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Table Power

This rating method combines points per game with the quality of opposition played (also measured in points per game). It’s blind to home/away splits as well as scoring margin. The goal is to project a final table based on the games already played.

USL East power rankings:

Indy Eleven (+1) – 71.57 projected points New York Red Bulls II (+1) – 68.61 points Tampa Bay Rowdies (-2) – 68.24 points Nashville SC (+1) – 60.80 points North Carolina (+1) – 59.07 points Ottawa Fury (-2) – 57.61 points Charleston Battery (+2) – 52.53 points Saint Louis (-1) – 51.33 points Louisville City (-1) – 50.84 points Pittsburgh Riverhounds – 46.50 points Bethlehem Steel (+3) – 36.49 points Loudoun United (+1) – 33.01 points Atlanta United 2 (-1) – 31.82 points Birmingham Legion (-3) – 30.45 points Charlotte Independence (+2) – 27.86 points Memphis 901 (-1) – 27.47 points Hartford Athletic (-1) – 22.65 points Swope Park Rangers (-2) – 19.83 points

Tampa’s second-straight week of dropping points at home – this time a draw against Charleston – takes the Rowdies out of the top spot for the first time since they ascended to that position in the May 20 edition of the rankings (honestly, feels like they’d been on top longer). Indy’s climb to the top has been a slow burn, sort of like a lot of their games, but they’re a deserving No. 1.

The other big change near the top was a drop from Ottawa after only managing a draw against Memphis – and at home, though this rating method doesn’t take that into account (and the other didn’t consider it a particularly poor result).

Saint Louis saw a big drop – just one position, but more than six projected points – after a loss to Bethlehem. That also saw the Steel climb to the top of the also-ran pile, which still has a pretty significant gap between the group and the top 10 in the table (playoff teams) with a gap of over 10 projected points between the two Pennsylvania sides right along the Mendoza line.

It’s certainly still possible, with more than half a season to play, that major form changes occur. But the top ten and bottom eight have been constant since May 6. Switching of positions within those groups, certainly, but no moving into or our of the playoff positions from anyone. I would expect it stays that way for at least a little longer, and possibly the entire season (though certainly some sides will make a run or find a poor stretch of form).

USL West power rankings

El Paso Locomotive – 64.57 points Phoenix Rising – 61.45 points Portland Timbers 2 (+1) – 56.81 points New Mexico United (-1) – 54.59 projected points Sacramento Republic (+1) – 54.22 points Fresno FC (-1) – 54.22 projected points Reno 1868 – 54.02 points OKC Energy (+1) – 50.36 points Austin Bold (-1) – 46.98 points Orange County – 44.09 points Real Monarchs – 42.94 points Rio Grande Valley (+1) – 41.77 points Las Vegas Lights (+1) – 41.70 points Tulsa Roughnecks (-2) – 38.89 points LA Galaxy II – 35.19 points San Antonio – 32.80 points Colorado Springs Switchbacks (-1) – 31.99 points Tacoma Defiance – 20.03 points

The West was a little more calm this week, the major notable item a continuation of the past couple weeks’ slide from New Mexico United. Certainly it’s possible this is only temporary, but we saw last year with a few teams (Nashville SC one obvious example) of teams with long Open Cup runs getting fatigued. That doesn’t mean they want to lose to FC Dallas by any stretch, but targets within league play are probably more meaningful at a certain point.

They’ve converged with three teams below them to a spread of barely over half a projected point. This is just a snapshot (the spread between those same four teams was nearly 7.5 just a week ago), but it does speak to the competitiveness for that second-round hosting slot and the first-round bye – the fourth and sixth positions in the table, respectively – on this side of the Mississippi.

The competition for the final playoff spots is also far more competitive here, with ninth and 14th separated by barely more than five projected points. That’s basically one upset for the 14th team (Tulsa this week) to get back into projected position, and a couple bad weeks in a row could put a team that appears to be in safe position from being far from the projected playoff field.

Vegas made a big climb by playing at home, since the Lights are outstanding at Cashman and one of the worst teams in USL as a visitor (only Tacoma is worse). Speaking of Tacoma, if the gap between them and second-bottom is as big or bigger next week, they’re going to drop off the bottom of the chart to provide more clarity to higher portions of it. They will finish last in the league, there’s not much mystery there.

Pure Power

This ratings method uses goals for/against in each individual game (compared to the opponent’s averages) to determine teams’ overall quality. It’s blind to result but not location or score, making it essentially the opposite metric of what Table Power measures.

Zero is average for offense, defense, and total. A team with a 2.0 overall rating would be two standard deviations better than average (by some combination of offensive and defensive quality), 1.0 is a single standard deviation better, etc.

Tampa’s continued drop with a couple poor weeks sees a single-position rise from Nashville and Ottawa, and Portland moves up two with New Mexico’s similar former-leader struggles going on. I’m surprised the numbers didn’t hate a home draw against Memphis from Ottawa, but it was actually a (barely) above-average performance, and didn’t ding the Fury that much.

Pittsburgh rises after putting a five-spot on Atlanta. ATL UTD 2 is probably a team against whom the top-table sides can name their score, but credit to the Riverhounds for actually being the ones to choose to do it. Pittsburgh is still a bizarre team compared to historical expectations for a Bob Lilley team: elite offense, mediocre defense.

Tulsa and Austin both take reasonable tumbles for a loss to El Paso (certainly understandable) and a draw at home against Tacoma (less so for a team that had been very good at home until a couple weeks ago). The Defiance remain by far the worst team in USL despite that result… and they don’t play again until July 6(!). Some Tacoma Sounders games during MLS’s Gold Cup break could have helped them look far more reasonable a side.

Games to watch

Here are the games that should have interesting impacts on some of the numbers.