symbol
stringlengths 1
9
| title
stringlengths 1
701
| text
stringlengths 1
140k
|
|---|---|---|
C | This Former High Flying Stock Is Ready To Gain 50 | Growth investing is still the name of the game if you want to score big gains Investors in high flying stocks like Chipotle Mexican Grill NYSE CMG Salesforce com NYSE CRM and Priceline com Nasdaq PCLN have scored major gains in the last few years Yet such high flying stocks also bring real risk If investors change their opinion then shares could get crushed That s what happened to Netflix Nasdaq NFLX which tumbled sharply in 2011 on the heels of operational miscues But perhaps no stock has suffered from a change in perception like OpenTable Nasdaq OPEN the leading provider of restaurant reservations systems in the world The stock which went public in 2009 went from loved to hated in a heartbeat Back in 2010 investors looked at the company s growth rates and assumed they could continue for a long time to come With the exception of an economy related slowdown in 2009 when sales grew just 22 OpenTable s revenue has otherwise risen by at least 35 every year since 2003 With that kind of growth in place investors and analysts came to forget about the law of large numbers valuing this stock at more than 100 times projected profits last spring Sales reached 140 million in 2011 and OpenTable was already entrenched in a number of restaurants So when management began to speak of a maturation process last spring investors got spooked Scorching growth was no longer to be expected and 20 annual growth would be more the norm From great to good and that s OK This is my kind of stock Great growth has become good growth and as a result valuations have gone from absurd to reasonable The reasons why this stock should have fallen from its triple digit peak are quite clear But OpenTable now looks oversold and a move back toward the 60 mark is a real possibility OpenTable s stunning growth over the last decade was due to excellent management execution The company was able to rapidly expand the number of restaurants using its reservation system creating the network effect benefit which means that the greater the number of restaurants signed onto the system the larger the audience of consumers that will use the site This in turn makes the platform appealing to more new restaurants By the end of last year 44 of restaurants within its addressable market had signed up and almost everyone has stuck around the company s 1 churn rate is due to restaurant closings not to customer defections Success invites competition however and over the course of 2011 investors began buzzing that OpenTable couldn t maintain its high market share But competitors are not really gaining traction For example the industry s second largest player Urbanspoon works with just 1 200 restaurants making an average of 25 reservations per month For OpenTable those figures are 17 000 and 475 respectively The road ahead Of course with 44 of the U S market already signed up OpenTable shouldn t expect to grow more than 10 to 15 per year But that s why the company is gearing up for an international expansion as most other markets are virtually untapped Investors fretted that an expansion to Europe and Asia would crimp profits but it s notable that OpenTable actually requires very little expenditure to fund expansion The company built up its U S base very quickly even as capital spending remained below 10 million every year This allowed free cash flow to soar from 11 7 million in 2009 to 32 5 million in 2011 The international push should help OpenTable boost sales roughly 20 not just in 2012 and 2013 as analysts currently expect but into the middle of the decade as well That means sales could hit 200 million by 2013 and 300 million by 2015 The bottom line could move higher at a commensurate clip hitting 3 a share by 2015 compared with 1 28 a share in 2011 and a projected 2 a share by 2013 Risks to Consider The U S economy remains the wildcard Consumers have begun dining out more frequently as employment trends improve but the nascent economic recovery is fragile and any setback would make it harder for OpenTable to grow at a 20 annual pace Shares have come up off their lows and now trade around 42 Goldman Sachs sees shares rising to 57 in light of the company s competitive position in core North American market and long term opportunity abroad Analysts at Citigroup have an even more aggressive 67 price target citing the company s 4 a share in cash a 52 a share value placed on the North American business and another 11 a share implied in the company s international business By my math this stock is worth around 60 or 20 times that 2015 profit target of 3 per share I mentioned earlier That s a 50 gain from where the stock is now It could take 12 18 months for investors to look ahead to the mid decade growth path so some patience is required By David StermanDisclosure David Sterman does not personally hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article StreetAuthority LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article |
C | IPO Look Three New IPOs Scheduled For The Week Of April 2 | Three new IPOs scheduled for the week of April 2 Full IPO calendar Enerkem proposed NRKM Based in Montreal Canada Enerkem NRKM scheduled a 131 million IPO with a market capitalization of 508 million at a price range mid point of 18 for Wednesday April 4 2012 Managers Joint Managers Goldman Sachs Credit Suisse BMO Capital NRKM s technology can turn municipal solid waster into ethanol Other renewable companies that have IPO d in the last 18 months include Amyris AMRS Gevo GEVO KiOR KIOR Solazyme SZYM and Renewable Energy Group REGI Luca Technologies LUCA is also re scheduled for this week the week of April 2 2012 But ethanol prices are tanking Ethanol Falls to Eight Week Low on Signs of Cheaper Output Costs March 29 2012 NRKM s S 1 Erickson Air Crane proposed EAC Based in Portland Oregon Erickson Air Crane proposed EAC scheduled a 76 million IPO with a market capitalization of 150 million at a price range mid point of 14 for Tuesday February 7 2012 Manager Joint Managers Stifel Nicolaus Oppenheimer Lazard Capital EAC provides heavy lift helicopters and services for governments for fire fighting purposes Revenue for 2011 was up 30 to 153 million from 118 million EAC is priced at 12 times 2011 earnings Backlog however is down for 2011 versus 2010 EAC s S 1 Retail Properties of America proposed RPAI Based in Oak Brook Illinois Retail Properties of America proposed RPAI scheduled a 350 million IPO with a market capitalization of 2 5 billion at a price range mid point of 11 for Thursday April 5 2012 Managers Joint Managers J P Morgan Citigroup Deutsche KeyBanc RPAI owns and operates shopping centers and some office buildings On a YTD basis shopping center REIT sector are up 10 20 although Pennsylvania REIT PEI is up 40 RPAI s S 1 |
C | Chinese Economic Catastrophe | Will China Have A Hard Landing A critical question to how the world economy will progress over the coming months and years is Will China have a hard landing This question is sparking debate amongst many of the major global investment managers and brokerages throughout the world There was a Not only did the survey results show disagreement over whether China NYSEARCA FXI would have a hard landing the survey results also showed that the managers and brokerages disagreed over exactly what a hard landing was Out of the 19 participants in this 5 defined a hard landing as China s NYSEARCA FXI growth in gross domestic product GDP falling below 7 1 defined it as growth in GDP falling below 6 and 5 defined it as growth in GDP falling below 5 Other respondents in the believed that a hard landing didn t involve the actual rate of growth but rather how fast that rate of growth slowed during the course of 2012 Mingchun Sun Daiwa Securities head of China research and regional chief economist stated that a 2 reduction in GDP growth during 2012 would constitute a hard landing Conversely Joy Yang chief economist for Greater China at Mirae Asset Securities stated that a 1 5 reduction in GDP growth during 2012 would constitute a hard landing However some believed that a hard landing wasn t that easy to define and quantify due to the factor that qualitative measures would also play in determining whether the landing was hard or soft Shuang Ding senior China economist at Citigroup defines a hard landing as growth being below 7 for two consecutive quarters but this wouldn t apply if that less than 7 growth occurred because of the government s deliberate attempts to slow the economy Pacific Investment Management Company s PIMCO s Scott Mather stated that even less than 5 growth in China s economy would have to be combined with significant stress in the financial markets in order to make this landing a hard landing The aforementioned showed that 9 of the 19 47 4 participants think that a hard landing in China is unlikely to occur at any point within the next three years while 8 of the 19 42 1 think that there is a credible threat of an economic catastrophe occurring in China However 14 of the 19 73 7 China market experts believe that the current level of fear regarding China s economic growth slowdown and an imminent hard landing are unwarranted as compared to just 3 of the 19 15 8 believing that the fears were justified Regardless of whether experts think that the fears over China s economic growth slowdown and a potential for a hard landing are justified or not most believe that Beijing will take the necessary steps needed to ensure that China s economy will endure smooth sailing even with a likely change occurring in China s leadership in 2012 at the Communist Party level and in 2013 at the government level China s growing importance on the world stage as the world s second largest economy is what is causing many investors to be concerned over Premier Wen Jiabao s lower economic growth revisement from 8 to 7 5 for 2012 Additionally the fact that miner BHP Billiton Ltd AU BHP a huge supplier of iron ore and other minerals to China stated that it was reevaluating its capital expenditure plans due to the caution over Chinese demand is also causing investors to fear an economic downturn in China Combine that with a growing sense that Beijing would likely continue with a strict monetary policy and various market curbs especially in the property sector and most investors eyes are keeping a close watch on China s economic growth numbers during 2012 It is likely that investors were not reassured about China s near term economic outlook when China s 2 Purchasing Managers Index PMI numbers gave two different forecasts China s official PMI increased from 51 in February to 53 1 for March indicating a further expansion in the manufacturing sector any number over 50 indicates expansion This was the fourth straight month that this PMI reading increased However banking group HSBC and London financial services consultants Markit lowered the PMI from 49 6 in February to 48 3 in March indicating further contraction in the manufacturing sector any number under 50 indicates contraction This was the fifth straight month that this PMI reading decreased How can two PMIs from the same country lead to two very different conclusions about that country s near term economic outlook There are a few different reasons given for this apparent contradiction One reason is that HSBC s PMI only surveys a small number of companies and these companies are usually smaller and more privately owned than the companies that are measured in China s official PMI NYSEARCA CHIQ In addition the companies measured in HSBC s PMI are largely export oriented and China s export numbers had declined 0 5 year to year from January 2011 to January 2012 Conversely China s official PMI could be upwardly distorted due to imperfect seasonal adjustment In addition China s official PMI surveys China s larger more public companies hence adding another reason why China s two PMI figures are forecasting such different near term economic outlooks Daiwa Capital Market analysts however came up with an explanation that would take into account both of China s PMIs yet still lead to one conclusion that China s economic growth was slowing as compared to this same time last year Daiwa believes that China s government must loosen its economic policies in order to reinforce economic recovery in China Other China experts also agree with this believing Beijing can now relieve policy tightening moves without worrying about an increase in inflation Angus To senior research analyst at ICBC International investment banking unit at China s largest bank NYSEARCA CHIX believes that if China s government takes timely actions towards relieving its tight economic policies China can avoid an economic hard landing This is why many experts believe that China s government will start shifting its focus from controlling inflation to boosting economic growth Many experts also believe that as China s economy moves from an export focused to a consumption led economy its GDP will be more immune to a reduction in exports However the reduction in exports due to credit crises occurring in highly leveraged countries could still hurt China s economy long term due to the fact that China is the world s largest exporter The greatest threat to China s economy will likely come from the possibility of credit crises occurring in highly leveraged countries as this will lessen the demand for Chinese made goods in those countries Most experts agreed that there were two main scenarios where a hard landing for China s economy could occur Political disruption that prevented the central government s ability to redirect growth toward the demand for domestic goods China is about to experience a generational leadership change in 2012 and 2013 which could signal a change in policy priorities China s property sector is experiencing falling prices due to the government s desire to keep housing prices down and affordable to the masses Due to the fact that residential construction makes up a large percentage of GDP a sharp correction could severely hamper GDP growth Bottom Line There is disagreement over whether China s economy is contracting or expanding due to 2 different PMI numbers and near term economic outlooks most experts agree that China s central government has the authority and ability to keep its economy from experiencing a hard landing if it takes the necessary measures to easing its tight economic policies which most experts believe it will based on its previous handling of China s economy Disclaimer trades a wide variety of ETFs and positions can change at any time |
JPM | JPMorgan CEO defends bank size and breadth of product offerings | NEW YORK Reuters Jamie Dimon chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM the biggest U S based bank defended the size and business model of his company which has been criticized as being too big and complicated
Dimon in a letter to shareholders with the company s new annual report said the company is not a conglomerate and is not necessarily more risky because of its size The bank is facing tougher capital requirements from regulators than its rivals and has seen analysts ask whether its returns to shareholders would be better if it were broken up |
BMY | Infinity INFI Earnings And Sales Miss Estimates In Q1 | Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ INFI reported a loss of 24 cents in the first quarter of 2019 wider than a loss of 18 cents in the year ago quarter Loss was also wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 5 cents Revenues in the first quarter were 2 1 million which mainly relates to the achievement of a 2 million milestone from PellePharm for the initiation of a phase III study investigating patidegib a hedgehog pathway inhibitor in patients with Gorlin Syndrome The company did not realize any revenues in the year ago quarter Revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 10 million Infinity recognized the 30 million gross proceeds from the Copiktra royalty monetization as a liability net of transaction costs as of Mar 31 2019 The company is amortizing the liability to non cash interest expenses and will continue to recognize the royalty revenues that Verastem pays to HealthCare Royalty Partners III L P HCR as non cash royalty revenues Shares of Infinity have soared 44 1 year to date compared with the s growth of 8 5 2019 OutlookThe company expects net loss for 2019 to range from 40 million to 50 million including the Copiktra royalty monetization updated from the previous guidance of 30 40 million Infinity expects its existing cash cash equivalents and available for sale securities to be adequate to satisfy the company s capital needs in the second half of 2020 Pipeline UpdatesThe company announced that it will initiate MARIO 3 a phase II study of novel triple combination front line therapy in clinical collaboration with Roche Genentech OTC RHHBY Roche will supply Tecentriq atezolizumab to Infinity for use in MARIO 3 The study will evaluate the company s lead immuno oncology candidate IPI 549 in combination with Tecentriq and Abraxane nab paclitaxel in front line triple negative breast cancer TNBC and IPI 549 in combination with Tecentriq and Avastin bevacizumab in front line renal cell cancer RCC The study is anticipated to initiate in the second half of 2019 The data that will be generated in the front line with MARIO 3 will complement the data that will be generated in the second line with MARIO 275 MARIO 275 being conducted in collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY is a phase II study evaluating the combination of IPI 549 and Opdivo nivolumab in immuno oncology naive patients with urothelial cancer The study will be initiated in the second quarter of 2019 The company expects to complete enrollment in MARIO 1 combination expansion cohorts including augmented melanoma expansion cohort and TNBC expansion cohort in the second half of 2019 In the second half of 2019 the company will also initiate a study in collaboration with Arcus BioSceinecs Inc NYSE RCUS to evaluate IPI 549 combined with the latter s adenosine inhibitor AB928 and Abraxane in patients with previously treated advanced TNBC Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Zacks Rank Infinity currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
BMY | Clovis CLVS Q1 Earnings Top Estimates Rubraca Sales Strong | Clovis Oncology Inc NASDAQ CLVS incurred adjusted loss of 1 63 per share in the first quarter of 2019 narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 1 80 However it was wider than the year ago loss of 1 38 per share Net revenues entirely from Clovis only marketed drug Rubraca were approximately 33 1 million in the quarter up 8 9 sequentially The top line also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 31 68 million The company had recorded total revenues of 18 5 million entirely from Rubraca sales in the year ago quarter Shares of Clovis increased almost 1 9 on May 7 following the earnings release The stock has increased 8 3 so far this year compared with the s rise of 3 2 Quarter in DetailsRubraca sales in the United States were 31 9 million during the quarter The drug recorded first ever sales in ex U S market of 1 2 million during the quarter During the first quarter research development expenses increased 42 5 year over year to 62 million primarily due to increased expenses for label expansion studies on Rubraca Selling general and administrative SG A expenses escalated 21 6 year over year to 47 8 million reflecting increased activities to support commercialization of Rubraca in the United States as well as Europe Cash used in operating activities in the quarter was 98 5 million lower than 100 6 million in the year ago quarter Clovis ended the quarter with 460 8 million of cash equivalents and available for sale securities compared with 520 1 million as of Dec 31 2018 The company stated in its earnings release that it has entered into a clinical trial financing for up to 175 million The company will use the fund to support its late stage ATHENA study conducted in collaboration with Bristol Myers NYSE BMY to evaluate Rubraca combination regimens for advanced ovarian cancer The company anticipates that available funds following the financing agreement will extend cash runaway into the first half of 2022 from previously expected second half of 2020 Update on RubracaIn January 2019 Rubraca received approval for its second indication in Europe as a maintenance treatment for recurrent ovarian cancer patients irrespective of BRCA mutation who have responded to platinum based chemotherapy In March the company launched the drug in Europe starting with Germany It will continue to launch the drug in other European countries through 2019 and 2020 Clovis is planning to file a supplemental new drug application sNDA in late 2019 for label expansion of Rubraca in advanced prostate cancer based on the availability of mature data from the TRITON clinical study program In October the company presented encouraging initial data from the phase II TRITON2 study evaluating Rubraca in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer A phase III TRITON3 study evaluating Rubraca in prostate cancer patients who have not received chemotherapy is currently enrolling patients The company has a collaboration with Bristol Myers to develop Rubraca and pipeline candidate lucitanib in combination with the latter s PD L1 inhibitor Opdivo for several cancer indications The phase III ATHENA study evaluating Rubraca plus Opdivo as first line maintenance treatment in advanced ovarian cancer is currently enrolling patients A phase II study is evaluating the same combination in prostate cancer In April the company discontinued its phase II ATLAS study which was evaluating Rubraca as monotherapy in recurrent metastatic bladder cancer as it was unlikely to provide a meaningful clinical benefit to patients Our TakeClovis reported encouraging first quarter results as it beat both earnings and sales estimates on the back of growing Rubraca sales and launch of the drug in ex U S markets The drug also maintained its market share amid competition and slower penetration of PARP inhibitors Clovis maintained its 20 market share of the ovarian cancer PARP inhibitor market in the first quarter We are also encouraged about the company s efforts to develop the drug as monotherapy or combination regimens for new cancer indications Collaboration and clinical study agreements with other pharma companies especially Bristol Myers provide expertise and lead to sharing of cost of development Notably Rubraca is the first approved PARP inhibitor in Europe that is available for treatment as well as maintenance treatment for ovarian cancer This may help the drug to gain market share boosting its prospects However the market is competitive with the presence of Glaxo s NYSE GSK Zejula and Merck AstraZeneca s NYSE AZN Lynparza Operating expenses are expected to rise in 2019 as the company will incur higher investments to support Rubraca s launch in Europe and for ongoing clinical studies Clovis Oncology Inc Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Zacks RankClovis currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit PotentialThe biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
BMY | Mallinckrodt MNK Beats On Q1 Earnings Sales Raises View | Mallinckrodt Public Limited Company NYSE MNK reported better than expected results for the first quarter of 2019 led by strong performance of hospital products The company also raised its guidance
The company reported adjusted earnings of 1 94 per share in the quarter up from the year ago quarter s 1 62 Also the bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 1 73
Net sales in the quarter came in at 790 6 million up 4 7 year over year The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 771 5 million
Mallinckrodt s stock has gained 2 in the year so far against the s growth of 8 8
Quarter in Detail
The company now operates two reportable segments aligned to the previously announced separation the Specialty Brands and the Specialty Generics includes Amitiza
Specialty brand sales came in at 547 3 million down 0 4 year over year
Acthar Mallinckrodt s largest product generated sales of 223 9 million down 8 2 due to reset process impacting returning patients
Inomax the company s second largest product generated sales of 151 1 million up 8 1 driven by continued and consistent demand and contract renewals Ofirmev sales increased 16 6 year over year to 95 6 million owing to strong demand and order timing
Sales of the Therakos immunology platform were 61 8 million up 7 7
Specialty Generics and Amitiza sales amounted to 243 3 million up 17 6 Amitiza posted net sales of 53 0 million while Specialty Generics products net sales returned to growth with 190 3 million up 3 5 driven by recapture of market share
Adjusted selling general and administrative expenses in the quarter were 211 4 million up from 207 9 million in the year ago quarter Meanwhile research and development expenses increased 4 to 85 3 million
During the quarter the company reduced total debt by 263 5 million
Guidance Update
Total sales for Specialty Brands are expected to increase 1 4 Total sales for Specialty Generics and Amitiza are now expected to increase 2 5 previous guidance 1 4 Earnings per share are now projected to be 8 30 8 60 up from the previous projection of 8 10 8 40
Our Take
Impressive results in the first quarter bode well for Mallinckrodt The hospital portfolio looks solid as Ofirmev and Inomax gained market share and the troubled generics segment has returned to growth
This year is expected to be a transformative one for Mallinckrodt as it strives to revive its portfolio pipeline In December 2018 the company announced that it intends to spin off the Specialty Generics Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients business along with Amitiza into a new company The separation is expected in the second half of the year We expect investors to focus on the same
Zacks Rank Key Picks
Mallinckrodt carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold
Some better ranked stocks are Bristol Myers Squibb Co NYSE BMY Roche OTC RHHBY and Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ LGND While the first two sport a Zacks Rank 2 Buy Ligand carries a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see
Bristol Myers earnings per share estimates have increased from 4 76 to 4 93 for 2020 in the past 60 days
Roche s earnings per share estimates have increased from 2 35 to 2 40 for 2019 in the past 60 days
Ligand s earnings per share estimates have increased from 28 72 to 29 14 for 2019 and from 24 cents to 69 cents for 2020 in the past 60 days
Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit PotentialThe biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
C | Not just foreigners battered Thai stocks | Thai institutions foreigners lead stock selloff
Foreign buying seen returning late 2009
By Vithoon Amorn
BANGKOK Oct 16 Reuters Thai Finance Minister Korn
Chatikavanij said on Friday the recent slide in Thai stocks was
due mainly to profit taking by foreign investors but data
shows that local investors also played a big role
Both Thai and foreign institutional investors led selling
this week in a market correction triggered by concerns over the
health of Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej
Thai institutional investors sold a net 4 3 billion baht
129 million worth of shares in the last four daily sessions
while their foreign counterparts unloaded 1 6 billion baht
47 9 million according to the Stock Exchange of Thailand
The selloffs by the two major investor groups in the Thai
bourse contrasted with aggressive buying in the first seven
trading days of October when they respectively bought 2 1
billion baht 62 9 million and 8 2 billion baht 245 4
million of Thai shares
This rumour triggered plunge reminds us that the higher
you get the more insecure you feel said economist Thanomsri
Fongarunrung of Phatra Securities Thailand s improving
fundamentals remain unchanged
The bourse said despite the selloff on Wednesday and
Thursday foreign investors were net buyers of 6 58 billion
baht 197 million worth of shares in the first half of
October while Thai institutions were net sellers of 2 27
billion baht
Thai institutional and foreign investors each account for
about 20 percent of the market s daily turnover with the rest
coming from individual Thais
After its biggest one day drop in a year on Thursday to a
six week low Thailand s benchmark stock index rebounded on
Friday rising three percent on bargain hunting
The gains aren t quite enough to make up for the 7 2
percent two day plunge that wiped away 427 billion baht 12 8
billion in market s value But analysts say it may signal a
return to a generally upward trend though the pace could be
slow
The index is up 58 percent this year set for its best
yearly gain since 2003 after a 48 percent plunge in 2008 during
the global financial crisis That s the best performance in
Southeast Asia this year behind Vietnam and Indonesia
CHEAP VALUATIONS
I don t think we will see the SET Index returning quickly
to the same level earlier this week at least not for a couple
of weeks said Wikij Tirawannarat senior equity strategist at
Capital Nomura Securities referring to the index s intraday
high of 758 hit on Tuesday a day before heavy selling kicked
in
The sell off we have just seen can be attributed mostly to
holders of local and foreign investment funds taking profits of
recent rallies by liquidating positions Foreigners would
probably return late this year when our stocks fall to more
attractive levels he said
Publicly traded companies in Thailand were already looking
cheap before the selloff trading at just 14 2 times current
earnings making them the cheapest in Asia after Pakistan That
compares with the Philippines 16 7 times Indonesia s 16 5
times according to Thomson Reuters data
Despite a four year political crisis and Thailand s first
recession in 11 years foreign investors were net buyers of
61 8 billion baht 1 9 billion of Thai equities this year
fuelled by a stronger baht and flows of global funds into Asian
equities
That s a fraction of the market s 5 5 trillion baht 165
billion value but foreign buying had picked up in recent
weeks
Foreign flows as a percentage of Thailand s market
capitalisation had reached 1 1 percent by October from 0 5
percent in July more than double that of Indonesia and
Philippines research by stock broker Kim Eng Securities shows
POLITICAL CRISIS
The buying came despite an intractable political crisis
that shows no signs of abating Thousands of supporters of
ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra plan to rally on
Saturday pressing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to call a
snap election and providing an illustration of the deep
political divide
But there are signs investors are willing to look beyond
politics
In what some saw as a vote of foreign confidence Thailand
received net foreign direct investment of 25 2 billion in
three years to 2008 lower only than Singapore s 35 3 billion
and far more than Indonesia s 6 5 billion and the Philippines
3 5 billion according to data compiled by HSBC
Looking ahead Citigroup Global Markets in a Sept 25
report said it had expected Thailand to attract Southeast
Asia s largest levels of foreign direct investment in both 2009
with 5 billion and in 2010 with 7 billion
The baht has also held firm as Asia s fourth best
performing currency this year after the Indonesian rupiah
South Korean won and Indian rupee It has appreciated 4 2
percent against the dollar since January 1 even when including
this week s drop
But the selloff underlines a fragile outlook for Thai
assets In reaction to the 7 2 percent plunge of Thai stocks in
the past two sessions ING advised clients on Friday to avoid
Thai financial assets
And analyst Vikas Kawatra of Kim Eng Securities described
the selloff this week as a trend reversal not a market
correction
The March October 2009 rally was brought about the
realisation that the world had not ended And its demise will
be due to the realisation that the good economic times of the
past few decades are over he said
Until we see a proper correction to global markets and
some return to normal chart patterns and logical
fundamentals we advise staying out of equities After the
months long rally the upside potential is not as great as the
downside risk he said
1 33 41 Baht
Editing by Jason Szep |
C | FTSE gains as optimism on Q3 earnings returns | FTSE 100 up 1 1 percent
Banks commodity stocks push higher
Third quarter earnings in focus Apple results awaited
By Simon Falush
LONDON Oct 19 Reuters Britain s top share index gained
1 1 percent early on Monday driven by strength in commodity
stocks and banks as optimism about the third quarter earnings
season and outlook for the global economy boosted equities
By 0813 GMT the FTSE 100 was 55 84 points higher at 5 246 08
after falling 0 6 percent on Friday
Energy stocks were the biggest positive for the index as
crude prices hit a one year high rising for the seventh
straight session
BG Group BP Royal Dutch Shell and Tullow oil added 1 2 to
1 9 percent
Equity markets retreated on Friday after results from Bank
of America and General Electric failed to live up to raised
expectations after results from JPMorgan earlier in the week
but optimism remains that there will be further positive
surprises
Earnings are likely to beat expectations because
expectations have been driven down over the previous nine months
and against a relatively easy comparative last year said
Jeremy Batstone Carr analyst at Charles Stanley
Also pointing to a slightly improved outlook for the British
economy property Web site Rightmove said house prices in
England and Wales rose for the first time in more than a year in
October buoyed by a dearth of properties coming onto the
market
MINERS GAIN
Miners tracked higher metal prices Rio Tinto Xstrata
Lonmin Anglo American Kazakhmys and Fresnillo added 1 7 to 3 7
percent
The blue chip index is up 18 7 percent this year and has
surged 52 percent since touching a six year trough in March but
is still 2 9 percent below its level when Lehman Brothers
collapsed last September
Also benefiting from improved risk appetite banks were
broadly higher with Barclays HSBC and Standard Chartered ahead
0 8 to 2 4 percent
However part nationalised banks Lloyds Banking Group and
Royal Bank of Scotland were the top two FTSE 100 fallers down
1 3 and 1 1 percent respectively as cash call worries persisted
for them
Telecoms firm Cable Wireless was also a notable blue chip
faller down 0 8 percent after Citigroup cut its rating on the
stock to hold from buy
Among the mid caps bus and rail group National Express
shares jumped 9 1 percent after Stagecoach confirmed it
approached its rival about a possible merger in a deal which was
valued by the Sunday Telegraph at 1 65 billion pounds 2 7
billion Stagecoach fell 3 3 percent
With the corporate earnings focus remaining across the
Atlantic Apple is among a number of U S companies set to
report earnings later in the day although after London s close
No major UK or U S economic data will be released on Monday
and investors main macro focus this week will on be the first
reading for UK Q3 GDP figures due on Friday
British GDP growth will struggle to hit 1 percent in 2010
according to the Ernst Young ITEM Club s autumn forecast
The Bank of England must continue its policy of quantitative
easing because the financial system has yet to recover fully
Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen said in a newspaper
interview on Sunday
Additional reporting by Paul Sandle Editing by Hans Peters |
C | Economic Surprise Index Is Now Trending Down | Notice how the US economic data coming out lately has been quite mediocre relative to expectations For example today s pending home sales came in 0 5 vs 1 expected Dallas Fed manufacturing activity came in at 10 8 with 16 expected Citi has an index that tracks economic data surprises Here is the definition The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises actual releases vs Bloomberg survey median A positive reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance beating consensus The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three month window The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets The index is now trending lower as the negative surprises are starting to weigh it down The US economic forecasters have gotten a bit ahead of themselves which may indicate a need for caution |
C | IPO Look Luca Technologies | Based in Golden Colorado Luca Technologies proposed LUCA scheduled an 102 million IPO with a market capitalization of 337 million at a price range midpoint of 12 for Friday March 30 2012 Managers Citigroup Piper Jaffray Raymond James LUCA is one of nine new IPOs scheduled for the week of March 26 For a summary SUMMARYLUCA uses biotechnology to create and sustainably produce natural gas Other renewable companies that have IPO d in the last 18 months include Amyris AMRS Gevo GEVO KiOR KIOR Solazyme SZYM and Renewable Energy Group REGI Shell agreementLUCA uses biotechnology to create and sustainably produce natural gas On December 16 2011 Luca entered into a Development and Commercialization Agreement with a division of Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS B Shell International Exploration and Production Inc Shell LUCA and Shell will work together to advance an understanding of the mechanisms of microbial coal conversion to methane and to develop optimal strategies to propagate nutrient bearing water within coal formations In addition LUCA will own all intellectual property that is jointly developed during the collaboration but LUCA will grant Shell a royalty free license for such intellectual property for use in microbial conversion of coal to methane NATURAL GAS GLUTHowever the supply of natural gas exceeds demand and the price of natural gas has dropped Reuters March 22 2012The natural gas glut is attributed to the practice of shale fracking as explainedCONCLUSIONLUCA is long way from proving it has a profitable market opportunity especially with the current natural gas glut Based on price to book ratios LUCA is priced within range of other renewable companies that have IPO s in the last several years Nevertheless we would pass on the LUCA IPO BUSINESSLUCA uses biotechnology to create and sustainably produce natural gas LUCA s proprietary technology stimulates native microorganisms that reside in subsurface hydrocarbon deposits such as coal oil and organic rich shales to accelerate the bioconversion of such resources into methane the principal component of natural gas which LUCA produces and sells using existing infrastructure LUCA believes that its business represents a transformative and disruptive innovation in natural gas creation and production integrating sophisticated biotechnology with the traditional natural gas business LUCA has performed extensive lab and field testing over the past eight years including the deployment of over 500 field level applications of its technology which LUCA believes proved the efficacy of its technology to economically and sustainably create new methane gas from wells treated with LUCA s technology demonstrate that additional value can be created from using existing natural gas wells and pipeline infrastructure potentially extending the economic lives of thousands of wells confirm that water should be conserved and re used whenever feasible as it is integral to the biogenic creation of new methane gas anddemonstrate through extensive testing that the technology is safe to the public and the environment LUCA s Restoration Process a proprietary bioconversion technology accelerates and enhances the naturally occurring methanogenic process of native anaerobic microbial communities by circulating a mixture of water and nutrients into reservoirs using existing oil and natural gas wells Anaerobic microbes have lived in subsurface coal oil and shale deposits for millions of years feeding on organic matter to create natural gas This complex microbial gas creation process is susceptible to interruption by various biological and other conditions including traditional coalbed methane development whereby drilling and extraction dewaters the coal formations inhibiting microbial activity and disrupting natural gas creation LUCA s initial focus is to use its Restoration Process to convert coal into methane by restoring subsurface habitats to enhance the creation and production of natural gas Recent developmentsOn December 16 2011 LUCA entered into a Development and Commercialization Agreement with Shell International Exploration and Production Inc or Shell whereby LICA and Shell will work together to advance an understanding of the mechanisms of microbial coal conversion to methane and to develop optimal strategies to propagate nutrient bearing water within coal formations The current agreement governs the first phase of what is proposed to be a multi year program under which Shell will provide both personnel and financial support During this first phase each party will retain all commercial rights to respective current intellectual property but will grant the other royalty free licenses for any intellectual property developed independently during the collaboration for use in microbial conversion of coal to methane In addition LUCA will own all intellectual property that is jointly developed during the collaboration but LUCA will grant Shell a royalty free license for such intellectual property for use in microbial conversion of coal to methane INDUSTRY OVERVIEWNatural gas created from LUCA s Restoration Process has a distinct advantage over many renewable energy sources including biofuels in that it can be sold directly into existing markets using existing infrastructure Biogenic domestically produced natural gas is an accessible and more environmentally friendly energy alternative which is expected to play an increasing role in advancing both environmental and energy policy goals in the United States There has been growing concern over CO2 and other emissions that are especially prevalent from burning coal and fuel oil According to the EIA methane is the cleanest burning fossil fuel with approximately 117 lbs of CO2 produced per 1 million Btu equivalent of natural gas compared to 160 lbs of CO2 for fuel oil and 200 lbs for coal LUCA s technology offers the potential to expand domestic energy production while minimizing the need to expand the footprint of the oil and natural gas industry s producing areas According to the EIA demand for natural gas in the United States and globally is projected to grow at annual growth rates of 0 5 and 1 9 through 2035 respectively The EIA has identified several factors that could accelerate growth in demand for natural gas in the coming years including potentially faster acceptance of compressed natural gas or CNG vehicles recent policy changes in China promoting the production import and use of natural gas and a more restricted outlook for nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in Japan The EPA regards natural gas as the cleanest burning transportation fossil fuel commercially available today The EIA estimated that in 2010 there were 100 000 natural gas vehicles operating on American roads and more than 11 million natural gas vehicles worldwide The current US administration has endorsed incentives for trucks powered by natural gas Additionally the EPA has issued stricter requirements on emissions from US power plants When implemented such requirements could push power companies to replace coal fired plants with gas burning ones which would further increase domestic natural gas consumption INTELLECTUAL PROPERTYLUCA has 20 issued US and foreign patents three foreign patent applications that are currently allowed and awaiting issuance and 36 pending US and foreign patent applications COMPETITIONLUCA views traditional E P exploration production companies other biogenic gas creation companies and alternative clean energy companies as its main competitors Traditional Exploration Production competitionAlthough LUCA s methane is similar to natural gas from other sources LUCA believes that its process differentiates it from traditional E P companies LUCA s natural gas is created and produced in real time in a sustainable manner rather than extracted in a rapidly depleting manner from stored and finite resources LUCA believes the economics of its Restoration Process are more favorable than that of traditional E P companies LUCA s ability to reuse existing wells and infrastructure substantially reduces capital investments and provides significant competitive cost advantage relative to shale and traditional E P companies Biogenic gas creation competitionLUCA is aware of other companies developing and or planning to commercialize bioconversion technology that is similar to or potentially overlaps with LUCA s technology portfolio These companies include Ciris Energy Synthetic Genomics or SGI and Next Fuel Ciris is a privately owned company based in Centennial Colorado Ciris patents suggest they use a bioconversion process that involves injecting both chemicals and nutrients down coalbed methane wells The chemicals serve to solubilize a fraction of the coal and nutrients stimulate microbes to produce methane LUCA understands that Ciris has had limited application of its technology in the field SGI is a privately owned company based in La Jolla California which conducts a broad range of research on next generation fuels and chemicals hydrocarbon recovery and conversion and agricultural products In June 2007 BP invested in SGI and established a multi year research and development collaboration joint venture focused on microbial enhanced solutions to increase hydrocarbon recovery LUCA believes that SGI may not be restricting their process to use of native and or genetically unmodified micro organisms as LUCA has done Next Fuel is a public company OTCQB NXFI with a coal to gas process LUCA understands that Next Fuel s process re introduces amendments that have been designed and tested to the wide range of microorganisms that exist in seams of coal and other carbonaceous deposits Next Fuel s proprietary amendments consist of constituents with depolymerizing and structure altering functions to condition coal for the follow up pathways for gas production Because of the use of coal depolymerizing and structure altering chemicals LUCA believe Next Fuel s process may be suited for underground environments different from those available to LUCA Restoration Process Alternative clean energy competitionProduction of electricity is one of the primary uses of natural gas Several clean technologies are used to produce electricity including wind solar hydro geothermal and nuclear power Although these technologies produce only a minor percentage of all electricity several are experiencing fast growth rates In addition many national and local governments are promoting and subsidizing the use of one or more of these technologies As a result LICA views these alternatives as competitors to the Restoration Process While natural gas fired technologies compete for a share of the clean energy market with alternative clean technologies they can also be used to complement those that produce power intermittently like wind and solar Intermittent sources generally require backup capacity In many markets gas fired power plants are increasingly used to balance demand loads Natural gas can also be used as a low CO2 transportation fuel for CNG vehicles As a result LUCA s Restoration Process competes with a range of biofuel technologies that produce alcohols bio gasoline bio diesel and bio jet fuel USE OF PROCEEDSLUCA expects to net 93 million from its IPO at the price range mid point of 12 IPO funds are allocated as follows 34 million acquisitions of natural gas properties wells and infrastructure 41 million Application of LUCA s Restoration Process to such properties 18 million Research and development working capital and other general corporate |
