by Cian Fahey

In an interview with Jason Cole of Bleacher Report, Washington general manager Scot McCloughan said that he told Kirk Cousins, "we're going to build this roster to where you can be average and still be good." McCloughan spoke at length in that interview, but those were the words that stood out.

McCloughan is a smart general manager who has an unparalleled track record to fall back on. He played a major role in building not one, but two of the best rosters in the NFL over the past decade. McCloughan built the foundation of Jim Harbaugh's squads when the former San Francisco head coach took the 49ers to three straight NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl. McCloughan then proceeded to play a significant role in building the team that ultimately beat Harbaugh's 49ers in their final NFC Championship appearance. McCloughan was a senior personnel executive for the Seattle Seahawks from 2010 to 2013 and had a hand in drafting Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson. Personal issues prevented McCloughan from staying with either franchise, allowing Washington to appoint him as their GM after the 2014 season.

Understanding McCloughan's presence in Washington is important. He has brought a rational thought process and an expert level of evaluation to a franchise that has been mired in dysfunction for years. Previous regimes would likely have rushed into re-signing Cousins after the season he had in 2015, but McCloughan has so far taken the patient route.

Washington put the franchise tag on Cousins after the 2015 season. The deadline to give him a contract extension is tomorrow, July 15, but all reports suggest that there is no chance McCloughan pays Cousins unless he gets a discount that the quarterback isn't looking to give.

Cousins can demand big money without being laughed out of the room because of his production last year. After sitting behind Robert Griffin III for the first three seasons of his career, Cousins was named the starter during last year's preseason and went on to throw for more than 4,000 yards. He threw 29 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions while averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. Despite his impressive numbers, Cousins became the most polarizing player in the NFL. That brings us back to that sentence, "you can be average and still be good."

Up until Week 10, Cousins' numbers were as expected. He averaged 6.3 yards per attempt while throwing 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Washington was 3-5 and headed nowhere. In Week 10, things turned around and Cousins was considered the catalyst. McCloughan's team blew out the New Orleans Saints, with Cousins completing 20 of 25 passes for 324 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. From that point onwards, Cousins only had one more regular season game with a quarterback rating below 100, an 89.2 against the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. He averaged 9.4 yards per attempt while throwing 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions. The simplest summation is that Cousins improved after Week 9. It's an easy narrative to sell: he needed that time to get comfortable in the offense after taking over without a full training camp and preseason as the full-time starter. It follows a natural plot line and is inarguably logical. The problem is, Cousins was average and was still good.

If we look specifically at that Week 10 game against the Saints, we can see that Cousins averaged 13.0 yards per attempt, but the average depth of his throws was a measly 4.4. Cousins had three screens go for 138 yards, and gained 202 yards with two touchdowns on Simple YAC throws (passes where the ball doesn't travel further than 2 yards past the line of scrimmage). On that day, Cousins only needed to be average to be good -- to be great even.

That is largely how Cousins was productive over the second half of the regular season. His offensive line became one of the most effective in the league, guided by offensive line coach Bill Callahan. Jordan Reed dominated every defender who tried to cover him. Pierre Garcon was constantly adjusting to passes with ease, and DeSean Jackson remained uncoverable. Even Jamison Crowder surpassed all expectations with his play. You can't evaluate those elements using raw stats, but you can isolate the quarterback from his supporting cast by charting his throws.

Kirk Cousins Accuracy, First Eight Games, 2015 Pass Distance 5 or Less 6-15 16-25 26 or more Outside Numbers Left 83.3% 36 64.3% 14 62.5% 8 30.0% 10 Outside Hashes Left 87.2% 47 64.3% 14 45.5% 11 0.0% 1 Between Hashes 93.3% 15 78.6% 14 75.0% 4

N/A Outside Hashes Right 92.1% 38 84.6% 13 28.6% 7

N/A Outside Numbers Right 85.7% 35 43.8% 16 25.0% 8 33.3% 3

The above chart tracks all of Cousins' throws from the first eight games of the season. His completion rate of 67 percent was eighth-best among quarterbacks in that timeframe, but his accuracy percentage was 74 percent, a mark that would have ranked 28th in the NFL over the whole season. The discrepancy lies in the offense that Jay Gruden asks his quarterback to run. Fifty-eight percent of Cousins' passes traveled 5 yards or fewer past the line of scrimmage last season. Not only did he lead the league in that measurement, he was a full 10 percent ahead of Derek Carr, who runs a somewhat similar offense, and a full 20 percent ahead of Cam Newton, who runs the polar opposite offense. When you're not throwing the ball down the field, your completion percentage should be as high as Cousins' was.

Cousins couldn't throw the ball downfield at all over the first half of the season. When he was completing passes, he was relying on his receivers to make outstanding adjustments to pull in inaccurate passes.

