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JPM | JP Morgan beats earnings and revenue forecasts | Investing com JP Morgan the largest U S bank by assets gave an upbeat start to the second quarter earnings season on Friday after reporting results that beat on the top and bottom line sending its shares higher in pre market trade
JP Morgan said earnings per share came in at 1 82 in the second quarter up from 1 55 a share a year earlier and surging past expectations of 1 58 a share
The bank s revenue totaled 25 5 billion in the April to June quarter an increase from the 25 21 billion reported in the same period in 2016 and higher than estimates for revenue of 24 96 billion
We continued to post very solid results against a stable to improving global economic backdrop JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon said
The U S consumer remains healthy evidenced in our strong underlying performance in Consumer Community Banking he added
Traders will now turn their attention to the bank s conference call due to start at 8 30AM ET 12 30GMT
Following the release of the report shares in JP Morgan NYSE JPM initially rose more than 1 but were last up just 0 32 in pre market trade at 93 40 by 7 08AM ET 11 08GMT The bank closed on Thursday with gains of 0 64 at 93 10
Meanwhile U S equity markets pointed to a flat open The blue chip Dow futures was unchanged the S P 500 futures edged down 1 point or 0 04 while the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 futures was also unchanged |
JPM | JPMorgan Q2 earnings beat estimates | Investing com NYSE JPMorgan s second quarter earnings beat analyst estimates The U S bank said Friday its earnings per share in the quarter came in at 1 82 compared with a forecast of 1 58 Earnings per share in the second quarter of last year were 1 55 Reported revenue was 25 5 billion compared with an estimate of 24 96 billion Banking revenue up 17 while markets revenue down 14 JPMorgan s shares were off 1 08 in pre market trade |
JPM | Barclays talking with regulators about expanding Dublin unit post Brexit | By Anjuli Davies LONDON Reuters Barclays L BARC is talking with Irish regulators about extending its activities in Dublin in preparation for when Britain leaves the European Union the British bank said in a statement on Friday Barclays already has a licensed entity in Dublin Barclays Bank Ireland employing around 100 people which currently has a license to conduct mainly corporate banking activities and intends to extend the range of that license so it can continue serving clients once Britain leaves the bloc In January Reuters reported that Barclays was preparing to make Dublin its EU headquarters post Brexit as global banks and insurers begin to enact contingency plans on how they will continue to access the European single market Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has asked banks to show by Friday how they can avoid their customers being abruptly cut off after Brexit which bankers say may inadvertently speed up the departure of jobs from Britain Barclays intends to utilize an existing licensed EU based bank subsidiary to continue passported activity the bank said Barclays Bank Ireland which has a banking license and which we have operated for almost 40 years provides a natural base and we are engaging with our regulators in discussions to extend its activities Barclays chief executive Jes Staley met with Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in Dublin on Monday the bank added Staley has previously said Brexit would be a wholly manageable challenge and the bank could shift around 150 staff to Ireland depending on the outcome of negotiations a source familiar with the matter told Reuters In the absence of certainty around the timing and composition of an agreement we intend to take necessary steps to preserve ongoing market access for our customers the bank said In June Barclays appointed investment banker Kevin Wall as chief executive of its business in Ireland in a sign it was preparing to potentially expand operations there due to Brexit
This is another win for Dublin after Wall Street bank JPMorgan N JPM in May agreed to buy a Dublin building with room for 1 000 staff with CEO Jamie Dimon also meeting with the Irish Prime Minister earlier this month |
C | Citigroup resolves technical issue that left accounts frozen | Reuters Citigroup Inc N C said on Friday it resolved a technical issue that had left customers unable to access their accounts remotely Customers had taken to social media to complain about the outage which affected several U S states including New York Pennsylvania and California according to Bloomberg We experienced a brief technical issue that is now resolved Citigroup s customer service Twitter account said in response Bloomberg reported the news of the outage first A Bloomberg reporter spoke with four people at a bank branch on Manhattan s Upper East Side who said debit cards did not work at the ATM there Citigroup was not immediately available for further comment
The bank s shares had closed down 9 4 percent at 40 30 on Friday as Britain s vote to exit the European Union sparked the biggest global financial shock since the 2008 crisis |
C | Citigroup resolves technical issue that left accounts frozen | Reuters Citigroup Inc NYSE C said on Friday it resolved a technical issue that had left customers unable to access their accounts remotely
Customers had taken to social media to complain about the outage which affected several U S states including New York Pennsylvania and California according to Bloomberg
We experienced a brief technical issue that is now resolved Citigroup s customer service Twitter account said in response
Bloomberg reported the news of the outage first
A Bloomberg reporter spoke with four people at a bank branch on Manhattan s Upper East Side who said debit cards did not work at the ATM there
Citigroup was not immediately available for further comment
The bank s shares had closed down 9 4 percent at 40 30 on Friday as Britain s vote to exit the European Union sparked the biggest global financial shock since the 2008 crisis |
C | European stocks open mixed as markets digest Brexit DAX up 0 02 | Investing com European stocks were mixed on Monday as markets continued to digest the U K s decision to leave the European Union which sent global equity markets tumbling on Friday
During European morning trade the EURO STOXX 50 rose 0 37 France s CAC 40 eased 0 08 while Germany s DAX 30 inched up 0 02
The U K voted by nearly 52 to 48 on Thursday to break away from the world s biggest trading bloc
British Prime Minister David Cameron who had backed the failed Remain campaign stepped down after the final referendum result was announced
Following the vote the Bank of England said it was ready to pump 250 billion to aid the smooth running of markets declaring it will take all necessary steps to ensure financial and monetary stability
Central banks from the G7 group also said in a joint statement that they were prepared to provide additional liquidity to markets as needed
Financial stocks were mixed after Citigroup NYSE C warned that banks were one of the most exposed sectors to Brexit French lenders Societe Generale PA SOGN and BNP Paribas PA BNPP declined 0 35 and 1 29 while Germany s Commerzbank DE CBKG and Deutsche Bank DE DBKGn slid 0 32 and 2 23
However among peripheral lenders Italy s Intesa Sanpaolo MI ISP and Unicredit MI CRDI gained 0 29 and 2 12 respectively while Spanish banks Banco Santander MC SAN and BBVA MC BBVA surged 3 28 and 4 05
Elsewhere Lufthansa AG VNA O N DE LHAG was down 1 60 even after CEO Carsten Spohr said the impact of the Brexit vote will be limited The comments came as investors worried that the impact of Brexit would be damaging to international airlines that serve the U K
In London FTSE 100 declined 0 30 led by cruise company Carnival LON CCL Plc whose shares dove 11 26
EasyJet PLC LON EZJ plummeted 10 81 after Citigroup cut its target price for the stock
Financial stocks were also on the downside as Lloyds Banking LON LLOY lost 3 39 and Barclays LON BARC plummeted 5 59 while the Royal Bank of Scotland LON RBS sank 6 75 HSBC Holdings LON HSBA overperformed howver with shares advancing 0 46
Meanwhile mining stocks were broadly higher on the commodity heavy index Antofagasta LON ANTO jumped 1 44 and Anglo American LON AAL rallied 2 53 while Randgold Resources LON RRS surged 4 00 and 4 04 respectively
In the U S equity markets pointed to a steady open The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0 02 uptick S P 500 futures a 0 04 gain while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0 01 dip |
MS | Gold futures drop on Greek bailout delay stronger USD | Investing com Gold futures declined on Thursday giving back most of the previous day s gains as growing fears over a potential Greek debt default prompted investors to flock to the perceived safety of the U S dollar On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for April delivery traded at USD1 716 95 a troy ounce during early European morning trade shedding 0 65 It earlier fell by as much as 0 84 to trade at a two day low of USD1 715 55 a troy ounce Futures were likely to find short term support at USD1 713 95 a troy ounce the low from February 14 and resistance at USD1 739 15 Wednesday s high and the highest since February 9 Concerns over a Greek debt default escalated after reports emerged on Wednesday that European Union officials were looking at ways to delay the second Greek bailout until after general elections in April A three hour teleconference call between euro zone finance ministers Wednesday failed to resolve all the issues surrounding a second aid package for Athens putting off any decision on the matter until Monday at the earliest Without a bailout Greece faces the threat of defaulting when a EUR14 5 billion bond redemption comes due on March 20 Also weighing on sentiment Moody s said Wednesday it was placing over 100 financial firms across the world on ratings review due to the euro zone crisis Ratings for heavyweight lenders UBS Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley may be lowered by as many as three levels while those for Goldman Sachs Deutsche Bank JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup may be cut by two levels Moody s said in a statement The news prompted investors to move in to the relative safety of the U S dollar The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies was up 0 45 to trade at 80 10 the highest since January 25 The dollar found further support after the minutes of the Federal Reserve s January policy meeting showed that policymakers were divided about whether to launch fresh easing measures to shore up growth but were still actively considering such a move Gold is priced in U S dollars and when the greenback strengthens the dollar priced commodity becomes more expensive to investors who use other currencies Although gold is often seen as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty the increasingly grave debt crisis in the euro zone has done little to buoy appetite in gold recently A weakening euro and stronger dollar have weighed on gold instead Some traders also sold profitable gold positions to offset losses in other markets while others pulled cash out of broader markets on concerns of a sharper downturn Elsewhere on the Comex silver for March delivery slumped 1 05 to trade at USD33 06 a troy ounce while copper for March delivery tumbled 1 53 to trade at USD3 744 a pound |
MS | Wheat futures down for 2nd day as U S crop weather improves | Investing com Wheat futures were down for a second day on Wednesday as improving weather conditions in key wheat growing regions in the U S added to the view that world supplies are sufficient to meet global demand On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange wheat futures for March delivery traded at USD6 2925 a bushel during European morning trade shedding 0 47 It earlier fell by as much as 0 55 to trade at a session low USD6 2912 a bushel Wheat prices tumbled nearly 2 on Tuesday the biggest drop in more than a week amid speculation global supplies of the grain are ample to meet world demand Last week the U S Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for global wheat supplies before the 2012 Northern Hemisphere harvest to an all time high 213 1 million metric tons 1 5 higher than January s projection and 6 2 more than last year The prior record was set in the 1999 2000 season when stockpiles reached 210 7 million tons Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley warned last week that wheat production estimates for the U S in 2012 2013 may be revised higher should improvements in the weather be sustained Prices came under pressure Wednesday after agricultural meteorologists said some drought relieving snowfall was expected in the U S Northern Plains spring wheat region through the end of February potentially boosting soil moisture reserves ahead of spring planting The U S is the world s third largest wheat producer and biggest exporter of the grainMeanwhile Russia s deputy minister of economic development Andrey Klepach said earlier that his country aims to secure a foothold among buyers in Asia increasing competition for U S and Australian supplies Russia is a major wheat exporter and competes with the U S for business on the global market The U S has already lost market share to Russia in North Africa and the Middle East and faces competition from record Australian shipments in Asia Some profit taking also weighed as investors readjust positions ahead of the USDA s annual outlook forum later this week where it will update its crop forecasts Elsewhere on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange corn for March delivery dropped 0 57 to trade at USD6 2663 a bushel while soybeans for March delivery traded at USD12 6463 a bushel slumping 0 5 |
MS | Gold futures off session lows as bargain buying supports | Investing com Gold futures held on to mild losses on Monday but were off the lowest levels of the day as the previous week s sharp drop created buying opportunities for investors as they continued to monitor developments surrounding Greece s debt swap deal On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for April delivery traded at USD1 706 05 a troy ounce during U S morning trade dipping 0 22 It earlier fell by as much as 0 98 to trade at a two day low of USD1 695 55 a troy ounce Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1 689 95 a troy ounce the low from February 29 and short term resistance at USD1 726 95 the high from March 1 Gold prices lost 3 45 last week as traders unwound long positions or bets prices will rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke diminished expectations for more U S monetary easing last week However the sharp decline triggered some bargain buying from traders reluctant to bet that prices would fall further While last week s drop damaged the near term technical outlook for the precious metal many knowledgeable market analysts expect prices to recover in the long term Wall Street bank Citigroup said in a report earlier that it sees gold prices surging towards USD2 400 an ounce by the end of 2012 with prices eventually hitting USD3 400 an ounce in the coming years However the bank warned of price weakness in the short term and said there is a real danger that there may be a correction to USD1 600 an ounce Morgan Stanley meanwhile said that Although immediate wider market pressures and near term technical factors spell short term weakness in gold in the longer run it remains firmly underpinned by the U S ultra loose monetary policy portfolio diversification and strong physical demand from Asia Negative real interest rates and accommodative monetary policy were and remain the key drivers of investment demand Bernanke s testimony did nothing to remove this benefit the investment bank said while adding that it still sees a 75 the Fed embarks on a third round of quantitative easing Gold prices rallied in recent weeks boosted by growing expectations for further monetary easing measures from global central banks Despite last week s pullback the metal is still 9 higher this year after the Fed said in January it would keep U S interest rates near zero until at least 2014 Meanwhile concerns over Greece s debt burden persisted ahead of the March 8 deadline for bondholders to join the agreement under which they will exchange their existing Greek government bonds for new paper in a swap deal A failure to agree on the swap would put the country back on the brink of a messy sovereign debt default Elsewhere on the Comex silver for May delivery shed 0 2 to trade at USD34 45 a troy ounce while copper for May delivery tumbled 1 3 to trade at USD3 853 a pound Copper prices came under selling pressure amid concerns over a slowdown in Chinese economic growth and its impact on the Asian nation s copper demand In a speech to the National People s Congress in Beijing earlier Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will target an expansion of 7 5 this year and set an inflation target of 4 The government had an 8 goal from 2005 to 2011 China is the world s largest copper consumer accounting for almost 40 of world consumption last year |
MS | U S stocks mixed despite bullish FOMC words Dow up 0 12 | Investing com A spate of profit taking resulted in a mixed close for U S equities despite bullish words from the Federal Reserve and solid domestic economic data At the close of U S trade the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0 12 the S P 500 gave back 0 12 while the Nasdaq Composite eased higher by 0 03 The S P 500 broke a 5 day winning streak today after the benchmark soared to the highest level since June 2008 on profit taking Sparking the risk on trade the FOMC stated late yesterday that global financial strains have lessened and the labor market has improved sparking the rally in worldwide equities The Federal Reserve added that 15 of the U S largest banks maintain enough reserves to weather a recession scenario further fuelling the bullish sentiment However the FOMC softened its bullish stance by stating that the unemployment rate remains elevated and significant downside risks exist Fitch Ratings increased Greece s long term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to B with stable outlooks due to the 95 participation rate in the debt swap Meanwhile in Italy a bond auction sold EUR6 billion with borrowing costs on its three year debt falling to the lowest level since October 2010 further adding to the bullish session In Chinese news the country is easing restrictions on lending capacity at three of the nations four largest banks This move was triggered after China s exports retail sales and industrial production declined in the first two months of 2012 Potential future regulations led to an insurance sell off with Metlife giving back 4 8 and Prudential falling 2 on the session Apple gained another 2 5 after having its share price estimate increased to USD720 00 from USD550 00 at Morgan Stanley Forex dealer FXCM surged 17 after beating analyst s fourth quarter sales and profit estimates Pacific Sunwear gave back 14 after the teen clothing retailer forecasted a steeper than projected loss for the first quarter At the close of European trade the EURO STOXX 50 gained 0 70 France s CAC 40 added 0 40 while Germany s DAX advanced 1 19 Meanwhile in the U K the FTSE 100 traded down by 0 18 Investors are awaiting U S producer price inflation long term securities transaction and New York manufacturing activity as well as ECB s monthly bulletin on Thursday |
JPM | JPM Key Resistance Levels | JPMorgan Chase Co JPM continues to inch higher today The stock is trading at 47 22 0 10 0 22 At this point JPM is short term extended as it is approaching its first major resistance level This level matches the double top high from 2011 at 48 35 Should JPM hit this level in the next couple weeks expect a pull back Following that level the eye turns to the pre financial crisis levels of 53 25 It is possible that later in the year the stock gets there |
JPM | Banks Securitization Incentives Are We Protected From A Collapse | IntroductionThe bank crisis was serious 52 trillion in capital losses leading to the largest global recession since 1929 We should work hard to insure it does not happen again But there is a problem there is little agreement on why it happened The litany of reasons includes banks got too big government pushing too hard on homes for everyone inadequate regulations and rating agency failures My view everything started downhill when the primary incentive structure of banks changed Until recently banks lived on the difference between what they had to pay for deposits and their income from loans they held to maturity That spread was their life blood And because of this they were extremely careful about whom they lent money to That meant that throughout the life of their loans they stayed in close touch with their borrowers to insure that interest and principal repayments occurred on schedule In the last decade this has all changed Instead of holding loans to maturity most banks now sell off at least a portion of their loans for commissions This caused a fundamental change in bank incentives Instead of being very careful about their borrowers banks stopped caring the more they lent the more commissions they could earn from selling them off The following graph traces the growing sale of collateralized loan obligations CLOs by banks As indicated there was little securitization of CLOs until 2004 when it increased dramatically until peaking in 2007 at 180 billion Other forms of securitization followed the same time profile and brought the total into the trillions by 2007 Evidence of Incentive EffectsUntil recently the point about the change in bank incentives although quite plausible has been nothing more than conjecture But two new empirical studies support the proposition that the ability to sell off loans does reduce the quality of bank loans One looked at securitized sub prime mortgage loan contracts and the other examined CLOs a Securitized Sub Prime Mortgage Loans SSMLs Keys Mukherjee Seru and Vig just completed a study looking at the variation in the riskiness of SSMLs depending on the ease of securitization They concluded the portfolio with greater ease of securitization defaults by around 10 25 more than a similar risk profile group with a lesser ease of securitization Our findings suggest that existing securitization practices did adversely affect the screening incentives of subprime lenders b Collateralized Loan Obligations CLOs Regarding CLOs Bord and Santos found that the loans banks sell to CLOs perform worse than comparable loans originated by the same bank Loans sold to CLOs at the time of their origination underperform similar unsecuritized loans originated by the same bank The difference in performance between CLO credits and non CLO credits appear to have resulted from banks use of laxer standards to underwrite the loans they sell to CLOs The authors also found that selling off loans resulted in weaker bank ex post monitoring activities c ConclusionThese conclusions are not surprising when banks can make more money by selling off loans for commissions than holding them they will make more loans As a consequence the riskiness of both the loans and banks will increase The next question is whether changes since the bank collapse have rectified the problems that resulted in the banking collapse Are Banks Safer Today In response to the US bank collapse the Dodd Frank Bill was passed It sounds pretty good I quote from a summary of its provisions The Dodd Frank Act implements changes that among other things affect the oversight and supervision of financial institutions provide for a new resolution procedure for large financial companies create a new agency responsible for implementing and enforcing compliance with consumer financial laws introduce more stringent regulatory capital requirements effect significant changes in the regulation of over the counter derivatives reform the regulation of credit rating agencies implement changes to corporate governance and executive compensation practices incorporate the Volcker Rule require registration of advisers to certain private funds and effect significant changes in the securitization market 1 There are only two primary problems with the law It did not reverse bank incentive structures the Volcker Rule was not implemented banks can still create buy and sell loan packages Congressman Barney Frank the ranking member on the House Financial Services Committee recognized the problem and tried to require banks to hold on to least some share of the loans they sold off No luck the provision was removed before the Act was approved The lobbyists and lawyers of banks will have a primary say in how the Act is implemented And they are significant players reports that banks spent 61 million lobbying Congress in 2012 Other Reforms Many believe that certain reforms will make the banks safer We hear a lot about large banks that some are so large we can t allow them to fail Keep in mind that more than 700 banks needed a TARP bailout and many were not large Many believe improved regulation is the answer But is it In recent years as the riskiness and complexity of banks loans have increased regulators have tried to keep up They have tried to adjust the safe assets banks must keep on hand for different degrees of riskiness in a bank s loan portfolio This won t work The regulators cannot effectively regulate I offer three pieces of evidence to support this assertion Leading up to the Eurozone Crisis regulators allowed banks to count sovereign debt as equivalent to cash as part of their asset base Dodd Frank became law on July 21 2010 Two years later the summer of 2012 we hear that JP Morgan Chase JPM trading losses could reach 9 billion Take a look at in particular skim over the 123 pages of notes to the consolidated financial statements pp 182 304 in the report Can regulators understand what JPM is doing No The Only SolutionWe do not deposit money in banks so banks can gamble We put money in banks for safe keeping Depository institutions should not be allowed to trade any assets Too risky A simple solution limit government bank insurance in the US FDIC insurance to banks that manage their own loans to maturity and do not engage in trading on their own accounts Post Script on Rating Agencies and IncentivesIncentives are important to how any institution operates And rating agencies are now paid by the institutions whose securities they are rating Their ratings cannot be trusted |
MPC | Marathon Petroleum MPC Q4 Earnings Revenues Top Estimates | Independent oil refiner and marketer Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC reported adjusted earnings per share of 1 56 above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents
The beat was driven by higher than expected throughput and refined product sales volume which helped the Refining Marketing segment income to blow away estimates Operating income from the unit totaled 912 million significantly ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 218 million Total refined product sales volumes and throughput of 3 750 thousand barrels per day mbpd and 3 069 mbpd came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 619 mbpd and 3 052 mbpd respectively
However the bottom line was 35 3 below the year earlier quarter s earnings due to weak showing from the Midstream segment
Marathon Petroleum which recently announced a 9 4 increase in its quarterly dividend to 58 cents reported revenues of 31 4 billion that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 29 7 billion but declined 3 6 year over year Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Y Y Segmental Performance
Refining Marketing The Refining Marketing segment reported operating income of 912 million slightly lower than 923 million in the year ago quarter The decline reflects lower y y refining margins and throughputs
Specifically refining margin of 15 55 per barrel decreased versus 15 70 a year ago Total refined product sales volumes were 3 750 mbpd down from the 3 764 mbpd in the year ago quarter Moreover throughput fell from 3 111 mbpd in the year ago quarter to 3 069 mbpd Capacity utilization during the quarter was 94
Retail Income from the Retail segment totaled 477 million down 22 2 from the year ago period The Retail segment was dragged down by lower fuel margins partly offset by higher merchandise sales In particular the company s retail fuel margin fell from 32 35 cents per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 28 65 cents per gallon in the quarter under review However same store merchandise sales were up by 4 7 year over year
Midstream This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX LP NYSE MPLX a publicly traded master limited partnerships that own operate develop and acquire pipelines and other midstream assets
Segment profitability was 889 million same as the fourth quarter of 2018 Earnings were buoyed by strong overall growth across MPLX s businesses
Costs Capex Balance Sheet
Marathon Petroleum which spun off from Marathon Oil Corporation NYSE MRO in 2011 reported expenses of 30 5 billion in fourth quarter 2019 essentially unchanged from the year ago quarter
In the reported quarter Marathon Petroleum spent 1 8 billion on capital programs 48 on the Midstream segment As of Dec 31 the company had cash and cash equivalents of 1 5 billion and a total debt of 28 8 billion with a debt to capitalization ratio of 40 6
During the fourth quarter Marathon Petroleum returned 409 million of capital to shareholders
Zacks Rank Stock Pick
Marathon Petroleum holds a Zacks Rank 3 Hold
A better ranked player in the space is Murphy USA Inc NYSE MUSA that sports a Zacks Rank 2 Buy The 2020 Zacks Consensus Estimate for this El Dorado AR based company is 5 59 representing 7 2 earnings per share growth over 2019
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MPC | Marathon Petroleum MPC Q4 Earnings And Revenues Beat Estimates | Marathon Petroleum MPC came out with quarterly earnings of 1 56 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 85 per share This compares to earnings of 2 41 per share a year ago These figures are adjusted for non recurring items
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 83 53 A quarter ago it was expected that this refiner would post earnings of 1 30 per share when it actually produced earnings of 1 63 delivering a surprise of 25 38
Over the last four quarters the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times
Marathon Petroleum which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing industry posted revenues of 31 38 billion for the quarter ended December 2019 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5 66 This compares to year ago revenues of 32 54 billion The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters
The sustainability of the stock s immediate price movement based on the recently released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management s commentary on the earnings call
Marathon Petroleum shares have lost about 12 2 since the beginning of the year versus the S P 500 s gain of 1 4
What s Next for Marathon Petroleum
While Marathon Petroleum has underperformed the market so far this year the question that comes to investors minds is what s next for the stock
There are no easy answers to this key question but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company s earnings outlook Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter s but also how these expectations have changed lately
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried and tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions
Ahead of this earnings release the estimate revisions trend for Marathon Petroleum was mixed While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company s just released earnings report the current status translates into a Zacks Rank 3 Hold for the stock So the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead The current consensus EPS estimate is 0 89 on 28 28 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and 7 on 132 84 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing is currently in the top 46 of the 250 plus Zacks industries Our research shows that the top 50 of the Zacks ranked industries outperform the bottom 50 by a factor of more than 2 to 1 |
