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C | This Commodity Cycle Certainly Hasn t Been Super | Five years into the biggest money printing exercise of all time and commodities are incredibly approaching the status of being universally loathed On Friday gold provided a great illustration of one reason I always say that investors should have a position in diversified commodity indices A Goldman Sachs report released a couple of days ago with gold 20 off the highs suggested that prices may have further to fall more important to Friday s rout though was the increase in the European assessment of how much more money Cyprus will have to raise for itself 6bln or about 35 40 of annual Cypriot GDP to complete the bailout and the speculation that Cypriot gold reserves will have to be sold Add to this the fact that Friday s economic data was weak with ex Auto Retail Sales 0 4 and the Michigan Confidence figure showing a surprising drop Clearly investors believe this to be a death knell for inflation as opposed to the death bell I m not sure what that is that for the commodity supercycle But all of the data and the European sovereign crisis apparently does support rapidly rising home prices and equities at disturbing multiples of 10 year earnings Considering that commodities have been around far longer than equities bonds or even money itself it is incredible how little understanding there is about them One misunderstanding and key to understanding the current situation is not peculiar to commodities It is simply the common confusion of nominal and real quantities In a nutshell the change in any good s nominal price over time consists of two things a real price change and a change in the price that recognizes that the value of the currency unit measuring stick has changed that is inflation We re familiar with this construction in the form of the Fisher equation which tells us that nominal yields represent the combination of a real return that is the cost of money plus a premium or less frequently a discount for the expected change in the price level over the holding period But that construction applies to all price changes So if the price of your ham sandwich rises 3 this year is there a bull market in ham sandwiches Well in all likelihood not it s just that the overall price level is rising by roughly that amount What about if the price of the ham sandwich rises by only 1 because ham is becoming cheaper Then we would say that there was a 2 decline in the real price of the ham sandwich plus 3 inflation Now if prices instead rose 15 the ham sandwich in this latter scenario would not still be only rising in price by 1 It would likely rise by 13 or so the 15 inflation minus the 2 decline in the real price of a ham sandwich Even if a ham sandwich glut was forcing a 10 decline in real prices the nominal price of a ham sandwich would still be rising in that case So when groups trumpet the end of the commodity cycle they seem to be confused It is possible that they are saying that real commodity prices should decline over time but I wonder whether their clients would be awed by that prediction since it has been the norm for hundreds of years Moreover if they were referring to real prices then if CPI goes up 10 and commodity prices go up 5 they will be right but clients might not see it the same way But I don t think that s what they are saying If it is then those groups are also a bit late to the party commodity indices which include additional sources of return have underperformed inflation by 28 since 2004 and are down about half from the 2008 highs Frankly in the chart below Source Bloomberg which shows the DJ UBS commodity index divided by the NSA CPI I don t see anything which looks like an up leg of a supercycle except perhaps the doubling from 2003 2008 Is a 100 gain over five years a supercycle Now in the SP GSCI which has a much greater weight in energy it looks plausibly like a supercycle as prices tripled in real terms off the lows in 1999 see Chart source Bloomberg and admittedly the chart looks a little feeble at the moment But that difference is as I just suggested mostly due to energy And if you think the energy supercycle has ended just short energy don t paint all commodities with the ugly brush And by the way it seems like a pretty wimpy supercycle if the peak in real terms doesn t even approach the earlier peak In nominal terms all of these charts look different with the downswings being dampened and the upswings accentuated because of inflation But that s certainly not the right way to look at commodities or any asset over time We don t care about the nominal return We care about the real return And viewed through a real return lens commodities are much closer to being really cheap than to being really rich Obviously I disagree with all of these groups when it comes to commodities generally About gold I have no firmly held opinion about its valuation at the moment but commodities generally we see as cheap in fact we expect triple the real returns from investing in commodities indices over the next ten years compared to equity investing This is a function of both the very rich absolute valuations of equities and the very cheap absolute valuations of commodities indices Moreover if inflation does in fact accelerate something which has nothing to do with the weak Michigan or Retail Sales numbers then commodities will also have terrific nominal returns while equities might well have negative nominal returns |
JPM | JPMorgan launches blockchain trial project FT | Reuters JPMorgan Chase N JPM is partnering with start up Digital Asset Holdings to launch a trial project using blockchain technology that could reduce the cost and complexity of trading the Financial Times reported on Sunday The agreement comes as another sign that blockchain which is best known as the basis of the digital currency Bitcoin has wide ranging applications for some of Wall Street s biggest banks One potential use for the technology is addressing liquidity mismatches in some of JPMorgan s loan funds the Financial Times said To sell a loan is a very cumbersome time consuming process settlement can take weeks Daniel Pinto head of JPMorgan s investment bank told the Financial Times It makes all the sense in the world to explore blockchain s potential to improve that process Digital Asset Holdings is run by Blythe Masters JPMorgan s former head of commodities |
JPM | Global factories parched for demand need stimulus | By Jonathan Cable and Wayne Cole LONDON SYDNEY Reuters January surveys of global factory activity released on Monday showed the new year began much as the old one ended with too much capacity chasing too little demand Global manufacturing expansion accelerated slightly but remained weak at the start of 2016 as faster growth in developed markets failed to offset a contraction in emerging economies JPMorgan s Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI produced with Markit came in at 50 9 last month just above December s 50 7 The index has been above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction since late 2012 The January PMI data signal that the upturn in global manufacturing remained lackluster at the start of 2016 said David Hensley director of global economic coordination at JPMorgan N JPM Stock markets and oil prices have been battered since the start of the year by concern the Chinese economy the world s second largest is struggling Such concern has eroded expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve will raise U S interest rates after its first increase in almost a decade in December ASIAN WOES China was again the epicenter of disappointment The official measure of manufacturing fell to its lowest since mid 2012 The weakness also encompassed such bellwethers of high tech trade as South Korea and Taiwan The official version of China s PMI survey for manufacturing slipped to 49 4 in January from 49 7 The services index also disappointed challenging hopes consumption would take over from industry as the driving force A private survey the Caixin Markit China Manufacturing PMI underscored the trend by showing factory activity shrinking for an 11th month The electricity production remained sluggish and the crude steel output continued the weak trend in January reflecting an ongoing deleveraging process in the industrial sectors said Zhou Hao an economist at Commerzbank DE CBKG In the meantime China has started an aggressive capacity reduction in many sectors which could add downward pressure on the bulk commodity prices over time he said Japan s results were more encouraging Its factory barometer slipped only a tick to 52 3 in January as exports picked up The gains in exports relied on a weak yen hinting at another reason the BOJ acted so boldly when it introduced negative interest rates last week India also recorded an unexpected return to growth Its erratic PMI jumped to a four month high after slumping to a 28 month low in December Other countries in the region were not so fortunate South Korea s manufacturing index slipped into contraction Its exports suffered their sharpest annual fall since August 2009 China is South Korea s largest market taking about a quarter of its exports The story was much the same for another electronics hub Taiwan where factory growth slowed amid lackluster demand EUROPE SLOWS Factory growth across the euro zone slowed at the start of 2016 as incoming orders failed to show any meaningful increase even though companies cut prices at the deepest rate for a year the Markit survey on Monday The Markit manufacturing PMI for the euro zone dropped to 52 3 from December s 53 2 The euro zone s manufacturing economy missed a beat at the start of the year Growth of order books exports and output all slowed said Chris Williamson chief economist at survey compiler Markit If the slowdown in business activity wasn t enough to worry policymakers prices charged by producers fell at the fastest rate for a year to spur further concern about deflation becoming ingrained With eurozone consumer price inflation at only 0 4 percent last month nowhere near the ECB s target of around 2 0 percent the ECB is likely to cut its deposit rate even further into negative territory when it meets next month a Reuters poll found last week British factories enjoyed a brighter start to the year than expected helped by surging output at large manufacturers but companies cut staff at the fastest rate in three years and export orders fell a survey showed on Monday The British Markit CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to a three month high of 52 9 in January from 52 1 in December AMERICAS SLUGGISH In the United States the Markit manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 52 4 in January from 51 2 in December An alternative reading from the U S Institute of Supply Management ISM showed manufacturing activity in January contracted for the fourth month in a row though at a slightly slower pace with the index at 48 2 from 48 0 the previous month Canadian factory activity also contracted but at a slower pace in January The RBC Markit Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI edged up to 49 3 last month from 47 5 in December The six month stretch below 50 is the longest since the survey began in late 2010 While Canadian business conditions continued to deteriorate in January we saw signs of stabilization in the manufacturing industry supported by strong export sales alongside a pick up in the U S economy and a weakening Canadian dollar said Craig Wright chief economist at RBC Brazil s manufacturing activity also contracted in January but at the slowest pace in nearly one year according to Markit
The HSBC Markit PMI rose to 47 4 from 45 6 in December but output new orders employment and purchasing levels at Brazilian manufacturers all dropped as the country sank into what is expected to be its worst recession since 1901 |
BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Surpasses Q4 Earnings And Revenue Estimates | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY came out with quarterly earnings of 1 22 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 88 per share This compares to earnings of 0 94 per share a year ago These figures are adjusted for non recurring items
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 38 64 A quarter ago it was expected that this biopharmaceutical company would post earnings of 1 06 per share when it actually produced earnings of 1 17 delivering a surprise of 10 38
Over the last four quarters the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times
Bristol Myers which belongs to the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry posted revenues of 7 95 billion for the quarter ended December 2019 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 29 45 This compares to year ago revenues of 5 97 billion The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters
The sustainability of the stock s immediate price movement based on the recently released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management s commentary on the earnings call
Bristol Myers shares have added about 2 2 since the beginning of the year versus the S P 500 s gain of 3 2
What s Next for Bristol Myers
While Bristol Myers has underperformed the market so far this year the question that comes to investors minds is what s next for the stock
There are no easy answers to this key question but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company s earnings outlook Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter s but also how these expectations have changed lately
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried and tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions
Ahead of this earnings release the estimate revisions trend for Bristol Myers was mixed While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company s just released earnings report the current status translates into a Zacks Rank 3 Hold for the stock So the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead The current consensus EPS estimate is 1 50 on 10 11 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and 6 04 on 42 11 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank Large Cap Pharmaceuticals is currently in the top 44 of the 250 plus Zacks industries Our research shows that the top 50 of the Zacks ranked industries outperform the bottom 50 by a factor of more than 2 to 1 |
BMY | How Trading Your Own Retirement Can Fleece Your Financial Future February 07 2020 | Maybe you re a seasoned investor and have a good track record with stock picking And you may have a robust retirement portfolio perhaps including some Zacks Top Retirement stock selections such as
OceanFirst Financial OCFC Brinker International EAT and Bristol Myers Squibb BMY
If this sounds like you then here s a question With your background and skills should you manage your own retirement investments
Perhaps if you re the one in a million investor who can expertly manage risk and maintain unflinching emotional control in volatile markets But for most there may be better strategies to achieve long term retirement investing goals
Active stock trading requires a very different investing approach and risk reward mindset than investing for retirement
Diversification vs Stock Picking
While stock picking can potentially generate outsized returns its excessive concentrated risk can present huge perils for retirement investors
A study done by Hendrik Bessembinder of equity markets spanning nine decades revealed that only 4 of the best performing U S stocks produced all the market s increases The rest were flat the gains of the following 38 were offset by the losses of the bottom 58
For even the most talented stock pickers the odds for long term success are slim
Is Successful Investing a Mind Game
Most people think they can make rational investment decisions but research indicates the opposite is often true Investors followed in a DALBAR study performed significantly worse than the S P 500 For the 30 years between 1986 to 2015 the average investor earned just 3 66 whereas the S P 500 produced a 10 35 return
It is interesting to note that the period covered by this study includes the 1987 crash the 2000 bear market and the Great Recession of 2008 as well as the bull market of the 1990s
An important takeaway of this study is that investors seem to underperform because they try to time volatile markets and irrational emotional responses tend to these investing mistakes
Curiously even experienced traders tend to underperform since they can t resist the emotional urge to make impulsive investment choices They might be overly self assured and miscalculate risk get attached to a price target or perceive a pattern that does not exist This behavioral fallacy over the long term can be disastrous with potential underperformance of a huge number of dollars disrupting your retirement
The Key Takeaway for Retirement Investors
Your retirement portfolio ought to be dealt with a technique of performance over decades not days weeks or quarters Most self coordinated investors will in general miss the mark with regards to long term outcomes
Does that mean you should quit trading Not really One plan is to take 10 of your investable resources and trade to create alpha and look for outsized returns
But the bulk of your wealth those assets earmarked for retirement should be invested using a more measured conservative risk management approach to generate steady compounded returns so you can safely reach your retirement goals
Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes
Whether you re planning to retire early or not don t let investing mistakes derail your plans
If you have 500 000 or more to invest and want to learn more click the link to download our free report 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement This report will help you steer clear of the most common mistakes like trying to time the market lack of diversification in your portfolio and many more Get Your FREE Guide Now |
HAL | Halliburton HAL Q3 Earnings Crush Loss Estimate | Have you been eager to see how Halliburton Company NYSE HAL the world s No 2 oilfield services company performed in Q3 in comparison with the market expectations Let s quickly scan through the key facts from this Houston TX based company s earnings release this morning About Halliburton Halliburton is one of the largest oilfield service providers in the world offering a variety of equipment maintenance and engineering and construction services to the energy industrial and government sectors The company operates under two main segments Completion and Production and Drilling and Evaluation Zacks Rank Surprise History Currently Halliburton has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold but that could change following its third quarter 2016 earnings report which has just released You can see Coming to earnings surprise history the company has an excellent track record its beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters at an average rate of 36 33 HALLIBURTON CO Price and EPS Surprise Estimate Revision Trend Investors should note that the earnings estimate revisions for Halliburton depicted pessimism prior to the earnings release The Zacks Consensus Estimate worsened slightly over the last 7 days We have highlighted some of the key details from the just released announcement below A Surprise Profit Net income per share came in at 1 cent contrary to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for a loss of 7 cents Continued and effective cost management led to the outperformance Revenue Came in Lower than Expected Halliburton posted revenues of 3 833 million missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 897 5 million Moreover revenues deteriorated 31 on a year over year basis Key Stats Operating income from the Completion Production segment was 24 million falling sharply from the year ago profit of 163 million However the division turned around from previous quarter s loss of 32 million Halliburton s Drilling Evaluation unit profit also dropped big time from 401 million in the third quarter of 2015 to 151 million this year But again the number was almost flat with the 154 million earned in the Jun quarter Check back later for our full write up on this Halliburton earnings report later Confidential from Zacks Beyond this Tale of the Tape would you like to see Zacks best recommendations that are not available to the public Our Executive VP Steve Reitmeister knows when key trades are about to be triggered and which of our experts has the hottest hand |
HAL | Are These Energy Stocks Changing The Game | The energy sector is constantly changing We know that there is a
high dependence on oil and I like to say that oil is the fuel for
the world s economy With oil prices rebounding amid talk of an
OPEC production cut investors are looking at the sector for some
new ideas
At Zacks Investment Research I manage the Game Changers portfolio
where I look for stocks that are positioned to benefit from large
shifts in demand It might be tech it might be consumer staples
and it might be energy Right now I hold two stocks in the energy
space in the portfolio but I want to review other potential
additions as well
Trusting the Rank
At Zacks we focus most of our energy on earnings and more
specifically stocks that show positive earnings estimate revisions
The Zacks Rank is an algorithm that tells me which stocks are
seeing the best earnings estimate revisions and I use it on a
daily basis to screen for stocks
Helix Energy Solutions HLX is a Zacks Rank 1
Strong Buy stock that has seen a great run over the last several
weeks as it moved from 7 to more than 10 per share today Last
night the company presented a slide in a presentation that wasn t
especially positive but the market doesn t seem to mind The
company see FY16 revenues of 505M down slightly from 510M that
was the previously guided number The reason the stock is up is
that the Wall Street consensus was calling for 500M in revenue so
it is a slight uptick
The company just posted earnings 0 10 when the Zacks Consensus
Estimate was calling for a 0 04 That 0 06 beat is a 150
positive earnings surprise and just what I like to see in a
candidate for my Game Changers portfolio
Gushing Over Another Stock
Baker Hughes BHI is a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and is
slated to report earnings soon The company is on a bit of a skid
as it has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last
three reports
I see the Zacks Consensus calling for revenue of 2 427B in revenue
and a loss of 0 44 per share
BHI isn t really changing the game for me right now but we will
learn more about this stock following the earnings report which is
expected out early next week
Another Oil Name
Halliburton NYSE HAL is also a Zacks Rank 2 Buy
and coming off a solid earnings report The company reported
earnings of 0 01 when the Zacks Consensus Estimate was looking for
a loss of 0 07 The 0 08 beat translates into a positive
earnings surprise of 114 and that is music to my ears
Earnings estimates for next year are a little stagnant as they have
not move moved that much over the last five months In that time
period the number was as high as 0 90 and as low as 0 88 and is
currently 0 89
That said the 0 89 looks great compared to a loss of 0 16 which
is the current Zacks Consensus Estimate for FY16
Not Oil But Close
Energy Recovery ERII was the a few weeks ago and I
strongly encourage you to check that article out I go into the
recent earnings history estimate changes and valuation as well in
that write up ERII is not really oil but they are involved in
the industrial fluid flow markets
ERII does a lot of work in the desalinization industry but is also
a player in the oil and gas industry Remember there is a large
part of the eco system of oil that is industrial products and
services to help keep the world s engine all greased up
ERII is the exact type of stock that I look for in Game Changers
Low Price Big Potential
The other service I manage at Zacks is Stocks Under 10 This
looks to leverage the Zacks Rank and stocks that are priced under
10 Right now I only have 12 stocks in that portfolio and I am
looking to expand it to the normal level of 15 names in the near
future
One potential addition is Precision Drill PDS as
it is a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and of course priced below 10 The
company is expected to report earnings tomorrow before the open so
I will be watching it closely
Confidential from Zacks
This week Zacks researchers have named 7 other stocks that look to
break out even sooner than today s Bull of the Day You can see
these time sensitive tickers free and access additional trades
that are not available to the public
Follow Brian Bolan
Want more articles from this author Go to Zacks com on this
article and click the FOLLOW AUTHOR button to get an email
each
time a new article is published
Brian Bolan is a Stock Strategist
for
Zacks com
He runs service where he looks for low
priced
stocks
that are seeing positive earnings estimate revisions This
popular
service has seen some
strong early returns and offers a free trial via the Zacks
Ultimate
service
Brian also runs the brand new where
he looks for stocks that are disrupting their industries and
reaping big gains |
HAL | Zacks Investment Ideas Feature Highlights Helix Energy Solutions Baker Hughes Halliburton Energy Recovery And Precision Drill | For Immediate Release
Chicago IL October 21 2016 Today Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Features Helix Energy Solutions NYSE Baker Hughes NYSE Halliburton NYSE HAL NYSE Energy Recovery NASDAQ and Precision Drill NYSE
Are These Energy Stocks Changing the Game
The energy sector is constantly changing We know that there is a high dependence on oil and I like to say that oil is the fuel for the world s economy With oil prices rebounding amid talk of an OPEC production cut investors are looking at the sector for some new ideas
At Zacks Investment Research I manage the Game Changers portfolio where I look for stocks that are positioned to benefit from large shifts in demand It might be tech it might be consumer staples and it might be energy Right now I hold two stocks in the energy space in the portfolio but I want to review other potential additions as well
Trusting the Rank
At Zacks we focus most of our energy on earnings and more specifically stocks that show positive earnings estimate revisions The Zacks Rank is an algorithm that tells me which stocks are seeing the best earnings estimate revisions and I use it on a daily basis to screen for stocks
Helix Energy Solutions NYSE is a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy stock that has seen a great run over the last several weeks as it moved from 7 to more than 10 per share today Last night the company presented a slide in a presentation that wasn t especially positive but the market doesn t seem to mind The company see FY16 revenues of 505M down slightly from 510M that was the previously guided number The reason the stock is up is that the Wall Street consensus was calling for 500M in revenue so it is a slight uptick
The company just posted earnings 0 10 when the Zacks Consensus Estimate was calling for a 0 04 That 0 06 beat is a 150 positive earnings surprise and just what I like to see in a candidate for my Game Changers portfolio
Gushing Over Another Stock
Baker Hughes NYSE is a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and is slated to report earnings soon The company is on a bit of a skid as it has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last three reports
I see the Zacks Consensus calling for revenue of 2 427B in revenue and a loss of 0 44 per share
BHI isn t really changing the game for me right now but we will learn more about this stock following the earnings report which is expected out early next week
Another Oil Name
Halliburton NYSE is also a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and coming off a solid earnings report The company reported earnings of 0 01 when the Zacks Consensus Estimate was looking for a loss of 0 07 The 0 08 beat translates into a positive earnings surprise of 114 and that is music to my ears
Earnings estimates for next year are a little stagnant as they have not move moved that much over the last five months In that time period the number was as high as 0 90 and as low as 0 88 and is currently 0 89
That said the 0 89 looks great compared to a loss of 0 16 which is the current Zacks Consensus Estimate for FY16
Not Oil But Close
Energy Recovery NASDAQ was the a few weeks ago and I strongly encourage you to check that article out I go into the recent earnings history estimate changes and valuation as well in that write up ERII is not really oil but they are involved in the industrial fluid flow markets
ERII does a lot of work in the desalinization industry but is also a player in the oil and gas industry Remember there is a large part of the eco system of oil that is industrial products and services to help keep the world s engine all greased up
ERII is the exact type of stock that I look for in Game Changers
Low Price Big Potential
The other service I manage at Zacks is Stocks Under 10 This looks to leverage the Zacks Rank and stocks that are priced under 10 Right now I only have 12 stocks in that portfolio and I am looking to expand it to the normal level of 15 names in the near future
One potential addition is Precision Drill NYSE as it is a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and of course priced below 10 The company is expected to report earnings tomorrow before the open so I will be watching it closely
Confidential from Zacks
This week Zacks researchers have named 7 other stocks that look to break out even sooner than today s Bull of the Day You can see these time sensitive tickers free and access additional trades that are not available to the public
Follow Brian Bolan on twitter at BBolan1
Want more articles from this author Go to Zacks com on this article and click the FOLLOW AUTHOR button to get an email each time a new article is published
Brian Bolan is a Stock Strategist for Zacks com
He runs Stocks Under 10 Investor service where he looks for low priced stocks that are seeing positive earnings estimate revisions This popular service has seen some strong early returns and offers a free trial via the Zacks Ultimate service
Brian also runs the brand new Zacks Game Changers where he looks for stocks that are disrupting their industries and reaping big gains
Looking for Ideas with Even Greater Upside
Today s investment ideas are short term directly based on our proven 1 to 3 month indicator In addition I invite you to consider our long term opportunities These rare trades look to start fast with strong Zacks Ranks but carry through with double and triple digit profit potential Starting now you can look inside our home run value and stocks under 10 portfolios plus more
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
C | Copper futures trim losses after Italian Spanish yields drop | Investing com Copper futures trimmed losses on Wednesday bouncing off a four day low as a drop in Italian and Spanish bond yields helped boost market sentiment On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3 473 a pound during European morning trade shedding 0 8 It earlier tumbled by as much as 1 9 to trade at USD3 431 a pound the lowest price since November 11 Copper futures came off their lows after Italian government borrowing costs eased back below the 7 threshold a level widely viewed as unsustainable in the long term The yield on the nation s 10 year bond fell to 6 75 well off Tuesday s high of 7 25 Later Wednesday incoming Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti was due to meet with President Giorgio Napolitano to officially accept the post and present his new government Spanish yields also declined falling to 6 22 from Tuesday s three month high of 6 34 amid speculation the ECB was purchasing bonds in the secondary market The U S dollar moderated gains against its major counterparts with the greenback pulling back from a five week high against the euro The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies was up 0 07 to trade at 78 16 after being up by as much as 0 62 earlier Mounting fears over potential sovereign debt contagion in core euro zone economies weighed on copper prices during the Asian trading session Meanwhile union workers at Freeport McMoran s Grasberg mine in Indonesia extended their strike into a third month a union representative said on Tuesday Wall Street lender Citigroup said in a report late Tuesday that the Freeport supply loss was limiting price weakness for copper despite expectations of weaker global demand Grasberg is one of the world s largest copper mines In 2010 Freeport sold 1 2 billion pounds of copper from Grasberg Elsewhere on the Comex gold for December delivery dropped 0 45 to trade at USD1 774 25 a troy ounce while silver for December delivery eased down 0 05 to trade at USD34 44 a troy ounce |
C | Hungary Raises Rate Cut Threshold | Hungary s central bank tightened the conditions for monetary easing after it cut borrowing costs to a record low in the first decision since Gyorgy Matolcsy took charge of rate policy The forint strengthened The Magyar Nemzeti Bank reduced the two week deposit rate by a quarter point to 5 percent cutting it for an eighth month and matching the forecast of 25 of 29 Bloomberg surveyed economists Easing can only continue if uncertainty in the market environment abates policy makers said in a statement They ve become more cautious and this is a positive surprise Eszter Gargyan a Budapest based economist at Citigroup Inc said by e mail Hungary s currency had weakened as Matolcsy s appointment sparked speculation over the direction of monetary policy including the possible use of reserves to stimulate the economy and reduce foreign currency loans The country is in its second recession in four years and the central bank said the inflation rate is headed below its 3 percent target throughout the horizon for monetary policy The forint jumped the most in over a week rising 0 9 percent against the euro to 303 43 by 4 02 p m in Budapest That pared its loss to 2 7 percent in the past month still the worst among more than 20 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg after the South African rand |
C | Gold Tries To Break Watch For Weakness | The sharp fall in gold Tuesday from the 1600 level with extensions through the support line suggests that a corrective wave 4 is complete with failure wave c in the 1617 region Also notice that recent weakness has extended through the support line of a base channel which is very important evidence when trying to identify a continuation mode As such we think that impulsive price action is now underway toward 1540 Meanwhile any minor bounce should be wave four in the middle of an impulsive weakness that may find resistance around 1575 1580 Critical level is at 1590 if breached then we will look for even more complex wave 4 but still part of a corrective movement |
C | Citigroup Stock Analysis Nearing A Make It Or Break It Moment | Late last week I received a request to look at Citigroup stock Ticker symbol C As per usual I started to dig in from a risk management perspective highlighting key Citigroup stock support and resistance levels But as I moved from Citigroup on across the sector I noticed that many bank stocks although trending from lower left to upper right are at an important near term juncture With this in mind I ll be sure to do a chartology on the Financial Sector XLF Below are 2 Citigroup stock charts looking at C from a near term and long term perspective On the near term chart it is clear that Citigroup stock is nearing a make it or break it moment The stock is sitting below its 50 day moving average resting on its near term uptrend line and the 50 day moving average is starting to flatten out This is a similar setup to late November early December where the stock toyed with the uptrend line before pushing higher pushing the 50 day moving average up with it However there are differences at this juncture Note that Citigroup stock was 7 percent above its 200 day moving average in late November it s now 18 percent above that moving average This may leave Citigroup stock vulnerable to underperformance even if it does catch a nice bounce As well there is an open gap down at 39 56 that could be a magnet if the uptrend line breaks In short the trend is your friend and two closes below the uptrend line would flash caution Citigroup Stock Technical Support Near Term Chart On the long term chart the 50 dollar level has provided major resistance Over 2009 to 2011 Citigroup stock price bounced up against 50 dollars multiple times before breaking down and out of a bearish wedge formation in 2011 In 2013 the stock once again managed to work its way back to this key resistance level before recently failing again Longer term Citigroup technical support resides at the four year uptrend line around 32 but this would only come into play if another storm struck the market indices And investors would have plenty of forewarning simply by monitoring key support levels from the inside out from a near term lens to a longer term one Other Citigroup technical support levels reside around 39 56 open gap 38 October November highs and 36 200 day moving average C Technical Support and Resistance Levels Long Term ChartTrade safe trade disciplined |
JPM | JPMorgan raises Dimon s pay 35 percent but adds strings | By David Henry NEW YORK Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM directors raised Chief Executive Jamie Dimon s total compensation by 35 percent to 27 million for 2015 a regulatory filing on Thursday showed But the board cut the cash portion and tied three fourths of the total to more performance sensitive stock awards the filing with the U S Securities and Exchange Commission said The company pegged Dimon s base salary at 1 5 million the same as a year earlier and set his variable compensation at 5 million in cash and 20 5 million in performance share units A year earlier the cash portion was 7 4 million and 11 1 million of stock came in more secure restricted stock units The package was changed to tie more of Dimon s compensation to objective measures of performance and leave less leeway for judgment and is a response to investor complaints that Dimon s pay was too arbitrary according to a person familiar with the matter How Dimon s pay is set is sensitive at JPMorgan At the company s last annual meeting in May Dimon contended that criticism of the company s compensation by services advising institutional investors on proxy votes was off base in its view that more restrictive formulas are better The services usually comment on compensation packages once companies fill their annual proxy statements discussing rationales for pay JPMorgan s proxy is expected in April according to Thursday s filing which also said the proxy will include more details of the latest pay decisions the board of directors made on Tuesday for executives
