Tommi Jaakkola. Approximate Inference Using Conditional Entropy Decompositions. 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Bayesian Model Comparison and Backprop Nets David J.C. MacKay? Computation and Neural Systems California Institute of Technology 139-14 Pasadena CA 91125 mackayGras.phy.cam.ac.uk Abstract The Bayesian model comparison framework is reviewed, and the Bayesian Occam's razor is explained. This framework can be applied to feedforward networks, making possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms; (3) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output. The framework also generates a measure of the effective number of parameters determined by the data. The relationship of Bayesian model comparison to recent work on prediction of generalisation ability (Guyon et al., 1992, Moody, 1992) is discussed. 1 BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND OCCAM'S RAZOR In science, a central task is to develop and compare models to account for the data that are gathered. Typically, two levels of inference are involved in the task of data modelling. At the first level of inference, we assume that one of the models that we invented is true, and we fit that model to the data. Typically a model includes some free parameters; fitting the model to the data involves inferring what values those parameters should probably take, given the data. This is repeated for each model. The second level of inference is the task of model comparison. Here, ?Current address: Darwin College, Cambridge CB3 9EU, U.K. 839 840 MacKay we wish to compare the models in the light of the data, and assign some sort of preference or ranking to the alternatives. 1 For example, consider the task of interpolating a noisy data set. The data set could be interpolated using a splines model, polynomials, or feedforward neural networks. At the first level of inference, we find for each individual model the best fit interpolant (a process sometimes known as 'learning'). At the second level of inference we want to rank the alternative models and state for our particular data set that, for example, 'splines are probably the best interpolation model', or 'if the interpolant is modelled as a polynomial, it should probably be a cubic', or 'the best neural network for this data set has eight hidden units'. Model comparison is a difficult task because it is not possible simply to choose the model that fits the data best: more complex models can always fit the data better, so the maximum likelihood model choice leads us inevitably to implausible overparameterised models which generalise poorly. 'Occam's razor' is the principle that states that unnecessarily complex models should not be preferred to simpler ones. Bayesian methods automatically and quantitatively embody Occam's razor (Gull, 1988, Jeffreys, 1939), without the introduction of ad hoc penalty terms. Complex models are automatically self-penalising under Bayes' rule. Let us write down Bayes' rule for the two levels of inference described above . Assume each model 1ii has a vector of parameters w. A model is defined by its functional form and two probability distributions: a 'prior' distribution P(WI1ii) which states what values the model's parameters might plausibly take; and the predictions P(Dlw, 1ii) that the model makes about the data D when its parameters have a particular value w. Note that models with the same parameterisation but different priors over the parameters are therefore defined to be different models. 1. Model fitting. At the first level of inference, we assume that one model 1ii is true, and we infer what the model's parameters w might be given the data D. Using Bayes' rule, the posterior probability of the parameters w is: (1) In words: . Likelihood X Prior Postenor = .d EVI ence It is common to use gradient-based methods to find the maximum of the posterior, which defines the most probable value for the parameters, W MP ; it is then common to summarise the posterior distribution by the value of W MP , and error bars on these best fit parameters. The error bars are obtained from the curvature of the posterior; writing the Hessian A = -\7\7 log P(wID, 1ii) and Taylor-expanding the log posterior with ~w w - W MP , = (2) Note that both levels of inference are distinct from decision theory. The goal of inference is, given a defined hypothesis space and a particular data set, to assign probabilities to hypotheses. Decision theory chooses between alternative actions on the basis of these probabilities so as to minimise the expectation of a 'loss function'. 1 Bayesian Model Comparison and Backprop Nets w Figure 1: The Occam factor This figure shows the quantities that determine the Occam factor for a hypothesis 1ii havin? a single parameter w. The prior distribution (dotted line) for the parameter has width Il. w. The posterior distribution (solid line) has a single peak at WMP with characteristic width Il.w. The Occam factor is :b~. we see that the posterior can be locally approximated as a gaussian with covariance matrix (error bars) A -1. 2. Model comparison. At the second level of inference, we wish to infer which model is most plausible given the data. The posterior probability of each model is: P(1i i ID) ex P(DI1i i )P(1i i ) (3) Notice that the objective data-dependent term P(DI1id is the evidence for 1ii, which appeared as the normalising constant in (1). The second term, P(1i i ), is a 'subjective' prior over our hypothesis space. Assuming that we have no reason to assign strongly differing priors P(1ii) to the alternative models, models 1ii are ranked by evaluating the evidence. This concept is very general: the evidence can be evaluated for parametric and 'non-parametric' models alike; whether our data modelling task is a regression problem, a classification problem, or a density estimation problem, the evidence is the Bayesian's transportable quantity for comparing alternative models. In all these cases the evidence naturally embodies Occam's razor, as we will now see. The evidence is the normalising constant for equation (1): P(D l1ii) = J P(Dlw, 1ii)P(wl1id dw (4) For many problems, including interpolation, it is common for the posterior P(wID,1ii) ex P(Dlw,1ij)P(wl1ii) to have a strong peak at the most probable parameters W MP (figure 1). Then the evidence can be approximated by the height of the peak of the integrand P(Dlw, 1ii)P(wl1ii) times its width, ~w: - ,P(D IwMP ' 1ii) ~ y ,P(wMPI1ii) ~w ~ y (5) Evidence - Best fit likelihood Occam factor Thus the evidence is found by taking the best fit likelihood that the model can achieve and multiplying it by an 'Occam factor' (Gull, 1988), which is a term with magnitude less than one that penalises 1ii for having the parameter w. 841 842 MacKay Interpretation of the Occam factor The quantity ~ w is the posterior uncertainty in w. Imagine for simplicity that the prior P(wlllj) is uniform on some large interval ~ow (figure 1), so that P(wMPllli) AJW; then = Occam factor ~w = ~ ow' i.e. the ratio of the posterior accessible volume oflli's parameter space to the prior accessible volume (Gull, 1988, Jeffreys, 1939). The log of the Occam factor can be interpreted as the amount of information we gain abou t the model lli when the data arrive. Typically, a complex or flexible model with many parameters, each of which is free to vary over a large range ~ ow, will be penalised with a larger Occam factor than a simpler model. The Occam factor also penalises models which have to be finely tuned to fit the data. Which model achieves the greatest evidence is determined by a trade-off between minimising this natural complexity measure and minimising the data misfit. Occam factor for several parameters If w is k-dimensional, and if the posterior is well approximated by a gaussian, the Occam factor is given by the determinant of the gaussian's covariance matrix: =- where A VV log P(wID, lli), the Hessian which we already evaluated when we calculated the error bars on W MP . As the amount of data collected, N, increases, this gaussian approximation is expected to become increasingly accurate on account of the central limit theorem. Thus Bayesian model selection is a simple extension of maximum likelihood model selection: the evidence is obtained by multiplying the best fit likelihood by the Occam factor. To evaluate the Occam factor all we need is the Hessian A, if the gaussian approximation is good. Thus the Bayesian method of model comparison by evaluating the evidence is computationally no more demanding than the task of finding for each model the best fit parameters and their error bars. 2 THE EVIDENCE FOR NEURAL NETWORKS Neural network learning procedures include a host of control parameters such as the number of hidden units and weight decay rates. These parameters are difficult to set because there is an Occam's razor problem: if we just set the parameters so as to minimise the error on the training set, we would be led to over-complex and under-regularised models which over-fit the data. Figure 2a illustrates this problem by showing the test error versus the training error of a hundred networks of varying complexity all trained on the same interpolation problem. Bayesian Model Comparison and Backprop Nets Of course if we had unlimited resources, we could compare these networks by measuring the error on an unseen test set or by similar cross-validation techniques. However these techniques may require us to devote a large amount of data to the test set, and may be computationally demanding. If there are several parameters like weight decay rates, it is preferable if they can be optimised on line. Using the Bayesian framework, it is possible for all our data to have a say in both the model fitting and the model comparison levels of inference. We can rank alternative neural network solutions by evaluating the 'evidence'. Weight decay rates can also be optimised by finding the 'most probable' weight decay rate. Alternative weight decay schemes can be compared using the evidence. The evidence also makes it possible to compare neural network solutions with other interpolation models, for example, splines or radial basis functions, and to choose control parameters such as spline order or RBF kernel. The framework can be applied to classification networks as well as the interpolation networks discussed here. For details of the theoretical framework (which is due to Gull and Skilling (1989? and for more complete discussion and bibliography, MacKay (1991) should be consulted. 2.1 THE PROBABILISTIC INTERPRETATION = Fitting a backprop network to a data set D {x, t} often involves minimising an objective function M(w) = {3ED(W; D) + aEw(w). The first term is the data error, for example ED L !(Y - t)2, and the second term is a regulariser (weight L !w~ . (There may be several regularisers with decay term), for example Ew independent constants {a c}. The Bayesian framework also covers that case.) A model 1? has three components {A,N, 'R}: The architecture A specifies the functional dependence of the input-output mapping on the network's parameters w. The noise model N specifies the functional form of the data error. Within the probabilistic interpretation (Tishby et ai., 1989), the data error is viewed as relating to a likelihood, P(Dlw,{3,A,N) exp(-{3ED )/ZD. For example, a quadratic ED corresponds to the assumption that the distribution of errors between the data and the true interpolant is Gaussian, with variance u~ 1/{3. Lastly, the regulariser 'R, with associated regularisation constant a, is interpreted as specifying a exp( -aEw). For example, the use of prior on the parameters w, P(wla,A, 'R) a plain quadratic regulariser corresponds to a Gaussian prior distribution for the parameters. = = = = = Given this probabilistic interpretation, interpolation with neural networks can then be decomposed into three levels of inference: 1 Fitting a regularised model 2a Setting regularisation constants and estimating nOIse level 2 Model comparison P( ID w {3 1?.) ,a, , a = P(Dlw, {3, 1?j)P(wla, 1?i) P(Dla,{3,1id P(a {3ID 1?-) = P(Dla,{3,1?i)P(a, {311?i) , ,a P(DI1ij) Both levels 2a and 2 require Occam's razor. For both levels the key step is to evaluate the evidence P(Dla,{3,1?), which, within the quadratic approximation 843 844 MacKay ... eo .. .. o I ... I ... .'i'~ ? '.. ... .. ...,~. .'\ ..:, J i ... J .. tao ... , ? I .. uo b) ? JOe ... ... _.-... .. ? III Figure 2: The evidence solves the neural networks' Occam problem a) Test error vs. data error. Each point represents the performance of a single trained neural network on the training set and on the test set. This graph illustrates the fact that the best generalisation is not achieved by the models which fit the training data best. b) Log Evidence vs. test error. around w MP , is given by: 1 k log P(Dla,,B, 1-?) = -aEW -,BE~P -210g det A-log Zw(a)-log ZD (,B) + '2 log 27r. (1) At level 2a we can find the most probable value for the regularisation constant a and noise level 1/,B by differentiating (1) with respect to a and ,B. The result is =2aEw = = and X~ 2,BED = N - 'Y, (8) where'Y is 'the effective number of parameters determined by the data' (Gull, 1989), X!. 'Y k 'Y =k - -1 aTraceA: = a=1 ~ A Aa ' a +a " (9) where Aa are the eigenvalues of 'V''V' ,BED in the natural basis of Ew. Each term in the sum is a number between 0 and 1 which measures how well one parameter is determined by the data rather than by the prior. The expressions (8), or approximations to them, can be used to re-estimate weight decay rates on line. The central quantity in the evidence and in 'Y is the inverse hessian kl, which describes the error bars on the parameters w. From this we can also obtain error bars on the outputs of a network (Denker and Le Cun, 1991, MacKay, 1991). These error bars are closely related to the predicted generalisation error calculated by Levin et al.(1989). In (MacKay, 1991) the practical utility of these error bars is demonstrated for both regression and classification networks. Figure 2b shows the Bayesian 'evidence' for each of the solutions in figure 2a against the test error. It can be seen that the correlation between the evidence and the test error is extremely good. This good correlation depends on the model being well-matched to the problem; when an inconsistent weight decay scheme was used (forcing all weights to decay at the same rate), it was found that the correlation between the evidence and the test error was much poorer. Such comparisons between Bayesian and traditional methods are powerful tools for human learning. Bayesian Model Comparison and Backprop Nets 3 RELATION TO THEORIES OF GENERALISATION The Bayesian 'evidence' framework assesses within a well-defined hypothesis space how probable a set of alternative models are. However, what we really want to know is how well each model is expected to generalise. Empirically, the correlation between the evidence and generalisation error is surprisingly good. But a theoretical connection linking the two is not yet established. Here, a brief discussion is given of similarities and differences between the evidence and quantities arising in recent work on prediction of generalisation error. 3.1 RELATION TO MOODY'S 'G.P.E.' Moody's (1992) 'Generalised Prediction Error' is a generalisation of Akaike's 'F .P.E.' to non-linear regularised models. The F .P.E. is an estimator of generalisation error which can be derived without making assumptions about the distribution of errors between the data and true interpolant, and without assuming a known class to which the true interpolant belongs. The difference between F .P.E. and G.P.E. is that the total number of parameters k in F.P.E. is replaced by an effective number of parameters, which is in fact identical to the quantity -y arising in the Bayesian analysis (9). If ED is as defined earlier, G.P.E. = (ED + u~-y) IN. (10) Like the log evidence, the G .P.E. has the form of the data error plus a term that penalises complexity. However, although the same quantity -y arises in the Bayesian analysis, the Bayesian Occam factor does not have the same scaling behaviour as the G.P.E. term (see discussion below). And empirically, the G.P.E. is not always a good predictor of generalisation. The reason for this is that in the derivation of the G.P.E., it is assumed that the distribution over x values is well approximated by a sum of delta functions at the samples in the training set. This is equivalent to assuming test samples will be drawn only at the x locations at which we have already received data. This assumption breaks down for over-parameterised and over-flexible models. An additional distinction that between the G.P.E. and the evidence framework is that the G.P.E. is defined for regression problems only; the evidence can be evaluated for regression, classification and density estimation models. 3.2 RELATION TO THE EFFECTIVE V-C DIMENSION Recent work on 'structural risk minimisation' (Guyon et al., 1992) utilises empirical expressions of the form: E ,...., E IN gen - D + Cl log(NI-y) + C2 N l-y (11) where -y is the 'effective V-C dimension' of the model, and is identical to the quantity arising in (9). The constants Cl and C2 are determined by experiment. The structural risk theory is currently intended to be applied only to nested families of classification models (hence the abscence of (3: ED is dimensionless) with monotonic effective V-C dimension, whereas the evidence can be evaluated for any models. However, it is very interesting that the scaling behaviour of this expression (11) is 845 846 MacKay identical to the scaling behaviour of the log evidence (1), subject to the following assumptions. Assume that the value of the regularisation constant satisfies (8). Assume furthermore that the significant eigenvalues (Aa > a) scale as Aa -- Na/'Y (It can be confirmed that this scaling is obtained for example in the interpolation models consisting of a sequence of steps of independent heights, as we vary the number of steps.) Then it can be shown that the scaling of the log evidence is: 1 -log P(Dla,,B, 1i) '" ,BE~P + 2 ('Y log(N/'Y) 1 =- + 'Y) (12) (Readers familiar with MDL will recognise the dominant log N term; MDL and Bayes are identical.) Thus the scaling behaviour of the lo~ evidence is identical to the structural risk minimisation expression (11), if Cl and C2 1. I. Guyon (personal communication) has confirmed that the empirically determined values for Cl and C2 are indeed close to these Bayesian values. It will be interesting to try and understand and develop this relationship. = Acknowledgements This work was supported by studentships from Caltech and SERC, UK. References J.S. Denker and Y. Le Cun (1991). 'Transforming neural-net output levels to probability distributions', in Advances in neural information processing systems 3, ed. R.P. Lippmann et al., 853-859, Morgan Kaufmann. S.F. Gull (1988). 'Bayesian inductive inference and maximum entropy', in Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods in science and engineering, vol. 1: Foundations, G.J. Erickson and C.R. Smith, eds., Kluwer. S.F. Gull (1989). 'Developments in Maximum entropy data analysis', in J. Skilling, ed., 53-11. I. Guyon, V.N. Vapnik, B.E. Boser, L.Y. Bottou and S.A. Solla (1992). 'Structural risk minimization for character recognition', this volume. H. Jeffreys (1939). Theory of Probability, Oxford Univ. Press. E. Levin, N. Tishby and S. Solla (1989). 'A statistical approach to learning and generalization in layered neural networks', in COLT '89: 2nd workshop on computational learning theory, 245-260. D.J.C. MacKay (1991) 'Bayesian Methods for Adaptive Models', Ph.D. Thesis, Caltech. Also 'Bayesian interpolation', 'A practical Bayesian framework for backprop networks', 'Information-based objective functions for active data selection', to appear in Neural computation. And 'The evidence framework applied to classification networks', submitted to Neural computation. J .E. Moody (1992). 'Generalization, regularization and architecture selection in nonlinear learning systems', this volume. N. Tishby, E. Levin and S.A. Solla (1989). 'Consistent inference of probabilities in layered networks: predictions and generalization', in Proc. [lCNN, Washington.
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A simple example of Dirichlet process mixture inconsistency for the number of components Jeffrey W. Miller Division of Applied Mathematics Brown University Providence, RI 02912 jeffrey [email protected] Matthew T. Harrison Division of Applied Mathematics Brown University Providence, RI 02912 matthew [email protected] Abstract For data assumed to come from a finite mixture with an unknown number of components, it has become common to use Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) not only for density estimation, but also for inferences about the number of components. The typical approach is to use the posterior distribution on the number of clusters ? that is, the posterior on the number of components represented in the observed data. However, it turns out that this posterior is not consistent ? it does not concentrate at the true number of components. In this note, we give an elementary proof of this inconsistency in what is perhaps the simplest possible setting: a DPM with normal components of unit variance, applied to data from a ?mixture? with one standard normal component. Further, we show that this example exhibits severe inconsistency: instead of going to 1, the posterior probability that there is one cluster converges (in probability) to 0. 1 Introduction It is well-known that Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) of normals are consistent for the density ? that is, given data from a sufficiently regular density p0 the posterior converges to the point mass at p0 (see [1] for details and references). However, it is easy to see that this does not necessarily imply consistency for the number of components, since for example, a good estimate of the density might include superfluous components having vanishingly small weight. Despite the fact that a DPM has infinitely many components with probability 1, it has become common to apply DPMs to data assumed to come from finitely many components or ?populations?, and to apply the posterior on the number of clusters (in other words, the number of components used in the process of generating the observed data) for inferences about the true number of components; see [2, 3, 4, 5, 6] for a few prominent examples. Of course, if the data-generating process very closely resembles the DPM model, then it is fine to use this posterior for inferences about the number of clusters (but beware of misspecification; see Section 2). However, in the examples cited, the authors evaluated the performance of their methods on data simulated from a fixed finite number of components or populations, suggesting that they found this to be more realistic than a DPM for their applications. Therefore, it is important to understand the behavior of this posterior when the data comes from a finite mixture ? in particular, does it concentrate at the true number of components? In this note, we give a simple example in which a DPM is applied to data from a finite mixture and the posterior distribution on the number of clusters does not concentrate at the true number of components. In fact, DPMs exhibit this type of inconsistency under very general conditions [7] ? however, the aim of this note is brevity and clarity. To that end, we focus our attention on a special case that is as 1 Figure 1: Prior (red x) and estimated posterior (blue o) of the number of clusters in the observed P2 data, for a univariate normal DPM on n i.i.d. samples from (a) N (0, 1), and (b) k=?2 15 N (4k, 12 ). The DPM had concentration parameter ? = 1 and a Normal?Gamma base measure on the mean and precision: N (? | 0, 1/c?)Gamma(? | a, b) with a = 1, b = 0.1, and c = 0.001. Estimates were made using a collapsed Gibbs sampler, with 104 burn-in sweeps and 105 sample sweeps; traceplots and running averages were used as convergence diagnostics. Each plot shown is an average over 5 independent runs. simple as possible: a ?standard normal DPM?, that is, a DPM using univariate normal components of unit variance, with a standard normal base measure (prior on component means). The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we address several pertinent questions and consider some suggestive experimental evidence. In Section 3, we formally define the DPM model under consideration. In Section 4, we give an elementary proof of inconsistency in the case of a standard normal DPM on data from one component, and in Section 5, we show that on standard normal data, a standard normal DPM is in fact severely inconsistent. 2 Discussion It should be emphasized that these results do not diminish, in any way, the utility of Dirichlet process mixtures as a flexible prior on densities, i.e., for Bayesian density estimation. In addition to their widespread success in empirical studies, DPMs are backed by theoretical guarantees showing that in many cases the posterior on the density concentrates at the true density at the minimax-optimal rate, up to a logarithmic factor (see [1] and references therein). Many researchers (e.g. [8, 9], among others) have empirically observed that the DPM posterior on the number of clusters tends to overestimate the number of components, in the sense that it tends to put its mass on a range of values greater or equal to the true number. Figure 1 illustrates this effect for univariate normals, and similar experiments with different families of component distributions yield similar results. Thus, while our theoretical results in Sections 4 and 5 (and in [7]) are asymptotic in nature, experimental evidence suggests that the issue is present even in small samples. It is natural to think that this overestimation is due to the fact that the prior on the number of clusters diverges as n ? ?, at a log n rate. However, this does not seem to be the main issue ? rather, the problem is that DPMs strongly prefer having some tiny clusters and will introduce extra clusters even when they are not needed (see [7] for an intuitive explanation of why this is the case). 2 In fact, many researchers have observed the presence of tiny extra clusters (e.g. [8, 9]), but the reason for this has not previously been well understood, often being incorrectly attributed to the difficulty of detecting components with small weight. These tiny extra clusters are rather inconvenient, especially in clustering applications, and are often dealt with in an ad hoc way by simply removing them. It might be possible to consistently estimate the number of components in this way, but this remains an open question. A more natural solution is the following: if the number of components is unknown, put a prior on the number of components. For example, draw the number of components s from a probability mass function p(s) on {1, 2, . . . } with p(s) > 0 for all s, draw mixing weights ? = (?1 , . . . , ?s ) (given s), draw component parameters ?1 , . . . , ?s i.i.d. (given s and ?) from an appropriate prior, and draw X1 , X2 , . . . i.i.d. (given s, ?, and ?1:s ) from the resulting mixture. This approach has been widely used [10, 11, 12, 13]. Under certain conditions, the posterior on the density has been shown to concentrate at the true density at the minimax-optimal rate, up to a logarithmic factor, for any sufficiently regular true density [14]. Strictly speaking, as defined, such a model is not identifiable, but it is fairly straightforward to modify it to be identifiable by choosing one representative from each equivalence class. Subject to a modification of this sort, it can be shown (see [10]) that under very general conditions, when the data is from a finite mixture of the chosen family, such models are (a.e.) consistent for the number of components, the mixing weights, the component parameters, and the density. Also see [15] for an interesting discussion about estimating the number of components. However, as a practical matter, when dealing with real-world data, one would not expect to find data coming exactly from a finite mixture of a known family (except, perhaps, in rare circumstances). Unfortunately, even for a model as in the preceding paragraph, the posterior on the number of components will typically be highly sensitive to misspecification, and it seems likely that in order to obtain robust estimators, the problem itself may need to be reformulated. We urge researchers interested in the number of components to be wary of this robustness issue, and to think carefully about whether they really need to estimate the number of components, or whether some other measure of heterogeneity will suffice. 3 Setup In this section, we define the Dirichlet process mixture model under consideration. 3.1 Dirichlet process mixture model The DPM model was introduced by Ferguson [16] and Lo [17] for the purpose of Bayesian density estimation, and was made practical through the efforts of several authors (see [18] and references therein). We will use p(?) to denote probabilities under the DPM model (as opposed to other probability distributions that will be considered in what follows). The core of the DPM is the so-called Chinese restaurant process (CRP), which defines a certain probability distribution on partitions. Given n ? {1, 2, . . . } and t ? {1, . . . , n}, let At (n) denote the set of all ordered partitions (A1 , . . . , At ) of {1, . . . , n} into t nonempty sets. In other words, t n o [ At (n) = (A1 , . . . , At ) : A1 , . . . , At are disjoint, Ai = {1, . . . , n}, |Ai | ? 1 ?i . i=1 The CRP with concentration parameter ? > 0 defines a probability mass function on A(n) = S n t=1 At (n) by setting p(A) = t Y ?t (|Ai | ? 1)! ?(n) t! i=1 for A ? At (n), where ?(n) = ?(? + 1) ? ? ? (? + n ? 1). Note that since t is a function of A, we have p(A) = p(A, t). (It is more common to see this distribution defined in terms of unordered partitions {A1 , . . . , At }, in which case the t! does not appear in the denominator ? however, for our purposes it is more convenient to use the distribution on ordered partitions (A1 , . . . , At ) obtained by uniformly permuting the parts. This does not affect the prior or posterior on t.) 3 Consider the hierarchical model p(A, t) = p(A) = p(?1:t | A, t) = ?t t Y (|Ai | ? 1)!, ?(n) t! i=1 t Y (3.1) ?(?i ), and i=1 p(x1:n | ?1:t , A, t) = t Y Y p?i (xj ), i=1 j?Ai where ?(?) is a prior on component parameters ? ? ?, and {p? : ? ? ?} is a parametrized family of distributions on x ? X for the components. Typically, X ? Rd and ? ? Rk for some d and k. Here, x1:n = (x1 , . . . , xn ) with xi ? X , and ?1:t = (?1 , . . . , ?t ) with ?i ? ?. This hierarchical model is referred to as a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) model. P The prior on the number of clusters t under this model is pn (t) = A?At (n) p(A, t). We use Tn (rather than T ) to denote the random variable representing the number of clusters, as a reminder that its distribution depends on n. Note that we distinguish between P the terms ?component? and ? ?cluster?: a component is part of a mixture distribution (e.g. a mixture i=1 ?i p?i has components p?1 , p?2 , . . . ), while a cluster is the set of indices of data points coming from a given component (e.g. in the DPM model above, A1 , . . . , At are the clusters). Since we are concerned with the posterior distribution p(Tn = t | x1:n ) on the number of clusters, we will be especially interested in the marginal distribution on (x1:n , t), given by X Z p(x1:n , Tn = t) = p(x1:n , ?1:t , A, t) d?1:t A?At (n) = = X p(A) t Z  Y Y A?At (n) i=1 X t Y p(A)  p?i (xj ) ?(?i ) d?i j?Ai m(xAi ) (3.2) i=1 A?At (n) where for any subset of indices S ? {1, . . . , n}, we denote xS = (xj : j ? S) and let m(xS ) denote the single-cluster marginal of xS , Z Y  m(xS ) = p? (xj ) ?(?) d?. (3.3) j?S 3.2 Specialization to the standard normal case In this note, for brevity and clarity, we focus on the univariate normal case with unit variance, with a standard normal prior on means ? that is, for x ? R and ? ? R, 1 p? (x) = N (x | ?, 1) = ? exp(? 12 (x ? ?)2 ), 2? 1 ?(?) = N (? | 0, 1) = ? exp(? 12 ?2 ). 2? and It is a straightforward calculation to show that the single-cluster marginal is then n m(x1:n ) = ?  1 1  X 2  1 p0 (x1:n ) exp xj , 2 n + 1 j=1 n+1 (3.4) where p0 (x1:n ) = p0 (x1 ) ? ? ? p0 (xn ) (and p0 is the N (0, 1) density). When p? (x) and ?(?) are as above, we refer to the resulting DPM as a standard normal DPM. 4 4 Simple example of inconsistency In this section, we prove the following result, exhibiting a simple example in which a DPM is inconsistent for the number of components: even when the true number of components is 1 (e.g. N (?, 1) data), the posterior probability of Tn = 1 does not converge to 1. Interestingly, the result applies even when X1 , X2 , . . . are identically equal to a constant c ? R. To keep it simple, we set ? = 1; for more general results, see [7]. Theorem 4.1. If X1 , X2 , . . . ? R are i.i.d. from any distribution with E|Xi | < ?, then with probability 1, under the standard normal DPM with ? = 1 as defined above, p(Tn = 1 | X1:n ) does not converge to 1 as n ? ?. Proof. Let n P ? {2, 3, . . . }. Let x1P , . . . , xn ? R, A ? A2 (n), and ai = |Ai | for i = 1, 2. n Define sn = x and s = j A i j=1 j?Ai xj for i = 1, 2. Using Equation 3.4 and noting that 1/(n + 1) ? 1/(n + 2) + 1/n2 , we have  1 s2   1 s2   1 s2  ? m(x1:n ) n n n ? exp exp . n+1 = exp p0 (x1:n ) 2n+1 2n+2 2 n2 Pn The second factor equals exp( 21 x2n ), where xn = n1 j=1 xj . By the convexity of x 7? x2 ,  s 2 a1 + 1  sA1 2 a2 + 1  sA2 2 n ? + , n+2 n + 2 a1 + 1 n + 2 a2 + 1 and thus, the first factor is less or equal to  1 s2 ? 1 s2A2  ? m(xA1 ) m(xA2 ) A1 exp + . = a1 + 1 a2 + 1 2 a1 + 1 2 a2 + 1 p0 (x1:n ) Hence, ? ? m(x1:n ) a1 + 1 a2 + 1 ? (4.1) ? exp( 21 x2n ). m(xA1 ) m(xA2 ) n+1 Consequently, we have p(x1:n , Tn = 2) (a) X m(xA1 ) m(xA2 ) = n p(A) p(x1:n , Tn = 1) m(x1:n ) A?A2 (n) ? X (b) n+1 p ? n p(A) p exp(? 12 x2n ) |A | + 1 |A | + 1 1 2 A?A2 (n) ? X (c) (n ? 2)! n + 1 ? ? exp(? 12 x2n ) ? n n! 2! 2 n A?A (n): 2 |A1 |=1 1 ? ? exp(? 12 x2n ), 2 2 where step (a) follows from applying Equation 3.2 to both numerator and denominator, plus using Equation 3.1 (with ? = 1) to see that p(A) = 1/n when A = ({1, . . . , n}), step (b) follows from Equation 4.1 above, step (c) follows since all the terms in the sum are nonnegative and p(A) = (n ? 2)!/n! 2! when |A1 | = 1 (by Equation 3.1, with ? = 1), and step (d) follows since there are n partitions A ? A2 (n) such that |A1 | = 1. (d) If P X1 , X2 , . . . ? R are i.i.d. with ? = EXj finite, then by the law of large numbers, X n = n 1 j=1 Xj ? ? almost surely as n ? ?. Therefore, n p(X1:n , Tn = 1) p(X1:n , Tn = 1) p(Tn = 1 | X1:n ) = P? ? p(X , T p(X , T = t) 1:n n = 1) + p(X1:n , Tn = 2) 1:n n t=1 1 1 a.s. ??? ? 1 1 2 < 1. 1 1 2 ? 1 + exp(? ? 1 + 2 2 exp(? 2 X n ) 2? ) 2 2 Hence, almost surely, p(Tn = 1 | X1:n ) does not converge to 1. 5 5 Severe inconsistency In the previous section, we showed that p(Tn = 1 | X1:n ) does not converge to 1 for a standard normal DPM on any data with finite mean. In this section, we prove that in fact, it converges to 0, at least on standard normal data. This vividly illustrates that improperly using DPMs in this way can lead to entirely misleading results. The key step in the proof is an application of Hoeffding?s strong law of large numbers for U-statistics. Theorem 5.1. If X1 , X2 , . . . ? N (0, 1) i.i.d. then Pr p(Tn = 1 | X1:n ) ? ?0 as n ? ? under the standard normal DPM with concentration parameter ? = 1. Proof. For t = 1 and t = 2 define Rt (X1:n ) = n3/2 p(X1:n , Tn = t) . p0 (X1:n ) Our method of proof is as follows. We will show that Pr R2 (X1:n ) ????? ? n?? (or in other words, for any B > 0 we have P(R2 (X1:n ) > B) ? 1 as n ? ?), and we will show that R1 (X1:n ) is bounded in probability: R1 (X1:n ) = OP (1) (or in other words, for any ? > 0 there exists B? > 0 such that P(R1 (X1:n ) > B? ) ? ? for all n ? {1, 2, . . . }). Putting these two together, we will have p(X1:n , Tn = 1) R1 (X1:n ) Pr p(X1:n , Tn = 1) p(Tn = 1 | X1:n ) = P? = ????? 0. ? p(X1:n , Tn = 2) R2 (X1:n ) n?? t=1 p(X1:n , Tn = t) First, let?s show that R2 (X1:n ) ? ? in probability. For S ? {1, . . . , n} with |S| ? 1, define h(xS ) by  1 1  X 2  1 m(xS ) h(xS ) = =p exp xj , p0 (xS ) 2 |S| + 1 |S| + 1 j?S where m? is the single-cluster marginal as in Equations 3.3 and 3.4. Note that when 1 ? |S| ? n ? 1, we have n h(xS ) ? 1. Note also that Eh(XS ) = 1 since Z Z Eh(XS ) = h(xS ) p0 (xS ) dxS = m(xS ) dxS = 1, using the fact that m(xS ) is a density with respect to Lebesgue measure. For k ? {1, . . . , n}, define the U-statistics 1 X Uk (X1:n ) = n h(XS ) k |S|=k where the sum is over all S ? {1, . . . , n} such that |S| = k. By Hoeffding?s strong law of large numbers for U-statistics [19], a.s. Uk (X1:n ) ????? Eh(X1:k ) = 1 n?? 6 for any k ? {1, 2, . . . }. Therefore, using Equations 3.1 and 3.2 we have that for any K ? {1, 2, . . . } and any n > K, X m(XA1 ) m(XA2 ) R2 (X1:n ) = n3/2 p(A) p0 (X1:n ) A?A2 (n) X ? =n p(A) n h(XA1 ) h(XA2 ) A?A2 (n) X ?n p(A) h(XA1 ) A?A2 (n) =n n?1 X X (k ? 1)! (n ? k ? 1)! h(XS ) n! 2! k=1 |S|=k = n?1 X k=1 = n?1 X k=1 ? K X k=1 a.s. ????? n?? n 1 X  h(XS ) 2k(n ? k) nk |S|=k n Uk (X1:n ) 2k(n ? k) n Uk (X1:n ) 2k(n ? k) K X 1 HK log K = > 2k 2 2 k=1 th where HK is the K harmonic number, and the last inequality follows from the standard bounds [20] on harmonic numbers: log K < HK ? log K + 1. Hence, for any K, lim inf R2 (X1:n ) > n?? log K 2 almost surely, and it follows easily that a.s. R2 (X1:n ) ????? ?. n?? Convergence in probability is implied by almost sure convergence. Now, let?s show that R1 (X1:n ) = OP (1). By Equations 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4, we have p(X1:n , Tn = 1) ? m(X1:n ) = n p0 (X1:n ) p0 (X1:n ) ? n   1 n 1 X 2  n ? exp Xi ? exp(Zn2 /2) =? 2n+1 n i=1 n+1 R1 (X1:n ) = n3/2 ? Pn where Zn = (1/ n) i=1 Xi ? N (0, 1) for each n ? {1, 2, . . . }. Since Zn = OP (1) then we conclude that R1 (X1:n ) = OP (1). This completes the proof. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Stu Geman for raising this question, and the anonymous referees for several helpful suggestions that improved the quality of this manuscript. This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant DMS-1007593 and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency under contract FA8650-11-1-715. References [1] S. Ghosal. The Dirichlet process, related priors and posterior asymptotics. In N.L. Hjort, C. Holmes, P. M?uller, and S.G. Walker, editors, Bayesian Nonparametrics, pages 36?83. Cambridge University Press, 2010. 7 [2] J.P. Huelsenbeck and P. Andolfatto. Inference of population structure under a Dirichlet process model. Genetics, 175(4):1787?1802, 2007. [3] M. Medvedovic and S. Sivaganesan. Bayesian infinite mixture model based clustering of gene expression profiles. Bioinformatics, 18(9):1194?1206, 2002. [4] E. Otranto and G.M. Gallo. A nonparametric Bayesian approach to detect the number of regimes in Markov switching models. Econometric Reviews, 21(4):477?496, 2002. [5] E.P. Xing, K.A. Sohn, M.I. Jordan, and Y.W. Teh. Bayesian multi-population haplotype inference via a hierarchical Dirichlet process mixture. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 1049?1056, 2006. [6] P. Fearnhead. Particle filters for mixture models with an unknown number of components. Statistics and Computing, 14(1):11?21, 2004. [7] J. W. Miller and M. T. Harrison. Inconsistency of Pitman?Yor process mixtures for the number of components. arXiv:1309.0024, 2013. [8] M. West, P. M?uller, and M.D. Escobar. Hierarchical priors and mixture models, with application in regression and density estimation. Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University, 1994. [9] A. Onogi, M. Nurimoto, and M. Morita. Characterization of a Bayesian genetic clustering algorithm based on a Dirichlet process prior and comparison among Bayesian clustering methods. BMC Bioinformatics, 12(1):263, 2011. [10] A. Nobile. Bayesian Analysis of Finite Mixture Distributions. PhD thesis, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1994. [11] S. Richardson and P.J. Green. On Bayesian analysis of mixtures with an unknown number of components. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 59(4):731?792, 1997. [12] P.J. Green and S. Richardson. Modeling heterogeneity with and without the Dirichlet process. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 28(2):355?375, June 2001. [13] A. Nobile and A.T. Fearnside. Bayesian finite mixtures with an unknown number of components: The allocation sampler. Statistics and Computing, 17(2):147?162, 2007. [14] W. Kruijer, J. Rousseau, and A. Van der Vaart. Adaptive Bayesian density estimation with location-scale mixtures. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 4:1225?1257, 2010. [15] P. McCullagh and J. Yang. How many clusters? Bayesian Analysis, 3(1):101?120, 2008. [16] T.S. Ferguson. Bayesian density estimation by mixtures of normal distributions. In M. H. Rizvi, J. Rustagi, and D. Siegmund, editors, Recent Advances in Statistics, pages 287?302. Academic Press, 1983. [17] A. Y. Lo. On a class of Bayesian nonparametric estimates: I. Density estimates. The Annals of Statistics, 12(1):351?357, 1984. [18] M.D. Escobar and M. West. Computing nonparametric hierarchical models. In D. Dey, P. M?uller, and D. Sinha, editors, Practical Nonparametric and Semiparametric Bayesian Statistics, pages 1?22. Springer-Verlag, New York, 1998. [19] W. Hoeffding. The strong law of large numbers for U-statistics. Institute of Statistics, Univ. of N. Carolina, Mimeograph Series, 302, 1961. [20] R.L. Graham, D.E. Knuth, and O. Patashnik. Concrete Mathematics. Addison-Wesley, 1989. 8
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Approximate Bayesian Image Interpretation using Generative Probabilistic Graphics Programs Vikash K. Mansinghka? 1,2 , Tejas D. Kulkarni? 1,2 , Yura N. Perov1,2,3 , and Joshua B. Tenenbaum1,2 1 Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, MIT 2 Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, MIT 3 Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Siberian Federal University Abstract The idea of computer vision as the Bayesian inverse problem to computer graphics has a long history and an appealing elegance, but it has proved difficult to directly implement. Instead, most vision tasks are approached via complex bottom-up processing pipelines. Here we show that it is possible to write short, simple probabilistic graphics programs that define flexible generative models and to automatically invert them to interpret real-world images. Generative probabilistic graphics programs (GPGP) consist of a stochastic scene generator, a renderer based on graphics software, a stochastic likelihood model linking the renderer?s output and the data, and latent variables that adjust the fidelity of the renderer and the tolerance of the likelihood. Representations and algorithms from computer graphics are used as the deterministic backbone for highly approximate and stochastic generative models. This formulation combines probabilistic programming, computer graphics, and approximate Bayesian computation, and depends only on generalpurpose, automatic inference techniques. We describe two applications: reading sequences of degraded and adversarially obscured characters, and inferring 3D road models from vehicle-mounted camera images. Each of the probabilistic graphics programs we present relies on under 20 lines of probabilistic code, and yields accurate, approximately Bayesian inferences about real-world images. 1 Introduction Computer vision has historically been formulated as the problem of producing symbolic descriptions of scenes from input images [10]. This is usually done by building bottom-up processing pipelines that isolate the portions of the image associated with each scene element and extract features that signal its identity. Many pattern recognition and learning techniques can then be used to build classifiers for individual scene elements, and sometimes to learn the features themselves [11, 7]. This approach has been remarkably successful, especially on problems of recognition. Bottom-up pipelines that combine image processing and machine learning can identify written characters with high accuracy and recognize objects from large sets of possibilities. However, the resulting systems typically require large training corpuses to achieve reasonable levels of accuracy, and are difficult both to build and modify. For example, the Tesseract system [16] for optical character recognition is over 10, 000 lines of C++. Small changes to the underlying assumptions frequently necessitates end-to-end retraining and/or redesign. Generative models for a range of image parsing tasks are also being explored [17, 4, 18, 22, 20]. These provide an appealing avenue for integrating top-down constraints with bottom-up processing, * The first two authors contributed equally to this work. * (vkm, tejask, perov, jbt)@mit.edu ? Project URL: http://probcomp.csail.mit.edu/gpgp/ 1 and provide an inspiration for the approach we take in this paper. But like traditional bottom-up pipelines for vision, these approaches have relied on considerable problem-specific engineering, chiefly to design and/or learn custom inference strategies, such as MCMC proposals [18, 22] that incorporate bottom-up cues. Other combinations of top-down knowledge with bottom up processing have been remarkably powerful [9]. For example, [8] has shown that global, 3D geometric information can significantly improve the performance of bottom-up object detectors. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation of image interpretation problems, called generative probabilstic graphics programming (GPGP). GPGP shares a common template: a stochastic scene generator, an approximate renderer based on existing graphics software, a highly stochastic likelihood model for comparing the renderer?s output with the observed data, and latent variables that control the fidelity of the renderer and the tolerance of the image likelihood. Our probabilistic graphics programs are written in Venture, a probabilistic programming language descended from Church [6]. Each model we introduce requires less than 20 lines of probabilistic code. The renderers and likelihoods for each are based on standard templates written as short Python programs. Unlike typical generative models for scene parsing, inverting our probabilistic graphics programs requires no custom inference algorithm design. Instead, we rely on the automatic Metropolis-Hastings (MH) transition operators provided by our probabilistic programming system. The approximations and stochasticity in our renderer, scene generator and likelihood models serve to implement a variant of approximate Bayesian computation [19, 12]. This combination can produce a kind of self-tuning analogue of annealing that facilities reliable convergence. To the best of our knowledge, our GPGP framework is the first real-world image interpretation formulation to combine all of the following elements: probabilistic programming, automatic inference, computer graphics, and approximate Bayesian computation; this constitutes our main contribution. Our second contribution is to provide demonstrations of the efficacy of this approach on two image interpretation problems: reading snippets of degraded and adversarially obscured alphanumeric characters, and inferring 3D road models from vehicle mounted cameras. In both cases we quantitatively report the accuracy of our approach on representative test datasets, as compared to standard bottom-up baselines that have been extensively engineered. 