MPC | 3 Top Dividend Stocks To Maximize Your Retirement Income February 06 2020 | Believe it or not seniors fear running out of cash more than they fear dying
Also retirees who have constructed a nest egg have valid justifications to be concerned since the traditional ways to plan for retirement may mean income can no longer cover expenses Some retirees are now tapping their principal to make a decent living pressed for time between decreasing investment balances and longer life expectancies
Your parents retirement investing plan won t cut it today
For example 10 year Treasury bonds in the late 1990s offered a yield of around 6 50 which translated to an income source you could count on However today s yield is much lower currently under 2 and probably not a viable return option to fund typical retirements
That means if you had 1 million in 10 year Treasuries the difference in yield between 1999 and today is more than 1 million
Today s retirees are getting hit hard by reduced bond yields and the Social Security picture isn t too rosy either Right now and for the near future Social Security benefits are still being paid but it has been estimated that the Social Security funds will be depleted as soon as 2035
So what can retirees do You could dramatically reduce your expenses and go out on a limb hoping your Social Security benefits don t diminish On the other hand you could opt for an alternative investment that gives a steady higher rate income stream to supplant lessening bond yields
Invest in Dividend Stocks
As we see it dividend paying stocks from generally low risk top notch companies are a brilliant way to create steady and solid income streams to supplant current low risk low yielding Treasury and fixed income alternatives
For example AT T NYSE T and Coca Cola NYSE KO are income stocks with attractive dividend yields of 3 or better Look for stocks like this that have paid steady increasing dividends for years or decades and have not cut their dividends even during recessions
One approach to recognizing appropriate stocks is to look for companies with an average dividend yield of 3 and positive average annual dividend growth Numerous stocks hike dividends over time counterbalancing inflation risks
Here are three dividend paying stocks retirees should consider for their nest egg portfolio
Brinker International EAT is currently shelling out a dividend of 0 38 per share with a dividend yield of 3 63 This compares to the Retail Restaurants industry s yield of 0 and the S P 500 s yield of 1 75 In terms of dividend growth the company s current annualized dividend of 1 52 is flat compared to last year
LCNB LCNB is paying out a dividend of 0 18 per share at the moment with a dividend yield of 4 13 compared to the Banks Northeast industry s yield of 1 83 and the S P 500 s yield Taking a look at the company s dividend growth its current annualized dividend of 0 72 is up 5 88 from last year
Currently paying a dividend of 0 53 per share Marathon Petroleum MPC has a dividend yield of 3 82 This is compared to the Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing industry s yield of 2 85 and the S P 500 s current yield Looking at dividend growth the company s current annualized dividend of 2 12 is up 15 22 from last year
But aren t stocks generally more risky than bonds
The fact is that stocks as an asset class carry more risk than bonds To counterbalance this invest in superior quality dividend stocks that not only can grow over time but more significantly can also decrease your overall portfolio volatility with respect to the broader stock market
An advantage of owning dividend stocks for your retirement nest egg is that numerous companies particularly blue chip stocks raise their dividends over time helping alleviate the impact of inflation on your potential retirement income
Thinking about dividend focused mutual funds or ETFs Watch out for fees
If you re thinking I want to invest in a dividend focused ETF or mutual fund make sure to do your homework It s important to know that some mutual funds and specialized ETFs charge high fees which may diminish your dividend gains or income and thwart the overall objective of this investment strategy If you do want to invest in fund research well to identify the best quality dividend funds with the least charges
Bottom Line
Regardless of whether you select high quality low fee funds or stocks looking for a steady stream of income from dividend paying equities can potentially lead you to a solid and more peaceful retirement
Generating income is just one aspect of planning for a comfortable retirement
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MS | Natural gas futures higher on cold weather forecasts | Investing com Natural gas prices traded higher Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather across much of the U S and bottom fishing investors On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 47 per million British thermal units during late U S trade gaining 0 96 Prices hit a high of USD2 58 per BTU earlier and a low of USD2 40 per BTU was posted during the trading session Natural gas prices were supported after the Commodity Weather Group stated it forecasts colder than normal temperatures into early next week on the east coast of the USA earlier in the week However prices fluctuated as traders said those expected brief periods of cold weather came far too late to dent the oversupply in the natural gas market Official supply data released last week showed that U S gas inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week 25 above both year ago levels and the five year average for this time of year In the prior week the surplus was 21 above historical levels Early estimates for next week s storage data range from a withdrawal of 78 billion cubic feet to 110 billion cubic feet well below last year s drop of 206 billion cubic feet and the five year average decline for the week of 191 billion This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels Winter so far in the U S has been the second mildest since 1950 It is running about 13 warmer than the 30 year normal according to recent data from industry weather group MDA EarthSat Gas prices fell to USD2 319 per million British thermal units on January 20 the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after a production cut announcement by Chesapeake Energy sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said earlier in the week that it had no intention of curbing gas production Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Earlier Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March soared 1 12 to trade at USD99 82 a barrel |
MS | Natural gas futures higher on cold weather forecasts | Investing com Natural gas prices traded higher Friday on forecasts for cooler weather across much of the U S and bottom fishing investors On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 49 per million British thermal units during early U S trade gaining 0 36 Prices hit a high of USD2 52 per BTU earlier and a low of USD2 45 per BTU was posted during the trading session Natural gas prices were supported after the Commodity Weather Group stated it forecasts colder than normal temperatures into early next week on the east coast of the USA earlier in the week However prices fluctuated as traders said those expected brief periods of cold weather came far too late to dent the oversupply in the natural gas market Official supply data released last week showed that U S gas inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week 25 above both year ago levels and the five year average for this time of year In the prior week the surplus was 21 above historical levels Early estimates for next week s storage data range from a withdrawal of 78 billion cubic feet to 110 billion cubic feet well below last year s drop of 206 billion cubic feet and the five year average decline for the week of 191 billion This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels Winter so far in the U S has been the second mildest since 1950 It is running about 13 warmer than the 30 year normal according to recent data from industry weather group MDA EarthSat Gas prices fell to USD2 319 per million British thermal units on January 20 the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after a production cut announcement by Chesapeake Energy sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said earlier in the week that it had no intention of curbing gas production Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Earlier Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March plunged 2 14 to trade at USD97 70 a barrel |
MS | Natural gas futures lower on supply warm weather | Investing com Natural gas prices traded lower Monday on continued warmer winter weather and increased inventories On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 44 per million British thermal units during late U S trade gaining 0 04 Prices hit a high of USD2 47 per BTU earlier and a low of USD2 40 per BTU was posted during the trading session Natural gas prices were supported after the Commodity Weather Group stated it forecasts colder than normal temperatures into early next week on the east coast of the USA last week However prices fluctuated as traders said those expected brief periods of cold weather came far too late to dent the oversupply in the natural gas market Official supply data released earlier showed that U S gas inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week 25 above both year ago levels and the five year average for this time of year In the prior week the surplus was 21 above historical levels Early estimates for next week s storage data range from a withdrawal of 78 billion cubic feet to 110 billion cubic feet well below last year s drop of 206 billion cubic feet and the five year average decline for the week of 191 billion This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels Winter so far in the U S has been the second mildest since 1950 It is running about 13 warmer than the 30 year normal according to recent data from industry weather group MDA EarthSat Gas prices fell to USD2 319 per million British thermal units on January 20 the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after a production cut announcement by Chesapeake Energy sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said earlier in the week that it had no intention of curbing gas production Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Earlier Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March climbed 1 91 to trade at USD100 92 a barrel |
MS | Wheat futures decline as ample global supplies weigh | Investing com Wheat futures resumed their downward trend on Tuesday as expectations for a record wheat crop in Australia added to the view that world supplies are sufficient to meet global demand On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange wheat futures for March delivery traded at USD6 3762 a bushel during European morning trade shedding 0 53 It earlier fell by as much as 0 87 to trade at a session low USD6 3512 a bushel Wheat prices came under pressure after Australia s Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences raised its forecast for Australian wheat production to a record high 29 5 million tonnes in the current marketing year 4 3 more than previously estimated and beating last year s record crop of 27 9 million tons Wheat output in Western Australia set to be the nation s biggest producer may total 11 7 million tons more than double last year s crop and 16 higher than the December estimate according to the bureau s report Australian wheat shipments were expected to total 22 3 million metric tons in the year to September 30 The figure is 3 2 more than forecast on December 6 and 20 higher than a year earlier Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report earlier that wheat prices were expected to underperform corn and soybeans in the near term citing flush supplies from Australia and Europe Australia is forecast to become the world s second largest wheat exporter in the 2011 12 season A higher crop outlook for the Pacific nation could result in reduced demand for U S supplies which is the world s third largest wheat producer and biggest exporter of the grain The U S Department of Agriculture last week raised its estimate for global wheat supplies before the 2012 Northern Hemisphere harvest to an all time high 213 1 million metric tons 1 5 higher than January s projection and 6 2 more than last year The prior record was set in the 1999 2000 season when stockpiles reached 210 7 million tons Wheat production estimates for the U S in 2012 2013 may be revised higher should improvements in the weather be sustained according to the Morgan Stanley report Elsewhere on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange corn for March delivery dropped 0 35 to trade at USD6 3738 a bushel while soybeans for March delivery traded at a four month high of USD12 5513 a bushel gaining 0 25 |
MS | Sugar futures edge lower on view that global supplies are ample | Investing com Sugar futures were down for a second day on Tuesday as prices came under pressure from a broadly stronger U S dollar and on the view that global supplies of the sweetener are more than ample to meet world demand On the ICE Futures U S Exchange sugar futures for March delivery traded at USD0 2434 a pound during European afternoon trade shedding 0 59 It earlier fell by as much as 0 69 to trade at a two day low of USD0 2430 a pound Sugar s losses came as the dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies was up 0 21 to trade at 79 25 A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of U S crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities less attractive as an alternative investment Demand for the safe haven U S dollar rose after ratings agency Moody s downgraded the credit ratings on six European countries including Spain and Italy late Monday France and Austria kept their top ratings but had their outlooks dropped to negative from stable Moody s also cut its ratings on Portugal Slovakia Slovenia and Malta while warning that it could downgrade the U K rekindling contagion worries Investors were also jittery as they continued to monitor developments surrounding Greece Attention now shifts to a meeting Wednesday of euro zone finance ministers who will discuss the approval of the debt laden country s second bailout before a March 20 deadline Also weighing on prices Thailand the world s second biggest sugar exporter shipped a record 6 68 million tonnes in 2011 up 51 from the previous year due to a bumper crop Meanwhile Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report Monday that it was bearish on the sweetener citing higher estimates of a production surplus of 7 69 million tonnes this season The bank also forecast a surplus of 4 93 million tonnes in the 2012 13 marketing year The bulk of bullish news is behind us and increased production out of Thailand Russia and India could push supplies even higher the bank said in a report The higher surplus estimate prompted the lender to downgrade its price forecast on the sweetener to USD0 2200 a pound in the 2011 12 season and to USD0 1900 a pound in 2012 13 Elsewhere on the ICE Futures Exchange cotton futures for March delivery dipped 0 1 to trade at USD0 9144 a pound while Arabica coffee for May delivery fell 0 5 to trade at USD2 1310 a pound |
MS | Natural gas futures plunge over 3 pre inventories | Investing com Natural gas prices plunged over 3 Wednesday as traders await U S supply data tomorrow On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 44 per million British thermal units during late U S trade plunging 3 67 Prices are trading to a high of USD2 57 per BTU and hit a low of 2 41 earlier in the session Investors are anticipating U S supply data on Thursday resulting in the sharp sell off Earlier natural gas prices were supported after the U S National Weather Service projected colder than normal temperatures for the next 6 to 10 days in U S Midwest West and Rocky Mountain region However prices fluctuated as traders said those expected brief periods of cold weather came far too late to dent the oversupply in the natural gas market Official supply data released earlier showed that U S gas inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week 25 above both year ago levels and the five year average for this time of year In the prior week the surplus was 21 above historical levels Early estimates for next week s storage data range from a withdrawal of 78 billion cubic feet to 110 billion cubic feet well below last year s drop of 206 billion cubic feet and the five year average decline for the week of 191 billion This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels Winter so far in the U S has been the second mildest since 1950 It is running about 13 warmer than the 30 year normal according to recent data from industry weather group MDA EarthSat Gas prices fell to USD2 319 per million British thermal units on January 20 the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after a production cut announcement by Chesapeake Energy sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said earlier in the week that it had no intention of curbing gas production Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Earlier Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March advanced 1 13 to trade at USD102 22 a barrel |
JPM | JP Morgan CEO says ops could be in several EU countries post Brexit | PARIS Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon N JPM said on Tuesday the bank would probably use Frankfurt as the legal domicile of its European operations after Brexit though jobs could be put elsewhere as well We will probably use the Frankfurt bank because we will have the licenses already Dimon said during a banking conference in Paris
But the people could be in Paris or Netherlands or Madrid We haven t decided yet we are here to talk to people Dimon added |
JPM | SocGen could move up to 400 CIB jobs from London mainly to Paris due to Brexit | PARIS Reuters France s Societe Generale PA SOGN could move 400 corporate and investment banking jobs out from London as part of its Brexit plans with most of them going mainly to Paris the bank s chief executive Frederic Oudea told Reuters At this stage it seems quite clear that it will be necessary to relocate a certain number of jobs to the euro zone Oudea told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Paris attended by French prime minister Edouard Philippe and banking executives from JP Morgan N JPM HSBC L HSBA BNP Paribas PA BNPP and Amundi PA AMUN In this scenario in the light of the decisions taken by the government we will concentrate the relocations in France added Oudea The new French government has stepped up efforts to attract London banks to Paris after Brexit by pledging to cut labor costs and ensure they do not face tougher regulations than European rivals
Oudea said the possible move of jobs post Brexit would concern 300 to 400 investment banking jobs out of 2 000 it has currently has overall in London |
JPM | JPMorgan hires new head of global government relations | Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co N JPM has hired a former chief of staff to majority leaders of the U S House of Representatives as its new head of global government relations according to an internal memo the bank provided on Wednesday Tim Berry will replace Nate Gatten who left in May after nearly nine years at the bank to become head of government relations for American Airlines O AAL
Berry who worked on Republican legislative agendas will also assist JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon in his role as chairman of the Business Roundtable according to the memo from Peter Scher head of corporate responsibility for JPMorgan |
C | No thanks Citigroup sues AT T for trademark infringement | By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK Reuters Citigroup Inc N C sued AT T Inc N T on Friday saying the phone company s use of thanks and AT T thanks in a new customer loyalty program infringed its trademark rights to the phrase thankyou The lawsuit may threaten the business relationship between two of the largest U S companies which Citigroup said dates to at least 1998 when they launched the AT T Universal Card In its complaint filed in the U S District Court in Manhattan Citigroup said it has since 2004 used thankyou extensively in promoting its own customer loyalty and reward programs including credit cards co branded with AT T But the New York based bank the nation s fourth largest by assets said the AT T thanks program launched on June 2 will likely confuse consumers and irreparably damaged its goodwill and reputation associated with the thankyou trademarks it uses for various banking services Citigroup also said Dallas based AT T asked the U S government in April to register an AT T thanks trademark despite knowing the bank s concerns AT T s infringement was knowing intentional and willful and forced Citigroup to sue to protect its rights the complaint said The lawsuit seeks to stop AT T from using the phrases thanks and AT T thanks in its programs and marketing It also seeks unspecified triple and punitive damages AT T plans to defend against the lawsuit spokesman Fletcher Cook said This may come as a surprise to Citigroup but the law does not allow one company to own the word thanks Cook said We re going to continue to say thanks to our customers Liz Fogarty a Citigroup spokeswoman declined to provide additional comment Citigroup said its thankyou programs have about 15 million members in the United States and that 1 7 million customers there have credit cards co branded by Citigroup and AT T
The case is Citigroup Inc v AT T Inc et al U S District Court Southern District of New York No 16 04333 |
C | Terra Firma boss Hands drops 2 billion EMI case against Citi | By Freya Berry LONDON Reuters Briton Guy Hands has withdrawn his case against Citigroup N C over the 2007 buyout of music label EMI his private equity firm Terra Firma said on Friday ending almost seven years of on off litigation over the disastrous deal Hands the outspoken founder of Terra Firma and a well known figure in the private equity world had been seeking damages of 1 5 billion pounds 2 2 billion alleging that the U S bank misled him over the EMI deal Terra Firma confirms it unreservedly withdraws its allegations of fraud a lawyer for the firm told a London court adding that it would also pay Citi s legal costs At the time of the acquisition Citigroup advised the then publicly listed EMI as well as providing financing to Terra Firma Terra Firma s case had focused on a series of alleged oral misrepresentations by senior Citi bankers David Wormsley Chad Leat and Michael Klein which it claimed led to the firm overpaying for EMI All three men were set to be called as witnesses at the trial These claims were brought in good faith Terra Firma said in an emailed statement However it has become evident that our documentation of the fast moving and complex events and memories of these events after nine years are no longer sufficient to meet the high demands of proof required for a fraud claim in court Citi welcomed the end of the case We are very pleased that Terra Firma has unreservedly withdrawn the allegations agreed to the dismissal of the proceedings and will pay Citi s costs in relation to this matter Citi said in a statement The latest court case over EMI the home of artists including The Beatles Pink Floyd and Kylie Minogue began only on Tuesday Terra Firma bought EMI for 2 4 billion pounds in 2007 at the height of the credit bubble But when EMI s performance slumped and the financial crisis hit the buyout house lost its entire investment and had its reputation severely dented Hands the man once known as the king of British private equity told the court that the deal personally cost him around 200 million euros 225 million
Hands had previously tried unsuccessfully to sue Citi in the United States |
C | Citi says still expects UK to vote Remain in EU referendum | LONDON Reuters U S bank Citi N C said on Friday it still expected Britons to vote to stay in the European Union in next week s referendum despite increased momentum for the Leave campaign Citi said a simple average of the past 10 opinion polls showed a 2 7 percentage point lead for Leave This fell to 0 2 percentage points after Citi adjusted the figures to even out the number of telephone and online polls and reduce the effect of different polling companies methodologies Flirtation with political alternatives is often followed by snapback to the status quo We expect this bias for the status quo to help tilt the outcome in favor of Remain Citi said
Recent events in the UK have led to suspension of campaigning and some increased uncertainty Overall we continue to put the risk of Brexit at the top of the 30 40 percent range |
JPM | Silver Manipulation Case Against JPMorgan Dismissed | A US federal court has dismissed a class action lawsuit that accuses JPMorgan Chase Company JPM its subsidiaries and 20 unnamed John Doe defendants of Silver manipulation Judge Robert P Patterson Jr found that the complaint contains many conclusory allegations but fails to provide the specific factual allegations needed to substantiate a claim The 90 page class action lawsuit names 44 plaintiffs who claim that they lost money and were injured in their property because the aforementioned defendants unlawfully combined conspired and agreed to manipulate the prices of COMEX Silver Futures and options contracts The plaintiffs allege that these acts occurred on June 26 2007 and between March 17 2008 and October 27 2010 Despite the lengthy period under consideration and the seemingly detailed complaint Judge Patterson found the case to be weak as it fails to link JPMorgan to a single manipulative act When alleging fraud or mistake a party must state with particularity the circumstances constituting fraud or mistake he wrote in his Opinion and Order Silver Market manipulation The Commodity Exchange Act prohibits both manipulation and attempted manipulation but the term manipulate is not defined Therefore to apply the rule of law the CFTC Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the courts have developed a four factor test to determine whether a defendant has manipulated prices Patterson noted The accused must have the ability to manipulate the market in question and exhibit specific intent to do so There must also be an artificial price and the accused must be the proximate cause of that price As is common in efforts to expose silver manipulation the plaintiffs lawsuit points to JPMorgan s short positions By August 15 2008 the suit claims that JPMorgan frequently held 24 32 percent of the open interest in COMEX Silver futures short contracts then trading JPMorgan did not challenge its ability to influence market prices and the court found that the complaint provides sufficient factual allegations to satisfy this factor of the test However after that the case appears to fall apart as the none of the remaining three elements are addressed As mentioned the court found that the plaintiffs made only conclusory and speculative allegations Plaintiffs claims concluding that JPMorgan as large holder of COMEX silver futures contracts short puts and options possessed the intent to hedge its holdings and manipulate market prices downward is not supported by sufficient factual allegations Patterson concluded He also noted that in its 2004 report on Silver manipulation the CFTC stated that t he mere holding of speculative positions by either commercial or non commercials is neither a violation of the CFTC or NYMEX rules nor evidence of manipulation Where the complaint claims that JPMorgan traders bragged about their large trades moving Silver Prices Patterson again notes weakness This generalized allegation does not state the date or the language of the remarks deemed to be bragging identify the traders who are alleged to have made these remarks discuss which of the many trades that took place over the more than two and a half year Class Period were the subject of the traders bragging or indicate that the traders were acting at the instigation of JPMorgan to move Silver prices on the market With regards to the existence of an artificial price the complaint points to silver s performance compared to gold s performance Plaintiffs raise these allegations without first explaining why COMEX Silver futures prices should be compared solely to the benchmark of Gold prices declared Patterson He said the CFTC compares prices of silver traded on the COMEX with those of silver traded in the London Bullion Market LBMA That is where the CFTC claims the benchmark value of silver in the marketplace is provided During the period under consideration the average difference between NYMEX and LBMA prices was approximately 5 percent and this fact undercuts the plaintiffs claims about artificial silver prices on COMEX during this time Patterson said Furthermore he added that when the CFTC compares silver to another metal it does not limit its view to a relationship with gold but also considers platinum and palladium In its report for its second silver manipulation investigation in 2008 the CFTC found that all four metals have similar price movements During the period under consideration in this case Patterson said these four metals have in general continued to exhibit similar price trends and in particular silver has continued to outperform platinum and palladium Even if the complaint had successfully proved that an artificial price existed Patterson found that the plaintiffs failed to connect silver prices to JPMorgan In an effort to show firm s impact the complaint points to March 25 2010 when the CFTC held a public hearing on metal prices After the exposure on the subject JPMorgan allegedly reduced its short positions by a third The plaintiffs argue that silver prices rose after this reduction One critical flaw in this argument is a failure to show a correlation between the hearing and rising prices because prices did not actually increase until August 2010 more than five months after the hearing Patterson said The plaintiffs deem that certain price fluctuations must have been caused by JPMorgan because no other information coming to the silver market explained the price behavior at that time Patterson found that this statement and others like it fail to allege specific conduct that might be reasonably attributed to the firm At one point the plaintiffs suit argues that it is difficult to imagine anyone else working alone who had the ability to cause such large price declines in prices which clearly benefited JPMorgan at least three times more than any other trader Patterson said the imagination required to link these conditions without corroborating factual allegations is tantamount to impermissible speculation on the basis of sheer possibility He pointed out that the CFTC has initiated investigations into alleged manipulation twice and has found that no manipulation occurred Furthermore the agency has an active investigation that has spanned more than three years and has not resulted in any charges being filed The complaint merely pleads facts that could be consistent with the defendants liability and stops short of the line between possibility and plausibility of entitlement to relief the judge concluded The case was dismissed on December 21 2012 and the plaintiffs were given 30 days from that time to show good cause as to why leave to file an amended complaint is necessary |
MPC | Marathon Petroleum MPC Stock Moves 0 15 What You Should Know | Marathon Petroleum MPC closed the most recent trading day at 60 38 moving 0 15 from the previous trading session This change lagged the S P 500 s daily of 0 Elsewhere the Dow gained 0 08 while the tech heavy Nasdaq lost 0 18
Prior to today s trading shares of the refiner had lost 1 63 over the past month This has lagged the Oils Energy sector s gain of 6 19 and the S P 500 s gain of 3 37 in that time
Investors will be hoping for strength from MPC as it approaches its next earnings release which is expected to be January 29 2020 On that day MPC is projected to report earnings of 1 10 per share which would represent a year over year decline of 54 36 Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of 29 80 billion down 8 43 from the year ago period
