Already in trouble of keeping control in the midterm elections, House Republican leaders are facing a jolting new prediction that many more members could retire, making it much easier for Democrats, led by Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, to take control

“As Republican incumbents weigh their political futures, the large number of GOP retirements and open seats are additional evidence — on top of President Trump’s poor approval rating, the Democratic lead in the generic ballot, and the Democratic overperformance in state and congressional special elections — that Democrats may be able to win back the House in November,” according to Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Looking at the upcoming elections in a historical context back to 1974, the last high water mark of retirements and open seats where an incumbent didn't run, Skelley wrote, “we should expect many more retirements.”

Overall a stunning 69 House members are expected to leave office, nearly 16 percent.

He noted that on average, 48 percent of retirements come within three months of the deadline to file to run again. “To get to the average 48 percent share for inside of 120 days, 18 more retirements prior to filing deadlines would have to occur, shifting the total to 69 total retirements, with 36 coming inside of 120 days,” said the report.

The result is a troubling one for the GOP, which remains confident that voters will reward them for the tax reform passed late last year that fattened paychecks.

Still, said Skelley in a very detailed and well researched report, “By multiple measures — such as retirements, ‘pure’ retirements, and open seats that must be defended — this cycle’s GOP has one of the highest levels of exposure in the U.S. House of any presidential party in a midterm dating back to 1974. Republicans already have more retirements than any presidential party in a midterm cycle from 1974 to 2018.”