2 Generative Probabilistic Graphics Programs and Approximate Bayesian Inference. GPGP defines generative models for images by combining four components. The first is a stochastic scene generator written as probabilistic code that makes random choices for the location and configuration of the main elements in the scene. The second is an approximate renderer based on existing graphics software that maps a scene S and control variables X to an image IR = f (S, X). The third is a stochastic likelihood model for image data ID that enables scoring of rendered scenes given the control variables. The fourth is a set of latent variables X that control the fidelity of the renderer and/or the tolerance in the stochastic likelihood model. These components are described schematically in Figure 1. We formulate image interpretation tasks in terms of sampling (approximately) from the posterior distribution over images: P (S|ID ) / Z P (S)P (X) f (S,X) (IR )P (ID |IR , X)dX We perform inference over execution histories of our probabilistic graphics programs using a uniform mixture of generic, single-variable Metropolis-Hastings transitions, without any custom, bottom-up proposals. We first give a general description of the generative model and inference algorithm induced by our probabilistic graphics programs; in later sections, we describe specific details for each application. Let S = {Si } be a decomposition of the scene S into parts Si with independent priors P (Si ). For example, in our text application, the Si s include binary indicators for the presence or absence of each glyph, along with its identity (?A? through ?Z?, plus digits 0-9), and parameters including location, size and rotation. Also let X = {Xj } be a decomposition of the control variables X into parts Xj with priors P (Xj ), such as the bandwidths of per-glyph Gaussian spatial blur kernels, the variance 2 Stochastic Scene Generator X ~ P(X) S ~ P(S) Approximate Renderer IR = f(S,X) Data ID Stochastic Comparison P(ID|IR,X) Figure 1: An overview of the GPGP framework. Each of our models shares a common template: a stochastic scene generator which samples possible scenes S according to their prior, latent variables X that control the fidelity of the rendering and the tolerance of the model, an approximate render f (S, X) ! IR based on existing graphics software, and a stochastic likelihood model P (ID |IR , X) that links observed rendered images. A scene S ? sampled from the scene generator according to ? P (S) could be rendered onto a single image IR . This would be extremely unlikely to exactly match ? the data ID . Instead of requiring exact matches, our formulation can broaden the renderer?s output ? P (IR |S?) and the image likelihood P (ID |IR ) via the latent control variables X. Inference over X mediates the degree of smoothing in the posterior. of a Gaussian image likelihood, and so on. Our proposals modify single elements of the scene and control variables at a time, as follows: P (S) = Y P (Si ) qi (Si0 , Si ) = P (Si0 ) P (X) = i Y P (Xj ) qj (Xj0 , Xj ) = P (Xj0 ) j Now let K = |{Si }| + |{Xj }| be the total number of random variables in each execution. For simplicity, we describe the case where this number can be bounded above beforehand, i.e. total a priori scene complexity is limited. At each inference step, we choose a random variable index k < K uniformly at random. If k corresponds to a scene variable i, then we propose from qi (Si0 , Si ), so our overall proposal kernel q((S, X) ! (S 0 , X 0 )) = S i (S 0 )P (Si0 ) X (X 0 ). If k corresponds 0 to a control variable j, we propose from qj (Xj0 , Xj ). In both cases we re-render the scene IR = f (S 0 , X 0 ). We then run the kernel associated with this variable, and accept or reject via the MH equation: ?M H ((S, X) ! (S 0 , X 0 )) = min 1, P (ID |f (S 0 , X 0 ), X 0 )P (S 0 )P (X 0 )q((S 0 , X 0 ) ! (S, X)) P (ID |f (S, X), X)P (S)P (X)q((S, X) ! (S 0 , X 0 )) We implement our probabilistic graphics programs in the Venture probabilistic programming language. The Metropolis-Hastings inference algorithm we use is provided by default in this system; no custom inference code is required. In the context of our GPGP formulation, this algorithm makes implicit use of ideas from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC methods approximate Bayesian inference over complex generative processes by using an exogenous distance function to compare sampled outputs with observed data. In the original rejection sampling formulation, samples are accepted only if they match the data within a hard threshold. Subsequently, combinations of ABC and MCMC were proposed [12], including variants with inference over the threshold value [15]. Most recently, extensions have been introduced where the hard cutoff is replaced with a stochastic likelihood model [19]. Our formulation incorporates a combination of these insights: rendered scenes are only approximately constrained to match the observed image, with the tightness of the match mediated by inference over factors such as the fidelity of the rendering and the stochasticity in the likelihood. This allows image variability that is unnecessary or even undesirable to model to be treated in a principled fashion. 3 Figure 2: Four input images from our CAPTCHA corpus, along with the final results and convergence trajectory of typical inference runs. The first row is a highly cluttered synthetic CAPTCHA exhibiting extreme letter overlap. The second row is a CAPTCHA from TurboTax, the third row is a CAPTCHA from AOL, and the fourth row shows an example where our system makes errors on some runs. Our probabilistic graphics program did not originally support rotation, which was needed for the AOL CAPTCHAs; adding it required only 1 additional line of probabilistic code. See the main text for quantitative details, and supplemental material for the full corpus. 3 Generative Probabilistic Graphics in 2D for Reading Degraded Text. We developed a probabilistic graphics program for reading short snippets of degraded text consisting of arbitrary digits and letters. See Figure 2 for representative inputs and outputs. In this program, the latent scene S = {Si } contains a bank of variables for each glyph, including whether a potential letter is present or absent from the scene, what its spatial coordinates and size are, what its identity is, and how it is rotated: ? ? 1/w 0 ? x ? w 1/h 0 ? x ? h P (Sipres = 1) = 0.5 P (Six = x) = P (Siy = y) = 0 otherwise 0 otherwise P (Siglyph id = g) = ( 1/G 0 0 ? Siglyph id < G otherwise P (Si? = g) = ? 1/2?max 0 ?max ? Si? < ?max otherwise Our renderer rasterizes each letter independently, applies a spatial blur to each image, composites the letters, and then blurs the result. We also applied global blur to the original training image before applying the stochastic likelihood model on the blurred original and rendered images. The stochastic likelihood model is a multivariate Gaussian whose mean is the blurry rendering; formally, ID ? N (IR ; ). The control variables X = {Xj } for the renderer and likelihood consist of perletter Gaussian spatial blur bandwidths Xji ? ? Beta(1, 2), a global image blur on the rendered image Xblur rendered ? ? Beta(1, 2), a global image blur on the original test image Xblur test ? ? Beta(1, 2), and the standard deviation of the Gaussian likelihood ? Gamma(1, 1) (with , and set to favor small bandwidths). To make hard classification decisions, we use the sample with lowest pixel reconstruction error from a set of 5 approximate posterior samples. We also experimented with enabling enumerative (griddy) Gibbs sampling for uniform discrete variables with 10% probability. The probabilistic code for this model is shown in Figure 4. To assess the accuracy of our approach on adversarially obscured text, we developed a corpus consisting of over 40 images from widely used websites such as TurboTax, E-Trade, and AOL, plus additional challenging synthetic CAPTCHAs with high degrees of letter overlap and superimposed distractors. Each source of text violates the underlying assumptions of our probabilistic graphics program in different ways. TurboTax CAPTCHAs incorporate occlusions that break strokes within 4 (a) (c) (b) (d) (e) (f) Figure 3: Inference over renderer fidelity significantly improves the reliability of inference. (a) Reconstruction errors for 5 runs of two variants of our probabilistic graphics program for text. Without sufficient stochasticity and approximation in the generative model ? that is, with a strong prior over a purely deterministic, high-fidelity renderer ? inference gets stuck in local energy minima (red lines). With inference over renderer fidelity via per-letter and global blur, the tolerance of the image likelihood, and the number of letters, convergence improves substantially (blue lines). Many local minima in the likelihood are escaped over the course of single-variable inference, and the blur variables are automatically adjusted to support localizing and identifying letters. (b) Clockwise from top left: an input CAPTCHA, two typical local minima, and one correct parse. (c,d,e,f) A representative run, illustrating the convergence dynamics that result from inference over the renderer?s fidelity. From left to right, we show overall log probability, pixel-wise disagreement (many local minima are escaped over the course of inference), the number of active letters in the scene, and the per-letter blur variables. Inference automatically adjusts blur so that newly proposed letters are often blurred out until they are localized and identified accurately. letters, while AOL CAPTCHAs include per-letter warping. These CAPTCHAs all involve arbitrary digits and letters, and as a result lack cues from word identity that the best published CAPTCHA breaking systems depend on [13]. The dynamically-adjustable fidelity of our approximate renderer and the high stochasticity of our generative model appear to be necessary for inference to robustly escape local minima. We have observed a kind of self-tuning annealing resulting from inference over the control variables; see Figure 3 for an illustration. We observe robust character recognition given enough inference, with an overall character detection rate of 70.6%. To calibrate the difficulty of our corpus, we also ran the Tesseract optical character recognition engine [16] on our corpus; its character detection rate was 37.7%. 4 Generative Probabilistic Graphics in 3D: Road Finding. We have also developed a generative probabilistic graphics program for localizing roads in 3D from single images. This is an important problem in autonomous driving. As with many perception problems in robotics, there is clear scene structure to exploit, but also considerable uncertainty about the scene, as well as substantial image-to-image variability that needs to be robustly ignored. See Figure 5b for example inputs. The probabilistic graphics program we use for this problem is shown in Figure 7. The latent scene S is comprised of the height of the roadway from the ground plane, the road?s width and lane size, and the 3D offset of the corner of the road from the (arbitrary) camera location. The prior encodes assumption that the lanes are small relative to the road, and that the road has two lanes and is very likely to be visible (but may not be centered). This scene is then rendered to produce a surface-based segmentation image, that assigns each input pixel to one of 4 regions r 2 R = {left o?road, right o?road, road, lane}. Rendering is done for each scene element separately, followed by compositing, as with our 2D text program. See Figure 5a for random surfacebased segmentation images drawn from this prior. Extensions to richer road and ground geometries are an interesting direction for future work. This model is similar in spirit to [1] but the key differ5 ASSUME is_present (mem (lambda (id) (bernoulli 0.5))) ASSUME pos_x (mem (lambda (id) (uniform_discrete 0 200))) ASSUME pos_y (mem (lambda (id) (uniform_discrete 0 200))) ASSUME size_x (mem (lambda (id) (uniform_discrete 0 100))) ASSUME size_y (mem (lambda (id) (uniform_discrete 0 100))) ASSUME rotation (mem (lambda (id) (uniform_continuous -20.0 20.0))) ASSUME glyph (mem (lambda (id) (uniform_discrete 0 35))) // 26 + 10. ASSUME blur (mem (lambda (id) (* 7 (beta 1 2)))) ASSUME global_blur (* 7 (beta 1 2)) ASSUME data_blur (* 7 (beta 1 2)) ASSUME epsilon (gamma 1 1) ASSUME data (load_image "captcha_1.png" data_blur) ASSUME image (render_surfaces max-num-glyphs global_blur (pos_x 1) (pos_y 1) (glyph 1) (size_x 1) (size_y 1) (rotation 1) (blur 1) (is_present 1) (pos_x 2) (pos_y 2) (glyph 2) (size_x 2) (size_y 2) (rotation 2) (blur 2) (is_present 2) ... (is_present 10)) OBSERVE (incorporate_stochastic_likelihood data image epsilon) True Figure 4: A generative probabilistic graphics program for reading degraded text. The scene generator chooses letter identity (A-Z and digits 0-9), position, size and rotation at random. These random variables are fed into the renderer, along with the bandwidths of a series of spatial blur kernels (one per letter, another for the overall rendered image from generative model and another for the original input image). These blur kernels control the fidelity of the rendered image. The image returned by the renderer is compared to the data via a pixel-wise Gaussian likelihood model, whose variance is also an unknown variable. ence is that our framework relies on automatic inference techniques, is representationally richer due to compact model description and goes beyond point estimates to report posterior uncertainty. In our experiments, we used k-means (with k = 20) to cluster RGB values from a randomly chosen training image. We used these clusters to build a compact appearance model based on cluster-center histograms, by assigning text image pixels to their nearest cluster. However, we are agnostic to the particular choice of the appearence model and many feature engineering and feature learning techniques can be substituted here without the loss of generality. Our stochastic likelihood incorporates these histograms, by multiplying together the appearance probabilities for each image region r 2 R. These probabilities, denoted ?~r , are smoothed by pseudo-counts ? drawn from a Gamma distribution. Let Zr be the per-region normalizing constant, and ID(x,y) be the quantized pixel at coordinates (x, y) in the input image. Then our likelihood model is: P (ID |IR , ?) = Y Y r2R x,y s.t. IR =r ID(x,y) ?r +? Zr Figure 5f shows appearance model histograms from one random training frame. Figure 5c shows the extremely noisy lane/non-lane classifications that result from the appearance model on its own, without our scene prior; accuracy is extremely low. Other, richer appearance models, such as Gaussian mixtures over RGB values (which could be either hand specified or learned), are compatible with our formulation; our simple, quantized model was chosen primarily for simplicity. We use the same generic Metropolis-Hastings strategy for inference in this problem as in our text application. Although deterministic search strategies for MAP inference could be developed for this particular program, it is less clear how to build a single deterministic search algorithm that could work on both of the generative probabilistic graphics programs we present. In Table 1, we report the accuracy of our approach on one road dataset from the KITTI Vision Benchmark Suite [5]. To focus on accuracy in the face of visual variability, we do not exploit temporal correspondences. We test on every 5th frame for a total of 80. We report lane/non-lane accuracy results for maximum likelihood classification over 10 appearance models (from 10 randomly chosen training images), as well as for the single best appearance model from this set. We use 10 posterior samples per frame for both. For reference, we include the performance of a sophisticated bottom-up baseline system from [2]. This baseline system requires significant 3D a priori knowledge, including 6 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) Figure 5: An illustration of generative probabilistic graphics for 3D road finding. (a) Renderings of random samples from our scene prior, showing the surface-based image segmentation induced by each sample. (b) Representative test frames from the KITTI dataset [5]. (c) Maximum likelihood lane/non-lane classification of the images from (b) based solely on the best-performing singletraining-frame appearance model (ignoring latent geometry). Geometric constraints are clearly needed for reliable road finding. (d) Results from [2]. (e) Typical inference results from the proposed generative probabilistic graphics approach on the images from (b). (f) Appearance model histograms (over quantized RGB values) from the best-performing single-training-frame appearance model for all four region types: lane, left offroad, right offroad and road. (a) Lanes superimposed from 30 scenes sampled (b) 30 posterior samples on (c) 30 posterior samples on a (d) Posterior samples from our prior a low accuracy (Frame 199), high accuracy (Frame 384), of left lane position for both frames high uncertainty frame low uncertainty frame Figure 6: Approximate Bayesian inference yields samples from a broad, multimodal scene posterior on a frame that violates our modeling assumptions (note the intersection), but reports less uncertainty on a frame more compatible with our model (with perceptually reasonable alternatives to the mode). the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of the camera, and a rough initial segmentation of each test image. In contrast, our approach has to infer these aspects of the scene from the image data. We also show some uncertainty estimates that result from approximate Bayesian inference in Figure 6. Our probabilistic graphics program for this problem requires under 20 lines of probabilistic code. 5 Discussion We have shown that it is possible to write short probabilistic graphics programs that use simple 2D and 3D computer graphics techniques as the backbone for highly approximate generative models. Approximate Bayesian inference over the execution histories of these probabilistic graphics 7 ASSUME road_width (uniform_discrete 5 8) //arbitrary units ASSUME road_height (uniform_discrete 70 150) ASSUME lane_pos_x (uniform_continuous -1.0 1.0) //uncentered renderer ASSUME lane_pos_y (uniform_continuous -5.0 0.0) //coordinate system ASSUME lane_pos_z (uniform_continuous 1.0 3.5) ASSUME lane_size (uniform_continuous 0.10 0.35) ASSUME eps (gamma 1 1) ASSUME theta_left (list 0.13 ... 0.03) ASSUME theta_right (list 0.03 ... 0.02) ASSUME theta_road (list 0.05 ... 0.07) ASSUME theta_lane (list 0.01 ... 0.21) ASSUME data (load_image "frame201.png") ASSUME surfaces (render_surfaces lane_pos_x lane_pos_y lane_pos_z road_width road_height lane_size) OBSERVE (incorporate_stochastic_likelihood theta_left theta_right theta_road theta_lane data surfaces eps) True Figure 7: Source code for a generative probabilistic graphics program that infers 3D road models. Method Accuracy Aly et al [2] GPGP (Best Single Appearance) GPGP (Maximum Likelihood over Multiple Appearances) 68.31% 64.56% 74.60% Table 1: Quantitative results for lane detection accuracy on one of the road datasets in the KITTI Vision Benchmark Suite [5]. See main text for details. programs ? automatically implemented via generic, single-variable Metropolis-Hastings transitions, using existing rendering libraries and simple likelihoods ? then implements a new variation on analysis by synthesis [21]. We have also shown that this approach can yield accurate, globally consistent interpretations of real-world images, and can coherently report posterior uncertainty over latent scenes when appropriate. Our core contributions are the introduction of this conceptual framework and two initial demonstrations of its efficacy. To scale our inference approach to handle more complex scenes, it will likely be important to consider more complex forms of automatic inference, beyond the single-variable Metropolis-Hastings proposals we currently use. For example, discriminatively trained proposals could help, and in fact could be trained based on forward executions of the probabilistic graphics program. Appearance models derived from modern image features and texture descriptors [14, 7, 11] ? going beyond the simple quantizations we currently use ? could also reduce the burden on inference and improve the generalizability of individual programs. It is important to note that the high dimensionality involved in probabilistic graphics programming does not necessarily mean inference (and even automatic inference) is impossible. For example, approximate inference in models with probabilities bounded away from 0 and 1 can sometimes be provably tractable via sampling techniques, with runtimes that depend on factors other than dimensionality [3]. Exploring the role of stochasticity in facilitating tractability is an important avenue for future work. The most interesting potential of GPGP lies in bringing graphics representations and algorithms to bear on the hard modeling and inference problems in vision. For example, to avoid global rerendering after each inference step, we need to represent and exploit the conditional independencies between latent scene elements and image regions. Inference in GPGP based on a z-buffer or a layered compositor could potentially do this. We hope the GPGP framework facilitates image analysis by Bayesian inversion of rich graphics algorithms for scene generation and image synthesis. Acknowledgments We are grateful to K. Bonawitz and E. Jonas for preliminary work on CAPTCHA breaking, and to S. Teller, B. Freeman, T. Adelson, M. James, M. Siegel and anonymous reviewers for helpful feedback and discussions. T. Kulkarni was graciously supported by the Henry E Singleton (1940) Fellowship. This research was supported by ONR award N000141310333, ARO MURI W911NF-13-1-2012, the DARPA UPSIDE program and a gift from Google. 8 References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] ? Jos?e Manuel Alvarez, Theo Gevers, and Antonio M Lopez. ?3D scene priors for road detection?. In: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2010 IEEE Conference on. IEEE. 2010, pp. 57?64. Mohamed Aly. ?Real time detection of lane markers in urban streets?. In: Intelligent Vehicles Symposium, 2008 IEEE. IEEE. 2008, pp. 7?12. Paul Dagum and Michael Luby. ?An optimal approximation algorithm for Bayesian inference?. In: Artificial Intelligence 93.1 (1997), pp. 1?27. L Del Pero et al. ?Bayesian geometric modeling of indoor scenes?. In: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2012 IEEE Conference on. IEEE. 2012, pp. 2719?2726. Andreas Geiger, Philip Lenz, and Raquel Urtasun. ?Are we ready for autonomous driving? The KITTI vision benchmark suite?. In: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2012 IEEE Conference on. IEEE. 2012, pp. 3354?3361. Noah Goodman, Vikash Mansinghka, Daniel Roy, Keith Bonawitz, and Joshua Tenenbaum. ?Church: A language for generative models?. In: UAI. 2008. Geoffrey E Hinton, Simon Osindero, and Yee-Whye Teh. ?A fast learning algorithm for deep belief nets?. In: Neural computation 18.7 (2006), pp. 1527?1554. Derek Hoiem, Alexei A Efros, and Martial Hebert. ?Putting objects in perspective?. In: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2006 IEEE Computer Society Conference on. Vol. 2. IEEE. 2006, pp. 2137?2144. Derek Hoiem, Alexei A Efros, and Martial Hebert. ?Recovering surface layout from an image?. In: International Journal of Computer Vision 75.1 (2007), pp. 151?172. Berthold Klaus Paul Horn. Robot vision. the MIT Press, 1986. Yann LeCun and Yoshua Bengio. ?Convolutional networks for images, speech, and time series?. In: The handbook of brain theory and neural networks 3361 (1995). Paul Marjoram, John Molitor, Vincent Plagnol, and Simon Tavar?e. ?Markov chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods?. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100.26 (2003). Greg Mori and Jitendra Malik. ?Recognizing objects in adversarial clutter: Breaking a visual CAPTCHA?. In: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2003. Proceedings. 2003 IEEE Computer Society Conference on. Vol. 1. IEEE. 2003, pp. I?134. Javier Portilla and Eero P Simoncelli. ?A parametric texture model based on joint statistics of complex wavelet coefficients?. In: International Journal of Computer Vision 40.1 (2000). Oliver Ratmann, Christophe Andrieu, Carsten Wiuf, and Sylvia Richardson. ?Model criticism based on likelihood-free inference, with an application to protein network evolution?. In: 106.26 (2009), pp. 10576?10581. Ray Smith. ?An overview of the Tesseract OCR engine?. In: Ninth International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition. Vol. 2. IEEE. 2007, pp. 629?633. Zhuowen Tu, Xiangrong Chen, Alan L Yuille, and Song-Chun Zhu. ?Image parsing: Unifying segmentation, detection, and recognition?. In: International Journal of Computer Vision 63.2 (2005), pp. 113?140. Zhuowen Tu and Song-Chun Zhu. ?Image Segmentation by Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo?. In: IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 24.5 (May 2002). Richard D Wilkinson. ?Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) gives exact results under the assumption of model error?. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:0811.3355 (2008). David Wingate, Noah D Goodman, A Stuhlmueller, and J Siskind. ?Nonstandard interpretations of probabilistic programs for efficient inference?. In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23 (2011). Alan Yuille and Daniel Kersten. ?Vision as Bayesian inference: analysis by synthesis?? In: Trends in cognitive sciences 10.7 (2006), pp. 301?308. Yibiao Zhao and Song-Chun Zhu. ?Image Parsing via Stochastic Scene Grammar?. In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 2011. 9
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Dropout Training as Adaptive Regularization Stefan Wager? , Sida Wang? , and Percy Liang? Departments of Statistics? and Computer Science? Stanford University, Stanford, CA-94305 [email protected], {sidaw, pliang}@cs.stanford.edu Abstract Dropout and other feature noising schemes control overfitting by artificially corrupting the training data. For generalized linear models, dropout performs a form of adaptive regularization. Using this viewpoint, we show that the dropout regularizer is first-order equivalent to an L2 regularizer applied after scaling the features by an estimate of the inverse diagonal Fisher information matrix. We also establish a connection to AdaGrad, an online learning algorithm, and find that a close relative of AdaGrad operates by repeatedly solving linear dropout-regularized problems. By casting dropout as regularization, we develop a natural semi-supervised algorithm that uses unlabeled data to create a better adaptive regularizer. We apply this idea to document classification tasks, and show that it consistently boosts the performance of dropout training, improving on state-of-the-art results on the IMDB reviews dataset. 1 Introduction Dropout training was introduced by Hinton et al. [1] as a way to control overfitting by randomly omitting subsets of features at each iteration of a training procedure.1 Although dropout has proved to be a very successful technique, the reasons for its success are not yet well understood at a theoretical level. Dropout training falls into the broader category of learning methods that artificially corrupt training data to stabilize predictions [2, 4, 5, 6, 7]. There is a well-known connection between artificial feature corruption and regularization [8, 9, 10]. For example, Bishop [9] showed that the effect of training with features that have been corrupted with additive Gaussian noise is equivalent to a form of L2 -type regularization in the low noise limit. In this paper, we take a step towards understanding how dropout training works by analyzing it as a regularizer. We focus on generalized linear models (GLMs), a class of models for which feature dropout reduces to a form of adaptive model regularization. Using this framework, we show that dropout training is first-order equivalent to L2 -regularization af? 1/2 , where I? is an estimate of the Fisher information matrix. ter transforming the input by diag(I) This transformation effectively makes the level curves of the objective more spherical, and so balances out the regularization applied to different features. In the case of logistic regression, dropout can be interpreted as a form of adaptive L2 -regularization that favors rare but useful features. The problem of learning with rare but useful features is discussed in the context of online learning by Duchi et al. [11], who show that their AdaGrad adaptive descent procedure achieves better regret bounds than regular stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in this setting. Here, we show that AdaGrad S.W. is supported by a B.C. and E.J. Eaves Stanford Graduate Fellowship. Hinton et al. introduced dropout training in the context of neural networks specifically, and also advocated omitting random hidden layers during training. In this paper, we follow [2, 3] and study feature dropout as a generic training method that can be applied to any learning algorithm. 1 1 and dropout training have an intimate connection: Just as SGD progresses by repeatedly solving linearized L2 -regularized problems, a close relative of AdaGrad advances by solving linearized dropout-regularized problems. Our formulation of dropout training as adaptive regularization also leads to a simple semi-supervised learning scheme, where we use unlabeled data to learn a better dropout regularizer. The approach is fully discriminative and does not require fitting a generative model. We apply this idea to several document classification problems, and find that it consistently improves the performance of dropout training. On the benchmark IMDB reviews dataset introduced by [12], dropout logistic regression with a regularizer tuned on unlabeled data outperforms previous state-of-the-art. In follow-up research [13], we extend the results from this paper to more complicated structured prediction, such as multi-class logistic regression and linear chain conditional random fields. 2 Artificial Feature Noising as Regularization We begin by discussing the general connections between feature noising and regularization in generalized linear models (GLMs). We will apply the machinery developed here to dropout training in Section 4. A GLM defines a conditional distribution over a response y 2 Y given an input feature vector x 2 Rd : def p (y | x) = h(y) exp{y x ? A(x ? )}, def `x,y ( ) = log p (y | x). (1) Here, h(y) is a quantity independent of x and , A(?) is the log-partition function, and `x,y ( ) is the loss function (i.e., the negative log likelihood); Table 1 contains a summary of notation. Common examples of GLMs include linear (Y = R), logistic (Y = {0, 1}), and Poisson (Y = {0, 1, 2, . . . }) regression. Given n training examples (xi , yi ), the standard maximum likelihood estimate ? 2 Rd minimizes the empirical loss over the training examples: ? def = arg min 2Rd n X (2) `xi , yi ( ). i=1 With artificial feature noising, we replace the observed feature vectors xi with noisy versions x ?i = ?(xi , ?i ), where ? is our noising function and ?i is an independent random variable. We first create many noisy copies of the dataset, and then average out the auxiliary noise. In this paper, we will consider two types of noise: ? Additive Gaussian noise: ?(xi , ?i ) = xi + ?i , where ?i ? N (0, 2 Id?d ). ? Dropout noise: ?(xi , ?i ) = xi ?i , where is the elementwise product of two vectors. Each component of ?i 2 {0, (1 ) 1 }d is an independent draw from a scaled Bernoulli(1 ) random variable. In other words, dropout noise corresponds to setting x ?ij to 0 with probability and to xij /(1 ) else.2 Integrating over the feature noise gives us a noised maximum likelihood parameter estimate: ? = arg min 2Rd n X i=1 def E? [`x?i , yi ( )] , where E? [Z] = E [Z | {xi , yi }] (3) is the expectation taken with respect to the artificial feature noise ? = (?1 , . . . , ?n ). Similar expressions have been studied by [9, 10]. For GLMs, the noised empirical loss takes on a simpler form: n X E? [`x?i , yi ( )] = i=1 2 Artificial noise of the form xi to dropout noise as defined by [1]. n X i=1 (y xi ? E? [A(? xi ? )]) = n X `xi , yi ( ) + R( ). (4) i=1 ?i is also called blankout noise. For GLMs, blankout noise is equivalent 2 Table 1: Summary of notation. xi x ?i A(x ? ) Observed feature vector Noised feature vector Log-partition function R( ) Rq ( ) `( ) Noising penalty (5) Quadratic approximation (6) Negative log-likelihood (loss) The first equality holds provided that E? [? xi ] = xi , and the second is true with the following definition: n X def R( ) = E? [A(? xi ? )] A(xi ? ). (5) i=1 Here, R( ) acts as a regularizer that incorporates the effect of artificial feature noising. In GLMs, the log-partition function A must always be convex, and so R is always positive by Jensen?s inequality. The key observation here is that the effect of artificial feature noising reduces to a penalty R( ) that does not depend on the labels {yi }. Because of this, artificial feature noising penalizes the complexity of a classifier in a way that does not depend on the accuracy of a classifier. Thus, for GLMs, artificial feature noising is a regularization scheme on the model itself that can be compared with other forms of regularization such as ridge (L2 ) or lasso (L1 ) penalization. In Section 6, we exploit the label-independence of the noising penalty and use unlabeled data to tune our estimate of R( ). The fact that R does not depend on the labels has another useful consequence that relates to prediction. The natural prediction rule with artificially noised features is to select y? to minimize expected loss over the added noise: y? = argminy E? [`x?, y ( ?)]. It is common practice, however, not to noise the inputs and just to output classification decisions based on the original feature vector [1, 3, 14]: y? = argminy `x, y ( ?). It is easy to verify that these expressions are in general not equivalent, but they are equivalent when the effect of feature noising reduces to a label-independent penalty on the likelihood. Thus, the common practice of predicting with clean features is formally justified for GLMs. 2.1 A Quadratic Approximation to the Noising Penalty Although the noising penalty R yields an explicit regularizer that does not depend on the labels {yi }, the form of R can be difficult to interpret. To gain more insight, we will work with a quadratic approximation of the type used by [9, 10]. By taking a second-order Taylor expansion of A around x ? , we get that E? [A(? x ? )] A(x ? ) ? 12 A00 (x ? ) Var? [? x ? ] . Here the first-order term E? [A0 (x ? )(? x x)] vanishes because E? [? x] = x. Applying this quadratic approximation to (5) yields the following quadratic noising regularizer, which will play a pivotal role in the rest of the paper: n X def 1 Rq ( ) = A00 (xi ? ) Var? [? xi ? ] . (6) 2 i=1 This regularizer penalizes two types of variance over the training examples: (i) A00 (xi ? ), which corresponds to the variance of the response yi in the GLM, and (ii) Var? [? xi ? ], the variance of the estimated GLM parameter due to noising.3 Accuracy of approximation Figure 1a compares the noising penalties R and Rq for logistic redef gression in the case that x ? ? is Gaussian;4 we vary the mean parameter p = (1 + e x? ) 1 and the q noise level . We see that R is generally very accurate, although it tends to overestimate the true penalty for p ? 0.5 and tends to underestimate it for very confident predictions. We give a graphical explanation for this phenomenon in the Appendix (Figure A.1). The quadratic approximation also appears to hold up on real datasets. In Figure 1b, we compare the evolution during training of both R and Rq on the 20 newsgroups alt.atheism vs 3 Although Rq is not convex, we were still able (using an L-BFGS algorithm) to train logistic regression with Rq as a surrogate for the dropout regularizer without running into any major issues with local optima. 4 This assumption holds a priori for additive Gaussian noise, and can be reasonable for dropout by the central limit theorem. 3 0.30 500 Loss 100 0.20 50 0.15 0.00 10 0.05 20 0.10 Noising Penalty Dropout Penalty Quadratic Penalty Negative Log?Likelihood 200 0.25 p = 0.5 p = 0.73 p = 0.82 p = 0.88 p = 0.95 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 50 Sigma 100 150 Training Iteration (a) Comparison of noising penalties R and Rq for logistic regression with Gaussian perturbations, i.e., (? x x) ? ? N (0, 2 ). The solid line indicates the true penalty and the dashed one is our quadratic approximation thereof; p = (1 + e x? ) 1 is the mean parameter for the logistic model. (b) Comparing the evolution of the exact dropout penalty R and our quadratic approximation Rq for logistic regression on the AthR classification task in [15] with 22K features and n = 1000 examples. The horizontal axis is the number of quasi-Newton steps taken while training with exact dropout. Figure 1: Validating the quadratic approximation. soc.religion.christian classification task described in [15]. We see that the quadratic approximation is accurate most of the way through the learning procedure, only deteriorating slightly as the model converges to highly confident predictions. In practice, we have found that fitting logistic regression with the quadratic surrogate Rq gives similar results to actual dropout-regularized logistic regression. We use this technique for our experiments in Section 6. 3 Regularization based on Additive Noise Having established the general quadratic noising regularizer Rq , we now turn to studying the effects of Rq for various likelihoods (linear and logistic regression) and noising models (additive and dropout). In this section, we warm up with additive noise; in Section 4 we turn to our main target of interest, namely dropout noise. Linear regression Suppose x ? = x + " is generated by by adding noise with Var["] = 2 Id?d to the original feature vector x. Note that Var? [? x ? ] = 2 k k22 , and in the case of linear regression 1 2 00 A(z) = 2 z , so A (z) = 1. Applying these facts to (6) yields a simplified form for the quadratic noising penalty: 1 2 Rq ( ) = nk k22 . (7) 2 Thus, we recover the well-known result that linear regression with additive feature noising is equivalent to ridge regression [2, 9]. Note that, with linear regression, the quadratic approximation Rq is exact and so the correspondence with L2 -regularization is also exact. Logistic regression The situation gets more interesting when we move beyond linear regression. For logistic regression, A00 (xi ? ) = pi (1 pi ) where pi = (1 + exp( xi ? )) 1 is the predicted probability of yi = 1. The quadratic noising penalty is then 1 R ( )= 2 q 2 k k22 n X pi (1 pi ). (8) i=1 In other words, the noising penalty now simultaneously encourages parsimonious modeling as before (by encouraging k k22 to be small) as well as confident predictions (by encouraging the pi ?s to move away from 12 ). 4 Table 2: Form of the different regularization schemes. These expressions assume that the design P matrix has been normalized, i.e., that i x2ij = 1 for all j. The pi = (1 + e xi ? ) 1 are mean parameters for the logistic model. L2 -penalization Additive Noising Dropout Training 4 Linear Regression k k22 k k22 k k22 Logistic Regression 2 Pk k2 2 k k p P 2 i i (1 2pi ) 2 pi ) xij j i, j pi (1 GLM k k22 k k22 tr(V ( )) > diag(X > V ( )X) Regularization based on Dropout Noise Recall that dropout training corresponds to applying dropout noise to training examples, where the noised features x ?i are obtained by setting x ?ij to 0 with some ?dropout probability? and to xij /(1 ) with probability (1 ), independently for each coordinate j of the feature vector. We can check that: d X 1 Var? [? xi ? ] = x2ij j2 , (9) 21 j=1 and so the quadratic dropout penalty is Rq ( ) = 1 21 n X i=1 A00 (xi ? ) d X x2ij 2 j. (10) j=1 Letting X 2 Rn?d be the design matrix with rows xi and V ( ) 2 Rn?n be a diagonal matrix with entries A00 (xi ? ), we can re-write this penalty as 1 > Rq ( ) = diag(X > V ( )X) . (11) 21 Let ? be the maximum estimate given infinite data. When computed at ? , the matrix Pn likelihood 1 1 > ? 2 ? X V ( )X = r ` ) is an estimate of the Fisher information matrix I. Thus, x i , yi ( i=1 n n dropout can be seen as an attempt to apply an L2 penalty after normalizing the feature vector by diag(I) 1/2 . The Fisher information is linked to the shape of the level surfaces of `( ) around ? . If I were a multiple of the identity matrix, then these level surfaces would be perfectly spherical around ? . Dropout, by normalizing the problem by diag(I) 1/2 , ensures that while the level surfaces of `( ) may not be spherical, the L2 -penalty is applied in a basis where the features have been balanced out. We give a graphical illustration of this phenomenon in Figure A.2. Linear Regression For linear regression, V is the identity matrix, so the dropout objective is equivalent to a form of ridge regression where each column of the design matrix is normalized before applying the L2 penalty.5 This connection has been noted previously by [3]. Logistic Regression The form of dropout penalties becomes much more intriguing once we move beyond the realm of linear regression. The case of logistic regression is particularly interesting. Here, we can write the quadratic dropout penalty from (10) as n X d X 1 Rq ( ) = pi (1 pi ) x2ij j2 . (12) 21 i=1 j=1 Thus, just like additive noising, dropout generally gives an advantage to confident predictions and small . However, unlike all the other methods considered so far, dropout may allow for some large pi (1 pi ) and some large j2 , provided that the corresponding cross-term x2ij is small. Our analysis shows that dropout regularization should be better than L2 -regularization for learning weights for features that are rare (i.e., often 0) but highly discriminative, because dropout effectively does not penalize j over observations for which xij = 0. Thus, in order for a feature to earn a large 2 pi ) each time that it j , it suffices for it to contribute to a confident prediction with small pi (1 is active.6 Dropout training has been empirically found to perform well on tasks such as document 5 Normalizing the columns of the design matrix before performing penalized regression is standard practice, and is implemented by default in software like glmnet for R [16]. 6 To be precise, dropout does not reward all rare but discriminative features. Rather, dropout rewards those features that are rare and positively co-adapted with other features in a way that enables the model to make confident predictions whenever the feature of interest is active. 5 Table 3: Accuracy of L2 and dropout regularized logistic regression on a simulated example. The first row indicates results over test examples where some of the rare useful features are active (i.e., where there is some signal that can be exploited), while the second row indicates accuracy over the full test set. These results are averaged over 100 simulation runs, with 75 training examples in each. All tuning parameters were set to optimal values. The sampling error on all reported values is within ?0.01. Accuracy Active Instances All Instances L2 -regularization 0.66 0.53 Dropout training 0.73 0.55 classification where rare but discriminative features are prevalent [3]. Our result suggests that this is no mere coincidence. We summarize the relationship between L2 -penalization, additive noising and dropout in Table 2. Additive noising introduces a product-form penalty depending on both and A00 . However, the full potential of artificial feature noising only emerges with dropout, which allows the penalty terms due to and A00 to interact in a non-trivial way through the design matrix X (except for linear regression, in which all the noising schemes we consider collapse to ridge regression). 4.1 A Simulation Example The above discussion suggests that dropout logistic regression should perform well with rare but useful features. To test this intuition empirically, we designed a simulation study where all the signal is grouped in 50 rare features, each of which is active only 4% of the time. We then added 1000 nuisance features that are always active to the design matrix, for a total of d = 1050 features. To make sure that our experiment was picking up the effect of dropout training specifically and not just normalization of X, we ensured that the columns of X were normalized in expectation. The dropout penalty for logistic regression can be written as a matrix product 0 10 1 ??? ??? 1 Rq ( ) = (? ? ? pi (1 pi ) ? ? ?) @? ? ? x2ij ? ? ?A @ j2 A . 21 ??? ??? (13) We designed the simulation study in such a way that, at the optimal , the dropout penalty should have structure Small (confident prediction) Big (weak prediction) ! 0 B @ ??? 0 1 0 B CB AB B @ ??? ??? Big (useful feature) Small (nuisance feature) 1 C C C. C A (14) A dropout penalty with such a structure should be small. Although there are some uncertain predictions with large pi (1 pi ) and some big weights j2 , these terms cannot interact because the corresponding terms x2ij are all 0 (these are examples without any of the rare discriminative features and thus have no signal). Meanwhile, L2 penalization has no natural way of penalizing some j more and others less. Our simulation results, given in Table 3, confirm that dropout training outperforms L2 -regularization here as expected. See Appendix A.1 for details. 5 Dropout Regularization in Online Learning There is a well-known connection between L2 -regularization and stochastic gradient descent (SGD). In SGD, the weight vector ? is updated with ?t+1 = ?t ?t gt , where gt = r`xt , yt ( ?t ) is the gradient of the loss due to the t-th training example. We can also write this update as a linear L2 -penalized problem ? ?t+1 = argmin `x , y ( ?t ) + gt ? ( ?t ) + 1 k ?t k2 , (15) 2 t t 2?t where the first two terms form a linear approximation to the loss and the third term is an L2 regularizer. Thus, SGD progresses by repeatedly solving linearized L2 -regularized problems. 6 0.9 0.88 0.88 0.86 0.86 accuracy accuracy 0.9 0.84 dropout+unlabeled dropout L2 0.82 0.8 0 10000 20000 30000 size of unlabeled data 0.84 dropout+unlabeled dropout L2 0.82 0.8 40000 5000 10000 size of labeled data 15000 Figure 2: Test set accuracy on the IMDB dataset [12] with unigram features. Left: 10000 labeled training examples, and up to 40000 unlabeled examples. Right: 3000-15000 labeled training examples, and 25000 unlabeled examples. The unlabeled data is discounted by a factor ? = 0.4. As discussed by Duchi et al. [11], a problem with classic SGD is that it can be slow at learning weights corresponding to rare but highly discriminative features. This problem can be alleviated by running a modified form of SGD with ?t+1 = ?t ? At 1 gt , where the transformation At is also learned online; this leads to the family of stochastic descent rules. Duchi et al. use PtAdaGrad > At = diag(Gt )1/2 where Gt = g g and show that this choice achieves desirable regret i=1 i i bounds in the presence of rare but useful features. At least superficially, AdaGrad and dropout seem to have similar goals: For logistic regression, they can both be understood as adaptive alternatives to methods based on L2 -regularization that favor learning rare, useful features. As it turns out, they have a deeper connection. The natural way to incorporate dropout regularization into SGD is to replace the penalty term k ?k2 /2? in (15) with the dropout regularizer, giving us an update rule 2 n o ?t+1 = argmin `x , y ( ?t ) + gt ? ( ?t ) + Rq ( ?t ; ?t ) (16) t t where, Rq (?; ?t ) is the quadratic noising regularizer centered at ?t :7 Rq ( ?t ; ?t ) = 1 ( 2 ?t )> diag(Ht ) ( ?t ), where Ht = t X i=1 r2 `xi , yi ( ?t ). (17) This implies that dropout descent is first-order equivalent to an adaptive SGD procedure with At = diag(Ht ). To see the connection between AdaGrad and this dropout-based online procedure, recall that for GLMs both of the expressions ? ? ? ? E ? r2 `x, y ( ? ) = E ? r`x, y ( ? )r`x, y ( ? )> (18) are equal to the Fisher information I [17]. In other words, as ?t converges to ? , Gt and Ht are both consistent estimates of the Fisher information. Thus, by using dropout instead of L2 -regularization to solve linearized problems in online learning, we end up with an AdaGrad-like algorithm. Of course, the connection between AdaGrad and dropout is not perfect. In particular, AdaGrad allows for a more aggressive learning rate by using At = diag(Gt ) 1/2 instead of diag(Gt ) 1 . But, at a high level, AdaGrad and dropout appear to both be aiming for the same goal: scaling the features by the Fisher information to make the level-curves of the objective more circular. In contrast, L2 -regularization makes no attempt to sphere the level curves, and AROW [18]?another popular adaptive method for online learning?only attempts to normalize the effective feature matrix but does not consider the sensitivity of the loss to changes in the model weights. In the case of logistic regression, AROW also favors learning rare features, but unlike dropout and AdaGrad does not privilege confident predictions. 7 This expression is equivalent to (11) except that we used ?t and not 7 ?t to compute Ht . Table 4: Performance of semi-supervised dropout training for document classification. (a) Test accuracy with and without unlabeled data on different datasets. Each dataset is split into 3 parts of equal sizes: train, unlabeled, and test. Log. Reg.: logistic regression with L2 regularization; Dropout: dropout trained with quadratic surrogate; +Unlabeled: using unlabeled data. (b) Test accuracy on the IMDB dataset [12]. Labeled: using just labeled data from each paper/method, +Unlabeled: use additional unlabeled data. Drop: dropout with Rq , MNB: multionomial naive Bayes with semisupervised frequency estimate from [19],8 -Uni: unigram features, -Bi: bigram features. Datasets Log. Reg. Dropout +Unlabeled Subj 88.96 90.85 91.48 RT 73.49 75.18 76.56 IMDB-2k 80.63 81.23 80.33 XGraph 83.10 84.64 85.41 BbCrypt 97.28 98.49 99.24 IMDB 87.14 88.70 89.21 Methods Labeled +Unlabeled MNB-Uni [19] 83.62 84.13 MNB-Bi [19] 86.63 86.98 Vect.Sent[12] 88.33 88.89 NBSVM[15]-Bi 91.22 ? Drop-Uni 87.78 89.52 Drop-Bi 91.31 91.98 6 Semi-Supervised Dropout Training Recall that the regularizer R( ) in (5) is independent of the labels {yi }. As a result, we can use additional unlabeled training examples to estimate it more accurately. Suppose we have an unlabeled dataset {zi } of size m, and let ? 2 (0, 1] be a discount factor for the unlabeled data. Then we can define a semi-supervised penalty estimate ? n ? def R? ( ) = R( ) + ? RUnlabeled ( ) , (19) n + ?m P where R( ) is the original penalty estimate and RUnlabeled ( ) = i E? [A(zi ? )] A(zi ? ) is computed using (5) over the unlabeled examples zi . We select the discount parameter by crossvalidation; empirically, ? 2 [0.1, 0.4] works well. For convenience, we optimize the quadratic surrogate R?q instead of R? . Another practical option would be to use the Gaussian approximation from [3] for estimating R? ( ). Most approaches to semi-supervised learning either rely on using a generative model [19, 20, 21, 22, 23] or various assumptions on the relationship between the predictor and the marginal distribution over inputs. Our semi-supervised approach is based on a different intuition: we?d like to set weights to make confident predictions on unlabeled data as well as the labeled data, an intuition shared by entropy regularization [24] and transductive SVMs [25]. Experiments We apply this semi-supervised technique to text classification. Results on several datasets described in [15] are shown in Table 4a; Figure 2 illustrates how the use of unlabeled data improves the performance of our classifier on a single dataset. Overall, we see that using unlabeled data to learn a better regularizer R? ( ) consistently improves the performance of dropout training. Table 4b shows our results on the IMDB dataset of [12]. The dataset contains 50,000 unlabeled examples in addition to the labeled train and test sets of size 25,000 each. Whereas the train and test examples are either positive or negative, the unlabeled examples contain neutral reviews as well. We train a dropout-regularized logistic regression classifier on unigram/bigram features, and use the unlabeled data to tune our regularizer. Our method benefits from unlabeled data even in the presence of a large amount of labeled data, and achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on this dataset. 7 Conclusion We analyzed dropout training as a form of adaptive regularization. This framework enabled us to uncover close connections between dropout training, adaptively balanced L2 -regularization, and AdaGrad; and led to a simple yet effective method for semi-supervised training. There seem to be multiple opportunities for digging deeper into the connection between dropout training and adaptive regularization. In particular, it would be interesting to see whether the dropout regularizer takes on a tractable and/or interpretable form in neural networks, and whether similar semi-supervised schemes could be used to improve on the results presented in [1]. 8 Our implementation of semi-supervised MNB. MNB with EM [20] failed to give an improvement. 8 References [1] Geoffrey E Hinton, Nitish Srivastava, Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever, and Ruslan R Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. arXiv preprint arXiv:1207.0580, 2012. [2] Laurens van der Maaten, Minmin Chen, Stephen Tyree, and Kilian Q Weinberger. Learning with marginalized corrupted features. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [3] Sida I Wang and Christopher D Manning. Fast dropout training. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [4] Yaser S Abu-Mostafa. Learning from hints in neural networks. Journal of Complexity, 6(2):192?198, 1990. [5] Chris J.C. Burges and Bernhard Schlkopf. Improving the accuracy and speed of support vector machines. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 375?381, 1997. [6] Patrice Y Simard, Yann A Le Cun, John S Denker, and Bernard Victorri. Transformation invariance in pattern recognition: Tangent distance and propagation. International Journal of Imaging Systems and Technology, 11(3):181?197, 2000. [7] Salah Rifai, Yann Dauphin, Pascal Vincent, Yoshua Bengio, and Xavier Muller. The manifold tangent classifier. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 24:2294?2302, 2011. [8] Kiyotoshi Matsuoka. Noise injection into inputs in back-propagation learning. Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on, 22(3):436?440, 1992. [9] Chris M Bishop. Training with noise is equivalent to Tikhonov regularization. Neural computation, 7(1):108?116, 1995. [10] Salah Rifai, Xavier Glorot, Yoshua Bengio, and Pascal Vincent. Adding noise to the input of a model trained with a regularized objective. arXiv preprint arXiv:1104.3250, 2011. [11] John Duchi, Elad Hazan, and Yoram Singer. Adaptive subgradient methods for online learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:2121?2159, 2010. [12] Andrew L Maas, Raymond E Daly, Peter T Pham, Dan Huang, Andrew Y Ng, and Christopher Potts. Learning word vectors for sentiment analysis. In Proceedings of the 49th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 142?150. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2011. [13] Sida I Wang, Mengqiu Wang, Stefan Wager, Percy Liang, and Christopher D Manning. Feature noising for log-linear structured prediction. In Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, 2013. [14] Ian J Goodfellow, David Warde-Farley, Mehdi Mirza, Aaron Courville, and Yoshua Bengio. Maxout networks. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [15] Sida Wang and Christopher D Manning. Baselines and bigrams: Simple, good sentiment and topic classification. In Proceedings of the 50th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 90?94. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2012. [16] Jerome Friedman, Trevor Hastie, and Rob Tibshirani. Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent. Journal of Statistical Software, 33(1):1, 2010. [17] Erich Leo Lehmann and George Casella. Theory of Point Estimation. Springer, 1998. [18] Koby Crammer, Alex Kulesza, Mark Dredze, et al. Adaptive regularization of weight vectors. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 22:414?422, 2009. [19] Jiang Su, Jelber Sayyad Shirab, and Stan Matwin. Large scale text classification using semi-supervised multinomial naive Bayes. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2011. [20] Kamal Nigam, Andrew Kachites McCallum, Sebastian Thrun, and Tom Mitchell. Text classification from labeled and unlabeled documents using EM. Machine Learning, 39(2-3):103?134, May 2000. [21] G. Bouchard and B. Triggs. The trade-off between generative and discriminative classifiers. In International Conference on Computational Statistics, pages 721?728, 2004. [22] R. Raina, Y. Shen, A. Ng, and A. McCallum. Classification with hybrid generative/discriminative models. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Cambridge, MA, 2004. MIT Press. [23] J. Suzuki, A. Fujino, and H. Isozaki. Semi-supervised structured output learning based on a hybrid generative and discriminative approach. In Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and Computational Natural Language Learning, 2007. [24] Y. Grandvalet and Y. Bengio. Entropy regularization. In Semi-Supervised Learning, United Kingdom, 2005. Springer. [25] Thorsten Joachims. Transductive inference for text classification using support vector machines. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 200?209, 1999. 9
