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Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices. The historical prices are: 10793.34, 10604.41, 10668.97, 10915.69, 11064.46, 11296.36, 11384.18, 11555.36, 11425.90, 11429.51, 11495.35, 11322.12, 11358.10, 11483.36, 11742.04, 11916.33, 12823.69, 12965.89, 12931.54, 13108.06, 13031.17, 13075.25, 13654.22, 13271.29, 13437.88, 13546.52, 13781.00, 13737.11, 13550.49, 13950.30, 14133.71, 15579.85, 15565.88, 14833.75, 15479.57, 15332.32, 15290.90, 15701.34, 16276.34, 16317.81, 16068.14, 15955.59, 16716.11, 17645.41, 17804.01, 17817.09, 18621.31, 18642.23, 18370.00, 18364.12, 19107.46, 18732.12, 17150.62, 17108.40, 17717.41, 18177.48, 19625.84, 18803.00, 19201.09, 19445.40, 18699.77, 19154.23, 19345.12, 19191.63, 18321.14, 18553.92, 18264.99, 18058.90, 18803.66, 19142.38, 19246.64, 19417.08, 21310.60, 22805.16, 23137.96, 23869.83, 23477.29, 22803.08, 23783.03, 23241.35, 23735.95, 24664.79, 26437.04, 26272.29, 27084.81, 27362.44, 28840.95, 29001.72, 29374.15, 32127.27.
|
[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2021-01-02]
Volume: 67865420765, RSI (14-day): 87.57, 50-day EMA: 21693.04, 200-day EMA: 15113.14
[Wider Market Context]
None available.
[Recent News (last 7 days)]
10 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Years According To ARK’s Cathie Wood: In this article we presented the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 5 years according to ARK's Cathie Wood. Click to skip ahead and see5 Long-Term Stock Picks According To Cathie Wood.
Having one of her best years in the history of professional money management,ARK Investment Managementfounder and CEO, Cathie Wood sees20% returnsafter 'unbelievable' 2020. "Oh, it's been unbelievable!" said Cathie when asked about what it feels like to achieve such milestone in her career in an interview withBloomberg.
"ARK Investment Management is a registered investment adviser in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Founded by Cathie Wood, ARK's goal is to focus solely on disruptive innovation while adding new dimensions to research. ARK uses an approach that cuts across sectors, market capitalizations, and geographies," according to the description of ARK's official website. ARK focuses on large-scale investment opportunities in the public markets resulting from technological innovations centered aroundDNA sequencing, robotics,artificial intelligence, energy storage, and blockchain technology.
"The coronavirus created tremendous number of problems and our portfolios are all about solving problems." Cathy stated. "Our investors have been rewarded for helping to solve some of the world's most profound problems." She added, talking about how she and her company made their investors earn despite the pandemic.
Cathy was also asked if she is enjoying her current celebrity status and here's how she responded, "I am enjoying the celebrity(status). It's fun. I love what I'm doing. I love the team I'm working with, I love our research, I love bringing life to new ways of looking at the world, helping people understand how the world's going to change not only their investment portfolios but also in their own lives, their children's lives, their grandchildren's lives. Helping them understand how to move everyone to the right side of change and really benefit from the exponential growth trajectories that are just taking off now."
Directly speaking, Cathy mentioned that, whenever things have gone this well for her, usually there's a correction waiting around the bend. She said that when this correction comes, she wants to be prepared, that she must protect the earnings on the table and to also prepare their investors for the possibility of acquiring 'some' losses and say, "Just keep some powder dry because what we're looking at here are long-term exponential growth trajectories." According to Cathy, no one can stop progress so people must learn to embrace it. "I just have to keep my eye on the prize." Cathy exclaimed, saying that we must always expect corrections and we must be prepared for corrections. Nothing is straight up in the investment world and we will always experience these corrections. For Cathy, sometimes investors must take a bit of their money off the table and keep some powder dry in order to somewhat protect their investments from getting burned by these pullbacks.
Asked about being concerned for the consequences of having a bad year, Cathy responded confidently, "One bad year would not worry us.Our investment time horizon is five years." She also emphasized that they have projections which they develop from the top-down approach, trying to understand how technologies are going to scale and also from the bottom-up approach, about how companies are going to embrace these new technologies and ride their coattails.
"For the next five years, we believe that our returns will compound at an annual rate of something in the20% range." Cathy projected. Traditional equity returns have been in the seven to eight percent range over time and that is why they believe there's still a lot of room or runway ahead. She made Amazon as an example of the stock she bought in the early 2000s, where people derided her decision to buy because of the thought process back then that focused on the tech and telecom. She highlighted that their portfolios right now are filled with 'Amazons', like a seed that were planted in the tech and telecom bubble that has been gestating all this time and now are trying to break out to growth trends.
"We expectmore than a doublingin our portfolio over the next five years." Cathy stated with full confidence when asked about achieving double returns five years from now. She was also questioned about which of her current holdings will supply the biggest lift and so she answered, "Tesla is still in the running but I would have to say, the biggest upside surprises are going to come from genomic space." According to Cathy, that is because the convergence of DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene therapies are going to 'cure disease'. This convergence enables us to anticipate diseases and cure them potentially.
A big surprise in Cathy's portfolio attribution is that the four biggest contributors to the S&P 500 namely, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook gave her only 20 points out of 600 points. Cathy acknowledged, "We're not saying they'll be bad stocks at all, in fact, they've been very good stocks and they were a part of our portfolios in the early days." She then emphasized that "But as they were scaling into the trillion-dollar category, we believe that our research should better focus on the next set of 'FANGs', and we actually think that the next 'FANGs' are in the genomic age. " That is why if you'll notice their flagship portfolio, thelargest exposure is in healthcare.
Cathy implied that their 'minimum' hurdle rate of return is 15% at a compound annual rate over the next 5 years and if their stocks lose the return expectation and drop below the 15% threshold, they would definitely move back towards some of their old FANGs because they would be treating those stocks as 'cash-like' instruments in relation to their strategy. She also stated that as the bull market extends, they move into more cash-like equities which are the less volatile stocks.
Talking aboutbitcoin, Cathy and the ARK's position on this particular asset is currently worth 7% of their total equity. She said they are still optimistic about bitcoin despite being at $20 thousand, then down to $17 and even below $4 thousand earlier this year. They are still optimistic because they learned that bitcoin threw off unqualified income which isnotillegal. "We areextremely bullish.Our confidence has gone up since 2017 because what we saw as it dropped from 20,000 to below 4,000, it actually got in well into the threes in 2019." she added. "Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the crypto ecosystem, which is very important. It's the flight to safety currency. Bitcoin's blockchain is the most secure of any other blockchain."
Cathy was also interviewed about the hate speeches she received from the investors who went short on Tesla when she tweeted a letter to Elon Musk in which she effectively put a bullish price target of $4000 to Tesla. When asked if she had any regrets (on her tweet to Elon), she replied, "Oh no, not at all. I didn't read the Twitter world of hate notes to me. We were standing up for what we thought was right and we also were astonished at the backlash." She also said that "He (Elon) is a provocative soul and he is brilliant! He's our renaissance man and what we should have done is keep our eye on the prize. We believe thatTeslawill be in a poll position todominatebecause of its advantages in artificial intelligence and the amount of data it has collected and the A.I. expertise that it has." According to her, Tesla's battery technology was already three to four years 'ahead' of the competition. Tesla has 15 billion miles of real world driving data collected and the next closest is Google with 25 million.
"I know we've been gratified to see how beautifully we're scaling and getting our message out which has helped our distributors." This is how Cathy responded when catechized about how she and her colleagues have harnessed social media as a tool for marketing and a tool to disseminate their ideas.ARKwas founded last 2014, it only has 26 employees but it is handling$50 billionworth of assets. "What goes around, comes around. One of ARK's mission is to educate people or the average investor about how their lives were going to change and how they might capitalize on these changes in their portfolios. " she remarked. "There's a virtuous cycle at work here and there's also a bit of a viral network effect taking place. I do think it's happening and I'm thrilled to be a part of it."
Cathie believes that there are five technology platforms that are changing the world today namely, artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, DNA sequencing, and blockchain. Asked if there could be a sixth, she responded, "We're looking closely atquantum computing." She based it on her experience of meeting a lot of professors from around the world, focused on the next big thing which is quantum computing. It was always in view of at least 10 years, but now we have the first little baby, which is therudimentary quantum computers.
When the talk was shifted about why Cathie chose the actively managed ETF as the wrapper for her strategy, this is what she said, "From a research point of view, we were asking ourselves why is that happening? We didn't know anything about ETF's and so we looked at what an ETF is and understood that there werefour reasonsthatETFs were starting to take share." Based on Cathie's research, ETF's are (1) more transparent, (2) more liquid, (3) they are lower in cost compared to mutual funds, and (4) they didn't have hidden fees. "And so for those four reasons, I just asked the question,why don't we put our fund into an ETF?This sounds like agood deal."she stated.
Everyone can start to wonder why Cathie didn't start a hedge fund because from a self-interested standpoint, she could definitely have been a lot richer than her current net worth. "I felt that the right thing to do was go where no one was and I've had good success over the years doing that." this is how she replied.
Cathie was also inquired, "Why not extend your investment thesis to private markets and raise money to invest in venture capital and in growth equity?" According to Cathie, one of the reasons was the low-hanging fruit in the public equity markets. Innovation had been neglected in the public markets. It had become overvalued in the private markets. "We are evolving some strategies and we hope that next year, we'll be able to launch something." she stated. "I would love to be able to offer a public-private option that would be available for all retail investors right now."
The ETF's of Cathie and ARK alone are generating an annualized run rate of $220 million in revenue. How profitable is this business? "It'svery profitablenow but believe me, the blood, sweat, and tears that we left in the early days-- It's a scalable model so we had to pay for the infrastructure in the early days and we were quite the loss-making company." said Cathie. She also stated that they were able to scale and have found the right talent in place. "I'm very happy to say that we are able to reward those who are making us happen."
For Cathie, the Japanese market is a very interesting market. A lot of clients and investors basically tell their distributors what they want to see, and so Cathie and the ARK learned from them. ARK's fintech portfolio came out of Japan. In the US, they have a space exploration fund and also an SDG fund (Sustainable Development Goals) and these are being monitored closely by Cathie and her group.
At the ending part, Cathie was asked, "If you had to build ARK all over again, what would you do differently?" She responded with a smile and said, "Oh! Probably we had to pivot because I told you I funded it for the 1st three to almost four years. Two and a half were there at 40 million dollars.We built it. They did not comeand I would not have built a captive distribution at the time but I would have been more aggressive about finding a distribution partner sooner."
In the perspective of Cathie Wood, the one thing every woman in finance should want generally is a great place to develop a good track record. "Building one's track record long enough usually is a ticket to more success. I always say, try and figure out a way to measure your success in a way that you know no one can take it away from you." She appended, "I have the highest regard for the industry. It is a heck of a lot of fun! It's extremely challenging. Solving the world's problem out there can't be anything more satisfying."
So, Cathie Wood sounded more bullish about genomic stocks than Tesla, but you will be surprised when you find out where she put most of her money. Let's take a look at Cathie Wood's 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 5 years:
Proto Labs, Inc. (PRLB) is a 3D printing company that returned more than 50% in 2020. Cathie Wood had a nearly 3.1 million share position at the end of September, making PRLB her 10th best stock to buy for the long-term. The position was worth $400 million at the end of September, but its current valuation is around $470 if left unchanged during the 4th quarter.
Major hedge fund managers has been shunning the 3D technology company as the total number of bullish hedge fund positions stood at 16 at the end of September. The second biggest hedge fund equity position belonged toMotley Fool Asset Managementat less than $6 million.
TREE ranks 9th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 5 years. Cathie Wood had $413 million invested in this stock at the end of September. Again she was by far the most bullish fund manager about this stock. The second largest equity holder of TREE in our database was quant hedge fund Two Sigma with a position valued at less than $13 million at the end of September.
Bernzott Capital Advisors talked about TREE in itsQ1 investor letter:
"“LendingTree (TREE): $2.6 billion market cap – Based in Charlotte, NC, the company operates an online marketplace for all types of consumer loans, including mortgage, home equity, auto, personal, and credit cards. TREE also offers a marketplace for all types of insurance and deposits, matching over 700 lenders with millions of consumers. TREE is not a balance sheet lender itself, thus assumes zero credit risk. TREE enjoys a ~31% share in its core market, generates strong margins and is led by an owner-operator CEO who is the second largest shareholder with 13% of the stock worth ~$500 million. The company is in the early stages of penetrating a large mortgage market opportunity, with room to grow from its current less than 2% of annual mortgage originations. TREE should to benefit from the secular shift by domestic financial services firms shifting ad spending to online. We initiated and then added to the position during the quarter, with the stock trading at an attractive discount to fair value.”
Cathie Wood probably believes that TREE will disrupt the mortgage origination market.
TDOC ranks 8th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for five years. Cathie Wood had $441 million invested in this telemedicine stock at the end of September. TDOC shares returned more than 130% in 2020. Telemedicine offers a convenient and lower cost alternative to medical office visits, and may even help lower overall medical expenses as more people take advantage of preventive annual doctor visits. However, Baron Discovery Fund thinks the stock might be overpriced at the moment. Here is what theysaid:
“We sold our remaining investment in Teladoc Health, Inc., one of our most successful investments ever. Our view was that the company’s valuation felt a bit extended, and its market capitalization at over $19 billion was too large for the Fund to hold. Moreover, we believe that, on a pro-forma basis, the market cap will be around $40 billion after its recent bid to merge with Livongo Health, Inc., a transaction expected to be completed in the fourth quarter. We hold Teladoc’s management in the highest regard and admire the incredible company it has built over the last few years.”
TWOU ranks 7th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for five years. Cathie Wood had nearly $500 million invested in the stock at the end of September. TWOU shares returned 67% in 2020. Quant hedge fundD.E. ShawandGreenvale Capitalare among the large hedge fund holders of the stock but their positions pale in comparison to ARK Investment's.
We previously highlighted 2U in our article about thebest artificial intelligence stocks to buyand said the following:
2U is an education technology company providing front-end and back-end cloud-based SaaS technology services to Universities. In August 2U, Inc. and Columbia Engineering announced a “partnership to deliver theColumbia Artificial Intelligence Program”.The $2.7 billion market cap company aims to be a leader in the digital transformation of the higher education market.
There were a ton ofinsider purchases in TWOUshares back in 2019 when the stock was trading at $15. Those insiders made more than 160% in less than 18 months.
Zillow ranks 6th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for the next 5 years. Cathie Wood had nearly $500 million invested in this stock and for the first time today she doesn't have the largest position in a stock. Karthik Sarma'sSRS Managementwas the largest hedge fund holder of Zillow with a $871 million position at the end of September. Here is what Baron Partners Fundsaidabout the stock recently:
“Zillow Group, Inc. operates leading U.S. real estate sites, a mortgage marketplace, and the Zillow Offers home-buying business. Shares were up on strong second quarter results driven by record top-of-funnel metrics and a favorable newly public comp for the Offers business. In our view, Zillow is well positioned to penetrate the large online real estate advertising opportunity with substantial upside from Offers, which could grow the company’s addressable market in both houses to be bought/sold and leads provided to Premier Agents, as well as from Zillow Home Loans.”
