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400 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 14 | Increases in the frequency and/or the intensity of heavy rainfall have been observed in East and West Southern Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region | medium | 1 | train |
401 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 15 | Increasing trends in river flood occurrence can be identified beyond 1980 in East and West Southern Africa (medium confidence) and Western Africa | high | 2 | train |
402 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 17 | Over West Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel subregion and increase along the Guinea Coast subregion | medium | 1 | train |
403 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 18 | Rainfall is projected to increase over Eastern Africa | medium | 1 | train |
404 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 20 | Trends towards increased hydrological droughts have been observed in the Mediterranean (high confidence) and Western Africa | medium | 1 | train |
405 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 21 | These trends correspond with projected regional increases in aridity and fire weather conditions | high | 2 | train |
406 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 23 | Over Western Africa and Southern Africa, a future significant increase in wind speed and wind energy potential is projected | medium | 1 | train |
407 | AR6_WGI | 151 | 24 | There is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, East Southern Africa and East Africa | medium | 1 | train |
408 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 1 | Additional regional changes in Asia, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include historical trends of annual precipitation that show considerable regional differences | high | 2 | train |
409 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 2 | East Asian Monsoon precipitation has changed, with drying in the north and wetting in the south since the 1950s, and annual mean precipitation totals very likely have increased over most territories of North Asia since the mid-1970s | high | 2 | train |
410 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 3 | South Asian summer monsoon precipitation decreased over several areas since the mid-20th century | high | 2 | train |
411 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 5 | Aridity in East and West Central Asia is projected to increase, especially beyond the middle of the 21st century and global warming levels beyond 2°C | medium | 1 | train |
412 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 6 | Fire weather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify everywhere except South East Asia, Tibetan Plateau and Arabian Peninsula | medium | 1 | train |
413 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 7 | Surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia | high | 2 | train |
414 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 8 | Over North Asia, increases in permafrost temperature and its thawing have been observed over recent decades | high | 2 | train |
415 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 9 | Future projections indicate continuing decline in seasonal snow duration, glacial mass, and permafrost area by mid-century | high | 2 | test |
416 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 10 | Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease in most regions of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21st century, and snowline elevations will rise | high | 2 | train |
417 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 11 | Heavy snowfall is increasing in East Asia and North Asia | medium | 1 | train |
418 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 16 | Daily precipitation extremes have increased over part of the region | high | 2 | train |
419 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 17 | Extreme hydrological drought frequency has increased in a region extending from south-west to north-east China, with projected increases of agricultural and ecological drought for 4°C GWL and fire weather for 2°C and above | medium | 1 | test |
420 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 19 | Concurrently, total soil moisture is projected to decline extensively | medium | 1 | train |
421 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 21 | The frequency of heavy precipitation and flood events has increased over several areas during the last few decades | medium | 1 | train |
422 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 23 | Most of the region has experienced an increase in rainfall intensity but with a reduced number of wet days | medium | 1 | train |
423 | AR6_WGI | 154 | 24 | Rainfall is projected to increase in the northern parts of South East Asia and decrease in areas in the Maritime Continent | medium | 1 | train |
424 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 1 | Since the mid 1980’s, there has been an increase in the number and intensification rate of intense TCs (medium confidence), with a significant north-westward shift in tracks and a northward shift in their average latitude, increasing exposure over East China, the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Archipelago | medium | 1 | train |
425 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 5 | Heavy snowfall is projected to occur more frequently in some parts of Japan | medium | 1 | train |
426 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 9 | More than 60% of glacier mass in the Caucasus is projected to disappear under RCP8.5 emissions by the end of the 21st century | medium | 1 | train |