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Stochastic Gradient Riemannian Langevin Dynamics on the Probability Simplex Yee Whye Teh Department of Statistics University of Oxford [email protected] Sam Patterson Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London [email protected] Abstract In this paper we investigate the use of Langevin Monte Carlo methods on the probability simplex and propose a new method, Stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin dynamics, which is simple to implement and can be applied to large scale data. We apply this method to latent Dirichlet allocation in an online minibatch setting, and demonstrate that it achieves substantial performance improvements over the state of the art online variational Bayesian methods. 1 Introduction In recent years there has been increasing interest in probabilistic models where the latent variables or parameters of interest are discrete probability distributions over K items, i.e. vectors lying in the probability simplex X ?K = {(?1 , . . . , ?K ) : ?k ? 0, ?k = 1} ? RK (1) k Important examples include topic models like latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) [BNJ03], admixture models in genetics like Structure [PSD00], and discrete directed graphical models with a Bayesian prior over the conditional probability tables [Hec99]. Standard approaches to inference over the probability simplex include variational inference [Bea03, WJ08] and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) like Gibbs sampling [GRS96]. In the context of LDA, many methods have been developed, e.g. variational inference [BNJ03], collapsed variational inference [TNW07, AWST09] and collapsed Gibbs sampling [GS04]. With the increasingly large scale document corpora to which LDA and other topic models are applied, there has also been developments of specialised and highly scalable algorithms [NASW09]. Most proposed algorithms are based on a batch learning framework, where the whole document corpus needs to be stored and accessed for every iteration. For very large corpora, this framework can be impractical. Most recently, [Sat01, HBB10, MHB12] proposed online Bayesian variational inference algorithms (OVB), where on each iteration only a small subset (a mini-batch) of the documents is processed to give a noisy estimate of the gradient, and a stochastic gradient descent algorithm [RM51] is employed to update the parameters of interest. These algorithms have shown impressive results on very large corpora like Wikipedia articles, where it is not even feasible to store the whole dataset in memory. This is achieved by simply fetching the mini-batch articles in an online manner, processing, and then discarding them after the mini-batch. In this paper, we are interested in developing scalable MCMC algorithms for models defined over the probability simplex. In some scenarios, and particularly in LDA, MCMC algorithms have been shown to work extremely well, and in fact achieve better results faster than variational inference on small to medium corpora [GS04, TNW07, AWST09]. However current MCMC methodology 1 have mostly been in the batch framework which, as argued above, cannot scale to the very large corpora of interest. We will make use of a recently developed MCMC method called stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) [WT11, ABW12] which operates in a similar online minibatch framework as OVB. Unlike OVB and other stochastic gradient descent algorithms, SGLD is not a gradient descent algorithm. Rather, it is a Hamiltonian MCMC [Nea10] algorithm which will asymptotically produce samples from the posterior distribution. It achieves this by updating parameters according to both the stochastic gradients as well as additional noise which forces it to explore the full posterior instead of simply converging to a MAP configuration. There are three difficulties that have to be addressed, however, to successfully apply SGLD to LDA and other models defined on probability simplices. Firstly, the probability simplex (1) is compact and has boundaries that has to be accounted for when an update proposes a step that brings the vector outside the simplex. Secondly, the typical Dirichlet priors over the probability simplex place most of its mass close to the boundaries and corners of the simplex. This is particularly the case for LDA and other linguistic models, where probability vectors parameterise distributions over a larger number of words, and it is often desirable to use distributions that place significant mass on only a few words, i.e. we want distributions over ?K which place most of its mass near the boundaries and corners. This also causes a problem as depending on the parameterisation used, the gradient required for Langevin dynamics is inversely proportional to entries in ? and hence can blow up when components of ? are close to zero. Finally, again for LDA and other linguistic models, we would like algorithms that work well in high-dimensional simplices. These considerations lead us to the first contribution of this paper in Section 3, which is an investigation into different ways to parameterise the probability simplex. This section shows that the choice of a good parameterisation is not obvious, and that the use of the Riemannian geometry of the simplex [Ama95, GC11] is important in designing Langevin MCMC algorithms. In particular, we show that an unnormalized parameterisation, using a mirroring trick to remove boundaries, coupled with a natural gradient update, achieves the best mixing performance. In Section 4, we then show that the SGLD algorithm, using this parameterisation and natural gradient updates, performs significantly better than OVB algorithms [HBB10, MHB12]. Section 2 reviews Langevin dynamics, natural gradients and SGLD to setup the framework used in the paper, and Section 6 concludes. 2 2.1 Review Langevin dynamics QN Suppose we model a data set x = x1 , . . . , xN , with a generative model p(x | ?) = i=1 p(xi | ?) parameterized by ? ? RD with prior p(?) and that our aim is to compute the posterior p(? | x). Langevin dynamics [Ken90, Nea10] is an MCMC scheme which produces samples from the posterior by means of gradient updates plus Gaussian noise, resulting in a proposal distribution q(?? | ?) as described by Equation 2. ! N X  ?? = ? + ?? log p(?) + ?? log p(xi |?) + ?, ? ? N (0, I) (2) 2 i=1 The mean of the proposal distribution is in the direction of increasing log posterior due to the gradient, while the added noise will prevent the samples from collapsing to a single (local) maximum. A Metropolis-Hastings correction is required  step  to correct for discretisation error, with proposals p(? ? |x) q(?|? ? ) accepted with probability min 1, p(?|x) q(?? |?) [RS02]. As  tends to zero, the acceptance ratio tends to one as the Markov chain tends to a stochastic differential equation which has p(? | x) as its stationary distribution [Ken78]. 2.2 Riemannian Langevin dynamics Langevin dynamics has an isotropic proposal distribution leading to slow mixing if the components of ? have very different scales or if they are highly correlated. Preconditioning can help with this. A recent approach, the Riemann manifold Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm [GC11] uses a user chosen matrix G(?) to precondition in a locally adaptive manner. We will refer to their algorithm 2 as Riemannian Langevin dynamics (RLD) in this paper. The Riemannian manifold in question is the family of probability distributions p(x | ?) parameterised by ?, for which the expected Fisher information matrix I? defines a natural Riemannian metric tensor. In fact any positive definite matrix G(?) defines a valid Riemannian manifold and hence we are not restricted to using G(?) = I? . This is important in practice as for many models of interest the expected Fisher information is intractable. As in Langevin dynamics, RLD consists of a Gaussian proposal q(?? | ?), along with a MetropolisHastings correction step. The proposal distribution can be written as 1  ?? = ? + ?(?) + G? 2 (?)?, ? ? N (0, I) (3) 2 where the j th component of ?(?) is given by ?(?)j = ?1 G (?) ?? log p(?) + N X !! ?? log p(xi |?) i=1 + D X k=1 j  D  X ?G(?) ?1 ?1 G (?) ?2 G (?) ??k jk k=1    ?G(?) G?1 (?) jk Tr G?1 (?) ??k (4) The first term in Equation 4 is now the natural gradient of the log posterior. Whereas the standard gradient gives the direction of steepest ascent in Euclidean space, the natural gradient gives the direction of steepest descent taking into account the geometry implied by G(?). The remaining terms in Equation 4 describe how the curvature of the manifold defined by G(?) changes for small changes in ?. The Gaussian noise in Equation 3 also takes the geometry of the manifold into account, 1 having scale defined by G? 2 (?). 2.3 Stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin dynamics In the Langevin dynamics and RLD algorithms, the proposal distribution requires calculation of the gradient of the log likelihood w.r.t. ?, which means processing all N items in the data set. For large data sets this is infeasible, and even for small data sets it may not be the most efficient use of computation. The stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) algorithm [WT11] replaces the calculation of the gradient over the full data set, with a stochastic approximation based on a subset of data. Specifically at iteration t we sample n data items indexed by Dt , uniformly from the full data set and replace the exact gradient in Equation 2 with the approximation N X ?? logp(x | ?) ? ?? log p(xi |?) (5) |Dt | i?Dt Also, SGLD does not use a Metropolis-Hastings correction step, as calculating the acceptance probability would require use of the full data set, hence defeating the purpose of the stochastic gradient approximation. Convergence to the posterior is still guaranteed as long as decaying step sizes satisP? P? fying t=1 t = ?, t=1 2t < ? are used. In this paper we combine the use of a preconditioning matrix G(?) as in RLD with this stochastic gradient approximation, by replacing the exact gradient in Equation 4 with the approximation from Equation 5. The resulting algorithm, stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin dynamics (SGRLD), avoids the slow mixing problems of Langevin dynamics, while still being applicable in a large scale online setting due to its use of stochastic gradients and lack of Metropolis-Hastings correction steps. 3 Riemannian Langevin dynamics on the probability simplex In this section, we investigate the issues which arise when applying Langevin Monte Carlo methods, specifically the Langevin dynamics and Riemannian Langevin dynamics algorithms, to models whose parameters lie on the probability simplex. In these experiments, a Metropolis-Hastings correction step was used. Consider the simplest possible model: a K dimensional probability vector QK ? with Dirichlet prior p(?) ? k ?k?k ?1 , and data x = x1 , . . . , xN with p(xi = k | ?) = ?k . QK PN This results in a Dirchlet posterior p(? | x) ? k ?knk +?k ?1 , where nk = i=1 ?(xi = k). In 3 Parameterisation ? Reduced-Mean ? k = ?k ?? log p(?|x) G(?) G?1 (?)  ?G ?1 G?1 ?? G k jk    ?G G?1 (?) jk Tr G?1 (?) ?? k PD  k=1 PD k=1  k ? 1 nK?+??1 K n+? ? n? diag(?) 1 n? Reduced-Natural k ?k = log 1?P?K?1 ? ?1 + 1? 1 P k ?k 11 diag(?) ? ??T  T k 1 ?j2 K?j ? 1 1 ?j2 n+??1 ? k=1 n? k=1 diag (?) ? K?1 P (1? k ?k )2 ?1 e??j ? K?1 P (1? k ?k )2 ?1 e??j  n? diag(?)?1 + K?j ? 1 Expanded-Natural ?k ?k = P e e?k n + ? ? n? ? ? e ?  diag e?  diag e?? n + ? ? (n? + K?) ?  1 T n? diag(?) ? ??  Expanded-Mean ?k = P |?k ||?k | 1? 1 P 11 k ?k ? ?? ? ?1 diag (?) T  1 Table 1: Parameterisation Details our experiments we use a sparse, symmetric prior with ?k = 0.1 ?k, and sparse count data, setting K = 10 and n1 = 90, n2 = n3 = 5 and the remaining nk to zero. This is to replicate the sparse nature of the posterior in many models of interest. The qualitative conclusions we draw are not sensitive to the precise choice of hyperparameters and data here. There are various possible ways to parameterise the probability simplex, and the performance of Langevin Monte Carlo depends strongly on the choice of parameterisation. We consider both the mean and natural parameter spaces, and in each of these we try both a reduced (K ? 1 dimensional) and expanded (K dimensional) parameterisation, with details as follows. Reduced-Mean: in the mean parameter space, the most obvious approach is to set ? = ? directly, but there are two problems with this. Though ? has K components, it must lie on the simplex, a K ? 1 dimensional space. Running Langevin dynamics or RLD on the full K dimensional parameterisation will result in proposals that are off the simplex with probability one. We can incorporate PK the constraint that k=1 ?k = 1 by using the first K ? 1 components as the parameter ?, and setPK?1 ting ?K = 1 ? k=1 ?k . Note however that the proposals can still violate the boundary constraint 0 < ?k < 1, and this is particularly problematic when the posterior has mass close to the boundaries. Expanded-Mean: we can simplify boundary considerations using a redundant parameterisation. We take as our parameter ? ? RK + with prior a product of independent Gamma(?k , 1) distributions, QK p(?) ? k=1 ?k?k ?1 e??k . ? is then given by ?k = P?k?k and so the prior on ? is still Dirichlet(?). k The boundary conditions 0 < ?k can be handled by simply taking the absolute value of the proposed ? ? . This is equivalent to letting ? take values in the whole of RK , with prior given by Gammas QK mirrored at 0, p(?) ? k=1 |?k |?k ?1 e?|?k | , and ?k = P|?k|?| k | , which again results in a Dirichlet(?) k prior on ?. This approach allows us to bypass boundary issues altogether. Reduced-Natural: in the natural parameter space, the reduced parameterisation takes the form ?k ?k = 1+PeK?1 e?k for k = 1, . . . , K ? 1. The prior on ? can be obtained from the Dirichlet(?) prior k=1 on ? using a change of variables. There are no boundary constraints as the range of ?k is R. ?k Expanded-Natural: finally the expanded-natural parameterisation takes the form ?k = PKe e?k k=1 for k = 1, . . . , K. As in the expanded-mean parameterisation, we use a product of Gamma priors, in this case for e?k , so that the prior for ? remains Dirichlet(?). For all parameterisations, we run both Langevin dynamics and RLD. When applying RLD, we must choose a metric G(?). For the reduced parameterisations, we can use the expected Fisher information matrix, but the redundancy in the full parameterisations means that this matrix has rank K?1 and hence is not invertible. For these parameterisations we use the expected Fisher information matrix for a Gamma/Poisson model, which is equivalent to the Dirichlet/Multinomial apart from the fact that the total number of data items is considered to be random as well. The details for each parameterisation are summarised in Table 1. In all cases we are interested in sampling from the posterior distribution on ?, while ? is the specific parameterisation being used. For the mean parameterisations, the ??1 term in the gradient of the log-posterior means that for components of ? which are close to zero, the proposal distribution for Langevin dynamics (Equation 2) has a large mean, resulting in unstable proposals with a small acceptance probability. Due to the form of G(?)?1 , the same argument holds for the RLD proposal distribution for the natural parameterisations. This leaves us with three possible combinations, RLD on the expandedmean parameterisation and Langevin dynamics on each of the natural parameterisations. 4 0 1000 10 Expanded?Mean RLD median Expanded?Mean RLD mean Reduced?Natural LD median Reduced?Natural LD mean Expanded?Natural LD median Expanded?Natural LD mean 900 800 700 ?2 10 ?4 10 ?6 10 ?8 10 0 10 ESS 600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Thinned sample number 800 900 1000 ?7 10 ?14 10 500 ?21 10 400 ?28 10 0 300 10 200 10 0 ?4 ?8 10 100 ?12 10 0 10^?5 ?16 10^?4 10^?3 10^?2 Step size 10^?1 10 10^0 0 (a) Effective sample size (b) Samples Figure 1: Effective sample size and samples. Burn-in iterations is 10,000; thinning factor 100. To investigate their relative performances we run a small experiment, producing 110,000 samples from each of the three remaining parameterisations, discarding 10,000 burn-in samples and thinning the remaining samples by a factor of 100. For the resulting 1000 thinned samples of ?, we calculate the corresponding samples of ?, and compute the effective sample size for each component of ?. This was done for a range of step sizes , and the mean and median effective sample sizes for the components of ? is shown in Figure 1(a). Figure 1(b) shows the samples from each sampler at their optimal step size of 0.1. The samples from Langevin dynamics on both natural parameterisations display higher auto-correlation than the RLD samples produced using the expanded-mean parameterisation, as would be expected from their lower effective sample sizes. In addition to the increased effective sample size, the expanded-mean parameterisation RLD sampler has the advantage that it is computationally efficient as G(?) is a diagonal matrix. Hence it is this algorithm that we use when applying these techniques to latent Dirichlet allocation in Section 4. 4 Applying Riemannian Langevin dynamics to latent Dirichlet allocation Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) [BNJ03] is a hierarchical Bayesian model, most frequently used to model topics arising in collections of text documents. The model consists of K topics ?k , which are distributions over the words in the collection, drawn from a symmetric Dirichlet prior with hyper-parameter ?. A document d is then modelled by a mixture of topics, with mixing proportion ?d , drawn from a symmetric Dirichlet prior with hyper-parameter ?. The model corresponds to a generative process where documents are produced by drawing a topic assignment zdi i.i.d. from ?d for each word wdi in document d, and then drawing the word wdi from the corresponding topic ?zdi . We integrate out ? analytically, resulting in the semi-collapsed distribution: K K W Y ? (K?) ? (? + ndk? ) Y ?(W ?) Y ?+n?kw ?1 ? (6) ? (K? + nd?? ) ? (?) ?(?)W w=1 kw d=1 k=1 k=1 PNd where as in [TNW07], ndkw = i=1 ?(wdi = w, zdi = k) and ? denotes summation over the corresponding index. Conditional on ?, the documents are i.i.d., and we can factorise Equation 6 p(w, z, ? | ?, ?) = D Y p(w, z, ? | ?, ?) = p(? | ?) D Y p(wd , zd | ?, ?) (7) K W Y ? (? + ndk? ) Y ndkw ?kw ? (?) w=1 (8) d=1 where p(wd , zd , | ?, ?) = k=1 5 4.1 Stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin dynamics for LDA As we would like to apply these techniques to large document collections, we use the stochastic gradient version of the Riemannian Langevin dynamics algorithm, as detailed in Section 2.3. Following the investigation in Section 3 we use the expanded-mean parameterisation. For each of the K topics ?k , we introduce a W -dimensional unnormalised parameter ?k with an indepenQW ?w ?1 ??kw dent Gamma prior p(?k ) ? e and set ?kw = P?kw , for w = 1, . . . , W . w=1 ?kw w ?kw We use the mirroring idea as well. The metric G(?) is then the diagonal matrix G(?) = ?1 diag (?11 , . . . , ?1W , . . . , ?K1 , . . . , ?KW ) . The algorithm runs on mini-batches of documents: at time t it receives a mini-batch of documents indexed by Dt , drawn at random from the full corpus D. The stochastic gradient of the log posterior of ? on Dt is shown in Equation 9.   ?log p(? | w, ?, ?) ndkw ??1 |D| X ndk? Ezd |wd ,?,? ? ?1+ ? (9) ??kw ?kw |Dt | ?kw ?k? d?Dt For this choice of ? and G(?), we use Equations 3, 4 to give the SGRLD update for ?, ! 1  |D| X ? 2 ?kw = ?kw + ? ? ?kw + Ezd |wd ,?,? [ndkw ? ?kw ndk? ] + (?kw ) ?kw 2 |Dt | (10) d?Dt where ?kw ? N (0, ). Note that the ??1 term in Equation 9 has been replaced with ? in Equation 10 as the ?1 cancels with the curvature terms as detailed in Table 1. As discussed in Section 3, we reflect moves across the boundary 0 < ?kw by taking the absolute value of the proposed update. Comparing Equation 9 to the gradient for the simple model from Section 3, the observed counts nk for the simple model have been replaced with the expectation of the latent topic assignment counts ndkw . To calculate this expectation we use Gibbs sampling on the topic assignments in each document separately, using the conditional distributions   \i ? + ndk? ?kwdi  p(zdi = k | wd , ?, ?) = P  (11) \i ? + n ? kw di k dk? where \i represents a count excluding the topic assignment variable we are updating. 5 Experiments We investigate the performance of SGRLD, with no Metropolis-Hastings correction step, on two real-world data sets. We compare it to two online variational Bayesian algorithms developed for latent Dirichlet allocation: online variational Bayes (OVB) [HBB10] and hybrid stochastic variational-Gibbs (HSVG) [MHB12]. The difference between these two methods is the form of variational assumption made. Q Q Q OVB assumes a mean-field variational posterior, q(?1:D , z1:D , ?1:K ) = q(? ) q(z ) d di d d,i k q(?k ), in particular this means topic assignment variables within the same document are assumed to be independent, when in reality they will be strongly coupled. In contrast HSVG Q Q collapses ?d analytically and uses a variational posterior of the form q(z1:D , ?1:K ) = d q(zd ) k q(?k ), which allows dependence within the components of zd . This more complicated posterior requires Gibbs sampling in the variational update step for zd , and we combined the code for OVB [HBB10], with the Gibbs sampling routine from our SGRLD code to implement HSVG. 5.1 Evaluation Method The predictive performance of the algorithms can be measured by looking at the probability they assign to unseen data. A metric frequently used for this purpose is perplexity, the exponentiated cross entropy between the trained model probability distribution and the empirical distribution of the test data. For a held-out document wd and a training set W, the perplexity is given by   Pnd?? i=1 log p(wdi | W, ?, ?) . (12) perp(wd | W, ?, ?) = exp ? nd?? 6 This requires calculating p(wdi | W, ?, ?), which is done by marginalising out the parameters ?d , ?1 , . . . , ?K and topic assignments zd , to give " # X p(wdi | W, ?, ?) = E?d ,? ?dk ?kwdi (13) k We use a document completion approach [WMSM09], partitioning the test document wd into two sets of words, wdtrain , wdtest and using wdtrain to estimate ?d for the test document, then calculating the perplexity on wdtest using this estimate. To calculate the perplexity for SGRLD, we integrate ? analytically, so Equation 13 is replaced by " " ## X train ??dk ?kwdi p(wdi | wd , W, ?, ?) = E?|W,? Ezdtrain |?,? (14) k where test ??dk := p(zdi = k | zdtrain , ?) = ntrain dk? + ? . train nd?? + K? (15) We estimate these expectations using the samples we obtain for ? from the Markov chain produced by SGRLD, and samples for zdtrain produced by Gibbs sampling the topic assignments on wdtrain . For OVB and HSVG, we estimate Equation 13 by replacing the true posterior p(?, ?) with q(?, ?). " # X X p(wdi | W, ?, ?) = Ep(?d ,?|W,?,?) ?dk ?kwdi ? Eq(?d ) [?dk ] Eq(?k ) [?kwdi ] (16) k k We estimate the perplexity directly rather than use a variational bound [HBB10] so that we can compare results of the variational algorithms to those of SGRLD. 5.2 Results on NIPS corpus The first experiment was carried out on the collection of NIPS papers from 1988-2003 [GCPT07]. This corpus contains 2483 documents, which is small enough to run all three algorithms in batch mode and compare their performance to that of collapsed Gibbs sampling on the full collection. Each document was split 80/20 into training and test sets, the training portion of all 2483 documents were used in each update step, and the perplexity was calculated on the test portion of all documents. Hyper-parameters ? and ? were both fixed to 0.01, and 50 topics were used. A step-size schedule of the form t = (a ? (1 + bt ))?c was used. Perplexities were estimated for a range of step size parameters, and for 1, 5 and 10 document updates per topic parameter update. For OVB the document updates are fixed point iterations of q(zd ) while for HSVG and SGRLD they are Gibbs updates of zd , the first half of which were discarded as burn-in. These numbers of document updates were chosen as previous investigation of the performance of HSVG for varying numbers of Gibbs updates has shown that 6-10 updates are sufficient [MHB12] to achieve good performance. Figure 2(a) shows the lowest perplexities achieved along with the corresponding parameter settings. As expected, CGS achieves the lowest perplexities. It is surprising that HSVG performs slightly worse than OVB on this data set. As it uses a less restricted variational distribution it should perform at least as well. SGRLD improves on the performance of OVB and HSVG, but does not match the performance of Gibbs sampling. 5.3 Results on Wikipedia corpus The algorithms? performances in an online scenario was assessed on a set of articles downloaded at random from Wikipedia, as in [HBB10]. The vocabulary used is again as per [HBB10]; it is not created from the Wikipedia data set, instead it is taken from the top 10,000 words in Project Gutenburg texts, excluding all words of less than three characters. This results in vocabulary size W of approximately 8000 words. 150,000 documents from Wikipedia were used in total, in minibatches of 50 documents each. The perplexities were estimated using the methods discussed in 7 2200 HSVG OVB SGRLD Collapsed Gibbs 2200 2000 HSVG OVB SGRLD 2000 1800 1600 1800 1400 1600 1400 0 1200 200 400 600 (a) NIPS corpus 800 1000 0 1000 50000 100000 150000 (b) Wikipedia corpus Figure 2: Test-set perplexities on NIPS and Wikipedia corpora. Section 5.1 on a separate holdout set of 1000 documents, split 90/10 training/test. As the corpus size is large, collapsed Gibbs sampling was not run on this data set. For each algorithm a grid-search was run on the hyper-parameters, step-size parameters, and number of Gibbs sampling sweeps / variational fixed point iterations per ? update. The lowest three perplexities attained for each algorithm are shown in Figure 2(b). Corresponding parameters are given in the supplementary material. HSVG achieves better performance than OVB, as expected. The performance of SGRLD is a substantial improvement on both the variational algorithms. 6 Discussion We have explored the issues involved in applying Langevin Monte Carlo techniques to a constrained parameter space such as the probability simplex, and developed a novel online sampling algorithm which addresses those issues. Using an expanded parametrisation with a reflection trick for negative proposals removed the need to deal with boundary constraints, and using the Riemannian geometry of the parameter space dealt with the problem of parameters with differing scales. Applying the method to Latent Dirichlet Allocation on two data sets produced state of the art predictive performance for the same computational budget as competing methods, demonstrating that full Bayesian inference using MCMC can be practically applied to models of interest, even when the data set is large. Python code for our method is available at http://www.stats.ox.ac. uk/?teh/sgrld.html. Due to the widespread use of models defined on the probability simplex, we believe the methods developed here for Langevin dynamics on the probability simplex will find further uses beyond latent Dirichlet allocation and stochastic gradient Monte Carlo methods. A drawback of SGLD algorithms is the need for decreasing step sizes; it would be interesting to investigate adaptive step sizes and the approximation entailed when using fixed step sizes (but see [AKW12] for a recent development). Acknowledgements We thank the Gatsby Charitable Foundation and EPSRC (grant EP/K009362/1) for generous funding, reviewers and area chair for feedback and support, and [HBB10] for use of their excellent publicly available source code. 8 References [ABW12] Sungjin Ahn, Anoop Korattikara Balan, and Max Welling, Bayesian posterior sampling via stochastic gradient fisher scoring., ICML, 2012. [AKW12] S. Ahn, A. Korattikara, and M. Welling, Bayesian posterior sampling via stochastic gradient Fisher scoring, Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [Ama95] S. Amari, Information geometry of the EM and em algorithms for neural networks, Neural Networks 8 (1995), no. 9, 1379?1408. [AWST09] A. Asuncion, M. Welling, P. Smyth, and Y. W. 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Restricting exchangeable nonparametric distributions Sinead A. Williamson University of Texas at Austin Steven N. MacEachern The Ohio State University Eric P. Xing Carnegie Mellon University Abstract Distributions over matrices with exchangeable rows and infinitely many columns are useful in constructing nonparametric latent variable models. However, the distribution implied by such models over the number of features exhibited by each data point may be poorly-suited for many modeling tasks. In this paper, we propose a class of exchangeable nonparametric priors obtained by restricting the domain of existing models. Such models allow us to specify the distribution over the number of features per data point, and can achieve better performance on data sets where the number of features is not well-modeled by the original distribution. 1 Introduction The Indian buffet process [IBP, 11] is one of several distributions over matrices with exchangeable rows and infinitely many columns, only a finite (but random) number of which contain any non-zero entries. Such distributions have proved useful for constructing flexible latent feature models that do not require us to specify the number of latent features a priori. In such models, each column of the random matrix corresponds to a latent feature, and each row to a data point. The non-zero elements of a row select the subset of features that contribute to the corresponding data point. However, distributions such as the IBP make certain assumptions about the structure of the data that may be inappropriate. Specifically, such priors impose distributions on the number of data points that exhibit a given feature, and on the number of features exhibited by a given data point. For example, in the IBP, the number of features exhibited by a data point is marginally Poisson-distributed, and the probability of a data point exhibiting a previously-observed feature is proportional to the number of times that feature has been seen so far. These distributional assumptions may not be appropriate for many modeling tasks. For example, the IBP has been used to model both text [17] and network [13] data. It is well known that word frequencies in text corpora and degree distributions of networks often exhibit power-law behavior; it seems reasonable to suppose that this behavior would be better captured by models that assume a heavy-tailed distribution over the number of latent features, rather than the Poisson distribution assumed by the IBP and related random matrices. In certain cases we may instead wish to add constraints on the number of latent features exhibited per data point, particularly in cases where we expect, or desire, the latent features to correspond to interpretable features, or causes, of the data [20]. For example, we might believe that each data point exhibits exactly S features ? corresponding perhaps to speakers in a dialog, members of a team, or alleles in a genotype ? but be agnostic about the total number of features in our data set. A model that explicitly encodes this prior expectation about the number of features per data point will tend to lead to more interpretable and parsimonious results. Alternatively, we may wish to specify a minimum number of latent features. For example, the IBP has been used to select possible next states in a hidden Markov model [10]. In such a model, we do not expect to see a state that allows no transitions (including self-transitions). Nonetheless, because a data point in the IBP can have zero features with non-zero probability, this situation can occur, resulting in an invalid transition distribution. 1 In this paper, we propose a method for modifying the distribution over the number of non-zero elements per row in arbitrary exchangeable matrices, allowing us to control the number of features per data point in a corresponding latent feature model. We show that our construction yields exchangeable distributions, and present Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference. Our experimental evaluation shows that this approach allows us to incorporate prior beliefs about the number of features per data point into our model, yielding superior modeling performance. 2 Exchangeability We say a finite sequence (X1 , . . . , XN ) is exchangeable [see, for example, 1] if its distribution is unchanged under any permutation ? of {1, . . . , N }. Further, we say that an infinite sequence X1 , X2 , . . . is infinitely exchangeable if all of its finite subsequences are exchangeable. Such distributions are appropriate when we do not believe the order in which we see our data is important. In such cases, a model whose posterior distribution depends on the order in which we see our data is not justified. In addition, exchangeable models often yield efficient Gibbs samplers. De Finetti?s law tells us that a sequence is exchangeable iff the observations are i.i.d. given some latent distribution. This means that we can write the probability of any exchangeable sequence as Z Y P (X1 = x1 , X2 = x2 , . . . ) = ?? (Xi = xi )?(d?) (1) ? i for some probability distribution ? over parameter space ?, and some parametrized family {?? }??? of conditional probability distributions. Throughout this paper, we will use the notation p(x1 , x2 , . . . ) = P (X1 = x1 , X2 = x2 , . . . ) to represent the joint distribution over an exchangeable sequence x1 , x2 , . .Q . ; p(xn+1 |x1 , . . . , xn ) to n represent the associated predictive distribution; and p(x1 , . . . , xn , ?) := i=1 ?? (Xi = xi )?(?) to represent the joint distribution over the observations and the parameter ?. 2.1 Distributions over exchangeable matrices The Indian buffet process [IBP, 11] is a distribution over binary matrices with exchangeable rows and infinitely many columns. In the de Finetti representation, the mixing distribution ? is a beta process, the parameter ? is a countably infinite measure with atom sizes ?k ? (0, 1], and the conditional distribution ?? is a Bernoulli process [17]. The beta process and the Bernoulli process are both completely random measures [CRM, 12] ? distributions over random measures on somePspace ? that ? assign independent masses to disjoint subsets of ?, that can be written in the form ? = k=1 ?k ??k . We can think of each atom of ? as determining the latent probability for a column of a matrix with infinitely many columns, and the Bernoulli process as sampling binary values for the entries of that column of the matrix. The resulting matrix has a finite number of non-zero entries, with the number of non-zero entries in each row distributed as Poisson(?) and the total number of non-zero columns in N rows distributed as Poisson(?HN ), where HN is the N th harmonic number. The number of rows with a non-zero entry for a given column exhibits a ?rich gets richer? property ? a new row has a one in a given column with probability proportional to the number of times a one has appeared in that column in the preceding rows. Different patterns of behavior can be obtained with different choices of CRM. A three-parameter extension to the IBP [15] replaces the beta process with a completely random measure called the stable-beta process, which includes the beta process as a special case. The resulting random matrix exhibits power law behavior: the total number of features exhibited in a data set of size N grows as O(N s ) for some s > 0, and the number of data points exhibiting each feature also follows a power law. The number of features per data point, however, remains Poisson-distributed. The infinite gamma-Poisson process [iGaP, 18] replaces the beta process with a gamma process, and the Bernoulli process with a Poisson process, to give a distribution over non-negative integer-valued matrices with infinitely many columns and exchangeable rows. In this model, the sum of each row is distributed according to a negative binomial distribution, and the number of non-zero entries in each row is Poisson-distributed. The beta-negative binomial process [21] replaces the Bernoulli process with a negative binomial process to get an alternative distribution over non-negative integer-valued matrices. 2 3 Removing the Poisson assumption While different choices of CRMs in the de Finetti construction can alter the distribution over the number of data points that exhibit a feature and (in the case of non-binary matrices) the row sums, they retain a marginally Poisson distribution over the number of distinct features exhibited by a given data point. The construction of Caron [4] extends the IBP to allow the number of features in each row to follow a mixture of Poissons, by assigning data point-specific parameters that have an effect equivalent to a monotonic transformation on the atom sizes in the underlying beta process; however conditioned on these parameters, the sum of each row is still Poisson-distributed. This repeatedly occurring Poisson distribution is a direct result of the construction of a binary matrix from a combination of CRMs. To elaborate on this, note that, marginally, the distribution over the value of each element zik of a row zi of the IBP (or a three-parameter IBP) is given by a Bernoulli P distribution. Therefore, by the law of rare events, the sum k zik is distributed according to a Poisson distribution. A similar argument applies to integer-valued matrices such as the infinite gamma-Poisson process. Marginally, the distribution over whether an element zP ik is greater than zero is given by a Bernoulli distribution, hence the number of non-zero elements, k zik ? 1, is Poisson-distributed. The distriP bution over the row sum, k zik , will depend on the choice of CRMs. It follows that, if we wish to circumvent the requirement of a Poisson (or mixture of Poisson) number of features per data point in an IBP-like model, we must remove the completely random assumption on either the de Finetti mixing distribution or the family of conditional distributions. The remainder of this section discusses how we can obtain arbitrary marginal distributions over the number of features per row by using conditional distributions that are not completely random. 3.1 Restricting the family of conditional distributions in the de Finetti representation Recall from Section 2 that any exchangeable sequence can be represented as a mixture over some family of conditional distributions. The support of this family determines the support of the exchangeable sequence. For example, in the IBP the family of conditional distributions is the Bernoulli process, which has support in {0, 1}? . A sample from the IBP therefore has support in {{0, 1}? }N . We are familiar with the idea of restricting the support of a distribution to a measurable subset. For example, a truncated Gaussian is a Gaussian distribution restricted to a contiguous section of the real line. In general, we can restrict an arbitrary probability distribution ? with support ? to a measurable subset A ? ? by defining ?|A (?) := ?(?)I(? ? A)/?(A). Theorem 1 (Restricted exchangeable distributions). We can restrict the support of an exchangeable distribution by restricting the family of conditional distributions {?? }??? introduced in Equation 1, to obtain an exchangeable distribution on the restricted space. Proof. Consider an unrestricted exchangeable model with de Finetti representation QN p(x1 , . . . , xN , ?) = Let p|A be the restriction of p such that i=1 ?? (Xi = xi )?(?). Xi ? A, i = 1, 2, . . . , obtained by restricting the family of conditional distributions {?? } to |A {?? } as described above. Then QN |A QN i )I(xi ?A) ?(?) , p|A (x1 , . . . , xN , ?) = i=1 ?? (Xi = xi )?(?) = i=1 ?? (X?i?=x (Xi ?A) and p|A (xN +1 |x1 , . . . , xN ) ? I(xN +1 ? A) Z ? QN +1 ?? (Xi =xi ) Qi=1 ?(d?) N +1 i=1 ?? (Xi ?A) (2) is an exchangeable sequence by construction, according to de Finetti?s law. We give three examples of exchangeable matrices where the number of non-zero entries per row is restricted to follow a given distribution. While our focus is on exchangeability of the rows, we note that the following distributions (like their unrestricted counterparts) are invariant under reordering of the columns, and that the resulting matrices are separately exchangeable [2]. Example 1 (Restriction of the IBP to a fixed number of non-zero entries per row). The family of conditional distributions in the IBP is given by the Bernoulli process. We can restrict the support 3 ? of the Bernoulli process to an arbitrary P measurable subset A ? {0, 1} ? for example, the set of all vectors z ? {0, 1}? such that k zk = S for some integer S. The conditional distribution of a matrix Z = {z1 , . . . , zN } under such a distribution is given by: P QN ?B (Zi = zi )I( k zik = S) |S P ?B (Z = Z) = i=1 (?B ( k Zik = S))N (3) Q? mk  N  ? ? (1 ? ?k )N ?mk Y X = k=1 k I z = S , ik N PoiBin(S|{?k }? k=1 ) i=1 k=1 P where mk = i zik and PoiBin(?|{?k }? k=1 ) is the infinite limit of the Poisson-binomial distribution [6], which describes the distribution over the number of successes in a sequence of independent but non-identical Bernoulli trials. The probability of Z given in Equation 3 is the infinite limit of the conditional Bernoulli distribution [6], which describes the distribution of the locations of the successes in such a trial, conditioned on their sum. Example 2 (Restriction of the iGaP to a fixed number of non-zero entries per row). The family of conditional distributions in the iGaP is given by the Poisson process, which has support in N? . Following Example 1, we can restrict this support to the set of all vectors z ? N? such that P k zk ? 1 = S for some integer S ? i.e. the set of all non-negative integer-valued infinite vectors with S non-zero entries. The conditional distribution of a matrix Z = {z1 , . . . , zN } under such a distribution is given by: QN P? i = zi )I( |S i=1 ?G (ZP k=1 zik ? 1 = S) ?G (Z = Z) = ? (?G ( k=1 Zik ? 1 = S))N k e??k Q? ?m (4)  ? N X QkN Y k=1 z ! ik i=1 = zik ? 