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Ghana set to pass anti-homosexuality law after legal challenge fails in Supreme Court
Ghana is set to pass an anti-homosexuality law after its Supreme Court blocked a legal challenge.
Same-sex intercourse is already illegal in the West African nation, and is punishable by up to three years in jail.
The Ghanaian parliament has been debating the Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill for two years, with most MPs in favour of it.
It would criminalise same-sex relations, being transgender and advocating for LGBTQ+ rights (which alone is punishable by up to 10 yeas in jail under the bill), Reuters reported.
A legal challenge, filed by academic researcher Amanda Odoi, said the proposed legislation would affect donor aid and other financial support for the country, according to the news agency.
However, the Supreme Court ruled last week that her arguments were not convincing enough to grant an injunction, meaning Ghana’s parliament has a clear path to getting the bill through its final stages and signed into law.
Shortly after the bill had its first reading in August 2021, a group of 13 United Nations experts called for it to be rejected, branding it “a textbook example of discrimination” and a “recipe for conflict and violence”.
They said it would promote conversion therapy, unnecessary medical procedures on intersex children and so-called corrective rape, where women are raped with the perpetrator claiming it was to make them heterosexual.
In January 2022, the bill was even called out for being too “severe” by the House of Bishops of the Anglican Church of Ghana.
Earlier this year, United States vice-president Kamala Harris, standing next to Ghana president Nana Akufo-Addo during a press conference, said she felt “very strongly” about supporting the development of LGBTQ+ rights in Africa.
It was something she considered “a human rights issue and that will not change,” she added.
Other African countries are also clamping down on queer rights.
Uganda has already passed a strict anti-homosexuality bill into law. It introduces a death sentence for “aggravated homosexuality”, which is defined as sex with a person under the age of 18 and having sex while HIV positive, among other categories.
Kenya is also considering an anti-homosexuality bill. The Family Protection Act would see a complete ban on activities that “promote homosexuality”, including openly identifying as LGBTQ+ or wearing Pride emblems.
It heavily reflects the law in Uganda, with a similar “aggravated homosexuality” clause that could also result in the execution of offenders.
MyPinkNews members are invited to comment on articles to discuss the content we publish, or debate issues more generally. Please familiarise yourself with our community guidelines to ensure that our community remains a safe and inclusive space for all. | Africa politics |
Labour and Tories to win 33 Westminster seats, says poll
The SNP will lose seats to Labour and the Conservatives at the next general election, according to a poll that will be a new blow for the nationalists.
Labour will secure 22 of the 57 redrawn Westminster constituencies in Scotland — 21 more than now — in an electoral avalanche that will leave the SNP trailing, the poll suggests.
The most surprising finding is that the Scottish Conservatives will pick up 11 Commons seats, five more than at present, as voters reject SNP dominance of Scottish politics. The Liberal Democrats will win four seats, the same as currently.
The voting trends survey was conducted by Stonehaven, a political consultancy that specialises in data and analytics. It was published at the end of yet another torrid week for the SNP-Green alliance at Holyrood.
Polling since the overwhelming Labour victory in the Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-election last month has consistently shown the party ahead of the SNP.
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If the Stonehaven poll is right, the SNP seat tally at the next general election, which could take place as early as the spring, would be the party’s worst showing since 2010.
The survey indicates Labour victories in the seven Lanarkshire constituencies, the two Paisley and Renfrewshire constituencies, Inverclyde, and West Dunbartonshire, four of the six Glasgow seats, three of the four Fife seats, East Lothian, Midlothian and the Western Isles.
But it is the Conservative result that is the least expected, as it bucks the UK trend. Senior figures in the party believe they will not only hold the six seats they have but gain Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, and Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey.
They are less certain about taking the seats predicted by the poll — East Renfrewshire, Central Ayrshire, and in Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber.
SNP MPs, candidates and agents gathered on Saturday in Stirling for an election summit to discuss strategy and tactics for a general election. One MSP on his way to the summit said: “The polls are horrific and the next few weeks will not be pretty.”
A new fissure appeared yesterday when Stewart McDonald, the former SNP defence spokesman, criticised Angus Robertson, the cabinet secretary for external affairs, for a Chinese trip that is not “ in our national interest”.
Stewart described China as “the biggest state-based threat to Scotland’s economic security”.
The SNP endured a tough week. Humza Yousaf’s government was accused of being “asleep at the wheel” by the announcement of the closure in 2025 of Scotland’s only oil refinery which threatens 400 jobs in Grangemouth.
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That added to the row over the iPad expenses of Michael Matheson, the health minister, who told MSPs that an £11,000 data roaming bill run up on a family holiday in Morocco was due to parliamentary business. He later said that his sons had used the device to provide an internet hotspot so they could watch football.
The SNP-Green administration was also hit by a legal action being brought for £3 million in damages by Alex Salmond, the former first minister, over the Scottish government’s bungled investigation into alleged sex offences. Salmond was cleared of all charges. | United Kingdom Politics |
Russian President Vladimir Putin makes a toast as he takes part in the XIV BRICS summit in virtual format via a video call, in Moscow on June 23, 2022.Mikhail Metzel | AFP | Getty ImagesThe Group of 7 nations need to brace for a complete shutdown of Russian gas pipelines in the near term, and it could have severe consequences for Europe's economy, one analyst warned."The G-7 have to prepare for a shutdown of gas. The G-7 can deal with a cutback on oil. There are other supplies that could be gotten around the world, but the gas could be shut off and that would have consequences," said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNBC on Monday."Russia already has cut back substantially on gas flowing to Germany and through Ukraine, so shutting down the pipelines is not inconceivable. Russia also sells some LNG to Europe but not that much," he said in an email after the interview."The total cut-off of Russian supplies would prompt gas rationing at least for the short term," he said. "Russian supplies would be partially offset by increased LNG imports, increased supplies from Norway and Algeria, fuel-switching to coal, and conservation measures," Schott added.Gazprom, Russia's state-backed energy supplier, has reduced its gas flows to Europe by about 60% over the past few weeks. The move prompted Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands to all indicate they could turn back to coal once again.His comments came as the leaders of the G-7 wealthiest nations met in Munich, Germany, for their latest summit. As global pressure continues to pile on Russia over its assault on Ukraine, Europe is facing "a very tight situation," Schott told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday."They're playing for time. The more there is a hostility against Russia, the more Putin threatens and perhaps acts to cut off more gas to Europe. I see that coming sooner rather than later," he added.Growing concerns in EuropeEuropean leaders have been growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of a total shutdown of gas supplies from Russia.Germany declared recently it is moving to the so-called "alert level" of its emergency gas plan, as reduced Russian flows exacerbate fears of a winter supply shortage.On Thursday, Economy Minister Robert Habeck announced that Germany would move to stage two of its three-stage plan — an indication that Europe's largest economy now sees a high risk of long-term gas supply shortages.The EU receives roughly 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines and is trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons in response to the Kremlin's months-long onslaught in Ukraine.The action taken to stop buying Russian gold is one small step in the right direction.Jeffrey SchottPeterson Institute for International EconomicsGermany, which is highly dependent on Russian gas, had previously sought to maintain robust energy ties with Moscow."The threat is that there would be a cut-off of gas before the European gas reserves are filled and that would be a threat to European growth and would cause rationing. So Putin is putting his cards on the table and whether he follows through with the threat, it remains to be seen," Schott said.Banning Russian goldIn a move to deny the Kremlin revenue it needs to fund the war against Ukraine, the G-7 leaders are expected to announce further punitive sanctions against Moscow during the summit by imposing a ban on Russian gold imports."The action taken to stop buying Russian gold is one small step in the right direction," Schott noted, adding it would help starve the Russian economy of the things that could be sold abroad.The restrictions on Russian exports of gold is worth about $15 billion a year to Moscow, Creon Butler, director of economy and finance program at Chatham House, told CNBC on Monday."That's potentially quite significant," he said, but highlighted that's not something that will necessarily get a buy-in from all the nations in the G-7. "That illustrates the problem. There are a number of concrete things they can do, but whether they can pull off a unified G-7 approach — let alone bringing in other countries, I think this is going to be a challenge," Butler added.— CNBC's Matt Cinch and Sam Meredith contributed to this report. | Global Organizations |
The UK and Portugal have today signed an agreement on the mutual recognition and exchange of driving licences.
An agreement that will ensure continued recognition of UK driving licences in Portugal and an ability to exchange for a Portuguese licence without taking a test has been signed today, the British Embassy in Lisbon has announced.
The agreement was signed by British Ambassador to Portugal, Chris Sainty, and the Portuguese Ambassador to the UK, Nuno Brito, at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office in London.
The agreement, once it enters into force, will enable holders of driving licences issued in the United Kingdom and in Gibraltar to continue to drive in Portugal on their existing licence until it expires, provided they register their Portuguese address with the licensing authority.
The agreement also provides the ability for UK and Gibraltar licence holders to exchange their licence for a Portuguese equivalent, without needing to sit a theory or practical test. There is provision for the exchange of expired licences, as long as the licence expired not more than two years before being presented for exchange, as well as for lost and stolen licences, subject to domestic procedures, the embassy explains.
It adds that the new agreement builds on existing arrangements to provide guaranteed and uniform treatment for all UK licence holders, as well as those issued in Gibraltar. The agreement is reciprocal, with Portuguese licences recognised for driving in the UK and Gibraltar and exchangeable without a test if the holder becomes resident.
The agreement will now proceed to the ratification stage in both the UK and Portugal, with the intention that it can take effect at the beginning of 2024.
“I am delighted that we have reached agreement with Portugal that will mean UK licence holders resident here can use their UK licence for the duration of its validity and, if and when necessary, exchange it for a Portuguese one without needing to take any driving test. This allows a level playing field for all UK and Gibraltar licence holders to continue driving lawfully and guarantees recognition and exchange rights for all,” said British Ambassador to Portugal, Chris Sainty.
“The agreement was reached after an extended period of technical negotiations between London and Lisbon, with the continued and active cooperation of the Portuguese Government and the Institute of Mobility and Transport (IMT), to whom I would like to express my gratitude. The result is an agreement that simplifies driving requirements for UK and Portuguese licence holders travelling, working and living in each of our countries, demonstrating a shared commitment to our deep and enduring people-to-people links.”
Mr Sainty added: “We are now working hard with the Portuguese Government to bring the agreement into effect as quickly as possible, replacing the existing interim arrangements. We will provide further updates in due course via our Living in Portugal Guide on the GOV.UK website, as well as through the Embassy’s social media channels.” | United Kingdom Politics |
ELMAU, Germany (AP) — President Joe Biden said Sunday that the United States and other Group of Seven leading economies will ban imports of gold from Russia, the latest in a series of sanctions that the club of democracies hopes will further isolate Russia economically over its invasion of Ukraine.A formal announcement was expected Tuesday as the leaders hold their annual summit.Biden and his counterparts will huddle on the summit’s opening day Sunday to discuss how to secure energy supplies and tackle inflation, aiming to keep the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from splintering the global coalition working to punish Moscow.Hours before the summit was to formally open, Russia launched missile strikes against the Ukrainian capital Sunday, striking at least two residential buildings, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. They were the first such strikes by Russia in three weeks.Senior Biden administration officials said gold is Moscow’s second largest export after energy, and that banning imports would make it more difficult for Russia to participate in global markets. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details before the announcement.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the ban on Russian gold will “directly hit Russian oligarchs and strike at the heart of Putin’s war machine,” a reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin.“Putin is squandering his dwindling resources on this pointless and barbaric war. He is bankrolling his ego at the expense of both the Ukrainian and Russian people,” Johnson said. “We need to starve the Putin regime of its funding.”German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, left, welcomes U.S. President Joe Biden, right, for a bilateral meeting at Castle Elmau in Kruen, near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, on Sunday, June 26, 2022. The Group of Seven leading economic powers are meeting in Germany for their annual gathering Sunday through Tuesday. (Leonhard Foeger/Pool Photo via AP)Leonhard Foeger via APIn recent years, gold has been the top Russian export after energy — reaching almost $19 billion or about 5% of global gold exports, in 2020, according to the White House.Of Russian gold exports, 90% was consigned to G-7 countries. Of these Russian exports, over 90%, or nearly $17 billion, was exported to the UK. The United States imported less than $200 million in gold from Russia in 2019, and under $1 million in 2020 and 2021.Biden arrived in Germany’s picturesque Bavarian alps early Sunday to join his counterparts for the annual meeting of the world’s leading democratic economies. Reverberations from the brutal war in Ukraine will be front and center of their discussions. Biden and the allies aim to present a united front in support of Ukraine as the conflict enters its fourth month.Unity was the message Biden took into a pre-summit sit-down with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who holds the G-7′s rotating presidency and is hosting the gathering.“We’ve got to make sure we have us all staying together. You know, we’re gonna continue working on economic challenges that we face but I think we get through all this,” Biden said.Scholz replied that the “good message” is that “we all made it to stay united, which Putin never expected,” a reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin.“We have to stay together, because Putin has been counting on, from the beginning, that somehow NATO and the G7 would splinter, but we haven’t and we’re not going to,” Biden said. “We can’t let this aggression take the form it has and get away with it.”Biden and the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, plus the European Union, were spending Sunday in both formal and informal settings, including working sessions on dealing with the war’s effects on the global economy, including inflation, and on infrastructure.Among the issues to be discussed are price caps on energy, which are meant to limit Russian oil and gas profits that Moscow can put to use in its war effort. The idea has been championed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.A senior German official, speaking on condition of anonymity consistent with department rules, said the U.S. idea of price caps was being discussed intensely, in terms of how it would work and how it would fit with the U.S., EU, British, Canadian and Japanese sanctions regimes.Officials were also set to discuss how to maintain commitments to addressing climate change while also solving critical energy supply needs as a result of the war.“There’s no watering down of climate commitments,” John Kirby, a spokesman for Biden’s National Security Council, said Saturday as the president flew to Germany.Biden is also set Sunday to formally launch a global infrastructure partnership designed to counter China’s influence in the developing world. He had named it “Build Back Better World” and introduced the program at last year’s G-7 summit.Kirby said Biden and other leaders would announce the first projects to benefit from what the U.S. sees as an “alternative to infrastructure models that sell debt traps to low- and middle-income partner countries, and advance U.S. economic competitiveness and our national security.”After the G-7 wraps up on Tuesday, Biden will travel to Madrid for a summit of the leaders of the 30 members of NATO to align strategy on the war in Ukraine.___Superville reported from Telfs, Austria. Associated Press writers Jill Lawless in London contributed to this report. | Global Organizations |
Pubs are calling for more flexible licensing laws during national events, such as Sunday's Women's World Cup final.
The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) said the current rules were "far too prescriptive" when it came to one-off events of national interest.
As a result, many pubs had to wait until the second half of the game to be able to serve alcohol.
The government said it keeps licencing laws "under review".
Ahead of Sunday's match, which saw England's Lionesses defeated by Spain, pubs had called for rules to be relaxed to allow venues to serve drinks from 10:00 BST, before the game began.
The laws meant many were unable to serve alcoholic drinks until 11:00, with some being restricted until midday, according to the BBPA, which is an industry body.
Temporary blanket tweaks to licensing laws that apply in England and Wales for special events have to be approved by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords under the Licensing Act 2003.
But with Parliament in recess, it would've required the government to recall MPs to make the change ahead of Sunday's final.
The government instead urged councils to speed up applications for temporary notices, allowing individual pubs to vary their hours.
The BBPA said that while it welcomed the government's efforts, many pubs still faced major restrictions on serving alcohol at the start or even during the game.
Its chief executive, Emma McClarkin, said there needed to be an amendment to the Licensing Act 2003 to reflect the need for blanket licensing changes during national moments like the final.
"Despite the government's valuable work encouraging local authorities to support pubs on Sunday, we now need the law to reflect the reality that strict, prescriptive licensing cannot easily flex when key events are taking place while Parliament is not sitting," she said.
Ms McClarkin said the Licensing Act "was never intended to be so inflexible as to stand in the way of communities coming together to enjoy a beer and celebrate one-off events of national interest".
She urged MPs to work with the industry to get an amendment quickly agreed.
A Home Office spokesperson said: "The government can already relax licensing hours for an occasion of exceptional international, national, or local significance. "We keep the law under review and work closely with the licensed sector to ensure the regime remains fit for purpose and meets emerging challenges."
World Cup boost
Despite the licensing difficulties, pubs still enjoyed a World Cup final boost to sales, the BBPA said.
Millions of people headed to their local pubs to watch the match on Sunday.
The BBPA said pubs across the country reported trading increases of between 14% and 28%, according to early indications.
Clair Preston-Beer, managing director at Greene King pubs, said customers came to its outlets to enjoy the game and soak up the atmosphere.
"We experienced a 142% increase in total drinks sales compared to this time last year across our Greene King Sport pubs during the match," she said. | United Kingdom Politics |
JOHANNESBURG, July 19 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the summit of the BRICS group of nations in South Africa in August "by mutual agreement", South Africa's presidency said on Wednesday.
Russia will be represented by its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead, the presidency said in a statement.
South Africa faced a dilemma in hosting the summit because, as a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), it would theoretically be required to arrest Putin for alleged war crimes if he were to attend.
The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin.
The leaders of Brazil, India, China and South Africa will attend the summit, the presidency said.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Global Organizations |
International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva meets Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, December 8, 2021. REUTERS/ Hereward Holland/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comNUSA DUA, Indonesia, July 16 (Reuters) - IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva on Saturday warned officials from the Group of 20 major economies to take urgent action to combat inflation, warning that the "exceptionally uncertain" global economic outlook could turn worse if higher prices persisted.Georgieva, speaking at a G20 finance officials meeting in Indonesia, said Russia's intensifying war in Ukraine had increased pressure on commodity and energy prices, and global financial conditions were tightening more than expected.At the same time, pandemic-related disruptions and renewed supply chain bottlenecks continued to weigh on economic activity.Pressure was mounting on heavily-indebted countries, and the debt situation was "deteriorating fast," she said, according to a text of her remarks.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Andrea Shalal. Editing by Jane MerrimanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Global Organizations |
It is Germany’s turn to host the annual summit of G7 leaders this year and while the war in Ukraine will be top of the agenda at the gathering in Bavaria the economic damage caused by Russia’s invasion will come a close second.Nobody saw what was coming when the G7 last met in Cornwall a year ago. Back then the talk was of global post-pandemic recovery; now the fear is of imminent recession as central banks turn hawkish and Vladimir Putin plays the energy card.The Kremlin has cut supplies of gas through the NordStream pipeline by 60% in the past two weeks and alarm bells are ringing in Berlin as the downside of being so dependent on Russian energy becomes apparent. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s new chancellor, is in the unfortunate position of having to clear up a mess caused by his predecessor, Angela Merkel, a politician whose reputation will certainly not improve with time.Last week, the German government triggered the second stage of an emergency gas plan. There is no rationing as yet but such a step is possible, as is the re-opening of coal-fired power stations. One of Germany’s goals for the G7 is “strong alliances for a sustainable planet”, which sits oddly with German energy companies being told to get ready to burn more coal this winter.As far as the G7 is concerned, the wheel has turned full circle. The first meeting of the group (which then included only six countries) was held in France in 1975 as the big western economies struggled to find a response to the oil shock that had put an end to the long post second world war boom. Now all of them once again face the prospect of recession.The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 points earlier this month and has signalled further such increases are on the way. Its chairman, Jerome Powell, said recession was a possibility when he gave testimony to Congress last week. That’s some admission. The outlook has to be pretty grim before a central banker uses the R word, but Powell made it clear when faced with the choice between recession and embedded inflation he would choose the former.The Bank of England is also tightening policy. Compared with the Fed, Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee is moving in baby steps, so far raising interest rates in 0.25 percentage point increments. It is doing so against the backdrop of an economy which, despite the continued strength of the labour market, appears to be slowing rapidly. The Bank is trying to engineer a soft landing for the economy in which inflation – currently 9.1% – falls back towards its 2% government target without triggering a recession. Good luck with that.The European Central Bank has not yet joined other western central banks in raising rates, although it has signalled higher borrowing costs are coming next month. Its cautious approach is unsurprising because the stakes for the eurozone are especially high. If the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England make a hash of responding to the highest inflation in 40 years the consequence will be needless economic pain. If the ECB gets it wrong, the future of the single currency will once again be put in doubt.Europe is vulnerable to a prolonged war in Ukraine. It was growing less strongly than the US before the invasion, in part because the fiscal package – tax cuts and spending increases – in America was greater. Unemployment is higher, and unlike the US the EU is not self-sufficient in energy. Europe is closer to the fighting and has suffered more of a supply shock as a result of the conflict.That’s one reason for the ECB to be careful. Another is the impact tougher monetary policy – higher interest rates and a reversal of the money creation programme known as quantitative easing – will have on the eurozone’s weaker members.Monetary union is an unfinished project. Member states share the same currency but run their own tax and spending policies (subject to certain common rules), and issue their own bonds when they borrow from the financial markets. The interest rate – or yield – on Italian bonds is higher than that on German bonds because investors see Italy as riskier than Germany.Since the ECB signalled it would join other central banks in raising interest rates the gap (or spread) has widened between German bond yields and those of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Investors are worried about how these countries will cope with higher borrowing costs and slower growth.Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDeskA decade ago Italian and Spanish bond yields reached levels that called into question whether the eurozone would splinter into a hard core based around Germany and a softer outer ring. On that occasion, the then head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, pledged he would do “whatever it takes” to safeguard the single currency. It did the trick.Now Christine Lagarde, Draghi’s successor, faces the same fragmentation problem. At 8.1%, the eurozone’s inflation rate is much too high for the ECB’s comfort. The question is how to raise borrowing costs without causing such damage to the weaker members of the eurozone that their bond yields rocket.The ECB has pledged to come up with an anti-fragmentation device under which the central bank would ensure bond yields in heavily indebted countries, such as Italy, don’t rise excessively. This, though, is not going to be easy. Scholz will have trouble selling a bond-buying scheme to a sceptical German public, especially since it could lead to losses as interest rates rise. Time is not on Lagarde’s side and if she gets it wrong the next unwelcome shock to the global economy will be a eurozone crisis. | Europe Politics |
TELFS, Austria — As President Joe Biden sets off to meet with world leaders in Europe next week, his top domestic priority of inflation will remain high on the agenda amid fears the global economy could tip into a recession as war rages on in Ukraine. The G7 summit in the Bavarian Alps that begins Sunday will give Biden an opportunity to huddle with leaders of the wealthiest democracies on ways to ease rising prices globally while continuing to put pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including avenues to boost global energy production and a potential price cap on Russian oil or gas exports. The meeting with the leaders comes at a crucial time for Biden, as Democrats enter the summer fighting to hold on to control of Congress in the midterm elections and some economists and Biden’s own Federal Reserve chair predicting the U.S. could slip into a recession later this year or next. The trip offers Biden an opportunity to make the case to voters back home that he’s pushing to address the economic pressures they're facing. “We expect that the global economy is going to be a very key point of discussion among the G7 leaders,” a senior administration official said. “I think that there’s going to be a lot of focus on what are the steps each country is taking domestically, what steps can be taken together in order to address the pressures that we’re seeing on the energy security front, in order to address the challenges that we’re seeing around food security, including for a number of lower income and vulnerable countries.”The meeting in Germany is part of a wider stretch of international travel for Biden, who prides himself on his foreign policy skills after decades on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. After Germany, will also directly go to Spain to meet with NATO leaders and head to Israel and Saudi Arabia in July. The trip follows stops in May in Japan and South Korea. The G7 summit will include the leaders of Canada, Japan, the U.K., Italy, France and Germany, which combined with the U.S. make up half of the global economy.While prices in the U.S. are rising faster than those of the other G7 countries, inflation has been a concern globally as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. Developing countries have been hit particularly hard, with inflation in Estonia topping 20 percent, Sri Lanka defaulting on its debt, and Pakistan at risk of economic collapse. China’s economic growth has also slowed following months of rolling Covid lockdowns.Along with a focus on the economy, the G7 countries also plan to announce new steps to increase pressure on Russia and show support for Ukraine along with broader efforts to “advance a vision of the world grounded in freedom and openness, not coercion, not aggression, not spheres of influence,” said a senior administration official. “There’s some pretty significant headwinds here. You have Ukraine bogged down, you’ve got inflation raging, a series of crises from food to energy to helping the climate, so this is going to be a pretty challenging set of meetings,” said Matt Goodman, senior vice president for economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At home, Biden has acknowledged there is little he can do in the near term to help with rising gas and food prices, and he has been unable to get Congress to act on legislation he says would help struggling consumers by lowering prescription drug prices and providing clean energy tax credits.Biden called on Congress Wednesday to enact a three-month gas tax holiday, a measure that is unlikely to get enough votes to pass and signals the few tools he has left to address high gas prices.The president has increasingly tried to make the case to American consumers of the highest inflation in 40 years and record gas prices are a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and oil companies profiteering from the war as Republicans try to pin the blame on his policies.“Defending freedom, defending democracy was not going to go without cost for the American people and the rest of the free world,” Biden said in remarks from the White House on gas prices Wednesday.“We cut off Russian oil into the United States and our partners in Europe did the same knowing that we would see higher gas prices,” Biden said. “We could have turned a blind eye to Putin’s murderous ways. The price of gas wouldn’t have spiked the way it has. I believe that would have been wrong. I believed that then, and I believe it now. The free world had no choice.”Officials with the G7 countries have been meeting ahead of the summit in Germany to work on a coordinated response to tamp down inflation by raising interest rates in hopes of cooling off the economy just enough to stem price increases while avoiding a global recession.Among the economic topics leaders are expected to discuss are ways to increase available oil while at the same time continuing to put pressure on Russia.“If there’s one thing these G7 leaders can do, it’s how do we bring more oil to the market, especially if we’re going to continue to restrict Russian oil,” said Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Another step being considered by Biden to try to lower costs for consumers is lifting all or some of the $350 billion in tariffs the Trump administration placed on Chinese imports. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who has been a critic of the Trump-era tariffs, said during a congressional hearing earlier this month that some reductions may be warranted, but cautioned that the effects on consumer prices wouldn’t be “a panacea with respect to inflation.”While the war in Ukraine has been a major contributor to rising energy and food prices, G7 leaders have shown no signs of wavering on their pressure campaign against Russia, though inflation will likely play a role in their decisions on steps going forward, said Goodman.“It does have an impact on whether this group, and particularly I think President Biden, are going to be willing to consider potential new sanctions that could further exacerbate price increases,” he said. “I think, to the extent they do take further action, they’re going to be looking at things that don’t have that effect.”During a meeting in May of the G7 finance ministers, officials said they planned to continue to reduce oil imports, in line with an approach taken by the European Union of phasing out Russian oil by the end of the year. One strategy G7 countries have been discussing to mitigate the effect that would have on inflation would be agreeing on a price cap on Russia energy exports that would set a limit on how much countries would pay for Russian oil or gas. But there are indications the shunning of Russian oil hasn’t had its intended effect. Despite efforts by countries like the U.S. and Canada to punish Russia by cutting off oil imports, Russia has taken in a record amount of revenue since the start of the war due to the spike in oil prices, according to a report by the Center for Clean Energy and Fresh Air. “We expect Ukraine to be at the very front of conversations” at the G7 meeting, said the senior administration official. “And we expect to roll out a concrete set of proposals to increase the pressure on Russia to support Ukraine during the course of the summit.” | Global Organizations |
The Russian foreign minister left the G20 meeting of leading economies early after telling his counterparts that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was not responsible for a global hunger crisis and that sanctions designed to isolate Russia amounted to a declaration of war.The gathering on Friday was Sergei Lavrov’s first direct confrontation with leaders from the west since Russia mounted its attack on Ukraine, and he accused the west of frenzied criticism of what he claimed were Moscow’s justified actions.In a stern if brief lecture at the meeting in Bali hosted by Indonesia, this year’s chair of the G20, Lavrov said: “If the west doesn’t want talks to take place but wishes for Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield – because both views have been expressed – then perhaps there is nothing to talk about with the west.”Lavrov, sitting at the meeting between Saudi Arabia and Mexico, also accused the west of pressing Ukraine to “use its weapons” in the fighting. He walked out at the point when the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, was starting to speak.Afterwards he said he had come to Bali to get an impression “of how the west breathes”. It had been obvious that the west did not use the G20 for the purposes for which it was created, Lavrov said. Participants from developing countries did not support this approach, he claimed.“Aggressors, invaders, occupants. We’ve heard quite a few such things today,” he said while describing the speeches made by his western counterparts. He said some of the speeches were made for theatrical effect, citing Boris Johnson as a prime example. “Well, he resigned, and so be it,” Lavrov said. “Everyone said Russia must be isolated. But so far his own party has isolated Boris Johnson.”Much of the meeting and discussions on the sidelines were taken up with efforts to persuade Russia to allow the export of stockpiles of Ukrainian grain through an independently policed safe naval corridor in the Black Sea. But talks, largely led by Turkey and the UN, have been continuing for weeks with no breakthrough.Lavrov said: “Ukraine should end the blockade of its ports, demine them or ensure passage through the minefields.”After that, Russia and Turkey would ensure the safety of the cargo ships outside Ukrainian sovereign territory so they could proceed further into the Mediterranean. But a meeting in Bali between Lavrov and the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, did not lead to any immediate breakthrough.Lavrov denied the dispute was a central factor in the broader global grain shortage, saying the blockaded grain accounted for 1% of global supply.Western diplomats say Russia sees stealing Ukrainian grain, and blocking its exports, as measures designed to weaken the Ukrainian economy and increase the cost for the west of subsidising the struggling country. At a plenary session, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, urged Moscow to let Ukrainian grain out to the world.An official said Blinken addressed Russia directly, saying: “To our Russian colleagues: Ukraine is not your country. Its grain is not your grain. Why are you blocking the ports? You should let the grain out.”Lavrov again said Russia could not export its own grain because of western sanctions, for example because ships were not insured or could not call at foreign ports.The EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, hit back by saying there were no EU sanctions on food. Western leaders refused to join a group photo with Lavrov but said their presence at the meeting, as opposed to a boycott, showed a greater willingness to make their argument rather than assume other neutral states side with them.Baerbock, for instance, said before the meeting: “I am here as German foreign minister with my European colleagues to demonstrate that we will not leave the international stage to Russia.”Sign up to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday morning at 7am BSTLavrov will have been most closely noting the attitude not of the west but of the other major powers such as China, Saudi Arabia and India. Lavrov met the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, telling him about “the implementation of the main missions of the special military operation” in Ukraine and repeating the Kremlin’s rhetoric that its aim was to “denazify” the country.Lavrov’s visit to Bali was also intended to prepare for a possible trip by Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in November. It is unclear whether Putin will attend in person or via video.The UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, left the meeting early to return to London to campaign for the premiership. She left a Foreign Office official, Sir Tim Barrow, to represent the UK. | Global Organizations |
FILE PHOTO - European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell talks during an interview at the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, July 8, 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/Pool
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comJuly 31 (Reuters) - The European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Sunday welcomed the Kosovo government's move to delay its plan to require Serbs to register for new license plates issued by Pristina to Sept 1.Kosovo postponed implementation of a decision that would oblige Serbs in the north of the country to apply for car license plates issued by Pristina institutions over tensions between police and local communities that set up roadblocks. read more "Expect all roadblocks to be removed immediately," Borrell said in a tweet, adding that open issues should be addressed through EU-facilitated dialogue and focus on comprehensive normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Maria Ponnezhath in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Europe Politics |
Our familiar system of global political and economic alliances is shifting, and nothing has made this change clearer than the varied reactions to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While the United States and its closest allies in Europe and Asia have imposed tough economic sanctions on Moscow, 87 percent of the world's population has declined to follow us. Economic sanctions have united our adversaries in shared resistance. Less predictably, the outbreak of Cold War II, has also led countries that were once partners or non-aligned to become increasingly multi-aligned.Nowhere is the shift more apparent than in energy markets where, unlike with currencies, governments cannot simply print what they need. Here the web of sanctions becomes a sieve.
An immigration inspection officer checks an oil tanker carrying imported crude oil at Qingdao port in China's eastern Shandong province on May 9, 2022.
STR/AFP via Getty Images
Saudi Arabia, long a committed American partner, has established a close alliance with Russia in the OPEC Plus cartel. The Saudis have very publicly declined the request of an American president to increase oil production. Instead, they imported Russian oil for domestic use to export more of their own production. Last week they even reduced production and made clear they may do so again.China is selling Europe liquid natural gas (LNG) that originated in Siberia while importing Russian oil at the same time. It then refines and exports the oil.Meanwhile, kept solvent by Chinese oil purchases, Iran has become the largest customer for Russian wheat.India's petroleum minister has stated publicly that his government has no conflict with Moscow and a "moral duty" to keep down energy prices at home by buying Russian oil.Alliances that were created in part to counter Western economic and political influence are expanding. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have announced their interest in joining the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The Shanghai Cooperative Organization currently links China, Russia, India, and Pakistan, among others. Iran plans to join this month while Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are likely to become "dialogue partners," or candidate members.Additionally, China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is tying many African nations to Beijing with cords of trade and debt. Russia is also reaching out in the form of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who recently addressed his 22 Arab League counterparts in Cairo before touring a number of African countries. If that's not enough to give the West pause, Moscow is again on the offensive in Latin America, strengthening its military relationships with Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba. The two powerhouses of that region, Brazil and Mexico, have pointedly refused to back Western sanctions against Russia.The dollar's reserve currency status remains a pillar of the global economic order, but trust in that order has been damaged. Economic sanctions have weaponized parts of the international banking and insurance sectors including the SWIFT fund transfer system. Assets have been seized and commodity contracts canceled. Calls for de-dollarization have become louder. When Russia demanded energy payments in rubles, yuan or UAE Dirhams, China and India complied.Many Asian economies are now being hit by both rising oil prices and the depreciation of their own currency against the dollar. As a result, they are expanding their use of bilateral currency swaps which allow them to trade among themselves in their own currencies. Eighty years ago the British pound lost its preeminent position among the world's currencies. This is precisely what America's adversaries are trying to do to the dollar and if the Saudis ever stop pricing oil in dollars, they may very well succeed.Globalization can function only if most participants believe it advances their interests. If the rest believe the West is unfairly using the system for its own benefit, the rules- based international order falls apart and alternatives will emerge.Today, inflationary pressures and recession fears stalk much of the world. While the wealthy West can afford the cost of sanctions, much of the rest cannot. Europe now competes with the likes of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Thailand for energy shipments. In North Africa and the Middle East, energy and food shortages have raised the prospect of political unrest similar to the Arab Spring.These concerns are generating considerable anti-Western sentiment across much of the Global South. While a nuclear-armed Russia shows no willingness to end a war its leaders cannot afford to lose; the West is rapidly losing the rest and thus undermining the very rules-based international order it has sought to create. Our most promising solution to this dilemma is likely to be some sort of diplomatic compromise.David H. Rundell is the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads and a former Chief of Mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former Political Advisor to the U.S. Central Command.The views expressed in this article are the writers' own. | Global Organizations |
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden will make his first trip to the Middle East next month with visits to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia, the White House announced Tuesday.The decision to pay a call on Saudi leaders during the July 13-16 trip comes after Biden as a Democratic presidential candidate branded the kingdom a “pariah” because of its human rights record and pledged to recalibrate the U.S.-Saudi relationship.Biden plans to meet with the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the kingdom, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity. U.S. intelligence officials determined Prince Mohammed likely ordered the brutal 2018 killing of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. After Biden took office, his administration made clear the president would avoid direct engagement with the crown prince and instead focus his engagements with King Salman.Human rights advocates and some Democratic allies cautioned Biden about visiting the oil-rich kingdom, saying such a visit without first getting human rights commitments would send a message to Saudi leaders that there are no consequences for egregious rights violations. The Saudis have been accused of using of mass arrests, executions and violence to squelch dissent.But at a time of skyrocketing prices at the gas pump, growing worries about Iran's nuclear program and perpetual concern that China is expanding its global footprint, Biden and his national security team have determined that freezing out the Saudis, particularly the crown prince, is simply not in the U.S. interest.The White House announced the trip after Saudi Arabia this month helped nudge OPEC+ to ramp up oil production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, and the kingdom agreed to extend a United Nations-mediated cease-fire in its seven-year war with Yemen. Biden called the Saudi cease-fire decision “courageous.” Prince Mohammed, who is commonly referred to by his initials, MBS, played a “critical role” in brokering an extension of the cease-fire, according to the administration official.White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in a statement announcing the Middle East trip said King Salman invited Biden to visit the kingdom during a gathering in the port city of Jeddah of the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — as well as Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.“While in Saudi Arabia, the President will also discuss a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues with his counterparts. These include support to the UN-mediated truce in Yemen, which has led to the most peaceful period there since war began seven years ago,” Jean-Pierre said. “He will also discuss means for expanding regional economic and security cooperation, including new and promising infrastructure and climate initiatives, as well as deterring threats from Iran, advancing human rights, and ensuring global energy and food security.”Biden's first stop during the Middle East swing will be in Israel for a long-planned visit with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Jerusalem. He will then meet with Palestinian Authority leaders, including Mahmoud Abbas, in the West Bank. Biden will cap the whirlwind trip with the visit to Jeddah for the meeting of GCC leaders and talks with King Salman, the crown prince and other Saudi officials.The trip to Israel comes at a fraught time for Bennett's fragile coalition, as he tries to avert another election and the potential return to power of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as Iran's nuclear program continues advancing.Biden's time in Israel coincides with the Maccabiah Games, a sporting competition that brings together thousands of Jewish and Israeli athletes from around the globe. Biden, who visited Israel for the first time as a young senator nearly 50 years ago, is also expected to meet with athletes taking part in the games.Israeli officials in their engagement with the Biden administration have pressed their point of view that U.S. relations with Arab capitals, including Riyadh, are critical to Israel’s security and overall stability in the region. The visit could also provide an opportunity to kick off talks for what the administration sees as a longer-term project of normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations.Facing questions earlier this month about a potential visit to Saudi Arabia, Biden stressed that the relationship had multiple facets that impact U.S. and Middle East security.“Look, I’m not going to change my view on human rights,” Biden said. “But as president of the United States, my job is to bring peace if I can, peace if I can. And that’s what I’m going to try to do.” | Middle East Politics |
A major EU environmental policy could become a test of the Stormont brake, new analysis has suggested.
The brake is a key part of Northern Ireland's Brexit deal, known as the Windsor Framework.
It effectively gives the Northern Ireland Assembly a conditional veto on new EU rules applying here.
University of Sussex academics say the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) would be considered a new rule and so bring the brake into play.
However, a UK government source has said that while a cross-community Stormont vote would be needed to add the CBAM to the framework, it would not involve the specific Stormont Brake mechanism.
In any case, Stormont would have to be sitting for politicians here to have a formal say.
Northern Ireland has been without a functioning government since February 2022 when the DUP walked out of the first minister role in protest against the earlier Brexit deal, known as the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The brake can be triggered if 30 members of the Assembly object to a new EU rule being applied in Northern Ireland.
The UK government has said the mechanism cannot be used for "trivial" reasons and that there would need to be a clear demonstration that the rule being challenged would have a "significant" impact on everyday life in Northern Ireland.
If the brake is used under those conditions, the EU law in question would automatically be suspended within a maximum period of four weeks, ahead of further independent arbitration with the EU.
Consultative mechanisms in the Windsor Framework are also supposed to mean that the EU and UK resolve issues around new rules so minimising the risk that the brake will have to be used.
Academics at the University of Sussex Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy have been looking at how the EU's CBAM policy could interact with the Windsor Framework.
The CBAM is effectively a carbon or fossil fuel tax on imported goods like steel, cement and fertiliser.
It is being introduced to ensure that European industry, which has to pay for permits to use carbon, can compete fairly in the manufacturing of those goods.
The EU is set to start the transitional phase of the CBAM in October before it becomes fully operational in 2026. It has not yet officially said if they believe the CBAM should be incorporated into the Windsor Framework.
'Significant impact' on NI
A UK government spokesperson said it was assessing the potential impact of the law and that it wants to "ensure that clean power generated in the UK can be traded efficiently".
"It's important that the EU CBAM reflects how cross-border electricity trading works in practice.
"For CBAM to apply in Northern Ireland it would need to be agreed to by the UK government, as required under the Windsor Framework."
The Sussex academics, Xinyan Zhao and Dongzhe Zhang, have said that, assuming the EU wants to apply the CBAM in Northern Ireland, it would have "a significant economic impact".
They have suggested it could have implications for trade both from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and from Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland.
"If the EU considers that Great British goods may move to the EU through the checkpoint-less Northern Ireland border after entering Northern Ireland to circumvent the EU CBAM, the EU could argue for imposing CBAM measures on these goods at the Irish Sea border," they said.
This could apply to both goods produced in Great Britain and those from third countries.
They say issues could also arise with north-south trade because goods manufactured using electricity bought from the Northern Ireland's retail electricity market are subject to the UK's carbon price rather than the EU's.
The academics added that it is currently unclear how the European Commission will deal with this issue.
They concluded that the only way to implement CBAM in Northern Ireland that would not negatively affect imports is for the UK and EU to relink their carbon pricing schemes and for the UK to establish an EU-style CBAM.
They said that would mean the UK and EU measuring the carbon content of imports in a consistent manner and having Northern Ireland importers be exempted from the EU CBAM tariffs at Northern Ireland ports.
It's understood that UK officials are continuing to monitor the details of the EU CBAM as its implementation progresses, noting that the EU have said the transitional period will involve continued consultation with stakeholders including international partners. | Europe Politics |
Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has told how her stance on independence has “moved”, as she said she can no longer make the case for staying in the UK with the same strength as she did in the run-up to the 2014 referendum.
Dugdale said while she feels Scots will get to have a second vote on the future of the UK, she does not believe another referendum will take place within the next decade.
“I don’t think either the Labour Party or the Conservative Government will concede a referendum,” the former politician said.
Asked directly how she will vote if there is another ballot on independence, Dugdale said she will “decide at the time”.
Dugdale, who is married to SNP MSP and Scottish Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth, spent eight years as a Labour MSP and led the party in Scotland between 2015 and 2017.
However she has not been a member of Labour for three years, citing her pro-European politics as the reason for quitting.
Despite this, she said she “desperately” wants Sir Keir Starmer to win the next general election “because I want the Tories out of office”.
Dugdale, now director of the John Smith Centre at the University of Glasgow and also a professor of practice in public service at the university, was speaking during an event at the Edinburgh International Book Festival.
While she stressed she is now outside of party politics, she said: “If you are presented with a binary choice between an independent Scotland in a progressive Europe or little Boris Brexit Britain, I know where my cards would fall down.
“I also know I couldn’t argue with the same strength for the union that I did in 2014 now.
“That doesn’t mean I’m ready to vote Yes, there are big, big questions we need to debate as a country and resolve.
“So I have moved… we have to keep talking about some of these big issues in the country, but not just purely through that Yes/No lens.”
Dugdale also spoke about the need for more social housing, saying: “For me we have to build more houses if we have got any hope to eradicate poverty and inequality.”
She backed calls made by the SNP for the Scottish Parliament to be given powers over immigration and employment legislation.
She told the event: “I want to see a Scottish Parliament with greatly more powers than it has just now. I was arguing back in 2012 for the Scottish Parliament to have powers over things like employment legislation. I lost that argument then.
“For me it is an absolute no-brainer that the Scottish Parliament should have employment and immigration powers now, immediately.”
However speaking during a visit to Glasgow on Thursday, Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner dismissed calls for employment law to be devolved, saying she wants “employment law across the whole of the United Kingdom to be uplifted and better” under a future Labour government. | United Kingdom Politics |
The UK is offering its expertise to help escort Ukraine’s grain from its ports under a UN plan designed to prevent a mass famine across Africa, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said in Ankara on Thursday after meeting Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.Turkey has been trying to negotiate the terms of an escort for more than 20m tonnes of urgently needed Ukrainian grain, but Çavuşoğlu admitted he had not been able to secure a date for a meeting between Ukraine and Russia – a sign that an agreement on safe passage for the convoy has not been reached.Russia is demanding the lifting of sanctions on Russian shipping in return for allowing the convoys to leave the Ukrainian port of Odesa and head through the Black Sea.Truss said: It’s very clear that Ukrainian ports must be protected. There needs to be safe passage for commercial vessels. And the United Kingdom is offering our expertise on all of those fronts to make sure that we have the measures in place so that grain can safely leave but it is going to require an international effort.”No agreement has yet been reached on the details of how the grain convoys would be inspected to ensure they were not carrying arms for Ukraine. It has been accepted that the ships technically can safely leave the heavily mined ports by establishing safe routes through the mines. Previously it had been thought the mines would need clearing.Truss said the UK supported the plan for a UN resolution to legitimise the convoy, but added: “Russia cannot be allowed to delay and prevaricate. It’s urgent that action is taken within the next month ahead of the new harvest.” The impasse has meant Ukraine’s existing silos are full and subject to attack by Russian missiles. Turkey has been offering to run a control centre in Istanbul from which the convoy operation could be jointly policed.“Putin is weaponizing hunger, he’s using food security as a callous tool of war,” Truss said. “He’s blocked Ukrainian ports, and is stopping 20m tonnes of grain being exported across the globe, holding the world to ransom.”Failure to reach an agreement would have devastating consequences, she said, a reference to droughts that are already afflicting sub-Saharan Africa. A special food summit is due to be held in Rome on Friday as the west and Russia spar over responsibility for the grain blockade.Sign up to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday morning at 7am BSTThe UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, is also in Turkey to discuss the British contribution to any convoy plan, as well to persuade Turkey to lift its current block on Sweden and Finland joining Nato over what Turkey categorises as a soft line on Turkish Kurdish terrorists operating in their countries.So far there has been no breakthrough on the issue, although Turkey is pleased that a special session on threats to Nato on its southern flank will be included at the Nato summit, providing an opportunity for Turkey to raise the issue.Çavuşoğlu said Sweden had provided papers to Turkey on what it was prepared to do to block the financing of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) from Sweden. The PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state since the 80s and is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and the EU.The UK is a close ally of Turkey, and is trying to use its influence to persuade Ankara to shelve its objections to Swedish membership. Truss said Nato’s open-door policy must remain sacrosanct adding: “This is a moment for strength for commitment, and unity.” | United Kingdom Politics |
Are Conservative members in revolt against their own party? One sitting MP who has recently been warned he potentially faces being deposed by his local association before the next election fears it could be the case.
“We’re not generally an activist bunch, deselecting people,” the MP lamented. “It’s just not the Tory way – we like to leave all that to Labour.”
The MP wants to remain anonymous for now, hoping the selection committee meeting will go their way. But for three sitting Tories the axe has already fallen, most notably Damian Green, once Theresa May’s deputy prime minister but now at grave risk of being left seatless.
There are obvious perils in divining a pattern from such a handful of cases, and some party veterans insist the recent rejection of Green, plus that of two 2019-intake MPs, Theo Clarke and Sally-Ann Hart, is nothing more than business as usual in a party just as brutal as Labour in such matters, if just usually quieter about it.
But there are several new factors in play. One is the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), set up by key Boris Johnson allies Peter Cruddas, the businessman and Tory peer, and the former MEP David Campbell Bannerman.
As well as pushing for a radically member-focused revamp of the party, with a directly elected chair, the CDO also wants local members to have a far greater say in candidate selections.
Some reports have painted the CDO as a Johnson front organisation, tapping into the anger of a membership still devoted to the former prime minister, to wreak revenge on MPs who helped depose him.
Campbell Bannerman says this is a misreading of its actual mission: restoring autonomy to a candidate selection system too often used by Conservative central office to parachute in former ministerial advisers, and in the process weed out MPs who are performing badly.
“In the old days, central office’s job was to eliminate the bad, the mad and the sad, not to try and socially engineer the selection of candidates,” he said.
“We’re not claiming credit for deselecting any individual poorly-performing MP. But we do claim credit for empowering a membership to make their own decisions. And that’s an important distinction.”
Another complication is that the next election will be held under revised constituency boundaries, with many seats changing shape and some disappearing altogether.
Green, for example, was not rejected by the Ashford constituency he has represented since 1997, but when seeking to be the candidate for a new Weald of Kent seat which takes in some of his current electorate.
A series of party sources dismiss the idea Green lost out because Johnson-loving members viewed him as hostile to the former PM, instead arguing they wanted a fresh start – and that some felt Green arrived at the selection with an assumption he would be picked.
Similarly, there is no evidence that Clarke or Hart are victims of a Johnsonist plot. Clarke, the Stafford MP, linked her deselection to her recent maternity leave, something denied by the local party chair.
Hart, the MP for Hastings and Rye, was deselected earlier this month. While the reasons have not been made public, it is understood it is connected to local party factors, including a faction of members having another preferred candidate. Rejected MPs can seek a vote of the full membership, which Clarke and Hart are doing.
Unpicking common threads is all the more difficult because of the often tiny number of people involved in the initial selection decisions, made by a committee comprising representatives from local areas within the association.
“This can be up to 20 people, but it’s often much less,” one local constituency chair said. “Because we don’t have a lot of members, and not all of those even turn up, a fairly small number of people can have a disproportionate impact. It can get a bit dirty.”
But there are certainly those who believe that local Tory members have become more interventionist and rebellious, perhaps unsurprising in a party whose MPs have removed three prime ministers in less than four years.
And while there are few apparent signs of an orchestrated plot against MPs seen as having betrayed Johnson, local chairs routinely report that he remains hugely popular among members, with significant disquiet about his removal.
This could not be ignored, Campbell Bannerman said, much though Rishi Sunak and his team might wish to: “It does seem that No 10 are wetting themselves over the fact that Boris is a factor in these deselections. They’re trying to deny it fervently and almost say that it’s just the members who are awful.
“But there are a lot of factors, including MPs’ performance, and simply that members don’t like being railroaded.”
The MP who faces possible deselection by his local party said it had been made clear to him that his support for Johnson to be removed was the key reason.
“I have nothing against the man. It was only because of the damage he was doing to the party,” the MP said. “But some members – and it doesn’t take many to make trouble – are now after me for supposed treachery. If we’re turning into the sort of party where this happens, I’m not sure I want to be a part of it.”
Other party-watchers, however, are sceptical that we are witnessing a great awakening of the Tory grassroots.
The local party chair dismissed the role of the CDO as “over-egged and mainly on Twitter”, adding: “It can be a brutal game, and it can be fixed, there are stitch-ups. But is there any kind of membership revolt? I don’t think so.”
Another veteran senior Tory said very similar events also happened before the 2017 and 2019 elections, but these were snap polls with many candidates selected or deselected at speed.
“There has always been a sense of members wanting their say, and it’s not uncommon for them to reject central office’s preferred candidate,” they said. “But this time we’re seeing all these dramas as individual episodes played out over time. In 2017 and 2019, people just didn’t notice it.” | United Kingdom Politics |
The foundation called on President Cyril Ramaphosa to halt all SA's planned joint military exercises with Russia and China. The Desmond and Leah Tutu Foundation and Archbishop Tutu Trust called on Cyril Ramaphosa to cancel the planned military exercises with Russia and China. They said SA's association with Russia amounts to supporting the war in Ukraine. It said SA's resources would be better spent addressing internal needs, including power outages and inequality.The Desmond and Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation and the Archbishop Desmond Tutu IP Trust called on President Cyril Ramaphosa to demonstrate leadership by halting all SA's planned joint military exercises with Russia and China.The foundation and the trust issued a joint statement on Friday in response to the exercise, called Operation Mosi - which means smoke - set to take place between 17 to 26 February. The groups said South Africa's affiliation with Russia deviates from its neutral stance with regard to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It said the joint naval exercises were "tantamount to a declaration that South Africa is joining the war against Ukraine on Russia's side".The spokesperson for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), Brigadier-General Andries Mahapa, said on Thursday the maritime exercise was a "means to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China".He said over 350 SANDF staff would participate alongside their Russian and Chinese counterparts "with an aim of sharing operational skills and knowledge".READ | Missile fragments found in Moldova near Ukraine border as Russia launches another barrageLast year, South Africa abstained during a UN General Assembly motion to reprimand Russia - a position widely criticised by the official opposition, among others. The foundation and trust said South Africa's support of the resolution, which demanded Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine, could have enabled an effective negotiation for peace between the warring countries. "The resources and effort would be better spent providing the country with stable electricity, or providing services that begin to narrow unsustainable inequality and improve the quality of lives of masses of dirt-poor people," the statement read.It said that, if the price of the country's Brics membership was "to forfeit its integrity", then the price was too high."President Cyril Ramaphosa must show leadership and pull the plug on the proposed joint naval exercise. There is a narrow window of opportunity to pull South Africa back from returning to its apartheid status as a skunk." | Africa politics |
To British voters, the cost-of-living crisis is king. Nothing else matters much, and it will likely stay that way until the crisis is solved or until after the next election – whichever comes first. This simple fact has rendered all attempts by the government and other parties to refocus public anxieties – be it on migration, Northern Ireland, the Budget – as little more than muted distractions. This is why Labour still leads the country by 20 points, despite the public’s uneasiness with the Labour brand and Keir Starmer, and despite their own preferences for strict border controls.
New polling from YouGov for the Stop the Squeeze coalition, which tries to provide answers for the cost-of-living crisis, lays those anxieties bare. They were told by both swing and safe voters that reducing the cost of living is critical to their voting intention. So far, so unsurprising.
Forty per cent of Britons say Labour would do a better job than the Conservatives on the crisis, compared with 21 per cent who say the reverse. This chimes with other polling data that suggests the party has a clear lead over the Conservatives on the economy – a fundamental metric when measuring competence and capacity. It’s something Ed Miliband’s Labour never led on, nor Kinnock’s, nor Corbyn’s. Voting intentions come and go. They are as fluid and fickle as the voting public. But who you trust to keep the lights on and manage the books will forever matter most, which is why Labour’s lead on the issue is significant.
