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India’s foreign currency reserves are depleting fast.Looking to protect the rupee from falling sharply, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has deployed $82.8 billion (6.59 lakh crore rupees) from its forex reserves in 2022 so far. In September alone, it sold $10 billion (pdf). The central bank intervened heavily in August as well, traders said.India’s forex reserves stood at $550.8 billion as of Sept. 09, compared with an all-time high of $642.4 billion last year.Having registered a series of record lows this year, the rupee has lost nearly 6% against the dollar due to weak risk sentiment amid the Russia-Ukraine war, and global monetary policy tightening. Despite this, the rupee performed better than the rest of its Asian peers.Maintaining the rupee’s stabilityIn 2013, the RBI sold a net of $14 billion in the June-September period as the US pulled back monetary support to its economy, denting emerging market currencies like the rupee.The steady buildup of India’s forex reserves since then has helped RBI withstand global shocks better. “The starting point of India’s foreign reserves was at a much higher level in this cycle...providing a much thicker cushion to withstand global volatility/shocks,” Radhika Rao, a senior economist at DBS Bank, told Reuters.However, the RBI must also watch itself.The reserve could now cover about nine months of imports—the benchmark being three months. Last year, it stood at 16 months. “Falling forex reserves, persistently-high commodity prices, limited exchange rate pass-through to inflation and elevated INR valuations will likely tilt the balance towards a less interventionist FX policy in coming months,” Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said in a note. Apart from dollar sales, the country’s forex reserve dwindled also due to relative weakness against the greenback in other major currencies like the euro and yen and a lower valuation of dollar-denominated securities held by RBI. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
As global economic risks rise, the US Dollar is positioned to benefit as the global safe-haven.The US Dollar also has a rate advantage as the US central bank has and will likely continue to be the leader amongst global central banks during this tightening cycle.There's no evidence yet that the USD bullish trend is yet at its end. At this point the bullish trend in the US Dollar is sixteen months old. DXY was finding support around the 90 handles in May of 2021 and as we head into Q4, at the time of this writing, the greenback is trading above the 113 level for the first time since 2002.I’m keeping the technical forecast on the US Dollar to bullish as there’s no end in sight yet for this trend. I do hope that it finds resistance in Q4, at some point, as this level of instability is unlikely to bear much long-term positivity for western capitalism. And with a continued surge in the US Dollar comes a host of other risks, such as more inflation for Europe or the UK at a time when they can ill-afford such a scenario.There’s the rate dynamic that keeps matters bullish for the USD; but now there’s also the risk aversion aspect. And investors have the opportunity to not only track one of the highest yielding currencies in the world – but also one of the ‘safest’ currencies as we are in the peculiar situation where the flight-to-quality also correlates with the highest yielder.So, while I hope that we see an element of capitulation in Q4, for the sake of the global economy, I simply do not see evidence of such and thusly am keeping the technical forecast to bullish.From the monthly chart below, we can see a trend that’s been increasing in strength. Perhaps the most disconcerting part of this chart is that the downtrend from 2002 to 2008 saw 41% shed from the Dollar’s value – but this was due to the Euro coming online. It was the first time that the USD had competition from a supranational currency, and this was the European project gaining global acceptance.All of that has now been flipped and the 120 spot that provided resistance in 2002 doesn’t seem like a far-out possibility.US Dollar Index (DXY) – Monthly Timeframe (1987 to Present)Source: TradingView; Prepared by James StanleyUSD: Trading ParabolasAs I’m writing this the US Dollar has just jumped up to another fresh 20-year-high. As a rule, I generally avoid chasing markets especially one that’s already stretched. But when writing a quarterly forecast, it’s important to remember that there are three full months remaining behind that forecast and a bit of projection is going to be required.But, overbought doesn’t mean that prices can’t go up any longer and if anything, that reason for creation of the overbought situation can continue to drive. The weekly chart of the US Dollar looks parabolic at this point. And the bullish trend is not new as it has simply continued to heat up since I looked at that support at the 90.00 handle on DXY in the Q3 technical forecast in 2021.There’s support potential around the 110 level should a pullback show. The resistance side is a bit trickier to work with given the dearth of recent history, but levels such as 115.00 or 117.50 remain relevant, as buyers pushing the greenback to fresh highs might find a bit of turbulence or pause at those psychological levels, similar to what showed around the 110.00 level during Q3, albeit briefly.Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Timeframe (June 2016- Present)Source: TradingView; Prepared by James StanleyQ4 2022 Forecast for the US Dollar: BullishI’m keeping the technical forecast for the US Dollar as bullish for Q4. There’s still no sign that the trend is over, and now we have the scenario where the safe haven and flight to quality currency is also one of the highest yielding, so there’s no clear end in sight just yet and this is illustrated well in the above charts. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
India Plans To Open Logistics Hub For Indian Companies In Panama: EAM Jaishankar
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar arrived in Panama on Monday from Guyana. He called on President Nito Cortizo and conveyed the personal greetings of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to him.
India is exploring the possibility of opening a logistics hub for Indian companies in Panama, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said, asserting that the country's trade with Latin America is growing and nearing $50 billion.
The minister arrived in Panama on Monday from Guyana. He called on President Nito Cortizo and conveyed the personal greetings of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to him.
"His strong resonance with PM Modi’s "Panch Prann" reflects the strength of our Global South bonds and shared outlook for the world. Valued his guidance for advancing our bilateral and multilateral partnership," Jaishankar tweeted.
Cortizo said that during their meeting, they talked about the will to make an alliance with the Indian pharmaceutical industry to achieve quality, effective, and cheaper medicines for Panamanians.
"We address the commercial exchange between Panama and India and the advantages that our country offers for the establishment of more companies; also about the opportunities for cooperation, and our interest in developing a centre of technological excellence and innovation," he tweeted.
Jaishankar also met his counterpart, Janaina Tewaney Mencomo, and discussed ways to strengthen the bilateral relationship. They later addressed the media.
"Much of the talks were devoted to how to deepen our friendship and how to expand our cooperation. Among the specific issues we discussed were those pertaining to trade and investment and the possibilities of exploring a logistics hub here for Indian companies," Jaishankar said.
He said they deliberated on the challenges of affordable health from more decentralised production of medicines around the world, including in this region, and discussed possibilities in energy and renewables.
He said the new India and the new Panama will work together in the contemporary era.
"It fills me with joy to receive my counterpart, @DrSJaishankar, at the Bolívar Palace. Accompanied by a high-level delegation from the National Government, we share the progress and potential of our country as an energy and logistics hub and as a strategic business and investment point," Mencomo tweeted.
Panama has positioned itself as a major logistics hub in Latin America.
Mencomo said her meeting with Jaishankar was an opportunity to discuss the issues on the common agenda and strengthen the bilateral relationship based on shared values.
"It was a pleasure to welcome all the participants of the LAC-India Business Forum, an initiative that promotes the development and economic dynamism between our region and the fifth largest economy in the world. We promote Panama as a strategic point for trade and investment," she tweeted.
Jaishankar also delivered the keynote address at the India-Latin America business event here on Monday.
In his address, he chalked out ten reasons why India’s business collaboration with Latin America has strong merits and endeavours.
"Nearing $50 billion, India-Latin America trade has a much diversified basket. Significant increase in investments and interest in mining, energy, agro, and infrastructure sectors will power it further," he said.
The minister said that as the fifth-largest economy, India’s presence across the world is steadily growing, with transformations in manufacturing, infrastructure, innovation, and start-up culture within the country being game-changers.
Jaishankar said that by providing vaccines to 100 countries and medicines to 150 countries, India’s description as the "Pharmacy of the World" is welcomed by all.
The long-awaited reforms in India have led to record Indian exports, he said, even as he hailed Latin America as an attractive market.
A robust digital backbone in India allows the delivery of public goods and tools for business, he said.
Manufacturing pickup via production-linked incentives and support to vendor chains and micro, small, and medium enterprises. Indian products are a natural fit for the Latin American middle class, Jaishankar said.
Indian project execution has grown across geographies, and Made in India and delivered by India are globally becoming realities, he said.
Indian agriculture is making strides in yields, quality, and technology. This has external implications, he said.
"Indian talent and skills consider the world as a workplace today. Initiatives like Skill India, Startup India, and the new education policy are a part of this mosaic," he added.
Jaishankar also met Indian-origin members of the National Civil Protection System in Panama.
After his visit to Panama, Jaishankar will visit Colombia, where he will be meeting several top leaders of the country and reviewing bilateral ties with his Colombian counterpart, Alvaro Leyva Duran.
On Monday, Jaishankar joined President of Guyana Irfaan Ali at the commissioning of an India-made ferry that would enhance connectivity and provide mobility and economic opportunities in the country's distant hinterlands.
Jaishankar is on a nine-day trip to Guyana, Panama, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic, his first visit as the external affairs minister to these Latin American countries and the Caribbean. | Latin America Economy |
BENGALURU, Oct 7 (Reuters) - India's rupee will trade near its record low against the mighty greenback beyond this year, buffeted by rising oil prices and an aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve rate-hiking campaign, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists.Steamrolled by the Fed-pumped dollar, the rupee has fallen over 10% this year and reached an all time low of 82.22/$ on Thursday, even though the Reserve Bank of India continues to sell its forex reserves to defend the local currency.While it found brief respite after the RBI delivered its fourth consecutive interest rate hike last week, a widening trade deficit driven by rising oil prices and a slowdown in exports have dragged the rupee down.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThat downward trend is unlikely to reverse anytime soon, according to the Oct. 3-6 Reuters poll of 40 FX analysts which showed the three month median forecast for the currency at 82.00/$, near where it was trading on Thursday.But the median view of 19 analysts who answered a separate question showed the rupee would fall as low as 83.00/$ before year-end. Forecasts ranged between 82.00-84.00/$.The rupee was then expected to recover just about 0.7% to trade around 81.30/$ in 6 months and 80.50/$ in 12 months, still not far from its record low. That lines up with expectations in a wider poll for the dollar's dominance to continue beyond 2022.Although the median consensus showed a marginal recovery in six months, about 25% of strategists, 10 of 39, forecast the partially-convertible rupee to touch 82.5/$ and beyond. None predicted that in a September poll.Asked what was the best approach to strengthen emerging market currencies against the dollar over the coming six months, around 40% analysts, 18 of 45, said central banks needed to hike interest rates more aggressively. Slightly under one-third said there was nothing that could be done.Just over 10% of economists suggested central banks should continue selling their dollar reserves.The RBI has already spent nearly $100 billion of its previous $642 billion pot of dollar reserves and was expected to deplete it to $523 billion by end-2022 to prop up the rupee, a separate Reuters poll showed."With FX reserves slowly being run down and dollar strength causing the rupee to go past 80.00/$, FX reserves will be used as "sand in the wheels" to slow the pace of exchange rate movements, rather than protecting any levels," said Sajjid Chinoy, chief India economist at J.P. Morgan."The response to global pressures – so far borne largely by FX reserves – will, from now on, be more equitably shared between reserves and interest rates."(For other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Arsh Tushar Mogre and Devayani Sathyan; Polling by Anant Chandak and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
Australia’s Victoria Pulls Out Of Hosting Commonwealth Games
The price of hosting the event would be more than twice the economic benefit that it would generate, the Victoria government said.
(Bloomberg) -- The Australian state of Victoria has pulled out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games after cost estimates blew out by billions of dollars in just a few months.
The price of hosting the event would be more than twice the economic benefit that it would generate, the Victoria government said in a statement Tuesday. The state, which is home to the city of Melbourne, only secured the bid to host the four-yearly event in April.
“What’s become clear is the cost of hosting those games in 2026 is not the A$2.6 billion ($1.8 billion) that was indicated,” Premier Daniel Andrews told reporters in Melbourne. “It is in fact at least A$6 billion and could be as high as A$7 billion, and I can’t stand here and say I have any confidence that would adequately fund these games.”
The Commonwealth Games, which started in 1930, have only been canceled previously during World War II. Andrews said his government aimed to reach a “reasonable” cost settlement for breaking the contract so that an alternative host city could be found. The leader of Victoria’s main opposition Liberal party called the u-turn a “humiliation” in a tweet:
Victoria has become mired in debt after borrowing massive amounts for infrastructure projects and then grappling with the fallout from the pandemic, when Melbourne became one of the world’s most locked down cities. The state’s net debt is forecast to surge by almost A$40 billion to about A$170 billion over the next four years.
The scrapping of the Games comes as the cost of issuing new debt skyrockets. The yield on Victorian government 3-year debt has climbed to 4.22% from 2.66% when it was awarded the event. That could add about an extra A$150 million in servicing costs for each A$1 billion of debt issued, based on secondary market pricing.
Andrews said the money marked for the Games would instead be spent on a regional package, which includes upgrading sports facilities, and also announced more money to build social and affordable housing. The hosting duties were to be shared across the regional cities of Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat and Shepparton, as well as in the Gippsland region in the state’s east.
“Last year when the Commonwealth Games authorities approached us and needed someone to step in and host the 2026 games, we were happy to help out, but not at any price and only if there was lasting benefit,” Andrews said.
The London-based Commonwealth Games Federation did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment sent outside usual office hours.
--With assistance from David Stringer, Matthew Burgess and Garfield Reynolds.
(Updates with budget details from 5th paragraph)
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | Australia Business & Economics |
SummaryCompaniesCentral bank wants lira deposits at least 50% of totalSecurities maintenance ratio lifted to 5% from 3%Banks most hold further 80-100 bln lira of bonds - bankersBond yields fall, lira holds steadyANKARA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank took fresh steps on Tuesday to boost lira deposits, raising the ratio of bonds that banks must hold for foreign exchange deposits and requiring those with less than 50% lira deposits to hold even more bonds from 2023.The central bank raised the securities maintenance ratio required for foreign exchange (forex) deposits to 5% from 3% of deposits as of this month, and said further steps would be taken this year and next as part of its "liraization strategy".In 2023, lenders with less than half of deposits in lira will need to hold an additional seven percentage points of bonds, marking the latest regulatory change meant to backstop an unorthodox policy of interest rate cuts amid soaring inflation.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comYields on the treasury's 10-year benchmark bond fell to 11.32% in response, from 13.12% on Monday. The lira was little changed at 18.5890 against the dollar."The 7 percentage points of additional bonds requirement is high, so it appears the central bank wants ... banks to have at least 50% and if possible 60% of deposits in lira next year," said a forex dealer at one bank.Bankers told Reuters the new rules would require lenders to hold an additional 80-100 billion lira ($4.3-5.4 billion) of bonds.The bankers, requesting anonymity, also said individuals' lira deposits were now 46% of total deposits, while commercial entities lira deposits were 47%.Also from 2023, banks whose lira deposits are between 50-60% of the total must hold an additional two percentage points of bonds beyond the 5% set for this year, the central bank said.Turks have snapped up dollars in recent years to hedge against one of the deepest currency depreciations in emerging markets, due largely to monetary policy easing and high inflation.The lira shed 44% versus the dollar last year and has fallen another 29% this year. Inflation was 83% last month.The central bank has urged forex conversions with a series of rules beginning in December 2021, when a historic currency crisis hit, after which lira deposits rose."The practice has strengthened banks' balance sheets and supported financial stability," the central bank said.By the beginning of 2023 the level of securities banks must hold will be based on lira-deposit share targets.Previously, the central bank required banks to hold an additional 7% of securities if they had a conversion rate from forex to lira of less than 5% of their deposits.BDDK regulator data shows individuals' forex deposits amounted to 2.69 trillion lira ($144.74 billion) as of Oct. 7, while lira deposits totalled 2.02 billion lira.In the same period, forex deposits of commercial entities were 1.61 trillion lira while lira deposits were 1.27 trillion lira.The central bank is expected to cut its policy rate again this week, by 100 basis points to 11%, a Reuters poll shows, after President Tayyip Erdogan called for more easing each month and said rates should be single digits by year-end. read more ($1 = 18.5870 liras)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAdditional reporting by Birsen Altayli
Writing by Daren Butler
Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
- According to a new biography of Mitt Romney, the Utah senator once questioned US aid to Israel.
- He argued that the US was borrowing billions of dollars for a country that didn't need it.
- But he told Business Insider that he's changed his mind on the issue, in part due to the war.
In recent years, it's mostly been Democrats who have questioned the utility of US aid to Israel.
In 2021, several progressive House Democrats voted against sending $1 billion in funding for the country's "Iron Dome" missile defense system, and calls have grown in recent weeks to place conditions on that aid.
But in 2019, one Republican senator quietly questioned the necessity of that aid: Mitt Romney.
In his recently published biography of the Utah senator and 2012 GOP presidential nominee, author McKay Coppins writes that Romney studied a bill to authorize $33 billion in funding for Israel's military "with all the idealistic naivete of a freshman political science student" when he first arrived in the Senate.
While Romney had long been a supporter of Israel, in 2019 he questioned the necessity of sending the Jewish state billions of dollars, even as the US national debt — of which China has historically held a significant portion — continues to grow.
"It's a challenge to justify borrowing 33 billion from China so we can give it to Israel, particularly when I am under the impression that Israel is sufficiently well financed to provide the funds itself," Romney wrote in an email to a top aide at the time, according to the book.
The aide ultimately won Romney over, according to the book, by explaining the pros and cons in further detail while warning that attempting to change the policy "would probably be interpreted as 'anti-Israel' because it would be a step away from precedent."
And on Tuesday, Romney expanded on that exchange in a brief interview with Business Insider at the Capitol — saying that he believes Israel aid actually saves the US money.
"We spoke about the reality that in many respects, Israel is doing for us what we would have to do for ourselves if they were not there," said Romney. "We are saving ourselves funding in part by virtue of the strength of their own military and economic might."
Despite ongoing concerns about the expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank and other human rights issues, leaders in both parties have long held that Israel is of great strategic importance to the US.
"The truth of the matter is, if there weren't an Israel, we'd have to invent one," President Joe Biden said last month.
Israel is by far the top recipient of foreign aid from the United States, totaling $158 billion to date and $3.8 billion annually since 2019.
As the country wages a war against Hamas, the Biden administration has requested that Congress authorize an additional $14.3 billion in aid to Israel, which some Democrats would like to see restricted.
"I think we're now in a very unusual circumstance, given that Israel is at war," said Romney. "So how they're able to finance that war, and whether we're able to support them, is a different character than it was under normal, peacetime conditions." | Middle East Business & Economics |
A shopper pays with a ten Euro bank note at a local market in Nice, France, June 7, 2022. REUTERS/Eric GaillardRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSINGAPORE, June 28 (Reuters) - The euro won support on Tuesday as traders braced for European inflation figures to run hot this week and awaited a speech from central bank chief Christine Lagarde, while worries about a recession kept the U.S. dollar firm.The euro rose 0.3% overnight and at one point poked above its 50-day moving average. It last sat at $1.0578.The dollar held modest overnight gains on other currencies and traded at 135.37 yen and $0.6936 per Australian dollar early in the Asia session.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comGerman inflation figures are due on Wednesday, French data on Thursday and euro zone numbers on Friday. European Central Bank President Lagarde is also due to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, at 0800 GMT on Tuesday."This set of inflation data will have a significant influence on the ECB's monetary policy forward guidance, especially on the trajectory ... of its interest rate hike cycle that is expected to kick start in July," said CMC analyst Kelvin Wong.Hike expectations have the euro trading firmly against the yen and it last bought 143.28 yen, close to last week's seven-year high of 144.24. It also has momentum on sterling and has gained 1.2% this month to 86.15 pence.The weak spot is against the Swiss franc which has rocketed to test parity on the common currency following a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank earlier in June.Moves elsewhere were modest as traders try and navigate between relief that signs of weakness in recent global economic data can moderate rate hikes, and worry that it could be a harbinger of the onset of a difficult period of stagflation.Some of the heat has come out of bets on U.S. interest rate rises, with the peak in the Federal Reserve's benchmark funds rate now seen hovering around 3.5% next year rather than 4% or above, but the dollar has not yet fallen far from lofty peaks.The U.S. dollar index struck a two-decade high of 105.79 this month and was last steady at 103.93.The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars have been left behind in last week's stock market bounce. The kiwi was steady at $0.6306 on Tuesday.Sterling was similarly becalmed at $1.2274."Stay long the dollar until some of the uncertainty has reduced," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes."The dollar will fall likely only when the global economy is on a more sustainable growth path ... markets are forward-looking, but all we can see ahead today is danger."========================================================Currency bid prices at 0130 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Inflation |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! Evan Halper, a business reporter for the Washington Post, argued Tuesday that "America is struggling to meet the moment," regarding a transition to green energy in the midst of rising gas prices. He called on U.S. policymakers to do more to prop up the so-called green economy. Halper, whose "work focuses on the tensions between energy demands and decarbonizing the economy," explained why, in his view, "an energy crisis and $5 gas aren’t spurring a green revolution," as was his hope. "The United States is struggling to squeeze opportunity out of an energy crisis that should have been a catalyst for cleaner, domestically produced power," he wrote. He continued, "After decades of putting the climate on the back burner, the country is finding itself unprepared to seize the moment and at risk of emerging from the crisis even more reliant on fossil fuels."‘BOND KING’ JEFFREY GUNDLACH URGES FED TO RAISE RATES TO 3% IMMEDIATELY FILE - In this Oct. 12, 2012 file photo, the windmill of windfarmer Jan Marrink is pictured in Nordhorn, Germany. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner,file) Halper speculated that "energy shortages prompted by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and high gas prices driven by inflation threaten to make the energy transition an afterthought — potentially thwarting efforts to keep global temperature rise under 1.5 degrees Celsius."He also worried, "The challenges are further compounded by plans to build costly new infrastructure for drilling and exporting natural gas that will make it even harder to transition away from the fossil fuel."He approvingly cited climate envoy John Kerry, who faced criticism recently for suggesting that "we absolutely don’t" need to drill for more oil amid rising gas prices. Kerry, he wrote, "suggested that nations are falling prey to a flawed logic that fossil fuels will help them weather this period of instability." MAY RETAIL SALES UNEXPECTEDLY DECLINE AS SIZZLING HOT INFLATION WAYS ON SPENDINGHalper pointed to incompetence as another reason for the failure to transition to ‘green energy’."The country’s lofty goals for all carbon pollution to be gone from the electricity sector by 2035 and for half the cars sold to be electric by 2030 are jeopardized by years of neglect of the electrical grid, regulatory hurdles that have set projects back years, and failures by Congress and policymakers to plan ahead," he wrote. Oil storage tanks stand at the RN-Tuapsinsky refinery, operated by Rosneft Oil Co., as tankers sail beyond in Tuapse, Russia, on Monday, March 23, 2020. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg via Getty Images He argued that "lawmakers have balked for more than a decade at making most of the fundamental economic and policy changes that experts widely agree are crucial to an orderly and accelerated energy transition."He further lamented, "The United States does not have a tax on carbon, nor a national cap-and-trade program that would reorient markets toward lowering emissions." "The unraveling in Congress of President Biden’s $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan has added to the head winds that green-energy developers face," he claimed.Halper also pointed to a slow-down in projects for solar-panel installers, which he attributed to "a Commerce Department investigation into alleged tariff-dodging by Chinese manufacturers."WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL BOARD ABSOLVES BIDEN: '$5 GAS IS LARGELY PUTIN'S FAULT'He wrote that transitioning to ‘green energy’ has been difficult because "adding clean electricity to the power grid has become an increasingly complicated undertaking, given the failure to plan for adequate transmission lines and long delays connecting viable wind and solar projects to the electricity network." Evan Halper wrote "Why an energy crisis and $5 gas aren’t spurring a green revolution" in The Washington Post on June 14, 2022. (ERIC BARADAT/AFP via Getty Images)The author cited a European think tank which found that "record growth in wind and solar last year was outpaced by the world’s rising demand for energy."CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPHalper noted that a "new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance finds that the United States and other countries need to dramatically step up production to meet their goal of making all transportation carbon-neutral by 2050." He added that this "would require zero-emission cars and trucks to make up 61 percent of all vehicles sold worldwide by 2030."Critics of Halper’s approach argue that carbon taxes and regulations amount to heavy-handed government intervention in the economy. Such interventions, they contend, lead to less freedom and decreased wealth and efficiency. Joe Silverstein is a production assistant for Fox News Digital. | Renewable Energy |
Smoke hangs over the Oakland-San Francisco Bay Bridge in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. Powerful, dry winds are sweeping across Northern California for a third day, driving up the risk of wildfires in a region thats been battered by heat waves, freak lightning storms and dangerously poor air quality from blazes.Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAir pollution, which is primarily the result of burning fossil fuels, takes 2.2 years off the average global life expectancy, according to a new report out Tuesday from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).The Air Quality Life Index, or AQLI, finds that taken together, air pollution takes a collective 17 billion years of life, and reducing air pollution to meet international health guidelines would increase the global average life expectancy from roughly 72 to 74.2 yearsLife expectancy of air pollution compared with other more well-known causes of harm to human health, like smoking and terrorism.Chart courtesy the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).Firsthand cigarette smoke reduces life expectancy by 1.9 years, on average, according to the report. Alcohol and drug use reduce life expectancy by nine months on average, unsafe water and sanitation reduce expectancy by seven months, HIV and AIDS reduce life expectancy by four months, malaria reduces average life by three months, and conflict and terrorism reduce life expectancy by seven days, the report said.The AQLI report is notable because its estimate of the impact on particulate pollution on human life expectancy is based on research that allows it to show causation, not just correlation. "Because of the way these studies were designed - and the quite fortuitous set of policies that enabled that design, they established a causal, rather than a correlative, relationship between particulate matter exposure and mortality," Christa Hasenkopf, the director of AQLI, told CNBC.Air pollution is so dangerous because it is impossible to avoid, especially for people who live in particularly polluted locations, the report says. "Whereas it is possible to quit smoking or take precautions against diseases, everyone must breathe air. Thus, air pollution affects many more people than any of these other conditions," the report says.Sixty percent of particulate matter air pollution is caused by fossil fuel combustion, 18% comes from natural sources (including dust, sea salt, and wildfires), and 22% comes from other human activities.The report, developed by the University of Chicago's Michael Greenstone and his team at the EPIC, is a measurement of the air pollution in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic was reducing activity and transportation.The massive contraction of activity reduced global pollution levels only by a tiny bit. Population weighted-average particulate matter declined from 27.7 micrograms (one-millionth of a gram) per cubic meter of air to 27.5 micrograms per cubic meter of air between 2019 and 2020, according to the report.And in South Asia, where air pollution is the most dire, the air pollution rose in 2020 from the year prior. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal are among the most polluted countries in the world.Particulate matter air pollution is suspended in the air and categorized by its size. The smaller it is, the deeper it can get into the body. Particulate matter with a diameter of less than 10 micrometers, often designated PM10, can pass through the hairs in the nose, down the respiratory tract and into the lungs.Smaller particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers, often designated as PM2.5, is about 3% the diameter of a human hair and can get into the bloodstream by way of the lungs' alveoli. It can affect blood flow, eventually causing a stroke, heart attack and other health issues.More than 97% of the global population lives in areas where the air pollution exceeds the current recommended guidelines from the World Health Organization.Chart courtesy the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).When the World Health Organization first published air quality guidance in 2005, it said the acceptable levels of air pollution was less than 10 micrograms per cubic meter. In September, the World Health Organization changed its benchmark guidelines to below 5 micrograms per cubic meter.Currently, 97.3% of the global population, equaling 7.4 billion people, live in places where the air quality does not pass the recommended 5 micrograms per cubic meter limit recommended by the WHO for particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers."This report reaffirms that particulate pollution is the greatest global health threat," wrote Greenstone, who was previously the chief economist for former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. "Yet we also see the opportunity for progress. Air pollution is a winnable challenge. It just requires effective policies."Buildings are shrouded in smog in Beijing, China, on February 26, 2014.Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesFor example, China has been able to dramatically improve its air quality. In 2014, after a year in which China had record levels of pollution, the then premier, Li Keqiang, declared a "war against pollution." The government spent money to combat pollution and was able to reduce particulate pollution by 39.6%, the report says.Despite China's progress, the air pollution levels in China are still more than what the WHO recommends."It is important to note that air pollution is also deeply intertwined with climate change. Both challenges are primarily caused by the same culprit: fossil fuel emissions from power plants, vehicles, and other industrial sources," the report's executive summary says. "These challenges also present a rare win-win opportunity, because policy can simultaneously reduce dependence on fossil fuels that will allow people to live longer and healthier lives and reduce the costs of climate change."The American Medical Association, the country's largest physician trade group, voted on Monday to adopt a policy to declare climate change a public health crisis."The scientific evidence is clear — our patients are already facing adverse health effects associated with climate change, from heat-related injuries, vector-borne diseases and air pollution from wildfires, to worsening seasonal allergies and storm-related illness and injuries. Like the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis will disproportionately impact the health of historically marginalized communities," said AMA Board Member Ilse R. Levin, in a written statement announcing the vote. "Taking action now won't reverse all of the harm done, but it will help prevent further damage to our planet and our patients' health and well-being. | Energy & Natural Resources |
ISTANBUL, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Turkish banks, now enjoying record profits, face a painful reversal of fortune next year as tough regulations loosen their grip on balance sheets.Bank executives have become so concerned at government policy that some have launched a rare revolt in recent weeks.Yet despite soaring inflation, bankers say President Tayyip Erdogan's government is likely to continue its unorthodox policies of monetary and fiscal stimulus at least through mid-2023 elections, which polls show he risks losing.Bankers forecast a very tough 2023 and beyond for earnings and lending, several of them told Reuters.To keep the central bank's aggressive interest rate cuts on track over the last year, the lenders have had to absorb a series of new rules meant to discourage hard currency deposits and to redirect credit to government-preferred sectors.Several insiders said that financial executives, wary of future prospects, reached a breaking point last month and took the rare step of publicly calling for changes.Hakan Aran, CEO of the largest private lender Isbank, urged authorities to ease or lift measures, including a mandate to hold government bonds, on grounds they prevented banks from using resources effectively.While it is difficult to predict how much earnings are set to drop, bankers say the new requirements to hold more treasury debt with yields fixed well below both lending rates and inflation will have an impact.Such public criticism from Aran and other CEOs is rare from a sector adept at flexibly and stoically dealing with abrupt rule changes, and at avoiding politics.One senior banker who requested anonymity said executives finally spoke out because the raft of new rules "raised the heat in the banking sector so much that it started to burn the system".Despite the bankers' calls, Ankara is unlikely to reverse course, including on a scheme that has ballooned in value in which the state protects lira deposits from depreciation."No one wants to create a foreign exchange demand of $70 billion before the elections," the banker said.Authorities say they will stay the course.On Oct. 31, the day Isbank's chief spoke out, the central bank sent a letter telling lenders to make maximum effort abiding by regulations and warned against forex transactions during off hours.The central bank and bank regulator BDDK declined to comment on fallout for bank profits and lending next year.Erdogan adopted the economic programme last year in which rate cuts and targeted lending to exporters and smaller businesses are intended to boost economic growth, investment and to reverse chronic current account deficits.He says cutting rates lowers inflation, despite his programme having largely sent inflation to 85%. It also set off a historic currency crisis late last year that prompted many of the regulations now pressing banks to boost lira holdings.'UNABLE TO PRICE RISKS'One recent rule mandated lenders to ramp up government bond holdings to backstop foreign exchange deposits.These purchases were made at a premium, sometimes replaced inflation-indexed bonds, and drove treasury yields down well below inflation to 10%, leaving lenders exposed to losses.The treasury-purchase rule "completely changed the industry's view. Banks became unable to price their risks... hamstringing their most fundamental right and capability," said Arda Tunca, an economist and columnist at PolitikYol.Reuters GraphicsNet profits for Turkish banks jumped by more than 400% to 286.2 billion lira ($15.38 billion) in the first nine months of 2022, thanks largely to their CPI-linked bond holdings.But the regulations are set to bite in next year's results, especially for private lenders. Their share of outstanding loans has fallen to 29%, compared to 46% for state lenders that have increased their dominance in recent years.Adding to costs, some banks are offering deposit rates of nearly 30% to corporate clients, even as they lend at near 17%.Other bankers said the regulations and rising costs have interfered with basic credit extension and could lead banks to cut operational costs. They could even strain relationships with foreign companies, raising funding costs of syndications or letters of credit, two of the insiders told Reuters.Authorities "tied the fate of the banking sector to state lenders with the recent regulations. This creates a balance sheet risk," said another banker who requested anonymity.Still, other sources close to the state lenders said these concerns are exaggerated given exporters, the focus of Erdogan's programme, are easily getting credit."It will take time to get used to this change," one of them said.Yet the banks, now flush with fixed-rate bonds, are also vulnerable to a policy reversal that would test their resiliency. Erdogan's opponents in the spring 2023 elections say they will hike interest rates to contain inflation.($1 = 18.6054 liras)Reporting by Ebru Tuncay; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Banking & Finance |
TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Friday to buy yen for the second time in a month after the currency hit a 32-year low near 152 to the dollar, a government official and another person familiar with the matter told Reuters.Japan has been attempting to shore up the battered currency as the central bank sticks with ultra-low interest rates, countering a global trend of tightening monetary policy and widening the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates.After the dollar rose to 151.94 yen , its highest since 1990, the intervention drove the Japanese currency down more than 7 yen to a low of 144.50 yen. The U.S. currency was last down 1.8% at 147.34 yen.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in several stages from around 9:35 p.m. (1235 GMT), one source said."We are maintaining our stance of being ready to take appropriate action against excessive forex volatility," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters on Saturday after meeting with Australia's Anthony Albanese, reiterating that such volatility could not be tolerated.Kishida declined to comment further, saying, "I will not make any detailed comments on forex" when asked about Friday's intervention.Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, also declined to say whether the MOF had intervened."We won't comment now on whether or not we conducted an intervention," Kanda, the vice finance minister for international affairs, told Reuters on Saturday, saying that this was a stance the MOF has stuck to over the past several weeks.He added that the ministry would not confirm whether an intervention had taken place for some time yet, signalling possible "stealth intervention" to engage in a war of nerves against investors selling the yen.The MOF also bought yen on Sept. 22, as investors focussed on the widening divergence between the BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy and the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes.Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and Kanda have repeatedly signalled the government's readiness to intervene, warning against excessive volatility. Suzuki said before the intervention on Friday the authorities were ready to act "strictly" against speculators.Many market players doubt whether Tokyo can reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention, even with Japan's $1.33 trillion in foreign reserves.The Group of Seven industrial powers agreed this month to closely monitor recent volatility but stopped short of indicating they were prepared for joint intervention.Japan bought a record 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in the September action, Tokyo money market brokerage firms estimated.($1 = 147.6400 yen)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Shinji Kitamura, Yoshifumi Takemoto, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Kiyoshi Takenaka and Kentaro Sugiyama; Writing by Sakura Murakami and Leika Kihara; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
The pound fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar early Monday, fueling speculation that the Bank of England might raise interest rates to prop up the currency. The sterling fell almost 5 percent to drop below the 1985 trough at $1.0327, before recovering to $1.0605. It is still down more than 2 percent on the session. On Friday, the pound fell more than 3.5 percent against the dollar, after the new government announced the biggest tax cuts in 50 years. Investors are not impressed by debt-financed tax cuts at a time when interest rates are on the rise. They also sold off U.K. government debt. ING economist Antoine Bouvet said plans by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng had created “a perfect storm for U.K. gilts and FX.” “Kwarteng threw the BoE a bomb and now they have to respond — today, asap … rate hikes incoming,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen also expects rates to go up, after a possible, futile attempt by the Treasury to intervene in forex markets to prop up the pound. “But I would expect — and encourage — the Governor/MPC to say publicly by mid-week that if GBP down, rates up,” he tweeted. The Bank of England on Thursday raised rates by 50 basis points and made explicit reference to a pending announcement that would likely “contain news that was material for the economic outlook.” A falling pound is a particular concern for the Bank of England as it challenges its fight against rampant inflation by boosting the cost of dollar-denominated energy imports. The lower the pound, the more interest rates have to rise. In an interview with the Financial Times over the weekend, Kwarteng dismissed concerns over ensuing market turmoil. “Markets move all the time. It’s very important to keep calm and focus on the longer-term strategy,” he said. Nor did he see a conflict between the Bank of England’s tightening of monetary policy to control rampant inflation and the fiscal authority’s spending spree. The euro also hit a 20-year low against the greenback to trade at $0.9655, as the victory of a right-wing coalition in Italy on Sunday compounded lingering recession fears. More from ... Johanna Treeck | United Kingdom Business & Economics |
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! GAS TAX POLITICS: President Joe Biden and states blue and red are currently all over the map where gas tax politics are concerned. Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre wasn’t prepared to endorse a gas tax holiday from the podium as recently as last Monday, but Biden told reporters this morning that he’s considering it and hopes to have a decision on the matter by the end of the week. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said yesterday that Biden is ready to work with Congress on a solution to high prices and called suspension of the federal gas tax “an idea that’s certainly worth considering.” Biden has already tried out others of the “tools” immediately available to him to bring down fuel prices — opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, enabling more E15 to be sold, and jawboning oil companies whom he’s accused of gouging drivers to invest more in production — while also maintaining his support for ending new drilling on federal lands and overseeing a phaseout of fossil fuels. Support for a federal gas tax holiday is a holdout. Backing it would catch him up with some of his fellow Democrats in the Senate and with some state-level Democrats, who have overseen suspensions of state fuel taxes. What’s happened in Congress: Sens. Mark Kelly and Maggie Hassan introduced a bill in early February, before the war in Ukraine began and when the average price of gasoline was about $1.50 lower per gallon than it is now, that would suspend the 18.4-cent federal gasoline tax through the end of the year. The bill has no Republican cosponsors and has yet to move through committee, with Democratic leadership preferring instead to target oil companies by advancing anti-price gouging legislation. Meanwhile, opponents of the tax holiday proposal have come from both sides of the aisle, where objections have largely been about the consequences of reducing revenues for the federal transportation fund. Those same debates have been playing out in various states, too. What states are doing: States are diverging widely on the gas tax holiday schemes, and in some cases, are increasing motor fuel taxes where others are suspending them. Maryland jumped at the chance to suspend the state’s fuel tax shortly after the war in Ukraine began, and the tax holiday ran through April 17 before being reinstated. But faced with a scheduled seven-cent fuel tax increase, and associated pressure from Hogan to prevent it from happening, Senate President Bill Ferguson and House Speaker Adrienne Jones have insisted that the state needs the money for transportation and other projects (Both Democrats supported the gas tax holiday). In Virginia, the Democrat-led state Senate just voted down a proposal endorsed by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin to suspend the state’s 26-cent gasoline tax. Democratic Sen. Joseph Morrissey noted complaints he gets about potholes in his district and said the state needs the tax revenue. California, which has the highest gas prices in the nation, will also oversee an increase to its fuel tax next month by almost 3 cents per gallon against the wishes of its Republican minority, while Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to send car owners $400 rebates to help them shoulder the costs of record prices. Other states have taken a different tack. Republican-led Georgia extended its gas tax holiday through July 14, while New York drivers won’t be paying the state’s excise tax on either gasoline or diesel fuel through the end of the year. Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Jeremy Beaman (@jeremywbeaman) and Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep). Email [email protected] or [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list. GERMANY TURNS TO COAL AFTER RUSSIAN GAS SUPPLY REDUCTIONS: In case you missed it, German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said the country would need to return to coal-fired power plants "for a transitional period" while putting more gas into storage to get the country through the winter following supply reductions from Russia. "Security of supply is currently guaranteed, but the situation is serious," Habeck said in a statement. "That means, to be honest, more coal-fired power plants for a transitional period. That's bitter, but it's almost necessary in this situation to reduce gas consumption." Habeck has accused Russia of intentionally throttling supply (Russia blamed “technical issues” with an entry point on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline). The resort to coal-fired energy is a setback to Germany’s plans to phase out coal use. PG&E EXPANDS BLACKOUT-TRIGGERING BREAKERS: The California utility has enhanced the sensitivity of over 1,000 circuit breakers so they switch off power when contacted by a tree branch, animal, or other object in order to preempt the ignition of fires, the Sacramento Bee reported. PG&E introduced its Enhanced Powerline Safety Settings Program last summer after its equipment was implicated for sparking the Dixie Fire, which burned nearly 1 million acres to become the second-largest wildfire in the state’s history. The number of affected circuit breakers is more than five times greater than what the program used last year. PG&E is one among several of the nation’s utilities and grid operators to warn customers of higher risks for blackouts this summer due to forecasts of high temperatures and wildfire risks, coupled with shortages of baseload electricity-generating capacity. BIDEN BOEM FINISHES FIRST DRAFT EIS FOR OFFSHORE WIND: The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management completed its first draft environmental impact statement for an offshore wind project since Biden took office and is soliciting comment on its review of the project, which could power more than 500,000 homes by wind generated off the New Jersey coast. Ocean Wind proposes to build up to 98 wind turbine generators and up to three offshore substations within the lease area, which is located southeast of Atlantic City, for an estimated capacity of between 1,215 and 1,440 megawatts. The draft EIS will be published on Friday and the comment period will be open through August 8. CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY GROUP ADDS GRAVES ALUM: ClearPath has hired Amanda Sollazzo to be government affairs associate for the energy policy group. Sollazzo most recently worked as an executive assistant to Republican Rep. Sam Graves and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. The Rundown Bloomberg World looks to refiners in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for diesel Wall Street Journal Mining firms’ cautious spending threatens shift to green energy Financial Times Corporate America seeks to halt SEC climate rule Calendar TUESDAY | JUNE 21 2:00 p.m. The Wilson Center will hold an event titled “Seabed Mining, International Law, and the United States.” | Energy & Natural Resources |
Australian Indigenous leaders call for 'week of silence' after referendum defeat
SYDNEY : Australian Indigenous leaders called for a week of silence and reflection after a referendum to recognise the First Peoples in the constitution was decisively rejected by a majority of the population.
More than 60per cent of Australians voted "No" in the landmark referendum on Saturday, the first in almost a quarter of a century, that asked whether to alter the constitution to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island people through the creation of an Indigenous advisory body, the "Voice to Parliament".
The outcome is seen as a setback for reconciliation efforts with the country's Indigenous community, and also for Australia's image in the world regarding how it treats First Nations people.
Unlike other nations with similar histories like Canada and New Zealand, Australia has not yet formally recognised or reached a treaty with its First Peoples.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island people make up 3.8per cent of the 26 million population and have inhabited Australia for about 60,000 years but are not mentioned in the constitution and by most socio-economic measures are the most disadvantaged people in the country.
"This is a bitter irony. That people who have only been on this continent for 235 years would refuse to recognise those whose home this land has been for 60,000 and more years is beyond reason," the leaders said in a statement that was released on social media platforms.
The leaders said the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island flag would be lowered to half-mast for the week to acknowledge the referendum result.
"The referendum was a chance for newcomers to show a long-refused grace and gratitude and to acknowledge the brutal dispossession of our people underwrote their every advantage in this country," the statement said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese staked significant political capital on the Voice referendum, but his critics say it was his biggest misstep since coming to power in May last year.
The opposition leader Peter Dutton said it was a referendum "that Australia did not need to have", and that it only ended up dividing the nation.
One of the biggest reasons for the referendum loss, however, was the lack of bipartisan support, with leaders of the major conservative parties campaigning for a "No" vote.
No referendum has passed in Australia without bipartisan backing.
"Much will be asked of the role of racism and prejudice against Indigenous people in this result," leaders said in the statement.
"The only thing we ask is that each and every Australian who voted in this election reflect hard on this question."
(Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama) | Australia Business & Economics |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! FIRST ON FOX: A Democrat Senate candidate in Iowa wants to make the state more "liberal."During a campaign event at a high school in Des Moines, Iowa, retired Navy Vice Admiral Michael Franken, the Iowa Democrat taking on longtime Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, said that he wanted to "change" the state to have more "progressive thought" than California."Like Iowa used to be," Franken said. "We would swing at ideas well before states like California."WHITE HOUSE FIRES BACK AT RICK SCOTT ADS, SAYS HE IS ‘EXPLOITING INFLATION TO RIP OFF WORKING FAMILIES’ Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is looking to keep his Senate seat as the Republican nominee. (SUSAN WALSH/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)"We were the generators of good ideas," the Iowa Democrat added.However, Franken’s goal to surpass the Golden State in liberalness may not be the golden messaging he’s looking for as inflation rises nationwide, but especially in California.The U.S.'s wholesale inflation rate hit 10.8% on Monday, hovering near the all-time high and forcing Americans to make tough decisions with their hard-earned dollars.One canary in the inflation coal mine is the average price of gas, which has gone over $5 per gallon in the U.S., according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).Gas policy is heavily impacted at the state level, which is why California and other states with laws targeting fossil fuels have higher fuel prices.As of Tuesday, the average price for a gallon of gas in California is $6.438, nearly a buck-fifty more than the national average.When juxtaposed to the prices from the Hawkeye State, California's gas prices alone are almost $2 more than the current average cost of gas in Iowa, which sits at $4.748 as of Tuesday.Gas is only one aspect of how California's policies have affected the cost of living in the state. Rental costs are nearly double those of Iowa.CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPRent in the Golden State is anything but cheap, with the average price for a studio apartment costing $1,061, according to RentData. The same type unit in Iowa has an average rent of $541, RentData notes.Franken's campaign did not respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment. Houston Keene is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital. Story tips can be sent to [email protected] and on Twitter: @HoustonKeene | Inflation |
People who watched Sky News were less likely to believe Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders face discrimination and more likely to vote no, a new study of referendum voting intention in the final week of the campaign has found.