The decisions include raises of 1 5 million to 18 5 million for Chief Operating Officer Matthew Zames and for Daniel Pinto the chief executive for the corporate and investment bank according to the person familiar with the matter Compensation for Mary Erdoes the asset management chief executive is rising to 18 million from 16 5 million compensation for Chief Financial Officer Marianne Lake goes to 11 million from 10 million |
JPM | JPMorgan to pay 1 42 billion cash to settle most Lehman claims | By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM will pay 1 42 billion in cash to resolve most of a lawsuit accusing it of draining Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc of critical liquidity in the final days before that investment bank s September 2008 collapse The settlement was made public on Monday and requires approval by U S Bankruptcy Judge Shelley Chapman in Manhattan It resolves the bulk of an 8 6 billion lawsuit accusing JPMorgan of exploiting its leverage as Lehman s main clearing bank to siphon billions of dollars of collateral just before Lehman went bankrupt on Sept 15 2008 triggering a global financial crisis Lehman s creditors charged that JPMorgan did not need the collateral and extracted a windfall at their expense Monday s settlement also resolves Lehman s challenges to JPMorgan s decision to close out thousands of derivatives trades following the bankruptcy court papers showed The accord would permit a further 1 496 billion to be distributed to the creditors including a separate 76 million deposit court papers showed More than 105 billion has already been paid to Lehman s unsecured creditors Lehman has said While the Settlement Agreement is not a global resolution of all issues between the parties it ends a significant portion of their disagreements lawyers for Lehman and its creditors said in court papers The compromises set forth in the Settlement Agreement are a fair and equitable resolution JPMorgan declined to comment A spokeswoman for Lehman also declined to comment The settlement is not expected to have a material impact on JPMorgan s earnings a person familiar with the matter said Both sides settled nearly four months after U S District Judge Richard Sullivan ruled for JPMorgan saying the largest U S bank had no obligation to keep Lehman alive and did not defraud it into providing collateral Once Wall Street s fourth largest bank Lehman reported 639 billion of assets when it filed for Chapter 11 protection making its bankruptcy by far the largest in U S history
Lehman emerged from bankruptcy in March 2012 and has since been winding down |
BMY | Zacks com Featured Highlights Include SNX ICHR TECD NSIT And BMY | For Immediate Release
Chicago IL January 24 2019 Stocks in this week s article are SYNNEX NYSE SNX Ichor Holdings Ltd NASDAQ ICHR Tech Data Corporation NASDAQ TECD Insight Enterprises Inc NASDAQ NSIT and Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY 5 Stocks Near a 52 Week High that Can Scale HigherInvestors often use a 52 week high as a parameter for stock selection This is because stocks near that level are perceived as winners However the high price often compels investors to wonder whether the stock is trading at a premium While the speculations are not completely baseless all stocks at a 52 week high are not overpriced In fact investors might lose out on top gainers in an attempt to avoid the steep prices A good stock can maintain the momentum and keep scaling new highs So more information on a stock is necessary to understand whether there is scope for further upside Here we discuss a strategy to find the right stocks on basics of momentum investing which follows the buy high sell higher technique 52 Week High A Good IndicatorMany a time stocks hitting a 52 week high fail to scale higher despite potential This is because investors fear that the stocks are overvalued and apprehend a crash In fact overvaluation is natural for most of these stocks as investors focus or willingness to pay premium has helped them reach the level But that does not always indicate an impending decline Factors such as robust sales surging profit levels earnings growth prospects and strategic acquisitions that encouraged investors to bet on these stocks could keep them motivated if there is no tangible negative In other words the momentum might continue Also when a string of positive developments dominates the market investors find their under reaction unwarranted even if there are no company specific driving forces For the rest of this Screen of the Week article please visit Zacks com at Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material About Screen of the WeekZacks com created the first and best screening system on the web earning the distinction as the 1 site for screening stocks by Money Magazine But powerful screening tools is just the start That is why Zacks created the Screen of the Week to highlight profitable stock picking strategies that investors can actively use Strong Stocks that Should Be in the NewsMany are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar They re virtually unknown to the general public Yet today s 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys were generated by the stock picking system that has more than doubled the market from 1988 through 2016 Its average gain has been a stellar 25 per year Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook NASDAQ FB Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities including a broker dealer and an investment adviser which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates Contact Jim GiaquintoCompany Zacks comPhone 312 265 9268Email Visit Zacks com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks Terms and Conditions of Service disclaimer Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
BMY | Signs That Your Trading Will Ruin Your Retirement January 30 2020 | Maybe you re a seasoned investor and have a good track record with stock picking And you may have a robust retirement portfolio perhaps including some Zacks Top Retirement stock selections such as
Marine Products MPX Brinker International EAT and Bristol Myers Squibb BMY
If you did something similar would it be advisable for you to trade your own retirement nest egg
Maybe if you re an exceptional investor who can expertly manage risk and keep up perfectly resolute emotional control in the face of market volatility Be that as it may for most investors there might be better ways to accomplish long term retirement investing objectives
Active stock trading requires an altogether different investing philosophy and risk reward understanding than building wealth for retirement
How Diversification Differs from Stock Picking
While stock picking can potentially result in outsized returns its outsized concentrated risk can pose significant hazards for retirement investors
A study done by Hendrik Bessembinder of equity markets over nine decades found that just 4 of the best performing U S stocks generated all the market s gains The rest were flat the gains of the next 38 were wiped out by the bottom 58 which lost money
Those numbers reinforce that even if you are an experienced and talented stock picker your chances of success over a long period are very slim
Is it Possible to Invest Rationally
Investors feel they can make sensible choices however research demonstrates that the opposite is what often happens A DALBAR study analyzed investors from 1986 to 2015 and found that the average investor significantly underperformed compared to the S P 500 Over 30 years the S P 500 produced a return of 10 35 while the average investor return was only 3 66
It is interesting to note that the period covered by this study includes the 1987 crash the 2000 bear market and the Great Recession of 2008 as well as the bull market of the 1990s
This study suggests that one key reason for investor underperformance is trying to time volatile markets and that irrational behavior biases tend to compound investor mistakes
Curiously even experienced traders tend to underperform since they can t resist the emotional urge to make impulsive investment choices They might be overly self assured and miscalculate risk get attached to a price target or perceive a pattern that does not exist This behavioral fallacy over the long term can be disastrous with potential underperformance of a huge number of dollars disrupting your retirement
The Bottom Line for Retirement Investors
Your retirement portfolio ought to be dealt with a technique of performance over decades not days weeks or quarters Most self coordinated investors will in general miss the mark with regards to long term outcomes
Does that mean you should give up trading Not necessarily One solution is to take 10 of your investable assets and trade to generate alpha and seek outsized returns
But the bulk of your wealth those assets earmarked for retirement should be invested using a more measured conservative risk management approach to generate steady compounded returns so you can safely reach your retirement goals
Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes
Whether you re planning to retire early or not don t let investing mistakes derail your plans
If you have 500 000 or more to invest and want to learn more click the link to download our free report 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement This report will help you steer clear of the most common mistakes like trying to time the market lack of diversification in your portfolio and many more Get Your FREE Guide Now |
BMY | Analysts Estimate Bristol Myers Squibb BMY To Report A Decline In Earnings What To Look Out For | Wall Street expects a year over year decline in earnings on higher revenues when Bristol Myers Squibb BMY reports results for the quarter ended December 2019 While this widely known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company s earnings picture a powerful factor that could impact its near term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report which is expected to be released on February 6 On the other hand if they miss the stock may move lower
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management s discussion of business conditions on the earnings call it s worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This biopharmaceutical company is expected to post quarterly earnings of 0 88 per share in its upcoming report which represents a year over year change of 6 4
Revenues are expected to be 6 14 billion up 2 8 from the year ago quarter
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts
Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company s earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out Our proprietary surprise prediction model the Zacks Earnings ESP Expected Surprise Prediction has this insight at its core
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier
Thus a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate However the model s predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy 2 Buy or 3 Hold Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70 of the time and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and or Zacks Rank of 4 Sell or 5 Strong Sell
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Bristol Myers
For Bristol Myers the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company s earnings prospects This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 2 64
On the other hand the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3
So this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Bristol Myers will beat the consensus EPS estimate
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue
Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings So it s worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number
For the last reported quarter it was expected that Bristol Myers would post earnings of 1 06 per share when it actually produced earnings of 1 17 delivering a surprise of 10 38
Over the last four quarters the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors Similarly unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss
That said betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success This is why it s worth checking a company s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they ve reported
Bristol Myers doesn t appear a compelling earnings beat candidate However investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release |
HAL | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Baker Hughes Halliburton Company Schlumberger And Oceaneering International | For Immediate Release
Chicago IL October 03 2016 Zacks com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets Stocks recently featured in the blog include Baker Hughes Inc NYSE Halliburton Company NYSE HAL NYSE Schlumberger Ltd NYSE and Oceaneering International Inc NYSE
Today Zacks is promoting its Buy stock recommendations
Here are highlights from Friday s Analyst Blog
Hundreds Laid Off as Norway Oil Workers Strike Continues
The Norwegian oil service strike is causing labor turmoil in the nation s energy industry sparking hundreds of layoffs
Pink Slips for 350 Oil Workers
As per the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association an industry forum for oil employers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf approximately 350 oil related jobs have been lost due to the strike that began on Wed Sep 21 Of the axed workers majority or roughly 300 were from Baker Hughes Inc NYSE while local units of fellow U S oilfield services behemoths Halliburton Company NYSE and Schlumberger Ltd NYSE accounted for the rest
Reasons for the Strike
Called by the Norwegian Union of Industry and Energy Workers or Industri Energi the union representing service firm employees the strike was implemented after wage talks broke down with the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
The oil companies maintained that they were not in a position to increase wage bills at a time when crude prices have more than halved in the last two years This prompted Industri Energi to take out more than 300 of its members employed with large subcontractors like Baker Hughes Schlumberger Halliburton and Oceaneering International Inc NYSE to the country s oil and gas industry
Strike Affecting Drilling Operations
The week long strike has taken its toll on drilling and well operations on the Norwegian Continental Shelf where Norway s entire oil reserves are located Incidentally Norway is the largest oil producing country in Europe
With offshore installation jobs shut down and rigs stopping operations due to the strike oil firms already financially challenged due to the commodity price rout have been forced to lay off personnel they no longer require to reduce losses
More Layoffs to Come
While the number of workers laid off as a result now exceeds the total who actually downed tools the Association terming the strikes as unnecessary fears more such extreme steps over the next few days
Where Do Zacks Investment Ideas Come From
You are welcome to download the full up to the minute list of 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy stocks free of charge There is no better place to start your own stock search Plus you can access the full list of must avoid Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sells and other private research
Today Zacks is promoting its Buy stock recommendations
About Zacks Equity Research
Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long term
Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1 150 publicly traded stocks Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance Recommendations and target prices are six month time horizons
Strong Stocks that Should Be in the News
Many are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar They re virtually unknown to the general public Yet today s 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys were generated by the stock picking system that has nearly tripled the market from 1988 through 2015 Its average gain has been a stellar 26 per year
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss
This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
HAL | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Halliburton Schlumberger Weatherford International Diamond Offshore Drilling And Transocean | For Immediate Release
Chicago IL October 13 2016 Zacks com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets Stocks recently featured in the blog include Halliburton NYSE HAL Co NYSE Schlumberger Ltd NYSE Weatherford International plc NYSE Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc NYSE DO NYSE andTransocean Ltd NYSE RIG NYSE
Today Zacks is promoting its Buy stock recommendations
Here are highlights from Wednesday s Analyst Blog
U S Rig Count Increases for 4th Consecutive Month
Baker Hughes recently declared the rig count for Sep 2016 In the U S the total number of rigs increased from the Aug 2016 count owing to higher number of land rigs This represents the fourth consecutive increase in the U S monthly rig count
Analysis of the Data
North AmericaRig Count
Total rig count in North America U S and Canada for the month of Sep 2016 was 650 higher than the Aug 2016 count of 610 but lower than 1 031 in Sep 2015
U S rig Total number of rigs in the U S was 509 higher than 481 rigs in August but much lower than 848 in Sep 2015
Of the total U S rigs land rigs were 491 This is higher than the 464 rigs in Aug 2016 but much lesser than 816 rigs in Sep 2015
The number of U S offshore rigs for Sep 2016 was 18 up from 17 rigs in August but down from 32 in Sep 2015
Canada rig In Canada the total rig count was 141 higher than 129 rigs in Aug 2016 but much lower than 183 counted in Sep 2015
International Rig Count
Total international rig offshore and land count for the month of September came in at 934 down by three from Aug and sharply below the 1 140 count in Sep 2015
Offshore rig The offshore rig count for Sep 2016 was 221 slightly lower than 228 in August and 268 in the prior year comparable month
Land Rig The land rig count was 713 higher than the Aug 2016 count of 709 but lower than the Sep 2015 count of 872
Conclusion
The Baker Hughes data issued since 1944 is as an important yardstick for energy service providers in gauging the overall business environment of the oil and gas industry Baker Hughes currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see
An increase or decrease in the Baker Hughes rotary rig count heavily weighs on demand for oil energy services drilling completion production etc provided by companies that include names like Halliburton Co NYSE Schlumberger Ltd NYSE Weatherford International plc NYSE Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc NYSE and Transocean Ltd NYSE
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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long term
Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1 150 publicly traded stocks Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance Recommendations and target prices are six month time horizons
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
C | European stocks rally to close higher DAX adds 3 2 | Investing com European stocks closed higher in Friday trade on hopes for a resolution to the region s debt threat after the swearing in of a new Greek leader and Italian Senate passage of a package of austerity measures aimed at securing financial assistance At the end of Friday s European session the STOXX 50 Index strengthened by 3 10 to 2 324 81 France s CAC 40 surged 2 76 to 3 348 63 Britain s FTSE 100 advanced 1 85 to 5 545 38 while Germany s DAX gained 3 22 to close at 6 057 03 The Italian Senate approved by a vote of 156 to 12 to approve the budget cutting measures promised to the European Union in exchange for assistance in reining in the country s national debt of USD2 6 trillion Yields on Italy s 10 year bonds fell for the second day after rising to record levels earlier in the week nearing the 7 threshold that prompted Ireland Portugal and Greece to seek bailouts Passage of the measure was expected to be a precursor to the appointment of former European Union commissioner and economist Mario Monti to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi And In Athens Lucas Papademos was sworn in as the country s new prime minister to replace outgoing Greek leader George Papandreou adding further stability to a scenario of European debt progress French shares performed strongly a day after rating s agency Standard Poor said that it had not reduced France s debt rating from its current AAA clarifying an earlier transmission to subscribers as a technical error S P said France remained on its highest investment grade with a stable outlook BNP Paribas SA leapt 5 6 AXA SA advanced 3 97 and Societe Generale SA added 4 17 Other financials making gains included Commerzbank AG up 3 96 Deutsche Bank AG rose 4 45 Lloyds Banking Group climbed 6 13 and Royal Bank of Scotland Group added 6 45 Italian banks posted even more impressive gains following Senate passage of the belt tightening measures UniCredit SpA closed up 5 43 Intesa Sanpaolo SpA skyrocketed 8 82 and Banco Popolare SC jumped 5 01 Italian telecom giant Telecom Italia SpA jumped 5 3 after the company announced a 13 gain in revenue for the third quarter Vivendi added 2 after the company announced that its Universal Music Group unit had reached agreement to purchase recorded music assets of EMI Group from Citigroup Inc for USD1 9 billion Meanwhile in mid day trade on Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2 12 to 12 145 90 the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2 01 to 2 678 03 and the S P 500 was higher by 1 94 to 1 263 72 |
C | Crude Oil Falls by 1 79 Amid Turmoil in Cyprus | US Stock MarketWall Street closed the trading day mixed after the Cypriot Parliament rejected the bank deposit levy increasing investors anxiety about the possibility of the country going bankrupt The Dow Jones gained by 0 05 the NASDAQ declined by 0 26 and the S P 500 lost 0 24 Citigroup fell by 1 77 closing at 45 80 Technically according to the 4 hour chart the S P has a strong support level at 1 530 should the index break below this level it could hit the 1 523 support level The trend for the NASDAQ will remain strongly bullish as long as the index trades above the support level of 2 750 US Dollar USD The US Dollar rose against most of the major currencies amid anxiety about the economic crisis in the Eurozone which pushed investors towards the safe haven greenback Building Permits came out as expected at 0 95M Today s Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain unchanged at 0 25 The FOMC Economic Projections and the FOMC Statement should be released today GoldGold gained by 0 46 closing at 1 613 an ounce Technically according to the 4 hour chart the precious metal is keeping its positive momentum and is expected to test the resistance level of 1 619 The fact that the RSI indicator is holding above 50 supports the bullish trend Last 1611Resistance 1619 1634 1653Support 1601 1595 1576Crude OilCrude Oil fell by 1 79 closing at 92 50 a barrel in response to the turmoil in Cyprus Technically Oil is expected to maintain the bearish trend and retest the support level of 91 90 should the commodity break below this level it could again move towards the next support level at 91 60 Crude Oil Inventories are expected to come out at 1 80M vs 2 60M previously Last 92 65Resistance 92 90 93 60 94 30Support 92 30 91 90 91 60Euro EUR The euro dropped versus the US Dollar after Cyprus rejected the European Union s proposal to levy taxes on bank deposits The German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out at 48 50 better than the expected 47 90 Technically the trend for the EUR USD is strongly bearish The EUR USD has broken the support level of 1 2880 and the pair will keep its negative momentum possibly moving towards the support level of 1 2700 should it hold above the support level of 1 2800 and should the RSI Indicator hold below 50 The German PPI is expected to come out at 0 20 vs 0 80 previously the Current Account at 7 90B vs 13 90B previously Last 1 2875Resistance 1 2920 1 2975 1 3030Support 1 2850 1 2770 1 2700British Pound GBP The Pound finished the trading day unchanged versus the US Dollar as the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Cyprus pushed investors towards safe haven UK assets The CPI was released as expected at 2 80 and the PPI Input came out better than expected at 3 20 vs 1 70 Technically the Pound is trading in a channel between the support level of 1 5070 and the resistance level of 1 5175 should the GBP USD break this level it could move towards to the next support level of 1 4920 Today the Claimant Count Change is expected to come out at 5 20K vs 12 50K previously The MPC Meeting Minutes and the Annual Budget should be released today Last 1 5095Resistance 1 5140 1 5175 1 5220Support 1 5075 1 5000 1 4910Canadian Dollar CAD The Canadian Dollar declined versus the US Dollar after Manufacturing Sales came out worse than expected at 0 20 vs 0 70 Technically according to the four hour chart using Fibonacci Retracement the pair has finished the expected retracement should the pair cross above the resistance level of 1 0280 it could move towards the 1 0330 level No important economic data is expected to be released in Canada today Last 1 0265Resistance 1 0280 1 0315 1 0345Support 1 0220 1 0180 1 0110 |
C | Gold And Silver Up Can Momentum Last | Comex Gold Futures shot up to a fresh three week high above 1615 on renewed safe have demand but Comex silver prices stole the show by rising 1 30 to around 29 31 after many days of swinging aimlessly and trading sideways and choppy Both the Precious Metals are close to stiff technical resistance levels and may turn back if further momentum and follow up buying is not seen Most of the rally seen till now has been on short covering and no major fresh formation of longs has been reported till now The near term charts for gold and silver look nasty indicating a fresh downside may be around the corner This remains the main concern on the future of the price rally in gold and silver If follow up buying is seen gold prices could rise close to 1675 and silver to at least 32 their next resistance levels Fewer Americans than forecast filed first time claims for unemployment insurance last week a signal the U S labor market is maintaining its recent progress Applications for jobless benefits increased by 2 000 to 336 000 in the week ended March 16 Fed Chairman Bernanke said yesterday at the press conference that policy makers need to see persistent strength in the labor market One thing we would need to be sure is that this is not a temporary improvement Bernanke said An improvement criterion is not just the improvement we have seen but is it going to be sustained Cyprus Crisis not Big enough yet for Gold and Silver ECB now gives Ultimatum The Cyprus Bailout deal and financial crisis has still not been resolved and Cypriot banks remain closed until next week Russia and Euro zone both remain watchful of the situation and any further escalation of crisis could pave an exit for Cyprus from the euro zone There are worries about contagion spreading to other economically weak European nations like Greece Spain or Italy The messy situation is slightly bullish for the safe haven gold and silver market North Korea issued fresh threats of a possible nuclear strike against U S bases in Japan Any escalation in tensions between the U S and North Korea could also send investors into safe haven assets like gold and silver The FOMC left its monetary policy unchanged as widely expected and does not provide much trigger for momentum on either side for the Gold and Silver market The loose monetary policy is giving Gold Prices some support however gold still needs a major catalyst if it has to break through the short term resistance The situation in Cyprus has yet not proven a catalyst enough for any further gains in gold and silver The ECB said it may cut Cypriot banks off from emergency funds after March 25 as the island nation s president Nicos Anastasiades pursued options at home and in Russia to stave off financial collapse The ECB s Governing Council said today that so called emergency liquidity assistance or ELA could only be considered after Monday if an aid program from the Euro area and International Monetary Fund that would ensure the solvency of the concerned banks is in place With this statement the ECB put even more pressure on European finance ministers and the Cypriot government to come up with a deal said Juergen Michels chief euro area economist at Citigroup Inc in London But we ll have to see whether they ll actually follow through with their threat if there s no deal by Monday and policy makers decide to further extend the bank holiday India Gold Imports may rise to New Highs WGC A top WGC official Somasundaram P R Managing Director of the World Gold Council for India said Gold consumption in India the world s largest Gold consumer may climb near 1000 tons this year India s recent efforts to discourage gold consumption will not affect gold s cause he said and consumption may total 865 metric tons to 960 tons this year compared with 864 2 tons in 2012 India is planning to offer Inflation protected bonds for the first time in 15 years next month to dampen gold demand and offer a hedge against inflation Gold is a critical and predominant form of saving in rural India which makes up about 70 of the population Hong Kong s HKMEx to launch Yuan traded Gold and Silver Contracts According to William Barkshire co president of the Hong Kong mercantile exchange HKMEx is planning to launch Yuan denominated Gold Silver and Copper contracts this year He said price benchmarks that accurately reflect the structural shift in commodities consumption from developed Western nations to emerging Asian countries such as China and India are lacking China is the world s largest Copper market However there continues to be a mismatch between the price of copper traded domestically in China and the international price established at the London Metal Exchange in the UK Barkshire said What China needs is an internationally traded benchmark contract for pricing copper and that s exactly what HKMEx has set out to accomplish he added At the same time the Gold and Silver contracts will provide international users with exposure hedging benefits while mitigating foreign exchange risk HKMEx has been trading two Precious Metal contracts since May 2011 a 32 ounce gold futures contract and a 1 000 ounce silver contract both denominated in US dollars with physical delivery in Hong Kong Interest in Physical Silver Bullion ETF on the rise Short term speculative positioning in the silver futures market saw positions reduced by 79 between the end of January and end of February which is equal to a reduction of 3 700 metric tons of Silver sold via the futures market This selling masked the strong inflows into silver ETFs which were up 4 3 to a record of 19 736 tons according to Bloomberg data A number of ETF investors have evidently shifted from gold to Silver in recent weeks as they consider silver investment cheap at a gold silver ratio of well above 53 and see more price potential in silver given the economic prospects US Bullion Coin Sales in March Exactly one week ago American Silver Eagle bullion coins crossed the 12 million milestone for 2013 The 99 9 fine Silver Coins debuted in 1986 and had never even achieved annual sales of 12 million until 2008 And until last week the 12 million mark had never been reached so soon into a year On Monday the bullion coins topped 13 million in sales The latest milestone is a first through the first three months of a year In 2012 the Silver Eagles did not hit 13 million in sales until May 16 The achievements this year are more impressive considering sales had been suspended in mid January due to exhausted inventories The U S Mint resumed sales by the end of that month but continues to limit the amount its distributors may order Base Metals on the move as Economy prospects Improve Base Metals have been hammered earlier in the weak and found some solace yesterday on the HSBC provisional Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing in China The PMI climbed unexpectedly to 51 7 in March from 50 4 in February which suggests that economic activity in China picked up noticeably after the country s New Year festivities There is yet some scope for a downside spike but I feel that this will be utilized for opportunistic buying as all indicators show oversold conditions |
JPM | Who not where For HSBC investors HQ debate eclipsed by identity issue | By Sinead Cruise and Lawrence White LONDON HONG KONG Reuters As HSBC L HSBA prepares to decide which country it should call home a growing number of its investors want the bank to address a bigger question what does it really want to be HSBC s board is due to meet later this month and is expected to discuss whether it should quit its UK headquarters and shift overseas with Hong Kong seen as the most likely alternative But for investors analysts and some HSBC executives the real debate underlying this decision is whether it wants to continue to be a global corporate lending giant with a large investment banking and trading business or become a simpler Asia focused trading and retail bank If the former is the case London as a major financial trading center with a favorable time zone is the more obvious choice some say Otherwise it should abandon a country with one of the toughest regulatory regimes globally and return to Asia where the bank was born more than 150 years ago Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver has already led a drive to slim down Europe s biggest bank pulling it out of 78 countries or businesses since 2011 But concerns linger about high costs lackluster returns and how to adapt to a regulatory framework hostile to global banks It is a bigger issue than just where to have the HQ said one of HSBC s top 15 investors speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue Being a global bank has to have benefits for large corporate clients but that does not mean that HSBC has to offer all services to all clients in all areas An HSBC spokeswoman commenting on the HQ issue and future strategy referred to the bank s third quarter results statement in November when it said the domicile review would focus on long term perspectives as opposed to short term factors An announcement on domicile will be made when the board makes its final decision and if necessary a further update will be provided at the time of the full year results announcement in late February she said CHINA PAIN Last June HSBC looked set to be opting for the narrower Asian option when it unveiled its Asia pivot strategy a plan to redeploy up to 230 billion in assets saved from cuts elsewhere to the region and the urban sprawl of China s Pearl River Delta in particular But seven months on the region s markets and economy look anything but welcoming As Chinese growth has slowed perceived missteps by the authorities have stoked concerns in global markets that Beijing might be losing its grip on economic policy China s benchmark Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index CSI300 has tumbled around 16 percent since the start of the year They HSBC first need to decide what they want to be then they can figure out which jurisdiction suits them best If that business model is Asian then fine a move makes sense said Barrington Pitt Miller equity analyst at U S fund firm Janus Capital who said the Chinese slowdown had raised a big question mark about the bank s business plan But if you decide you want to be global then I m not sure the next two generations of senior non Asian stakeholders customers capital providers regulators and employees will be ready to embrace that change of domicile A senior source inside HSBC said the turmoil in Chinese stock markets is viewed by Gulliver as a short term issue and should not influence a 50 year decision about its headquarters But if the company shifted base the cost of raising capital from Europe and the United States through bonds may rise say analysts Should it play out that investors are more nervous around the name under a new non UK domicile then the bank might have to pay a bigger premium for the so called increased risk of being a quote unquote emerging market name said Oliver Judd a senior credit analyst at Aviva L AV Investors which owns HSBC bonds UNIVERSAL PROBLEMS Meanwhile the senior HSBC source said plentiful liquidity for companies in Asia and worse than expected economic performance in China and Southeast Asia had made finding profitable lending opportunities difficult The slowing growth in particular could spell trouble for HSBC in China potentially causing the bank s bad loan ratio in the country to more than double from 0 6 percent to 1 4 percent by the end of 2016 JPMorgan N JPM analysts wrote in a Jan 6 note Ratings agency Moody s also warned of considerable downside risk from a material slowdown in China Asia accounted for over 60 percent of the bank s pre tax profits in the first nine months of 2015 and around 78 percent in 2014 according to the note published on Monday If HSBC opts to stick with London though many of the issues that prompted it to announce its headquarters review last April will still be there despite Britain largely scrapping a hefty levy on bank balance sheets London is an obvious choice if HSBC is to remain a universal bank that combines standard deposit taking and lending with more sophisticated investment banking activity But Britain s tough ring fencing regulation and the requirement for ever thicker capital safety cushions mean the universal banking strategy is increasingly expensive for banks to pursue HSBC has responded by pulling back from some of its non core activities but some investors say its board should go further and pick a region to be champion in once and for all
HSBC is a collection of businesses which don t necessarily fit very well together and the board will be under considerable pressure to start splitting them up if they don t do something more for shareholders sooner rather than later said Ali Miremadi a fund manager at THS Partners another HSBC investor |