Click to continue reading and see the5 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Years. Suggested Articles:
• 10 Best Growth Stocks To Buy Now
• 12 Best Large-Cap Biotech Stocks To Buy Now
• 10 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now
Follow us on Twitter:https://twitter.com/insidermonkeyDisclosure: None.10 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Yearsis originally published on Insider Monkey. || 10 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Years According To ARK’s Cathie Wood: In this article we presented the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 5 years according to ARK's Cathie Wood. Click to skip ahead and see 5 Long-Term Stock Picks According To Cathie Wood . Having one of her best years in the history of professional money management, ARK Investment Management founder and CEO, Cathie Wood sees 20% returns after 'unbelievable' 2020. "Oh, it's been unbelievable!" said Cathie when asked about what it feels like to achieve such milestone in her career in an interview with Bloomberg . "ARK Investment Management is a registered investment adviser in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Founded by Cathie Wood, ARK's goal is to focus solely on disruptive innovation while adding new dimensions to research. ARK uses an approach that cuts across sectors, market capitalizations, and geographies," according to the description of ARK's official website. ARK focuses on large-scale investment opportunities in the public markets resulting from technological innovations centered around DNA sequencing , robotics, artificial intelligence , energy storage, and blockchain technology. "The coronavirus created tremendous number of problems and our portfolios are all about solving problems." Cathy stated. "Our investors have been rewarded for helping to solve some of the world's most profound problems." She added, talking about how she and her company made their investors earn despite the pandemic. Cathy was also asked if she is enjoying her current celebrity status and here's how she responded, "I am enjoying the celebrity(status). It's fun. I love what I'm doing. I love the team I'm working with, I love our research, I love bringing life to new ways of looking at the world, helping people understand how the world's going to change not only their investment portfolios but also in their own lives, their children's lives, their grandchildren's lives. Helping them understand how to move everyone to the right side of change and really benefit from the exponential growth trajectories that are just taking off now." Story continues Directly speaking, Cathy mentioned that, whenever things have gone this well for her, usually there's a correction waiting around the bend. She said that when this correction comes, she wants to be prepared, that she must protect the earnings on the table and to also prepare their investors for the possibility of acquiring 'some' losses and say, "Just keep some powder dry because what we're looking at here are long-term exponential growth trajectories." According to Cathy, no one can stop progress so people must learn to embrace it. "I just have to keep my eye on the prize." Cathy exclaimed, saying that we must always expect corrections and we must be prepared for corrections. Nothing is straight up in the investment world and we will always experience these corrections. For Cathy, sometimes investors must take a bit of their money off the table and keep some powder dry in order to somewhat protect their investments from getting burned by these pullbacks. Asked about being concerned for the consequences of having a bad year, Cathy responded confidently, " One bad year would not worry us . Our investment time horizon is five years ." She also emphasized that they have projections which they develop from the top-down approach, trying to understand how technologies are going to scale and also from the bottom-up approach, about how companies are going to embrace these new technologies and ride their coattails. "For the next five years, we believe that our returns will compound at an annual rate of something in the 20% range ." Cathy projected. Traditional equity returns have been in the seven to eight percent range over time and that is why they believe there's still a lot of room or runway ahead. She made Amazon as an example of the stock she bought in the early 2000s, where people derided her decision to buy because of the thought process back then that focused on the tech and telecom. She highlighted that their portfolios right now are filled with 'Amazons', like a seed that were planted in the tech and telecom bubble that has been gestating all this time and now are trying to break out to growth trends. "We expect more than a doubling in our portfolio over the next five years." Cathy stated with full confidence when asked about achieving double returns five years from now. She was also questioned about which of her current holdings will supply the biggest lift and so she answered, "Tesla is still in the running but I would have to say, the biggest upside surprises are going to come from genomic space." According to Cathy, that is because the convergence of DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene therapies are going to ' cure disease' . This convergence enables us to anticipate diseases and cure them potentially. A big surprise in Cathy's portfolio attribution is that the four biggest contributors to the S&P 500 namely, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook gave her only 20 points out of 600 points. Cathy acknowledged, "We're not saying they'll be bad stocks at all, in fact, they've been very good stocks and they were a part of our portfolios in the early days." She then emphasized that "But as they were scaling into the trillion-dollar category, we believe that our research should better focus on the next set of 'FANGs', and we actually think that the next 'FANGs' are in the genomic age. " That is why if you'll notice their flagship portfolio, the largest exposure is in healthcare . Cathy implied that their 'minimum' hurdle rate of return is 15% at a compound annual rate over the next 5 years and if their stocks lose the return expectation and drop below the 15% threshold, they would definitely move back towards some of their old FANGs because they would be treating those stocks as 'cash-like' instruments in relation to their strategy. She also stated that as the bull market extends, they move into more cash-like equities which are the less volatile stocks. Talking about bitcoin , Cathy and the ARK's position on this particular asset is currently worth 7% of their total equity. She said they are still optimistic about bitcoin despite being at $20 thousand, then down to $17 and even below $4 thousand earlier this year. They are still optimistic because they learned that bitcoin threw off unqualified income which is not illegal. "We are extremely bullish. Our confidence has gone up since 2017 because what we saw as it dropped from 20,000 to below 4,000, it actually got in well into the threes in 2019." she added. "Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the crypto ecosystem, which is very important. It's the flight to safety currency. Bitcoin's blockchain is the most secure of any other blockchain." 10 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Years According To ARK's Cathie Wood Cathy was also interviewed about the hate speeches she received from the investors who went short on Tesla when she tweeted a letter to Elon Musk in which she effectively put a bullish price target of $4000 to Tesla. When asked if she had any regrets (on her tweet to Elon), she replied, "Oh no, not at all. I didn't read the Twitter world of hate notes to me. We were standing up for what we thought was right and we also were astonished at the backlash." She also said that "He (Elon) is a provocative soul and he is brilliant! He's our renaissance man and what we should have done is keep our eye on the prize. We believe that Tesla will be in a poll position to dominate because of its advantages in artificial intelligence and the amount of data it has collected and the A.I. expertise that it has." According to her, Tesla's battery technology was already three to four years ' ahead ' of the competition. Tesla has 15 billion miles of real world driving data collected and the next closest is Google with 25 million. "I know we've been gratified to see how beautifully we're scaling and getting our message out which has helped our distributors." This is how Cathy responded when catechized about how she and her colleagues have harnessed social media as a tool for marketing and a tool to disseminate their ideas. ARK was founded last 2014, it only has 26 employees but it is handling $50 billion worth of assets. "What goes around, comes around. One of ARK's mission is to educate people or the average investor about how their lives were going to change and how they might capitalize on these changes in their portfolios. " she remarked. "There's a virtuous cycle at work here and there's also a bit of a viral network effect taking place. I do think it's happening and I'm thrilled to be a part of it." Cathie believes that there are five technology platforms that are changing the world today namely, artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, DNA sequencing, and blockchain. Asked if there could be a sixth, she responded, "We're looking closely at quantum computing ." She based it on her experience of meeting a lot of professors from around the world, focused on the next big thing which is quantum computing. It was always in view of at least 10 years, but now we have the first little baby, which is the rudimentary quantum computers. When the talk was shifted about why Cathie chose the actively managed ETF as the wrapper for her strategy, this is what she said, "From a research point of view, we were asking ourselves why is that happening? We didn't know anything about ETF's and so we looked at what an ETF is and understood that there were four reasons that ETF s were starting to take share." Based on Cathie's research, ETF's are (1) more transparent, (2) more liquid, (3) they are lower in cost compared to mutual funds, and (4) they didn't have hidden fees. "And so for those four reasons, I just asked the question, why don't we put our fund into an ETF? This sounds like a good deal." she stated. Everyone can start to wonder why Cathie didn't start a hedge fund because from a self-interested standpoint, she could definitely have been a lot richer than her current net worth. "I felt that the right thing to do was go where no one was and I've had good success over the years doing that." this is how she replied. Cathie was also inquired, "Why not extend your investment thesis to private markets and raise money to invest in venture capital and in growth equity?" According to Cathie, one of the reasons was the low-hanging fruit in the public equity markets. Innovation had been neglected in the public markets. It had become overvalued in the private markets. "We are evolving some strategies and we hope that next year, we'll be able to launch something." she stated. "I would love to be able to offer a public-private option that would be available for all retail investors right now." The ETF's of Cathie and ARK alone are generating an annualized run rate of $220 million in revenue. How profitable is this business? "It's very profitable now but believe me, the blood, sweat, and tears that we left in the early days-- It's a scalable model so we had to pay for the infrastructure in the early days and we were quite the loss-making company." said Cathie. She also stated that they were able to scale and have found the right talent in place. "I'm very happy to say that we are able to reward those who are making us happen." For Cathie, the Japanese market is a very interesting market. A lot of clients and investors basically tell their distributors what they want to see, and so Cathie and the ARK learned from them. ARK's fintech portfolio came out of Japan. In the US, they have a space exploration fund and also an SDG fund (Sustainable Development Goals) and these are being monitored closely by Cathie and her group. At the ending part, Cathie was asked, "If you had to build ARK all over again, what would you do differently?" She responded with a smile and said, "Oh! Probably we had to pivot because I told you I funded it for the 1st three to almost four years. Two and a half were there at 40 million dollars. We built it. They did not come and I would not have built a captive distribution at the time but I would have been more aggressive about finding a distribution partner sooner." In the perspective of Cathie Wood, the one thing every woman in finance should want generally is a great place to develop a good track record. "Building one's track record long enough usually is a ticket to more success. I always say, try and figure out a way to measure your success in a way that you know no one can take it away from you." She appended, "I have the highest regard for the industry. It is a heck of a lot of fun! It's extremely challenging. Solving the world's problem out there can't be anything more satisfying." So, Cathie Wood sounded more bullish about genomic stocks than Tesla, but you will be surprised when you find out where she put most of her money. Let's take a look at Cathie Wood's 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 5 years: 10. Proto Labs, Inc. (NYSE: PRLB ) Proto Labs, Inc. (PRLB) is a 3D printing company that returned more than 50% in 2020. Cathie Wood had a nearly 3.1 million share position at the end of September, making PRLB her 10th best stock to buy for the long-term. The position was worth $400 million at the end of September, but its current valuation is around $470 if left unchanged during the 4th quarter. Major hedge fund managers has been shunning the 3D technology company as the total number of bullish hedge fund positions stood at 16 at the end of September. The second biggest hedge fund equity position belonged to Motley Fool Asset Management at less than $6 million. 9. LendingTree, Inc. ( TREE ) TREE ranks 9th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for 5 years. Cathie Wood had $413 million invested in this stock at the end of September. Again she was by far the most bullish fund manager about this stock. The second largest equity holder of TREE in our database was quant hedge fund Two Sigma with a position valued at less than $13 million at the end of September. Bernzott Capital Advisors talked about TREE in its Q1 investor letter : "“LendingTree (TREE): $2.6 billion market cap – Based in Charlotte, NC, the company operates an online marketplace for all types of consumer loans, including mortgage, home equity, auto, personal, and credit cards. TREE also offers a marketplace for all types of insurance and deposits, matching over 700 lenders with millions of consumers. TREE is not a balance sheet lender itself, thus assumes zero credit risk. TREE enjoys a ~31% share in its core market, generates strong margins and is led by an owner-operator CEO who is the second largest shareholder with 13% of the stock worth ~$500 million. The company is in the early stages of penetrating a large mortgage market opportunity, with room to grow from its current less than 2% of annual mortgage originations. TREE should to benefit from the secular shift by domestic financial services firms shifting ad spending to online. We initiated and then added to the position during the quarter, with the stock trading at an attractive discount to fair value.” Cathie Wood probably believes that TREE will disrupt the mortgage origination market. 8. Teladoc Health, Inc. (NYSE: TDOC ) TDOC ranks 8th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for five years. Cathie Wood had $441 million invested in this telemedicine stock at the end of September. TDOC shares returned more than 130% in 2020. Telemedicine offers a convenient and lower cost alternative to medical office visits, and may even help lower overall medical expenses as more people take advantage of preventive annual doctor visits. However, Baron Discovery Fund thinks the stock might be overpriced at the moment. Here is what they said : “We sold our remaining investment in Teladoc Health, Inc., one of our most successful investments ever. Our view was that the company’s valuation felt a bit extended, and its market capitalization at over $19 billion was too large for the Fund to hold. Moreover, we believe that, on a pro-forma basis, the market cap will be around $40 billion after its recent bid to merge with Livongo Health, Inc., a transaction expected to be completed in the fourth quarter. We hold Teladoc’s management in the highest regard and admire the incredible company it has built over the last few years.” 7. 2U, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWOU ) TWOU ranks 7th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for five years. Cathie Wood had nearly $500 million invested in the stock at the end of September. TWOU shares returned 67% in 2020. Quant hedge fund D.E. Shaw and Greenvale Capital are among the large hedge fund holders of the stock but their positions pale in comparison to ARK Investment's. We previously highlighted 2U in our article about the best artificial intelligence stocks to buy and said the following: 2U is an education technology company providing front-end and back-end cloud-based SaaS technology services to Universities. In August 2U, Inc. and Columbia Engineering announced a “partnership to deliver the Columbia Artificial Intelligence Program”. The $2.7 billion market cap company aims to be a leader in the digital transformation of the higher education market. There were a ton of insider purchases in TWOU shares back in 2019 when the stock was trading at $15. Those insiders made more than 160% in less than 18 months. 6. Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z ) Zillow ranks 6th in our list of the 10 best stocks to buy and hold for the next 5 years. Cathie Wood had nearly $500 million invested in this stock and for the first time today she doesn't have the largest position in a stock. Karthik Sarma's SRS Management was the largest hedge fund holder of Zillow with a $871 million position at the end of September. Here is what Baron Partners Fund said about the stock recently: “Zillow Group, Inc. operates leading U.S. real estate sites, a mortgage marketplace, and the Zillow Offers home-buying business. Shares were up on strong second quarter results driven by record top-of-funnel metrics and a favorable newly public comp for the Offers business. In our view, Zillow is well positioned to penetrate the large online real estate advertising opportunity with substantial upside from Offers, which could grow the company’s addressable market in both houses to be bought/sold and leads provided to Premier Agents, as well as from Zillow Home Loans.” Click to continue reading and see the 5 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Years . Suggested Articles: 10 Best Growth Stocks To Buy Now 12 Best Large-Cap Biotech Stocks To Buy Now 10 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/insidermonkey Disclosure: None. 10 Best Stocks To Buy and Hold For 5 Years is originally published on Insider Monkey. || Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross: The podcaster and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses DeFi, income inequality and the opportunity for bitcoin in 2021.
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This episode is sponsored byNexo.io.
Related:The Unorthodox Trades That Will Drive Value in 2021, feat. Tony Greer
Download this episode
The wealth adviser and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses why the Federal Reserve continues to ignore its role in income inequality and what the bitcoin community can do to be a force for positive change.
Find our guest online:@TR401
See also:It’s Time for a Revolution in Financial Education, Feat. Tyrone Ross
Related:Why Bitcoin Is Bigger Than an Inflation Hedge, feat. Dan Tapiero
Formore episodesand free early access before our regular 3 p.m. Eastern time releases, subscribe withApple Podcasts,Spotify,Pocketcasts,Google Podcasts,Castbox,Stitcher,RadioPublica,iHeartRadioorRSS.
• Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross
• Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross || Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross: The podcaster and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses DeFi, income inequality and the opportunity for bitcoin in 2021.
Formore episodesand free early access before our regular 3 p.m. Eastern time releases, subscribe withApple Podcasts,Spotify,Pocketcasts,Google Podcasts,Castbox,Stitcher,RadioPublica,iHeartRadioorRSS.
This episode is sponsored byNexo.io.
Related:The Unorthodox Trades That Will Drive Value in 2021, feat. Tony Greer
Download this episode
The wealth adviser and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses why the Federal Reserve continues to ignore its role in income inequality and what the bitcoin community can do to be a force for positive change.
Find our guest online:@TR401
See also:It’s Time for a Revolution in Financial Education, Feat. Tyrone Ross
Related:Why Bitcoin Is Bigger Than an Inflation Hedge, feat. Dan Tapiero
Formore episodesand free early access before our regular 3 p.m. Eastern time releases, subscribe withApple Podcasts,Spotify,Pocketcasts,Google Podcasts,Castbox,Stitcher,RadioPublica,iHeartRadioorRSS.
• Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross
• Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross || Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross: The podcaster and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses DeFi, income inequality and the opportunity for bitcoin in 2021. For more episodes and free early access before our regular 3 p.m. Eastern time releases, subscribe with Apple Podcasts , Spotify , Pocketcasts , Google Podcasts , Castbox , Stitcher , RadioPublica , iHeartRadio or RSS . This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io . Related: The Unorthodox Trades That Will Drive Value in 2021, feat. Tony Greer Download this episode The wealth adviser and CEO of Onramp Invest discusses why the Federal Reserve continues to ignore its role in income inequality and what the bitcoin community can do to be a force for positive change. Find our guest online: @TR401 See also: Its Time for a Revolution in Financial Education, Feat. Tyrone Ross Related: Why Bitcoin Is Bigger Than an Inflation Hedge, feat. Dan Tapiero For more episodes and free early access before our regular 3 p.m. Eastern time releases, subscribe with Apple Podcasts , Spotify , Pocketcasts , Google Podcasts , Castbox , Stitcher , RadioPublica , iHeartRadio or RSS . Related Stories Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross Bitcoin Is Digital Social Justice, feat. Tyrone Ross || Stablecoins, ‘Unsung Heroes’ and Other Institutional Crypto Takeaways: It is clear that crypto is having its institutional moment. The investment decision is moving from speculation to allocation, and we are witnessing the maturation of crypto and digital asset investors in the process. In formalizing a dedicated digital asset investment strategy, institutional investors should assess the landscape thoughtfully with the goal of building an optimally constructed portfolio to achieve their desired investment objectives. Below, we summarize our top 10 takeaways from 2020 for institutional investors, based on our recent report “An Institutional Take on the 2020/2021 Digital Asset Market.”
This post is part of CoinDesk’s2020 Year in Review– a collection of op-eds, essays and interviews about the year in crypto and beyond. Dan Zuller, CFA, is a partner atVision Hill Group, an investment consultant and asset manager in digital assets.
1. Active management roars back.
Related:Crypto Long & Short: Looking Back on a Monumental Year
Following a challenging 2019 market in which concentration inbitcoin(largely viewed as the market’s beta, or its headline volatility indicator) prevailed over distinctive asset diversification, active management came roaring back in 2020. According toVisionTrackdata as of October 2020, crypto hedge funds generated net returns of +116% on average, outperforming bitcoin (+92%) by approximately 2,400 basis points (bps).
2. For investors, 2020 was the year of DeFi and asset selection.
DeFi stands for decentralized finance and can be best thought of as an emerging sector within the frontier digital asset market. Total value locked in DeFi contracts surged 25x to ~$15 billion as of the end of November, from ~$600 million in January. Investors that put capital to work in this thematic sector of digital assets generally outperformed bitcoin and the digital asset market beta in 2020.
3. Digital asset yields are sustainable, for now.
Related:This Is What Global Open-Source Money Seems Like
Digital assets offer highly attractive yields compared to traditional market instruments such as high-yield savings accounts. Will that continue? Growing demand from institutional counterparties and borrowers such as hedge funds, over-the-counter (OTC) desks, market makers and liquidity providers leads us to believe these yields are sustainable for the foreseeable future.
4. The remarkable rise, fall and rise again of crypto derivatives.
After a challenging 2018-2019 market regime, crypto derivatives have made a fascinating comeback in 2020. CME BTC daily futures volumes recently peaked at $2.2 billion at the end of November 2020 while Bakkt BTC daily futures volumes peaked at $178 million in September. “First a trickle and then a flood,” once the industry’s mantra back in 2018-2019, has proven true in 2020.
5. Crypto hedge funds are institutionalizing, but some more than others.
There are now a variety of beta- and alpha-focused hedge fund strategies rising to institutional “gold standards” in preparation for 2021. However, not all managers are evolving with the times. According to ourVisionTrackdatabase, approximately one in four managers have shuttered their funds since 2017 as a result of failed operations.
6. There’s liquid and there’s venture, but liquid venture is a tougher pitch.
The distinction between liquid hedge fund strategies (primarily liquid, short-term) and illiquid venture fund strategies (primarily illiquid, long-term) continues to be clear. However, the digital asset market continues to have hybrid “liquid venture” funds that attempt to capture the best of both the liquid and private worlds. While the opportunity set for such funds is certainly expanded, such strategies are not without their complexities and challenges.
7. Simplicity prevails: How the easy trades continue to win (and scale).
Throughout 2020, we continued to see investors prefer the simpler trades in the market. One of the most popular examples of this is the success of Grayscale’s investment trust products. Given the lack of a regulated bitcoin exchange-traded fund, investors have sought high quality, single asset vehicles, specifically bitcoin-only ones, to express their investment thesis in digital assets. There are also strong incentives for investors to maintain simplicity and capture the beta first when entering an emerging market. [Grayscale is a CoinDesk sister company.]
8. As the bull returns, beta competes against venture for capital.
Investors who allocated to venture funds as of Jan. 1, 2020, expecting a 3.0x return multiple over eight to 10 years would have achieved 90% of their return target and remained liquid in just the first 11 months of 2020 if they allocated to BTC instead. An allocation toETHwould have performed even better (4.7x return).
9. Stablecoins have become the market’s unsung heroes.
The rise of stablecoins boosted liquidity in the crypto market and enabled digital asset trading to become cheaper, faster and stablecoin-denominated. In 2020, the market capitalization of stablecoins has nearly quintupled from just under $5 million in 2019 to nearly $27 billion at the time of writing.
10. From speculators to allocators: witnessing crypto’s investor maturation.
While the crypto industry has witnessed some occasional institutional moments since 2018, none quite resulted in direct price appreciation the way 2020’s institutional movement did. Tudor Investment Corporation, Rothschild Investment Corp., Fidelity, JPMorgan, Raoul Pal, Stanley Druckenmiller, Citibank, Guggenheim, Alliance Bernstein, BlackRock, Square and MicroStrategy, to name a few, have enhanced bitcoin’s social proof this year.
We believe we are in the early phases of a 12- to 24-month bull market cycle in digital assets as part of a multi-decade long investment opportunity. Crypto investing is increasingly moving from speculation to allocation as high-quality institutional capital leads the current cycle. In 2021, it will be even more important to have a dedicated and intentional strategy to express the digital asset investment thesis.
There are now many different ways to invest into the growing digital asset class, ranging from single or multi-asset passive beta strategies to differentiated venture fund and hedge fund strategies. We expand on each of these in more detail below.
See also:Pantera’s Paul Veradittakit’s 2021 Predictions
Passive strategies can be accessed via single asset vehicles (e.g. BTC only) or index funds for multi-asset exposure. Reported assets under management (AUM) inVisionTrackis now $13.6 billion for passive beta strategies and expected to grow significantly in 2021.
We believe bitcoin will continue to be the first stop for many allocators who are new to digital assets. It is reasonable to assume that in order to build conviction in this asset class, allocators need to get comfortable with the general notion of how a blockchain works, and why its value proposition is unique relative to everything else in their investable universe (that may also come with longer and more established track records of success). In 2021, investors are also likely to expand their definition of beta to include ether in addition to bitcoin.