The Albanese government’s proposal for an Indigenous voice to parliament was defeated with a majority of people and every state voting against the proposal. Nationally, 39.4% voted in favour of the voice, while 60.6% voted against it.
Accent Research and Octopus Group ran a survey of 1,204 Australians aged 18 and older who were enrolled to vote to gauge what people were thinking before they took to the ballot box.
How people perceived the level of discrimination experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders was a “very, very good predictor of how they voted on the referendum”, according to Dr Shaun Ratcliff, president of Accent Research.
The survey asked respondents how much discrimination they think Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders face in Australia, and how much discrimination they think white Australians face.
Just more than half (53%) of voters said Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders faced more discrimination than white Australians, while 15% said white Australians face more discrimination, and 32% said they face the same amount.
People who said they would vote no made up nearly 80% of the group who said that white Australians face the same amount of discrimination as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, or that white Australians face more.
Everyone who that said white Australians face more discrimination than Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people said they would vote no.
“Certainly these views about whether or not Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders face more discrimination than white Australians plays a big role in in whether people are willing to support the voice,” Ratcliff said. “Obviously that is a complex issue.”
Sky News, daily tabloid newspapers, the Australian newspaper, free-to-air television news and AM radio were “less likely to say Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders faced discrimination”, according to the report. Voters who relied on these sources, as well as Facebook and FM radio, for news were more likely to say they would vote no.
Why did people vote no?
The no camp’s assurance that the voice would “divide Australia” was listed in 82% of respondent’s top three reasons for intention to vote no. It was the number one reason to vote no for 41% of no voters.
“That argument cut through,” Ratcliff said.
Other claims by the no campaign held little influence over people’s votes, according to the survey. Financial stress was one “line of attack” used by opposition leader Peter Dutton, Ratcliff said.
“He argued that the government had become distracted by the referendum, rather than focusing on the rising cost of living.”
However, 65% of voters who intended to vote no indicated “there were more important issues” than a voice to parliament – the second most cited reason for voting no. But there was only a 5% gap between those that were under a great deal of financial stress and those that had none at all, indicating that was not a major differentiating factor behind no votes.
“If you don’t know vote no” was another line peddled widely, and generously debated and reported.
“I don’t understand it [the voice]” was listed in the top three reasons for voting no for just 26% of respondents. Only 9% of respondents listed it as their most important reason. Of voters that selected “I understand the voice”, 65% intended to vote no.
“They got a lot of coverage, and a lot more attention, than their actual importance warranted,” Ratcliff said. “None of these were the major driver”.
The progressive no vote – spearheaded by Lidia Thorpe and arguing that the voice didn’t go far enough – also made up only a minor share of those intending to vote no.
“Hardly anyone selected that as a main reason,” Ratcliff said, saying only 11% of no voters placed it in their top three reasons.
“But because such a small percentage of the total electorate was undecided, even if all of those voters voted yes, that wouldn’t have been enough to change the outcome.”
Why did people vote yes?
There was no single reason behind the rationale for those intending to vote yes. “It will give Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders a voice in government”, “it will help Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders”, and “it’s the right thing to do” were the top three reasons given.
“We thought that ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders asked for it’ might have been a compelling reason, but that was actually not that popular,” Ratcliff said.
“The other one we thought might have been important was that we unify Australia. That wasn’t very important either by the looks of it.”
Support for the voice was lowest with Coalition voters, and highest among Greens and Labor voters, according to the survey. Polling data from the vote itself backed up the survey data, showing support for the voice was higher in inner metropolitan electorates than in rural and provincial areas.
A Guardian analysis of polling data found electorates with a high proportion of university-educated people were more likely to have a higher yes vote. | Australia Business & Economics |
Israel’s Widening War Drives U.S. To Warn of Strategic Defeat
Israel is expanding military operations into southern Gaza, putting at risk hundreds of thousands of Palestinians escaping the north as US officials grow increasingly uneasy about the war’s toll on civilians.
(Bloomberg) -- Israel is expanding military operations into southern Gaza, putting at risk hundreds of thousands of Palestinians escaping the north as US officials grow increasingly uneasy about the war’s toll on civilians.
Southern Gaza was hit by airstrikes overnight, when the Israeli military struck around 200 targets, including weapons depots used by militant group Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union. The attacks came hours after Israel Defense Forces urged those who fled south to evacuate again.
Israel’s War Aims Move South With Hamas Leadership in Crosshairs
The fatalities in Gaza — standing at around 15,500 according to the Hamas-run health ministry — have spurred increasingly vocal and public warnings from top American officials that Israel should do more to keep Palestinians safe.
Over the weekend, American officials from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Vice President Kamala Harris said the civilian cost of the war was getting too high.
“The lesson is not that you can win in urban warfare by protecting civilians,” Austin said in a speech in California on Saturday. “The lesson is that you can only win in urban warfare by protecting civilians.”
He elaborated further: “In this kind of a fight, the center of gravity is the civilian population. And if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.”
Harris weighed in also to say that “as Israel pursues its military objectives in Gaza, we believe Israel must do more to protect innocent civilians.”
A week-long truce brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the US collapsed on Friday, and the resumption of fighting between Israel and Hamas raises fears of how deadly the ground offensive will be and the danger that the conflict will spread across the Middle East and destabilize the region.
A continuation of the war in Gaza risks escalation elsewhere. A US Navy ship responded to a flurry of drone and missile attacks against commercial ships operating in the Red Sea, blaming Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.
“These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security,” Centcom said in a statement. “We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran.”
Privately, Israeli and American officials said they see eye-to-eye on IDF’s main objective to dismantle Hamas. The operation “will be as thorough in the south as it has been in the north” of Gaza, IDF chief of staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said. “It will be as fierce, with no lesser results,” Halevi said.
Other American and Israeli officials said the US isn’t against the operation in southern Gaza, but that it is asking for creation of safe zones to limit casualties. Those officials asked not to be identified, citing the sensitivity of the matter.
John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, also lauded Israel for being mindful of non-combatants’ lives.
Israel has given civilians in Gaza an online map with “a list of areas where they can go to be more safe,” Kirby said Sunday on NBC. “There’s not too many modern militaries in advance of conducting operations that would actually do that.”
“The US has been absolutely clear and unwavering” in its support, said Eylon Levy, a spokesman for the Israeli government. “We are very close to totally destroying two Hamas brigades in northern Gaza and the fighting is going to continue in the south,” he said at a press briefing on Monday.
Many nations have warned Israel not to use the overwhelming force in the south as it did in the north, where it leveled much of Gaza City.
“We are trying to be as surgical as we can be in a very difficult combat situation,” Mark Regev, a senior adviser to Netanyahu, told the BBC on Sunday. He added that casualty estimates from Gaza health authorities “need to be taken with a grain of salt.”
Yet expanding combat in the south is more difficult now because of the displacement of some 1.8 million people, many of whom fled there to avoid the earlier fighting in the north, according to figures by the United Nations.
Much of the displacement in Gaza took place after IDF began its ground assault roughly a week after Hamas stormed Israeli towns, kibbutzim, army bases and a music festival on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, most of whom were civilians. Israel has lost 401 soldiers and 50 police officers during the ensuing fighting, according to the Israeli government.
The only meaningful pause in the war came on Dec. 1, when Israel and Hamas agreed to a short-term truce that ended up being extended to 7 days, expiring last Friday.
Skirmishes also continued with Hezbollah, another Iran-backed armed group in Lebanon to Israel’s north. Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus, an IDF spokesman, said early Monday that Israel is confronting “quite escalatory” actions by Hezbollah on the country’s northern border with Lebanon.
--With assistance from Alisa Odenheimer.
(Updates with Israeli government spokesman’s comments from 15th paragraph.)
©2023 Bloomberg L.P. | Middle East Business & Economics |
Earlier this month, the entire Optus mobile network went offline nationwide following a "routine software upgrade." According to Reuters, "More than 10 million Australians were hit by the 12-hour network blackout [...], triggering fury and frustration among customers and raising wider concerns about the telecommunications infrastructure." Now, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Optus CEO Kelly Bayer Rosmarin has resigned in the wake of the outage. From the report: She said it "had been an honour to serve" but that "now was an appropriate time to step down." During Friday's Senate hearing into the outage, Ms Bayer Rosmarin rebuffed suggestions she was under pressure to step down. "On Friday, I had the opportunity to appear before the Senate to expand on the cause of the network outage and how Optus recovered and responded," she said in a statement on Monday. "I was also able to communicate Optus's commitment to restore trust and continue to serve customers. Having now had time for some personal reflection, I have come to the decision that my resignation is in the best interest of Optus moving forward."
Ms Bayer Rosmarin will be replaced in the interim by chief financial officer Michael Venter. Yuen Kuan Moon, the chief executive of Optus's Singaporean parent company Singtel Group, said the company understood her decision to resign. Mr Yuen said Singtel recognised "the need for Optus to regain customer trust and confidence as the team works through the impact and consequences of the recent outage and continues to improve." He said Optus's priority was about "setting on a path of renewal for the benefit of the community and customers." Singtel said Optus had also created a new chief operating officer position, which would be carried out by former Optus Business Managing Director Peter Kaliaropoulos.
Ms Bayer Rosmarin will be replaced in the interim by chief financial officer Michael Venter. Yuen Kuan Moon, the chief executive of Optus's Singaporean parent company Singtel Group, said the company understood her decision to resign. Mr Yuen said Singtel recognised "the need for Optus to regain customer trust and confidence as the team works through the impact and consequences of the recent outage and continues to improve." He said Optus's priority was about "setting on a path of renewal for the benefit of the community and customers." Singtel said Optus had also created a new chief operating officer position, which would be carried out by former Optus Business Managing Director Peter Kaliaropoulos. | Australia Business & Economics |
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, was welcomed in a handful of African countries this week, from those with big economies—South Africa and Angola—to the tiny kingdom of Eswatini, the last absolute monarchy in Africa, and Eritrea, one of only five countries to vote against a U.N. resolution back in March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This was Lavrov’s second visit to the continent in six months. With a shrinking pool of trading partners under a growing gauntlet of sanctions, the trip appeared to be planned as an image-booster for Moscow."I think the real message behind the Lavrov tour is that Russia is not as internationally isolated, perhaps, as the West thinks or would like to believe," Russia and Africa expert John Lechner tells Fox News. He said the foreign minister wanted to show that "Russia still has some friends, even after the disastrous war in Ukraine."Due to that disastrous war, it is not clear how much Russia can offer Africa. But Moscow’s steadily growing influence on the continent has drawn a lot of attention recently. For example, Russia’s navy will join China and South Africa in joint exercises next month. Russia is the largest exporter of arms to Africa. YELLEN’S SOUTH AFRICA VISIT: ‘NOT ESPECIALLY WARM WELCOME’ Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Foreign Minister of South Africa Naledi Pandor at news conference after talks in Johannesburg. (Reuters.) Russia is also involved in some energy-exploration projects, another endeavor that creates jobs for its people. Quite a few African countries have tapped Moscow and some of its more ruthless mercenaries, like the notorious Wagner group, to help prop up shaky governments. Out of those relationships have come, reportedly, shady deals favorable to Russia for the mining of precious natural materials. But Lechner says the scale of Russia’s trade relationships with Africa ($20 billion in total) are dwarfed by those of the United States (as much as $60 billion), which are in turn dwarfed by those of China (estimated at $190 billion.)It is China’s influence in Africa in particular that is said to have prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s ten-day trip to the continent to beef up involvement. Her trip dovetailed with Lavrov’s. Yellen was definitive about the U.S.’s commitment as she announced a few initiatives including helping Africa transition to renewable energies. "The United States is all-in on Africa and all-in with Africa," she said, adding, "Our engagement is not transactional, and it’s not for show." Mindful that some African heads of state have failed to condemn Moscow for attacking Ukraine, she pointed out that the conflict has direct consequences for Africa. "Russia’s war and weaponization of food has exacerbated food insecurity and caused untold suffering, and the global economic headwinds caused by the actions of a single man, President Putin, is creating an unnecessary drag on Africa’s economy." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana attend bilateral talks, at the treasury offices in Pretoria, South Africa, January 26, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko RUSSIA AND US JOCKEY FOR SUPPORT ACROSS AFRICAI asked John Lechner why some African countries are not making that connection or at least continue to be content asking Russia for assistance and doing deals with a country that is slaughtering tens of thousands of its neighbors."At the end of the day, each country has to think about its own local security priorities first. In the countries where Russian mercenaries are, are countries that are in conflict. I don’t think we necessarily ask Ukrainians whether or not they care about what’s going on in the Central African Republic or Sudan or Mali," he says, mentioning some countries where Russia’s forces are known to be active. "So we shouldn’t necessarily expect Central Africans to think in that way themselves."About the lack of condemnation for the war, not just among some African countries, but across parts of the Middle East, for one, which have kept silent. Lechner says it appears to be about asserting agency and basic realpolitik."Russia’s intervention in Syria has made the country another power broker in the region, especially at a time when there is at least fear that America is going to disengage more from the Middle East with more concentration in the Asia Pacific." U.S. President Joe Biden delivers keynote remarks at a U.S.-Africa Business forum at the 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, December 14, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque (REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)CHINA LOOKS TO OUTFLANK US IN AFRICA AS SOMALIA FACES TERRORISM, DROUGHT AND FAMINE"Russia is able to talk to both Iran and Israel, for example, and moreover it’s also an important oil producer itself. So I think maintaining those relationships and lines of communication and cooperation are important for their own interests."And back to Africa, Lechner says, it may be wary of taking sides in a new Cold War. Not only that, but certain countries view the brutality of Russia’s Wagner fighters as the last chance for quelling militias and resistance in places where more restrained Western peacekeepers have failed, so they will likely keep Russia at least relatively close as long as it serves the interests of those in power.CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP Amy Kellogg currently serves as a correspondent based in Milan. She joined FOX News Channel (FNC) in 1999 as a Moscow-based correspondent. Follow her on Twitter: @amykelloggfox | Africa Business & Economics |
Harris goes to Dubai to tackle climate change and war
Vice President Kamala Harris flew to the Middle East to tackle climate change and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, two challenges that have flummoxed White Houses for decades
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Filling in for President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris flew to the Middle East to tackle a pair of challenges that have flummoxed White Houses for decades: climate change and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Each carries the risk of political blowback going into next year’s presidential elections.
She spent barely 24 hours on the ground in Dubai, less time than it took to get to the United Arab Emirates and then back to Washington.
At the U.N. climate conference, when it was announced that “her excellency Kamala Harris” was taking the stage Saturday for remarks, she was not even in the room.
Harris' chair sat unoccupied as world leaders assembled for the panel spoke. When she did show up, she gave a short speech, then dashed off quickly, only to be summoned back for a group photo.
Harris was delayed because she had been on the telephone with the emir of Qatar regarding the Israel-Hamas war. And she was in a hurry after the climate event for more meetings with Arab leaders as Israeli bombardments resumed in Gaza after a temporary cease-fire.
The awkward double booking during Harris’ hastily arranged Dubai trip illustrates a set of tricky — and at times potentially contradictory — policy and political crosscurrents. The Biden administration with its diverse coalition of voters is trying to navigate these crosscurrents just as the 2024 presidential race is heating up.
When Harris spoke to reporters after her day of diplomacy, her prepared remarks skipped over the U.S. pledge to commit an additional $3 billion to a climate fund, a development she had cited in her conference speech. To the media, she focused on steps to resolve the war and prepare for what would come next.
“We all want this conflict to end as soon as possible, and to ensure Israel’s security and ensure security for the Palestinian people,” Harris said. “We must accelerate efforts to build an enduring peace and that begins with planning for what happens the day after the fighting ends.”
Climate and conflict are matters that require a balancing act at home as a possible Biden rematch with former Republican President Donald Trump unfolds.
The Democratic administration is staking much of the U.S. economy's future on renewable energy, yet voters are frustrated by gasoline prices that are higher than when Biden took office. Similarly, the war that began on Oct. 7 has exposed a divided between Democrats over Washington's support for Israel and the suffering of Palestinian civilians.
As the 81-year-old Biden seeks a second term, Harris, 59, has taken on a larger role promoting his campaign to younger voters.
During a monthslong college tour to campuses across the country, the vice president spoke at every stop about the existential threat of climate change, only to have audience members frequently express concern that the administration and the rest of the world are not doing enough.
In Dubai, Harris said it was “our duty and our obligation” to do more to move the world away from fossil fuels and limit the increase in average global temperatures. She said the U.S. would contribute $3 billion to a global fund meant to help developing countries better confront climate change and was joining 90-plus nations in promising to double energy efficiency and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
JL Andrepont, a senior policy analyst at the environmental group 350.org, said the funding pledge was a “cautious but hopeful sign of the power of public pressure.”
But Harris stopped short of calling for a phaseout of fossil fuels, something many environmental groups want in order to stop the emissions causing climate change.
“We will continue to celebrate the global wins that support justly sourced and implemented renewable energy for all and we won’t stop advocating for a fast, full phaseout of all fossil fuels, including oil and gas,” Andrepont said.
There is a similar level of tension among Democratic supporters over the Israel-Hamas war.
Polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has shown that 50% of Democrats approve and 46% disapprove — a near split — of how Biden has dealt with the war.
Harris reaffirmed the administration's position that Israel must be able to defend itself. Yet her words after hearing from Arab leaders conveyed some frustration with the scale of Israel's response.
She described the “scale of civilian suffering” as “devastating" and said Israel must do more to protect the lives of Palestinians not involved in the fighting. Biden has previously declared the U.S. relationship with Israel was ironclad and his administration is seeking more than $14 billion to support Israel's war efforts.
Harris also stressed the importance of a rebuilding process for homes and hospitals in Gaza region.
Amber Sherman, chair of the Black Caucus of the Young Democrats of America, said Harris' comments were “encouraging.” Sherman had previously put out a statement on X, formerly Twitter, that said the Palestinians were revolting against occupation by the Israeli government, just as Black Americans had fought against slavery and white supremacy.
“It's important that people call out what's happening in Palestine,” Sherman said. “We do want Gaza to be rebuilt and it's important that she mentioned that.”
Yet Harris' statements were not entirely reassuring to some critics of the administration's support of Israel.
“President Biden and his administration should show their statement in action,” said Nihad Awad, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations. "We want the siege to be lifted."
In all, the vice president spent barely 24 hours on the ground in Dubai, less time than the roughly 15 hours each way it took to get there and back from Washington.
While Harris was on her way back Sunday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby applauded Israel for having published online a map of where Gaza residents could go to avoid the fighting. He held that out as a sign that Israel was responsive to the kinds of concerns raised by Harris and others.
“There’s not a whole lot of modern militaries that would do that,” Kirby said on ABC's “This Week,” “to telegraph their punches in that way. So they are making an effort.”
___
Boak reported from Washington. | Middle East Business & Economics |
AP Photo/Evan Vucci President Joe Biden speaks during an interview with the Associated Press in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, June 16, 2022, in Washington. President Biden on Thursday said that a recession is not inevitable in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates at the quickest pace in nearly 30 years. “First of all, it’s not inevitable,” Biden told The Associated Press in an exclusive interview. “Secondly, we’re in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation.” The stock market closed with steep losses Thursday following the Fed’s announcement that it would hike its baseline interest rate range by 0.75 percentage points after an alarming May surge in inflation. “Be confident, because I am confident we’re better positioned than any country in the world to own the second quarter of the 21st century,” Biden told the AP. “That’s not hyperbole, that’s a fact.” He pointed to the nation’s low unemployment rate as a reason for optimism. The president also called the argument used by Republican lawmakers that the American Rescue Plan — the COVID-19 relief package passed last year — was to blame for inflation “bizarre.” The 30-minute interview in the Oval Office was Biden’s first interview with the AP and first interview with similar outlets like Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post since taking office. The president has been criticized for doing fewer interviews than his predecessors at this point in his administration and specifically for very seldomly doing interviews with print outlets. His interview with AP also notably addressed dismal mindset of Americans as inflation is rising and people are faced with the high prices of gas and goods. “People are really, really down,” Biden said. “They’re really down,” he added. “The need for mental health in America, it has skyrocketed, because people have seen everything upset. Everything they’ve counted on upset. But most of it’s the consequence of what’s happened, what happened as a consequence of the COVID crisis.” Biden’s approval rating dropped for its third straight week and is at 39 percent, with 56 percent of Americans disapproving of his job performance. Tags Biden | Inflation |
Nigeria is facing a record reduction in oil production, oil cartel OPEC reports, dropping from the first largest producer in Africa to the fourth, behind Angola, Algeria and Libya.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries monthly oil market report for August showed that Nigeria's production stood at 980,000 barrels a day, a decline of more than 100,000 barrels per day compared to July. The figure was about 50% of OPEC's target for the west African nation in August. For decades, Nigeria has been Africa's largest oil producer. But in recent years, theft and sabotage at production sites have hampered output. Petroleum authorities say more than 200,000 barrels are lost daily as a result, and that the trend is costing the country millions of dollars in revenue. Oil was once Nigeria's biggest earner and contributor to national GDP, but the latest data shows information and communications technology and trade contributed more during the second quarter this year. Abuja-based oil and gas expert, Emmanuel Afimia, said he's worried about Nigeria's current situation. "At this particular point in time when the oil prices are rising, Nigeria is supposed to sit back and be enjoying revenue and inflows of forex [foreign exchange trading] through the sales and export of crude oil. But the reverse is the case, so it's really a negative thing for the country falling from that position of being the biggest producer, Nigeria will slowly be losing its influence in the global oil market," Afimia said. FILE - People gather at the site of an explosion at an illegal oil bunkering site in the Egbema local government area, Imo state, in southeastern Nigeria, April 24, 2022. Nigerian authorities also are raising concerns. Last Friday, President Muhammadu Buhari said the situation was putting the economy in a precarious situation. And earlier this week, Nigerian lawmakers sent a delegation to oil-rich Rivers State to investigate the problem and report back their findings to the Senate. But oil and gas expert Faith Nwadishi said authorities must share the blame, too. "It's a question of pointing one finger when four fingers are pointing back at you," Nwadishi said. "If government was doing enough, I don't think that we'll close our eyes and see our major source of revenue being stolen up to 90 percent. I want to see a situation where government is taking more action than crying out." Petroleum authorities and security operatives have been working to halt the oil theft. Raids in late August led to the arrest of more than 100 oil thieves and the recovery of millions of liters of crude oil and diesel. Mele Kyari, head of the National Nigeria Petroleum Company, said the clampdown is making progress. "What is most difficult to manage today and daring for us to live with is the issue of crude oil theft, [but] we're not helpless and our efforts are paying off," Kyari said. Authorities in August awarded a pipeline surveillance contract to a former militant who once stole oil and vandalized pipelines. The move was criticized by citizens, but officials say the former militant's expertise will help prevent theft. | Africa Business & Economics |
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BRUSSELS (AP) — With a journalist or media worker killed every day on average in the Israel-Hamas war, the head of the global organization representing the profession said Monday that it has become a conflict beyond compare.
About 60 have been killed since the Oct. 7 start of the war, already close to the same number of journalists killed during the entire Vietnam War half a century ago. Other brutal wars in the Middle East have not come close to the intensity of the current one.
“In a war, you know, a classical war, I can say that in Syria, in Iraq, in ex-Yugoslavia, we didn’t see this kind of massacre,” Anthony Bellanger, the general secretary of the International Federation of Journalists, told The Associated Press.
And since the end of the weeklong cease-fire in Gaza on Friday, the misery has continued, he said: “Unfortunately, we received the bad news this weekend — after the end of this cease-fire — and at least three or four were killed.”
Bellanger said they are mourning around 60 journalists, including at least 51 Palestinian ones and also Israeli and Lebanese. Most were killed during Israel’s bombardment in the Gaza Strip. He said Israeli journalists were also killed during Hamas’ attack in southern Israel that set off the war.
WATCH: Israel-Hamas war takes deadly toll on journalists covering the conflict
He said those numbers are based on all available sources that the federation uses for its annual report.
Along with the human toll, the premises of many media organizations in Gaza have been destroyed, he said. He estimated there were about 1,000 journalists and media workers in Gaza before the conflict and said that now, no one can get out.
And yet amid the rubble, local journalists continue to do their job, said Nasser Abu Baker, president of the Palestinian Journalists’ Syndicate.
“They lost their families and they continue their work,” he said. “They are without houses and they continue their work. … Without food, without the security for them, without their families. Also, if their families are still alive, they are not with their families because they are living or sleeping in the hospitals.”
Bellanger said Israeli authorities were not responsive.
“I called the Israeli government, but they didn’t reply. And when I went to Palestine a few days ago, I proposed to the government press office to have a meeting, just to have a follow-up about this call. But nobody replies,” he said.
WATCH: UNICEF leader describes Israel-Hamas war’s brutal impact on children in Gaza
Israel has said it makes every effort to avoid killing civilians and accuses Hamas of putting them at risk by operating in residential areas.
“We want to make sure that journalists are protected. What they’re doing on the ground is critical,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told the AP.
The IFJ and Reporters Without Borders have called on International Criminal Court prosecutors to investigate the deaths of journalists and media workers, and ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan has visited the area.
The ICC’s prosecution office is already investigating the actions of Israeli and Palestinian authorities dating back to the Israel-Hamas war in 2014. The probe can also consider allegations of crimes committed during the current war.
Khan has called on Israel to respect international law but stopped short of accusing the country of war crimes. He called Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack a serious violation of international humanitarian law.
Israel argues the ICC has no jurisdiction in the conflict because the Palestinian territories are not an independent sovereign state. Israel isn’t a party to the treaty that underpins the ICC and is not one of its 123 member states.
Bellanger didn’t see sudden change on the ground coming soon but said that as the chief of the global journalism network, “I don’t have the right to be pessimistic.”
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A man walks past a currency exchange office in Istanbul, Turkey, June 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comANKARA, Aug 22 (Reuters) - A windfall of foreign funds arriving in Turkey and sustained interest in a state-backed deposit scheme have brought some relief for President Tayyip Erdogan's economic plan less than a year before tight elections.Erdogan's programme stressing monetary stimulus, exports and economic growth sent inflation soaring when the central bank slashed interest rates by 500 basis points late last year, setting off a historic currency crash in December.Even as annual inflation reached 80% last month, straining households and sapping earnings, the government has stuck to its unorthodox plan which it expects will eventually help flip the country's chronic current account deficits to surpluses. Strong exports and tourism have helped to finance a current account deficit which narrowed in June, despite heavy energy costs, according to the latest data.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRelief began in July when foreign visitors jumped by more than 50%, exceeding pre-pandemic levels thanks partly to Russians with nowhere else to go given sanctions over the war. read more The central bank's foreign reserves - badly depleted from nine months of supporting the lira - have nearly tripled since early July to $15.7 billion on a net basis. Bankers say inflows of some $5 billion from Russia provided a boost, though authorities have not commented and do not publish such data.Adding to relief for Erdogan, a lira-protection scheme unveiled during the December crisis cleared a big hurdle in July and August when $30 billion in deposits were rolled over without issue, according to data calculated by bankers.Only a further $3 billion in deposits need to be rolled over next month, and little more until next year, locking many companies in for another six months to the scheme known as KKM.The scheme seeks to curb demand for foreign currency by compensating depositors for lira losses against foreign currencies.Given the lira has shed 27% to the dollar this year, KKM costs are rising for the Treasury and the central bank, which pay depositors the difference.But most companies and individuals have stuck with KKM, avoiding another rush to foreign currencies and a potential repeat lira crash with less than a year before Erdogan faces tight elections."The cost is high but if this amount was being kept in forex then we would face bigger problems," a source with knowledge of the matter said."If there was any other alternative it would have been used but it looks like this will continue, at least until the beginning of next year," the source said of the scheme, requesting anonymity given sensitivities of the government plan.Depositors are lured to KKM by cheaper credit and tax incentives, bankers, companies and officials told Reuters. In total, protected deposits are worth 1.2 trillion lira ($66.23 billion), data shows.The central bank does not disclose its KKM-related costs.But since it was introduced on Dec. 20 - the day the lira hit an all-time low of 18.4 to the dollar - KKM has cost the Treasury 60 billion lira, 20 billion lira more than this year's budget allocation for the scheme.The scheme, along with big forex interventions by the central bank, helped rescue the lira at the time.But the currency has since tumbled back to near its record low, hitting 18.15 to the dollar after the central bank shocked markets last week by cutting its benchmark interest rate by another 100 basis points.($1 = 18.1196 liras)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Nevzat Devranoglu and Orhan Coskun; Writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
SummaryCompaniesErdogan's AKP has big pre-vote spending plans in 2023Monday meeting with finance minister, senior bankersExecutives warned over long-term risks of regulationsRules slashed yields, cutting fiscal stimulus costsANKARA, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Turkish bank executives raised concerns with authorities this week that a year of new rules forcing them to buy government bonds could ultimately destabilize the sector, even as it sharply reduces costs of a big pre-election spending plan.According to six people who participated in or were briefed on a Monday meeting with Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati, the bankers issued a rare criticism of the raft of rules and warned that their ballooning debt holdings posed long-term risks.Ahead of tight elections for President Tayyip Erdogan in mid-2023, the government has pressed on with a policy of fiscal and monetary stimulus despite inflation soaring above 83%, leaving Turks struggling to pay for essentials.To keep interest-rate cuts on track and to limit the lira's slide, authorities have rolled out measures meant to narrow the gap between policy and lending rates, direct loans to net exporters and to dissuade forex holdings.Many rules require banks to bulk up on treasuries. The buying has driven down 10-year yields by 1,550 basis points to 10.5%, from a 26% peak this year, slicing borrowing costs for the government's 4.47 trillion-lira ($240 billion) 2023 budget.After the Monday meeting, which also involved the BDDK regulator, the finance ministry said participants discussed lenders' compliance with policies and their contribution to the economy.One person briefed on the matter, who requested anonymity, said the senior bankers "complained for the first time" at the meeting.Two other bankers said the executives expressed concerns over longer-term "systemic risks" due to the level of their bond holdings.Polls show dwindling support for Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) and a tight contest between him and potential challengers in the coming parliamentary and presidential vote, largely driven by economic strains.Parliament, dominated by the AKP and nationalist allies, is debating next year's budget including record spending of 258.4 billion lira on social aid.Election analysts say such AKP pledges and subsidies, which ease the cost-of-living crisis, could help tip the balance toward Erdogan, who has led Turkey for two decades.VULNERABLE TO REVERSALThe series of rules increased the central bank's authority over the government debt, credit and loan markets, bankers say.The latest, unveiled last week, mandates lenders with less than half of deposits in lira next year to hold an additional seven percentage points of government bonds.This regulation alone created some 88 billion lira ($4.73 billion) in demand for government bonds, and it could double for those whose lira deposits are between 50-60% of the total deposits, bankers have told Reuters.Separate rules require banks hold bonds as loan collateral.The unorthodox cuts to the policy rate, now at 10.5%, and the big drop in Treasury borrowing costs has boosted banks' profits.Akbank's (AKBNK.IS) Q3 net profit was 17.07 billion lira versus 3.21 billion lira year ago. But with so much new debt on their books, lenders are left vulnerable if the central bank reverses course and hikes rates in line with global peers.Authorities "tend to introduce unconventional measures, often with contradictory goals, which ultimately hamper their ability to preserve the (banking) sector's stability," S&P Global Ratings said this month."So far the relaxation of prudential norms over recent years, and continuous changes in regulatory requirements, have added complexity to Turkiye's regulatory framework and made banks' operations more difficult."Turkey's public finances are strong compared to its emerging market peers, leaving plenty of room for fiscal stimulus. The proposed 2023 budget includes income of 3.81 trillion lira, and projects a deficit of about 3.5% of GDP for this year and next.The AKP has proposed some energy subsidies and student aid, while Erdogan has promised to hike the minimum wage and wages of civil servants, and to adopt early retirement measures.($1 = 18.6040 liras)Reporting by Nevzat Devranoglu and Ebru Tuncay; Additional reporting and writing by Jonathan Spicer and Ezgi Erkoyun in Istanbul; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Banking & Finance |
- Summary
- Companies
- Resignation follows mass network outage
- CFO to take over as interim CEO
Nov 20 (Reuters) - The head of Australia's second-largest telco Optus resigned on Monday, cutting short a more than three-year tenure marred by a massive network-wide outage and one of Australia's largest data breaches.
Parent Singapore Telecommunications (STEL.SI) announced the resignation of Optus CEO Kelly Bayer Rosmarin days after a network-wide outage left nearly half of Australia's 26 million people without phone or internet for 12 hours.
Chief Financial Officer Michael Venter will take over as interim CEO, Singtel said in a statement.
Rosmarin said she decided to resign after time for personal reflection following a parliamentary hearing on Friday where Optus executives said the company had no contingency plan in place for an outage of that scale.
"Having now had time for some personal reflection, I have come to the decision that my resignation is in the best interest of Optus moving forward,” she said in the statement.
Appointed in April 2020, Rosmarin headed Optus through two national scandals that have tarnished the reputation of the telco giant. A massive data hack last year exposed the personal data of 10 million Australians and triggered a class action lawsuit and multiple investigations from regulators.
The company was dealt a fresh blow earlier this month when a 12-hour network blackout hit more than 10 million Australians, triggering fury and frustration among customers and raising wider concerns about the telecommunications infrastructure.
Optus executives told the parliamentary hearing on Friday the telco provider had not foreseen a network-wide outage and so had no backup plan in place.
Rosmarin told the hearing hundreds of calls to Australian emergency hotline Triple-0 failed because of the outage although the telco had followed up all incidents and "thankfully everybody is OK".
Singtel said last week a fault in Optus' security systems caused the failure, not a routine software upgrade as previously suspected.
Rosmarin increased Optus' market share and improved financial performance during her tenure, Single said in a statement.
"We recognise the need for Optus to regain customer trust and confidence as the team works through the impact and consequences of the recent outage and continues to improve," SingTel Group CEO Yuen Kuan Moon said in a statement.
Peter Kaliaropoulos was also appointed to a newly created position of chief operating officer.
(This story has been corrected to change date of Optus network outage to earlier this month, not last week, in paragraph 7)
Reporting by Himanshi Akhand in Bengaluru, and Lewis Jackson and Byron Kaye in Sydney; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Stephen Coates
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Australia Business & Economics |
Presidential candidate Nikki Haley is hitting back at GOP contender Vivek Ramaswamy who called her "lying Namrata," referencing her given Indian name, and originally misspelling it on the website.
In an interview with Fox News Digital, Haley said she's "not going to get into the childish name calling," and that he should "know better than that."
On a new page on the newcomer's campaign website called "TRUTH. Over myth," Ramaswamy is attempting to set the record straight on recent attacks leveled by competition for the Oval Office in 2024 related.
One such criticism is Ramaswamy's position on U.S. support to Israel, an accusation leveled by former UN ambassador Haley last week during the first GOP primary debate.
"WRONG. Keep lying, Namrata Randhawa. The desperation is showing," Ramaswamy's website read earlier today. It has since been updated with the correct spelling for Haley's birth name.
"Nimarata Randhawa" appears to be a reference to Haley's birth name of Indian origin, but it leaves out Nikki, her middle name which she goes by.
"I’m not going to get into the childish name calling or whatever, making fun of my name that he’s doing," Haley told Fox News Digital. I mean he of all people should know better than that. But I’ve given up on him knowing better than anything at this point.
"I think we saw the childish demeaning side of him on stage. I think he’s carrying that out whether it’s on the website or otherwise, but I have no use for it," she continued.
Asked for comment, a spokesperson for the Ramaswamy campaign told Fox News Digital, ""How is he making fun of her name? His name is Vivek Ramaswamy."
Matt Whitlock, a former spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee posted on X that Ramaswamy's fact-check website "feels like parody."
"[N]ot sure why using Nikki Haley’s maiden name (spelled wrong) is a rebuttal. But makes clear her debate attacks got under his skin," Whitlock said.
He went on to comment that this type of political attack "usually comes from lunatics (on the left or right) accusing her of whitewashing her identity and hiding her heritage. (Who are too stupid to google it and realize Nikki is her actual birth name)."
Another X user pointed out that "what's even crazier" is that Haley was the only candidate during the debate to properly pronounce "Vivek," which he says rhymes with "cake."
Saat Alety of Fed Hall Policy Advisors stated on X that "The references to @NikkiHaley's maiden name or first name as pejoratives are bewildering. She's a married woman -- her last name is Haley."
"Nikki is an extremely common name in Punjabi culture - and it's her middle name. Sad to see this from an Indian-American, @VivekRamaswamy," he stated.
Haley went after Ramaswamy during the debate, saying he has no foreign policy experience and it "shows."
"He wants to hand Ukraine to Russia, he wants to let China eat Taiwan, he wants to go and stop funding Israel. You don’t do that to friends, what you do instead is you have the backs of your friends," Haley said.
Ramaswamy responded, "Our relationship with Israel would never be stronger than by the end of my first term, but it’s not a client relationship, it’s a friendship, and you know what friends do? Friends help each other stand on their own two feet."
"You know what I love about them? I love their border policies, I love their tough-on-crime policies, I love that they have a national identity and an Iron Dome to protect their homeland, so, yes, I want to learn from the friends that we’re supporting," Ramaswamy added.
"No, you want to cut the aid off, and let me tell you, it’s not that Israel needs America, it’s that America needs Israel. They’re on the front line of defense to Iran," Haley retorted, drawing applause from the crowd.
Ramaswamy's website says that, "By the end of Vivek’s first term, the US-Israel relationship will be deeper and stronger than ever because it won’t be a client relationship, it will be a true friendship."
"The centerpiece of Vivek’s Middle East policy in Year 1 will be to lead "Abraham Accords 2.0" which will fully integrate Israel into the Middle East economy – by adding Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Indonesia to the pact which was one of President Trump’s crowning foreign policy achievements," the website says.
Fox News Digital's Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report. | Middle East Business & Economics |
A woman shops for groceries at El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comNEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Monthly U.S consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August as declining gasoline prices were offset by gains in the costs of rent and food, giving cover for the Federal Reserve to deliver another hefty interest rate increase next Wednesday.The consumer price index gained 0.1% last month after being unchanged in July, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI dipping 0.1%.In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 8.3%, decelerating from July's 8.5% rise. The annual CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, which was the biggest gain since November 1981. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply lower, last down 2.2%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose and were up 8.3 basis points to 3.445%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, surged and was up 17 basis points at 3.741%FOREX: The dollar index rose 1.035%COMMENTS:THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING MEMBER, GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NYC“The good news is "peak narrative" holds as July was the highest print. The bad news is the upside miss cements a third 75 bps hike next week. So the market will trade heavy for a day or two until participants can refocus on fundamentals/earnings of businesses - which are holding up nicely despite a challenging environment.”MONA MAHAJAN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES, ST LOUIS"With the rally over the last week and yesterday, the market's risk reward coming into this report was a little skewed to the downside anyway even if we did get a report that was in-line or slightly below expectations. This report was a negative surprise with hotter inflation.""We did get the drop in energy and oil and gas prices that we were looking for but the rest of the report still looked pretty elevated.""We know that the shelter, rent and services components generally are stickier and tend to remain elevated for longer but what we're seeing in underlying fundamentals continues to be a softening - a cooling housing market, a potentially cooling labor market that would limit wage gains and maybe move them lower from here. So that over time should flow into core CPI as well.""Until we get inflation prints, not just one, but two, three, maybe four, moving downward steadily, that's when we can call a trend and the Fed may feel some comfort in at least taking a pause. So until that period, I think we're probably range bound and facing some volatility."KEN POLCARI, MANAGING PARTNER, KACE CAPITAL ADVISORS, BOCA RATON, FLORIDA“I’m not surprised, I’ve been saying all along it is going to be hot, so 75 (basis points) is now locked and loaded, there is absolutely no discussion about that. And in my opinion, 50 in November is locked and loaded and I wouldn’t really be surprised if they went off key-here and did an intermarket rate rise in October.”“Futures did a huge turn. Inflation was supposed to show a cooler print, PPI tomorrow is now potentially going to be hotter too, that just suggests that it is not responding as quickly to the Fed action as everyone said it would and was supposedly happening. That just shows that it is not which means that the Fed is going to remain aggressive for longer. If that print had come in soft at 8% or 7.9%, the market would have continued to rally, but because it came in hotter it suggests it is being a little bit more stubborn so be prepared for more hikes. That pivot idea and that 'let’s cut rates' idea is out the window.”DOUG FINCHER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, IONIC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK CITY
“The longer term view is pretty clear here, that monetary policy is a very blunt instrument and anybody that thought inflation would start to roll over just because the Fed’s hiked a couple times is pretty ignorant to the way economics works.”“It takes a long time to introduce inflation into the economy and it takes a long time for it to slow down. And I think it's clear here. People were expecting inflation to peak and read into that reversal and interest rates next year, which we think is just absolutely naive to think that's going to be the case. It's 100% chance now priced in that we get 75 basis points next week and who knows what the next hike is going to look like.”“Crude prices started to come down and people took that in recent weeks as a hint that inflation was slowing. But you know the difference between the core and CPI excludes food and energy."PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK“These numbers are disappointing. The core rate decline has reversed after two months of moving lower.”“This suggests an aggressive move by the Fed is on the horizon. The chance of the Fed moving back to less aggressive rate hikes over the next quarter is off the table. Perhaps another (75 basis point rate hike) in November and maybe one more in December.”“Headline prices have come down, but the reversal breaks a trend and that’s why the Fed is going to stay aggressive. Bottom line, it only fortifies the Fed’s hand for a tougher inflation fight.”“Obviously, the markets are not pleased with these numbers. Equities are falling out of bed out in premarket.”STUART COLE, HEAD MACRO ECONOMIST, EQUITI CAPITAL, LONDON"Stronger than expected US headline CPI number, albeit marginally softer than last month’s print. However, the real story is the fact that the core rate is continuing to rise and which now makes another 75bps hike being delivered by the FOMC this month look like a certainty. With the fall in the headline rate being almost wholly attributable to cheaper gasoline prices, it appears US consumers are simply reallocating this extra spending power toward other goods and services, the implication of which is a broadening of inflationary pressures throughout the economy. Overall, the report will not be happy reading for the Fed.""The CPI release will have knocked back hopes that inflationary pressures are slowing to the degree hoped for. This implies the Fed will remain in tightening mode for longer and suggesting interest rates still have some way to go before they reach the terminal rate."KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"The data was far stronger than expected. Particularly worrisome is the fact that core inflation came in almost double estimates. This is going to put the idea of transitory inflation to bed for now and anchor U.S. yields and the dollar substantially higher. The key thing here is that we're now looking at near-certain odds on a 75 basis point move next week, but also potentially a 50 basis point or higher move in November."GREG BASSUK, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, AXS INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK CITY“All eyes were focused on the core inflation data and the challenge there is when you take out energy and food, many believe that's a very good gauge of price levels and so investors are going to digest that."
"We think that the Fed is going to continue to try to rein in the elements that have been driving prices higher but the new information is that these two consecutive months July and August have a more dampening set of numbers. We think that removes the possibility of the Fed being more aggressive than 75 basis points."