BMY | Is Bristol Myers Squibb BMY A Good Stock To Pick Now | Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment After all who wouldn t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process Let s put Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value oriented investors right now or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks PE RatioA key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio or PE for short This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock s current PE ratio with a where this ratio has been in the past b how it compares to the average for the industry sector and c how it compares to the market as a whole On this front Bristol Myers Squibb has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 15 21 as you can see in the chart below This level actually compares pretty favorably with the market at large as the PE for the S P 500 compares in at about 20 57 If we focus on the stock s long term PE trend the current level Bristol Myers Squibb puts current PE ratio below its midpoint which is 20 18 over the past five years Also the stock s PE compares favorably with the Zacks Medical sector s trailing twelve months PE ratio which stands at 23 48 At the very least this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now compared to its peers We should also point out that Bristol Myers Squibb has a forward PE ratio price relative to this year s earnings of 10 90 so it is fair to say that a slightly more value oriented path may be ahead for the stock in the near term too P CF RatioAn often overlooked ratio that can still be a great indicator of value is the price cash flow metric This ratio doesn t take amortization and depreciation into account so can give a more accurate picture of the financial health in a business This is a preferred metric to some valuation investors because cash flows are a generally less prone to manipulation by the company s management and b are less affected by variation in accounting policies between different companies The ratio is generally applied to find out whether a company s stock is overpriced or underpriced with reference to its cash flows generation potential compared with its competitors However it is not commonly used for cross industry comparison as the average price to cash flow ratio varies from industry to industry In this case Bristol Myers Squibb s P CF ratio of 12 90 is lower than the Zacks Large Cap Pharma industry average of 19 35 which indicates that the stock is somewhat undervalued in this respect Broad Value OutlookIn aggregate Bristol Myers Squibb currently has a Value Style Score of A putting it into the top 20 of all stocks we cover from this look This makes BMY a solid choice for value investors and some of its other metrics make it clear too For example the PEG ratio for Bristol Myers Squibb is just 0 82 a level that is considerably lower than the industry average of 1 95 The PEG ratio is a modified PE ratio that takes into account the stock s earnings growth rate What About the Stock Overall
Though Bristol Myers Squibb might be a good choice for value investors there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name In particular it is worth noting that the company has a Growth grade of B and a Momentum score of D This gives BMY a VGM score or its overarching fundamental grade of A You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores Meanwhile the company s recent earnings estimates have been encouraging The current quarter has seen two estimates go higher in the past sixty days compared to none lower while current year estimate has seen three upward and no downward revision in the same time period This has had a noticeable impact on the consensus estimate as the current quarter consensus estimate has climbed 1 1 in the past two months while current year estimate has inched up 0 2 in the same time period You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price and Consensus This bullish trend is why the stock boasts a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and why we are expecting outperformance from the company in the near term Bottom LineBristol Myers Squibb is an inspired choice for value investors as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front With a formidable industry rank among the Top 21 and strong Zacks Rank Bristol Myers Squibb looks like a strong value contender In fact over the past one year the sector has clearly underperformed the broader market as you can see below So it might pay for value investors to delve deeper into the company s prospects as fundamentals indicate that this stock could be a compelling pick Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys They deem these tickers Most Likely for Early Price Pops Since 1988 the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of 24 6 per year So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention |
BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Flat As Market Gains What You Should Know | Bristol Myers Squibb BMY closed the most recent trading day at 67 43 making no change from the previous trading session This change lagged the S P 500 s daily gain of 0 03 Meanwhile the Dow lost 0 03 and the Nasdaq a tech heavy index added 0 14
Heading into today shares of the biopharmaceutical company had gained 6 76 over the past month outpacing the Medical sector s gain of 0 81 and the S P 500 s gain of 3 23 in that time
Investors will be hoping for strength from BMY as it approaches its next earnings release which is expected to be February 6 2020 In that report analysts expect BMY to post earnings of 0 96 per share This would mark year over year growth of 2 13 Meanwhile the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of 6 14 billion up 2 75 from the year ago period
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for BMY These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short term business trends As such positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the company s business and profitability
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near term share price momentum We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear actionable rating model
The Zacks Rank system which ranges from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell has an impressive outside audited track record of outperformance with 1 stocks generating an average annual return of 25 since 1988 Within the past 30 days our consensus EPS projection has moved 0 33 higher BMY is holding a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy right now
Looking at its valuation BMY is holding a Forward P E ratio of 11 02 This represents a discount compared to its industry s average Forward P E of 16 11
We can also see that BMY currently has a PEG ratio of 0 82 This metric is used similarly to the famous P E ratio but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock s expected earnings growth rate The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 1 97 as of yesterday s close
The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 52 putting it in the top 21 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank includes is listed in order from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
Be sure to follow all of these stock moving metrics and many more on Zacks com |
BMY | 5 Stocks Near A 52 Week High That Can Scale Higher | Investors often use a 52 week high as a parameter for stock selection This is because stocks near that level are perceived as winners However the high price often compels investors to wonder whether the stock is trading at a premium While the speculations are not completely baseless all stocks at a 52 week high are not overpriced In fact investors might lose out on top gainers in an attempt to avoid the steep prices A good stock can maintain the momentum and keep scaling new highs So more information on a stock is necessary to understand whether there is scope for further upside Here we discuss a strategy to find the right stocks on basics of momentum investing which follows the buy high sell higher technique 52 Week High A Good IndicatorMany a time stocks hitting a 52 week high fail to scale higher despite potential This is because investors fear that the stocks are overvalued and apprehend a crash In fact overvaluation is natural for most of these stocks as investors focus or willingness to pay premium has helped them reach the level But that does not always indicate an impending decline Factors such as robust sales surging profit levels earnings growth prospects and strategic acquisitions that encouraged investors to bet on these stocks could keep them motivated if there is no tangible negative In other words the momentum might continue Also when a string of positive developments dominates the market investors find their under reaction unwarranted even if there are no company specific driving forces Setting the Right FiltersWe ran a screen to zero in on 52 week high stocks trading near the high level that hold tremendous upside potential The screen includes parameters to shortlist stocks with strong earnings growth expectations sturdy value metrics and price momentum Moreover the screen filters stocks that are relatively undervalued compared to their peers in terms of earnings as well as sales ensuring continuation of their rally for some time Current Price 52 Week High 80This is the ratio between the current price and the highest price at which the stock has traded in the past 52 weeks A value greater than 0 8 implies that the stock is trading within 20 of its 52 week high range Change Price 4 Weeks 0It ensures that the stock price has moved north over the past four weeks Change Price 12 Weeks 0This metric guarantees a continued upward price momentum for the stock over the past three months as well Price Sales XIndMedThe lower the better P E using F 1 Estimate XIndMedThis metric measures the amount an investor puts into a company to obtain one dollar of earnings It narrows down the list of stocks to those that are undervalued compared to the industry One Year EPS Growth F 1 F 0 XIndMedThis helps choose stocks that have higher growth rates than the industry This is a meaningful indicator as decent earnings growth adds to investor optimism Zacks Rank 2No screening is complete without Zacks Rank which has proved its worth since inception It is a fundamental truth that stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy or 2 Buy have always managed to brave adversities and beat the market You can see Current Price 5This parameter will help screen stocks that are trading at 5 or higher Volume 20 days shares 100000Inclusion of this metric ensures that there is a substantial volume of shares so trading is easier Here are five of the 34 stocks that made it through the screen Fremont CA based SYNNEX NYSE SNX is a leading business process services company The company provides a comprehensive range of distribution logistics and integration services for the technology industry and outsourced services focused on customer engagement to a broad range of enterprises Currently carrying a Zacks Rank 1 the company has a trailing four quarter positive surprise of 10 55 on average Ichor Holdings Ltd NASDAQ ICHR is engaged in the design engineering and manufacture of fluid delivery subsystems and components for semiconductor capital equipment It primarily offers gas and chemical delivery subsystems that are used in the manufacturing of semiconductor devices Currently sporting a Zacks Rank 1 the company has an average positive surprise of 16 67 for the last four quarters Tech Data Corporation NASDAQ TECD is a Clearwater FL based wholesale distributor of information technology products logistics management and other value added services The company distributes and markets more than 150 000 products from above 600 manufacturers and publishers This Zacks Rank 2 company has a four quarter positive earnings surprise of 7 45 on average Tempe AZ based Insight Enterprises Inc NASDAQ NSIT is a global direct marketer of brand name computers hardware and software The company markets to small and medium sized businesses through a combination of a strong outbound telemarketing sales force electronic commerce electronic marketing and direct mail catalogs Currently carrying a Zacks Rank 2 the company has an average positive surprise of 12 52 for the last four quarters New York based Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY is a global specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of treatments targeting serious diseases Its key oncology products include Opdivo Sprycel Yervoy and Empliciti The company came up with an average four quarter positive earnings surprise of 8 3 and carries a Zacks Rank 2 You can get the rest of the stocks on this list by signing up now for your 2 week free trial to the Research Wizard and start using this screen in your own trading Further you can also create your own strategies and test them first before taking the investment plunge The Research Wizard is a great place to begin It s easy to use Everything is in plain language And it s very intuitive Start your trial to the Research Wizard today And the next time you read an economic report open up the Research Wizard plug your finds in and see what gems come out Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material Disclosure Performance information for Zacks portfolios and strategies are available at |
HAL | Halliburton Co Upgraded To Buy By Vetr Inc | Halliburton Company NYSE HAL was upgraded by equities research analysts at from a hold rating to a buy rating in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday reports The brokerage currently has a 42 96 price objective on the oilfield services company s stock s price target would suggest a potential upside of 4 91 from the company s current price
Several other equities research analysts also recently weighed in on HAL Zacks Investment Research upgraded Halliburton from a sell rating to a hold rating in a research note on Monday May 30th Credit Suisse Group AG restated a buy rating on shares of Halliburton in a research note on Thursday June 2nd Susquehanna restated a positive rating and set a 55 00 price objective up previously from 47 00 on shares of Halliburton in a research note on Monday June 13th Howard Weil upped their price objective on Halliburton from 37 00 to 45 00 and gave the company a sector perform rating in a research note on Wednesday June 15th Finally Scotiabank restated a sector perform rating and set a 45 00 price objective up previously from 37 00 on shares of Halliburton in a research note on Wednesday June 15th Two research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating nine have issued a hold rating twenty six have issued a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company s stock Halliburton currently has a consensus rating of Buy and a consensus price target of 46 65
Shares of Halliburton NYSE HAL traded down 1 04 on Tuesday reaching 40 95 The company s stock had a trading volume of 11 842 888 shares The stock has a 50 day moving average price of 43 38 and a 200 day moving average price of 41 72 Halliburton has a 1 year low of 27 64 and a 1 year high of 46 90 The company s market capitalization is 35 26 billion
Halliburton NYSE HAL last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday July 20th The oilfield services company reported 0 14 earnings per share EPS for the quarter beating the Zacks consensus estimate of 0 19 by 0 05 Halliburton had a positive return on equity of 3 55 and a negative net margin of 30 50 The firm earned 3 84 billion during the quarter compared to the consensus estimate of 3 76 billion During the same quarter in the previous year the business earned 0 44 earnings per share The firm s quarterly revenue was down 35 2 compared to the same quarter last year On average equities research analysts forecast that Halliburton will post 0 17 EPS for the current year
The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend which will be paid on Wednesday September 28th Stockholders of record on Wednesday September 7th will be issued a 0 18 dividend The ex dividend date of this dividend is Friday September 2nd This represents a 0 72 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1 76 Halliburton s payout ratio is currently 10 86
Hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in the company Johnson Financial Group Inc increased its position in Halliburton by 51 3 in the second quarter Johnson Financial Group Inc now owns 2 277 shares of the oilfield services company s stock valued at 103 000 after buying an additional 772 shares during the last quarter Quadrant Capital Group LLC increased its position in Halliburton by 17 5 in the second quarter Quadrant Capital Group LLC now owns 2 542 shares of the oilfield services company s stock valued at 104 000 after buying an additional 379 shares during the last quarter Manchester Capital Management LLC increased its position in Halliburton by 0 4 in the second quarter Manchester Capital Management LLC now owns 2 354 shares of the oilfield services company s stock valued at 107 000 after buying an additional 9 shares during the last quarter Citizens Financial Group Inc RI increased its position in Halliburton by 33 4 in the second quarter Citizens Financial Group Inc RI now owns 2 589 shares of the oilfield services company s stock valued at 117 000 after buying an additional 648 shares during the last quarter Finally Harel Insurance Investments Financial Services Ltd acquired a new position in Halliburton during the second quarter valued at approximately 120 000 Institutional investors and hedge funds own 79 64 of the company s stock
About Halliburton
Halliburton Company NYSE HAL is a provider of services and products to the upstream oil and natural gas industry The Company operates through two segments the Completion and Production segment and the Drilling and Evaluation segment The Company s Completion and Production segment delivers cementing stimulation intervention pressure control specialty chemicals artificial lift and completion products and services |
JPM | Top 5 Things to Know In the Market on Thursday | Investing com Here are the top five things you need to know in financial markets on Thursday January 14
1 Brent oil turns higher after falling further below 30
Brent oil futures turned higher after falling below the 30 level on Thursday amid ongoing concerns over a global supply glut Oversupply issue will be exacerbated further once Iran returns to the global oil market after western imposed sanctions are lifted
Brent sank to a session low of 29 70 a barrel a level not seen since January 2004 before recovering to trade at 30 48 by 11 05GMT or 6 05AM ET up 30 cents or 0 98
U S crude rose 30 cents or 1 to 30 79 Nymex oil tumbled to 29 93 on Tuesday the lowest level since December 2003
2 China stocks regain footing after flirting with bear market
China shares briefly fell to bear market territory on Thursday before recovering in the afternoon in yet another volatile session
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2 to 3 007 65 after falling as much as 2 8 in earlier trading The index briefly fell more than 20 from its recent high on December 22 meeting the technical definition of a bear market
The rest of Asia closed mostly lower amid a renewed slide in oil prices and following an uninspiring handoff from Wall Street overnight Japan s Nikkei 225 tumbled 2 7 while markets in Hong Kong and Australia both closed in the red
3 Europe stock markets plunge to 1 year low on oil China jitters
European stock markets slumped on Thursday as investors continued to fret about the ongoing selloff in oil prices and choppy action in Chinese markets
Market sentiment was also hit by reports of a series of deadly bomb blasts in the Indonesian capital Jakarta
Germany s DAX lost 2 5 France s CAC 40 was down 2 8 while London s FTSE 100 sank 1 9
4 Wall Street points to weak open ahead of JP Morgan earnings
U S stock futures pointed to a weak open on Thursday as traders looked to earnings season
JPMorgan N JPM is set to kick off the start of bank earnings season with fourth quarter results at 11 45GMT or 6 45AM ET The bank is projected to report earnings of 1 28 a share on revenue of 23 24 billion
U S stocks sank on Wednesday pushing the S P 500 to close below 1 900 for the first time since September as investors grew anxious about weak energy prices U S corporate earnings and the global economy
5 Bank of England Super Thursday
The Bank of England will release its rate decision and minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting at 12 00GMT or 7 00AM ET on Thursday Last month the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 1 to keep rates on hold at a record low 0 5
Expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England have been pushed back to late 2016 due to a recent spate of weaker than expected data and amid uncertainty over a referendum on whether or not Britain should stay in the European Union |
JPM | JP Morgan reports better than forecast Q4 earnings | Investing com JP Morgan Chase N JPM the largest U S bank reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings and revenue ahead of Thursday s opening bell boosted by strength in its investment banking division
JP Morgan said adjusted earnings per share came in at 1 35 in the three months ended December 31 up from 1 19 a share a year earlier and above expectations for adjusted earnings of 1 28 a share
The bank s revenue totaled 24 7 billion beating estimates for revenue of 23 24 billion
Jamie Dimon Chairman and CEO commented on the financial results We had a good quarter as 2015 came to a close The businesses generated strong loan growth and credit quality except for some stress in energy The consumer business continues to gather deposits outpacing the industry Markets were somewhat quieter and we saw the impact reflected in the results of our trading and Asset Management businesses
Traders will now turn their attention to the bank s conference call due to start at 8 30 a m Eastern Time
Following the release of the report shares in JPM rose 33 cents or 0 58 in pre market trade to trade at 57 71 from Wednesday s closing price of 57 38
Meanwhile U S equity markets pointed to a lower open The Dow futures pointed to a drop of 25 points or 0 15 the S P 500 futures shed 4 points or 0 2 while the Nasdaq 100 futures inched up 0 05 |
JPM | Top 5 things to know today | Investing com Brent higher after falling below 30Brent oil futures turned higher after falling below the 30 level on Thursday amid ongoing concerns over a supply glut and the global economy
China stocks regain footing China shares briefly fell before recovering in the afternoon in yet another volatile session and the yuan weakened despite the central bank fixing the midpoint rate firmer
European markets plunge to 1 year lowsEuropean stock markets slumped on Thursday as investors continued to fret about the ongoing selloff in oil prices and choppy action in Chinese markets
Wall Street points to weak open U S stock futures pointed to a weak open on Thursday as traders looked to earnings season with JPMorgan N JPM set to report fourth quarter results
Bank of England Super Thursday The Bank of England is expected to indicate that interest rates will remain on hold for longer after its monetary policy meeting |
JPM | J P Morgan s earnings beat expectations hit annual record | Investing com J P Morgan Chase Co the largest U S bank by assets reported better than expected fourth quarter profit as a tight lid on expenses and a smaller legal bill offset sluggish revenue growth
The bank said fourth quarter profit rose 10 to 5 43 billion or 1 32 a share Analysts had expected earnings of 1 25 a share
Revenue rose around 1 to 23 75 billion also beating expectations
For the year J P Morgan earned 24 44 billion the second straight year of record annual earnings
Shares in J P Morgan Chase N JPM were up more than 1 after the open on Wall Street |
JPM | Exclusive Progress Software exploring sale sources | Reuters Business software company Progress Software Corp is considering a sale as part of an exploration of strategic alternatives and has spoken to private equity firms about a potential deal according to people familiar with the matter Progress Software is working with investment bank JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM on a limited auction process that was open to only a small number of buyout firms the people said this week A leveraged buyout would be challenging because of the choppy debt markets and there is no certainty the company s negotiations with potential buyers will lead to any deal the people said The sources asked not to be identified because the sale process is confidential Progress Software and JPMorgan declined to comment |
JPM | Energy leads Wall Street rebound volume strong | NEW YORK Reuters U S stocks rebounded on Thursday as investors snapped up battered shares including those in the energy sector while financials rose after upbeat results from JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM The Dow Jones industrial average DJI rose 226 34 points or 1 4 percent to 16 377 75 the S P 500 SPX gained 31 48 points or 1 67 percent to 1 921 76 and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC added 88 94 points or 1 97 percent to 4 615 00 Close to 10 billion shares were traded in U S exchanges the most for any day in nearly a month |
BMY | Retirees Should Know These 3 Facts About Required Minimum Distributions January 13 2020 | Failing to withdraw a required minimum distribution RMD from your own or an inherited IRA by the deadline results in a big tax code penalty 50 That s right If you were supposed to take out a minimum of 4 000 and oops did not do so you have the privilege of writing the IRS a check for 2 000 It s important to remember that the rules related to RMDs changed on January 1 2020
Like the majority of investors you re most likely working on a retirement portfolio that will provide a large enough nest egg to give you a comfortable retirement Retirement financial planners refer to this as the accumulation phase Your goal in this phase is to choose investments with long term growth potential for example a current top ranked dividend stock like Bristol Myers Squibb BMY
But there is a second phase of retirement planning that gets less attention even though it s the more enjoyable part It s the distribution phase which simply means spending the assets you ve worked so hard to accumulate
Planning for the distribution phase is the time where you may make decisions about where you ll want to live in retirement whether you ll want to travel hobbies you may pursue and other decisions that will affect your retirement spending
Along with those choices you need to be mindful of the RMD because it applies to the majority of retirement accounts This IRS rule requires you to withdraw a specific minimum amount from any qualified accounts you have when you reach a certain age previously it was 70 1 2 but beginning in 2020 it is 72
Why does the IRS require these distributions It s straightforward they need to ensure they get their tax In the event that this standard didn t exist individuals could live off other pay and never pay tax on their retirement investment returns So that cash could be left to family or companions as an inheritance without the IRS getting any taxes from you
The Most Important Things to Know About RMDs
Which types of accounts have RMDs Qualified retirement accounts such as IRAs 401 k s 457 plans and other tax deferred retirement savings plans like a TSP 403 b TSA SEP or SIMPLE IRA plan require withdrawals in retirement
When do I need to begin withdrawals For most accounts you should take your first distribution by April 1 of the year following the calendar year in which you turn 72 If you retire after 72 you must withdraw your first RMD from your 401 k profit sharing 403 b or other defined contribution plan by April 1 of the year following the calendar year that you retire
For each subsequent year after your required beginning date you must take your RMD by December 31 Note that you do not have to take an RMD on a Roth IRA since you paid taxes prior to contributing Other types of Roth accounts require RMDs However there are ways to avoid them For example you can roll your Roth 401 k into your Roth IRA
What happens if I don t take my RMD The penalty for not taking a required minimum distribution or not taking a large enough distribution is a 50 tax on the amount not withdrawn in time
How much money do I have to withdraw To calculate a specific RMD you must divide your prior year s December 31st retirement account balance by a distribution period factor based on your age
Here s an example to give you an idea of the math Ann is 71 and will take her first RMD in the year wherein she turns 72 Her IRA balance toward the end of the preceding year was 100 000 Her distribution period factor is 27 4 Dividing 100 000 by 27 4 equals 3 649 63 This is the amount Ann is required to withdraw for the calendar year in which she turns 72
Learning about the distribution phase is just one aspect of preparing for your nest egg years
To learn more about the tax implications of retirement spending and much more about retirement planning download our free guide Retirement Made Easy You find useful detailed steps to help you navigate both the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement planning Get Your FREE Guide Now |
BMY | The Extreme Risks Of Trading Your Own Retirement Assets January 13 2020 | You have a significant retirement portfolio You re an experienced investor You ve done pretty well at picking stocks You probably even own a few of Zacks Top Retirement stock picks like
Bristol Myers Squibb BMY First Financial Corp THFF and Sandy Spring Bancorp SASR
If this sounds like you then here s a question With your background and skills should you manage your own retirement investments
Perhaps if you re the one in a million investor who can expertly manage risk and maintain unflinching emotional control in volatile markets But for most there may be better strategies to achieve long term retirement investing goals
Active stock trading requires a very different investing approach and risk reward mindset than investing for retirement
Managing Retirement Investments Stock Picking vs Diversification
While stock picking can potentially generate outsized returns its excessive concentrated risk can present huge perils for retirement investors
A study done by Hendrik Bessembinder of equity markets over nine decades found that just 4 of the best performing U S stocks generated all the market s gains The rest were flat the gains of the next 38 were wiped out by the bottom 58 which lost money
For even the most talented stock pickers the odds for long term success are slim
Is Successful Investing a Mind Game
Investors think they can make rational decisions but research shows that the opposite is often true A recent DALBAR study tracked investors from 1986 to 2015 and found that the average investor substantially underperformed compared to the S P 500 Over 30 years the S P 500 returned 10 35 but the average investor return was just 3 66
It is worth noting that this period included the 1987 crash and enormous bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and the positively trending market of the 1990s as well
This study suggests that one key reason for investor underperformance is trying to time volatile markets and that irrational behavior biases tend to compound investor mistakes
Curiously even experienced traders tend to underperform since they can t resist the emotional urge to make impulsive investment choices They might be overly self assured and miscalculate risk get attached to a price target or perceive a pattern that does not exist This behavioral fallacy over the long term can be disastrous with potential underperformance of a huge number of dollars disrupting your retirement
The Bottom Line for Retirement Investors
Your retirement portfolio should be managed with a strategy of performance over decades not days weeks or quarters Most self directed investors tend to fall short when it comes to long term results
Does that mean you should quit trading Not really One plan is to take 10 of your investable resources and trade to create alpha and look for outsized returns
But the point we re making here is that the money you have set aside for your retirement should be invested using a more conservative long term approach designed to produce reliable returns so you can steadily build assets and achieve your retirement goals
Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes
Whether you re planning to retire early or not don t let investing mistakes derail your plans
If you have 500 000 or more to invest and want to learn more click the link to download our free report 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement This report will help you steer clear of the most common mistakes like trying to time the market lack of diversification in your portfolio and many more Get Your FREE Guide Now |
HAL | Halliburton HAL Touches 52 Week High As Crude Rallies | Shares of Halliburton Company NYSE HAL hit a 52 week high of 46 90 on Aug 19 2016 Shares closed at 46 85 reflecting a solid return of 37 6 year to date The average trading volume for the last three months aggregated 8 710 253 shares Over the past 52 weeks the company s shares ranged from a low of 27 64 to a high of 46 90 The improvement on the crude front followed Russia s plans of meeting OPEC members in September for a possible output cut This brought a ray of hope for oilfield services major like Halliburton In details over the past few trading days West Texas Intermediate WTI crude futures surged more than 20 from a low settlement price of 39 50 on Aug 2 With crude on a bull run exploration and production companies will get a strong incentive to produce more oil This will directly increase contracts for oilfield services players for setting up oil wells Moreover Halliburton is among the top three players in each of its product service categories and is present in all major hydrocarbon producing regions of the world The company enjoys a strong relationship with both publicly traded and national oil companies worldwide We also appreciate Halliburton s cost cutting initiatives like reducing headcount and consolidating facilities Additionally the company amid the rig count carnage that hit its activity levels and pricing Most importantly the company expects rig count to increase modestly during the second half of 2016 which should push up North American activities However following opposition from U S and European regulators Halliburton and Baker Hughes called off their 28 billion merger agreement Accordingly Halliburton paid Baker Hughes 3 5 billion in termination fees one of the highest in U S corporate history This has hurt Halliburton s liquidity As a result Halliburton carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold implying that the stock will perform in line with the broader U S equity market over the next one to three months HALLIBURTON CO Price and Consensus Stocks to ConsiderBetter ranked players in the energy sector include Matador Resources Company NYSE MTDR Murphy USA Inc NYSE MUSA and North Atlantic Drilling Limited NYSE NADL Each of these players sports a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy |
C | Gold futures add to gains as markets await EU developments | Investing com Gold futures added to gains on Monday trading at a three day high as investors positioned themselves in the precious metal ahead of Wednesday s critical European Union summit On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1 654 15 a troy ounce during U S morning trade climbing 1 1 It earlier rose by as much as 1 4 to trade at USD1 663 15 a troy ounce the highest price since October 19 European leaders moved closer to an agreement on bank recapitalization on Sunday while Germany and France neared an agreement on expanding the firepower of the euro zone s bailout fund But divisions over restructuring Greek debt remained and a final agreement was not expected until Wednesday s meeting There have been hours and hours of discussions We haven t succeeded yet but we have until Wednesday French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkozy said earlier Gold futures got a boost from the news moving in line with other risk sensitive assets like industrial commodities and global equities For much of the last year investors typical reaction to upbeat news from Europe was to sell gold as it dampens the safe haven appeal of the precious metal but that relationship hasn t held up recently Meanwhile Wall Street lender Citigroup raised its gold price forecast for 2012 and 2013 citing a high probability that the macroeconomic and financial factors that have buoyed prices over the past three years will continue for the next 12 18 months The bank now sees gold averaging USD1 950 a troy ounce in 2012 compared with a previous estimate of USD1 650 an ounce For 2013 Citi expects gold prices to average USD1 745 a troy ounce up from USD1 500 an ounce Increased global risk U S dollar weakness growing inflationary fears the U S debt downgrade and continuing sovereign debt risks in Europe will underpin investor appetite for gold the bank said in a report published earlier Elsewhere on the Comex silver for December delivery rose 0 83 to trade at USD31 45 a troy ounce while copper for December delivery rallied 3 5 to trade at USD3 336 a pound Citigroup raised its silver price forecast as well For 2012 the lender expects silver to average USD32 90 a troy ounce compared with an earlier forecast of USD26 00 an ounce |