Venture funds in crypto generally focus on equity only, tokens only or equity and tokens across various stages from a structural perspective. We estimate dedicated crypto venture fund AUM to be in excess of $10 billion.
We believe we will see continued growth of dedicated crypto venture fund strategies into 2021. In addition to Fund II’s and Fund III’s, 2021 more focus is likely to turn to thematic differentiation (e.g. DeFi vs. infrastructure), structural differentiation (equity vs. tokens), stage differentiation (pre-seed, Series A, growth stage), and geographic differentiation (U.S., Asia, emerging markets, etc.).
At Vision Hill, we segment all crypto hedge funds into one of three strategy categories: fundamental, quantitative and opportunistic. There is currently $2.4 billion in dedicated crypto hedge fund AUM in VisionTrack.
We believe 2021 will be a breakout year for crypto hedge funds. With an expected bullish market regime, we expect distinctive (idiosyncratic) asset selection will present opportunities for differentiated and uncorrelated outperformance (alpha).
Investors should create a dedicated, thoughtful and comprehensive investment process for digital asset portfolio construction as they would with any other investment vertical such as equities, credit or real estate. This begins with understanding the overall opportunity set, categorizing the different types of investments, their risk and return profiles, investment horizons and durations, and liquidity. The next step is gathering the best data possible to make more informed and smarter investment decisions. The future is bright for digital assets.
• Stablecoins, ‘Unsung Heroes’ and Other Institutional Crypto Takeaways
• Stablecoins, ‘Unsung Heroes’ and Other Institutional Crypto Takeaways || Stablecoins, ‘Unsung Heroes’ and Other Institutional Crypto Takeaways: It is clear that crypto is having its institutional moment. The investment decision is moving from speculation to allocation, and we are witnessing the maturation of crypto and digital asset investors in the process. In formalizing a dedicated digital asset investment strategy, institutional investors should assess the landscape thoughtfully with the goal of building an optimally constructed portfolio to achieve their desired investment objectives. Below, we summarize our top 10 takeaways from 2020 for institutional investors, based on our recent report “ An Institutional Take on the 2020/2021 Digital Asset Market .” This post is part of CoinDesk’s 2020 Year in Review – a collection of op-eds, essays and interviews about the year in crypto and beyond. Dan Zuller, CFA, is a partner at Vision Hill Group , an investment consultant and asset manager in digital assets. 1. Active management roars back. Related: Crypto Long & Short: Looking Back on a Monumental Year Following a challenging 2019 market in which concentration in bitcoin (largely viewed as the market’s beta, or its headline volatility indicator) prevailed over distinctive asset diversification, active management came roaring back in 2020. According to VisionTrack data as of October 2020, crypto hedge funds generated net returns of +116% on average, outperforming bitcoin (+92%) by approximately 2,400 basis points (bps). 2. For investors, 2020 was the year of DeFi and asset selection. DeFi stands for decentralized finance and can be best thought of as an emerging sector within the frontier digital asset market. Total value locked in DeFi contracts surged 25x to ~$15 billion as of the end of November, from ~$600 million in January. Investors that put capital to work in this thematic sector of digital assets generally outperformed bitcoin and the digital asset market beta in 2020. 3. Digital asset yields are sustainable, for now. Related: This Is What Global Open-Source Money Seems Like Story continues Digital assets offer highly attractive yields compared to traditional market instruments such as high-yield savings accounts. Will that continue? Growing demand from institutional counterparties and borrowers such as hedge funds, over-the-counter (OTC) desks, market makers and liquidity providers leads us to believe these yields are sustainable for the foreseeable future. 4. The remarkable rise, fall and rise again of crypto derivatives. After a challenging 2018-2019 market regime, crypto derivatives have made a fascinating comeback in 2020. CME BTC daily futures volumes recently peaked at $2.2 billion at the end of November 2020 while Bakkt BTC daily futures volumes peaked at $178 million in September. “First a trickle and then a flood,” once the industry’s mantra back in 2018-2019, has proven true in 2020. 5. Crypto hedge funds are institutionalizing, but some more than others. There are now a variety of beta- and alpha-focused hedge fund strategies rising to institutional “gold standards” in preparation for 2021. However, not all managers are evolving with the times. According to our VisionTrack database, approximately one in four managers have shuttered their funds since 2017 as a result of failed operations. 6. There’s liquid and there’s venture, but liquid venture is a tougher pitch. The distinction between liquid hedge fund strategies (primarily liquid, short-term) and illiquid venture fund strategies (primarily illiquid, long-term) continues to be clear. However, the digital asset market continues to have hybrid “liquid venture” funds that attempt to capture the best of both the liquid and private worlds. While the opportunity set for such funds is certainly expanded, such strategies are not without their complexities and challenges. 7. Simplicity prevails: How the easy trades continue to win (and scale). Throughout 2020, we continued to see investors prefer the simpler trades in the market. One of the most popular examples of this is the success of Grayscale’s investment trust products. Given the lack of a regulated bitcoin exchange-traded fund, investors have sought high quality, single asset vehicles, specifically bitcoin-only ones, to express their investment thesis in digital assets. There are also strong incentives for investors to maintain simplicity and capture the beta first when entering an emerging market. [Grayscale is a CoinDesk sister company.] 8. As the bull returns, beta competes against venture for capital. Investors who allocated to venture funds as of Jan. 1, 2020, expecting a 3.0x return multiple over eight to 10 years would have achieved 90% of their return target and remained liquid in just the first 11 months of 2020 if they allocated to BTC instead. An allocation to ETH would have performed even better (4.7x return). 9. Stablecoins have become the market’s unsung heroes. The rise of stablecoins boosted liquidity in the crypto market and enabled digital asset trading to become cheaper, faster and stablecoin-denominated. In 2020, the market capitalization of stablecoins has nearly quintupled from just under $5 million in 2019 to nearly $27 billion at the time of writing. 10. From speculators to allocators: witnessing crypto’s investor maturation. While the crypto industry has witnessed some occasional institutional moments since 2018, none quite resulted in direct price appreciation the way 2020’s institutional movement did. Tudor Investment Corporation, Rothschild Investment Corp., Fidelity, JPMorgan, Raoul Pal, Stanley Druckenmiller, Citibank, Guggenheim, Alliance Bernstein, BlackRock, Square and MicroStrategy, to name a few, have enhanced bitcoin’s social proof this year. A 2021 look ahead We believe we are in the early phases of a 12- to 24-month bull market cycle in digital assets as part of a multi-decade long investment opportunity. Crypto investing is increasingly moving from speculation to allocation as high-quality institutional capital leads the current cycle. In 2021, it will be even more important to have a dedicated and intentional strategy to express the digital asset investment thesis. There are now many different ways to invest into the growing digital asset class, ranging from single or multi-asset passive beta strategies to differentiated venture fund and hedge fund strategies. We expand on each of these in more detail below. See also: Pantera’s Paul Veradittakit’s 2021 Predictions Beta Passive strategies can be accessed via single asset vehicles (e.g. BTC only) or index funds for multi-asset exposure. Reported assets under management (AUM) in VisionTrack is now $13.6 billion for passive beta strategies and expected to grow significantly in 2021. We believe bitcoin will continue to be the first stop for many allocators who are new to digital assets. It is reasonable to assume that in order to build conviction in this asset class, allocators need to get comfortable with the general notion of how a blockchain works, and why its value proposition is unique relative to everything else in their investable universe (that may also come with longer and more established track records of success). In 2021, investors are also likely to expand their definition of beta to include ether in addition to bitcoin. Venture Venture funds in crypto generally focus on equity only, tokens only or equity and tokens across various stages from a structural perspective. We estimate dedicated crypto venture fund AUM to be in excess of $10 billion. We believe we will see continued growth of dedicated crypto venture fund strategies into 2021. In addition to Fund II’s and Fund III’s, 2021 more focus is likely to turn to thematic differentiation (e.g. DeFi vs. infrastructure), structural differentiation (equity vs. tokens), stage differentiation (pre-seed, Series A, growth stage), and geographic differentiation (U.S., Asia, emerging markets, etc.). Hedge funds At Vision Hill, we segment all crypto hedge funds into one of three strategy categories: fundamental, quantitative and opportunistic. There is currently $2.4 billion in dedicated crypto hedge fund AUM in VisionTrack. We believe 2021 will be a breakout year for crypto hedge funds. With an expected bullish market regime, we expect distinctive (idiosyncratic) asset selection will present opportunities for differentiated and uncorrelated outperformance (alpha). Preparing for 2021 Investors should create a dedicated, thoughtful and comprehensive investment process for digital asset portfolio construction as they would with any other investment vertical such as equities, credit or real estate. This begins with understanding the overall opportunity set, categorizing the different types of investments, their risk and return profiles, investment horizons and durations, and liquidity. The next step is gathering the best data possible to make more informed and smarter investment decisions. The future is bright for digital assets. Related Stories Stablecoins, ‘Unsung Heroes’ and Other Institutional Crypto Takeaways Stablecoins, ‘Unsung Heroes’ and Other Institutional Crypto Takeaways || From Bitcoin to Asian tech stocks, these are the biggest winners and losers of the 2020 global markets: That kink in your neck? It might be from watching your portfolio this year whipsaw from precipitous lows to glorious highs in what seemed like a blink. But who could complain? In December, investors drove up stocks to a series of fresh all-time highs on all three major U.S. exchanges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both finished 2020 in the record books. According to LPL Research, the S&P 500 has just notched its best November-December run ever, rallying 14.3% in the final two months. (That was as of noon ET on Dec. 30; the benchmark climbed a further 0.45% through the year-end close on New Years Eve). The record run could be seen across the Atlantic, too, as Germanys Dax closed in record territory just after Christmas. And, in this past month Japans Nikkei hit a high last seen in the Super Nintendo days of the early 1990s. And yet all of that good news got overshadowed by Bitcoin, which has had the Santa Claus Rally t o end all Santa Claus rallies . Heres a look at the best- and worst-performing asset classes for 2020, and what that that performance might bode for the year to come. Stocks Its hard to forget those gut-churning days in Q1 when the S&P 500 plunged 32% from peak to nadir. But by August, much of that had been forgotten as the benchmark index rocketed back to record territory, helped by investor mania for tech stocks, plus trillions in fiscal stimulus measures and a lets-buy-everything Federal Reserve whose central motto has become: Lower for longer. That Dont fight the Fed message, in turn, triggered an unprecedented buying spree in all things tech that pushed the Nasdaq into a bull run for the record books; it finished 2020 up 43.6%. It has also pushed tech-heavy indexes in Seoul, Tokyo and Frankfurt to new highs. On the flip side, investors dumped their holdings in energy and finance, two sectors hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that followed. The S&P 500 Energy sector was among the worst performers of 2020, down 37.3%. The S&P 500 Financial sector, meanwhile, closed off 4.1%. (Alas, bank stocks have rebounded since early November when we got our first batches of good news on the COVID vaccine front, a real shot in the arm for value stocks.) Story continues As indexes go, Londons FTSE was one of the biggest duds of 2020, off 14.3%, underperforming nearly all major European bourses. Yes, Brexit uncertainty hit shares hard. But the heavy concentration of energy and finance stocks on the FTSE didnt help either. By any historical basis, tech stocks are expensive. But there are plenty of signs the big trends of digitization we saw in 2020not just the boom in e-commerce, but also the rise in virtual meetings and a shift to working from homeare here to stay. Dont be surprised though if much of those gains are already priced in. As BofA Securities equity analysts wrote in a recent investor note, our top two sectors are unapologetically cyclical and value-focused: financials and energy (which we double-upgrade from underweight). Theyre also long small-cap for 2021 and underweight staples, real estate and communications services. EV stocks had a heck of a year, none better than Tesla . Bulls sent Tesla shares into the stratosphere, up more than eight-fold in 2020. Commodities COVID completely walloped the oil market, sending crude to historic lows. In April, the price of a barrel of oil even went negative for the first time ever in a fluky moment where a glut of futures contracts chased nonexistent bidders. Panic selling aside, the collapse in commodity prices is understandable. When much of the global economy crashes into recession, commodity prices fall with it. But as factories reopen, those prices bounce back. And weve seen that with some commodities, at least. The big winners in commodities this year have been silver (up 47.7%) and copper (up 25.8%). Both are used extensively in industrial processes. They stand to gain further in 2021 as the global economy gets back on track. Top of the chart is Bitcoin, which nearly quadrupled in value in 2020. No, Bitcoin is not a commodity in the traditional sense of being a physical object, but its worth comparing the digital currencys bull run with that of gold. The shiny yellow stuff ended 2020 up 24.6%. But its been virtually flat since September, just as Bitcoin took off. And Bitcoins stellar December rally pushed the crypto currency to the brink of $30,000 by New Years Eve. So much for that seemingly overly bullish $20,000 Bitcoin call in November. The FX trade The dollar has had a rough year, posting its biggest annual loss since 2017. And, its likely to get worse in 2021. Not long ago, back in March, the greenback soared as equities fell. Thats the typical pattern. A strong dollar goes hand in hand with risk-off investing sentiment. As the global economy began to recover in Q2, however, and stocks began picking up, the dollar fell. And kept falling. None of this should have surprised investors. As Goldman Sachs wrote in a Dec. 18 investor note: We are revising down our forecasts for the US Dollar against several major crosses this week. The rationale for further depreciation remains the same: the Dollar is overvalued after a long stretch of US asset market outperformance, Fed rate cuts have eroded the currencys carry advantage, the central banks new average inflation targeting framework should keep (real and nominal) interest rates low for a number of years, and a recovering global economy should weigh on the safe haven Dollar through a variety of channels. A weak dollar creates all kinds of ripple effects around the world. Its great news for U.S. multinationals, lifting profits. And, a sustained cheap dollar should lift exports. A weak dollar is also a big boost for emerging markets. And, on cue, investors have been piling into emerging economies in recent months to take advantage of the relatively weak greenback FX gap. On the flip side, its not great news for Americas biggest trading partnersnamely, the Eurozone. As such, Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end 2021 price of one euro equaling $1.28. That would represent a further 4% slide in the greenback from the Dec. 30 EUR/USD FX price, mainly as investors continue to bail on the safe-haven dollar amid unprecedented levels of stimulus pumped into the U.S. economy. In fact, the dollars standing as the worlds global reserve currencya much watched measurefell to a level last seen in early 1996. A weak dollar also equates to low inflation, and thats good news for the consumer. And that should bring another steady tail wind to stocks in 2021. In other words, get ready for the whiplash. More must-read finance coverage from Fortune : When to expect $600 checks and $300 enhanced unemployment payments A brief history of Bitcoin bubbles From Bitcoin to Asian tech stocks, these are the biggest winners and losers of the 2020 global markets The biggest business scandals of 2020 Under Biden, expect more scrutiny of Big Tech and mergers This story was originally featured on Fortune.com || From Bitcoin to Asian tech stocks, these are the biggest winners and losers of the 2020 global markets: That kink in your neck? It might be from watching your portfolio this year whipsaw from precipitous lows to glorious highs in what seemed like a blink.
But who could complain? In December, investors drove up stocks to a series of fresh all-time highs on all three major U.S. exchanges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both finished 2020 in the record books. According to LPL Research, the S&P 500 has just notched its best November-December run ever, rallying 14.3% in the final two months. (That was as of noon ET on Dec. 30; the benchmark climbed a further 0.45% through the year-end close on New Year’s Eve).
The record run could be seen across the Atlantic, too, as Germany’s Dax closed in record territory just after Christmas. And, in this past month Japan’s Nikkei hit a high last seen in the Super Nintendo days of the early 1990s.
And yet all of that good news got overshadowed by Bitcoin, which has had the Santa Claus Rally to end all Santa Claus rallies.
Here’s a look at the best- and worst-performing asset classes for 2020, and what that that performance might bode for the year to come.
It’s hard to forget those gut-churning days in Q1 when the S&P 500 plunged 32% from peak to nadir. But by August, much of that had been forgotten as the benchmark index rocketed back to record territory, helped by investor mania for tech stocks, plus trillions in fiscal stimulus measures and a let’s-buy-everything Federal Reserve whose central motto has become: “Lower for longer.”
That “Don’t fight the Fed” message, in turn, triggered an unprecedented buying spree in all things tech that pushed the Nasdaq into a bull run for the record books; it finished 2020 up 43.6%. It has also pushed tech-heavy indexes in Seoul, Tokyo and Frankfurt to new highs.
On the flip side, investors dumped their holdings in energy and finance, two sectors hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that followed. The S&P 500 Energy sector was among the worst performers of 2020, down 37.3%. The S&P 500 Financial sector, meanwhile, closed off 4.1%. (Alas, bank stocks have rebounded since early November when we got our first batches of good news on the COVID vaccine front, a real shot in the arm for value stocks.)
As indexes go, London’s FTSE was one of the biggest duds of 2020, off 14.3%, underperforming nearly all major European bourses. Yes, Brexit uncertainty hit shares hard. But the heavy concentration of energy and finance stocks on the FTSE didn’t help either.
By any historical basis, tech stocks are expensive. But there are plenty of signs the big trends of digitization we saw in 2020—not just the boom in e-commerce, but also the rise in virtual meetings and a shift to working from home—are here to stay. Don’t be surprised though if much of those gains are already priced in.
As BofA Securities equity analysts wrote in a recent investor note, “our top two sectors are unapologetically cyclical and value-focused: financials and energy (which we double-upgrade from underweight).” They’re also long small-cap for 2021 and underweight staples, real estate and communications services.
EV stocks had a heck of a year,none better than Tesla. Bulls sentTeslashares into the stratosphere, up more than eight-fold in 2020.
COVID completely walloped the oil market, sending crude to historic lows. In April, the price of a barrel of oileven went negativefor the first time ever in a fluky moment where a glut of futures contracts chased nonexistent bidders.
Panic selling aside, the collapse in commodity prices is understandable. When much of the global economy crashes into recession, commodity prices fall with it.
But as factories reopen, those prices bounce back. And we’ve seen that with some commodities, at least.
The big winners in commodities this year have been silver (up 47.7%) and copper (up 25.8%). Both are used extensively in industrial processes. They stand to gain further in 2021 as the global economy gets back on track.
Top of the chart is Bitcoin, which nearly quadrupled in value in 2020. No, Bitcoin is not a commodity in the traditional sense of being a physical object, but it’s worth comparing the digital currency’s bull run with that of gold. The shiny yellow stuff ended 2020 up 24.6%. But it’s been virtually flat since September, just as Bitcoin took off. And Bitcoin’s stellar December rally pushed the crypto currency to the brink of $30,000 by New Year’s Eve. So much for that seemingly overly bullish$20,000 Bitcoin callin November.
The dollar has had a rough year, posting its biggest annual loss since 2017. And, it’s likely to get worse in 2021.
Not long ago, back in March, the greenback soared as equities fell. That’s the typical pattern. A strong dollar goes hand in hand with risk-off investing sentiment.
As the global economy began to recover in Q2, however, and stocks began picking up, the dollar fell. And kept falling. None of this should have surprised investors.