"Investors should remain cautious and vigilant, with respect to any additional economic data that could support potentially future rising prices in part because today's numbers also show that core inflation, which takes out energy and food and tend to be more volatile, actually rose."Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comCompiled by the Finance and Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Inflation |
ISTANBUL, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Turkey tightened lending rules for many companies with more than $500,000 in foreign currency cash on Friday, sweeping up more borrowers under rules adopted in June in the latest step to reverse a tumbling lira.The BDDK bank regulator said that if companies subject to independent audit had more than 10 million lira ($538,000) of forex cash assets, and they exceed 5% of total assets or annual revenues, they will not be allowed to receive new lira loans.The parameters were adjusted from those issued four months ago when they covered companies with 15 million lira of forex assets that exceed 10% of total assets or annual revenues.The lira currency has touched record lows in recent weeks largely due to authorities' unorthodox policy of slashing interest rates in the face of soaring inflation.($1 = 18.5814 liras)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Nevzat Devranoglu and Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Interest Rates |
British pound banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryEuro close to its lowest since 2002Swiss Franc briefly hits a fresh low since 2015Yen strengthens after inflation expectations riseGraphic: World FX ratesJuly 6 (Reuters) - The euro was just off its lowest in almost two decades against the dollar as concerns about the impact of surging energy prices on the euro zone economy continued to weigh.The Norwegian government on Tuesday intervened to end a strike in the petroleum sector that had cut oil and gas output, ending a stalemate that could have worsened Europe's energy supply crunch. read more Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its natural gas price forecasts by saying that a complete restoration of Nordstream1 flows is no longer the most likely scenario.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"It is not only the threat of non-delivery that is weighing on the euro," Moritz Paysen, forex and rates adviser at Berenberg, said."The already very high energy costs are also a burden. Energy costs in Europe are many times higher than in the U.S.," he added.The euro was flat at 1.0266 against the dollar after hitting its lowest since December 2002 at 1.0236 on Tuesday.The divergence between central banks' tightening cycles across the Atlantic remained in investors' focus."The big question is whether this deterioration in growth prospects is enough to curtail tightening cycles - especially that of the Fed," ING analysts said.They reckon the forex market will consolidate the current levels on Wednesday ahead of Federal Open Market Committee minutes from its June meeting, due at 1800 GMT."The general view that the Fed might ultimately have more opportunity than many other central banks to continue policy normalization," Unicredit analysts said.The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against six counterparts – was flat at around 106.5.An early selloff saw the euro briefly drop to its lowest against the Swiss franc since the Swiss National Bank abandoned its currency cap in 2015.The single currency was down 0.1% to 0.9933 after hitting a fresh 7-year low at 0.9911.Yen gained a little support from some safety bids after Japanese households' inflation expectations strengthened in the three months to June, with the ratio of homes expecting price rises over the coming year hitting the highest level in 14 years. read more The dollar dropped 0.3% to 135.43 yen . It hit at the end of June its highest since 1998 at 137.Bank of Japan has said it would not withdraw monetary stimulus because inflation is due to soaring fuel and raw material costs blamed on the Ukraine crisis and will likely prove temporary.Bitcoin fell about 1% and was last trading at $20,190. Ether rose 0.6% at $1,142.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
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Investors with prior knowledge of the Oct 7 Hamas massacre earned at least tens of millions of pounds short-selling Israeli stocks in the days before, according to a report.
Traders with potential links to Hamas put huge bets against the Israeli economy in the run-up to the attack and could have made more than $100 million (£79.3 million), said the 60-page study by Robert Jackson Jr, of New York University School of Law, and Joshua Mitts, of Columbia Law School.
While the report did not name the investors, the report said they were understood to be “informed traders anticipating and profiting from the Hamas attack”.
Mr Mitts told The Telegraph: “It’s not inconceivable that the profits are above $100 million based on the inferences from the current evidence.”
The shorts were unusual as they occurred during the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, a very quiet period in Israel both in terms of news events and financial activity.
The report also noted similar shorting behaviour around Passover in early April, when a similar attack was being planned but then called off at the last minute, according to confessions by Hamas attackers captured by Israel.
Israeli financial authorities said they had launched an investigation into the report, which also noted suspicious trading activity on the US stock exchange shortly before the massacre.
Short selling
Short selling involves borrowing shares and selling them in the hope the share price falls. Investors aim to buy them back at a cheaper price, pocketing the difference.
“Days before the attack, traders appeared to anticipate the events to come,” wrote the report’s authors.
They noted that interest in shorting the MSCI Israel Exchange Traded Fund “suddenly, and significantly, spiked” on Oct 2, according to data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (Finra).
“And just before the attack, short selling of Israeli securities on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange increased dramatically,” the authors said.
The report said the level of shorting that took place as Oct 7 approached was on a far larger scale than during previous crises faced by Israel – including the Covid pandemic and the 2014 Gaza war. It was in the top one per cent of all transactions since 2009.
In the case of Leumi, Israel’s largest bank, unknown investors shorted 4.43 million new shares between Sep 15 and Oct 5, which yielded a profit of around £6 million.
There was also some unusual, “risky” trading activity on US stock exchanges before the attack happened, according to the report’s authors.
“Although we see no aggregate increase in shorting of Israeli companies on US exchanges, we do identify a sharp and unusual increase, just before the attacks, in trading in risky short-dated options on these companies expiring just after the attacks,” the report’s authors said.
“Our findings suggest that traders informed about the coming attacks profited from these tragic events, and consistent with prior literature we show that trading of this kind occurs in gaps in US and international enforcement of legal prohibitions on informed trading.”
‘Under investigation’
In response to the report, a Tel Aviv Stock Exchange spokesman said: “The matter is known to the authority and is under investigation by all the relevant parties.”
It was not immediately confirmed whether the trades were carried out by Hamas or one of its affiliates. The Islamist group has a political office in Doha in addition to its presence in the Gaza Strip.
Sophisticated investors who short-sell securities often have vast networks of geopolitical and market information at their disposal to help guide their investment decisions.
In October, it was revealed that Hamas received hundreds of millions of pounds’ worth of cryptocurrencies a few months before Oct 7, possibly to help fund and prepare for the attack.
Israel has in the past moved to shut down Hamas cryptocurrency accounts, such as the 2021 seizure of a series of Bitcoin and Dogecoin e-wallets linked to the group.
A Finra spokesman said: “Finra’s mission is to protect investors and promote market integrity. In line with that mission, Finra monitors the market for unusual trading activity, as part of our normal course of action.
“Finra does not comment on whether or not it is investigating a particular matter.” | Stocks Trading & Speculation |
WASHINGTON (AP) — A transcript of an Oval Office interview Thursday with President Joe Biden by AP White House reporter Josh Boak. Where the audio recording of the interview is unclear, ellipses or a notation that the recording was unintelligible are used.AP: I wanted to thank you for taking the time to do this. BIDEN: Sure, happy to. AP: And I’m really interested in how you’re thinking and how you’re making choices during what seems like a really unique time in American history. BIDEN: Well, I’m making choices. It’s an interesting question. I’m making choices like I always have, in the sense that circumstances change but my objective doesn’t change. Does that make sense to you? For example, I have, uh, from the time I’ve entered public life, it’s been about how to give ordinary working-class and middle-class folks a shot ... instead of everything being viewed as from the top down. I’m not a big, is it working (a reference to the tape recorder). AP: Yeah, we’re good. BIDEN: I’m not a big believer in trickle-down economy, and, um, so everything I look at from the time I took this office, but even before that when I was a senator all those years, is what’s the best shot to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out because when that happens everybody does well. The wealthy do very, very well. And the biggest thing I think that, when I came into this job, that I have the greatest frustration with the last four years, is that, um, everything was constructed and built and arranged in order for the top 1 to 3 percent of the population to do very well. ... The rest was sort of, I mean that literally, everything else seemed to be an afterthought. AP: So, let me ask about that, right, because you’ve seen the polls. There’s a lot of voters who are very pessimistic. When I look at the consumer sentiment survey the University of Michigan puts out, even Democrats began to get really worried about a year ago regarding the economy and we’ve had people that have basically been through a pandemic, shortages of basic goods, inflation, some of the political divisions you’re seeing right now on the Hill with the Jan. 6 hearings, and also a war in Europe. And how do you as a president provide a sense of stability and strength ... (crosstalk)BIDEN: Well, if you notice, until gas prices started going up, which was about the same time, the University of Michigan survey, they had a very different view. Things were much more, they were much more optimistic. We came in and we started to grow the economy in significant ways. We were able to go from 2 million shots in arms to 225 million. People were having access to dealing with the pandemic. We started opening businesses, and opening up access to go back to work, etc. But then, in my experience, the way I was raised, if you want a direct barometer of what people are going to talk about at the kitchen table and the dining room table and whether things are going well, it’s the cost of food and what’s the cost of gasoline at the pump. I mean literally at the pump. And if you notice, you know, uh, gasoline went up a, you know, $1.25 right off the bat, almost, when, the, Putin’s war started. And as I said at the time, by the way, I made it clear with helping Ukraine and organizing NATO to help Ukraine that this was going to cost. There was going to be a price to pay for it. It was, this is not going to be cost-free, but we had, the option of doing nothing was worse. If he in fact moved into Ukraine, took hold of Ukraine, and Belarus, where it is, he’s been a threat to NATO, all those things would have even been more dire.AP: Why is that? Because it seems like you knew the risks on Ukraine with regard to higher gasoline prices ...BIDEN: Sure.AP: ... that carried political risks for you at home ... BIDEN: Sure. AP: ... so when, when your aides said, “Look at the situation,” how did you make that choice? What would you tell someone in Latrobe, Pennsylvania?BIDEN: I’m the president of the United States. It’s not about my political survival. It’s about what’s best for the country. No kidding. No kidding. So what happens? What happens if the strongest power, NATO, an organizational structure we put together, walked away from Russian aggression of over 100,000 troops marching across a border to try to, to occupy and wipe out a culture of an entire people. What, then, then what happens? What happens next? What do we do next? AP: What did you fear would happen next if you didn’t do (crosstalk)?BIDEN: Oh, I fear what would happen next is you’d see chaos in Europe. You would see the possibility they continue to move. You already saw what they’re doing in Belarus. What would happen in the surrounding countries. Watch what would happen in Poland, and the Czech Republic and all the members of NATO. For example, you know, the reason Putin said he was going to go in was because he didn’t want them to join NATO. And, uh, he, he, he, he wanted the sort of the Finlandization of NATO. He got the NATO-ization of Finland, instead. (laughter) No, I’m serious. And so, the idea that if the United States stood by, then what does China think about Taiwan? Then what does North Korea think about nuclear weapons beyond testing and pressure?AP: Do you think Americans have that sense of the stakes on a daily basis?BIDEN: No, I don’t. But I don’t think, look, on a daily basis, most households just trying to figure out how to put, before, even when things were going well, just figure out how to put food on the table, take care of their kids, pay for their education, just basic things. You know, look, um, one of the, I’ve always suggested to younger people that want to get into public life, I ask them two things: Have you figured out what’s worth losing over? Have you figured out what’s worth losing over? If you haven’t figured that out, don’t get in politics. Go into a more profitable org, enterprise. Go into business, go into commerce, don’t, be engaged. But unless you know what’s worth losing over, don’t get engaged. Number one. Number two. The purpose of public service is to promote views that you think are best for the American people. I made a commitment and I think I can say that I’ve never broken, if I make a commitment. I wasn’t going to run again, this time. I mean for real. I was not going to run. I just lost my son, I was teaching at Penn, I liked it, until all those guys came, come out of the woods ...AP: Charlottesville.BIDEN: ... the Charlottesville folks and this other guy said “good people on both sides” when an innocent woman was killed, etc. And, I made a decision. I’ve been doing this too long to do anything other than to try to do what was right. I mean, I’m not, there’s nothing noble about it. But it’s not worth it. So, you asked me what would I say to the American people. I’d say to the American people I’ve done foreign policy my whole career. I’m convinced that if we let Russia roll and Putin roll, he wouldn’t stop.AP: Let me ask on another hard choice you made. When you came into office, it seems as though you made the choice to prioritize job growth. Republicans right now are saying to voters that inflation started with your COVID relief package. BIDEN: Zero evidence of that. Zero evidence of that, number one. Number two, we’ve reduced the deficit by $350 billion last year. We reduced the deficit by a trillion ... 700 million this year. We grow the economy. Today, today, we have more people employed than, in a long, long time and we gained another 8.6 million jobs. And guess what? We still have hundreds of thousands of job openings.AP: So do you think that when Treasury Secretary Yellen said it might have made a marginal contribution to inflation that that was off? Did anyone apprise you of possible trade-offs?BIDEN: Yeah. They appraised me. Now you just said two different things. You said Republicans said I caused inflation. She said it may have a marginal impact on it. Two different things. You could argue whether it had a marginal, minor impact on inflation. I don’t think it did. And most economists do not think it did. But the idea that it caused inflation is bizarre.AP: Let me ask, stepping back after yesterday’s Fed meeting. I know that you’ve said look, our economy is strong. We have these jobs. It’s the best look we’ve had in decades. But then you’ve got serious economists who warn of a recession next year.BIDEN: Sure.AP: What should Americans believe?BIDEN: They shouldn’t believe a warning. They should just say: “Let’s see. Let’s see, which is correct.” And from my perspective, you talked about a recession. First of all, it’s not inevitable. Secondly, we’re in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation ...(interesting). If it’s my fault, why is it the case in every other major industrial country in the world that inflation is higher? You ask yourself that? I’m not being a wise guy. Someone should ask themself that question. Why? Why is it? If it’s a consequence of our spending, we’ve reduced the deficit. We’ve increased employment, increased pay. There was a survey done uh, uh, by the, uh, I forget which one it was, which one it was now, about three months ago. You had more people had lower debt (inaudible) credit cards, more savings in their savings account, higher pay in the job they had, more satisfaction in the job they had and they were in good shape financially.AP: I believe that was a Fed survey. You see this interesting shift, though, in the Census pulse surveys, which show people are clearly employed in a way they haven’t been. They are less dependent on unemployment benefits and the government for aid and yet more of them say they’re having trouble with meeting their weekly expenses. BIDEN: Well, two things.AP: What’s that paradox? BIDEN: Well, I think the paradox. I think part of it is, I think what, the failure of the last administration to act on COVID had a profound impact on the number of people who got COVID and the number of people who died. Now here’s what I’m, I think Vivek Murthy is right and most of the international and National Psychological Association, whatever it’s, people are really, really down. They’re really down. Their need for mental health in America has skyrocketed because people have seen everything upset. Everything they counted on upset. But most of it’s a consequence of, of, of what’s happening, what happened is a consequence of the, the COVID crisis.People lost their jobs. People are out of their jobs. And then, were they going to get back to work? Schools were closed. Think of this. I think we vastly underestimate this. If you had, and instead of your child being, how old, five?AP: Five.BIDEN: Five years old. If your child had been 17 years old two years ago.AP: I’m not ready for that.BIDEN: Well get ready, man. Boy or girl?AP: Girl. BIDEN: Well I’ll tell you what, she’s she’s going to be crazy about you until about age 13. And then hang on. But all kidding aside, here’s the deal. Think about what it’s like for the graduating classes of the last three years. No proms. No graduation. No, none of the things that celebrate who we are. Think about it across the board. How isolated we’ve become. How separated we’ve become. Even practical questions like, you know, can you go out on a date? The normal socialization, how does that take place? There’s overwhelming evidence it’s had a profound impact on the psyche of parents, children, across the board. And we’ve lost a million people. According to a study, of those million people, nine significant family or close friends were left alive after they’re gone. AP: So you’re talking about a country that has undergone profound psychological trauma.BIDEN: Yes.AP: What can you as a president do to address that psychology ...BIDEN: Be confident.AP: ... and make people feel more optimistic.BIDEN: Be confident. Be confident. Because I am confident. We are better positioned than any country in the world to own the second quarter of the 21st century. That’s not hyperbole. That’s a fact. AP: And do you think that’s because the U.S. is stronger, or is that because you see countries like China hitting speedbumps? BIDEN: Look, I’ve spent more time with Xi Jinping than any other world leader. Imagine — let me put it — let me ask you a rhetorical question, and obviously you don’t have to answer any of the questions. AP: I’ll answer whatever you ...BIDEN: No no. No no no. But think of this. Name me a single country in the world where that leader wouldn’t trade places with my problems for his in a heartbeat. Name me one. Not a joke.AP: Do you think that ...BIDEN: There are none.AP: Well so, so I mean do you think people wouldn’t want to be in Switzerland right now? BIDEN: No, Switzerland has their own problems right now. When I said major, I meant major power, so — but, no. I just had the American, the whole hemisphere, beautiful countries in the Caribbean and beautiful countries that are, that are middle-class countries that are having serious problems. Everyone’s having them. In the meantime we have a little thing called climate change going on. And it’s having profound impacts. You got the tundra melting. We’ve got the North Pole, I mean, so people are looking and I think it’s totally understandable that they are worried because they look around and see, my god, everything is changing. We have more hurricanes and tornadoes, flooding. People saw — I took my kids years ago to Yellowstone Park. Call me, “Daddy did you see what happened at Yellowstone, right?” Well, it’s unthinkable, these are 1,000-year kinds of events. AP: And yet you face a possible tradeoff in that climate change has this big impact. And yet Americans are unhappy about the cost of gasoline and fossil fuels. And I’m curious, like, what does that mean for you if you have to say, we need to increase production in the short term and companies say, but we don’t have the long-term incentives? BIDEN: Well, I say in the short term, who said they made 315 or 16 billion dollars, these major oil companies in the first quarter? So the thing is three, twelve, five ... I don’t know how many times …don’t buy back your own stock. Don’t just reward yourself. I mean, look, one of the things I ran on when I was running is that I come from the corporate capital of the world. More corporations are incorporated in my state than in all the rest of the United States combined. And they try to make me, the MAGA party, tries to make me out to be this socialist. I got elected seven times in that state. But one of the things that’s changed is the notion that comes with corporate responsibility. The fact that you’re in a situation where you have a Fortune 500 company, if you’ve got 55 pay zero taxes, 40 billion dollars. Those surveys also show nobody including Republicans in suburbia think the tax system is fair. Sitting there paying 8 percent. All these things that are occurring that have to be shifted. It used to be, for example, I’ll give you one example …AP: So let me ask you because you brought it up, your domestic agenda. In speeches you’ve said your domestic agenda is key for helping the middle class and beating inflation. Do you have the votes as of today, because … BIDEN: Yes. Well, first of all, I had the votes. (garble) I’m impressed by your objectivity, how you write. I’m not going to say that on the record because I’m going to get in trouble. AP: I’m in trouble anyway. So it’s OK. OK. BIDEN: Usually the question I get asked, at the beginning, the recovery act. Can you get this passed? How can you possibly do that? I got 1.9 trillion dollars. It used to be long lines, people in nice cars … (inaudible) line up just to get a box of (garble) in their trunk. People getting kicked out onto the street because they couldn’t pay the rent. Thousands and thousands of people. Guess what? It worked. Secondly, now here’s the important point, the second piece of this is it also seems to me we’re able to provide the funding for COVID, not only the shots and the shots in arms, and all the hospital costs, we’re able to reduce the cost of insurance. My point is people say, how can you get that done? If any other president passed just that act, and infrastructure, god almighty. Name me a president that’s done anything like that before. AP: I guess one of the reasons I ask is you did something revolutionary on child poverty, and you know it, with the child tax credit, an idea that came in part from Newt Gingrich back in the day, Contract With America. And a lot of families had hope from that. They moved out of public housing And then last year, they learned that their incomes were effectively going down. And so when you present your agenda to the public, the reason why I’m asking if you have the votes is because people really want to know. BIDEN: Sure they want to know. And on that answer. Not one single Republican, not one single Republican senator. We’re 50/50 and we lost one Democratic vote. So I am one vote short on that piece. But for example, I’m going to be able to get, God willing, the ability to pay for prescription drugs. There’s more than one way to bring down the cost for working folks. Gasoline may be up to $5 a gallon, but somebody who has a child with stage two diabetes is paying up to 1,000 bucks a month for their insulin.We can reduce it to 35 bucks a month and get it done. We have the votes to do it. We’re gonna get that done. I can’t get it all done. That’s why I need the (inaudible) vote. One more thing. Let’s look at what our Republican friends are going to have to face with the Supreme Court decision on Roe. What they’re going to have to face in terms of the Supreme Court —the failure, the failure of this Republican Party to be willing to do anything to do with the basic social concerns of the country. And so, I think, you know, I fully understand why every voter out there is just confused and upset and worried. And they’re worried for example, can they send their kid back to the back to college? What’s going to happen? Are we going to take away the ability of people to borrow? So I think there’s a lot of reasons for people to want to know what comes next. Do I have the votes? I believe I have the votes to do a number of things, one, prescription drugs, reduce utility bills by providing for, I think, will be everyone get the ability to have the tax incentive for winterization — they estimate bring down the average bill for a family on a normal home 500 bucks a year.I think we repair, we’re gonna get another $57 billion for semiconductors, so we don’t have the supply chain problems we had before, keeping down the cost of vehicles. I think we’re going to be in a situation — I know we are — where we’re going to reduce a person’s average internet by 30 bucks a month, because we have the money through the infrastructure bill to provide internet across country.I think we’re going to be able to have fair tax system, to have the votes to be close to have minimum taxes on corporations of 15%. Make sure we’re in a situation where the people who in fact are ... The idea that a billionaire is paying 8% of the income and a teacher is paying 22%. I think we’re going to be able to get tax increases on the super wealthy. Not a lot. Not a lot. I’m a capitalist. You should be able to (inaudible). For God’s sake, pay your fair share. Just pay — pay a piece of what you owe. And I think we’re gonna be able to do those kinds of things.AP: Were you surprised (cross talk) ...BIDEN: I know I’m supposed to go. That’s the last question.AP: Were you surprised because you referenced the reason why you ran was Charlottesville. And I’m curious, have you been surprised when you say Republicans weren’t going to work with you at all on some of these issues? Did that surprise you, given what you knew that compelled you to run? And how do you deal with that environment? And how does that compare to your predecessors who are on the wall?BIDEN: Well, my predecessor on the wall didn’t pass the (inaudible) his first year, number one. Number two, the reason ... You know why that predecessor is on the wall. You never saw his picture in this office before. I asked my brother put together the office for me — decide what desk I’d have. I didn’t realize the outgoing president had to be out 10 o’clock, the incoming president by 2 o’clock. And you pick what you want and you have to get it all in by then. So I (inaudible) Jon Meacham come in and he set my office up — the desk they picked, and you know everything, everything except the wallpaper. I came in here eight years in a row as vice president. George Washington’s (inaudible) is over there.And I looked and I said, “Why Franklin Roosevelt?” Not that I don’t like Franklin Roosevelt, but why put that big portrait of Franklin Roosevelt? And Jon Meacham said, “Because no one ever inherited that kind of big circumstances and more dire straits than he did that last time.” So that’s encouraging. And I said, “Why Abraham Lincoln?” And he said, “The country’s never been as divided since the Civil War.” I knew those two things coming in. But what I also believed was I could get some of it done. There was, I was reading an article. (He pauses to look.) Let me see if I can find it. That article by the guy talking about Biden and how he brought the country, Republicans and Democrats, together, Republican and Democrats. I’ll get it to you, I’ll find it. Oh, here you go. The New York Times Magazine. That’s factually correct. Now, there’s a lot I couldn’t get done.AP: Because you’re about to do the Ocean Safety Bill, which passed the House with a lot of bipartisan support. BIDEN: Well, yeah. And remember, when I called for that, everybody said, “Ah, no, no no.” But guess what, it’s gonna to pass. But my generic point is that, you know, we’re going to get gun safety, we’re not going to get what I wanted. We’re gonna get a part where everybody, get the Innovation Competition Act. A hundred billion bucks is going to be invested outside (inaudible). We’re going to have another 50 something. You know, there’s forced arbitration I got rid of and some sexual orientation, sexual harassment case, Juneteenth I got passed, no one said it could be done. I’m not saying, “Look at all I’ve done.” But I knew that were probably, probably 15 sort of traditional, mainstream, conservative Republicans left. And I include in that — and I’m going to get myself in trouble, gonna get him in trouble, probably — the minority leader from Kentucky. He’s a solid, mainstream guy. But you have the folks from Texas. You have a lot of folks who are very, very MAGA. For example, Johnson, you know, and Scott. Every five years, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid go out of existence. You’ve got to pull them back. These guys mean it. When the hell did you ever think that would happen in your lifetime and you’re a young man?AP: I feel like I’m getting more gray hair every day, sir. (Laughter.) BIDEN: Well, I tell you what, at least you’re keeping it. I’d settle for orange if I had more hair. But all kidding aside, I think this is a process and I think what you’re going to see this election is people voting their overall concerns as well. Even people who are not pro-choice are going to find it really, really off the wall when a woman goes across the state lines and she gets arrested for where she’s going. Even people who are, you know, there’s so many things these guys are doing that is out of the mainstream of where the public is. And I think — but it is, I knew I was stepping into a difficult moment, but — Can I say something off the record? (Off-the-record discussion.)AP: Thank you, sir. | Inflation |
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a plan to mine and process critical minerals during an official visit to the United States.
Australia’s government wants to attract investment from U.S. companies and reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates the critical minerals sector.
The Canberra government says without mining more critical minerals, Australia will not reach its target of net zero emissions by 2050.
The $1.25 billion fund announced in Washington by Albanese will help to provide low-interest loans to mining and processing companies in partnership with U.S. investors.
Critical minerals include lithium, cobalt, manganese and rare earths. These minerals are used in cell phones, batteries, wind turbines, solar panels and parts for electric vehicles. They are also needed for defense technology.
Australia has large reserves of many of the minerals. Canberra and Washington want to reduce the market dominance of China, which has had a near-monopoly in the sector.
Australian officials have stressed that a “sustainable and reliable supply of critical minerals is vital to supporting the Australian and United States' manufacturing sectors.”
Speaking from Washington, Madeleine King, Australia’s minister for resources, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. Thursday that reducing reliance on China is a priority.
“Many countries outsource its [sic] mining capacity to China and they have invested in that; they have developed their processing facilities while the rest of the world has not done so," King said. "I think the pandemic showed us that there is a vulnerability in each of our economies when we rely — for any product, I might add — when we rely on one supplier of a particular commodity. And that obviously applies to critical minerals.”
The funding plan was announced ahead of the first meeting of the Australia-United States Taskforce on Critical Minerals, which is part of Albanese's four-day U.S. visit.
Albanese is also seeking to shore up congressional support for the AUKUS trilateral accord announced in September 2021 with the United States and Britain that would give Australia access to nuclear-powered submarines for the first time.
The U.S. Congress is yet to pass several pieces of legislation needed to move the multibillion-dollar pact forward.
Australia has deep historic ties to the United Kingdom, while China is, by far, its biggest trading partner. But Australia’s relationship with the U.S., including a military accord signed in the early 1950s, underpins the country’s sense of security. | Australia Business & Economics |
Workers pass a Credit Suisse Group AG bank branch in Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022.Jose Cendon | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA U.S. jury found on Thursday that Credit Suisse Group did not conspire with the world's largest banks to rig prices in the foreign exchange market between 2007 and 2013, handing the bank a win as it works to restructure and put a string of scandals behind it.The case stems from the forex rigging scandal, which led to international regulatory probes resulting in more than $10 billion in fines for several banks.Credit Suisse was the last bank defendant remaining in the class action brought by currency investors in 2013, after 15 others reached settlements worth $2.31 billion. The investors allege that Credit Suisse traders shared nonpublic pricing information with traders at other banks.During the trial in Manhattan federal court which began on Oct. 11, jurors heard testimony that in 2015 five banks had pleaded guilty to forex-related antitrust conspiracies, and saw transcripts from chat rooms with names such as "The Cartel" where investors say traders colluded.A lawyer for the investors argued during the trial that chat transcripts were damning evidence of a single conspiracy among the banks to rig the foreign currency market. Credit Suisse traders participated in more than 100 chat rooms and shared information about the spread between the buy and sell price for currencies every other day, he said.Attorneys for Credit Suisse argued that such infrequent communication could not influence the market, that traders chatting about different currency pairs could not be part of the same conspiracy, and that there was no evidence Credit Suisse traders ever acted on the chats.Credit Suisse in July settled with some investors, including BlackRock Inc and Allianz SE's Pimco, which chose to "opt out" of the class litigation. Investors typically do that when they hope to recover more by suing on their own. The terms of the settlement were not disclosed.The verdict came as the Swiss bank worked to finalize an overhaul that would likely see it pare back a volatile investment bank in London and New York to focus on banking for the rich in Switzerland.The case is In Re Foreign Exchange Benchmark Rates Antitrust Litigation, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 13-07789. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
A money changer counts U.S. dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021.Cagla Gurdogan | ReutersThe U.S. dollar's stunning climb to multi-decade highs has put stocks on an unsteady footing that could continue until investors see a high-water mark for U.S. interest rates.As the dollar edges higher, investors have become increasingly worried that the Federal Reserve may be too aggressive with interest rate hikes. Some strategists say investors are hoping for a more clear sign on where and when the Fed will stop.Both the dollar and Treasury yields rose Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again vowed to raise interest rates until the central bank's fight against inflation succeeds. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.29%, just below its recent high. Yields move opposite price.The dollar index, up 14% for 2022 so far, was at a 20-year high this week but was off the high at 109.99 Thursday. British sterling was at a 1985 low, and the yen was at its lowest in 24 years. The euro was trading below par at 0.999, a 20-year low.Those currencies are falling against the dollar, as other central banks move to keep up with the Fed's aggressive rate hiking. Stocks can be adversely impacted by a stronger dollar, since it makes the foreign revenues of multinationals worth less. There is also the double sting of higher interest rates which gnaw away at the valuations of growth and technology companies, as the cost of money rises.The Fed is widely expected to fire off its third 75 basis point, or three-quarter point, rate hike Sept. 21. Even as the European Central Bank raised its rate by 75 basis points Thursday, the ECB still lags the U.S. central bank. The European benchmark deposit rate is now 75 basis points, well below the Fed's 2.25% to 2.50% target fed funds rate range.The Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 75 basis points Wednesday, and Australia's central bank raised its rate by a half percentage point Tuesday."This is an extraordinary period for the currency market when you had the Fed starting late, behind the curve and then catching up by front loading," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. "It is overall the interest rate differential with the U.S. leading, not only with hawkish rhetoric but also with hawkish policy measures. Once that eases, you're going to see the dollar weaken, but it's not going to collapse."The expectations for Fed rate hikes have been moving up, with the market now putting high odds on a third three-quarter point hike, versus the half point move that some economists expect. The futures market has also edged up the terminal, or end rate, for fed funds to just about 4% by the first quarter."Broadly speaking, I think the dollar strength carries into early next year," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. "What the market is really watching is what the terminal rate for fed funds is. Right now, the market is saying it's 4%...Once it has a better handle on that, I think the stock market has a rally."Chandler noted that Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester upped the rhetoric Wednesday by saying inflation remains very high and the fed funds rate could go "somewhat above" 4% by early next year."Ignoring the message of plunging inflation break evens opens the risks for the Fed that they end up making the diametric opposite mistake of last year's 'transitory' argument," said Julian Emanuel, head of equity, derivative and quantitative research at Evercore ISI. Emanuel said a bond market measure for inflation shows investors expect inflation over the next five years to average 2.5%.The last consumer price index reading showed inflation galloping higher at an 8.5% rate, though economists expect falling oil prices to ease up CPI inflation when the August report is released Sept. 13. The Fed had initially argued that high inflation was a "transitory" problem for the economy, created by the pandemic and supply chain distortions.The Fed is expected to release new projections for inflation, the economy and the fed funds rate at the September meeting. In June, Fed officials forecast a median fed funds target rate of 3.8% for 2023, falling to 3.4% by the next year.Emanuel said the market is not so intent on when the Fed ends but how far it and other central banks go."Everyone is now operating on the same bazooka type footing as the Fed. The fact is that when you look at it, you can make the case the Fed should start easing off because inflation is falling," said Emanuel.Greg Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities, said the volatile markets have been adjusting to the idea of higher rates. "The Fed is saying for the first time in a long time we want to get to a certain level but don't expect us to leave it anytime soon," he said. "That's a pretty powerful message. Powell was driving it today. I think it's a big pushback in terms of how this market was behaving."Faranello said he has been bullish on the dollar for most of this year, but he's currently paring back some of those expectations. The dollar is still benefitting from a flight-to-safety trade from geopolitical developments, he added."We think the Fed is getting closer to an end game, with a 4% terminal rate," he said. "We've been happy to sell into the strength we're seeing, given what I think the other central banks are doing." He said a weakening dollar, as a result, could be positive for stocks.Krosby said at some point the other central banks will seem more aggressive than the Fed, and that could bring some dollar weakness. She said that would be good for stocks, and U.S. exporters would be helped by a weaker dollar.She said the S&P 500 makes about 30% to 35% of its revenues in foreign countries. "It's a complicated story. To make it easier to understand, you have to look at the earnings," she said. In the second quarter, "You heard from Microsoft. You heard from Johnson and Johnson. You heard from Nike. They were all hit by a stronger dollar."But she added companies have different ways of hedging against currency fluctuation and some operations run in local currencies. Therefore, the impact is very different for individual companies.She said a stock like Apple, which buys and sells in China, could face headwinds from continued dollar strength. | Interest Rates |
UN rapporteur for Palestine Francesca Albanese was allegedly 'paid to be in Australia to spout hate' against Israel
UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese has been slammed as "completely biased" in her support for Palestine after it was revealed her trip to Australia was allegedly paid for by Palestinian lobby groups.
Sky News Australia host Sharri Markson has demanded UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese be "immediately removed" from her position following claims her recent trip to Australia was sponsored by Palestinian lobby groups.
Ms Albanese, the Special Rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territory, was in Australia in November where she made several high-profile media appearances including at the National Press Club in Australia.
One of her most controversial claims during her frenzied media blitz was that Israel did not have the right to defend itself following the horrific October 7 Hamas attacks.
Markson on Thursday uncovered how the Australian media were "duped to believe" Ms Albanese was "independent and impartial" after the Italian human rights lawyer was thrust into national the spotlight.
Markson said Ms Albanese's bias was exposed during an interview on The Project when she claimed Israel had no right to defend itself, before it was claimed her trip to Australia was allegedly sponsored by Palestinian lobby groups.
The independent NGO, United Nations Watch, claimed this week Ms Albanese's trip was sponsored by the Australian Friends of Palestine Association, the Australia Palestine Advocacy Network, as well as the Free Palestine Melbourne and Palestinian Christians in Australia groups.
"Expensive Australian trip by pro-Hamas UN official was funded by Palestinian lobby groups in breach of UN's own Code of Conduct that bars experts from taking any gift, favor or remuneration," United Nations Watch executive director Hillel Neuer wrote to Twitter on Thursday.
UN Watch subsequently filed papers with United Nations Secretary General António Guterres to remove Ms Albanese from her position.
Markson continued to criticise Ms Albanese, claiming that she "should immediately be removed" from her position as UN rapporteur.
"Article three of the Code of Conduct states that UN figures should be, and I quote, 'free from any kind of extraneous influence, either direct or indirect, and they may not seek or accept any favour, gift or remuneration from any non-governmental source for activities carried out in pursuit of his or her mandate'," Markson said.
"She should have made it clear in every single one of those media appearances on the ABC's Q&A, at the National Press Club, on The Project that her trip was sponsored by Palestinian lobby groups."
BREAKING: Expensive Australian trip by pro-Hamas UN official was funded by Palestinian lobby groups in breach of UN's own Code of Conduct that bars experts from taking any gift, favor or remuneration. We filed papers with @antonioguterres calling for Francesca Albanese's removal. pic.twitter.com/vdQpKlc81K— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) November 22, 2023
Markson then argued that the ABC owe the Jewish community an "apology" after she appeared on the Q&A program despite Jewish groups having expressed their concerns.
"Jewish groups had sent a letter to the ABC demanding that Francesca Albanese not be given a platform on Q&A because of all of the disgraceful and anti-Semitic views she's expressed in the past," Markson said.
"Well, the ABC ignored the demand and had her on the show anyway. Now it seems the public broadcaster owes Australian viewers and the Jewish community an apology. They presented someone as independent when in fact she was here being paid to be in Australia to spout hateful views against Israelis and Jews."
However, Ms Albanese has since hit back out the accusation, claiming her trip to Australia was funded by the UN.
"Yet another trail of egregiously false claims agst me. My trip to Australia was paid by the UN as part of my mandate's activities," she wrote to Twitter, in response to Mr Neuer's allegations.
"Continuous defamation agst my mandate may be well remunerated, but won't work. It just wastes time that should be used to help stop violence in oPt."
Mr Neuer spoke to Markson on Tuesday night and explained how Ms Albanese "pretends to be neutral but actually has a long history of dangerous remarks against Israel."
"Neither her position nor her own background have anything to do with impartiality. Her mandate is only to investigate Israel, and the reason they picked her is because she is extremely biased," Mr Neuer said.
"This is someone who in 2014 wrote on Facebook that, quote, 'America is subjugated by the Jewish lobby'. This is someone who a year ago in November 2022, spoke to a Hamas conference of terrorists and she said, quote, 'you have a right to resist'. This is someone who has regularly compared the situation of Palestinians to the Nazi Holocaust.
"She is the last thing that has anything to do with impartiality, neutrality, objectivity, and she should be exposed." | Australia Business & Economics |
Ethiopia's State Finance Minister Eyob Tekalign attends the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, U.S., October 15, 2022. REUTERS/James Lawler DugganWASHINGTON/JOHANNESBURG, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Delays in restructuring Ethiopia's debt due to the failings of a new global mechanism for resolving debt problems are "disappointing," the east African nation's state finance minister said on Saturday, adding that he planned to raise it with the head of the IMF later in the day.Africa's second-most populous country requested a debt restructuring under the Group of 20's Common Framework process in early 2021, but progress has been complicated by a civil war that broke out in November 2020 and has delayed progress with creditors on a debt workout.Ethopia's state finance minister Eyob Tekalign Tolina acknowledged the war was a key factor in the delay as well, and said he hoped there would be peace talks in "the coming few weeks" in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meetings in Washington.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe conflict pits Ethiopia's federal government against regional forces led by a party that used to dominate national politics. Thousands of civilians have been killed and millions uprooted by the violence."It's completely disappointing that it has stuck," Eyob said of the Common Framework. "We trusted the fund and we trusted G20 countries."Ethiopia's bilateral creditors co-chaired by France and the largest creditor China - which Eyob said was represented by China Eximbank - recommitted to granting debt relief in August, but further progress requires an IMF deal.France and China have "done a commendable job in navigating through this difficult journey," said Eyob.He said Ethiopia was requesting "exceptional access" to IMF funding of more than 100% of its allowance, but declined to say how much exactly."I think the (IMF) board would see that the government has done everything in its power to resolve this conflict peacefully," he said. "As you know, we have been calling for the AU process, the AU-led peace talks, which is advancing now."Peace talks that would have been the first formal negotiations between the two sides were scheduled last weekend, but delayed due to logistical reasons, diplomatic sources said."Ethiopia does not have a solvency issue, it's more of a short-term liquidity issue," Eyob said, adding that there was no danger of it defaulting on its debts.He declined to specify how much debt relief the country requires, saying that the IMF still needs to finish a Debt Sustainability Analysis, which forms the basis of debt restructurings.Eyob said he expected the DSA to be finalised in November.The IMF did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Ethiopia's government plans to finish working out how its banking sector will be liberalised this year, Eyob said, adding that about a dozen European and African banks had expressed interest.GDP growth was "over 6%" in the year to July 2022, he said, and the forecast is 9.2% for 2023, Eyob said.The east African country has long experienced foreign exchange shortages, with the IMF forecasting its reserves to fall from 1.5 months of import cover in 2021 to 0.7 this year.The birr was this week trading at 90 to $1 on the black market, compared to 53 in banks."We've made it very clear, we want to reform our forex regime," Eyob said. "So the exchange rate unification remains one important policy goal, but we are just doing it gradually."Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Jorgelina do Rosario and Rachel Savage; Additional Reporting by Duncan Miriri and Nairobi Newsroom; Editing by Dan Burns and Ros RussellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Africa Business & Economics |
LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Britain and South Africa on Wednesday announced a new health and science partnership to mark the second day of President Cyril Ramaphosa's state visit to London, the first such official guest hosted by Britain's King Charles.Charles, 74, had rolled out traditional pomp and ceremony to welcome Ramaphosa, hosted a banquet in his honour on Tuesday. Ramaphosa also addressed lawmakers at the Houses of Parliament.On Wednesday, Britain announced a new set of research collaborations as Ramaphosa toured the Crick Institute, the biggest biomedical research facility in Europe, and Kew Gardens, with Charles' brother Edward.British foreign minister James Cleverly said the partnerships, on areas such as vaccine manufacturing, genome sequencing and climate change, will "benefit us all".[1/5] South African President Cyril Ramaphosa looks on at the Francis Crick Institute during a state visit in London, Britain, November 23, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls"The UK and South Africa have shown global leadership in joining together to protect people by preventing the spread of dangerous diseases, and by working to halt climate change."Ramaphosa will meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak later in the day, and attend a UK-South Africa business forum to discuss trade and investment. South Africa is Britain's biggest trading partner in Africa.Ramaphosa had highlighted the role that industrialised nations had to play in helping other countries cut emissions in his speech on Tuesday, and welcomed Britain's involvement in initiatives helping South Africa to decarbonise.Britain will support genome sequencing at South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), which played a key role in detecting COVID-19 variants such as beta and omicron, in a push improve antimicrobial resistance surveillance in Africa.Kew Gardens - a botanical garden in west London - will also work with South Africa's National Biodiversity Institute on preserving South Africa's plant diversity.Reporting by Alistair Smout, Editing by William MacleanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | United Kingdom Business & Economics |
SYDNEY, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday, with investors cautious on China amid the ongoing Party Congress, while European markets are set to extend the optimism on earnings ahead of British inflation readings.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) reversed earlier gains to be 0.5% lower, driven by a 1.2% drop in Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) and a 1.4% fall in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI).Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei (.N225) advanced 0.5% while Australia's resources-heavy shares (.AXJO) gained 0.3%, tracking Wall Street higher.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.6%.U.S. S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.0%. Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) reversed customer losses that had hammered its stock this year and projected more growth ahead, sending its shares 14% higher in after-hours trading.Better-than-expected quarterly results from Goldman Sachs Group Inc , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) helped U.S. stocks rally. Both the Dow Jones (.DJI) and the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 1%."While shares have managed to find technical support in recent days and could bounce further ... the near-term downside risks for shares remain high," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital.Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, said a quiet week for U.S. data could also see the dollar correction extend a little."But a core view of not just the Fed, but other central banks hiking into a looming recession should mean that the core dollar bull trend remains intact."The U.S. dollar firmed 0.2% on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies. It hit another fresh 32-year high of 149.34 yen overnight, before stabilising at 149.28 amid risk of intervention from the Japanese authorities. FOREX/Sterling gained 0.12% against the greenback to trade at $1.1333 after easing slightly in the previous session.The UK, which has been roiled by a historic crisis in the government bond market, will report inflation readings for September later in the day, with annual inflation likely running at a double-digit rate of 10% last month.That would likely pressure the Bank of England to hike more aggressively. The BoE said on Tuesday that it would start selling some of its huge stock of British government bonds from Nov. 1, but would not sell this year any longer-duration gilts."Amid rapidly fluctuating views/market price on what the Bank of England will decide to do with rates on 2 November, a key data point of reference will be today's September UK inflation data," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, at National Australia Bank.A surprising strong inflation report from New Zealand on Tuesday prompted markets to sharply revise up the expected tightening pace for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.Oil prices recovered some ground on Wednesday, after plunging more than 3% in the previous session on fears of higher U.S. supply and the economic slowdown in China.Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $90.39 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 0.9% to $83.58 per barrel.U.S. President Joe Biden will announce a plan on Wednesday to sell off the last portion of his release from the nation's emergency oil reserve by year's end, and detail a strategy to refill the stockpile when prices drop, a senior administration official said.U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly on Wednesday after edging lower.The yield on benchmark 10-year notes edged up 3 basis points to 4.0317% while the yield on two-year notes climbed to 4.4543%, compared with the previous close of 4.4370%.Gold was slightly lower. Spot gold traded at $1,645.81 per ounce.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comEditing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Asia Business & Economics |
[1/3] U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationSINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied during Asia trade on Tuesday after some of the momentum ebbed out of bets on China's reopening, and as traders looked ahead to U.S. midterm elections.The yuan had its best day in two years on Friday, and has held most of those gains since, but gave back a little bit through Tuesday to trade at 7.2442 per dollar as fresh COVID-19 outbreaks chipped away at some of the optimism.The growth-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars, carried along for the ride, also made falls of about 0.5%, leaving the Aussie at $0.6449 and the kiwi at $0.5916, after earlier touching a seven-week high of $0.5951.Market focus is shifting to U.S. midterm elections later in the day, with a Republican victory and consequently gridlock in Congress forecast. A conclusive result could take days.Some analysts say that outcome could be positive for bonds and negative for the dollar if it leads to less fiscal stimulus."If we get a gridlock outcome or Republican sweep, it won't be so easy to get fiscal stimulus through next year, which means then that (Federal Reserve chair Jerome) Powell can afford to take the foot off the interest rate hike accelerator," said Damien Boey, chief macro strategist at Barrenjoey in Sydney.The euro was flirting with a dip back below parity and was last at $1 exactly. Sterling , which surged on Monday, was 0.2% weaker at $1.1490, with focus there on fiscal update expected on Nov. 17.China's strict virus policy includes lockdowns, quarantining and rigorous testing, and officials said over the weekend the measures are "completely correct" and will stay. But incremental adjustments have been enough to keep traders' from despair."Where there's smoke, eventually there's fire, so the market is pricing in improved optimism, though at the moment it's all based on hopes," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney."It's very CNY and pro-growth supportive," he said.In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 5% to $19,600 and ether dropped sharply in moves traders said were linked to concern surrounding brokerage FTX, after rival Binance said it would liquidate holdings of FTX's native token.The Japanese yen hit a one-week high of 146.35 per dollar. Japanese foreign currency reserves posted the second-sharpest monthly decline on record in October as authorities spent 6.35 trillion yen intervening to support the yen.Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need to look out for the side-effects of prolonged monetary easing and the potential impact of a future exit from ultra-low interest rates, a summary of opinions at their October policy meeting showed on Tuesday.========================================================Currency bid prices at 0538 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Stephen Coates and Himani SarkarOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
AP Photo/Jon Fahey This Oct. 27, 2011 photo, shows the Perdido oil platform located 200 miles south of Galveston, Texas, in the Gulf of Mexico. The platform was operated by Shell Oil Co. and owned by Shell, Chevron and British Petroleum. On June 10, while visiting Los Angeles, President Biden pointed at big energy companies as the culprits for rising gasoline prices. He lambasted the industry by claiming they would rather use their record profits to buy back stock than to drill for oil. He also pressured domestic companies to ramp up production while simultaneously threatening them with a windfall profits tax. Pressure ramped up again on June 14 with a series of letters by the president to various companies asking for concrete solutions to increase supply. Contrary to Biden’s claim that the industry isn’t developing domestic leases, some oil and gas companies are planning to boost output in the Permian Basin alone by 25 percent this year, while expanding refining capacity by 250,000 barrels per day. That’s equivalent to building a medium-sized refinery. Other major and independent domestic oil companies are also planning to boost production. But this won’t happen overnight, especially in a regulatory and policy environment that remains basically hostile to fossil fuels. Recent examples include the curtailment of new leases for drilling; regulatory and legal obstacles for new pipeline development; increased mandates for ethanol blending; and environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) regulations designed to discourage new financing of fossil fuel projects. In addition, oil and gas companies face the same supply-chain constraints and rising costs as other industries. Against this backdrop, on June 14, Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) announced he would soon introduce legislation setting a 21 percent surtax on the excess profits of oil and gas companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue and use those revenues to provide a gasoline subsidy for American consumers. Proponents of the tax allege it’s time for the industry to pay its fair share of the nation’s tax bill. What’s more, argue supporters, the current windfall is the result of geopolitical events — e.g., Russia’s war in Ukraine — and not an outcome of strategic company investment decisions. Those advocating for a windfall profits tax need to take a hard look at economic and fiscal realities. Forgotten in the debate is the fact that the oil and gas industry already contributes mightily to federal and state coffers. Prior to the pandemic, the industry paid $160 million in federal corporate income taxes along with another $4.2 billion in royalties from production on federal lands. That represented 19.3 percent of net income, compared to 10.6 percent on average for all industries. What is more, in some states the energy industry is the single largest taxpayer. For example, oil and gas companies paid $15.8 billion in state and local taxes and royalties to the state of Texas in 2021. Here are some more inconvenient facts. In 2021, U.S. energy firms were the 10th most profitable sector of the U.S. economy out of 11, according to S&P Global IQ. Energy firms listed in the S&P 500 stock index posted an 8.3 percent profit margin in 2021. That was below the median for all 11 sectors, which was 10.6 percent. Furthermore, prior to the recent run-up in oil prices, the average net profit for oil and gas drilling was only 4.7 percent. In short, high profits are an exception, not the rule, for the oil and gas industry. In practice, imposing a tax on the earnings of energy companies likely would backfire, leading to less — not more — oil and gas production. This was the case after enactment of the Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act in 1980 (U.S. Public Law 96-223), under the Jimmy Carter administration, in response to the OPEC oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution of the previous decade that led to sharply higher gasoline prices and growing profits for domestic and international oil companies. It went into effect at a time when the American economy was on the verge of a recession — much like today — and the law’s implementation was expensive and revenues proved to be well below expectations. Domestic production dropped from 8.7 million barrels per day in 1980 to 7.5 million barrels per day in 1988, proving that if you want less of something, tax it! The tax was repealed in 1988, by which time oil imports had risen by almost 1 million barrels per day. After focusing for more than a decade on the need to reduce carbon emissions, we now face a new paradigm as the war in Ukraine has returned energy security to center stage. Though still pushing renewable energy and electric vehicles, Biden says he wants more domestic oil production while consumers and businesses are demanding lower energy prices. A revived windfall profits tax won’t get us there. Instead, it likely would raise prices, increase our reliance on imports, and do nothing to stimulate more domestic production. If the past is prologue, it will actually diminish America’s energy security. Bernard L. Weinstein is emeritus professor of applied economics at the University of North Texas, former associate director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University, and a fellow of Goodenough College, London. | Energy & Natural Resources |
JERUSALEM, Dec 5 (Reuters) - On Oct. 7, the day Hamas attacked, the Israeli military set up an impromptu morgue of refrigerated shipping containers at the Shura defence base in central Israel to identify and prepare the dead for burial. Of the 1,200 people killed that day, authorities said at least 300 were women.