But what the polling adds to the debate is evidence that there is doubt about the opposition’s capacity to tackle the issue. Forty-seven per cent of those identified as part of the Stevenage Woman demographic (a group of voters not just confined to Stevenage, but rather, identified by think tanks as key to a general election) say they do not know what Labour’s priorities are. This compares with 39 per cent for the Conservatives. That means almost half of what are tipped to be swing voters remain unsure about Labour’s plans to help them.
That the party’s brand is viewed blankly at the moment has positives and negatives. It’s a plus that Labour can be an opposition to and for all things – so long as it remains in opposition, and so long as the other side doesn’t sort itself out. Labour’s strategy is working right now. The primary driver of the party’s overwhelming lead in the polls is Conservative voters expressing indifference and apathy about the state of politics. They’re unsure about returning to the Tory fold when polls open, and enough are unbothered by the idea of a Keir Starmer premiership to not vote against him personally. Like most elections, however, a sizeable chunk of the 2019 Conservative base will likely come home on election day. If they do, Labour’s tactic of saying nothing might falter.
In this era of intense disaffection with the status quo, parties might not need to give voters firm reasons for them to win. Governments often lose elections, rather than oppositions win them. If it’s Labour’s plan to be as inoffensive and “median” as possible to secure power, then it’s working. But at what cost for its future in government, and at what electoral risk?
Total sample size was 2,000 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken on 25-26 July 2023. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
[See also: What does Keir Starmer stand for?] | United Kingdom Politics |
Rishi Sunak is laying the groundwork for a spring vote
We don’t have politics: we have theatre. Parliament isn’t a place of debate or genuine Government scrutiny, but instead of drama — make-believe for men in grey suits.
Today’s Autumn Statement is the perfect illustration of this reality, a moment once specifically designed to be dull but now rolled in the same glitter as every other event in our political calendar. What was once an update about the state of the public finances has become a great pantomime designed to dazzle and amuse.
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And like a pantomime, nothing you see is real. Beneath the gags and sparkle on display from our own Widow Twanky — Jeremy Hunt — lay a pretty cynical message: tax cuts now paid for by spending cuts later. This, in other words, was a pre-election performance designed with an encore in mind.
My immediate reaction was that the statement surely suggests a May election is seriously being considered in Number 10. The fact that Hunt also announced he was rushing through the 2p cut to national insurance to come into effect in January is further evidence in favour of those who think May is most likely. To my mind, the 25-point deficit in the polls still points towards a later election, but it’s clear the Tories — having steadied the ship after Liz Truss — are now fully focused on the election.
But whatever the merits and demerits of today’s statement (and there were both), it was not a serious “long-term” plan as Sunak keeps telling us. The Government is now essentially pencilling in massive spending cuts to departments other than health and education — spending cuts few think are at all plausible, or not, at least, without a radical reevaluation of what we want the state to actually do.
Draped over this great political pantomime, then, is the biggest illusion of all: that we can sustainably reduce the tax burden as Hunt promises without changing the responsibilities we have given the state for looking after the retired. The fundamental reality of this Tory government, remember, is that it has increased taxes, not reduced them. Promising that it will now reduce them without addressing the reason they have gone up is not serious, long-term politics, but electioneering.
The real Autumn Statement could be summed up in four words: an election is coming. | United Kingdom Politics |
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walks after a bilateral meeting at the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, July 8, 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/Pool/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryLavrov to visit Ethiopia, Uganda after EgyptCairo balancing close relationships with US, RussiaRussia rebuilding post-Cold War ties in AfricaCAIRO, July 22 (Reuters) - Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will begin an African tour in Egypt on Sunday, seeking to draw on demand for non-Western alliances as Moscow pushes back against international censure over the war in Ukraine.In Egypt, Lavrov will meet officials trying to square deep links to Russia with their close relationship to the United States, which along with other Western powers sought to isolate Russia with tough sanctions after its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.After meeting Arab League members in Cairo, he will travel to Ethiopia and Uganda, two countries whose relations with the West have come under strain, as well as Congo Republic.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comEgypt has significant strategic and economic ties with Russia, which has been a key source in recent years of wheat, weaponry and - until the war complicated travel - tourists.This week, Russian state-owned energy corporation Rosatom started long-delayed construction on Egypt's first nuclear plant, the largest Russian-Egyptian project since the Aswan High Dam on the Nile was completed in 1970.Those ties have caused angst with Western states, a group of which petitioned the Egyptian government and the Arab League ahead of Lavrov's visit not to play into Russia's version of events in Ukraine, diplomats said.Kyiv and the West say Russia is waging an imperialist land grab in Ukraine, putting the global economy and food security at risk. Russia says it is conducting a "special military operation" against dangerous nationalists, blaming Western sanctions for a worsening food crisis.Egypt's relationship with the United States remains central, and in line with the West's position it has turned away at least one Russian shipment of wheat that Ukraine said had been stolen from occupied lands.But the Western stance on the war has gained limited traction in the Arab world and Africa, where governments are receptive to non-Western alternatives, said H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think tank.Egypt "identifies that the world is becoming more and not less multipolar, and it doesn't want to limit itself to a relationship that privileges the West above all else," he said.'NEVER SCHOOLED THEM'In an interview with Russian state media on Wednesday, Lavrov emphasised the Soviet Union's support for decolonisation during the Cold War, and Moscow's work to restore links in Africa since the Soviet Union collapsed, saying a second Russia-Africa summit was planned for next year."We have never schooled them (African states), we have always helped them solve problems that allow them to live in their country the way they want," he said, depicting a contrast with what he portrayed as U.S. efforts to steer countries in the region away from Russia and China.In Africa, Russia has found openings to restore its influence by offering security assistance with fewer conditions than the West and political cover from Western criticism, said Theodore Murphy, Africa director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.One country in which it has built ties is Ethiopia, where relations with the West soured after conflict broke out in the northern region of Tigray in 2020, causing the European Union to suspend budget support and the United States to suspend a trade deal giving Ethiopia preferential market access. read more Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous nation, is seeking to liberalise its sclerotic state-run economy.Relations between oil-rich Uganda and the West have also frayed over alleged human rights abuses by state security forces, election violence and rampant corruption. read more As African states look to alternatives they face a "negligible to non-existent" cost in forging ties with Russia, given the West's reluctance to draw down aid and development funding in the region, said Murphy.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAdditional reporting by Mark Trevelyan and Katharine Houreld
Editing by Frances KerryOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Africa politics |
As Labour arrives in Liverpool for what could be its final conference before a general election, leader Sir Keir Starmer is grappling with how to convert a commanding poll lead into power.
"One of the most ambitious politicians I have ever met."
That was the verdict on Keir Starmer, before he had even been elected as an MP, by the veteran political journalist Michael Crick, quoted in a biography of the Labour leader by Lord Ashcroft.
The man who might be prime minister, who first arrived in the Commons in 2015 aged 52, is obsessed with winning.
Those who know him well say he detests opposition.
"I want to get on with the real job of winning the next election. I don't find the self-promotion of this process a comfortable experience."
That's another quote - this time from Keir Starmer himself - in Lord Ashcroft's biography, Red Knight.
It's a remark the Labour leader gave to his local paper in London, the Hampstead and Highgate Express, again before he became an MP.
"He's forced himself to get good at politics," observes a friend.
But the big question this weekend is this: what would be good politics for Labour at their party conference, getting under way in Liverpool?
A recent poll conducted by the communications company FGS Global suggested there was much more enthusiasm for getting rid of the Conservatives than there was for having Labour instead.
This implies there may be more uncertainty in the political landscape than some polls might suggest.
The Labour leadership know they still have work to do to answer the question "if not them - the Conservatives - why us?".
Nonetheless, the party arrives on Merseyside chipper: the scale of their victory in the Rutherglen and West Hamilton by election, just outside Glasgow, allows Labour folk to dream winning the next election really might be doable.
A year ago, the Labour conference felt revelatory. The place swarmed with expectation and there weren't any punch ups in the corner.
There was a harmony about the place, which felt novel.
But people will expect a professional, potential government-in-waiting vibe over the next few days.
That won't be enough to generate buzz and attention. But how much buzz and attention do they need?
"Let's Get Britain's Future Back," is the slogan that will be bandied about. Expect doses of reassurance and hope.
Reassurance that they can trusted with the economy - with a commitment to prioritising economic growth running though lots of the big speeches.
And hope they can make things better, with talk of housebuilding and cheaper, cleaner energy. But how much detail should they offer in terms of policy and ideas?
The general election must be held by January 2025. But the precise date will be chosen by Rishi Sunak. So how does Labour get its countdown right, to a date it doesn't know?
"If Labour are the smallest possible moving target, Labour wins," is one argument made to me.
Perhaps, some think, they have too many policies.
The Australian Labour Party's own review of its general election loss in 2019, despite opinion poll leads, blamed having too many policies as a significant factor.
Its then leader, Bill Shorten, had been dubbed by opponents "The Bill Australia Cannot Afford".
A sense of vision is more important, for some.
"Vision is the road, policies are the street lights. At the moment there is plenty of light, but not enough road," I'm told.
But others, equally hopeful of a Labour victory, aren't so sure.
As one put it to me: "It's only ever politicians who are told they have to have a vision. If someone came up to you in the street and said they had a vision, you'd be worried. Why do politicians need to do it?"
"Keir's great skill is being iterative, putting down another building block," they add.
The suggestion being that rather than a single, big thing being unveiled in the next few days, the plan will be about building a set of ideas that add up to something.
And how should Labour respond to the prime minister's policy blitz: ditching the northern stretch of the HS2 high speed rail line, banning smoking for the next generation, changing post-16 education in England?
There is fury at senior levels of the Labour Party at what one source described as Rishi Sunak "salting the earth for a Labour government. They are getting spending in the future off the books so they can spend the money now."
But if Labour accepts, even reluctantly, what Mr Sunak is advocating - as they have over HS2 - doesn't it leave the party looking weak?
"If your opponent wants you to do something, don't do it," says a source, explaining their strategy.
"They want us to be outraged, so clear water between us is created and they can point at all our extra spending."
Plus, they argue, reversing the cancellation of HS2 or some of the delayed green targets wouldn't be practical or promote stability.
But this does allow the Conservatives to portray Labour as callow, even empty.
The key, says one Labour grandee, is to ensure policy development is being turbo-charged in private.
One figure told me recently they felt underwhelmed by what the party currently has in its policy locker.
"The most intense period for me intellectually, in all my time in parliament, were the three years before 1997," a former minister says, describing the "intensely granular detail" that was gone into, to prepare themselves for government.
This figure suggests leaving announcements about these ideas until early next year, by which time the Conservatives may have run out of time to nick them and implement them before polling day.
They all need a ferocity and a hunger, not just a few close to the leader, says another figure, willing them on.
Develop policy. Announce policy. Don't announce policy yet. Ditch policy. Show vision. No, there's no need.
There are plenty of suggestions being made. All of which serves to prove an observation Keir Starmer has made publicly: as leader of the opposition, you're never short on advice.
Running a functioning, well-liked government is difficult.
Just ask Rishi Sunak.
And so is assembling an electable opposition.
Just ask Keir Starmer. | United Kingdom Politics |
By GERALD IMRAY | The Associated Press
CAPE TOWN, South Africa — South African authorities were seeking answers Monday after 21 underage teenagers reportedly celebrating the end of school exams died in a mysterious incident at a nightclub. The bodies of many of the victims, the youngest just 13, were discovered by police lying on tables, slumped over chairs and sprawled on the floor of the club in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Police spokeswoman Col. Athlenda Mathe said the investigation into the deaths at the Enyobeni Tavern in the city of East London in Eastern Cape province was ongoing and no cause of the deaths had yet been established.
But Police Minister Bheki Cele said forensic samples taken from the victims were being sent to a toxicology laboratory in Cape Town, indicating that police were investigating whether the victims had ingested a poison or toxin. Cele said the toxicology tests might take “a lot of time.” Provincial safety official Unathi Binqose told the Daily Maverick newspaper that the victims may have ingested a toxic substance through alcohol they were drinking or through hookah pipes, which were being smoked at the party. Initial reports speculated that the teenagers may have died in a stampede because of overcrowding at the party, but authorities found no visible signs of injuries on the bodies.
Police said they were called to the nightclub at around 4 a.m. Sunday morning after receiving a report that there were “lifeless bodies” there. Officers responding to the call walked in on a grim scene: 17 teenagers were found dead on the spot. Two more died at a local clinic, one died on the way to the hospital and one at the hospital. Their ages were between 13 and 17, police said.
The teenagers were reportedly celebrating the end of mid-year exams, a local DJ’s birthday and the relaxing of COVID-19 restrictions in South Africa, which was announced earlier in the week.
Parents were asked to come to a mortuary to identify their children.
Police Minister Cele visited the nightclub and the mortuary on Sunday and choked back tears as he spoke to reporters outside the mortuary. “The scene I have seen here inside, it doesn’t matter what kind of a heart you have,” Cele said. “Firstly, the sight of those bodies sleeping there. But when you look at their faces you realize that you’re dealing with kids, kids, kids.”
“You’ve heard the story that they are young but when you see them you realize that it’s a disaster. Twenty-one of them. Too many.”
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is in Germany for the G7 summit, offered condolences to the families of the victims in a statement but also said he was concerned why “such young people were gathered at a venue which, on the face of it, should be off limits to persons under the age of 18.”
It’s illegal for anyone under 18 to consume alcohol in South Africa and residents and community leaders have called for the nightclub to be shut down. The tragedy will put renewed scrutiny on the many bars and nightclubs operating in poor neighborhoods in South Africa and which are often criticized for not abiding by liquor laws. | Africa politics |
There are fresh calls to clean up politics with stronger rules around lying after senior Tories made false statements around meat taxes and 15-minute cities at their annual party conference.
Green MP Caroline Lucas told Sky News a "dishonesty epidemic is infecting the Tory party" as she called on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to acquaint himself with the Nolan Principles of public life - which include that holders of public office tell the truth.
These are not legally binding, but some MPs and academics believe they should be amid a collapse in public trust in UK politicians.
The debate has been reignited after a fractious Conservative Party Conference which, aside from the HS2 fiasco, has been dominated by accusations of MPs lying and peddling conspiracy theories.
Critics point to Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho claiming in a speech that Labour is "relaxed about taxing meat" - something which is not Labour Party policy.
Meanwhile Transport Secretary Mark Harper, in an attack on 15-minute cities, said we should not tolerate "the idea that local councils decide how often you go to the shops" - echoing a conspiracy theory about the planning concept that the government has previously debunked.
The independent charity Full Fact also raised concern about Chancellor Jeremy Hunt describing inflation as a tax, saying that is "clearly not technically true".
Science Secretary Michelle Donelan has also been accused of "making things up" after pledging to "kick woke ideology out of science" while Susan Hall, the Tory mayoral candidate for London, faced criticism for suggesting the Jewish community is scared of Sadiq Khan - a claim Jewish groups have strongly disputed.
It follows a speech Mr Sunak gave on net zero last month in which he claimed to have "scrapped" measures which were never government policy, such as a tax on flying and households being required to own seven bins.
Ms Lucas told Sky News: "A dishonesty epidemic is infecting the Tory party. Our political leaders' socially-distanced relationship with the truth clearly didn't end with Johnson's ousting from office - over the past few weeks we've seen an escalation of fabrications, falsehoods and downright lies from Rishi Sunak's government.
"If the prime minister isn't acquainted with the seven Nolan Principles of public life - including that holders of public office should be truthful - then he shouldn't be in public life at all."
Ms Lucas is one of several MPs that supports a bill that would make it a criminal offence for politicians to deliberately lie. Polling by the cross-party group Compassion in Politics, which has drafted the legislation, shows three quarters of the public support the measure.
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Jennifer Nadel, co-director of Compassion in Politics said: "The last few days in Manchester really have put the con in conference.
"Rather than focusing on the major issues of the day - falling living standards, climate change, and crumbling schools - or giving a straight answer on the future of HS2, many Conservative MPs have tried to deflect attention by spreading lies and misinformation. It's doing a huge disservice to the public and to the members of their own party who are tainted by association."
Ms Nadel said that "lying persists because we have no rules to prevent it" and "this has to change".
She said their bill, if adopted, would bring politics into line with many other professions "which prohibit lying and deception".
Labour MP Debbie Abrahams, who is the co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Compassionate Politics, has also proposed a bill that would put the Ministerial Code on a statutory footing, making lying to the House of Commons a sackable offence.
She told Sky News: "Honesty and integrity should be the cornerstones of our politics but sadly they have been lacking at this week's Conservative Party Conference.
"Genuine political disagreements are fair game but it is disappointing that the Tories are so devoid of ideas that they have resorted to making things up."
In her speech at the conference on Monday, Ms Coutinho said: "It's no wonder that Labour seem so relaxed about taxing meat, Sir Keir Starmer doesn't eat it, and Ed Miliband is clearly scarred by his encounter with a bacon sandwich."
However, taxing meat is not Labour policy and the idea was rejected by Mr Miliband in 2021.
Ms Coutinho was repeatedly pressed about her comments on the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge but was unable to provide any specific evidence or expand upon it, calling it a "light-hearted moment" then going onto talk about the ULEZ charge.
Commenting on a clip of the exchange on X, former MEP and Conservative politician Charles Tannock said: "Make the Nolan principles statutory and restore public shame on those Ministers who deliberately deceive and lie to the public, otherwise the future and integrity of our precious democracy is in jeopardy."
The Tories have also been called out over Mr Harper's 15-minute city comments - including by Carlos Moreno, the academic who invented the concept.
The idea behind them is that everyone in cities should be a 15 minute walk or cycle away from basic amenities, but on Monday Mr Harper claimed they are being "misused" to restrict when people can go the shops and ration who uses roads.
However as pointed out by the charity Full Fact, there is no evidence that councils are attempting to place restrictions on how often residents can go to the shops, or their ability to choose which services they can access - something energy minister Andrew Bowie also suggested when asked about Mr Harper's comments on BBC Radio Four.
The charity have rebuffed other claims made this week, including Mr Sunak saying in his speech on Wednesday that Labour's immigration plan would lead to 100,000 asylum-seekers coming to the UK, which they said was an unreliable Conservative Party estimate.
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Steve Nowottny, editor at Full Fact, said this year has seen a "worrying trend" emerge across the political divide, with politicians making policies without putting them into context or supporting them with evidence.
"Trust in politics has been consistently low, and it is deeply disappointing when politicians of any party do not hold themselves to the highest possible standards of accuracy and fairness, as voters rightly expect them to ahead of the next general election," he said.
Last night, Science Secretary Ms Donelan insisted the Conservatives are "the party of fact" when a compilation of outlandish statements made by her colleagues was put to her on BBC Newsnight.
Presenter Victoria Derbyshire said: "There was never a proposal to use seven bins. We can't find any council that wants to decide how often people can go to shops and Labour have never proposed taxing meat. They are untruths, they are fiction, they are completely and utterly made up and it's really disrespectful to voters."
But Ms Donelan said: "I genuinely believe we are the party of facts and evidence." | United Kingdom Politics |
The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) came into force 70 years ago at an extraordinary point in history. Europe was reeling after a conflict that engulfed the whole continent, leaving millions of people dead and displaced, and countless others scarred by the unimaginable human rights abuses perpetrated by the Nazis.
The aim was to legally enshrine fundamental rights such as free speech and freedoms of association and religion, thus protecting individual citizens from the excesses of state power that Hitler had used to such devastating effect.
Unlike many treaties, the ECHR is not a fixed contract but a “living convention” and, over the years, an active interpretation by the courts has expanded and distorted the Convention beyond recognition. This “mission creep” is such that the ECHR has now become a threat to – rather than a protector of – democracy.
Such concerns are illustrated by the “pyjama injunction” last year, where an unnamed Strasbourg judge overruled the elected UK Government in the middle of the night, effectively grounding a flight that was ready to transport illegal migrants to Rwanda. Defending national borders is surely the primary duty of any government and it is frankly absurd that an unelected foreign judge can prevent a democratic executive from achieving its legitimate aims.
The ECHR was created to protect citizens from their own government, but it is now at risk of preventing governments from protecting their own citizens. Uncontrolled mass migration is possibly the most serious security threat of our time, and the ramifications of failing to tackle it will be severe. If the Supreme Court later this year decides that the Government’s Rwanda policy is incompatible with European law, there will be a very compelling case for leaving the ECHR.
It is disingenuous to claim that this would be a backwards step for human rights in the UK – our common law inheritance gives this country one of the best human rights records in the world, a heritage that predates the ECHR by many centuries.
But while there are sound political arguments for leaving the ECHR, and the migration issue is of such significance that ultimately there may be no choice, we must be clear about the unintended consequences of such a move. The unfortunate truth is that, in the last 50 years, aspects of UK equalities legislation have progressively mushroomed to become a threat to freedoms of speech, expression, religion and association; a threat that is currently only held at bay by our membership of the ECHR.
Human rights legislation and equalities legislation essentially pull in different directions. Human rights laws protect the individual against the state, but equality laws have evolved into an organ of state intervention, such as the Public Sector Equality Duty (PSED), which compels organisations to actively promote a selective notion of “equality” and has had a chilling effect on free speech.
It is the culture created by equalities legislation that allowed NatWest to “debank” Nigel Farage, schools to “socially transition” children, and a first instance employment tribunal to consider Maya Forstater’s factually accurate views on biological sex – shared by much of the population – somehow not worthy of respect. At present, our current human rights arrangement may be in some cases the only effective shield against such state overreach.
If the UK were to leave the ECHR without reforming equalities legislation, we could regain the sovereignty required to tackle illegal immigration. But there may also be far-reaching repercussions for freedoms of speech, association and religion, the very rights that post-war leaders sought to enshrine. This is not an argument for remaining within the restrictive ECHR, rather a plea for a substantial overhaul of UK’s equalities legislation, for example by considering the future of the PSED and reviewing the Gender Recognition Act 2004.
The Government should prepare to withdraw from the ECHR, but it must do so alongside a plan to curb the excesses of domestic equalities legislation to ensure the protection of fundamental freedoms in UK law. Only then can Britain claim to be a self-governing sovereign nation of free citizens.
Miriam Cates is the Conservative MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge | United Kingdom Politics |
Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital in the early hours of Sunday morning, striking at least two residential buildings, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said, as elsewhere Russian troops consolidated their gains in the east.A 7-year-old was taken to hospital along with four others, Klitschko said Sunday afternoon in a post on his Telegram channel. He added that she had surgery but her life was not in danger. Six people were injuted in total, he said. Culture minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said on his Telegram channel that a kindergarten was hit in the attacks.“According to prelim data 14 missiles were launched against Kyiv region and Kyiv,” Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko wrote on his Telegram channel, while Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said the missiles were Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles fired from planes over the Caspian Sea.Before Sunday’s early morning attack, Kyiv had not faced any such Russian airstrikes since June 5.Klitschko told journalists that he believed “it is maybe a symbolic attack” ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Madrid.Ukrainian rescuers work outside a damaged residential building hit by Russian missiles in Kyiv on Sunday.Sergei Supinsky / AFP - Getty ImagesTwo more explosions were later heard in Kyiv, but their cause and possible casualties were not immediately clear.President Joe Biden, asked for his reaction to Russian missile strikes Sunday on Kyiv, said: “It’s more of their barbarism,” as he stood with Olaf Scholz as the German chancellor greeted leaders arriving to open the Group of Seven summit.Biden also said the United States and other G7 nations ntend to announce a ban on imports of gold from Russia. They hope that measure will further isolate Russia economically over its invasion of Ukraine.Senior Biden administration officials said gold is Moscow’s second largest export after energy, and that banning imports would make it more difficult for Russia to participate in global markets.Meanwhile, Russian forces have been seeking to swallow up the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the eastern Luhansk region, pressing their momentum after taking full control Saturday of the charred ruins of Sievierodonetsk and the chemical plant where hundreds of Ukrainian troops and civilians had been holed up.Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region that includes Sievierodonetsk, said Sunday that Russia was conducting intense airstrikes on the adjacent city of Lysychansk, destroying its television tower and seriously damaging a road bridge.“There’s very much destruction — Lysychansk is almost unrecognizable,” he wrote on Facebook.His comments came after Russia also launched dozens of missiles on several areas across the country far from the heart of the eastern battles. Some of the missiles were fired from Russian long-range Tu-22 bombers deployed from Belarus for the first time, Ukraine’s air command said.The bombardment preceded a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, during which Putin announced that Russia planned to supply Belarus with the Iskander-M missile system.Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said late Saturday that Russian and Moscow-backed separatist forces now control Sievierodonetsk and the villages surrounding it. He said the attempt by Ukrainian forces to turn the Azot plant into a “stubborn center of resistance” had been thwarted.Haidai confirmed Saturday that Sievierodonetsk had fallen to Russian and separatist fighters, who he said were now trying to blockade Lysychansk from the south.Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted a spokesman for the separatist forces, Andrei Marochko, as saying Russian troops and separatist fighters had entered Lysychansk and that fighting was taking place in the heart of the city. There was no immediate comment on the claim from the Ukrainian side.Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk have been the focal point of a Russian offensive aimed at capturing all of the Donbas and destroying the Ukrainian military defending it — the most capable and battle-hardened segment of the country’s armed forces.Capturing Lysychansk would give Russian forces control of every major settlement in the province, a significant step toward Russia’s aim of capturing the entire Donbas. The Russians and separatists control about half of Donetsk, the second province in the Donbas. | Europe Politics |
Britain’s leaders have been warned against a “politically suicidal” lurch away from their green pledges as concerns grow that both major parties may dilute their plans to combat the climate crisis in the wake of a shock byelection result.
Senior figures from business, the scientific community and across the political divide warned that any watering down of climate policies would be deeply unpopular with voters, set back the international fight to reach net zero and damage Britain’s green reputation.
There are fears that both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will loosen their support for such policies after the Conservatives’ surprise win in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection on Thursday. The Tories narrowly won the seat, by just 495 votes, with a campaign that capitalised on opposition to plans by London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan to extend the ultra low emission zone (Ulez).
Sunak is already being urged by the right of the party and some of his own cabinet to rethink his commitment to green policies in the light of the Uxbridge result. Meanwhile, a senior Labour MP warned that Starmer risked “allowing the Tories to edit the next Labour manifesto” over climate change. The Labour leader had said the Uxbridge result showed the party must not adopt policies that could be featured on Tory election leaflets.
There is a concerted effort this weekend to ensure that the political unity over Britain’s net zero aims remains in place. Alok Sharma, a former Tory cabinet minister and president of Cop26, said it was vital that all parties maintained the political consensus on pursuing net zero.
“We have built up a broad political consensus in the UK on pursuit of net zero policies which are good for the economy, jobs, exports and the environment. Businesses support this agenda because they can see the economic benefits, he told the Observer. “And the independent Office for Budget Responsibility has noted that unmitigated climate change would ultimately have catastrophic economic and fiscal consequences for the UK.
“Concerns about the environment and climate change also consistently rank among the top issues of importance for voters. Given the economic, environmental and electoral case for climate action, it would be self-defeating for any political party to seek to break the political consensus on this vital agenda,” Sharma warned.
Zac Goldsmith, the former minister who quit the government over what he described as Sunak’s lack of interest in the environment, said that any party rethinking its commitment to the climate would be punished. “Byelection results can be interpreted in countless ways, and it is the nature of politicians and political commentators to wedge their own prejudices into the outcomes,” he told the Observer. “But to use these recent results to advocate abandonment of the UK’s previous environmental leadership is cynical and idiotic.
“It would also be politically suicidal, given the very deep and wide support for action on the environment that exists right across the electorate. And it is immoral, given that both government and opposition acknowledge the gravity of the crisis we face.
“So it’s hard to believe there really are people at the top of either of the main parties calling for abandonment of green policies, but if there are, I can only hope they are hammered by the electorate when the time comes,” said Goldsmith, who had been minister for the international environment and climate before he stepped down from the Foreign Office.
Professor Nicholas Stern, who led a seminal 2006 review on the economics of climate change, also issued a plea for leadership on the climate. “Air pollution kills tens of thousands in the UK each year – far more than deaths in road traffic accidents – and millions around the world,” he said.
“Inaction is not a sane option for us, our children and grandchildren. Second, the costs of investments in the transition away from fossil fuels are significantly increased by policy risk due to politicians chopping and changing their views and actions.
“Third, the investment costs of the transition need to be distributed fairly. And fourth, the UK’s reputation in the world depends on its leadership on these issues. Our standing has already been damaged by the loss of focus since we hosted the United Nations climate change summit in Glasgow in 2021.”
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer highlights the perilous state the Tories are in as MPs headed to their constituencies for Westminster’s summer recess. Labour has a 17-point lead. The party retains a 42% share of the vote, with the Tories on just 25%.
Sunak’s team are desperately searching for ways to reverse the party’s fortunes. As well as calls to back away from green measures, the prime minister is also said to be looking at a campaign that would vow to “protect” voters from Labour policies. Sunak’s government already appears to have watered down and delayed an end to the effective ban on more onshore wind farms put in place by David Cameron.
Nathan Bennett, head of strategic communications at RenewableUK, the renewable energy trade association, said that now was precisely the wrong time to be “watering down ambition” and for false arguments to be developing about the costs of greening the economy. “I am concerned about a false narrative emerging that green policies are unpopular and costly, as that’s certainly not the case for renewables and many other clean technologies,” he said.
“New wind farms are driving down energy bills, and polls consistently show that, if anything, people want us to roll out more renewables than we currently are, including new onshore wind.”
Greg Jackson, chief executive of Octopus Energy, the renewable energy group, said there was now a risk that the UK would lose out to other countries in the race for investment: “Harnessing the opportunities of net zero to deliver tangible financial benefits is extremely popular. Our customers love getting cheap energy when it’s windy, or being paid to use less when it’s not. Britain has had a lead in cheap, clean energy, but like so many industries of the past, we risk other countries getting the benefit of our innovation – costly for climate, cost of living and national security.”
Starmer raised concerns within the party by extending his criticism of the Ulez. “We are doing something very wrong if policies put forward by the Labour party end up on each and every Tory leaflet,” he told Labour’s national policy forum in Nottingham. It marks an escalation of his confrontation with Khan over the Ulez extension. In a change in tone, a source close to Khan said on Friday he was “listening to Londoners and always looking at ways he can address their concerns”.
Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell told the Observer: “Of course potential policy banana skins have to be avoided, but if we are not careful, effectively this means allowing the Tories to edit the next Labour manifesto on the greatest issue facing us, the climate crisis.” | United Kingdom Politics |
Labour winning an overall majority at the next general election would be a “miracle”, Lord Blunkett said.
The Labour grandee said a victory for the party at the next national contest was “by no means in the bag” and while he believed it was possible, it will be a “massive uphill struggle”.
Lord Blunkett, a former home secretary, also called for Sir Keir Starmer to show a “little bit more ambition” in terms of how a Labour government would tackle the migrant Channel crossings crisis.
The comments came as Labour continued to enjoy strong double-digit poll leads over the Conservative Party.
An Opinium poll conducted between August 16-18 gave Labour a 15-point lead, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey conducted on August 13 gave Labour a 20-point lead, and a Deltapoll survey conducted between August 9-11 gave Labour a 17-point lead.
Despite the significant and consistent poll leads, Lord Blunkett expressed caution over Labour’s chances of forming a majority government after the next election.
Speaking to the BBC Radio 4 Westminster Hour programme, he said: “I think Keir Starmer has done two major things. Firstly he has sorted out the internal conflicts and the destructive elements within the Labour Party.
“Secondly he has laid out a programme, cautious as it is at the moment, of change.”
Asked if an election victory was “in the bag” for Labour, Lord Blunkett replied: “It is by no means in the bag.”
He added: “I am an optimist, having been in the Labour Party for nearly 60 years, but I do believe that we can do it but it will be a massive uphill struggle and if we get an overall majority then I really will believe that miracles happen.”
Labour has been highly critical of the Government’s approach to the small boats issue, condemning the Rwanda migrant flights policy and accusing ministers of bringing forward “gimmicks” rather than workable solutions.
Lord Blunkett was asked if he believed Labour was currently in the right place in terms of its immigration policies.
“I would like a little bit more ambition in terms of how we might work with the French in the way I have described,” he said.
“I think we need to be much clearer about the kind of resettlement routes that we would put in place.
“And we sometimes need to be a bit more robust with the Government about the fact that they are quite happy to have 150,000 people coming in from Hong Kong or under considerable pressure to deal with the influx of people from Ukraine.”
Lord Blunkett suggested the UK should persuade France to implement a licensing scheme to make it harder to buy, sell or store boats that could be used for migrant Channel crossings.
He said: “I think if we were able to use some of the £400 million we are giving the French each year to help them set up a licensing system so no one could purchase a boat, store a boat or sell a boat without a licence.
“It would allow them to intervene at a much earlier stage than putting a knife into a rubber dinghy on the beach when they come across them.” | United Kingdom Politics |
Adding countries to the BRICS bloc will matter economically if Saudi Arabia is one of them but otherwise it’s hard to see the point, said Jim O’Neill, a prominent economist and veteran of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“I think them joining — which I imagine if anybody is joining it will include them — is a pretty big deal,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Monday.
Expansion of BRICS membership is top of the agenda for the summit being hosted this week by South Africa in the commercial capital of Johannesburg.
There have been more than 20 formal applications to join and President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday night gave his formal backing to the goal of expanding the club. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in June declared that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Egypt - were all strong applicants.
O’Neill said Saudi Arabia’s traditionally close links with the US and role as world’s biggest swing oil producer means its addition to the club would add real weight.
“The first thing is whether they then start actually pricing the oil in all these local currencies and not in the dollar,” O’Neill, now a cross-bench peer in the House of Lords, said.
A key BRICS goal is to lessen dependence on the dollar by boosting payments in members’ currencies, alongside a long-term ambition to launch a common currency to challenge the greenback. O’Neill said the idea of a BRICS common currency displacing the dollar any time soon was “madness.”
O’Neill, who coined the acronym BRIC in 2001 to describe the rising might of Brazil, Russia, India and China — South Africa joined in 2010, a year after the founding four got together — said making it bigger could make it harder for the club to get things done.
“They’ve had enough difficulty trying to agree just between the five of them,” he said. “So beyond the admittedly hugely powerful symbolism, I’m not quite sure what having a lot more countries in there is going to achieve.” | Global Organizations |
Key events:3m agoWill Quince resigns as minister after repeating false information from No 10 in interviews about Pincher scandal10m agoLaura Trott resigns as PPS in transport department, saying trust in politics 'of upmost importance'1h agoWhat have Johnson's political opponents said?1h agoAnalysis: PM limps on, but for how long?1h agoZahawi denies threatening to quit if not appointed chancellor2h agoWho resigned last night, and who replaced them?2h agoBoris Johnson fighting for political futureShow key events onlyWill Quince resigns as minister after repeating false information from No 10 in interviews about Pincher scandalAnd Will Quince has resigned as minister for children and families. Quince defended Boris Johnson in interviews on Monday and he says he has resigned because he was given false information to tell interviewers by No 10.In those interviews Quince said he had been given a “categorical assurance” by No 10 that Johnson was not aware of any “specific” allegation made against Pincher when he appointed him to the post of deputy chief whip earlier this year. That was not true.Quince says in his resignation letter that he spoke to Johnson last night and that Johnson delivered a “sincere apology”. But Quince says he has to resign anyway; effectively he is saying it is the honourable thing to do, having misled the public.With great sadness and regret, I have this morning tendered my resignation to the Prime Minister after I accepted and repeated assurances on Monday to the media which have now been found to be inaccurate. I wish my successor well - it is the best job in government. pic.twitter.com/65EOmHd47p— Will Quince MP 🇬🇧 (@willquince) July 6, 2022
Laura Trott resigns as PPS in transport department, saying trust in politics 'of upmost importance'Laura Trott has just resigned as a PPS (parliamentary private secretary). She has posted this on her Facebook page.I want to update you all, that I have resigned from my role as parliamentary private secretary, to the Department of Transport. Trust in politics is – and must always be – of the upmost importance, but sadly in recent months this has been lost. Thank you to all of you who have written to me expressing your views. I have read them carefully, and taken them into consideration as part of my decision. I have, and will always, put the residents of Sevenoaks and Swanley front and centre of my work in Westminster.Q: On inflation, there is an argument that you cannot afford tax cuts when inflation is a problem because that will fuel inflation. That is what Rishi Sunak thought. But there is another argument that tax cuts are needed, because they will fuel growth. Is that why you were appointed?Zahawi says that is not right. He says he was appointed because he would be evidence-led. He will rebuild the economy, and promote growth.Zahawi has not slipped into talking about the vaccine delivery programme, saying the focus on data, evidence and transparency made it a success. That is what he will do with policy generally, he says.Robinson says the data and evidence shows that taxes are going up to a record high under this government. Why not tell people the truth? Tough times demand high taxes.Zahawi says his focus is on promoting growth. 2023 is going to be hard for growth.Q: Taxes are going up?Zahawi does say “Yes”, but rapidly moves on. Zahawi says the PM told him last night to focus on “delivery, delivery, delivery”. But it must be a team effort. He goes on:Divided teams do not attract votes.(That does not bode well for Zahawi’s party, in the light of everything else being said by his Tory colleagues today.)Q: Everything ministers have told us about what No 10 knew about Chris Pincher was untrue. It was only when Simon McDonald spoke out they told the truth?Zahawi says the PM apologised last night. “In my view that’s good leadership,” Zahawi says (he is referring to apologising for your mistake).Q: But you and he did not tell the truth when you said he did not know about the Pincher allegations when he appointed him.Zahawi says he was telling the truth to the best of his knowledge.He tries to change the subject, and says they have a big challenge ahead.The people trying to turn the Tories against each other are people like Alastair Campbell, he says.Robinson says it is “insulting” to claim this crisis has just been created by the government’s opponents.Nadhim Zahawi, the new chancellor, is now being interviewed by Nick Robinson on the Today programme.Q: Why was it in the country’s interests, as against yours, for you to stay in the cabinet?Because we are facing a global battle against inflation, says Zahawi. And we have war on our continent. Many people are struggling with their bills. Today the biggest personal tax cut in a decade is coming into force (the rise in the national insurance threshold).Q: Don’t you agree with Rishi Sunak, who said the government should be conducted properly and competently? And don’t you agree with Sajid Javid who said the government should have integrity.Zahawi says Boris Johnson apologised for the Chris Pincher appointment. He says governments take decision at speed, and don’t get everything right.Andrew SparrowGood morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Hamish Mackay.Tory MPs critical of Boris Johnson claim that a majority of their colleagues are now in favour of replacing him.Chris Loder, elected MP for West Dorset in 2019, told the Today programme:I think there is a majority in the party that wants to see change. I personally have lost confidence in the prime minister now and I’m very sorry to say that. I think he does need to go. I think if he chooses not to, I think the 1922 Committee should act and I certainly would support that approach in the forthcoming 1922 elections.And Andrew Bridgen, who has been MP for North West Leicestershire since 2010, told BBC Breakfast that the mood in the party had changed since the two recent byelection defeats. He said:We are regarded as rebels. We’re not. Well over half the parliamentary party now now want Boris Johnson to leave office. That means we’re the mainstream … About a month ago we had the no confidence vote. Since then there’s been a lot of buyer’s remorse from those who backed him and it’s only been one way traffic. I haven’t heard anybody who voted no confidence in the prime minister has changed their mind since then. Yesterday even arch Boris loyalists on the backbenches had given up.Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves is next up on the media rounds. She tells BBC Breakfast that she welcomes the resignations but it is clear Boris Johnson “can no longer provide the leadership that the country desperately needs”.Echoing Starmer’s comments from last night, she says: “This is [about] much more than changing the person at the top of the Conservative party. Conservative MPs, Conservative ministers are complicit in what has happened in the last few years.”On the economy, Reeves says: “Britain is stuck, the economy is the weakest it has been for some time, growth is expected next year to be the lowest in the G20, except for Russia.”She adds: “Bring on a general election … It is time for a fresh start. Labour are ready to provide that leadership.”That’s it from me for this morning, I’m now handing over to my colleague Andrew Sparrow.What have Johnson's political opponents said?Responding to the resignations last night, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “If they [ministers] had a shred of integrity they would have gone months ago. The British public will not be fooled. The Tory party is corrupted and changing one man won’t fix that. Only a real change of government can give Britain the fresh start it needs.”Keir Starmer: Tory ministers ‘complicit’ as the PM disgraced his office – videoThis morning, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said the Conservatives must do their “patriotic duty” and “get rid of Boris Johnson today”.He told BBC Breakfast the Tories did not have a “serious economic plan” for the country during a cost-of-living crisis, adding that the Lib Dems have been “championing” tax cuts, particularly on VAT.In a tweet, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon added: “Feels like end might be nigh for Johnson – not a moment too soon. Notable tho that the resigning ministers were only prepared to go when they were lied to – they defended him lying to public. The whole rotten lot need to go.”The former Tory vice-chair Bim Afolami has been on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.The MP for Hitchin and Harpenden resigned yesterday, saying that – despite backing Boris Johnson in the recent confidence vote – the PM no longer had his support.He tells Today: The reason why I voted for the prime minister (in the confidence ballot) was that he was clear that he felt he earned the right to rebuild trust in him – rebuild trust in the government – after the issue of parties at Downing Street. I thought that was right, to give him that time. But I think that in the last few weeks we’ve seen that things haven’t improved. They’ve got a lot worse. I think the behaviour of Downing Street over the Chris Pincher affair was really appalling. And I, personally, just couldn’t think I could defend that sort of behaviour any longer.Tory vice chair resigns from his post live on air – videoAnalysis: PM limps on, but for how long?Rowena MasonIt was the blow to Boris Johnson that every one of his backbench critics had been waiting for.Sajid Javid, the health secretary, followed shortly by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, posted their letters of resignation on Twitter, criticising the competence of the government.Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid’s resignation letters in fullRead moreNeither explicitly mentioned the sexual misconduct and Partygate scandals that have dogged the government for months. Sunak in particular claimed the prompt for his resignation was his differing approach on the economy.But the backdrop to both resignations was Johnson’s catastrophic handling of the Chris Pincher affair, after he admitted appointing his ally as deputy chief whip despite having been told of misconduct allegations against him.Just seconds earlier, Johnson had told the cameras that he was sorry for his mistakes in appointing Pincher, and he had toured the House of Commons tearoom saying that “everyone deserves a second chance”.The problem is that Johnson is not on his second chance but a number much higher than that after scandals such as Partygate, Tory donors funding his flat renovations, his overriding of Security Service advice to give a peerage to Evgeny Lebedev, and attempts to rewrite the standards system.The two major resignations did not lead to an immediate further deluge of cabinet ministers quitting but Tory MPs critical of Johnson still believe this means the end is nigh for the prime minister.Next, Zahawi is pressed on teachers’ pay, energy prices and tax cuts. He gives hopeful but non-committal answers on the changes he hopes to make.He repeats that his aims are fiscal control, tax cuts and getting inflation down.Zahawi says he will use all the “levers” at his disposal, but doesn’t go into specifics.On Boris Johnson’s handling of the Chris Pincher revelations, which ultimately led to yesterday’s resignations, Zahawi says the PM – with the benefit of hindsight – has seen he was wrong to appoint Pincher as deputy chief whip and has rightly apologised (the video of that apology is at the top of his blog).Finally, asked if he thinks the PM is a man of integrity, he (unsurprisingly) says that he does.What did the new chancellor agree with the PM when appointed last night?Zahawi says his first job is to “rebuild the economy” and help people in the “global battle against inflation”.“I want to look at what more I can do to return to growth. The first thing we’ve got to do is make sure we’re really careful, whether that’s public sector pay, that we don’t deepen inflation.”He’s then asked about the possibility of raising corporation tax. Zahawi responds that he will “look at everything” but wants to make sure the UK is as competitive as possible when trying to entice businesses to invest in the country.Zahawi denies threatening to quit if not appointed chancellorThe new chancellor is on Sky News. First up, he’s asked why he took a job from a man described by many as a liar.“You don’t go into this job to have an easy life,” says Nadhim Zahawi, who adds that it would have been easier to walk away than to take this position.He says there are some “big challenges facing us” and he wants to help solve them.Pressed on the claim he threatened to resign if he was not appointed chancellor, Zahawi denies that was the case. “This is a team game,” he says.Will he run for leader if a vacancy appears? “There is no vacancy,” he responds.Who resigned last night, and who replaced them?The following people resigned from their posts last night:Rishi Sunak, chancellorSajid Javid, health secretaryBim Afolami, Conservative vice-chairAlex Chalk, solicitor generalJonathan Gullis, parliamentary private secretarySaqib Bhatti, parliamentary private secretaryNicola Richards, parliamentary private secretaryVirginia Crosbie, parliamentary private secretaryAndrew Murrison, trade envoyTheo Clarke, trade envoyThe new cabinet appointments are as follows:Nadhim Zahawi, chancellorSteve Barclay, health secretaryMichelle Donelan, education secretaryBoris Johnson fighting for political futureAt 6pm yesterday, Boris Johnson gave an interview he hoped would stem some of the criticism over his handling of the Chris Pincher allegations. Within two minutes, Sajid Javid had resigned as health secretary. Then Rishi Sunak quit as chancellor.Boris Johnson ‘bitterly regrets’ appointing Chris Pincher after complaint – videoIn total, 10 Tories handed in resignation letters for various of government posts on Tuesday evening, leaving the prime minister fighting for his political future.Johnson attempted to recover his authority by swiftly appointing Nadhim Zahawi as his chancellor and Steve Barclay as health secretary. But the credibility of the move was undermined as reports emerged that Zahawi had threatened to quit unless he got the job instead of the foreign secretary, Liz Truss.The resignations of Javid and Sunak, both considered potential future leadership contenders, come at a moment of significant danger for the prime minister. Elections to the 1922 Committee executive next week are expected to strengthen the hand of rebels hoping to call another vote of no confidence.There is growing expectation among MPs that there will be moves to change the rules to allow a second confidence vote before the summer recess begins on 21 July, a feat previously seen as administratively impossible.At midday today, Johnson will face the Commons for prime minister’s questions – we’ll bring you live updates from that and all the day’s other political developments as they happen. | United Kingdom Politics |
Saudi Arabia has expressed its interest in joining the Brics bloc.This was revealed by President Cyril Ramaphosa during his two-day state visit to the kingdom on Sunday.“The Crown Prince (prime minister Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud) did express Saudi Arabia’s desire to be part of Brics and they are not the only country,” said Ramaphosa.He confirmed this on Sunday during an engagement with the media.Brics held its first summit in 2009, with SA joining the following year. The bloc has generally been seen as an alternative to the dominance of the western economies.“We did say that Brics having a summit next year under the chairship of South Africa in SA and the matter is going to be under consideration.“A number of countries are making approaches to Brics members, and we have given them the same answer that it will be discussed by the Brics partners and thereafter a decision will be made.”TimesLIVESupport independent journalism by subscribing to the Sunday Times. Just R20 for the first month. | Global Organizations |
Matthias Schrader/Associated Press Group of Seven leaders and Outreach guests pose for a group photo during the G7 summit at Castle Elmau in Kruen. The Group of Seven (G7) countries are moving closer to endorsing a price cap on Russian oil — an untested plan that would seek to limit the Kremlin’s profits from selling the commodity worldwide. The idea has been floated in recent weeks as the United States and its allies search for ways to further squeeze the Russian economy to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine. Energy exports are the leading source of revenue for the Russian economy. The price cap has been a source of discussion during the G7 summit in Germany over the past two days, where President Biden is huddling with counterparts from Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan and Canada. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen first said last week that the U.S. was discussing the idea of a price cap with its allies. A senior Biden administration official told reporters on Monday that the G7 countries were in “final discussions” about an agreement on a global price cap for Russian oil. The official indicated that the G7 leaders would endorse the idea and then direct their finance ministers to develop “mechanisms” for setting a global price cap for Russian oil shipments to nations outside of the U.S., Europe and the G7. Speaking to reporters later Monday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan insisted that the G7 members were united behind limiting Russian profits from energy. “There is absolute consensus across the G7 that the purpose of our energy sanctions on Russia should ultimately be to deny revenue to Russia while at the same time ensuring a stable global energy market,” Sullivan said on the sidelines of the G7 summit. “There is also consensus emerging — although there continue to be discussions around it, so I don’t want to get ahead of the leaders on this — that the price cap is a serious method to achieve that outcome,” he said. Still, specifics for how the plan would work are currently unclear. Sullivan said that while there is agreement around the broad idea, countries are trying to work through the specifics of how it would be implemented. “This is not something that can be pulled off the shelf as a tried-and-true method that has repeated historical precedent and therefore can simply be taken as a standing option and implemented,” he said. “In a way, this conversation — starting at the expert working level, then ministers, now leaders — has been one of the G7 countries puzzling through a difficult challenge together and arriving at a point, we believe, where there is convergence around really trying to pursue this.” Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, and fuel is a major piece of the Russian economy. Countries including the U.S. have sought to hurt the Kremlin by restricting or banning imports of Russian oil amid the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Amid countries and companies turning away from Russian oil, as well as uncertainty in the market, oil prices have spiked in recent months, sending the price of gasoline skyrocketing. Late last week, global oil prices had fallen by a few dollars per barrel, but by midday Monday had risen back to about where they were previously — about $110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the White House announced Monday that the G7 leaders would move to punish Russia by enacting more sanctions and tariffs on Russian goods. The countries are also expected to commit to sending more economic assistance to Ukraine to help the country meet budgetary shortfalls. | Global Organizations |
Press play to listen to this article Voiced by artificial intelligence. LONDON — As a new year dawns, a new micro-generation is running Britain. Rishi Sunak’s arrival in No. 10 Downing Street has heralded the age of the “Xennials.” At 42, Sunak is — famously — Britain’s youngest prime minister in more than 200 years, albeit only a year or so younger than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they each came to power. But according to commentators, and to those who work closely with the new-look No. 10, Sunak and his youthful Downing Street operation are in a generation all of their own — and that’s shaping the choices they make in office. Born in May 1980, Sunak is part of a micro-generation known as “Xennials” — people born in a short window in the late 1970s and early 80s, straddling Generation X and the millennials. Xennials grew up in an analog world of VCRs and cassette tapes, unlike their digital-native millennial colleagues, yet have largely worked in an era of smartphones and high-speed internet. They started their careers before the 2008 financial crisis hit, and many snuck onto the housing ladder before it was kicked away. But they, like the millennials, have worked through the crash, the political turmoil of the 2010s and the COVID-19 crisis. Strikingly, Sunak’s Downing Street operation is packed with staffers from the same youthful cohort. Last month, he appointed his school friend James Forsyth, a Spectator journalist, as his political secretary, further bolstering Downing Street’s Xennial ranks. Oliver Dowden, Sunak’s close friend and Cabinet Office fixer, and the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case, Sunak’s most senior civil servant, were both born in 1978. The prime minister’s principal private secretary Elizabeth Perelman, his civil service gatekeeper, is also believed to be part of the same micro-generation. In Sunak’s No. 10, older heads are few and far between. “There is a proper coup of the Xennials,” one former aide close to Team Sunak said, also citing the appointment of Eleanor Shawcross, who runs Sunak’s policy unit, and key policy advisers Bill Morgan and Nick Park. Unlike their Gen X predecessors, the Xennials were still children when Margaret Thatcher was in her pomp. The Conservative prime minister had left office by the time they hit their politically-formative mid-to-late teens and early 20s, even if her legacy lingered on. They are a cohort “not cynical enough to be truly grunge, but not nearly as cheerfully helicopter-parented as millennial, participation-trophy kids,” the U.S. journalist Sarah Stankorb, who coined the term in 2014, explains, referencing a modern phenomenon where children are awarded prizes simply for participating in contests. Digital divide There’s another key trait Stankorb has spotted in her generation. “You can understand the ‘before’ [digital] times, but you are also capable of learning,” she writes. “In some ways you are digital native, but it isn’t like being born into it, like younger millennials or Gen Z.” Speaking on POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast back in 2021, Sunak confirmed he could recall the era of the mix tape, and revealed his wife probably still had a mix CD which he’d made for her in his youth. He also recalled when discs were actually floppy — all key Xennial attributes. Matt Hancock, known for his toe-curling use of social media, was born in 1978 | Hollie Adams/Getty Images Those who know Sunak well say there are clear signs of this mindset in the way he and his colleagues are running No. 10. The former aide quoted above claimed Sunak is the “most tech-aware prime minister we have ever had,” and “will build that into policy-making if he has time, in a way other prime ministers haven’t.” A lobbyist who has worked with Sunak noted that it was hard to predict which way the PM would move on an issue because he is so “widely driven by the data.” But another former adviser fears Sunak’s straddling of the digital and analog worlds may not be to his advantage, and can lead to basic errors of tone and judgement. “[Xennials] don’t understand why people aimlessly click on stuff all the time and spend all their time on social media, but [they] know that that’s where the future is,” the ex-adviser said. “That’s why you get all these crappy [government] videos, even though no-one will be following the prime minister’s accounts and being informed through that. This is why you get ministerial TikTok, and the rise of [former health secretary] Matt Hancock.” Hancock, known for his toe-curling use of social media, was born in 1978. “It’s just jarring,” the ex-adviser added. “It’s not working somehow, and that is why the Tories look like even bigger geeks than they are.” Policy choices Given his relative youth, Sunak has already faced questions about whether his policy agenda offers anything for squeezed millennials still struggling to get a foothold on the housing ladder. Challenged on that very point in a BBC interview Sunday, Sunak insisted the pledges he had made in his new year speech — among them tackling inflation, restarting economic growth and reducing public sector debt—were “the country’s priorities.” “The best thing we can do to help that generation is to get interest rates down, and that means getting inflation down which is why the first priority I set out this year was to halve inflation, the second priority I set out was to grow the economy,” he said. Ryan Shorthouse, founder of the Bright Blue think tank for centrist Conservatives, said the decline in younger people voting Tory can be blamed on Britain’s chronic lack of affordable housing | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images But many Tory strategists fear Sunak and his party are still doing far too little to woo millennial voters, citing data suggesting the Tories are shedding support among this cohort. Ryan Shorthouse, founder of the Bright Blue think tank for centrist Conservatives, said the decline in younger people voting Tory can be blamed on Britain’s chronic lack of affordable housing, as well as a falling birth rate among generations now lacking the economic stability to start a family. “I think that should send shivers down Conservative spines,” he said. “I just haven’t seen enough yet from Rishi on supporting his generation, ultimately.” Hoodies are for lounging Back in No. 10, Sunak has also shunned some of the work habits that have come to define millennials, including informal dress and a pandemic-induced fondness for home-working. While often pictured wearing a hoodie, Sunak has in reality, according to one current official, stuck to a Liz Truss-era diktat that staff should be smartly dressed. “He is relatively traditional [in his managerial style], which probably speaks to the point about being on the cusp of both generations,” the first former adviser quoted above said. “He is quite deferential and respectful, and I suspect he wants people dressed properly most of the time. He definitely wants people around, putting the hours in,” the adviser added. Despite concern about Sunak’s policy focus, Shorthouse said there are “really impressive” people in No. 10, including Shawcross and Deputy Chief of Staff Will Tanner who are “very passionate about improving policy for millennials and younger people.” And while the the Xennials’ time may have come in No. 10, Sunak also has a number of senior millennial officials in his team. His chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith, director of communications Amber de Botton and press secretary Nerissa Chesterfield are all thought to qualify as proper millennials. Sunak’s 37-year-old parliamentary private secretary Craig Williams, the MP tasked with being the key point-person with Conservative backbenchers, is increasingly important to the Downing Street operation, and “trusted completely” by the team, a second current adviser said. There are also older heads at the heart of Sunak’s wider operation, albeit based outside of No. 10. Chief Whip Simon Hart, who turns 60 later this year, is in “all the important meetings,” the second current adviser added. Sunak’s Downing Street neighbor, the 56-year-old Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, is also said to be forming a good relationship with the PM. Sunak is not quite the first Xennial world leader, of course and should he need advice from a global ally of a similar age, can always pick up the phone to French President Emmanuel Macron — born in December 1977. Failing that, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is thought to be a Xennial too. | United Kingdom Politics |
Ten Maasai leaders were detained and more than 30 people wounded during violent clashes with police in northern Tanzania on Friday, as they protested against eviction from their land to make way for a luxury game reserve.One police officer was reportedly killed in the clashes and hundreds of people are in hiding after the protests in Loliondo, which borders Serengeti national park.The protests began when police began to demarcate 1,500 sq kms (540 sq miles) of land to make way for the reserve, to be operated by a UAE-owned company. The Maasai regard this land as their home.The leaders arrested last week have not been seen since they were detained. The NGO Pan-African Living Cultures Alliance said it plans to stage a mass protest on Wednesday unless they are released.One member of the Maasai community, who declined to be named, said at 6am on Friday police fired “many bullets” at protesters. “They destroyed our boda-bodas [motorcycles], took our cattle and properties had been destroyed.Protestors injured in the clashes have reportedly had to cross into Kenya for medical treatment in order to avoid arrest. Photograph: Handout“Very many women have been beaten. There were so many women there, I think they are using women as a weapon.”He said security forces went from house to house arresting people. “People are still being tracked by police, especially the educated, those with phones and evidence. Eight young men were taken away for putting photos on social media. We are under a lot of pressure.”Those wounded in the clashes have reportedly had to cross over to Kenya to receive hospital treatment, since state medical care is being refused to land defenders in Tanzania. Three people reportedly remain in a serious condition.A rights activist working with the Maasai, who wished to remain anonymous, said: “Thousands of Maasai from Loliondo are crossing the border, seeking refuge, especially women and kids. They’ve been sleeping in the forest.“The victims can’t go to hospital in Tanzania – they’ll be arrested. Kenyan doctors, paramedics and nurses are taking care of those who crossed safely.”Previous attempts to evict Maasai from the region have been thwarted after local and international pressure. But fears of a renewed attempt were raised in February when Tanzania’s tourism minister, Damas Ndumbaro, said the Maasai did not have a claim to their homeland. In April, community leaders sent letters to the UK and US governments and the EU, appealing for help.Earlier this month, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism announced that it wanted to classify more areas as game reserves.The Tanzanian government has denied it is trying to evict anyone and said it was trying to conserve the area. It maintains Maasai will still have access to 2,500 sq km of land.But Denis Moses Oleshangai, a Tanzanian human rights lawyer, said the government’s actions were “a crime against humanity” and called on the international community to intervene. “The government of Tanzania depends on aid from the west. I am asking countries not to fund Tanzania because it is using this money to terrorise people.”Samwel Nangiria, a local Maasai community leader and the director of the Ngorongoro NGO Network, agreed. “The international community must hold our government to account,” he said. “This is brutal, they have used excessive force against Maasai who have lived alongside wildlife for a very long time. If this is not addressed, it will set a precedent and Maasai will be pushed off their land elsewhere.”Activists gathered outside the Tanzania high commission in London in February to protest against the planned eviction. Photograph: Vuk Valcic/AlamyMalik Hassan Shafi, a spokesperson from the Tanzanian embassy in Washington DC, told the Guardian: “The government has not burned any house nor attacked anyone in Loliondo.“We want to assure you that the government of the United Republic of Tanzania has never and will never hurt its own people it has sworn to protect. Those are propaganda instigated by people with malicious intent against the government.”He said the “exercise” to mark off the area had been “mutually agreed” by the government and local people. | Africa politics |
After a frenetic political year, MPs enjoyed a period of relative calm as Westminster returned to work this week. Strikes aside, there have been no contentious issues setting Parliament alight – yet.But beneath an apparently tranquil surface, Conservative concerns are bubbling up about Rishi Sunak. Labour is seeking to build up a picture of the Prime Minister as fundamentally “weak”, while voters say they are potentially uncomfortable about Mr Sunak’s wealth. And despite their leader’s healthy personal polling, a handful of Tory MPs are starting to discuss the nuclear option of bringing back Boris Johnson.Sir Keir Starmer has told allies the best way to stop Mr Sunak from gaining momentum is by emphasising his failure to stamp his authority on the Conservative Party. While Sir Keir has repeatedly picked fights with the Labour left – and won – the Leader of the Opposition argues that the Prime Minister has shied away from conflict with backbenchers, for example by watering down housing targets after pressure from MPs.Mr Sunak’s defenders say they believe he is working his way through a three-step plan ahead of the election which MPs expect will take place in either spring or autumn of 2024. The first phase was to steady the ship after the chaos of Mr Johnson’s demise and the Liz Truss premiership, which was more or less accomplished before Christmas.Next, the current stage, is to “demonstrate competence and delivery”, as heralded by the Prime Minister’s unveiling of a five-point plan for the country. Only once that is complete, probably later this year, will the Government turn to “set out a vision for the country” ahead of the next general election. A minister said: “We are still a while away, we have got to get our heads down and start delivering. The vision stuff will come.”More on Conservative PartyThe problem for Mr Sunak is that many MPs are not willing to be so patient. While most express sympathy for his position and say they want him to succeed, they are keen to see signs of concrete achievement as soon as possible. One prominent ally of Ms Truss told i: “People are hoping he’ll succeed and looking for a period of quiet. But there seems to be no action to deliver on the five-point plan, which is a concern, so the PM and Cabinet really need to make the next few months count.”Another Tory MP said Mr Sunak needs to start honing a retail offer to voters: “He’s had three months of sorting out the economy, looking studious behind a desk, we now need some impact.”A veteran backbencher added: “He is doing his best. The reality is that Liz and company trashed the brand, so it’s going to take a bit of time for the public to trust us again. I don’t trust the polls, they go up and down like a bride’s nightie.”But the senior figure said that many colleagues are already “f**king twitchy” about the prospect of losing their seats and pointed to the future flashpoint of May’s local elections, when more than 3,000 Conservative councillors will face re-election. They even predicted that backbench supremo Sir Graham Brady could start to receive no-confidence letters demanding a vote on Mr Sunak’s future in the event of a poor result.The MP said: “At the local elections, if there is a meltdown – and there could be a meltdown – that is when things are going to go funny. That is when we are going to see another letters escapade. The obvious candidate is Boris, he will come back a knight in shining armour. The machinations have already begun, Boris and Liz are in cahoots with one another.”More on Boris JohnsonMr Johnson has certainly remained in the public eye, most recently turning up at the members-only Carlton Club – ironically the scene of his final downfall, since it was where his ally Chris Pincher was caught behaving inappropriately towards younger men – for the unveiling of a portrait in his honour.The revelation that he has raked in a £1m donation from a Brexiteer tycoon will only stoke speculation further as to what he is up to. And Ms Truss is expected to break her silence in the coming weeks – a source close to the short-lived former leader said: “She’s certainly planning to make her presence felt.”Sir Keir’s office is already wargaming a possible return to power by Mr Johnson ahead of the next election, i understands, amid fears Labour would have to shift its strategy away from the current route of accusing the Conservatives of being stingy with the public services. A party insider said: “It was harder with Johnson because he was so keen on spending money.”Mr Sunak, by far the most popular politician in Britain when he was the free-spending chancellor at the height of the pandemic, is said to have been shaken by his slide in popularity. During a campaign visit to Stoke last year, he was shocked when a heckler yelled “Dickhead!” at him as he got out of a car.Some allies are sanguine about the Conservatives’ poor position in opinion polls, which show Labour would win a huge majority in an election held now. “The party still is 20 points behind but he still leads Keir in who makes the best leader,” a minister said. “Despite everything, we are still more trusted on the economy – that is nuts, given everything that has happened.” Internal polling shared with MPs has predicted the party would hold on to 80 per cent of the voters who backed it in 2019, which could be enough to make the Tories the largest party in the Commons even if they fell short of a majority.The Prime Minister is still more popular than his party, according to pollsters and focus group leaders. Chris Hopkins, the director of Savanta, told i: “Sunak’s personal poll ratings are OK. Our most recent poll in December found his favourability at -10 which, while not great, is nowhere near as bad as Johnson’s or Truss’s were towards the end of their premiership, and isn’t too far away from Starmer’s (+3).”More on Rishi SunakBut he added: “We have seen some believe Sunak is out of touch. His personal wealth is seen by some as an issue when it comes to him legislating over economic policy during a period of economic difficulty, with him unable to put himself in the shoes of ordinary people. Wealth itself isn’t necessarily an issue, but Sunak’s wealth is so astronomical and beyond comprehension, some find it off-putting.”Mr Hopkins emphasised that Mr Sunak could improve the Tories’ fortunes – as long as he can “ride through the winter” and “continue to distance himself from the previous Conservative leaders” with “sensible and moderate leadership”.Ed Dorrell, a director at public affairs consultancy Public First, said that in focus groups Mr Sunak was “seen as a fresh start”. But he warned: “He is no longer the Rishi Sunak who delivered furlough and Covid interventions. He is often defined as Rishi Sunak, the husband of a billionaire.”He said: “In terms of his personality he is seen as a bit odd. You can see in the way he talks and behaves, he was far more comfortable during the pandemic speaking in front of slides and giving powerpoint presentations. But when it comes to the more general speeches, where he has to empathise with people he is less at ease. You can see a situation where the perception of him being a tech geek builds quite quickly.”One senior Labour figure said: “If I were a Tory strategist, my main fear would be that they are setting up a ‘we are shit, but our guy is quite good’ narrative about Rishi. Why? Because come an election campaign even more people will see he looks f**king weird when he meets the public.” | United Kingdom Politics |
One of the great paradoxes of politics is that the most astonishing gambles are so often taken by the most cautious leaders. Caesar Augustus was meticulously careful about everything he did, yet recklessly bet on challenging Mark Antony at Actium. “Strong and stable” Theresa May staked her career on a hopelessly flawed Brexit deal.