AsGoldman Sachswrote in a Dec. 18 investor note: “We are revising down our forecasts for the US Dollar against several major crosses this week. The rationale for further depreciation remains the same: the Dollar is overvalued after a long stretch of US asset market outperformance, Fed rate cuts have eroded the currency’s carry advantage, the central bank’s new average inflation targeting framework should keep (real and nominal) interest rates low for a number of years, and a recovering global economy should weigh on the ‘safe haven’ Dollar through a variety of channels.”
A weak dollar creates all kinds of ripple effects around the world. It’s great news for U.S. multinationals, lifting profits. And, a sustained cheap dollar should lift exports.
A weak dollar is also a big boost for emerging markets. And, on cue, investors have been piling into emerging economies in recent months to take advantage of the relatively weak greenback FX gap.
On the flip side, it’s not great news for America’s biggest trading partners—namely, the Eurozone. As such, Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end 2021 price of one euro equaling $1.28. That would represent a further 4% slide in the greenback from the Dec. 30 EUR/USD FX price, mainly as investors continue to bail on the safe-haven dollar amid unprecedented levels of stimulus pumped into the U.S. economy. In fact, the dollar’s standing as the world’s global reserve currency—a much watched measure—fell to a level last seen in early 1996.
A weak dollar also equates to low inflation, and that’s good news for the consumer. And that should bring another steady tail wind to stocks in 2021.
In other words, get ready for the whiplash.
• When to expect$600 checks and $300 enhanced unemployment payments
• A brief history ofBitcoin bubbles
• From Bitcoin to Asian tech stocks, these arethe biggest winners and losers of the 2020 global markets
• The biggestbusiness scandalsof 2020
• Under Biden, expectmore scrutiny of Big Tech and mergers
This story was originally featured onFortune.com || From Bitcoin to Asian tech stocks, these are the biggest winners and losers of the 2020 global markets: That kink in your neck? It might be from watching your portfolio this year whipsaw from precipitous lows to glorious highs in what seemed like a blink.
But who could complain? In December, investors drove up stocks to a series of fresh all-time highs on all three major U.S. exchanges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both finished 2020 in the record books. According to LPL Research, the S&P 500 has just notched its best November-December run ever, rallying 14.3% in the final two months. (That was as of noon ET on Dec. 30; the benchmark climbed a further 0.45% through the year-end close on New Year’s Eve).
The record run could be seen across the Atlantic, too, as Germany’s Dax closed in record territory just after Christmas. And, in this past month Japan’s Nikkei hit a high last seen in the Super Nintendo days of the early 1990s.
And yet all of that good news got overshadowed by Bitcoin, which has had the Santa Claus Rally to end all Santa Claus rallies.
Here’s a look at the best- and worst-performing asset classes for 2020, and what that that performance might bode for the year to come.
It’s hard to forget those gut-churning days in Q1 when the S&P 500 plunged 32% from peak to nadir. But by August, much of that had been forgotten as the benchmark index rocketed back to record territory, helped by investor mania for tech stocks, plus trillions in fiscal stimulus measures and a let’s-buy-everything Federal Reserve whose central motto has become: “Lower for longer.”
That “Don’t fight the Fed” message, in turn, triggered an unprecedented buying spree in all things tech that pushed the Nasdaq into a bull run for the record books; it finished 2020 up 43.6%. It has also pushed tech-heavy indexes in Seoul, Tokyo and Frankfurt to new highs.
On the flip side, investors dumped their holdings in energy and finance, two sectors hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that followed. The S&P 500 Energy sector was among the worst performers of 2020, down 37.3%. The S&P 500 Financial sector, meanwhile, closed off 4.1%. (Alas, bank stocks have rebounded since early November when we got our first batches of good news on the COVID vaccine front, a real shot in the arm for value stocks.)
As indexes go, London’s FTSE was one of the biggest duds of 2020, off 14.3%, underperforming nearly all major European bourses. Yes, Brexit uncertainty hit shares hard. But the heavy concentration of energy and finance stocks on the FTSE didn’t help either.
By any historical basis, tech stocks are expensive. But there are plenty of signs the big trends of digitization we saw in 2020—not just the boom in e-commerce, but also the rise in virtual meetings and a shift to working from home—are here to stay. Don’t be surprised though if much of those gains are already priced in.
As BofA Securities equity analysts wrote in a recent investor note, “our top two sectors are unapologetically cyclical and value-focused: financials and energy (which we double-upgrade from underweight).” They’re also long small-cap for 2021 and underweight staples, real estate and communications services.
EV stocks had a heck of a year,none better than Tesla. Bulls sentTeslashares into the stratosphere, up more than eight-fold in 2020.
COVID completely walloped the oil market, sending crude to historic lows. In April, the price of a barrel of oileven went negativefor the first time ever in a fluky moment where a glut of futures contracts chased nonexistent bidders.
Panic selling aside, the collapse in commodity prices is understandable. When much of the global economy crashes into recession, commodity prices fall with it.
But as factories reopen, those prices bounce back. And we’ve seen that with some commodities, at least.
The big winners in commodities this year have been silver (up 47.7%) and copper (up 25.8%). Both are used extensively in industrial processes. They stand to gain further in 2021 as the global economy gets back on track.
Top of the chart is Bitcoin, which nearly quadrupled in value in 2020. No, Bitcoin is not a commodity in the traditional sense of being a physical object, but it’s worth comparing the digital currency’s bull run with that of gold. The shiny yellow stuff ended 2020 up 24.6%. But it’s been virtually flat since September, just as Bitcoin took off. And Bitcoin’s stellar December rally pushed the crypto currency to the brink of $30,000 by New Year’s Eve. So much for that seemingly overly bullish$20,000 Bitcoin callin November.
The dollar has had a rough year, posting its biggest annual loss since 2017. And, it’s likely to get worse in 2021.
Not long ago, back in March, the greenback soared as equities fell. That’s the typical pattern. A strong dollar goes hand in hand with risk-off investing sentiment.
As the global economy began to recover in Q2, however, and stocks began picking up, the dollar fell. And kept falling. None of this should have surprised investors.
AsGoldman Sachswrote in a Dec. 18 investor note: “We are revising down our forecasts for the US Dollar against several major crosses this week. The rationale for further depreciation remains the same: the Dollar is overvalued after a long stretch of US asset market outperformance, Fed rate cuts have eroded the currency’s carry advantage, the central bank’s new average inflation targeting framework should keep (real and nominal) interest rates low for a number of years, and a recovering global economy should weigh on the ‘safe haven’ Dollar through a variety of channels.”
A weak dollar creates all kinds of ripple effects around the world. It’s great news for U.S. multinationals, lifting profits. And, a sustained cheap dollar should lift exports.
A weak dollar is also a big boost for emerging markets. And, on cue, investors have been piling into emerging economies in recent months to take advantage of the relatively weak greenback FX gap.
On the flip side, it’s not great news for America’s biggest trading partners—namely, the Eurozone. As such, Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end 2021 price of one euro equaling $1.28. That would represent a further 4% slide in the greenback from the Dec. 30 EUR/USD FX price, mainly as investors continue to bail on the safe-haven dollar amid unprecedented levels of stimulus pumped into the U.S. economy. In fact, the dollar’s standing as the world’s global reserve currency—a much watched measure—fell to a level last seen in early 1996.
A weak dollar also equates to low inflation, and that’s good news for the consumer. And that should bring another steady tail wind to stocks in 2021.
In other words, get ready for the whiplash.
• When to expect$600 checks and $300 enhanced unemployment payments
• A brief history ofBitcoin bubbles
• From Bitcoin to Asian tech stocks, these arethe biggest winners and losers of the 2020 global markets
• The biggestbusiness scandalsof 2020
• Under Biden, expectmore scrutiny of Big Tech and mergers
This story was originally featured onFortune.com || Gold Price Forecast: Market Risks and Why 2021 Could be Worse: I’ve grown a little bearish over the near-term, given the excessive bullishness I see in options buying and retail trading. Highflyers likeTeslaandBitcoinare not driven by fundamentals, but by speculation and excess liquidity. This extreme risk-taking leaves the markets vulnerable to a sharp correction, in my opinion.
It seems most of the “good news” is already baked into the markets. Governments passed more stimulus, and vaccines are making their way across the globe. Stocks are at new all-time highs and there’s talk about a repeat of the roaring 20s. However, what’s happening in the real economy is entirely different. I don’t think we will understand the depth of this divide until next year. Below are some “potential hazards” I see going into next year.
According to a recent survey by theUS Census Bureau, of the estimated 17-million adults who are not current on their rent or mortgage payments, 33% could face eviction or foreclosure in the coming months.
(Source: visualcapitalist.com)
Eventually, moratoriums will be lifted, and people will need to start paying rent/mortgages. By the end of next year, I expect to see foreclosures popping up in some cities. Increased housing inventory could lead to lower prices and perhaps a housing glut. Rural housing should do better as people migrate out of cities to safer and more spacious arrangements.
How many restaurants, shops, malls, hotels, etc., won’t reopen in 2021? How many office buildings will remain vacant as employees work from home? How many commercial leases won’t be renewed? How many tenants walked away from their facility/business, never to return? Eventually, this could lead to a massive restructuring of commercial assets and could take years to unwind.
The long-term tax outlook for major cities is bleak. As employees work from home, they will no longer commute into the city. Tax revenues could plunge as companies and residents flee high tax states. Municipalities will be forced to raise taxes or slash services (probably both). Consequently, the exodus from states like California to low tax states like Texas will only make matters worse.
How many of the struggles mentioned above will result in bankruptcies and defaults? Hard to say, but I believe it will be significant. Going into the crisis, the personal savings rate was low. Millions of Americans didn’t have enough savings for even 3-months of expenses. When stimulus and employment benefits run out, I think there will be a reckoning, and we won’t know how bad until next year.
Currently, the markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery. I am less optimistic for the reasons described throughout this report. One scenario I am considering is a K-shaped recovery. This occurs when people with assets (own stocks and real estate) get wealthier through asset inflation, while those without assets (the have-nots) struggle to find employment, lose skills, and become permanently unemployed. As a result, the wealth-gap widens and produces increased social and civil unrest.
A few weeks ago, SolarWinds – a major US information technology firm, was the subject of a cyberattack that spread to its clients, including the US government. Foreign hackers used it to spy on private companies like cybersecurity firm FireEye and other Government agencies (Homeland Security and Treasury Department). It was the largest cyber-attack in US history, according to experts.
The combination of supercomputers and artificial intelligence makes cyber-attacks a threat like never before. No longer is it a single hacker in a basement trying to breach a firewall. Today, supercomputers are doing the hacking – they don’t need to sleep, they don’t eat, and they don’t get paid. They work 24-hours a day, relentlessly probing systems for weakness.
An attack on the power system, electrical grid, oil refineries, etc., could cripple utilities and infrastructure. If the payment system goes down, no one would be able to use credit or debit cards. For that reason alone, it’s probably wise to have some cash on hand to pay for essentials in the event of an outage.
There is a lot of hope riding on the effectiveness of these vaccines. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are reported to be about 95% effective. What if, for some reason, they aren’t?
We’ve had some very smart people working on the flu vaccines for over 20-years. On average, the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective, and some years just 40%. To create and distribute a new vaccine that is 95% effective…in less than 12-months would be game-changing if it works. And perhaps that’s what this is, a major scientific breakthrough, I don’t know. But, until I see long-term data supporting this, I remain skeptical.
In summary, theglobal economyhas recovered significantly from the collapse. The stimulus provided by governments was massive, but it is wearing off. If the vaccines prove effective and the economy reopens, we could see above-average growth next year. However, there are significant hurdles to overcome. If the vaccines are less effective and the lockdowns remain, I believe we are at risk of a double-dip recession.
Sentiment turned positive for precious metals in 2020 after the global pandemic. Fear and uncertainty will remain for the next several years. Governments are printing staggering amounts of money, and this will ultimately lead to inflation. Gold will benefit as currencies are devalued. Precious metals and commodities are entering a bull market that could last over a decade, in my opinion.
The only way I see gold NOT doing well in 2021 is if the vaccines prove 95% effective (as claimed), reach wide-spread adoption (at record pace), and completely eradicate the coronavirus. I think the odds of that happening are pretty low.
The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 97. I’m still looking for a finish above 100 to establish a cycle breakout.
-US DOLLAR- As I mentioned in the recentdollar update: I think prices are experiencing a meaningful devaluation. The trend is overdue for a bounce, but prices keep pushing lower. The final area of support arrives at the 2018 low of 88.15. If that level fails, I believe the USD could collapse to 80 by April/May 2021.
-GOLD- The 6-month cycle in gold likely bottomed at $1767.20 in November. Prices are climbing the “wall of worry,” and I expect a breakout above the intermediate trendline within the next 1 to 3-weeks. The trigger event to push gold through the trendline could arrive any day. The minimum target on a breakout is $2300 for the next leg higher.
Thanks for a great 2020 and happy New Year!
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out oureconomic calendar.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. He posts daily updates to Premium Members. For more information, please visithere.
Thisarticlewas originally posted on FX Empire
• Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Fill Gap
• European Equities: A Month in Review – December 2020
• USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – 102.886 is Trigger Point for Acceleration to Downside
• S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast: Stocks Continue to Reach All-Time Highs
• Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Quiet Heading Into 2021
• Gold Price Forecast: Market Risks and Why 2021 Could be Worse || Gold Price Forecast: Market Risks and Why 2021 Could be Worse: I’ve grown a little bearish over the near-term, given the excessive bullishness I see in options buying and retail trading. Highflyers like Tesla and Bitcoin are not driven by fundamentals, but by speculation and excess liquidity. This extreme risk-taking leaves the markets vulnerable to a sharp correction, in my opinion. It seems most of the “good news” is already baked into the markets. Governments passed more stimulus, and vaccines are making their way across the globe. Stocks are at new all-time highs and there’s talk about a repeat of the roaring 20s. However, what’s happening in the real economy is entirely different. I don’t think we will understand the depth of this divide until next year. Below are some “potential hazards” I see going into next year. EVICTIONS AND FORECLOSURES According to a recent survey by the US Census Bureau , of the estimated 17-million adults who are not current on their rent or mortgage payments, 33% could face eviction or foreclosure in the coming months. (Source: visualcapitalist.com) Eventually, moratoriums will be lifted, and people will need to start paying rent/mortgages. By the end of next year, I expect to see foreclosures popping up in some cities. Increased housing inventory could lead to lower prices and perhaps a housing glut. Rural housing should do better as people migrate out of cities to safer and more spacious arrangements. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE How many restaurants, shops, malls, hotels, etc., won’t reopen in 2021? How many office buildings will remain vacant as employees work from home? How many commercial leases won’t be renewed? How many tenants walked away from their facility/business, never to return? Eventually, this could lead to a massive restructuring of commercial assets and could take years to unwind. LOST TAX REVENUE The long-term tax outlook for major cities is bleak. As employees work from home, they will no longer commute into the city. Tax revenues could plunge as companies and residents flee high tax states. Municipalities will be forced to raise taxes or slash services (probably both). Consequently, the exodus from states like California to low tax states like Texas will only make matters worse. Story continues BANKRUPTCIES AND DEFAULTS How many of the struggles mentioned above will result in bankruptcies and defaults? Hard to say, but I believe it will be significant. Going into the crisis, the personal savings rate was low. Millions of Americans didn’t have enough savings for even 3-months of expenses. When stimulus and employment benefits run out, I think there will be a reckoning, and we won’t know how bad until next year. K-SHAPE RECOVERY Currently, the markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery. I am less optimistic for the reasons described throughout this report. One scenario I am considering is a K-shaped recovery. This occurs when people with assets (own stocks and real estate) get wealthier through asset inflation, while those without assets (the have-nots) struggle to find employment, lose skills, and become permanently unemployed. As a result, the wealth-gap widens and produces increased social and civil unrest. CYBER ATTACKS A few weeks ago, SolarWinds – a major US information technology firm, was the subject of a cyberattack that spread to its clients, including the US government. Foreign hackers used it to spy on private companies like cybersecurity firm FireEye and other Government agencies (Homeland Security and Treasury Department). It was the largest cyber-attack in US history, according to experts. The combination of supercomputers and artificial intelligence makes cyber-attacks a threat like never before. No longer is it a single hacker in a basement trying to breach a firewall. Today, supercomputers are doing the hacking – they don’t need to sleep, they don’t eat, and they don’t get paid. They work 24-hours a day, relentlessly probing systems for weakness. An attack on the power system, electrical grid, oil refineries, etc., could cripple utilities and infrastructure. If the payment system goes down, no one would be able to use credit or debit cards. For that reason alone, it’s probably wise to have some cash on hand to pay for essentials in the event of an outage. VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS There is a lot of hope riding on the effectiveness of these vaccines. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are reported to be about 95% effective. What if, for some reason, they aren’t? We’ve had some very smart people working on the flu vaccines for over 20-years. On average, the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective, and some years just 40%. To create and distribute a new vaccine that is 95% effective…in less than 12-months would be game-changing if it works. And perhaps that’s what this is, a major scientific breakthrough, I don’t know. But, until I see long-term data supporting this, I remain skeptical. In summary, the global economy has recovered significantly from the collapse. The stimulus provided by governments was massive, but it is wearing off. If the vaccines prove effective and the economy reopens, we could see above-average growth next year. However, there are significant hurdles to overcome. If the vaccines are less effective and the lockdowns remain, I believe we are at risk of a double-dip recession. GOLD OUTLOOK Sentiment turned positive for precious metals in 2020 after the global pandemic. Fear and uncertainty will remain for the next several years. Governments are printing staggering amounts of money, and this will ultimately lead to inflation. Gold will benefit as currencies are devalued. Precious metals and commodities are entering a bull market that could last over a decade, in my opinion. The only way I see gold NOT doing well in 2021 is if the vaccines prove 95% effective (as claimed), reach wide-spread adoption (at record pace), and completely eradicate the coronavirus. I think the odds of that happening are pretty low. The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 97. I’m still looking for a finish above 100 to establish a cycle breakout. -US DOLLAR- As I mentioned in the recent dollar update : I think prices are experiencing a meaningful devaluation. The trend is overdue for a bounce, but prices keep pushing lower. The final area of support arrives at the 2018 low of 88.15. If that level fails, I believe the USD could collapse to 80 by April/May 2021. -GOLD- The 6-month cycle in gold likely bottomed at $1767.20 in November. Prices are climbing the “wall of worry,” and I expect a breakout above the intermediate trendline within the next 1 to 3-weeks. The trigger event to push gold through the trendline could arrive any day. The minimum target on a breakout is $2300 for the next leg higher. Thanks for a great 2020 and happy New Year! For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar . AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. He posts daily updates to Premium Members. For more information, please visit here . This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Fill Gap European Equities: A Month in Review – December 2020 USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – 102.886 is Trigger Point for Acceleration to Downside S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast: Stocks Continue to Reach All-Time Highs Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Quiet Heading Into 2021 Gold Price Forecast: Market Risks and Why 2021 Could be Worse || The Crypto Daily – The Movers and Shakers – January 1st, 2021: Bitcoin , BTC to USD, rose by 0.18% on Thursday. Following a 5.74% rally on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $28,938.5. It was a bullish start to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $29,286.0 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the first major resistance level at $29,467, Bitcoin slid to an early afternoon intraday low $27,557.0. The pullback saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $27,802 before finding support. Late in the day, Bitcoin briefly revisited $29,150 levels before falling back to end the day at sub-$29,000 levels. The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest breakthrough to $29,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $13,659 to form a near-term bearish trend. The Rest of the Pack Across the rest of the majors, it was another mixed day on Thursday. Polkadot surged 27.85% to lead the way, with Ripple’s XRP (+3.82%) also joining Bitcoin in the green. It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however. Litecoin led the way down, sliding by 4.37%. Binance Coin (-1.78%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-2.14%), Crypto.com Coin (-1.54%), and Ethereum (-2.02%) also struggled. Cardano’s ADA (-1.03%) and Chainlink (-0.07%) saw relatively modest losses on the day. In the current week, the crypto total market cap fell to a Tuesday low $678.76bn before rising to an early Friday high $776.82bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $770.69bn. Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 69.13% before rising to a Thursday high 71.55%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 71.01. This Morning At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.38% to $29,388.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $28,716.0 before rising to a new swing hi $29,488.0. Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on. Elsewhere, it was another mixed start to the day. Bitcoin Cash SV and Polkadot were down by 0.50% and by 3.53% to buck the trend early on. Story continues It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors. At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 6.39% to lead the way. For the Bitcoin Day Ahead Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $28,594 to bring the first major resistance level at $29,639 back into play. Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $29,488.0. Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $30,000 would likely cap any upside. In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $30,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $30,322. Failure to avoid a fall through the $28,594 pivot would bring the first major support level at $27,902 into play. Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$27,500 levels. The second major support level sits at $26,865. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Quiet Last Day of The Year NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Closing Price Reversal Top May Be Indicating Momentum Shift AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Nearest Support .7649, Next Upside Target .7812 GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – The British Pound Looking to Break Out Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but fall 50% for the Year Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Quiet Heading Into 2021 || The Crypto Daily – The Movers and Shakers – January 1st, 2021: Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.18% on Thursday. Following a 5.74% rally on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $28,938.5.
