In their 2013 research paper “The Loser’s Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft,” Cade Massey and Richard H. Thaler found that the likelihood of one player performing better than the next player chosen at his position was 52 percent.



“Across all rounds, all positions, all years, the chance that a player proves to be better than the next-best alternative is only slightly better than a coin flip,” they wrote.



The NFL Draft is hard. Teams spend significant resources on scouting players, breaking down film, researching backgrounds and conducting interviews. Yet they miss often. Look no further than the 2017 draft. The Bears traded up to No. 2 for Mitchell Trubisky, and there’s a good chance he won’t even be their starter in 2020. The Jaguars took Leonard Fournette with the fourth overall pick and are now looking to unload him. John Ross went ninth to the Bengals, and he has 716 total...