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The above play gains 18 yards, but it is an awful throw from Cousins. Jamison Crowder makes an outrageous adjustment before pulling the ball up off the ground with his hands. This is the type of adjustment that could very easily have resulted in a torn ACL (just ask Reggie Wayne) because of how the receiver had to torque and turn his body.

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As a weak-armed passer, Cousins can't throw with precision downfield. He has to force passes more to get them there on time, which takes away from his placement. The above play against the St. Louis Rams is a prime example of Cousins completing a pass but making an inaccurate throw. This should have been a long touchdown reception; Janoris Jenkins completely bought on the out route that the receiver, Ryan Grant, never ran. Cousins should have led Grant downfield, allowing him to run underneath the ball and continue on towards the end zone. Instead, as soon as Grant got level with the cornerback he began to slow down, turning to find the football as it arrived on his back shoulder. Grant made an impressive adjustment to pull the ball in but had to sacrifice his momentum and his footing to do so. This was a deep completion, but far from an accurate pass.

Over this period, Cousins was also regularly throwing interceptable passes. He had 17 interceptable passes on 308 attempts, or one interceptable pass in every 18.1 attempts. Only three quarterbacks -- Johnny Manziel, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck -- had a worse ratio for the full season. Cousins was extremely lucky that only nine of those passes turned into interceptions, because more than a few were awful throws.

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The above GIF comes from Week 1 when Cousins had already been intercepted twice. The first was particularly awful, and the second had come on the pass attempt that immediately preceded the above play. With five minutes left, this play should have sealed the game for the Dolphins. Jamar Taylor is always waiting on the ball and Cousins simply heaves it into the general direction of Pierre Garcon. He panicked in the pocket and threw the ball up for grabs. Taylor played Garcon perfectly, but watched the ball slide through his hands instead of landing comfortably between them.

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The following week, Cousins made a similar but worse throw towards Ryan Grant. This time it was Trumaine Johnson of the Rams who let him off the hook with a drop.

In Week 3, Cousins had four interceptable passes against the Giants; only two were caught. Prince Amukamara had the first interception with a great break on a predetermined throw off of play-action to Garcon. Then, early in the second quarter, serial offender Landon Collins was beaten in coverage, only for Cousins to underthrow a relatively easy touchdown to Jordan Reed.

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Collins has awful ball skills. He turns his head early enough to locate the ball on this play, but doesn't know how to catch it with both hands, instead settling to bat it away with one. Collins is extremely rigid so he's not comfortable making this type of play. Your average defensive back wouldn't have been so forgiving.

Two weeks later against the Atlanta Falcons, Cousins overthrows Garcon on a deep in-breaking route. Garcon fully extends and makes an admirable attempt at erasing the inaccuracy even though he knows he could be punished for opening his body like that over the middle of the field.

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The ball eludes Garcon's hands and hits those of the trailing cornerback. Not only does he fail to make the catch, he knocks the ball away from the safety behind him, who has crouched down to cradle the ball before it hits the ground.

At this point, you get the idea but to be sure, here are two more examples from the first half of the season.

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So here we reach the Saints game, where Cousins doesn't have to throw the ball downfield to put up huge numbers. By DVOA, the Saints weren't just the worst defense in the league last year, but the worst defense we have ever measured. It's not hyperbolic to suggest that any quarterback could have put up huge numbers against the Saints that day in that situation. Quarterbacks who faced the Saints defense last season averaged a 116.2 quarterback rating, 13.9 points higher than against any other defense.

Cousins and the Washington offense faced a lot of inferior opponents over the second half of the season. With the abundance of talent around him, it would often have been tougher for him to struggle than to produce the numbers that he did.

In three of his final eight games during the regular season, Cousins faced the worst defense in the league (and the last quarter-century), the Saints; the second-worst, the Bears; and the third-worst, the Giants. He only faced two defenses that ranked in the top 16 from Week 10 onwards (one if you discount the playoffs). Two of his biggest games came against the Bills and Eagles, two defenses that ranked much worse in weighted DVOA than they did in DVOA for the season. Cousins' success obviously played a part in that number, but when you watch those games you can see how overwhelmed those units were by the level of talent in the Washington offense.

Kirk Cousins Accuracy, Final Nine Games (Including Playoffs), 2015 Pass Distance 5 or Less 6-15 16-25 26 or more Outside Numbers Left 91.4% 35 66.7% 15 76.9% 13 42.9% 7 Outside Hashes Left 90.6% 32 75.0% 12 44.4% 9 100.0% 1 Between Hashes 84.6% 13 85.7% 7 40.0% 5

N/A Outside Hashes Right 87.5% 40 73.3% 15 100.0% 3 0.0% 2 Outside Numbers Right 85.7% 28 50.0% 8 83.3% 6 33.3% 6

Above is Cousins' pass chart from Week 10 onwards. His accuracy rate improved over the second half of the season, from 74 percent to 78 percent. Cousins obviously deserves some credit for this, but the situation can't be glossed over. Windows became wider against less-talented defenses, the improvement of the offensive line was obvious for anyone to see, and the structure of the offense was altered. In the above chart, you can see that Cousins' improvement came in the intermediate ranges. He was more accurate to the right and left while remaining inaccurate between the hashes and to the left of the hashes. Cousins' improvement in this area can largely be put down to Washington's use of hard play fakes against ill-disciplined defenses.

