The Efficient Utilization Of Open Source Information

Samuel R. Baty A-2, Intelligence & Systems Analysis August 11, 2016 UNCLASSIFIED LA-UR-16-26273

Primary Considerations

Open source information consists of a vast set of information from a variety of sources.
World news - Unclassified documents and reports - Maps and Satellite imagery - Patents, scientific papers etc.
Not only does the quantity of open source information pose a problem, the quality of such information can hinder efforts.
Usually difficult to verify

In many cases, limitations in content prevents analysts from finding an exact answer to a question.
One important problem solving strategy is to bound a system's capability or technologies.
By using additional valuable information, more refined bounds can be built, allowing for more precise estimates.
Two example problems are found in examinations of Iran and North Korea

Consider the Iranian space program.
Iran has demonstrated a satellite launch capability using the domestically produced Safir rocket family.
Given the success of Safir launches, could Iran utilize or modify existing satellite launch vehicles (SLVs) into ICBMs?
What are key factors to consider when analyzing a ballistic missile?
Size of deliverable
Range
Using these parameters, a v for the missile system can be defined for a given mass.
What is a good estimate for the mass of a reentry vehicle (RV)?
How can we arrive at that estimation? Selection of US RVs (L to R: Mk 6, Mk 12a, Mk 21). Not great analogies for a first Iranian RV (3,4,5).

UNCLASSIFIED

We can estimate materials and sub-systems, using relatively small (in volume) US systems.
Safing, arming, fuzing, firing (SAFF) - Special nuclear material - High explosives - RV shell - plastics/foams/etc. - Others?
Using these, and weighting by volume, a lower mass bound was estimated at 740-1150 lbs.
Minuteman III throw weight is ~2400 lbs UNCLASSIFIED Minuteman III with 3 Mk 12a RVs (6)
Using this mass, a Safir system does not have the required v needed to reach necessary apogee to be considered an ICBM.
A comparison with western missiles of the same capability yields a bounded estimate (in time) of when Iran could have a nuclear capable ICBM.

Consider the naval capabilities of the DPRK.
How long would it take for the DPRK to successfully develop a reliable SLBM capability? NK-11 Missile ejection and estimate of Sinpo-Class SSB (7,8).

UNCLASSIFIED

In similar fashion to the Iran case, what does the DPRK need to achieve its goal?
A nuclear weapon. (Deliverable/miniaturized) - Reliable SLBM system - SSB(N) - Supporting technology for SLBMs and SSB(N)s
How long would it take for the DPRK to successfully develop a reliable SLBM capability?
North Korea has made some fairly substantial claims...
Claim of "Hydrogen Bomb" test, Jan 2016 (BBC). - Claim of being about to fully "cope with America with nuclear weapons at any time" (CNN).
North Korean rhetoric alone will not provide an accurate understanding of capabilities.
Important to consider that posturing can be geared both for domestic propaganda or foreign intimidation.
Reality: Primarily using maps and satellite imagery as the source of information:
~ One Sinpo Class submarine (assumed operational)
Testing of SLBMs initially only platform based.
Check through tracking tech transfers (Golf II, R-27)
Similarly to the Iran case, a comparison to Western development provides a minimum bound for the time needed to have a credible SLBM capability.
What is the difference between a "usable" capability and a "reliable" capability?
SSBNs, instead of SSBs, allow for a more flexible deterrent for several reasons
Quiet - Long(er) deployment times - Longer effective range
However, all of the required infrastructure for a naval nuclear reactor is certainly not trivial.
The domestic production timeframe on an SSBN class likely exceeds a decade.

The huge breadth and depth of open source information can complicate an analysis, especially because open information has no guarantee of accuracy
Open source information can provide key insights either directly or indirectly:
Looking at supporting factors (flow of scientists, products and waste from mines, government budgets, etc.)
Direct factors (statements, tests, deployments)

Fundamentally, it is the independent verification of information that allows for a more complete picture to be formed.
Overlapping sources allow for more precise bounds on times, weights, temperatures, yields or other issues of interest in order to determine capability.
Ultimately, a "good" answer almost never comes from an individual, but rather requires the utilization of a wide range of skill sets held by a team of people.