"Often women came in in just their underwear," said Shari Mendes, a reservist who worked for two weeks at the base helping medics with fingerprinting and cleaning female soldiers' bodies.
"Sometimes we had people who – we just had a torso, okay – or they were very decomposed or they were mutilated," Mendes said. "I saw very bloody genitals on women."
Israeli police are investigating possible sexual crimes by some of the few hundred people that they arrested after the Oct. 7 attack. Their goal is to try every suspect they have in custody.
But at the morgue where Mendes worked, the women's clothes were buried with them before police investigators could examine them. In Jewish burial law, the dead must be treated with dignity and laid to rest as soon as possible. Everything that is a part of the body is buried together, so some women were buried with their bloodstained clothes.
"We wiped everything clean of blood," Mendes told Reuters.
It's just one of the challenges facing the investigation into the alleged sexual crimes committed during the attack, the bloodiest in Israel's 75-year history.
At some sites battles raged for days, making it impossible to enter. Some evidence was gathered, but police say they face a challenge after opportunities were lost to gather perishable evidence to link atrocities to specific suspects.
An Israeli military spokesperson told Reuters the first priority in the mass casualty event was to identify corpses so families could be informed as soon as possible. In the first days, many did not know if their relatives were dead, wounded or taken to Gaza.
Israel's justice ministry has said "victims were tortured, physically abused, raped, burned alive, and dismembered." Hamas vigorously denies the allegations of sexual assault or mutilation by members of its armed wing, the Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, on Oct. 7 or after that.
Mendes' account is one of seven given to Reuters by first responders or others dealing with the dead that attest to alleged sexual violence. Those people said they found women semi-naked, bound, eviscerated, stripped, bruised, shot in the head or torched, at two communities including Kibbutz Beeri, and at an open-air music festival near the Gaza border fence.
Reuters reviewed images matching some of the descriptions or attesting to other possible atrocities. However, it could not independently verify all the accounts.
Taher al-Nono, the media adviser to the head of political bureau of Hamas, denied Hamas fighters were responsible for any sexual assaults in the attack and called for "a serious and impartial international investigation into the matter".
A U.N. commission of inquiry investigating war crimes on both sides of the Israel-Hamas conflict will probe the allegations of sexual violence by Hamas, amid Israeli criticism the U.N. had remained silent. Israel accuses the commission of bias and has said it will not cooperate with the investigation.
VICTIMS DEAD, TRAUMATIZED
In Israeli criminal law, sexual violence includes rape, but also indecent acts, harrassment and sexually demeaning a person – including forced nudity – among other offences. A conviction can be based on testimonies and circumstantial evidence even without forensic evidence, three legal experts told Reuters.
But among the obstacles facing police investigators, they have said, is the fact many victims are dead or traumatised.
An estimated "few dozen" surviving victims and witnesses have already sought help, said Orit Soliciano, head of Israel's Association of Rape Crisis Centres, declining to name any to protect their privacy. It can take years before a victim or witness comes forward, she said.
Many purported victims have no voice.
"All the women who were murdered and may have suffered sexual violence cannot tell us," Hila Neubach, director of legal affairs at the Association for Rape Crisis Centres in Israel, told Reuters. "Witnesses perhaps too did not survive."
Authorities have placed a gag order on the investigation but commander Shelly Harush told parliament on Nov. 27 they have 1,500 testimonies on atrocities including sexual violence, rape and genital mutilation from survivors, security forces, first responders and families of victims. At least a dozen graphic testimonies have been shared by government agencies and first responders.
DECOMPOSITION
Sometimes it took days after the Oct. 7 attack to reach the bodies. Chen Kugel, Head of the Israel National Center of Forensic Medicine, said ordinary protocols for forensically proving rape are nearly impossible when bodies arrive in such a stage of decomposition. "Maybe if we had checked them in the first 24 hours (that would be possible)," Kugel said.
Even in normal times, roughly 80% of sexual offence cases in Israel are closed every year because prosecutors see insufficient evidence, justice ministry data show. Prosecuting the Oct. 7 cases will require a different approach.
"In a criminal case, a specific defendant is convicted of harming a specific victim," said Dana Pugach, law professor at Ono Academic College. "They will have to look at an entirely different legal construct in this case."
Prosecutors could rely on a legal doctrine of shared responsibility, she said – one used in Israel earlier this year to convict 11 people of sexual violence for gang rape.
For that, proof of intent and co-conspiracy will be needed.
TESTIMONY
The testimonies are mounting. At the Shura base, Rabbi Israel Weiss told reporters some bodies were naked and "torn apart."
Nachman Dyksztejn, a volunteer for Zaka Search and Rescue who was at the festival, wrote in testimony shared by Zaka with Reuters that he saw dozens of dead women in shelters: "Their clothing was torn on the upper part, but their bottoms were completely naked."
Concert producer Rami Shmuel, who helped in the festival searches for casualties, said he saw the bodies of three women, one naked and the other two stripped from the waist down. One was clearly shot in the back of the head, he said, and torched.
Police say they have over 60,000 "visual documents" including videos from Go-Pro cameras worn by attackers, CCTV footage and images from drones.
Online video clips amplify the allegations. Some of those purporting to show sexual violence could not be authenticated – one seen by Reuters appeared to date to 2021.
The news agency verified the locations of two other videos that suggest sexual violence, shared on social media within a day of the attack. Reuters could not confirm who first posted them.
Of these, one showed the half-naked body of a woman from the festival, later publicly identified by her mother as tattoo artist Shani Louk, slung across the back of a pickup truck and paraded through Gaza.
The other showed a young barefoot woman, also identified to Reuters by her mother, being pulled by the hair from the trunk of a van in Gaza and shoved into its back seat by an armed man amid shouts of "God is great." Her hands are tied. The seat of her trousers appears bloodied as do her ankles and arm. The image does not show what happened to her.
Israeli authorities have confirmed Louk is dead. They believe the other woman is alive in captivity in Gaza.
On Nov. 14, police showed reporters footage of an unnamed witness of the festival attack. In it, she said she saw gunmen gang rape one woman and cut off the breast of another and throw it on the street. Later, she said, a gunman shot the woman in the head while raping her. Police declined to name the witness or make her available to Reuters.
Witness accounts alone cannot always secure an indictment or conviction, said legal expert Neubach. But overall, she said, the information already accumulated is reliable enough to determine that sexual and gender-based violence has likely been perpetrated.
COURT
If prosecutions in Israel prove challenging, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague was set up to prosecute those responsible for war crimes. It has already said it has jurisdiction over atrocity crimes committed by Palestinians on Israeli territory that day.
The tribunal can step in if states are unwilling or unable to prosecute war crimes committed by nationals of its members, or on the territory of its members. The ICC says its prosecutor has collected a significant volume of information and evidence.
Israeli lawyers say its evidentiary requirements on sexual violence are less challenging than Israel's. For example, it does not need victim testimony. The non-consent of victims mostly does not need to be separately established if the acts take place during mass atrocities.
Two lawyers told Reuters they are preparing evidence to present there. Tel Aviv-based Yael Vias Gvirsman is gathering evidence for families of 54 victims which will include victims of sexual and gender-based violence, she said. She declined to provide details but said there are a few key witnesses.
But for the Israeli state, the ICC is problematic: Israel does not recognise its jurisdiction – although Israeli individuals and the state itself are free to submit evidence.
"That brings us to sort of, I'll call it the Israeli dilemma," Vias Gvirsman said, referring to where such cases could be judged. Israel may hold some perpetrators but does not have reach of the instigators, commanders or aiders and abetters that the ICC could bring to trial, she said.
She and another attorney expect the Israeli government eventually to turn to the ICC. Israel's Justice Ministry declined to comment on whether it would turn to the tribunal but said it would pursue legal proceedings against those responsible for the Oct. 7 attacks, wherever they are.
"Normally the Israeli Defence Force, the Israel government, would say 'we have no dealings with the ICC,'" Geert-Jan Knoops, lead defence counsel at the tribunal, told Reuters.
"But this is going beyond any imagination. I think Israel has the interest to provide the evidence to the ICC prosecutor and for the Oct. 7 events."
Additional reporting by Peter Hirschberg in Shura, Anthony Deutsch and Stephanie Van Den Berg in Amsterdam and Edmund Blair in London; Edited by Sara Ledwith and Daniel Flynn
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Middle East Business & Economics |
U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSINGAPORE/HONG KONG, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a three-week high on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting pointed to U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer to bring down inflation.Sterling briefly dropped below the $1.2 level to a three-week low, thanks to the stronger dollar, and also suffering from red hot inflation figures released the day before which reinforced fears about the U.K. growth outlook.The pound was last down 0.3% at $1.2015, while the euro shed 0.2% to $1.0157 and the dollar climbed a touch on the yen to trade at 135.25 yen, just off its overnight one week high.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThis left the dollar index up 0.22% at 106.89, its highest since late July."The bigger picture for the dollar is that it's in a strong uptrend," said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at brokerage City Index in Brisbane, adding it has now paused a weeks-long pullback"In some ways, bulls are looking to step back in and I think the Fed minutes gave them a reason to do so."Fed officials saw "little evidence" late last month that U.S. inflation pressures were easing, minutes released on Wednesday showed. The minutes flagged an eventual slowdown in the pace of hikes, but not a switch to cuts in 2023 that traders until recently had priced in to interest-rate futures. read more Traders see about a 40% chance of a third consecutive 75 basis point Fed rate hike in September, and expect rates to hit a peak around 3.7% by March, and to hover around there until later in 2023.In Asian trade the greenback gained most against the Antipodeans, especially the Aussie, which was dragged down as weaker-than-expected wage growth weighed on Australia's rates outlook.The Australian dollar fell to a one-week low of $0.6899, before bouncing back to $0.6916, down 0.3%, following noisy labour data that showed falls in both employment and the jobless rate.The New Zealand dollar was also pinned to Wednesday lows and was last down 0.35% at $0.6258.China's yuan , meanwhile, continued to struggle as weak consumption, low confidence, anaemic credit growth, a property crisis and restrictive COVID-19 policies have cast a long shadow over the prospects for the world's second-largest economy. read more The yuan fell about 0.2% to 6.793 per dollar.It also dropped below its 200-day moving average against the euro. read more ========================================================Currency bid prices at 0731 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Tom Westbrook and Alun John ; editing by Richard Pullin, Sam Holmes and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
To my paid subscribers: I was already halfway through writing my next paid report, but I wanted to get this article out and strike while the iron was still hot on this topic. Rest assured that the next paid stock report will be out by the coming Wednesday. Pinky promise!History is written by the victors - and hence it comes as no surprise that Liz Truss’s capitulation from 16 Downing St has resulted in her being branded as incompetence incarnate. But in an alternate universe, her doppelgänger is currently being hailed for the precociousness of her mini-Budget policies - and as the savior of the post-Brexit UK economy.But what happened in this universe that lead to Truss becoming the shortest-serving UK PM in history (45 days)? We know that it all started with last month’s widely-reported pension fund debacle, that was kicked off with the announcement of the disastrous mini-Budget and led to an unravelling of the pound in forex markets - due to a drop in market confidence of the UK government’s ability to fund its fiscal freewheeling. This ultimately resulted in UK pension funds being forced to unwind their naked LDI exposures as their derivative positions started inviting unserviceable collateral calls. If you’re not following, no worries, as the following excellent resources have got your back:The reason the BoE is buying long gilts; an LDI blow-up | FTBank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets | FTThe big collateral call facing UK pension funds | FTAnalysis: Under water - How the Bank of England threw markets a lifeline | ReutersWhat do soaring gilt yields mean for DB pension funds? | TwitterBut why didn’t Truss and her recently-booted Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng identify a risk of such magnitude in advance? The more astute amongst you will be aware that the pension fund LDI debacle wasn’t a tragedy of solvency - most global pension funds should no longer be underfunded today, as the present value of their future pension liabilities have diminished under the the recent dramatic interest rate hikes globally. Rather, the risk was logistical in nature, as UK pension funds who were unable to post more collateral on their derivative positions (and didn’t want to leave their LDI positions naked) needed more time to obtain the necessary approvals for posting collateral in excess of their pre-determined risk budgets. We’re talking about a week at most, during which their solvency was never under question. But because the pound was falling at such a rapid pace and interest rate hikes were expected to continue unabated, UK pension funds who unwinded their LDI positions themselves contributed further to the pound’s self-fulfilling downward spiral - as their peers were incentivized to follow in their footsteps and subscribe to the doom flywheel. Ultimately, this required the Bank of England to step in and halt the pound’s relentless fall by essentially promising “Whatever It Takes” with quasi-Yield Curve Control (pun intended) at the tail-end of the yield curve. Still following? Then you would agree with me that this is a very forgivable sort of offense, as something like an logistical oversight (in contrast to a solvency oversight) was relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things, and would have been very difficult to identify from the extremely high vantage point of the ivory towers at 16 Downing St. While it certainly remains Kwasi’s and Truss’s responsibilities to have prevented this earlier, it would have been the kind of mistake I could see myself making as well. The nature of the risk would be described similarly to a black swan risk. However, what’s done is done - and both actors have taken responsibility by falling on their swords to usher in a new epoch of Tory leadership. Still the question remains - if this logistical muddle didn’t metamorphosize into a beast of such epic proportions, what would Kwasi’s and Truss’s economic plan for the UK economy have looked like? Surely with their initial shows of confidence, they had lengthy discussions with their Cabinet into the wee hours of the morning discussing the place of a post-Brexit UK in the new world order. What would those grand ambitions for the UK have looked like? Or in an alternate universe, what would PM Truss be celebrated for in a few years’ time?That’s what we’re here to discuss. Fair warning - I think Lizzy and Kwasi could have been right. In an alternate universe, of course. Before I map out Truss’s war plan, we’re going to need some context. For the sake of brevity, I’m going to assume that most of you have read the news lately and that there’s no need to repeat what’s already in the public sphere - i.e. how Trussonomics would have rendered the UK economy in absolute shambles due to its unbridled fiscal indiscipline. If you need a refresher on how irresponsible the mini-Budget policies could have been, Google is your best friend. The basic criticism of Trussonomics can be boiled down to the fact that it never explained how it would fund its ambitious policies. There were wonton fiscal measures aimed at stimulating the economy and raising the post-Brexit UK economy back on even competitive footing with its EU economy brethren - such as the unpopular ditching of bankers’ bonus caps to attract foreign talent, cuts to the National Insurance payroll tax to alleviate rising energy burdens, and tax cuts for banks & insurance companies aimed at restoring the UK’s legacy position as a global financial center. I won’t go into all the details here, but I don’t really need to. All you need to know to understand why it was so unpopular amongst even its main beneficiaries was that there was no explanation about how to reconcile the planned fiscal expenditure with the national budget. The articles below do a much better job of explaining this predicament than I ever will - so have a look at them if you want to understand what a massive hole the mini-Budget would have created in the UK’s government budget (on a steady-state basis):Mini-Budget response | IFSLasting effects of ‘mini’ Budget will be felt far beyond the trading floors | FTAmidst a political climate of rapidly rising inflation partly contributed by a faraway war on Europe’s eastern border, it is completely understandable why a fiscally irresponsible budget would have been unpopular and stoked the tensions it did. The basic idea here was that runaway fiscal spending into an abyss would have fueled even further domestic inflation, eventually leading to the UK following in the footsteps of Turkey and Argentina - for the simple reason that money wasn’t free. In fact, it was precisely these fears which led foreign investors to sell their pounds which sparked the panic in forex markets that got the ball rolling in the first place. Now throw in a sprinkle of Tory political infighting - and you have the perfect recipe for an encore of ‘Snapping of the Rubberbands’. However, both Kwasi and Truss could have been perfectly aware of these factors even before they announced the mini-Budget - and yet they pushed it through anyway. On one hand, it could simply mean that they were ridiculously incompetent - in fact, this is the consensus narrative right now. However, applying Howard Marks’ second-level thinking would naturally lead one to ask - what if the duo weren’t absolute idiots? What if we gave them the benefit of the doubt, and entertained what a mini-Budget could have looked like if it was actually a well thought-out plan? What if Kwasi and Truss had tortured themselves over the political implications of their unpopular policies, but ultimately still pushed it through despite the costs - because they genuinely believed that the tradeoffs to the UK economy were worth it? What would that endgame look like?Put your tinfoil hat on, McFly - we’re going Back to the Future. As we’ve discussed above, the pension fund debacle was mainly due to a logistical error rather than a legitimate solvency issue - and would readily qualify as a black swan risk in nature due to how insignificant a delay spanning a week would ordinarily have been in contrast to an economic masterplan spanning 20 years. I’m not trying to justify the duo’s mistakes, but let’s be honest - we’ve all made tiny oversights of this nature that eventually compounded into monsters at our own jobs as well. Hence, let us assume that the pension fund debacle never occurred, and that Kwasi and Truss were given a chance to see their mini-Budget to fruition. What was the endgame of Trussonomics? How did Kwasi and Truss envision the future of the UK economy, and its place within the wider global economy? What did they actually seek to achieve?Firstly, let us start with the UK economy’s competitive position in the present-day. Post-Brexit, the future of the UK economy has been reduced to a shadow of its former self - it isn’t an export economy, with net exports effectively being 0% of its GDP (exports: 27%, imports: 28%). While this implies that their domestic economy is self-sufficient, there also isn’t a lot of room for excess growth when you are already a mature economy like the UK. And with London slowly but surely relinquishing its legacy status as Europe’s financial center to Brussels, it’s not surprising why some might feel that the UK will eventually lose its luster on the world stage. Now throw in the massive unfunded fiscal stimulus that the mini-Budget was supposed to introduce. Without a hefty amount of net exports contributing a steady current account surplus, this yawning chasm of a domestic deficit would have eventually led to a balance of payments gap - prompting legitimate fears of a sterling crash as foreign investors fled the pound for safer pastures (which actually did happen). To be clear, the Bank of England (BoE) has ample foreign reserves at an estimated USD 100B and should be able to sufficiently manage a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ forex decline - so the much bandied-about solvency issue of the UK economy wasn’t an urgent problem which they had to solve overnight. How would Trussonomics have managed this deficit? Well, the strategy of supply-side economics is basically that lower taxes and greater government investment would eventually lead to higher productivity in the real economy - which would then lead to higher tax contributions that would offset the initial tax cuts. As an example, the mini-Budget was clearly designed to attract a greater inflow of capable foreign talent which would ideally generate more profits in the domestic banking sector, and therefore contribute more taxes than the existing steady-state economy ever could. Likewise, a cut in payroll taxes should enable more consumer spending which could revitalize the pandemic-hit ailing UK economy. This is all within the status quo, and most of you would already know this.However, for all its merits, the mini-Budget still left a loose end unsolved - the inability to fund its own expenses. It would not be completely inaccurate to say that all the supposed future benefits from the ambitious growth policy was based on hopes and dreams - hopes that increased real productivity would materialize from a lower tax burden, and dreams that supply-side economics would eventually trickle down to the masses. There was no room for mistakes, as the consequences of miscalculation would result in the aforementioned yawning chasm of a domestic deficit potentially contributing to a balance of payments crisis the likes of Turkey - according to opposition politicians, anyway. This left only further government borrowing for funding as a course of action - and with the UK’s public debt-to-GDP already standing at 85% and its systemic debt-to-GDP at nearly 270%, further indebtedness was clearly not an option. And when you’re swimming in a hostile political environment fueled by both rebels within your own party and Labour, the calculated risk gets turned into a political narrative of Armageddon and the death of Empire. However, I’ve already mentioned how Kwasi and Truss could have already been aware of what was at stake prior to announcing the mini-Budget - and yet they decided to push it through anyway, with the presumption here being that they thought the risk tradeoff was justified. Obviously, the logistical nightmare which snowballed into the pension fund debacle didn’t help - but again, we’re giving them the benefit of the doubt here that it didn’t happen. So what gives in the original plan had the UK pension funds not folded? How did Trussonomics plan to solve the unfunded aspect of the mini-Budget?Here’s where we leave the realm of empiricism and step into the territory of anecdotes. My personal belief is that leaving the mini-Budget unfunded was part of the plan. The endgame of Trussonomics was to allow inflation and the sterling decline in forex markets to run its course - and emerge on the other side with the currency sporting much weaker purchasing power, and perhaps even trading below parity to the USD. Of course, the Exchequer would have discussed risk management strategies amply with the BoE before pulling the trigger - and both sides might have determined in advance that the gradual slide of the pound could be manageable and unproblematic. But letting a weaker forex (resulting from high inflation) serve as a release valve for the balance of payments pressures would have been part of the plan. Let’s explore what this course of action would have meant for the UK economy. Firstly, it would have made the sterling more affordable for foreign parties, which could have potentially stimulated and created a stronger domestic export sector - something the post-Brexit UK economy sorely needs for its long-term sustainability. This would also have helped fund the “new UK’s” balance of payments to a certain extent, since there would be a relative increase in the current account. Secondly, it would also have helped stimulate real productivity, owing to the inflow of foreign capital and talent into the country. However, there’s also a much more ingenious mechanism at play as well - an opportunity for the UK to reduce its untenable debt-to-GDP. As we’ve mentioned above, the UK’s govt debt-to-GDP is currently sitting at a lofty 85% - hence being able to reduce the country’s debt-to-GDP will go a long way towards enabling the current stimulus plan and creating fiscal headroom for the future. Imagine pulling off fiscal stimulus at the same time as reducing your govt debt-to-GDP - if pulled off effectively, it would have been a magic solution akin to ‘killing two birds with one stone’. HOW DOES THIS WORK? For this, I have to thank the esteemed Russell Napier for his recent interview which explores the future of global economics. He talks about much more than just this topic in his interview - but basically, the idea is that there are actually two ways to reduce a country’s debt-to-GDP. One, you approach it in a straightforward manner by paying down debt. Two, you deliberately stoke inflation in your currency - such that nominal GDP grows by faster than the increase in nominal debt. Of course, this wouldn’t really do anything for real GDP growth - since high inflation offsets high nominal GDP growth. But since debt doesn’t experience inflation, you can very effectively reduce your debt-to-GDP in this manner if you are willing to embrace the pain of high inflation - which a UK policymaker could frictionlessly blame on the war in Ukraine in the current geopolitical environment. It is an enchanting one-two punch that knocks the light out on fiscal indebtedness and stimulates the economy at the same time - this is the economic equivalent of transmuting lead into gold.In fact, Russell goes on to explain how this approach towards reducing debt-to-GDP was actually the status quo approach for countries seeking to reduce their high debt levels immediately after WW2. It would be completely within the ordinary for a central bank governor to observe the historical success of such an approach, and seek to implement it again in the present-day to solve the current high levels of public indebtedness. Reading this article actually helped me draw intuitive parallels to Abenomics ‘three arrows’ and China’s past decade of relentless SoE stimulus into non-productive sectors - both countries whose fiscal policies I had never fully wrapped my head around before, and both of which also sport implausibly high levels of systemic debt-to-GDP. You can read more about my take on China’s systemic indebtedness in my article linked below from around a year ago:In fact, it’s not just the aforementioned countries who might be seeking to reduce their public debt-to-GDP in this manner. The article linked below was written by a different Russell (who is also an excellent macro analyst), and helped me connect the dots of this debt alleviation approach to recent US Fed and Treasury policy. I’d invite you to read his article in full to get his complete take - but the general idea here is to encourage a return to the pro-labour policies of the FDR era in order to effect the aforementioned inflationary policies to reduce public indebtedness. I would highly encourage anyone with an interest in exploring what the future landscape of global macro might look like to read the above articles by both Russells in detail. Reading these really helped me collect all my disparate thoughts about macroeconomics together into a cohesive global macro narrative - and provided much-needed insight to fill in the gaps of my understanding regarding the current global macroeconomic landscape and its possible future trajectory. In any case, this final piece of the puzzle helps us answer the question of what the endgame of a successfully executed Trussonomics policy might have looked like:The unfunded mini-Budget could have enabled domestic stimulus and greater competitiveness on the global stage, inviting the classical benefits of supply-side economics such as higher real productivity which could offset the tax cuts - at the expense of high inflation;A deliberate and managed depreciation of the sterling (resulting from high domestic inflation) could have contributed stimulus resulting from greater foreign investment - which might have encouraged a stronger domestic export sector in a post-Brexit UK economy. This would help increase the current account surplus and improve their balance of payments position;The resulting high but managed inflation would also have contributed to greater nominal GDP growth, which would have reduced the UK’s nominal debt-to-GDP - enabling the possibility of further stimulus via debt, or simply greater fiscal headroom to withstand external shocks. This was the established post-WW2 playbook of countries who sought to reduce their high levels of debt-to GDP, so credibility for such a strategy already exist. Of course, all of this assumes that the logistical bottleneck experienced by the UK pension funds never happened - which to be fair, is a leap of faith to make. But suffice to say, it is amply possible to justify Trussonomics as a legitimate approach to economic policy which could have resulted in a stronger “new UK”. In an alternate universe, the Truss/Kwasi duo from Earth 47 would have spotted the potential pension fund flaw in the plan and easily mitigated the fallout from it in advance - especially given its relative insignificance as compared to the sheer and grand scale of the aforementioned masterplan. For the Truss in our universe to have fallen to such a triffling foe is really a shame - for as we can see in the above narrative, this was no “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jelly” of a plan. If there was one mistake that Truss could perhaps be blamed for, it might be that she did not sufficiently consider the scale of the political fallout from any potential failure in such an ambitious policy. Any nail who sticks out too much invites being hammered; and with treasonous infighting still prevalent within her own party and a deteriorating domestic economy spiraling out of control, any policy as unpopular as tax cuts for the rich begs serious reconsideration. Perhaps she found assurance within the altruism of her actions - that her mini-Budget was genuinely in the best long-term interest of the UK economy and that the wider public would eventually come to appreciate her willingness to sacrifice her political interests to do what was right for the country. If so, she might have miscalculated the extent of the vicious backbiting nature of parliamentary politics - as well as the self-defeating complexion of the tragedy of the commons. I would also like to qualify that I am no expert in UK macroeconomics, and there could just as likely be an equally fatal flaw in my entire narrative which renders the lifespan of this whole thesis shorter than lettuce. However, it is my experience that the best way to discover your blind spots is by being wrong on the Internet - and I would happily embrace such pushback, as it would further help me refine my understanding of the current global macro environment. On my part, I would like to personally thank Miss Truss and Mr Kwasi for such exemplary thinking and their spirited fight for the greater good. I hope someone helps me share this article to them in their present time of difficulty. Perhaps the philosopher kings of Plato live on. P.S. For anyone who thinks that this article was written in support of one political party or another, I literally live >6,000 km away from London. I really couldn’t care less about whether Tory or Labour controls the UK Parliament. Read our Disclaimers | United Kingdom Business & Economics |
Last Saturday, Australians recently exercised their right to vote and resoundingly rejected a proposed constitutional change. The ballot in question sought to recognise Indigenous Australians with a "Voice" to Parliament, a body designed to advise Parliament on Indigenous affairs. With voting being compulsory in Australia, the outcome was could not have been clearer: 39 percent said “Yes” while 61 percent said "No."
Why did the proposal fail? The immediate reason was that it lacked bipartisan support. It was championed by Anthony Albanese, Australia's center-left Prime Minister, as well as prominent Indigenous advocates such as Marcia Langton and Noel Pearson. But it was not championed by the Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, and the centre-right parties that make up the Coalition.
Nevertheless, early polls had indicated support for the idea of an Indigenous voice. But this was arguably because voters did not know that the “Voice” would require constitutional change. When the proposal's implications for changing the Constitution became apparent, doubts crept in. Why not legislate the change first? The absence of a testing phase made people wary. Innovation often entails unforeseen challenges, and in the realm of Aboriginal affairs, the gap between intentions and outcomes is substantial.
The “Yes” campaign garnered support from major corporations, sports organisations, religious associations, and various celebrities and was very well-funded. "Yes" campaign ad spending far outstripped that of the "No" campaign.
Albanese justified his support by claiming that Indigenous people overwhelmingly desired it. However, when two charismatic Indigenous figures emerged as the faces of the "No" Campaign, this explanation became less straightforward.
The first figure was Warren Mundine, a Bundjalung man, known for his successful careers in both politics and business. Mundine, a moderate on political matters, rejected the Voice proposal, arguing that "centralised, government dependence" would not solve the problems plaguing Aboriginal communities. He believed that economic development, rather than identity politics, held the key to unlocking Aboriginal aspirations.
The second prominent figure was Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, a Senator from the Northern Territory, which has the largest Aboriginal population in Australia. Price emerged as one of the most persuasive figures in the campaign, advocating for the rejection of grievance politics and presenting a vision of a unified Australia.
"Australians desperately want to do the right thing for their fellow Australians, regardless of their background," she said during an address to the National Press Club on September 14.
Price expressed concern that the proposed Voice would lead to legislated separatism based on racial heritage, perpetuating grievance and victimhood among her people.
Price's stance was a shock to the progressive establishment, which has for decades promoted a two-pronged strategy of drawing attention to historical grievances while advocating for more government intervention in order to solve them.
In contrast to the establishment, Price urged for a more honest conversation around Indigenous affairs. This honest conversation would dispense with the widespread romantisation of pre-colonial life, while facing up to disparate statistics related to incarceration and child protection in the present.
Yet as the official Yes campaign for the Indigenous voice to Parliament gained momentum, many Australians began to experience voter weariness. Australia is experiencing a grinding cost-of-living crisis in combination with a severe housing shortage. Thousands of people are becoming homeless every month. For a great many Australians, focusing on the Voice seemed like a distraction.
However, amidst this weariness towards the Indigenous voice campaign, it's important to recognise that Australia's political system, from secret ballots to compulsory voting, has proven stable and responsive to the people's will. This stability is not accidental; it is by design. And as Price cautioned voters, the Australian Constitution is not a document to be taken for granted or jeopardised for the sake of a "vibe." | Australia Business & Economics |
CANBERRA, Australia -- Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Friday he was confident of securing bipartisan political support in the United States for a deal to provide his country with submarines powered by U.S. nuclear technology.
The so-called AUKUS partnership -- an acronym for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- is being discussed by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in meetings with Albanese and other Australian officials in Brisbane on Friday and Saturday.
Under the deal, Australia will buy three Virginia-class submarines from the United States and build five of a new AUKUS-class submarine in cooperation with Britain.
Australian media have focused on a letter signed by more than 20 Republican lawmakers to President Joe Biden that warned the deal would “unacceptably weaken the U.S. fleet” without a plan to boost U.S. submarine production.
Albanese said he remained “very confident” that the United States would deliver the three submarines.
Albanese said he had been reassured by discussions he had with Republicans and Democrats at a NATO summit in Lithuanian this month.
“What struck me was their unanimous support for AUKUS, their unanimous support for the relationship between the Australia and United States. It has never been stronger,” Albanese told reporters in Brisbane.
Austin and Blinken arrived in Brisbane late Thursday ahead of annual bilateral meetings with their Australian counterparts, Defense Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong.
Marles said the AUKUS program was “on track.”
“Congress can be a complicated place as legislation makes its way through it, but actually we’re encouraged by how quickly it is going through it and we are expecting that there will be lots of discussions on the way through,” Marles told Australian Broadcasting Corp.
“Fundamentally, we have reached an agreement with the Biden administration about how Australia acquires the nuclear-powered submarine capability and we’re proceeding along that path with pace,” he added.
