Everyone is still bullish on crypto currency as a technology, but I think for the price momentum to keep pace with that excitement, we need to see one of two things happen in 2018. If one or both of these things do not take place by the end of the year, I find it very difficult to believe the price action we are looking for will continue. Also, depending on which of these two things happen, it can change the way you may want to trade the market.

So let’s look at the two things I feel need to happen before the end of this year.

Adoption as a currency – I have always felt this is one of the biggest things that need to happen in crypto if it is ever going to help the average person and not just help big business. Towards the end of last year, we actually saw a decline in crypto currency acceptance. Bitcoin was dropped by several retailers and processors and many of the debit style crypto cards got blocked, at least for the time being. This was a big blow to crypto, although most people ignored it since the price of BTC was rising so quickly.

But in order for crypto to fend off stifling regulation, it needs to be adopted by a decent percentage of the population. When that happens, any regulation will effect people directly, and they will respond. If nobody is using crypto, laws can be passed without many people even caring or pushing back.

Finally, acceptance as a currency was the original goal of crypto to begin with. It was meant to free people from the control of fractional banking and give people an opportunity to protect their buying power with a deflationary asset that can be a hedge against inflationary fiat.

So now let’s look at the other thing that must happen.

A real world blockchain product that works – By this I don’t just mean a partnership, or some kind of test network. We need to see a real-world working product. One that isn’t just a test, but something out there working in the real world and solving a real problem. But not only that, the product MUST be using a token that is integral and fundamental to the working of the product. This last part about the token is VERY important in my opinion because if a product is out there and working, and the token isn’t really necessary, then it doesn’t help any of you guys, it only helps big business as they can remove the token anytime they want. An example of this is XRP. Ripple can be out there working, but the token is not even needed. So a success of Ripple may look good for blockchain, but it won’t help you at all, it only helps banks as the banks will never use that token.







So how do you trade each of these. Well, if currency adoption is the story of the year and we don’t any see any real world blockchain product, the answer is simple. You want to be in the main currency coins. My choices are BTC, XMR, and possibly LTC as I feel LTC may have some good upside and the price is reasonable at the moment.

If we see a working product, then the platform coins like Ethereum could be the big winner. However, if we don’t see a working product then I feel those platform coins will start to go flat. I don’t feel the price action can be sustained without a working product that is out in the real world. Test network and vague corporate partners won’t be enough. Blockchain technology will still move forward, but as an investment, the price action will stall out.

Of course, you have to monitor the industry and see which way the trends are going to make sure you trade before the obvious evidence comes out. Personally, I feel there is a greater chance of currency adoption than a working real world blockchain product. However, I will be watching to see if that changes at all over the course of the year.