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2,979 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Expected efficiency gains in electric equipment are expected to be offset by the continuing penetration of new technologies and greater use of office equipment
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2,980 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In the industrial sector electricity consumption is projected to grow 14 percent annually over the forecast period stimulated by growth in industrial output of 26 percent per year
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2,981 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Industrial delivered electricity use is projected to increase by 32 percent with competition in the generation market keeping electricity prices low
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2,982 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Electricity Generating CapacityFrom 2000 to 2020 355 gigawatts of new generating capacity excluding cogenerators is expected to be needed to meet growing demand and to replace retiring units Figure 12 bringing total capacity to about 1060 gigawatts
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2,983 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Between 2000 and 2020 10 gigawatts 10 percent of current nuclear capacity and 37 gigawatts 7 percent of current fossilfueled capacity are expected to be retired nearly all before 2010
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2,984 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Of the 185 gigawatts of new capacity expected by 2010 10 percent is projected to replace retired oil and naturalgasfired steam capacity
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2,988 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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As natural gas prices rise later in the forecast new coalfired capacity is projected to become more competitive and 80 percent of the projected additions of new coalfired capacity are expected to be brought on line from 2010 to 2020
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2,990 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Competition with lowcost gasturbinebased technologies and the development of more efficient coal gasification systems have compelled vendors to standardize designs for coalfired plants in efforts to reduce capital and operating costs in order to maintain a share of the market
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2,991 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Renewable technologies account for 3 percent of expected capacity expansion by 2020primarily wind geothermal and municipal solid waste units
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2,992 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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About 19 gigawatts of distributed generation capacity is projected to be added by 2020 as well as a small amount less than 1 gigawatt of fuel cell capacity
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2,993 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In addition to building new capacity electricity generators are expected to use other options to meet demand growthmaintenance of existing plants power imports from Canada and Mexico and purchases from cogenerators
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2,994 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Electricity GenerationAs they have since early in this century coalfired power plants are expected to remain the key source of electricity through 2020 Figure 13
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2,995 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In 2000 coal accounted for 1968 billion kilowatthours or 52 percent of total generation including cogeneration
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2,997 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Concerns about the environmental impacts of coal plants their relatively long construction lead times and the availability of economical natural gas make it unlikely that many new coal plants will be built before about 2005
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2,998 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Nevertheless slow growth in other generating capacity the huge investment in existing plants and increasing utilization of those plants are expected to keep coal in its dominant position
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3,001 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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As a result by 2004 natural gas is expected to overtake nuclear power as the Nations secondlargest source of electricity
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3,003 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Natural Gas PricesFrom 1995 to 2000 the wellhead price of natural gas averaged 238 per thousand cubic feet 2000 dollars
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3,005 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Increasing prices reflect the rising demand for natural gas the progression of the discovery process from larger shallower and more profitable fields to smaller deeper and less profitable ones and increasing production from higher cost sources such as unconventional natural gas
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3,007 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Technically recoverable gas resources are expected to remain more than adequate to meet the projected production increases
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3,008 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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The price increases are expected to be tempered by technological progress in both discovering and producing natural gas
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3,009 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Longterm enduse prices for natural gas are projected to be lower than the relatively high prices experienced in 2000 and 2001
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3,015 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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The industrial and electricity generation sectors have the lowest enduse prices in part because they receive most of their natural gas directly from interstate pipelines avoiding local distribution charges
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3,016 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Summerpeaking electricity generators reduce their transmission costs by using lower cost interruptible transportation rates during the summer when spare pipeline capacity is available however as electricity generators take an increasing share of the market they are expected to rely on higher cost firm transportation to a greater extent
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3,017 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Prices of natural gas for the industrial and electricity generation sectors are projected to reach 401 and 394 respectively by 2020
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3,018 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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The highest enduse prices are expected for compressed natural gas vehicles because the costs of additional infrastructure requirements are expected to be added to pipeline and distribution rates
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3,019 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Natural Gas Production and ImportsGrowth in domestic natural gas production of 94 trillion cubic feet between 2000 and 2020 is expected to come primarily from lower 48 onshore nonassociated NA sources Figure 16