1 = S . I N PoiBin(S|{e??k }? k=1 ) i=1 k=1 Example 3 (Restriction of the IBP to a random number of non-zero entries per row). Rather than specify the number of non-zero entries in each row a priori, we can allow it to be random, with some arbitrary distribution f (?) over the non-negative integers. A Bernoulli process restricted to have f -marginals can be described as P? N N ? Y Y f (Si )I( k=1 zik = Si ) Y mk |S |f ?B i (Zi = zi )f (Si ) = ?k (1 ? ?k )N ?mk , (5) ?B (Z) = ? ) PoiBin(S |{? } i k k=1 i=1 i=1 k=1 P? P? where Sn = k=1 znk . If we marginalize over B = k=1 ?k ??k , the resulting distribution is exchangeable, because mixtures of i.i.d. distributions are i.i.d. We note that, even if we choose f to be Poisson(?), we will not recover the IBP. The IBP has Poisson(?) marginals over the number non-zero elements per row, but the conditional distribution is described by a Poisson-binomial distribution. The Poisson-restricted IBP, however, will have Poisson marginal and conditional distributions. Figure 1 shows some examples of samples from the single-parameter IBP, with parameter ? = 5, with various restrictions applied. IBP 1 per row 5 per row 10 per row Uniform{1,...,20} Power?law (s=2) Figure 1: Samples from restricted IBPs. 3.2 Direct restriction of the predictive distributions The construction in Section 3.1 is explicitly conditioned on a draw B from the de Finetti mixing distribution ?. Since it might be cumbersome to explicitly represent the infinite dimensional 4 object B, it is tempting to consider constructions that directly restrict the predictive distribution p(XN +1 |X1 , . . . , XN ), where B has been marginalized out. Unfortunately, the distribution over matrices obtained by this approach does not (in general ? see the appendix for a counter-example) correspond to the distribution over matrices obtained by restricting the family of conditional distributions. Moreover, the resulting distribution will not in general be exchangeable. This means it is not appropriate for data sets where we have no explicit ordering of the data, and also means we cannot directly use the predictive distribution to define a Gibbs sampler (as is possible in exchangeable models). Theorem 2 (Sequences obtained by directly restricting the predictive distribution of an exchangeable sequence are not, in general, exchangeable). Let p be the distribution of the unrestricted exchangeable model introduced in the proof of Theorem 1. Let p?|A be the distribution obtained by directly restricting this unrestricted exchangeable model such that Xi ? A, i.e. R QN +1 ?? (X = xi )?(d?) ?|A . (6) p (xN +1 |x1 , . . . , xN ) ? I(xN +1 ? A) R? Qi=1 N +1 i=1 ?? (X ? A)?(d?) ? In general, this will not be equal to Equation 2, and cannot be expressed as a mixture of i.i.d. distributions. Proof. To demonstrate that this is true, consider the counterexample given in Example 4. Example 4 (A three-urn buffet). Consider a simple form of the Indian buffet process, with a base measure consisting of three unit-mass atoms. We can represent the predictive distribution of such a model using three indexed urns, each containing one red ball (representing a one in the resulting matrix) and one blue ball (representing a zero in the resulting matrix). We generate a sequence of ball sequences by repeatedly picking a ball from each urn, noting the ordered sequence of colors, and returning the balls to their urns, plus one ball of each sampled color. Proposition 1. The three-urn buffet is exchangeable. Proof. By using the fact that a sequence is exchangeable iff the predictive distribution given the first N elements of the sequence of the N + 1st and N + 2nd entries is exchangeable [9], it is trivial to show that this model is exchangeable and that, for example, p(XN +1 = (r, b, r), XN +2 = (r, r, b)|X1:N ) m1 m2 (N + 1 ? m3 ) (m + 1 + 1)(N + 1 ? m2 )m3 ? = (7) (N + 1)3 (N + 2)3 =p(XN +1 = (r, r, b), XN +2 = (r, b, r)|X1:N ) , where mi is the number of times in the first N samples that the ith ball in a sample has been red. Proposition 2. The directly restricted three-urn scheme (and, by extension, the directly restricted IBP) is not exchangeable. Proof. Consider the same scheme, but where the outcome is restricted such that there is one, and only one, red ball per sample. The probability of a sequence in this restricted model is given by P3 mk k=1 N +1?mk I(xi = r) ? p (XN +1 = x|X1:N ) = P3 mk k=1 N +1?mk and, for example, p? (XN +1 = (r, b, b), XN +2 = (b, r, b)|X1:N ) m1 1 = PN +1?m mk k N +1?mk ? m2 N +1?m2 ? m2 N +2?m3 m2 N +2?m2 + mk k N +1?mk P (8) 6 p? (XN +1 = (b, r, b), XN +2 = (r, b, b)|X1:N ) , = therefore the restricted model is not exchangeable. By introducing a normalizing constant ? corresponding to restricting over a subset of {0, 1}3 ? that depends on the previous samples, we have broken the exchangeability of the sequence. By extension, a model obtained by directly restricting the predictive distribution of the IBP is not exchangeable. 5 We note that there may well be situations where a non-exchangeable model, such as that described in Proposition 2, is appropriate for our data ? for example where there is an explicit ordering on the data. It is not, however, an appropriate model if we believe our data to be exchangeable, or if we are interested in finding a single, stationary latent distribution describing our data. This exchangeable setting is the focus of this paper, so we defer exploration of distribution of non-exchangeable matrices obtained by restriction of the predictive distribution to future work. 4 Inference We focus on models obtained by restricting the IBP to have f -marginals over the number of nonzero elements per row, as described in Example 3. Note that when f = ?S , this yields the setting described in Example 1. Extension to other cases, such as the restricted iGaP model of Example 2, are straightforward. We work with a truncated model, where we approximate the countably infinite sequence {?k }? k=1 with a large, but finite, vector ? := (?1 , . . . , ?K ), where each atom ?k is distributed according to Beta(?/K, 1). An alternative approach would be to develop a slice sampler that uses a random truncation, avoiding Q the error introduced by the fixed truncation [14, 16]. We assume a likelihood function g(X|Z) = i g(xi |zi ). 4.1 Sampling the binary matrix Z For marginal functions f that assign probability mass to a contiguous, non-singleton subset of N, we can Gibbs sample each entry of Z according to P g(xi |zik = 1, Z?ik ) p(zik = 1|xi , ?, Z?ik , j6=k zij = a) ? ?k p(P fz(a+1) k k =a+1|?) (9) P f (a) p(zik = 0|xi , ?, Z?ik , j6=k zij = a) ? (1 ? ?k ) p(P zk =a|?) g(xi |zik = 0, Z?ik ). k P Where f = ?S , this approach will fail, since any move that changes zik must change k zik . In this (j) setting, instead, we sample the locations of the non-zero entries zi , j = 1, . . . , S of zi : (j) p(zi (?j) = k|xi , ?, zi (j) ) ? ?k (1 ? ?k )?1 g(xi |zi (?j) = k, zi ). (10) To improve mixing, we also include Metropolis-Hastings moves that propose an entire row of Z. We include details in the supplementary material. 4.2 Sampling the beta process atoms ? Conditioned on Z, the the distribution of ? is ?({?k }? k=1 |Z) ? |f ?{?k } (Z = Z)?({?k }? k=1 ) QK ? k=1 ? ?1) (m + K ?k k QN i=1 (1 ? ?k )N ?mk PoiBin(Si |?) . (11) P The Poisson-binomial term can be calculated exactly in O(K k zik ) using either a recursive algorithm [3, 5] or an algorithm based on the characteristic function that uses the Discrete Fourier Transform [8]. It can also be approximated using a skewed-normal approximation to the Poisson-binomial distribution [19]. We can therefore sample from the posterior of ? using Metropolis Hastings steps. Since we believe our posterior will be close to the posterior for the unrestricted model, we use the proposal distribution q(?k |Z) = Beta(?/K + mk , N + 1 ? mk ) to propose new values of ?k . 4.3 Evaluating the predictive distribution In certain cases, we may wish to directly evaluate the predictive distribution p|f (zN +1 |z1 , . . . , zN ). Unfortunately, in the case of the IBP, we are unable to perform the integral in Equation 2 analytically. We can, however, estimate the predictive distribution using importance sampling. We sample T measures ? (t) ? ?(?|Z), where ?(?|Z) is the posterior distribution over ? in the finite approximation to the IBP, and then weight them to obtain the restricted predictive distribution PT |f 1 t=1 wt ??(t) (zN +1 ) |f P p (zN +1 |z1 , . . . , zN ) ? , (12) T t wt 6 Figure 2: Top row: True features. Bottom row: Sample data points for S = 2. IBP rIBP S=2 7297.4 ? 2822.8 57.2 ? 66.4 S=5 8982.2 ? 1981.7 3469.7 ? 133.7 S=8 7442.8 ? 3602.0 5963.8 ? 871.4 S = 11 8862.1 ? 3920.2 11413 ? 1992.9 S = 14 20244 ? 6809.7 12199 ? 2593.8 Table 1: Structure error on synthetic data with 100 data points and S features per data point. |f where wt = ??(t) (z1 , . . . , zN )/??(t) (z1 , . . . , zN ), and ?|f ? (Z) PK K N Y f (Si )I( k=1 zik = Si ) Y mk ?k (1 ? ?k )N ?mk . ? PoiBin(S |?) i i=1 k=1 5 Experimental evaluation In this paper, we have described how distributions over exchangeable matrices, such as the IBP, can be modified to allow more flexible control over the distributions over the number of latent features. In this section, we perform experiments on both real and synthetic data. The synthetic data experiments are designed to show that appropriate restriction can yield more interpretable features. The experiments on real data are designed to show that careful choice of the distribution over the number of latent features in our models can lead to improved predictive performance. 5.1 Synthetic data The IBP has been used to discover latent features that correspond to interpretable phenomena, such as latent causes behind patient symptoms [20]. If we have prior knowledge about the number of latent features per data point ? for example, the number of players in a team, or the number of speakers in a conversation ? we may expect both better predictive performance, and more interpretable latent features. In this experiment, we evaluate this hypothesis on synthetic data, where the true latent features are known. We generated images by randomly selecting S of 16 binary features, shown in Figure 2, superimposing them, and adding isotropic Gaussian noise (? 2 = 0.25). We modeled the resulting data using an uncollapsed linear Gaussian model, as described in [7], using both the IBP, and the IBP restricted to have S features per row. To compare the generating matrix Z0 and our posterior estimate Z, we looked at the structure error [20]. This is the sum absolute difference between the upper triangular portions of Z0 ZT0 and E[ZZT ], and is a general measure of graph dissimilarity. Table 1 shows the structure error obtained using both a standard IBP model (IBP) and an IBP restricted to have the correct number of latent features (rIBP), for varying numbers of features S. In each case, the number of data points is 100, the IBP parameter ? is fixed to S, and the model is truncated to 50 features. Each experiment was repeated 10 times on independently generated data sets; we present the mean and standard deviation. All samplers were run for 5000 samples; the first 2500 were discarded as burn-in. Where the number of features per data point is small relative to the total number of features, the restricted model does a much better job at recovering the ?correct? latent structure. While the IBP may be able to explain the training data set as well as the restricted model, it will not in general recover the desired latent structure ? which is important if we wish to interpret the latent structure. Once the number of features per data point increases beyond half the total number of features, the model is ill-specified ? it is more parsimonious to represent features via the absence of a bar. As a result, both models perform poorly at recovering the generating structure. The restricted model ? and indeed the IBP ? should only be expected to recover easily interpretable features where the number of such features per data point is small relative to the total number of features. 7 IBP rIBP IBP rIBP 1 0.591 0.622 11 0.961 0.971 2 0.726 0.749 12 0.969 0.978 3 0.796 0.819 13 0.974 0.981 4 0.848 0.864 14 0.978 0.983 5 0.878 0.899 15 0.982 0.988 6 0.905 0.918 16 0.989 0.992 7 0.923 0.935 17 0.991 0.998 8 0.936 0.948 18 0.996 1.000 9 0.952 0.959 19 0.997 1.000 10 0.958 0.966 20 1.000 1.000 Table 2: Proportion correct at n on classifying documents from the 20newsgroup data set. 5.2 Classification of text data The IBP and its extensions have been used to directly model text data [17, 15]. In such settings, the IBP is used to directly model the presence or absence of words, and so the matrix Z is observed rather than latent, and the total number of features is given by the vocabulary size. We hypothesize that the Poisson assumption made by the IBP is not appropriate for text data, as the statistics of word use in natural language tends to follow a heavier tailed distribution [22]. To test this hypothesis, we modeled a collection of corpora using both an IBP, and an IBP restricted to have a negative Binomial distribution over the number of words. Our corpora were 20 collections of newsgroup postings on various topics (for example, comp.graphics, rec.autos, rec.sport.hockey)1 . No pre-processing of the documents was performed. Since the vocabulary (and hence the feature space) is finite, we truncated both models to the vocabulary size. Due to the very large state space, we restricted our samples such that, in a single sample, atoms with the same posterior distribution were assigned the same value. For each model, ? was set to the mean number of words per document in the corresponding group, and the maximum likelihood parameters were used for the negative Binomial distribution. To evaluate the quality of the models, we classified held out documents based on their likelihood under each of the 20 newsgroups. This experiment is designed to replicate an experiment performed by [15] to compare the original and three-parameter IBP models. For both models, we estimated the predictive distribution by generating 1000 samples from the posterior of the beta process in the IBP model. For the IBP, we used these samples directly to estimate the predictive distribution; for the restricted model, we used the importance-weighted samples obtained using Equation 12. For each model, we trained on 1000 randomly selected documents, and tested on a further 1000 documents. Table 2 shows the fraction of documents correctly classified in the first n labels ? i.e. the fraction of documents for which the correct labels is one of the n most likely. The restricted IBP (rIBP) performs uniformly better than the unrestricted model. 6 Discussion and future work The framework explored in this paper allows us to relax the distributional assumptions made by existing exchangeable nonparametric processes. As future work, we intend to explore which applications and models can most benefit from this greater flexibility. ? = P? ? We note that the model, as posed, suffers P from an identifiability issue. Let B k=1 ?k ??k be the ? ?k = ?k /(1 ? ?k ). Then, scaling measure obtained by transforming B = k=1 ?k ??k such that ? ? by a positive scalar does not affect the likelihood of a given matrix Z. We intend to explore the B consequences of this in future work. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Zoubin Ghahramani for valuable suggestions and discussions throughout this project. We would also like to thank Finale Doshi-Velez and Ryan Adams for pointing out the non-identifiability mentioned in Section 6. This research was supported in part by NSF grants DMS-1209194 and IIS-1111142, AFOSR grant FA95501010247, and NIH grant R01GM093156. 1 http://people.csail.mit.edu/jrennie/20Newsgroups/ 8 References ? ? e de Probabilit?es de Saint-Flour [1] D. Aldous. Exchangeability and related topics. Ecole d?Et? XIII, pages 1?198, 1985. [2] D. J. Aldous. Representations for partially exchangeable arrays of random variables. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 11(4):581?598, 1981. [3] R. E. Barlow and K. D. Heidtmann. Computing k-out-of-n system reliability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 33:322?323, 1984. [4] F. Caron. Bayesian nonparametric models for bipartite graphs. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2012. [5] S. X Chen, A. P. Dempster, and J. S. Liu. Weighted finite population sampling to maximize entropy. Biometrika, 81:457?469, 1994. [6] S. X. Chen and J. S. Liu. Statistical applications of the Poisson-binomial and conditional Bernoulli distributions. Statistica Sinica, 7:875?892, 1997. [7] F. Doshi-Velez and Z. Ghahramani. Accelerated Gibbs sampling for the Indian buffet process. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2009. [8] M. Fern?andez and S. Williams. Closed-form expression for the Poisson-binomial probability density function. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace Electronic Systems, 46:803?817, 2010. [9] S. Fortini, L. Ladelli, and E. Regazzini. Exchangeability, predictive distributions and parametric models. Sankhy?a: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series A, pages 86?109, 2000. [10] E. B. Fox, E. B. Sudderth, M. I. Jordan, and A. S. Willsky. Sharing features among dynamical systems with beta processes. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2010. [11] T. L. Griffiths and Z. Ghahramani. Infinite latent feature models and the Indian buffet process. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2005. [12] J. F. C. Kingman. Completely random measures. Pacific Journal of Mathematics, 21(1):59?78, 1967. [13] K. T. Miller, T. L. Griffiths, and M. I. Jordan. Nonparametric latent feature models for link prediction. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2009. [14] R. M. Neal. Slice sampling. Annals of Statistics, 31(3):705?767, 2003. [15] Y. W. Teh and D. G?or?ur. Indian buffet processes with power law behaviour. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2009. [16] Y. W. Teh, D. G?or?ur, and Z. Ghahramani. Stick-breaking construction for the Indian buffet process. In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2007. [17] R. Thibaux and M.I. Jordan. Hierarchical beta processes and the Indian buffet process. In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2007. [18] M. Titsias. The infinite gamma-Poisson feature model. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2007. [19] A. Y. Volkova. A refinement of the central limit theorem for sums of independent random indicators. Theory of Probability and its Applications, 40:791?794, 1996. [20] F. Wood, T. L. Griffiths, and Z. Ghahramani. A non-parametric Bayesian method for inferring hidden causes. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2006. [21] M. Zhou, L. A. Hannah, D. B. Dunson, and L. Carin. Beta-negative binomial process and Poisson factor analysis. In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2012. [22] G. K. Zipf. Selective Studies and the Principle of Relative Frequency in Language. Harvard University Press, 1932. 9
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Approximate inference in latent Gaussian-Markov models from continuous time observations Botond Cseke1 Manfred Opper2 School of Informatics University of Edinburgh, U.K. {bcseke,gsanguin}@inf.ed.ac.uk 1 Guido Sanguinetti1 Computer Science TU Berlin, Germany [email protected] 2 Abstract We propose an approximate inference algorithm for continuous time Gaussian Markov process models with both discrete and continuous time likelihoods. We show that the continuous time limit of the expectation propagation algorithm exists and results in a hybrid fixed point iteration consisting of (1) expectation propagation updates for discrete time terms and (2) variational updates for the continuous time term. We introduce postinference corrections methods that improve on the marginals of the approximation. This approach extends the classical Kalman-Bucy smoothing procedure to non-Gaussian observations, enabling continuous-time inference in a variety of models, including spiking neuronal models (state-space models with point process observations) and box likelihood models. Experimental results on real and simulated data demonstrate high distributional accuracy and significant computational savings compared to discrete-time approaches in a neural application. 1 Introduction Continuous time stochastic processes provide a flexible and popular framework for data modelling in a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. Their intrinsically non-parametric, infinitedimensional nature also makes them a challenging field for the development of efficient inference algorithms. Recent years have seen several such algorithms being proposed for a variety of models [Opper and Sanguinetti, 2008, Opper et al., 2010, Rao and Teh, 2012]. Most inference work has focused on the scenario when observations are available at a finite set of time points, however, modern technologies are making effectively continuous time observations increasingly common: for example, high speed imaging technologies now enable the acquisition of biological data at around 100Hz for extended periods of time. Other scenarios give intrinsically continuous time observations: for example, sensors monitoring the transit of a particle through a barrier provide continuous time data on the particle?s position. To the best of our knowledge, this problem has not been addressed in the statistical machine learning community. In this paper, we propose an expectation-propagation (EP)-type algorithm [Opper and Winther, 2000, Minka, 2001] for latent diffusion processes observed in either discrete or continuous time. We derive fixed-point update equations by considering a continuous time limit of the parallel EP algorithm [e.g. Opper and Winther, 2005, Cseke and Heskes, 2011b]: these fixed point updates naturally become differential equations in the continuous time limit. Remarkably, we show that, in the presence of continuous time observations, the update equations for the EP algorithm reduce to updates for a variational Gaussian approximation [Archambeau et al., 2007]. We also generalise to the continuous-time limit the EP correction scheme of [Cseke and Heskes, 2011b], which enable us to capture some of the non-Gaussian behaviour of the time marginals. 1 2 Models and methods We consider dynamical systems described by multivariate stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) type over the [0, 1] time interval 1/2 dxt = (At xt + ct )dt + Bt dWt , (1) where {Wt }t is the standard Wiener process [Gardiner, 2002] and At , Bt and ct are time dependent matrix and vector valued functions respectively with Bt being positive definite for all t ? [0, 1]. Even though the process does not posses a formulation through density functions (with respect to the Lebesgue measure), in order to be able to symbolically represent and manipulate the variables of the process in the Bayesian formalism, we will use the proxy p0 ({xt }) to denote their distribution. The process can be observed (noisily) both at discrete time points, and for continuous time intervals; we will partition the observations in ytdi , ti ? Td and ytc , t ? [0, 1] accordingly. We assume that the likelihood function admits the general formulation p({ytdi }i , {ytc }| {xt }) ? ? ti ?Td ? ? 1 ? p(ytdi |xti ) ? exp ? dtV (t, ytc , xt ) . (2) 0 We refer to p(ytdi |xti ) and V (t, ytc , xt ) as discrete time likelihood term and continuous time loss function, respectively. We notice that, using Girsanov?s theorem and Ito?s lemma, non-linear diffusion equations with constant (diagonal) diffusion matrix can be re-written in the form (1)-(2), provided the drift can be obtained as the gradient of a potential function [e.g. ?ksendal, 2010]. Our aim is to propose approximate inference methods to compute the marginals p(xt |{ytdi }i , {ytc }) of the posterior distribution p({xt }t |{ytdi }i , {ytc }) ? p({ytdi }i , {ytc }| {xt }) ? p0 ({xt }). 2.1 Exact inference in Gaussian models We start form the exact case of Gaussian observations and quadratic loss function. The linearity of equation (1) implies that the marginal distributions of the process at every time point are Gaussian (assuming Gaussian initial conditions). The time evolution of the marginal mean mt and covariance Vt is governed by the pair of differential equations [Gardiner, 2002] d mt = At mt + ct dt and d Vt = At Vt + Vt ATt + Bt . dt (3) In the case of Gaussian observations and a quadratic loss function V (t, ytc , xt ) = const. ? xTt hct + 1 T c 2 xt Qt xt , these equations, together with their backward analogues, enable an exact recursive inference algorithm, known as the Kalman-Bucy smoother [e.g. S?arkk?a, 2006]. This algorithm arises because we can recast the loss function as an auxiliary (observation) process 1/2 dytc = xt dt + Rt dWt , (4) where Rt?1 = Qct and Rt?1 dytc /dt = hct . This follows by the Gaussianity of the observation process and the fundamental property of Ito?s calculus dWt2 = Idt. The Kalman-Bucy algorithm computes the posterior marginal means and covariances by solving the differential equations in a forward-backward fashion. These can be combined with classical Kalman filtering to account for discrete-time observations. The exact form of the equations as well as the variational derivation of the Kalman-Bucy problem are given in Section B of the Supplementary Material. 2.2 Approximate inference In this section we use an Euler discretisation of the prior and the continuous time likelihood to turn our model into a multivariate latent Gaussian model. We review the EP algorithm for such models and then we show that when taking the limit ?t ? 0 the updates of the EP algorithm exist. The resulting approximate posterior process is again an OU process and we compute its parameters. Finally, we show how corrections to the marginals proposed [Cseke and Heskes, 2011b] can be extended to the continuous time case. 2 2.2.1 Euler discretisation Let T = {t1 = 0, t2 , . . . , tK?1 , tK = 1} be a discretisation of the [0, 1] interval and let the matrix x = [xt1 , . . . , xtK ] represent the process {xt }t using the discretisation given by T . Without loss of generality we can assume that Td ? T . We assume the Euler-Maruyama approach and approximate p({xt }) by1 p0 (x) = N (x0 ; m0 , V0 ) ? N (xtk+1 ; xtk + (Atk xtk + ctk )?tk , ?tk Btk ) k and in a similar fashion we approximate the continuous time likelihood by p(y c |x) ? exp ? ? ? ?tk V (tk , ytck , xtk ) k ? , where y c is the matrix y c = [ytc1 , . . . , ytcK ]. Consequently we approximate our model by the latent Gaussian model p({ytdi }i , y c , x) = p0 (x) ? ? i p(ytdi |xti ) ? k ? ? exp ??tk V (tk , ytck , xtk ) where we remark that the prior p0 has a block-diagonal precision structure.? To simplify notation,?in the following we use the aliases ?di (xti ) = p(ytdi |xti ) and ?ck (xtk ; ?tk ) = exp ??tk V (tk , ytck , xtk ) . 2.2.2 Inference using expectation propagation Expectation propagation [Opper and Winther, 2000, Minka, 2001] is a well known algorithm that provides good approximations of the posterior marginals in latent Gaussian models. We use here the parallel EP approach [e.g. Cseke and Heskes, 2011b]; similar continuous time limiting arguments can be made for the original (sequential) EP approach. The algorithm approximates the posterior p(x|{ytdi }i , y c ) by a Gaussian q0 (x) ? p0 (x) ? ??di (xti ) i ? ??ck (xtk ; ?tk ), k where ??di and ??ck are Gaussian functions. When applied to our model the algorithm proceeds by performing the fixed point iteration [??di (xti )] new [??ck (xtk ; ?tk )] new Collapse(?di (xti )??di (xti )?1 q0 (xti ); N ) ? ??di (xti ) for all ti ? Td , q0 (xti ) Collapse(?ck (xtk ; ?tk )??ck (xtk ; ?tk )?1 q0 (xtk ); N ) ? ? ??ck (xtk ; ?tk ) q0 (xtk ) ? (5) for all tk ? T, (6) where Collapse(p(z); N ) = argminq?N D[p(z)||q(z)] denotes the projection of the density p(z) into the Gaussian family denoted by N . In other words, Collapse(p(z); N ) is the Gaussian density that matches the first and second moments of p(z). Readers familiar with the classical formulation of EP [Minka, 2001] will recognise in equation (5) the so-called term updates, where ??di (xti )?1 q0 (xti ) is the cavity distribution and ?di (xti )??di (xti )?1 q0 (xti ) the tilted distribution. Equations (5-6) imply that at any fixed point of the iterations we have q(xti ) = Collapse(?di (xti )??di (xti )?1 q0 (xti ); N ) and q(xtk ) = Collapse(?ck (xtk ; ?tk )??ck (xtk ; ?tk )?1 q0 (xtk ); N ). The algorithm can also be derived and justified as a constrained optimisation problem of a Gibbs free energy formulation [Heskes et al., 2005]; this alternative approach can also be shown to extend to the continuous time limit (see Section A.2 of the Supplementary Material) and provides a useful tool for approximate evidence calculations. Equation (5) does not depend on the time discretisation, and hence provides a valid update equation also working directly with the continuous time process. On the other hand, the quantities in equation (6) depend explicitly on ?tk , and it is necessary to ensure that they remain well defined (and computable) in the continuous time limit. In order to derive the limiting behaviour of (6) we introduce the the following notation: (i) we use f (z) = (z, ?zz T /2) to denote the sufficient statistic of a multivariate Gaussian (ii), we use ?dti = (hdti , Qdti ) as the canonical parameters corresponding to the Gaussian function ??di (xti ) ? exp{?dti ? f (xti )}2 , (iii) we use ?ctk = (hctk , Qctk ) as the canonical parameters corresponding to the Gaussian function ??ck (xtk ) ? exp{?tk ?ctk ? f (xtk )}, and finally, (iv) we use Collapse(p(z); f ) as 1 We remark that one could also integrate the OU process between time steps, yielding an exact finite dimensional marginal of the prior. In the limit however both procedures are equivalent. 2 We use ??? as scalar product for general (concatenated) vector objects, for example, x?y = xT y when x, y ? Rn . 3 the canonical parameters corresponding to the density Collapse(p(z); N ). By using this notation we can rewrite (6) as [?ctk ]new = ?ctk + with ? 1 ? Collapse(qc (xtk ); f ) ? Collapse(q0 (xtk ); f ) ?tk (7) qc (xtk ) ? exp(??tk [V (tk , xtk ) + ?ctk ? f (xtk )])q0 (xtk ). (8) The approximating density can then be written as q0 (x) ? p0 (x) ? exp ?? i ?dti ? f (xti ) + ? k ? ?tk ?ctk ? f (xtk ) . (9) By direct Taylor expansion of Collapse(qc (xtk ); f ) one can show that the update equation (7) remains finite when we take the limit ?tk ? 0. A slightly more general perspective however affords greater insight into the algorithm, as shown below. 2.2.3 Continuous time limit of the update equations Let ?tk = Collapse(q0 (xtk ); f ) and denote by Z(?tk , ?tk ) and Z(?tk ) the normalisation constant of qc (xtk ) and q0 (xtk ) respectively. The notation emphasises that qc (xtk ) differs from q0 (xtk ) by a term dependent on the granularity of the discretisation ?tk . We exploit the well known fact that the derivatives with respect to the canonical parameters of the log normalisation constant of a distribution within the exponential family give the moment parameters of the distribution. From the definition of qc (xtk ) in equation (8) we then have that its first two moments can be computed as ??tk log Z(?tk , ?tk ). The Collapse operation in (7) can then be rewritten as Collapse(qc (xtk ); f ) = ?(??tk log Z(?tk , ?tk )), (10) where ? is the function transforming the moment parameters of a Gaussian into its (canonical) parameters. We now assume ?tk to be small and expand Z(?tk , ?tk ) to first order in ?tk . By using the property that 1/? lim??0+ ?g(z)? ?p(z) = exp(?log g(x)?p ) for any distribution p(z) and g(z) > 0, one can write lim ?tk ?0 ? ?1/?t 1 [log Z(?tk , ?tk ) ? log Z(?tk )] = log lim exp{??tk [V (tk , xtk ) + ?ctk ? f (xtk )]} q (x k ) tk 0 ?tk ?0 ?tk ? ? c = ? [V (tk , xtk ) + ?tk ? f (xtk )] q (x ) 0 = ? ?V (tk , xtk )?q0 (xt k tk ?1 (?tk )?ctk , ) ?? (11) where we exploited the fact that ?f (xtk )?q0 (xtk ) are the moments of the q0 (xtk ) distribution. We can now exploit the fact that ?tk is small and linearise the nonlinear map ? about the moments of q0 (xtk ) to obtain a first order approximation to equation (10) as Collapse(qc (xtk ); f ) ? ?tk ? ?tk ?ctk ? ?tk J? (?tk )??tk ?V (tk , xtk )?q0 (xt k ) (12) where J? (?tk ) denotes the Jacobian matrix of the map ? evaluated at ?tk . The second term on the r.h.s. of equation (12) follows from the obvious identity ??tk ?(??1 (?tk )) = I. By substituting (12) into (7), we take the limit ?tk ? 0 and obtain the update equations [?ct ]new = ?J? (?t )??t ?V (t, xt )?q0 (xt ) for all t ? [0, 1]. (13) Notice that the updating of ?ct is somewhat hidden in equation (13); the ?old? parameters are in fact contained in the parameters ?tk . Since ?ct corresponds to the canonical parameters of a multivariate Gaussian, we can use the representation ?ct = (hct , Qct ) and after some algebra on the moment-canonical transformation of Gaussians we write the fixed point iteration as [hct ]new = ??mt ?V (t, xt )?q0 (xt ) + 2?Vt ?V (t, xt )?q0 (xt ) mt and [Qct ]new = ?Vt ?V (t, xt )?q0 (xt ) , (14) where mt and Vt are the marginal means and covariances of q0 at the ?tk ? 0. Algorithmically, computing the marginal moments and covariances of the discretised Gaussian q0 (x) in (9) can be done by solving a sparse linear system and doing partial matrix inversion using the Cholesky factorisation and the Takahashi equations as in Cseke and Heskes [2011b]. This corresponds to a junction tree algorithm on a (block) chain graph [Davis, 2006] which, in the continuous time limit, can be reduced to a set of differential equations 4 due to the chain structure of the graph. Alternatively, one can notice that, in the continuous time limit, the structure of q0 (x) in equation (9) defines a posterior process for an OU process p0 ({xt }) observed at discrete times with Gaussian noise (corresponding to the terms ??di (xti ) with canonical parameters ?dti ) and with a quadratic continuous time loss, which is computed using equation (14). The moments therefore be computed using the Kalman-Bucy algorithm; details of the algorithm are given in Section B.1 of the Supplementary Material. The derivation above illustrates another interesting characteristic of working with continuous-time likelihoods. Readers familiar with the fractional free energies and the power EP algorithm may notice that the time lag ?tk plays a similar role as the fractional or power parameter ?. It is well known property that in the ? ? 0 limit the algorithm and the free energy collapses to variational [e.g. Wiegerinck and Heskes, 2003, Cseke and Heskes, 2011a] and thus, intuitively, the collapse and the existence of the limit is related to this property. Overall, we arrive to a hybrid algorithm in which: (i) the canonical parameters (hdti , Qdti ) corresponding to the discrete time terms are updated by the usual EP updates in (5), (ii) the canonical parameters (hct , Qct ) corresponding to the continuous loss function V (t, xt ) are updated by the variational updates in (14) (iii), the marginal moment parameters of q0 (xt ) are computed by the forward-backward differential equations referred to in Section 2.1. We can use either parallel or a forward-backward type scheduling. A more detailed description of the inference algorithm is given in Section C of the Supplementary Material. The algorithm performs well in the comfort zone of EP, that is, log-concave discrete likelihood terms and convex loss. Non-convergence can occur in case of multimodal likelihoods and loss functions and alternative options to optimise the free energy have to be explored [e.g. Heskes et al., 2005, Archambeau et al., 2007]. 2.2.4 Parameters of the approximating OU process The fixed point iteration scheme computes only the marginal means and covariances of q0 ({xt }) and it does not provide a parametric OU process as an approximation. However, this can be computed by finding the parameters of an OU process that matches q0 in the moment matching Kullback-Leibler divergence. That is, if q ? ({xt }) minimises D[q0 ({xt })||q ? ({xt })], then the parameters of q ? are given by A?t = At ? Bt [Vtbw ]?1 , c?t = ct + Bt [Vtbw ]?1 mbw t and Bt? = Bt , (15) bw where mbw are computed by the backward Kalman-Bucy filtering equations. The computations t and Vt are somewhat lengthy; a full derivation can be found in Section B.3 of the Supplementary Material. 2.2.5 Corrections to the marginals In this section we extend the factorised correction method for multivariate latent Gaussian models introduced in Cseke and Heskes [2011b] to continuous time observations. Other correction schemes [e.g. Opper et al., 2009] can in principle also be applied. We start again from the discretised representation and then take the ?tk ? 0. To begin with, we focus on the corrections from the continuous time observation process. By removing the Gaussian terms (with canonical parameters ?ctk ) from the approximate posterior and replacing them with the exact likelihood, we can rewrite the exact discretised posterior as p(x) ? q0 (x) ? exp ? ? ? k ? ?tk [V (tk , xtk ) + ?ctk ? f (xt )] . The exact posterior marginal at time tj is thus given by with ? ? p(xtj ) ? q0 (xtj )? exp ? ?tj [V (tj , xtj + ?ctj ? f (xtj ))] ? cT (xtj ) ? ? ? ? cT (xtj ) = dx\tj q0 (x\tj |xtj ) ? exp ? ?tk [V (tk , xtk ) + ?ctk ? f .(xtk )] , k?=j where the subscript \j indicates the whole vector with the j-th entry removed. By approximating the joint conditional q0 (x\tj |xtj ) with a product of its marginals and taking the ?tk ? 0 limit, we obtain c(xt ) ? exp ? ? ? 1 0 ? ds ?V (s, xs ) + ?cs ? f (xs )?q0 (xs |xt ) . When combining the continuous part and the factorised discrete time corrections?by adding the discrete time terms to the formalism above?we arrive to the corrected approximate marginal p?(xt ) ? q0 (xt ) exp ? ? ? 1 0 ds ?V (s, xs ) + ?cs ? f (xs )?q0 (xs |xt ) ? ? ? i ? p(ytdi |xti ) exp{?dti ? f (xti )} ? . q0 (xti |xt ) For any fixed t one can compute the correlations in linear time by using the parametric form of the approximation in 15. The evaluations for a fixed xt are also linear in time. 5 Marginal distributions at t=0.3351 3 sampling at 10?3 variational. corr variational Gaussian 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 ?1 ?0.8 ?0.6 ?0.4 ?0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Figure 1: Inference results for the toy model in Section 3.1. The continuous time potential is defined as V (t, xt ) = (2xt )8 I[1/2,2/3] (t) and we assume two hard box discrete likelihood terms I[?0.25,0.25] (xt1 ) and I[?0.25,0.25] (xt2 ) placed at t1 = 1/3 and t2 = 2/3. The prior is defined by the parameters at = ?1, ct = 4? cos(4?t) and bt = 4. The left panel shows the prior?s and the posterior approximation?s marginal means and standard deviations. The right panel shows the marginal approximations at t = 0.3351, a region where we expect the corrections to be strongly influenced by both types of likelihoods. Samples were generated by using the lag ?t = 10?3 , the approximate inference was run using RK4 at ?t = 10?4 . 3 3.1 Experiments Inference in a (soft) box The first example we consider is a mixed discrete-continuous time inference under box and soft box likelihood observations respectively. We consider a diffusing particle on the line under an OU prior process of the form dxt = (?axt + ct )dt + ? bdWt with a = ?1, ct = 4? cos(4?t) and b = 4. The likelihood model is given by the loss function V (t, xt ) = (2xt )8 for all t ? [1/2, 2/3] and 0 otherwise, effectively confining the process to a narrow strip near zero (soft box). This likelihood is therefore an approximation to physically realistic situations where particles can perform diffusion in a confined environment. The box has hard gates: two discrete time likelihoods given by the indicator functions I[?0.25,0.25] (xt1 ) and I[?0.25,0.25] (xt2 ) placed at the ends of the interval, that is, Td = {1/3, 2/3}. The left panel in Figure 1 shows the prior and approximate posterior processes (mean ? one standard deviation) in pink and cyan respectively: the confinement of the process to the box is in clear evidence, as well as the narrowing of the confidence intervals corresponding to the two discrete time observations. The right panel in Figure 1 shows the marginal approximations at a time point shortly after the ?gate? to the box, these are: (i) sampling (grey) (ii) the Gaussian EP approximation (blue line), and (iii) its corrected version (red line). The time point was chosen as we expect the strongest non-Gaussian effects to be felt near the discrete likelihoods; the corrected distribution does indeed show strong skewness. To benchmark the method, we compare it to MCMC sampling obtained by using slice sampling [Murray et al., 2010] on the discretised model with ?t = 10?3 . We emphasise that this is an approximation to the model, hence the benchmark is not a true gold standard; however, we are not aware of sampling schemes that would be able to perform inference under the exact continuous time likelihood. The histogram in Figure 1 was generated from a sample size of 105 following a burn in of 104 . The Gaussian EP approach gives a very good reconstruction of the first two moments of the distribution. The corrected EP approximation is very close to the MCMC results. 3.2 Log Gaussian Cox processes Another family of models where one encounters continuous time likelihoods is point processes; these processes find wide application in a number of disciplines, from neuroscience Smith and Brown [2003] to conflict modelling Zammit-Mangion et al. [2012]. We assume that we have a multivariate log Gaussian Cox process model [Kingman, 1992]: this is defined by a d-variate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process {xt }t 6 Figure 2: A toy example for the point process model in Section 3.2. The prior is defined by A = [?2, 1, 0, 1; 1, ?2, 1, 0; 0, 1, ?2, 1; 1, 0, 1, ?2], cit = 4i? cos(2i?t), B = 4I. We use ?i = 0. The prior means and standard deviations, the sampled process path, and the sampled events are shown on the left panel while the posterior approximations are shown on the right panel. on the [0, 1] interval. Conditioned on {xt }t we have d Poisson point processes with intensities given by i ?it = e?i +xt for all i = 1, . . . , d and t ? [0, 1]. The likelihood of this point process model is formed by both discrete time (point probabilities) and continuous time (void probability) terms and can be written as log ? i . ? p(Yi |{xit }t ) = i ? ? e ?i ? 1 0 i dtext + |Yi |?i + {xit }t . ? tk ?Yi ? xit , where Yi denotes the set of observed event times corresponding to Clearly, the discrete time observations in this model are (degenerate) Gaussians, therefore, one may opt for starting with an OU process with a translated drift, however, for consistency reasons, we treat them as discrete time observations. In this example we chose d = 4 and A = [?2, 1, 0, 1; 1, ?2, 1, 0; 0, 1, ?2, 1; 1, 0, 1, ?2], thus coupling the ? t }t , various processes. We chose cit = 4i? cos(2i?t), B = 4I and ?i = 0. We generate a sample path {x draw observations Yi based on {? xit }t and perform inference. The results are shown in Figure 2, with four colours distinguishing the four processes. The left panel shows prior processes (mean ? standard deviation), sample paths and (bottom row) the sampled points (i.e. the data). The right panel shows the corresponding posterior processes approximations. The results reflect the general pattern characteristic of fitting point process data: in regions with a substantial number of events the sampled path can be inferred with great accuracy (accurate mean, low standard deviation) whereas in regions with no or only a few events the fit reverts to a skewed/shifted prior path, as the void probability dominates. 3.3 Point process modelling of neural spikes trains In a third example we consider continuous time point process inference for spike time recordings from a population of neurons. This type of data is frequently modelled using (discrete time) state-space models with point process observations (SSPP) [Smith and Brown, 2003, Zammit Mangion et al., 2011, Macke et al., 2011]; parameter estimation from such models can reveal biologically relevant facts about the neuron?s electrophysiology which are not apparent from the spike trains themselves. We consider a dataset from Di Lorenzo and Victor [2003], available at www.neurodatabase.org, consisting of recordings of spiking patterns of taste response cells in Sprague-Dawley rats during presentation of different taste stimuli. The recordings are 10s each at a resolution of 10?3 s, and four different taste stimuli: (i) NaCL, (ii) Quinine HCl, (iii) Quinine HCl, and (iv) Sucrose are presented to the subjects for the duration of the first 5s of the 10s recording window. We modelled the spike train recordings by univariate log Gaussian Cox process models (see Section 3.2) with homogeneous OU priors, that is, At , ct and Bt were considered constant. We use the variational EM algorithm (discrete time likelihoods are Gaussian) to learn the prior 7 The fitted (c,?) parameters 5 4.5 4 ? 3.5 3 2.5 NaCl Quinine HCl Sucrose 2 1.5 1 ?10 0 10 c 20 30 Figure 3: Inference results on data from cell 9 form the dataset in Section 3.3. The top-left, bottom-left and centre panels show the intensity fit, event count and the Q-Q plot corresponding to one of the recordings, whereas the right panel shows the learned c and ? parameters for all spike trains in cell 9. parameters A, c and ? and initial conditions for each individual recording. We scaled the 10s window into the unit interval [0, 1] and used a 10?4 resolution. Fig 3 shows example results of this procedure. The right panel shows an emergent pattern of stimulus based clustering of ? and c as in Zammit Mangion et al. [2011]. We observe that discrete-time approaches such as [Smith and Brown, 2003, Zammit Mangion et al., 2011] are usually forced to take very fine time discretisation by the requirement that at most one spike happens during one time step. This leads to significant computational resources being invested in regions with few spikes. Our continuous time approach, on the other hand, handles uneven observations naturally. 4 Conclusion Inference methodologies for continuous time stochastic processes are a subject of intense research, both for fundamental and applied research. This paper contributes a novel approach which allows inference from both discrete time and continuous time observations. Our results show that the method is effective in accurately reconstructing marginal posterior distributions, and can be deployed effectively on real world problems. Furthermore, it has recently been shown [Kappen et al., 2012] that optimal control problems can be recast in inference terms: in many cases, the relevant inference problem is of the same type as the one considered here, hence this methodology could in principle also be used in control problems. The method is based on the parallel EP formulation of Cseke and Heskes [2011b]: interestingly, we show that the EP updates from continuous time observations collapse to variational updates [Archambeau et al., 2007]. Algorithmically, our approach results in efficient forward-backward updates, compared to the gradient ascent algorithm of Archambeau et al. [2007]. Furthermore, the EP perspective allows us to compute corrections to the Gaussian marginals; in our experiments, these turned out to be highly accurate. Our modelling framework assumes a latent linear diffusion process; however, as mentioned before, some non-linear diffusion processes are equivalent to posterior processes for OU processes observed in continuous time [?ksendal, 2010]. Our approach, hence, can also be viewed as a method for accurate marginal computations in (a class of) nonlinear diffusion processes observed with noise. In general, all non-linear diffusion processes can be recast in a form similar to the one considered here; the important difference though is that the continuous time likelihood is in general an Ito integral, not a regular integral. In the future, it would be interesting to explore the extension of this approach to general non-linear diffusion processes, as well as discrete and hybrid stochastic processes [Rao and Teh, 2012, Ocone et al., 2013]. Acknowledgements B.Cs. is funded by BBSRC under grant BB/I004777/1. M.O. would like to thank for the support by EU grant FP7-ICT-270327 (Complacs). G.S. acknowledges support from the ERC under grant MLCS-306999. 8 References C. Archambeau, D. Cornford, M. Opper, and J. Shawe-Taylor. Gaussian process approximations of stochastic differential equations. Journal of Machine Learning Research - Proceedings Track, 1:1?16, 2007. B. Cseke and T. Heskes. Properties of Bethe free energies and message passing in Gaussian models. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 41:1?24, 2011a. B. Cseke and T. Heskes. Approximate marginals in latent Gaussian models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:417?457, 2011b. T. A. Davis. Direct Methods for Sparse Linear Systems (Fundamentals of Algorithms 2). Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, 2006. P. M. Di Lorenzo and J. D. Victor. Taste response variability and temporal coding in the nucleus of the solitary tract of the rat. Journal of Neurophysiology, 90:1418?1431, 2003. C. W. Gardiner. Handbook of stochastic methods: for physics, chemistry and the natural sciences. 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Bayesian inference as iterated random functions with applications to sequential inference in graphical models XuanLong Nguyen Department of Statistics University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 [email protected] Arash A. Amini Department of Statistics University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 [email protected] Abstract We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors of exact and approximate message-passing algorithms that arise in a sequential change point detection problem formulated via a latent variable directed graphical model. The sequential inference algorithm and its supporting theory are illustrated by simulated examples. 