It was a bullish start to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $29,286.0 before hitting reverse.
Falling short of the first major resistance level at $29,467, Bitcoin slid to an early afternoon intraday low $27,557.0.
The pullback saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $27,802 before finding support.
Late in the day, Bitcoin briefly revisited $29,150 levels before falling back to end the day at sub-$29,000 levels.
The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest breakthrough to $29,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $13,659 to form a near-term bearish trend.
Across the rest of the majors, it was another mixed day on Thursday.
Polkadot surged 27.85% to lead the way, withRipple’s XRP(+3.82%) also joining Bitcoin in the green.
It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.
Litecoinled the way down, sliding by 4.37%.
Binance Coin(-1.78%),Bitcoin Cash SV(-2.14%),Crypto.com Coin(-1.54%), andEthereum(-2.02%) also struggled.
Cardano’s ADA(-1.03%) andChainlink(-0.07%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.
In the current week, the crypto total market cap fell to a Tuesday low $678.76bn before rising to an early Friday high $776.82bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $770.69bn.
Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 69.13% before rising to a Thursday high 71.55%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 71.01.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.38% to $29,388.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $28,716.0 before rising to a new swing hi $29,488.0.
Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.
Elsewhere, it was another mixed start to the day.
Bitcoin Cash SV and Polkadot were down by 0.50% and by 3.53% to buck the trend early on.
It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors.
At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 6.39% to lead the way.
Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $28,594 to bring the first major resistance level at $29,639 back into play.
Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $29,488.0.
Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $30,000 would likely cap any upside.
In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $30,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $30,322.
Failure to avoid a fall through the $28,594 pivot would bring the first major support level at $27,902 into play.
Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$27,500 levels. The second major support level sits at $26,865.
Thisarticlewas originally posted on FX Empire
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• Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but fall 50% for the Year
• Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Quiet Heading Into 2021 || Bitcoin Approaching $30k As Crypto Market Booms Heading Into 2021: As the year draws to a close, not only is the U.S. stock market approaching record highs, but a touted alternative to the existing financial system is also booming. Bitcoin is now trading over $29,000 per single coin, up more than 24% in the last seven days alone. Its blown past its previous high of $20,000 and is likely to top the $30,000 mark by the end of the weekend if it keeps trending in its current direction. More from Deadline Mutual Funds, ETFs, Bitcoin Showed Strong Gains In 2020 Donald Trump's Campaign Website Hacked And Defaced Facebook Reveals Launch Plans For Libra, Its Crypto Answer To Bitcoin Bitcoin is a digital currency that is created by mining a blockchain, which rewards users who solve complex equations. Although some liken it to the tulip craze and other speculative investments, it has attracted numerous world class investors and financial institutions, particularly in the last six months. Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever exist in the complex system, making it a finite resource. The Bitcoin boom is a tide that is lifting other boats. Such alt-coins as ethereums Ether (now at $745), and Litecoin ($135) are also at or near record levels, boosting the overall markets. Other coins are also on the rise, making for a red-hot market heading into 2021. The only down note is found in the third-largest digital currency by market capitalization. The Securities and Exchange Commission has sued Ripple Labs, the company that issues XRP. The complaint charges XRPs backers with conducting an unlawful issuance of securities and personally profiting from the endeavor. As a result, the price has crashed and many crypto exchanges have stopped trading in it. But overall, a robust cryptocurrency market means good things for new entertainment start-ups, as investors that are flush with extra cash as their cryptos rise are more likely to back disruptive new companies. Best of Deadline U.S. Covid-19 Update: Nation Hits 20M Cases By Start Of 2021, With More than 346,000 Deaths Coronavirus: Movies That Have Halted Or Delayed Production Amid Outbreak Hong Kong Filmart Postponed Due To Coronavirus Fears; Event Moves Two Weeks Before Toronto Sign up for Deadline's Newsletter . For the latest news, follow us on Facebook , Twitter , and Instagram . || Bitcoin Approaching $30k As Crypto Market Booms Heading Into 2021: As the year draws to a close, not only is the U.S. stock market approaching record highs, but a touted alternative to the existing financial system is also booming. Bitcoin is now trading over $29,000 per single coin, up more than 24% in the last seven days alone. Its blown past its previous high of $20,000 and is likely to top the $30,000 mark by the end of the weekend if it keeps trending in its current direction. More from Deadline Mutual Funds, ETFs, Bitcoin Showed Strong Gains In 2020 Donald Trump's Campaign Website Hacked And Defaced Facebook Reveals Launch Plans For Libra, Its Crypto Answer To Bitcoin Bitcoin is a digital currency that is created by mining a blockchain, which rewards users who solve complex equations. Although some liken it to the tulip craze and other speculative investments, it has attracted numerous world class investors and financial institutions, particularly in the last six months. Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever exist in the complex system, making it a finite resource. The Bitcoin boom is a tide that is lifting other boats. Such alt-coins as ethereums Ether (now at $745), and Litecoin ($135) are also at or near record levels, boosting the overall markets. Other coins are also on the rise, making for a red-hot market heading into 2021. The only down note is found in the third-largest digital currency by market capitalization. The Securities and Exchange Commission has sued Ripple Labs, the company that issues XRP. The complaint charges XRPs backers with conducting an unlawful issuance of securities and personally profiting from the endeavor. As a result, the price has crashed and many crypto exchanges have stopped trading in it. But overall, a robust cryptocurrency market means good things for new entertainment start-ups, as investors that are flush with extra cash as their cryptos rise are more likely to back disruptive new companies. Best of Deadline U.S. Covid-19 Update: Nation Hits 20M Cases By Start Of 2021, With More than 346,000 Deaths Coronavirus: Movies That Have Halted Or Delayed Production Amid Outbreak Hong Kong Filmart Postponed Due To Coronavirus Fears; Event Moves Two Weeks Before Toronto Sign up for Deadline's Newsletter . For the latest news, follow us on Facebook , Twitter , and Instagram . || Bitcoin Approaching $30k As Crypto Market Booms Heading Into 2021: As the year draws to a close, not only is the U.S. stock market approaching record highs, but a touted alternative to the existing financial system is also booming. Bitcoin is now trading over $29,000 per single coin, up more than 24% in the last seven days alone. Its blown past its previous high of $20,000 and is likely to top the $30,000 mark by the end of the weekend if it keeps trending in its current direction. More from Deadline Mutual Funds, ETFs, Bitcoin Showed Strong Gains In 2020 Donald Trump's Campaign Website Hacked And Defaced Facebook Reveals Launch Plans For Libra, Its Crypto Answer To Bitcoin Bitcoin is a digital currency that is created by mining a blockchain, which rewards users who solve complex equations. Although some liken it to the tulip craze and other speculative investments, it has attracted numerous world class investors and financial institutions, particularly in the last six months. Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever exist in the complex system, making it a finite resource. The Bitcoin boom is a tide that is lifting other boats. Such alt-coins as ethereums Ether (now at $745), and Litecoin ($135) are also at or near record levels, boosting the overall markets. Other coins are also on the rise, making for a red-hot market heading into 2021. The only down note is found in the third-largest digital currency by market capitalization. The Securities and Exchange Commission has sued Ripple Labs, the company that issues XRP. The complaint charges XRPs backers with conducting an unlawful issuance of securities and personally profiting from the endeavor. As a result, the price has crashed and many crypto exchanges have stopped trading in it. But overall, a robust cryptocurrency market means good things for new entertainment start-ups, as investors that are flush with extra cash as their cryptos rise are more likely to back disruptive new companies. Best of Deadline U.S. Covid-19 Update: Nation Hits 20M Cases By Start Of 2021, With More than 346,000 Deaths Coronavirus: Movies That Have Halted Or Delayed Production Amid Outbreak Hong Kong Filmart Postponed Due To Coronavirus Fears; Event Moves Two Weeks Before Toronto Sign up for Deadline's Newsletter . For the latest news, follow us on Facebook , Twitter , and Instagram . || Bitcoin touches record above $29,000, extending 2020 rally: By John McCrank
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The price of Bitcoin topped $29,000 on Thursday for the first time, with the digital currency almost quadrupling in value this year amid heightened interest from investors big and small alike.
The world's most popular cryptocurrency touched $29,300 before pulling back, most recently down 0.67% at $28,774.36. It has surged by nearly half since breaking $20,000 for the first time on Dec. 16.
Bitcoin's potential for quick gains, as well as expectations it could become a mainstream payment method, has attracted demand from larger U.S. investors, as well as from traders who normally stick to equities.
"You can buy a stock like Amazon, you can buy a stock like Apple, and you know what you got," said Dennis Dick, a proprietary trader at Bright Trading LLC. "Bitcoin you really just have digits on a screen and you're really hoping that the guy behind you sees it as being worth more than what you just paid for it, so it's a purely speculative view," he said.
Still, intrigued by the story behind bitcoin and the traction it was getting with institutional investors, he put 1% of his net worth into a bitcoin fund around five weeks ago, which has doubled in value since then, and he sold half on Thursday.
"When you double your money within five weeks, if you sell half of it, I figure now you’re playing with the house's money," he said.
Recent gains have taken bitcoin's market capitalization past $536 billion, according to industry website CoinMarketCap https://coinmarketcap.com.
(Reporting by John McCrank; editing by Jonathan Oatis) || Bitcoin touches record above $29,000, extending 2020 rally: By John McCrank NEW YORK (Reuters) - The price of Bitcoin topped $29,000 on Thursday for the first time, with the digital currency almost quadrupling in value this year amid heightened interest from investors big and small alike. The world's most popular cryptocurrency touched $29,300 before pulling back, most recently down 0.67% at $28,774.36. It has surged by nearly half since breaking $20,000 for the first time on Dec. 16. Bitcoin's potential for quick gains, as well as expectations it could become a mainstream payment method, has attracted demand from larger U.S. investors, as well as from traders who normally stick to equities. "You can buy a stock like Amazon, you can buy a stock like Apple, and you know what you got," said Dennis Dick, a proprietary trader at Bright Trading LLC. "Bitcoin you really just have digits on a screen and you're really hoping that the guy behind you sees it as being worth more than what you just paid for it, so it's a purely speculative view," he said. Still, intrigued by the story behind bitcoin and the traction it was getting with institutional investors, he put 1% of his net worth into a bitcoin fund around five weeks ago, which has doubled in value since then, and he sold half on Thursday. "When you double your money within five weeks, if you sell half of it, I figure now youre playing with the house's money," he said. Recent gains have taken bitcoin's market capitalization past $536 billion, according to industry website CoinMarketCap https://coinmarketcap.com. (Reporting by John McCrank; editing by Jonathan Oatis) || Bitcoin touches record above $29,000, extending 2020 rally: By John McCrank
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The price of Bitcoin topped $29,000 on Thursday for the first time, with the digital currency almost quadrupling in value this year amid heightened interest from investors big and small alike.
The world's most popular cryptocurrency touched $29,300 before pulling back, most recently down 0.67% at $28,774.36. It has surged by nearly half since breaking $20,000 for the first time on Dec. 16.
Bitcoin's potential for quick gains, as well as expectations it could become a mainstream payment method, has attracted demand from larger U.S. investors, as well as from traders who normally stick to equities.
"You can buy a stock like Amazon, you can buy a stock like Apple, and you know what you got," said Dennis Dick, a proprietary trader at Bright Trading LLC. "Bitcoin you really just have digits on a screen and you're really hoping that the guy behind you sees it as being worth more than what you just paid for it, so it's a purely speculative view," he said.
Still, intrigued by the story behind bitcoin and the traction it was getting with institutional investors, he put 1% of his net worth into a bitcoin fund around five weeks ago, which has doubled in value since then, and he sold half on Thursday.
"When you double your money within five weeks, if you sell half of it, I figure now you’re playing with the house's money," he said.
Recent gains have taken bitcoin's market capitalization past $536 billion, according to industry website CoinMarketCap https://coinmarketcap.com.
(Reporting by John McCrank; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
[Social Media Buzz]
None available.
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32782.02, 31971.91, 33992.43, 36824.36, 39371.04, 40797.61, 40254.55, 38356.44, 35566.66, 33922.96
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Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices. The historical prices are: 7207.76, 7379.95, 7407.41, 7022.76, 7144.38, 7459.69, 7143.58, 6618.14, 6357.60, 5950.07, 6559.49, 6635.75, 7315.54, 7871.69, 7708.99, 7790.15, 8036.49, 8200.64, 8071.26, 8253.55, 8038.77, 8253.69, 8790.92, 9330.55, 9818.35, 10058.80, 9888.61, 10233.60, 10975.60, 11074.60, 11323.20, 11657.20, 11916.70, 14291.50, 17899.70, 16569.40, 15178.20, 15455.40, 16936.80, 17415.40, 16408.20, 16564.00, 17706.90, 19497.40, 19140.80, 19114.20, 17776.70, 16624.60, 15802.90, 13831.80, 14699.20, 13925.80, 14026.60, 16099.80, 15838.50, 14606.50, 14656.20, 12952.20, 14156.40, 13657.20, 14982.10, 15201.00, 15599.20, 17429.50, 17527.00, 16477.60, 15170.10, 14595.40, 14973.30, 13405.80, 13980.60, 14360.20, 13772.00, 13819.80, 11490.50, 11188.60, 11474.90, 11607.40, 12899.20, 11600.10, 10931.40, 10868.40, 11359.40, 11259.40, 11171.40, 11440.70, 11786.30, 11296.40, 10106.30, 10221.10.