Looking at the full year our Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of 4 38 per share and revenue of 122 35 billion These totals would mark changes of 35 4 and 26 respectively from last year
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for MPC These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short term business trends As a result we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company s business outlook
Based on our research we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near team stock moves Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple actionable rating system
The Zacks Rank system ranges from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell It has a remarkable outside audited track record of success with 1 stocks delivering an average annual return of 25 since 1988 The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1 55 higher within the past month MPC is currently a Zacks Rank 2 Buy
Digging into valuation MPC currently has a Forward P E ratio of 13 82 This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry s average Forward P E of 19 96
We can also see that MPC currently has a PEG ratio of 1 14 This metric is used similarly to the famous P E ratio but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock s expected earnings growth rate Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing stocks are on average holding a PEG ratio of 2 38 based on yesterday s closing prices
The Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils Energy sector This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 78 putting it in the top 31 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
Make sure to utilize Zacks Com to follow all of these stock moving metrics and more in the coming trading sessions |
MPC | 5 High Earnings Yield Stocks For A Standout Portfolio | Investors often use P E ratio and other valuation metrics to pick undervalued stocks with solid upside potential However one can also use another interesting ratio Earnings yield expressed in percentage is calculated as Annual Earnings per Share Market Price x 100 While comparing stocks if other factors are similar investors can look out for the one with higher earnings yield This is because stocks with earnings yield have the potential to provide comparatively greater returns You must have heard of dividend yield Dividend per share Market Price which is one of the classic metrics for valuating stocks If we substitute dividend per share with earnings per share we get the earnings yield Just like the case with dividend yield firms with higher earnings yield are considered underpriced while those with lower earnings yield are seen as overpriced Notably earnings yield captures both the tangible and intangible yield of the firm as opposed to dividend yield which only takes into account the tangible yield The ratio of dividend yield to earnings yield indicates the proportion of earnings directly distributed in the form of dividend payout Importantly earnings yield can also be used to compare the performance of a market index with the 10 year Treasury yield For instance when the yield of the market index is more than the 10 year Treasury yield stocks can be considered as undervalued than bonds In this situation investing in the stock market would be a better option for a value investor Earnings Yield Simply the Inverse of P EEarnings yield is nothing but the reciprocal of one of the most popular valuation metrics i e the P E ratio stock price earnings per share Thus a firm having a P E ratio of 10 2 will logically have an earnings yield of 9 8 100 10 2 In fact as the concept of earnings yield is already indirectly captured in the P E ratio earnings yield as an investment valuation metric is not as widely used as the P E ratio Having said that it should be noted that earnings yield is an important tool for investors with exposure to both stocks and bonds In fact with regard to this earnings yield can be more illuminating than the traditional P E ratio as the former facilitates comparisons of stocks with fixed income securities Screening ParametersWe have set Earnings Yield greater than 10 as our primary screening criterion but it alone cannot be used for picking stocks that have the potential to generate solid returns So we have added the following parameters to the screen Estimated EPS growth for the next 12 months greater than or equal to the S P 500 This metric compares the 12 month forward EPS estimate with the 12 month actual EPS Average Daily Volume 20 Day greater than or equal to 100 000 High trading volume implies that a stock has adequate liquidity Current Price greater than or equal to 5 Buy Rated Stocks Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy or 2 Buy have been known to outperform peers in any type of market environment You can see Our PicksHere are five of the 50 stocks that made it through the screen Lithia Motors Inc NYSE LAD Oregon based Lithia Motors is one of the leading automotive retailers of new and used vehicles and related services in the United States It sports a Zacks Rank 1 and an expected EPS growth rate of 9 7 for the next 3 5 years Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC Findlay OH based Marathon Petroleum is a leading independent refiner transporter and marketer of petroleum products This Zacks Rank 2 firm has an expected EPS growth rate of 12 1 for the next 3 5 years Meritage Homes Corporation NYSE MTH Based in Scottsdale AZ Meritage Homes is one of the leading designers and builders of single family homes The company carries a Zacks Rank 2 and has an expected EPS growth rate of 9 for the next 3 5 years Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC NASDAQ JAZZ Dublin Ireland based Jazz Pharmaceuticals is a specialty biopharmaceutical company with focus on areas like sleep and hematology oncology It has a Zacks Rank 2 and an expected EPS growth rate of 11 3 for the next 3 5 years Barclays LON BARC PLC NYSE BCS Headquartered in London Barclays is a major global banking and financial services company It carries a Zacks Rank 1 and has an expected EPS growth rate of 2 8 for the next 3 5 years You can get the rest of the stocks on this list by signing up now for a 2 week free trial to the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting software You can also create your own strategies and test them first before making investments The Research Wizard is a great place to begin It s easy to use Everything is in plain language And it s very intuitive Start your Research Wizard trial today And the next time you read an economic report open up the Research Wizard plug your finds in and see what gems come out Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material Disclosure Performance information for Zacks portfolios and strategies are available at |
MPC | Zacks com Featured Highlights Include Lithia Motors Marathon Petroleum Meritage Homes Jazz Pharmaceuticals And Barclays PLC | For Immediate ReleaseChicago IL December 31 2019 Stocks in this week s article are Lithia Motors Inc NYSE LAD Marathon Petroleum Corp NYSE MPC Meritage Homes Corp NYSE MTH Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC NASDAQ JAZZ and Barclays LON BARC PLC NYSE BCS 5 High Earnings Yield Stocks for a Standout PortfolioInvestors often use P E ratio and other valuation metrics to pick undervalued stocks with solid upside potential However one can also use another interesting ratio Earnings yield expressed in percentage is calculated as Annual Earnings per Share Market Price x 100 While comparing stocks if other factors are similar investors can look out for the one with higher earnings yield This is because stocks with earnings yield have the potential to provide comparatively greater returns You must have heard of dividend yield Dividend per share Market Price which is one of the classic metrics for valuating stocks If we substitute dividend per share with earnings per share we get the earnings yield Just like the case with dividend yield firms with higher earnings yield are considered underpriced while those with lower earnings yield are seen as overpriced Notably earnings yield captures both the tangible and intangible yield of the firm as opposed to dividend yield which only takes into account the tangible yield The ratio of dividend yield to earnings yield indicates the proportion of earnings directly distributed in the form of dividend payout Importantly earnings yield can also be used to compare the performance of a market index with the 10 year Treasury yield For instance when the yield of the market index is more than the 10 year Treasury yield stocks can be considered as undervalued than bonds In this situation investing in the stock market would be a better option for a value investor Earnings Yield Simply the Inverse of P EEarnings yield is nothing but the reciprocal of one of the most popular valuation metrics i e the P E ratio stock price earnings per share Thus a firm having a P E ratio of 10 2 will logically have an earnings yield of 9 8 100 10 2 In fact as the concept of earnings yield is already indirectly captured in the P E ratio earnings yield as an investment valuation metric is not as widely used as the P E ratio Having said that it should be noted that earnings yield is an important tool for investors with exposure to both stocks and bonds In fact with regard to this earnings yield can be more illuminating than the traditional P E ratio as the former facilitates comparisons of stocks with fixed income securities For the rest of this Screen of the Week article please visit Zacks com at Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material About Screen of the WeekZacks com created the first and best screening system on the web earning the distinction as the 1 site for screening stocks by Money Magazine But powerful screening tools is just the start That is why Zacks created the Screen of the Week to highlight profitable stock picking strategies that investors can actively use Strong Stocks that Should Be in the NewsMany are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar They re virtually unknown to the general public Yet today s 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys were generated by the stock picking system that has more than doubled the market from 1988 through 2016 Its average gain has been a stellar 25 per year Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook NASDAQ FB Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities including a broker dealer and an investment adviser which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates Contact Jim GiaquintoCompany Zacks comPhone 312 265 9268Email Visit Zacks com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks Terms and Conditions of Service disclaimer Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
MPC | Earnings Preview Marathon Petroleum MPC Q4 Earnings Expected To Decline | Wall Street expects a year over year decline in earnings on lower revenues when Marathon Petroleum MPC reports results for the quarter ended December 2019 While this widely known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company s earnings picture a powerful factor that could impact its near term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates
The earnings report which is expected to be released on January 29 2020 might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations On the other hand if they miss the stock may move lower
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management s discussion of business conditions on the earnings call it s worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This refiner is expected to post quarterly earnings of 0 85 per share in its upcoming report which represents a year over year change of 64 7
Revenues are expected to be 29 69 billion down 8 8 from the year ago quarter
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 14 59 lower over the last 30 days to the current level This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change
Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company s earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model the Zacks Earnings ESP Expected Surprise Prediction
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier
Thus a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate However the model s predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy 2 Buy or 3 Hold Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70 of the time and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and or Zacks Rank of 4 Sell or 5 Strong Sell
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Marathon Petroleum
For Marathon Petroleum the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0
On the other hand the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3
So this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Marathon Petroleum will beat the consensus EPS estimate
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue
Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings So it s worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number
For the last reported quarter it was expected that Marathon Petroleum would post earnings of 1 30 per share when it actually produced earnings of 1 63 delivering a surprise of 25 38
Over the last four quarters the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors Similarly unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss
That said betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success This is why it s worth checking a company s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they ve reported
Marathon Petroleum doesn t appear a compelling earnings beat candidate However investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release |
MS | European stocks hold gains after ADP report DAX soars 2 1 | Investing com European stock markets held on to sharp gains on Wednesday despite disappointing U S employment data as market sentiment remained firm amid hopes for an imminent debt restructuring agreement for Greece During European afternoon trade the EURO STOXX 50 jumped 1 7 France s CAC 40 rallied 1 5 while Germany s DAX 30 soared 2 1 European equities remained higher after U S payroll processing firm ADP said that U S non farm private employment rose by 170 000 in January falling short of expectations for a gain of 190 000 Market sentiment was boosted earlier by better than expected German PMI data and fresh hopes that talks with Greece s creditors are close to being concluded Shares in the financial sector extended gains French banks Societe Generale and BNP Paribas which both have high exposure to Greek sovereign debt soared 5 45 and 3 35 respectively while German lenders Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank jumped 3 and 3 1 Peripheral lenders were also higher with Italy s Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit surging 4 8 and 3 2 respectively while Spain s Banco Santander rose 2 2 German chip maker Infineon Technologies saw shares rally 5 35 after saying that fiscal first quarter revenue rose 3 to EUR946 million above expectations for sales of EUR933 million German utility providers RWE rose 4 after Morgan Stanley added the stock to its best ideas list Shares in rival E On gained 3 7 Meanwhile shares in stock exchange operator Deutsche Boerse rose 1 after European Union regulators vetoed its planned acquisition of NYSE Euronext operator of the New York Stock Exchange citing competition grounds In London FTSE 100 rose 1 25 after a report showed that the U K manufacturing sector rebounded strongly in January expanding at the fastest pace in eight months Shares in interdealer broker ICAP led gains jumping 6 25 despite warning that full year profit will be in a lower range than analysts estimated in November as the euro zone s sovereign debt crisis curbed investor risk appetite U K lenders also contributed to gains with Royal Bank of Scotland rallying 4 6 Barclays gaining 5 2 while Lloyds Banking Group added 3 45 In the U S equity markets pointed to a higher open as markets shrugged off downbeat earnings from online retail giant Amazon The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a rise of 0 6 S P 500 futures signaled a 0 65 increase while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0 5 gain Later Wednesday the U S Institute for Supply Management was to release a report on manufacturing activity |
MS | Natural gas futures fall nearly 6 on over supply warm winter | Investing com Natural gas prices dropped for the third day Wednesday as U S over supply concerns and a mild winter continue to weigh on the heating fuel On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 36 per million British thermal units during late U S trade plunging 5 65 It traded at a high of USD2 47 per BTU and hit a low of USD2 36 per BTU earlier in the session Natural gas prices have plummeted nearly 17 since Monday Yesterday prices booked the largest January loss in three years spiking down 7 8 on forecasts of continued mild winter weather and increased production levels signaled no end to the supply glut Industry weather group MDA EarthSat stated on Friday that it forecasts colder than normal temperatures throughout the U S east coast and southern states over the next 11 to 15 days resulting in a short lived rally last week in the heating fuel Earlier adding to the bearish environment The U S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that it expects the warmer than normal winter temperatures on the East Coast Midwest and much of the Southwest to continue through mid February adding to the long term bearish sentiment Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Traders are anticipating Thursday s U S Energy Information Administration s weekly report on U S natural gas stockpiles to ascertain current conditions Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March gave back 1 19 to trade at USD97 31 a barrel |
MS | Natural gas futures extend gains after supply data | Investing com Natural gas futures advanced on Thursday halting a sharp three day decline after a report from the U S Energy Information Administration showed that natural gas inventories declined more than expected last week however gains were limited as mild weather across the U S continues to limit demand for gas fired heating On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for delivery in March traded at USD2 442 per million British thermal units during U S morning trade rallying 2 5 It earlier rose by as much as 2 95 to trade at a session high of USD2 453 per million British thermal units The March contract traded at USD2 390 prior to the release of the U S Energy Information Administration report The U S Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U S in the week ended January 27 fell by 132 billion cubic feet after declining by 192 billion cubic feet in the preceding week Analysts had expected U S natural gas storage to drop by 126 billion cubic feet Inventories fell by 171 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier while the five year average change for the week is a decline of 202 billion cubic feet according to U S Energy Department data Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week Stocks were 586 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 601 billion cubic feet above the five year average of 2 365 trillion cubic feet for this time of year The report showed that in the East Region stocks were 218 billion cubic feet above the five year average following a withdrawal of 100 billion cubic feet Stocks in the Producing Region were 310 billion cubic feet above the five year average of 789 billion cubic feet after a net withdrawal of 22 billion cubic feet Natural gas prices have lost nearly 17 5 in the three sessions leading up to Thursday On Tuesday prices posted the biggest January loss in three years dropping 7 8 as forecasts for milder weather and increased production signaled no end to a glut of the heating fuel Above normal temperatures are expected across much of the U S in February the U S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Wednesday NOAA said the area of above normal temperatures will stretch further into the northern and western Plains than had been projected earlier This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 forecast for natural gas prices by nearly 30 citing weaker than expected heating demand The bank slashed its estimate to an average of USD2 70 per million British thermal units down from a previous forecast of USD3 85 Last week gas prices fell as low as USD2 319 per million British thermal units the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after production cut announcements by major U S natural gas producers sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said Tuesday it had no intention of curbing gas production Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March fell 0 75 to trade at USD96 89 a barrel while heating oil for March delivery added 0 36 to trade at USD3 056 per gallon |
MS | Natural gas futures lower on warm weather | Investing com Natural gas prices dropped Friday as warmer than normal weather continues in the north east U S and high inventory levels pressure the heating fuel lower On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 49 per million British thermal units during mid U S trade giving back 2 49 It hit a high of 2 58 per BTU and a low of 2 46 per BTU on the session The U S Energy Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the week ending January 27 fell by 132 billion cubic feet after falling 192 billion cubic feet the previous week Natural gas prices have plummeted nearly 17 since Monday Tuesday prices booked the largest January loss in three years spiking down 7 8 on forecasts of continued mild winter weather and increased production levels signaled no end to the supply glut Earlier The U S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that it expects the warmer than normal winter temperatures on the East Coast Midwest and much of the Southwest to continue through mid February adding to the long term bearish sentiment Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March climbed 0 60 to trade at USD96 94 a barrel |
MS | Natural gas futures Weekly outlook February 6 10 | Investing com Natural gas prices resumed their downward trend on Friday as ongoing concerns over elevated U S inventory levels and mild winter weather continued to dampen sentiment on the heating fuel On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for delivery in March settled at USD2 507 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday plummeting 11 5 over the week Natural gas prices came under pressure on Friday retreating 1 8 after the U S National Weather Service s most recent six to ten day weather outlook called for average temperatures across the eastern and central part of the U S with above average temperatures expected in the U S Northwest The U S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration offered a similar outlook saying above normal temperatures were expected across much of the U S in February This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels The bearish outlook prompted Societe Generale to cut its 2012 average natural gas price forecast to USD2 40 per million British thermal units down from a previous estimate of USD2 90 Also Friday Citigroup said that it continues to see below average U S storage withdrawals and time running out on the larger heating season leaving the market at risk for further price weakness Earlier in the week Morgan Stanley slashed its 2012 forecast for natural gas prices by nearly 30 citing weaker than expected heating demand The bank expected prices to average USD2 70 per million British thermal units compared to a previous forecast of USD3 85 Natural gas prices soared nearly 7 1 on Thursday after a report from the U S Energy Information Administration showed that natural gas storage in the U S fell by a greater than expected 132 billion cubic feet in the preceding week amid a brief cold snap Inventories fell by 171 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier while the five year average change for the week is a decline of 202 billion cubic feet according to U S Energy Department data Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week 25 above both year ago levels and the five year average for this time of year In the prior week the surplus was 21 above historical levels Natural gas prices tumbled approximately 17 5 in the three sessions leading up to Thursday On Tuesday prices posted the biggest January loss in three years dropping 7 8 as forecasts for increased production signaled no end to a glut of the heating fuel The U S EIA said that gas output from the lower 48 U S states rose by 1 3 in November to a record 72 61 billion cubic feet from 71 69 billion in October Total U S output gained 2 7 to 82 7 billion cubic feet a day as production in Alaska rose 14 In a research note Barclays Capital called the new figures stunning Gas prices fell to USD2 319 per million British thermal units on January 20 the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after a production cut announcement by Chesapeake Energy sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said earlier in the week that it had no intention of curbing gas production Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery traded at USD97 83 a barrel by close of trade on Friday retreating 1 68 on the week while heating oil for March delivery gained 1 28 over the week to settle at USD3 113 per gallon by close of trade Friday |
MS | Natural gas futures gain despite over supply | Investing com Natural gas prices bounced higher on Monday on bargain hunting despite record high supplies and warm winter weather in the north east United States On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 55 per million British thermal units during late U S trade gaining 2 12 It is presently trading at the high of the session and hit a low of USD2 45 earlier Bargain hunters and oil speculators bought the heating fuel today on hopes that the bottom is in despite the hugely negative fundamental picture The U S Energy Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the week ending January 27 fell by 132 billion cubic feet after falling 192 billion cubic feet the previous week Earlier The U S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that it expects the warmer than normal winter temperatures on the East Coast Midwest and much of the Southwest to continue through mid February adding to the long term bearish sentiment Official data indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet earlier Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March dropped 0 83 to trade at USD97 03 a barrel |
MS | Natural gas futures drop despite cold weather forecasts | Investing com Natural gas prices traded lower Monday falling from a one week high despite forecasts for cooler weather across much of the U S On the New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures for March delivery traded at USD2 48 per million British thermal units during late U S trade falling 2 61 Prices hit a high of USD2 617 per BTU earlier and a low of USD2 45 per BTU was posted during the trading session Natural gas prices were supported after the Commodity Weather Group stated it forecasts colder than normal temperatures into early next week on the east coast of the USA However prices could not maintain gains as traders said the expected brief periods of cold weather came far too late to dent the oversupply in the natural gas market Official supply data released last week showed that U S gas inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 2 966 trillion cubic feet as of last week 25 above both year ago levels and the five year average for this time of year In the prior week the surplus was 21 above historical levels Early estimates for next week s storage data range from a withdrawal of 78 billion cubic feet to 110 billion cubic feet well below last year s drop of 206 billion cubic feet and the five year average decline for the week of 191 billion This is typically the coldest time in winter but temperatures in the U S have yet to reach levels cold enough to boost demand for the heating fuel keeping prices depressed at unseasonably low levels Winter so far in the U S has been the second mildest since 1950 It is running about 13 warmer than the 30 year normal according to recent data from industry weather group MDA EarthSat Gas prices fell to USD2 319 per million British thermal units on January 20 the lowest since February 2002 before rebounding after a production cut announcement by Chesapeake Energy sparked a massive short covering rally However optimism faded amid the lack of production cut announcements from other major U S natural gas producers Exxon Mobil the largest U S natural gas producer said earlier in the week that it had no intention of curbing gas production Official data last week indicated that U S gas supplies fell by 192 billion cubic feet The drawdown was above the 184 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier It also topped the five year average withdraw of 173 billion cubic feet for the week Despite this significant drop inventories remain at their highest level ever for this time of year Total U S natural gas storage stood at 3 098 trillion cubic feet as of last week Earlier Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 natural gas price forecast by almost 30 to an average USD2 70 per BTU Elsewhere on the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March soared 1 83 to trade at USD98 68 a barrel |
JPM | JPMorgan analyst expects Twitter revenue drops in Q2 and Q3 | JPMorgan NYSE JPM analyst Doug Anmuth maintains his Neutral rating and 15 price target on Twitter NYSE TWTR but warns that his previous Q4 estimate for 2 growth might prove overly optimistic Anmuth approves of recent product changes but questions how quickly Twitter can recapture ad revenue Notes that Twitter has steady download numbers and has grown in app store ratings compared to last year s period The comScore time spent in the app dropped in April and May as did mobile unique viewers The analyst expects 4M new monthly active users in Q2 and revenue drops in Q2 and Q3 Source StreetInsider Twitter shares are up one cent premarket to 17 93 Now read |
JPM | France steps up efforts to lure London banks to Paris | By Jean Baptiste Vey PARIS Reuters French authorities on Friday stepped up efforts to attract London banks to Paris after Brexit by pledging to cut labor costs and ensure they do not face tougher regulations than European rivals Many international banks in London are trying to decide where to shift operations to maintain access to the European Union s single market after Britain leaves the EU There is fierce competition between Paris Frankfurt and other European cities to woo the banks based in the City of London financial center and some have already announced plans to move staff Until now Paris rivals including Frankfurt Dublin and Luxembourg have been making the headlines as the locations banks insurers and asset managers have chosen to open new hubs Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said the government would scrap the highest bracket of payroll tax for firms like banks that do not pay VAT cancel a planned extension of tax on share trading It would also make sure that bankers bonuses are no longer taken into account when labor courts decide on unfair dismissal compensation Promoting the financial attractiveness of Paris is promoting France s economic attractiveness Philippe said Every banker every trader who settles in Paris triggers the creation of other jobs The payroll tax France charges banks and some other sectors such as real estate and healthcare is a charge that companies pay on each salaried employee It is not levied in most other European countries Tax was a big concern for London bankers at a roadshow organized by a French finance industry lobby in February this year to promote Paris as a financial center Germany is also looking at making it easier to hire and fire senior bankers in a relaxation of its labor laws to help to attract financial firms to Frankfurt after Brexit Philippe also pledged to review and change on a case by case basis the way EU financial regulations are transposed into French law The French law has sometimes opted for overregulation when the European standards for the financial sectors were transposed a document published by Philippe s office said This could have had imposed additional burden on businesses compared to European rivals LAST CHANCE President Emmanuel Macron a former investment banker has a hard task to convince the investment community that France does not see the financial sector as an enemy a phrase once used by former socialist President Francois Hollande Early next week Philippe is due to give a speech to bankers at a conference in Paris where the chief executive of U S investment bank JP Morgan N JPM Jamie Dimon is expected to attend according to the agenda on the event s website Banks are coming under some pressure to decide where to move The European Central Bank said on June 30 that banks should step up their Brexit preparations while the Bank of England wants details of financial firms contingency plans by July 14 But Britain is also pushing for a Brexit deal that would allow UK based finance firms to continue to operate relatively freely in the EU after March 2019 when Brexit is due to take effect