Rishi Sunak is cut from similar cloth. “Captain Sensible” has, for all his fastidiousness, consistently shown a predilection for huge if calculated gambles. We saw it when he defied his Cameroonian clique to back Brexit during the referendum. We saw it when he risked a massive revolt by the green blob by rolling back some of the country’s net zero commitments. Now the Prime Minister threatens to unleash the fury of the Tory Right by sacking Suella Braverman and bringing David Cameron in from the cold.
The conventional reading is that Sunak is merely doing what is necessary. The line being spun is that Cameron’s comeback not only symbolises the healing of Conservative family rifts, but lends the party a measure of heft and experience that it has been lacking.
It is also correct that the PM had little choice but to let Braverman go. Had the Prime Minister allowed one of his most senior Cabinet ministers to not just get away with – but actively thrive on – undermining his position, bolstering her own popularity among the grassroots at his expense, it might have become impossible to enforce a united Cabinet line on anything. Tory politics might well have swiftly collapsed into a beauty pageant for the next party leader.
Braverman is also, in truth, no great loss to the Government. She may have her fans in conservative circles, but her track record at the Home Office was dire. Net migration has surged to more than 600,000, the asylum processing system has collapsed, and the number of migrants crossing the Channel from countries other than Albania remains scandalously high.
The Department for Education mercilessly thwarted her bid to slash number of foreign students. In the end she settled for fiddling at the edges, constraining the ability of students to bring family members, and lobbying for a rise in the pay threshold for foreign workers to mere pre-Brexit levels.
Unable to establish herself as a politician who gets things done whatever it takes, Braverman settled for styling herself as a conservative who tells it like it is, whatever the consequences. It was, of course, ultimately her undoing.
The fact remains, though, that the PM is making the gamble of his career. As an insurgent who seized power after the defenestration of Boris Johnson and implosion of Liz Truss, his power base is pure Game Theory, founded on a suboptimal equilibrium: a status quo that remains stable even though none of the factions grudgingly propping him up – from the green Tories in Lib-Dem target seats to the Brexiteer Spartans – are particularly happy.
Has Sunak destroyed the careful balance of power upon which his position is based? He resisted replacing Braverman with another Right-winger, opting instead for the more emollient Brexiteer James Cleverly, who raised eyebrows on the backbenches while foreign secretary for parroting the Civil Service line on China and Saudi Arabia. This is not to mention the fact that many Britons will be bewildered by the return of Cameron. It is as if we are condemned by the laws of eternal return to replay the hellish saga of the past 13 years from the beginning.
Whether the risky path Sunak has chosen proves to be worth it depends on whether he elects to do something radical with his new team. It is surely game over if his advisers have managed to persuade him that there must be a return to the cuddly Conservatism of the Cameron years. A wrong move now threatens the party’s very survival.
Yes, Braverman’s rhetoric was often not only morally beyond the pale but also strategically nonsensical. The Conservatives ultimately dominate mainstream centre-Right politics, not by shouting in outrage at a broken system, but by trying to fix that system and delivering on their manifesto promises. But it does not follow that what is called for is some dramatic makeover of the “Nasty Party” to win over London Tories and Lib Dems. The significance of the Blue Wall is overstated by southern-centric politicos, two-thirds of the next election’s battleground seats are in the culturally conservative North.
The PM seemed to understand this when he announced his move on net zero, however. And Wednesday could be when we find out what this reshuffle really means for the Tories. That is when we discover whether the Government will lose its Supreme Court appeal over the Rwanda plan. If the judgment goes against it and the new Cabinet shrugs its shoulders and does nothing, it could face a revolt by the Tory Right over its immigration failures. It is not inconceivable that Braverman could spearhead a campaign from the backbenches for Britain to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.
But what if, instead, Sunak uses the moment to take his party in a daring new direction – making a bold pitch to take Britain out of the ECHR, perhaps allying that with a daring plan to slash benefits? In which cast Cameron might be an ideal ally.
For a brief and brilliant moment, in the eye of the storm of the financial crash and before he was captured by the Remainer Blob, Cameron seemed at least to partially grasp that the era of Blairite politics – whereby the aim of the game was to fund an ever-expanding welfare state through an economy run on cheap money and cheap labour – had crumbled. He understood the potential of galvanising a populist movement to cut the welfare state. He also accepted that reducing migration over the long term was politically non-negotiable, and he was certainly no great fan of the ECHR.
Which way will the PM go? Sunak must know that both the Tories – and the country – stand on the edge of a precipice. A brewing scandal is that Jeremy Hunt may be unable to cut taxes or protect public spending in the Autumn Statement, in part because the Bank of England remains out of control, hell-bent on selling off government bonds from its quantitative easing binge.
The NHS faces a nasty winter crisis, with the impact of strike action taking its toll and waiting lists yet to peak. Public attitudes to immigration are hardening again as frustration at the failure of the Government to end illegal Channel crossings converges with renewed anxiety over Islamist extremism being incubated in insular communities on our shores.
We’ll find out very soon whether Sunak has gambled with a full comprehension of the stakes. For now we can only gape slightly dumbfounded at British politics’ latest shock turn. | United Kingdom Politics |
LONDON -- The five-nation BRICS group announced expansion of members on Thursday, having invited six countries to join the bloc.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is hosting the group's summit in Johannesburg, said that Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would begin their membership in January.
"This membership expansion is historic," Chinese leader Xi Jinping said. "It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and development."
This expansion was a central topic of discussion during the three-day summit, although Ramaphosa said the idea had been worked on for over a year.
Mohammad Jamshidi, Deputy Chief of Staff for Political Affairs to Iran, commented on social media. "In a historic move, Islamic Republic of Iran becomes a permanent member of BRICS, a strategic victory for Iran's foreign policy."
United Arab Emirates leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan welcomed the announcement to include his nation in "this important group."
"We look forward to a continued commitment of cooperation for the prosperity, dignity and benefit of all nations and people around the world," Mohammed said in a post.
"We look forward to cooperating and coordinating with the member states and with other countries invited to join the bloc, to achieve its goals of strengthening economic cooperation among us, and raise the voice of the Global South regarding the issues and development challenges we encounter," Egyptian President El-Sisi said, according to Egypt Today.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hailed what he called "a great moment" for his country.
Alberto Fernández, President of Argentina, called this "a new step in the consolidation of brotherhood and openness to the world that we always dreamed of."
While Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa all publicly expressed support for expansion, there was division among the leaders over how many countries could join and how quickly it would happen.
The last time the BRICS expanded was in 2010, when South Africa joined, adding an "S" to the acronym, one year after the creation of the block. Currently, it represents around 40% of the world's population and more than a quarter of global GDP.
The expansion signifies an important move in the attempt to reshape the global order into a multipolar world, with voices from the Global South at the center of the international agenda. | Global Organizations |
A top Tory has admitted an MP suspended over sex abuse and bullying allegations shouldn't have been canvassing with a Government minister.
Science Minister Michelle Donelan said Peter Bone should not be out "advertising and promoting the Conservative Party" if he is not a Conservative. Ms Donelan was grilled after the Mirror caught Mr Bone, who has lost the Tory whip, door-knocking with DWP minister Tom Pursglove on Saturday just after he was banned from the Commons.
Mr Bone, who is serving a six-week suspension over bullying and sexual misconduct claims, denies any wrongdoing. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under mounting pressure to take action against Mr Pursglove for joining his pal in drumming up support for the Tories.
Asked about the outing, Ms Donelan initially attempted to bypass scrutiny by saying she didn't know the "full details", adding: "It's my understanding that it was a local campaign Action Day for a local by-election. Obviously Tom, as the local MP (for Corby), would be there. Peter Bone also happened to attend."
Pressed whether Mr Bone should have been out with a Government minister, she said: "That’s a question you need to ask Tom." But GB News presenter Camilla Tominey insisted: "I'm asking you though, should Peter Bone have been there?" Ms Donelan said Mr Bone has had the Tory whip removed and has been suspended from Parliament, while adding that she was "not obviously in the area".
Ms Tominey continued to ask Ms Donelan four more times - bringing the total to six - whether Mr Bone should have been out with Mr Pursglove. "Well, yes, but I wouldn't put it as simply as that," Ms Donelan said. "I'd say that, if you're not a Conservative, you shouldn't be advertising and promoting the Conservative Party and that seems like common sense to me."
Mr Pursglove, who has been an MP since 2015, is a former Vice Chair of the Conservative Party. He worked as a Home Office minister before being moved to the Department for Work and Pensions a year ago.
A parliamentary sleaze investigation found a fortnight ago that Mr Bone had trapped an aide in a Madrid hotel room in 2013 and exposed his private parts to him. A watchdog said he had repeatedly asked his researcher to give him massages and threw pens and other office equipment at him. In one incident, Mr Bone is alleged to have struck the aide on the back of his head and told him: “You’re having a thick day and I thought that would help”.
The Commons accepted the findings of the report on Wednesday evening and Mr Bone was handed his suspension, which could lead to him facing a by-election. But just days later, Mr Pursglove, 34, was pictured by the Mirror knocking doors alongside Mr Bone in his Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, constituency on Saturday morning ahead of a local council election. Mr Pursglove is the MP for the neighbouring seat.
The latest sleaze row comes after the Tories were rocked by the arrest of ex-minister Crispin Blunt on suspicion of rape and the use of controlled substances. The Reigate MP confirmed he had twice been interviewed by police, but says he is confident he won’t be charged.
Asked about 16 Tory MPs having lost the whip for a wide range of allegations, including sexual harassment and racism, Ms Donelan told Sky News' Trevor Phillips: "Obviously it's completely unacceptable to have any type of behaviour akin to this, not just in the House of Commons but across society, and we should, I very strongly believe, be setting the right example and the right tone for others to follow.
"But it's certainly not my experience of working in the House of Commons. This is completely unacceptable, but it is a very small minority of people and the vast majority of MPs, what they're focused on, is working really hard for their constituencies and delivering and that's the very reason why they entered politics in the first place."
Meanwhile Mr Sunak is still reeling from two heavy by-election defeats this month, with Labour storming to victory in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire. The contest in Tamworth was triggered by the resignation of yet another disgraced Conservative MP, Chris Pincher, 54, who quit after losing an appeal against a suspension for drunkenly groping two men. The allegations against the former Deputy Chief Whip sparked the end of Boris Johnson ’s reign last year as questions about what he knew about the scandal triggered a wave of ministerial resignations.
Now another nightmare by-election for the Tories looms as Wellingborough residents choose whether to boot out Mr Bone, who currently has a 18,540 majority. If 10% of voters in the constituency sign a so-called recall petition by December 19, then a by-election is triggered.
Mr Bone's alleged victim said the experience had left him as a "broken shell". Speaking to the BBC, he said: "Peter's behaviour was erratic. His temper was often explosive. I described it as like a, like a pendulum. He would go from one type of, kind of, personality to another. It was very hard to predict. And that kind of... left me feeling quite under siege... a kind of siege mentality in terms of the relentless shouting, the screaming, the hitting. The physical, emotional, psychological abuse as well as what happened later was just constantly on my mind. It was relentless to be honest."
In a statement after the IEP report, Mr Bone said: “None of the misconduct allegations against me ever took place.” No 10 and the Tory Party declined to comment. Mr Pursglove on Saturday refused to justify his decision to campaign with a shamed MP when confronted by the Mirror. Asked if he thought it was appropriate to be out canvassing with Mr Bone, he remained silent. | United Kingdom Politics |
It is not enough for Labour to be less rubbish than the Tories to win the next election, the party’s deputy leader has said.
Speaking at a recording of the Party Political podcast with comedian Matt Forde during the Edinburgh Festival Fringe on Friday, Angela Rayner said the party had to show it was “radical, realistic and responsible”.
With her party riding high in the polls ahead of a general election expected next year, the deputy leader said voters do not want to see Labour believe they “have it in the bag” ahead of ballots being cast, adding that a Labour government would have to be realistic about what could be achieved.
“I’ll just be safe and be a little less crap than these people and they’ll let me in – that’s not a way of getting there,” she said.
“But you’ve also got to be able to give people hope for the future, but be realistic about what you’re potentially taking on because the Tories have crashed the economy.
“We are in a bit of a managed decline spiral at the moment, so there has to be some radicalism in, like, the green prosperity plan and the vision of how we can build the industries, but also the realism of (saying) we won’t be able to do everything at the same time.”
Ms Rayner’s visit north of the border comes in the same week her party drew ever closer to the SNP in the polls, with a YouGov survey showing just four percentage points between the two in general election voting.
The party has been working to win back support after a slump following the 2014 independence referendum that saw the Tories seize second place at Holyrood, with Ms Rayner saying Labour had won back respect in Scotland.
“The landscape has changed towards Labour over the last couple of years,” she said.
“We’ve been working really hard to earn back that respect back because I think we lost it in Scotland, people were very emotionally charged because Scotland has always been traditionally quite a Labour area.
“I think they felt quite betrayed by Labour for a long time.”
The Labour deputy leader also shared her view on disruptive protests by groups like Just Stop Oil and This is Rigged, which have seen activists glue themselves to roads across the country and disrupt First Minister’s Questions in Scotland.
When she was 18 years old, Ms Rayner said, she would have seen such groups as an “irritant”, adding: “I don’t think it brings people round, in my opinion.”
She continued: “As someone who’s had to convince the public to go with what I want sometimes, especially as a union rep, pissing them off is not the way to bring them with you, in my opinion, there’s other ways of doing it.” | United Kingdom Politics |
It is the big summer dilemma which continues to divide cinema goers.
Getting immersed in fantasy with a guaranteed happy-ever-after ending or toiling through a long, drawn-out grind full of political intrigue.
Decisions, decisions.
You could say Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has taken the first option and gone to his happy place.
He is currently in California where he first met his wife and where he is treating his daughters to the delights of Disneyland.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has opted for the political grind, giving up his summer holidays in the hope of avoiding the nuclear option for Stormont.
Old wounds
Already the intrigue is starting to build as the DUP leader this week faced down his critics who he accused of trying to damage the party.
It was just one line in an email to members about wider unionist unity but a line which shone a light on old wounds clearly not yet healed.
Sir Jeffrey was not available to be questioned about the email; it was, for him, an internal party matter.
But that left the space free for those same critics he called out to give their take on the leader's swipe.
Opinions ranged from Sir Jeffrey is feeling the heat, getting frustrated and now biting back, to questions about his judgement, putting the focus back on party in-fighting and away from the government talks on the protocol.
But there was no sense of any push against the leader.
'Not into window dressing'
Maybe, said one Sir Jeffrey critic, too much is being made of the email at a time when there is little else on the political front to report.
But the timing cannot be ignored.
The email landed with members after a week in which the party leadership poured over and debated the government's response to the DUP's protocol demands.
It was signed off before the prime minister left for California, but it offered very little new, according to one senior DUP source.
"We are not into window dressing or comfort words, we need to see real meaningful change to restore Northern Ireland's place in the UK," they said.
Now the DUP is working on its response, but the gap is so wide there is little or no expectation of a breakthrough.
So the conversations may be getting harder within the DUP about what the party could live with in return for ending its Stormont boycott.
The language is also starting to harden.
Lords Dodds' damning verdict of the Windsor Framework is telling.
He praised a Lords' report last week for cutting though "the propaganda and spin" in exposing "the real truth" of the Windsor Framework.
Crucially, he concluded the Windsor Framework "utterly failed" the DUP's seven tests.
The same framework which the DUP leadership had previously concluded had made "significant progress" but needed "re-worked and changed".
For that reason the party voted against it in parliament.
Sir Jeffrey later set out five problem areas which he said needed to be resolved before his party would consider a return to Stormont.
At the time it felt like the DUP had moved beyond its seven tests.
Now Lord Dodds, with the approval of the party leadership, has put those tests firmly back in play.
For him, the Windsor Framework cements the Irish Sea border which fails a key DUP test and is therefore a deal breaker.
But for London and Brussels the deal is done and the Irish Sea border with its red and green lanes is here to stay.
Though Rishi Sunak insisted the "sense" of an Irish Sea border is gone in reality it is still there.
Minimal spot checks and paperwork will still be required for goods destined to stay in Northern Ireland using the green lane.
The text is clear: "Authorities will carry out proportionate risk-based and intelligence-led checks to ensure that these requirements are in place."
Nowhere else will such checks be required for goods moving within the UK.
'No appetite for compromise'
But if removing the Irish Sea border is now the acid test for the DUP then do not expect to see Stormont restored any time soon.
Setting the bar high could be a negotiating tactic as the party continues talks with the government.
Whatever the strategy, the room for manoeuvre in the negotiations is diminishing fast.
So, too, is the time to a reach a deal.
"There is a window between now and November but after that the Westminster election next year will be the focus and there will be no appetite for any compromise," predicted one DUP source.
But that window is complicated as key parts of the Windsor Framework including the green and red lanes come into operation in October.
Maybe not a good time for DUP hands to be on the levers of power at Stormont.
Mission Impossible?
The party may argue it is better to fight the framework from within rather than from the margins.
Five months after it was signed the Windsor Framework now feels more like a Windsor knot.
A knot which the DUP is desperate to unravel while London and Brussels are determined to tighten in a bid to improve relations.
There is also a knot starting to tighten within the DUP with some MLAs and some MPs pulling in very different directions.
Unravelling that bind to plot a path back to Stormont is going to be a big challenge for the DUP leader.
Another summer blockbuster springs to mind: Mission Impossible.
The easiest option might be to play the long game in the hope a Labour-led government, if elected, might set a new post-Brexit course.
In the meantime, Rishi Sunak returns from his happy place next week to an in-tray full of problems.
If we expect the Stormont stalemate to be near the top then we are, to borrow a phrase from Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris, this week "living on a prayer". | United Kingdom Politics |
Rupert Murdoch Was The Last Of The Press Barons
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Rupert Murdoch’s decision to retire as chairman of News Corp. and Fox Corp., making way for his eldest son Lachlan, marks the end of an era in the media, the era of the press barons. Or rather it marks the beginning of the end of the era, as it is difficult to believe that a retired Murdoch will devote himself entirely to the art of shuffleboard.
Murdoch is the only contemporary figure who can be spoken of in the same breath as the great press barons of yesteryear: Alfred Harmsworth, the Napoleon of Fleet Street who invented the tabloid; William Randolph Hearst, who perfected the arts of sensationalism, salaciousness and war-mongering; and Lord Beaverbrook, who competed with Hearst in his enthusiasm for blurring the line between reporting the news and making it. If Hearst gave the world Orson Wells’ Citizen Kane, and Beaverbrook Evelyn Waugh’s Lord Copper, Murdoch gave it Logan Roy, the foul-mouthed master of family dysfunction.
Murdoch’s contemporary press barons were bit players by comparison, either because they failed to match his global scope or because they flamed out. Conrad Black came closest in his global ambitions with an empire that stretched from Britain, where he owned the Telegraph and the Spectator, to Israel, Canada and the United States, but ended up in prison for mail fraud and obstruction of justice. (Donald Trump later pardoned him.) Robert Maxwell committed suicide after bankrupting his companies and raiding their pension funds. The Barclay Brothers, who also owned The Telegraph and the Spectator, only mattered in Britain, and their empire is now with the receivers. Arthur Gregg Sulzberger certainly wields enormous power as the sixth member of the Ochs-Sulzberger family to act as publisher of the New York Times, but, with all respect to young Sulzberger, he is no Rupert Murdoch. Perhaps the only person to come close was Axel Springer, the flamboyant owner of Bild and Die Welt, yet while Springer was frequently described as “the German Murdoch,” nobody refers to Murdoch as “the Australian Axel Springer.”
There is little chance that we will see any press barons in the future. The information revolution has moved beyond the newspaper to something more nebulous — a stream of headlines, images, clickbait and quick takes that is updated by the second rather than once a day. Information giants such as Google and Facebook are robbing newspapers of both their advertisers and readers (and, as Murdoch loves to complain, their content as well). It is true that a few moguls still exhibit interest in the print media — Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post and Steve Jobs’ widow, Laurene Powell Jobs, has a majority stake in The Atlantic. But for the most part, these are luxury brands controlled by people who made their money elsewhere rather than pistons in a financial empire. The Guardian is owned by a trust dominated by the great and the good (the Scott Trust Limited) and the Financial Times by a relatively unknown Japanese company (Nikkei Inc.). In 2021, just under half of all US adults turned to social media for news; a subsequent study in the UK showed that most people under 40 get their news from social media, particularly TikTok, rather than “the legacy media.”
Murdoch relished the raw power that owning newspapers gave him. He not only imposed a clear Thatcherite agenda on his ever-expanding stable of papers — editors might not have been sent an ideological memo, but they knew what got them ahead and what got them sacked. He loved pulling strings. He flirted with Tony Blair for years before throwing his weight behind him, inviting him in 1995 to make the lengthy journey to the Hayman Islands, Australia, to attend a News Corp conference. More recently, Rishi Sunak drafted a resignation letter from Boris Johnson’s cabinet but was persuaded to stay on by Rupert Murdoch executives.
In the 1980s, Murdoch also did something that no other press baron had dared do — freed the newspaper industry from the death grip of the print unions. Thanks to the unions’ ability to stop the presses, newspapers were, as the columnist Bernard Levin put it, “produced in conditions which combined a protection racket with a lunatic asylum,” vastly overmanned and riven with corrupt practices. Murdoch grasped more clearly than anybody else that a combination of modern technology and forward thinking could solve the problem for good and had the courage to weather the demonization of the establishment as well as the Labour Party.
He moved his titles from Fleet Street to Wapping, broke off negotiations with the unions, withstood a yearlong strike that saw up to 5,000 strikers besieging his Wapping headquarters, hurling missiles and chanting “burn, burn, burn the bastard,” and ended up more convinced than ever that confrontation rather than appeasement was the way forward. The move ushered in the last golden age of the newspaper industry, with innovative technology unleashed and advertising revenue pouring in. By the beginning of 1987, the number of print workers had been reduced from over 2,000 to 570 and the new presses were producing 33 million newspapers a week. Drexel Burnham Lambert estimated that the move to Wapping increased the value of his four London titles from $300 million to a billion. The Independent — the first new quality newspaper in decades and a direct challenge to Murdoch’s Times — would not have been able to get off the ground without Murdoch’s hard-edged policies.
What made Murdoch such a success as a press baron? Half the answer lies in his robustly conservative views. Many billionaires adopt the high-status views of the liberal establishment when they make it. Murdoch remained true to his instincts. Norman Angell once said that Harmsworth “possessed the common mind to an uncommon degree.” That is also true of the man Private Eye dubbed “the Dirty Digger.” Charles Krauthammer explained Murdoch’s success with Fox News by saying that he discovered “a niche market in American broadcasting — half the American people.” That is also true of his newspapers, particularly the British tabloids, which provided a template for Fox.
The other half of the answer lies in his taste for capitalism. Murdoch was the embodiment of the spirit of capitalism as described by Karl Marx — always in motion and always willing to profane all that is holy. (As a student at Oxford the young Murdoch had a bust of Lenin on his mantlepiece.) He took big risks in his relentless pursuit of the next deal. In 1990, his empire was minutes away from imploding as he desperately tried to roll over a $7.6 billion debt he had taken on in a bid to become the world’s biggest media magnate.
He also made some mistakes, as all great entrepreneurs must: He could have used the Wall Street Journal to crush the Financial Times as a global business newspaper but instead, largely out of detestation of elite liberalism, focused on challenging the New York Times. Yet this perpetual motion machine was also capable of investing for the long term: thanks to a successful drive for subscribers (3.78 million of them, 84% digital only) the Journal is worth about $10 billion, more than it was when he bought it in 2007 for what was generally regarded as an inflated figure of $5.6 billion; and, thanks to his sustained investment in digital technology, The Times and the Sunday Times have gone from a £70 million loss in 2009 to a £73 million profit in 2022.
The two more tough questions about Murdoch the press baron are whether he was good for the press and, more importantly, whether he was good for society at large. Murdoch was born with printer’s ink in his veins as the son of an Australian newspaper man. Newspapers are at the heart of his empire — he started his career at 21 by taking control of an Adelaide paper, The News, when his father died, and has been buying them ever since. His passion for print led him to pursue the Wall Street Journal with the same drive that set Captain Ahab to pursue his whale.
He enjoys the company of journalists — particularly what he would regard as “real journalists” who believe in breaking stories rather than producing virtue-puffing screeds designed to impress the Pulitzer Prize judges. People who have worked for him testify to his insatiable interest in news and surprising kindness to colleagues who have fallen ill. He turned down Elizabeth Holmes’ request that he kill the Journal’s expose of Theranos, her blood-testing company, despite becoming the biggest investor in the company in 2015 with a $100 million cash injection. Like Harmsworth, he believes that “news is something someone wants to suppress. Everything else is advertising.”
Yet the argument against him is strong: that he sacrificed journalistic standards in his pursuit of sensationalism and circulation. Evelyn Waugh’s son Auberon praised the “hairy-heeled, tit-and-bum merchant from Oz” for rescuing British newspapers from the tyranny of the unions but condemned him for banning alcohol in Wapping. “Free drunks produce better newspaper than sober slaves.” Murdoch can be forgiven for replacing some of the brilliant but less rough-and-tumble types who used to edit The Times and The Sunday Times such as Charles Douglas-Home and Harold Evans with more pugnacious figures such as Charlie Wilson, otherwise known as “the arse-kicking machine,” and his fellow Glaswegian, Andrew Neil. The times demanded it. But it’s impossible to forgive the behavior of his tabloids.
Back in 1969, he justified his decision to buy the News of the World to his formidable mother, who had expressed worries that the poor Brits had to have such entertainment because their lives were so wretched. But his willingness to rescue the Brits from a life of wretchedness through tabloid entertainment led inexorably to a mounting number of horrors: the routine invasion of privacy, most appallingly when Murdoch employees illegally accessed the voicemails of the murdered schoolgirl Milly Dowler; a campaign against the royal family that let in far too much light on the royal magic; and a culture of sexual exploitation which led The Sun to crown Russell Brand as its “shagger of the year” three years in a row.
This points to the argument against his impact on society at large. Murdoch’s combination of enthusiasm for capitalism and disdain for traditional values undoubtedly made sense when he burst onto the global scene in the 1970s. The Keynesian consensus had reached its limits. The establishment’s habit of appeasing the unions threatened to sink the economy. The press needed to adjust to the 1960s revolution in mores.
But over time the downside of Murdoch’s Manichean view of the world has become clearer. Rather than destroying the establishment, the entrepreneurial revolution has produced a new global establishment of unaccountable tycoons. As well as liberating us from outmoded conventions, the sexual revolution has exacted a price in the breakdown of the family and selfish behavior.
Murdoch is now in danger of becoming a victim of his own two great passions. Capitalism is marginalizing his beloved newspapers in pursuit of clicks and shares and user-generated content. Rather than holding the powerful to account, they pander to the prejudices of their audiences, doing away with the need not only for print workers but also for journalists themselves. Populism is also out of control. Murdoch is rightly criticized for doing his bit to unleash US populism by creating Fox News, his most successful cash cow. But the network has also released forces that do not always fit in with his world view: isolationism in foreign policy, hostility to immigration, support for big government and, above all, Trumpism. The monster is now a threat to Frankenstein.
At the height of the phone-hacking scandal, when Murdoch was summoned to give evidence to the House of Commons Select Committee, Conrad Black wrote an article in the Financial Times in which he dubbed Murdoch “a great bad man.” His success breaking the print unions and ushering in a golden age of print journalism qualify him as a great man. But his willingness to stoke the forces of Trumpism over the years undoubtedly justify the modifier of “bad.” The great question hanging over the United States, as it goes into the next election, and indeed the world, as Trumpian populism strengthens and mutates, will be just how “bad” is “bad.”
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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Adrian Wooldridge is the global business columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former writer at the Economist, he is author of “The Aristocracy of Talent: How Meritocracy Made the Modern World.”
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | United Kingdom Politics |
Once again I come away from the Covid Inquiry convinced Boris was the only sane man in No10. This is not what we are supposed to think, of course.
In a simpler age, the Inquiry counsels would cheerfully duck the former PM in a pond: forced to conform with modern methods of due process, they instead invite ex-colleagues to rake up any gossip they might have heard to prove that Old Man Johnson did, on the night of the full moon “cast a spell that gave Covid to my cows”.
The star of the latest show trial was Patrick Vallance, or rather his diary, which he was keen to stress was never meant to be read.
So, let’s read it then. May 4: “PM is clearly bamboozled.” May 14: “PM still confused.” June 11: “Watching PM get his head around stats is awful.” July 8: “Is he colourblind?” The latter refers to Boris’s inability to comprehend graphs, and such detail was lingered over by Andrew O’Connor KC as if it were proof that we were led by a mental defective.
But Sir Patrick noted that the PM “gave up science at 15”, and that 90 per cent of civil servants have no qualification in the subject either.
Perhaps it was because he lacked self-confidence around academics that, after a bit of moaning, Boris invariably did as they asked - and Sir Patrick is the latest witness to conclude that any dithering on the Government’s part only delayed the first lockdown by “a few days.”
In the absence of proof that Boris personally murdered several million grandmas, counsel falls back on questioning his psychology, claiming that he said old people had a “good innings” or that, at one point, Sir Patrick thought he looked “broken.”
It was lockdown! We all went mad. Several friends hit the bottle; I bought a slow cooker; Dippy Dennis, who lives in the attic flat, became a woman (he de-transitioned after reading about the menopause).
The outbursts attributed to Boris simply prove that he’s as flawed as the rest of us - and what is the alternative?
The KCs imply that politicians should be automatons who obey civil servants, never question a consensus and lack all personality, even though the evidence from South America, where Argentinians have just elected a certifiable anarcho-capitalist who talks to his dead dog via a medium, is that this is not what the public wants.
Politics is showbiz, not a chemistry lesson. While the Inquiry’s ratings slither to something in the low BBC2s, Nigel Farage is reaching a new generation of voters via I’m a Celebrity - and we are surely not long from Michael Fabricant appearing on Naked Attraction. Compulsive viewing, if only to see if he’s made to remove the wig as well.
“I do think the prime minister was influenced a lot by the press,” said Sir Patrick, which in these circles is akin to saying “he did truck with the Devil and ride the sky on a broom”. Oh, but if only he’d listened to us more – and to his own libertarian instincts! I wouldn’t have one very expensive, unused Crock-Pot to sell. | United Kingdom Politics |
The movement of people between countries is a natural and positive aspect of freedom. Individuals relocate for various reasons such as employment opportunities, education, family ties, retirement or seeking protection. This mobility can contribute to economic growth and address skill shortages.
However, challenges arise when migration reaches significant and imbalanced levels, particularly from less affluent countries. In such cases, unexpected and unplanned population growth strains essential services, transportation, housing and healthcare.
Contrary to the assertion that Britain has always been a “nation of immigrants”, historical records show that, for centuries, it was predominantly a country of emigration. Between 1815 and 1930, around 12 million Britons emigrated, maintaining a consistent net outflow of British citizens. Immigration to the UK was historically modest, experiencing a notable shift in the late 1950s with unregulated inflows from the New Commonwealth.
Whilst the early 1990s saw annual net immigration hover around 40,000, even dipping into negative territory in 1993, a policy shake-up under Labour post-1997 triggered a substantial surge, reaching about 200,000 per year. Today, that surge has skyrocketed to an unprecedented 606,000,
Migration Watch UK predicts that if net migration persists at this record level, Britain’s population could well soar to 83-87 million by 2046. This surge, equivalent to fifteen new cities the size of Birmingham, prompted our recent analysis. We examined the demands of fifteen new Birminghams on essential infrastructure like schools, hospitals, roads, bus lanes, colleges and police stations.
Allowing net migration to continue at this pace would place an unbearable strain on public services, particularly in health, transport and education. Table 1 outlines the essential infrastructure units required for this scenario by 2046:
Economic benefits from immigration do exist, but beyond a certain point they plateau, whilst problems and costs surge. In crowded cities like London, rapid population growth strains public services, roads and housing, leaving the British taxpayer to foot the bill through higher taxes.
Large-scale immigration also plays havoc with existing infrastructure and the use of land, slashing productivity and living standards. Smaller countries, like Luxembourg, Singapore, Denmark and Norway, thrive without a massive influx. With a population of 67 million and untapped labour reserves, Britain doesn’t “need” large-scale immigration. Sure, it pumps up GDP, but not per capita GDP which is the real measure of economic benefit.
The real-world impact on public services can be extremely negative. Crunching local authority data from Birmingham City Council and multiplying it by fifteen gives a snapshot of the impending infrastructure chaos if migration maintains its record level of 606,000. If this net migration does not ease up, Britain is looking at constructing 6,675 new schools, 2,640 surgeries, 135 hospitals, 75 universities, 75 police stations and 165 colleges by 2046. It’s important to note that these projections don’t factor in potential changes in geography and future settlement patterns, as they are unpredictable. Nonetheless, these numbers offer a snapshot of the infrastructure challenges that the UK government may confront if net migration persists at the current record level of 606,000.
Now, let’s zoom in on the transport nightmare. If migration keeps its foot on the gas until 2046, Britain’s got to lay down hundreds of miles of new roads and bus lanes. Prepare for diseconomies of congestion — traffic jams, wasted fuel and a hefty bill for freight delays. In 2022, the average London driver lost £1,377 in congestion, whilst drivers across the country missed out on £707. According to the INRIX traffic scorecard, Birmingham is the fourth most congested city in the UK, with an average “hours lost” of 73 hours.
This surge in population growth offers no silver lining for the denizens of our compact island, in fact, quite the opposite. Whilst immigration may marginally rejuvenate the age structure, presenting a slight reprieve in the dependency ratio, it’s a far cry from a remedy for the overarching issue of population ageing. To maintain the status quo, an unending and substantial flow of migration becomes the disconcerting prescription.
Recipient nations stand to gain from the influx of skilled professionals and talented students, a reality well-known to anyone familiar with the academic realm. Such exchanges, traditionally balanced, have been par for the course amongst developed nations for quite some decades.
Yet, not every migrant enters the UK with high-skilled employment or study as their primary objective. Dependants and spouses may face barriers to employment, either due to inadequate qualifications or cultural norms. Employers, especially in sectors with lacklustre productivity, welcome immigrants willing to accept low wages and unattractive conditions often shunned by locals.
The affluent may see gains, but the less fortunate are left wanting
Debates linger on the fiscal gains of migration, with most studies indicating meagre benefits, and some even suggesting a negative impact. The affluent may see gains, but the less fortunate are left wanting.
Employers may revel in the readily available and pliant immigrant workforce, but some have developed an unhealthy reliance. A lax approach to immigration, particularly in the realm of low-wage workers, distorts the economic landscape and fosters dependency. The proliferation of low-wage, low-productivity and low-skill enterprises is certainly not the hallmark of a modern, knowledge-based economy.
Large-scale immigration might have worked wonders for sparsely populated countries when they needed a larger population to develop their resources, but in densely packed Britain and especially in England, it’s a different story. Current migration generates serious congestion problems and hikes the cost of land and housing. The rapid population surge elbows out other investments, whilst creating a bottleneck for the increased population’s infrastructure needs.
The allure of a bigger talent pool and increased specialisation resulting from population growth needs a reality check. As the population swells, the UK economy might benefit in certain sectors, but the downsides — the strain on land, housing, services and infrastructure — can’t be swept under the rug.
Our paper foresees intolerable pressures on public services, particularly health, transport and education, as the UK population balloons. The fix? Slam the brakes with an annual limit on immigration, balancing business needs, international commitments and keeping the inflow in check with outflow. It’s time for a strategic exit ramp to avoid the gridlock that mass immigration might bring to the British way of life.
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday that Russia prevailing in its invasion of Ukraine would be “absolutely catastrophic” for the world, as it would legitimize further aggressions elsewhere. Speaking with CNN “State of the Union” co-anchor Jake Tapper in Germany on the sidelines of the G7 Summit, Johnson called President Biden’s support for Ukrainians “extraordinary.” “I would just say to people in the United States that this is something that America historically does and has to do,” Johnson said. “And that is to step up for peace and freedom and democracy.” Johnson will meet with Biden and other leaders of the world’s wealthiest democracies at this week’s G7 Summit, which will be followed by a NATO summit in Spain. The Biden administration on Thursday announced its latest security package for Ukraine, bringing the total U.S. security assistance to $6.1 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Biden last month signed a $40 billion package passed by Congress that includes security, humanitarian and economic assistance to Ukraine in the months ahead. “I would argue that that is a price worth paying for democracy and freedom, because when you think about the postwar period…think what that achieved, the decades and decades of peace and freedom,” Johnson said on Sunday. After failing to take Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv, Russia has shifted its focus to the Donbas region in the east, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian military for years. The U.K.’s Defense Ministry said earlier on Sunday that Russian forces had likely taken the city of Sieverodonetsk, which it called a “significant achievement.” “If we let Putin get away with it and just annex, conquer sizable parts of a free, independent, sovereign country, which is what he is poised to do, if not the whole thing, then the consequences for the world are absolutely catastrophic,” Johnson told Tapper. Johnson said the repercussions could extend to places like Taiwan, where fears are rising that China will attempt to seize control in the coming years, either through military or economic aggression. At the Spain summit, NATO leaders are expected to discuss a new strategic concept that the White House said last week would reflect those threats from China. “That is what is ultimately disastrous,” Johnson said. “Not just for democracy and for the independence of countries, but for economic stability.” | Europe Politics |
10:16AM
Mykolaiv university destroyed after missiles rain down 9:54AM
70pc of Germans back Ukraine despite high energy prices A strong majority of Germans wants to continue supporting Ukraine in fighting against Russia even if it means paying more for energy, according to a survey published on Friday.
Some 70 per cent of those polled backed Germany's support for Ukraine, though the number of people who wanted stronger military support dropped to 35pc from 44pc in early July, found the survey conducted between July 12-14 by broadcaster ZDF.
Twenty-two percent said they did not want Germany to support Ukraine, with the goal of returning to lower energy prices, it added.
Relief measures aimed at helping Germans shoulder higher costs due to the war, including cut-price public transport tickets and cheaper petrol, don't go far enough, said more than two-thirds of those polled. Just 20pc found them satisfactory.
The survey polled 1,167 randomly selected voters by phone. 9:30AM
EU to target Russian gold in next sanctions package The European Union will target Russian gold exports in its next sanction package and seek to "close exit routes" for those bypassing its earlier packages, an EU commissioner has said.
The EU has so far approved six sanction packages against Russia. The last one passed in June imposed a ban on most Russian oil imports.
The EU will look into "ways we could slap a sanction regime on gold, which is an important commodity for exports from Russia", Maros Sefcovic, deputy head of the European Commission, said in Prague.
"As soon as we reach an agreement at the level of member states, we will publish it," he said ahead of an informal meeting of EU affairs ministers held by the Czech presidency of the 27-nation bloc.
The move follows a ban on gold exports from Russia agreed by the world's most industrialised nations at a G7 meeting at the end of June.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna, who is attending the meeting in Prague, urged the EU to adopt a new sanctions package on Thursday.
"Nothing makes Russia so far feel accountable for (its) crimes," she told reporters. 9:16AM
Brittney Griner's lawyers say she was prescribed medical cannabis Lawyers defending U.S. basketball player Brittney Griner have told a Russian court she was prescribed medical cannabis in the United States for a chronic injury, a Reuters journalist at the courtroom reported.
Griner pled guilty to drugs charges which carry a prison sentence of up to ten years after she was detained at a Moscow airport in February carrying vape cartridges with hashish oil. 8:55AM
G20 must act to address short-term food insecurity crisis - US U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has urged G20 economies to take urgent action to address a short-term food insecurity crisis exacerbated by Russia's war in Ukraine, and avoid market-distorting export restrictions and stockpiling.
Ms Yellen, speaking at a meeting of G20 finance officials in Indonesia, said countries should target fiscal support measures to help those most in need, rather than adopting costly and regressive blanket subsidies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was "using food as a weapon of war," she said, citing "the destruction of agricultural facilities, theft of grain and farm equipment, and the effective blockade of Black Sea ports."
Ms Yellen said poor households in the poorest countries were the most directly affected, setting back development and undermining efforts to eradicate poverty.
"We must take action to address the short-term food insecurity crisis and, equally importantly, the longer-term drivers of food insecurity, including the nexus with climate change," she said. "The speed and wisdom of our decisions now will make the difference on whether we get the current crisis under control."
Ms Yellen said G20 countries should leverage the existing food security and agriculture architecture, and insist that the multilateral development banks, the Rome-based food agencies and the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) and others respond more urgently.
"We don’t need new institutions. We need robust coordination, knowledge sharing, research and development, financing, and action," she said, lauding creation of the Global Alliance for Food Security as a helpful move. 8:36AM
Russia labels investigation website Bellingcat 'undesirable' Russian prosecutors on Friday branded the investigations website Bellingcat as "undesirable", saying it posed a security "threat" to the country, Russian agencies reported.
The comments come as Russia orchestrates an unprecedented media and opposition crackdown since sending troops to Ukraine in February.
Bellingcat, which has produced reports on Moscow's Ukraine offensive, had already been branded a "foreign agent" in Russia last year.
The General Prosecutor's Office labelled it "undesirable" with another Latvia-based investigations website, The Insider, and a Czech institute, the Central and Eastern Europe Law Initiative (CEELI).
It told Russian agencies that they pose a "threat to the constitutional order and security of the Russian Federation".
Under the "undesirables" law, Russians who maintain ties with such organisations could face heavy fines or even jail terms of up to six years.
