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Objective-C on its way to become programming language of 2010 - nexneo
http://www.tiobe.com/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.html
======
SamAtt
It's pretty far ahead right now but I think this trend is going to start to
reverse pretty soon. The combination of Apple loosening their restrictions,
technology like Appcelerator getting better and Android's success will make it
hard for Objective-C to continue its rapid growth.
------
smoody
I wrote my first commercial Objective-C program back in 1988 on msoft DOS --
22 years ago. I am guessing it would probably be a dead language by now if it
had not been for NeXT/Apple.
------
nexneo
Growth chart,
[http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/paperinfo/tpci/Objective-C.ht...](http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/paperinfo/tpci/Objective-C.html)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Goodbye to an old friend: 1-800-GOOG-411 [duplicate] - nikosdimopoulos
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/goodbye-to-old-friend-1-800-goog-411.html
======
icey
Dup: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1772609>
~~~
nikosdimopoulos
Curious why it wasn't picked up by the submission script.
Mods could you please mark this dead?
~~~
icey
The querystring is different. The matcher here will let any URL through even
if it ends in a non-relevant character (like a trailing slash).
Not much you can really do about it to be honest - I submit through the
bookmarklet and end up submitting a fair number of dupes as well.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Putting a Speed Limit on the Stock Market - dcaisen
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/13/magazine/high-frequency-traders.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&smid=tw-share&pagewanted=all&
======
madmax96
Keep in mind all of the Micro Recessions that are caused by High Frequency
Trading.
------
transfire
Tobin tax on all stock transactions. Problem solved.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Why It Sucks To Be A VC - peter123
http://www.pehub.com/39801/why-it-sucks-to-be-a-vc/
======
davidw
The 12 hour days, the dust that cakes all their clothes and that causes a
wracking cough at night, the crippling heat in their workplaces, the risk of a
cable snapping and taking off a limb (or worse), combined with low pay, I
imagine...
The point of the article is not a bad one, but the title is terrible.
~~~
pookleblinky
I hear children as young as 5 are forced into VC work in Thailand
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Lihkg, forum used by most Hong Kong protesters, under DDoS attack - baylearn
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1477922-20190831.htm
======
hardmaru
LIHKG is asking users to access it via the mobile website and not the app,
which still works. I think since they are using cloudflare their core services
will be difficult to DDoS but the app might be easier to attack.
More info:
[https://twitter.com/fight4hongkong/status/116760817349197414...](https://twitter.com/fight4hongkong/status/1167608173491974145?s=21)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Japan's Latest Rock Star Is A 3D Hologram - Draws Huge Crowds - kkleiner
http://singularityhub.com/2010/11/09/cant-miss-videos-of-japans-3d-hologram-rock-star-hatsune-miku-in-hd/
======
BjornW
Wow! This reminds me of the book Idoru by Willam Gibson.
Idoru on Wikipedia: "In the post Tokyo/San Francisco earthquake world of the
early 21st century, Colin Laney is referred to agents of the aging mega-rock
star Rez (of the musical group Lo/Rez, and seemingly very much styled after
former The Smiths frontman, Morrissey) for a job using his peculiar talent of
sifting through vast amounts of mundane data to find "nodal points" of
particular relevance. Rez has claimed to want to marry a synthetic personality
named Rei Toei, the Idoru (Japanese Idol) of the title, which is apparently
impossible and therefore questioned by his loyal staff, particularly by his
head of security, Blackwell.[...]" source:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idoru>
~~~
zacharycohn
This reminds me of a short cyberpunk story. I can't remember the name/author,
but it was about a world where the next level of entertainment was essentially
generated from a brainmap of the "artist." There was a girl who was
disabled/disfigured/diseased, and she ended up becoming the biggest and most
popular artist ever due to the raw emotions she was conveying.
At the end she transfers her consciousness "to the cloud" and becomes
completely digitized.
Anyone else read this?
~~~
srcerer
Also Gibson <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winter_Market>
~~~
zacharycohn
Bingo, thanks.
------
camtarn
There's a good documentary on Hatsune Miku here - it's in Japanese but with
English subtitles (click the 'CC' logo in the bottom right of the YouTube
player to turn them on): <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBZOlipfjkQ>
I find the Hatsune Miku phenomenon somewhat amusing at the moment, given the
trend of overt Autotuning in pop music - while virtual singers' voices are
getting more realistic, real singers' voices are being manipulated to sound
impossibly accurate and digital.
It's also an interesting study in image and marketing: Crypton really pushed
the concept of associating a character with the voice, as if Vocaloids were
virtual pop stars whose services you could buy, rather than just another
virtual instrument.
~~~
moomba
I guess its the next logical step. If the pop singer doesn't write their own
song, doesn't sing their own song live, and doesn't understand the lyrics; you
might as well just use a hologram.
I never realized how frightening a life sized version of an anime character
is. Still, its an interesting phenomenon.
------
joezydeco
This looks more like rear-projection video (note the starburst in the back of
the stage) or Pepper's Ghost, although the scrim is too vertically oriented to
be that.
Nothing here looks 3D, but of course these videos are very carefully shot and
enhanced from all appearances.
~~~
drinian
You're right, this is the same technology used for the Gorillaz tour a few
years back. In that case, some very talented, real musicians were hiding their
wrinkles and gray hair behind the screens.
------
joelmichael
Here are some famous Miku Hatsune videos.
Po pi po (the vegetable juice one):
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0-2lzA7_Cg>
"Yukkuri shiteitte ne", which means "take it easy", a Japanese meme/philosophy
based on the "yukkuris": <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cHsNnDfmDs>
Disappearance of Miku Hatsune, about someone deleting the vocaloid program
from their computer: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN7mR_ECQjo>
It's worth noting that all of these videos and songs are completely fan-made.
There is no official representative of Miku Hatsune; that's sort of the point.
You can make her sing anything you want. She's more of a platform than a star.
There are several other vocaloid singers besides Miku. The whole thing is very
popular on the Japanese video site Nico Nico Douga.
~~~
JulianMorrison
"Love is War" is my favourite <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dYk5Plhl9Y>
------
zdw
Life imitates anime - anyone else get a Macross Plus flashback about the
concept?
~~~
radley
Sharon Apple will happen:
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWUb04t6_ws>
------
tocomment
We can make computer controlled, real-time holographic displays now? That
seems like bigger news than a rockstar.
Isn't that the holy grail of 3D displays?
~~~
amelim
It's still just a projection onto some sort of medium.
------
Timothee
I wasn't expecting an anime character, but more something like in the movie
S1m0ne (<http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0258153/>).
In that movie, the movie/pop star is computer generated but is a "real" person
and there actually is a scene with a 3D hologram of her on stage.
As someone else mentioned, though I find that to be fascinating, I'm more
interested in what they mean exactly by "3D hologram" and how it works.
------
cullenking
If we are talking a "virtual" rock star, I prefer a hybrid approach, like
sushi k in snowcrash. A real, single musician writing and performing, but
using different mediums - the metaverse in snowcrash, or maybe even holograms
in real life.
------
daten
I previously heard of Hatsune Miku because she did a cover of "Still Alive"
from the computer game "Portal".
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_12b6Om758Q>
~~~
jrockway
Wow, nice. I will never complain about the audience singing along at Jonathan
Coulton concerts again.
------
whalesalad
Reminds me of Genki Rockets, which also has a "vocaloid" singer synthesized
from a couple of female singers. I first found out about this sort of think
when I was working for Henk Rogers (Tetris mogul) down in Honolulu. The office
was always full of really big names from Japan, like the guys from Square
Enix, Nintendo, etc... The guys that made Lumines II were in the office
playing some sick blu-ray footage of a Genki Rockets concert and from that
moment on I was hooked. The DJ was wearing an astronaut suit and there was a
hologram projection of Lumi singing and dancing above the crowd. So sick!
Here is a link to Genki Rockets --
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genki_Rockets>
------
djtumolo
Is this really that different from Gorillaz? They are also cartoon personas
that perform music.
If it gets to the point where an artificial intelligence composes and
performs, then we will be in Gibson's Sprawl.
~~~
camtarn
Slightly different. Gorillaz band members are usually voiced by one real
artist (although this artist can change from album to album), whereas Hatsune
Miku is one step removed - while there was a real voice actress providing the
foundation for her voice, the actual lyrics sung don't pass through any human
mouth.
The persona of Hatsune Miku also seems to have evolved a little more
organically: the style and personalities of Gorillaz are basically driven by
Damon Albarn and Jamie Hewlett; Hatsune Miku started out as an image on a
software box, but got adopted by the internet community who produce videos
based on her, with quite diverse personality and style.
As for artificial intelligence composition, Emily Howell is probably the
closest we've got at the moment:
[http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2009/09/virtual-
composer...](http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2009/09/virtual-composer-
makes-beautiful-musicand-stirs-controversy.ars)
~~~
djtumolo
So do they record and then playback, or is it voiced fully by computers?
~~~
DrPhish
Fully voiced by the computer. Think of a midi keyboard that also has a
'syllable' component for each note: So for example you make her sing the
syllable 'Ka' in middle C. There are also a dozen or so other knobs that
control how it is sung at that particular point in time.
~~~
ars
So the singing is synthesized, but the band is real?
Backwards world :)
------
Vivtek
I have to admit, I'm getting a little uncanny-valley vibe from that. The
movement is too crisp (they've got to be digitizing the movement of a human
dancer?) in combination with the cartoony appearance.
~~~
stcredzero
Yes. I think it would've actually worked better if the toon shading was a bit
more "toony" and the frame rate was lowered to 12. It would seem more
"magical" that way, like the mixed live/cartoon scenes in Mary Poppins.
------
RodgerTheGreat
I'm reminded of NG-Resonance[1] from Deus Ex 2. Of course, in that case, it
was based on a real person.
[1]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex:_Invisible_War_characte...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex:_Invisible_War_characters#NG_Resonance)
------
ENOTTY
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I looked into this when Hatsune Miko
made the rounds on reddit a month or so ago.
I think the technology used is done by a company called Musion.
<http://www.musion.co.uk/>
And it's based on an old visual trick called Pepper's ghost
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepper%27s_ghost>
------
agotterer
An unrelated observation, is the layout of this site completely ripped off of
techcrunch?
------
FiddlerClamp
They really missed the boat by not naming her Jem.
~~~
najirama
That would be truly outrageous.
------
locopati
I want a t-shirt that says 'Gibson FTW!'
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idoru>
EDIT: Looks like BjornW and I had the same idea
------
runjake
This disturbs me beyond words.
It seems like a real loss for humanity and a real gain for special interests
(although it can be argued that humans can be manipulated as easily as this
hologram for such purposes).
In any case, this isn't part of any future I'll be embracing.
~~~
electromagnetic
So a 'performer' that doesn't write their own songs, sing their own songs or
even do their own choreography isn't already a real loss for humanity?
We elevate talentless, brainless schmucks to the pinnacle of our culture
apparently just to watch them fall from grace. How is going one step further
to an artificial performer less human? At least no one is hurt when they go on
a crack/booze/heroin/etc binge. And at least I won't have to hear of some dumb
bitch shaving her head and nigh-on abusing her kids on a daily basis.
------
hasenj
Wow! Japan never ceases to amaze me.
Would be interesting if the 3d hologram can be controlled by a human in real
time.
Although that would probably suck for the self-esteem "I'm not good enough,
they put a fake anime hologram in my place".
------
tomjen3
Hmm, interesting. Can't wait for the first time they have to sue a real flesh
and blood human being over the copyrights to a song by a hologram.
Still, the future its going to be awesome.
~~~
daten
I would guess that with most pop. music performers the copyright to their
songs are owned by the "Record Label" or company that signs their paycheck.
None of the money from current RIAA lawsuits goes back to the artists.
------
waterlesscloud
Meanwhile American labels waste time suing people when they could be rolling
in the dough by producing American vocaloids.
I wonder which one of them will figure that out first?
------
Towle_
Have the Japanese hit such an enormous creative block that they're
investigating our PBS cartoons from 1998 in hope of business plans?
------
NewHighScore
I didn't know it was possible to have video 3d holograms like that! Does
anyone know where to find out more about the technology used?
------
swah
If only the crowds could also be an hologram.
------
cafard
I guess The Archies were ahead of their time.
------
jrnkntl
'Rock'-star? That's not rock.
------
perplexes
I hate the future.
~~~
dkersten
You mean the present?
------
damncabbage
The otaku subculture is getting creepier.
~~~
astrange
By holding pop concerts? Have you seen _anything_ else they do?
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Psy Curve - jellyksong
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=PSY+curve
======
lubos
PSY curve vs Ellen DeGeneres curve
[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=PSY%20curve%20vs%20Elle...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=PSY%20curve%20vs%20Ellen%20DeGeneres%20curve)
~~~
antoni
PSY curve vs Ellen DeGeneres curve vs Batman curve
[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=PSY+curve+vs+Ellen+DeGe...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=PSY+curve+vs+Ellen+DeGeneres+curve+vs+Batman+curve)
Note: it's still 'parametric' but no longer 'person' (in Wolfram Common
properties frame).
------
damian2000
Wonder how this was generated - surely not by hand? Is there a way of taking a
set of splines or similar and creating equations from them, like this?
~~~
ntumlin
And is there a way to create other stuff like this? It would be neat to be
able to draw some simple thing with your mouse on a canvas and then have it
generate an equation that makes it.
~~~
Samuel_Michon
Here are tons more 'person curves':
<http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=person+curve>
They can be created in Mathematica:
[http://mathematica.stackexchange.com/questions/17704/how-
to-...](http://mathematica.stackexchange.com/questions/17704/how-to-create-
new-person-curve)
------
cbraley
This reminds me of this clever creation:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuppers_self-
referential_formul...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuppers_self-
referential_formula)
------
rel
Here are all the "person curve" possibilities
[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=person+curve&lk=2](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=person+curve&lk=2)
------
hcarvalhoalves
I see... so this is what Mr. Wolfram does in his spare time.
------
captainsilencio
pls no
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
How a Blind Person Programs - am391
http://blog.freecodecamp.com/2015/01/a-vision-of-coding-without-opening-your-eyes.html
======
lovelearning
Starting today, every time I feel like ignoring accessibility in my
applications because "no blind person is likely to use them", I'll remember
this blog and punch myself in the face.
~~~
ianlevesque
Or the eyes
------
Lrigikithumer
Holy shit, I admire that guy so much. Being able to program whilst lacking
sight astounds me. I wonder how he got into it.
Becoming blind is one of my biggest fears and I consider programming to be one
of my favourite activities on the planet, I'm happy that if the worst were to
ever happen to me, I wouldn't be completely screwed. However I gotta wonder
how well he's able to hold all his code in his head just off hearing it,
whenever I program I often go back and read and re-read parts I've already
written, I imagine having to hear it over just glancing over it would slow the
whole process down a lot. I know he mentioned that he's gotten very good at
mentally conceptualising his code which no doubt takes a lot of training but
damn, a really large codebase would throw me for a tizz.
~~~
dsuth
This brings up a really interesting point - how do blind people visualise
code, conceptually? When people talk about stacks, heaps, lists etc, there's
generally a visual representation that goes along with it. I wonder what kind
of abstractions blind people use.
~~~
qznc
Are there any blind compiler/interpreter hackers? A programming language
optimized for the blind would make an interesting esolang [0]. I guess a REPL
works great. Does Forth or Lisp read better to the blind? Can you do syntax
"coloring" in sound? Are static types helpful or is type inference prefered?
Would they like an editor like ed?
So many questions ...
[0] [http://esolangs.org/](http://esolangs.org/)
~~~
ndarilek
Check out Emacspeak[0] for one of the best audio coding environments I've
worked with. Not a big fan of Raman's "ignore decades of accessibility work
and run Emacs apps for everything!" approach, but based on my recollections of
15 years or so ago, it was one of the best coding environments I've worked
with. It did a sort of audio syntax highlighting with different voices for
different tokens, and more or less nailed auditory bracket/paren matching.
I can't for the life of me code in any Lisp-like language. Too much nesting,
and whereas speech synthesis inserts pauses at commas and other punctuation
marks, Lisp's lack of them makes it hard to parse a heavily-nested function
call by ear. This is true to a lesser extent with Haskell and its emphasis on
., $ and other operators that change how a function call is structured.
As always, opinions expressed are my own, and shouldn't be taken as a
statement of how collective blind people do X. I'm one of many, so please
don't walk away from this thinking Lisps are hard for blind folks. They're
tough for me, and above are _my_ particular reasons why.
0: [https://emacspeak.sf.net](https://emacspeak.sf.net)
------
yaddayadda
>Fortunately, some fellow campers at the Free Code Camp were sympathetic
towards my plight and volunteered to transcribe all these slides for me. This
offer left me 'flabbergasted', as our dear western neighbors across the sea
would say.
Many ions ago, I volunteered for an organization called "Recordings for the
Blind and Dyslexic" (now known as Learning Ally -
[http://www.learningally.org/](http://www.learningally.org/)). Groups of
individuals (mostly retired professors and other students) would record
textbooks for college students. It was all volunteer and donation based. It
would typically take days to weeks from starting a book until the recording
was ready.
I loved almost all of it. The one thing I didn't like was that we would read a
book in shifts and you wouldn't always be working on the same book from shift
to shift, so you might read scene three of a play one shift, then the next day
read chapter seven of a calculus 2 textbook. Regardless, it was always
interesting and we always knew that there were students benefiting from our
effort. As an extremely nearsighted child, one of my fears growing up was that
I would grow to be so nearsighted I would be functionally blind, so it was a
little personal for me.
Since then, I've been in charge of 508 conformance on many different websights
[1]. I have always appreciated the sensory-challenged sharing how they are, or
are not, able to use websites. I never cease to be amazed at the human ability
to adapt and overcome such challenges!
[1] Freudian slip that I noticed but decided was worth sharing ;-)
~~~
steveax
Also, Bookshare [1] has 300k+ accessible titles.
[1] [https://www.bookshare.org/](https://www.bookshare.org/)
------
cturner
I'd like to know: what is the most comfortable posture for coding once you no
longer have to look at a screen? I've wondered whether a syntax-sparse
language like iolanguage might allow you to code entirely by voice and ear,
with no need for keyboard. For those of us with vision, imagine having a
lounge with a large screen on the wall. You can talk into your headset as you
pace around, or lie on the couch.
~~~
zersiax
Technically I can already sort of do that in any language. Do keep in mind
that all I need to interact with a computer is a keyboard and some way to hear
audio ...so I can in fact lay back on the couch with a keyboard on my lap and
code away. In fact ... I do that all the time ;) I can't check my work using
braille that way though, which is kind of essential with very complex code
~~~
yaddayadda
@zersiax
\- Thank you so much for sharing!
\- You mention,
>Premier tools that coders use every day, like the IntelliJ editor, as well as
all its offshoots (PHPStorm, WebStorm, PyCharm), are completely inaccessible,
due simply to the fact that the developers of these programs have not adhered
to the accessibility guidelines. They've failed to give screen readers textual
labels or accessibility descriptions to work with. The same goes for
applications like SourceTree, which is slowly getting better, but is still a
pain to use.
Have you tried VIM, eMacs, Sublime or Brackets; if so, how would you rate
them?
What is your experience with HN's interface? I know I frequently wish there
were more visual indicators of new/unread responses, but I can at least scan
the beginning of messages and skip ones that I've previously read; do you have
a corresponding way to skip responses?
~~~
zersiax
No, I have to read through all the comments over and over and quickly arrow
along when I notice its a comment I've already seen. As for your editor
questions: Brackets is sort of usable, but too much of a pain to actually be
useful. Vim ...I really have no idea how to use it, and I think thats not a
'being blind' thing :P I should look into it more Sublime is, like the
IntelliJ, completely inaccessible Emacs works well regarding you can get your
braille display hooked up to Linux, which is a little tricky for me in my
current configuration. Also, there's Emacspeak which I am having a hard time
getting to run because I don't speak Lisp :)
~~~
jcr
Do you have trouble with voting up either comments or stories on HN?
If you check out the HN page source you'll notice the HTML anchors for voting
are essentially empty save for an empty HTML DIV element with it's background
image set to the arrow icon. Needless to say, the way it's designed is dead
wrong and highly problematic for systems like terminal text browsers.
~~~
zersiax
Oddly enough no, I can read the vote up buttons just fine and should in fact
use them more :) maybe some JS behind the scenes that is taking care of it
------
madethemcry
That blog post is very interesting. I really enjoyed the reading and must
admit that I should spend more time on accessibility.
The speed of the screen reader Zersiax uses is unbelievable fast. I can't
understand a single word:
[https://soundcloud.com/freecodecamp/zersiaxs-screen-
reader](https://soundcloud.com/freecodecamp/zersiaxs-screen-reader)
~~~
sergiosgc
Wow! Just, wow! I had skipped hearing the screen reader on my first pass on
the article. It is amazing how human audition can parse that speech rate.
If that rate were the norm, I'd be classified as hearing impaired. I can't
identify a single word.
~~~
hueving
Not hearing impaired, just mentally disabled. :)
------
nothrabannosir
Hey guys a note from the author on Twitter:
Florian @zersiax 2 hours ago
mate, could you comment on there that I created a channel on freenode called
#zersiax if peeps have questions?
Florian @zersiax 2 hours ago
seems I posted too many comments on HN , its blocking me from sending more :)
and I do want to reply o all these
[https://twitter.com/zersiax/status/560810466789044224](https://twitter.com/zersiax/status/560810466789044224)
[https://twitter.com/zersiax/status/560810548263407617](https://twitter.com/zersiax/status/560810548263407617)
\---
There's something beautiful about a typo from a visually impaired person :)
------
mickeyp
A friend of mine, a programmer, lost his sight. He was an Emacs user and could
more or less continue programming thanks to Emacspeak, a package for Emacs
that alters the voice depending on the syntactic construct of the word it is
reading. It goes without saying that without Emacs and Emacspeak he would have
had an uphill struggle returning to his job.
------
zersiax
Wow ...so many questions ...I'm not sure where to begin answering all of these
:) HN is throttling me, so please come find me on #zersiax on freenode to
discuss this if you have more questions :) I hope this goes through ...
~~~
Raphmedia
As a web developper, I would LOVE if you could compile a list of things I
should do to make your life easier. I have read the best practices. However, I
would love to have a list that comes from you. What are some websites that are
doing it well?
~~~
zersiax
Please come find me on IRC or twitter for this :) any list I could draw up
will leave you with a lot of questions, and asking those would just get
frustrating in a medium like this. If you rather use another form of
communication, please let me know and I'll see what I can do
------
krick
I never had a chance to talk to somebody who was blind all his life and I've
always been curious about that. It seems pretty obvious, that blind person can
be dreaming, because hearing or smell are senses as much as eyesight is. I
cannot comprehend the opposite: does person, blind all his life actually
understand what "seeing" means? Of course he knows from the communicating with
the others, that he lacks some ability, which most people have, but does he
"feel" it somehow? Especially it is interesting with well-read people: writers
often spend quite a large portion of the book describing how something
_looks_. So, literate blind person must be well aware of words like "color",
"beauty" (addressing the look of something), "bright", "dark", "dull",
"picture" and such. But if he never ever _saw_ — do all these words mean
anything to him? Does he have idea of what it is like "to see"?
~~~
jareds
I have been almost totally blind all my life. I have some light perception and
from talking to people the nearest I can come up with for colors is that black
is when it is totally dark, gray is a normal room with lights turned on, and
white is looking directly at the son. I associate colors with objects such as
grass being green, brown being dirt, blue being the ocean etc but this isn't
actually useful information.
~~~
krick
Thank you for the response. I don't know if having some light perception can
be called "totally blind", because the sense of seeing isn't totally
unfamiliar to you, probably it's more like "very-very bad eyesight", am I
right?
But still, as I understand you somewhat have a grasp of what color actually
is, it isn't just "some word other people use", is it?
But what of notion of visual beauty? Does it mean something to you, when
somebody says that this picture, or woman, or sculpture is beautiful? Can you
tell if sculpture is "beautiful" or not after touching it with your fingers?
If so, would it be meaningful to discuss something like that with your seeing
friends or you would be more likely addressing something completely different
from what they do?
And a couple more questions, if you don't mind. Are you completely functional
in well-known environment? For example, how hard cooking in your own kitchen
is for you? And how much of a problem it is if somebody was working in the
kitchen before you and left some items, like knife, in the wrong places? How
hard it is to you to move in completely unfamiliar environment? Like, say, can
you travel to some distant new location completely on your own, without a dog
or another human? How long would it take to being accustomed to the new
environment, like when being guests at somebody's place? Could you take a walk
in the forest or a big park on your own? Would you feel insecure being there
for the first time?
I'm sorry if I'm bothering you, it's just I really, really wanted to ask all
these questions and more for quite a long time.
~~~
zersiax
Number of questions :) I'll see if I can answer them, at least how I think
about it. :) For me, color is abstract enough for me to be unable to imagine
it. Asociating colors with objects is something a lot of blind people do, but
it turns into parameters on an object that way. Color = blue; there's no
description ... blue = null pointer exception; As for visual beauty, this is
incredibly difficult at least for me to fully comprehend, because you sighties
have the annoying habit of changing what you think is beautiful every so many
years :P Beauty might be the smoothness of the sculpture, its simetry, its
proportions being exactly right. That is the only, somewhat clinical,
description of beauty I can think of, at least visual beauty. I must say that
when it comes to beauty in humans I tend to disregard it completely. People
look like what they look like and that is subject to change anyway as time
goes on, no use worrying about it if I can't see it myself anyway. I myself
live on my own, therefore I am forced to cook, clean, do my own laundry etc.
if I like it or not. This, like a lot of other things, is something you learn
to live with. I can safely say that yes, I am fully functional in my own home
:) Changes in the kitchen area can be a little annoying, but would never
severely throw me off. There's only a finite amount of place the knives
could've gone, to use your example. I tend to lay out everything I need before
starting to cook though, to avoid ...less than ideal situations when such a
thing happens. Unfamiliar environments are a bit of a tricky thing. You are
right in assuming a dog is an incredible help in such situations,I am
hopefully receiving my first dog some time this year but I see time and time
again how this affects the confidence and independence of blind people I know.
To answer your question though, it really depends on the person. Some people
have a very good sense of direction and wouldn't have a problem in a forest or
would get used to another's house quickly enough. I myself have a bit more
trouble with that, but I do hop onto a train to an unfamiliar city if I know
someone will be at the final station to pick me up and take me where I need to
go, thats not something every blind person would do. It depends on a huge
number of factors.
------
fiatjaf
This audio is the most unintelligible block of sound I've ever heard, but it
made my day much happier to know you can understand it and use it nicely.
I will try to use the HTML5 accessibility tags and attributes whenever I can
from now on (I currently don't even know what is there about accessibility to
be implemented).
------
simi_
What a nice chap. I like and adhere to the opinion prevalent in this thread
that we should pay more attention to Accessibility. I personally find I'm
conditioned to ignore people with different needs than me when I design
products, and this is an eye-opening example.
_apologies for the horrible pun_
------
jrochkind1
> I therefore have to keep looking for tutorials, programs and tools that are
> accessible, and cannot simply pick up any off-the-shelf IDE.
Another advantage of the ruby community's general commitment to produce a
language that _can_ be written in any old text editor. I think Java long past
that point, you really _need_ an effective IDE with certain features that it
knows about Java to be effective in Java.
Making sure things are still doable with a plain text editor gives developers
a lot more options (including for developing new editing environment
improvements), instead of locking them in to certain IDEs. A lot more options
for accessibility reasons or any reasons.
------
dugmartin
I helped rewrite Narrator, the Windows built in screen reader, for Vista.
After we had a basic version working I tried turning off my monitor and using
it to write code. I gave up quickly.
------
neverartful
Several years back I worked with a team that had a blind developer. The team
was transitioning to Java. The blind developer told me in a meeting that she
was having trouble doing something in Eclipse. I told her that I would go with
her to her desk to help diagnose the problem. Watching a blind person use
Eclipse with a screen reader was simultaneously awe-inspiring (the screen
reader part) and horrifying (the Eclipse part). Needless to say, Eclipse was
not well suited for the blind.
~~~
zersiax
Please, elaborate on this. I tend to use Eclipse as my primary IDE and am
wondering what the blind person had trouble with, what screenreader they were
using and how long ago this happened.
~~~
neverartful
This occurred in 2009 and unfortunately I don't recall any of the details. I
only remember that it was running on Windows. I was blown away watching her
use a screen reader for doing all sorts of things. I know that some of the
developers on the team had originally worked with COBOL on mainframe or AS400.
I don't know how well (if at all) 3270 or 5250 terminal emulators work with
screen readers, but I strongly suspect that COBOL source code was easier to
manage than Java in Eclipse.
------
js2
I turned on OS X's built-in screen reader, then set the rate to 100 (the
fastest it goes). It's still not as fast NVDA.
It's interesting that he's using Windows 8 and I'd have liked if he'd talked
about that briefly. I'd always thought that Apple was way ahead of the other
vendors on this accessibility, but perhaps with third-party software available
on the desktop for screen reading that's not the case.
~~~
zersiax
Even though the built-in screenreader mac OS X uses blows Narrator out of the
water currently, it has a long way to go to compete with 3rd-party
screenreaders on the Windows platform, especially when it comes to
productivity and actually getting work done. The advantage of VoiceOver is
that it is baked into the OS and therefore also the recovery media, making it
far easier to reinstall the entire OS from scratch. Thiscan be done in Windows
as well, but only recently were the tools created to actually allow this semi-
reliably. On the mobile front, Apple does outperform the competition by a
rather broad margin.
------
chinpokomon
A decade ago, I got to visit one of the accessibility labs at Microsoft. I'm
not terribly surprised that Visual Studio works well as there are ocularly
impaired developers at the company. I had the opportunity to speak with those
who ran the lab and observe how someone used these screen readers first hand.
------
SwellJoe
A friend of mine is a blind developer. He built his own screenreader for
Android (
[https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=info.spielproj...](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=info.spielproject.spiel)
), because he was unhappy with the existing options. I haven't yet gotten over
being amazed, but I always knew he was really bright, so I should just get
over assuming not having sight would prevent him from being an effective
developer.
He has ambitions to do hardware hacking, but has been thwarted by difficulties
with identifying parts (i.e. resistors are color-coded), among other things.
I've been meaning to sit down with him sometime and work on _something_.
------
V-2
Nice one! I can recommend this thread on StackOverflow as well:
[http://stackoverflow.com/questions/118984/how-can-you-
progra...](http://stackoverflow.com/questions/118984/how-can-you-program-if-
youre-blind)
------
bellacodes
The absolute limit of comprehension for sighted people is 10 syllables per
second. Blind people, however, can comprehend speech sped up to 25 syllables
per second.
This sample is playing at 16 syllables per second and it already sounds like
COMPLETE gibberish to me:
[https://rdouglasfields.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/speech16-...](https://rdouglasfields.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/speech16-syllables-
a-sec.wav)
([http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-can-some-
blind...](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-can-some-blind-people-
process/))
Makes you wonder who the "impaired" ones are.
------
queryly
Thank you so much for your insightful post and prospective.
I have a question on how you imagine/think. People with eye sigh often think
with pictures. Even thinking about abstract things like programming. I often
visualize how a data structure looks and how it interacts with other code. I
have found it tremendous useful as I can replay/test such scenario in my head.
Do you have similar experience when you think? Do you construct mental picture
(such as circle, a binary tree) in your head? What is it like?
~~~
zersiax
that question is both very easy and incredibly difficult to answer. Yes, I
visualize code the way you guys do, but not with pictures. Let us take a
2-dimentional array as an example. I tend to visualize this as a table. A
table, for me, is a construct with columns and rows. Naturally, I do not have
a spacial picture of this, the closest I can get is a tactile representation
of either a chess board or a scrabble board. In both cases, a single array
index becomes a tile, which makes me able to visualize it. But just like
dreams, I would not use a visual frame of reference here because that simply
isn't an option, it is a tactile representation that I somehow translate into
a mental ...'picture' for lack of a better word. If you think that is tough,
think of how incredibly tough it is for me to visualize CSS ;)
~~~
queryly
Thank you for answering my question. I think I now get a sense of thinking
using tactile representation. I can imagine it is incredible hard to work on
things that don't have 1-to-1 mapping between visual and tactile.
It is a fascinating topic. I hope to have a chance to understand how brain
really works in my lifetime.
Thank again!
------
4ad
Related: BSDTalk episode with a blind BSD user[1]. It's about many things, not
how blind people deal with computers, but it offers some great insights
nevertheless. She finds VAXen much easier to deal with than PCs, and CLIs much
more accessible than GUI screen readers.
[http://bsdtalk.blogspot.co.at/2008/03/bsdtalk143-bsd-
hobbies...](http://bsdtalk.blogspot.co.at/2008/03/bsdtalk143-bsd-hobbiest-
deborah-norling.html)
~~~
LeonM
That download link seems to be broken, can anyone upload that cast somewhere?
~~~
4ad
Mirror:
[https://archive.org/details/bsdtalk143](https://archive.org/details/bsdtalk143)
------
waynecochran
A blind student took my programming tools course last spring and together we
wrote an accessible sudoku app for the Mac:
[https://github.com/wcochran/accessiblesudoku](https://github.com/wcochran/accessiblesudoku)
Apple usually has fantastic documentation, but we had to experiment a lot to
figure out the accessibility API.
------
blackRust
I imagine a purely text-based terminal set up running on a specially crafted
host OS/VM that does the text-to-speech would be a fantastic solution. You can
browse the web, email, twitter! I'm not sure how CLI browsers handle JS?
If this existed would there any good reason to be using a GUI at all (for a
Visually Impaired Person)?
~~~
jareds
I think Emacspeak is close to what your talking about.
[http://emacspeak.sourceforge.net/](http://emacspeak.sourceforge.net/) The
reason I don't use it is because I could never get it to work quite right so
just continued using Windows. It's a lot easier to use Windows, Eclipse,
Outlook, Office, etc even if it is somewhat less productive then Emacspeak
would be. The amount of time I'd have to spend working around how to integrate
with my co-workers Windows based setups if I used Linux with no GUI makes it a
non-starter.
------
ckuttruff
Really curious about how a linux environment compares in terms of usability
for the blind. zersiax, are you using windows primarily because of the
toolchain you need for work / school, or did you find linux lacking in terms
of its support for your needs?
------
20kleagues
Are there frameworks to automatically analyse html for accessibility and
perhaps provide a certain rating based on set guidelines? I think that might
be a very interesting project to work on if such a thing does not exist.
~~~
steveax
There are automated tools, but in my experience they mostly pick up the easy
things (missing alt attributes, etc.) The harder bits are focus and
notification in SPAs. Read the WCAG docs [1] and the and WAI ARIA docs [2]
stick to them. Then test with a screenreader.
[1] [http://www.w3.org/TR/WCAG20/](http://www.w3.org/TR/WCAG20/)
[2]
[http://www.w3.org/WAI/intro/aria.php](http://www.w3.org/WAI/intro/aria.php)
------
r00nk
I actually had an idea for this. What if blind users could wear little braille
terminals? Like, braile is constructed of a series of dots, so why not have
like a bracer that has a array of dots that poke the skin?
~~~
zersiax
it might work, but the nerves found in the fingertips are far more sensitive
than anywhere else on the body. This might be trainable though, I don't know
~~~
FreeFull
The tongue is incredibly sensitive, I've seen some work on giving blind people
the ability to have low-resolution vision by having an array of electrodes on
the tongue (before the tongue, they used the back, but that's not anywhere
near as sensitive) and a webcam.
------
darkFunction
Wow, the audio example... It's like a solid wall of pure data.
~~~
elzr
Yes! I guess I'm experiencing an _awe_ at symbolic prowess comparable to that
of only-functionally-literate people staring for the first time at the syntax-
colored/indented walls of text used by programmers.
I had to download the audio example and lower the playback speed to a third of
what it was before it started making sense! It is a reading of an earlier
_draft_ of the first bit of the post, btw, so there are several divergences
which make it even harder to try to match text to speech.
------
k__
I knew a blind programmer back in the days.
We always joked he did our UI.
~~~
Sanddancer
A housemate of mine works with a blind web dev. The only real problem she has
with is making sure certain css divs appear correctly on the screen, which she
overcomes by asking friends, etc if it looks correct.
------
fiatjaf
Log of the Q&A session at #zersiax channel:
[http://pastebin.com/FUQUnXVR](http://pastebin.com/FUQUnXVR)
------
Throwaway1224
I was in an ACM programming competition in 2004(?) where one of the
competitors was blind. It was hosted by LSU.
I always wondered what happened to that dude.
------
bobosha
Thanks for sharing, learned something valuable today
------
gcb0
> If left paren x equals five
you have a bug there :)
also, why not use different sounds for ( [ { etc?
would a different beep for each instead of "left paren" make life easier?
~~~
zersiax
It might. You are putting your finger on a rather experimental way of browsing
through code, something which Emacspeak currently does reliably as the only
editor I am aware of. Rather than using sound fx, it uses difference in the
TTSvoice to denote different syntax properties, kind of like audible syntax
highlighting
------
lohengramm
Really interesting, specially the audio. I can't understand a single word. In
fact, im far from it!
------
lsiebert
Yeah, I will definitely try to do more to implement screen reader
accessibility in web apps I build.
------
mattmurdog
Really cool. Thank you for sharing.
------
ruben94
wow, respect.
------
Kenji
Wow! Those screen readers are fast (his example
[https://soundcloud.com/freecodecamp](https://soundcloud.com/freecodecamp))! I
barely understood a word. I didn't know that.
It's a shame that so many programs don't follow the accessibility guidelines,
but it's just too damn easy to forget about the disabled if you aren't. But
this article was an eye-opener for me (no pun intended).
~~~
superobserver
Since he has a whole occipital lobe to devote to parsing that, I don't feel so
bad that my auditory processing isn't quite up to snuff. Reminds me of speed
reading, though. What is the wpm on that? Maybe I'll ask him on freenode.
~~~
malnourish
Is there evidence to suggest that a brain is that plastic? Genuinely curious.
I feel like the "blind people have super-powered other senses" is an urban
legend, like the 10% of your brain misconception.
~~~
DennisP
The brain seems to be pretty darn plastic. There have been experiments with
giving people whole new sensory inputs, and finding that the brain adapted to
them quite well. Two examples:
\- A grid of electrodes on the tongue, activating with a pattern fed from a
camera. After a while, blind experimental subjects reported actually seeing
what the grid displayed.
\- A belt of buzzers hooked to a compass. The buzzer closest to magnetic north
was always active. After a couple months, subjects weren't really conscious of
the buzzing, but got a really good mental map of their environment and their
position in it. They could navigate unfamiliar environments much better than
before...and then much worse, when the experiment ended.
There are also some well-known cases of blind people using echolocation pretty
effectively, without any special hardware.
Don't have links handy, unfortunately.
~~~
tormeh
This. Make any prediction of how advanced the brain is, then double that, at
the very very least. It is barely short of magical. Even single neurons can do
processing way more advanced than the artificial ones we use in machine
learning. The rest of the body is honestly quite disappointing in comparison.
Even the immune system and DNA/RNA mechanisms seem trivial and those are
pretty dope compared to most other things.
~~~
sfilipov
_Even single neurons can do processing way more advanced than the artificial
ones we use in machine learning._
How does that work? A single neuron is a single neuron. My understanding is
that the brain has _lots_ of neurons and also they are assembled in certain
"NN architectures" that are far more advanced than what we currently have. But
I think that if you go the the single neuron level then they are pretty
similar in terms of problem solving capabilities.
~~~
tormeh
Well, a neuron can either fire or not fire; 0 or 1. For a neuron to fire,
enough of its' synapses need to fire. How likely a single neuron is to do so
based on an incoming action potential varies over time according to Hebbian
learning. Once x synapses fire, the input is linearly summed to determine if
the neuron as a whole fires. That's a neat abstraction and it is pretty
descriptive. But it's also a little too neat to be true. The summation is, of
course, not linear and neurons react to incoming signals even if they don't
fire. How likely a neuron is to fire also depends on how much it has fired
recently, as the synapses "get tired" (the concentration of certain molecules
are temporarily exhausted), but for some neurons, likelihood increases as a
result of previous firings before it decreases. Hebbian learning increases the
strength of the connection to neurons that participates in successfully firing
the neuron, but connections under a certain strength threshold decay with
time, while those over it are stable (inability to create these stable
connections is connected to alzheimers).
That's what I remember and I just took some neuroscience courses. There are
multiple books out there attempting only to describe behaviour mathematically,
let alone describing the underlying mechanisms, which is true "here be
dragons" territory.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Where/How do I find a good salesperson? - ashraful
I am a freelance web designer based in Dhaka, Bangladesh.<p>Since I am in Bangladesh and most clients are in the US, I find it difficult to find and negotiate new clients. Email is not really as good as face-to-face interaction.<p>To help me out in this regard, I am looking for a salesperson who lives in the US and would be willing to work for commission.<p>I was wondering if HN could help guide me on where/how to look for a good salesperson.
======
selectnull
Although we are not in the same situation, I can help you with some tips. I
work for a web development company in Croatia and recently we started to
search for a _great_ salesperson.
We wrote a post on our blog <http://www.logit.hr/blog/logithr-hiring-it-sales-
specialist/> describing what we do and what we don't want in a salesperson.
(the site is in Croatian, but that post is in English). We ran a marketing
campaign advertising that post on several ad networks, including Google
Display Network (AdSense). It's intentionally provocative, but it did produce
the results we expected, namely, a few good men worth interviewing. We treat
hiring the same way we treat any other marketing ad. We want to attract great
people, therefore we make an effort to make it look really good. Of course,
that is only a first step in hiring process: the next step is an interview
part, which is another topic altogether.
The main point is this: first you need to find _quality_ people to talk to and
you need to sell them your idea. Advertising a job post might be one good way
to do that.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
How a Chinese National Gained Access to Arizona’s Terror Center - Torgo
http://www.propublica.org/article/lizhong-fan
======
shrike
I read the article and as near as I can tell a Chinese person worked in
Arizona's 'Intelligence Fusion Center' and then left suddenly.
That's it. No evidence of any impropriety, no charges were filed, nothing. I
don't understand the reason for the article.
------
Torgo
Chinese national, not an American citizen. Appears to have bypassed background
checks and didn't have the proper clearance, apparently because everybody
thought somebody else did it. One day unannounced he pays cash for a ticket to
china, flies back with two laptops and hard drives, the work computers he left
behind have been wiped. Fusion center tells DHS, but DHS sits on the info and
doesn't tell the public. I am seeing a lot newsworthy here.
------
lotsofmangos
He probably left because he had a security detail that followed him to the
toilet. He was hired for being a specialist in something, then not trusted.
That sounds pretty annoying to deal with on a daily basis, no matter what the
pay is like.
------
gnix
Much ado about nothing
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
The Acronym School of Software Design - coderholic
http://www.coderholic.com/the-acronym-school-of-software-design/
======
edw519
The Acronym School of What NOT To Do:
NIY - (Not Invented Here) - Only use your own libraries because nothing else
can be trusted.
CYA - (Cover Your Ass) - Instead of fixing it, just document that someone else
wrote it.
FUBAR - (Fouled Up Beyond All Recognition) - Whine about it instead of fixing
it.
RTFM - (Read the Fucking Manual) - Make it so complicated that you need a
manual to use it.
JIT - (Just in Time) - Hit your deadlines and clean up your mess later.
SDLC - (Systems Development Life Cycle) - Only 6 more months of analysis
before the first line of code is written.
FTF - (First Things First) - Make it scale before you write it.
WWTS - (Who Wrote This Shit?) - See FUBAR.
~~~
raganwald
We can test your assertion by counting the WTFs/min. generated by projects
avoiding these acronyms.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Collaboration just got a lot easier, see how... - csallen
http://taskforce.posterous.com/collaboration-just-got-a-lot-easier-see-how
======
ryandvm
We use Google Apps (Premier) for our work. It still boggles my mind that
Google hasn't even bothered applying a thin layer of enterprise social to the
Tasks list. It would be a killer feature (up there with group calendaring).
EDIT: Hmm. I see this integrates with Google Apps. Would be interested in an
invite code for our domain if you're giving them out.
~~~
niccolop
It's a browser extension, so will work on any Google Apps account - your
colleagues will just need to download the app. Email me at: nic@taskforceapp -
and we'll get one over.
~~~
BrainScraps
It may be a bit late for this, but maybe you should implement a separate
invite code for HN readers. Just so that you can measure who is coming
directly from HN and who is coming from Twitter activity. A thought, take it
or leave it.
------
rhizome
Just on first blush, the title of this post does not make me want to visit the
site.
------
pinko
Without an invite code, this is indistinguishable from vaporware.
~~~
niccolop
tweet us @taskforce and we'll get one over. Thanks!
~~~
pinko
Thank you. My intent was not actually to beg for a code so much as snarkily
(sorry!) point out my annoyance at the need for one -- but I appreciate the
gesture and will check it out.
~~~
pig
People who complain about a product that they have no intention of becoming a
customer of are really annoying, especially in a startup focused community.
Invite method is needed to ensure smooth rollout and scaling. Bugs can be
fixed as reports come in, without getting the same bug report from 1000
people.
~~~
rhizome
Why are they annoying? Don't you want to be able to acquire customers who
originally had no intention of joining/buying/etc.? To do this, you'd be well-
advised to _at least_ take non-customers' opinions at face value without
rejecting them out of hand. Reasons why people won't give you business can be
just as useful as reasons why they will. Perhaps more.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Can someone explain to me advantage of the Ipad over ASUS EEE multi-touch - perokreco
I looked at both, and Asus tablet seems infinitely more capable, having things like memory-card readers, USB, a proper OS, a keyboard, and all that at approximately the same price. Can someone explain to me, why the Ipad deserves a second look?<p>Edit:The EEE in question http://www.asus.com/product.aspx?P_ID=KIqtSJ1aVsmVpeqS
======
threepointone
The interface, mainly. Windows (or OSX, for that matter) based tablets have
tried have failed for years. The iPhone/iPad OS is built from the ground up to
be tablet/finger friendly. Remember, the iPad is NOT a laptop/netbook
replacement in the traditional sense. The phrase 'media device' keeps popping
up in my head.
~~~
perokreco
Could you elaborate on Windows 7 finger-friendliness? What kind of a media-
device does not accept memory cards or doesn't have a camera or a USB slot?
~~~
threepointone
Never said Windows 7 was finger-friendly, and I don't think I'm qualified to
comment on it, but imo, the win7 is simply geared to replace the mouse actions
with a finger, and that's not helpful at all.
And from where I'm looking, portable physical media storage is fast becoming
non-essential(obsolete?) with respect to devices that are used for consumption
of music, the web, books, etc; ie- CONSUMER devices. eg- laptops, ebook
readers, mp3 players, etc.
I'm a tech-savvy person, and I've had a broken dvd-drive on my laptop for
about 7 months now. I've never found a reason to fix it; I'm as surprised by
that as anybody else, I suppose. I play movie dvds on my console, and the eye-
fi card on the camera is handy as hell.
------
cmallen
In future, could you link the alternative product in question? I understand
that it sounds incredibly lazy but I tend to scan many threads at a time and
going on a google-hunt for something _you_ wish to discuss makes my panda cry.
Not to mention that finding obscure taiwanese/chinese products can actually be
mildly non-trivial at times.
~~~
perokreco
I would never consider Asus EEE obscure, are they not popular in the US? I
remember seeing them a lot while traveling and weren't they the ones who
started the whole netbook craze? They are the first thing that comes to mind
when someone mentions a netbook.
~~~
cmallen
>I would never consider Asus EEE obscure
I'd never heard of a multi-touch model before.
This is utterly beside the point. I just want the title of the post to link to
the subject under discussion.
I don't want meta-discussion hand-wringing.
Just a link. This is YCNews, not the US Senate.
------
anothermike
all the iPhone apps, not to mention the ones that will be built for the bigger
screen and more capable hardware.
~~~
perokreco
All the iPhone apps in a closed enviroment compared to all the Windows apps?
~~~
threepointone
perokreco, you asked a question, and anothermike answered it. No need to be
snarky and go on a tangent.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Bits of Destruction Hit the Book Publishing Business: Part 2 - mblakele
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php
======
mblakele
Part 1 at <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=707554>
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
NixOS NixCon 2015 talks (recorded by CCC video team) - iElectric2
https://media.ccc.de/c/nixcon2015?sort=date
======
manveru
Really some inspiring stuff, especially disnix is something I'll have to try
soon.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
WWW 2007 Program (which papers do you like? which ones might make for compelling startups?) - amichail
http://www2007.org/program/alldays.php
======
amichail
To get things started, here's one that I like:
A Content-Driven Reputation System for the Wikipedia
<http://www2007.org/program/paper.php?id=692>
<http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/~luca/papers/07/wikiwww2007.ps>
<http://www.cse.ucsc.edu/~luca/papers/06/ucsc-crl-06-18.pdf>
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Necessary Vitamin D intake is 10x higher than currently recommended by the NIH - jtmarmon
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/28768407/
======
jmnicolas
I am weary of mega dosing vitamin D to 8000 IU as recommended in the article.
I am currently taking a bit less than 3000 IU a day and don't plan to increase
it unless more research is made.
From the book 'The Perfect Health Diet' :
> _25OHD levels after abundant summer sun exposure, as in lifeguards, peak
> between 45 and 80 nanograms per milliliter. Outdoor workers in the tropics
> typically have 25OHD levels between 48 and 80 nanograms per milliliter.
> These tropical outdoor workers get too much vitamin D._
> _People in South India with 25OHD levels of 89 nano-grams per milliliter
> have a threefold higher rate of heart attack._
> _Lifeguards in Israel develop kidney stones twenty times more often than the
> general population._
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Freelance programming - do I need to register or get a license? - freelancing
Do I need to do anything official such as register with the state or setup some separate bank account to be able to do freelance programming and accept payments?<p>I searched and read that unless you incorporate you will need to report taxes as a sole proprietor. Do I need some legal stuff to work as a freelance programmer?<p>I am located in the US, and have a green card. I have a fulltime job and am looking at doing freelance on the side.
======
bradleyjoyce
It really depends on how serious you will be about it... if it's just sort of
a hobby and you're making a few hundred bucks then there isn't much to worry
about... but if you're out there raking in bank and marketing your services
"as a business" then that is a different story... most states/cities would
require you to register your "business" as a sole proprietorship. You will
also need to make sure you keep good records of all the freelance income and
make sure you're paying the right amount of taxes. Depending on how much money
you expect to make freelancing, you'll probably want to talk to a good CPA to
make sure you cover all your bases.
------
CWIZO
You might get a better response if you tell us where you are located.
~~~
alnayyir
Unless he meant to post to psychicne.ws
~~~
freelancing
Sorry about that. I updated my post. I am in the US, have a green card, full
time job, looking at doing this on the side.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Buffett-backed unicorn Snowflake nets $3.4B in record-breaking IPO - bishalb
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/snowflake-ipo-biggest-ever-software-listing-2020-9-1029593272
======
nabla9
> Buffett agreed to invest upwards of $550 million
Berkshire. Buffet has delegated most of his investment decisions to Ted and
Todd and management to Jain and Abel.
$550 million is 0.1% of Berkshire assets and 0.14% of total equity, this is
not the level of decision that needs much attention from Buffet.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
EU Parliament recommends Jabber instead of WhatsApp and checks signal - tannhaeuser
https://www.en24.news/2019/10/eu-parliament-recommends-jabber-instead-of-whatsapp-and-checks-signal.html
======
dbrgn
I don't think a centralized and by-default unencrypted XMPP server for all MPs
would be a good solution.
Signal isn't ideal either, as it requires sharing the phone number.
I'm biased since I work for Threema, but any decentralized end-to-end
encrypted messenger that does not require a phone number would be a good fit
in my eyes.
[https://www.securemessagingapps.com/](https://www.securemessagingapps.com/)
gives a good overview on the tradeoffs.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
A conversation with Steph Smith, Growth Marketer, Writer and Indie Maker - mariedm
https://womenmake.com/posts/ZmVO1oHJUE/ama-with-steph-smith
======
mariedm
Hi HN, we did an AMA for Women Make (the community I created to support women
in the tech industry). Some of the people here might already know her work [1]
[2]. She answered questions about nomading, building a personal brand, whether
she would quit her day job, learning to code, her typical day at work, and
more.
[1]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21172686](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21172686)
[2]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19163316](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19163316)
------
bossnayamoss
This was a great AMA, Steph is awesome!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
The Virtual Accelerator – A place where anyone can plant the seed of an idea - lamito
https://medium.com/@hack.ether.camp/a-home-for-new-ideas-23ccffecf659#.d2edcwyaw
======
EPB4
Please vote for our idea - Open Provenance
------
lamalama
Nice animation video
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Craig Steven Wright claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto - shazad
http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-steven-wright-claims-be-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin
======
nikcub
I don't believe this for a second - and i'm more interested in figuring out
how he duped two Bitcoin developers and some of the most notable news outlets
in the world.
When the link to Wright was first reported in Wired[0] and Gizmodo[1], after
letting the news sink in for a day it was apparent that the evidence trail was
an elaborate ruse. I don't know if Wright leaked the hack to the media (I
think it was more likely to be a disgruntled former employee who bought into
the story), but there were many journalists who turned down that story while
it was being shopped widely because it didn't smell right (this is no slight
on gwern, Andy Greenburg and Sam Biddle who could bring to the story more than
what most ordinary journalists could, and mention that it could be a hoax)
Consider that Wright faked old blog posts, allowed them to be found, and then
deleted them. Consider that he added a new Satoshi Nakomoto PGP key to
keyservers with an email he controlled (which was different, obviously) in
2013, _three years_ after the real Satoshi disappeared. Consider that Wright
claimed to have a super computer and produced a reference letter from SGI, but
that SGI claimed no knowledge of the computer or letter and it turned out to
be fake (in some parts of the world - this is known as fraud)[2]. Consider his
LinkedIn said he earned a Phd. from Bathurst University but the University
knew nothing about it[3]. Consider the only people Wright revealed he was
Satoshi to were a few select employees and people _he was trying to raise
money from_ (he said he was a billionaire but the funds were _locked up_ \- it
is a modern digital version of a 419 scam).
Consider, also, that he says he "tried to keep his head down" but shows up at
a Bitcoin panel as an unknown and suggestively describes himself vaguely -
with a smirk and a wink. Consider that he says he doesn't want the fame or
attention, but shopped an exclusive deal around the media for a month and went
with the BBC, The Economist and GQ - and is currently on every TV channel.
Consider that Wright, despite being quasi-published, has never produced
anything approaching the complexity, clarity, succinctness and humble nature
of the Bitcoin paper, but is the complete opposite of all of these
characteristics (rambles and talks down to people, explaining detail not so
that the reader learns it - but so that you know that he knows this shit).
From what I know about him, it seems Wright is experienced with barely getting
along with big pie-in-the-sky ideas that convince a lot of people around him,
but that definitely are in the grey area between legitimate and fraud. He is
able to drown people in quasi-technical talk and on big ideas and is very
personable (we also have a word for people who take fraudulent action via
their charms).
He avoids people who are actual experts in the areas he himself professes to
be an expert in, and when he is in relevant forums or other online communities
he downplays his achievements.
Some examples: He claimed to be published in infosec, but rather than writing
for the usual outlets he wrote for political blogs on infosec topics[4] (often
poorly). He added his two supercomputers to the top 500 index (which is self
reported) but never participated in the online communities, but he did brag
about it in investment material. He didn't interact with professors or
students at universities, but did teach a remote webinar course on
supercomputing at a pay-for school[4] and finally, with Bitcoin - in
investment material and to employees he was a domain expert and the founder
but he was never a regular in online communities or conferences (although it
seems he got to a point of even convincing Bitcoin _experts_ that he knew what
he was talking about)
He is currently being pursued in Australia by tax authorities not because, as
was commonly reported, not paying taxes on the Satoshi coins (you don't pay
tax in Australia until gains are realized) but because he was one of the
largest claimants of R&D tax concessions in Australia (larger than Google and
Atlassian) and this is a common area of fraud (create a fake company, say you
employe 50 people, claim that 'R&D spend' back - similar to sales tax fraud).