C | IPO Look GasLog | Based in Bermuda with executive offices in Monanco GasLog Ltd proposed GLOG scheduled a 400 million IPO with a market capitalization of 1 071 billion at a price range mid point of 17 for Friday March 30 2012 Managers Goldman Sachs Citigroup J P Morgan UBS GLOG is one of nine new IPOs scheduled for the week of March 26 For a summary SUMMARYGLOG is growth oriented international owner operator and manager of liquefied natural gas LNG carriers providing support to international energy companies as part of their LNG logistics chain GLOG s owned fleet consists of 10 wholly owned LNG carriers including two ships delivered to in 2010 and eight LNG carriers to be constructed by the world s leading LNG shipbuilder Samsung Heavy Industries Based on increasing staffing preparing for ship arrivals in 2012 GLOG expects that for 2012 profit will be significantly lower than the 13 72 million recorded in 2011 No payout until 4th quarter 2012 and then the annualized payout rate will be only 2 6 CONCLUSIONGLOG will be a high quality liquefied natural gas LNG carrier albeit with very heavy customer concentration However with income projected to decline in 2012 and with dividend payouts not beginning until the December 2012 quarter there appears to be no need to rush in and buy GLOG stock on the IPO Competition includes the major owners of LNG carriers include MISC Group Qatar Gas NYK MOL Teekay Tankers TNK and Golar LNG Partners LP GMLP Golar LNG Partners was formed by Golar LNG GLNG Limited Golar to own and operate floating storage and regasification units and liquefied natural gas carriers under long term charters BUSINESSGLOG is growth oriented international owner operator and manager of liquefied natural gas LNG carriers providing support to international energy companies as part of their LNG logistics chain GLOG s owned fleet consists of 10 wholly owned LNG carriers including two ships delivered to in 2010 and eight LNG carriers to be constructed by the world s leading LNG shipbuilder Samsung Heavy Industries GLOG currently manages and operate 14 LNG carriers which includes 2 owned ships as well as 11 ships owned or leased by BG Group LON BG a leading participant in the Global energy and natural gas markets and one additional LNG carrier in which GLOG has a 25 interest All of GLOG s ten owned ships are or when delivered will be newly built LNG carriers equipped with the latest tri fuel diesel electric propulsion technology which lowers the fuel cost to charterers and environmental emissions compared to traditional steam powered LNG carriers GLOG has secured multi year time charter contracts for the two ships delivered to in 2010 and six of the newbuilding ships on order that from December 31 2011 provide total contracted revenue in excess of 1 2 billion during their initial terms which expire between 2015 and 2021 EXPECTATIONSGLOG expects to expand staffing levels significantly in 2012 as it prepares for the delivery of additional vessels in 2013 and incur increased general and administrative expenses associated with being a public company At the same time since none of GLOG s new buildings will be delivered before 2013 GLOG expects revenue for 2012 to increase only modestly in 2012 over 2011 Accordingly GLOG expects that for 2012 profit will be significantly lower than the 13 72 million recorded in 2011 while on a percentage basis the decline in Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be substantially less VESSEL LIFEGLOG estimates the useful lives of its new ships to be 35 years from the date of delivery from the shipyard Furthermore GLOG estimates the residual values of the ships to be 10 of the initial ship cost which represents an estimate of the market value of the ship at the end of its useful life MARKET OPPORTUNITIESWith the Global demand for natural gas increasing and LNG s share of the international natural gas trade expanding within the sector GLOG believes the following attributes of the LNG industry create opportunities for GLOG to successfully execute its business plan and expand its business Natural gas and LNG are strong and growing components of Global energy sources Natural gas accounted for 24 of the world s energy consumption in 2010 and over the last two decades has been one of the world s fastest growing energy sources growing at twice the rate of oil consumption over the same period GLOG believes LNG which accounted for 31 of overall cross border trade of natural gas in 2010 will continue to increase its share in the mid term future Because of the cost and environmental advantages of natural gas relative to other energy sources together with the increased availability of natural gas GLOG believes that demand for natural gas and LNG in particular will continue to grow in the future The demand for LNG shipping is experiencing significant growth Disparities in the location of natural gas reserves and the nations that consume natural gas have resulted in a rise in the percentage of natural gas traded between countries as well as an increase in the portion that is being transported in the form of LNG This is being driven by the growing distances between natural gas sources and its users the greater flexibility and generally lower capital costs of shipping natural gas in the form of LNG as well as the reduced environmental impact as compared to transportation by pipeline Additionally price disparity between markets is becoming a feature of the LNG trade market with a significant difference in terms of the prices that Far Eastern and American buyers are willing to pay for LNG creating arbitrage opportunities for LNG producers and traders Planned capacity increases in liquefaction and regasification terminals are anticipated to increase export capacity significantly requiring additional LNG carriers to support trade activity Based on the current project pipeline of liquefaction projects that are planned or under construction liquefaction capacity is expected to increase by 38 by 2016 requiring an additional 100 LNG carriers compared to a Global order book of 58 ships OVERALL SHIP SUPPLYA limited newbuilding order book and high barriers to entry should restrict the supply of new LNG carriers The order book of LNG carriers represents only 17 of current LNG carrier fleet capacity as of December 31 2011 with only modest increases expected in 2012 2013 and 2014 respectively GLOG also believes that significant barriers to entry exist in the LNG shipping sector given the large capital requirements the limited availability of financing the limited availability of qualified ship personnel and the need for a high degree of technical management capabilities The industry is also known to have a demanding customer base that requires the highest quality operating standards Finally we believe the limited construction capacity at high quality shipyards and the long lead time required for the construction of LNG carriers should also restrict the supply of new LNG carriers in the near term Stringent customer certification standards favor experienced high quality operators Energy companies have established increasingly high operational safety and financial standards that independent owners of LNG carriers generally must meet in order to qualify for employment in their programs Because GLOG has managed LNG carriers for BG Group for over 10 years and GLOG s technical management operations have also been vetted by four other major energy companies GLOG believes that these rigorous and comprehensive certification standards will enhance GLOG s ability to compete for new customers and charters relative to less qualified and less experienced ship operators INDUSTRY TRENDSIncreasing ownership of the Global LNG carrier fleet by independent owners Independent owners have increased their share of the Global LNG carrier fleet from approximately 25 8 in 2001 to 31 2 as of January 2012 Orders by independent owners represent 72 4 of the current Global order book GLOG believes private and state owned energy companies will continue to seek high quality independent owners for their growing LNG shipping requirements in the future driven in part by large capital requirements and a recognition that LNG ship owning and operation are outside of their core areas of expertise Strong preference for modern ships equipped with the latest tri fuel diesel electric technology Today 71 of the Global LNG carrier fleet is equipped with steam turbine propulsion while approximately 90 of the LNG carriers currently on order will have diesel electric propulsion GLOG believes that most charterers prefer the newer diesel electric propulsion technology because it offers significantly lower fuel consumption and emissions as compared with steam powered ships Based on average prices for heavy fuel oil in Singapore during 2011 tri fuel diesel electric propulsion offers estimated savings of over 30 or approximately 33 040 to 41 300 per day for a ship operating on fuel oil at a speed of 19 5 knots in laden condition compared to conventional steam turbine propulsion Because all of the LNG carriers in its owned fleet are modern ships with tri fuel diesel electric propulsion GLOG believes it is well positioned to benefit from this trend EIGHT NEWBUILDING SHIPS newbuilding industry jargon GLOG has secured multi year time charter contracts with BG Group and Shell for eight of the ten ships in its owned fleet including six newbuilding ships on order By contracting with companies that GLOG believes are financially strong such as BG Group BP and Shell RSD B GLOG believes it has minimized counterparty risk The total contract price for GLOG s eight newbuilding ships on order is approximately 1 55 billion of which 124 4 million has been paid to date GLOG has entered into four loan agreements aggregating 1 13 billion to finance a portion of the contract prices of its eight newbuildings Borrowings under these facilities will bear interest at floating rates will be repayable over periods ranging from six to 12 years will require GLOG to comply with certain financial and operating covenants and will be secured by mortgages on the ships GLOG expects to fund the balance of the total contract price with the proceeds of this offering In the event GLOG decides to exercise its options to order two additional ships from Samsung GLOG expects to finance the costs with cash from operations and a combination of debt and equity financing Upon delivery of the last of GLOG s eight contracted newbuildings in 2015 GLOG s owned fleet will have an average age of 1 9 years making it one of the youngest in the industry MULTI YEAR TIME CHARTERSGLOG currently focuses on multi year time charters Current time charters have initial terms of up to seven years and include options that permit the charterers to extend the terms for successive multi year periods under hire rate provisions that are comparable to those prevailing at the end of the expiring term DIVIDEND POLICYFollowing this offering GLOG intends to pay a quarterly dividend of 0 11 per share commencing in the fourth quarter of 2012 As GLOG s fleet expands GLOG will evaluate future increases to the quarterly dividend consistent with its cash flow and liquidity position The annualized payout rate as of the 4th quarter is 2 6 annual rate at the price range mid point of 17CONCURRENT PRIVATE PLACEMENTConcurrently with the public offering of common shares pursuant to this prospectus GLOG is also selling approximately 3 7 million of its common shares through a private placement to certain directors and officers at the public offering price USE OF PROCEEDSGLOG expects to from this offering and the concurrent private placement will be 374 million GLOG intends to the IPO proceeds together with its 1 13 billion of committed debt financing to fund the remaining scheduled installment payments totaling 1 42 billion under eight new LNG carrier construction contracts The balance if any is allocated to other general corporate purposes |
BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Q1 Earnings And Revenues Top Estimates | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY came out with quarterly earnings of 1 10 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 1 09 per share This compares to earnings of 0 94 per share a year ago These figures are adjusted for non recurring items
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 0 92 A quarter ago it was expected that this biopharmaceutical company would post earnings of 0 85 per share when it actually produced earnings of 0 94 delivering a surprise of 10 59
Over the last four quarters the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times
Bristol Myers which belongs to the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry posted revenues of 5 92 billion for the quarter ended March 2019 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 09 This compares to year ago revenues of 5 19 billion The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters
The sustainability of the stock s immediate price movement based on the recently released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management s commentary on the earnings call
Bristol Myers shares have lost about 14 2 since the beginning of the year versus the S P 500 s gain of 16 8
What s Next for Bristol Myers
While Bristol Myers has underperformed the market so far this year the question that comes to investors minds is what s next for the stock
There are no easy answers to this key question but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company s earnings outlook Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter s but also how these expectations have changed lately
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried and tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions
Ahead of this earnings release the estimate revisions trend for Bristol Myers was favorable While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company s just released earnings report the current status translates into a Zacks Rank 2 Buy for the stock So the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead The current consensus EPS estimate is 1 06 on 5 99 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and 4 16 on 23 91 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank Large Cap Pharmaceuticals is currently in the top 13 of the 250 plus Zacks industries Our research shows that the top 50 of the Zacks ranked industries outperform the bottom 50 by a factor of more than 2 to 1 |
BMY | Celgene CELG Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates On Revlimid Sales | Celgene Corporation NASDAQ CELG reported better than expected results for the first quarter of 2019 on strong sales of Revlimid
The company s stock has gained 31 7 in the past six months against the s decline of 2 6
Celgene reported adjusted earnings of 2 55 per share which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 2 49 and increased from 2 05 in the year ago quarter
Total revenues grew 13 7 year over year to 4 025 billion in the quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 01 billion
Otezla Revlimid Drive Growth
Net sales of Revlimid came in at 2 6 billion reflecting 15 year over year increase The drug performed well both in the United States up 13 and international markets up 19 Growth in the quarter was driven by increase in market share and extended treatment duration
Net sales of another cancer drug Abraxane increased 9 in a year to 286 million Pomalyst Imnovid sales came in at 557 million up 23 year over year Sales were driven by increase in market share and extended duration
Sales of psoriasis drug Otezla were up 10 year over year to 389 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 418 million
All other product sales including Istodax Thalomid Vidaza and an authorized generic version of Vidaza in the United States totaled 215 million in the quarter down from 229 million in the year ago quarter
Adjusted research and development expenses increased 25 9 to 874 million Adjusted selling general and administrative expenses decreased 2 6 to 671 million
Business Update
Earlier in the month the stockholders of Celgene voted in favor of the proposed merger with Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY The transaction will close in the third quarter of 2019
Pipeline Update
The company announced top line results from the phase III ROBUST trial evaluating Revlimid plus rituximab cyclophosphamide doxorubicin vincristine and prednisone R CHOP chemotherapy R2 CHOP in patients with previously untreated activated B cell ABC subtype diffuse large B cell lymphoma DLBCL The trial did not meet the primary endpoint of demonstrating superiority in progression free survival PFS compared to placebo plus R CHOP
Celgene announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use CHMP adopted positive opinions for Revlimid in combination with bortezomib and dexamethasone RVd in adult patients with previously untreated multiple myeloma who are not eligible for transplant and for Pomalyst Imnovid in combination with bortezomib and dexamethasone PVd for the treatment of adult patients with multiple myeloma who have received at least one prior treatment regimen including Revlimid
Last month Celgene submitted a New Drug Application NDA to the FDA for ozanimod in patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis RMS
The FDA granted Priority Review designation to the NDA for fedratinib in patients with myelofibrosis with a target action date of Sep 3 2019
In April Celgene and Acceleron Pharma NASDAQ XLRN submitted a BLA to the FDA for luspatercept for the treatment of adult patients with very low to intermediate risk myelodysplastic syndromes MDS associated anemia who have ring sideroblasts and require red blood cell RBC transfusions and for the treatment of adult patients with beta thalassemia associated anemia who require RBC transfusions
The company is also working to expand Revlimid s label The FDA granted Priority Review designation to the supplemental New Drug Application sNDA for Revlimid in combination with rituximab R in patients with relapsed and or refractory indolent NHL A decision from the FDA is expected by Jun 27 2019
Roche s OTC RHHBY Tecentriq in combination with Abraxane for the treatment of adult patients with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic triple negative breast cancer TNBC was granted accelerated approval in the United States
2019 Outlook Reiterated
Celgene expects earnings per share of 10 60 10 80 in 2019 Net revenues are estimated to be 17 0 17 2 billion Revlimid sales are projected to be 10 8 billion and Abraxane sales to be around 1 1 billion Pomalyst s revenues are expected to be 2 4 billion whereas Otezla sales are projected to be 1 9 billion
Our Take
Celgene s first quarter results were strong as the company comfortably beat on both sales and earnings The focus is on the merger announcement with large cap pharma Bristol Myers Squibb Co NYSE BMY for a whopping 74 billion Per the terms Celgene shareholders will receive 50 plus one share of Bristol Myers and one tradeable Contingent Value Right CVR which will entitle the holder to receive a cash payment of 9 00 upon the achievement of FDA approval of all three products ozanimod liso cel and bb2121 within the specified time periods
Zacks Rank
Celgene currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see
Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above would you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year
Who wouldn t Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity In 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 the portfolio scored well into double digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as 61 5 And from 2012 2017 while the market boomed 126 3 Zacks Top 10s reached an even more sensational 181 9 |
BMY | Bristol Myers Elliott Wave Setup Can Double The Price | Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY is in the process of acquiring Celgene NASDAQ CELG in a 74 billion dollar cash and stock deal including debt The deal faced opposition from hedge funds Wellington Management and Starboard Value but ultimately gained shareholder approval on April 12th
Arbitrageurs who aim to profit from the discrepancy between the market price and the deal closing price seem to have shorted BMY stock as a hedge in order to protect their returns The stock is set to open at 45 64 today down from 54 38 in early March In reality BMY stock has been under pressure since July 2016 when it reached an all time high of 77 12 a share
The acquisition is expected to close in Q3 2019 From then on management will have to deal with shareholder dilution debt reduction and the integration of Celgene into Bristol Myers Despite the high quality of Celgene s business risks for long term BMY investors have increased significantly A lot can go wrong but the actual outcome positive or negative will remain unknown for some time
Bristol Myers A Pattern Has Emerged
Fortunately we can look at the situation from another angle It looks like all the news around BMY stock in the last three years all the earnings reports drug successes and failures analysts upgrades and downgrades led to the formation of a recognizable Elliott Wave pattern Take a look at it on the daily price chart of Bristol Myers Squibb below
The daily chart reveals that the entire decline from 77 12 can be seen as an A B C flat correction Waves A and B are simple a b c zigzags while wave C appears to be an ending diagonal
Prior to this retracement BMY stock was in an uptrend According to the Wave theory once a correction is over the larger trend resumes If we apply this here it makes sense to expect a bullish reversal as wave 5 of C is poised to complete the entire pattern soon
Despite all the risks the market seems ready to give the BMY Celgene deal its vote of confidence The anticipated rally is supposed to regain all the value lost since July 2016 If this count is correct a revisit of 77 a share is quite possible Once there 90 will not be too far away
Original post |
BMY | 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn t Overlook Bristol Myers BMY | Investors seek growth stocks to capitalize on above average growth in financials that help these securities grab the market s attention and produce exceptional returns But finding a great growth stock is not easy at all
In addition to volatility these stocks carry above average risk by their very nature Also one could end up losing from a stock whose growth story is actually over or nearing its end
However the task of finding cutting edge growth stocks is made easy with the help of the Zacks Growth Style Score part of the Zacks Style Scores system which looks beyond the traditional growth attributes to analyze a company s real growth prospects
Bristol Myers Squibb BMY is on the list of such stocks currently recommended by our proprietary system In addition to a favorable Growth Score it carries a top Zacks Rank
Studies have shown that stocks with the best growth features consistently outperform the market And returns are even better for stocks that possess the combination of a Growth Score of A or B and a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy or 2 Buy
While there are numerous reasons why the stock of this biopharmaceutical company is a great growth pick right now we have highlighted three of the most important factors below
Earnings Growth
Arguably nothing is more important than earnings growth as surging profit levels is what most investors are after And for growth investors double digit earnings growth is definitely preferable and often an indication of strong prospects and stock price gains for the company under consideration
While the historical EPS growth rate for Bristol Myers is 17 4 investors should actually focus on the projected growth The company s EPS is expected to grow 4 7 this year crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of 1 2
Cash Flow Growth
Cash is the lifeblood of any business but higher than average cash flow growth is more beneficial and important for growth oriented companies than for mature companies That s because high cash accumulation enables these companies to undertake new projects without raising expensive outside funds
Right now year over year cash flow growth for Bristol Myers is 24 2 which is higher than many of its peers In fact the rate compares to the industry average of 10 2
While investors should actually consider the current cash flow growth it s worth taking a look at the historical rate too for putting the current reading into proper perspective The company s annualized cash flow growth rate has been 13 6 over the past 3 5 years versus the industry average of 3 3
Promising Earnings Estimate Revisions
Beyond the metrics outlined above investors should consider the trend in earnings estimate revisions A positive trend is a plus here Empirical research shows that there is a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near term stock price movements
There have been upward revisions in current year earnings estimates for Bristol Myers The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has surged 0 2 over the past month
Bottom Line
Bristol Myers has not only earned a Growth Score of B based on a number of factors including the ones discussed above but it also carries a Zacks Rank 1 because of the positive earnings estimate revisions
You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here
This combination positions Bristol Myers well for outperformance so growth investors may want to bet on it |
BMY | Exelixis EXEL Earnings Revenues Beat Estimates In Q1 | Exelixis Inc NASDAQ EXEL delivered better than expected results for first quarter 2019 wherein both earnings and revenues beat estimates on strong performance by Cabometyx The company s shares have lost 0 6 in the year so far against the growth of 2 8 Exelixis reported earnings of 27 cents easily beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents However the bottom line declined from 40 cents in the year ago quarter Net revenues came in at 215 5 million up from 213 7 million in the year ago quarter The top line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 203 6 million Quarter in DetailNet product revenues came in at 179 6 million up 33 7 from the year ago quarter driven by continued growth of Cabometyx in the United States for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma RCC In April 2016 the FDA approved a tablet formulation of cabozantinib distinct from the capsule form under the brand name Cabometyx for the treatment of advanced RCC in patients who have received prior anti angiogenic therapy The company also expanded the drug s label for the treatment of previously untreated advanced RCC in December 2017 Cabometyx generated 175 9 million of net product revenues up from 171 6 million in the prior quarter Patient demand grew 33 year over year and 3 sequentially driven by both RCC and HCC New Prescriptions were up by 17 sequentially Cometriq cabozantinib capsules for the treatment of medullary thyroid cancer generated 3 7 million in net product revenues Total collaboration revenues were 35 9 million compared with 79 5 million in the year ago quarter In the reported quarter research and development expenses increased 67 4 to 63 3 million stemming from personnel expenses and clinical trial costs Selling general and administrative SG A expenses were 60 1 million up 11 3 year over year driven by increases in personnel expenses and stock based compensation Pipeline UpdateThe pipeline progress in the year so far has been encouraging Cabometyx received another FDA approval for the treatment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma HCC in January 2019 In April CheckMate 9ER the phase III trial evaluating the combination of cabozantinib and Opdivoversus Pfizer s NYSE PFE Sutent in patients with previously untreated advanced or metastatic RCC completed enrollment The study was sponsored by Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY and co funded by Exelixis and partners Ipsen and Takeda Exelixis initiated a multicenter randomized double blinded controlled phase III study COSMIC 313 The study is evaluating Cabometyx in combination with Opdivo and Yervoy versus Opdivo and Yervoyin in patients with previously untreated advanced RCC The primary endpoint of the trial is progression free survival and the secondary endpoints are overall survival and objective response rate In January 2019 partner Daiichi Sankyo announced that Minnebro esaxerenone tablets were approved by the Japanese Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare as a treatment for patients with hypertension The compound was identified during the prior research collaboration between Exelixis and Daiichi Sankyo which the companies entered in March 2006 and has been subsequently developed by the latter Exelixis submitted an investigational new drug IND application in February 2019 to the FDA for XL092 a next generation small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting VEGF receptors MET and other kinases implicated in cancer s growth and spread Following the FDA s acceptance of the IND filing the company initiated a phase I dose escalation trial evaluating the pharmacokinetics safety and tolerability of XL092 in patients with advanced solid tumors with the primary objective of determining a dose for daily oral administration of XL092 suitable for further evaluation 2019 GuidanceR D expenses are expected to be between 285 million and 315 million SG A expenses are expected to be between 220 million and 240 million Our TakeExelixis first quarter results were impressive despite headwinds from both an inventory draw down and higher gross to net fees The drug gained market share throughout the first quarter for the RCC indication The initial traction for the HCC indication in the second and third line setting was encouraging as well The company ended the quarter with 34 market share backed by its broad label for advanced RCC The company experienced a 10 increase in Cabometyx s prescriber base from the fourth quarter We expect investors to focus on further label expansion of cabozantinib The drug is also being evaluated in various studies with Roche s OTC RHHBY Tecentriq Zacks Rank
Exelixis currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above would you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year Who wouldn t Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity In 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 the portfolio scored well into double digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as 61 5 And from 2012 2017 while the market boomed 126 3 Zacks Top 10s reached an even more sensational 181 9 |
C | FTSE slips as Citi Goldman results dent banks | FTSE retreats from 56 week closing high
Banks dip as Citigroup Goldman results disappoint
J Sainsbury jumps on bid talk
By Simon Falush
LONDON Oct 15 Reuters Britain s top share index closed
lower on Thursday as banks fell after U S banking earnings
failed to meet some expectations while miners tracked metal
prices down
Bucking the trend J Sainsbury was the day s biggest gainer
on talk of a bid from Qatar
The FTSE 100 ended down 0 6 percent or 33 15 points at
5 222 95 retreating from a 56 week closing high set on
Wednesday
Although third quarter earnings from Goldman Sachs and
Citigroup came in better than analysts forecasts they were
disappointing relative to the much stronger than expected
results from JPMorgan on Wednesday
Barclays HSBC Standard Chartered Royal Bank of Scotland
and Lloyds Banking Group fell 0 4 2 1 percent
We re being firmly dictated by the earnings season said
Joshua Raymond market strategist at City Index
The spectacular results from JP Morgan may well be having a
derogatory effect as the Goldman Sachs and Citi results didn t
live up to them
Miners fell with profit takers moving in as metal prices
retreated Rio Tinto Lonmin Anglo American and Fresnillo fell
0 7 4 1 percent
Anglo American was the biggest faller down 4 1
percent after rival Xstrata said it would not make a formal
takeover offer
Energy stocks were lower as investors banked profits though
oil prices continued to climb BG Group Royal Dutch Shell BP
and Cairn Energy shed 0 6 2 4 percent
Tullow Oil which said in a drilling update the Mahogany 4
well off Ghana had found oil dropped 2 3 percent
The FTSE 100 has surged 51 percent from a six year trough in
March but is still 3 6 percent below its level in mid September
2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers
Sterling racked up its biggest one day gain against a basket
of currencies in nearly a year after Monetary Policy Committee
member Paul Fisher told the Financial Times the Bank of
England s interest rate cuts and injection of money into the
economy were working
SAINSBURY SURGES
Food retailer J Sainsbury topped the FTSE leaderboard up
10 1 percent with traders citing talk of a bid from Qatar
though Sainsbury and the Qatar Investment Authority declined to
comment
Trading in Sainsbury shares was frenetic with volumes more
than nine times the average of the last 90 trading days
The news helped peers Tesco and Wm Morrison rise 1 7 and 1 8
percent respectively
Life Insurers were also in demand after Nomura issued a
bullish note on the sector
Aviva Prudential and Legal General which were the
broker s top European picks rose 0 6 1 1 percent while Friends
Provident and Standard Life climbed 1 3 and 0 8 percent
respectively
Burberry touched a 22 month high rising 2 percent and
extending the previous session s gains as JPMorgan raised its
target price on the luxury goods group and lifted its full year
forecasts after a first half trading update on Wednesday
Reporting by Simon Falush editing by Nigel Stephenson |
C | European stocks edge higher Nokia tumbles | FTSEurofirst 300 ends roller coaster session up 0 1 pct
Nokia tumbles 11 percent on surprise loss big writedown
Sainsbury surges 10 percent on renewed takeover talk
Index s P E ratio at highest since May 2006
By Blaise Robinson
PARIS Oct 15 Reuters European stocks ended slightly
higher on Thursday helped by takeover fever in the retail
sector but gains were limited by Nokia s surprise loss and big
writedown that knocked down tech shares
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed the
roller coaster session 0 1 percent higher at 1 017 26 points
after rising to as high as 1 024 34 a level not seen since Oct
7 2008
Retail stocks rose with J Sainsbury Plc jumping 10 percent
on market talk that Qatar s sovereign wealth fund was planning a
renewed offer for the British grocer after a previous bid
attempt failed in 2007
Volume on Sainsbury shares represented 1 081 percent percent
of the stock s 90 day average daily volume
The M A buzz propelled shares of UK retailers with Tesco up
1 7 percent Wm Morrison Supermarkets up 1 8 percent and
Kingfisher up 2 1 percent
Banks ended the session mixed with HSBC down 2 1 percent
and Deutsche Bank up 0 7 percent after results from Goldman
Sachs and Citigroup failed to impress investors a day after
JPMorgan posted forecast beating profits that fuelled earnings
hopes
Citigroup posted a quarterly per share loss as it suffered
8 billion of credit losses while Goldman s quarterly earnings
rose but its shares dropped on Wall Street on disappointment
that so much of the profit came from trading gains that might
not be sustainable
The big credit losses at Citigroup revives concerns over the
health of the U S economy said Victor Peiro Perez head of
strategy at Caja Madrid Bolsa
Negative earnings especially if it s coming from the
banks could prompt a sector rotation on the market he said
Financial stocks have already priced in an economic
recovery and could reach a plateau while other stocks such as
shares of software makers still have room on the upside
Banking stocks hammered in 2008 have surged 175 percent
since the stock market hit a floor in early March
Nokia tumbled 11 percent after the world s top cellphone
maker unveiled a big writedown at its struggling networks unit
and posted a drop in its smartphone sales from the previous
quarter
TECH SHARES TAKE A BEATING
Profit margins are under pressure Nokia needs to do
some serious cost cutting to adjust to weaker demand said
Christian Blaabjerg chief equity strategist at Saxo Bank
We expect sales to drop more because consumers are
debt haunted in Europe and in the U S making it very unlikely
that they will replace their cellphone with a newer model any
time soon he said
Tech shares took a beating with Alcatel Lucent down 2 3
percent Infineon down 3 7 percent and Atos Origin down 4 5
percent
Around Europe UK s FTSE 100 index fell 0 6 percent
Germany s DAX index shed 0 4 percent and France s CAC 40 inched
0 03 percent higher
The FTSEurofirst 300 has surged 57 percent since reaching a
record low in early March but is still down 38 percent from a
multi year peak reached in mid 2007
The sharp seven month rebound has propelled European stocks
to their highest valuation levels in nearly 3 1 2 years Stocks
in the FTSEurofirst 300 index currently trade at 14 19 times
expected earnings the index s highest price to earnings ratio
since May 2006 according to Thomson Reuters data
Editing by Rupert Winchester |
C | US STOCKS SNAPSHOT Wall St rises on oil financials slip | NEW YORK Oct 15 Reuters U S stocks managed modest
gains on Thursday as rising oil prices underpinned energy
shares but financials retreated as investors panned earnings
from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 46 56 points or
0 46 percent to 10 062 42 The Standard Poor s 500 Index
climbed 4 45 points or 0 41 percent to 1 096 47 The Nasdaq
Composite Index added 1 06 points or 0 05 percent to
2 173 29
Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak Editing by Kenneth Barry |
C | Financial Repression Kicks The Can And Our Butt | More and more we see central bankers around the world but especially here at home and within the EU engaged in financial repression as THE means to solve our economic woes What is A term that describes measures by which governments channel funds to themselves as a form of debt reduction This concept was introduced in 1973 by Stanford economists Edward S Shaw and Ronald I McKinnon Financial repression can include such measures as directed lending to the government caps on interest rates regulation of capital movement between countries and a tighter association between government and banks What are the challenges faced by investors in an era of financial repression Thank you to the reader who shared a recent Citigroup research report Heading for the Great Repression which addresses this question and more Let s navigate Citi highlights Every credit investor should consider the following Why are real yields in so many countries near historical lows despite historically poor fundamentals One key reason is that burgeoning government debt burdens are leading to ever more measures to influence market pricing Financial repression takes many forms but the primary aim is to keep real yields below market clearing levels Some policies are already in place many more will likely follow Central bank balance sheet expansion alone corresponds to almost half the increase in general government debt in the US the UK and the Eurozone since 2008 To begin with repression seems likely to drive more money into risky assets like credit Longer term however history suggests the distortions and even bigger imbalances need to correct with a very negative impact on credit spreads Even during the benign period volatility and uncertainty are likely to be far higher than investors have grown used to thanks to abrupt and far reaching changes in policy Financial repression clearly distorts the pricing of risk in the marketplace What are the numerous forms of financial repression practiced by the central banking grand wizards and what are some of the long term consequences of these practices Bail ins of bank bondholders violates bondholders rights raises the cost of unsecured debt Problem Contagion to comparable banks Bans on undesirable trading practices like naked short selling distorting price discovery likely to reduce liquidity curtailing hedging possibilities Problem Finding an effective water tight definition of naked short selling avoidance Capital controls distortions likely to build up over time may limit return on capital Coercive exchanges reduce the debt burden damage to credibility need to recapitalise banks problem International acceptance technicalities like domestic vs international law debt Deposit interest rate controls negative real interest rates enticing savers to buy government bonds fewer savings for retirement banks more dependent on capital market funding encourages off shore markets Ex post subordination of bondholders in banks and sovereigns lowers political cost of bailouts lower private sector recovery rates raise the cost of unsecured debt increases risk of losing market access Financial transactions taxes negatively impacts bank profitability hinders market liquidity Nationalization of financial institutions costly likely to lead to distortions in allocation of lending takes bank balance sheet on the sovereign balance sheet Regulatory incentives to buy government bonds create captive demand for government bonds through lower risk weights or liquidity requirements crowds out private borrowing may prolong an unsustainable fiscal deficit raises domestic loss in default Citigroup continues a fabulous review by comparing and contrasting our current situation to our domestic economy and market experience post World War II and to that of Japan of the last two decades Citi believes we are much more likely to experience a Japanese style economic experience due to our current level of private indebtedness relative to GDP In that scenario what are the long term risks and consequences of kicking the can down the road via financial repression Try low growth higher deficits increased levels of defaults and ultimately inflation Sounds like fun heh Citi concludes we should not let our guard down Increased financial repression today comes in response to a poor growth and fiscal outlook which bears more resemblance to the experience from Japan than it does to the 1950s and 1960s We don t think the market is fully discounting the shift in trend growth that has actually occurred Figure 18 shows that trend growth expected for the next 10 years is still higher than it was for much of the 1990s Although we don t think the turning point is imminent that leaves us skeptical about the long term durability of the rally we have seen in recent months That said credit is probably better equipped to handle this kind of environment than some other asset classes Both in the US and in Japan financial repression did not prevent tight or rather very tight credit spreads for an extended period In Japan the inevitable spike in default rates as overleveraged companies were unable to adjust to a radically different growth outlook led to a spike in defaults which weighed on credit spreads early on in the crisis Europe probably has to go through a similar process though on a smaller scale Amending and pretending to preserve a capital position won t work for banks indefinitely especially with the Eurozone in recession again That will have a cyclical impact on spreads Ultimately though the biggest danger comes from the possibility that the coming decades may combine the negatives from the US and Japanese experiences low growth and unsustainable fiscal deficits taking financial repression to the point where it becomes inflationary The mountain of un or underfunded pension plans public and private will only make that latter outcome more appealing Where inflation is not an option sovereign restructuring seems the likely solution From a policyholder s perspective a large part of the attraction of financial repression is exactly that it buys you time to fix unsustainable trends by lowering your cost of funding and by creating captive buyers However in so doing financial repression can also to some extent mask the true scale of the problem by suspending the disciplinary effect of the market Why implement painful reforms if no one is forcing you to today The inability of Congress to agree on a comprehensive deficit reduction plan is a good example As we saw in the early 1970s the pain is likely to be all the greater when the regime finally breaks down Note that Citi writes When the regime finally breaks down not If the regime finally breaks down Where are our leaders Thanks again to the reader for sharing For those who would like to read the entire 15 page piece I submit Do your friends family and colleagues a favor and get them to do the same Thanks I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary The opinions expressed are my own I am a proponent of real transparency within our markets our economy and our political realm so that meaningful investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below |
JPM | U S judge dismisses lawsuit over 13 billion JPMorgan Chase settlement | By Lindsay Dunsmuir WASHINGTON Reuters A U S federal judge tossed out a lawsuit brought by non profit group Better Markets that sought to block a 13 billion settlement JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM reached with the U S Justice Department over shoddy mortgage loans sold to investors before the financial crisis Judge Beryl A Howell accepted a motion by the Justice Department filed last May to dismiss the lawsuit which argued that the group founded in 2010 to advocate for tough Wall Street reforms lacked standing to sue The plaintiff has failed to meet its burden to show it has suffered an injury in fact Howell wrote in her opinion filed on Wednesday in the District Court for the District of Columbia Better Markets sued the Justice Department last February contending that the then record settlement reached in November 2013 was unlawful and gave JPMorgan Chase Co blanket civil immunity for its conduct without sufficient judicial review The Justice Department reached a wide ranging deal with the largest U S bank that included a 2 billion civil penalty and a 4 billion consumer relief package Better Markets was seeking to have the court prevent the Justice Department from enforcing the settlement until a judge reviewed it Better Markets Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kelleher said in a statement that the law allowing settlements remained deficient not the advocacy group s lawsuit Such backroom deals should not be allowed in a democracy worthy of its name We will be carefully evaluating the court s opinion before determining our next steps Kelleher said JP Morgan Chase Co declined comment
In a statement the Justice Department welcomed the decision and reiterated that it remains serious about examining the root causes of the financial crisis and holding the appropriate people and companies accountable |