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[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2018-01-31]
Volume: 8041160192, RSI (14-day): 36.88, 50-day EMA: 12622.47, 200-day EMA: 8945.07
[Wider Market Context]
Gold Price: 1339.00, Gold RSI: 59.49
Oil Price: 64.73, Oil RSI: 63.21
[Recent News (last 7 days)]
Why Bitcoin May Not Be Digital Gold After All: To explain Bitcoin’s exponential rise over the past year, proponents of the cryptocurrency often come back to the same refrain. Think of Bitcoin, they say, as digital gold—a so-called “store of value” that, like the precious metal itself, doesn’t need to have a lot of practical uses to be worth a lot of money. The price of a Bitcoin, which first surpassed the gold price nearly a year ago, is now worth more than seven times the value of an ounce of the metal (currently priced at $1,338). That’s after the Bitcoin price has tumbled recently to its current value around $10,000, half what it was worth at its all-time high last month. But whether Bitcoin can actually replace gold (let alone traditional government-backed currency) has been a matter of fervent debate—quite literally, as evidenced by an event last week entitled “Gold Versus Bitcoin,” held at a New York comedy club, in which well-known gold proponent (Jim Rickards debated James Altucher, a self-help author now peddling Bitcoin investment advice under the moniker “crypto-genius.” (The gold side, represented by Rickards, prevailed.) Cameron Winklevoss, who with his twin brother Tyler reportedly turned settlement money from their Facebook lawsuit into more than $1 billion in Bitcoin , has suggested the cryptocurrency could “disrupt” gold, calling it “gold 2.0.” Now, in a rare move, a major Wall Street bank has weighed in, too. Offering their latest market outlook Tuesday, investment strategists from Citigroup’s wealth management arm directly questioned Winklevoss’s argument—but still suggested that Bitcoin could offer better returns than gold. “Amid record low volatility in other asset classes, the grand scale of the volatility in cryptocurrencies is welcomed as a return vehicle by many traders,” the strategists from Citi Private Bank wrote in their report. “What should the expected return of the most volatile asset class be? Generally, the highest.” Indeed, Bitcoin has made investors far richer than gold has recently, with the cryptocurrency returning 1,116% over the past 12 months, compared to less than 12% for gold. But investors turn to gold in order to diversify their portfolio, using the metal as a safe haven protecting against a drop in the stock market. After all, gold historically has shown a negative correlation with stocks—meaning when stocks go down, gold typically rises, and vice versa. Story continues Bitcoin, on the other hand, not only is far more volatile than both stocks and gold (as illustrated in the chart above), but trades unpredictably, even maniacally, without any relationship to other assets or even gold itself. In its analysis, Citi Private Bank found that Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 was virtually zero, while its correlation with gold was .054, meaning gold and Bitcoin only trade in sync about 5% of the time—a relationship so negligible as to be insignificant. Those erratic movements would make it hard for Bitcoin to serve the same purpose as gold does for investors. What’s more, the Citi strategists doubt whether the world even needs a new version of gold, when governments long ago stopped pegging the value of paper currency to the metal: “Is a fixed supply of money, a digital gold standard, really superior to a flexible money supply?” the report’s authors wrote rhetorically. Still, Citi believes that Bitcoin’s ability to rise, no matter how other markets are trading, bodes well for investors, at least for the time being. “Low correlations between asset prices are also a sign of ‘bull market psychology,'” according to the report. “This benefits near-term returns at the expense of the future.” Because of those potential winnings, Citi advised that it would be reasonable for investors to own a small amount of cryptocurrencies, as such “opportunistic, speculative investments” could “have a role” in investment portfolios—as long as they don’t “overwhelm” the returns of more traditional stocks and bonds. Though the bank stopped short of dismissing Bitcoin altogether, it was highly skeptical that it or any of the other almost 1,500 other cryptocurrencies now in existence would survive, comparing the digital currencies to “lottery tickets.” Of the other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, the Citi strategists wrote, “We expect a great many to have a dubious future.” But that future could also be more distant than many cryptocurrency critics think. Noting that the value of tech stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble was many times the size of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value of about $519 billion), Citi’s report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto bubble bursts: “Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.” || Why Bitcoin May Not Be Digital Gold After All: To explain Bitcoin’s exponential rise over the past year, proponents of the cryptocurrency often come back to the same refrain. Think of Bitcoin, they say, as digital gold--a so-called “store of value” that, like the precious metal itself, doesn’t need to have a lot of practical uses to be worth a lot of money. The price of a Bitcoin, which first surpassed the gold price nearly a year ago, is now worth more than seven times the value of an ounce of the metal (currently priced at $1,338). That’s after the Bitcoin price has tumbled recently to its current value around $10,000, half what it was worth at its all-time high last month. But whether Bitcoin can actually replace gold (let alone traditional government-backed currency) has been a matter of fervent debate--quite literally, as evidenced by an event last week entitled “Gold Versus Bitcoin,” held at a New York comedy club, in which well-known gold proponent (Jim Rickards debated James Altucher, a self-help author now peddling Bitcoin investment advice under the moniker “crypto-genius.” (The gold side, represented by Rickards, prevailed.) Cameron Winklevoss, who with his twin brother Tyler reportedly turned settlement money from their lawsuit into more than $1 billion in Bitcoin , has suggested the cryptocurrency could “disrupt” gold, calling it “gold 2.0.” Now, in a rare move, a major Wall Street bank has weighed in, too. Offering their latest market outlook Tuesday, investment strategists from Citigroup’s wealth management arm directly questioned Winklevoss’s argument--but still suggested that Bitcoin could offer better returns than gold. “Amid record low volatility in other asset classes, the grand scale of the volatility in cryptocurrencies is welcomed as a return vehicle by many traders,” the strategists from Citi Private Bank wrote in their report. “What should the expected return of the most volatile asset class be? Generally, the highest.” Indeed, Bitcoin has made investors far richer than gold has recently, with the cryptocurrency returning 1,116% over the past 12 months, compared to less than 12% for gold. But investors turn to gold in order to diversify their portfolio, using the metal as a safe haven protecting against a drop in the stock market. After all, gold historically has shown a negative correlation with stocks--meaning when stocks go down, gold typically rises, and vice versa. Story continues Bitcoin, on the other hand, not only is far more volatile than both stocks and gold (as illustrated in the chart above), but trades unpredictably, even maniacally, without any relationship to other assets or even gold itself. In its analysis, Citi Private Bank found that Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 was virtually zero, while its correlation with gold was .054, meaning gold and Bitcoin only trade in sync about 5% of the time--a relationship so negligible as to be insignificant. Those erratic movements would make it hard for Bitcoin to serve the same purpose as gold does for investors. What’s more, the Citi strategists doubt whether the world even needs a new version of gold, when governments long ago stopped pegging the value of paper currency to the metal: “Is a fixed supply of money, a digital gold standard, really superior to a flexible money supply?” the report’s authors wrote rhetorically. Still, Citi believes that Bitcoin’s ability to rise, no matter how other markets are trading, bodes well for investors, at least for the time being. “Low correlations between asset prices are also a sign of ‘bull market psychology,'” according to the report. “This benefits near-term returns at the expense of the future.” Because of those potential winnings, Citi advised that it would be reasonable for investors to own a small amount of cryptocurrencies, as such “opportunistic, speculative investments” could “have a role” in investment portfolios--as long as they don’t “overwhelm” the returns of more traditional stocks and bonds. Though the bank stopped short of dismissing Bitcoin altogether, it was highly skeptical that it or any of the other almost 1,500 other cryptocurrencies now in existence would survive, comparing the digital currencies to “lottery tickets.” Of the other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, the Citi strategists wrote, “We expect a great many to have a dubious future.” But that future could also be more distant than many cryptocurrency critics think. Noting that the value of tech stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble was many times the size of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value of about $519 billion), Citi’s report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto bubble bursts: “Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.” See original article on Fortune.com More from Fortune.com South Korea Discovered $600 Million in Illegal Cryptocurrency Trading. But There Are No Plans to Ban It A Court Is Going to Decide Whether the Government Can Regulate Bitcoin Like Stocks BlackRock's Larry Fink Calls Cryptocurrencies 'An Index of Money Laundering' 50 Cent Forgot About Those Bitcoin He Got in 2014 and Now They're Worth $8 Million This Is What the Average Bitcoin Owner Looks Like || Why Bitcoin May Not Be Digital Gold After All: To explainBitcoin’s exponential riseover the past year, proponents of the cryptocurrency often come back to the same refrain. Think of Bitcoin, they say, as digital gold--a so-called “store of value” that, like the precious metal itself, doesn’t need to have a lot of practical uses to be worth a lot of money.
The price of a Bitcoin, which firstsurpassed the gold pricenearly a year ago, is now worth more than seven times the value of an ounce of the metal (currently priced at $1,338). That’s after the Bitcoin price has tumbled recently to its current value around $10,000, half what it was worth at its all-time high last month.
But whether Bitcoin can actually replace gold (let alone traditional government-backed currency) has been a matter of fervent debate--quite literally, as evidenced by an event last week entitled“Gold Versus Bitcoin,”held at a New York comedy club, in which well-known gold proponent (Jim Rickards debated James Altucher, a self-help author now peddling Bitcoin investment advice under the moniker “crypto-genius.” (The gold side, represented by Rickards, prevailed.)
Cameron Winklevoss, who with his twin brother Tyler reportedly turned settlement money from their lawsuit into more than$1 billion in Bitcoin, has suggested the cryptocurrency could “disrupt” gold, calling it“gold 2.0.”
Now, in a rare move, a major Wall Street bank has weighed in, too. Offering their latest market outlook Tuesday, investment strategists from Citigroup’s wealth management arm directly questioned Winklevoss’s argument--but still suggested that Bitcoin could offer better returns than gold.
“Amid record low volatility in other asset classes, the grand scale of the volatility in cryptocurrencies is welcomed as a return vehicle by many traders,” the strategists from Citi Private Bank wrote in their report. “What should the expected return of the most volatile asset class be? Generally, the highest.”
Indeed, Bitcoin has made investors far richer than gold has recently, with the cryptocurrency returning 1,116% over the past 12 months, compared to less than 12% for gold. But investors turn to gold in order to diversify their portfolio, using the metal as a safe haven protecting against a drop in the stock market. After all, gold historically has shown a negative correlation with stocks--meaning when stocks go down, gold typically rises, and vice versa.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, not only is far more volatile than both stocks and gold (as illustrated in the chart above), but trades unpredictably, even maniacally, without any relationship to other assets or even gold itself. In its analysis, Citi Private Bank found that Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 was virtually zero, while its correlation with gold was .054, meaning gold and Bitcoin only trade in sync about 5% of the time--a relationship so negligible as to be insignificant.
Those erratic movements would make it hard for Bitcoin to serve the same purpose as gold does for investors. What’s more, the Citi strategists doubt whether the world even needs a new version of gold, when governments long ago stopped pegging the value of paper currency to the metal: “Is a fixed supply of money, a digital gold standard, really superior to a flexible money supply?” the report’s authors wrote rhetorically.
Still, Citi believes that Bitcoin’s ability to rise, no matter how other markets are trading, bodes well for investors, at least for the time being. “Low correlations between asset prices are also a sign of ‘bull market psychology,'” according to the report. “This benefits near-term returns at the expense of the future.”
Because of those potential winnings, Citi advised that it would be reasonable for investors to own a small amount of cryptocurrencies, as such “opportunistic, speculative investments” could “have a role” in investment portfolios--as long as they don’t “overwhelm” the returns of more traditional stocks and bonds.
Though the bank stopped short of dismissing Bitcoin altogether, it was highly skeptical that it or any of the other almost 1,500 other cryptocurrencies now in existence would survive, comparing the digital currencies to “lottery tickets.” Of the other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, the Citi strategists wrote, “We expect a great many to have a dubious future.”
But that future could also be more distant than many cryptocurrency critics think. Noting that the value of tech stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble was many times the size of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value of about $519 billion), Citi’s report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto bubble bursts: “Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.”
See original article on Fortune.com
More from Fortune.com
• South Korea Discovered $600 Million in Illegal Cryptocurrency Trading. But There Are No Plans to Ban It
• A Court Is Going to Decide Whether the Government Can Regulate Bitcoin Like Stocks
• BlackRock's Larry Fink Calls Cryptocurrencies 'An Index of Money Laundering'
• 50 Cent Forgot About Those Bitcoin He Got in 2014 and Now They're Worth $8 Million
• This Is What the Average Bitcoin Owner Looks Like || Why Bitcoin May Not Be Digital Gold After All: To explainBitcoin’s exponential riseover the past year, proponents of the cryptocurrency often come back to the same refrain. Think of Bitcoin, they say, as digital gold—a so-called “store of value” that, like the precious metal itself, doesn’t need to have a lot of practical uses to be worth a lot of money.
The price of a Bitcoin, which firstsurpassed the gold pricenearly a year ago, is now worth more than seven times the value of an ounce of the metal (currently priced at $1,338). That’s after the Bitcoin price has tumbled recently to its current value around $10,000, half what it was worth at its all-time high last month.
But whether Bitcoin can actually replace gold (let alone traditional government-backed currency) has been a matter of fervent debate—quite literally, as evidenced by an event last week entitled“Gold Versus Bitcoin,”held at a New York comedy club, in which well-known gold proponent (Jim Rickards debated James Altucher, a self-help author now peddling Bitcoin investment advice under the moniker “crypto-genius.” (The gold side, represented by Rickards, prevailed.)
Cameron Winklevoss, who with his twin brother Tyler reportedly turned settlement money from theirFacebooklawsuit into more than$1 billion in Bitcoin, has suggested the cryptocurrency could “disrupt” gold, calling it“gold 2.0.”
Now, in a rare move, a major Wall Street bank has weighed in, too. Offering their latest market outlook Tuesday, investment strategists from Citigroup’s wealth management arm directly questioned Winklevoss’s argument—but still suggested that Bitcoin could offer better returns than gold.
“Amid record low volatility in other asset classes, the grand scale of the volatility in cryptocurrencies is welcomed as a return vehicle by many traders,” the strategists from Citi Private Bank wrote in their report. “What should the expected return of the most volatile asset class be? Generally, the highest.”
Indeed, Bitcoin has made investors far richer than gold has recently, with the cryptocurrency returning 1,116% over the past 12 months, compared to less than 12% for gold. But investors turn to gold in order to diversify their portfolio, using the metal as a safe haven protecting against a drop in the stock market. After all, gold historically has shown a negative correlation with stocks—meaning when stocks go down, gold typically rises, and vice versa.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, not only is far more volatile than both stocks and gold (as illustrated in the chart above), but trades unpredictably, even maniacally, without any relationship to other assets or even gold itself. In its analysis, Citi Private Bank found that Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 was virtually zero, while its correlation with gold was .054, meaning gold and Bitcoin only trade in sync about 5% of the time—a relationship so negligible as to be insignificant.
Those erratic movements would make it hard for Bitcoin to serve the same purpose as gold does for investors. What’s more, the Citi strategists doubt whether the world even needs a new version of gold, when governments long ago stopped pegging the value of paper currency to the metal: “Is a fixed supply of money, a digital gold standard, really superior to a flexible money supply?” the report’s authors wrote rhetorically.
Still, Citi believes that Bitcoin’s ability to rise, no matter how other markets are trading, bodes well for investors, at least for the time being. “Low correlations between asset prices are also a sign of ‘bull market psychology,'” according to the report. “This benefits near-term returns at the expense of the future.”
Because of those potential winnings, Citi advised that it would be reasonable for investors to own a small amount of cryptocurrencies, as such “opportunistic, speculative investments” could “have a role” in investment portfolios—as long as they don’t “overwhelm” the returns of more traditional stocks and bonds.
Though the bank stopped short of dismissing Bitcoin altogether, it was highly skeptical that it or any of the other almost 1,500 other cryptocurrencies now in existence would survive, comparing the digital currencies to “lottery tickets.” Of the other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, the Citi strategists wrote, “We expect a great many to have a dubious future.”
But that future could also be more distant than many cryptocurrency critics think. Noting that the value of tech stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble was many times the size of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value of about $519 billion), Citi’s report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto bubble bursts: “Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.” || Why Bitcoin May Not Be Digital Gold After All: To explainBitcoin’s exponential riseover the past year, proponents of the cryptocurrency often come back to the same refrain. Think of Bitcoin, they say, as digital gold--a so-called “store of value” that, like the precious metal itself, doesn’t need to have a lot of practical uses to be worth a lot of money.
The price of a Bitcoin, which firstsurpassed the gold pricenearly a year ago, is now worth more than seven times the value of an ounce of the metal (currently priced at $1,338). That’s after the Bitcoin price has tumbled recently to its current value around $10,000, half what it was worth at its all-time high last month.
But whether Bitcoin can actually replace gold (let alone traditional government-backed currency) has been a matter of fervent debate--quite literally, as evidenced by an event last week entitled“Gold Versus Bitcoin,”held at a New York comedy club, in which well-known gold proponent (Jim Rickards debated James Altucher, a self-help author now peddling Bitcoin investment advice under the moniker “crypto-genius.” (The gold side, represented by Rickards, prevailed.)
Cameron Winklevoss, who with his twin brother Tyler reportedly turned settlement money from their lawsuit into more than$1 billion in Bitcoin, has suggested the cryptocurrency could “disrupt” gold, calling it“gold 2.0.”
Now, in a rare move, a major Wall Street bank has weighed in, too. Offering their latest market outlook Tuesday, investment strategists from Citigroup’s wealth management arm directly questioned Winklevoss’s argument--but still suggested that Bitcoin could offer better returns than gold.
“Amid record low volatility in other asset classes, the grand scale of the volatility in cryptocurrencies is welcomed as a return vehicle by many traders,” the strategists from Citi Private Bank wrote in their report. “What should the expected return of the most volatile asset class be? Generally, the highest.”
Indeed, Bitcoin has made investors far richer than gold has recently, with the cryptocurrency returning 1,116% over the past 12 months, compared to less than 12% for gold. But investors turn to gold in order to diversify their portfolio, using the metal as a safe haven protecting against a drop in the stock market. After all, gold historically has shown a negative correlation with stocks--meaning when stocks go down, gold typically rises, and vice versa.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, not only is far more volatile than both stocks and gold (as illustrated in the chart above), but trades unpredictably, even maniacally, without any relationship to other assets or even gold itself. In its analysis, Citi Private Bank found that Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 was virtually zero, while its correlation with gold was .054, meaning gold and Bitcoin only trade in sync about 5% of the time--a relationship so negligible as to be insignificant.
Those erratic movements would make it hard for Bitcoin to serve the same purpose as gold does for investors. What’s more, the Citi strategists doubt whether the world even needs a new version of gold, when governments long ago stopped pegging the value of paper currency to the metal: “Is a fixed supply of money, a digital gold standard, really superior to a flexible money supply?” the report’s authors wrote rhetorically.
Still, Citi believes that Bitcoin’s ability to rise, no matter how other markets are trading, bodes well for investors, at least for the time being. “Low correlations between asset prices are also a sign of ‘bull market psychology,'” according to the report. “This benefits near-term returns at the expense of the future.”
Because of those potential winnings, Citi advised that it would be reasonable for investors to own a small amount of cryptocurrencies, as such “opportunistic, speculative investments” could “have a role” in investment portfolios--as long as they don’t “overwhelm” the returns of more traditional stocks and bonds.
Though the bank stopped short of dismissing Bitcoin altogether, it was highly skeptical that it or any of the other almost 1,500 other cryptocurrencies now in existence would survive, comparing the digital currencies to “lottery tickets.” Of the other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, the Citi strategists wrote, “We expect a great many to have a dubious future.”
But that future could also be more distant than many cryptocurrency critics think. Noting that the value of tech stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble was many times the size of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value of about $519 billion), Citi’s report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto bubble bursts: “Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.”
See original article on Fortune.com
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• This Is What the Average Bitcoin Owner Looks Like || Why Bitcoin May Not Be Digital Gold After All: To explainBitcoin’s exponential riseover the past year, proponents of the cryptocurrency often come back to the same refrain. Think of Bitcoin, they say, as digital gold—a so-called “store of value” that, like the precious metal itself, doesn’t need to have a lot of practical uses to be worth a lot of money.
The price of a Bitcoin, which firstsurpassed the gold pricenearly a year ago, is now worth more than seven times the value of an ounce of the metal (currently priced at $1,338). That’s after the Bitcoin price has tumbled recently to its current value around $10,000, half what it was worth at its all-time high last month.
But whether Bitcoin can actually replace gold (let alone traditional government-backed currency) has been a matter of fervent debate—quite literally, as evidenced by an event last week entitled“Gold Versus Bitcoin,”held at a New York comedy club, in which well-known gold proponent (Jim Rickards debated James Altucher, a self-help author now peddling Bitcoin investment advice under the moniker “crypto-genius.” (The gold side, represented by Rickards, prevailed.)
Cameron Winklevoss, who with his twin brother Tyler reportedly turned settlement money from theirFacebooklawsuit into more than$1 billion in Bitcoin, has suggested the cryptocurrency could “disrupt” gold, calling it“gold 2.0.”
Now, in a rare move, a major Wall Street bank has weighed in, too. Offering their latest market outlook Tuesday, investment strategists from Citigroup’s wealth management arm directly questioned Winklevoss’s argument—but still suggested that Bitcoin could offer better returns than gold.
“Amid record low volatility in other asset classes, the grand scale of the volatility in cryptocurrencies is welcomed as a return vehicle by many traders,” the strategists from Citi Private Bank wrote in their report. “What should the expected return of the most volatile asset class be? Generally, the highest.”
Indeed, Bitcoin has made investors far richer than gold has recently, with the cryptocurrency returning 1,116% over the past 12 months, compared to less than 12% for gold. But investors turn to gold in order to diversify their portfolio, using the metal as a safe haven protecting against a drop in the stock market. After all, gold historically has shown a negative correlation with stocks—meaning when stocks go down, gold typically rises, and vice versa.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, not only is far more volatile than both stocks and gold (as illustrated in the chart above), but trades unpredictably, even maniacally, without any relationship to other assets or even gold itself. In its analysis, Citi Private Bank found that Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 was virtually zero, while its correlation with gold was .054, meaning gold and Bitcoin only trade in sync about 5% of the time—a relationship so negligible as to be insignificant.
Those erratic movements would make it hard for Bitcoin to serve the same purpose as gold does for investors. What’s more, the Citi strategists doubt whether the world even needs a new version of gold, when governments long ago stopped pegging the value of paper currency to the metal: “Is a fixed supply of money, a digital gold standard, really superior to a flexible money supply?” the report’s authors wrote rhetorically.
Still, Citi believes that Bitcoin’s ability to rise, no matter how other markets are trading, bodes well for investors, at least for the time being. “Low correlations between asset prices are also a sign of ‘bull market psychology,'” according to the report. “This benefits near-term returns at the expense of the future.”
Because of those potential winnings, Citi advised that it would be reasonable for investors to own a small amount of cryptocurrencies, as such “opportunistic, speculative investments” could “have a role” in investment portfolios—as long as they don’t “overwhelm” the returns of more traditional stocks and bonds.
Though the bank stopped short of dismissing Bitcoin altogether, it was highly skeptical that it or any of the other almost 1,500 other cryptocurrencies now in existence would survive, comparing the digital currencies to “lottery tickets.” Of the other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, the Citi strategists wrote, “We expect a great many to have a dubious future.”
