In Cambridge Advanced Grammar in Use we read:

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> We use **should have + past participle** to talk about an expectation that something happened , has happened or will happen.[page 40, Unit 20]
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2. > 
> We use **Must have + PP** to draw a conclusion about something happened in the past [page 36, Unit 18].
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I dont understand the difference between the "**drawing a conclusion**", and "**predicting/forecasting/guessing an occurrence**"

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Consider :

John isn't home yet. He -------------------have got in trouble.

Is there any difference if we use **Should** instead of **Must** and vice versa ?