C | Natural gas futures Weekly outlook October 31 November 4 | Investing com Natural gas futures rose sharply on Friday jumping to the highest level since early September as expectations that oncoming early season winter weather will boost heating demand in the U S buoyed prices On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for delivery in December settled at USD3 926 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday jumping 2 25 over the week the third consecutive weekly gain The December contract rose to USD3 934 per million British thermal units earlier Friday the highest price since September 15 Natural gas prices rallied nearly 4 3 on Friday as forecasts called for near freezing temperatures throughout much of the northeastern U S states through the first week of November with potential weekend snowfall expected from Maryland through Maine According to the U S National Weather Service weekend snowfall was forecast across upstate New York with the storm expected to worsen as it moved towards northern New England October snowfall is rare in New York there had been just three October days with measurable snowfall in Central Park since record keeping began 135 years ago according to the NWS Meanwhile weather service provider AccuWeather expected temperatures in the U S Northeast and Midwest to remain below normal through November 4 with overnight lows dropping to the 30 s Fahrenheit 0 Celsius area Wall Street lender Citigroup said Friday that it expected prices to rise to USD4 50 in the near term as demand will increase in December as temperatures fall Week by week and month by month we ll be seeing stronger demand the lender said in a report Last year demand increased by 74 from October to January pushing prices as high as USD4 606 in December the report added Despite the strong gain natural gas prices were expected to remain under pressure amid concerns over rising inventory levels in the U S On Thursday the U S Energy Information Administration said in its weekly supply report that natural gas storage in the U S rose by 92 billion cubic feet last week Analysts had expected U S natural gas storage to rise by 90 billion cubic feet Supplies climbed by 74 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier while the five year average change is a buildup of 47 billion cubic feet Elsewhere on the Nymex light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery traded at USD93 55 a barrel by close of trade on Friday rallying 6 75 over the week while heating oil for December delivery dropped 1 82 on the week to trade at USD3 070 per gallon by close of trade Friday |
C | Meredith Whitney Valentine Pundit Wrong On Munis | On Thursday February 7 as I do most days I watched Bloomberg Television s Surveillance from an exercise bike while sipping my morning coffee Sara Eisen Scarlet Fu Tom Keene and Mike McKee were interviewing Meredith Whitney First disclosure Meredith Whitney and I have had our disagreements over municipal bonds and municipal bond strategies This was exacerbated by her infamous call on 60 Minutes in December 2010 In the recent Bloomberg interview Meredith sponsors the notion that the banking sector is improving and that the results will reflect in bank stocks The case she makes for the sector is bullish We completely agree with her on this issue We think her recommendations and her arguments are sound In the banking sector she is our Valentine pundit Second disclosure Cumberland has been overweight the banking sector and financials since this bull market started We use only ETFs The ones we own represent regional banks big banks insurance companies and small specialty types of financial institutions Those ETFs as a group are overweight banking relative to the benchmark index We are fully invested according to our internal asset allocation weighting models We believe these assets will attain much higher prices over time Meredith Whitney established herself in the banking sector with a famous call about Citigroup We agreed with her call then and we agree with her banking sector call now While our job is not to make calls but to manage portfolios we believe it is correct to praise where praise is due In the banking sector Meredith has and does earn that praise One of the big issues that prompted our public disagreement with Whitney involved her call on municipal bonds In that call she articulated a prediction that hundreds of billions of dollars worth of defaults would occur Furthermore she expected that it would happen in 2012 We disagreed Our view on Munis has several components First some municipal bonds default every year Most of them are in the junk credit category or are tied to specific projects Second we see no way that annual defaults could reach Meredith s massive numbers This is especially true with the ongoing quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve Furthermore municipal finance is slowly improving in credit quality in many jurisdictions due to the ongoing economic recovery That recovery underway since 2009 is proceeding at a slow but gradually increasing pace Third Meredith ignored the idiosyncratic nature of tax exempt municipal securities There are approximately ninety thousand issuers in the US which fall under the governance of nearly that many state and local jurisdictions and the claims upon them are equally various You cannot paint the tax free or taxable municipal bond sectors with a single broad brush That just does not work It did not work with her 60 Minutes prognostication and it did not work for those investors who thought that they could buy insured bonds and that those bonds were all gilt edged That is and was a fundamental flaw in certain bond funds In order to successfully invest own or lend your money to a municipality or to otherwise place capital in the municipal bond sector you must carefully research the credit and structure of the specific instrument There is a vast difference between the nature of a general obligation pledge versus a budget funded by an annual appropriation in a city in California There are very strongly monopolistic government franchises such as the NJ Turnpike Essential service revenue bonds are available with tight liens and claims to secure the bond holders Many Munis are quite solid when it comes to credit In the February 7th Bloomberg interview Meredith Whitney was asked specifically about her history with the municipal bond call Readers can judge her response for themselves See her interview on Her famous 100 billion dollar default interview is Our view is that one must do the analysis on credit There are many opportunities in the municipal bond sector Default on them is unlikely and default in a massive scale is also unlikely To Meredith and to all readers we wish you a happy Valentine s Day BY David R Kotok |
C | GBP USD Now Below 2009 Trend line Sharp Fall To Come | A decline from 2008 peak to 2009 The 1 3500 low was in five waves which in Elliott Wave theory indicates a direction of a larger trend This is called an impulse wave and once this leg is complete you will see a reversal in price against the trend normally into a slow choppy and overlapping price action which is the personality of a correction Well this is exactly what has market experienced since the 2009 lows As such we are very confident that the GBP USD pair made a corrective pattern in wave B position which is called a triangle In fact this triangle could already be in place as the current price closed below rising trend line connected from the 2009 low However we still want to see a break of wave D 1 5267 low that will confirm the bearish view for wave C fall towards 1 3000 |
C | A Study Nearly 3 000 Equity Long Short Hedge Funds | One of the most vexing issues in the hedge fund industry is the relationship between growth in assets under management AUMs and future returns An abundance of anecdotal evidence suggests that smaller managers with great performance attract capital quickly which dilutes future returns Further the recent concentration of capital among large hedge funds has raised questions as to whether this has contributed to the decline in industry wide alpha In a recent report we analyzed nearly 3 000 equity long short funds in order to get to the heart of this issue Prior studies have had limited usefulness due to three issues a the inclusion of backfilled database returns which seriously distorts the overall results Pertrac and Barclays b a population of funds across the industry as a whole which includes differing strategies with divergent capacity issues and c a failure to exclude managers or funds below a reasonable AUM threshold most studies which results in an impractically small average fund size By contrast we focused narrowly on the equity long short space since these managers are likely to face similar capacity constraints as opposed to for instance macro investors or CTAs Backfill issues were addressed by including fund returns only from the date when the funds began to report to the database our studies show that pre reporting returns are 6 8 above post reporting results which shows the magnitude of the issue Finally we grouped funds according to manager since many funds have multiple share classes and since some growth related issues are firm specific as much as they are fund specific In our study we divided the universe into firms that managed 50 million to 500 million in equity long short AUMs Small and those that managed more Big The 50 million lower bound was selected to make the sample more representative of an actual emerging manager investment program The result of the study clearly demonstrates that smaller hedge fund managers tend to outperform larger ones a conclusion that will resonate with many hedge fund investors Small firms outperformed Big by 254 bps and 220 bps per annum over five and ten years respectively Outperformance was most pronounced preceding and following the crisis especially 2009 while drawdowns were in line during the crisis Virtually all of the outperformance was due to alpha not beta andThe dispersion of returns among smaller funds was greater than those of larger firms The fund population in the Beachhead study consisted of 2 827 equity long short hedge funds drawn from the HFR database of live and dead funds Funds were included based on strategy classifications for fundamental value fundamental growth and sector specialists in technology healthcare energy and basic materials quantitative driven market neutral and short biased funds were excluded For each year the funds were grouped into Small and Big portfolios that were equally weighted and rebalanced monthly To mitigate backfill bias the returns for a given fund were only included as of the date it began reporting to the database In the sample the number of Small and Big firms was roughly equal In 2012 a Small firm managed 193 million on average while a Big firm managed 3 7 billion Interestingly average Big firm assets have tripled over the past decade while Small firm assets have remained roughly constant which reinforces the view that Big firms have had a much easier time attracting capital Over the past ten years Small equity long short managers returned 7 56 per annum and outperformed their larger peers by 220 bps per annum over the past five years outperformance was 254 bps per annum Small managers showed a moderately higher annualized standard deviation but drawdowns were in line and the Sharpe ratio was significantly higher The chart below shows the returns of Small and Big managers over the past ten years As shown below Small managers materially outperformed both before and after the crisis especially during the post crisis recovery Somewhat surprisingly despite somewhat higher beta smaller firms did not underperform larger ones during the crisis which may reflect superior risk management or a more manageable capital base The remarkable consistency of the outperformance is evident in the following chart The date on the top row reflects the inception of an investment that terminates in the year on the vertical column the percentage in the corresponding cell reflects the compound annual return differential of Small less Big over the specified period For instance the cell on the upper left shows 2 20 of compound annual outperformance of Small vs Big over 2003 to 2012 Green boxes show periods of outperformance of Small It s notable that outperformance does not appear to be attributable to rapid or regular changes in market exposure rather the beta of Small to Big is quite consistently around 1 1 with stable correlations above 0 95 Consequently comparable drawdowns during the crisis itself seem to reflect somewhat larger market driven losses offset by persistent positive alpha The following chart examines the alpha of the Small portfolio relative to the Big portfolio over the ten year period Note that alpha is annualized in the box The vast majority of outperformance is due to alpha not beta which confirms that higher risk taking does not explain the differential We also studied the dispersion of returns in order to test the hypothesis that smaller managers are motivated to outperform while larger firms are likely to be more risk averse The chart below shows the annual returns of the funds in the Small and Big portfolios with the mean minimum and maximum fund returns In virtually every year since the late 1990s the top performing Small funds have materially outperformed the comparable Big funds Interestingly the worst performing Small funds matched or outperformed the comparable Big funds in the vast majority of years which supports the argument that Small fund outperformance is not driven by higher symmetric risk taking As a final test we analyzed what would happen if the threshold between Small and Big managers was lowered or raised The chart below shows the differential in returns over the past five and ten years and clearly shows that outperformance of smaller managers declines as AUMs increase For instance when small is defined as less than 1 0 billion the outperformance relative to larger managers is 1 1 over ten years and 0 6 over five years The key question for investors is what factors drive the differential in returns Three potential factors include The most talented managers self select to start firms rather than work at larger firms Many talented managers build experience in larger firms before launching their own firms Smaller managers have a better opportunity set based on trading volume the number of potential long and short side investments declines by up to 80 between 100 million and 1 billion in AUMs Off the run and less efficiently priced stocks can have a meaningful impact on returns Anecdotally capacity issues materialize sooner on short positions Pressure to perform performance fees are a higher percentage of overall compensation and drive asset growth Our analysis suggests that up to 80 of the enterprise value of larger firms is due to capitalized management fee EBITDA as opposed to performance fees |
C | Italy s Election Hold On To Your Seats | This weekend Italians will hit the polls in the much anticipated parliamentary elections The elections will decide the next ruling party in Italy and could very well determine the near term future of the European debt crisis thus making it a major trading event for investors Berlusconi Closing InOpinion polls have been in a blackout period for about two weeks now so there are no current data points that could lead investors to predict the election However the trend ahead of the elections has been that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi running on an anti austerity pro growth platform was closing in on the favorite Pier Luigi Bersani However there are other important players in the election of whom investors should be informed The TechnocratInvestors will be familiar with current technocratic Prime Minister Mario Monti who was appointed upon the resignation of Berlusconi to clean up the nation s finances and lower the nation s debt load So far he has been fairly successful and is probably most responsible for easing Italy s debt woes and allowing it to fade into the background behind other crisis nations such as Spain and Greece Monti is up for reelection however he was trailing both leading candidates Grilli and Berlusconi in opinion polls The two leaders were effectively tied when accounting for the sampling error of these polls Thus the election is anyone s game at this point Comedian By TradeA fourth key player in the elections is almost too funny to believe and that s because he s an actual working comedian The leader of the Five Star Movement a quasi socialist anti European Union party is none other than Beppe Grillo outspoken socialist comedian blogger and now politician Looking at the last opinion polls released February 8 Bersani s party the one investors should back given their pro austerity and pro euro stance led with approximately 35 of the vote Berlusconi s coalition garnered about 32 of the vote while Monti received about 14 Beppe Grillo also had a sizable 16 of the votes Alot Like GreeceInvestors should recall over the summer how Greece failed in its first attempt to form a majority coalition and create a government Currently should Grillo s party side with Berlusconi it may be difficult for a Bersani Monti coalition to form a government Analysts liken this scenario to the one that played out in Greece over the summer where markets were in turmoil fretting over the fate of the Greek political system This time the same fears persist however the magnitude of the outcome is about eight times larger considering that Italy s economy is about eight times the size of its Mediterranean counterpart Elections commence Sunday and continue through Monday with the first exit polls being released after polls close on Monday Ten Year Bond SaleWhich should be about when markets in the U S close so expect some volatility into the close of American trading Also Italy has just announced a 4 billion euro debt sale of 10 year bonds for the 27 of which yields should be very volatile in the lead up to the auction c 2013 Benzinga com Benzinga does not provide investment advice All rights reserved |
JPM | JPMorgan to pay 4 million for false statements about broker pay SEC | Reuters JP Morgan Chase N JPM Co s brokerage unit will pay 4 million to settle allegations it misled customers about the form of compensation it paid to brokers the U S Securities and Exchange Commission said on Wednesday The case stems from comments on the company s private banking website which falsely stated that advisers are paid based on our clients performance and that no one is paid on commission the SEC said in a statement Advisers however were paid salaries and discretionary bonuses based on various factors not client performance the SEC said
There was no allegation that the mistake made years ago was intentional or that any client was harmed a JP Morgan spokesman said JPMorgan which neither admitted nor denied the SEC s findings has improved its procedures to prevent a recurrence the spokesman said |
JPM | China stocks up after circuit breaker axed yuan fixed higher | By Lu Jianxin and Pete Sweeney SHANGHAI Reuters China s major stock indexes rose strongly on Friday after Beijing ditched a circuit breaker mechanism that halted trading twice this week and had been blamed for exacerbating the market sell offs it was designed to limit The People s Bank of China also raised its guidance rate for the yuan for the first time in nine trading days having allowed the currency s biggest fall in five months on Thursday sending shivers through regional currencies and global stock markets as investors feared it would trigger competitive devaluations Chinese markets have had a turbulent start to 2016 buffeted by the PBOC s lower yuan fixings against the dollar two days of stock exchange suspensions weak factory and service sector surveys and worries about looming share sales by major stakeholders once a ban on such sales expires With the circuit breaker deactivated late on Thursday the CSI300 index CSI300 was up 3 percent at 3 393 61 points in early afternoon trade on Friday while the Shanghai Composite Index was up 2 8 percent at 3 211 12 points The CSI300 had lost around 12 percent in the first four trading days of 2016 giving up all the gains made in 2015 The circuit breaker which only came into effect on Jan 4 came under fire for kicking in too soon with its initial pause in trading and then encouraging a rush to sell before a second trigger halted the day s trade permanently The market is back to normal said Tian Weidong analyst at Kaiyuan Securities Investors can buy and sell as they wish Under the circuit breaker mechanism the market was suffocated To calm currency markets the PBOC set its daily midpoint rate for the yuan at 6 5636 per dollar prior to market open firmer than Thursday s fix at 6 5646 and closing quote of 6 5929 Under China s currency regime the yuan is allowed to deviate 2 percent either side of the midpoint The yuan firmed in early trade with dealers suspecting that the central bank intervened through state run banks to support its currency which could help allay fears that any depreciation would be allowed to continue at pace The onshore yuan recovered to 6 5874 at around 0500 gmt while the offshore yuan was about 1 4 percent weaker at 6 6835 narrowing a spread that reached around 2 percent a day earlier Since the PBOC devalued the yuan by about 2 percent last August the spread has been growing encouraging an outflow of capital that Beijing has been trying to stem While the market was left with uncertainty on how far the yuan will fall the Chinese central bank s action the stronger fix on Friday was taken as a signal that it does not intend to keep allowing the yuan to fall said Yoshinori Shigemi a market strategist at JPMorgan N JPM Asset Management Sources told Reuters that China s foreign exchange regulator has ordered banks in some trading hubs including Shenzhen to limit clients dollar purchases this month the latest attempt to stem capital outflows Standard Chartered L STAN and DBS Group Holdings Ltd SI DBSM are among three lenders that China s central bank last week suspended from conducting some foreign exchange business three sources with direct knowledge told Reuters on Thursday Sources for an earlier story on cross border currency dealing said some banks may have been targeted because of the large scale of their cross border forex businesses CALL FOR CLARITY After its sharply lower fix on Thursday the PBOC had later sown confusion by reportedly intervening heavily to defend the yuan in offshore trade reversing a decline of more than 1 percent that took it to a record low of 6 7600 per dollar That left dealers at a loss to know what the central bank s aims were Market volatility this week suggests that nobody really knows what the policy is right now Or if the government itself knows or is capable of implementing the policy even if there is one said DBS bank The market s message was loud and clear that more clarity and less flip flopping is needed going forward Markets will remain wary of China s currency goals as mixed messages come from the central bank which has repeatedly said it sees no basis for the currency to depreciate while steering it gradually lower Sources told Reuters on Thursday that the PBOC is under increasing pressure from policy advisers to let the currency fall quickly and sharply by as much as 10 15 percent as its recent gradual softening is thought to be doing more harm than good A flurry of Chinese economic data in the coming weeks is likely to show economic activity continued to slow in December adding to concerns about the outlook for 2016 |
JPM | High U S job openings point to pick up in wage growth | By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON Reuters U S job openings rose in November and employers appeared to have trouble finding qualified workers a trend that could trigger a pick up in wage growth this year Job openings a measure of labor demand increased 82 000 to a seasonally adjusted 5 43 million the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday The rise lifted the jobs openings rate to 3 7 percent from 3 6 percent in October Hiring rose to 5 20 million from 5 17 million the prior month continuing to lag job openings The hiring rate was unchanged at 3 6 percent Job openings are high relative to the unemployment rate which is currently at a 7 1 2 year low of 5 percent We interpret this as a sign of a mismatch between the needs of employers and the skills of job seekers said John Ryding chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York Since firms appear unable to fill job openings with unemployed labor resources we expect there will be competition for already employed workers which should lead to stronger wage growth Even as the labor market tightens wage growth has been frustratingly slow Average hourly earnings have failed to break above 2 5 percent on a year over year basis Economists say a growth rate of between 3 and 3 5 percent in wages is needed to bring inflation near the Federal Reserve s 2 percent target The so called JOLTS report is among the data watched by Fed officials to get a pulse on both the labor market and inflation The Fed last month raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to between 0 25 and 0 50 percent in a vote of confidence in the economy Further hikes will likely depend on the inflation outlook and financial market conditions economists say Tightening labor market conditions were also corroborated by the National Federation of Independent Business survey on Tuesday which showed the share of small businesses reporting they could not find qualified workers in December was the highest in six years According to the NFIB finding qualified workers now ranks as one of the main challenges for small businesses The share of businesses reporting wage increases remained relatively high in December The high proportion of firms with hard to fill positions is a sign that the labor market has tightened up to the point that wages are being pulled higher said Mark Vitner a senior economist at Wells Fargo N WFC Securities in New York But for now wage growth will likely remain gradual The JOLTS report showed the quit rate which the Fed looks at as a measure of confidence in the jobs market was unchanged at 2 0 percent in November The number of unemployed job seekers per open job fell to a ratio of 1 46 from 1 48 in October There were big increases in job openings in leisure and hospitality and construction sectors Job openings fell in professional and business services and trade transportation and utilities sectors
The JOLTS report is consistent with our view that the labor market will continue to improve but that we will see some moderation in job growth said Daniel Silver an economist at JPMorgan N JPM in New York |
BMY | How Trading Your Own Retirement Can Fleece Your Financial Future January 03 2020 | You have a substantial retirement portfolio You re an accomplished investor You ve done truly well selecting stocks You probably already own a couple of Zacks Top Retirement stock picks like
Bristol Myers Squibb BMY First Financial Corp THFF and Sandy Spring Bancorp SASR
If that sounds like you should you actively trade your own retirement assets
Maybe if you re an exceptional investor who can expertly manage risk and keep up perfectly resolute emotional control in the face of market volatility Be that as it may for most investors there might be better ways to accomplish long term retirement investing objectives
That s because the risk reward scenario and investing approach is completely different for long term wealth building and active stock trading
Managing Retirement Investments Stock Picking vs Diversification
Picking individual stocks has the potential for huge returns but also carries a lot of risk which is particularly hazardous when investing for retirement
In fact a study done by Hendrik Bessembinder revealed that only 4 of equities produced all of the stock market s gains over the last 90 years All other stocks broke even with the increases of 38 canceled out by the losses of the bottom 58
Those numbers reinforce that even if you are an experienced and talented stock picker your chances of success over a long period are very slim
Is Investing Success All In Your Mind
Investors think they can make rational decisions but research shows that the opposite is often true A recent DALBAR study tracked investors from 1986 to 2015 and found that the average investor substantially underperformed compared to the S P 500 Over 30 years the S P 500 returned 10 35 but the average investor return was just 3 66
It is worth noting that this period included the 1987 crash and enormous bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and the positively trending market of the 1990s as well
An important takeaway of this study is that investors seem to underperform because they try to time volatile markets and irrational emotional responses tend to these investing mistakes
Interestingly even savvy traders tend to underperform because they can t help but allow emotions to drive investment decisions They may be overconfident and misjudge risk latch onto a price target or perceive a pattern that isn t there This behavior gap over the long term can be catastrophic with potential underperformance of hundreds of thousands of dollars sabotaging your retirement
What It All Means for Retirement Investors
Your retirement portfolio should be managed with a strategy of performance over decades not days weeks or quarters Most self directed investors tend to fall short when it comes to long term results
Does that mean you should give up trading Not necessarily One solution is to take 10 of your investable assets and trade to generate alpha and seek outsized returns
However the major part of your wealth those assets reserved for retirement ought to be invested utilizing a more careful conservative risk management strategy to produce steady compounded returns so you can securely achieve your retirement objectives
Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes
Whether you re planning to retire early or not don t let investing mistakes derail your plans
If you have 500 000 or more to invest and want to learn more click the link to download our free report 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement This report will help you steer clear of the most common mistakes like trying to time the market lack of diversification in your portfolio and many more Get Your FREE Guide Now |
BMY | Are You Looking For A Top Momentum Pick Why Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Is A Great Choice | Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock s recent trend in either direction In the long context investors will be essentially be buying high but hoping to sell even higher With this methodology taking advantage of trends in a stock s price is key once a stock establishes a course it is more than likely to continue moving that way The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path it will lead to timely and profitable trades
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks this can be very tough to define There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance The Zacks Momentum Style Score part of the Zacks Style Scores helps address this issue for us
Below we take a look at Bristol Myers Squibb BMY which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score like price change and earnings estimate revisions
It s also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance Bristol Myers Squibb currently has a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy and 2 Buy and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one month period
You can see the current list of Zacks 1 Rank Stocks here
Set to Beat the Market
In order to see if BMY is a promising momentum pick let s examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this biopharmaceutical company holds up
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short term price activity as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand It s also helpful to compare a security to its industry this can show investors the best companies in a particular area
For BMY shares are up 0 99 over the past week while the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is up 0 34 over the same time period Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too as the monthly price change of 6 49 compares favorably with the industry s 4 19 performance as well
Considering longer term price metrics like performance over the last three months or year can be advantageous as well Shares of Bristol Myers Squibb have increased 24 73 over the past quarter and have gained 40 38 in the last year On the other hand the S P 500 has only moved 13 37 and 32 19 respectively
Investors should also take note of BMY s average 20 day trading volume Volume is a useful item in many ways and the 20 day average establishes a good price to volume baseline a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish Right now BMY is averaging 12 805 106 shares for the last 20 days
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things including estimate revisions and a stock s price movement Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank and a nice path here can be promising We have recently been noticing this with BMY
Over the past two months 3 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year These revisions helped boost BMY s consensus estimate increasing from 4 33 to 4 47 in the past 60 days Looking at the next fiscal year 2 estimates have moved upwards while there have been 1 downward revision in the same time period
Bottom Line
Taking into account all of these elements it should come as no surprise that BMY is a 2 Buy stock with a Momentum Score of A If you ve been searching for a fresh pick that s set to rise in the near term make sure to keep Bristol Myers Squibb on your short list |
BMY | Can Bristol Myers BMY Keep The Earnings Surprise Streak Alive | Have you been searching for a stock that might be well positioned to maintain its earnings beat streak in its upcoming report It is worth considering Bristol Myers Squibb BMY which belongs to the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry
When looking at the last two reports this biopharmaceutical company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates The company has topped estimates by 10 85 on average in the last two quarters
For the most recent quarter Bristol Myers was expected to post earnings of 1 06 per share but it reported 1 17 per share instead representing a surprise of 10 38 For the previous quarter the consensus estimate was 1 06 per share while it actually produced 1 18 per share a surprise of 11 32
Price and EPS Surprise
Thanks in part to this history there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Bristol Myers lately In fact the Zacks Earnings ESP Expected Surprise Prediction for the stock is positive which is a great indicator of an earnings beat particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 Hold or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70 of the time In other words if you have 10 stocks with this combination the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier
Bristol Myers currently has an Earnings ESP of 34 10 which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company s earnings prospects This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock s Zacks Rank 2 Buy indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner We expect the company s next earnings report to be released on February 6 2020
Investors should note however that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate though this is not the only reason why their shares gain Additionally some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate
Because of this it s really important to check a company s Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they ve reported |
BMY | Zacks com Featured Highlights Include Helen Of Troy Penn National Gaming Arcos Dorados Insight Enterprises And Bristol Myers Squibb | For Immediate ReleaseChicago IL January 8 2020 Stocks in this week s article are Helen of Troy Ltd NASDAQ HELE Penn National Gaming Inc NASDAQ PENN Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc NYSE ARCO Insight Enterprises Inc NASDAQ NSIT and Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY 5 High Flying Stocks Near 52 Week Highs That Can Scale HigherInvestors generally use 52 week high as an indicator to pick stocks This is because stocks near that level are perceived to be winners However considering the high price investors often wonder if the stock is overpriced While the speculations are not absolutely baseless all stocks hitting a 52 week high are not necessarily overpriced In fact investors might lose out on top gainers in an attempt to avoid the steep prices of stocks that are near their 52 week high mark A good stock can maintain the momentum and keep scaling new highs So more information on a stock is necessary to understand whether there is scope for further upside Here we discuss a strategy to find the right stocks which borrows from the basics of momentum investing this technique bets on buy high sell higher 52 Week High A Good IndicatorMany a time stocks hitting a 52 week high fail to scale higher despite having potential This is because investors fear that the stocks are overvalued and expect the price to crash In fact overvaluation is natural for most of these stocks as investors focus or willingness to pay premium has helped them reach the level But that does not always indicate an impending decline Factors such as robust sales surging profit levels earnings growth prospects and strategic acquisitions that encouraged investors to bet on these stocks could keep them motivated if there is no tangible negative In other words the momentum might continue Also when a string of positive developments dominates the market investors find their under reaction unwarranted even if there are no company specific driving forces For the rest of this Screen of the Week article please visit Zacks com at Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material About Screen of the WeekZacks com created the first and best screening system on the web earning the distinction as the 1 site for screening stocks by Money Magazine But powerful screening tools is just the start That is why Zacks created the Screen of the Week to highlight profitable stock picking strategies that investors can actively use Strong Stocks that Should Be in the NewsMany are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar They re virtually unknown to the general public Yet today s 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys were generated by the stock picking system that has more than doubled the market from 1988 through 2016 Its average gain has been a stellar 25 per year Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook NASDAQ FB Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities including a broker dealer and an investment adviser which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates Contact Jim GiaquintoCompany Zacks comPhone 312 265 9268Email Visit Zacks com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks Terms and Conditions of Service disclaimer Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