Australia understood there was “pressure on the American industrial base” and would contribute to submarine production, Marles said. The AUKUS deal is forecast to cost Australia up to 368 billion Australian dollars ($246 billion) over 30 years. | Australia Business & Economics |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! On the evening of July 15, 1979, Jimmy Carter gave his infamous "malaise" speech, in which he blamed Americans discouraged by soaring inflation and an energy crisis for losing confidence in our country. Days ago, Joe Biden gave his own malaise speech. Sitting down with an AP reporter for a rare interview, the president described the American people as "really, really down," and repeated: "They're really down. Their need for mental health in America has skyrocketed because people have seen everything upset."Like Carter, the president insisted that he wanted Americans to "be confident. Because I am confident."WHITE HOUSE WORRIED ABOUT JIMMY CARTER PARALLELS TO BIDEN PRESIDENCY AS APPROVAL RATING REMAINS LOW: REPORTBut Americans do not share Joe’s confidence, just as they did not share Carter’s. When consumer sentiment and small business confidence hit an all-time low – worse than when our country is in the midst of a pandemic or in a deep recession – something is terribly wrong. That’s where we are now, according to the University of Michigan and the NFIB, which track the nation’s mood. There are many parallels between Joe Biden’s first year and a half in office and Carter’s presidency: soaring inflation, a looming recession, international crises and an energy shortage, for starters.With the benefit of hindsight, there are also five lessons Joe Biden should learn from Carter.CNN REPORTER SAYS BIDEN 'WORSE THAN JIMMY CARTER' ON INFLATION, AMERICANS 'HOLDING HIM RESPONSIBLE'Lesson one is the critical importance of energy independence. After the 1979 revolution in Iran, a sudden dip in global production tightened markets, just like we’re seeing today from the war in Ukraine, which has cut Russian oil exports. OPEC raised prices 9% in 1979, which quickly led it higher gasoline prices for Americans and unhappy voters. The vulnerability of the U.S. to global supply shocks then – and today -- stemmed partly from declining domestic production. Sen. Joseph Biden points out a friend in the crowd at the Padua Academy to President Jimmy Carter during a fundraiser. As Carter explained, "In little more than two decades we’ve gone from a position of energy independence to one in which almost half the oil we use comes from foreign countries, at prices that are going through the roof. Our excessive dependence on OPEC has already taken a tremendous toll..."Two years ago, under President Trump, we were energy independent for the first time since 1957; the pandemic and Biden’s war on fossil fuels have caused U.S. production to slump, adding to upward price pressures on oil.'CLAY & BUCK' RIP 'JIMMY CARTER WITHOUT THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS' BIDEN FOR FAILING FAMILIES COPING WITH INFLATIONThe second lesson is the danger of price controls. Richard Nixon had imposed widespread wage-price controls beginning in August 1971. The price of domestically-produced crude oil was set by the federal government below the price charged on imports; when Carter lifted price controls in April 1979, oil companies were being paid $9.65 a barrel on average, while imports were priced at is more than $16. The result of this cock-eyed program was sinking U.S. production. In December 1970, the year before controls were imposed, the U.S. produced 10 million barrels per day of oil, a level not reached again until 2017, when higher prices and new technology boosted output. Biden, whose approval ratings on managing the economy are in the tank, is doubtless tempted to impose new controls on oil prices. That would be a mistake.BIDEN PRESS OFFICE PLAGUED BY NEGATIVE COVERAGE, MESSAGING GAFFES AS MEDIA SIGNALS ‘HONEYMOON IS OVER’The third lesson is that a windfall profits tax, such as that being encouraged today by Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., do more harm than good. When Carter ended price controls on oil, he worried that Americans would resent the inevitable rise in prices at the pump. To offset any political hit he might suffer, he urged Congress to pass a windfall profits tax. President Carter speaks to the citizens of Elk City, Oklahoma, at a town meeting, fulfilling a campaign pledge to return after his election. Congress did so and Carter signed a windfall profits tax in 1980, which was eventually repealed in 1988. As the Congressional Research Service reported, the tax was lifted because it resulted in declining U.S. oil production, disappointing receipts and a greater dependence on imports. Lesson number four is that presidents are expected to take responsibility for problems that arise during their time in office, and to be honest with voters. Carter’s "malaise" speech, which does not, by the way, include the word "malaise," was honest, and from the heart. Carter admitted that "I’ve worked hard to put my campaign promises into law, and I have to admit, with just mixed success." CLICK HERE TO GET THE OPINION NEWSLETTERBut he also discussed a "crisis of confidence" in the country, saying that it "strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our Nation."In words that resonate today, Carter described "a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning."And he criticized the American people, saying "In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption."That speech won Carter an 11-point pop in his approval ratings, but the gains were short-lived, which brings us to Lesson Five.Two days after Carter’s famous speech, he fired nearly his entire cabinet, which unnerved voters and reinforced the idea that the White House was adrift. The lesson is: voters expect a steady hand at the helm. Joe Biden does not have a steady hand; he appears weak, erratic and dishonest.CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPRonald Reagan blasted Carter’s pessimistic assessment of America and easily ousted the Democrat president. President Ronald Reagan gives a thumbs up on the South Lawn of the White House after returning from Massachusetts. (Cynthia Johnson/Getty Images)Prior to his election, Reagan said, "I find no national malaise, I find nothing wrong with the American people. Oh, they are frustrated, even angry at what has been done to this blessed land. But more than anything, they are sturdy and robust, as they have always been."The American people preferred Reagan’s confidence and optimism and made Carter a one-term president. There’s a lesson there.CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM LIZ PEEK Liz Peek is a Fox News contributor and former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company. A former columnist for the Fiscal Times, she writes for The Hill and contributes frequently to Fox News, the New York Sun and other publications. For more visit LizPeek.com. Follow her on Twitter @LizPeek. | Inflation |
Pakistan's likely new Finance Minister Ishaq Dar walks upon his arrival at the Nur Khan military airbase in Chaklala, Rawalpindi, Pakistan September 26, 2022. Prime Minister's Office/Handout via REUTERSRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryPakistan's Ishaq Dar says he will take up role as fin minDar says he wants a stable and strong currencyAppointment comes at time of economic crisis, floodsKARACHI, Pakistan, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Pakistan prime ministerial aide Ishaq Dar said on Monday he would take up the role of finance minister for the fourth time, adding that he wanted to get Pakistan out of its economic rut and stressing he wanted a strong and stable rupee.Ahead of his formal appointment, the rupee had risen throughout the day after reports that he would take up the role, a change that comes in the midst of an economic crisis in Pakistan that has been exacerbated by deadly floods."Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has asked me to accept the responsibilities of finance minister," Dar said in a statement broadcast on state television on Monday evening. "By the grace of God, I will try my best to get Pakistan out of this economic rut."Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comDuring a previous tenure ending in 2017, Dar said Pakistan was going to become the world's 18th strongest economy, but the South Asian country is facing economic turmoil, exacerbated by widespread floods estimated to have cost it nearly $30 billion.Dar is taking office, for the fourth time, with the challenge of getting the economy out of one of its worst balance of payment crises that has seen foreign reserves falling to a month of imports.The IMF board last month approved the seventh and eighth reviews of a bailout programme, allowing for a release of over $1.1 billion."Interest rate was lowest, the growth was highest, with the blessing of God, in decades, other macroeconomic indicators were excellent, reserves were highest, rupee was stable," Dar said on Monday of his 2013-17 tenure."So, we will be trying to get to that direction, that we stop the way the economy has been falling, and we change its direction."The rupee rose 1.1% in interbank trading and over 3% in the open market after opening firmer in Monday's morning session as investors anticipated Dar's appointment, the state bank and forex exchange association said.Dar has favoured a strong currency in his previous tenures as finance minister - from 1998-99, 2008 and 2013-17."The Dar factor is at play. There are memories of how he kept the dollar rate stable," said Fahad Rauf at Ismail Iqbal Securities."There is no way (the rupee) can sustainably move against the tide in the current scenario," Rauf said in reference to the dollar strengthening against all currencies.CHANGE AT A TIME OF ECONOMIC CRISISCurrent Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Sunday he would quit - the fifth holder of the job to go in less than four years during persistent economic turbulence. read more "God is sending me back to the same office," Dar said in a video statement telecast by local TV channels, referring to the finance ministry he quit after he flew to London in 2017 for medical check-ups amid pending corruption cases, which he says were politically motivated.His arrest warrants have been suspended by an anti-graft court until Oct. 7, making his return to Pakistan possible.The ruling party has repeatedly said it inherited a wrecked economy from former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was ousted in a vote of no-confidence in April - an accusation dismissed by Khan.As the new government took over, the rescue programme with the IMF was in the doldrums because of a lack of an agreed policy framework.Ismail said he pulled the country out of a near default, but markets did not respond positively, with the rupee tumbling to a record low and inflation crossing over 27%.Unpopular decisions Ismail took to adhere to the IMF preconditions, including rolling back power and fuel subsidies given by Khan in his last weeks in power, saw inflation rise above 27% and the rupee tumbling to historical low.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comWriting and reporting by Asif Shahzad in Islamabad; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Nick MacfieOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Asia Business & Economics |
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden said Thursday the American people are “really, really down” after a tumultuous two years with the coronavirus pandemic, volatility in the economy and now surging gasoline prices that are slamming family budgets. But he stressed that a recession was “not inevitable” and held out hope of giving the country a greater sense of confidence.Speaking to The Associated Press in a 30-minute Oval Office interview, the president emphasized the battered economy that he inherited and the lingering psychological scars caused by a pandemic that disrupted people’s sense of identity. He bristled at claims by Republican lawmakers that last year’s COVID-19 aid plan was fully to blame for inflation reaching a 40-year high, calling that argument “bizarre.”As for the overall American mindset, Biden said, “People are really, really down.”“The need for mental health in America, it has skyrocketed, because people have seen everything upset,” Biden said. “Everything they’ve counted on upset. But most of it’s the consequence of what’s happened, what happened as a consequence of the COVID crisis.”That pessimism has carried over into the economy as record prices at the pump and persistent inflation have jeopardized Democrats’ ability to hold on to the House and Senate in the midterm elections. Biden addressed the warnings by economists that fighting inflation could tip United States into recession.“First of all, it’s not inevitable,” he said. “Secondly, we’re in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation.”As for the causes of inflation, Biden flashed some defensiveness on that count. “If it’s my fault, why is it the case in every other major industrial country in the world that inflation is higher? You ask yourself that? I’m not being a wise guy,” he said.The president said he saw reason for optimism with the 3.6% unemployment rate and America’s relative strength in the world. But restoring confidence so far has eluded Biden, whose approval ratings have been in steady decline as he has lost support among Democrats and has little evidence to show that he could restore a sense of bipartisan normalcy to Washington.Biden’s Oval Office is filled with the portraits of presidents who faced crises that have imperiled the country, and the president acknowledged there were parallels to his own situation. A picture of Franklin Delano Roosevelt hangs over his fireplace, a place of prominence because the historian Jon Meacham told Biden that no president had come into office with the economy in such dire circumstances. There is also a painting of Abraham Lincoln, who became president with a nation brutally divided and on the verge of the Civil War.Yet Biden’s remedy is not that different from the diagnosis made by former President Jimmy Carter in 1979, when the U.S. economy was crippled by stagflation. Carter said then the U.S. was suffering from a “crisis of confidence” and “the erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.”The president said he wants to endow the U.S. with more verve, fortitude and courage.“Be confident, because I am confident we’re better positioned than any country in the world to own the second quarter of the 21st century,” Biden said. Biden’s bleak assessment of the national psyche comes as voters have soured on his job performance and the direction of the country. Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s performance as president, according to a May poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research, dipping from already negative ratings a month earlier.Overall, only about 2 in 10 adults said the U.S. is heading in the right direction or that the economy is good, both down from about 3 in 10 in April. Those drops were concentrated among Democrats, with just 33% within the president’s party saying the country is headed in the right direction.Biden said Republican social policies were contributing to public anxieties. He suggested GOP lawmakers could face consequences in the midterms if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, possibly removing national protections for abortion access. Voters will consider the “failure of this Republican Party to be willing” to respond to “the basic social concerns of the country,” the president said.The president outlined some of the hard choices he has faced, saying the U.S. needed to stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine in February even though tough sanctions imposed as a result of that war have caused gas prices to surge, creating a political risk for Biden in an election year. He called on oil companies to think of the world’s short-term needs and increase production.Asked why he ordered the financial penalties against Moscow that have disrupted food and energy markets globally, Biden said he made his calculation as commander in chief rather than as a politician thinking about elections.“I’m the president of the United States,” he said. “It’s what’s best in the country. No kidding. No kidding. So what happens? What happens if the strongest power in NATO, the organizational structure we put together, walked away from Russian aggression?”Biden spun out the possibility of chaos in Europe if an unimpeded Russia kept moving deeper into the continent, China was emboldened to take over Taiwan and North Korea grew even more aggressive with its nuclear weapon ambitions. Biden renewed his contention that major oil companies have benefited from higher prices without increasing production as much as they should. He said the companies needed to think of the world in the short term, not just their investors.“Don’t just reward yourselves,” he said.Consumer prices have jumped 8.6% over the past year, the steepest rise in more than 40 years. Republican lawmakers have said that Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package from last year kick-started a spiral of price increases.The president said there was “zero evidence” for that claim, noting that other countries have endured higher prices as economies reopened and people became vaccinated. Still, Biden acknowledged Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s contention that the spending had a limited inflationary effect.“You could argue whether it had on the margin a minor impact on inflation,” he said. “I don’t think it did. And most economists do not. But the idea that it caused inflation is bizarre.”Still, high inflation has created a conundrum for Biden. He prioritized bringing back millions of jobs and has seen the unemployment rate return to close to pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday increased its benchmark interest rate, in hopes of slowing the economy and pulling inflation down to its target rate of 2%.The tightening of Fed policy has caused financial markets to slump and led many economists to warn of a potential recession next year. The president encouraged Americans to stay patient.“They shouldn’t believe a warning,” he said. “They should just say, ‘Let’s say let’s see which is correct.’”The president is still trying to steer his domestic agenda through Congress, after an earlier iteration last year failed to clear a 50-50 Senate. Biden said “I believe I have the votes” to lower prescription drug prices, reduce families’ utility bills with tax incentives and place a minimum tax on corporations. He said his plans would lower expenses for many Americans, though the measure would be scaled back from earlier intentions for an expanded child tax credit, universal pre-kindergarten and other programs. “I’m going to be able to get, God willing, the ability to pay for prescription drugs,” Biden said. “There’s more than one way to bring down the cost for working folks.”And then, in acknowledgement of the political restraints he faces, Biden added, “I can’t get it all done.” | Inflation |
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the Biden administration’s policies are not responsible for record-high gas prices, and the only way to fix the energy crisis in the "medium-term" is to move towards "renewables to address climate change." During an appearance on ABC’s "This Week," Yellen was asked to respond to a statement Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute, which said the Biden administration’s "misguided policy agenda shifting away from domestic oil and natural gas has compounded inflationary pressures and added headwinds to companies’ daily efforts to meet growing energy needs while reducing emissions." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on May 10 in Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. (Tom Williams/Pool via AP / Associated Press)Yellen fired back that the historically high gas prices have nothing to do with policies and are reflective of low-producing oil companies. "Well, I don't think that policies are responsible for what's happening in the oil market," she said. "Actually, consumption of gas and fuels are currently at lower levels than pre-pandemic, and what's happened is the production has gone down. Refinery capacity is declined in the United States and oil production has declined. I think that producers were partly caught unaware by the strength of the recovery in the economy and weren't ready to meet the needs of the economy. High prices should induce them to increase supplies over time."PRICE OF GAS SPENDS WEEKEND MOVING LOWER Yellen argued that the best way to address the energy crisis in the "medium-term" is to transition the country off of fossil fuels. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (C) listens to President Joe Biden during a hybrid meeting with corporate chief executives and members of his cabinet to discuss the looming federal debt limit in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Execu (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images / Getty Images)"And look, as a medium-term matter, the way in which we can assure reasonable energy expenses for households is to move to renewables to address climate change, as a medium-term matter," she said. "That's the way to free us from geopolitical movements in oil prices."NEVADANS BLAME BIDEN, COVID-19, RUSSIA FOR RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICESYellen added that President Biden is considering a range of options to help bring down gas prices, including a federal gas tax holiday."President Biden wants to do anything he possibly can to help consumers," she said. "Gas prices have risen a great deal, and it's clearly burdening households, so he stands ready to work with Congress, and that's an idea that certainly worth considering." President Joe Biden and the White House COVID-19 Response Team participate in a virtual call with the National Governors Association from the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building of the White House Complex on Monday, Dec (Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images / Getty Images)CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESSThe national average of a gallon of unleaded gas hit $4.99 on Sunday after hitting an all-time high of $5 for a solid week earlier this month. Biden has blamed the Russian war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic for fueling the price rise and record inflation, while Republicans blame exorbitant government spending and U.S. dependence on foreign oil markets.In its statement last week, the American Petroleum Institute called on the administration to "prioritize unlocking U.S. energy resources – that are the envy of the world – instead of increasing reliance on foreign sources." | Energy & Natural Resources |
October 24, 2022 – Investing Pioneer – 3:18 PM EDT The talk of the town these past few days has been the Japanese Yen. In short, it’s plummeting. In response, on September 22nd, the BOJ intervened to support their currency. By now, it seems they’re doing it every other day. Google Finance: JPY to USD Chaos in the Forex markets has started, and it’s going to get much worse. It’s not just Japan that’s going to have problems. In this article, it is going to be elucidated why this is happening, and what it means for the global economy going forward. Hint: it’s not good. Central banks, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, you name it, are faced with a choice. Weaken their currencies to save the bond market or vice versa. From the onset, once it became clear this would be a problem, the decision all central banks would eventually make was obvious. Save bonds, weakening respective currencies in the process. That presumption is now starting to be validated, starting with Japan. With the effects of policy now being seen (a collapsing Yen), they’re intervening to slow the crash. Some estimates claim the intervention amounts to tens of billions of dollars utilized so far. If they raised rates significantly, the interest on their debt would be so large, inflation would go exponential. Thus, Japan’s determination to keep interest rates low is plunging the Yen to levels not seen in decades (relative to USD). With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 1366% (as of June 2022), it only makes sense the clear effects of collapse start with the Japanese Yen first. Meaning, it can serve as a canary in the coal mine. Albeit, with a relatively late predictive capacity. When interest rates are kept low and inflation is high, a question arises. Who would want to hold that? Could there possibly be high demand? The answer would be no. Not natural demand at least. Artificial demand on the other hand… Because of this setup, the BOJ must ramp up intervention (buying) in the bond markets to keep rates low. Remember, if rates rise, interest payments on their debt quickly spiral out of control, and total economic calamity ensues. Considering these conditions, one would expect the Bank of Japan is a major holder of bonds. Bond Ownership Nears 70%
-Bloomberg Indeed, they are. This should not be the case in a stable system. There is too much debt, and it shows. The byproduct of this bond-buying program is a weakening Yen as the USD strengthens (relative to other currencies) because US treasury rates are rising. That said, all currencies are falling, including the dollar. Do not confuse the strength of the dollar with a rise. The dollar is simply falling slower than other currencies. USD to JPY (Japanese Yen): Google Finance: USD to JPY In response to the sharp weakness in the Yen, Japan’s Finance Minister, Sunichi Suzuki, said this… “Excessive FX volatility caused by speculative trading is undesirable.” And that brings us to the main theme of this article – It’s not the speculators. At least, it’s certainly not the root of the problem. To understand this situation, we’re going to have a look at monetary and economic policy over the past 50 years. There are two fundamental modern monetary systems. One in which the currency is backed by a mostly immutable money, and one that is not backed by a mostly immutable money (some call it fiat). The former allows for stability, and if not impugned upon, limits the potential for inflation to take a foothold in the economy. That said, the latter is not inherently bad, and there are limitations to both systems. The Nixon Shock By 1971, the Bretton Woods monetary system had been in place for 27 years (though not fully implemented until 1958). It allowed the convertibility of currency to gold, thus making the currency gold-backed. On August 15th, 1971, Nixon announced the end of the Bretton Woods Gold Standard by halting the convertibility of USD to gold. “We must protect the dollar from the attacks of international money speculators.”
-President Nixon, 1971 Sound familiar? “Excessive FX volatility caused by speculative trading is undesirable.”
-Sunichi Suzuki Erroneous monetary policy that compounded over the years, both in Nixon’s time and today, eventually leads to instability, an arch-nemesis of governments and central banks. Accordingly, they blame “the speculators”. The culmination of governmental and monetary policy over the past 50 years has led us to this unfortunate point. Not just for Japan, but the entire financial system. Simply, Japan is worst off with regard to debt excesses, and consequently, in its position of weakness, will experience hardship earlier, as we enter this environment that will prove un-survivable for the monetary and economic system in its current state. On a positive note, on the back end of the crisis, economic growth will return. In a market-determined economy, supply and demand are sufficiently regulated (supply and demand principles apply to debt, bonds, etc., and have an effect on the currency). When central banks go too far, supply and demand are distorted to the extent that eventually, reality must catch up. Accordingly, extreme inflation in the coming years is forecasted. Subscribe to Investing Pioneer The prior does not constitute financial or investment advice. The author, nor the site, are, nor construe the role of financial advisors.
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Boost for electric cars
Labour announced a sector deal for the automotive industry which promised to secure supply chains and bolster a skilled workforce to supporting British manufacturing.
The party said it would “remove the barriers for consumers to transition and increase demand for electric vehicles”. The deal would generate two million electric cars and create 80,000 jobs, delivering new battery factories and boosting technical courses in colleges around building electric vehicles, Labour says.
Water bosses face fines
Labour announced it would empower the water regulator to ban company bosses from getting their bonus unless they clean rivers of sewage pollution. It would give Ofwat the ability to ban payment of bonuses to water bosses who are found to pump significant levels of raw sewage into rivers, lakes and seas.
Rail renationalisation
Labour reconfirmed plans to nationalise Britain’s railways if it wins the next general election, saying the move would stop people “shoving blame around the system” when things go wrong.
Louise Haigh, the shadow Transport Secretary, said the plans will form part of Labour’s commitment to “radically overhaul our broken rail system” if the party enters No 10. Speaking at a fringe event at the conference on Monday, Ms Haigh said a Labour government would “bring our railways back into public ownership where they have always belonged”.
Cracking down on wasted money
Rachel Reeves announced Labour would commission an independent expert inquiry into HS2 “to learn the lessons for the future”” about how it was managed.
She said a Labour government would keep tabs on the speed and cost of major infrastructure projects by setting up a new, central, cross-departmental infrastructure acceleration unit.
And she promised to crack down on the amount of money spend on consultants, with a target to reduce spending by half – or £1.4 billion – over the next parliament.
Ms Reeves said Labour would want to reduce the amount of money spend on ministerial use of private jets when travelling abroad, and appoint a “Covid Corruption Commissioner” to try to chase after fraudsters who made money from dodgy Covid contracts.
On Day one of the conference, the party announced:
£1.1bn to boost NHS workforce
Labour will pump £1.1bn into the NHS to pay doctors and nurses more to work overtime in an attempt to bring down waiting lists. The policy will rely on staff voluntarily covering extra shifts, but the leadership admitted the payments would be less than can be earned in the private sector.
The proposals will be funded by scrapping non-domiciled tax status, and will, Labour says, enable the NHS to provide an extra two million operations, scans, and appointments in the first year.
Clean energy grid
The party has announced plans to “build a clean energy grid” to speed up the development of green power. Labour unveiled plans to speed up National Grid connections as part of plans to use green energy to ease delays in the transition
It would use its proposed publicly owned energy company – GB Energy – to help secure the supply chains the grid needs to expand, opening the door to future competition to build the grid at the same time.
The party said this would “grow the economy, cut bills, boost energy security, and unlock over £200bn of investment into communities” across the country.
Labour added that the “queue for grid connections is growing out of control” and billions of pounds worth of projects were delayed.
Gay conversion therapy ban
Labour would introduce a ban on gay conversion therapy that would include protections for transgender people, the party announced. Shadow women and equalities minister Anneliese Dodds said the party would bring forward a “no loopholes” ban on the practice – which is when people attempt to supress someone’s sexuality or gender identity.
People responsible for anti-LGBT+ hate crime would also receive the “tougher sentences they deserve”, Ms Dodds added. Concerns have been expressed in Parliament in recent weeks over the whereabouts of the Government’s draft proposals to ban conversion therapy.
Workers’ rights
Deputy Leader Angela Rayner reiterated the party’s promise to toughen up workers’ rights within the first 100 days of taking office.
The Deputy Party Leader told Labour’s conference in Liverpool that plans to boost protections for gig workers and enshrine basic employment rights from the first day of starting a job had not been watered down. Media reports following Labour’s national policy forum this year had suggested the plans had been weakened.
Ms Rayner said Labour would close the gender pay gap, make work more family-friendly, and tackle sexual harassment. “And we won’t stop there. We’ll ensure that unions can stand up for their members. We will boost collective bargaining, to improve workers’ pay, terms and conditions,” she added.
1.5 million homes in five years
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer promised Labour would build 1.5 million homes within five years of taking office. i revealed over the weekend that Labour would tax private developers to fund more social housing and look to build new towns along railway lines as part of its plan to tackle the housing crisis.
Other measures under consideration include giving local authorities greater powers for compulsory land purchases and building on some green-belt areas. | Renewable Energy |
BENGALURU, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Indian shares rose on Friday, led by gains in banks and energy stocks, as investors assessed comments of the country's central bank after it hiked a key policy rate for the fourth straight time, on expected lines, to bring down persistently high inflation.The NSE Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) rose 0.9% to 16,964, as of 0519 GMT, and the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) gained 0.95% to 56,935. The indexes had taken a pause ahead of the policy announcement as investors remained circumspect.The Reserve Bank of India raised the key policy repo rate by 50 basis points–inline with economists expectations–on Friday and said it will stay focussed on withdrawal of monetary accommodation. [nL4N310162]Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe central bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) has hiked the key policy rate by 190 bps since May to 5.9% to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed sticky above the RBI's tolerance limit of 6% since January."Going forward, the domestic policy may continue to be driven by the global monetary tightening cycle and aggressive stance of (U.S.) Federal Reserve reducing our degrees of freedom," said Garima Kapoor, economist, institutional equities at Elara Capital.The rate sensitive Nifty bank index (.NSEBANK) rose 1.9%, while the financial index (.NIFTYFIN) gained 1.6% and the energy index (.NIFTYENR) added 1.4%.Shares of Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.NS) rose 3.4% and was the top gainer in Nifty 50 index after the RBI said Indian crude oil basket average was projected around $100 a barrel in second half of the yearRBI, which has spent massive amounts of forex reserves to arrest the currency's fall against the strong U.S. dollar, said that the context of adequacy of foreign exchange reserves is always kept in mind while intervening.The RBI signalled that foreign exchange interventions are likely to continue to defend any extreme volatility in the rupee, said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Rama Venkat and Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | India Business & Economics |
SummaryStrong U.S. jobs and high CPI forecast strengthen hike betsAussie touches 2-1/2 yr low below $0.64Sterling under renewed pressureChina markets to return from week-long breakSYDNEY, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The dollar held its ground on Monday as investors set their sights on data later in the week that is expected to show red-hot inflation after a strong U.S. labour market reinforced bets on higher interest rates.U.S. unemployment unexpectedly fell last month, Friday figures showed, and inflation data due on Thursday is forecast to show headline inflation at a hot 8.1% year-on-year. Policymakers' preferred core inflation is seen rising to 6.5%.Westpac strategist Sean Callow said the data and rising yields in response was a "robust combination for the dollar."Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"It's further evidence that the U.S. economy is not cratering," he said. "It just feeds into the notion that the Fed is going to spend the next three weeks saying the same thing about interest rates."Nomura analysts said the market, and the Fed, will want to see a series of falling monthly inflation readings before expecting a definite pause in hikes from the Fed.Climbing oil prices and geopolitical tension also provided plenty of reasons for nervousness about growth, weighing on energy-importer currencies in Europe and even on exporters such as the growth-sensitive Australian dollar.The Aussie fell 0.3% to a 2-1/2 year low of $0.6347 in early trade in Asia that was thinned by a holiday in Japan. Sterling fell 0.1% to $1.1077, while the yen was drifting into a zone on the weaker side of 145 per dollar that prompted authorities' intervention to support it last month.The yen was last at 145.46 per dollar. The New Zealand dollar touched a two-week low of $0.5593.Futures pricing suggests traders see a nearly 90% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in the United States next month and more than 150 bps of tightening by May. Ten-year Treasury yields rose for a tenth straight week last week.Benchmark Brent crude futures jumped more than 11% last week after the Saudi-led production cartel agreed to cut supply, while the intensifying war in Ukraine is also a threat to Europe's energy security as winter approaches. Brent eased off on Monday, slipping 87 cents, or 0.89%, to $97.05 a barrel by 0344 GMT.The euro fell below $0.98 on Friday and was last at $0.97335. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.009% at 112.82, off lows around 110 last week and creeping back toward last month's 20-year high of 114.78.Markets were waiting to see how the Kremlin might respond to a blast that hit Russia's only bridge to Crimea. Nuclear-armed North Korea made a seventh recent missile test over the weekend.Chinese markets reopened after a week-long holiday, with the yuan opening at 7.1000 per dollar and hovering at around 7.1109 per dollar at around 0200 GMT. The Communist Party's 20th National Congress opens on Sunday and is expected to reaffirm Xi Jinping's leadership.Services activity in China shrank for the first time since May in September, disappointing expectations, with the country also recording 422 million tourist trips over the last week, 18.2% lower than last year, mainly due to Covid curbs."The yuan will likely trade between 7.0 and 7.2 in the near term," said Scotiabank strategist Qi Gao.========================================================Currency bid prices at 0357 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Tom Westbrook, Additional reportng by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore. Editing by Sam Holmes and Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Inflation |
The much-awaited India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is set to be signed by both countries by month-end here, with all outstanding issues having been resolved, an official source told FE.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will travel to India late October to sign the ambitious agreement that is expected to spur two-way trade in goods and services between the two economies as well as increase capital flows in the form of foreign direct investment.
Early last month, Sunak while being here for the G20 Leaders’ Summit had said he and prime minister Narendra Modi were keen to see a “comprehensive and ambitious trade deal” concluded, but said that there was “still some hard work to be done,” and that, the pact must “work for both the countries.”
“All the contentious issues in the proposed FTA have been resolved,” an official aware of the negotiations told FE.
However, the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) will be signed later as common ground has not been reached so far, he added. Till a BIT is signed, the India-UK Infrastructure Financing Bridge will address any bilateral issues in investments, the official added.
BIT, the Rules of Origin and intellectual property rights (the latter two under the FTA) were some of the issues that were proving to be contentious in the negotiations. From the Indian side, the demand for easier visas for professionals was seeing some resistance from the UK.
The differences in services have been sorted out on the lines of the UK’s FTA with Australia which came into force from May 2023, the source said.
The FTA talks between India and the UK started in early 2021.
In the services sector, the UK demanded national treatment for its services businesses and greater freedom for its professionals to operate in India. This has been agreed to. National treatment means treating foreigners and locals equally with regard to rules and regulations. It also means equal access to opportunities for overseas operators and not doing anything that puts them at a disadvantage.
The areas of services that the UK was interested in are financial services, business and professional services, and transport services. It also wanted a liberalised visa regime for its business travellers to give them greater opportunities to operate in India.
“In services, professionals moving from India to the UK or the other way round are most likely to be Indian nationals or of Indian origin, so the issues have been sorted out,” the source said.
With the ongoing diplomatic spat with Canada likely to affect the flow of Indian professionals to Canada, the UK FTA could provide some succour to India. India has halted FTA negotiations with Canada.
In FTA with the UK, Australia has secured ambitious commitments on the mutual recognition of professional qualifications and providing greater certainty for skilled professionals entering the UK labour market.
Among the other issues, the duties on whiskey and automobiles were the two most sensitive issues in the FTA talks as far as India was concerned.
In the auto sector, the reduction of tariffs on imports from the UK would be calibrated in a way that its impact on local manufacturing is minimal. In the spirits trade also both the countries have narrowed their positions on immediate duty cuts, speed of cuts in coming years and other conditions.
In wines and other spirits India may reduce import duty from 150% to 100% and then bring it further down to 50% over the 10-year period. The UK had demanded a reduction of duty to 75% straight away and then bringing it down to 30% in the next three years.
Notwithstanding the high duties, the import of scotch whiskey has grown to 7.5 million cases in the calendar year 2022 from 5.5 million cases in 2021 driven by Mumbai. Total bottled liquor imports in 2022 were 8 million cases.
In traditional export sectors like textiles, leather UK has agreed to India’s demand for bringing down duties to zero.
India’s merchandise exports to the UK increased 9.03% on year in FY23 to touch $ 11.4 billion while imports rose 27% to $8.9 billion. FDI from the UK stood at $1.7 billion in FY23 as against $1.6 billion in the previous year. India’s main exports to the UK are ready-made garments and textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, petroleum and petrochemical products, transport equipment, spices, machinery and instruments, pharmaceuticals and marine products.
The main imports from the UK include precious and semi-precious stones, ores and metal scraps, engineering goods, professional instruments other than electronics, chemicals and machinery. | India Business & Economics |
If you can't beat 'em, join 'em seems to be the unofficial mantra of two new exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, recently filed as a way to track the trading of U.S. Congressional members and their families.Subversive Capital filed a Form N-1A on Sept. 15 to establish two ETFs that will follow exactly how Democrat and Republican members of Congress are trading. Subversive Capital is working with Unusual Whales — a retail trading tool for individual stocks, options and crypto — to provide data for the ETFs.The Democrat-tracking ticker will be named NANC, after Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, while the Republican-tracking ticker will be called KRUZ, after Sen. Ted Cruz.Recently, the subject of congressional members trading stocks has raised questions regarding the potential for insider trading and conflicts of interest, leading to the introduction of legislation that would restrict those in Congress from being able to buy and sell individual stocks. Until that legislation is passed, though, you will soon be able to bury your own investment dollars into following their trades, passively, once the new ETFs are released.Here's what you need to know about the political implications of Congressional stock trading and the new ETFs that are being created to track it.Subscribe to the Select Newsletter!Our best selections in your inbox. Shopping recommendations that help upgrade your life, delivered weekly. Sign-up here.The rules of Congressional stock tradingAccording to the STOCK Act, which was passed in 2012, members of Congress are required by law to file any stock trades with the Securities and Exchange Commission within 45 days.Unfortunately, this provides little value to everyday Americans since the markets can change drastically from the time when a member of Congress enacts a trade to when it becomes publicly available. The fines for not abiding by the rules are also negligible compared to the major stock-trading profits being made — just $200 for first-time offenders.Over the last 10 years, members of Congress have received major scrutiny for using their positions of power for their own profit during a historic bull market — Jacobin, a popular left-leaning magazine, even labeled Rep. Pelosi as the 2021 Wall Street Trader of the Year.As much as there are valid points being made for government officials to be involved in the markets, Andrew Lautz, director of federal policy at the National Taxpayers Union, argues that they shouldn't be considered average participants for two reasons — because they have access to privileged information, and because their policy proposals and decisions have the ability to move such markets.As a result, legislation is currently in the works to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks, a move that has gained bipartisan support. But for now, those in Congress can still buy and sell stocks at their pleasure — and it's possible for you to get in on the potential profits as well.Here's how the new ETFs will workBoth ETFs, NANC and KRUZ, will have one simple objective — to help you follow the trades of both Democrat and Republican members of Congress and their spouses. The actively managed funds will track their trades based on their public filings, which are required by the aforementioned STOCK Act.Because these are actively managed exchange-traded funds that require constant buying and selling, the ETFs will charge investors a 1% management fee. That's quite pricey compared to passively managed funds such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, VOO, which charges a fee of just 0.03% to participate.Each ETF will have between 500 to 600 individual stocks at a time. With lawmakers and their family members racking up an estimated $355 million worth of stock trades in 2021, according to an article by MarketWatch, it appears these funds will be regularly shifting their stock positions.As of this writing, a launch date for the new ETFs has yet to be determined. It's also unclear what will happen to the two new ETFs if the congressional stock trading ban does eventually pass.How you can get started investingWhile the ethics of members of Congress trading stocks is still up for debate, there are always a number of opportunities for everyday investors to enter the market.Keep in mind that while our elected leaders may want to take their chances when it comes to buying and selling individual stocks, it's nearly impossible to effectively buy and sell stocks and beat proven indices such as the S&P 500 over time. In fact, even Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, says the majority of investors should stick to buying index funds to foster long-term growth.If you're still interested in watching the stock market and day-trading stocks, consider using the 90/10 strategy — in other words, keep 90% of your portfolio invested in steady long-term growth index funds or ETFs, and leave the remaining 10% to speculate with. That way, worst-case scenario, if you completely lost that 10%, you'd still have another 90% set up to grow for the long term.Here are a few of our favorite accounts to help you get started on your investing journey:FidelityFees/commissions$0 for stocks, ETFs, options and some mutual fundsAccount minimum$0Investment optionsStocks, bonds, fractional shares, ETFs, mutual funds, optionsProsSome ETFs don’t have expense ratiosMobile app is easy to useNo commissions on many types of securitiesConsNo futures or forex tradingHigh fees for broker assisted tradesCharles SchwabMinimum deposit and balanceMinimum deposit and balance requirements may vary depending on the investment vehicle selected. No account minimum for active investing through Schwab One® Brokerage Account. Automated investing through Schwab Intelligent Portfolios® requires a $5,000 minimum depositFeesFees may vary depending on the investment vehicle selected. Schwab One® Brokerage Account has no account fees, $0 commission fees for stock and ETF trades, $0 transaction fees for over 4,000 mutual funds and a $0.65 fee per options contractBonusNoneInvestment vehiclesRobo-advisor: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios® and Schwab Intelligent Portfolios Premium™ IRA: Charles Schwab Traditional, Roth, Rollover, Inherited and Custodial IRAs; plus, a Personal Choice Retirement Account® (PCRA) Brokerage and trading: Schwab One® Brokerage Account, Brokerage Account + Specialized Platforms and Support for Trading, Schwab Global Account™ and Schwab Organization AccountInvestment optionsStocks, bonds, mutual funds, CDs and ETFsEducational resourcesExtensive retirement planning toolsTerms apply.WealthfrontOn Wealthfront's secure siteMinimum deposit and balanceMinimum deposit and balance requirements may vary depending on the investment vehicle selected. $500 minimum deposit for investment accountsFeesFees may vary depending on the investment vehicle selected. Zero account, transfer, trading or commission fees (fund ratios may apply). Wealthfront annual management advisory fee is 0.25% of your account balanceBonusNoneInvestment vehiclesInvestment optionsStocks, bonds, ETFs and cash. Additional asset classes to your portfolio include real estate, natural resources and dividend stocksEducational resourcesOffers free financial planning for college planning, retirement and homebuyingTerms apply.Bottom lineWhile there are many ethical and political issues to consider when it comes to matters of investing, for now, these two new ETFs would allow you to actively invest similarly to our members of Congress.Before you get started on your own investment journey, it's important to check in on other goal-related items you may want to accomplish, such as paying down high-interest debt or putting money aside in an emergency fund — stashing your money in a high-yield savings account would garner a higher return and offer a higher interest rate than a traditional savings account.Once you've taken care of those, investing for the future can be a great step toward accomplishing more of your financial goals, such as owning a home or saving for retirement.Editorial Note: Opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the Select editorial staff’s alone, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any third party. | Stocks Trading & Speculation |
NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point as it continued to battle the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years, but signaled future increases in borrowing costs could be made in smaller steps to account for the "cumulative tightening of monetary policy" it has enacted so far.The policy decision set the target federal funds rate in a range between 3.75% and 4.00%, the highest since early 2008. The U.S. central bank has raised rates at its last six meetings beginning in March, marking the fastest round of rate increases since former Fed Chair Paul Volcker's fight to control inflation in the 1970s and 1980s.STORY: read more MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The S&P 500 (.SPX) briefly turned higher, then lost 38.15 points, or 0.99%, to 3,817.95BONDS: Benchmark 10-year note yields initially fell then rose to 4.0484%, vs 4.052% late on Tuesday. The 2-year note yield likewise turned higher to 4.5552%, vs Tuesday's 4.541%.FOREX: The euro was little changed up 0.14%COMMENTS:MELISSA BROWN, global head of applied research at Qontigo in New York“(The market) does seem to like it so far, not the hike today but maybe the hinting future hikes would be smaller although I would argue that has kind of been the market’s mindset for a few weeks now. So expectations were met they weren’t necessarily exceeded in this latest commentary.”“Just looking at the volume data it seems the vast majority of people were sitting on the sidelines and saying we are just going to wait to see what happens. And the minute (Powell) is done talking they are going start to focus on what he is going to say next time.”“There may be less chance he is going to spook the market but if they decide these jobs numbers are just indicating the interest rate increases haven’t worked yet, it could spook the market the other way, that the next interest rate could be higher. I don’t think anybody is out of the woods.Obviously, they are very careful about the language they choose, he wouldn’t just throw that out there as a throwaway statement. Rates are up so much that the data is backward looking and the economy is a huge ship – you can’t turn it on a dime – and you don’t want to overdo so maybe it is not that surprising not just that he would say that but that is actually their plan.”TIM GHRISKEY, SENIOR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST, INGALLS & SNYDER, NEW YORK"The statement and the market's reaction indicate that the Fed remains serious about combating inflation and is doing the right thing to get there. ... There were some feelings they might only raise 50 basis points. Investors are glad that the Fed is attacking inflation and being aggressive about it."BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“The Fed is finally acknowledging that they’ve already done a lot and it might be prudent to slow the pace of hikes. You can’t keep popping pills until you feel better. Sometimes you have to wait for the medicine to take effect.”JOSEPH SROKA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NOVAPOINT, ATLANTA“Certainly, the idea of returning inflation to normal is still the Fed’s full objective, but the interest rate increases over time are starting to take a cumulative effect and the Fed will likely view its future actions on monetary policy through the lens of the cumulative effect of the rate hikes.”“That means it’s likely we may start to see smaller increases at future FOMC meetings to fine-tune policy instead if these axe swings at inflation, the 75 basis point increases. They my start to whittle away at a more measured pace at future meetings.”“As much as investors were made to read the tea leaves in the past, (Fed Chairman) Jerome Powell has been fairly transparent about the Fed’s intentions all year. If he says ‘were going to look at the cumulative effects’, that’s what they’ll do, and they will be more data dependent.“The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Interest Rates |
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, September 14, 2022. REUTERS/StaffRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryEuropean stocks bounce after two days of fallsFed looms over broader markets; risk of 100 bp hike next weekChina property stocks buoyed by hopes of official helpIntervention risk keeps dollar short of 145 yen barrierLONDON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Stock markets were sluggish and the dollar and bond yields shuffled higher on Thursday as the likelihood of a further jump in global borrowing costs, including a possible 100 basis point U.S. rate hike next week, kept the bears on the prowl.Europe's main bourses made a positive start after two days in the red , but the Japanese yen - pummelled to a 24-year low this month - drooped again as Tokyo posted a record trade deficit overnight. read more It was a big day too for the crypto markets with a major software upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain dubbed the "Merge" taking place read more .Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comChina's central bank had refrained from providing more support overnight although there had been some welcome signs of support elsewhere for the country's battered property market.The broader focus however remained squarely on the risk of rising interest rates and painfully high energy prices causing recessions.Credit rating firm Fitch became the latest to slash its world economy forecasts while bond markets were watching the German yield curve flatten markedly - another classic recession indicator."We’ve had something of a perfect storm for the global economy in recent months," Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton said, blaming "the gas crisis in Europe, a sharp acceleration in interest rate hikes and a deepening property slump in China".The dollar, which has soared this year amid the jump in U.S. interest rates and global scramble for safety, was showing its strength again.Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates another 75-100 basis points next week pushed the greenback back up 0.3% against the yen , after the yen jumped on Wednesday when Bank of Japan calls to FX desks triggered intervention talk. read more The euro was again back below parity against the dollar. It was down 0.15% at $0.9964 and not too far from a 20-year low of $0.9864 hit last week. Britain's pound, which has also been hammered over the last month , likewise was 0.25% softer at $1.15115. /FRX"The (Bank of Japan) steps were in reality the last efforts to halt JPY depreciation before actual intervention," MUFG's European global markets research head Derek Halpenny said."But it is also highly likely that there is still a deep reluctance on the part of the authorities to intervene," he added, on the view that such action might not be successful in the current environment.Japan has not intervened in forex markets since 2011 and back then it was to restrain an overly strong yen.Yen's biggest drop in decadesFLAT AND FLATTENINGTokyo isn't the only Asian capital concerned about currency weakness. South Korea's won bounced off a near 13-year low overnight as it appeared that its authorities had been dishing out verbal FX intervention again.Among the main stock markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) turned during the session to finish down 0.2%. The Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.2% though, while the main Hong Kong property index (.HSMPI) surged over 4% after reports that some Chinese developers were finally being allowed to slash prices.The world's second-largest economy narrowly avoided contracting in the second quarter as widespread COVID-19 lockdowns and the slumping property sector badly damaged consumer and business confidence.With few signs China will significantly ease zero-COVID soon, some analysts expect the economy to grow by just 3% this year, which would be the slowest since 1976, excluding the 2.2% expansion during the initial COVID hit in 2020."Equity markets are presently in no-man's land," said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies in Hong Kong."Better macro news to support earnings is discounted as (there is) the need for further tightening to quash growth – while CPI prints are not declining fast enough," he said.S&P 500 futures , Dow and Nasdaq futures were all broadly flat, pointing to a slow day on Wall Street later.Fed funds futures , which were dumped along with stocks after Tuesday's stubbornly hot U.S. inflation reading but were helped by lower producer price figures on Thursday, imply a 30% chance of a 100 basis point rate hike next week. They have the benchmark U.S. interest rate as high as 4.3% by February.Two-year U.S. yields , which track near-term rate expectations, edged up to 3.029%, bringing the rise for the week so far to 23 basis points in a seventh straight weekly gain.European moves saw the 2-year German yield rise 2.5 bps to 1.435% leaving it just off its highest since July 2011. . Germany's 10-year yield, the euro zone's benchmark, rose 4.5 basis points (bps) to 1.746%.ING analysts said that comments by European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane on Wednesday had endorsed the hawks' narrative. It "is another clue that the central bank has experienced a significant shift in its reaction function," they wrote.Later in the day European trade data is due and Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Russia's Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan.In oil markets, Brent crude futures dipped 24 cents to $93.86 a barrel. Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $1,689 an ounce, having steadily slipped as the dollar and U.S. yields have gone up.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAdditional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo in Milan, Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Wayne Cole in SydneyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Europe Business & Economics |
How the Biden team is planning for a postwar Gaza Strip
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not like the ideas, but he also may not get a say.
Biden administration officials have spent weeks quietly drafting a multiphase postwar game plan that envisions a revamped Palestinian Authority ultimately taking over the Gaza Strip.
It’s an imperfect solution, but American officials view it as the best of only bad options for a territory where a war between Israel and Hamas militants has shattered infrastructure, killed thousands of Palestinians and displaced more than 1.5 million others. It also could put the U.S. on a collision course with the Israeli government.
Officials at the State Department, the White House and beyond have been laying out pieces of the strategy in multiple position papers and interagency meetings since mid-October, according to two U.S. officials, a State Department official and an administration official familiar with the discussions.
Although Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others in the administration have publicly declared that a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority should run the strip, they haven’t unveiled details of how that would work.
But they’ve already run into resistance from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has effectively ruled out a future Gaza role for the Palestinian Authority. Israeli officials for the most part are unwilling to discuss much beyond the current war, which was sparked by a vicious Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 Israelis.
Still, the U.S. strategists drawing up the plans keep coming back to the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank but has long been beset by allegations of corruption and inefficiency. It’s the most viable option, they say.
“We’re stuck,” the State Department official said. “There’s a strong policy preference for the PA to play a governing role in Gaza, but it has significant legitimacy and capability challenges.”
The broad vision emerging from the internal talks is that of a multiphase reconstruction of Gaza once the heavy fighting between Israeli troops and Hamas militants ends. An international force will be needed to stabilize the region in the immediate aftermath, followed by a revamped Palestinian Authority taking over long-term.
Key parts of the plan include increasing security-related aid that the State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs offers the Palestinian Authority and allowing for a bigger role for the U.S. Security Coordinator, which has a track record of advising Palestinian security forces, the officials said.
“Ultimately, we want to have a Palestinian security structure in post-conflict Gaza,” a senior Biden administration official said.
All of the officials were granted anonymity to discuss a highly sensitive topic. They stressed that the ideas being floated are nascent and subject to many unpredictable variables. U.S. officials expect the heavy fighting to last several more weeks, at least.
A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council declined to comment.
Any strategy set forth by the United States will face numerous obstacles, including Israeli skepticism and Arab frustration, even though regional players and analysts generally agree that Washington will need to play a critical role in the postwar phase.
“How you get there and what actually exists in Gaza to do that is really, really hard, as there isn’t a clean or easy answer,” one of the U.S. officials said.
The planning process is spearheaded by senior National Security Council official Brett McGurk. He is being assisted by Terry Wolff, a veteran of the Defense and State departments now at the NSC.
Other key figures involved include Barbara Leaf, Dan Shapiro and Hady Amr, who hold key Middle East roles at the State Department. The State Department units that deal with the Middle East and policy planning are involved, but other parts of the government are weighing in as needed.
Perhaps the trickiest immediate challenge is figuring out who will play a role in stabilizing Gaza in an interim post-fighting phase.
While Arab countries have appeared hesitant or outright unwilling to provide troops for Gaza, in more recent conversations some have seemed more open to the idea, the second U.S. official said. The Biden administration has ruled out sending U.S. troops. One idea that’s been bandied about is asking the United Arab Emirates to help rebuild health facilities or train civil servants.
The United Nations could play a role in Gaza in a postwar phase, at the very least on the humanitarian front, the second U.S. official said. However, the Israeli government is not a fan of the U.N., viewing it as biased against Israelis.
Neighboring Egypt is likely to play a major role in a postwar Gaza. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s suggestion that a future Palestinian state be demilitarized with a temporary international security presence has made the rounds in Biden administration circles.
“The big unknown is what exactly is going to be left of Hamas in Gaza,” the senior Biden administration official said. Even if the group’s numbers are low, their access to weapons could dramatically alter the calculus of countries considering sending troops.
One thing the United States hopes to see is more clear denunciations of Hamas by Arab rulers, many of whom privately despise the Islamist militant group, which they see as a potential threat to their own governments. Hamas wrested control of Gaza away from the Palestinian Authority more than 15 years ago.
The key to getting many Arab leaders on board for serious postwar planning appears to be that the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel is the ultimate end goal.
The State Department official said American officials are largely motivated by that same outcome, but planning at the moment centers on stabilizing Gaza. One reason President Joe Biden and his aides have refused to call for a long-term cease-fire is that they support the Israeli objective of destroying Hamas, which Washington views as a major obstacle to a two-state solution.
The current Palestinian Authority is disliked by many Palestinians, who view it as corrupt, out of touch and weak. It has not held an election in years and is run by 88-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, who has yet to clearly denounce the Hamas attack.
A spokesperson for the Palestinian Authority could not be reached for comment. Abbas is reported to have previously said that the Palestinian Authority won’t take over Gaza on the back of Israeli tanks, meaning it does not want to be seen as a puppet.
Although U.S. officials — including Biden himself — use the word “revitalized” to describe their hopes for a future Palestinian Authority running Gaza, words like “reformed,” “revamped” or “restructured” are probably more applicable.
In response to a request for comment from the Israeli government, an Israeli official, granted anonymity to discuss an issue still under review, said “the gap between the United States and Israel is much smaller than what meets the eye.”