Over the first eight games of the season, Cousins attempted 16 play-action passes to the intermediate level of the field. From Week 10 onwards, he attempted 23 (albeit in one extra game). Cousins was always productive on these plays, but the offense went through a stretch where he couldn't find them leading up to Week 9.

Throwing off play-action in general became a big part of the Washington offense over the second half of the season. Over the first nine weeks of the season, Cousins completed 32 of 46 play-action passes for 403 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Over the second half of the season, Cousins completed 39 of 54 passes for 744 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. He went from averaging 8.8 yards per play-action pass attempt to averaging 13.8.

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Play-action simplifies the read and throw for the quarterback and asks him to simply throw a catchable pass within the timing of the play. In the above GIF we can see the benefit of play-action as Jordan Reed is left wide open between four defenders over the middle of the field.



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Play-action passes are only effective when the defense makes a mistake. As such, they are useful for exploiting bad defenders but less so for attacking talented defenders. In the above play, the Eagles' right-sided inside linebacker completely sells out to play the run fake when he sees the pulling guard. This is an impressive play design from Gruden, but also a startlingly bad mistake by the defender.

This pass was considered accurate, but even when throwing to a wide-open receiver Cousins forces his very tall tight end to leave his feet and catch the ball over his head. This isn't a problem when the receiver is wide-open, but against a better defense the safety might have closed quicker and had an opportunity to burrow into Reed's midsection because of the ball placement.

When Nick Foles was thriving with the Philadelphia Eagles, he was doing so in this fashion. His floating passes that would arrive slightly off target on a regular basis didn't matter in Chip Kelly's scheme behind a dominant offensive line with receivers who could comfortably adjust at the catch point. Foles could make reads from spacious pockets, while he was rarely forced to throw into tight windows downfield because of the design of the offense and the execution around him. Over the second half of last season, all of these elements could be seen in Washington.

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Cousins was propped up by the talent around him and the absence of talent across from him. To what degree and for how long this is sustainable is unclear. It wasn't sustainable for Foles because the Eagles couldn't maintain an offense with 10 above-average starters playing around him. As one example of how difficult it could be to sustain what Cousins did over the second half of last year, the quarterback had six Simple YAC plays of 31 or more yards in the last two months of 2015. Cousins was the only quarterback to benefit from six such plays all season, and Matthew Stafford and Carson Palmer were the only other quarterbacks to even get five.

The next question is whether Cousins can take care of the ball well enough to keep the offense on track regardless of its talent.

Cousins' ball security improved in the second half of last year -- which isn't saying much. Cousins had nine interceptable passes over his final nine games last year, one every 28.6 attempts (which would have ranked 16th if extrapolated out over the full season).

The main concern there is how Cousins finished the season. He had one of his worst games of the year against the Green Bay Packers. Cousins' numbers were again saved by some poor defensive back play and yardage that was bloated in garbage time (He gained 104 of his 329 yards while trailing by 17 points with fewer than five minutes left in the fourth quarter).

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This play comes with just over nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. Washington is trailing by 13 points, but there is still enough time to avoid desperate Hail Mary-like throws. Cousins forces this pass down the right sideline, leading two defenders to the ball. Those defenders then take each other out, preventing either from catching the ball. Cousins had a wide-open checkdown option underneath who would have gained at least 7 yards to move the offense into a more manageable situation on a third down in four-down territory.

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Later in the fourth quarter, Cousins underthrew a jump ball to Jordan Reed that went straight to Micah Hyde. Hyde dropped an easy interception.



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It's hard to put a positive spin on Cousins' propensity for throwing interceptable passes. Some quarterbacks throw a lot of interceptable passes, but they aren't awful throws straight to defenders so they aren't regularly caught. Other quarterbacks throw fewer interceptable passes but their throws are so poor that it's often easy for the defensive back to pull them in. Cousins combines the worst of both worlds, throwing awful interceptable passes at too high of a rate. It's possible that he will outgrow this trait and benefit from the smart scheming that Gruden can build around him, but rationally projecting success based on his whole career to this point is very difficult to do.

McCloughan is talking about getting average to be good. Average is regularly received as a negative, but being an average quarterback in the NFL is being a top-16 or top-20 talent at the very least. Players like that aren't all that easy to find.