Each week, from now until it becomes trivial to do so, I’ll break down where Miami stands in the Coastal Division and how they can reach the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. The post will include a breakdown of the relevant teams to Miami’s Coastal hopes and their remaining schedules, a list of potential hypothetical finishes and the results of those finishes and a rooting guide for Miami fans for the upcoming week.

Let’s start here: at this point, the Miami Hurricanes are still a relative long-shot to win the Coastal, but the chance is definitely there. First, here are the Coastal standings right now:

It’s worth mentioning that I’ll simply be looking at the standings and projecting the rest of the season as it relates to Miami, not the Coastal as a whole. While Pittsburgh or North Carolina could absolutely win the division as well if things break right, that’s not the concern of this post. For our purposes, there are three teams we need to watch the rest of the way:

Miami (2-2)

Remaining ACC schedule: North Carolina, Florida State, at Virginia, Pittsburgh

For the ‘Canes, they pretty much have to run the table in Coastal play. It’s mathematically possible for them to go to Charlotte with another loss in the Coastal, but that would probably have to involve a win over FSU and a bevy of results outside of Miami’s control going its way. Simply put, Miami needs to beat UNC, UVA and Pittsburgh. That would take care of the tiebreaker against all three of those schools (who happen to be tied with Miami in the standings right now) and put Miami at 5-3 in the Coastal at worst. It would obviously help Miami a lot to beat Florida State as well and, while that’s not completely impossible, it’s certainly a tall order. Finishing 5-3 would give Miami a chance if a few things went the Canes’ way.

Duke (2-1)

Remaining ACC schedule: at Pittsburgh, at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Duke has by far the easiest ACC schedule this year of anyone in the Coastal and the Blue Devils may very well may ride it back to Charlotte and repeat as Coastal champs. The good news for Miami here is that David Cutcliffe’s team is far from invincible; Miami already beat Duke convincingly and it’s pretty easy to see the Blue Devils slipping at least twice the rest of the way. By virtue of Miami’s 22-10 win against the Blue Devils at Sun Life Stadium earlier this year, Miami holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Duke and if the ‘Canes and Blue Devils finish tied atop the division at 5-3, Miami will go onto Charlotte.

Georgia Tech (3-2)

Remaining ACC schedule: Virginia, at NC State, Clemson

Here’s another team that likely has to pick up two losses for Miami to reach Charlotte. GT holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against Miami after the Hurricanes’ brutally disappointing 28-17 loss in Atlanta. However, it’s certainly not impossible to see Tech dropping two of these three games—Clemson is clearly the second-best team in the conference and hasn’t lost this season to anyone outside of the Top 10 while Virginia and NC State have had their moments. On top of that, Miami can still make it to the ACC Championship if GT loses just one of the three (or—mathematically at least—none of the three), as you’ll see below.

Taking the above into account, let’s dive into the ACC’s tiebreaking scenarios and look at some hypothetical situations, from most likely to least likely (in my opinion). For the sake of this piece, aside from the first scenario, we’re going to ignore hypotheticals where GT or Duke has a better record than Miami because that would obviously send the Yellow Jackets or Blue Devils to Charlotte. Also, for the sake of simplicity, we’ll assume a 5-3 record for Miami involves wins over the ‘Canes remaining Coastal opponents and a loss to FSU. Anything else is simply too messy to sort out at this point in the season, but we’ll certainly cross that bridge if we get there.

Scenario 1: Miami finishes 4-4 in the ACC

While Miami absolutely can finish 3-1 (or even 4-0) the rest of the way if the Hurricanes play even close to the level they reached against Virginia Tech, one incredible performance doesn’t completely erase this team’s maddening propensity to suffer random letdowns against inferior Coastal opponents, going all the way back to when Miami first joined the conference. If the ‘Canes drop contests to Florida State and one of the three remaining Coastal Division opponents, they can all but kiss their chances at winning the Coastal goodbye.

Scenario 2: Miami finishes tied with Duke at 5-3 (or 6-2) with GT one game back

By virtue of Miami’s win over Duke, the ‘Canes would go to Charlotte.

Scenario 3: Miami finishes tied with GT at 5-3 (or 6-2) with Duke one game back

Georgia Tech would win the tiebreaker and the Coastal.

Scenario 4: Miami, Duke and GT all finish tied at 5-3 (or 6-2)

Here’s where it gets really fun! Because Miami beat Duke but lost to Georgia Tech, Duke beat Georgia Tech but lost to Miami and Georgia Tech beat Miami but lost to Duke, head-to-head would not be able to break the three-way tie. The next tiebreaker is winning percentage against Coastal Division opponents. Again, assuming Miami gets to 5-3 by losing to Florida State and winning the rest of its games, this tiebreaker would be overwhelmingly likely to go the Canes way. Miami would be 5-1 in the Coastal. Georgia Tech already has two Coastal losses and all three of Duke’s remaining Coastal games are tougher than their cross-divisional tilts against Syracuse and Wake Forest. Even if a fourth team somehow found its way into the mix for a tie at the top, Miami would still go through based on Coastal winning percentage. A three-or-more-way tie is something you should absolutely be rooting for as a Miami fan.

This Weekend’s Rooting Guide

Teams Miami fans should be pulling for are bolded. All games of importance in the Coastal race are on Saturday this week.

#24 Duke at Pittsburgh, Noon, ESPNU

North Carolina at Miami, 12:30, ESPN3

Virginia at Georgia Tech, 3:30, ESPNU