One more point of doubt - but I leave it because it is a bit _ad hominem_ \-
it turns out that you can't work for long in Sydney without knowing someone
who worked for Wright in one of his schemes or knowing someone who knew
someone. Turns out I had 2 friends who worked with him at various points. Both
offered characterizations of Wright as being crazy and deceiving. He is very
convincing in the short term, but things start to unwind over time. One is
still, despite being mildly burnt by him, partly convinced he may have had
_something_ to do with Bitcoin because "he is just that crazy, you learn not
to be surprised by stuff" \- but then snapped out of it.
Is this really Satoshi? It isn't - i'm going to start from the perspective
that Wright has pulled off (another) impressive fraud. I'm more interested in
figuring out _how the hell he did this_.
edit: that didn't take long. It appears there is evidence in this thread, on
reddit and on Twitter that the 'verification' falls short and is just an old
bitcoin transaction[6]
edit: I just got this from another former employee of Wright's - "best conman
i've ever met"
[0] [https://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-
nakam...](https://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-
probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/)
[1] [http://gizmodo.com/this-australian-says-he-and-his-dead-
frie...](http://gizmodo.com/this-australian-says-he-and-his-dead-friend-
invented-bi-1746958692)
[2] [https://www.wired.com/2015/12/new-clues-suggest-satoshi-
susp...](https://www.wired.com/2015/12/new-clues-suggest-satoshi-suspect-
craig-wright-may-be-a-hoaxer/)
[3] [http://gizmodo.com/the-mystery-of-craig-wright-and-
bitcoin-i...](http://gizmodo.com/the-mystery-of-craig-wright-and-bitcoin-isnt-
solved-yet-1747576675)
[4] [https://theconversation.com/lulzsec-anonymous-freedom-
fighte...](https://theconversation.com/lulzsec-anonymous-freedom-fighters-or-
the-new-face-of-evil-2605)
[5] [https://www.itmasters.edu.au/free-short-course-
programming-s...](https://www.itmasters.edu.au/free-short-course-programming-
super-computers/)
[6]
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hf4s2/craig_wrigh...](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hf4s2/craig_wright_reveals_himself_as_satoshi_nakamoto/d2pf5op)
~~~
bootload
_" Questions about Mr Wright’s academic degrees arose because he had listed so
many on a LinkedIn profile which has since been deleted, and because some
could not be confirmed. He now says that the profile was a “joke”—to “take the
piss out of myself” and to keep people from bothering him. “No one took me
seriously, which was great... His doctorate in theology, however, remains a
mystery and Mr Wright does not want to talk about it"_ [0]
For once Nik, I tend to agree with you. The above line is a line from the
Economist that points to deception. Is that Doctorate a technical PhD? [1]
What matters most is a demonstration of the ideas in code and then discussions
with bitcoin peers. You don't need a doctorate on your CV to show this.
[0] [http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-
steve...](http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-steven-
wright-claims-be-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin)
[1] _" His doctorate in theology, however, remains a mystery and Mr Wright
does not want to talk about it"_ ~
[http://www.drcraigwright.net/about/](http://www.drcraigwright.net/about/)
~~~
acqq
Note that in his bio on his site it's:
"He has a Doctorate in Theology and has submitted his completed thesis for his
second Doctorate in Computer Science."
It can be interpreted "second Doctorate in CS" and "second Doctorate, but this
time in CS," and based on the rest of the claims, it's the second. The
original phrasing on the site is exactly how a good conman would phrase it.
Which doesn't prove anything but adds to the other red flags.
And last year he claimed he has "a couple of Doctorates."
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdvQTwjVmrE&t=2m10s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdvQTwjVmrE&t=2m10s)
------
chjj
This is absolutely fake and already debunked, as mentioned on the bitcointalk
forums:
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1457039.msg14728531#...](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1457039.msg14728531#msg14728531)
The signature Wright posted is a signature from a transaction on the
blockchain (and therefore cannot be a signature of a Nobel prize refusal
speech or whatever other message he claims):
[https://blockchain.info/tx/828ef3b079f9c23829c56fe86e85b4a69...](https://blockchain.info/tx/828ef3b079f9c23829c56fe86e85b4a69d9e06e5b54ea597eef5fb3ffef509fe)
The above tx's scriptSig:
3045022100c12a7d54972f26d14cb311339b5122f8c187417dde1e8efb6841f55c34220ae0022066632c5cd4161efa3a2837764eee9eb84975dd54c2de2865e9752585c53e7cce01
The signature Wright posted:
$ echo 'MEUCIQDBKn1Uly8m0UyzETObUSL4wYdBfd4ejvtoQfVcNCIK4AIgZmMsXNQWHvo6KDd2Tu6euEl13VTC3ihl6XUlhcU+fM4=' | base64 -d | xxd -p
3045022100c12a7d54972f26d14cb311339b5122f8c187417dde1e8efb68
41f55c34220ae0022066632c5cd4161efa3a2837764eee9eb84975dd54c2
de2865e9752585c53e7cce
~~~
nitrogen
Note to mods: the really long signature line makes the page unreadable on
mobile; probably too late for OP to edit.
~~~
acqq
It would be good if the HN software during accepting the post which contains
"the really long lines" inserts automatically pre tags around.
------
mappum
EDIT 2: Debunked!
The signature in Wright's post is just pulled straight from a transaction on
the blockchain. Convert the base64 signature from his post
(MEUCIQDBKn1Uly8m0UyzETObUSL4wYdBfd4ejvtoQfVcNCIK4AIgZmMsXNQWHvo6KDd2Tu6euEl13VTC3ihl6XUlhcU+fM4=)
to hex
(3045022100c12a7d54972f26d14cb311339b5122f8c187417dde1e8efb6841f55c34220ae0022066632c5cd4161efa3a2837764eee9eb84975dd54c2de2865e9752585c53e7cce),
and you get the signature found in this transaction input:
[https://blockchain.info/tx/828ef3b079f9c23829c56fe86e85b4a69...](https://blockchain.info/tx/828ef3b079f9c23829c56fe86e85b4a69d9e06e5b54ea597eef5fb3ffef509fe)
Note that the base64 string at the top of his post isn't a signature, just a
cleartext message: " Wright, it is not the same as if I sign Craig Wright,
Satoshi.\n\n".
Now the only question is how he fooled Gavin. I would imagine this story will
still get spread around some naive channels for a while, just like the last
time Wright tried something like this.
Credit goes to jouke in #bitcoin for figuring it out.
\-----------------
EDIT: Current opinion: still skeptical. Here is the public cryptographic
"proof": [http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
signif...](http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
significance/)
Something still seems off to me, why does he go into such specific detail in
verifying the signature? I would have assumed he would just let people figure
out the verification themselves. But maybe I'm just skeptical because Satoshi
having a public identity takes some of the magic away.
As pointed out by maaku, he never revealed what message the signature is
supposed to be signing.
\-----------------
My Original Post:
Everyone in this thread is already taking this as the truth. But remember that
Wright has not publicly released any cryptographic proof, there is only a
claim from BBC that he showed the signature to them and a few magazines.
This strikes me as a little strange since originally Satoshi pretty much only
interacted with the community via the bitcoin mailing list. Why did he
"reveal" the proof by sending it to some magazines rather than emailing the
mailing list?
It really seems like the person who created Bitcoin, a trustless system based
on cryptographic proof, wouldn't make everyone take his word on his identity
when it could be trivially solved with one email.
~~~
dataker
That's an interesting position.
The question is: why creating this hoax in the first place? If anything, the
price of bitcoin has been negatively impacted by this.
[http://www.coindesk.com/price/](http://www.coindesk.com/price/)
What would it be one's motivation behind this?
~~~
cookiecaper
Let me put forth an alternate theory. Everyone is suggesting this is a scam
for more money, which is undoubtedly the most likely explanation. However, I
think an alternate explanation is that this may be a larger ploy to try to
bait the real Satoshi out of hiding. Get him to say "No, that guy's a poser,
it's really me." and while he's out, say "Hey man, what do you think about the
blocksize?" This could explain Gavin's participation; pulling out all the
stops to try to "save" bitcoin by getting founder-approval for a blocksize
bump.
~~~
stordoff
Even if that were the case, why would it reveal Satoshi? Even if the real
Satoshi felt the need to step in, he wouldn't need to reveal himself or open
up future communications - just post an anonymous message signed with a known
key that states "I am not Craig Wright".
~~~
mehdix
This is the best solution so far, however, it assumes the real Satoshi is
still around.
------
csomar
This is a hoax I think. And also Gavin supporting it is weird. The Signature
in the blog post, is, in fact a signature from this transaction:
828ef3b079f9c23829c56fe86e85b4a69d9e06e5b54ea597eef5fb3ffef509fe
Relevant Reddit Comment:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hf4s2/craig_wrigh...](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hf4s2/craig_wright_reveals_himself_as_satoshi_nakamoto/d2pf5op)
~~~
divbyzer0
Andresen's support would make sense in the context of building a new
blockchain\bitcoin business.
To have Satoshi & Bitcoin's chief scientist would be impressive for a start-
up.
Too good in fact.
~~~
csomar
No. It'd just kill his career in the bitcoin world.
------
meowface
Reposting my other comment:
I think Wright is just a smooth-talking conman with some crypto experience.
I'm betting he met Gavin and other (unfortunately, merely "supposed" at this
point...) experts in person, talked shop for a while, then took out his laptop
and staged verifying the signature of blocks 1 and 9 with dummy commands.
(Edit: Gavin actually claimed it was a clean computer, not one that Wright
brought. Disregard that.)
The Economist actually states this directly:
>Mr Wright has also demonstrated this verification in person to The
Economist—and not just for block 9, but block 1. Such demonstrations can be
stage-managed; and information that allows us to go through the verification
process independently was provided too late for us to do so fully. Still, as
far as we can tell he indeed seems to be in possession of the keys, at least
for block 9. This assessment is shared by two bitcoin insiders who have sat
through the same demonstration: Jon Matonis, a bitcoin consultant and former
director of the Bitcoin Foundation, and Gavin Andresen, Mr Nakamoto’s
successor as the lead developer of the cryptocurrency’s software (he has since
passed on the baton, but is still contributing to the code).
Relevant bit:
>Such demonstrations can be stage-managed; and information that allows us to
go through the verification process independently was provided too late for us
to do so fully.
For Gavin's demonstration, he claims Wright validated the signatures on a
"clean" computer, with the implication that it could not be staged.
>Part of that time was spent on a careful cryptographic verification of
messages signed with keys that only Satoshi should possess. But even before I
witnessed the keys signed and then verified on a clean computer that could not
have been tampered with, I was reasonably certain I was sitting next to the
Father of Bitcoin.
So, either the clean computer wasn't really clean, or Gavin's complicit in the
scam, or Wright does have Satoshi's private keys and may be Satoshi.
Either way, why would Satoshi want to prove it yet only demonstrate proof to a
few people in private rather than putting a message and signature online for
anyone to verify?
~~~
comboy
> I think Wright is just a smooth-talking conman with some crypto experience.
> I'm betting he met Gavin and other (unfortunately, merely "supposed" at this
> point...) experts in person, talked shop for a while, then took out his
> laptop and staged verifying the signature of blocks 1 and 9 with dummy
> commands.
I don't believe that anybody with the most basic understanding of cryptography
would fall for that. I don't think there is a slightest chance that Gavin
would. So the most interesting part of the story to me is why did he publish
his blog post.. Something made him do that, but it's beyond doubt to me that
he did not take part in planning of this operation.
~~~
meowface
I agree that it seems extremely absurd Bitcoin experts would fall for that.
I'm very interested to see how this story develops.
~~~
zipwitch
It doesn't seem at all absurd to me that an expert at any subject, speaking to
someone else they believe is another honest expert, but who is actually an
experienced con-artist / fraudster, can be fooled. Don't think of it as one
cryptographer deceiving another via cryptography. Think of it more like a Penn
& Teller trick (to use an example of some well-known experts in the art of
deceit - not that I think for a moment they'd ever actually defraud someone)
only with the computers and cryptography. The actual deception is likely so
far outside the mark's expectations and normal thought processes that the
possibility of it never even occurs to them.
------
MariuszGalus
This guy > [http://cdn.static-
economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecac...](http://cdn.static-
economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-
width/images/2016/05/articles/main/20160430_blp539.jpg) < cannot possibly be
Satoshi Nakamoto. He looks, feels, and smells like a conman. It only takes one
red flag to question credibility and this guy has several.
1\. Contradicts himself, privacy vs brokering a deal with major media outlets
for a story.
2\. Faking LinkedIn experience & degrees.
3\. Associates believe he is 'crazy' and a 'conman'
4\. Failed the writing syntax test comparing his multiple published works to
the original posts and bitcoin paper and eventually...
5\. ...Shifting blame or holes in his story towards the DEAD known people
who've worked on Bitcoin or who had contact with Satoshi in the past.
6\. SGI does not acknowledge him or his claimed statements regarding his
relationship with SGI.
7\. And I'm not going to go any further... the point is, he has too many
'excuses' for every little thing.
I understand he wants to be infallible and unchallenged in his claim, but just
the number of alibis and excuses he dishes out, sans his questionable private-
key proof, leaves a gut feeling that he's not Satoshi and smells of con.
~~~
koluft
Don't judge people by their looks when their actions speak far louder.
~~~
MariuszGalus
Sorry, I'm just taking this a bit personally because I know a guy who ruined a
few peoples' lives by telling lies habitually and scamming for investors. For
me, Dr. Wright relates to him and already as a bias I paint a bad image.
------
6nf
There's no real proof here that Craig is Satoshi. If he really wanted to prove
it to us, he would need to sign a message saying 'Craig Wright is Satoshi
signed 2016-05-02' using the genesis block key.
Read his post: [http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
signif...](http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
significance/) he goes into all sorts of details but then glosses over the
fact that the arbitrary Sartre quote could have been signed by anyone at any
point in the past.
~~~
LeoPanthera
Or he could just use the PGP key he used on the mailing list for months at the
start of bitcoin's life.
~~~
melchebo
Or donate some of the first blocks (s)he mined.
~~~
6nf
Pre-announce and donate Block 1 to the red cross or whatever.
------
darawk
This is a very interesting situation. Fundamentally, there is no reason he
shouldn't be willing to sign an additional message. If he is the crypto expert
he claims to be, he should understand the perfect legitimacy of such a
request. So either:
a) He can't sign it.
b) He is really that petulant and petty that he "won't keep jumping through
hoops", even when those hoops represent completely reasonable and trivially
fulfillable requests. Which itself doesn't really seem to match the
temperament I would have expected Satoshi to have, though i'm certainly no
expert on the man.
Something is wrong here. I'm not unconvinced, but i'm suspiciously reserving
judgment until he signs a second, unpredictable message.
~~~
saalweachter
Well, there is (d) paranoia.
Suppose he does have the private key, but, because it is literally worth
millions of dollars, he has it somewhere secure. It's not sitting on his
laptop, waiting for someone to steal it (physically or electronically).
Signing a message before the announcement was lower risk than signing messages
now, after the announcement. Accessing it a second time, with greedy little
eyes all over him, is risking millions of dollars to convince people who
probably wouldn't be convinced anyway.
------
om2
_" Mr Wright does not want to make public the proof for block 1, arguing that
block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly linked to Mr
Nakamoto (because he sent money to Hal Finney). Repeating the procedure for
other blocks, he says, would not add more certainty. He also says he can’t
send any bitcoin because they are now owned by a trust. And he rejected the
idea of having The Economist send him another text to sign as proof that he
actually possesses these private keys, rather than simply being the first to
publish a proof which was generated at some point in the past by somebody
else."_
Sounds extremely dubious. Especially when he's presented fake proof before.
------
markbao
Craig Wright says that (the late) "Hal Finney was one of the engineers who
helped turn Mr Wright's ideas into the Bitcoin protocol", according to this
article.
However, in Hal Finney's "Bitcoin and Me" post, Hal says he mined the first
block in 2008, then turned the miner off, and then heard about Bitcoin again
in 2010 and transferred his coins to a cold wallet. But he doesn't say
anything about working on the protocol.
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155054.msg1643833#ms...](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155054.msg1643833#msg1643833)
Interesting story there. Either way – RIP, Hal.
~~~
rdl
Hopefully Hal comes back in some years in the future and sets the record
straight. (He's at Alcor now)
~~~
erdojo
Hal Finney (sadly) died two years ago.
~~~
csomar
No. He was cryonized. Hopefully, the future makes it possible to resurrect him
to life.
~~~
davidgerard
Alcor's competence, unfortunately, leaves a little to be desired.
[http://thebaffler.com/salvos/everybody-freeze-
pein](http://thebaffler.com/salvos/everybody-freeze-pein)
~~~
rdl
I've been to their conferences, and am a member.
I agree they could do far better. I think they are doing the best they think
they can do. I think the entire field got poisoned by defining itself in some
kind of struggle in the 60s/70s against anti-cryo people, which is stupid.
IVF, organ banking, etc. are progressing nicely. The Russians are doing a
great job on human cryo. My hope is that the Alcor preservations are still
good enough today that recovery is possible, although it's likely a better
preservation technique, causing less damage, might lead to a recoverable
person at an earlier date (i.e. Alcor 2016 person is recoverable in 2100; RU-
Cryo person cryopreserved with better technology and technique in 2020 is
recoverable in 2070.)
I still think Alcor is better odds than box in the ground or being
incinerated. For ~$1k/yr (membership + insurance), it's worth it to me, even
if only to fund/etc. research.
------
blakeross
"One of the most useful lessons I learned from working at Facebook had nothing
to do with technology: Doubt the media. Always doubt the media."
([https://medium.com/@blakeross/don-t-outsource-your-
thinking-...](https://medium.com/@blakeross/don-t-outsource-your-thinking-
ad825a9b4653))
I'm happy to see that The Economist, at least, has a healthy sense of
skepticism.
------
apsec112
Gavin Andresen says he's verified that Wright is Satoshi. If this is a hoax, a
lot of people are going to wind up with a lot of egg on their faces. :)
[http://gavinandresen.ninja/satoshi](http://gavinandresen.ninja/satoshi)
~~~
digitaurus
This happens. The historian Hugh Trevor Roper was the world's greatest expert
on Adolf Hitler and fell for a scam, famously publicly endorsing some fake
'Hitler diaries'.
------
patio11
Much more useful link: [http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
signif...](http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
significance/)
Working through it now -- lets say I am rapidly heading towards "Not a hoax"
territory.
[Edit: Or, possibly, totally quackadoodle -- but very convinced-in-himself
quackadoodle. I've gotten as far as proving "OK, he knows how to reverse a
Bitcoin address into a public key, and picked a good address for the
purpose."]
~~~
patio11
I was unable to torture the inputs into verifying, despite worksmanlike
effort, unless I trusted calculations made by "the adversary."
I consider the posts by others of this thread of a Bitcoin transaction with
the same signature to be dispositive that he was not signing any variant of
the Sartre message.
Conclusion: a) The linked blog post is pure hokum. b) I'm very clear on how he
got this past generalist media but unsure of how he got it past Gavin.
~~~
bootload
Patrick, Gavin is just a person and as fallible as any other person. If a long
con is being attempted, everything may appear to be right. Extraordinary
claims require extraordinary evidence. Time will tell.
------
VMG
Again? This was debunked months ago when he first tried to pull of this stunt.
Remember, it's easy to prove you're Satoshi by either
* Signing a message with his PGP key [http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/satoshinakamoto.asc](http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/satoshinakamoto.asc)
* Signing a message with one of his early Bitcoin address keys
Edit: apparently he did the latter, quote article
> Mr Wright said he planned to release information that would allow others to
> cryptographically verify that he is Satoshi Nakamoto.
Wonder why it takes so much planning.
Edit2: apparently he signed something
[http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
signif...](http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
significance/)
Gavin Adresen also is convinced:
[http://gavinandresen.ninja/satoshi](http://gavinandresen.ninja/satoshi)
Edit3:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609707](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609707)
~~~
jcoffland
His proof has been shown to be fake.
~~~
VMG
He didn't sign a message "Craig Wright is Satoshi", which would be the proper
way to prove this.
The signature he has could come from one of the signatures the real Satoshi
has created.
Edit:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609707](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609707)
The signature came from a blockchain tx.
------
ipsum2
This article from 2015 was right after all:
[https://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-
nakam...](https://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-
probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/)
~~~
VMG
No, journalism is in an even worse shape than we expected.
------
toopok4k3
Why is no one talking about Dave Kleiman, the wheelchaired man who died in
2013? He was supposedly a friend of Wright. My gut feeling is that he was the
real Satoshi Nakamoto. Wright just sounds like an fraudulent opportunist who
tries to bank by all means necessary from knowing the guys secret.
~~~
jbpetersen
Nick Szabo as Satoshi is my own hypothesis.
------
manigandham
That's really interesting. I've been updating this Quora answer for a while
and he actually commented on it saying "People always know" in Sep 2015 before
his name ever came up.
I'm not sure I believe his comments fully in his latest video though. It seems
he's been conflicted for a long time on whether to reveal himself but for all
the times he says he wants to be left alone, he easily could have but yet here
he is.
[https://www.quora.com/Who-is-most-likely-Satoshi-
Nakamoto/an...](https://www.quora.com/Who-is-most-likely-Satoshi-
Nakamoto/answers/4157306)
~~~
hmsln
[https://www.quora.com/profile/Frank-
Blu/log](https://www.quora.com/profile/Frank-Blu/log)
The owner of the profile of the person who answered your question (whoever he
is) seems to have changed his username from "Craig S Wright" to Frank Blu on
Dec 12th 2015. He also seems to have deleted, on that same day, every post he
made on Quora after Dec 11 2014.
The titles of the questions on which he posted revolved a lot around
cryptocurrencies, cryptography and supercomputers, as well as finance and
economics. Some example of questions to which he contributed are:
"How large will the Bitcoin blockchain be in November 2015?" "How would I
estimate the cost of setting up a 100 Tera-Flop server at my..." "Why is gold
considered so precious and why does it have such high prices..." "Are there
better uses of stimulus funds than others?"
His earliest activity on the site is the creation of a topic called CSCSS, on
Jul 30th 2012.
[https://www.quora.com/topic/CSCSS](https://www.quora.com/topic/CSCSS)
------
danso
A little OT, but whenever the "real" Satoshi Nakamoto is found, what does that
mean for the lawsuit that Dorian Nakamoto has against Newsweek and its 2014
claim?
[http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/10/dorian-
nakamoto-f...](http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/10/dorian-nakamoto-
fingered-as-bitcoin-creator-wants-to-sue-newsweek/)
------
altotrees
Unless Craig Wright comes out with further proof, proof that is undeniable and
unquestionable, I am left feeling sick to my stomach.
I have read several articles this morning which tout this event as total fact
(BBC, Venturebeat, NPR and more), and it just saddens me. If this is a hoax, I
have lost even more respect for these outlets. If this is a hoax, I have also
lost respect for Gavin Andersen, unless he has an ulterior motive for backing
Wright in the first place, or was hacked as some have speculated.
Whenever this kind of "unveiling" happens, I get disheartened. It makes a
serious technical community and set of ides I care very much about look like
little more than a soap-opera or disorganized group of gossip-hounds, as
protrayed in major media outlets, overshadowing everything else.
Total bummer (until further proof and/or notice).
------
IkmoIkmo
It's kinda sad this is being reported by credible journals, it's super likely
to be completely false. I'm glad on HN the link states it's just a claim, and
that on the economist it's phrased as a question: 'is he Satoshi?' (the rule
being in 99/100 cases, the answer is no.) But I've seen otherwise.
~~~
bambax
Agence France Presse (AFP) says in English "Australian entrepreneur Craig
Wright on Monday revealed himself as the creator of the virtual Bitcoin
currency to media outlets..." which in French becomes "Bitcoin: le véritable
créateur de la monnaie numérique est Craig Wright".
This translates as "the actual inventor of the virtual Bitcoin currency IS
Craig Wright", conditionals or precautions be damned; and it's printed as is
all over the French press this morning.
~~~
IkmoIkmo
Yup, Dutch media it was less bad but still not great.
Instead of saying it was a 'claim', or preferably not writing anything about
this scam, they wrote 'Wright admits he's Satoshi' in the title.
This 'admitting' implies everyone thought he was Satoshi, and he confirmed it.
When in reality, everyone thinks he's definitely not it, and he claimed it
without proof.
Then in the article they make completely false claims about him signing
messages he didn't etc. It's really sad, there wasn't a hint of skepticism
that was present in the Economist which I thought was poor itself already.
------
dang
We changed the URL from [http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-
finance/21698060-...](http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-
finance/21698060-craig-wright-reveals-himself-as-satoshi-nakamoto), which
points to this longer story.
------
jdlee0
There's more chicanery in Wright's code [1]
In the posted image of EcDSA.verify.sh, he base64 decodes $sign _i_ ture, but
this is uninitialised. The path is stored in $sign _a_ ture.
[http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
signif...](http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-signing-
significance/)
------
malbs
Didn't they debunk this guy as a hack? /r/bitcoin pretty much destroyed him
when he popped up last time
------
LeoPanthera
> arguing that block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly
> linked to Mr Nakamoto (because he sent money to Hal Finney)
Block 9 contains no transactions other than the mining reward.
[https://blockchain.info/block-
index/14858/000000008d9dc510f2...](https://blockchain.info/block-
index/14858/000000008d9dc510f23c2657fc4f67bea30078cc05a90eb89e84cc475c080805)
~~~
murbul
Block 9 reward payout address 12cbQ... was used in the transaction to Hal
Finney later in block 170.
------
adefa
Funny to go back and watch this panel:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdvQTwjVmrE&feature=youtu.be...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdvQTwjVmrE&feature=youtu.be&t=57s)
------
partycoder
Some time ago I read this: [https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-
deserved-f...](https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-
fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/)
Not sure how effective this is, but if this is true then Satoshi has been
awarded most of the bitcoins.
------
joeyspn
Here we go again... anatomy of a new _" satoshi unmasked!"_ story:
\- Big media spreads bs claims (check)
\- BTC price drop (check)
\- Community CSI debunks story (check)
\- New core devs drama chapter (check)
\- Back to "normal" __
------
neuropie
The proof contains some strange bash commands, using & instead of &&:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11610192](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11610192)
------
argc
It would be pretty annoying if he was making all this up. Posting a signed
random quote does not prove anything. Signing something provably recent is
better, especially if that is message akin to "Satoshi is Craig".
------
curiousgal
So either Gavin knew or didn't. As a core dev I am not sure which is worse.
------
faraggi
I don't want to sound like a nerd-snob, but isn't weird that the potential
Satoshi Nakamoto uses Windows and notepad? [http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-
paul-sartre-signing-signif...](http://www.drcraigwright.net/jean-paul-sartre-
signing-significance/)
I mean, to each his own- especially when talking about dev tools- so why not I
guess?
~~~
TD-Linux
Not really. The original Satoshi client only ran on Windows.
------
termos
Craig: But how will those who don't get ECC believe that it's me?
X: Set your hostname to be wintermute, that should remove all doubt people
might have.
------
scott_s
On the academic side of things, he has a very thin paper trail:
[http://dblp.uni-trier.de/pers/hd/w/Wright:Craig_S=](http://dblp.uni-
trier.de/pers/hd/w/Wright:Craig_S=) and
[http://dl.acm.org/author_page.cfm?id=81488659808&coll=DL&dl=...](http://dl.acm.org/author_page.cfm?id=81488659808&coll=DL&dl=ACM&trk=0&cfid=779669783&cftoken=67111435)
I'm not saying the real Satoshi _has_ to be an academic computer scientist,
but if someone with a significant academic publication record in cryptography
stepped forward, I would take it much more seriously.
Of course, this is secondary to the fact that Wright has not signed a new
message with the original Satoshi key.
------
bshimmin
I'm not sure whether I actually care if he is or if he isn't - there's just so
much good material in this story: hidden super computers and theology degrees
and all sorts of craziness. The only thing that could really improve it would
be a link to Paul Le Roux!
------
daemonk
If this is fake, is this some kind of ploy to flush out the real Satoshi? Or a
publicity stunt?
------
eggy
What I find fascinating about all of this as a normal techie, not a crypto
specialist, is whether he is Satoshi or not, the idea of "Satoshi" in all its
guessing will be bigger than Craig Steven Wright, or I would say even the real
Satoshi if he came out and proved it. We romance our notions of who is behind
something to the point where that notion is too grand to be filled by an
ordinary (pretty smart) human being.
Only Craig Steven Wright for sure, and possibly the real Satoshi, knows the
truth. Whomever it is, he can cash out to the tune of $450 million!
Fun being on the sidelines here, but I do have a heavy intellectual, emotional
investment in the idea of Bitcoin, and I hope it carries on.
------
heimatau
"Mr Wright has also demonstrated this verification in person to The
Economist—and not just for block 9, but block 1." Economist confirms:
[http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-
steve...](http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-steven-
wright-claims-be-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin)
BBC says it's also confirmed through GQ but I don't see anything related yet.
(My view below)
The way he is communicating in the interview sounds like the government was
putting pressure on him. Whomever is 'forcing him' to come out as Nakamoto, I
don't think this will end well for Wright nor his companies.
------
keithpeter
>> _In future, he explained, the blockchain could become so vast that it could
keep track of every Visa transaction, every stock-exchange transaction, every
bank transaction and much more. “We could even create an individual account
for that tissue”, he said, pointing to a paper napkin on the table._ <<
Quote from OA. Would this not short circuit any form of privacy? Or would
various agencies and individuals still have to show that the various 'napkin
accounts' that make up one's daily transaction count belonged to the same
person?
I'm less concerned with the identity of Nakamoto and more concerned with the
shape of the future!
~~~
aab0
> Would this not short circuit any form of privacy?
As far as I can tell, Wright wants to extend the blockchain considerably,
adding opcodes to get Turing-complete functionality. Among other things, he's
hinted at using ring signatures for tracking things, which would give one both
secure control and anonymity. (I think Monero and its descendants may have
stolen that thunder, though.)
------
brunomarx
I don't believe he would be so naive to publish this without having checked
that matter with transaction
828ef3b079f9c23829c56fe86e85b4a69d9e06e5b54ea597eef5fb3ffef509fe before.
------
gnuvince
Why do people care about the real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto?
~~~
acomjean
I don't know. Its kind of like "celebrity culture". I'm a little bit of an
outlier on these things (I lack a facebook account)
There is something in human brains that makes us really want to know about
social network around us. Despite the strange URL this article tries to expain
it [1]
[https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/out-the-
ooze/201503/why...](https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/out-the-
ooze/201503/why-caring-about-celebrities-can-be-good-you)
------
grondilu
That looks like an extremely elaborated way to make a claim that could
normally be done in a few lines.
And even if the claim would _require_ a long explanation, for instance if
Satoshi lost or destroyed the keys for the first few blocks, or the passwords
to his accounts on several forums where he used to write, there would be no
need for him to do this explanation himself. The burden of the proof his on
him, but not the explanation of the proof.
~~~
danielweber
The LiteCoin founder showed how easy it was:
[https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/727157971428331520](https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/727157971428331520)
------
martin1975
Satoshi can also log into bitcointalk.org where the real Satoshi communicated
with the public for quite some time during and after the release of the
bitcoin client. Can Wright log into it and post or is he gonna claim he forgot
his password? Oh wait, a password can be reset. Oh no, he forgot his password
to the email he registered on BitcoinTalk.org.. Damn... I guess we're SOL :).
~~~
aab0
No, he can't. That email was probably the hacked one, and Theymos locked the
Bitcointalk account ages ago. And that's a dumb method of proof compared to
cryptographic ones anyway - how many times has Bitcointalk been hacked now? 2?
3?
------
bobwaycott
What is up with this specific comment thread being so horribly wide on mobile?
Why isn't CSS enforcing a width and wrapping the page?
~~~
DanBC
This thread contains several posts that have very long, unbroken, lines. If
those lines had started with four (two?) spaces they've have got different CSS
- the pre-formatting would have put the very long unbroken line inside a
different box with scrollbars.
Here's one example post:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11610111](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11610111)
~~~
bobwaycott
The top comment seems to be the one that sets the tone, and it doesn't look
like anything should be in a code block:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11610101](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11610101)
Edit: oddly, going directly to that comment looks better than going to the
main thread. It's still smaller than normal on mobile, but nowhere near as bad
as the main thread.
Here's what things look like for me in Safari on iOS:
[https://imgur.com/a/KVrSX](https://imgur.com/a/KVrSX)
------
rurban
I was convinced at the first outing 2015 already:
[https://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-
nakam...](https://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-
probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/)
------
cm3
My impression is that these things happen in order to try to force the real
Satoshi to come forward. I wouldn't be surprised if guys like Wright are paid
and supported by others to do this. I hope Satoshi will never be revealed and
don't see what that would provide anyway. Just leave them be.
------
headgasket
sit the guy in a room. Fire up sublime, emacs, vim, or whatever IDE. Give him
an hour to write an app in C++ to solve something trivial that he does not
know in advance, such as the 8 queens problem. End of debate. The guy most
likely cannot code to save his life.
------
auggierose
Well, he either is Satoshi, or a genius conman. I would love for him to be
Satoshi, it would be a great story. It's also ridiculous that people think
they would be able to derive the personality of someone from a paper he wrote.
------
mamadontloveme
What is this - some kind of really, really weird hiring campaign for crypto
folks?
------
bobowzki
Maybe he is trying to get Nakamoto to out himself..? His claim is ridiculous.
------
mattanical
Guess the only way he can really prove he is S.N. is that he transfers cca.
million bitcoins to himself for everyone to see ;) ...Wanna see that happen,
lol. (most probably S.N. is a group not a person).
------
return0
So does the bitcoin community prefer it if the real satoshi comes forward or
not? It seems that many would prefer a leader to set the future of bitcoin,
eventhough that's counter to its principles.
------
nathanscully
"Satoshi Nakamoto is believed to amassed about one million Bitcoins which
would give him a net worth, if all were converted to cash, of about $450m."
Anyone know what this was worth at its peak?
~~~
abhi3
The question is can he liquidate his holdings without causing a market crash?
Not just because of economics of demand and supply but because of the
psychological effects on the market.
~~~
smegger001
considering the cause for him needing to liquidate is known, he has major tax
penalties he has to pay, exchanging them now won't cause as big of a stir as
if he did it when he was anonymous and would lead to suspicion of some sort of
problem with the protocol. and a run to cash in.
------
richtr
BBC interview with Craig Wright (video, 4m50s)
[http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36168863](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36168863)
------
Houshalter
This comment section is unreadable on mobile. Why is it so wide?
------
brunomarx
It seems, we either have someone lying or a SHA-256 collision.
------
brunomarx
[https://github.com/patio11/wrightverification](https://github.com/patio11/wrightverification)
------
discardorama
Simple. Satoshi owns millions of BTC. Anyone claiming to be Satoshi should
just spend a small chunk of BTC from that initial block as a challenge
response.
------
EGreg
Satoshi Nakamoto was most likely a group, like Bourbaki.
~~~
known
I second it
------
neugier
Might the reason they were fooled so easily be, that they were flattered, that
Satoshi would reveal himself to them, but not the community directly?
------
heimatau
Edit: (Sad that I submitted the long story yet original submission was just a
snippet but HN mods change the submission.) That's not fair.
Not full story. Just snippet.
Full story (HN Sub):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609708](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609708)
Direct: [http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-
steve...](http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-steven-
wright-claims-be-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin)
------
EwanToo
In a way it's a slightly disappointing end to the mystery!
~~~
mystcb
I see what you mean! It felt like the end of the Perplexity puzzle that
existed, the moment it was found the excitement behind it all just didn't keep
going!
Mind you, the card to find someone using six degrees of separation is also
called Satoshi!
[http://perplexcitywiki.com/wiki/Billion_to_One](http://perplexcitywiki.com/wiki/Billion_to_One)
~~~
jazzychad
Hah, I was just thinking about Perplex City the other day and wondered if that
Satoshi was ever found. I really did love that game and the community around
it.
~~~
foota
Based on the wikipedia page that is one of two cards never solved, the other
being the Riemann hypothesis.
~~~
foota
I'm curious, why are people downvoting this?
------
alfiedotwtf
Just remember that The Economist a few years ago published a story on Steorn's
Perpetual Motion machine.
You don't go to The Economist when you want hard hitting investigative
journalism - you go The Economist when you need investor money.
~~~
icebraining
It was a (full-page) ad, not a story, not even a "sponsored" one, as the
layout was quite distinct:
[http://dispatchesfromthefuture.com/images/steorn_economist_a...](http://dispatchesfromthefuture.com/images/steorn_economist_ad.jpg)
~~~
alfiedotwtf
What's the difference between this and Nature having a full page ad for a
Homeopathy clinic?
------
sschueller
Is he going to way in on the whole Blockchain size debate?
------
max_
I wont believe so unless he signs the first block
------
disposeofnick9
Dupe of
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609619](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609619)
------
krick
Does it even matter? Why?
------
iamcreasy
I was hoping they would ask him why choose the name 'Satoshi Nakamoto'?
~~~
Untit1ed
The BBC article stated that Nakamoto was after Tominaga Nakamoto, and Satoshi
was a secret.
------
gsibble
Fascinating. Why would he chose to reveal himself now?
------
nxzero
Satoshi is Satoshi; please leave things be.
------
jmalloc
Are the details of the key signing public?
------
homero
Beyond fake
------
known
Hoax
------
redsummer
"He also says he can’t send any bitcoin because they are now owned by a
trust."
Well, the trust could create a new address, and send btc to itself. This above
all makes me not believe him.
~~~
danielweber
When he talks to media, he uses technobabble bamboozle.
When he talks to tech, he uses legalbabble bamboozle.
Even if he didn't want to transfer any original BTC pre-news-release, they
could have coordinated for him to transfer 1 BTC from an early block to some
charity at the time of reveal.
------
edoloughlin
Tech journalists: "Bitcoin creator confirms his identity by using, um, crypto
stuff. Or something"
------
xiphias
Of course he wants to be left alone: he didn't pay taxes. Also of course there
is no real public proof as he's not Satoshi.
~~~
f3llowtraveler
He wouldn't owe any taxes. At least, not any income tax. The coins were
worthless when he first mined them, and so there wouldn't have been any tax
due.
If he were to sell the coins now, he might incur a capital gains tax,
depending on where he lives.
~~~
xiphias
The tax fraud doesn't have anything to do with Bitcoin. The top comment
explains it more, but it was clear from earlier news about him as well.
------
omarforgotpwd
interesting that he didn't want to reveal his identity, but got in trouble and
thought it might help
------
abhi3
I'm sure people will still question his claims even though this should settle
the debate.
------
im3w1l
This is bittersweet. I loved the mystery and the whole guessing game of _what
Satoshi Nakamoto would have wanted_.
------
toomim
It's funny how many commenters on hacker news think that this is actually
satoshi nakamoto.
~~~
brunomarx
Man Has Never Set Foot on The Moon
------
daurnimator
Looks like the sceptics at
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10701785](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10701785)
were wrong. Interesting to read through now that the truth is known.
------
dark_void
Why would he verify that he is the creator? Even though Bitcoin is past the
phase where the governments can criminalize it publicly they will surely
torture him in every roundabout way possible for the rest of his life.
He seems to be owning up to it in order to protect others but I think he has
no idea what he is getting into. They mention that his house was raided a
couple of years ago but I guess that didn't phase him.
~~~
_yosefk
Governments could have criminalized it at any point, they can criminalize it
now, and they will certainly criminalize it in the future if they feel a need
to do so (unless this thing gets used by >1% of the population which I'm
willing to bet money against.) They didn't because they didn't want to. If
they wanted to know who created Bitcoin in order to "torture" them they would
have found out, at this point we know how good they are at this sort of thing;
also, if they wanted to "torture" prominent people behind the Bitcoin software
there was never a shortage of people with known identities. That he didn't pay
his taxes seems to be a separate issue.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
What's the difference between 0/0 and 1/0? - korethr
https://blog.plover.com/math/division-by-zero.html
======
codethief
The author's explanation is based on how the rationals are defined explicitly
but this leaves the question open whether the rationals couldn't be extended
somehow, so that the inverse of 0 is suddenly defined in this extension. More
generally, couldn't there be other fields where 0 has a multiplicative
inverse?
Of course the answer to both questions is negative but it's the consequence of
a much more general fact: In any field the additive zero element can never
have a multiplicate inverse. (If it did, the field's other algebraic
operations would suddenly lead to contradictions.) And in this sense, there is
also no difference between the expressions 1/0 = 1 · 0⁻¹ and 0/0 = 0 · 0⁻¹
because 0⁻¹ simply doesn't exist.
I've always found this explanation much more illuminating. _No matter what you
do_ , you can never have 0⁻¹!
~~~
daveFNbuck
You can have a multiplicative inverse of 0 if 0 = 1. This results in a field
with only a single element.
~~~
gizmo686
Unless your definition of field include the non-triviality axiom that 0 != 1.
------
bahhh
George Boole proposed something similar in The Laws of Thought: he considered
a definition of c = a/b where a = c AND b (even if he didn't write it like
that).
Thus, 0/0 was an indeterminate value, and 1/0 was seen as an impossibility.
Boole's example: if m means "is mortal" and h means "is human", then saying
"there is no immortal humans" is h AND NOT m = 0, and Boole explains that from
it you could deduce: m = h + 0/0 and not h meaning "mortals are humans and
something indeterminate which is not human"
here it's still George Boole trying to cram normal arithmetics into logic, but
still.
------
lucasgonze
I'm inspired by how clean his reasoning is. Something basic but fuzzy which we
refer to all the time - "divide by zero is undefined" \- actually contains
meaning! This makes me happy.
------
ikeboy
>When f(0)≠0, we can state decisively that there is no such Q
This is false. This relies on an assumption not stated - that f is continuous.
For a simple counterexample:
f(x) = 1, x=0
f(x) = x, x!=0
g(x) = x
Limit of the ratio as x approaches 0 is 1.
------
LoSboccacc
as most of these discussion they go from "these number are impossible!" to
"but wait! there's algebra!" without really providing a framing context of
what's going on.
this is what's going when the article say "slides smoothly in toward 2"
[https://www.google.com/search?q=(x^2%2B2x)/x](https://www.google.com/search?q=\(x^2%2B2x\)/x)
and this is another common example, which "slides" toward a different number
(which is why when you see the division alone is "undefined" and only acquires
value in context)
[https://www.google.com/search?q=sin(x)/x](https://www.google.com/search?q=sin\(x\)/x)
but beyond the "just apply limits" party trick it's the implication however
that's the most interesting part, and I'll use the words from here[1]:
> Things that appear to be zero may be nonzero in a different dimension (just
> like i might appear to be 0 to us, but isn’t)
[1] [https://betterexplained.com/articles/why-do-we-need-
limits-a...](https://betterexplained.com/articles/why-do-we-need-limits-and-
infinitesimals/)
------
Rhinobird
For x⋅0=a (i.e. 1/0) no number fits. It's like a database search that finds
nothing. It's a null. A point that is not in the set.
For x⋅0=0 (i.e. 0/0) any number fits. Is there such a thing as an anti-null?
In the infinite set, 0/0 is infinite.
If a/0 isn't any number if you exclude 0, then a/0 should be zero. Tada!
...of course zero wasn't in the set, which makes it a null
------
meuk
This can be explained clearly in two sentences:
Division is the inverse of multiplication (a * b / b = a / b * b = a).
However, multiplication by 0 is not injective (we have x * 0 = 0 for every x),
so multiplication by zero can't have an inverse operation, and both 0/0 and
1/0 are undefined.
~~~
EForEndeavour
This explanation correctly explains why 1/0 and 0/0 are not numbers, but
doesn't answer the question of what makes 1/0 and 0/0 _different_. And they
aren't both undefined.
1/0 is undefined because _no_ value of x satisfies 1/0 = x.
0/0 is _indeterminate_ because _any_ value of x satisfies 0/0 = x.
~~~
throwawaymath
0/0 is only indeterminate if your axioms allow or require it to be. Strictly
speaking you can define 0/0 to mean something, but you will lose a lot of
useful properties along the way. The only time 0/0 is not indeterminate is
when you're dealing with something exotic and obscure like an algebraic wheel.
It's correct to say 0/0 is undefined because in the vast majority of cases
where someone doesn't explicitly call out the algebraic setting, they're
working with a field.
------
ddxxdd
Someone needs to copy this poster's simplistic style, and use it to explain to
me why Laplaces equation of electrostatic potential is solved with Bessel
functions times an exponential times a sine/cosine wave (edit: in cylindrical
coordinates).
~~~
codethief
I suppose you've already looked at:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cylindrical_harmonics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cylindrical_harmonics)
?
~~~
ddxxdd
No, but that page has all the info that Jackson's Classical E&M textbook
already explains.
I was being slightly facetious, but any average person will tune out a
complete derivation after 15 integral signs, 50 terms, and 100 factors unless
there is a pleasing narrative woven throughout the discussion.
~~~
codethief
Haha, I feel you!
------
tzs
Well, 1/0 - 0/0 = (1-0)/0 = 1/0, so the difference is 1/0\. :-)
~~~
aijony
or -1/0
~~~
ngcc_hk
Or whatever/0
For the article what it try to do is using limit to see whether the difference
converge to a finite number
diff(x) = one(x)/zero’(0) - zero(x)/zero’’(0)
Where one and all zero function approach 1 and 0, smooth etc
Find diff(x) when lim x-> 0
------
jchook
I read a relevant article about how the semantics of division by Zero
ultimately rest on arbitrary decisions of the mathematics community.
Trying to dig this up I found these:
\- [https://www.1dividedby0.com/](https://www.1dividedby0.com/)
\- [https://www.hillelwayne.com/post/divide-by-
zero/](https://www.hillelwayne.com/post/divide-by-zero/)
------
gizmo686
>But to really understand the difference you probably need to use the calculus
approach
I am probably showing my bias as an algebraist here, but there is a purely
algabraic way of seeing the difference between 0/0 and 1/0, which is (in my
view) more intuitive.
The standard way of constructing the field of fractions is to start with the
integers (or your choice of base ring), and define an equivalence relation on
the set:
Q = { (x,y) | x,y are integers, y!=0 }
Given by:
(a,b) ~ (c,d) iff ad = bc
Intuitively, the pair (a,b) is the fraction a/b, and the equivalence
relationship is defining that: a/b = c/d is equivalent to ad =bc (assume b,d
are non-zero). From that you can define multiplication and division in the
expected way and verify that the resulting structure is a field that behaves
as you would expect the rationals to behave.
One thing to notice in the above view is that the prohibition on dividing by 0
is entirely artificial. By removing 6 characters from the above definition, we
arrive at the following structure:
W = { (x,y) | x,y are integers }
(a,b) ~ (c,d) iff ad = b
Let [W] be the set of equivalence classes on W, and [Q] be the set of
equivalence classes on Q.
If we define addition and mulitplication on [W] and [Q] in the "obvious" way,
then [Q] behaves identically to the field of rational numbers (indeed, this is
a common construction.
Further, [W] contains [Q] as a subset, so we can view [W] as an extension to
the rational numbers.
We can verify that [W] contains exactly two elements not present in [Q], which
I will denote:
⊥ = [(0,0)] = 0/0
∞ = [(1,0)] = 1/0 = a/0 for a!=0 and a!=⊥
The question now becomes, is "division" meaningful on [W]. If we keep the same
definition of multiplication as with [Q], it is clear that we cannot define an
inverse operation [0].
However, we can define a unary operation called the reciprical, given by:
/[(x,y)] = [(y,x)]
And define a division operation as multiplication by the reciprical. So:
[(a,b)] div [(x,y)] = [(a,b)] * (/[(x,y)]) = [(a,b)] * [(y,x)] = [(ay,bx)]
And note that, on the subset [Q], this operation is identical to our standard
notion of division.
With this, we have extended [Q] into a structure, [W], for which division by 0
is defined.
Further, by doing so, we added exactly 2 elements: 0/0 and 1/0\. So we can see
that 0/0 and 1/0 are distinct (in this structure) in a way that 1/0 and 2/0
are not. (as 1/0 ~ 2/0 in the same way that 1/1 ~ 2/2)
In fact, the behaviour of ⊥ ∞ should not be suprising to this forum.
⊥ behaves essentially like NaN in that it "absorbs" the other number in all
operations. So:
x + ⊥ = ⊥ and
x * ⊥ = ⊥.
∞ behaves mostly like you would expects:
0 * ∞ = 0,
x * ∞ = ∞ | x != 0 and x != ⊥
x + ∞ = 0 | x != ⊥
The main "weirdness" here is that ∞=-∞
In fact, this [W] I have been describing is an established structure refered
to as a Wheel [1], and can be constructed over the real or complex numbers
just as easily (it can also be viewed as an extension of the more well known
Riemann sphere by adding ⊥)
[0] I will note that the lack of division by 0 means that we cannot define an
inverse operation for multiplication in [Q] either.
[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheel_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheel_theory)
~~~
cygaril
Assuming the definition of ~ is meant to be the same on Q and W (I think
there's a typo), then it's no longer transitive and therefore no longer an
equivalence relation: (0, 0) ~ (1, 2) and (0, 0) ~ (2, 3) but not (1, 2) ~ (2,
3).
~~~
gizmo686
I'm passed the window where I can edit my post, so I will correct it here.
You are correct that my original post is mistaken. I wish I could attribute
that to a typo, but it was really me just working from memory without checking
my work. A correct equivalence relation for a wheel over integers is as
follows:
(a,b) ~ (x,y) iff there exists s1,s2 (both non-zero integers) such that:
(s1 * a, s1 * b) = (s2 * x, s2 * y)
When b,y are non zero, this is the same as the equivalence relationship on
fractions.
------
tim333
Well, in javascript 0/0 == NaN while 1/0 == Infinity.
An interesting thing is they have the value -0 so you can set a=-0 and 1/a
returns -Infinity.
~~~
dylan604
This should be part of an update to the Destroy All Software's Wat video:
[https://www.destroyallsoftware.com/talks/wat](https://www.destroyallsoftware.com/talks/wat)
~~~
garmaine
Except that is defined, standard IEEE 754 behavior and is true on nearly all
programming languages.
------
cairo_x
Nothing has an infinite number of nothings in it.
One has zero nothings in it...? It also has an infinite number of somethings
in it. And each something has another infinity of divisible somethings within
that.
Therefore anything that isn't nothing (in the universe of abstraction which
doesn't exist in reality, but whatever) is infinite.
OBVIOUSLY.
NOTE: Hasn't read the article and is mathematically challenged.
------
8note
my calculus answer is that usually you see 0/0 when looking for limits
1/0 definitely has no real value 0/0 might have one, but you've framed the
question poorly -- if you rewrite the problem in a different way, you might
find the value of 0/0 for your case eg, by applying L'Hôpital's rule
------
murkle
Extended number line is one way to formalise this
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_real_number_line](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_real_number_line)
------
graycat
To answer the question, move to the _extended real numbers_ as in, say, H.
Royden, _Real Analysis_.
In short, the extensions work and at times are convenient but work less well
than the rules of the real numbers; the extensions are a bit tricky and have
to be careful.
------
askvictor
Also fun: 0^0 (not an emoji; 0 to the power of 0). Windows Calculator gives an
answer of 1; Excel throws a number error, while Android hedges its bets (shows
"Undefined, or 1").
------
pugworthy
In a kind of both joking way, and in a serious as a programmer way, either way
is the same - and not exceptional. I mean beyond that it will raise an
exception. Either way, you divided by zero.
------
yuriko
I'm definitely joking, but
$ node
> 1.0/0.0
Infinity
> 0.0/0.0
NaN
------
saagarjha
> Last year a new Math Stack Exchange user asked What's the difference between
> 0/0 and 1/0? I wrote an answer I thought was pretty good, but the question
> was downvoted and deleted as “not about mathematics”.
Never change, Stack Exchange.
~~~
dreamcompiler
Almost every useful answer I've ever found on SE or SO has been marked down
with some snarky judgmental horseshit meta-comment. At this point, if I don't
see such markdowns, I assume the answer isn't very useful until proven
otherwise.
~~~
ultrarunner
I wonder if this is a repeatable phenomenon wherein a universally-useful
resource is more likely to be accessed by a wider gamut of people, thus
essentially guaranteeing a judgmental response. That would mean those snarky
responses _really are_ a mark of a good and useful question.
~~~
wallace_f
After the world solved the scarcity problem with respect to everyone's ability
to survive a normal, healthy, dignified lifespan, most of the economy
continued to shift towards conspicuous consumption.
If you look honestly at humanity, the motivations of the average person are
selfish and unenlightened. An internet mod enjoys authority and an elevated
sense of self worth by putting other people down.
There really are some people genuinely enthused by virtues such as
intellectual discovery and shared dignity, but they're in short supply and
likely to be outnumbered in the population clamoring to become internet mods.
I've had a few posts removed from a SO site after I corrected someone who
happened to be a mod there. And the Innocence Project fights to give innocent
people their lives back because some prosecutors don't want a scratch on their
resume.
I think it would be better if we acknowledged these realities more-often
rather than pretending all the evil people in the world died in Nazi Germany,
or wherever, and they weren't just normal people.
I think this is also why I always retreat into nerdy or intellectual
endeavors. Not because I am particularly intelligent, but because the real
world is so ugly.
~~~
ineedasername
I agree with everything you said, except that first part about solving the
scarcity problem. I'd need you to elaborate there, because it doesn't seem
like that's been done in many parts of the world.
~~~
wallace_f
Humanity currently possesses the capability to provide everyone their basic
human needs (food, safe water, housing, sanitation, essential healthcare) and
hunan rights, but not the willingness. People die preventable deaths because
they lack access to basic, affordable healthcare while other people are
getting plastic surgery. People are homeless all over LA and SF while QE
printed trillions for Wall St. Doctors without Borders hospitals are bombed
while Wolf Blitzer says ending war there is a "moral issue because it will
cost US defense contractors jobs."
~~~
ineedasername
Ah, capability to feed, health care, etc., yes. We _should_ be in a post-
scarcity civilization with respect to basic needs. I seem to recall reading
studies though that showed on a per-dollar basis, it was much better in the
long term to boost the local economy rather than just give handouts in the
form of food aid etc. However, my thought in response to that has always been
that it frames the situation as though there were a choice between the two. My
thinking is that if people are living in misery, poverty, disease, and death,
why make this a choice? We can do both. It's a multi-decade project, but not
intractable. It's also probably hopelessly optimistic, but I'm okay with
failures that move the ball forward a bit.
~~~
wallace_f
I also think it is true that local economies have been devastated by hand
outs. It's a complex issue but it's also not.
There is no real excuse here as far as human cognitive ability goes. The
problem is with morality.
I think these examples show that as humanity goes forward I think moral
integrity/intelligence/bravery is more important to develop than our purely
technological and scientific capabilities.
------
TomMckenny
>I wrote an answer I thought was pretty good, but the question was downvoted
and deleted as “not about mathematics”.
Why post on some else's site? Especially quality work that took real effort.
I'm guilty of it too (although nothing so cool is this article).
We complain about the web becoming dangerously centralized compared to the
past. Much of this is because of free high grade labor that adds value to an
already dominant organization.
~~~
jobigoud
The usual answer to that is "discoverability". You can either post your
content to someone else's website and have it read/viewed/watched, or post it
where virtually no one will see it so you might as well not post it.