JPM | Exclusive Private equity firms prepare bids for Informatica sources | By Liana B Baker and Greg Roumeliotis Reuters Several private equity firms are preparing to make offers to acquire enterprise software maker Informatica Corp in what could be this year s largest leveraged buyout according to people familiar with the matter Silver Lake Partners LP has teamed up with Hellman Friedman LLC ahead of a deadline for final bids for Informatica that is set for early April the people said on Friday Advent International Corp Permira Advisors LLP Thoma Bravo LLC and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board s private equity arm are also vying for Informatica the people said Some of these four firms could also team up to try to take Informatica private the people added Informatica has a market capitalization of 4 8 billion Shares in Informatica rose 83 cents or 1 9 percent on the news Friday hitting a multiyear high of 45 45 The sources asked not to be identified because the deliberations are confidential Spokespeople for Informatica and the private equity firms declined to comment The biggest leveraged buyout so far this year has been the agreed acquisition of gym operator Life Time Fitness Inc by buyout firms Leonard Green Partners LP and TPG Capital LP for more than 4 billion including debt Redwood City California based Informatica helps companies connect software and enterprise applications and store data It competes in the integration software market with Tibco a company that went private in December in a 4 3 billion sale to buyout firm Vista Equity Partners Activist hedge fund Elliott Management Corp disclosed an 8 percent stake in Informatica on Jan 26 and said in a regulatory filing it was speaking to the company s management and board about ways to maximize shareholder value A person familiar with the matter said at the time that Elliott may call for Informatica to be sold An auction for Informatica run by investment banking boutique Qatalyst Partners LP was put on hold in early January after interest received from private equity firms failed to lead to a deal Reuters previously reported A number of well known technology companies have been targeted by activist investors in recent years as the sector undergoes rapid change and older technology companies sit on large amounts of cash JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM is now advising Informatica in addition to its previous financial adviser Qatalyst Partners LP JPMorgan declined to comment while Qataylst could not be reached for comment |
JPM | ChemChina to buy Italian tire maker Pirelli in 7 7 billion deal | By Paola Arosio and Danilo Masoni MILAN Reuters China National Chemical Corp ChemChina is to buy Pirelli MI PECI the world s fifth largest tire maker in a 7 1 billion euro 7 7 billion deal that will place one of the symbols of Italy s manufacturing industry in Chinese hands The deal agreed with Pirelli shareholders on Sunday is the latest in a string of takeovers in Italy by cash rich Chinese buyers who can take advantage of a weak euro just as signs emerge that Europe is coming out of economic stagnation It will give state owned ChemChina led by acquisitive chairman Ren Jianxin access to technology to make premium tires which can be sold at higher margins and give the Italian firm a boost in the huge Chinese market The bid for Pirelli marks a return of China s state owned enterprises SOEs to global dealmaking following a hiatus prompted by President Xi Jinping s anti graft crackdown that targeted several current and former senior SOE officials It would be China s fifth biggest outbound deal by an SOE according to Thomson Reuters data and the first major acquisition since China s MMG Ltd HK 1208 led a consortium last year to buy the huge Las Bambas copper mine in Peru from Glencore L GLEN ChemChina s tire making unit China National Tire Rubber will first buy the 26 2 percent that Italian holding firm Camfin owns in Pirelli and will then launch a mandatory takeover bid for the rest The bid will be launched by a vehicle controlled by the Chinese state owned group and part owned by Camfin investors who include Pirelli boss Marco Tronchetti Provera Italian banks UniCredit MI CRDI and Intesa Sanpaolo MI ISP and Russia s Rosneft MM ROSN Camfin said in a statement The offer will be launched at 15 euros per share valuing the group at 7 1 billion euros excluding net debt of almost 1 billion euros at the end of 2014 The ChemChina unit also envisages taking Pirelli private As details of the deal were leaked on Friday shares in Milan listed Pirelli which started business 143 years ago producing rubber items rose to a 25 year high and closed at 15 23 euros a sign that traders predict an improved offer or a rival bid Sources close to the matter said on Friday the deal with the Chinese group will mean Rosneft which is facing international sanctions due to the Ukraine crisis and needs to cut debt reduces its stake in Pirelli MORE BANDWIDTH The agreement would give Beijing based ChemChina access to technology used in making lucrative premium tires and could help China already a global player in sectors such as telecoms and internet develop its automotive industry In turn Pirelli whose tires equip cars in Formula One motor racing would have more bandwidth to compete against larger rivals such as Michelin PA MICP and Continental DE CONG which are looking for growth in Asia Camfin said on Sunday Pirelli s less profitable truck and industrial tire business would be folded into ChemChina s listed unit AEOLUS SS 600469 allowing it to double its output The new Chinese owners will pick a new chairman while Tronchetti Provera who started working in the tire maker in 1986 after marrying a member of the Italian family that founded the firm will remain chief executive We re pleased to have this opportunity working with Tronchetti and his team and continue to build together a world class entity and a market leader in the global tire business Ren said in a statement Previous Chinese acquisitions in Italy the euro zone s third largest economy include stakes in power grid firms Terna MI TRN and Snam MI SRG turbine maker Ansaldo and luxury yacht maker Ferretti FRREF UL Excluding the financial sector Italy is the second biggest acquisition market for China in Europe and fifth largest worldwide with 10 deals completed since the start of 2014 according to Thomson Reuters data Rothschild and ChemChina Finance Corp advised ChemChina J P Morgan N JPM advised China National Tire Rubber while Lazard was the financial adviser to Camfin
1 0 9221 euros |
JPM | U S Supreme Court rejects singer Rundgren s Chase suit appeal | By Dena Aubin Reuters The U S Supreme Court on Monday declined to revive a lawsuit by singer songwriter Todd Rundgren and his wife Michele accusing JPMorgan Chase NYSE JPM of wrongfully attempting to foreclose on the couple s Kilauea Hawaii home The court s rejection of the couple s appeal lets stand a lower court s dismissal of their claims for damages and an order to stop a foreclosure sale The Rundgrens lawyer Gary Dubin said the couple are still in their home and have other defenses to fight the foreclosure This is just the beginning Dubin said by email JPMorgan spokesman Jason Lobo declined comment Rundgren set to begin a U S tour in April is best known for such 1970s hits as Hello It s Me and I Saw the Light The Rundgrens dispute stems from a 3 million refinancing loan the couple arranged with Washington Mutual Bank several months before the bank failed in 2008 Chase bought that bank s assets including the Rundgrens loan out of receivership in 2008 In court filings Chase said it started foreclosure proceedings in 2009 after the Rundgrens defaulted on their 17 060 monthly mortgage payments The Rundgrens lawsuit alleged that their mortgage was void because of numerous fraudulent acts by Washington Mutual Bank also called WaMu when the bank originated the loan The lawsuit said WaMu created a false loan application exaggerated the Rundgrens income and used a false appraisal for their home The lawsuit said WaMu tricked the Rundgrens into signing the mortgage without giving the couple time to read it and understand its terms The loan had been switched from a fixed rate to an adjustable rate loan the lawsuit said In a motion to dismiss the case filed in 2010 Chase argued that it was not liable for WaMu s actions The bank said that when it bought WaMu s loans from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp its purchase agreement provided that Chase would not assume related liabilities Hawaii s U S District Court and the San Francisco based U S Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit agreed saying claims involving WaMu loans have to be resolved in administrative proceedings at the FDIC The courts cited the 1989 Financial Institutions Reform Recovery and Enforcement Act which gave the FDIC broad authority to address claims against failed banks In seeking a Supreme Court review Dubin had argued that it defied logic to leave the couple exposed to foreclosure while they pursued administrative claims
The case is Todd Rundgren et al petitioners v Washington Mutual Bank et al No 14 865 |
JPM | China March flash HSBC PMI contracts to 11 month low fans policy easing expectations | By Kevin Yao BEIJING Reuters Activity in China s factory sector dipped to a 11 month low in March as new orders shrank a private survey showed signaling persistent weakness in the world s second largest economy that will likely fuel calls for more policy easing to support growth The poor reading added to signs that the economy has lost momentum despite two interest rate cuts since November a reduction in the amount of money banks must keep in reserve and repeated attempts by the central bank to reduce financing costs The flash HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index PMI dipped to 49 2 in March below the 50 point level that separates growth in activity from contraction on a monthly basis Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 50 6 slightly weaker than February s final PMI of 50 7 Some analysts expect first quarter economic growth to dip below the government s new full year target of 7 percent widely seen as the level needed to keep employment steady The weaker PMI data could increase pressure for policy loosening economists at CICC said in a research note They predicted the central bank would cut banks reserve requirement ratios RRR six more times this year on top of another interest rate cut JPMorgan NYSE JPM said the next RRR cut may come as soon as April Asia stocks fell after the PMI report on Tuesday with shares in Shanghai skidding more than 2 percent while the Australian dollar dipped MKTS GLOB However a separate industry survey released by China Beige Book CBB on Monday showed that while Chinese firms grew even more wary of borrowing and investing in the first quarter they still managed to defend profit margins thanks to lower input costs for commodities and labor With firm performance and the labor market both in decent shape the absence of heavy stimulus should be surprising only to those analysts who still make policy predictions based on GDP Leland Miller president of CBB wrote in the report JOB SHEDDING The PMI survey suggested that manufacturers faced considerable challenges from weaker domestic demand and deflationary risks The new orders sub index fell to a 11 month low of 49 3 in March New export orders decreased for a second straight month albeit at a slower pace Strains on the job market continued to rise with the employment sub index contracting for a 17th straight month and hitting its lowest since the depths of the global financial crisis China s leaders have said they would be willing to tolerate somewhat slower growth as long as the labor market remained resilient A renewed fall in total new business contributed to a weaker expansion of output while companies continued to trim their workforce numbers said Annabel Fiddes an economist at Markit said Manufacturing companies continued to benefit from falling input costs stemming from the recent global oil price decline However relatively muted client demand has led firms to pass on savings in a bid to boost new work and cut their selling prices at a similarly sharp rate In Japan a similar manufacturing survey added to concerns that its slowly recovering economy also may be losing momentum with activity expanding at a much slower clip as domestic orders contracted GROWTH WEAKENING China s economy faces increased downward pressure this year but the slowdown is stabilizing with employment and services among the bright spots Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said on Sunday Weighed down by a property downturn factory overcapacity and local debt growth is expected to slow to a quarter century low of around 7 percent this year from 7 4 percent in 2014 even with expected additional stimulus measures Data so far in 2015 indicate the new growth target may already be at risk though the Asia Development Bank said on Tuesday that it still expects 7 2 percent growth this year Annual economic growth could slow to 6 85 percent in the first quarter from 7 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences a top government think tank said in a research report on Sunday It expected growth to cool further to 6 8 percent in the second quarter China s third largest listed lender Agricultural Bank of China Ltd AgBank SS 601288 HK 1288 late on Tuesday reported weaker than expected profit and a rise in bad loans as slowing economic growth hit borrowers in the manufacturing wholesale and retail sectors in particular Bad loans to manufacturers rose to 3 69 percent at the end of 2014 from 2 86 percent a year earlier Those to wholesalers and retailers more than doubled to 5 93 percent from 2 36 percent Meanwhile central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan cautioned against loosening monetary policy abruptly saying that could undermine structural reforms
The government also plans to run its biggest budget deficit in 2015 since the global crisis to boost spending but analysts doubt investment will pick up sharply this year given that local governments are hard pressed by piles of debt |
BMY | Bristol Myers BMY Moves To Buy Rationale Behind The Upgrade | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY appears an attractive pick as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 Buy An upward trend in earnings estimates one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices has triggered this rating change
The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company s changing earnings picture The Zacks Consensus Estimate the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell side analysts covering the stock for the current and following years is tracked by the system
The power of a changing earnings picture in determining near term stock price movements makes the Zacks rating system highly useful for individual investors since it can be difficult to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts These are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time
Therefore the Zacks rating upgrade for Bristol Myers basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices
The change in a company s future earnings potential as reflected in earnings estimate revisions and the near term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company s shares An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock and institutional investors typically buy or sell it Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock
Fundamentally speaking rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade for Bristol Myers imply an improvement in the company s underlying business Investors should show their appreciation for this improving business trend by pushing the stock higher
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near term stock movements so it could be truly rewarding if such revisions are tracked for making an investment decision Here is where the tried and tested Zacks Rank stock rating system plays an important role as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions
The Zacks Rank stock rating system which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups ranging from Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy to Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sell has an impressive externally audited track record with Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of 25 since 1988 You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here
Earnings Estimate Revisions for Bristol Myers
This biopharmaceutical company is expected to earn 4 16 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2019 which represents a year over year change of 4 5
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Bristol Myers Over the past three months the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 0 3
Bottom Line
Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of buy and sell ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time Irrespective of market conditions only the top 5 of the Zacks covered stocks get a Strong Buy rating and the next 15 get a Buy rating So the placement of a stock in the top 20 of the Zacks covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature making it a solid candidate for producing market beating returns in the near term
You can learn more about the Zacks Rank here
The upgrade of Bristol Myers to a Zacks Rank 2 positions it in the top 20 of the Zacks covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions implying that the stock might move higher in the near term |
C | US STOCKS SNAPSHOT Futures pare losses after data | NEW YORK Oct 15 Reuters U S stock index futures pared
losses on Thursday after data showed weekly initial and
continuing jobless claims fell while a gauge of New York State
manufacturing unexpectedly jumped in October
Futures earlier fell following quarterly results from
Goldman Sachs Group and Citigroup Inc
S P 500 futures fell 4 7 points and were below fair value
a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account
interest rates dividends and time to expiration on the
contract Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 30 points
and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 8 25 points |
C | Europe shares retreat from 1 year high banks fall | FTSEurofirst 300 up 0 1 percent having hit 1 year high
Pares gains after Goldman Citi results
Nokia slumps 10 percent after results
Sainsbury up on stake talk
For up to the minute market news click on
By Brian Gorman
LONDON Oct 15 Reuters European shares hit a fresh
12 month high on Thursday but pared gains after third quarter
earnings at U S giants Goldman Sachs and Citigroup disappointed
some investors
Results at mobile phone giant Nokia also hit sentiment
At 1246 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European
shares was up 0 1 percent at 1 016 79 points having been as
high as 1 024 34 the highest since Oct 7 2008
The index which jumped 2 1 percent in the previous session
is up more than 57 percent from the lifetime low it hit in early
March as investors have become more confident of the prospects
for economic recovery
Strong earnings from companies including JPMorgan helped the
Dow Jones to surge through the 10 000 mark on Wednesday
But the index retreated from the highs after U S banking
giants reported results
European banks which had been a major contributor to the
benchmark s rise earlier in the session were lower after the
results Barclays Credit Suisse and HSBC were down between 1 3
and 1 8 percent
Goldman Sachs reported net income applicable to common
shareholders rose to 3 028 billion or 5 25 a share compared
with 810 million or 1 81 a share in last year s quarter
ended August 29
Its shares fell 2 percent in pre market trade
They are better than expected but there was talk of them
coming in at 6 so that s why they have sold off a bit after
the figures It s a good result but the market will be a touch
disappointed because JPMorgan flew through expectations said
Arifa Sheikh Usmani equity trader at Spreadex
Citigroup posted a quarterly loss to shareholders as it
suffered 8 billion of credit losses raising further questions
about the future of the bank that is one third owned by the U S
government
NOKIA FALLS
Nokia fell more than 10 percent after the world s top
cellphone maker reported a surprise loss for the July September
quarter hit by a major writedown at its networks unit though
it said demand for handsets had improved
On the upside UK supermarket group J Sainsbury rose 11 1
percent with traders citing renewed interest from the Qatari
sovereign wealth fund A Sainsbury spokeswoman declined to
comment on the talk
The Qatari fund built up a stake currently around 26
percent according to Reuters data during a takeover offer
which they ditched in Nov 2007 due to the credit crisis
Tesco was up 2 percent while Morrison rose 2 6 percent
Across Europe Britain s FTSE 100 Germany s DAX and
France s CAC 40 were down between 0 5 and 0 8 percent
Futures for the Dow Jones S P 500 and Nasdaq were down
between 0 3 and 0 6 percent though new weekly jobless claims
fell to a nine month low and a gauge of New York State
manufacturing unexpectedly rose
Additional reporting by Harpreet Bhal editing by Jon
Loades Carter |
C | US STOCKS Wall St set to fall after Citigroup Goldman results | Goldman Sachs Citigroup report results
New York manufacturing gauge jumps in October
Weekly jobless claims less than expected
For up to the minute market news click STXNEWS US
Updates economic data analysts comments
By Edward Krudy
NEW YORK Oct 15 Reuters Wall Street was set for a
lower open on Thursday after quarterly results from Goldman
Sachs Group and Citigroup Inc failed to live up to expectations
some investors had for financial sector shares
Although the earnings from Goldman and Citigroup came in
better than the analysts forecasts their results came a day
after much stronger than expected numbers from JPMorgan Chase
Co drove stocks to new yearly highs and raised hopes that other
banks would follow suit
JPMorgan set a high bar a bar that is tough to beat for
other banks said Tim Ghriskey chief investment officer for
Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills New York
Shares in Goldman Sachs fell 2 2 percent before the bell to
188 01 while Citigroup dropped 2 6 percent to 4 87
S P 500 futures fell 5 50 points and were below fair value
a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account
interest rates dividends and time to expiration on the
contract Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 37 points
and Nasdaq futures lost 7 75 point
On Wednesday the Dow industrials broke the psychologically
important 10 000 level for the first time since October 2008
Generally the market s got a pretty good rise and for
some traders the expectation is to sell on the news no matter
how the numbers come out said Steve Goldman market
strategist for Weeden Co in Greenwich Connecticut
Futures paired some of their losses after a gauge of
manufacturing in New York State jumped unexpectedly this month
to its highest in five years and government data showed the
number of U S workers filing new claims for jobless insurance
unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level since January
The markets are going to be focused on company revenue
today The jobless number may cause markets to cut some of
their losses but earnings will remain the focus today said
Subodh Kumar chief investment strategist Subodh Kumar
Associates in Toronto |
C | POLL Long term lead copper price forecasts up sharply | Long term lead price forecast up 40 percent
Aluminium prices under pressure from overcapacity
Tin production lacks diversity
By Pratima Desai
LONDON Oct 15 Reuters Long term price forecasts for
industrial metals lead and copper have been raised sharply due
to potentially stronger demand over coming years meeting scarce
supplies a Reuters survey showed
Forecasts for long term aluminium prices have in contrast
been cut because of expectations of overcapacity especially in
China Nickel and zinc forecasts in the survey carried out over
the last three weeks were little changed
The average of 12 forecasts for the long term lead price was
1 677 a tonne up 40 percent from the previous survey published
in Oct 2008 mainly because of expectations Chinese output
capacity will be slashed due to poisoning fears
Global lead consumption mostly for batteries is estimated
at above 8 million tonnes a year Lead was trading at around
2 200 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday
The planets are lining up for lead Chinese pollution
problems promise to raise costs globally said David Thurtell
analyst at Citigroup
Long term prices are used by analysts to evaluate future
share price prospects and potential revenues of mining companies
such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto
For a graphic of the results from the survey of long term
base metal price forecasts click on
The average of 15 forecasts for long term 10 years plus
copper prices was 4 850 a tonne up 10 percent from Oct
2008 The three month future or benchmark price on Thursday was
6 165 a tonne
Signs are that over the next few years shortages will
develop in some metals Copper stands out Thurtell said
The commodities cycle isn t broken it just had a puncture
The global financial crisis meant new projects were put on hold
and that has resulted in supply destruction
Analysts expect demand for copper used in power and
construction to be heavily reliant on China the world s largest
consumer said to account for more than 30 percent of annual
global consumption estimated at about 16 million tonnes
LACK OF DIVERSITY
Long term price forecasts are also used to assess costs for
consumers such as auto makers which use about 30 percent of
global aluminium production estimated at around 35 million
tonnes this year
The long term price forecast for aluminium was cut 10
percent to 2 474 a tonne Three month aluminium was trading at
1 890 a tonne on Thursday
Aluminium is oversupplied and it s relatively easy to
expand capacity or build new capacity said Robin Bhar analyst
at Calyon It could take several year to whittle those down
Stocks of aluminium at above 4 5 million tonnes in London
Metal Exchange warehouses are a whisper away from record highs
set earlier this year But that number only includes visible
stocks and analysts say the real number could be a lot higher
Tin stocks too at above 26 000 tonnes are at their highest
since March 2003 But the long term price forecast is 16 percent
higher at 14 500 a tonne not far from three month future
trading at 14 325
We think tin s upward price bias has much to do with the
fact that it lacks diversity in its production base MF Global
said in a research note
As production out of China now no longer a substantial
exporter continues to fall due to declining ore grades the
tin market is becoming overly dependent on Indonesian and to a
slightly lesser extent Peruvian supply with all the production
and or political problems that this entails
Global annual tin usage is estimated at 360 000 tonnes a
year the bulk of which is produced by China and Indonesia
The long term price forecast for steel ingredients nickel
and zinc were little changed at 16 535 and 1 800 a tonne
Three month nickel was at 18 300 a tonne and zinc at
2 005
For a TAKE A LOOK on stories for LME Week please see
For blogs on the event please see
For table of long term 2009 and 2010 average price
forecasts click on
For story on 2009 2010 average price forecasts click on
For analysts comments on industrial metals click on
For latest survey of economic indicators for G7 countries
click on
Reporting by Pratima Desai and Veronica Brown graphics by
Scott Barber editing by Sue Thomas |
C | US STOCKS SNAPSHOT Wall St edges lower after data earnings | NEW YORK Oct 15 Reuters U S stocks fell on Thursday
after a survey showed regional factory activity grew less than
expected in October and quarterly results from Goldman Sachs
Group and Citigroup Inc underwhelmed investors
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its index of
business conditions in the U S Mid Atlantic region fell in
October to 11 5 from 14 1 in September
Earlier data showed the number of workers filing new claims
for jobless insurance hit a nine month low last week and
separately a gauge of manufacturing in New York State jumped
unexpectedly this month to its highest in five years
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 23 20 points or
0 23 percent to 9 992 66 The Standard Poor s 500 Index
dropped 3 37 points or 0 31 percent to 1 088 65 The Nasdaq
Composite Index dropped 7 08 points or 0 33 percent to
2 165 15 |
C | Winds Blow Cold for Bonds and Gold | On February 14th one month ago we pondered Long Bonds and Yen Big Shorts for 2012 Japan s currency which we shorted circa Feb 14 has been in freefall the past four weeks from 77 to 83 yen to the dollar As the yen declines in value USD JPY rises And now this week we may be seeing the long bond breakdown Treasury bonds as you know have long been the safe haven of last resort for frightened capital in a low inflation low opportunity environment While the finances of the U S government are terrible Treasurys have been a least bad option in a world of high unemployment stagnating economies and elevated risk What s more those who remain bullish on bonds like Gary Shilling foresee more of the same in terms of economic malaise high unemployment and general doldrums not to mention slow motion crisis in Europe But 30 year yields around 3 have always been a temporary proposition With any sign of genuine economic recovery the risk to bondholders is a flight to safety reversal a return to risk that sees investor capital pouring out of treasuries and back into stocks Tuesday s widespread equity breakout which came on the back of the best retail sales since September a JP Morgan JPM dividend hike and a complacent Fed have now taken the markets to pre crisis levels The major indices are at their highest levels since June 2008 The Nasdaq stretching back even further has surpassed 3 000 for the first time since the year 2000 Legendary investor George Soros has noted that a self reinforcing market perception needs to pass a series of tests and with each successful test the perception gets stronger Having overcome last week s brief correction conditions are now in place for a melt up in which investors show more fear of being out than in Perceptions of an accelerating U S recovery are extremely negative for bonds for the following reasons Greater risk appetite increases the odds of capital rotation out of safe havens and into stocks Perceptions of accelerating recovery against a low inflation backdrop with rising inflation a long term likelihood makes low yielding treasuries finally appear toxic Perceptions of accelerating recovery allow the Fed to hang back providing less support for treasuries through its various buy programs The current backdrop is also an ugly one for gold The yellow metal is performing poorly for at least a few reasons Due to general economic weakness this is still being perceived as a low inflation recovery with accelerated inflation something to worry about far off in future In an environment favorable to equities and dividend yielding assets gold is seen as second class for its lack of yield and lack of economic participation As we wrote some time ago gold is a kind of a form of catastrophe insurance taken out against risks of a world gone wrong With Europe s slow motion crisis more or less contained the CDS aspect of gold is no longer appealing The U S centric nature of the recovery coupled with China slowdown fears and Europe s troubles mean that the dollar is slowly strengthening even as the euro is more actively debased think LTRO another headwind for precious metals Another way to look at it is like this Consumer retail and consumer tech have been the king of all asset classes In spite of all the concerns over rising unemployment a stagnating U S economy and tens of millions of left behinds the contingent of U S spenders with money have been out there spending This has led to dominant performance from specialty retailers restaurant chains department stores and other domestic based themes catering to the 30 of Americans who still have ample discretionary income This group has had the virtue of being isolated from European crisis global slowdown threats creeping oil prices and other general concerns In a sense the purchasing power of the moneyed U S consumer has been macro proof and an incredibly mild winter has only cemented this sense of invincibility Against such a backdrop and with the weaker environs of the U S economy holding back wages and thus holding back inflation who needs to worry about gold Weak Europe Decelerating China Overbought Oil It s still a trader s environment though because as we noted last week in China Brazil and Spain Flip the Script global slowdown fears outside the U S are becoming a problem The global liquidity cycle has already rolled over Assuming that no fresh action is taken world economic growth will peak within a couple of months and then fade in the second half of the year with grim implications for Europe s Latin bloc Data collected by Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors shows that M1 money supply growth in the big G7 economies and leading E7 emerging powers buckled over the winter The gauge known as six month real narrow money peaked at 5 1pc in November It dropped to 3 6pc in January and to 2 1pc in February This is comparable to falls seen in mid 2008 in the months leading up to the Great Recession and which caught central banks so badly off guard The speed of the drop off is worrying This acts with a six months lag time so we can expect global growth to peak in May There may be a sharp slowdown in the second half said Mr Ward UK Telegraph And here is more trouble China Has Biggest Trade Shortfall Since 1989 on Europe Turmoil The deficit was the first in a year and largest in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1990 The previous record shortfall during that time was 7 87 billion in February 2004 Report Shows Depth of Distress in Europe Financial conditions have improved but they are still strained there has been basically no growth in advanced economies in five years After half a century of trade surpluses Japan is now in deficit A sudden rise in bond yields could seriously worsen the government s debt dynamics If banks are forced to cut their lending this would depress growth and lead to a withdrawal of liquidity from global capital markets So weighted against a new positive sentiment breakout for U S equities and the U S domestic economy we continue to see a real threat of global slowdown and economic drag from the malaise in Europe This dynamic is creating a tailwind for the U S dollar and putting pressure on European currencies along with the Australian dollar AUD USD which has become something of a proxy for China s natural resource appetite and growth prospects A final interesting note on oil how much of oil s appreciation is purely speculative According to Tim Evans an oil analyst with Citigroup money managers now hold a record net long exposure to oil through 638 774 futures contracts which at 1 000 barrels per contract equates to about 638 8 million barrels of oil That s about 290 days worth of Iranian oil exports says Evans Which implies that we ve already priced in a nine month outage from Iran And that s without a single shot fired In a way oil speculators are betting on the likelihood of war with Iran Because without a material disruption in supply at some point the price will have to return to something more reflective of demand fundamentals which aren t terribly strong at the moment In the U S the world s biggest oil consumer demand is close to a 15 year low China s economy is set to expand at its slowest pace since 2004 Businessweek A backdrop of global slowdown firming dollar would not generally be considered oil bullish Then add into the mix OPEC pumps record volumes despite demand worry Reuters and one has reason to wonder This may help explain why energy stocks have performed relatively poorly as of late And a near term fall in the price of oil perhaps on realization that crude has been bid up more on speculation than logic could be construed as further bullish for the low inflation recovery perception driving U S markets Disclosure This content is general info only not to be taken as investment advice |
C | Danske Daily March 14 2012 | Key news As expected last night s FOMC statement stroke an upbeat tone while keeping the policy outlook unchanged US banking sector stress test results were broadly positive The strong rally in US equities has fuelled Asian gains this morning Today s rate decision in Norway will be closely followed we expect no changesMarkets Overnight Last night s FOMC statement was largely as expected as Fed officials held their course while sounding slightly more upbeat than in January There were no changes to the policy outlook with the statement still indicating that rates will be kept exceptionally low through late 2014 repeated and that all QE programmes will continue The backward looking part of the statement acknowledged the improvement on the labour market while noting that the unemployment rate remains elevated The impact of the rise in energy prices on inflation was viewed as temporary in nature In our view the Fed will keep rates unchanged until mid 2014 see dated 13 March 2012 for details The US Fed released banking sector stress test results two days ahead of time The results were broadly positive indicating that 15 out of the 19 banks would be able to maintain capital levels above a regulatory minimum in an extremely adverse economic scenario even while continuing to pay dividends and repurchasing stock Only if their core capital ratios remained above 5 the banks would be allowed to increase their payout to shareholders The financial institutions that failed the test were Citigroup SunTrust Banks Ally Financial and MetLife see and US equities were underpinned by solid economic data as sales at US retailers showed solid gains in February act 1 1 m m cons 1 1 m m prev 0 4 m m Stocks lost some momentum in the wake of the FOMC statement but climbed later in the session as support was stemming from the US stress test result driving the S P financials index to a 3 9 gain Overall the rally pushed the Nasdaq index above 3 000 the highest level in eleven years while the S P500 index reached the highest levels since mid 2008 The positive sentiment has carried over to Asia this morning where the key indices are trading with large gains US bond yields moved higher driven by the lack of easing signals in the FOMC statement Furthermore the robust economic data and healthy gains in risky assets added to the losses for holders of Treasuries In the FX market JPY has sustained further losses being the big loser in the recent USD recovery The trend lower in EUR USD has also persisted as stronger US data haveoutweighed the positive impact on EUR from rising risk appetite Global Daily Focus today We have a couple of interesting releases today We expect to see a rebound in euro area industrial production in January with an increase of 0 3 m m Also details on the February euro area inflation will be released where we expect to see a minor increase in core inflation to 1 6 from 1 5 in January However with regard to inflation it is mainly the contribution from increasing oil prices that is in focus This time around we do not expect any response from the ECB In the UK data on jobless claims and the unemployment rate could attract attention In the US current account data will be released but focus is more likely to be on Ben Bernanke who will be given a chance to elaborate on the FOMC statement when he will be speaking in Nashville In Scandi markets focus will be on the rate decision in Norway see Scandi Daily for details Fixed income markets US rate markets broke some important support levels yesterday and are now establishing a new trading range With strong retail sales and a slightly more upbeat Fed the strong 10yr auction was not sufficient to prevent 10yr Treasuries to move through the 2 06 2 08 levels They are now trading 2 15 the highest since October and the next support area is around 2 20 2 25 and then 2 40 The surrendering in the US markets overnight is likely to have some rub off effect on the European swap curve which is likely to see a bearish steepening again today In the euro government bond market Italy is printing up to EUR5bn 2 15 bonds and up to EUR1bn 4 19 bonds We look for healthy demand at the auctions given the recent improvement in the conditions of the Italian sovereign debt market Tonight the US Treasury will issue USD13bn 30yr bonds and it will be interesting to see if investors increase their bid after the sell off FX markets The recent bout of USD strength has been somewhat puzzling as it has coincided with strong performance in risky assets However the continuous flow of strong US data has move front end yield spreads in the dollar s favour and the move lower in EUR USD in March is consistent with the narrowing of the EUR USD yield spread as investors have priced out the probability of further Fed QE As the Fed remains firmly on hold this should also imply that the downside to EUR USD is limited however In this respect focus will be on today s speech by Bernanke In terms of USD JPY apart from USD strength we have also seen JPY specific factors drive the move higher including the worsening of Japan s external balances and more aggressive BoJ easing For a hint on the future direction of the pair we will also keep an eye on the investment plans of Japanese life insurers which are usually published late March Scandi Daily Norway We expect no change in interest rates from Norges Bank today This is also the consensus view Hence all eyes will be on what signals the bank sends out about future monetary policy in the monetary policy report It is unlikely to indicate any imminent change in interest rates so the new interest rate path in the monetary policy report will be key Strong growth in the domestic economy including a tight housing market argues against cutting interest rates and actually for a rate hike On the other hand the strong NOK argues against a rate hike and for a rate cut All in all we expect the new monetary policy report to present a downward adjustment of the interest rate path by 50 80bp in 2012 and 2013 but it will not point to a rate cut Nevertheless this will be significantly above the current market pricing The signals of the impact on monetary policy from a stronger NOK have been blurry recently We think NB will acknowledge that there are fundamental factors behind the appreciation and that rate cuts will have a limited impact on inflation and competitiveness in the medium and long term However it will make it perfectly clear that there are limits to how large an appreciation it can accept Hence a more aggressive approach than seen in the annual address in February If we see a spike in EUR NOK today we will use it go long NOK |
C | Improving US Outlook Denies QE3 | Last night s Fed meeting was a lesson in expectation management The FOMC had a difficult decision to make and it had been made all the more tricky by recent improvements in data in particular the US jobs market The Fed acknowledged this improvement by saying that it expected moderate growth over the coming year and this to be backed up by a gradual decline in unemployment Equities took to this like a duck to water and pushed US markets to the highest level since the middle part of 2008 The dollar also found strength in the news as well with GBPUSD coming back into the mid 1 56s and EURUSD trading consistently below 1 31 in the aftermath The dollar s rally was started yesterday by a good US retail sales number which rose by their fastest pace for 5 months while the results of a recent bout of stress testing on US banks also soothed investor panic The Fed released the results of the stress tests 2 days early following JP Morgan s decision to announce that it had passed them in a release to shareholders 15 of the 19 banks passed the tests with Citigroup the major failure GBPEUR bounced back from oversold levels yesterday in good order and now resides above the 1 20 level Sterling was helped by some corporate buying but it was euro weakness that was the main driver of this move A report from the EU ECB IMF troika that Greece will need further budget cuts within 2 months should it become evident that it is missing deficit reduction targets became public yesterday This will cause further division come election time mid April Sterling may be hard pressed to stay above 1 20 this morning with the publication of the latest round of unemployment figures Unlike the US the UK s unemployment picture has gradually deteriorated in the past 6 months and expectations are that they will remain that way through 2012 The unemployment is expected to stay at 8 4 the highest since 1996 while around 5 000 more people are expected to be new JSA claimants The euro crisis are you protected has teamed up with and to host a unique event for business leaders The seminar will feature a series of short presentations taking a closer look at the Eurozone crisis and how this will affect your business in 2012 before exploring some of the ways you can protect yourself from any potential fallout Register for our free seminar on 29 March or ask for a copy of our whitepaper Latest exchange rates at time of writing |
JPM | Authorities closing in on hackers who stole JPMorgan data NYT | Reuters Federal authorities investigating the data breach at JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM are confident that a criminal case will be filed against the hackers in the coming months the New York Times reported citing people briefed on the investigation JPMorgan said last October that names addresses phone numbers and email addresses of about 83 million customers were exposed in a hacking attack making it one of the biggest data breaches in history Law enforcement officials believe that several of the suspects are gettable meaning that they live in a country with which the United States has an extradition treaty the newspaper reported The case is advancing quickly partly because the attack was not as sophisticated as initially believed and law enforcement authorities were able to identify at least some suspects early on the Times reported The investigation is being handled at the highest levels of law enforcement with the FBI in New York assigning several senior agents to the matter along with a top prosecutor with the computer crimes division at Manhattan U S Attorney Preet Bharara s office the newspaper said JPMorgan officials declined to comment
The FBI and Bharara s office were not immediately available for comment outside regular U S business hours |
JPM | U S warns banks it may revoke some money laundering settlements | By Brett Wolf
HOLLYWOOD Fla Reuters Some banks that have non prosecution agreements over failures to police transactions for criminal activity could see those deals withdrawn and be forced to plead guilty a U S Justice Department official said on Monday
The criminal division will not hesitate to tear up that agreement when that action is appropriate Assistant Attorney General Leslie Caldwell told an Association of Certified Anti Money Laundering Specialists conference
The USA Patriot Act in 2001 tightened anti money laundering laws in an effort to cut off terrorist financing The Justice Department has since entered into non prosecution agreements NPAs and deferred prosecution agreements DPAs with financial institutions accused of anti money laundering failures that allowed criminal activity to flourish
Justice has made such deals in the last three years with HSBC Holdings Plc LONDON HSBA Standard Chartered LONDON STAN Plc JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM and Commerzbank AG XETRA CBKG The agreements allow cases to be settled in return for fines and pledges by banks to prevent a recurrence of the violations
Caldwell declined to name banks in danger of having deals revoked but said she expected that to happen in some cases
We don t want DPAs and NPAs to be perceived as a cost of doing business she said