1 Introduction The sequential posterior updates play a central role in many Bayesian inference procedures. As an example, in Bayesian inference one is interested in the posterior probability of variables of interest given the data observed sequentially up to a given time point. As a more specific example which provides the motivation for this work, in a sequential change point detection problem [1], the key quantity is the posterior probability that a change has occurred given the data observed up to present time. When the underlying probability model is complex, e.g., a large-scale graphical model, the calculation of such quantities in a fast and online manner is a formidable challenge. In such situations approximate inference methods are required ? for graphical models, message-passing variational inference algorithms present a viable option [2, 3]. In this paper we propose to treat Bayesian inference in a complex model as a specific instance of an abstract system of iterated random functions (IRF), a concept that originally arises in the study of Markov chains and stochastic systems [4]. The key technical property of the proposed IRF formalism that enables the connection to Bayesian inference under conditionally independent sampling is the semigroup property, which shall be defined shortly in the sequel. It turns out that most exact and approximate Bayesian inference algorithms may be viewed as specific instances of an IRF system. The goal of this paper is to present a general convergence theory for the IRF with semigroup property. The theory is then applied to the analysis of exact and approximate message-passing inference algorithms, which arise in the context of distributed sequential change point problems using latent variable and directed graphical model as the underlying modeling framework. We wish to note a growing literature on message-passing and sequential inference based on graphical modeling [5, 6, 7, 8]. On the other hand, convergence and error analysis of message-passing algorithms in graphical models is quite rare and challenging, especially for approximate algorithms, and they are typically confined to the specific form of belief propagation (sum-product) algorithm [9, 10, 11]. To the best of our knowledge, there is no existing work on the analysis of messagepassing inference algorithms for calculating conditional (posterior) probabilities for latent random 1 variables present in a graphical model. While such an analysis is a byproduct of this work, the viewpoint we put forward here that equates Bayesian posterior updates to a system of iterated random functions with semigroup property seems to be new and may be of general interest. The paper is organized as follows. In Sections 2? 3, we introduce the general IRF system and provide our main result on its convergence. The proof is deferred to Section 5. As an example of the application of the result, we will provide a convergence analysis for an approximate sequential inference algorithm for the problem of multiple change point detection using graphical models. The problem setup and the results are discussed in Section 4. 2 Bayesian posterior updates as iterated random functions In this paper we shall restrict ourselves to multivariate distributions of binary random variables. To describe the general iteration, let Pd := P({0, 1}d) be the space of probability measures on {0, 1}d. The iteration under consideration recursively produces a random sequence of elements of d Pd , starting from some initial value. We think of Pd as a subset of R2 equipped with the ?1 norm (that is, the total variation norm for discrete probability measures). To simplify, let m := 2d , and for x ? Pd , index its coordinates as x = (x0 , . . . , xm?1 ). For ? ? Rm + , consider the function q? : Pd ? Pd , defined by q? (x) := x? ? xT ? (1) P i i m and x ? ? is pointwise multiplication where xT ? = i x ? is the usual inner product on R i i i with coordinates [x ? ?] := x ? , for i = 0, 1, . . . , m ? 1. This function models the prior-toposterior update according to the Bayes rule. One can think of ? as the likelihood and x as the prior distribution (or the posterior in the previous stage) and q? (x) as the (new) posterior based on the two. The division by xT ? can be thought of as the division by the marginal to make a valid probability vector. (See Example 1 below.) We consider the following general iteration Qn (x) = q?n (T (Qn?1 (x)), Q0 (x) = x, n ? 1, (2) for some deterministic operator T : Pd ? Pd and an i.i.d. random sequence {?n }n?1 ? Rm + . By changing operator T , one obtains different iterative algorithms. Our goal is to find sufficient conditions on T and {?n } for the convergence of the iteration to an extreme point of Pd , which without loss of generality is taken to be e(0) := (1, 0, 0, . . . , 0). Standard techniques for proving the convergence of iterated random functions are usually based on showing some averaged-sense contraction property for the iteration function [4, 12, 13, 14], which in our case is q?n (T (?)). See [15] for a recent survey. These techniques are not applicable to our problem since q?n is not in general Lipschitz, in any suitable sense, precluding q?n (T (?)) from satisfying the aforementioned conditions. Instead, the functions {q?n } have another property which can be exploited to prove convergence; namely, they form a semi-group under pointwise multiplication, q?? ? ? = q? ? q? ? , ?, ? ? ? Rm +, (3) where ? denotes the composition of functions. If T is the identity, this property allows us to write Qn (x) = q? ni=1 ?i (x) ? this is nothing but the Bayesian posterior update equation, under conditionally independent sampling, while modifying T results in an approximate Bayesian inference n procedure. Since after suitable normalization, ? i=1 ?i concentrates around a deterministic quantity, by the i.i.d. assumption on {?i }, this representation helps in determining the limit of {Qn (x)}. The main result of this paper, summarized in Theorem 1, is that the same conclusions can be extended to general Lipschitz maps T having the desired fixed point. 2 3 General convergence theory d Consider a sequence {?n }n?1 ? Rm + of i.i.d. random elements, where m = 2 . Let ?n = (?n0 , ?n1 , . . . , ?nm?1 ) with ?n0 = 1 for all n, and ?n? := max i=1,2,...,m?1 ?ni . (4) The normalization ?n0 = 1 is convenient for showing convergence to e(0) . This is without loss of generality, since q? is invariant to scaling of ?, that is q? = q?? for any ? > 0. Assume the sequence {log ?n? } to be i.i.d. sub-Gaussian with mean ? ?I? < 0 and sub-Gaussian norm ? ?? ? (0, ?). The sub-Gaussian norm in can be taken to be the ?2 Orlicz norm (cf. [16, Section 2.2]), which we denote by k ? k?2 . By definition kY k?2 := inf{C > 0 : E?2 (|Y |/C) ? 1} 2 where ?2 (x) := ex ? 1. Let k ? k denote the ?1 norm on Rm . Consider the sequence {Qn (x)}n?0 defined in (2) based on {?n } as above, an initial point x = (x0 , . . . , xm?1 ) ? Pd and a Lipschitz map T : Pd ? Pd . Let LipT denote the Lipschitz constant of T , that is LipT := supx6=y kT (x) ? T (y)k/kx ? yk. Our main result regarding iteration (2) is the following. Theorem 1. Assume that L := LipT ? 1 and that e(0) is a fixed point of T . Then, for all n ? 0, and ? > 0, kQn (x) ? e(0) k ? 2 n 1 ? x0 Le?I? +? x0 (5) with probability at least 1 ? exp(?c n?2 /??2 ), for some absolute constant c > 0. The proof of Theorem 1 is outlined in Section 5. Our main application of the theorem will be to the study of convergence of stopping rules for a distributed multiple change point problem endowed with latent variable graphical models. Before stating that problem, let us consider the classical (single) change point problem first, and show how the theorem can be applied to analyze the convergence of the optimal Bayes rule. Example 1. In the classical Bayesian change point problem [1], one observes a sequence {X 1 , X 2 , X 3 . . . } of independent data points whose distributions change at some random time ?. More precisely, given ? = k, X 1 , X 2 , . . . , X k?1 are distributed according to g, and X k+1 , X k+2 , . . . according to f . Here, f and g are densities with respect to some underlying measure. One also assumes a prior ? on ?, usually taken to be geometric. The goal is to find a stopping rule ? which can predict ? based on the data points observed so far. It is well-known that a rule based on thresholding the posterior probability of ? is optimal (in a Neyman-Pearson sense). To be more specific, let Xn := (X 1 , X 2 , . . . , X n ) collect the data up to time n and let ? n [n] := P(? ? n|Xn ) be the posterior probability of ? having occurred before (or at) time n. Then, the Shiryayev rule ? := inf{n ? N : ? n [n] ? 1 ? ?} (6) is known to asymptotically have the least expected delay, among all stopping rules with false alarm probability bounded by ?. Theorem 1 provides a way to quantify how fast the posterior ? n [n] approaches 1, once the change point has occurred, hence providing an estimate of the detection delay, even for finite number of samples. We should note that our approach here is somewhat independent of the classical techniques normally used for analyzing stopping rule (6). To cast the problem in the general framework of (2), let us introduce the binary variable Z n := 1{? ? n}, where 1{?} denotes the indicator of an event. Let Qn be the (random) distribution of Z n given Xn , in other words, Qn := P(Z n = 1|Xn ), P(Z n = 0|Xn )). Since ? n [n] = P(Z = 1|Xn ), convergence of ? n [n] to 1 is equivalent to the convergence of Qn to e(0) = (1, 0). We have P (Z n |Xn ) ?Z n P (Z n , X n |Xn?1 ) = P (X n |Z n )P (Z n |Xn?1 ). 3 (7) n  ) Note that P (X n |Z n = 1) = f (X n ) and P (X n |Z n = 0) = g(X n ). Let ?n := 1, fg(X (X n ) and Rn?1 := P(Z n = 1|Xn?1 ), P(Z n = 0|Xn?1 )). Then, (7) implies that Qn can be obtained by pointwise multiplication of Rn?1 by f (X n )?n and normalization to make a probability vector. Alternatively, we can multiply by ?n , since the procedure is scale-invariant, that is, Qn = q?n (Rn?1 ) using definition (1). It remains to express Rn?1 in terms of Qn?1 . This can be done by using the Bayes rule and the fact that P (Xn?1 |? = k) is the same for k ? {n, n + 1, . . . }. In particular, after some algebra (see [17]), one arrives at ? n?1 [n] = ?(n) ?[n]c + ? n?1 [n ? 1], ?[n ? 1]c ?[n ? 1]c (8) where ? k [n] := P(? ? n|Xk ), ?(n) is the prior on ? evaluated at time n, and ?[k]c := P ? n?1 ? and i=k+1 ?(i). For the geometric prior with parameter ? ? [0, 1], we have ?(n) := (1 ? ?) c k n?1 n?1 ?[k] = ? . The above recursion then simplifies to ? [n] = ? + (1 ? ?)? [n ? 1]. Expressing in terms of Rn?1 and Qn?1 , the recursion reads 1 x   x  1 1 . =? + (1 ? ?) Rn?1 = T (Qn?1 ), where T x0 x0 0 In other words, T (x) = ?e(0) + (1 ? ?)x for x ? P2 . Thus, we have shown that an iterative algorithm for computing ? n [n] (hence determining rule (6)), can be expressed in the form of (2) for appropriate choices of {?n } and operator T . Note that T in this case is Lipschitz with constant 1 ? ? which is always guaranteed to be ? 1. We can now use Theorem 1 to analyze the convergence of ? n [n]. Let us condition on ? = k + 1, that is, we assume that the change point has occurredR at time k + 1. Then, the sequence {X n }n?k+1 is distributed according to f , and we have E?n? = f log fg = ?I, where I is the KL divergence between densities f and g. Noting that kQn ? e(0) k = 2(1 ? ? n [n]), we immediately obtain the following corollary. Corollary 1. Consider Example 1 and assume that R log(g(X)/f (X)), where X ? f , is subGaussian with sub-Gaussian norm ? ?. Let I := f log fg . Then, conditioned on ? = k + 1, we have for n ? 1,  n+k  n  1 ? ? 1 [n + k] ? 1 ? (1 ? ?)e?I+? ? k [k] with probability at least 1 ? exp(?c n?2 /? 2 ). 4 Multiple change point problem via latent variable graphical models We now turn to our main application for Theorem 1, in the context of a multiple change point problem. In [18], graphical model formalism is used to extend the classical change point problem (cf. Example 1) to cases where multiple distributed latent change points are present. Throughout this section, we will use this setup which we now briefly sketch. One starts with a network G = (V, E) of d sensors or nodes, each associated with a change point ?j . Each node j observes a private sequence of measurements Xj = (Xj1 , Xj2 , . . . ) which undergoes a change in distribution at time ?j , that is, iid Xj1 , Xj2 , . . . , Xjk?1 | ?j = k ? gj , iid Xjk , Xjk+1 , ? ? ? | ?j = k ? fj , for densities gj and fj (w.r.t. some underlying measure). Each connected pair of nodes share an additional sequence of measurements. For example, if nodes s1 and s2 are connected, that is, e = (s1 , s2 ) ? E, then they both observe Xe = (Xe1 , Xe2 , . . . ). The shared sequence undergoes a change in distribution at some point depending on ?s1 and ?s2 . More specifically, it is assumed that the earlier of the two change points causes a change in the shared sequence, that is, the distribution of Xe conditioned on (?s1 , ?s2 ) only depends on ?e := ?s1 ? ?s2 , the minimum of the two, i.e., iid iid Xe1 , Xe2 , . . . , Xek | ?e = k ? ge , Xek+1 , Xek+2 , ? ? ? | ?e = k ? fe . 4 Letting ?? := {?j }j?V and Xn? = {Xnj , Xne }j?V,e?E , we can write the joint density of all random variables as Y Y Y P (?? , Xn? ) = ?j (?j ) P (Xnj |?j ) (9) P (Xne |?s1 , ?s2 ). j?V e ?E j?V where ?j is the prior on ?j , which we assume to be geometric with parameter ?j . Network G induces a graphical model [2] which encodes the factorization (9) of the joint density. (cf. Fig. 1) Suppose now that each node j wants to detect its change point ?j , with minimum expected delay, while maintaining a false alarm probability at most ?. Inspired by the classical change point problem, one is interested in computing the posterior probability that the change point has occurred up to now, that is, ?jn [n] := P(?j ? n | Xn? ). (10) The difference with the classical setting is the conditioning is done on all the data in the network (up to time n). It is easy to verify that the natural stopping rule ?j = inf{n ? N : ?jn [n] ? 1 ? ?} satisfy the false alarm constraint. It has also been shown that this rule is asymptotically optimal in terms of expected detection delay. Moreover, an algorithm based on the well-known sum-product [2] has been proposed, which allows the nodes to compute their posterior probabilities 10 by messagepassing. The algorithm is exact when G is a tree, and scales linearly in the number of nodes. More precisely, at time n, the computational complexity is O(nd). The drawback is the linear dependence on n, which makes the algorithm practically infeasible if the change points model rare events (where n could grow large before detecting the change.) In the next section, we propose an approximate message passing algorithm which has computational complexity O(d), at each time step. This circumvents the drawback of the exact algorithm and allows for indefinite run times. We then show how the theory developed in Section 3 can be used to provide convergence guarantees for this approximate algorithm, as well as the exact one. 4.1 Fast approximate message-passing (MP) We now turn to an approximate message-passing algorithm which, at each time step, has computational complexity O(d). The derivation is similar to that used for the iterative algorithm in Example 1. Let us define binary variables Zjn = 1{?j ? n}, Z?n = (Z1n , . . . , Zdn ). (11) The idea is to compute P (Z?n |Xn? ) recursively based on P (Z?n?1 |X?n?1 ). By Bayes rule, P (Z?n |Xn? ) is proportional in Z?n to P (Z?n , X?n |X?n?1 ) = P (X?n |Z?n ) P (Z?n |X?n?1 ), hence i hY Y n P (Xij |Zin , Zjn ) P (Z?n |X?n?1 ), (12) P (Z?n |Xn? ) ?Z?n P (Xjn |Zjn ) j?V {i,j}?E Z?n , where we have used the fact that given is independent of X?n?1 . To simplify notation, let us e := E ?{{j} : j ? V }. This allows us to treat the private data of node j, i.e., extend the edge set to E e Let ue (z; ?) := [ge (?)]1?z [fe (?])z Xj , as shared data of a self-loop in the extended graph (V, E). e for e ? E, z ? {0, 1}. Then, for i 6= j, P (Xjn |Zjn ) = uj (Zjn ; Xjn ), X?n n n P (Xij |Zin , Zjn ) = uij (Zin ? Zjn ; Xij ). (13) It remains to express P (Z?n |X?n?1 ) in terms of P (Z?n?1 |X?n?1 ). It is possible to do this, exactly, at a cost of O(2|V | ). For brevity, we omit the exact expression. (See Lemma 1 for some details.) We term the algorithm that employs the exact relationship, the ?exact algorithm?. In practice, however, the exponential complexity makes the exact recursion of little use for large networks. To obtain a fast algorithm (i.e., O(poly(d)), we instead take a mean-field type approximation: Y Y P (Z?n |X?n?1 ) ? P (Zjn |X?n?1 ) = (14) ?(Zjn ; ?jn?1 [n]), j?V j?V 5 where ?(z; ?) := ? z (1 ? ?)1?z . That is, we approximate a multivariate distribution by the product of its marginals. By an argument similar to that used to derive (8), we can obtain a recursion for the marginals, ?j (n) ?j [n]c ?jn?1 [n] = + ? n?1 [n ? 1], (15) ?j [n ? 1]c ?j [n ? 1]c j where we have used the notation introduced earlier in (8). Thus, at time n, the RHS of (14) is known based on values computed at time n ? 1 (with initial value ?j0 [0] = 0, j ? V ). Inserting this RHS into (12) in place of P (Z?n |X?n?1 ), we obtain a graphical model in variables Z?n (instead of ?? ) which has the same form as (9) with ?(Zjn ; ?jn?1 [n]) playing the role of the prior ?(?j ). n In order to obtain the marginals ?jn [n] = P (Zjn = 1|Xn? ) and ?ij [n] with respect to the approximate n n n?1 version of the joint distribution P (Z? , X? |X? ), we need to marginalize out the latent variables Zjn ?s, for which a standard sum-product algorithm can be applied (see [2, 3, 18]). The message update equations are similar to those in [18]; the difference is that the messages are now binary and do not grow in size with n. 4.2 Convergence of MP algorithms We now turn to the analysis of the approximate algorithm introduced in Section 4.1. In particular, we will look at the evolution of {Pe (Z?n |Xn? )}n?N as a sequence of probability distribution on {0, 1}d. Here, Pe signifies that this sequence is an approximation. In order to make a meaningful comparison, we also look at the algorithm which computes the exact sequence {P (Z?n |Xn? )}n?N , recursively. As mentioned before, this we will call the ?exact algorithm?, the details of which are not of concern to us at this point (cf. Prop. 1 for these details.) Recall that we take Pe(Z?n |Xn? ) and P (Z?n |Xn? ), as distributions for Z?n , to be elements of Pd ? Rm . To make this correspondence formal and the notation simplified, we use the symbol :? as follows yen :? Pe(Z n |Xn ), yn :? P (Z n |Xn ) (16) ? ? ? ? where now yen , yn ? Pd . Note that yen and yn are random elements of Pd , due the randomness of Xn? . We have the following description. Proposition 1. The exact and approximate sequences, {yn } and {e yn }, follow general iteration (2) with the same random sequence {?n }, but with different deterministic operators T , denoted respectively with Tex and Tap . Tex is linear and given by a Markov transition kernel. Tap is a polynomial map of degree d. Both maps are Lipschitz and we have d d   X Y (1 ? ?j ). (17) ?j , LipTap ? K? := LipTex ? L? := 1 ? j=1 j=1 Detailed descriptions of the sequence {?n } and the operators Tex and Tap are given in [17]. As suggested by Theorem 1, a key assumption for the convergence of the approximate algorithm will be K? ? 1. In contrast, we always have L? ? 1. Recall that {?j } are the change points and their priors are geometric with parameters {?j }. We analyze the algorithms, once all the change points have happened. More precisely, we condition on Mn0 := {maxj ?j ? n0 } for some n0 ? N. Then, one expects the (joint) posterior of Z?n to contract to the point Zj? = 1, for all j ? V . In the vectorial notation, we expect both {e yn } and (0) {yn } to converge to e . Theorem 2 below quantifies this convergence in ?1 norm (equivalently, total variation for measures). Recall pre-change and post-change densities ge and fe , and let Ie denote their KL divergence, that R is, Ie := fe log(fe /ge ). We will assume that Ye := log(ge (X)/fe (X)) with X ? fe (18) e e is sub-Gaussian, for all e ? E, where E is extended edge notation introduced in Section 4.1. The choice X ? fe is in accordance with conditioning on Mn0 . Note that EYe = ?Ie < 0. We define p ?max := max kYe k?2 , Imin := min Ie , I? (?) := Imin ? ? ?max log D.. e e?E e e?E where D := |V | + |E|. Theorem 1 and Lemma 1 give us the following. (See [17] for the proof.) 6 X23 ?3 X23 ?3 ?3 X24 X45 ?1 ?1 ?2 ?2 ?4 X12 ?5 ?4 mn12 ?2 ?1 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 0.2 MP APPROX 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 ?4 mn45?5 0.4 0.2 MP APPROX mn24 X12 ?5 1 0.2 mn32 X24 X45 0.2 MP APPROX 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 MP APPROX 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Figure 1: Top row illustrates a network (left), which induces a graphical model (middle). Right panel illustrates one stage of message-passing to compute posterior probabilities ?jn [n]. Bottom row illustrates typical examples of posterior paths, n 7? ?jn [n], obtained by EXACT and approximate (APPROX) message passing, for the subgraph on nodes {1, 2, 3, 4}. The change points are designated with vertical dashed lines. Theorem 2. There exists an absolute constant ? > 0, such that if I? (?) > 0, the exact algorithm converges at least geometrically w.h.p., that is, for all n ? 1, n 1 ? yn0 (19) L? e?I? (?)+? kyn+n0 ? e(0) k ? 2 yn0   2 with probability at least 1 ? exp ?c n?2 /(?max D2 log D) , conditioned on Mn0 . If in addition, K? ? 1, the approximate algorithm also converges at least geometrically w.h.p., i.e., for all n ? 1, ke yn+n0 ? e(0) k ? 2 n 1 ? yen0 K? e?I? (?)+? yen0 (20) with the same (conditional) probability as the exact algorithm. 4.3 Simulation results We present some simulation results to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approximation algorithm in estimating the posterior probabilities ?jn [n]. We consider a star graph on d = 4 nodes. This is the subgraph on nodes {1, 2, 3, 4} in Fig. 1. Conditioned on the change points ?? , all data sequences X? are assumed Gaussian with variance 1, pre-change mean 1 and post-change mean zero. All priors are geometric with ?j = 0.1. We note that higher values of ?j yield even faster convergence in the simulations, but we omit these figures due to space constraints. Fig. 1 illustrates typical examples of posterior paths n 7? ?jn [n], for both the exact and approximate MP algorithms. One can observe that the approximate path often closely follows the exact one. In some cases, they might deviate for a while, but as suggested by Theorem 2, they approach one another quickly, once the change points have occurred. From the theorem and triangle inequality, it follows that under I? (?) > 0 and K? ? 1, kyn ? yen k converges to zero, at least geometrically w.h.p. This gives some theoretical explanation for the good tracking behavior of approximate algorithm as observed in Fig. 1. 5 Proof of Theorem 1 For x ? Rm (including Pd ), we write x = (x0 , x e) where x e = (x1 , . . . , xm?1 ). Recall that e(0) = Pm?1 (1, 0, . . . , 0) and kxk = i=0 |xi |. For x ? Pd , we have 1 ? x0 = ke xk, and kx ? e(0) k = k(x0 ? 1, x e)k = 1 ? x0 + ke xk = 2(1 ? x0 ). e ? Rm , let For ? = (? 0 , ?) + e ?= ? ? := k?k max i=1,...,m?1  ? ? := ? 0 , (? ? L)1m?1 ? Rm + ?i, 7 (21) (22) where 1m?1 is a vector in Rm?1 whose coordinates are all ones. We start by investigating how kq? (x) ? e(0) k varies as a function of kx ? e(0) k. Lemma 1. For L ? 1, ? ? > 0, and ? 0 = 1, N := sup x,y ? Pd , kx?e k ? Lky?e(0) k kq? (x) ? e(0) k = 1; kq? ? (y) ? e(0) k (23) (0) Lemma 1 is proved in [17]. We now proceed to the proof of the theorem. Recall that T : Pd ? Pd is an L-Lipschitz map, and that e(0) is a fixed point of T , that is, T (e(0) ) = e(0) . It follows that for any x ? Pd , kT (x) ? e(0) k ? Lkx ? e(0) k. Applying Lemma 1, we get kq? (T (x)) ? e(0) k ? kq? ? (x) ? e(0) k (24) 0 ? for ? ? Rm + with ? = 1, and x ? Pd . (This holds even if ? = 0 where both sides are zero.) Recall the sequence {?n }n?1 used in defining functions {Qn } accroding to (2), and the assumption that ?n0 = 1, for all n ? 1. Inequality (24) is key in allowing us to peel operator T , and bring successive elements of {q?n } together. Then, we can exploit the semi-group property (3) on adjacent elements of {q?n }. To see this, for each ?n , let ?n? and ?n? be defined as in (22). Applying (24) with x replaced with Qn?1 (x), and ? with ?n , we can write kQn (x) ? e(0) k ? kq?n? (Qn?1 (x)) ? e(0) k (by (24)) = kq?n? (q?n?1 (T (Qn?2 (x)))) ? e(0) k = kq?n? ? ?n?1 (T (Qn?2 (x)))) ? e(0) k (by semi-group property (3)) ? We note that (?n? ? ?n?1 )? = L?n? ?n?1 and   ? ? 1m?1 . (?n? ? ?n?1 ) = 1, L(?n? ? ?n?1 )? 1m?1 = 1, L2 ?n? ?n?1 Here, ? and ? act on a general vector in the sense of (22). Applying (24) once more, we get (0) ? kQn (x) ? e(0) k ? kq(1,L2 ?n? ?n?1 k. 1m?1 ) (Qn?2 (x)) ? e Q n The pattern is clear. Letting ?n := Ln k=1 ?k? , we obtain by induction kQn (x) ? e(0) k ? kq(1,?n 1m?1 ) (Q0 (x)) ? e(0) k. (25) Recall that Q0 (x) := x. Moreover,   kq(1,?n 1m?1 ) (x) ? e(0) k = 2 1 ? [q(1,?n 1m?1 ) (x)]0 = 2 1 ? g?n (x0 ) (26) where the first inequality is by (21), and the second is easily verified by noting that all the elements of (1, ?n 1m?1 ), except the first, are equal. Putting (25) and (26) together with the bound 1?g? (r) = 0 ?(1?r) 1?r (0) k ? 2?n 1?x r+?(1?r) ? ? r , which holds for ? > 0 and r ? (0, 1], we obtain kQn (x) ? e x0 . By sub-Gaussianity assumption on {log ?k? }, we have P n 1 X n  log ?k? ? E log ?1? > ? ? exp(?c n?2 /??2 ), (27) k=1 for some absolute constant c > 0. (Recall that ?? is an upper on the sub-Gaussian norm Qbound n k log ?1? k?2 .) On the complement of the event in 27, we have k=1 ?k? ? en(?I? +?) , which completes the proof. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by NSF grants CCF-1115769 and OCI-1047871. 8 References [1] A. N. Shiryayev. Optimal Stopping Rules. Springer-Verlag, 1978. [2] J. Pearl. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. Morgan Kaufmann, 1988. [3] M. I. Jordan. Graphical models. Statistical Science, 19:140?155, 2004. [4] P. Diaconis and D. Freedman. Iterated random functions. SIAM Rev., 41(1):45?76, 1999. [5] O. P. Kreidl and A. Willsky. Inference with minimum communication: a decision-theoretic variational approach. In NIPS, 2007. [6] M. Cetin, L. Chen, J. W. Fisher III, A. Ihler, R. Moses, M. Wainwright, and A. Willsky. Distributed fusion in sensor networks: A graphical models perspective. IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, July:42?55, 2006. [7] X. Nguyen, A. A. Amini, and R. Rajagopal. Message-passing sequential detection of multiple change points in networks. In ISIT, 2012. [8] A. Frank, P. Smyth, and A. Ihler. A graphical model representation of the track-oriented multiple hypothesis tracker. In Proceedings, IEEE Statistical Signal Processing (SSP). August 2012. [9] A. T. Ihler, J. W. Fisher III, and A. S. Willsky. Loopy belief propagation: Convergence and effects of message errors. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:905?936, May 2005. [10] Alexander Ihler. Accuracy bounds for belief propagation. In Proceedings of UAI 2007, July 2007. [11] T. G. Roosta, M. Wainwright, and S. S. Sastry. Convergence analysis of reweighted sumproduct algorithms. IEEE Trans. Signal Processing, 56(9):4293?4305, 2008. [12] D. Steinsaltz. Locally contractive iterated function systems. Ann. Probab., 27(4):1952?1979, 1999. [13] W. B. Wu and M. Woodroofe. A central limit theorem for iterated random functions. J . Appl. Probab., 37(3):748?755, 2000. [14] W. B. Wu and X. Shao. Limit theorems for iterated random functions.. :. J. Appl. Probab., 41(2):425?436, 2004. ? Stenflo. A survey of average contractive iterated function systems. J. Diff. Equa. and Appl., [15] O. 18(8):1355?1380, 2012. [16] A. van der Vaart and J. Wellner. Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes: With Applications to Statistics. Springer, 1996. [17] A. A. Amini and X. Nguyen. Bayesian inference as iterated random functions with applications to sequential inference in graphical models. arXiv preprint. [18] A. A. Amini and X. Nguyen. Sequential detection of multiple change points in networks: a graphical model approach. 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Optimizing Instructional Policies Robert V. Lindsey? , Michael C. Mozer? , William J. Huggins? , Harold Pashler? ? Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder ? Department of Psychology, University of California, San Diego Abstract Psychologists are interested in developing instructional policies that boost student learning. An instructional policy specifies the manner and content of instruction. For example, in the domain of concept learning, a policy might specify the nature of exemplars chosen over a training sequence. Traditional psychological studies compare several hand-selected policies, e.g., contrasting a policy that selects only difficult-to-classify exemplars with a policy that gradually progresses over the training sequence from easy exemplars to more difficult (known as fading). We propose an alternative to the traditional methodology in which we define a parameterized space of policies and search this space to identify the optimal policy. For example, in concept learning, policies might be described by a fading function that specifies exemplar difficulty over time. We propose an experimental technique for searching policy spaces using Gaussian process surrogate-based optimization and a generative model of student performance. Instead of evaluating a few experimental conditions each with many human subjects, as the traditional methodology does, our technique evaluates many experimental conditions each with a few subjects. Even though individual subjects provide only a noisy estimate of the population mean, the optimization method allows us to determine the shape of the policy space and to identify the global optimum, and is as efficient in its subject budget as a traditional A-B comparison. We evaluate the method via two behavioral studies, and suggest that the method has broad applicability to optimization problems involving humans outside the educational arena. 1 Introduction What makes a teacher effective? A critical factor is their instructional policy, which specifies the manner and content of instruction. Electronic tutoring systems have been constructed that implement domain-specific instructional policies (e.g., J. R. Anderson, Conrad, & Corbett, 1989; Koedinger & Corbett, 2006; Martin & VanLehn, 1995). A tutoring system decides at every point in a session whether to present some new material, provide a detailed example to illustrate a concept, pose new problems or questions, or lead the student step-by-step to discover an answer. Prior efforts have focused on higher cognitive domains (e.g., algebra) in which policies result from an expert-systems approach involving careful handcrafted analysis and design followed by iterative evaluation and refinement. As a complement to these efforts, we are interested in addressing fundamental questions in the design of instructional policies that pertain to basic cognitive skills. Consider a concrete example: training individuals to discriminate between two perceptual or conceptual categories, such as determining whether mammogram x-ray images are negative or positive for an abnormality. In training from examples, should the instructor tend to alternate between categories?as in pnpnpnpn for positive and negative examples?or present a series of instances from the same category?ppppnnnn (Goldstone & Steyvers, 1 2001)? Both of these strategies?interleaving and blocking, respectively?are adopted by human instructors (Khan, Zhu, & Mutlu, 2011). Reliable advantages between strategies has been observed (Kang & Pashler, 2011; Kornell & Bjork, 2008) and factors influencing the relative effectiveness of each have been explored (Carvalho & Goldstone, 2011). Empirical evaluation of blocking and interleaving policies involves training a set of human subjects with a fixed-length sequence of exemplars drawn from one policy or the other. During training, exemplars are presented one at a time, and typically subjects are asked to guess the category label associated with the exemplar, after which they are told the correct label. Following training, mean classification accuracy is evaluated over a set of test exemplars. Such an experiment yields an intrinsically noisy evaluation of the two policies, limited by the number of subjects and inter-individual variability. Consequently, the goal of a typical psychological experiment is to find a statistically reliable difference between the training conditions, allowing the experimenter to conclude that one policy is superior. Blocking and interleaving are but two points in a space of policies that could be parameterized by the probability, ?, that the exemplar presented on trial t + 1 is drawn from the same category as the exemplar on trial t. Blocking and interleaving correspond to ? near 1 and 0, respectively. (There are many more interesting ways of constructing a policy space that includes blocking and interleaving, e.g., ? might vary with t or with a student?s running-average classification accuracy, but we will use the simple fixed-? policy space for illustration.) Although one would ideally like to explore the policy space exhaustively, limits on the availability of experimental subjects and laboratory resources make it challenging to conduct studies evaluating more than a few candidate policies to the degree necessary to obtain statistically significant differences. 2 Optimizing an instructional policy Our goal is to discover the optimum in policy space?the policy that maximizes mean accuracy or another measure of performance over a population of students. (We focus on optimizing for a population but later discuss how our approach might be used to address individual differences.) Our challenge is performing optimization on a budget: each subject tested imposes a time or financial cost. Evaluating a single policy with a degree of certainty requires testing many subjects to reduce sampling variance due to individual differences, factors outside of experimental control (e.g., alertness), and imprecise measurement obtained from brief evaluations and discrete (e.g., correct or incorrect) responses. Consequently, exhaustive search over the set of distinguishable policies is not feasible. Past research on optimal teaching (Chi, VanLehn, Litman, & Jordan, 2011; Rafferty, Brunskill, Griffiths, & Shafto, 2011; Whitehill & Movellan, 2010) has investigated reinforcement learning and POMDP approaches. These approaches are intriguing but are not typically touted for their data efficiency. To avoid exceeding a subject budget, the flexibility of the POMDP framework demands additional bias, imposed via restrictions on the class of candidate policies and strong assumptions about the learner. The approach we will propose likewise requires specification of a constrained policy space, but does not make assumptions about the internal state of the learner or the temporal dynamics of learning. In contrast to POMDP approaches, the cognitive agnosticism of our approach allows it to be readily applied to arbitrary policy optimization problems. Direct optimization methods that accommodate noisy function evaluations have also been proposed, but experimentation with one such technique (E. J. Anderson & Ferris, 2001) convinced us that the method we propose here is orders of magnitude more efficient in its required subject budget. Neither POMDP nor direct-optimization approaches models the policy space explicitly. In contrast, we propose an approach based on function approximation. From a functionapproximation perspective, the goal is to determine the shape and optimum of the function that maps policies to performance?call this the policy performance function or PPF. What sort of experimental design should be used to approximate the PPF? Traditional experimental design?which aims to show a statistically reliable difference between two alternative policies?requires testing many subjects for each policy. However, if our goal is to determine the shape of the PPF, we may get better value from data collection by evaluating a large 2 Performance 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Instructional Policy 0 Figure 1: A hypothetical 1D instructional policy space. The solid black line represents an (unknown) policy performance function. The grey disks indicate the noisy outcome of singlesubject experiments conducted at specified points in policy space. (The diameter of the disk represents the number of data points occuring at the disk?s location.) The dashed black line depicts the GP posterior mean, and the coloring of each vertical strip represents the cumulative density function for the posterior. number of points in policy space each with few subjects instead of a small number of points each with many subjects. This possibility suggests a new paradigm for experimental design in psychological science. Our vision is a completely automated system that selects points in policy space to evaluate, runs an experiment?an evaluation of some policy with one or a small number of subjects?and repeats until a budget for data collection is exhausted. 2.1 Surrogate-based optimization using Gaussian process regression In surrogate-based optimization (e.g., Forrester & Keane, 2009), experimental observations serve to constrain a surrogate model that approximates the function being optimized. This surrogate is used both to select additional experiments to run and to estimate the optimum. Gaussian process regression (GPR) has long been used as the surrogate for solving low-dimensional stochastic optimization problems in engineering fields (Forrester & Keane, 2009; Sacks, Welch, Mitchell, & Wynn, 1989). Like other Bayesian models, GPR makes efficient use of limited data, which is particularly critical to us because our budget is expressed in terms of the number of subjects required. Further, GPR provides a principled approach to handling measurement uncertainty, which is a problem any experimental context but is particularly striking in human experimentation due to the range of factors influencing performance. The primary constraint imposed by the Gaussian Process prior?that of function smoothness?can readily be ensured with the appropriate design of policy spaces. To illustrate GPR in surrogate-based optimization, Figure 1 depicts a hypothetical 1D instructional policy space, along with the true PPF and the GPR posterior conditioned on the outcome of a set of single-subject experiments at various points in policy space. 2.2 Generative model of student performance Each instructional policy is presumed to have an inherent effectiveness for a population of individuals. However, a policy?s effectiveness can be observed only indirectly through measurements of subject performance such as the number of correct responses. To determine the most effective policy from noisy observations, we must specify a generative model of student performance which relates the inherent effectiveness of instruction to observed performance. Formally, each subject s is trained under a policy xs and then tested to evaluate their performance. We posit that each training policy x has a latent population-wide effectiveness fx ? R and that how well a subject performs on the test is a noisy function of fxs . We are interested in predicting the effectiveness of a policy x0 across a population of students given the observed test scores of S subjects trained under the policies x1:S . Conceptually, this involves first inferring the effectiveness f of policies x1:S from the noisy test data, then interpolating from f to fx0 . Using a standard Bayesian nonparametric approach, we place a mean-zero Gaussian Process prior over the function fx . For the finite set of S observations, this corresponds to the multivariate normal distribution f ? MVN(0, ?), where ? is a covariance matrix prescribing how smoothly varying we expect f to be across policies. We use the squared-exponential 2 s0 || covariance function, so that ?s,s0 = ? 2 exp(? ||xs ?x ), and ? 2 and ` as free parameters. 2`2 Having specified a prior over policy effectiveness, we turn to specifying a distribution over observable measures of subject learning conditioned on effectiveness. In this paper, we measure learning by administering a multiple-choice test to each subject s and observing 3 the number of correct responses s made, cs , out of ns questions. We assume the probability that subject s answers any question correctly is a random variable ?s whose expected value is related to the policy?s effectiveness via the logistic transform: E [?s ] = logistic(o + fxs ) where o is a constant. This is consistent with the observation model ?s | fxs , o, ? ? Beta(?, ?e?(o+fxs ) ) cs | ?s ? Binomial(g + (1 ? g)?s ; ns ) (1) where ? controls inter-subject variability in ?s and g is the probability of answering a question correctly by random guessing. In this paper, we assume g = .5. For this special case, the analytic marginalization over ?s yields  X cs   ns cs B(? + i, ns ? cs + ?e?(o+fxs ) ) P (cs | fxs , ?, o, g = .5) = 2?ns (2) cs i=0 i B(?, ?e?(o+fxs ) ) where B(a, b) = ?(a)?(b)/?(a + b) is the beta function.  Parameters ? ? ?, o, ? 2 , ` are given vague uniform priors. The effectiveness of a policy x0 PM 1 (m) 0 , ? (m) ), where p(fx0 | f (m) , ? (m) ) is Gaussian is estimated via p(fx0 | c) ? M m=1 p(fx | f with mean and variance determined by the mth sample from the posterior p(f , ? | c). Posterior samples are drawn via elliptical slice sampling, a technique well-suited for models with highly correlated latent Gaussian variables (Murray, Adams, & MacKay, 2010). We have also explored a more general framework that relaxes the relationship between chance-guessing and test performance and allows for multiple policies to be evaluated per subject. With regard to the latter, subjects may undergo multiple randomly ordered blocks of trials where in each block b a subject s is trained under a policy fxbs and then tested. The observation model is altered so that the score in a block is given by cbs ? Binomial(?bs ; nbs ) where ?bs ? logistic(o0 + ?s + fxbs ), the factor ?s ? Normal(0, ???1 ) represents the ability of subject s across blocks, and the constant o0 subsumes the role of o and g from the original model. In the spirit of item-response theory (Boeck & Wilson, 2004), the model could be extended further to include factors that represent the difficulty of individual test questions and interactions between subject ability and question difficulty. 2.3 Active selection GP optimization requires a strategy for actively selecting the next experiment. (We refer to this as a ?strategy? instead of as a ?policy? to avoid confusion with instructional policies.) Many heuristic strategies have been proposed (Forrester & Keane, 2009), including: grid sampling over the policy space; expanding or contracting a trust region; and goal-setting approaches that identify regions of policy space where performance is likely to attain some target level or beat out the current best experiment result. In addition, greedy versus k-step predictive planning has been considered (Osborne, Garnett, & Roberts, 2009). Every strategy faces an exploration/exploitation trade off. Exploration involves searching regions of the function with the maximum uncertainty; exploitation involves concentrating on the regions of the function that currently appear to be most promising. Each has a cost. A focus on exploration rapidly exhausts the subject budget for subjects. A focus on exploitation leads to selection of local optima. The upper-confidence bound (UCB) strategy (Forrester & Keane, 2009; Srinivas, Krause, Kakade, & Seeger, 2010) attempts to avoid these two costs by starting in an exploratory mode and shifting to exploitation. This strategy chooses the most-promising experiment from an upper-confidence bound on the GPR: xt = argmaxx ? ?t?1 (x) + ?t ? ?t?1 (x), where t is a time index, ? ? and ? ? are the mean and standard deviation of the GPR, and ?t controls the exploration/exploitation trade off. Large ?t focus on regions with the greatest uncertainty, but as ?t ? 0, the focus shifts to exploitation in the neighborhood of the current best policy. Annealing ?t as a function of t will yield exploration initially shifting toward exploitation. We adapt the UCB strategy by transforming the UCB based on the GPR to an expression based on the the population accuracy (proportion correct) via xt = argmaxx P ( ncss > ?t | fx ), where ?t is an accuracy level determining the exploration/exploitation trade off. In simulations, we found that setting ?t = .999 was effective. Note that in applying the UCB selection 4 (b) relative distance to category boundary (a) Figure 2: (a) Experiment 1 training display; (b) Selected Experiment near 2 stimuli 5 and 10 their 15 training trial (b) graspability ratings (a) 80 70 60 750 1000 25 the PPF with 100 subjects. Light grey squares with error bars indicate the results red line 50 depicts the GP posterior mean, ?(x) for policy x, and the pink shading is ?2?(x), a traditional comparison where 40?(x) is the GP posterior standardofdeviation. among conditions. (b) Pre30 GP optimization requires a strategy for selecting the next experiment. (We refer to this diction of optimum presenta- policies.) Many 20 as a ?strategy? instead of a ?policy? to avoid confusion with instructional tion duration as2009), moreincluding: sub- grid sampling heuristic & Keane, 10 strategies have been proposed (Forrester over the policy space; expanding or contracting a trust and line goal-setting approaches jects are run;region; dashed is 250 500 750 1000 2000 3000 5000 5000 Estimated Optimal of Duration (Logspace Scale) where that identify regions policy performance is likely to attain some target level asymptotic value. Subject Number % Correct 90 500 20 Figure 2: (a) Some (b) objects and their graspability ratings: 1 means not graspable and 5 means100highly graspable; choosing the category of training examplars over a sequence of Figure 3: Experiment 1 retrials; 90(b) Examples of fading policies drawn 1D fading policy of space used in our sults.from (a) the Posterior density study 80 (a) 100 50 250 far 2000 3000 Duration (Log Scale) 70 60 or beat out the current best experiment result. In addition, greedy versus k-step predictive planning has been considered (Osborne, Garnett, & Roberts, 2009). Every strategy faces an exploration/exploitation o?. uniform Exploration involves searching strategy, we must search over a set of candidate policies. We appliedtrade a fine grid regions of the function with the maximum uncertainty; exploitation involves concentrating search over policy space to perform this selection. 3 on the regions of the function that currently appear to be most promising. Each has a cost. A focus on exploration rapidly exhausts the budget for participants. A focus on exploitation leads to selection of local optima. Experiment 1: Optimizing presentation rate The upper-confidence bound (UCB) strategy (Forrester & Keane, 2009; Srinivas, Krause, Kakade, & Seeger, 2010) attempts to avoid these two costs by starting in an exploratory de Jonge, Tabbers, Pecher, mode and Zeelenberg studied the of chooses presentation rate on and shifting (2012) to exploitation. Thiseffect strategy the most-promising experiment word-pair learning. During from training, each pair wasbound viewed total of 16 sec. Viewing was an upper-confidence on for the afunction divided into 16/d trials each with a duration of d sec, where d ranged from 1 sec (viewing the = argmax ?t?1 (x)that + ?t ?an t?1 (x), pair 16 times) to 16 sec (viewing the pair once). dextJong et al. intermediate x found duration yielded better cued recall performance both immediately and following a delay. where t is an index over time and ?t controls the exploration/exploitation trade o?. Large ?t focus on regions with the greatest uncertainty, but asto?tlearn ? 0, the shifts to exploitation We explored a variant of this experiment in which subjects were asked thefocus favorite in the neighborhood of the current best policy. Annealing ? as a function t sporting team of six individuals. During training, each individual?s face was shown along of t will yield exploration initially shifting toward exploitation. with their favorite team?either Jets or Sharks (Figure 2a). The training policy specifies the duration d of each face-team pair. Training was over a 30 second period, with a total of 3 5/d Experimental 30/d trials and an average of presentations task per face-team pair. Presentation sequences were blocked, where a block consists of all six individuals in random order. Immediately testtested our approach to optimization of instructional policies, use awere challenging problem following training, subjects To were on each of the six faces in random orderweand in the domain concept or category learning. Salmon, and Filliter (2010) asked to select the corresponding team. ofThe training/testing procedure was McMullen, repeated for have obtained rating norms for a set of 320 objects in terms of their graspability, i.e., how eight rounds each using different faces. In total, each subject responded to 48 faces. The manipulable an object is according to how easy it is to grasp and use the object with one faces were balanced across ethnicity, and (provided Minear Park, 2004). hand. Theyage, polled 57gender individuals, each of by whom rated & each of the objects multiple times a 1?5 scale, where 1 means not graspable and 5 means highly graspable. Figure 2a Using Mechanical Turk, we using recruited 100 subjects who were paid $0.30 for their participashows several objects and their ratings. tion. The policy space was defined to be in the logarithm of the duration, i.e., d = ex , where We included divided theonly objects into of twoxgroups by their mean rating, with the group x ? [ln(.25) ln(5)]. The space values such that 30/d is an integer; i.e.,not-glopnor we having ratings in [1, 2.75] and the glopnor group having ratings in [3.25, 5]. (We discarded ensured that no trials were cut short by the 30 second time limit. Subject 1?s training policy, objects with ratings in [2.75, 3.25]). Our goal was to teach the concept of glopnor, using x1 , was set to the median of rangeinstructions: of admissable values (857 ms). After each subject thethe following t completed the experiment, the PPF posterior was reestimated, and the upper-confidence bound strategy was used to select the policy for subject t + 1, xt+1 . 