HAL | What s In Store For Halliburton HAL This Earnings Season | Halliburton Company NYSE HAL is set to report second quarter 2016 results on Jul 20 before the opening bell Last quarter the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 75 00 The trailing four quarter average beat for the company is 42 68 Let s see what is in store for this quarter HALLIBURTON CO Price and EPS Surprise Crude Recovery May Back Q2Houston TX based Halliburton is a global oilfield services provider offering a variety of equipment maintenance and engineering and construction services to the energy industrial and government sectors Oil field services players primarily support upstream companies that include drilling firms setting up their oil and gas wells Through the quarter oil price improved significantly from mid February when West Texas Intermediate WTI crude fell to a 12 year low mark of 26 05 per barrel Moreover last month oil prices settled above the psychologically important 50 per barrel level for the first time in more than 10 months Since the overall operation of Halliburton is positively correlated with crude prices we can say that the second quarter might come up as a blessing for the company However weak oilfield service activities following lower U S drilling rigs are expected to hurt Halliburton Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not conclusively show that Halliburton Company is likely to beat on earnings this quarter This is because a stock needs to have both a positive and a Zacks Rank 1 2 or 3 for this to happen That is not the case here as you will see below Zacks ESP Earnings ESP represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate This leads to an ESP of 16 67 for Halliburton as the Most Accurate estimate stands at a loss of 21 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged narrower at a loss of 18 cents Zacks Rank Halliburton has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank 4 or 5 Sell rated going into the earnings announcement especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revisions Stocks to ConsiderHere are some companies in the energy sector that investors may consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE APC has an Earnings ESP of 11 25 and a Zacks Rank 2 The company is likely to release earnings results on Jul 26 Legacy Reserves LP NASDAQ LGCY has an Earnings ESP of 15 79 and a Zacks Rank 1 The partnership is expected to release earnings results on Aug 3 Ring Energy Inc NYSE REI has an Earnings ESP of 33 33 and a Zacks Rank 1 The company is anticipated to release earnings results on Aug 8 |
HAL | Halliburton HAL Slips To Loss In Q2 Beats On Revenues | Major oilfield services provider Halliburton Company NYSE HAL reported narrower than expected second quarter 2016 loss following higher fluid works and improved pipeline services in the North Sea However lower pricing and reduced global activities especially North American pressure pumping works hurt results significantly over the year ago quarter
Loss per share from continuing operations came in at 14 cents narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 19 cents The company had posted profits of 44 cents in second quarter 2015
Halliburton is the first member of the big 4 oil service companies to come up with second quarter earnings Baker Hughes Inc Schlumberger Ltd and Weatherford International Ltd the other members are expected to release earnings on Jul 28 Jul 21 and Jul 27 respectively
Halliburton s revenues of 3 835 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 744 million owing to higher sales of completion tools in Nigeria However the top line witnessed a 35 2 year over year decline
During the quarter North America accounted for approximately 39 5 of Halliburton s total revenues Segmental Performance
Revenues at Halliburton s Completion and Production segment came in at 2 1 billion down 38 2 year over year and almost 9 sequentially Lower prices of product service lines and pressure pumping works in North America did the damage However the negatives were partially offset by higher sales of completion tools in Nigeria and improved the North Sea pipeline services
The segment s operating loss came in at 32 million while it had reported profits of 313 million and 30 million the year ago and prior quarter respectively Lower pricing and reduced global activities especially North American pressure pumping works played foul this time around
Revenues at Halliburton s Drilling Evaluation business came in at 1 7 billion 32 below the second quarter 2015 level and almost 11 less than the prior quarter Lower pricing record low rig counts and constraints in customer budgets affected the results This was negated to some extent by higher fluid works in the North Sea
Moreover the segment s operating income fell 62 from the year ago quarter and 36 from first quarter 2016 to 154 million due to reduced activities and pricing weakness primarily in North America and Middle East Asia Balance Sheet
Halliburton s capital expenditure in the second quarter totaled 213 million As of Jun 30 2016 the company had approximately 3 1 billion in cash cash equivalents and 12 2 billion in long term debt representing a debt to capitalization ratio of 56 9 Outlook
Halliburton expects rig count to increase modestly during the second half of 2016 which should push up North American activities
HALLIBURTON CO Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Zacks Rank
Halliburton currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold implying that to the stock will perform in line with the broader U S equity market over the next one to three months |
C | Grain futures Weekly review October 10 14 | Investing com Corn and wheat futures edged higher on Friday while soybean prices rallied to a three week high as increased demand from top consumer China and a broadly weaker U S dollar boosted the appeal of commodities On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange corn futures for December delivery traded at USD6 3988 per bushel by close of trade on Friday jumping 6 33 over the week It was the second consecutive weekly gain and the biggest since the week ended July 15 The U S Department of Agriculture on Thursday confirmed the sale of approximately 900 000 tonnes of U S corn to China the second largest single day sale of U S corn supplies to China on record Speculation over the large sale saw corn prices rally nearly 6 5 on Tuesday after Chinese media outlets reported that the country had purchased 1 5 million tonnes of corn without disclosing the supplier The U S is both the world s largest corn producing nation and the world s largest exporter of the grain while China is the world s second largest corn consumer Wall Street bank Citigroup said in a report Friday that the significant Chinese purchase is designed to build up a little bit of their reserves after clearing out old inventories as they plan to do again in November Elsewhere on the CMEX wheat for December delivery rose 2 56 over the week to settle at USD6 2362 a bushel on Friday the first weekly gain in seven Wheat prices tracked sharp gains in corn on Tuesday rallying nearly 8 amid expectations deteriorating crop conditions in China will lead the country to increase imports of wheat China is the world s largest wheat producer and consumer while the U S is the world s third largest wheat producer and biggest exporter of the grain However prices trimmed gains on Wednesday after the USDA raised its estimate on world wheat supplies in the 2011 12 marketing season to 202 37 million tonnes up nearly 8 million tonnes from the previous month s forecast Meanwhile soybeans for November delivery surged 8 6 on the week to settle at USD12 6862 a bushel the highest price since September 27 It was the first weekly gain in five weeks and the largest since December 2008 Soybean prices were boosted after official trade data from China showed that the nation s soybean imports rose 4 from a year earlier to a record 52 3 million metric tons in the year ended September 30 China is the world s largest soybean consumer and is expected to account for nearly 60 of global trade of the grain in the 2011 12 season according to the USDA Grain prices found further support Friday as hopes for a resolution to the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone and better than expected U S retail sales saw risk appetite sharpen boosting riskier assets and dampening the appeal of traditional safe haven assets like the U S dollar A weaker dollar boosts the appeal of U S crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment Corn is the biggest U S crop valued at USD66 7 billion in 2010 followed by soybeans at USD38 9 billion government figures show Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion behind hay In the week ahead any signs that European Union leaders are making progress on steps to contain the debt crisis in the euro zone look likely to continue to support risk appetite Meanwhile investors will be looking towards a string of economic data from the U S and China to gauge the strength of the global economy |
C | FOREX Euro rally takes a breather more short covering eyed | Euro resistance at 1 3937 and 1 3952 support at 1 3834
Euro option barrier stops at 1 39 downside stops at
1 38 traders
Oct 23 EU summit seen as crucial to stop contagion
Greek debt write down must be larger German finmim
By Antoni Slodkowski
TOKYO Oct 17 Reuters The euro hovered near a one month
high on Monday after a G20 summit boosted hopes that the EU
would decisively address the region s debt woes this week with
traders saying additional short covering may allow the currency
to eke out further gains
The euro down 0 2 percent at 1 3853 on light
profit taking rallied 3 5 percent last week after the leaders
of Germany and France pledged to unveil a new package for
solving the two year crisis when the EU summit convenes on Oct
23 including an agreement on how to recapitalise banks
Hopes for the plan which also aims to make Greece s
mountain of debt more manageable and to bolster the firepower of
the euro zone s rescue fund helped to lift the euro off a
nine month low around 1 3145 hit on Oct 4 and set it
climbing to its highest in four weeks at 1 3895 on Friday
After the developments at the latest summit we can assume
that at long last concrete measures to solve the crisis will be
implemented next weekend said Sumino Kamei senior currency
analyst Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ
But the euro s rally last week was caused mostly by
short covering It will have a hard time going above 1 40 ahead
of the EU meeting as contagion fears indicated by elevated
levels of European bond yields are still showing almost no
signs of abating said Kamei
Currency positioning by speculators in the week ended on
Oct 11 also suggested traders were betting that the EU summit
would hit some snags and the euro would drop While it may now
be closer to neutral than the data suggests as the euro has
gained 1 6 percent since it was compiled traders say that not
all short positions have been cleared yet
The market is still euro short and may get caught off guard
quite easily More aggressive short covering can see the euro
go another leg higher particularly against the yen said a
trader for a Japanese bank
LAYERS OF RESISTANCE
But any potential gains would be hard won as the euro faces
a thick layer of resistance
An option barrier and topside stop losses have been detected
at 1 3900 right above the level where the euro s rally stalled
last week Downside stops are also seen at 1 3800
If it breaches 1 3900 the euro may be halted at 1 3937
resistance marked by a couple of daily highs hit in September
or at its 55 day moving average near 1 3952
Support for the common currency is seen around 1 3834
roughly matching a 38 2 percent retracement of a fall from
around 1 4940 in May to a nine month low of 1 3145 hit earlier
in October
Against the yen the euro was also 0 2 percent lower at
106 88 yen still not far from a five week high of
107 45 yen hit on Friday and well off a 10 year low of 100 77
yen hit in early October
While attendees of the G20 summit said the pace of
discussions was encouraging policymakers are facing stiff
resistance from banks over plans for greater private sector
participation in Greek debt restructuring and moves to force
banks to raise capital
Underscoring the difficult issues that negotiations must
address German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on
Sunday that Greece s debt crisis could not be solved without
larger write downs on Greek debt
In July private creditors agreed to a voluntary write down
of 21 percent on their Greek debt a figure which now looks
insufficient Euro zone officials said last week that losses are
now likely to be between 30 and 50 percent
The greenback was little changed at 77 18 yen
after hitting 77 45 on Friday near a one month peak set on
Wednesday
The dollar index held near a one month low of 76 508
hit on Friday after slipping 2 6 percent last week It last
stood at 76 717
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a number of
regional Fed bank presidents take to the podium this week with
any comments about more monetary easing likely to dent the
dollar further
Earnings releases from U S companies including Citigroup
Goldman Sachs and Apple could also affect
the euro s performance which has closely tracked investors
appetite for stocks and other risky assets
On Monday the focus again turns to Europe where German
Finance Minister Schaeuble and European Central Bank Executive
Board Member Juergen Stark are giving speeches in London and
Berlin respectively
Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Singapore Editing
by Edmund Klamann |
C | FOREX Euro falls as German finmin plays down debt talks | Recasts adds quotes detail updates prices
German FinMin sees no definitive solution at Oct 23 EU
summit
Comments dent optimism push euro off one month high vs
dollar
Cleaner euro positioning makes euro downside vulnerable
By Neal Armstrong
LONDON Oct 17 Reuters The euro fell on Monday after the
German Finance Minister said the upcoming European Union summit
would not definitively solve the region s debt crisis denting
investor optimism over the talks which had earlier pushed the
currency to one month highs
The euro was last down 0 7 percent against the dollar
at 1 3781 after Germany s Wolfgang Schaeuble s comments having
risen to its highest since Sep 15 at 1 3914 in earlier dealing
on trading platform EBS
The optimism that s been pushing the euro higher definitely
seems to be overdone said Raghav Subbarao currency strategist
at Barclays Capital
Some of the move last week was due to extreme short
positions which should now have been cleaned out to some extent
and that leaves the euro vulnerable he added
Traders said offers ahead of 1 3930 had halted the euro s
advance towards the pivotal 1 40 level in the near term
Technical resistance was at 1 3937 marked by a couple of daily
highs hit in September and backed up by the 55 day moving
average around 1 3952
The euro has recovered strongly since hitting a nine month
low around 1 3145 on Oct 4 but its recent gains have left it
vulnerable to a pullback if investors become worried EU leaders
may not be able to contain the debt crisis
Generally investors would rather be long dollar and short
euro and would be quick to reset those positions said Niels
Christensen currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen
Data showed speculators pared a good portion of short euro
positions in the week to Oct 11 with the subsequent rally to
one month highs likely to have further reduced those shorts
The dollar index briefly fell to a one month low of
76 441 before recovering to 77 013 up 0 5 percent on the day
The euro rallied 3 5 percent against the dollar last week
after the leaders of Germany and France pledged to unveil a new
package for solving the two year crisis at the EU summit
including an agreement on how to recapitalise banks
Policymakers will announce a plan but there are questions
about whether that plan will be credible in the market s view
said Subbarao
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
Above 1 40 the euro faces resistance around 1 4076 its
200 day moving average It has traded below this technical
indicator since early September
While attendees at the G20 summit said the pace of
discussions was encouraging policymakers face resistance from
banks over moves to increase private sector participation in
Greek debt restructuring and to force banks to raise capital
Underscoring the difficult issues to be addressed Germany s
Schaeuble said on Sunday that Greece s debt crisis could not be
solved without larger write downs on Greek debt
Schaeuble speaks again in London later on Monday
In July private creditors agreed to a voluntary write down
of 21 percent on their Greek debt a figure which now looks
insufficient Euro zone officials said last week that losses
were likely to be between 30 and 50 percent
If recent media reports are confirmed and the amount of
haircuts does not exceed 50 percent in our view this may fail
to appease concerns about the sustainability of the Greek debt
and thus provide no lasting support for the euro Citi
strategist Valentin Marinov said in a note
The euro fell from a five week high of 107 67 yen
to trade down 0 6 percent on the day at 106 45 yen
Earnings from U S companies including Citigroup
Goldman Sachs and Apple could also affect the
euro s performance which has closely tracked investors
appetite for stocks and other risky assets
Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer Graphic by Scott
Barber editing by Nigel Stephenson Ruth Pitchford |
C | How Ugly Did Europe Just Get | Global financial markets got beat down Monday on what was effectively a repricing of sovereign and political risk in Europe Bond yields rose bank stocks fell and broadly risk assets traded weakly The Berlusconi Yield BounceEurope just looked pretty ugly Monday Beginning in Italy 10 year government bond yields crept to two month highs Monday on fear that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may be gaining in the polls ahead of the upcoming elections It was under his regime that Italy built up massive debt levels and investors fear that a return to a Berlusconi government would ensure that austerity measures would be thrown by the wayside Italian 10 year government bond yields rose as high as 4 47 Monday and climbed further to 4 55 early Tuesday before declining back to 4 45 showing increased solvency risks in Italy Further two year bond yields a relative measure of the liquidity of a nation rose to 1 73 Monday and climbed as high as 1 77 Monday The rise in bond yields as of now is not worrisome however if yields continue to rise for successive days it could weigh on confidence in the health of the economic and financial recoveries Further it would call into question the credibility of the European Central Bank which with nothing but words sent bond yields lower over the summer Big Italian Banks Take HitItalian banks were clobbered Monday with Unicredit one of the nation s largest banks declining 8 29 and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sienna and Banco Popolare both declining over 5 In fact only one stock in the FTSE MIB Index Saipen traded in positive territory Monday however it is also the one company that declined more than 20 in the week before Moving to Spain sovereign risk crept up as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy allegedly funneled political money into personal accounts according to Spanish media reports The Prime Minister refuted the allegations however uncertainty surrounding the political stability of Spain is negative for the nation s sovereign debt Low Confidence In SpainSpanish 10 year government bond yields rose to 5 44 Monday and climbed as high as 5 5 early Tuesday marking the highest level for the yields since mid December Further two year bond yields rose to 2 88 Monday and climbed as high as 2 95 Tuesday before retreating lower All in all investors became less confident in the fiscal health of Spain due to political uncertainty Stock moves in Spain were similar to Italy Financials and industrial stocks traded lower as did technology companies All in all Spanish and Italian bonds and stocks simply repriced political and sovereign risk Monday a clear sign that Europe still has a long way to go before it fully exits its crisis c 2013 Benzinga com Benzinga does not provide investment advice All rights reserved |
C | Carving Up The Global Bond Market | On Monday I divided the world s equity markets into relative market value weights for some perspective on asset allocation The global bond market deserves no less and so I dive into the numbers below But first a caveat Categorizing the planet s supply of fixed income components is complicated Equities by contrast are a breeze In the interest of brevity here I m streamlining the task although no one should confuse the data that follows as the final world on defining the global bond market For instance I m leaving out U S munis and collateralized debt the world over Those are subjective choices but then again that s par for the course when it comes to setting up rules for investing in bonds There s relatively little debate when it comes to establishing benchmarks for equities Bonds by contrast are another matter entirely The primary motivation is focusing on what s easily replicated with ETF proxies while keeping the rules relatively simple and hopefully intuitive But even here minds can and will differ In other words the following is one man s notion of a rough guide for mapping the global bond market from an asset allocation perspective With that warning of subjectivity out of the way let s note that the underlying data reflect prices as of January 31 2013 in U S dollar terms The source for the investment grade numbers is Citigroup with Markit supplying the high yield data Let s begin with the big picture within the U S bond market Next here s how the U S bond market overall compares with foreign debt Here s how the foreign component breaks down Finally looking at all the pieces in context here s how the global fixed income pie is sliced up |
C | Libor Scam s Tom Hayes Goes Much Higher Than Me | I have long maintained that senior executives on Wall Street were very much aware of the collusive racketeering in the Libor rigging scandal Why so When a trader makes it rain that is he is connected to a P L that generates hundreds of millions of dollars you better believe that the execs up the chain of command will want to know how the money is being made To think otherwise would display a level of naivete not found in these markets What evidence do we learn this morning that supports my premise that senior execs on Wall Street were aware that Libor was being manipulated Let s navigate as the WSJ writes about the Many anonymous traders are implicated in the tall stack of documents regulators published this week detailing Royal Bank of Scotland Group attempts to rig the lending benchmark known as Libor But only one trader is cited by name a 33 year old so brainy yet socially awkward that colleagues nicknamed him Rain Man Regulators portray that man Tom Hayes as the connective tissue in pervasive efforts by several banks to boost trading profits by manipulating the London interbank offered rate Mr Hayes hopscotched from RBS to the Royal Bank of Canada to UBS to Citigroup Inc picking up the contacts and know how that would be necessary to game Libor In one electronic chat released in connection with regulators 612 million settlement with RBS this week Mr Hayes asked another bank to skew Libor too low for the next few days promising to return the favour as when you need it Yet Mr Hayes often acted with the knowledge of bosses mindful of his ability to rack up big trading profits When Citigroup in 2009 sought to lure him away from UBS with a 5 million job offer some at UBS fought to keep Mr Hayes by telling UBS executives of his ability to tap contacts who could nudge Libor up or down His strong connections with Libor setters in London are invaluable his boss wrote in an email to executives including one who now runs the bank s noncore division Mr Hayes hasn t filed a plea to the Department of Justice charges In a text message to The Wall Street Journal he said This goes much much higher than me Never a doubt How high What execs specifically Hayes has real leverage here He and his lawyers certainly know that The key question is how do regulators and judicial officials pursue this Boy would I love to be a fly on the wall or a bug in the phone to listen in on some of these conversations Honor amongst thieves Never But in regard to whether senior execs knew of the Libor manipulation I mean come on Are you kidding me The lawsuits should add Hayes quote to their pile of ammo and to their requests for discovery I wish I could get the movie rights to this one |
C | Top Trade Ideas For The Week of February 11 Bonus | Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten Citigroup Ticker CCitigroup C has been consolidating in a tightening range since the move higher out of the bull flag in December and over resistance at 38 70 A move over the top at 43 40 carries a target on a Measured Move to 46 25 and then 52 The Relative Strength Index RSI is bullish and holding over the mid line However the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator MACD continues to pullback but has a shallowing angle Support below is found at 41 and 39 60 followed by 38 70 and 37 50 Trade Idea 1 Buy the stock on a move over 43 40 with a 75 cent trailing stop Trade Idea 2 Buy the February22 44 Calls offered at 22 cents late Friday on a move over 43 40 Trade Idea 3 Buy the March15 44 Calls 73 cent on a move over 43 40 Trade Idea 4 Buy the February22 March15 45 Call Calendar 36 cents on a move over 43 40 Trade Idea 5 Buy the February22 March15 45 Call Calendar selling the March 38 Put 18 cents on a move over 43 40 The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog please see my page for my full disclaimer |
C | Dodd Frank s Impact On Advisers | California An Illustrative Example Of Dodd Frank s Impact upon Investment Advisers At The State Level Although most investment advisers are aware of the adjusted thresholds for federal and state registration under the Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 Dodd Frank one of the ongoing challenges for advisers is complying with registration requirements at the state level especially as state regulators scramble to recalibrate their investment adviser laws to better comport with federal law Each state presents its own unique evolving set of registration requirements and available exemptions from registration to advisers prohibited from registering with the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC generally advisers with less than 100 million in assets under management AUM and with a place of business in the state Post Dodd Frank EnvironmentWith that in mind it is especially important in the post Dodd Frank regulatory environment that advisers remain informed and up to date with respect to applicable state requirements Take California for example Prior to Dodd Frank California based advisers avoided registration by a state analogue to a federal exemption The exemption allowed a private advisor that did not hold itself out to the public as an investment adviser and had fewer than fifteen clients in the preceding twelve months to avoid registration provided that the advisor had at least 25 million in AUM Dodd Frank repealed the federal exemption which led to a state level abandonment of the exemption as well Many states including California sought to create a replacement rule to exempt private funds from registration On August 27 2012 the California Department of Corporations CDC adopted a new exemption from the state s investment adviser registration requirements for advisers to only qualified private funds 1 Qualifying FundsQualifying private funds include any fund relying on the exemptions from registration found in Sections 3 c 1 and 3 c 7 of the Investment Company Act of 1940 as amended as well as venture capital funds 2 The adviser seeking exemption must only manage qualifying funds any non qualifying funds or managed accounts prevent the adviser from seeking exemption under the private fund exemption Additionally private funds must be owned entirely by accredited investors and provide audited annual reports by an independent accountant Further a private fund adviser may only rely on the exemption if neither the adviser nor its advisory affiliates have any bad actor disqualifications the adviser files a truncated Form ADV for exempt reporting advisers with the CDC andthe adviser pays the required registration and annual renewal fees In addition an investment advisers relying on a now defunct exemption is grandfathered in to the foregoing exemption provided that the adviser stops selling interests in applicable funds to non accredited investors does not charge performance fees to subsequent non qualified clients and complies with all relevant registration and reporting requirements Keep in mind that the foregoing analysis is a high level overview of the new exemption and its impact upon affected advisers only 1 The full revision text is available at Jason Wallace IA brief California broadens scope of private adviser exemption Reuters Sept 12 2012 available at MM comment The following is courtesy of our legal counsel Cott Law Group P C Alex Meier also contributed to this article If you have further questions about regulatory issues for RIAs hedge funds or any other legal counsel needs feel free to contact them directly Kevin Cott Cott Law Group P C kevin cottlawgroup com |
C | Europe Is Fixed Just Like Wall Street Was Fixed In May 2008 | Europe Is Fixed Just Like Wall Street Was Fixed In May 2008 How d That Turn Out In 2008 as the financial crisis picked up steam one by one the big bank Wall Street CEOs came forward to assure everyone that everything is fine and that their banks were well capitalized Anyone who did a bit of actual research knew this was not the case But a large component of corporate and political leadership is to maintain confidence and calm no matter how bad things get As a result of this in May 2008 alone executives at Citigroup Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch all stated that the worst was over for financials That s right in just one month executives at ALL of these firms issued proclamations that everything was just dandy for the banks The market took about five months to realize the truth at which point these firms imploded taking the market with them I bring this up because we re seeing this same game played out on a much larger scale in Europe today Starting in November various political bigwigs from the EU whether it be Germany s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble France s Prime Minister Francois Hollande of Spain s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy have all stated that the EU Crisis is either over or that at least the worst of it is over It s rather incredible when you consider the complete and utter failure of these folks to solve the debt problems for a country as small as Greece which makes up only 2 of the EU s GDP Greece entered a crisis in 2010 Three years later its major banks are STILL insolvent the Greece economy has contracted over 20 the sort of collapse Argentina saw in 2001 when its entire financial system failed and nothing has been fixed So the EU with the help of the ECB IMF and the US Fed QE 2 and 4 were basically EU bank bailouts in disguise COULDN T SOLVE GREECE S PROBLEMS And we re supposed to believe that these folks can solve Spain Italy or even France s Let s cut through the crap here The European banking system is a complete and total disaster Remember how bad Wall Street was in 2008 Europe s banks are many multiples worse than that The US at least recapitalized its banking system after the Crisis Europe hasn t At all That s right the banks in Europe have not raised capital to bring down their leverage rations which is why the ENTIRE EU BANKING SYSTEM IS LEVERAGED AT 26 TO 1 Lehman which was a total sewer of garbage debt was leveraged at 30 to 1 Europe s ENTIRE SYSTEM is leveraged at 26 to 1 Let s take Spain by way of example In the run up to the Spanish banking crisis Spain sported a housing bubble that DWARFED the US s Spain is the DARK blue line in the chart below The US housing bubble is the little green lump below it How does a housing bubble get that out of control By banks lending to anyone with a pulse Indeed a little know fact is that the banks sitting on 56 of the Spanish mortgage market were TOTALLY unregulated up until about 2010 As bad as US lending standards leading up to our housing bust Spain had us beat by many multiples as the above chart illustrates The Spanish Government s solution to this mess was to merge one garbage bank with another They ve been doing this for three years but the Spanish banking system remains screwed up beyond anyone s comprehension Take Bankia for example Bankia was formed in December 2010 when the Spanish Government merged seven bankrupt smaller banks in The bank was touted as a success story posting a profit in 2011 and even considering paying a dividend Then the following happened in 2012 May 9th Bankia requests 4 5 billion loan Spanish Government states that the bank is solvent May 21st Spain meets Bankia s request for loan and takes a 45 stake in the bank thereby instigating a partial nationalization May 23rd Bankia s bailout needs grows to 11 billionMay 24th Bankia s bailout needs grow to 15 billionMay 25th Bankia s bailout needs are now 19 billion 2011 profits revised to 4 billion loss December 27th Spanish bailout fund announces that Bankia still has a negative value of 4 2 billion and will need another 13 5 billion in capitalJanuary 2nd 2013 Bankia shares halted on Spanish stock exchange As a summary Bankia was considered profitable in 2011 It was actually talking about paying out a dividend in April 2012 And in the following eight months it was discovered that the bank was not only un profitable but completely and totally insolvent Today nine months later the bank has swallowed up over 19 billion in bailouts and still has a NEGATIVE value With the additional 13 5 billion Spain claims it needs assuming that is the actual limit which I doubt the bank will have consumed over 32 billion in bailouts If you think Bankia is an isolated incident you re out of your mind The point of this Europe s banks are totally insolvent and have not been fixed No EU leader is going to tell you this because their jobs depend on convincing people that everything is fine Bankia was supposedly fine right up until the truth came out Just like the Wall Street banks were fine going into 2008 Just like Europe is fine today I know the markets have yet to fully realize this the S P 500 is approaching its all time highs But back in late 2007 the last time the markets were at this level did stocks get what was coming then too Nope And by the time stocks got it things moved VERY quickly So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure you NEED to do so NOW We re literally at most a few months and very likely just a few weeks from Europe s banks imploding potentially taking down the financial system with them Think I m joking The Fed is pumping hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into EU banks right now trying to stop this from happening |
JPM | JPMorgan to settle U S charges over asset unit s disclosures | By Sarah N Lynch WASHINGTON Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM is expected to strike a settlement with U S regulators on Friday to resolve charges over failing to disclose that it preferred putting clients into some of its own funds and other proprietary products according to people familiar with the matter The bank is expected to pay at least 200 million to resolve parallel civil charges by both the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission one of the people said on Thursday At issue is whether JPMorgan s asset management unit preferred putting clients into its own in house funds a practice that in turn let the bank earn a fee another person said Such arrangements were not properly disclosed the source told Reuters A spokesman for JPMorgan declined to comment on the pending settlement The sources asked not to be named because the settlement had yet to be made public JPMorgan previously disclosed the investigation to investors in its SEC filings In its quarterly report released in August the bank said it had received subpoenas from the SEC and other regulators over its disclosures concerning conflicts associated with its sale and use of in house products such as mutual funds and its wealth management business The investigation also covers its private bank disclosures in connection with the use of hedge funds that pay placement agents fees to the bank s brokerage affiliates the bank has said In September 2012 a group of wealth management and private banking clients filed a class action lawsuit against the bank saying JPMorgan placed its clients into funds and investments with fee based accounts Such actions the lawsuit alleges ran counter to the bank s fiduciary duties
A U S District Court judge dismissed the case in June 2013 and it is now being appealed in the U S Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit |
JPM | JP Morgan to pay 307 million to settle SEC CFTC disclosure charges | By Sarah N Lynch WASHINGTON Reuters JP Morgan Chase N JPM will pay 307 million to settle two U S government cases that charged the bank with failing to disclose certain conflicts of interest to some of its wealth management clients U S regulators said on Friday The Securities and Exchange Commission said that two of the bank s wealth management units have agreed to admit to wrongdoing and pay 267 million to settle the charges The bank will also pay 40 million to settle parallel charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission We have always strived for full transparency in client communications and in the last two years have further enhanced our disclosures in support of that goal said Darin Oduyoye a J P Morgan spokesman The disclosure weaknesses cited in the settlements were not intentional and we regret them he added The settlement announcement on Friday was anticipated and the bank had previously disclosed the investigation to investors in its corporate filings The SEC said the bank s wealth business preferred to invest its clients in its own proprietary products but J P Morgan failed to tell investors about this preference Between 2008 and 2013 that failure affected both retail mutual fund customers and high net worth clients who invested in hedge funds and mutual funds offered through J P Morgan s private bank the SEC said Julie Riewe a co chief of the SEC s asset management enforcement unit said on Friday the bank also breached its fiduciary duty by not telling customers they were being invested in a more expensive share class of proprietary mutual funds The CFTC s case meanwhile centered on a lack of disclosure to customers in commodity based hedge funds and mutual funds The CFTC said that JP Morgan s private bank did not disclose that it received performance fees from certain third party managed hedge funds Investors are entitled to know if a bank managing their money favors placing investments in its own proprietary funds or other vehicles that generate fees for the bank said Aitan Goelman the head of the CFTC s enforcement division |