~~~
TomMckenny
Yes but discoverability to what end? In one case the reader then thinks and
says "I learned this on Stack Exchange" rather than a possibility of "I
learned this from Mark".
In one case an organization that is much complained about becomes even more of
a necessity and so has less incentive to fix itself. In another the reverse
happens.
In hyperbole: in one case you may as well not post it, in the other case you
may as well have not written it.
------
ggm
The one thing his article didn't say for the arithmetically challenged person
(me) is very much about 1/0 - he certainly talked about anything/0 and
function()/0 but dived off why 1/0 and 0/0 have subtle difference.
It's a good read but he missed his clear mission. One extra paragraph?
~~~
mannykannot
The middle section is the author's answer: they are different because they
fail to yield a definite answer in different ways and for different reasons.
You will find some alternative ways of looking at it in the comments here.
------
marknadal
The main argument I've seen against division by zero is because:
"Then 2 + 2 could equal 7!"
If you go through the examples of how they derive that, you can actually fix
it quite easily by assigning each 0/0 pair to different variables. This
prevents the underhand commutative rule violation.
Then all that you are left with is linear algebra. Whether that equation is
solvable depends upon how many constraints you have. But it at least doesn't
cause math to violate itself.
~~~
throwawaymath
That doesn't work. You're changing the setting of the problem from scalars to
vectors in order to avoid breaking the uniqueness properties of fields and
rings. The solution set for a system of linear equations is not unique (if it
is at all) in the same sense that e.g. additive and multiplicative identity
elements are unique.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ke Jie (9p) to Challenge AlphaGo - thangalin
http://weibo.com/p/1008083ec48cfc1aa3aa0a3d2ab4aa04e9eed3
======
thangalin
Loosely translated:
Just today, Jinli Guan Fang announced Ke Jie's endorsement contract and will
support Ke Jie's challenge of AlphaGo.
Also of interest is a Bayesian estimate that AlphaGo has a 58% chance of being
stronger than Ke Jie.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/4ai6g0/is_alphago_ev...](https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/4ai6g0/is_alphago_even_stronger_than_ke_jie_a/d10ioo5)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Why we are registering the npm trademark - mavdi
http://blog.nodejitsu.com/protecting-npm
======
mavdi
Here is Mikeal Roger's response
[https://gist.github.com/mikeal/9242748](https://gist.github.com/mikeal/9242748)
You guys make the judgement, but none of this can be good for node.
~~~
tdumitrescu
Thanks for the heads up. Looks like there's a bunch of discussion of the issue
in the gist comments.
Babies vs bathwater...
EDIT: some interesting and relevant technical info on the history of the npm
registry infrastructure:
[https://gist.github.com/mikeal/8947417](https://gist.github.com/mikeal/8947417)
------
tdumitrescu
followup:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7318631](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7318631)
"After listening to the deep concern that has been voiced over our application
to register the npm trademark we have decided to withdraw the application from
the USPTO."
good move
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Gone Google? Do yourself a favor: don’t. - aliebschner
http://www.indieloper.com/2009/11/18/gone-google-do-yourself-a-favor-don’t/
======
aliebschner
If you want a short version of the story, here it is: it took 5 days
(approximatively 150 hours) to get the first reply from the so called “Google
Enterprise Support”. And that’s the good news. The bad news is that most of
the Google products don’t come with any kind of support whatsoever, unless you
are internet famous.
~~~
conover
For some reason I can't get to the article. Anyway as another anecdotal data
point: We have a few Google Search Appliances where I work. When one of them
broke (rather catastrophically) Google Support was on top of it and the
problem was fixed relatively quickly.
Edit: I suppose this is a case of "you get what you pay for". Google Search
Appliances are non-trivially expensive. I guess they wouldn't be able to get
away with bad support for those.
~~~
aliebschner
I threw money (RAM) at the problem and the server is back up, at least it is
now ;-)
------
sunchild
You get what you pay for. Google Apps for Enterprise is $50/yr. Not sure what
you pay for feedburner, but the bottom line is that Google doesn't sell
support. You email them and you wait.
If it doesn't work for you, go elsewhere. It's obviously a business decision
they've made by weighing the loss of customers like you against the cost of
carrying a huge hands-on support organization.
~~~
patio11
_You get what you pay for._
It would be much less frustrating if this were the case, actually.
Empirically, $15,000 is not enough for them to routinely return email within a
week. In many businesses, that would be "Yes sir, right away sir, can I get
you a cup of tea while you wait sir" territory.
Plus, from what I've heard, it doesn't get any better for the next two orders
of magnitude, either.
~~~
staunch
$15,000 over the course of how long? To them that's a _very_ small fry. Many
of their AdWords customers spend tens/hundreds of thousands per month. Those
people are getting support.
~~~
netcan
I have had Google give horrendus CS on accounts on that scale. 100k is still
small fry to Google.
But that shouldn't matter. No one is trying to get Eric Schmidt on the phone.
$150k, $15k or even $150 is plenty relative to returning a phone call, which
is what it costs them & what your relative fry-ness should be measured
against.
------
NathanKP
The blog only has four posts on it? Why is he even worried about feeds at this
point?
I think this is blown way out of proportion. A new blog like that with only
four posts probably only gets a few visitors a day. He's getting more traffic
over this "controversy" post than he would ever get from a feed.
He should thank Feedburner for messing up his feed because it gave him
something to write about that would bring in traffic. At any rate the loss of
the feed is nothing terrible when you consider how new the blog is.
I tried a hack to find out how many subscribers he has but he has feed
"awareness" disabled.
[https://feedburner.google.com/api/awareness/1.0/GetFeedData?...](https://feedburner.google.com/api/awareness/1.0/GetFeedData?uri=indieloper)
At any rate, I doubt he even has more than a few subscribers. No wonder Google
didn't consider his "issue" to be high priority.
------
va_coder
I think Rackspace is hitting a sweet spot with hosted email and calendaring
and 24x7 service.
I think there are many niches, yet untapped in hosted services, where the cost
may be a little more than google, but the service may be a lot better (another
example Heroku).
~~~
megamark16
Cost less and give more, that's all it takes to steal customers from a
competitor. Of course "Cost" doesn't just refer to the price, as someone who
has "spent" their time trying to get support from Google can tell you. And
"More" doesn't just refer to features or services, it's about the value to the
customer.
~~~
freetard
I think you mean TCO.
~~~
megamark16
I knew it had a name! :-) Thanks.
------
pavs
This is one of the stupidest thing I have read in a long time. Sorry, but
someone had to tell you the way it is. Having hissy fit over a trivial issue
such as feed burner?
Create a new feed to the account you wanted to transfer. make a post about the
update. Readers from all feed will still get your post, because the changes
are not instant. Wait 24 hours. Problem solved.
Assuming you are not the one who made a mistake and deleted your feed. I have
been using feedburner for a long time and transferred my old feeds to google
feeds with no problem.
------
petercooper
If you run a site with thousands of subscribers that depends on FeedBurner for
serving feeds, it's a little worrying. There are things you can do to reduce
the pain but it's still a sticky point.
~~~
pyre
Are you saying that it's worrying that Google gives no support for FeedBurner
or that it's worrying that a large site is dependent on FeedBurner?
~~~
petercooper
The former. I can see why my message is ambiguous now, but I'm worried about
sites being at Google's mercy, rather than criticizing them for using a
service that, at one point, was run by a well staffed and very competent team.
As far as Google acquisitions go, FeedBurner was by far the worst IMHO in
terms of really sucking the heart and soul out of a product.
------
coreyrecvlohe
You want Enterprise support for Feedburner? LOL. As far as I know they don't
offer that, and I wouldn't have expected it. You're talking about Google
giving support for one of their products which isn't actually covered by their
Enterprise policy, even though you might have had a product that was covered,
the issue you were having was for a product that wasn't.
Their Enterprise Policy explicitly states which are services covered and which
are not.
------
mstevens
Is this loading for other people? For me there's no response.
~~~
aliebschner
hackernews killed the server and it's really FUBAR (can't even ssh to it and
try to fix it) sorry about that [edit: back up now]
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Power outage stops game at Super Bowl - DVassallo
http://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2013/02/03/lights-out-power-outage-stops-game-at-super-bowl
======
sixQuarks
America spends trillions overseas on unjust wars while the infrastructure at
home crumbles around us. Unbelievable.
~~~
evan_
only half the lights were out inside the stadium and the city didn't lose
power so it's pretty safe to assume it's a problem in the stadium's lighting
equipment and not the city's power grid.
~~~
sixQuarks
well, I'm still a cynical bastard and I don't care. Just letting some
frustration out and trying to make it a political issue.
------
DVassallo
More details: [http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/power-
outa...](http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/power-outage-super-
bowl-adds-unexpected-element-big-014914888--nfl.html)
------
tomasien
Second joke: Told them not to host their lights on AWS!
------
jbuzbee
I'm just waiting for "Anonymous" to say they did it...
------
DVassallo
Game just resumed after a 35 minute delay.
------
tomasien
Must have been built on Rails
~~~
tomasien
Yeah, I didn't see this one going over well.
------
rtpg
most people on twitter were commenting how this is going to trigger a hundred
op-eds on crumbling infrastructure.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
NSA "can – and does – listen to everyone from senators to lovers" (1995) - LoganCale
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1995-12-12/news/1995346001_1_nsa-eavesdropping-listening-national-security-agency
======
austenallred
The most interesting aspect of this is that immediately after the NSA seems to
agree that it lets trainees listen to random phone calls it claims it
"absolutely does not" spy on citizens. What is spying, then, according to the
NSA definition?
~~~
Wingman4l7
Whatever definition won't get them into trouble for it.
~~~
ihsw
Don't forget that they need to paint their enemies into a corner by defining
what 'spying' means.
Permanent offense is the best defense.
------
hawkharris
At some point you & your partner will argue over who said they'd wash the
dishes. Don't fret. Just call your NSA rep and have him read the transcript.
~~~
rdtsc
There was an old running joke among mathematicians in university math
departments
"Q: How does one apply for a job with the NSA?"
"A: Pick up the phone, call your mother, and ask for the applications forms"
------
aasarava
" _Shamrock covered decades-old secret agreements with the nation 's large
telegraph companies under which NSA and its predecessor agencies automatically
received copies of international telegrams._
" _At the peak of the operation, in the early 1970s, NSA analysts were
reviewing 150,000 telegrams a month selected by computers scanning for
keywords of interest to U.S. intelligence. Only in 1975, as Senator Church 's
committee began its inquiry, was Shamrock stopped._"
------
irishcoffee
Holy shit, NSA is in the business of signals intelligence? Who knew?
------
general_failure
Alright guys, can we put an end to this NSA and Snowden stuff? Why are we
pretending this is some forum to discuss politics and ethics? This is a forum
for software and entrepreneurs. Can HN go back to it's roots?
Now, I am sure someone will immediately downvote and point out that this stuff
is 'interesting' and related to hackers because this is data theft. If you are
concerned, do something about NSA/Snowden. And then show HN what you have
done. You will have my highest regards. But just reading and commenting on
100's of articles rehashing the same thing is a pointless waste of time. This
is all getting very tiring. We have reddit for just this.
~~~
ewoodrich
Though the tone and relevance of your post may not have been spot on, I have
to agree. I spend an inordinate amount of my free time reading news and in-
depth political commentary, but I've found myself returning to HN less and
less as sophomoric legal analysis and cyber-anarchist hero worship is
regurgitated to the front page ad nauseam.
This is not to say I agree with "Prism" or dragnet surveillance, but I've
found HN to be the last place I've found actual insight on the issue as of
late.
~~~
moens
Dissing "cyber-anarchist hero worship" is awesomely ironic. ;)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Formula for better measuring improvements in SERP position over time? - forgot_password
Our startup is constantly focused on improving our SERP position for key, transactional terms. However, measuring progress on a weekly basis across thousands of terms can be a challenge. Moving from SERP position 45 to 40 is way easier than moving from 6 to 1, and this makes it challenging to determine holistically how much we are improving on a weekly basis across thousands of terms.<p>One can imagine that the SERP position vs. difficulty graph looks like 1/x where the y-axis is difficulty and the x-axis is SERP position. Thus, measuring improvement would involve summing 1/$current_serp_position - 1/$previous_serp_position for each term. This is obviously very crude, has anyone come up with a more refined and accurate way to measure this?
======
apowell
It's a bit noisier than pure SERP position, but tracking actual weekly traffic
from transactional keywords should naturally normalize the value of SERP gains
across keywords of differing popularity and rank.
------
flavy
There is a whole literature about it. Check
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discounted_Cumulative_Gain>
------
mattgratt
Not entirely sure what you're asking here, but if you're trying to measure
keyword difficulty, keyword rank, and their intersection, SEOMoz has tools w/
APIs for this.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Show HN: Covid Comply - ben-gy
https://covidcomply.com.au
======
ben-gy
In Victoria, Australia the government announced a mandate for capturing
contact details for all customers entering a variety of businesses reopening
on June 1.
There weren’t any solutions that made the user experience for everyone
involved simple and a “just works” type experience so I spent a couple of
weeks pulling this solution together.
I’d be keen to get feedback and ideas from the HN community about it,
particularly for its applicability in other countries as I’ve not heard much
about similar rules elsewhere except in New Zealand.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
When you can't (and shouldn't) unit test - atilaneves
https://atilaoncode.blog/2019/03/21/when-you-cant-and-shouldnt-unit-test/
======
atilaneves
I, a unit test aficionado, posit that sometimes unit testing is a bad choice
for your code. AMA.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Dell May Be Signaling New Type of Innovation With Lattitude-On - pchristensen
http://whydoeseverythingsuck.com/2008/08/dell-may-be-signaling-new-type-of.html
======
Alex3917
There is a rumor that Apple is going to add something extra to the Montevina
chipset, so it's possible that they will do the same by adding an Atom chip or
whatever they are using to power the iPhone.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: please rate my failure: Heicos - DeusExMachina
Today I took off the frontpage of my website the link to the page of the first app I made: Heicos, a mac app to track Zone Diet. Zone Diet is an alimentary lifestyle that is hard to follow because it requires a lot of calculations. So I made this app to ease the burden. After having it available for sale for one year and a half, I just sold three licenses, so it was a complete failure from a sales point of view (but I learned a lot in the process, of course). Taking it down from my website I thought this could be a good occasion for me and other people to learn from my mistakes (I already did learn, of course, but there could be something I missed). Here on HN we speak often about new cool startups/apps but very rarely about projects gone bad. Maybe this can be a valuable topic for someone.<p>Given that Apple is releasing the Mac App Store in the near future, I was wondering if the app is worth another try. I will decide based on the feedback I get from this thread. The page for the app is still available (I will take it down a few days from now, when this thread will be done): http://pawn-soft.com/heicos<p>This was my first application and I wrote it some years ago, when I was very naive. It took me a long time to write it (I was still inexperienced) and when I released it I was very excited and had big dreams of glory and success. But the app never took off.<p>My first error was that I did not have any marketing plan whatsoever. I just followed the old flawed adage "if you build it, they will come", and of course they didn't. I just started shooting in the dark after the first release on my website. The first thing I did was posting it to the Apple website and to other app listing websites (like VersionTracker, Softpedia and the like). I got some traffic and downloads, but not sales. The second action was a press release (through prmac.com). After this I started looking for blogs that targeted the Zone Diet niche, only to discover that it was really hard niche to reach. Almost all the (few) blogs I found were dead from a long time. I wrote to the few that were still active, offering a free license in hope of a review. Of these only a couple answered, but there was never a review. I posted it to the internal Apple website for employees, giving them a free license and, during the whole period, I received 700 license requests, which makes think that maybe the app os not so worthless and there was maybe something flawed in my whole marketing process.<p>After this I started losing faith in the app and I moved to other projects. The software has been downloaded almost 4000 times since the beginning, which could mean that there is some interst in it, but there was never any feedback apart for two emails (yes, only two) just asking to put more food in the initial app database. But these feedbacks came in very lately and filling the app required a lot of long and tedious work, so I never did it considering it not worth the effort, since the app was not selling (maybe this was a big mistake?).<p>After all this, what do you think about it? Is there enough evidence that the project is not worth spending time on it? Or maybe I am just missing something really obvious?
======
silverlight
It might just be that the diet program itself is too niche...I've certainly
never heard of it. I think if you were looking for blogs that covered the diet
program, and only found a few (that were long dead), that should be a pretty
strong clue that maybe there just isn't enough interest in that program to
warrant an app.
Also, pawn-soft is not a great name for a company...I realized after going to
the site that you meant a chess piece pawn, but at least for me the first
thing I think of when I see pawn is a Pawn Shop, which has a lot of negativity
associated with it in most people's minds. Especially on the Internet where a
lot of folks are already wary of getting scammed, you might want to change the
name to something else.
~~~
DeusExMachina
Not being an english speaker, I did not know the connotation of the word. Even
looking on google, I still don't get what exactly a pawn shop is.
Anyway, I will definitely change the name, then! Thank you for this feedback,
nobody ever made me notice this.
~~~
silverlight
No problem, and I didn't know if you were in the U.S. or not. In the U.K. I
think they're called "Pawnbrokers"...
------
percept
If the niche is too narrow, can you adapt the software to target the broader
diet/nutrition market?
I agree with silverlight that "pawn" doesn't have the greatest connotation in
the U.S. (your company's "Ltd"; are you in the U.K.?).
If that's a concern, and you're committed to the company name, one option
would be to build a product-based site targeting your market with the
appropriate keywords/content, while pushing the company name into the
background.
~~~
DeusExMachina
Yes, I was based in the UK, but now I'm moving it to Amsterdam. So the name is
not a concern. It will require some redesign for the logo, but that's not a
big deal. Thank you for the feedback.
------
DeusExMachina
Clickable link: <http://pawn-soft.com/heicos>
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Better protection against Man in the Middle phishing attacks - guessmyname
https://security.googleblog.com/2019/04/better-protection-against-man-in-middle.html
======
sroussey
So, blocking Firefox on iOS, for example?
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
How to Become a JavaScript Badass - shawndumas
http://www.clientcide.com/deep-thoughts/how-to-become-a-javascript-badass/
======
NZGumboot
If you want to really understand the language, do what I did, and write a
compiler (<http://jurassic.codeplex.com/>). You'll learn about fun oddities,
like why the lexical scope introduced by the catch block is different from any
other type of scope and why declaring variables inside an eval is different
from declaring variables in the parent scope.
------
jrockway
Seriously? "Join a startup."?
Here's how to actually be good at JavaScript, or anything. Practice.
~~~
oinopion
Because start-up require people to do all kind of stuff. You'll learn front-
end and (some) back-end and will have bigger picture, which generally is "A
Good Thing".
~~~
dagw
I currently work at a largish consulting firm and get all those things, plus I
don't have to settle for "long hours and low pay". Perhaps "work at a company
that lets you work on interesting problems and learn new skills" would be far
better advice. There is no reason why that has to be a start-up, nor is there
a guarantee that a start-up will give you those things.
~~~
oinopion
True, there's no guarantee. There's no guarantee that you'll find "work at a
company that lets you work on interesting problems and learn new skills".
Everything here is subjective. :]
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
First Test of Seismic Invisibility Cloak - tarunmitra
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/510716/first-test-of-seismic-invisibility-cloak/
======
ChuckMcM
Not sure when folks will start using meta-materials to shield their border
crossing tunnels from ground penetrating radar but you know its coming.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Nature – The easiest way to analyze your data - gracehopper
http://www.nature42.com/
======
cromulent
I'm finding your username disturbing.
------
samedi
Pretty cool. Just signed up!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Vanadium redox battery - fpoling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium_redox_battery
======
kumarvvr
These are fascinating batteries. Yes, their energy density is less than Li-Ion
but, are most suitable to cater to intermittent power sources such as Solar
and Wind.
Hopefully, with enough space, a solar or wind generating station can be turned
into a base load station. I guess that's where data analysis and computing
will help.
An intelligent power controller / charger could theoretically turn a single
wind turbine into a miniature base load plant, i.e, a power source that
supplies constant power, buffered by these flow batteries.
I am hopeful that with better materials, not only with the flow batteries be
eco-friendly, but also more energy dense.
Also, in the future, such batteries hopefully could make an individual house
completely grid independent.
~~~
maxerickson
There's no real compelling reason to locate the batteries near the generator.
~~~
throwaway2048
Not next door no, but they are going to have to be in roughly the same region,
because power losses over long distance transmission become significant in
pretty short order.
~~~
Gibbon1
I think you put the batteries near the load point. Transmission losses are
more painful for higher cost energy (battery storage), than low cost (excess
wind power).
------
jordz
Vanadium batteries are very promising, however the energy density is the main
issue here. Lead Acid batteries have a better ratio however obviously lead is
toxic and it requires more than just lead. The fact that Vanadium batteries
capacity is limited to just the size of the tank (slight oversimplification)
is a positive for sure, their life span is also a positive factor. It also,
while classed as toxic, is not classed a seriously hazardous.
~~~
dogma1138
Like most redox/flow batteries they have a very big shortcoming and that is a
very limited operating temp range for vanadium it’s 10-40c that means they’ll
need environmental controls installed in almost every case.
~~~
cesarb
Given that these batteries would be used mostly in stationary applications,
where space is less of a problem, the only question is how much extra power
would the heaters and/or coolers need, and how much waste heat the
charge/discharge releases (some of the waste heat could be used instead of the
heaters, but would put more demand on the cooling system). Unless the amount
of waste heat is too high, it doesn't sound like too much of problem to me;
given proper insulation, most of the heat would come from the battery itself.
~~~
dogma1138
Cooling/heating Li-Ion batteries which have a wider range and are mechanically
easier to cool than liquid Redox batteries is a big challenge, this one is a
much bigger one.
------
jaclaz
The temperature limits issues can be (in most cases) solved by simply putting
the batteries underground.
If you can go deep enough, temperature is almost constant, check, as an
example, Fig. 4 here:
[https://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/Cooling/EarthTemperatu...](https://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/Cooling/EarthTemperatures.htm)
------
edward
Vanadium is the latest beneficiary of the battery craze
A metal used to harden steel could also help prevent global warming
[https://www.economist.com/business/2018/07/21/vanadium-is-
th...](https://www.economist.com/business/2018/07/21/vanadium-is-the-latest-
beneficiary-of-the-battery-craze)
------
walrus01
One company attempting to make commercial products:
[https://www.google.com/search?q=storen+technologies&oq=store...](https://www.google.com/search?q=storen+technologies&oq=storen+tech&aqs=chrome.4.69i57j69i60l3j0l2.4896j0j4&sourceid=chrome-
mobile&ie=UTF-8)
On a bigger Grid scale:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UniEnergy_Technologies](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UniEnergy_Technologies)
------
syntaxing
I'm super confused...a lot of people say that this battery works only between
10-40C but I remember a couple weeks ago and there was a Stanford article on
how they made a mebrane operate at room and high (200C). Is the 10-40C a limit
on Vanadium or the membrane used?! If it is the membrane, does that mean the
article is click bait?!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Attorneys Suspect Motel 6 Calling ICE on Undocumented Guests - leephillips
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/motel-6-calling-ice-undocumented-guests-phoenix-immigration-lawyers-9683244
======
pavlov
_" We send a report every morning to ICE — all the names of everybody that
comes in. Every morning at about 5 o’clock, we do the audit and we push a
button and it sends it to ICE."_
Freedom-loving right wing patriots are turning America into East Germany. The
irony burns like acid.
~~~
slamdance
It started under Obama, but keep up the Left-Right narrative.
[https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150418/11370530715/motel...](https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150418/11370530715/motel-
decides-it-should-just-start-faxing-all-guest-info-to-local-police-every-
night.shtml)
------
mikeash
It is fascinating how strongly some people react to illegal immigrants.
Does Motel 6 hand over their guest list to local police so they can check to
see if any of them are wanted for murder or rape? Nope! But being in the
country illegally? Can't have that!
I wonder what the false positive rate is. If I had a common Hispanic name
like, say, José Sanchez, I'd stay the hell away from Motel 6. Who knows where
I might end up.
~~~
phkahler
>> Does Motel 6 hand over their guest list to local police so they can check
to see if any of them are wanted for murder or rape? Nope! But being in the
country illegally? Can't have that!
Everyone has their thing, and they are here illegally - not just
undocumentedly as the media keeps trying to repaint it. But I'm curious who
they hire for housekeeping at motel 6, I suspect they may be using the same
type of people they are reporting and that would IMHO be rather umm... Choose
your words for that.
They might also call the local police if a guy with some young girls was
staying there with a constant string of men dropping by. You don't know that
illegals are the only ones they like to report.
~~~
mikeash
They're not reporting suspected illegal immigrants to ICE. They're sending
their entire guest list to ICE every day. This is quite different from calling
the cops when you have some actual reason to suspect a crime is in progress.
------
larrik
Yes: [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/motel-6-admits-
immigrati...](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/motel-6-admits-immigration-
reports_us_59b9e79be4b086432b04471f)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
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Ask HN: (how often) do you clear your cookies? - Someone
In light of the discussion w.r.t. Google working around Safari's "do not accept third party cookies" setting, I wonder whether people clear their cookies (web and Flash) regularly, and if so, how often. Related to that, do you use private mode as a means to fight tracking?
======
a_a_r_o_n
Almost never.
I used to clear history, cookies, everything on browser restart.
I've let the water wash over me, and now I like typing things in the address
bar and already being there, or being remembered like Norm when I visit a site
again.
Rarely a site will piss me off and I'll go in and delete _their_ cookies. I
know they can feel it when I do that.
------
rplnt
Never manually. But I use multiple browsers (Opera, Chrome, sometimes Firefox)
simultaneously (well, in parallel) and I have separate work and personal
computers. Sometimes I even use private browsing; and not only for "buying
presents".
But I believe this doesn't prevent me from Google knowing all about it.
Whether I use one browser or other, private browsing or not. Some do-not-track
extension which would completely block downloading and executing of tracking
scripts might have help. But I'm not that paranoid. Yet.
------
mike-cardwell
I use a Firefox addon named Cookie Monster. All cookies, not just third party
cookies are blocked by default. When you come across a site where you need
cookies, you select one of four options from the icon on the status bar:
1.) Temporarily allow cookies from example.com
2.) Accept cookies from example.com
3.) Reject cookies from example.com
4.) Accept session cookies from example.com
For news.ycombinator.com, I selected option 4 the first time I needed to log
in and it is persistent.
The only time you ever need to accept cookies from a site, is when you're
logging in to something, or buying something. And there's never any need to
accept anything other than session cookies. You don't _need_ cookies at all to
browse news sites or blogs etc.
This is an incredibly small amount of work. It is considerably less work than
NoScript or RequestPolicy for example. And it provides so many benefits. Most
days I don't even need to touch the Cookie Monster configuration. It's only
when I sign up for something new or buy something from a new site, and it's a
two second job, and I can usually recognise that I'm going to need to do it
before anything even breaks.
EDIT: Also, Firefox is set to completely clear my history on exit. Including
history, cache and offline website data. I've never felt that doing this made
my web browsing any more inconvenient.
~~~
pan69
Does any know if there is something similar to Cookie Monster for Chrome?
Since recently I only visit Facebook in an incognito window for the purpose of
cookies. I'd like to block all sites by default as well.
------
garethsprice
Never, for regular browsing.
I use Firefox's Web Developer plugin to clear cookies for a specific domain if
I'm developing and need to test clearing cookies.
If I don't trust a site or don't want it leaving traces I'll use Chrome's
Incognito mode.
Never really got the fuss about cookies, some people seem really paranoid and
diligent about clearing them. I don't really care, and I'm usually very
mindful of privacy issues.
~~~
mike-cardwell
Here is one reason you might block/clear cookies, and be concerned about these
issues:
If you want to use a Google or Facebook account, but at the same time, you
don't want them to be able to link your general browsing history outside of
Google/Facebook with your account. ie, the sites you visit and when you visit
them.
I don't think it's fair to call people with that sort of concern, "paranoid".
I think "prudent", "informed" or "sensible" are more appropriate words.
------
waitwhat
I set Firefox and Chrome to clear everything when they're closed. All my
logins are managed through KeePass, so logging back into a website is just one
keypress away.
~~~
kxs
Do you use an extension in Chrome to do this or surf permanently incognito? I
was under the impression that it's not (yet) possible to do so automatically
in Chrome (vanilla).
~~~
waitwhat
Wrench -> Options -> Under the Hood -> Privacy -> Content Settings... ->
Cookies -> "Clear cookies and other site data when I close my browser"
~~~
kxs
Thanks, my fault, I mixed it up with "Clear Browsing Data".
------
dgallagher
I reset Safari on OSX frequently, and do the same with Chrome.
On iOS I run Safari in private browsing mode all the time. Not really to auto-
delete cookies (it does that), but because if you have a history of websites
and you start typing in the address bar, it attempts to auto-complete the
URIs, which freezes Safari for a second, and delays keyboard inputting. Apple
doesn't have a time-delay of 1-2 seconds after the previous keystroke, so its
auto-complete is really annoying and slows down/breaks the UI. Bookmarks have
to be empty too to work.
That said, private-mode iOS Safari crashes a whole lot more than non-private
mode. This usually happens on newspaper websites (UI hell) when all of the ad
network and javascript widget garbage attempt to load. If you hit Stop-Loading
after the article text is loaded, but before that other crap does, it fixes
the problem. Funny, but disabling Javascript seems to crash more than leaving
it on, but on different websites, likely for different reasons.
------
icebraining
Until recently, never. Now I've started allowing them only for the session,
except for a few websites like HN. Of course, my session usually lasts for
days, even a week or more (I rarely shutdown the laptop, I just put it to
sleep).
I wonder if there's an addon for Firefox to clear them after a few hours.
------
spindritf
I have Firefox configured to remove almost everything on exit, including
cookies and flash cookies, also do it manually when I'm switching proxies,
have disabled third party cookies which seems to be working in Firefox
(<http://www.google.com/ads/preferences/?hl=en> returns "Cookies are
disabled").
As preventive measures I have Ghostery, NoScript, and Adblock with EasyPrivacy
list <https://easylist.adblockplus.org/en/> installed and only use Chromium in
private mode when the site is some cool demo from HN, as those tend not to
work with all the limitations. Next up: full blown paranoia and Qubes (I'm
only half joking).
------
foreverbanned
Firefox : everytime I close it, and third party cookies not allowed.
Chrome : never
I use Chrome almost exclusively to check my gmail account and Firefox for
everything else.
I am aware that Chrome and Firefox share a flash cookie on the subdomain
mail.google.com, but apparently it does not contain tracking data. Moreover it
is not supposed to be sent when I use the main domain (if adobe follows the
RFC). Google.com could hide an iframe pointing to mail.google.com but they
wouln't dare, would they ?
So I think I am pretty safe from google tracking for now. Anyway, when I have
time I will search HN comments and the web for a list of hostnames to map to
127.0.0.1 in my hosts file.
------
SquareWheel
Rarely, and usually unintentionally. I have tried tools to prevent tracking
such as Ghostery in the past, and my experience is that it breaks the web so
much it's not worth the trouble.
~~~
zalew
How does it break the web exactly? I use ghostery and don't experience it.
~~~
SquareWheel
I spent far too long finding web sites that failed to load or experienced
problems, and constantly tracked them back to Ghostery. It was actually
interfering with web development, and so I uninstalled it after 5 days or so.
I use adblock plus* and click-to-play flash embeds now. Occasionally a website
breaks because of it, but very rarely.
*I whitelist websites I want to support, but a lot of websites go too far. I've been the 1,000,000th site visitor too many times.
------
Sander_Marechal
Never (well, once a year manually or so). But if there was a Firefox plugin
that let me clear my cookies on shutdown _except_ for cookies of sites I want
to keep, I'd use that!
~~~
hansen
Check "Accept cookies from from sites" and choose "Keep until I close FF".
Then add exceptions w/ status "Allow" for sites you want to store cookies.
~~~
ben0x539
This is what I do, too.
------
paulsutter
I believe the most common cause of cookie deletion is hitting the browser
cookie limit, and old cookies rolling off. The sheer number of JavaScript tags
on websites (I've seen a list of over 600 third party trackers), multiplied by
the number of sites you visit for those trackers that create per domain
cookies (for example google analytics), then add in the multiple unintentional
cookies created by programming frameworks on each domain, and the limit gets
hit pretty fast.
------
code_pockets
I run with the most strict settings that firefox has to offer. No cookies,
private browsing, no JS, etc.
On top of that, I use noscript, ghostery, the web dev toolbar, better privacy,
and adblock.
Only use cookies to log into HN to post (I browse without logging in), my
email, and other programming-related page (such as /r/programming).
I also use a proxy for those times that I must use Google (my search engine of
choice is Duck Duck Go (it works great)).
------
dhruvasagar
I am a web developer, so I delete them quite often while working. Although
when I am not working, never.
------
artellectual
I reset my cookies all the time, when doing development on my machine
sometimes, the browsers just need a good reset to behave normally again.
------
jrubinovitz
I do it weekly, but mainly because I experiment a lot with my OS and will
generally have to re-install it once a week.
------
railsmax
I can't remember when I do this. I use ubuntu - so I do not afraid of
malicious programs, and only I have got access to my computer.
~~~
chrisacky
You realise the ignorance and nativity in this statement? I use Ubuntu also,
but that doesn't absolve/protect me from all potential issues I may run in
when browsing/using the web.
Heck, the original poster may have actually been refering to clearing the
cookies to avoid tracking.
However, when things like <http://samy.pl/evercookie/> exist, it makes it even
more harder to avoid tracking cookies.
Andd moreover, "only I have got access to my computer". You are every non-
ecrypted hop you make from your system to the target network has access to
your requests, making you vulnerable to man in the middle attacks.
I think you were/are just a little misguided.
~~~
railsmax
What are you afraid of?? Did smth bad happened with you?
------
vseorlov
Never, I dont need it.
------
kenneth_reitz
Never.
------
ranit8
I set Firefox to auto-remove cookies when closing it. I mostly navigate in
private mode. Whenever I find something slightly interesting I bookmark it.
Later I switch to normal mode, navigate all the new links to put them in
history, and remove them from bookmarks. So I can keep a tiny[1] searchable
history and not spam the bookmarks.
[1] it was tiny until I met HN, now it grows like a monster.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Internationalization on the web – why is it so bad? - babelfisherman
http://www.planetjones.co.uk/blog/27-04-2014/web-internationalization-often-inconsistent.html
======
lcedp
Totally agree. It's a shame few websites pay attention to the Accept-Language
header.
Although I'm not fluent in English I do always prefer it to local languages
when it comes to nonlocal websites since even giants like Facebook and Google
can't get their translation right:
1\. Almost always translated version is substantially outdated.
2\. A lot of inconsistency like using different synonyms in different places
for the same word in English locale.
3\. Some sentences are just not translated.
------
tr8n
Please take a look at Tr8nHub.com
Our platform with all the SDKs (for mobile, web and desktop) addresses all of
the concerns you've raised. The SDKs will choose language based on your
preferences in the browser, mobile device or OS, yet you are also given a
choice to override the defaults by choosing a specific language.
------
ASneakyFox
There's a reason it's called "the web"
~~~
babelfisherman
?
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Xbox Sphinx Protocol - Danieru
http://multimedia.cx/eggs/xbox-sphinx-protocol/
======
bpicolo
I love reading about things like this because it's so far from my realm of any
sort of expertise with programming.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Brazil’s Love Affair with Uber Has Been Ruined by Kidnapping, Robbery and Murder - MilnerRoute
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/brazils-love-affair-with-uber-has-been-ruined-by-kidnapping-robbery-and-murder
======
soneca
I dont like Uber as a company, but I feel this journalist is trying to hurt
the Uber brand more than reporting the facts and inform people.
Brazil has a very high crime rate. Our northeast capital cities (where Uber
started to accept cash as customers were asking for this) are among the most
dangerous in the world regarding murder rate.
The "express kidnapping" is very very common here in São Paulo.
If you consider the crime problem in Brazil, Uber is quite irrelevant on all
of this. And it is fairly obvious that if have a big enough operation here,
crime will happens to you too.
I am not saying that Uber has no responsibilities in supporting its drivers
and passengers (preventing before and supporting after the crime). But this
story seems to just want to capitalize on Uber bad reputation.
And the title is quite exagerated and click baity
~~~
manarth
"I feel this journalist is trying to hurt the Uber brand more than reporting the facts"
"Brazil has a very high crime rate."
"If you consider the crime problem in Brazil, Uber is quite irrelevant on all of this."
The article is pretty clear about these points.
_" It's undeniable that Brazil has a crime problem, regardless of Uber."_
_" The problem was that Uber started allowing cash payments without upgrading
its weak registration system for passengers."_
_" Data showed a massive increase in the number of attacks against Uber
drivers since the unveiling of cash payment"_
The article also publishes Uber's counter-argument:
_" The company says they can't be held accountable for incidents that could
happen to any other driver, including non-Uber taxi drivers"_
On the whole, it feels a fairly balanced article, discussing facts, and
providing rational, articulated, reasoned perspective.
~~~
markovbling
I spoke to some Uber drivers in Johannesburg (also insane murder rate) and
they said the same thing - things got dangerous when they started having to
carry cash.
Worst thing is they were sold on becoming Uber drivers with the promise that
it would be less dangerous because it was cashless...
~~~
buyx
There have been serious incidents involving Uber in a South Africa, including
a rape and robbery, by an Uber driver.
[http://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/two-held-for-
brutal-a...](http://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/two-held-for-brutal-
attacks-on-uber-passengers-2066912)
------
aianus
I don't see how Uber is special in this regard vs. traditional taxis. If
you're willing to rob a taxi driver you can rob an Uber driver too and vice
versa.
At least Uber gives the police more to go on during their investigation (GPS
logs, ID info).
~~~
alphonsegaston
Maybe, but I think the point of this article is that networks are agnostic
barring intervention to protect them from certain kinds of "traffic". It's
easier/more efficient to coordinate crimes on Uber's network in the same way
that it's easier to serve malware through ad platforms. Criminals in Brazil
are turning Ubers into a real world botnet and Uber is shrugging it off.
------
rapfaria
Living in Sao Paulo, I only take Uber when it's really hot and I don't feel
like using the subway.
Uber drivers are constantly at war with taxi drivers, to the point that if I
know there's a taxi stand close to where I'm going to, I'll set the
destination a little further away.
I can't remember a single Uber driver telling me he started making more money
when he started accepting cash. Most of them said they would never accept
anything besides credit card, for safety.
~~~
Semaphor
> Uber drivers are constantly at war with taxi drivers
Currently living in Pretoria, South Africa (close to Joburg). Drop off and
pick up points can't be where there are several cabs and when we went to
Joburg directly there was even a police presence to prevent violence towards
uber drivers.
------
alister
> _Recently, Uber announced that another layer of security would be added.
> Users who want to pay in cash must also provide their date of birth and
> CPF._
Uber is under pressure to do _something_ , so they did something that is both
ineffective and frustrating!
Name + CPF + birthdate is not an effective security measure in Brazil because
anyone can find a valid combination on the web. And visitors to Brazil
obviously won't have CPF numbers, so this security measure is going to be a
hassle for them.
I'll explain a little bit more about why the CPF is so easy to discover and
misappropriate:
Brazilians are asked for their CPF number everywhere. (The CPF is the
Brazilian equivalent of the U.S. social security number.) You're asked for it
when taking an inter-city bus, special ordering a book at a bookstore, or
signing the register in a building lobby. Birthdate is asked less often but
still much more commonly than in the U.S. The reason is often _not for
security_ but to _disambiguate_ people.
In Brazil, 10% of the population has Silva as a last name[1]. An incredibly
large percentage of people have Maria, Ana, Jose, Joao as first names. If
you're American, a name like "John Smith" sounds so common that it's the
subject of jokes ("you made up that name?"), yet you might not actually know
any John Smith's. But a Brazilian probably knows a bunch of Maria Silva's,
Jose Da Silva's, and Ana DaSilva's.
You need a way to reliably differentiate between two Maria Silva's, so
Brazilians ask for the CPF (and sometimes birthdate). And universities and
governments regularly publish lists with peoples' full names and their CPF
numbers to show graduations, admissions, fines, licensing info, whatever. All
you need to do is google for <any name> \+ CPF, and you can find thousands of
PDFs files with thousands of CPF numbers and birthdates (examples: [2][3]).
Furthermore, this is terrible for law-abiding visitors to Brazil because it
becomes impossible to use services that demand a CPF number. For instance, as
a visitor, you can't buy a ticket on any of the Brazilian airlines through the
web[4]. The only exception is TAM (now LATAM) that has a portal for foreigners
that charges 50-100% more than a Brazilian would pay for the same flight. I
don't know how Uber has implemented their new security procedure, but I'm
betting that it won't be convenient for visitors!
[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_common_surnames_i...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_common_surnames_in_South_America#Brazil)
[2] [https://www10.trf2.jus.br/ai/wp-
content/uploads/sites/3/2015...](https://www10.trf2.jus.br/ai/wp-
content/uploads/sites/3/2015/08/sjrj-res-102-sjrj-anexo-v-ref-2015-07-.pdf)
[3]
[https://www.esteio.rs.gov.br/documents/Editais/secretaria/SM...](https://www.esteio.rs.gov.br/documents/Editais/secretaria/SME/2014-02/edital_02-14_notaspreviasefinaisprofessores.pdf)
[4]
[http://brazilsense.com/index.php?title=Booking_a_domestic_fl...](http://brazilsense.com/index.php?title=Booking_a_domestic_flight_within_Brazil#Difficulties_of_airline_booking_for_visitors_to_Brazil)
~~~
homakov
I've easily bought flights Rio-SP and to Iguaza with Expedia. Using airline's
website is always a bad idea, anywhere. From broken JS to 500 web server, they
just suck. Always use proper aggregator.
~~~
alister
Oh, I beg to differ. Although airline websites are frequently awful, I always
prefer to avoid a middleman if I can. There are things that can go wrong
between an aggregator and the merchant. More than once in Brazil I've seen a
guest arguing at the check-in counter of a hotel -- he's showing a printout of
his payment through an aggregator and the hotel manager is saying that they
never got the payment and that if he wants to stay, he'll have to pay again
and take up the problem with the aggregator himself.
~~~
homakov
Airlines aren't like hotels. Aggregation systems are very mature and I never
ever heard someone booking and not being able to fly. Plus the price is nearly
the same. Plus you don't need to expose your CC to local airline website full
of holes.
------
grumpynumpy
Seems like Brazil is in dire need of electronic payments systems, like wechat.
~~~
Gys
I am in Rio now since a week. I think this country has much more urgent needs
then electronic payment systems...
Anyways, card payments are more common here then in some European countries,
like Portugal or Italy (many EU countries can be traveled cashless). So I was
surprised Uber accepted cash payments in Rio (nowhere in Europe, I think).
Maybe its because of the tipping ? Adding 10% service fee to any bill seems
extremely universal.
EDIT: thanks ufo for the comment. I thought it extended to other services as
well.
EDIT: I also found this background article on Uber cash payments in Brazil:
[http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uber-cash-
pol...](http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uber-cash-policy-
brazil-spikes-robberies-against-drivers-2017-2-1001747769) It says: 'Just 20
percent of payments in Brazil are made digitally' \- so that is why cash was
introduced
~~~
ufo
In Brazil, tipping is only common on restaurant bills and it is very uncommon
for other services. I have never seen anyone tip a taxi.
~~~
yuriks
I'm native from Rio Grande do Sul. I often tipped taxis (usually by "rounding
up" the value to make change easier too) and I don't think I've ever tipped at
a restaurant. Might depend on the region, but I was under the impression that
this was pretty universal.
~~~
alister
What you and the parent say are not inconsistent.
You tip taxis by "rounding up", but the parent says he never tips. By
_American standards_ , rounding up (i.e., up to 50 cents) is not tipping. Taxi
drivers in the U.S. and Canada expect 10-15%, or even more in New York City,
though their expectations have probably gone down since Uber arrived.
The parent say "tipping is only common on restaurant bills". I'm pretty sure
that the parent is referring to the 10% service fee, which is always optional,
but that everyone pays unless the service was really bad[1]. You don't call
that tipping but since it's optional, it's very similar to a tip.
[1]
[http://brazilsense.com/index.php?title=Tipping,_fraud,_and_s...](http://brazilsense.com/index.php?title=Tipping,_fraud,_and_shop_etiquette#Tipping)
~~~
literallycancer
>By American standards, rounding up (i.e., up to 50 cents) is not tipping.
How would you call it?
------
aml183
I took Uber while I was in Rio. It was perfectly safe. Uber Black is much
different in Brazil than it is in the United States. You aren't getting into
an Escalade, but typically a Toyota or Honda. Also, you could only pay via
credit card. Maybe this is limited to Sao Paulo, but most Brazilians I spoke
to were happy that Uber was in Brazil.
~~~
cesarbs
> You aren't getting into an Escalade, but typically a Toyota or Honda.
Keep in mind that popular cars in the US can be luxury cars in Brazil. My
Brazilian friends' first reaction when I tell them I have a Honda Civic here
is "damn, freaking awesome, you're loaded!"... and then I tell them that's a
pretty basic car in America :)
~~~
ascorbic
This is probably in part because import duties in Brazil are insane, so an
imported car is much, much more expensive than it would be in the US.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
PaaS Stackato v3.0 just released - Nassfyr
http://www.activestate.com/blog/2013/12/activestate-stackato-v30-now-available
======
nickstinemates
Congratulations to Stackato on a great release. I love seeing more and more
Docker-based PaaS being built.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: My company plans an ICO despite my opposition as CTO, any advice? - anononpurpose
I'm really sorry for creating a new account to stay anonymous. Feel free to ban this one if it is considered misbehavior.<p>Having that said, you can read the full story on my first comment below.
======
anononpurpose
I'm in my late 20s. It's been almost 4 years since we founded our startup
company. We pitched for a year and eventually gathered enough investment to
give it a go. The initial plan was to release our app in the local market
(middle east) and aim for more users. At the end of first year, with the
approval of the board, we decided to delay marketing spending for more
development to polish existing features as well as to add more ones. We
revoked one feature (not ads) which would provide early cash flow as it turned
out to be too ambitious and rash.
We pivoted and decided to go global with our proven to be fun features
highlighted. It went smooth and retention rates grew tremendously until
finally the day for series A arrived. The lead investor (the one with the most
equity) already hinted that he would be willing to invest, some others
followed as well. They are all angels btw.
Mails exchanged, meetings happened, places were visited and it turned out what
we can gather is not enough to handle marketing costs for aimed growth. We
contacted people from crowd equity funding companies. Apparently, none of them
is currently accepting applicants from our country.
During our last meeting, the board discussed the idea of an initial coin
offering. Some of our investors are crypto enthusiasts and many of them think
it is a good idea to fund a project publicly with tokens. The thing is, our
product doesn't resemble anything like a currency, not even a commodity in my
opinion. It sounds unnaturally arbitrary to have tokens inside our app, or a
token with our app's branding on top. Moreover, as someone who is the most
technically proficient person in the board, I can easily deduce that all the
proposals about hows and whys of the ICO resembles an obfuscated fraud. I
couldn't believe what I heard that day and it seems I am the only one who
thinks that way.
I plan to spend my all remaining days until the next meeting to prepare the
hugest report ever written, hoping it will prove that it is the worst idea we
ever discussed. As my voting rights being limited, I have no idea what to do
if my report doesn't stop its happening. I still need to work for a year to
permanently gain rights on my own equity. If I quit now, I'll lose everything
except the lessons learned during these 4 years.
My question is, what would you do?
~~~
blueadept111
Here's an opposing view, from someone a little older and maybe a little wiser.
In the big scheme of things, you're not that important. Your company is also
not that important, and whether or not your company chooses to adopt this coin
is not that important. If it's a "fraud" by your definition, then many, many
other coins (and companies, for that matter) are also fraudulent, and it's not
a very important fraud, so don't worry so much about saving the world from it.
If you have any interest in working on blockchain technology, go with the
flow. Leverage what skills and advantages you have in your life, don't burn
bridges, and especially try to keep from burning your bridges because of ego
issues. Remember, you're not that important. But you are important enough to
do what you enjoy, important enough to have people in your life and career who
look out for you, and important enough that every single day you learn
something or work on something that progresses your ambition in some way.
Maybe this coin offering can be a part of that and maybe not, but the answer
is more likely to be found within your own psychology than the details of this
particular technological/business crossroads.
~~~
actsasbuffoon
Or maybe they actually see something that other people are failing to see.
I was in a position like that a few years ago. A manager a few levels above me
had done a severely flawed study, and proposed completely restructuring our
company's revenue model based on the results. He pitched it to us before going
to the executive team. I pointed out that his numbers were too small to
achieve statistical significance, and he was inconsistent in how he calculated
the key metric in the study.
Another engineer in the room indicated that they were also concerned that he
was proposing a massive change to our company based on very shaky evidence.
Other people mostly sat quiet, too scared to make the manager angry.
And indeed, he got pretty pissed. He pretty much told me to shut up, and I let
it go. I really wish I hadn't, because the results were even worse than I'd
imagined.
He took it to the executives who loved it, and promptly restructured the
company. We lost 2/3 of our revenue almost overnight. Investors were furious,
and many of them sued us. Most of the executives were forced out, and the
company was sold off for a tiny fraction of its previous value to one of our
competitors.
The acquisition didn't go well. A lot of my co-workers lost their jobs in the
process. I was fine because I saw the writing on the wall, and I started
interviewing almost as soon as that disastrous meeting adjourned. I was long
gone by the time the hammer fell.
I feel really shitty about being bullied into silence. I saved my own ass, but
dozens of people lost their jobs. I could have fought harder for them. Yeah, I
probably would have made things worse for myself, and I might have even gotten
fired. I still feel like I did the wrong thing.
~~~
stevewilhelm
I would recommend pointing out errors one on one, not in a meeting of a
manager's direct reports.
In this one on one, I would feign having trouble understanding the model and
ask the manager to walk you through it in more detail so you can understand
it. During the review, ask some pointed questions that will lead the manager
towards the error.
In many cases while explaining the model in detail, the manager will discover
the error on their own.
This approach allows the manager to save face. Many times, the manager will be
very relieved and many times they will realize you knew there was an error all
along.
~~~
hugs
I like this approach. It sounds like a play right out of "How to Win Friends
and Influence People". But... This also needs a good chunk of maturity and
trust in both the employee and manager. Doesn't mean don't try it, but also
don't be surprised if it doesn't work.
~~~
sasas
It plays out exactly as described in "Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking
When Stakes Are High"[1]. Recommended.
[1] [https://www.amazon.com/Crucial-Conversations-Talking-
Stakes-...](https://www.amazon.com/Crucial-Conversations-Talking-Stakes-
Second/dp/1469266822)
------
gumby
#1, if you think the company is going to go ahead with something fraudulent,
leave. This has nothing to do with your CTO role -- applies to any job at any
company.
#2: is it fraudulent? Some people think all ICOs are fraudulent, some
reasonable people may disagree. If you think all ICOs are fraudulent, see #1
above. Or if you think they are legit but this one has fraud in it, ditto. But
(not knowing the situation) you may be overreacting.
#3: Sticking tokens into the app may simply be a dumb business decision, but
not actual fraud. It's OK for you to disagree with a business decision, but if
you don't agree with the direction, at the end of the day too bad. "CTO" can
mean a lot of things but it's rarely an executional job -- most often it's
"chief talking officer". So your opinion counts, but shouldn't be decisive. If
you decide "well, OK it's not fraud, just bogus" you have to stop complaining
about it OR leave.
Finally...lots of good ideas look weird from a technical basis. I thought
YouTube was weird: why sort content by media type -- shouldn't a video about X
be part of a web page about X? I thought the Apple II was weird: who wants a
home computer you didn't design and build yourself? Clearly I was wrong!
But if actual bad behaviour is the plan, do leave, even if you think they will
get away with it.
~~~
AlexCoventry
Fraud is not the only issue. OP needs to assess what his liability will be if
the SEC concludes that the token is an unregistered security and demands that
the company return all funds to investors.
~~~
wslh
Companies doing responsible ICOs should seek legal advice and this is part of
the cost.
Disclaimer: my company does ICO campaigns, assesment, development, and
security audits, but we add external lawyers to the loop.
~~~
scoot
/disclaimer/disclosure/
When you disclose somthing, that's a disclosure.
~~~
wslh
Thank you! My fault. The edit option for the comment expired.
------
alrs
Being a corporate officer means getting-the-fuck-out-of-Dodge the moment
things get questionable.
Check out "STRICT LIABILITY FOR CORPORATE EXECUTIVES" on page 3:
[http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/files/20160801-criminal-a...](http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/files/20160801-criminal-
and-civil-liability-for-corporations-officers-and-directors-142383.pdf)
~~~
metafunctor
OP is in the middle east, so the linked document is probably not relevant.
However, similar laws do exist in many countries.
~~~
busterarm
It will affect them if they plan on traveling to the United States...ever.
------
__abc
I and fellow colleagues had to do this once. As a founder I gave up 7 years of
building that company due to some really unethical moves by the CEO.
At the end of the day, as a c-suite officer, I would have been liable by being
complicit.
Once I stated my objection, I and my fellow c-suite colleagues went to the
board with our objection, and CEO decided to continue executing the unethical
behavior, I and a few of my c-suite colleagues all bailed. That sucked hard.
PS. That signal from us leaving ended up preventing the securities fraud that
was about to happen.
~~~
otoburb
>> _I and my fellow c-suite colleagues went to the board with our objection,
and CEO decided to continue executing the unethical behavior, I and a few of
my c-suite colleagues all bailed. That sucked hard._
Your board should have taken action against the CEO if the behaviour or
decision was indeed unethical. Allowing the CEO to proceed means the deck was
stacked against the rest of you. Sounds like those of you that resigned in
protest made the right decision.
------
eldavido
My .02 on this:
You've already lost. The decision has been made, they're moving ahead, and
it's clear (a) you can't change their minds and (b) you aren't onboard with
it.
You should treat this as a learning experience about decision-making and
corporate politics.
Put aside the technical issues and take some time to consider the people
issues. Who is the decision-maker? What is his/her motivations? How are
decisions made in your organization - top-down, consensus, debate, face-to-
face, etc? What role did you _think_ you should have in making this decision,
and how did that differ from the role you actually had? How do you feel about
all of this?
Maybe you felt this was your decision to make, or should've been given more
weight/input on the decision. This is a relationship problem. You don't have
the role you want with the others.
Another view might be, you were consulted but ultimately you weren't the top
decision-maker in the org, the decision didn't go your way, and you need to
either (A) get onboard with it or (b) leave.
It's very reasonable to want out at times like this. Don't do anything rash,
but if you can't get onboard with this decision and really do object to it,
leaving this organization might be your best bet.
It's important to realize, when you aren't the head person, there are some
things that aren't going to go your way. You can argue and fight and debate,
but ultimately, a decision has to be made, and it might not be the one you
want, but you have to either tow the line, or leave, doubly so as an
executive. As bad as this situation is, it's way worse to have a bunch of
people who can't agree, and decisions not getting made, than MADE decisions
that don't go your way.
If you truly have ethical or legal issues, you should get out. You're young
and will move on to something else quickly. But I think this stuff (ICOs and
coins in general) is grayer than you might think. There's a lot of gray
between 100% upright business practices and fraud, and you're somewhere in the
middle.
~~~
rmah
Given the OP's description of the situation, I strongly agree with eldavido.
Both his assessment that the time to convince them to step back is past, how
to think about the current situation, and how to handle subsequent events
seems spot on to me.
------
pbnjay
I would collect a list of every ICO fraud story in the press, and just ask if
your board wants to be added to the list (whether officially or in the social
zeitgeist).
I would also ask the board how many examples they can find of companies who
did an ICO, and were later successful.
