First base has always been a powerful position and fantasy owners often have one of their top producers each season in their “1B” slot. There are many excellent first base options for the 2016 season, but some of those may not have quite the same success they had in 2015. The following first basemen can expect a dip in their statistics for the 2016 season, assuming similar amounts of playing time:

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Chris Colabello – Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Colabello appeared in 101 games for the legendarily powerful Blue Jays, posting a sparkling slash line of .321/.367/.520. He drove out 15 home runs and drove in 54 RBI. He’s due for the biggest regression among all first basemen heading into 2016, however.

His .411 BABIP was far and away the highest in all of baseball for hitters with at least 300 plate appearances (not just among first basemen, but among all hitters). His BABIP in the last two seasons was .308 and .253. So leave Colabello for someone else to draft, unless he happens to drop low enough to where his projected .260s batting average and 10 home runs are worth a bench spot.

Ben Paulsen – Colorado Rockies

Ben Paulsen has had an interesting major league career. In two seasons (147 total games), he has hit .284/.329/.479. That has been buoyed by a thoroughly unsustainable .358 BABIP.

In his first season, his BABIP was an even .400, and in 2015 it was .351. While some players (like fellow first basemen Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt) have sustained high BABIPs, Paulsen does not project as a player who can sustain a BABIP greater than .350. While playing for the Rockies will certainly help Paulsen’s bat, he projects for a batting average closer to .250 than to his .277 2015 average.

He does project for between 15-20 home runs, but that isn’t thoroughly impressive given other first base options. Paulsen is certainly draftable, but ideally he’d be a bench piece for owners with injury-risk first basemen and not a starter.

Chris Davis – Free Agent

Chris Davis had an excellent 2015 season after a relatively awful 2014. His 2015 featured 47 home runs, 117 RBI, and a .262/.361/.562 slash line. His .319 BABIP shows that Davis should be able to sustain those numbers, at least metric-wise.

The reason for his inclusion on this list is more of a safeguard. Davis has played all of his home games since 2011 in Oriole Park at Camden Yards, an extreme hitter’s park. Camden Yards’ +117 Park Factor means that Davis could be in for regression based simply on the fact that he won’t get to play 81 games in Baltimore every season.

While a new home ballpark shouldn’t significantly affect his batting average or on-base percentage, it could bring his home run and RBI total down by a bit. Davis is still an excellent fantasy asset and will be a starting first baseman in all forms of fantasy baseball next season, but owners should understand that his power numbers may take a bit of a dip following his elite 2015.

Mike Napoli – Free Agent

For the first half of 2015, Mike Napoli looked like he was done with baseball. He hit a depressing .207/.307/.386 with the Red Sox over 98 games. He was traded to the Texas Rangers on August 7th, however, and had a bit of a comeback, hitting a more acceptable .295/.396/.513 in 35 games.

While a small sample size warning is present here, Napoli simply seemed like a better baseball player after the trade. His strikeout, walk, and ball in play numbers weren’t exorbitantly different, and he was simply better.

That being said, fantasy managers who draft Napoli shouldn’t really expect his Rangers numbers. They shouldn’t expect his Red Sox numbers either, though (no one would draft him if they did). Napoli should play 2016 as a complementary piece, forming the right-handed hitting half of a platoon somewhere.

He crushed lefty pitching to the tune of a .278/.391/.563 line in 2015. He will most likely be paired with a lefty hitter who can crush righties.

Given that Napoli will likely not be an everyday starter, he is not a great fantasy option for 2016. He will have his uses in deeper leagues and for owners who are willing to play platoon players and set daily lineups.

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David A. Marcillo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMarcillo77.