Andrew Bailey the head of Britain s Financial Conduct Authority said on Thursday Brexit did not necessarily mean an end to free trade in financial services |
JPM | Years into recovery and with full employment U S wages still lag | By Ann Saphir
SAN FRANCISCO Reuters The U S economy is now a decade on from the start of the global financial crisis and at what most economists view as full employment yet when it comes to wage rises the answer seems to be forget about it
Government data on Friday showed that average hourly earnings in June rose just 2 5 percent on the year and have slowed in the past two quarters rather than accelerating even as workers become scarce due to continued economic strength
The lack of wage growth is mirrored across the developed world most of which has staged a slower recovery than the United States
For decades higher wages had been driven by gains in worker productivity but there are few signs now of an investment boom or of innovations fundamentally changing the way work is done Productivity growth in the U S has averaged just one percent since 2005 half the level of 1990 2004 in the past five years the annual growth rate has been a dismal 0 5 percent
There is no shortage of explanation as to why wage growth remains tepid shadow slack reduced bargaining power due to globalization de unionization automation etc but what is puzzling is that wage growth at least according to the average hourly earnings measure was clearly accelerating in 2015 and 2016 JPMorgan NYSE JPM Economist Michael Feroli wrote after the data release
Why it would slow only in the last two quarters is a mystery
While most economists say the jobs numbers alone are enough to keep the Federal Reserve on a path to hike rates again this year the slow wages growth implies limits to how high the Fed can push rates and raises questions about the longer term health of the U S economy which depends on consumer spending for 70 percent of its activity
International Monetary Fund data shows that across the developed world the share of national income paid out to workers had fallen to less than 40 percent by 2015 from close to 55 percent in 1970 driven largely by technological change and globalization
You can t continue to get all this job growth but there is no wage pressure So something is not adding up at all said JJ Kinahan chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago
In March 2014 Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she believed that perhaps 3 and 4 percent wage inflation would be normal Now the level appears to be stuck lower
The new benchmark for what we call good is lower than what we historically thought said San Francisco Fed chief researcher Mary Daly one of the Fed system s top labor economists
I would suggest the landing place doesn t seem surprising to me given that we have very low productivity growth and inflation that s not up to 2 percent Daly said in an interview last month
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Thursday the government could take some steps to boost productivity Among these would be investing in basic research infrastructure education and public health including clean air and drinking water |
C | New credit card scrutiny sends Indonesians back to cash | By Gayatri Suroyo and Fransiska Nangoy
JAKARTA Reuters Indonesia s plan to track all credit card transactions in a bid to crack down on rampant tax evasion is pushing people back to cash stifling government efforts to track illicit money flows
A new government decree requiring credit card providers to submit transaction details including customer and merchant identities to the tax office as of May 31 appears to be spooking consumers with card activity falling in April
The return to paper currency in the already heavily cash based economy is a temporary setback not only for the government s drive to boost tax revenues but also its fight against money laundering corruption and terrorism finance
And for consumers wary of increasing scrutiny on their transactions a preference for paper means carrying around envelopes full of hundreds of bank notes in a country where the largest currency denomination is 100 000 rupiah
Erwin Karya a Jakarta based associate director with real estate agent Ray White said clients were now starting to use cash instead of card to pay property booking fees non refundable deposits used to book properties before home downpayments
People don t want to risk swiping credit cards for booking fees he said
For 10 25 million rupiah they just pay in cash for the booking fee
Indonesian central bank data showed credit card transaction values dropped 4 percent in April from the same month a year ago the first on year decline in the six years of public data records
The number of credit card transactions meanwhile fell by two million in April from a month before to 23 7 million transactions
Bank Central Asia one of the largest credit card providers saw its transactions fall 15 percent and card cancellations more than double in April head of the bank s consumer card business Santoso told Reuters
I don t think they re all avoiding taxes but some did say they feel their privacy disturbed they re not comfortable Santoso said noting most of the cancellations came from self employed individuals
Other providers face the same problem said Steve Martha chairman of Indonesia s credit card issuers association
People should be incentivized to use cards not penalized he said
Cash which in Indonesia is already used for 85 percent of transactions is difficult to track making it challenging for governments to fight money laundering corruption and terrorism financing
About 7 8 million Indonesians own credit cards some using more than one for a total of 16 9 million credit card catered by 22 banks and one non bank issuer These include the country s biggest banks Bank Mandiri JK BMRI Bank Central Asia JK BBCA and foreign players like HSBC L HSBA Citibank N C and Standard Chartered L STAN
Under pressure from falling exports Jakarta launched last year measures to boost tax revenues including a tax amnesty for those willing to relocate back home money hidden in offshore accounts
Only 10 percent of Indonesia s 250 million population are registered with tax authorities and annual tax revenues amount to 11 percent of gross domestic product 30 billion less than what it should be President Joko Widodo has said
Credit card bills and other electronic payments can be effectively used to track down corruption cases said Agus Santoso deputy head of Indonesia s Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre
It will be harder to prove cases if people go back to cash he said but he didn t expect the trend to last in the long run
There s no way people choose to carry millions of rupiah in cash in a bulging wallet to pay for high end stuff he said
Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stood by his decree
If there are things that they are afraid to declare it means their income is more than what they say to the tax office he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Jakarta earlier this month |
C | Latest threat to online lenders stacking of multiple loans | By Heather Somerville Olivia Oran and Joy Wiltermuth SAN FRANCISCO NEW YORK Reuters IFR Many online lenders have failed to detect the stacking of multiple loans by borrowers who slip through their automated underwriting systems lending company executives and investors told Reuters The practice is proliferating in the sector led by LendingClub OnDeck and Prosper Marketplace because of many lenders hurried algorithmic underwriting use of soft credit inquiries and patchy reporting of the resulting loans to credit bureaus according to online lending and consumer credit experts Such loopholes they said can result in multiple lenders making loans to the same borrowers often within a short period without the full picture of their rising obligations and deteriorating ability to pay Stacking is causing problems with the whole industry said Brian Biglin chief risk officer of LoanDepot a five year old mortgage lender that last year started making personal loans online New revelations of loose lending could make it harder for the beleaguered sector to win back trust from investors who are already concerned about slipshod underwriting and rising default risk The marketplace lending industry which last year hit 18 billion in annual loan originations has seen plummeting share prices and the retreat of some major backers including BlackRock and Citigroup NYSE C Industry leaders LendingClub and Avant said they are aware of stacking and its dangers but they downplayed the risks and did not provide examples of specific actions taken to prevent the practice OnDeck and Prosper said they have launched efforts to detect and guard against stacking We have established proprietary algorithms said Prosper spokeswoman Sarah Cain Some higher risk lenders allow and promote stacking as debt consolidation but most lenders consider it a threat particularly when not disclosed Edward Hanson the owner of Ella s Wood Fire Pizza said he started stacking loans about five years ago to sustain his business You take out another one to help you pay for the first Hanson said Hanson 55 said he already had loans from a variety of online lenders when he received offers from online business lenders OnDeck and Kabbage which approved his application he said OnDeck knew Hanson had at least one other loan when he applied in August of 2014 and required that the existing debt be paid off as a condition of the new loan said company spokesman Jim Larkin When Hanson came back a year later OnDeck declined his application because Hanson had stacked loans during the course of repayment Larkin said Kabbage declined to comment on Hanson s loans and did not respond to questions about its stacking policies Hanson now pays nearly 40 percent interest on his latest loan from yet another lender I pretty much feel trapped he said NERVOUS INVESTORS Institutional investors have lately grown wary of marketplace lenders after initially hailing them as disruptors of banks and credit card companies Wall Street money is crucial for most online lenders who need it to fund their loans Citigroup ended its partnership with Prosper earlier this year The bank had repackaged about 1 5 billion of Prosper s loans into securities since the partnership began less than a year ago Investor sentiment was hammered again last month by a scandal at industry leader LendingClub The company knowingly sold 22 million in loans that did not meet the agreed specifications of one investment bank Jefferies and falsified the applications of 3 million of those loans LendingClub is under investigation by the U S Department of Justice the company said last month and a number of its large investors have halted investments in the wake of its chief executive s resignation The New York Department of Financial Services also has said it will launch a probe into online lenders Now concerns about stacking are adding to the industry s woes One investment firm that was considering buying equity in a marketplace lender described stacking as a sector blind spot The firm declined to be named Bill Kassul a partner in Ranger Capital Group which has about 300 million invested in marketplace lending and business lending said stacking has become a concern in the last two years and poses a big risk to investors Blue Elephant Capital Management stopped buying loans from Prosper for several months recently over concerns about weak underwriting and profitability Marketplace lenders need to slow their lending processes and improve sharing of credit information said Brian Weinstein chief investment officer at Blue Elephant Stacking was one of the reasons why we think we saw credit deteriorate last summer when we stopped our marketplace lending program Weinstein said Blue Elephant last month announced plans to resume buying Prosper loans in part because the company is charging higher interest rates SOFT CREDIT CHECKS In their haste to give applicants quick loan decisions sometimes within 24 hours some marketplace lenders do not conduct thorough credit checks known as hard inquiries according to industry executives Such checks create an updated log of credit and loan applications and they can lower a borrower s credit score Soft inquiries don t require the borrower s consent and don t usually show up on credit reports OnDeck said it runs only soft checks LendingClub and Prosper said they initially run soft checks but run hard checks later in the process just before funding loans Running hard checks only at the last minute however can also leave other lenders in the dark said Gilles Gade president and CEO of Cross River Bank which invests in many online lending platforms At that point the borrower may have already obtained other loans he said because hard checks can take about 30 days to show up on a credit report Another problem Loans that never show up on credit reports at all because of uneven reporting by online lenders Not all lenders in our industry report to bureaus said Leslie Payne a spokeswoman for LendUp which makes high interest installment loans In a February blog post Experian the credit bureau said a significant number of marketplace lenders do not report their loans Prosper Avant and LendingClub told Reuters that they report their loans to all three major credit bureaus at least monthly OnDeck said it reports to several leading commercial credit bureaus including Experian and PayNet Many lenders said they also pull data from other sources including paystubs tax documents and accounting software for businesses to size up a borrower s ability to pay LoanDepot said it has taken several steps to mitigate the risks of stacking including requiring months of bank statements for its borrowers and building custom algorithms to flag potential stacking activity WHEN THE MUSIC STOPS Most online lenders focus on either business or consumer lending Those lending to small businesses may face greater risk from stacking in part because of a separate class of high risk high interest business lenders that actively promotes the practice Merchant cash advance lenders make loans based mainly on a business s expected revenue rather than its credit record or existing debts They often scour databases of business loans such as those by OnDeck or Kabbage and use them as marketing leads to find new borrowers online lending executives and investors said OnDeck has made efforts to educate customers to stay away from lenders offering stacked loans said Chief Operating Officer James Hobson It has also started monitoring borrowers more frequently and joined the Small Business Finance Exchange an effort to share lending data to guard against stacking After OnDeck turned down the second application from Hanson the pizzeria owner he turned to World Business Lenders a small business lender founded in 2011 He now pays 39 percent interest Hanson would not detail his balance or his payments but said he put up his house as collateral The company said Hanson s latest loan reduced his payments from 44 percent of his business s revenue to 12 percent by offering a longer term Some small business owners will keep borrowing as long as lenders grant approvals taking one loan after another said chief executive Doug Naidus But at some point he cautioned the principal needs to get paid back
The fifth stack pays the fourth stack and the sixth stack pays the fifth stack Naidus said But when the music stops everybody s got to find a chair |
C | India To Unify Tax Near Term Pain Long Term Gain For ETFs | Markets in India have put up a solid show so far this year on a buoyant economy Continuing the upbeat momentum India is now set to launch the goods and services tax or GST from July 1 for the first time since independence This tax will fill in for unite more than a of indirect taxes levied by state and central governments The initiative is aimed at beefing up government revenues
Why is GST So Important
The move is expected to create seamless business transaction lower cost of production of goods and reduce inflation an economic issue that India normally grapples with read
As per India presently has one of the worst tax to GDP ratios of 16 6 among key economies less than half the OECD average of 34 and also below several emerging economies But with the implementation of GST which is in emerging economies India will come out of that issue
The government estimates that companies would be able to save around 14 billion under the GST scheme as the tax system will allow them to organize their warehouses and supply chains more efficiently
As per IMF GST will drive India s medium term growth to above while some analysts expect the implementation of GST to boost GDP by 1 5 2 over the long term read
Is It a Near Term Pain and Long Term Gain
Apart from the bullish ones there are other views as well Citigroup Inc NYSE C s economists last year analyzed that countries like Canada Australia and New Zealand saw a one time increase in inflation after GST implementation which normalized in a year This pattern can be considered as a short term negative read
Moreover some weakness in the corporate earnings from GST may be noticed in the second quarter due to the rush of inventory clearances at discounted prices As per retailers are reluctant to load fresh stocks and are uncertain about getting credit for their present inventories under the GST scheme
Investors should note that the final two quarters of the current fiscal will decide if there is any slack in consumer demand from GST as several items like luxury hotels and telecom services will likely see higher tax rates Some advanced consumption during the pre GST sale period may be a drag on consumption in future quarters However certain business segments are likely to see an overall outlays
said that tax on services that account for around 60 per cent of the GDP is expected to increase under GST while taxes on manufactured products that make up 17 per cent of the GDP can move lower If this becomes be the taxation pattern in the GST era advanced consumption will only be natural
and credit rating agency Moody s said that the near term impact of GST will be moderate However Moody s expects long term benefits to include higher productivity growth due to efficiency gains in business operations greater investment as interstate tax barriers are reduced enhanced tax compliance and an expanded revenue base
ETFs to Buy
Against this backdrop investors may jump on to buy India s long term growth story but buying large cap ETFs seems prudent Large cap stocks have greater foreign exposure Since international economies are on the mend and domestic economy may see some upheaval on the rollout of a new tax system it is better to bet on large cap India ETFs like iShares India 50 ETF JK INDY PowerShares India Portfolio and iShares MSCI India Index Fund at the current level see here
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C | Will Trump Fire Yellen or Vice Versa | Citigroup s NYSE C Economic Surprise Index just hit its lowest level since August 2011 But this level of disappointment has ironically emboldened the Fed to step up its hawkish monetary rhetoric The truth is that hard economic data is grossly missing analyst estimates to the downside as the economy inexorably grinds toward recession This anemic growth and inflation data should have been sufficient to stay the Fed s hand for the rest of this year and cause it to forgo the unwinding of its balance sheet
But that s not what s happening Janet Yellen and Co are threatening at least one more rate hike and to start selling what will end up to be around 2 trillion worth of mortgage backed securities and Treasuries before the end of the year starting at 10 billion each month and slowly growing to a maximum of 60 billion per month
Why The Rush
But why is the Fed suddenly in such a rush to normalize interest rates and its balance sheet Perhaps it is because Ms Yellen wants to fire Trump before she hears his favorite mantra you re fired when her term expires in early 2018 It isn t a coincidence that the Keynesian liberals at the Fed started to ignore the weak data concurrently with the election of the new president
A Q1 GDP print of just 1 4 has not dissuaded the FOMC of its hawkish stance And a lack of evidence for a Q2 rebound in the data hasn t done so either April housing data was very weak New home sales in the single family category were down 11 4 existing home sales were also down 2 5 And even though there was a small bounce in housing data in May pending home sales have fallen three months in a row and were down 0 8 in May Retail sales dropped 0 3 and durable goods declined 1 1 during May while the key metric for business productivity core capital goods orders fell 0 2
It s not just economic growth indicators that are disappointing but also evidence of disinflation abound everywhere Measures of Consumer Price Inflation and the Personal Consumption Expenditure price indexes are falling further away from Fed s 2 target Commodity prices are also illustrating signs of deflation The CRB Inde is down 14 so far this year and WTI crude oil is in a bear market Further evidence of deflation is seen in the fact that the spread between long and short term Treasury Yields are contracting There has been a six month decline in C I loan growth and the household survey within the Nonfarm Payroll report turned negative in May The Household Survey is a leading indicator for the Establishment Survey and the overall employment condition
Wall Street s currently favorite narrative is one of strong earnings growth But according to FactSet nearly half of Q2 s projected 6 5 EPS growth is from energy Excluding this sector EPS growth is projected to be just 3 6 The projected average price of WTI crude for Q3 is 54 29 With the oil price now hovering around 43 per barrel the hoped for boost to EPS growth from energy will turn into a big drag unless crude turns around quickly
The economy should continue to move further away from the Fed s growth and inflation targets as its previous monetary tightening starts to bite But one last nail in the coffin for Fed hawks will be an NFP report sub 50K The odds are very high that such a weak print on jobs will occur before the next hiking opportunity on Sept 20th In addition if the S P falls more than 15 from its high the turn in Fed policy from hawkish to dovish is virtually assured From there it will turn to panic as the economy and stock market meltdown
I say meltdown because at 25x reported earnings the S P 500 is the 2nd most expensive in history But this particular overvalued market exists in the context of a weak and slowing economy coupled with a tightening monetary policy that has been in place since the Fed started to reduce the amount of its 85 billion per month worth of bond purchases back in Dec 2013 And most importantly the coming market crash and recession will occur with the balance sheets of the Treasury and Fed already extremely stretched Hence an extrication from this recession will not happen quickly or easily
All of the above makes this the most dangerous market ever This crash and ensuing economic downturn which given history logic and the data should happen soon will alter the Fed s current stance on monetary policy But it will happen too late to preclude a very steep decline in GDP
Therefore if Mr Trump cannot push through his tax cutting agenda rather quickly it may be both Ms Yellen and the Republicans that find themselves moving out of D C in 2018 and move the Donald back to the Apprentice after just one term
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies produces the weekly podcast called The Mid week Reality Check is Host of The Pentonomics Program and Author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse |
MPC | Shell Hits Gas Condensate In Bratwurst 1 Exploration Well | Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa PLC has been successful in finding gas and condensate in Bratwurst 1 exploration well at its Browse Basin offshore Western Australia Drilling of this new discovery under the title AC P64 located 160 kilometers northeast of the Shell owned Prelude was completed on Dec 4 This 78 day campaign was concluded within a year and a half from the time of bidding and 12 months from winning the title award This discovery will provide a future tie back opportunity for Prelude FLNG facility With this finding Shell takes a step forward to achieve its goal of cleaner energy The company also shows how through exploration it is developing a sturdy pipeline of discoveries to support its Western Australian assets wherein LNG is of prime focus Australian Shell has been making lucrative investments in large projects since the inception of its business down under in 1901 Royal Dutch Shell PLC Price Prelude floating liquefied natural gas FLNG facility in Australia will handle production liquefaction storage and transfer of LNG at sea along with processing exporting and condensation of liquefied petroleum gas The facility has a production capacity of 5 3 million tons per annum mtpa of liquids with LNG accounting for 3 6 mtpa or 68 of the total capacity Being a significant project in its portfolio Prelude FLNG is a path breaking facility for the emergence of floating LNG Notably it is also the first and the most versatile among the slew of projects planned by the company The facility will enable Shell to unlock new offshore energy sources and provide LNG around the world In October 2019 management of Shell s QGC business announced that the 500th cargo consignment of LNG left the shores of Curtis Island Queensland from its LNG plant In June the company s first shipment of LNG began its voyage from its Prelude FLNG facility located 295 miles north east of Broome in Western Australia Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemical companies It is involved in all phases of the petroleum industry from exploration to final processing and delivery Zacks Rank Key PicksShell currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked stocks in the space are Phillips 66 NYSE PSX Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC and RGC Resources Inc NASDAQ RGCO each carrying a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can seeThe Hottest Tech Mega Trend of AllLast year it generated 24 billion in global revenues By 2020 it s predicted to blast through the roof to 77 6 billion Famed investor Mark Cuban says it will produce the world s first trillionaires but that should still leave plenty of money for regular investors who make the right trades early |
MPC | MPC Vs INT Which Stock Should Value Investors Buy Now | Investors with an interest in Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing stocks have likely encountered both Marathon Petroleum MPC and World Fuel Services INT But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now Let s take a closer look
Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank favors stocks with strong earnings estimate revision trends and our Style Scores highlight companies with specific traits
Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy while World Fuel Services has a Zacks Rank of 3 Hold right now The Zacks Rank favors stocks that have recently seen positive revisions to their earnings estimates so investors should rest assured that MPC has an improving earnings outlook But this is just one piece of the puzzle for value investors
Value investors also try to analyze a wide range of traditional figures and metrics to help determine whether a company is undervalued at its current share price levels
Our Value category highlights undervalued companies by looking at a variety of key metrics including the popular P E ratio as well as the P S ratio earnings yield cash flow per share and a variety of other fundamentals that have been used by value investors for years
MPC currently has a forward P E ratio of 13 93 while INT has a forward P E of 17 62 We also note that MPC has a PEG ratio of 1 15 This popular figure is similar to the widely used P E ratio but the PEG ratio also considers a company s expected EPS growth rate INT currently has a PEG ratio of 3 52
Another notable valuation metric for MPC is its P B ratio of 0 94 The P B ratio is used to compare a stock s market value with its book value which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities For comparison INT has a P B of 1 54
Based on these metrics and many more MPC holds a Value grade of A while INT has a Value grade of C
MPC is currently sporting an improving earnings outlook which makes it stick out in our Zacks Rank model And based on the above valuation metrics we feel that MPC is likely the superior value option right now |
MPC | Magellan Gauges Shipper Interest For West Texas Pipeline | Magellan Midstream Partners L P NYSE MMP recently commenced the second binding open season to gauge shipping commitments for boosting transportation capacity along the western leg of its refined petroleum products pipeline system in Texas The extended open season is for the shippers willing to carry oil through the to be expanded and the existing pipeline This 140 mile long West Texas pipeline which currently transmits 100 000 barrels per day bpd will be lengthened to a capacity of 175 000 bpd Besides New Mexico this system generally carries gasoline and diesel to customers in Abilene Midland Odessa and El Paso TX This expansion which is scheduled to come online by mid 2020 will likely enable the pipeline get more access to markets across Arizona and Mexico with the help of third party pipelines Based on the response from the supplemental open season Tusla based Magellan is taking into account the addition of another 25 000 bpd of capacity on the West Texas pipeline for a total volume of up to 200 000 bpd This extension can be effective 2021 end Further the firm is building a new refined products terminal in Midland TX and planning to complete the project in mid 2020 Magellan is a publicly traded partnership formed to own operate and acquire a diversified portfolio of energy assets The firm primarily transports stores and distributes refined petroleum products and ammonia Price Performance Zacks RankMagellan Midstream has gained 8 9 in the year to date period outperforming the 6 5 growth of the it belongs to The partnership currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked stocks in the space are CNX Resources Corporation NYSE CNX Marathon Petroleum Corp NYSE MPC and Kosmos Energy Ltd NYSE KOS each carrying a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see 5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was hand picked by a Zacks expert as the 1 favorite stock to gain 100 or more in 2020 Each comes from a different sector and has unique qualities and catalysts that could fuel exceptional growth Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor |
MPC | Here s Why It Is Worth Investing In Marathon MPC Stock Now | A prudent investment decision involves buying wealthy stocks at an apt time while selling those that are prone to risk A share price appreciation and strong fundamentals signal a stock s bullish run Shares of Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC are likely to display an uptrend on the back of its solid third quarter earnings performance and healthy fuel margins As a matter of fact if you still haven t taken advantage of the stock s share price rise it s time you add it to your portfolio What Makes It an Attractive Pick An OutperformerA glance at the company s price trend shows that the stock had an impressive run on the bourse in the past three years Shares of Marathon Petroleum have rallied 20 1 outperforming the 2 3 growth of its Solid Rank VGM ScoreThis leading independent refiner transporter and marketer of petroleum products currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and a of A Our research shows that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B when combined with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy or 2 offer the best investment opportunities Thus the company appears to be a compelling investment proposition at the moment Upbeat Q3 PerformanceMarathon Petroleum recently reported third quarter 2019 earnings per share of 1 63 comprehensively beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 1 30 Strength in the bottom line can be attributed to solid throughput volumes which rose 55 year over year Further the company s income from the Retail segment totaled 442 million skyrocketing 174 5 from the year ago period In addition to a sturdy performance at Marathon Petroleum s former Speedway unit the segment s results were boosted by contributions from the acquired retail assets of Andeavor Northward Estimate RevisionsThe direction of estimate revisions serves as an important pointer when it comes to the stock price movement The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2019 earnings has been revised 12 88 upward over the past 60 days Earnings estimates for 2020 have moved 4 94 north Positive Earnings Surprise HistoryMarathon Petroleum flaunts a stellar surprise history Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters Key DriversMarathon Petroleum s diversified portfolio of refining retail and midstream operations bode well somewhat reducing its exposure to commodity price fluctuations While the company s refining profitability is persistently affected amid lowering crack spreads Marathon Petroleum s midstream arm MPLX LP NYSE MPLX did provide the necessary cushion MPLX s robust portfolio of projects in the Permian Marcellus and STACK shale plays offers significant growth opportunities along with a fee based stable revenue stream which is reflected in the parent company s overall results The company s financial flexibility and a solid balance sheet are real assets Importantly Marathon Petroleum is known for raising dividends and has an active share repurchase program These highlight the company s commitment to return more value to its shareholders Notably the company returned 848 million capital to its investors in the last reported quarter As a show of confidence in its cash flow generating abilities going forward Marathon Petroleum recently announced a 15 hike in its quarterly dividend Notably this Findlay OH based leading independent refiner is working on forming the largest U S listed convenience store operator by separating Speedway from its parent platform to spin off into an independent publicly traded company The transaction contingent upon pending approvals is scheduled to close by the end of 2020 Zacks Rank Other Key PicksSome other top ranked stocks in the space are CNX Resources Corporation NYSE CNX and Kosmos Energy Ltd NYSE KOS each carrying a Zacks Rank of 2 You can see Looking for Stocks with Skyrocketing Upside Zacks has just released a Special Report on the booming investment opportunities of legal marijuana Ignited by new referendums and legislation this industry is expected to blast from an already robust 6 7 billion to 20 2 billion in 2021 Early investors stand to make a killing but you have to be ready to act and know just where to look |
MS | Gold futures continue upward trend | Investing com Gold futures advanced for the second day on Tuesday hitting the highest level since mid December on a weakening U S dollar and worries about a possible Greek default On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1651 55 a troy ounce during late U S trade advancing 1 27 Earlier prices hit a high of USD1667 95 surging 2 05 Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1631 95 a troy ounce Monday s low and technical resistance exists at USD1681 55 the high of December 13th Weakness in the U S dollar worked to lift precious metal prices The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies gave back 0 30 to trade at 81 42 Interestingly gold s correlation with the euro dollar exchange rate is at its most positive in nearly 2 years This means that gold is more likely to move in synch with the euro than at any other time since January 2010 The concern of a default by Greece continued as talks aimed at negotiating the restructuring of the country s debts remained deadlocked amid disagreements over a bond swap with private creditors Without the swap debt stricken Greece is unlikely to secure a second financial bailout raising fears over a possible disorderly Greek default in March when massive bond payments are due Earlier Morgan Stanley stated in a report that it remained bullish on gold The investment bank projected gold prices to average USD1 845 an ounce in 2012 as strong investment demand central bank purchases and less hedging force prices higher Gold prices lifted during the Asian trading session upon government data showing China s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 8 9 in the fourth quarter slowing from the previous quarter s 9 1 rate but slightly better than expectations for an 8 8 increase While the data was better than expected the nation s economy grew at the slowest pace in more than two years and expanded less than 9 for the first time since mid 2009 fuelling speculation that Beijing was likely to ease monetary policy to stimulate growth Elsewhere on the Comex silver for March settlement advanced 1 42 to trade at USD29 94 a troy ounce while March copper futures soared 2 18 to trade at USD3 72 a pound |
MS | Crude oil futures hold gains after U S supply drop | Investing com Crude oil futures held on to gains on Thursday after government data showed U S crude supplies declined unexpectedly last week and after a report showing that U S jobless claims fell to an almost four year low last week On the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at USD101 22 a barrel during U S morning trade gaining 0 42 It earlier rose by as much as 1 5 to trade at a one week high of USD102 23 a barrel Crude prices traded at USD101 20 prior to the release of the Energy Information Administration data The U S EIA said in its weekly report that U S crude oil inventories fell by 3 4 million barrels in the week ended January 13 confounding expectations for a 2 9 million barrel increase U S crude supplies rose by 5 0 million barrels in the preceding week Total U S crude oil inventories stood at 331 2 million barrels as of last week remaining in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3 7 million barrels above expectations for a 2 4 million barrel gain after rising by 3 6 million barrels in the preceding week Crude prices received a lift earlier after a report showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U S last week fell to the lowest level since April 2008 Weekly applications fell by 50 000 to 352 000 the biggest drop in the seasonally adjusted figure in more than six years However gains remained in check after the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index worsened by 3 0 points to 7 3 in January from November s reading of 10 3 Analysts had expected the index to improve by 0 7 points to 11 0 in January Meanwhile oil traders continued to monitor ongoing talks between Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and the country s creditors aimed at restructuring the country s debt would result in a breakthrough Greece needs to secure an agreement on restructuring its debt in order to secure new bailout funds and avert a default when a EUR14 4 billion bond redemption comes due on March 20 Also Thursday auctions of Spanish and French government encountered solid investor demand easing concerns over the ability of indebted euro zone nations to fund themselves following Standard Poor s mass downgrades of euro zone nation s last week Meanwhile oil traders continued to monitor tension between Iran and the West after the country s foreign minister warned its neighbors against delivering additional oil to world markets to compensate for Iranian exports if they are hit by sanctions European Union foreign ministers are scheduled to meet January 23 to decide on proposed sanctions on Iran s oil imports Reports surfaced Wednesday that the EU embargo on Iranian oil was expected take effect on July 1 Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report Wednesday that If tensions escalate into production disruptions prices are likely to surge materially higher with the sustainability of the higher price dependent on the duration and magnitude of production disruption Iran is the world s fourth largest oil producer pumping nearly 5 of the world s oil in 2010 The threat of a major supply disruption from the country has helped support oil prices in recent weeks Elsewhere on the ICE Futures Exchange Brent oil futures for March delivery rose 0 21 to trade at USD110 89 a barrel with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD9 67 a barrel |
MS | Euro stocks climb on bond auctions U S data DAX up 0 97 | Investing com European shares booked 4 straight days of gains Thursday on Spanish and French bond auctions as well as positive U S employment numbers After the close of European trade the EURO STOXX 50 surged 1 86 France s CAC 40 rocketed 1 96 while Germany s DAX advanced 0 97 Meanwhile in the U K the FTSE 100 climbed 0 68 Yields fell on all maturities as Spain auctioned EUR7 97billion of two three and four year notes in its first sale of medium and long term debt since losing its AAA rating last week Spain sold EUR6 6billion of bonds maturing in 2016 2019 and 2022 beating the maximum target of EUR4 5billion Yields on the 2019 and 2022 dropped but borrowing costs increased on the 2016 s The European Central Bank fueled the optimism by stating that it has a whole range of unconventional measures to manage the debt crisis Initial U S jobless benefit claims plummeted 50 000 to 352 000 in the week ending January 14th This crushed the median analyst s forecast of 384 000 Financials led the gains with Commerzbank soaring 14 after stating it will take measures to boost capital or reduce risk weighted assets BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank followed suit rallying 8 9 and 8 4 respectively Switzerland s largest bank UBS AG soared 7 7 as Morgan Stanley named all 3 as its most preferred bank stocks Gambling company William Hill climbed 6 6 after stating it expects revenues to increase 6 In bearish news Astra Zeneca gave back 2 1 after its experimental diabetes drug failed to obtain approval from U S regulators U S stocks were higher mid session with the Dow30 up 0 25 the S P500 climbing 0 54 and the Nasdaq advancing 0 85 Investors are awaiting German producer price numbers and the U K retail sales report along with Australia s import price figures and U S existing home sales on Friday |
MS | Crude oil futures flat despite inventory surprise | Investing com Crude oil futures were flat to lower Thursday despite a surprise U S inventory drop and an improved U S labor market On the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude futures for March settlement traded at USD100 69 a barrel during late U S trade giving back 0 06 It earlier climbed to USD102 23 a barrel adding 1 5 to trade at the highest level since last Thursday Weakness in the U S dollar helped lift crude oil prices The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies gave back 0 36 to trade at 80 39 Dollar weakness generally lifts commodity prices as it increases their appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar priced commodities less expensive for holders of other currencies Crude prices traded at USD101 20 pre inventory data release from the U S Energy Information Administration The U S EIA stated that U S crude inventories dropped by 3 4 million barrels in the week ended January 13th surprising investors who expected a 2 9 million barrel increase U S crude supplies climbed 5 0 million barrels the previous week Crude prices gained support as yields fell on all maturities as Spain auctioned EUR7 97billion of two three and four year notes in its first sale of medium and long term debt since losing its AAA rating last week Spain sold EUR6 6billion of bonds maturing in 2016 2019 and 2022 beating the maximum target of EUR4 5billion Yields on the 2019 and 2022 dropped but borrowing costs increased on the 2016 s The European Central Bank fueled the optimism by stating that it has a whole range of unconventional measures to manage the debt crisis Initial U S jobless benefit claims plummeted 50 000 to 352 000 in the week ending January 14th This crushed the median analyst s forecast of 384 000 increasing hopes that the world s largest economy is on the rebound European Union foreign ministers plan to meet on January 23rd to decide on Iranian sanctions that could include an oil embargo adding tension to the trading day In a related report Wednesday Morgan Stanley stated If Iranian tensions escalate into production disruptions prices are likely to surge materially higher Elsewhere on the ICE Futures Exchange Brent oil futures for March delivery eased higher 0 11 to trade at USD110 81 a barrel up USD10 09 on its U S Counterpart This over USD10 00 spread is near historic highs The two contracts traditionally trade within USD1 00 of each other |
MS | U S stocks open mixed ahead of Fed Apple soars to record high | Investing com U S stock markets were mixed to lower after the open on Wednesday as markets looked forward to the Federal Reserve s rate statement while shares in Apple soared to a record high lifting the NASDAQ higher During early U S trade the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0 65 the S P 500 index slumped 0 45 while the Nasdaq Composite index gained 0 45 The NASDAQ outperformed as shares in consumer electronics giant Apple rallied 6 5 to hit an all time high of USD454 45 per share After markets closed Tuesday Apple said that fiscal first quarter earnings more than doubled largely due to a huge jump in iPhone sales Revenue surged 73 to USD46 3 billion blowing past expectations for revenue of USD38 85 billion The upbeat results prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its price target on the stock to USD600 per share and reiterated its Conviction Buy List rating Elsewhere on the NASDAQ cancer drug maker Illumina surged 38 1 after Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche offered nearly USD5 7 billion for the company It was the third time since 2007 that the Swiss drug maker has made a hostile takeover bid for a U S company Aerospace major Textron saw shares jump 13 2 after reporting stronger than expected fourth quarter revenue and offering an upbeat earnings forecast for the full year On the downside shares in the financial sector performed poorly tracking their European counterparts lower as concerns over the euro zone s sovereign debt crisis lingered Citigroup saw shares decline 1 65 while investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs retreated 2 05 and 1 8 respectively after JP Morgan lowered its rating on the stocks to neutral citing prospects of tougher capital requirements for investment banks In earnings news Corning shares tumbled 9 after reporting that fourth quarter profit fell 53 from a year earlier The company also said it planned to cut capacity in its liquid crystal display glass business as weak demand is leading to significant price declines Graphics chip maker Nvidia saw shares drop 5 2 after cutting its fourth quarter revenue outlook citing a global disk drive shortage due to flooding in Thailand and a slowdown in demand for the company s Tegra 2 processor Across the Atlantic European stock markets were broadly lower as renewed worries over the threat of Greek default dampened investor demand for riskier assets The EURO STOXX 50 tumbled 1 France s CAC 40 fell 0 75 Germany s DAX dropped 0 7 while London s FTSE 100 retreated 0 9 Later Wednesday the Federal Reserve was to announce the federal funds rate and publish its official rate statement In addition the U S was to release industry data on pending home sales Meanwhile the World Economic Forum was beginning its five day annual meeting in Davos Switzerland |
MS | U S stocks mostly lower on weak economic data DOW off 0 16 | Investing com U S stocks closed Tuesday s trading session mostly lower as weak economic data weighed on equities At the close of U S trade the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0 16 the S P 500 fell 0 05 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0 07 Equities slashed earlier gains as reports indicated that consumer confidence and and business activity both declined in the U S casting a bearish aura on the session The morning stock rally was sparked in Europe as leaders meeting in Brussels reached an agreement on a fiscal discipline treaty that includes sanctions for high deficit states and demands members to create laws to limit budget shortfalls In addition the leaders also decided to launch the European Stability Mechanism on July 1st one year ahead of the original plan However Britain and the Czech Republic refrained from agreeing with the treaty In Greek news Prime Minister Lucas Papademos stated that he is strongly committed to reaching a debt deal adding to the bullish sentiment on the day Earlier Portugal borrowing costs spiked to a euro era high however Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coehlo calmed the markets by saying the debt is perfectly sustainable and there is no risk of writedowns on the bonds The unemployment rate hit a two decade low in Germany further fuelling the bullish sentiment on the session The S P 500 is up 4 3 for the month and out of 192 companies in the index reporting results 129 posted per share earnings that beat estimates solidifying the bullish stock case despite downbeat economic data Delivery service UPS dropped 0 9 after slightly missing sales estimates Radio Shack plunged 30 upon suspending a stock buy back program and reporting weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings Financial shares gained the most on the session with Goldman Sachs advancing 1 4 and Morgan Stanley climbing 2 3 Drug maker Eli Lily added 1 4 on higher sales of depression and diabetes medicines Toy company Mattel soared 5 1 after beating analysts fourth quarter profit estimates At the close of European trade the EURO STOXX 50 advanced 0 50 France s CAC 40 gained 1 01 while Germany s DAX surged 0 22 Meanwhile in the U K the FTSE 100 climbed 0 19 |
JPM | Vantiv near deal for Worldpay Sky News | The U K based payment services company soared nearly 30 on July 4 on reports of buyout interest from Vantiv NYSE VNTV and JPMorgan NYSE JPM According to Sky News a sale to Vantiv could be announced as soon as today Vantiv shares are halted from trade Worldpay OTCPK WPYGY OTCPK WDDYF is higher by another 4 in London action Square NYSE SQ is seeing some premarket action on the news It s currently higher by 0 5 Now read |
JPM | U S card firm Vantiv goes global with 10 billion Worldpay buy | By Noor Zainab Hussain Reuters U S credit card processor Vantiv agreed to buy Britain s Worldpay for 7 7 billion pounds 10 billion on Wednesday in a move expected to trigger further deals Payments companies have become targets for credit card companies and banks seeking to capitalize on a switch from cash transactions to paying by smartphone or other mobile device with Danish payment services firm Nets A S CO NETS revealing it had been approached by potential buyers Shares in Worldpay L WPG rose by nearly 28 percent on Tuesday when Britain s largest payments firm said it had received approaches from both Vantiv N VNTV and JPMorgan N JPM which is Worldpay s corporate broker The U S bank said that while it had shown a preliminary interest it does not plan to make a rival bid Given the current price strategic rationale for Vantiv and lack of significant EPS earnings per share accretion we believe it is unlikely other suitors will emerge at this point analysts at Cowen said following the announcement of the deal Under the terms revealed on Wednesday Vantiv will pay 55 pence in cash 0 0672 of a new Vantiv share and a 5 pence cash dividend per Worldpay share totaling 385 pence per share Although this is an 18 9 percent premium to Worldpay s closing share price on Monday it is below the 409 5 pence hit on Wednesday before the announcement which comes only 20 months after Worldpay listed in London with a 4 8 billion pound price tag Worldpay s stock was down 9 3 percent at 370 pence at 1425 GMT while Vantiv which has a market capitalization of 12 3 billion saw its shares fall 3 9 percent to 60 51 Shareholders in the British firm will own about 41 percent of the new company which will be run by Vantiv Chief Charles Drucker and Worldpay CEO Philip Jansen Set up in 1989 London based Worldpay was spun out of Royal Bank of Scotland L RBS to private equity firms Bain Capital and Advent International in 2010 The firm employs 4 500 people and says it processes around 31 million mobile online and in store transactions every day While banks have been trying to develop and buy more sophisticated technology companies like PayPal O PYPL and Worldpay have gained a large market share as consumers have adopted online shopping and cashless transactions GLOBAL APPEAL Analysts say the most likely target is Worldpay s e commerce business especially outside the United States where Vantiv is largely focused Worldpay says it supports 400 000 merchants in 126 currencies across 146 countries While Vantiv owns one of the most enviable U S acquiring businesses over 30 percent of revenue from integrated channels it has no exposure outside of North America Cowen analysts said Worldpay s e commerce payments revenue which accounts for more than a third of its total rose by 21 7 percent to 386 6 million pounds in 2016 driven by new business wins and strength in its global retail and digital content units Analysts at Berenberg said before the announcement that Vantiv as well as JP Morgan is suffering from excessive exposure to the offline U S market The acquisition of Worldpay would give them international e commerce capabilities that they would be able to cross sell to their U S client base
Increased exposure to the United States would also help Worldpay which reported a lower than expected rise in 2016 revenue hurt by weakness in its American business which accounts for more than a quarter of its revenue Worldpay would gain scale in the U S market a geography where frankly the company has floundered relative to rivals Cowen analysts said 1 0 7740 pounds |
JPM | JPMorgan CEO meets Irish prime minister on post Brexit growth | DUBLIN Reuters JPMorgan Chase Co NYSE JPM Chief Executive Jamie Dimon met Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in Dublin on Thursday to discuss expansion in the Irish capital two months after the U S investment bank bought an office building in the city with room for 1 000 staff The bank in May said it plans to hire a significant number of people in Dublin in its expanding custody and funds services businesses over the next three years as it focuses its European Union operations in Dublin Frankfurt and Luxembourg after Brexit leaves its largest European office in London outside of the bloc I met with Prime Minister Varadkar today to discuss our plans to grow J P Morgan s business over the next several years Dimon said in a statement Ireland is at the forefront of training its workforce to keep up with the latest developments in technology and business innovation and the country has a global open environment that will keep it economically competitive he added A spokesman for Varadkar who was elected Ireland s youngest ever Taoiseach last month confirmed the meeting took place but declined to comment further JPMorgan currently employs 450 people in Ireland in its Custody Fund Services Investment Banking Payments and Treasury Services business The bank in May announced a deal to acquire a 130 000 square foot 12 000 square meter building at the Capital Dock development in Dublin s docklands which could house around 1 000 staff Ireland has engaged on a major lobbying campaign during the past year to try to convince companies with large bases in the United Kingdom to consider moving some of their staff to Ireland to maintain access to the European Union s single market
The head of Frankfurt s campaign to promote the city to banks since Britain voted to leave the EU told Reuters in May he expected the five largest U S investment banks to move staff to more than one EU location with around 1 000 going to Frankfurt and possibly more to Dublin |
C | China online lending crackdown shutters Guangdong P2P site | BEIJING Reuters A large Chinese online lending platform accused of illegal operations has suspended operations one of hundreds that have been shut this year by the government as China cleans up a sector ridden with stories of Ponzi schemes Police in Huizhou Guangdong province said on Wednesday night that it had detained 13 executives from Guangdong Huirong Investment Co s peer to peer lending platform esudai The detainees included its legal representative and chairman Jian Huixing China s government approved a plan following a mid April meeting to clean up the country s online financial sector according to people with direct knowledge of the matter including rules to limit the activities of P2P lending firms The plan outlines stricter rules for peer to peer P2P platforms where lending quadrupled last year to 440 billion yuan 67 billion according to Citigroup NYSE C research forbidding them from holding clients capital in house Esudai which roughly translates to quick loans is accused by the local police of illegally collecting deposits while executives are accused of taking hundreds of millions of yuan in investor money for their own use Esudai has raised over 7 billion yuan from 330 000 investors since it was founded in 2010 according to its website Huizhou government officials visited Esudai s offices on May 20 for inspections the company said on its website adding that it is cooperating in the investigation and has operated legally and transparently for six years It said customer deposits and withdrawals have been suspended The Esudai website was accessible on Thursday morning but Reuters was unable to reach the company by phone A top executive at a Shanghai investment firm Zhongjin Capital Management or Wealthroll last week confessed on state television to operating a Ponzi scheme Police accused Zhongjin last month of illegal fundraising a loosely defined term applied to irregular behavior in China s energetic but opaque shadow banking sector Some people in the industry say the heightened scrutiny will eventually weed out bad players giving the stronger companies opportunity for growth Good platforms welcome government regulation for a simple reason without good rules bad players push out good players Wang Zhijian CEO of FuYin a Shanghai based P2P platform said at a financial forum last week adding a lack of regulation forced all platforms into unfair competition A customer of Dianrong com one of China s most high profile P2P players that has raised over 200 million from investors including Standard chartered Private Equity and Tiger Global said the recent crackdown and scandals do not deter him from putting money into the site
The government does not want to kill the sector he said |
JPM | USD JPY Poised For Correction Below 80 | Dec 3 Bloomberg Bets the Japanese yen will fall have climbed to record levels that have historically been followed by rallies in the currency according to JP Morgan Chase Co Wagers against the yen have increased ahead of elections on Dec 16 for Japan s lower house of parliament which determines who will be prime minister The opposition Liberal Democratic Party whose leader Shinzo Abe has repeatedly called for measures to weaken the yen to help exporters and end deflation is poised to oust the ruling government according to most opinion polls Shorts And DeclinesNet shorts on the yen against the dollar rose to 79 466 on Nov 27 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange the most since July 2007 from 51 389 a week earlier Also tracked are the dollar s declines against the yen in the six months after each of the three prior occasions since 2009 when shorts exceeded 50 000 The currency slid to 82 84 per dollar on Nov 22 the weakest since April 4 With yen shorts nearing the peak of recent years it seems poised for a correction back below 80 per dollar by year end said Tohru Sasaki head of Japan rates and currency research in Tokyo at JP Morgan Abe s comments have heightened easing expectations and stoked yen selling but I don t see how he can do anything to fuel these moves further at this point The yen fell against 15 of its 16 major counterparts last month depreciating 3 3 versus the dollar It was at 82 37 per dollar as of 11 a m in Tokyo from 82 48 on Nov 30 Abe on Nov 30 called for all necessary measures to reach a 2 inflation target He has said the Bank of Japan s target should be raised to as high as 3 from the current 1 The nation s cabinet approved last week fiscal stimulus worth 880 billion yen 10 7 billion using budget reserves |
MPC | Is Marathon Petroleum MPC A Great Value Stock Right Now | While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies With this in mind we are always looking at value growth and momentum trends to discover great companies
Of these value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment Value investors use a variety of methods including tried and true valuation metrics to find these stocks
On top of the Zacks Rank investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits For example value investors will want to focus on the Value category Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and A grades for Value will be some of the highest quality value stocks on the market today
One stock to keep an eye on is Marathon Petroleum MPC MPC is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy as well as an A grade for Value The stock is trading with a P E ratio of 8 11 which compares to its industry s average of 9 74 MPC s Forward P E has been as high as 11 61 and as low as 6 88 with a median of 8 86 all within the past year
Investors should also note that MPC holds a PEG ratio of 0 81 This popular metric is similar to the widely known P E ratio with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company s expected earnings growth rate MPC s industry has an average PEG of 0 96 right now Over the past 52 weeks MPC s PEG has been as high as 1 13 and as low as 0 48 with a median of 0 87
We should also highlight that MPC has a P B ratio of 0 91 The P B is a method of comparing a stock s market value to its book value which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities MPC s current P B looks attractive when compared to its industry s average P B of 1 20 Over the past 12 months MPC s P B has been as high as 1 47 and as low as 0 69 with a median of 0 94
Value investors also use the P S ratio The P S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement This means it could be a truer performance indicator MPC has a P S ratio of 0 3 This compares to its industry s average P S of 0 36
Finally investors will want to recognize that MPC has a P CF ratio of 5 80 This figure highlights a company s operating cash flow and can be used to find firms that are undervalued when considering their impressive cash outlook This stock s P CF looks attractive against its industry s average P CF of 6 76 Over the past 52 weeks MPC s P CF has been as high as 8 86 and as low as 4 08 with a median of 6 23
These figures are just a handful of the metrics value investors tend to look at but they help show that Marathon Petroleum is likely being undervalued right now Considering this as well as the strength of its earnings outlook MPC feels like a great value stock at the moment |
