The battle to succeed Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua should he be impeached from office has now been touted as a two-horse race between Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.

*Nation* has established that the two high-ranking members of the Executive have emerged as the front runners for the position ahead of the Senate vote on Mr Gachagua’s ouster motion on Thursday.

At least 282 MPs last week voted in support of the motion against 44 who favoured the country’s second in command, and this Thursday, the Senate is also expected to take a vote on the same.

Mr Gachagua already appears to have lost hope in the Senate owing to last week’s voting pattern in the National Assembly after he said he was banking on the Judiciary during a Sunday service in Embu.

Prof Kindiki’s and Mr Mudavadi’s names have emerged prominently in the Kenya Kwanza corridors of power as Mr Gachagua’s potential replacements.

The discussion on the DP’s replacement is taking shape with a majority of leaders from Mt Kenya region, who favour his ouster, pushing for a leader from the region to be considered for the post.

There is anticipation of a vicious backlash in the region should Mr Gachagua lose the post.

Prior to the tabling of the motion in Parliament, several elected leaders from Mt Kenya region and its ‘diaspora’ had declared Prof Kindiki, who hails from Mt Kenya East, as their spokesperson, eclipsing Mr Gachagua from the role.

They argued that the absence of a centralised representative had hindered efforts to advance the region’s agenda.

“Given the prevailing state of affairs and the urgency of the mission ahead, there is need to have a link that will create a nexus between us and the Executive on development matters,” the MPs said in a joint statement, signalling their endorsement of Prof Kindiki as the region’s supremo.

The endorsement mirrored a pre-election support for Prof Kindiki, where he is said to have received majority support from Mt Kenya region leaders to be Dr Ruto’s running mate in the 2022 election, but the then deputy president settled on Mr Gachagua as his best bet.

Prof Kindiki’s candidacy appears to have been buttressed by the recent opinion polls by two leading pollsters – Infotrak and Tifa, which have put him ahead of the pack.

While Infotrak research shows that 20 percent of Kenyans polled prefer the Interior CS to replace DP Gachagua, Tifa ranked him even higher at 37 percent.

“Most of Kenyans listed expertise and experience as the reasons why they chose their candidates, with Kindiki leading in this area,” the Infotrak research showed.

For Tifa; “Most Kenyans expect Interior CS Kithure Kindiki to fill the vacancy if the current DP is removed, with this expectation being particularly strong among residents of the Mt Kenya region.”

However, Tifa clarified that the survey did not measure the overall popularity of potential replacements for Mr Gachagua.

“The interior CS as the senior most leader from Mt Kenya region is best placed to replace Gachagua to pacify the region and try to offer lifeline to the region’s MPs who voted to send the DP home. Should Mt Kenya fail to secure the post, elected leaders from the region will face serious backlash from their electorate for persecuting their son (Gachagua) and failing to have one of their own replace him at the top,” a source from government told *Nation.*

But the official further added that; “There are also other considerations on Mr Mudavadi’s candidacy. Those who favour him feel that as the third senior-most member of the Executive with vast experience in government, he deserves elevation to the DP post.”

The official said should Mr Mudavadi get the slot, then Mt Kenya, preferably Prof Kindiki, should be given the Prime Cabinet post and also retain his powerful interior docket.

Both Interior and Foreign Affairs ministries are key in the Executive, as both officeholders sit in the powerful National Security Council.

Article 240 of the constitution established the National Security Council, consisting of the President, Deputy President, three cabinet secretaries in charge Defense, Foreign Affairs and Internal security, as well as the Attorney-General, Chief of Kenya Defence Forces, Director-General of the National Intelligence Service, and the Inspector-General of the National Police Service.

Political analyst cum governance expert Javas Bigambo argues that recapturing the support of Mt Kenya for President Ruto is not necessarily a foreclosed matter.

“It will require possibly picking another leader from the Kikuyu fiefdom to replace Rigathi Gachagua, one who can counter Gachagua's bile-induced politics and agility.

“If not, he will need strategies to divide the Kikuyu vote, disintegrate the Gema, and ensure absolute support from Western Kenya by picking a Luhya Deputy President,” Mr Bigambo told Nation.

Another political analyst, Richard Bosire, opines that Mr Gachagua’s removal from office does not make Mt Kenya region the automatic beneficiary of his DP post, adding that the president has a latitude to appoint any Kenyan to hold the position.

“It is a mirage to say the DP post is a preserve of the mountain. We cannot keep on recycling regions in the Executive. This will be the best opportunity to have a deputy president from another region instead of recycling two regions in the leadership of this country,” he said.

DAP-Kenya deputy party leader Ayub Savula said that from the look of things, “the die is cast and Gachagua is headed home.”

He noted that since the post belongs to Mt Kenya region, it is only fair to return favour to the region to avoid further divisions in government.

“Let this thing (DP post) go to Kindiki. The position belongs to Mt Kenya and the best person to take it is Prof Kindiki. He is far better than Gachagua. He has succeeded in the Interior docket and deserves elevation,” Mr Savula told* Nation.*