The agreements give the Justice Department leverage to require banks to improve their compliance programs and go beyond a simple guilty plea to settle criminal charges Caldwell said
However the Justice Department lately has seen a number of repeat offenders in which banks with agreements still in force engaged in additional criminal activity Caldwell said
Just as an individual on probation faces a range of potential consequences for a violation of probation so too does a bank or other financial institution that breaches a deferred prosecution agreement or a non prosecution agreement Caldwell said
She cited the Justice Department s recent extension of an agreement with Standard Chartered as necessary to investigate some new facts
In some cases Justice may impose a new fine or require more remedial compliance measures she said And in the appropriate case we can pursue criminal charges based on the original conduct
When a bank enters into an NPA or DPA it must admit facts that constitute the elements of a criminal offense Caldwell said The Justice Department can thereby essentially require a company plead guilty or they can go to trial |
BMY | Why The Earnings Surprise Streak Could Continue For Bristol Myers BMY | Have you been searching for a stock that might be well positioned to maintain its earnings beat streak in its upcoming report It is worth considering Bristol Myers Squibb BMY which belongs to the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry
When looking at the last two reports this biopharmaceutical company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates The company has topped estimates by 15 18 on average in the last two quarters
For the last reported quarter Bristol Myers came out with earnings of 0 94 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 85 per share representing a surprise of 10 59 For the previous quarter the company was expected to post earnings of 0 91 per share and it actually produced earnings of 1 09 per share delivering a surprise of 19 78
Price and EPS Surprise
For Bristol Myers estimates have been trending higher thanks in part to this earnings surprise history And when you look at the stock s positive Zacks Earnings ESP Expected Surprise Prediction it s a great indicator of a future earnings beat especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 Hold or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70 of the time In other words if you have 10 stocks with this combination the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier
Bristol Myers currently has an Earnings ESP of 6 54 which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company s earnings prospects This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock s Zacks Rank 3 Hold indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner We expect the company s next earnings report to be released on April 25 2019
Investors should note however that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher On the other hand some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate
Because of this it s really important to check a company s Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they ve reported |
BMY | Celgene Acceleron Submit BLA For Luspatercept To The FDA | Celgene Corporation NASDAQ CELG announced that it has submitted a Biologics License Application BLA for pipeline candidate luspatercept a first in class erythroid maturation agent EMA that regulates late stage red blood cell RBC maturation
The company is developing luspatercept in collaboration with partner Acceleron Pharma Inc NASDAQ XLRN
The BLA is seeking FDA approval of luspatercept for the treatment of adult patients with very low to intermediate risk myelodysplastic syndromes MDS associated anemia who have ring sideroblasts and require RBC transfusions and adult patients with beta thalassemia associated anemia who require RBC transfusions
The BLA was submitted on the basis of safety and efficacy results from the phase III studies MEDALIST and BELIEVE
Both the companies plan to submit a marketing application to the European Medicines Agency in the second quarter of 2019
Meanwhile the candidate is also being evaluated in phase III trial COMMANDS for the treatment of erythropoiesis stimulating agent ESA na ve lower risk MDS patients Luspatercept is also being evaluated in the BEYOND phase II trial in non transfusion dependent beta thalassemia and a phase II trial in myelofibrosis
Celgene s stock has gained 9 3 in the past six months against the s decline of 6 2
Meanwhile the company has been in the news lately due to a merger agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY announced earlier this year Per the deal Bristol Myers will acquire Celgene for a whopping 74 billion The company s shareholders will receive 50 plus one share of Bristol Myers and one tradeable Contingent Value Right CVR which will entitle the holder to receive a cash payment of 9 00 upon the receipt of FDA approval of three products in its pipeline ozanimod liso cel and bb2121 within specified time periods
The company also has a co development and co promotion agreement with bluebird bio Inc NASDAQ BLUE for bb2121 an experimental anti B cell maturation antigen BCMA chimeric antigen receptor CAR T cell therapy for the potential treatment of patients with relapsed refractory multiple myeloma in the United States The acquisition of Juno Therapeutics has added liso cel to Celgene s lymphoma pipeline
Zacks Rank
Celgene currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see
Is Your Investment Advisor Fumbling Your Financial Future
See how you can more effectively safeguard your retirement with a new Special Report 4 Warning Signs Your Investment Advisor Might Be Sabotaging Your Financial Future |
C | Stocks Try But Can t Overcome Downward Bias | Stocks Try But Can t Overcome Downward Bias as China Forecasts Factory Data WeighStocks ended mixed on Monday with consumer and healthcare companies rallying near the close but unable to fully overcome the steep hole energy and other commodity related stocks created today Shares traded lower through most of the session after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in a speech at the National People s Congress earlier today cut the nation s growth target to 7 5 percent down from an 8 goal in place for nearly seven years Data showing service and manufacturing output declined during February in Europe also has been weighing on equities The major market indices briefly turned around shortly after 10 a m nearly erasing all of their morning losses when the Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected 0 5 point increase for its services index last month rising to a 57 3 reading from 56 8 in January Experts in a Bloomberg News survey had been expecting a fall to 56 1 Reading above 50 indicate growth The gains quickly faded when a separate report today found new orders for U S factory goods fell during January at their highest pace in more than a year Orders for manufactured goods fell 1 0 percent although that still managed to beat economists expectations in a Thomson Reuters survey calling for 1 5 slide December figures also were revised upward to 1 4 from 1 1 the Commerce Department reported In company news shares of Keryx Pharmaceuticals KERX and AEterna Zentaris AZN partners in developing a new cancer fighting drug are closing with big gains on speculation upcoming data from recent Phase III clinical testing will show Perifosine is an effective treatment for colorectal cancer and multiple myeloma Clinical results are due out in about two weeks In an opinion piece on the Seeking Alpha website fund manager Jeremy Richards argued many on Wall Street are failing to recognize the value Perifosine will create for both companies writing that regulatory approval for the drug is practically a done deal Also today Nature s Sunshine NATR was up 17 just before the close after reporting earnings of 0 48 a share reversing a 0 02 per share net loss during the same quarter last year Revenues rose 2 4 to 92 1 million The results easily topped the the 0 25 EPS call of the lone analyst following the maker of nutritional and personal care products according to Thomson Reuters Commodities also were mixed March gold is down 2 30 to 1 706 50 an ounce while crude oil reversed earlier losses with the April contract rising 30 cents to 107 00 a barrel in NYMEX trade Here s where the market stood at end of day NYSE Composite Index down 31 27 0 38 at 8 093 91 Dow Jones Industrial Average down 14 68 0 11 to 12 962 89 S P 500 down 5 30 0 39 to 1 364 33NASDAQ Composite down 25 71 0 86 to 2 950 48GLOBAL SENTIMENTNikkei 225 down 0 80 Hang Seng Index down 1 38 China Shanghai Composite Index down 0 64 FTSE 100 down 0 61 UPSIDE MOVERS ARCL Agrees to be acquired by Thoma Bravo LLC for 11 10 a share SUP Posts 1 48 Q4 EPS vs 0 83 in year ago quarter Revenues Climb 14 DOWNSIDE MOVERS CF Citigroup downgrade to neutral from buy LEAP Sanford Bernstein downgrades wireless carriers to market perform |
C | Greece Has Defaulted Which Country In Europe Is Next | Well it is official The restructuring deal between Greece and private investors has been pushed through and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association has ruled that this is a credit event which will trigger credit default swap contracts The ISDA is saying that there are approximately 3 2 billion in credit default swap contracts on Greek debt outstanding and most analysts expect that the global financial system will be able to absorb these losses But still 3 2 billion dollars is nothing to scoff at and some of these financial institutions that wrote a lot of these contracts on Greek debt are going to be hurting This deal with private investors may have rescued Greece for the moment but the consequences of this deal are going to be felt for years to come For example now that Greece has gotten a sweet haircut from private investors politicians in Portugal Italy Spain and other European nations are going to wonder why they shouldn t get some debt forgiveness too Also private investors are almost certainly going to be less likely to want to loan money to European nations from now on If they will be required to take a massive haircuts at some point then why in the world would they want to lend huge amounts of money to European governments at super low interest rates It simply does not make sense Now that Greece has defaulted the whole game is going to change This is just the beginning The restructuring deal was approved by approximately 84 percent of all Greek bondholders but the key to triggering the payouts on the credit default swaps was the fact that Greece decided to activate the collective action clauses which had been retroactively inserted into these bonds These collective action clauses force most of the rest of the bondholders to go along with this restructuring deal A recent article explained why so many people were upset about these collective action clauses The Greek parliament s retroactive law last month to insert collective action clauses CACs into its bonds to coerce creditor hold outs has added a fresh twist These CAC s are likely to be activated over coming days Use of retroactive laws to change contracts is anathema in credit markets If a government can go in and retroactively change the terms of a bond just before it is ready to default then why should private investors invest in them That is a very good question But for now the buck has been passed on to those that issued the credit default swaps As mentioned above the ISDA says that there are approximately in Greek credit default swaps that will need to be paid out However that number assumes that a lot of hedges and offsetting swaps cancel each other out When you just look at the raw total of swaps outstanding the number is much much higher The following is from a recent article If you remove all hedges and offsetting swaps there s about 70 billion in default insurance exposure to Greece out there which is a little bit bigger pill for the banking system to swallow Is it possible that some banks won t be able to pay on their default policies We ll find out Yes indeed We will find out very soon If some counterparties are unable to pay we could soon see some big problems cascade through the financial system But even with this new restructuring deal with private investors Greece is still in really bad shape German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble recently that it would be a big mistake to think we are out of the woods Even with this new deal Greek debt is still projected to be only reduced to 120 percent of GDP by the year 2020 And that number relies on projections that are almost unbelievably optimistic In addition there are still a whole host of that the Greek government must meet in order to continue getting bailout money Also the upcoming Greek elections in just a few weeks could bring this entire process to an end in just a single day So the crisis in Greece is The Greek economy has been in recession for five years in a row and it continues to shrink at a frightening pace Greek GDP was smaller during the 4th quarter of 2011 than it was during the 4th quarter of 2010 Unemployment in Greece also continues to get worse The average unemployment rate in Greece in 2010 was 12 5 percent During 2011 the average unemployment rate was and in December the unemployment rate in Greece was Young people are getting hit the hardest The youth unemployment rate in Greece is up to an all time record of The suicide rate in Greece is also at an Unfortunately there is no light at the end of the tunnel for Greece at this point The latest round of austerity measures that are now being implemented will slow the economy down even more Sadly several other countries in Europe are going down the exact same road that Greece has gone Investors all over the globe are wondering which one will be the next Greece Some believe that it will be Portugal The following is from a recent article The rule of law has been treated with contempt said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities This will lead to litigation for the next ten years It has become a massive impediment for long term investors and people will now be very wary about Portugal Right now the combination of all public and private debt in Portugal comes to a grand total of In Greece the combined total of all public and private debt is about 100 percentage points less than that So yes Portugal is heading for a world of hurt The following is more about Portugal from the recent Telegraph article mentioned above Citigroup expects the economy to contract by 5 7pc this year warning that bondholders may face a 50pc haircut by the end of the year Portugal s 78bn loan package from the EU IMF Troika is already large enough to crowd out private creditors reducing them to ever more junior status So why should anyone invest in Portuguese debt at this point Or Italian debt Or Spanish debt Or any European debt at all The truth is that the European financial system is a house of cards that could come crashing down at any time German economist Hans Werner Sinn is even convinced that the European Central Bank itself could collapse There is a Der Spiegel article that everyone out there should read It is entitled It is quite technical but if this German economist is correct the implications are staggering The following is from the first paragraph of the article More than a year ago German economist Hans Werner Sinn discovered a gigantic risk on the balance sheets of Germany s central bank Were the euro zone to collapse Bundesbank losses could be half a trillion euros more than one and a half times the size of the country s annual budget So no the European debt crisis is not over It is just getting warmed up Get ready for a wild ride |
C | Fed Upgrades Outlook Banks Beat Stress Tests | The Federal Reserve acknowledged recent improvements in economic data without hinting at any changes in monetary policy Risk appetite soared after 15 of 19 banks passed stress tests and several announced share buybacks NZD and GBP were the best performers while JPY lagged The Asia Pacific session will be generally quiet Todays Premium trades include GBPUSD EURUSD CADJPY and oil See below The Fed decision was generally as expected but some money that was in USD short on the chance of a dovish hint at QE3 quickly scrambled to the exits leading to a short term dollar rally The Fed said unemployment had declined notably and that strains in financial markets have increased Policymakers also acknowledged inflationary pressures due to oil prices but said the effects would be temporary The stress test results stole the show from the Fed The study which forecasts how banks would perform if unemployment hit 13 and other adverse events gave a passing rating to all but four banks with Citigroup as the only notable failure The results were supposed to be published Thursday but the Fed gave them to the banks Tuesday at noon JPMorgan quickly announced plans to buy back shares and hike its dividend with others doing the same The Fed claimed it was a mix up and decided to push ahead the reports publication Stocks jumped to a 3 5 year high after the report with the S P 500 gaining 1 8 USD JPY touched 83 for the first time since April 2011 Asia Pacific PreviewThe calendar is somewhat busy but releases are lower tier and are unlikely to move the market Westpac consumer confidence at 23 30 GMT then Australia dwelling starts at 0030 and Japanese industrial production final revisions for January at 0430 GMT At 0300 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gives his final press conference of the NPC |
C | Asia Open USD JPY is the Standout Pair in the FX Market | Price action in the FX market was fairly choppy overnight with the exception of USD JPY which pushed higher in the wake of the Fed and BoJ meetings both of which delivered no change verdicts In fact there were no major surprises from either bank but moving forward we expect to see a divergence of policy between the two banks The FOMC has upgraded its tone it now sees moderate economic growth as opposed to modest economic growth previously and the overall attitude of the statement was fairly upbeat Whereas the BoJ still has a fairly cautious tone and yesterday s decision to leave the asset purchase program unchanged should not obscure the easing bias evident in the expansion and the special lending facility for growth industries In Australia Westpac consumer confidence dropped the most in three months slumping to 96 1 in March from 101 1 As was the case with business confidence inaction by the RBA and the decline in equity markets during the first half of March will have weighed on consumer sentiment Adding to this the overall decline in macro data like 4QGDp and the March labour market report may have made consumers more pessimistic Also dwelling starts in Australia decreased 6 9 during 4Q modestly higher than consensus estimates of 3 0 Markets were expecting a decline given the main leading indicator to this release building approvals has been consistently poor in recent has started to slip on the back of the poor data out of Australia after some resistance around 1 0560 overnight On the downside we expect the pair to find some support around 1 0481 overnight low Equity markets in the US were bolstered by domestic retail sales data and news that JPMorgan Chase the largest US bank will be increasing its dividend by 5 cents and it also authorised a USD15bn stock buyback programme However after markets closed the US Feb Reserve announced that Citigroup and three other large US banks had failed the stress tests |
BMY | Biotech Stocks Outperform During Inversions 5 Must Watch | Traditionally an inverted yield curve indicates a recession in a year or two And that surely is a bearish signal for the Wall Street But biotech stocks tend to outdo during a period of inverted yield curves Lest we forget the yield curve inverted on Mar 22 2019 for the first time since 2007 This means that rates for long term bonds especially 10 year Treasury yields dropped below short term bonds An inverted yield curve generally precedes a recession by nearly 15 24 months And during this period before recession starts biotech stocks gains momentum only to underperform in the late expansion period ahead of a recession Nonetheless biotech stocks do often tend to bounce back post recession Biotech stocks by the way have been underperforming since around 2013 mostly due to yield curve remaining flat Small cap biotech stocks primarily slipped 9 However now that the yield curve has inverted such stocks could outperform It s worth pointing out that biotech stocks historically notched the strongest performance when the yield for a 30 year Treasury bond fell below the yield for a 2 year bond Thus biotech stocks are now some of the most exciting investments on Wall Street But it s a risky business for sure When a company successfully completes a drug trial its shares climb north And if it fails its shares plummet At the same time considering an early stage biotech player can be highly speculative Nevertheless for more experienced investors who want to make the most of this lucrative space here are the top five biotech stocks to watch out for CelgeneCelgene Corporation NASDAQ CELG discovers develops and commercializes therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases The company isn t a small development stage drug maker but a biotech giant that is projected to register 17 billion in revenues this year Moreover Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY may acquire Celgene for 74 billion or about 102 50 per share something that should bode well for Celgene Bristol Myers Squibb in the meanwhile could use an array of Celgene s products to broaden its portfolio But even ifBristol Myers Squibb fails to acquire Celgene the 61 billion company remains one of the heavyweights in the biotech space for the long run And why not Celgene reported 16 growth in revenues and 20 adjusted growth in profits in the fourth quarter To top it management expects profits to grow another 21 this year to a range of 10 60 to 10 80 per share Celgene currently has a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy In the past 60 days the company has seen eight earnings estimates move north while one moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 3 5 in the same period You can see The company s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is almost 21 more than the industry s projected rise of 6 The company has outperformed the broader industry so far this year 36 4 vs 9 5 Puma BiotechnologyPuma Biotechnology Inc NASDAQ PBYI focuses on the development and commercialization of products to enhance cancer care The company s shares soared to an all time high of around 270 in 2015 thanks to positive results for a breast cancer treatment But its shares fell as sales didn t materialize However the company now projects revenue growth of about 18 for this year as sales have started to pick up pace Puma Biotechnology has also established a good relationship with Pfizer Inc NYSE PFE in conducting early drug trials Puma Biotechnology currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy In the past 60 days the company has seen four earnings estimates move north while one moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose more than 100 in the same period The company s earnings growth rate of 91 5 so far this year is higher than the Medical Biomedical and Genetics industry s estimated rise of 9 5 ExelixisExelixis Inc NASDAQ EXEL an oncology focused biotechnology company focuses on the discovery development and commercialization of new medicines to treat cancer Things are currently looking up for the company Its flagship cancer drug Cabometyx recently got FDA approval for additional use Needless to say the company generated almost 620 million in revenues from Cabometyx in 2018 up more than 70 from 2017 On an earnings call last month CEO Micheal Morrissey further added to the optimism by highlighting the company s plans for mergers and licensing deals to add new products Exelixis currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold In the past 30 days the company has seen two earnings estimates move north while none moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 5 9 in the same period The company s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 20 1 more than the Medical Biomedical and Genetics industry s projected rise of 5 2 The company has outperformed the broader industry on a year to date basis 20 1 vs 9 5 Enanta PharmaceuticalsEnanta Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ ENTA focuses on the research and development of small molecule drugs for the treatment of viral infections and liver diseases Per its last earnings report the company had 325 million in cash This is almost 25 of its market cap indicating financial strength Apart from this encouraging cash position Enanta Pharmaceuticals has several drugs in trial stage Once these drugs succeed in the trials the stock price surely surge In fact shares of Enanta Pharmaceuticals have gained 34 5 so far this year more than the industry s rise of 15 3 Enanta Pharmaceuticals currently has a Zacks Rank 3 In the past 60 days the company has seen three earnings estimates move up while one moved down for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 19 7 in the same period Sage TherapeuticsSage Therapeutics Inc NASDAQ SAGE develops and commercializes novel medicines to treat central nervous system CNS disorders The company s shares hit a peak of 180 last year when it announced positive test results for an insomnia drug To top it there are a plenty of other drugs in the pipeline One of them includes a depression treatment that could help Sage Therapeutics generate 2 billion in sales by 2026 The company currently has a Zacks Rank 3 In the past 30 days the company has seen four earnings estimates move north while two moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose more than 100 in the same period The company s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 54 3 more than the Medical Drugs industry s projected rise of 7 8 The company has outperformed the broader industry on a year to date basis 66 9 vs 15 4 In fact shares of Celgene Puma Biotechnology Exelixis Enanta Pharmaceuticals and Sage Therapeutics have easily surpassed the broader S P 500 so far this year Today s Best Stocks from Zacks Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market beating strategies From 2017 through 2018 while the S P 500 gained 15 8 five of our screens returned 38 0 61 3 61 6 68 1 and 98 3 This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon From 2000 2018 while the S P averaged 4 8 per year our top strategies averaged up to 56 2 per year |
BMY | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Celgene Puma Exelixis Enanta And Sage | For Immediate ReleaseChicago IL April 1 2019 Zacks com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets Stocks recently featured in the blog include Celgene Corporation NASDAQ CELG Puma Biotechnology Inc NASDAQ PBYI Exelixis Inc NASDAQ EXEL Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ ENTA and Sage Therapeutics Inc NASDAQ SAGE Here are highlights from Friday s Analyst Blog Biotech Stocks Outperform During Inversions 5 Must WatchTraditionally an inverted yield curve indicates a recession in a year or two And that surely is a bearish signal for the Wall Street But biotech stocks tend to outdo during a period of inverted yield curves Lest we forget the yield curve inverted on Mar 22 2019 for the first time since 2007 This means that rates for long term bonds especially 10 year Treasury yields dropped below short term bonds An inverted yield curve generally precedes a recession by nearly 15 24 months And during this period before recession starts biotech stocks gains momentum only to underperform in the late expansion period ahead of a recession Nonetheless biotech stocks do often tend to bounce back post recession Biotech stocks by the way have been underperforming since around 2013 mostly due to yield curve remaining flat Small cap biotech stocks primarily slipped 9 However now that the yield curve has inverted such stocks could outperform It s worth pointing out that biotech stocks historically notched the strongest performance when the yield for a 30 year Treasury bond fell below the yield for a 2 year bond Thus biotech stocks are now some of the most exciting investments on Wall Street But it s a risky business for sure When a company successfully completes a drug trial its shares climb north And if it fails its shares plummet At the same time considering an early stage biotech player can be highly speculative Nevertheless for more experienced investors who want to make the most of this lucrative space here are the top five biotech stocks to watch out for CelgeneCelgene Corporation discovers develops and commercializes therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases The company isn t a small development stage drug maker but a biotech giant that is projected to register 17 billion in revenues this year Moreover Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY may acquire Celgene for 74 billion or about 102 50 per share something that should bode well for Celgene Bristol Myers Squibb in the meanwhile could use an array of Celgene s products to broaden its portfolio But even if Bristol Myers Squibb fails to acquire Celgene the 61 billion company remains one of the heavyweights in the biotech space for the long run And why not Celgene reported 16 growth in revenues and 20 adjusted growth in profits in the fourth quarter To top it management expects profits to grow another 21 this year to a range of 10 60 to 10 80 per share Celgene currently has a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy In the past 60 days the company has seen eight earnings estimates move north while one moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 3 5 in the same period You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank stocks here The company s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is almost 21 more than the Medical Biomedical and Genetics industry s projected rise of 6 The company has outperformed the broader industry so far this year 36 4 vs 9 5 Puma BiotechnologyPuma Biotechnology Inc focuses on the development and commercialization of products to enhance cancer care The company s shares soared to an all time high of around 270 in 2015 thanks to positive results for a breast cancer treatment But its shares fell as sales didn t materialize However the company now projects revenue growth of about 18 for this year as sales have started to pick up pace Puma Biotechnology has also established a good relationship with Pfizer NYSE PFE in conducting early drug trials Puma Biotechnology currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy In the past 60 days the company has seen four earnings estimates move north while one moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose more than 100 in the same period The company s earnings growth rate of 91 5 so far this year is higher than the Medical Biomedical and Genetics industry s estimated rise of 9 5 ExelixisExelixis Inc an oncology focused biotechnology company focuses on the discovery development and commercialization of new medicines to treat cancer Things are currently looking up for the company Its flagship cancer drug Cabometyx recently got FDA approval for additional use Needless to say the company generated almost 620 million in revenues from Cabometyx in 2018 up more than 70 from 2017 On an earnings call last month CEO Michael Morrissey further added to the optimism by highlighting the company s plans for mergers and licensing deals to add new products Exelixis currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold In the past 30 days the company has seen two earnings estimates move north while none moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 5 9 in the same period The company s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 20 1 more than the Medical Biomedical and Genetics industry s projected rise of 5 2 The company has outperformed the broader industry on a year to date basis 20 1 vs 9 5 Enanta PharmaceuticalsEnanta Pharmaceuticals Inc focuses on the research and development of small molecule drugs for the treatment of viral infections and liver diseases Per its last earnings report the company had 325 million in cash This is almost 25 of its market cap indicating financial strength Apart from this encouraging cash position Enanta Pharmaceuticals has several drugs in trial stage Once these drugs succeed in the trials the stock price surely surge In fact shares of Enanta Pharmaceuticals have gained 34 5 so far this year more than the Medical Drugs industry s rise of 15 3 Enanta Pharmaceuticals currently has a Zacks Rank 3 In the past 60 days the company has seen three earnings estimates move up while one moved down for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 19 7 in the same period Sage TherapeuticsSage Therapeutics Inc develops and commercializes novel medicines to treat central nervous system CNS disorders The company s shares hit a peak of 180 last year when it announced positive test results for an insomnia drug To top it there are a plenty of other drugs in the pipeline One of them includes a depression treatment that could help Sage Therapeutics generate 2 billion in sales by 2026 The company currently has a Zacks Rank 3 In the past 30 days the company has seen four earnings estimates move north while two moved south for the current year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose more than 100 in the same period The company s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 54 3 more than the Medical Drugs industry s projected rise of 7 8 The company has outperformed the broader industry on a year to date basis 66 9 vs 15 4 In fact shares of Celgene Puma Biotechnology Exelixis Enanta Pharmaceuticals and Sage Therapeutics have easily surpassed the broader S P 500 so far this year Today s Best Stocks from Zacks Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market beating strategies From 2017 through 2018 while the S P 500 gained 15 8 five of our screens returned 38 0 61 3 61 6 68 1 and 98 3 This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon From 2000 2018 while the S P averaged 4 8 per year our top strategies averaged up to 56 2 per year See their latest picks free Media ContactZacks Investment Research800 767 3771 ext 9339 Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
BMY | Clovis Posts Data On Rubraca Study For Pancreatic Cancer | Clovis Oncology Inc NASDAQ CLVS announced interim results from the phase II study on its PARP inhibitor Rubraca rucaparib for the first line maintenance treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer in platinum sensitive patients Interim data from the investigator initiated program showed that the treatment with Rubraca led to a disease control benefit with no new safety signals in patients with BRCA1 BRCA2 or PALB2 mutations following the initial treatment with platinum based chemotherapy The evaluation is being conducted by The University of Pennsylvania The ongoing phase II study is examining Rubraca 600 mg twice daily as a monotherapy in the first line maintenance setting The study will examine 42 patients whose disease has not progressed following the treatment with platinum based chemotherapy for at least four months The primary endpoint of the study is to observe the progression free survival PFS rate In 19 patients that were evaluated the median PFS was 9 1 months from the start of treatment with Rubraca The median overall survival has not been reached The data was presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research AACR held in Atlanta Clovis is looking for a potential clinical and regulatory path forward for Rubraca in pancreatic cancer The company expects to provide more information on the same later this year Shares of Clovis were up 2 2 following this news on Tuesday In fact so far this year the stock has surged 38 outperforming the increase of 11 7 We would like to remind investors that Rubraca is already approved as a maintenance treatment for the recurrent ovarian cancer patients irrespective of BRCA mutation who have received one prior platinum based chemotherapy Rubraca generated sales of 95 4 million in 2018 reflecting a 71 9 surge year over year The drug s sale has improved steadily since its launch However the target market is highly competitive with the presence of Glaxo s NYSE GSK Zejula and Merck AstraZeneca s NYSE AZN Lynparza Meanwhile Clovis is investigating Rubraca in several label expansion studies The company has a collaboration with Bristol Myers NYSE BMY to develop Rubraca in combination with the latter s PD L1 inhibitor Opdivo for several cancer indications A phase III confirmatory study ARIEL4 is evaluating Rubraca versus chemotherapy in patients who have failed two prior lines of therapy A phase III study ATHENA is probing Rubraca plus Opdivo as part of the aforesaid alliance for advanced ovarian cancer Clovis is also looking to expand Rubraca s label into additional cancer types like prostrate breast and gastroesophageal cancers among others Zacks RankClovis has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see Is Your Investment Advisor Fumbling Your Financial Future See how you can more effectively safeguard your retirement with a new Special Report 4 Warning Signs Your Investment Advisor Might Be Sabotaging Your Financial Future |
C | Strong tech bank shares boost European equities | FTSEurofirst 300 jumps 1 4 percent targets 1 year high
Banks advance sector index up 170 percent from March lows
ASML results boost tech stocks miners in demand
For up to the minute market news click on
By Atul Prakash
LONDON Oct 14 Reuters European shares rose close to a
one year high on Wednesday with earnings from Intel and ASML
soothing investors who had sold riskier assets such as
equities in the prior session
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose 1 4
percent to 1 009 17 points by 0759 GMT having fallen 1 percent
on Tuesday
A move above 1 013 63 points would be a one year high for
the index which is up 21 percent this year and 56 percent
higher since hitting a record low in early March
The VDAX NEW volatility index fell 2 percent to hover near
this week s 13 month lows The lower the index which is based
on buy and sell options on Frankfurt s top 30 stocks the higher
is investors appetite for risky assets
Financial shares were among the top gainers with the DJ
Stoxx banking index rising 1 8 percent The sector has been the
second best performer this year surging 170 percent since
hitting a low in early March
Standard Chartered HSBC Barclays Lloyds Royal Bank of
Scotland BNP Paribas Societe Generale and Credit Agricole
gained 0 5 2 9 percent
Today could be one of those watershed moments for the
markets said John Murphy analyst at ODL Securities
Whilst we have rallied strongly since the March lows the
release of Q3 earnings from some of the world s largest
financial institutions over the next 48 hours could well dictate
confidence and indeed direction for the rest of 2009
Markets await results from JPMorgan Chase later in the day
and from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs on Thursday
After the closing bell on Wall Street on Tuesday Intel
posted a quarterly outlook and results that were better than
expected while Dutch chip equipment maker ASML swung to a
third quarter net profit of 20 million euros 30 million as
orders picked up after nine months of falls
Tech shares were in demand with DJ STOXX technology index
rising 1 9 percent ASML shares rose 3 2 percent while Infineon
Nokia STMicroelectronics and ARM climbed 1 6 4 2 percent
CRUDE POWERS ENERGY SHARES
Energy shares gained ground after crude oil surged
for a fifth day to a 2009 high above 75 a barrel as the dollar
hit a 14 month low and surprisingly strong China trade data
underscored a recovery in the world s second largest oil user
BP Royal Dutch Shell BG Group Tullow Oil Repsol Total
and StatoilHydro added 1 3 2 4 percent
Miners got strength from higher metals prices BHP Billiton
Anglo American Antofagasta Xstrata and Eurasian Natural
Resources rose 1 8 3 7 percent
Global miner Rio Tinto was up 3 7 percent as it raised its
production guidance for iron ore this year by 5 7 5 percent to
210 215 million tonnes after reporting a 12 percent jump in
third quarter output
Traders will also be looking forward to the U S retail
sales figures especially as there has been much debate recently
whether consumer demand is returning or whether government
stimulus is the cause of better earnings said Arifa
Sheikh Usmani equity trader at Spreadex
Either way the momentum is still very much with the bulls
this morning so it would take a brave trader to go against the
tide today
September U S retail sales data was due at 1230 GMT
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 2 1 percent fall
compared with a 2 7 percent rise in August
Across Europe Britain s FTSE 100 index Germany s DAX and
France s CAC 40 rose 1 2 1 3 percent
Editing by Dan Lalor |
C | FACTBOX Key M A deals in Taiwan s insurance sector | TAIPEI Oct 14 Reuters Beleaguered U S insurer AIG has
agreed to sell its Taiwan unit Nan Shan Life for 2 15 billion
to Primus Financial and its Chinese partner China Strategic
Holdings
Here are key merger and acquisition deals involving foreign
firms in Taiwan s insurance sector over the past five years
October 2009 U S insurer American International Group
sells Taiwan s No 3 insurer Nan Shan to Primus a financial
group run by a former Citigroup banker and China Strategic a
little known Hong Kong listed company for 2 15 billion The
deal is subject to Taiwan regulatory approval
April 2009 Dutch insurer Aegon sells its Taiwan
insurance unit for 65 million euros to Zhongwei a Taiwan
holding company set up by the chairman of Meifu Development and
the president of Taiwan Glass Industry
February 2009 Britain s Prudential Plc sells most of its
Taiwan insurance business to Taiwan s China Life for a token of
T 1 In the deal Prudential would own a stake of about 10
percent in China Life valued at T 2 18 billion 70 million
October 2008 Dutch financial group ING sells ING Life in
Taiwan to the island s Fubon Financial for 600 million
October 2007 French insurer AXA which is Europe s
second biggest insurer by market capitalisation sells its
Taiwan operations of Winterthur Life to Taiwan s China Life for
T 400 million
January 2007 Uni President Group sells its 47 percent
stake of its insurance joint venture with Allianz to the German
insurer for an estimated T 1 7 billion T 1 8 billion
August 2004 Swiss company Zurich Financial Services
transfers its Taiwan insurance business to unlisted Farglory
Life Few details were available
Reporting by Lee Chyen Yee and Faith Hung
Editing by Clarence Fernandez |
C | GLOBAL MARKETS Stocks hit highs dollar at 14 mo low | World stocks hit 12 month high up 0 7 pct
Stocks boosted as JPMorgan results beat forecasts
Dollar hits 14 month low vs euro basket
Gold hits record oil at year s highs
By Tamawa Desai
LONDON Oct 14 Reuters World stocks extended 12 month
highs hit on Wednesday after results from JPMorgan Chase Co
boosted investor optimism over an economic recovery
sending the dollar to 14 month lows and oil and gold higher
U S stock futures rose 1 5 percent paving the way
for a higher Wall Street open as the U S bank s results beat
forecasts adding to a brightening mood after chip maker Intel
Corp posted strong earnings late on Tuesday
With Chinese trade numbers ID nBJB003548 and UK and euro
zone data also upbeat MSCI s all country world index
rose 1 1 percent to 295 32 a level last seen in
October a year ago
The index is up 28 percent this year and more than 70
percent since hitting a six year low in March
For a graphic showing world stocks and the dollar vs euro
click here
JPMorgan reported third quarter net income of 3 6 billion
or 82 cents per share beating forecasts of 52 cents
ID nWNAB8844
The results are very good for the sector It s an
absolutely definitive catalyst for a positive market and has a
very positive impact on sentiment said Geoff Wilkinson Head
of Investment Research at Mint in London
If the broad U S banking indices are supported by this
then everything else will be supported as well
Markets now await U S September retail sales data to gauge
the strength of consumers in the world s biggest economy Sales
excluding the volatile auto sector are expected to have risen
for a second month
Results from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are
also due on Thursday
GOLD AT RECORD OIL AT YEAR HIGHS
European shares also rose to their highest in a
year at 1 017 75 up 2 2 percent on the day while MSCI s
emerging market equities index reached its highest
since mid August 2008 above 968
But Thailand s benchmark stock index slipped more
than four percent to two week lows as domestic financial markets
tumbled on concerns over the health of the country s 81 year old
king traders said ID nBKK105974
Gold hit a record above 1 070 an ounce and oil
rose to a 2009 peak above 75 a barrel as the dollar
slipped to its weakest in more than a year against the euro
and a currency basket
The JPMorgan results are playing through better risk
appetite which typically means a weaker dollar said Adam
Cole global head of currency strategy at RBC in London As
stocks continue to rally the dollar will go down
Risk assets were also fuelled by expectations that interest
rates in major economies would stay at rock bottom levels for
some time providing cheap funding for investors
U S Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on
Tuesday the economy would likely be producing well below its
potential for some time and that expectations of future
inflation would more likely fall than rise ID nN13196033
The Bank of Japan left key interest rates unchanged at 0 1
percent as expected ID nT302216
The yen got a boost after a deputy of Japan s finance
minister said Tokyo should not step into the foreign exchange
market just because the yen rises ID nT362093
The current yen rise is due to the dollar weakness rather
than the yen s strength Naoki Minezaki one of the
government s two senior vice finance ministers told Reuters in
an interview The dollar weakness is likely to persist
Additional reporting by Jeremy Gaunt Hapreet Bhal and Naomi
Tajitsu Editing by Patrick Graham |
C | GLOBAL MARKETS Stocks hit highs dollar at 14 month low | World stocks hit 12 month high up 0 7 percent
Stocks boosted as JPMorgan results beat forecasts
Dollar hits 14 month low vs euro basket
Gold hits record oil at year s highs
By Tamawa Desai
LONDON Oct 14 Reuters World stocks extended 12 month
highs hit on Wednesday after results from JPMorgan Chase Co
boosted investor optimism over an economic recovery sending the
dollar to 14 month lows and oil and gold higher
U S stock futures rose 1 5 percent paving the way for a
higher Wall Street open as the U S bank s results beat
forecasts adding to a brightening mood after chip maker Intel
Corp posted strong earnings late on Tuesday
With Chinese trade numbers and UK and euro zone data also
upbeat MSCI s all country world index rose 1 1 percent to
295 32 a level last seen in October a year ago
The index is up 28 percent this year and more than 70
percent since hitting a six year low in March
For a graphic showing world stocks and the dollar vs euro
click here
JPMorgan reported third quarter net income of 3 6 billion
or 82 cents per share beating forecasts of 52 cents
The results are very good for the sector It s an
