CLEVELAND, Ohio -- A new model from the University of Washington shows that Ohio has more than enough hospital and intensive care unit capacity to handle the onslaught of expected coronavirus cases.

According to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Ohio’s coronavirus cases are expected to peak April 19, with 3,900 hospital beds needed, 585 of them in the ICU, and 468 ventilators.

Ohio has about 34,000 hospital beds at more than 100 hospitals across the state, and 2,500 ICU beds, according to data compiled by the Associated Press. The Washington study says Ohio has less than 1,300 ICU beds.

The predictions are far less dire than models Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton and Gov. Mike DeWine have cited at statehouse news briefings.

DeWine said Friday that hospitals need to build up beds and other capacity to three times what they currently have, with 6,000 to 10,000 newly diagnosed coronavirus patients a day in coming weeks. The state has used models from Ohio State University and the Cleveland Clinic.

On Monday, Acton said she wanted hospitals to at least double capacity, in time for a peak in mid- to late-April, depending on how successful successful distancing is. That includes increased staffing and equipment.

“Our forecast, our weather station gets a little better each time,” Acton said. “It gets better with each day and more accurate... We already see from the stories from the front line; it’s a lot of work in ICUs and hospitals.”

Acton said she believes the Washington model looks at peak capacity day-by day, but that coronavirus patients will have to remain in the hospital much longer than patients with other illnesses -- up to 20 days. She said scientists will continue to collaborate, to work through their projections.

“You can’t just look at who might be sick and the number of cases when they’re piling on top of each logarithmically," she said Monday.

Terry O’Sullivan, associate director of the Center for Emergency Management and Homeland Security at the University of Akron, said he expects a lot of controversy in modeling the effect of the coronavirus, mostly because there are so many unknowns.

“A lot of this is guess work,” O’Sullivan said. “In the modeling world they refer to it as garbage in, garbage out. They are sophisticated models, but they are limited by the information and inability to fully anticipate the interaction of these variables. We don’t know exactly who’s been infected.”

David Gurarie, who studies mathematical biology infectious diseases modeling and epidemiology at Case Western Reserve University, agreed.

“The main challenge of COVID-modeling at present are big uncertainties of its transmission (rates, pathways), as well as recovery, pathogenicity (fraction of “heavy infections” over “light/asymptomatic”), fatality,” Gurarie said in an email. “It is believed, large pool of undetected (asymptomatic) hosts contributes to transmission, which creates large uncertainty for model prediction.”.

Given these uncertainties, I’m not surprised two models ("UW " vs. “Cleveland clinic”) gave vastly different predictions.

The Washington study doesn’t predict total cases, but says Ohio will peak at about 1,203 deaths total, with the model showing deaths could be between about 400 and 2,100.

The study examines every state, based on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, local and national governments, as well as “COVID-19 utilization data from select locations." It estimates that approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus in the United States over the next four months -- less than the up to 200,000 warned by White House coronavirus coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx on Monday.

The latest Ohio Department of Health projection of the coronavirus curve.

Ohio is one of nine states with hospitals that won’t be overwhelmed, according to the projections, which are updated daily.

Michigan, which has had about three times more coronavirus cases than Ohio, is forecasted to need nearly triple the ICU beds than it has available. The projection shows Michigan will have about 2,855 coronavirus deaths -- double Ohio’s.

New York, which is currently overwhelmed with coronavirus cases, is expected to peak 10 days before Ohio, in line with Acton’s predictions. The state has a more steeper projected spike, with an expectation of more than 11,000 ICU beds needed and only 718 available.

Study director Dr. Christopher Murray in a news release stressed that his projections are based on strict continuance of social distancing measures.

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” Murray said. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

Ohio State University said it will release more information on the methodology of its projections later this week.