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3,020 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Conventional onshore natural gas production is projected to grow rapidly in the last 10 years of the forecast increasing its share of total lower 48 production from 37 percent in 2000 to 39 percent in 2020
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3,021 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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As a result of technological improvements production from unconventional sources tight sands shale and coalbed methane is projected to increase more rapidly
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3,022 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Unconventional natural gas production is projected to increase from 25 percent of total lower 48 production in 2000 to 32 percent in 2020
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3,023 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Production of associateddissolved AD natural gas from lower 48 crude oil reserves declines slightly in the projections following the expected pattern of crude oil production
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3,024 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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AD natural gas is projected to account for 9 percent of lower 48 natural gas production in 2020 compared with 16 percent in 2000
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3,025 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Offshore production is expected to increase less rapidly accounting for 24 percent of total lower 48 gas production in 2020
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3,027 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Alaskan natural gas production is projected to grow by 17 percent per year through 2020 to meet expected State demand
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3,028 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Options for marketing the gas outside Alaska include transportation through a pipeline conversion to liquefied natural gas LNG and conversion to synthetic petroleum products
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3,029 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Imports of natural gas make up the difference between US production and consumption Figure 17
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3,034 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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LNG imports are expected to increase but they are not expected to become a major source of US supply through 2020
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3,035 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Two LNG import facilities at Cove Point Maryland and Elba Island Georgia have been closed for many years but are expected to reopen by 2002
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3,037 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Although Mexico has a considerable natural gas resource base trade with Mexico has until recently consisted primarily of exports from the United States
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3,038 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Mexico is projected to remain a net importer of US natural gas through 2020 however US exports are expected to peak in 2015 and then decline as the infrastructure is developed for Mexican natural gas to meet indigenous demand
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3,039 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Natural Gas ConsumptionTotal natural gas consumption is projected to reach 338 trillion cubic feet by 2020
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3,040 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Increasing demand by electricity generators excluding cogenerators is expected to account for 55 percent of the total consumption growth by 2020 Figure 18
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3,042 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Most new electricity generation capacity is expected to be fueled by natural gas and natural gas consumption in the electricity sector is projected to grow rapidly throughout the forecast as electricity consumption increases
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3,043 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In the reference case natural gas consumption for electricity generation excluding cogeneration is projected to increase from 42 trillion cubic feet per year in 2000 to 103 trillion cubic feet per year in 2020 an average annual growth rate of 45 percent
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3,044 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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At the end of the forecast period electricity generation is expected to surpass the industrial sector as the largest consumer of natural gas
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3,045 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Although coal prices to the electricity generation sector are generally projected to fall throughout the forecast naturalgasfired electricity generators are expected to have advantages over coalfired generators including lower capital costs higher fuel efficiency shorter construction lead times and lower emissions
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3,046 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Although more than half the increase in natural gas consumption between 2000 to 2020 is expected in the East the Westincluding Canadian imports and most of the Gulf Offshoreis expected to provide approximately 80 percent of the incremental lower 48 natural gas supply in the reference case
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3,047 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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As a result most new natural gas pipelines are expected to be built from the West to the East
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3,048 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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The exception is expected new pipeline capacity originating in Canada and the Rocky Mountains which will be needed to meet growth in natural gas consumption along the Pacific Coast
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3,049 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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conclusion The collapse of Enron Corporation while detrimental to the employees and shareholders of the company has not had a noticeable impact on energy markets especially those for electricity and natural gas to date
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3,050 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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An examination of wholesale price data for both electricity and natural gas indicates that during the same period that Enron stock was declining from over 37 to less than 1 a share spot prices for electricity and natural gas were relatively stable showing normal fluctuations related to supply and demand
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3,051 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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It is not expected that the Enron situation will have any lasting impact on future electricity and natural gas markets either in the short term or through 2020
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3,052 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Electricity prices are expected to remain fairly stable over the next couple of years with a slight decline through about 2010 due to the effects of competition and falling coal prices before rising again through 2020 because of rising natural gas prices
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3,053 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Natural gas prices which were highly volatile during much of 2000 and 2001 are expected to be lower in 2002 before rising about 050 per thousand cubic feet at the wellhead in 2003