4 Figure 3a shows the PPF posterior based on 100 subjects. (We include a movie showing the evolution of the PPF over subjects in the Supplementary Materials.) The diameter of the grey disks indicate the number of data points observed at that location in the space. The optimum of the PPF mean is at 1.15 sec, at which duration each face-team pair will be shown on expectation 4.33 times during training. Though the result seems intuitive, we?ve polled colleagues, and predictions for the peak ranged from below 1 sec to 2.5 sec. Figure 3b uses the PPF mean to estimate the optimum duration, and this duration is plotted against 5 near repetition probability relative distance to category boundary far 5 10 15 20 1 0.5 25 0 5 training trial (b) 10 15 training trial Some objects and their graspability ratings: 1 means not graspable and 5 graspable; choosing the category of training examplars over a sequence of thethe number of policy subjects. Ourinprocedure mples of fading policies drawn from 1D fading space used our 20 25 Figure 4: Expt. 2, trial dependent fading and repetition policies (left and right, respectively). Colored lines represent specific policies. yields an estimate for the optimum duration that is quite stable after about 40 subjects. Ideally, one would like to compare the PPF posterior to ground truth. However, obtaining s the GP posterior mean, ?(x) forground policy x, truth and therequires pink shading is ?2?(x), data collection effort. As an alternative, we contrast our a massive the GP posterior standard deviation. result with a more traditional experimental study based on the same number of subjects. on requires a strategy for selecting next100 experiment. (We subjects refer to thisin a standard experimental design involving evaluation of Wetheran additional instead of a ?policy? to avoid confusion with instructional policies.) Many five alternative policies, d ? {1, 1.25, 1.667, 2.5, 5}, 20 subjects per policy. (These durations gies have been proposed (Forrester & Keane, 2009), including: grid sampling presentations of each face-team pair during training.) The mean score for space; expanding or contractingcorrespond a trust region; to and1-5 goal-setting approaches egions of policy space where performance is likelyistoplotted attain some level3a as light grey squares with bars indicating ?2 standard each policy in target Figure current best experiment result. errors In addition, greedy versus The k-stepresult predictive of the mean. of the traditional experiment is coarsely consistent with the een considered (Osborne, Garnett, & Roberts, 2009). PPF posterior, but the budget of 100 subjects places a limitation on the interpretability faces an exploration/exploitation trade o?. Exploration involves searching of the results. When matched on budget, the optimization procedure appears to produce unction with the maximum uncertainty; exploitation involves concentrating results more Each interpretable of the function that currently appear to bethat most are promising. has a cost. and less sensitive to noise in the data. Note that we have loration rapidly exhausts the budget for participants. A focus on exploitation biased this comparison in favor of the traditional design by restricting the exploration of on of local optima. the policy space to the region 1 sec ? d ? 5 sec. Nonetheless, no clear pattern emerges in fidence bound (UCB) strategy (Forrester & Keane, Srinivas, the shape of the2009; PPF basedKrause, on the ger, 2010) attempts to avoid these two costs by starting in an exploratory ting to exploitation. This strategy chooses the most-promising experiment -confidence bound on the function 4 outcome of the traditional design. Experiment 2: Optimizing training example sequence xt = argmaxx ?t?1 (x) + ?t ?t?1 (x), dex over time and ?t controls the In exploration/exploitation o?. Large ?t learning from examples. Subjects are told that martians Experiment 2, wetrade study concept s with the greatest uncertainty, but as ?t ? 0, the focus shifts to exploitation teach?tthem the meaning of a martian adjective, glopnor, by presenting a series of rhood of the current best policy.will Annealing as a function of t will yield example objects, some of which have the property glopnor and others do not. During a tially shifting toward exploitation. training phase, objects are presented one at a time and subjects must classify the object as glopnor or not-glopnor. They then receive feedback as to the correctness of their mental task response. On each trial, the object from the previous trial is shown in the corner of the display along with its correct classification, the reason for which is to facilitate comparison proach to optimization of instructional policies, we use a challenging problem of concept or category learning. Salmon, McMullen, Filliter (2010) and contrasting ofand objects. Following 25 training trials, 24 test trials are administered in rating norms for a set of 320 objects in terms of their graspability, i.e., how makes classification but receives no feedback. The training and test n object is according to how easywhich it is to the graspsubject and use the object awith one trials balanced number of positive and negative examples. olled 57 individuals, each of whom ratedare eachroughly of the objects multipleintimes ale, where 1 means not graspable and 5 means highly graspable. Figure 2a The stimuli in this experiment are objects and their ratings. drawn from a set of 320 objects normed by Salmon, andtheFilliter (2010) for graspability, i.e., how manipulable an object is according objects into two groups by their McMullen, mean rating, with not-glopnor group in [1, 2.75] and the glopnor group in [3.25, (We discarded tohaving how ratings easy it is to5].grasp and use the object with one hand. They polled 57 individuals, atings in [2.75, 3.25]). Our goal was to teach the concept of glopnor, each of whom rated each of using the objects multiple times using a 1?5 scale, where 1 means nstructions: 4 not graspable and 5 means highly graspable. Figure 2b shows several objects and their ratings. We divided the objects into two groups by their mean rating, with the notglopnor group having ratings in [1, 2.75] and the glopnor group having ratings in [3.25, 5]. (We discarded objects with ratings in [2.75, 3.25] because they are too difficult even if one knows the concept). The classification task is easy if one knows that the concept is graspability. However, the challenge of inferring the concept is extremely difficult because there are many dimensions along which these objects vary and any one?or more?could be the classification dimension(s). We defined an instructional policy space characterized by two dimensions: fading and blocking. Fading refers to the notion from the animal learning literature that learning is facilitated by presenting exemplars far from the category boundary initially, and gradually transitioning toward more difficult exemplars over time. Exemplars far from the boundary may help individuals to attend to the dimension of interest; exemplars near the boundary may help individuals determine where the boundary lies (Pashler & Mozer, in press). Theorists have 6 also made computational arguments for the benefit of fading (Bengio, Louradour, Collobert, & Weston, 2009; Khan et al., 2011). Blocking refers to the issue discussed in the Introduction concerning the sequence of category labels: Should training exemplars be blocked or interleaved? That is, should the category label on one trial tend to be the same as or different than the label on the previous trial? For fading, we considered a family of trial-dependent functions that specify the distance of the chosen exemplar to the category boundary (left panel of Figure 4). This family is parameterized by a single policy variable x2 , 0 ? x2 ? 1 that relates to the distance of an exemplar to the category boundary, d, as follows: d(t, x2 ) = min(1, 2x2 )?(1?|2x2 ?1|) Tt?1 ?1 , where T is the total number of training trials and t is the current trial. For blocking, we also considered a family of trial-dependent functions that vary the probability of a category label repetition over trials (right panel of Figure 4). This family is parameterized by the policy variable x1 , 0 ? x1 ? 1, that relates to the probability of repeating the category label of the previous trial, r, as follows: r(t, x1 ) = x1 + (1 ? 2x1 ) Tt?1 ?1 . Figure 5a provides a visualization of sample training trial sequences for different points in the 2D policy space. Each graph represents an instance of a specific (probabilistic) policy. The abscissa of each graph is an index over the 25 training trials; the ordinate represents the category label and its distance from the category boundary. Policies in the top and bottom rows show sequences of all-easy and all-hard examples, respectively; intermediate rows achieve fading in various forms. Policies in the leftmost column begin training with many repetitions and end training with many alternations; policies in the rightmost column begin with alternations and end with repetitions; policies in the middle column have a time-invariant repetition probability of 0.5. Regardless of the training sequence, the set of test objects was the same for all subjects. The test objects spanned the spectrum of distances from the category boundary. During test, subjects were required to make a forced choice glopnor/not-glopnor judgment. We seeded the optimization process by running 10 subjects in each of four corners of policy space as well as in the center point of the space. We then ran 150 additional subjects using GP-based optimization. Figure 5 shows the PPF posterior mean over the 2D policy space, along with the selection in policy space of the 200 subjects. Contour map colors indicate the expected accuracy of the corresponding policy (in contrast to the earlier colored graphs in which the coloring indicates the cdf). The optimal policy is located at x? = (1, .66). To validate the outcome of this exploration, we ran 50 subjects at x? as well as policies in the upper corners and the center of Figure 5. Consistent with the prediction of the PPF posterior, mean accuracy at x? is 68.6%, compared to 60.9% for (0, 1), 65.7% for (1, 0), and 66.6% for (.5, .5). Unfortunately, only one of the paired comparisons was statistically reliable by a two-tailed Bonferroni corrected t-test: (0, 1) versus x? (p = .027). However, post-hoc power computation revealed that with 50 subjects and the variability inherent in the data, the odds of observing a reliable 2% difference in the mean is only .10. Running an additional 50 subjects would raise the power to only .17. Thus, although we did not observe a statistically significant improvement at the inferred optimum compared to sensible alternative policies, the results are consistent with our inferred optimum being an improvement over the type of policies one might have proposed a priori. 5 Discussion The traditional experimental paradigm in psychology involves comparing a few alternative conditions by testing a large number of subjects in each condition. We?ve described a novel paradigm in which a large number of conditions are evaluated, each with only one or a few subjects. Our approach achieves an understanding of the functional relationship between conditions and performance, and it lends itself to discovering the conditions that attain optimal performance. We?ve focused on the problem of optimizing instruction, but the method described here has broad applicability across issues in the behavioral sciences. For example, one might attempt to maximize a worker?s motivation by manipulating rewards, task difficulty, or time pressure. 7 + + + + + ? ? ? ? ? + + + + + ? ? ? ? ? + + + + + ? ? ? ? ? + + + + + ? ? ? ? ? 66% Fading Policy Fading Policy Fading Policy 64% 62% 60% 58% + + + + + ? ? ? ? ? 56% Blocking Policy Repetition/Alternation Policy Blocking Policy Figure 5: Experiment 2 (a) policy space and (b) policy performance function at 200 subjects Motivation might be studied in an experimental context with voluntary time on task as a measure of intrinsic interest level. Consider problems in a quite different domain, human vision. Optimization approaches might be used to determine optimal color combinations in a manner more efficient and feasible than exhaustive search (Schloss & Palmer, 2011). Also in the vision domain, one might search for optimal sequences and parameterizations of image transformations that would support complex visual tasks performed by experts (e.g., x-ray mammography screening) or ordinary visual tasks performed by the visually impaired. From a more applied angle, A-B testing has become an extremely popular technique for fine tuning web site layout, marketing, and sales (Christian, 2012). With a large web population, two competing alternatives can quickly be evaluated. Our approach offers a more systematic alternative in which a space of alternatives can be explored efficiently, leading to discovery of solutions that might not have been conceived of as candidates a priori. The present work did not address individual differences or high-dimensional policy spaces, but our framework can readily be extended. Individual differences can be accommodated via policies that are parameterized by individual variables (e.g., age, education level, performance on related tasks, recent performance on the present task). For example, one might adopt a fading policy in which the rate of fading depends in a parametric manner on a running average of performance. High dimensional spaces are in principle no challenge for GPR given a sensible distance metric. The challenge of high-dimensional spaces comes primarily from computational overhead in selecting the next policy to evaluate. However, this computational burden can be greatly relaxed by switching from a global optimization perspective to a local perspective: instead of considering candidate policies in the entire space, active selection might consider only policies in the neighborhood of previously explored policies. Acknowledgments This research was supported by NSF grants BCS-0339103 and BCS-720375 and by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship to R. L. We thank Ron Kneusel and Ali Alzabarah for their invaluable assistance with IT support, and Ponesadat Mortazavi, Vanja Dukic, and Rosie Cowell for helpful discussions and advice on this work. References Anderson, E. J., & Ferris, M. C. (2001). A direct search algorithm for optimization with noisy function evaluations. SIAM Journal of Optimization, 11 , 837?857. 8 Anderson, J. R., Conrad, F. G., & Corbett, A. T. (1989). Skill acquisition and the LISP tutor. Cognitive Science, 13 , 467?506. Bengio, Y., Louradour, J., Collobert, R., & Weston, J. (2009, June). Curriculum learning. In L. Bottou & M. Littman (Eds.), Proceedings of the 26th international conference on machine learning (pp. 41?48). Montreal: Omnipress. Boeck, P. D., & Wilson, M. (2004). Explanatory item response models. a generalized linear and nonlinear approach. New York: Springer. 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Linear Decision Rule as Aspiration for Simple Decision Heuristics ? ur ? S?ims?ek Ozg Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition Max Planck Institute for Human Development Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany [email protected] Abstract Several attempts to understand the success of simple decision heuristics have examined heuristics as an approximation to a linear decision rule. This research has identified three environmental structures that aid heuristics: dominance, cumulative dominance, and noncompensatoriness. This paper develops these ideas further and examines their empirical relevance in 51 natural environments. The results show that all three structures are prevalent, making it possible for simple rules to reach, and occasionally exceed, the accuracy of the linear decision rule, using less information and less computation. 1 Introduction The comparison problem asks which of a number of objects has a higher value on an unobserved criterion. Typically, some attributes of the objects are available as input to the decision. An example is which of two houses that are currently for sale will have a higher return on investment ten years from now, given the location, age, lot size, and total living space of each house. The importance of comparison for intelligent behavior cannot be overstated. Much of human and animal behavior consists of choosing one object?from among a number of available alternatives? to act on, with respect to some criterion whose value is unobserved at the time. Examples include a venture capitalist choosing a company to invest in, a scientist choosing a conference to submit a paper to, a female tree frog deciding who to mate with, and an ant colony choosing a nest area to live in. This paper focuses on paired comparison, in which there are exactly two objects to choose from, and its solution using linear estimation. Specifically, it is concerned with the environmental structures that make it possible to mimic the decisions of the linear estimator using less information and less computation, asking two questions: How much of the linear estimator do we need to know to mimic its decisions, and under what conditions? How prevalent are these conditions in natural environments? In the following sections, I review several ideas from the literature, develop them further, and investigate their empirical relevance. 2 Background A standard approach to the comparison problem is to estimate the criterion as a function of the attributes of the object, typically as a linear function: y? = w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 + ... + wk xk , (1) where y? is the estimate of the criterion, w0 is the intercept, w1 ..wk are the weights, and x1 ..xk are the attribute values. This estimate leads to a decision between objects A and B as follows, where 1 ?xi is used to denote the difference in attribute values between the two objects: y?A ? y?B Decision rule = = : w1 (x1A ? x1B ) + w2 (x2A ? x2B ) + ... + wk (xkA ? xkB ) w1 ?x1 + w2 ?x2 + ... + wk ?xk ( Choose object A if w1 ?x1 + ... + wk ?xk > 0 Choose object B if w1 ?x1 + ... + wk ?xk < 0 Choose randomly if w1 ?x1 + ... + wk ?xk = 0 (2) (3) This decision rule does not need the linear estimator in its entirety. The intercept is not used at all. As for the weights, it suffices to know their sign and relative magnitude. For instance, with two attributes weighted +0.2 and +0.1, it suffices to know that both weights are positive and that the first one is twice as high as the other. The literature on simple decision heuristics [1, 2] has identified several environmental structures that allow simple rules to make decisions identical to those of the linear decision rule using less information [3]. These are dominance [4], cumulative dominance [5, 6], and noncompensatoriness [7, 8, 9, 10, 11]. I discuss each in turn in the following sections. I refer to attributes also as cues and to the signs of the weights as cue directions, as in the heuristics literature. An attribute that discriminates between two objects is one whose value differs on the two objects. A heuristic that corresponds to a particular linear decision rule is one whose cue directions, and cue order if it needs them, are identical to those of the linear decision rule. The discussion will focus on two successful families of heuristics. The first is unit weighting [12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17], which uses a linear decision rule with weights of +1 or ?1. The second is the family of lexicographic heuristics [18, 19], which examine cues one at a time, in a specified order, until a cue is found that discriminates between the objects. The discriminating cue, and that cue only, is used to make the decision. Lexicographic heuristics are an abstraction of the way words are ordered in a dictionary, with respect to the alphabetical order of the letters from left to right. 2.1 Dominance If all terms wi ?xi in Decision Rule 3 are nonnegative, and at least one of them is positive, then object A dominates object B. If all terms wi ?xi are zero, then objects A and B are dominance equivalent. It is easy to see that the linear decision rule chooses the dominant object if there is one. If objects are dominance equivalent, the decision rule chooses randomly. Dominance is a very strong relationship. When it is present, most decision heuristics choose identically to the linear decision rule if their cue directions match those of the linear rule. These include unit weighting and lexicographic heuristics, with any ordering of the cues. To check for dominance, it suffices to know the signs of the weights; the magnitudes of the weights are not needed. I occasionally refer to dominance as simple dominance to differentiate it from cumulative dominance, which I discuss next. 2.2 Cumulative dominance The linear sum in Equation 2 may be written alternatively as follows: y?A ? y?B (w1 ? w2 )?x1 + (w2 ? w3 )(?x1 + ?x2 ) +(w3 ? w4 )(?x1 + ?x2 + ?x3 ) + ... + wk (?x1 + .. + ?xk ) = w10 ?x01 + w20 ?x02 + w30 ?x03 + ... + wk0 ?x0k , Pi where (1) ?x0i = j=1 ?xj , ?i , (2) wi0 = wi ? wi+1 , i = 1, 2, .., k ? 1, and (3) wk0 = wk . = (4) To this alternative linear sum in Equation 4, we can apply the earlier dominance result, obtaining a new dominance relationship called cumulative dominance. Cumulative dominance uses an additional piece of information on the weights: their relative ordering. Object A cumulatively dominates object B if all terms wi0 ?x0i are nonnegative and at least one of them is positive. Objects A and B are cumulative-dominance equivalent if all terms wi0 ?x0i are zero. The linear decision rule chooses the cumulative-dominant object if there is one. If objects are 2 cumulative-dominance equivalent, the linear decision rule chooses randomly. Note that if weights w1 ..wk are positive and decreasing, it suffices to examine ?x0i to check for cumulative dominance (because wi0 > 0, ?i). As an example, consider comparing the value of two piles of US coins. The attributes would be the number of each type of coin in the pile, and the weights would be the financial value of each type of coin. A pile that contains 6 one-dollar coins, 4 fifty-cent coins, and 2 ten-cent coins cumulatively dominates (but not simply dominates) a pile containing 3 one-dollar coins, 5 fifty-cent coins, and 1 ten-cent coin: 6 > 3, 6 + 4 > 3 + 5, 6 + 4 + 2 > 3 + 5 + 1. Simple dominance implies cumulative dominance. Cumulative dominance is therefore more likely to hold than simple dominance. When a cumulative-dominance relationship holds, the linear decision rule, the corresponding lexicographic decision rule, and the corresponding unit-weighting rule decide identically, with one exception: unit weighting may find a tie where the linear decision rule does not [5]. 2.3 Noncompensatoriness Without loss of generality, assume that the weights w1 , w2 , .., wk are nonnegative, which can be satisfied by inverting the attributes when necessary. Consider the linear decision rule as a sequential process, where the terms wi ?xi are added one by one, in order of nonincreasing weights. If we were to stop after the first discriminating attribute, would our decision be identical to the one we would make by processing all attributes? Or would the subsequent attributes reverse this early decision? The answer is no, it is not possible for subsequent attributes to reverse the early decision, if the attributes are binary, taking values of 0 or 1, and the weights satisfy the set of constraints Pk wi > j=i+1 wj , i = 1, 2, .., k ? 1. Such weights are called noncompensatory. An example is the sequence 1, 0.5, 0.25, 0.125. With binary attributes and noncompensatory weights, the linear decision rule and the corresponding lexicographic decision rule decide identically [7, 8]. This concludes the review of the background material. The contributions of the present paper start in the next section. 3 A probabilistic approach to dominance Pk To choose between two objects, the linear decision rule examines whether i=1 wi ?xi is above, below, or equal to zero. This comparison can be made with certainty, without knowing the exact values of the weights, if a dominance relationships exists. Here I explore what can be done in the absence of such certainty. For instance, can we identify conditions under which the comparison can be made with very high probability? As a motivating example, consider the case where 9 out of 10 attributes favor object A against object B. Although we cannot be certain that the linear decision rule will select object A, that would be a very good bet. I make the simplifying assumption that |wi ?xi | are independent, identically distributed samples from the uniform distribution in the interval from 0 to 1. The choice of upper bound of the interval is not consequential because the terms wi ?xi can be rescaled. Let p and n be the number of positive and negative terms wi ?xi , respectively. Using the normal approximation to the sum of Pk uniform variables, we can approximate i=1 wi ?xi with the normal distribution with mean p?n 2 and variance p2 +n2 12 . This yields the following estimate of the probability PA that the linear decision p rule will select object A: PA ? P (X > 0), where X ? N ( p?n 2 , 2 +n2 12 ). Definition: Object A approximately dominates object B if P (X > 0) ? c, where c is a parameter p2 +n2 of the approximation (taking values close to 1) and X ? N ( p?n 2 , 12 ). A similar analysis applies to cumulative dominance. 3 4 An empirical analysis of relevance I now turn to the question of whether dominance and noncompensatoriness exist in our environment in any substantial amount. There are two earlier results on the subject. When binary versions of 20 natural datasets were used to train a multiple linear regression model, at least 3 of the 20 models were found to have noncompensatory weights [8].1 In the same 20 datasets, with a restriction of 5 on the maximum number of attributes, the proportion of object pairs that exhibited simple dominance ranged from 13% to 75% [4]. The present study used 51 natural datasets obtained from a wide variety of sources, including online data repositories, textbooks, research publications, packages for R statistical software, and individual scientists collecting field data. The subjects were diverse, including biology, business, computer science, ecology, economics, education, engineering, environmental science, medicine, political science, psychology, sociology, sports, and transportation. The datasets varied in size, ranging from 12 to 601 objects, corresponding to 66?180,300 distinct paired comparisons. Number of attributes ranged from 3 to 21. The datasets are described in detail in the supplementary material.2 I present two sets of results: on the original datasets and on binary versions where numeric attributes were dichotomized by splitting around the median (assigning the median value to the category with fewer objects). I refer to the original datasets as numeric datasets but it should be noted that one dataset had only binary attributes and many datasets had at least one binary attribute. Categorical attributes were recoded into binary attributes, one for each category, indicating membership in the category. Objects with missing criterion values were excluded from the analysis. Missing attribute values were replaced by means across all objects. A decision was considered to be accurate if it selected an object whose criterion value was equal to the maximum of the criterion values of the objects being compared. Cumulative dominance and noncompensatoriness are sensitive to the units of measurement of the attributes. In this analysis, all attribute values were normalized to lie between 0 and 1, measuring them relative to the smallest and largest values they take in the dataset. The linear decision rule was obtained using multiple linear regression with elastic net regularization [21], which contains both a ridge penalty and a lasso penalty. For the regularization parameter ?, which determines the relative proportion of ridge and lasso penalties, the values of 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1 were considered. For the regularization parameter ?, which controls the amount of total penalty, the default search path in the R-language package glmnet [22] was used. Both ? and ? were selected using cross validation. Specifically, ? and ? were set to the values that gave the minimum mean cross-validation error in the training set. I refer to the linear decision rule learned in this manner as the base decision rule. On datasets with fewer than 1000 pairs of objects, a separate linear decision rule was learned for every pair of objects, using all other objects as the training set. On larger datasets, the pairs of objects were randomly placed in 1000 folds and a separate model was learned for each fold, training with all objects not contained in that fold. Five replications were done using different random seeds. Performance of the base decision rule The accuracy of the base decision rule differed substantially across datasets, ranging from barely above chance to near-perfect. In numeric datasets, accuracy ranged from 0.56 to 0.98 (mean=0.79). In binary datasets, accuracy was generally lower, ranging from 0.55 to 0.86 (mean=0.74). Compared to standard multiple linear regression, regularization improved accuracy in most datasets, occasionally in large amounts (as much as by 19%). Without regularization, mean accuracy across datasets was lower by 1.17% in numeric datasets and by 0.51% in binary datasets. Dominance Figure 1 shows prevalence of dominance, measured by the proportion of object pairs in which one object dominates the other or the two objects are equivalent. The figure shows four types of dominance in each of the datasets. Simple and cumulative dominance are displayed as 1 The authors found 3 datasets in which the weights were noncompensatory and the order of the weights was identical to the cue order of the take-the-best heuristic [19]. It is possible that additional datasets had noncompensatory weights but did not match the take-the-best cue order. 2 The datasets included the 20 datasets in Czerlinski, Gigerenzer & Goldstein [20], which were used to obtain the two sets of earlier results discussed above [8, 4]. 4 1.0 0.8 Proportion of object pairs ??? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? 0.6 ?? ?? 0.4 ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ????? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Proportion of object pairs ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? Numeric datasets ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ??? ??? ? Binary datasets Figure 1: Prevalence of dominance. Blue lines show simple dominance, red lines show cumulative dominance, blue-filled circles show approximate simple dominance, and red-filled circles show approximate cumulative dominance. blue and red lines stacked on top of each other. Recall that simple dominance implies cumulative dominance, so the blue lines show pairs with both simple- and cumulative-dominance relationships. Approximate simple and cumulative dominance are displayed as blue- and red-filled circles, respectively. The datasets are presented in order of decreasing prevalence of simple dominance. The mean, median, minimum, and maximum prevalence of each type of dominance across the datasets N UMERIC DATASETS Mean Median Min Max Mean B INARY DATASETS Median Min Max PREVALENCE Dom Dom approx c=0.99 Cum dom Cum dom approx c=0.99 Noncompensatory weights Noncompensation ACCURACY (%) Dom Dom approx c=0.99 Cum dom Cum dom approx c=0.99 Lexicographic 0.25 0.35 0.58 0.74 0.16 0.31 0.62 0.77 0.00 0.03 0.11 0.30 0.91 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.99 0.51 0.58 0.87 0.92 0.17 0.93 0.54 0.59 0.89 0.92 0.00 0.96 0.07 0.22 0.61 0.76 0.00 0.77 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.83 0.85 0.49 76.8 81.2 90.6 94.2 93.5 77.2 82.9 93.4 96.1 96.1 56.2 57.0 60.8 69.5 51.4 97.5 100.5 101.4 101.4 110.6 87.1 90.5 98.3 99.2 97.6 89.0 91.2 98.9 99.6 99.6 63.9 70.6 90.6 93.8 78.9 100.0 100.0 103.7 103.7 104.4 Table 1: Descriptive statistics on dominance, cumulative dominance, and noncompensatoriness. Accuracy is shown as a percentage of the accuracy of the base decision rule. 5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 Accuracy Accuracy ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ????? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Numeric datasets ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.6 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? 0.5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Binary datasets Figure 2: Accuracy of decisions guided by dominance. Blue lines show simple dominance, red lines show cumulative dominance, blue-filled circles show approximate simple dominance, and redfilled circles show approximate cumulative dominance. Green circles show the accuracy of the base decision rule for comparison. are shown in Table 1, along with other performance measures that will be discussed shortly. The approximation made a difference in 27?33 of 51 datasets, depending on type of dominance and data (numeric/binary). As expected, the datasets on which the approximation made a difference were those that had a larger number of attributes. Specifically, they all had six or more attributes. Figure 2 shows the accuracy of decisions guided by dominance: choose the dominant object when there is one; choose randomly otherwise. This accuracy can be higher than the accuracy of the base decision rule, which happens if choosing randomly is more accurate than the base decision rule on pairs that exhibit no dominance relationship. Table 1 shows the mean, median, minimum, and maximum accuracies across the datasets measured as a percentage of the accuracy of the base decision rule. The accuracies were surprisingly high, more so with binary data. It is worth pointing out that the accuracy of approximate cumulative dominance in binary datasets ranged from 93.8% to 103.7% of the accuracy of the base decision rule. In the results discussed so far, approximate dominance was computed by setting c = 0.99. This value was selected prior to the analysis based on what this parameter means: 1 ? c is the expected error rate of the approximation, where error rate is the proportion of approximately dominant objects that are not selected by the linear decision rule. Figure 3, left panel, shows how well the approximation fared in the 51 datasets with various choices of the parameter c. The vertical axis shows the mean error rate of the approximation. With numeric data, the error rates were reasonably close to the expected values. With binary data, error rates were substantially lower than expected. 6 1.0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.8 0.6 ? ? 0.4 ? 0.2 0.03 ? 0.02 0.01 Observed error rate 0.04 ? ? Noncompensatory weights 0.05 ? Dom binary Cum dom binary Dom numeric Cum dom numeric ? 0.00 0.0 0.00 ? 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 Expected error rate (1 ? c) 0.05 Binary datasets Figure 3: Left: Error rates of approximate dominance with various values of the approximation parameter c. Right: Proportion of linear models with noncompensatory weights in each of the datasets. Noncompensatoriness Let noncompensation be a logical variable that equals T RUE if the decision of the first discriminating cue, when cues are processed in nonincreasing magnitude of the weights, is identical to the decision of the linear decision rule. With binary cues and noncompensatory weights, noncompensation is T RUE with probability 1. Otherwise, its value depends on cue values. If noncompensation is T RUE, the linear decision rule and the corresponding lexicographic rule make identical decisions. Figure 3, right panel, shows the proportion of base decision rules with noncompensatory weights in binary datasets. Recall that a large number of base decision rules were learned on each dataset, using different training sets and random seeds. The proportion of base decision rules with noncompensatory weights ranged from 0 to 1, with a mean of 0.17 across datasets. Nine datasets had values greater than 0.50. Thirty-two datasets had values less than 0.01. Figure 4 shows noncompensation in each dataset, together with the accuracies of the base decision rule and the corresponding lexicographic rule. The accuracies on the same dataset are connected by a line segment. The figure reveals overwhelmingly large levels of noncompensation, particularly for binary data. Median noncompensation was 0.85 in numeric datasets and 0.96 in binary datasets. Consequently, the accuracy of the lexicographic rule was very close to that of the linear decision rule: its median accuracy relative to the base decision rule was 96% in numeric datasets and 100% in binary datasets. In summary, although noncompensatory weights were not particularly prevalent in the datasets, actual levels of noncompensation were very high. 5 Discussion It is fair to conclude that all three environmental structures are prevalent in natural environments to such a high degree that decisions guided by these structures approach, and occasionally exceed, the base decision model in predictive accuracy. We have not examined the performance of any particular decision heuristic, which depends on the cue directions and cue order it uses. These will not necessarily match those of the linear decision rule.3 The results here show that it is possible for decision heuristics to succeed in natural environments by imitating the decisions of the linear model using less information and less computation? because the conditions that make it possible are prevelant?but not that they necessarily do so. 3 When this is the case, it should be noted, the decision heuristic may have a higher predictive accuracy than the linear model. 7 1.0 ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? Accuracy ? ? ? ? ? 0.7 NUMERIC ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.8 ? 0.6 ? 0.9 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.5 ? 0.8 ? ? ? Accuracy BINARY ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.7 ? 0.6 ? ? ? ? 0.9 0.5 ? 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Noncompensation Figure 4: Prevalence of noncompensation. For each dataset, the proportion of decisions in which noncompensation took place are plotted against the accuracy of the base decision rule (displayed in green circles) and the accuracy of the corresponding lexicographic rule (displayed in blue plus signs). Accuracies on the same dataset are connected by a line segment. When decision heuristics are examined through the lens of bias-variance decomposition [23, 24, 25], the three environmental structures examined here are particularly relevant for the bias component of the prediction error. The results presented here suggest that while simple decision heuristics examine a tiny fraction of the set of linear models, in natural environments, they may do so without introducing much additional bias. It is sometimes argued that the environmental structures discussed here, noncompensatoriness in particular, are relevant for model fitting but not for prediction on unseen data. This is not accurate. The results reviewed in Sections 2.1?2.3 apply to a linear model regardless of how the linear model was trained. If we are comparing objects that were not used to train the model, as we have done here, the discussion pertains to predictive accuracy. The probabilistic approximations of dominance and of cumulative dominance introduced in this paper can be used as decision heuristics themselves, combined with any method of estimating cue directions and cue order. I leave detailed examination of their performance for future work but note that the results here are encouraging. Finally, I hope that these results will stimulate further research in statistical properties of decision environments, as well as cognitive models that exploit them, for further insights into higher cognition. Acknowledgments I am grateful to all those who made their datasets available for this study. Thanks to Gerd Gigerenzer, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Amit Kothiyal, and three anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier versions of this manuscript, and to Marcus Buckmann for his help in gathering the datasets. ? ur S?ims?ek from the Deutsche ForschungsgeThis work was supported by Grant SI 1732/1-1 to Ozg? meinschaft (DFG) as part of the priority program ?New Frameworks of Rationality? (SPP 1516). 8 References [1] G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, and the ABC Research Group. Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press, New York, 1999. [2] G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, and T. Pachur, editors. Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior. Oxford University Press, New York, 2011. [3] K. V. Katsikopoulos. Psychological heuristics for making inferences: Definition, performance, and the emerging theory and practice. Decision Analysis, 8(1):10?29, 2011. [4] R. M. Hogarth and N. Karelaia. ?Take-the-best? and other simple strategies: Why and when they work ?well? with binary cues. Theory and Decision, 61(3):205?249, 2006. [5] M. Baucells, J. A. Carrasco, and R. M. Hogarth. Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multiattribute choice. Operations Research, 56(5):1289?1304, 2008. [6] J. A. Carrasco and M. Baucells. Tight upper bounds for the expected loss of lexicographic heuristics in binary multi-attribute choice. Mathematical Social Sciences, 55(2):156?189, 2008. [7] L. Martignon and U. Hoffrage. Why does one-reason decision making work? In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, and the ABC Research Group, editors, Simple heuristics that make us smart, pages 119?140. Oxford University Press, New York, 1999. [8] L. Martignon and U. Hoffrage. Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison. Theory and Decision, 52(1):29?71, 2002. [9] R. M. Hogarth and N. Karelaia. Simple models for multiattribute choice with many alternatives: When it does and does not pay to face trade-offs with binary attributes. Management Science, 51(12):1860?1872, 2005. [10] K. V. Katsikopoulos and L. Martignon. Na??ve heuristics for paired comparisons: Some results on their relative accuracy. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(5):488?494, 2006. [11] K. V. Katsikopoulos. Why do simple heuristics perform well in choices with binary attributes? Decision Analysis, 10(4):327?340, 2013. [12] S. S. Wilks. Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable. Psychometrika, 3(1):23?40, 1938. [13] F. L. Schmidt. The relative efficiency of regression and simple unit weighting predictor weights in applied differential psychology. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 31:699?714, 1971. [14] R. M. Dawes and B. Corrigan. Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 81(2):95?106, 1974. [15] R. M. Dawes. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34(7):571?582, 1979. [16] H. J. Einhorn and R. M. Hogarth. Unit weighting schemes for decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13(2):171?192, 1975. [17] C. P. Davis-Stober. A geometric analysis of when fixed weighting schemes will outperform ordinary least squares. Psychometrika, 76(4):650?669, 2011. [18] P. C. Fishburn. Lexicographic orders, utilities and decision rules: A survey. Management Science, 20(11):1442?1471, 1974. [19] G. Gigerenzer and D. G. Goldstein. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103(4):650?669, 1996. [20] J. Czerlinski, G. Gigerenzer, and D. G. Goldstein. How good are simple heuristics? In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, and the ABC Research Group, editors, Simple heuristics that make us smart, pages 97?118. Oxford University Press, New York, 1999. [21] H. Zou and T. Hastie. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 67:301?320, 2005. [22] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent. Journal of Statistical Software, 33(1):1?22, 2010. [23] S. Geman, E. Bienenstock, and R. Doursat. Neural networks and the bias/variance dilemma. Neural Computation, 4(1):1?58, 1992. [24] H. Brighton and G. Gigerenzer. Bayesian brains and cognitive mechanisms: Harmony or dissonance? In N. Chater and M. Oaksford, editors, The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science, pages 189?208. Oxford University Press, New York, 2008. [25] G. Gigerenzer and H. Brighton. Homo Heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science, 1(1):107?143, 2009. 9