427 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 13 | This will contribute to more frequent coastal flooding and higher ETWL in low-lying areas and coastal erosion along sandy beaches | high | 2 | train |
428 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 16 | Agricultural and ecological droughts and hydrological droughts have increased over Southern Australia (medium confidence), and meteorological droughts have decreased over Northern and Central Australia | medium | 1 | train |
429 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 17 | Relative sea level has increased over the period 1993–2018 at a rate higher than GMSL around Australasia | high | 2 | train |
430 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 20 | Agricultural and ecological droughts are projected to increase in Southern and Eastern Australia | medium | 1 | train |
431 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 21 | Fire weather is projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
432 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 22 | Snowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (medium confidence), with glaciers receding in New Zealand | high | 2 | train |
433 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 26 | Annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in the south and west of New Zealand (medium confidence) and is projected to decrease in south-west Southern Australia (high confidence), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and in the north and east of New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
434 | AR6_WGI | 155 | 28 | Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in Southern Australia (high confidence in south-west Southern Australia), Eastern Australia (medium confidence) and in the north and east of New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
435 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 1 | TCs in north-eastern and north Australia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) but increase in intensity except for ‘east coast lows’ | low | 0 | train |
436 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 6 | The present day 1-in-100-year ETWL is between 0.5–2.5 m around most of Australia, except the north-western coast where 1-in-100-year ETWL can be as high as 6–7 m. {Box 9.1, 12.3.1.5, 12.4.3.5} TS.4.3.2.4 Central and South America Additional regional changes in Central and South America, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include increases in mean and extreme precipitation in South- Eastern South America since the 1960s | high | 2 | train |
437 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 7 | Decreasing trends in mean precipitation and increasing trends in agricultural and ecological drought are observed over North-Eastern South America | medium | 1 | train |
438 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 8 | The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and pluvial floods is projected to increase over South-Eastern South America, Southern South America, Northern South America, South American Monsoon and North-Eastern South America | medium | 1 | train |
439 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 9 | Increases of agricultural and ecological drought are projected in South America Monsoon and Southern South America, and fire weather is projected to increase over several regions (Northern South America, the South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South America and South-Western South America) | high | 2 | train |
440 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 21 | Increased mean precipitation amounts at high latitudes in boreal winter and reduced summer precipitation in southern Europe are projected starting from a 2°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
441 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 22 | Aridity, agricultural and hydrological droughts and fire weather conditions will increase in the Mediterranean region starting from 2°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
442 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 23 | Pluvial flooding will increase everywhere with high confidence except for medium confidence in the Mediterranean; in Western and Central Europe this also applies to river flooding starting from a 2°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
443 | AR6_WGI | 156 | 24 | Most periglacial processes in Northern Europe are projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century, even for a low warming scenario | medium | 1 | train |
444 | AR6_WGI | 157 | 3 | In the European Mediterranean, the magnitude and sign of observed land precipitation trends depend on time period and exact study region | medium | 1 | train |
445 | AR6_WGI | 157 | 7 | The frequency of Medicanes (tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean) is projected to decrease | medium | 1 | train |
446 | AR6_WGI | 157 | 16 | Severe wind storms, tropical cyclones and dust storms in North America are shifting toward more extreme characteristics (medium confidence), and both observations and projections point to strong changes in the seasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions in the coming decades | very high | 3 | train |
447 | AR6_WGI | 157 | 24 | Mean wind speed and wind power potential are projected to decrease in Western North America | high | 2 | train |
448 | AR6_WGI | 157 | 26 | At sustained GWLs between 3°C and 5°C, nearly all glacial mass in Western Canada and Western North America will disappear | medium | 1 | train |
449 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 4 | Fewer but more intense tropical cyclones are projected starting from a 2°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