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3,054 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In the long term natural gas prices are expected to increase from current levels reaching 326 per thousand cubic feet real 2000 dollars by 2020
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3,061 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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I mean it is important to put that into the record that those are the facts and that is not rhetoric but that is what is really happening in the energy market and I appreciate you being here to put that into the record
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3,076 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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No State has a greater interest in the success of competitive electricity markets than Maine
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3,079 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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First Maine cut the regulatory link between electricity supply and delivery by requiring our utilities to divest themselves completely of generation
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3,080 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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We did so because we believe that competition in the electricity markets is likely to be fairest and most robust when the transmission and distribution utility has no reason to favor any one competitor over any other
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3,082 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Even Maines standard offer the product for people who do not contract directly with energy suppliers is priced by competitive bid rather than regulatory or legislative directive
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3,084 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Fortyfour percent of the total electric load in Maine is served through bilateral contracts between retail customers and suppliers
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3,087 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Accordingly we have worked hard to ensure that the wholesale market reflects the economics of supply and demand and does not provide either inadequate incentives for efficient investment or opportunities for gaming and the exercises of market power
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3,091 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Supply continued without discernible disruption and because of very careful management particularly by the New England independent system operator and participants in the New England power pool we saw little instability in the trading market
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3,098 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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These contracts remain valuable assets of the bankrupt entity because most if not all of these contracts are profitable for Enron in todays electricity market
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3,099 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Virtually all of the contracts were signed at the time of higher electricity prices in the region and required customers to pay a higher price than the current market price
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3,101 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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We escaped for the simple reason that when Enron fell energy supplies were high and energy prices low
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3,102 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Had Enron collapsed in a period of rising energy prices customers would have been exposed to enormous market risks
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3,105 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Our fundamental concern is that the risks in the energy market are asymmetrical
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3,106 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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If a customer signs a contract with an energy supplier and market prices fall the customer is stuck with paying the now higher than market price for its energy
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3,109 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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On the other hand if a customer has a contract with an energy supplier and market prices rise and the supplier for whatever reason defaults on the contract the customer must buy new supply in the high priced energy market and take their place in line with all of the other creditors with frankly little hope that the protections that the customer negotiated in the supply contract will provide sufficient relief
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3,110 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Maine tries to minimize such risks that the States standard offers electricity customers by requiring licensed suppliers to provide evidence of their financial soundness either by posting a substantial bond or providing us a corporate guarantee that the supplier will meet its obligations
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3,114 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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I remain convinced that a wellstructured and genuinely competitive electricity market can bring substantial benefits to consumers and investors alike
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3,118 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Competition and larger regional electricity markets are increasingly recognized as superior to traditional regulation as a way of creating incentives for investment disciplining prices and ensuring a robust and secure infrastructure
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3,120 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Energy providers consumers and investors very much need national reforms that will restore confidence in markets and by themselves States cannot protect against incompetence or purposeful cheating by a major national player
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3,126 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Customers in electricity markets should of course be subject to the normal competitive risks of price fluctuations due to changes in supply and demand
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3,132 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Thank you for this opportunity to report to the Subcommittee on the effects of the Enron Corporations recent decline on the electricity market in Maine and New England
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3,134 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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To aid the Subcommittees work on restructuring the electricity industry I have brought copies of the Maine Commissions very recent Report on Restructuring in our state
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3,136 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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No state has a greater interest in the success of the wholesale electricity markets than Maine
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3,138 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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As much as any jurisdiction Maine cut the regulatory tie between electricity supply and delivery by requiring its utilities to completely divest themselves of generation