Bellingcat and The Insider - which often produce joint investigations - were included in a list of "foreign agents" last year.
Entities identified as foreign agents must disclose sources of funding and label publications with a tag or face fines. 8:06AM
Europe 'shot itself in the lungs' with sanctions on Russia, Orban says The European Union has "shot itself in the lungs" with ill-considered economic sanctions on Russia, which, unless rolled back, risk destroying the European economy, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said.
Gas supplies to Europe have tightened and fuel costs have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February and subsequent sanctions, leaving countries scrambling to refill storage and diversify supply channels. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation".
The surge in gas and electricity prices forced nationalist Mr Orban to curtail a years-long cap on utility prices for higher-usage households on Wednesday, rolling back one of the 59-year-old prime minister's signature economic policies.
"Initially, I thought we had only shot ourselves in the foot, but now it is clear that the European economy has shot itself in the lungs, and it is gasping for air," Mr Orban, a long-time sanctions critic, told public radio in an interview.
Mr Orban said Ukraine needed help, but European leaders should reconsider their strategy, as sanctions have caused widespread damage to the European economy without weakening Russia or bringing the months-long war closer to any resolution.
"The sanctions do not help Ukraine, however, they are bad for the European economy and if it goes on like this, they will kill off the European economy," he said. "What we see right now is unbearable."
"The moment of truth must come in Brussels, when leaders admit they have made a miscalculation, that the sanctions policy was based on wrong assumptions and it must be changed." 7:41AM
G20 finance ministers meet in Bali Top financial officials from the G20 are meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali seeking strategies to counter the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, inflation and other global crises.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati opened the two-day meeting by urging fellow finance ministers, central bank chiefs and other leaders to find ways to "build bridges, not walls." She said the consequences of failure, especially for less wealthy nations, would be "catastrophic."
"Millions and millions if not billions of people are depending on us," Ms Indrawati said.
One key goal of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and some other Western financial officials is gaining agreement on setting a price cap on Russian oil that might help bring energy costs under control and alleviate the decades-high inflation seen in many countries while also limiting Moscow's access to revenues to fund its war effort.
"A price cap on Russian oil is one of our most powerful tools to address the pain Americans and families across the world are feeling at the gas pump and the grocery store right now, a limit on the price of Russian oil," Ms Yellen said at news briefing Thursday in Bali that was shown online. S Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen (R) stands with Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani (L) during the G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Bali Credit:
SONNY TUMBELAKA/POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock /Shutterstock 6:59AM
North Korea outrage over Ukraine relations North Korea's foreign ministry said on Friday that Ukraine had no right to raise sovereignty issues after joining the United States' "unjust, illegal" actions that breached Pyongyang's sovereignty.
North Korea's state media released a statement from the ministry after formally recognising two Russian-backed breakaway self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine as independent states.
Ukraine severed relations with North Korea after the move, calling it an attempt to undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
But the isolated country's foreign ministry defended the decision, saying Ukraine had already aided US-led actions including sanctions over the North's weapons programmes.
North Korea has said its nuclear and missile programmes are a self-defensive deterrence, and accused the US of maintaining "hostile policy" by imposing international sanctions and holding military drills with South Korea. 6:38AM
Moscow: Ukraine must accept 'territorial realities' A top Russian official has said that Moscow would respond positively should Kyiv be ready to resume peace negotiations, but that Ukraine must accept the "territorial realities" of the situation, the Interfax news agency reported. Emergency services crews at the site of the Russian missile strike in downtown Vinnytsia Credit:
ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock The United States has called on Russia to release Ukrainians it has forced out of their home country and allow outside observers, citing reports Moscow was putting Ukrainian children up for adoption and "disappearing" thousands of others.
It comes as Ukraine's top war crimes prosecutor and European judicial authorities met on Thursday to coordinate investigations into atrocities during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, warning that a failure to do so would embolden autocrats. 6:30AM
Putin keeps Russian company details secret Russian president Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill banning the dissemination of information on Russian companies and individuals who could face international sanctions.
The law explicitly bans from internet or media publication – without written permission – any information about transactions made or planned by Russian individuals or legal entities participating in foreign economic activity.
It also suspends for three years the obligatory publication of key financial and governance information by major Russian state corporations. 6:21AM
Bolsonaro: I know how to resolve the war Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has said he knows how the war between Russia and Ukraine could be "resolved" and that he will pitch his suggestions to Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom he is set to have a phone meeting next week.
"I'll tell him my opinion, what I think," Bolsonaro said.
"I know how it could be resolved. But I won't tell anyone." 5:40AM
Yellen condemns Russia's 'brutal' war US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Bali, Indonesia Credit:
Made Nagi US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has condemned Russia's "brutal and unjust war" in Ukraine and said Russian finance officials taking part in a G20 meeting on Friday shared responsibility for the "horrific consequences" of the war.
Ms Yellen, speaking at the opening session of the gathering of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers in Bali, Indonesia, welcomed Ukraine's finance minister and blamed the negative spillovers of the war "solely" on Russia, a Treasury official said.
Russian Deputy Finance Minister Timur Maksimov was in Bali for the meetings, while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was participating virtually. 5:35AM
G20 urged to reach consensus to avoid catastrophe Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said on Friday it was vital for G20 finance leaders to reach a consensus during talks in Bali, warning otherwise it could be "catastrophic" for low-income countries facing soaring food and energy prices.
Finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies are meeting on the resort island, as host Indonesia tries to find common ground in a group frayed by the Ukraine war and rising economic pressures from soaring inflation.
Sri Mulyani said the world had high hopes that the group would be able to find a solution to the triple threat of war, rising commodity prices and their spillover effects on the ability of low-income countries to repay debt.
"We are acutely aware that the cost of our failure to work together is more than we can afford. The humanitarian consequences for the world, and especially for many low income countries would be catastrophic," she said. 5:00AM
Battlefield boost for Ukraine US-made precision rockets have given Ukraine forces a major battlefield boost since they were introduced in June, tilting the balance against the Russians and possibly forcing Moscow to pause its offensive, experts said.
Since mid-June, using the Himars missile systems, Ukraine has destroyed more than 20 major Russian ammunition depots and command posts that were previously too far behind the front lines to be reached by traditional artillery.
But experts also caution that the new weapons are no panacea, and that the country needs more weapons and radars systems to use in combination to defeat the Russians. 4:36AM
Russia ‘using stolen Western weapons’ Russia could have used captured Western weapons to commit and cover-up atrocities in Ukraine, officials fear, as Volodymyr Zelensky called for a Nuremberg-style court to hold Moscow to account.
The Telegraph understands investigators are exploring evidence that suggests the Kremlin’s invasion forces could have used the tactic in an attempt to cover-up suspected war crimes.
Having heavy weaponry fall into Russian hands is also a chief concern among Western governments donating equipment to Kyiv.
READ MORE: Russia ‘using stolen Western weapons to commit and cover up war crimes’ 4:33AM
Zelensky: Use Russian assets to compensate victims of terror Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for creating a mechanism for confiscating Russian assets around the world and using them to compensate the victims of "Russian terror".
Ukraine's Interior Minister, Denys Monastyrsky, echoed Mr Zelensky, calling the missile attack in Vinnytsia a "war crime" intended to intimidate Ukrainians while the country's forces held out in the east. He said several dozen people were detained for questioning on suspicion that the Russian forces had received targeting assistance from someone on the ground. 4:13AM
Little Liza, 4, among those killed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that among those killed in Vinnytsia was a four-year-old girl called Liza, whose mother was badly wounded.
A video of Liza, twirling in a lavender dress in a field of lavender during happy times, was widely shared on social media.
"Today, our hearts are bleeding, and our eyes are full of tears because our family of many thousands has lost one of our own," the charity Down Syndrome wrote.
"They were just on their way from a speech-therapy class, and they just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time." This beautiful girl from Vinnytsia, Ukraine was killed by Russians today. She had a Down syndrome, problems with heart and walking, but her Mum never gave up on her and had an Instagram profile dedicated to her with 19k followers where she educated others on these health issues. pic.twitter.com/fxnXPycROd— Maria Romanenko (@rommari) July 14, 2022 Mr Zelensky's wife later posted that she had met this "wonderful girl" while filming a Christmas video with a group of children, who were given oversized ornaments to paint.
"The little mischievous girl then managed in a half an hour to paint not only herself, her holiday dress, but also all the other children, me, the cameramen and the director ... Look at her alive, please," Olena Zelenska wrote in a note accompanying the video. We met while recording a video for Christmas holidays. The little girl managed to paint with dye not only herself, her dress, but also all the other children, me, the cameramen and the director just in half an hour... Look at her, alive, please. Crying with her loved ones. 2/2— Олена Зеленська (@ZelenskaUA) July 14, 2022 Blood stains on a baby stroller after a deadly Russian missile attack in Vinnytsia Credit:
Efrem Lukatsky/AP 3:33AM
'They knew where they were hitting' A heavily damaged office building in Vinnytsia Credit:
Alexey Furman/Getty Images Officials said Kalibr cruise missiles fired from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea damaged a medical clinic, offices, stores and residential buildings in Vinnytsia, a city 268km (167 miles) southwest of the capital, Kyiv.
Vinnytsia region Governor Serhiy Borzov said Ukrainian air defences downed two of the four incoming Russian missiles.
"It was a building of a medical organisation. When the first rocket hit it, glass fell from my windows," said Vinnytsia resident Svitlana Kubas, 74.
"And when the second wave came, it was so deafening that my head is still buzzing. It tore out the very outermost door, tore it right through the holes." A rescuer takes a break in Vinnytsia Credit:
Alexey Furman/Getty Images Mr Borzov said 36 apartment buildings were damaged and residents were evacuated. Along with hitting buildings, the missiles ignited a fire that spread to 50 cars in a parking lot, officials said.
"These are quite high-precision missiles," Mr Borzov said. "They knew where they were hitting." What remains of downtown Vinnytsia after Russia's attack Credit:
ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Among the buildings damaged in the strike was the House of Officers, a Soviet-era concert hall.
Margarita Simonyan, head of the state-controlled Russian television network RT, said military officials told her a building in Vinnytsia was targeted because it housed Ukrainian Nazis. 3:22AM
Zelensky accuses Russia of deliberately targeting civilians Ukrainian emergency workers and military work at the site of the Russian missile strike in downtown Vinnytsia Credit:
ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Ukraine's president has accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilians in locations without military value.
Volodymyr Zelensky's outrage came after Russian missiles struck a city in central Ukraine on Thursday, killing at least 23 people and wounding more than 100 others far from the front lines.
National Police Chief Ihor Klymenko said only six bodies had been identified so far, while 39 people were still missing. Toys are scattered near shattered glass in an apartment damaged in the missile strike on Vinnytsia Credit:
Alexey Furman/Getty Images Three children younger than 10 where among the dead.
Of the 66 people hospitalised, five remained in a critical condition while 34 sustained severe injuries, Ukraine's State Emergency Service said.
Russia denied targeting civilians.
"Russia only strikes at military targets in Ukraine. The strike on Vinnytsia targeted an officers' residence, where preparations by Ukrainian armed forces were underway," Evgeny Varganov, a member of Russia's permanent UN mission, said in an address to the chamber. 3:05AM
Today's top stories Russia could have used captured Western weapons to commit and cover-up atrocities in Ukraine, officials fear, as Volodymyr Zelensky called for a Nuremberg-style court to hold Moscow to account
Russian missiles struck the centre of a western Ukrainian city on Thursday, killing three children including a toddler pushing a pram
The Kremlin has ordered a “volunteer mobilisation” of up to 34,000 soldiers by the end of next month to patch up its battered forces in Ukraine, analysts have said
French President Emmanuel Macron has accused Russia of using energy as a “weapon of war” as the chief executive of oil and gas giant Shell warned gas rationing in Europe this winter was possible | Europe Politics |
The residential area of Kyiv hit by four missile strikes on Sunday was also targeted in April, as the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, visited the city. This time – after weeks during which the capital had not been attacked – Vladimir Putin doubtless aimed to fire a warning to G7 leaders gathering in Bavaria, and before a Nato summit in Madrid this week. A seven-year-old girl pulled injured from the rubble was among those who paid the price for Mr Putin’s brutal piece of symbolism.Calculated outrages such as this, and Monday’s strike on a busy shopping centre in central Ukraine, must be met with unity and renewed focus from the west. This is an ominous moment in the war. The Kremlin’s strategic refocusing of its ambitions on the eastern Donbas is now leading to significant Russian territory gains in the region. Mr Putin’s cynical blockade of the Black Sea port of Odesa is, meanwhile, driving food prices up in developing nations, creating a hunger crisis which risks being associated with western sanctions on Moscow. In the west, the politics of the cost of living crisis – in part a consequence of the war – is destabilising governments and leaders who have presented a united front since February’s invasion. Understandably, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, fears that global repugnance at Russia’s actions since February may morph into wearied resignation and acceptance of a fait accompli in the east.The Kremlin’s evolving long game must not be permitted to succeed. As Moscow’s aggression exacts a fearful toll on the Ukrainian population and on the country’s military forces, western leaders must seek ways to intensify the pressure on Mr Putin while continuing to ensure that Nato is not dragged directly into the war. In Bavaria, unveiling a new support package for Ukraine, G7 leaders struck the right note, pledging “financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support” for “as long as it takes”. Turning that rhetoric into effective action will be far from easy.Most urgently, there must be swift delivery of the defensive military assistance Ukraine desperately needs, particularly the modern air defence systems Mr Zelenskiy requested in his meeting with G7 leaders. But as Mr Putin’s regime continues to benefit from the rocketing global price of energy – compromising the effect of western sanctions – new forms of economic pressure and tactics are also needed. A suite of new measures announced in Bavaria, including higher tariffs on Russian goods, is welcome. More significant may be an emerging consensus in favour of a global cap on the price of Russian oil and gas. Such a cap would both starve the Kremlin of funding and reduce inflationary pressures on importers. Pipeline logistics would make it difficult for Moscow to find alternative gas markets in the short term.That, at least, is the optimistic scenario. But for a worldwide price ceiling to work effectively, greater buy-in from other countries around the world will be needed. This will not be straightforward. India, for instance, has ramped up imports of Russian oil since the invasion. In developing countries, an information war needs to be fought against Mr Putin’s disingenuous attempts to weaponise the Black Sea blockade. Concrete economic assistance should be delivered to these regions. To win hearts and minds for Ukraine, the west needs to show its solidarity and goodwill does not run out at the borders of Europe. | Europe Politics |
Labour figures are urging MPs not to “undermine the party in Scotland” by supporting the SNP motion demanding a ceasefire next week, the Guardian understands.
Keir Starmer is facing a rebellion by as many as a dozen shadow ministers, who sources say are ready to resign rather than vote against calling for a ceasefire in the Middle East, which Starmer has refused to back.
Whips in Starmer’s party have been tasked with ringing round MPs, including frontbenchers, to make it “clear that [Labour MPs] shouldn’t make Wednesday about the Labour party”.
When the Commons’ king’s speech debate comes to an end on Wednesday, it is likely there will be a vote on the SNP’s amendment, which calls on the government to “join with the international community in urgently pressing all parties to agree to an immediate ceasefire”.
A script seen by the Guardian instructs party whips to be firm with frontbenchers, and “point out that if Labour was in government they would have to vote against”.
It came after Starmer said he understood the “emotions” behind the ceasefire calls of some in the party.
The script begins with MPs being reassured: “How are you? We know things are difficult and we’re trying to do all we can to help.”
The text later becomes firmer however: “These votes will not change the facts on the ground … The choice on Wednesday is to stick together or to support the SNP over the Labour party and undermine our party in Scotland.”
At least 68 Labour MPs have in some form called for a ceasefire, with many supporting Zarah Sultana’s backbench Labour amendment seeking one immediately.
The pressure on Starmer’s authority comes from the 17 frontbenchers who have put out statements or written or shared posts on social media also calling for an immediate end to the conflict.
Labour officials have not yet decided whether the party will vote at all as they “don’t usually vote on SNP motions”, but they are “seeking to find a route through for everyone”.
“Supporting the SNP motion would undermine the Labour party in Scotland and isn’t in line with our policy position. We will therefore not be supporting the SNP motion,” whips will tell MPs.
It comes weeks after Labour won a stunning victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection, with the Scottish Labour leader ,Anas Sarwar, saying it was “proof that Scotland will lead the way in delivering a UK Labour government”.
Pollsters said the level of support in that byelection put Labour within touching distance of winning the next Holyrood election in 2026 as Labour strategists stated they could win 28 Scottish seats, nearly all from the SNP.
Some insiders have pointed to the latest YouGov polling to prove Labour has been so far unaffected by it deep splits over the party’s position on the Israel-Gaza conflict, and may be unaffected by the frustrations of Muslim members.
But Starmer’s position was put under intense pressure after Sarwar attacked the Labour leader for his refusal to call for a ceasefire alongside the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, who has the biggest Labour mandate, and the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham.
One Labour source said: “This shows how poor Starmer’s political judgment is at the moment. Why can’t MPs have a free vote while Starmer explains his position as a leader and listens? He’s been so lucky with how poor the Tories have been.”
Earlier this week, insiders told the Guardian four shadow ministers were prepared to quit in the coming days, with up to 10 others on “resignation watch”. A source noted: “A week is a long time in politics.”
Many Labour MPs say they are under huge pressure from party members and constituents to take a firmer stance against the Israeli invasion of Gaza, as tens of thousands of people are expected to take part in pro-Palestinian protests in London this weekend. | United Kingdom Politics |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! Iran has been seeking to increase its influence in South America and undermine American interests and security, drawing little response from the Biden administration as it tries to salvage the Obama-era nuclear agreement with the country."The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are much more actively involved in subversive and assassination issues," James Phillips, the senior research fellow for foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation, told Fox News.Phillips pointed to a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, D.C., noting that Iranian agents sought to partner with a Mexican drug cartel to carry out the plot on U.S. soil."This was over 10 years ago…. it's been going on a long time," Phillips said.BIDEN LACKS COHERENT STRATEGY ON IRAN THAT IS 'WEEKS' FROM BUILDING NUCLEAR BOMB, AIDS RUSSIA: EXPERT Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)Iran's outreach in Latin America has seemingly begun to pick up again in recent years, most recently with the appearance of a mysterious Venezuelan-flagged plane in Argentina last month. The plane, belonging to a U.S. sanctioned Iranian operator, landed in Ezeiza with a crew of 14 Venezuelans and five Iranians, one of whom was a senior Iranian official.According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the plane has since been seized and an investigation has been launched, but exactly why it was allowed to land in Argentina and what it was doing there remains somewhat a mystery. Argentinian federal police searched the plane and found material used for military cyber defense operations on board, while it was reported that the captain of the plane was Gholamreza Ghasemi, a board member and manager of Fars Air Qeshm, a U.S. sanctioned Iranian airline.Argentinian President Alberto Fernández has insisted there was nothing suspicious about the plane, while the country's security minister claimed the captain only coincidentally shared the same name as Ghasemi, a claim contradicted by Paraguayan intelligence and questioned by Argentinian members of Congress.BELGIUM PARLIAMENT PASSES IRAN TREATY THAT MAY LEAD TO RELEASE OF CONVICTED TERRORISTThough Iran has a long history of partnership with Venezuela, a country with a history of seeking to undermine American interests, Iranian cooperation with democratic Argentina would be a more troubling development for the U.S. in the region.A week before the plane landed in Ezeiza, both Iran and Argentina applied for membership in the BRICS group, a group of five emerging economies that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The group, which has held an annual summit since 2009, has a significant influence over world affairs, casting itself as an alternative to U.S. dominated Western alliances.An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson told Reuters that membership in BRICS would result in added values for both sides," while Russia boasted that the U.S. was failing to cut of its international influence amid its ongoing war in Ukraine.Iranian influence in South America would be beneficial to Russia, which under President Vladimir Putin's leadership, has made it a goal to erode U.S. influence in the region.PUTIN MEETS WITH IRAN, TURKEY IN TEHRAN AMID DEADLY WAR IN UKRAINE"Moscow has been deepening ties with fellow authoritarian regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, as part of a long-term strategy to establish permanent presence in the region," Rebekah Koffler the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, former DIA intelligence officer, and the author of "Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America, told Fox News. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, greet each other as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stands at right, during their meeting in Tehran, Iran. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)Koffler said Russia's aims are not only to gain access to new markets and resources as much of the world attempts to isolate the country, but to demonstrate to the U.S. that it can operate militarily in America's backyard."Ultimately, Russia wants to build a formidable force posture on America's doorstep, as a deterrent, which Moscow could activate in the event of Washington intervening with Putin’s plans to re-establish control of Russia’s former Soviet states, such as Ukraine," Koffler said.The mysterious plane in Argentina is not the only hint Iran is seeking to bolster its influence in Latin America. Earlier this year, Iranian Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaee was an invited guest to the inaugural ceremony of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega. Rezaee, a former member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, is wanted in Argentina for allegedly masterminding the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires.WHITE HOUSE ACCUSES IRAN OF GIFTING 'SEVERAL HUNDRED' DRONES TO RUSSIAOrtega has long been a controversial leader and has faced accusations of authoritarian policies by international observers. His time in power has seen Nicaragua hit with multiple U.S. sanctions, while the State Department has criticized his support of "radical regimes" in Cuba and Iran as well as repeated attempts to undermine capitalism and U.S. interests.There is also evidence that Iran has extended its influence as far north as Mexico. Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union and receives military training, weapons, and financial support from Iran, has been gaining a foothold in Latin America for much of the last decade and has more recently made inroads with drug cartels in Mexico.The Justice Department announced last month that the U.S. had extradited Adalberto Fructuoso Comparan-Rodriguez, a former mayor of Aguililla, Mexico and alleged leader of the United Cartels in Michoacán, Mexico, on drug trafficking charges. According to the allegations, Comparan-Rodriguez met in Cali, Colombia with a drug trafficker believed to be associated with Hezbollah. Comparan-Rodriguez and an associate told the trafficker they could supply hundreds of kilograms of methamphetamine, eventually agreeing to send 500 kilograms of methamphetamine from Mexico into Texas, where they were then transported to Miami.NIKKI HALEY: BIDEN'S PUSH FOR NEW IRAN DEAL WILL ‘COME BACK TO BITE’ THE US, ISRAEL IF NOT FACED WITH STRENGTHLaw enforcement agencies were able to seize the drugs before they hit the streets after Comparan-Rodriguez was arrested by Guatemalan authorities, but the case demonstrated Hezbollah's growing influence in Latin America.Hezbollah has a long documented history of operating in the tri-border area between Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, while the organization has more recently expanded their reach to Venezuela. In 2019, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo asserted that the terrorist organization now has "active cells" in Venezuela that pose a security risk to the U.S."People don’t recognize that Hezbollah has active cells – the Iranians are impacting the people of Venezuela and throughout South America," he said at the time. "We have an obligation to take down that risk for America."However, the current administration has taken a different approach to the threat of Iran, abandoning the Trump administration's policy of maximum pressure in favor of trying to rekindle the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, largely known as the Iran nuclear deal.SEN. JAMES LANKFORD SAYS BIDEN'S 'MIXED MESSAGING' ON THE MIDDLE EAST IS 'UNHELPFUL,' WARNS ABOUT RISE OF ANTI-SEMITISMPhillips said the new approach has been a mistake, arguing that the Biden administration has become complacent on Iran in an effort to salvage part of former President Obama's legacy. President Biden. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)"The Biden administration has painted itself into a corner on Iran sanctions," Phillips said. "It greatly underestimated the leverage it would need to extract another nuclear deal from Iran…it let its foot off the pedal on the maximum pressure sanction strategy that the Trump administration had adopted."The smaller amount of leverage has only served to embolden Iran, who in addition to its activities in Latin America has accelerated its efforts to obtain nuclear weapons."Iran is on the threshold of acquiring a nuclear weapon," Phillips said. "They already have enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb within weeks."CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPPhillips believes that sanctions alone are not the solution, instead arguing that the administration needs to demonstrate a credible threat of military force to deter Iran's growing ambitions."Sanctions alone aren't going to stop Iran's nuclear program any more than they stopped North Korea's," he said. "What would deter Iran is a credible threat of the effective use of force." Michael Lee is a writer at Fox News. Follow him on Twitter @UAMichaelLee | Latin America Politics |
Discover more from Striking 13
The civil service is about to take over the government
The permanent secretaries are coming.
The most boring and important thing in the world is actually doing the job. There's been a lot of extreme cuntishness in the last few years of British government - inadequate people announcing wrong-headed policies on the basis of imaginary evidence. But the core failure, the one which supersedes all others, is the failure of organisational competence.
No-one likes to talk about this in detail, apart from uber-level governance nerds - the types who man the barricades at the UCL Constitution Unit, the Institute for the Government and the Hansard Society. I love them. They take British politics seriously even when politicians don't seem able to. They give it a dignity it forgets to bestow on itself. But for most people, these issues are considered dusty and methodological, an Ikea flat-pack instruction leaflet instead of the shouty-shouty Eastenders bullshit that typically constitutes political coverage.
But whether people love it or hate it, the competence issue is at this point existential. The British economy has been part-suffocated by what the FT called an "idiot premium" after the premiership of Liz Truss. Labour will fail to get a second term if it cannot demonstrate meaningful success.
And there's something else, which is more profound. We've had seven years of right-wing populism: hatefulness, post-truth, grand promises and a complete failure to deliver. Labour has to show that rational, evidence-based, moderate politics works. To paraphrase Commissioner Gordon in a crucial philosophical conversation he had with Batman: "By the book, you hear! We have to show him! We have to show him that our way works!"
Why did Boris Johnson fail at levelling-up? Why doesn't Rishi Sunak have a hope in hell of meeting his five pledges? It's because they have no organisational competence.
It doesn't matter how many times Nick Robinson talks fawningly about Sunak having his own spreadsheets - as if that was some unimaginable level of technical ingenuity. It doesn't matter how mystically someone like Johnson can deploy their charismatic 'deft touch' with the public. If you don't establish clear delivery systems, you will fail. They didn't establish them. So they have failed.
Delivery requires a lot of things: a realistic benchmark process for achieving evidence-based targets in a given policy area which reflect broader organisational improvement, a robust communication web linking together Downing Street and the civil service, the departments and the Treasury, and finally thick insulatory walls to keep the whole thing chugging along when new events threaten to blow everything off course. In short - it's really fucking hard, it's almost completely unsung and most prime ministers are therefore dreadful at it.
Can Starmer do any better? The answer to that question tells us a lot about the kind of government we're likely to get next year.
The Labour leader is a mercurial figure. Is he the Remainer darling of 2017? The left-wing agitator of the leadership election in 2019? Or the Blairite clone of 2023? Hard to nail down. But if we ask ourselves about his organisational tendencies, the picture starts to come into focus.
Keir Starmer is a civil servant.
He ran the Crown Prosecution Service - basically equivalent to a permanent secretary running a government department. Indeed, he'd have attended the Wednesday meeting of permanent secretaries.
And it's not just him. When you take a close look at senior positions in the Labour party, you start to find civil servants everywhere.
Muneera Lula, head of domestic policy, was previously at the Department for Business. Tom Webb, director of policy and research, was at the Department of Work and Pensions. Ravinder Athwal, the lead on the manifesto, was at the Treasury. Even those hovering around the leadership are civil servants. Rachel Reeves' husband, for instance, is a senior civil servant, formerly of the Treasury and the Department for Work and Pensions, and currently second permanent secretary at the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs.
And then there's Sue Gray.
Author of the partygate report. Former second permanent secretary in the Cabinet Office. Former director-general of the Propriety and Ethics team in the Cabinet Office. Former head of the Private Offices Group. Former permanent secretary of the Department of Finance in the Northern Ireland Executive. And now chief of staff to Keir Starmer.
She joined the civil service straight from school and - apart from a sabbatical in the 1980s when she ran a pub in Northern Ireland, top marks for that by the way - she's been there ever since.
When she secured the Labour position, there was a of noise about what this meant in terms of her impartiality during the investigation into partygate. That was all nonsense. Bias isn't about what you think privately, it's about how you behave. Loads of civil servants have opinions about the policies they pursue - they are human beings. The crucial thing is that they do not let those views get in the way of their work. She hadn't.
The more pertinent question was the one hardly anyone bothered to ask: what does it say about how Starmer plans to govern?
Most chiefs of staff are political figures. Blair had Jonathan Powell. Theresa May had her thug-moron guardians in the form of Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy. Boris Johnson had a succession of figures, including bumbling dimwit Steve Barclay. Civil servants do occasionally get a look in, but the default setting is for political appointments.
Starmer has gone for Gray. That tells us a lot. It speaks to the kind of administration he plans to run.
The most interesting debate about Gray is within civil service and governance circles.
Some are impressed by the appointment. She was highly accomplished when she served in Northern Ireland. She's been at the heart of the government machine her entire working life. She's worked closely with a succession of Cabinet secretaries - the most powerful position in the civil service. She got on well and learned a lot from Gus O'Donnell and Jeremy Heywood. She did not get on well and did not learn anything from Simon Case, because he is an idiot. That fact alone speaks well of her.
Others are wary. Gray has been in the civil service a long time, but with the exception of that Northern Ireland sojourn, she's basically been doing the same job forever: buried deep in the Propriety and Ethics team in the Economic and Domestic Affairs Secretariat in the Cabinet Office. That's quite an unusual and specific role. It suggests she's good at fixing things, investigating cases and working with the civil service. But it would not have provided experience running a department. She has very little knowledge of how to implement a strategy, deliver a project, formulate a policy, or pull together a political programme.
She is therefore fundamentally unproven in the core task which she faces, which is melding together a big and competing policy agenda under a Labour government, marshalling Whitehall behind it, and keeping the Treasury on board.
Time will tell if she can live up to the task she's been given. It's a big one.
But regardless of how well she performs, one thing is now very clear: We are about to get a government of civil servants.
This is the first time this has happened. It's a new development in British politics. Critics will call it managerial or technocratic. Journalists will call it boring. But it actually stands a chance of working.
It is morally imperative that it succeeds. Years of piss-poor government have frayed public trust in politics. A succession of prime ministers have behaved like a bloke pissed on the high street on a Saturday afternoon wearing his trousers as a fucking T-shirt. A public that was already jaded is reaching the point where it believes that voting won't change anything. And that is ripe ground for populism.
It's not enough to knock down conservative populism at the election. We have to kill it stone dead, proper dagger through the heart stuff, or it can come back in a more toxic form. You only have to look at the batshit, far-right, conspiracy theory horror show rhetoric of the Tory party conference to see how that might play out.
Rational, sober, transactional politics must prove that it can deliver. Starmer's civil service government won't just carry Labour's political fortunes. It'll carry those of the liberal democratic system.
Thanks for reading Striking 13! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. | United Kingdom Politics |
Brazil's president on Sunday said he had discussed joint mediation for Russia's war in Ukraine with China and the United Arab Emirates, accusing the United States and Europe of prolonging the conflict.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who was wrapping up an official visit to China and the UAE after returning for a third term in office, said the two countries and others should join a "political G20" to try to end the war.
The veteran leftist, who has faced accusations of being overly cosy with Russian President Vladimir Putin, also remarked that the war was caused "by decisions made by two countries".
"President Putin doesn't take any initiatives to stop the war. (President Volodymyr) Zelensky from Ukraine doesn't take any initiatives to stop the war," Lula, speaking through an official translator, told reporters in Abu Dhabi.
"Europe and the US continue to give their way of contribution to continue the war. So they have to sit around the table and say, 'That's enough'."
While in China, Lula accused Washington of "encouraging" the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine.
He also lashed out at the dollar's dominance in global trade, calling for a new currency for transactions between the BRICS countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
- Biofuel deal -
The 77-year-old said he spoke to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, about forming a group of countries to mediate, styled after the G20 group of advanced economies.
"The G20 was formed to bail out the (world) economy that was in crisis," Lula said.
"Now it's important to create another kind of G20 to end this war and establish peace. This is my intent and I think that we'll manage to have great success.
"Yesterday I talked to the sheikh about the war. I talked to Xi Jinping about the war. And I think that we're meeting a set of people that prefer to talk about peace than war. And so I think we're going to have success."
Lula said he had already discussed his initiative with US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and the leaders of some South American countries.
Despite his comments about the US, the 77-year-old, who returned to power in January after serving two terms from 2003 to 2010, is also seeking closer ties with Washington.
His visit to China and the UAE, postponed by a bout of pneumonia, came after a meeting with US President Joe Biden in February.
Unlike Western powers, neither China nor Brazil has imposed sanctions against Moscow over Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The UAE has maintained a neutral stance in the conflict.
Lula, who was due to fly back to Brazil early on Sunday, said his delegation had signed deals worth $10 billion in China.
Earlier, Brazil and the UAE announced a series of deals, including an investment of up to $2.5 billion for a biodiesel project by the UAE-controlled Mataripe refinery in Brazil.
The UAE will host the COP28 UN climate talks later this year, and Brazil is a candidate to host the 2025 edition.
th/pjm | Latin America Politics |
Huge increase in NATO troops on high alert By Deborah Haynes, security and defence editorNATO will significantly increase the number of forces on high alert to well over 300,000 from 40,000 as part of the biggest overhaul of the alliance's defences since the Cold War.Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, also confirmed that allies will expand troop deployments in NATO countries that sit closest to Russia.The decisions will be set out at a landmark summit of the 30-member NATO alliance this week in Madrid, which is taking place in the shadow of Russia's war in Ukraine."We will transform the NATO response force and increase the number of our high readiness forces to well over 300,000," Mr Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday in a briefing, previewing the three-day summit.The NATO Response Force is currently around 40,000 soldiers, sailors and air personnel.Sky News revealed last week that it would be significantly increased, with two military sources saying it would be six-times the size.The name is also set to be changed to the Allied Reaction Force, Sky News understands. Gas shortages could lead to 'severe economic crisis in Europe' - German vice chancellor Gas shortages this winter could lead to a "severe economic crisis in Europe", the German vice chancellor has warned. "Over the winter, there is a threat of a scenario where reductions actually have to be imposed," Robert Habeck was quoted by CNN as saying."In my opinion, that would lead to a severe economic crisis in Europe and in Germany, and that must be avoided at all costs."We are not there yet, but in order not to get there, we need decisive, joint, solidarity-based and, above all, very rapid action."He voiced support for a US-led plan to introduce a price cap on Russian oil imports.The cap would limit how much money Russia can earn from each barrel of oil it sells on the global market.The details of how it would work and when it would be implemented still need to be worked out in the coming weeks and months.Russia has reduced its gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, with Germany hit especially badly. Evacuations from Severodonetsk limited 'towards Russia or occupied territories' - Ukraine Evacuees from Severodonetsk are only able to travel "towards Russia or occupied" territories in Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian military official cited by CNN.Oleksandr Striuk called the food and water situation there "critical" and said the healthcare system was fragile, with only a few doctors left.He said "almost all units have withdrawn and taken as much equipment as they could".He said the city of Lysychansk nearby is "being shelled with artillery non-stop and the city is being levelled to the ground".After capturing Severodonetsk over the weekend, Russian forces have been focusing on Lysychansk, the last major city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk. While we've got you... If you enjoy reading our liveblogs, Politics Hub and Q&As, do think about downloading our free app available for both iOS and Android.Click on this link: https://skynews.com/download-appAs well as keeping across the latest breaking news, you can easily watch Sky News on the go and listen to our podcasts. G7 reaffirms 'unwavering' support for Ukraine for 'as long as it takes' Amid talk of divisions among Western powers and international fatigue with regards ongoing support for Ukraine, G7 countries have reaffirmed their "unwavering commitment" to supporting Kyiv's battle with Moscow."We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian,
military and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as
long as it takes," leaders said in a statement at the summit in the
Bavarian Alps. They said they are ready to grant - or have pledged and provided - up to $29.5bn to help the country.They said they will continue to coordinate efforts to meet Ukraine's needs for military and defence equipment.G7 leaders said they are ready to reach agreements on sustained security commitments. They pledged to continue their use of sanctions for as long as necessary.Turning to Russia's announcement that it could transfer missiles with nuclear capabilities to Belarus, they expressed serious concern and urged the country to stop preventing exports of Ukrainian grain.In a tweet posted just before the statement was released, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated a similar message. Two killed in Kharkiv amid Russian shelling A 21-year-old woman and a 57-year-old woman have died following shelling in the Kharkiv region, according to governor Oleh Synyehubov.The Guardian reported that he posted on Telegram saying a Russian missile also hit a school yard overnight. Three other civilians "received explosive injuries"."Our armed forces continue to destroy the occupiers on the line of contact," he was quoted as saying."In the Kharkiv direction, the invaders attacked in the direction of Dementiivka and Pitomnyk, suffered losses and retreated. "In the area of Izium, the enemy does not stop trying to advance. "Our defenders are resisting, destroying the occupiers’ manpower and armoured vehicles." Russia 'does not accept' that it defaulted on debt Russia does not accept that it has defaulted on its external debt for the first time in more than a century, the Kremlin has said. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov
said Russia made bond payments due in May but they were blocked by Belgium-based bank Euroclear because of Western sanctions, which he said is "not our problem".Earlier Russia missed a deadline to pay investors of its international bonds, which would place it in default for the first time since the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. According to the Reuters news agency, some Taiwanese holders of Russian Eurobonds had not received interest due when a grace period expired on Sunday.A default was seen as inevitable when the US Treasury decided not to renew an exemption to sanctions rules that had allowed Russia to make payments to foreign bondholders.Read more... Ukrainian residents 'held captive, beaten and electrocuted' in Enerhodar Hundreds of residents are being held captive in Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, the city's Ukrainian mayor has claimed.Dmytro Orlov alleged in a Telegram post on Sunday: "A significant portion of them are skilled workers of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.""People are electrocuted, beaten, and held for weeks and sometimes months," he added."They [are made] to confess to 'illegal activities', in particular participation in the city's self-defence, concealment of weapons, and to name the names of their 'accomplices'."Russian forces took over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant near Enerhodar in early March."Over the past two weeks, the situation in occupied Enerhodar has only worsened," he said. Zelenskyy told G7 he wants war to end this year We've had a few extra details of what Volodymyr Zelenskyy told G7 leaders (see 9.55 post).Two EU diplomats said he told world leaders he wanted to end the war by the conclusion of this year, before winter sets in. Civilians told to leave Ukrainian city of Lysychansk Ukrainian civilians have been urged to evacuate the eastern city of Lysychansk, which is under Russian attack. "Dear residents of Lysychansk city territorial community and
their relatives! Due to the real threat to life and health, we
call on you to evacuate urgently," Serhiy Gaidai, the governor
of the Luhansk region, wrote on the Telegram messaging app. "The situation in the city is very difficult," he added.He said earlier on Monday that the city was suffering "catastrophic" damage from shelling. Russian forces have been targeting the city after capturing nearby Severodonetsk over the weekend. About 100,000 people lived in Lysychansk before the invasion but last week the BBC reported there were only 7,000 to 8,000 left in the city. Lysychansk is the last major Luhansk city still held by Ukrainian troops.Russia's advances in Luhansk, part of the Donbas, have led military experts to conclude that the military momentum is now with Russia - see 8.51am post. | Europe Politics |
Johannesburg – News agency Bloomberg says that the BRICS group of nations has started to debate the inclusion of two new nations, Iran and Saudi Arabia, into their global bloc.
The group, according to the report, plans to decide this year whether to admit new members and what criteria they would have to meet.
Bloomberg added that the group would benefit Beijing as the world’s second-biggest economy tries to build diplomatic clout to counter the dominance of developed nations in the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other institutions.
CEO of Brand South Africa, Sithembile Ntombela, says that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are a bloc of influential emerging market economies that are collaborating to restructure the global economic multilateral order to make it fairer, more inclusive, and more equitable.
She said that these nations account for about 42% of the world’s population and 24% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP); however, they collectively hold less than 15% of voting rights in both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Ntombela said an expanded BRICS will be beneficial to South Africa as it will allow our country to extend its global influence and strengthen trade ties with a wide range of powerful emerging market economies.
"As BRICS chairman from 2023, President Ramaphosa will also oversee the expansion of the bloc, which may welcome new members. Soon after President Xi Jinping announced it during the 14th BRICS summit that was held virtually in late June this year, Iran and Argentina announced that they had submitted their applications to join the group," she says.
She added that the announcements were followed by media reports that Indonesia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Senegal, and Thailand were also interested in joining the BRICS.
"Although there are no criteria that has been set to determine how will the new BRICS members will be selected, any of the potential members will add weight to the bloc, which already consists of resource-rich nations and highly industrialised economies," added Ntombela.
The Acting CEO said that South Africa is considered a door or entry point to Africa by many multinationals looking to do business on the continent, and it also played a significant role in the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has created a market of 1.4 billion people with a continent-wide GDP of $2.6 trillion.
"The AfCFTA, which was officially launched in January last year, has removed import tariffs and will progressively promote regional integration, develop new regional value chains, and stimulate industrial and infrastructure development across Africa.
At the 14th BRICS Summit in late June, the bloc’s member countries released a 75-point joint statement, known as the Beijing Declaration, which, among other things, expressed support for AfCFTA. In the declaration, BRICS also committed to assisting Africa to accelerate industrialisation and infrastructure development, which are pre-conditions for driving trade and investment on the continent," she said.
Ntombela says that given that South Africa is the most industrialised economy in Africa with an advanced logistics infrastructure and a sophisticated financial system, the country is in an advantageous position to capitalise on the trade and investment benefits presented by the AfCFTA and an expanded BRICS, particularly in key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, e-commerce, and the services industry, in which it has a competitive edge.
The Star | Global Organizations |
The Conservatives risk being seen once again as the “nasty party” by trying to win votes with a divisive attack on human rights, senior party figures have warned.
Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure from his party this weekend over his pledge to stop the boats crossing the Channel. It follows another week that ended in Channel deaths after the capsizing of a boat, while the total number of people making the dangerous crossing since 2018 rose above the 100,000 mark.
Cabinet ministers are now said to be among those expecting the party to back quitting the European convention on human rights (ECHR) as part of its next election manifesto, should their plan to deport migrants to Rwanda be blocked in court.
Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, said the government would do “whatever is necessary” to force its plans through.
However, the increasingly hostile rhetoric from the right has led to growing alarm on the party’s moderate wing. Its MPs warn that any threat to leave the ECHR will put off more voters in the “blue wall” seats in the south-east, where support is already under threat.
David Lidington, the former justice secretary and de facto deputy prime minister under Theresa May, said the talk risked damaging Britain’s global standing, aiding its international enemies and causing electoral damage.
“In raw political terms, I think they are ignoring the risk that a lot of people who traditionally have voted Conservative would find such a move very offensive,” he said. “They will want to see a Conservative party that sticks by treaties and which is seen as on the side of human rights at a time when human rights are under attack from our genuine ideological foes around the world.
“There will be a subsection of the electorate who will like this and want a hard line, however rational or irrational that policy is. But I think that they will be at least matched and probably exceeded by the number of people in seats, particularly suburban seats and home counties seats, who will be at best unimpressed and at worse seriously repelled by this kind of rhetoric and such a policy …
“The risk of us being tarnished then as the nasty party again, I think, becomes very real.”
Alistair Burt, the former Tory foreign minister, said: “It’s difficult to see where the advantage lies, apart from those who believe that the more often you say something, and the more disagreeable you are to others, that somehow the more successful you appear to be. I’m not sure that argument holds political water.
“There have been so many good Conservative voices, including that of the prime minister and the foreign secretary, saying that this is not something they support. I think that’s the right answer and I think that they’ve looked at the risk to the brand in that way.
“I think it’s a real one. It would be quite firmly attacked by opponents and by a very wide spread of society. Then it would be mercilessly attacked on whether it would actually be effective.”
Tory supporters of staying inside the ECHR are taking comfort from the fact that just three months ago, Sunak endorsed the convention at a meeting of European leaders. There are also legal implications for the Good Friday agreement and the the Brexit deal with the EU.
While No 10 sources said they believed their migration plans could be achieved inside the ECHR, the prime minister is expected to come under renewed pressure to back leaving the European court of human rights when MPs return to the Commons next month.
John Howell, the Tory MP nominated as the UK’s candidate to become the Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner, said there had “never been a more important time to have a good grouping of human rights”.
“It is a completely different thing if you’re part of the convention and then you pull out,” he said. “That sends a very bad signal to the rest of the world and it makes it very, very easy for people to compare us with [Vladimir] Putin and [Belarus’s president, Alexander] Lukashenko. In my conversations with Conservative MPs, I do not think that in this parliament, there would be a majority for that.”
The news comes with other senior moderate Tories signalling they will battle to stop the party veering further to the right on culture war issues, or using green policies as a dividing line with Labour.
In an interview with theObserver, Andy Street, the West Midlands mayor and the most senior Tory outside London, said he and others needed to show their brand of Conservatism would be electorally successful.
“It’s my job as a moderate Conservative, who believes in inclusivity, believes in the whole notion of everyone in society succeeding together, and particularly believes in the green agenda - it’s my responsibility to stand up and demonstrate that our way of doing it can win through for the party,” he said. “I am convinced by the ballot results in the West Midlands that there is a real sweet spot of being pro-growth, pro-net zero.
“There are lots of people in parliament who share my [view]. The lobby should not convince itself that our wing of the party is necessarily quiet. It’s actually very influential on this government.”
A No 10 source said: “We’ve always said that there’s no overnight fix to this [small boat crossings] challenge. Our new stop the boats bill will play an important part in our effort to break the cycle, end exploitation by gangs and prevent further loss of life.
“We’re making progress but we’re not complacent. That’s why it’s so important that we change the law to make sure people know if they come here illegally they will be swiftly detained and removed.” | United Kingdom Politics |
India, China Soften Tone In Border Talks Ahead Of BRICS, G-20
Indian and Chinese army commanders agreed to work swiftly toward easing a border dispute, setting the stage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping to potentially meet at key summits in the coming weeks.
(Bloomberg) -- Indian and Chinese army commanders agreed to work swiftly toward easing a border dispute, setting the stage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping to potentially meet at key summits in the coming weeks.
The nuclear-armed Asian neighbors, who share a 3,488 Km (2,167 miles)-long disputed border, are locked in their worst territory dispute in four decades due to a deadly clash in 2020. Several rounds of talks between the two sides have made little progress to draw back the thousands of soldiers, missiles and fighter jets positioned near the Himalayan border.
The latest round of military talks came days before Modi and Xi meet in person at the heads of state meeting for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and the Group of Twenty leaders’ meeting in September that New Delhi is hosting. A joint statement was issued, which has happened just eight times out of the 19 rounds of discussions.
Both sides agreed to resolve the remaining issues along the Line of Actual Control in the Western Sector, in an expeditious manner and maintain peace in the border in the mean time, according to the statement issued after the Aug. 13-14 meeting. While this doesn’t spell out a breakthrough, the shift in language signals more openness to negotiate.
India and China commanders had a “positive, constructive and in-depth discussion” on the resolution of the remaining issues along the Line of Actual control, which refers to disputed border, the statement said.
A US lobby group with business interests in India said New Delhi has to balance its relationship with China as a simmering border stand-off is distracting Modi’s administration from making investments in infrastructure to education.
Last month, India’s government acknowledged Modi and Xi discussed bilateral ties at a G-20 summit last year, their first official contact since border clash. The comments went beyond New Delhi’s earlier statement that the leaders exchanged pleasantries.
The admission came after a Chinese readout of a discussion between India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his Chinese counterpart during a BRICS conference in Johannesburg last month. The statement from Beijing appears to be in reaction to Doval’s comments made during meeting the border dispute had “eroded strategic trust” between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | Asia Politics |
How do you solve a problem like Suella? Nearly 48 hours after the Home Secretary accused the police of “playing favourites” with pro-Palestinian protesters, Rishi Sunak still has no answer to that question.
On the face of it, this is an open-and-shut case of Cabinet insubordination. Suella Braverman’s incendiary newspaper article, in which she repeated the phrase “hate marches” and lobbed in a comparison to Northern Ireland too, was published without No 10’s full approval.
It’s also not a first offence. Only last week, Braverman’s claim that homelessness was a “lifestyle choice” was another unauthorised outburst, and many in No 10 were unaware of her plans to ban charities from handing out tents to rough sleepers.
Prior to that, she had gone off-piste to tell a US think-tank that the 1951 Refugee Convention was not “fit for our modern age” – and said fear of discrimination for being gay or a woman should not be enough to qualify for refugee protection.
Last year, under Liz Truss’s leadership, Braverman suggested she wanted the restoration of David Cameron’s failed target of reducing net migration to less than 100,000 a year.
Yet despite all that, Downing Street shows no sign of wanting to make a swift decision about sacking her. “We’re looking into what happened … it’s an ongoing internal process,” was all a No 10 spokeswoman would say about the unauthorised article.
Given that it would take literally a matter of minutes to conclude whether and how Braverman defied her boss, it’s obvious that Sunak is instead playing a waiting game.
If Saturday’s march passes off without any “hate” offences or any intimidation of the Armistice Day event at the Cenotaph, he may have a freer hand to show strong support to the police, by sacking the woman who challenged their judgement. If the far-right turn up, he may similarly have grounds for saying she incited them.
Yet perhaps the real reason Sunak has not fired Braverman is because he agrees with much of her world view, even though he would express himself more cautiously. Don’t forget he summoned Met Police chief Sir Mark Rowley to seek “assurances” the march would not affect the Cenotaph event.
It’s become a commonplace among some Tories to say that Braverman’s most egregious error has been the intemperate tone of her remarks, and that if only her criticisms could be made either privately or more reasonably everything would be fine.
Yet ultimately what’s most offensive to some voters is not the language but the policies themselves. It doesn’t matter if it’s a dog whistle or a foghorn if the signal is the same.
While more refined ministers may not want to say migrants “should f**k off back to France” (as Lee Anderson did) or they should be sent to Rwanda, the effect of policy is still the same. Sunak didn’t accuse Rowley of “woke” policing, but his summons sent the same message.
Similarly, Sunak worked very closely with Braverman on the Illegal Migration Act, which goes further than ever before in denying basic rights of asylum in the UK – but which relies on the legality of Boris Johnson’s plan to deport migrants to Rwanda.
That’s why Sunak’s waiting game on Braverman’s future may extend until at least 10am on Wednesday, when the Supreme Court is due to deliver its ruling. If it decides in the Government’s favour, it may not have any deterrent effect on small boats, but it would allow the Home Secretary to say she and the PM have been vindicated and need more time for the policy to work.
Whatever happens on Wednesday (and remember these are British courts, not European ones), several Tory MPs are outraged that the judges will be deciding whether UK policy complies with Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which prohibits torture and inhuman treatment. For them, the ECHR is the problem and withdrawal is the solution.
But just as Sunak is more right wing than his polite image suggests, the Tory party’s drift towards hardline stances started under David Cameron, the man who likes to project himself as a moderniser. It was under Cameron that the Conservatives pulled out of the mainstream of European centre-right parties.
And it was Cameron who in 2006 vowed to scrap Labour’s Human Rights Act, which enshrined the ECHR into UK law. Theresa May, seen as another “moderate” by some these days, has long advocated withdrawal from the ECHR, despite being ridiculed by Ken Clarke for her dubious claim that a man avoided deportation because he owned a cat.
When it appeared earlier this year that Sunak himself is ready to demand withdrawal from the ECHR, Tory backbencher Jackie Doyle-Price expressed her irritation in a WhatsApp group. “Willy waving about leaving the ECHR will do zilch … Upholding the law should never be a matter for debate for a Conservative”.
But the fact is that the Doyle-Price view seems to be a minority and, as much as the “One Nation” group of Tory MPs dislike Braverman, they lack the clout to do anything. Johnson himself campaigned in 2019 for a “moderate and compassionate, One Nation government,” yet the reality was divisively different.
Sunak, Oliver Dowden and Robert Jenrick were the three “moderate” Tories to back Johnson in his leadership campaign, boasting “One Nation values” on the environment and creating an “outward-looking, tolerant nation”.
Since then, Sunak has dumped on net zero, Dowden has made a “war on woke” his catchphrase, and Jenrick has resorted to claiming Labour would fill its new towns with illegal migrants.
In fact, the story of the Tory party over the past 15 years has been the story of its Ukip-isation, with Nigel Farage prompting its shift to a referendum, then to Brexit itself. His recent hero’s welcome at the Conservative conference, plus a new poll by Conservative Home showing 70 per cent of activists would like him to be readmitted as a Tory, show how far his influence still spreads.
It’s not impossible to imagine the next Tory leader of the Opposition agreeing to admit Farage to its ranks. And it’s Farage who has led the charge on the Armistice Day march (being the first to spot and supercharge the issue on his GB News show).
Farage often gets the Tory party dancing to his tune but always shows he’s the better dancer. On Brexit, on small boats, and now on policing of marches, he can say he drives the issue but the Tories never implement the solution needed. The wider casualties are traditional Tory beliefs in an independent judiciary, police and Civil Service.
Of course, Farage’s populism has never actually been tested by the real world of government. It thrives and survives in opposition, which is why it may be the route the Conservatives pursue even further once freed of the hard choices of being in office.
So the Tories’ long drift to the right shows no sign of stopping. But with growth flatlining, debt failing to fall, inflation proving sticky, boats not stopping and waiting lists rising – and crime and housing not even among Sunak’s five priorities – it’s the country that’s drifting. Whatever happens to Braverman, that’s the problem the PM has to fix most urgently. | United Kingdom Politics |
BRICS Bank Aims To Increase Local-Currency Borrowing To 30%
New Development Bank, the multilateral lender founded by the BRICS group of emerging-market countries, aims to increase the share of funding it raises in local currencies to 30% from less than 20%, according to its chief financial officer.