But that future could also be more distant than many cryptocurrency critics think. Noting that the value of tech stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble was many times the size of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value of about $519 billion), Citi’s report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto bubble bursts: “Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.” || AMD's earnings top estimates as graphics chip demand surges: By Arjun Panchadar (Reuters) - AMD's (AMD.O) fourth-quarter earnings and revenue handily topped Wall Street forecasts on Tuesday, as the chipmaker sold more graphics processors used in data centres and computers. Sunnyvale, California-based AMD said sales in its graphics and computing business rose 60 percent year-over-year to $958 million (676.98 million pounds) in the quarter ended Dec. 30. About a third of the quarter-over-quarter growth in the unit's revenue was a result of demand from cryptocurrency miners. The rest came from sales of graphics processing units, or GPUs, that are used in computers, servers and gaming consoles. AMD, like rival Nvidia (NVDA.O), is benefiting from the recent boom in cryptocurrencies, as its GPUs provide the high computing ability required for cryptocurrency mining. Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, rose more than 1,300 percent in 2017, but has slipped some 25 percent this year amid fears of a bubble. For the quarter ending March, AMD forecast revenue of about $1.55 billion, give or take $50 million. The forecast was driven mainly by demand for AMD's Ryzen processors, EPYC products and GPUs, said Chief Financial Officer Devinder Kumar. AMD's fourth-quarter revenue rose 33.3 percent to $1.48 billion, exceeding analysts' average estimate of $1.41 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. The company reported net income of $61 million, compared to a loss of $51 million a year earlier. Results also reflected an $18 million one-time tax credit related to new U.S. tax laws. Excluding one-time items, AMD earned 8 cents per share, topping analysts' estimates of 5 cents. The company's shares were roughly flat in after-hours trading following an initial 6 percent selloff. Investors may have been reacting initially to AMD's gross margin results and forecast, Summit Redstone Partners analyst Kinngai Chan said. AMD expects first-quarter adjusted gross margins of about 36 percent. It recorded gross profit margins of 35 percent for the fourth quarter. Story continues In a cautionary statement accompanying results, AMD said its efforts to fix critical security flaws in its chips may be costly or even ineffective. Two chip flaws, dubbed "Spectre" and "Meltdown" could let hackers steal sensitive data from nearly every modern computing device containing chips from AMD, Intel (INTC.O) or ARM Holdings, researchers said earlier this month. Still, AMD did not expect any "unusual" expenses related to the flaws, Chief Executive Lisa Su said. The chipmaker was deploying operating system patches to customers to address the issue, Su added. "Longer term, we have included changes in our future processor cores starting with our Zen 2 design to further address potential Spectre-like exploits," she said. (Reporting by Arjun Panchadar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sai Sachin Ravikumar) || AMD's earnings top estimates as graphics chip demand surges: By Arjun Panchadar (Reuters) - AMD's (AMD.O) fourth-quarter earnings and revenue handily topped Wall Street forecasts on Tuesday, as the chipmaker sold more graphics processors used in data centres and computers. Sunnyvale, California-based AMD said sales in its graphics and computing business rose 60 percent year-over-year to $958 million (676.98 million pounds) in the quarter ended Dec. 30. About a third of the quarter-over-quarter growth in the unit's revenue was a result of demand from cryptocurrency miners. The rest came from sales of graphics processing units, or GPUs, that are used in computers, servers and gaming consoles. AMD, like rival Nvidia (NVDA.O), is benefiting from the recent boom in cryptocurrencies, as its GPUs provide the high computing ability required for cryptocurrency mining. Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, rose more than 1,300 percent in 2017, but has slipped some 25 percent this year amid fears of a bubble. For the quarter ending March, AMD forecast revenue of about $1.55 billion, give or take $50 million. The forecast was driven mainly by demand for AMD's Ryzen processors, EPYC products and GPUs, said Chief Financial Officer Devinder Kumar. AMD's fourth-quarter revenue rose 33.3 percent to $1.48 billion, exceeding analysts' average estimate of $1.41 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. The company reported net income of $61 million, compared to a loss of $51 million a year earlier. Results also reflected an $18 million one-time tax credit related to new U.S. tax laws. Excluding one-time items, AMD earned 8 cents per share, topping analysts' estimates of 5 cents. The company's shares were roughly flat in after-hours trading following an initial 6 percent selloff. Investors may have been reacting initially to AMD's gross margin results and forecast, Summit Redstone Partners analyst Kinngai Chan said. AMD expects first-quarter adjusted gross margins of about 36 percent. It recorded gross profit margins of 35 percent for the fourth quarter. Story continues In a cautionary statement accompanying results, AMD said its efforts to fix critical security flaws in its chips may be costly or even ineffective. Two chip flaws, dubbed "Spectre" and "Meltdown" could let hackers steal sensitive data from nearly every modern computing device containing chips from AMD, Intel (INTC.O) or ARM Holdings, researchers said earlier this month. Still, AMD did not expect any "unusual" expenses related to the flaws, Chief Executive Lisa Su said. The chipmaker was deploying operating system patches to customers to address the issue, Su added. "Longer term, we have included changes in our future processor cores starting with our Zen 2 design to further address potential Spectre-like exploits," she said. (Reporting by Arjun Panchadar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sai Sachin Ravikumar) || Post-Market Q4 Earnings Parade: SFLY, ALGN & More: Following today's closing bell, we see fresh quarterly earnings results from a host of new companies. As we've seen thus far in Q4 earnings season, results are generally better than expected, in some instances much more so.For instance, Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)-rated Shutterfly SFLY is up 15% in after-hours trading following its big earnings beat reported this afternoon: $3.37 per share ($3.11 allowing for the one-time tax charge) on $593.8 million in revenues easily zipped past the $2.91 per share and $557 million, respectively. This is the 4th straight earnings beat for the photo services company, and its 15% positive surprise in the quarter is improved on the trailing 4-quarter average surprise of +10.35%.Align Technologies ALGN was also up big upon its initial posting of its quarterly results, which showed a 10-cent beat to $1.06 per share on $421.3 million in sales, which was well above the $395.5 million expected. This revenue actual also represents a year-over-year gain of 43.7%, with operating income in the quarter up 60% and Invisalign case shipments up 8% sequentially, 34% year over year.Advanced Micro Devices AMD also beat on top- and bottom-lines this afternoon, posting 8 cents per share and $1.48 billion in revenues which outpaced the 5 cents and $1.40 billion expected. The Silicon Valley semiconductor firm took a one-time tax credit of $18 million for the quarter, and guidance was up big to $1.55 billion in revenues compared to $1,25 analysts had been looking for. For more on AMD's earnings, click here.
Don’t Even Think About Buying Bitcoin Until You Read This
The most popular cryptocurrency skyrocketed last year, giving some investors the chance to bank 20X returns or even more. Those gains, however, came with serious volatility and risk. Bitcoin sank 25% or more 3 times in 2017.
Zacks’ has just released a new Special Report to help readers capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly.See 4 crypto-related stocks now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.Click to get this free reportShutterfly, Inc. (SFLY) : Free Stock Analysis ReportAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) : Free Stock Analysis ReportAlign Technology, Inc. (ALGN) : Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research || Post-Market Q4 Earnings Parade: SFLY, ALGN & More: Following today's closing bell, we see fresh quarterly earnings results from a host of new companies. As we've seen thus far in Q4 earnings season, results are generally better than expected, in some instances much more so. For instance, Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)-rated Shutterfly SFLY is up 15% in after-hours trading following its big earnings beat reported this afternoon: $3.37 per share ($3.11 allowing for the one-time tax charge) on $593.8 million in revenues easily zipped past the $2.91 per share and $557 million, respectively. This is the 4th straight earnings beat for the photo services company, and its 15% positive surprise in the quarter is improved on the trailing 4-quarter average surprise of +10.35%. Align Technologies ALGN was also up big upon its initial posting of its quarterly results, which showed a 10-cent beat to $1.06 per share on $421.3 million in sales, which was well above the $395.5 million expected. This revenue actual also represents a year-over-year gain of 43.7%, with operating income in the quarter up 60% and Invisalign case shipments up 8% sequentially, 34% year over year. Advanced Micro Devices AMD also beat on top- and bottom-lines this afternoon, posting 8 cents per share and $1.48 billion in revenues which outpaced the 5 cents and $1.40 billion expected. The Silicon Valley semiconductor firm took a one-time tax credit of $18 million for the quarter, and guidance was up big to $1.55 billion in revenues compared to $1,25 analysts had been looking for. For more on AMD's earnings, click here. Don’t Even Think About Buying Bitcoin Until You Read This The most popular cryptocurrency skyrocketed last year, giving some investors the chance to bank 20X returns or even more. Those gains, however, came with serious volatility and risk. Bitcoin sank 25% or more 3 times in 2017. Zacks’ has just released a new Special Report to help readers capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. See 4 crypto-related stocks now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Shutterfly, Inc. (SFLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) : Free Stock Analysis Report Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research || Advanced Micro (AMD) Stock Slips Despite Q4 Earnings Beat: Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMDjust released its fourth quarter fiscal 2017 financial results, posting earnings of 8 cents per share and revenues of $1.48 billion. Currently, AMD is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), and is down 5.3% to $12.20 per share in trading shortly after its earnings report was released.
The chip maker:
Beat earnings estimates.AMD reported non-GAAP diluted earnings of 8 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5 cents per share. Net income was $88 million.
Beat revenue estimates.The company saw revenue figures of $1.48 billion, just topping our consensus estimate of $1.4 billion and increasing 34% year-over-year growth thanks to strong sales of its Radeon and Ryzen processors.
Gross margin came to 35%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year but flat on a sequential basis.
AMD’s computing and graphics segment revenue was $958 million, growing 60% year-over-year and 17% sequentially.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2018, the company expects revenue to be roughly $1.55 billion, plus or minus $50 million, which represents an increase of 32%. This anticipated growth is primarily driven by the strength of AMD’s new Ryzen, GPU, and EPYC products.
"We are even more excited about 2018 as we launch our next wave of high-performance products and continue to position AMD as one of the premier long-term growth companies in the technology industry,” said Dr. Lisa Su, AMD president and CEO.
Here’s a graph that looks at Advanced Micro Devices’ price, consensus, and EPS surprise:
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Quote
Advanced Micro Devices is a world-class company with the innovation, execution, and vision to grow our leadership position in the industry. Over the course of AMD's three decades in business, silicon and software have become the steel and plastic of the worldwide digital economy. Technology companies have become global pacesetters, making technical advances at a prodigious rate always driving the industry to deliver more and more, faster and faster. AMD's dedication to customer-centric innovation and competitive spirit is an unbroken thread running from our early days in the integrated circuit business, through an ever-broadening product portfolio.
Don’t Even Think About Buying Bitcoin Until You Read This
The most popular cryptocurrency skyrocketed last year, giving some investors the chance to bank 20X returns or even more. Those gains, however, came with serious volatility and risk. Bitcoin sank 25% or more 3 times in 2017.
Zacks’ has just released a new Special Report to help readers capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly.See 4 crypto-related stocks now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.Click to get this free reportAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) : Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research || Advanced Micro (AMD) Stock Slips Despite Q4 Earnings Beat: Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD just released its fourth quarter fiscal 2017 financial results, posting earnings of 8 cents per share and revenues of $1.48 billion. Currently, AMD is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), and is down 5.3% to $12.20 per share in trading shortly after its earnings report was released. The chip maker: Beat earnings estimates. AMD reported non-GAAP diluted earnings of 8 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5 cents per share. Net income was $88 million. Beat revenue estimates. The company saw revenue figures of $1.48 billion, just topping our consensus estimate of $1.4 billion and increasing 34% year-over-year growth thanks to strong sales of its Radeon and Ryzen processors. Gross margin came to 35%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year but flat on a sequential basis. AMD’s computing and graphics segment revenue was $958 million, growing 60% year-over-year and 17% sequentially. For the first quarter of fiscal 2018, the company expects revenue to be roughly $1.55 billion, plus or minus $50 million, which represents an increase of 32%. This anticipated growth is primarily driven by the strength of AMD’s new Ryzen, GPU, and EPYC products. "We are even more excited about 2018 as we launch our next wave of high-performance products and continue to position AMD as one of the premier long-term growth companies in the technology industry,” said Dr. Lisa Su, AMD president and CEO. Here’s a graph that looks at Advanced Micro Devices’ price, consensus, and EPS surprise: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Quote Advanced Micro Devices is a world-class company with the innovation, execution, and vision to grow our leadership position in the industry. Over the course of AMD's three decades in business, silicon and software have become the steel and plastic of the worldwide digital economy. Technology companies have become global pacesetters, making technical advances at a prodigious rate always driving the industry to deliver more and more, faster and faster. AMD's dedication to customer-centric innovation and competitive spirit is an unbroken thread running from our early days in the integrated circuit business, through an ever-broadening product portfolio. Don’t Even Think About Buying Bitcoin Until You Read This The most popular cryptocurrency skyrocketed last year, giving some investors the chance to bank 20X returns or even more. Those gains, however, came with serious volatility and risk. Bitcoin sank 25% or more 3 times in 2017. Story continues Zacks’ has just released a new Special Report to help readers capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. See 4 crypto-related stocks now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research View comments || What Happened in the Stock Market Today: The stock market plunged on Tuesday, extending Monday's losses amid concerns that the recent strength in equities may not be sustainable. When all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and S&P; 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) both fell more than 1%. Today's stock market Index Percentage Change Point Change Dow (1.37%) (362.59) S&P 500 (1.09%) (31.10) Data source: Yahoo! Finance. Oil stocks were among the hardest-hit today as oil prices continued to slide from multiyear highs, with the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (NYSEMKT: XOP) down 3.5%. Retail stocks also pulled back more than most; the SPDR S&P Retail EFT (NYSEMKT: XRT) lost 2.2%. As for individual stocks, disappointing earnings news left shares of both Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) and Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG) in the red today. Wall St. street sign with three American flags in the background Image source: Getty Images. Harley predicts a bumpy road ahead Shares of Harley-Davidson fell 8.1% today after motorcycle manufacturer announced slightly better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2017 results, but followed with disappointing guidance and plans to close an assembly plant. Harley's revenue from motorcycles and related products climbed 12.2% year over year to $1.047 billion, above expectations for $1.01 billion and driven primarily by higher motorcycle shipments. After adjusting for one-time items -- including a $53.1 million income tax charge related to the recent U.S. tax reform -- net income arrived at $0.54 per share, up from $0.27 in the same year-ago period and well above expectations for $0.46 per share. But Harley also stated while shipments were up, its worldwide retail motorcycle sales fell 9.6% year over year during the quarter. If that wasn't enough, Harley anticipates motorcycle shipments in 2018 will range from 231,000 to 236,000, down from 241,498 in 2017. On a more encouraging note, Harley confirmed it's on track to launch its first electric motorcycle within 18 months -- a move that that could serve to combat shipment declines and generate excitement and participation from the next generation of Harley riders. But it will also come at the expense of the flagship sound on which the Harley brand has built its legacy. Story continues Finally, Harley announced a multiyear initiative to improve manufacturing and cut costs, starting with the consolidation of its Kansas City, Missouri, assembly plant with its plant in York, Pennsylvania. As such, Harley expects to incur restructuring costs of $170 million to $200 million over the next two years, while simultaneously making capital investments of roughly $75 million. Starting in 2020, Harley believes the effort will yield annual cash savings of $65 million to $75 million. Scotts Miracle-Gro withers after a big loss Scotts Miracle-Gro stock plunged 14.2% today after the lawn and garden products leader announced disappointing quarterly results. Revenue grew 7% year over year to $221.5 million, albeit driven primarily by acquisitions within its Hawthorne Hydroponics subsidiary. Sales at Hawthorne would have fallen $12 million year over year excluding acquisitions -- a trend that Scotts believes is temporary given the slower-than-expected pace of regulatory changes in California. On the bottom line, that translated to an adjusted loss of $62.2 million, or $1.08 per share. Analysts, on average, were expecting a narrower loss of $0.94 per share on revenue of $238.5 million. "As we prepare for the start of the lawn and garden season, our core business is on pace with our internal expectations and we continue to expect solid consumer and retailer engagement once the weather breaks," assured Scotts CEO Jim Hagedorn. In the meantime, thanks to favorable corporate tax changes, Scotts raised both ends of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance by $0.45 per share, resulting in a new range of $4.60 to $4.80. But given Hawthorne's slow start, it also reduced its full-year sales outlook to call for growth of 2% to 4%, down from its old guidance for 4% to 6% growth. More From The Motley Fool 3 Growth Stocks at Deep-Value Prices 5 Expected Social Security Changes in 2018 6 Years Later, 6 Charts That Show How Far Apple, Inc. Has Come Since Steve Jobs' Passing 10 Best Stocks to Buy Today The $16,122 Social Security Bonus You Cannot Afford to Miss Bitcoin's Biggest Competitor Isn't Ethereum -- It's This Steve Symington has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy . || What Happened in the Stock Market Today: The stock market plunged on Tuesday, extendingMonday's lossesamid concerns that the recent strength in equities may not be sustainable. When all was said and done, theDow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES: ^DJI)andS&P; 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)both fell more than 1%.
[{"Index": "Dow", "Percentage Change": "(1.37%)", "Point Change": "(362.59)"}, {"Index": "S&P 500", "Percentage Change": "(1.09%)", "Point Change": "(31.10)"}]
Data source: Yahoo! Finance.
Oil stocks were among the hardest-hit today as oil prices continued to slide from multiyear highs, with theSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF(NYSEMKT: XOP)down 3.5%. Retail stocks also pulled back more than most; theSPDR S&P Retail EFT(NYSEMKT: XRT)lost 2.2%.
As for individual stocks, disappointing earnings news left shares of bothHarley-Davidson(NYSE: HOG)andScotts Miracle-Gro(NYSE: SMG)in the red today.
Image source: Getty Images.
Shares of Harley-Davidson fell 8.1% today after motorcycle manufacturer announced slightly better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2017 results, but followed with disappointing guidance and plans to close an assembly plant.
Harley's revenue from motorcycles and related products climbed 12.2% year over year to $1.047 billion, above expectations for $1.01 billion and driven primarily by higher motorcycle shipments. After adjusting for one-time items -- including a $53.1 million income tax charge related tothe recent U.S. tax reform-- net income arrived at $0.54 per share, up from $0.27 in the same year-ago period and well above expectations for $0.46 per share.
But Harley also stated while shipments were up, its worldwide retail motorcycle sales fell 9.6% year over year during the quarter. If that wasn't enough, Harley anticipates motorcycle shipments in 2018 will range from 231,000 to 236,000, down from 241,498 in 2017.
On a more encouraging note, Harley confirmed it's on track to launch its first electric motorcycle within 18 months -- a move that that could serve to combat shipment declines and generate excitement and participation from the next generation of Harley riders. But it will also come at the expense of the flagshipsoundon which the Harley brand has built its legacy.
Finally, Harley announced a multiyear initiative to improve manufacturing and cut costs, starting with the consolidation of its Kansas City, Missouri, assembly plant with its plant in York, Pennsylvania. As such, Harley expects to incur restructuring costs of $170 million to $200 million over the next two years, while simultaneously making capital investments of roughly $75 million. Starting in 2020, Harley believes the effort will yield annual cash savings of $65 million to $75 million.