Also, I'd be looking for a new job... Even if they listen now, it doesn't
sound like good leadership.
Edit to add: Your equity is only worth something if the ICO works. If there's
no ICO and you still can't find investors, your equity is also worth nothing.
I wouldn't even consider it...
------
gwbas1c
If you don't believe in the technology that you're developing; run. A company
should never develop technology against the better judgement of its CTO.
That being said: Using things like blockchain to represent stock ownership;
and using crowdfunding, are great ideas. They just don't replace the fact that
your company needs a viable business plan, paying customers, and actual
investment.
Things like an ICO are like the old story from the 1990s about a lumber
company changing its name to "lumbar.com" because there were plenty of fools
trying to invest in anything related to the internet.
So, even though this is new technology, how is it relevant for your business?
Crowdfunding is great for funding artists, and great for swindling unsavy
suckers. Blockchain technology is still too primitive to represent ownership
for a run-of-the-mill company; even for a run-of-the-mill "tech" company. Why?
Because the tech of blockchain will be too much of a distraction from building
your real business.
Anyway, when I read your details, I see a startup that's not going anywhere,
and is considering an ICO out of desperation. It's probably time to assess if
your company is viable or not.
If you're going to leave, don't try to be too diplomatic. Be frank with your
board, "I am leaving because I do not believe that our company is viable. An
ICO is a distraction from finding a viable business model and savvy investors.
Blockchain / ICO will be a useful technology in the future, but at this time
it's too immature and will be a distraction from building our business and
product. I recommend that you concentrate on the shortcomings of the business
and its product."
------
tokencomments
I'm surprised there isn't a single person here advising you to stay and figure
out something that the token can be used for in your app. This is exactly the
type of software and product design decision that a CTO should be doing, and
you might even be proud of the result if you come up with a good idea, not to
mention the potential financial benefits. Maybe it's a little flaky, but it's
not fraud if you tell everyone what the token is and what it's used for
beforehand.
------
Obi_Juan_Kenobi
Most ICOs are deeply unethical in the sense that they exist only to circumvent
traditional funding regulations, and not because they actually utilize cypto-
tokens for their business. If you feel that this describes the plan, I would
absolutely back out. It may not currently be illegal, but chances are it will
be. It certainly does not reflect well on the business.
~~~
CryptoPunk
>>Most ICOs are deeply unethical in the sense that they exist only to
circumvent traditional funding regulations
Care to explain what makes this unethical? What if you think these regulations
are unethical?
~~~
ThrustVectoring
Then work to reform the regulations. There's a perfectly consistent position
in thinking that the circumvention of unethical rules is itself unethical.
~~~
CryptoPunk
What if there is a law against homosexual intercourse? Should people be
expected to refrain from participating in it until they can convince enough
people in their country to change the law?
If you need to start adding a bunch of qualifications to this principle of
illegality being unethical, meaning that if you can't apply it consistently,
then it's probably not well founded.
------
paulsutter
Life is too short to waste on other people’s shifty ideas. The investors have
a portfolio, so they think a 1 in 10 chance of a quick 100x is a great idea.
But you’re the one who has to build it and live it every day.
Decide where you draw the line, and tell them. Don’t try too hard to fight the
idea or persuade them, just make your case calmly and if their decision is
over your line, walk away. And wish them well as you walk away, no reason to
burn bridges.
------
danieka
If this is fraudulent or not is of course very, very important. But from
reading your comment I feel there are some weird trust dynamics at play here.
My view is that for a company to work you need to have people working in the
same direction with a large amount of trust. That means that if you are a
specialist in your are I will trust your judgement. I need not understand how
you came to that decision. If I do not trust you to make decisions in your
area or if you are not aligned with the goals of the company I would find
someone else for your role. That's how I think trust should work.
That also means that if my judgement in my area of expertise is not trusted I
will quickly start looking for something else to do. "If you don't trust me to
do what I'm good at I'll go somewhere else or do something else".
If I were in your shoes I would not feel trusted anymore and look for
something else. You also mentioned that all your shares are vested. I'm more
used to schemes where you shares vest over time e.g. you receive 33% of your
shares per year worked so you will own all your shares after three years. If
this is how your vesting works consequences for leaving should not be that
bad.
However if none of the shares have vested you should thread carefully. Having
been part of a similar situation with vested shares and leaving I know there
are compromises to be made. All parts have a lot to earn from an amicable deal
that let's you and the company part ways without any bad blood.
------
downandout
ICOs are only fraudulent if you make them so. We don't know if you're based in
the US either, which matters quite a bit since even the most well-intentioned
ICOs constitute the sale of unregistered securities under US law. If you are,
and since they're going ahead with it anyway, you might take a look at the
SAFT Project [1], which is a legal framework for ICOs in the US created by the
Cooley law firm.
In short, leave if you believe they are doing something illegal, and then sue
them for creating a situation where you had no choice but to leave your job.
But not all ICOs are, by default, illegal.
[1] [https://saftproject.com/](https://saftproject.com/)
------
dmitrygr
Ah, the age-old question on the morality of taking money from suckers.
Basically, as always, two options:
1\. be moral, walk away, maybe talk, get no money
2\. stay, make lots of money, wipe tears away with hundred dollar bills
------
saluki
Sounds like they are going to go with an ICO, it sounds like they think that
is the only choice, so it's most likely happening with or without you.
I'm not sure I would rock the boat since you still care about your equity.
I would spend your time trying to make the app better, let someone else handle
the ICO to bring in funding to get you to your vesting mark.
If you don't feel the ICO is a good idea or is potentially fraud, just don't
participate in setting it up, keep your name out of it. I'm sure they will use
a service or outside experts to handle it.
It will bring in funding to get you to your vesting date which sounds
important to you.
You're in your 20s so this isn't your last rodeo, ride this one out, see what
happens, use your knowledge and experience toward the next one.
Good luck riding it out.
------
pwaai
I would rephrase the question as the following:
My company plans on partaking in a legally grey area with a real potential for
liability down the road, do I want my name associated and put my neck out for
something I don't believe in?
I think you know the answer already.
------
dboreham
Run!
But first go get a good lawyer.
I'm guessing there is a playbook for "fundamental disagreement among
execs/founders in a startup" and a chapter in said playbook for "CEO doing
questionably ethical stuff".
------
thrillgore
You're on the right path, drafting a well rationed argument as to why its not
a good idea. If they decide to move forward, you should quit.
I'd seek good legal council regardless of what happens.
------
rajacombinator
I think ethics are somewhat overrated in this situation. But more importantly
it sounds like your app/whatever is dead in the water. If it’s not good enough
to convince people to invest more - and investing just to burn money on
marketing sounds like a terrible idea - then it’s not going to survive. I mean
let’s be honest if you have rich Middle Eastern contacts and they won’t put
money in, it’s a dog. Just cut loose and don’t waste more time on it.
------
sudouser
"No matter how much you try, you can’t stop people from sticking beans up
their nose."
[https://www.uie.com/brainsparks/2011/07/08/beans-and-
noses/](https://www.uie.com/brainsparks/2011/07/08/beans-and-noses/)
------
zebnyc
Are you sure your company is not planning to use this as a utility token.
Several companies ICO with this promise. For example Binance (a crypto-
exchange) introduced BNB tokens. You can pay with Bitcoin but if you pay for
your trades with BNB tokens then your trades cost 50%.
~~~
AlexCoventry
I recently heard of a utility token being scrutinized by the SEC. You need to
make sure that the token's price is in line with the utility's economic value.
If investors drive the price up to a point where it doesn't make economic
sense to buy the token for its use value, the SEC's position is that the Howey
test applies.
Not a lawyer, not legal advice, etc. Just heard this on the grapevine, could
be false. (But I find it very plausible.)
------
anononpurpose
I left the thread alone, hoping to see some answers in a few hours, yet I had
no idea it would explode like this. Thank you everyone, your support has no
match around my proximity.
I read all 92 (and increasing) comments. There are some duplicate concerns,
questions, suggestions etc. I want to be as transparent as I can to leave a
useful record for people who will be in similar position as me. Below is my
attempt to do so.
* Many people commented or touched on the topic of my role as CTO. Things I did can be summarized as these: building the proof of concept (vanilla Java for Android) before the very first seed; constantly be in dialogue with investors and the other co-founder (CEO); gathering all the dev team including the designers; managing outsourced development; having code contribution on 10% of server side code (especially mission critical parts such as auth and soft real time systems); %50 code contribution on Android (Kotlin, Java, RN hybrid); %50 code contribution on iOS (Swift, RN hybrid) including migrations to latest Swift versions; deciding frameworks, platforms, SaaS components; literally scripting all the dev-ops; building small demos for investors to test ideas; hacking all day when the dev team is able to self organize. Despite all the hardships, I must admit it was the most amazing playground I could ever hope for on this age. I have a BS degree on Computer Engineering if anyone wonders.
* Some people expressed their concerns about my mental and physical health. I can say I failed almost on all of those. My cigarette consumption skyrocketed. I smoked weed almost on a weekly (sometimes daily) basis. Having no time to cook, I ordered take away food a lot (it hurts to eat outside financially). I stopped doing sports last year. Socially, everything is much more OK. I have a really supportive life partner who I never disappointed. I didn't lose a friend without my own consent. My family is worried but also proud with all their best wishes and support felt here.
* I understand some people's suspicions on me having a bias towards fraudulent ICOs. Let me explain our situation a little more, you can decide for yourself. First of all, we can still gather investment without the ICO, just not enough for a meaningful (or hasty) boost. It has its consequences though like hibernating for a while, losing the original dev team (they are already informed by me btw) for cheaper labor, figuring out how to deal with ancient local law etc. It will almost feel like a new startup. Some people may therefore think "the project is dead" and that is true if looked from the inside. The sad thing is we finally built the real thing which our users really love. Ad revenue interpolations shows hope.
I have some other reasons (technical and observable) to think that our attempt
would be fraudulent.
Firstly, there has never been such a plan, not even a bite-sized bit of it.
The ICO is definitely an idea emerged as a reaction, a reflex. The startup
scene here is visibly shifting towards blockchain tech, that is a fact. But
issuing a token in our app feels like watching Pinterest issue its own coin
for people to spend on pinning some content. In the end, all the brainstorm in
the meeting can be summarized as "placing a button to spend/receive the token
inside the app for some arbitrary reason which we can figure out later" in
terms of UX. It's a feature without a problem to solve.
The next thing is, all the other B2B solutions we can pivot to are quite
cheaper, easier to build and equally doable without a blockchain. No business
has ever demanded from us an immutable, distributed database with fail
recovery. We are repeatedly told that a dev-friendly API is more sell-able
than bleeding edge cool technology (lesson of my life).
About the shady stuff: If the value of our token drops after the initial
offering, the ones who are gonna get hurt by it are mainly the early adopters
who would all be selected from angels or ventures. We only plan for a private,
invite only ICO to benefit from network effects among some rich people. It is
even spoken out loud that, and I'm quoting, "all we need is some well designed
PDF with our successes (there are some after all) and vision highlighted, some
kind of white paper as the jargon tells". The excuse has been debated as the
token will be traded publicly despite the private distribution, and will
always be promoted within the app. So the existing user base will be harvested
to create the hype, investor money will be grabbed via private offering when
shown enough hype is there, the market will do the rest. Almost all gathered
liquidity will be converted to fiat to buy time to figure out a viable
business plan. If the bought time is not enough, the crypto world will be
blamed, all will be well. It really sounds like an IPO without the risk and
responsibilities coming after that.
* The million dollar reality is not all ICOs are against law. This is completely true and applies in our case. We have good legal advice and will definitely get away with all of our actions. Regardless of the future incidents, nobody is going to jail or even paying fines for anything. Nonetheless, as stated by some commenters, it still may create some issues outside if we (founders, investors, the board, dunno) plan to travel and do business abroad. I didn't know that, thank you so much for the intel.
* Some boring facts and misconceptions: There is no us vs them culture between the founders and the investors. There is actually only a little politics between people, and mainly because of age differences. What drives the pursue is mostly misinformation about blockchain news, lack of technical knowledge and shareholders' being able to carelessly act due to having the safety net of financial resources. It is pure luck or lack of it that I am the only one who is capable of navigating through the echo chamber in our board, where right now words like "crypto is the next big thing" is resonating among people who have no idea what even a software protocol mean.
* Completely off-topic, or maybe not, nonetheless I want to make games some day.
Thanks again everyone. It's been a pleasure to read you all.
~~~
xordon
> feels like watching Pinterest issue its own coin for people to spend on
> pinning some content.
I think this actually sounds interesting, if it cost a little to pin something
but it also means that content creators get a little bit of $$ just for
creating content that people pin. Of course nothing about this requires a
blockchain or a new coin, but it could be fun!
------
nartz
ICOs are not necessarily fraud - are they outlawed in your country? Do you
simply need to register them properly with any countries you decide to release
your app in?
------
anfilt
Run as fast you can. If they don't value what you say, and it may put you in a
legal world of hurt it's time to jettison.
------
cvaidya1986
Trust your gut
------
aceon48
Make sure you have some stock or coins and enjoy the nice pop and free money
you get....
~~~
anononpurpose
I have $30 of DOGE. :)
------
crispytx
Go on, take the money and run.
------
perseusprime11
Hopefully you are not working at Facebook. I think you should start looking
for other jobs. Last I saw, there are 72 different ICOs on coinstats. There is
not an inch progress from any adoption towards ICOs. Don’t get rippled!
------
DyslexicAtheist
watch the movie Office Space and do what Milton did.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Three Women Blinded by Unproven Stem Cell Treatments - daegloe
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/15/520118310/3-women-blinded-by-unproven-stem-cell-treatments
======
aresant
The word "treatment" in the headline made me think that this was some kind of
formal study.
But in reality this is literally some Florida crank lab selling a shitty
third-party procedure that takes adult stem sells derived from fat tissue, and
despite the fact that the "safety and effectiveness of this procedure is
unknown, all three patients received injections in both eyes."!!!
To be clear: this was not a test, this was not a study, this was literally
three old ladies being sold on a completely unproven "stem cell" procedure by
a Florida for-profit clinic.
And apparently there are 100s of these clinics being run all over America with
essentially no evidence / clinical trials / etc behind their treatments:
[http://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2016/09/05/49137294...](http://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2016/09/05/491372940/researchers-question-safety-value-of-untested-stem-
cell-treatments)
I remain stunned at the things that are heavily regulated in America vs not.
~~~
ptero
As a personal data point: about 15 years ago a close relative of mine (in his
90s) was going blind (I think from MD, but not 100% sure) with no cure, at
least at the time. He was fully self sufficient and an avid reader his whole
life and knew that in 6 months his walks with grandkids, reading and in
general life as he knew it would be over. He died of an acute infection (or
virus) before he went blind, but I am sure that given an option with outcomes
of death at 50% and keeping vision at 50% he would take it (I would, too).
Regulating non-approved medical treatments out of existence might look
appealing, but IMO we need to allow informed, rational people to choose
unapproved treatments where no approved one exists. Much better to have full
disclosure and informed consent (FDA would not approve a treatment with 50%
death/health outcome, but some people would gladly take it). My 2c.
~~~
hannob
> but I am sure that given an option with outcomes of death at 50% and keeping
> vision at 50% he would take it (I would, too).
Sure. But this has nothing to do with the scenario of an unproven stem cell
therapy. There the chances are 99,99999% vs. 0.00001%.
> Regulating non-approved medical treatments out of existence might look
> appealing, but IMO we need to allow informed, rational people to choose
> unapproved treatments where no approved one exists.
This is a really bad idea, and your comment ideally shows why that's the case.
You're selling people the idea that they have something like a 50/50 chance.
But that's a complete illusion. Even 10/90 is an illusion. The chances of a
completely unproven therapy to do any good are practically zero.
It's different if you have early stage interventions that have some weak
evidence behind them. But there are already mechanisms to cover that. The
right thing to handle that is to add people to a study.
~~~
stagbeetle
> _Sure. But this has nothing to do with the scenario of an unproven stem cell
> therapy. There the chances are 99,99999% vs. 0.00001%._
> _This is a really bad idea, and your comment ideally shows why that 's the
> case. You're selling people the idea that they have something like a 50/50
> chance. But that's a complete illusion. Even 10/90 is an illusion. The
> chances of a completely unproven therapy to do any good are practically
> zero._
The 50/50 is for sake of practicality, it's not the main point.
The point is some people would take unproven treatments if it meant they had
_any_ chance to improve their quality of life. See: The man who's having his
head transplanted.
I've been in this situation before where all approved methods had failed me. I
was extremely desperate to find something that would help, so I was vulnerable
to con men (and they made a killing off me from "homeopathic remedies"), but
when I settled down with a clear and rational head, I decided that I would be
worse off if I continued living in my pathetic state.
So, I did my due diligence and interviewed every treatment that looked
promising (after doing research on my disease). Even though they were all "out
there" I found one I was confident in and signed up.
There was no guarantee I was going to be better, only that there'd be a $60k
hole in my pocket. To make a long story short, it improved my condition to a
manageable state and I'm very happy with the results.
I've never been a proponent of restriction, only proper education. If someone
is properly educated on the possible harms and how to avoid them, then why
shouldn't they be allowed to take a course they believe would benefit them
(without hurting anyone else)?
The problem that's being discussed here, though, is that the clinic had a
power imbalance (partly due to lack of proper education on the subject) and
preyed against these three women. Perhaps if they were informed properly (due
to regulation on full disclosure) they might have been better off.
~~~
sdenton4
In your view, though, blame will always lie elsewhere. It's either with the
uneducated blind women, or, if you're a generous soul, the society that failed
to properly educate them.
Somehow the back alley quack with the completely unrested remedy evades all
blame for their actions.
Quackery has a supply side and a demand side. The supply side is easier to
deal with. It's a smaller target. Furthermore, it's in the interest of the
quack to produce misinformation that your education programs will be in
competition with.
~~~
stagbeetle
> _In your view, though, blame will always lie elsewhere._
This is contrary to what I said, but I wasn't clear. Let me elaborate:
> _Perhaps if they were informed properly (due to regulation on full
> disclosure) they might have been better off._
What statements the clinic puts out _should_ be regulated, just like
supplements. You are not allowed to say some things, but required to say other
things.
> _It 's either with the uneducated blind women, or, if you're a generous
> soul, the society that failed to properly educate them._
The blind women is _partly_ to blame (though dependent on her ability to
research -- an 90 y/o alzheimer's patient is much much much less to blame than
a 25 y/o office worker) for being taken advantage of. The clinic, however,
holds the majority of the blame for practicing deceptive procedures and
misinforming (if they indeed had misinformed, I only skimmed the article).
> _Quackery has a supply side and a demand side. The supply side is easier to
> deal with. It 's a smaller target._
This is true, but it does not bring about the best outcomes. Proper medical
procedures (as accepted and enforced by regulatory agencies) are most of the
time years behind in implementing new and better techniques (or not
incentivized to, see: europe vs. american models of health treatment).
You hurt: the people to whom accepted practices do not offer relief, the
research of "unethical" procedures that could otherwise save lives if there
was no stigma (again, see: head transplant), and people's freedom of choice.
------
kobeya
Somebody has to be first to get a treatment. You don't really know whether it
will work until you try it. Also mentioned in the article are the cases where
treatments worked as they were supposed to or better.
The headline is a bit misleading because the 3 ladies in question were already
going blind. The treatment was supposed to reverse the disease but failed. You
could write the same headline about other treatments that are considered safe
enough to try: "3 patients killed by chemotherapy treatments that failed to
eliminate their cancer."
~~~
simonh
I don't trust a journalist to evaluate whether this treatment was valid or
not. I have more trust in the several stem cell therapy experts who wrote
detailed technical takedowns of the failed treatment and contrasted it with a
much better one.
~~~
csydas
Are you referring to another instance where this happened or to something in
the article where you felt that the journalist reporting was making an
assertion?
I cannot identify any statement or section within the article where the
journalist themselves makes a claim or assertion as to the validity of the
treatment, but instead just numerous citations and reports from other agencies
and persons who are qualified to comment on it.
Can you please clarify what you are discussing?
------
ipsum2
This was also covered by BBC, and had a few more details.
[http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04w86gz](http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04w86gz)
Off the top of my head:
\- One of the researchers had his medical license revoked
\- Some patients paid up to $20,000 for the treatment.
\- Very few, if any, patients had any improvement. Many had decreased eyesight
after the treatment.
------
timthelion
Anyone else notice that they were injected in BOTH EYES at once. That is
totally non-standard for non-proven eye therapies. Even many run of the mill
treatments treat one eye first to make sure there isn't some kind of bad
reaction.
------
RangerScience
Is there any indication that their resulting blindess was the result of the
stem cells, and not as a result of the delivery mechanism?
------
bobbles
I know its not good news, but it is worth mentioning that the treatment was
for an illness which causes blindness, and was injected _into_ their eyes.
It's not like some unrelated treatment was used and caused them to go blind.
~~~
senectus1
Skim read it and it looks like it was a terribly incompetent attempt. They
used STEM cells derived from a different source as to the original claims
source, it was to treat a different condition and to top that off the original
claim that they based their therapy on was very dubious...
These women need to sue for a quackery and shut them down.
------
phkahler
>> Each woman got cells injected into both eyes.
Gross incompetence. Why would you ever do both at the same time? Had they done
one first, these people would at least have sight in one eye and know not to
mess with it.
------
jacquesm
I read about this earlier today in some regular news publication. It seems the
word 'treatment' is not applicable here.
The bad thing is that news items like this will likely cause some damage to
the field of stem cell treatments and related research.
------
thedailymail
BBC Worldwide radio has a 30-minute investigation into a different clinic,
which has also been damaging peoples' vision by injecting "stem cells" into
their eyes as part of a "clinical study" which they have to pay $20K to join.
No malpractice insurance and one of the two founders had previously
surrendered his medical license.
For me, this is where the arguments based on the idea that everyone should be
free to decide for themselves and take responsibility for their own decisions
really falls apart. A market that is unregulated w.r.t adventurism is a market
that is unprotected against fraud.
[http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04w86gz](http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04w86gz)
------
mrfusion
I actually see this as a case of over regulation. I think if it were easier to
get legitimate experimental treatments (with some sensible regulation) these
kind of shops wouldn't exist and these women wouldn't have resorted to this.
It's the same concept as the argument for safe and legal abortions.
~~~
maxxxxx
How would this sensible regulation look like?
------
amelius
I just hope the public will not interpret this news as "stem cells = snake
oil".
~~~
scott_s
I have the opposite fear. Because there is enormous potential in treatments
from stem cells, I fear more quacks will exploit this potential in pushing
scam, for-pay treatments using the thin veneer of stem cells to lure people
in. For more, see [http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/alzheimers-
and-...](http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/alzheimers-and-stem-
cells/) and [http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/more-stem-
cell-...](http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/more-stem-cell-
quackery/)
------
BrailleHunting
This is what happens with a perverse, for-profit medical-industrial complex:
snake oil.
Also worth mentioning is the fake "emergency rooms" and "urgent care" fly-by-
night shops which have sprung up on the side of roads in much of the Southern
US. People will inevitably die because of the confusion and misrepresentation
caused by these shoddy scammers.
~~~
lawless123
> "emergency rooms" and "urgent care" fly-by-night shops which have sprung up
> on the side of roads in much of the Southern US.
What are these?
~~~
djsumdog
I too am curious about this. I can't find anything on "fake emergency rooms."
I wonder if he's talking about those homeless health clinics on wheels. I
always thought that they were staffed by volunteer or non-profit funded
Doctors, Nurse Practitioners, etc.
~~~
shiftpgdn
There are probably 2-3 of them in any major affluent suburb in the south. They
are typically built into a strip center or on a pad site near one (because of
the cheap land.) Most of them are emergency rooms by the letter of the law
only meaning they don't have an operating theater, mri/ct machines, huge
amounts of trained staff. They typically have a few stabilization tools and a
nurse practitioner on staff.
Anecdotally I was sent to one by my primary care doctor because she thought I
was having a heart attack as a result of month long strep/sinus infection.
They gave me a bag of saline and charged me $1000 (insurance ER rate) for the
privilege. I think these places exist only to bilk parents with crying
children in the middle of the night and people who don't know any better.
------
Pica_soO
What happened to the woman who tried those experimental telomere prolonging
treatment?
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Why I Didn't Apply to Y Combinator - bendrucker
https://medium.com/on-startups/ebb45a310757
======
intelliot
Reminds me of something I learned at a Startup School:
"Jack Dorsey & Ben Silberman are successful bc they don't care about the
outside world...don't care about press." \- @RonConway
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Falsely implicated Boston bombing student found dead - coopdog
http://www.theage.com.au/world/body-identified-as-student-falsely-implicated-in-boston-bombing-20130426-2ii9k.html
======
cleverjake
See <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5610833>
------
itsmequinn
Kind of misleading headline since he was missing(and possibly dead) since
before the bombings.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Bolt launches an Amazon-like checkout experience for the rest of online retail - Sujan
https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/23/bolt-launches-an-amazon-like-checkout-experience-for-the-rest-of-online-retail/
======
namelost
> It does things like track where the mouse is moving on the page, whether
> someone is copying and pasting information into the fields, whether they’re
> making typos, how fast they’re typing, and many other factors. By analyzing
> customer behavioral patterns, Bolt says it has a better shot at stopping
> fraud than just asking for the billing address.
Smells like bullshit, how is any of this meant to distinguish a mildly
sophisticated fraudster from browser autofill?
~~~
rbres
CEO of Bolt here. Browser autofill is a very detectable pattern, amongst
hundreds of other patterns that all become elements of a broader fraud model.
This broader fraud model doesn't only incorporate behavioral features, but
literally hundreds of other features around order details, personal details,
shipping info.
May smell like BS (a lot of companies in this space are full of BS). But, we
spent 3 years building a world-class data ingestion & ML engine which we'll
describe more in future blog posts. And our case studies
([https://bolt.com/case-studies](https://bolt.com/case-studies)) with more to
come demonstrate the type of results we're able to achieve.
~~~
flukus
How do you handle browsers with javascript turned off? This invasion of
privacy is exactly why it's turned off.
~~~
jjeaff
Why would they try to cater to the .001% that turn off javascript?
~~~
flukus
Because their tracking of mouse movements and timings will get them on the
list of any self respecting tracking blocker. Then the basic html version will
be necessary for a much bigger audience.
------
mgkimsal
What's interesting to me is having an 'authority' in this space that people
might trust. I can't tell you how much pain it was to work on some one-off
ecommerce projects and have clients want to customize every stupid damn little
thing. Arguing about font size, form fields, making stupid stuff required,
etc. In _all_ cases I kept saying "let's do the basic stuff now, then we'll
have a baseline. If we want to start requiring those 2 extra fields instead of
them being optional, we can see what effect it has on the checkout/abandon
process". No one wanted to believe me that this was a valid approach; having a
full service that costs $ might motivate people to listen to the authority a
bit more.
This is a space I'd considered diving in to more, and am interested to see
someone's going whole hog here. I'd looked at some 'fraud protection'
services, but it didn't seem you'd be able to do much with them without having
more data around the transaction (which was a lot of custom work and then some
guesswork/testing around the process).
Good luck rbres!
~~~
rbres
Thanks mgkimsal -- could not agree with you more re: both checkout and fraud!
We're taking a strong stand against endless customization. While we'll have
some styling options absolutely, we're pretty insistent in best-standards and
letting the data speak.
Bolt is for people who want highest-performance decisions made for them.
Customers who want to nitpick will have to write their own checkouts and will,
for the most part, leave revenue on the table.
And the whole hog of data gives us a huge competitive advantage in manage
regards, as you mention.
------
CodeSheikh
Also, Amazon checkout experience on their mobile app is not fast or some of
the best in the market.
1) Add item to cart. 2) Click top-right cart icon to go to cart. 3) Click
"Proceed to checkout" button 4) Change shipping address/shipping days on this
page 4a) Click default shipping method 4b) Select the delivery options (One
day, 2 days etc) 4c) Press "Continue" 4c.i) Repeat above for each shipping
group 5) Press "Place your order"
I am very much confused what/how exactly are they trying to compete with
Amazon checkout experience? Have we reached a point where inserting/competing
with Amazon is de facto?
~~~
rbres
Agreed that Amazon is actually not the best at checkout, especially on mobile.
What we're referencing is the fact that Amazon is able to invest $100M's and
100s of engineers into optimizing the checkout experience. Others really
struggle. And, there are hundreds of things you can do to optimize checkout.
Here's one study with examples: [https://baymard.com/checkout-
usability](https://baymard.com/checkout-usability)
We do all those things. We invest the engineering resources to perfect
checkout so that you don't have to. Even our checkout today is not perfect,
but it's way better than the one's we replace. And will continue to improve
with every deploy.
"Amazon-like" can be a bit confusing. Really it appeals to our vision to help
every online business compete with Amazon by optimizing their payments flows.
And hopefully even create a superior-to-Amazon experience.
------
lobo_tuerto
Ongoing discussion:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16215092](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16215092)
------
nicodjimenez
Actually the checkout experience is a small factor in Amazon's success (in
online retailing). The main factors are 1) Big selection 2) Fast and
convenient delivery 3) Low prices. The checkout experience just a small subset
of point #2.
~~~
rbres
Right. There are a lot of elements of ecommerce success. Building a compelling
online storefront, for instance, is a big one (thus Shopify, Bigcommerce,
Magento, Demandware, WooCommerce, etc).
We're not here to solve everything around online commerce, at least not yet,
But, the payments stack (checkout, fraud, internationalization, etc) is really
difficult and results in substantial lost revenue. By helping convert 10%-50%
more orders, we help businesses grow faster. That's our very simple goal.
------
CodeSheikh
Their before and after graphic is not only misleading but does not provide any
useful information. What exactly are they trying to convey with greyed-out
form fields? More fields to less fields?
~~~
rbres
Not all press pieces are perfect. Admittedly, the before/after graphic is not
great. Go see real-world examples of checkout here and visit the sites:
[https://bolt.com/case-studies](https://bolt.com/case-studies)
Less fields, less time to complete checkout, 10%-50% higher completion rates
(some merchants seeing over 150% higher completion rates).
------
littleweep
This is a PR puff piece.
~~~
BlainR
But a good one at that.
------
himynameistimli
I think the value of a product like this would only be for first-time buyers
since repeat purchasing is straightforward.
I wonder how this would compare with just adding a PayPal payment button in
terms of drop off. I always zoom for the PayPal button when buying on a new
site that I'd rather not share info with.
~~~
rbres
First-time buyer value prop is strong. The more you convert/approve and the
better experience they have, the more they convert to repeat buyers. We're
also going to be working on very cool repeat-buy features.
PayPal is great for PayPal account holders, but complete ineffective for non-
PayPal account holders. So, it's pretty much useless for 95% of your traffic
(most notably "guest checkout").
~~~
tomnipotent
> So, it's pretty much useless for 95% of your traffic
This number sounds highly dubious (at least in the US). From my experience,
when PayPal is offered in addition to normal credit card payments it will
account for 15-25% of transactions.
------
jacknews
click "See a Demo" -> "A Bolt expert will be in touch in less than 1 business
hour."
WTF is this, can't I just see it in action? Maybe I'll just test-buy an
invicta watch or something.
~~~
rbres
Yep try it on Invicta. The full demo goes through our dashboard, analytics,
etc but testing checkout should give you a good overview.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Will not programming in my spare time hurt my career? - agracey
I am increasingly finding job postings requiring a github account or sample projects. I have an account but all of my projects are startups I'm helping and are private. (The one project that is public is easily some of the worst code I've ever written; it was thrown together for school in a couple hours)<p>How am I supposed to respond to these when the all the code I've written is proprietary. I code and design for a living but when I go home I prefer to do things other than code.<p>--edited due to HN losing part of the post
======
yolesaber
I think in your case it might help to spend a few weekends or so coding up
projects that you can put on your github / talk about during interviews. You
don't necessarily have to spend all your waking free-time attached to a
computer, but a little extra time here and there can add up to a bigger chance
of getting that interview and offer.
------
sn1de
When we get into this type of discusion in our interviews, what we are looking
for is not literally are you coding between the hours of 6:00 -11:00 pm. We're
trying to find out if are you passionate about software development. If you
already have a job where you have the freedom to occasionally explore, or even
better utilize, diverse and emerging technologies, then you don't really need
to do so 'after hours'. On the other hand, if you've been doing Visual Basic
for the last 12 years as your day job, we're going to want to see some
tangible indication that you've at least been kicking the tires on some other
technologies. If the hiring company literally requires hard evidence of
contributions to public repositories, then it probably isn't the place for you
(or me) and they are inevitably missing out on some great developers by
casting to narrow a net.
------
pikewood
If you prefer to go home and do other things than code, you may want to
reconsider joining a company where everyone probably feels the opposite way.
By making a github account a required field, they are pre-weeding out
individuals they feel do not fit into their culture. Make sure you are willing
to be that outsider if you try and work around that.
But, if you feel these companies are still a fit for you, I would try and get
references from the startups you've helped; have them vouch for you in lieu of
sample work.
------
southbaybob
agree with pikewood. if you are not already doing that on your own, you are
probably not someone who enjoys sitting in front of their computers 24 hours a
day. If a startup requires you to have an active github account, chances are
everyone their sits in front of their computers 48 hours a day.
------
nycs
take a couple days out to write something interesting for the sake of sharing
it, definitely. but in the long run, not programming in your spare time is
fine. no one wishes they had spent more time programming on their death bed.
go out, travel, fall in love, do stuff, etc etc
------
speeder
I am in the same situation as the poster.
Worse: I don't have open source projects, because I don't have time, I arrive
at home, cook my food, and hit the bed.
Wake up, bath, go to work.
And at weekends I go see family, SO, do things I cannot do on weekdays (buy
supplies, go to medic, go to bank, etc...)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Spreedly Pricing Change - timf
http://blog.spreedly.com/2009/11/12/improved-spreedly-pricing
======
bluebird
Spreedly seems great, as soon as they get PCI compliance they will be an even
better option.
~~~
ntalbott
It's in process - goal is to have certification by year's end. We know it's
important!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Is there a database of Hacker news posts that I can download? - rgovind
I want to download hacker news posts and support instant search on top of it. I saw that there was one such database before...but downloading is disabled now.<p>Do hacker news TOS even allow downloading and making a copy of the database?
======
xauronx
Why dont you use <http://www.hnsearch.com/>
I guess if you really want to you can use their API to download posts.
------
unholygoat
they're out there.. just a matter of convincing someone to give u a
copy...opendata/easily downloadable wise i high doubt it other than for
specific terms/posts/people
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Inside Walt Mossberg’s gadget museum - sohkamyung
https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/12/15779450/walt-mossberg-original-iphone-ibm-thinkpad-amazon-kindle-video
======
sohkamyung
I am so happy that Walt Mossberg still has the Creative Nomad II mp3 player
(to the right of the Pilot). I played a part in creating it. :-)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
How to permanently solve homelessness / a simple model - moereza
https://medium.com/@mohammadrezaghaemi15/how-to-permanently-solve-homelessness-a-simple-model-5938ee3f0cb8
======
sigmaprimus
Great idea, assuming the only cause of homelessness is lack of homes. I'm
pretty sure this was tried in 1950s in the form of housing projects, the
problem is the few bad tennants destroy thesee places for the majority. There
is also a "not in my back yard" mentality when it comes to the people already
living near where these buildings are purposed. Finally the poor and
underprivileged should never be looked at as and oportunity to make money or
exploit, even with the best intentions as this article suggests.
------
gus_massa
Do you have more detailed calculations? If the returns are so good, someone
else should have noticed.
A big chunk of the tenants will be nice, but …
What if someone refuses to pay? Or die? Or share the room with other 10
persons?
Have you included the cost of fixing the stuff, like the water tubes?
~~~
sigmaprimus
You are right, "If the returns are so good, someone else should have noticed."
There are lots of slum lords out there!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: What do you think of my e-commerce dashboard? - ansonparker
http://flic.kr/p/7V9yur
======
sfall
I really like the "New vs Return customers. Number of past orders. Time since
last order." section. It's a really nice way to see how well acquiring and
keeping customers, and how often those customers are going to return.
A great way to see a lot of information.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Saturn's hexagon in motion - awqrre
https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/4up9cw/saturns_hexagon_in_motion/
======
gus_massa
Nice. The original source is
[https://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/science/saturn/hexagon-in-
motion...](https://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/science/saturn/hexagon-in-motion/) Do
the reddit discussion have something especially interesting to add?
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Can you recommend books about Machine Learning for non-techies? - bkfh
I'm currently deep diving into ML. I'm not a techie and my intention is not to learn how to code actual ML algorithms but to apply them in a business context.<p>Are there any books you can recommend?<p>I was going through the "ML for dummies" book by IBM and was rather disappointed as it only scratched the very surface of ML and its impact on businesses.
======
grizzles
There's nothing really to learn. It sounds weird to say but anything you can
imagine a computer doing is possible.
For the business process you want to optimize/predict/classify/etc generally
you want to have a lot of data or the ability to generate it (eg. like
AlphaZero).
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Show HN: Arch Mac – pacman on macOS - lloeki
https://www.archmac.org
======
phren0logy
Looks interesting, but I'd love to see a bit more info on the landing page. Is
the idea that this would replace something like the homebrew package manager /
repos on MacOS?
~~~
lloeki
Precisely. It's definitely working well enough that I've been using it for a
while on all my machines. There are still quite a number of things to do† but
I wanted to get this out, and at some point I just had to pull the trigger
instead of endlessly postponing because of yet-another-thing.
I'll be polishing the landing page with more details for sure. What kind of
information do you think would be most useful on the landing page?
† more packages, proper onboarding, some cleanups, PGP repo+package signing...
~~~
timvdalen
I would say that a clear purpose (i.e. what is the problem that Arch Mac
solves) would go a long way on the landing page.
~~~
gabrielcsapo
If there is an open issue I can put some time into helping flesh that out.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
A simple webapp to get slack token with “client” scope access - andrewfromx
https://github.com/andrewarrow/easytokens
======
andrewfromx
this is running at utc24.org if anyone wants to try
[https://github.com/andrewarrow/ises](https://github.com/andrewarrow/ises) and
needs tokens
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
How to stop brain cancer–with rabies - vezycash
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/how-stop-brain-cancer-rabies
======
apathy
This (and dendritic cell vaccines, and inactivated poliovirus, and...) all can
be traced back to an observation that the only people with good outcomes from
glioblastoma were those with listeriosis in the past.
Steve Forman at City of Hope has reported some excellent results using CAR-T
cells in GBM
([http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1610497](http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1610497))
and Linda Liau at UCLA has seen good results combining checkpoint inhibitors
with dendritic cell vaccines
([https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/87059](https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/87059)).
The fundamental problem with aggressive brain cancers (the most commonly
diagnosed kind in adults, unfortunately) is that "excellent" means "the
patients survived an average of two years instead of one!"
It's nasty stuff. I work on acute leukemias, which aren't much better, but at
least we see some durable cures now and then.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Let's talk about buttons, like on a UI - swayvil
Buttons need identifying. A label or icon. To this end we have several devices.<p><pre><code> Verbose descriptive label.
pros : guides nooby 1%.
cons : clutters ui for nonnooby 99%.
Shortened descriptive label. Effects proportional to shortness.
pros : Helps noobs some. Conserves space some.
Cons : cryptic.
Icon
pros : conserves space. pretty.
cons : cryptic as a rule.
Tooltip text, the ui enhancer.
pros : provides explanations in cryptic situations.
cons : People don't give hovering a chance.
</code></pre>
Can you add to this?
======
lsiunsuex
A mixture of similarly styled versions of all of the above.
If your asking "how" to design something, you need to look at the medium it'll
be delivered to.
Apps don't do hovering tooltips. You can build tutorials to take the place of
that.
When space is confined, you might use an icon with a tooltip. When space is
plentiful, a verbose button is better. All of these items styled in the same
style gives cohesiveness to the UI.
When dealing with responsive designs such as websites, you may hide a verbose
button and replace it with an icon. A user will most likely not scale a
browser to see if its responsive, but a user may use a website on both a
desktop and a mobile device. Most users don't understand that a responsive
website is usually the same website with a little code to scale things. In
other words, to use a verbose button on a desktop version but an icon on a
mobile version; the user adapts because thats the interface / space
constraints they expect.
(2 cents)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Investing in an open mobile development platform - erikstarck
http://monty-says.blogspot.com/2010/02/investing-in-open-mobile-development.html
======
raganwald
I flagged this article because I think the headline "MySQL-Monty about the
importance of open in mobile & why Apple can not win" is over-editorializing.
I think it's fair to personally draw that conclusion from the article, but
that isn't the article's headline, nor is it what the author is really saying.
The author is talking about the importance of open vs. closed platforms, and
iPhone is _both_. Apple went out of their way to make what at the time was the
very best mobile browser available.
To me, the post is a marketing ploy for the author's latest investment. if I
was going to editorialize the headline, I might write "Why MySQL Monty is
investing in the cross-platform and open source company MoSync."
~~~
silvestrov
His argumentation is weak. He says _it [is] of outmost importance that the
platform that grows to be the dominant one for native applications is an open
one_
And why do he think this so important? Is it because _On the Internet it's
(somewhat) safe to say that the philosophy of open is winning_ or is it the
rhetorical question _do we want this to be an open world or a closed one
controlled by one company._
He never considers that a completely open platform will be very open to
trojans and other malware. There are so many (Windows) users that happily
download trojans from web sites, that it is no fun at all. A fully open
platform might not be the best for phones to most users. The optimal system
might be only be semi-open, where all apps are sandboxed and vetted by some
party.
Just like cars: the government make restrictions on the cars (e.g. requires
seat belts, ability to brake, strength when crashing) and can take cars off
the street if the government deems them unsuitable. The government has solid
institutions for this: Department of Transportation, NHTSA, etc.
Apple's vetting is far from perfect, but some kind of vetting is probably
required to avoid ending in the situation we would have if cars were not
vetted at all.
So, if we find Apple's vetting bad, then let's discuss how the vetting process
can be improved instead of throwing the baby out with the bath water.
(please fix the headline).
------
fierarul
No thanks, I don't need any more "open" products from Monty the same way MySQL
was so open he cried wolf for months when Oracle purchased Sun.
Speaking of open-source, MoSync seems to support: Android (1.5, not 2.0),
Moblin 2, Java ME, S60 and Windows Mobile. Out of these 3 are probably 100%
open-source (Android, S60, Moblin) while the rest of the bunch have nowhere
near the iPhone level of "lock-in". Where is the need for MoSync exactly ?
Not saying I might not use their SDK, I was thinking about
<http://phonegap.com/> not long ago (which is also open-source), but I don't
see why is he bragging about "open" so much, there is nothing revolutionary to
talk about.
~~~
towndrunk
Yea. I think Monty has lost some (maybe a lot) of credibility.
~~~
X-Istence
He has lost all of his credibility. When he kept crying about MySQL being sold
to Oracle after he sold it to Sun it was not just annoying but it looked
pathetic like he wanted to get his old company back now that it was going to
what I gather he once considered a competitor.
Monty's ranting in general is starting to get annoying and I hope that in the
near future he realises that nobody is listening to him and that maybe it is
time to call it quits.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Open Source Hospital or ER Systems - Inquisitiveone
Hi all,
Are there any open source systems for Hospitals or Emergency rooms or anything related to Health Care management?
please share if you know of anything like that. I was searching a bit but i thought let me also ask just in case
Thanks<p>Edit:
use case is for a smal ER in my town, might extend further if it would work well, it would be nice if the systems had the chance to connected between the town, but isolation is fine as well, tracking patients, numbers of patients
======
toomuchtodo
[https://www.open-emr.org/](https://www.open-emr.org/)
Previous HN thread you might find interesting:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16949974](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16949974)
[https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=exception_e](https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=exception_e)
is the admin of the project
~~~
Inquisitiveone
thanks for the info, the more of these the better :)
------
BjoernKW
HospitalRun: [https://hospitalrun.io/](https://hospitalrun.io/)
Built with the developing world in mind first its features (offline first) and
its user experience aren't limited to resource-constrained environments.
~~~
DoreenMichele
This is the one I have read a bit about. I don't know how it compares to other
systems, but it was designed to be robust and reliable under extremely
difficult circumstances, including being usable off-line. I was going to post
it if no one else had.
------
lainga
If you're looking for EMR software, there's OSCAR:
[https://oscar-emr.com/](https://oscar-emr.com/)
~~~
Inquisitiveone
thanks i will check it out, should you find anything else please feel free to
post :)!
------
Bucephalus355
OpenEMR. A lot of work is being done on modernizing even more the codebase.
LibSodium encryption, U2F support, GeoIP Blocking, Integrated WAF, all 8 (!)
HTTP Security Headers, etc. You can already deploy in a single click on AWS
and GCP.
I’m going to embed Postfix with Dovecot for extremely secure and encrypted
email notifications out of the box next week.
------
rmu09
GNU Health is a Free/Libre project for health practitioners, health
institutions and governments. It provides the functionality of Electronic
Medical Record (EMR), Hospital Management (HMIS) and Health Information System
(HIS).
[http://health.gnu.org](http://health.gnu.org)
------
jklein11
What is the use case?
~~~
Inquisitiveone
I added the edit, but what do you mean use case? did i answer it or is there
more to it? let me know, was just looking for something to modernize the work
as much as possible and switch away from excel or access that is used at the
moment, oh and also paper :)
~~~
jklein11
That is helpful but I have some more questions: \- Are you looking for a
system to maintain a clinical history for each patient that you see? In this
case, you would need an EHR system
\- Are you looking for some sort of practice management system to help with
scheduling, billing, registration, etc?
\- Does your ER need a Lab Information Management system?
\- Do you need software to manage bed utilization?
\- Do you need two or more of the systems described above? IS the ER a part of
another Health System that would want access to your data? You would likely
need an interface engine
\- What are the requirements around Open Source software? In some cases self-
hosting a healthcare solution becomes more costly than paying a vendor when it
comes to HIPPA compliance
Healthcare has a wide variety of software tools that can be used. What will is
the benefit you are hoping to bring to the business by implementing this open
source software?
~~~
Inquisitiveone
Great questions, 1\. yes would be great 2\. if possible 3\. there are not that
many cases to be honest thankfully, the place is not that big 4\. not really,
this is more of a local thing, i am not from US but imagine if there was a
City with people also living in the areas around the city,
sometimes we send doctors to those areas to check on the elderly or even kids,
so when i mentioned if the system could distribute in a way or be cloud
hosted, it would help with these patients
open source, it would be cheap and as a way of proof of concept, I cant say
that we are a 1st world country and the project is also a community effort
this is public health so there is no real need for money making, docs and
services are tax paid, but they still suffer from systems in place,
makes tracking patients and previous visits a pain, you dont know alergies or
similar things, you need to try and find the records if they have them,
sometimes its just on paper :)
hope this helps
~~~
jklein11
It sounds like HospitalRun would work for you, someone in another post gave a
link to it.
OpenHospital might be another option:
[https://sourceforge.net/projects/openhospital/](https://sourceforge.net/projects/openhospital/)
Also NOSHEMR looks interesting [https://noshemr.wordpress.com/live-
demonstration/](https://noshemr.wordpress.com/live-demonstration/)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Reasons Not to Become Famous (Or “A Few Lessons Learned Since 2007”) - rnernento
https://tim.blog/2020/02/02/reasons-to-not-become-famous/
======
siberianbear
That was quite interesting, and a bit scary. Especially the kidnapping scam at
the airport with the fake sign.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Meet Jack. Or, What The Government Could Do With All That Location Data - G5ANDY
https://www.aclu.org/meet-jack-or-what-government-could-do-all-location-data
======
cjoh
It's easy to imagine the kind of data government has, imagine its ability to
process that data, and easy to interpret that they will do it. But it's also
important to recognize that this is conjecture.
From my experience in government: they _nailed_ the user experience (check out
[http://dsbs.sba.gov](http://dsbs.sba.gov) for some awesome gov UI), but
really overestimated government's capacity to build intelligent technology
like this.
I know this will make me unpopular amongst this crowd, but The truth is, I'm
far more afraid of data like this getting into the wrong hands because it's
being stored improperly or insecurely, than I am of government being malicious
with it. Heck, I'm more afraid of my insurance adjuster than I am a malicious
cop.
~~~
tikhonj
Part of the issue with government is that you ultimately have much less
recourse against the government than against anyone else. This exacerbates the
potential damage the government could do with any given technology.
~~~
antimagic
I think I'd be happier with the technology if the first deployment was used
specifically to track police officers in an effort to weed out corrupt police.
Let the program run for say 10 years, enough time to make police aware of how
this sort of data can be _misused_ by making them the victims first. As a
bonus, weeding out corrupt cops will make the system safer (but not safe) for
ordinary citizens.
Still, it's completely crazy. These types of system are a direct threat to
democracy and need to be shut down. In fact it's worse than that. At some
point a telecom is going to realize that they could make a tidy profit by
selling location traffic data to third parties, and that sort of thing needs
to be prevented in law.
~~~
_mulder_
>At some point a telecom is going to realize that they could make a tidy
profit by selling location traffic data to third parties, and that sort of
thing needs to be prevented in law.
The year 1990 called and wants it's comment back!
~~~
antimagic
You're saying that telecoms are already selling the data? Or that there are
already laws preventing the sale of such data?
~~~
hnha
They sell it. See eg Vodafone and tomtom for a publicized example.
------
nswanberg
This article attempts to show what a local government could do, but does
anyone have access to the sort of location dataset that could give one an
intuition about how likely it would be that individuals would be singled out
using the data shown?
The article uses maps of Peoria, IL, so let's assume we're dealing with
Peoria. There appear to be roughly 115K people between 18-64 in its metro area
([http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+of+peoria+il...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+of+peoria+il+metro+area+demographics)),
and 11 traffic cops. ([http://www.peoriagov.org/peoria-police-
department/police-div...](http://www.peoriagov.org/peoria-police-
department/police-divisions-units/))
These cops appear to arrest 23 people per month for driving under the
influence, and hand out about 1750 other traffic citations (not linking
directly to the PDF to save their server but you can find it under crime
stats).
The article implies that there would be more traffic stops due to increased
DUI suspicion, and it certainly seems that it could happen, but given these
population, police, and police activity numbers, and given that the article
itself gives a false-positive example, how likely would that be? Is it
reasonable to think that these cops currently have a lighter load and have
time to be dispatched to investigate a potential DUI?
I am not suggesting that it is of no concern for the government to have
unfettered access to data, and I can imagine a vast number of possible
scenarios in which the data could be misused, but possibly we can better
quantify that concern.
~~~
Bluestrike2
You're assuming that individuals would have to be singled out for analysis in
the first place. They wouldn't. With enough computing power, it'd be trivial
to run this sort of analysis in near real-time for everyone. A few years down
the line, this is even less of a concern: increased power, improved analysis
tools, and greater efficiencies will all come together to empower just such a
system at costs manageable by many local governments (particularly if they
start working together to manage costs).
This means you've got a practical means of confidently predicting potential
crime. Even better, the same mechanisms that help you predict potential
criminal acts also help you close active cases more efficiently. That
inevitably results in significant boosts to police productivity.
So armed, you now get to deploy your existing resources more effectively.
Instead of parking a patrol car at a "pretty good spot" to nail violators for
a few hours, you'll reposition yourself continuously to the location offering
the greatest probability of an arrest/citation at that specific moment in
time. Instead of passively waiting for violators to happen across your
location, you're actively positioning yourself to nail them directly. The
specific individual doesn't matter.
But you won't be dispatching patrollers in the current manner. Since you'll
also be tracking your own patrol cars, you can correlate the two and dispatch
each car to the highest probability incident nearest to them where they're
likely to catch a potential perpetrator. By having everyone under effective
surveillance, for every minute of every day, each of your resources will
always be deployed in the most efficient manner possible.
Where it really gets wild is when you start to consider traffic enforcement
automation along with the push for local government drone coverage. Along with
the existing red light and speed cameras, you'll have mobile platforms capable
of filling in for any holes in your patrol car coverage while also benefitting
from the same efficiency gains described earlier. And they'll be gathering
additional data (movements, facial recognition, automatic number plate
recognition, etc.) to send back to base while they're doing it.
It won't be like The Machine from Person of Interest, but all things
considered, it'll be closer to it than anything else to date.
~~~
toadi
Well hopefully the google car comes available. No DUI anymore because you're
not driving the car.
If it's all automated there are no traffic violations anymore. So the system
won't be used for this.
I'm all for safe traffic!
Things liken an Arabic Revolution are not possible anymore.
------
rtpg
Meet Jack. Or what the government could do with all these planes
>Article showing how half of San Francisco gets bombed
This argument can only hold on water by having a complete lack of faith in the
rule of law.
The biggest issue I have with this is that this describes a massive ,
coordinated system to use all this location data in ways that are way outside
the legal framework in place by the initial court order from the FISA court.
Stuff that has come out of these leaks have ranged from banal (oh, we listen
to the German Chancelor's cell phone? What else is new) to absolutely damning
(forcing companies to hand over SSL keys). But even in the most damning cases,
all of these happened within the legal frameworks given to them (such as the
National Security Letters) and maybe some overzealous law enforcement agents.
The illegal incidents can be explained more by incidents outside of how things
are "supposed" to work (LOVEINT is probably not sanctioned by the NSA), and a
lack of strong implementation of the framework given by the courts.
The narrative has always seemed to be "check out how the NSA is going crazy
over here!". But the reality is "check out how all these politicians are
voting in these new laws allowing this to take place!"
From the leaks you can even see how the courts are constantly reeling things
in, the system is actually working. We hear about old NSA programs that got
shut down because of the FISA court's rulings. This is how rule of law works!
We vote laws, and people follow them.
To actually come to this, given all we've seen from how courts rule on this
issue in general, and the FISA court's rulings, this sort of data sharing
would absolutely definitely not be allowed to exist. No judge would agree to
this being allowed to be set in place, as it so obviously goes against 4th
ammendement _in such a program 's intent_.
Just because the data is at the NSA doesn't mean they can use it however they
want, just like how Google would run into some problems if it tried to sell
the contents of your e-mails to somebody.
This anger at the NSA should also be directed at the congressmen voting for
these laws of large scope in the first place. Hopefully we can get rid of NSLs
too. But the NSA is just doing the most it can with the tools we give it
(which is what we expect). And rule of law is actually working, we just have
some shitty laws.
~~~
ChuckMcM
Lots of people have picked up on your thesis statement : _This argument can
only hold on water by having a complete lack of faith in the rule of law._
We aren't talking about 'law' here, we're talking about 'people.' That gets
lost some times.
Someone with access to these tools might decide the shake down Jack with a bit
of blackmail. They might decide to sell union organizing 'alerts' to business.
These are not legal but there are many people who work in an organization with
these tools available who could justify abusing them.
Consider another hotbed subject which gets argued the other way all the time,
gun ownership.
Now we can all agree that someone owning a gun who follows all of the safety
precautions, and doesn't wave it about irresponsibly Etc is no threat to
society. And yet the argument is put forward that _the capability_ is the
threat and people other than the owner may exploit that capability (a thief
steals the gun, a spouse grabs it in a fit of rage, Etc.) and that it is
"better" to not allow the person to own a gun because the risk of that gun
falling into the wrong hands and doing something bad are non-zero enough.
This is the same argument we should make on surveillance technology, which is
that the potential for its abuse and damaging the lives of innocent civilians,
out weighs the 'benefit' the law enforcement agency gets from having it. There
are other ways for the agency to do its job, just as there are other ways for
our homeowner to protect their property, that don't require this capability.
~~~
rtpg
>Someone with access to these tools might decide the shake down Jack with a
bit of blackmail. They might decide to sell union organizing 'alerts' to
business. These are not legal but there are many people who work in an
organization with these tools available who could justify abusing them.