absolutely definitive catalyst for a positive market and has a
very positive impact on sentiment said Geoff Wilkinson Head
of Investment Research at Mint in London
If the broad U S banking indices are supported by this
then everything else will be supported as well
Markets now await U S September retail sales data to gauge
the strength of consumers in the world s biggest economy Sales
excluding the volatile auto sector are expected to have risen
for a second month
Results from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are also due on
Thursday
GOLD AT RECORD OIL AT YEAR HIGHS
European shares also rose to their highest in a year at
1 017 75 up 2 2 percent on the day while MSCI s emerging
market equities index reached its highest since mid August 2008
above 968
But Thailand s benchmark stock index slipped more than four
percent to two week lows as domestic financial markets tumbled
on concerns over the health of the country s 81 year old king
traders said
Gold hit a record above 1 070 an ounce and oil rose to a
2009 peak above 75 a barrel as the dollar slipped to its
weakest in more than a year against the euro and a currency
basket
The JPMorgan results are playing through better risk
appetite which typically means a weaker dollar said Adam
Cole global head of currency strategy at RBC in London As
stocks continue to rally the dollar will go down
Risk assets were also fuelled by expectations that interest
rates in major economies would stay at rock bottom levels for
some time providing cheap funding for investors
U S Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on
Tuesday the economy would likely be producing well below its
potential for some time and that expectations of future
inflation would more likely fall than rise
The Bank of Japan left key interest rates unchanged at 0 1
percent as expected
The yen got a boost after a deputy of Japan s finance
minister said Tokyo should not step into the foreign exchange
market just because the yen rises
The current yen rise is due to the dollar weakness rather
than the yen s strength Naoki Minezaki one of the
government s two senior vice finance ministers told Reuters in
an interview The dollar weakness is likely to persist
Additional reporting by Jeremy Gaunt Hapreet Bhal and Naomi
Tajitsu Editing by Patrick Graham |
C | The Week Ahead Risk Rally Getting Long in the Tooth | Looking at the week ahead we ponder the potential for this risk rally to finally face a consolidation The Bank of Japan is on tap tonight and may have more to say than usual US retail sales data is up tomorrow EU Greece and all thatWhile Greece has played Deal or No Deal with the markets over the last week we must remember that the threat here is for continued social destabilization in Greece and the prospect for Greek elections possibly in the early April time frame Please see our Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen s piece on Greece and the Euro Zone Meanwhile the awkward EU ECB framework has escaped any streamlining despite the recent fiscal compact and the open question is how the Euro Zone copes after the ECB s next LTRO at the end of this month And with French elections on tap for late April we may be entering an awkward political limbo for a time until the victor of that contest is known It appears Hollande is the sure winner but he has promised renegotiation of the fiscal compact that was agreed at the late January meeting Markets this weekThe risk rally is trying to slam back into full speed ahead mode on the news of Greece finally agreeing to the bailout deal but there are risks for the rally as it has gotten very long in the tooth A couple of warning signs can be found in the likes of a divergent VIX more pronounced than when we mentioned a similar development a couple of weeks back very complacent sentiment readings and light market volume As well economic surprise indices like the one maintained by Citigroup have yet to show signs of significant deterioration something they nearly always do from the kinds of elevated levels we have seen in recent weeks Interest ratesDespite the strong rally in risk which may in large part be driven by the perceived prospects for infinite quantitative easing the German Bund and US 10 year remain anchored to the 2 00 per cent yield area can anything shake this market The two interesting scenarios for bonds from here are further strong data that erodes the prospects for more QE or very weak data that tests whether the market will continue to pile into bonds as a safe haven FXEUR USD is trying to decide whether the squeeze to the 1 3300 area was enough for now or if there is more ground to take back if Have we lost sight of the degree to which the ECB has exploded its balance sheet and the next tests that await the Euro regardless of whether Greece revives or disappears into the Adriatic Other big tests this week are in the JPY crosses as the MoF has been rattling its cage of late on its ability to intervene and with the BoJ up tonight After a run down to the bottom of the range two weeks ago last week saw the pair whipping back higher as interest rates rose Intervention and the direction for long government yields are the two keys for the JPY this tried above its long term resistance level at 1 0760 last week and will continue to correlate with risk appetite this week and beyond Watch the Australian employment report Thursday It is clear that the USD and JPY are the most sensitive currencies correlated negatively to further upside in risk appetite and the Aussie and Kiwi are the most AUD CAD and NZD CAD are at interesting and excessive valuations and some traders may look at these pairs for steering clear of the US dollar in looking for a consolidation in risk appetite this week CommoditiesBrent crude has rallied close to its highest levels expressed in pounds and Euros and is likely beginning to erode demand something that might become increasingly evident as the bitter European cold eases further this week Gold and silver may remain stuck in a range interesting that last week s announcement of a reduction in margin failed to spark a rally and quite the opposite The Q4 SEC filings for the GLD the world s largest physical gold ETF will garner plenty of attention Economic calendar this weekTuesday Bank of Japan meeting considering the terrible Q4 GDP readings published on Monday the BoJ may move to stimulate the economy further with additional QE measures There is also considerable noise on the potential for the BoJ to become more explicit in its determination to beat deflation Consider this Reuters article UK Jan CPI RPI The Bank of England expects that these measures of inflation will fall sharply in the near term A fall in energy prices would certainly help them do so even more quickly Germany Feb ZEW a survey of expectations for economic growth It bounced very strongly in January but from near record lows The bounce is expected to extend strongly for February US Jan Advanced Retail Sales the December numbers were very weak could increasing gift certificate usage from the holiday season provide a pop or is the US consumer tapped out Wednesday New Zealand Jan Non resident bond holdings considering the interest in in investing in New Zealand debt the fall in this statistic to new lows since 2004 hardly makes sense what are those capital flows buying in New Zealand UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report has lost its import in recent years as a fall in inflation always seems around the corner At least this time it appears to be finally happening US Feb Empire Manufacturing the strength in the US manufacturing surveys in January rated a big surprise let s see if mean reversion sets in for February US Fed FOMC minutes of Jan 24 25 meeting always searching for clues on what triggers QE3 or delays is but we know that the Bernanke Fed is all aboutThursday Australia Jan Employment Change and Unemployment rate the market doesn t seem particularly pre occupied with the domestic economy in Australia as the Aussie trades on risk appetite and commodity moves but at some point domestic matters will matter and the employment report in December was terrible Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate looking for another cut to bring rate to 1 50 as EURSEK edges to its lowest levels in more than a decade The idea that SEK is a potential safe haven hasn t been tested by a serious sell off in risk US Jan PPI the core PPI ran up to its highest level since 2009 in December and the market seems to be betting that the Fed s complacency on inflation is justified The market is looking for a considerable drop to 2 7 YoY for Jan from 3 0 in Dec US Weekly Jobless Claims US Feb Philadelphia Fed Survey US Housing Starts and Building Permits these all looked good the last time aroundFriday UK Jan Retail Sales expected weak Canada Jan CPI the core CPI unlike in the US has been easing lower for a few months now US Jan CPI the core CPI in the US has risen to its highest level since late 2008 currently 2 2 and expected at the same for Jan data and the Fed must hope that it falls soon to retain credibility on inflation |
C | Greece Gets Reprieve But Default Still a Possibility | After more than half a year of back and forth negotiations with both sides guilty of brinksmanship bargaining we learned Monday that a deal had finally been reached to provide Greece with a second emergency bailout A total of 130 billion euros or 172 billion has been promised to Greece with the first payment expected in time to meet the next bond repayment scheduled for March 20th While the accord may avoid an immediate default there are significant strings attached to the continuation of future payouts later in the year These are similar to the conditions set out for the initial rescue package negotiated two years ago and include both spending cuts and revenue targets Greece s commitment to meeting these conditions for the first package were less than impressive leading ultimately to the ouster of former Prime Minister George Papandreou In this case Papandreou successfully negotiated the terms of the first rescue package with European officials However Papandreou then insisted after the deal had been worked out mind you that he needed to hold a public referendum before he could implement the very things to which he had already agreed to do earlier Cynicism aside the conditions being imposed on Greece are rather dramatic and will assuredly lead to an intensification of the protests that have marred Greece s major cities in recent months Greece is expected to reduce last year s deficit measured at 160 percent of total GDP to a target of 120 percent of GDP This will require Greece to accelerate an already aggressive list of spending cuts while simultaneously raising taxes Complicating matters is the fact that Greece is entering its fifth straight year of recession As a result revenues have declined which will force the government to raise taxes and other fees even more than originally planned This is why many economists feel the 120 percent of GDP goal is simply not possible and fear that the riots and protests in Greece to date are merely a warm up for what is to come Guillaume Menuet of Citigroup in London said he expects that as early as June Greece will miss its deficit targets and in his words it would be advisable to assume Greece would face a fully fledged coordinated default by the end of the year Joerg Kraemer Chief Economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt said that it was unlikely Greece would meet the conditions of the bailout and for the second half of the year there is a significant probability that a frustrated EU stops payments to Greece |
C | Here s What s Driving the Current Global Gas Shift | PEAK OIL VERSUS SHALE OILIn its February 15 report Resurging North American Oil Production Citigroup s analysts claimed that the shale gas boom was set to morph into a shale oil boom The report said The concept of peak oil is being buried in North Dakota which is now leading the US to be the fastest growing oil producer in the world The belief that global oil production has peaked or is on the cusp of doing so has underpinned much of crude oil s decade long rally setting aside the 2008 sell off Only 14 days later however the US Energy Department which in January cut its estimates for likely recoverable shale gas from the USA s giant Marcellus Basin by 66 and nationwide shale numbers by 42 from previous EIA estimates released its report on world oil market trends This contained an array of peak oil friendly facts and figures Its 29 February report outlined that OPEC spare oil production capacity dropped 33 in the first two months of this year compared with the same period in 2011 The 12 OPEC member states had an average 2 5 million barrels a day spare capacity during January and February down from 3 7 million b d a year earlier The report also gave baleful news for advocates of Iran bombing or oil embargoes it showed that global oil consumption averaged 3 Mbd more than global output when Iran is excluded from the calculation and about 500 000 b d more when Iran is included The global oil market is therefore tighter than ever is running on inventories and refinery gains OPEC quota cheating or overproduction and cannot do without Iran Iran s net exports and export supply capacity could be as low as 2 2 Mbd today long gone are the days of 1976 when Iran could produce 5 75 Mbd and export more than 4 Mbd to a world market that at the time consumed about 62 Mbd compared with 89 7 Mbd today OPEC s shrinking spare capacity of about 2 5 Mbd is almost exactly what Iran was exporting until late 2011 following a year average 2 6 Mbd in 2010 but whatever happens Iranian net export capacity and the straight majority of exporters able to export more than 1 Mbd will shrink Explaining this while denying depletion and the impact of oil consumption growth in exporter countries and worldwide is mental gymnastics THE GLOBAL GAS SHIFTThe Citigroup report could be taken as a morale raising exercize for equity punters anxious for news able to further boost US equity values but it missed out on the real mega shift driven by shale gas and stranded gas only resources LNG and the whole gas asset value chain For a host of converging reasons one of them peak oil world energy is moving to gas This will itself tend to lock in oil prices at high levels but will drive down gas prices outside the USA where gas prices will rise Neither shale gas nor shale oil are threatened with any kind of resource pinch but shale oil production will not explode the way Citigroup likes to imagine Reasons include constant drilling needs rapid decline from peak well output and water limits on expanding output Shale oil is an uncertain slayer of peak oil The real shift is to gas This de facto strategy shift of the international majors emerging country national oil companies NOCs energy companies in Japan and South Korea and a growing number of OPEC and OAPEC NOCs is now building fast and moving into unstoppable growth All are vying for gas assets across the spectrum shale coalseam stranded gas pipeline and LNG transport capacities gas condensate refinery capacity and gas to oil technology development The impact of this on the majors energy profile is already strong in 2011 Exxon Mobil s XOM energy output was 49 gas and 51 oil coal and all other energy commodities its gas energy footprint growing from 38 gas in 2005 For Shell RDS A the shift is even bigger and Shell is now close to 60 gas by energy output with several other former oil focused majors following such as Total TOT ENI E and BP BP which are crowding into the now accelerating shale gas development of Chinese and Indian resourcesAt the same time China and India are buying US shale gas assets and investing heavily in global LNG supply expansion China estimated by the US EIA to have the world s biggest shale gas reserves has yet to produce it commercially with Shell at end 2011 helping China National Petroleum Corp sink the nation s first horizontal well Chinese energy companies such as Cnooc and China Petrochemical Corp have invested more than 5 7 billion in so called unconventional oil and gas assets overseas especially in US shale gas India s biggest overseas energy explorer ONGC Videsh is set to buy its first shale gas assets in the USA and plans to spend at least 1 billion on purchases The company s gas dominated overseas energy asset buying strategy ranges from Mozambique to Russia to secure energy supplies for the world s second fastest growing major economy Its entry into US shale gas lease buying in competition with other major buyers including Exxon Mobil BP and India s Reliance Industries Ltd has driven up valuations in the US as high as 25 000 per acre 60 000 per hectare Other overseas buyers of US shale gas assets include Japan s Marubeni Corp which in January bought a 35 stake in an acreage from Hunt Oil Co for 1 3 billion valuing the fields at about 25 000 an acre GLOBAL GAS IS AN UNSURE STRATEGYThis spending means something it means that energy deciders have concluded that oil is difficult and expensive to find and produce because conventional oil resources are depleting but gas reserves are abundant even if the development transport and end use of gas does not come cheap For China India Japan South Korea and other Asian energy importers the gas shift is driven by pure economics their currrent dependence on LNG imports is priced at rates up to 16 per million BTU to compare with US pipeline supplies at prices hovering near 2 60 in early 2012 Both China and India intend vastly expanding the role of gas in their energy economies For China this translates to a goal of changing its energy mix from 66 coal and 20 oil today to at least 20 gas by 2030 up from 5 3 today using data supplied by the NDRC development commission Indian goals for expanding the role of natural gas are very similar raising its share in national energy to about 20 by 2030 compared with 5 6 in 2010 using data from Government of India Making this gas shift an uncertain strategy not only includes an already budding and certainly growing overcapacity in global LNG capacity The main goal of expanding gas in the energy economies of China and India is not primarily oil saving but coal saving for electricity production although expanded use of gas in road and land transport is also certain Outside the Asian giants expanding gas supply is also not primarily aimed at oil saving and also features electricity production again for basic economic reasons In regions of higher cost bulk electric power supplies especially Europe traded prices are often highly volatile and can swing as high as 150 euro per 1000 kWh 1 MWh or more but are often set in a range depending on national market at a monthly average near 50 55 euro MWh equivalent to about 21 per million BTU Gas focused energy companies will therefore need to compete for electric power production and transport assets in markets where the entry price is high The gas strategy aimed at electricity production and sale is advantaged in regions including the US and Europe where tough environmental regulations the development of renewable energy and the sharp growth in nuclear power costs due to decommissioning of ageing reactor fleets the nuclear exit strategies of Germany and Switzerland and effective exit strategy of Japan will all drive power prices higher Outside the US and Europe this is less sure especially for China and India where high cost national gas grids must first be developed before gas can ramp us Big energy strategists may also dream out loud that the concept of expanded electricity production from low cost gas ramping so fast it can support the operation of mass electric vehicle EV fleets perhaps by as early as 2030 To be sure this could heavily diminish the need for oil in the economy but more important it outlines a likely date range of strategic energy planners for when they intend to pull the plug on oil and oil s energy role will significantly shrink The costs of developing mass EV fleets are daunting but so also is the other implied and emerging strategy operated by the energy majors and the NOCs of many countries This features gas to oil GTL conversion and use of wet gas containing oil as feedstock for gas based refineries producing liquid fuels GTL is a very capital intensive technology with a long and economically unsuccessful track record but with sufficiently cheap gas sufficient investment capital and continued technology progress it may be possible to expand GTL production from its current tiny and high cost scale Gas feedstock based refineries are projected in a small number of regions with large nearby stranded gas reserves such as Australia s north west shelf but costs remain very high at around 10 000 per barrel day capacity OIL PRICES NOT SET TO DECLINEThe main conclusion on the horizon to 2017 is oil prices are unlikely to decline except under conditions of steep economic recession Global energy company investment in part due to the massive costs of gas asset development and acquisition in part also due to investment in renewable energy and in the non energy petrochemical sector is making a de facto shift away from oil High oil prices and earnings from oil are now more important than ever for energy companies needing to finance their shift into high cost development of gas focused non oil alternatives Within that strategy and to be sure shale oil will have a role especially in the US but rapid expansion of shale oil output is unlikely to compensate the tail off in global net export supply of oil at least to 2017 and probably to 2025 thus maintaining oil prices High oil prices taken as a necessary evil by consumers in many countries and insufficient to persuade or force them to shift to gas fuelled cars or EVs have arguably helped set the path for global energy corporations away from oil Big energy s strategic shift is from limited oil resources and despite their high value to the promise of hyper abundant gas resources despite their lower value and high costs for value adding through electricity production and gas conversion to liquid fuels Not ironically but through simple energy economics oil becomes the energy bridge away from oil Taking only the major role of world car maritime shipping and aviation fleets the global car fleet now very close to 1 billion has a slow predictable turnover and replacement rate and is presently at least 98 oil and LPG fuelled No sudden and radical shift is likely making oil supply a continuing and basic need critical for the world aviation fleet but likely more easily substituted by gas or coal for world shipping fleets Given that oil saving s greatest potential is in transport it is this sector that will likely be the most targeted by energy and economic planners in coming years rather than the present massive focus on renewable based electricity production as gas becomes the favoured fuel for electricity production linked with cogeneration in a growing number of countries |
JPM | Standard Chartered picks ex JPMorgan executive Winters as CEO to replace Sands | By Steve Slater LONDON Reuters Standard Chartered L STAN said former JPMorgan N JPM investment bank boss Bill Winters will take over as chief executive in June to replace Peter Sands after investors demanded change at the helm following two years of problems Asia focused bank Standard Chartered said on Thursday Chairman John Peace will also leave next year and named other changes to its board in a massive overhaul in management following problems ranging from a U S fine for breaking sanctions to a jump in losses from commodities loans Winters 53 is one of the most respected bankers in the industry and has wide experience of investment banking and regulatory issues Standard Chartered shares jumped 3 percent on the news of the appointment He will join the Standard Chartered board in May and take over from Sands the following month and be based in London where he has lived for the past 22 years Winters joined JPMorgan in 1983 as a trainee in New York and moved up the ranks to become co CEO of its investment bank from 2004 until 2009 when he left following a falling out with Chief Executive Jamie Dimon Winters then became one of five members of a British government commission that analyzed how banks could be made structurally safer The panel s recommendations that firms should separate their domestic retail banking operations is being implemented Bill is a globally respected banker and has the right experience and skills to drive the Group s new phase of growth said Peace who said he will remain in his role until next year to help Winters transition Investors started calling for change at the top of Standard Chartered last year citing strategic governance and operational mistakes and saying Sands had been slow to address problems and had not gone far enough in cutting costs Three of the bank s top 30 investors told Reuters in December that Sands should be replaced in 2015 Former McKinsey consultant Sands 53 steered Standard Chartered through the financial crisis helping it to 10 years of record earnings He has been CEO for eight years Some investors have urged Standard Chartered to make wider changes in the board and the bank said on Thursday Jaspal Bindra CEO of its Asia business will also leave this year after 16 years with the bank
It said a further three long standing directors will step down Ruth Markland Paul Skinner and Oliver Stocken and said two new directors will join the board Gay Huey Evans and Jasmine Whitbread LONDON WTB |
JPM | Global equities hit new record as cheap money reigns | By Lionel Laurent LONDON Reuters Global equities set a new record high and bond yields sank to fresh lows on Thursday as investors positioned for an extended era of cheap money ahead of the European Central Bank s looming bond buying scheme There were also signs the euro zone economy may be turning a corner as consumer morale picked up in the bloc s largest economies and bank lending fell at a slower place Central banks battle to keep cash flowing into the financial system to avert a deflationary spiral has driven core European government bond yields into or close to negative territory with German seven year bond yields the latest to go below zero for the first time on Thursday That has pushed investors ever deeper into higher yielding assets like equities and the MSCI All Country World equity index MIWD00000PUS climbed to a new record high of 434 40 points Bets that a U S rate hike might come later than expected triggered by comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen this week also bolstered views that the environment of rock bottom rates would hold for the near future We think central bank easing efforts will continue to provide liquidity to the markets and expect that could help drive flows into equities globally as investors search for yield said Mark Mobius emerging markets fund manager at Franklin Templeton A new record low of 0 003 percent for German seven year sovereign bonds came after Germany sold its first five year debt with negative yields on Wednesday and after Irish borrowing rates fell below 1 percent for the first time There was also good news from Germany on consumer morale which rose to its highest level in more than 13 years heading into March as low oil prices fed through to households On equity markets Asian shares slipped back from a five month high but in Europe corporate updates from blue chips including Anheuser Busch Inbev BR ABI Allianz DE ALVG and Deutsche Telekom DE DTEGn saw the pan European FTSEurofirst 300 FTEU3 rise 0 3 percent About two thirds of the way into Europe s earnings season 55 percent of companies have met or beaten profit forecasts Overall fourth quarter earnings are expected to grow by 19 5 percent according to Thomson Reuters I B E S which would be Europe s best season in 3 1 2 years The financial sector was also in focus after Asia focused bank Standard Chartered L STAN said former JPMorgan N JPM investment bank boss Bill Winters will take over as chief executive in June The bank s shares were up 2 percent Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland L RBS fell 4 percent meanwhile after the lender reported a 2014 loss of 3 5 billion pounds Emerging markets MSCIEF got support from Yellen s comments and a steadier U S dollar with the Russian rouble strengthening for the third straight day Greek equities ATG were down more than 2 percent with the country s fate in focus after it said on Wednesday it would struggle to make debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank this year In commodity markets Brent crude fell toward 61 per barrel after a rally in the previous session as bulging U S crude stockpiles offset indications of a demand recovery
London copper prices neared a six week peak and gold gained for the second day on views of a U S rate hike delay |
JPM | JPMorgan to pay 50 million over improper mortgage practices DOJ | WASHINGTON Reuters JPMorgan Chase N JPM will pay 50 million as part of a national settlement agreement to compensate homeowners in bankruptcy over the use of robo signing and other improper practices the Department of Justice said on Tuesday JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York alt Reuters JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York rel external image
The settlement includes cash payments mortgage loan credits and loan forgiveness to more than 25 000 homeowners the Justice Department said in a statement |
JPM | Neustar faces loss of contract after FCC staff recommendation | WASHINGTON Reuters U S Federal Communications Commission staff on Wednesday recommended that the agency drop Neustar Inc in favor of Ericsson AB subsidiary Telcordia Technologies as a contractor that helps telephone carriers route calls and text messages Neustar s shares slid as much as 17 percent on the news The exclusive government contract which expires on June 30 accounts for about half of the company s revenues The FCC s Wireline Competition Bureau on Wednesday circulated a draft order to the agency commissioners that if adopted would begin contract negotiations with Telcordia Since 1997 Neustar has managed the world s largest local number portability registry that allows consumers and businesses to keep their telephone numbers when switching among providers serving more than 2 000 telecom carriers in the U S and Canada The FCC staff in announcing the draft order said they arrived at the recommendation in favor of Telcordia after weighing bids for technical and managerial competence security considerations and cost effectiveness They said the Ericsson subsidiary had extensive experience in numbering administration Neustar decried the recommendation arguing the agency staff profoundly underestimated the demands put on the contract holder and did not properly evaluate the implications of building a new system The Local Number Portability Administrator vendor selection process has been botched procedurally the company said in a statement Neustar will continue to raise important questions about this process and will review all of its options Sources told Reuters last year that Neustar was considering a potential sale amid interest from private equity firms The company was working with investment bank JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM to review possible options sources said though a sale process may not start until the fate of the contract was finalized |
JPM | Deutsche Bank says no major changes needed to universal model | FRANKFURT Reuters Deutsche Bank DE DBKGn does not need to change its universal banking model dramatically but faces pressure to cut costs like the rest of the banking sector Co CEO Juergen Fitschen said on Thursday Germany s largest bank is carrying out a strategic review which is expected to see it trim overheads and sharpen its focus on profitable business niches Some activities under its current strategy of providing a broad spectrum of financial services globally may be shed We have a strong tendency to continue to support the universal banking model Fitschen told a financial conference I don t think that you have to expect that we must make dramatic changes The bank has promised to reveal its plans in the second quarter this year You have to cut costs There the needs are great and we will face the consequences for the next few years he said referring to the financial sector Fitschen said he was concerned U S regulators would impose additional capital requirements on internationally active banks such as Deutsche which could force it to trim its balance sheet or raise billions of euros in capital to fortify its leverage ratio He said using the leverage ratio as a measure of a bank s robustness was disadvantageous to Deutsche which like other European banks keeps most of the loans it generates on its balance sheet instead of selling them off as U S banks do We d like to have clarity on this issue quickly Fitschen said urging European regulators to stand their ground in negotiations over international standards Fitschen said Deutsche was working to close the book on a series of investigations that threaten it with billions of euros in fines and settlements The bank has paid 7 billion euros 7 7 billion in fines and settlements since 2012 We re seeking to get this behind us as soon as possible The costs are manageable he said Fitschen said he was envious of the profitability U S banks the biggest of which are rivals in the global market for financial services and investment banking I m a little bit jealous that our colleagues in America can earn so much money I sure wish we could do that he said
Wall Street rival JP Morgan N JPM earned 22 billion in net profit in 2014 more than 10 times more than Deutsche s 1 7 billion euros 1 9 billion |
BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Outpaces Stock Market Gains What You Should Know | In the latest trading session Bristol Myers Squibb BMY closed at 48 36 marking a 1 83 move from the previous day This change outpaced the S P 500 s 0 72 gain on the day Elsewhere the Dow gained 0 55 while the tech heavy Nasdaq added 0 71
Coming into today shares of the biopharmaceutical company had lost 6 24 in the past month In that same time the Medical sector lost 0 66 while the S P 500 gained 0 28
Wall Street will be looking for positivity from BMY as it approaches its next earnings report date This is expected to be April 25 2019 The company is expected to report EPS of 1 07 up 13 83 from the prior year quarter Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of 5 80 billion up 11 67 from the year ago period
Looking at the full year our Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of 4 16 per share and revenue of 23 86 billion These totals would mark changes of 4 52 and 5 75 respectively from last year
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for BMY These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short term business trends With this in mind we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company s business outlook
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near term stock prices To benefit from this we have developed the Zacks Rank a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system
The Zacks Rank system which ranges from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell has an impressive outside audited track record of outperformance with 1 stocks generating an average annual return of 25 since 1988 Within the past 30 days our consensus EPS projection remained stagnant BMY currently has a Zacks Rank of 3 Hold
Investors should also note BMY s current valuation metrics including its Forward P E ratio of 11 42 For comparison its industry has an average Forward P E of 15 14 which means BMY is trading at a discount to the group
Meanwhile BMY s PEG ratio is currently 2 42 The PEG ratio is similar to the widely used P E ratio but this metric also takes the company s expected earnings growth rate into account The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 2 12 as of yesterday s close
The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 89 putting it in the top 35 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank includes is listed in order from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
Be sure to follow all of these stock moving metrics and many more on Zacks com |
C | Miners pull FTSE down 0 3 pct UK inflation due | Miners retreat along with easier metal prices
UK September inflation report awaited
Whitbread buoyed by better than expected results
By Jon Hopkins
LONDO WN Oct 13 Reuters Britain s leading shares were
0 3 percent lower early on Tuesday retreating from a 12 month
high set the previous session with investors staying on the
sidelines ahead of UK inflation data and upcoming U S corporate
earnings
By 0757 GMT the FTSE 100 index was 16 63 points lower at
5 193 54 having gained 48 30 points or 0 9 percent to 5 210 17
on Monday its highest close since late September 2008
Weakness in heavweight mining stocks was the main drag on
blue chips as metals prices retreated after a rally on Monday
Among the worst off Lonmin Eurasian Natural Resources
Antofagasta Randgold Resources and Rio Tinto shed 0 5 to 1 2
percent
Rio Tinto delivers a third quarter production update on
Wednesday For a preview double click on
We re taking a bit of a pause first thing after the highs
hit yesterday with investors still having a desire to push
higher but wanting to see the outcome of the third quarter U S
corporate earnings before running too far ahead said David
Morrison market strategist at GFT Global
Investors were watching out for earnings news on Tuesday
from healthcare firm Johnson Johnson and after the U S
close from the world s biggest chip maker Intel
Banking giants JP Morgan Chase Citigroup Goldman Sachs and
Bank of America are all also scheduled to release numbers later
this week
British banks were weaker awaiting news from their U S
peers and with ongoing rights issue concerns lingering
Lloyds Banking Group was the top FTSE 100 faller down 3
percent while Barclays Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard
Chartered lost 0 2 to 2 1 percent
More than a quarter of the staff of the Singapore office of
RBS Coutts have quit in a mass resignation and some could be
joining Swiss rival BSI
HSBC was flat The bank hopes to list its shares in Shanghai
next year becoming one of the first overseas companies to do
so its chief executive Michael Geoghegan told Reuters in an
interview on Monday
WHITBREAD IN DEMAND
Whitbread was easily the top blue chip gainer up 3 2
percent after Britain s biggest hotel and restaurant operator
posted a better than expected first half pretax profit as sales
at its Costa Coffee chain rose by over 20 percent
Tobaccos and beverages were among the top performing sectors
as defensive considerations returned with drinks group Diageo
up 1 1 percent and British American Tobacco ahead 0 9 percent
Utilities got a boost from a positive note on the sector
from Cazenove with United Utilities adding 0 8 percent and
Severn Trent up 1 3 percent as the broker upped its ratings for
both on valuation grounds
Investors eyed UK September inflation data due at 0830 GMT
which will provide more clues on the health of the economy and
the outlook for interest rates
Consumer price inflation is seen rising 0 2 percent for the
month in September bringing the figure for the year to 1 3
percent down from 1 6 percent the previous month
A batch of domestic economic surveys released overnight
painted a fairly positive picture
British retail sales rose at their fastest annual pace in 5
months in September but the rise was skewed by a slump in sales
last year and the timing of the August Bank holiday a survey
from the British Retail Consortium showed
Meanwhile the decline in Britain s manufacturing and
services sectors eased markedly in the third quarter but
probably not enough for the economy to return to growth just
yet a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce showed
And house prices in England and Wales rose in September at
their fastest rate since the credit crunch began more than two
years ago a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors indicated
Editing by John Stonestreet |
C | European Market Update | Markets in consolidation mode as it awaits for more clarity on GreeceEconomic Data EU ECB 1 8B borrowed in overnight loan facility v 2 8B prior 503 4B parked in deposit facility vs 511 4B prior RU Russia Jan Official Reserve Assets 505 4B v 505 0Be ZA South Africa Jan Net Reserves 49 1B v 48 9Be Gross Reserves 51 5B v 49 9Be FI Finland Nov GDP Indicator 1 3 v 0 5 e FI Finland Dec Preliminary Trade Balance 475M v 335M prior FR France Dec Trade Balance 5 0B v 5 4Be CH Swiss Jan Foreign Currency Reserves CHF 227 2B v 254 3B prior CZ Czech Dec Trade Balance CZK 10 5B v 5 5Be DK Denmark Dec Industrial Production M M 5 6 v 0 3 e Industrial Orders M M 19 4 v 2 5 prior HU Hungary Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M M 7 4 v 3 5 prior Y Y 6 7 v 9 3 e TW Taiwan Jan Total Trade Balance 0 4B v 2 3Be Total Exports Y Y 16 8 v 17 0 e Total Imports Y Y 11 9 v 16 7 e HK Hong Kong Jan Foreign Currency Reserves 292 8B v 285 4B prior AT Austria Jan Wholesale Price Index M M 1 4 v 0 6 prior Y Y 1 8 v 3 4 prior NL Netherlands Dec Industrial Production M M 1 4 v 0 0 e Y Y 1 4 v 0 9 e Industrial Sales Y Y No est v 6 7 prior SE Sweden Jan Budget Balance SEK 14 6BB v 90 8B prior SI Singapore Jan Foreign Reserves 245 5B v 237 7B prior NO Norway Dec Industrial Production M M 2 2 v 0 9 prior Y Y 4 9 v 1 2 prior NO Norway Dec Manufacturing Production M M 0 3 v 0 1 e Y Y 0 6 v 0 0 e ZA South Africa Q4 Unemployment Rate 23 9 v 24 8 e IS Israel Jan Foreign Currency Balance 77 1B v 74 9B priorFixed Income ZA South Africa sold total ZAR2 1B vs ZAR2 1B indicated in 2017 2026 and 2041 bonds DK Denmark sold total DKK8 11B in 2021 and 2039 Bonds GR Greece Debt Agency PDMA sold 812M vs 625M indicated in 26 week Bills Avg Yield 4 86 v 4 90 prior Bid to cover 2 72x v 2 80x prior EU ECB allotted 109 5B in 7 Day Main Refinancing Tender vs 110Be at fixed 1 0 HU Hungary Debt Agency AKK sold HUF55B vs HUF40B Targeted in 3 Month Bills Avg Yield 7 32 v 7 41 prior Bid to cover 2 69x v x 2 73x UK DMO sold 4 0B in 1 75 2017 Gilts Avg Yield 1 121 v 1 102 prior Bid to cover 1 82x v 2 02x prior Tail 0 4bps v 0 4bps priorSPEAKERS FIXED INCOME FX COMMODITIES ERRATUMNotes ObservationsAustralia s RBA unexpectedly left its Key Rate unchangedJapan s MOF data confirms stealth intervention 1st since March 2004 IMF warns that China GDP could be cut in half if European crisis escalatesChina banks cuts exposure to EuropeChina could post a January deficit due to effects from the week long Lunar New Year holiday Current expectations is surplus of 9 1B Equities FTSE 100 0 30 at 5876 DAX 0 50 at 6728 CAC 40 0 40 at 3390 IBEX 35 0 80 at 8761 FTSE MIB flat at 16 391 SMI 0 20 at 6134European shares declined during the session among stalling Greece talks and mixed corporate earnings The Greek government is struggling to progress on planned austerity measures which has triggered concerns over a contagion in the Eurozone Fitch noted that Eurozone crisis is likely to be prolonged as a consequence while Citigroup analysts forecast chances of Greece exit from the EMU at 50 within 18 months vs prior forecast of 25 30 In corporate earnings UBS UBSN CH slipped after announcing very disappointing figures Profit fell over 76 due to losses in the investment banking unit Revenues in capital markets were also lower across the board UBS noted that traditional improvements in first quarter activity levels and trading volumes may fail to materialize fully thus essentially giving a profit warning for Q1 Earnings follow the same trend of Deutsche Bank which also disappointed investors last week BP BP UK also slipped after missing analysts estimates even though the dividend increase was a positive development Earnings had however increased thanks to higher crude prices In M A news Glencore agreed to merge with Xstrata XTA UK which would value Xstrata at approx 38 3B However two of its top five investors Standard Life and Schroders said they would vote against the merger as it undervalues the shares of Xstrata Speakers EU s Juncker commented that Greece could not be forced from the euro and added that if there was an exit then other states would have to invest unimaginable sumsEU s Kroes EU would not get into trouble if Greece was forced to exit EMUChina State Administration of Foreign Exchange SAFE commented that while foreign exchange inflows have slowed there had not been large outflows seen Spain Econ Min de Guidos commented in an address to parliament that the Spanish economy was slowing down significantly but reforms should help growth in H2 of the yearGreece PM Papademos to meet with party leaders regarding decision on fiscal rules today at 16 00 local time 15 00 GMT To meet with PASOKs George Papandreou New Democracys Antonis Samaras and the leader of Popular Orthodox Rally LAOS Giorgos Karatzaferis The Greece PM to send new loan terms to party leaders ahead of meetingsGreek debt swap might include State companies according to the local pressChina s PBoC Reiterated it would continue to adopt a prudent monetary policy and guide loans to certain sectors such as agriculture To move forward with asset securitization and ensure available credit for first time home buyersBoE member Salmon commented that he recommended not to weaken reforms to speed implementation Policy makers should not cave in to the temptation to speed up financial sector reform by watering down tough new rules for banks and financial markets The BOE was opposed to broadening the definition of capital proposed under international accords known as Basel III that were aimed at making banks better able to absorb lossesChina might increase its domestic fuel prices as of Feb 8th with diesel and gasoline prices seen rising by CNY300 tonIran parliament said it was prepared to ban oil exports to some EU countriesCurrencies Overall price action remained locked with recent ranges as market participants await concrete debt agreement out of Greece Overall the Euro downside of late has been limited despite Greek debt concern but the 1 3220 January high is providing stiff resistance The AUD remained underpinned around the 1 08 handle during the session aided by the unchanged RBA rate decision earlier today |