JPM | JPMorgan to pay 150 million in London Whale U S class action | By Nate Raymond NEW YORK Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM has agreed to pay 150 million to resolve a securities fraud lawsuit by investors suing the bank over its London Whale trading scandal which caused a 6 2 billion loss The settlement was disclosed in papers filed on Friday in federal court in Manhattan and would resolve a class action lawsuit filed in the wake of the scandal that emerged in 2012 The lawsuit stemmed from oversight by JPMorgan s Chief Investment Office of a synthetic credit portfolio that caused the 6 2 billion loss and was linked to traders in the bank s London office including Bruno Iksil the so called London Whale Shareholders accused JPMorgan of knowingly hiding increased risks at the Chief Investment Office including on an April 13 2012 conference call when JPMorgan Chase Co Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon called reports about the synthetic portfolio a tempest in a teapot The settlement covers anyone who bought JPMorgan stock from April 13 to May 21 2012 a time when JPMorgan s share price fell by roughly one quarter and wiped out more than 40 billion of market value The lawsuit was spearheaded by pension funds in the U S states of Arkansas Ohio and Oregon and in Sweden Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine in a statement on Monday said the deal would help the state s Ohio Public Employees Retirement System recover its losses and discourage future fraud Misleading investors with wrong or incomplete information is unacceptable and causes real damage DeWine said A spokeswoman for JPMorgan did not immediately respond to a request for comment JPMorgan paid more than 1 billion and admitted wrongdoing to settle U S and British probes into London Whale losses Former traders Javier Martin Artajo and Julien Grout have been criminally charged in the United States with hiding losses linked to Iksil who has been cooperating with prosecutors
The cases is In re JPMorgan Chase Co Securities Litigation U S District Court Southern District of New York No 12 03852 |
JPM | Consumer business spending support U S third quarter growth | By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON Reuters The U S economy grew at a fairly healthy clip in the third quarter as strong consumer and business spending offset efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory glut underscoring its resilience despite a raft of headwinds
Gross domestic product grew at a 2 0 percent annual pace instead of the 2 1 percent rate reported last month the Commerce Department said in its third estimate on Tuesday
While that was a sharp deceleration from the brisk 3 9 percent pace logged in the April June period growth remained around the economy s long run potential
The Federal Reserve last week raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to between 0 25 percent and 0 50 percent the first increase in nearly a decade
The rate hike was a vote of confidence in the economy which has been buffeted by slower global demand a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector
This is not an economy that is just muddling along The GDP data today back up the Fed s decision to liftoff this month and paves the way for more rate hikes early in 2016 said Chris Rupkey chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York
While other data on Tuesday showed a surprise 10 5 percent plunge in home resales last month economists cautioned against reading too much into the drop noting that new mortgage disclosure rules had caused delays in closing contracts
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales tumbled to an annual rate of 4 76 million units the lowest level since April 2014 The drop is in stark contrast to robust housing starts new home sales and bullish homebuilder sentiment
Demand didn t change the processing rules did said Sal Guatieri a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto Look for a big time rebound in December as housing market fundamentals remain constructive including falling joblessness still low mortgage rates easing loan standards and plenty of pent up demand from millennials U S stocks were trading higher also bolstered by crude oil prices which eased off multi year lows U S Treasury debt prices fell and the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies
When measured from the income side the economy grew at a 2 7 percent pace not the 3 1 percent rate reported last month to account for a modest downward revision to corporate profits
INVENTORIES STILL HIGH
Businesses accumulated 85 5 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter instead of the 90 2 billion reported in November That meant the change in inventories sliced off 0 71 percentage point from third quarter GDP growth instead of the 0 59 percentage point the government estimated last month
A record increase in inventories in the first half of the years left warehouses bulging with unsold merchandise and businesses with little appetite to restock
Despite efforts to whittle down the stockpiles of unsold goods inventories remain relatively high and will probably weigh on growth in the fourth quarter Estimates for fourth quarter growth are currently around a 2 percent rate
The pace of stockbuilding is still quite rapid and implies a continued drag on output going forward as firms clear their shelves said Michael Feroli an economist at JPMorgan N JPM in New York There is some evidence that this process is well under way in the fourth quarter though it could conceivably restrain activity on into the first quarter
Consumer spending which accounts for more than two thirds of U S economic activity grew at a 3 0 percent rate in the third quarter as previously estimated Spending is being supported by a strengthening labor market and rising home values Savings which are near three year highs and low inflation are also helping to underpin consumption
Growth in business spending on equipment was raised to a 9 9 percent rate from a 9 5 percent pace There were upward revisions to investment in residential construction and government spending
The drag from trade was slightly larger than previously reported A measure of private domestic demand which excludes trade inventories and government spending was revised up one tenth of a percentage point to a 3 2 percent pace
There was a modest downward revision to investment in nonresidential structures to account for ongoing spending cuts by energy firms following a collapse in oil prices |
JPM | JPMorgan fined 48 million for failures in U S robo signing settlement | WASHINGTON Reuters JPMorgan Chase N JPM has been fined 48 million for failing to meet terms of a settlement to resolve mortgage servicing violations U S bank regulators said on Tuesday The fine will be on top of another 2 billion that JPMorgan had been ordered to pay to cover remediation costs and foreclosure assistance to borrowers the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said JPMorgan was among a number of banks which participated in a 2013 nationwide settlement with regulators over the practice of robo signing in which banks pursued faulty foreclosures by using defective or fraudulent documents The OCC also said Tuesday that EverBank N EVER will also pay a 1 million fine for similar violations connected to the mortgage servicing case |
BMY | Here Is Why Growth Investors Should Buy Bristol Myers BMY Now | Investors seek growth stocks to capitalize on above average growth in financials that help these securities grab the market s attention and produce exceptional returns But finding a great growth stock is not easy at all
That s because these stocks usually carry above average risk and volatility In fact betting on a stock for which the growth story is actually over or nearing its end could lead to significant loss
However the Zacks Growth Style Score part of the Zacks Style Scores system which looks beyond the traditional growth attributes to analyze a company s real growth prospects makes it pretty easy to find cutting edge growth stocks
Bristol Myers Squibb BMY is one such stock that our proprietary system currently recommends The company not only has a favorable Growth Score but also carries a top Zacks Rank
Research shows that stocks carrying the best growth features consistently beat the market And returns are even better for stocks that possess the combination of a Growth Score of A or B and a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy or 2 Buy
Here are three of the most important factors that make the stock of this biopharmaceutical company a great growth pick right now
Earnings Growth
Earnings growth is arguably the most important factor as stocks exhibiting exceptionally surging profit levels tend to attract the attention of most investors And for growth investors double digit earnings growth is definitely preferable and often an indication of strong prospects and stock price gains for the company under consideration
While the historical EPS growth rate for Bristol Myers is 20 3 investors should actually focus on the projected growth The company s EPS is expected to grow 12 3 this year crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of 3 5
Cash Flow Growth
While cash is the lifeblood of any business higher than average cash flow growth is more important and beneficial for growth oriented companies than for mature companies That s because growth in cash flow enables these companies to expand their businesses without depending on expensive outside funds
Right now year over year cash flow growth for Bristol Myers is 24 2 which is higher than many of its peers In fact the rate compares to the industry average of 11
While investors should actually consider the current cash flow growth it s worth taking a look at the historical rate too for putting the current reading into proper perspective The company s annualized cash flow growth rate has been 13 6 over the past 3 5 years versus the industry average of 5
Promising Earnings Estimate Revisions
Beyond the metrics outlined above investors should consider the trend in earnings estimate revisions A positive trend is a plus here Empirical research shows that there is a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near term stock price movements
The current year earnings estimates for Bristol Myers have been revising upward The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has surged 3 2 over the past month
Bottom Line
Bristol Myers has not only earned a Growth Score of B based on a number of factors including the ones discussed above but it also carries a Zacks Rank 2 because of the positive earnings estimate revisions
You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here
This combination positions Bristol Myers well for outperformance so growth investors may want to bet on it |
BMY | How Trading Your Own Retirement Can Fleece Your Financial Future December 24 2019 | You have a significant retirement portfolio You re an experienced investor You ve done pretty well at picking stocks You probably even own a few of Zacks Top Retirement stock picks like
Brinker International EAT Phillips 66 NYSE PSX Partners LP PSXP and Bristol Myers Squibb BMY
If that sounds like you should you actively trade your own retirement assets
Perhaps if you re the one in a million investor who can expertly manage risk and maintain unflinching emotional control in volatile markets But for most there may be better strategies to achieve long term retirement investing goals
Active stock trading requires an altogether different investing philosophy and risk reward understanding than building wealth for retirement
How Diversification Differs from Stock Picking
Picking individual stocks has the potential for huge returns but also carries a lot of risk which is particularly hazardous when investing for retirement
In fact a study done by Hendrik Bessembinder revealed that only 4 of equities produced all of the stock market s gains over the last 90 years All other stocks broke even with the increases of 38 canceled out by the losses of the bottom 58
For even the most talented stock pickers the odds for long term success are slim
Is Successful Investing a Mind Game
Investors feel they can make sensible choices however research demonstrates that the opposite is what often happens A DALBAR study analyzed investors from 1986 to 2015 and found that the average investor significantly underperformed compared to the S P 500 Over 30 years the S P 500 produced a return of 10 35 while the average investor return was only 3 66
Importantly this period included the 1987 crash and big bear markets in 2000 and 2008 but also the bull market of the 1990s
This study indicates that one key explanation behind investor underperformance is attempting to time volatile markets and that irrational emotional biases are likely to compound investor botches
Curiously even experienced traders tend to underperform since they can t resist the emotional urge to make impulsive investment choices They might be overly self assured and miscalculate risk get attached to a price target or perceive a pattern that does not exist This behavioral fallacy over the long term can be disastrous with potential underperformance of a huge number of dollars disrupting your retirement
What It All Means for Retirement Investors
When it comes to managing your assets for retirement you must look at performance over the course of years and decades not weeks or months Because most traders generally tend to focus on the short term they may not have the right mindset to achieve successful long term outcomes
We re not saying you should not trade at all far from it If you enjoy trading perhaps you should put 10 of your investable assets to work in short term investments to seek alpha and outsized returns
But the bulk of your wealth those assets earmarked for retirement should be invested using a more measured conservative risk management approach to generate steady compounded returns so you can safely reach your retirement goals
Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes
Whether you re planning to retire early or not don t let investing mistakes derail your plans
If you have 500 000 or more to invest and want to learn more click the link to download our free report 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement This report will help you steer clear of the most common mistakes like trying to time the market lack of diversification in your portfolio and many more Get Your FREE Guide Now |
BMY | Why Bristol Myers BMY Stock Might Be A Great Pick | One stock that might be an intriguing choice for investors right now is Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY This is because this security in the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals space is seeing solid earnings estimate revision activity and is in great company from a Zacks Industry Rank perspective This is important because often times a rising tide will lift all boats in an industry as there can be broad trends taking place in a segment that are boosting securities across the board This is arguably taking place in the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals space as it currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 14 out of more than 250 industries suggesting it is well positioned from this perspective especially when compared to other segments out there Meanwhile Bristol Myers is actually looking pretty good on its own too The firm has seen solid earnings estimate revision activity over the past month suggesting analysts are becoming a bit more bullish on the firm s prospects in both the short and long term Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price and Consensus In fact over the past month current quarter estimates have risen from 94 cents per share to 1 04 per share while current year estimates have risen from 4 38 per share to 4 47 per share This has helped BMY to earn a Zacks Rank 2 Buy further underscoring the company s solid position You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here So if you are looking for a decent pick in a strong industry consider Bristol Myers Not only is its industry currently in the top third but it is seeing solid estimate revisions as of late suggesting it could be a very interesting choice for investors seeking a name in this great industry segment Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
BMY | Top Ranked Momentum Stocks To Buy For December 30th | Here are four stocks with buy rank and strong momentum characteristics for investors to consider today December 30th HealthEquity Inc HQY This company that provides various solutions for managing health care accounts health reimbursement arrangements and flexible spending accounts for health plans insurance companies and third party administrators has a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy and witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 25 over the last 60 days HealthEquity Inc Price and Consensus HealthEquity s shares gained 20 3 over the last one month above the S P 500 s increase 4 1 The company possesses a of B HealthEquity Inc Price Sony Corporation SNE This company that designs develops produces and sells electronic equipment instruments and devices for the consumer professional and industrial markets has a Zacks Rank 1 and witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 7 7 over the last 60 days Sony Corporation Price and Consensus Sony s shares gained 7 1 over the last one month The company possesses a Momentum Score of B Sony Corporation Price Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY BMY This company that discovers develops licenses manufactures markets distributes and sells biopharmaceutical products has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 4 2 over the last 60 days Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price and Consensus Bristol Myers Squibb s shares gained 11 7 over the last one month The company possesses a Momentum Score of A Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ADPT This company that develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases has a Zacks Rank 2 and witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 55 3 over the last 60 days Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Price and Consensus Adaptive Biotechnologies shares gained 6 4 over the last one month The company possesses a Momentum Score of B Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Price See the Learn more about the Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit PotentialThe biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
BMY | BeiGene Gets Approval For Lymphoma Drug Tislelizumab In China | BeiGene Ltd NASDAQ BGNE announced that the National Medical Products Administration NMPA in China has approved its PD 1 inhibitor tislelizumab for the treatment of patients with classical Hodgkin s lymphoma cHL who received at least two prior therapies Following this nod tislelizumab became BeiGene s first drug to be approved in the country
The recommended approved dose of tislelizumab is 200 mg which is to be administered intravenously every three weeks until disease progression or intolerable toxicity
The approval in China was based on data from a single arm multi center pivotal phase II study called BGB A317 203 The study evaluated tislelizumab in the given patient population with a minimum follow up of 12 months and a median follow up of 14 months The objective response rate ORR was 76 9 and the complete response CR rate was 61 5 per the independent review committee
BeiGene is currently working with Boehringer Ingelheim for the commercial launch of tislelizumab in China
Shares of BeiGene have rallied 19 2 so far this year compared with the increase of 8 8
Tislelizumab is also being evaluated in several mid late stage studies for various oncology indications in the first line or later line settings Currently 15 registration enabling studies are ongoing to evaluate tislelizumab for treating several cancer indications such as lung liver esophageal and gastric cancers with more than 4 800 patients enrolled to date
Meanwhile a supplementary new drug application sNDA for tislelizumab is already accepted and granted a priority review by the Center for Drug Evaluation CDE at the NMPA The sNDA is seeking approval of tislelizumab for addressing previously treated patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma
Notably in November 2019 the FDA granted accelerated approval to Brukinsa zanubrutinib for the treatment of mantle cell lymphoma MCL in adult patients who received at least one prior therapy Post this nod Brukinsa became the first BeiGene discovered product to receive a regulatory approval
We remind investors that BeiGene markets and generates revenues from the sales of cancer drugs namely Abraxane Revlimid and Vidaza in China under a distribution license from Celgene NASDAQ CELG now part of Bristol Myers Squibb NYSE BMY
Zacks Rank Stocks to Consider
BeiGene currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Better ranked stocks in the biotech sector include Innoviva Inc NASDAQ INVA and Guardant Health Inc NASDAQ GH both sporting a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see
Innoviva s earnings estimates have moved 18 7 north for 2019 and 25 2 for 2020 over the past 60 days
Guardant Health s loss per share estimates have narrowed 30 7 for 2019 and 8 5 for 2020 over the past 60 days The stock has skyrocketed 109 6 so far this year
Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit Potential
The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
HAL | Do Not Be Fooled By Halliburton s Rally | Halliburton NYSE HAL stock reached as high as 74 33 in July 2014 but oil s crash took its toll on it
Currently Halliburton s shares are trading around 41 90 after recovering from the bottom at 27 63 registered on January 20th 2016
So is this rally going to continue and is it safe to trust it The chart below might provide an answer It shows the whole price development since the July 2014 top
The is a market forecasting method based on price pattern recognition It states that trends move in repetitive patterns called waves consist of five waves and indicate the direction of the larger trend
Every impulse is followed by a three wave correction in the opposite direction Once the correction is over the larger trend resumes in the direction of the impulsive sequence Now take a look at the daily chart of Halliburton stock again
The decline from 74 33 to 37 21 looks like a textbook five wave impulse So the rest of the price action has to be some kind of a corrective pattern In fact it appears to be an in progress If this is the correct count we should expect one last push by the bulls towards 50 20
However it should not be considered a buying opportunity because once wave C of 2 B is over Halliburton stock is likely to resume its downtrend in the face of wave 3 C to the south And you do not want to be on the long side when that happens |
HAL | HAL Stock Is About To Tank | Halliburton Company NYSE HAL has rallied for is third day in a row The stock is currently trading at 45 25 0 65 1 50 There are many bulls on board but they are all wrong The stock is set to fall sharply in the next few weeks collapsing to a probable target of 37 25 Below are the reasons this stock will collapse starting from its current level
HAL making lower highs
Price into key resistance trend line
Oil weak and more downside likely on the commodity
Halliburton HAL is still 65 above its 2016 lows
Daily three bar surge usually signals near term exhaustion
The bottom line is Halliburton Company NYSE HAL has a chart that signals major downside in the next few weeks Smart moving is selling while dumb money is buying Don t be the dumb money |
HAL | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Baker Hughes Halliburton Schlumberger And Weatherford International | For Immediate Release
Chicago IL July 07 2016 Zacks com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets Stocks recently featured in the blog include Baker Hughes Inc Halliburton NYSE HAL Co Schlumberger Ltd and Weatherford International plc
Today Zacks is promoting its Buy stock recommendations
Here are highlights from Wednesday s Analyst Blog
U S Rig Count Rises on Higher Oil Drilling Gas Rigs Fall
In its weekly release Houston based oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc reported a higher U S rig count number of rigs searching for oil and gas in the country than the previous week The West Texas Intermediate WTI oil futures are currently trading at around 49 per barrel Analysis of the Data
Weekly Summary Rigs engaged in exploration and production in the U S totaled 431 in the week ended Jul 1 2016 This was up by 10 from the week before
The current nationwide rig count is less than half the prior year level of 862 Notably the count had peaked at 4 530 in 1981 Inversely an all time low was recorded in March and since then the rig count has recovered marginally
Rigs engaged in land operations were 408 compared with 397 in the previous week Inland water activity involved four rigs up by one from the prior week Offshore drilling was down by two to 19 units
Natural Gas Rig Count The count fell by one from last week to 89 However the current natural gas rig count is almost 95 below the high of 1 606 reached in late summer 2008 In the year ago period there were 219 active natural gas rigs
Oil Rig Count The count was up by 11 from the previous week at 341 The number had skyrocketed to 1 609 in Oct 2014 the highest figure to have been reported since Baker Hughes started breaking up oil and natural gas rig counts in 1987 The current tally is well below the previous year s rig count of 640
Rig Count by Type The number of vertical drilling rigs was up by eight to 61 while the horizontal directional rig count encompassing new drilling technology that can drill and extract gas from dense rock formations also known as shale formations was up by two to 370
Gulf of Mexico GoM The GoM rig count was down by two to 18 units Conclusion
Key Barometer of Drilling Activity The Baker Hughes data issued since 1944 acts as an important yardstick for energy service providers in gauging the overall business environment of the oil and gas industry
An increase or decrease in the Baker Hughes rotary rig count weighs heavily on demand for energy services like drilling completion and production provided by companies that include large cap firms such as Halliburton Co Schlumberger Ltd and Weatherford International plc
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C | GLOBAL MARKETS Stocks euro jump after Slovakia deal on fund | World stocks at 3 week highs euro near 1 month peak
S P above 1 200 points Dow positive for the year
Brent crude extends gains Treasuries slide further
Spot gold off its intraday high
Updates prices
By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK Oct 12 Reuters Stocks climbed to three week
highs on Wednesday and the euro rose to its highest in nearly a
month against the dollar after Slovakia reached a deal to
strengthen the euro zone rescue fund boosting investor
confidence
On Wall Street the S P 500 traded above 1 200 for the
first time in three weeks taking the benchmark near the upper
end of a range where it has been stuck since early August The
S P has gained over 13 percent from last week s 2011 low while
the Dow industrials turned positive for the year
Brent crude oil rallied for a third straight day
O R helping the 19 commodity Reuters Jefferies CRB index
climb again after briefly posting losses earlier in the
session
Government bond prices fell with 10 year U S Treasury
notes in a dismal auction as fewer investors took to
safe havens amid a growing appetite for risk US Gold also
lost its safety appeal with bullion trading around
1 679 an ounce off its intraday high above 1 691
Investor appetite for risk heightened after lawmakers in
Slovakia struck a deal to ratify more powers for the euro
zone s rescue fund effectively ending for now a crisis for the
euro which also weighed on equities and other risky assets
Slovakia is the last country in the 17 member currency zone
left to approve the revamped European Financial Stability
Facility ID nL5E7LC0JT
Europeans feel very comfortable that a plan has been put
in place with respect to their banks and Greece and the EFSF
is going to solve the problem for now said Peter Boockvar
equity strategist at Miller Tabak Co in New York
Investors are also looking to the European Union to
announce a bank recapitalization plan designed to cushion the
impact any default by Greece could have on the region s banks
ID nL5E7LB30I ID nL5E7LC2BP
Markets are clearly still hoping for a comprehensive plan
to tackle the euro zone debt crisis This may continue to
support the market over the next couple of months said
Philippe Gijsels head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global
Markets
The euro extended gains helped partly by surprisingly
strong data on the euro zone s August industrial output
The euro rose 1 3 percent against dollar to
1 38209 after it broke an options barrier at 1 3700 It
touched a high of 1 38340 on the EBS trading platform its
strongest since Sept 16
The euro also rallied against the yen up more
than 2 percent peaking at 107 06 yen the highest since Sept
9
At 1 45 p m 1745 GMT the Dow Jones industrial average
was up 172 41 points or 1 51 percent at 11 588 71 The
Standard Poor s 500 Index was up 20 82 points or 1 74
percent at 1 216 36 The Nasdaq Composite Index was up
39 64 points or 1 53 percent at 2 622 67
Bank shares led the advance Citigroup gained 5 4
percent to 29 33
The MSCI world equity index gained 1 9
percent to 299 57 its highest since Sept 19 The benchmark
index is nearly 13 percent above a 15 month low hit just a week
ago
The broad FTSEurofirst 300 index of European stocks
rose 1 6 percent to close at a nine week high of
977 02 points
U S bonds extended losses after the Treasury auctioned 21
billion in 10 year notes The benchmark Treasury note
fell 28 32 in price to yield 2 2565 percent up
from 2 208 percent at Tuesday s close
The 30 year bond lost three points in price
yielding 3 24 percent up from 3 19 percent on Tuesday
Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Richard Leong
in New York and Natsuko Waki in London Writing by Barani
Krishnan Editing by Kenneth Barry |
C | EUR USD 1 3200 1 3400 Consolidation | EUR USD bounced sharply from the 1 3000 psychological level at the start of January which was most likely low of a red wave 2 Notice that bounce from 1 3 is very strong which typical represents third wave of a five wave Elliott Wave model As such we suspect that pair is at the start of a red wave 3 within an impulsive wave C that may reach even 1 4000 target in 2013 With that said we will continue to look higher as long as market trades above rising channel line from November lows and above 1 3000 psychological level Current slow price action around 1 3200 1 3400 range is just a minor pause within an uptrend |
C | Soothsayers Naysayers And Ostriches | January 2013 US stock markets are at record highs the volatility index the VIX is as quiet as a dormant caldera and hope the US economy is recovering is growing again as it has every January since 2010 Dow S P close at five year highs VIX plunges near 12 CNBC January 18 2012 It s darkest before the dawn is a saying often used to rally the dispirited The opposite sentiment it s brightest before the night instead cautions that unqualified optimism is just that unqualified Today hopes the global economy can overcome massive and historic levels of debt are again on the rise Those hopes unfortunately are as unfounded as Mitt Romney s presidential aspirations on November 6th JOHN EXTER THE CENTRAL BANKER WHO MADE A FORTUNE IN GOLDJohn Exter after graduating from college in 1932 pursued graduate studies at Harvard University in economics Exter wanted to understand the causes of the Great Depression which had brought economic activity in the US and around the world to a virtual halt during his youth As a banker and economist Exter was to have a storied career After being at MIT during WWII he joined the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve Bank as an economist In 1950 Exter founded and became governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon In 1953 he was division chief for the Middle East at the World Bank and in 1954 he returned to the New York Federal Reserve Bank as Vice President of International Relations and Precious Metals Operations In 1959 Exter left the Federal Reserve to become Vice President at First National City Bank now Citigroup with special responsibilities for foreign central banks and governments How Exter an economist a central banker and investment banker was to make a fortune in gold is told by W A Wijewardena Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon in an article published on the first anniversary of Exter s death at 95 on February 28 2006 With a huge fortune made on the gold market by using his own expertise on the foresight of irresponsible central banking and its inevitable consequences Exter took an early retirement in 1972 and went into private consultancy work According to his own admission the prospect for his fortune on gold dawned on him after a friendly debate he had in 1962 with his one time Harvard buddy and Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson In that debate on why the dollar was becoming weak and USA was losing gold Exter gave his diagnosis which was based on his experience with the Federal Reserve System Paul it is very simple The Fed is printing too many dollars and they flow out of the country into foreign central banks who demand gold Exter is reported to have said But Paul Samuelson did not accept it and wanted to explain the malady in terms of productivity differences between USA and other countries namely Europe and Japan Samuelson s thesis was that the latter category of countries had a higher productivity than USA and therefore the dollar was becoming weaker Exter says that he countered Samuelson saying that Japan was in more trouble than USA because the Bank of Japan was running its printing press even faster than the rest of the central banks around the world Exter had decided then and there that the irresponsible government expenditure by the Kennedy administration could not keep the dollar stable in the long run and one day gold would become the preferred asset by the world s nations Hence he says that he converted all his savings into gold based assets and waited patiently He was amply compensated in 1971 when the US government was forced to sever dollar s link with gold under the gold exchange standard and allow the gold prices to be determined in the free market Overnight gold prices doubled from 35 per ounce to 70 per ounce So did the gold based assets portfolio held by Exter At today s price of 1690 per ounce the appreciation of Exter s gold based portfolio would certainly be noteworthy In 1971 Exter had been at the epicenter of US discussions on gold President Nixon who closed the gold window in August 1971 was heavily influenced by the views of Milton Friedman who believed free market dynamics would better regulate paper currencies than the rigid discipline of gold Friedman was wrong Paul Volker then Under Secretary of the Treasury under Nixon had asked Exter s advice on the matter Exter recommended the US raise the price of gold to accommodate the growing pressure on the US dollar Volker said that wasn t politically possible Exter then told Volker that Volker had no choice but to close the gold window Two weeks later Nixon did just that Exter later commented on the significance of that act The final link between the dollar and gold was broken The dollar became nothing more than a fiat currency and the Fed and especially the banks were then free to continue monetary expansion at will The result was a massive explosion of debt Gold Wars Ferdinand Lips Foundation for the Advancement of Monetary Education New York 2001 Today Exter is best known for what is called Exter s inverse pyramid a model of what will happen during a deflationary collapse when investors flee increasingly illiquid assets for those offering safety and liquidity Ultimately the fatal flaw in the bankers paradigm of paper money is the hubris of central bankers themselves Economists had convinced themselves that by printing money they could achieve full employment Keynes that without gold free market forces would stabilize currencies Friedman and that by sufficiently expanding the money supply a deflationary collapse in demand i e depression could be prevented Friedman and or safely offset by increased borrowing Keynes Both Keynsians on the left and Friedmanites on the right were convinced that central bank stewardship of paper money was better done without the constraint of gold That somehow a house built on sand is preferable to one built on rock proving once again that if thought has no bounds neither does thoughtlessness Exter a friend of Ludwig von Mises was an adherent of the Austrian School of Economics an economic discipline shunned by house economists who much preferred the apparent opportunities afforded by credit and debt After a discussion of Exter s Austrian views Paul Samuelson told him John you may be right but you re lonely In a conversation I had with Exter s daughter Jane Exter Butler about her father she commented that she wished her father had lived long enough to see evidence of the economic collapse he had predicted Exter had passed away in 2006 two years before the collapse I replied that I was certain her father didn t need any such evidence Exter knew with complete certainty he was right as he still is today JOHN EXTER THE COMING DEPRESSION AND GOLD Exter s understanding of macro