“Both administrations agree that the PA in its current form cannot govern Gaza,” the official said. “A revitalized, reformed one might be able to do it. But we’re still not in discussions about what exactly this reform should look like.”
Still, it’s not clear what — if any — level of change to the Palestinian Authority would satisfy Netanyahu or his political allies.
Netanyahu has at times called for a new Palestinian governance structure in Gaza while also suggesting Israel should have some sort of general security control. His comments have not always been consistent, but they do not suggest an openness to future Palestinian Authority rule in Gaza.
The Israeli leader has long been accused of intentionally trying to undermine the Palestinian Authority as a way to avoid the creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu insists the Palestinian Authority is not a serious partner in the quest for a two-state solution and that it promotes hatred against Jews.
That said, it’s also unclear how much longer Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition will be in charge of Israel. Netanyahu is deeply unpopular, with many Israelis blaming him for the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. U.S. officials expect his eventual departure from the scene, but he’s managed political comebacks before.
U.S. officials haven’t had as much luck as they’d like in getting Israeli leaders to discuss in a meaningful way what a postwar Gaza will look like, the administration official said. And some analysts and officials in Washington worry that even trying to define what counts as the end of the war will over time become a point of contention between Israel and the United States. It’s not as if someone will blow a whistle and everyone lays down arms.
“The Israelis are in no mood to talk about the day after,” the administration official said. “They’re very much focused on today, the day of, so there hasn’t been a whole lot of traction there.”
Despite this, there’s virtually no internal Biden administration talk of conditioning U.S. military aid to Israel as a way to pressure the country to agree to some of the ideas under discussion in Washington, the State Department official said.
In an interview that aired this weekend on ABC News, Ron Dermer, a top Netanyahu aide, downplayed the idea of a Palestinian state, although he said an eventual political settlement could be reached with the Palestinians.
“I know that everybody is racing forward right now to try to establish a Palestinian state. For the people of Israel, they don’t even understand that because we just suffered the equivalent of 20 9/11s,” he said. “And I think the last thing you want to do is send a message to any terror group that the way you’re going to achieve some sort of aim is to perpetrate a massive terror attack.”
As it plans ahead, the Biden administration is consulting outside analysts, civil society activists and others, some of whom warned of potential pitfalls.
For one thing, Arab countries in the region cannot even agree among themselves how to approach a postwar scenario, and those are the countries the U.S. hopes will fund any reconstruction.
There’s also the U.S. presidential election in 2024. If a Republican wins, they are likely to defer even more to Israel’s wishes, even if that angers America’s Arab partners in the Middle East.
American officials mapping out the various scenarios are struggling because of the many variables involved. Unlike Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which the Biden administration saw coming months in advance, the Hamas attack was a surprise to the U.S. establishment.
Nearly two months in, “people are fried,” the administration official said.
The senior administration official sounded a more optimistic note: “We have identified every possible contingency,” the official said. “As things unfold, our hope is to be able to seize the moment.”
Brian Katulis, an analyst with the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank, urged U.S. officials to try to help better organize Arab countries so that they can have a clearer voice in the direction of the conflict.
He sympathized with the frustrations of U.S. officials trying to solve the latest puzzle in the decadeslong Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“It’s sort of like the Choose Your Own Adventure book that you don’t control, because the circumstances will define what the possibilities are,” he said.
Alexander Ward contributed to this report. | Middle East Business & Economics |
Turkish lira banknotes are seen in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comISTANBUL, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira was steady against the U.S. dollar on Friday after nearing record lows in the previous session as Turkey's central bank shocked markets by cutting its main interest rate to 13%.The currency stood at 18.0985 as of 0703 GMT, nearly flat from its close on Thursday when it weakened by more than 1% and briefly hit 18.15, its weakest since Dec. 20, after the surprise rate cut.Turkey's central bank trimmed its benchmark rate by 100 basis points and said it needed to keep driving economic growth despite inflation touching nearly 80% and a monetary tightening trend among its peers worldwide. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"It is important to evaluate rate cut decisions together with the increase in forex reserves in the last couple of weeks. Tourism is very strong and forex income through exporters is high. Apart from that there is an inflow from Russia of around $5-$6 billion," a senior banker said."The central bank could be thinking the reserves will increase further. I want to think they took the rate cut risk with guaranteed foreign financing flow," added the banker, who was speaking on condition of anonymity.The bank had held its main rate at 14% for the past seven months after cutting it by 500 basis points towards the end of last year. That policy easing sparked a currency crisis in December that sent inflation soaring. The lira has lost more than 27% against the greenback so far this year.The central bank's policy-setting committee said it needed to act because leading indicators pointed to a loss of economic momentum in the third quarter and the new policy rate was "adequate under the current outlook".Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note that Turkey's macroeconomic policy mix had become more unsustainable with the latest decision and forecast annualised inflation to rise to more than 90%.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Nevzat Devranoglu and Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Kim Coghill and Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Inflation |
A woman sits on an empty domestic cooking gas cylinder at a distribution centre, amid the country's economic crisis, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, July 23, 2022. REUTERS/Adnan AbidiRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comCOLOMBO, July 25 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka will restrict fuel imports for the next 12 months because of a severe shortage of foreign exchange, its energy minister said on Monday, as the island nation's new government seeks to find a way out of a crippling economic crisis.The country of 22 million has been grappling with a lack of essentials, including fuel and medicines, for months, after its foreign exchange reserves ran dry because of economic mismanagement and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."Due to Forex issues, Fuel imports has to be restricted in the next 12 months," Sri Lanka's Minister for Power and Energy, Kanchana Wijesekera, said in a tweet, explaining the rationale behind a fuel rationing system that will be implemented this week.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe rationing system is among the first steps that Sri Lanka's new President Ranil Wickremesinghe will take to ease the impact of the crisis after taking office last week following a victory in a parliament vote.His predecessor, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, fled the country and then resigned earlier this month after mass protests against his mishandling of the economy, with protesters storming his official residence and office.Sri Lanka also reopened its schools on Monday after severe fuel shortages and political unrest kept them closed for nearly a month.However, public sector employees have been asked to continue working from home for one more month, the government said in a circular issued on Sunday.Lanka IOC, the country's second largest fuel retailer, will import two fuel shipments of around 30,000 tonnes each in August, its managing director Manoj Gupta said."We are working collectively with the government to reduce the pain and our priority is to supply to industries," Gupta told Reuters.Sri Lanka is in talks with the International Monetary Fund about a bailout package worth up to $3 billion, while it also seeks help from allies, including neighbouring India and China.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comWriting by Devjyot Ghoshal
Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Asia Business & Economics |
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CANBERRA, Australia (AP) — U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday the United States stands with countries fighting Chinese “bullying behavior” as he launched bilateral talks in Australia aimed at countering Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Australian city of Brisbane late Thursday ahead of annual bilateral meetings on Friday and Saturday that will focus on a deal to provide Australia, a defense treaty partner, with a fleet of submarines powered by U.S. nuclear technology.
READ MORE: China-U.S. ties at a crossroads but could possibly stabilize, Xi tells Kissinger
Ahead of a meeting with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Austin said both countries share concerns about China’s break from international laws and norms that resolve disputes peacefully and without coercion.
“We’ve seen troubling P.R.C. coercion from the East China Sea, to the South China Sea, to right here in the Southwest Pacific,” Austin told reporters, referring to the People’s Republic of China.
“We’ll continue to support our allies and partners as they defend themselves from bullying behavior,” he added.
China has imposed a series of official and unofficial trade barriers in recent years against Australian exports including coal, wine, barley, beef, seafood and wood. The barriers are widely seen as a punitive reaction to Australian government policy that has cost Australian exporters as much as $15 billion a year.
Australia’s icy relationship with Beijing was thawing since a change of Australian government at elections last year. Meanwhile, the sharing of U.S. nuclear secrets with Australia takes that bilateral relationship to a new level.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is planning state visits to both the United States and China before the end of the year.
Under the AUKUS partnership — an acronym for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States — Australia will buy three Virginia-class submarines from the United States and build five of a new AUKUS-class submarine in cooperation with Britain.
Australian media have focused on a letter signed by more than 20 Republican lawmakers to President Joe Biden that warned the deal would “unacceptably weaken the U.S. fleet” without a plan to boost U.S. submarine production.
Albanese said he remained “very confident” that the United States would deliver the three submarines.
The prime minister said he’d been reassured by discussions he had with Republicans and Democrats earlier in July at a NATO summit in Lithuania.
“What struck me was their unanimous support for AUKUS, their unanimous support for the relationship between the Australia and United States,” Albanese said.
Marles agreed the AUKUS program was on track.
“Congress can be a complicated place as legislation makes its way through it, but actually we’re encouraged by how quickly it is going through it and we are expecting that there will be lots of discussions on the way through,” Marles said.
“Fundamentally, we have reached an agreement with the Biden administration about how Australia acquires the nuclear-powered submarine capability and we’re proceeding along that path with pace,” he added.
Australia understood there was “pressure on the American industrial base” and would contribute to submarine production, Marles said. The AUKUS deal is forecast to cost Australia up to 368 billion Australian dollars ($246 billion) over 30 years.
Albanese publicly welcomed Austin and Blinken at a media event before the three began a meeting with Marles, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, U.S. Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy and Australian Ambassador to the United States Kevin Rudd, a former prime minister.
“The relationship between Australia and the United States has never been stronger,” Albanese told the two visitors.
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When the United Arab Emirates first signed the Abraham Accords in 2020—normalizing relations with Israel—its rulers hailed the agreement as a means to encourage and cajole Israel to take positive steps toward ending its occupation and annexation of Palestinian territory. Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco followed suit.
But the real premise of the Accords was proving that the Palestinian issue was no longer an obstacle for Israel’s relationships in the region, as Arab states dropped their demand for a Palestinian state as a condition to normalizing ties with Israel. The pact promised regional security despite allowing Israel to bypass the rights of 6 million Palestinians living under daily brutality, military occupation, and apartheid rule to establish alliances with authoritarian regional regimes. As many of us predicted at the time—myself included—that was always bound to fail. The shocking Hamas attack on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people in Israel, has now made that clear to all.
Rather than curbing Israeli abuses, the Accords emboldened successive Israeli governments to further ignore Palestinian rights. In the first year after the Accords, settler violence dramatically increased in the West Bank. Following the election of Israel’s most right-wing government in history in 2022, cabinet ministers openly called for the annexation of the West Bank and announced massive settlement expansions. In the year leading up to Oct. 7, Israeli forces had already killed almost 200 Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel has rained destruction on Gaza since the Hamas attack, killing at least 15,500 people, 70% of them women and children, while floating plans echoed by Israel’s Intelligence Minister to forcibly displace Gazans to Egypt and pushing the Egyptian government to offer them permanent housing and residence permits in the Sinai. Dozens of scholars have described Israel’s campaign as a genocide.
Read More: Listening to the Youth Voices of Gaza
Let’s be clear: Continued Arab adherence to the Accords signals continued support for Israel, rewarding it with the military, economic, and trade development that were always the primary goal. That is why we at the Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a rights group set up by Jamal Khashoggi, have publicly called on the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan to immediately withdraw from the Accords and, alongside peace treaty signatories Egypt and Jordan, end all military coordination with Israel.
Bahrain has already inched in that direction, with its parliament proclaiming it was ending all economic ties to Israel after sending the Israeli ambassador home. Arab states hosting U.S. military bases, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, also should publicly declare that they will not permit the U.S. to use these bases to supply weapons to or provide protection for Israeli forces during its ongoing war in Gaza, or risk being seen as complicit.
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Both the Trump and Biden administrations hailed the Accords as an important effort to expand peace in the Middle East, going so far as to coax signatory Arab states with a host of goodies to persuade them to establish a formal relationship with Israel. These include selling 50 long-desired F-35 fighter jets to the tiny UAE; recognizing Morocco’s illegal annexation of Western Sahara, making the U.S. the first country in the world to do so; and removing Sudan from the list of designated terrorist states and loaning it $1.5 billion. The Accords were focused on each state’s own strategic interests, particularly in building a regional alliance less reliant on Washington.
For Israel, the Accords have dramatically expanded not only Israeli trade and diplomatic relations with the signatory Arab states—most significantly the wealthy petro-dollar states the UAE and Bahrain—but also military and intelligence coordination. In 2021, the U.S. moved Israel from its European Command to its U.S. Central Command covering the Middle East, facilitating and "deepening" more direct military and operational cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbors that includes intelligence sharing and a regional air defense network called the Middle East Air Defense Alliance. Israeli F-35 squadrons and American F-35s flying from Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE have conducted several joint aerial drills, dubbed Enduring Lightning. In 2021, the UAE, Bahrain, Israel, and the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command conducted maritime security operations exercises in the Red Sea, while Israeli weapons manufacturers have also significantly expanded their business with Arab states. In 2022, Israel exported a record $12.6 billion in defense products to the UAE and Bahrain alone.
All this needs to end. The Israel-Hamas truce late last month brought a much-needed reprieve to Gaza’s 2 million people who have been subject to intense bombardment and mass displacement. The temporary ceasefire came to a halt on Friday with the return of deadly Israeli airstrikes. But if Israel is faced with the prospect of losing its regional security architecture, perhaps it will listen to growing calls on what is needed most—a permanent ceasefire.
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Oct 19 (Reuters) - IBM Corp (IBM.N) beat quarterly revenue estimates on Wednesday and said it expects to exceed full-year revenue growth targets as robust demand for its digital services helps cushion the blow from a strong dollar.The IT software and services provider has been focusing on the so-called "hybrid cloud" after spinning off its legacy IT-managed infrastructure business and posted double-digit growth across all its segments and geographies on a constant-currency basis for the third quarter.The company's shares rose 6% in trading after the bell.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comIBM, whose cloud revenue rose 11% to $5.2 billion in the quarter, now expects its annual revenue to increase more than its previous estimate of mid-single-digit growth at constant currency.While enterprise spending is robust in the Americas, IBM is seeing some softness in its key areas such as new bookings and backlog churn in Western Europe due to the macroeconomic environment there, Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters.Industry experts largely view digital transformation projects serviced by the likes of IBM to be resilient in an economic slowdown as more businesses turn to technology to reduce costs.Still, this year's near 17% surge in the dollar that also have sprawling international operations.IBM, which makes 60% of its revenue from outside the United States, increased its full-year estimate for foreign exchange impact to 7% from 6%.The company booked a forex hit of $1.1 billion in the third quarter.Revenue came in at $14.12 billion, compared with $13.51 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv data.IBM swung to a net loss of $3.20 billion, or $3.54 per share, in the third quarter, compared with a profit of $1.13 billion, or $1.25 per share, a year earlier, due to a one-time, non-cash pension settlement charge of about $5.9 billion.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Chavi Mehta in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Banking & Finance |
U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comHONG KONG, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The euro and Japanese yen were sitting pretty on Thursday morning after U.S. inflation data overnight came in less hot than feared and sent the dollar tumbling.U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July compared with June, when prices rose a monthly 1.3%. The July result was lower than expectations due to a sharp drop in the cost of petrol, causing markets to reposition on hopes that inflation was peaking. read more If price rises have reached their zenith, investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will not have to maintain its eye-wateringly steep pace of interest rate hikes, which had been supporting the dollar.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe euro was at $1.0297 on Thursday morning, after jumping 0.84% the day before, its biggest daily percentage gain since mid-June.The yen was at 132.83 per dollar, after the greenback had fallen 1.6% overnight on the Japanese currency, which is particularly sensitive to moves in U.S. yields.U.S. shares and short dated treasuries also rallied on the news, which pushed the Nasdaq more than 20% above its June low and the two-year treasury yield down to 3.2141%, seven basis points lower than its previous close.U.S. Treasuries were not trading in early Asia as due to a holiday in Japan.Analysts at Standard Chartered said the decline in the dollar seemed to be driven by improvements in investors' attitude to riskier assets - other than the move against the yen, which they said was more of a yield play."The surprise downward (inflation) move takes out much of the fear that the market had of a 75bps Fed hike or even inter-meeting moves," they wrote in a note."We suspect that many investors did not want to put on positions ahead of an important number that could have gone either way, so some of the post-CPI moves probably reflect delayed buying of risk-correlated positions."Markets are currently pricing in a 57.5% chance of a 50 basis point interest rate rise at the Fed's next meeting, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool, though another 75 basis point increase remains possible.Fed policy makers were also warning in public remarks after the data that they would continue to tighten monetary policy until price pressures were fully broken. read more The Australian dollar , another commonly used proxy for risk sentiment, was at $0.7077 after a 1.7% overnight gain, and sterling was on the front foot at $1.2207.Bitcoin , which has also traded in line with risk assets, was testing its recent highs at $24,000.========================================================Currency bid prices at 0109 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Alun JohnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
Mahindra CIE Q4 Review - India Business Inline; Europe Business Showing Signs Of Recovery: Motilal Oswal
The India business outperformed the European business, driven by strong domestic demand.
BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.
Motilal Oswal Report
Q4 CY22 was the first quarter without Mahindra Forgings Europe the Germany based arm and Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd.’s overall performance in the quarter was in line with our estimates.
The India business outperformed the European business, driven by strong domestic demand, while Europe demand showed signs of improvement, on the back of cost pass through and easing chip shortages.
Given the moderation in commodity costs and partial pass-through of energy costs, we expect margins in both geographies to improve from here on.
We increased our CY23/CY24 estimate by 4%/1% to reflect improvement in the Europe business.
Mahindra CIE's consolidated revenue/Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax grew 35%/62%/96% YoY to Rs 22.5 billion/Rs 2.9 billion/Rs 1.7 billion, respectively, in Q4 CY22. Revenue/Ebitda/ adjusted profit after tax rose 29%/24.5%/69% YoY, respectively, in CY22.
Ebitda stood at ~Rs 2.9 billion, wherein Ebitda margin came in at 13% (up 270 bps YoY/60 bps QoQ). Adjusted profit after tax stood at Rs 1.7 billion.
Click on the attachment to read the full report:
DISCLAIMER
This report is authored by an external party. BQ Prime does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of BQ Prime.
Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner. | India Business & Economics |
A picture illustration shows Russian rouble banknotes of various denominations on a table in Warsaw, Poland, January 22, 2016. REUTERS/Kacper PempelRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryRussia slips into sovereign default zone after deadline passesG7 unveils latest sanctions package against MoscowRouble loses 2% vs dollar in early trade, pares losses to gainRussia's OFZ treasury bond yields at lowest since early 2022This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in UkraineMOSCOW, June 27 (Reuters) - The rouble pared early losses in volatile Moscow trade on Monday as Russia looked set for its first sovereign default in more than a century after a payment deadline expired and the West promised more actions against Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.A 30-day grace period for bondholders to receive $100 million interest payments due on May 27 expired on Sunday. The Kremlin rejected the default on Monday, while the Russian finance ministry blamed Western clearing houses. read more Russia has long said it has the money to pay, calling the default artificial as sanctions block foreign bondholders from receiving the cash. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comBy 1107 GMT, the rouble was 0.3% stronger against the dollar at 53.23 , paring losses, having earlier shed as much as 2% to touch its weakest since June 21 at 54.4975.The rouble will be likely to stay in the 50-55 range versus the dollar in the coming weeks and may test the lower boundary of that range, Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko Invest said in a note.The rouble had gained 0.2% to trade at 55.96 versus the euro , also paring early losses that had seen it drop to 57.3375.The rouble, which has become by far the world's best-performing currency this year, has been driven by Russia's high proceeds from commodity exports, a drop in imports and a ban on households withdrawing foreign currency savings.The strong rouble squeezes the incomes of export-focused companies and could weigh on the economy as it tips into recession following harsh sanctions over what Moscow calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine.The Group of Seven rich democracies will commit on Tuesday to a new package of coordinated actions meant to raise pressure on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, a senior U.S. official said on Monday, which analysts said could put downward pressure on the currency. read more TAX PAYMENTSCapital controls have buttressed the rouble for months, pushing it to seven-year highs on June 22.This week's peak of a month-end tax period that sees exporting companies convert dollar and euro revenue into roubles may add short-term support.There was no increase in currency sales by exporters last week, said Alor Broker in a note, meaning they could have left the process of forex conversion until the last minute, which would see the rouble strengthen.However, Alor said exporters may have already stockpiled the necessary rouble amounts.On the bond market, yields on 10-year benchmark OFZ bonds , which move inversely with their prices, fell to 8.63%, their lowest since early 2022.Russian stock indexes were firmer.The dollar-denominated RTS index (.IRTS) was up 0.7% to 1,424.4 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 0.6% higher at 2,406.7 points.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Reuters; editing by Barbara Lewis and Jane MerrimanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Bonds Trading & Speculation |
- Venture firm Sequoia Capital is dividing its global business into three independent entities for the U.S. and Europe, China, and Southeast Asia and India.
- The firm informed its investors via a joint message from the three regions' managing partners.
- Sequoia is one of the world's top venture funds, with past investments in Apple, Google, Paypal and Zoom.
Sequoia Capital, one of the world's largest venture firms, told investors Tuesday morning it would divide its global partnership into three separate and independent geographic units, for China, the U.S. and Europe, and Southeast Asia and India, citing an "increasingly complex" dynamic.
Sequoia partners Roelof Botha, Neil Shen, and Shailendra Singh delivered the update to their limited partners via a joint message. Botha is managing partner for Sequoia's U.S. and Europe business, while Shen and Singh run Sequoia's China and Southeast Asia businesses, respectively.
related investing news
"To deliver on our mission, we have decided to fully embrace our local-first approach," the three partners told their investors.
The move will be completed no later than March 31, 2024, the partners said.
The U.S. firm will retain the Sequoia branding. Shen's Chinese fund, which has been increasingly seen as an independent entity even before the move, will take the name HongShan in English. Singh's Indian unit will be named Peak XV Partners.
"It has become increasingly complex to run a decentralized investment business," the executives wrote in their message to investors. "We've seen growing market confusion due to the shared Sequoia brand as well as portfolio conflicts across entities."
Sequoia is one of the world's top venture funds, with notable investments in Apple, Google, Paypal, and Zoom.
A Sequoia representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates. | Asia Business & Economics |
Godrej Consumer's Price Target Hiked By Jefferies Due To Improving Business
The brokerage maintained a 'buy' rating on the stock and upgraded the price target to Rs 1,200 from Rs 1,090.
A likely turnaround in Godrej Consumer Products Ltd.'s business in the coming quarters, following earnings-per-share cuts in 2022, led Jefferies to raise its price target on the stock.
The brokerage maintained a 'buy' rating on the stock and upgraded the price target to Rs 1,200 from Rs 1,090, implying a potential upside of 26%.
Jefferies also expects overall gross margins to expand in FY24, led by a decline in key input prices.
The brokerage pointed out that initiatives on access packs are yielding results, especially in the hair colours segment. The household insecticides segment is also directionally better, it said.
"Category development efforts are seeing good response, and high-single digit volume growth in India is likely," Jefferies said in its March 26 note.
Shares of Godrej Consumer were up 0.15% at Rs 952.6 as of 12:27 p.m., compared to 0.60% gains in benchmark Nifty 50.
Out of the 38 analysts covering the company, 31 maintain 'buy', seven suggest 'hold', and only one recommends 'sell', according to Bloomberg.
The return potential of the stock implies an upside of 7.8% over the next 12 months.
India Portfolio
Godrej Consumer is conducting structural interventions to boost its mosquito repellent product- Good Knight LV, through sharper positioning, increased door-to-door sampling, price correction in its product Fast Card and recent launch of access packs in liquid vaporisers and aerosols, Jefferies said.
The Rs 15 mini crème pack in hair colours is seeing strong traction, while the air care segment is also seeing strong growth. Hair colours, air care and liquid detergents should be key drivers, with the management targeting more than 20% volume growth, it said.
While this is underway, the segment is picking up and with more interventions planned for fiscal 2024, growth should be driven to at least mid-single digits, according to the brokerage.
With inflation waning, the gross margins as well as the volume growth of soaps should improve, Jefferies said. "This, along with mid-single digit growth in HI and soaps, should enable high-single digit (to low double-digit) volume growth in India going forward."
Godrej Africa Business
The Godrej Group company is revisiting its operating model in few countries in Africa with a target to cut costs and partly invest those savings on brand-building and distribution for the FMCG portfolio.
The focus in Africa is on growing the consumer goods segment, which holds a 25% salience, Jefferies said.
This segment, which although needs investments on brand-building and distribution, also offers 10-15 points better gross margins as compared to hair extensions.
The company aims to simplify operations, reduce cost-to-serve and rationalize manufacturing footprint in its hair extension business in Africa, Jefferies said.
These initiatives "should yield a step-jump in margins in fiscal 2024 and a modest expansion in the medium term", the brokerage said. | India Business & Economics |
U.S. dollar banknotes are displayed in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryEuro just off latest two-decade lowSterling holds gains after Johnson says he is resigningData should indicate Fed's next move on inflationGraphic: World FX ratesNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - The dollar traded little changed against the euro and other trading currencies on Thursday, though sterling held on to gains after Boris Johnson said he was quitting as British prime minister.Investors are waiting for U.S. jobs data on Friday and consumer price data next week that should signal the pace of inflation and whether the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively hike interest rates when policymakers meet on July 26-27."What's being priced into the July Fed meeting is predicated on that inflation print coming in reasonably elevated. We suspect that it will," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe strength of non-farm payrolls on Friday should also point to how fast wages are increasing, while the U.S. central bank doesn't appear to be as encumbered as other major central banks, he said."To us that suggests the U.S. dollar is still going to be the currency that outperforms," Rai said.The dollar index , which measures the currency against six counterparts, fell 0.047% after Wednesday's peak of 107.27, a level not seen since late 2002. The euro was down 0.07% to $1.0176 after sliding to a two-decade low of 1.01615 on Wednesday.Investors are grappling with the risks of a recession and whether interest rate hikes will be paused as global demand is under pressure.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates seasonally adjusted GDP growth on an annual basis in the second quarter was -2.1%.Implied volatility remains near its highest levels since late March 2020 at 11.2% , reflecting a nervous market as investors contemplate parity between the euro and dollar."Parity is within reach, and one can expect the market to want to see it now," said Moritz Paysen, currency and rates advisor at Berenberg.According to George Saravelos, global head of forex research at Deutsche Bank, "if Europe and the U.S. slip-slide into a recession in Q3 while the Fed is still hiking rates, these levels (0.95-0.97 in EUR/USD) could well be reached."Commodity-linked currencies strengthened as copper prices climbed. Some investors returned to the market on Thursday after heightened recession fears sent the red metal to its lowest level in nearly 20 months.The Australian dollar rose 0.7% to 0.6830 against the dollar after recently hitting its lowest level since June 2020 at 0.6762.The Swiss Franc eased from its seven-year high, with the dollar up 0.2% at 0.9727.Sterling rose after Johnson said he would resign. read more It was last up 0.62% at $1.1993.Analysts said the pound was mostly moving on broader economic concerns about a global recession, rather than Britain's political turmoil.Bitcoin last rose 0.86% to $20,723.85.Currency bid prices at 10:17AM (1417 GMT)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Angus MacSwan, Tomasz Janowski and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
By Laura Gozzi & Anne Soyin London & Nairobi15 December 2022Image source, EPAImage caption, President Joe Biden (R) toasted the meeting at a summit dinner alongside Senegal's President Macky SallUS President Joe Biden has announced billions of dollars in support and investment for Africa at a summit with the continent's heads of state."The United States is all in on Africa's future," President Biden told the 49 African leaders attending the Washington DC meeting.It is the first such gathering hosted by Washington for eight years.The summit is seen as a US attempt to re-assert its influence in Africa to counter Chinese involvement.It also comes after Donald Trump's four-year tenure in office, during which he alienated numerous African leaders with policy decisions and insulting comments.Mr Biden struck a very different tone to his predecessor, speaking optimistically of improved links with Africa and telling the gathering that "when Africa succeeds, the United States succeeds. Quite frankly, the whole world succeeds as well." US courts Africa as rivals make advancesHe said that the crises facing the world today needed African leadership, ideas and innovations, and promised to build on the "vital" investments in Africa made by previous US administrations. To that end, ahead of the three-day summit which ends on Thursday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US would commit $55bn (£44bn) to Africa over the next three years.Discussions at the summit have focussed on building on already existing programmes, including:Prosper Africa - a US government initiative "to increase two-way trade" between African nations and the US launched in 2018the Clinton-era Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, Agoa, which provides African apparel manufacturers preferential access to the US market;the Power Africa initiative launched by President Obama to connect millions of African to the grid among others. But the success of such programmes has been slow to realise. Africa only accounts for just over 1% of US foreign trade, which is dominated by petroleum imports from Nigeria and Angola. In his address on Wednesday, the US president spoke about a $500m-investment to reduce transport costs at a key West African port in Benin.He also mentioned $350m that would be spent on boosting the digital economy and said that $15bn-worth of deals had been struck at the US-Africa Business Forum.The US is also set to sign a memorandum with the African Continental Free Trade Area - one of the world's biggest free-trade areas - which Mr Biden said would "unlock new opportunities for trade and investment" between the US and Africa.On the sidelines of the summit on Wednesday, Mr Biden separately met the six leaders of African nations which are holding elections in 2023 to press for free votes. On Thursday, the US president said he would back the African Union's admission as a permanent member of the Group of 20 major economies. Playing catch-upAnalysis by Barbara Plett Usher, BBC State Department correspondentThis was about President Biden trying to win back influence in Africa with personal diplomacy as well as by promising billions of dollars of funding in key sectors and rallying private sector investments. The subtext was that America was trying to catch up with other countries, including Russia and especially China, that have developed stronger ties with the continent. But the message was that the US wanted a strategic relationship with Africa, which has become a key geopolitical player with some of the fastest growing economies in the world. The summit will have been successful for the Americans if they can demonstrate that Africa is more than a battleground for competition with Beijing and Moscow. They want to show that they can be better partners than China or Russia.But following up and sustaining engagement will be crucial to proving US commitment and for that the White House appointed a special envoy. | Africa Business & Economics |
A Euro banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryDollar up on hawkish comments from Powell at ECB forum in SintraJapanese yen climbs to highest level vs euro since 1998Swiss franc touches highest level against the euro since MarchWASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - The euro fell and the dollar rose on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the biggest risk to the U.S. economy is persistent inflation and not that interest rate hikes will slow the economy too much.Speaking at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Powell noted that engineering policy tightening to avoid a U.S. recession is certainly possible but not guaranteed. read more "Powell, to me, sounded quite hawkish. He was talking about wanting to preempt or get ahead of any deanchoring or unwanted rise in inflation expectations," said Erik Nelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"I think that's maybe a bit of a departure from the perception of the market in the past few months that they would react to higher inflation expectations, and it seems if anything that they're going to be proactive rather than reactive."The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six currencies, ticked up 0.593% to 105.070 as investors sought safety in U.S. assets with stocks falling globally on the mounting risk of recession. The dollar index stayed, however, below the two-decade high of 105.79 struck two weeks ago.The Japanese yen climbed to 137.0 against the euro, its highest level since 1998, before paring gains. The Japanese yen weakened 0.29% to 136.55 per dollar.The latest moves indicate "a very strong bias to sell the yen," said Nelson. "It all boils down to the Bank of Japan being the only central bank that's not tightening."The euro was last down 0.74% at $1.044. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade, following its global peers, to cool accelerating inflation. Economists are divided on the magnitude of any hike, giving investors pause.Lagarde said on Wednesday the era of ultra low inflation that preceded the pandemic is unlikely to return, and that central banks need to adjust to significantly higher price growth expectations. read more Elsewhere, the Swiss franc peaked at 1.0034 versus the euro, the highest level against the single currency since 2015. It was last up 0.96% at 1.0024.Cash held overnight by the Swiss National Bank fell last week by its largest amount in more than a decade, in a sign of the end of the central bank's forex purchase campaign to weaken the Swiss franc. read more In crytocurrencies, bitcoin last fell 0.72% to $20,107.70.Ethereum , last fell 4.39% to $1,109.25.========================================================Currency bid prices at 3:28PM (1928 GMT)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Hannah Lang in Washington; additional reporting by Joice Alves; editing by Bradley Perrett, Mark Heinrich David Evans and Richard ChangOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
Australia has offered refuge to citizens of Tuvalu because of the catastrophic impacts of climate change, in a landmark new pact.
Tuvalu - a series of low-lying atolls in the Pacific - is among the nations most at risk from rising seas.
It is home to 11,200 people and has repeatedly called for greater action to combat climate change.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described it as a "ground-breaking" agreement.
Tuvalu Prime Minister Kausea Natano called it "a beacon of hope" and "not just a milestone but a giant leap forward in our joint mission to ensure regional stability, sustainability and prosperity".
Up to 280 people per year will be granted the new visas, which will allow them to live, work and study in Australia.
It is the first time Australia has offered residency to foreign nationals because of the threat of climate change, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported.
"It will be regarded as a significant day in which Australia acknowledged that we are part of the Pacific family, and with that comes the responsibility to act," Mr Albanese told reporters on Friday.
The new treaty - known as the Falepili Union - is the "most significant" agreement between Australia and a Pacific country ever, he added.
It also promises Australian assistance to the nation on climate action and security.
Under the agreement, Australia has committed to defending the Pacific nation from military aggression, and Tuvalu has agreed it will not enter defence pacts with any other countries without Australia's approval.
New Zealand and the US have similar pacts with a handful of other Pacific nations such as Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Cook Islands.
Australia has also pledged funding to help Tuvalu adapt to climate change, including A$16.9m (£8.8m; $10.7) to expand the landmass of its main island by 6%.
Tuvalu has long been grappling with how to protect itself from rising seas.
In September it changed its constitution to say its statehood would remain in perpetuity, even if the impacts of climate change - or anything else - result in the loss of its physical territory.
And in January it vowed to build a digital version of itself in the metaverse to preserve its history and culture. | Australia Business & Economics |
By Manish PandeyNewsbeat reporterImage source, Getty Images"I found myself feeling just so completely and utterly helpless, and realised I had to take action."Claudia Penna Rojas became a part of climate activist group Just Stop Oil in February.You might know them for their protest actions which have included tying themselves to football goalposts, climbing on oil tankers and stopping traffic."I was aware of global warming as an issue, but the urgency of the situation has sunk in," 24-year-old Claudia tells Radio 1 Newsbeat.Many of the impacts of global warming are now simply "irreversible", according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with their scientific reports being described as "a code red for humanity" by the UN Secretary General António Guterres.Image source, ClaudiaImage caption, "The idea of bringing a child into this world, just feel so utterly unfair. And that's no judgement to people who have children," Claudia saysJust Stop Oil describe themselves as a "coalition of groups working together" to demand the government stop the exploration, development and production of fossil fuels - like oil, gas and coal - in the UK.It has divided opinion, with some criticising their disruptive tactics and others praising them for raising attention. Methods such as strikes, boycotts and mass protests - often used by climate protest groups to make their point - have been criticised for being extreme, "selfish" and creating too much disruption to people's lives. Members of the group have broken the law and been arrested for offences such as criminal damage.Some politicians have condemned the group's tactics for causing lives to be "brought to a standstill".Newsbeat has been finding out more from the individuals involved in the group.'It feels like a duty'Claudia moved to the UK aged eight, from Chile, where most of her family still live. She says Chile has faced "mega droughts" for many years, and believes it's a result of climate change."People don't have access to water and I'm terrified that within the next few years, my family could be struggling to survive.""Now's the time where we have to give it absolutely everything. It doesn't really feel like a choice, it feels like a duty."She hoped one day to have a family of her own, but doesn't think that'll happen because of the climate crisis, saying it "feels unfair" to bring a child into "this world".For Zak, he was living "a normal child's life', when he started to see "there was injustice in the world" from the age of 12."I thought what I've been doing for the past two years in the animal rights movement, it's not achieved much change," the 15-year-old says."I was looking to get involved in action, which is going to create change."Image source, ZakImage caption, Zak says he's always tried to "help people" and "wanted to be a paramedic" growing upZak joined the group after being inspired by the Insulate Britain campaign, who were known for gluing themselves to the motorway and stopping traffic.Xanthe Flynn, who uses the pronouns they/them, says they don't like to "call it activism because it's my whole life". "It's not just a protest that you go and do, and then you go back to your safe space," the 18-year-old says."It's also been a massive learning space. Because I didn't get taught really about this in school." 'Bodies on the line'Zak and Xanthe have both been arrested as a result of their actions."I sat on top of an oil tanker for about six, seven hours before I was arrested," Zak says.Zak says being held by police "isn't the nicest thing" but is "incomparable to the consequences of climate change". "Being arrested is not something any of us want to do, it's quite scary," Xanthe adds.Image source, XantheImage caption, Xanthe is interested in learning sign language but their time is taken up with the protest actionsAs for the impact on their futures of having a police record, both are concerned, but "it's not the most important thing" Xanthe says."I'll explain to future employers why I was arrested. And if they don't understand I think it'll be very hard to be in that job.""Would I really want to be employed by someone who judges me for getting arrested for doing something which is quite literally an act of love?," Zak adds.But are there other, less disruptive ways to get their message across?Claudia says they don't "want to cause disruption" and adds their tactics are "not something they choose to do for fun".After years of petitions and words, she adds "we're out of time"."What other options are we left with, apart from to put our bodies on the line," says Zak.Image source, ClaudiaImage caption, Claudia says: "We're doing this because for decades, people have been trying petitioning, writing to their MPs, and none of it has worked"There has been criticism of the group for being "middle-class, privileged" young people, but Claudia says: "If you have the privilege of being able to take that risk, then you have a duty to do so".Zak, though, says he has encountered people from lots of different backgrounds in the group."They take time off work, some of them potentially risk their jobs.""I don't think it's a case of everyone being a trust fund kid whose lifestyles are funded by parents. "I think it's a case of people caring about the future generations." Image source, Just Stop Oil/ PA MediaImage caption, Protesters from Just Stop OilXanthe is happy to use their privilege of "being white and born in Oxford"."I can do that because I know that I might not get treated as badly, so the consequences won't be so bad." "We can use our privilege. Because a lot of people can't." Despite feeling worried about the current situation, Claudia, Zak and Xanthe are united in still optimistic things can improve."I think that we need to have hope to continue and hope that something will change," Xanthe adds.Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 weekdays - or listen back here. | Renewable Energy |
Bets against the value of Israeli companies spiked in the days before the October 7th Hamas attacks, suggesting some traders may have had advance knowledge of the looming terror attack and profited off it, according to new research released Monday.
The preliminary research, which hasn’t been peer reviewed, is from law professors at Columbia University and New York University and details a “significant” and “unusual” spike five days before the attacks in short selling in the most popular fund linked to Israeli companies. Short selling is a way to bet against the value of a security.
Those bets against the value of the MSCI Israel Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the days before the October 7 attack “far exceeded” the short selling activity that took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2014 Israel-Gaza war and the 2008 global financial crisis, the paper finds.
“Our findings suggest that traders informed about the coming attacks profited from these tragic events,” the authors wrote.
A ‘shocking’ paper
Jonathan Macey, a professor at Yale Law School, told CNN the paper is “shocking.”
“The evidence that informed traders profited by anticipating the terrorist attack of October 7 is strong,” he said. “Regulators appear to lack the ability to discover the entities responsible for this trading, which is unfortunate.”
At least 1,200 people were killed in Israel on October 7 when more than 1,500 Hamas fighters attacked Israel. Others are still held hostage by Hamas.
The paper, titled “Trading on Terror?”, was written by former SEC commissioner Robert Jackson Jr., who is currently a professor at NYU, and Columbia law professor Joshua Mitts.
The research found that on October 2, just five days before the Hamas attack, “nearly 100% of the off-exchange trading volume in the MSCI Israel ETF … consisted of short selling.”
“Days before the attack, traders appeared to anticipate the events to come,” the professors wrote.
Mitts, one of the paper’s authors, told CNN in a phone interview that due to the limited nature of public trading data, he believes it’s “highly likely” there is more trading that went on behind the scenes. “We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg,” Mitts said. “There is a lot more out there that we can’t pick up on but that regulators should be looking at.”
Mitts added that he and Jackson, his co-author, are “very confident” that the trading activity is “exceptional” and “extraordinary” when compared with over a decade of trading and “not the product of ordinary trading.”
The authors at present don’t know the location of parties making trades and whether the traders were connected to any particular financial firms, government entities or terrorist organizations. And they urge caution before drawing such conclusions.
“Linking it back to Hamas is very speculative and we’re not suggesting this,” Mitts said, adding there are a wide range of possibilities including the potential that someone “overheard something” and acted on it.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission responded that it “does not comment on the existence or nonexistence of a possible investigation.”
The Israeli Securities Authority did not respond to CNN’s request for comment. The Israeli regulator told Reuters: “The matter is known to the authority and is under investigation by all the relevant parties.”
Bill Bagley, a spokesperson for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), told CNN the regulator does not comment on whether or not it is conducting an investigation.
Preliminary findings
The professors stressed that their findings are “preliminary,” and they are unable to link specific traders to these transactions, let alone determine what their underlying sources of information were.
However, the researchers note that US regulators, including at the SEC and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), have access to nonpublic data that could help investigators understand why and how markets acted before October 7.
In the days before the attack, bets against Israeli securities traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange “increased dramatically,” the paper said.
For example, the researchers found that between September 14 and October 5, there were 4.4 million new shares sold short in Bank Leumi, one of Israel’s largest banks. Bank Leumi’s share prices tumbled 23% between October 4 and October 23.
However, there was no corresponding increase found in short selling in Israeli companies traded on US exchanges, though the authors suggest this could be because some Israeli defense companies stood to benefit from higher demand following the attacks and some have large international presence.
The research did find an increase in short-dated options contracts on shares of Israeli firms traded on US exchange. This was linked to several block trades in options, the professors said, “suggesting that a small number of actors may have been behind this options trading.”
The paper found that the “substantial” increase in short selling on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange prior to the October 7 attack was not present before the market drop that occurred following the judicial reform enactment in July 2023 that set off nationwide protests in Israel.
“Taken together, our evidence is consistent with informed traders anticipating and profiting from the Hamas attack,” the authors wrote.
Charles Whitehead, a professor at Cornell Law School, called the study “interesting but preliminary.”
In an email to CNN, Whitehead noted that some of the trading may be “informed –- based on an assessment of the likelihood of a future event, like a terrorist attack –- but some may simply reflect algorithmic or other trading activity that mirrors, and magnifies, changes in price that are taking place without any particular knowledge of the future event.”