MPC | How Marathon Petroleum MPC Stock Stands Out In A Strong Industry | One stock that might be an intriguing choice for investors right now is Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC This is because this security in the Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing space is seeing solid earnings estimate revision activity and is in great company from a Zacks Industry Rank perspective This is important because often times a rising tide will lift all boats in an industry as there can be broad trends taking place in a segment that are boosting securities across the board This is arguably taking place in the Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing space as it currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 29 out of more than 250 industries suggesting it is well positioned from this perspective especially when compared to other segments out there Meanwhile Marathon Petroleumis actually looking pretty good on its own too The firm has seen solid earnings estimate revision activity over the past month suggesting analysts are becoming a bit more bullish on the firm s prospects in both the short and long term Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and Consensus In fact over the past month current quarter estimates have risen from 88 cents per share to 1 06 per share while current year estimates have risen from 4 19 per share to 4 40 per share This has helped MPC to earn a Zacks Rank 2 Buy further underscoring the company s solid position You can see the complete list of today s Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here So if you are looking for a decent pick in a strong industry consider Marathon Petroleum Not only is its industry currently in the top third but it is seeing solid estimate revisions as of late suggesting it could be a very interesting choice for investors seeking a name in this great industry segment 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys They deem these tickers Most Likely for Early Price Pops Since 1988 the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of 24 6 per year So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention |
MS | Gold futures jump to 1 week high Fed minutes eyed | Investing com Gold futures added to strong gains in the first trading session of 2012 on Tuesday as a broadly weaker U S dollar underlined prices ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve s December policy meeting On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1 593 15 a troy ounce during early U S morning trade rallying 1 41 It earlier rose by as much as 1 77 to trade at USD1 598 75 a troy ounce the highest since December 27 Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1 550 15 a troy ounce Friday s low and short term resistance at USD1 605 85 the high of December 27 Comex trading remained closed on Monday due to the New Year s holiday Gold futures started off the new year on a positive foot as the euro rose nearly 1 against the U S dollar pulling further away from last week s 15 month trough Gold s correlation with the euro dollar exchange rate is at its most positive in nearly two years meaning gold prices are more likely to move in synch with the euro than at any other time since January 2010 Prices found further support amid reports Iran had produced its first nuclear fuel rod boosting the safe haven appeal of the precious metal Nuclear fuel rods contain pellets of enriched uranium that provide fuel for nuclear power plants The report came after the Islamic Republic said it had test fired two long range missiles over the weekend as part of an ongoing naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz Meanwhile the Fed was to publish the minutes of its December policy meeting later in the day Gold traders will pay close attention for any hints the central bank could introduce further stimulus measures in the near term to boost U S economic growth Wall Street investment firm Merrill Lynch said earlier that it expects gold prices to average USD1 850 an ounce in 2012 representing a 17 6 increase over the 2011 spot price average Morgan Stanley offered a similar outlook In a report published late Monday the bank projected gold to average USD2 200 an ounce in 2012 citing low interest rates in the U S and the potential for more economic stimulus in developed economies Elsewhere on the Comex silver for March delivery surged 2 65 to trade at USD28 72 a troy ounce while copper for March delivery jumped 1 85 to trade at USD3 497 a pound |
MS | Euro stocks mixed on U S job data chronic euro woes DAX down 0 71 | Investing com European stocks closed mixed Friday as strong U S job data offset chronic euro zone debt worries After the close of European trade the EURO STOXX 50 gave back 0 76 France s CAC 40 fell 0 32 while Germany s DAX 30 closed lower by 0 71 Meanwhile in the U K the FTSE 100 eased higher by 0 36 The bearish sentiment started yesterday when Italy s UniCredit stated it will sell shares at EUR1 943 to raise EUR7 5 billion This is at a 43 discount to yesterday s closing price excluding the rights value sending shares in the bank to a 19 year low UniCredit s CEO Fredrico Ghizzoni increased the bearish sentiment when he stated the debt crisis is worsening and he expects other banks to follow UniCredit s lead In the U S employers added 200 000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 8 5 suggesting that the world s largest economy is in a growth phase Euro area consumer confidence plummeted to more then a 2 year low and unemployment remained at a 13 year high in the beleaguered region weighing on stocks Carmakers led the decline with BMW falling 1 4 and Daimler giving back 1 4 on the negative consumer data Emmanuel Soupre of Neuflize Private Assets explained the situation to Bloomberg It s best to remain cautious The U S can t exonerate the rest of the world The problems in Europe are chronic Meanwhile in bullish news Mitchell Butlers climbed 7 4 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the chain to overweight from equal weight U S stocks traded mixed across the board in midday trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0 33 the S P 500 giving back 0 29 and the Nasdaq 100 advancing 0 12 Investors are awaiting the German and France meeting start on Monday for signs of hope out of the crisis |
MS | Crude oil futures ease up on Iran fears EU debt woes in focus | Investing com Crude oil futures were modestly higher on Monday as ongoing concerns over a disruption to supplies from Iran underlined prices as markets looked forward to a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy later in the day On the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at USD101 81 a barrel during European morning trade adding 0 25 It earlier rose by as much as 0 4 to trade at a session high USD102 14 a barrel Oil traders continued to monitor tensions between Iran and the U S after Iran s state run Fars news agency reported Sunday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will hold large scale exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf next month The Strait of Hormuz located between Iran and Oman is one of the most important oil shipping channels in the world handling about 33 of all ocean borne traded oil according to the U S Energy Information Administration The International Energy Agency said Friday that it could release up to 14 million barrels per day of government owned oil stored in the U S Europe Japan and other importers a rate that could be kept up for a month Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said that such a release is likely to limit the impact of any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz If the impact is limited to 10 million barrels per day for three weeks or 210 million barrels this loss could be easily replaced by an SPR strategic petroleum reserves crude release until the Strait is reopened the bank said in a report Meanwhile markets were looking forward to a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy later Monday in order to discuss proposals to increase fiscal coordination in the single currency bloc Crude s gains were limited as sentiment remained on the back foot amid concerns over rising borrowing costs in the euro zone as markets looked ahead to government debt auctions by Spain and Italy later in the week Euro zone developments have dominated trading in the oil market for the last several months amid worries that the sovereign debt crisis could trigger a broader economic slowdown that would curb demand for oil Elsewhere on the ICE Futures Exchange Brent oil futures for February delivery rose 0 43 to trade at USD113 55 a barrel with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD11 74 a barrel |
MS | Crude oil fluctuates with EU concerns Iran fears in focus | Investing com Crude oil futures fluctuated between gains and losses in choppy trade on Monday as traders continued to monitor tensions between Iran and the U S as well as developments surrounding the euro zone s ongoing debt crisis On the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at USD101 72 a barrel during early U S morning trade easing up 0 15 The February contract traded in a range between USD102 14 a barrel the daily high and USD100 86 the session s low Concerns over a disruption to Iranian oil supplies lingered after Iran s state run Fars news agency reported Sunday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will hold another large scale exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf next month U S Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said late Sunday that Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz for a period of time and that the U S would take action to reopen it Oil spent recent sessions spiking on fears that Iran may make good on threats to cut off access to the Strait of Hormuz a narrow passageway that connects the oil rich Persian Gulf nations with the rest of the world French lender Societe Generale said in a report earlier that prices could surge to as high as USD200 a barrel for a limited time period in the case Iran completely shuts down the key passageway U K based Barclays offered a similar forecast saying that Escalation of the situation involving Iran is likely to be the single largest source of upside risk to oil prices in the short term The bank added that The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz still remains the ultimate fear in the oil market Meanwhile the International Energy Agency said Friday that it could release up to 14 million barrels per day of government owned oil stored in the U S Europe Japan and other importers a rate that could be kept up for a month Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said that such a release is likely to limit the impact of any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz If the impact is limited to 10 million barrels per day for three weeks or 210 million barrels this loss could be easily replaced by an SPR strategic petroleum reserves crude release until the Strait is reopened the bank said in a report Also Monday German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was optimistic that the European Union will be able to sign off its fiscal pact by the end of January Her comments came after meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Berlin earlier Elsewhere on the ICE Futures Exchange Brent oil futures for February delivery shed 0 33 to trade at USD112 69 a barrel with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD10 97 a barrel |
MS | Soybean futures slump on Argentina rain USDA report eyed | Investing com Soybean futures declined on Wednesday as prospects of near term rainfall in drought stricken areas in Argentina prompted investors to readjust positions ahead of Thursday s key monthly report on U S and global soybean supplies On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybeans futures for March delivery traded at USD12 1838 a bushel during European morning trade dropping 1 07 It earlier fell by as much as 1 15 to trade at a two day low of USD12 1562 a bushel Soybean prices have rallied nearly 10 since mid December as dry and hot weather conditions damaged crops in Argentina and Brazil the world s second and third largest soy exporters Prices came under pressure after agricultural meteorologists said that they expected rainfall across major soybean growing areas in the Pampas region in Argentina this week however concerns remained that the nation s soy crops have already suffered irreversible damage The heat of the Southern Hemisphere s summer has been compounded by La Nina a phenomenon in which tropical waters in the Pacific Ocean turn unusually cold The La Nina weather pattern typically brings heavier rainfall in Asia and drier weather in South America However industry weather group Telvent DTN said Tuesday that the ongoing La Nina weather event had potentially topped out after peaking in December Australia s Bureau of Meteorology offered a similar outlook on Monday saying that the ongoing La Nina weather event was at or nearing its peak A diminishing La Nina may gradually allow rainfall to return to normal replenishing soil moisture and aiding crop development Traders have been focusing on weather conditions and crop prospects in Southern Hemisphere countries in recent weeks as most Northern Hemisphere grain crops have been harvested by now Meanwhile markets were looking forward to Thursday s closely watched U S Department of Agriculture s World Supply and Demand Report for revised forecasts of South American crop production Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report Tuesday that We expect downward revisions to soybean production estimates in Brazil and Argentina of up to 2 million tons each owing to developing drought conditions However the report added that the USDA may wait until later in the growing season to make these cuts Elsewhere on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange wheat for March delivery declined 0 45 to trade at USD6 3638 a bushel while corn for March delivery slipped 0 4 to trade at USD6 4838 a bushel |
MS | U S grain futures advance ahead USDA supply report | Investing com U S grain futures were higher on Thursday as a broadly weaker U S dollar supported prices ahead of the release of a key monthly U S government report on U S and global grain supplies Agricultural commodities received a lift as risk sentiment improved after closely watched auctions of Spanish and Italian government debt met with solid investor demand and lower yields easing fears over the fiscal health of the region s third and fourth largest economies The U S dollar pulled back from a 16 month high against the euro following the auctions while the dollar index declined 0 3 to trade at 81 33 A weaker dollar boosts the appeal of U S crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment Meanwhile traders readjusted positions ahead of the U S Department of Agriculture s closely watched World Supply and Demand Report due later in the day USDA January crop reports have historically triggered sharp price moves in futures On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange corn futures for March delivery traded at a three day high of USD6 5763 a bushel gaining 0 92 The USDA report was expected to lower its forecast for U S corn stocks to a fresh 16 year low and downgrade crops in Argentina and Brazil as hot and dry weather conditions in recent weeks damaged crops in those countries Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade soybeans for March delivery rose 0 48 to trade at USD12 0913 a bushel Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report that it expected downward revisions to soybean production estimates in Brazil and Argentina of up to 2 million tons each owing to developing drought conditions Soybean prices have remained well supported in recent weeks as dry and hot weather conditions damaged crops in Argentina and Brazil the world s second and third largest soy exporters South America is major grain exporter and competes with the U S for business on the global market A smaller crop outlook there would likely mean greater demand for U S supplies Meanwhile wheat for March delivery jumped 0 8 to trade at a one week high of USD6 4638 a bushel Wheat prices were expected to remain vulnerable as the government report was forecast to show an increase in U S winter wheat plantings to the largest in three years Corn is the biggest U S crop valued at USD66 7 billion in 2010 followed by soybeans at USD38 9 billion government figures show Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion behind hay |
MS | Grain futures Weekly outlook January 16 20 | Investing com U S grain futures ended the week sharply lower on Friday extending steep losses from the previous session after the U S Department of Agriculture unexpectedly raised estimates on corn wheat and soy stockpiles easing fears over supply shortages Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report Friday that Markets once again proved their inability to predict the USDA s moves with consensus directionally wrong on many estimates On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange corn futures for March delivery traded at USD5 9938 a bushel by close of trade on Friday losing 6 76 over the week Earlier in the day prices fell to USD5 9800 a bushel the lowest since December 20 Corn prices plunged nearly 8 in the two sessions ended Friday after the USDA unexpectedly raised its global supply estimate of the grain for the 2011 12 marketing season that runs from September to August In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published Thursday the USDA said that it now expected global corn inventories to rise to 128 14 million metric tons compared to a previous estimate of 127 19 million metric tons The upbeat forecast sparked a sell off in corn futures as analysts had expected the USDA to cut this year s projection to 123 23 million tons The upward revision reflected larger harvests in the U S Russia Ukraine and the European Union which more than offset losses in Argentina U S corn inventories were forecast to total 846 million bushels before this year s harvest 12 above expectations Argentina s corn production was projected at 26 metric million tons 10 less than last month s forecast Global corn production was estimated to hit an all time high of 868 06 million up from a previous forecast of 867 5 million tons Meanwhile soybeans for March delivery retreated 3 15 on the week to settle at USD11 5762 a bushel by close of trade Friday On Thursday prices fell to a three week low after the USDA lifted its outlook on U S soybean stockpiles to 275 million bushels 20 more than last month s forecast as domestic demand and U S exports slowed U S soybean consumption in the three months through November fell to 905 million bushels approximately 25 lower than a year earlier Argentina s soybean output was expected to total 50 5 million tons 2 9 below the USDA s December projection however the downgrade was not considered significant enough to boost demand for U S supplies Global soy stockpiles were expected to total 53 43 million metric tons down a less than expected 1 7 from a December estimate Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade wheat for March delivery fell 3 95 over the week to settle at USD6 0100 a bushel on Friday hovering just above the previous day s three week low Wheat prices plunged nearly 6 on Thursday after the USDA said that global wheat supplies were forecast to rise to 210 02 million tons the most since the 2000 01 season as countries from Australia to Russia raised output In the U S farmers planted 41 94 million acres of winter wheat from September to November more than analysts expected and 3 2 higher than last year Corn is the biggest U S crop valued at USD66 7 billion in 2010 followed by soybeans at USD38 9 billion government figures show Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion behind hay Agricultural commodities came under further pressure Friday as the U S dollar rallied to a 16 month high against the euro while the dollar index settled at 81 72 the highest since September 2010 A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of U S crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities less attractive as an alternative investment The greenback s gains came as appetite for riskier assets was weighed after ratings agency Standard and Poor s downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of nine euro zone countries including FranceIn the week ahead grain traders will continue to monitor South America s corn and soybean crop and how La Nina weather patterns will affect yields U S winter wheat crop conditions will also be in focus Floor trading on the Chicago Board of Trade will remain closed Monday January 16 for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday |
MS | Euro stocks higher on French auction DAX up 1 25 | Investing com European shares closed higher Monday as a French debt auction lowered borrowing cost despite a Standard Poor s credit rating cut After the close of European trade the EURO STOXX gained 1 01 France s CAC 40 climbed 0 89 while Germany s DAX closed up 1 25 Meanwhile in the U K the FTSE 100 added 0 37 Standard Poor s downgraded France to AA from AAA with a negative outlook on Friday The rating agency also slashed Cyprus Portugal Italy and Spain two levels Long term credit ratings were also lowered on Austria Malta Slovakia and Slovenia However Germany Ireland Finland Belgium Estonia Netherlands and Luxembourg had their rating affirmed by S P The debt market shrugged off the French downgrade at the sale of 51 week treasury bills French borrowing costs dropped as the country sold eur1 895 billion of one year notes at a yield of 0 406 down from 0 454 on January 9th Witold Bahrke of PFA Pension A S explained to Bloomberg Rating downgrades are always a bit of old news and everybody already anticipated the move from S P but a positive is that President Sarkozy will have less leverage against Chancellor Merkel who s getting more room to push her agenda We have seen a series of indicators showing macro economic conditions have improved Greek officials will reconvene with creditors on January 18th after the talks abruptly ceased last week increasing default fears Carmakers soared on Goldman Sachs reiterating its attractive view on the industry Fiat added 7 Pirelli advanced 3 9 while Daimler was upgraded to conviction buy by Goldman Sachs sending shares higher by 3 9 The recent cruise ship accident in the Tyrrhenian Sea sent shares of Carnival sinking 17 and Morgan Stanley lowered its outlook on the company to equal weight In bearish news Lundin Petroleum dropped 14 after the company stated it will likely reduce its estimates for the resources at the Avaldsnes discovery U S stocks were closed Monday due to the Martin Luther King holiday Investors are awaiting the German ZEW sentiment index and euro zone consumer price inflation figures on Tuesday |
MS | Copper rallies to 4 month high on China GDP data | Investing com Copper futures rallied to the highest level since mid September on Tuesday as stronger than expected Chinese economic data eased fears over a hard landing in the world s largest copper consumer On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3 753 a pound during European morning trade surging 3 19 It earlier rallied by as much as 3 35 to trade at USD3 758 a pound the highest since September 21 Official data released earlier showed that China s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 8 9 in the fourth quarter slowing from the previous quarter s 9 1 rate but slightly better than expectations for an 8 8 increase While the data was better than expected the nation s economy grew at the slowest pace in more than two years and expanded less than 9 for the first time since mid 2009 fuelling speculation that Beijing was likely to ease monetary policy to stimulate growth China is the world s largest copper consumer accounting for almost 40 of world consumption last year Weakness in the U S dollar also contributed to gains as it makes the dollar priced commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies was down 0 6 to trade at 81 16 Markets largely shrugged off Standard Poor s decision to downgrade the triple A rating of the euro zone s bailout fund the European Financial Stability Facility by one notch late Monday The threat of a default by Greece continued as talks aimed at negotiating a restructuring of the country s debts remained deadlocked amid disagreements over a bond swap with private creditors Meanwhile Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report Monday that it remained bullish on copper citing a global supply deficit According to the bank there would be a refined copper deficit of 300 000 tons in 2012 the third straight annual shortfall The bullish outlook comes after Goldman Sachs said copper provided the best value opportunity relative to our view of fundamentals in 2012 Elsewhere on the Comex gold for February delivery rallied 2 17 to trade at USD1 665 95 a troy ounce while silver for March delivery jumped 3 35 to trade at USD30 51 a troy ounce |
JPM | European stocks lower after North Korean missle test DAX off 0 2 | Investing com European equities moved lower on Tuesday as investors mulled North Korea s claim that it had become a nuclear state while market players would trade without the influence of Wall Street as the New York Stock Exchange remains closed for the Independence Day holiday
Nearing midday trade in Europe the benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0 39 France s CAC 40 fell 0 45 while Germany s DAX 30 traded down 0 36
North Korea said on Tuesday it successfully test launched an intercontinental ballistic missile ICBM which flew a trajectory that an expert said could allow a weapon to hit the U S state of Alaska
The country run by leader Kim Jong Un who ordered the launch released a statement saying that it is now a proud nuclear state that can target anywhere in the world
The statement added that we can fundamentally end the U S empty threat of nuclear war and offer reliable protection of the peace and stability in the region
In a relatively light day for macro data the number of unemployed in Spain fell less than expected while construction activity in the U K slowed slightly more than forecast
In the euro zone the producer price index declined more than expected in May
On the business front M A supported investor enthusiasm
Worldpay Group LON WPG jumped 19 to the top of the Stoxx 600 as the British payment processor said that had received preliminary approaches from Vantiv Inc and JPMorgan Chase NYSE JPM in relation to the potential acquisition
Shares in STADA DE STAGn also jumped 2 5 on reports that the German generic drug maker may receive an improved takeover offer from Bain Capital and Cinven after an earlier offer of 5 3 billion 6 billion fell through in June
On the downside EDF PA EDF led decliners on the Stoxx 600 falling 4 as the French energy firm admitted that its Hinkley Point project in the U K was 1 5 billion 1 9 billion over budget and a year behind schedule
Meanwhile oil prices were lower on Tuesday as market players took profit after eight straight days of gains its longest winning streak since February 2012
European energy stocks traded mixed as French oil and gas major Total SA PA TOTF lost 0 29 Italy s ENI MI ENI was unchanged but Norwegian rival Statoil OL STL traded up 0 36
Financial stocks were also mixed as French lenders BNP Paribas PA BNPP dropped 0 18 but Societe Generale PA SOGN rose 0 53 while Germany s Deutsche Bank DE DBKGn gained 0 40 and Commerzbank DE CBKG traded down 0 14
Among peripheral lenders Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo MI ISP and rival Unicredit MI CRDI rose 0 14 and 1 12 respectively while Spanish banks BBVA MC BBVA and Banco Santander MC SAN fell 0 24 and 0 55 respectively
In London the commodity heavy FTSE 100 lost 0 17
Shares in Glencore LON GLEN fell 0 63 Anglo American LON AAL lost 0 80 BHP Billiton LON BLT slipped 0 12 and Rio Tinto LON RIO traded down 0 90
Energy stocks showed mixed signs as BP LON BP gave up 0 44 but rival Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa advanced 0 22
Financial stocks saw mixed trade with shares in HSBC Holdings LON HSBA down 0 69 and Royal Bank of Scotland LON RBS up 0 39 while Lloyds Banking LON LLOY gained 0 60 but Barclays LON BARC slipped 0 05
In the U S stock futures tracked higher though Wall Street won t reopen its doors until Wednesday The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged forward 0 06 S P 500 futures gained 0 18 while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0 20 |
JPM | Worldpay M A in focus as European shares consolidate Italy banks up | By Helen Reid and Danilo Masoni LONDON Reuters A spate of dealmaking news swept European stocks on Tuesday with Worldpay L WPG soaring after bid approaches helping mitigate a broad based pull back from the previous session s strong gains The pan European STOXX 600 STOXX fell 0 3 percent in line with a dip in euro zone stocks STOXXE and Britain s FTSE FTSE index On Monday European shares had their strongest day since April 24 when Emmanuel Macron won the first round of France s presidential election The closure of the U S market for the July 4 national holiday also meant volumes were lower than usual Today is a consolidation day after gains yesterday as we don t have a U S market said Angelo Meda head of equities at Banor Capital But dealmaking was back with a vengeance as a key driver of individual share moves Payments company Worldpay shares soared 27 7 percent to a record high after it received rival takeover approaches from credit card tech firm Vantiv N VNTV and JPMorgan N JPM This came after Danish rival Nets CO NETS said on Monday it had received offers Nets and another German rival Wirecard DE WDIG rose more than 4 percent This is one of the most intriguing sub sectors in the financials space There are a lot of companies still and we are probably going to have only one or two big leaders in the payments space said Meda EDP LS EDP was a top gainer up 1 6 percent after Spain s Gas Natural MC GAS was re ported to have approached the Portuguese utility for a 40 billion merger which would create Europe s fourth biggest utility by market capitalization Gas Natural shares fell 0 6 percent EDP denied negotiations were taking place Shares in French rival EDF PA EDF also dropped 4 percent after HSBC downgraded the stock to reduce Clariant S CLN shares gained 3 percent after two activist investors upped their stake in the Swiss chemicals firm in opposition to a planned merger with U S firm Huntsman N HUN Baader Helvea analysts said the move could make a counterbid more likely And the prospect of suitors Bain and Cinven getting regulatory approval for a renewed offer for Stada DE STAGn sent the generic drugmaker s shares up 2 2 percent Italian stocks outperformed as banks FTIT8300 rallied more than 1 percent to a 15 month high after the country s ninth biggest lender Carige MI CRGI approved a 500 million euros cash call to beef up its balance sheet This was the last piece of the puzzle which we needed to fix in order to have a recovery in credit and profitability in banks It s not yet in the prices because the market still wants to see non performing loans problems being solved said Meda
A further boost to the sector came from news that the European Commission gave its blessing to a state bailout of Monte dei Paschi di Siena MI BMPS paving the way for a deep restructure of the troubled lender |
JPM | Worldpay to back takeover from U S credit card tech firm Vantiv Sky News | Reuters Worldpay Group Plc L WPG Britain s largest payment processor is close to recommending a takeover offer from U S credit card technology firm Vantiv Inc N VNTV Sky News reported citing sources
Worldpay said on Tuesday that it had received rival bid approaches from Vantiv and JPMorgan Chase Bank N JPM sending its shares to a record high
Worldpay declined to comment when contacted by Reuters Vantiv and JPMorgan did not immediately respond to emails and calls seeking comments outside of regular business hours in the United States
Worldpay would announce an 8 5 billion pounds 10 97 billion deal with Vantiv later on Wednesday Sky News reported
JPMorgan had revealed a bid price to Worldpay the media report also said
Worldpay s stock which rose 27 7 percent on Tuesday was up 4 8 percent at 428 pence at 1000 GMT on Wednesday giving the firm a market valuation of 8 6 billion pounds according to Thomson Reuters calculation |
JPM | Outlook for UK economy clouds over in second half of 2017 | By Andy Bruce