Scotts Miracle-Gro stock plunged 14.2% today after the lawn and garden products leader announced disappointing quarterly results. Revenue grew 7% year over year to $221.5 million, albeit driven primarily by acquisitions within its Hawthorne Hydroponics subsidiary. Sales at Hawthorne would have fallen $12 million year over year excluding acquisitions -- a trend that Scotts believes is temporary given the slower-than-expected pace of regulatory changes in California.
On the bottom line, that translated to an adjusted loss of $62.2 million, or $1.08 per share. Analysts, on average, were expecting a narrower loss of $0.94 per share on revenue of $238.5 million.
"As we prepare for the start of the lawn and garden season, our core business is on pace with our internal expectations and we continue to expect solid consumer and retailer engagement once the weather breaks," assured Scotts CEO Jim Hagedorn.
In the meantime, thanks to favorable corporate tax changes, Scotts raised both ends of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance by $0.45 per share, resulting in a new range of $4.60 to $4.80. But given Hawthorne's slow start, it also reduced its full-year sales outlook to call for growth of 2% to 4%, down from its old guidance for 4% to 6% growth.
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Steve Symingtonhas no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy. || U.S. regulator subpoenas cryptocurrency platforms Bitfinex and Tether: source: By Michelle Price and Anna Irrera
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. derivatives regulator has sent a subpoena to two of the world's largest cryptocurrency platforms, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as watchdogs globally increase their scrutiny of the emerging asset class.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a subpoena on Dec. 6 to both Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Tether, a company that issues a virtual currency, the person said, wishing to remain anonymous because the matter is private.
Regulators send subpoenas in order to gather information into a range of inquiries. Reuters could not ascertain what information the CFTC requested from Bitfinex and Tether, or if the CFTC was formally investigating the cryptocurrency platforms.
Donna Faulk White, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, declined to comment.
A spokesman for Bitfinex and Tether, which are affiliated with each other, said in a statement: "We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations. It is our policy not to comment on any such requests."
The subpoena was first reported by Bloomberg.
Bitfinex is an online platform that enables traders to buy and sell virtual currencies such as bitcoin and ether. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume, it is owned by a British Virgin Islands company and does not have a head office, Reuters reported in September.
Bitfinex is affiliated with Tether, a company that issues virtual coins that it says are pegged to the U.S. dollar and can be used in the cryptocurrency market as a substitute for the dollar.
The CFTC has been increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrencies over the past few months, an emerging asset class that it has said is highly vulnerable to manipulation and fraudsters.
Earlier this month the regulator sued three virtual currency operators for misappropriating investor funds which it said had falsely claimed to be investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In June 2016 the CFTC fined Bitfinex $75,000 for offering "illegal" cryptocurrency transactions and failing to register as a futures commission merchant. A few months later hackers stole 119,756 bitcoins from Bitfinex.
Bitcoin (BTC=BTSP) was trading at around $10,000 on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Michelle Price and Anna Irrera; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) || U.S. regulator subpoenas cryptocurrency platforms Bitfinex and Tether: source: By Michelle Price and Anna Irrera WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. derivatives regulator has sent a subpoena to two of the world's largest cryptocurrency platforms, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as watchdogs globally increase their scrutiny of the emerging asset class. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a subpoena on Dec. 6 to both Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Tether, a company that issues a virtual currency, the person said, wishing to remain anonymous because the matter is private. Regulators send subpoenas in order to gather information into a range of inquiries. Reuters could not ascertain what information the CFTC requested from Bitfinex and Tether, or if the CFTC was formally investigating the cryptocurrency platforms. Donna Faulk White, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, declined to comment. A spokesman for Bitfinex and Tether, which are affiliated with each other, said in a statement: "We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations. It is our policy not to comment on any such requests." The subpoena was first reported by Bloomberg. Bitfinex is an online platform that enables traders to buy and sell virtual currencies such as bitcoin and ether. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume, it is owned by a British Virgin Islands company and does not have a head office, Reuters reported in September. Bitfinex is affiliated with Tether, a company that issues virtual coins that it says are pegged to the U.S. dollar and can be used in the cryptocurrency market as a substitute for the dollar. The CFTC has been increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrencies over the past few months, an emerging asset class that it has said is highly vulnerable to manipulation and fraudsters. Earlier this month the regulator sued three virtual currency operators for misappropriating investor funds which it said had falsely claimed to be investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Story continues In June 2016 the CFTC fined Bitfinex $75,000 for offering "illegal" cryptocurrency transactions and failing to register as a futures commission merchant. A few months later hackers stole 119,756 bitcoins from Bitfinex. Bitcoin (BTC=BTSP) was trading at around $10,000 on Tuesday. (Reporting by Michelle Price and Anna Irrera; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) || U.S. regulator subpoenas cryptocurrency platforms Bitfinex and Tether: source: By Michelle Price and Anna Irrera WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. derivatives regulator has sent a subpoena to two of the world's largest cryptocurrency platforms, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as watchdogs globally increase their scrutiny of the emerging asset class. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a subpoena on Dec. 6 to both Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Tether, a company that issues a virtual currency, the person said, wishing to remain anonymous because the matter is private. Regulators send subpoenas in order to gather information into a range of inquiries. Reuters could not ascertain what information the CFTC requested from Bitfinex and Tether, or if the CFTC was formally investigating the cryptocurrency platforms. Donna Faulk White, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, declined to comment. A spokesman for Bitfinex and Tether, which are affiliated with each other, said in a statement: "We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations. It is our policy not to comment on any such requests." The subpoena was first reported by Bloomberg. Bitfinex is an online platform that enables traders to buy and sell virtual currencies such as bitcoin and ether. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume, it is owned by a British Virgin Islands company and does not have a head office, Reuters reported in September. Bitfinex is affiliated with Tether, a company that issues virtual coins that it says are pegged to the U.S. dollar and can be used in the cryptocurrency market as a substitute for the dollar. The CFTC has been increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrencies over the past few months, an emerging asset class that it has said is highly vulnerable to manipulation and fraudsters. Earlier this month the regulator sued three virtual currency operators for misappropriating investor funds which it said had falsely claimed to be investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In June 2016 the CFTC fined Bitfinex $75,000 for offering "illegal" cryptocurrency transactions and failing to register as a futures commission merchant. A few months later hackers stole 119,756 bitcoins from Bitfinex. Bitcoin was trading at around $10,000 on Tuesday. (Reporting by Michelle Price and Anna Irrera; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) || U.S. regulator subpoenas cryptocurrency platforms Bitfinex and Tether: source: By Michelle Price and Anna Irrera WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. derivatives regulator has sent a subpoena to two of the world's largest cryptocurrency platforms, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as watchdogs globally increase their scrutiny of the emerging asset class. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a subpoena on Dec. 6 to both Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Tether, a company that issues a virtual currency, the person said, wishing to remain anonymous because the matter is private. Regulators send subpoenas in order to gather information into a range of inquiries. Reuters could not ascertain what information the CFTC requested from Bitfinex and Tether, or if the CFTC was formally investigating the cryptocurrency platforms. Donna Faulk White, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, declined to comment. A spokesman for Bitfinex and Tether, which are affiliated with each other, said in a statement: "We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations. It is our policy not to comment on any such requests." The subpoena was first reported by Bloomberg. Bitfinex is an online platform that enables traders to buy and sell virtual currencies such as bitcoin and ether. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume, it is owned by a British Virgin Islands company and does not have a head office, Reuters reported in September. Bitfinex is affiliated with Tether, a company that issues virtual coins that it says are pegged to the U.S. dollar and can be used in the cryptocurrency market as a substitute for the dollar. The CFTC has been increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrencies over the past few months, an emerging asset class that it has said is highly vulnerable to manipulation and fraudsters. Earlier this month the regulator sued three virtual currency operators for misappropriating investor funds which it said had falsely claimed to be investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In June 2016 the CFTC fined Bitfinex $75,000 for offering "illegal" cryptocurrency transactions and failing to register as a futures commission merchant. A few months later hackers stole 119,756 bitcoins from Bitfinex. Bitcoin (BTC=BTSP) was trading at around $10,000 on Tuesday. (Reporting by Michelle Price and Anna Irrera; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) View comments || U.S. regulator subpoenas cryptocurrency platforms Bitfinex and Tether: source: By Michelle Price and Anna Irrera WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. derivatives regulator has sent a subpoena to two of the world's largest cryptocurrency platforms, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as watchdogs globally increase their scrutiny of the emerging asset class. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a subpoena on Dec. 6 to both Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Tether, a company that issues a virtual currency, the person said, wishing to remain anonymous because the matter is private. Regulators send subpoenas in order to gather information into a range of inquiries. Reuters could not ascertain what information the CFTC requested from Bitfinex and Tether, or if the CFTC was formally investigating the cryptocurrency platforms. Donna Faulk White, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, declined to comment. A spokesman for Bitfinex and Tether, which are affiliated with each other, said in a statement: "We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations. It is our policy not to comment on any such requests." The subpoena was first reported by Bloomberg. Bitfinex is an online platform that enables traders to buy and sell virtual currencies such as bitcoin and ether. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume, it is owned by a British Virgin Islands company and does not have a head office, Reuters reported in September. Bitfinex is affiliated with Tether, a company that issues virtual coins that it says are pegged to the U.S. dollar and can be used in the cryptocurrency market as a substitute for the dollar. The CFTC has been increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrencies over the past few months, an emerging asset class that it has said is highly vulnerable to manipulation and fraudsters. Earlier this month the regulator sued three virtual currency operators for misappropriating investor funds which it said had falsely claimed to be investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Story continues In June 2016 the CFTC fined Bitfinex $75,000 for offering "illegal" cryptocurrency transactions and failing to register as a futures commission merchant. A few months later hackers stole 119,756 bitcoins from Bitfinex. Bitcoin (BTC=BTSP) was trading at around $10,000 on Tuesday. (Reporting by Michelle Price and Anna Irrera; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) || U.S. regulator subpoenas cryptocurrency platforms Bitfinex and Tether: source: By Michelle Price and Anna Irrera WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. derivatives regulator has sent a subpoena to two of the world's largest cryptocurrency platforms, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as watchdogs globally increase their scrutiny of the emerging asset class. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a subpoena on Dec. 6 to both Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Tether, a company that issues a virtual currency, the person said, wishing to remain anonymous because the matter is private. Regulators send subpoenas in order to gather information into a range of inquiries. Reuters could not ascertain what information the CFTC requested from Bitfinex and Tether, or if the CFTC was formally investigating the cryptocurrency platforms. Donna Faulk White, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, declined to comment. A spokesman for Bitfinex and Tether, which are affiliated with each other, said in a statement: "We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations. It is our policy not to comment on any such requests." The subpoena was first reported by Bloomberg. Bitfinex is an online platform that enables traders to buy and sell virtual currencies such as bitcoin and ether. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world by trading volume, it is owned by a British Virgin Islands company and does not have a head office, Reuters reported in September. Bitfinex is affiliated with Tether, a company that issues virtual coins that it says are pegged to the U.S. dollar and can be used in the cryptocurrency market as a substitute for the dollar. The CFTC has been increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrencies over the past few months, an emerging asset class that it has said is highly vulnerable to manipulation and fraudsters. Earlier this month the regulator sued three virtual currency operators for misappropriating investor funds which it said had falsely claimed to be investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In June 2016 the CFTC fined Bitfinex $75,000 for offering "illegal" cryptocurrency transactions and failing to register as a futures commission merchant. A few months later hackers stole 119,756 bitcoins from Bitfinex. Bitcoin was trading at around $10,000 on Tuesday. (Reporting by Michelle Price and Anna Irrera; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
[Social Media Buzz]
The next pump will be in LESS THAN ONE HOUR
(21:00 GMT+1)
Join the telegram to know the coin: http://t.me/AsianPumpWhales
BINANCE
$etc $eth $neo $ada $xrp $xlm $doge $zcl $sc $hmq $xvg $ltc #binance #crypto #bittrex #kucoin #pump #btc #cryptopia || 09:00 saati Binance Borsasında (BTC - Bandında)
En Çok Yükselen 5 :
$LSK : %18.14
$ELF : %1.59
$SALT : %1.33
$WABI : %1.29
$ZEC : %1.05
En Çok Düşen 5 :
$TRIG : %-4.18
$VIBE : %-3.00
$MTH : %-1.68
$REQ : %-0.96
$SNGLS : %-0.87...
|
9170.54, 8830.75, 9174.91, 8277.01, 6955.27, 7754.00, 7621.30, 8265.59, 8736.98, 8621.90
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2016-08-07]\nVolume: 82398400, RSI (14-day): 40.49, 50-day EMA: 625(...TRUNCATED) |
591.05, 587.80, 592.10, 589.12, 587.56, 585.59, 570.47, 567.24, 577.44, 573.22
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2016-05-11]\nVolume: 50605200, RSI (14-day): 54.52, 50-day EMA: 439(...TRUNCATED) |
454.77, 455.67, 455.67, 457.57, 454.16, 453.78, 454.62, 438.71, 442.68, 443.19
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2020-05-05]\nVolume: 43148462663, RSI (14-day): 74.20, 50-day EMA: (...TRUNCATED) |
9268.76, 9951.52, 9842.67, 9593.90, 8756.43, 8601.80, 8804.48, 9269.99, 9733.72, 9328.20
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2016-10-06]\nVolume: 56812100, RSI (14-day): 57.65, 50-day EMA: 605(...TRUNCATED) |
617.12, 619.11, 616.75, 618.99, 641.07, 636.19, 636.79, 640.38, 638.65, 641.63
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2015-05-13]\nVolume: 27180100, RSI (14-day): 49.53, 50-day EMA: 239(...TRUNCATED) |
236.93, 237.60, 236.15, 236.80, 233.13, 231.95, 234.02, 235.34, 240.35, 238.87
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2019-03-06]\nVolume: 9175291529, RSI (14-day): 56.37, 50-day EMA: 3(...TRUNCATED) |
3911.48, 3901.13, 3963.31, 3951.60, 3905.23, 3909.16, 3906.72, 3924.37, 3960.91, 4048.73
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2019-07-07]\nVolume: 19369044277, RSI (14-day): 57.33, 50-day EMA: (...TRUNCATED) |
12285.96, 12573.81, 12156.51, 11358.66, 11815.99, 11392.38, 10256.06, 10895.09, 9477.64, 9693.80
|
"Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices(...TRUNCATED) | "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2016-11-30]\nVolume: 84070800, RSI (14-day): 60.55, 50-day EMA: 702(...TRUNCATED) |
756.77, 777.94, 771.16, 773.87, 758.70, 764.22, 768.13, 770.81, 772.79, 774.65
|
End of preview. Expand
in Data Studio
YAML Metadata
Warning:
empty or missing yaml metadata in repo card
(https://huggingface.co/docs/hub/datasets-cards)
tags:
financial-forecasting
time-series
instruction-tuning
bitcoin
finance license: apache-2.0
Bitcoin Price Prediction Instruction Dataset This dataset is designed for fine-tuning language models to predict Bitcoin's daily closing prices. Each sample provides a rich context of historical market data, recent news, and social media sentiment, formatted into an instruction-based prompt structure. The goal is to train models that can understand and synthesize diverse data sources to make financial forecasts.
Dataset Description The core task is to predict the next 10 days of Bitcoin's closing prices based on the previous 90 days of market data and the context available on a given day. The dataset is structured for instruction fine-tuning, with instruction, input, and output fields.
The context provided in the input field is a multi-source snapshot of the market, including:
Technical Analysis: Historical prices and key indicators (RSI, EMAs) for Bitcoin.
Wider Market Context: Daily prices and RSI for Gold (GC=F) and Crude Oil (CL=F) to capture broader market sentiment.
Recent News: A summary of up to 20 relevant news headlines and descriptions from the 7 days prior to the prediction date.
Social Media Buzz: A sample of social media posts mentioning Bitcoin to gauge public sentiment.
Data Sources Market Data: Daily closing prices, volume, and technical indicators for BTC-USD, Gold Futures (GC=F), and WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL=F) were fetched using the yfinance library.
News Articles: Sourced from the edaschau/bitcoin_news dataset on Hugging Face, providing a large corpus of historical news.
Social Media Posts: Sourced from the gauravduttakiit/bitcoin-tweets-16m-tweets-with-sentiment-tagged dataset on Kaggle.
How to Use The dataset is provided in JSON format and can be loaded directly using the datasets library.
from datasets import load_dataset
Load the dataset from the Hugging Face Hub
repo_id = "YourUsername/bitcoin-prediction-context-dataset" # <-- Replace with your repo ID dataset = load_dataset(repo_id)
Access the training split
train_data = dataset['train']
Print the first sample
print(train_data[0])
Data Structure The dataset is split into train.json and validation.json. Each entry in these files is a JSON object with the following fields:
instruction: (string) - A directive for the language model. It includes the task description and a list of the previous 90 days of Bitcoin closing prices.
input: (string) - The context the model should use to make its prediction. This multi-line string is formatted with clear headings:
[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for YYYY-MM-DD]: Contains the trading volume, 14-day RSI, and the price's position relative to the 50-day and 200-day EMAs for the current day.
[Wider Market Context]: Contains the closing prices and RSI for Gold and Crude Oil.
[Recent News (last 7 days)]: A summary of up to 20 news headlines and their descriptions from the previous week.
[Social Media Buzz]: A sample of up to 10 concatenated social media posts from the current day.
output: (string) - The ground truth for the prediction. This is a comma-separated string of the next 10 days of Bitcoin's closing prices.
Example Data Point { "instruction": "Given the historical Bitcoin prices from the last 90 days, predict the next 10 daily closing prices. The historical prices are: 47496.81, 47178.12, ..., 42244.52.", "input": "[Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 2021-03-31]\nVolume: 55625901357, RSI (14-day): 58.63, 50-day EMA: 53776.34, 200-day EMA: 34887.91\n\n[Wider Market Context]\nGold Price: 1707.00, Gold RSI: 48.21\nOil Price: 59.16, Oil RSI: 45.89\n\n[Recent News (last 7 days)]\nGoldman Sachs Is Said to Be Close to Offering Bitcoin to Its Richest Clients: The bank is aiming to begin offering investments in the emerging asset class in the second quarter, according to a person familiar with the matter.... || Another major Wall Street player is looking to get into bitcoin....\n\n[Social Media Buzz]\n#Bitcoin is the future of money! To the moon! 🚀... || I'm selling all my BTC, this is getting too volatile....", "output": "59095.81, 59793.24, 60199.96, 58137.81, 58778.18, 58245.00, 56048.44, 57845.23, 58347.37, 59729.89" }
Citation If you use this dataset in your research, please consider citing it:
@misc{your_name_2025_bitcoin_prediction, author = {Your Name}, title = {Bitcoin Price Prediction Instruction Dataset}, year = {2025}, publisher = {Hugging Face}, journal = {Hugging Face repository}, howpublished = {\url{https://huggingface.co/datasets/YourUsername/bitcoin-prediction-context-dataset}}, }
Disclaimer: This dataset is intended for research and educational purposes only. Financial markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not use models trained on this data for actual financial trading.
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