(Bloomberg) -- New Development Bank, the multilateral lender founded by the BRICS group of emerging-market countries, aims to increase the share of funding it raises in local currencies to 30% from less than 20%, according to its chief financial officer.
“We will increase the use of local currencies,” CFO Leslie Maasdorp told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the BRICS meetings in Johannesburg on Wednesday. “It does not mean we are de-dollarizing or moving away from the dollar. It just means that we are raising more local-currency financing.”
NDB expects to become a regular issuer in South Africa after its inaugural sale of 1.5 billion rand ($79 million) in bonds this week, he said. The Shanghai-based lender registered a program to sell up to 10 billion rand in debt on the Johannesburg exchange in 2019.
Read more: BRICS Bank Raises $79 Million in S. Africa Bond Sale
NDB also plans to issue bonds in Indian rupees this year for the first time and is in talks with regulators to register a $2.5 billion program over five years, Maasdorp said.
But the majority of the bank’s funding — about 70% — will continue to be denominated in dollars, he said.
“The bank’s capital is in US dollars. Our reporting currency is US dollars. So the dollar is hot-coded in the DNA of the bank,” he said.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | Global Organizations |
The European Union will be Labour’s “number-one priority” when it comes to foreign affairs, David Lammy has said.
The shadow Foreign Secretary said his party would hold formal meetings with the bloc every four months at the least if elected into government and promised a “shift” in the UK-EU relationship.
EU ambassadors have described dealing with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer as “like honey on toast” in comparison to fractious relations with Conservative politicians, he said.
Speaking on the latest episode of the i‘s podcast, Labour’s Plan for Power, Mr Lammy also suggested the Tories may have to shift their position on the EU if polling – suggesting the public regrets the Brexit vote – is correct.
But he argued that he could not contemplate a political consensus to rejoin the EU in the current political cycle – insisting his focus as foreign secretary would be to work in the national interests of both Leave and Remain voters.
“The European Union is our number-one priority. It’s our number one priority because it’s our backyard,” Mr Lammy said.
“It’s our number-one priority because there is war in Europe and because I believe our future prosperity and security is predicated on good relationships with our European partners.”
He said there would be “a tonal shift under a change of government with our neighbours in Europe” if Labour were to win the next election, with a move to return to more regular talks.
“I think we do need to get back to structured dialogue,” he explained. “I think listeners will find it extraordinary that the UK government does not sit down with the European Union in a structured way every four months or every six months and discuss the issues that matter to both parties. We need to get back to that.”
Mr Lammy, MP for Tottenham, said Labour does not have “the divisions on Europe that the Conservative Party have” and argued that that had been recognised by EU officials.
“I did a meeting with Keir Starmer and European ambassadors and they described the tonal difference as being like honey on toast,” he said.
“[Sir Keir] has built a very good relationship with [Olaf] Scholz in Germany [the German Chancellor],” he said, adding that the “chemistry” between Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron was also “very strong”.
Labour has set out plans to form a new security pact with the EU to work closely on threats of organised crime or energy security, for example.
Mr Lammy said the conflict in Ukraine underlined the need for a defence security pact and said this would “be cast as wide as possible” to include “security issues in relation to migration”.
“[Boris Johnson] rejected a defence-security pact with the European Union and we said that we think a security pact is fundamental,” Mr Lammy said. “I think war in Europe demonstrates that.
“There are important processes that the European Union goes through in relation to terrorism and other things that we pulled out of so there’s a security pact that I think is really important.”
Asked if he has seen the polling that points to “Bregret” – regret over leaving the EU among some Brexit voters, Mr Lammy said it could force the Conservatives to change their attitude towards the EU.
A recent report by UK in a Changing Europe found 16 per cent of 2016 Leavers now say they would vote Remain, compared to 6 per cent of Remainers who say they would vote Leave.
“I’ve seen the polling and the changing mood, but… at the moment the Conservative Party have still set their face against the European Union broadly,” said Mr Lammy. “They’re a pragmatic party that historically over their many hundreds of years, have changed their mind on things.
“They haven’t changed their mind on this. If that polling is right, then they might do, but they haven’t at the moment.”
Pressed on whether there would have to be a cross-party consensus before the UK could think of rejoining the EU, Mr Lammy said: “My sense is that Europe would demand one, Britain would have to demonstrate that. So I don’t see that over the next political cycle.”
The resignation of former PM David Cameron following the Brexit referendum result, described by Mr Lammy as “scuttling off”, was “not his finest hour,” he said.
He suggested Lord Cameron, now Foreign Secretary, was guilty of believing his own spin.
“I think there are a lot of people who feel very strongly that scuttling off after that decision was not his finest hour,” he said. “I’ve always been of the view that Etonians make wonderful actors. I’m watching the Crown at the moment. Dominic West, who plays Charles, plays him very well.
“But I’m not sure they make great politicians. They slightly believe too much in their own alchemy and I think David Cameron’s guilty of that.”
Lord Cameron has always argued that the decision to call the Brexit referendum in 2016, after his party won a shock majority in 2015, was an inevitability.
Pressed on whether this was true, Mr Lammy said it was time “to come back together and heal” not look to the past.
He added: “I don’t want to go back. I want to look forward. As I say, it was a bitter time. The country found itself really torn apart.
“We need now to come back together. And to heal. And I genuinely believe that Keir Starmer represents that, coming together, turning the chapter, turning the page, and moving on in a united posture.
“Sadly after the decision to leave the European Union Boris Johnson could have begun his period as prime minister by bringing the country back together. He decided instead to prosecute or behave in office solely for one side of that debate.
“It is important for me, if I have the privilege of being Foreign Secretary, to try and pursue the job in Britain’s national interests and that is in the national interests of everybody in the country – however they voted seven eight years ago.”
“Labour’s Plan For Power: Starmer’s Brexit Dilemma” is the fourth episode of a special new i podcast series looking at what Sir Keir Starmer’s party would do differently if it wins the next election. Hosted by Paul Waugh, i‘s chief political commentator, this is a four-part series that also covers the economy, the NHS and the north-south divide.
Hosted by Paul Waugh, i‘s chief political commentator, this fascinating four-part series will also dive into Labour’s plans for the NHS, Brexit and the economy. | United Kingdom Politics |
On stretches of Route 90, the Israeli-built road running down the length of the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank, the west side of the highway is full of straw-like grass despite the summer heat. To the east of the road, what can be eaten by sheep and goats is gone.The difference is the only perceptible sign of the biggest strategic shift in the battle for control of Area C, the 60% of the West Bank under full Israeli control, in recent years: the emergence of Israeli settlers using shepherding as a tool for seizing the most land, with the least effort.“We used to be able to take the sheep and goats all over the mountains and the valley,” said Mohammed, a 16-year-old herding a flock of 200 on the side of the road that is safe for Palestinians. “Now the road is the border and beyond that is forbidden.”Map – area C of the West Bank“They come down from the mountain and take the water, take the land, but bring goats,” said Abu Fadi, 52, a Bedouin shepherd from Al-Auja, a village north of Jericho. “There’s not enough space any more and the price of food for the animals is going up. We are being pressured on both sides.”About 450,000 Israelis have settled in what is now Area C of the West Bank since the occupation of the Palestinian territories began in 1967, some motivated by religious or nationalistic reasons, and others by the cheaper cost of living. Their presence is viewed by most of the international community as a major obstacle to lasting peace.What was once seen as a pioneer lifestyle is now often very comfortable: some early settlements are now well established and wealthy, with security guards at the entrance and fences topped with cameras and barbed wire. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are on hand to enforce military law for Palestinians, and civilian law for settlers.A shelter on the Haroe Haiviri settler farm. Photograph: Quique Kierszenbaum/The GuardianAccording to Dror Etkes, a leading expert on Israeli land policy over the Green Line and founder of the NGO Kerem Navot, during the last 10 years, the rightwing of the settler movement has been trying out something different, with great success.A new Kerem Navot investigation has found that there are now 77 Israeli farms and shepherding outposts across the West Bank; 66 were established over the last decade, and 46 in the last five years, part of an explosion in settlement growth during the Trump administration. The area now controlled by shepherd settlers is around 60,000 acres – just under 7% of Area C.As Ze’ev Hever, the secretary general of Amana, a settler organisation, put it at an online conference last year: “Construction takes up little ground, due to economic considerations of building development … The shepherd farms – over the last three years we have ventured into a large expanse – now cover an area almost twice as large as the built area of the settlements.”Etkes spent three years interviewing Palestinian herders, observing changes over time in the grazing areas visited by Palestinians and settlers, and using aerial photographs to map out geographical features such as deep valleys and roads, which now often form the de facto boundaries of land appropriated by settler shepherds.He also found that the settler herders are often helped with grants and allocations of pastureland issued directly by Israeli government offices and other publicly funded bodies.“This is the most important change in the West Bank in decades. The settler enterprise used to be about building communities, and now often someone comes alone to start a farm, and maybe later brings his family, living like he’s in the Wild West,” Etkes said during the Guardian’s visit to several Palestinian and settler communities in the Jordan Valley last week.A block of cement with the inscription ‘Dangerous, firing zone’ near the Malachei Hashalom farm in the West Bank. Photograph: Quique Kierszenbaum/The Guardian“They are initially very violent in pushing the Palestinians out, but once they’ve established dominance, they are usually less violent. They feel entitled to the land, like they don’t need numbers or the army to keep them safe.”Violence related to control of land in the West Bank is on the rise, with 450 attacks by settlers against Palestinians, and 160 attacks by Palestinians against settlers, recorded by the UN in 2021.The Bedouin hamlet of Ras al-Tin in the Jordan Valley is still reeling from a particularly vicious incident last week: around 20 shepherd settlers living on a nearby hilltop arrived in the village by car on Monday evening, accompanied by 10 IDF personnel.According to other residents, the settlers entered a home and proceeded to beat the four members of a family with batons spiked with nails, while the IDF watched. Mustafa Ka’abanh and his sons Ahmad and Muhammad, in their 20s, were beaten while handcuffed, and the young men arrested.A young Palestinian shepherd tries to keep his goats off the road. Photograph: Quique Kierszenbaum/The Guardian50-year-old Hager, their mother, was so badly beaten, she was unconscious in hospital in Ramallah for several days. Mustafa was detained for four days after his release from hospital, and their two sons remain in custody at Ofer military prison.The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the attack.“I heard the settlers came because they were angry about an incident involving a cow and this was revenge, but we had nothing to do with it,” said a close relative of the family, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals.The attack marked the first time that nearby settlers who arrived in the last two years have entered Ras al-Tin itself. People living there are now deeply worried that the violence could escalate and that, like many others, they could be forced to leave their homes.“There is no worse oppression in the world than not being safe in your own house,” the relative said. “It’s not about who can graze animals and where, not really. They want to get rid of us completely.” | Middle East Politics |
Boris Johnson has claimed that questions over his premiership have been “settled” and speculation over his future is driving the British people “nuts” as pressure piles on his leadership after the Tories’ double byelection defeat.The prime minister also warned Tory MPs considering further moves to unseat him to focus instead on the needs of the UK who are irritated by rows centred on Westminster.His comments came amid claims of new attempts from backbench MPs seeking to unseat him after losing the two byelections in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton and the resignation of his party co-chair Oliver Dowden.Johnson, asked by reporters if questions over his leadership were settled, said: “Yes.” He then added: “What’s driving people nuts is this endless churn of stuff about things that I’m meant to have stuffed up or whatever about my colleagues, their view of me, my character, the leadership, Tory blah blah.”Reports have claimed some MPs are seeking to change 1922 Committee rules so they can hold another vote of confidence.MPs who want to remove the prime minister are seeking election to the 18 most senior posts on the 1922 Committee, which dictates how to conduct confidence votes in Tory party leaders, the Telegraph claimed.Asked how he would respond if “the men in grey suits” ask him to step aside, he said: “I love my colleagues and I will always. I would urge them respectfully to – golden rule of politics, Johnson’s rule number one – focus. The more we are talking about Westminster politics, the more irritating it is to the voters.”At present, Johnson is protected from another leadership vote for a year, after winning a poll this month – despite 41% of Tory MPs voting for his removal.Dowden’s resignation has led to concerns others could follow this weekend.As the scale of the defeats in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton sank in – both with worse than expected swings against the Conservatives – a string of senior Tories added their voices to those calling for Johnson to go.Johnson said the lesson he has taken from the byelection defeats was not to be distracted by the “endless churn” of news claiming he had “stuffed up”.“I think that the lesson I take from the byelections in Tiverton and in Wakefield is very simple, I think that actually people were fed up of hearing about things I had stuffed up or allegedly stuffed up or whatever – this endless, completely legitimate, but endless churn of news about one particular type of news about one type of thing. And they wanted me to be getting on with the job,” he said.Earlier, Johnson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that his role was to look at exactly what happened and “think which criticisms really matter”.Sign up to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday morning at 7am BSTWhen it was put to him that Dowden had resigned saying business could not continue as usual, Johnson said: “If you’re saying you want me to undergo some sort of psychological transformation, I think that our listeners would know that is not going to happen. What you can do, and what the government should do, and what I want to do, is to get on with changing and reforming and improving our systems and our economy.”The prime minister is not due to return to the UK until Thursday evening, after attending a G7 summit in Germany and a Nato meeting in Spain.Johnson declined to comment on reports that he planned to build a £150,000 treehouse in the grounds of Chequers but was forced to abandon the idea after the police raised security concerns.It was claimed by the Times that the prime minister and his wife, Carrie, wanted to build the treehouse at the country retreat in autumn 2020 for their son Wilf.There were discussions about having David Brownlow, a Tory donor, fund the project and plans for the treehouse were drawn up, it was claimed, but the project was dropped after the prime minister’s close protection officers warned of a security risk because the treehouse would be visible from the road.The report said the design included bulletproof glass, which increased the cost of the project significantly. The couple decided against pursuing the plans after the advice of the police, it was claimed.Asked on Saturday if a penny of taxpayers’ or donors’ money was spent on the plan, Johnson said: “I’m not going to comment on nonexistent objects or nonexistent jobs to do with my family.” He did not deny that plans had been drawn up. | United Kingdom Politics |
A screen shows a CCTV state media news broadcast of Chinese President Xi Jinping, addressing the BRICS Business Forum via video link, at a shopping center in Beijing, China, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas PeterRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryXi calls for BRICS to rise upXi says Cold War mentality must endPutin chides West for exporting crisisBRICS leaders hold online meetingLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday criticised "the abuse" of international sanctions, while Russian President Vladimir Putin scolded the West for fomenting global crisis, with both leaders calling for greater BRICS cooperation.Xi called on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) to take up the responsibility conferred by their economic clout, and said they should stand up for a truly multinational international system based on the United Nations."We must abandon Cold War mentality and block confrontation and oppose unilateral sanctions - and the abuse of sanctions," Xi told the BRICS summit through a translator.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"Our meeting today comes at a crucial moment of choice for the future of humanity: as key emerging markets and developing countries, BRICS countries must rise to our responsibility," Xi said.China has by far the largest economy in the BRICS grouping, accounting for more than 70% of the group's collective $27.5 trillion economic might.Putin called for stronger BRICS cooperation and took a swipe at the West which he accused of fomenting a crisis."Only on the basis of honest and mutually beneficial cooperation can we look for ways out of the crisis situation that has developed in the global economy due to the ill-considered and selfish actions of individual states," Putin said.He accused the West of "using financial mechanisms" to "shunt their own mistakes in macroeconomic policy on to the whole world."Putin has said relations with China are the best they have ever been and touts a strategic partnership with China aimed at countering U.S. influence.U.S. President Joe Biden has said the West is locked in a battle with autocratic governments such as China and Russia.The United States and European powers blame Putin's decision to invade Ukraine as the reason relations with the West have sunk to the lowest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis - including the severest sanctions in modern history.But Putin says the West wants to destroy Russia, that the economic sanctions are akin to a declaration of economic war and that Russia will build ties with other powers such as China and India. read more Putin, who casts the Ukraine war as a "special military operation", blames the United States for humiliating Russia in the aftermath of the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union and threatening Moscow by enlarging the NATO military alliance.Russia sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 to degrade its southern neighbour's military capabilities, root out people it called dangerous nationalists and defend the Russian-speakers of two eastern Ukrainian regions.Ukraine says Russia has launched an imperial-style land grab and will never surrender its territory to Russia.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Jane MerrimanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Global Organizations |
Printed Chinese and Australian flags are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSYDNEY, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's ambassador to Australia said that more needed to be done to reset relations between Canberra and Beijing and that the two nations were not at the stage of solving political and trade disputes.Speaking to the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday, China's ambassador, Xiao Qian, also said there had been no meeting between leaders from the two trading partners in recent years because Beijing believed a face-to-face meeting could worsen strained ties."It's because we did not believe the meeting would help to improve the relationship and we were concerned the meeting could perhaps make things even more deteriorated," he said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comChina is Australia's largest trading partner and the biggest customer for its iron ore.Beijing imposed trade sanctions on Australian products ranging from coal to seafood and wine in response to policies and decisions such as Australia's call for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and its 5G network ban on Huawei.Australia and China's foreign ministers met for the first time in three years last month on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Bali, after the election of a Labor government. read more Despite some contact between ministers, "we have not yet come to the stage to discuss about how to solve those specific issues, political issues, trade issues", Xiao said on Wednesday.He said it was "a good start only and there is a lot to be done to really reset this relationship".Coal stocks had jumped last month on rumours China would lift an unofficial ban on Australian coal in place since 2020.The Chinese embassy on Saturday criticised a joint statement from Australia, Japan and United States that expressed concern on Friday over China's military exercises in the Taiwan strait. read more Australia has called for de-escalation in the Taiwan Strait.Xiao said Australia should be cautious on the issue and not misinterpet the "One China" policy."On the question of Taiwan, there is no room for compromise," he said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Kirsty Needham. Editing by Gerry DoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Australia Politics |
By Helen Regan, Andrew Raine, Sana Noor Haq, Hafsa Khalil and Aditi Sangal, CNNUpdated 10:39 a.m. ET, June 27, 20222 min agoMore than 1,000 people were in the central Ukrainian shopping mall that was targeted by an airstrikeFrom CNN's Seb ShuklaPresident Zelensky has posted on social media to say that over a thousand people were inside a mall in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk when a Russian missile was fired at the building. "The number of victims is impossible to imagine," he added.On telegram, alongside a video, Zelensky said the site had “no danger to the Russian army. No strategic value. Only the attempt of people to live a normal life.”The mall remained on fire and emergency services were on the scene, he said.53 min agoMariupol residents "forced to hunt pigeons" to eat, mayor saysFrom CNN's Yulia KesaviaWide scale destruction in the aftermath of the Russian invasion in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on May 12. (Pavel Klimov/Reuters)Residents in the occupied city of Mariupol are being “forced to hunt pigeons” in order to feed themselves, Vadym Boichenko, the exiled mayor of Mariupol, said in a statement on Monday. Boichenko said residents are “using improvised traps” to catch the pigeons and that Russian forces are making “a mockery of people who used to live their life to the fullest before the war — not knowing what hunger or lack of drinking water was." "These terrible things are happening in the 21st century, in the heart of Europe, in front of the whole world," he added.Boichenko's statement ended with some advice about the dangers of people eating pigeons from Oleksandr Lazarenko, head of Primary Health Care Center No. 3 in Mariupol who said, “Pigeons are a breeding ground for many viral, bacterial and fungal diseases. In this regard, the meat can be infected. It can cause histoplasmosis, encephalitis, ornithosis, salmonellosis, toxoplasmosis and other dangerous diseases. Such diseases are especially dangerous for children and the elderly. In the absence of proper medical care, it can even lead to death.”1 hr 28 min agoFrance says countries invited to G7 need to pick sides over war in UkraineFrom CNN’s Xiaofei Xu in ParisG7-leaders and participants of the outreach program pose for a family photo on June 27, at Elmau Castle, Germany (John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images)Some countries invited to participate in the G7 summit in Germany “will have to choose sides” as the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, an Élysée source told journalists on Monday.“It is the stability of the international order that is at stake,” the Élysée source said.Germany, host country of the G7 summit, has invited Argentina, India, Indonesia, Senegal and South Africa to join the summit. Some of the invitees, such as India, have yet to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.Sessions on Monday afternoon are open to invited countries.French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to meet with the presidents of Indonesia and South Africa separately this afternoon. 1 hr 29 min ago"Chaotic" Ukrainian retreat underway in Lysychansk, Russian defense ministry claims From CNN's Tim ListerUkrainian soldiers ride an armoured vehicle on the main road to Lysychansk in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 26. (Bagus Saragih/AFP/Getty Images)The Ukrainian military command is "trying to stop the chaotic escape of Ukrainian servicemen near Lysychansk amid the success of Russian army," the Russian Defense Ministry said.Russian and allied forces of the Luhansk People's militia have been closing in on Lysychansk since the fall of neighboring Severodonetsk.In a statement on its Telegram channel, the defense ministry claimed that a unit of the Ukrainian Azov regiment had been sent to "hold the personnel" of another Ukrainian unit at the settlement of Vovchoyarivka, near Lysychansk, where there has been heavy fighting.The Defense Ministry also claimed that it had eliminated two units of international "mercenaries" near Lysychansk, including a group of Georgian fighters. CNN has not independently verified the claim.The commander of one Ukrainian unit in Lysychansk had lost control over the majority of his troops, the defense ministry added without offering evidence for the claim.Meanwhile, all four missiles fired at a district of Kyiv on Sunday reached their target, which it described as "the workshops of the Artyom missile corporation" in the Shevchenkivskyi district, the defense ministry also said. "This enterprise produced ordnance for Ukrainian multiple rocket-launching systems (MRLS)."At least one missile, or wreckage from it, hit an apartment building, leaving one person dead and several injured, according to a CNN team at the site and Ukrainian officials.The Russian Defense Ministry said the damage to the residential building was caused by one Ukrainian system destroying an anti-air missile fired by another."Due to lack of interoperability between the launching ramps of the air defense systems and electronic facilities deployed in residential areas, 2 S-300 air defense missiles have been intercepted by Ukrainian Buk systems. One of the intercepted air defense missiles has presumably fallen down to a residential building," the defense ministry claimed.There is no independent evidence for such a scenario.1 hr 29 min agoNATO will enhance its battle groups in the eastern part of the allianceFrom CNN's Sharon Braithwaite in LondonNATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a news conference at the Alliance's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on June 27. (Johanna Geron/Reuters)NATO will enhance its battle groups in the eastern part of the alliance up to brigade levels, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced Monday."We will increase the number of high readiness forces to well over 300,000," he said at a news conference in Brussels.This includes "more pre-positioned equipment and stockpiles of military supplies; more forward-deployed capabilities, like air defense; strengthened command and control, and upgraded defense plans with forces pre-assigned to defend specific allies," Stoltenberg added.The NATO Response Force comprises around 40,000 troops, according to the NATO website. "These troops will exercise together with home defense forces. And they will become familiar with local terrain, facilities, and our new pre-positioned stocks so that they can respond smoothly and swiftly to any emergency," Stoltenberg went on to say, stressing that "this constitutes the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defense since the Cold War."These comments come ahead of the NATO summit that will be held in Madrid this week.The summit will be "transformative," with many important decisions, including on a new "strategic concept for a new security reality," Stoltenberg said Monday, adding that this will include a discussion on China "for the first time.""Our new concept will guide us in an era of strategic competition. I expect it will make clear that allies consider Russia as the most significant and direct threat to our security," Stoltenberg said. "It will address China for the first time. And the challenges that Beijing poses to our security, interests, and values."US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will likely speak in the coming weeks, the White House said. While there is no timeframe, the conversation will not happen immediately after the G7 meet, where China was a primary topic of discussion, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Germany.2 hr 14 min agoKremlin says there are "no grounds" to reports of default in RussiaFrom CNN’s Anna ChernovaThe Kremlin has rejected claims of a Russian default, commenting on reports of Moscow reneging on its foreign debt due to missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds. "Allegations of default are incorrect because the necessary currency payment was made as early as back in May," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday.Russian reserves have been frozen unduly and the fact that the money was not delivered to the recipients "is not our problem," Peskov added, referring to funds frozen by Euroclear, a Belgium-based financial services company specializing in the settlement of securities transaction."So there are no grounds to call it a default," Peskov said.Attempts to use the frozen reserves in any way would be "illegal" and regarded by Russia as an "outright theft," he added.Some background: Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, international banks have warned the country is barreling toward a default on its foreign debt payments, threatening to plunge its economy deeper into crisis. Defaults are murky territory in global economics, and Russia's situation is complicated by its growing isolation under the unprecedented sanctions imposed on it by Western powers.But the ruble has rebounded and it now worth more than before the invasion. Even McDonald's has reopened in Russia, under new branding and ownership.However, earlier this month US Treasury Department officials told CNN they are confident that sanctions are working and that, beneath the surface, a much more dire story is unfolding within Russia's economy, where they contend real and lasting damage is being inflicted.CNN's Allison Morrow and Phil Mattingly contributed reporting to this post. 2 hr 21 min agoG7 leaders "headed in the right direction" as they aim to "starve" Russia of oil money, US officials sayFrom CNN's Allie MalloyDiscussions among G7 leaders on creating a cap on price of Russian oil are “headed in the right direction,” US National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday.Leaders of the G7 are currently negotiating on capping the price of Russian oil, the latest step toward punishing Moscow while attempting to mitigate the economic effects of the war in Ukraine.How, when and by how much the price of Russian oil will be capped remains to be seen. Officials said the precise mechanism for accomplishing the cap is still being worked out at the summit. Sullivan stressed that while there was not a deal yet, the countries are “arriving at a point we believe where there is convergence around really trying to pursue this.” While he declined to provide a timeframe for this agreement, he said it could be done “relatively quickly.” In an earlier briefing on the matter, a senior administration official said the goal of the cap would be to “starve Russia” and Putin of his main source of cash and “force down the price of Russian oil to help blunt the impact of Putin’s war at the pump.”As oil prices have skyrocketed, Russia's oil revenues are actually up, despite global import bans. Leaders want to use their collective leverage to cut the revenue Russia receives from the countries still purchasing its oil. 1 hr 56 min agoBiden and Xi likely to speak in coming weeks, White House saysFrom CNN's Kevin LiptakUS President Joe Biden smiles at the start of a lunch with Representatives of Seven rich nations (G7) and Outreach guests during their fifth working session about "Investing in a better future: Climate, Energy, Health" on June 27, at Elmau Castle, Germany. (Susan Walsh/AFP/Getty Images)US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will likely speak in the coming weeks, the White House says. "We do expect that the President and President Xi will have the opportunity to engage over the course of the next few weeks. I can't put a particular timeframe on it. It's not going to be immediately after the G7," US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Germany.He said China had been a primary topic of discussion at this week's summit.He said that "there is increasing convergence at the G7 and NATO around the challenge poses" but that "competition does not mean confrontation.""We're not looking to divide the world into rival blocks and make every country choose" he said. "We want to stand for a set of principles that are fair to everybody. And we want to ensure that we're working with like-minded partners to hold China accountable to adhere to those rules."1 hr 25 min agoZelensky focused on regaining momentum in months — not years, US national security adviser saysFrom CNN's Kevin LiptakUkraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a working session of G7 leaders via video link from his office in Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 27. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters)Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was focused on regaining momentum in Ukraine over the coming months — and not years — when he spoke to leaders of the G7 on Monday, according to a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden."Zelensky was very much focused on trying to ensure that Ukraine is in as advantageous a position on the battlefield as possible in the next months as opposed to the next years, because he believes that a grinding conflict is not in the interest of the Ukrainian people," US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said after the meeting.Earlier, a source familiar with the matter told CNN that Zelensky told leaders he wanted the war to be over the end of the year, before winter sets in.Sullivan declined to characterize Zelensky's message. But he said the Ukrainian president was clear that he wants support in the near-and-medium term, not in the distant future."He would like to see his military, and those in the West who are supporting his military, make maximum use of the next few months to put the Ukrainians in as good a position as they can possibly be in with respect to the situation on the ground in both the east and the south," Sullivan said. "That's consistent with the American approach of trying to flow in the necessary material and equipment to put the Ukrainians in an advantageous position on the battlefield. But that's really what he was focused on," he said.Zelensky's timeframe was based on battlefield considerations but also the plight of his people, he said."I think another really important consideration is just the sense of suffering of the Ukrainian people with each day and week that this goes on," Sullivan said. "And so, he's got an urgency to try to show his people that Ukraine is first of all, holding fast against the Russian onslaught, and secondly, making some progress in areas where they feel that they can, in fact push back against the Russians." | Europe Politics |
Conservative grandees are urging Boris Johnson to quit after a historic double byelection defeat, as rebellious MPs began plotting new ways to oust him.The former Conservative leader Michael Howard was among those who demanded the prime minister stand down after the losses in Tiverton and Honiton, and Wakefield, which prompted the immediate resignation of the party’s co-chair, Oliver Dowden.In his pointed resignation letter, widely regarded as a call to others to act, Dowden told the prime minister, “we cannot carry on with business as usual. Someone must take responsibility”.Johnson’s critics are hoping to secure a majority on the executive of the influential 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, in the hope they can change the party’s rules to allow a fresh confidence vote without waiting for a year.As the scale of the twin defeats sunk in – both with worse-than-expected swings against the Conservatives – a string of senior Tories added their voices to those calling for Johnson to go. Asked whether the prime minister should quit, Howard said, “I do”.“The party and more importantly the country would be better off under new leadership,” he added. “Members of the cabinet should very carefully consider their positions. It may be necessary for the executive of the 1922 Committee to meet and to decide to change the rules so another leadership could take place.”Former foreign secretary Malcolm Rifkind suggested discontented ministers could act together to persuade Johnson to step aside.“I think it is hugely in the public interest that preferably the prime minister seeks their views. If he’s not willing to see their views, because you might be rather worried of what they might say to him, then they must, at least in some number, come together and go and see him,” he said.Johnson struck a defensive tone at a press conference in the Rwandan capital of Kigali, where he is attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit, refusing to admit anything about his own behaviour was to blame for the byelection calamities.“I genuinely, genuinely don’t think the way forward in British politics is to focus on issues of personalities whether they are mine or others,” he said. “No doubt people will continue to beat me up and say this or that and to attack me”He added: “In the end, voters, journalists, they have no one else to make their complaints to. I have to take that. But I also have to get on with the job of delivering for the people of this country and that’s what I was elected to do.”The prime minister is not due to return to the UK until Thursday evening, after attending a G7 summit in Germany and a Nato meeting in Spain.Keir Starmer claimed the Tory party was “absolutely imploding” after Labour won Wakefield with a 12.7% swing – enough to secure a majority government if replicated nationwide.In Tiverton and Honiton, the 24,239 Tory majority the LibDems swept aside was the largest ever overturned in a byelection. “Boris Johnson has deceived the British people and taken them for granted, for far too long,” said Lib Dem leader Ed Davey at a victory rally.“He has lost the confidence of his own party. He has lost the confidence of the people of Tiverton and Honiton – a seat his party has held for more than 100 years. And he has lost the confidence of the country,” he added.Andrew RT Davies, the Conservative leader in Wales, also broke ranks to criticise the prime minister for the first time, telling BBC Radio Wales: “Each and every day the prime minister gets up, like any leader, they have to look in the mirror and ask themselves: ‘Can they continue to deliver for their country and for the people who have put them into office?’”Andrew Bridgen, one of Johnson’s most persistent critics, told the Guardian he would be putting himself up for election to the 1922 executive a specific platform of changing the rules to allow another vote of confidence. More than 40% of Johnson’s MPs voted against him earlier this month, but another challenge is usually not allowed for a year.Bridgen said the 1922 election could be regarded as a “stalking horse” bid to change the prime minister. “The 1922 is a vote of the party. If the places are filled with people who are pro-rule change, a sensible person in No 10 might think the game is up,” he said.Former Brexit minister Steve Baker echoed the call for Johnson’s cabinet to act. “Like so many backbench MPs, I am looking to the cabinet for leadership, especially from those who aspire to be seen to provide it,” he said.Another senior party figure who has until now supported Johnson told the Guardian: “It wouldn’t do him any harm if he wanted to look in the mirror. He needs to ask himself, have I got the stomach for this, and am I going to be able to do this. Is it me?”Most of the cabinet remained silent through Friday. The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, tweeted: “We all take responsibility for the results and I’m determined to continue working to tackle the cost of living”.A Conservative party source dismissed claims that cabinet members had been slow to offer support as “barrel-scraping” – and that he had spoken to his health secretary, Sajid Javid, and others.“He has spoken to Saj, [Stephen] Barclay and others. Raab and Priti were on the media before nine,” the source said. | United Kingdom Politics |
Boris steers away from bishop bashing: Number 10 says there are 'no plans' to kick clergy out of House of Lords after they claimed Rwanda migrant plan 'shames' BritainPM has 'no plans' to kick 26 bishops out of the House of Lords, Number 10 saysThe Church leadership criticised an 'immoral' plan to send migrants to RwandaCabinet ministers were claimed to be openly talking about expelling bishops Published: 09:27 EDT, 15 June 2022 | Updated: 10:47 EDT, 15 June 2022 Downing Street today played down suggestions that all 26 bishops could be kicked out of the House of Lords after they criticised the Government's Rwanda migration scheme.In an excoriating letter this week, the entire senior leadership of the Church of England claimed the 'immoral' plan to send migrants to Africa 'shames Britain'.The Church, led by the Archbishops of Canterbury and York, has been a leading opponent of the £120million scheme.Recent weeks have seen a deepening war-of-words between the Church and Boris Johnson, as well as other senior Government ministers.But Number 10 this afternoon dismissed suggestions that direct action could be taken against the Church.It had been reported that Cabinet ministers were openly talking about expelling the 26 bishops from the House of Lords - with one noting that Iran is the only other country to have religious leaders sitting in their parliament.Yet, asked if the Prime Minister wanted Church leaders ejected from the upper chamber, Mr Johnson's press secretary said: 'There are no plans to do that.' Boris Johnson has 'no plans' to kick 26 bishops out of the House of Lords, Number 10 said today Church of England archbishops and bishops - who criticised the Government's Rwanda plan - sit in the House of Lords as the Lords Spiritual Home Secretary Priti Patel plans to send migrants who enter Britain illegally to Rwanda to have their asylum claims processed The entire senior leadership of the Church of England claimed plan to send migrants to Africa 'shames Britain'Under an agreement struck with Kigali in April, Home Secretary Priti Patel plans to send migrants who enter Britain illegally thousands of miles away to have their asylum claims processed.Her scheme has yet to get up and running after the European Court of Human Rights blocked a first flight to Rwanda last night.Church of England archbishops and bishops sit in the House of Lords as the Lords Spiritual.In their letter this week, published in The Times, the 25 current members of the Lords Spiritual claimed the Rwanda policy 'should shame us as a nation'.'The shame is our own, because our Christian heritage should inspire us to treat asylum seekers with compassion, fairness and justice, as we have for centuries,' they wrote.'Those to be deported to Rwanda have had no chance to appeal, or reunite with family in Britain.'They have had no consideration of their asylum claim, recognition of their medical or other needs, or any attempt to understand their predicament.'Their letter added: 'We cannot offer asylum to everyone, but we must not outsource our ethical responsibilities, or discard international law — which protects the right to claim asylum.'We must end the evil trafficking; many churches are involved in fighting it. This needs global co-operation across every level of society.'To reduce dangerous journeys to the UK we need safe routes: the church will continue to advocate for them.'But deportations — and the potential forced return of asylum seekers to their home countries — are not the way. This immoral policy shames Britain.'Following the bishops' intervention, TalkTV presenter Tom Newton Dunn reported that Cabinet ministers were openly talking about expelling them from the Lords.He revealed on Twitter that one minister had told him: 'Only Iran also has clerics that sit in their legislature. They'll go.' Advertisement | United Kingdom Politics |
Indonesian Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar speaks during the G20 Joint Environment and Climate Ministers' Meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, August 31, 2022. Made Nagi/ Pool via REUTERSRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comJAKARTA, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Indonesia and Norway have agreed to start a new partnership to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation in the Southeast Asian country, officials said on Monday, after Jakarta ended a similar pact last year citing a lack of payments.Indonesia, home to a third of the world's rainforests, has lost large swathes of forest due to the expansion of crops such as palm oil but the government has said the deforestation rate has slowed and that balance is needed to allow development.Indonesia's environment minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar and her Norwegian counterpart Espen Barth Eide on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding in Jakarta on a new agreement.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe new forest and climate partnership encompasses a results-based model, where Indonesia sets the strategy and manages the funds, while Norway contributes annual results-based financial contributions for Indonesia's emission reductions, the Norwegian government said.Eide said Norway would disburse contributions based on verified emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation in 2016 to 2020 under the existing measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) protocol."Contribution for results generated in 2020-2021 onwards will be based on updated MRV protocol," Eide said.The first such payment amounting to $56 million for emission reductions in the August 2016 to July 2017 period, could be paid once a contribution agreement is established, Eide said.Indonesia in 2021 severed its deal with Norway due to a lack of payment after Jakarta said it had met its commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of 11.2 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide emissions in 2016-2017. read more During climate talks in Glasgow last year, Indonesia declined to back a plan to end deforestation by 2030 but pledged a "carbon net sink" in its forestry sector by then, meaning that the sector will absorb more greenhouse gas emissions than it emits by the end of the decade. read more "The MOU is also to emphasize the importance of deliverables tangible and direct benefits for the community and for the progress of Indonesia in pursuant to the prevailing governance," said Indonesia's Siti.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Bernadette Christina
Editing by Ed DaviesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Global Organizations |
Key events:3m agoFour-year-old girl killed in strike18m agoVinnytsia death toll climbs to 23, dozens missing29m agoSummary and welcomeShow key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this featureFour-year-old girl killed in strikeA four-year-old girl was killed in the Vinnytsia strike with social media posts charting her life and death. Footage – which the Guardian is not publishing – showed Liza Dmitrieva lying dead in her overturned pushchair. “A girl is among the dead today in Vinnytsia, she was four years old, her name was Liza. The child was four years old! Her mother is in critical condition,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his latest national address.Liza’s mother, Iryna had taken her to an education centre in a city most believed was far from the frontlines, a four-hour drive west of the capital, Kyiv.But Liza never made it home. Just after 11am, three missiles of seven reportedly fired from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea smashed into the square. Amid the carnage, footage captured Liza lying dead in her overturned pushchair. Nearby is a severed foot. The arm of a soldier reaches for the pushchair.Vinnytsia death toll climbs to 23, dozens missingThe central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia is reeling from a Russian missile attack that struck civilian buildings and a cultural centre, killing at least 23 people – including three children – and wounding dozens more.As the city of 370,000 - many of whom fled from eastern Ukraine to escape frontline artillery fire - wakes up, rescue teams continue to comb the wreckage as authorities report 39 people are still feared missingUkraine: footage appears to show moment after Russian missile hit Vinnytsia shopping mall – videoIhor Klymenko, the national police chief, said only six of the dead had been identified so far. Of the 66 people taken to hospital, five remained in critical condition while 34 sustained severe injuries, Ukraine’s state emergency service said in an update issued just after 10pm on Thursday.A Russian submarine in the Black Sea fired Kalibr cruise missiles at the city, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, wrote on the Telegram messaging app.The Russian military did not immediately confirm the strike, but Margarita Simonyan, head of the state-controlled Russian television network RT, said on her messaging app channel that military officials told her a building in Vinnytsia was targeted because it housed Ukrainian “Nazis”.Summary and welcomeHello and welcome back to the Guardian’s rolling live coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine.I’m Samantha Lock and I will be bringing you all the latest developments for the next short while.Finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies are meeting in Bali today, as host Indonesia tries to find common ground in talks overshadowed by war.Ukraine’s state emergency service says it is still searching for 46 people who are considered missing after a Russian missile strike in the city of Vinnytsia, in central Ukraine. It is 7.30am in Kyiv and here is where things currently stand: At least 23 people, including three children, were killed and up to 66 others wounded after Russian missiles struck civilian buildings and a cultural centre in the city of Vinnytsia, in central Ukraine. The attack on Vinnytsia, far from the war’s front lines, occurred mid-morning on Thursday when the streets were full of people. Ukraine’s state emergency service says it is still searching for 39 people who are considered missing, while 34 remain in serious condition. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, called the Russian attack in Vinnytsia “an open act of terrorism”. In a video address at The Hague conference, Zelenskiy urged European and international criminal court officials to open a “special tribunal” to investigate Russia’s invasion of his country. A top Ukrainian official said the missile attacks in Vinnytsia were an “approved military strategy” by Vladimir Putin. Mykhailo Podolyak, the head of Ukraine’s negotiating team and a key adviser to Zelenskiy, said Russian forces were attacking “peaceful” Ukrainian cities such as Vinnytsia, Kremenchuk, Chasiv Yar and Kharkiv in order to force Ukrainians to “peace at any price”, Podolyak wrote on Twitter. Russia’s attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities were not a mistake but an approved military strategy A four-year-old girl was killed in the Vinnytsia strike with social media posts charting her life and death. Footage – which the Guardian is not publishing – showed Liza Dmitrieva lying dead in her overturned pushchair. “A girl is among the dead today in Vinnytsia, she was four years old, her name was Liza. The child was four years old!” Zelenskiy said. “Her mother is in critical condition.” The world’s largest security body has expressed “grave concern” about the alleged mistreatment of tens of thousands of Ukrainians in so-called filtration centres set up by Russia in Ukraine. Tens of thousands of civilians are taken to these centres in the self-proclaimed breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine, before being deported to Russia, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said. Russia has forcibly removed nearly 2 million people from Ukraine, including more than 200,000 children, since its invasion in February, Zelenskiy said. “It is still being established how many children Russian forces abducted and took out of Ukraine … The preliminary figure is dreadful – about 200,000 children,” he told the Ukraine Accountability Conference in The Hague on Thursday. The United States and more than 40 other countries have agreed to coordinate investigations into suspected war crimes in Ukraine. On Thursday, 45 countries including European Union states as well as Britain, the US, Canada, Mexico and Australia at a conference in The Hague signed a political declaration to work together. With some 23,000 war crimes investigations now open and different countries heading teams, evidence needed to be credible and organised, officials said. The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has said Russia’s war in Ukraine poses the greatest threat to the global economy. Representatives of Putin’s regime “have no place” at a meeting of the G20 countries in Bali, she said, adding that she would continue to press allies for a price cap on Russian oil, which she said would “deny Putin revenue his war machine needs”. Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said Kyiv was “definitely a step closer” to reaching a deal to export grain through its Black Sea ports after talks with Russia, Turkey and the United Nations. Turkey earlier announced a deal with Ukraine, Russia and the UN aimed at resuming Ukrainian grain exports blocked by Russia. Vladimir Putin signed into law tougher measures for individuals or entities considered “foreign agents” by Russia, as well as a new law equating defection with high treason. The new bill, which will come into force on 1 December, will broaden the definition of “foreign agents” to anyone deemed to have fallen “under foreign influence” or receiving support from abroad, not just foreign money. Russia has begun “volunteer mobilisations” to address its soldier shortage, according to the Institute for the Study of War. In a new report, the US-based thinktank said the Kremlin had “likely ordered Russian ‘federal subjects’ (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilisation in Russia”. Emergency teams work at the site of a missile strike in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, where at least 23 people, including three children, were killed. Photograph: Roman Pilipey/EPA | Europe Politics |
Putin’s war is fundamentally changing the make-up of the world. And that is not a good thing. While it is tempting to say the Cold War is back, the changes are more subtle than that: the Cold War was a clash of two ideologies – communism and capitalism – whereas today even Russia has a capitalist system and is deeply integrated into the global economy. But the global economy is being broken into two camps: a US-led bloc made up of largely G7 members and a Sino-Russia led bloc largely composed of emerging markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The two camps will still trade and invest in each other, but there are now extreme government-imposed restrictions that will act as a brake on growth, a reversal of globalisation and result in persistently higher inflation and lower productive amongst other things. Just how this will play out, just how much commerce will remain between the two sides, or indeed if the clash will lead to a global war, remains unclear. But what is already clear is that the change is already doing a lot of damage and the global economy will take years to recover. “The world economy is fracturing into China- and US-aligned blocs. This will result in shifts in supply chains and reduced technology and investment flows between the two over the coming decade. Geopolitical considerations will play a greater role in economic policy than they have for a generation. If the shifts are gradual, economies and financial markets in much – but not all – of the world will adapt without too much cost. However, antagonism between the blocs means that the risk of a more abrupt decoupling will cast a shadow over the outlook,” Capital Economics said in a paper that looked at the fracturing of the global economy. The sanctions regime on Russia has accelerated the reversal of decades of increasing globalisation that already started during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The most obvious example is the complete remake of the energy system in Europe that has functioned smoothly since the 1970s, and sparked an energy crisis that is likely to get worse. The world is currently experiencing the “first truly global energy crisis,” according to the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol. Speaking at the opening of the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW-2022) on October 25, Birol warned that natural gas shortages could worsen significantly in 2023 and higher prices and supply shortages will persist well into 2024. In particular, demand is expected to increase from both China and Europe, which will need additional volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to fill underground storage before next winter, which is not available. Birol predicts a similar risk in the oil market due to OPEC+’s risky decision to reduce production quotas by 2mn barrels per day announced in October. Birol warns that this energy crisis could deepen the gap between rich and developing countries, which will catalyse the “geopolitical split” between the developed economies of the world and Emerging markets. “Since the beginning of 2021, European gas and electricity prices have recorded a rapid increase, which, with a slight delay, has now been affecting households and businesses since summer 2022. We are at a point where the situation is so dramatic that [Western] small and medium-sized enterprises [SMEs] in particular could fall into insolvency without government support. Private households are also dependent on state aid given that electricity and gas costs have been exploding. In this environment, the growth outlook has therefore deteriorated considerably,” Erste Bank said in its recent attempt assess the changes. (chart) The US has already slapped extreme sanctions on Russia, effectively excluding it from the global financial system and cutting it off from essential technology, but in the second week of October things went up a gear after the US widened its technology war by introducing extremely harsh export controls on China that experts say will “destroy its semiconductor sector” overnight. China is now as cut off from US hi-tech as Russia. Europe is also closing its markets to Russia, banning the import of raw materials and the exports of high-tech products and basic inputs that Russian industry needs to function. The breakup is accelerating the deglobalisation trend that was already underway before the war in Ukraine broke out in February. The coronavirus pandemic disrupted long supply chains stretching from Beijing to Berlin and companies were remaking them, looking for suppliers closer to home to buy some immunity from the next pandemic. “Supply security” has become the post-pandemic by-word. Sanctions have only catalysed this deglobalisation and are being entirely driven by worsening foreign relations. Russian oil ships needed only a few days to sail to German ports, but now already spend weeks at sea to deliver Siberian oil to customers in India. Likewise, factories in the EU heartland have had to abandon Russian coal and buy it from Australia on the other side of the planet, adding to the costs and inconvenience, which eats into prosperity. The Russian induced energy crisis has also led to the closure of large energy-intensive industries in the EU alarmingly fast. The bifurcation is also undermining the multinational institutions. The WTO was already being largely sidelined, but the IMF’s effectiveness could also be in jeopardy if it is seen as being controlled by the US. The BRICS countries have already banded together to set up the BRICS bank, a development bank owned by the leading Emerging Markets without US involvement. The UN could also be badly affected. During the golden years of globalisation following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the number of Security Council vetoes fell to next to nothing, while the number UN peacekeeping missions expanded vastly as the global community got used to working together. Both those trends are likely to be reversed now as UN returns to something similar to its Cold War polarisation. (chart, chart) The immediate cost of the fracturing of the world will be a global slowdown. The director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, said at the fund’s annual meeting in October that the cost of the current economic dislocation would be $4 trillion between now and 2026, but the EU alone has already spent nearly €1 trillion on relief and subsidies to deal with the energy and cost-of-living crises before the heating season has got under way. That bill is only expected to grow. Economists say that Europe has probably already gone into recession and the downturn will probably persist throughout most of next year. The hope is that the recession will be short-lived, but if it lasts, fuelled by persistent inflation and the stubborn energy crisis, then there is a danger of “recession scaring,” according to Oxford Economics. (chart) “[Worsening inflation and the persistent energy crisis] carry with them a high risk of long-term scarring. An historical analysis by Blanchard et al. looking at 23 advanced economies over 50 years found that around two-thirds of recessions were associated with output being below the extrapolated pre-recession trend 3-7 years later and in a significant share of these cases, the rate of output growth being lower too ('super-hysteresis'). Similar results are visible in research by Cerra and Saxena and for emerging markets in a recent World Bank study. The mechanisms by which these permanent losses may occur are varied, including human capital losses due to unemployment, delays to investments that are not fully recovered, and damage to innovation from lower rates of firm formation,” Oxford Economics in its look at the long-term consequences of the current crisis. Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/Blanchard, Cerutti & Summers (2015) * for eleven deliberate disinflations. Note pre-recession trend growth is calculated for a four-year period starting two years before the recession begins to try to avoid overestimating trend growth by including boom years. To avoid the worst-case scenarios Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF, warned in a recent blog that central banks will have to strike a delicate balance between aggressively hiking rates to curb inflation, but not to overdo it and fall into a deep recession that will be difficult to climb out of, but also difficult to avoid. “There are risks of both under- and over-tightening. Under-tightening would further entrench inflation, erode the credibility of central banks and de-anchor inflation expectations. As history teaches us, this would only increase the eventual cost of bringing inflation under control,” Gourinchas said. “Over-tightening risks pushing the global economy into an unnecessarily severe recession.” And all of this assumes the stand-off with Russia does not descend into general or even nuclear war, which now has a non-zero chance of happening. The world has entered into a polycrisis, as economist Adam Tooze has dubbed it. However, with so many moving parts and so much uncertainty in the progression of the war in Ukraine, it is impossible to say how bad things will get, according to Liam Peach, an emerging market economist with Capital Economics, and Tomas Dvorak, an economist with Oxford Economic in a recent podcast with bne IntelliNews. ______________________________________________________ BOX: Seven factors slowing long-term global growth Oxford Economics outlined seven dangers the global economy faces in the coming years: § Alongside near-term recession risks, global growth also faces longer-term headwinds. These include demographics, weaker productivity growth, regional shifts in economic importance, slower growth in China, deglobalisation and climate change. So, although we also see a few upside risks, our baseline forecast is for world growth to slip to just 2% per year by 2040. § Looming recessions in several economies are a longer-term growth risk as well. Recessions caused by deliberate disinflation – potentially the sort we face now – have on average resulted in 2%-4% lower G7 GDP in the long run compared with an extrapolated pre-recession trend. § The global demographic drag is significant. Labour supply growth in advanced economies will halve in 2020-2030 compared to the previous decade, with an even starker decline in emerging economies. Further improvements in the quality of human capital will not be able to offset this. § China's slowdown is a big deal given how much it has contributed to global growth over the last decade. Growth in other regions such as India and Africa will not be able to offset this. Concerns about deglobalisation are often exaggerated, but the trend away from global trade liberalisation is clear, and we think technological 'decoupling' between advanced economies and economies like China and Russia is a genuine risk that would have global costs. § The transition to net zero will be difficult to manage, with a wide range of potential outcomes. Without well-targeted structural policies, it could cut world GDP by around 2% by 2050. § Some of these headwinds can be mitigated by clever policymaking. But the best chance of better-than-expected long-term growth comes from a step up in productivity growth from technological improvements, such as robotics. But productivity growth has been slowing and is subject to downside risks from recent global shocks and signs of convergence of productivity growth in emerging economies with that in advanced economies. ______________________________________________________ Globalisation & supply security A golden decades-long supercycle of low inflation and large productivity has just come to an end. The gains were driven by the alignment of globalisation of commerce, a revolution in technology, and the end of the socialist experiment. The 3bn people living in the East were united with the 3bn people living in the West and business boomed. All three of those tailwinds have come around the compass and are now headwinds. There have been three episodes of globalisation so far: 1870 to 1914, 1945-1971 and the most recently following the end of the Cold War in 1990 to 2018, according to Capital Economics. (chart) In the last one cross-border trade flows increased five-fold and foreign direct investment (FDI) was up seven-fold. Not only was trade globalised but financial flows were too. That is exactly what is being undone now. Undoing globalisation will extract a heavy toll on productivity and so hobble growth going forward, as we are likely entering a new super-cycle of high inflation and low productivity gains. That will have political consequences too. “Productivity growth in both the G7 and EM slowed sharply after the oil shocks in the 1970s and again after the global financial crisis [in 2008]. A moderate recent recovery is now under threat from the further shocks related to the pandemic, soaring energy prices and Russia's war on Ukraine,” Oxford Economics said in a recent note. (chart) In the 1970s when globalisation started, the world enjoyed a boost from favourable demographics and rising productivity. “These factors now constitute headwinds. Most of the world faces a demographic cliff, [and] globalisation is stalling or reversing, resulting in diminishing efficiency and productivity,” says bne IntelliNews columnist Les Nemethy in a column about the polycrisis. The demographic problem is worst in Europe where the population is falling, and crashing in some countries like Spain and the Baltic States, but populations are in declining in many countries in the world and in all of Russia, China, India and Brazil. The only country with a growing population in the two big blocs is the US and almost all of Africa, which has the fastest growth in the world. Populations around the world are already facing a cost-of-living crisis induced by the coronavirus pandemic and the stress signs are already visible. Protests appeared in Albania in March and since have broken out in a score of countries including Ghana, Czechia and Germany. So far, these protests remain limited to Europe’s poorest countries or the political fringe groups in the richer ones, but the clash between Russia and the West will increase social tensions as the polycrisis increasingly affects populations in the form of higher bills and rising unemployment. In one indicator, a new study by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) finds child poverty has risen by 19% in countries across Southeast and Eastern Europe and Eurasia as a result of the war in Ukraine. Overall, an additional 10.4mn individuals, or around 2.5% of the total population of 22 countries assessed across the region, will fall into poverty due to the economic shock related to the war in Ukraine, including 4mn children. While children make up 25% of the region’s total population, they will account for 40% of the increase in poverty. The single worst affected country is Russia, according to the research. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has rebounded on its own population, with the most significant increase in the number of children living in poverty; an additional 2.8mn children now live in households below the poverty line. That is almost three-quarters of the total increase across the region. At least an additional half million children in Ukraine will also be plunged into poverty. The actual figure is most likely more. The World Bank recently estimated that a quarter of Ukraine’s population is already living in poverty, and that figure will rise to 55% next year. Capital Economics estimates that expanded trade was responsible for half of the acceleration in productivity growth in emerging economies after 1990 and globalisation also contributed, through trade links and the free movement of low-cost migrant workers, to keeping developed world inflation pressures low. The UK boomed in the noughties, but an army of “Polish plumbers” kept wage inflation and hence cost rises down. The fall of the Soviet Union and the accession of the new Central European countries to the EU, along with more open borders, and the explosion of the Internet and technology in general, all contributed to the globalisation bump to productivity gains. By 2010, 97% of world goods exports (and 98% of commercial services exports) came from members of the WTO, according to Capital Economics, and the globalisation drive began to run out of steam. Then the system was hit by three shocks: former US president Donald Trump's trade war on China; the coronavirus pandemic; and now Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Having said that, the fracturing of the world is not the same as deglobalisation. “Apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned blocs will continue as before. And where production does shift away from China, it is likely to move to other EMs within the US-aligned bloc, rather than relocating back to advanced economies,” Capital Economics says. Russia remains a capitalist society and its businessmen will continue to try to trade with the rest of the world, which in return will continue to want to source Russian commodities and Chinese goods that have not been sanctioned. That will result in significant sanctions leakage as bne IntelliNews has already explored in a series of articles. Fracturing is driven by governments, not companies. But global trade is very lopsided. The trade between the US and China-aligned blocs amounts to between a quarter and a third of global trade, which is the share of trade that is vulnerable to fracturing, according to Capital Economics. And two thirds of China’s exports go to the US bloc whereas imports make up only 15%, making China very exposed to sanctions. (chart) These three things have shifted thinking and introduced the idea of “supply security” that is increasing dislodging “cheap” as the main consideration for where to build your factory. “Reshoring” or even “friendshoring” have become fashionable terms, while other companies simply choose to hold bigger inventories of key inputs. (chart) The disruption in supplies and the potential for even worse interruptions if China and Russia start to restrict their exports of key commodities have filtered through to governments that are now actively pursuing policies to break their dependencies on key inputs from the Sino-Russian bloc, undoing decades of cross-border investment and the raison d'etre of globalisation. US and EU have both launched strikingly similar action plans that identify the following classes of goods as “strategic”. USA EU semiconductor manufacturing & advanced packaging Semiconductors high-capacity batteries batteries critical minerals strategic materials, elements raw materials (including rare earths and others on a "critical raw materials" list pharmaceuticals & active pharmaceutical ingredients active pharmaceutical ingredients Hydrogen cloud and edge computing Source: Capital Economics “The significant overlap between the studies suggests that Western governments have a shared view on the inputs that are either most vulnerable to disruption or most important strategically and for which measures to address supply chain vulnerabilities are most needed,” says Capital Economics. The Western world’s reliance on China’s rare earth metals is already well known but the coronavirus pandemic revealed that the West is also heavily reliant on China for medicine. According to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, around 40% of the generic drugs sold in the US have a single global manufacturer, most of them dependent on active pharmaceutical ingredients sourced from China. The US review also highlighted its dependency on Taiwan-based Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) semiconductors, including for weapons manufacture, adding to Taiwan’s strategic importance for Washington. The European Commission identified 137 products in its six focus areas for which the EU is highly dependent on imports from outside the EU. China is the source for more than half of these imports by value. For its part, China is also actively working to break its dependence on imports from the West. “And it has been at it longer,” Capital Economics comments. China launched its “Made in China 2025” technology roadmap in 2015 that includes explicit targets for self-sufficiency in many areas. Russia has also tried to kick start its high-tech sector and promote innovation, but all these efforts have resulted in abysmal failures. (chart) Tech wars Europe is at a disadvantage in the energy war with Russia, which remains a major supplier, but where the West dominates is in its control of technology. The collapse of the Soviet Union came at a very inopportune time for Russia, as the almost two decades of chaos that followed meant that it missed out on two revolutions in the development of precision tools, as featured by bne IntelliNews a year ago. Experts say that it is simply not possible to Russia to catch up with the West in less than a generation if not longer. Almost half of Russia’s imports over the last three decades have been machinery and equipment, as it has been unable to fill this gap on its own. Despite being the first country in the world to put a man into space, Russia is even further behind with electronics (although not with software). During the war in Ukraine, the Russian army has been dismantling washing machines to raid their chips to use in replacement missiles, as Russia has no domestic production to speak of. The sanctions on the export of machines and electronics to Russia are by far the most effective and will have devastating long-term consequences, condemning its economy to stagnation in the years to come. With Russia already effectively cut off from almost all Western tech, the US took things to a new level in October by imposing sanctions on China that have destroyed its semiconductor industry overnight, bring down the same sort of crippling sanctions on Beijing that are already in place on Moscow. The Biden administration imposed a series of export controls that carry extreme penalties: any US person or company exporting restricted technology to China or just working there for a tech firm will be stripped of their citizenship and could serve long prison sentences at home. There’s also a licence requirement for the export of American tools or components to China-based fabrication plants. Overnight all US executives and companies working in China left the country as the new rules were suddenly put in place. The controls have caused the “complete collapse” of China’s semiconductor industry, according to one expert. “This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero at a stroke,” an entrepreneur who tweets under the name Lidang wrote in a thread translated by Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group. “To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship,” Lidang wrote. “Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.” The decision is an overt and aggressive move to cut the Sino-Russia block off from the latest technology forever and ensure the US maintains a hegemonistic technology lead over the rest of the world. Critically, not only will these rules doom the Sino-Russian block to long-term lower productivity, but it should also ensure the US maintains a large lead in the production of advanced weaponry. “I don’t need to tell you that advancements in science and technology are poised to define the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century,” US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan said in remarks rolling out the new technology strategy on September 16. “They will generate game-changers in health and medicine, food security and clean energy. We’ll see leap-ahead breakthroughs and new industries that drive our prosperity. And, of course, new military and intelligence capabilities that will shape our national security. Preserving our edge in science and technology is not a “domestic issue” or “national security” issue; it’s both.” The White House has rapidly beefed up its technology drive and recently launched the US CHIPS act that includes $52bn of subsidies for domestic semiconductor manufacturing over the next five years, with a ban on recipients of that money from expanding semiconductor manufacturing in China and other "countries of concern" over the next decade. It has also been bullying semiconductor global giant TSMC to open factories in the US. TSMC is one of only three companies capable of producing sub-10nm semiconductors. High-end semiconductors are extremely difficult to make and thanks to its expertise a staggering 54% of the world’s chip production has become concentrated in TSMC’s factories in Taiwan. The other two companies are America’s Intel and South Korea’s Samsung. China’s leading chip maker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporate (SMIC) has a 6% market share but cannot make the sub-10nm chips the leading three companies can. That puts the world’s entire high-end chip making production capacity inside the US bloc. (chart) TSMC is planning to invest $40bn in new factories this year, but one of them will be in Arizona, its only plant outside Taiwan. The decision to build in the US was made “at the insistence of the US government,” TSMC founder Morris Chang said in a recent interview. The US has started a tech war that it intends to win. Sullivan outlined the US plan starting with “recharging the engine of American technological dynamism and innovation.” “The EO on Biotech and Biomanufacturing ensures that we not only design the next generation of medicines, materials, and fuels here, but also make them here. From lab to fab, as they say,” Sullivan said. The second pillar is developing, attracting and retaining top talent. But the third pillar is extreme protectionism in technology. “The third pillar is protecting our technology advantages, and preventing our competitors from stealing America’s intellectual property, and using our technologies against us or their own people,” Sullivan said. “On export controls, we have to revisit the long-standing premise of maintaining “relative” advantages over competitors in certain key technologies. We previously maintained a “sliding scale” approach that said we need to stay only a couple of generations ahead. That is not the strategic environment we are in today.” Sullivan explicitly outlined a wartime strategy that specifically named Russia as an enemy and cited technology sanctions as weapons. “If implemented in a way that is robust, durable and comprehensive, they can be a new strategic asset in the US and allied toolkit to impose costs on adversaries, and even over time degrade their battlefield capabilities,” Sullivan said. Now that weapon has been rolled out and used against China. Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning has accused the US of “abusing export control measures to wantonly block and hobble Chinese enterprises”. “Such practice runs counter to the principle of fair competition and international trade rules,” Mao said. “It will not only harm Chinese companies’ legitimate rights and interests, but also hurt the interests of US companies.” Stagflation The oil shock in 1973 and an energy crisis in 1979 plunged the world into a decade of miserable stagflation where production collapsed but prices remain stubbornly high, laying the ground work for a string of financial crises that struck in the 1980s. Stagflation is back. The IMF warned in April that a repeat of the 1970s experience is a major threat and again in its October outlook said central banks urgently need to do something about inflation, but they must tread careful. Failing to curb price rises will make taming inflation more painful later, whereas overdoing the rate hikes will plunge the world into a deep recession that will also permanently slow growth. There is not a lot of wiggle room between these two extremes. So how are regulators doing? The key to rate hikes is to set the prime rate above the rate of inflation – to make sure banks are offering real positive interest rates, which will encourage people to save their money rather than spend it. However, despite the increasingly aggressive hikes put in place this year, real interest rates are mostly negative (red in the heat map). Most central banks across Europe have fallen behind the curve. CPI inflation, monetary policy interest rates and real interest rates. Enter the names of countries in the box to see individual or groups of countries’ data. As the heat map shows, real interest rates are in the red across much of Europe, with the Baltics and Moldova in particularly bad shape, where inflation is well over 20% in all four states. In Poland, Hungary and Czechia inflation is 17.2%, 20.1% and 18% respectively, whereas the prime rates are half that at 6.75%, 11.75% and 7% respectively, leaving all three countries with deeply negative rates, even after a series of emergency rate hikes in Hungary in recent weeks. Capital Economics says that rates are set to stay high for a while longer. Russia’s emergency rate hike to 20% days after the invasion of Ukraine in February stands out as a blue box in the middle of the chart, but the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has been cutting rates fast since then. Russia currently the only country in Europe where inflation is falling and the regulator has gone back to easing monetary policy. (chart) But the CBR lockdown of the financial system days after the invasion of Ukraine means its macroeconomic results are seen as largely artificial. There is some room to manoeuvre in the rate setting, as much of the inflation is driven by things that central banks can’t control: 70% of the current inflation is driven by rising food and energy prices, which only make up about a third of the basket. (chart) “The eurozone inflation final estimate for September was revised to 9% year on year, marginally down from 10% in the preliminary estimate. The revision is mostly cosmetic and does not alter the picture of strong inflation pressures, which are not yet diminishing. To make it worse for the ECB, there is also a historically high dispersion within eurozone countries, with inflation rates varying from 20% among Baltics countries and around 6% in France,” Oxford Economics said in a recent note. The ECB recently was forced to put in a 75bp rate hike for the first time ever and economists say more large rate hikes are on the way. Against the extraordinary inflation pressures, the coming global recession will be disinflationary in its own right, so the CBR can afford to cut rates faster than inflation is falling. CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina is currently more worried about soft landing the contracting Russian economy and allowing negative real rates to encourage spending and growth, otherwise the contraction will overshoot, and the recession becomes unnecessarily deep. Monetary policy meetings have become like driving a car in a slide on an icy road as everyone pumps the brakes carefully, trying to avoid losing control. Two blocs raw materials The Russians have a legend that when God was making the world he was flying over Siberia when the tarpaulin on his sled came loose and rained down riches – oil, coal, diamonds, gold and every kind of mineral – onto the land below. So, he froze it to prevent anyone from stealing this treasure. As the world coalesces into two blocs the distribution of mineral and energy resources is very unevenly distributed, as are the trade relations. China exported $521bn worth of goods to the US in 2021, while Chinese exports to Russia stood at $59bn, down from around $140bn the year before. Similarly, India’s top trade partner is the United States, which accounted for 18.1% of the total 2021, worth $71bn, whereas Russia is not even among India’s top 25 trade partners. The breakup will not have a major impact on the US-aligned bloc, other than to make problems in sourcing some raw materials, but it will have a much bigger impact on China-led bloc. China’s own current economic slowdown will also be a problem for both the bloc and the global economy. (chart) “One consequence is that even if not much appears to change for advanced economies, the shape of the world in 2050 could be very different from what many currently suppose. The share of global output accounted for by the China-bloc has increased s | Europe Politics |
October 2022. I was in a ruck by the gates of Downing Street during the final moments of the Liz Truss premiership. A member of the public behind me was screaming about the corrupt media and “the global conspiracy”. “Tell the truth!” he bellowed. What did he mean, I asked? Jews? “The globalists, yes – the Jews.”