Either way, Whitehead argued this is an area that deserves “close scrutiny” as a way to help anticipate future events and “cut off the ability of terrorists and others, with inside information, from profiting on terrorist activity.” | Stocks Trading & Speculation |
People wait in a line outside a newly reopened career center for in-person appointments in Louisville, Kentucky, U.S., April 15, 2021. REUTERS/Amira KaraoudRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comNEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth rose slightly more than expected in August and the unemployment rate ticked higher, giving the Federal Reserve enough cushion to stay on its aggressive rate hike path as it tries to tame inflation.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000, the Labor Department's employment report showed on Friday. July was revised modestly lower to show payrolls rising by 526,000 instead of the previously reported 528,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 300,000 jobs added last month.Employers increased wages at a slower pace last month. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% in August after gaining 0.5% in July. That kept the year-on-year increase unchanged at 5.2%. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: After being roughly flat before the report, S&P e-mini futures rose sharply, last up 0.6%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes initially jumped before pulling back and was last up 0.2 basis points to 3.267%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, was down 4.8 basis points at 3.474%.FOREX: The dollar index weakened and was last down 0.265% at 109.280COMMENTS:BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN"Neutral job gains would be close to 100,000 and we’re still printing numbers in excess of that. But things are cooling from very hot levels. It’s directionally a good report with the increase in the labor force participation rate, but it’s a long distance to the destination the Fed is steering towards. Labor numbers are not very timely and not very reliable, so they’re horrible indicators to use to steer an economy, but that’s the way the Fed wants to drive so we just have to buckle up and ride along."PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK“We added just a bit more jobs than consensus but it was basically inline.”“Hourly wages - that was a good number, better than expected – and the participation rate moved up."“The bottom line is even though job creation is still solid, the fact is unemployment is moving up and the participation rate is moving up. That’s a sign we that we’re going to see weaker reports ahead. Hourly wages have probably peaked.”“The markets are going to like this data. It’s not too hot nor too cold. This report indicates the Fed is going to raise interest rates by half a percentage point this month, the reason being is that wage inflation seems to have peaked.”“The jobs market is heading for a real cool-off period.”“There were no major surprises. The only real surprise was the unemployment rate.”DAVID PAGE, HEAD OF MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH, AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS"The basic message is the labor market might be starting to cool and the Fed might not have to move so aggressively. That's what markets are really worried about, so we are seeing some easing of that.""Some signs of a labor market that's coming back towards something that's sustainable, something that the Fed could live with. All of that suggests to us that the Fed will see some easing in the labor market, which is, of course, what they're trying to achieve in terms of slowing activity, and that probably means they can afford to move by just 50 basis points in September.""We can see the Fed is at the beginning of the end in terms of tightening. Clearly huge developments in the labor market are fundamental here and the market is seemingly reacting to that. The drop in the two year yields, reflects some easing back of the more aggressive thoughts we've seen in recent weeks post Jackson Hole."CHARLIE RIPLEY, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLIANZ INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, MINNEAPOLIS"Today's jobs report is a market happy report. The headline number was slightly above estimates. Wages were largely in line. The big thing in this report was the participation rate going up.""More people participating in the labor market is a good sign. We've seen it pretty depressed since the pandemic.""Overall I don't think it changes the hand for the Fed as it goes into the September meeting, 75 basis points is still on the table.'"The more important report coming up is CPI and that's really going to determine how aggressive they need to be going into the end of the year.""Stock futures are up and the curve is steepening a bit. It's not enough to determine what the Fed's going to do in September. It's not a strong enough report to signal a more aggressive Fed at this point but it's not weak enough for the Fed to let off the gas pedal."(This story was corrected to note jobless rate rose, not fell)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comCompliled by the global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Unemployment |
Economists are looking beyond the Federal Reserve and thinking outside the box of monetary policy for ways to fight inflation. With gas prices soaring, they are focusing largely — though not exclusively — on the energy industry and are increasingly coming up with ideas on how to bring down prices for consumers that cross the traditional liberal-conservative divides. Larry Summers, who served as Treasury secretary under former President Clinton and director of the National Economic Council under former President Obama, over the weekend called on lawmakers and the Biden administration to increase domestic oil production as a means of battling inflation, a stance that puts him in conflict with environmentalists and many Democrats who want to see the U.S. use less oil due to its contribution to global warming. Speaking to NBC, Summers echoed one of the most frequently repeated Republican talking points on Capitol Hill regarding inflation, calling for “an all-in, more energy supply approach that emphasizes freeing up fossil fuels in various ways in the short run.” Summers qualified his recommendation by saying that over the longer run the U.S. economy should be “making, with government support, the ultimate pivot to renewables.” Increasing domestic oil production, along with bringing down pharmaceutical drug prices and getting rid of some of the former President Trump-era tax cuts, would “take pressure off the Fed, would bring down the inflation rate, would operate to restore confidence, and would, I think, be a very positive contribution,” he added. His comments came as inflation that’s at a 40-year high is spooking average consumers and markets alike. The Federal Reserve last week raised interest rates by 0.75 percent, the largest single increase in its history. The central bank is trying to walk a tricky tightrope of bringing down inflation without triggering a recession. Summers on Sunday said his “best guess” was that one would happen. Keeping consumer prices stable is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and in the months since inflation began soaring most eyes have been focused on the central bank. But experts are also pointing to fiscal policies known as “supply-side interventions” meant to target issues in supply chains, which nearly all economists believe to be the root cause of the inflation in the wake of the pandemic. Just as Summers, a Democrat, hopped on the conservative bandwagon of opening up domestic fossil fuel production to alleviate transportation costs and prices at the pump, some conservative economists have been advancing inflation-fighting arguments traditionally associated with liberals. The idea of a carbon tax, long seen on Capitol Hill as a non-starter among conservatives, received an endorsement last week from the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning Washington think tank focusing on domestic economic policy issues. Economists there argued that as increasing interest rates make the national debt more expensive for taxpayers to pay off, a carbon tax would be a good way to take some demand out of the economy and extend the purchasing power of the dollar. “As inflation, driven in large part by profligate deficit-financed spending, becomes a larger issue, and as concern about the national debt reenters the conversation, a carbon tax would be a convenient way to address both issues while working towards the policy objective of lowering carbon emissions,” Tax Foundation economists Huaqun Li and Alex Muresianu wrote in a report released this month, titled “Carbon Taxes and the Future of Tax Reform.” “Carbon taxes are an option to make the market reflect future costs of carbon emissions, discouraging emissions and incentivizing development and implementation of clean technology,” the report said. Carbon taxes, however, are not part of any legislative package that could realistically be enacted in a short enough time frame to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon fuels and make a difference on inflation, which stands now at 8.6 percent and may still be rising. President Biden, who released oil to the market from U.S. petroleum reserves in April, has argued that losing sight of the longer-term move to renewable energy in favor of producing more oil in the shorter term is neither good national strategy nor in the interest of the energy sector. Speaking earlier this month at the Port of Los Angeles — a site of many of the supply chain disruptions driving inflation — Biden said that big energy companies have thousands of unused oil drilling permits that they simply don’t want to use. “They have 9,000 permits to drill. They’re not drilling. Why aren’t they drilling? Because they make more money not producing more oil. The price goes up,” he said. But this hesitancy to drill may be motivated by more than just quarterly profits and may be a part of the same industry-changing forces that are driving the move toward renewable energy sources. “There was a time when everybody invested in canals in the United States, because that was going to be the future. But that lasted maybe 20 years, and then these things called railroads came along,” Edward M. Emmett, an energy and transportation fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said in an interview. “And so I’m one of those that thinks that all this effort toward electric is going to meet the same fate, because we’re going to end up with a hydrogen fuel or biofuels or something else.” “On the energy front, everybody seems to have bought into the idea that it’s not going to be wise to invest a whole lot into carbon fuels, which is why we’re seeing the fight between the White House and others: ‘You’ve got these leases — why aren’t you drilling them?’ Well, one of the reasons is they don’t know if there’s going to be a market for those,” Emmett said. This suggests that the move to renewable energy sources, as well as the determination of the dominant renewable energy sources, could be an even higher priority for lawmakers as they consider additional supply-side interventions to bring down inflation. Regardless of industry specifics, the international pressure to curb emissions has never been higher. “Limiting global warming will require major transitions in the energy sector,” the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in an April statement released with their latest report on climate change. “This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).” And Biden on Monday also repeated some of his calls for inflation-fighting interventions outside the Fed’s purview. Responding to Summers’s comments on Monday, Biden said Congress should pass tax reforms and pointed to efforts to cut health care costs. “I think we’re going to be able to get a change in Medicare and a reduction in the cost of insulin,” Biden said. “We also can move in a direction that we can provide for tax increases … on those in the corporate area as well as individuals as it relates to Trump’s tax cuts.” | Inflation |
Russian one ruble coin and Russian flag displayed on a screen are seen in this multiple exposure illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on March 8, 2022.Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesRussia's ruble hit 52.3 to the dollar on Wednesday, its strongest level since May 2015. On Thursday afternoon in Moscow, the currency was trading at 54.2 to the greenback, slightly weaker but still near seven-year highs.That's a world away from its plunge to 139 to the dollar in early March, when the U.S. and European Union started rolling out unprecedented sanctions on Moscow in response to its invasion of Ukraine. The ruble's stunning surge in the following months is being cited by the Kremlin as "proof" that Western sanctions aren't working."The idea was clear: crush the Russian economy violently," Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week during the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. "They did not succeed. Obviously, that didn't happen."In late February, following the ruble's initial tumble and four days after the invasion of Ukraine began on Feb 24, Russia more than doubled the country's key interest rate to a whopping 20% from a prior 9.5%. Since then, the currency's value has improved to the point that it's lowered the interest rate three times to reach 11% in late May.The ruble has actually gotten so strong that Russia's central bank is actively taking measures to try to weaken it, fearing that this will make the country's exports less competitive. But what's really behind the currency's rise, and can it be sustained? Russia is raking in record oil and gas revenue The reasons are, to put it simply: strikingly high energy prices, capital controls and sanctions themselves. Russia is the world's largest exporter of gas and the second-largest exporter of oil. Its primary customer? The European Union, which has been buying billions of dollars worth of Russian energy per week while simultaneously trying to punish it with sanctions. That's put the EU in an awkward spot – it has now sent exponentially more money to Russia in oil, gas and coal purchases than it has sent Ukraine in aid, which has helped fill the Kremlin's war chest. And with Brent crude prices 60% higher than they were this time last year, even though many Western countries have curbed their Russian oil buying, Moscow is still making a record profit. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu attend a wreath-laying ceremony, which marks the anniversary of the beginning of the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany in 1941, at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in Moscow, Russia June 22, 2022. Mikhail Metzel | Sputnik | ReutersIn the Russia-Ukraine war's first 100 days, the Russian Federation raked in $98 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research organization based in Finland. More than half of those earnings came from the EU, at about $60 billion.And while many EU countries are intent on cutting their reliance on Russian energy imports, this process could take years – in 2020, the bloc relied on Russia for 41% of its gas imports and 36% of its oil imports, according to Eurostat.Yes, the EU passed a landmark sanctions package in May partially banning imports of Russian oil by the end of this year, but it had significant exemptions for oil delivered by pipeline, since landlocked countries like Hungary and Slovenia couldn't access alternative oil sources that are shipped by sea. "That exchange rate you see for the ruble is there because Russia is earning record current account surpluses in foreign exchange," Max Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC. That revenue is mostly in dollars and euros via a complex ruble-swap mechanism. "Although Russia may be selling slightly less to the West right now, as the West moves to cutting off [reliance on Russia], they are still selling a ton at all-time high oil and gas prices. So this is bringing in a big current account surplus." Russia's current account surplus from January to May of this year was just over $110 billion, according to Russia's central bank – more than 3.5 times the amount of that period last year. Strict capital controlsCapital controls – or the government's limiting of foreign currency leaving its country – have played a big role here, plus the simple fact that Russia can't import as much any more thanks to sanctions, meaning it's spending less of its money buying stuff from elsewhere. It's really a Potemkin rate, because sending money from Russia abroad given the sanctions — both on Russian individuals and Russian banks — is incredibly difficult.Max HessFellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute"Authorities implemented pretty strict capital controls as soon as sanctions came on," said Nick Stadtmiller, director of emerging markets strategy at Medley Global Advisors in New York. "The result is money is flowing in from exports while there are relatively few capital outflows. The net effect of all this is a stronger ruble."Russia has now relaxed some of its capital controls and lowered its interest rate in an effort to weaken the ruble, since a stronger currency actually hurts its fiscal account. The ruble: Really a 'Potemkin rate'?Because Russia is now cut off from the SWIFT international banking system and blocked from trading internationally in dollars and euros, it's been left to essentially trade with itself, Hess said. That means that while Russia's built up a formidable volume of foreign reserves that bolster its currency at home, it can't use those reserves to serve its import needs, thanks to sanctions.The ruble's exchange rate "is really a Potemkin rate, because sending money from Russia abroad given the sanctions — both on Russian individuals and Russian banks — is incredibly difficult, not to mention Russia's own capital controls," Hess said. In politics and economics, Potemkin refers to fake villages that were purportedly constructed to provide an illusion of prosperity to Russian Empress Catherine the Great."So yes, the ruble on paper is quite a bit stronger, but that's the result of crashing imports, and what's the point of building up forex reserves, but to go and buy things from abroad that you need for your economy? And Russia can't do that."People line up near Euro and U.S. dollars rates to ruble sign board at the entrance to the exchange office on May 25, 2022 in Moscow, Russia. Russia moved closer to a default on Wednesday after the U.S. Treasury let a key sanctions exemption expire.Konstantin Zavrazhin | Getty Images"We should really be looking at the underlying issues in the Russian economy, including the cratering imports," Hess added. "Even if the ruble says it has a high value, that is going to have a devastating impact on the economy and on quality of life." Does this reflect the actual Russian economy?Does the ruble's strength mean that Russia's economic fundamentals are sound and have escaped the blow of sanctions? Not so fast, analysts say. "Ruble strength is linked to a surplus in the overall balance of payments, which is much more driven by exogenous factors linked to sanctions, commodity prices and policy measures than by longer term underlying macroeconomic trends and fundamentals," said Themos Fiotakis, head of FX research at Barclays.Russia's Ministry of Economy said in mid-May that it expects unemployment to hit nearly 7% this year, and that a return to 2021 levels is unlikely until 2025 at the earliest.Since Russia's war in Ukraine began, thousands of international companies have exited Russia, leaving huge numbers of unemployed Russians in their wake. Foreign investment has taken a massive hit, and poverty nearly doubled in just the first five weeks of the war alone, according to Russia's federal statistics agency, Rosstat."The Russian ruble is no longer an indicator for the health of the economy," Hess said. "While the ruble has surged thanks to the Kremlin's interference, its inattention to Russian's well-being continues. Even Russia's own statistics agency, famous for massaging numbers to meet the Kremlin's goals, acknowledged that the number of Russians living in poverty rose from 12 [million] to 21 million people in Q1 2022."As for whether the ruble's strength can be sustained, Fiotakis said, "It is very uncertain and depends on how the geopolitics evolve and policy adjusts." | Forex Trading & Speculation |
On Thursday, the Indian currency had closed 8 paise lower at 82.88 Representational image. Shutterstock | Mumbai | Published 04.11.22, 05:13 PM The rupee appreciated by 47 paise to close at 82.41 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday, as the greenback retreated from its elevated levels.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.85 and finally settled at 82.41 against the American currency, registering a rise of 47 paise over its previous close amid a positive trend in domestic equities. On Thursday, the rupee had closed 8 paise lower at 82.88.Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.34 per cent to 112.54.Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 2.05 per cent to USD 96.61 per barrel."Euro and Pound too recovered on Friday from intraday lows as broader dollar retraced against its major crosses," said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.On Thursday, pound fell sharply against the US dollar after the Bank of England raised rates by 75 bps."We expect the USD-INR (Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 82.50 and 83.30," Somaiya added.On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 113.95 points or 0.19 per cent to end at 60,950.36, while the broader NSE Nifty gained 64.45 points or 0.36 per cent to 18,117.15.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday as they purchased shares worth Rs 677.62 crore, according to exchange data. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
Wind turbines near Blairsburg, Iowa.Jack Kurtz/ZUMA Wire This story was originally published by WIRED and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
You can’t see them or hear them, but there are huge, hidden forces propelling the United States into the energy future. Last year, the Biden administration committed to eliminating half the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a critical step in fighting climate change. Half sounds like a lot—and it is—but scientists think it’s doable.
Different teams have modeled how exactly this decarbonization might play out—by rolling out more solar and wind energy, for example, and more electric vehicles—and landed on several paths to cutting emissions in half in the next eight years.
A new paper in the journal Science took six of these scenarios and found that they share several major points: the keys to a clean-energy future. “Reducing our emissions by 50 percent is technically feasible, it’s economically viable, and there are massive additional benefits,” says Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory energy economist Nikit Abhyankar, a coauthor of the paper. “So this is what we call a no-regrets strategy.”
The first area where those scenarios agree is that we’ll have to target the power and transportation sectors. To halve emissions, Abhyankar says, by 2030 the US grid will need to be running on about 80 percent carbon-free electricity (including hydropower and nuclear power), up from 40 percent today. The good news is that we’re already heading in that direction. In recent years, the US has been making significant progress in its effort to ditch coal for natural gas power plants. Yes, that gas is still a fossil fuel that spews carbon, but not nearly as much as coal.
Meanwhile, the costs of solar and wind energy are cratering. The price of solar technology has dropped 99 percent in the past four decades. And it’s getting less expensive for homeowners and utilities to store renewable energy: Between 1995 and 2018, the production of lithium-ion batteries jumped 30 percent per year while getting 12 percent cheaper each year. Earlier this month, the California utility PG&E commissioned a battery storage system that can provide power to over 200,000 homes for four hours. For homeowners, Tesla’s (very expensive) Powerwall battery can both charge a car and power a home during an outage, providing some independence from the grid. The bigger challenge is the grid itself. The switch to renewables is happening on ancient infrastructure designed for on-demand energy generation—if you need more electricity, you burn more fossil fuels. The US grid is also actually three distinct grids with little interconnection: eastern and western grids, and one just for Texas. That means if demand spikes in one region and the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing there, operators can’t import large amounts of power from elsewhere. This is the intermittency challenge of renewables: They’re critical to fighting climate change, but the grid just isn’t designed for them.
But, Abhyankar says, wind and solar power has gotten so cheap, and energy extraction so much more efficient, that this may not be a big problem in the short term. Extremely efficient panels and turbines can still generate enough electricity to make economic sense, even for regions that don’t have the number of sunny days Phoenix has, or the wind the Midwest has. That opens up the option of generating green energy locally, instead of having to import it across state lines. “Contrary to the conventional way of planning the grid—where you’ll choose the best of the best resource, site the renewable capacity there, and carry that electricity long distances—that trend has started changing because of the falling costs,” says Abhyankar. “And that might play a major role up to 2030 or so.”
That said, he adds that it’s not a permanent solution. A future grid that runs entirely on renewables needs to be more flexible, since operators won’t be able to burn fossil fuels to fill temporary gaps between energy demand and generation. (At night during a heat wave, for instance, people could be running lots of air conditioners, but there would be no sun to power them.) That means the infrastructure must be rebuilt to make it capable of shuttling renewable power over long distances. “In the long run, though, there’s just no alternative: We have to upgrade the transmission,” he says.
EVs may also prove to be valuable assets for smoothing out power supply and demand by forming a distributed network of car batteries that—along with home solar panels—grid operators could tap into when needed. “If we could leverage the batteries from electrical vehicles or batteries in homes, for instance, or if we could operate the rooftop [photovoltaics] of a set of customers and have them coordinate to provide a certain service to support our transmission network, that would absolutely help in trying to cope with intermittency,” says Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez, who is director of the Renewable Energy and Advanced Mathematics Laboratory at UC San Diego and wasn’t involved in the new paper. “That could alleviate the stress in the grid very dramatically as we have more and more renewables.”
The studies agreed on two more points: the economic and health benefits of decarbonization. Every step of the fossil fuel lifecycle, from extraction to processing to burning, is terrible for the human body. “There are massive non-economic benefits,” Abhyankar says of transitioning to clean energy. “What we found is this transition might also avoid over 200,000 premature deaths, and over $800 billion to a trillion dollars of other health [costs].” As more cars go electric, for example, air quality will improve, reducing the number of people affected by respiratory diseases.
The final point of agreement among the studies Abhyankar and his colleagues reviewed is that it’s not the expense that will hold back the deployment of renewables, batteries, and EVs. “The key point is: Cost is not going to be very high,” says Abhyankar. “In fact, some studies found it might result in significant consumer savings.” For instance, although putting solar panels on a home can be a costly upgrade—especially without a significant tax rebate—in the long run it will save the homeowner money. Instead, the stumbling block is the policies needed to deploy them at a wider scale. Even though Democrats currently control Congress and the White House, they’ve struggled to pass substantial climate legislation. The Build Back Better program would have juiced the manufacturing of renewable tech in the US, among other climate benefits, but West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin torpedoed it. “It comes as absolutely no surprise that we’re nowhere near on track of meeting our target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by roughly half by 2030,” says environmental economist Mark Paul of the New College of Florida. “I think that everybody across the climate and policy community is well aware that we’re going to absolutely blow past those targets, unless we have sizable action in Washington.”
And everywhere, for that matter. For instance, states could mandate that more of their energy generation come from renewables, while the feds could give bigger tax rebates for people to buy EVs and cities could invest in charging stations for them, especially in lower-income neighborhoods.
Another bottleneck, Paul says, is the lack of skilled labor to deploy and maintain solar and wind systems, and energy-saving home technologies like heat pumps. Public investments in trade schools could help boost this workforce. “This actually presents a pretty profound economic opportunity to revitalize the American working class that’s been struggling,” says Paul. “We just need policy to steer the ship in the right direction and ensure that this transition happens as quickly as possible.” | Renewable Energy |
MUMBAI, Nov 9 (Reuters) - A few large Indian companies are returning to exotic currency options to deal with the rupee's volatility as they look to manage hedging costs and foreign exchange risks.These options provide companies increased flexibility to manage their currency risks.Companies are specifically turning to barrier options, a class of knock-out or knock-in options that are exercisable or expire worthless depending on whether a particular level on the underlying asset is reached.The Reserve Bank of India had in January lifted a ban on the use of these options after companies incurred sizeable losses on them in 2007-2008. The central bank then set a minimum net worth criteria for companies that can access these exotic products.One of India's biggest IT companies is using this tool to manage the cost of options it uses to hedge the dollar payments that are due, an executive, who did not wish to be identified or name the company, told Reuters.The company is adding barriers to the option structure that it normally does to manage the dollar receivables, the executive said, adding that it is using European knock-in option to manage the costs of the range forward options used to hedge.Whether a European knock-in barrier option is exercisable or not will depend on the price of the underlying asset at the expiry date.Range forward is an option strategy that allows exporters to set a predetermined price range at which they will be able to sell dollars on a particular date.By adding a knock-in option, the exporter can manage the strike price and premium paid, depending on the view on the rupee and hedging needs.Indian IT companies earn bulk of their revenue from the U.S. and Europe and are highly vulnerable to the fluctuations in currencies.The use of these barrier options comes in the wake of increased volatility in the rupee. The local currency dropped below 83 to the dollar to a record low last month. The rupee's fall prompted OTC volatility levels, a key input in pricing options, to rise.When used with proper risk assessment, barrier options help to manage the premium cost, a trader with a large private sector bank said."Both importers and exporters can manage the cost by choosing a particular knock-in level, (depending on their rupee outlook),"However, the risk is that if the price of the knock-in option is not reached, the customer will be unhedged at the time of expiry, the trader said.Another banker said that clients who are using options are doing it on a portfolio basis and only a small portion of their hedges via exotic products.According to a BIS survey, out of the total daily forex average volume of $53 billion in April, only $1.1 billion was in options, while outright forwards were almost eight times that.Meanwhile, foreign exchange consultants warned against large-scale use of exotic options."Companies should consider the additional risks that the barrier options bring and whether it suits their overall hedging strategy," said Kunal Kurani, associate vice president at Mecklai Financial."These kinds of options should never be more than a few percentage points of the total hedging book."Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
How Israel Got an Endless Supply of U.S.-Made Smart Bombs
Nearly three years ago, Congress gave Israel a pass to stockpile precision-guided bombs “without regard to annual limits.” An inside source confirms that even more have been transferred since October 7.
Dozens are reportedly killed and injured after two "precision-guided" attacks by Israel on the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza November 1. Photo by Palestinian Ministry of Interior/Anadolu via Getty Images
The United States has had the authority to quietly transfer precision-guided munitions, or PGMs, to Israel for the past three years through a little-noticed provision passed by Congress in January 2021.
Section 1275 of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) allows a limitless transfer of PGMs from U.S. reserve stocks to Israel’s stockpile without normal congressional notifications, as long as U.S “combat readiness” isn’t compromised.
PGMs — which include any guided missile designed to hit an extremely precise target — have been an Israeli weapon of choice in the massive and deadly bombardment that has destroyed an estimated 98,000 buildings in Gaza and reportedly killed more than 15,000 Palestinians. Satellite-guided bombs (a type of PGM) of between 1,000 and 2,000 pounds made up about 90% of the weapons the Israeli military used in the first two weeks after October 7.
While PGM’s advanced targeting is billed as a way to avoid civilian harm, they have been linked to many strikes by Israel and other U.S. allies on densely populated areas, including on Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp. A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) admitted to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that they struck the camp knowing the area was crowded with civilians.
President Joe Biden says that the United States has been “surging additional military assistance” to Israel since October 7. But government reporting on the details of that assistance has been sporadic and opaque.
Now, a source in the State Department confirms to In These Times and Women for Weapons Trade Transparency that Section 1275 has been invoked since October 7 to rush more PGMs to Israel.
An endless stockpile
Israel lobbied the United States for greater access to PGMs in the wake of its 2014 assault on Gaza that left some 2,200 Palestinians dead. The Israeli government argued that it needed more smart bombs to use against Hamas and Hezbollah in case of emergency. Section 1275 of the 2021 NDAA was seemingly meant to fulfill that request, enabling the president to bypass normal weapons spending caps on transfers of PGMs already stored in U.S. reserves.
“Although it is almost impossible for independent experts to trace due to a lack of basic transparency, there is little doubt that Israel and the U.S. took advantage of the provision,” says William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “The whole purpose of doing it in this fashion is to hide the extent of these deadly transfers — and the mechanisms used to carry them out — from public view.”
The Jerusalem Post reported in 2021 that the United States quickly replenished the hundreds of PGMs dropped on the Gaza Strip in May 2021 and that Israel planned to purchase “far more” by 2024.
Hartung says that the common-sense logic in Washington D.C. is that U.S. weapons transfers should “increase stability” or “bolster the ability of allies to defend themselves.”
“While this may be true in some cases, in many others — such as U.S. arms supplies to Saudi Arabia for use in the war in Yemen or for Israel’s war on Gaza — pouring in arms to regions of tension enables human rights abuses, entrenches authoritarian regimes and fuels deadly conflict,” he says.
A New York Times investigation found that Israel used JDAMs — a type of PGM — in May 2021 attacks on a Gaza apartment complex that killed civilian families.
Civilian killings, precisely targeted
The Biden administration argues that guided weapons are a valuable tool to reduce civilian casualties by enabling more precise targeting. But U.S. policy decisions have tacitly admitted that sometimes the opposite is true. In 2016, President Barack Obama’s administration suspended PGM sales to Saudi Arabia due to “systemic, endemic” concerns that the advanced weaponry was deployed against civilian targets.
Supplying these attack munitions to Israel, a government with a history of striking civilian infrastructure with PGMs — and which has publicly stated that the emphasis of its bombing of Gaza is “damage and not accuracy” — has been particularly controversial.
When the State Department notified Congress on October 31 that it planned to transfer $320 million in kits to convert unguided bombs into precision munitions, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) introduced a resolution of disapproval in a move applauded by peace and arms control civil society groups, including Women for Weapons Trade Transparency.
There is ample evidence that PGMs have been used in the current Israeli campaign in strikes against civilian infrastructure. Marc Garlasco, a military advisor at the Dutch peace organization PAX, says that “photos of weapon remnants, craters, and reporting out of Israel and Gaza indicate strikes carried out in Gaza City, including strikes at multiple refugee camps, were conducted with GBU-31’s and other [PGMs].” Analysts believe Israel used a Boeing-manufactured guided bomb unit, a kind of PGM, during its Oct. 31-Nov. 2 airstrikes on Jabalia Refugee Camp, which reportedly killed 195 people.
Less and less transparency
In its request for $14.5 billion in military aid to Israel, the Biden administration is following the precedent set by Section 1275 and other NDAA amendments by further undercutting transparency in all stockpile transfers, not just for PGMs. The President’s requested supplemental bill would waive the annual cap on transfers to the U.S. stockpile within Israel. With no limit on those transfers and Israel’s ability to draw from that stockpile at will, the U.S. would supply Israel with a virtually endless supply of weaponry without congressional authorization or oversight.
The White House’s supplemental request also contained another transparency waiver, first reported by Women for Weapons Trade Transparency and In These Times last month, which would let the White House unilaterally blanket-approve future sales of military equipment and weapons to Israel without notifying Congress.
In response, some Democrats want stronger assurances that U.S. weapons will be used consistently with U.S. law and called for greater transparency in transfers.
Several high-ranking Democrats have already come out against giving Biden increased powers to transfer weapons to Israel without scrutiny. “We should not make exceptions to this practice — it’s our duty to review these funds and ensure their use is in the best interests of the American people and in alignment with U.S. policy,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement to the Washington Post.
Sen. Schumer’s office did not respond by deadline to an inquiry about whether the two transparency waivers will be included in the bill.
In this new book, longtime organizers and movement educators Mariame Kaba and Kelly Hayes examine the political lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath, including the convergence of mass protest and mass formations of mutual aid. Let This Radicalize You answers the urgent question: What fuels and sustains activism and organizing when it feels like our worlds are collapsing?
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Ari Tolany is a research consultant with Women for Weapons Trade Transparency, where her research focuses on the arms trade, civilian harm, and state fragility. Previously, Ari was the U.S. program manager at Center for Civilians in Conflict and a Scoville Peace Fellow at the Stimson Center.
Lillian Mauldin is a Founding Board Member of Women for Weapons Trade Transparency and a Research Fellow at the Center for International Policy. Her work focuses on political strategy and legislative and grassroots advocacy.
Janet Abou-Elias is a Founding Board Member of Women for Weapons Trade Transparency and a Research Fellow at the Center for International Policy. Her research focuses on international arms trade policy, U.S. foreign policy, and sustainability initiatives.
Women for Weapons Trade Transparency is a nonprofit committed to producing high-quality research on the international weapons trade and advocating for humane and sustainable global demilitarization policies. | Middle East Business & Economics |
One of Australia's richest men has sparked a global backlash after saying unemployment should jump to remind arrogant workers of their place.
"We need to see pain in the economy," gym-owner-turned-real-estate-mogul Tim Gurner said.
He has previously suggested young people cannot afford homes because they spend too much on avocado toast.
Video of his comments has gone viral, attracting over 23 million views and strong criticism online.
Speaking during a property summit this week, the 41-year-old said the Covid-19 pandemic had changed employees' attitudes and work ethics for the worse - singling out builders as an example.
He claimed that shift is impacting productivity in the sector, which - combined with tougher regulations - is fuelling Australia's housing shortage.
He proposed the country's current unemployment rate of 3.7% should rise by 40-50% to reduce "arrogance in the employment market". That would see more than 200,000 people lose their jobs.
"There's been a systematic change where employees feel the employer is extremely lucky to have them," Mr Gurner said.
"We need to remind people they work for the employer, not the other way around."
His remarks come at a time when many companies are tussling with staff over issues such as remote work and pay.
Shifting attitudes toward employment are also a matter of widespread discussion on social media, giving rise to hashtags like "quiet quitting", a term meant to capture the decision to stop going above and beyond for bosses; and "lazy-girl jobs", which refers to well paying, flexible positions that offer greater work-life balance.
Mr Gurner's comments, which were shared by the Australian Financial Review (AFR) which hosted the summit, have drawn criticism on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), TikTok and LinkedIn.
They have also been condemned by Australian MPs from across the political divide. Labor MP Jerome Laxale said they were "comments you'd associate with a cartoon supervillain", while Liberal MP Keith Wolahan said they "could not be more out of touch".
"The loss of a job is not a number. It sees people on the streets and dependent upon food banks," Mr Wolahan told the AFR.
US lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also criticised the property mogul.
"Reminder that major CEOs have skyrocketed their own pay so much that the ratio of CEO-to-worker pay is now at some of the highest levels ever recorded," she wrote on X.
But others - like Minerals Council of Australia chairman Andrew Michelmore - have defended him.
"Employees have got used to earning the same amount of money but not putting in the same hours," Mr Michelmore told the AFR.
Gurner is the CEO and founder of Gurner Group and has an estimated worth of A$929 million (£479m; $598m).
He has previously spoken about how loans from his grandfather and former boss helped him get his start as a business owner. | Australia Business & Economics |
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during the Senate Banking Committee hearing titled "The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress", in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022. Tom Williams/Pool via REUTERS/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comWASHINGTON, June 14 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used his first four years as the world's top central banker to reshape U.S. monetary policy around the idea that low inflation and low unemployment could coexist.It was a move intended to spread the gains of economic growth more widely and keep a focus on jobs during the rebound from the pandemic.But the assumptions on which it rested - a relatively frictionless global economy with a well-greased supply chain; a balanced U.S. labor market with just over one open job for each unemployed person - have been shattered by events that appear to have put the Fed's two goals of full employment and moderate inflation back in opposition.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReuters GraphicsUnemployment today at 3.6% is more akin to the 1950s and 1960s, with workers exercising leverage to negotiate higher wages and, given the pandemic, better working conditions. Inflation, however, is soaring at more than 8% annually, leaving Fed officials at a crossroads over how to tame it and facing the possibility that their "narrow path" back to the pre-pandemic world of low unemployment and low inflation may have all but closed.Fed officials are expected to raise interest rates for a third time this year on Wednesday, with a half-percentage point increase seen as the likely outcome along with signals for more as long as inflation keeps far overshooting their 2% target. In new projections, they will also provide their sense of what's at risk, and what price the economy could pay through slowing growth and higher unemployment to get inflation back into line.A HEYDAY FOR JOBSArguably Powell's approach did what was intended in the labor market. The employment rebound has been faster than many expected at the pandemic's outset.Distributionally, it has also helped, consistent with the Fed's view of maximum employment as something "broad and inclusive." Wages have risen fastest for lower-paid occupations; more Blacks and Hispanics are employed than before the pandemic, while white employment in May remained 1.6 million below February 2020's peak.Reuters GraphicsBack in March, Fed officials saw inflation receding with no unemployment rate increase, but "we're going to see some cracks" in that story in the new projections, predicted Nomura senior U.S. economist Robert Dent. The median projected unemployment rate may just rise a couple of tenths of a percentage point in coming years, as Fed officials hang onto their view of an economy that may still revert to pre-pandemic form.But "it is a tightrope...It would not be hard at all to see the economy tip into recession," with joblessness rising to 5% or higher, he said. Some Fed officials have started opening the door to unemployment rates above 4%, the level policymakers roughly consider full employment.That's likely to fall hardest on Black and Hispanic workers, whose unemployment rates typically rise faster in downturns.THE SAVINGS STOCKPILEOne unexpected outcome of the pandemic was a federal government response so strong that household incomes rose despite a recession. Some now argue the spending, in early 2021 in particular, left the economy with much more consumer demand than it can meet, adding to inflation.But it also offset what would have likely been rising poverty, hunger and homelessness. A lot of it, moreover, remains in household bank accounts. Data last week showed that through the end of March cash and checking deposits continued rising, to $4.4 trillion - more than triple the pre-pandemic level. read more Reuters GraphicsThat also provided a buffer: In a recent Fed household survey respondents said they are in the best financial shape ever.But, to some degree, it may have to be spent down to fix inflation - and may make the Fed's job harder as it gives people room to handle $5-a-gallon gas.The relationship between excess savings, its distribution across the economy, and people's willingness to use the cash to cover higher prices is a key issue in the Fed's inflation puzzle.LOW BANKRUPTCY RATESAnother pandemic shoe that never dropped: Bankruptcy rates fell as the Paycheck Protection Program and other initiatives kept firms alive.A recession or significant slowdown may well trigger the washout that never happened. According to data from Epiq, Chapter 11 commercial filings in May increased 34% from a year earlier, though overall commercial filings were down slightly.American Bankruptcy Institute Executive Director Amy Quackenboss in a statement said rising interest rates and higher prices had begun "compounding the economic challenges for financially distressed families and businesses."A RECESSION WITH NO SAFETY NET?As a result of the unprecedented effort to keep businesses and families afloat, the federal debt exploded. While the low-inflation, low-interest-rate environment of the last quarter century or so triggered a broad rethinking about public debt, some of the dynamics that argued for aggressive spending are now moving the other way. When rates on government debt exceed the rate of economic growth, for example, elected officials may not be so willing to roll out an expansive safety net next time.Given how soon that may occur - in a recent Reuters poll 40% of economists said they expect a downturn within two years - the Fed may also be constrained. It can cut rates, which may by then be high enough to provide a substantial economic boost. But it will still be carrying a very large balance sheet, run up to nearly $9 trillion during the pandemic, with policymakers less likely to begin using that second tool to support the economy.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Howard Schneider;
Editing by Dan BurnsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Inflation |
President Joe Biden is set to play host to dozens of African leaders in Washington this week as the White House looks to narrow a gaping trust gap with Africa — one that has grown wider over years of frustration about America’s commitment to the continent.In the lead-up to the three-day U.S-Africa Leaders Summit that begins Tuesday, Biden administration officials played down their increasing concern about the clout of China and Russia in Africa, which is home to more than 1.3 billion people. Instead, administration officials tried to put the focus on their efforts to improve cooperation with African leaders.“This summit is an opportunity to deepen the many partnerships we have on the African continent,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said when asked about the shadow that China and Russia cast on the meetings. “We will focus on our efforts to strengthen these partnerships across a wide range of sectors spanning from businesses to health to peace and security, but our focus will be on Africa next week.”To that end, White House officials said that “major deliverables and initiatives” — diplomatic speak for big announcements — will be peppered throughout the meetings. The White House previewed one major summit announcement on Friday, saying that Biden would use the gathering to declare his support for adding the African Union as a permanent member of the Group of 20 nations.The summit will be the biggest international gathering in Washington since before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Local officials are warning residents to brace for road blocks and intensified security as 49 invited heads of states and leaders — and Biden — whiz around the city.Talks are expected to center on the coronavirus, climate change, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Africa, trade and more, according to White House officials. Biden is set to deliver remarks at a U.S.-Africa business forum, hold small group meetings with leaders, host a leaders’ dinner at the White House and take part in other sessions with leaders during the gathering.Biden has spent much of his first two years in office trying to assuage doubters on the international stage about American leadership after four years of Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy. With this summit — a follow-up to the first such gathering held eight years ago by President Barack Obama — Biden has an opportunity to assuage concerns in Africa about whether the U.S. is serious about tending to the relationship.Biden’s effort to draw African nations closer to the U.S. comes at a complicated moment, as his administration has made plain that it believes that Chinese and Russian activity in Africa is a serious concern to U.S. and African interests.In its sub-Saharan Africa strategy unveiled in August, the Biden administration warned that China, which has pumped billions into African energy, infrastructure and other projects, sees the region as an arena where Beijing can “challenge the rules-based international order, advance its own narrow commercial and geopolitical interests, undermine transparency and openness.”The administration also argues that Russia, the preeminent arms dealer in Africa, views the continent as a permissive environment for Kremlin-connected oligarchs and private military companies to focus on fomenting instability for their own strategic and financial benefit.Still, administration officials are emphasizing that concerns about China and Russia will not be central to the talks.“The United States prioritizes our relationship with Africa for the sake of our mutual interests and our partnership in dealing with global challenges,” Molly Phee, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, told reporters before the summit. “We are very conscious, again, of the Cold War history, we’re conscious, again, of the deleterious impact of colonialism on Africa, and we studiously seek to avoid repeating some of the mistakes of those earlier eras.”The administration has been disappointed that much of the continent has declined to follow the U.S. in condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but Biden is not expected to dwell on differences publicly.The president is expected to participate with leaders in a session on promoting food security and food systems resilience. Africa has been disproportionately impacted by the global rise in food prices that has been caused in part by the drop in shipments from major grain exporter Ukraine.“One of the unique aspects of this summit is the collateral damage that the Russian war has inflicted on Africa in terms of food supply and the diversion of development assistance to Ukraine. The opportunity costs of the invasion have been very high in Africa,” said John Stremlau, a visiting professor of international relations at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.Four countries that were suspended from the African Union — Guinea, Sudan, Mali and Burkina Faso— were not invited to the summit because coups in those nations led to unconstitutional changes in power. The White House also did not invite the East African nation of Eritrea; Washington does not have full diplomatic relations with the country.Biden’s decision to invite several leaders to the summit who have questionable records on human rights and democracy is looming large ahead of the gathering.Equatorial Guinea was invited despite the State Department stating that it held “serious doubts” about last month’s election in the tiny Central African nation. Opposition parties “made credible allegations of significant election-related irregularities, including documented instances of fraud, intimidation, and coercion,” according to the department. Election officials reported that President Teodoro Obiang’s ruling party won nearly 95% of the vote.Zimbabwe, which has faced years of U.S. and Western sanctions over poor governance, human rights abuses and widespread corruption, also was invited.President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who seized power from longtime ruler Robert Mugabe in 2017, has sought to cast himself as a reformer, but local and international human rights campaigners accuse him of repression that is just as bad or even worse than Mugabe’s.Although Mnangagwa enjoys cozy relations with China and Russia, as did Mugabe, he has also sought to make friends with the U.S. and other Western countries in an effort to bolster his legitimacy.In a national address that he delivered in November in a new Chinese-gifted multimillion-dollar parliament building, Mnangagwa held out the invitation to the U.S.-Africa summit as a sign of his administration’s success. He said the southern African country welcomed the invitation, but he also called for the “unconditional” removal of sanctions that he blames for Zimbabwe’s debilitating economic woes.“Emphasis remains on dialogue,” Mnangagwa said.Ethiopia received an invitation even though Biden late last last year announced he was cutting out the country from a U.S. trade program, known as the African Growth and Opportunity Act, over Ethiopia’s failure to end a war in the Tigray region that led to “gross violations” of human rights. A peace deal was signed last month, but implementation faces major challenges such as the continued presence of troops from neighboring Eritrea.Analysts say that African leaders will be looking for Biden to make some major commitments during the summit, including announcing his first presidential visit to sub-Saharan Africa, efforts to bolster the continent’s economy through private sector investment and trade and more.Perhaps most importantly, it could be an opportunity for Biden to demonstrate that Africa is more than a battleground in its economic and military competition with Beijing and Moscow.“I do strongly believe that the United States is still seen as a superpower from the African perspective, but most African leaders do not want to align with its promotion of democracy,” said Abraham Kuol Nyuon, a political analyst and associate professor of political science at the University of Juba in South Sudan. “They need the support of America but not the system of America.” | Africa Business & Economics |
MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India, seeking to arrest the rupee's slide, is asking local banks to not build additional positions in the non-deliverable forward market, a move that could lead to offshore volatility spilling into local markets, bankers and traders said.The build-up of positions in this segment of the market is forcing the RBI to spend more reserves to defend the rupee, one of the bankers said.The RBI's informal communication to local bankers is a step back from the directions it issued in June 2020, when it allowed banks operating from the International Financial Services Centre Banking Units to trade in the NDF segment.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe central bank's move in 2020 came after studies showed that the foreign bank-dominated NDF market, over which the RBI had little influence, fuelled volatility and often led the spot rupee lower in times of stress. Letting Indian banks trade in the segment would give RBI more control.However, increased trading in the segment has created higher demand for dollars at a time when the spot rupee is already under pressure, forcing the RBI to intervene through dollar sales.The RBI had probably assessed that the NDF was "nullifying the impact of their intervention," and was increasing liquidity in the forward market, both of which it does not want. Anindya Banerjee, head of research -forex and interest rates at Kotak Securities, said.Meanwhile, the rupee's swift decline in recent days had led to arbitrage opportunities between the onshore and offshore rates. The arbitrage increases demand for dollars onshore while providing more liquidity offshore.For instance, the USD/INR NDF 1-month rate is currently 7 paisa higher than the corresponding onshore rate and the 3-month forward rate is about 25 paisa higher.About two weeks back, this difference was at near 2 paisa and 8 paisa, respectively.To take advantage of this arbitrage, eligible banks could buy spot dollars onshore and pay 1-month premium while selling USD/INR 1-month in the NDF market."When you arbitrage, you use dollar leverage and that, we think, has become a concern for the RBI," said Abheek Barua, an economist at HDFC Bank."Now that banks are not being allowed, the NDF will start having more of an influence (on the rupee exchange rate)," he said, adding the extent of the influence would depend on the overall RBI intervention.Bankers argue that the RBI's curbs on the activity of banks on NDF will not ease pressure on the rupee. Instead, it would lead to offshore rates once again having more influence on the rupee exchange rate."The problem is that with banks now told to step aside, the difference between NDF and onshore will persist," a trader at a foreign bank said.Bankers told Reuters that the RBI had clamped down on outright activity on the NDF. Trading forward basis points, or the difference between two maturities, is still allowed.The RBI did not reply to an email seeking comment.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSINGAPORE/HONG KONG , Aug 10 (Reuters) - Major currencies held steady on Wednesday, with traders cautious about placing large bets ahead of U.S. inflation data, which markets will scrutinise for guidance on how steeply the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in coming months.The figures are due at 1230 GMT. Economists expect year-on-year headline inflation (USCPNY=ECI) to be running at a scorching 8.7%, a small retreat from June's whopping 9.1% figure. Core inflation is expected at 0.5% month-on-month (USCPF=ECI). read more The greenback was broadly steady, having paused a bit from a retreat that began in the middle of July.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comIt bought 135 Japanese yen and sat at $1.0215 per euro and $1.2089 versus sterling , all little changed on the day and largely unchanged since the start of this week."All eyes are on U.S. CPI," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia."Currencies have been quiet this week, and barring a major news event we don't expect the dollar to move out its range before the data."Traders expect reaction to turn on the core inflation figure."The market will initially get more excited by a downside core CPI surprise than an upside surprise," said Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin. A downward surprise would feed into hopes that falling commodity prices mean inflation can quickly recede."It will also play to the market's recent proclivity to buy risk dips, and will be a broad-based negative for the U.S. dollar," he said."An upside core CPI surprise will fit with the pattern of the last three releases...the purist long dollar trade in this instance is versus the yen," he said, adding dollar/yen could rise into a range of 135 to 139 per dollar.A quick reading on policymakers' reaction may come from Fed officials Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari, who are due to make speeches at 1500 GMT and 1800 GMT, though they will have another set of price data in August before September's policy meeting.The Australian and New Zealand dollars were also calm, with the Aussie last at $0.6967, just above its 50-day moving average. The kiwi traded at $0.6295.Chinese inflation data on Wednesday showed a small increase in annual consumer inflation, to 2.7%, and a slowdown in factory-gate price growth. HSBC analysts said the still muted CPI figure indicated "ongoing pressure in the consumption recovery". read more In offshore trade, the yuan lost a little ground to 6.762 per dollar.Bitcoin , rattled by a drumbeat of cryptocurrency fund wipeouts and thefts over recent months, was at $23,000 on Wednesday.========================================================Currency bid prices at 0758 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Alun John in Hong Kong; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Bradley PerrettOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices increased more than expected in September and underlying inflation pressures continued to build up, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver a fourth 75-basis points interest rate hike next month.The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in August, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI climbing 0.2%.In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 8.2% after rising 8.3% in August. The annual CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, which was the biggest advance since November 1981. read more read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply lower, and were down 2.0%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to a 14-year high and was up 12.4 basis points at 4.026%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, surged to a 15-year high and was up 18.3 basis points at 4.470%.FOREX: The dollar index turned 0.44% higherCOMMENTS:ALAN LANCZ, PRESIDENT, ALAN B. LANCZ & ASSOCIATES, TOLEDO, OHIO"CPI was disappointing. Investors were hoping to get a little control on inflation, and obviously the market's reacting in that capacity."With these CPI numbers we're almost back to that end of the second-quarter mid-summer sentiment that maybe we haven't seen the worst, and that maybe it's not something that could be temporary."MACE M. MCCAIN, PRESIDENT, MANAGING DIRECTOR, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, FROST INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC"CPI came in much higher than expectations, both the headline number and the core, and that's disappointing. We would have hoped to see some moderation in inflation and we're not seeing that at this point. There's just nothing to dissuade the Fed from their path."“Monetary policy works with the lag and so they may be getting ahead of themselves. But certainly with the sentiment we've been hearing from the Fed governors, I don't think that there's anything that's going to dissuade them at this point from continuing their path."IAN LYNGEN, HEAD OF US RATES STRATEGY, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS"Ahead of the data the market was well bid with 10-year yields dropping below 3.85% as headlines surrounding the potential reversal of some aspect of the UK's fiscal plan hit the tapes. The price response in reaction to the data has more than erased that rally and from here we'll be watching for a break of 4% to put a larger downtrade to 4.103% as next support. We're on board with a larger flattening, and while there is sure to be chatter on the potential for a 100 bp hike, this print cements 75 bp in Nov with the more relevant question whether Dec and Feb's hikes will be upsizedKEN POLCARI, MANAGING PARTNER, KACE CAPITAL ADVISORS, BOCA RATON, FLORIDA“Not good, hello – market collapsing. I’m not surprised – why is anyone surprised? It is not responding, it is clear the Fed put us in this position they should’ve been more aggressive months ago but they weren’t and now they are going to be forced out probably in December to probably go another 75 basis points. Because the November CPI and PPI, now that oil is up 22% this month, next month that is going to be reflected in that number so CPI, PPI is going to rear its ugly head even higher next month.”“They are too late to the game and it is not working because inflation is becoming entrenched so I don’t think it is working right now."ARTHUR LAFFER JR., PRESIDENT, LAFFER TENGLER INVESTMENTS, NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE"Those are high numbers. The Fed's definitely raising by 75 bps next month and I would not be surprised if it's 50 bps or 75 bps again in December.""Basically this quarter is the start of a recession even though it may not show up in numbers until the first quarter. All you have to do is look at housing stocks to know it's coming. With a 3.5% unemployment rate, there's no way the Fed is going to stop raising rates until after the end of the year.""Anybody who says (Fed could) pivot is wishful thinking right now. The Fed has got to get a handle on inflation right now. Soft landing is also becoming wishful thinking the more they raise rates. We're going to have a really soft, maybe even negative fourth quarter.""A lot of what central bankers worry about is legacy, for better or for worse. No one wants to be Arthur Burns and everyone wants to be Paul Volker and J. Powell probably has the same feeling that he would much rather suffer through a year or two of pain by slowing the economy and getting inflation under control than not. I think he's going to err on the side of overraising rates and slowing the economy more than he probably would otherwise do because he doesn't want a rerun of 1970s inflation. They are worried about liquidity but look what it's cost the yen because of the BoJ and when the BoE intervened."BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“That inflation report certainly sucked the enthusiasm out of the room. We expected deflation in durables and nondurables, which we got. It’s mostly shelter that is pushing inflation higher and that’s a horribly lagging indicator based on how it’s calculated by the BLS. Perhaps instead of talking about core inflation the Fed will talk about “super core” where it excludes food, energy, and shelter.”ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT"Data came in hotter than expected and that's a bit of a disappointment for the overall market. It's saying that inflation is still not under control. The Federal Reserve will most likely continue with their pace of rate increases. There is no pivot in the near-term future which the market had been hoping for."RYAN DETRICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CARSON GROUP, OMAHA“This is a yet another disappointing sign that inflation continues to stay stubbornly high. Thus opening the door for the Fed to continue its extreme hawkish stance. This follows on the heels of the producer level inflation that we saw just yesterday, that came in hotter than expected, showing the overall inflation backdrop continues to disappoint to the upside.”“The hopes for a pivot are on pause. There are still two more CPI prints before the December meeting with the Fed, but for now, the pivot is on pause. We have to continue to wait to see inflation start to come back down faster, which unfortunately, the data is not showing right now.”“The data is confirming that the overall backdrop of prices is staying higher across the board, which is a disappointment and suggests the Fed will have plenty of runway to remain hawkish. And the market doesn't like that.”“October historically is quite volatile, leading up to that reputation. Now we turn our focus to earnings season - how strong is corporate America and the consumer. Inflation is a clear worry, but now the next worry is what does the economy look like? And what all corporate America has to say about these continued higher prices and how much it's impacting potential consumption. That's why this earnings season will be very important to get those clues.”Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comCompiled by the Finance and Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Inflation |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! Sean Hannity discussed the issues with the Democrats' plan for renewable energy and exposes the ‘lies’ behind their green energy agenda on "Hannity."HANNITY: THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION S IN A FREEFALLSEAN HANNITY: Now, tonight, we'll do a deep dive, we'll expose the truth about these lies, because as it turns out, this push towards what they call renewables and green energy and electric cars is a massive fraud. We'll explain in detail. But in order to really understand this, it is important to first know, where do we get our energy from? Ever ask yourself the question? I know you come home, we flip on the lights. Oh, electricity. That's great. Look at your screen. 79% of America's grid is now powered by it. Guess what? Fossil fuels. What do I say about fossil fuels? The lifeblood of the world's economy that includes petroleum, natural gas and – you bet – coal. Another 8% is derived from nuclear power plants. Liberals hate that, too. Now, currently, only 12% of our energy, by definition, would be from renewables. So if the administration truly wanted to transition away from fossil fuels, they would need to shut down 80 to 90% of our power grid and replace it with what? Windmills? Solar power? Unfortunately, that type of so-called green energy is not very efficient. Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a "Build Back Better" Clean Energy event on July 14, 2020 at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware. (Photo by Olivier DOULIERY / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images) Let's take, for example, one wind turbine. It produces less than three megawatts of energy, whereas one natural gas turbine produces 45. And get this, a typical natural gas plant has three turbines, which means you could need, what, 49 windmills to replace just one moderately sized natural gas plant? Now, keep in mind, there are more than 3400 fossil fuel power plants at operation within the U.S. Any transition to wind and to solar would take decades and decades and decades, and it would not lower the costs at all in the interim and probably thereafter. Now, each windmill costs more than $3.8 million to build. Not to mention the thousands upon thousands of acres of land that would be needed to be purchased. And as Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm declared, we'll require a lot of new resources that you, we, the American people will have to pay for. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPWATCH FULL VIDEO HERE: This article was written by Fox News staff. | Renewable Energy |
RBI Adds 19 Unauthorised Forex Trading Platforms In Alert List
The other entities added to the list are Admiral Market, BlackBull, Easy Markets, Enclave FX, Finowiz Fintech, FX SmartBull, Fx Tray Market, Forex4you, Growing Capital Services, and HF Markets.