The situation described in the article would require coordinating a lot of
data together. I have a hard time seeing how individuals could do that
properly without the institution noticing (especially considering how "Big
Data" it is). It's not just cell data that you need, but also license plate
scans, court records, etc. These are all fairly independent things, unlikely
to be stored in the same place.
Individuals will try to exploit systems, and we should work hard to avoid
things like LOVEINT happening (which shouldn't be hard in itself, but given
that Snowden walked off with all those documents, the NSA doesn't seem very
skilled in secure storage of documents).
If institutions work hard enough to make sure they're following the rules on
document access, then it'll be harder for people to abuse, since each
individual block of data is useless in itself. It would be the information
equivalent of N keys to launch the nukes. Abuse would be much,much harder if
somebody sat down and chmod'd some folders properly (nobody should have access
to everything in any system). A plus side (for gov'ts at least), would be that
Snowden-class events would be a lot harder to pull off.
Institutions can be built to be a lot harder to corrupt.
~~~
exarch
>The situation described in the article would require coordinating a lot of
data together.
Do you think the federal government cares more about protecting your personal
data, or their own top secret data?
Edward Snowden was able to single-handedly pull together reams and reams of
data on a cornucopia of the most highly classified top secret projects of our
government. He wasn't noticed at all, except for the fact that he outed
himself.
Had Edward Snowden actually been a spy working for a foreign government, he
probably wouldn't have been caught at all, and would still be working for the
government.
>It's not just cell data that you need, but also license plate scans, court
records, etc. These are all fairly independent things, unlikely to be stored
in the same place.
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_fusion](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_fusion)
is the process of unifying disparate data sources in order to glean
information not readily apparent by looking at the sources individually. Guess
who is leading the charge in this budding field?
>Institutions can be built to be a lot harder to corrupt.
Once all this information is stored, its value is essentially incalculable.
Almost no expense at all will be too high for a foreign government or a
multinational corporation to pay for access to it - it is too profound a leg
up on Bob the competitor, Joe the union organizer, and Sally the investigative
reporter. The act of collecting and storing the information is, itself,
opening Pandora's box.
------
rayiner
I understand the importance of focusing on the government, but I think use of
this sort of data should be restricted for everyone, not just the government.
What happens when employers realize that you can filter out less desirable
employees by correlating the movements of their social groups and cross-
referencing it against credit history databases? We fear what the government
can do with the data, but as a practical matter its corporate America that's
more likely to actually screw over large numbers of people with this sort of
data.
~~~
john_b
This is what bothers me about most of America's large tech companies' recent
opposition to various NSA programs. They pioneered many of the techniques
(albeit independently...usually) yet now point their fingers at the
government.
------
inspectahdeck
Hey, that's not what the Palantir UI looks like!
------
neil_s
Am I the only one for whom the article had the opposite than intended effect?
I was expecting some real life horror story of a false positive or deliberate
framing, but instead I was given examples of how this data could be used
constructively to try and evaluate where there might be a high likelihood of
crime occurring, and trying to prevent it. In my eyes, using tax dollars to
prevent crime rather than punishing it a HUGE win!
~~~
aestra
There was a false positive in there. There was a "probable criminal activity"
that turned out to be a real estate agent.
~~~
msellout
Are we not willing to accept a certain number of false positives if the net
effect is good?
------
blah32497
This is fear mongering. You could have some person out in the field tailing
you and get the same info (maybe even more). You can also put up a camera and
tag people as potential DUIs based on how close to the middle of the lane they
are driving. So what?
What's important to ask is what can the government do with the data. And NSA
or not, what they are can do is limited by the law. No database changes that.
~~~
dwaltrip
It's not the same goddamn thing. The article describes programmatic policing.
THEY CAN APPLY THESE TECHNOLOGIES TO THE ENTIRE POPULATION AT ONCE AS THEY ARE
NO LONGER LIMITED BY NUMBER OF OFFICERS AVAILABLE.
This carries new, complex risks for society at large. How hard is that to
understand? Relying solely on unclear "policy" and "access controls" to
protect us from these risks is extremely foolish. Now, I'm not saying this is
happening now, or will happen tomorrow. But these thought exercises are very
useful and informative.
~~~
blah32497
You're not really explaining what's "foolish" or a "complex risk to
society"...
Why is it okay to do it to several thousand people (selected in some non-
systematic/statistical process more akin to voodoo than science), but not okay
to do to the whole population?
Shouldn't everyone be treated equal? Seems like the way we have it now, if you
get on some officials bad side you will get harassed by the TSA and maybe
audited (there aren't _that_ many tools at the disposal of the gov't to make
your life difficult) And most likely no one will notice or care.
Doesn't that illustrate a more fundamental problem with our laws? And
shouldn't we be addressing that?
------
rurounijones
For those thinking this is so far down the slippery slope as to be ridiculous:
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-
switch/wp/2013/12/10...](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-
switch/wp/2013/12/10/new-documents-show-how-the-nsa-infers-relationships-
based-on-mobile-location-data/)
------
vezzy-fnord
A related experiment: [http://www.zeit.de/datenschutz/malte-spitz-data-
retention/](http://www.zeit.de/datenschutz/malte-spitz-data-retention/)
~~~
nswanberg
Nice. I was looking for that yesterday for the Google Location history
discussion.
Digging through this site's javascript I found this comment: "Für diesen
Quellcode komme ich nicht in den Himmel."
~~~
schoen
In case you don't know German: "Orpnhfr bs guvf fbhepr pbqr, V'z abg tbvat gb
urnira." (ROT13 for fellow non-native German speakers who want to think about
the meaning for a moment.)
~~~
rrattoo
In case you don't have time to waste: "Because of this source code, I'm not
going to heaven." (English for fellow grownups.)
------
lanaius
Setting aside all of the other existing information, the crux of many of the
arguments in the article depend on the government knowing the use of
particular addresses. That's data most city/county/state governments already
have laws that they should know (for tax assessments, occupancy limits, health
inspections, census, etc.) and yet they frequently have incorrect or
incomplete information on this.
While pervasive tracking is indeed a problematic state, I still find it
humorous at how competent we truly believe the government to be in retaining
accuracy in all this data given how often our interactions with government and
private businesses revolve around them FIXING their data about us.
------
api
This indirectly makes a great point. While everyone's been talking about the
danger of a turn-key totalitarian state -- the danger of _intentional_
totalitarianism -- much less has been made of the danger of an unintentional
totalitarian state arising from overzealous use of these systems by law
enforcement. I think that's a much greater immediate risk.
Replace "DUI pattern detected" with "likely child predator." Just the
_insinuation_ that a person is a pedophile can destroy a person's life.
------
Aaronneyer
Maybe I'm just a huge data nerd, but this article made me really excited.
------
puppetmaster3
That is not how this task is done by programmers, here's a newsflash: We use
Bayes! A lot of it.
(ref:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network#Inference_and_...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network#Inference_and_learning)
)
Translated for 'non programmers: computers don't think the way we do, they
look at (big) data, there is _no causality_.
(ref: for example, if human brain can't diagnose disease, since we are limited
in thinking to causality, we use computers:
[http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/opre.46.4.491?...](http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/opre.46.4.491?journalCode=opre)
)
Please don't talk about how computers detect something in big data, if you
don't know some math, ex(' causal calculus')
Item to discuss: Getting pulled over and being told, we don't know why we
pulled you over, but there's a 85% chance you are non-compliant.
------
dredwerker
The police go to Jack's house and educate him on not drinking and driving and
give him a free taxi token.
------
at-fates-hands
This is why its important for people to get their respective states to start
writing laws which protect people's privacy and usurp the Federal Preemption
of states rights in regards to people's private information.
This is a great paper which addresses this in regards to environmental laws.
This kind of argument can also be made in protection of people's private
information. It's about restraining and balancing the federal laws with state
laws and not allowing the feds to overstep state laws.
[http://www.law.northwestern.edu/lawreview/v102/n2/649/LR102n...](http://www.law.northwestern.edu/lawreview/v102/n2/649/LR102n2Learner.pdf)
------
etanazir
Could? The government may know you better than you know yourself; and perhaps
the only reaction to be had upstairs is when you change a habit; i.e. quite
unexpectedly break the prediction model for your life.
------
aabalkan
I don't know why everyone is paranoid about unseen location data being
collected. They often blame proprietary software like iOS/Android collect
location data and send Apple/Google servers. That sort of transfer would be
evident by tracing traffic and there are tons of reverse engineers out there
intentionally keeping an eye on transferred packages that might contain
sensitive private data. That would be a huge breakthrough if it would exist
and be revealed.
~~~
eurleif
>That sort of transfer would be evident
It is evident:
[https://maps.google.com/locationhistory/](https://maps.google.com/locationhistory/)
Besides, the issue is also location data from cell tower triangulation. That
data is available to your cell carrier whenever you connect to their network.
------
diminoten
Setting aside morality for a moment, that's a pretty cool little system there.
What havoc would be wrought if such a system were public? Heh, the mind reels.
~~~
KrisAndrew
I would think a system like that being public would cause a great deal of
interpersonal problems until ways to circumvent the data collection were found
(even if it meant tearing GPS receivers out of mobile phones).
I remember reading a meta-analysis of lie detection and deception studies in
humans, and there was one social psychology experiment where the participants
were asked not to lie for the duration of the experiment. They couldn't even
use the tactic of "white lying."
Overwhelmingly the participants said it was extremely difficult not to lie and
when they couldn't lie, it ended up causing their stress levels to rise and
their relationships suffered. Lying, or much more fundamentally - concealing,
is a necessary process for maintaining social relationships. [You don't want
to tell Mary what you really think about her new dress, and in the same way,
you don't want to tell your boyfriend that you're throwing him a surprise
party, even if he asks you directly.] As technology becomes increasingly woven
into our social fabric, it's going to have to conform with our pre-established
patterns.
~~~
doctorshady
Trying to remove location tracking from a cell phone is essentially
impossible; they're capable of using a system called Assisted GPS which when
GPS isn't available, can use things like WiFi signals to help determine where
you are;
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assisted_GPS#Description](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assisted_GPS#Description)
Even if you were to build your own cell phone or dig out an old brickphone
without this capability (thanks to the FCC's efforts, basically no cell phone
made after 2005 is without it), you can still be triangulated by the network
with fair accuracy.
At this point, The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play.
~~~
aestra
Right, this was a requirement so if you dialed 911 the emergency responders
know where to find you even if you didn't know where you are. It is called
e911 or enhanced 911.
------
lstamour
Suddenly I'm not as sure I want a self-driving car.
Then again, if there are no tracking cookies, maybe they can't tell if I'm in
it? (Wishful thinking, I'm sure...)
Of course a self-driving car would defeat the need to catch someone after a
party perhaps, so bad example? :)
~~~
aestra
What exactly would a self driving car have to do with this? This is talking
about tracking by cell phone data and license plate, not car data. A self
driving car would be the same as a regular car, just with extra sensors, the
ones they have now are at least. Who is to say that it would have extra
tracking?
~~~
lstamour
Your car has a computer and needs to know both where it is precisely and if
the roads have changed since it was last there. This is always on and possibly
worse than a cellphone for tracking given how hard it would be to "throwaway".
------
shurcooL
Is Jack a celebrity? Why does anyone (other than a data mining algorithm) care
about him.
~~~
estebank
Is Bill Montgomery the cop performing the queries?
------
nl
Nice of the ACLU to spec how the NSA's software work and what it should look
like.
------
bazzargh
It feels like there's a game in here. The Sims meets Uplink.
~~~
rtpg
six degrees of sabotage
([http://dukope.com/play.php?g=six](http://dukope.com/play.php?g=six)), made
for a gaming hackathon, feels a bit like what this would be.
------
beardfu
Reminds me of the Big Brother pizza shop
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zh9fibMaEk](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zh9fibMaEk)
------
bane
Now imagine similar data in the hands of a private company,
"I see you like to go to a bar regularly, would you like to see this beer
advertisement?"
------
sharemywin
Couldn't google or apple build this?
------
tedunangst
So was Jack arrested or not?
~~~
2jgi7
You'll notice they prefer the term "interdicted" now. "Arrested" implies
rights.
~~~
KrisAndrew
They stopped his vehicle and summoned him an Uber (charging him stewed prune
surge pricing).
------
wissler
Yet another example of how the government can use this information to
"discredit radicalizers":
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/26/nsa-porn-
muslims_n_...](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/26/nsa-porn-
muslims_n_4346128.html)
~~~
csandreasen
Stewart Baker, who was quoted extensively for that article, had some
interesting words regarding it[1]:
_When one of the authors, Ryan Grim, called me for comment, he said that
while Glenn Greenwald was transitioning to his new Omidyar-funded venture he
was temporarily publishing his Snowden leaks with HuffPo. So when he asked for
my take on the NSA story, pretty much the first words out of my mouth were,
“Why wouldn’t we consider doing to Islamic extremists what Glenn Greenwald
does routinely to Republicans?” The story quotes practically everything I said
to Grim except that remark, even though I returned to the point a couple of
times and emphasized that it summed up my view.
I don’t think HuffPo cut the quote because they ran out of electrons. The
article itself is so tediously long that I defy anyone to read every word in a
single go.
Nor because my remark was inaccurate. It turns out that Glenn Greenwald has
written an entire book devoted to exposing the contradiction between
Republicans’ ideology and their private lives. In Greenwald’s words, “While
the right wing endlessly exploits claims of moral superiority … virtually its
entire top leadership have lives characterized by the most decadent,
hedonistic, and morally unrestrained behavior imaginable …[including] a string
of shattered marriages, active out-of-wedlock sex lives, and highly
‘untraditional’ and ‘un-Christian’ personal lives [endless detail omitted].”
His book certainly makes the NSA memo sound restrained and cautious, but both
are motivated by the same idea.
Grim and Greenwald very likely cut the quote because it would have undermined
the narrative of the piece, which combines solicitude for the poor Islamists
whose sexual and financial hypocrisy might be exposed with outrage at the NSA
for even considering such a tactic. The quote would have made them look like,
well, hypocrites.
The incident makes me wonder what else Greenwald leaves out of his stories.
And why we should continue to trust snippets of documents selected by someone
who thinks that the difference between Islamist extremists and Republicans is
that one is an enemy that deserves no quarter and the other is sort of like
Martin Luther King, except for the part about wanting to kill us._
[1] [http://www.volokh.com/2013/11/27/understanding-
enemy/](http://www.volokh.com/2013/11/27/understanding-enemy/)
~~~
summerdown2
> “Why wouldn’t we consider doing to Islamic extremists what Glenn Greenwald
> does routinely to Republicans?”
I think this is disingenuous. Of course the US should do to extremists what
Glenn Greenwald does routinely to Republicans. I don't think anyone is saying
exposing hypocrites is a bad thing, and it's certainly good jounalistic
practice.
What people are upset about is the US spying on the whole internet to do it.
In addition, there's the slippery-slope argument that once this mechanism of
surveillance is in place, they'll use it to modify everyone's behaviour, not
just "the bad guys."
But it's hardly controversial that journalists reveal hypocrisy, is it?
~~~
csandreasen
Sorry, I wish I had seen your comment two days ago when you posted...
I don't think Mr. Barker's argument was based solely on whether or not the US
should be doing it, but also touched upon the journalistic standards behind
the reporting. As an analogy:
Headline: Hacker News commentors unfazed by NSA controversy
_Discussion repeatedly turned in favor of the NSA 's targeting of Islamic
extremists on Hacker News, a web forum frequented by many of the internet's
technical elite. Summerdown2, a respected contributor, even went so far as to
say that "of course the US should do to extremists what Glenn Greenwald does
routinely to Republicans." Though also mentioning vague concerns regarding NSA
surveillance, he stressed that "it's hardly controversial that journalists
reveal hypocrisy" and even went so far as to say that it was "certainly good
journalistic practice."_
You and I (and anyone else reading this thread) can easily look at the source
comments and tell that my hypothetical news blurb is complete bullshit and the
crux of your argument was left out entirely. So if the authors are willing to
selectively quote from their expert source to avoid having their argument look
bad, what else are they selectively quoting to make their arguments? This
isn't like Reuters, AP, ITAR-TASS, Kyodo and half a dozen other major news
agencies are on the ground writing about what they see as events unfold -
Snowden chose which documents to gather, then chose Greenwald and Poitras
specifically to give these documents to. These guys have the ultimate control
over which documents get reported, what parts of the documents get shared with
the public, and which documents get shared with which news agencies. The guy I
quoted is stating that he feels Greenwald and the people he is working with
had no qualms about selectively quoting from an expert source in order to keep
their argument from looking weak. There's little risk to the authors in
misquoting Stewart Baker - how many people read his blog? How many people here
on HN know about the blog post before I linked to it? There's almost no risk
whatsoever in selectively quoting a document from Snowden to make their point
- no one has access to it except for the NSA and whoever Greenwald has allowed
access.
From the NSA porno article, they pull out a few paragraphs to make their point
- what's in the rest of the report? If the information regarding the
inconsistency in the public/private lives of those 6 individuals was
documented in a "previous SIGINT assessment report", why are they showing us
this report instead of that one? Was that other report sent to the Departments
of Justice, Commerce and the Drug Enforcement Agency, too? If the information
in that other report wasn't sent to them, what information on those 6
individuals was in this report that would have been of interest? Better yet,
why can't Greenwald just redact the identifying information and let us read
the whole damn report for ourselves?
And it's not just that one. Here's a paragraph from a recent Washington Post
article[1]:
_One senior collection manager, speaking on the condition of anonymity but
with permission from the NSA, said “we are getting vast volumes” of location
data from around the world by tapping into the cables that connect mobile
networks globally and that serve U.S. cellphones as well as foreign ones.
Additionally, data are often collected from the tens of millions of Americans
who travel abroad with their cellphones every year._
I have no idea who is saying what in that paragraph, beyond the fact that an
anonymous collection manager said "we are getting vast volumes".
Why were the specific encryption systems that the NSA had compromised and the
countries targeted redacted from the source documents that we were shown[2] in
the BULLRUN leak? Everyone's up in arms about Dual EC PRNG, but that might not
even be what that document was refering to. It would be trivial for the media
to reveal it and end all doubt, but keeping it hidden and instead writing
about how the NSA is betraying our trust and compromising the security of the
same crypto systems that we all use makes a better headline.
Or one could ask why we only got a limited subset of the PRISM slides. What
else is in there? Why can't we see it? Would that information invalidate their
argument?
[1] [http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-
tr...](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-tracking-
cellphone-locations-worldwide-snowden-documents-
show/2013/12/04/5492873a-5cf2-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html)
[2]
[http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/09/05/us/documents-r...](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/09/05/us/documents-
reveal-nsa-campaign-against-encryption.html?ref=us)
~~~
summerdown2
What a great answer! Thank you for responding :)
I see it a little differently, though I agree with your basic point about not
being able to work out the whole truth from only partial information.
The reasons I'm happy to give Greenwald's NSA reporting a (qualified) pass on
this are:
1) He (and a few others) are the only source of information we have on the
level of surveillance we're all exposed to. Greenwald is a commentator
speaking up to power, and the justification I see is that there is a basic
asymmetry in that power. Without these stories, no-one would be challenging
the surveillance.
Note that I'm not giving him a pass because the stories are unsupported. I'm
giving him a (temporary) pass because so many have later been confirmed to be
true. In essence, we need a debate on the level of surveillance a democracy
will have, and without this as a catalyst, it would not be happening.
2) I suspect that a lot of these documents are highly sensitive. As much as
I'd like a debate, I don't want to risk people's lives. Hence, if Greenwald
produces the minimum documentation that still sparks reform, I think he's done
us all a service.
~~~
csandreasen
Thanks for continuing the conversation - I don't think I've ever seen a thread
continue on for a week here on HN. :)
I suspect that ultimately the truth lies somewhere in between the media's
portrayal of the NSA and the administration's own description - there are
likely privacy and/or oversight issues at play, but I don't buy the prevailing
attitude that the NSA is a rogue agency that is sweeping up everything it can
simply for the purpose of sweeping up everything it can.
As a journalist, any time Greenwald wants to release information he needs to
evaluate what effect his reporting will have on his journalistic reputation
alongside the profitability of his reporting. I think he's unlikely to ever
write an article that states that the NSA is doing something beneficial to
national interests - it won't bring in nearly as many readers as a story on
overzealous infringing of privacy, and it could potentially call into question
his previous reporting.
That's not to say that you can't have reporting that's both balanced and worth
reading. I've found some of the NY Times' reporting on the NSA to be fairly
interesting. In particular, "No Morsel Too Miniscule for Consuming NSA"[1],
despite the sensational title, was fairly balanced; definitely not propaganda,
but at the same time not falling into the trap of saying "the NSA is likely
watching you, your friends and your family 24/7". They go on for 7 pages
describing the NSA's problems and successes, inefficiencies, bureaucracy, etc.
They manage to ask the reader to call into question privacy issues and ask
whether we're getting our tax dollar's worth in terms of foreign intelligence
delivered - and they managed to do it without whipping their readers into
fear-driven frenzy. It astounds me that two different news agencies can look
at the documents that Snowden leaked and get such different interpretations.
[1] [http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/world/no-morsel-too-
minusc...](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/world/no-morsel-too-minuscule-
for-all-consuming-nsa.html?_r=0)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Binstar: Create and manage PyPI or Conda repositories - apples2apples
http://continuum.io/blog/binstar
======
apples2apples
My favorite part of this service is the Continuous Integration of your build.
[http://docs.binstar.org/continuous_integration.html](http://docs.binstar.org/continuous_integration.html)
One stop shop to keeping your builds up to date with master.
$ conda -c <your_channel> update <package_name>
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Forbes misses the point of the 4-day work week - terpua
http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/1209-forbes-misses-the-point-of-the-4-day-work-week
======
swombat
Well, that's not really a fair criticism of Forbes, in this case.
Yes, Forbes "misses the point" of the "4-day workweek" as preached by
37-signals... but there's a good reason for that: they weren't talking about
that version of the 4-day workweek.
The Forbes article clearly refers to a 4-day-workweek scheme instituted by
Chrysler, not 37-signals - and their analysis of why it's a load of bollocks
is pretty much spot on. Forbes hasn't missed the point - Chrysler has..
assuming they were even aware of the existence of that point in the first
place, which I doubt.
Here we have a case of two things called by the same terms but referring to
very different initiatives.
Ironically, I think 37-signals missed the point that the article wasn't about
them!
~~~
alex_c
So, the article is 37signals missing the point about Forbes not actually
missing the point of Chrysler missing the point of the 4-day workweek?
~~~
swombat
I think you hit the point on the head.
------
KirinDave
At this last RailsConf we were introduced to the concept of the 4-day workweek
by DHH, and the audience snickered. Many of us are working small companies and
startups. The 4-day workweek is definitely a luxury I never could enjoy during
my times in small startups.
Not only that, but a little bird inside 37s told me that the true 4-day work
week works for only a few people at 37s while a few other people put in long,
hard hours getting a lot of the tedious work of maintaining a body of software
done.
If they keep playing at this, DHH is going to exemplify a new icon of the
Pointy Haired Boss. The thing that's most frustrating about that is that DHH
is actually pretty good at what he does (meaning framework capture), and if he
focused more he'd be a lot better and we'd see a lot more good features out of
products of 37s.
~~~
gruseom
_the true 4-day work week works for only a few people at 37s while a few other
people put in long, hard hours getting a lot of the tedious work of
maintaining a body of software done_
If that's true, it's significant. It would mean that what they're saying is
bullshit, no?
~~~
KirinDave
No.
What it means is that its not axiomatic. Sometimes you need to roll the hard 8
(or more appropriately work the hard 80) to get things done. Other times when
there isn't quite so much on the line it makes sense to keep your workload
lower.
Our profession is very subject to burnout and requires a _lot_ of education to
keep up. Taking time off is valuable for peak cognitive function.
That said, DHH may take it too far. And I know it would frustrate the hell out
of me if I heard DHH talking about the 4-day work week while I was working on
the things he is almost unconsciously refusing to do.
~~~
gruseom
_Sometimes you need to roll the hard 8 (or more appropriately work the hard
80) to get things done. Other times when there isn't quite so much on the line
it makes sense to keep your workload lower._
But that's not at all what they're saying.
------
axod
It'd be nice to move away from obsessive hour counting. It's like measuring a
programmers worth in terms of lines of code produced. Give people the freedom
to work when they like, and have good measurements in place to ensure they are
achieving what they should be.
~~~
blogimus
A problem is that there are many of us who work by the billable hour for
companies that are legally liable if hours reporting is found not to be
accurate.
~~~
LogicHoleFlaw
I think accurate measurement of _time spent_ and accurate measurement of
_results achieved_ are two separate issues.
------
mynameishere
Lots of factories have 12 hour swing shifts.
What I've done in the past is have a 6-day workweek, with Friday and Saturday
being 1/2 days. I really liked it, but most people don't have a pleasant walk
to work like I do, so the commute is a net loss.
------
sysop073
Wow. This got posted to HN 20 minutes after the original Forbes story.
Impressive
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=281512>
------
ideas101
forget 4-day work week - think about the sub-culture of 4-Hour workweek...
read the book "The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the
New Rich"
~~~
Hexstream
Ah yes, yet another "Get Rich Quick Without Working" scheme. The world needs
that.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Changing our legal entity from Ltd to GmbH - JdeBP
https://transloadit.com/blog/2019/03/changing-our-legal-entity/
======
ElBarto
British limited companies have been tremendously popular across the EU because
they are so simple and cheap to setup and manage.
The UK is really hurting itself with Brexit here.
Of course, why other EU countries make it so onerous to setup a company is
another issue...
> It would require a far lower initial investment (300 GBP vs. 25,000 EURO)
The minimum capital investment to setup a limited company is £1. Perhaps they
are including other fees to get to £300. Effectively the only cash that has to
be paid is the fee (about £20) and it can be done in minutes online...
~~~
detaro
Since they founded in 2012, they could also have created a German
Unternehmergesellschaft, which starts with 1€ capital too, and "grows" into a
GmbH (25% of net income have to be added to the company investment, until the
25k€ threshold is reached, at which point the company can convert). Since
those were introduced, Ltd. has become a lot less common for German founders.
~~~
ElBarto
I still don't understand this complexity.
Be bold. Slash requirements and red tape instead of adding another layer.
~~~
detaro
GmbH is a limited company: it protects the owners legally, in exchange it's
required to actually have some assets that can be used to pay claims, and some
investment from the owners into it. The UG was added as an easier path into
that: you don't need the capital right now, but already gain the protection,
in exchange the different label broadcasts that to everyone you're doing
business with.
Unlimited companies come without those restrictions on founding them. It's a
tradeoff: harder requirements in exchange for protection.
~~~
ElBarto
That does not explain the reason for making things complicated.
British limited companies are extremely simple and cheap: Minimal capital
requirements (£1), protection, and minimal red tape and fees (as said, minutes
to create one online and £20).
I fail to find a valid reason to have it differently.
~~~
detaro
The assumption that limited companies without requirements make it to easy to
abuse that protection (decreasing trust in companies with that status), and
that thus there's value in signaling through the company status that it has at
least something backing it up.
Clearly only having GmbHs didn't meet demand, since quite a few people went
for british Ltds despite them having a bad reputation, so a native replacement
for those was created.
~~~
ElBarto
In the real world nothing guarantees that a company is solvent.
> went for british Ltds despite them having a bad reputation
Cheap shot there. They don't have a bad reputation, assuming that claiming
that companies from one of the main economies in the world have "bad
reputation" makes any sense at all.
The reason people go for them is that most other European countries make it
onerous to setup a company, while the UK does not see any reason to make it
difficult.
Requiring €25k shuts the door to many people who would like to setup their own
small business, for example.
~~~
detaro
It's not a cheap shot, it was reality, especially in B2B contexts, that if
your new, clearly German, company was a foreign limited instead one of the
native ones that was seen as problematic by some customers (obviously
depending on the field etc. too)
And again, the rates of German Ltds. have gone down massively with the
creation of the UG, so clearly that policy correction is working and not seen
as overly onerous. (although lots of small companies also operate as unlimited
companies)
~~~
ElBarto
> And again, the rates of German Ltds. have gone down massively with the
> creation of the UG, so clearly it's working and not seen as overly onerous.
My point is that UG create another layer instead of simplifying GmbH, which
they refuse to do. From what you said UG still force you into GmbH: "25% of
net income have to be added to the company investment, until the 25k€
threshold is reached". That's still quite onerous.
I think this is cultural. In the Anglo-sphere, the culture is much more one of
laisser-faire. Other culture are much more fearful of any financial risk.
At the end of the day, though, on this I think the UK has it right: Make it as
easy as possible for people to start a business. There is no downside.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Why doesn't the "threads" link on HN include submitted stories too - rythie
Why doesn't the "threads" link on HN include submitted stories too
======
tokenadult
A good question to put in the feature requests thread.
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=363>
~~~
rythie
ok done
------
yan
Use submitted for that. i.e. <http://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=rythie>
~~~
rythie
The link for that is buried down under my profile though
------
brk
'cuz it doesn't.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Loopstack - 4-track Android Looper - bane
http://www.singlecellsoftware.com/loopstack
======
bane
The author also makes Caustic, probably one of the best music apps on any
mobile platform.
[http://www.kvraudio.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=317623&pos...](http://www.kvraudio.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=317623&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0&sid=dacec0311270d7b8d5a7887d7ea56832)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Please Stop Using Ruby - MagicPropmaker
https://dev.to/jimsy/please-stop-using-ruby-4lf1
======
hinkley
I did one rails project a number of years back. When I had to learn NodeJS it
wasn't that surprising because so many things in Node borrowed ideas from
Rails (and part of why the module ecosystem developed so fast).
From what I recall from Rails developers, you end up having to focusing early
on removing duplicated effort from the system, whereas Node seems to be just
enough faster that nobody worries about it.
The project I'm working on should be able to run with a third of the hardware
and a quarter of the round trip requests to the server room, but it's fast
enough that they just keep doing CPU intensive work instead of calculating
subsets of the data ahead of time.
And once you start down that route you find the spaghetti has gotten pretty
challenging, and weird little requirements that are super-expensive to
implement have snuck in. It's hard to walk these things back.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Javascript SetInterval With Context - jQueryIsAwesome
http://javascriptisawesome.blogspot.com/2011/11/setinterval-with-context.html
======
igorw
The reason why `this` is set to the window is because of the way the `this`
keyword is bound in JavaScript. It is bound at call time.
If at call time it is being called on an object, it will have the value of
that object. Otherwise it will have the value of window.
var obj = { f: function () { return this; } };
// returns the object
obj.f()
// returns window
var f = obj.f;
f();
What is happening here is that the setTimeout() calls the lambda at some later
point, and it's no longer in the context of the object.
An alternate fix for the issue would be:
var obj = (function () {
var that = {};
that.doSomethingLater = function () {
setTimeout(function () { console.log(that); }, 1000);
};
return that;
})();
obj.doSomethingLater();
An article on the subject (that also talks about call and apply):
[http://www.robertsosinski.com/2009/04/28/binding-scope-in-
ja...](http://www.robertsosinski.com/2009/04/28/binding-scope-in-javascript/)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
The Rise of DOS: How Microsoft Got the IBM PC OS Contract (2011) - bemmu
https://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/software/286148-the-rise-of-dos-how-microsoft-got-the-ibm-pc-os-contract
======
valarauca1
Every discussion of Microsoft and the IBM PC Contract seems to gleam over the
fact that Bill Gate’s mom was on the Board of Directors of United Way with
then IBM CEO John Opel.
Did this affect the final outcome? Idk, but it can help you get your foot in
the door.
It is easy to see Microsoft as a scrappy software company trying to edge it
out, and executing well.
But the founders were lucky from birth.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ikea's Minimum Wage Hike Was So Successful, It's Raising Wages Again - jrs235
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/24/ikea-minimum-wage_n_7648804.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
======
thrillgore
What do you know? A lot of problems get solved by increasing the wages!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Scott Adams Blog: The End of Capitalism - Anon84
http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/the_end_of_capitalism/
======
ryanwaggoner
This is perhaps the most poorly-thought out post on economics I've read in a
long time. Adams is essentially arguing for a completely unrealistic set of
draconian regulations to manage every aspect of society, from capital
investment to personal health. An example:
"Stock bubbles could be avoided by restricting how much money can be invested
in stocks, on an annual basis, to keep the price earnings ratios around 15."
Err...what? Who decided 15 was the ideal? What about those companies that
clearly don't deserve that multiple based on their growth prospects, or
companies that clearly deserve more? Why bother with a market at all?
He asserts that it's not socialism, but I'm having a hard time seeing how it
wouldn't be worse.
~~~
jwesley
What were you expecting from a cartoonist?
~~~
Retric
Cartoonists are good at finding the flaws in the current system but not really
finding ways to fix them.
So looking for some more reasonable ideas to address his concerns: There are
already limits on the kinds of investments low net worth individuals can make
and quite possible some for of useary law limiting interest to ~20 - 30% which
would cut down how much credit people can get and reduce there payments at the
same time. A few changes to how people can invest their 401k's so they need
some reasonable P/E and diversification if they have less than say 200k and
are over 55 might not be a bad idea.
I think most of what he is complaining would be addressed with those changes
and something like them might even become law but we would still have
capitalism. Because capitalism is about having markets determine price which
would still happen based on the actions of people with more money.
------
darjen
More like the downfall of crony capitalism, caused by the federal reserve.
------
MikeCapone
Okay, I just skimmed it, but that didn't make much sense. I guess it's a Scott
Adams post...
~~~
graemep
He is probably right in that the economic system needs to evolve to keep up
with technological change, but he misses the most important reason for that
(the increased importance of products with negligible marginal cost of
production), and he has no reasonable idea of possible solutions.
He is not content to be a cartoonist and has so far tried to write about
physics (the last part of, I think, the Dilbert Principle) and religion (God
Debris, which is a free download - he manages to come up with crude versions
of ideas that Hinduism got to millennia ago).
------
DanielBMarkham
_"...The economy is now too complicated for even the regulators to know when a
con or a huge mistake is happening..."_
I stopped after this sentence. The economy has always been too complicated for
experts to understand. That was the beauty of what Adam Smith identified --
with billions of people, billions of "unseen hands" control the division of
labor.
The current crises is the 15th crises since the civil war that involved some
sort of mortgage gimmicks. We have fraud and economic panics going back to the
1600s.
Nothing new here to see, Scott. After you blew it with the statement above,
you continued to go off the rails with the rest of the article, all because of
your belief that economies can be engineered. That's a farce that Smith
observed in his day. You'd think that a basic education would take most people
beyond that point.
~~~
timr
_" The economy has always been too complicated for experts to understand."_
Adams' thesis doesn't rest upon any assumptions about the complexity of the
historic economy. He's simply acknowledging a fact: the economy of today is
much _faster_ than it has ever been before. Scammers can effectively hide
behind the speed of their actions. That's new.
Once upon a time, regulatory agencies like the SEC had a fighting chance of
catching stock scams, because the market was _slower_. It was still efficient,
but because there were fewer players, making fewer plays per billionth of a
second, they had a chance of stopping crime. Today, the best that the SEC can
do is to (maybe) catch these guys in retrospect -- and there's absolutely no
chance that they're catching all of them. Thanks to modern technology, market
manipulation can happen at the speed of light.
~~~
JulianMorrison
There are two ways to speed up antiscamming that I can think of. It could
become automated, AI-controlled, with a machine capable of pulling the trigger
at computer-speed. Or, it could become distributed, one-on-one. The latter
seems to me to have better scaling characteristics.
How about this as an idea: suppose somebody starts a financial market which
from day one has a system of guarantors. You have to be introduced by a
member, who thereby takes full personal responsibility for your bankrupt
losses.
~~~
randallsquared
The "full responsibility" thing means I will never introduce anyone, save
possibly my own children.
~~~
JulianMorrison
You would be able to demand insurance and payment from them as a condition.
You could demand they let you audit on zero notice. In the worst case you
would be able to revoke their sponsorship and that of their transitive
protégées (stopping your losses by cutting off responsibility for any future
transactions).
The idea here is to make the risk manifest with the risk-taker, rather than
letting it settle by default on their clients.
------
hohlecow
At the risk of being a hypocrite (mortgage, student loans), why not eliminate
credit? Can't afford a $200,000 house or $20,000 car without credit? Guess
what, no one else can either. Prices of those goods would fall back to
reasonable levels. Can't afford cable, data plan, or fancy clothes? Guess
what, you don't need those things, so learn to live without them.
What good has credit brought the individual? Inflated prices, slavery to debt.
What good has that done for corporations, banks and governments? Trillions
worth of good. (Not saying that corporations, banks, and governments are bad,
just pointing out that they are the winner with regards to credit.)
I realize prohibiting credit instantly would be a huge jolt to the system, but
wouldn't it prevent similar problems in the future?
~~~
mindslight
Credit is just the continuous version of slavery. There's little difference
between a literal slave and someone deep in debt with creditors forcibly
confiscating their income. Unfortunately the market rewards those who use
credit, which encourages a society based on debt rather than one based on
widespread assets.
However, this does not mean that credit should or can be prohibited via edict.
What will happen is that over time communications technology/market efficiency
will progress to the point that anonymous transactions will (once again) make
economic sense.
When it once again becomes feasible to transact your life using money (instead
of the current identity based "point" system), it will make sense for people
to liquidate all sources of credit and laugh as the creditors are unable to
collect. When this catches on, the credit system will crumble.
edit: cool - mass downmods for an idea that doesn't mesh with the groupthink
du jour. didn't know one had to pay karma to hopefully start a discussion.
~~~
jwesley
Let me guess, you just watched Zeitgeist Movie? Great flick.
~~~
mindslight
Never watched the first one, but I saw the 'Addendum' a while ago and thought
it was mild at best. They point out a lot of problems and the history, but
their proposed "resource-based economy" solution is just more monolithic
authoritarian gobbleygook.
------
theschwa
What he's talking about is essential Corporatism; its been tried, and it
doesn't work. In fact, its more of a continuation of our current trends which
have caused these problems in the first place.
------
known
We need both Socialism and Capitalism to build and sustain a great nation.
1\. Prevent race to the bottom aka Socialism 2\. Promote race to the top aka
Capitalism
------
petercooper
_Perhaps your health insurance premiums would be based on your body mass index
and whether or not you smoke._
You mean it's not already? I'm an ignorant Brit with state healthcare (mostly)
in this regard, but doesn't insurance work this way in the US?
Our car insurance varies on gender, age, employment, and all sorts of factors
- shouldn't health insurance be based on.. well.. your claim risk too?
~~~
bmj
Not unless you are paying for your own insurance.
This is, however, how life insurance works.
~~~
petercooper
I'm surprised anyone's self employed in the US with the various hurdles
(higher taxes, choosier health insurance) :)
------
chaostheory
to me the future isn't about some new variation of the decrepit systems that
already exist (capitalism, socialism, democratic republics, ...).
when you think about it, those systems are just hacks meant to maximize the
good parts of humanity (cooperation, innovation, ...) and minimize the bad
parts (corruption, ...). imho what we have now is the acme of those systems
I feel that if humanity can survive long enough (with our scientists and
current infrastructure intact), eventually we can make those systems obsolete
by fixing the root of the problem: basic human nature - specifically the part
where sub-systems try to maximize their efficiency at the expense of the
system as a whole. bureaucratic systems (no matter how large or small) can
limit it (temporarily), but they can never eliminate it in the long term...
to me the answer is human evolution through artificial means.... a shared
consciousness (aka the borg); though i'm sure it'd have its own set of
problems...
------
annoyed
idiocracy, here we come!
------
jderick
I thought this was going to be funny?
------
Allocator2008
I think one thing similar to one of the things he said is to limit the amount
of tax free equity one can hold in a 401K plan. Like say if you hold more than
50% of your 401K as equity, there will be a tax incurrance. That way,
government is not "dictating" your portfolio, but it is "encouraging" you to
have a well-balanced, more conservative portfolio. Dictation by the government
on one's portfolio I don't think would work any better than prohibition
worked, but small things here and there I think can be done to encourage
people to have more conservative holdings, and therefore keep a lid on market
"bubbles".
That said, I think I have concluded that capitalism will never go away, simply
because we are the "gene machines", programmed towards the best interest of
the "selfish gene", and therefore, we will always have a "greed is good"
mindset. It is in our DNA. We can't escape it. A socialist society would never
happen in the long run, because quite simply the competition of genes would
not allow it. No political or economic theorist can beat natural selection.
Survival of the fittest is universal, it created us, and our markets, and will
continue to shape our lives, like it or not. My opinion anyway.
~~~
maxwell
Capitalism is just a system that replaced heredity with exchange values as the
economic imperative. It's only been used by a few primate tribes for a few
hundred years. It's about as significant to the genetic tree of life as this
sentence I'm writing is to the internet. And it's dying anyway; this site, for
instance, implements a postcapitalist economic system.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Learning to Predict Where Humans Look [pdf] - meseznik
http://people.csail.mit.edu/torralba/publications/wherepeoplelook.pdf
======
meseznik
mirror: [http://spotidoc.com/doc/744813/learning-to-predict-where-
hum...](http://spotidoc.com/doc/744813/learning-to-predict-where-humans-look)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Firefox 12 Running in a Win2K VM in WebAssembly in Firefox 63 on MacOS 10.6.3 - kibwen
https://twitter.com/justindarc/status/1033115285950275586
======
DerekL
The title has a mistake. The actual version is “macOS 10.13.6 High Sierra”.
I'd be very impressed if a modern browser ran on an operating system from
2009–2011.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Online Cassette Tape Museum - noonespecial
http://www.tapedeck.org/index.php
======
Gormo
Reminds me of the 5.25" disk sleeve gallery: <http://www.cyberden.com/dsa/>
Edit: I pasted the link in without realizing that the maintainer of the site
had recently defaced all of his images with a visible watermark. It's a bit of
a disappointment now.
------
zandorg
I remembered those insane 120 minute cassettes full of ZX Spectrum games, of
which the magnetic tape was extremely thin and completely hazardous in the
long run.
------
vijayr
Reminds me of <http://www.starringthecomputer.com/>
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Does a decent non-YouTube video discovery aggregator exist? - anderspitman
I've been thinking a bit about decentralized video hosting lately. I think to see innovation in this space we have to get past YouTube's stranglehold on search/recommendations and discovery in general.<p>I think a lot of content creators would jump at the opportunity to host their videos with another provider (or even host it themselves, maybe on a p2p platform), but from what I can see it simply doesn't make monetary sense to go anywhere but YT.<p>It would be cool if this could be done in a reasonable decentralized way, but I think even a decentralized service would go a long way to fostering competition in the hosting/encoding space.
======
sp332
There are cross-site video search engines. Even Google, Bing, DDG, etc have a
"video" tab in the search results.
I don't know how decentralized recommendations would work beyond a simple
keyword search. They're kinda subjective, so I think that's easier to do with
people making curated lists instead of something automated.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Ask HN: Is There a Door Lock with an API? - oellegaard
We're couple of developers who made a company around a year ago and we've now grown to around 8 people and moved into a brand new office.<p>We've been trying to use modern and integrated solutions for everything (e.g. integrating our sonos with alerts as well as the phillips hue) and we really want everything to work together. However, the solutions I could find for door locks is very enterprisy, expensive and non-integratable.<p>Is there a cool (startup?) that makes physical door locks with an API/integration, so that we can easily provision new people when they start?
======
jason_slack
There is a bonus scene from the movie "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin", where
they show Mark Karples using a web interface and a micro controller to open a
door. Even shows with a remote too.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeJSRboDb2A](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeJSRboDb2A)
------
Tomte
I just remember back when I was visiting/"sightseeing" Shackspace, the hacker
space in Stuttgart, Germany.
They had built a door lock whose bolt was driven by some microcontroller with
a web interface. So they could give out permissions and open the door with
their smartphones (important because very large and diverse set of people who
want to enter – physical keys would have been impractical).
I was really surprised when there was a glitch and some guy couldn't open the
door anymore. The door was bolted, and for a minute or two noone could enter
or leave.
I think that was the most blatant (and scary) violation of just about every
fire code in existence that I've ever experienced first hand.
~~~
barlo
They should've used a door strike meant for such things that they would've
been able to control with their microcontroller, and then still have a normal
knob/lock in place as a failsafe.
A quick google found the sort of setup I'm talking about and a how-to. These
are the types of strikes use on commercial setups.
[http://www.instructables.com/id/Easy-Bluetooth-Enabled-
Door-...](http://www.instructables.com/id/Easy-Bluetooth-Enabled-Door-Lock-
With-Arduino-An/)
------
746F7475
It sounds really scary to control front door via API and I don't really see a
way to implement such a thing securely without a lot of work (running ethernet
cable from your front door to air gapped server) and then there is the problem
of how you use it. You can't have mobile app that could unlock your door since
it would need internet/wifi connectivity which automatically just screams "not
secure enough!" to me
~~~
oellegaard
There are already solutions from RUKO (Assa Abloy) which lets you do it with
your phone, but something with a local server and an ethernet cable should be
safe enough IMO. In our case, you still need to de-activate a separate alarm.
It's literally just the replacement of the key and anyone can get a lock pick
kit on amazon.com anyway :-(
~~~
746F7475
But you have to communicate with the server and if you are outside of the door
you can do it either through 3G (Internet) or WiFi.
Which means if users WiFi password is bad anyone can walk in or if your
product isn't 100% solid the server can be attacked and security disabled.
------
gpaterno
We have a PoC that works with securepass (or the free form
[https://login.farm](https://login.farm)) that is able to swap username with
the RFID tag id to open a door. We had a sample implementation with a
raspberry PI that electrically open a lock with also OTP using RADIUS (and now
APIs). Unfortunately nobody understood it .... :-(
------
remyp
Perhaps August Lock? I've never used it so I know very little, but at first
glance it does seem to have an API of some sort.
~~~
jabzd
I think August Lock would even take the need for an API away, just need to
manage users via existing features. I think it even lets you timebox if you
only want certain employees to have 8 - 5 access vs 24 hour access.
However, it'd be an extra step and not integrated with some central employee
list so the risk of forgetting to remove someone may be too high if using
existing features, so that point may be moot.
------
jamesdullaghan
Lockitron has an API and is a great company afaik.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Microsoft Patents Office Spying System - justinwhitefoot
http://www.reuters.com/article/blogBurst/technology?type=technologyNews&w1=B7ovpm21IaDoL40ZFnNfGe&w2=B82x9Ksc5UNVzDjpITcIrRbi&src=blogBurst_technologyNews&bbPostId=CzBctWMo5VGUZCz2f5oUDvDa1FCz36SjVoWOHOOB7AG9YaSS6Bp&bbParentWidgetId=B82x9Ksc5UNVzDjpITcIrRbi
======
Tichy
Would be cool if they could also monitor the workers brain function and ensure
that it is related to the task at hand.
On the other hand, if they have reached that stage, maybe they won't need
workers anymore...
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Tell HN: I wrote a Ruby lib to access Hacker News. - timmorgan
http://github.com/seven1m/hackernews
======
timmorgan
Not sure how unique this is (there are probably dozens of these), but it was
fun for learning to deal with submitting forms and handling session cookies.
Feedback welcome.
Edit: I should say, the reason I wrote this -- I wanted to track my upward
progression of karma (and hopefully, average karma) over time. I have a script
that runs daily and stores those two values in a CSV file.
~~~
melvinram
Seriously? Why? Why do you care about your points on here?
It's cool that you built this. Kudos for figuring out the code part.
Negative kudos for having a purpose that won't lead to building a kick-ass
company or technology.
I know I'm probably going to loose karma due to this comment. I really don't
care about karma. Karma should be the side-effect of your activity/comments
here, not the driver of your activities/comments.
I'd recommend spending time more wisely.
~~~
jseifer
Your comment is trollish. Who are you to judge how the poster wants to spend
his time? How do you know the code he wrote for this didn't teach him
something that will some day lead to him building a kick-ass company or
technology? That might not be his goal. Even if it was, everyone needs some
time to unwind. Some people happen to do that by writing code.
~~~
jrockway
If everyone was trying to build a kick-ass company all the time, nobody would
have time to use the services of your kick-ass company.
------
euroclydon
Now we just need a karma ticker to embed in a website or as a desktop widget.
~~~
nanijoe
You can already get that here:
<http://duckduckgo.com/karma.html>
------
latortuga
Nice try hacker news password harvester!
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Online Typing Practice for Programmers - less_penguiny
http://www.speedcoder.net/
======
less_penguiny
I recently realized (when pair-programming) that I spend a rather obnoxious
amount of time dealing with the fallout from typos. I have known how to touch-
type since school, but this was only good for the non-symbolic keys, omitting
the parentheses, bars, etc. we programmers use for syntax. I started using
this site (and another similar one: [https://typing.io/](https://typing.io/))
and after two weeks, I've already noticed a reduction in errors — and a big
improvement in getting VIM to do my bidding. I feel this is one of those areas
where a small investment in training (say 12 hours lifetime total) has a big
pay-off, so I wanted to share.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Coronavirus and Credibility - Rerarom
http://paulgraham.com/cred.html
======
crusso
Do people appreciate that denial of the severity of this virus came from all
political quarters?
Here's one showing the mistakes of left-leaning media I found in 2 seconds:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=36&v=wVDPVBZF2Xg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=36&v=wVDPVBZF2Xg)
It's just as easy to find supercuts of Pelosi, DeBlasio, and other prominent
Democrats telling people that they didn't need to start social distancing or
that the virus wasn't airborne contagious.
Bad judgement is a human failing that cuts across party lines. To think that
this is a long-term credibility problem for only some people shows a lack of a
healthy diversity of news sources. At the end of this, everyone will go back
to their teams' dugouts and prepare for the next political battle. Nothing
will have been learned about credibility.
~~~
javagram
It did come from all political quarters, however one political quarter stayed
in denial much longer. Notice how many of the clips from your video are from
January or early February.
The POTUS was still publicly pushing the coronavirus = flu comparison in early
March even after we saw what happened in Iran and Italy. Remember, he said on
February 28 that being worried about the coronavirus was “their new hoax” from
the media and his political opponents, so he himself recognized his political
opponents were pointing out the severity by late February.
Edit: i don’t want to get too deep in the politics with this, I do agree with
your ultimate point that most won’t learn from this and will simply return to
their team’s side regardless of who got this one more right.
~~~
crusso
_however one political quarter stayed in denial much longer_
Now you're splitting hairs. You know who the first politician in the USA who
was banging the drums in alarm about Wuhan and the coronavirus? Tom Cotton.
Republican Senator. Do you support him now? Does his early conviction of the
severity of this event put you behind him and everyone who echoed his
concerns? Are you likewise now opposed to the people who were ridiculing him
as a conspiracy theorist and fear-monger?
~~~
jsnk
I'm glad you brought Tom Cotton up here. He was one of the few individuals who
was able to ask the right questions at the right time. And yet, when he did
that, all kinds of mainstream media including WaPo came out saying he was
repeating a "coronavirus conspiracy theory that was already debunked".
[https://archive.vn/TG8zN#selection-999.29-999.84](https://archive.vn/TG8zN#selection-999.29-999.84)
[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/business/media/coronaviru...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/business/media/coronavirus-
tom-cotton-china.html) [https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-conspiracy-
theories/](https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories/)
[https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/483354-sen-cotton-
repeat...](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/483354-sen-cotton-repeats-
coronavirus-origins-conspiracy-theory) [https://slate.com/news-and-
politics/2020/02/republican-senat...](https://slate.com/news-and-
politics/2020/02/republican-senator-tom-cotton-regurgitating-coronavirus-
conspiracy-theories.html) [https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/politics/tom-cotton-
coronavir...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/politics/tom-cotton-
coronavirus/index.html) [https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tom-cotton-
coronavirus-china_...](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tom-cotton-coronavirus-
china_n_5e34a3b7c5b6f26233294378) [https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/baseless-
conspiracy-theori...](https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/baseless-conspiracy-
theories-claim-new-coronavirus-was-bioengineered/)
Now WaPo seems to be admitting that we should at least consider the
possibility that the virus may have originated from the Wuhan Institute of
Virology.
[https://archive.vn/UP6dx#selection-1801.148-1801.176](https://archive.vn/UP6dx#selection-1801.148-1801.176)
~~~
csense
Some HN readers who seem to be knowledgeable about genetics were discussing
the spread 73 days ago [1]. If you don't want to read the whole thread, I'll
also link to a couple specific sub-threads [2] [3].
However, I will note that a colleague of mine saw the virology institute's
location change on Google Maps around this time. Free software legend Eric S
Raymond mentioned this on his blog as well [4].
I'm pretty sure the Google Maps thing is a sign that the Chinese leadership
heard these bioweapon rumors, and figured the best way to combat them was to
require Google to lie about the institute's reported location.
There are plenty of ridiculous rumors on the Internet, why would the Chinese
government react so strongly to this particular one?
It could be because the Chinese leadership has something they're trying to
hide. But in China things are often censored all over the place with little
rhyme or reason as well. "We know this rumor's false and ridiculous, any
serious scientist knows it came from some country bumpkin eating an improperly
cooked bat, but this rumor could potentially be destabilizing, so let's force
Google to tell this lie for us" is certainly a way the Chinese government
might think.
Is it created in a lab?
The Google maps thing is pretty weak evidence. It could be explained by the
"oh crap people are catching on, we'd better make Google help with the
coverup" hypothesis, but it's equally well explained by the "we know it's
false, but we'll censor things willy-nilly because we're China and that's what
we do" hypothesis.
I don't know enough about mol bio to really understand the genetic sequences.
To summarize: The evidence seems to be inconclusive, but certainly consistent
with the possibility the virus is a Chinese bio-weapon. "Coronavirus is a
Chinese bio-weapon that somehow accidentally escaped" is a possibly true
hypothesis. There's not nearly enough evidence to say for sure. But it's a
reasonable possibility, not tin-foil hat territory.
Suggesting it was let out _on purpose_ probably _does_ get pretty close to
tin-foil hat territory; it seems hard to figure out a sane and reasonable
motive for unleashing this on the world, without also requiring some much
bigger, more complex conspiracy (which greatly weakens the prior probability
of the hypothesis).
If it _is_ lab-created, it probably escaped by a mistake, or someone not
following the rules (e.g. the janitor who's supposed to burn the dead infected
research bats sold them to a market instead to make an extra buck).
[1]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22146446](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22146446)
[2]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22147320](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22147320)
[3]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22147369](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22147369)
[4] [http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8587](http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8587)
~~~
op03
> Why would the Chinese govt react so strongly
They react to all kinds of irrelevant bullshit strongly all the time. It's a
gigantic unimaginative bureaucracy. It could very well be some peon 18 levels
down doing something done 200 times prior, in response to some news article
some other peon has classified as western propaganda.
Are they going to come out and admit that?
------
INGELRII
> They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions.
Is there any danger for them? PG seems to have very idealistic view of
politics.
As far as I know, any amount of fact checking in politics don't change
political views.
Will Fox News lose any viewers over this? Politicians may lose jobs because
bad economy, but will they lose votes because they were wrong and ignorant?
H. L. Mencken wrote:
> No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the records for
> years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating
> the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone
> ever lost public office thereby. The mistake that is made always runs the
> other way. Because the plain people are able to speak and understand, and
> even, in many cases, to read and write, it is assumed that they have ideas
> in their heads, and an appetite for more. This assumption is a folly.
I think there is great Mencken experiment going on. Always underestimate
public and see how far you can go.
~~~
basch
>any amount of fact checking in politics don't change political views.
That is what I was thinking.
