To be clear, members of this new Independent Group had a variety of motivations for leaving – four because of alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, as well as objections to the party’s left-wing bias, and some also in fear of being de-selected. However, the Conservative defectors, and all but one from Labour, want another “people’s vote” on Brexit. It is instructive that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn then moved to favour a second referendum, while Theresa May seeks to delay another parliamentary vote, hoping the Europeans will “blink”. Loading Given that the EU would still clearly prefer that the UK not leave, it is unlikely to offer any significant concessions, so it is hard to see how May can ever win a parliamentary vote on her withdrawal bill. Indeed, she continues to lose procedural votes that work to reduce her negotiating authority. No vote would mean that the UK would still leave on March 29, a “hard Brexit”, which most don’t want. The hope of the UK establishment is that a concensus emerges for a second referendum, or for withdrawing the leave application altogether. Much will depend on whether there are further defections. It is clear that an issue such as Brexit is not only divisive across the UK community, but also within each of the major parties, important enough to threaten the traditional party duopoly. Many say, or hope, it can’t happen, but it may. Party unity has been a significant issue in Australia's political history, but disunity has probably been more about individuals than issues, especially since World War II. The most notable exception was the ALP/DLP split of the mid-1950s over communism and communist influence. But Gorton v McMahon, Howard v Peacock, Hawke v Keating, Rudd v Gillard v Rudd, and Abbott v Turnbull were mostly just about personalities, occasionally dressed under a policy cloak.

However, over the post-war period there has been an increasingly significant voter drift against both major parties. In the late 1940s, together, they attracted about 95 per cent of the vote. Now it's in the mid-70s, at best. Most recently, the drift has manifested in support for high-profile independents, a trend that will gather momentum at the May election. Loading This is also occurring as both leaders have net negative poll ratings, and the electorate is genuinely faced with the choice between two lessers, both parties and individuals. While there are multiple motivations, a principle reason for the voter drift has been dissatisfaction with the two major parties, which have become increasingly self-absorbed internally while focusing more on point-scoring against, and blame-shifting to, each other, rather than governing, and particularly meeting the bigger policy challenges. Conspicuous disloyalty, interminable scandals, opportunistic, short-term policy thought bubbles, cynicism, and so on, have led voters to disengage, stop listening, or protest where and when they can. The economic narrative embraced by both sides doesn’t match the lived, and increasingly difficult, experience of voters, while the big issues they realistically expect their representatives to handle are simply denied, ignored, or fiddled with.

In all this, individual members are increasingly under considerable pressure to toe the line, to rabbit on with the party line, as summarised in the dot-points emailed to them each morning, even if they fundamentally disagree. It is a daily farce in the media. It becomes harder and harder to defend the indefensible, especially for those in marginal seats where their feedback is contrary, where their support is waning. Loading Some members have already broken out of the two-party structure – Cory Bernardi, Clive Palmer. Banks, most noticeably, joining significant independents, Cathy McGowan, Rebekha Sharkey, Andrew Wilkie, Kerryn Phelps and Bob Katter. Independents could certainly hold the “power of the balance” in the Lower House after the next election. However, could climate policy be our Brexit? Could it threaten our LNP/ALP duopoly? It is a divisive issue within both the LNP and the ALP, against the background of some 70 to 80 per cent of voters consistently wanting decisive government-led action on the essential transition to a low-carbon society, and to renewables. Advocates for a long-term climate action plan across the two parties are much closer than they are to the deniers, coal advocates and intransigents in their own parties.