---
layout: post
title: Grace, Math, & Science
tags:
    - politics
published: true
---

A friend of mine recently lost his father to COVID-19. When his wife
lamented people not taking COVID-19 seriously, another friend, who
does not take COVID-19 seriously, replied, "There are more than
600,000 deaths from the flu each year, but the news doesn't tell you
to be afraid of the flu." This interaction was via social media.

How are we to interpret this interaction? What is the responder trying
to communicate? What reply, if any, should we make?

My first suggestion would be to respond with grace. Presume the
responder is having a bad day. This pandemic has brought many people
to the brink, and some days are worse than others. Acknowledge that
before anything else.

Once grace has been given, respond dispassionately with math and
science. The actual estimate of flu-related deaths per year by the WHO
is 650,000. We recently passed 1 million deaths from COVID-19 in the
past nine months. Currently there are about 5,000 deaths per day
globally. That rate has been relatively steady for the last several
months. Assuming that rate continues to the end of the year, there
will be another 460,000 deaths before the year ends. Thus, while the
flu accounts for 650,000 per year, COVID-19 will account for nearly
1.5 million. Remember also that these are based on _confirmed_
numbers, the actual numbers are almost certainly higher.

The total deaths from the flu per year in the United States is about
65,000. The United States recently passed 200,000 deaths from
COVID-19. This total covers the past seven months. Currently there are
about 750 deaths per day in the United States from COVID-19. The best
estimates for widespread vaccine penetration in the United States is
late first quarter into second quarter of 2021, so we will likely see
this rate of deaths for the next five months. That will result in an
additional 70,000 deaths, bringing the total to 270,000, or over four
times more per year than the flu. It is worth noting that the United
States has about 10% of the total flu deaths per year but currently
has about 20% of the deaths from COVID-19. The United States has the
highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the world, both in
absolute numbers and per capita.

So it is not the news that causes us to fear COVID-19, it is our
understanding of math and science that leads us to not fear, but take
this pandemic seriously. It is our beliefs that others have as much
value as we do that we choose to sacrifice our convenience for the
health and lives of others.

Add Grace, Math, & Science
Add Grace, Math, & Science