The Reserve Bank on Friday updated the 'Alert List' of unauthorised forex trading platforms by adding 19 more entities, including FX SmartBull, Just Markets, and GoDo FX, taking the total to 75.
The Alert List contains the names of entities, which are neither authorised to deal in forex under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 (FEMA) nor to operate electronic trading platform (ETP) for forex transactions under the Electronic Trading Platforms (Reserve Bank) Directions, 2018.
The other entities added to the list are Admiral Market, BlackBull, Easy Markets, Enclave FX, Finowiz Fintech, FX SmartBull, Fx Tray Market, Forex4you, Growing Capital Services, and HF Markets.
Other platforms are HYCM Capital Markets, JGCFX, PU Prime, Real Gold Capital, TNFX, Ya Markets, and Gate Trade.
In a statement, the Reserve Bank said the Alert List also contains names of entities/platforms/websites which appear to be promoting unauthorised entities.
"The list is not exhaustive," it said and added an entity not appearing in the list should not be assumed to be authorised by the RBI. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
[1/3] The logo of Stellantis is seen on a company's building in Velizy-Villacoublay near Paris, France, May 5, 2021. REUTERS/Gonzalo FuentesSummaryCompaniesNet revenue rose 29% in Q3 to 42.1 bln eurosShipments grew 13% in Q3 to 1.281 mln vehiclesBEV sales up 41% year-on-year to 68,000 unitsMILAN, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Revenues at Stellantis (STLA.MI) rose 29% in the third quarter as improved semiconductor supplies helped to boost sales volumes, the owner of car brands including Fiat and Peugeot said in a statement on Thursday.But while the semiconductor crunch was easing, other supply chain issues made an impact, especially around logistics in Europe, for what is now the world's third largest carmaker by sales.They led to an increase in the group's vehicle inventory stock, with Stellantis Chief Financial Officer Richard Palmer saying the industry as a whole was facing a shortage of trucks and drivers."These issues have impacted our ability to convert our strong order portfolio into sales in Europe," Palmer said presenting Stellantis third quarter revenue data to reporters."We expect obviously to resolve those going into the fourth quarter," he added.Milan-listed shares in Stellantis were down 1.8% by 0915 GMT, broadly in line with the European automotive stock index (.SXAP).Martino De Ambroggi, an analyst at Milan-based broker Equita, said despite the increase, Stellantis inventories were still at a lower than normal level, "which leaves room for maintaining positive price-mix at least in the short-term".German premium carmaker BMW (BMWG.DE) reported better than expected quarterly net profit on Thursday thanks to high car prices but warned that rising inflation and interest rates would start to weigh on sales in the coming months.NO RED LIGHT ON ENERGYPalmer said the company was currently seeing "no red light flashing" on possible energy constraints affecting its supply chain and that the level of concern was now lower compared to a few months ago, as "everyone is taking actions"."If the winter is normal, let's say, then I think we're reasonably confident that we can manage production without any significant interruptions," Palmer said.He conceded however that Stellantis "very extensive supply chain" could pose a risk."Small hiccups in suppliers can create big complexities for us in terms of the completion of vehicles," he said.Stellantis net revenues amounted to 42.1 billion euros ($41.3 billion) in the July-September period, topping analyst expectations of 40.9 billion euros, according to a Reuters poll.Strong pricing and favourable forex also supported revenue growth, the company added.Consolidated shipments rose 13% in the quarter to 1.281 million units, Stellantis said, also confirming what analysts call a vague forecast for a double-digit margin on adjusted operating profit and positive industrial free cash flow this year.The group's global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) rose 41% year-on-year to 68,000 units.
($1 = 1.0190 euros)Reporting by Giulio Piovaccari and Gilles Guillaume, editing by Agnieszka Flak and Keith WeirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Europe Business & Economics |
British Conservative MP Rishi Sunak leaves his home address in London, Britain October 22, 2022. REUTERS/Maja SmiejkowskaLONDON, Oct. 24 (Reuters) - Former British finance minister Rishi Sunak was declared the next leader of Britain's Conservative Party by the head of the 1922 Committee of Conservative lawmakers on Monday, placing him on course to become the country's next prime minister.The initial reaction across markets was fairly muted, as investors will likely wait to hear from Sunak when he makes a statement at 1330 GMT.The pound briefly edged higher against the dollar before slipping into negative territory, while the blue-chip FTSE 100 held on to the day's gains.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: FTSE 100 (.FTSE) rises 0.7% on the day, but still underperforming the broader European markets, where the STOXX 600 is up 1.8%.FOREX: Sterling falls 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1291, having hit a session high of $1.1402 and activity remains volatile.BOND MARKETS: Ten-year gilt yields are down 23 basis points on the day at 3.82%.COMMENTS:MICHAEL BROWN, HEAD OF MARKET INTELLIGENCE, CAXTON, LONDON:"It seems that the announcement was pretty well priced in by this point - especially after sterling’s notable gains at the Asia open last night. Having said that, Sunak taking over as PM should restore a significant amount of credibility around UK policy, which is likely to limit downside for sterling assets in the near term."DANNI HEWSON, FINANCIAL ANALYST AT AJ BELL, LONDON:"The markets are confident that they know the kind of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is likely going to be because they know the kind of chancellor that he was and clearly he understood how damaging those unfunded tax cuts were likely to be.The yields have come down, which just demonstrates that the markets do feel more comfortable and they feel that once again the UK is getting back to the kind of economy that they would expect from an established economy rather than an emerging economy.With the pound, just because we have a new Prime Minister in place, all of the issues don't just go away and we still have remarkable strength being enjoyed by the dollar."GILES COGHLAN, ANALYST, HYCM, LONDON:“With Rishi Sunak named as the UK’s third prime minister in three months, the question now is whether today's events will mark the beginning of a turn higher for the GBP as confidence returns in the Government’s fiscal plans.However Sunak’s premiership unfolds, there are likely to be more difficult times ahead for the UK economy as it grapples its way out of a worsening downturn and even the prospect of a general election – upheaval which could derail the markets further.That said, there is one aspect of help for the GBP that is often overlooked. On the other side of the Atlantic, a slowdown in Federal Reserve policy would likely help lift the GBP as much, if even not more, than UK fiscal policy.”Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Harry Robertson, Bansuri Mayur and Danilo Masoni; writing by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Karin StroheckerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | United Kingdom Business & Economics |
Image source, Getty ImagesSome of the world's top oil-producing countries have agreed to cut the amount they export in a decision expected to raise petrol prices around the world.Members of Opec+ - a group that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia - said they would slash production by two million barrels per day.The group said it wanted to stabilise prices, which have fallen in recent months as the world economy slows.But the decision raised fears that prices for motorists will climb.Expectations that countries were planning to pump less had already pushed oil prices higher this week, including by almost 2% to more than $93 a barrel on Wednesday.A spokesman for the RAC motoring group said the reduction announced Wednesday would "inevitably" lead to higher oil prices, forcing up the wholesale cost of fuel."The question is when, and to what extent, retailers choose to pass these increased costs on at their forecourts," spokesman Simon Williams said.The cut announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies marks the biggest reduction by the group since the height of the pandemic in 2020.It comes despite pleas from the US and others to pump more, after oil prices spiked this spring when the war in Ukraine disrupted supplies.In a statement, the White House said US President Joe Biden was "disappointed by the short-sighted decision". The US pledged to continue to release oil from national stockpiles "as appropriate" and look at other ways to try to rein in prices at the pump. The move is also likely to disrupt US-led efforts to set a price cap for oil from Russia, a plan the US had suggested as a way to limit money flowing into the country and being put toward military use.Opec members defended their decision as a response to significant "uncertainty" about future demand for oil, amid fears that the global economy is headed to a recession."The decision is technical, not political," United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazroui told reporters as Opec+ members gathered in Vienna to discuss the plans.Oil politicsAnalysis by Sameer Hashmi, Middle East business corrrespondent The latest decision by OPEC+ is not just significant for oil markets, but for geopolitics as well. The fact that the Saudi-led cartel has taken this decision just three months after President Joe Biden's controversial trip to Saudi Arabia to convince the kingdom's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to pump more barrels to cool down prices is a huge blow for the White House. The move not only carries the risk of pushing up oil prices but will also damage efforts by the West to restrict the Russian oil income used to sustain its war in Ukraine.Many countries will see this as a clear indication of major oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia siding with Russia in the name of protective oil market management. It appears that the decision had support across the group as the OPEC+ energy ministers approved the proposal in a meeting that lasted 30 minutes. As far as oil markets go, even though this is a substantial reduction, the actual impact on global supplies on the ground would be smaller because several members of OPEC+ are already pumping far below their official quotas. But that may not be enough to calm the sentiments of the oil markets in the coming days.Higher oil prices were a major driver of the run-up in consumer prices that hit countries around the world earlier this year, pushing inflation rates to levels not seen in decades and raising political tensions. The more recent drop had provided some relief to consumers, even as prices of many other staples, including food, continue to rise.A barrel of Brent Crude oil was trading at $84.06 in late September - down from highs of around $130 this spring.Despite falling oil prices and concerns about the global economy, Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist for research firm Capital Economics, said it was unusual timing to slash supply."Global oil stocks are historically low and, so far, high prices have failed to materially dent demand," she added.Analysts said that the impact of the cuts is likely to be less significant than its size might suggest, since some countries were already producing less than they had said they would, with Capital predicting a 1% drop in global supplies as a result.Kathleen Brooks, director at Minerva Analysis, said the output cut was the "worst case scenario people were looking for" - one that would weigh on UK financial markets and raise fears that prices across the economy would continue to rise.It "changes the narrative in terms of peak inflation - we might not be there yet," she said. | Energy & Natural Resources |
The nation is bound for the ballot box today to cast their vote in a historic referendum that could shape the country for generations to come, but the path to this poll has been a rocky one.
Today all Australians will have to decide if they support changing the constitution to "recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice".
If the majority of Australians in the majority of states vote Yes to this referendum, a new chapter will be inserted into the constitution.
The government of the day will then have the power to bring into law an Indigenous committee to advise the parliament and executive on issues that affect Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
The official six-week campaign has been filled with accusations of racism, misinformation and division, amid pleas for decency, empathy and goodwill.
But the fight for this referendum has been years in the making. At times many people questioned whether it would happen at all, and now with it on our doorstep, polls suggest the proposed amendment is unlikely to pass.
On one side of the debate is the Albanese government, backed by a number of prominent Indigenous Australians as well as a long list of Aboriginal land councils, health services and cultural groups.
On the No side are the federal opposition and conservatives, led by their key campaigners Country Liberal Senator Jacinta Nampijipanpa Price and businessman Nyunggai Warren Mundine, and a "progressive No" contingent represented in parliament by independent Senator Lidia Thorpe.
Today it's up to the nation to decide: do Indigenous Australians have the right to a Voice to Parliament?Loading...
Remote leaders say 'listen to us'
This is the second time Australians have been asked to vote on the rights of Indigenous Australians. In 1967, the nation voted overwhelmingly for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples to be counted in the Census.
Mamie Butler from Papulankutja, a remote community on the Western Australia-Northern Territory border, lived through that first referendum.
She was also one of the senior Anangu women who met and performed a community song for the prime minister in front of Uluru just days before the referendum.
"Listen everyone, listen everyone, our home is a beautiful country," she said.
She is part of the NPY Women's Council, who challenge the disadvantage and disempowerment felt in their remote communities every day. They describe themselves as "big Yes" supporters.
It is on their ancient ancestral lands that the Voice to Parliament was conceived.
"Our grandfathers and grandmothers from long ago know this land and its sacred places and sacred stories and laws," Ms Butler said, reciting lyrics that have been translated into English. "So why won't you listen to us?"
On the other side, Indigenous No supporters like independent Senator Lidia Thorpe claim a No vote will be a "win" for her Black Sovereign movement, while Senator Price says she will feel "a sense of relief" that a "divisive campaign is over".
Throughout this campaign, Senator Price has argued the Voice would further divide the nation and rejected claims it could empower remote Indigenous communities.
The path to a referendum
Constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians has been on the agenda for more than two decades and more than seven prime ministers.
The Voice model was the result of many dialogues, meetings and committees, led by the Referendum Council initiated by the former Coalition government.
It culminated with the First Nations Constitutional Convention at Uluru in 2017, where Indigenous delegates debated and discussed the best model of change.
After days of talks, they presented the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
Overwhelmingly they rejected a symbolic recognition of First Nations peoples' enduring connection and occupation of the continent of Australia and called for "meaningful" change.
"We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the constitution," Megan Davis read from the freshly printed Uluru Statement of the Heart at the foot of Uluru.
Some of those who attended the meeting marched out, including Lidia Thorpe, who said: "We do not recognise the occupying power or their sovereignty because it serves to disempower; [it] takes away our voice."
At the time many questioned if a national vote on the issue would ever happen.
Referendum bound for 'death by process'
Within months, Malcolm Turnbull's government rejected the Voice proposal, stating it was "neither desirable or capable of winning acceptance".
The Indigenous affairs minister at the time, Nigel Scullion, described the rejection as something of a mercy killing, with the cabinet convinced it had "zero chance of success".
"The only other alternative would be death by process," Mr Scullion said.
Over the following years, the architects of the Uluru Statement continued to advocate for a constitutional voice, winning the support of major corporations, bodies and Labor leaders.
The Coalition then considered a legislated Voice model for regional and local communities, with a major report commissioned to consider some design principles.
But when the 2022 federal election rolled around, a national vote on a constitutionally enshrined Voice again entered the realm of possibility.
At the outset of his election night victory speech, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said: "On behalf of the Australian Labor Party, I commit to the Uluru Statement from the heart in full."
Within months, he committed to holding a referendum within the first term of his government.
No vote 'unbearable' to some Indigenous leaders
But if the polls are to be believed, the support for this constitutional change model has tanked and looks unlikely to win support.
With that vote now upon us, the possibility of the Voice referendum failing is "almost unbearable", said Josie Douglas, a Wardaman women and policy director at the Central Land Council (CLC).
The council serves and represents a number of communities in Central Australia, that speak more than 15 different languages and are spread across more 777,000 square kilometres.
The CLC have their headquarters in Alice Springs, the same place that Senator Price calls home.
"People overwhelmingly want change, and the opportunity for that change is before us right now … our people have been living with the same old same for generations," Ms Douglas said.
"We are trying to correct the power imbalance, the power is currently from well-intentioned public servants who have little understanding of our lives in remote communities.
"Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are best placed to provide advice on the issues that affect them."
Meanwhile, key No campaigner Warren Mundine told ABC's AM radio program earlier in the week: "I've prepared a speech and whether it's a yes or no it's the same speech."
"Let's say No gets up, it's not about a celebration, It's about putting a handout and wanting us all to work together and then move forward."Loading
Many in the community are already preparing for what they believe could be difficult days ahead, while constitutional experts warn a failed referendum could put off future governments from holding another one in the future.
This week Labor Senator Patrick Dodson — who has been described as the Godfather of Reconciliation — said Australians will have to "look in the mirror" and ask "how is this going to impact your kids and yourself going forward?".
"Are we going to go backwards? Cop more of the same? Are the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people going to be at the table or picking up the crumbs? As we have been for the last 200 years." | Australia Business & Economics |
Fifteen months ago, a proud Daniel Andrews strode into a regional Australian stadium and announced Victoria state would host the 2026 Commonwealth Games - promising "a games like no other".
But on Tuesday Mr Andrews - decidedly less jubilant - faced a media pack as he tersely revealed the state he leads would walk away from its contract.
It throws plans for the event into chaos and the future of the Games into doubt.
After a tough few years for organisers, experts say this could be the final straw.
"This could spell the end of the Commonwealth Games," says Steve Georgakis, a sports studies lecturer at the University of Sydney.
"It could be a death knell," Australian sports historian Matthew Klugman agrees.
How did we get here?
Finding a host for the 2026 Games was always a struggle.
The Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) had originally aimed to name a city in 2019, but hopeful bidders fell like dominoes - mostly over cost concerns - leaving organisers unable to lock in a host until three years later.
Mr Andrews, the state's premier, says organisers had approached his government, and initially they were "happy to help out".
The event was supposed to be a massive boost for the regional cities hosting it, at a cost of A$2.6 billion (£1.4bn; $1.8bn).
But the cost of staging the 12-day Games had ballooned to more than A$6bn, Mr Andrews said.
"I've made a lot of difficult calls, a lot of very difficult decisions in this job. This is not one of them," he told reporters.
The CGF say they were blindsided by Victoria's decision, and dispute the estimates.
The body also cited the state's "unique regional delivery model" as the primary reason behind rising costs.
CGF's Australian arm - Commonwealth Games Australia (CGA) - said they'd look to convince other state governments that the numbers were a "gross exaggeration" and the investment is sound.
"We are taking advice on the options available to us and remain committed to finding a solution for the Games in 2026 that is in the best interest of our athletes and the wider Commonwealth Sport movement," CGF said in a statement.
But this is a sadly familiar problem for the CGF.
It struggled to find viable takers for the 2022 event too.
Durban was supposed to be the first city in Africa to stage the Games, but were stripped of hosting rights in 2017 after running into money troubles and missing key deadlines.
Nine months later, Birmingham and the British government intervened to save the event, stumping up a combined $1bn for what became the best attended Commonwealth Games on record.
Now just three years out from the 2026 Games - a short window in which to pull together a global, multi-sport event - the CGF is hunting for a saviour.
But it looks like an uphill task.
Already, the leaders of every other Australian state have ruled out picking up the tab.
Western Australia's premier Roger Cook called the event "ruinously expensive", saying "the Commonwealth Games aren't what they used to be".
And while New South Wales was widely seen as the most viable Australian alternative due to its existing infrastructure, its premier Chris Minns said, "hosting the Commonwealth Games would be something nice to do. Schools and hospitals are must do's".
Australia's last host city - the Gold Coast, which held the event in 2018 - says it would be "impractical to think that any city could step in now with such a short timeframe".
And even if it was possible, few countries have the means.
Just one Games has been held outside the UK or Australia in the last 20 years - the 2010 outing in the Indian capital, Delhi.
Originally expected to cost $270m, India ended up spending 16 times that - almost $4.1bn.
Australia is one of the richest nations in the Commonwealth, and, Dr Georgakis says, historically the event's most enthusiastic supporter.
"If Australia can't host the Games, well, what chance does one of the small former colonies have?"
Dwindling relevancy
But it isn't just cost at play here.
Critics of Victoria's decision point out the state blows a lot of money on similar global sporting events - for example, it's spending millions to jointly host the FIFA Women's World Cup, which begins on Thursday.
Mr Andrews anticipated this, repeatedly stressing that the 2026 Games just didn't deliver a "return on investment" like other events.
"[It's] all cost and no benefit," he said.
Experts say the competition's global image and perceived relevance are waning.
Firstly, the event doesn't attract the same star power it used to.
Last year several leading names opted to miss the Games, including British diving champion Tom Daley, Australian swim darling Cate Campbell, and track stars Andre de Grasse, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce and Shericka Jackson.
Sprinting great Usain Bolt once reportedly made a disparaging remark about the event - he claims he was misquoted, even though the journalist published a transcript.
"There's much less interest than there used to be," says Dr Klugman.
"It's not the phenomenon that it was even in the 1990s. It does reflect a changing world."
Part of that changing world is a growing indifference to the original purpose of the Games.
Initially called the Empire Games when they began in 1930, the competition was a tool to keep the colonies of Britain together, historians say.
"And in an empire that's starting to crack under a whole heap of challenges, it is still seen as a chance to maintain and solidify power," Dr Klugman says.
But more and more former colonies are distancing themselves from Britain, with many either becoming republics or, like Australia, weighing it up.
"The Australia of 1938 is very different to Australia in 2023," said Dr Georgakis.
"It's hard to get people that are not from a British background buying into this concept of uniting Australia with the mother country and the other former colonies."
Combined with that is heightened awareness and scrutiny over the colonial history of the competition.
In 1982 the games were branded the "Stolenwealth Games" by Indigenous Australians, a moniker it hasn't been able to shake.
"It's called Stolenwealth for a good reason," says Klugman. "These were the places where value was extracted and taken back to the heart of the empire."
And with Australia in the grips of both a cost of living crisis and a debate over recognising its Indigenous people in the constitution, some say pouring billions into the Games would be a terrible look.
A 'strategic' rebrand
The CGF knows it is in a fight for the Games' survival.
Its president, Dame Louise Martin, in 2018 said it was facing an "existential crisis".
"In recent times, our federation has done a lot of soul-searching to look at our impact and meaning," she said.
And in a strategic plan covering the next decade the organisation said: "There is no easy way of saying the Commonwealth has a challenging history linked to colonial roots."
"Work has already started to alter the focus from the hegemony of the British Empire to one of global peace."
It is unclear what that means practically.
But for all the questions of its relevance, the Games remain deeply important to the athletes that compete.
For many sports like netball, it is the pinnacle of their competition, and many athletes have expressed deep disappointment at the decision.
Race walker Jemima Montag says it has robbed her of the opportunity of winning a third gold medal in front of a home crowd.
And Australian swimmer Rowan Crothers points out the cancellation is particularly painful for people with disabilities.
The Commonwealth Games is the only major international competition that features athletes with a disability alongside able-bodied athletes.
"[It's] a great opportunity to raise awareness for disabled sport. Seeing the Games cancelled will suck for the state of inclusion," he wrote on Twitter.
"For some athletes, a gold medal at the Commonwealth Games means more than a gold medal at the Paralympics⦠recognition and equality can mean more than achievement." | Australia Business & Economics |
The Canadian government is recruiting high-skilled foreigners working in the United States to move to Canada instead – and the program has been so successful that it met its target of 10,000 applicants in just two days.
Canada this week launched a special work permit for foreign workers who already have obtained an H-1B visa in the US, who number nearly 600,000 and come mostly from India and China. The program’s 10,000 quota was filled in the first two days of the week, a spokesman for Canada’s immigration minister, Sean Fraser, said on Wednesday.
“We even had a whole campaign to promote this and we had to put an end to that,” spokesman Jeremy Bellefeuille said.
It is unusual for a country to so explicitly target the visa holders of another country. Bellefeuille said the program was a trial run, and that the minister would now consider next steps.
Each year, up to 85,000 people are selected for H-1B visas in the US, a mainstay for technology giants such as Amazon.com Inc, Google parent Alphabet Inc, Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc and International Business Machines Corp.
The H-1B visa program allows US companies to employ foreign workers in specialized occupations in sectors like technology, engineering and medicine. Usually, they are issued for three years and renewable. Most of the nearly 600,000 H-1B visa holders in the US are from India and China.
If they are fired or let go from the company in the US that sponsored them they have to find a job and be sponsored within 60 days.
Fraser promoted the Canadian work permit aimed at America H-1B visa holders at the Collision tech conference in Toronto last month. The conference attracts technology workers from around the world.
The moves come as a wave of layoffs have hit the tech sector. Companies such as Meta, Amazon and Google have made cuts.
The Canadian work permit includes study or work permit options for the accompanying family members of US H-1B visa holders. It became available on 16 July and was scheduled to remain in effect for one year, or until immigration authorities received 10,000 applications.
Bruce Heyman, a US ambassador to Canada during the Obama administration, said Canada’s gain in the program would be the US’s loss.
“Canada sees the opportunity to bring talented individuals into Canada and if we can’t keep them shame on us and kudos to Canada for identifying the opportunity and attracting them,” Heyman said.
“Being attractive for the best and brightest to come to America has always been a key to our success and any diminution of that comes with a lot of risk, especially since our birthrate is running below replacement rate right now,” Heyman said. | Workforce / Labor |
South Korean won, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen notes are seen on U.S. $100 notes in this file photo illustration shot December 15, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji//IllustrationRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSINGAPORE, July 4 (Reuters) - The dollar kept trade-sensitive currencies pinned near multi-year lows on Monday and the euro was under pressure as investors sought safety due to worries about slowing global growth.Data on Friday showed euro zone inflation surging to another record, adding to the case for the European Central Bank to hike interest rates this month. read more While the common currency was steady at $1.0435 on Monday, it is barely above May's five-year trough of $1.0349 and highlights the market's preference for dollars as gloom clouds the outlook.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe Australian and New Zealand dollars hit two-year lows on Friday and weren't far from those levels early in the Asia session, with the Aussie down 0.3% to $0.6796, after falling to as low as $0.6764 on Friday. The kiwi slipped 0.1% to $0.6197.Trade is likely to be lightened ahead of the Independence Day holiday in the United States.Safety flows tend to support the greenback, especially at the expense of trade and export-driven currencies, when the world economy is weak. This has kept the dollar elevated even as growth fears have tempered U.S. rate hike expectations.The U.S. dollar index stood at 105.100, not far below last month's two-decade high of 105.790. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's much-watched GDP Now forecast has slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession. read more "The Aussie and other commodity currencies and even euro and sterling will likely decline even more into the week, given markets currently are super-focused on the risk of a sharp slowdown in the global economy," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.Sterling hit a two-week low of $1.1976 on Friday and last bought $1.2095.Ahead this week, Australia' central bank meets on Tuesday and investors are also awaiting the publication of minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, and U.S. employment data on Friday.Markets have priced in a 40 basis point (bp) hike in Australia, so the Aussie may not catch much of a boost if that is delivered.Minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are almost certain to sound hawkish given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 bps.The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end - before cuts in 2023.Against Asian currencies the dollar held Friday gains that lifted it to its strongest levels in years on the Thai baht , Indonesian rupiah and Singapore dollar .The Chinese yuan began the onshore session steady at 6.7021 per dollar.========================================================Currency bid prices at 0135 GMTAll spotsTokyo spotsEurope spotsVolatilitiesTokyo Forex market info from BOJRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Rae Wee; Writing and additional reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sonali DesaiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Forex Trading & Speculation |
A daily wage laborer waits for work at a wholesale market in Colombo, Sri Lanka on June 26. Sri Lankans have endured months of shortages of food, fuel and other necessities due to the country's dwindling foreign exchange reserves and mounting debt. Photo: AP Photo/Eranga JayawardenJason Anthony has been in a two-kilometre fuel queue for two days now. In the capital city of Colombo, in the crisis-hit South Asian nation of Sri Lanka, the 35-year-old sleeps in his tuktuk when he’s exhausted, or sits on the pavement with other drivers who have been there for several days too. When the fuel station closes for the day, he walks several kilometres back home, only to return the next day to queue up. He showed VICE World News his makeshift home by the road over a video call. “I was forced to quit my job as a tourist guide in February when things got bad here and tourists stopped coming. I had to become a tuktuk driver,” Anthony said. “Now, the fuel is so scarce that I’ve not worked in the last month. I can barely make ends meet at home but I’m forced to spend my days at fuel stations.” In addition to a 2-kilometre queue for tuktuks, there are separate queues for cars and public buses. Many have been waiting for over five days, and the sight of people lining up for fuel for hours or days has come to symbolise a looming humanitarian crisis in the country of 22 million people, one that is worsening each day. Tuktuk driver Jason Anthony in Colombo shares moments from his two-day wait at the fuel queue. He's nowhere close to the fuel pump today. Photos: Jason AnthonyAs Sri Lanka sinks deeper into debt and runs out of foreign exchange reserves, basic necessities like food and fuel are fast dwindling too. On Tuesday, the Sri Lankan government announced that there’s just enough fuel to run essential services like healthcare, trains and public buses for two weeks. The garment sector—the largest contributor to the country’s GDP and a crucial source of income for nearly three million formal and informal workers —only has enough fuel to last 10 days. On Sunday, the government hiked fuel prices by over 22 percent, citing an indefinite delay in oil shipments due to a lack of forex. Last week, newly-appointed Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe admitted at a parliament meeting that the country’s economy has hit rock bottom. “We are now facing a far more serious situation beyond mere shortages of fuel, gas, electricity and food,” he said. “Our economy has completely collapsed.” The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, owned by the government and the main supplier of fuel in the country, is in debt to the tune of $700 million. So far, the country has received over 400,000 metric tonnes of fuel consignments from India, along with $500 million in financial aid to buy fuel. By April, Sri Lanka had used up 60 percent of the $500 million credit line. “As a result [of this fuel debt], no country or organisation in the world is willing to provide fuel to us. They are even reluctant to provide fuel for cash,” Wickremesinghe added in his parliament address. On Sunday, the government said it will send its ministers to Russia and Qatar to buy cheap oil on concessionary terms in the coming days. Citizens on the ground are feeling the pinch more than ever. Apart from the fuel crisis, people can’t afford staple food items like rice, milk, fruit and vegetables. On June 17, the government ordered its officials to work from home to save fuel and grow their own food in their backyards amid the country’s acute shortages. In hospitals, doctors say they’ve run out of life-saving drugs and medical equipment. Hundreds of desperate Sri Lankans have been caught illegally fleeing the country by sea, including to as far afield as Australia, to escape the crisis. Earlier this month, a woman in Colombo threw her five-year-old son off a bridge into a river, and attempted to jump off as well but was saved by passersby. Police told the media her actions were motivated by her desperation at the economic crisis. Wimal Jayasuriya, a martial arts teacher in Colombo who relies heavily on public transport, said his children can’t go to school anymore because buses are either out of fuel, or are too crowded to board. “We keep getting told that there’ll be fuel, but we’re tired of waiting everyday,” the 43-year-old told VICE World News. “I don’t have a permanent job and we live in a rented apartment. Everyday is a struggle for us to exist.”“The worst setback is on our children, who are getting deprived of not just food and nutrition, but also education now,” he addedSince March, at least 12 people have died in fuel lines, succumbing to exhaustion and illnesses as they endured Sri Lanka’s searing heat. Fuel stations are seeing bouts of violence despite increasing security presence to quell them. Sri Lanka’s meltdown has become a cautionary tale for developing countries living through a global economic unwinding that has spread across the globe as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As Sri Lanka has sunk into recession, mass protests have rocked the country for over 100 days. Protesters blame the Sri Lankan government for the economic collapse, ruled since 2019 by the powerful and corrupt president Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Last week, Sri Lankan troops opened fire after protests over fuel turned violent. Four citizens and three soldiers were injured. Even before this crisis, more than 4 percent of Sri Lanka’s population—nearly 900,000 people—already lived below the national poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank. The country is seeing a record inflation rate of nearly 40 percent—among the worst in the world—as the price of food skyrockets and hundreds of thousands more are pushed into poverty as they lose their jobs. “Resources are either finished or they’re too expensive for the common man,” said tuktuk driver Anthony. “No wonder the anger and the protests are not going away.”Follow Pallavi Pundir on Twitter.ORIGINAL REPORTING ON EVERYTHING THAT MATTERS IN YOUR INBOX.By signing up, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy & to receive electronic communications from Vice Media Group, which may include marketing promotions, advertisements and sponsored content. | Asia Business & Economics |
A worker plants seedlings for reforestation at Huayquecha Biological Station near Paucartambo, Cusco, December 5, 2014. REUTERS/Enrique Castro-MendivilRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comLONDON, June 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The energy transition is potentially big business. To have a good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the globe needs to be spending $5 trillion a year on new power sources and infrastructure by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. The capital to do so is poorly directed, though. To make a difference, investors will have to get their hands dirty.There’s no shortage of money managers eager to make a difference. Signatories of the United Nations’ Principles for Responsible Investment, which tries to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment decisions, have swelled to 4,375 institutions collectively looking after $121 trillion. A third of these, including influential investors like Harvard University’s $42 billion endowment fund, have publicly committed to remove fossil fuels from their portfolios. This approach, known as divestment, may not be the best strategy.There’s a seductive logic to washing your hands of polluting companies. If everyone sells the dirtiest assets, their owners will be starved of capital. Even massive oil groups like Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) might then be forced to change their ways. This idea has become ubiquitous among investors using ESG criteria. Metrics like Morningstar’s “globe” ratings reward funds that have fewer “brown” assets. Investors are helping climate activists press companies to ditch their dirtiest businesses.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThis approach can be bad for business and for climate change, though. Take mining giant Anglo American (AAL.L), which last year spun off its thermal coal assets into an outfit called Thungela Resources (TGAJ.J). In the last year, Thungela’s market capitalisation has risen 10-fold to nearly $2 billion, as the energy security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted governments to reassess coal-fired power. The company’s new management is keen to hike output.BHP (BHP.AX) boss Mike Henry seems to have noticed. The $150 billion mining giant last week reversed course on a plan to sell its thermal coal assets, saying it would keep them until 2030. Green activists will complain that BHP gets to pocket the proceeds of selling coal, which will account for a tenth of BHP’s free cash flow in 2023, according to Jefferies analysts. However, the miner’s plan to phase out coal by 2030 is in keeping with the path to net zero outlined by the 2016 Paris Agreement. A buyer of the asset might have been willing to extend its life.BHP’s approach has intellectual backing. ESG academic Alex Edmans accepts divestment makes it harder to finance polluting assets in primary markets. But he counters that an investor who forces a sale also forgoes the share price boost that can be unlocked by persuading a company to change direction.One example is Orsted (ORSTED.CO). The $40 billion Danish wind farm operator is a favourite of asset managers eager to swap their fossil fuel investments for more sustainable energy providers. But the really smart investors were those who owned DONG Energy, Orsted’s fossil fuel-burning predecessor, when it transitioned from oil and gas to renewable energy. Anyone who invested in DONG at the time of its 2016 listing, before it rebranded and sold its fossil fuel operations, would have made a total return of 200%. By contrast, investors who bought Orsted shares in early 2021, when they were trading at more than 40 times earnings, have lost money.Backing away from divestment has potential drawbacks. Unscrupulous investors could pocket the cash flows from fossil fuels without doing anything substantial to change polluting business models. Increasingly, however, shareholders require companies to align their assets with a decarbonisation plan. The quality of emissions disclosure is also growing, making it harder for investors to do nothing.The shift in thinking has spawned a new generation of so-called “transition” funds which focus on tough decarbonisation targets. Take Brookfield’s (BAMa.TO) $15 billion Global Transition Fund, headed by ex-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, which on Wednesday completed its fundraising. The Canadian asset management giant will invest approximately a third of the vehicle’s capital in renewable energy bets and another third in technology that enables polluters to decarbonise, for example by capturing and storing carbon dioxide. It will deploy the rest funding projects to reduce carbon emissions, for example by helping real estate groups make their buildings more energy efficient.The risk is that funds like these get shamed for owning polluting assets. But a transition fund is only worthy of the name if its investments have meaningful short-term targets to decarbonise. Brookfield, for example, will require each of its investments to cut carbon at the same rate as the 2016 Paris Agreement assumes for their respective sectors, and submit to independent vetting. Similar endeavours like Aviva’s (AV.L) 1.6 billion pounds of transition funds, Generation Investment Management’s Just Climate fund and BlackRock’s (BLK.N) newly announced strategy for transition investing should face similar scrutiny.It remains to be seen whether transition funds can generate good returns from helping dirty companies get cleaner. But the scale of the opportunity means firms like Brookfield have the advantage of being first. In time, ESG investors who boast of their pristine portfolios may seem outdated when compared with those that are prepared to get their hands dirty.Follow @gfhay on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSBrookfield Global Transition Fund (BGTF) said on June 22 it had increased its assets under management to $15 billion, over twice an initial $7 billion target, making it the world’s largest private fund focused on the global transition to a net-zero carbon economy.Brookfield said 100 investors including public and private pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, endowments and foundations, financial institutions, and family offices had committed capital. It has previously disclosed that Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, Temasek, PSP Investments and Investment Management Corporation of Ontario were initial investors in the fund. Brookfield is the largest investor in BGTF, which is co-headed by former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Connor Teskey.Brookfield said BGTF would focus on investments to accelerate the global transition to a net-zero economy while delivering strong risk-adjusted returns for investors. It will invest in the transformation of carbon-intensive industries, as well as the development and accessibility of clean energy sources. Approximately $2.5 billion has been deployed from the fund to date.BlackRock said on June 16 it would establish an infrastructure strategy to partner with leading infrastructure businesses over the long term to help drive the global energy transition. Over half of the strategy will be allocated to Europe initially, becoming increasingly global over the decades to come.The scheme will start with “single-digit billions”, the Financial Times reported on June 16.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comEditing by Peter Thal Larsen and Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. | Energy & Natural Resources |
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