More EU citizens leaving UK after Brexit vote, as research reveals impact of international students on net migration is much lower than thought

This article is more than 3 years old

This article is more than 3 years old

Net migration to the UK has fallen to its lowest level in three years, as significantly more EU citizens left the country in the wake of the Brexit vote, official statistics have shown.

The headline net migration figure of 246,000, which is the difference between immigration and emigration, was 81,000 lower than the 327,000 recorded in the March 2016 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable said the figures were evidence of an economically damaging “Brexodus” of EU workers.

“These figures show a deeply worrying Brexodus of EU citizens who have made the UK their home. This is largely a result of the failure of Theresa May’s government to guarantee EU citizens’ right to stay,” Cable said.

“This government must act urgently to give assurances to skilled and hard-working EU citizens, before any more damage is done to our already weakened economy.”



The change was driven by a marked fall in net migration of EU citizens to the UK, as more left the country and fewer arrived in the months after the country voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016, statisticians said.

Related research also revealed that the impact of international students on net migration is much lower than previously thought as 97% of students from beyond the European Economic Area (EEA) leave before their visa expires.

Two complementary reports released at the same time by the ONS and Home Office have cast doubt over previous estimates of international students who remain in the UK once their studies are completed, contrary to previous suggestions that tens of thousands were illegally remaining.

The Home Office paper on “exit checks” data – a proper count of all people who are actually known to have left the UK – found 176,317 – 97.4% – of 181, 024 international students from outside the EEA left on time.

Meanwhile, the ONS found “strong evidence” that the current methodology used is likely to “underestimate student emigration” and therefore figures on the contribution that students make to net migration is likely to be an overestimate.



The findings have led to confusion over the government’s stance on international students. Theresa May, as home secretary and now prime minister, has insisted international students should continue to be included within official migration estimates, on the assumption that a significant minority flouted rules and overstayed their visas.

Previous estimates put the level of overstayers as high as 100,000-plus, when according to the exit checks analysis, this figure is more likely to be under 5,000. Home secretary Amber Rudd has launched an investigation into the economic impact of international students.

The perceived presence of student overstayers has driven Tory immigration policy since Theresa May entered the department with curbs on student visas increasing over the last seven years.

Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, said: “Tory migration policy is a shambles. Against all advice, Theresa May continues to insist in maintaining an arbitrary net migration target of under 100,000, which has never once been met.

“Now it seems that her long-running campaign to malign international students is based on fantasy, with no evidence of a major issue with students overstaying. Some in government appear to be waking up to the idea that overseas students make a valuable contribution to our country and have belatedly asked the Migration Advisory Committee to gather evidence.

“Labour will offer fair rules and reasonable management of migration; prioritising jobs, growth and prosperity, not bogus net migration targets.”

Brandon Lewis, the immigration minister, said: “People who come to our country to work bring significant benefits to the UK, but there is no consent for uncontrolled immigration.

“That is why we have reformed routes to the UK from outside Europe and will negotiate the right deal in the national interest when we enter Brexit negotiations.”

Elsewhere in the statistics, emigration of EU citizens increased by 33,000 year-on-year to 122,000 – the highest outflow for nearly a decade.



There was a particularly sharp rise, of 17,000, in departures of citizens from the so-called EU8 countries, which joined the union in 2004 – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.



At the same time there was a 19,000 decrease in immigration from the EU, although this was not statistically significant.



Jonathan Portes, the economist, said: “These statistics confirm that Brexit is having a significant impact on migration flows, even before we have left the EU or any changes are made to law or policy.

“EU nationals, both those already here and those considering a move to the UK, are understandably concerned about their future status in the UK. My earlier research suggested that Brexit was likely to lead to a large fall in EU migration to the UK, with a significant negative impact on the UK economy.”