economic factors allowed him to accurately predict economic events Exter was certain another depression was coming and that it would be worse than what had happened in the 1930s The following is excerpted from a 1981 interview with Exter I lived through the great depression I remember it vividly I know what it did to people I remember the 25 unemployment So I m very unhappy when I have to say this depression is going to be worse A time will come when housing prices will weaken so much that many people who bought houses recently will lose all their equity Once they lose their equity they may say Why should I go on paying the bank Why don t I just let them have it So I think you re going to have defaults on mortgage loans and foreclosures More foreclosures of course put more pressure on home values Then more defaults and when people start to default on their debts troubles multiply This is one reason why I think we cannot avoid a banking collapse I think people have rather been seeing in their heart of hearts that a depression is coming or at least some sort of hard times When your income shrinks and you have a debt burden the debt burden becomes more and more onerous and you get desperate to borrow I expect the government to respond to the deflation by trying desperately to re inflate I expect huge budget deficits So I expect the dollar ultimately to become worthless The Federal Reserve has already defaulted gone bust When I was a young man the Fed had to redeem its liabilities in gold at 20 67 per ounce As a matter of practice any of us could go to any bank in the US and write a 100 check and take out five 20 gold pieces To maintain that obligation the Fed had to avoid borrowing short term and lending long term But it didn t As a result it had its own liquidity squeeze and defaulted on its IOUs the paper dollars circulating are not promises to pay anything They re IOU nothings Paper is worthless as a store of value The only thing that can give the US dollar any value is its promise to pay something that is a good store of value primarily gold to the holder The government now has welched on that promise so these paper IOUs are not really worth anymore than the paper they are printed on Sooner or later the public will catch on and the dollar will become worthless As the crisis intensifies as the results of the liquidity squeeze become apparent and illiquid debtors start to default as the depression and deflation set in gold will once again emerge as the supreme store of value This is hard for me to say for I am a banker On the subject of income I d definitely stay away from banks Bank deposits are paper IOUs A bank owes you Federal Reserve notes Even Federal Reserve notes are not good A bank is even worse because you have the added risk that it will default on its promise to pay such notes Remember gold never defaults HELICOPTER BEN BERNANKE KAMAKAZI SHINZO ABE ARE 2013 CO SPONSORS OF EXTER S PREDICTED DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE In October 2011 Jay Taylor an expert on gold stocks interviewed Exter s son in law Barry Downs During the interview Downs discussed the signs Exter said to watch for signs which would signal the approach of the coming economic downturn In credit based economies aggregate debt levels must constantly grow and when they don t it signals the economy is entering a dangerous phase and if aggregate debt contract i e shrink that is a far more dangerous sign That signals a deflationary depression is beginning and in 2008 Downs noted that levels of aggregate debt began to shrink Note Taylor s interview with Barry Downs begins at the 20 minute mark and ends at the 30 minute mark see This is why the Fed the Bank of Japan the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have thrown caution to the wind in a desperate and last ditch attempt to save their ponzi scheme of credit and debt that has served them so well Exter told Barry Downs that once aggregate debt levels began shrinking nothing central bankers could do could reverse the process A tidal wave of deleveraging debt would sweep aside any and all attempts to inject enough credit to reverse the process QE3 will be no more effective than QE1 nor will QE4 or QE5 No amount of bond buying no amount of credit can turn back the tsunami of defaulting debt that has already begun to gather momentum The tipping point has been reached Excessive central bank credit has turned into such levels of debt that no amount of credit can subsume it This is why it s called the end game Credit based capitalism was headed towards this finale in 1694 In 2013 it arrived The Japanese central bank said it would aim to achieve a rate of 2 per cent inflation up from its current goal of 1 per cent at the earliest possible time by shifting to the kind of limitless stimulus embraced by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB Financial Times January 21 2013 THE END GAME AND THE BETTER TIMES TO COME Ben Bernanke s belated attempts to restore US employment levels and economic growth through even more monetary easing is as futile as Lance Armstrong s attempts to salvage his tattered reputation No amount of optimism no amount of denial and no amount of credit can fix what central bankers themselves broke Nothing lasts forever Not even the dream of bankers who attempted to live off the productivity ingenuity and labor of others merely by printing debt based paper coupons they could loan to others as money Remember gold never defaults John Exter In my current youtube video I explain how the banker s paradigm arose I also show how the collapse of the bankers paradigm coincides with the end of a far older and far more fundamental paradigm gender inequality see It might be assumed by readers that my expectation of another depression is evidence of a pessimistic outlook Nothing could be farther from the truth After the coming collapse I expect a far better world will emerge and although the process will not be easy it will be rewarding beyond our greatest expectations John Exter in his wisdom firmly believed that when laws fail human beings working with moral consciousness could do wonders W A Wijewardena Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon the vulture feeds neither upon the pastures of the bull nor the stored up wealth of the bear The vulture feeds instead upon the blind ignorance and denial of the ostrich Darryl Robert Schoon 3rd ed 2012 Buy gold buy silver have faith |
C | USD JPY Corrective Pull back May Extend To 86 80 | USD JPY reversed lower in the past 48 hours from a new high printed above 90 figure Notice that pair extended slightly through the impulse channel support line connected from blue wave three and four and is now testing levels of 87 80 support Typical the former wave four will be ideal zone for a continuation of a larger trend which in our case that would be to the upside However decline from 90 26 was made only in one leg that can be counted impulsively which means that pair will most likely extend even deeper in black wave 4 since we need three waves of decline because that s the minimum structure of a corrective price action The next thing is that broken trend line will also turn in to a resistance which could happen in minor wave b pull back to 89 30 and cause a new sell off in wave c of 4 With that said we see room for further USD JPY weakness towards 86 80 while pair is capped below 90 26 Larger daily picture for USD JPY also suggests that deeper pull back is underway after completed five waves up in wave 3 with bearish divergence at the top |
JPM | Weak U S inventories seen weighing on fourth quarter growth | By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON Reuters U S wholesale inventories fell in October as businesses stepped up efforts to reduce stockpiles of unsold merchandise suggesting inventories would again be a drag on growth in the fourth quarter The Commerce Department said on Wednesday wholesale inventories slipped 0 1 percent as stocks of both durable and nondurable goods fell September inventories were revised down to show them increasing only 0 2 percent instead of rising 0 5 percent as previously reported Inventories help drive changes in gross domestic product The component of wholesale inventories that goes into the calculation of GDP wholesale stocks excluding autos also dipped 0 1 percent A record back to back increase in inventories in the first two quarters of this year left warehouses bulging with unsold merchandise and businesses with little appetite to restock Inventories subtracted 0 56 percentage point from GDP growth in the third quarter That restricted GDP growth to an annualized rate of 2 1 percent The drop in wholesale inventories in October prompted economists to trim their fourth quarter growth estimates by as much as two tenths of a percentage point to a 1 7 percent rate We think that the drag from inventories in the fourth quarter will be more severe than we had previously believed said Daniel Silver an economist at JPMorgan N JPM in New York Given downward revisions to September data economists said they expected the third quarter GDP estimated would be lowered to a 1 9 percent pace when the government publishes its second revision later this month Data last week showed manufacturing inventories fell for a fourth straight month in October Retail inventory data on Friday could shed more light on the magnitude of the anticipated inventory drag in the final three months of the year
Sales at wholesalers were unchanged in October after increasing 0 5 percent in September Sales have been soft since last August in part due to the negative impact of lower oil prices on the value of petroleum products sales At October s sales pace it would take 1 31 months to clearshelves unchanged from September This is a relatively high ratio and suggests that businesses are unlikely to ramp up their pace of inventory accumulation any time soon |
JPM | JPMorgan shuffles executives in consumer unit | By Dan Freed Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM has shuffled executives within its consumer unit according to an internal memo from Gordon Smith its chief executive officer Kevin Watters 46 head of mortgage will replace Eileen Serra 61 as head of the card business Watters who started at the bank in 1999 has held several senior roles including head of digital CEO of business banking and head of mortgage originations When you think about common themes across the businesses it s how do we deliver a great customer experience Watters said Serra who joined JPMorgan in 2006 wants to better balance her time and will stay on in a consulting role Smith s memo stated Mike Weinbach 42 will take over for Watters as head of mortgage Weinbach currently oversees mortgage servicing which is essentially debt collecting The homeowner is getting much healthier so if you look at the number of underwater homes in the U S it s down by almost two thirds from the peak in 2010 and our portfolio s gotten healthier at an even faster clip than that Weinbach told Reuters |
JPM | Volatility the surest bet in stocks after Fed meets | By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK Reuters Stock market investors are ready for the first U S Federal Reserve interest rate hike in nearly a decade next week but they may not be fully prepared for all of the nuanced remarks likely to accompany that announcement
If the Fed lays out an aggressive schedule of future rate increases stock markets could become very volatile and even plummet say strategists who expect a market calming central bank announcement detailing the patience of policymakers
Activity in the options market suggests stock traders are being cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting on Dec 15 16 and options expiry at the end of next week could amplify volatility in either direction
If policymakers came out saying that over the next two years they will raise by this much that would be very destabilizing said Brian Battle director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago
The market will take great relief in the Fed communicating it will be very patient for the next increase
Even so traders hoping to profit on the Fed s expected statement lack a playbook The markets haven t been through the current scenario of a rate lift off after years in which the central bank s short term interest rates have been locked near zero
That could partly explain the jittery trading on Wall Street this week during which volatility has risen and the benchmark S P 500 dropped 3 5 percent
A slew of economic data due to be released before the Fed meeting including readings on growth in manufacturing industrial production and consumer prices could cause some choppiness if traders take any robust data as a sign that the Fed may be more aggressive with future rate increases
Furthermore markets could face an interruption next week if Congress and President Barack Obama trigger a government shutdown by failing to finish work on a 1 5 trillion government funding bill
OPTIONS POSITIONING
That uncertainty has helped trigger bets in the options market by investors trying to cover themselves against a wide array of outcomes in stocks and similar uncertainty has been apparent across other asset classes as well
Crude oil futures fell to seven year lows while the euro expected to decline against the dollar as the Fed tightens rallied after many covered those bets
As expected exchange traded funds and individual stocks in rate sensitive sectors such as financial firms and real estate investment trusts have attracted a lot of options trading activity betting on sharp moves in both directions in the wake of a Fed announcement
We are seeing a lot of heavy positioning in front of the Fed said Steven Sosnick equity risk manager for Timber Hill the market making division of Interactive Brokers
That positioning is leaning more heavily toward seeking protection against a broad stock market move lower said traders who expect volatility to spike after the Fed meeting
S P 500 SPX options expiring next Friday imply a 2 9 percent move in the index by the end of the week
The CBOE Volatility Index VIX the market s favored barometer of trader angst has crept over its long term average of 20 after having stayed mostly below that level since early October On Friday it was up 28 percent at 24 72
That level is higher than futures show the VIX going forward signifying that traders are more worried about near term volatility than they are about a long term breakdown
But a sharp move to the downside could be amplified since the Fed decision comes just two days ahead of quadruple witching when options on stocks and indexes and futures on indexes and single stocks all expire making the index particularly prone to a jump in volatility
JPMorgan N JPM derivatives analysts estimate that nearly 1 1 trillion of S P 500 options are set to expire on Friday morning about 60 percent in put options typically used as portfolio hedges
In case of an adverse reaction in stocks the accumulation of large blocks of open SPX put contracts at the 2 000 1 950 and 1 900 levels could force more selling Market makers who have sold those contracts would be forced to sell equities to reduce their risk
This kind of activity was one of the key reasons for the market selloff in late August when the S P entered its first correction in more than four years |
JPM | Hong Kong watchdog fines JPMorgan for dark pool control failures | By Michelle Price
HONG KONG Reuters Hong Kong s securities watchdog said on Tuesday it had fined JPMorgan N JPM HK 30 million 3 87 million for a range of control failures including breaches in its dark pool business
The U S bank is the latest institution to fall foul of a broader crackdown by the Securities and Futures Commission SFC on electronic trading and dark pools in the financial center
The SFC said in a statement published on Tuesday the bank s Hong Kong broking business had mistakenly routed principal orders into its off exchange dark pool trading platform despite advising the SFC the pool only matched client trades
Control failures also led the bank s broking and securities units to breach the rules governing how short sale trades are aggregated and documented The SFC also found that 14 principal traders had been given incorrect access rights allowing them to see client orders
The breaches occurred between May 2010 and December 2012
We have fully co operated with the SFC and are pleased to have resolved these legacy issues in relation to certain aspects of our systems and controls in the institutional equities business in Hong Kong a spokeswoman for JPMorgan said in a statement The firm has strengthened its internal systems and controls to ensure compliance with the prevailing rules and regulations
She added that the fine does not affect the bank s ability to continue serving clients
JPMorgan is the latest bank to be penalized for failings in its Hong Kong electronic trading franchise after the SFC stepped up scrutiny of this business amid a global regulatory push to clamp down on automated trading and dark pools
Dark pools are off exchange share trading platforms that allow investors to keep their orders secret with prices displayed after a transaction has taken place
French lender BNP Paribas PA BNPP Asia unit paid HK 15 million 1 9 million to the SFC for dark pool control failures in August while HSBC was fined HK 5 million 640 000 in 2013 for providing inaccurate information about its dark pool
Critics of the platforms say they distort public markets and disadvantage traditional investors while their proponents say they offer an important source of liquidity
The total SFC fine which comprises three separate penalties levied on the bank s three separate broking and securities Hong Kong entities is one of the largest ever issued by the SFC although it remains small compared with U S and European penalties |
BMY | Here s Why Bristol Myers Squibb BMY Is A Great Momentum Stock To Buy | Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock s recent trend which can be in either direction In the long context investors will essentially be buying high but hoping to sell even higher And for investors following this methodology taking advantage of trends in a stock s price is key once a stock establishes a course it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path it will lead to timely and profitable trades
Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic it can be tough to define Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy but the Zacks Momentum Style Score part of the Zacks Style Scores helps address this issue for us
Below we take a look at Bristol Myers Squibb BMY which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score like price change and earnings estimate revisions
It s also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance Bristol Myers Squibb currently has a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy and 2 Buy and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one month period
You can see the current list of Zacks 1 Rank Stocks here
Set to Beat the Market
Let s discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for BMY that show why this biopharmaceutical company shows promise as a solid momentum pick
Looking at a stock s short term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment It is also useful to compare a security to its industry as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area
For BMY shares are up 6 46 over the past week while the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is up 1 02 over the same time period Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too as the monthly price change of 10 15 compares favorably with the industry s 5 16 performance as well
While any stock can see a spike in price it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market Over the past quarter shares of Bristol Myers Squibb have risen 25 69 and are up 24 7 in the last year In comparison the S P 500 has only moved 6 23 and 24 16 respectively
Investors should also take note of BMY s average 20 day trading volume Volume is a useful item in many ways and the 20 day average establishes a good price to volume baseline a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish Right now BMY is averaging 28 426 410 shares for the last 20 days
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things including estimate revisions and a stock s price movement Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank and a nice path here can be promising We have recently been noticing this with BMY
Over the past two months 5 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year These revisions helped boost BMY s consensus estimate increasing from 4 28 to 4 47 in the past 60 days Looking at the next fiscal year 4 estimates have moved upwards while there have been 1 downward revision in the same time period
Bottom Line
Taking into account all of these elements it should come as no surprise that BMY is a 2 Buy stock with a Momentum Score of A If you ve been searching for a fresh pick that s set to rise in the near term make sure to keep Bristol Myers Squibb on your short list |
BMY | Know These 3 Facts To Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income To The IRS December 19 2019 | Neglecting to withdraw a required minimum distribution RMD from an IRA by the due date brings about a painful tax code penalty 50 Yes you read that right If you are supposed to withdraw at least 4 000 and uh oh did not do as such you have to write the IRS a check for 2 000
In case you re like most investors you re probably trying to build a financial portfolio that is solid enough to guarantee a comfortable retirement Among retirement financial planners this is known as the accumulation phase In this stage your objective is to carefully invest by selecting stocks with long term potential for your retirement nest egg For example you might choose Bristol Myers Squibb BMY which is a current top ranked dividend stock
But there is a second phase of retirement planning that gets less attention even though it s the more enjoyable part It s the distribution phase which simply means spending the assets you ve worked so hard to accumulate
Making plans for the distribution stage involves deciding where you ll live in retirement whether you ll travel your proposed leisure activities and more decisions that will affect your spending during your golden years
In addition to these considerations it is essential to take into account the required minimum distribution RMD that applies to most retirement accounts Basically this is an IRS requirement that you withdraw a certain amount from your qualified retirement accounts once you reach age 70 1 2
Why does the IRS require these distributions It s straightforward they need to ensure they get their tax In the event that this standard didn t exist individuals could live off other pay and never pay tax on their retirement investment returns So that cash could be left to family or companions as an inheritance without the IRS getting any taxes from you
Key Facts to Know About RMDs
What types of retirement accounts have RMDs Qualified retirement accounts such as IRA accounts 401 k s 457 plans and other tax deferred retirement savings plans like a TSP 403 b TSA SEP or SIMPLE IRA plan require withdrawals in retirement
When do I have to start taking distributions For most accounts you must take your first distribution by April 1 of the year following the calendar year in which you reach age 70 1 2
Every year after your start date you are required to take your RMD by December 31 Remember for Roth IRAs you do not have to take an RMD because you paid taxes before contributing However other types of Roth accounts do require RMDs but you may be able to avoid them for instance by rolling your Roth 401 k into your Roth IRA
What happens if don t take my RMD The penalty for not taking a required minimum distribution or if the distribution is not large enough is a 50 tax on the amount not withdrawn in time
How much cash do I need to withdraw To figure out a particular RMD you should divide your earlier year s December 31st retirement account balance by a distribution period factor dependent on your age
Here s an example to give you an idea of the math Ann is 70 and will take her first RMD in the year she turns 70 1 2 Her IRA balance toward the end of the preceding year was 100 000 Her distribution period factor is 27 4 Dividing 100 000 by 27 4 equals 3 649 63 This is the amount Ann is required to withdraw for the calendar year in which she turns 70 1 2
Learning about the distribution phase is just one aspect of preparing for your nest egg years
To learn more about the tax implications of retirement spending and much more about retirement planning download our free guide Retirement Made Easy You ll find useful detailed steps to help you navigate both the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement planning Get Your FREE Guide Now |
HAL | Top Trade Ideas Halliburton | Halliburton NYSE HAL started lower with oil prices in July 2014 The pace of decline slowed in 2015 and it found a bottom in February 2016 In fact it was a double bottom as it is now confirmed with a move over the October and November 2015 consolidation area
In April the price also pushed over the 200 day SMA for the first time since October 2014 This was followed in May with a golden cross the 50 day SMA crossing up through the 200 day SMA
The price action is building a 3 wave pattern now that targets 47 50 on the third leg This would be confirmed on a move over the May 2nd high It has support to move up from the rising and bullish RSI and the rising MACD The Bollinger Bands are also opening to the upside That would put the stock within a stone s throw of the May 2015 high at 50
There is resistance along the way at 42 95 and 44 50 followed by 46 40 then 48 15 and 50 Support lower comes at 41 50 and 40 followed by 38 60 Short interest is low at 2 8 and the company is expected to report earnings next on July 20th
The options chains show most of the open interest this week below the current price The call side is biggest at 42 and the put side from 41 to 41 50 In the June monthly expiry the largest open interest is above at the 44 strike calls with big size at the 42 call as well and then smaller at the 40 put
The July monthly expiry is also largest on the call side this time at 42 and then 41 but all the put action below from 41 to 35 The July 22 expiry the first after the earnings report is just starting to build
Finally the August open interest is also small relative to June and July but focused below the current price
Trade Idea 1 Buy the stock on a move over 43 with a stop at 41 25
Trade Idea 2 Buy the stock and add a July 22 expiry 42 5 40 put spread offered at 90 cents and sell a July 22 expiry 46 covered call 54 cents
Trade Idea 3 Buy a July 42 call and sell a June 44 call 1 71 for a call diagonal
Trade Idea 4 Buy a July 40 42 46 bullish call spread risk reversal 1 06
Trade Idea 5 Sell a June 43 straddle 1 67 and buy a July 22 expiry 43 straddle 3 59
Trade 1 is a straight stock buy and Trade 2 adds protection with a collar though earnings for an extra 36 cents Trade 3 looks for the upside with the large open interest in June options to hold it at 44 next week then continue Trade 4 looks for a run up into earnings and for the stock to remain over 40 along the way Trade 5 looks to give an earnings set up to move either way with nearly half the cost funded if it does not move much the next 2 weeks |
C | UPDATE 14 Oil falls 2 percent as Europe weighs | Repeating to add UPDATE 14 to headline
US crude product inventories down sharply last week API
Brent US crude rally in post settlement trade after API
Goldman cuts 2012 Brent forecast to 120 bbl from 130
Coming up EIA inventory data at 1630 GMT Wednesday
Updates with oil turning positive after API data
By Matthew Robinson
NEW YORK Oct 4 Reuters Oil fell 2 percent on Tuesday
dragged down by concerns Europe s debt problems would hurt
banks and add further pressure to the global economy
Brent crude slid into bear market territory defined as a
20 percent fall from recent highs as optimism from comments by
U S Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke proved fleeting
ID nN1E7931F1
The Fed is prepared to take further steps to help an
economy that is close to faltering Bernanke said on Tuesday
in his bleakest assessment yet of the fragile U S recovery
ID nN1E7930IZ
Fresh concerns about the euro zone crisis came as European
officials postponed a vital aid payment to debt stricken
Greece sending Brent below 100 a barrel in early trade for
the first time since August as the gloomy outlook stirred
worries over struggling fuel demand ID nL5E7L419D
There are concerns that the situation in Europe is going
to spread and Bernanke said that while the Fed stands ready to
help us but he was not overly optimistic said Phil Flynn
analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago
With stocks taking a turn into bear market territory
there are concerns that this signals a turn into recession and
that is not good for oil demand
Goldman Sachs which has been typically bullish for
commodities sounded another note of caution as it cut its 2012
forecast for Brent by 10 to 120 a barrel ID nL5E7L41EN
Graphic
Brent crude for November delivery settled 1 92
lower at 99 79 a barrel the lowest settlement since February
and off 21 percent from the 2011 peak over 127 hit in April
U S crude futures fell 1 94 to settle at 75 67 a
barrel the lowest close since September 2010
Prices found support in post settlement trading after
weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute showed deep
drawdowns in crude and refined product inventories sending
Brent up to 101 84 a barrel and U S crude to 77 83 by 4 50
p m EDT 2050 GMT
Crude stockpiles fell by 3 1 million barrels in the week to
Sept 30 with gasoline inventories down 5 million barrels and
distillates off 2 million barrels the API data showed
The market will now await confirmation of the data from the
U S Energy Information Administration s report due out early
Wednesday ID nEAP104400
The data seem to contradict the recent poor demand
readings although tertiary demand for heating oil ahead of
the fall season is not unexpected and may help to skew the
numbers said John Kilduff partner at hedge fund Again
Capital LLC in New York
Trading volumes were strong with Brent trading 42 percent
over the 30 day average in its heaviest trading day since June
while U S oil futures traded 18 percent over the 30 day
average
OPEC
Brent could come under further pressure if OPEC member
Libya restores output disrupted by the civil war faster than
expected Libya will start pumping crude at two major oilfields
in about two weeks doubling production to 700 000 barrels a
day by year end the head of its National Oil Corp told
Reuters ID nL5E7L33YY
Qatar said that while it was closely monitoring the impact
of the economic crisis on oil demand it did not see a need for
OPEC to meet before its next scheduled gathering in December
ID nL3E7L40D1
Traders were also watching clashes in the oil rich Eastern
Province of top OPEC crude exporter Saudi Arabia for any signs
of a threat to the market ID nL5E7L437Y
Reporting by Matthew Robinson Robert Gibbons and Gene Ramos
in New York Zaida Espana in London Seng Li Peng and Randy
Fabi in Singapore Editing by David Gregorio and Andrea Evans |
JPM | Exclusive Barclays boss wants Blythe Masters to run investment bank source | By Michael Erman and Steve Slater NEW YORK LONDON Reuters New Barclays Plc L BARC Chief Executive Jes Staley approached his former JPMorgan N JPM colleague Blythe Masters about running the British bank s investment bank division a person familiar with the matter said on Wednesday But Masters told Reuters she was fully committed to running her company Digital Asset Holdings a startup designed to speed the trading of derivatives by using technology associated with bitcoin She joined the company as chief executive in March I can t think of a better person than Jes Staley nor a more venerable institution than Barclays but I am in mid flight at Digital Asset and fully committed to what we are doing Masters said Staley spoke to Masters about joining the bank late next year the source said He declined to be named because details of the approach were confidential A spokesman for Barclays declined to comment Masters best known for helping to create the credit derivatives market in the 1990s was the most high profile woman on Wall Street when she left JPMorgan last year after a 27 career with the bank Barclays is shrinking its investment banking business and its current boss Tom King threatened to quit in the summer during a row with then CEO Antony Jenkins over the future of the division people familiar with the matter told Reuters at the time Chairman John McFarlane persuaded King to stay but the row contributed to the ousting of Jenkins shortly after by McFarlane the sources said There has been speculation in the media that King would retire next year King did not respond to Reuters requests for comment The potential hire would be the latest step in Barclays efforts to remake itself after being rocked by a series of scandals including its role in fixing the benchmark interest rate known as Libor Staley who used to run JPMorgan s investment bank only started as Barclays chief executive on Tuesday and is under pressure to set out a clear vision for the investment bank where returns are the weakest in the group and costs need to be cut There have been multiple shifts in its strategy in recent years and it is now focusing on its core U S and UK markets and cutting about 7 000 jobs CONTROVERSY If Masters joined Barclays the bank s top three executives including Finance Director Tushar Morzaria would all be JP Morgan veterans The U S bank s alumni feature heavily in the upper echelons of financial services including Bill Winters the new chief executive at Standard Chartered L STAN Peter Hancock the boss at insurer AIG and Charlie Scharf the chief executive of Visa Masters who was born in Oxford and grew up in Britain started off in JP Morgan as an intern and worked her way up to run the bank s commodities trading operation delivering pep talks to New York traders with a cut glass English accent A controversial figure she helped develop and market credit derivatives which were meant to insure investors if a loan went into default but instead blew huge holes in the balance sheet of financial firms such as insurer AIG during the 2007 08 financial crisis She was the chief financial officer of JP Morgan s investment bank from 2004 to 2007 before switching to run the commodities business which she built into one of the biggest players in the industry She was back in the spotlight in July 2013 when JP Morgan agreed to pay 410 million to settle U S Federal Energy Regulatory Commission allegations that units Masters oversaw manipulated power markets enriching itself at the expense of California and Midwest residents from 2010 to 2012 JPMorgan sold its physical commodities arm in 2014 as regulatory changes made it a less profitable business for banks and Masters left the bank Michael Holland who oversees more than 4 billion as founder of Holland co said Masters would be a good choice for the job when judged solely on her merits but given her past controversies the optics of the choice could make her a tough sell to investors
Does Barclays really need this Because they ve had enough headlines over the last few years that have given people pause he said |
JPM | U S services sector cools but economy growing at moderate pace | By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON Reuters U S services sector activity slowed in November but remained at levels consistent with a steady pace of economic growth for the fourth quarter a business survey showed on Thursday Other data reported a small increase in first time applications for unemployment benefits last week but planned job cuts announced by companies in November were the fewest in 14 months With the labor market showing resilience economists say it is almost certain the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the Dec 15 16 meeting for the first time in nearly a decade It will take some pretty bad economic numbers for the Fed to pull back from the brink said Joel Naroff chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland Pennsylvania Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Thursday that the U S central bank was close to lifting its key overnight interest rate from near zero Yellen gave an upbeat view of the economy saying growth is likely to be sufficient over the next year or two to result in further improvement in the labor market The U S Institute for Supply Management on Thursday said its index of non manufacturing activity fell to 55 9 last month from a reading of 59 1 in October A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the service sector The new orders index dropped fell 4 5 points to 57 5 last month There were also declines in measures of services sector employment backlogs and export orders Deliveries are slowing and inventories are still considered high which could constrain order growth in the months ahead Twelve services industries including real estate retail transportation and warehousing finance and insurance and public administration reported growth last month The six industries reporting contraction included wholesale trade utilities and agriculture The report came after news this week from ISM that the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time in three years Still economists said the soft services sector survey did not signal a slowdown in gross domestic product growth from the third quarter s 2 1 percent annual rate Even after this drop off the latest figure was still consistent with real GDP growth of around 2 25 percent said Daniel Silver an economist at JPMorgan N JPM in New York There was little market reaction to the U S economic data but the U S dollar dropped to a near one month low against the euro after the European Central Bank unveiled a smaller interest rate cut and bond purchases than investors had anticipated U S stocks and Treasury debt prices were trading lower LABOR MARKET RESILIENCE In second report the U S Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9 000 to a seasonally adjusted 269 000 in the week ended Nov 28 It was the 39th straight week that claims held below 300 000 which is normally associated with a healthy labor market Claims are near levels last seen in 1973 and there is little room for further declines as the labor market normalizes The four week moving average of claims considered a bettermeasure of labor market trends as it strips out week to weekvolatility fell 1 750 to 269 250 last week In a third report global outplacement consultancy Challenger Gray Christmas Inc said U S based firms announced 30 953 job cuts in November the smallest amount since September 2014 and down 39 percent from October There were 1 355 oil related job cuts the fewest since June Last week s jobless claims have no bearing on Friday s U S Labor Department employment report for November as they fall outside the survey period According to a Reuters survey of economists nonfarm payrolls likely increased 200 000 last month after rising 271 000 in October The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at a 7 1 2 year low of 5 percent The claims data suggest that the trend in employment growth remains more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down over time said Jim O Sullivan chief U S economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla New York