LONDON Reuters Britain s economy is likely to lose momentum in the second half of 2017 according to a closely watched survey that could disappoint some Bank of England officials who want to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade
Sterling dipped after Wednesday s Markit CIPS survey showed growth across British services companies fell to a four month low in June
Although the survey suggested the economy recovered some speed in the second quarter and probably expanded at a quarterly pace of around 0 4 percent double the pace of the weak first quarter there were some ominous signals in the PMI s forward looking gauges
Business expectations sank to their weakest level since last July s dip after the vote to leave the European Union and it was not far off lows last reached in late 2011 Growth in new orders hit a nine month low
The headline index edged down to a four month low of 53 4 in June from 53 8 in May just shy of a forecast for 53 5 in a Reuters poll of economists
On Tuesday BoE rate setter Michael Saunders said he was reasonably confident that lower consumer spending will be offset by higher exports and investment justifying his vote to raise interest rates from a record low 0 25 percent
But the latest PMI survey pours some cold water on that hypothesis said JPMorgan NYSE JPM economist Allan Monks
Indeed it is worth highlighting that the weakness in the UK PMI comes at a time when the broader European PMIs have strengthened considerably
The mood among services firms was probably hit by uncertainty after June s election in which Prime Minister Theresa May gambled away her parliamentary majority and by Brexit talks as well as the economic outlook IHS Markit said
A third monthly drop in car sales in June albeit from recent record highs underlined the slowdown among consumers
Separate official data showed productivity arguably Britain s biggest economic problem over the last decade fell in the first three months of the year the first decline since late 2015
The latest productivity data further complicates the outlook for BoE policymakers Although weak productivity reduces the scope for future wage growth it goes hand in hand with higher inflation
Unless more is done to tackle the nation s low productivity people s wages and living standards will continue to fall and the UK will be ill equipped to compete once we do leave the EU said Ian Brinkley acting chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development |
C | Ex JPMorgan Citi FX sales employees sue banks | By Anjuli Davies LONDON Reuters A former London based JPMorgan N JPM foreign exchange sales person is suing the Wall Street bank for unfair dismissal according to a court filing released on Wednesday Patrice Ktorza is scheduled to appear at the Stratford Employment Tribunal on June 1 In a separate case Nihel Bensenane who still works in foreign exchange sales at Citi N C based in London is suing the bank for sexual discrimination and unequal pay a court filing said Her case will begin on May 31 also at the Stratford Employment Tribunal JPMorgan and Citi declined to comment Ktorza who left JPMorgan in August 2015 and Bensenane did not immediately respond to requests for comment via LinkedIn NYSE LNKD
A growing number of former bank staff are going to London employment tribunals and alleging they were unfairly fired as conduct and culture in the banking industry come under scrutiny in the wake of the global financial crisis |
C | Foreign banks to start China yuan trade settlement on Friday | SHANGHAI Reuters The first batch of foreign commercial banks has registered to directly trade yuan used for overseas trade settlement and can begin doing so on Friday the foreign exchange market operator said Approved foreign commercial banks include CTBC Bank Taipei Fubon Bank Standard Chartered L STAN and Citibank Hong Kong Ltd C
Foreign central banks have already been approved to trade directly in the country s massive interbank forex market |
C | China approves plan to clean up online finance industry sources | By Shu Zhang and Matthew Miller BEIJING Reuters China s government has approved a plan to clean up the country s online financial sector according to people with direct knowledge of the matter including rules to limit the activities of P2P lending firms the source of recent fraud scandals The plan drafted by China s central bank follows a mid April video conference with 14 ministries and regulators organized by the State Council the country s cabinet which approved the plan document seen by the sources It outlines stricter rules for peer to peer P2P platforms where lending quadrupled last year to 440 billion yuan 67 billion according to Citigroup NYSE C research forbidding them from holding clients capital in house Instead client funds must be deposited with a qualified third party banking institution and kept separate from a P2P platform s own corporate funds Firms must also set up firewalls to manage transactions with affiliates The online finance sector has entered a tough period this year Wang Zhijian CEO of FuYin a Shanghai based P2P platform said at a financial forum on Friday Good platforms welcome government regulation for a simple reason without good rules bad players push out good players said Wang adding a lack of regulation forced all platforms into unfair competition In February authorities arrested 21 officials of Ezubao once China s biggest P2P lending platform which collected 7 6 billion inside two years from more than 900 000 investors It used savvy marketing authorities said to fund a complete Ponzi scheme that used investor funds to support a lavish lifestyle for company executives Last month police arrested 21 executives at Zhongjin Capital Management a high profile Shanghai based platform that promised retail investors double digit returns for short term projects accusing them of illegal fundraising These big cases are neither online finance nor P2P They are frauds covered in the name of P2P and online finance Wang Sicong chairman of P2P platform eLoan told Reuters He said eLoan s business dropped by a third after the Ezubao fraud was exposed Internet lending has made headlines not just in China recently with the U S Department of Justice investigating San Francisco based Lending Club Corp N LC which has admitted falsifying documentation when selling a package of loans COLLABORATION China s cabinet is urging the 14 ministries to work together and share information to clean up the online finance sector the sources said The government is also calling for the establishment of a centralized registration system for Internet financial products and a unified platform for Internet bank accounts The plan restricts what online financial platforms can do without a license from raising cash to fund real estate projects to engaging in financial services such as asset management It also creates additional responsibilities such as a requirement to match a client s risk profile to the investment products they sell The plan also forbids false advertising of financial products and prohibits non financial companies from registering names including finance asset management P2P payments fund and trading exchange An inter government body led by the central bank is also being set up with representatives from the banking securities and insurance regulators along with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development The plan calls for those ministries and departments to complete their field investigations by July and finish a sector wide clean up by November The cabinet intends to issue a report by next March China s central bank and State Council did not immediately respond to requests for comment
The contents of the plan document also appeared on social media in China on Friday and in Chinese media earlier |
C | Technology Stocks Lead In Bull Market | Technology stocks lead in bull marketTechnology stocks are leading the market Let s study the performance of a PCI composed of stocks of world s biggest technology companies Will the index rise
After a selloff last couple weeks on higher valuation concerns technology stocks keep rebounding While the recent rally stretched the valuation of growth stocks including tech stocks the valuations are still low compared with the highs reached during the tech boom of the late 1990s according to Citigroup s analysts
The largest technology stocks have returned about triple the S P 500 Index in 2017 year to date Concerns that prices have risen to unsustainable levels caused the last week s selloff as some investors considered rotating into value stocks Citigroup NYSE C analysts note that such a shift in the past 20 years has occurred only after a bull market has ended Current price to book ratio for US growth stocks is five times compared with a multiple of 17 during the late 1990s
On the daily chart the Technology Stocks D1 has been rebounding after a plunge in early June The price has remained above the 50 day moving average MA 50
The Bollinger bands are narrowing indicating declining volatility
The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal
The is above the signal line and the gap is rising which is a bullish signal
The has breached into the overbought zone which is a bearish signal
We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price closes above the upper Bollinger band at 154 24 It can be used as an entry point for a pending order to buy The stop loss can be placed below the last fractal low at 146 18 After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal low following Parabolic signals By doing so we are changing the probable profit loss ratio to the breakeven point
The most risk averse traders may switch to the 4 hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade If the price meets the stop loss level 146 18 without reaching the order 154 24 we recommend canceling the position the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account
Technical Analysis SummaryPosition BuyBuy stop Above 154 24Stop loss Below 146 18 |
JPM | JPMorgan Chase Slightly Overvalued | Banks have attracted special attention during the current period of socio economic turbulence because of their deep involvement in both financial and economic components of the crisis In 2009 we investigated and revealed the reasons behind bankruptcy of major banks and have been reporting on the evolution of many to big to fall institutions since then In March 2012 we presented a brand new model for JPMorgan Chase Co JPM stock price and predicted a negative correction in April May This forecast was correct the monthly closing price increased from 38 38 in February to 44 97 in March and then fell to 42 31 in April and to 32 63 in May The closing price in October 2012 was 41 68 which is approximately 2 higher than predicted Our updated model again shows the possibility of a negative correction in November December down to 38 On November 17 the closing price is 39 53 We would not recommend buying JPM shares and consider them as reaching some stability level at a two month horizon which is a natural horizon for our quantitative model JPM is a company from financial sector which provides various financial products and services worldwide The model has been obtained using our general concept of share pricing as based on a decomposition of a share price into a weighted sum of two consumer price indices Our main assumption is a natural one all goods and services produced provided by a given company should define the share price evolution relative to other companies In other words relative pricing power of the company is related to the pricing power of its G S Since other companies are also driven by prices for their goods and services which compete with the studied company one need two defining sets of G S to estimate the relative pricing power Presumably the studied share price can be defined by two CPIs The best CPIs are selected from a set of 92 CPIs with estimates available from 2000 In the tentative model presented in March 2012 the best fit in the LSQ sense consumer price indices are that of food and beverages F and the index of owner s equivalent rent of residence ORPR In the updated model the defining CPIs are the same and time lags of the price behind the CPIs are as follows the food index led the share price by 4 months and the ORPR index led by 2 months The tentative and updated models are as follows JPM t 1 99F t 3 1 15ORPR t 2 6 81ORPR t 1990 39 30 February 2012 JPM t 1 86F t 4 0 99ORPR t 2 7 04 t 2000 116 91 October 2012 where JPM t is the JPM share price in U S dollars t is calendar time As both models show the increasing food index suppresses the share price and the rent index drives it up Any big jump in food price results in a sharp fall in JPM price in four months It is worth noting that we present only those price models which are stable over longer periods of seven and more months This means that all models obtained since February 2012 are defined by the same CPIs with the same time lags when only contemporary data are used The tentative model also covered the period seven months before February 2012 This makes the presented model to be the best in the LSQ sence since August 2011 Figure 1 displays the evolution of both defining indices since 2002 Figure 2 depicts the high and low monthly prices for a share together with the predicted and measured monthly closing prices adjusted for dividends and splits The measured price volatility is much higher than the predicted one This means that large deviations from the predicted level are possible but such excursions are always ended on the predicted curve One can use this observation for a qualitative forecast of price movements as we did in March 2012 and do in this post The current deviation of the JPM price from its predicted level could be interpreted as a temporary one with the following return and dive below the line dynamic overshooting as was observed many times since 2003 The updated model validates the tentative one by the data measured during the eight month period The model residual error is shown in Figure 3 with the standard deviation between July 2003 and October 2012 of 2 96 |
MPC | Phillips 66 Partners To Slash Gray Oak Tariff Rates In Texas | Phillips 66 Partners LP NYSE PSXP recently filed for tariff cuts at the Gray Oak crude oil pipeline with state regulators in Texas per Reuters Committed and spot rates tariff drop from 4 75 a barrel set last October to 3 90 will likely take place within points in Texas Notably the new rates are expected to take effect on Dec 1 2019 The recent filing incorporated a new origin point at Santa Rita of Reagan County The pipeline with 900 000 barrel a day crude shipping capacity is expected to commence full service in first quarter 2020 The Gray Oak pipeline is expected to provide impetus to the prolific Permian Basin which was suffering from takeaway capacity constraints Moreover it will increase crude flow from the Eagle Ford Shale to refineries and terminals located in the Gulf Coast area The effects of the pipeline include narrowing of differentials between WTI Midland and the U S Gulf Coast benchmark priced out of Magellan East Houston terminal MEH a price assessment developed by Platts Phillips 66 Partners which generates stable fee based revenues under long term contracts from diverse midstream energy assets is expected to register massive gains from the Gray Oak pipeline With a 42 25 stake Phillips 66 Partners is the operator in the project It has Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC and Enbridge Inc NYSE ENB as partners In addition to Gray Oak pipeline Phillips 66 Partners an affiliate of Phillips 66 NYSE PSX plans to bring online three more organic projects comprising Sweeny to Pasadena products expansion South Texas Gateway Terminal and Clemens Caverns expansion in 2020 These projects are expected to boost its bottom line in the coming years as energy exports are anticipated to rise gradually Price Performance Zacks RankPhillips 66 Partners has gained 29 4 year to date compared with 7 5 growth of the it belongs to It currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see Just Released Zacks 7 Best Stocks for Today Experts extracted 7 stocks from the list of 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys that has beaten the market more than 2X over with a stunning average gain of 24 5 per year These 7 were selected because of their superior potential for immediate breakout |
MPC | 5 High Earnings Yield Stocks To Boost Your Portfolio | If you are in two minds about bonds or stocks you might want to consider earnings yield as a key parameter It is the reciprocal of the price to earnings P E ratio This ratio is quite effective for determining undervalued stocks It is also useful for comparing stocks with the market or fixed income securities Earnings yield can be calculated as annual earnings per share market price x 100 While comparing similar stocks the one with high earnings yield should fetch higher returns This ratio is effective for comparing the performance of the market with the 10 year Treasury yield When the yield of the market index is higher than the 10 year Treasury yield stocks can be said to be undervalued in comparison to bonds This implies that investing in the stock market is a better option for a value investor However while T bills are free from risks investing in stocks always carries its own share of perils Hence it will be wise to add a risk premium to the Treasury yield while comparing with the earnings yield of a stock or the broader market The Winning StrategyWe have set Earnings Yield greater than 10 as our primary screening criterion but it alone cannot be used for picking stocks that have the potential to generate solid returns So we have added the following parameters to the screen Estimated EPS growth for the next 12 months greater than or equal to the S P 500 This metric compares the 12 month forward EPS estimate with the 12 month actual EPS Average Daily Volume 20 Day greater than or equal to 100 000 High trading volume implies that a stock has adequate liquidity Current Price greater than or equal to 5 Buy Rated Stocks Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy or 2 Buy have been known to outperform peers in any type of market environment You can see Here are five of the 56 stocks that made it through the screen Based in Charlotte Sonic Automotive Inc NYSE SAH is one of the leading automotive retailers in the United States Apart from selling new and used cars and light trucks the company offers warranties service contracts vehicle financing and insurance Further it provides maintenance and repair services and sells replacement parts and aftermarket automotive products It has a Zacks Rank 2 and an expected EPS growth rate of 3 for the next 3 5 years Arizona based Meritage Homes Corporation NYSE MTH is one of the leading designers and builders of single family homes The company primarily engages in building and selling single family homes for entry level first time move up luxury and active adult buyers in historically high growth regions of the United States It has a Zacks Rank 1 and an expected EPS growth rate of 8 5 for the next 3 5 years Headquartered in Oregon Lithia Motors NYSE LAD is one of the leading automotive retailers of new and used vehicles and related services in the United States Apart from a wide range of new and used vehicles the company offers finance and insurance products and automotive repair and maintenance It has a Zacks Rank 1 and an expected EPS growth rate of 9 7 for the next 3 5 years Headquartered in L A Guess NYSE GES designs markets distribute and licenses casual apparel and accessories for men women and children per American lifestyle and European fashion sensibilities It has a Zacks Rank 2 and an expected EPS growth rate of 17 5 for the next 3 5 years Findlay OH based Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE MPC is a leading independent refiner transporter and marketer of petroleum products It has a Zacks Rank 2 and an expected EPS growth rate of 9 9 for the next 3 5 years You can get the rest of the stocks on this list by signing up now for a 2 week free trial to the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting software You can also create your own strategies and test them first before making investments The Research Wizard is a great place to begin It s easy to use Everything is in plain language And it s very intuitive Start your Research Wizard trial today And the next time you read an economic report open up the Research Wizard plug your finds in and see what gems come out Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material Disclosure Performance information for Zacks portfolios and strategies are available at |
MPC | Should Value Investors Buy Marathon Petroleum MPC Stock | Here at Zacks we focus on our proven ranking system which places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks But we also understand that investors develop their own strategies so we are constantly looking at the latest trends in value growth and momentum to find strong companies for our readers
Looking at the history of these trends perhaps none is more beloved than value investing This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market Value investors use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are being undervalued by the market at large
On top of the Zacks Rank investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits For example value investors will want to focus on the Value category Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and A grades for Value will be some of the highest quality value stocks on the market today
Marathon Petroleum MPC is a stock many investors are watching right now MPC is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy as well as an A grade for Value The stock has a Forward P E ratio of 8 74 This compares to its industry s average Forward P E of 10 45 Over the last 12 months MPC s Forward P E has been as high as 11 61 and as low as 6 88 with a median of 8 92
MPC is also sporting a PEG ratio of 0 88 This metric is used similarly to the famous P E ratio but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock s expected earnings growth rate MPC s PEG compares to its industry s average PEG of 1 09 Over the past 52 weeks MPC s PEG has been as high as 1 13 and as low as 0 48 with a median of 0 87
We should also highlight that MPC has a P B ratio of 0 96 The P B is a method of comparing a stock s market value to its book value which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities This stock s P B looks solid versus its industry s average P B of 1 25 Over the past 12 months MPC s P B has been as high as 1 55 and as low as 0 69 with a median of 0 94
Value investors also frequently use the P S ratio This metric is found by dividing a stock s price with the company s revenue Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement This means it could be a truer performance indicator MPC has a P S ratio of 0 32 This compares to its industry s average P S of 0 37
Finally our model also underscores that MPC has a P CF ratio of 6 13 This metric takes into account a company s operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their solid cash outlook MPC s current P CF looks attractive when compared to its industry s average P CF of 7 06 Over the past 52 weeks MPC s P CF has been as high as 8 86 and as low as 4 08 with a median of 6 23
These are just a handful of the figures considered in Marathon Petroleum s great Value grade Still they help show that the stock is likely being undervalued at the moment Add this to the strength of its earnings outlook and we can clearly see that MPC is an impressive value stock right now |
MPC | Zacks com Featured Highlights Include Sonic Automotive Meritage Homes Lithia Guess And Marathon | For Immediate ReleaseChicago IL November 27 2019 Stocks in this week s article are Sonic Automotive Inc NYSE SAH Meritage Homes Corp NYSE MTH Lithia Motors NYSE LAD Guess NYSE GES and Marathon Petroleum Corp NYSE MPC 5 High Earnings Yield Stocks to Boost Your PortfolioIf you are in two minds about bonds or stocks you might want to consider earnings yield as a key parameter It is the reciprocal of the price to earnings P E ratio This ratio is quite effective for determining undervalued stocks It is also useful for comparing stocks with the market or fixed income securities Earnings yield can be calculated as annual earnings per share market price x 100 While comparing similar stocks the one with high earnings yield should fetch higher returns This ratio is effective for comparing the performance of the market with the 10 year Treasury yield When the yield of the market index is higher than the 10 year Treasury yield stocks can be said to be undervalued in comparison to bonds This implies that investing in the stock market is a better option for a value investor However while T bills are free from risks investing in stocks always carries its own share of perils Hence it will be wise to add a risk premium to the Treasury yield while comparing with the earnings yield of a stock or the broader market For the rest of this Screen of the Week article please visit Zacks com at Disclosure Officers directors and or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and or hold long and or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material About Screen of the WeekZacks com created the first and best screening system on the web earning the distinction as the 1 site for screening stocks by Money Magazine But powerful screening tools is just the start That is why Zacks created the Screen of the Week to highlight profitable stock picking strategies that investors can actively use Strong Stocks that Should Be in the NewsMany are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar They re virtually unknown to the general public Yet today s 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys were generated by the stock picking system that has more than doubled the market from 1988 through 2016 Its average gain has been a stellar 25 per year Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook NASDAQ FB Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities including a broker dealer and an investment adviser which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates Contact Jim GiaquintoCompany Zacks comPhone 312 265 9268Email Visit Zacks com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks Terms and Conditions of Service disclaimer Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
MPC | Has Marathon Petroleum MPC Outpaced Other Oils Energy Stocks This Year | For those looking to find strong Oils Energy stocks it is prudent to search for companies in the group that are outperforming their peers Has Marathon Petroleum MPC been one of those stocks this year Let s take a closer look at the stock s year to date performance to find out
Marathon Petroleum is a member of the Oils Energy sector This group includes 306 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 13 The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different sector groups The average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups is measured and the sectors are listed from best to worst
The Zacks Rank is a proven system that emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions highlighting a variety of stocks that are displaying the right characteristics to beat the market over the next one to three months MPC is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPC s full year earnings has moved 1 84 higher within the past quarter This is a sign of improving analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook trend
According to our latest data MPC has moved about 4 17 on a year to date basis Meanwhile the Oils Energy sector has returned an average of 1 40 on a year to date basis As we can see Marathon Petroleum is performing better than its sector in the calendar year
Looking more specifically MPC belongs to the Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing industry a group that includes 13 individual stocks and currently sits at 41 in the Zacks Industry Rank On average stocks in this group have gained 11 50 this year meaning that MPC is slightly underperforming its industry in terms of year to date returns
Investors with an interest in Oils Energy stocks should continue to track MPC The stock will be looking to continue its solid performance |
MS | U S futures higher on Italian bond sale Dow Jones up 0 25 | Investing com U S stock futures pointed to a moderately higher open in thin year end trade on Wednesday as sentiment improved after a well received Italian bond auction although investors remained focused on a second sale scheduled Thursday Ahead of the open the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a rise of 0 25 S P 500 futures signaled a 0 27 increase while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0 27 gain With most investors already away on year end leave trading volumes were expected to remain low resulting in subdued trade Italy s Treasury sold EUR9 billion euros of six month bills at an average yield of 3 25 down from 6 50 in a previous auction in November The country also sold EUR1 73 of two year zero coupons at 5 Following the auction the yield on Italy s 10 year bonds traded at 6 76 slightly below the 7 threshold widely seen as unsustainable Despite the upbeat results Thursday s sale of EUR8 5 billion of long term Italian debt maturing between 2014 and 2022 was seen as a bigger test of market confidence in the country s sovereign debt Shares in retailers were expected to be active after comScore reported late on Tuesday that holiday spending rose by 15 from the same period a year ago to over USD35 billion so far this year Financial stocks were also expected to turn higher boosted by the well received Italian debt sale However Morgan Stanley was likely to remain under pressure as it announced plans to cut 580 jobs at four offices in New York City Citigroup was also to remain in focus after a delay was won by the U S Securities and Exchange Commission in its lawsuit against the bank as the regulator is trying to appeal a judge s decision to reject its USD285 million settlement with the U S lender Elsewhere shares in Mead Johnson Nutrition were expected to be affected by a probe into baby formula including the company s Enfamil after a third infant in the United States tested positive for Cronobacter a bacteria that has sometimes been linked to rare illnesses in newborns and has been found in milk based powdered baby formula Across the Atlantic European stock markets were higher The EURO STOXX 50 jumped rose 0 47 France s CAC 40 advanced 0 64 Germany s DAX eased up 0 09 while Britain s FTSE 100 climbed 0 63 During the Asian trading session Hong Kong s Hang Seng Index fell 0 75 while Japan s Nikkei 225 Index dipped 0 2 |
MS | Gold futures Weekly outlook January 2 6 | Investing com Gold futures rose for the first time in seven sessions on Friday as the previous day s drop to a six month low created bargain buying opportunities for investors reluctant to bet that prices would fall further in the new year On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for February delivery settled at USD1 566 15 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday dropping 2 63 over the week Gold futures were likely to find at USD1 523 95 a troy ounce the low of December 29 and a six month low and resistance at USD1 594 25 the high of December 28 Gold prices fell 3 4 in the fourth quarter the first quarterly loss in three years Despite the recent slump prices gained 10 in 2011 marking an eleventh consecutive annual gain Gold futures plunged nearly 5 5 in the six sessions leading up to Friday as investors were reluctant to open new positions before the new year amid lingering concerns over the euro zone s debt crisis with moves amplified in poor year end liquidity Year end selling by hedge funds and tight liquidity in European interbank money markets have also contributed to recent price falls Prices fell to the lowest level since early July on Thursday after Italy s Treasury sold just over EUR7 billion of long term debt maturing between 2014 and 2022 below the maximum target of EUR8 5 billion The sale was seen as the first test of European banks willingness to purchase long term sovereign debt of distressed euro zone countries following the preceding week s nearly EUR500 billion cash infusion by the European Central Bank For much of 2011 investors typical reaction to bad news from Europe was to buy gold as it boosts the safe haven appeal of the precious metal but that relationship has unraveled in recent months Gold prices lost nearly 21 since hitting a record high of USD1923 70 in early September as investors turned to the U S dollar as their safe haven of choice amid Europe s deepening sovereign debt crisis Looking ahead to 2012 many market analysts expect gold prices to retest September s record high as the same factors that have boosted gold remain intact Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report Thursday that they expect gold prices to peak at over USD1 900 in 2012 on low real interest rates negative risk sentiment and a tight supply demand balance Meanwhile Morgan Stanley expects gold to average USD2 200 an ounce in 2012 citing low interest rates in the U S and the potential for more economic stimulus in developed economies Elsewhere on the Comex silver for March delivery settled at USD27 81 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday losing 4 4 on the week while copper for March delivery settled at USD3 433 a pound slumping 0 98 over the week On the year silver prices declined 9 8 the first annual loss since 2009 while copper which is often regarded as a leading indicator of the global economy saw prices tumble 23 the first yearly decline since 2008 Comex floor trading will be closed on Monday January 2 in observance of the New Year s holiday |