C | Currency Majors Analysis February 8 2012 | EUR USDGreek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos postponed a meeting with heads of the political parties supporting his caretaker government a second time in as many days as the government and international creditors haggled over terms to secure a second aid package He met the troika leaders last night unscheduled to speed up the talks and to accord the second bailout package before the this week ends Papademos will meet again with the leaders in Athens today They will meet tonight with the European Commission the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to put the final touches to terms required for a 130 billion euro 172 billion rescue package the spokeswoman said The delay is yet another hitch in completing a package that s been on the table since July as the government struggles to wind up financing to avert a collapse of the economy risking a new round of contagion in the euro area With the country facing a 14 5 billion euro bond payment on March 20 German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that time is running out to reach an accord A Greek official said earlier the government and international creditors were close to a final draft of an agreement on budget and structural measures needed to extend the financial lifeline The euro was at 1 3247 morning time in Tokyo when it climbed to as high as 1 3270 the most since Dec title EUR USD width 600 height 300 GBP USDThe pound is gaining less against the euro during bouts of risk aversion than it did in 2011 signaling its haven appeal is waning according to Citigroup Inc The chart of the day shows the 60 day rolling correlation of the euro pound exchange rates A reading of 1 indicates two assets move in lockstep Investors seeking to avoid the 17 nation currency as European policymakers struggled to solve the region s debt crisis pushed the pound to a 2 7 percent gain in the last month of the year versus a 0 5 percent advance in January People are a bit more concerned with the relatively weak performance of the U K economy and the very easy trajectory for U K monetary policy We wouldn t be surprised if that translated to a greater degree of underperformance from the pound The U K has fallen back into recession and will grow less than previously forecast according to a National Institute for Economic and Social Research report on Feb 3 Additional liquidity may erode sterling s value after Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen said Feb 2 there is reason to buy an additional 75 billion pounds of government bonds beyond the monetary easing program that ended last title GBP USD width 600 height 300 USD JPYThe yen dropped to a one week low against the dollar after government data showed Japan carried out so called stealth intervention to weaken it in November Japan s currency fell versus all but one of its major peers after the Ministry of Finance said the nation sold 1 02 trillion yen 13 2 billion against the dollar on the first four days of November in addition to 8 07 trillion yen on Oct 31 The euro rose against the yen before Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos meets the leaders of the three parties supporting him in a bid to agree on a second aid package The yen has weakened modestly reflecting the increasing risks that the Japanese authorities may intervene again to damp yen strength The latest report confirmed as widely expected that the Japanese authorities carried on undertaking stealth intervention to weaken the yen in early November The yen fell 0 3 percent to 76 81 per dollar morning time in New York after dropping to 76 83 the weakest since Jan 27 The currency depreciated 0 2 percent to 100 70 per euro USD JPY title USD JPY width 600 height 300 USD CADCanada s dollar gained versus its U S counterpart as meetings on an international rescue of Greece stirred optimism Europe may contain its sovereign debt crisis increasing investor appetite for risk The currency fell earlier on concern Greece was struggling to win its second bailout The loonie erased losses as the euro gained versus most major peers U S stocks rose and crude oil Canada s biggest export climbed on bets an agreement on the package will be reached Prospects of an agreement on Greece are making people fell all warm and fuzzy which is panning out into a risk on trade and that is boosting the Canadian dollar The Canadian currency appreciated 0 2 percent to 99 44 cents per U S dollar after weakening earlier as much as 0 4 percent It advanced on Feb 3 to 99 28 cents the strongest level since Oct 31 One Canadian dollar buys 1 0056 Implied volatility for one month options on the Canadian dollar versus the greenback fell almost to a nine month low It touched 8 06 percent after reaching 7 87 percent on Feb 3 the least since April title USD CAD width 600 height 300 |
C | Talking Forex Weekly FX Wrap 10 02 12 | EUR USDIn spite of reports late on Friday that Greek far right party leader refused to vote for a bailout agreement which was followed by numerous resignations from coalition government the pair managed to settle the week with a net gain of around 100pips Of note the spread between the 3 month EUR USD implied and historical volatility held steady while the 1 month RR 25 delta settled down at 1 7375 1 5550 on Monday This week saw the ECB leave the benchmark borrowing rate at 1 however Draghi announced changes to collateral requirements and also said that the stress in the financial markets has diminished due to monetary policy measures In addition to that there were reports that the ECB is said to be willing to exchange Greek bonds with EFSF However it remains to be seen what effect using the EFSF for such spurious purposes will have on the demand for EFSF issued bonds in the future Of note Citigroup said the risk of a Greek exit from Euro has risen to 50 having previously seen a 25 30 chance over the next 18 months In terms of technical levels supports are seen at 1 3176 00 and then at 1 3089 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at the 30Day Upper Bollinger Level at 1 3371 and then at 1 3388 GBP USDThe pair failed to benefit from speculation that debt swap talks in Greece are nearing an end and settled the week little changed in close proximity to the key 1 5800 level Of note just like the ECB the BoE kept the benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 0 5 but boosted the Asset Purchase Facility APF to GBP 325bln while also tweaking maturity basket However as noted by Fathom Consulting the Bank of England should redesign its quantitative easing program to target the overvalued housing market and address the source of Britain s sluggish growth The spread between 1 month GBP USD implied volatility vs realised volatility widened to around 0 522 while technical studies indicate that support levels are located at 1 5752 30 and then at 1 5642 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at 1 5886 1 5931 which is the 200DMA line followed by the 30Day Upper Bollinger Level at 1 5960 USD JPYThe pair trended higher throughout the session after Japanese PM Noda has said there is no doubt that the JPY is posing downside risks for the domestic economy further commenting that he will examine the idea of setting up a JPY fund to buy foreign assets In addition to that Japan s finance minister said that JPY has become a target for speculation but Japan is ready to intervene if needed In terms of technical levels are seen at 77 19 15 while resistance levels are seen at the 200DMA line at 78 06 followed by the 61 8 retracement of the 79 55 76 03 move at 78 21 |
JPM | JPMorgan reviewing size of trading units Bloomberg | Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM is considering shrinking some of its trading businesses as it expects a new federal reserve proposal to make these businesses less profitable Bloomberg reported JPMorgan is reviewing the size of some of its capital intensive units such as interest rates trading prime brokerage and delta one equities desk Daniel Pinto chief executive of JPMorgan s corporate and investment bank told Bloomberg in an interview JPMorgan isn t necessarily looking at exiting any businesses or significantly cutting jobs Bloomberg quoted Pinto as saying In December the U S Federal Reserve proposed that eight of the largest U S banks will need to hold an extra capital cushion and said the firms will need more equity if they rely on risky types of debt Fed officials estimated the banks would face a surcharge of between 1 and 4 5 percent of risk weighted assets Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said at the time that JPMorgan would need more than 20 billion of additional capital to comply Pinto is expected to discuss his review at JPMorgan s investor day on Feb 24 Bloomberg reported JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York alt Reuters JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York rel external image
JPMorgan was not immediately available for comment |
JPM | HSBC says Swiss scandal has brought shame on bank | By Steve Slater and Matt Scuffham LONDON Reuters HSBC L HSBA reported a 17 percent fall in annual pretax profit and cut its profitability target saying allegations its Swiss business had helped customers to dodge taxes had brought shame on the bank Results from Europe s biggest bank on Monday reflected the cost of past misconduct and of protecting itself against the impact of further scandals HSBC said allegations about its Geneva based arm raided last week by Swiss officials and now the subject of a UK inquiry had badly damaged its image A number of us myself included think the practices of the private bank back in the past are a source of shame and reputational damage to HSBC I think shame would be reasonable noun to use Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver told reporters Gulliver was himself thrust into the center of the scandal on Sunday when Britain s Guardian newspaper said he had sheltered millions of pounds in HSBC s Swiss private bank via a Panamanian company HSBC confirmed that Gulliver has a Swiss bank account and while there is no suggestion he broke any rules the revelations come at a sensitive time HSBC s chairman Douglas Flint is due to appear before British lawmakers on Wednesday to answer questions about the bank s alleged complicity in tax evasion Gulliver is among the highest paid bank executives in Europe with a pay packet last year amounting to 7 6 million pounds 11 7 million This is down from 8 million in 2013 after his bonus was cut to reflect the bank s failure to stamp out misconduct HSBC s pretax profit of 18 7 billion for 2014 was down from 22 6 billion the year before and below the average analyst forecast of 21 billion after a 3 7 billion bill for provisions fines and settlements arising from a range of misdeeds including attempted manipulation of foreign exchange markets With the U S Department of Justice yet to finish its forex probe HSBC added an extra 550 million to cover future forex related fines and warned it could face a 500 million bill to compensate U S customers sold debt protection products Shares in the bank fell nearly 6 percent their biggest intra day drop since November 2011 to hit a near 2 1 2 year low By 5 17 a m ET they were down 5 9 percent at 569 4 pence For all the recent media furor around potential conduct issues it is the underlying performance which we believe should be the greatest cause of investor concern right across revenues costs and impairments said Ian Gordon analyst at Investec which rates HSBC as a hold RETURN ON EQUITY Gulliver appointed CEO in 2011 has sold or closed 77 businesses and axed over 50 000 jobs to try and simplify HSBC s sprawling business and boost earnings after higher capital requirements imposed since the financial crisis make it more difficult for large banks to make a profit Gulliver said the job was far from done but rejected some calls from regulators or investors for breaking up big banks such as itself or JPMorgan N JPM We re still on a journey to simplify the firm and I don t rule out that we might make more disposals But I don t think the firm is too big to manage You can see the validity of the business on the revenue side even if the cost of running a big bank has clearly gone up he said HSBC has increased the amount of capital it holds to absorb potential losses by over 60 percent since before the crisis Gulliver said the bank intended to increase its core capital to between 12 13 percent from 10 9 percent currently to give it enough reserves to deal with regulators demands The bank cut its target for return on equity to more than 10 percent in the next 3 5 years from 12 15 percent originally set in 2011 This measure of profitability fell to 7 3 percent in 2014 from 9 2 percent in 2013 Gulliver said the bank needed to improve profitability in Latin America Turkey and the United States and in areas of its commercial and investment bank Before the financial crisis returns in excess of 10 percent were the norm for large banks Group revenues were stable and the bank s commercial banking division generated record profits but its global banking and markets division which includes HSBC s investment bank reported a 38 percent drop in profits due to lower revenues and higher costs Underlying operating expenses were 37 9 billion in 2014 up 6 1 percent from 2013 showing the struggle Gulliver is having to lower costs in the face of tougher regulation and the need for more compliance staff That continues to depress returns
It paid or set aside 3 4 billion on items such as the forex fine and compensation for UK customers mis sold insurance products |
JPM | JPMorgan eyes 1 4 billion in cost savings in 2015 | By David Henry and Peter Rudegeair NEW YORK Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM said on Tuesday it is aiming to save about 1 4 billion in annual expenses mainly in consumer and investment banking as a proposed government requirement to hold more capital is expected to be a drag on profits The largest U S bank as measured by assets expects annual expenses in 2015 to fall to roughly 57 billion from 58 4 billion in 2014 according to presentations at its annual investor day The bank is looking to lower expenses by 2 8 billion in its investment bank excluding legal costs and by about 2 billion in its consumer bank Some of the savings will be offset by investments elsewhere in the company Just over half the investment banking expense reductions will come in the form of simplifying businesses but JPMorgan will also look to cut technology and operational costs by 1 billion and front office personnel costs by 300 million In a presentation finance chief Marianne Lake cited about 3 billion in cost efficiencies as one reason why JPMorgan disagreed with analysts and investors who said it would be better for shareholders if the bank were to break itself up If JPMorgan were to split in two Lake said it would be required to duplicate its finance risk and audit divisions among others at great expense These are not trivial things Lake said Scale has always defined the winner in banking Nevertheless the larger and more complex banks become the more regulators have insisted they hold on to more capital as a cushion against potential losses that could destabilize the financial system On Tuesday JPMorgan said it has raised its target for a key regulatory measure of capital to 12 percent from the 10 percent plus it gave a year earlier The goal includes a buffer to protect the bank from swings below its expected total requirement from U S regulators In order to prevent even higher capital requirements executives said the bank will shed up to 100 billion of non operating deposits or extra cash that clients keep in their accounts The bank also lowered its target for return on tangible common equity a measure of profitability to about 15 percent compared with a range of 15 percent to 16 percent announced a year ago The target is what JPMorgan says should be typical through an economic cycle JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York alt Reuters JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York rel external image
JPMorgan shares were up 2 5 percent to 60 87 in morning trading |
BMY | Infinity Inks Deal With Roche For Phase II Study Of IPI 549 | Shares of Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ INFI rose almost 24 after the company announced that it has entered into a master clinical supply agreement with Roche OTC RHHBY Per the deal Roche will supply Tecentriq atezolizumab to Infinity for use in MARIO 3 a phase II multi arm combination cohort study The study will evaluate Infinity s lead immuno oncology candidate IPI 549in combination with Tecentriq and Abraxane nab paclitaxel in front line triple negative breast cancer TNBC and IPI 549 in combination with Tecentriq and Avastin bevacizumab in front line renal cell cancer RCC The study is anticipated to initiate in the second half of 2019 Shares of Infinity have declined 26 3 in the past year compared with the s decline of 15 2 The data that will be generated in the front line with MARIO 3 complements the data that will be generated in the second line with MARIO 275 MARIO 275 being conducted in collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY is a phase II study evaluating the combination of IPI 549 and Opdivo nivolumab in immuno oncology naive patients with urothelial cancer The study will be initiated in the second quarter of 2019 In November 2018 Infinity announced updated clinical and translational data from the MARIO 1 phase I Ib study The data showed that IPI 549 and Opdivo can reverse resistance to an immediate prior checkpoint inhibitor therapy It also showed early signs of clinical activity in chemotherapy resistant TNBC The results from this study led to the initiation of MARIO 3 and MARIO 275 studies In 2019 the company will also initiate a study in collaboration with Arcus BioSceinecs Inc NYSE RCUS to evaluate IPI 549 combined with the latter s adenosine inhibitor AB928 and chemotherapy in patients with relapsed refractory TNBC 2018 ResultsThe company reported a loss of 20 cents in 2018 narrower than a loss of 83 cents in 2017 Revenues in 2018 were 22 1 million up from 6 million in 2017 Revenues in 2018 were related to the amount received from Verastem for the approval by the FDA of duvelisib for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma after at least two prior therapies as well as adult patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma after at least two prior systemic therapies and royalties on net sales of duvelisib following the FDA approval 2019 OutlookThe company expects net loss for 2019 to range from 30 to 40 million Infinity expects that its existing cash cash equivalents and available for sale securities will be adequate to satisfy the company s capital needs into the second half of 2020 Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc Price Consensus and EPS Surprise Zacks RankInfinity currently carries a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see Is Your Investment Advisor Fumbling Your Financial Future See how you can more effectively safeguard your retirement with a new Special Report 4 Warning Signs Your Investment Advisor Might Be Sabotaging Your Financial Future |
BMY | Novartis NVS Alcon Acquired PowerVision For 285 Million | Novartis NYSE NVS announced that its eye care unit Alcon acquired privately held U S based medical device development company PowerVision Inc Per the terms Alcon paid 285 million to PowerVision at closing with additional payments based on specified regulatory and commercial milestones starting 2023 PowerVision develops fluid based accommodating intraocular lenses for cataract surgery patients The acquisition will advance Alcon s commitment toward driving growth and innovation in advanced technology intraocular lenses AT IOLS for cataract surgery patients Last month Novartis shareholders approved the proposed 100 spin off of the Alcon eye care division The spin off is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2019 The spin off will be completed through the distribution of a dividend in kind of new Alcon shares to Novartis shareholders and ADR American Depositary Receipt holders The last year was a transformative year for Novartis as it restructured its business to focus on becoming a core drug focused company powered by data and digital technologies In September 2018 Novartis announced that it agreed to sell selected portions of its Sandoz U S portfolio specifically the Sandoz U S dermatology business and the U S oral solids portfolio The divestiture is in accordance with Sandoz s strategy of focusing on complex generics value added medicines and biosimilars to achieve sustainable and profitable growth in the United States in the long run The transaction will be completed in 2019 Novartis also sold its stake in consumer healthcare joint venture to GlaxoSmithKline NYSE GSK for 13 billion Novartis stock has gained 11 8 in the past six months compared with the s 4 2 growth
The company is looking to solidify its presence in the gene therapy space It acquired U S based clinical stage gene therapy company AveXis Inc The company also acquired Endocyte to expand expertise in radiopharmaceuticals We expect further acquisitions in the coming months as the company looks to further restructure its business
Zacks Rank
Novartis currently carries a Zacks Rank 4 Sell A couple of better ranked stocks in the healthcare sector are Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY and AstraZeneca PLC NYSE AZN Both the stocks carry a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see
Bristol Myers earnings estimates have been revised 1 and 6 4 upward for 2019 and 2020 respectively over the past 90 days
AstraZeneca s earnings estimates have been revised 1 7 north for 2019 over the past 60 days
Is Your Investment Advisor Fumbling Your Financial Future
See how you can more effectively safeguard your retirement with a new Special Report 4 Warning Signs Your Investment Advisor Might Be Sabotaging Your Financial Future |
BMY | Bristol Myers Pfizer Release Phase IV Data On Eliquis | Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY along with partner Pfizer Inc NYSE PFE announced results from the phase IV AUGUSTUS study evaluating the blood thinner drug Eliquis apixaban versus vitamin K antagonists VKAs The study evaluates the safety of Eliquis as compared to warfarin or other VKA in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation NVAF and a recent acute coronary syndrome ACS or for those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention PCI
In the study apart from Eliquis or VKA patients were also randomized to aspirin or placebo and received a P2Y12 inhibitor AUGUSTUS is the largest study in this high risk patient population requiring both anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapies
The study demonstrated that at six months patients receiving a P2Y12 inhibitor with or without aspirin who were treated with Eliquis had lower rates of death or hospitalization and similar rates of death or ischemic events compared to those assigned to VKA The results also showed that patients receiving a P2Y12 inhibitor and an anticoagulant who were treated with aspirin had similar rates of death or hospitalization and similar rates of death or ischemic events compared to those assigned to placebo
Shares of Bristol Myers have plunged 22 2 in the past year against the s growth of 13 2
We remind investors that Eliquis is already approved for the reduction in the risk of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with NVAF treatment of deep vein thrombosis DVT and pulmonary embolism PE and reduction in the risk of recurrent DVT and PE following initial therapy and prophylaxis of DVT which may lead to PE in patients who have undergone hip or knee replacement surgery Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price
Zacks Rank and Other Stocks to Consider
Bristol Myers currently carries a Zacks Rank 2 Buy
Some other top ranked stocks from the healthcare sector are Celgene Corp NASDAQ CELG and BioDelivery Sciences International Inc NASDAQ BDSI While Celgene carries a a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy BioDelivery carries a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see
Celgene s earnings per share estimates have increased from 10 34 to 10 73 for 2019 and from 12 28 to 12 76 for 2020 in the past 60 days The company delivered a positive earnings surprise in all the trailing four quarters with average of 2 65
BioDelivery Sciences loss per share estimates have narrowed from 25 cents to 20 cents for 2019 over the past 60 days The company delivered a positive earnings surprise in three of the trailing four quarters with average of 16 53
Is Your Investment Advisor Fumbling Your Financial Future
See how you can more effectively safeguard your retirement with a new Special Report 4 Warning Signs Your Investment Advisor Might Be Sabotaging Your Financial Future |
BMY | Large Cap Pharmaceuticals Industry Outlook A Recovery Ahead | The Zacks industry comprises some of the largest global companies that develop multi million dollar drugs for a broad range of therapeutic areas such as neuroscience cardiovascular and metabolism rare diseases immunology and oncology Some of these companies also make vaccines animal health medical devices and consumer related healthcare products All these players invest millions of dollars in their product pipelines and line extensions of their already marketed drugs
Here are the industry s three major themes Demand driven growth in sales of new products successful innovation and product line expansion strong clinical study results frequent FDA approvals continued strong performance of key products growing demand for drugs especially for rare to treat diseases an aging population and increased health care spending are some of the factors boosting this industry s growth A faster drug approval process and the proposed removal of outdated regulations which are escalating costs and slowing down innovation are the other positives Mergers and acquisitions M A activity is increasing following the tax reform Big players are on the lookout for companies with innovative pipelines technology Meanwhile in licensing deals continue to be popular with several big companies collaborating with smaller and mid sized players on promising mid to late stage pipeline candidates or interesting technology These deals make sense for both larger and smaller companies While the big shots are able to improve their pipelines with prospective candidates the smaller entities gain access to a non dilutive source of funds that allows consistent investment in the pipelines Headwinds for the industry include government scrutiny of high drug prices pricing pressure intensifying branded competition rising rivalry from biosimilar and generic products a slowdown in growth of legacy products and major pipeline setbacks Overall we believe that pipeline success cost cutting measures share buybacks product launches ramped up M A and collaboration activities should keep the sector afloat going forward
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright Prospects
The group s is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks
The Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank 96 which places it at the top 38 of more than 250 Zacks industries Our research shows that the top 50 of the Zacks ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50 by a factor of more than 2 to 1
Before we present a few large drug stocks that are well positioned to outperform the market based on a strong earnings outlook let s take a look at the industry s stock market performance and its current valuation
Industry Underperforms Sector S P 500
The Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is a 14 stock group within the broader sector It has underperformed the S P 500 and the Zacks Medical Sector on a year to date basis
While the stocks in this industry have collectively risen 3 7 year to date the Zacks S P 500 Composite and the Zacks Medical Sector have rallied 12 6 and 9 2 respectively Year to Date Price Performance
Industry s Current Valuation
On the basis of the forward 12 month price to earnings P E ratio a commonly used multiple for valuing large pharma companies the industry is currently trading at 15 43X compared with the S P 500 s 16 76X and the Zacks Medical sector s 20 53X
Over the last five years the industry has traded as high as 18 10X as low as 13 94X and at a median of 15 84X as the chart below shows
Forward 12 Month Price to Earnings P E Ratio
Bottom Line
In order to succeed in a changing global market and evolv ing healthcare landscape pharma ceutical companies need to adopt innovative business models invest in new technologies raise investments in personalized medicines and seek external partners and collabora tors for complementary strengths
The sector may face some volatility due to the drug pricing issue pricing re imbursement pressure stiff competition sluggish legacy product sales loss of patent exclusivity of some key drugs and pipeline related setbacks Also the fourth quarter results were mostly below expectations and the earnings and sales outlook for 2019 was rather soft
However pipeline success in innovative and important therapeutic areas cost controlling share repurchases product introductions heightened M A activity and appropriate utilization of cash should put the sector on a firm footing as the year progresses
In the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals universe four companies have a Zacks Rank 2 Buy Most of these have witnessed positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days
You can see
Bayer DE BAYGN Aktiengesellschaft BAYRY This Leverkusen Germany based drug giant has seen a 9 2 rise in share price so far this year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this 2 Ranked stock s current year EPS has been inched 0 5 up over the past 60 days Price and Consensus BAYRY
Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY BMY The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this New York based drugmaker s current year EPS has been revised 6 5 downward over the past 60 days Bristol Myers has a Zacks Rank of 2 However the stock has declined 4 1 so far this year Price and Consensus BMY
AstraZeneca plc AZN The stock of this Cambridge United Kingdom based drugmaker has moved 12 1 north year to date The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this Zacks 2 Ranked company s current fiscal EPS has been raised 1 7 over the past 60 days Price and Consensus AZN
Roche Holding SIX ROG AG RHHBY Shares of this Swiss drugmaker have gained 8 9 this year so far The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year EPS has been revised 1 3 upward over the past 60 days Roche carries a Zacks Rank 2 Price and Consensus RHHBY
Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above would you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year
Who wouldn t Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity In 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 the portfolio scored well into double digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as 61 5 And from 2012 2017 while the market boomed 126 3 Zacks Top 10s reached an even more sensational 181 9 |
C | Binary Options Daily Analysis Chinese GDP Better than Expected Lifting Markets | EquitiesGDP data from China showed the economy grew at 8 9 in the last quarter better than forecast The news sent the Shanghai Composite soaring 4 2 despite the fact that the figure was lower than last quarter s 9 1 growth Across the region stocks rallied particularly in neighboring Hong Kong where the Hang Seng jumped 3 2 to 19638 The Nikkei advanced 1 1 to 8466 the Kospi climbed 1 8 and the ASX rose by 1 7 The upbeat sentiment continued in Europe as the DAX rallied 1 8 the CAC40 gained 1 4 and the FTSE rose 7 Automakers posted a 2 8 gain as fear of a Chinese hard landing abated US stocks posted smaller gains The Dow tacked on 60 points to 12482 the Nasdaq advanced 6 and the S P 500 gained 4 Citigroup shares tumbled 8 2 after reporting weaker than expected earnings while Wells Fargo inched up 7 after beating estimates Financials traded mostly lower as the weight of Citigroup s disappointment hit the sector Research in Motion surged 8 on takeover rumors and Sears rocketed 9 5 higher amid rumors the company will be going private Cruise operator Carnival tumbled nearly 14 as the market reacted to the weekend crash of a cruise ship off the coast of Italy CurrenciesA successful bond auction in Spain helped boost European currencies The Swiss Franc rallied 8 to 1 0533 the Euro gained 6 to 1 2734 and the Pound inched up 1 to 1 5332 The Canadian Dollar edged up 3 after the Bank of Canada kept rates steady at 1 In the Pacific region the Australian Dollar climbed 7 to 1 0379 and the Yen closed down fractionally at 76 82 Economic OutlookThe Empire State manufacturing index blew past expectations rising to 13 5 from last month s 9 5 reading its highest level since April Germany s ZEW economic sentiment indicator improved considerably from last month s 53 8 reading climbing to 32 5 Wednesday s economic reports will include PPI industrial production the housing market index and weekly mortgage applications |
C | Crunch Time in Greek Debt Talks | Markets are caught between joy and disconsolation at the moment On the one hand they know that central banks are committing to ever greater money creation efforts in order to keep the present economic show on the road and Mr Market loves nothing more than free money But as long as the shadow of a disorderly Greek default persists along with the possibility that more peripheral eurozone nations will also be forced into a similar position bulls can t rest easy just yet As Reuters reports Greek political leaders face crunch talks today over a rescue package that must be approved by eurozone governments the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund before February 15 in order to complete legal procedures for a bond swap deal for a March 20 bond redemption Citigroup expects Greece to avoid disorderly default but raised the chances of a Greek euro area exit to 50 percent over the next 18 months up from 25 30 percent If as seems likely they do arrive at a face saving deal for Greece this will provide further impetus for gains in equities and commodities This should also encourage gains in the euro at the dollar s expense Gold and silver should be supported by a weakening dollar but gold may suffer in relation to other precious metals on account of its greater safe haven status Hedge funds will be looking to put money to work in risk assets which should mean greater gains in metals with industrial utility Thus a falling gold silver price ratio looks likely over the coming months with sentiment improving on the US economy and the European Central Bank becoming ever more Anglo Saxon in its approach to monetary policy Easy money policies from the ECB make it far more likely that the eurozone will hold together over the short and medium term at the expense of savers and those citizens of northern European countries such as the Netherlands and Germany who would be enjoying far greater purchasing power if they still had their own currencies We await the results of today s Greek talks with interest |
C | FX Wrap February 7 2012 | EUR USDThe pair finished the session higher following reports that Greek leaders are working on final bailout document however it remains to be seen whether a deal will finally be reached this week Of note Citigroup said the risk of a Greek exit from Euro has risen to 50 having previously seen a 25 30 chance over the next 18 months The bank added that the costs of a Greek exit to the rest of Euro area would be moderate and expects a deal on the second Greek bailout seeing no disorderly default in March While in terms of European economic releases German Industrial Production data fell below expectations for the month of December posting a 2 9 fall while the figure was expected to stay flat at 0 0 In terms of technical levels supports are seen at 1 3172 1 3089 and then at 1 3026 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at 1 3244 82 and then at the 100DMA line at 1 3335 GBP USDDespite starting the session on a back foot the pair managed to settle near the unchanged level following a rally after it was reported that Greek officials are working on final bailout document In terms of UK related macro economic data releases UK same store sales have fallen as consumer caution has returned to the UK economy this caution has been reflected in the second worst January performance since the measure began 1995 Finally technical studies indicate that support levels are located at 1 5730 07 and then at 1 5642 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at 1 5862 88 and then at the 200DMA line at 1 5940 USD JPYThe pair trended higher throughout the session on the back of a firmer USD and also following reports overnight relating to the most recent FX intervention by the BoJ which reminded market participants of the central banks willingness to intervene in FX markets Of note the Japanese Ministry of Finance said that it carried out JPY 1 02trl worth of unannounced intervention during the first four days of November after selling a record JPY 8 07trl on October 31 |
JPM | JPMorgan to pay 500 million in mortgage settlement | By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM has agreed to pay 500 million to end more than six years of class action litigation over Bear Stearns sale of 17 58 billion of mortgage securities that proved defective during the U S housing and financial crises The all cash settlement was made public late Monday and requires approval by U S District Judge Laura Taylor Swain in Manhattan It resolves claims that Bear which JPMorgan bought in 2008 misled investors when it sold certificates backed by more than 47 000 largely subprime and low documentation Alt A mortgages in 14 offerings from May 2006 to April 2007 Bear was accused of making false and misleading statements in offering documents about underwriting guidelines used by its EMC Mortgage unit Countrywide Home Loans Wells Fargo and other lenders and the accuracy of associated property appraisals While Bear was not accused of fraud investors sought to hold it strictly liable and negligent for their losses They said that while most of the certificates were once rated triple A at least 16 96 billion fell to junk status JPMorgan denied wrongdoing in agreeing to settle The largest U S bank will pay an additional 5 million to cover administration costs A JPMorgan spokesman declined to comment The accord is separate from JPMorgan s 13 billion settlement with regulators in November 2013 over mortgage securities sales It was announced three days after the New York based bank agreed to pay 99 million plus 500 000 for costs to resolve litigation accusing it of conspiring with rival banks to rig prices in the foreign exchange market Investors in the Bear lawsuit were led by the Public Employees Retirement System of Mississippi and the New Jersey Carpenters Health Fund Their lawyers led by Bernstein Litowitz Berger Grossmann and by Cohen Milstein Sellers Toll plan to seek legal fees of up to 17 percent of the settlement amount JPMorgan has resolved similar litigation over mortgage offerings from the former Washington Mutual Inc It still faces litigation over some of its own mortgage offerings JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York alt Reuters JP Morgan Chase Co sign outside headquarters in New York rel external image
The case is In re Bear Stearns Mortgage Pass Through Certificates Litigation U S District Court Southern District of New York No 08 08093 |
BMY | Clovis CLVS Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates Rubraca Sales Recover | Clovis Oncology Inc NASDAQ CLVS incurred adjusted loss of 1 88 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018 wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 1 68 and the year ago loss of 1 27 per share Net revenues entirely from Clovis only marketed drug Rubraca were approximately 30 4 million in the quarter up 33 3 sequentially The top line however missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30 57 million The company had recorded total revenues of 17 million entirely from Rubraca sales in the year ago quarter Clovis stated that the drug s sales showed strong sequential growth in the fourth quarter as the company was able to expand the PARP inhibitor market through its awareness programs as well as increase its share in the segment This fact is a breather for investors as on its third quarter earnings call the company had said that it was facing stiff competition in capturing significant share in the ovarian cancer market Rubraca sales in the quarter outpaced the company s expectation of 22 8 million announced on the third quarter earnings call Shares of Clovis increased almost 2 3 on Feb 26 following the earnings release However the stock has lost 55 1 in the past year Operating Expenses Cash DetailsDuring the fourth quarter research development expenses increased 87 4 year over year to 71 2 million primarily due to increased expenses for clinical studies on Rubraca in new oncology indications Selling general and administrative SG A expenses escalated 27 6 year over year to 49 1 million reflecting increased activities to support commercialization of Rubraca in the United States as well as Europe Cash used in operating activities in the quarter was 82 7 million higher than 65 6 million in the year ago quarter Clovis ended the quarter with 520 1 million of cash equivalents and available for sale securities compared with 604 4 million as of Sep 30 2018 Full Year ResultsClovis recorded total revenues of 95 4 million in 2018 up 71 8 from the year ago period However adjusted loss per share for the year widened 27 5 to 6 53 Update on RubracaIn January 2019 Rubraca received approval for the second indication in Europe as a maintenance treatment for recurrent ovarian cancer patients irrespective of BRCA mutation who have responded to platinum based chemotherapy The company is planning to launch the drug in March starting with Germany and continue in other European countries through 2019 and 2020 Clovis is planning to file a supplemental new drug application sNDA in late 2019 seeking label expansion of Rubraca in advanced prostate cancer based on the availability of mature data from the TRITON clinical study program In October the company presented encouraging initial data from the phase II TRITON2 study evaluating Rubraca in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer The company has a collaboration with Bristol Myers NYSE BMY to develop Rubraca in combination with the latter s PD L1 inhibitor Opdivo for several cancer indications During the quarter Clovis expanded the agreement to include its pipeline candidate lucitanib The phase III ATHENA study evaluating Rubraca plus Opdivo as first line maintenance treatment in advanced ovarian cancer is currently enrolling patients Our TakeThe adoption of Rubraca in maintenance setting in the United States was on the path of recovery Although the company is facing challenges for the expansion in the early line of therapy its awareness programs are aiding the drug s market share growth However Clovis might face challenges initially in Europe as it launches the drug for maintenance setting Notably Rubraca is the first approved PARP inhibitor in Europe that is available for treatment as well as maintenance treatment for ovarian cancer This may help the drug to gain market share boosting its prospect However the market is competitive with the presence of Glaxo s NYSE GSK Zejula and Merck AstraZeneca s NYSE AZN Lynparza Operating expenses are expected to rise in 2019 as the company will incur higher investments to support Rubraca s launch in Europe and expanded label in the United States Zacks Rank Clovis has a Zacks Rank 4 Sell You can see Is Your Investment Advisor Fumbling Your Financial Future See how you can more effectively safeguard your retirement with a new Special Report 4 Warning Signs Your Investment Advisor Might Be Sabotaging Your Financial Future |
BMY | Why Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Is A Great Dividend Stock Right Now | Getting big returns from financial portfolios whether through stocks bonds ETFs other securities or a combination of all is an investor s dream But for income investors generating consistent cash flow from each of your liquid investments is your primary focus
Cash flow can come from bond interest interest from other types of investments and of course dividends A dividend is that coveted distribution of a company s earnings paid out to shareholders and investors often view it by its dividend yield a metric that measures the dividend as a percent of the current stock price Many academic studies show that dividends account for significant portions of long term returns with dividend contributions exceeding one third of total returns in many cases
Bristol Myers Squibb in Focus
Headquartered in New York Bristol Myers Squibb BMY is a Medical stock that has seen a price change of 3 5 so far this year The biopharmaceutical company is paying out a dividend of 0 41 per share at the moment with a dividend yield of 3 05 compared to the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry s yield of 2 74 and the S P 500 s yield of 1 93
Taking a look at the company s dividend growth its current annualized dividend of 1 64 is up 2 5 from last year In the past five year period Bristol Myers Squibb has increased its dividend 4 times on a year over year basis for an average annual increase of 2 42 Any future dividend growth will depend on both earnings growth and the company s payout ratio a payout ratio is the proportion of a firm s annual earnings per share that it pays out as a dividend Bristol Myers s current payout ratio is 40 This means it paid out 40 of its trailing 12 month EPS as dividend
Earnings growth looks solid for BMY for this fiscal year The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2019 is 4 15 per share representing a year over year earnings growth rate of 4 27
Bottom Line
Investors like dividends for many reasons they greatly improve stock investing profits decrease overall portfolio risk and carry tax advantages among others However not all companies offer a quarterly payout
Big established firms that have more secure profits are often seen as the best dividend options but it s fairly uncommon to see high growth businesses or tech start ups offer their stockholders a dividend Income investors have to be mindful of the fact that high yielding stocks tend to struggle during periods of rising interest rates That said they can take comfort from the fact that BMY is not only an attractive dividend play but also represents a compelling investment opportunity with a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy |
BMY | Is Bristol Myers BMY A Solid Pick For Value Investors | Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment After all who wouldn t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process Let s put Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value oriented investors right now or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks PE RatioA key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio or PE for short This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock s current PE ratio with a where this ratio has been in the past b how it compares to the average for the industry sector and c how it compares to the market as a whole On this front Bristol Myers has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 12 9 as you can see in the chart below This level actually compares pretty favorably with the market at large as the PE for the S P 500 stands at about 17 4 If we focus on the long term PE trend Bristol Myers current PE level puts it below its midpoint of 25 3 over the past five years Further the stock s PE also compares favorably with the Zacks Medical sector s trailing twelve months PE ratio which stands at 20 4 At the very least this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now compared to its peers We should also point out that Bristol Myers has a forward PE ratio price relative to this year s earnings of just 12 4 so it is fair to say that a slightly more value oriented path may be ahead for Bristol Myers stock in the near term too P CF RatioAn often overlooked ratio that can still be a great indicator of value is the price cash flow metric This ratio doesn t take amortization and depreciation into account so can give a more accurate picture of the financial health in a business This is a preferred metric to some valuation investors because cash flows are a generally less prone to manipulation by the company s management and b are less affected by variation in accounting policies between different companies The ratio is generally applied to find out whether a company s stock is overpriced or underpriced with reference to its cash flows generation potential compared with its competitors However it is not commonly used for cross industry comparison as the average price to cash flow ratio varies from industry to industry In this case Bristol Myers P CF ratio of 15 1 is lower than the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry average of 15 8 which indicates that the stock is somewhat undervalued in this respect Broad Value OutlookIn aggregate Bristol Myers currently has a Value Score of B putting it into the top 40 of all stocks we cover from this look This makes Bristol Myers a solid choice for value investors and some of its other key metrics make this pretty clear too For example the P S ratio for Bristol Myers is 3 7 a level that is lower than the industry average of 4 Clearly BMY is a solid choice on the value front from multiple angles What About the Stock Overall Though Bristol Myers might be a good choice for value investors there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name In particular it is worth noting that the company has a Growth Score of B and a Momentum Score of F This gives BMY a Zacks VGM score or its overarching fundamental grade of B You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores Meanwhile the company s recent earnings estimates have been somewhat disappointing The current quarter has seen no upward revisions in the past sixty days compared to one downward revision while the full year estimate has seen two upward and two downward revisions in the same time period This has had a dismal impact on the consensus estimate as the current quarter consensus estimate has dropped by 5 8 in the past two months while the full year estimate has dipped by 4 6 You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price and Consensus However the stock with a solid earnings surprise history and long term EPS growth rate of 5 5 has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy which is why we are looking for outperformance from the company in the near term Bottom LineBristol Myers is an inspired choice for value investors as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front Although the stock has a Zacks Rank 2 its sluggish industry rank bottom 44 of more than 250 industries makes it hard to get too excited about this company overall Over the past two years the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry s performance has remained in line with the broader market as you can see below So value investors might want to wait for estimates and analyst sentiment to turn around in this name first but once that happens this stock could be a compelling pick Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019In addition to the stocks discussed above would you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year Who wouldn t Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity In 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 the portfolio scored well into double digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as 61 5 And from 2012 2017 while the market boomed 126 3 Zacks Top 10s reached an even more sensational 181 9 |
C | Global IPOs surge in Q3 led by buyout deals | Asia sees IPOs spike after seven quarters
191 5 bln of follow ons IPOs in pipeline globally
Investors lower risk aversion to spur IPOs
Megadeals to continue in Q4 and 2010
By Phil Wahba
NEW YORK Sept 25 Reuters The global market for initial
public offerings rebounded decisively in the third quarter on
the strength of large deals in Asia and a U S market that
emerged from its doldrums
Renewed confidence and strong stock markets led to more and
larger IPOs including the year s largest by China State
Construction Engineering Corp which raised 7 3 billion in
July
With 28 offerings worth 8 2 billion Asian IPO activity
nearly tripled over the preceding quarter after seven straight
quarters of decline according to Thomson Reuters data
In the United States 11 deals had priced in the third
quarter through Wednesday yielding 3 6 billion That
included the largest IPO in 18 months by Starwood Property
Trust Inc which raised 951 5 million in August
This past week was the busiest in nearly two years in the
United States with seven IPOs expected to have made their
debut by Friday
We view the third quarter of 2009 as a major inflection
point in the IPO market said Lisa Carnoy global head of
equity capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
The combination of more deals bigger deals and broader
range of sectors speaks volumes about what we will see next
quarter and into 2010 she said
Follow ons were also robust Globally secondary offerings
totaled 143 3 billion one third more than a year ago the
Thomson Reuters data shows
Volume will probably remain above historical averages for
some time bankers said
It s likely many will take advantage of the buoyant equity
market to pay down debt or put more cash away to grow
organically or acquire other companies said Mark Hantho
global head of equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank
The combined value of all equity offerings in the pipeline
stands at 194 5 billion 60 percent of it from follow ons
IPOs in the global pipeline are expected to raise 69 7
billion according to the Thomson Reuters data buoyed by a
surge of U S activity this summer when 33 companies filed
paperwork for prospective IPOs versus four in the first half
of the year
There has been enormous liquidity because money that was
on the sidelines is now being redeployed into equities said
Carnoy
PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS UNLOAD
Encouraged by a thaw in the IPO market in the second
quarter private equity firms eager to unload portfolio
companies launched several major deals this summer
Avago Technologies Ltd backed in part by private equity
firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Co raised 745 2 million in
its IPO while health record manager Emdeon Inc backed by
General Atlantic Partners and Hellman Friedman got 422 5
million
More are on the way Talecris Biotherapeutics Holdings
Corp controlled by private equity firm Cerberus Capital
Management LP is expected to price its 849 3 million IPO on
Wednesday the last day of the quarter
With the vast majority of 2009 s crop of U S IPOs still
trading above their offer price private equity firms are
likely to continue sponsoring IPOs for the next few quarters
KKR s Dollar General Corp filed in August to raise up to
750 million and could come to market by year end
BIG DEALS TO CONTINUE
The quarter s momentum looks set to carry into the last
three months of the year Banco Santander SA the Brazilian
unit of Spanish bank Santander plans an IPO worth as much as
8 6 billion that is set to list on the New York Stock Exchange
and the Sao Paulo stock market next month
Insurance risk specialist Verisk Analytics is set to launch
a 1 7 billion IPO the same day
Other large new IPOs in the pipeline that filed this summer
and could come to market by year end include a prospective
1 15 billion offering by hotel chain Hyatt Hotels and a 500
million planned deal by fruit products company Dole Food Co
The summer also saw a broadening of the industries
represented in the IPO market including the first recent
flotation by a pharmaceuticals company Cumberland
Pharmaceuticals Inc and the first by an e commerce company
Vitacost com since November 2007 in what could be a sign
investors are becoming more adventurous
People are moving down the risk spectrum said John
Chirico co head of capital markets origination for the
Americas at Citigroup Global Markets
Those deals and the success of lithium ion battery maker
A123 Systems Inc s IPO this week could whet investor appetite
for deals in riskier industries
But that doesn t mean the markets are frothy
I don t think the market is a euphoric state but is
performing very nicely and we do expect that to continue
Deutsche Bank s Hantho said
Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Ted Kerr |
C | Europe stocks inch higher as oil rebounds | FTSEurofirst 300 up 0 1 percent following sharp drop
Energy shares bounce back along with crude prices
J Baer sags on disappointing targets ING up on asset sale
For up to the minute market news click on
By Blaise Robinson
PARIS Sept 25 Reuters European stocks inched higher
around midday on Friday following the previous session s sharp
drop as energy shares rebounded along with crude prices
eclipsing weakness in the industrial sector
A pledge by the Group of 20 nations to keep emergency
programmes in place until the economic recovery is secured also
lifted investor sentiment hit on Thursday by gloomy U S
housing data
At 1128 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European
shares was up 0 1 percent at 988 00 points The index which
tumbled 1 9 percent to a two week closing low on Thursday is on
track to record a loss of 1 8 percent on the week
Overall earnings have beaten estimates during the last
earning season but not the revenue figures and this is a sword
of Damocles hanging over equities said Eric Turjeman head of
equities at Societe Generale Asset Management
Stocks are now back at more normal valuation levels and
investors are waiting for signs that profits are really back
before pushing stocks higher again
Banking stocks were mixed with HSBC up 1 5 percent and UBS
down 1 4 percent
Julius Baer fell 5 7 percent after giving disappointing
targets in a strategy update and saying it would not increase
dividends or buy back shares
ING rose 2 2 percent after saying it will sell its 51
percent stake in a wealth management joint venture to partner
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group for 1 1 billion euros
as the Dutch group slims down through asset sales
Shares in industrial engineering companies lost ground hit
by demand concerns Sulzer fell 2 1 percent Alstom dropped 1 5
percent and ABB lost 1 9 percent
Shares of oil majors trimmed recent losses climbing along
with oil prices which recovered from Thursday s drop to an
eight week low but gains were limited by high fuel inventories
as well as doubts about the strength of the global economic
recovery
PROFITS POISED FOR A REBOUND
BP rose 1 2 percent Royal Dutch Shell climbed 0 5 percent
and ENI added 1 3 percent
Around Europe UK s FTSE 100 index was up 0 5 percent
Germany s DAX index flat and France s CAC 40 up 0 1 percent
The FTSEurofirst 300 which has surged 53 percent since
reaching a floor in March is up 19 percent in 2009 and on track
to record its best quarterly performance in nearly a decade
although it is still down 40 percent from a multi year peak
reached in mid 2007
Stock valuations are now back at levels last seen in May
2006 with stocks in the FTSEurofirst 300 index currently
trading at 13 6 times expected earnings according to Thomson
Reuters data
But a number of analysts said this won t prevent stocks from
rising further as profits are poised for a rebound
After two years of falling earnings European 12 month
forward earnings appear to have troughed Citigroup analyst
Anna Esposito wrote in a note
The clearest signs of a recovery are from the
financials tech general retail and basic resources
On the macro front on Friday investors were preparing for
U S durable goods data due at 1230 GMT and U S new home
sales figures expected at 1400 GMT
Reporting by Blaise Robinson editing by John Stonestreet |
C | European shares hit 2 wk closing low for 2nd day | FTSEurofirst 300 hit two week closing low for second day
Firmer crude lifts oil producers but financials weak
U S durable goods data weak consumer sentiment up
For up to the minute market news click on
By Dominic Lau
LONDON Sept 25 Reuters European shares edged lower on
Friday to hit a more than two week closing low for a second day
led lower by weaker financials which outpaced gains in
pharmaceutical and energy stocks
The FTSEurofirst 300 of top European shares closed 0 4
percent lower at 983 91 points in a choppy session after
trading between 990 43 and 982 12 points
The index which tumbled 1 9 percent to a two week closing
low on Thursday was down 2 2 percent on the week
Banks which have rallied 166 percent since March were
among the top losers as G20 leaders met in Pittsburgh for talks
on possible tighter banking regulation
Credit Suisse UBS Lloyds Banking Group Commerzbank
Barclays and BNP Paribas were down between 0 4 and 3 4 percent
Julius Baer shed 5 6 percent after giving disappointing
targets in a strategy update and saying it would not increase
dividends or buy back shares
DnB NOR however soared 9 9 percent after Norway s biggest
banking group announced a 2 4 billion rights issue to
strengthen its capital position with traders saying it removed
some uncertainty
New orders for long lasting U S manufactured goods fell
unexpectedly in August dropping by their biggest margin in
seven months while sales of newly built U S single family
homes rose in August short of expectations
U S consumer sentiment however rose in late September to
the highest since January 2008
Leaders of the G20 pledged to keep emergency economic
supports running until a durable recovery was secured
The most compelling reason for buying equities is because
the authorities continue to operate unusual policy We are
moving in the equity world into valuations probably above the
long term average said Jim Reid head of European equity
strategy and global fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank
in London
ABOVE AVERAGE
If they continue to put every measure every stimulus into
place there is no reason why equities can t continue to trade
above their long term average especially if bond yields stay
very low
Shares in European industrial engineering companies also
lost ground hit by demand concerns Sulzer fell 3 7 percent
Alstom dropped 2 2 percent and ABB lost 2 6 percent
Around Europe UK s FTSE 100 index was up 0 1 percent
Germany s DAX index eased 0 4 percent and France s CAC 40 lost
0 5 percent
Volumes on the FTSEurofirst 300 were about 104 percent of
the 90 day daily average
Heavyweight oil gas firms lent some support to the
pan European index as crude prices rose above 66 a barrel on
heightened tension between the West and Iran over Tehran s
nuclear programme
BP BG Group Tullow Oil and Cairn Energy put on 0 5 to 3 2
percent
Drugmakers were in favour with Merck KGaA up 1 1 percent
after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to neutral from
underweight and GlaxoSmithKline up 1 8 percent
European healthcare regulators said its expert committee on
new drugs gave the go ahead for the first H1N1 swine flu
vaccines from GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis which added 0 4
percent
Stock valuations are back at levels last seen in May 2006
with stocks in the FTSEurofirst 300 index trading at 13 6 times
expected earnings according to Thomson Reuters data
The FTSEurofirst 300 which has surged 53 percent since
reaching a floor last March is up 18 3 percent in 2009
although it is still down 40 percent from a multi year peak
reached in mid 2007
Citigroup said in a report the stage was set for some
underperforming defensive stocks to rebound after the rally in
cyclicals
The rally over the last six months has anticipated the
earnings turn Cyclicals and financials have led Performance
then tends to broaden out into some of the defensives it said
The stage appears to be set for this broadening and a
return of earnings momentum as a predictor of performance
Additional reporting by Blaise Robinson Editing by David
Holmes |
C | WRAPUP 2 Failure of Bharti MTN talks pleases investors | Shares up after talks called off
Analysts say groups may try again
MTN CEO faces shareholders ire
MTN in mobile content venture with Indian company
Adds MTN content venture with Indian software firm
By Serena Chaudhry and Devidutta Tripathy
JOHANNESBURG NEW DELHI Oct 1 Reuters Bharti Airtel and
MTN Group s shares rallied on Thursday after the telecoms groups
failed to seal a 24 billion tie up and any future attempts are
likely to be viewed sceptically analysts said
Talks between India s Bharti and South Africa based MTN
collapsed for the second time in just over a year over South
Africa s reluctance to allow a flagship company to lose its
national character
Bharti on Wednesday held out the prospect of talks being
revived
There definitely appears an intent from the current
management to do a deal said Chris Wood fund manager at
Prudential Portfolio Managers who owns MTN shares
The deal which faced close scrutiny from regulators and
politicians could have led to a full blown merger
Shares in MTN jumped as much as 5 98 percent on the
Johannesburg bourse while Bharti shares gained as much as 11 58
percent in Mumbai the day after the talks collapsed
The rand fell over one percent on Wednesday and extended the
decline by a further 1 9 percent on Thursday to a near four week
low against the dollar The transaction would have brought major
capital inflows to South Africa
INVESTORS RELIEVED
MTN shareholders said the stock was worth more than Bharti s
offer and Bharti investors were relieved the company will not
face a big cash outflow
Even though the announcement leaves a small window open for
re engaging it lifts uncertainty and could trigger a relief
rally in the near term Citigroup analysts wrote about Bharti
However the risk that Bharti will explore other
acquisition options remains the analysts said
Analysts and bankers said Bharti s expansion plans were
unlikely to be halted by the MTN failure but India s largest
mobile operator may now need to focus on smaller deals
MTN could pursue other opportunities but may find
shareholders reluctant to support it Prudential s Wood said
It s not clear what management s incentive to do the
transaction was but it certainly didn t appear that it was
being done in the interests of all shareholders Wood said
MTN Chief Executive Officer Phuthuma Nhleko has now presided
over three failed deals in just over a year and shareholders may
demand some answers from him
Shareholders are going to be particularly grumpy He hasn t
exactly done himself any favours with this particular
transaction having dragged on for the better part of four months
in a period in which we ve seen a very strong equity rally and
MTN s share price for all intents and purposes has been
capped Wood said
MTN said on Thursday it had entered into a partnership with
Indian software company IMIMobile to provide mobile and online
content to 103 million users in the Middle East and Africa
The partnership will allow MTN to bring new mobile services
faster to the market and also boost Average Revenue per User
ARPU MTN said
Before MTN s rally on Thursday the company s shares had
only gained around four percent since the two groups announced
they were in talks compared with a 10 4 percent rise in the JSE
Securities Exchange s blue chip Top 40 index
Bharti stock had risen just 2 4 percent between the firms
announcing the revival of talks and Wednesday s close compared
with a 23 percent rise in the broader Indian market
On Thursday Bharti stock closed 4 percent higher at a
two week closing high of 435 35 rupees while MTN shares were
5 33 percent higher at 128 66 rand by 1355 GMT its highest
level in two weeks
Writing by Marius Bosch Editing by Simon Jessop and Elaine
Hardcastle |
C | UPDATE 1 Spanish joblessness jumps as services wilt | Joblessness rose 80 367 in September to 3 7 million people
Up 1 1 million from September 2008
80 percent of the month s job losses were in services
Adds analysts
By Jason Webb
MADRID Oct 2 Reuters Spanish jobless claims rose by
80 367 during the month of September to 3 7 million as the
storm of job destruction that has already decimated construction
and industry lashed the country s service industry
Four out of five jobs lost in the month were from the
services industry partly due to the end of summer contracts in
the tourism industry and a reduction in the scale of a public
works programme but also due to the knock on effect of massive
job losses that have already happened elsewhere in the economy
Unemployment has already risen very intensively in
construction and then it rose very intensively in industry Now
it s hitting services in a big way said Xavier Segura of Caixa
Catalunya
The scale of September s rise in the numbers claiming
unemployment benefits took some analysts by surprise
It s a lot higher than we had been expecting which was for
about 40 000 said Jose Luis Martinez of Citigroup
Spain only provides quarterly unemployment data with the
most recent figure from the second quarter being 17 9 percent
Segura expected this to rise close to a maximum of 20 percent
some time next year The economy is expected to begin to recover
sluggishly only in the second half of 2010
The European Union statistics office which uses a different
methodology said on Thursday that Spain s unemployment was 18 9
percent in August compared to the average for the 27 member EU
of 9 1 percent
Jobs are still being destroyed in Spain and that will
continue for the next few months said Jose Garcia Zarate of
4cast in London
The world financial crisis has claimed more jobs in Spain
than elsewhere because of the country s long dependence on low
productivity construction and services jobs during the
debt fuelled boom that came to a sudden end in 2007
This has led to particularly sharp reductions in retail
sales in Spain and to forecasts of a continued rise in
non performing loans for banks NPLs were equivalent to about
4 5 percent of total bank loans in June
Joblessness was almost 1 1 million higher than in September
2008 and has roughly doubled since the beginning of the crisis
despite a massive government public works programme that will
push the fiscal deficit close to 10 percent of gross domestic
product this year
Some of these government financed jobs are already beginning
to go as Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero
readies spending cuts for next year in a bid to retain the
confidence of debt markets
As dole queues lengthen government officials suspect the
black market economy has expanded posing problems for tax
collectors but offering safety net for unemployed workers who
might otherwise struggle to support themselves or turn to crime
Zapatero has resisted demands from business for labour laws
to be changed to make it cheaper to fire workers This has
pleased unions but angered companies who argue that job creation
is stymied by rigid rules
Additional reporting by Tracy Rucinski Damian Wroclavsky and
Robert Hetz editing by Stephen Nisbet |
C | UPDATE 1 Euro zone retail sales dip in Aug food rebounds | Figure still weak joblessness to curb consumer demand
Car scrap schemes divert consumer spending
Sales rebound in Spain weak in Germany
Updates with quotes details
By Marcin Grajewski
BRUSSELS Oct 5 Reuters Euro zone retail sales fell less
than expected month on month in August as a rebound in the food
sector lent support data showed in a signal consumer demand
may be benefitting slightly from a nascent economic recovery
Retail sales in the 16 country area fell 0 2 percent against
July and dropped 2 6 percent year on year European Union
statistics office Eurostat said on Monday
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0 5 percent fall
versus the previous month while the annual decrease came in
line with their forecasts
In general these figures confirm moderate signs of
stabilisation in consumer spending said Giada Giani analyst
at Citigroup
But the figure was too weak to suggest any big role for
consumers in an expected economic revival in the third quarter
Growth would instead depend mostly on government spending as
tens of billions of euros are being pumped into the economy
The presumed recovery in GDP gross domestic product in
the third quarter is unlikely to be consumer led said Martin
van Vliet analyst at ING
The data comes as the European Central Bank is expected to
keep its main interest rate at 1 0 percent this week amid signs
the worst European recession since World War Two may be ending
Analysts expect the euro zone s economy to have started
growing in the third quarter of 2009 after it contracted by 0 1
percent quarter on quarter in the April June period
But expansion is likely to be limited due to growing
unemployment which hit a 10 year high in August at 9 6 percent
Concerns about income and job prospects will probably
continue to act as a restraining force on high street spending
However the recent upturn in consumer confidence would seem to
point to some modest improvement in retail sales over the coming
months van Vliet said
In Spain among the hardest hit by the crisis in the euro
zone monthly sales rebounded by 1 4 percent In Germany the
euro zone s biggest economy sales fell 1 5 percent
END OF CAR SCRAPPING SCHEMES
Economists say retail sales figures have been affected by
government cash incentives to change old cars for new ones
Those payouts may have diverted household funds from
smaller ticket items negatively affecting retail sales which
do not include car purchases
The car scrapping programmes are now coming to an end with
Germany having wrapped up its own on Sept 2
It is likely that the retail sales data modestly understate
the current strength of consumer spending in the euro zone as
they do not include car sales which have been lifted
substantially in a number of countries by cash for clunkers
schemes said Howard Archer analyst at IHS Global Insight
Eurostat said sales of food drinks and tobacco increased by
0 5 percent against July after falling for three months in a
row In annual terms they dropped 1 3 percent
Non food products fell 0 6 percent and 3 2 percent
respectively
In the whole 27 country European Union retail sales fell
0 3 percent on the month and 1 8 percent year on year
Editing by Dale Hudson |
C | European Markets Shrug Off S P Downgrades | EquitiesOver the weekend S P downgraded the debt ratings of 9 out of 17 euro zone countries sending Asian markets lower on Monday The Nikkei sank 1 4 to 8378 as the Euro Yen EURJPY fell to 97 22 its lowest level in more than a decade hurting exporters In Korea the Kospi shed 9 and Australia s ASX 200 dropped 1 2 The Hang Seng slid 1 to 19012 while the Shanghai Composite tumbled 1 7 largely erasing last week s gains Shanghai Composite Slides 1 7 In contrast European markets climbed despite the wave of credit downgrades The DAX rallied 1 3 the CAC40 climbed 9 and the FTSE rose 4 Late Monday S P downgraded the European Stability Fund s credit rating by one notch which may make it harder for the fund to obtain cheap funding CurrenciesGlobal currencies traded in relatively narrow ranges thanks to the US holiday The Canadian Dollar gained 5 to 1 1081 ahead of the Bank of Canada s rate decision on Tuesday The Swiss Franc slipped 3 to 1 0478 the Australian Dollar eased 2 to 1 0306 and the Euro edged down 1 to 1 2664 The Yen rose 2 to 76 78 Economic OutlookTuesday s sole economic report is the Empire State manufacturing survey Analysts are expecting the index to rise to 10 8 from last month s 9 5 reading Chinese GDP Better than Expected Lifting MarketsEquitiesGDP data from China showed the economy grew at 8 9 in the last quarter better than forecast The news sent the Shanghai Composite soaring 4 2 despite the fact that the figure was lower than last quarter s 9 1 growth Across the region stocks rallied particularly in neighboring Hong Kong where the Hang Seng jumped 3 2 to 19638 The Nikkei advanced 1 1 to 8466 the Kospi climbed 1 8 and the ASX rose by 1 7 The upbeat sentiment continued in Europe as the DAX rallied 1 8 the CAC40 gained 1 4 and the FTSE rose 7 Automakers posted a 2 8 gain as fear of a Chinese hard landing abated US stocks posted smaller gains The Dow tacked on 60 points to 12482 the Nasdaq advanced 6 and the S P 500 gained 4 Citigroup shares tumbled 8 2 after reporting weaker than expected earnings while Wells Fargo inched up 7 after beating estimates Financials traded mostly lower as the weight of Citigroup s disappointment hit the sector CurrenciesA successful bond auction in Spain helped boost European currencies The Swiss Franc rallied 8 to 1 0533 the Euro gained 6 to 1 2734 and the Pound inched up 1 to 1 5332 The Canadian Dollar edged up 3 after the Bank of Canada kept rates steady at 1 In the Pacific region the Australian Dollar climbed 7 to 1 0379 and the Yen closed down fractionally at 76 82 Economic OutlookThe Empire State manufacturing index blew past expectations rising to 13 5 from last month s 9 5 reading its highest level since April Housing Market Sentiment Soars to 4 5 Year HighEquitiesAsian markets traded mixed on Wednesday as doubts over Greece s debt burden clashed with Tuesday s cheer The Nikkei climbed 1 to 8551 lifted by a sharp 6 6 rally in Elpida Memory on news the company is seeking a deal with Micron Technology The Hang Seng rose 3 to 19687 while the Kospi and ASX 200 settled little changed The Shanghai Composite fell 1 4 to 2264 following Tuesday s powerful 4 2 rally the largest single day gain in more than 2 years European shares traded mixed as well The FTSE rose 2 the DAX gained 3 while the CAC40 eased 2 Societe Generale shares surged 6 as Greece resumed debt negotiations on hopes the bank s losses due to exposure to Greek debt will be less than feared Upbeat data and rumors of a possible Greek debt deal later in the week sent US stocks higher The Nasdaq led the advance climbing 1 5 The Dow rose 97 points to 12576 and the S P 500 gained 1 1 to 1308 Nasdaq Rallies 1 5 Goldman Sachs surged 6 8 after beating earnings estimates while Bank of NY Mellon sank 4 6 after reporting weak earnings CurrenciesThe Euro surged 1 6 as hopes for a solution to Greek s debt woes lifted the single currency The Australian Dollar rallied 1 2 to 1 0430 the Swiss Franc advance 1 to 1 0654 and the Pound climbed 8 to 1 5441 The Canadian Dollar posted a smaller 4 gain to 1 0112 and the Yen inched up fractionally to 76 99 Economic OutlookThe NAHB housing market index jumped to 25 from last month s reading of 21 blowing past analyst estimates of a rise to 22 Industrial production rose by 4 slightly less than forecast and PPI slipped 1 following last month s 3 gain Stocks Gain on IMF Hopes Kodak Files for BankruptcyEquitiesAsian markets rallied to their highest level in more than a month following news the IMF is hoping to raise 600 billion in funding to help tackle the euro debt crisis The Nikkei gained 1 to 8640 the Kospi jumped 1 2 and the Hang Seng rallied 1 3 China s Shanghai Composite climbed 1 3 nearly erasing Wednesday s 1 4 drop Australia s ASX 200 lagged the region easing 1 as employment data showed an unexpected drop of 30K jobs in December France s CAC40 soared 2 to 3329 as European indexes traded higher following strong bond auctions in Spain and France The DAX gained 1 and the FTSE rose 7 as European banks rocketed up 7 4 on hopes the IMF will help address the ongoing debt crisis US stocks posted moderate gains thanks to positive economic and earnings news The Dow rose 45 points to 12624 the Nasdaq rallied 7 and the S P 500 gained 5 to 1314 50 CurrenciesEuropean currencies advanced as renewed hopes for a debt solution lifted the region The Euro and Swiss Franc gained 8 and the Pound rose 4 to 1 5484 The Yen fell 4 to 77 12 while the Australian Dollar closed down 1 to 1 0412 Economic OutlookWeekly unemployment claims dropped to 352K vastly exceeding analyst expectations of 387K CPI was flat while core CPI rose 1 in line with forecasts On a weaker note housing starts fell to 660K 30K short of forecasts Asia Rallies Western Markets end MixedEquitiesAsian markets advanced on Friday shrugging off a weak PMI report from China The Nikkei rallied 1 5 to 8766 and the Kospi surged 1 8 both settling at their highest close in months The Shanghai Composite climbed 1 to 2319 and the Hang Seng gained 8 to 20110 reaching a 3 5 month high as it crossed back above the 20000 mark Australia s ASX 200 lagged slightly behind rising 6 In Europe stocks closed slightly lower but closed higher for the week The FTSE DAX and CAC40 all eased 2 US stocks ended mixed as investors reacted to a heavy dose of earnings news The Dow rallied 97 points to 12720 the S P 500 gained 1 while the Nasdaq closed down fractionally The VIX tumbled 8 to 18 28 Dow Rallies 97 Points on Strong Earnings NewsGoogle shares tumbled 8 4 to 586 after falling short of analyst estimates The company had beaten estimates on revenue for 8 straight quarters CurrenciesThe Pound advanced 6 to 1 5574 thanks to upbeat retails sales data which showed a gain of 6 after last month s 5 decline The Australian Dollar rallied 7 to 1 0494 The Euro slipped 3 to 1 2935 settling in the middle of its daily range while the Yen ticked up 1 to 77 03 Economic OutlookExisting home sales rose by 5 to an annualized rate of 4 61M up from last month s 4 39M reading but fell slightly short of analyst forecasts |
JPM | U S fines Wells Fargo JPMorgan over illegal mortgage kickbacks | By Sarah N Lynch WASHINGTON Reuters U S and state regulators ordered Wells Fargo N WFC and JPMorgan Chase N JPM to collectively pay 35 7 million on Thursday to settle charges that they participated in an illegal marketing kickback scheme with a now defunct title company The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Maryland Attorney General s Office ordered Wells Fargo to pay a 24 million penalty plus another 10 8 million in redress to consumers JP Morgan will pay a 600 000 penalty plus another 300 000 in redress the CFPB said The CFPB said the former title company Genuine Title would give the banks loan officers cash marketing materials and other consumer information in exchange for business referrals In addition to charging the two banks the CFPB also announced it was charging a former Wells Fargo employee Todd Cohen and his wife Elaine Oliphant Cohen for their involvement in the alleged scheme Cohen and his wife are also settling and paying a 30 000 penalty These banks allowed their loan officers to focus on their own illegal financial gain rather than on treating consumers fairly Our action today to address these practices should serve as a warning for all those in the mortgage market CFPB Director Richard Cordray said in a statement on Thursday A Wells Fargo spokesman said the bank had taken strong corrective action as a result of the issue It had terminated involved staff and said it would improve the monitoring of its processes and its team members JPMorgan said that these former employees clearly violated our policies procedures and training Attorneys for Cohen and Oliphant Cohen could not be immediately reached
The CFPB said that Genuine Title had been based in Maryland but went out of business in April 2014 |
JPM | JPMorgan s Dimon got no hike in 2014 was paid cash bonus | Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co s N JPM Jamie Dimon s compensation in 2014 stayed unchanged at 20 million but the chief executive officer got a cash bonus something he was not awarded in 2013 Dimon s compensation in 2014 comprised a base salary of 1 5 million 11 1 million in restricted stock and a 7 4 million cash incentive bonus the company said in a regulatory filing His package in 2013 was composed of a base salary of 1 5 million and 18 5 million in restricted stock units JPMorgan is the biggest U S bank with 2 6 trillion in assets Dimon 58 is the most outspoken of big bank CEOs and has recently bristled at public criticism that JPMorgan is too big and complex to manage safely and efficiently JPMorgan did not explain its rationale for the compensation decisions The board is expected to provide an explanation in a proxy statement to be filed ahead of the company s annual meeting in May Two year ago Dimon s pay was cut in half to 11 5 million for 2012 which was the year JPMorgan traders handling company accounts lost 6 25 billion in the so called London Whale derivatives transactions Previously Dimon had received 23 million for each of 2011 and 2010 Dimon was treated for throat cancer in the latter half of 2014 JPMorgan said on Thursday that the base salaries also remained unchanged at 750 000 for other operating committee members except Daniel Pinto the London based chief of corporate and investment banking Chief Financial Officer Marianne Lake and asset management chief Mary Erdoes got an increase in total compensation while compensation was kept unchanged for other operating committee members JP Morgan Chase Dimon arrives at the White House in Washington alt Reuters Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase Dimon arrives at the White House in Washington rel external image
The bonuses for Dimon and all operating committee members except Pinto was composed of 60 percent restricted stock and 40 percent cash |
BMY | Strength Seen In AstraZeneca AZN Stock Soars 9 3 | AstraZeneca PLC NYSE AZN was a big mover last session as the company saw its shares rise more than 9 on the day The move came on solid volume too with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session This breaks the recent trend of the company as the stock is now trading above the volatile price range of 35 49 to 37 20 in the past one month time frame The move came after the company reported better than expected fourth quarter 2018 results The company has seen two negative estimate revisions in the past few weeks while its Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter has also moved lower over the past few weeks suggesting there may be trouble down the road So make sure to keep an eye on this stock going forward to see if this recent move higher can last AstraZeneca currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy while its is positive AstraZeneca PLC Price Investors interested in the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry may consider Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY which has a Zacks Rank 2 You can see Is AZN going up Or down Predict to see what others think Up or DownZacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019In addition to the stocks discussed above wouldn t you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year From more than 4 000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank these 10 were picked by a process that consistently beats the market Even during 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 our Top 10s were up well into double digits And during bullish 2012 2017 they soared far above the market s 126 3 reaching 181 9 This year the portfolio features a player that thrives on volatility an AI comer and a dynamic tech company that helps doctors deliver better patient outcomes at lower costs |
BMY | Prothena s PRTA Q4 Earnings Beat Revenues Miss Estimates | Prothena Corporation NASDAQ PRTA reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of 2018 The company reported a loss of 56 cents per share narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 96 cents and the year ago loss of 1 24
Quarterly revenues came in at 0 19 million missing the Zacks Consensus of 0 28 million However revenues were down from 0 22 million in the year ago quarter Revenues mainly came from the company s collaboration with Roche Holdings OTC RHHBY
The company s shares have lost 12 1 in the past six months compared with the decline of 11 8
Quarter in Detail
R D expenses were 16 5 million down 50 7 year over year primarily due to lower product manufacturing expenses reduced clinical trial costs and decreased personnel and consulting costs
General and administrative G A expenses came in at 8 million down from 14 million in the year ago quarter
As of Dec 31 2018 Prothena had 427 6 million in cash cash equivalents and restricted cash
Pipeline Updates
Prothena is evaluating prasinezumab PRX002 RG7935 in collaboration with Roche for the treatment of Parkinson s disease A phase II study PASADENA which is being conducted by Roche among patients suffering from Parkinson s disease is ongoing and data from the study is expected in 2020
Also Prothena initiated a phase I study on PRX004 in patients with hereditary ATTR amyloidosis in the second quarter of 2018 The study continues to enroll patients Preliminary data from lower dose cohorts including safety tolerability and pharmacodynamics are expected in the fourth quarter of 2019
Prothena has a global neuroscience research development collaboration with Celgene Corp NASDAQ CELG to develop new therapies for a broad range of neurodegenerative diseases The collaboration is focused on three targets implicated in the pathogenesis of several neurodegenerative diseases inducing tau TDP 43 and a third that is undisclosed
Per the terms Prothena received a 100 million upfront payment and a 50 million equity investment from Celgene The company is eligible to receive future potential exercise and milestone payments for each licensed program
Prothena is also eligible to receive additional royalties on net sales of any resulting marketed products The preclinical tau program is expected to initiate cell line development of a lead candidate in 2019 In addition the preclinical A Amyloid beta program is also likely to initiate cell line development of a lead candidate in 2019 and report preclinical data in the fourth quarter of 2019
Prothena entered into a multi target license and option agreement with Bioasis Technologies Inc Per the terms Prothena made an upfront payment of 1 million to Bioasis Prothena is currently exploring the application of Bioasis xB3 platform technology to increase the delivery of therapeutics across the blood brain barrier BBB for neuroscience disorders Moreover the company has the option to exercise exclusive worldwide rights to additional therapeutic products incorporating Bioasis s BBB technology for neuroscience targets
2018 Results
Revenues came in at 0 9 million missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 1 million Loss per share of 3 93 was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 4 38
Our Take
The narrower than expected loss in the fourth quarter was encouraging We expect investors focus to remain on pipeline updates as the company has no approved product in its portfolio yet
Prothena has discontinued the development of its lead pipeline candidate NEOD001 The decision came as a major blow to the investors as the company has a very limited number of candidates in its pipeline and NEOD001 was a lead one Hence investors will now focus on the ongoing phase II study on prasinezumab though results from the mid stage study on this candidate is not expected before 2020
Zacks Rank Stock to Consider
Prothena currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold
A better ranked stock in the healthcare sector is Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY which sports a Rank 2 Buy You can see
Bristol Myers earnings per share estimates have increased from 4 07 to 4 16 for 2019 in the past 60 days The company delivered a positive earnings surprise in all the trailing four quarters with average of 14 26
Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above wouldn t you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year
From more than 4 000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank these 10 were picked by a process that consistently beats the market Even during 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 our Top 10s were up well into double digits And during bullish 2012 2017 they soared far above the market s 126 3 reaching 181 9
This year the portfolio features a player that thrives on volatility an AI comer and a dynamic tech company that helps doctors deliver better patient outcomes at lower costs |
BMY | Novo Nordisk Gets FDA Nod For Haemophilia Drug Esperoct | Novo Nordisk CO NOVOb A S NYSE NVO announced that the FDA has approved its biologics license application BLA for Esperoct turoctocog alfa pegol N8 GP regarding the treatment of haemophilia A in adult patients and children The drug is approved for the routine prophylactic to reduce the frequency of bleeding episodes on demand treatment and control of bleeding episodes plus perioperative management of bleeding in the given patient population Per the company due to third party intellectual property IP agreements it will not be able to launch the drug before 2020 in the United States Last February Novo Nordisk submitted the BLA for Esperoct to the FDA regarding treatment of people with haemophilia A and filed a marketing authorization application to the European Medicines Agency for the same That is also under review in Japan The nod was based on data from the largest pre registration clinical program conducted in haemophilia A including 270 previously treated people PTPs afflicted with the disease having more than five years of clinical exposure Esperoct was effective in treating severe haemophilia A through a simple fixed dosing regimen of one injection every four days in adults and adolescents or every 3 4 days twice weekly in children The drug was also found to be efficacious in controlling bleeding episodes and perioperative management with no acute safety concerns Shares of Novo Nordisk have lost 2 4 in the past year versus the increase of 7 8 We would like to remind investors that in May 2017 Novo Nordisk received an FDA approval for its BLA related to Rebinyn N9 GP Coagulation Factor IX Recombinant GlycoPEGylated for the treatment of adults and children with hemophilia B Rebinyn is the brand name for nonacog beta pegol N9 GP in the United States Meanwhile last August the FDA approved Bayer s OTC BAYRY Jivi BAY94 9027 for the routine prophylactic treatment of hemophilia A in previously treated adults and adolescents aged 12 years or above in the United States The drug has also secured a nod for on demand treatment and perioperative management of bleeding in the same patient population Jivi is a long acting PEGylated recombinant human Factor VIII rFVIII replacement therapy The initial prophylactic regimen for Jivi is recommended twice weekly with the scope of dosing every five days and further individually adjusting to less or more frequent dosing based on bleeding episodes Zacks Rank Stocks to ConsiderNovo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Better ranked stocks in the large cap pharma sector include Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY and GlaxoSmithKline plc NYSE GSK both carrying a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see Bristol Myers earnings estimates have been revised 2 2 upward for 2019 over the past 60 days The stock has surged 37 2 so far this year GlaxoSmithKline s earnings estimates have moved 3 2 north for 2019 over the past 90 days The stock has gained 11 in a year Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019In addition to the stocks discussed above would you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year Who wouldn t Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity In 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 the portfolio scored well into double digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as 61 5 And from 2012 2017 while the market boomed 126 3 Zacks Top 10s reached an even more sensational 181 9 |
BMY | Why Is Bristol Myers BMY Up 4 Since Last Earnings Report | A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Shares have added about 4 in that time frame underperforming the S P 500
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release or is Bristol Myers due for a pullback Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late let s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers
Bristol Myers Tops Q4 Earnings Withdraws Opdivo sBLABristol Myers fourth quarter 2018 earnings of 94 cents per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents and the year ago quarter earnings of 68 cents Total revenues of 5 97 billion marginally lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5 98 billion but increased 10 from 5 45 billion recorded in the year ago period Continued strong sales of Opdivo and Eliquis contributed to the top line in the reported quarter offsetting a decline in sales of virology and hepatitis franchises Revenues for full year 2018 were 22 6 billion up 9 from the year ago period Earnings per share rose 32 to 3 98 In January the company announced an agreement to acquire another leading biotech player Celgene NASDAQ CELG for a whopping 74 billion However the company announced the voluntary withdrawal of label expansion application for Opdivo in first line ling cancer Quarterly DetailsRevenues were up 12 year over year when adjusted for foreign exchange impact Revenues increased 16 to 3 3 billion in the United States and 3 outside the country Ex U S revenues were up 7 when adjusted for foreign exchange impact Opdivo which is approved for multiple cancer indications continued its impressive performance with sales up 33 year over year to 1 8 billion and became the top revenue generator for the company Cardiovascular drug Eliquis also witnessed strong growth Sales of the drug rose 25 to 1 71 billion Sales of Opdivo and Eliquis rose 43 and 27 respectively in the United States Leukemia drug Sprycel raked in sales of 536 million up 2 year over year U S sales of the drug remained almost flat at 300 million Sales of rheumatoid arthritis drug Orencia were up 10 in fourth quarter 2018 to 731 million Melanoma drug Yervoy contributed 384 million to the top line during the reported quarter up 43 U S sales of the drug were up 51 to 273 million Multiple myeloma drug Empliciti recorded sales of 69 million up 10 year over year However the performance of key drugs in the Virology unit continues to disappoint Sales of Baraclude declined 29 to 165 million The Sustiva and Reyataz franchises deteriorated 69 and 31 year over year to 54 million and 99 million respectively Sales at the Hepatitis C franchise fell 93 Adjusted research and development R D expenses in the quarter were down 3 8 to 1 36 billion Adjusted marketing selling and administrative expenses increased 1 5 to 1 34 billion Gross margin was 71 7 in the quarter compared with 69 2 in the year ago quarter The year ago period results included an inventory charge Regulatory UpdateIn the press release the company announced the voluntary withdrawal of the supplemental Biologics License Application sBLA seeking approval of Opdivo Yervoy as a treatment for first line non small cell lung cancer with tumor mutational burden 10 mutations megabase following discussions with the FDA In October the FDA had extended the action date by three months for the sBLA to May 2019 upon submission of updated overall survival OS data by the company Bristol Myers stated that further evidence is required to understand the relationship of TMB and PD L1 and evaluate Opdivo s impact on improving OS in the patient population The analysis can be done upon receiving final data from part Ia of the Checkmate 227 study which is expected in the first half of 2019 However it will be available after May beyond the review period for the sBLA which resulted in the withdrawal In January Opdivo Yervoy received approval in Europe for treating patients with intermediate and poor risk advanced renal cell carcinoma in first line setting The FDA approved a label expansion of Sprycel in the same month to include pediatric patients one year of age or older with newly diagnosed Philadelphia chromosome positive Ph acute lymphoblastic leukemia ALL in combination with chemotherapy In December the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommended the approval of the drug in similar indication in Europe In November Empliciti s label was expanded to include third or later line multiple myeloma in adult patients The drug was approved in combination with pomalidomide and dexamethasone AcquisitionsIn January Bristol Myers announced that it will acquire Celgene in a cash and stock transaction The acquisition is expected to be 40 accretive to the bottom line on a standalone basis in the first full year and result in cost synergies of approximately 2 5 billion by 2022 The merged entity will generate more than 45 billion in cash flow over the first three full years Pipeline UpdateIn November the company announced the failure of the phase III CheckMate 451 study evaluating Opdivo in combination with Yervoy as a maintenance therapy in patients with extensive stage small cell lung cancer without disease progression after completion of first line platinum based chemotherapy 2019 Guidance ReiteratedBristol Myers reiterated its adjusted earnings and revenue expectations for 2019 The company projects earnings in the range of 4 10 to 4 20 per share The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 4 14 The company expects worldwide revenues to increase in mid single digits
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then
Fresh estimates followed an upward path over the past two months |
C | US STOCKS Wall St rises on recovery bets Fed in focus | Growth sensitive stocks lead advance as Fed meets
Financials industrials tech among standouts
Dow up 0 6 pct S P500 up 0 7 pct Nasdaq up 0 4 pct
Updates to late afternoon changes byline
By Ellis Mnyandu
NEW YORK Sept 22 Reuters U S stocks rose on Tuesday
as investors bet that the U S Federal Reserve will stick to
its accommodative policy to foster the economic recovery
boosting growth sensitive sectors such as financials
technology and industrials
Signs that the U S Treasury s 43 billion auction of new
two year notes met strong demand added to the positive tone
Investors have scrutinized auction results closely this
year especially after worries surfaced back in May about the
longevity of the United States prized AAA credit rating
People are putting some credibility in the fact that
maybe the recession is behind us and the worst is over said
Dan McMahon senior managing director of equity trading at
Raymond James Financial Inc in New York Things seems to be
trending in the right direction as far as the underlying
economic data
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 53 88 points or
0 55 percent to 9 832 74 The Standard Poor s 500 Index
climbed 7 28 points or 0 68 percent to 1 071 94 The Nasdaq
Composite Index gained 8 98 points or 0 42 percent to
2 147 02
The U S dollar s slide to a one year low against the euro
helped propel global commodity prices higher with U S
front month crude up 2 6 percent or 1 84 to settle at
71 55 a barrel while spot gold rose toward an 18 month high
approaching 1 020 an ounce
The Federal Reserve began a two day policy setting meeting
on Tuesday Its policy statement is due on Wednesday around
1815 GMT
And with no change expected in interest rates investors
probably will focus on on the bank s assessment of the
economic outlook particularly after Chairman Ben Bernanke
said last week that the recession was technically over
Among standouts Citigroup shares jumped 5 2 percent to
4 66 following news that Singapore wealth fund GIC has cut
its stake in the U S banking company in half
The S P 500 financial index was up 2 2 percent
Editing by Jan Paschal |
C | FOREX Dollar hovers near 1 year low ahead of Fed meeting | Dollar index near 1 year low as Fed statement awaited
New Zealand dollar surges on growth surprises
BoE minutes show no plans to increase asset buying
Trading cautious as G20 summit looms
Updates prices adds details changes byline dateline
previous LONDON
By Steven C Johnson
NEW YORK Sept 23 Reuters The dollar hovered near a
one year low against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday
as investors braced for the close of a Federal Reserve meeting
that s expected to keep U S interest rates at a record low
Dealers were on alert though for signs that the Fed may
curtail some of the programs that over the last year have
injected trillions of dollars into the troubled banking system
and that was keeping exchange rate moves somewhat subdued
News on Tuesday from other central banks suggested some
policymakers are at least thinking about exit strategies from
the ultra loose monetary policies that have reigned of late
Sterling gained as minutes from the last Bank of England
meeting showed officials did not press to increase asset
purchases which some traders feared they would while the
Norwegian crown rallied after the Norges Bank left interest
rates on hold but said it considered raising them
The Fed will acknowledge improvement in the economy but
should keep the outlook very much the same with interest rates
staying low for an extended period said Matthew Strauss
senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto
But there s always the risk they may say more about exit
strategies than the market is anticipating so I think people
want to wait until this is out of the way
Any such hints could squeeze investors with short dollar
positions and lead to a greenback rally Strauss said
The dollar index which measures the dollar s value
against a basket of six other major currencies was marginally
higher at 76 139 off an earlier low of 75 892 a level not
seen since last September
The euro pulled back a bit from a one year high above 1 48
and was flat at 1 4783 while sterling rose 0 4 percent to
1 6424 and the dollar rose 0 2 percent to 91 30 yen
The dollar fell 1 percent against the Norwegian crown to
5 7830 after the Norges Bank hinted at possible rate hikes down
the road
The New Zealand dollar hit a 13 month high after data
showed the economy unexpectedly exited recession in the second
quarter It was last up 0 8 percent at 0 7244
Traders were also keeping an eye on a Group of 20 leaders
summit which begins on Thursday and is expected to call for
economic stimulus plans to stay in place a move which could
give a boost to riskier assets
Ian Stannard currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London
said any retreat in commodity linked currencies in the run up
to the Fed and G20 would provide a buying opportunity
The dollar has shed more than 2 5 percent this month as
speculators sold the dollar on rising confidence in a global
recovery and expectations U S policymakers will keep benchmark
rates at rock bottom levels for some time
Speculation that the G20 would focus on rebalancing the
global economy a process that almost certainly calls for a
weaker dollar also hit the U S currency on Tuesday
But Citigroup strategists said the exchange rate adjustment
that requires the dollar to weaken and the currencies of high
surplus countries such as Japan and emerging markets such as
China to appreciate has been going on for some time
Instead they said G20 efforts are likely to focus on
diminishing the role of U S consumption in the global economy
reducing Asian savings and boosting European demand
In an interview on CNBC late Tuesday Canadian Prime
Minister Stephen Harper echoed that sentiment saying we
cannot hinge future growth simply on an overextended American
consumer
Additional reporting by Emelia Sithole Matarise and Tamawa
Desai in London Editing by James Dalgleish |
WMB | Two days after his acquittal Trump ousts two star impeachment witnesses | By Karen Freifeld Reuters President Donald Trump s administration on Friday ousted the two witnesses who provided the most damaging testimony during his impeachment investigation Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman and Ambassador Gordon Sondland Two days after Trump was acquitted by the Republican controlled Senate on charges of trying to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival Vindman the top Ukraine expert at the White House s National Security Council was escorted out of the building according to his lawyer Vindman was asked to leave for telling the truth said his lawyer David Pressman Hours later Sondland said he had been fired from his post as U S ambassador to the European Union The two men served as star witnesses during the Democratic controlled House of Representatives impeachment investigation last year Vindman s twin brother Yevgeny who worked as a lawyer at the NSC also was escorted out of the White House according to Michael Volkov who represented Vindman when he testified in the impeachment inquiry Trump has said he is still upset with Democrats and government officials involved in the impeachment investigation even after he was acquitted on Wednesday I m not happy with him You think I m supposed to be happy with him he said of Vindman on Friday An NSC spokesman declined to comment Vindman a decorated combat veteran testified in November that he couldn t believe what I was hearing when he listened in on a July 25 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskiy that became the focus of the inquiry Trump asked Zelenskiy to launch investigations into both Democratic rival Joe Biden and a discredited theory that Ukraine not Russia colluded with Democrats to harm Trump in the 2016 U S presidential election Sondland a wealthy Republican donor and Oregon hotelier who served as U S Ambassador to the European Union testified that he was following Trump s orders when he pushed Ukrainian officials to carry out investigations sought by the president I am grateful to President Trump for having given me the opportunity to serve he said The White House and State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Sondland s removal This is as clear a case of retribution as I ve seen during my 27 years in the Senate said Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein Biden s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination suffered a serious setback when he came in fourth place at the Democrats first state contest in Iowa this week Vindman s two year stint at the White House had been due to end in July An Army spokesperson said both brothers had been reassigned to the Army but declined to give further information out of respect for their privacy Another senior White House aide who testified over impeachment Jennifer Williams NYSE WMB left this week for a post at the U S military s Central Command according to Bloomberg News
Vindman downplayed concerns that he would suffer payback for speaking out when he testified to Congress I will be fine for telling the truth he said |
WMB | Switzerland Spain and Russia through to Fed Cup Finals | By Martyn Herman
LONDON Reuters Canadian teenager Leylah Annie Fernandez caused a huge shock in the Fed Cup qualifiers on Saturday when she beat Swiss world number five Belinda Bencic in Biel but it proved in vain as Switzerland progressed to April s finals
Spain Belgium Slovakia Germany Russia and Belarus also moved through to the inaugural 12 nation showdown in Budapest
A weakened Canada without U S Open champion Bianca Andreescu and Eugenie Bouchard for the singles trailed 2 0 after Friday s action but 17 year old Fernandez ranked 185th in the world beat Bencic 6 2 7 6 3
It was to be no fairytale comeback though as local favorite Jil Teichmann battled past another Canadian stand in doubles specialist Gaby Dabrowski 6 3 6 4 to wrap up a 3 1 win
Spain raced into the Fed Cup Finals as Carla Suarez Navarro claimed the winning point at the La Manga Club
The five times winners led 2 0 overnight and the 31 year old Suarez Navarro wasted little time finishing off Japan as she swept past Kurumi Nara 6 1 6 3 on the outdoor claycourt
Nara 137 on the WTA rankings was a late stand in as Japan s number one Naomi Osaka did not take to the court after her dismal defeat by Sara Sorribes Tormo on Friday
Four times winners Russia edged out Romania in Cluj as Anna Blinkova and Anna Kalinskaya won the deciding doubles rubber against Jaqueline Adina Cristian and Elena Gabriela Ruse
Belgium and Kazakhstan were locked at 1 1 overnight but Elise Mertens beat Yulia Putintseva 6 1 7 6 1 before Kirsten Flipkens secured the winning point by beating Zarina Diyas also in straight sets in Kortrijk
Germany were far too strong for Brazil in Florianopolis where Laura Siegemund recorded her second win of the weekend to give her side an unassailable 3 0 lead
Slovakia ended Britain s hopes in Bratislava where Heather Watson s win in the third rubber gave the visitors a lifeline but Anna Karolina Schmiedlova battled past Harriet Dart to finish the tie off in favor of the hosts
Belarus squeezed past the Netherlands 3 2 after Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Aryna Sabalenka beat Kiki Bertens and Demi Schuurs 4 6 6 3 7 6 8 in the final doubles thriller
The United States were 2 0 ahead against Latvia after wins on Friday for newly crowned featuring Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin and Serena Williams NYSE WMB
France Australia Czech Republic and hosts Hungary in the revamped finals taking place in April
The Fed Cup has followed the men s Davis Cup competition by adopting a multi nation finals in one city with 12 team set to assemble at the Laszlo Papp Budapest Sports Arena in April
They will be split into four groups of three with the winners of each group moving into the semi finals before a final to decide the 2020 champions
As well as trying to increase the exposure of the women s team event run by the International Tennis Federation the extra TV revenue means an 18 million prize fund of which 12 million goes to the players and the other 6 million to the federations |
WMB | NHL roundup Bruins down Coyotes for 6th straight win | Charlie Coyle scored twice and Patrice Bergeron had a goal and two assists as the Boston Bruins continued their dominance of the visiting Arizona Coyotes with a 4 2 win Saturday
Jake DeBrusk also scored and David Pastrnak had two assists as the Bruins extended their winning streak to six Tuukka Rask stopped 29 shots for Boston and improved to 12 0 6 at home
Phil Kessel and Jakob Chychrun scored for the Coyotes who have lost 10 of their last 12 games 2 7 3 Adin Hill a late replacement for originally scheduled starter Antti Raanta had 29 saves for Arizona
The Bruins have now won 16 consecutive games against the Coyotes dating back to October 2010 Boston completed a season sweep having beaten Arizona on the road in the second game of the season
Flyers 7 Capitals 2
Sean Couturier scored two goals Claude Giroux added one goal and two assists and Philadelphia scored three goals in under two minutes in the second period to defeat host Washington
Alex Ovechkin came into the game needing two goals for 700 in his career but the Washington captain did not score
The Flyers took control with the second period outburst They scored three times in 1 minute 45 seconds the first two coming only 14 seconds apart and took a 4 1 lead Goalie Brian Elliott pulled from the Flyers last game turned in a strong effort with 25 saves
Lightning 3 Islanders 1
Brayden Point broke a scoreless tie in the opening seconds of the second period for red hot Tampa Bay which never trailed against New York
Carter Verhaeghe and Steven Stamkos also scored for the Lightning who have won six straight and are 18 2 1 since the roll began Dec 23 Tampa Bay hasn t trailed in any of its last five victories
Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy made 17 saves as the Lightning earned a point in his 17th consecutive start extending his own team record
Stars 3 Blues 2 OT
Roope Hintz scored two goals including the overtime game winner as Dallas won at St Louis
Jamie Benn also scored and Anton Khudobin made 23 saves for the Stars who rallied from a 2 0 deficit
Colton Parayko scored twice for the Blues who are 2 6 1 in their last nine games Jordan Binnington stopped 31 of 34 shots for St Louis
Avalanche 2 Blue Jackets 1
Nazem Kadri and Nathan MacKinnon scored third period goals Philipp Grubauer had 31 saves and Colorado rallied to win at Columbus
Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar had an assist each to help the Avalanche improve to 3 1 on their five game road trip Colorado has won six of its last seven
Seth Jones had a goal and Elvis Merzlikins stopped 20 shots but fell short of his third straight shutout for Columbus The Blue Jackets had won three straight and nine of 10
Devils 3 Kings 0
MacKenzie Blackwood made 37 saves for his second consecutive shutout as New Jersey scored three times in the second period and beat Los Angeles in Newark N J
Blackwood followed up a 46 save performance by posting his third shutout of the season and fifth of his career He made 13 saves in the first period 10 in the second and 14 in the third
Nikita Gusev scored New Jersey s first goal Blake Coleman tallied on the power play and Kyle Palmieri capped the flurry in the second The Kings were shut out for the fifth time and dropped to 1 8 1 in their last 10 games and 4 14 2 in their last 20
Penguins 3 Panthers 2
Kris Letang scored a goal and added an assist to lead Pittsburgh over host Florida Panthers at Sunrise Fla
The Penguins also got goals from Sidney Crosby the game winner and Teddy Blueger
Tristan Jarry made 33 saves to earn his first win since Jan 31 as the Penguins avoided what would have been consecutive losses for the first time since Nov 29 30 Since then the Penguins are 20 6 1
Oilers 3 Predators 2
Leon Draisaitl scored two of Edmonton s three unanswered goals to beat visiting Nashville
Actually the Oilers really only scored twice Up 2 0 the Predators logged their second own goal in two weeks to help Edmonton get on the board in the second period with a rebound going off Kyle Turris skate and in
Draisaitl then took over in the third period scoring twice off feeds from Ryan Nugent Hopkins with the winner coming on a four on three power play
Jets 5 Senators 2
Patrik Laine recorded a power play hat trick and Kyle Connor recorded four points as Winnipeg earned a victory over visiting Ottawa
The Jets improved to 3 0 1 over their last four games as the club tries to fight its way back into the playoff race following a 1 7 0 slide to conclude January The loss extended Ottawa s winless drought to five games 0 3 2
Laine s eighth career hat trick gives him 23 goals for the season The notoriously streaky winger is on a hot streak scoring eight times over his last eight games Connor and Neal Pionk one goal two assists both matched personal bests for points in an NHL game
Canadiens 2 Maple Leafs 1 OT
Ilya Kovalchuk scored on a rebound at 1 43 of overtime and host Montreal beat Toronto
Canadiens goalie Carey Price stopped Tyson Barrie and the puck bounced to Nick Suzuki on a breakaway His shot was denied but Kovalchuk swooped in to send the puck into the net for the victory Montreal s Marco Scandella had tied the score late in the third period
Toronto s John Tavares scored in his 800th game and Alexander Kerfoot and Zach Hyman had assists Goalie Jack Campbell acquired from Los Angeles to back up injured Frederik Andersen neck made his second start in two nights after beating the Anaheim Ducks on Friday making 28 saves
Hurricanes 6 Golden Knights 5 SO
Andrei Svechnikov and Justin Williams NYSE WMB scored in the shootout as Carolina rallied for a wild victory in Las Vegas
Svechnikov started the second round of the shootout by blasting a shot past Marc Andre Fleury James Reimer who finished with 33 saves then stopped a Shea Theodore attempt and Williams followed with the game clincher over Fleury s glove
Sebastian Aho Teuvo Teravainen and Erik Haula each had a goal and an assist and Martin Necas and Haydn Fleury also scored for Carolina Jake Gardiner added three assists in a game that featured six third period goals Theodore had a goal and an assist and Cody Eakin Chandler Stephenson Max Pacioretty and Jon Merrill also scored goals for Vegas
Flames 6 Canucks 2
Dillon Dube had a goal and two assists as Calgary s fourth line provided most of the firepower to snap Vancouver s nine game home winning streak
Linemates Derek Ryan and Milan Lucic each had a goal and an assist Matthew Tkachuk Sean Monahan and Tobias Rieder also scored for the Flames who snapped a three game losing streak and won for just the second time in seven games 2 4 1 Goaltender David Rittich made 25 saves
Tanner Pearson and Adam Gaudette scored for the Pacific Division leading Canucks who fell two games shy of tying the best home winning streak in franchise history set Feb 3 March 19 2009 Goalie Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 31 shots but Vancouver dropped to 0 3 1 in its past four games
Field Level Media |
WMB | U S warns Israel against unilateral West Bank moves | By Dan Williams NYSE WMB JERUSALEM Reuters A U S envoy warned Israel on Sunday not to declare sovereignty over West Bank land without Washington s consent pushing back against calls for immediate action by ultra nationalists within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu s coalition U S President Donald Trump s Middle East peace plan unveiled on Jan 28 envisages Israel keeping key swathes of the occupied territory where Palestinians seek statehood But the question of timing has opened up a rare rift between the allies Netanyahu initially pledged a speedy application of Israeli law de facto annexation to Jewish settlement blocs and the Jordan Valley delighting his religious rightist base ahead of Israel s March 2 election where he hopes to win a fifth term But he was forced to backpedal after the White House made clear it wanted a U S Israeli mapping process likely to take weeks or more completed first The Palestinians for their part have rejected the Trump plan as a non starter With Defence Minister Naftali Bennett and other Israeli ultra nationalists urging an immediate cabinet vote on sovereignty in the West Bank the U S ambassador intervened Israel is subject to the completion of a mapping process by a joint Israeli American committee Any unilateral action in advance of the completion of the committee process endangers the Plan American recognition envoy David Friedman tweeted In a separate speech Friedman elaborated that his message was a little bit of patience to go through a process to do it right is not something which we think is too much to ask for POTENTIALLY ADVERSE With the news out that the Israeli cabinet was about to be pushed in a direction that was potentially adverse to our view of the process we just let people know where we stand he told the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs JCPA think tank It was not a threat In parallel Netanyahu invoked the White House position The U S recognition is the main thing and we don t want to endanger that the premier told his cabinet on Sunday At the JCPA Friedman said the mapping process was unlikely to be completed before March 2 But he held out the possibility of implementation even if the election does not produce a clear winner as was the case twice in the last year Asked if Washington first wanted a permanent Israeli government as opposed to a caretaker government of the kind Netanyahu has headed by default for months in place Friedman said We have not made that demand Most countries consider Israeli settlements on land captured in the 1967 Middle East war to be a violation of international law Trump has changed U S policy to withdraw such objections and the prospect of Israeli annexations have drawn widespread condemnation Palestinians say the settlements make a future state unviable Israel cites security needs as well as biblical and historical ties to the land on which they are built Any unilateral step is rejected whether it is taken before or after the election said Nabil Abu Rdainah a spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas Facts can t be created on the ground and they will never become a reality The only thing we can accept is the Palestinian map on the 1967 borders Abu Rdainah added
On Saturday Netanyahu told an election rally that the mapping process with the Americans was already under way We ve been waiting since 1967 and some people are making a big deal out of a few weeks he said alluding to rightist rivals |
WMB | Top 25 roundup Duke survives UNC on two buzzer beaters | Wendell Moore Jr s putback at the overtime buzzer of teammate Tre Jones air ball gave No 7 Duke a thrilling 98 96 victory against host North Carolina on Saturday night at the Smith Center in Chapel Hill N C It was the second buzzer beating shot that saved Duke 20 3 10 2 Atlantic Coast Conference in a game the Blue Devils trailed by seven with just over a minute left in regulation and by five with 20 seconds left in overtime Moore s basket came after Jones made the first free throw at the 6 6 second mark to tie the game at 96 After Jones missed the second the Blue Devils tracked down the rebound and a frenzied Jones missed a jumper But Moore who finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds caught the shot and scored in one motion as time ran out North Carolina 10 13 3 9 had wiped out a five point deficit in overtime and appeared at several times to be headed for an uplifting upset win over their bitter rivals Duke only managed to force overtime after Jones rebounded his own free throw miss and hit a buzzer beating jumper to tie No 1 Baylor 78 Oklahoma State 70 MaCio Teague poured in 24 points and four teammates also scored in double figures as the Bears hung on against the Cowboys in Waco Texas Baylor extended its winning streak to a team record 20 games It is the nation s second longest active streak behind undefeated San Diego State which ran its streak to 24 by defeating Air Force later Saturday Jared Butler scored 13 points for Baylor 21 2 10 0 Big 12 while Mark Vital added 13 points Freddie Gillespie hit for 12 points and took 11 rebounds and Davion Mitchell tallied 10 points No 2 Gonzaga 90 Saint Mary s 60 Freshman Drew Timme scored 20 points and the visiting Bulldogs sank 14 of their first 15 shots en route to routing Saint Mary s in Moraga Calif The victory was Gonzaga s 17th straight overall its 38th consecutive regular season West Coast Conference win and its 37 straight conference road win Gonzaga 25 1 11 0 shot 74 1 percent overall 20 of 27 in the first half and finished the game at 67 9 percent after going 36 of 53 from the field Killian Tillie who had missed the past two games with an ankle injury returned and scored 19 points and Filip Petrusev added 18 points and 11 rebounds Jordan Ford led the Gaels with 23 points and five boards Malik Fitts chipped in with 12 points No 3 Kansas 60 TCU 46 Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson each posted double doubles as the Jayhawks extended their winning streak to eight by stifling the Horned Frogs in their Big 12 matchup at Fort Worth Texas Dotson recorded a career high 11 assists to go with 18 points Azubuike managed 20 points including nine dunks and grabbed 15 rebounds The victory was the 700th career win for Bill Self who is in his 27th season as a head coach and his 17th at Kansas Self 57 became the second fastest to reach the 700 win plateau behind Bob Knight Desmond Bane led TCU 13 10 4 6 with 20 points and RJ Nembhard added 11 No 4 San Diego State 89 Air Force 74 KJ Feagin led four scorers in double figures with 21 points as the Aztecs held off a stiff test from the Falcons to remain undefeated in their Mountain West Conference matchup in Colorado Springs San Diego State 24 0 13 0 Mountain West shot 55 8 percent from the floor and 51 9 percent from behind the 3 point line 14 of 27 riding its balanced offense to preserve the only unblemished record remaining in college basketball Jordan Schakel joined Feagin in double figures with 18 points Malachi Flynn scored 17 points grabbed eight rebounds and dished seven assists for the Aztecs Air Force 9 15 3 9 kept pace with San Diego State for much of the night behind a game high 23 points from Chris Joyce No 5 Louisville 80 Virginia 73 Jordan Nwora scored 22 points and grabbed seven rebounds leading the host Cardinals past the Cavaliers in their Atlantic Coast Conference matchup Steven Enoch and Malik Williams NYSE WMB each added 13 points for the Cardinals 21 3 12 1 ACC who won their 10th straight game and improved to 14 1 at home this season Tomas Woldetensae scored a game high 27 points to lead the Cavaliers 15 7 7 5 who had a three game winning streak snapped Kihei Clark added 23 points and a game high seven assists No 6 Dayton 71 Saint Louis 65 Jalen Crutcher scored 17 points Obi Toppin added 17 points and three blocks and Ryan Mikesell finished with 11 points and eight rebounds to help the host Flyers remain unbeaten in the Atlantic 10 Conference with a win over the Billikens The Flyers 21 2 10 0 extended their winning streak to 12 by committing just six turnovers and holding off a late rally by the Billikens Saint Louis 17 7 6 5 was led by a dominating performance from Jordan Goodwin The junior guard scored a game high 22 points on 9 for 14 shooting and grabbed five rebounds Hasahn French finished 7 for 11 shooting for 15 points and eight boards No 8 Florida State 99 Miami 81 M J Walker and Pat Williams scored 14 points each to lead the Seminoles past the Hurricanes in their ACC matchup The Seminoles had balanced scoring including 13 points from Devin Vassell Wyatt Wilkes added 11 points all in the first half and point guard Trent Forrest added 10 points six rebounds and six assists Florida State 20 3 10 2 has won 13 of its past 14 games sweeping the home and home series against Miami Freshman Isaiah Wong scored a game high 23 points for the Hurricanes 11 12 3 10 Sam Waardenburg added 15 points and Harlond Beverly chipped in 13 No 12 Seton Hall 70 No 10 Villanova 64 The Pirates withstood a late game scoring drought to earn their first win on the Wildcats home floor in 26 years in a Big East clash in Philadelphia Seton Hall 18 5 10 1 held a 46 42 lead with 9 31 left when leading scorer Myles Powell who recorded a team high 19 points was whistled for his fourth personal foul The Pirates didn t score a field goal in the final 2 50 of the game Sandro Mamukelashvili helped the Pirates keep No 10 ranked Villanova at bay scoring 17 points and pulling down eight rebounds in 36 minutes No 11 Auburn 91 No 18 LSU 90 OT J Von McCormick NYSE MKC hit a runner with 0 1 seconds left in overtime as Auburn outlasted LSU in a Southeastern Conference showdown of teams with the Tigers mascot at Auburn Ala The last of McCormick s 23 points boosted Auburn 21 2 8 2 into a tie for first place in the conference with LSU 17 6 8 2 and Kentucky 18 5 8 2 which defeated Tennessee on Saturday McCormick also added nine rebounds and nine assists while teammate Samir Doughty scored a team high 26 points and reserve Devan Cambridge added 21 all coming on seven 3 pointers in 10 attempts Austin Wiley chipped in a 10 point 13 rebound double double for Auburn which went 18 of 44 from the 3 point line Skylar Mays scored a game high 30 points and added eight assists and seven assists for LSU leading five players in double figures Darius Days tallied 19 points before fouling out late in regulation for LSU Oklahoma 69 No 13 West Virginia 59 Kristian Doolittle scored 27 points and grabbed 12 rebounds to help the Sooners knock off the Mountaineers in their Big 12 matchup in Norman Okla Brady Manek added 11 points and eight rebounds for Oklahoma 15 8 overall 5 5 Big 12 Jermaine Haley led West Virginia 18 5 6 4 with 15 points while Oscar Tshiebwe added 12 points and nine rebounds Oregon State 63 No 14 Oregon 53 Ethan Thompson s 15 points 14 from Kylor Kelley and a clutch 3 pointer from Zach Reichle late in the game led the host Beavers to the upset of the Ducks in Corvallis Ore Reichle hit a 3 pointer for a 55 50 lead with 1 17 left to play and Oregon 18 6 7 4 in Pac 12 couldn t rally in losing its second straight game The Beavers 14 9 4 7 have won two of their last three games Payton Pritchard s 16 points and nine assists led the Ducks who lost a 10 point second half lead Chris Duarte added 11 points and Shakur Juiston finished with 10 rebounds No 15 Kentucky 77 Tennessee 64 Freshman guard Johnny Juzang gave the Wildcats a big lift off the bench as they snapped a four game losing streak to the Volunteers in Knoxville Tenn Juzang reached double figures for the first time with 13 points in hitting all four of his field goal attempts including three 3 pointers Immanuel Quickley scored 15 of his team high 18 points in the second half to lead Kentucky 18 5 8 2 Playing just his 11th game midyear enrollee Santiago Vescovi matched his season high with 18 points to lead Tennessee 13 10 5 5 John Fulkerson and Jordan Bowden added 16 each for the Volunteers Michigan 77 No 16 Michigan State 68 Senior point guard Zavier Simpson had 16 points and eight assists as the host Wolverines defeated the slumping Spartans who lost their third straight game Isaiah Livers who returned to action after recovering from a hip injury supplied 14 points for Michigan 14 9 5 7 Big Ten Eli Brooks had 11 points and nine rebounds and David DeJulius added 10 points off the bench Cassius Winston led the Spartans 16 8 8 5 with 20 points and six assists but he shot 5 for 18 from the field Xavier Tillman contributed 17 points and 12 rebounds and Aaron Henry chipped in 11 and nine respectively No 17 Iowa 96 Nebraska 72 Joe Wieskamp scored a career high 30 points and snared seven rebounds and Luka Garza registered his ninth straight 20 point effort with 22 points and eight boards to lead the Hawkeyes rout of the Cornhuskers in Iowa City Iowa Wieskamp made 10 of 15 from the field including 2 of 4 on 3 pointers and made all eight free throw attempts Garza also had an efficient performance connecting on 9 of 13 shots Iowa 17 7 8 5 shot 48 6 percent from the field including 11 of 28 from 3 point range The Cornhuskers 7 16 2 10 dropped their eighth straight game and fell to 0 8 on the road this season Reserve junior guard Jervay Green paced the Cornhuskers with 18 points and seven boards while Cam Mack chipped in 13 points No 21 Creighton 94 St John s 82 Marcus Zegarowski scored 23 points and Denzel Mahoney added 18 off the bench as the Bluejays bounced back from a midweek defeat to earn a Big East Conference victory over the Red Storm in Omaha Neb Ty Shon Alexander and Damien Jefferson had 16 points each for the Bluejays 18 6 7 4 Big East who lost at Providence on Wednesday to end their four game winning streak Marcellus Earlington scored a career high 25 points as the Red Storm 13 11 2 9 lost their third consecutive game St John s has defeated only DePaul in Big East play this season No 22 Penn State 83 Minnesota 77 Lamar Stevens scored a career high 33 points and grabbed seven rebounds as the Nittany Lions held off a late rally by the Golden Gophers to win in front of a sold out crowd in University Park Pa Izaiah Brockington poured in 10 points off the bench as the Nittany Lions 18 5 8 4 Big Ten improved to 12 1 at home and extended their winning streak to six games in front of the first home sellout since March 1 2011 Daniel Oturu had a monster game finishing with 32 points 16 rebounds and three blocks to pace the Golden Gophers 12 11 6 7 Marcus Carr finished with 20 points seven boards and five assists while shooting 3 for 6 on 3 pointers UCLA 65 No 23 Arizona 52 Chris Smith had 15 points and five rebounds to lead the Bruins to an upset of the cold shooting Wildcats in their Pac 12 matchup The Wildcats 16 7 6 4 Pac 12 shot only 25 4 percent from the field and 26 1 percent from 3 point range UCLA shot 51 1 percent from the field and 52 9 percent from beyond the arc Tyger Campbell added 12 points and five assists for the Bruins 13 11 6 5 Zeke Nnaji led Arizona with 14 points hitting just 2 of 8 attempts from the field He was 10 of 10 from the free throw line and added 10 rebounds Josh Green had 11 points on 3 of 11 shooting No 24 Colorado 81 Stanford 74 The Buffaloes rallied from a 16 point deficit early in the second half making all eight of their 3 point attempts after halftime for a victory over the Cardinal in a Pac 12 game at Boulder Colo The game was marred by a serious injury to Stanford s Oscar Da Silva with 8 42 left in the first half Da Silva lost his balance and banged his head on the court losing consciousness and cutting his head
Three Colorado 19 5 8 3 Pac 12 players scored in double figures in the second half to fuel the 23 point turnaround McKinley Wright had 15 of his 21 points D Shawn Schwartz had 15 of his 20 and Tyler Bey produced all 11 of his points Jaiden Delaire led the Cardinal 16 7 5 5 with 19 points and Tyrell Terry added 18 Field Level Media |
WMB | U S celebrate Olympic berth by thumping Canada 3 0 | Reuters Second half goals from Lynn Williams NYSE WMB Lindsey Horan and Megan Rapinoe gave the United States a 3 0 win over Canada in the final of the CONCACAF women s Olympic qualifying tournament in southern California on Sunday
Both nations had already booked their spots at the Tokyo Games with semi final victories the United States beating Mexico 4 0 and Canada edging Costa Rica 1 0 turning the final into a relaxed celebratory occasion in Carson
Williams broke the deadlock when she rifled home a fierce strike in the 60th minute Horan made it 2 0 with a well taken shot 11 minutes later before substitute Rapinoe wrapped up the scoring late on
The United States who won the women s World Cup in France last year lost to Sweden in the quarter finals of the 2016 Olympic tournament |
WMB | NBA roundup Bogdanovic buzzer beater lifts Jazz | Bojan Bogdanovic hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to lift the Utah Jazz to a 114 113 victory over the host Houston Rockets on Sunday
Bogdanovic had just two field goals and eight points for the night 13 below his season average But Utah executed the final inbound play to perfection with Bogdanovic making a 28 footer over James Harden and P J Tucker the final clutch 3 in a sequence of them down the stretch
Harden registered a triple double 28 points 10 rebounds 10 assists with his pass to Robert Covington whose 3 pointer with 28 seconds left gave the Rockets a 110 109 advantage
Jordan Clarkson paced the Jazz with 30 points off the bench while Mitchell added 24 and six assists Rudy Gobert had 12 points and 15 rebounds Russell Westbrook led the Rockets with 39 points After a hot start from the perimeter Houston shot just 10 of 33 from behind the arc over the final three periods
Boston Celtics 112 Oklahoma City Thunder 111
Kemba Walker scored 27 points to help Boston to a road win over Oklahoma City
Walker hit a pair of crucial 3 pointers late to seal the victory for Boston which won its seventh straight The Celtics have won 10 of their past 11 games
It was just Oklahoma City s second loss in 11 games
Philadelphia 76ers 118 Chicago Bulls 111
Furkan Korkmaz scored 31 points to carry host Philadelphia past Chicago
Joel Embiid added 28 points 12 rebounds five assists and four blocked shots for his 30th double double this season while Ben Simmons had 19 points 10 assists and 10 rebounds for his fifth triple double Tobias Harris contributed 14 points for the Sixers who improved to 24 2 at home
Zach LaVine led the Bulls with 32 points while Luke Kornet added a career high 25 Cristiano Felicio had 13 for the Bulls who dropped their fifth in a row Thaddeus Young also had 10 points and 10 rebounds
Memphis Grizzlies 106 Washington Wizards 99
Ja Morant recorded his first career triple double with 27 points 10 assists and 10 rebounds as visiting Memphis rallied late to defeat Washington in the nation s capital
Kyle Anderson added 16 for Memphis while Jonas Valanciunas had eight points and 18 rebounds Jaren Jackson Jr posted a double double with 14 points and 11 rebounds with Tyus Jones adding 13 points off the bench for Memphis
Bradley Beal led Washington with 26 points Beal has been a force throughout the season but especially in recent games since being snubbed for the Eastern Conference All Star Game Mo Wagner scored 19 off the bench for the Wizards with Davis Bertans adding 15 and Hachimura 12
Atlanta Hawks 140 New York Knicks 135
Trae Young scored 11 of his 48 points in the second overtime as Atlanta held on to defeat visiting New York
John Collins added 32 points and 16 rebounds for the Hawks DeAndre Hunter added 19 points including a crucial 3 pointer in the second overtime
New York saw its four game winning streak end despite getting 35 points and 18 rebounds from Julius Randle Reggie Bullock added 21 points and Mitchell Robinson had 15 points and 11 rebounds
Los Angeles Clippers 133 Cleveland Cavaliers 92
Lou Williams NYSE WMB scored 25 points and Paul George 22 as Los Angeles rebounded from a demoralizing defeat one night earlier for an easy road victory over Cleveland
Marcus Morris Sr had 10 points in his Clippers debut as Los Angeles distanced itself from a surprising 27 point defeat against Minnesota on Saturday The Clippers won without Kawhi Leonard who received a day of rest on the second night of a back to back scenario
Andre Drummond scored 19 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in his Cavaliers debut while Kevin Porter Jr added 17 points for Cleveland The Cavaliers saw their losing streak extend to six games while also falling for the 13th time in their past 14 contests
Portland Trail Blazers 115 Miami Heat 109
Damian Lillard recorded 33 points and eight assists to lead Portland past visiting Miami
Gary Trent Jr contributed 22 points and four steals off the bench and Trevor Ariza scored 19 of his 21 points in the first half as the Trail Blazers won for the seventh time in the past 10 games Carmelo Anthony scored 15 points CJ McCollum added 13 and Hassan Whiteside had 11 points 17 rebounds and four blocked shots
Goran Dragic had 27 points and seven assists off the bench for the Heat who lost a season worst third straight game Duncan Robinson scored 19 points Jae Crowder had 18 points and 11 rebounds in his team debut Bam Adebayo added 13 points 12 rebounds and seven assists and Derrick Jones Jr scored 11 points
Field Level Media |
WMB | High Frequency Firm Allston Cuts Employees Amid Low Volatility | Bloomberg High frequency trading firm Allston Trading pared its workforce late last week as it struggles to make money in some parts of its business
We made the difficult but necessary decision to reduce staff working in unprofitable areas of the firm Tom Becker an outside spokesman for the firm said in an emailed statement He declined to discuss the number of jobs cut or teams affected but said the company has about 100 employees As many as 25 workers were cut a mix of traders and support staff said a person with knowledge of the matter
The reduction follows the decision by another Chicago based high speed firm XR Trading to let about 10 of its staff go late last year Low volatility has made for a tough environment for many high frequency traders as they rely on price movements to allow them to buy and sell futures and other assets throughout the day
Allston founded by futures traders Bob Jordan Elrick Williams NYSE WMB and John Harada uses its own money rather than customer funds and is active in futures cash currencies commodities and fixed income assets according to records maintained by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
While closely held Allston keeps a low profile it has made headlines in recent years Chopper Trading sued Allston last year saying it engaged in spoofing in U S Treasury futures markets a type of manipulation that involves entering fake orders to move prices Chopper alleged that Allston engaged in spoofing from 2012 to 2015 In May Allston filed a motion asking the court to compel arbitration and should that not be granted to dismiss the suit because it said Chopper had missed the window of opportunity to file a claim The case is ongoing
The U S Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2015 began an investigation into Allston for alleged market manipulation a person familiar with the matter said at the time The regulator subpoenaed CME Group Inc NASDAQ CME for information related to Allston the person said Through an arbitration process at CME Allston was accused by a rival the year before of misleading competitors through spoofing Allston said then it had done nothing wrong
Becker declined to comment on the CFTC investigation
Our decision to focus the firm s technology resources in more promising areas of our business is unrelated to any regulatory or compliance considerations Becker said in the statement |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.