Paul is writing as if credibility stems from reality. When in reality, the
reverse its true. Fox news is credible, its viewers believe that, and whatever
those credible people say, is reality. As long as people keep tuned in only to
Fox News, that reality wont shatter. Their credibility exists because of their
reach, its strength in numbers, its entertainment factor. Calling Fox News
news and not entertainment is quite a leap. Most of what they have to say
exists to keep people hooked, not to educate them into being more capable of
performing civic duties. Fox News wants people to vote in a way that benefits
Fox News, not the voter, and the same principal applies to all their coverage
of everything. Coronavirus skeptic was a contrarian position to take, it
divided their people from other people. Now that they are divided, they can
switch sides and still maintain the artificial divide, and keep their viewers
isolated from "alternate" realities.
This was a really good article by Kara Swisher of ReCode, who at the end
finally convinces her mom to heed medical warnings about being out and about,
cant convince her to turn off Fox.
[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/opinion/coronavirus-
fox-n...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/opinion/coronavirus-fox-
news.html)
They can flip a 180 overnight, and the viewers will see it as people with
"updated information" and continue to cheer them on.
[https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-stars-sean-hannity-
an...](https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-stars-sean-hannity-and-jesse-
watters-now-pretend-they-never-said-what-they-said-about-the-coronavirus)
There is the sad irony too, that the demographic who watches Fox news is
already the most likely to be at risk (age, faith over evidence, distrusting
of established medicine and government) denial not withstanding. Add denial to
the mix, and youve got a real bad stew.
~~~
ryandrake
This is a deliberately built political philosophy, one of the results of Karl
Rove's "reality-based community" [1] idea, from over 15 years ago. Whether or
not the label was actually coined by Rove is debated, but essentially this
idea is that some people lived in a world that was "reality-based" and that
others were not limited by reality and thus were better/stronger politicians.
In practice, what this means is the Bush administration did not have to
believe in and be bound by this thing called reality, they _created reality_
when they acted.
President Trump is just continuing this idea through today. Unlike GWB and
cronies, Trump and team don't even have to act to "create reality", they
merely talk and reality instantly changes for their followers. It's a powerful
tool and like him or hate him, his administration is using it skillfully.
1: [https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/faith-
certainty-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/faith-certainty-
and-the-presidency-of-george-w-bush.html)
~~~
AzzieElbab
to an outsider, americas left vs right hostility and mutual disrespect are
becoming painful to watch. lets make a counter example to they one you
provided, does the nyt "create reality" for their readers? they did publish
their fare share of dangerously incorrect material about the virus, pandemic,
the countermeasures,you name it.
~~~
nabla9
This is false equivalency.
When you have to seek to find bad examples from other side, and it's the every
day modus operandi the other side there is no comparison.
~~~
AmericanChopper
You could show this comment to anybody from either of the general left/right
tribes, and they’d think it was true. Whether you’d use this reasoning to
deride Fox News, or CNN (or pretty much any other ‘news’ organisation), would
boil down entirely to your tribal affiliation. When I was younger, having
“critical thinker” or “anti-establishment” views would generally lead to the
conclusion that politicians and mass-media tend to lie/mislead to promote
whatever their agenda is. Now, those same views seem to lead to the conclusion
that “the politicians and mass-media of the other side tend to lie/mislead to
promote their agenda, but the politicians and mass-media of my side are
generally pretty good”. I think that’s pretty sad. But perhaps I’m wrong,
perhaps things have always been this way, and my perspective has simply
changed. That said, I don’t remember any counter-culture icons coming out to
endorse career politicians who’d accepted millions of dollars from big
business interests when I was a kid.
~~~
RonanTheGrey
The downvotes on your post demonstrate the left-leaning nature of this site.
It's discouraging frankly. The thousands of conversations that occur daily on
this site, without emotion or incident; but insult "the other side"'s
politicians or news outlets as being biased? _Downvote hell_
Yes, CNN and the like are just as bad as Fox news. The sooner you folks
recognize that, the sooner we can have decent conversations about emotional
issues. _Both sides are bad_. Neither is better. No, they aren't. Stop it.
Blame them BOTH for getting us to this point so that we can leave them in the
dark past, and we all over here can talk like adults while they sit over there
and bicker, mutually accusing each other of racism and Nazism or whatever
today's 5 minute hate happens to be.
WE DO NOT NEED THEM! Either of them! There is a whole universe of conversation
that is not occurring because BOTH SIDES are refusing to engage in it, because
if you did, you would realize -- tada -- you don't need them. And they can't
have that. Viewership and income would drop.
Neither is incentivized with your best interest. And the sooner we
collectively start to see it the better.
~~~
augustt
The "both sides bad" mantra is really just lazy. The false equivalence between
the validity of whatever DJT says and what critics say have let even basic
decency be thrown out the window, let alone facts.
~~~
AmericanChopper
You must have a reasonably short memory, because people said exactly the same
sort of sensational things about Obama, and Bush Jr, and Clinton, and Bush Sr,
and Reagan... There’s not really any truth or insight in what you just said.
It’s simply an impassioned judgement about a politician you don’t
like/disagree with/don’t trust/whatever...
The truth is that most politicians are corrupt on some level, most politicians
are unduly influenced by lobbyists, few politicians truly care about their
constituents, mass media doesn’t care about the truth, even though some of
their employees might, they just care about revenue, for any political
perspective you can think of, you’ll find a media outlet willing to pander to
it.
I don’t think any of that is particularly controversial (or even insightful
for that matter). I’d wager that most people would agree with that sentiment
on some level. But they’ll tend to lose sight of reason when you suggest that
“yes, that includes the politicians you like, and the media outlets that share
your opinions”.
Any public figure of any significance is going to attract a tribe of
impassioned haters. They tend to have no greater connection with the truth
than that same persons tribe of fervent fans will.
~~~
MaysonL
But DJT lies a lot more than any of his predecessors, and hires a lot more
incompetents, and fires a lot more competents, than any of his predecessors.
~~~
AmericanChopper
You must have a reasonably short memory, because people said exactly the same
sort of sensational things about Obama, and Bush Jr, and Clinton, and Bush Sr,
and Reagan...
~~~
MaysonL
But when (if) they said those things about Obama, the Bushes, Clinton, and
Reagan, those were lies like Trump's.
~~~
AmericanChopper
Perhaps what you’re saying right now is a lie.
In general, I’m quite fond of being incredibly sceptical of the government and
all of its agents. They should be scrutinized thoroughly. But this isn’t
honest or productive scrutiny. The truth is all of those politicians lied, and
all of them exaggerated details, and misrepresented facts (though trying to
measure how much would be reasonably subjective). They also all did good work
(again open to some subjective interpretation). But your commentary boils down
to an incredibly black and white view, which ignores the sins of one group,
and exaggerates the sins of another. It almost exclusively reflects your own
biases over the actual conduct of any president.
------
btilly
There is nothing about what has happened that should surprise anyone who has
read the book _Superforecasting_.
It explains that we naturally trust people who sound smart, well-informed, and
CONFIDENT. We don't want to hear uncertainty, probabilities, or the other
signs of someone who thinks in a careful quantitative way. We want to accept a
cognitively simple answer, then move on. This is what we find comfortable.
However this is a good way to select people who are terrible at making actual
predictions. They appear to predict, but often with sufficient weasel words
that it is hard afterwards to say whether it was violated. (The book gives
real examples.) But if you put them in a setting where they can be tested,
they perform worse than uninformed monkeys. And the part of the future that
they are worst at predicting is _exactly_ what they were supposed to be
experts at!
The book _Superforecasting_ walks through how this was demonstrated, and the
discovery that there are people you will never see on CNN or Fox news who are
really good at forecasting. A fact that is extremely interesting to various
TLA agencies (one of whom paid for the research in question).
The long and short of it? Bayes' Theorem actually works in the real world. The
revolution that started with quants on wall street, analytics in baseball and
Nate Silver in politics is still ongoing.
When you are done with the book and have processed it, hopefully you will
understand why the author said in response to an audience question after a
talk, _Here’s my long-term prediction for Long Now. When the Long Now audience
of 2515 looks back on the audience of 2015, their level of contempt for how we
go about judging political debate will be roughly comparable to the level of
contempt we have for the 1692 Salem witch trials._
Hopefully the contempt that some of us have for how talking heads in January
and February of 2020 dismissed Coronavirus is a step on the path to that
future.
~~~
bo1024
There is some really interesting interplay here between forecasting and
decisionmaking. (Taleb would have a lot to say here, along the lines of
"forecasters are poor.") Maybe it makes sense that forecasts should be
measured, but decisions should be, well, decisive.
A good Bayesian should be able to make confident decisions based on
information available at the moment, while acknowledging that lack of
information is leading to suboptimal decisions.
For example, a leader can be absolutely confident that shelter-in-place is the
best decision based on the available information, while acknowledging that
there is missing information that would drastically change this assessment.
~~~
btilly
_A good Bayesian should be able to make confident decisions based on
information available at the moment..._
No.
A good Bayesian should be able to come to decisions like, "I am 70% confident
that Osama bin Laden is in that compound." While the Bayesian next says, "I am
only 50% confident that Osama bin Laden is in that compound." With both
knowing that there is a difference of opinion, but no disagreement on basic
facts or reasoning method.
It is very rare for a good Bayesian to be absolutely confident of any
prediction. And if you are often so confident, you're probably not thinking
very well. I mean that quite literally - the process of analyzing
probabilities well requires being able to make the case both for what you
think will happen, and what you think won't. Because only then can you start
putting probabilities on the key assumptions.
_For example, a leader can be absolutely confident that shelter-in-place is
the best decision based on the available information, while acknowledging that
there is missing information that would drastically change this assessment._
Really?
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22750790](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22750790)
is a discussion that I was in recently about whether on a cost benefit
analysis it is better to crash the economy by shutting things down, or to keep
things open and let lots of people die.
The decision wasn't nearly as clear in the end as I would have expected it to
be. (That all options are horrible was clear. But we knew that.)
~~~
bo1024
> No. A good Bayesian should be able to come to decisions like, "I am 70%
> confident that Osama bin Laden is in that compound."
That's not a decision though. That's an assessment, what I would put in the
same category as predictions. A decision would be whether or not to bomb the
compound.
Your post seems to miss my point, that predictions and decisions are very
different and one can be uncertain about predictions while being certain about
decisions. For example, I completely agree with this:
> It is very rare for a good Bayesian to be absolutely confident of any
> prediction.
Here's a simple example to think through the difference. You have a
sophisticated weather model that predicts 40% chance of rain today. You hate
getting wet, so you take your umbrella. In fact, you would take your umbrella
even if the chance were only 10%.
So you are really uncertain about whether it's going to rain (your forecast),
but absolutely certain that taking your umbrella is the optimal decision given
the information at hand.
~~~
btilly
You are right that I had not paid close attention to decisions.
I see no particular reason why Bayesians should be better at being decisive.
They should make better judgments given the available information. But they
are not necessarily any better at making decisions and moving on.
~~~
btilly
Expanding on this, the skill of figuring out the odds of bin Laden being in
the compound is unrelated to the skill of figuring out how to handle both
outcomes, and whether that is a worthwhile risk to take.
So a good Bayesian can inform a good decision maker, but the Bayesian is not
necessarily a good decision maker.
Similarly in the book, one of the superforecasters made the point that
listening to well-informed experts who might be bad at making decisions was
very useful. Because the expert really did have a good grasp of the current
situation and could explain it clearly, which was a great starting place for
the Bayesian who lacked background. Preparing background and making
predictions are both required, but the combination of skills need not start in
the same brain.
------
drocer88
If you're getting your "news" from CNN/Fox/MSNBC, or "gathering evidence" to
promote one the two permitted narratives, that's your problem. This is stuff
is low effort "Presidential Level Politics" 24x7. Real news died when
reporters stopped having to craft a story so that the Associated Press or
United Press International picked it up and made it available to the varied
local newspapers of America, both liberal and conservative. The old CNN that
actually did news, not talk show shenanigans reminiscent of old school Howard
Stern, is missed.
~~~
garraeth
Agreed. Unfortunately now it's more like picking a sport team ("Team CNN" or
"Team Fox"), or Apple vs/ Google vs/ Microsoft than actually finding, or
learning about, facts. Tribalism at it's finest.
The only alternative I've found (I'm open to helpful suggestions) is to ignore
that noise and read actual briefings and original sources.
But, that defeats the point of news being an honest and straight forward
source of a summary. And it takes a lot of time. And doesn't always end in
rewarding information (lies/bias in original sources exist too - eg: watching
hours upon hours of live impeachment hearings was full of lies/half-
truths/obfuscation coming from all sides).
~~~
AndrewBissell
I've found a well-curated Twitter feed of smart sources from various
ideological and media camps helps to find interesting and informative info
which would otherwise take a great deal of time to find. You do get misinfo
and bad takes sometimes, but if you set it up right it's no worse than
mainstream sources. Lists are useful as well to avoid Twitter's feed curation
algos.
Just specifically for COVID-19, this led me to:
\- Pay closer attention to the pandemic in China and request testing for my
daughter when she had flu symptoms in late January while traveling (the CDC
had no tests, of course)
\- Begin using masks and gloves while going to groceries and other stores long
before it was in common use and the value of masks had been acknowledged
\- Mentally and materially prepare my family for an extended quarantine period
long ahead of when the necessity was broadly acknowledged
~~~
alexilliamson
It sometimes feels like there is the perception that twitter is worthless and
devoid of meaningful information, but like you I've been increasingly relying
on it for news. I'm not sure where else you can collect so many different
perspectives on any given piece of news. Overtime, you learn how many grains
of salt to take with each person in your timeline, and you get a sense of
their personal biases. And if you can brush off the trolls, it's instructive
to read the arguments that happen in the replies.
The way I use twitter, it serves the same purpose as hacker news, but with a
much broader scope.
~~~
throwaway294
A BIG advantage of Twitter is that get to hear from the persons themselves
totally without filtering by the media. Maybe you do or don't like what some
public figure who posts on Twitter says, but at least DO get just what THEY
said.
~~~
Fjolsvith
This. The slanted editorializing and purposefully misconstrued out-of-context
quoting by the media long ago turned me off.
~~~
throwaway294
My response some years ago was just to turn the mainstream media (MSM) off. On
paper they can't compete with Charmin, and on the Internet they are useless
for wrapping dead fish heads. Some of their material is worse than just
misleading and down to manipulative, deceptive, dangerous, and even
destructive. I don't want even to hear the MSM and, then, have to debunk them
or risk being influenced. I hope the Internet enables some replacements, many
more outlets but focused on smaller audiences.
------
nxp
_Yes Minister_ , on how to respond to a crisis:
Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen,
but we should do nothing about it.”
Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it,
but there’s nothing we can do.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done,
but it’s too late now.”
Remember that _Yes Minister_ is a manual for politicians, not a comedy.
~~~
rahidz
Stage four requires admitting guilt, it should be "We've always known we
should've done something about it, but (opposing political party) didn't let
us!"
~~~
nickff
That back-and-forth is between two bureaucrats, who are talking about how to
obstruct politicians. One of the core premises of "Yes Minister" is that the
bureaucracy holds the real power in government, somewhat similar to the idea
of a 'deep state', though the show existed long before that phrase was coined.
~~~
AlexandrB
This seems to undermine the point at the end of the GP comment:
> Remember that Yes Minister is a manual for politicians, not a comedy.
It seems like the deep state was (more) right on this one and the politicians
are/were the ones trying to downplay the danger and generally mislead.
~~~
jacquesm
The proper name for the deep state is civil service employees and they
generally tend to be right on a lot of stuff _because they 've been at it for
decades_ rather than a couple of weeks to months. The whole idea that some
politician lands in a chair and starts making policy by their lonesome is
laughable.
~~~
dmix
> The proper name for the deep state is civil service employees
It's funny how that has become the new explanation/softer excuse. I remember
when "Deep State" was used to describe groups like the Koch Brothers and
similar power brokers well before it was adopted by the right-leaning popular
media to describe the puppet masters of the 'establishment' on the other side.
Now it's spun as an attack on simple 'civil servants'...
I guess it means whatever people want it to mean, depending on the context of
your ideology or position on the matter.
------
djaychela
From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of
people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from
comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less
dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the
illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter
account as I dared try to engage with one UK-based journalist who was saying
that 'they' were destroying the economy to serve their own foul needs
(everyone under house arrest, total control of society, etc). For me, it's
just not worth doing this - it's hard enough being separated from the people I
care about, without filling the void with attempts to have a rational
discussion with people who seem to be divorced from everyday fact.
You would think this would be the reality check that was needed, but it's not
the case for everyone. I guess that is human pyschology writ large, but I'm
finding that I just have to watch videos and not even look in the comments as
it's just a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories and people being just plain
wrong in a lot of places.
~~~
bsaul
i've been saying "not more dangerous than the flu" before it started really
going to shxt in europe, because to be honest, the epidemic doesn't look
_that_ dangerous if you're in general good health, just by looking at the
numbers from a distance.
The fact that most people seem to not have anything worse than a few days of
fever (some having even nothing at all), while at the same time others simply
die very quickly to it makes it a very peculiar epidemic. And i think this is
the reason why even amongst the medical professional i've talked to, they
first seemed not too worried at all.
As for the number of death, let's not forget the flu kills hundreds of
thousands of people each year, and that is with people getting vaccinated. It
made me realize how getting vaccinated for the flu as soon as you reach 50 may
actually be a pretty good idea..
Another thing that i haven't read a lot, is that the WHO have been alarming
people in the past with previous epidemic (srars, mers, ebola, etc), and
nothing "special" happened (i suppose partly because people correctly dealt
with it, but also because of the nature of the virus). It actually made me
realize how the whole world has been completely desensitized to catastrophic
predictions.
~~~
nullc
Just goes to show that people will continue to ignore an exponential trend
until it eats _their_ lunch _personally_.
FWIW, totally aside from that, CDC numbers for the "flu" are actually a
combined "flu and pneumonia", and according to the NHS in the UK-- which
doesn't bin the same way-- no more than 1/3rds of those deaths are due to the
flu. Other estimates have put the flu well under 10% of flu+pneumonia, though
with substantial year to year variation:
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3827586/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3827586/)
Even if you steadfastly refuse to accept the obvious exponential dynamics of
contagion in a naive population, perhaps the fact that the figures you are
reasoning from are off by a constant factor of 3 to >10 might cause you to
reconsider your level of confidence?
~~~
redis_mlc
> people will continue to ignore an exponential trend
Every cold and flu grow exponentially.
Not sure what the fixation of HN readers is on the work exponential. Although
true, using it doesn't add anything to analysis of corona virus specifically.
I'd rather talk about the false hope in ventilators, and the futility and
destruction to our economy by lockdown.
~~~
mannykannot
> Although true, using it doesn't add anything to analysis of corona virus
> specifically.
The issue of exponential growth is of relevance in response to those saying
that the number of deaths (insert the inplicit 'so far' here) is much less
than from infuenza (annually.) It is not a 'fixation' to expose the
irrelevance of that line of thinking.
More generally, the issue is a combination of the facts that this virus is
significantly more dangerous, for all age groups, than at least post- Spanish
Flu infuenza; it is very readily transmitted; and there is no (or much less)
herd immunity. When you combine these fact with the math of exponential
growth, and have establshed the doubling rate, you can do some scientific
prediction that goes beyond "so far it has not been as bad as the flu", which
is true just so long as it is, and no longer. To do that, however, you have to
hold more than one idea at a time in your head.
~~~
thu2111
The idea that viruses always grow exponentially until they reach total
saturation of the population comes from mathematical models that have never
successfully modelled any real epidemic, ever. It doesn't come from experience
of real diseases in nature, many of which were predicted by epidemiologists to
grow to enormous proportions and yet - even in the absence of control measures
- that isn't what happens.
It seems there are a _ton_ of people right now who are enjoying thinking of
themselves as intellectually and even morally superior to people who are just
pointing out facts about the statistics gathered so far (which point to flu-
like levels of danger and properties). I think the HN community is especially
prone to this because it's full of computer programmers who are used to
thinking in powers of two; some seem tempted to ascribe near-magical wisdom to
this familiarity. But nature isn't a computer and just saying "exponential
growth" over and over will eventually make fools of a lot of people, because
_it isn 't there_.
If this virus was really spreading exponentially, you'd expect to see the
proportion of positive tests going up exponentially as well. But that isn't
what is seen. In places that report the total number of tests administered
(some places don't), the proportion of positive tests increases sub-
exponentially or even hardly at all, coming to rest at about 15%, which is
roughly the background level of coronavirus infections in the population
during normal times.
It's especially disappointing to see PG fall into the trap of blaming
politicians. Politicians have in the blink of an eye ceded power to a tiny
cabal of (primarily) epidemiologists. So far they by and large _aren 't_
asking questions, instead simply doing whatever they're told even if it makes
little sense.
But we really need people to start asking those scientists difficult
questions. Citizens can do it but ultimately it only matters when politicians
do it. Epidemiologists have a track record of absolute failure. They failed
with Zika, they failed with foot and mouth disease, they're failing with CV.
Go look at the models they produce and weep; some are invalidated the day
they're published!
This guy is doing a good job of pointing out the many errors of modellers:
[https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson](https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson)
There's also some background here:
[https://blog.plan99.net/is-epidemiology-
useful-a4ec54e59569](https://blog.plan99.net/is-epidemiology-
useful-a4ec54e59569)
~~~
michaelmrose
Nobody is able to test all or even most of their population with tests
overwhelmingly concentrated among those either likely to be infected or at
least exposed one would expect the proportion of positive tests to be a
function of the testing methodology rather than a fiction of its prevalence in
the population. If for example a group is only testing those already
experiencing severe symptoms and had a 93% positive rate what would it even
mean for the proportion of positive tests to increase exponentially?
What we are supposing is instead that the number of people who are presently
infected will increase exponentially IF we don't adopt measures to decrease
the spread. This is actually what you saw in the initial period and what you
would be seeing now if we did nothing extraordinary to decrease the spread. If
you look at the 1918 flu epidemic it ultimately infected 1/3 of the
population. It is utterly unclear to me why you imagine your understanding is
better than that of the experts. It would seem you yourself are guilty of the
same sin you ascribe to programmers? From your animus towards the profession
are you perhaps a manager of same? If so you seem to have contracted at least
one of their faults.
> politicians have in the blink of an eye ceded power to a tiny cabal of
> (primarily) epidemiologists.
This literally isn't real.
The politicians are indeed at fault for the poor response. We cede to them
substantial funds and powers to both prepare for and response to situations
just like this. In fact the pentagon prepared a report on literally just this
exact crisis in 2017 that called out among other things a lack of supplies. We
opted to do nothing of import between now and today. In the crucial early days
of this crisis instead of instituting effective measures we were busy first
ignoring reports of it and then publicly claiming it is a hoax. If we aren't
brave and clear sighted enough to even ascribe blame how are we to do better
next time?
~~~
thu2111
_with tests overwhelmingly concentrated among those either likely to be
infected_
Even the highest positive rates I've seen (in the UK where the testing
situation is dire) are only 30%. In other countries with more tests it's
around 15% and stable over long periods.
If the number of infected were truly growing that fast, then you'd see the
proportion of positive tests go up and up until negative tests were hardly
happening, but that isn't close to what's seen on the ground.
_What we are supposing is instead that the number of people who are presently
infected will increase exponentially IF we don 't adopt measures to decrease
the spread_
That's not what policymakers are supposing. If that were true there wouldn't
be a global run on ventilators, which assumes enormous growth over case load
today.
_This literally isn 't real._
That's not much of a response. Where are there politicians _not_ saying their
decisions are just guided by the science? The only places where politicians
even pushed back slightly on epidemiologists are Brazil and - briefly - the
USA.
At this time what epidemiologists say should be done, is done, no questions
asked. In Denmark they are even restricting speech to stop people criticising
the adopted measures, or so it's said. Look at what happened to my post above
- even _investigating or criticising_ those currently making the decisions is
suddenly penalised.
A tiny number of academics with no track record of accuracy have obtained
enormous power now. If they say lock down, countries lock down. If they say
close the borders, the borders are closed. If they say open up, countries open
up.
It's right and proper that such people be subject to the same scrutiny as
normal politicians are.
As for politicians having done nothing, I don't think that's fair. Does the
USA not have large stockpiles of ventilators and masks? Perhaps unusable in
the end, but that level of detail is not for politicians, only civil servants.
As for beds, well, even assuming the modellers are right no healthcare system
in the world can have tens of thousands of ICU beds empty, sitting for a once
in a century pandemic. Politicians who tried to have such levels of slack
would soon be replaced by others who cared more about utilisation. I don't
think there's much to say about them at this time; for better or worse they've
taken a back seat.
------
smsm42
I agree that we have huge amount of talking heads around with zero skin in the
game and zero consequences when they are wrong, but I disagree covid-19
pandemics changed anything. There are literally dozens of politicians who have
been disastrously wrong and gave advice in public which is diametrically
opposite to what should have been, and suffered absolutely no consequences.
And everybody's reaction to this is as tribal as it has ever been - if it's my
tribe, "he may be wrong this once but it's an understandable mistake", if it's
the opposing tribe, "yet another proof these vile creatures is literally the
worst scum of humanity". Nothing changed. All tribes of American politics, at
least, that I can see, are happily turning the epidemics into the fodder for
their tribal causes, as they did with everything else before that.
~~~
rayuela
Totally agree with this. This is something you can clearly see in Trump's
approval rating, which just reached the highest levels of his entire tenure
[1]. Things are only getting more polarizing, but the really scary thing is
that this admin's approval rating climbs the worse things get and it is
worrying to see this incentive structure :(
~~~
standardUser
There has been a lot written on this in the last week. The consensus is that
Trump has received a historically tiny increase in approval rating when
compared to other presidents in moments of crisis, and that this bump has all
but disappeared already. Trump's post inauguration "bump" was similarly brief
and mild.
~~~
chickenpotpie
Comparing this to 9/11, which in the end will most likely taken far less
American lives, it really is a tiny increase. George Bush's approval rating
went up about 30%. Trump's moved a single digit amount.
------
jacquesm
Paul is off by a mile and a half on this one. They weren't worried about
getting caught. At all. The thing they would be worried about is whether or
not getting caught would have consequences. And if there is anything that you
could have learned from the last three years then it is that lying to the
public carries no consequences at all.
~~~
banads
>if there is anything that you could have learned from the last three years
then it is that lying to the public carries no consequences at al
If you study history, you realize thats been a thing for much more than just 3
years...
[https://youtu.be/VGdWIwiVMF4](https://youtu.be/VGdWIwiVMF4)
~~~
andruby
At least Regan was able to admit that he was wrong (even if he didn’t admit he
was lying). I wonder if Trump has ever admitted to being wrong.
------
lazyjones
Does pg never watch the news? Or did he just forget that "no worse than the
flu" was the general tone until late February in pretty much all 'western'
media and even MDs?
E.g.
[https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-
diseases/coronav...](https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-
diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-flu)
[https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-
vi...](https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-virus-and-
the-reality-of-the-flu) (kudos for correcting/updating later...)
Seems a bit one-sided to get so excited about wrong predictions by the
Fox/alt-right/MAGA bubble on account of one viral video.
~~~
maest
Not "western", but "American". Both your sources are US based (and cite the
CDC).
The WHO has been warning about the coronavirus for ages.
~~~
lazyjones
I live in Europe and can confirm that it was similar here. E.g. German state
media quoting a head physician:
[https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/schwabinger-chefarzt-
co...](https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/schwabinger-chefarzt-corona-nicht-
gefaehrlicher-als-influenza,RphX42Z)
(literally saying in the title it's not more dangerous than the flu)
Also, the WHO posted this on Twitter in January, draw your own conclusions:
[https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152](https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152)
~~~
thombat
When WHO relayed the Chinese belief/hope of "no clear evidence of human-to-
human transmission" (Jan 14) there were only 40 identified cases, mostly with
plausible links to the presumed origin at the market. It should be read as
"widespread action not yet justified" rather than "no need to worry at all,
ever"
------
flr03
If it was not Paul Graham this would never has made it to HN front page, but
ok... One of his point is that people should not talk about things they don't
know about. So maybe he should start applying that to himself first (and maybe
this to myself right now). The question is, how do you define the threshold of
expertise require before you start talking about a subject?
The concepts of truth, credibility, ethics, deontology that he vaguely puts
the finger onto. Those are complex topics, still being studied and will be
forever.
Blaming journalist and politics, why not, I guess some of them deserve it, but
my neighbour could have done the same analysis after couple of pints at the
pub.
~~~
ag56
No, his point was people shouldn't talk with _absolute confidence_ about
things they don't know about.
Usually in everyday life we hint at our confidence level with the language we
use: 'might', 'probably', etc. These people have trained themselves not to do
that, which they previously have gotten away with.
~~~
tertius
As an immigrant, and I'm sure many foreigners would agree, this is extremely
American.
People, gentile people, who use "might" and "probably" are weak intellectuals
by American standards. They are cast aside, especially in media, because they
cannot give definite answers. This is science and science doesn't sell.
Politicians and media types are sales-people.
This really depends on the family and milieu you grew up around and are
engaged with generally in life.
~~~
swiley
This is actually career advice I was given as a kid by an engineer at a
nuclear power plant: “don’t give the impression that you’re uncertain during
discussions even if you are.” I remember thinking “isn’t it literally your job
to be uncertain?” That _really_ bothered me and I’m reasonably sure I wasn’t
wrong to be bothered.
~~~
rsynnott
Three Mile Island?
------
ugh123
Its easy to focus on foxnews and pull all sorts of terrible content like that,
but a more serious task is to look at a lot of the statements and confidence
from the medical and scientific community early on - things around wearing
masks in public and its inability to prevent spread, or UV light from the Sun
and its ability to kill the virus (a popular statement projected by several
doctors within the media), and several others.
There has been confidence all around from seemingly credible sources - acting
on too early and thin data about what measures were effective or non-
effective, many of which have been reversed in the last couple of weeks. A lot
of this can be attributed to all sorts of news organizations (across the
spectrum) and their push to get both positive and negative coverage out as
fast as possible at the right time.
~~~
jmull
This "everyone is bad" is really off-the-mark.
If, in a fast moving situation, someone tells you something based on the best
information available at the time coming from leading experts, which later
turns out to be wrong, that's unfortunate.
If someone ignores the leadings experts and the best information available at
the time and instead tells you what they want you to believe for their own
political advantage, that's despicable.
Drawing those as equivalent just doesn't make sense. No one is perfect
anywhere on the spectrum, and you can find people who are wrong, stupid, or
disingenuous everywhere. But on one side we have most organizations generally
trying to get it right for the most part, and on the other, we have
organizations trying their best to con people, regardless of the consequences.
~~~
seppin
> This "everyone is bad" is really off-the-mark.
It's the worst take because it defeats the ability to find a solution in the
future, if nothing can be trusted nothing can be implemented.
------
anthony_r
It's very simple - skin in the game. Good that PG discovered this older-than-
humanity principle of evolution.
Heads should be rolling after a large failure like this (not necessarily
literal heads).
Don't tell me what you think, show me your portfolio.
~~~
FartyMcFarter
Boris Johnson has quite a lot of skin in the game now; he boasted about
shaking hands with coronavirus patients a few weeks ago and is now in the
hospital.
~~~
jpxw
He acquired the infection weeks after the handshake comment. It seems unlikely
the two events are linked.
~~~
polack
How do you come to that conclusion? He literally said he would _continue_ to
shake hands, so why is it unlikely that he contained it from shaking hands?
The point is also that if you continue to shake hands it doesn't make sense to
be careful regarding other ways of getting it either. His attitude towards the
whole thing would make him a prime candidate to the Darwin award if he ends up
dying.
------
jpxw
Even “reputable” sources like the Financial Times have been putting out utter
rubbish:
[https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea0557...](https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b)
My current theory is that we are seeing denial on a mass scale as a coping
mechanism.
~~~
xiphias2
The problem is that the WHO was lying multiple times, and other organizations
parroted those lies as they were afraid of confronting the WHO.
Now we are in a stage where there's no good information source (except HN
comments, though even there we must be selective).
~~~
the_af
The WHO was lying? How so?
~~~
e2021
WHO was saying almost until the point that China locked down that there was no
evidence of human to human transmission, even though Taiwan has warned them
that had strong evidence of this on December 31st 2019.
~~~
the_af
That could be a mistake or maybe they considered the prior evidence
unreliable. "Lying" implies means conscious intent to deceive. Why would the
WHO intentionally lie?
------
2bitencryption
One thing I've had trouble reconciling is the fact that the CDC estimates
24k-63k deaths from the flu this flu season[0]
We just passed 10k from covid-19. Only last week a "low" estimation of covid
deaths this year was 200k. So it seems the expectation is there will be many,
many more, and we're just at the start of all this.
On the other hand, it also seems this week like the infamous curve is
beginning to flatten, and the epidemic is slowing down. Does this contradict
the "low" 200k number? Or does the 200k number factor this in, and indicates
that the "long tail" of the disease will be very long and damaging indeed?
Some of the clips show in the video referenced in the article actually seem
pretty "sane" to me - the one guy saying "I'm not worried about getting this
illness", another saying for most people it will seem just like the flu. Those
two statements, as far as we know, are not that outlandish, right? I'm
certainly not worried about myself, and for many people it does seem to be
mild or asymptomatic?
I don't want to have an "opinion" on this matter, I want to interpret the data
and understand the truth, Fauci-style.
[0] [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-
season-e...](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-
estimates.htm)
~~~
adjkant
The thing missing here is that you're looking at deaths without looking at
number of cases of each. The flu causes the number of deaths it does because
it infects tens of millions of people a year[0]. The death rate is an order of
magnitude lower than with COVID-19 across every single age bracket. [2]
So when people say things like:
> "I'm not worried about getting this illness"
They are likely not considering that even the younger are taking as much as a
1% risk of their life, which is incredibly high. Depending on factors like the
load on the medical community at the time and others, it can get as high as 5%
or more quite easily as we have seen around the world. Currently using only
napkin math from the numbers here[1], the death rate is currently at just
under 4% over all age groups in the US.
Additionally, it is not considering the danger they are putting others in by
getting it. With the flu at a death rate of 0.2% or lower, causing deaths by
infecting people is a very small risk. Passing it to one person here
significantly ups the chances of you causing someone else to die.
Finally, flu deaths almost exclusively happen in the immunocompromised and
elderly, while COVID-19 affects younger people a LOT more.[2]
[0]
[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm)
[1] [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-
us-c...](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-
cases.html)
[2]
[https://i.insider.com/5e81f6460c2a6261b1771b05?width=600&for...](https://i.insider.com/5e81f6460c2a6261b1771b05?width=600&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
~~~
usaar333
> They are likely not considering that even the younger are taking as much as
> a 1% risk of their life, which is incredibly high. Depending on factors like
> the load on the medical community at the time and others, it can get as high
> as 5% or more quite easily as we have seen around the world. Currently using
> only napkin math from the numbers here[1], the death rate is currently at
> just under 4% over all age groups in the US.
Those are pretty high numbers. Using a Lancet study
([https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099\(20\)30243-7/fulltext)),
IFR is just under 0.1% for a 30 something year old. Hospitalization rates are
at 3.5% (2-7% confidence), so a death rate (for 30 year olds) even under a
collapsing medical systems for younger people is highly unlikely to get close
to 5%.
All said, a 0.1% death rate is still pretty dangerous and catching the disease
is something like raising your risk of death by 50% in a given year. Lockdowns
are still justified under those numbers.
> Finally, flu deaths almost exclusively happen in the immunocompromised and
> elderly, while COVID-19 affects younger people a LOT more.
Well, and old people even more. Are the relative risk ratios actually
different for covid vs. flu - or are we just seeing the effect of a disease
that is 7xish a really bad flu season?
(For young children actually, I believe covid outcomes are better than flu.)
~~~
umvi
> Lockdowns are still justified under those numbers.
And what if the effects of an extended lockdown is a tanked ecomony with a 3x
increase in suicides for the next decade? Is it still justified? Lockdowns are
only justified if the _only_ variable you are optimizing for is "number of
covid-19 deaths". Yet there are hundreds of other variables that we are
ignoring in our quest to minimize that one variable. Impossible to tell now,
but tanking the economy to flatten the curve may end up indirectly killing
even more people in the long run.
~~~
usaar333
Fair point. In some sense, I share your feelings a bit (in a lighter sense).
The park closings some Bay Area counties are doing (e.g. San Mateo) feel not
justified; I'm also not sure why the SIP was extended all the way into May
given the existing downward trajectory. [Looking at both Seattle and Iceland,
you don't need full-on SIP to keep R at 1]
------
GregarianChild
G. Orwell, _In Front Of Your Nose_ [1]:
"To see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle. One thing
that helps toward it is to keep a diary, or, at any rate, to keep some kind of
record of one's opinions about important events. Otherwise, when some
particularly absurd belief is exploded by events, one may simply forget that
one ever held it. Political predictions are usually wrong. But even when one
makes a correct one, to discover why one was right can be very illuminating.
In general, one is only right when either wish or fear coincides with
reality."
[1] [https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-
foundation/orwel...](https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-
foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/in-front-of-your-nose/)
------
throwaway5752
In the background global warming is a much greater threat to human life and
has the _exact same dynamic_ with the _exact same players_. There is also zero
introspection - the people who were wrong about covid-19 are simply denying
they said what they said. The truly scary part is they are getting away with
it in real time, and changing a large populations' memory of contemporary
events. I realize it's hard to remember further back with the enormous amount
of information we're all bombarded with, but you can just go back to 2005 and
see Larry Kudlow (Dir. NEC) just as wrong about economic policy and the depth
of the financial crisis
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Kudlow#Economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Kudlow#Economy))
but here he is again. Consider Navarro vis a vis trade. I don't think anyone
will learn anything, and for smart enough people, that needs to be the lesson.
~~~
pdonis
_> In the background global warming is a much greater threat to human life_
Before making such a confident statement, I would recommend re-reading this
particular statement in pg's essay...
"These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because
the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that
they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that
few remember what they said."
...and consider how it applies to all the people who have made confident
predictions over the years regarding global warming.
~~~
throwaway5752
Central America ([https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-
storm/fifth-...](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/fifth-
straight-year-of-central-american-drought-helping-drive-migration/)), Syria
([https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096262981...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629816301822)),
Australia
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bus...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bushfire_season)),
and Alaska [https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/sockeye-salmon-and-
cli...](https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/sockeye-salmon-and-climate-
change) might beg to differ, among others.
It is happening now. It's happening in line with predictions by IPCC. It gets
pretty bad. I can't help what people have said that has been wrong, but the
world is measurably and visibly warming and that itself was denied for a long
time. Very nearly 100% of experts in this field agree it's happening, have
agreed for quite a while, and think the impact will be dire and potentially
irreversible in the timeframe of human lifetimes. It feels like the zoonotic
coronavirus situation played out over 50 years, rather than the 15 or so since
SARS. Epidemiologists told everyone for a decade and a half this would happen,
but here we are. A large group of experts in another field is telling us a
similar thing with similar urgency. That's my only point.
~~~
pdonis
_> Very nearly 100% of experts in this field agree it's happening_
None of these "experts" have a track record of correct predictions that
justifies taking their current predictions seriously. Remember we are not
talking about the fact that the climate changes: yes, it does, it always has,
and it always will (unless at some point in the distant future we learn how to
control it accurately). We are talking about the dire predictions of
catastrophe that have been made to try to justify spending many trillions of
dollars on CO2 mitigation. Those predictions have never come true.
_> Epidemiologists told everyone for a decade and a half this would happen,
but here we are._
To know whether these were useful predictions, we would need to know more
details. Did they predict _when_ it would happen? Did they predict how it
would spread? A prediction that "this will happen, some time in the future" is
not very useful. AFAIK no epidemiologists were making predictions much more
precise than that.
Looking at the actual frequency of epidemics of various sizes in the past, we
might very roughly estimate that we will have one serious enough to involve a
significant portion of health care resources once every decade or so. But you
don't have to be an epidemiologist to do that; you just have to do the
simplest possible extrapolation of the data. We had H1N1 about 10 years ago,
and SARS about 18 years ago. That's still not a very strong prediction, but it
would seem to be as good a basis for public policy discussion (which is to
say, a fairly weak one but not negligible) as anything more complicated that
has come from epidemiologists.
~~~
torpfactory
Just a friendly reminder that the consensus estimates about climate change
have been reasonably accurate. Not perfect but decent enough as decision
making tools. See for example the IPCC report from 1990:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report)
There have certainly been very dramatic (all overly well reported) warnings
representing a minority of researchers which have not been accurate. These
should not invalidate the whole lot of predictions.
~~~
SpicyLemonZest
Sure. And while opinion polls are lagging, almost everyone in decision-making
positions is on board with the minimal predictions in this report. (Even a lot
of people normally considered climate change deniers are on board - according
to Wikipedia, the report doesn't rule out that climate change is largely
driven by natural variability!)
~~~
pdonis
_> the minimal predictions in this report_
Those minimal predictions don't justify spending trillions of dollars on CO2
mitigation. They basically say "the climate is going to change, so be ready to
deal with it".
~~~
chimprich
This is a false economy. Several studies have demonstrated that it is cheaper
to avert climate change than to deal with the effects.
Switching to low- and zero-carbon fuels, achieving greater efficiencies and so
on, is expensive, but still a lot cheaper than e.g. moving coastal cities or
engineering mega-projects to combat flooding, dealing with huge numbers of
migrants, dealing with massive changes in agriculture, worse natural
disasters, and so on.
Plus even if you deal with the effects for decades, your problem has not gone
away. The situation is worse, and the planet is still heating.
~~~
pdonis
_> Several studies have demonstrated that it is cheaper to avert climate
change than to deal with the effects._
Studies based on climate models that are overpredicting warming, plus economic
and sociological models that have even less predictive power.
_> moving coastal cities or engineering mega-projects to combat flooding_
If your coastal city has a problem with sea level rising a couple of feet,
your coastal city has already had a problem for a century or more, and you
ignored it. How is that all of a sudden a climate emergency?
_> your problem has not gone away_
I've already said climate change is something we're always going to have to
deal with, just as humans have had to deal with it during all of human
history. The idea that we can magically stop the climate from changing ever
again is ridiculous.
~~~
chimprich
> Studies based on climate models that are overpredicting warming
Models in general haven't overpredicted warming, as several people in this
discussion have tried to educate you.
> If your coastal city has a problem with sea level rising a couple of feet,
> your coastal city has already had a problem for a century or more, and you
> ignored it.
I'm not at all clear what your point is here. It looks like you're arguing
that because something is changing over the course of several decades it's not
as much as a problem. Surely that can't be it though, because that makes no
logical sense. From an economic sense it's just as expensive.
> The idea that we can magically stop the climate from changing ever again is
> ridiculous.
A strawman argument. That is not what I wrote.
The climate is changing faster by far than it has in all human history, and
probably in the history of our planet.
Dealing with the effects is also much more difficult now compared to most of
human history. When you have 7 or 8 billion people living on the planet,
largely in huge cities, it's far more challenging.
It's just a lot easier and cheaper to avoid breaking something in the first
place than it is to try to fix it afterwards.
~~~
pdonis
_> Models in general haven't overpredicted warming_
Yes, they have. We're obviously not going to agree on this point.
_> It looks like you're arguing that because something is changing over the
course of several decades it's not as much as a problem._
No, I'm arguing that the problem is not new, and it's not a climate problem.
It's a problem of misgovernment and has been around for quite a while. But
that doesn't stop cities and countries to try to get the rest of us to pay for
fixing it by trying to claim that it's a cimate problem.
_> The climate is changing faster by far than it has in all human history,
and probably in the history of our planet._
This is ludicrous. Nobody has the data to back this up, and there is plenty of
data contradicting it.
_> When you have 7 or 8 billion people living on the planet, largely in huge
cities, it's far more challenging._
When the "problem" you're talking about is a degree of so of temperature rise
and a foot or two of sea level rise _over the course of a century_ , to call
dealing with it "challenging" is an egregious misuse of language. This is
simply not that big a deal compared to all the other things we humans have to
deal with. And the things we will need to do anyway to deal with those far
more challenging problems--like how to bring billions of people out of poverty
and how to make our infrastructure more robust--will end up adapting us to the
change anyway. If we're going to spend trillions of dollars on something,
let's at least spend it on something that benefits everybody regardless of
what happens with the climate, instead of on a huge CO2 mitigation boondoggle
that will transfer a lot of money from your and my pockets to the pockets of
politicians and "green" business executives, but won't actually help much of
anything.
~~~
chimprich
> This is ludicrous. Nobody has the data to back this up, and there is plenty
> of data contradicting it.
The data on this are so clear I don't really know where to start if you don't
believe it. I feel your opposition on this issue is ideological, and there's
no data that will change your mind.
> If we're going to spend trillions of dollars on something, let's at least
> spend it on something that benefits everybody
Given I think there's no arguing data with you, I'll try some arguments that
might be more in line with what I guess your beliefs are.
Switching from fossil fuels brings huge benefits. Solar, wind, hydro, small
nuclear plants etc. are much better for society.
Energy security increases if energy is produced locally. Democracies have less
pressure to prop up dictatorships. Smaller countries are less at risk of
getting bullied by larger countries.
Decentralisation of energy production makes the world more stable, less
fragile. Energy policy can be set locally rather than centrally. Regions,
communities, even individuals, can decide for themselves how to source their
power. You can do that with e.g. solar power, but you can't do that with huge
gas- or oil-powered plants.
Renewables are actually getting more cost-effective to use than fossil fuels.
Government subsidies, direct and indirect, are distorting the market. End
government support for fossil fuels and let the market free. There are huge
opportunities for private enterprise in switching society to use the better
technologies.
Air pollution is a huge killer. A study I saw yesterday showed dramatic
increases in death from COVID-19 where air pollution was worse. Even in normal
times, life expectancy and health quality is adversely affected by air
pollution.
A switch to electric transport improves air pollution massively. There are
also technical advantages to electric vehicles, such as improved reliability.
~~~
pdonis
_> The data on this are so clear_
No, they're not. The data are a mess. Temperature records have been "adjusted"
and the original raw data thrown away all over the place. I understand you
don't believe this; I'm simply stating what I believe for the record. As I
said, we're clearly not going to agree.
_> I feel your opposition on this issue is ideological, and there's no data
that will change your mind._
I have spent two decades now closely following the global warming/climate
change alarmism issue. What I'm basing my statements on here is not
ideological opposition to anything: it's the result of two decades of watching
a long con in operation. And note carefully that this does _not_ mean that I
don't think the climate is changing or that I don't think we will need to do
things to deal with climate change. It simply means that I do not trust the
people or the institutions that are clamoring about catastrophe if we don't
spend trillions of dollars to stop CO2 emissions now. Those people and
institutions have no credibility with me after what I've seen them do for the
past two decades, and what I've gone back and found out about what they did
further back than that.
_> Switching from fossil fuels brings huge benefits._
Agreed. But we don't have to spend trillions of dollars on CO2 mitigation to
do that. We just have to, you know, _switch_. Spending money on CO2 mitigation
(unless by "CO2 mitigation" you just mean "build more non-CO2 emitting power
plants") hinders that, it doesn't help it.
I mostly agree with your points on energy security, decentralization, removing
government distortions of the market (I think this is a good idea in every
sphere, not just energy), and air pollution. Kudos to you for including small
nuclear plants, btw; most people don't. The only caveats I would make are:
Decentralized power from solar or wind won't provide reliable base load power
in many places, at least not without a solution to the energy storage problem
that currently doesn't exist except for very small loads. You need small
nuclear plants. Hydro by itself can't really be decentralized, since there are
only a limited number of good locations for it and basically all of them are
already developed. (Hydro in the form of pumped storage powered by solar or
wind is a different matter; for many small scale needs that might be a viable
solution to the energy storage problem.)
Electric transport is great, except for one mode: airplanes. I just don't see
a viable alternative to liquid chemical fuels for airplanes any time soon. But
that can be dealt with by using other energy sources to make liquid fuels,
either by directly powering chemical reactions or by using living organisms
like algae.
------
mooneater
We as a society are in need of a long-term, detailed collective memory of
evidence of credibility.
But that is only useful if credibility is highly valued.
Neither are true of our society today. People both forget what someone said
yesterday, or if they remember then they decide it didn't matter that much
they were wrong.
------
drummer
Roussel et al., “SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data.”, Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2020
Mar 19:105947,
“Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2.”
“Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.”
“Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses.”
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32201354](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32201354)
~~~
jshevek
That style of quotation renders terribly on mobile. Preserving line width
isn't helpful for non-code quotes. You can use ">" and wrap the quoted text
with italicizing asterisks.
~~~
Theodores
Victim blaming!
We need to tell our HN moderator what CSS rules need to be changed to get this
to work on all devices. Plus when adding a comment the syntax for the markdown
should be given.
~~~
jshevek
My intention is to inform, not to blame. :)
Otherwise, I agree with your suggestion [of providing more guidance on the
reply screen] Until a better solution is implemented, would you help spread
the word when you see code quotes used this way?
Edit: I'm not sure that modifying the presentation of code quotes fully solves
the problem, as we still benefit from having two types of quotes, wrap and
nowrap.
------
lone_haxx0r
When mainstream media has been pushing pernicious narratives and outright lies
for many years, I see why people would be skeptic about their claims.
Unfortunately, most people don't have the means (technical knowledge, time) to
appropriately asses the real danger of this situation, so they have two
options:
\- Believe the liars.
\- Don't believe the liars.
It turns out, the liars weren't lying this time.
~~~
Cookingboy
>most people don't have the means (technical knowledge, time) to appropriately
asses the real danger of this situation,
That's only part of the problem. The real problem is that they don't _want_ to
do due diligence. It feels much better to believe/disbelieve things based on
whether they want them too be true or not, rather than actually finding out
they are true or not.
------
argonaut
While this does seem like an attack on those who claim Covid-19 is not going
to be as bad as the prevailing sentiment and the prevailing media view, let's
not forget that the prevailing sentiment 1-2 months ago was that Covid-19
would not be a big deal (in the West). I'm seeing many of the same people who
pronounced Covid-19 would not be a big deal, doing a full 180 and attacking
those who are pronouncing Covid-19 to be less dangerous than expected.
~~~
michaelt
Shouldn't 'prevailing media sentiment' be an _output_ of the journalism
process, rather than an _input_?
------
chvid
"No worse than the flu." How could they feel safe saying such things?
Because in most health scares historically this has been correct. That the
danger had been wildly overestimated.
And even now, it is not clear that "we" have a correct estimation of the
danger.
Recently I read an estimate that 50% of the infected have no symptons. I even
read another estimate that 90% have no symptons. Should the latter be correct
then we are overestimating the danger and wildly overreacting.
~~~
Retric
Anyone saying 90% have no symptoms is simply lying.
China’s case fatality rate is over 4% which is likely inflated. Dimond
Princess tested everyone and has a 12/712 or 1.7% case fatality rate with many
still in critical condition and the majority of positive results showing
symptoms and a high percentage needing hospitalization.
A wildly optimistic estimate of 1 death per 200 cases x 70% infections is over
1 million dead Americans. And that’s assuming we could provide care for
millions of people in critical condition.
------
underdeserver
Remembering predictions and revisiting them is a superpower in risk management
and decision making.
Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardner is a good starting point if you want
to learn this power.
------
watwut
Yep. But I think the same happen with all kind of crisises. The past history
shows, that lying or being incredibly wrong does not have any negative impact
on a pundit or or politician or whole classes of commentary journalist.
It seem to be more of systematic issue then just individual.
------
mellosouls
The article seems to be taking a shot at a reasonably easy target.
Almost all the talking heads are late Feb/early March. While it was clear
something was happening "over there", and the fear was growing, it wasn't
unreasonable _at that point_ to not expect the unprecedented situation we are
now in - and these people are not paid to offer nuance.
I'm not sure this easy soapbox judgement is much more constructive than the
hacks it pillories.
~~~
Robotbeat
It was unreasonable at that point. I'm no epidemiologist, but I understood
exponential growth at that point to know that, because it wasn't being
contained (no measures with a reasonable chance of containment were being
taken at exactly the time when they really had to be taken), there was no
stopping the exponential growth in the near term in the US. And especially
once it was spreading in Italy, there was just not a credible reason to say
"it cannot happen here." You should mistrust people's judgement in the future
on similar such topics if they were dismissive of the possibility of this
happening.
You should update your Bayesian priors about the credibility and judgement of
those people on topics such as this. And that IS constructive.
Doesn't mean that those people are useless, but unless you've seen a mea culpa
from them, you should look warily on future such predictions. You should note
to yourself "this person may be prone to downplaying some risks and
interpreting things over-optimistically, with some amount of wishful
thinking."
~~~
mellosouls
To be clear, these people have no credibility with me already - but your
confidence in hindsight as to the obviousness of the current predicament in
late Feb/early March is not one I share.
~~~
Robotbeat
It was clear to me around February 20-22nd or so that we had a significant
chance of a Wuhan-like situation. I put my money where my mouth was by going
to the store and buying (a single but large container of) hand sanitizer and
non-perishable food at that time (I didn’t hoard, but did buy ahead of time...
before everyone else, thus giving the logistics system time to restock for
everyone else). It’s not mere hindsight.
~~~
mellosouls
Good for you - but it wasn't to me, and I'm not daft; neither was it clear to
the leaders of most countries (going by their actions), and I'm sure many
other people - including those criticised in the original blog post.
------
collyw
Wasn't Elon Musk going to make a website that rated the credibility of
journalism somehow? What happened to that?
~~~
Lewton
Musk is still actively downplaying the severity of the situation. Recently
he's been signal boosting the idea that many more people are infected than we
think and therefore the alarmism is unwarranted
~~~
collyw
Considering the amount of testing that is actually being done, no one has much
ideas of the real number of cases. With any luck he will be right but no one
really knows.
~~~
danans
> With any luck he will be right but no one really knows.
Even he doesn't know if he's right, but apparently that doesn't stop him from
using his influence to push his hot take.
At this point, the only thing that can be claimed with confidence is our
global ignorance of this pandemic, and how much more we have to learn about
it.
------
m0zg
Well, if that's the standard now, then the entirety of the US press is not
credible: [https://i.imgur.com/HGcoZco.png](https://i.imgur.com/HGcoZco.png)
~~~
zzzcpan
Mass media doesn't emphasize credentials of journalists or any credibility for
that matter, in other words it is never credible. It's better understood in
terms of propaganda, like your link is an example of manufactured consent.
------
Jugurtha
Not enough to remember. The shit we have seen must end careers and throw to
jail.
We could be more tolerant if said "predictions" were in late December or early
January. Persisting mid March? That's a threat to national security,
endangering the health and economy of a _nation_. This should be up there
considering the scale of the misinformation encouraging people to be a danger.
Terrorism is the use of violence to instore a climate of fear, sap morale, and
win especially when inferior in number and means.
This is symmetrical: the use of words to instore a climate of confidence,
boost morale and conduct to imprudence by using vastly superior media means to
shape the behavior of people.
Someone should count all the damage this has done in terms of lives, of
livelihoods, of GDP, of wasted resources, and make them pay. People get to
pull this shit because there are no consequences for a catch phrase on Fox
news, and all the braggadocio and tough guy talk must be accounted for.
One of the cases where being or feigning to be an idiot shouldn't save
someone.
------
yibg
I think one of the issues here is incentive. Politicians' incentives don't
always align with those of the population. In this case they can put out a
strong warning and start acting with lockdowns etc or say everything is fine.
If they say everything is fine, then either 1) things are, in which case they
look good after the fact for remaining calm or 2) things go south and they can
deflect and point to other countries that are in the same boat.
If on the other hand they warn of incoming disaster and lock things down,
still one of two things happen. 1) everything is indeed fine and they get
destroyed for crashing the economy. or 2) the economy gets locked down and the
pandemic isn't so severe. But the damage to the economy is still there and
there will be no higher death count that could've happened to compare against.