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Scoring Workers in Crowdsourcing: How Many Control Questions are Enough? Qiang Liu Dept. of Computer Science Univ. of California, Irvine [email protected] Mark Steyvers Dept. of Cognitive Sciences Univ. of California, Irvine [email protected] Alexander Ihler Dept. of Computer Science Univ. of California, Irvine [email protected] Abstract We study the problem of estimating continuous quantities, such as prices, probabilities, and point spreads, using a crowdsourcing approach. A challenging aspect of combining the crowd?s answers is that workers? reliabilities and biases are usually unknown and highly diverse. Control items with known answers can be used to evaluate workers? performance, and hence improve the combined results on the target items with unknown answers. This raises the problem of how many control items to use when the total number of items each workers can answer is limited: more control items evaluates the workers better, but leaves fewer resources for the target items that are of direct interest, and vice versa. We give theoretical results for this problem under different scenarios, and provide a simple rule of thumb for crowdsourcing practitioners. As a byproduct, we also provide theoretical analysis of the accuracy of different consensus methods. 1 Introduction The recent rise of crowdsourcing has provided a fast and inexpensive way to collect human knowledge and intelligence, as illustrated by human intelligence marketplaces such as Amazon Mechanical Turk, games with purpose like ESP, reCAPTCHA, and crowd-based forecasting for politics and sports. One of the philosophies behind these successes is the wisdom of crowds phenomenon: properly combining a group of untrained people can be better than the average performance of the individuals, and even as good as the experts in many application domains (e.g., Surowiecki, 2005, Sheng et al., 2008). Unfortunately, it is not always obvious how best to combine the crowd, because the (often anonymous) workers have unknown and diverse levels of expertise, and potentially systematic biases across the crowd. Na??ve consensus methods which simply take uniform averages or the majority answer of the workers have been known to perform poorly. This raises the problem of scoring the workers, that is, estimating their expertise, bias and any other associated parameters, in order to combine their answers more effectively. One direct way to address this problem is to score workers using their past performance on similar problems. However, this is not always practical, since historical records are hard to maintain for anonymous workers, and their past tasks may be very different from the current one. An alternative is the idea behind reCAPTCHA: ?seed? some control items with known answers into the assigned tasks (without telling workers which are control items), score the workers using these control items, and weight their answers accordingly on the unknown target items. Similar ideas have been widely used in existing crowdsourcing systems. CrowdFlower, for example, provides interfaces and tools to allow requesters to explicitly specify and analyze a set of control items (sometimes called ?gold data?). The reCAPTCHA example is a particularly simple case, where workers answer exactly one control and one target item. However, in general crowdsourcing, the workers may answer hundreds of questions, raising the question of how many control items should be used. There is a clear tradeoff: having workers answer more control items gives better estimates of their performance and any 1 potential systematic bias, but leaves fewer resources for the target items that are of direct interest. However, using few control items gives poor estimates of workers? performance and their biases, also leading to bad results. A deep understanding of the value of control items may provide useful guidance for crowdsourcing practitioners. On the other hand, a line of research has studied more advanced consensus methods that are able to simultaneously estimate the workers? performance and items? answers without any ground truth on the items, by building joint statistical models of the workers and labels (e.g., Dawid and Skene, 1979, Whitehill et al., 2009, Karger et al., 2011, Liu et al., 2012, Zhou et al., 2012). The basic idea is to score the workers by their agreement with other workers, assuming that the majority of workers are correct. Perhaps surprisingly, the worker reliabilities estimated by these ?unsupervised? consensus methods can be almost as good as those estimated when the true labels of all the items are known, and are much better than self-evaluated worker reliability (Romney et al., 1987, Lee et al., 2012). Control items can also be incorporated into these methods: but how much can we expect them to improve results, or does an ?unsupervised? method suffice? The goal of this paper is to study the value of control items, and provide practical guidance on how many control items are enough under different scenarios. We give both theoretical and empirical results for this problem, and provide some rules of thumbs that that are easy to use in practice. We develop our theory on a class of Gaussian models for estimating continuous quantities, such as forecasting probabilities and point spreads in sports games, and show how it extends to more general models. As a byproduct, we also provide analytic results of the accuracy of different consensus algorithms. Important practical issues such as the impact of model misspecification, systematic biases and heteroscedasticity are also highlighted on real datasets. 2 Background Assume there is a set T of target items, associated with a set of labels ?T ?= {?i ? i ? T } whose true values ??T we want to estimate. In addition, we have a set C of control (or training) items whose true labels ??C ?= {??i ? i ? C} are known. We denote the set of workers by W; each worker j is associated with a parameter ?j? that characterizes their expertise, bias, any other relevant features. We denote the complete vector of worker parameters by ? ?= {?j? ? j ? W}. Both ? and ? are assumed to be continuous variables in this paper. Denote by nt the number of target items and m the workers. Let ?i be the set of workers assigned to item i, and ?jt (and ?jc ) the set of target (and control) items labeled by worker j. The assignment relationship between the workers and the target items can be represented by a bipartite graph Gt = (T , W, Et ), where there is an edge (ij) ? Et iff item i is assigned to worker j. Let ri be the number of workers assigned to the i-th target item, and let `tj (and `cj ) be the number of target (and control) items assigned to the j-th worker. Note that {ri } and {`tj } are the two degree sequences of the bipartite graph Gt . Denote by xij the label we collect from worker j for item i. In general, we can assume that xij is a random variable drawn from a probabilistic distribution p(xij ???i , ?j? ). The computational question is then to construct an estimator ? ?T of the true labels ??T based on the crowdsourced labels {xij }, such that the expected mean square error (MSE) on the target items, E[??? ?T ? ??T ??2 ], is minimized. Gaussian Model. We focus on a class of simple Gaussian models on the labels xij : xij = ??i + b?j + ?ij , ?ij ? N (0, ? ?2 ), (1) where ??i is the quantity of interest of item i, b?j is the bias of worker j, and ? ?2 is the variance. For some quantities, like probabilities and prices, proper transforms should be applied before using such Gaussian models. Model (1) is equivalent to the two-way fixed effects model in statistics (e.g., Chamberlain, 1982). It captures heterogeneous biases across workers that are commonly observed in practice, for example in workers? judgments on probabilities and prices, and which can have significant effects on the estimate accuracy. This model also has nice theoretical properties and will play an important role in our theoretical analysis. Note that the biases are not identifiable solely from the crowdsourced labels {xij }, making it is necessary to add some control items or other information when decoding the answers. 2 An extension of model (1) is to introduce heteroscedasticity, allowing different workers to have different level of Gaussian noise: that is, xij = ??i + b?j + ?j? ?ij , where ?ij ? N (0, 1) and ?j?2 is a variance parameter of worker j. We will refer to this extension as the bias-variance model, and Model (1) as the bias-only model. We will also consider another special case, xij = ??j + ?j? ?ij , which assumes the workers all have zero bias but different variances (the variance-only model). Theoretical analysis of the bias-variance and variance-only models are significantly more difficult due to the presence of the variance parameters, but is still possible under asymptotic assumption. 2.1 Consensus Algorithms With Partial Ground Truth Control items with known true labels can be used to estimate workers? parameters, and hence improve the estimation accuracy. In this section, we introduce two types of consensus methods that incorporate the control items in different ways: one simply scores the workers based on their performance on the control items, while the other uses a joint maximum likelihood estimator that scores the worker based on their answers on both control items and target items. We present both methods in terms of a general model p(xij ??i , ?j ) here; the updates for the Gaussian models can be easily derived, but are omitted for space. Two-stage Estimator: the workers? parameters are first estimated using the control items, and are then used to predict the target items. That is, Scoring workers: ??j = arg max ? log p(xij ???i , ?j ), ?j Predicting target items: for all j ? W, (2) for all i ? T , (3) i??jc ? ?i = arg max ? log p(xij ??i , ??j ), ?i j??i where we use the maximum likelihood estimator as a general procedure for estimating parameters. Joint Estimator: we directly maximize the joint likelihood of the crowdsourced labels {xij } of both target and control items, with ?C of the control items clamped to the true values ??C . That is, [? ?T , ??] = arg max { ? ? log p(xij ???i , ?j ) + ? ? log p(xij ??i , ?j )}, [?T ,?] i?C j??i (4) i?T j??i which can be solved by block coordinate descent, alternatively optimizing ?T and ?. Compared to the two-stage estimator, the joint estimator estimates the workers? parameters based on both the control items and the target items, even though their true labels are unknown. This is because the labels xij provide information on ??i through the model assumption p(xij ???i , ?j? ). Therefore, the joint estimator may be much more efficient than the two-stage estimator when the model assumptions are satisfied, but may perform poorly if the model is misspecified. 3 How many control items are enough? We now consider the central question: assuming each worker answers ` items (we refer ` as the budget), including k control items and ` ? k target items, what is the optimal choice of k to minimize the expected MSE? To be concrete, here we assume all the workers (items) are assigned to the same number of randomly selected items (workers), and hence the assignment graph Gt is a random semi-regular bipartite graph, which can be generated by the configuration model (e.g., Karger et al., 2011). We assume r is the number of labels received by each target item, so that r = m(` ? k)/nt . Obviously, the optimal number of control items should depend on their usage in the subsequent consensus method. We will show that the two-stage and joint estimators exploit control items in fundamentally different ways,?and yield very different optimal values of k. Roughly speaking, the ? optimal k should scale as O( `) when using a two-stage estimator, compared to O(`/ nt ) when using joint estimators. We now discuss these two methods separately. 3.1 Optimal k for Two-stage Estimator We first address the problem on the bias-only model, which has a particularly simple analytic solution. We then extend our results to more general models. 3 Theorem 3.1. (i). For the bias-only model with xij = ??i + b?j + ?ij , where ?ij are i.i.d. noise drawn from N (0, ? ?2 ), the expected mean square error (MSE) of the two-stage estimator in (2)-(3) is ? ?2 1 ?i ? ??i ??2 /nt ] = (1 + ). (5) E[ ? ??? r k i?T (ii). Note ? that r = m(`?? k)/nt , and the optimal k that minimizes the expected MSE in (5) is ? k = ? ` + 5/4 ? 3/2? ? `, where ?z? denotes the smallest integer no less than z. Proof. The solution of two-stage estimator has a simple linear form under the bias-only model, 1 1 ? ?i = ? (xij ? ?bj ), ?bj = ? (xij ? ??i ), for ?i ? T , ?j ? W. r j??i k i?? c j Since the xij are Gaussian, the ? ?i are also Gaussian. Calculating the mean and variance of ? ?i , we have that E? ?i = ??i , and Var(? ?i ) as in (5). The remaining steps are straightforward. Remarks. (i). Eq. (5) shows that the MSE is inversely proportional to the number r of workers per target item, while the number k of control items per workers only refines the multiplicative constant. Therefore, the resources assigned to the control items are much less ?useful? than those assigned directly to the target items, suggesting the optimal k should be much less than the budget `. (ii). On the other hand, if k is too small, the multiplicative constant becomes large, which also degrades the MSE. In the extreme, if k = 0 then the bias is unidentifiable, and the MSE grows to infinity. In addition, if the budget ` grows to infinity, the optimal k should also grow to infinity, otherwise the multiplicative constant is strictly larger than one, which is suboptimal. One can readily ? see that k = O( `) achieves the desired balance of trade-offs. General Models. The bias-only model is simple enough to give closed form solutions. It turns out that we can obtain similar results for more general models such as the bias-variance and the variance-only model, but only in the asymptotic regime. To set up, assume {?i } and {?j } are drawn from prior distributions Q? and Q? , respectively. Assume log p(xij ??i , ?j ) is twice differentiable w.r.t. ?i and ?j for all xij . Define the Fisher information matrix H?? = ?Ex [?2?? log p(x??, ?)], and similarly for H?? and H?? . Note that H?? is a random variable dependent on ? and ?, and denote by E?? [H?? ] its expectation w.r.t. Q? and Q? . Theorem 3.2. (i). Assume the crowdsourced labels {xij } are drawn from p(xij ???i , ?j? ), where {??i } and {?j? } are drawn from priors Q? and Q? , respectively. The asymptotic expected MSE of the two-stage estimator defined in (2)-(3), as both r and k grow to infinity, is a ? ?2 (1 + ), E[ ? ??? ?i ? ??i ??2 /nt ] = (6) r k i?T ?1 ?1 2 where ? ? 2 = E?? [tr(H?? )], J?? = Ex,? [?2?? log p(x??, ?)H?? ??? log p(x??, ?)T ], and a = ?1 ?1 ?1 E?? [tr(H?? J?? H?? )]/E?? [tr(H?? )], (ii). Note ? that r = m(` ? k)/nt , and ? the optimal k that minimizes the asymptotic MSE in (6) is ? 2 k = ? a` + a + 1/4 ? a ? 1/2? ? a`, where ?k? denotes the smallest integer no less than k. Proof. Similar to Theorem 3.1, except asymptotic normality of M-estimators (e.g., Van der Vaart, 2000) should be used. Remarks. (i). The result in Theorem 3.2 is parallel to that in Theorem 3.1 for bias-only models, except that the contribution from uncertainty on the workers? parameters is scaled by a model? dependent factor a, and correspondingly, the optimal k is scaled by a. Calculation yields a = 2 for the variance-only model, and a = 3 for the bias-variance model for any choice of prior Q? and Q? . ? (ii). Letting k take continuous values, the optimal k to minimize (6) is k ? = a` + a2 ? a, which achieves a minimum MSE of nmt ? ? ? 2 /(` ? 2k ? ). For comparison, the MSE would be nmt ? ? ? 2 /(` ? k ? ) if the worker parameters were known exactly. So, the uncertainty in the workers? parameters creates an effective extra loss of k ? labels for each target item. Note that this rule is universal, in that it remains true for any a (and hence any model). 4 3.2 Optimal k for Joint Estimator The two-stage estimator is easy to analyze in that its accuracy is independent of the structure of the bipartite assignment graph beyond the degree r and k. This is not true for the joint estimator, whose accuracy depends on the topological structure of the assignment graph in a non-trivial way. In this section we study the properties of the joint estimator, again starting with the simple bias-only model, then discussing its extension to more general cases. We first introduce some matrix notation. Let At be the adjacency matrix of Gt . Let Rt ?= diag({ri ? i ? T }) be the diagonal matrix formed by the degree sequence of the target items, and similarly define Lt = diag({`tj ? j ? W}) and Lc = diag({`cj ? j ? W}). Theorem 3.3. (i). For the bias-only model with xij = ??i + b?j + ?ij , where ?ij are i.i.d. noise drawn from N (0, ? ?2 ), the expected MSE of the joint estimator defined in (4) is E[ ? ??? ?i ? ??i ??2 /nt ] = ? ?2 tr((Rt ? At (Lt + Lc )?1 ATt )?1 )/nt , (7) i?T If At is regular, with Rt = rI and Lt = (` ? k)I, this simplifies: 1 `?k T E[ ? ??? ?i ? ??i ??2 /nt ] = ? ?2 tr((I ? W )?1 )/nt , where W = Rt?1 At L?1 (8) t At . r ` i?T Proof. Assume B ?= I ? Rt?1 At (Lt + Lc )?1 ATt is invertible. The solution of the joint estimator on 1 1 the bias-only model is ? ?T = ??T + B ?1 zT , where zi = ? (?ij ? ??j ), and ??j = c t ? ?ij ri j??i `j + `j i? ?? c ?? t and ?ij = xij ? ??i ? b?j for ?i ? T . We obtain (7) by calculating Var(? ?T ). j j Remarks. (ii). Equation (8) establishes an explicit connection between MSE and the spectral strucT ture of the bipartite graph Gt . Consider the eigenvalues 1 = ?1 ? ?2 ? ? ? 0 of W ?= Rt?1 At L?1 t At , where the second largest eigenvalue ?2 famously characterizes the connectivity of the graph Gt . Roughly speaking, Gt has better connectivity if ?2 is small, and verse versa. Observe that tr((I ? nt `?k ` nt ? 1 `?k W )?1 ) = ?(1 ? ?i )?1 ? + . `?k ` ` k 1 ? ?2 i=1 ` (9) Therefore, the joint estimator performs better when ?2 is small, i.e., when the graph is strongly connected. Intuitively, better connectivity ?couples? the items and workers more tightly together, making it easier not to make mistakes during inference. Besides hoping for small error, one may also want the assignment graph to be sparse, i.e., use fewer labels. Graphs that are both sparse and strongly connected are known as expander graphs, and have been found universally important in areas like robust computer networks, error correcting codes, and communication networks; see Hoory et al. (2006) for a review. It is well known that large sparse random regular graphs are good expanders (e.g., Friedman et al., 1989), and hence a near-optimal allocation strategy for crowdsourcing (Karger et al., 2011). On such graphs, we can also estimate the optimal k in a simple form. Theorem 3.4. Assume At is a random regular bipartite graph, and nt = m. We have that E[ ? ??? ?i ? ??i ??2 /nt ] = i?T ` 1 ? ?2 nt ? 1 [ ], (1 + O( )) + ` ? k nt ` nt k (10) with ` ? ?, the optimal k that minimizes (10) is k ? = ? probability one as nt ? ?. If in addition ? 2 2 2 ? ` /nt + ` /nt + 1/4 ? `/nt ? 1/2? ? `/ nt . Proof. Use (9) and the bound in Puder (2012) for ?2 of large random regular bipartite graphs. Remarks. (i). Perhaps surprisingly, the optimal k of the joint estimator scales linearly w.r.t. budget `, in contrast ? to the square-root rule of two-stage estimators. However, since usually ` ? nt , we have ? `/ nt ? `, that is, the joint estimator requires fewer control items than the two-stage estimator. 5 (ii). In addition, the optimal k for the joint estimator also decreases as the total number nt of target items increases. Because nt is usually quite large in practice, the number of control items is usually very small. In particular, as nt ? ?, we have k ? = 1, that is, there is no need for control items beyond fixing the unidentifiability issue of the biases. General Models. The joint estimator on general models is more involved to analyze, but it is still possible to give an rough estimate by analyzing the Fisher information matrix of the likelihood. For notation, let H?? = Rt ? E?? (H?? ), and H?? = (Lt + Lc ) ? E?? (H?? ), where ? is the Kronecker product, and H?? = [H?i ?j ]ij is a block matrix, where block H?i ?j for (ij) ? Et is a random copy of ??2?? log p(x??, ?) with random x, ? and ?, and H?i ?j = 0 for (ij) ? Et . Assuming the joint maximum likelihood estimator in (4) is asymptotically consistent (in terms of large ` and r), we can estimate its asymptotic MSE by the inverse of the Fisher information matrix, E[ ? ??? ?i ? ??i ??2 /nt ] ? E[tr((H?? ? H?? H?? ?1 H?? T )?1 )]/nt , i?T where the expectation on the right side is w.r.t. the randomness of H?? . This parallels (7) in Theorem 3.3, except the adjacency matrices are replaced by corresponding Hessian matrices. Unfortunately, it is more challenging to give a simple estimate of the optimal k as in Theorem 3.4, even when At is a random bipartite graph, because the spectral properties of the random matrix are complicated by blockwise structure, and may?depend on the prior distribution Q(?). However, experimentally the optimal k follows the trend ` a/nt , where the constant a depends on both the model assumption and the choice of Q(?), and can be numerically estimated by simulation. 4 Experiments We show that our theoretical predictions match closely to the results on simulated data and two real datasets for estimating prices and point spreads. The experiments also highlight important practical issues such as the impact of model misspecification, biases, and heteroskedasticity. Datasets and Setup. The simulated data are generated by the Gaussian models definited in Section 2, where ?i and bj are i.i.d. drawn from N (1, 1); and ?j from a ?2 -distribution with degree 4 for the heteroskedastic versions. The price dataset consists of 80 household items collected from stores like Amazon and Costco, whose prices are estimated by 155 undergraduate students at UC Irvine. A log transform is performed on the prices before using the Gaussian models. The National Football League (NFL) forecasting data was collected by Massey et al. (2011), where 386 participants were asked to predict the point difference of 245 NFL games. We use the point spreads determined by professional bookmakers as the truth values in our experiments. For all the experiments, we first construct the set of target items and control items by randomly partitioning items, and then randomly assign each worker with k control items and `?k target items, for varying values of ` and k. The MSE is estimated by averaging over 500 random trials. The optimal k is estimated by minimizing the averaged MSE over 300 randomly subsampled trials, and then taking average over 20 random subsamples. Optimal Number of Control Items. See Figure 1 for the results of the bias-only model when the data are simulated from the correct model. Figure 1(a) shows the empirical MSE of the two-stage estimator when varying the number k of control items. A clear trade-off appears: MSE is large both when k is too small to estimate workers? parameters accurately, and when k is too large to leave a sufficient number of labels for the target items. The MSE of the joint estimator in Figure 1(b) follows a similar trend, but the gain by using control items is less significant (the left parts of the curves are flatter). This is because the joint estimator leverages the labels on the target items (whose true values are unknown), and relies less on the control items. In particular, as the number n? t of target items increases, the optimal value of k for the joint estimator decreases with a rate of 1/ nt (see Figure 1(d)), but that of the two-stage estimator stays the same. Overall, the empirical optimal k of the two-stage and joint estimator aligns closely with our theoretical prediction (Figure 1(c)-(d)). We show in Figure 2(a) the result of the bias-variance model when data ? are simulated from the correct model. The optimal k of the two-stage estimator aligns closely to a` with a = 3, matching ? the asymptotic result in Theorem 3.2, while that of the joint estimator scales like the line ` a/nt with a ? 3, matching our hypothesis in Section 3.2. 6 0.6 =7 0.5 10 8 0.6  = 10 MSE MSE  = 10 0.3  = 15 0.2  = 20 0.2  = 15 6 4 Joint (empirical) ? Joint (/ n t) 4 Two-stage (empirical) ? Two-stage ( )  = 20  = 50 0 1 Optimal k 0.4 0.4 6 =7 Optimal k 0.8 2 3 5 8 13 22 36 60 100 k (# of control items) (a) Two-stage Estimator 2 0.1  = 50 0 1 0 0 2 3 5 8 13 22 36 60 100 k (# of control items) 2 50 Budget  100 (c) Optimal k vs. ` (b) Joint Estimator 100 200 300 400 500 600 n t (# of target items) (d) Optimal k vs. nt Figure 1: Results of the bias-only model on data simulated from the same model. (a)-(b) The MSE of the two-stage and joint estimators with varying ` and k and fixed nt = 100. The stars and circles denote the empirically and theoretically optimal k, respectively. (c) The optimal k with varying `, but fixed nt = 100. (d) The optimal k with varying nt , but fixed ` = 50. We set m = nt here. Model misspecification. Real datasets are not expected to match the model assumptions perfectly. It is important, but difficult, to understand how the theory should be modified to compensate for the violation of assumptions. We provide some insights on this by constructing model misspecification artificially. Figure 2(b)-(c) shows the results when the data are simulated from a bias-variance model with non-zero biases, but we use the variance-only model (with zero bias) in the consensus algorithm. We see in Figure 2(b) that the optimal k of the two-stage estimator still aligns closely to our theoretical prediction, but that of the joint estimator is much larger than one would expect (almost half of the budget `). In addition, the MSE of the joint estimator in this case is significantly worse than that of the two-stage estimator (see Figure 2(c)), which is not expected if the model assumption holds. Therefore, the joint estimator seems to be more sensitive to model misspecification than the two-stage estimator, suggesting that caution should be taken when it is applied in practice. Real Datasets. Figure 3 shows the results of the bias-only model on the two real datasets; our prediction of the optimal k matches the empirical results surprisingly well on the NFL dataset (Figure 3(d)-(f)), while our theoretically optimal values of k on the price dataset tend to be smaller than the actual values (Figure 3(a)-(c)), perhaps caused by some unknown model misspecification. However, our bias on the estimated k does not cause a significant increase in MSE, because the scale in Figure 3(a)-(b) is relatively small compared to that in Figure 4(a). Interestingly, the two real datasets have opposite properties in terms of the importance of bias and heteroskedasticity (see Figure 4): In the price dataset, all the workers tend to underestimate the prices of the products, i.e., bj are negative for all workers, and the bias-only model performs much better than the zero-bias variance-only model. In contrast, the participants in the NFL dataset exhibit no systematic bias but seem to have different individual variances, and the variance-only model works better than the bias-only model. In both cases, the full bias-variance model works best if budget ` is large, but is not necessarily best if the budget is small and over-fitting is an issue. 5 Conclusion The problem of how many control questions to use is unlikely to yield a definitive answer, since real data are always likely to be more complicated than any model. However, our results highlight several issues and provide insights and rules of thumb that can help crowdsourcing practitioners make ? their own decisions. In particular, we show that the optimal number of control items should be O( `) for ? the two-stage estimator and O(`/ nt ) for the joint estimator. Because the number nt of target items is usually large in practice, it is reasonable to recommend using a minimal number of control items, just enough to fix potential unidentifiability issues, assuming the model assumptions hold well. However, the joint estimator may require significantly more control items if model misspecification exists; in this case one might better switch to the more robust two-stage estimator, or search for better models. The control items can also be used to do model selection, an issue which deserves further discussion in the future. Acknowledgements. Work supported in part by NSF IIS-1065618 and IIS-1254071 and a Microsoft Research Fellowship. Thanks to Tobias Johnson for discussion on random matrix theory. 7 15 Two-stage (empirical) ? Two-stage ( 3) 10 5 50 Joint (empirical) 40 Two-stage (empirical) ? Two-stage ( 2) 1.5 30 MSE Joint (empirical)  Joint ( 3/n t) Optimal k Optimal k 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 Budget  80  = 60  = 80  = 100 0.5 0 0 100  = 40 1 20 20 40 60 Budget  (a) Bias-variance Model 80 100 2 3 5 8 13 22 36 60 100 k (# of control items) (b)-(c) Model Misspecification Figure 2: (a) Results of the bias-variance model on data simulated from the same model. (b)-(c) Results when the data are simulated from the bias-variance model with non-zero biases, but we use the variance-only model (with zero bias) in the consensus algorithm. With this model misspecification, the joint estimator requires significantly more control items than one would expect (almost half of the budget `), and performs worse than the two-stage estimator. 0.22 0.22 Joint (empirical) ? Joint (/ n t) 0.21  = 10  = 10  = 15  = 25 0.2 1 2 3 5 8 13  = 15  = 25 0.2 1 22 k (# of control items) 3 5 8 13 2 0 22 30 =7 14  = 10 MSE 12 12  = 15  = 15 10  = 25 8 Joint (empirical) ? Joint (/ n t) 6 Optimal k  = 10 MSE 10 20 Budget  (c) Optimal k vs. ` 16 10 4 18 =7 14 6 (b) Joint Estimator 16 NFL Dataset 2 Two-stage (empirical) ? Two-stage ( ) 8 k (# of control items) (a) Two-stage Estimator 18 Optimal k 0.21 =7 MSE MSE Price Dataset 10 =7 Two-stage (empirical) ? Two-stage ( ) 4  = 25 2 22 0 8 6 1 2 3 5 8 13 6 1 22 k (# of control items) 2 3 5 8 13 k (# of control items) (d) Two-stage Estimator 10 20 30 Budget  40 (f) Optimal k vs. ` (e) Joint Estimator Figure 3: Results on the real datasets when using the bias-only model. (a)-(b) and (d)-(e) The MSE when using the two-stage and joint estimators, respectively. (c) and (f) The empirically and theoretically optimal k as the budget ` varies. Here we fix nt = 50 for price dataset and nt = 200 for NFL dataset. 20 0.34 Uniform Mean Bias?only / Joint Bias?variance / Joint Variance?only / Joint Bias?only / Two?stage Bias?variance / Two?stage Variance?only / Two?stage 0.32 15 MSE MSE 0.3 0.28 0.26 10 0.24 0.22 0.2 2 5 5 10 Budget  (a) Price Dataset 20 2 5 10 Budget  20 (b) NFL Dataset Figure 4: Comparison of different models and consensus methods on the two real datasets. (a)-(b) The MSE when selecting the best possible k as the budget ` varies. The workers in the price dataset has systematic bias, and the bias-only model works better than the variance-only model, while the workers in NFL dataset have no bias but different individual variances, and the variance-only model is better than bias-only. In both datasets, the full bias-variance model works best if the budget ` is large, but is not necessarily best if the budget is small when over-fitting is an issue. 8 References James Surowiecki. The wisdom of crowds. Anchor, 2005. Victor S Sheng, Foster Provost, and Panagiotis G Ipeirotis. Get another label? Improving data quality and data mining using multiple, noisy labelers. In Proc. SIGKDD Int?l Conf. on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 614?622. ACM, 2008. A.P. Dawid and A.M. Skene. Maximum likelihood estimation of observer error-rates using the EM algorithm. Applied Statistics, pages 20?28, 1979. Jacob Whitehill, Paul Ruvolo, Tingfan Wu, Jacob Bergsma, and Javier Movellan. Whose vote should count more: Optimal integration of labels from labelers of unknown expertise. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 2035?2043, 2009. D.R. Karger, S. Oh, and D. Shah. Iterative learning for reliable crowdsourcing systems. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 1953?1961, 2011. Qiang Liu, Jian Peng, and Alexander Ihler. Variational inference for crowdsourcing. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 701?709, 2012. Dengyong Zhou, John Platt, Sumit Basu, and Yi Mao. Learning from the wisdom of crowds by minimax entropy. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 2204? 2212, 2012. A Kimball Romney, William H Batchelder, and Susan C Weller. Recent applications of cultural consensus theory. American Behavioral Scientist, 31(2):163?177, 1987. Michael D Lee, Mark Steyvers, Mindy de Young, and Brent Miller. Inferring expertise in knowledge and prediction ranking tasks. Topics in cognitive science, 4(1):151?163, 2012. Gary Chamberlain. Multivariate regression models for panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18(1): 5?46, 1982. Aad W Van der Vaart. Asymptotic statistics, volume 3. Cambridge university press, 2000. Shlomo Hoory, Nathan Linial, and Avi Wigderson. Expander graphs and their applications. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 43(4):439?561, 2006. Joel Friedman, Jeff Kahn, and Endre Szemeredi. On the second eigenvalue of random regular graphs. In Proc. ACM Symp. on Theory of Computing, pages 587?598. ACM, 1989. Doron Puder. Expansion of random graphs: arXiv:1212.5216, 2012. New proofs, new results. arXiv preprint Cade Massey, Joseph P Simmons, and David A Armor. Hope over experience: Desirability and the persistence of optimism. Psychological Science, 22(2):274?281, 2011. 9
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Estimating Average-Case Learning Curves Using Bayesian, Statistical Physics and VC Dimension Methods David Haussler University of California Santa Cruz, California Michael Kearns? AT&T Bell Laboratories Murray Hill, New Jersey Manfred Opper Institut fur Theoretische Physik Universita.t Giessen, Germany Robert Schapire AT&T Bell Laboratories Murray Hill, New Jersey Abstract In this paper we investigate an average-case model of concept learning, and give results that place the popular statistical physics and VC dimension theories of learning curve behavior in a common framework. 1 INTRODUCTION In this paper we study a simple concept learning model in which the learner attempts to infer an unknown target concept I, chosen from a known concept class:F of {O, 1}valued functions over an input space X. At each trial i, the learner is given a point Xi E X and asked to predict the value of I(xi) . If the learner predicts I(xi) incorrectly, we say the learner makes a mistake. After making its prediction, the learner is told the correct value. This simple theoretical paradigm applies to many areas of machine learning, including much of the research in neural networks. The quantity of fundamental interest in this setting is the learning curve, which is the function of m defined as the prob?Contact author. Address: AT&T Bell Laboratories, 600 Mountain Avenue, Room 2A-423, Murray Hill, New Jersey 07974. Electronic mail: [email protected]. 855 856 Haussler, Kearns, Opper, and Schapire ability the learning algorithm makes a mistake predicting f(xm+I}, having already seen the examples (Xl, I(x!)), ... , (xm, f(xm)). In this paper we study learning curves in an average-case setting that admits a prior distribution over the concepts in F. We examine learning curve behavior for the optimal Bayes algorithm and for the related Gibbs algorithm that has been studied in statistical physics analyses of learning curve behavior. For both algorithms we give new upper and lower bounds on the learning curve in terms of the Shannon information gain. The main contribution of this research is in showing that the average-case or Bayesian model provides a unifying framework for the popular statistical physics and VC dimension theories of learning curves. By beginning in an average-case setting and deriving bounds in information-theoretic terms, we can gradually recover a worst-case theory by removing the averaging in favor of combinatorial parameters that upper bound certain expectations. Due to space limitations, the paper is technically dense and almost all derivations and proofs have been omitted. We strongly encourage the reader to refer to our longer and more complete versions [4, 6] for additional motivation and technical detail. 2 NOTATIONAL CONVENTIONS Let X be a set called the instance space. A concept class F over X is a (possibly infinite) collection of subsets of X. We will find it convenient to view a concept f E F as a function I : X - {O, I}, where we interpret I(x) = 1 to mean that x E X is a positive example of f, and f(x) = 0 to mean x is a negative example. The symbols P and V are used to denote probability distributions. The distribution P is over F, and V is over X. When F and X are countable we assume that these distributions are defined as probability mass functions. For uncountable F and X they are assumed to be probability measures over some appropriate IT-algebra. All of our results hold for both countable and uncountable F and X. We use the notation E I E'P [x (f)] for the expectation of the random variable X with respect to the distribution P, and Pr/E'P[cond(f)] for the probability with respect to the distribution P of the set of all I satisfying the predicate cond(f). Everything that needs to be measurable is assumed to be measurable. 3 INFORMATION GAIN AND LEARNING Let F be a concept class over the instance space X. Fix a target concept I E F and an infinite sequence of instances x = Xl, .. . , X m , Xm+l, ... with Xm E X for all m. For now we assume that the fixed instance sequence x is known in advance to the learner, but that the target concept I is not. Let P be a probability distribution over the concept class F. We think of P in the Bayesian sense as representing the prior beliefs of the learner about which target concept it will be learning. In our setting, the learner receives information about I incrementally via the label Estimating Average-Case Learning Curves sequence I(xd, ... , I(x m), I(xm+d, .... At time m, the learner receives the label I(x m ). For any m ~ 1 we define (with respect to x, I) the mth version space Fm(x, I) = {j E F: j(xd = I(XI), . .. , j(Xm) = I(xm)} = = and the mth volume V!(x, I) P[Fm(x, I)]. We define Fo(x, I) F for all x and I, so Vl(x, I) = 1. The version space at time m is simply the class of all concepts in F consistent with the first m labels of I (with respect to x), and the mth volume is the measure of this class under P. For the first part of the paper, the infinite instance sequence x and the prior P are fixed; thus we simply write Fm(f) and Vm(f). Later, when the sequence x is chosen randomly, we will reintroduce this dependence explicitly. We adopt this notational practice of omitting any dependence on a fixed x in many other places as well. For each m ~ 0 let us define the mth posterior distribution Pm(x, I) = Pm by restricting P to the mth version space Fm(f); that is, for all (measurable) S C F, Pm[S] = P[S n Fm(I))/P[Fm(l)] = P[S n Fm(I)]/Vm(f). Having already seen I(xd, ... , I(x m ), how much information (assuming the prior P) does the learner expect to gain by seeing I(xm+d? If we let Im+l(x, I) (abbreviated Im+l (I) since x is fixed for now) be a random variable whose value is the (Shannon) information gained from I(xm+d, then it can be shown that the expected information is E /E 'P[Im +1 (f)] = E/E'P [-log where we define the (m Vm +l (f)/Vm(f). + v~:(j~) 1= E/E'P[-logXm+1 (I)] 1)st volume ratio by X!:+l (x, I) = Xm+l (f) (1) = We now return to our learning problem, which we define to be that of predicting the label I(xm+d given only the previous labels I(XI), . .. , I(xm). The first learning algorithm we consider is called the Bayes optimal classification algorithm, or the Bayes algorithm for short. For any m and bE {O, I}, define F:n(x,!) F:n(1) = {j E Fm(x,!) : j(xm+d = b}. Then the Bayes algorithm is: = If Pm[F~(f)] > Pm[F~(I)], < Pm[F~(I)], predict I(xm+d = 1. If Pm[F~(f)] predict I(xm+d = O. If Pm[F~(f)] = Pm[F~(f)], flip a fair coin to predict I(xm+d? It is well known that if the target concept I is drawn at random according to the prior distribution P, then the Bayes algorithm is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the probability that f(xm+d is predicted incorrectly. Furthermore, if we let Bayes:+ 1 (x, I) (abbreviated Bayes:+ l (I) since x is fixed for now) be a random variable whose value is 1 if the Bayes algorithm predicts I(xm+d correctly and 0 otherwise, then it can be shown that the probability of a mistake for a random I is (2) Despite the optimality of the Bayes algorithm, it suffers the drawback that its hypothesis at any time m may not be a member of the target class F. (Here we 857 858 Haussler, Kearns, Opper, and Schapire define the hypothesis of an algorithm at time m to be the (possibly probabilistic) mapping j : X -+ {O, 1} obtained by letting j(x) be the prediction of the algorithm when Xm+l x.) This drawback is absent in our second learning algorithm, which we call the Gibbs algorithm [6]: = Given I(x!), ... , f(x m ), choose a hypothesis concept j randomly from Pm. Given X m+l, predict I(xm+d = j(xm+!). The Gibbs algorithm is the "zero-temperature" limit of the learning algorithm studied in several recent papers [2, 3, 8, 9]. If we let Gibbs~+l (x, I) (abbreviated Gibbs~+l (f) since x is fixed for now) be a random variable whose value is 1 if the Gibbs algorithm predicts f(xm+d correctly and 0 otherwise, then it can be shown that the probability of a mistake for a random f is (3) Note that by the definition of the Gibbs algorithm, Equation (3) is exactly the average probability of mistake of a consistent hypothesis, using the distribution on :F defined by the prior. Thus bounds on this expectation provide an interesting contrast to those obtained via VC dimension analysis, which always gives bounds on the probability of mistake of the worst consistent hypothesis. 4 THE MAIN INEQUALITY In this section we state one of our main results: a chain of inequalities that upper and lower bounds the expected error for both the Bayes and Gibbs ,algorithms by simple functions of the expected information gain. More precisely, using the characterizations of the expectations in terms of the volume ratio Xm+l (I) given by Equations (1), (2) and (3), we can prove the following, which we refer to as the main inequality: 1l- 1 (E/E'P[Im+1 (1))) < E/E'P [Bayes m+1 (I)] < E/E'P[Gibbsm+1 (f)] ~ ~E/E'P[Im+l(I)]. (4) = Here we have defined an inverse to the binary entropy function ll(p) -p log p (1 - p) log(1 - p) by letting 1l- 1(q), for q E [0,1]' be the unique p E [0,1/2] such that ll(p) q. Note that the bounds given depend on properties of the particular prior P, and on properties of the particular fixed sequence x . These upper and lower bounds are equal (and therefore tight) at both extremes E /E'P [Im+l (I)] 1 (maximal information gain) and E/E'P [I m +1 (f)] 0 (minimal information gain) . To obtain a weaker but perhaps more convenient lower bound, it can also be shown that there is a constant Co > 0 such that for all p > 0, 1l-1(p) 2:: cop/log(2/p). = = = Finally, if all that is wanted is a direct comparison of the performances of the Gibbs and Bayes algorithms, we can also show: Estimating Average-Case Learning C urves 5 THE MAIN INEQUALITY: CUMULATIVE VERSION In this section we state a cumulative version of the main inequality: namely, bounds on the expected cumulative number of mistakes made in the first m trials (rather than just the instantaneous expectations). First, for the cumulative information gain, it can be shown that EfE'P [L~l Li(f)] = EfE'P[-log Vm(f)]. This expression has a natural interpretation. The first m instances Xl, . .. , xm of x induce a partition II!:(x) of the concept class :F defined by II~(x) = II~ = {:Fm(x, f) : f E :F}. Note that III~I is always at most 2m , but may be considerably smaller, depending on the interaction between :F and Xl,? ?? ,X m? It is clear that EfE'P[-logVm(f)] L:7rEIF P[1I']1ogP[71']. Thus the expected cumulative information gained from the labels of Xl, .. . , Xm is simply the entropy of the partition II~ under the distribution P. We shall denote this entropy by 1i'P(II~(x)) = 1i'f;.(x) = 1i'f;.. Now analogous to the main inequality for the instantaneous case (Inequality (4)), we can show: =- log(2m/1i~) < mW' (~ 1l::') < E/E'P [t, :'0 E/E1' GibbSi(f)] :'0 [t. ~1l::' BayeSi(f)] (6) Here we have applied the inequality 1i-l(p) ~ cop/log(2/p) in order to give the lower bound in more convenient form. As in the instantaneous case, the upper and lower bounds here depend on properties of the particular P and x. When the cumulative information gain is maximum (1i'f;. = m), the upper and lower bounds are tight. These bounds on learning performance in terms of a partition entropy are of special importance to us, since they will form the crucial link between the Bayesian setting and the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension theory. 6 MOVING TO A WORST-CASE THEORY: BOUNDING THE INFORMATION GAIN BY THE VC DIMENSION Although we have given upper bounds on the expected cumulative number of mistakes for the Bayes and Gibbs algorithms in terms of 1i'f;.(x) , we are still left with the problem of evaluating this entropy, or at least obtaining reasonable upper bounds on it. We can intuitively see that the "worst case" for learning occurs when the partition entropy 1i'f;. (x) is as large as possible. In our context, the entropy is qualitatively maximized when two conditions hold: (1) the instance sequence x induces a partition of :F that is the largest possible, and (2) the prior P gives equal weight to each element of this partition. In this section, we move away from our Bayesian average-case setting to obtain worst-case bounds by formalizing these two conditions in terms of combinatorial parameters depending only on the concept class:F. In doing so, we form the link between the theory developed so far and the VC dimension theory. 859 860 Haussler, Kearns, Opper, and Schapire The second of the two conditions above is easily quantified. Since the entropy of a partition is at most the logarithm of the number of classes in it, a trivial upper bound on the entropy which holds for all priors P is 1l!(x) ~ log III~(x)l. VC dimension theory provides an upper bound on log III~(x)1 as follows. For any sequence x = Xl, X2, .?. of instances and for m ~ 1, let dimm(F, x) denote the largest d ~ 0 such that there exists a subsequence XiI' ... , Xiii of Xl, ... ,X m with 1II~((Xill ... ,xili))1 = 2d; that is, for every possible labeling of XiII ... ,Xili there is some target concept in F that gives this labeling. The Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension of F is defined by dim(F) = max{ dimm(F, x) : m ~ 1 and Xl, X2, .?? E X}. It can be shown [7, 10] that for all x and m ~ d ~ 1, log III~(x)1 ~ (1 + 0(1)) dimm(F, x) log d?lmm7 ) F,x where 0(1) is a quantity that goes to zero as Cl' (7) = m/dimm(F, x) goes to infinity. In all of our discussions so far, we have assumed that the instance sequence x is fixed in advance, but that the target concept f is drawn randomly according to P. We now move to the completely probabilistic model, in which f is drawn according to P, and each instance Xm in the sequence x is drawn randomly and independently according to a distribution V over the instance space X (this infinite sequence of draws from V will be denoted x E V*). Under these assumptions, it follows from Inequalities (6) and (7), and the observation above that 1l~(x) ~ log III~(x)1 that for any P and any V, EfEP,XE"? [t. Bayes,(x, f)] < EfEP,XE"? [t. Gibbs,(x, f)] < ~EXE'V. [log III~(x)1l < (1 + o(I))ExE'V. < (1 + 0(1)) [diffim~F, x) log dimm7F, x)] dim(F) m 2 log dim(F) (8) The expectation EXE'V. [log In~(x)1l is the VC entropy defined by Vapnik and Chervonenkis in their seminal paper on uniform convergence [11] . In terms of instantaneous mistake bounds, using more sophisticated techniques [4], we can show that for any P and any V, dimm(F, dim(F) (9) E /E 1',XE'V? [Bayesm(x, I)] ~ EXE'V? [ m ~ m X)] E IE1',XE'V? [G I?bb Sm (f)] x, E XE'V? [2 dimm(F, x)] 2 dim(F) (10) m Haussler, Littlestone and Warmuth [5] construct specific V, P and F for which the last bound given by Inequality (8) is tight to within a factor of 1/ In\2) ~ 1.44; thus this bound cannot be improved by more than this factor in general. Similarly, the ~ m ~ 1 It follows that the expected total number of mistakes of the Bayes and the Gibbs algorithms differ by a factor of at most about 1.44 in each of these cases; this was not previously known. Estimating Average-Case Learning Curves bound given by Inequality (9) cannot be improved by more than a factor of 2 in general. For specific V, P and F, however, it is possible to improve the general bounds given in Inequalities (8), (9) and (10) by more than the factors indicated above. We calculate the instantaneous mistake bounds for the Bayes and Gibbs algorithms in the natural case that F is the set of homogeneous linear threshold functions on R d and both the distribution V and the prior P on possible target concepts (represented also by vectors in Rd) are uniform on the unit sphere in Rd. This class has VC dimension d. In this case, under certain reasonable assumptions used in statistical mechanics, it can be shown that for m ~ d ~ I, 0.44d m (compared with the upper bound of dim given by Inequality (9) for any class of VC dimension d) and 0.62d m (compared with the upper bound of 2dlm in Inequality (10)). The ratio of these asymptotic bounds is J2. We can also show that this performance advantage of Bayes over Gibbs is quite robust even when P and V vary, and there is noise in the examples [6]. 7 OTHER RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We have a number of other results, and briefly describe here one that may be of particular interest to neural network researchers. In the case that the class F has infinite VC dimension (for instance, if F is the class of all multi-layer perceptrons of finite size), we can still obtain bounds on the number of cumulative mistakes by decomposing F into F 1 , F2, ... , F" ... , where each F, has finite VC dimension, and by decomposing the prior P over F as a linear sum P 2::1 aiP" where each Pi is an arbitrary prior over Fi, and 2::1 1. A typical decomposition might let Fi be all multi-layer perceptrons of a given architecture with at most i weights, in which case di O( i log i) [1]. Here we can show an upper bound on the cumulative mistakes during the first m examples of roughly 11 {ai} + [2::1 aidi] log m for both the Bayes and Gibbs algorithms, where 11{ad 2::1 ai log a,. The quantity 2::1 aid, plays the role of an "effective VC dimension" relative to the prior weights {a,}. In the case that x is also chosen randomly, we can bound the probability of mistake on the mth trial by roughly ~(11{ad + [2:~1 a,di)logm). = a, = = =- In our current research we are working on extending the basic theory presented here to the problems of learning with noise (see Opper and Haussler [6]), learning multi-valued functions, and learning with other loss functions. Perhaps the most important general conclusion to be drawn from the work presented here is that the various theories of learning curves based on diverse ideas from information theory, statistical physics and the VC dimension are all in fact closely related, and can be naturally and beneficially placed in a common Bayesian framework. 861 862 Haussler, Kearns, Opper, and Schapire Acknowledgements We are greatly indebted to Ron Rivest for his valuable suggestions and guidance, and to Sara Solla and Naft ali Tishby for insightful ideas in the early stages of this investigation. We also thank Andrew Barron, Andy Kahn, Nick Littlestone, Phil Long, Terry Sejnowski and Haim Sompolinsky for stimulating discussions on these topics. This research was supported by ONR grant NOOOI4-91-J-1162, AFOSR grant AFOSR-89-0506, ARO grant DAAL03-86-K-0171, DARPA contract NOOOI489-J-1988, and a grant from the Siemens Corporation. This research was conducted in part while M. Kearns was at the M.I.T. Laboratory for Computer Science and the International Computer Science Institute, and while R. Schapire was at the M.I.T. Laboratory for Computer Science and Harvard University. References [1] E. Baum and D. Haussler. What size net gives valid generalization? Neural Computation, 1(1):151-160, 1989. [2] J. Denker, D. Schwartz, B. Wittner, S. SoHa, R. Howard, L. Jackel, and J. Hopfield. Automatic learning, rule extraction and generalization . Complex Systems, 1:877-922, 1987. [3] G. Gyorgi and N. Tishby. Statistical theory of learning a rule. In Neural Networks and Spin Glasses. World Scientific, 1990. [4] D. Haussler, M. Kearns, and R. Schapire. Bounds on the sample complexity of Bayesian learning using information theory and the VC dimension. In Computational Learning Theory: Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Workshop. Morgan Kaufmann, 1991. [5] D. Haussler, N. Littlestone, and M. Warmuth. Predicting {O, 1}-functions on randomly drawn points. Technical Report UCSC-CRL-90-54, University of California Santa Cruz, Computer Research Laboratory, Dec. 1990. [6] M. Opper and D. Haussler. Calculation of the learning curve of Bayes optimal classification algorithm for learning a perceptron with noise. In Computational Learning Theory: Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Workshop. Morgan Kaufmann, 1991. [7] N. Sauer. On the density of families of sets. Journal of Combinatorial Theory (Series A), 13:145-147,1972. [8] H. Sompolinsky, N. Tishby, and H. Seung. Learning from examples in large neural networks. Physics Review Letters, 65:1683-1686, 1990. [9] N. Tishby, E. Levin, and S. Solla. Consistent inference of probabilities in layered networks: predictions and generalizations. In IJCNN International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, volume II, pages 403-409. IEEE, 1989. [10] V. N. Vapnik. Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data. SpringerVerlag, New York, 1982. [11] V. N. Vapnik and A. Y. Chervonenkis. On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities. Theory of Probability and its Applications, 16(2):264-80, 1971.
