NEW DELHI: BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would win 211-231 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, a survey conducted in 18 big states across India by CNN-IBN and CSDS-Lokniti has predicted. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance was predicted to win 107-127 seats, while regional parties were expected to retain their states.BJP's Narendra Modi was the most preferred choice for prime minister, with 34% support, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi gained the support of 15% of those surveyed, while AAP 's Arvind Kejriwal secured 3% votes. Notably, 27% refused to disclose their PM choice.The survey conducted in the first two weeks of January said Congress president Sonia Gandhi secured 5% votes, PM Manmohan Singh 3%, Mayawati 2%, Mulayam Singh 2% and Nitish Kumar and LK Advani a per cent each. Narendra Modi had leads across caste segments, including Dalits, with 48% among upper castes backing him. Rahul Gandhi managed only 11% among upper castes.Among Other Backward Castes, Modi secured 39% support against Rahul's 12%. 24% of Dalit voters backed Modi, against 16% for Rahul Gandhi. Modi's popularity among Tribals, as per the survey, was 31% against 22% for Rahul Gandhi. Among Muslims 11% backed Modi and 31% backed Rahul Gandhi.In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the India Today-CVoter poll projects that the BJP will win 30 of the state's 80 seats, the BSP 24 and SP 20. The CNN-IBN-CSDS poll gives the BJP between 41 and 49 seats, BSP 10-16 and SP 8-14. Both agree that the Congress will decline drastically from the 21 seats it won last time in UP.Similarly, while the CVoter poll sees the JD(U) getting nearly wiped out in Bihar, with just four seats, the CSDS poll gives Nitish's party anything between 7 ands 13 seats. Both give the BJP the bulk of Bihar's 40 seats but disagree on the distribution of the rest, primarily between RJD and JD(U).In Tamil Nadu, too, while the CVoter poll gives the AIADMK a decisive edge with 29 of the state's 39 seats, the CSDS poll sees Jayalalityhaa's party winning between 15 and 23 seats. In Kerala, CVoter suggests the Left has the edge in a close contest while CSDS feels the Congress-led UDF is well ahead.One of the regional parties on which both polls agree is the Trinamool Congress, with CVoter giving Mamata's party 23 of West Bengal's 42 seats and CSDS saying it could win between 20 and 28 seats. Either way, it would improve on its tally of 19 in 2009 and could end up being the third largest party in the Lok Sabha after the BJP and Congress. Whether Mamata would be able to leverage this gain in seats could be another matter.