In a fourth report the U S Commerce Department said new orders for manufactured goods increased 1 5 percent after two straight months of declines on rising demand for transportation equipment and a range of other goods nLNN3NEBJ0 |
JPM | JPMorgan defeats London Whale shareholder lawsuit in U S | By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK Reuters A federal appeals court said JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and other bank officials need not face a shareholder lawsuit claiming they did a bad job investigating the 2012 London Whale trading scandal that caused 6 2 billion of losses The 2nd U S Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday said the plaintiff Ernesto Espinoza did not show that JPMorgan s board was grossly negligent or engaged in bad faith in probing the losses and whether bank officials publicly downplayed them and in deciding not to sue the people involved JPMorgan suffered losses in its chief investment office because of derivative bets by Bruno Iksil known as the London Whale because of the size of his wagers Dimon received criticism soon after the scandal broke for calling media reports about the losses a tempest in a teapot Writing for the New York based appeals court Chief Judge Robert Katzmann said JPMorgan conducted an exhaustive London Whale probe that led to many changes sought by Espinoza including pay cuts clawbacks and improved controls Citing applicable Delaware law Katzmann also called courts ill suited to second guess board decisions and said New York based JPMorgan was not required to explain to Espinoza point by point why it did not do more Espinoza has not sufficiently rebutted the presumption that JPMorgan s board acted in good faith in responding to his demand letter Katzmann wrote for a three judge panel George Aguilar a partner at Robbins Arroyo representing Espinoza said We re naturally disappointed by the court s opinion but respectful of its view No decision has been made on whether to appeal The appeals court had in June upheld the March 2014 dismissal of Espinoza s lawsuit by U S District Judge George Daniels It revisited the case after asking the Delaware Supreme Court to advise how to evaluate shareholder challenges to the scope of board investigations
JPMorgan paid more than 1 billion and admitted wrongdoing to settle U S and British probes into the London Whale matter Former JPMorgan traders Javier Martin Artajo and Julien Grout have been charged with hiding losses linked to Iksil a French national Iksil is cooperating with prosecutors The case is Espinoza v Dimon et al 2nd U S Circuit Court of Appeals No 14 1754 |
JPM | Wall St gains 2 percent U S jobs data underscores economic strength | By Caroline Valetkevitch Reuters U S stocks rallied on Friday giving the S P 500 its biggest gain since early September as U S jobs data suggested the economy was strong enough to sustain a Federal Reserve rate hike this month Financials which benefit from higher borrowing costs led the rally The S P financial index SPSY jumped 2 7 percent JPMorgan Chase N JPM rose 3 2 percent to 67 89 after European antitrust regulators dropped charges against the bank on blocking exchanges from derivatives markets But the rally which followed two days of sharp losses included most sectors and allowed the three major indexes to post slight gains for the week Stocks are going to have to shift to a domestic economic performance focus We re going to see the market focused on what the U S economy is doing rather than Fed policy said Brad McMillan chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham Massachusetts I think we see a continued upward trend for the rest of the year Nonfarm payrolls increased 211 000 in November the U S Labor Department said while September and October data were revised to show 35 000 more jobs than previously reported Analysts said the report which also showed the unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent most likely paves the way for the Fed to raise rates this month for the first time in nearly a decade The Dow Jones industrial average DJI rose 369 96 points or 2 12 percent to 17 847 63 the S P 500 SPX gained 42 07 points or 2 05 percent to 2 091 69 and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC added 104 74 points or 2 08 percent to 5 142 27 For the week the Dow and Nasdaq were up 0 3 percent while the S P 500 was up 0 1 percent Nine of the 10 major S P 500 sectors ended up The energy index dipped 0 5 percent as oil prices fell on news that OPEC was planning to maintain its production near record highs despite depressed prices The closely watched employment report came a day after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck an upbeat note on the economy when she testified before lawmakers describing how it had largely met the criteria for a rate hike The Fed s policy setting committee will meet on Dec 15 16 Avon Products N AVP rose 5 8 percent to 4 22 after a private equity investor group led by Barington Capital proposed a restructuring of the cosmetics maker Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1 999 to 1 045 for a 1 91 to 1 ratio on the upside on the Nasdaq 1 840 issues rose and 965 fell for a 1 91 to 1 ratio favoring advancers The S P 500 posted 22 new 52 week highs and 20 new lows the Nasdaq recorded 69 new highs and 101 new lows
About 7 7 billion shares changed hands on U S exchanges compared with the 6 9 billion daily average for the past 20 trading days according to Thomson Reuters data |
JPM | Global business growth accelerated in Nov PMI | LONDON Reuters Global business growth accelerated last month as new orders picked up despite firms raising prices at the steepest rate since July a survey showed JPMorgan s Global All Industry Output Index produced with Markit rose to 53 7 in November from October s 53 1 It has been above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since October 2012 The November PMI surveys point to a further step in the right direction for the global economy said David Hensley a director at JPMorgan N JPM If faster increases in new orders and employment translate into a further bounce in the pace of expansion in December fourth quarter GDP growth should come in a shade higher than that registered during Q3 A PMI covering the service industry rose to 54 1 from 53 5 A sister survey on Tuesday showed global manufacturing growth remained tepid in November
The global PMIs combine survey data from countries including the United States Japan Germany France Britain China and Russia |
JPM | Florida man tied to hacking case involving JPMorgan indicted | By Nate Raymond NEW YORK Reuters A Florida man has been indicted for scheming to make illicit payments to an official at a credit union that prosecutors say facilitated an illegal bitcoin exchange owned by an Israeli linked to cyber attacks on companies including JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM Yuri Lebedev 37 pleaded not guilty on Friday to a one count indictment filed last week in Manhattan federal court a spokeswoman for Manhattan U S Attorney Preet Bharara said on Monday Lebedev was arrested in July along with a Florida man Anthony Murgio for engaging in a conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business Murgio was indicted on Nov 10 when prosecutors unveiled related charges against three men accused of running a sprawling computer hacking and fraud scheme Prosecutors said two Israelis Gery Shalon and Ziv Orenstein and an American Joshua Samuel Aaron ran a criminal enterprise that hacked into a dozen companies networks stealing personal information of over 100 million people The companies included JPMorgan which prosecutors said had records stolen belonging to more than 83 million customers Lebedev a resident of Jacksonville Florida was not accused of engaging in the hacking offenses or many of the related alleged crimes they helped facilitate including a series of stock manipulation frauds But prosecutors previously said he supervised the computer programming functions of an unlicensed bitcoin exchange operated by Murgio and owned by Shalon called Coin mx that exchanged millions of dollars of the virtual currency for customers Prosecutors said Murgio as part of the scheme obtained beneficial control of a New Jersey based federal credit union and installed individuals on the board including Lebedev The indictment against Lebedev made public Dec 2 said he participated in a conspiracy to make corrupt payments to a senior executive at the credit union in order to gain control over it The credit union was Helping Other People Excel Federal Credit Union of Jackson New Jersey which federal regulators liquidated last month A lawyer for Lebedev did not respond to a request for comment on Monday
The case is U S v Lebedev U S District Court Southern District of New York No 15 cr 00769 |
BMY | Top Ranked Income Stocks To Buy For December 10th | Here are four stocks with buy rank and strong income characteristics for investors to consider today December 10th Bristol Myers Squibb Company NYSE BMY BMY This manufacturer and seller of biopharmaceutical products has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 2 1 over the last 60 days Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price and Consensus This Zacks Rank 2 Buy company has a dividend yield of 2 74 compared with the industry average of 2 64 Its five year average dividend yield is 2 7
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Dividend Yield TTM The Buckle Inc BKE This lifestyle retailer has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 12 2 over the last 60 days
Buckle Inc The Price and Consensus This Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy company has a dividend yield of 3 71 compared with the industry average of 0 00 Its five year average dividend yield is 4 11
Buckle Inc The Dividend Yield TTM Apollo Investment Corporation AINV This business development company has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5 5 over the last 60 days
Apollo Investment Corporation Price and Consensus This Zacks Rank 2 Buy company has a dividend yield of 10 51 compared with the industry average of 8 54 Its five year average dividend yield is 11 45
Apollo Investment Corporation Dividend Yield TTM AGNC Investment Corp AGNC This real estate investment trust has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 7 1 over the last 60 days
AGNC Investment Corp Price and Consensus This Zacks Rank 2 Buy company has a dividend yield of 11 09 compared with the industry average of 8 44 Its five year average dividend yield is 11 82
AGNC Investment Corp Dividend Yield TTM See the
Find more top income stocks with Today s Best Stocks from ZacksWould you like to see the updated picks from our best market beating strategies From 2017 through Q3 2019 while the S P 500 gained 39 6 five of our strategies returned 51 8 57 5 96 9 119 0 and even 158 9 This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon From 2000 Q3 2019 while the S P averaged 5 6 per year our top strategies averaged up to 54 1 per year |
BMY | How Trading Your Own Retirement Can Fleece Your Financial Future December 16 2019 | Maybe you re a seasoned investor and have a good track record with stock picking And you may have a robust retirement portfolio perhaps including some Zacks Top Retirement stock selections such as
Phillips 66 NYSE PSX Partners LP PSXP Bristol Myers Squibb BMY and TriCo TCBK
If this sounds like you then here s a question With your background and skills should you manage your own retirement investments
It could be a good idea that is if you are one of the very few investors who understands your own risk tolerance and can keep your emotions in check during chaotic market swings However if you re like the rest of us there are likely more prudent ways to reach your retirement investing goals
Active stock trading requires an altogether different investing philosophy and risk reward understanding than building wealth for retirement
How Diversification Differs from Stock Picking
While stock picking can potentially result in outsized returns its outsized concentrated risk can pose significant hazards for retirement investors
A study done by Hendrik Bessembinder of equity markets over nine decades found that just 4 of the best performing U S stocks generated all the market s gains The rest were flat the gains of the next 38 were wiped out by the bottom 58 which lost money
For even the most talented stock pickers the odds for long term success are slim
Is Successful Investing a Mind Game
Most people think they can make rational investment decisions but research indicates the opposite is often true Investors followed in a DALBAR study performed significantly worse than the S P 500 For the 30 years between 1986 to 2015 the average investor earned just 3 66 whereas the S P 500 produced a 10 35 return
It is interesting to note that the period covered by this study includes the 1987 crash the 2000 bear market and the Great Recession of 2008 as well as the bull market of the 1990s
This study suggests that one key reason for investor underperformance is trying to time volatile markets and that irrational behavior biases tend to compound investor mistakes
Curiously even experienced traders tend to underperform since they can t resist the emotional urge to make impulsive investment choices They might be overly self assured and miscalculate risk get attached to a price target or perceive a pattern that does not exist This behavioral fallacy over the long term can be disastrous with potential underperformance of a huge number of dollars disrupting your retirement
The Key Takeaway for Retirement Investors
Your retirement portfolio ought to be dealt with a technique of performance over decades not days weeks or quarters Most self coordinated investors will in general miss the mark with regards to long term outcomes
Does that mean you should quit trading Not really One plan is to take 10 of your investable resources and trade to create alpha and look for outsized returns
But the bulk of your wealth those assets earmarked for retirement should be invested using a more measured conservative risk management approach to generate steady compounded returns so you can safely reach your retirement goals
Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes
Whether you re planning to retire early or not don t let investing mistakes derail your plans
If you have 500 000 or more to invest and want to learn more click the link to download our free report 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement This report will help you steer clear of the most common mistakes like trying to time the market lack of diversification in your portfolio and many more Get Your FREE Guide Now |
C | U S Stocks Edge Up On Better Than Estimated Durables Orders | Shares of the world s leading economy edged up by opening Wednesday s trading session after a governmental report showed that orders of durable goods came out better than forecasts in the past month besides optimism spread over Greece as European leaders are doubling efforts to prevent Europe s debt woes from getting worse
By opening Wednesday Boise Inc slid 7 97 percent after JPMorgan Chase Co cut its recommendations for the shares while also Ralph Lauren Corp plunged 1 30 percent after being downgraded at Citigroup Inc which made the share less tempting to buy
Furthermore Darden Restaurants Inc dropped 5 39 percent after reporting first quarter results that missed analysts median estimates on the other hand Comtech Telecommunications Corp gained 1 94 percent after the company raised its 2012 earnings forecasts
Virgin Media Inc increased 4 17 percent after being upgraded to buy from neutral at Nomura International Plc whereas Progress Software Corp slumped 7 58 percent after slashing its fourth quarter earnings forecasts
The Dollar index which measures the performance of the U S dollar against a basket of currencies including the Euro the Pound and the Yen edged down from today s opening level of 77 88 to currently trade at 77 63 recording its highest level at 77 91 and its lowest at 77 31
Gold prices steadied to reach 1642 81 per ounce compared to the opening price of 1642 01 Oil also consolidated to reach 88 82 after opening at 83 55 per barrel
The best performing sectors within the Dow were the Industrials shares next to Technology and Oil Gas shares respectively The S P 500 s best performing sectors were Technology Financials and Oil Gas shares respectively
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83 40 points or 0 75 percent reaching 11274 09 points The S P 500 rose 4 09 points or 0 35 percent reaching 1179 47 points The NASDAQ Composite rose 10 15 points or 0 40 percent reaching 2556 98 points Data as of 10 07 New York Time |
C | EUR USD Trends Lower As Markets Position Ahead Of ECB Meeting | EUR USDThe pair trended lower throughout the session as market participants pre positioned ahead of the latest ECB governing council meeting on Thursday Rates are expected to remain unchanged and despite the spurious speculation of negative deposit rates EONIA FWD rates have completely reversed the move lower from December meeting where policy makers were said to have discussed such a move In terms of technical levels supports are seen at 1 3018 1 2998 and then at 1 2996 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at the 10DMA line at 1 3141 and then at the 21DMA line at 1 3159 GBP USDThe pair settled lower and mirrored the price action by EUR USD for much of the session as market participants pre positioned ahead of Thursday s ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings Of note according to members of the Times Shadow Monetary Policy Committee the BoE should follow the US Fed by giving explicit guidance on interest rates Sushil Wadhwani the chief executive of Wadhwani Asset Management and Michael Saunders UK economist for Citigroup believe that it is time for the MPC to consider the move to make it clear that rates which stand at 0 5 per cent will remain ultra low for an extended period In terms of technical levels supports are seen at 1 5962 20 and then at 1 5828 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at the 10DMA line at 1 6137 and then at the 21DMA line at 1 6158 USD JPYUSD JPY trended higher this morning after sources indicated that the BoJ may ease in January and that Abe is continuing to press for 2 inflation target Of note this morning s weakness is also being attributed to talk of a large USD JPY option flow A 31 January expiry 91 00 JPY put has just been sold on USD 1 1bln at 11 15 Sources suggest the same US name also bought 1 month ATM vol at 9 8 on Monday for USD 1bln In terms of technical levels supports are seen at 86 83 77 and then at 86 52 On the other hand resistance levels are seen at 87 82 88 00 and then at 88 38 |
JPM | U S GDP growth raised for third quarter | By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON Reuters The U S economy grew at a healthier clip in the third quarter than initially thought but strong inventory accumulation by businesses could temper expectations of an acceleration in growth in the final three months of the year The Commerce Department on Tuesday said the nation s gross domestic product grew at a 2 1 percent annual pace not the 1 5 percent rate it reported last month as businesses reduced an inventory bloat less aggressively than previously believed The pace of economic growth which was also boosted by upward revisions to business spending on equipment suggests a resilience that could help give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month While consumer spending was revised down a bit its pace remained brisk suggesting consumers were cash flush The economy continues to move along at a good clip relative to its potential With growth like this the Fed has the data it needs to light the candle finally and lift off on December 16 said Chris Rupkey chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York When measured from the income side the economy grew at a sturdy 3 1 percent clip the fastest in a year and an acceleration from the second quarter s upwardly 2 2 percent pace Wages and salaries increased 109 3 billion 61 6 billion more than initially estimated The third quarter s respectable expansion should set up the economy to achieve at least 2 percent growth in the second half of the year around its long run potential In the wake of robust job growth in October and strong domestic demand the Fed is expected to raise rates at its Dec 15 16 policy meeting Other data on Tuesday showed consumer confidence fell further in November hitting a 14 month low as sentiment towards the labor market surprisingly soured Economists suspected the Nov 13 attacks in Paris and rising tensions in the Middle East had weighed on consumer confidence Despite the drop more consumers say they plan to buy homes automobiles and other big ticket items over the next six months The bigger picture suggests that domestic demand is still firm spending plans are evolving positively and the housing market continues to post gains said Robert Kavcic a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto A third report showed house prices rose solidly in August U S financial markers were little moved by the data as investors worried about global security after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane LARGE INVENTORY ACCUMULATION In the third quarter businesses accumulated 90 2 billion worth of inventories instead of the 56 8 billion reported last month That followed more than 100 billion worth of inventories accumulated in each of the prior two quarters As a result the change in inventories chopped off only 0 59 percentage point from third quarter GDP growth rather than the 1 44 percentage points the government reported in October That however suggests inventories could be a drag on fourth quarter growth The bigger inventory overhang helps explain why manufacturing sentiment remains cautious early in the fourth quarter and does present downside risk to our 2 5 percent estimate for current quarter GDP growth said Michael Feroli an economist at JPMorgan N JPM in New York Consumer spending which accounts for more than two thirds of U S economic activity grew at a still strong 3 0 percent rate in the third quarter down from the 3 2 percent rate estimated last month The downward revisions mostly reflected weak outlays on communication services and utilities A measure of private domestic demand which excludes trade inventories and government spending was revised down to a still sturdy 3 1 percent pace from the previously 3 2 percent rate Though there are signs consumer spending slowed early in the fourth quarter it should continue to be supported by strong income gains Income at the disposal of households after adjusting for inflation rose at a robust 3 9 percent pace in the third quarter A trade deficit that was larger than previously estimated subtracted 0 22 percentage point from GDP growth in the third quarter Data on Tuesday showing a smaller goods trade deficit suggested trade would contribute to fourth quarter growth Deep spending cuts by energy firms following a collapse in oil prices continued to weigh on growth Spending on mining exploration wells and shafts tumbled at a 47 1 percent rate rather than the 46 9 percent pace reported last month However business spending on equipment was revised up to a 9 5 percent rate from a 5 3 percent pace
The Commerce Department also reported that corporate profits after tax fell at a 1 6 percent rate in the third quarter after rising at a 2 6 percent pace in the second quarter Profits which have been undercut by the dollar s strength and lower oil prices were down 8 1 percent from a year ago the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 2008 |
JPM | FBI has lead in probe of 1 2 billion stolen Web credentials documents | By Nate Raymond NEW YORK Reuters A hacker who once advertised having access to user account information for websites like Facebook O FB and Twitter N TWTR has been linked through a Russian email address to the theft of a record 1 2 billion Internet credentials the FBI said in court documents That hacker known as mr grey was identified based on data from a cybsecurity firm that announced in August 2014 that it had determined an alleged Russian crime ring was responsible for stealing information from more than 420 000 websites the documents said The papers made public last week by a federal court in Milwaukee Wisconsin provide a window into the Federal Bureau of Investigation s probe of what would amount to the largest collection of stolen user names and passwords The court papers were filed in support of a search warrant the FBI sought in December 2014 and that was executed a month later related to email records The FBI investigation was prompted by last year s announcement by Milwaukee based cybersecurity firm Hold Security that it obtained information that a Russian hacker group it dubbed CyberVor had stolen the 1 2 billion credentials and more than 500 million email addresses The FBI subsequently found lists of domain names and utilities that investigators believe were used to send spam the documents said The FBI also discovered an email address registered in 2010 contained in the spam utilities for a mistergrey documents show A search of Russian hacking forums by the FBI found posts by a mr grey who in November 2011 wrote that if anyone wanted account information for users of Facebook Twitter and Russian based social network VK he could locate the records Alex Holden Hold Security s chief information security officer told Reuters this message indicated mr grey likely operated or had access to a database that amassed stolen data from computers via malware and viruses Facebook and Twitter declined comment The FBI declined to comment and U S Justice Department had no immediate comment The probe appears to be distinct from another investigation linked to Hold Security s reported discovery that 420 000 websites including one for a JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM corporate event were targeted by the Russian hackers In a case spilling out of the discovery of the JPMorgan breach U S prosecutors this month charged three men with engaging in a cyber criminal enterprise that stole personal information from more than 100 million people Prosecutors accused two Israelis Gery Shalon and Ziv Orenstein and one American Joshua Samuel Aaron of being involved in a variety of schemes fueled by hacking JPMorgan and 11 other companies
An indictment in Atlanta federal court against Shalon and Aaron names as a defendant an unidentified hacker believed to be in Russia |
JPM | China s Manufacturing Hits 3 Year Low | By
SHANGHAI Latest official data from China show a further contraction in manufacturing activity among major companies in November in another sign of the impact of the global slowdown on the world s second largest economy China s official Purchasing Managers Index PMI which measures activity at larger companies many of them state owned fell to its lowest point since August 2012 China s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday The figure of 49 6 marked a further fall from October s 49 8 and the fourth month the PMI index had been in negative territory state media reported Any reading below 50 suggests a contraction Analysts said the figure was worse than expected suggesting continuing pressure on China s manufacturers which have been hit as the country s exports have fallen in recent months China s GDP growth dipped below 7 percent in the last quarter for the first time since 2009 And despite more positive PMI figures for China s service industries several economists predicted that the Chinese government would have to take further stimulus measures to boost the economy Significantly the latest manufacturing data also suggests that domestic demand which the government hopes will rise to offset China s export slowdown may also be declining The sub index tracking new orders for China s manufacturing companies showed that while export demand remained weakest at 46 4 overall orders from both home and abroad also fell back into negative territory in November down to 49 8 from 50 3 in October There was slightly better news however from the separate Caixin China PMI which mainly measures smaller and private companies It has fallen even lower than the official index in recent months and remained in negative territory for the ninth straight month at 48 6 in November However the figure marked an improvement from October s 48 3 confounding predictions that it would remain unchanged It was the second monthly improvement in a row Caixin Insight Group which compiles the index said demand for exports from the surveyed companies usually seen as the most flexible sector of China s economy but often vulnerable to falls in export demand actually grew in November at the fastest rate in more than a year And it said factories output had stabilized for the first time in six months However it also said that domestic demand was weak with companies still laying off workers though at their slowest pace since May He Fan chief economist of Caixin Insight Group said the figures suggested that pressure on economic growth has eased and fiscal policy has had a strong effect a reference to the government increasing spending on infrastructure projects in recent months And he said China s economy was on track to become more stable However He also noted that the prices for both the inputs and outputs of China s factories fell in November adding to concern about deflationary pressure on the economy China s consumer price index rose just 1 3 percent year on year in October while the producer price index was down 5 9 percent And Li gang Liu and Louis Lam Greater China economists at ANZ Bank in Hong Kong said in a report that falling prices would hit companies profits They noted that China s industrial profits fell sharply by 4 6 percent year on year in October And they predicted that the authorities would further ease monetary policy and continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in order to prevent further slowdown of the economy in 2016 Some observers expect further cuts in interest rates and bank s reserve requirement ratio which has been cut several times in the past year to encourage lending to businesses Liu and Lam said there were a few bright spots in China s economy with profits for high tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing up significantly in October And the official PMI survey also showed signs of continuing improvement in China s non manufacturing economy with sectors such as services and construction expanding faster compared to October at 52 8 and 58 1 respectively Sectors such as delivery received a particular boost in November from China s Singles Day the world s largest online retail festival while financial services and software continue to grow according to official reports and the PMI for new orders in the non manufacturing sector also continued to rise It s further evidence of what leading economist Zhu Haibin chief China economist at JPMorgan N JPM recently described as China s two track economy Speaking at a recent conference of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai Zhu predicted that China s service sector which has continued to see double digit growth this year would carry on growing healthily while manufacturing slowed China s house prices also rose again in November up nearly 3 percent year on year in 100 major cities and 7 6 percent in China s 10 biggest cities according to a new survey And some experts continue to predict a possible rebound in GDP growth to about 7 percent in the final quarter of the year However many economists at home and abroad agree that further measures need to be taken if China is to avoid a hard landing as its economy slows and more infrastructure spending is likely to be announced in the coming months though the government has suggested it will try to fund some of this by public private partnerships |
JPM | Private payrolls compensation data point to sturdy jobs market | By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON Reuters U S private employers boosted hiring in November and wage growth appeared to pick up in the third quarter signs of labor market strength that could support the first Federal Reserve interest rate increase in nearly a decade later this month The reports on Wednesday overshadowed slumping manufacturing activity and underscored the economy s solid fundamentals The data indicate a steady improvement in the labor market that should support the Fed s confidence that now is the right time to hike rates said Thomas Costerg senior U S economist at Standard Chartered L STAN Bank in New York Private payrolls increased 217 000 last month on top of the 196 000 jobs added in October the ADP National Employment Report showed Employment gains were fairly healthy across the board with manufacturing rebounding from two straight months of shedding jobs The sector added 6 000 positions in November The ADP report which is jointly developed with Moody s Analytics was released ahead of the Labor Department s more comprehensive employment report on Friday Though the ADP report is not considered a reliable predictor of nonfarm payrolls economists said it was broadly in line with their expectations for solid job gains in November According to a Reuters survey nonfarm payrolls increased 200 000 in November after surging 271 000 in October Job growth is more than enough to keep up with population growth The Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to lift its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero at its Dec 15 16 meeting Fed Chair Janet Yellen could offer more clues on the near term monetary policy outlook when she addresses the Economic Club of Washington at 12 25 p m ET 1725 GMT The U S central bank last raised interest rates in June 2006 Market based measures of Fed policy expectations assign a probability of 75 percent to the central bank raising interest rates this month according to the CME Group s FedWatch site The dollar rose against a basket of currencies U S government bond yields rose with the 2 year Treasury note US2YT RR the most sensitive to Fed policy expectations hitting a session high above 0 94 percent U S stocks were little changed Labor strength should help ease concerns about the economy after a report on Tuesday showed manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three years WAGES ACCELERATING A separate report from the Labor Department suggested wage growth which has been frustratingly slow even as labor market conditions tighten could be finally accelerating Compensation per hour in the third quarter rose at a 4 0 percent annual rate and not the 3 0 percent pace the department had reported last month Compensation was up a solid 3 6 percent compared to the third quarter of 2014 Unit labor costs the price of labor per single unit of output was also revised higher to show it increasing at a 1 8 percent rate in the third quarter instead of the previously reported 1 4 percent pace The figures in today s report support the idea that wage inflation has picked up lately said Daniel Silver an economist at JPMorgan N JPM in New York While productivity growth which measures hourly output per worker was revised up to a 2 2 percent rate in the third quarter the trend remained weak Productivity was previously reported to have expanded at a 1 6 percent pace It increased only 0 6 percent compared to the third quarter of 2014 the slowest rise in nearly a year
Economists blame softer productivity on lack of investment which they say has led to an unprecedented decline in capital intensity They say persistently tepid productivity has lowered the economy s speed limit |
C | Natural gas futures rally with storm activity in focus | Investing com Natural gas futures rallied to a three day high on Tuesday climbing above the psychologically important USD4 00 level as traders focused on storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for October delivery traded at USD4 002 per million British thermal units during U S morning trade rallying 3 It earlier rose as much as 3 1 to trade at USD4 018 per million British thermal units the highest price since September 8 The U S National Hurricane Center said in an advisory earlier that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has turned out to be as active a season as was forecast NHS spokesman Dennis Feltgen said that the 14 storms that have developed in thus far are in line with NHS projections for 19 named storms during the U S hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks in September and October We are a little behind the curve on hurricanes but right on target for being an active season which is just as forecast We still have a lot of season to go because October is typically one of the most active months Mr Feltgen added Production in federal waters in the Gulf accounts for about 10 of U S natural gas output and prices typically spike when storms threaten production Wall Street bank Citigroup said in a report earlier that natural gas prices could rally to USD4 50 per million British thermal units in the months ahead as traders focus on winter heating demand Natural gas futures often reach a seasonal low in October when mild weather reduces demand before recovering in the winter when heating fuel use peaks Elsewhere on the Nymex light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in October jumped 1 33 to trade at USD89 36 a barrel while heating oil for October delivery shed 0 65 to trade at USD2 933 per gallon |
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