450 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 8 | Higher evapotranspiration under a warming climate can partially offset future increases or amplify future reductions in rainfall, resulting in increased aridity as well as more severe agricultural and ecological drought in the Caribbean | medium | 1 | train |
451 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 11 | Shoreline retreat is projected along sandy coasts of most small islands | high | 2 | train |
452 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 13 | An intensification of the polar water cycle will increase mean precipitation, with precipitation intensity becoming stronger and more likely to be rainfall rather than snowfall | high | 2 | train |
453 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 14 | Permafrost warming, loss of seasonal snow cover, and glacier melt will be widespread | high | 2 | train |
454 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 16 | Relative sea level and coastal flooding are projected to increase in areas other than regions with substantial land uplift | medium | 1 | train |
455 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 23 | In the Arctic, this will result in higher river flood potential and earlier meltwater flooding, altering seasonal characteristics of flooding | high | 2 | train |
456 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 24 | A lengthening of the fire season (medium confidence) and encroachment of fire regimes into tundra regions | high | 2 | train |
457 | AR6_WGI | 158 | 27 | Permafrost warming and thawing have been widespread in the Arctic since the 1980s | high | 2 | train |
458 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 2 | The Pacific and Southern Ocean are projected to freshen and the Atlantic to become more saline | medium | 1 | train |
459 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 3 | Anthropogenic warming is very likely to further decrease ocean oxygen concentrations, and this deoxygenation is expected to persist for thousands of years | medium | 1 | train |
460 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 4 | Arctic sea ice losses are projected to continue, leading to a practically ice-free Arctic in September by the end of the 21st century under high CO 2 emissions scenarios | high | 2 | train |
461 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 7 | Global warming of 2°C above 1850–1900 levels would result in the exceedance of numerous hazard thresholds for pathogens, seagrasses, mangroves, kelp forests, rocky shores, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems | medium | 1 | train |
462 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 16 | These include biodiversity hot spots that will very likely see even more extreme heat and droughts, mountain areas where a projected raising in the freezing level height will alter snow and ice conditions (high confidence), and tropical forests that are increasingly prone to fire weather | medium | 1 | train |
463 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 21 | Extreme precipitation is projected to increase in major mountainous regions (medium to high confidence depending on location), with potential cascading consequences of floods, landslides and lake outbursts in all scenarios | medium | 1 | train |
464 | AR6_WGI | 159 | 23 | Water cycle changes bring prolonged drought, longer dry seasons and increased fire weather to many tropical forests | medium | 1 | train |
465 | AR6_WGI | 160 | 2 | With global warming, increasing relative sea level compounded by increasing tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding | high | 2 | train |
466 | AR6_WGI | 160 | 3 | Arctic coastal settlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice retreat | high | 2 | train |
467 | AR6_WGI | 160 | 4 | Improvements in urban climate modelling and climate monitoring networks have contributed to understanding the mutual interaction between regional and urban climate | high | 2 | test |
468 | AR6_WGI | 160 | 7 | Compared to present day, large implications are expected from the combination of future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, with more hot days and warm nights adding to heat stress in cities | very high | 3 | train |
469 | AR6_WGI | 166 | 11 | However, the NDCs submitted as of 2020 are insufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to be consistent with trajectories limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels | high | 2 | train |
470 | AR6_WGI | 166 | 24 | There was likely a net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0 –0.3 W m–2 in 1850 –1900 relative to 1750 | medium | 1 | train |
471 | AR6_WGI | 166 | 27 | At the current level of global warming, an observed signal of temperature change relative to the 1850–1900 baseline has emerged above the levels of background variability over virtually all land regions | high | 2 | train |
472 | AR6_WGI | 167 | 1 | Accordingly, the signal of change is more apparent in tropical regions than in regions with greater warming but larger interannual variations | high | 2 | train |
473 | AR6_WGI | 167 | 6 | Scientific knowledge interacts with pre-existing conceptions of weather and climate, including values and beliefs stemming from ethnic or national identity, traditions, religion or lived relationships to land and sea | high | 2 | train |
474 | AR6_WGI | 167 | 8 | Social values may guide certain choices made during the construction, assessment and communication of information | high | 2 | train |
475 | AR6_WGI | 167 | 13 | In addition, paleoclimate archives such as mid-latitude and tropical glaciers, as well as modern natural archives used for calibration (e.g., corals and trees), are rapidly disappearing due to a host of pressures, including increasing temperatures | high | 2 | train |
476 | AR6_WGI | 167 | 27 | The broader availability of ensemble model simulations has contributed to better estimations of uncertainty in projections of future change | high | 2 | train |