Today, amid seething anti-Semitism, increasing Islamophobia and rising political tempers, politics takes place within a miasma of fake news and popular conspiracy theories. The fakery, misinformation and the bullshit go together: if you cannot be sure whether footage of somebody speaking to camera, or of a car burning, shows a real event or is an AI-generated fake, then it’s easier to turn your back on “facts” and embrace paranoid fantasy. If nothing is true, anything might be.
The subject of veracity, of no longer being able to tell fact from fiction, has taken on new urgency as Israel bombs Gaza in retaliation for Hamas’s barbaric act of terrorism on 7 October. The detailed arguments about blast patterns and missile sound signatures, over who was responsible for the explosion at al-Ahli hospital on 17 October, are only the most recent examples of how contested – even fraudulent – evidence connects to momentous political reaction. Most of those marching in London in support of Palestine on 21 October were no doubt there for humanitarian reasons or to express their outrage at the bombing of Gaza, and demand the end of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories. But some of those present believe there genuinely is a global conspiracy and that Israel is at the heart of it and must therefore be wiped out.
The compaction of grandly conspiratorial thinking and unreliable reporting did not start with recent events in Israel, of course. There is a bigger story here about Big Tech, AI, social media, increasing scepticism of all our public institutions, and how our politics is being radically transformed so that it might very soon become unrecognisable.
On 2 October Mark Harper, the Transport Secretary, in his speech to the Conservative conference in Manchester, gave oxygen to a conspiracy. He was “calling time”, he said, on the misuse of 15-minute cities: “What is sinister, and what we shouldn’t tolerate, is the idea that local councils can decide how often you go to the shops, and that they can ration who uses the roads and when, and that they police it all with CCTV.”
Harper was conflating local, low-traffic zones – Oxford’s scheme is the best-known example – with a theory that denying people the ability to move freely in their cars and confining them to small, urban areas is part of a global governmental plan to take away human liberty as Western democracies embrace net-zero politics.
Conspiracies about 15-minute cities are a marginal part of a great cloud of unknowing, or of unreason, that now surrounds and menaces our political culture. Conspiracy theories begin with a deliberate decision to turn away from mainstream politics and media. The original Cloud of Unknowing, probably written by a priest in the late 1300s in Nottinghamshire or Leicestershire, and a work of profound spirituality, recommends a surrender of ego and reason, what the priest calls “a privation of knowing”, in order to glimpse God.
Today, we have a privation of knowing, a Cloud of Unreason billowing through our politics. It is often described as “conspiracy theories” but it is more than that. It is a wholesale rejection of a plain-daylight grounding of facts that would ordinarily connect citizens and allow us to talk, in fact, politically.
Inside this dark cloud, it seems, world government is being stealthily created, machinating Jews are everywhere – some things haven’t changed since medieval times – controlling us through, er, town planning; and lies about global warming; and lockdowns; and vaccines manufactured by Chinese communist agents.
Those inside the Cloud of Unreason cannot see out. Those outside cannot see in. The division between it and the world of party-political conferences, medical experts, agreed facts about contested issues such as the pandemic, or wars in Ukraine or Gaza, or climate change, is absolute.
But how seriously should we take the views of conspiracists? One answer is to point to the QAnon conspiracy’s impact on the attempted putsch against the US Congress on 6 January 2021. That was real enough. But there are popular conspiracies nearer to home. The “great replacement theory”, for example, which takes its name from a 2011 book by the French writer Renaud Camus, proposes that elites are plotting to replace the ethnic white population of Europe with black and brown migrants.
Echoes of this thinking could be heard in Suella Braverman’s conference speech in Manchester on 3 October, when she said there was “a hurricane” of immigration coming because “the option of moving from a poorer country to a richer one is not just a dream for billions of people” but “an entirely realistic prospect”. The Home Secretary also criticised the “luxury beliefs” of the liberal elites who oppose her.
To whom was she speaking? According to a poll conducted in April by Savanta for King’s College London and the BBC, 32 per cent of British people agree with the great replacement theory. Expressions of militant Islamism on the streets of Britain during the Gaza crisis will not have tempered that.
Consider also the 15-minute city conspiracy theory. The original urban planning idea of suppressing car use to make densely inhabited cities more liveable for walkers and cyclists, with local shops and amenities, goes back to the French-Colombian urbanist Carlos Moreno, who coined the term “15-minute city” in 2015. In its pure form, the idea seems conservative, a return to the lost, near-at-hand world of traditional small towns.
But implementing the policy – or others like it – means big changes for millions of people, as we saw in the recent Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election. Local opposition to London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez), which levies a daily charge of £12.50 on drivers of more polluting cars, enabled the Conservatives to hold the seat.
Cars have become an emotional extension of the home for many, particularly for older people who can’t cycle or walk far or have limited access to public transport. For conspiracists, inside their cloud, this is an authoritarian grab for control. Earlier in the year the Tory MP Nick Fletcher told the Commons that the idea was an “international socialist” one that would “cost us our personal freedom”. That same Savanta poll found 33 per cent of people believe this.
[See also: Two cheers for the mainstream media]
Another conspiracy theory is the “great reset”. This starts with the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) characteristically fuzzy and grandiose 2020 proposal to realign the post-pandemic world economy with new technology and on more environmentally sustainable principles. There is plenty to criticise about the WEF and this corporatist blueprint. But for the conspiracists, it is nothing less than genocidal.
There is now a large section of political opinion that rejects almost everything conventional politics takes for granted. Shrewd MPs who listen to their constituents are reporting that the number who believe that politics has failed them and their communities is growing all the time. The Gaza crisis is likely to accelerate that. There is a growing gap between younger Britons, at greater risk of being exposed to unreliable information online and being radicalised by it, and the mainstream media.
The bigger question is why the Cloud of Unreason has started to envelop British politics – and why now?
One answer might lie in the mass transfer of industrial capacity – particularly in “green” technologies such as electric vehicles and solar panels – to China. This has not only gutted a generation of what would have been skilled workers across the US and Europe, but posed huge questions about the status and future power of Western countries at this phase of globalisation. Politicians’ promises to “onshore” manufacturing capacity and strengthen cybersecurity inside universities and technology companies against Chinese espionage have so far been empty and not convinced voters at all. They look at a world in which the West is losing its technological advantages for the first time in perhaps half a millennium. It is hardly surprising there is a mistrustful, fearful mood about.
It is worth noting that previous periods of British insecurity also led to a rise in irrational or extreme beliefs. The battering of the First World War produced a surge of interest in spiritualism, satirised by TS Eliot among others, and unorthodox political creeds such as the Kibbo Kift, or Greenshirts. The nuclear and space age brought mass evangelical crusades by preachers who claimed the “end times” were near, as well as widespread interest in extraterrestrial visitors – covered up, of course, by “the establishment”. Going much further back, the wars and revolutions of the 17th century spawned a huge range of extreme millenarian cults and anti-establishment conspiracies. History, which never repeats itself, repeats itself.
But another more specific reason for the contagion of conspiracist thinking in the 21st century may be the addictive power of the QAnon theory. QAnon began on clammy, pornographic message boards among isolated but passionate supporters of Donald Trump more than six years ago. It proposed the thrilling idea that secret intelligence figures in Washington were leaking coded information about the coming arrest of Hillary Clinton and her associates for treason and child sex exploitation. It quickly spread, rolling up anti-Semitic tropes. In its portrayal of Trump as a world-changing hero champion against a shadowy regiment of enemies, it owed something to distorted Christianity and much to the world of superhero movies.
QAnon led to the insurrectionary storming of Congress. But its paranoid thinking also went global, infecting the German imperial right-wing Reichsbürger movement, which was plotting a Reichstag coup late last year, and Dutch, Japanese, Brazilian and Australian society too. In his book on QAnon, The Storm is Upon Us, the American writer Mike Rothschild argues that a rebranding of the conspiracy, “#SaveTheChildren”, became particularly influential in the UK.
[See also: The man behind Humza Yousaf’s new strategy]
The dark cloud has been embraced in Britain, and not only on the right. What of Piers Corbyn, a leading denier of man-made climate change and an anti-vaxxer? What of the former TV historian and then GB News motor-mouth Neil Oliver, who has compared protests against Covid measures to the fight against Nazi Germany and who claims politicians are waging a “silent war” to take “total control of the people” and impose world government?
And what, indeed, of Russell Brand, the disgraced comedian who warned in a video message that negotiations for a world treaty on future pandemics meant that democracy would be “finished” and that, in the future, people would say that “we lapsed into a terrible technocratic, globalist agenda”?
We cannot pretend that the Cloud of Unreason isn’t part of modern Britain, or that it’s an import that can be controlled – still less that it can be safely ignored. So, how can we best start to think about it?
We should begin by acknowledging that this is only the beginning. In the years ahead you will be able to view – theoretically, at least, owing to advances in deep-fake technology, – convincing speeches by Keir Starmer calling for mass Muslim immigration. You will watch missiles arriving and causing slaughter in Leicester Square and Oldham, followed by frantic social media messages asking about the cover-up. Get ready for a world of garbage, in which you can believe almost nothing you see.
But this is not only about technology. Conspiracy theories, AI and a paranoid appetite for fake news offer the illusion of power – and of meaning. We are living through a period in world history in which Western populations have lost their heft and security. People are scared.
Mass migration is real. The rise of China is real. The corruption caused by malign internet actors is real. Unregulated tech platforms are real. Economic dislocation is real.
We are also living in post-editor, no-gatekeeper times. In the previous ups and downs of modern industrial life there has always been a class of people whose role was to calm the fever of busy, angry citizens; to check and contextualise shocking facts; and to curb exaggeration. These were the editors working in the mainstream media, but also the publishing executives, agents, producers and directors: the mediators, the intervening substance, the in-betweeners.
With the triumph of personalised “new media”, their power is much reduced and perhaps even vanishing. All that fine sieving and thoughtful grading, that pruning, assessing, comparing and checking, is losing out to instantaneous, no-consequences, unmediated self-publishing. Have the thought, express the thought. Hear a “fact”, seize it, hurl it on. The wilder, the more compelling, the better.
This can’t be ignored by mainstream politics. The conspiracists and trolls are burrowing hard into right- and left-wing politics and broadcasting, and many voters are with them. Research by New York University and Princeton suggested that people aged over 65 share seven times as many fake-news stories as those aged 18 to 29. And older people are, of course, likelier to vote.
This is going to require a new kind of political speaking – much more forthright and assertive in calling out exaggeration and untruth. We are going to have to lean more heavily on fact checkers, such as Bellingcat, an investigative organisation that specialises in open-source intelligence, and BBC News’s Verify. But this is also going to require political thinking that properly understands the fear voters have of losing their place in a fast-changing world, and offers them what security it can. So far, I don’t see politicians prepared to regulate the tide of fakery or condemn conspiracist nonsense for what it is. But the time for looking away has passed. The Cloud of Unknowing may one day block out our light.
[See also: Paranoia takes root in rural England]
This article appears in the 25 Oct 2023 issue of the New Statesman, Fog of War | United Kingdom Politics |
Any attempt to arrest Vladimir Putin when he visits South Africa would be a declaration of war against Russia, the country's president says.
Cyril Ramaphosa made the warning with weeks to go before an international meeting happens in Johannesburg, to which the Russian president is invited.
But if Mr Putin leaves Russian soil, he will be subject to an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant.
South Africa is an ICC signatory and should therefore help in his arrest.
Yet it has refused to honour that obligation in the past - allowing safe passage in 2015 to Sudan's then-President Omar al-Bashir who was wanted for war crimes against his own people.
Mr Putin has been invited to South Africa in August, when the country hosts a summit for members of the Brics countries - an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This bloc of fast-growing economies is seen by some as an alternative to the G7 group of advanced economies.
South Africa's biggest opposition party, Democratic Alliance, has gone to court to try to force the authorities to carry out an arrest on Mr Putin should he set foot in the country.
Court documents reveal that President Ramaphosa is firmly against any such move, stating that national security is at stake.
"South Africa has obvious problems with executing a request to arrest and surrender President Putin," he said in an affidavit.
"Russia has made it clear that arresting its sitting president would be a declaration of war. It would be inconsistent with our constitution to risk engaging in war with Russia."
President Ramaphosa added that South Africa is one of several African nations holding talks with Russia and Ukraine "with a view of ending the war altogether", and that attempting to arrest Mr Putin would be counter-productive.
Last month saw a peace mission to the European nations, where African presidents hoped they could bring Ukraine and Russia to the table together but ultimately failed.
Correspondents say the reasons range depending on the nation - be it South Africa's anti-apartheid ties to the Soviet Union, or Mali's present-day reliance on Russian Wagner mercenaries to fight jihadists.
There are economic ties between Russia and African nations too, not least in South Africa.
A sanctioned Russian oligarch, Viktor Vekselberg, is said to be one of the biggest donors to South Africa's governing party - the African National Congress (ANC). | Africa politics |
Xi’s Charm Offensive Falters After China Envoy Angers Europe
Xi Jinping had been on a winning streak of late, successfully rebuffing US attempts to portray China as a threat to the global order. Then an envoy in France instantly revived all those fears.
(Bloomberg) -- Xi Jinping had been on a winning streak of late, successfully rebuffing US attempts to portray China as a threat to the global order. Then an envoy in France instantly revived all those fears.
China has moved swiftly to extinguish a firestorm in Europe caused by Ambassador Lu Shaye, who questioned the independence of ex-Soviet states during an interview with a local broadcaster.
In a statement Monday night, the Chinese embassy in Paris said that Lu gave an “an expression of personal points of view” that shouldn’t be “over-interpreted.” It explicitly reaffirmed respect for the sovereignty of ex-Soviet states, adding that its position is “consistent and clear.”
Still, the damage was done. The remarks effectively echoed Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s view of Ukraine and other countries that once formed the Soviet Union, undermining Xi’s efforts to portray China as a neutral party to help end the war that began in February 2022.
Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis cited Lu’s comments in a tweet to explain “why the Baltic states don’t trust China to ‘broker peace in Ukraine.’” Estonia and Latvia — nations that also suffered for decades under the harsh rule of the Soviet Union — summoned Chinese diplomats in their capitals to explain.
“Lu’s remarks and the strong reactions they sparked across Europe are a bit of an own goal,” said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“The incident is revealing of the tensions in” Chinese foreign policy, said Chong. “They want to present an image of being both open and forceful.”
The incident has added to recent investor concern over geopolitical risks given that Chinese stock traders have already been worried about China-US ties. The MSCI China Index lost as much as 2% on Tuesday, heading for a sixth day of declines, which would be the longest since October.
The market is facing “a raft of negative geopolitical noises,” including Lu’s comments and President Joe Biden’s apparent plans for an executive order restricting American investments in some areas of China’s economy, said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee.
See: Xi Launches Charm Offensive to Repair China’s Tattered Image
For Xi, Lu’s errant remarks appeared to mark yet another setback as he looks to revamp China’s image on the global stage after three years of isolation due to the outbreak of Covid-19.
In March, shortly after Xi unveiled a vague blueprint for peace in Ukraine and met with Putin in Moscow, his government brokered a deal for Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties. That lent credibility to Beijing’s role as a potential mediator in conflicts far beyond its shores.
Then Xi hosted the leaders of France and Brazil, both of whom made comments that upset the US. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for closer economic ties with China and a diminished role of the dollar in trade, while French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe must forge its own path independent of the US.
Also: Why China’s Diplomats Snarl at ‘Wolf Warrior’ Label: QuickTake
Following Lu’s comments, Macron reiterated his solidarity with the countries in question, and the European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called the comments “unacceptable.”
The episode in part shows China’s struggle to balance more assertive diplomacy with the need to project soft power, particularly as the nation’s reputation has fallen. A Pew Research Center poll last year found four-fifths of respondents in the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Sweden had unfavorable opinions of China.
While China has appeared to recognize the problem, and sought to play nicer of late, outbursts from diplomats still occur fairly regularly. Lu has created controversy in the past, accusing Canada of “white supremacy” during the saga over the detention of a Huawei Technologies Co. executive.
At the same time, the episode is unlikely to hurt China more broadly among the so-called Global South, a broad term referring to developing nations across parts of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
Last year, China kicked off a conversation about BRICS expansion when it was chair of the bloc, part of a wider effort to present an alternative to US leadership. Since then, 19 countries expressed an interest in joining just before the bloc holds an annual summit in South Africa in June, said Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to BRICS.
The incident may also blow over quickly in some smaller nations in Europe, said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
“Many European leaders are likely to accept Beijing’s walk-back of Ambassador Lu’s comments and continue to pursue their economic and diplomatic interests with China, especially those of smaller and poorer EU nations that especially value commercial exchanges with the country,” he said.
More: Brazil’s Lula Seeks Even Closer Ties With China in Slap to US
Apart from the embassy statement distancing China from Lu’s comments, the reaction in Beijing has also been to take shots at the press. In a regular briefing on Monday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning blamed the media for trying to “sow discord between China and the countries concerned.”
Lu’s remark also played well among social media users, some of whom linked the issue to Taiwan. China has recently made the argument that taking Taiwan wouldn’t violate international law because the island isn’t recognized as a country.
“If you have enough power, you can write international law,” one Chinese social media user wrote on a post about Lu’s comments. “Haven’t Western politicians been spewing enough nonsense about Taiwan?”
--With assistance from Jing Li, Colum Murphy and Shikhar Balwani.
(Updates with China stocks retreating.)
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | Europe Politics |
Pedestrians uses a portable fan on the street during a heatwave in Tokyo, Japan, June 27, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comTOKYO, June 28 (Reuters) - Japan baked under scorching temperatures for a fourth successive day on Tuesday, as the capital's heat broke nearly 150-year-old records for June and authorities warned power supply remained tight enough to raise the spectre of cuts.The heatwave comes less than two weeks before a national election in which prices, including the cost of electricity, are among key issues picked by voters in opinion polls that show the government's approval rating slipping - with politicians including Tokyo's governor urging power price cuts.Temperatures in the capital hit 35.1 C by 1 p.m local time on Tuesday (0400 GMT), after three successive days of temperatures topping 35 C - the worst streak of hot weather in June since records began in 1875. And the heatwave isn't about to break: the Japan Meteorological Agency forecast highs of 36 C for Tokyo on Thursday and 35 C on Friday.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comWith heatstroke alerts issued in some areas of the country for Tuesday, cases of hospitalisation rose early in the day. Many in the capital and elsewhere continue to flout government advice to reduce heatstroke risks by not wearing face masks outdoors - a legacy of more than two years of widespread mask wearing in public settings during the COVID-19 pandemic.For a second day, authorities asked consumers in the Tokyo area to conserve electricity to avoid a looming power cut.As of 9 a.m. local time, 13 people had been taken to hospital in the capital with suspected heatstroke, Fuji News Network said. At least two people are believed to have died from heatstroke, media said, prompting authorities to moderate their calls for power saving."Apparently there are some elderly people who have turned off their air conditioners because we are asking people to save energy, but please - it's this hot - don't hesitate about cooling off," trade and industry minister Koichi Hagiuda told a news conference.The reserve ratio for Tokyo during the evening (1630-1700) on Tuesday was expected to fall below 5% as of Monday evening, close to the minimum of 3% that ensures stable supply, in Tokyo and eight surrounding prefectures. Reserve capacity below 3% risks power shortages and blackouts.On Tuesday, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said predictions had improved slightly, but still called for consumers to be economical with power use.Monday's warning prompted government offices, including METI, to turn off some lights in the afternoon and evening, with METI halting use of 25% of elevators in its building.Electronics stores took similar steps, shutting off televisions and other goods on sales floors that would normally be kept on to lure buyers, and some Tokyo residents said on social media they were turning off all appliances not in use.But politicians began to call for further steps.Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike attended a meeting of Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) (9501.T) shareholders on Tuesday, later saying she had called for price cuts, Fuji News Network reported. TEPCO provides power to the greater Tokyo region.Though expected to do well in the July 10 election for the upper house of parliament, Kishida's ruling party faces headwinds from rising prices, worsened by a slide in the value of the yen that makes imports more costly.The Kishida cabinet's approval came to 50% in a voter survey conducted by public broadcaster NHK on June 24-26, down from 55% last week.Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of the junior partner in Kishida's coalition government, warned on Monday in a campaign speech that citizens were risking heatstroke by trying to economise on power."What I would really like is for the government to tell power companies to lower costs," he was quoted by Kyodo news agency as saying."I'd like to contact the prime minister, who's currently visiting Europe," he added - a reference to Kishida's attendance at the G7 summit, meaning the premier is out of the country during an election campaign period, a significant departure from usual practice.Economically, the heat could be a double-edged sword, said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute."Scorching heat is said to boost private consumption during summertime through higher sales of beverages and home appliances ... but excessive heat can curb consumption," he added, noting that people stay indoors and vegetable prices rise.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAdditional reporting by Sakura Murakami, Kantaro Komiya and Yuka Obayashi; Writing by Elaine Lies; Editing by Kenneth MaxwellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Asia Politics |
Ukraine's capital has been attacked for the first time in three weeks by Russian missile strikes - as G7 leaders gathered in Germany with the invasion high on the agenda.A nine-storey apartment block was struck along with the compound of a kindergarten as officials said one person was killed and five others injured in the attacks.
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said four people were taken to hospital and a seven-year-old girl was pulled alive from the rubble.He claimed the airstrikes may have been a "symbolic attack" by Moscow ahead of this week's NATO summit in Madrid.Kyiv comes under attack again - see Ukraine war updates Image: Smoke rises over a residential building damaged by a Russian missile strike in Kyiv Andriy Yermak, head of the president's administration, said: "The Russians hit Kyiv again. Missiles damaged an apartment building and a kindergarten."
The residential block was left smouldering with a crater in its roof as firefighters put out a blaze there, and debris was strewn over parked cars outside in the central Shevchenkivskiy district. More on Russia Ukraine war: Severodonetsk now under Russian control following weeks-long battle Ukraine war: Several Russian generals removed by Kremlin over course of conflict - UK defence intelligence says NATO set to agree biggest overhaul of defences since the Cold War - including expansion of 40,000-strong response force At another site 400 metres away, there was a large blast crater by a playground in a private kindergarten with smashed windows. Storage garages in the area were completely destroyed.Referring to the Russian strikes, US President Joe Biden said "it's more of their barbarism", as he and fellow leaders from seven of the world's advanced economies attended a summit in Bavaria. Image: A crater is seen at a compound of a kindergarten after a Russian missile strike in Kyiv Boris Johnson said the West needed to maintain a united front against Russian President Vladimir Putin."The price of backing down, the price of allowing Putin to succeed, to hack off huge parts of Ukraine, to continue with his programme of conquest, that price will be far, far higher," the prime minister told reporters. People living in constant fear in Kyiv, knowing their fragile sense of normality can be shattered "This is my life," says Larysa Liaskovska as she shows us the blown out windows in her apartment. Living in constant fear, she describes her terror as cruise missiles hit her neighbourhood early this morning. Around 6.30am I heard at least three loud bangs from our hotel in the centre of the city. We drove west towards the scene and followed the smoke rising into the air. We didn't have to travel far. Around two minutes drive from the heart of the city, we saw a destroyed apartment block. A woman is being ushered away crying by the police. Another is rushed into an ambulance on a stretcher. Tired firefighters are covered in soot and some appear burned. Debris crashes from the building as rescuers search for residents in the rubble of their apartments. The first information we receive is from a senior adviser to the Ministry of Internal Affairs who arrives at the scene. Anton Geraschenko is holding the passport of a Russian woman he says has been taken to hospital. "Russia is targeting their own people," he tells us. Mr Geraschenko says the woman's husband has died and their young daughter has been taken to hospital. We haven't been able to independently confirm this. Nearby, a missile has also hit a kindergarten playground. A crater smoulders next to a slide and children's chairs. The shattered windows framed by colourful murals. The contrast is horrible. Mercifully, it's a Sunday and no children were there. The sites of both explosions are close to a warehouse that it's believed is being used as a weapons depot. This military target has made the area particularly vulnerable. It's not the first time civilians have been hit here. A burnt-out apartment block next door to the one that was destroyed this morning was bombed in April when the UN Secretary General was visiting Kyiv. It's perhaps no coincidence this latest attack comes as G7 leaders gather in Germany. A rhythm of daily life has resumed in Kyiv in recent weeks. People are back at work, back in their homes, taking walks in parks. But there's an anxiety beneath the humdrum of the city. People live with the constant fear of an attack, knowing their fragile sense of normality can be shattered in an instant. Up to four explosions were heard in the centre of Kyiv. Two more were reported in the southern outskirts of the city but there was no immediate sign of damage, suggesting missiles could have been shot down by Ukraine's air defences.Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko wrote on the Telegram messaging app that "according to prelim data, 14 missiles were launched against Kyiv region and Kyiv".Air force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said the missiles were Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles fired from planes over the Caspian Sea.The last time the capital was hit by Russian airstrikes was 5 June.Explosions have also been heard in the central city of Cherkasy, former regional governor Oleksandr Skichko said on Telegram. He did not give further details.Cherkasy has been largely untouched by bombardment since Russia invaded the country in February in what Mr Putin called a special military operation to ensure Russian security and denazify Ukraine.Russia's defence ministry said it had used high-precision weapons to hit Ukrainian army training centres in the regions of Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Lviv - an apparent reference to strikes reported by Ukraine on Saturday.Read more:Severodonetsk now under Russian control following weeks-long battleSeveral Russian generals removed by Kremlin - UK defence intelligence80% of troops in elite Ukrainian military unit killed or injured, says commander Image: The leaders of the G7 group at Bavaria's Schloss Elmau Castle, near Garmis Meanwhile, Russian forces have been seeking to take the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the eastern Luhansk region.They have already claimed full control of Severodonetsk and the chemical plant where hundreds of Ukrainian troops and civilians had been holed up.Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region that includes Severodonetsk, said Russia was carrying out intense airstrikes on the neighbouring city of Lysychansk, destroying its television tower and seriously damaging a road bridge."There's very much destruction - Lysychansk is almost unrecognisable," he wrote on Facebook. | Europe Politics |
Power-sharing is "essential" for securing Northern Ireland's future within the UK, the DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has said.
Party members gathered in Belfast to hear him address their annual conference.
The DUP walked out of Northern Ireland's power-sharing government 18 months ago in protest at post-Brexit trade rules.
However, Sir Jeffrey said he still believes in devolved government.
"Having no say in our future will not be a recipe for success," he told delegates.
"If we want to make the positive case for the union, then having local institutions that succeed in delivering for everyone in Northern Ireland is an essential element in building our case."
The party withdrew Paul Givan as first minister in February last year in protest over the Northern Ireland Protocol, which triggered the collapse of power-sharing government.
Earlier this year, the UK and EU agreed changes to the protocol, as part of a deal known as the Windsor Framework.
It reduces the level of checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
The DUP has since said the framework is not sufficiently different from the protocol and continues to undermine Northern Ireland's place in the UK.
It has been involved in talks with Number 10 for several months in a bid to reach an accommodation, with NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris recently saying he believes those negotiations are in their "final stages".
Leader opposed to direct rule
Sir Jeffrey updated members on his negotiations with the government over changes they want to see to the Windsor Framework.
"Today I can report that we are making progress, but there remains more work to do.
"I am hopeful that remaining concerns can be addressed as quickly as possible."
And he sent a message to those who would argue that direct rule from London is a "better option".
"Time and again, Westminster has imposed laws upon us that are not in tune with the needs or wishes of the people of Northern Ireland," he said.
"You cannot on the one hand repeatedly condemn successive governments for letting us down and then argue with credibility that we are better off ruled directly by those who do not really understand what makes this place tick."
Sir Jeffrey also said the DUP's plan had "confronted the realities and exposed the flaws" of the protocol, and that any new arrangements must command the support of unionists and nationalists.
"The rights of unionists cannot be diminished, sidelined or treated in a way that is less important than nationalists," he added.
The DUP has faced criticism from other political parties for blocking the formation of an executive and assembly.
But the party's stance has remained unchanged, instead negotiating with the UK government with the aim of securing more legislative changes that it says would protect Northern Ireland's place within the UK internal market.
Analysis: 'Soft clues about the party's direction'
This was never going to be a speech that laid out any sort of timeline for a DUP decision.
It was very much a holding statement intended to cover all bases.
But if you listened carefully there were soft clues about where the party leader seems to want the DUP to go.
It was no coincidence that there was a reference to the St Andrews Agreement - signed 17 years ago this weekend - that first brought the DUP into power-sharing government with Sinn Féin.
And Sir Jeffrey followed it up by spelling out to those in his party that it's direct rule which will do the most damage to the unionist cause.
But don't read it as done that the DUP could yet return to devolved government - laying the groundwork is just one of the many hurdles Sir Jeffrey will have to pass if he wants his party to back an eventual offer.
Sir Jeffrey, who is the MP for Lagan Valley, became leader in June 2021.
Earlier this year he hit out at some within his own ranks for briefing against the party, saying it damages unionism's electoral prospects.
He told the conference that: "With leadership comes responsibility, and with that responsibility comes days when the challenges will be greater than others.
"We must collectively step up our efforts in promoting the union.
"Those who believe that a united Ireland is around the corner, that it is inevitable, and that Northern Ireland within the union will cease to exist are entirely wrong." | United Kingdom Politics |
The UK is expected to re-join the EU's flagship research scheme, Horizon, with an announcement likely soon.
Talks on the UK becoming a fully-fledged member of the EU's â¬100bn (£85bn) programme again began after a deal was cut on post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland earlier this year.
According to sources in Brussels, there has been movement in EU-UK talks.
But there is no official confirmation of a finalized deal from either side.
The UK's associate membership of Horizon was agreed in principle as part of the Brexit Trade and Co-operation Agreement, but the issue became bogged down in the dispute about the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The higher education sector is likely to give the news, first reported by Bloomberg, a big welcome.
Universities and researchers have repeatedly warned that the uncertainty over whether the UK would re-join was extremely damaging.
Ministers had drawn up a plan B, known as Pioneer, as an alternative.
The government always insisted it was deadly serious about the possibility of going it alone with the Pioneer programme, although it wasn't their preferred option.
Figures within government have previously suggested that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was genuinely torn.
On the one hand, re-joining Horizon would help repair EU-UK relations and potentially play well with those who deeply disliked Brexit.
On the other hand, Mr Sunak was said to be keen to get "value for money" as well as build credibility with Leave supporters who might favour a clean break.
The UK had been expected to remain associated with the scheme after Brexit but it soon became apparent that Brussels was blocking Britain's return.
That's because the EU was angry at the government's failure to fully implement a deal on post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland.
Until that issue was resolved, it was clear that Horizon association would not be possible.
Then, in February, Rishi Sunak signed a deal with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen - the Windsor Framework.
That paved the way for talks on Horizon, which look as though they're finally reaching their culmination.
It's a further moment of reconciliation between the UK and the EU following the bitter disputes over Brexit that followed the 2016 Leave vote. | United Kingdom Politics |
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is listed among passengers on board a plane that crashed north of Moscow, according to Russian state media.
Some 541 children have been killed in Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, British charity Save the Children said in a report on Wednesday, with this June being the deadliest month recorded.
As air and drone attacks tripled this summer, the international charity recorded a 16% increase in child casualties between May and August, compared to the previous four months. The agency said 95% of those attacks took place in populated areas, prompting an increase in overall civilian fatalities, citing UN verified data.
Since May 2023, the charity said 148 children have been killed or injured. June was the deadliest month for children so far when 11 children were killed and 43 more were injured.
“Since last February, more than 1,680 children have been killed or injured due to unrelenting hostilities. The vast majority of those casualties are attributed to missiles and drones being fired at residential areas,” Amjad Yamin, Save the Children’s Advocacy Director in Ukraine, said in a statement.
“This serves as a grim reminder that explosive weapons should not be used anywhere near populated areas, such as towns and villages,” he added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is hosting leaders from Portugal, Lithuania and Finland in Kyiv this week after returning from his own tour of European nations.
This is the first time Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has visited the Ukrainian capital as he was only sworn in two months ago. During the trip, Orpo said that Finland’s “strong and unwavering support to Ukraine” is set to continue, according to a government press release.
Finland has supplied Kyiv with 1.7 billion euros ($1.8 billion) worth of aid, 1.2 billion of which were in defense packages, the Finnish statement added.
During a joint news conference, Orpo told journalists that Finland is making the final preparations for its 18th defense aid package for Ukraine, adding that further details will be announced later this week.
Zelensky publicly thanked Finland for the “17 defense assistance packages already provided,” adding that the two leaders discussed Ukraine’s “priorities” for the next package.
Orpo also sent a strong message of support for Ukraine’s bids to join both the NATO military alliance and the European Union stressing that “Ukraine belongs in the West – in the European Union and NATO.”
One engagement included a meeting on Wednesday with Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nausėda, a long-time supporter of Ukraine to discuss the Ukrainian counter offensive.
In a post on his official Telegram channel, Zelensky said the pair discussed the “current situation on the battlefield and the urgent needs of Ukrainian defenders” alongside ways to shore up food security for Ukraine.
Nausėda said in a post on “X,” formerly known as Twitter, that he used the trip as an opportunity to reiterate Lithuania’s commitment to “supporting Ukraine until victory.” To show this sustained support, the Baltic state will deliver NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine next month, according to Nausėda.
Portugal’s head of state, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, also arrived in Kyiv for a two-day visit on Wednesday, timed around celebrations marking Ukrainian Independence Day on Thursday.
De Sousa traveled alongside the Portuguese foreign minister, João Gomes Cravinho, to Kyiv and is set to meet Zelensky on Thursday, according to CNN affiliate, CNN Portugal.
The Portuguese leader visited the Kyiv suburb of Bucha on Wednesday, spending time at the Church of St. Andrew, where a mass grave was discovered in April 2022 after Russian forces withdrew from the area.
"What happened [here] was very intense, very shocking, very inhumane and inhuman, and that's precisely why we are searching for the appropriate means for the trial and punishment," the Portuguese president said.
The elite Alpha sniper unit of the Ukrainian security services, the SBU, granted CNN rare access to their team and details of their operations. The rough equivalent of the US Delta Force, the Alpha unit is used to strike high-value Russian targets, using often thermal scopes to hit Russian trench systems in the black of night.
One sniper called the tactic “sniper terror,” explaining: “That’s when we hit every target we spot. It demoralizes them and kills their will to do anything against us.”
The snipers met CNN at a location they requested not be disclosed, and asked not to be named. During their sight adjustment on a practice range, the suppressor flew clean off a Western-donated Barrett M82 sniper rifle mid-shot. The snipers said it had been used so much that its fastenings had come loose.
The unit’s commander described a mission five weeks ago where they mistakenly ran into their rough Russian equivalent – a recon assault group. The unit had entered into a treeline and stumbled into the Russian group. “We opened fire, our guide was wounded,” he said. “We suppressed them, pulled him out, called in artillery and then watched them fall back with their wounded.”
They released to CNN a series of videos from their thermal scopes, showing multiple kills in the Robotine and Bakhmut areas.
A third sniper is a living symbol of how close it can get. His upper lip folds slightly inward – the work of an artillery shell explosion that hit his leg, chest and head. “It was unpleasant,” he said. “But I had 16 operations to rebuild my bones and teeth, and I got back to the fight.”
Not everyone he knows has been so lucky. “I have lost many friends – the best ones leave us first,” he said.
Among these hardened fighters, there is an acceptance that this might be a multi-year war, impacting generations.
The third sniper said: “My son is growing up, he is little but he already trains, knows who is the enemy and that is Russia.”
Watch the team's report below:
Two teachers were killed and four people were injured when a Shahed drone hit a school in Romny, in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine, local authorities said Wednesday.
The attack - which destroyed the building - took place around 10 a.m. (3 a.m. ET), the Sumy region military administration said in a statement.
The bodies of at least two more of the school employees are believed to be under the rubble, Ukrainian police said.
“Rescuers and medics continue to work at the scene, and an emergency response headquarters has been deployed. A search and rescue operation is underway,” police added.
A Russian attack on the port of Izmail on the Danube River overnight destroyed 13,000 tons of grain meant for export, according to the Ukrainian Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development.
The grain was destined to go to Egypt and Romania, Oleksandr Kubrakov said.
Private grain terminals, warehouses and cargo infrastructure were also damaged as a result of the attack by Shahed drones, Kubrakov added.
The export capacity of the port was reduced by 15%, he said, accusing Russia of systematically working to stop Ukrainian agricultural exports.
“In total, 270,000 tons of grain have been destroyed in a month of attacks on ports,” said Kubrakov.
Last month, Russia withdrew from a deal that allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported through the Black Sea.
On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was “hypocritically blamed” for the current crisis in world markets, adding that his country “remains and will be a reliable food supplier to Africa.”
A top Russian general, Sergey Surovikin, has been relieved of his duties as head of the country's aerospace amid mounting speculation as to his whereabouts.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian drone attack has left three dead in Russia's Belgorod region, and Kyiv's forces say they destroyed a Russian air defense missile system in occupied Crimea.
Here are the latest headlines:
- Prominent Russian general dismissed: Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the former leader of Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine, has been removed from his position as the head of Russia's aerospace forces. Surovikin has not been seen in public since the short-lived mutiny led by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in June, fueling unconfirmed rumors of his detention.
- Three dead in Ukrainian drone attack: Three people were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia's Belgorod region on Wednesday. Separately, the Russian Ministry of Defense said it had intercepted and destroyed a drone over the region on Wednesday morning.
- Ukraine claims hit on Russian air defenses: The Ukrainian military said that it had destroyed a Russian S-400 missile system in Russian-occupied Crimea on Wednesday. The explosion “completely destroyed” the long- and medium-range S-400 Triumph missile system, as well as its missiles and personnel, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence.
- Russia hits kindergarten: Six people were injured after Russian forces dropped guided bombs on a kindergarten and residential buildings in Ukraine's southern Kherson city, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday.
- Moscow hits port infrastructure in Odesa region: Russia launched a drone attack on a grain storage and cargo vessel shipping facility near the Danube River in southern Ukraine on Wednesday. No casualties were reported.
- Flights resume in Moscow after attempted drone attack: Airports in the Moscow region are operating normally after flights were temporarily restricted Wednesday. Earlier, Russia's defense ministry said it had thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Lithuanian president visits Kyiv: President Gitanas Nausėda is visiting Ukraine ahead of the country's Independence Day celebrations on Thursday, and shared a photo of himself arriving in Kyiv by train. Lithuania has been a strong supporter of Ukraine since the start of the war and has pushed for a robust response to counter Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in order to end a war “unleashed by the West.”
"Our actions in Ukraine are solely aimed at ending the war unleashed by the Western nations and their allies in Ukraine against people living in Donbas,” Putin said in a video address at a summit of the BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa -- on Wednesday.
“We are thankful to our BRICS colleagues who are actively engaged in seeking a peaceful resolution to this situation," he added.
In his speech, Putin also called upon BRICS member states, an economic group of major emerging economies, to increase their use of local currencies for international transactions.
Putin, who could not join the Johannesburg summit in person due to an international arrest warrant for his brutal invasion of Ukraine, added that the next BRICS summit may be held in the Russian city of Kazan in October 2024, but specific dates have yet to be determined through diplomatic channels.
The Ukrainian military said that it had destroyed a Russian S-400 missile system in Russian-occupied Crimea on Wednesday.
Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, an arm of the Ministry of Defense, said the attack took place at 10 a.m. (3 a.m. ET) near the village of Olenivka on Cape Tarkhankut.
CNN geolocated a video of the explosion released by Defense Intelligence to the same area in Crimea.
The explosion “completely destroyed” the long- and medium-range S-400 Triumph missile system, as well as its missiles and personnel, Defense Intelligence said.
“Given the limited number of such systems in the enemy's arsenal, this is a painful blow to the occupiers' air defense system, which will have a serious impact on further events in the occupied Crimea,” it added. | Europe Politics |
Tory MPs should get over their “excess of doom and gloom” about their electoral prospects and “get behind” Rishi Sunak, a cabinet minister has said, with a veiled warning to colleagues jostling for position not to be “self-indulgent”.
The international development minister, Andrew Mitchell, suggested on Sunday that rival groups of Conservative MPs, who have been proposing an array of policy ideas at the party conference in Manchester, should be more disciplined before the election.
He said he struggled to believe that ministerial colleagues were on manoeuvres after Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch were accused of trying to raise their prospects for a post-Sunak future – but said that it would be a “mistake” if they were.