In this case they probably won't get much credit either.
So it seems to them then start acting early brings no benefits and only
downsides.
------
devy
Fox News deserves class-action lawsuit for their lies and the damages it
caused for making people who watched their news disregarding the social
distancing rules.
[https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-reportedly-fears-
early-11453...](https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-reportedly-fears-
early-114530961.html)
~~~
hi41
Honest question here. I am not an American but watching the scene.
Fox News also pointed out several things that the left media wrong.
1\. Washingtonpost telling in early Feb that public should be wary of
government asking for a shutdown. The video showed that Bill Maher wanted the
pandemic so that Trump gets ousted.
2\. Fox News also pointed inaccuracies in npr’s article.
Looks like each side is blaming the other.
How do you tell which side aid correct. The left too wants to destroy Trump’s
reputation. Left is a hateful group which wants to bury the right.
------
standardUser
I've been amazed at how eager people have been to stake out and defend firm
positions regarding this pandemic. We know this is an unprecedented global
crisis with no good analogies, and we know that new information comes to light
literally every single day. But instead of acknowledging this and taking a
patient and flexible approach, we have everyone from the president on down
taking hard positions about how this will play out, when it will end, how many
people will die, what will happen after it ends and so on.
Even under the best possible conditions, humans are famously bad at predicting
the future. Why then, when faced with a situation that is riddled with known
unknowns, are so many people so eager to declare they know the future? And how
do these fabricated declarations help us in any way? They only serve to
obscure how truly in the dark we are about our current predicament.
------
formalsystem
Taleb elaborates on this idea quite a bit. Opinions are irrelevant, what
matters is your position. Opinions are useless without a downside.
For example, don't tell me that you think Microsoft is a good or bad company.
Tell me how many shares of Microsoft you own or how you're shorting Microsoft.
------
jonnypotty
People are being entertained not informed.
~~~
nurettin
People don't care about the distinction.
------
burtonator
My father-in-law doesn't believe in evolution. He also believes in a ton of
other crazy conspiracy theories.
Now, every time he talks about something political, I make it clear his
opinions are not welcome in this family and that until he can stop spreading
disinformation he's sitting at the intellectual kids table.
The evidence for evolution is overwhelming. If he can't get this basic
scientific fact correct then he's almost certainly wrong about everything
else. At best everything he argues should be held with a massive red flag.
If you're scientifically illiterate you don't get to participate in society.
------
codeproject
We, science-oriented people, should be doing something about it. We have the
power and resources. Politicians are only part of the problem. The ignorant
voters is the major issue here. There was the weapon of mass destruction
propaganda which precedes the Iraq war. Now powerful but ignorant people
failed to stop the coronavirus even though there were stark examples from
china. And we have even a greater challenge ahead, which we can’t afford to
fail again. There are 220,000 people working for the video industry which has
an annual income of 25 billion dollars. How many people are employed to
educate people about the big issue ahead like protection of habitat? Back in
the early 2010s, I did a project which is trying to interest people In keeping
track of politician statements and assign scores to their credibility.
Unfortunately, I can’t find anyone to invest in such a project. I just knew
back then if we don’t change the status quo, the media would lose credibility.
Unfortunately, I was proven right. The “ fake news “ becomes the big news back
at the 2016 election. I am still paying the big daddy to keep the website
registered so that I can brag a little.
------
spamizbad
Honestly if the Iraq war didn't result in media accountability I doubt the
Coronavirus will either.
------
sjg007
I mean we knew before the pandemic that Fox News has zero credibility. We knew
that the President has zero credibility. We will soon see that austerity
promoting economists never had credibility either. We will see UBI enabling a
massive amount of entrepreneurship. We know all of these things and we knew
them before too. Some people refuse to understand these things because their
job And perhaps identity depends on not understanding it.
------
lazybreather
I see much of the discussion is directed towards left-right narrative. There
is an issue of false pretense in the media which everyone agrees to. Then why
make it a left-right conversation instead of staying right on the matter at
hand? It doesn't get anywhere if the argument is about who started it first or
who did it more. That's besides the whole point. And then people from each
group point out individual comments someone from the opposite group made. If
we have a pyramid of "importance", the discussion just spirals into the bottom
and just brings in more and more nonsense. Let's stop it here. I remember PG
talking about 'labels' in one of his posts. It is very relevant here. The
issue quickly gets into a trivial fight between groups who labelled
themselves. And for whatever reasons want to stay labelled the rest of their
lives. Which is demeaning to the very life one has.
------
thereyougo
If everyone talks only based on facts on TV, the world will be a better place,
but they're also won't be that many different news channels.
You see... This shows care about the rating, and keep us informed. In times
like this, when people are watching the news 24/7 they must find people who
can talk and give their opinion. In many cases, the information appear to be
wrong.
------
matthewaveryusa
This implies that the general population cares to know who is swimming naked.
The post truth era is the very idea that the general public no longer cares
about truth. PG is not embracing reality if he frames this around Warren
Buffet's quote. Basically PG is like "hey look at all those naked folks
there!!" not knowing that he's at a nudist beach.
------
gregwebs
And also those that called it early should be seen as more credible. Chris
Martenson was putting out youtube videos in January warning about the coming
pandemic. He has been continually calling for masks as well:
[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaE...](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf)
People don't have the time to deeply engage in subjects themselves to
understand what is true. So we take a shortcut of uncritically adopting ideas
from elsewhere. I see this usually play out as the most repeated ideas coming
from any direction are the ones taken as correct. There is some amount of
ranking of sources: the New York Times or in some cases a professional network
is given a higher ranking. But normally none of the sources are experts.
------
tannhaeuser
I've had this idea for some time already where if you post something news-
like, you should attach a link to your sources, like "citation needed" for
non-Wikipedia text. I know that sounds bland and like basic journalistic
practice - but it is not, nor should be followed by professional/accredited
journalists who of course need to be able to protect their sources and publish
on their own site; it's intended for social media only. The idea is to get
people used to look for a badge or some such at the bottom of a text that,
when absent, immediately should ring a bell and put people on alert.
Basically, it adds a "who said this" or _cui bono_ dimension to every
published text on aggregator sites unless it appears on a dedicated site.
Maybe we could have a competition for graphic artists and award a prize for
the best icon or visual idiom for this?
~~~
brain5ide
How is that different from what happens now with links being added?
Also, journalists (or let's call them news media agencies) often abuse this by
reporting of "claims by this" on the topic rather than the topic and in that
way refusing any iota of responsibility for what they put on the spotlight.
~~~
tannhaeuser
I guess technically it's not different, but if used in a visually consistent
way and followed widely, it could help critical thinking and add awareness to
the fact that there are interested parties and spinsters behind most published
material, rather than invite a habit of passive consumption/believing text
just because it appears on shiny digital or printed media.
------
sixstringtheory
Tangential regarding Dr. Drew. I remember watching Loveline on MTV and hearing
it a bit on radio when I was younger, and remember thinking how progressive
him and Adam Corolla sounded. When I discovered much later that they're still
going on podcasts, I've tuned in a couple times over the last decade but
usually wind up cringing or disagreeing. I used to think Adam Corolla was
mostly funny and made some good points, now I find him pretty distasteful.
What happened, did they shift in their outlooks/politics/behaviors/etc, or did
I and I'm just realizing how they've always been? It just seems like as I get
older, many people in the generations ahead of me are getting crazier, and it
makes me worried that at some point I'm going to lose my grip on reality. How
does this happen?
~~~
koheripbal
I think that may have more to do with how you evolved than how they did.
------
dmitryminkovsky
I've got a sort of morbid fascination with the COVID denial scene on Twitter.
Every few days I check out this guy Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii, 500k+
followers), and it's been interesting to see how he's adapted. This tweet
captures it well:
[https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/124681200696072601...](https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1246812006960726018?s=21)
Not sure if Paul is looking at this kind of thing, but from this essay I'm not
sure he really grasps how fractured the media consumption landscape is at the
moment. The tide hasn't come out from under many, if any, of these people.
Their position is as strong as ever. They have their own moons, their own
oceans and their own tides.
~~~
Gibbon1
You'd probably like this. Compare.
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio on Mar 2nd.
[https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1247210000155643904/...](https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1247210000155643904/photo/1)
San Francisco Mayor London Breed on Mar 2nd.
[https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1247210000155643904/...](https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1247210000155643904/photo/2)
~~~
dmitryminkovsky
Wow I'm based in New York so I've been on the Bill de Blasio beat and totally
missed London Breed. She nailed it. Holy moly. Big ups to London Breed!
(Were those supposed to be two different links?)
~~~
Gibbon1
I tried to make them two different links, one to Blasio and the Other to
Breed. Didn't work.
I feel some of the difference might be due to California's experience with
fires and earthquakes. The politicians have a habit of listening and acting on
what public safety officials tell them. And the public tends understand. For
instance last year they started shutting off the power during high wind
events. They aren't happy with PGE but no ones been calling for the
politicians heads over it.
------
jerkstate
I think that the video linked is unnecessarily partisan. Lots of politicians
and media of all mainstream ideologies got this wrong. At the same time,
plenty of woke progressives were telling us that the US/China travel ban was
racist and unnecessary on Jan 31, and are now saying that it wasnt done soon
enough. Plenty of conservative-leaning news outlets and politicians were
sounding the alarm bells since January as well. Lets be honest, lots of public
figures screwed this up, and it does your credibility no good to engage in
partisan blame games instead of either just shutting up or working towards
realistic solutions that keep us safe and prosperous at the same time as
respecting our constitutional freedoms (in the USA). The world deserves
better.
~~~
theschwa
This is likely the case, but can you site some sources?
~~~
jerkstate
Here are a few examples: [https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-
pandemic-...](https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-
conservative-and-liberal-pundits-underestimated-threat/)
I should be clear, I have no love for windbags like Hannity and Limbaugh but
when you want to talk about credibility, you should have at least a modicum of
self-awareness of your tribal alignment.
------
unexaminedlife
That's not even enough. We need their own words, coming from their own mouths,
to be available online forever (compiled and meticulously categorized). If I
tell someone that a news anchor has a terrible history of stating falsehoods,
why should they believe me? I need to have a URL where I can go to obtain ALL
of an individual's public statements about things, and rigorous details as to
why the things they said were false.
Ideally it would be available via a decentralized source.
AND ideally a crowd-sourced platform so anyone can contribute.
Also we need the government to define different TYPES of news. Opinion-based
and fact-based. Fact-based obviously will be held to extremely high standards,
but the hope would be they would be rewarded for it in the market.
------
silexia
Excellent point Paul! How can we actually do a better job of keeping track of
credibility? There are so many talking heads that it is hard to remember who
said what and who is or is not credible. You almost would need a Black Mirror
style AR credibility score floating in view?
~~~
clairity
you have to hone your bs meter by making lots of mistakes. incidentally,
that's life in a nutshell.
------
qznc
There is plenty of sites to track predictions:
[https://www.metaculus.com](https://www.metaculus.com)
[http://longbets.org](http://longbets.org)
[http://www.knewthenews.com](http://www.knewthenews.com)
[https://predictionbook.com](https://predictionbook.com)
I try to record predictions I find in the news. Most statements by politicians
and journalists are too vague though. You need to get from "more people will
die from COVID-19" to "more than 1.000.000 people will die from COVID-19
before May according to worldometers.info".
~~~
smsm42
Predictions on random internet sites are cheap, worth thing you risk is losing
a little money or some imaginary Internet points. Politicians are in a
situation where their predictions can cost lives, they are forced to make them
- and in most cases, they have no information and no ability to make any
proper analysis of the situation. So they just do what they've done most of
their professional lives - they bullshit away.
------
jgrahamc
Most humans have a really hard time with exponential processes. They are hard
for them to spot and truly understand. So when something goes 1, 2, 4, 8 they
see it as linear and when it's doubling with larger numbers they suddenly get
it. And then it's too late.
~~~
Someone
1, 2, 4, 8 isn’t that different from 1, 3, 5, 7.
You need more sample points, larger multipliers, or prior expectation of
seeing an exponential curve to see that as exponential growth.
~~~
dntbnmpls
> 1, 2, 4, 8 isn’t that different from 1, 3, 5, 7.
What? The former is exponential and the latter is linear. They are the
definition of different.
The 30th number in the first series is 536870912.
The 30th number in the second series is 59.
~~~
ash
> [1, 2, 4, 8] is exponential and [1, 3, 5, 7] is linear.
You can't say just from 4 data points. Real data is noisy. Imagine each number
is ±1.
~~~
nullc
To be fair, people-- even experts (checkout the first 538 survey of experts)
and authorities-- have happily pretended covid19's behavior was linear even
when the linear fit was _many_ sigma away from the measurements...
I agree that it's worthwhile intuition in many cases, but really not here and
even people equipt with both the data and the mathematical expertise to use it
there have also made many bad calls on this.
------
5cott0
There is still a concerted, coordinated effort to signal boost reckless
armchair epidemiologists arguing that COVID-19 is "just the flu" and the
response is destroying the economy for nothing and/or a prelude to
totalitarian police state.
------
esel2k
But without protecting these politicians here - over here in Europe we were
more strict and did not play it down as much. What I have missed from the
medical and country leaders is 1-a median age of deaths 2-death statistic that
showed symptoms according to corona. Just stating infection number doesn’t
mean anything.
For me the homework is not only on the political side but also to the medical
side to present the right statistics - even if it might be ethically
borderline. Because only when the threat is defined to economy, healthcare
system and danger for specific groups then you can do a clear data-driven
decision.
------
WalterBright
"this is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have"
I doubt it. Getting one random prediction right doesn't confer credibility.
Getting several right becomes more interesting.
------
mapgrep
Here are the "journalists" (mostly commentators, actually) in the video Paul
Graham links:
Sean Hannity (Fox News)
Rush Limbaugh (independent, right wing)
Pete Hegdeth (Fox News)
Lou Dobbs (Fox Business)
Tomi Lahren (Fox News)
Jeanine Pirro (Fox News)
Dr. Marc Siegel (Fox News)
Geraldo Rivera (Fox News)
Laura Ingraham (Fox News)
Jesse Waters (Fox News)
Matt Schlapp (shown on Fox News)
Dr Drew Pinsky (shown on Fox News)
Ed Henry (Fox News)
Ainsley Earhardt (Fox News)
I think it's misleading to call this "a video of TV journalists and
politicians." It's a video of Fox News journalists and Rush Limbaugh and right
wing politicians.
------
cityzen
I'll be downvote for this but couldn't you say the same thing about this
epidemic of unprofitable, over-valued "unicorns" propped up by VC money?
"The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get caught. They
didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions. These people
constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things
they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can
bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few
remember what they said."
------
nostrademons
I think this is assuming malice where incompetence may be a more likely
explanation.
I was in the "it's just a flu" camp through early February, and then changed
my mind pretty dramatically a few weeks before the U.S. (or Hacker News, for
that matter) consensus shifted. It wasn't that I held an insincere belief
beforehand; it's that the data initially supports two possible
interpretations, and that as more data becomes available, "it's just a flu"
becomes less likely and "this is a serious pandemic that will result in lots
of life" becomes more likely.
For me, the critical pieces of information were details about what the Chinese
definitions of "mild", "severe", and "critical" cases meant. I'd seen the
death rates by age, which had a death rate of under 0.2% for people under 50
and it going up to 6-11% for > 70\. I'd also seen case breakdowns where
illnesses were described as 80% "mild", 15% "severe", 5% "critical", and 2%
"death".
A logical conclusion to draw from that is that for 80% of cases, it really
will be just a flu, an additional 15% would be a really sucky flu (pneumonia
not requiring hospitalization), and 5% of mostly elderly patients require
hospitalization.
The information that changed my mind was the clarification that 80% mild was
broken down into 40% mild (cold symptoms) and 40% moderate (walking
pneumonia), the 15% of severe cases all required hospitalization, and that
hospitalization rates were not that different (factor of 2x, rather than
factor of 30x) between young and old people. That and some math about how many
hospitalizations that is vs. hospital beds available in the U.S, and the
reports coming out of Italy that made it clear that the high death rate was
not because of China's air pollution or smoking rates (both of which were
reasonable hypotheses with the data available, particularly the increased male
mortality and preponderance of smoking among Chinese men).
On a systemic level, it's entirely possible that the decision makers simply
have not updated their mental models with this new information. There are a
bunch of cognitive biases why they wouldn't: normalcy bias, unwillingness to
look at unpleasant facts, and commitment bias (once they've publicly stated
that it's just a flu it's hard to walk that back without looking like a fool).
There's no need to assume that they're willfully spouting bullshit because
they know they won't get caught. It's entirely possible that they're spouting
bullshit because they believe it.
------
s9w
But both sides are irrationally being confident. The doomsdayers at least as
much as the "flu-bros". I think it's fair to challenge the massive
interventions being taken and the economic damage.
~~~
Lewton
> But both sides are irrationally being confident.
Being "doomsdayer" does not necessarily mean confidence in the situation. It's
more about accepting that overreacting is much more desirable than
underreacting when facing something exponential where you're constantly 2
weeks behind knowing what the reality is
~~~
BaronSamedi
> accepting that overreacting is much more desirable
I wish that were true but it is not. It is entirely possible to take actions
that make a bad situation worse. The consequences of an economic shutdown, for
example, are unknown. The worst case of global depression and supply chain
disruption is just as bad as the virus itself, if not more so. I do not know
how one makes good decisions in a situation of highly uncertain knowledge and
severe consequences.
I think we are in "less bad" territory, i.e. how do we balance multiple
considerations such that while not leading to any outcome that could be
considered "good", is at least not catastrophic. I don't envy those who have
to make such decisions.
~~~
Lewton
When you're in a situation where the severity of the outcome doubles every 4
days and you do not have clear information about where the curve will break,
underreacting will result in extremely bad outcomes much much much more often
than overreacting
For a simplified example just compare the cost of taking actions that make you
break the curve 4 days too early with the situation where you break the curve
4 days too late
~~~
generalpass
> When you're in a situation where the severity of the outcome doubles every 4
> days and you do not have clear information about where the curve will break,
> underreacting will result in extremely bad outcomes much much much more
> often than overreacting
> For a simplified example just compare the cost of taking actions that make
> you break the curve 4 days too early with the situation where you break the
> curve 4 days too late
But does it seem that implausible that cooler heads might find a solution that
doesn't cost at least $20 trillion?
~~~
Lewton
It seems obvious that the US could have handled it so much better and cheaper
if they had not kept ignoring the situation in China and then Italy (which
made Europe wake up)
But even in the situation the US is now, doing something, anything, now. Might
still be a lot better than the alternative
------
linuxhansl
+1000
> Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this is
> the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have.
I have very little hope here. Collective memory does not seem to last more
than a year. The cynic in me believes that once toilet paper is available in
pre-corona quantities again, we'll forget about the harmful mis-predictions.
And if recent history is an accurate indicator, then I'm afraid folks are
_still_ going to get away with lies and false predictions (not to even speak
of harmful actions.)
------
hanoz
_> Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this
is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have. I hope._
PG obviously has better things to do than watch as much current affairs
punditry as me, because people verifiably fail such credibility tests _all the
time_ , there just aren't enough of us keeping a tally, and the interviewers
don't go out out their way to pick the pundits up on it because they're all
part of the same circus.
~~~
mirimir
... or part of the kayfabe.[0]
0)
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22796845](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22796845)
------
MarkMc
Lots of people here are pointing to Philip Tetlock's book _Superforecasting_
which describes these forecasting problems, and also a more rigorous,
scientific approach to forecasting.
Interestingly, Tetlock's 'superforecasters' predict a 30% chance of more than
350,000 coronavirus deaths in the US:
[https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/](https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)
This is up from 17% on March 21
------
techbio
“As of today there are x,y00,000 cases and n,000 deaths reported due to
coronavirus—here to discuss the new numbers is political correspondent Not A.
Statistician.”
------
DrNuke
More worringly, this epidemic is also destroying the layer of benevolent
hypocrisy that kept globalisation together among young people worldwide: the
Chinese virus, the Italian siesta, the Northern stinginess, the British take
it on the chin, the American insurance or die, and so on are the latent
prejudices now rubbing salt into wounds and adding insults to injuries. It
will be extremely difficult to have that utopian, dreamy benevolence back
soon.
------
seemslegit
If the politicians and media outlets editors who downplayed coronavirus in
February predicted they could say it, get a lead time on the market and prep
time for themselves and those with access to better data and estimates and not
generally end up in worse shape politically and economically than if they
admitted the full severity at the beginning and be right about all those
things, are their predictions still bad ?
------
danans
> The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get caught.
> They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions.
There was no danger to _them_ , and a lot of the same old hay to be made from
the faithful in the meantime. The problem is that the "meantime" didn't last
long enough, and now many of their faithful are instead fearful.
------
skrebbel
Not to take anything away from the greater point, but I like that this is
basically Paul Graham's way of making a YouTube comment.
------
99_00
If mitigation works it will look like the virus was over-hyped and was never a
real threat because death tolls will be low.
------
miguelmota
Seems like in today's age most of the content display on TV news is purely for
entertainment purposes, or "infotainment" so to speak. More eyeballs means
more ad revenue. Anger is a stronger emotion than love so news outlets like
Fox News love to stir up drama to keep attracting their base viewers.
------
david_w
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the world, Sweden puts into practice what they only
speculate about:
[https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/covid-19-and-
swedis...](https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/covid-19-and-swedish-
exception-bruce-bawer/)
~~~
cma
> Now, if I were the suspicious type, I might suggest that Sweden’s
> coronavirus policy was, from the very beginning, formulated with this
> endgame in mind: the weeding out of aged and infirm Swedes in order to free
> up residences, welfare benefits, and Lebensraum generally (pardon my French)
> for Muslim immigrants
Read a real source instead of this nazi garbage
------
ChuckMcM
The less you know, the more confident you are in believing what you are saying
is accurate.
It has been my experience that as I learned more, my statements became more
and more equivocal until these days I tend to think more about various
probabilities of what might be correct. I miss the surety of youthful opinion.
------
randallsquared
> _Now that we 've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this
> is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have._
No, this is a terrible test of credibility. Journalists and politicians often
go the other way, amplifying the danger, or outrage, or worry. Taking the
outside view, it's overwhelmingly likely that any forecasted pandemic or
disaster doesn't happen; we almost always get sky-is-falling predictions and
then nothing really seems to happen from the perspective of most viewers or
readers. Swine flu, bird flu, ebola, zika, on and on: these have previously in
media-market memory been hyped as global catastrophes in the making, and then
they turn into localized awfulness. This time, there were many more people
than previously who seemed willing to espouse the outside view that this would
probably blow over, and it seems incredibly ironic that _this time_ , it
didn't go away, and now those same categories of people who have been
previously criticized for fear mongering are being lambasted for not fear
mongering enough...
~~~
DanBC
> we almost always get sky-is-falling predictions and then nothing really
> seems to happen from the perspective of most viewers or readers. Swine flu,
> bird flu, ebola, zika, on and on: these have previously in media-market
> memory been hyped as global catastrophes in the making, and then they turn
> into localized awfulness
...because WHO and those local regions spend considerable time and effort
preventing catastrophe.
~~~
randallsquared
Yes, they did (along with, in many cases, considerable external aid from other
NGOs, etc). However, from a height, it looks somewhat similar to how China's
response to Wuhan prevented catastrophe... It _didn 't_ fully prevent it, but
that was hard to know two months ago for most of the talking heads PG was
calling out.
------
corpMaverick
In case you didn't click. The video is unsurprisingly Fox News. A
disinformation machine. It just got very real. They aren't protecting anyone's
interests at this point and they can get many people killed, including the
same oligarchs that benefit by it.
------
nickthemagicman
I would love to see a project that does fear sentiment analysis of news media
sources.
I go to NY Times or Fox news and it's seems like so much fear based reporting.
I go to NPR or BBC and it seems much more level headed.
Would love to have an objective measurement of fear based sentiment analysis
of news sources.
------
0x8BADF00D
Making a correct prediction is difficult. Especially if you see something the
vast majority of people don’t see. It takes quite a bit of risk to make a
contrarian prediction, which is why the payouts are higher if the contrarian
prediction comes true.
------
sharker8
I agree that there was a certain amount of "nobody's going to watch this tape"
going on in the heads of the incorrect prognosticators. But I also think that
there's a strong 'in group out group' effect. It goes something like this:
Whether I'm wrong or not, this is the 'approved solution' of the network I am
on. And whether I'm wrong or right, we can rewrite this later with a little
help from our friends. In their world, while its not OK to state inaccuracies,
it is OK to state inaccuracies in support of some dogma like "the economy must
go on". That is why we now see messaging coming from the right saying "this
will be over, and the question when it ends will be who killed the economy to
save a few people". And that version of the story is enough to vindicate any
previous inaccurate statements for the audience these speakers care about.
------
nostromo
This image I saw on Twitter really sums up his point well:
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUvf_SmUUAEMRiR?format=jpg&name=...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUvf_SmUUAEMRiR?format=jpg&name=large)
------
yters
I totally agree, and we need to hold all sides accountable, not just the
favorite bugbear.
Thing is, there are credible voices taking a counter perspective, and they
should be heard and given blame (and praise) for their accuracy in prediction.
------
maitredusoi
This is because nobody is an epidemiologist over-night. So now you will be
able to discard any proposition from those kind of people, those one who are
trying so hard to be smart, but that obviously can't become over-night ;)
------
Animats
_" These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it,
because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough
outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in
the future that few remember what they said."_
Neither of which applies this time.
Here's a project for someone who works in the video space. Start with a Trump
speech. As soon as he says something demonstrably false, the image freezes and
a loud buzzer sounds. The picture of Trump shrinks and moves to a corner of
the screen. Then the correct information appears, possibly including a
contradictory clip from Trump. After that, the main video resumes.
Advanced version: do this in real time with machine learning.
Now that would get you hits on Youtube.
------
buboard
Pg should write about what seems to be the real epidemic in america: politics.
When people politicize a chemical compound , you know things are dangerously
wrong
------
Mc_Big_G
Fox _" News"_: [https://streamable.com/l8agkx](https://streamable.com/l8agkx)
------
guscost
This cuts both ways.
------
redthrow
Avoiding news [1] and people who don't bet on their prediction [2] go a long
way.
[1]
[https://www.gwern.net/docs/culture/2010-dobelli.pdf](https://www.gwern.net/docs/culture/2010-dobelli.pdf)
[2]
[https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/01/i_changed_my_mi.htm...](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/01/i_changed_my_mi.html)
------
known
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried
everything else" \--Churchill
------
andy_ppp
I agree with the sentiment, however I think the apparent problems with Trump
and politicians in general around this will not be that they got caught
talking bullshit, it's that voters don't care because we've started supporting
sides like they are football teams rather than being thoroughly critical of
their actions. I'm not even sure a million people dying would lead to
disorganised, slow and stupid government being at fault according to the
people and in fact the higher the toll I'd guess the less likely
accountability is to happen.
------
fulafel
Aren't these just cult leaders? They'll just explain away the outcome as a new
surprise conspiracy.
------
simion314
Disappointingly politicians and their supporters pushed the narrative into
blaming X or Y.
I would politely ask HNers who were in the is just the flu camp to reflect
(please don't comment, just reflect) why I was wrong, what bias or whatever
flaw my thinking had and avoid blaming X or Y for your mistake. Btw I am not
accusing people here, I also was not anticipating things to go like this.
------
threepio
783 comments and no one noticed Warren Buffett's name was misspelled?
~~~
kgwgk
Probably most of us didn't bother to read the thing we're commenting on...
------
classified
> ...to talk confidently about things they don't understand.
Oh, the irony!
------
deepaksurti
>> Instead they just continued to use their ordinary m.o.,
m.o. = modus operandi
------
Dowwie
Paul is referring to Fox News:
[https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957?...](https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957?s=19)
~~~
nimblebill
What about the NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot tweeting in February
([https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/122404315585253786...](https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1224043155852537863)):
_As we gear up to celebrate the #LunarNewYear in NYC, I want to assure New
Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans,
avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of #coronavirus._
And then again in March
([https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/123429834432909312...](https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1234298344329093121)):
_Despite this development, New Yorkers remain at low risk for contracting
#COVID19. As we confront this emerging outbreak, we need to separate facts
from fear, and guard against stigma and panic._
Or the NYC Chair of New York City Council Health Committee tweeting
([https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1226566648729133056](https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1226566648729133056)):
_In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in
NYC 's Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of
"be strong Wuhan!"
If you are staying away, you are missing out_
Or Bill de Blasio tweeting
([https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229](https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229)):
_Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the
town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the
first: thru Thurs 3 /5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc . If “The Wire” was a
true story + set in Italy, it would be this film._
Or does it only count when its Fox News?
~~~
beepboopbeep
Yes, those are mistakes as well. We don't have to delve into whataboutism in
order to point out the wrongness of something.
------
jeffdavis
I feel like, rather than coming together, people are just backing into their
partisan corners again. This is really not a partisan thing.
It looks like California and Texas are making better choices than NY or
Florida. Trump was too slow to act on testing, but was criticized for acting
too quickly with the travel bans. The most credible and forward-thinking
leaders on pandemics include George W Bush[1] and Arnold Schwarzenegger[2];
and their best-laid plans crumbled under later Democratic administrations.
Credibility is a funny thing. For some things, people are very credible but
still drop the ball in big ways. Honestly it's just hard to know how someone
is going to act in a major disaster. I would have guessed that if anyone were
to _overreact_ on a Chinese virus pandemic, it would be Trump. And people that
are highly competent during normal situations might start behaving strangely
and lose credibility quickly during more interesting times (like lying about
masks not helping ordinary people).
There isn't a magic team of scientists that has all the answers. There is a
science to pandemics, but there's a fair amount of guesswork, as well,
especially when China was hiding so much information. Politicians need to make
decisions based on incomplete information. So do doctors, for that matter.
So let's have some humility and realize that a lot of formerly-credible people
are _also_ in the process of screwing this up. It's not just the shoot-from-
the-hip politicians.
[1] [https://georgewbush-
whitehouse.archives.gov/homeland/pandemi...](https://georgewbush-
whitehouse.archives.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza.html) [2]
[https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/31/...](https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/31/schwarzenegger-
shortsighted-for-california-to-defund-pandemic-stockpile-he-built-1269954)
~~~
est
> especially when China was hiding so much information
Or the media rarely report any information because it's Chinese? Search for
covid-19 papers published in Jan, Feb most of them were from China. Some of
the data directly contradicts with Chinese CDC numbers.
------
zzzeek
Might PG have included the critical point of this video is that they are all
_conservative_ voices? Right, that would be too "divisive".
~~~
pjscott
The voices on this particular video are all conservative because it's a clip
from the Daily Show, not an unbiased sample, and _of course_ they're going to
mainly pick on the other side. People on the right are making similar lists of
grievances against left-wing media, and if you looked exclusively at those,
you'd get the impression that downplaying the coronavirus is a _liberal_
thing.
(My own pet interpretation is that political news reporting is a circus,
reality-adjacent at best, and most journalists leave you worse-informed for
having listened to them regardless of their party affiliation.)
------
grappler
Frankly, those of us on the blue side have a pretty good track record. Not
perfect, but pretty good. Then, there is Red America. Let's not kid ourselves
with some kind of equivalence: “oh, both sides have this issue”. It's not
remotely close.
Sure, Trump is bad and his sycophants in the media are bad. But they are
symptoms. The disease is the people who put them there and have been keeping
them there, by not holding them to account: Red America.
------
sagichmal
pg saying something like this without a touch of irony is just (chef's kiss)
------
strangattractor
VC's do it all the time.
------
jswizzy
If you think politicians and journalists are bad wait until you see what the
experts are saying.
------
InfiniteBeing
There are numerous examples of people on both sides of the political spectrum
comparing this virus to the flu and downplaying the severity, but then the
switch was flipped.
At times I've believed that this virus was an absolutely terrible virus, and
at other times I've believed that things were overblown.
I've read and seen interviews of more calm and rational experts and think that
perhaps the original claims were more correct, or at least the response by
governments are more damaging than the virus itself.
In the end this virus' run may end up not being worse or not much worse than a
flu season of a certain level of severity as initially thought, but the future
consequences on our rights and liberties by media induced panic and state
authoritarian measures might be long lasting.
I really don't want to see certain people calling others fascists, nazis and
communists in the future after seeing what they've supported during our
current times.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pcQFTzck_c&feature=emb_logo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pcQFTzck_c&feature=emb_logo)
------
stevetodd
Liberalism and conservatism are essentially religions—there are core
fundamental beliefs to them and a community surrounding it. Rejecting the
political party is not just rejecting beliefs but also rejecting family,
friends, and social structure. The battle has become so much more about red vs
blue, left vs right, that principles and facts are no longer relevant. The
vitriol and lack civility in the current political environment all but
guaranteed this outcome.
Fox News is deeply wrong, but we should all look inward to our own behavior
and if we’ve been unkind or unrespectful, we should take responsibility for
creating this situation. Do you really think that yelling at, shaming, or
embarrassing people will get them to change? I don’t think research supports
that position.
~~~
choward
> Liberalism and conservatism are essentially religions
I somewhat agree but I would argue that it's the Democratic and Republican
parties that are religions, not the philosophies themselves. They both are
fine on their own just like religious philosophies.
It's the people who basically form a cult, give it a name, and interpret the
philosophies that are the problem. It becomes all about growing your cult to
be bigger than the other cults so you have more power. To get people
interested you attack the other side instead of having intelligent debates.
They operate within there own echo chambers.
Most media companies pick a side and then attack the other side. People like
watching other people get very emotional so that leads to more viewers. It's
why there are so many "reality" shows.
------
deepender99
economic crises is also coming...
------
jamsb
HTTPS isn't supported :(
------
robomartin
Sorry, this isn't fair at all and it suffers from the issue that is common in
politics and political coverage, regardless of network: Taking everything out
of context.
The video linked in that article is a tour-de-force of out of context
snippets. Anyone could splice together a video just like that one with
material from any TV news network or politician, from the tip of South America
to the extremes of Siberia and everything in between.
In many ways, and sadly, PG reveals (perhaps proudly) his own bias on this
front. This is very much a hit job on Fox News and the right. One can't claim
intellectual superiority and do this at the same time. Sorry.
This isn't to say that Fox News isn't without fault. They are. Everyone is.
NOBODY understood this well enough to say anything intelligent about it.
NOBODY, from politicians to doctors and, yes, newscasters and celebrities.
What we can say is that nearly everything that was said or predicted during
the early phases of this thing by almost everyone has now been proven wrong by
this cruel virus and its behavior. That isn't an indication of nefarious
intent. Ignorance? Yes. Malicious intent? I doubt it. Political battle? Yes,
likely, sadly...because nobody really understood this thing was going to get
ugly.
Faulting anyone, from Trump to local officials is, from my perspective,
intellectually dishonest and counterproductive. This is where I have a problem
with the media. I am sure the founders did not pen the first amendment with
the intent of providing protection for extreme political alignment in the
media. We have, somehow, allowed this to happen, and, what is worse, we have
not come up with a way to curtail it.
Watching US coverage and press conferences is a display of just how
politically aligned the media has become. Their focus is, 24/7, to attack the
political party they are not aligned with. In order to accomplish this they
are more than willing to take things out of context, distort reality,
fabricate narratives and disseminate lies. As someone who works hard to remain
as neutral as possible, a registered independent who has equal disdain for
both major parties, this is truly revolting to watch. Sometimes I feel like a
visitor from another planet watching from an orbiting spacecraft while the
people below play stupid games to destroy each other rather than unite for the
benefit of all. Unbelievable.
While I agree with most of the observations in this article I wish PG had
taken the time to find real examples of ignorance without resorting to a left-
wing hit piece on the right wing by using an array of out of context pieces
cut together.
While I can't be on a spacecraft orbiting above the US, I can take a look at
what our approach to COVID-19 looked from other parts of the world. For
example, SkyNews Australia:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdKLx5MhTpk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdKLx5MhTpk)
Dr. Oxiris Barbot, Commissioner of the New York City Department of Health
herself, was, for some incomprehensible reason, telling New Yorkers to just go
out, gather, use subways and change nothing other than wash their hands and
stay home if they were sick:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2DetEolgOg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2DetEolgOg)
And, before someone says "you took that out of context" (I did not edit the
video so...), here's a full press briefing where she goes into clear detail
about "no need to do any special anything...":
[https://youtu.be/NEhLOp7UGNM?t=1659](https://youtu.be/NEhLOp7UGNM?t=1659)
I mean, this is the Commissioner of the New York City Department of Health!!!!
I cued-up the video to her statement so you can see and hear it from the
horses mouth and confirm what I present above. If interested, I urge you to
rewind to the start and watch the entire press briefing. If you do, you'll
hear a bunch of good things and a bunch of incomprehensibly bad things, among
which are:
- Just like the normal flu
- We should relax
- We don't think it's going to be as bad as it is in other places
We have been ahead of this from day one • Go about your lives • Go about your
business • There has to be prolonged exposure • Just wash your hands • There
is no need to do anything special anything in the community, we want New
Yorkers to go about their daily lives, ride the subway, ride the bus, go see
your neighbors • We have the equipment • It's not like we are dealing with
something we haven't dealt with before • We have the ability to address this •
We have the capacity to keep this contained • Like the normal flu
~~~
gbpz
Thanks for the sanity. This site is slowly devolving into reddit with out of
context political videos that, while they certainly carry merit, lack a
holistic view of the time period and the media opinion of the time.
~~~
jshevek
One way to push back is flagging, when appropriate. I have started flagging
no-content comments (such as the pun threads) which I believe indirectly
encourages this culture. The site mods are fairly responsive.
------
robomartin
Sorry, this isn't fair at all and it suffers from the issue that is common in
politics and political coverage, regardless of network: Taking everything out
of context.
The video linked in that article is a tour-de-force of out of context
snippets. Anyone could splice together a video just like that one with
material from any TV news network or politician, from the tip of South America
to the extremes of Siberia and everything in between.
In many ways, and sadly, PG reveals (perhaps proudly) his own bias on this
front. This is very much a hit job on Fox News and the right. One can't claim
intellectual superiority and do this at the same time. Sorry.
This isn't to say that Fox News isn't without fault. They are. Everyone is.
NOBODY understood this well enough to say anything intelligent about it.
NOBODY, from politicians to doctors and, yes, newscasters and celebrities.
What we can say is that nearly everything that was said or predicted during
the early phases of this thing by almost everyone has now been proven wrong by
this cruel virus and its behavior. That isn't an indication of nefarious
intent. Ignorance? Yes. Malicious intent? I doubt it. Political battle? Yes,
likely, sadly...because nobody really understood this thing was going to get
ugly.
Faulting anyone, from Trump to local officials is, from my perspective,
intellectually dishonest and counterproductive. This is where I have a problem
with the media. I am sure the founders did not pen the first amendment with
the intent of providing protection for extreme political alignment in the
media. We have, somehow, allowed this to happen, and, what is worse, we have
not come up with a way to curtail it.
Watching US coverage and press conferences is a display of just how
politically aligned the media has become. Their focus is, 24/7, to attack the
political party they are not aligned with. In order to accomplish this they
are more than willing to take things out of context, distort reality,
fabricate narratives and disseminate lies. As someone who works hard to remain
as neutral as possible, a registered independent who has equal disdain for
both major parties, this is truly revolting to watch. Sometimes I feel like a
visitor from another planet watching from an orbiting spacecraft while the
people below play stupid games to destroy each other rather than unite for the
benefit of all. Unbelievable.
While I agree with most of the observations in this article I wish PG had
taken the time to find real examples of ignorance without resorting to a left-
wing hit piece on the right wing by using an array of out of context pieces
cut together.
While I can't be on a spacecraft orbiting above the US, I can take a look at
what our approach to COVID-19 looked from other parts of the world. For
example, SkyNews Australia:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdKLx5MhTpk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdKLx5MhTpk)
Dr. Oxiris Barbot, Commissioner of the New York City Department of Health
herself, was, for some incomprehensible reason, telling New Yorkers to just go
out, gather, use subways and change nothing other than wash their hands and
stay home if they were sick:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2DetEolgOg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2DetEolgOg)
And, before someone says "you took that out of context" (I did not edit the
video so...), here's a full press briefing where she goes into clear detail
about "no need to do any special anything...":
[https://youtu.be/NEhLOp7UGNM?t=1659](https://youtu.be/NEhLOp7UGNM?t=1659)
I mean, this is the Commissioner of the New York City Department of Health!!!!
I cued-up the video to her statement so you can see and hear it from the
horses mouth and confirm what I present above. If interested, I urge you to
rewind to the start and watch the entire press briefing. If you do, you'll
hear a bunch of good things and a bunch of incomprehensibly bad things, among
which are:
- Just like the normal flu
- We should relax
- We don't think it's going to be as bad as it is in other places
- We have been ahead of this from day one
- Go about your lives
- Go about your business
- There has to be prolonged exposure
- Just wash your hands
- There is no need to do anything special anything in the community,
we want New Yorkers to go about their daily lives, ride the subway,
ride the bus, go see your neighbors
- We have the equipment
- It's not like we are dealing with something we haven't dealt with before
- We have the ability to address this
- We have the capacity to keep this contained
- Like the normal flu
These are not statements made by talking heads in news shows. These are the
leaders of the US state with the most cases and most deaths. They are not
taken out of context. And they are clearly telling people to, effectively, go
out there and get infected.
This is the real reason for which places like New York and Louisiana are in
such trouble. Their leadership failed the people. They failed miserably. They
were ignorant, political and just plain wrong. And they got everyone infected.
It's one thing to start with a handful of cases. It's quite another to tell
people to pile into subways, festivals, restaurants and other high-traffic
public environments and effectively help the virus replicate. You then start
your odyssey with thousands of cases, not a handful, which can't end well.
Either we dismiss this as collective ignorance and excuse it as such, or we
don't. Yet, other states took it very seriously. People took it seriously. The
trigger for most was when Trump shut down travel from China. That was on
January 31st. Love him or hate him, an neutral observer would instantly
understand this was a seriously out of band move and one that could not have
been taken lightly or unilaterally. That was a very strong signal that
something was seriously wrong.
For me, that event, added to the R0 data that was coming in, told me this was
serious and it high likelihood of going way beyond China. During the first
week of February I bought three months of supplies for our family. Various
states around the nation started to take measures as well. Places like NY and
Louisiana, instead, decided closing the doors to China was racist and, as if
the virus cared about political defiance, actually promoted mass gatherings
and helped the virus spread and infect large numbers of people.
Yes, I agree with the general message issued by PG. However, I strongly
suggest the article needs to be edited in order to remove the intellectually
dishonest and politically one-sided focus. It simply isn't true and it is
wrong. There's a very direct and well documented link in the video and Twitter
record of who in the US is directly responsible for hundreds of thousands of
people getting infected and likely tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands
of people dying.
This isn't a joke. People are losing partners, mothers, fathers, siblings,
sons and daughters. Let's not lie or distort the truth due to political
alignment and effectively join the very group we are accusing of being
dishonest.
------
known
Next version of #CoronaVirus should infect only Politicians; Earth will become
a better place for Humans;
------
edw519
_Instead they just continued to use their ordinary m.o., which, as the
epidemic has made clear, is to talk confidently about things they don 't
understand._
Those of us with I.T. managers have been putting up with this forever:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect)
------
atomashpolskiy
What a ridiculous zeal.
Hardly anyone at this point is arguing that there actually is an issue. After
all, flu is still a dangerous illness, esp. for certain groups of people, so
even plainly calling this COVID thing "just a flu" is not equivalent to saying
that it's not an issue. It's your framing of the phrase "just a flu", that
makes it look like some kind of heresy or insult.
And, most importantly, why do you call out only journalists and politicians,
while there are many perferctly credible people, - first of all, medical
experts, - who keep saying, that the scale of panic is dumb? How about doing
some reading and fact-checking before crying wolf?
~~~
tigershark
It’s an insult. Covid-19 is in the best case 30 times as deadly as the flu
while being twice as contagious. Calling it just a flu and downplaying it is
actively causing thousands of deaths.
------
aaron695
I'd like a website recording people telling others to not wear masks.
Hold them into account.
------
throwawaylolx
Why focus only on the low-hanging fruits at one end of the spectrum? How about
all the scientists who made doomsday predictions that failed to materialize?
~~~
jacquesm
Err on the side of caution works quite well when modelling things that are
rare but that can have devastating effects.
~~~
throwawaylolx
This is a nonsensical approach unless you consider the damage caused by
overprotective measures such as the rapidly increasing number of people who
are filling for unemployment every day.
~~~
jacquesm
Right. So, in your opinion, how many people would you be willing to give up
for the economy? What ages? Prior conditions? What about yourself? Your
family?
We've been conditioned over the last 100+ years that life - especially life of
white people, but never mind that bit - is precious. So now, when white
people's lives are in danger you suddenly want to go all super rational and
equate lives with paying out unemployment? Good luck with that.
~~~
throwawaylolx
GDP correlates with life expectancy, so you can't separate deaths and economy
as if they were behaving in isolation from each other like you seem to assume
in your tantrum.
~~~
jacquesm
Yes, they are correlated. But they are not correlated in such a way that
you're going to be looking the people that you've just condemned in the eye.
Nor do they have voting family members that will remember that when ballot
time rolls around.
So this utilitarian argument you are making is going to be a very difficult
one to put across and if you feel otherwise about it then it is up to you to
stick your neck out, I want no part of it, and neither do most people. The
argument that the handicapped, aging and ill should be disposed of has been
made before, it didn't end well.
------
eanzenberg
At the time, if you believed Chinese data, and the WHO, then you should have
concluded this was no worse than the flu.
~~~
xster
Media: China's gone mad full dystopia, welding people shut inside their
apartments, stopping trains, removing people of all their freedoms.
Media: tis but a cough.
------
andrewtbham
The flip side is all the people that got it right on twitter.
And continue to make insightful predictions:
[https://medium.com/@andrewt3000/covid-19-and-
hypoxemia-697bc...](https://medium.com/@andrewt3000/covid-19-and-
hypoxemia-697bc8a19bae)
------
madads
Disappointing to see that MSM and more disappointing that even here there are
not more people questioning the data and situation.
Also, where did the free thinking go? Not ostracising everyone that has a
different view than the current world narrative.
There are dozens of sme in virus-related fields that are voicing the opposite
of what govs and msm are saying. This is a great lesson for us all.
Let’s see it dismantle our current “ways of living”. Time for something new!
------
markvdb
Paul, you're absolutely right about the corona virus being the clearest
credibility test fail for these people yet.
But you also write: "These people constantly make false predictions, and get
away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy
enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so
far in the future that few remember what they said."
I'm not so sure about that. These politicians and journalists have consciously
a/b tested their audiences into tribes of absolute uncritical loyalty. They
feed on anti-intellectualism and cheap gut reactions.
At a certain level of responsibility, incompetence becomes malice. These
people are far beyond that threshold. They will soon have the blood of
thousands on their hands.
I'm not sure the people of the US will be able to keep them to account, but I
certainly hope so.
------
dntbnmpls
> What struck me about it was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how
> daring.
Really paul? You are struck by how wrong journalists and politicians are? They
exist to lie and push an agenda. You've written in the past about the shady
aspects of the news industry. And I seriously doubt you harbored any positive
views of politicians.
> These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it,
> because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough
> outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in
> the future that few remember what they said.
They make false predictions and get away with it because their agenda and the
agenda of their fans/supporters line up. This is true of the fox side and the
cnn/msnbc side. Have you forgotten about the predictions of yellowcake? The
predictions of a short war in iraq? Remember mission accomplished? What about
the predictions of a Hillary victory? What about all the predictions about
trump/russia collusion? What about all the predictions that trump would be
tossed from office/resign/jailed/etc?
> And the tide has just gone out like never before.
No paul. They've all been shamelessly naked sun bathing on the beach for
everyone to see. It's not like they are hiding their bias.
> Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw,
I doubt it. Just like people seem to have forgotten what a hack trevor noah
is. In just the last few years, if people cared about being lied to,
everything from Rolling Stones, NYTimes, WaPo, Fox news, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS,
etc would be out of business.
Brian Williams lied at NBC and then got a job at MSNBC. Isn't that nice?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Williams#Controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Williams#Controversies)
I hate to say it but your post seemed more like an attempt to win political
points rather than expressing disappointment in the news industry since you
were already fairly skeptical of the news industry to begin with.
[http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html](http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html)
------
abstractbarista
Honestly, it actually hasn't been materially worse than the flu yet. So this
article's premise is basically worthless.
We have 70k dead as of 3/6/2020 and it's already slowing. The flu kills
between 290,000 and 650,000 worldwide yearly, according to the WHO.
The actual "damage" this virus has "caused", which the flu doesn't, is the
economic shock of everyone being forced at once to not go out and spend. We
have rightly done this to save the weaker among us, at the great expense of
the masses' financial future.
~~~
nojvek
We have 70k dead as of 3/6/2020 and it's already slowing. One would definitely
have to take 70k number with a grain of salt. There are many deaths that have
gone unreported because there weren't enough testing kits. Many countries
aren't reporting deaths because their government wants to save face. Iran
comes to mind.
What's different about this virus is in just a span of a few months it has
claimed 70k deaths. At the rate people are dying, if we just let it run its
course without any social distancing (like flu runs its course), we could have
millions of deaths.
COVID-19 is ~10X deadlier than flu looking at the current numbers.
If we just let the economy go as is, with our healthcare overwhelmed and >1%
of our population dying, that would be terrible. I don't know if I want to
live in such a heartless world. Remember even young people are dying albeit at
a lower rate.
One of my friends who did get COVID-19 explained that its not like a regular
flu. The feeling of having a brick on your chest and not being able to breath
is real. It really tires you and brings your worst fears to life. The worst 2
weeks of his life.
That is not a description of regular flu ^
------
dekhn
I'm a biologist and I have no trouble saying with a straight face that, as of
yet, COVID-19's true health impact has been lower than that of a bad year of
flu. I don't care about TV commenters- by the metric of # of deaths (not
potential number of deaths, or total cost to the medical system, or impact on
economy), COVID-19 _has_ been less than a bad year of flu.
This isn't to say COVID-19 isn't bad, or doesn't have the potential to become
worse. Instead it's saying that i'm shocked we don't take a preventable
disease like annual flu more seriously, and that we've internalized the cost
of all those deaths.
(I know people get really riled up when I say the above. If it makes you
angry, please take the time to write a cogent, reasoned response based on
data, not anecdotes or emotions. We know that people's anecdotal experience
has a strong effect on their personal feelings, and that this is an
emotionally charged time.)
~~~
daveguy
You may be a biologist, but you are definitely not an epidemiologist.
It is at least 10x more lethal and much more contagious. We will bear the
brunt of it in the US because we didn't take it seriously for so long. The
only reason we aren't at 2,000+ deaths per day in the US is because now we are
taking it seriously. That death rate sustained for a typical flu season (4
months) would be 240,000 deaths. This is serious. If we never took it
seriously the death toll would be well over a million. And that is just in the
US. Downplaying the severity of it will get people killed.
Yes we should take flu more seriously. But that doesn't make this not so bad.
~~~
nickthemagicman
You're missing context. It's 10x more lethal in CERTAIN DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS.
The data so far shows that it's the same lethality or less in people under 60
y.o. with no pre-existing conditions which is a huge proportion of the world
and it may even be LESS because 80% of those tested have NO OR MINOR SYMPTOMS
so who knows how many have it and haven't been tested!
It's not even remotely serious at all in that population.
Context matters in epidemiology am I incorrect?
~~~
daveguy
No, it's more like 5-10% lethal in certain demographic groups. It is 10x as
lethal (1% as opposed to 0.1%) in the general population. And there has been
enough testing in some regions to know pretty well. The pandemic is stressing
hospitals wherever there is a large enough concentration of people. The flu
just does not do that. Mainly because we have vaccines to keep R0 1.2 to 1.3.
When we get vaccines it may be even less contagious than the flu. But right
now it is significantly more contagious and significantly more deadly.
------
atomashpolskiy
I commented on this earlier, and my karma is sinking due to all the crazy
people downvoting each one of my comments in that thread.
To all of these people and anyone sincerely interested in the topic I'd like
to post an interview with Dr John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and
professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by
courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine,
professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of
Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation
Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University, that hopefully sheds the
light on the true amount of fear-mongering and plain stupidity in the media
right now:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw)
Here are some of his thoughts in written form:
[https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-
making-a...](https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-
the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-
data/)
As you may see, he is much more reserved about the subject than many of the
people in the comments to this submission.
What does this have to do with PG's blog post? Well, PG's post is blatant and
dogmatic witch-blaming, while the people, that he is blaming, may actually be
right. And they definitely have the right to express their opinion on the
subject.
~~~
jMyles
The ironic part is that Ioannidis has been a hero on HN for a long time now -
I imagine that's where you discovered him, as I did.
And it's not just him - his colleagues Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, who
are presently conducting the first large-scale antibody test have also had a
more sober tone. And David Katz. And Frank Ulrich Montgomery. And Albert Ko.
I mean, I understand that somebody disagree with the matter of how to
interpret a situation in which available data is thin, but throughout this
thread, I'm seeing a lot of people denigrate anybody who is taking a more
cautious approach instead of fanning the flames of panic.
Let's try to stay science-based here, if we can do that.
~~~
atomashpolskiy
+1
And thanks for /r/PrepareInsteadOfPanic, good stuff!
~~~
jMyles
No problem; it's been keeping me sane as well. :-)
Where'd you find out about it? Did I tell you?
~~~
atomashpolskiy
No, I just checked your profile. Pity that there are so few followers, you got
some interesting links there. It's crazy how everything is in the open, but
almost everyone acts like it does not exist (not only with corona, but also in
general). Keep it up, brother!
------
rsgalloway
Here's an article from Mar 26 in the NEJM where Fauci writes that C19 may be
no worse than a severe flu season:
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases
is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality
rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical
consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe
seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%)"
[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387)
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.
~~~
heimidal
Your choice of clipping that sentence is _incredibly_ disingenuous.
The actual quote is “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of
Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza
(which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza
(similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or
MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
They are not saying COVID-19 is the same as a flu, they are saying its
mortality rate is closer to a bad flu year than to SARS or MERS. And that’s
only half of the story — they go on to say that the rate it is spreading is
what is truly worrying even if the mortality rate is low.
Please stop spreading disinformation.
~~~
jshevek
Your quote is better than theirs, but your criticism ('incredibly
disingenuous', 'spreading disinformation') is hyperbolic and assumes bad
faith.
Edit: This would be true even if they didn't provide a link to the source,
which they did.
------
bitminer
Paul Graham has the insight granted by hindsight of 3 weeks to 6 weeks of
facts and evidence. The video cited shows clips from January, February, March,
only one as late as March 15.
And he uses the undefined and unusual phrase "false predictions". What,
please, is a true prediction?
The purpose of these commentators is not news, it is entertainment. The fact
they are talking through their ass is part of their attraction. It is all
bullshit and viewers know it. As does Paul Graham:
> Instead they just continued to use their ordinary m.o., which, as the
> epidemic has made clear, is to talk confidently about things they don't
> understand.
Paul Grahams' analysis is also subject to the same critique:
> let's remember what we saw, because this is the most accurate test of
> credibility we're ever likely to have.
------
hkai
Flu in the US: 0.13-0.28% mortality [1]
Covid-19 in China: 0.50-0.66% mortality [2, 3]
I mean from numbers it is indeed not much worse than flu, but we don't know
the potential extra deaths caused by running out of ICU beds.
[1] [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-
seasons.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html)
[2]
[https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327](https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327)
[3]
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2)
~~~
leereeves
And that's with a century of research and experience treating serious cases of
influenza, and none for Covid-19.
Covid-19 is serious, but the major crisis right now is that it's new, and the
medical system is struggling to adapt.
