The Australian icebreaker, Aurora Australis, was thwarted on Monday in its initial attempts to reach the MV Akademik Shokalskiy, the scientific research vessel stuck in sea ice off the coast of Antarctica since Christmas Day. It will now wait for better weather before making a further attempt to cut through the thick pack ice around the Shokalskiy.

The Aurora Australis arrived at the edge of the sea ice surrounding the Shokalskiy – 20 nautical miles from the Russian-operated ship – in the early hours of 30 December, local time. Its attempt to cut through had to be called off soon after, due to poor visibility caused by the overnight build-up of snow and fog.

"The Aurora has tried coming in and got a little way into the pack ice, about two nautical miles, but because visibility was so low and the pack was so thick, it decided it was more sensible to go back out to open water and it has done so, as has the Chinese icebreaker vessel, the Xue Long," said Chris Turney, leader of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition (AAE). The Aurora Australis is now waiting 22 nautical miles south-east of the Shokalskiy.

The weather in the area warmed up on Monday, although it has remained windy and visibility has not improved enough for another attempt by the Australian icebreaker.

"The next thing is to wait for the weather to clear a bit so that the Aurora Australis can see its route through, to see the leads and gaps where you might be able to best attack the sea ice," said Turney. "If that fails, we're looking at the possibility of a helicopter evacuation of at least the science expedition and its members, though the crew will probably stay onboard."

The evacuation would probably take place using the Xue Long's helicopter, which would land on helipads cleared out on the ice floes next to the Shokalskiy and the Aurora Australis.

Another option for rescue lays with the huge American icebreaker, the Polar Star, which is currently en route to the Ross Sea from Seattle. It had been due to travel via Sydney but it has now been ordered to sail directly to its final destination. If it was called upon to assist in the rescue effort, it could get to the sea ice edge near the Shokalskiy in eight or nine days.

There is no fixed timeline for the next steps, said Turney, while the captains of the Shokalskiy, Aurora Australis and the Xue Long waited for good weather. The forecast for the next few days, however, looks like there will be more of the same: snow, wind and heavy cloud.

AAE glaciologists on board the Shokalskiy, meanwhile, have been examining satellite images of the ice build-up over the past week to try and understand why the Shokalskiy got stuck.

"It's remarkable just how much change there's been," said Turney. "The ice that's packed around us is many years old, some is more than 10 years old."

The multi-year sea ice surrounding the Shokalskiy is much thicker and stronger than the new, first-year sea ice because it has had years of snowfall on top and freezing underneath.

According to the satellite maps, this ice was on the east side of the Mertz glacier until this past week, stuck fast to the land. Possibly because of a storm, or some other weather factor, this "fast ice" broke off and was blown into the area in which the Shokalskiy was sailing. Multi-year ice is a lot more difficult to cut through than single-year ice, which was the sort of material the Shokalskiy came through on its way into Antarctica.

"It wasn't just a freak storm we were caught in," said Turney. "It was a massive blowout of sea ice that trapped us."

The fast ice was partly in the area because of the huge iceberg, B09B. This broke away from the Antarctic continent in 2010, collided with and snapped off the extended part of the Mertz glacier, and then grounded itself in the entrance to Commonwealth Bay. Since then, the sea ice that would normally have formed and blown out to sea has instead been blocked by B09B and frozen into place.

Given the recent reorganisation of the ice around the Mertz glacier, glaciologists aboard the Shokalskiy think the ship might have become inadvertently caught in the formation of a new area of fast ice, which could stay in place for several years.

When it got stuck last week, the Shokalskiy was just over two weeks into its month-long journey, from Bluff in New Zealand to Commonwealth Bay in East Antarctica, following in the footsteps of the great Antarctic explorer and scientist Douglas Mawson. He led the original AAE of 1911, and the modern incarnation intended to repeat his wildlife, ocean and weather observations to build a picture of how this part of the world had changed over the past 100 years.

The Shokalskiy has around 50 passengers – including scientists and paying members of the public – and 20 crew on board. It became stuck in the ice near Cape de la Motte in East Antarctica, around 1,500 nautical miles from Hobart in Tasmania, after strong blizzards hit the vessel on Christmas Eve.