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Bayesian Inference and Online Experimental Design for Mapping Neural Microcircuits Ben Shababo ? Department of Biological Sciences Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 [email protected] Brooks Paige ? Department of Engineering Science University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PJ, UK [email protected] Ari Pakman Department of Statistics, Center for Theoretical Neuroscience, & Grossman Center for the Statistics of Mind Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 [email protected] Liam Paninski Department of Statistics, Center for Theoretical Neuroscience, & Grossman Center for the Statistics of Mind Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 [email protected] Abstract With the advent of modern stimulation techniques in neuroscience, the opportunity arises to map neuron to neuron connectivity. In this work, we develop a method for efficiently inferring posterior distributions over synaptic strengths in neural microcircuits. The input to our algorithm is data from experiments in which action potentials from putative presynaptic neurons can be evoked while a subthreshold recording is made from a single postsynaptic neuron. We present a realistic statistical model which accounts for the main sources of variability in this experiment and allows for significant prior information about the connectivity and neuronal cell types to be incorporated if available. Due to the technical challenges and sparsity of these systems, it is important to focus experimental time stimulating the neurons whose synaptic strength is most ambiguous, therefore we also develop an online optimal design algorithm for choosing which neurons to stimulate at each trial. 1 Introduction A major goal of neuroscience is the mapping of neural microcircuits at the scale of hundreds to thousands of neurons [1]. By mapping, we specifically mean determining which neurons synapse onto each other and with what weight. One approach to achieving this goal involves the simultaneous stimulation and observation of populations of neurons. In this paper, we specifically address the mapping experiment in which a set of putative presynaptic neurons are optically stimulated while an electrophysiological trace is recorded from a designated postsynaptic neuron. It should be noted that the methods we present are general enough that most stimulation and subthreshold monitoring technology would be well fit by our model with only minor changes. These types of experiments have been implemented with some success [2, 3, 6], yet there are several issues which prevent efficient, large scale mapping of neural microcircuitry. For example, while it has been shown that multiple neurons can be stimulated simultaneously [4, 5], successful mapping experiments have thus far only stimulated a single neuron per trial which increases experimental time [2, 3, 6]. Stimulating multiple neurons simultaneously and with high accuracy requires well-tuned hardware, and even then some level of stimulus uncertainty may remain. In addition, a large portion of connection ? These authors contributed equally to this work. 1 weights are small which has meant that determining these weights is difficult and that many trials must be performed. Due to the sparsity of neural connectivity, potentially useful trials are spent on unconnected pairs instead of refining weight estimates for connected pairs when the stimuli are chosen non-adaptively. In this paper, we address these issues by developing a procedure for sparse Bayesian inference and information-based experimental design which can reconstruct neural microcircuits accurately and quickly despite the issues listed above. 2 A realistic model of neural microcircuits In this section we propose a novel and thorough statistical model which is specific enough to capture most of the relevant variability in these types of experiments while being flexible enough to be used with many different hardware setups and biological preparations. 2.1 Stimulation In our experimental setup, at each trial, n = 1, . . . , N , the experimenter stimulates R of K possible presynaptic neurons. We represent the chosen set of neurons for each trial with the binary vector zn ? {0, 1}K , which has a one in each of the the R entries corresponding to the stimulated neurons on that trial. One of the difficulties of optical stimulation lies in the experimenter?s inability to stimulate a specific neuron without possibly failing to stimulate the target neuron or engaging other nearby neurons. In general, this is a result of the fact that optical excitation does not stimulate a single point in space but rather has a point spread function that is dependent on the hardware and the biological tissue. To complicate matters further, each neuron has a different rheobase (a measure of how much current is needed to generate an action potential) and expression level of the optogenetic protein. While some work has shown that it may be possible to stimulate exact sets of neurons, this setup requires very specific hardware and fine tuning [4, 5]. In addition, even if a neuron fires, there is some probability that synaptic transmission will not occur. Because these events are difficult or impossible to observe, we model this uncertainty by introducing a second binary vector xn ? {0, 1}K denoting the neurons that actually release neurotransmitter in trial n. The conditional distribution of xn given zn can be chosen by the experimenter to match their hardware settings and understanding of synaptic transmission rates in their preparation. 2.2 Sparse connectivity Numerous studies have collected data to estimate both connection probabilities and synaptic weight distributions as a function of distance and cell identity [2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12]. Generally, the data show that connectivity is sparse and that most synaptic weights are small with a heavy tail of strong connections. To capture the sparsity of neural connectivity, we place a ?spike-and-slab? prior on the synaptic weights wk [13, 14, 15], for each presynaptic neuron k = 1, . . . , K; these priors are designed to place non-zero probability on the event that a given weight wk is exactly zero. Note that we do not need to restrict the ?slab? distributions (the conditional distributions of wk given that wk is nonzero) to the traditional Gaussian choice, and in fact each weight can have its own parameters. For example, log-normal [12] or exponential [8, 10] distributions may be used in conjunction with information about cell type and location to assign highly informative priors 1 . 2.3 Postsynaptic response In our model a subthreshold response is measured from a designated postsynaptic neuron. Here we assume the measurement is a one-dimensional trace yn ? RT , where T is the number of samples in the trace. The postsynaptic response for each synaptic event in a given trial can be modeled using an appropriate template function fk (?) for each presynaptic neuron k. For this paper we use an alpha function to model the shape of each neuron?s contribution to the postsynaptic current, parameterized by time constants ?k which define the rise and decay time. As with the synaptic weight priors, the template functions could be designed based on the cells? identities. The onset of each postsynaptic 1 A cell?s identity can be general such as excitatory or inhibitory, or more specific such as VIP- or PVinterneurons. These identities can be identified by driving the optogenetic channel with a particular promotor unique to that cell type or by coexpressing markers for various cell types along with the optogenetic channel. 2 Presynaptic weights Location of presynaptic neurons and stimuli Weight 1 0 ?1 0 20 40 10 Current [pA] Neuron k 60 80 100 Postsynaptic current trace 0 ?10 ?20 ?30 0 50 100 Time [samples] 150 200 Figure 1: A schematic of the model experiment. The left figure shows the relative location of 100 presynaptic neurons; inhibitory neurons are shown in yellow, and excitatory neurons in purple. Neurons marked with a black outline have a nonzero connectivity to the postsynaptic neuron (shown as a blue star, in the center). The blue circles show the diffusion of the stimulus through the tissue. The true connectivity weights are shown on the upper right, with blue vertical lines marking the five neurons which were actually fired as a result of this stimulus. The resulting time series postsynaptic current trace is shown in the bottom right. The connected neurons which fired are circled in red, the triangle and star marking their weights and corresponding postsynaptic events in the plots at right. response may be jittered such that each event starts at some time dnk after t = 0, where the delays could be conditionally distributed on the parameters of the stimulation and cells. Finally, at each time step the signal is corrupted by zero mean Gaussian noise with variance ? 2 . This noise distribution is chosen for simplicity; however, the model could easily handle time-correlated noise. 2.4 Full definition of model The full model can be summarized by the likelihood  X  T N Y Y 2 N ynt wk xnk fk (t ? dnk , ?k ), ? p(Y|w, X, D) = n=1 t=1 (1) k with the general spike-and-slab prior p(?k ) = Bernoulli(ak ), N ?T p(wk |?k ) = ?k p(wk |?k = 1) + (1 ? ?k )?0 (wk ) N ?K (2a, 2b) N ?K where Y ? R , X ? {0, 1} , and D ? R are composed of the responses, latent neural activity, and delays, respectively; ?k is a binary variable indicating whether or not neuron k is connected. We restate that the key to this model is that it captures the main sources of uncertainty in the experiment while providing room for particulars regarding hardware and the anatomy and physiology of the system to be incorporated. To infer the marginal distribution of the synaptic weights, one can use standard Bayesian methods such as Gibbs sampling or variational inference, both of which are discussed below. An example set of neurons and connectivity weights, along with the set of stimuli and postsynaptic current trace for a single trial, is shown in Figure 1. 3 Inference Throughout the remainder of the paper, all simulated data is generated from the model presented above. As mentioned, any free hyperparameters or distribution choices can be chosen intelligently from empirical evidence. Biological parameters may be specific and chosen on a cell by cell basis or left general for the whole system. We show in our results that inference and optimal design still perform well when general priors are used. Details regarding data simulation as well as specific choices we make in our experiments are presented in Appendix A. 3 3.1 Charge as synaptic strength To reduce the space P over which we perform inference, we collapse the variables wk and ?k into a single variable ck = t wk fk (t ? dnk , ?k ) which quantifies the charge transfer during the synaptic event and can be used to define the strength of a connection. Integrating over time also eliminates any dependence on the delays dnk . In this context, we reparameterize the likelihood as a function of PT yn = t=0 ynt and ? = ?T 1/2 and the resulting likelihood is Y 2 p(y|X, c) = N (yn |x> (3) n c, ? ). n We found that na??ve MCMC sampling over the posterior of w, ? , ?, X, and D insufficiently explored the support and inference was unsuccessful. In this effort to make the inference procedure computationally tractable, we discard potentially useful temporal information in the responses. An important direction for future work is to experiment with samplers that can more efficiently explore the full posterior (e.g., using Wang-Landau or simulated tempering methods). 3.2 Gibbs sampling The reparameterized posterior p(c, ?, X|Z, y) can be inferred using a simple Gibbs sampler. We approximate the prior over c as a spike-and-slab with Gaussian slabs where the slabs could be truncated if the cells? excitatory or inhibitory identity is known. Each xnk can be sampled by computing the odds ratio, and following [15] we draw each ck , ?k from the joint distribution p(ck , ?k |Z, y, X, {cj , ?j |j 6= k}) by sampling first ?k from p(?k |Z, y, X, {cj |j 6= k}), then p(ck |Z, y, X, {cj , |j 6= k}, ?k ). 3.3 Variational Bayes As stated earlier we do not only want to recover the parameters of the system, but want to perform optimal experimental design, which is a closed-loop process. One essential aspect of the design procedure is that decisions must be returned to the experimenter quickly, on the order of a few seconds. This means that we must be able to perform inference of the posterior as well as choose the next stimulus extremely quickly. For realistically sized systems with hundred to thousands of neurons, Gibbs sampling will be too slow, and we have to explore other options for speeding up inference. To achieve this decrease in runtime, we approximate the posterior distribution of c and ? using a variational approach [16]. The use of variational inference for spike-and-slab regression models has been explored in [17, 18], and we follow their methods with some minor changes. If we, for now, assume that X is known and let the spike-and-slab prior on c have untruncated Gaussian slabs, then this variational approach finds the best fully-factorized approximation to the true posterior Y p(c, ?|x1:n , y1:n ) ? q(ck , ?k ) (4) k where the functional form of q(ck , ?k ) is itself restricted to a spike-and-slab distribution  ?k N (ck |?k , s2k ) if ?k = 1 q(ck , ?k ) = (1 ? ?k )?0 (ck ) otherwise. (5) The variational parameters ?k , ?k , sk for k = 1, . . . , K are found by minimizing the KL-divergence KL(q||p) between the left and right hand sides of Eq. 4 with respect to these values. As is the case with fully-factorized variational distributions, updating the posterior involves an iterative algorithm which cycles through the parameters for each factor. The factorized variational approximation is reasonable when the number of simultaneous stimuli, R, is small. Note that if we examine the posterior distributions of the weights Y Y  2 p(c|y, X) ? N (yn |x> ak N (ck |?k , ?k2 ) + (1 ? ak )?0 (ck ) (6) n c, ? ) n k we see that if each xn contains only one nonzero value then each factor in the likelihood is dependent on only one of the K weights and can be multiplied into the corresponding k th spike-and-slab. 4 Therefore, since the product of a spike-and-slab and a Gaussian is still a spike-and-slab, if we stimulate only one neuron at each trial then this posterior is also spike-and-slab, and the variational approximation becomes exact in this limit. Since we do not directly observe X, we must take the expectation of the variational parameters ?k , ?k , sk with respect to the distribution p(X|Z, y). We Monte Carlo approximate this integral in a manner similar to the approach used for integrating over the hyperparameters in [17]; however, here we further approximate by sampling over potential stimuli xnk from p(xnk = 1|zn ). In practice we will see this approximation suffices for experimental design, with the overall variational approach performing nearly as well for posterior weight reconstruction as Gibbs sampling from the true posterior. 4 Optimal experimental design The preparations needed to perform these type of experiments tend to be short-lived, and indeed, the very act of collecting data ? that is, stimulating and probing cells ? can compromise the health of the preparation further. Also, one may want to use the connectivity information to perform additional experiments. Therefore it becomes critical to complete the mapping phase of the experiment as quickly as possible. We are thus strongly motivated to optimize the experimental design: to choose the optimal subset of neurons zn to stimulate at each trial to minimize N , the overall number of trials required for good inference. The Bayesian approach to the optimization of experimental design has been explored in [19, 20, 21]. In this paper, we maximize the mutual information I(?; D) between the model parameters ? and the data D; however, other objective functions could be explored. Mutual information can be decomposed into a difference of entropies, one of which does not depend on the data. Therefore the optimization reduces to the intuitive objective of minimizing the posterior entropy with respect to the data. Because the previous data Dn?1 = {(z1 , y1 ), . . . , (zn?1 , yn?1 )} are fixed and yn is dependent on the stimulus zn , our problem is reduced to choosing the optimal next stimulus, denoted z?n , in expectation over yn , (7) z?n = arg max Eyn |zn [I(?; D)] = arg min Eyn |zn [H(?|D)] . zn zn 5 Experimental design procedure The optimization described in Section 4 entails performing a combinatorial optimization over zn , where for each zn we consider an expectation over all possible yn . In order to be useful to experimenters in an online setting, we must be able to choose the next stimulus in only one or two seconds. For any realistically sized system, an exact optimization is computationally infeasible; therefore in the following section we derive a fast method for approximating the objective function. 5.1 Computing the objective function The variational posterior distribution of ck , ?k can be used to characterize our general objective function described in Section 4. We define the cost function J to be the right-hand side of Equation 7, J ? Eyn |zn [H(c, ?|D)] (8) ? such that the optimal next stimulus zn can be found by minimizing J. We benefit immediately from the factorized approximation of the variational posterior, since we can rewrite the joint entropy as X H[c, ?|D] ? H[ck , ?k |D] (9) k allowing us to optimize over the sum of the marginal entropies instead of having to compute the (intractable) entropy over the full posterior. Using the conditional entropy identity H[ck , ?k |D] = H[ck |?k , D] + H[?k |D], we see that the entropy of each spike-and-slab is the sum of a weighted Gaussian entropy and a Bernoulli entropy and we can write out the approximate objective function as h? i X k,n J? Eyn |zn (1 + log(2?s2k,n )) ? ?k,n log ?k,n ? (1 ? ?k,n ) log(1 ? ?k,n ) . (10) 2 k 5 Here, we have introduced additional notation, using ?k,n , ?k,n , and sk,n to refer to the parameters of the variational posterior distribution given the data through trial n. Intuitively, we see that equation 10 represents a balance between minimizing the sparsity pattern entropy H[?k ] of each neuron and minimizing the weight entropy H[ck |?k = 1] proportional to the probability ?k that the presynaptic neuron is connected. As p(?k = 1) ? 1, the entropy of the Gaussian slab distribution grows to dominate. In algorithm behavior, we see when the probability that a neuron is connected increases, we spend time stimulating it to reduce the uncertainty in the corresponding nonzero slab distribution. To perform this optimization we must compute the expected joint entropy with respect to p(yn |zn ). For any particular candidate zn , this can be Monte Carlo approximated by first sampling yn from the posterior distribution p(yn |zn , c, Dn?1 ), where c is drawn from the variational posterior inferred at trial n ? 1. Each sampled yn may be used to estimate the variational parameters ?k,n and sk,n with which we evaluate H[ck , ?k ]; we average over these evaluations of the entropy from each sample to compute an estimate of J in Eq. 10. Once we have chosen z?n , we execute the actual trial and run the variational inference procedure on the full data to obtain the updated variational posterior parameters ?k,n , ?k,n , and sk,n which are needed for optimization. Once the experiment has concluded, Gibbs sampling can be run, though we found only a limited gain when comparing Gibbs sampling to variational inference. 5.2 Fast optimization The major cost to the algorithm is in the stimulus selection phase. It is not feasible to evaluate the right-hand side of equation 10 for every zn because as K grows there is a combinatorial explosion of possible stimuli. To avoid an exhaustive search over possible zn , we adopt a greedy approach for choosing which R of the K locations to stimulate. First we rank the K neurons based on an ?kn , each approximation of the objective function. To do this, we propose K hypothetical stimuli, z th all zeros except the k entry equal to 1 ? that is, we examine only the K stimuli which represent ? ?kn which stimulating a single location. We then set znk = 1 for the R neurons corresponding to the z ? give the smallest values for the objective function and all other entries of zn to zero. We found that the neurons selected by a brute force approach are most likely to be the neurons that the greedy selection process chooses (see Figure 1 in the Appendix). For large systems of neurons, even the above is too slow to perform in an online setting. For each of ?kn , to approximate the expected entropy we must compute the variational the K proposed stimuli z > ? n is the random variable ?> posterior for M samples of [X> n ] and L samples of yn (where x 1:n?1 x corresponding to p(? xn |? zn )). Therefore we run the variational inference procedure on the full data on the order of O(M KL) times at each trial. As the system size grows, running the variational inference procedure this many times becomes intractable because the number of iterations needed to converge the coordinate ascent algorithm is dependent on the correlations between the rows of X. This is implicitly dependent on both N , the number of trials, and R, the number of stimulus locations (see Figure 2 in the Appendix). Note that the stronger dependence here is on R; when R = 1 the variational parameter updates become exact and independent across the neurons, and therefore no coordinate ascent is necessary and the runtime becomes linear in K. We therefore take one last measure to speed up the optimization process by implementing an online Bayesian approach to updating the variational posterior (in the stimulus selection phase only). Since the variational posterior of ck and ?k takes the same form as the prior distribution, we can use the posterior from trial n ? 1 as the prior at trial n, allowing us to effectively summarize the previous data. In this online setting, when we stimulate only one neuron, only the parameters of that specific ? kn = z ?kn , this results in explicit neuron change. If during optimization we temporarily assume that x updates for each variational parameter, with no coordinate ascent iterations required. In total, the resulting optimization algorithm has a runtime O(KL) with no coordinate ascent algorithms needed. The combined accelerations described in this section result in a speed up of several orders of magnitude which allows the full inference and optimization procedure to be run in real time, running at approximately one second per trial in our computing environment for K = 500, R = 8. It is worth mentioning here that there are several points at which parallelization could be implemented in the full algorithm. We chose to parallelize over M which distributes the sampling of X and the running of variational inference for each sample. (Formulae and step-by-step implementation details are found in Appendix B.) 6 R =2 R =4 R =8 R =16 ? =1.0 NRE of E[c] 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 ? =2.5 NRE of E[c] 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 ? =5.0 NRE of E[c] 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0 200 400 trial, n 600 800 0 200 400 trial, n 600 800 0 200 400 trial, n 600 800 0 200 400 trial, n 600 800 Figure 2: A comparison of normalized reconstruction error (NRE) over 800 trials in a system with 500 neurons, between random stimulus selection (red, magenta) and our optimal experimental design approach (blue, cyan). The heavy red and blue lines indicate the results when running the Gibbs sampler at that point in the experiment, and the thinner magenta and cyan lines indicate the results from variational inference. Results are shown over three noise levels ? = 1, 2.5, 5, and for multiple numbers of stimulus locations per trial, R = 2, 4, 8, 16. Each plot shows the median and quartiles over 50 experiments. The error decreases much faster in the optimal design case, over a wide parameter range. 6 Experiments and results We ran our inference and optimal experimental design algorithm on data sets generated from the model described in Section 2. We benchmarked our optimal design algorithm against a sequence of randomly chosen stimuli, measuring performance by normalized reconstruction error, defined as kE[c] ? ck2 /kck2 ; we report the variation in our experiments by plotting the median and quartiles. Baseline results are shown in Figure 2, over a range of values for stimulations per trial R and baseline postsynaptic noise levels ?. The results here use an informative prior, where we assume the excitatory or inhibitory identity is known, and we set individual prior connectivity probabilities for each neuron based on that neuron?s identity and distance from the postsynaptic cell. We choose to let X be unobserved and let the stimuli Z produce Gaussian ellipsoids which excite neurons that are located nearby. All model parameters are given in Appendix A. We see that inference in general performs well. The optimal procedure was able to achieve equivalent reconstruction quality as a random stimulation paradigm in significantly fewer trials when the number of stimuli per trial and response noise were in an experimentally realistic range (R = 4 and ? = 2.5 being reasonable values). Interestingly, the approximate variational inference methods performed about as well as the full Gibbs sampler here (at much less computational cost), although Gibbs sampling seems to break down when R grows too large and the noise level is small, which may be a consequence of strong, local peaks in the posterior. As the the number of stimuli per trial R increases, we start to see improved weight estimates and faster convergence but a decrease in the relative benefit of optimal design; the random approach ?catches up? to the optimal approach as R becomes large. This is consistent with the results of [22], who argue that optimal design can provide only modest gains in performing sparse reconstructions, 7 General Prior X Observed 1.1 1.2 1 1 NRE of E[c] 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0 200 400 trial, n 600 800 0 200 400 trial, n 600 800 Figure 3: The results of inference and optimal design (A) with a single spike-andslab prior for all connections (prior connection probability of .1, and each slab Gaussian with mean 0 and standard deviation 31.4); and (B) with X observed. Both experiments show median and quartiles range with R = 4 and ? = 2.5. if the design vectors x are unconstrained. (Note that these results do not apply directly in our setting if R is small, since in this case x is constrained to be highly sparse ? and this is exactly where we see major gains from optimal online designs.) Finally, we see that we are still able to recover the synaptic strengths when we use a more general prior as in Figure 3A where we placed a single spike-and-slab prior across all the connections. Since we assumed the cells? identities were unknown, we used a zero-centered Gaussian for the slab and a prior connection probability of .1. While we allow for stimulus uncertainty, it will likely soon be possible to stimulate multiple neurons with high accuracy. In Figure 3B we see that - as expected performance improves. It is helpful to place this observation in the context of [23], which proposed a compressed-sensing algorithm to infer microcircuitry in experiments like those modeled here. The algorithms proposed by [23] are based on computing a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the weights w; note that to pursue the optimal Bayesian experimental design methods proposed here, it is necessary to compute (or approximate) the full posterior distribution, not just the MAP estimate. (See, e.g., [24] for a related discussion.) In the simulated experiments of [23], stimulating roughly 30 of 500 neurons per trial is found to be optimal; extrapolating from Fig. 2, we would expect a limited difference between optimal and random designs in this range of R. That said, large values of R lead to some experimental difficulties: first, stimulating large populations of neurons with high spatial resolution requires very fined tuned hardware (note that the approach of [23] has not yet been applied to experimental data, to our knowledge); second, if R is sufficiently large then the postsynaptic neuron can be easily driven out of a physiologically realistic regime, which in turn means that the basic linear-Gaussian modeling assumptions used here and in [23] would need to be modified. We plan to address these issues in more depth in our future work. 7 Future Work There are several improvements we would like to explore in developing this model and algorithm further. First, the implementation of an inference algorithm which performs well on the full model such that we can recover the synaptic weights, the time constants, and the delays would allow us to avoid compressing the responses to scalar values and recover more information about the system. Also, it may be necessary to improve the noise model as we currently assume that there are no spontaneous synaptic events which will confound the determination of each connection?s strength. Finally, in a recent paper, [25], a simple adaptive compressive sensing algorithm was presented which challenges the results of [22]. It would be worth exploring whether their algorithm would be applicable to our problem. Acknowledgements This material is based upon work supported by, or in part by, the U. S. Army Research Laboratory and the U. S. Army Research Office under contract number W911NF-12-1-0594 and an NSF CAREER grant. We would also like to thank Rafael Yuste and Jan Hirtz for helpful discussions, and our anonymous reviewers. 8 References [1] R. Reid, ?From Functional Architecture to Functional Connectomics,? Neuron, vol. 75, pp. 209?217, July 2012. [2] M. Ashby and J. 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Sparse Overlapping Sets Lasso for Multitask Learning and its Application to fMRI Analysis Nikhil S. Rao? [email protected] Christopher R. Cox# [email protected] Robert D. Nowak? [email protected] ? Timothy T. Rogers# [email protected] Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, # Department of Psychology University of Wisconsin- Madison Abstract Multitask learning can be effective when features useful in one task are also useful for other tasks, and the group lasso is a standard method for selecting a common subset of features. In this paper, we are interested in a less restrictive form of multitask learning, wherein (1) the available features can be organized into subsets according to a notion of similarity and (2) features useful in one task are similar, but not necessarily identical, to the features best suited for other tasks. The main contribution of this paper is a new procedure called Sparse Overlapping Sets (SOS) lasso, a convex optimization that automatically selects similar features for related learning tasks. Error bounds are derived for SOSlasso and its consistency is established for squared error loss. In particular, SOSlasso is motivated by multisubject fMRI studies in which functional activity is classified using brain voxels as features. Experiments with real and synthetic data demonstrate the advantages of SOSlasso compared to the lasso and group lasso. 1 Introduction Multitask learning exploits the relationships between several learning tasks in order to improve performance, which is especially useful if a common subset of features are useful for all tasks at hand. The group lasso (Glasso) [19, 8] is naturally suited for this situation: if a feature is selected for one task, then it is selected for all tasks. This may be too restrictive in many applications, and this motivates a less rigid approach to multitask feature selection. Suppose that the available features can be organized into overlapping subsets according to a notion of similarity, and that the features useful in one task are similar, but not necessarily identical, to those best suited for other tasks. In other words, a feature that is useful for one task suggests that the subset it belongs to may contain the features useful in other tasks (Figure 1). In this paper, we introduce the sparse overlapping sets lasso (SOSlasso), a convex program to recover the sparsity patterns corresponding to the situations explained above. SOSlasso generalizes lasso [16] and Glasso, effectively spanning the range between these two well-known procedures. SOSlasso is capable of exploiting the similarities between useful features across tasks, but unlike Glasso it does not force different tasks to use exactly the same features. It produces sparse solutions, but unlike lasso it encourages similar patterns of sparsity across tasks. Sparse group lasso [14] is a special case of SOSlasso that only applies to disjoint sets, a significant limitation when features cannot be easily partitioned, as is the case of our motivating example in fMRI. The main contribution of this paper is a theoretical analysis of SOSlasso, which also covers sparse group lasso as a special case (further differentiating us from [14]). The performance of SOSlasso is analyzed, error 1 bounds are derived for general loss functions, and its consistency is shown for squared error loss. Experiments with real and synthetic data demonstrate the advantages of SOSlasso relative to lasso and Glasso. 1.1 Sparse Overlapping Sets SOSlasso encourages sparsity patterns that are similar, but not identical, across tasks. This is accomplished by decomposing the features of each task into groups G1 . . . GM , where M is the same for each task, and Gi is a set of features that can be considered similar across tasks. Conceptually, SOSlasso first selects subsets that are most useful for all tasks, and then identifies a unique sparse solution for each task drawing only from features in the selected subsets. In the fMRI application discussed later, the subsets are simply clusters of adjacent spatial data points (voxels) in the brains of multiple subjects. Figure 1 shows an example of the patterns that typically arise in sparse multitask learning applications, where rows indicate features and columns correspond to tasks. Past work has focused on recovering variables that exhibit within and across group sparsity, when the groups do not overlap [14], finding application in genetics, handwritten character recognition [15] and climate and oceanography [2]. Along related lines, the exclusive lasso [21] can be used when it is explicitly known that variables in certain sets are negatively correlated. (a) Sparse (b) Group sparse (c) Group sparse plus sparse (d) Group sparse and sparse Figure 1: A comparison of different sparsity patterns. (a) shows a standard sparsity pattern. An example of group sparse patterns promoted by Glasso [19] is shown in (b). In (c), we show the patterns considered in [6]. Finally, in (d), we show the patterns we are interested in this paper. 1.2 fMRI Applications In psychological studies involving fMRI, multiple participants are scanned while subjected to exactly the same experimental manipulations. Cognitive Neuroscientists are interested in identifying the patterns of activity associated with different cognitive states, and construct a model of the activity that accurately predicts the cognitive state evoked on novel trials. In these datasets, it is reasonable to expect that the same general areas of the brain will respond to the manipulation in every participant. However, the specific patterns of activity in these regions will vary, both because neural codes can vary by participant [4] and because brains vary in size and shape, rendering neuroanatomy only an approximate guide to the location of relevant information across individuals. In short, a voxel useful for prediction in one participant suggests the general anatomical neighborhood where useful voxels may be found, but not the precise voxel. While logistic Glasso [17], lasso [13], and the elastic net penalty [12] have been applied to neuroimaging data, these methods do not exclusively take into account both the common macrostructure and the differences in microstructure across brains. SOSlasso, in contrast, lends itself well to such a scenario, as we will see from our experiments. 1.3 Organization The rest of the paper is organized as follows: in Section 2, we outline the notations that we will use and formally set up the problem. We also introduce the SOSlasso regularizer. We derive certain key properties of the regularizer in Section 3. In Section 4, we specialize the problem to the multitask linear regression setting (2), and derive consistency rates for the same, leveraging ideas from [9]. We outline experiments performed on simulated data in Section 5. In this section, we also perform logistic regression on fMRI data, and argue that the use of the SOSlasso yields interpretable multivariate solutions compared to Glasso and lasso. 2 2 Sparse Overlapping Sets Lasso We formalize the notations used in the sequel. Lowercase and uppercase bold letters indicate vectors and matrices respectively. We assume a multitask learning framework, with a data matrix ?t ? Rn?p for each task t ? {1, 2, . . . , T }. We assume there exists a vector x?t ? Rp such that measurements obtained are of the form yt = ?t x?t + ?t ?t ? N (0, ? 2 I). Let X ? := [x?1 x?2 . . . x?T ] ? Rp?T . Suppose we are given M (possibly overlapping) groups ?1, G ?2, . . . , G ? M }, so that G ? i ? {1, 2, . . . , p} ?i, of maximum size B. These groups contain G? = {G sets of ?similar? features, the notion of similarity being application dependent. We assume that all but k  M groups are identically zero. Among the active groups, we further assume that at most only a fraction ? ? (0, 1) of the coefficients per group are non zero. We consider the following optimization program in this paper ( T ) X ? L? (xt ) + ?n h(x) X = arg min (1) x t t=1 where x = [xT1 xT2 . . . xTT ]T , h(x) is a regularizer and Lt := L?t (xt ) denotes the loss function, whose value depends on the data matrix ?t . We consider least squares and logistic loss functions. In 1 the least squares setting, we have Lt = 2n kyt ? ?t xt k2 . We reformulate the optimization problem (1) with the least squares loss as   1 b = arg min x ky ? ?xk22 + ?n h(x) (2) x 2n where y = [y1T y2T . . . yTT ]T and the block diagonal matrix ? is formed by block concatenating the ?0t s. We use this reformulation for ease of exposition (see also [8] and references therein). Note that x ? RT p , y ? RT n , and ? ? RT n?T p . We also define G = {G1 , G2 , . . . , GM } to be the ? so that set of groups defined on RT p formed by aggregating the rows of X that were originally in G, x is composed of groups G ? G. We next define a regularizer h that promotes sparsity both within and across overlapping sets of similar features: X X h(x) = inf (?G kwG k2 + kwG k1 ) s.t. wG = x (3) W G?G G?G where the ?G > 0 are constants that balance the tradeoff between the group norms and the `1 norm. Each wG has the same size as x, with support restricted to the variables indexed by group G. W is a set of vectors, where each vector has a support restricted to one of the groups G ? G: W = {wG ? RT p | [wG ]i = 0 if i ? / G} where [wG ]i is the ith coefficient of wG . The SOSlasso is the optimization in (1) with h(x) as defined in (3). We say the set of vectors wG is an optimal decomposition of x if they achieve the inf in (3). The objective function in (3) is convex and coercive. Hence, ?x, an optimal decomposition always exists. As the ?G ? ? the `1 term becomes redundant, reducing h(x) to the overlapping group lasso penalty introduced in [5], and studied in [10, 11]. When the ?G ? 0, the overlapping group lasso term vanishes and h(x) reduces to the lasso penalty. We consider ?G = 1 ?G. All the results in the paper can be easily modified to incorporate different settings for the ?G . P P Support Values kxk1 G kxG k2 G (kxG k2 + kxG k1 ) {1, 4, 9} {3, 4, 7} 12 14 26 {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} {2, 5, 2, 4, 5} 8.602 18 26.602 {1, 3, 4} {3, 4, 7} 8.602 14 22.602 Table 1: Different instances of a 10-d vector and their corresponding norms. The example in Table 1 gives an insight into the kind of sparsity patterns preferred by the function h(x). The optimization problems (1) and (2) will prefer solutions that have a small value of h(?). 3 Consider 3 instances of x ? R10 , and the corresponding group lasso, `1 , and h(x) function values. The vector is assumed to be made up of two groups, G1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and G2 = {6, 7, 8, 9, 10}. h(x) is smallest when the support set is sparse within groups, and also when only one of the two groups is selected. The `1 norm does not take into account sparsity across groups, while the group lasso norm does not take into account sparsity within groups. To solve (1) and (2) with the regularizer proposed in (3), we use the covariate duplication method of [5], to reduce the problem to a non overlapping sparse group lasso problem. We then use proximal point methods [7] in conjunction with the MALSAR [20] package to solve the optimization problem. 3 Error Bounds for SOSlasso with General Loss Functions We derive certain key properties of the regularizer h(?) in (3), independent of the loss function used. Lemma 3.1 The function h(x) in (3) is a norm The proof follows from basic properties of norms and because if wG , vG are optimal decompositions of x, y, then it does not imply that wG + vG is an optimal decomposition of x + y. For a detailed proof, please refer to the supplementary material. The dual norm of h(x) can be bounded as h? (u) = max{xT u} s.t. h(x) ? 1 x X X T = max{ wG uG } s.t. (kwG k2 + kwG k1 ) ? 1 W G?G (i) ? max{ W = max{ W X G?G T wG uG } s.t. G?G X X 2kwG k2 ? 1 G?G T wG uG } s.t. X G?G G?G kwG k2 ? 1 2 1 ? h? (u) ? max kuG k2 (4) G?G 2 (i) follows from the fact that the constraint set in (i) is a superset of the constraint set in the previous statement, since kak2 ? kak1 . (4) follows from noting that the maximum is obtained by setting uG? , where G? = arg maxG?G kuG k2 . The inequality (4) is far more tractable than wG? = 2ku G ? k2 the actual dual norm, and will be useful in our derivations below. Since h(?) is a norm, we can apply methods developed in [9] to derive consistency rates for the optimization problems (1) and (2). We will use the same notations as in [9] wherever possible. Definition 3.2 A norm h(?) is decomposable with respect to the subspace pair sA ? sB if h(a + b) = h(a) + h(b) ?a ? sA, b ? sB ? . Lemma 3.3 Let x? ? Rp be a vector that can be decomposed into (overlapping) groups with withingroup sparsity. Let G ? ? G be the set of active groups of x? . Let S = supp(x? ) indicate the support set of x. Let sA be the subspace spanned by the coordinates indexed by S, and let sB = sA. We then have that the norm in (3) is decomposable with respect to sA, sB The result follows in a straightforward way from noting that supports of decompositions for vectors in sA and sB ? do not overlap. We defer the proof to the supplementary material. Definition 3.4 Given a subspace sB, the subspace compatibility constant with respect to a norm k k is given by   h(x) ?x ? sB\{0} ?(B) = sup kxk Lemma 3.5 Consider a vector x that can be decomposed into G ? ? G active groups. Suppose the maximum group size is B, and also assume that a fraction ? ? (0, 1) of the coordinates in each active group is non zero. Then, p ? h(x) ? (1 + B?) |G ? |kxk2 4 P Proof For any vector x with supp(x) ? G ? , there exists a representation x = G?G ? wG , such that the supports of the different wG do not overlap. Then, X X p ? ? h(x) ? (kwG k2 + kwG k1 ) ? (1 + B?) kwG k2 ? (1 + B?) |G ? |kxk2 G?G ? G?G ? p ? We see that (1 + B?) |G ? | (Lemma 3.5) gives an upper bound on the subspace compatibility constant with respect to the `2 norm for the subspace indexed by the support of the vector, which is contained in the span of the union of groups in G ? . Definition 3.6 For a given set S, and given vector x? , the loss function L? (x) satisfies the Restricted Strong Convexity(RSC) condition with parameter ? and tolerance ? if L? (x? + ?) ? L? (x? ) ? h?L? (x? ), ?i ? ?k?k22 ? ? 2 (x? ) ?? ? S In this paper, we consider vectors x? that lie exactly in k  M groups, and display within-group sparsity. This implies that the tolerance ? (x? ) = 0, and we will ignore this term henceforth. We also define the following set, which will be used in the sequel: C(sA, sB, x? ) := {? ? Rp |h(?sB ? ?) ? 3h(?sB ?) + 4h(?sA? x? )} (5) where ?sA (?) denotes the projection onto the subspace sA. Based on the results above, we can now apply a result from [9] to the SOSlasso: Theorem 3.7 (Corollary 1 in [9]) Consider a convex and differentiable loss function such that RSC holds with constants ? and ? = 0 over (5), and a norm h(?) decomposable over sets sA and sB. For the optimization program in (1), using the parameter ?n ? 2h? (?L? (x? )), any optimal solution ? ?n to (1) satisfies x 9?2 kb x?n ? x? k2 ? n ?2 (sB) ? The result above shows a general bound on the error using the lasso with sparse overlapping sets. Note that the regularization parameter ?n as well as the RSC constant ? depend on the loss function L? (x). Convergence for logistic regression settings may be derived using methods in [1]. In the next section, we consider the least squares loss (2), and show that the estimate using the SOSlasso is consistent. 4 Consistency of SOSlasso with Squared Error Loss We first need to bound the dual norm of the gradient of the loss function, so as to bound ?n . Consider 1 L := L? (x) = 2n ky ? ?xk2 . The gradient of the loss function with respect to x is given by 1 T ?L = n ? (?x ? y) = n1 ?T ? where ? = [?1T ?2T . . . ?TT ]T (see Section 2). Our goal now is to find an upper bound on the quantity h? (?L), which from (4) is 1 1 max k?LG k2 = max k?TG ?k2 2 G?G 2n G?G where ?G is the matrix ? restricted to the columns indexed by the group G. We will prove an upper bound for the above quantity in the course of the results that follow. Since ? ? N (0, ? 2 I), we have ?TG ? ? ?N (0, ?TG ?G ). Defining ?mG := ?max {?TG ?G } to be 2 the maximum singular value, we have k?TG ?k22 ? ? 2 ?mG k?k22 , where ? ? N (0, I|G| ) ? k?k22 ? ?2|G| , where ?2d is a chi-squared random variable with d degrees of freedom. This allows us to work with the more tractable chi squared random variable when we look to bound the dual norm of ?L. The next lemma helps us obtain a bound on the maximum of ?2 random variables. Lemma 4.1 Let z1 , z2 , . . . , zM be chi-squared random variables with d degrees of freedom. Then for some constant c,     (c ? 1)2 d 2 P max zi ? c d ? 1 ? exp log(M ) ? i=1,2,...,M 2 5   2 d Proof From the chi-squared tail bound in [3], P(zi ? c2 d) ? exp ? (c?1) . The result follows 2 from a union bound and inverting the expression. PT 1 1 2 2 Lemma 4.2 Consider the loss function L := 2n t=1 kyt ? ?t xt k = 2n ky ? ?xk , with the 0 2 ?t s deterministic and the measurements corrupted with AWGN of variance ? . For the regularizer in (3), the dual norm of the gradient of the loss function is bounded as 2 ? 2 ?m (log(M ) + T B) 4 n with probability at least 1 ? c1 exp(?c2 n), for c1 , c2 > 0, and where ?m = maxG?G ?mG h? (?L)2 ? Proof Let ? ? ?2T |G| . We begin with the upper bound obtained for the dual norm of the regularizer in (4): (i) 1 1 T 2 ?2 ?2 ? ? 2 ? max mG h (?L) ? max ?G ? 4 G?G n 4 G?G n2 2   2 (ii) ? 2 ? 2 ? (iii) ? 2 ?m (cn ? 1)2 T B m ? max 2 ? c2 T B w. p. 1 ? exp log(M ) ? 4 G?G n 4 2 where (i) follows from the formulation of the gradient of the loss function and the fact that the square of maximum of non negative numbers is the maximum of the squares of the same numbers. In (ii), we have defined ?m = maxG ?mG . Finally, we have made use of Lemma 4.1 in (iii). We then set log(M ) + T B c2 = T Bn to obtain the result. We combine the results developed so far to derive the following consistency result for the SOS lasso, with the least squares loss function. Theorem 4.3 Suppose we obtain linear measurements of a sparse overlapping grouped matrix X ? ? Rp?T , corrupted by AWGN of variance ? 2 . Suppose the matrix X ? can be decomposed into M possible overlapping groups of maximum size B, out of which k are active. Furthermore, assume that a fraction ? ? (0, 1] of the coefficients are non zero in each active group. Consider the following vectorized SOSlasso multitask regression problem (2):   1 2 b = arg min ky ? ?xk2 + ?n h(x) , x x 2n X X h(x) = inf (kwG k2 + kwG k1 ) s.t. wG = x W G?G G?G Suppose the data matrices ?t are non random, and the loss function satisfies restricted strong 2 ? 2 ?m (log(M )+T B) , the following holds convexity assumptions with parameter ?. Then, for ?n ? 4n with probability at least 1 ? c1 exp(?c2 n), with c1 , c2 > 0:  2 ? 2 2 ? ? 1 + T B? k(log(M ) + T B) m 9 kb x ? x? k2 ? 4 n? where we define ?m := maxG?G ?max {?TG ?G } Proof Follows from substituting in Theorem 3.7 the results from Lemma 3.5 and Lemma 4.2. From [9], we see that the convergence rate matches that of the group lasso, with an additional multiplicative factor ?. This stems from the fact that the signal has a sparse structure ?embedded? within a group sparse structure. Visualizing the optimization problem as that of solving a lasso within a group lasso framework lends some intuition into this result. Note that since ? < 1, this bound is much smaller than that of the standard group lasso. 6 5 Experiments and Results 5.1 Synthetic data, Gaussian Linear Regression For T = 20 tasks, we define a N = 2002 element vector divided into M = 500 groups of size B = 6. Each group overlaps with its neighboring groups (G1 = {1, 2, . . . , 6}, G2 = {5, 6, . . . , 10}, G3 = {9, 10, . . . , 14}, . . . ). 20 of these groups were activated uniformly at random, and populated from a uniform [?1, 1] distribution. A proportion ? of these coefficients with largest magnitude 1 were retained as true signal. For each task, we obtain 250 linear measurements using a N (0, 250 I) matrix. We then corrupt each measurement with Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN), and assess signal recovery in terms of Mean Squared Error (MSE). The regularization parameter was clairvoyantly picked to minimize the MSE over a range of parameter values. The results of applying lasso, standard latent group lasso [5, 10], and our SOSlasso to these data are plotted in Figures 2(a), varying ?, ? = 0.2, and 2(b), varying ?, ? = 0.1. Each point in Figures 2(a) and 2(b), is the average of 100 trials, where each trial is based on a new random instance of X ? and the Gaussian data matrices. 0.02 0.015 Glasso SOSlasso lasso Glasso SOSlasso 0.015 MSE MSE 0.01 0.01 0.005 0.005 0 0 0.05 0.1 ? 0.15 (a) Varying ? 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1?? (b) Varying ? (c) Sample pattern Figure 2: As the noise is increased (a), our proposed penalty function (SOSlasso) allows us to recover the true coefficients more accurately than the group lasso (Glasso). Also, when alpha is large, the active groups are not sparse, and the standard overlapping group lasso outperforms the other methods. However, as ? reduces, the method we propose outperforms the group lasso (b). (c) shows a toy sparsity pattern, with different colors denoting different overlapping groups 5.2 The SOSlasso for fMRI In this experiment, we compared SOSlasso, lasso, and Glasso in analysis of the star-plus dataset [18]. 6 subjects made judgements that involved processing 40 sentences and 40 pictures while their brains were scanned in half second intervals using fMRI1 . We retained the 16 time points following each stimulus, yielding 1280 measurements at each voxel. The task is to distinguish, at each point in time, which stimulus a subject was processing. [18] showed that there exists cross-subject consistency in the cortical regions useful for prediction in this task. Specifically, experts partitioned each dataset into 24 non overlapping regions of interest (ROIs), then reduced the data by discarding all but 7 ROIs and, for each subject, averaging the BOLD response across voxels within each ROI and showed that a classifier trained on data from 5 subjects generalized when applied to data from a 6th. We assessed whether SOSlasso could leverage this cross-individual consistency to aid in the discovery of predictive voxels without requiring expert pre-selection of ROIs, or data reduction, or any alignment of voxels beyond that existing in the raw data. Note that, unlike [18], we do not aim to learn a solution that generalizes to a withheld subject. Rather, we aim to discover a group sparsity pattern that suggests a similar set of voxels in all subjects, before optimizing a separate solution for each individual. If SOSlasso can exploit cross-individual anatomical similarity from this raw, coarsely-aligned data, it should show reduced cross-validation error relative to the lasso applied separately to each individual. If the solution is sparse within groups and highly variable across individuals, SOSlasso should show reduced cross-validation error relative to Glasso. Finally, if SOSlasso is finding useful cross-individual structure, the features it selects should align at least somewhat with the expert-identified ROIs shown by [18] to carry consistent information. 1 Data and documentation available at http://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs.cmu.edu/project/theo-81/www/ 7 R Figure 3: Results from fMRI experiments. (a) Aggregated sparsity patterns for a single brain slice. (b) Crossvalidation error obtained with each method. Lines connect data for a single subject. (c) The full sparsity pattern obtained with SOSlasso. lasso 0.36 0.34 Error 0.32 0.3 0.28 Glasso 0.26 0.24 lasso Glasso SOSlasso SOSlasso (b) (a) Picture only Sentence only Picture and Sentence (c) Method % ROI t(5) , p lasso 46.11 6.08 ,0.001 Glasso 50.89 5.65 ,0.002 SOSlasso 70.31 Table 2: Proportion of selected voxels in the 7 relevant ROIS aggregated over subjects, and corresponding two-tailed significance levels for the contrast of lasso and Glasso to SOSlasso. We trained 3 classifiers using 4-fold cross validation to select the regularization parameter, considering all available voxels without preselection. We group regions of 5 ? 5 ? 1 voxels and considered overlapping groups ?shifted? by 2 voxels in the first 2 dimensions.2 Figure 3(b) shows the individual error rates across the 6 subjects for the three methods. Across subjects, SOSlasso had a significantly lower cross-validation error rate (27.47 %) than individual lasso (33.3 %; within-subjects t(5) = 4.8; p = 0.004 two-tailed), showing that the method can exploit anatomical similarity across subjects to learn a better classifier for each. SOSlasso also showed significantly lower error rates than glasso (31.1 %; t(5) = 2.92; p = 0.03 two-tailed), suggesting that the signal is sparse within selected regions and variable across subjects. Figure 3(a) presents a sample of the the sparsity patterns obtained from the different methods, aggregated over all subjects. Red points indicate voxels that contributed positively to picture classification in at least one subject, but never to sentences; Blue points have the opposite interpretation. Purple points indicate voxels that contributed positively to picture and sentence classification in different subjects. The remaining slices for the SOSlasso are shown in Figure 3(c). There are three things to note from Figure 3(a). First, the Glasso solution is fairly dense, with many voxels signaling both picture and sentence across subjects. We believe this ?purple haze? demonstrates why Glasso is illsuited for fMRI analysis: a voxel selected for one subject must also be selected for all others. This approach will not succeed if, as is likely, there exists no direct voxel-to-voxel correspondence or if the neural code is variable across subjects. Second, the lasso solution is less sparse than the SOSlasso because it allows any task-correlated voxel to be selected. It leads to a higher cross-validation error, indicating that the ungrouped voxels are inferior predictors (Figure 3(b)). Third, the SOSlasso not only yields a sparse solution, but also clustered. To assess how well these clusters align with the anatomical regions thought a-priori to be involved in sentence and picture representation, we calculated the proportion of selected voxels falling within the 7 ROIs identified by [18] as relevant to the classification task (Table 2). For SOSlasso an average of 70% of identified voxels fell within these ROIs, significantly more than for lasso or Glasso. 6 Conclusions and Extensions We have introduced SOSlasso, a function that recovers sparsity patterns that are a hybrid of overlapping group sparse and sparse patterns when used as a regularizer in convex programs, and proved its theoretical convergence rates when minimizing least squares. The SOSlasso succeeds in a multitask fMRI analysis, where it both makes better inferences and discovers more theoretically plausible brain regions that lasso and Glasso. Future work involves experimenting with different parameters for the group and l1 penalties, and using other similarity groupings, such as functional connectivity in fMRI. 2 The irregular group size compensates for voxels being larger and scanner coverage being smaller in the z-dimension (only 8 slices relative to 64 in the x- and y-dimensions). 8 References [1] Francis Bach. Adaptivity of averaged stochastic gradient descent to local strong convexity for logistic regression. arXiv preprint arXiv:1303.6149, 2013. [2] S. Chatterjee, A. Banerjee, and A. Ganguly. Sparse group lasso for regression on land climate variables. In Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW), 2011 IEEE 11th International Conference on, pages 1?8. IEEE, 2011. [3] S. Dasgupta, D. Hsu, and N. Verma. arXiv:1206.6813, 2012. A concentration theorem for projections. arXiv preprint [4] Eva Feredoes, Giulio Tononi, and Bradley R Postle. The neural bases of the short-term storage of verbal information are anatomically variable across individuals. The Journal of Neuroscience, 27(41):11003? 11008, 2007. [5] L. Jacob, G. Obozinski, and J. P. Vert. Group lasso with overlap and graph lasso. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 433?440. ACM, 2009. [6] A. Jalali, P. Ravikumar, S. Sanghavi, and C. Ruan. A dirty model for multi-task learning. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 23:964?972, 2010. [7] R. Jenatton, J. Mairal, G. Obozinski, and F. Bach. Proximal methods for hierarchical sparse coding. arXiv preprint arXiv:1009.2139, 2010. [8] K. Lounici, M. Pontil, A. B. Tsybakov, and S. van de Geer. Taking advantage of sparsity in multi-task learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:0903.1468, 2009. [9] S. N. Negahban, P. Ravikumar, M. J Wainwright, and Bin Yu. A unified framework for high-dimensional analysis of m-estimators with decomposable regularizers. Statistical Science, 27(4):538?557, 2012. [10] G. Obozinski, L. Jacob, and J.P. Vert. Group lasso with overlaps: The latent group lasso approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:1110.0413, 2011. [11] N. Rao, B. Recht, and R. Nowak. Universal measurement bounds for structured sparse signal recovery. In Proceedings of AISTATS, volume 2102, 2012. [12] Irina Rish, Guillermo A Cecchia, Kyle Heutonb, Marwan N Balikic, and A Vania Apkarianc. Sparse regression analysis of task-relevant information distribution in the brain. In Proceedings of SPIE, volume 8314, page 831412, 2012. [13] Srikanth Ryali, Kaustubh Supekar, Daniel A Abrams, and Vinod Menon. Sparse logistic regression for whole brain classification of fmri data. NeuroImage, 51(2):752, 2010. [14] N. Simon, J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. A sparse-group lasso. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, (just-accepted), 2012. [15] P. Sprechmann, I. Ramirez, G. Sapiro, and Y. Eldar. Collaborative hierarchical sparse modeling. In Information Sciences and Systems (CISS), 2010 44th Annual Conference on, pages 1?6. IEEE, 2010. [16] Robert Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), pages 267?288, 1996. [17] Marcel van Gerven, Christian Hesse, Ole Jensen, and Tom Heskes. Interpreting single trial data using groupwise regularisation. NeuroImage, 46(3):665?676, 2009. [18] X. Wang, T. M Mitchell, and R. Hutchinson. Using machine learning to detect cognitive states across multiple subjects. CALD KDD project paper, 2003. [19] M. Yuan and Y. Lin. Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68(1):49?67, 2006. [20] J. Zhou, J. Chen, and J. Ye. Malsar: Multi-task learning via structural regularization, 2012. [21] Y. Zhou, R. Jin, and S. C. Hoi. Exclusive lasso for multi-task feature selection. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2010. 9
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