“All this stuff about … people sort of preening themselves on stage, showing off their colourful feathers, I don’t think it’s happening. As you’re about to go into battle you don’t start arguing the toss with the commanding officer,” he said.
“You get on with preparing to win that battle. I don’t think that the Tory party in the country or in parliament would tolerate that sort of self-indulgence at a time we need for our country and our party to win the next election.”
Mitchell, who first became an MP in 1987 and was chief whip under David Cameron, defended the “healthy debate” over policy, with MPs split on a range of issues including tax, culture wars and the UK’s relationship with Europe, but added that it was time to get in line.
“In the end there has to be an esprit de corps in the party which says we are going into battle, we don’t argue with the commander in chief. We get behind them and we win that battle,” he said.
He suggested that after 13 years in power the Tories may have forgotten what it feels like to be in opposition. “Maybe, but I don’t think we should allow ourselves to be reminded,” he said.
As Tory MPs ramp up the pressure on Sunak to cut taxes before the next election, Mitchell said that he made “no apology” for the overall tax burden going up this parliament “given the headwinds which we had to face” with the pandemic and Ukraine war.
He said the government should be “very clear” that it was the Conservatives’ instinct to cut taxes, but warned against raising the money to do this by cutting benefits.
“We need to be very clear that we have very properly protected throughout the last 13 years the most vulnerable by maintaining and in some cases increasing the value of their benefits. That’s the right thing for any government to do in any civilised society.”
Mitchell, who has fought 10 general elections, said he was confident the Tories could still win the next election “if we do the right thing”. But he added: “Of course it is difficult to win five elections in a row in a cricket-playing country that believes in letting the other team have a go.”
Asked about Tory dividing lines before the election, the minister said he was “not very woke” himself, adding: “I think politeness and understanding are the watchwords in this and not pillorying people who hold honest opinion.”
Before he joined Sunak’s government, Mitchell had described the government’s Rwanda policy as immoral, impractical and expensive. He said the plan was “not the whole answer” to fixing the asylum system and he had opposed it principally on cost grounds, although the government has refused to give a total bill.
Safe legal routes to the UK – which Sunak has said will follow once small boats crossings are under control – more staff to process asylum claims, and improving what had been an “appalling” relationship with the French were also all important.
“I’m not sure that Boris’s humour went down as well with the French as it did in some quarters of the UK. And clearly, if you are prime minister, you have got to have a really good relationship with your nearest neighbour,” he said.
Despite about a third of the aid budget last year being spent on housing refugees – meaning £1bn less for causes overseas – Mitchell said it would be a “mistake” to change international rules to prevent that because other countries may do the same. “If we open that Pandora’s box you might never get it shut again.”
Instead, he said he was working with the Treasury to get better value for money on development spending and raising funds through other mechanisms to fund projects, including an imminent announcement about a new malaria vaccine developed in the UK.
Although he had led the Tory rebellion against the foreign aid budget being cut from 0.7% of national income to 0.5%, he said that now he was a minister it was his job to “make the whole thing work as best as it possibly can” and that he accepted the constraints.
He had also opposed the development department being merged with the Foreign Office. “It is true that I had described the merger in lurid terms but that’s not where we are today,” he said. “My job is to make the new structure work. I’m doing my level best.”
Mitchell delicately rejected Suella Braverman’s call to modernise international human rights laws, which earned her a rebuke from the UN refugee agency last week.
“It was created at an entirely different time. But it’s difficult because you have to get the lid back on the Pandora’s box if you open it, because every country will want something different. I’m not saying it’s not a very noble idea to try to reform it, but it will take a long time and it is very difficult,” he said. | United Kingdom Politics |
Discover more from This week in Brexitland
This week in Brexitland, November 2, 2023
There are two logical paths for Britain to take from here. Unfortunately, neither are politically possible
As a country, Britain is stuck. Brexit was advertised as the way out of this rut back in 2016; even the most ardent Brexit supporter would have to admit that this hasn’t happened. I think I’ve concluded why we’re marooned in a less than ideal place - but not how we manage to get free, which unfortunately, as I will explain, is a next to impossible task given the current state of British politics.
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I believe there are two clear paths the country could embark upon from here. Well, there’s actually three including “let just keep muddling along”, which is almost certainly the path we’re going to be taking. But there are two basic shapes of direction we could go in if we genuinely wanted to escape from the place we’re in right now and give the country a path to something different.
The first is to pursue a pro-growth agenda wholeheartedly. This would be where we decide to build, build, build, expand, expand, expand - not just housebuilding but infrastructure construction as well, all done on an industrial and unprecedented scale (for Britain, at least). New towns, even new cities. We expand the economy as much as we practically can do.
This has elements that please the right and in fact, they are the ones who most explicitly talk about growth as being a positive (Liz Truss might have mentioned it once or twice). The problem is that the right in Britain are completely unable to accept the parts of going for broke on growth that would entail things that they really don’t like, including several things they never shut up about being adamantly against.
Building a lot of new things would require many skills that are in short supply in this country and beyond that, a lot of people we don’t currently have to do all kinds of work. This means immigration. It almost certainly means a lot of immigration, at least short term wise. I don’t see a way around this - people from places other than Britain would be required given the scale and ambition of the project. And yet, the right is pretty much united in being anti-immigration, one of the few things they all agree on, even though they supposedly all want growth as well. It would also require building a lot of infrastructure, like say, a high speed rail that zips across the country. And the right have united in killing that project off as well.
On the other hand, large parts of the left actively don’t want growth, a lot of times for supposed ecological reasons. And yet they want immigration to increase, even though that only makes sense if we’re growing the economy to accommodate the growth in population.
Now, before I get to the second logical path to choose for the country, I want to lay down my cards and say that the growth path is the one I distinctly favour. I like growth, I like high speed rail and I like immigration. So, there are no paradoxes here for me to internally resolve.
The second logical path to go down for Britain is a zero growth strategy. We accept that what we favour as a nation is containment and certainty, with economic growth be damned. We accept that Britain is what it is now, a large European economy that is in relative decline and whose importance will fade as the next few decades go by - and that we are perfectly fine with that. We care about Britain being a green and pleasant land more than anything else.
This path would require limiting immigration as much as possible. After a while this should become straightforward: people will eventually stop coming to Britain, as the job opportunities become non-existent. There is no point in being an economic migrant to a country whose economy is imploding. Taking this path, people in the UK will be poorer over all, but there will almost certainly be a lot more cultural homogeneity (as in, England will feel more English, whatever that might mean in practice). The streets should get cleaner. Public policy easier to manage as the choices narrow.
Many on the right weirdly gravitate towards this vision emotionally but not when it is spelled out what it actually entails since it is basically their most hated word made flesh: socialism. That’s what we’d become under this second path, a socialist country. Socialism in one country, if you will.
Socialism is the best form of government if you want to stop immigration. This isn’t just theory either - the socialist governments of the 20th century did most things badly, but they did do stopping people from coming into their countries (or leaving them, to be fair) extremely well. It’s easy to accomplish if you’re not running a liberal democracy.
I don’t like Path Two at all. I don’t like the jingoism and flat out racism that I believe lies at the heart of it. As I say, I don’t like socialism either. But at least explicitly going down this path has an innate logic to it; it is a direction, however much it’s not my cup of tea.
Spoiler alert: we’re not going to take either path any time soon because no one is interested in resolving the political paradoxes that lie within each of them. Liz Truss’ premiership imploded in less than two months because she went charging ahead on Path One without bothering to come to terms with the things she’d have had to embrace to make it work. If a government tried either of the paths I outlined above without resolving the issues as described, they would implode just as quickly.
Bringing this all back to Brexit for a moment: what’s so funny is that we could have done Path One while still being in the EU, but there’s no way we could have done Path Two whilst remaining a member. We couldn’t have limited immigration, just for a start, and EU competition laws would have crushed our ability to run the economy in a purely socialist fashion. As a passionate Remainer, I’ve always disagreed with Brexiters of all stripes, but at least the left-wing ones like Mick Lynch are logical in their reasons for having wanted to leave the EU. The right-wing Brexiters are the ones getting constantly slapped with their own contradictions.
In conclusion, whatever government comes next, either Starmer (as seems likely) or another round of zombie government under Rishi Sunak, we will take Path Three, ie muddling along as best we can, not making any sudden movements. The other two paths are too difficult and require too much forward thinking, breaking out of moulds and being happy to borrow things from both left and right at the same time. And sadly, we won’t even have membership of the European single market to cushion the blow.
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Modi, Xi Seen Having Brief Exchanges In Johannesburg
Video footage aired by a South African broadcaster showed Modi and Xi having a brief exchange.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping were on Thursday seen having brief exchanges ahead of a media briefing by the BRICS leaders in Johannesburg.
Modi and Xi are in the South African city of Johannesburg to attend the annual summit of BRICS.
Video footage aired by a South African broadcaster showed Modi and Xi having a brief exchange.
There was no official comment on the exchange by either side.
Ahead of the start of the BRICS summit, there was speculation about the possibility of a bilateral meeting between Modi and Xi in Johannesburg.
Modi is travelling to Greece on Thursday evening after concluding his engagements in the South African city.
The prime minister and the Chinese president had a brief encounter at a dinner during the G20 summit in Bali in November last year.
The ties between India and China came under severe strain following the eastern Ladakh border row that began in May 2020.
Indian and Chinese troops are locked in an over three-year standoff in certain friction points in eastern Ladakh even as the two sides completed disengagement from several areas following extensive diplomatic and military talks.
India and China held the 19th round of Corps Commander-level talks on August 13 and 14 with a focus on resolving pending issues at the standoff areas of Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh.
A joint statement described the talks as 'positive, constructive and in-depth' and that both sides agreed to resolve the remaining issues in an expeditious manner.
Days after the fresh round of high-level talks, the local commanders of the two militaries held a series of negotiations in two separate locations to resolve issues in Depsang Plains and Demchok. | Global Organizations |
Xiao Yaqing, chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) attends a news conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China March 9, 2019. REUTERS/Stringer Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comBEIJING, July 28 (Reuters) - China is investigating the high-profile head of its industry and information technology ministry, Xiao Yaqing, for suspected violations of discipline and law, state media said on Thursday.No further details were immediately available.The news comes ahead of a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party at which President Xi Jinping, who has made the fight on graft a hallmark of his tenure, is expected to secure a precedent-breaking third five-year term as leader.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) oversees a vast swathe of the economy, from next-generation telecoms to semiconductors, vaccine production and electric vehicles.Xiao, 62, has been especially prominent in his promotion of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, the world's largest, and his investigation sends a message that the anti-graft drive will continue after the party meeting, typically held in the autumn, experts on Chinese politics said."The investigation of a full minister before the 20th Party Congress goes to show the party wants to keep up with the intensity of its anti-corruption drive," said Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute in Singapore.At a meeting on Thursday, the party's powerful 25-member Politburo said a round of inspections this month of national-level officials showed "the distinctive character of our Party's courage to carry out a revolution against ourselves", and that no one was exempt from supervision, state broadcaster CCTV said.Xiao was not mentioned.His last public appearance was on July 6, when he chaired a virtual conference of information ministers from the BRICS grouping of countries that also includes Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa.Xiao previously headed the State Administration for Market Regulation, and before that led the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.He was also part of China's small high-level government delegation to the 2018 World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Tony Munroe and Yew Lun Tian; Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Asia Politics |
Every few weeks I write a ‘Why isn’t Scottish Labour ahead in the polls yet?’ piece. Here is the latest instalment and the take away is: Labour still hasn’t sealed the deal but it continues to close in on a vulnerable SNP. New polling from Redfield and Wilton shows the SNP retaining its three-point lead over Labour in Westminster voting intentions, with the Nationalists on 37 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent. Plugging these figures into the Electoral Calculus prediction tool gives the SNP 27 seats and Labour 22. If the next election played out this way, the SNP would have failed to win a majority of Scottish seats for the first time since 2015.
Even so, given the events of the past six months, Labour might have been expected to be leading consistently by now. The SNP has lost its most successful leader in Nicola Sturgeon after a punishing row about the housing of Adam Graham (Isla Bryson), a convicted rapist, in a women’s prison. Then there was the messy leadership election, followed by police raids and internal tensions over the Holyrood coalition with the Greens. Plus the collapse of key policies on recycling and fishing, a rising bill for incomplete ferries and Humza Yousaf’s decision to keep gender reform front and centre.
Gender reform is the Scottish government’s most unpopular policy, with an approval rating of minus 19 per cent. Only Labour can’t capitalise on that because Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar whipped his MSPs to vote for the SNP-Green legislation. Beyond this, Labour has failed to gain traction on other areas where the Scottish government’s approval rating is minus double digits: the economy, housing and drugs policy. Voters are clearly beginning to have second thoughts about the SNP but they still seem unsure about Labour. Asked about their preferred First Minister, Scots prefer Yousaf over Sarwar by a margin of five points.
Despite this, there are signs of progress for Labour. Sarwar may trail Yousaf for First Minister but he is ahead by 13 points in overall job approval. Sir Keir Starmer’s approval rating is up among Scottish voters, standing at plus 2 per cent. The next Holyrood election isn’t until 2026 but Labour has edged ahead of the SNP in voting intentions for the second (regional list) ballot, albeit by one point. Labour’s strategy of attacking both the Scottish and UK governments would appear to chime with the voters. Questioned on competence, voters deem the former incompetent by a margin of 14 points and the latter by 49 points. Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also dropped eight points to minus 28 per cent.
So, why isn’t Scottish Labour ahead in the (Westminster) polls yet? Well, for one, the election is at least another 12 months away. For another, the floor of SNP support is artificially inflated by the independence issue. The Redfield and Wilton poll puts support for independence at 48 per cent when don’t knows are excluded, and while 73 per cent of SNP voters say they’d vote to secede from the UK, only 42 per cent of Labour voters say the same. The national question continues to be the SNP’s trump card among a section of the electorate. That doesn’t mean Labour’s ceiling is 22 seats, but it does mean that to come first in seats, it will either have to win over more independence supporters or hope the SNP does something to shed some of them or other members of its electoral coalition.
Despite my scepticism, I’m not convinced that Labour can’t win a plurality of Scottish seats next year. It would be a gruelling feat and involve effort, persuasion, positioning and luck – but it’s not impossible if Labour can convince voters that it’s the fresh alternative to two stale, failing governments in Edinburgh and London. | United Kingdom Politics |
- President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted the prime ministers of Denmark and the Netherlands.
- The visit comes days after the president was in Europe to broker the first peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
- The two prime ministers said South Africa's peace efforts were welcomed.
The prime ministers of Denmark and the Netherlands told President Cyril Ramaphosa that South Africa's peace efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine were welcomed.
On Tuesday, Ramaphosa hosted Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen for a working visit at the Sefako Makgatho Presidential Guesthouse in Pretoria.
The state visit comes days after Ramaphosa returned from a peace-brokering initiative to Ukraine and Russia.
At the weekend, he met with the leaders of the two warring countries, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
The ongoing war, which was sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, continues to concern global leaders.
The president and other African leaders had hoped the trip would be a first step in talks to end the war.
Ramaphosa labelled the visit a "success" and repeated the same mantra when speaking to Rutte and Frederiksen.
"Among other things, we called for a de-escalation of fighting and for negotiations to commence with urgency; for the release of prisoners of war and return of children; for greater humanitarian support; and for reconstruction efforts to be prioritised," Ramaphosa said.
"We used the meetings to highlight the damaging effect that this conflict is having on African countries and economies, contributing to food shortages and a rise in the cost of living. We believe that our mission was successful in registering the willingness of African leaders to contribute to a negotiated peace and to highlight the broader effects of the conflict. We hope that it will contribute in some way towards international peace efforts."
Frederiksen said: "We welcome your engagement in the war in Europe, and you have said it clearly that you have to be involved in our conflicts as well, and this is common ground for all of us."
Rutte said talks about the war had to be continued because "it is important that we stabilise the situation".
Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark lead their respective delegations in Official Talks during the joint working visit at the Sefako M. Makgatho Presidential Guesthouse in Tshwane.#NetherlandsInSA #DenmarkInSA pic.twitter.com/Px9P2ldlVu— South African Government (@GovernmentZA) June 20, 2023
The SA government has been widely criticised for its non-aligned stance on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
While South Africa is facing pressure, multiple political events in the coming months, including Putin's possible visit to the country in August for the BRICS Summit, will test whether harsher pressure will be mounted on the country.
The visit by the two European leaders included discussions on various matters, including energy, trade and business opportunities.
During his opening remarks, Rutte mentioned that he was most interested in South Africa's energy transition efforts. | Africa politics |
BRICS Expansion Gets Interesting If Saudis Join, Jim O’Neill Says
Adding countries to the BRICS bloc will matter economically if Saudi Arabia is one of them but otherwise it’s hard to see the point, said Jim O’Neill, a prominent economist and veteran of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
(Bloomberg) -- Adding countries to the BRICS bloc will matter economically if Saudi Arabia is one of them but otherwise it’s hard to see the point, said Jim O’Neill, a prominent economist and veteran of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“I think them joining — which I imagine if anybody is joining it will include them — is a pretty big deal,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Monday.
Expansion of BRICS membership is top of the agenda for the summit being hosted this week by South Africa in the commercial capital of Johannesburg.
The Emerging Market Bloc That Wants to Shake Up the World Order
There have been more than 20 formal applications to join and President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday night gave his formal backing to the goal of expanding the club. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in June declared that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Egypt - were all strong applicants.
O’Neill said Saudi Arabia’s traditionally close links with the US and role as world’s biggest swing oil producer means its addition to the club would add real weight.
“The first thing is whether they then start actually pricing the oil in all these local currencies and not in the dollar,” O’Neill, now a cross-bench peer in the House of Lords, said.
A key BRICS goal is to lessen dependence on the dollar by boosting payments in members’ currencies, alongside a long-term ambition to launch a common currency to challenge the greenback. O’Neill said the idea of a BRICS common currency displacing the dollar any time soon was “madness.”
O’Neill, who coined the acronym BRIC in 2001 to describe the rising might of Brazil, Russia, India and China — South Africa joined in 2010, a year after the founding four got together — said making it bigger could make it harder for the club to get things done.
“They’ve had enough difficulty trying to agree just between the five of them,” he said. “So beyond the admittedly hugely powerful symbolism, I’m not quite sure what having a lot more countries in there is going to achieve.”
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | Global Organizations |
Boris Johnson 'Jabba the Hutt' and 'thinks he's on Love Island' Labour leader pulling out a host of Star Wars references to attack the Prime Minister - and has accused him of "thinking he's on Love Island". "As for his boasting about the economy, he thinks he can perform Jedi mind tricks on the country - these aren't the droids you are looking for, no rules are broken, the economy is broken."The problem is the force just isn't with him anymore."He thinks he is Obi-Wan Kenobi. "The truth is, he is Jabba the Hutt."Sir Keir later adds: "He says the economy is booming when it's shrinking. "He is playing so much, he thinks he's on Love Island. But, Prime Minister I am reliably informed that contestants that give the public the ick get booted out." PM challenges Starmer to end 'sphinx-like silence' on rail strikes The prime minister has challenged the Labour leader to end his "sphinx-like silence" about the upcoming rail strikes.Boris Johnson asked whether Sir Keir Starmer would "break with his shadow transport secretary" and condemn the strikes.The intervention prompted a rebuke from the Speaker of the House who reminded Mr Johnson PMQs was for him to answer questions.Sir Keir responded by saying "he's in government, he could do something to stop the strike, but he hasn't lifted a finger. I don't want the strikes to go ahead, but he wants to teh country to grind to a hald so he can feed off the division." 'Britain set for lower growth than every major economy' says Keir Starmer Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer begins by paying tribute to those who served in the Falklands war.He then moves on to ask the Prime Minister why Britain is set for lower growth than every major country, except Russia.Boris Johnson replies by saying it is because the UK "came out of the pandemic faster" which has led to the "highest number of people on payroll employment on record".Sir Keir accuses the PM of blaming global forces: "But global forces mean everybody faces them." Boris Johnson leaves Number 10 to head to the Commons for PMQs Coming up at noon Boris Johnson will face questions from Labour's Sir Keir Starmer, the SNP's Ian Blackford and MPs at PMQs.After that, Home Secretary Priti Patel will make a statement on the government's Rwanda policy after the first deportation flight was grounded late last night. 'The government should have seen it coming' says lead immigration lawyer The government should have seen the legal challenges over its Rwandan immigration policy coming, a lawyer representing the lead case before the European Court of Human Rights has said.Geoffrey Robertson QC said: "It should have seen this coming, but it didn't - it was surprised."The European Court has paused flights until the policy is decided to be lawful by the British courts, he said. Mr Robertson said it could be September or October before flights are up and running again.The government, he told Sky News, has three options now - it can go back to the European Court and "argue that it was wrong", or it can proceed and fight the case properly next month in court and "simply pause any flight, not spend any money hiring planes... until the courts give the all-clear".Yesterday's cancelled flight cost an estimated £500,000.Or, he said, the government can put the case before parliament and put it into law which can't be struck down by the courts."They haven't had the gumption to submit it to parliament and that is perhaps what they should have done in the first place," he said.His clients, he said, are concerned they won't see a fair trial in Rwanda and questioned the impartiality of judges in the country."It's no answer to say these people will be processed by Rwandan judges and then set free," he added. Hard to see Brexit reconciliation as EU fires shot across UK's bows The EU's legal action is a shot across the bows of the UK, says Europe correspondent Adam Parsons.He says that the EU are effectively trying to portray themselves as the grown ups in the room, the ones who are prepared to keep negotiating and not act unilaterally in the way Boris Johnson's government have done.At the moment, Adam notes in his latest live update, it's quite hard to see where a reconciliation between the two sides will happen. Coming up this week on Beth Rigby Interviews... Beth will be getting the views of European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic, following the bloc's decision to start legal proceedings against the UK over the Northern Ireland Protocol.She will also be speaking to Sanaa Seif - a British-Egyptian film editor whose brother Alaa Abd El-Fattah is being held as a political prisoner in Egypt. The family want Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to do more to secure his release.Tune in to Beth Rigby Interviews at 9 o'clock on Thursday night - watch live on Sky 501, Virgin 602, YouTube and here on the Politics Hub. Tory backbenchers express concern over Boris Johnson's approach on the Northern Ireland Protocol Analysis by Amanda Akass, political correspondentThe government's proposed changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol aren't just proving controversial in Europe and with the government's political opponents.A number of Conservative MPs have also been highly critical – though it's not yet clear whether that will translate into a widespread backbench rebellion when the legislation eventually comes to a vote in the House of Commons. Simon Hoare MP is the chair of the Northern Ireland select committee. While he believes the green and red lane proposal is worth exploring further with the EU, he told me the bill is "a complete and utter failure of statecraft.""It's an abandonment of a treaty we very recently signed as a government - it's not the way the UK does its politics. There is a rules-based system, we can't lecture Putin on international law when we ourselves have a government looking to break it."Trying to provoke some sort of self-harm trade war in midst of political muscle flexing and testosterone seems to me a failure of politics," he says. "It's not what British governments do, and it's not what the Tory party does when in government."Sir Roger Gale, the MP for North Thanet and a veteran critic of the prime minister, says the government's command paper on the issue "sets out in grown up terms how to negotiate a proper settlement - that's how it ought to be done, by negotiation. But in tandem with that, the government has also published legislation which is in breach of the Vienna Convention on international treaties, it tramples all over international law. It does nothing to enhance, and a great deal to damage, our reputation in world politics and sends out a message we can't be trusted."How can we say to the Russian Federation, for example, 'you shouldn't be doing things', if we ourselves are trampling all over international law - which is effectively what we're going to do, or what we're proposing to do. "This is a very real concern and it's something parliament needs to address. "I cannot see how any Conservative can sign up to a piece of legislation that is breaking international law, plain and simple."For Sir Roger, who submitted a no confidence letter in Boris Johnson's leadership to the chair of the 1922 Committee back in December, it's been a dispiriting time in politics. "I'm very concerned indeed about the direction my party is heading in. "The prime minister got through with a less than impressive majority - 41% of the parliamentary party voting against him is very significant indeed. "If I was this prime minister I would be wanting to make friends and influence people, to build fences and try to re-establish a reputation for honesty and straight dealing. "What we are doing appears to be the opposite of that." EU launches fresh legal proceedings against the UK over plans to overhaul Northern Ireland Protocol European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic has confirmed the EU is taking legal action against the UK over the government's plans to unilaterally overhaul parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.Speaking in Brussels, Mr Sefcovic said there was "no legal or political justification whatsoever for unilaterally changing an international agreement."Opening the door to unilaterally changing an international agreement is a breach of international law as well."So let's call a spade a spade: this is illegal."He added: "It has created deep uncertainty and casts a shadow over our overall co-operation, all at a time when respect for international agreements has never been more important."That is why the Commission has today decided to take legal action against the UK for not complying with significant parts of the protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland."The Northern Ireland Protocol is part of the Withdrawal Agreement signed by the UK and EU. It was designed to allow Northern Ireland to remain in the UK's customs area while maintaining an open border on the island of Ireland and protecting the EU single market.It requires checks to be carried out on goods travelling from Great Britain, creating a border in the Irish sea that critics say undermines Northern Ireland's place in the United Kingdom. Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this. Open Privacy Options | United Kingdom Politics |
Nato’s secretary general said this week’s Madrid summit would agree the alliance’s most significant transformation for a generation, putting 300,000 troops at high readiness in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Jens Stoltenberg added that the military alliance’s existing forces in the Baltic states and five other frontline countries would be increased “up to brigade levels” – doubled or trebled to between 3,000 and 5,000 troops.That would amount to “the biggest overhaul of our collective defence and deterrence since the cold war,” Stoltenberg said before the meeting of the 30-country alliance, which runs from Tuesday to Thursday this week.The rapid reaction Nato Response Force currently numbers up to 40,000 but the proposed change amounts to a broader revision in response to Russian militarisation, which also includes bringing stocks of munitions and other supplies further east.The Norwegian secretary general conceded he could not make any promises about the progress of applications by Sweden and Finland to join Nato, because objections raised by Turkey to their membership remained unresolved.Stoltenberg said Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had agreed to meet the Swedish prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, and Finland’s president, Sauli Niinistö, on Tuesday in Madrid to try to resolve the issue.But he played down hopes of a breakthrough at the meeting on the margins of the Nato event. “It’s too early to say what kind of progress you can make by the summit,” he told a press conference.Turkey has said it will block the applications of Sweden and Finland unless it receives satisfactory assurances that the Nordic countries are willing to address what it regards as support for Kurdish groups it designates as terrorist organisations.Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will also address the summit, where he is expected to follow on from a plea made on Monday at the G7 meeting in Germany for western countries to provide arms so the war does not “drag on over winter”.Stoltenberg said Nato would agree “a strengthened, comprehensive assistance package” for Kyiv, including immediate help to “secure communications, anti-drone systems and fuel” and longer-term assistance in transitioning from Soviet standard arms and equipment to their western equivalents.But while the state of the war, now in its fifth month, is likely to dominate the summit, Nato itself will only offer limited direct support because its members do not want to enter into a fully fledged war with Russia. Arms supplies are instead made by member states.Nato maintains eight battle groups across eastern Europe, aimed at acting as an initial frontline defence in the event of a Russian invasion. Four are in the Baltic states and Poland and were supplemented by the creation of four more in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia following the attack on Ukraine.Germany said earlier this month it would contribute a brigade of troops to defend Lithuania, where the country leads a 1,000-member battle group, although it emerged that the bulk of the extra 3,500 Berlin intends to contribute will be based on its own soil, ready to move further east quickly if needed.Stoltenberg said he expected other Nato members to make similar announcements to defend the countries for which they are responsible. Extra troop numbers would be made up by “pre-assigned forces in their home country” who would regularly exercise in the countries to which they had been linked, he added.Britain contributes about 1,700 troops to a multinational battle group it leads in Estonia. The defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said nearly a fortnight ago it was highly likely the UK would assign hundreds more troops in support of Estonia.But Stoltenberg said there would not be a one-size-fits-all model, suggesting that not every battle group would be increased to the size of a full brigade. Canada leads the battle group in Latvia, where it contributes 700 troops from a total of about 1,000, while the US is responsible for Poland. | Europe Politics |
Around 43% of Indian youth in the 18-35 age group believe Russia has been India’s most reliable partner since Independence, according to a new survey. Strong support for New Delhi’s ties with Moscow remains a theme with younger Indians, with an overwhelming 87% backing the robust defence relations between the two countries. The report, titled “The ORF Foreign Policy Survey 2022: India @75 and the World", surveyed 5,000 young Indians across the country. The US, which ranks a distant second, was rated India’s most reliable partner by 27% of respondents. However, the United States is still viewed by India’s youth as the country most likely to be New Delhi’s leading partner in the next decade. More than 85% of young Indians picked America while 76% picked Russia. Support for Moscow has shot up considerably since last year when only 57% of respondents backed Russia. In a positive sign for the India-US partnership, large majorities of respondents believed that American support was crucial for India’s rise. Consequently, they supported closer economic and defence ties with the United States, particularly with regard to competition with China. Support for the Quad also remains strong. Young Indians also cast a wary eye towards India’s northern neighbour. “More than seven of every 10 respondents were of the view that China poses a global challenge to India’s rise," reads the report. However, as US-China tensions rise, 49% of young Indians would prefer that the country stays neutral in the emerging superpower competition. In 2021, 62% favoured increased cooperation with America in the face of tensions with China. That number dropped significantly to 41% this year, perhaps partly due to India’s experience staking a neutral stand on the ongoing war in Ukraine. As such, young Indians seem to have little appetite for what some have termed a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. Despite hostility to China, young Indians find that the BRICS forum- which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - is the most promising multilateral forum for New Delhi. They ranked it ahead of the emerging Quad as well as more established multilateral forums like the G20. Although the world seems to be suffering from a crisis of confidence in global institutions like the United Nations, India’s youth continue to back multilateralism in large numbers according to the report. The scars left by the Covid-19 pandemic are also apparent. When asked to identify India’s most pressing security challenges, a staggering “90 percent of respondents were concerned about the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic." Young Indians placed this threat ahead of border conflicts with China, territorial disputes with Pakistan, climate change and cybersecurity among others. Overall, there appears to be strong support for India’s current foreign policy stance. Around 77% of respondents rated New Delhi’s strategy positively while large majorities also expressed support for India’s handling of China in the aftermath of the Galwan crisis of 2020. Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates. More
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Prominent figures on the far right have praised Suella Braverman’s speech in which she warned of the “existential challenge” posed by illegal migration, and vowed to “capitalise” on her intervention.
The home secretary has already caused concern among liberal Tory MPs over her apparent threats to leave the European convention on human rights (ECHR). In the speech in Washington DC last week, she suggested that being gay or a woman and fearful of discrimination should not be enough to qualify as a refugee in the UK.
However, her intervention also received support from established far-right groups in the UK. Mark Collett, a former protege of the BNP leader Nick Griffin who now leads the Patriotic Alternative group, was among those to endorse Braverman’s address.
“Suella Braverman has basically admitted multiculturalism has failed and that mass immigration is a threat to the west,” he wrote in a Facebook post. “This is a good thing. Now I know that many nationalists will complain that this is just a pre-election stunt and that it is nothing more than a desperate attempt to win back voters. I don’t know whether that is entirely true. What I do know, is that what she said is a good thing for nationalism.”
In the post, uncovered by the anti-fascist Hope Not Hate group, Collett added that Braverman had “legitimised the conversation around the failure of multiculturalism” by using her position to raise the issue. “It makes the BBC and other organisations look extremely stupid when they liken making statements such as ‘multiculturalism has failed’ to acts of terrorism,” he said.
“We shouldn’t lament Suella Braverman telling the truth, we should capitalise on this and do our best to take control of this situation and steer the national conversation in the correct direction.”
Analysis by Hope Not Hate also claimed that Braverman’s speech contained echoes of the “Great Replacement Theory” – the premise that white Americans and Europeans are being actively “replaced” by non-white immigrants. Braverman said that “more than one in five births are to foreign-born mothers”.
“Uncontrolled immigration, inadequate integration, and a misguided dogma of multiculturalism have proven a toxic combination for Europe over the last few decades,” she said. “We are living with the consequence of that failure today. You can see it play out on the streets of cities all over Europe. From Malmö to Paris, Brussels to Leicester.
“Nor should it blind us from this simple truth: If cultural change is too rapid and too big, then what was already there is diluted. Eventually it will disappear.”
The Britain First group also tweeted that it “fully endorses [the] Suella Braverman ‘multiculturalism’ remarks,” adding: “She is saying publicly what everyone at home is privately thinking.”
While senior Tories have accused her of “freelancing” with one eye on the next Tory leadership election, Downing St has not disowned the speech. Sunak has kept Braverman in the role despite party concerns and has made “stopping the boats” crossing the Channel one of his main priorities since becoming leader.
However, some Tories have supported Braverman. George Osborne, the former chancellor, told his Political Currency podcast that it is “too easy to say these views are only the views of the far right”.
“It’s a problem, as I say, for people like me who are quite liberal minded on immigration, and had our fingers burnt on things like the Brexit referendum. And it’s a problem for centre-left parties, who frankly I think sometimes get mildly embarrassed by the view of their own supporters in the kind of industrial heartland of the north.”
Georgie Laming, director of campaigns at Hope not Hate, called on Conservatives concerned by her rhetoric to speak out. “Suella Braverman’s speech has taken far-right tropes and conspiracy theories, like the Great Replacement Theory, and introduced them to the mainstream,” she said.
“We’ve recorded a huge rise in far-right anti-migrant activism, fuelled in part by the divisive language and tactics coming from the Conservative party. Those in the Conservative party who are uncomfortable with where their party is heading must call this out.”
The Home Office declined to comment. | United Kingdom Politics |
It’s just over six years since years the UK voted to leave the EU. Now, I’m not quite sure back then how you thought the country might look in 2022 but I’d put money on you not imagining a prime minister capable of interpreting two disastrous byelections as a mandate to carry on for two further terms. If only The Convict had lost a few more byelections, then he could have nominated himself as president for life.But say you did make the right calls on Boris Johnson’s “World King” ambitions, surely no one would have dreamed that the UK would be busy trying to break the Brexit treaty it had signed just over two years previously. That was a level of incompetence and stupidity that was surely beyond even the derelicts who were left to make up The Rwanda Panda’s cabinet? Satire not just dead, but completely incinerated.We are where we are, though. So Liz Truss was in the Commons to introduce the second reading of the Northern Ireland protocol bill and to persuade herself that what she was doing was entirely normal and legal.Luckily, the foreign secretary isn’t the sharpest mind around and she is quite easily persuadable of almost anything. Not least, apparently, that she has the ability to be the next prime minister. The rest of us can only hope. Johnson has reduced us to a laughing stock without the laughs. Truss would be guaranteed full-on lols week in week out. Not so good for the country, of course, but you can’t have everything.Truss’s gullibility is almost endearing. She lives in a tabula rasa world where every day starts again anew. She is in a permanent state of forgetting. So when it was repeatedly pointed out to her that The Convict had insisted that his Brexit deal was compatible with the Good Friday agreement, she could only stick her fingers in her ears and start humming to herself.And when she was reminded she had campaigned to stay in the EU and her younger self would have been horrified at the thought of breaking international law, she responded by sobbing that she was a patriot. MPs half-expected her to hand out pictures of herself draped in the union flag, taken by her own vanity photographer. It was also surprising that Johnson hadn’t nabbed the excuse for himself. He had only repeatedly broken the law because it was what the country would have wanted of him.“It’s OK to break the law because it’s a necessity,” Truss insisted. The SNP’s Joanna Cherry asked just whose legal opinion the government had sought. Citing necessity for breaking a treaty that she and The Convict had willingly signed and called “The Oven Ready” deal barely two years earlier wouldn’t have fooled a five-year-old.Though it was more than good enough for Suella Braverman, who is currently cosplaying the role of attorney general. Most of the rest of us wouldn’t trust her to witness a signature. Braverman had wisely stayed away: no point returning to the scene of the crime.So the closest Truss had to a top legal mind to advise her in the chamber was the prime minister’s favourite fall guy, Michael Ellis, the Keeper of The Convict’s Stools. He’s certainly knee deep in it. Truss repeatedly looked pleadingly towards him, but he refused to catch her eye. Somewhere, locked deep in a lone neuron that passes for a conscience, is the lingering suspicion that someone might have been feeding her duff advice. So best to reset and ignore.Luckily, there were any number of Tory MPs who were only too happy to tell her she was a latter day genius. First out of the blocks was a priapic John Redwood, who squirmed with excitement at the thought of telling the EU where to get off. Others were equally half-witted. Sally-Ann Hart was adamant. The Tories had a majority and they could do what they want. The law was whatever the government happened to say it was. And if it had changed since a few weeks ago, then tough. People had better just get used to it.Truss was quick to agree. The government had decided to break the law because it couldn’t think of any other way of dealing with the problem. It wasn’t her fault the EU had been unreasonable enough to stick to the treaty and expect the UK to do likewise. She good as admitted that the treaty had only ever been a sham. Just something to con the more stupid backbenchers in her own party – that’s some low water mark – that the government could Get Brexit Done. Or, as it turned out, to Get Brexit Don’t.In reply, David Lammy. The shadow foreign secretary was the model of calm and reasonableness as he effectively dismantled Truss’s arguments one by one. The government’s legal case was laughable. What was required was more hard yards of negotiation. Not a strop at the first sign of trouble. Or trigger article 16 if you must. At least that was lawful.Just think of the hypocrisy of The Convict swanning around the G7 demanding other countries uphold international law, when the UK was self-identifying as a rogue state. It was brazen overreach, he said. The government was showing a total lack of respect for MPs by not obeying the law. Take Back Control had turned out to be yet another meaningless slogan.Many Tories were quick to side with Lammy. Andrew Mitchell, Simon Hoare and Theresa May all said they couldn’t support the government. But Truss had long since left the chamber. She wasn’t even going to go through the pretence of listening. She needed to return to the process of conscious uncoupling from herself. To work on her forgetting. To return to the morning’s state of unknowing. The real Liz. Even more stupid than the day she was born. | United Kingdom Politics |
U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen arrives at the meeting room during the G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali, July 15, 2022. Sonny Tumbelaka/Pool via REUTERSRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSEOUL, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described as "encouraging" talks with India about a proposed price cap on Russian oil that Washington is pushing to drive down oil prices and make it harder for Moscow to fund its war in Ukraine.Yellen, who arrived in Seoul on Monday evening, told Reuters in an interview en route to the South Korean capital that she was feeling generally positive about the initiative.“We’ll see where they come out. The conversations I’ve had have generally been encouraging," Yellen said aboard a military aircraft on her way from Indonesia to South Korea.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comA senior Treasury official said India had made no promises on the oil price cap, but was working with the United States and had not "expressed hostility to this idea".Yellen told reporters on Saturday that she had held productive bilateral meetings about the proposed price cap with more than six counterparts on the sidelines of a meeting of Group of 20 finance officials on the Indonesian island of Bali.The Treasury said she met there with officials from Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, Turkey and Singapore.Yellen spoke with her Indian counterpart before leaving for Asia, but did not meet him in Bali, a senior Treasury official said. Other senior U.S. Treasury officials have been in touch with lower-level Indian officials as well, the official said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Andrea Shalal
Editing by Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Global Organizations |
As soon as those immigration figures were published on Thursday, the anti-Brexit brigade succumbed to a collective orgasm of excitement.
‘You see!’ they gasped into any passing microphone. ‘You see the broken promises of the Brexiteers!
‘They told the British people they could take back control. They told us that they could cut immigration — and look!’
In 2022, post-Brexit Britain seems to have swallowed the population equivalent of a city the size of Leeds. We have net migration running at an all-time high, something like 740,000; and so the Left-liberal, pro-Brussels elite is using the moment to hammer the very idea of leaving the EU.
It’s failed, they crow. Brexit’s a dud, they say, and not for the first time they are talking out of the backs of their necks. What they say is the flat opposite of the truth, and in their cynical hearts they know.
Yes, of course we have a problem with immigration on this scale, and these numbers are way, way too big. People will not accept demographic change at this kind of pace — even in the most achingly liberal of countries and capital cities. Look at what is happening in Dublin, where that lovely and happy city seems to have been engulfed by race riots.
Look at Holland, where a patently Islamophobic candidate, Geert Wilders, has just won 37 seats in the parliament and may yet become prime minister.
The people of Ireland and Holland, in my experience, are among the nicest, kindest, most generous in the world; and yet there are plainly large numbers in both countries who are starting to worry that something has gone wrong, and that the EU system of free movement — a border-free Europe for the entire 450million-strong territory — has too many downsides.
Well, the whole point of Brexit is that we are no longer in the same legal subservience as Ireland and Holland. We have the powers to sort it out, and to change our immigration rules — which is exactly why the British people voted to take back those powers in 2016. We can do it now.
Look carefully at those immigration figures, and you can see much that reflects well on the UK. The numbers show, most obviously, that the anti-Brexit brigade were totally wrong about the attractions of post-Brexit Britain.
They said we would become a kind of global leper, reeking of xenophobia, and that the world’s talent would stay away. Well that was always rubbish — and these figures prove it.
The numbers show that motivated people across the world yearn to come to this country, and I can tell you, as a child of the 1970s - an era of decline and net emigration - that has not always been the case.
What these figures also show is the great humanitarian and compassionate instincts of the British people, in opening up to those fleeing chaos and murder in Ukraine, or oppression in Hong Kong.
The immigration figures testify to this country’s amazing higher education sector, and the sheer number of brilliant young people whose families will pay very handsome fees to allow them to come here and attend the best universities in the world. All these are positive features of the immigration data; and yet we must be frank.
What the numbers also show is that after Brexit we underestimated the magnetic pull of the UK; and the numbers show that the British labour market is continuing to inspire large numbers of low-skilled people to want to come to work here — and for low incomes. That is a mistake. The beauty of Brexit is that we can change those incentives, and address the problem in a way that is open to no other European country.
It is time to increase the minimum income you must earn in order to get a UK work visa.
You will remember that after Brexit everyone was wailing about the thought of EU workers fleeing Britain, and business was worried about shortages. So the Migration Advisory Committee put the minimum at only £26,000 — not much more than the living wage.
The effects of this were perhaps masked by the Covid pandemic, when migration was largely suppressed. But it is clear from these numbers that the Migration Advisory Committee pitched it way too low.
It turns out that they had massively underestimated the number of EU nationals still living in Britain — by at least a million; and they underestimated the continuing attractions of the UK to all migrants, EU and non-EU.
The minimum income for most types of migrant worker coming to the UK should now go right up to £40,000 or more — because it is the right thing for migrant workers, and for the entire British workforce.
When we do it, I will tell you what will happen. A lot of very rich people in this country will go crackers.
They will protest that they cannot afford to run their businesses if they have to pay their foreign workers that kind of money; and they will complain in the same breath that British people are too idle and feckless to do those types of jobs.
I say, tough. It is time to call them out. For decades we have seen a failure by corporate Britain to invest: in new plants, in new research and technology, and, above all, a criminal failure to invest in the skills and potential of the domestic workforce.
No wonder so many millions of Brits are skiving on benefits or sick pay, and won’t take these jobs on which we all depend — in crucial sectors such as social care. It is not just the distortions of the welfare system (though they are acute); it is that the jobs themselves are underpaid and undervalued.
No wonder British productivity has so stubbornly failed to increase, when British capitalism has been able for so many years to mainline low-skilled workers from abroad, and all the while the wealth gap — the difference in income between the top executives and the workforce — has so massively increased.
In 2016, people voted to change all that. They voted to send a message to the Government and to big business that the old model was broken. It is time to heed that message, and invest in British skills, talent, infrastructure and technology.
Of course we must remain open to the world, and the talented people who have so much to offer this country.
We need the world’s best scientists — and that is why we set up the fast-track visa for scientists. We want young minds to come to help fertilise the tech businesses that are sprouting not just in London but across the whole of the UK.
But we cannot continue with an economic system that depends entirely on fresh infusions, every year, of low-skilled and low-paid workers from around the world. Britain is the most densely-populated large country in Europe.
Immigration has become like a Ponzi scheme, encouraging us to suck in more and more people, rather than sorting out all the reasons for UK under-productivity: skills, welfare, infrastructure.
It is obvious from these numbers that we were misled by the post-Covid lull, and that we set the minimum income for a general work visa way too low. It should go up to £40,000 immediately.
Remember this: without Brexit, we wouldn’t even have the power to do it, and when we do it, it will be a boost for workers across Britain. And it will be what we voted for. | United Kingdom Politics |
The Conservatives needed to win this conference season. We are late in the parliament, we began the autumn with Labour holding a commanding poll lead and Tory morale was low. The Prime Minister had decided he was going to take a bolder approach and truly set out what he was about. The public rarely pays much attention to politics but now was an opportunity to make a difference.
A difference has been made but from a Conservative perspective it is not a positive one. The Tories had a poor conference, Labour a very successful one. The scale of the disparity was greater than at any time since… well, just last year. But if we ignore the Liz Truss implosion, one would have to go back to Tony Blair’s pomp.
The Conservatives spent the first three days of their conference looking like a right-wing fringe party. Only on the fourth day was Rishi Sunak the most prominent voice. Unfortunately, this did not do the Conservatives much good. He needed to distance himself from the fiscal irresponsibility of Truss and the general irresponsibility of Boris Johnson but ducked the opportunity. Instead he indiscriminately trashed the record of all Conservative governments since 1993, framing them as short-termist and unserious.
Putting aside the fact he has antagonised generations of former ministers, there are problems with this approach. Ed Miliband’s criticisms of the Blair-Brown governments – often ill-targeted and uncombined with a compelling vision of his own – made it easier for those of us who were Labour’s opponents to dismiss the party’s record in office as one long mistake. But, above all, if you are going to make the case that you lead a long-termist and serious government, it does not help if your principal announcement is a hurried, opportunistic policy that unravels within hours.
There might be a case for scrapping HS2 and replacing it with a programme of smaller transport infrastructure projects but Sunak and the small team around him did not do the work necessary to announce such a policy. Nor would it have been possible for a small team in the time available to do this work. Being forced to concede five days after the announcement that the list of replacement projects was merely “illustrative” was truly humiliating for someone who has a reputation for being on top of the detail. Not to spare the Prime Minister from wounding but deserved criticism, it was behaviour one might have expected from Johnson.
There is a public appetite for a change in how we do politics, as evidenced by the fact both party leaders are trying to embody that change. On the basis of these past two conferences, this is a contest Keir Starmer is winning easily. Neither leader is a natural radical or blessed with a charisma that separates them from conventional politicians. But Sunak has left it too late to make a break from the Johnson and Truss regimes and, in the former case, was too closely associated with it. If his conference speech was supposed to provide a gust of fresh air to put wind into the Tory sails, it simply blew them towards the rocks.
Starmer can at least point to the indisputable fact he has taken on and changed his party. The standing ovation he won for asserting that Israel is entitled to defend itself shows how much Labour has changed for the better since the Corbyn era.
Unlike Sunak, Starmer has been willing to condemn wholeheartedly what went immediately before him. Sunak’s failure to do so within his own party means that Labour will keep attacking Truss and Johnson (both of whom appeared to feature in Labour speeches as prominently as the current Prime Minister) and tie them to the current Conservative Party.
Politically, Starmer has demonstrated greater willingness to move onto the centre ground than Sunak. He made a direct appeal to Tory voters who “look in horror” as the party descends into “the murky waters of populism and conspiracy”, arguing that “if you feel we need a party that conserves, that fights for union, our environment, rule of law… let me tell you, Britain already has one. It’s this Labour Party.”
There was recognition of the importance of a thriving private sector, fiscal responsibility and the limits of the state. Labour’s ambitions for planning reform, an industrial strategy and a more pragmatic approach to Brexit are helping to win over business, as is the widespread view that Rachel Reeves is a credible chancellor-in-waiting. It was, nonetheless, the speech of someone on the centre left, enthusiastic about stronger employment rights and unashamedly pitching to “working people”.
There remain unresolved tensions. The UK’s fiscal situation is deteriorating as its debt interest bill rises through higher gilt yields. It will become increasingly obvious that taxes will have to go up. Miliband’s £28bn Green Prosperity Plan will likely never be affordable. Labour’s employment rights agenda – the expansion of collective bargaining, full rights for workers from day one and the abolition of zero-hour contracts – will cause tensions with business in time. Delivering planning reform is much harder than promising it. Labour’s Brexit policy is too timid to be transformative.
All of this means that a Starmer government will be beset with difficulties – there will not be much of a feel-good factor. But for the first time since 1996, this looked like a Labour opposition destined for election victory. The Tories needed a good conference season; it was Labour who got it.
[See also: It’s Rachel Reeves’s party now] | United Kingdom Politics |
Labour’s performance in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections last week hit the top end of expectations – they won the Conservatives’ 55th safest seat of Tamworth and overturned a majority of nearly 25,000 in Mid Bedfordshire. As Alistair Strathern, Labour’s victorious candidate in Mid Bedfordshire, put it, the result would seem to show “nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party”.
Those in the Labour Party who have been advocating a ‘safety first’ strategy of not promising anything radical or that could scare Middle England will no doubt feel vindicated.
The party has managed to cast off the image of fiscal ill discipline it earned during the Corbyn years, and voters do not think that Keir Starmer will break the bank. Yet beneath the surface, the by-election results offer pause for thought.
Unhappiness with the Tories is a key driver of Labour’s poll lead
While it is true that the swings were on a par with those that Tony Blair secured in the run-up to 1997, turnout was far lower. In 1996, Labour secured a 22-point swing on a 62% turnout in the predecessor seat to Tamworth. Fast forward to last week, and barely more than half that figure voted. Arguably, voter apathy won last Thursday.
That apathy matches what we find in our polling and focus groups across Britain. A staggering 75% of the country wants a change of government, but the public are only five points more likely to say that Labour would have done a better job than the Tories over the past 13 years.
Labour’s position in the polls is not driven by huge support for the party’s leaders or policies; when asked why they are voting Labour, the top reason voters give (at 48%) is “to get the Conservatives out”. More than half of the public (53%) say they don’t know what Starmer stands for, and even more say the same of his Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves. A new dawn this is not.
There are dangers to Labour winning by default
Does this ultimately matter? Perhaps not. Labour can clearly win, and win big, without a surge of popular enthusiasm. But there are dangers to winning by default. As Uxbridge showed, broad but shallow leads can evaporate in the face of a strong local campaign, and the Tories hope the same will happen if the economy improves.
What’s more, even if apathy doesn’t stop Starmer forming the next government, it is likely to make it much harder in office, leaving them with a questionable mandate and no honeymoon. The risk is that Labour has reached peak ‘not being Tory’.
That is also reflected in our new polling. Asked to describe attributes they see in Starmer, ‘intelligent’ is top, followed closely by ‘boring’, ‘indecisive’ and ‘weak’. Starmer is also over-indexing on caution, which ranks lowest in ‘what people want from a politician’ in the list of attributes that we tested.
Meanwhile, the sense that Labour won’t keep to their promises is tied when people give their top hesitation about voting Labour – including among the crucial electoral segment More in Common calls “loyal nationals” who best reflect those voters who abandoned Labour in 2019 in places like the ‘Red Wall’.
None of this means that Labour has to suddenly turn on the spending taps or promise a lofty vision that is unlikely to land with a cynical public. Instead, our polling finds that Labour would do better to make more of what they have already announced and resist the temptation to water down their pledges in the face of Tory attacks – which would risk reinforcing Starmer’s weaknesses.
Labour’s policy offer is popular – especially its green policy
There is significant support for Labour’s pledge to end private school tax breaks, and the public are among their most passionate discussing tackling non-dom perks and ensuring there is a proper windfall tax. Labour would do well to talk more about these policies with the public.
But perhaps the area with the greatest potential lies in Labour’s green prosperity plan. Public support for the plan is high at 57%, rising to 61% among loyal national voters and a mammoth 84% among the group of voters who opted for the Conservatives in 2019 but who are now voting Labour.
What’s more, our Cameronite ‘established liberal’ voter segment who will help to decide the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ think that the plan marks Labour out as a credible party of government.
Instead of shying further away from green investment plans, as some briefing has suggested, Labour instead needs to spell out how the money will be used both to improve the environment and to deliver jobs, prosperity and growth.
Indeed, we find real risks for the Labour Party in diminishing the plan – with four in ten of those currently voting Labour saying they would consider or definitely switch if Labour watered down their climate plans. Not sticking to climate pledges will do more harm than good.
Starmer has done an impressive job of getting the party to where it is today, achieving a detoxification that took Neil Kinnock, John Smith and Tony Blair more than a decade to do. The challenge for Starmer now is to go beyond detoxification and to use Labour’s already popular offer on taxes, housing and, most importantly, green investment to transform apathy into enthusiasm. | United Kingdom Politics |
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to ease an effective ban on new onshore wind farms in England to see off a rebellion by Conservative MPs.
Ministers are set to change planning rules to make it easier for onshore wind farms to be built.
Last year, the UK government promised to relax the rules by the end of April under pressure from some Tory MPs.
But with restrictions still in place, Tories have intervened again to force the government to act on its pledge.
A group of 25 Tory MPs, led by former COP26 president Sir Alok Sharma, had been attempting to push the government to ease planning restrictions, with an amendment to the Energy Bill.
The current rules, introduced under former Prime Minister David Cameron in 2015, mean an objection from just one person over an onshore wind development in England could stop it going ahead.
Sir Alok's amendment would also ensure local communities willing to host turbines would receive direct benefits and that local decisions made on onshore wind cannot be overturned on appeal.
But Labour says its amendment goes further than Sir Alok's by bringing the planning rules for onshore wind in line with all forms of major infrastructure.
