This is a diary series I’ve begun where every day (more or less) until the election, I’ll be highlighting one competitive race, giving some background, and information about how to help out. The goal is to go senate, governors, then house, focusing on competitive races.

The Democrat

Jon Tester is very Montana. A farmer from the agricultural and Republican eastern part of the state, Tester even has the missing fingers from a meat grinder accident to prove his bona fides. He got a music degree from the University of Great Falls (now University of Providence) and returned home to teach music and help out on the family farm. It was during this time that he began his interest in government, being a member of various local government boards. In 1998, the Republican state senator for the 45th retired, and Tester ran to replace him. Despite the Republican lean of the district and the mediocre year nationally, Tester won by 11% and wouldn’t have a tough state senate election again. His adeptness at politics carried through outside elections, and he became Senate president in 2005. The next year, he made the jump to US Senate, when longtime senator Conrad Burns’s popularity collapsed amidst an unpopular Bush administration and his involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal. It turned into the 2nd closest senate race of the year, and Tester prevailed eventually with less than 1% of the vote. Since then Tester has carved out a niche as a decently liberal senator who has nonetheless stayed in touch with Montana. The Republican

Republican challengers this year have a tendency to go for outsider businessmen who only recently got into politics. Matt Rosendale built himself a successful career as a real estate developer in the Baltimore area. Yes, Baltimore, as in Maryland. He only moved to Montana in 2002.

Once he moved to Montana, he bought a ranch and settled in. But before long, he grew restless and in the 2010 Tea Party wave, ran for and won a his Glendive-based state house district from a Democrat. The next cylce, in 2012, his state senate district opened up, and he slid into the senate easily after scaring off his competitors. Then in 2014, the next natural step, US house open up, so he ran for that, too. Unfortunately for him, his eastern base was split with another candidate, and he finished a close third.

In 2016, he tried again for state office, this time auditor. He avoided a primary, and was swept in on the Montana Trump wave, where every seat except incumbent Governor Bullock’s went to a Republican. He was the only other Republican that year who struggled. And once Zinke was confirmed for Cabinet, Rosendale set his sights on senate. If you’re counting, that’s 5 different races in 5 cycles. What has he done in that time? Mostly plan for his next race, as far as anyone can tell.

The State

Montana is split between the plains in the east and mountains in the west. The east is more rural, and much more conservative. Most of the population is involved in ranching, farming, or the oil/fracking industries. The west is a hodgepodge of mining, farming, and small cities like Missoula that can give of a liberal college town vibe. Historically, while its rural composition kept the state in the Republican column presidentially, Montana was fairly progressive state on many issues. Unionization and a strong Democratic Party kept the state a blueish shade of purple for a very long time.

However, starting in the 80s and accelerating since then, Montana began to be a destination for well off conservatives from the coasts who wanted more space, more freedom, and a more conservative atmosphere. These transplants began to move the state in a more conservative direction. During the Bush and Obama years, some of the more traditionally Democratic voters began to drift away, and in 2016, Clinton lost the state by 20.2%, a tough loss, albeit by roughly the same margin Kerry suffered.

Montana Senate election 2012, by county

The History

After Tester’s narrow plurality win in 2006, he had a target on his back. The Republican who jumped in to take him on was Denny Rehberg. Rehberg had been the congressman for Montana’s at-large district since 2000, and had been fairly popular to that point, surviving even the 2006 and 2008 waves with ease. He was a formidable challenger.

Tester worked to maintain the authentic Montana farmer image he’d cultivated since his first senate run. Rehberg made perhaps a fatal miscalculation. After watching the Obama backlash contribute to perhaps the best year Republicans had had in Montana since before the Depression, he settled on a strategy of tying Tester to Obama. At times, it seemed like Rehberg was running against Obama, not Tester. That, combined with an outside focus on digging up Rehberg’s past coziness with lobbyists, helped paint him as a partisan with no real reason to replace Tester. Tester went on to win another plurality, 49-45.

The 2018 Race

Montana wasn’t exactly a recruiting whiff for Republicans, but consider the sequence of events. The last two senate races, Republicans went with the US house rep, Rehberg, and Daines, both of whom did pretty well. The current rep was Ryan Zinke, who Trump put in his cabinet. Then Greg Gianforte, a self-funder who had almost knocked off Steve Bullock in 2016, and was potentially next in line, ran in the special to replace him, assaulting a reporter in the process, both of which kept him from running for senate. Attorney General Tim Fox, the strongest Republican statewide in 2012 and 2016 bowed out in 2017. That left four candidates. Matt Rosendale, a right-wing crank state senator, a judge, and a businessman.

Rosendale emerged from the fray with a 34% primary win, and the Tester team had prepared for him. While Tester had spent the pre-primary period polishing his Montana-focused problem solver image, he’d also gotten his allies ready to attack Matt Rosendale over the issue where Rosendale was probably most vulnerable: his carpetbagging charges. Listen to him speak, even in his own commercials, and anyone from Maryland will immediately recognize the Balmer accent. He sounds like he stepped out of a John Waters movie.

Tester got a small bit of good news in early July. Third parties usually do well in Montana. A Libertarian getting 6.6% in 2012 may have even helped Tester get reelected. But the Green candidate who’d made the ballot was an obvious Republican plant, as the Republican Party was essentially running the effort to get him on the ballot. After a Democratic Party lawsuit, the Green was kicked off the ballot for improper petitioning procedures. The Libertarian remains.

Big issues:

Public Lands: Montana holds dear to its public lands, and many ranchers’ livelihoods depend on them. Rosendale was in favor of selling them off during the heat of the Tea Party wave, and only switched his position when he went statewide.

Ranching: Tester grew up on a farm, and still operates his family property. Rosendale could theoretically negate this part of Tester biography, but a charge started in the primary campaign, that he only owns his land and doesn’t ranch, is picking up traction.

Trump: Tester has portrayed himself as willing to work with Trump, but Rosendale is going all in on winning with the Trump base. So we’ll see how important Trump is to Montana.

Fundraising:

As of June 30, Tester had $6.1M, and was raising roughly $1.0M per month

As of May 16, Rosendale had $329K and was raising roughly $110K per month, although he was doing a small amount of self-funding.

Polling:

There have only been three polls of Montana. Two low quality independent pollsters found Tester up by about 10%, while a Republican internal found him up 49-46. And to be clear, when you release an internal that shows you trailing, it’s a call for help. At this point, Rosendale trying to argue that he’s only down 3% is good news.

Getting Involved:

Montana is big, spread out, and varied. There are a lot of different kinds of voters out there, and the Tester campaign needs to get them all out to the polls. If you live in the state please help out either Tester or house candidate Kathleen Williams (that diary will come eventually). I don’t want to actively advocate against donating to Democrats, but senate races are very expensive and you get some of the worst return on donating to them. But if the senate’s very important to you, and you want to give financially to the competitive races, here’s Tester’s ActBlue.