JPM | Global equity listings up by a third but below previous peaks | By Dasha Afanasieva LONDON Reuters Global equity listings rose sharply in the first half of the year compared with a year earlier driven by the U S market as well as rights issues in Europe Thomson Reuters data showed but remained way off 2015 s surge Stronger and calmer markets a brighter economic outlook in some countries as well as the avoidance of further political shocks in several European elections helped equity raising markets recover from 2016 when worries about China s economy the British vote to leave the European Union and commodity prices discouraged potential issuers Companies globally issued 386 8 billion of equity in the first half of this year up 33 percent from the same period in 2016 which was the worst since 2008 Despite the rebound issuance remained way off the highest issuance in more than 15 years in 2015 when 519 5 billion was raised Including some 60 initial public offerings IPOs and 355 follow on offerings U S companies raised 116 8 billion in equity in the first half 46 percent more than they did in the first half of 2016 The United States is a stand out it has led in all fronts including IPOs it started with inflationary expectations but there is also optimism about tax reform and the Fed slowly raising rates while being in control of the economy said Achintya Mangla head of equity capital markets ECM in Europe Middle East and Africa at JP Morgan N JPM which was the top bookrunner globally by proceeds Investors are being selective and they are very focused on after market trading We will see more IPOs in Europe and the United States and underwriters need to remain focused and disciplined on pricing and secondary market performance Mangla added More than a quarter of U S IPO proceeds were from the high technology sector Snap N SNAP the owner of Snapchat a mobile photo app remained the largest U S equity offering but was only the sixth biggest ECM deal in the world with European bank issues dominating Unicredit MI CRDI in the first quarter and Credit Suisse S CSGN and Deutsche Bank DE DBKGn in the second tapped equity markets cumulatively raising proceeds of more than 26 billion For the rest of the year the market looked to a rights issue from German pharmaceutical giant Bayer DE BAYGn to help raise 19 billion worth of equity capital to finance its acquisition of U S seeds firm Monsanto N MON Relatively the Asia Pacific region lagged behind with a rise in ECM volume of 7 4 percent to 95 1 billion and just one deal in the global top 10 the 30 billion yuan 4 35 billion convertible bond issue from China Everbright Bank in March EUROPEAN IPO SLUMP IPOs in Europe declined further from 2016 s slump The oversubscribed listing of Allied Irish Banks I ALBK in Dublin and London was a rare bright spot and a milestone for the Irish recovery from the economic crisis almost a decade ago We re certainly not seeing the return to boom times just yet The economy in the UK and Europe is softer compared to the United States and that may create headwinds for domestic listings said Maegan Morrison head of the ECM practice at law firm Hogan Lovells Bankers said the prospect of Britain leaving the European Union unnerved some potential issuers concerned over how Brexit could impact London s position as a global financial hub For most of the international companies we speak with in the past London would win as a listing venue Now there s a genuine debate Brexit is coming up in every single conversation as a source of uncertainty a senior investment banker at a top global bank in London said speaking on condition of anonymity
New York is the clear beneficiary for IPOs and that s a problem for capital inflows into the UK |
JPM | U S consumer spending rises modestly inflation cools | By Jason Lange WASHINGTON Reuters U S consumer spending rose modestly in May and inflation cooled pointing to a slow but steady economic expansion that could still lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of the year The data released by the Commerce Department on Friday bolstered the view that the U S economy is rebounding in the second quarter although a separate report showed a gauge of consumer confidence fell in June to its lowest level since November Consumer spending which accounts for more than two thirds of U S economic activity rose 0 1 percent last month according to the Commerce Department Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 1 4 percent on a yearly basis compared to a 1 5 percent gain in April Yields on U S government debt rose and U S stock prices rose after the spending data was published The dollar DXY was little changed against a basket of currencies Some Fed policymakers are worried that inflation may fall further below the central bank s 2 percent target but Fed Chair Janet Yellen said earlier this month that inflation would likely be soft in the coming months due to temporary factors Solid consumer spending is supporting the outlook for faster inflation and continued economic growth The slower spending growth in May followed two monthly increases of 0 4 percent which suggests economic growth is on track to accelerate in the second quarter after a meager expansion in the first three months of the year It still looks like real consumption picked up lately said Daniel Silver an economist at JPMorgan NYSE JPM in New York The personal consumption expenditures PCE price index fell 0 1 percent in May from April dragged lower by drops in prices for consumer goods and energy When food and energy were excluded the index was up 0 1 percent The 12 month reading for the so called core inflation has been slowing since March The slowdown in inflation has boosted consumer spending power After tax personal income adjusted for inflation rose 0 6 percent in May the largest gain since April 2015
Even so the University of Michigan s consumer sentiment index fell to 95 1 this month its lowest since November according to a final reading for the gauge published on Friday The index has been rising more or less steadily since 2008 and in November it hit its highest level since before the 2007 09 recession |
JPM | Key events in July may make or break markets view on Fed policy plans | Investing com Though the month of July will get off to a slow start with Wall Street only open a half day on Monday and closed on Tuesday for the Fourth of July holiday the pace for markets will quickly pick up as they turn their attention to key events scheduled for the entire month with a particularly close eye on the Federal Reserve Fed
Quick start to Fed references
Wednesday will get the ball rolling with the publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC
In June the Fed opted to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to a range between 1 00 and 1 25 and reiterated its forecast that there would be another increase by the end of the year
Markets continue to disagree with the projection of another rate hike in 2017 putting the odds for a move in December at just 45 according to Investing com s Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Most of the attention on the minutes will most likely focus on the details of the Fed s plans for balance sheet normalization with markets widely expecting the central bank to hold off until September to begin implementation
July 7 will bring two references to the table with first the publication of the June employment report Consensus is looking for the jobless rate to remain at 4 3 and the creation of 177 000 nonfarm payrolls
With the U S economy near full employment the Fed will most likely keep an eye on average hourly earnings Wage inflation has continued to be a missing factor in the firming labor market one which the Fed believes is primarily responsible for the fact that inflation has not been moving towards its 2 target
Also Friday the Fed will release its semiannual monetary policy report five days ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 00AM ET 14 00GMT on July 12
In the past the report was released with the testimony of the Fed chair
The Fed said a copy of her prepared remarks would be released the same day at 8 30AM ET 12 30GMT
Her testimony will likely be the last chance for markets to adjust expectations ahead of the next two day Fed policy meeting on July 25 26
Fed fund futures put zero chance of a rate increase for the decision on the 26 The meeting also does not include economic projections or a press conference with Yellen so investors will be stuck analyzing the FOMC statement for any clues as to the Fed s intentions
Markets will analyze the language for any signs of change with a particular focus on the views for inflation which was downgraded at the June meeting
Reporting season picks up steam
The Fed aside markets will have other focal points in July that could determine whether the stock rally continues a correction begins or movement simply flatlines
The second quarter earnings season will begin in earnest during the week of July 10 with the unofficial start now considered to be JP Morgan s NYSE JPM report on Friday July 14 at approximately 7 00AM ET 11 00GMT
With only 23 of the S P 500 companies having reported so far 78 have beat estimates for earnings with growth of 16 4 while 87 have topped consensus on sales thanks to revenue growth of 8 5 according to The Earnings Scout
However these experts warn that the increase in the collective growth rate will not continue as in their opinion earnings topped in the first quarter
Consensus is expecting year on year earnings growth of 7 9 a far cry below the 15 registered in the first quarter
Hopes for Congress to pave the way for tax reforms
Markets also have their gaze set throughout the month on the July 28 which is the final day before Congress begins its recess which lasts until September 5
Investors are anxious for Congress to get several key issues out of the way so they can move on to tax reforms
Hopes are that Congress will make a final decision on the healthcare bill paving the way for the 2018 budget to be adopted
Another factor is the debt ceiling but stumbling blocks in all cases hinge on an apparent wide divide between conservative and centrist Republicans
Their disagreement on key issues is the major obstacle for passing legislation in the both chambers despite the party majority
The slow start to what is usually considered to be a vacation month may well be deceiving
July may turn out to be anything but a vacation for traders who will face what may be a busy month for market volatility |
C | Citigroup U S Bancorp exit money losing Brazil card venture | By Guillermo Parra Bernal and Bruno Federowski SAO PAULO Reuters Citigroup Inc NYSE C and U S Bancorp have agreed to sell Brazilian card payment processing joint venture Elavon do Brasil to a local rival for an undisclosed sum ending months of negotiations to exit the money losing company Both U S lenders which were partners in Elavon for five years confirmed the transaction on Friday in separate statements that did not specify the value of the sale or other details U S Bancorp owns 50 9 percent of Elavon with Citigroup holding the remainder The buyer S o Paulo based Stone Pagamentos SA agreed to replenish Elavon s capital and provide additional funds for growth as part of the transaction according to two sources with direct knowledge of the deal Elavon ended last year with negative equity of 200 million reais 56 million leading regulators to press for a prompt capital injection Relations between both partners soured and a sale began to be negotiated late last year after Citigroup failed to come up with money to bolster the finances of Elavon Brazil s No 4 payment processor Reuters reported in November Elavon failed to gain traction in Brazil s burgeoning 250 billion payment processing market which is dominated by Cielo SA and Rede a unit of Ita Unibanco Holding SA While Cielo Rede and peer GetNet Servi os own a combined 97 percent of the market Elavon has less than 2 percent Citigroup s mounting retail banking losses and rampant competition from Cielo and other rivals thwarted Elavon s efforts to increase market share in the local card processing market to a targeted 15 percent Earlier in the year Citigroup announced intentions to exit Brazil where it has operated for more than a century According to the first source Stone a mobility and payments solutions provider is controlled by Brazilian investment firm Arpex Capital of which billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann is a partner and mid sized consumer lender Banco Pan SA Lemann whose fortune Forbes magazine estimates at about 31 billion shares control of Anheuser Busch InBev SA the world s largest beer maker with buyout firm 3G Capital Efforts to contact Stone s media office were unsuccessful Greenhill Co Inc advised Elavon on the deal with Citigroup s investment banking unit working on the bank s side and Stone not using a financial adviser for the transaction the sources said Citigroup shares rose 0 4 percent to 47 01 while U S Bancorp added 1 9 percent to 43 36 in afternoon New York Stock Exchange trading |
C | Citigroup names Lam as China country head | HONG KONG Reuters Citigroup N C has named Christine Lam as its country head for China replacing Andrew Au who is retiring the Wall Street bank said in a statement on Tuesday Lam has worked with Citigroup for more than 33 years and will continue to report to Francisco Aristeguieta Citigroup s Asia Pacific chief executive In her most recent role she was the head of Asia Pacific operations and technology and prior to that she was the country business manager for Hong Kong and Macau Citigroup secured its onshore securities joint venture Citi Orient Securities under Au s watch The change of guard comes at a time of some change for Citigroup which sold its minority stake in mainland regional lender China Guangfa Bank in February It has also shrunk its China branch network and is looking to grow via its digital platform |
C | Crude rises sharply amid signals for stronger demand ahead of API report | Investing com Crude futures surged 2 on Tuesday amid indications of stronger demand growth in upcoming weeks ahead of the release of the American Petroleum Institute s weekly inventory report after the close of trading
On the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude for June delivery traded in a broad range between 42 52 and 44 19 a barrel before settling at 43 94 up 1 30 or 3 05 on the session On the Intercontinental Exchange ICE brent crude for June delivery wavered between 44 16 and 45 82 a barrel before closing at 45 51 up 1 19 or 2 69 on the session Following the solid gains oil prices worldwide are up by approximately 40 since falling to 12 year lows in mid February Crude futures are also up nearly 10 since talks at a closely watched meeting in Doha ended prematurely after Saudi Arabia refused to freeze production at January levels unless Iran also agreed to cap its output
On Tuesday oil price resumed their accent back toward 2016 yearly highs following a wave of bullish reports In June Saudi state owned oil company Aramco will ship 730 000 barrels in storage in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa to China s eastern province of Shandong Reuters reported At the same time Citigroup Inc NYSE C said in a note to investors that the Saudi kingdom could ramp up production by 500 000 bpd to accommodate the new sales The added output would boost Saudi production to near all time record highs above 11 million barrels per day
Any surges in global demand are viewed as bullish for oil as supply continues to outstrip demand by more than 1 million bpd It came one day after the Saudi cabinet approved a plan to offer a 5 stake in Aramco in an initial public offering valued as much as 2 trillion The Aramco sale is an integral part of the kingdom s comprehensive plan to lessen its reliance on oil by 2030 In an interview with the Saudi state owned al Arabiya network Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman indicated that national production can remain steady even as the price of oil hovers around 30 a barrel
Oil prices have remained persistently low since OPEC roiled global markets in November 2014 with a coordinated effort to maintain its production ceiling above 30 million bpd Months earlier crude future prices peaked at 115 a barrel
Investors await the release of the American Petroleum Institute weekly crude stockpile report on Tuesday evening for further signals on the supply demand imbalance on domestic markets Separately Wednesday s government report could show that crude inventories nationwide rose by 2 3 million barrels last week Earlier this week global energy information provider Genscape Inc reported that stockpiles at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma rose by 1 5 million barrels for the week ending on April 22 Cushing the nation s largest storage facility is the main delivery point of NYMEX oil
The U S Dollar Index which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies lost more than 0 35 to an intraday low of 94 40 The index remains near eight month lows Dollar denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates |
C | Citigroup shareholders endorse executive pay nix breakup study | NEW YORK Reuters Citigroup Inc NYSE C shareholders on Tuesday approved of the company s compensation of executives and also sided with directors in rejecting a call for a special study of breaking up the big bank In the so called say on pay referendum 63 6 percent of votes were cast to approve 2015 compensation awards according to a preliminary count announced by the company at its annual general meeting in Miami Proxy advisory firms Institutional Shareholder Services Inc and Glass Lewis Co had recommended investors vote against approving last year s payouts to executives The firms had said it was wrong for CEO Mike Corbat to have received a 27 percent increase in annual compensation which boosted his total for 2015 to 16 5 million even though the bank s shareholder returns have lagged competitors Directors had said that Corbat delivered more improvements in company financial performance than were shown in the stock price in 2015 They also said Corbat s pay should rebound from having been docked the year before because of past regulatory capital issues and fraud in a business in Mexico In another vote only 3 5 percent of votes cast favored a breakup study of the bank which is the fourth biggest in the United States by assets
Chairman Mike O Neill said at the meeting that the company s strategy for its size and scope is based on extensive analysis including three major studies over the past seven years Corbat said Citigroup s scale and business mix contribute to annual operating efficiencies of 8 billion to 12 billion |
C | NYMEX crude gains sharply after API draws aid sentiment | Investing com Crude rose smartly in Asia on Wednesday as U S industry estimates of stockpiles showed drops that signaled solid demand prospects
The American Petroleum Institute weekly crude stockpile report showed a larger than expected drop of 1 070 million barrels while gasoline stock fell by 400 000 barrels less than expected ahead of the summer driving season and distillates stocks eased by 1 0 million barrels
On the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude for June delivery gained 1 09 to 44 52 a barrel
Separately Wednesday s government report could show that crude inventories nationwide rose by 2 3 million barrels last week Earlier this week global energy information provider Genscape Inc reported that stockpiles at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma rose by 1 5 million barrels for the week ending on April 22 Cushing the nation s largest storage facility is the main delivery point of NYMEX oil
Overnight crude futures surged 2 on Tuesday amid indications of stronger demand growth in upcoming weeks ahead of the release of the American Petroleum Institute s weekly inventory report after the close of trading
On the Intercontinental Exchange ICE Brent crude for June delivery wavered between 44 16 and 45 82 a barrel before closing at 45 51 up 1 19 or 2 69 on the session Following the solid gains oil prices worldwide are up by approximately 40 since falling to 12 year lows in mid February Crude futures are also up nearly 10 since talks at a closely watched meeting in Doha ended prematurely after Saudi Arabia refused to freeze production at January levels unless Iran also agreed to cap its output
In June Saudi state owned oil company Aramco will ship 730 000 barrels in storage in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa to China s eastern province of Shandong Reuters reported At the same time Citigroup Inc NYSE NYSE C said in a note to investors that the Saudi kingdom could ramp up production by 500 000 bpd to accommodate the new sales The added output would boost Saudi production to near all time record highs above 11 million barrels per day
Any surges in global demand are viewed as bullish for oil as supply continues to outstrip demand by more than 1 million bpd It came one day after the Saudi cabinet approved a plan to offer a 5 stake in Aramco in an initial public offering valued as much as 2 trillion
The Aramco sale is an integral part of the kingdom s comprehensive plan to lessen its reliance on oil by 2030 In an interview with the Saudi state owned al Arabiya network Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman indicated that national production can remain steady even as the price of oil hovers around 30 a barrel
Oil prices have remained persistently low since OPEC roiled global markets in November 2014 with a coordinated effort to maintain its production ceiling above 30 million bpd Months earlier crude future prices peaked at 115 a barrel |
C | NYMEX Brent gain as API draws aid sentiment | Investing com Crude rose in Asia on Wednesday as U S industry estimates of stockpiles showed drops that signaled solid demand prospects and investors awaited word from the Federal Reserve on intersst rates
The American Petroleum Institute weekly crude stockpile report showed a larger than expected drop of 1 070 million barrels while gasoline stock fell by 400 000 barrels less than expected ahead of the summer driving season and distillates stocks eased by 1 0 million barrels
On the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude for June delivery gained 1 00 to 44 48 a barrel Brent oil gained 0 97 to 46 02 a barrel
Separately Wednesday s government report could show that crude inventories nationwide rose by 2 3 million barrels last week Earlier this week global energy information provider Genscape Inc reported that stockpiles at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma rose by 1 5 million barrels for the week ending on April 22 Cushing the nation s largest storage facility is the main delivery point of NYMEX oil
Overnight crude futures surged 2 on Tuesday amid indications of stronger demand growth in upcoming weeks ahead of the release of the American Petroleum Institute s weekly inventory report after the close of trading
On the Intercontinental Exchange ICE Brent crude for June delivery wavered between 44 16 and 45 82 a barrel before closing at 45 51 up 1 19 or 2 69 on the session Following the solid gains oil prices worldwide are up by approximately 40 since falling to 12 year lows in mid February Crude futures are also up nearly 10 since talks at a closely watched meeting in Doha ended prematurely after Saudi Arabia refused to freeze production at January levels unless Iran also agreed to cap its output
In June Saudi state owned oil company Aramco will ship 730 000 barrels in storage in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa to China s eastern province of Shandong Reuters reported At the same time Citigroup Inc NYSE NYSE C said in a note to investors that the Saudi kingdom could ramp up production by 500 000 bpd to accommodate the new sales The added output would boost Saudi production to near all time record highs above 11 million barrels per day
Any surges in global demand are viewed as bullish for oil as supply continues to outstrip demand by more than 1 million bpd It came one day after the Saudi cabinet approved a plan to offer a 5 stake in Aramco in an initial public offering valued as much as 2 trillion
The Aramco sale is an integral part of the kingdom s comprehensive plan to lessen its reliance on oil by 2030 In an interview with the Saudi state owned al Arabiya network Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman indicated that national production can remain steady even as the price of oil hovers around 30 a barrel
Oil prices have remained persistently low since OPEC roiled global markets in November 2014 with a coordinated effort to maintain its production ceiling above 30 million bpd Months earlier crude future prices peaked at 115 a barrel |
C | Iron ore steel lead China commodities retreat as curbs bite | By Manolo Serapio Jr MANILA Reuters Iron ore and steel futures in China sank again on Wednesday as authorities raised trading costs to deter speculative investors believed to be behind last week s big spike in prices and volumes which has raised fears of a destabilizing crash The Dalian Commodity Exchange increased the transaction fees on steelmaking raw materials iron ore coking coal and coke for a second time this week Other commodity exchanges in Shanghai and Zhengzhou have imposed similar curbs to restore calm in markets after a week long surge unsettled global investors I think it s working said Wang Di analyst at CRU consultancy in Beijing referring to the trading curbs What they re trying to do is minimize too much speculation especially from the retail investors Analysts say speculators were betting that a rise in infrastructure spending in China would lift raw material prices which have been depressed for years by a persistent supply glut The rapid price gains have defied the supply demand fundamentals of the commodities and analysts warn there is a risk of a bigger correction ahead similar to last summer s crash in Chinese shares which also followed a frothy run up If prices in China go too far off from fundamentals markets in China could lose credibility similar to what had happened in the stock market Citigroup NYSE C analysts said in a report The most traded September iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by its 6 percent downside limit for a second day in a row on Wednesday and was standing at 432 yuan a ton by midday Coking coal and coke on Dalian also slid by the 6 percent maximum allowed by the exchange On the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar or reinforcing bar used in construction fell 4 8 percent to 2 472 yuan a ton The less traded hot rolled tumbled by its 6 percent downside limit After raising the transaction fee on iron ore futures contracts twice the Dalian exchange said it will step up supervision and resolutely curb signs of overheated speculation in some products to prevent risks and maintain steady operations of markets The bourse said it would be on high alert in monitoring market movements and will take more measures if necessary according to a statement from the exchange issued late on Tuesday
Wednesday s pullback was largely limited to steel and steelmaking futures but other commodities also slipped Cotton on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell 2 5 percent and egg futures slipped nearly 2 percent on Dalian |
C | Real estate activist Litt bets against IRET | By Michael Flaherty NEW YORK Reuters An activist hedge fund focused on real estate launched its first public bet against a company on Wednesday prompting Investors Real Estate Trust shares to fall more than 11 percent Land Buildings founded by former Citigroup NYSE C analyst Jonathan Litt released an investor presentation that showed IRET s debt levels and exposure to North Dakota s struggling economy were among the reasons why the real estate investment trust s stock was set to fall nearly 40 percent to a fair value of 4 40 IRET shares fell to 6 22 on news of the activist campaign which was first reported by Reuters early on Wednesday The Minot North Dakota based REIT in an emailed statement disputed Land Buildings claims The Company remains focused on building shareholder value through execution of its strategic plan and disagrees with the analysis in the presentation IRET said IRET said it was taking steps to reduce expenses and to strengthen its balance sheet IRET which owns multifamily senior housing and medical office properties across the Midwest has a market value of nearly 1 billion Activist hedge funds typically buy minority stakes in companies and then push for changes that would boost their stock Land Buildings has waged campaigns for change at such companies as MGM Resorts International and New York REIT Inc The fund based in Stamford Connecticut manages about 200 million of assets Occasionally activists most notably Pershing Square s William Ackman will make public a short position or bet against a company it believes is overvalued Land Buildings said in its presentation that IRET was continuing to add properties even as rental income in some energy exposed markets have fallen by half IRET has acquired more than 140 million of apartment assets so far this year Land Buildings said North Dakota one of IRET s top markets has been hit hard by the plunge in energy prices a factor that Land Buildings said it believed would take a toll on the REIT IRET has 1 1 billion in debt and 49 million in cash on its balance sheet according to Thomson Reuters data In its analysis Land Buildings compares IRET to four public apartment REITs All four stock prices trade at an average 25 percent discount to their estimated net asset value Land Buildings said while IRET trades at around a 17 percent premium |
C | Citi puts Asia credit card payment processing business up for sale sources | HONG KONG Reuters Citigroup N C has put its Asia credit card payment processing business on the block as part of an ongoing global plan to exit non core operations people familiar with the matter told Reuters Citi s Credit Card Merchant Acquiring business provides credit and debit card payment processing services to thousands of merchants in Asia and generates around 400 million in gross revenue the people added About 70 percent of the business comes from Hong Kong Singapore and India they added Final bids are due in about three weeks Citi started exiting its merchants acquiring businesses in other regions starting in 2005 and Asia is the last remaining market where it still provides this service Citi generated 2 6 billion in revenue in Asia 2015 from its credit card business Citi declined to comment while the people declined to be identified as the sale process was confidential
This story has been corrected in headline and first paragraph to clarify that the unit for sale is Citi s credit card payment processing business not its payment processing business The penultimate paragraph has been corrected to make clear that revenue is for its Asia credit card business |
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