477 | AR6_WGI | 184 | 21 | These diverse, more local understandings can both contrast with and enrich the planetary-scale analyses of global climate science | high | 2 | train |
478 | AR6_WGI | 184 | 30 | In summary, environmental and socio- altruistic values are the most significant influences on public opinion about climate change globally, while political views, political party affiliation, and corporate influence also had strong effects, especially in the USA | high | 2 | train |
479 | AR6_WGI | 186 | 11 | Statement of factCertain/factLikelihood outcome66% 90% Likely range Very likely rangeProbability LikelyVery likelyExtremely likelyCumulative probability 66%90%95% Examples of assessments Assessed evidence and agreement Past projections of global temperature and the pattern of warming are broadly consistent with subsequent observations (limited evidence, high agreement) {1.3.6}.Assessed confidence The probability of low-likelihood, high impact outcomes increases with higher global warming levels | high | 2 | train |
480 | AR6_WGI | 186 | 15 | The AR6 assessed best estimate is 3°C with a likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C | high | 2 | train |
481 | AR6_WGI | 187 | 10 | In summary, the calibrated language cannot entirely prevent misunderstandings, including a tendency to systematically underestimate the probability of the IPCC’s higher-likelihood conclusions and overestimate the probability of the lower-likelihood ones | high | 2 | train |
482 | AR6_WGI | 188 | 26 | These approaches are more effective when combined with other policies and tailored to the motivations, capabilities and resources of specific actors and contexts (high confidence).’ These extended dialogic co-production and education processes have thus been demonstrated to improve the quality of both scientific information and governance | high | 2 | train |
483 | AR6_WGI | 189 | 17 | We thus assess that specific characteristics of media coverage play a major role in climate understanding and perception | high | 2 | train |
484 | AR6_WGI | 192 | 4 | The AR5 WGI assessed that the pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era | high | 2 | train |
485 | AR6_WGI | 193 | 6 | This thermal expansion, along with glacier mass loss, were the dominant contributors to GMSL rise during the 20th century | high | 2 | train |
486 | AR6_WGI | 193 | 21 | In summary, these data allowed AR5 WGI to assess that over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent | high | 2 | train |
487 | AR6_WGI | 194 | 19 | The AR5 WGI (IPCC, 2013b) used paleoclimatic evidence to put recent warming and sea level rise in a multi-century perspective and assessed that 1983–2012 was likely to have been the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere | medium | 1 | train |
488 | AR6_WGI | 194 | 20 | The AR5 also assessed that the rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia | high | 2 | train |
489 | AR6_WGI | 197 | 2 | Overall, AR5 assessed that total aerosol effects, including cloud adjustments, resulted in a negative RF of –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] W m−2 (medium confidence), offsetting a substantial portion of the positive RF resulting from the increase in GHGs | high | 2 | train |
490 | AR6_WGI | 198 | 17 | Similarly, over the period 1993–2010, when observations of all sea level components were available, AR5 WGI assessed the observed global mean sea level rise to be consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion (due to warming) combined with changes in glaciers, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and land-water storage | high | 2 | train |
491 | AR6_WGI | 198 | 27 | In response, AR5 WGI made a specific assessment for how global surface temperature was projected to evolve over the next two decades, concluding that the change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range of 0.3°C–0.7°C | medium | 1 | train |
492 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 7 | For the period 2006–2015, observed global mean surface temperature (GMST7) was 0.87°C ± 0.12°C higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period | very high | 3 | train |
493 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 8 | Anthropogenic global warming was estimated to be increasing at 0.2 ± 0.1°C per decade | high | 2 | train |
494 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 10 | This observed warming has already led to increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes in many regions and seasons, including heat waves in most land regions (high confidence), increased droughts in some regions (medium confidence), and increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events at the global scale | medium | 1 | train |
495 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 11 | These climate changes have contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions | high | 2 | train |
496 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 12 | Increased urbanization can enhance warming in cities and their surroundings (heat island effect), especially during heat waves (high confidence), and intensify extreme rainfall | medium | 1 | train |
497 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 15 | Over the period 1982–2016, marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency and are increasing in intensity | very high | 3 | test |
498 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 16 | In addition, the surface ocean acidified further (virtually certain) and loss of oxygen occurred from the surface to a depth of 1000 m | medium | 1 | train |
499 | AR6_WGI | 203 | 23 | Feedbacks from the loss of summer sea ice and spring snow cover on land have contributed to amplified warming in the Arctic | high | 2 | train |
Subsets and Splits