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3,139 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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We did so because we believe that competition in electricity markets is likely to be fairest and most robust when the transmission and distribution utility the TD utility has no reason to favor any one competitor over any other
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3,140 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Apparently energy companies agree currently 14 of them have competed and won customers in Maine including Enron whichby our best estimatesserves fully one quarter an estimated 450 megawatts of Maines loador at least it did so prior to its recent troubles
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3,141 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Maines interest in the success of the wholesale electricity markets is further rooted in our decision to forego artificial pricecontrolling devices such as price caps or long term fixed supply contracts that insulate consumers from the prices revealed in the wholesale markets even Maines Standard Offer default or provider of last resort supply is provided at prices that are set by competitive bid
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3,142 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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The effect of Maines approach to restructuring has been dramaticbullet the incumbent investorowned utilities nolonger supply generation servicebullet virtually all of Maines generation is supplied by competitive suppliers andbullet 44 percent of the total electric load in Maine has departed the standard offer the provider of last resort and is served by retail suppliers
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3,145 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Accordingly we have worked hard to ensure that the wholesale market reflects the economics of supply and demand and does not provide either inadequate incentives for efficient investment or opportunities for gaming and the exercise of market power
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3,150 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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And because of very careful management particularly by the ISONew England and participants in the New England Power Pool NEPOOL there was little instability in the markets and apparently no major financial losses
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3,157 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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And in this environment the stressed and ultimately bankrupt Enron continuedand continuesto meet its contractual supply obligations mostif not allof which were profitable in todays energy market
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3,159 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Nevertheless companies who owned the generators fearing that Enron might not pay for its power purchases opted out of contracts when possible and instead sold into the spot market
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3,160 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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NEPOOLs old financial assurance policies allowed the organization to rescind membership in the Pool but did not allow NEPOOL to cut off a company from trading in the energy markets in response to a situation like that posed by Enron
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3,168 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In lieu of the 30day settlement process accorded healthy energy trading companies Enron negotiated a new 3dayrollingaverage payment arrangement with the Pool administered by the ISO
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3,181 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Had the same set of events occurred against a backdrop of rising energy prices suppliers would have had an extraordinary incentive to escape their obligations
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3,186 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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For ratepayers there is a certain heads you win tails I lose aspect to the energy market
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3,187 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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If a customer signs a contract with an energy supplier and market prices fall the customer is stuck with paying the now higherthanmarket price for its energy
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3,189 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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But if a customer has a contract with an energy supplier market prices rise and the supplier for whatever reason goes bankrupt and defaults on the contract the customer must buy new supply in the highpriced energy market and take its place in line with all the other creditors with little hope that the protections the customer negotiated in its supply contract will provide sufficient relief
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3,190 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Maine tries to minimize such risk to the states Standard Offer electricity customers by requiring licensed suppliers to provide evidence of their financial soundness either by posting a substantial bond or in the case of companies whose guaranteeing parent has a minimum credit rating of BBB or equivalent by providing us a corporate guarantee that the supplier will meet its obligations
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3,192 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Reportedly Enron had purchased surety bonds to guarantee billions of dollars of natural gas and crude oil to two offshore companies
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3,198 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Energy market prices may reflect these additional cost burdens
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3,199 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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In conclusion wellstructured well functioning energy markets can bring substantial benefits to consumers and opportunity to ethical well run businesses and strengthen the U S economy
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3,202 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Absent the latter competitive energy providers will not enjoy the confidence of investors hence their financial support or other players in the market making it harder for them to bring valuable products to the market
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3,203 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Energy providers consumers and investors very much need reforms that will restore confidence in markets
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3,216 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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Actually in September before Enron ever came up this issue was raised at the Commission and we put out in the context of a broader rulemaking that we have now pending whether the codes of conduct that applied to corporate affiliates such as between Enron Pipeline and Enron the gas trading company whether that same type of reporting requirement and those prohibitions that we have should apply also to Enron online which is in effect an extension a marketing extension so to speak of Enrons competitive sales activities
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3,234 | 2002-02-13T00:00:00 |
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The stockmarket is different from the energy market and as you characterized the trades on the exchange are between individual members of that exchange typically and the exchange itself is not a party to those trades
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