MPs will consider the government's Energy Bill in the House of Commons on Tuesday after returning from their summer break.
Ahead of the bill's return, a government source told the BBC a minister would make a statement outlining "changes to planning policy with regard to onshore wind".
Consultations on relaxing planning restrictions and benefits for communities who host wind farms closed earlier this year, with the government's responses expected soon.
The proposals, which included relaxing a requirement for turbines to be built on pre-designated land, were criticised by the renewable energy industry as not going far enough.
The government said it backed the development of onshore wind where there was local support.
"We consulted on changes to national planning policy that could give local authorities more flexibility to respond to the views of their communities, and to demonstrate their support for areas suitable for onshore wind proposals," a government spokesperson said.
The exact mechanism for measuring that support is yet to be determined.
Wind of change
Sir Alok told the BBC that he and the Tory MPs who backed his amendment were waiting to see what the government would come forward with in response to their proposals.
The former secretary for business and energy said wanted to see the "outdated" right of an individual to effectively block a wind farm to be removed.
He said: "The current situation we have is that just one objection can prevent a wind farm from being built.
"I mean, clearly, that is not a community veto. And frankly, I don't think it's a sensible way for a planning system to operate."
He added there should be a "direct linkage" between communities who accept onshore wind farms and them getting a benefit, such as a discount on their energy bill.
Tory MP Sir Simon Clarke, who has backed Sir Alok's amendment, said he was "optimistic" after talks with the government, but that there was still "more work to do".
However, other Tory MPs have opposed onshore wind developments in their areas because of the impact on local residents and landscapes.
The announcement expected on Tuesday would be the second time Mr Sunak has been pressured to act on onshore win by his own MPs.
When he became prime minister last year, he said he would retain the effective ban on new onshore wind.
But facing a rebellion by his backbench MPs, he reversed that position in December last year and said the ban would be lifted.
Wind farms form part of the government's attempts to decarbonise the energy system, end dependence on imported fossil fuels and lower household bills.
The UK is a world leader in offshore wind, with turbines in the sea generating enough power to meet the electricity needs of 41% of the nation's homes last year, according to a report by the Crown Estate.
But research by the University of the West of England found policy change had led to a 97% decrease in the number of onshore wind turbines that have been granted planning permission between 2016 and 2021, compared to the period 2009-2014.
In a progress report this year, the Climate Change Committee said that the government had "lost its clear global climate leadership" by failing to invest in renewable energy, such as wind power.
Labour says the Energy Bill is "the first major test" of the new Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary, Claire Coutinho, who was appointed to the role last week.
Labour's shadow energy and net zero secretary, Ed Miliband, said: "Will she persist with the Tories' disastrous ban onshore wind, which has undermined Britain's energy security and cost families money, or will she put country before party, stand up to her cabinet colleagues, and back homegrown clean power?" | United Kingdom Politics |
The First Minister, who made the comments at a live recording of The Political Party with Matt Forde, clarified however that he believed his predecessor quit due to the impact on her personal life.
He said he took this explanation at “face value” and had never known the former first minister to ever be “dishonest or untruthful”, adding that the image of the police tent on the Sturgeon/Murrell garden would be “seared into people’s minds”.
Ms Sturgeon is one of the three high profile members of the SNP, alongside her husband and former chief executive of the party, Peter Murrell, and the former treasury of the party, Colin Beattie MSP, to have been arrested in connection with the police probe which began following complaints about an alleged missing £600,000 in crowdfunded donations.
However, the outgoing chief constable of Police Scotland, Iain Livingstone, confirmed that the investigation has now moved beyond the initial complaints. No charges have been made and all three individuals were released pending further investigation.
Mr Yousaf said that he “did not believe that Nicola [Sturgeon] knew what people are accusing her of knowing” when asked about the impact of the police investigation on his first few months as First Minister.
He said: “If I had known then what was going to transpire, I still would have gone for First Minister of Scotland because it is the greatest honour, why would you not go for it.
"In terms of the police investigation, have to be careful what I say, I don’t believe that Nicola knew what people are accusing her of knowing.”
He added that he was phoned by Ms Sturgeon at around 9.45pm on Valentine’s Day and initially told her that it was the wrong decision to stand down, with her explaining that it was the impact of the job on her personal life that led her to the decision, highlighting the experience of having coffee with friends in the presence of protective police officers.
Asked whether part of him thought, following the arrests by police, that that was why the former first minister stepped down, Mr Yousaf said: “I think everybody had that thought.”
"But I genuinely believe Nicola when she says...going by her public commentary, when she said I did not know what was going to happen and it is the stuff of absolute nightmares for her. She’s used the word traumatic and I absolutely believe her.
"I’ve known Nicola for well over 15 years and she goes a long way back with my Dad whose small business accountancy office and basement was her first base when she fought against Mohammad Sarwar for the Glasgow Southside seat.
"We go back a long, long time and I’ve not known Nicola to be dishonest or untruthful. She has always been absolutely straight, and I take her at face value.”
The First Minister also bemoaned the timing of the arrests, adding they impacted his ability to introduce himself to the public.
He said: “The timing of it has been challenging as well. I remember the call I got about Peter’s arrest...and I remember it was our April recess.
"We had this recess period where we thought this is the time where you get to dominate the agenda, set out your stall a little bit, and then Peter gets arrested and that dominates for weeks and weeks.
"Then I thought right we’re back at the parliament, I’m going to launch my policy prospectus; Colin Beattie gets arrested.
"The most frustrating part for me is the inability to get cut-through for what I’m trying to do because I’m afraid, whether I like it or not, the police investigation of course got cut-through and that image of police tent in the garden, that is going to sear in people’s minds.”
In a wide-ranging interview to a half empty room in Teviot Row House, Mr Yousaf also spoke about the challenges facing the independence movement and said there were “no shortcuts” to a referendum.
He said: “I genuinely believe that the only way we will break the impasse is through people power, that’s how we got the Scottish parliament...it’s that famous phrase the settled will.
"There’s no shortcuts. We’ve got to make sure that what we are in control of – I’m not in control of when a Prime Minister gives me a referendum, I’ve got to create the political conditions for that to happen but I’m not in control of it.
"I’m certainly in control of building support here in Scotland, that’s in my gift.”
The First Minister also explained why he thought issues such as Brexit, a Boris Johnson premiership, and the Liz Truss mini-budget had not pushed people into voting Yes en masse.
Mr Yousaf said: “These issues obviously strengthen our case, but it is nowhere near enough to expect people to vote for independence as a negative proposition.
"That’s undoubtedly going to be part of an argument, but the argument has to be where’s the hope, where’s the vision. I think people are crying out for that.
"I think the independence movement, and I’ve got to hold my hands up here because I’ve been a member of that movement for quite a number of years, has not done enough to say the positives of independence, the hope, the ambition, that is what will shift the dial.”
Mr Yousaf also defended the use of VIP security processes at airports by stating that often it was due to security concerns around politicians.
He raised the fact MPs have been murdered in recent years and that at least six people have been charged in connection with abuse he has personally received.
The SNP leader, speaking about his pride in becoming the first Muslim First Minister, highlighted a continued lack of diversity in Holyrood, such as the lack of any black MSPs.
He said: “There’s a lot of diversity that just hasn’t come through our political ranks yet in Scotland, but I genuinely hope can look at me and I’ve had this a lot in the last 130 odd days, a lot of people from different diversities saying you know what, because you’ve made it it makes us feel like anyone can make it which is a bit of inspiration I hope I can give.
"This is maybe an uncomfortable message for some, but I’ve spent most of my political life being told by mainly middle-aged white male conservatives both in politics and, frankly, some in the media, that I’m not smart enough, that I’m out of my depth, essentially saying that you don’t belong here in the political realm.
"I hope that any other person, whether it’s your colour, whether it’s your gender, or your background and you get told actually you don’t belong here, you should kind of look at me and say ‘f*** you’.” | United Kingdom Politics |
India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attends a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on July 8, 2022. Stefani Reynolds/Pool via REUTERSRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comNEW DELHI, July 29 (Reuters) - Indian and Chinese foreign ministers were to attend a regional conference in Uzbekistan on Friday, a day after New Delhi expressed concern over a Chinese military ship's planned visit to a strategic port in India's southern neighbour Sri Lanka.New Delhi worries that the Chinese-built and leased Hambantota port will be used by China as a military base in India's backyard. The $1.5 billion port is near the main shipping route from Asia to Europe.Relations between India and China have been strained since armed clashes on their border two years ago killed at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comShipping data from Refinitiv Eikon showed research and survey vessel Yuan Wang 5 was en route to Hambantota and was expected to arrive on Aug. 11, at a time when Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis in seven decades. India has provided its neighbour with nearly $4 billion in support this year alone.China has not officially commented on the ship's visit and the matter has not gained traction in Chinese media. China's foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.Foreign security analysts describe the Yuan Wang 5 as one of China’s latest generation space-tracking ships, used to monitor satellite, rocket and intercontinental ballistic missile launches.The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military modernisation says the Yuan Wang ships are operated by the Strategic Support Force of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).During a weekly briefing late on Thursday, an Indian foreign ministry spokesman said the government was monitoring the planned visit of the Chinese ship, adding that New Delhi would protect its security and economic interests. read more Spokesman Arindam Bagchi declined to say if Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in the Uzbek capital Tashkent. SCO members include China, India, Russia, Pakistan and central Asian nations.Sri Lanka is a "dialogue partner" in the group but it was not immediately clear if it was attending.India has already lodged a verbal protest with the Sri Lankan government against the ship's visit, Reuters reported on Thursday.A Sri Lankan consulting firm, the Belt & Road Initiative Sri Lanka, said on its website that Yuan Wang 5 would be in Hambantota for a week and will "conduct space tracking, satellite control and research tracking in the north-western part of the Indian Ocean region through August and September".Sri Lanka formally handed over commercial activities at its main southern port to a Chinese company in 2017 on a 99-year lease after struggling to repay its debt.China is one of Sri Lanka's biggest lenders and has also funded airports, roads and railways, unnerving India, which is now trying to claw back lost ground.Sri Lanka angered India in 2014 when it allowed a Chinese submarine and a warship to dock in Colombo.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Krishna N. Das in New Delhi, Yew Lun Tian in Beijing and Greg Torode in Hong Kong; Editing by Raju GopalakrishnanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Asia Politics |
Type "Reform UK" into a search engine and the first question that comes up is "does Reform UK still exist?"
The party that emerged from the ashes of the Brexit Party nearly three years ago - minus leader Nigel Farage - has had little mainstream media coverage.
Yet someone is paying attention because Reform UK has consistently been in fourth place in the opinion polls, at around 6%, just ahead of the Green Party.
Reform's leader Richard Tice grabbed some headlines at the start of this year when he declared his aim was to wipe out the Conservative Party.
He sounds more even-handed in his disdain, when I ask if he still feels that way.
"The Tories have broken Britain and we believe Labour would bankrupt Britain - and the country has never been in such a terrible state," he says.
Mr Tice claims that Rishi Sunak's recent policy shifts on net zero and Home Secretary Suella Braverman's criticisms of the UN's refugee convention - not to mention the government's apparent rethink on HS2 - are a direct result of pressure from Reform.
"Imitation is a great form of flattery and what's happened is they are terrified of the number of people up and down the country who recognise that we actually stand up for the common sense solutions to the massive challenges that have resulted from Tory mismanagement."
Reform UK campaigns to scrap the 2050 target for achieving net zero carbon emissions - and Mr Tice says the UK should take the lead on reforming the "outdated" 1951 refugee convention.
"We should say to the UN, as one of the most respected nations in the world, either we amend this or give a clear six month deadline or we are out," he says.
He has also called for HS2 to be scrapped altogether, branding it a "grotesque waste of taxpayers' cash".
But it is the net zero issue - he calls it "net stupid" - that he hopes will get his party noticed.
"The vitriol that I get is far greater on net zero than it ever was on Brexit," he says.
He has called on Rishi Sunak to hold a referendum net zero - a plea that has fallen on deaf ears.
"Do you know why? Because he's terrified he'd lose it. And that a referendum on net zero, led by Nigel Farage and myself, would win."
Nigel Farage is the ghost at the table in any interview with Ricard Tice. The former UKIP leader's profile has rarely been higher after his battle with the banking industry.
Mr Tice presents a programme on GB News (he was quick to condemn fellow presenter Laurence Fox's recent comments) which he says gets him recognised by voters.
But he is hardly a household name. Will Mr Farage come out of retirement one final time to lend his profile to the party he founded?
"Nigel and I are great friends, we speak to each other frequently, every week, He is doing a great job at GB News.
"He has said he wouldn't want to stand again under first-past-the post but any help that he is able to give us, if we move towards PR, fantastic."
Richard Tice seems convinced that the UK will soon ditch first-past-the-post elections in favour of some form of proportional representation.
Without such a change, he concedes that smaller parties like his will always struggle to get MPs elected to Westminster.
Reform has so far been unable to convert its polling figures into electoral success, performing poorly in May's local elections.
But Mr Tice emphatically rules out trying to use Reform's influence in other ways, such as by striking a deal with Conservatives that support its agenda, as Nigel Farage did in 2019 with the Brexit Party.
Mr Farage was cheered by Tory MPs at a gala dinner in Manchester on Sunday, not far from the Tory conference, as he was praised for helping Boris Johnson win the 2019 general election by not contesting more than 300 seats.
Asked about the prospect of a similar deal next year, Mr Tice says: "We are standing 630 candidates in the whole of England, Scotland and Wales. Every single seat. I've already got over 400 lined up and there's a few more hundred going through the process. We are standing everywhere.
"And anybody who thinks we are standing down and doing deals with anybody - they can forget it."
Reform is holding its party conference in London at the weekend. It will be a modest affair compared with the Tory get-together in Manchester, with 1,100 attendees, but its leader is keen to point out that at £12.50 a ticket is "much better value" than the Tory conference.
He insists Reform is "neither to the left or the right", although he attacks the party's bigger rivals from the right, branding Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt "consocialists" who he says are no different to the "socialist Labour Party".
He also expresses some sympathy for Liz Truss's "tax cutting, high-growth agenda", arguing that the short-lived Tory PM's mistake was not to link it to a plan to "cut wasteful government spending in order to pay for it".
But his strategy is to attack what he sees as the mainstream political consensus, in the hope of striking a chord with voters - or ex-voters - who have had enough of conventional politicians.
"We've got a country that is broken after years and years of promises and manifestos by both main parties and they have let everybody down and it's time for change, it's time for something different. We represent that different alternative." | United Kingdom Politics |
Boris Johnson has spoken to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative 1922 Committee, to inform him of his decision to resign as leader though he will remain Prime Minister until a successor is appointedVideo LoadingVideo UnavailableWatch Live: Boris Johnson resign as Conservative leaderBoris Johnson has resigned after a chaotic 24 hours which saw more than 50 Tories quit the Government. The PM has been hit with a flurry of resignations this morning as the new Education Secretary quits and the Chancellor tells him to do the right thing as the desperate PM clings to power. The disgraced leader informed the Queen of his decision this morning and will remain at Number 10 until a successor is in place, expected to be by the time of the Conservative Party conference in October. The PM has been hit with a flurry of resignations this morning - as the new Education Secretary quit and his Chancellor told him to do the right thing. More than 50 Tories have quit the government - ranging from from Cabinet ministers to aides and moderates to Red Wallers - but with hours to go until his resignation statement the PM has begun a desperate Cabinet reshuffle. Yesterday, the Prime Minister shamelessly refused to resign, sacking Michael Gove who told him to quit and sparking another flurry of desertions. The revelation the PM knew about claims against “grope” accused MP Chris Pincher, then promoted him, then “forgot” he’d been told, was the last straw for many Tories. Follow the latest updates today in our live blog12:37Aletha AduThe PM speaks to the people of UkraineMr Johnson then addressed the people of Ukraine.He said: "Message to the people of Ukraine - Let me say now to the people of Ukraine, I know we in the UK will continue to back your fight for freedom for as long as it takes."12:36Dan BloomPM says he fought 'so hard'Addressing Tory voters directly, the bullish PM hailed his mandate in 2019 and said he fought “so hard” to stay because “I wanted to do so” and felt “it was my job, my duty, my obligation to you, to continue to do what we promised in 2019.”12:35Dan Bloom'The process for a new leader will begin now'Mr Johnson said the people have now decided “the process of choosing that new leader should begin now.”He added: "The timetable will be announced next week and I’ve today appointed a Cabinet to serve as I will until a new leader is in place.”12:34Lizzy BuchanBoris Johnson has resignedBoris Johnson announced his resignation just after lunchtime today.Standing outside Downing Street, he said: "It is clearly now the will of the Parliamentary Conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new prime minister.”It comes in the wake of the scores of ministers resigning over the handling of the Chris Pincher scandal.Mr Johnson suffered serious blows this week as his once closest allies had told him to throw in the towel.This morning resignations continued as Mr Johnson announced new cabinet appointments.Now that he has resigned, there is growing anger over Mr Johnson over whether he stays on as a caretaker until October or he leaves office immediately.Read more here12:30Alahna KindredBoris Johnson's statement imminent The lectern has been set upWorkers set the podium outside 10 Downing Street, where British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to make a statement (Image:REUTERS)12:29Alahna KindredNew Minister announcedAndrew Stephenson has been appointed Minister without Portfolio12:26Dave BurkeFortune teller who predicts future using asparagus predicts Boris Johnson's successorA fortune teller dubbed "Mystic Veg" as she predicts the future using asparagus believes that Ben Wallace will be the UK's next Prime Minister. Jemima Packington, 66, previously foresaw Brexit, Boris Johnson becoming PM four years before he took office, Prince Philip's death and Harry and Meghan stepping back from the Royal Family. She makes her predictions by tossing spears into the air and interpreting how they land on the ground.Now Jemima says the spears are pointing towards Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to take over as leader once Mr Johnson resigns. She also believes 100/1 outsider Nadine Dorries could also be in with a shout of taking over as PM - and is a more likely candidate than Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt.Click here for the full story12:24Dave Burke'Boris Johnson will always be the man who let bodies pile high and partied'Families who lost loved ones to coronavirus and were "ripped apart" by Boris Johnson's actions will not be able to move on following his resignation, a campaign group said.The Covid-19 Bereaved Families For Justice group said Mr Johnson will be remembered as a prime minister who failed to act when coronavirus first started spreading through the country, allowed hospitals to be overwhelmed, and left care homes defenceless.On Thursday, the PM finally announced he would step down following dozens of resignations - a mass exodus triggered by the departures of Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid from the Cabinet.It follows a series of political scandals, including months of lockdown breach accusations, with bereaved families repeatedly calling for Mr Johnson to quit.The final report by senior civil servant Sue Gray into partygate blamed "failures of leadership and judgment" for allowing alcohol-fuelled gatherings in Downing Street when millions of people across the country were unable to see friends and family or say their goodbyes.Lobby Akinnola, whose father Olufemi Akinnola died with coronavirus in April 2020 aged 60, said Mr Johnson's reign may be ending shortly but "his devastating impact on families like mine will not".A spokesman for the bereaved families group said: "Whilst Johnson will move on to a life of writing newspaper columns and being paid eye-watering amounts to give after-dinner speeches, there will be no moving on for the families like mine that have been ripped apart by his actions."For us, Johnson will always be the man that wanted to 'let the bodies pile high' whilst our loved ones desperately fought for their lives and that partied whilst we had to say goodbye to our loved ones over a screen."Lobby Akinnola (second from left) holding a picture of his father, alongside the families of other Covid victims (Image:Jonathan Buckmaster)12:17Dave BurkeNew Northern Ireland secretary announced as PM tries to plug gaps in governmentAnother appointment as Boris Johnson desperately tries to plug the gaps after a spate of resignation.Downing Street has now announced that Shailesh Vara has been appointed Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.Shailesh Vara MP @ShaileshVara has been appointed Secretary of State for Northern Ireland @NIOgov. pic.twitter.com/s0SR4Z8COd— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) July 7, 2022 11:59Aletha AduNew Secretary of State for WalesSir Robert Buckland has been appointed Secretary of State for Wales. It comes as desperate Boris Johnson has kicked off appointing new ministers to his Cabinet as he strives to cling on as a caretaker Prime Minister.Mr Johnson is literally fighting for his political life as a striking 59 ministers have dramatically quit - expressing their lack of confidence in his leadership.Read more here11:55Rachel WearmouthKeir Starmer threatens no confidence vote in Boris Johnson if the PM tries to 'cling on'Keir Starmer has threatened to table a motion of no confidence in Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister tries to "cling on" to power for months to come.Westminster is braced for the PM to announce he will quit after a flood of resignations drained his premiership of all authority this week.But rumour is rife that beleaguered Mr Johnson will want to stay on as caretaker PM while a Tory leadership contest takes place to decide his replacement.The Labour leader told Sky News that the PM not be allowed to linger in office and must be removed immediately.He threatened to use a Commons vote of no confidence procedure to attempt to oust the Prime Minister unless he hands over the reins to another premier.“He needs to go completely. None of this nonsense about clinging on for a few months,"he said.“He’s inflicted lies, fraud and chaos in the country.“We’re stuck with a government which isn’t functioning in the middle of a cost of living crisis.“And all of those that have been propping him up should be utterly ashamed of themselves.”Read more hereKeir Starmer said Boris Johnson 'inflicted lies, fraud and chaos in the country' (Image:Sky News)11:53Alahna KindredNew Education SecretaryJames Cleverly has been announced as Secretary of State for Education following Michelle Donelan's resignation this morning.Mr Cleverly was spotted entering Downing Street through the back and carrying a box of doughnuts.Ms Donelan resigned about 36 hours after she was appointed by Boris Johnson following Nadhim Zahawi's appointment to Chancellor.She told Mr Johnson "I can see no way that you can continue in post" but without a formal mechanism to remove him the Cabinet must "force your hand".11:48Dave BurkeMr Johnson's former mistress 'feels sorry' for himBoris Johnson's former mistress says she "feels sorry" for the outgoing Prime Minister - just days after she likened him to Vladimir Putin.Petronella Wyatt tweeted today that politics is a "nasty game" after Mr Johnson finally accepted that the game is up.The journalist, who he had an affair with between 2000 and 2004, wrote: "Politics is a very nasty game. I can’t help but feel sorry for Boris now."She had previously written off any chances of Mr Johnson walking out from his job, saying it was "as likely as Putin withdrawing (from) Ukraine saying it had all been a terrible mistake"Read more herePetronella Wyatt, pictured with Boris Johnson in 2006, this week likened the PM to Vladimir Putin (Image:Alan Davidson/REX/Shutterstock)11:46Alahna KindredBoris Johnson v No10 staffIt appears there is a stand-off between the Prime Minister and his staff over his resignation statement.It is understood he will deliver the statement in less than two hours.11:35KEY EVENTFirst ministerial appointments announcedGreg Clark, the former Business Secretary under Theresa May, will become the new Levelling Up Cabinet minister.He replaces Michael Gove, who was sacked last night by Boris Johnson. Mr Johnson is expected to resign today.He has still appointed a new cabinet ahead after a series of gaping holes have been left by the scores of ministers that have jumped ship over his leadership.Downing Street has appointed Kit Malthouse as Chancellor for the Duchy of Lancaster, the most senior minister in the Cabinet Office after the Prime Minister.11:28Lizzy BuchanBoris Johnson's legacy Lobby Akinnola, spokesperson for the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice campaign said: "Boris Johnson’s legacy is the deaths of nearly 200,000 British people on his watch. "He will be remembered as the Prime Minister who failed to act when Covid-19 began ripping through the country, who allowed our hospitals to become overwhelmed, left our Care Homes defenceless, and had to put the country in lockdown for nearly a year to salvage the situation."Whilst Johnson will move on to a life of writing newspaper columns and being paid eye-watering amounts to give after-dinner speeches, there will be no moving on for the families like mine that have been ripped apart by his actions. "For us, Johnson will always be the man that wanted to ‘let the bodies pile high’ whilst our loved ones desperately fought for their lives and that partied whilst we had to say goodbye to our loved ones over a screen."Although his reign will shortly be coming to an end, his devastating impact on families like mine will not. We can only hope that the Covid inquiry will bring some closure for us, teaching us the lessons that will save lives in the future and meaning that no one will be able to repeat Johnson’s terrible mistakes and get away with it."11:23William MorganShould there be a snap election? Have your say as Boris Johnson resignsPrime Minister Boris Johnson announced today that he is resigning as leader of his party and stepping down as PM. It comes just two and a half years after winning a massive 80-seat majority in parliament, and 14 million votes from the British public, making Johnson one of the most popular but shortest-lived PMs in political history.Whoever is chosen to succeed Mr Johnson will face one major question as soon as they are picked by Conservative members - what is their electoral mandate to enact the sweeping changes necessary to fix the spiralling cost of living, transition to a green economy, and respond to Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine?The next general election isn't until December 2024.However, with the country facing a personal and public financial crisis, the ongoing pressure on the NHS from coronavirus, and lots of Brexit issues still to be resolved, could there be a worse time for the instability and division that comes with a general election? With Labour beating the Tories in the polls for the last few months, many Conservative MPs will fear the outcome.Let us know your thoughts here11:20Dave BurkeSummer of carnage as Boris Johnson could stay for 3 more monthsThe Prime Minister is poised to announce his resignation today after finally conceding that the game is up.But that doesn't necessarily mean there will be a new incumbent in the lavishly-wallpapered Downing Street flat straight away - as the PM is reportedly determined to stay on as caretaker.A No 10 source said Mr Johnson spoke to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative 1922 Committee, to inform him of his decision."The Prime Minister has spoken to Graham Brady and agreed to stand down in time for a new leader to be in place by the conference in October," a No 10 source said.If he gets his way, he'll preside over a chaotic summer as a Tory leadership contest unfolds.Read more here11:17Alahna KindredMinutes away from ministerial appointments Our Political Editor has said Boris Johnson is planning to appoint new ministers to fill the massive gaps in his team following scores of resignations11:16Alahna KindredMadame Tussauds in London updates its 10 Downing Street displayThe display has a 'VACANCY' sign in anticipation of Boris Johnson’s impending resignation today.The museum also confirmed Boris Johnson's figure will be removed from the Baker Street attraction, at the point he is officially no longer Prime Minister.11:14Lizzy BuchanDominic Cummings doesn't shy away from how he feelsDominic Cummings called on police to "escort him from the building" today.Embittered ex-aide Mr Cummings said letting Mr Johnson stay on as caretaker would cause "carnage" and told the Cabinet to order him to leave today.He tweeted: "Cabinet ministers shd talk to Brady this a.m, agree Raab as interim PM, then speak to Cabinet Secretary and get him to fix with Palace..."Tell [PM] you either resign and leave today or the Queen will dismiss, appoint Raab, & cops escort you from building. [PM] will fold Game over."Read more here11:09Alahna KindredYouGov polls say Ben Wallace could be next leaderA YouGov poll among Tory members has put Defence Secretary Ben Wallace on top in a leadership competition.He beats (at 48%) all the main contenders including Liz Truss (29%).11:06Alahna KindredWho could put their name in to run?Following Boris Johnson's resignation, there is speculation about who will take over.Liz TrussThe foreign secretary is the darling of the ruling Conservative Party's grassroots and has regularly topped polls of party members carried out by the website Conservative Home.Jeremy HuntEarlier this year, he said his ambition to become prime minister "hasn't completely vanished". Hunt said he voted to oust Johnson in a confidence vote last month that the prime minister narrowly won.Ben WallaceDefence minister Ben Wallace, 52, has risen in recent monthsto be the most popular member of the government with Conservative Party members, according to Conservative Home, thanks to his handling of the Ukraine crisis.Rishi Sunak Rishi Sunak was until last year the favourite to succeed Johnson.Sajid JavidHe is a Thatcher admirer and finished fourth in the 2019 leadershipcontest to replace former Prime Minister Theresa May.Nadhim ZahawiZahawi said last week that it would be a "privilege" to be primeminister at some stage.Penny MordauntCurrently a junior trade minister, Mordaunt called the lockdown-breaking parties in government "shameful". She had previously expressed loyalty to Johnson.Tom TugendhatHe has been a regular critic of Johnson and would offer hisparty a clean break with previous governments.However, he is relatively untested because he has neverserved in cabinet.Suella Braverman A Brexit-backing Attorney General, Braverman has indicatedshe will run for the leadership. She was heavily criticised by lawyers during her tenure after the government sought to break international law over post-Brexit trade rules in Northern Ireland.10:49Alahna Kindred'We don't like him'The Kremlin said on Thursday that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson didn't like Russia and that Moscow didn't like him either.Speaking during a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "He doesn't like us, we don't like him either".Peskov said that reports that Johnson would shortly resign as prime minister were of little concern for the Kremlin.10:45Alahna Kindred'We don't have a functioning government'Angela Rayner, Labour Deputy Leader, said Boris Johnson was "always unfit for office".Speaking during today's Urgent Questions, she added that "we don't have a functioning government". She said it was "good news for the country" that Boris Johnson is expected to resign. Asking an urgent question on the functioning of Government in the Commons, Ms Rayner said: "I hate to break it to the minister but we don't have a functioning Government. "It will be good news for the country that the Prime Minister is to announce his resignation. He was always unfit for office. He has overseen scandal, fraud and waste on an industrial scale. "But the chaos of the last three days is more than just petty Tory infighting. These actions have serious consequences for the running of our country. "In the middle of the deepest cost-of-living crisis of a generation, with families unable to make ends meet, a dangerous war in Europe threatening our borders, and a possible trade crisis in Northern Ireland, Britain has no functioning Government."Angela Rayner in the Commons today (Image:Sky News)10:41Lizzy BuchanLiz Truss jetting back to the UKLiz Truss is cutting short her trip to Indonesia and racing back to the UK amid Boris Johnson's resignation announcement.The Foreign Secretary, who was attending a G20 Summit, is due to make a statement shortly, our Deputy Online Political Editor Lizzy Buchan tweeted today.✈️ Liz Truss cutting short her trip to Indonesia and due to make a statement shortlyWhat's a day of drama without a bit of flight radar??— Lizzy Buchan (@LizzyBuchan) July 7, 2022 10:36Liam BucklerThousands set to attend 'Boris Johnson's leaving party' Preparations for the possible departure of the Prime Minister are underway as a Facebook event for 7pm on Friday July has attracted over 2,800 confirmed guests and 12,500 interested party-goers.The public Facebook event, which has been set up by Howie Scarbrough, is asking guests to bring leaving drinks and cake - a tribute to the Partygate saga, one of the many scandals that has engulfed the PM during his leadership.The party, which kicks off at 7pm in central London, will be held outside the current home of Mr Johnson - Number 10 Downing Street - as guests are invited to join from all over the world.And guests have been quick to respond to the leaving event on Facebook as excited party-goers ready themselves for a party outside No 10 - if the PM goes.Read more hereThousands are set to attend 'Boris Johnson's leaving party' as the PM's future hangs in the balance (Image:Facebook)10:33Alahna KindredBoris Johnson and his relationship with the QueenBoris Johnson has been the 14th prime minister of the Queen's reign, and it has been an eventful time for the monarch with him at the helm.He has caused a certain amount of trouble for the nation's longest-reigning sovereign.He succeeded in drawing the Queen into a major constitutional row over the illegal proroguing of Parliament.He twice broke with convention and talked about their private audiences, and publicly apologised to the Queen and the country over events in Downing Street on the eve of the Duke of Edinburgh's funeral.The monarch is politically neutral and acts on the advice of her government in political matters.In 2019, Mr Johnson sparked a major constitutional row during the Queen's summer holidays in August 2019 amid Westminster's bitter Brexit battles after asking her to suspend Parliament for more than a month.The sovereign was duty-bound to hold a Privy Council meeting at Balmoral, her private Scottish estate, where, acting on the advice of the prime minister, she approved an order to temporarily close - or prorogue - Parliament for five weeks.In the end, the Supreme Court ruled that Mr Johnson's advice to the Queen to suspend Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating Parliament.Mr Johnson apologised to the monarch.10:28Alahna KindredTherese Coffey to stay Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey has said she will remain in office to ensure the "wheels of government keep turning".In a statement on Twitter, after it was confirmed that Boris Johnson intends to resign, she said: "I asked to speak to the PM yesterday evening and had still hoped to do so today. I fully understand colleagues' concerns and the very bad situation we are now in."The wheels of government need, though, to keep turning, especially at DWP which helps the most vulnerable in society."DWP needs to be firing on all cylinders to support them, especially with the cost-of-living payment beginning to be paid next week as part of our help for households."10:25Alahna KindredThere is growing alarm from Tory MPs that Boris Johnson might try to stay on until the autumnBoris Johnson is due to deliver his resignation statement today, and for long he will remain afterwards will be dependent on the 1922 Committee.Mr Johnson is said to want to stay on until October, so the party can select a new leader in time for their annual conference. The Energy and Business Secretary has said the country needs a new leader as soon as possible.Kwasi Kwarteng tweeted: "What a depressing state of affairs. So much needless damage was caused. "We now need a new Leader as soon as practicable. Someone who can rebuild trust, heal the country, and set out a new, sensible and consistent economic approach to help families."However, earlier this morning veteran Tory MP and former Brexit Secretary David Davis said he is "not too bothered" about Boris Johnson possibly remaining as Prime Minister until later this year.He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The simple truth, this is going to take a month or two."We're hearing from people who were happy to be in Cabinet one week ago that we have now got to do this in five minutes flat."I'm not too bothered about the idea of Boris staying in place until we've got a new leadership." | United Kingdom Politics |
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MANCHESTER, England — Britain’s most ambitious Conservative politicians are on a mission to charm the party’s grassroots this week. Just don’t call it a leadership bid.
As the ruling Tories gather in Manchester for their annual party conference, projecting a united pre-election message is not the only item on the agenda.
With opinion polls still suggesting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could suffer a shattering defeat at the next general election, the question of who might take his place will be privately occupying some of his more aspiring colleagues.
Party conference has been a litmus test in the past of grassroots support for wannabe leaders — and with a general election expected next spring or next fall, this could be the last before voters deliver their verdict on Sunak.
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POLITICO spoke to Conservative advisers and ministers past and present, some of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics, in a bid to take the temperature.
Here we go again
The Tories have been here before. Boris Johnson drew huge crowds for a speech on the conference fringes in 2018 at the height of the party’s Brexit wars. Less than a year later, he had replaced Theresa May as prime minister.
“You’re going to have three or four people basically setting out leadership stalls at conference,” one former minister groaned.
An adviser to a serving Cabinet minister admitted they had been busy inserting lines into their boss’ party conference speech in a bid to burnish their right-wing credentials.
But much of the action is likely to be happening below the radar. Party conference is an “important moment” for “in the margins meetings” to gauge the support of influential people such as newspaper editors, one former adviser to a previous Tory leadership candidate said.
Making your ambition too apparent is fraught with risk, however, the same person warned. “You have to be careful not to draw too much attention to yourself as it becomes obvious you want a shot at the top.”
“This would be a really stupid moment to do it because you don’t know the lie of the land yet. Rishi is still prime minister, and can make life very difficult, and even if he doesn’t, there are enough people in No. 10 that can get very bitter and very petty,” a second former adviser to a previous Conservative leadership candidate said.
A Conservative MP loyal to Sunak made clear they would also be unimpressed with any perceived leadership maneuverings. “It’s always nice for the backing singers to have a little chance to shine during the show,” they said. “But they have to remember — they’re the backing singers.”
Leadership hopefuls may have to wait a bit longer for their moment in the spotlight, with Sunak reportedly telling friends he has not ruled out staying on as caretaker even if the Tories lose the next election.
Charming the right
It is a rare MP who openly admits to harboring leadership ambitions — but accepting a party conference invitation can often set tongues wagging.
Former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ runaway success in the 2022 Conservative leadership contest, after carefully courting the free-market right of her party, has put the pitch for that caucus into the spotlight, even after Truss’ chaotic fall from grace.
On Sunday, Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who stood for leader last year, was the star attraction at a joint Institute for Economic Affairs and Taxpayer Alliance drinks — two of the think tanks Truss was most closely associated with.
Allies of Badenoch have repeatedly dismissed reports she is laying the groundwork for another tilt at the top job, but speculation about her future will not be damped down by a Sunday Times interview in which she hits right-wing talking points such as the cost of net zero and the prospect of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Meanwhile, outside the secure zone, Home Secretary Priti Patel, who has flirted with the idea of running in the past, was headliner at the Conservative Democratic Organisation’s glitzy black tie dinner in central Manchester, also on Sunday night. The group’s president, Conservative donor Peter Cruddas, has been scathing of Sunak’s leadership and has been campaigning to give grassroots members more power.
Current Home Secretary Suella Braverman, fresh from a trip to Washington where she delivered a speech calling on world leaders to rip up the 70-year-old U.N. Refugee Convention and introduce a migration regime “fit for our modern age,” will on Tuesday be the star attraction at the Common Sense Group, and Blue Collar Conservatives reception, hosted by the Daily Express newspaper. The group counts a number of the party’s most vocal right-wing MPs among its number.
Former Brexit negotiator David Frost, currently a Conservative peer vying to become an elected MP, has a packed conference schedule, and will be appearing at events hosted by the biggest right-leaning think tanks including the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA), the Legatum Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) and Policy Exchange, where he is a senior fellow.
Taking the center
If a leadership contest does roll around after the general election, the picture in the party may look very different, veteran Conservatives caution.
With such poor poll ratings, “large numbers of MPs who might think that they either wanted to be a candidate, or [are] backing a certain horse, will have to concentrate on getting themselves re-elected first,” says Tory peer and polling expert Robert Hayward.
“If the general election throws up the fact that centrist Tory [voters] all turned on you in their droves then courting the IEA looks pretty stupid,” the second adviser quoted above added.
As leader of the House of Commons, a relatively obscure ministerial role, Penny Mordaunt will not get star billing on the main stage. But she draws a dedicated centrist-Tory fanbase wherever she goes. This year she will be speaking at a late night event with the “Next Gen Tories” in the Midland Hotel.
Mordaunt ran in both of last year’s Tory leadership contests, earning support from the center of the party. But she is among the potential leadership contenders facing a threat to her own place in the House of Commons if the Conservatives do not jump ahead in the polls. Her Portsmouth North seat — unchanged in a review of Britain’s constituency boundaries — has a healthy 15,780 majority but was held by Labour under Tony Blair.
She has not given up her leadership hopes yet, buoyed by her brush with international fame at King Charles’ coronation, according to an aide from her 2022 campaign.
Beyond the front line
With 11 Tory candidates launching leadership bids in 2022 alone, expectations are high that it could be another crowded field when the time comes to replace Sunak. A second former minister predicted there could be as many as 20 people who now think they have what it takes.
A flurry of social media posts by ex-Justice Secretary Brandon Lewis raised eyebrows among colleagues, though the second former minister was not completely dismissive, saying of Lewis: “He’s not tainted by everything that’s come before.”
Lewis, a former housing minister who has been a champion of more housebuilding, is speaking at three fringe events about housing and Britain’s restrictive green belt planning rules.
Even with a wide field, some Conservative colleagues predict they’ll be left cold by what’s on offer from a party that’s cycled through five prime ministers in eight years.
“There are no big beasts any more, like Callaghan, Heseltine, Geoffrey Howe,” a serving minister lamented. “Thatcher was in since the 1950s and now you have people who’ve just arrived saying within two minutes, ‘I could be leader.'” | United Kingdom Politics |
As voters headed to the polls on the morning of 1 May 1997, Tony Blair turned to his old friend Charlie Falconer and asked an unexpected question.
“On the day of the election itself he asked me if he thought he’d get back to the bar – and he didn’t mean the licensed bar, he meant the legal bar,” Falconer recalls 27 years later. Unconvinced by predictions of the Labour landslide to come, the party leader wanted to know whether he might be able to return to his old career as a barrister.
“I don’t think anybody felt … certainly not on the day of the election itself, that we’re going to lose – except for Tony, who just couldn’t believe what was about to happen.”
Falconer was speaking to the Guardian as part of an in-depth look back at 1996, focusing on what Labour did in the year before its landslide victory and asking whether today’s Labour party can replicate that success. A two-part Guardian Today in Focus podcast series will be broadcast next Monday and Tuesday.
Key figures from the time tell a tale of paranoia, frenetic activity, frequent infighting and, finally, overwhelming relief, as one of the most pivotal years in British politics played out.
Several also said that Keir Starmer, the current Labour leader, risked learning the wrong lessons from 1997 by being too cautious, arguing that Blair was more radical in his policy approach than many remember.
David Miliband, Blair’s head of policy at the time, says: “We were having to reinforce our commitment to the electorate that we wouldn’t be a risk for them, but we were also having to give them a sense of hope and change. In that sense, we needed to be radical as well as credible.”
Reassurance, reassurance, reassurance
By early 1996, Blair had been Labour leader for 18 months. During that time he had stamped his authority over the party, most notably by forcing through changes to clause IV of the party’s constitution to remove references to nationalisation.
Blair’s shift away from traditional socialism had paid dividends. The party was 26 points ahead in the polls, while Blair himself had an approval rating of plus-22.
But still voters were unsure. In 1995 the American pollster Stan Greenberg wrote a memo warning: “‘Change’ voters are turning to Labour, not because of Labour, but because of their disaffection with the Tories. Our main task is to make sure that this is as easy a choice as possible.”
So the party entered 1996 with a mantra: “reassurance, reassurance, reassurance”. Blair and Brown agreed they must constantly reassure the public that this was not old Labour; they did not intend to raise taxes and public spending once in office.
The approach mirrors that being taken today by Starmer, who has spent much of 2023 changing or junking potentially controversial policies, from delaying the £28bn green prosperity fund to overturning the promise to end university tuition fees.
Those who were around in 1996, however, say there were two main differences between then and now.
First, Blair’s project was the culmination of more than two decades of work. His two immediate predecessors, Neil Kinnock and John Smith, had done much of the policy formation that Blair enacted once in government, including the pledge to introduce a minimum wage and the promise to cut class sizes in primary schools to below 30.
Liam Byrne, who helped Labour reorganise its headquarters in 1996 and is now a Labour MP, says: “Starmer is trying to do in five years what Neil Kinnock, John Smith, Tony Blair did over many years.”
Second, Blair was heading into an election after a period of sustained growth: the economy had not shrunk in a single quarter for nearly five years. That allowed him to promise to keep taxes low while still being able to spend the proceeds of growth. By contrast, Britain is still recovering from the Covid pandemic, and the economy shrank by 0.5% in July amid strikes and poor weather.
Falconer says: “In 1996/1997 the economy wasn’t the issue. Today, though, you have got to have some convincing explanation about what you’re going to do differently to the economy from the Conservative party.”
The manifesto takes shape
While Blair embarked on his year reassuring the British public, many of those around him engaged in a period of rapid policy formation as they honed what would become the 1997 manifesto.
Miliband says: “Tony gave me a very clear instruction when he hired me in June 1994. He said: ‘Look, you’ve got to get rid of the policies that are going to lose us votes.’ He called that ‘bomb disposal’.”
Bomb disposal was not always easy. Arguments were common and Blair and Gordon Brown, the shadow chancellor, frequently clashed over the policy detail.
Brown wanted to create a Scottish parliament, Blair was adamant there should be a referendum first. Blair wanted a clear commitment to join the euro, Brown wanted to make sure it was tied down with preconditions. They even fought over how many pledges there should be on the pledge card, with Brown arguing five would be too limiting.
Peter Mandelson, who was campaign coordinator, says: “They would be up all night, they were hammering away, drilling down. I don’t think anyone in politics these days has any real sense of how hard everything was … People in politics today sometimes feel it all looked so simple in Blair’s day. But it wasn’t.”
Alastair Campbell, Blair’s press secretary, adds: “Going through my diaries, it’s a form of PTSD reliving all the different rows that we had, most of which, thank God, I’d forgotten. It wasn’t deliberate, creating conflict, but the conflict just seemed to spill out there.”
At that point, however, there was little of the personal animosity that was later to poison the relationship between Brown and Blair.
Harriet Harman, who was shadow social security secretary at the time, says: “If you were ever in a room with Tony, you would always be interrupted by: ‘Oh, I’ve got Gordon calling.’ And then if you’re having a meeting with Gordon, you’d always be interrupted by Gordon saying: ‘I’m going to ring Tony and see what he thinks about that.’”
The stormy policy debates also had a purpose. Those around Blair knew that they had to have something positive to say to voters when it came to the election; simply not being the Tories would not be enough.
Campbell sums it up as “reassurance alongside the promise of radical change”.
They also believed that if they won, it would be with a small majority, and they would need to legislate quickly before losing a grip on the political agenda.
“If we were ever to win this election, we had to be so out of the traps at speed and be able to govern,” says Falconer. “The best we could hope for probably was some wafer-thin victory, and so what was going to happen when we won was absolutely vital.”
Education, education, education
Labour members gathered in Blackpool in late September 1996 for the party’s last conference before the election. England had hosted the Euros that summer; the Spice Girls were conquering the US; Oasis and Blur were making British rock relevant again. The country was in an optimistic mood, and so was the party.
Members knew that for the first time in years, what happened at Labour conference was of national, and even international, significance. Those attending included representatives from Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Falconer says: “It was absolutely electrifying. By the time we get to 1996, the world is absolutely focused on Labour. Everybody assumes – except Tony Blair – that we’re going to win the election. Foreign dignitaries are coming to kiss his ring at that particular point.”
Blair and his aides, however, were desperate not to look triumphalist. “There was an absolute horror and fear of looking like we were arrogant and that we thought we’d already won the election,” says Harman. “There was a load of mythology around the Sheffield rally ahead of 92 [when Labour threw what looked like a victory rally ahead of the actual election, before going on to lose].”
They need not have worried. Blair’s speech, with its soundbites of “Labour’s coming home” and “education, education, education” were rapturously received in the hall and elsewhere, and the party received a modest bump in the polls afterwards.
It was time for the final push.
The Sun backs Blair
The 1997 election got off to the perfect start for Blair.
At 11.30am on 17 March, John Major went to Buckingham Palace to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament before the election. Hours later, on the other side of London, the Sun’s printing presses cranked into action emblazoned with a now famous headline: The Sun Backs Blair.
Blair and his aides were delighted. They had been working for years to secure the backing of the Murdoch press, including a controversial visit to the media mogul in Australia in 1995.
Campbell admits: “I didn’t feel terribly comfortable about some of the things we had to do to keep the Murdoch press broadly on board. But I remember Tony saying that if you’ve got a dog in the corner, and you’re worried it might have rabies, you want to keep it in the corner.”
The Sun’s front page set the tone for much of the campaign to come. Everywhere Labour campaigners went, they were greeted with euphoria.
“It was absolutely phenomenal,” says Harman. “All you had to do is put on a Labour rosette, get off a train at some station at what was regarded as a marginal seat, and people would come up to you in the street and say: ‘We’re voting for Tony Blair.’”
The Labour campaign went so well, in fact, that officials even had time to invent significant new policy announcements in the middle of it.
“Suddenly we realised we had space on the grid,” says Miliband. “What’s more, the proceeds of the millennium lottery had not been allocated. So we suddenly thought, right, what are we going to spend this on?”
Miliband’s answer was to create a new body called the National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts. Nesta, as it is now known, still exists 27 years later as an innovation-focused thinktank – one of the Blair government’s legacies.
Nevertheless, nobody foresaw the scale of the victory to come. Harman recalled flying down to campaign for Candy Atherton, a Labour candidate in Cornwall, along with several other MPs.
“We sat on the plane and suddenly there was terrible turbulence and we were tossed around,” she says. “There were about 12 Labour MPs on it. We were like, God, this was not such a good idea. If this plane goes down, we could lose our majority.”
A new dawn
To the relief of Labour officials, 1 May 1997 began with warm and dry weather: ideal for maximising turnout. However, the queues that built outside polling stations during the day indicated something bigger was happening.
“People were out in droves queueing to vote,” says Harman. “One person came rushing up to me and said: ‘How do I vote for Tony Blair?’ And I said: ‘Well, actually, you vote for Tony Blair by putting your cross against Harriet Harman.’”
Blair himself was holed up in Myrobella, his large constituency home outside Sedgefield, for much of the day. Campbell, who had stayed the previous night, remembers realising that morning they were on the brink of something historic.
“John Burton, Tony’s constituency agent, arrived, and he came in and turned the radio on, and it was tuned to Radio 4 – the Today programme,” Campbell says. “I said: ‘God, John, I can’t listen to this stuff any more.’ I started twiddling the knobs to try to find the music station. And I found that local music station, and they were playing Abba, Winner Takes It All. And I turned to John and said: ‘I think we’ve won.’”
Nothing was clear, however, until 10pm, when the BBC broadcast the results of its exit poll. “Tony Blair is to be prime minister and a landslide is likely,” David Dimbleby told the nation.
As the results began to come in, party officials were astonished by the seats they were winning.
Mandelson, having won his seat of Hartlepool, flew down to London with the writer Robert Harris in a small aeroplane hired by the Sunday Times, for whom Harris was writing a feature. The plane flew low enough for the pair to pick up Radio 4 so they could listen to the results coming in.
“As we flew down the spine of England, we had seats dropping like nine pins into Labour’s lap on our left and our right,” he says. “We were in the east Midlands, we were in the West Midlands, we were going down towards the home counties, we went to north London. It was unbelievable the number of seats [we won], many of which had never featured on any target list I had been playing around with.”
Even as it became clear they had won a landslide victory, however, party aides were still sweating over the details. Blair was due to open a speech at the Royal Festival Hall in the morning with the line: “A new dawn has broken.” But what if the weather was bad and no one could see the dawn breaking?
“Just as we got to the Festival Hall, the sun comes out,” says Miliband. “It was amazing – pretty special.”
Lessons for Starmer
Nobody involved in today’s Labour party expects a repeat of 1997’s scenes.
Starmer believes the public has grown tired of politicians with grand visions, and would rather elect someone managerial who can reduce the drama in British politics. And he acknowledges the economic backdrop to this election means that much of what the party did in 1997 is no longer possible.
“The mood in 97 was one of optimism,” he told the BBC’s Nick Robinson last week. “The economy was growing, our services, public services weren’t on their knees and we were turning into a new century, which always gives this sort of human sense of hope.
“It chimed with the times, but it wouldn’t now. And it’s a big mistake to misread the mood of the country at the moment.”
Many of those close to Blair, however, believe Starmer is in danger of offering Blair’s reassurance but without the radical policy platform that came with it. Some argue today’s economic insecurity is a reason to be bolder with policy proposals, not more timid.
Miliband says: “You have to reboot the economic, social and political bargain, which is really the challenge that the country faces now.”
Campbell says: “Starmer has done an amazing job to get from where Labour were in 2019 – where the argument was: can Labour ever win again? – to the argument now being: How can Labour lose this?’
“But at the same time, I sometimes worry that along with the paranoia that we had, we also had alongside it an absolute determination to be making the weather all the time.”
He adds: “A defensive crouch is fine as a defensive crouch to pull the pins out of the hand grenades, to make sure the campaign is run on your terms. But then it’s: Right, what are those terms, what are those things you want to drive your campaign? And that’s the bit I think Labour need to do more on, not less.” | United Kingdom Politics |
CAPE TOWN, South Africa -- South African authorities were seeking answers Monday after 21 underage teenagers reportedly celebrating the end of school exams died in a mysterious incident at a nightclub. The bodies of many of the victims, the youngest just 13, were discovered by police lying on tables, slumped over chairs and sprawled on the floor of the club in the early hours of Sunday morning.Police spokeswoman Col. Athlenda Mathe said the investigation into the deaths at the Enyobeni Tavern in the city of East London in Eastern Cape province was ongoing and no cause of the deaths had yet been established.But Police Minister Bheki Cele said forensic samples taken from the victims were being sent to a toxicology laboratory in Cape Town, indicating that police were investigating whether the victims had ingested a poison or toxin. Cele said the toxicology tests might take "a lot of time."Provincial safety official Unathi Binqose told the Daily Maverick newspaper that the victims may have ingested a toxic substance through alcohol they were drinking or through hookah pipes, which were being smoked at the party. Initial reports speculated that the teenagers may have died in a stampede because of overcrowding at the party, but authorities found no visible signs of injuries on the bodies.Police said they were called to the nightclub at around 4 a.m. Sunday morning after receiving a report that there were "lifeless bodies" there. Officers responding to the call walked in on a grim scene: 17 teenagers were found dead on the spot. Two more died at a local clinic, one died on the way to the hospital and one at the hospital. Their ages were between 13 and 17, police said.The teenagers were reportedly celebrating the end of mid-year exams, a local DJ's birthday and the relaxing of COVID-19 restrictions in South Africa, which was announced earlier in the week.Parents were asked to come to a mortuary to identify their children.Police Minister Cele visited the nightclub and the mortuary on Sunday and choked back tears as he spoke to reporters outside the mortuary."The scene I have seen here inside, it doesn't matter what kind of a heart you have," Cele said. "Firstly, the sight of those bodies sleeping there. But when you look at their faces you realize that you're dealing with kids, kids, kids.""You've heard the story that they are young but when you see them you realize that it's a disaster. Twenty-one of them. Too many."South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is in Germany for the G7 summit, offered condolences to the families of the victims in a statement but also said he was concerned why "such young people were gathered at a venue which, on the face of it, should be off limits to persons under the age of 18."It's illegal for anyone under 18 to consume alcohol in South Africa and residents and community leaders have called for the nightclub to be shut down. The tragedy will put renewed scrutiny on the many bars and nightclubs operating in poor neighborhoods in South Africa and which are often criticized for not abiding by liquor laws. Copyright © 2022 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. | Africa politics |
Subsets and Splits