~~~
fiftyfifty
Exactly, we have both vaccines and ani-virals to use against the flu and the
death rate is still that high? We've got neither of those things for Covid-19
to date...
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
A throw-away project that became useful: minimalist node.js framework - gliese1337
https://github.com/gliese1337/e.js
======
gliese1337
About a month ago, I decided I should finally familiarize myself with node.js,
so I went ahead and wrote a slightly-more-than-basic web server. A month
later, it turned out that my throw-away learning code was incredibly useful
for saving oodles of time prototyping at work. So, I resurrected it and
decided to start cleaning it up and adding features as I find them useful.
There's not much done yet, but hopefully somebody else finds it useful, too.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Show HN: Wake Me Up When It Launches - namuol
http://wake-me-up-when-it-launches.com/
======
paraknight
All I see is a gray screen (Chrome 42 Linux).
Console errors:
Uncaught TypeError: Object.assign is not a function bundle.js:21
Uncaught ReferenceError: ___onError___ is not defined (index):79
~~~
namuol
Ah thanks for the catch. It should be fixed now :)
------
uday11
Website Design looks awesome, but i feel the domain name is quite lengthy.,
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Usenet – A worldwide distributed discussion system - TekMol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usenet
======
smacktoward
Ah, Usenet, where we were grappling with all the problems that today's big
community unicorns like Facebook and Twitter are struggling with 20 years ago.
Those problems ended up strangling Usenet to death, which is too bad; there
were a lot of things to like about that system. Certainly there are things we
had back then that I wish we had today, like killfiles (see
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_file](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_file)).
It says a lot about our industry's persistent lack of institutional memory
that each generation ends up struggling with these problems _de novo_ ,
without reference to similar systems that came before. So we end up in an
endless circle, fruitlessly trying the same things people tried and failed to
do in the past and then scratching our heads in puzzlement when they don't
work.
~~~
chongli
The root problem has never been addressed:
_How do we manage identity and reputation on the internet?_
Usenet had no answer and so it withered. Facebook and Twitter are throwing
large amounts of cash at the problem and enjoying moderate (but far from
ideal) success. What we need is a real, decentralized solution. I'm not sure
how that will be achieved, though I suspect the crypto folks have a lot of
ideas. I would like to see a demonstration of one that is simple for ordinary
users and that works well at scale.
~~~
mikeash
I don’t think that’s what killed Usenet. What killed it was UI. It took
substantial effort to get set up so you could participate. It really thrived
in the era of multi-user systems where a professional could handle that for
you. Once direct connections from PCs became the norm, most people couldn’t be
bothered.
It could have been saved with a good web interface, but almost everybody
working on web-based messaging preferred to create their own platform instead,
probably because it’s a lot more fun and profitable to build your own
community than it is to build a portal to one that’s already there.
As always, but even more than usual, this is just my opinion and I could be
wrong.
~~~
pmoriarty
_" I don’t think that’s what killed Usenet. What killed it was UI."_
Nah. It wasn't the UI. It was developers and corporations chasing the new
shiny, which was the web.
Any UI could have been built on top of Usenet, but instead everyone jumped
ship and on to the web bandwagon.
Usenet also had a big spam problem, but one which was not insurmountable, as
Gmail and other web mail providers have proven. Modern anti-spam solutions
could just as easily be applied to Usenet to keep it as spam-free as most web
mail is today.
Of course, now there is the lack of historical knowledge, as another poster
alluded to elsewhere in the thread, but there's also a contempt for the
average user, and a widespread belief that UI's have to be dumbed down for the
average user. Web UIs could be just as powerful as Usenet was, but
corporations such as Google, Reddit, and Facebook choose to cater to the
lowest common denominator rather than to power users.
Also, unlike Usenet, with these corporate walled gardens, alternate UI's for
them are rare. At least Reddit has an API, so at least there there's a
potential for some powerful alternative UIs built around it, but the ones that
I know of are still a pale shadow of Usenet clients from 30 years ago.
~~~
kalleboo
Usenet was already dead by the time "corporations" like Facebook and Twitter
came on the scene.
What killed it was UBB/vBulletin/phpBB web forums. People who ran blogs with
some traffic installed them for their community, it was easy for people to
just click in and get started, and then you ended up with huge communities
like gamefaqs and Something Awful (and car forums, collector's forums, etc
etc). These then generated lots of content, which showed up in web search
results.
Then web forums in turn got killed by social media (twitter/tumblr/facebook)
and reddit and withdrew to a niche.
~~~
disconcision
something i've never been quite clear on: were web forums killed, or merely
eclipsed? social media brought many more people online; the demographics
changed, by orders of magnitude. certainly the old stalwarts you mentioned
have dwindled (though are still active), but while doing searches i will still
run into active webforums on speciality topics; perhaps ironically i feel
these are more likely for non-tech topics
~~~
kalleboo
I agree that forums aren't "dead" \- there's tones of very active forums in
all kinds of niches. I meant more in the way that they're no longer where the
largest growth is.
------
pjc50
Bit strange seeing something that used to be commonplace dug up and posted to
HN like its the Rosetta Stone.
Anyway, Usenet relies on what I call "Postel Decentralization": a system is
described as lacking a central authority but has a critical dependence on a
few sysadmins doing something manually. In the case of Usenet that's things
like spam cancellation and deciding which groups appears on their servers.
Similarly ancient technology for group discussion is Fidonet, a modem-based
message forwarding system.
~~~
jwilk
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FidoNet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FidoNet)
------
mwest
I recently started reading Usenet again using the free
[https://news.solani.org/](https://news.solani.org/) service.
Once I'd caught up on a.s.r, I couldn't really find any other groups other
than alt.comp.lang.* that were worth reading.
Any HN suggestions?
~~~
Latteland
What is a s r? Alt.sex.robots?
~~~
mds
An anagram of Scary Devil Monastery, the group that by tradition is not named
to avoid summoning lusers.
------
linsomniac
From the admin standpoint, Usenet was pretty good until it started being
(mis)used as a binary transfer system. Once it started using a DS-3 worth of
bandwidth to carry the full feed, it started being a battle between the users
and the admins.
~~~
secabeen
That was part of it, but there were solutions to those problems that were
implementable by smaller providers. (We had a nice split host system, where we
had all headers and bodies of text groups locally, and just called out to one
of the big providers for bodies from the binary groups.)
Unfortunately, once the web came along, usenet became a second-class service,
and slowly degraded
~~~
voltagex_
My ISP only killed Usenet a few months ago (reselling Astraweb). I don't think
it's degraded - just the purpose has changed. It's just another method of
getting high bitrate video and malware from point A to point B, now.
------
linkmotif
Crazy to see this here as a novelty item. It’s one thing to accept that Usenet
is gone, it’s another thing to see its Wikipedia on the HN home page
~~~
mattl
Where else would you link about Usenet?
~~~
disconcision
[https://everything2.com/title/usenet](https://everything2.com/title/usenet)
~~~
mattl
That page is very hard to read on a mobile device.
~~~
disconcision
the last major redesign was in the flipphone era
------
remote_phone
I firmly believe that Reddit is Usenet 2.0. It has everything that Usenet
wanted to do, but it’s more accessible by an order of magnitude.
~~~
lazyjones
But it‘s a centralized service and this is something Usenet wanted to avoid.
------
bradleyjg
Shout out to rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan. I spent many hours as a teen
reading their theories about the Purple Ajah and the like.
------
valeg
Fediverse is the closest thing to Usenet nowadays.
~~~
ryl00
Reddit. For me, it's reddit. And just like back in the day with Usenet, I'm
addicted to reddit...
~~~
coolso
I don’t like your post, so I’m going to downvote you. That way other people
won’t see your post and potentially be influenced or enlightened by it. That
way I don’t have to put effort into responding either.
Furthermore your post lacks both hilarious memes and funny one liners so I’m
definitely not upvoting it lol.
~~~
icanhackit
Yes, there is a bit of an issue with downvotes being handed out just because
someone disagrees. But that also happens on HN - there's an issue with voting
being used as a blunt instrument across all sites that implement it.
But in defence of Reddit, the sheer breadth of content is impressive. Like
/r/skincareaddiction over to /r/showerbeer (NSFW). And the content remains
permanently available unless it's actively deleted by the poster or a
moderator as opposed to being eventually forgotten by your chosen Usenet host.
~~~
u801e
> And the content remains permanently available unless it's actively deleted
> by the poster or a moderator as opposed to being eventually forgotten by
> your chosen Usenet host.
A lot of the commercial usenet providers have at least a decade's worth of
retention at this point for binary groups. They may have even longer retention
times for the text groups. The only thing that would keep a post from being
archived now is having the X-No-Archive: yes header in the message.
------
scarface74
While I appreciate that Google went through the trouble of preserving Usenet
posts - even those prior to the DejaNews archive, it’s scary that its the only
source of that archive.
I found some of my first posts that date back to 1993. I was active up until
around 2013.
~~~
mattl
olduse.net
------
angry_octet
If you used Usenet, you should check out Mastodon:
[https://joinmastodon.org](https://joinmastodon.org)
------
smolsky
"Discussion system", you say? What about alt.bin.* stuff?
------
pandasun
What are some good providers for binaries these days?
~~~
dawnerd
Been using newsgroup.ninja for a while Without problems.
Astraweb is good but I ditched them after they had some drama a while ago.
~~~
voltagex_
Aren't there only 3 main providers, anyway? Everyone else is just a reseller?
~~~
dawnerd
Basically, there was a spreadsheet floating around that showed who was
reselling what. Really just buying on price and retention.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Heroku Subletting – Share the cloud - timmillwood
http://www.millwoodonline.co.uk/blog/heroku-subletting-share-the-cloud
======
tlrobinson
April fools. _Yawn._
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
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Scots language Wikipedia is edited primarily by someone who doesn't know Scots - bdr
https://www.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/igbbh2/the_scots_language_wikipedia_is_edited_primarily/
======
renewiltord
He genuinely seems like a guy who was just trying to help. You don't get to
that scale of edits manually without wanting to help. Reminds me of the Jesus
Painting¹. Sometimes, your reach exceeds your grasp, and it's beneficial for
society to help you out in these situations. So he made a mistake, but his
user page looks like he wasn't malicious. Be kind, go and fix the articles or
RFD them.
Treating this guy like some sort of vandal isn't right. To be honest, it
doesn't look like there are very many Scots contributors, so perhaps it should
just be dumped as a project since it doesn't look like there are many Scots
readers either.
EDIT: Ah fortunately, they've been in touch with him³ and he feels awful that
he upset people². I am glad there are kind people in the world that know how
to help people be contributors.
¹
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecce_Homo_(Mart%C3%ADnez_and_G...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecce_Homo_\(Mart%C3%ADnez_and_Gim%C3%A9nez,_Borja\))
²
[https://www.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/igbbh2/the_sco...](https://www.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/igbbh2/the_scots_language_wikipedia_is_edited_primarily/g2u07oo/)
³
[https://twitter.com/Cobradile94/status/1298321034530246658?s...](https://twitter.com/Cobradile94/status/1298321034530246658?s=20)
~~~
throwawaygh
His first mistake, which should be treated with graciousness and care, was a
case of reach exceeding grasp.
His second and bigger mistake was continuing astride for years even after
several people expressed concern, told him he doesn't know the language, and
explained that his editing was doing real damage to perception of the
language.
It's not right to treat him like a vandal, but the second mistake is good
cause for being a little bit more forceful and public with the rebuke.
TBH it was a failure of the community to even allow the situation to get this
bad.
~~~
Snowflame
The original Reddit post somewhat overstated the nature of "several people
expressed concern." Nobody told him outright that despite what he might think,
he did not really know Scots. That one screenshot'd, anonymized conversation
was the one time something like that happened in seven years - but that could
very easily be read as a criticism of those specific translations, not of his
work as a whole. It seems as if the Reddit OP was the first person to notice
the editor's systemic incompetence and failure to understand the degree of his
lack of fluency. So... no, I don't think he ever made this "second and bigger
mistake", aside from general massive naivety. After being told explicitly now,
he's certainly ashamed and horrified at wasting so much time on his own
personal dialect of Scots.
------
throwawaygh
On the internet no one knows you're a (Scots-)illiterate teenager.
This kid apparently didn't even understand that 1:1 dictionary look-ups aren't
a form of translation, and definitely did not understand/anticipate the
immense damage he was doing. There's plenty of blame to go around, but someone
should've stepped in and stopped this before it went so far.
The striking thing is that this person became a main administrator of the
Scots wikipedia without vetting. Anonymous/Pseudonymous online
discussion/contribution is and always has been an important part of internet
culture. But I've never been part of a forum or website where the
moderators/administrators retain their anonymity. In the rare cases where they
did, there was a good reason (e.g., avoiding embarrassment or sensitive post
history), and the admins at least knew _each other 's_ real identities. Maybe
Wikipedia needs to have a "divulge your real identity at least to other
admins" policy for at least the language-level main administrators of the
wiki.
~~~
ardy42
> This kid apparently didn't even understand that 1:1 dictionary look-ups
> aren't a form of translation, and definitely did not understand/anticipate
> the immense damage he was doing. There's plenty of blame to go around, but
> someone should've stepped in and stopped this before it went so far.
This is also an illustration of the dangers of "inclusionism" (in the
Wikipedia sense
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deletionism_and_inclusionism_i...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deletionism_and_inclusionism_in_Wikipedia)).
It took at least seven years for this person to be identified, and in the
meantime they introduced a massive amount of garbage, at least in part because
resources were spread too thin for a meaningful amount of quality control to
be done in the area that they were active.
With Wikipedia's perpetually declining participation, it would make sense for
them to drop areas where their volunteers don't have the manpower or interest
to maintain.
~~~
arethuza
"immense damage he was doing"
What damage is he doing? As a Scot and someone who is rather fond of Scots
(which I grew up speaking) I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised that anyone is
sufficiently interested to have a go at creating Wikipedia entries!
~~~
fatbird
It's like he created the latin wikipedia by converting English wiki pages into
pig-latin. It massively misrepresents the language, and when you're talking
about a language like Scots that's very little used, and possibly in danger of
going extinct, this is massively polluting to it.
What he created isn't a Scots wikipedia, it's a bad parody of one that gets
words wrong and is completely ignorant of Scots grammar, while sitting in a
position of relative authority.
If you can speak Scots, can you read these as Scots? Does it genuinely seem
like it's actually written in Scots?
~~~
soneil
The reddit thread made a great example of "an aw" being used as a substitution
for "also", so I'll round that example out to illustrate.
In a nutshell, his dictionary has provided him "also"->"an aw", but it's
better translated as "and all" or "as well".
So "I had eggs for breakfast; I had toast also" works as "I had toast an aw"
(I had toast as well). But "I also had toast" does not work as "I an aw had
toast" (I as well had toast).
"I had eggs for breakfast; I as well had toast"; As a native English speaker
you'd find that perfectly intelligible, but jarring.
I'm not Scottish, but I lived there for most my childhood - so I have a
reasonable gut for what just feels wrong. And many the examples I've seen so
far, look like spam that's been wrung through a thesaurus. The meaning's there
but it doesn't make it correct.
------
frou_dh
Apparently the following is the response from the editor. It sounds nice and
mature actually. Hopefully this event has snapped them out of the delusion
they've been afflicted with.
> Honestly, I don't mind if you revert all of my edits, delete my articles,
> and ban me from the wiki for good. I've already found out that my
> "contributions" have angered countless people, and to me that's all the
> devastation I can be given, after years of my thinking I was doing good (and
> yes, obsessively editing). I was only a 12-year-old kid when I started, and
> sometimes when you start something young, you can't see that the habit
> you've developed is unhealthy and unhelpful as you get older. I don't care
> about defending myself, I only want to stop being harassed on my social
> medias (and to stop my other friends who have nothing to do with the wiki
> from being harassed as well). Whether peace can be achieved by scowiki being
> kept like it is or extensively reformed to wipe my influence from it makes
> no difference to me now that I know that I've done no good anyway.
------
danans
The fact that it took 7 years to reach this broad a recognition of the issue
gives you an idea of how many actual speakers of the Scots language are
reading the Scots language Wikipedia.
Or maybe they don't read it specifically because they know it's
(linguistically) fraudulent, and now we know the reason why it's that way.
~~~
ndespres
The first sentence of the linked post addresses this: "The Scots language
version of Wikipedia is legendarily bad. People embroiled in linguistic
debates about Scots often use it as evidence that Scots isn’t a language"
~~~
SilasX
But people were arguing that (i.e. treating Scots like a joke Wikipedia) long
before this whole thing. See this discussion from 2005-6:
[https://sco.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collogue:Main_Page/Archive_1#...](https://sco.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collogue:Main_Page/Archive_1#Is_this_real)?
------
arethuza
For anyone interested in Scots:
[https://dsl.ac.uk/about-scots/](https://dsl.ac.uk/about-scots/)
I have no idea whether it is a language or not but the Doric version of Scots
I used as a child ("loon") is pretty much incomprehensible to anyone not from
the immediate area - terrible punishments were inflicted on anyone unwise
enough to utter a word of Scots in school!
_It 's a sair fecht_
Edit: An example of the terrible punishments inflicted by teachers would be a
_skelped lug_.
~~~
teh_klev
I'm from Tomintoul originally and spoke Doric as a kid. When I moved to the
central belt no-one knew what the hell I was saying and sadly the Doric was
gradually beaten out of me. That said I can still fall back into Doric mode
whenever I meet another fellow traveller from the area.
~~~
arethuza
Out of interest - did they use loons & quines in Tomintoul - I'm from
Portknockie originally.
~~~
teh_klev
Yes they do. My did still uses quine all the time. For me it kinda dropped off
of my vocabulary.
------
abeppu
> Wikipedia could have been an invaluable resource for the struggling
> language. Instead, it’s just become another source of ammunition for people
> wanting to disparage and mock it, all because of this one person and their
> bizarre fixation on Scots, which unfortunately never extended so far as
> wanting to properly learn it.
How could it have been an invaluable resource for the language? Would actual
Scots speakers have used it? Apparently they mostly don't contribute to it.
The English wikipedia page on the Scots language says it has <100k native
speakers and 1.5M L2 speakers and I'm guessing they're almost all fluent
English speakers. How successful would the Scots wikipedia have needed to be
actually used as an information resource to Scots speakers given that they can
all easily use the extremely actively maintained English wikipedia?
It's maybe unfair to make the comparison to a Walmart that sets up in town and
causes all the mom and pop shops to die off -- but when you're the "neighbor"
of a giant, how do you compete?
Maybe I don't get it b/c I don't speak a language that needs active energy to
protect. But I think it makes the most sense to focus on institutions and
organizations that already have an external, mission-driven reason to produce
content (e.g. schools, cultural institutions, governments, regional media)
rather than trying to dedicate the volunteer hours (even when competent
volunteers can be found) to try to produce an encyclopedia that few will have
strong cause to use.
(edited to correct a typo)
~~~
ploika
> Maybe I don't get it b/c I don't speak a language that needs active energy
> to protect.
I do think you're at least partially correct here, with all due respect. I
learned Irish (Gaelic) in school and still use the language a fair bit, though
I don't live anywhere near a majority Irish-speaking area and I don't need it
at work.
The Irish language is not in the greatest of health, and the need for
community-driven content and interaction is very real.
Top-down stuff like TV, radio, books etc are all well and good. They help. But
at the same time it's things like face-to-face casual conversation, amateurish
podcasts and accessible blogs and memes that make it feel more like a
reviving, living language and less like homework.
By necessity that means that you need to include and encourage people who
don't have a perfect grasp of the language. And sometimes that means that very
incorrect stuff is put out there by people who can't do any better, but that's
part of the challenge of trying to save a language from extinction.
~~~
umanwizard
Out of curiosity, what do you use Irish for? Given that (AFAIK) virtually all
Irish speakers also speak English natively, what is it useful for?
(I'm not belittling Irish, btw - I think the effort to keep it alive is super
cool and worthwhile).
~~~
ploika
You probably already suspect as much, but it's not about being useful as such,
in much the same way that most art and culture isn't particularly useful in
the practical sense.
In 1800 more people spoke Irish than spoke Dutch, Swedish, Danish or Finnish.
It adds perspective what the value is if you consider what would be lost if
another of those languages died back as comprehensively as Irish did, to be
replaced by something like English or German.
A whole world of poetry, insults and turns of phrase are opened up to me. I
can understand the meanings of place names around the country (Baltimore means
"the town of the [Downton Abbey-esque] big house"). It's a rebuttal to the
notion that the Irish are really just West English, despite their
exceptionalism.
As for how I use the language; I struggle through novels, I listen to Irish
language radio and podcasts (I don't watch much TV, though there is an Irish-
language station), I talk to my partner in Irish when we want to discuss
something private while in public, I talk to other people in Irish when the
opportunity arises.
------
NelsonMinar
Who at Wikipedia is responsible for fixing a problem of this size?
~~~
howenterprisey
The community as a whole, basically. In practice this will be whoever shows up
to the ensuing discussions at "meta wikimedia" and the scots wiki. The results
of these discussions will be implemented by the editors tasked with overseeing
every Wikipedia (and other projects, like Wiktionary) of every language, such
as
[https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Stewards](https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Stewards).
------
haunter
Interesting how easy to track down this person. They used the same username
everywhere and the first Google page shows their previous username which leads
to basically everything about that person including real name, location,
address etc. I bet some news site will doxx them and make a good story about
it.
------
gridlockd
It seems to me a little bit contradictory that modern Scots is often not
considered a language but rather a dialect, when at the same time it
supposedly is so different from English that merely translating the words with
English grammar intact does it a great injustice. As far as I can tell, the
grammatical differences are very minor:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Scots#Grammar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Scots#Grammar)
Seems more like somebody is upset that no true Scotsman is the chief
contributor to Scots Wikipedia. Either the true Scotsmen must be finding that
this guy has done an adequate job, or they can blame themselves for not
correcting it.
~~~
eyeinthepyramid
Part of the problem that Scots faces is that there are actually 3 Scottish
languages: Scottish Gaelic, Scots, and Scottish English. Scottish Gaelic is
similar to Irish, Scots is a descendant of Old English, and Scottish English
is a dialect of standard British English. People often conflate Scots with
Scottish English.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
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Using Data to Better Understand Climate Change - adenner
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?org=NSF&cntn_id=189519&preview=false
======
josho
After reading this first blurb:
> The year 2016 is on pace to be the hottest on record, with each of the first
> six months setting new temperature records... Climate change, combined with
> the effects of El Niño, is the main reason behind the record-setting
> temperatures.
I'm anticipating the climate change deniers flooding the media next year with
headlines about how much cooler 2017 is compared to 2016.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
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Virus-Tracing Apps Are Rife with Problems. Governments Are Rushing to Fix Them - tysone
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/technology/virus-tracing-apps-privacy.html
======
josephby
Which of these apps, if any, used the Google/Apple Privacy-Preserving Contact
Tracing approach? Why didn’t the Times mention that? Did I miss it?
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Facebook Bots Are Not Stealing Your Ad Spend - kloncks
http://simplereach.com/blog/facebook-bots-are-not-stealing-your-ad-spend/
======
gwern
> The first is that the traffic coming in had JavaScript disabled. If this was
> the case then the JavaScript analytics software would not detect the
> incoming traffic and therefore would not be able to log the result at all.
Did you read their post? To quote:
> Here's what we found: on about 80% of the clicks Facebook was charging us
> for, JavaScript wasn't on. And if the person clicking the ad doesn't have
> JavaScript, it's very difficult for an analytics service to verify the
> click. What's important here is that in all of our years of experience, only
> about 1-2% of people coming to us have JavaScript disabled, not 80% like
> these clicks coming from Facebook. So we did what any good developers would
> do. We built a _page logger. Any time a page was loaded, we'd keep track of
> it_.
Emphasis added.
~~~
mikeryan
_If this was the case then the JavaScript analytics software would not detect
the incoming traffic and therefore would not be able to log the result at
all._
Most Javascript analytics packages also wrap an image call in a noscript tag
to capture hits for browsers which do not have JS enabled. So yes, you can log
the result with JS turned off.
~~~
MichaelApproved
That still won't detect bots. If you build a click-bot, you're probably only
going to click the link and download the source. You wouldn't care about
loading any images so the 1x1 pixel image still won't track the page load.
To track bots effectively, you need to check your server logs. In fact, you
could build a strong case for a bot click if the requesting IP pulled the
source HTML but didn't follow up with any image requests from the page. Not
loading images is typical bot behavior.
------
ryan_f
I was hoping the article would be a little more informative and definitive
according to the title. It is based on assumptions itself with a little theory
behind it.
As for the statement - "The first is that the traffic coming in had JavaScript
disabled. If this was the case then the JavaScript analytics software would
not detect the incoming traffic and therefore would not be able to log the
result at all." You can track incoming requests outside of javascript through
the server. That is possibly what they had wrote.
~~~
nakor
I can't believe someone who has 'delivered highly scalable solutions' actually
managed to write this line on his blog with a straight face. How were you not
able to deduce that the devs likely detected disabled javascript without the
use of javascript?
His whole post is devoid of content and nothing but statements without any
real substance or evidence.
~~~
devdazed
The point of my article was not on how the dev was detecting JS. So I didn't
want to go into detail on it. Even if he did that (which he never claims he
does) He would only see that people are coming in with JS turned off, not that
they came from facebook.
~~~
kordless
He does make the claim that 80% the clicks they were paying for had JS
disabled. That would imply the referrers were set on those requests to be from
Facebook and the IPs hitting the pages weren't registering in his JS based
analytics package. We know he's logging the hits to a file, so presumably that
data is there.
You claimed 'There were a few false assumptions made in the post. The first is
that the traffic coming in had JavaScript disabled.' Care to elaborate on how
it's a false assumption if the implied statement above is true?
I'll give you that he may be wrong, but I really don't see where there's
concrete evidence to support your claim he's making false assumptions!
------
allwein
Here's another possibility that popped into my head while reading this
article. What about browser prefetches? Is it possible that a browser, say
Chrome, is prefetching linked pages and that prefetching is being detected by
Facebook as an ad click?
I'll admit I know little to nothing about how prefetching works.
~~~
xentronium
If this worked like you think, bad things would happen. Think about all the
"?action=delete" or "/logout" links spread all over the internet.
~~~
vampirechicken
Bad things deserve to happen to web app operators who do not protect delete
and logout by putting them behind POST[1] request.
[1] pedantry - PUT, POST, DELETE implement it however you want. Just don't
change database state using GET.
------
learc83
So this article is claiming that 80% of people clicking on Facebook ads have
chosen to use https? Seems _way_ too high to me.
~~~
ceejayoz
Facebook has been strongly recommending people switch this on (a one-step
process, prompted in your news feed) for over a year now.
[http://www.insidefacebook.com/2011/06/02/https-secure-
browsi...](http://www.insidefacebook.com/2011/06/02/https-secure-browsing-
home-page/)
I'd be surprised if the number was as _low_ as 80%.
~~~
alainbryden
I've never received that prompt. If you read further down in that misleading
article you linked to, you would see that they don't show the prompt to all
their users:
> we're displaying this prompt when a user who has not enabled secure browsing
> (through the account settings option) manually changes their browser's
> address bar to <https://>, which does not fully protect their Facebook
> traffic.
I just had to go hunting through privacy and security settings for 5 minutes
to figure out how to enable HTTPS.
So no, I would guess fewer than 0.1% of Facebook users have this enabled.
~~~
ceejayoz
It's a year-old article. My company builds (among other things) Facebook apps
and we definitely receive this alert these days on test accounts that are
purely accessing via HTTP.
------
rfergie
All the Facebook campaigns I have run use url parameter tagging to track
clicks (i.e. for Google Analytics append &utm_source=facebook...) to the url.
I think this is fairly standard practice so it seems unlikely to me that
they'd have to use the referrer exclusively
~~~
devdazed
I've checked a handfull of the facebook ads and I didn't find any querystring
paramete attached.
------
bimr
Umm... the facebook post already stated that javascript analytics could only
verify 20% of the traffic. They also explained that they wrote their own
analytics sans javascript to verify that javascript was disabled.
How did he miss that? Self-inflicted black-eye for simplereach.com
| {
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Why do GIMP developers hate you? - C-Rogers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBmdbipkbrk
======
C-Rogers
You came, you saw, you complained! Pat David of the GIMP project takes you
through exactly why the GIMP project hates you! (new GIMP features walkthrough
at the end) Thanks to Mc for clipping this out of an 8+hour SCaLE vid. :D
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
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Ask HN: What do Germans invest their savings in? - scottmcdot
======
tradersam
Why do you wanna know?
~~~
scottmcdot
Seems like they're generally averse to stock investing [1] and from my
experiences living there I never heard of anyone investing in property. Banks
are offering basically 0% interest - where are they putting their savings?
[1] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-09-30/why-
dont-...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-09-30/why-dont-germans-
invest-in-stocks-businessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
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Chat Systems - kevlar1818
https://xkcd.com/1810/
======
tominous
This was a solved problem 15 years ago with multi-protocol clients like LICQ,
Gaim/Pidgin and Trillian. Maybe it's harder these days to keep up with the
engineers at Facebook, Google and Microsoft but surely simple texting can't be
that hard.
I note that the Slashdot submission [1] of this link suggests we need a new,
universal protocol, to which the only answer is another XKCD comic [2].
[1] [https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/03/13/2054207/ask-
slashdot...](https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/03/13/2054207/ask-slashdot-how-
would-you-solve-the-instant-messaging-problem)
[2] [https://xkcd.com/927/](https://xkcd.com/927/)
| {
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Why linux doesn't have a "wheel" group - j_baker
http://administratosphere.wordpress.com/2007/07/19/the-wheel-group/
======
kwantam
A simpler explanation is that many Linux distributions discourage the use of
su altogether in favor of sudo, which gives you finer grained control over
this sort of thing than wheel ever did.
In any case, if you really care, just enable pam_wheel.so in your pam
configuration for su (usually /etc/pam.d/su) and be sure to add yourself to
the appropriate group.
~~~
sudonim
Ironically, "sudo su" works really well if you do need to get to root. But
yeah, "sudo" is a much safer practice.
~~~
kwantam
I sudo su very frequently because I'm almost always executing more than one
command as root. Standard warnings apply, but my approach for being sure that
I am who I think I am is to put my username in my prompt and color code it so
that when I'm root the username turns red.
I also color code the hostname so that I can tell at a glance what machine I'm
on.
For example,
export PS1='[\[\033[1;34m\]\u\[\033[0m\]@\[\033[1;30m\]\h\[\033[0m\] $newPWD]\$ '
where $newPWD is a friendly, shortened $PWD.
On that same machine, the root prompt is identical except that the color is
set to 1;31m instead of 1;34m, which makes it bright red.
~~~
silvestrov
No need for 'su' to get a root shell. You can use 'sudo -s' for that, and you
still set a root-specific PS1 in the bashrc file.
~~~
thwarted
This doesn't always run the same rc scripts (depending on the shell and local
convention). I'm used to typing sudo su - (with optional username) to get the
environment as close as possible to what it would be if I logged in as the
target user.
~~~
pilif
sudo -s launches a shell in non interactive mode (which goes through .bashrc
or .zshenv and .zshrc depending on your shell) whereas sudo -i emulates a
usrer login which puts the shell in interactive mode (.profile, .zshenv)
Also -i does more stuff to simulate a login like setting $HOME and cd'ing
there.
Usually you might want to use sudo -i or 'su -' which both simulate a login.
But sudo su - really isn't needed any more since -i has been added
~~~
thwarted
Old habits die hard.
------
jerf
It's actually interesting to consider Stallman's point. In a way, his ideals
are ultimately incompatible with shared systems. A user should have their own
resources if they're going to be Free. You can't have all of shared resources,
security, and total Freedom in the sense of Stallman.
Application to the swing back to "cloud computing", multiuser computing's
latest moniker, left as an exercise for the reader.
~~~
gst
Don't forget that this info page was written something like 20 years ago - or
even earlier.
At this time security requirements where completely different than today and
it was not unusual for everyone in a lab to have root access to the machines.
~~~
rbanffy
I really miss the time when you could assume that, if someone had access to
your computer, he or she was qualified to properly operate it.
~~~
dmcg
I really miss the time when I felt that I was properly qualified to operate my
computer.
------
qntm
I'm not sure I understand Stallman's comment. He is against letting "a few of
the users ... hold total power over the rest". Isn't that the whole point of a
system administrator? He seems to be explicitly in favour of making it so that
a leaked root password will allow any user to run riot over the system. Is he
an anarchist? Or did they not have malicious users or idiots in 1984? I
admittedly know almost nothing about system administration.
~~~
hvs
From "Free as in Freedom: Richard Stallman's Crusade for Free Software":
\---
_"The hackers who wrote the Incompatible Timesharing System decided that file
protection was usually used by a self-styled system manager to get power over
everyone else," Stallman would later explain. "They didn't want anyone to be
able to get power over them that way, so they didn't implement that kind of a
feature. The result was, that whenever something in the system was broken, you
could always fix it."_
_Through such vigilance, hackers managed to keep the AI Lab's machines
security-free. Over at the nearby MIT Laboratory for Computer Sciences,
however, security-minded faculty members won the day. The LCS installed its
first password-based system in 1977. Once again, Stallman took it upon himself
to correct what he saw as ethical laxity. Gaining access to the software code
that controlled the password system, Stallman implanted a software command
that sent out a message to any LCS user who attempted to choose a unique
password. If a user entered "starfish," for example, the message came back
something like:_
_I see you chose the password "starfish." I suggest that you switch to the
password "carriage return." It's much easier to type, and also it stands up to
the principle that there should be no passwords._
~~~
qntm
I can't conceive of a world where "there should be no passwords" or "keep
these machines security-free" were ever serious positions held by software
engineers. It's Garden of Eden thinking.
~~~
sp332
It wasn't a rationally-considered position, it was a reaction against the
strict hierarchy and batch processing mentality of the time. (Disclaimer:
everything I know about this I learned from Stephen Levy's book _Hackers_.)
The admins of these machines would flaunt their power over the users, and were
very antagonistic toward the hackers who wanted to do "cool" stuff on the
computers. So, keeping the machines security-free and not allowing passwords
was actually necessary to promote the idea that anyone could run a program on
the computer, because that was not the _status quo_.
The fear that someone would take control and abuse power in that way was not
an unfounded one.
~~~
illumin8
Right, perhaps it was a different time, but you need to limit the power of
most users, especially in a school setting, or you cannot maintain the uptime
of the system for everyone.
I know in our computer lab in high school, which was a series of x86 PCs
donated by Novell and sharing files from a Netware file server (this was
1989-1990), we used to try to get superuser privileges on the Netware server.
Once or twice, the 20 year old kid they hired as a sysadmin would walk away
from his desk and forget to logout of his workstation, and we would give
ourselves superuser privileges on the network. We would use this privilege to
play "Snipes," one of the first network based multiplayer text shooter games.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snipes>
This fun lasted for a few hours until the 20 year old sysadmin determined we
had superuser privs that we shouldn't have and promptly revoked our rights.
~~~
bruce511
ha ha - that's funny. We had a very similar setup at the same time - the
workstations were "diskless" and the only way to get software onto the machine
was to write it (in Turbo Pascal). The workstations were 8086's while the file
server was a 286, and the other server was a (then very expensive) 386.
But the admins had installed "NetWork Eye" - sort of like a VNC for text
monitors. So one guy in the class wrote an assembler (in TP) then got a
NetBios book and wrote some low-level NetBios stuff in assembler. That allowed
us to NetWork-Eye the servers to get some other funky stuff done.
One thing we did was to login on all 50 workstations (except one), and run the
network eye in a cascaded chain. Then sit back and watch the first person come
in. They're log in (on all 50 monitors simultaneously) and everything they did
would come up on all 50. Usually took a few minutes before they noticed...
Ahh - good times.... <g>
------
njharman
> limits the number of people who are able to su to root.
Is irrelevant and archaic for many, many servers (99%) of ones I've worked on
last 20yrs (web/internet servers vs file/print/lan type servers.
The only accounts who can login and get a shell are the same set of accounts
who can su root to almost every server I'm involved with.
~~~
ora600
As a database consultant I can assure you there are great many servers on
which I have a user, but no ability to "su root".
~~~
bigiain
I bet if you were an "evil database consultant", you could get yourself a root
shell on _many_ of those servers with a little bit of google fu. There is a
startling amount of exploitable code waiting in just about every standard OS
install for anybody with regular user privileges.
~~~
ora600
If I was evil and suicidal I could wipe up many companies by "drop database
including backup".
When you have DBA access to production databases, lack of root does not stand
in the way of doing evil.
It does stand in the way of using message logs to troubleshoot, checking
contents of /proc to determine which directory a process is running from,
tuning TCP parameters to maximize data transfer rates without nagging the
sysadmins, etc.
~~~
bigiain
True. But a _properly evil_ non-suicidal and supremely confident evil DBA
could, if they wanted too, exploit the box from a local user account, rootkit
it, and tidy up after themselves to remove all trace of who did it. I suspect
that's actually script-kiddy-able these days, if you know the target well
enough there's probably an automated tool ready to do all that for you.
(For evil-genius-DBA's bonus points for doing that via the database instead of
the shell and censoring traces from the db logs too...)
------
cagenut
Ironically the "wheel" construct is alive and well via sudo. The default
/etc/sudoers for rhel/centos/fedora systems has a line that allows anyone in
the wheel group the ability to run anything they want through sudo, its just
commented out. Delete one character and voila, you can give and retract root
privs via adding and removing users from the wheel group.
~~~
__david__
I noticed recently that my Debian now comes with a "sudo" group that is
effectively the same thing.
------
rg3
In my Slackware system, which does not use PAM by the way, it's perfectly
possible to support the "wheel" group. In fact, the group is already present
in /etc/groups and you can add users to it. Later, you don't need to change
the permissions of /bin/su. The check can be run from the program itself if
you edit /etc/suauth and add a line like this:
root:ALL EXCEPT GROUP wheel:DENY
But I think this may be due to the "su" program not being GNU su, but the one
from the shadow suite. :)
------
bcl
The title is incorrect on several levels. Not the least of which is that it is
the distributions that determine whether to use wheel, not the Linux kernel.
For example, in Fedora 15 we are now using wheel to add users as
administrators who are able to sudo to root. This is easily enabled by
checking the 'Administrator' box during firstboot's setup of the user account.
------
perlgeek
Nitpick about the title: "linux" is a kernel and doesn't care about how the
userspace organizes its groups.
It's really about GNU su.
------
benwr
So why allow for a root password in GNU at all? Is Stallman really saying that
everyone should have root access?
If you accept that there's a use for a secret root password (which, I assume,
Stallman has; otherwise why write an `su` at all?), having no wheel group
would seem to encourage a /single/ admin with the password, to prevent the
leaking of info he mentions. Which is more tyrannous?
~~~
Someone
su has uses even when everyone knows the root password. It allows you to run a
command as a different user without logging out.
I also am not sure that Stallman accepted the need for passwords at all when
he wrote that text. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Stallman>:
"When MIT's Laboratory for Computer Science (LCS) installed a password control
system in 1977, Stallman found a way to decrypt the passwords and sent users
messages containing their decoded password, with a suggestion to change it to
the empty string (that is, no password) instead, to re-enable anonymous access
to the systems"
------
marshray
This logic only makes the tiniest bit of sense if 'su' is the only way
escalate privileges. Almost every real system has many ways to escalate,
especially for someone who already knows the root password. telnet, sudo, X11,
ftp, and last but not least, 'login'.
"OK", you say "maybe all those are turned off for root". Well, even then there
are likely many other accounts with some degree of privilege. Often these can
be leveraged to root access. For example: the members of the wheel group.
------
dryicerx
The etymology of the company WheelGroup (now aquired by Cisco) makes a lot
more sense now... <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WheelGroup>
------
doki_pen
Strange, most distros I've used do have wheel. I think it's only Debian based
distros that don't.
~~~
loulan
I've used Gentoo for years and it used the "wheel" group. Maybe it has changed
now, though.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
8 facts that explain Google's complex situation with Chrome OS - stevep2007
http://www.networkworld.com/article/3000670/mobile-wireless/why-google-is-committed-to-chrome-os.html
======
stevep2007
This explainer puts Android and the Chrome OS into perspective and shows why
these Linux derivatives will both come together and remain separate.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Med Student Rescues Body Part From Airport Security - colinprince
http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/06/19/155301289/med-student-rescues-body-part-from-airport-security
======
andos
I was reading this like any other ordinary story. Then I got to this part:
Amazingly, he doesn't do transplants anymore.
Tracheas, he has decided, can be regenerated
from scratch, using stem cells.
It brought tears to my eyes. No amount of bad news can weaken the beauty
contained in that little paragraph. This made my day, really.
~~~
timr
There are _so many_ angles to this story that involve the tension between the
forces of conservative thinking, and innovators who are trying to make the
world a better place. Ignore the idiotic airport security problem, and you're
still left with an amazing, improbable story about the world-changing
consequences of an emerging technology that religious luddites keep trying to
destroy.
Only a few short years ago, our society was getting its collective panties in
a knot over the ethics of stem cell research. The US president made a strong
movement to _kill_ that research in the womb (pardon the pun). At the time,
nobody could convincingly enumerate the medical benefits of the work...because
it was research. Now we're synthesizing body parts. Amazing. How many years of
human life will be saved? There's no upper limit. "Pro-life", indeed.
Save this story, and use it the next time you're in an argument with someone
who wants to stop pure intellectual exploration in the name of vague,
supernatural objections.
(Edit: Yes, these particular organs are being synthesized from _adult_ stem
cells, not _embryonic_ stem cells. But it's a distinction without a difference
-- we cannot predict what advancements or understanding will come from any
given line of research. The argument is greater than the adjective.)
~~~
Turing_Machine
These aren't embryonic stem cells. No one has a problem with adult stem cells
(well, I suppose the folks who refuse all forms of medical treatment might).
~~~
timr
_"No one has a problem with adult stem cells."_
Untrue. There are/were plenty of groups who object to _all_ stem cell
research. Embryonic cells are just the most controversial segment. (Consider
this thought experiment: take a fully differentiated human cell, and transform
it such that it is capable of generating a embryo. Do you think this won't
generate objections on religious grounds?)
The heart of the debate is that our knowledge is pushing relentlessly against
the darkness of superstition, and that makes some people uncomfortable -- just
as every scientific advancement has made people uncomfortable. We're just in a
sad period where these people have greater influence over our society's
decisions.
~~~
Turing_Machine
"There are/were plenty of groups who object to all stem cell research."
Can you name a few? Thanks. To the best of my knowledge, no major religious
group opposes adult stem cell research.
~~~
timr
How about bishops in the Catholic Church?
<http://www.lifenews.com/2006/08/23/bio-1727/>
_'Richard Doerflinger of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, an expert
on bioethics issues, told the Associated Press the research "raises more
ethical questions than it answers."..."It is widely believed that one cell of
a very early embryo may separate and become a new embryo, an identical twin,"
Doerflinger told the Associated Press.'_
Here's another response to the same experiment, which better captures the root
of the objections:
<http://cathnews.acu.edu.au/608/140.html>
_'"Regardless of the speculated benefits, no human being, particularly the
most vulnerable, should be treated as raw material which we can manipulate and
manufacture," Mr O'Gorman said.'_
~~~
Turing_Machine
That has nothing whatsoever to do with adult stem cells.
Did you miss the part that was talking about embryos or what?
Update: try this
[http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.ph...](http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=43670)
If you think the Catholic Church is opposed to adult stem cell research,
you're simply misinformed.
~~~
timr
It has everything to do with them: there's no such thing as an "adult" stem
cell. There are only differentiated and undifferentiated cells, and
"embryonic" is a useful description only insofar as it describes the source of
origin of an established cell line. The techniques that those quotes were
concerning don't destroy embryos -- they turn differentiated cells into
undifferentiated cells -- but that's enough to trigger the objections.
Said another way, there's _no fundamental reason_ that "adult" stem can't be
converted to an "embryonic" state. And the quotes above illustrate that once
you do that, you run afoul of the opponents. The religious groups don't want
to prohibit "embryonic" stem cell research; they want to prevent anyone from
doing any sort of science that they perceive to be in violation of their
notion of human-being-ness. Science doesn't support the distinctions that
they're making, and therefore, the conflict is unresolvable.
~~~
Turing_Machine
Now you're just arguing for the purpose of arguing.
The official doctrine of the Catholic Church supports adult stem cell
research. That's just a fact. Sorry.
------
ajb
The security professions need to learn a lesson which doctors have understood
for some time now: treating everyone for a rare threat does more harm than
good.
Suppose there is a drug which prevents heart attacks, but due to side effects,
rare reactions, or just plain error, causes damage to a small proportion of
people. If you have a 50% chance of a heart attack, taking it would be a good
bet. But giving the same drug to everyone would be a medical disaster. Any
treatment you give to a broad population had better be extraordinarily safe.
The rarer the threat you are trying to address, the more easily you can do
more harm than good.
Terrorism is rare.
~~~
sausagefeet
I think there is a flip side of it too:
Fliers need to make it clear that they are OK with the fact that if they want
to be treated better, security will not catch all security risks.
~~~
ajb
Yes and no. Think of it this way: if you have a graph of security against
cost, there is a line which represents possible tradeoffs of best security for
a given cost. You are saying, we need to think about where we want to be on
the line. _I don't think we are even on the line_.
------
iwwr
We are starting to see glimpses of the hidden costs of airport security.
Consider just that by discouraging flight, more people end up dead on the
(vastly more) insecure roads.
------
jgamman
i think there's a lesson here in risk management. the obviously brilliant
doctor failed to put care and attention into the mundane delivery part of the
process. there are no small details. Jet Star is a low price, zero premium
service. for the cash/time invested, they should have being going business
class with a premium airline, a signed piece of letterhead and if possible,
hired an airline rep to walk them in one airport and out the other. someone's
life hung on the balance of a student knowing a pilot...
~~~
beambot
To quote, " _That done, Birchall's team booked the only direct flight from
Bristol to Barcelona, operated by an airline called easyJet._ " Thus, your
"business class with a premium airline" doesn't (appear) to have been
feasible.
~~~
teamonkey
Bristol is only 2 hours drive from London.
------
vacri
Strange that the article title refers to a bit of high drama rather than "we
can make replacement tracheas from scratch now!"
~~~
marquis
It is a sad day that speaks volumes about the world we live in now, that we
encounter an article on such an important, ground-breaking topic, and it's
titled 'Airport security refuses transport'.
~~~
mikeash
It's possible to have multiple news articles concentrating on different
aspects of the same event. I bet there are other articles out there that
concentrate on the medical research. Not everything out there has to cover
only the most important stuff.
~~~
saraid216
A quick search through Google News says those hypothetical articles are rather
hard to find.
~~~
mikeash
Try searching 2008, when the procedure actually occurred, and you'll find
quite a few.
------
tokenadult
Previous submission, no comments:
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4135224>
(Neither this nor the previous submission submitted the canonical URL, which
helps the HN duplicated detector do its job.)
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4111691>
~~~
catch23
I hadn't seen it before. Reposts are not necessarily bad, if there are no
comments, nobody saw the post, thus a repost is necessary. Perhaps the de-dup
mechanism shouldn't incorporate comment-less posts as part of its data set.
------
kba
Med student rescues body part? More like German pilot.
~~~
kristianp
Or Med student who knows the right person.
~~~
sp332
This is what highly-connected networks of ridiculously rich and privileged
people are actually good for!
~~~
pacaro
True, although in the UK, there is no reason to believe that a med student is
"ridiculously rich and privileged".
------
adventureful
The stem cell century accelerates.
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
Show HN: HTML5 clone of OS X AirDrop – Easy P2P file transfers in a browser - szimek
https://www.sharedrop.io/
======
skrowl
It sounded interesting until: Allow www.sharedrop.io to run "Adobe Flash"?
Then: We're really sorry, but your browser is not supported. Please use the
latest Chrome for Desktop or Android or Opera. Firefox support is coming soon!
So basically, this is a webkit app, not a HTML5 app?
~~~
szimek
No idea why it asked for Flash.
At this moment the app works only in Chrome and Opera, because Firefox doesn't
support HTML5 FileSystem API. There's a polyfill for that, but we had some
issues with it, so we've decided to release it anyway. We'll continue working
on Firefox support. The whole source code is available on GitHub
([https://github.com/cowbell/sharedrop](https://github.com/cowbell/sharedrop)),
so anyone can help.
~~~
alexjh
I'm running Chrome version 26.0.1410.63 on Linux, and I'm getting the not
supported error message. Is there a minimum Chrome version?
~~~
szimek
I think it worked since 32. The current stable Chrome version is 33.
------
NathanKP
This is really amazing! I had a bit of trouble on my first attempt because I
was connected to a VPN, so ShareDrop was considering me to be in the 10.*
range (my local IP address on the VPN) while my coworker on the same router
showed up in the 192.* range. I was able to send him a file, but he obviously
couldn't send me one back because he wasn't connected to the same VPN.
Once I disconnected from the VPN then ShareDrop starting using my local 192.*
IP address instead of my remote VPN address and it worked both ways.
~~~
conductor
Does this mean that any JavaScript code can determine the client's local IP
addresses? Then it can be used for identification, I think browsers should let
the users white-list the sites which are allowed to use WebRTC.
~~~
szimek
It seems so. I was a bit surprised myself, but this data is taken from the
info that browsers send to each other to determine the best path for P2P
connection. The actual code for determining local IP is taken from
[http://net.ipcalf.com](http://net.ipcalf.com).
------
0x0
Cool, but one major advantage to airdrop is that it doesn't require a local
network at all, so you can airdrop even without any wifi AP in range.
~~~
szimek
Sure, we mention it even in the README
([https://github.com/cowbell/sharedrop/blob/master/README.md](https://github.com/cowbell/sharedrop/blob/master/README.md)).
There's probably a workaround if you have a phone with internet access - you
could create a local WiFi network on it and connect to ShareDrop through it.
Haven't tried it though.
~~~
katowulf
And one advantage to this is that it anything that can view a web page can
reach it. I don't have to ask my grandma to install an app on her phone to get
a picture on her desktop computer from me : )
------
nashashmi
I believe the people of Qatar will have an issue with this because they all
use a single public IP address. So any Qatari could send a another Qatari a
file if they were all to log on.
------
utopkara
Noob question: It seems like websockets is more appropriate for sending files
to peers, why would they go for webrtc?
~~~
arcameron
No central server to intercept the file in transit
------
headShrinker
"We're really sorry, but your browser is not supported. Please use the latest
Chrome for Desktop or Android or Opera. Firefox support is coming soon!"
What could possibly be the reason they wouldn't support webkit based browsers?
Safari 7.0.2 OS 10.9.2
~~~
teleclimber
Because it uses webrtc.
[http://caniuse.com/#feat=rtcpeerconnection](http://caniuse.com/#feat=rtcpeerconnection)
------
rainmaking
Holy fucking shit this is the best thing since sliced bread. You don't know
how much I hate emailing file attachments.
~~~
szimek
Hopefully, we'll add sending files between networks pretty soon as well.
However, it's already possible with similar WebRTC based services like
[https://www.sharefest.me/](https://www.sharefest.me/) or
[https://rtccopy.com/](https://rtccopy.com/).
~~~
rainmaking
Thanks!
Ironically, most of my file emailing does in fact take place within the same
network.
~~~
nashashmi
Why no use of SMB networks? Always puzzled me.
~~~
rainmaking
Because configuring SMB on each machine is hard and takes time.
------
marquis
I opened this with the Hamachi VPN open, and suddenly could share files with
my computer on the other side of the world. I have a Mac so usually do this
via the built-in sharing but if it were Windows it's certainly easier than
messing with Samba.
------
snikch
I had a look at doing this myself recently to do iPhone -> Laptop transfers.
Does this work for mobile -> desktop? I didn't think that WebRTC was available
on mobile safari and therefore wouldn't work.
~~~
szimek
It depends on what you mean by "mobile" :) It works between Chrome on Android
and desktop. Unfortunately, Safari (neither desktop nor mobile) doesn't
support WebRTC.
~~~
dhfromkorea
This is really cool. I am curious why Chrome on iOS wasn't made available yet?
(i.e. if there was technical roadblock that made it difficult for you to do
so.)
------
nanch
Something similar (with a server in the middle) for android<->computer is EZ
Drop: [http://ez.dropper.co](http://ez.dropper.co)
~~~
abemassry
Another one with a server in the middle:
[https://wsend.net/upload](https://wsend.net/upload)
------
sfaruque
I'm getting transfer speeds of ~970KB/s (checking using iStat). Averaging
nearly 1MB/s isn't bad, but I'm curious, could this go faster?
~~~
szimek
Yeah, it probably could. I think that
[https://www.sharefest.me/](https://www.sharefest.me/) has faster transfer
speeds, especially that it allows you to download the same file from more than
one peer.
------
christiangenco
Very cool! I love the P2P aspect.
I have a similar project that drops files in your dropbox account:
[http://dbinbox.com](http://dbinbox.com)
------
rpowers
Looks like a clone of my friends page:
[http://www.sumodrop.com](http://www.sumodrop.com)
*edit: I guess 'clone' is too strong. I meant to imply it has similar functionality, not that it is carbon copied. Yes, I goofed.
~~~
szimek
Pretty cool. It does upload the files to S3 though, right?
ShareDrop in theory should be much faster (especially on local network) and
more secure, as it sends files directly between devices without any server in
the middle.
~~~
rpowers
True. I think the difference would be more obvious with popular files. Say
you're at a lecture with 400+ students around you and you want to share some
content. Hitting an S3 bucket might make more sense than handling 400+
connections locally.
------
lerxst
This is really cool!
Initially, I tried using this between a computer on my 2.4 GHz band and a
computer on my 5 GHz band, and I guess the JavaScript wasn't able to determine
the local IP addresses. However, after switching to the same frequency it
worked.
------
barbs
A cross-platform (but not web-based) open-source LAN file-transfer tool that
I've used in the past is dukto:
[https://code.google.com/p/dukto/](https://code.google.com/p/dukto/)
------
katowulf
And it uses Firebase, my favorite real-time service! Awesome stuff gents.
------
modarts
_this_ is the kind of stuff I come to HN for. Well done sir.
------
zacinbusiness
This is awesome and it makes me wonder about other potential capabilities.
Could a similar method be used to create two-way text chat, for instance?
~~~
szimek
Sure. WebRTC allows you to send any data, audio and video directly between
peers. Though to be honest there are much easier ways to create text chat.
~~~
zacinbusiness
Oh I was thinking about a collaboration scenario. Something next door to pair
programming where two people are working on a document together but just not
simultaneously.
------
thearn4
Great stuff! I'm hosting a programming meetup this friday at a coffee shop,
seems like a good opportunity to put it through it's paces.
------
widdma
This is really nicely done, but it'd be nice to have some sound and/or popup
notification when it's running in the background.
------
hmhrex
Wasn't sure if this would be useful to me without mobile support, but man, it
really saved my ass today. Thanks for this.
------
ulfw
"Please use the latest Chrome for Desktop or Android or Opera." Hm yea...
maybe not.
------
gabrielstuff
Nice one !
------
panbartek
seriously cool stuff
------
chriscareycode
It's an EmberJS app :)
~~~
szimek
Yes it is :)
------
chewbacha
wow, I'm blown away
------
rchgonzaga
awesome ... super cool !
------
est
it got my vmware IP address, not the actual one.
------
atmosx
really cool and helpful.
------
saltcookie
U all should check out [http://sumodrop.com](http://sumodrop.com)
~~~
saltcookie
it works on mobile browsers also
------
saltcookie
u guys should check out [http://sumodrop.com](http://sumodrop.com)
| {
"pile_set_name": "HackerNews"
} |
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